Sample records for early warning sign

  1. Early Warning Signs. A Solution-Finding Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sullivan, Robert, Comp.

    2017-01-01

    This Solution-Finding Report provides information, requested by Tara Zuber with the Great Lakes Comprehensive Center (GLCC) at American Institutes for Research (AIR), for resources with evidence-based practices that look at the social and emotional causes that impact the lack of student learning and engagement, for GLCC's Early Warning Signs work.…

  2. Knowledge of stroke risk factors and early warning signs of stroke among students enrolled in allied health programs: a pilot study.

    PubMed

    Milner, Abby; Lewis, William J; Ellis, Charles

    2008-01-01

    The inclusion of stroke education modules early in medical school curricula has resulted in improved stroke knowledge in graduate physicians. The success of these programs suggests that allied health professions programs should also consider strategies to improve stroke knowledge in students preparing for allied health careers that also require knowledge of stroke risk factors and early warning signs. Currently, little is known about stroke knowledge in students enrolled in allied health professions programs. 208 first- and second-year students enrolled in allied health programs completed a survey of stroke risk factors and early warning signs of stroke. Risk factor knowledge - 99% identified smoking as a risk factor; 67% identified diabetes; 93% identified high cholesterol; 89% identified age; and 92% identified physical inactivity. Less than 50% of the students identified all 5 risk factors. There were no differences between first- and second-year students in risk factor knowledge. Early warning signs and first response knowledge - 89% recognized sudden confusion or trouble speaking; 94% recognized sudden facial, arm, or leg weakness; 65% recognized sudden vision loss; 82% recognized sudden trouble walking; and 73% recognized sudden headache as early warning signs of stroke. Eighty-one percent recognized calling 9-1-1 as the appropriate first action. However, only 25% recognized all five early warning signs and only 20% recognized all five early warning signs and would call 9-1-1 as the first action. There were differences between first- and second-year students in recognizing 3 of 5 early warning signs and appropriate first action to call 9-1-1. Most students recognized individual stroke risk factors and early warning signs but few recognized multiple risk factors and early warning signs of stroke.

  3. Nipple Discharge: An Early Warning Sign of Breast Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Parthasarathy, Veda; Rathnam, Usharani

    2012-01-01

    Nipple discharge (ND) can be the earliest presenting symptom of breast cancer. We hereby present two cases of breast cancer with no palpable mass manifesting as isolated ND, which was whitish in color. In both cases, cytology of the discharge revealed highly pleomorphic cells indicating a high grade malignancy. Mammography showed diffuse, extensive microcalcifications. Simple mastectomy with axillary clearance was done. Histology in both cases revealed diffusely spreading intraductal carcinoma, with focus of microinvasion in one case. ND if scanty or not blood stained is often ignored by the patients and at times, the clinicians. This article highlights that ND can be an early warning sign of intraductal carcinomas that are non-invasive in early stage. Irrespective of the color or nature of the discharge, unilateral ND needs to be evaluated. Proper clinical assessment, cytological evaluation of the ND, and mammography ought to be performed in all such cases. Considering the low level of awareness in women regarding the warning signs of breast cancer, the current focus is to create “breast awareness.” Women should be sensitized to recognize any unusual changes in their breasts and report to their health care providers at the earliest. PMID:23189234

  4. Warning Signs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Our Children, 1999

    1999-01-01

    Presents various signs that may indicate emotional problems in children or teens, noting that if children exhibit any of the warning signs, it is important to talk to a doctor, counselor, or mental-health professional. The warning signs are categorized as things that trouble the child, things that limit the child, behavior problems, and sudden…

  5. Warning Signs After Birth

    MedlinePlus

    ... Home > Pregnancy > Postpartum care > Warning signs after birth Warning signs after birth E-mail to a friend ... breast infection Postpartum bleeding Postpartum depression (PPD) What warning signs should you look for? Call your provider ...

  6. An exploration of public knowledge of warning signs for cancer.

    PubMed

    Keeney, Sinead; McKenna, Hugh; Fleming, Paul; McIlfatrick, Sonja

    2011-02-01

    Warning signs of cancer have long been used as an effective way to summarise and communicate early indications of cancer to the public. Given the increasing global burden of cancer, the communication of these warning signs to the public is more important than ever before. This paper presents part of a larger study which explored the attitudes, knowledge and behaviours of people in mid-life towards cancer prevention. The focus of this paper is on the assessment of the knowledge of members of the public aged between 35 and 54 years of age. A questionnaire was administered to a representative sample of the population listing 17 warning signs of cancer. These included the correct warning signs and distracter signs. Respondents were asked to correctly identify the seven warning signs. Findings show that respondents could identify 4.8 cancer warning signs correctly. Analysis by demographics shows that being female, being older, having a higher level of educational attainment and being in a higher socio-economic group are predictors of better level of knowledge of cancer warning signs. Recommendations are proffered with regard to better targeting, clarification and communication of cancer warning signs. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Warning Signs of Bullying

    MedlinePlus

    ... of Aggressive Behavior Print Share Warning Signs for Bullying There are many warning signs that may indicate ... Get help right away . Signs a Child is Bullying Others Kids may be bullying others if they: ...

  8. Warning Signs of Childhood Emergencies

    MedlinePlus

    ... Health & Safety Tips » Warning Signs of Childhood Emergencies Warning Signs of Childhood Emergencies Because their bodies are ... if your child exhibits any of the following warning signs of a medical emergency: Any significant change ...

  9. [Early warning signs of severe preeclampsia].

    PubMed

    Shi, Jun-mei; Yang, Zi; Chen, Lei; Wang, Jia-lüe

    2009-05-01

    To identify the early warning signs of severe preeclampsia (SPE). A case-control (1:2) observational study was conducted. Forty-seven pregnant women with SPE, who attended the prenatal clinics of Peking University Third Hospital regularly from Jan. 2002 to Dec. 2007, were selected as the study group, including 12 early onset and 35 late onset ones. The control group consisted of 94 healthy singleton pregnant women at the same period. Clinical data were collected and analyzed. (1) The basal body mass index (BMI) showed no difference between the study and control group [(23.27 +/- 4.31) kg/m(2) vs (21.52 +/- 3.09) kg/m(2), P > 0.05]. (2) The net increase of BMI in the study group before the onset of SPE was higher than that in the control [(5.60 +/- 2.17) kg/m(2) vs (4.85 +/- 1.52) kg/m(2), P < 0.05] and the increase of BMI per week was also higher [(0.74 +/- 0.41) kg/(m(2).w)(-1) vs (0.23 +/- 0.18) kg/(m(2).w)(-1), P < 0.01]. The sensitivity and specificity of BMI increase per week in predicting SPE was 84% and 81% at a cut-off value of 0.39 kg/(m(2).w)(-1), respectively, and 79% and 91% at 0.41 kg/(m(2).w)(-1) correspondingly. (3) During the third trimester and before the onset of SPE, the weight gain per week in the study group was higher than that of the control [(0.93 +/- 0.70) kg vs (0.63 +/- 0.20) kg, P < 0.01]. Significant difference was also found in the net weight gain between the two groups (P < 0.01), but not in the percentage of women with excessive weight gain (> 0.50 kg/w) [60% (25/42) in the study group vs 63% (53/84) in the control group, P > 0.05]. (4) Higher percentage of women experienced pre-hypertension in the study group than in the controls [17% (8/47) vs 5% (5/94), P < 0.01]. (5) In the study group, 53% (25/47) of the women had edema before SPE onset, but the figure dropped to 18% (17/94) in the controls (P < 0.01). (6) Eight women in the study group and one in the control group suffered from hypoproteinemia before SPE onset with the average

  10. Effects of stressor characteristics on early warning signs of critical transitions and "critical coupling" in complex dynamical systems.

    PubMed

    Blume, Steffen O P; Sansavini, Giovanni

    2017-12-01

    Complex dynamical systems face abrupt transitions into unstable and catastrophic regimes. These critical transitions are triggered by gradual modifications in stressors, which push the dynamical system towards unstable regimes. Bifurcation analysis can characterize such critical thresholds, beyond which systems become unstable. Moreover, the stochasticity of the external stressors causes small-scale fluctuations in the system response. In some systems, the decomposition of these signal fluctuations into precursor signals can reveal early warning signs prior to the critical transition. Here, we present a dynamical analysis of a power system subjected to an increasing load level and small-scale stochastic load perturbations. We show that the auto- and cross-correlations of bus voltage magnitudes increase, leading up to a Hopf bifurcation point, and further grow until the system collapses. This evidences a gradual transition into a state of "critical coupling," which is complementary to the established concept of "critical slowing down." Furthermore, we analyze the effects of the type of load perturbation and load characteristics on early warning signs and find that gradient changes in the autocorrelation provide early warning signs of the imminent critical transition under white-noise but not for auto-correlated load perturbations. Furthermore, the cross-correlation between all voltage magnitude pairs generally increases prior to and beyond the Hopf bifurcation point, indicating "critical coupling," but cannot provide early warning indications. Finally, we show that the established early warning indicators are oblivious to limit-induced bifurcations and, in the case of the power system model considered here, only react to an approaching Hopf bifurcation.

  11. 7 Warning Signs of Alzheimer's | Alzheimer's disease | NIH MedlinePlus the Magazine

    MedlinePlus

    ... please turn Javascript on. Feature: Alzheimer's Disease 7 Warning Signs of Alzheimer's Past Issues / Fall 2010 Table ... is to alert the public to the early warning signs of Alzheimer's disease. If someone has several ...

  12. 46 CFR 154.1830 - Warning sign.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 5 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Warning sign. 154.1830 Section 154.1830 Shipping COAST... SELF-PROPELLED VESSELS CARRYING BULK LIQUEFIED GASES Operations § 154.1830 Warning sign. (a) The master... a warning sign: (1) At the gangway facing the shore so that the sign may be seen from the shore; and...

  13. 46 CFR 154.1830 - Warning sign.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning sign. 154.1830 Section 154.1830 Shipping COAST... SELF-PROPELLED VESSELS CARRYING BULK LIQUEFIED GASES Operations § 154.1830 Warning sign. (a) The master... a warning sign: (1) At the gangway facing the shore so that the sign may be seen from the shore; and...

  14. 46 CFR 154.1830 - Warning sign.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 5 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Warning sign. 154.1830 Section 154.1830 Shipping COAST... SELF-PROPELLED VESSELS CARRYING BULK LIQUEFIED GASES Operations § 154.1830 Warning sign. (a) The master... a warning sign: (1) At the gangway facing the shore so that the sign may be seen from the shore; and...

  15. 46 CFR 154.1830 - Warning sign.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 5 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Warning sign. 154.1830 Section 154.1830 Shipping COAST... SELF-PROPELLED VESSELS CARRYING BULK LIQUEFIED GASES Operations § 154.1830 Warning sign. (a) The master... a warning sign: (1) At the gangway facing the shore so that the sign may be seen from the shore; and...

  16. 46 CFR 154.1830 - Warning sign.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 5 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Warning sign. 154.1830 Section 154.1830 Shipping COAST... SELF-PROPELLED VESSELS CARRYING BULK LIQUEFIED GASES Operations § 154.1830 Warning sign. (a) The master... a warning sign: (1) At the gangway facing the shore so that the sign may be seen from the shore; and...

  17. 49 CFR 193.2917 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 3 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Warning signs. 193.2917 Section 193.2917 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY...: FEDERAL SAFETY STANDARDS Security § 193.2917 Warning signs. (a) Warning signs must be conspicuously placed...

  18. 49 CFR 193.2917 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 3 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Warning signs. 193.2917 Section 193.2917 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY...: FEDERAL SAFETY STANDARDS Security § 193.2917 Warning signs. (a) Warning signs must be conspicuously placed...

  19. 49 CFR 193.2917 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 3 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Warning signs. 193.2917 Section 193.2917 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY...: FEDERAL SAFETY STANDARDS Security § 193.2917 Warning signs. (a) Warning signs must be conspicuously placed...

  20. 49 CFR 193.2917 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 3 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Warning signs. 193.2917 Section 193.2917 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY...: FEDERAL SAFETY STANDARDS Security § 193.2917 Warning signs. (a) Warning signs must be conspicuously placed...

  1. 49 CFR 193.2917 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning signs. 193.2917 Section 193.2917 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY...: FEDERAL SAFETY STANDARDS Security § 193.2917 Warning signs. (a) Warning signs must be conspicuously placed...

  2. 33 CFR 127.1113 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Warning signs. 127.1113 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Hazardous Gas Design and Construction § 127.1113 Warning signs. (a) The marine transfer area for LHG must have warning signs that— (1) Meet paragraph (b) of this section...

  3. 33 CFR 127.1113 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Warning signs. 127.1113 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Hazardous Gas Design and Construction § 127.1113 Warning signs. (a) The marine transfer area for LHG must have warning signs that— (1) Meet paragraph (b) of this section...

  4. 33 CFR 127.1113 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Warning signs. 127.1113 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Hazardous Gas Design and Construction § 127.1113 Warning signs. (a) The marine transfer area for LHG must have warning signs that— (1) Meet paragraph (b) of this section...

  5. 33 CFR 127.1113 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Warning signs. 127.1113 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Hazardous Gas Design and Construction § 127.1113 Warning signs. (a) The marine transfer area for LHG must have warning signs that— (1) Meet paragraph (b) of this section...

  6. 33 CFR 127.1113 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Warning signs. 127.1113 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Hazardous Gas Design and Construction § 127.1113 Warning signs. (a) The marine transfer area for LHG must have warning signs that— (1) Meet paragraph (b) of this section...

  7. 33 CFR 127.113 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Warning signs. 127.113 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Natural Gas § 127.113 Warning signs. (a) The marine transfer area for LNG must have warning signs that— (1) Meet paragraph (b) of this section; (2) Can be seen from the...

  8. 33 CFR 127.113 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Warning signs. 127.113 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Natural Gas § 127.113 Warning signs. (a) The marine transfer area for LNG must have warning signs that— (1) Meet paragraph (b) of this section; (2) Can be seen from the...

  9. 33 CFR 127.113 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Warning signs. 127.113 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Natural Gas § 127.113 Warning signs. (a) The marine transfer area for LNG must have warning signs that— (1) Meet paragraph (b) of this section; (2) Can be seen from the...

  10. 33 CFR 127.113 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Warning signs. 127.113 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Natural Gas § 127.113 Warning signs. (a) The marine transfer area for LNG must have warning signs that— (1) Meet paragraph (b) of this section; (2) Can be seen from the...

  11. 33 CFR 127.113 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Warning signs. 127.113 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Natural Gas § 127.113 Warning signs. (a) The marine transfer area for LNG must have warning signs that— (1) Meet paragraph (b) of this section; (2) Can be seen from the...

  12. [Reliability and validity of warning signs checklist for screening psychological, behavioral and developmental problems of children].

    PubMed

    Huang, X N; Zhang, Y; Feng, W W; Wang, H S; Cao, B; Zhang, B; Yang, Y F; Wang, H M; Zheng, Y; Jin, X M; Jia, M X; Zou, X B; Zhao, C X; Robert, J; Jing, Jin

    2017-06-02

    Objective: To evaluate the reliability and validity of warning signs checklist developed by the National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People's Republic of China (NHFPC), so as to determine the screening effectiveness of warning signs on developmental problems of early childhood. Method: Stratified random sampling method was used to assess the reliability and validity of checklist of warning sign and 2 110 children 0 to 6 years of age(1 513 low-risk subjects and 597 high-risk subjects) were recruited from 11 provinces of China. The reliability evaluation for the warning signs included the test-retest reliability and interrater reliability. With the use of Age and Stage Questionnaire (ASQ) and Gesell Development Diagnosis Scale (GESELL) as the criterion scales, criterion validity was assessed by determining the correlation and consistency between the screening results of warning signs and the criterion scales. Result: In terms of the warning signs, the screening positive rates at different ages ranged from 10.8%(21/141) to 26.2%(51/137). The median (interquartile) testing time for each subject was 1(0.6) minute. Both the test-retest reliability and interrater reliability of warning signs reached 0.7 or above, indicating that the stability was good. In terms of validity assessment, there was remarkable consistency between ASQ and warning signs, with the Kappa value of 0.63. With the use of GESELL as criterion, it was determined that the sensitivity of warning signs in children with suspected developmental delay was 82.2%, and the specificity was 77.7%. The overall Youden index was 0.6. Conclusion: The reliability and validity of warning signs checklist for screening early childhood developmental problems have met the basic requirements of psychological screening scales, with the characteristics of short testing time and easy operation. Thus, this warning signs checklist can be used for screening psychological and behavioral problems of early childhood

  13. 30 CFR 57.4101 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Warning signs. 57.4101 Section 57.4101 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR METAL AND NONMETAL MINE SAFETY AND... Prohibitions/precautions/housekeeping § 57.4101 Warning signs. Readily visible signs prohibiting smoking and...

  14. 30 CFR 56.4101 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Warning signs. 56.4101 Section 56.4101 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR METAL AND NONMETAL MINE SAFETY AND... Prohibitions/precautions/housekeeping § 56.4101 Warning signs. Readily visible signs prohibiting smoking and...

  15. 30 CFR 57.4101 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Warning signs. 57.4101 Section 57.4101 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR METAL AND NONMETAL MINE SAFETY AND... Prohibitions/precautions/housekeeping § 57.4101 Warning signs. Readily visible signs prohibiting smoking and...

  16. 30 CFR 57.4101 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Warning signs. 57.4101 Section 57.4101 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR METAL AND NONMETAL MINE SAFETY AND... Prohibitions/precautions/housekeeping § 57.4101 Warning signs. Readily visible signs prohibiting smoking and...

  17. 30 CFR 56.4101 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Warning signs. 56.4101 Section 56.4101 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR METAL AND NONMETAL MINE SAFETY AND... Prohibitions/precautions/housekeeping § 56.4101 Warning signs. Readily visible signs prohibiting smoking and...

  18. 30 CFR 56.4101 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Warning signs. 56.4101 Section 56.4101 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR METAL AND NONMETAL MINE SAFETY AND... Prohibitions/precautions/housekeeping § 56.4101 Warning signs. Readily visible signs prohibiting smoking and...

  19. 30 CFR 57.4101 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Warning signs. 57.4101 Section 57.4101 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR METAL AND NONMETAL MINE SAFETY AND... Prohibitions/precautions/housekeeping § 57.4101 Warning signs. Readily visible signs prohibiting smoking and...

  20. 30 CFR 56.4101 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Warning signs. 56.4101 Section 56.4101 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR METAL AND NONMETAL MINE SAFETY AND... Prohibitions/precautions/housekeeping § 56.4101 Warning signs. Readily visible signs prohibiting smoking and...

  1. Implementation and evaluation of early gastroscopy for patients with dyspepsia and warning signs in Primary Care.

    PubMed

    García-Alonso, Francisco Javier; Hernández Tejero, María; Rubio Benito, Elvira; Valer, Paz; Guerra, Iván; García Ceballos, Victoria Gema; Noguerol, Mar; Llinares, Victoria; Bermejo, Fernando

    2017-05-01

    Dyspepsia is a common disorder in both Primary (PC) and Specialised Care (SC). Gastroscopy is recommended at the start of the study if there are warning signs, although it is not always available in PC. We developed a pilot project establishing an early gastroscopy programme for patients with dyspepsia and warning signs in PC, subsequently extending it to the entire healthcare area. The aim was to evaluate the requirements, impact and opinion of this service at the PC level. Demographic, symptomatic and endoscopic variables on the patients referred to SC from the pilot centre were recorded. A satisfaction survey was conducted among the PC physicians. The one-year pilot study and the first year of implementation of the programme were evaluated. A total of 355 patients were included (median age 56.4 years; IQR 45.5-64.3); 61.2% (56.1-66.3%) were women. The waiting time for examination was 1.5 weeks (IQR 1.5-2.5). Gastroscopy was correctly indicated in 82.7% (78.4-86.3%) of patients. The median number of requests per month was 1.1 per 10,000 adults (range 0.8-1.6). Monthly referrals to SC clinics from the pilot centre fell by 11 subjects (95% CI 5.9-16) with respect to the previous median of 58 (IQR 48-64.5). Almost all those polled (98.4%) considered the programme useful in routine practice. The availability of an early gastroscopy programme in PC for patients with dyspepsia and warning signs reduced the number of referrals to SC. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U., AEEH y AEG. All rights reserved.

  2. 30 CFR 56.20011 - Barricades and warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Barricades and warning signs. 56.20011 Section... § 56.20011 Barricades and warning signs. Areas where health or safety hazards exist that are not immediately obvious to employees shall be barricaded, or warning signs shall be posted at all approaches...

  3. 30 CFR 56.20011 - Barricades and warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Barricades and warning signs. 56.20011 Section... § 56.20011 Barricades and warning signs. Areas where health or safety hazards exist that are not immediately obvious to employees shall be barricaded, or warning signs shall be posted at all approaches...

  4. 30 CFR 56.20011 - Barricades and warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Barricades and warning signs. 56.20011 Section... § 56.20011 Barricades and warning signs. Areas where health or safety hazards exist that are not immediately obvious to employees shall be barricaded, or warning signs shall be posted at all approaches...

  5. 30 CFR 56.20011 - Barricades and warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Barricades and warning signs. 56.20011 Section... § 56.20011 Barricades and warning signs. Areas where health or safety hazards exist that are not immediately obvious to employees shall be barricaded, or warning signs shall be posted at all approaches...

  6. 30 CFR 56.20011 - Barricades and warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Barricades and warning signs. 56.20011 Section... § 56.20011 Barricades and warning signs. Areas where health or safety hazards exist that are not immediately obvious to employees shall be barricaded, or warning signs shall be posted at all approaches...

  7. 30 CFR 57.20011 - Barricades and warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Barricades and warning signs. 57.20011 Section... Miscellaneous § 57.20011 Barricades and warning signs. Areas where health or safety hazards exist that are not immediately obvious to employees shall be barricaded, or warning signs shall be posted at all approaches...

  8. 30 CFR 57.20011 - Barricades and warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Barricades and warning signs. 57.20011 Section... Miscellaneous § 57.20011 Barricades and warning signs. Areas where health or safety hazards exist that are not immediately obvious to employees shall be barricaded, or warning signs shall be posted at all approaches...

  9. 30 CFR 57.20011 - Barricades and warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Barricades and warning signs. 57.20011 Section... Miscellaneous § 57.20011 Barricades and warning signs. Areas where health or safety hazards exist that are not immediately obvious to employees shall be barricaded, or warning signs shall be posted at all approaches...

  10. 30 CFR 57.20011 - Barricades and warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Barricades and warning signs. 57.20011 Section... Miscellaneous § 57.20011 Barricades and warning signs. Areas where health or safety hazards exist that are not immediately obvious to employees shall be barricaded, or warning signs shall be posted at all approaches...

  11. 30 CFR 57.20011 - Barricades and warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Barricades and warning signs. 57.20011 Section... Miscellaneous § 57.20011 Barricades and warning signs. Areas where health or safety hazards exist that are not immediately obvious to employees shall be barricaded, or warning signs shall be posted at all approaches...

  12. Awareness of risk factors and warning signs of stroke in a Nigeria university.

    PubMed

    Obembe, Adebimpe O; Olaogun, Matthew O; Bamikole, Adesola A; Komolafe, Morenikeji A; Odetunde, Marufat O

    2014-04-01

    Rapid access to medical services which is an important predictor of treatment and rehabilitation outcome requires that there is an understanding of stroke risk factors and early warning signs. This study assessed awareness of stroke risk factors and warning signs among students and staff of Obafemi Awolowo University, Nigeria. This was a cross sectional survey involving 994 (500 students and 494 staff) respondents. Information on the awareness of stroke risk factors and warning signs was collected with the aid of a structured questionnaire. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used for data analysis. Weakness (66.2%) was the most commonly identified warning sign of stroke with more staff (69.8%) identifying correctly than students (62.6%). Hypertension (83.4%) was the most commonly identified stroke risk factor, with more staff (91.7%) identifying correctly than students (83.2%). There were significant differences (p < 0.05) in the awareness of some risk factors (age, hypertension, stress and obesity), and warning signs (dizziness, numbness, weakness, headache and vision problems) between students and staff. Predictors for adequate awareness of both stroke risk factors and warning signs were younger age, smoking history and higher educational level. Majority of the respondents recognized individual important stroke risk factors and warning signs, but few recognized multiple stroke risk factors and warning signs. Awareness programs on stroke should be organized, even in communities with educated people to increase public awareness on the prevention of stroke and on the reduction of morbidity in the survivors. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. 29 CFR 1915.16 - Warning signs and labels.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 7 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Warning signs and labels. 1915.16 Section 1915.16 Labor... Other Dangerous Atmospheres in Shipyard Employment § 1915.16 Warning signs and labels. (a) Employee...) Posting of large work areas. A warning sign or label required by paragraph (a) of this section need not be...

  14. 29 CFR 1915.16 - Warning signs and labels.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 7 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Warning signs and labels. 1915.16 Section 1915.16 Labor... Other Dangerous Atmospheres in Shipyard Employment § 1915.16 Warning signs and labels. (a) Employee...) Posting of large work areas. A warning sign or label required by paragraph (a) of this section need not be...

  15. 29 CFR 1915.16 - Warning signs and labels.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 7 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Warning signs and labels. 1915.16 Section 1915.16 Labor... Other Dangerous Atmospheres in Shipyard Employment § 1915.16 Warning signs and labels. (a) Employee...) Posting of large work areas. A warning sign or label required by paragraph (a) of this section need not be...

  16. 29 CFR 1915.16 - Warning signs and labels.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 7 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Warning signs and labels. 1915.16 Section 1915.16 Labor... Other Dangerous Atmospheres in Shipyard Employment § 1915.16 Warning signs and labels. (a) Employee...) Posting of large work areas. A warning sign or label required by paragraph (a) of this section need not be...

  17. 29 CFR 1915.16 - Warning signs and labels.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 7 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Warning signs and labels. 1915.16 Section 1915.16 Labor... Other Dangerous Atmospheres in Shipyard Employment § 1915.16 Warning signs and labels. (a) Employee...) Posting of large work areas. A warning sign or label required by paragraph (a) of this section need not be...

  18. Warning Signs of Heart Attack, Stroke and Cardiac Arrest

    MedlinePlus

    ... a Heart Attack WARNING SIGNS OF HEART ATTACK, STROKE & CARDIAC ARREST HEART ATTACK WARNING SIGNS CHEST DISCOMFORT ... nausea or lightheadedness. Learn more about heart attack STROKE WARNING SIGNS Spot a stroke F.A.S.T.: - ...

  19. Centile-based early warning scores derived from statistical distributions of vital signs.

    PubMed

    Tarassenko, Lionel; Clifton, David A; Pinsky, Michael R; Hravnak, Marilyn T; Woods, John R; Watkinson, Peter J

    2011-08-01

    To develop an early warning score (EWS) system based on the statistical properties of the vital signs in at-risk hospitalised patients. A large dataset comprising 64,622 h of vital-sign data, acquired from 863 acutely ill in-hospital patients using bedside monitors, was used to investigate the statistical properties of the four main vital signs. Normalised histograms and cumulative distribution functions were plotted for each of the four variables. A centile-based alerting system was modelled using the aggregated database. The means and standard deviations of our population's vital signs are very similar to those published in previous studies. When compared with EWS systems based on a future outcome, the cut-off values in our system are most different for respiratory rate and systolic blood pressure. With four-hourly observations in a 12-h shift, about 1 in 8 at-risk patients would trigger our alerting system during the shift. A centile-based EWS system will identify patients with abnormal vital signs regardless of their eventual outcome and might therefore be more likely to generate an alert when presented with patients with redeemable morbidity or avoidable mortality. We are about to start a stepped-wedge clinical trial gradually introducing an electronic version of our EWS system on the trauma wards in a teaching hospital. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Detection of the Early Warning Signs of Cancer by Community Pharmacists: An Evaluation of Training on Professional Behavior

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Benfield, William R.; And Others

    1977-01-01

    In a study of 702 pharmacists in 211 communities, an effort was made to determine the effect of a unit of education on the community pharmacist's ability and/or tendency to detect the early warning signs of cancer when manifested by patrons. The success of such a program is shown. (LBH)

  1. What Are the Warning Signs of Stroke?

    MedlinePlus

    ANSWERS by heart Cardiovascular Conditions What Are the Warning Signs of Stroke? Brain tissue affected by blockage ... risk factors. • Reduce your risk factors. • Learn the warning signs of stroke. • Know what to do if ...

  2. 33 CFR 150.622 - What are the warning sign requirements?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What are the warning sign... SECURITY (CONTINUED) DEEPWATER PORTS DEEPWATER PORTS: OPERATIONS Workplace Safety and Health Warning Signs § 150.622 What are the warning sign requirements? The construction and use of warning signs must be in...

  3. 33 CFR 150.622 - What are the warning sign requirements?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false What are the warning sign... SECURITY (CONTINUED) DEEPWATER PORTS DEEPWATER PORTS: OPERATIONS Workplace Safety and Health Warning Signs § 150.622 What are the warning sign requirements? The construction and use of warning signs must be in...

  4. 33 CFR 150.622 - What are the warning sign requirements?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false What are the warning sign... SECURITY (CONTINUED) DEEPWATER PORTS DEEPWATER PORTS: OPERATIONS Workplace Safety and Health Warning Signs § 150.622 What are the warning sign requirements? The construction and use of warning signs must be in...

  5. 33 CFR 150.622 - What are the warning sign requirements?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false What are the warning sign... SECURITY (CONTINUED) DEEPWATER PORTS DEEPWATER PORTS: OPERATIONS Workplace Safety and Health Warning Signs § 150.622 What are the warning sign requirements? The construction and use of warning signs must be in...

  6. Disparities in adult awareness of heart attack warning signs and symptoms--14 states, 2005.

    PubMed

    2008-02-22

    In 2005, approximately 920,000 persons in the United States had a myocardial infarction (i.e., heart attack); in 2004, approximately 157,000 heart attacks were fatal. One study indicated that approximately half of cardiac deaths occur within 1 hour of symptom onset, before patients reach a hospital. Timely access to emergency cardiac care, receipt of advanced treatment, and potential for surviving a heart attack all depend on 1) early recognition of warning signs and symptoms of a heart attack by persons who are having a heart attack and bystanders and 2) immediately calling 9-1-1. Healthy People 2010 includes an objective to increase from 46% to 50% the proportion of adults aged > or =20 years who are aware of the early warning signs and symptoms of a heart attack and the importance of accessing rapid emergency care by calling 9-1-1 (objective 12-2). To update estimates of public awareness of heart attack warning signs and symptoms and knowledge of the importance of calling 9-1-1, CDC analyzed 2005 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data from the 14 states that included questions on signs and symptoms of a heart attack. This report describes the results of that analysis, which indicated that although the awareness of certain individual warning signs was as high as 93% (i.e., for shortness of breath), awareness of all five warning signs was 31%, underscoring the need for public health measures to increase public awareness of heart attack warning signs and symptoms. In addition, disparities in awareness were observed by race/ethnicity, sex, and level of education, suggesting that new public health measures should target populations with the lowest levels of awareness.

  7. 46 CFR 153.955 - Warning signs during cargo transfer.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 5 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Warning signs during cargo transfer. 153.955 Section 153... Transfer Procedures § 153.955 Warning signs during cargo transfer. (a) When transferring cargo while fast to a dock or at anchor in port, the master shall ensure that the tankship displays a warning sign at...

  8. 46 CFR 153.955 - Warning signs during cargo transfer.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 5 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Warning signs during cargo transfer. 153.955 Section 153... Transfer Procedures § 153.955 Warning signs during cargo transfer. (a) When transferring cargo while fast to a dock or at anchor in port, the master shall ensure that the tankship displays a warning sign at...

  9. 46 CFR 153.955 - Warning signs during cargo transfer.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning signs during cargo transfer. 153.955 Section 153... Transfer Procedures § 153.955 Warning signs during cargo transfer. (a) When transferring cargo while fast to a dock or at anchor in port, the master shall ensure that the tankship displays a warning sign at...

  10. 46 CFR 153.955 - Warning signs during cargo transfer.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 5 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Warning signs during cargo transfer. 153.955 Section 153... Transfer Procedures § 153.955 Warning signs during cargo transfer. (a) When transferring cargo while fast to a dock or at anchor in port, the master shall ensure that the tankship displays a warning sign at...

  11. 46 CFR 153.955 - Warning signs during cargo transfer.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 5 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Warning signs during cargo transfer. 153.955 Section 153... Transfer Procedures § 153.955 Warning signs during cargo transfer. (a) When transferring cargo while fast to a dock or at anchor in port, the master shall ensure that the tankship displays a warning sign at...

  12. Assessment of advanced warning signs for flagging operations.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1999-05-01

    The Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) and several other state departments : of transportation have expressed interest in modifying the advanced warning sign for work zone : flagging operations. The advanced warning sign is intended to aler...

  13. 46 CFR 35.30-1 - Warning signals and signs-TB/ALL.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning signals and signs-TB/ALL. 35.30-1 Section 35.30... § 35.30-1 Warning signals and signs—TB/ALL. (a) Red warning signals. During transfer of bulk cargo... displayed. (b) Warning sign at gangway. A sign shall be displayed to warn persons approaching the gangway...

  14. 46 CFR 35.30-1 - Warning signals and signs-TB/ALL.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Warning signals and signs-TB/ALL. 35.30-1 Section 35.30... § 35.30-1 Warning signals and signs—TB/ALL. (a) Red warning signals. During transfer of bulk cargo... displayed. (b) Warning sign at gangway. A sign shall be displayed to warn persons approaching the gangway...

  15. 30 CFR 77.1102 - Warning signs; smoking and open flame.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Warning signs; smoking and open flame. 77.1102 Section 77.1102 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COAL MINE... COAL MINES Fire Protection § 77.1102 Warning signs; smoking and open flame. Signs warning against...

  16. 30 CFR 77.1102 - Warning signs; smoking and open flame.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Warning signs; smoking and open flame. 77.1102 Section 77.1102 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COAL MINE... COAL MINES Fire Protection § 77.1102 Warning signs; smoking and open flame. Signs warning against...

  17. 30 CFR 77.1102 - Warning signs; smoking and open flame.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Warning signs; smoking and open flame. 77.1102 Section 77.1102 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COAL MINE... COAL MINES Fire Protection § 77.1102 Warning signs; smoking and open flame. Signs warning against...

  18. 46 CFR 108.626 - Carbon dioxide warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Carbon dioxide warning signs. 108.626 Section 108.626 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) A-MOBILE OFFSHORE DRILLING UNITS DESIGN AND EQUIPMENT Equipment Markings and Instructions § 108.626 Carbon dioxide warning signs. Each...

  19. 46 CFR 131.817 - Carbon dioxide warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Carbon dioxide warning signs. 131.817 Section 131.817 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) OFFSHORE SUPPLY VESSELS OPERATIONS Markings for Fire Equipment and Emergency Equipment § 131.817 Carbon dioxide warning signs. Each entrance...

  20. 46 CFR 131.817 - Carbon dioxide warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Carbon dioxide warning signs. 131.817 Section 131.817 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) OFFSHORE SUPPLY VESSELS OPERATIONS Markings for Fire Equipment and Emergency Equipment § 131.817 Carbon dioxide warning signs. Each entrance...

  1. 46 CFR 131.817 - Carbon dioxide warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Carbon dioxide warning signs. 131.817 Section 131.817 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) OFFSHORE SUPPLY VESSELS OPERATIONS Markings for Fire Equipment and Emergency Equipment § 131.817 Carbon dioxide warning signs. Each entrance...

  2. 46 CFR 108.626 - Carbon dioxide warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Carbon dioxide warning signs. 108.626 Section 108.626 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) A-MOBILE OFFSHORE DRILLING UNITS DESIGN AND EQUIPMENT Equipment Markings and Instructions § 108.626 Carbon dioxide warning signs. Each...

  3. 46 CFR 108.626 - Carbon dioxide warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Carbon dioxide warning signs. 108.626 Section 108.626 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) A-MOBILE OFFSHORE DRILLING UNITS DESIGN AND EQUIPMENT Equipment Markings and Instructions § 108.626 Carbon dioxide warning signs. Each...

  4. 30 CFR 77.1102 - Warning signs; smoking and open flame.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Warning signs; smoking and open flame. 77.1102... COAL MINES Fire Protection § 77.1102 Warning signs; smoking and open flame. Signs warning against smoking and open flames shall be posted so they can be readily seen in areas or places where fire or...

  5. 30 CFR 77.1102 - Warning signs; smoking and open flame.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Warning signs; smoking and open flame. 77.1102... COAL MINES Fire Protection § 77.1102 Warning signs; smoking and open flame. Signs warning against smoking and open flames shall be posted so they can be readily seen in areas or places where fire or...

  6. 46 CFR 105.45-20 - Warning sign at gangway.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Warning sign at gangway. 105.45-20 Section 105.45-20... COMMERCIAL FISHING VESSELS DISPENSING PETROLEUM PRODUCTS Special Operating Requirements § 105.45-20 Warning sign at gangway. (a) Warning placards shall be kept at hand for display while a vessel is fast to a...

  7. 46 CFR 105.45-20 - Warning sign at gangway.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Warning sign at gangway. 105.45-20 Section 105.45-20... COMMERCIAL FISHING VESSELS DISPENSING PETROLEUM PRODUCTS Special Operating Requirements § 105.45-20 Warning sign at gangway. (a) Warning placards shall be kept at hand for display while a vessel is fast to a...

  8. 46 CFR 105.45-20 - Warning sign at gangway.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Warning sign at gangway. 105.45-20 Section 105.45-20... COMMERCIAL FISHING VESSELS DISPENSING PETROLEUM PRODUCTS Special Operating Requirements § 105.45-20 Warning sign at gangway. (a) Warning placards shall be kept at hand for display while a vessel is fast to a...

  9. 46 CFR 105.45-20 - Warning sign at gangway.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Warning sign at gangway. 105.45-20 Section 105.45-20... COMMERCIAL FISHING VESSELS DISPENSING PETROLEUM PRODUCTS Special Operating Requirements § 105.45-20 Warning sign at gangway. (a) Warning placards shall be kept at hand for display while a vessel is fast to a...

  10. 46 CFR 105.45-20 - Warning sign at gangway.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning sign at gangway. 105.45-20 Section 105.45-20... COMMERCIAL FISHING VESSELS DISPENSING PETROLEUM PRODUCTS Special Operating Requirements § 105.45-20 Warning sign at gangway. (a) Warning placards shall be kept at hand for display while a vessel is fast to a...

  11. 46 CFR 98.30-35 - Warning sign at gangway.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Warning sign at gangway. 98.30-35 Section 98.30-35... Intermediate Bulk Containers § 98.30-35 Warning sign at gangway. If a vessel is moored, no person may transfer... in charge displays at each gangway or access that is open for use a warning placard containing the...

  12. Sepsis in Obstetrics: Clinical Features and Early Warning Tools.

    PubMed

    Parfitt, Sheryl E; Bogat, Mary L; Hering, Sandra L; Ottley, Charlotte; Roth, Cheryl

    Morbidity and mortality associated with sepsis has gained widespread attention on a local, state, and national level, yet, it remains a complicated disorder that can be difficult to identify in a timely manner. Sepsis in obstetric patients further complicates the diagnosis as alterations in physiology related to pregnancy can mask sepsis indicators normally seen in the general population. If early signs of sepsis go unrecognized, septic shock can develop, leading to organ dysfunction and potential death. Maternal early warning tools have been designed to assist clinicians in recognizing early indications of illness. Through use of clinical pathway-specific tools, disease processes may be detected early, subsequently benefitting patients with aggressive treatment management and intervention.This article is the second in a series of three that discuss the importance of sepsis and septic shock in pregnancy. Risk factors, causes of sepsis, signs and symptoms, and maternal early warning tools are discussed.

  13. Determination of early warning signs for photocatalytic degradation of titanium white oil paints by means of surface analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Driel, B. A.; Wezendonk, T. A.; van den Berg, K. J.; Kooyman, P. J.; Gascon, J.; Dik, J.

    2017-02-01

    Titanium white (TiO2) has been widely used as a pigment in the 20th century. However, its most photocatalytic form (anatase) can cause severe degradation of the oil paint in which it is contained. UV light initiates TiO2-photocatalyzed processes in the paint film, degrading the oil binder into volatile components resulting in chalking of the paint. This will eventually lead to severe changes in the appearance of a painting. To date, limited examples of degraded works of art containing titanium white are known due to the relatively short existence of the paintings in question and the slow progress of the degradation process. However, UV light will inevitably cause degradation of paint in works of art containing photocatalytic titanium white. In this work, a method to detect early warning signs of photocatalytic degradation of unvarnished oil paint is proposed, using atomic force microscopy (AFM) and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). Consequently, a four-stage degradation model was developed through in-depth study of TiO2-containing paint films in various stages of degradation. The XPS surface analysis proved very valuable for detecting early warning signs of paint degradation, whereas the AFM results provide additional confirmation and are in good agreement with bulk gloss reduction.

  14. 46 CFR 98.30-35 - Warning sign at gangway.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning sign at gangway. 98.30-35 Section 98.30-35... Warning sign at gangway. If a vessel is moored, no person may transfer to or from a portable tank a... access that is open for use a warning placard containing the following in letters 2 inches in height or...

  15. 46 CFR 98.30-35 - Warning sign at gangway.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Warning sign at gangway. 98.30-35 Section 98.30-35... Warning sign at gangway. If a vessel is moored, no person may transfer to or from a portable tank a... access that is open for use a warning placard containing the following in letters 2 inches in height or...

  16. 46 CFR 98.30-35 - Warning sign at gangway.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Warning sign at gangway. 98.30-35 Section 98.30-35... Warning sign at gangway. If a vessel is moored, no person may transfer to or from a portable tank a... access that is open for use a warning placard containing the following in letters 2 inches in height or...

  17. 46 CFR 98.30-35 - Warning sign at gangway.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Warning sign at gangway. 98.30-35 Section 98.30-35... Warning sign at gangway. If a vessel is moored, no person may transfer to or from a portable tank a... access that is open for use a warning placard containing the following in letters 2 inches in height or...

  18. Low cancer suspicion following experience of a cancer 'warning sign'.

    PubMed

    Whitaker, Katriina L; Winstanley, Kelly; Macleod, Una; Scott, Suzanne E; Wardle, Jane

    2015-11-01

    Lower socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with a higher risk of late-stage cancer diagnosis. A number of explanations have been advanced for this, but one which has attracted recent attention is lower patient knowledge of cancer warning signs, leading to delay in help-seeking. However, although there is psychometric evidence of SES differences in knowledge of cancer symptoms, no studies have examined differences in 'cancer suspicion' among people who are actually experiencing a classic warning sign. A 'health survey' was mailed to 9771 adults (⩾50years, no cancer diagnosis) with a symptom list including 10 cancer 'warning signs'. Respondents were asked if they had experienced any of the symptoms in the past 3months, and if so, were asked 'what do you think caused it?' Any mention of cancer was scored as 'cancer suspicion'. SES was indexed by education. Nearly half the respondents (1732/3756) had experienced a 'warning sign', but only 63/1732 (3.6%) mentioned cancer as a possible cause. Lower education was associated with lower likelihood of cancer suspicion: 2.6% of respondents with school-only education versus 7.3% with university education suspected cancer as a possible cause. In multivariable analysis, low education was the only demographic variable independently associated with lower cancer suspicion (odds ratio (OR)=0.34, confidence interval (CI): 0.20-0.59). Levels of cancer suspicion were low overall in this community sample, and even lower in people from less educated backgrounds. This may hinder early symptomatic presentation and contribute to inequalities in stage at diagnosis. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  19. Determination of early warning signs for photocatalytic degradation of titanium white oil paints by means of surface analysis.

    PubMed

    van Driel, B A; Wezendonk, T A; van den Berg, K J; Kooyman, P J; Gascon, J; Dik, J

    2017-02-05

    Titanium white (TiO 2 ) has been widely used as a pigment in the 20th century. However, its most photocatalytic form (anatase) can cause severe degradation of the oil paint in which it is contained. UV light initiates TiO 2 -photocatalyzed processes in the paint film, degrading the oil binder into volatile components resulting in chalking of the paint. This will eventually lead to severe changes in the appearance of a painting. To date, limited examples of degraded works of art containing titanium white are known due to the relatively short existence of the paintings in question and the slow progress of the degradation process. However, UV light will inevitably cause degradation of paint in works of art containing photocatalytic titanium white. In this work, a method to detect early warning signs of photocatalytic degradation of unvarnished oil paint is proposed, using atomic force microscopy (AFM) and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). Consequently, a four-stage degradation model was developed through in-depth study of TiO 2 -containing paint films in various stages of degradation. The XPS surface analysis proved very valuable for detecting early warning signs of paint degradation, whereas the AFM results provide additional confirmation and are in good agreement with bulk gloss reduction. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Enhanced early warning system impact on nursing practice: A phenomenological study.

    PubMed

    Burns, Kathleen A; Reber, Tracey; Theodore, Karen; Welch, Brenda; Roy, Debra; Siedlecki, Sandra L

    2018-05-01

    To determine how an enhanced early warning system has an impact on nursing practice. Early warning systems score physiologic measures and alert nurses to subtle changes in patient condition. Critics of early warning systems have expressed concern that nurses would rely on a score rather than assessment skills and critical thinking to determine the need for intervention. Enhancing early warning systems with innovative technology is still in its infancy, so the impact of an enhanced early warning system on nursing behaviours or practice has not yet been studied. Phenomenological design. Scripted, semistructured interviews were conducted in September 2015 with 25 medical/surgical nurses who used the enhanced early warning system. Data were analysed using thematic analysis techniques (coding and bracketing). Emerging themes were examined for relationships and a model describing the enhanced early warning system experience was developed. Nurses identified awareness leading to investigation and ease of prioritization as the enhanced early warning system's most important impact on their nursing practice. There was also an impact on organizational culture, with nurses reporting improved communication, increased collaboration, increased accountability and proactive responses to early changes in patient condition. Rather than hinder critical thinking, as many early warning systems' critics claim, nurses in this study found that the enhanced early warning system increased their awareness of changes in a patient's condition, resulting in earlier response and reassessment times. It also had an impact on the organization by improving communication and collaboration and supporting a culture of proactive rather than reactive response to early signs of deterioration. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Ten Warning Signs Your Older Family Member May Need Help

    MedlinePlus

    ... Page Resize Text Printer Friendly Online Chat 10 Warning Signs Your Older Family Member May Need Help ... Eldercare Locator has compiled this list of 10 warning signs. Any one of the following behaviors may ...

  2. 46 CFR 97.37-11 - Carbon dioxide warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Carbon dioxide warning signs. 97.37-11 Section 97.37-11 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) CARGO AND MISCELLANEOUS VESSELS OPERATIONS Markings for Fire and Emergency Equipment, Etc. § 97.37-11 Carbon dioxide warning signs. Each...

  3. 46 CFR 97.37-11 - Carbon dioxide warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Carbon dioxide warning signs. 97.37-11 Section 97.37-11 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) CARGO AND MISCELLANEOUS VESSELS OPERATIONS Markings for Fire and Emergency Equipment, Etc. § 97.37-11 Carbon dioxide warning signs. Each...

  4. 46 CFR 97.37-11 - Carbon dioxide warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Carbon dioxide warning signs. 97.37-11 Section 97.37-11 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) CARGO AND MISCELLANEOUS VESSELS OPERATIONS Markings for Fire and Emergency Equipment, Etc. § 97.37-11 Carbon dioxide warning signs. Each...

  5. Warning Signs for Suicide: Theory, Research, and Clinical Applications

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rudd, M. David; Berman, Alan L.; Joiner, Thomas E., Jr.; Nock, Matthew K.; Silverman, Morton M.; Mandrusiak, Michael; Van Orden, Kimberly; Witte, Tracy

    2006-01-01

    The current article addresses the issue of warning signs for suicide, attempting to differentiate the construct from risk factors. In accordance with the characteristic features discussed, a consensus set of warning signs identified by the American Association of Suicidology working group are presented, along with a discussion of relevant clinical…

  6. 46 CFR 78.47-11 - Carbon dioxide warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 3 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Carbon dioxide warning signs. 78.47-11 Section 78.47-11 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) PASSENGER VESSELS OPERATIONS Markings for Fire and Emergency Equipment, Etc. § 78.47-11 Carbon dioxide warning signs. Each entrance to a space...

  7. 46 CFR 78.47-11 - Carbon dioxide warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 3 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Carbon dioxide warning signs. 78.47-11 Section 78.47-11 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) PASSENGER VESSELS OPERATIONS Markings for Fire and Emergency Equipment, Etc. § 78.47-11 Carbon dioxide warning signs. Each entrance to a space...

  8. 46 CFR 196.37-8 - Carbon dioxide warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 7 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Carbon dioxide warning signs. 196.37-8 Section 196.37-8 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) OCEANOGRAPHIC RESEARCH VESSELS OPERATIONS Markings for Fire and Emergency Equipment, etc. § 196.37-8 Carbon dioxide warning signs. Each entrance to a...

  9. 46 CFR 196.37-8 - Carbon dioxide warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 7 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Carbon dioxide warning signs. 196.37-8 Section 196.37-8 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) OCEANOGRAPHIC RESEARCH VESSELS OPERATIONS Markings for Fire and Emergency Equipment, etc. § 196.37-8 Carbon dioxide warning signs. Each entrance to a...

  10. 46 CFR 78.47-11 - Carbon dioxide warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 3 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Carbon dioxide warning signs. 78.47-11 Section 78.47-11 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) PASSENGER VESSELS OPERATIONS Markings for Fire and Emergency Equipment, Etc. § 78.47-11 Carbon dioxide warning signs. Each entrance to a space...

  11. 46 CFR 196.37-8 - Carbon dioxide warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 7 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Carbon dioxide warning signs. 196.37-8 Section 196.37-8 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) OCEANOGRAPHIC RESEARCH VESSELS OPERATIONS Markings for Fire and Emergency Equipment, etc. § 196.37-8 Carbon dioxide warning signs. Each entrance to a...

  12. Conspicuity, memorability, comprehension, and priming in road hazard warning signs.

    PubMed

    Charlton, Samuel G

    2006-05-01

    This study assessed driver reactions to 16 road hazard warning signs of various formats by projecting life-sized video of road scenes to drivers in a driving simulator. A range of measures, including attentional and search conspicuity, implicit and explicit recognition, dynamic and static comprehension, and sign priming were collected. Of the signs tested, road works and school warning signs were most often detected, remembered, and understood. Slippery surface warnings were associated with some of the lowest detection and comprehension rates. The effectiveness of the different formats depended on the type of hazard sign. In the case of road works warnings, a flashing variable message format was only slightly more conspicuous than the large dimension format, equal in comprehensibility, and perhaps somewhat worse in terms of memorability. For the school warnings, however, the flashing variable message format appeared to convey a greater sense of potential hazard, produced superior search conspicuity and priming, and was equal in terms of memorability and comprehensibility. The range of measures worked well as a whole with the two measures of conspicuity and the measure of static comprehension showing the greatest consistency.

  13. 46 CFR 147A.31 - Removal of fumigation material and warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 5 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Removal of fumigation material and warning signs. 147A... material and warning signs. After ventilation is completed and a marine chemist or other qualified person... vessel, shall ensure that all warning signs are removed and fumigation containers and materials are...

  14. 46 CFR 147A.31 - Removal of fumigation material and warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 5 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Removal of fumigation material and warning signs. 147A... material and warning signs. After ventilation is completed and a marine chemist or other qualified person... vessel, shall ensure that all warning signs are removed and fumigation containers and materials are...

  15. 46 CFR 147A.31 - Removal of fumigation material and warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Removal of fumigation material and warning signs. 147A... material and warning signs. After ventilation is completed and a marine chemist or other qualified person... vessel, shall ensure that all warning signs are removed and fumigation containers and materials are...

  16. Utility of warning signs in guiding admission and predicting severe disease in adult dengue

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The recommendation from the 2009 World Health Organization guidelines for managing dengue suggests that patients with any warning sign can be hospitalized for observation and management. We evaluated the utility of using warning signs to guide hospital admission and predict disease progression in adults. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study from January 2010 to September 2012. Daily demographic, clinical and laboratory data were collected from adult dengue patients. Warning signs were recorded. The proportion of admitted patients using current admission criteria and warning signs was compared. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of warning signs in predicting disease progression were also evaluated. Results Four hundred and ninety-nine patients with confirmed dengue were analyzed. Using warning signs instead of the current admission criteria will lead to a 44% and 31% increase in admission for DHF II-IV and SD cases respectively. The proportion of non-severe dengue cases which were admitted also increased by 32% for non DHF II-IV and 33% for non-SD cases. Absence of any warning signs had a NPV of 91%, 100% and 100% for DHF I-IV, DHF II-IV and SD. Of those who progressed to severe illness, 16.3% had warning signs on the same day while 51.3% had warning signs the day before developing severe illness, respectively. Conclusions Our findings demonstrated that patients without any warning signs can be managed safely with ambulatory care to reduce hospital resource burden. No single warning sign can independently predict disease progression. The window from onset of warning sign to severe illness in most cases was within one day. PMID:24152678

  17. Implementing drought early warning systems: policy lessons and future needs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iglesias, Ana; Werner, Micha; Maia, Rodrigo; Garrote, Luis; Nyabeze, Washington

    2014-05-01

    Drought forecasting and Warning provides the potential of reducing impacts to society due to drought events. The implementation of effective drought forecasting and warning, however, requires not only science to support reliable forecasting, but also adequate policy and societal response. Here we propose a protocol to develop drought forecasting and early warning based in the international cooperation of African and European institutions in the DEWFORA project (EC, 7th Framework Programme). The protocol includes four major phases that address the scientific knowledge and the social capacity to use the knowledge: (a) What is the science available? Evaluating how signs of impending drought can be detected and predicted, defining risk levels, and analysing of the signs of drought in an integrated vulnerability approach. (b) What are the societal capacities? In this the institutional framework that enables policy development is evaluated. The protocol gathers information on vulnerability and pending hazard in advance so that early warnings can be declared at sufficient lead time and drought mitigation planning can be implemented at an early stage. (c) How can science be translated into policy? Linking science indicators into the actions/interventions that society needs to implement, and evaluating how policy is implemented. Key limitations to planning for drought are the social capacities to implement early warning systems. Vulnerability assessment contributes to identify these limitations and therefore provides crucial information to policy development. Based on the assessment of vulnerability we suggest thresholds for management actions to respond to drought forecasts and link predictive indicators to relevant potential mitigation strategies. Vulnerability assessment is crucial to identify relief, coping and management responses that contribute to a more resilient society. (d) How can society benefit from the forecast? Evaluating how information is provided to

  18. 30 CFR 57.19108 - Posting warning signs during shaft work.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Posting warning signs during shaft work. 57.19108 Section 57.19108 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR... MINES Personnel Hoisting Shafts § 57.19108 Posting warning signs during shaft work. When persons are...

  19. 30 CFR 57.19108 - Posting warning signs during shaft work.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Posting warning signs during shaft work. 57.19108 Section 57.19108 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR... MINES Personnel Hoisting Shafts § 57.19108 Posting warning signs during shaft work. When persons are...

  20. Definitions for warning signs and signs of severe dengue according to the WHO 2009 classification: Systematic review of literature.

    PubMed

    Morra, Mostafa Ebraheem; Altibi, Ahmed M A; Iqtadar, Somia; Minh, Le Huu Nhat; Elawady, Sameh Samir; Hallab, Asma; Elshafay, Abdelrahman; Omer, Omer Abedlbagi; Iraqi, Ahmed; Adhikari, Purushottam; Labib, Jonair Hussein; Elhusseiny, Khaled Mosaad; Elgebaly, Ahmed; Yacoub, Sophie; Huong, Le Thi Minh; Hirayama, Kenji; Huy, Nguyen Tien

    2018-04-24

    Since warning signs and signs of severe dengue are defined differently between studies, we conducted a systematic review on how researchers defined these signs. We conducted an electronic search in Scopus to identify relevant articles, using key words including dengue, "warning signs," "severe dengue," and "classification." A total of 491 articles were identified through this search strategy and were subsequently screened by 2 independent reviewers for definitions of any of the warning or severe signs in the 2009 WHO dengue classification. We included all original articles published in English after 2009, classifying dengue by the 2009 WHO classification or providing the additional definition or criterion of warning signs and severity (besides the information of 2009 WHO). Analysis of the extracted data from 44 articles showed wide variations among definitions and cutoff values used by physicians to classify patients diagnosed with dengue infection. The establishment of clear definitions for warning signs and severity is essential to prevent unnecessary hospitalization and harmonizing the interpretation and comparability of epidemiological studies dedicated to dengue infection. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. 30 CFR 56.19108 - Posting warning signs during shaft work.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Posting warning signs during shaft work. 56.19108 Section 56.19108 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR... Personnel Hoisting Shafts § 56.19108 Posting warning signs during shaft work. When persons are working in a...

  2. 30 CFR 56.19108 - Posting warning signs during shaft work.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Posting warning signs during shaft work. 56.19108 Section 56.19108 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR... Personnel Hoisting Shafts § 56.19108 Posting warning signs during shaft work. When persons are working in a...

  3. 30 CFR 56.19108 - Posting warning signs during shaft work.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Posting warning signs during shaft work. 56.19108 Section 56.19108 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR... Personnel Hoisting Shafts § 56.19108 Posting warning signs during shaft work. When persons are working in a...

  4. 30 CFR 56.19108 - Posting warning signs during shaft work.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Posting warning signs during shaft work. 56.19108 Section 56.19108 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR... Personnel Hoisting Shafts § 56.19108 Posting warning signs during shaft work. When persons are working in a...

  5. National women's knowledge of stroke warning signs, overall and by race/ethnic group.

    PubMed

    Mochari-Greenberger, Heidi; Towfighi, Amytis; Mosca, Lori

    2014-04-01

    Recognition of stroke warning signs may reduce treatment delays. The purpose of this study was to evaluate contemporary knowledge of stroke warning signs and knowledge to call 9-1-1, among a nationally representative sample of women, overall and by race/ethnic group. A study of cardiovascular disease awareness was conducted by the American Heart Association in 2012 among English-speaking US women ≥25 years identified through random-digit dialing (n=1205; 54% white, 17% black, 17% Hispanic, and 12% other). Knowledge of stroke warning signs, and what to do first if experiencing stroke warning signs, was assessed by standardized open-ended questions. Half of women surveyed (51%) identified sudden weakness/numbness of face/limb on one side as a stroke warning sign; this did not vary by race/ethnic group. Loss of/trouble talking/understanding speech was identified by 44% of women, more frequently among white versus Hispanic women (48% versus 36%; P<0.05). Fewer than 1 in 4 women identified sudden severe headache (23%), unexplained dizziness (20%), or sudden dimness/loss of vision (18%) as warning signs, and 1 in 5 (20%) did not know 1 stroke warning sign. The majority of women said that they would call 9-1-1 first if they thought they were experiencing signs of a stroke (84%), and this did not vary among black (86%), Hispanic (79%), or white/other (85%) women. Knowledge of stroke warning signs was low among a nationally representative sample of women, especially among Hispanics. In contrast, knowledge to call 9-1-1 when experiencing signs of stroke was high.

  6. Early Warning Signs of Suicide in Service Members Who Engage in Unauthorized Acts of Violence

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-06-01

    observable to military law enforcement personnel. Statistical analyses tested for differences in warning signs between cases of suicide, violence, or...indicators, (2) Behavioral Change indicators, (3) Social indicators, and (4) Occupational indicators. Statistical analyses were conducted to test for...6 Coding _________________________________________________________________ 7 Statistical

  7. Wildlife Warning Signs: Public Assessment of Components, Placement and Designs to Optimise Driver Response

    PubMed Central

    Bond, Amy R. F.; Jones, Darryl N.

    2013-01-01

    Simple Summary Wildlife warning signs are aimed at reducing wildlife–vehicle collisions but there is little evidence that they are effective. Improving these sign designs to increase driver response may reduce wildlife–vehicle collisions. We examined drivers’ responses to different wildlife warning sign designs through a public survey. The presences of some sign components and sign position were assessed. Drivers’ responses to eight graphically displayed signs and animal- and vehicle-activated signs were ranked and participants indicated the sign to which they were most likely to respond. Three signs ranked highly. Animal- and vehicle-activated signs were also ranked highly by participants. More research into optimising wildlife warning sign designs is needed. Abstract Wildlife warning signs are the most commonly used and widespread form of road impact mitigation, aimed at reducing the incidence of wildlife–vehicle collisions. Evidence of the effectiveness of currently used signs is rare and often indicates minimal change in driver behaviour. Improving the design of these signs to increase the likelihood of appropriate driver response has the potential to reduce the incidence of wildlife–vehicle collisions. This study aimed to examine and assess the opinions of drivers on wildlife warning sign designs through a public opinion survey. Three currently used sign designs and five alternative sign designs were compared in the survey. A total of 134 drivers were surveyed. The presence of temporal specifications and an updated count of road-killed animals on wildlife warning signs were assessed, as well as the position of the sign. Drivers’ responses to the eight signs were scaled separately at three speed limits and participants indicated the sign to which they were most likely to respond. Three signs consistently ranked high. The messages conveyed by these signs and their prominent features were explored. Animal-activated and vehicle speed-activated signs

  8. A narrative synthesis of factors that affect women speaking up about early warning signs and symptoms of pre-eclampsia and responses of healthcare staff.

    PubMed

    Carter, Wendy; Bick, Debra; Mackintosh, Nicola; Sandall, Jane

    2017-02-13

    One of the challenges for treating pre-eclampsia and preventing further deterioration is determining how best to enable early detection. If women or their partners and families are able to raise early warnings about potential signs and symptoms of pre-eclampsia in pregnancy, birth and in the postnatal period, women may be able to receive earlier intervention to prevent severe pre-eclampsia from developing. The aim of this study was to improve understanding of factors affecting the ability of women to recognise symptoms and signs of pre-eclampsia/eclampsia and seek appropriate medical help and factors affecting health care professionals' responses to women and their families who 'speak up' about early warning signs and symptoms. A narrative synthesis was conducted of evidence relevant to address the research question. The following electronic data bases were searched for qualitative studies which met inclusion criteria from January 1980 to April 2016; Medline, CINAHL, HMIC, PsycINFO, Embase, BNI, ASSIA, Scopus, Maternity and Infant Care, Web of Science, Google Scholar, Cochrane, JBI and IBSS with the support of an Information Service Consultant. Following thematic analysis, three themes were identified; 1: Women's understanding and knowledge of pre-eclampsia/eclampsia; 2: Factors affecting help seeking behaviour from perspectives of women and their families'; 3: Factors affecting staff response. There was widespread lack of knowledge and understanding of signs and symptoms of pre-eclampsia/eclampsia among women and their families, with some women not exhibiting signs and symptoms of pre-eclampsia or unable to distinguish them from 'normal' pregnancy changes. Women and their families not only need to be made aware of signs and symptoms of pre-eclampsia/eclampsia but also require information on the most effective ways to seek urgent medical assessment and care. Some women did not experience prodromal signs and symptoms, which raises concerns about how women and

  9. Awareness levels about breast cancer risk factors, early warning signs, and screening and therapeutic approaches among Iranian adult women: a large population based study using latent class analysis.

    PubMed

    Tazhibi, Mahdi; Feizi, Awat

    2014-01-01

    Breast cancer (BC) continues to be a major cause of morbidity and mortality among women throughout the world and in Iran. Lack of awareness and early detection program in developing country is a main reason for escalating the mortality. The present research was conducted to assess the Iranian women's level of knowledge about breast cancer risk factors, early warning signs, and therapeutic and screening approaches, and their correlated determinants. In a cross-sectional study, 2250 women before participating at a community based screening and public educational program in an institute of cancer research in Isfahan, Iran, in 2012 were investigated using a self-administered questionnaire about risk factors, early warning signs, and therapeutic and screening approaches of BC. Latent class regression as a comprehensive statistical method was used for evaluating the level of knowledge and its correlated determinants. Only 33.2%, 31.9%, 26.7%, and 35.8% of study participants had high awareness levels about screening approaches, risk factors, early warning signs and therapeutic modalities of breast cancer, respectively, and majority had poor to moderate knowledge levels. Most effective predictors of high level of awareness were higher educational qualifications, attending in screening and public educational programs, personal problem, and family history of BC, respectively. Results of current study indicated that the levels of awareness among study population about key elements of BC are low. These findings reenforce the continuing need for more BC education through conducting public and professional programs that are intended to raise awareness among younger, single women and those with low educational attainments and without family history.

  10. 30 CFR 817.66 - Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings, and access control.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings... STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND MINING ACTIVITIES § 817.66 Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings, and access control. (a) Blasting signs. Blasting signs shall meet the specifications of § 817.11. The operator shall...

  11. 30 CFR 817.66 - Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings, and access control.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings... STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND MINING ACTIVITIES § 817.66 Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings, and access control. (a) Blasting signs. Blasting signs shall meet the specifications of § 817.11. The operator shall...

  12. 30 CFR 817.66 - Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings, and access control.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings... STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND MINING ACTIVITIES § 817.66 Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings, and access control. (a) Blasting signs. Blasting signs shall meet the specifications of § 817.11. The operator shall...

  13. 30 CFR 817.66 - Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings, and access control.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings... STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND MINING ACTIVITIES § 817.66 Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings, and access control. (a) Blasting signs. Blasting signs shall meet the specifications of § 817.11. The operator shall...

  14. 30 CFR 817.66 - Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings, and access control.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings... STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND MINING ACTIVITIES § 817.66 Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings, and access control. (a) Blasting signs. Blasting signs shall meet the specifications of § 817.11. The operator shall...

  15. 30 CFR 816.66 - Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings, and access control.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings... STANDARDS-SURFACE MINING ACTIVITIES § 816.66 Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings, and access control. (a) Blasting signs. Blasting signs shall meet the specifications of § 816.11. The operator shall— (1...

  16. 30 CFR 816.66 - Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings, and access control.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings... STANDARDS-SURFACE MINING ACTIVITIES § 816.66 Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings, and access control. (a) Blasting signs. Blasting signs shall meet the specifications of § 816.11. The operator shall— (1...

  17. 30 CFR 816.66 - Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings, and access control.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings... STANDARDS-SURFACE MINING ACTIVITIES § 816.66 Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings, and access control. (a) Blasting signs. Blasting signs shall meet the specifications of § 816.11. The operator shall— (1...

  18. 30 CFR 816.66 - Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings, and access control.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings... STANDARDS-SURFACE MINING ACTIVITIES § 816.66 Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings, and access control. (a) Blasting signs. Blasting signs shall meet the specifications of § 816.11. The operator shall— (1...

  19. 30 CFR 816.66 - Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings, and access control.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings... STANDARDS-SURFACE MINING ACTIVITIES § 816.66 Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings, and access control. (a) Blasting signs. Blasting signs shall meet the specifications of § 816.11. The operator shall— (1...

  20. 46 CFR 105.45-15 - Warning signals and signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Warning signals and signs. 105.45-15 Section 105.45-15 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) CARGO AND MISCELLANEOUS VESSELS COMMERCIAL FISHING VESSELS DISPENSING PETROLEUM PRODUCTS Special Operating Requirements § 105.45-15 Warning...

  1. 46 CFR 105.45-15 - Warning signals and signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning signals and signs. 105.45-15 Section 105.45-15 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) CARGO AND MISCELLANEOUS VESSELS COMMERCIAL FISHING VESSELS DISPENSING PETROLEUM PRODUCTS Special Operating Requirements § 105.45-15 Warning...

  2. 46 CFR 105.45-15 - Warning signals and signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Warning signals and signs. 105.45-15 Section 105.45-15 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) CARGO AND MISCELLANEOUS VESSELS COMMERCIAL FISHING VESSELS DISPENSING PETROLEUM PRODUCTS Special Operating Requirements § 105.45-15 Warning...

  3. 46 CFR 105.45-15 - Warning signals and signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Warning signals and signs. 105.45-15 Section 105.45-15 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) CARGO AND MISCELLANEOUS VESSELS COMMERCIAL FISHING VESSELS DISPENSING PETROLEUM PRODUCTS Special Operating Requirements § 105.45-15 Warning...

  4. 46 CFR 105.45-15 - Warning signals and signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Warning signals and signs. 105.45-15 Section 105.45-15 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) CARGO AND MISCELLANEOUS VESSELS COMMERCIAL FISHING VESSELS DISPENSING PETROLEUM PRODUCTS Special Operating Requirements § 105.45-15 Warning...

  5. Implementing Obstetric Early Warning Systems.

    PubMed

    Friedman, Alexander M; Campbell, Mary L; Kline, Carolyn R; Wiesner, Suzanne; D'Alton, Mary E; Shields, Laurence E

    2018-04-01

    Severe maternal morbidity and mortality are often preventable and obstetric early warning systems that alert care providers of potential impending critical illness may improve maternal safety. While literature on outcomes and test characteristics of maternal early warning systems is evolving, there is limited guidance on implementation. Given current interest in early warning systems and their potential role in care, the 2017 Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine (SMFM) Annual Meeting dedicated a session to exploring early warning implementation across a wide range of hospital settings. This manuscript reports on key points from this session. While implementation experiences varied based on factors specific to individual sites, common themes relevant to all hospitals presenting were identified. Successful implementation of early warnings systems requires administrative and leadership support, dedication of resources, improved coordination between nurses, providers, and ancillary staff, optimization of information technology, effective education, evaluation of and change in hospital culture and practices, and support in provider decision-making. Evolving data on outcomes on early warning systems suggest that maternal risk may be reduced. To effectively reduce maternal, risk early warning systems that capture deterioration from a broad range of conditions may be required in addition to bundles tailored to specific conditions such as hemorrhage, thromboembolism, and hypertension.

  6. Awareness of stroke risk factors and warning signs in Nigerian adolescents compared with adults.

    PubMed

    Komolafe, Morenikeji A; Obembe, Adebimpe O; Olaogun, Matthew O; Adebiyi, Ayoade M; Ugalahi, Theresa; Dada, Olumuyiwa; Kanu, Alfred; Adebiyi, Olubunmi C; Akilo, Folarin; Ogunkoya, Bukola; Fawale, Bimbo

    2015-03-01

    Stroke, a significant health problem affecting adults, is increasing among younger age groups, particularly because of changing lifestyles. The aim of the study was to compare the awareness of stroke risk factors and warning signs among students and teachers in selected secondary schools in Osun State, Nigeria. This was a cross-sectional survey involving 703 (589 students and 114 teachers) respondents in selected secondary schools in Osun, Nigeria. Information on the awareness of stroke risk factors and warning signs was collected with the aid of a structured questionnaire. Hypertension (69.4%) was the most commonly identified stroke risk factor, with more teachers (79.8%) identifying correctly than the students (67.4%). Weakness (51.9%) was the most commonly identified warning sign of stroke with more students (53.8%) identifying correctly than the teachers (42.1%). There were significant differences in the awareness of some risk factors (age, obesity, family history, alcohol use, diet, transient ischemic attack, and hyperlipidemia) and warning signs (dizziness, weakness, and vision problems) between students and teachers. Predictors for adequate awareness of risk factors were being a teacher, not being obese and being hypertensive, whereas predictors for adequate awareness of warning signs were stroke in the family and being hypertensive. There was inadequate awareness of risk factors and warning signs among the respondents with students having better awareness of warning signs and teachers having better awareness of risk factors. Stroke campaigns should emphasize stroke risk factors particularly among adolescents and warning signs in adults. The use of media, particularly television, is recommended. Copyright © 2015 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Capturing early signs of deterioration: the dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score and its value in the Rapid Response System.

    PubMed

    Douw, Gooske; Huisman-de Waal, Getty; van Zanten, Arthur R H; van der Hoeven, Johannes G; Schoonhoven, Lisette

    2017-09-01

    To determine the predictive value of individual and combined dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score indicators at various Early Warning Score levels, differentiating between Early Warning Scores reaching the trigger threshold to call a rapid response team and Early Warning Score levels not reaching this point. Dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score comprises nine indicators underlying nurses' 'worry' about a patient's condition. All indicators independently show significant association with unplanned intensive care/high dependency unit admission or unexpected mortality. Prediction of this outcome improved by adding the dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score indicators to an Early Warning Score based on vital signs. An observational cohort study was conducted on three surgical wards in a tertiary university-affiliated teaching hospital. Included were surgical, native-speaking, adult patients. Nurses scored presence of 'worry' and/or dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score indicators every shift or when worried. Vital signs were measured according to the prevailing protocol. Unplanned intensive care/high dependency unit admission or unexpected mortality was the composite endpoint. Percentages of 'worry' and dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score indicators were calculated at various Early Warning Score levels in control and event groups. Entering all dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score indicators in a multiple logistic regression analysis, we calculated a weighted score and calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predicted value and negative predicted value for each possible total score. In 3522 patients, 102 (2·9%) had an unplanned intensive care/high dependency unit admissions (n = 97) or unexpected mortality (n = 5). Patients with such events and only slightly changed vital signs had significantly higher percentages of 'worry' and dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score indicators expressed than patients in the control group. Increasing number

  8. Wildlife Warning Signs: Public Assessment of Components, Placement and Designs to Optimise Driver Response.

    PubMed

    Bond, Amy R F; Jones, Darryl N

    2013-12-17

    Wildlife warning signs are the most commonly used and widespread form of road impact mitigation, aimed at reducing the incidence of wildlife-vehicle collisions. Evidence of the effectiveness of currently used signs is rare and often indicates minimal change in driver behaviour. Improving the design of these signs to increase the likelihood of appropriate driver response has the potential to reduce the incidence of wildlife-vehicle collisions. This study aimed to examine and assess the opinions of drivers on wildlife warning sign designs through a public opinion survey. Three currently used sign designs and five alternative sign designs were compared in the survey. A total of 134 drivers were surveyed. The presence of temporal specifications and an updated count of road-killed animals on wildlife warning signs were assessed, as well as the position of the sign. Drivers' responses to the eight signs were scaled separately at three speed limits and participants indicated the sign to which they were most likely to respond. Three signs consistently ranked high. The messages conveyed by these signs and their prominent features were explored. Animal-activated and vehicle speed-activated signs were ranked very highly by participants. Extensive field trials of various sign designs are needed to further this research into optimizing wildlife warning sign designs.

  9. A Test of the Effectiveness of a List of Suicide Warning Signs for the Public

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Van Orden, Kimberly A.; Joiner, Thomas E., Jr.; Hollar, Daniel; Rudd, M. David; Mandrusiak, Michael; Silverman, Morton M.

    2006-01-01

    In this study we examined the effect that reading a list of warning signs for suicide has on beliefs about suicide, including the belief that one can recognize a suicidal crisis. All participants read two sets of warning signs (with only the experimental group reading the suicide warning signs) and then answered questions concerning beliefs…

  10. 49 CFR 176.325 - Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs... Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs. (a) Smoking or the use of open flame is prohibited in... material. (b) A sign carrying the legend: FLAMMABLE VAPORS KEEP LIGHTS AND FIRE AWAY NO SMOKING must be...

  11. 49 CFR 176.325 - Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs... Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs. (a) Smoking or the use of open flame is prohibited in... material. (b) A sign carrying the legend: FLAMMABLE VAPORS KEEP LIGHTS AND FIRE AWAY NO SMOKING must be...

  12. 49 CFR 176.325 - Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs... Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs. (a) Smoking or the use of open flame is prohibited in... material. (b) A sign carrying the legend: FLAMMABLE VAPORS KEEP LIGHTS AND FIRE AWAY NO SMOKING must be...

  13. 49 CFR 176.325 - Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs... Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs. (a) Smoking or the use of open flame is prohibited in... material. (b) A sign carrying the legend: FLAMMABLE VAPORS KEEP LIGHTS AND FIRE AWAY NO SMOKING must be...

  14. 49 CFR 176.325 - Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs... Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs. (a) Smoking or the use of open flame is prohibited in... material. (b) A sign carrying the legend: FLAMMABLE VAPORS KEEP LIGHTS AND FIRE AWAY NO SMOKING must be...

  15. Clinical profile and warning sign finding in children with severe dengue and non-severe dengue

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adam, A. S.; Pasaribu, S.; Wijaya, H.; Pasaribu, A. P.

    2018-03-01

    Dengue fever is one of the most important emerging vector-borne viral diseases. Approximately 500,000 out of 100 million cases develop to severe dengue infection. Patient with severe dengue (SD) can be predicted by clinical profile, laboratory and warning sign which could be saved by early interventions.This was a retrospective descriptive-analytic study to investigate clinical manifestations, laboratory and warning signs ofchildren with dengue infection in Haji Adam Malik hospital during January 2014–May 2016. Through medical records, we had selected 140 cases which fulfilled research criteria.Cases were classified as SD (n=28) and NSD (n=112). Most common clinical manifestations for NSD were abdominal pain (39.3%), myalgia (39.3%), headache (37.1%), mucosal bleeding (36.4%) while for SD were shock (15.7%), mucosal bleeding (15.7%), clinical fluid accumulation (15%), shortness of breath (14.3%). SGPT >1000IU/L (5 cases), SGOT >1000IU/L (9 cases), PT (10 cases) and aPTT (16 cases) were abnormal in SD. Severe dengue was frequently found in the range of white cell count 1000-4000/L and platelet count 20,000-50,000mm/uL. Clinical manifestations, warning sign, and laboratoryfinding, were different between SD and NSD.

  16. Evaluation of selected warning signs at skewed railroad-highway crossings.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1986-01-01

    A 1984 study by the Research Council recommended that advance warning signs be placed in advance of skewed railroad-highway grade crossings. Several signs were suggested for use, and the study reported here was undertaken to determine the effectivene...

  17. Advertising strategies to increase public knowledge of the warning signs of stroke.

    PubMed

    Silver, Frank L; Rubini, Frank; Black, Diane; Hodgson, Corinne S

    2003-08-01

    Public awareness of the warning signs of stroke is important. As part of an educational campaign using mass media, the Heart and Stroke Foundation of Ontario conducted public opinion polling in 4 communities to track the level of awareness of the warning signs of stroke and to determine the impact of different media strategies. Telephone surveys were conducted among members of the general public in 1 control and 3 test communities before and after mass media campaigns. The main outcome measure used to determine effectiveness of the campaigns was the ability to name > or =2 warning signs of stroke. In communities exposed to television advertising, ability to name the warning signs of stroke increased significantly. There was no significant change in the community receiving print (newspaper) advertising, and the control community experienced a decrease. Television increased the knowledge of both men and women and of people with less than a secondary school education but not of those > or =65 years of age. Intermittent, low-level television advertising was as effective as continuous, high-level television advertising. Results of this survey can be used to guide mass media-buying strategies for public health education.

  18. How effective are the 6 European Society of Immunodeficiency warning signs for primary immunodeficiency disease?

    PubMed

    Arslan, Sevket; Ucar, Ramazan; Caliskaner, Ahmet Zafer; Reisli, Ismail; Guner, Sukru Nail; Sayar, Esra Hazar; Baloglu, Ismail

    2016-02-01

    The European Society of Immunodeficiency (ESID) developed 6 warning signs to promote the awareness of adult primary immunodeficiency disease (PID). To screen adult patients for the presence of PID using these 6 warning signs to determine the effectiveness of this protocol. Questions related to the ESID warning signs for adult PID were added to the standard outpatient clinic file system and asked of 3,510 patients who were admitted to our clinic for any reason. Patients with signs and/or suspicion of PID based on their medical history underwent immunologic investigation. In total, 24 patients were diagnosed as having a PID. The most common reason that patients with PID were admitted was frequent infection (n=18 [75%]), and the most common PID subgroup was common variable immunodeficiency (n=12 [50%]). Twenty patients with PID had at least one positive finding according to the ESID warning signs. Two patients with gastrointestinal concerns and 2 with dermatologic symptoms were also diagnosed as having a PID, although they did not have any of the ESID warning signs. The ESID warning signs do not specify the need for symptoms to diagnose a PIDs and do not include a comprehensive list of all signs and symptoms of PIDs. As a result, more than infection-centric questions are needed to identify adult patients with immunodeficiencies. Copyright © 2016 American College of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Know the Warning Signs of a Heart Attack

    MedlinePlus

    ... No. 22 Know the Warning Signs of a Heart Attack What is a heart attack? Aheart attack happens when the blood vessels that ... hurting your heart muscle. Another name for a heart attack is myocardial infarction, or MI. If you have ...

  20. Use of Warning Signs for Dengue by Pediatric Health Care Staff in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Sicuro Correa, Luana; Hökerberg, Yara Hahr Marques; Oliveira, Raquel de Vasconcellos Carvalhaes de; Barros, Danielle Martins de Souza; Alexandria, Helenara Abadia Ferreira; Daumas, Regina Paiva; Andrade, Carlos Augusto Ferreira de; Passos, Sonia Regina Lambert; Brasil, Patrícia

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to describe the use of dengue warning signs by pediatric healthcare staff in the Brazilian public health care system. Cross-sectional study (2012) with physicians, nurses, and nurse technicians assisting children in five health care facilities. Participants reported the use and importance of dengue warning signs in pediatrics clinical practice through a structured questionnaire. Differences in the use of signs (chi-square test) and in the ranking assigned to each of them (Kruskal-Wallis) were assessed according to health care occupation and level of care (p<0.05). The final sample comprised 474 participants (97%), mean age of 37 years (standard deviation = 10.3), mainly females (83.8%), physicians (40.1%) and from tertiary care (75.1%). The majority (91%) reported using warning signs for dengue in pediatrics clinical practice. The most widely used and highly valued signs were major hemorrhages (gastrointestinal, urinary), abdominal pain, and increase in hematocrit concurrent or not with rapid decrease in platelet count. Persistent vomiting as well as other signs of plasma leakage such as respiratory distress and lethargy/restlessness were not identified as having the same degree of importance, especially by nurse technicians and in primary or secondary care. Although most health care staff reported using dengue warning signs, it would be useful to extend the training for identifying easily recognizable signs of plasma leakage that occur regardless of bleeding.

  1. Use of Warning Signs for Dengue by Pediatric Health Care Staff in Brazil

    PubMed Central

    Hökerberg, Yara Hahr Marques; de Oliveira, Raquel de Vasconcellos Carvalhaes; Barros, Danielle Martins de Souza; Alexandria, Helenara Abadia Ferreira; Daumas, Regina Paiva; de Andrade, Carlos Augusto Ferreira; Passos, Sonia Regina Lambert; Brasil, Patrícia

    2016-01-01

    Objective The aim of this study was to describe the use of dengue warning signs by pediatric healthcare staff in the Brazilian public health care system. Methods Cross-sectional study (2012) with physicians, nurses, and nurse technicians assisting children in five health care facilities. Participants reported the use and importance of dengue warning signs in pediatrics clinical practice through a structured questionnaire. Differences in the use of signs (chi-square test) and in the ranking assigned to each of them (Kruskal-Wallis) were assessed according to health care occupation and level of care (p<0.05). Results The final sample comprised 474 participants (97%), mean age of 37 years (standard deviation = 10.3), mainly females (83.8%), physicians (40.1%) and from tertiary care (75.1%). The majority (91%) reported using warning signs for dengue in pediatrics clinical practice. The most widely used and highly valued signs were major hemorrhages (gastrointestinal, urinary), abdominal pain, and increase in hematocrit concurrent or not with rapid decrease in platelet count. Persistent vomiting as well as other signs of plasma leakage such as respiratory distress and lethargy/restlessness were not identified as having the same degree of importance, especially by nurse technicians and in primary or secondary care. Discussion Although most health care staff reported using dengue warning signs, it would be useful to extend the training for identifying easily recognizable signs of plasma leakage that occur regardless of bleeding. PMID:27716812

  2. 49 CFR 176.220 - Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs... CARRIAGE BY VESSEL Detailed Requirements for Class 2 (Compressed Gas) Materials § 176.220 Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs. (a) Smoking or the use of open flame is prohibited in any hold or...

  3. 49 CFR 176.220 - Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs... CARRIAGE BY VESSEL Detailed Requirements for Class 2 (Compressed Gas) Materials § 176.220 Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs. (a) Smoking or the use of open flame is prohibited in any hold or...

  4. 49 CFR 176.220 - Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs... CARRIAGE BY VESSEL Detailed Requirements for Class 2 (Compressed Gas) Materials § 176.220 Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs. (a) Smoking or the use of open flame is prohibited in any hold or...

  5. 49 CFR 176.220 - Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs... CARRIAGE BY VESSEL Detailed Requirements for Class 2 (Compressed Gas) Materials § 176.220 Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs. (a) Smoking or the use of open flame is prohibited in any hold or...

  6. 49 CFR 176.220 - Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs... CARRIAGE BY VESSEL Detailed Requirements for Class 2 (Compressed Gas) Materials § 176.220 Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs. (a) Smoking or the use of open flame is prohibited in any hold or...

  7. Short National Early Warning Score - Developing a Modified Early Warning Score.

    PubMed

    Luís, Leandro; Nunes, Carla

    2017-12-11

    Early Warning Score (EWS) systems have been developed for detecting hospital patients clinical deterioration. Many studies show that a National Early Warning Score (NEWS) performs well in discriminating survival from death in acute medical and surgical hospital wards. NEWS is validated for Portugal and is available for use. A simpler EWS system may help to reduce the risk of error, as well as increase clinician compliance with the tool. The aim of the study was to evaluate whether a simplified NEWS model will improve use and data collection. We evaluated the ability of single and aggregated parameters from the NEWS model to detect patients' clinical deterioration in the 24h prior to an outcome. There were 2 possible outcomes: Survival vs Unanticipated intensive care unit admission or death. We used binary logistic regression models and Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves (ROC) to evaluate the parameters' performance in discriminating among the outcomes for a sample of patients from 6 Portuguese hospital wards. NEWS presented an excellent discriminating capability (Area under the Curve of ROC (AUCROC)=0.944). Temperature and systolic blood pressure (SBP) parameters did not contribute significantly to the model. We developed two different models, one without temperature, and the other by removing temperature and SBP (M2). Both models had an excellent discriminating capability (AUCROC: 0.965; 0.903, respectively) and a good predictive power in the optimum threshold of the ROC curve. The 3 models revealed similar discriminant capabilities. Although the use of SBP is not clearly evident in the identification of clinical deterioration, it is recognized as an important vital sign. We recommend the use of the first new model, as its simplicity may help to improve adherence and use by health care workers. Copyright © 2017 Australian College of Critical Care Nurses Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. The Role of Cash Flow in Financial Early Warning of Agricultural Enterprises Based on Logistic Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Fengru

    2018-01-01

    This paper chooses the agricultural listed companies as the research object, compares the financial situation of the enterprise and the theory of financial early warning, combines the financial status of the agricultural listed companies, selects the relevant cash flow indicators, discusses the application of the Logistic financial early warning model in the agricultural listed companies, Agricultural enterprises get better development. Research on financial early warning of agricultural listed companies will help the agricultural listed companies to predict the financial crisis. Financial early warning model is simple to establish, operational and strong, the use of financial early warning model, to help enterprises in the financial crisis before taking rapid and effective measures, which can avoid losses. Help enterprises to discover signs of deterioration of the financial situation in time to maintain the sustainable development of agricultural enterprises. In addition, through the financial early warning model, investors can correctly identify the financial situation of agricultural enterprises, and can evaluate the financial situation of agricultural enterprises and to help investors to invest in scientific and rational, beneficial to investors to analyze the safety of investment. But also help the relevant regulatory agencies to effectively monitor the market and promote the healthy and stable development of the market.

  9. Which System Variables Carry Robust Early Signs of Upcoming Phase Transition? An Ecological Example.

    PubMed

    Negahbani, Ehsan; Steyn-Ross, D Alistair; Steyn-Ross, Moira L; Aguirre, Luis A

    2016-01-01

    Growth of critical fluctuations prior to catastrophic state transition is generally regarded as a universal phenomenon, providing a valuable early warning signal in dynamical systems. Using an ecological fisheries model of three populations (juvenile prey J, adult prey A and predator P), a recent study has reported silent early warning signals obtained from P and A populations prior to saddle-node (SN) bifurcation, and thus concluded that early warning signals are not universal. By performing a full eigenvalue analysis of the same system we demonstrate that while J and P populations undergo SN bifurcation, A does not jump to a new state, so it is not expected to carry early warning signs. In contrast with the previous study, we capture a significant increase in the noise-induced fluctuations in the P population, but only on close approach to the bifurcation point; it is not clear why the P variance initially shows a decaying trend. Here we resolve this puzzle using observability measures from control theory. By computing the observability coefficient for the system from the recordings of each population considered one at a time, we are able to quantify their ability to describe changing internal dynamics. We demonstrate that precursor fluctuations are best observed using only the J variable, and also P variable if close to transition. Using observability analysis we are able to describe why a poorly observable variable (P) has poor forecasting capabilities although a full eigenvalue analysis shows that this variable undergoes a bifurcation. We conclude that observability analysis provides complementary information to identify the variables carrying early-warning signs about impending state transition.

  10. 46 CFR 35.40-8 - Carbon dioxide warning signs-T/ALL.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Carbon dioxide warning signs-T/ALL. 35.40-8 Section 35.40-8 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY TANK VESSELS OPERATIONS Posting and Marking Requirements-TB/ALL § 35.40-8 Carbon dioxide warning signs—T/ALL. Each entrance to a space storing...

  11. 46 CFR 35.40-8 - Carbon dioxide warning signs-T/ALL.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Carbon dioxide warning signs-T/ALL. 35.40-8 Section 35... Marking Requirements-TB/ALL § 35.40-8 Carbon dioxide warning signs—T/ALL. Each entrance to a space storing carbon dioxide cylinders, a space protected by carbon dioxide systems, or any space into which carbon...

  12. 46 CFR 35.40-8 - Carbon dioxide warning signs-T/ALL.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Carbon dioxide warning signs-T/ALL. 35.40-8 Section 35... Marking Requirements-TB/ALL § 35.40-8 Carbon dioxide warning signs—T/ALL. Each entrance to a space storing carbon dioxide cylinders, a space protected by carbon dioxide systems, or any space into which carbon...

  13. Four Signs Your District Is Ready for an Early Warning System. A Discussion Guide

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Regional Educational Laboratory Pacific, 2016

    2016-01-01

    Although high school graduation rates continue to rise in the United States, reaching 81 percent in the 2012-2013 school year (U.S. Department of Education, 2015), dropout remains a pervasive issue for education systems across the nation. In recent years, Early Warning Systems (EWS), which utilize administrative data to identify students at risk…

  14. Racial disparities in knowledge of stroke and heart attack risk factors and warning signs among Michigan adults.

    PubMed

    Fussman, Chris; Rafferty, Ann P; Reeves, Mathew J; Zackery, Shannon; Lyon-Callo, Sarah; Anderson, Beth

    2009-01-01

    To describe the level of knowledge regarding risk factors and warning signs for stroke and heart attack among White and African American adults in Michigan and to quantify racial disparities. Knowledge of stroke and heart attack risk factors and warning signs was assessed by using data from the 2004 Michigan Behavioral Risk Factor Survey. Prevalence estimates of knowledge were generated, and statistical differences in knowledge between Whites and African Americans were assessed. Adequate knowledge was defined as knowing 3 correct warning signs or risk factors. Logistic regression models were used to quantify the racial disparity in knowledge while controlling for potential confounding. Whites had substantially higher levels of adequate knowledge of risk factors (stroke: 31.6% vs 13.8%; heart attack: 52.6% vs 24.3%) and warning signs (stroke: 30.0% vs 17.2%; heart attack: 29.3% vs 13.8%) compared with African Americans (all observed differences were significant at P < .05). The odds of adequate knowledge of risk factors (stroke: adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 2.9; heart attack: AOR 3.4) and warning signs (stroke: AOR 2.0; heart attack: AOR 2.4) were significantly higher for Whites than for African Americans. A strong racial disparity in the knowledge of stroke and heart attack risk factors and warning signs exists among Michigan adults. Communitywide public education programs in conjunction with targeted interventions for at-risk populations are necessary to produce meaningful improvements in the awareness of stroke and heart attack risk factors and warning signs among Michigan adults.

  15. Drought early warning and risk management in a changing environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2011-12-01

    Drought has long been recognized as falling into the category of incremental but long-term and cumulative environmental changes, also termed slow-onset or creeping events. These event types would include: air and water quality decline, desertification processes, deforestation and forest fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and habitats, and nitrogen overloading, among others. Climate scientists continue to struggle with recognizing the onset of drought and scientists and policy makers continue to debate the basis (i.e., criteria) for declaring an end to a drought. Risk-based management approaches to drought planning at the national and regional levels have been recommended repeatedly over the years but their prototyping, testing and operational implementation have been limited. This presentation will outline two avenues for disaster risk reduction in the context of drought (1) integrated early warning information systems, and (2) linking disaster risk reduction to climate change adaptation strategies. Adaptation involves not only using operational facilities and infrastructure to cope with the immediate problems but also leaving slack or reserve for coping with multiple stress problems that produce extreme impacts and surprise. Increasing the 'anticipatability' of an event, involves both monitoring of key indicators from appropriate baseline data, and observing early warning signs that assumptions in risk management plans are failing and critical transitions are occurring. Illustrative cases will be drawn from the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters (2011), the UN Global Assessment of Disaster Risk Reduction (2011) and implementation activities in which the author has been engaged. Most drought early warning systems have tended to focus on the development and use of physical system indicators and forecasts of trends and thresholds. We show that successful early warning systems that meet expectations of risk management also have

  16. Famines in Africa: is early warning early enough?

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Jeeyon Janet; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

    2012-01-01

    Following the second Sahelian famine in 1984–1985, major investments were made to establish Early Warning Systems. These systems help to ensure that timely warnings and vulnerability information are available to decision makers to anticipate and avert food crises. In the recent crisis in the Horn of Africa, alarming levels of acute malnutrition were documented from March 2010, and by August 2010, an impending food crisis was forecast. Despite these measures, the situation remained unrecognised, and further deteriorated causing malnutrition levels to grow in severity and scope. By the time the United Nations officially declared famine on 20 July 2011, and the humanitarian community sluggishly went into response mode, levels of malnutrition and mortality exceeded catastrophic levels. At this time, an estimated 11 million people were in desperate and immediate need for food. With warnings of food crises in the Sahel, South Sudan, and forecast of the drought returning to the Horn, there is an immediate need to institutionalize change in the health response during humanitarian emergencies. Early warning systems are only effective if they trigger an early response. PMID:22745628

  17. Famines in Africa: is early warning early enough?

    PubMed

    Kim, Jeeyon Janet; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

    2012-01-01

    Following the second Sahelian famine in 1984-1985, major investments were made to establish Early Warning Systems. These systems help to ensure that timely warnings and vulnerability information are available to decision makers to anticipate and avert food crises. In the recent crisis in the Horn of Africa, alarming levels of acute malnutrition were documented from March 2010, and by August 2010, an impending food crisis was forecast. Despite these measures, the situation remained unrecognised, and further deteriorated causing malnutrition levels to grow in severity and scope. By the time the United Nations officially declared famine on 20 July 2011, and the humanitarian community sluggishly went into response mode, levels of malnutrition and mortality exceeded catastrophic levels. At this time, an estimated 11 million people were in desperate and immediate need for food. With warnings of food crises in the Sahel, South Sudan, and forecast of the drought returning to the Horn, there is an immediate need to institutionalize change in the health response during humanitarian emergencies. Early warning systems are only effective if they trigger an early response.

  18. The Emotional Impact and Ease of Recall of Warning Signs for Suicide: A Controlled Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rudd, M. David; Mandrusiak, Michael; Joiner, Thomas E., Jr.; Berman, Alan L.; Van Orden, Kimberly A.; Hollar, Daniel

    2006-01-01

    In light of concerns about potential iatrogenic effects of information about suicide, in the current study we examined the emotional impact of reading a list of warning signs for suicide in comparison to comparable lists for heart attacks and diabetes. All participants read two sets of warning signs, with the experimental group reading the suicide…

  19. A Mixed Methods Approach to Identify Cognitive Warning Signs for Suicide Attempts.

    PubMed

    Adler, Abby; Bush, Ashley; Barg, Frances K; Weissinger, Guy; Beck, Aaron T; Brown, Gregory K

    2016-01-01

    This study used a mixed methods approach to examine pathways to suicidal behavior by identifying cognitive warning signs that occurred within 1 day of a suicide attempt. Transcripts of cognitive therapy sessions from 35 patients who attempted suicide were analyzed using a modified grounded theory approach. Cognitive themes emerging from these transcripts included: state hopelessness, focus on escape, suicide as a solution, fixation on suicide, and aloneness. Differences in demographic and baseline diagnostic and symptom data were explored in relation to each cognitive theme. We propose a potential conceptual model of cognitive warning signs for suicide attempts that requires further testing.

  20. Exposure to a mnemonic interferes with recall of suicide warning signs in a community-based suicide prevention program.

    PubMed

    Bryan, Craig J; Steiner-Pappalardo, Nicole; Rudd, M David

    2009-04-01

    The incremental impact of adding a mnemonic to remember suicide warning signs to the Air Force Suicide Prevention Program (AFSPP) community awareness briefing was investigated with a sample of young, junior-enlisted airmen. Participants in the standard briefing significantly increased their ability to list suicide warning signs and improved consistency with an expert consensus list, whereas participants in the standard briefing plus mnemonic demonstrated no learning. Both groups demonstrated positive changes in beliefs about suicide. Results suggest that inclusion of the mnemonic in the AFSPP briefing interfered with participants' ability to learn suicide warning signs, and that increased confidence in the perceived ability to recognize suicide risk is not related to actual ability to accurately recall warning signs.

  1. Bradycardia as an early warning sign for cardiac arrest during routine laparoscopic surgery.

    PubMed

    Yong, Jonathan; Hibbert, Peter; Runciman, William B; Coventry, Brendon J

    2015-12-01

    The aim of this study was to identify clinical patterns of occurrence, management and outcomes surrounding cardiac arrest during laparoscopic surgery using the Australian Incident Monitoring Study (AIMS) database to guide possible prevention and treatment. The AIMS database includes incident reports from participating clinicians from secondary and tertiary healthcare centres across Australia and New Zealand. The AIMS database holds over 11 000 peri- and intraoperative incidents. The primary outcome was to characterize the pattern of events surrounding cardiac arrest. The secondary outcome was to identify successful management strategies in the possible prevention and treatment of cardiac arrest during laparoscopic surgery. Fourteen cases of cardiac arrest during laparoscopic surgery were identified. The majority of cases occurred in 'fit and healthy' patients during elective gynaecological and general surgical procedures. Twelve cases of cardiac arrest were directly associated with pneumoperitoneum with bradycardia preceding cardiac arrest in 75% of these. Management included deflation of pneumoperitoneum, atropine administration and cardiopulmonary resuscitation with circulatory restoration in all cases. The results imply vagal mechanisms associated with peritoneal distension as the predominant contributor to bradycardia and subsequent cardiac arrest during laparoscopy. Bradycardia during gas insufflation is not necessarily a benign event and appears to be a critical early warning sign for possible impending and unexpected cardiac arrest. Immediate deflation of pneumoperitoneum and atropine administration are effective measures that may alleviate bradycardia and possibly avert progression to cardiac arrest. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care; all rights reserved.

  2. Earthquake Early Warning and Public Policy: Opportunities and Challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goltz, J. D.; Bourque, L.; Tierney, K.; Riopelle, D.; Shoaf, K.; Seligson, H.; Flores, P.

    2003-12-01

    Development of an earthquake early warning capability and pilot project were objectives of TriNet, a 5-year (1997-2001) FEMA-funded project to develop a state-of-the-art digital seismic network in southern California. In parallel with research to assemble a protocol for rapid analysis of earthquake data and transmission of a signal by TriNet scientists and engineers, the public policy, communication and educational issues inherent in implementation of an earthquake early warning system were addressed by TriNet's outreach component. These studies included: 1) a survey that identified potential users of an earthquake early warning system and how an earthquake early warning might be used in responding to an event, 2) a review of warning systems and communication issues associated with other natural hazards and how lessons learned might be applied to an alerting system for earthquakes, 3) an analysis of organization, management and public policy issues that must be addressed if a broad-based warning system is to be developed and 4) a plan to provide earthquake early warnings to a small number of organizations in southern California as an experimental prototype. These studies provided needed insights into the social and cultural environment in which this new technology will be introduced, an environment with opportunities to enhance our response capabilities but also an environment with significant barriers to overcome to achieve a system that can be sustained and supported. In this presentation we will address the main public policy issues that were subjects of analysis in these studies. They include a discussion of the possible division of functions among organizations likely to be the principle partners in the management of an earthquake early warning system. Drawing on lessons learned from warning systems for other hazards, we will review the potential impacts of false alarms and missed events on warning system credibility, the acceptability of fully automated

  3. Do Simple Warning Signs Enhance the Use of Stairs?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aksay, Ebubekir

    2014-01-01

    Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the use of stairways/moving stairways in shopping malls and examine the extent to which simple warning signs determined whether people took the stairs. Design: Large posters that could readily be seen by mall visitors were situated between the stairs and moving stairways in shopping malls.…

  4. Evaluation of a radar activated speed warning sign for school zone speed control.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2004-01-01

    During the fall of 2003, the Maine Department of Transportation tested a radar-activated speed warning : sign at two different locations in different towns near elementary schools. The sign was manufactured by : 3M and was loaned to MaineDOT for test...

  5. Early warning system for aftershocks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bakun, W.H.; Fischer, F.G.; Jensen, E.G.; VanSchaack, J.

    1994-01-01

    A prototype early warning system to provide San Francisco and Oakland, California a few tens-of-seconds warning of incoming strong ground shaking from already-occurred M ≧ 3.7 aftershocks of the magnitude 7.1 17 October 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake was operational on 28 October 1989. The prototype system consisted of four components: ground motion sensors in the epicentral area, a central receiver, a radio repeater, and radio receivers. One of the radio receivers was deployed at the California Department of Transportation (CALTRANS) headquarters at the damaged Cypress Street section of the I-880 freeway in Oakland, California on 28 October 1989 and provided about 20 sec of warning before shaking from the M 4.5 Loma Prieta aftershock that occurred on 2 November 1989 at 0550 UTC. In its first 6 months of operation, the system generated triggers for all 12 M > 3.7 aftershocks for which trigger documentation is preserved, did not trigger on any M ≦ 3.6 aftershocks, and produced one false trigger as a result of a now-corrected single point of failure design flaw. Because the prototype system demonstrated that potentially useful warnings of strong shaking from aftershocks are feasible, the USGS has completed a portable early warning system for aftershocks that can be deployed anywhere.

  6. The Warning Signs of Learning Disabilities. ERIC Digest #E603.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bergert, Susan

    This brief paper summarizes warning signs of learning disabilities in preschool children, elementary school children, and secondary school children. It notes that learning disabilities are presumed to arise from dysfunctions in the brain resulting in significant difficulties in perceiving information, processing and/or remembering information,…

  7. 30 CFR 57.19108 - Posting warning signs during shaft work.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Posting warning signs during shaft work. 57.19108 Section 57.19108 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR METAL AND NONMETAL MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH SAFETY AND HEALTH STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND METAL AND NONMETAL...

  8. A SDMS Model: Early Warning Coordination Centres

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos-Reyes, Jaime

    2010-05-01

    Following the tsunami disaster in 2004, the General Secretary of the United Nations (UN) Kofi Annan called for a global early warning system for all hazards and for all communities. He also requested the ISDR (International Strategy fort Disaster Reduction) and its UN partners to conduct a global survey of capacities, gaps and opportunities in relation to early warning systems. The produced report, "Global survey of Early Warning Systems", concluded that there are many gaps and shortcomings and that much progress has been made on early warning systems and great capabilities are available around the world. However, it may be argued that an early warning system (EWS) may not be enough to prevent fatalities due to a natural hazard; i.e., it should be seen as part of a ‘wider' or total system. Furthermore, an EWS may work very well when assessed individually but it is not clear whether it will contribute to accomplish the purpose of the ‘total disaster management system'; i.e., to prevent fatalities. For instance, a regional EWS may only work if it is well co-ordinated with the local warning and emergency response systems that ensure that the warning is received, communicated and acted upon by the potentially affected communities. It may be argued that without these local measures being in place, a regional EWS will have little impact in saving lives. Researchers argued that unless people are warned in remote areas, the technology is useless; for instance McGuire [5] argues that: "I have no doubt that the technical element of the warning system will work very well,"…"But there has to be an effective and efficient communications cascade from the warning centre to the fisherman on the beach and his family and the bar owners." Similarly, McFadden [6] states that: "There's no point in spending all the money on a fancy monitoring and a fancy analysis system unless we can make sure the infrastructure for the broadcast system is there,"… "That's going to require a lot

  9. Estimation for aerial detection effectiveness with cooperation efficiency factors of early-warning aircraft in early-warning detection SoS under BSC framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Feng; Hu, Xiaofeng; He, Xiaoyuan; Guo, Rui; Li, Kaiming; Yang, Lu

    2017-11-01

    In the military field, the performance evaluation of early-warning aircraft deployment or construction is always an important problem needing to be explored. As an effective approach of enterprise management and performance evaluation, Balanced Score Card (BSC) attracts more and more attentions and is studied more and more widely all over the world. It can also bring feasible ideas and technical approaches for studying the issue of the performance evaluation of the deployment or construction of early-warning aircraft which is the important component in early-warning detection system of systems (SoS). Therefore, the deep explored researches are carried out based on the previously research works. On the basis of the characteristics of space exploration and aerial detection effectiveness of early-warning detection SoS and the cardinal principle of BSC are analyzed simply, and the performance evaluation framework of the deployment or construction of early-warning aircraft is given, under this framework, aimed at the evaluation issue of aerial detection effectiveness of early-warning detection SoS with the cooperation efficiency factors of the early-warning aircraft and other land based radars, the evaluation indexes are further designed and the relative evaluation model is further established, especially the evaluation radar chart being also drawn to obtain the evaluation results from a direct sight angle. Finally, some practical computer simulations are launched to prove the validity and feasibility of the research thinking and technologic approaches which are proposed in the paper.

  10. Uniform Traffic Control and Warning Messages for Portable Changeable Message Signs

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1996-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop and test word and symbol traffic control and hazard warning messages for use on portable changeable message signs (PCMSs). The literature was reviewed, State highway engineers were interviewed, PCMS manufactur...

  11. Managing Risks? Early Warning Systems for Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sitati, A. M.; Zommers, Z. A.; Habilov, M.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning systems are a tool with which to minimize risks posed by climate related hazards. Although great strides have been made in developing early warning systems most deal with one hazard, only provide short-term warnings and do not reach the most vulnerable. This presentation will review research results of the United Nations Environment Programme's CLIM-WARN project. The project seeks to identify how governments can better communicate risks by designing multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver actionable warnings across timescales. Household surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso in order to identify relevant climate related hazards, current response strategies and early warning needs. Preliminary results show significant variability in both risks and needs within and between countries. For instance, floods are more frequent in rural western parts of Kenya. Droughts are frequent in the north while populations in urban areas face a range of hazards - floods, droughts, disease outbreaks - that sometimes occur simultaneously. The majority of the rural population, especially women, the disabled and the elderly, do not have access to modern media such as radio, television, or internet. While 55% of rural populace never watches television, 64% of urban respondents watch television on a daily basis. Communities have different concepts of how to design warning systems. It will be a challenge for national governments to create systems that accommodate such diversity yet provide standard quality of service to all. There is a need for flexible and forward-looking early warning systems that deliver broader information about risks. Information disseminated through the system could not only include details of hazards, but also long-term adaptation options, general education, and health information, thus increasingly both capabilities and response options.

  12. Self-reported awareness of the presence of product warning messages and signs by Hispanics in San Francisco.

    PubMed Central

    Marín, G

    1994-01-01

    This study investigated the self-reported awareness of the presence of product warning messages and signs among random samples of Hispanics in San Francisco surveyed in 1990 and in 1991. The messages that were tested related to cigarettes, alcoholic beverages, and other consumer products. A random sample of 1,204 Hispanics (43.5 percent males) were interviewed by telephone in 1990. The corresponding figure for the second survey in 1991 was 1,569 Hispanics (41.1 percent males). In general, respondents reported low levels of awareness of the presence of product warning messages and signs. The exception was warning messages on cigarette packets which approximately 70 percent of the respondents reported having seen within the 12 months before the survey. There was an increase from 1990 to 1991 in the reported awareness of warning messages for wine, beer, and cigarettes. Smokers and drinkers of alcoholic beverages reported the highest levels of awareness of the relevant warning messages and signs. Length of exposure to warning messages and multiplicity of sources (for example, advertisements and products) seem to produce greater levels of awareness of the presence of product warning messages. Less acculturated, Spanish-speaking Hispanics are less likely to report being aware of the warnings, particularly those that appear only in English (for example, alcoholic beverages). PMID:8153279

  13. Awareness and impact of New York City's graphic point-of-sale tobacco health warning signs.

    PubMed

    Coady, Micaela H; Chan, Christina A; Auer, Kari; Farley, Shannon M; Kilgore, Elizabeth A; Kansagra, Susan M

    2013-05-01

    To increase knowledge of smoking-related health risks and provide smoking cessation information at the point of sale, in 2009, New York City required the posting of graphic point-of-sale tobacco health warnings in tobacco retailers. This study is the first to evaluate the impact of such a policy in the USA. Cross-sectional street-intercept surveys conducted among adult current smokers and recent quitters before and after signage implementation assessed the awareness and impact of the signs. Approximately 10 street-intercept surveys were conducted at each of 50 tobacco retailers in New York City before and after policy implementation. A total of 1007 adults who were either current smokers or recent quitters were surveyed about the awareness and impact of tobacco health warning signs. Multivariate risk ratios (RR) were calculated to estimate awareness and impact of the signs. Most participants (86%) were current smokers, and the sample was 28% African-American, 32% Hispanic/Latino and 27% non-Hispanic white. Awareness of tobacco health warning signs more than doubled after the policy implementation (adjusted RR =2.01, 95% CI 1.74 to 2.33). Signage posting was associated with an 11% increase in the extent to which signs made respondents think about quitting smoking (adjusted RR =1.11, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.22). A policy requiring tobacco retailers to display graphic health warning signs increased awareness of health risks of smoking and stimulated thoughts about quitting smoking. Additional research aimed at evaluating the effect of tobacco control measures in the retail environment is necessary to provide further rationale for implementing these changes.

  14. Air quality early-warning system for cities in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Yunzhen; Yang, Wendong; Wang, Jianzhou

    2017-01-01

    Air pollution has become a serious issue in many developing countries, especially in China, and could generate adverse effects on human beings. Air quality early-warning systems play an increasingly significant role in regulatory plans that reduce and control emissions of air pollutants and inform the public in advance when harmful air pollution is foreseen. However, building a robust early-warning system that will improve the ability of early-warning is not only a challenge but also a critical issue for the entire society. Relevant research is still poor in China and cannot always satisfy the growing requirements of regulatory planning, despite the issue's significance. Therefore, in this paper, a hybrid air quality early-warning system was successfully developed, composed of forecasting and evaluation. First, a hybrid forecasting model was proposed as an important part of this system based on the theory of "decomposition and ensemble" and combined with the advanced data processing technique, support vector machine, the latest bio-inspired optimization algorithm and the leave-one-out strategy for deciding weights. Afterwards, to intensify the research, fuzzy evaluation was performed, which also plays an indispensable role in the early-warning system. The forecasting model and fuzzy evaluation approaches are complementary. Case studies using daily air pollution concentrations of six air pollutants from three cities in China (i.e., Taiyuan, Harbin and Chongqing) are used as examples to evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness of the developed air quality early-warning system. Experimental results demonstrate that both the accuracy and the effectiveness of the developed system are greatly superior for air quality early warning. Furthermore, the application of forecasting and evaluation enables the informative and effective quantification of future air quality, offering a significant advantage, and can be employed to develop rapid air quality early-warning systems.

  15. Exposure to a Mnemonic Interferes with Recall of Suicide Warning Signs in a Community-Based Suicide Prevention Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bryan, Craig J.; Steiner-Pappalardo, Nicole; Rudd, M. David

    2009-01-01

    The incremental impact of adding a mnemonic to remember suicide warning signs to the Air Force Suicide Prevention Program (AFSPP) community awareness briefing was investigated with a sample of young, junior-enlisted airmen. Participants in the standard briefing significantly increased their ability to list suicide warning signs and improved…

  16. Maternal bacteremia and the Irish maternity early warning system.

    PubMed

    Maguire, Patrick J; O'Higgins, Amy C; Power, Karen A; Daly, Niamh; McKeating, Aoife; Turner, Michael J

    2015-05-01

    To assess whether introduction of the Irish maternity early warning system (IMEWS) in 2013 has improved the recording of vital signs among women with proven maternal bacteremia. In a mixed retrospective and prospective study at a single center in Dublin, Ireland, the patient records of all cases of maternal bacteremia between January 1, 2009, and March 31, 2014, were reviewed. The IMEWS chart was applied retrospectively to records of vital signs from January 2009 to March 2013, and prospectively from April 2013 to March 2014. For the 61 cases from the period before IMEWS introduction, vital signs were recorded inconsistently on multiple pages. The frequency of recordings was not standardized. Respiratory rate, in particular, was under-recorded. Among the 17 cases between April 2013 and March 2014 that were eligible for IMEWS chart use, 14 women had vital signs recorded on an IMEWS chart. As compared with the period before IMEWS introduction, there was an improvement in respiratory rate recording as part of the first set of observations. Among pregnant women with proven bacteremia, introduction of IMEWS has been associated with an improvement in the recording of vital signs, particularly respiratory rate. Copyright © 2015 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Accuracy of a pediatric early warning score in the recognition of clinical deterioration.

    PubMed

    Miranda, Juliana de Oliveira Freitas; Camargo, Climene Laura de; Nascimento, Carlito Lopes; Portela, Daniel Sales; Monaghan, Alan

    2017-07-10

    to evaluate the accuracy of the version of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score translated and adapted for the Brazilian context, in the recognition of clinical deterioration. a diagnostic test study to measure the accuracy of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, in relation to a reference standard. The sample consisted of 271 children, aged 0 to 10 years, blindly evaluated by a nurse and a physician, specialists in pediatrics, with interval of 5 to 10 minutes between the evaluations, for the application of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context and of the reference standard. The data were processed and analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences and VassarStats.net programs. The performance of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context was evaluated through the indicators of sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, area under the ROC curve, likelihood ratios and post-test probability. the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context showed sensitivity of 73.9%, specificity of 95.5%, positive predictive value of 73.3%, negative predictive value of 94.7%, area under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve of 91.9% and the positive post-test probability was 80%. the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, presented good performance, considered valid for the recognition of clinical deterioration warning signs of the children studied. avaliar a acurácia da versão traduzida e adaptada do Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para o contexto brasileiro, no reconhecimento da deterioração clínica. estudo de teste diagnóstico para medir a acurácia do Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score, para o contexto brasileiro, em relação a um padrão de referência. A amostra foi composta por 271 crianças de 0 a 10 anos, avaliadas de forma cega por uma enfermeira e um médico, especialistas em pediatria, com

  18. Early Warning System Implementation Guide: For Use with the National High School Center's Early Warning System Tool v2.0

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Therriault, Susan Bowles; Heppen, Jessica; O'Cummings, Mindee; Fryer, Lindsay; Johnson, Amy

    2010-01-01

    This Early Warning System (EWS) Implementation Guide is a supporting document for schools and districts that are implementing the National High School Center's Early Warning System (EWS) Tool v2.0. Developed by the National High School Center at the American Institutes for Research (AIR), the guide and tool support the establishment and…

  19. Exploring Vital Sign Data Quality in Electronic Health Records with Focus on Emergency Care Warning Scores.

    PubMed

    Skyttberg, Niclas; Chen, Rong; Blomqvist, Hans; Koch, Sabine

    2017-08-30

    Computerized clinical decision support and automation of warnings have been advocated to assist clinicians in detecting patients at risk of physiological instability. To provide reliable support such systems are dependent on high-quality vital sign data. Data quality depends on how, when and why the data is captured and/or documented. This study aims to describe the effects on data quality of vital signs by three different types of documentation practices in five Swedish emergency hospitals, and to assess data fitness for calculating warning and triage scores. The study also provides reference data on triage vital signs in Swedish emergency care. We extracted a dataset including vital signs, demographic and administrative data from emergency care visits (n=335027) at five Swedish emergency hospitals during 2013 using either completely paper-based, completely electronic or mixed documentation practices. Descriptive statistics were used to assess fitness for use in emergency care decision support systems aiming to calculate warning and triage scores, and data quality was described in three categories: currency, completeness and correctness. To estimate correctness, two further categories - plausibility and concordance - were used. The study showed an acceptable correctness of the registered vital signs irrespectively of the type of documentation practice. Completeness was high in sites where registrations were routinely entered into the Electronic Health Record (EHR). The currency was only acceptable in sites with a completely electronic documentation practice. Although vital signs that were recorded in completely electronic documentation practices showed plausible results regarding correctness, completeness and currency, the study concludes that vital signs documented in Swedish emergency care EHRs cannot generally be considered fit for use for calculation of triage and warning scores. Low completeness and currency were found if the documentation was not completely

  20. Early warning of changing drinking water quality by trend analysis.

    PubMed

    Tomperi, Jani; Juuso, Esko; Leiviskä, Kauko

    2016-06-01

    Monitoring and control of water treatment plants play an essential role in ensuring high quality drinking water and avoiding health-related problems or economic losses. The most common quality variables, which can be used also for assessing the efficiency of the water treatment process, are turbidity and residual levels of coagulation and disinfection chemicals. In the present study, the trend indices are developed from scaled measurements to detect warning signs of changes in the quality variables of drinking water and some operating condition variables that strongly affect water quality. The scaling is based on monotonically increasing nonlinear functions, which are generated with generalized norms and moments. Triangular episodes are classified with the trend index and its derivative. Deviation indices are used to assess the severity of situations. The study shows the potential of the described trend analysis as a predictive monitoring tool, as it provides an advantage over the traditional manual inspection of variables by detecting changes in water quality and giving early warnings.

  1. Experimental Design for Evaluating the Safety Benefits of Railroad Advance Warning Signs

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1979-04-01

    The report presents the findings and conclusions of a study to develop an experimental design and analysis plan for field testing and evaluation of the accident reduction potential of a proposed new railroad grade crossing advance warning sign. Sever...

  2. Do warning signs on electronic gaming machines influence irrational cognitions?

    PubMed

    Monaghan, Sally; Blaszczynski, Alex; Nower, Lia

    2009-08-01

    Electronic gaming machines are popular among problem gamblers; in response, governments have introduced "responsible gaming" legislation incorporating the mandatory display of warning signs on or near electronic gaming machines. These signs are designed to correct irrational and erroneous beliefs through the provision of accurate information on probabilities of winning and the concept of randomness. There is minimal empirical data evaluating the effectiveness of such signs. In this study, 93 undergraduate students were randomly allocated to standard and informative messages displayed on an electronic gaming machine during play in a laboratory setting. Results revealed that a majority of participants incorrectly estimated gambling odds and reported irrational gambling-related cognitions prior to play. In addition, there were no significant between-group differences, and few participants recalled the content of messages or modified their gambling-related cognitions. Signs placed on electronic gaming machines may not modify irrational beliefs or alter gambling behaviour.

  3. Study on Early-Warning System of Cotton Production in Hebei Province

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Runqing; Ma, Teng

    Cotton production plays an important role in Hebei. It straightly influences cotton farmers’ life, agricultural production and national economic development as well. In recent years, due to cotton production frequently fluctuating, two situations, “difficult selling cotton” and “difficult buying cotton” have alternately occurred, and brought disadvantages to producers, businesses and national finance. Therefore, it is very crucial to research the early warning of cotton production for solving the problem of cotton production’s frequent fluctuation and ensuring the cotton industry’s sustainable development. This paper founds a signal lamp model of early warning through employing time-difference correlation analysis method to select early-warning indicators and statistical analysis method associated with empirical analysis to determine early-warning limits. Finally, it not only obtained warning conditions of cotton production from 1993 to 2006 and forecast 2007’s condition, but also put forward corresponding countermeasures to prevent cotton production from fluctuating. Furthermore, an early-warning software of cotton production is completed through computer programming on the basis of the early warning model above.

  4. Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Clear Air Force Station, ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    Ballistic Missile Early Warning System - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

  5. Alaskan Air Defense and Early Warning Systems Clear Air ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    Alaskan Air Defense and Early Warning Systems - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

  6. Vital signs and other observations used to detect deterioration in pregnant women: an analysis of vital sign charts in consultant-led UK maternity units.

    PubMed

    Smith, G B; Isaacs, R; Andrews, L; Wee, M Y K; van Teijlingen, E; Bick, D E; Hundley, V

    2017-05-01

    Obstetric early warning systems are recommended for monitoring hospitalised pregnant and postnatal women. We decided to compare: (i) vital sign values used to define physiological normality; (ii) symptoms and signs used to escalate care; (iii) type of chart used; and (iv) presence of explicit instructions for escalating care. One-hundred-and-twenty obstetric early warning charts and escalation protocols were obtained from consultant-led maternity units in the UK and Channel Islands. These data were extracted: values used to determine normality for each maternal vital sign; chart colour-coding; instructions following early warning system triggering; other criteria used as triggers. There was considerable variation in the charts, warning systems and escalation protocols. Of 120 charts, 89.2% used colour; 69.2% used colour-coded escalation systems. Forty-one (34.2%) systems required the calculation of weighted scores. Seventy-five discrete combinations of 'normal' vital sign ranges were found, the most common being: heart rate=50-99beats/min; respiratory rate=11-20breaths/min; blood pressure, systolic=100-149mmHg, diastolic ≤89mmHg; SpO 2 =95-100%; temperature=36.0-37.9°C; and Alert-Voice-Pain-Unresponsive assessment=Alert. Most charts (90.8%) provided instructions about who to contact following triggering, but only 41.7% gave instructions about subsequent observation frequency. The wide range of 'normal' vital sign values in different systems suggests a lack of equity in the processes for detecting deterioration and escalating care in hospitalised pregnant and postnatal women. Agreement regarding 'normal' vital sign ranges is urgently required and would assist the development of a standardised obstetric early warning system and chart. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Early warnings, weak signals and learning from healthcare disasters.

    PubMed

    Macrae, Carl

    2014-06-01

    In the wake of healthcare disasters, such as the appalling failures of care uncovered in Mid Staffordshire, inquiries and investigations often point to a litany of early warnings and weak signals that were missed, misunderstood or discounted by the professionals and organisations charged with monitoring the safety and quality of care. Some of the most urgent challenges facing those responsible for improving and regulating patient safety are therefore how to identify, interpret, integrate and act on the early warnings and weak signals of emerging risks-before those risks contribute to a disastrous failure of care. These challenges are fundamentally organisational and cultural: they relate to what information is routinely noticed, communicated and attended to within and between healthcare organisations-and, most critically, what is assumed and ignored. Analysing these organisational and cultural challenges suggests three practical ways that healthcare organisations and their regulators can improve safety and address emerging risks. First, engage in practices that actively produce and amplify fleeting signs of ignorance. Second, work to continually define and update a set of specific fears of failure. And third, routinely uncover and publicly circulate knowledge on the sources of systemic risks to patient safety and the improvements required to address them. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  8. Landslide risk mitigation by means of early warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvello, Michele

    2017-04-01

    Among the many options available to mitigate landslide risk, early warning systems may be used where, in specific circumstances, the risk to life increases above tolerable levels. A coherent framework to classify and analyse landslide early warning systems (LEWS) is herein presented. Once the objectives of an early warning strategy are defined depending on the scale of analysis and the type of landslides to address, the process of designing and managing a LEWS should synergically employ technical and social skills. A classification scheme for the main components of LEWSs is proposed for weather-induced landslides. The scheme is based on a clear distinction among: i) the landslide model, i.e. a functional relationship between weather characteristics and landslide events considering the geotechnical, geomorphological and hydro-geological characterization of the area as well as an adequate monitoring strategy; ii) the warning model, i.e. the landslide model plus procedures to define the warning events and to issue the warnings; iii) the warning system, i.e. the warning model plus warning dissemination procedures, communication and education tools, strategies for community involvement and emergency plans. Each component of a LEWS is related to a number of actors involved with their deployment, operational activities and management. For instance, communication and education, community involvement and emergency plans are all significantly influenced by people's risk perception and by operational aspects system managers need to address in cooperation with scientists.

  9. 10 Early Signs and Symptoms of Alzheimer's

    MedlinePlus

    ... causes a slow decline in memory, thinking and reasoning skills. There are 10 warning signs and symptoms. ... may also increase your chances of participating in clinical drug trials that help advance research. > Learn more ...

  10. Combinations of early signs of critical illness predict in-hospital death-the SOCCER study (signs of critical conditions and emergency responses).

    PubMed

    Harrison, Gordon A; Jacques, Theresa; McLaws, Mary-Louise; Kilborn, Gabrielle

    2006-12-01

    Medical emergency team (MET) call criteria are late signs of a deteriorating clinical condition. Some early signs predict in-hospital death but have a high prevalence so their use as single sign call criteria could be wasteful of resources. This study searched a large database to explore the association of combinations of recordings of early signs (ES), or early with late signs (LS) with in-hospital death. A cross-sectional survey was undertaken of 3046 non-do not attempt resuscitation adult admissions in 5 hospitals without MET over 14 days. The medical records were reviewed for recordings of 26 ES and 21 LS and in-hospital death. Combinations of ES with or without LS were examined as predictors of death. Global modified early warning scores (GMEWS) were calculated. ES with LS, plus LS only, had higher odd ratios than ES alone. Four combinations of ES were strongly associated with death: cardiovascular plus respiratory with decrease in urinary output, cardiovascular plus respiratory with a decrease in consciousness, respiratory with decrease in urinary output, and cardiovascular plus respiratory. In other combinations, recordings of SpO2 90-95%, systolic blood pressure 80-100 mmHg or decrease in urinary output in turn occurring with one or more disturbed blood gas variable were associated with death. Compared with admissions whose GMEWS were 0-2, admissions with GMEWS 5-15 were 27.1 times more likely to die while those with GMEWS 3-4 were 6.5 times more likely. The results support the inclusion of early signs of a deteriorating clinical condition in sets of call criteria.

  11. Urban Flood Prevention and Early Warning System in Jinan City

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Shiyuan; Li, Qingguo

    2018-06-01

    The system construction of urban flood control and disaster reduction in China is facing pressure and challenge from new urban water disaster. Under the circumstances that it is difficult to build high standards of flood protection engineering measures in urban areas, it is particularly important to carry out urban flood early warning. In Jinan City, a representative inland area, based on the index system of early warning of flood in Jinan urban area, the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was adopted to evaluate the level of early warning. Based on the cumulative rainfall of 3 hours, the CAflood simulation results based on cellular automaton model of urban flooding were used as evaluation indexes to realize the accuracy and integration of urban flood control early warning.

  12. Towards a certification process for tsunami early warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Löwe, Peter; Wächter, Jochen; Hammitzsch, Martin

    2013-04-01

    The natural disaster of the Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 was followed by an information catastrophe. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages in a proven workflow. A second challenge stems from the main objective of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC) Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from individual sensors, to Warning Centers within their particular end-to-end Warning System Environments, and up to federated Systems of Tsunami Warning Systems has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CeGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already, being the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS). This activity is continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7

  13. Preparing for floods: flood forecasting and early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cloke, Hannah

    2016-04-01

    Flood forecasting and early warning has continued to stride ahead in strengthening the preparedness phases of disaster risk management, saving lives and property and reducing the overall impact of severe flood events. For example, continental and global scale flood forecasting systems such as the European Flood Awareness System and the Global Flood Awareness System provide early information about upcoming floods in real time to various decisionmakers. Studies have found that there are monetary benefits to implementing these early flood warning systems, and with the science also in place to provide evidence of benefit and hydrometeorological institutional outlooks warming to the use of probabilistic forecasts, the uptake over the last decade has been rapid and sustained. However, there are many further challenges that lie ahead to improve the science supporting flood early warning and to ensure that appropriate decisions are made to maximise flood preparedness.

  14. Sensors Provide Early Warning of Biological Threats

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2009-01-01

    Early Warning Inc. of Troy, New York, licensed powerful biosensor technology from Ames Research Center. Incorporating carbon nanotubes tipped with single strands of nucleic acid from waterborne pathogens, the sensor can detect even minute amounts of targeted, disease causing bacteria, viruses, and parasites. Early Warning features the NASA biosensor in its water analyzer, which can provide advance alert of potential biological hazards in water used for agriculture, food and beverages, showers, and at beaches and lakes -- within hours instead of the days required by conventional laboratory methods.

  15. Knowledge of Stroke Risk Factors and Warning Signs in Patients with Recurrent Stroke or Recurrent Transient Ischaemic Attack in Thailand.

    PubMed

    Saengsuwan, Jittima; Suangpho, Pathitta; Tiamkao, Somsak

    2017-01-01

    Stroke is a global burden. It is not known whether patients who are most at risk of stroke (recurrent stroke or recurrent transient ischaemic attack) have enough knowledge of stroke risk factors and warning signs. The aim of this study was to assess the knowledge of stroke risk factors and warning signs in this high-risk population. We performed a cross-sectional questionnaire-based study of patients with recurrent stroke or recurrent TIA admitted to Srinagarind Hospital and Khon Kaen Hospital, Thailand. A total of 140 patients were included in the study (age 65.6 ± 11.3 years [mean ± SD], 62 females). Using an open-ended questionnaire, nearly one-third of patients (31.4%) could not name any risk factors for stroke. The most commonly recognized risk factors were hypertension (35%), dyslipidemia (28.6%), and diabetes (22.9%). Regarding stroke warning signs, the most commonly recognized warning signs were sudden unilateral weakness (61.4%), sudden trouble with speaking (25.7%), and sudden trouble with walking, loss of balance, or dizziness (21.4%). Nineteen patients (13.6%) could not identify any warning signs. The results showed that knowledge of stroke obtained from open-ended questionnaires is still unsatisfactory. The healthcare provider should provide structured interventions to increase knowledge and awareness of stroke in these patients.

  16. The effect of adult Early Warning Systems education on nurses' knowledge, confidence and clinical performance: A systematic review.

    PubMed

    Saab, Mohamad M; McCarthy, Bridie; Andrews, Tom; Savage, Eileen; Drummond, Frances J; Walshe, Nuala; Forde, Mary; Breen, Dorothy; Henn, Patrick; Drennan, Jonathan; Hegarty, Josephine

    2017-11-01

    This review aims to determine the effect of adult Early Warning Systems education on nurses' knowledge, confidence and clinical performance. Early Warning Systems support timely identification of clinical deterioration and prevention of avoidable deaths. Several educational programmes have been designed to help nurses recognize and manage deteriorating patients. Little is known as to the effectiveness of these programmes. Systematic review. Academic Search Complete, CINAHL, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, PsycARTICLES, Psychology and Behavioral Science Collection, SocINDEX and the UK & Ireland Reference Centre, EMBASE, the Turning Research Into Practice database, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and Grey Literature sources were searched between October and November 2015. This is a quantitative systematic review using Cochrane methods. Studies published between January 2011 - November 2015 in English were sought. The risk of bias, level of evidence and the quality of evidence per outcome were assessed. Eleven articles with 10 studies were included. Nine studies addressed clinical performance, four addressed knowledge and two addressed confidence. Knowledge, vital signs recording and Early Warning Score calculation were improved in the short term. Two interventions had no effect on nurses' response to clinical deterioration and use of communication tools. This review highlights the importance of measuring outcomes using standardized tools and valid and reliable instruments. Using longitudinal designs, researchers are encouraged to investigate the effect of Early Warning Systems educational programmes. These can include interactive e-learning, on-site interdisciplinary Early Warning Scoring systems training sessions and simulated scenarios. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. 46 CFR 147A.31 - Removal of fumigation material and warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 5 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Removal of fumigation material and warning signs. 147A.31 Section 147A.31 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) DANGEROUS CARGOES INTERIM REGULATIONS FOR SHIPBOARD FUMIGATION After Ventilation § 147A.31 Removal of fumigation...

  18. 46 CFR 147A.31 - Removal of fumigation material and warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 5 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Removal of fumigation material and warning signs. 147A.31 Section 147A.31 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) DANGEROUS CARGOES INTERIM REGULATIONS FOR SHIPBOARD FUMIGATION After Ventilation § 147A.31 Removal of fumigation...

  19. Neonatal Early Warning Tools for recognising and responding to clinical deterioration in neonates cared for in the maternity setting: A retrospective case-control study.

    PubMed

    Paliwoda, Michelle; New, Karen; Bogossian, Fiona

    2016-09-01

    All newborns are at risk of deterioration as a result of failing to make the transition to extra uterine life. Signs of deterioration can be subtle and easily missed. It has been postulated that the use of an Early Warning Tool may assist clinicians in recognising and responding to signs of deterioration earlier in neonates, thereby preventing a serious adverse event. To examine whether observations from a Standard Observation Tool, applied to three neonatal Early Warning Tools, would hypothetically trigger an escalation of care more frequently than actual escalation of care using the Standard Observation Tool. A retrospective case-control study. A maternity unit in a tertiary public hospital in Australia. Neonates born in 2013 of greater than or equal to 34(+0) weeks gestation, admitted directly to the maternity ward from their birthing location and whose subsequent deterioration required admission to the neonatal unit, were identified as cases from databases of the study hospital. Each case was matched with three controls, inborn during the same period and who did not experience deterioration and neonatal unit admission. Clinical and physiological data recorded on a Standard Observation Tool, from time of admission to the maternity ward, for cases and controls were charted onto each of three Early Warning Tools. The primary outcome was whether the tool 'triggered an escalation of care'. Descriptive statistics (n, %, Mean and SD) were employed. Cases (n=26) comprised late preterm, early term and post-term neonates and matched by gestational age group with 3 controls (n=78). Overall, the Standard Observation Tool triggered an escalation of care for 92.3% of cases compared to the Early Warning Tools; New South Wales Health 80.8%, United Kingdom Newborn Early Warning Chart 57.7% and The Australian Capital Territory Neonatal Early Warning Score 11.5%. Subgroup analysis by gestational age found differences between the tools in hypothetically triggering an escalation of

  20. Impact of social preparedness on flood early warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Girons Lopez, M.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Seibert, J.

    2017-01-01

    Flood early warning systems play a major role in the disaster risk reduction paradigm as cost-effective methods to mitigate flood disaster damage. The connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social spheres of early warning systems are increasingly being considered as key aspects for successful flood mitigation. The behavior of the public and first responders during flood situations, determined by their preparedness, is heavily influenced by many behavioral traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or even denial. In this study, we use the recency of flood experiences as a proxy for social preparedness to assess its impact on the efficiency of flood early warning systems through a simple stylized model and implemented this model using a simple mathematical description. The main findings, which are based on synthetic data, point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially in circumstances where the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. Furthermore, we found that efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings provide important insights into the role of social preparedness that may help guide decision-making in the field of flood early warning systems.

  1. The Financial Benefit of Early Flood Warnings in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Parker, Dennis J.; Richardson, David; Thielen, Jutta

    2015-04-01

    Effective disaster risk management relies on science based solutions to close the gap between prevention and preparedness measures. The outcome of consultations on the UNIDSR post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction highlight the need for cross-border early warning systems to strengthen the preparedness phases of disaster risk management in order to save people's lives and property and reduce the overall impact of severe events. In particular, continental and global scale flood forecasting systems provide vital information to various decision makers with which early warnings of floods can be made. Here the potential monetary benefits of early flood warnings using the example of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) are calculated based on pan-European Flood damage data and calculations of potential flood damage reductions. The benefits are of the order of 400 Euro for every 1 Euro invested. Because of the uncertainties which accompany the calculation, a large sensitivity analysis is performed in order to develop an envelope of possible financial benefits. Current EFAS system skill is compared against perfect forecasts to demonstrate the importance of further improving the skill of the forecasts. Improving the response to warnings is also essential in reaping the benefits of flood early warnings.

  2. Accuracy and Efficiency of Recording Pediatric Early Warning Scores Using an Electronic Physiological Surveillance System Compared With Traditional Paper-Based Documentation

    PubMed Central

    Sefton, Gerri; Lane, Steven; Killen, Roger; Black, Stuart; Lyon, Max; Ampah, Pearl; Sproule, Cathryn; Loren-Gosling, Dominic; Richards, Caitlin; Spinty, Jean; Holloway, Colette; Davies, Coral; Wilson, April; Chean, Chung Shen; Carter, Bernie; Carrol, E.D.

    2017-01-01

    Pediatric Early Warning Scores are advocated to assist health professionals to identify early signs of serious illness or deterioration in hospitalized children. Scores are derived from the weighting applied to recorded vital signs and clinical observations reflecting deviation from a predetermined “norm.” Higher aggregate scores trigger an escalation in care aimed at preventing critical deterioration. Process errors made while recording these data, including plotting or calculation errors, have the potential to impede the reliability of the score. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a controlled study of documentation using five clinical vignettes. We measured the accuracy of vital sign recording, score calculation, and time taken to complete documentation using a handheld electronic physiological surveillance system, VitalPAC Pediatric, compared with traditional paper-based charts. We explored the user acceptability of both methods using a Web-based survey. Twenty-three staff participated in the controlled study. The electronic physiological surveillance system improved the accuracy of vital sign recording, 98.5% versus 85.6%, P < .02, Pediatric Early Warning Score calculation, 94.6% versus 55.7%, P < .02, and saved time, 68 versus 98 seconds, compared with paper-based documentation, P < .002. Twenty-nine staff completed the Web-based survey. They perceived that the electronic physiological surveillance system offered safety benefits by reducing human error while providing instant visibility of recorded data to the entire clinical team. PMID:27832032

  3. Accuracy and Efficiency of Recording Pediatric Early Warning Scores Using an Electronic Physiological Surveillance System Compared With Traditional Paper-Based Documentation.

    PubMed

    Sefton, Gerri; Lane, Steven; Killen, Roger; Black, Stuart; Lyon, Max; Ampah, Pearl; Sproule, Cathryn; Loren-Gosling, Dominic; Richards, Caitlin; Spinty, Jean; Holloway, Colette; Davies, Coral; Wilson, April; Chean, Chung Shen; Carter, Bernie; Carrol, E D

    2017-05-01

    Pediatric Early Warning Scores are advocated to assist health professionals to identify early signs of serious illness or deterioration in hospitalized children. Scores are derived from the weighting applied to recorded vital signs and clinical observations reflecting deviation from a predetermined "norm." Higher aggregate scores trigger an escalation in care aimed at preventing critical deterioration. Process errors made while recording these data, including plotting or calculation errors, have the potential to impede the reliability of the score. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a controlled study of documentation using five clinical vignettes. We measured the accuracy of vital sign recording, score calculation, and time taken to complete documentation using a handheld electronic physiological surveillance system, VitalPAC Pediatric, compared with traditional paper-based charts. We explored the user acceptability of both methods using a Web-based survey. Twenty-three staff participated in the controlled study. The electronic physiological surveillance system improved the accuracy of vital sign recording, 98.5% versus 85.6%, P < .02, Pediatric Early Warning Score calculation, 94.6% versus 55.7%, P < .02, and saved time, 68 versus 98 seconds, compared with paper-based documentation, P < .002. Twenty-nine staff completed the Web-based survey. They perceived that the electronic physiological surveillance system offered safety benefits by reducing human error while providing instant visibility of recorded data to the entire clinical team.

  4. Technology-Based Early Warning Systems for Bipolar Disorder: A Conceptual Framework

    PubMed Central

    Torous, John; Thompson, Wesley

    2016-01-01

    Recognition and timely action around “warning signs” of illness exacerbation is central to the self-management of bipolar disorder. Due to its heterogeneity and fluctuating course, passive and active mobile technologies have been increasingly evaluated as adjunctive or standalone tools to predict and prevent risk of worsening of course in bipolar disorder. As predictive analytics approaches to big data from mobile health (mHealth) applications and ancillary sensors advance, it is likely that early warning systems will increasingly become available to patients. Such systems could reduce the amount of time spent experiencing symptoms and diminish the immense disability experienced by people with bipolar disorder. However, in addition to the challenges in validating such systems, we argue that early warning systems may not be without harms. Probabilistic warnings may be delivered to individuals who may not be able to interpret the warning, have limited information about what behaviors to change, or are unprepared to or cannot feasibly act due to time or logistic constraints. We propose five essential elements for early warning systems and provide a conceptual framework for designing, incorporating stakeholder input, and validating early warning systems for bipolar disorder with a focus on pragmatic considerations. PMID:27604265

  5. Using paid mass media to teach the warning signs of stroke: the long and the short of it.

    PubMed

    Hodgson, Corinne; Lindsay, Patrice; Rubini, Frank

    2009-04-01

    Stroke is a major cause of morbidity and mortality and rapid treatment is critical to patient outcomes. This paper looks at the effect of paid television advertising campaigns upon the general public's knowledge of the warning signs of stroke and emergency department (ED) stroke presentations. Data for the study includes results of nine random-digit dialing telephone surveys conducted among Ontario adults aged 45 and over. The mean number of ED presentations for all strokes and for transient ischemic attacks (TIA) were obtained from the Registry of the Canadian Stroke Network (RCSN). Polls indicated that long advertising campaigns were associated with significant increases in the public's knowledge of stroke warning signs, while shorter campaigns were associated with much smaller increases. Time (as represented by month) was the single most important factor determining the mean number of ED presentations for total stroke but was not for TIAs. Campaign status (on or off the air) had a strong and significant effect on ED presentations when the advertising campaigns were long; when the advertising campaigns were shortened, there was no campaign effect. Long, intermittent campaigns are effective in increasing the public's awareness of the warning signs of stroke and may have a significant effect on ED presentations for stroke and TIA. Public awareness of stroke warning signs declines during advertising black-outs, so short campaigns are less effective.

  6. People-centred landslide early warning systems in the context of risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haß, S.; Asch, K.; Fernandez-Steeger, T.; Arnhardt, C.

    2009-04-01

    In the current hazard research people-centred warning becomes more and more important, because different types of organizations and groups have to be involved in the warning process. This fact has to be taken into account when developing early warning systems. The effectiveness of early warning depends not only on technical capabilities but also on the preparedness of decision makers and their immediate response on how to act in case of emergency. Hence early warning systems have to be regarded in the context of an integrated and holistic risk management. Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures include people-centred, timely and understandable warning. Further responsible authorities have to be identified in advance and standards for risk communication have to be established. Up to now, hazard and risk assessment for geohazards focuses on the development of inventory, susceptibility, hazard and risk maps. But often, especially in Europe, there are no institutional structures for managing geohazards and in addition there is a lack of an authority that is legally obliged to alarm on landslides at national or regional level. One of the main characteristics within the warning process for natural hazards e.g. in Germany is the split of responsibility between scientific authorities (wissenschaftliche Fachbehörde) and enforcement authorities (Vollzugsbehörde). The scientific authority provides the experts who define the methods and measures for monitoring and evaluate the hazard level. The main focus is the acquisition and evaluation of data and subsequently the distribution of information. The enforcement authority issues official warnings about dangerous natural phenomena. Hence the information chain in the context of early warning ranges over two different institutions, the forecast service and the warning service. But there doesn't exist a framework for warning processes in terms of landslides as yet. The concept for managing natural disasters is often reduced to

  7. Public education strategies to increase awareness of stroke warning signs and the need to call 911.

    PubMed

    Fogle, Crystelle C; Oser, Carrie S; Troutman, T Polly; McNamara, Michael; Williamson, Anthony P; Keller, Matt; McNamara, Steve; Helgerson, Steven D; Gohdes, Dorothy; Harwell, Todd S

    2008-01-01

    Rapid identification and treatment of ischemic stroke can lead to improved patient outcomes. We implemented a 20-week public education campaign to increase community awareness of warning signs for stroke and the need to call 911. Telephone surveys were conducted in adults aged 45 years and older before and after the intervention to evaluate its impact. There was a significant increase in awareness of two or more warning signs for stroke from baseline to follow-up (67% to 83%). Awareness increased significantly among both men and women and younger and older respondents. There was no significant change in the proportion of respondents indicating that they would call 911 if they witnessed someone having a stroke (74% to 76%). However, after the campaign, an increased proportion of respondents indicated that they would call 911 if they experienced sudden speech problems (51% to 58%), numbness or loss of sensation (41% to 51%), or paralysis (46% to 59%) that would not go away. Our findings suggest that a high-intensity public education campaign can increase community awareness of the warning signs for stroke and the need to call 911.

  8. Early warning signal for interior crises in excitable systems.

    PubMed

    Karnatak, Rajat; Kantz, Holger; Bialonski, Stephan

    2017-10-01

    The ability to reliably predict critical transitions in dynamical systems is a long-standing goal of diverse scientific communities. Previous work focused on early warning signals related to local bifurcations (critical slowing down) and nonbifurcation-type transitions. We extend this toolbox and report on a characteristic scaling behavior (critical attractor growth) which is indicative of an impending global bifurcation, an interior crisis in excitable systems. We demonstrate our early warning signal in a conceptual climate model as well as in a model of coupled neurons known to exhibit extreme events. We observed critical attractor growth prior to interior crises of chaotic as well as strange-nonchaotic attractors. These observations promise to extend the classes of transitions that can be predicted via early warning signals.

  9. Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns

    PubMed Central

    Brock, William A.; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Livina, Valerie N.; Seekell, David A.; Scheffer, Marten; van Nes, Egbert H.; Dakos, Vasilis

    2014-01-01

    A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data. PMID:24658137

  10. Early Warnings for Local Labor Markets

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Matland, Marc A.

    1976-01-01

    This articles summarizes the National Planning Association's (NPA) experience in its initial efforts to develop an early warning system to anticipate job openings generated in local communities by large Federal procurement contracts. (WL)

  11. [Early warning on measles through the neural networks].

    PubMed

    Yu, Bin; Ding, Chun; Wei, Shan-bo; Chen, Bang-hua; Liu, Pu-lin; Luo, Tong-yong; Wang, Jia-gang; Pan, Zhi-wei; Lu, Jun-an

    2011-01-01

    To discuss the effects on early warning of measles, using the neural networks. Based on the available data through monthly and weekly reports on measles from January 1986 to August 2006 in Wuhan city. The modal was developed using the neural networks to predict and analyze the prevalence and incidence of measles. When the dynamic time series modal was established with back propagation (BP) networks consisting of two layers, if p was assigned as 9, the convergence speed was acceptable and the correlation coefficient was equal to 0.85. It was more acceptable for monthly forecasting the specific value, but better for weekly forecasting the classification under probabilistic neural networks (PNN). When data was big enough to serve the purpose, it seemed more feasible for early warning using the two-layer BP networks. However, when data was not enough, then PNN could be used for the purpose of prediction. This method seemed feasible to be used in the system for early warning.

  12. Development of Water Resources Drought Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, B. P. T.; Chen, C. H.

    2017-12-01

    Signs of impending drought are often vague and result from hydrologic uncertainty. Because of this, determining the appropriate time to enforce water supply restrictions is difficult. This study proposes a drought early warning index (DEWI) that can help water resource managers to anticipate droughts so that preparations can be made to mitigate the impact of water shortages. This study employs the expected-deficit-rate of normal water supply conditions as the drought early warning index. An annual-use-reservoir-based water supply system in southern Taiwan was selected as the case study. The water supply simulation was based on reservoir storage at the evaluation time and the reservoir inflow series to cope with the actual water supply process until the end of the hydrologic year. A variety of deficits could be realized during different hydrologic years of records and assumptions of initial reservoir storage. These deficits are illustrated using the Average Shortage Rate (ASR) and the value of the ASR, namely the DEWI. The ASR is divided into 5 levels according to 5 deficit-tolerance combinations of each kind of annual demand. A linear regression model and a Neuro-Fuzzy Computing Technique model were employed to estimate the DEWI using selected factors deduced from supply-demand traits and available information, including: rainfall, reservoir inflow and storage data. The chosen methods mentioned above are used to explain a significant index is useful for both model development and decision making. Tests in the Tsengwen-Wushantou reservoir system showed this DEWI to perform very well in adopting the proper mitigation policy at the end of the wet season.

  13. Improvement of the performance of animal crossing warning signs.

    PubMed

    Khalilikhah, Majid; Heaslip, Kevin

    2017-09-01

    Animal-vehicle collisions (AVCs) can result in serious injury and death to drivers, animals' death, and significant economic costs. However, the cost effectiveness of the majority of AVC mitigation measures is a significant issue. A mobile-based data collection effort was deployed to measure signs under the Utah Department of Transportation's (UDOT) jurisdiction. The crash data were obtained from the UDOT risk management database. ArcGIS was employed to link these two data sets and extract animal-related crashes and signs. An algorithm was developed to process the data and identify AVCs that occurred within sign recognition distance. Kernel density estimation (KDE) technique was applied to identify potential crash hotspots. Only 2% of AVCs occurred within the recognition distance of animal crossing signs. Almost 58% of animal-related crashes took place on the Interstate and U.S. highways, wherein only 30% of animal crossing signs were installed. State routes with a higher average number of signs experienced a lower number of AVCs per mile. The differences between AVCs that occurred within versus outside of sign recognition distance were not statistically significant regarding crash severity, time of crash, weather condition, driver age, vehicle speed, and type of animal. It is more likely that drivers become accustomed to deer crossing signs than cow signs. Based on the historical crash data and landscape structure, with attention given to the low cost safety improvement methods, a combination of different types of AVC mitigation measures can be developed to reduce the number of animal-related crashes. After an in-depth analysis of AVC data, warning traffic signs, coupled with other low cost mitigation countermeasures can be successfully placed in areas with higher priority or in critical areas. Practical applications: The findings of this study assist transportation agencies in developing more efficient mitigation measures against AVCs. Copyright © 2017 National

  14. Earthquake Early Warning: User Education and Designing Effective Messages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burkett, E. R.; Sellnow, D. D.; Jones, L.; Sellnow, T. L.

    2014-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and partners are transitioning from test-user trials of a demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) to deciding and preparing how to implement the release of earthquake early warning information, alert messages, and products to the public and other stakeholders. An earthquake early warning system uses seismic station networks to rapidly gather information about an occurring earthquake and send notifications to user devices ahead of the arrival of potentially damaging ground shaking at their locations. Earthquake early warning alerts can thereby allow time for actions to protect lives and property before arrival of damaging shaking, if users are properly educated on how to use and react to such notifications. A collaboration team of risk communications researchers and earth scientists is researching the effectiveness of a chosen subset of potential earthquake early warning interface designs and messages, which could be displayed on a device such as a smartphone. Preliminary results indicate, for instance, that users prefer alerts that include 1) a map to relate their location to the earthquake and 2) instructions for what to do in response to the expected level of shaking. A number of important factors must be considered to design a message that will promote appropriate self-protective behavior. While users prefer to see a map, how much information can be processed in limited time? Are graphical representations of wavefronts helpful or confusing? The most important factor to promote a helpful response is the predicted earthquake intensity, or how strong the expected shaking will be at the user's location. Unlike Japanese users of early warning, few Californians are familiar with the earthquake intensity scale, so we are exploring how differentiating instructions between intensity levels (e.g., "Be aware" for lower shaking levels and "Drop, cover, hold on" at high levels) can be paired with self-directed supplemental

  15. Evaluation of the effects of implementing an electronic early warning score system: protocol for a stepped wedge study.

    PubMed

    Bonnici, Timothy; Gerry, Stephen; Wong, David; Knight, Julia; Watkinson, Peter

    2016-02-09

    An Early Warning Score is a clinical risk score based upon vital signs intended to aid recognition of patients in need of urgent medical attention. The use of an escalation of care policy based upon an Early Warning Score is mandated as the standard of practice in British hospitals. Electronic systems for recording vital sign observations and Early Warning Score calculation offer theoretical benefits over paper-based systems. However, the evidence for their clinical benefit is limited. Previous studies have shown inconsistent results. The majority have employed a "before and after" study design, which may be strongly confounded by simultaneously occurring events. This study aims to examine how the implementation of an electronic early warning score system, System for Notification and Documentation (SEND), affects the recognition of clinical deterioration occurring in hospitalised adult patients. This study is a non-randomised stepped wedge evaluation carried out across the four hospitals of the Oxford University Hospitals NHS Trust, comparing charting on paper and charting using SEND. We assume that more frequent monitoring of acutely ill patients is associated with better recognition of patient deterioration. The primary outcome measure is the time between a patient's first observations set with an Early Warning Score above the alerting threshold and their subsequent set of observations. Secondary outcome measures are in-hospital mortality, cardiac arrest and Intensive Care admission rates, hospital length of stay and system usability measured using the System Usability Scale. We will also measure Intensive Care length of stay, Intensive Care mortality, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II acute physiology score on admission, to examine whether the introduction of SEND has any effect on Intensive Care-related outcomes. The development of this protocol has been informed by guidance from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ

  16. A fundamental conflict of care: Nurses' accounts of balancing patients' sleep with taking vital sign observations at night.

    PubMed

    Hope, Joanna; Recio-Saucedo, Alejandra; Fogg, Carole; Griffiths, Peter; Smith, Gary B; Westwood, Greta; Schmidt, Paul E

    2017-12-21

    To explore why adherence to vital sign observations scheduled by an early warning score protocol reduces at night. Regular vital sign observations can reduce avoidable deterioration in hospital. early warning score protocols set the frequency of these observations by the severity of a patient's condition. Vital sign observations are taken less frequently at night, even with an early warning score in place, but no literature has explored why. A qualitative interpretative design informed this study. Seventeen semi-structured interviews with nursing staff working on wards with varying levels of adherence to scheduled vital sign observations. A thematic analysis approach was used. At night, nursing teams found it difficult to balance the competing care goals of supporting sleep with taking vital sign observations. The night-time frequency of these observations was determined by clinical judgement, ward-level expectations of observation timing and the risk of disturbing other patients. Patients with COPD or dementia could be under-monitored, while patients nearing the end of life could be over-monitored. In this study, we found an early warning score algorithm focused on deterioration prevention did not account for long-term management or palliative care trajectories. Nurses were therefore less inclined to wake such patients to take vital sign observations at night. However, the perception of widespread exceptions and lack of evidence regarding optimum frequency risks delegitimising the early warning score approach. This may pose a risk to patient safety, particularly patients with dementia or chronic conditions. Nurses should document exceptions and discuss these with the wider team. Hospitals should monitor why vital sign observations are missed at night, identify which groups are under-monitored and provide guidance on prioritising competing expectations. early warning score protocols should take account of different care trajectories. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of

  17. Early warning signals of regime shifts in coupled human–environment systems

    PubMed Central

    Bauch, Chris T.; Sigdel, Ram; Pharaon, Joe; Anand, Madhur

    2016-01-01

    In complex systems, a critical transition is a shift in a system’s dynamical regime from its current state to a strongly contrasting state as external conditions move beyond a tipping point. These transitions are often preceded by characteristic early warning signals such as increased system variability. However, early warning signals in complex, coupled human–environment systems (HESs) remain little studied. Here, we compare critical transitions and their early warning signals in a coupled HES model to an equivalent environment model uncoupled from the human system. We parameterize the HES model, using social and ecological data from old-growth forests in Oregon. We find that the coupled HES exhibits a richer variety of dynamics and regime shifts than the uncoupled environment system. Moreover, the early warning signals in the coupled HES can be ambiguous, heralding either an era of ecosystem conservationism or collapse of both forest ecosystems and conservationism. The presence of human feedback in the coupled HES can also mitigate the early warning signal, making it more difficult to detect the oncoming regime shift. We furthermore show how the coupled HES can be “doomed to criticality”: Strategic human interactions cause the system to remain perpetually in the vicinity of a collapse threshold, as humans become complacent when the resource seems protected but respond rapidly when it is under immediate threat. We conclude that the opportunities, benefits, and challenges of modeling regime shifts and early warning signals in coupled HESs merit further research. PMID:27815533

  18. On the importance of risk knowledge for an end-to-end tsunami early warning system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Post, Joachim; Strunz, Günter; Riedlinger, Torsten; Mück, Matthias; Wegscheider, Stephanie; Zosseder, Kai; Steinmetz, Tilmann; Gebert, Niklas; Anwar, Herryal

    2010-05-01

    Warning systems commonly use information provided by networks of sensors able to monitor and detect impending disasters, aggregate and condense these information to provide reliable information to a decision maker whether to warn or not, disseminates the warning message and provide this information to people at risk. Ultimate aim is to enable those in danger to make decisions (e.g. initiate protective actions for buildings) and to take action to safe their lives. This involves very complex issues when considering all four elements of early warning systems (UNISDR-PPEW), namely (1) risk knowledge, (2) monitoring and warning service, (3) dissemination and communication, (4) response capability with the ultimate aim to gain as much time as possible to empower individuals and communities to act in an appropriate manner to reduce injury, loss of life, damage to property and the environment and loss of livelihoods. Commonly most warning systems feature strengths and main attention on the technical/structural dimension (monitoring & warning service, dissemination tools) with weaknesses and less attention on social/cultural dimension (e.g. human response capabilities, defined warning chain to and knowing what to do by the people). Also, the use of risk knowledge in early warning most often is treated in a theoretical manner (knowing that it is somehow important), yet less in an operational, practical sense. Risk assessments and risk maps help to motivate people, prioritise early warning system needs and guide preparations for response and disaster prevention activities. Beyond this risk knowledge can be seen as a tie between national level early warning and community level reaction schemes. This presentation focuses on results, key findings and lessons-learnt related to tsunami risk assessment in the context of early warning within the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning) project. Here a novel methodology reflecting risk information needs in the early warning

  19. [Ecological security early-warning in Zhoushan Islands based on variable weight model].

    PubMed

    Zhou, Bin; Zhong, Lin-sheng; Chen, Tian; Zhou, Rui

    2015-06-01

    Ecological security early warning, as an important content of ecological security research, is of indicating significance in maintaining regional ecological security. Based on driving force, pressure, state, impact and response (D-P-S-I-R) framework model, this paper took Zhoushan Islands in Zhejiang Province as an example to construct the ecological security early warning index system, test degrees of ecological security early warning of Zhoushan Islands from 2000 to 2012 by using the method of variable weight model, and forecast ecological security state of 2013-2018 by Markov prediction method. The results showed that the variable weight model could meet the study needs of ecological security early warning of Zhoushan Islands. There was a fluctuant rising ecological security early warning index from 0.286 to 0.484 in Zhoushan Islands between year 2000 and 2012, in which the security grade turned from "serious alert" into " medium alert" and the indicator light turned from "orange" to "yellow". The degree of ecological security warning was "medium alert" with the light of "yellow" for Zhoushan Islands from 2013 to 2018. These findings could provide a reference for ecological security maintenance of Zhoushan Islands.

  20. Monitoring and Early Warning of the 2012 Preonzo Catastrophic Rockslope Failure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loew, Simon; Gschwind, Sophie; Keller-Signer, Alexandra; Valenti, Giorgio

    2015-04-01

    In this contribution we describe the accelerated creep stage and early warning system of a 210'000 m3 rock slope failure that occurred in May 2012 above the village of Preonzo (Swiss Alps). The very rapid failure occurred from a larger and retrogressive instability in high-grade metamorphic ortho-gneisses and amphibolites with a total volume of about 350'000 m3 located at an alpine meadow called Alpe di Roscioro. This instability showed clearly visible signs of movements since 1989 and accelerated creep with significant hydro-mechanical forcing since about 1999. Because the instability at Preonzo threatened a large industrial facility and important transport routes a cost-effective early warning system was installed in 2010. The alarm thresholds for pre-alarm, general public alarm and evacuation were derived from 10 years of continuous displacement monitoring with crack extensometers and an automated total station. These thresholds were successfully applied to evacuate the industrial facility and close important roads a few days before the catastrophic slope failure of May 15th, 2012. The rock slope failure occurred in two events, exposing a planar rupture plane dipping 42° and generating deposits in the mid-slope portion with a travel angle of 38°. Two hours after the second rockslide, the fresh colluvial deposits became reactivated in a devastating de-bris avalanche reaching the foot of the slope.

  1. SPIRALE: early warning optical space demonstrator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galindo, D.; Carucci, A.

    2004-11-01

    Thanks to its global coverage, its peacetime capabilities and its availability, ballistic missiles Early Warning (EW) space systems are identified as a key node of a global missile defence system. Since the Gulf war in 1991, several feasibility studies of such an Early Warning system have been conducted in France. The main conclusions are first that the most appropriate concept is to use infra-red (IR) sensors on geo- stationary orbit satellites and second that the required satellite performances are achievable and accessible to European industries, even if technological developments are necessary. Besides that, it was recommended to prepare the development of the EW operational system, by demonstrating its achievable performances on the basis of collected background images and available target IR signatures. This is the objective of the "EW optical space demonstrator", also named SPIRALE (this a French acronym which stands for "Preparatory IR Program for EW"). A contract has been awarded early 2004, by DGA/SPOTI (French Armament Procurement Agency), to EADS Astrium France, with a significant participation of Alcatel Space, to perform this demonstration.

  2. Effect of information education and communication (IEC) programme on knowledge of pregnant mothers regarding prevention and management of warning signs during pregnancy.

    PubMed

    Takoo, Sarla; Chhugani, Manju; Sharma, Veena

    2013-01-01

    The present study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of an Information, Education and Communication (IEC) programme on knowledge of pregnant mothers regarding prevention and management of warning signs during pregnancy in a selected health care setting at New Delhi. An evaluative research approach with one group pre-test and post-test design was adopted for the present study. A structured interview schedule was prepared. Purposive non-probability sampling technique was employed to interview 30 pregnant mothers who attended antenatal clinic. Data gathered was analysed and interpreted using both descriptive and inferential statistics. The study revealed that there was maximum knowledge deficit regarding warning signs of pregnancy. IEC programme was effective in enhancing the knowledge of pregnant mothers on prevention and management of warning signs during pregnancy.

  3. Landslide susceptibility and early warning model for shallow landslide in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Chun-Ming; Wei, Lun-Wei; Chi, Chun-Chi; Chang, Kan-Tsun; Lee, Chyi-Tyi

    2017-04-01

    This study aims to development a regional susceptibility model and warning threshold as well as the establishment of early warning system in order to prevent and reduce the losses caused by rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Taiwan. For the purpose of practical application, Taiwan is divided into nearly 185,000 slope units. The susceptibility and warning threshold of each slope unit were analyzed as basic information for disaster prevention. The geological characteristics, mechanism and the occurrence time of landslides were recorded for more than 900 cases through field investigation and interview of residents in order to discuss the relationship between landslides and rainfall. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the landslide susceptibility and an I3-R24 rainfall threshold model was proposed for the early warning of landslides. The validations of recent landslide cases show that the model was suitable for the warning of regional shallow landslide and most of the cases can be warned 3 to 6 hours in advanced. We also propose a slope unit area weighted method to establish local rainfall threshold on landslide for vulnerable villages in order to improve the practical application. Validations of the local rainfall threshold also show a good agreement to the occurrence time reported by newspapers. Finally, a web based "Rainfall-induced Landslide Early Warning System" is built and connected to real-time radar rainfall data so that landslide real-time warning can be achieved. Keywords: landslide, susceptibility analysis, rainfall threshold

  4. Early Warning Systems: Re-Engaging Chronic Truants

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chorneau, Tom

    2012-01-01

    School attendance can be an early indicator that something is going wrong with a student. Gathering, analyzing, and acting on attendance information is a first step toward school improvement. Meanwhile, the majority of the states are moving to build and enhance what are called "early warning systems," intended to flag at-risk students during their…

  5. Vantage point - Early warning flaws.

    PubMed

    Swinden, Donna

    2014-08-28

    USING AN EARLY warning score (EWS) system should improve the detection of acutely deteriorating patients. Under such a system, a score is allocated to each of six physiological measurements including respiratory rate and oxygen saturations, which are aggregated to produce an overall score. An aggregated score of seven or higher prompts nursing staff to refer a patient for emergency assessment.

  6. Development of a consortium for water security and safety: Planning for an early warning system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clark, R.M.; Adam, N.R.; Atluri, V.; Halem, M.; Vowinkel, E.F.; ,

    2004-01-01

    The events of September 11, 2001 have raised concerns over the safety and security of the Nation's critical infrastructure including water and waste water systems. In June 2002, the U.S. EPA's Region II Office (New York City), in response to concerns over water security, in collaboration with Rutgers University agreed to establish a Regional Drinking Water Security and Safety Consortium (RDWSSC). Members of the consortium include: Rutgers University's Center for Information Management, Integration and Connectivity (CIMIC), American Water (AW), the Passaic Valley Water Commission (PVWC), the North Jersey District Water Supply Commission (NJDWSC), the N.J. Department of Environmental Protection, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agencies, Region II Office. In December of 2002 the consortium members signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to pursue activities to enhance regional water security. Development of an early warning system for source and distributed water was identified as being of primary importance by the consortium. In this context, an early warning system (EWS) is an integrated system of monitoring stations located at strategic points in a water utilities source waters or in its distribution system, designed to warn against contaminants that might threaten the health and welfare of drinking water consumers. This paper will discuss the consortium's progress in achieving these important objectives.

  7. A Sustainable Early Warning System for Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, T.; Tung, C.; Chung, N.

    2007-12-01

    In this era of rapid social and technological change leading to interesting life complexity and environmental displacement, both positive and negative effects among ecosystems call for a balance in which there are impacts by climate changes. Early warning systems for climate change impacts are necessary in order to allow society as a whole to properly and usefully assimilate the masses of new information and knowledge. Therefore, our research addresses to build up a sustainable early warning mechanism. The main goal is to mitigate the cumulative impacts on the environment of climate change and enhance adaptive capacities. An effective early warning system has been proven for protection. However, there is a problem that estimate future climate changes would be faced with high uncertainty. In general, take estimations for climate change impacts would use the data from General Circulation Models and take the analysis as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change declared. We follow the course of the method for analyzing climate change impacts and attempt to accomplish the sustainable early warning system for water quality management. Climate changes impact not only on individual situation but on short-term variation and long-term gradually changes. This kind characteristic should adopt the suitable warning system for long-term formulation and short- term operation. To continue the on-going research of the long-term early warning system for climate change impacts on water quality management, the short-term early warning system is established by using local observation data for reappraising the warning issue. The combination of long-term and short-term system can provide more circumstantial details. In Taiwan, a number of studies have revealed that climate change impacts on water quality, especially in arid period, the concentration of biological oxygen demand may turn into worse. Rapid population growth would also inflict injury on its assimilative capacity to

  8. Constructing early warning information release system in towns enterprise clean production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuwen, Huixin; He, Xueqiu; Qian, Xinming; Yuan, Mengqi

    2017-08-01

    China’s industry boom has not only brought unprecedented prosperity, but also caused the gradual depletion of various resources and the worsening of the natural environment. Experts admit that China is facing serious environmental problem, but they believe that they can seek a new path to overcome it through joint efforts. Early warning information release and clean production are the important concepts in addressing the imminent crisis. Early warning information release system can monitor and forecast the risk that affects the clean production. The author drawn the experiences and lessons from developed countries, combined with China’s reality, put forward countermeasures and suggestions about constructing early warning information release system in process of Chinese town-scaled enterprises clean production.

  9. Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models: the EDuMaP method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvello, M.; Piciullo, L.

    2016-01-01

    A schematic of the components of regional early warning systems for rainfall-induced landslides is herein proposed, based on a clear distinction between warning models and warning systems. According to this framework an early warning system comprises a warning model as well as a monitoring and warning strategy, a communication strategy and an emergency plan. The paper proposes the evaluation of regional landslide warning models by means of an original approach, called the "event, duration matrix, performance" (EDuMaP) method, comprising three successive steps: identification and analysis of the events, i.e., landslide events and warning events derived from available landslides and warnings databases; definition and computation of a duration matrix, whose elements report the time associated with the occurrence of landslide events in relation to the occurrence of warning events, in their respective classes; evaluation of the early warning model performance by means of performance criteria and indicators applied to the duration matrix. During the first step the analyst identifies and classifies the landslide and warning events, according to their spatial and temporal characteristics, by means of a number of model parameters. In the second step, the analyst computes a time-based duration matrix with a number of rows and columns equal to the number of classes defined for the warning and landslide events, respectively. In the third step, the analyst computes a series of model performance indicators derived from a set of performance criteria, which need to be defined by considering, once again, the features of the warning model. The applicability, potentialities and limitations of the EDuMaP method are tested and discussed using real landslides and warning data from the municipal early warning system operating in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil).

  10. Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models: the EDuMaP method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvello, M.; Piciullo, L.

    2015-10-01

    The paper proposes the evaluation of the technical performance of a regional landslide early warning system by means of an original approach, called EDuMaP method, comprising three successive steps: identification and analysis of the Events (E), i.e. landslide events and warning events derived from available landslides and warnings databases; definition and computation of a Duration Matrix (DuMa), whose elements report the time associated with the occurrence of landslide events in relation to the occurrence of warning events, in their respective classes; evaluation of the early warning model Performance (P) by means of performance criteria and indicators applied to the duration matrix. During the first step, the analyst takes into account the features of the warning model by means of ten input parameters, which are used to identify and classify landslide and warning events according to their spatial and temporal characteristics. In the second step, the analyst computes a time-based duration matrix having a number of rows and columns equal to the number of classes defined for the warning and landslide events, respectively. In the third step, the analyst computes a series of model performance indicators derived from a set of performance criteria, which need to be defined by considering, once again, the features of the warning model. The proposed method is based on a framework clearly distinguishing between local and regional landslide early warning systems as well as among correlation laws, warning models and warning systems. The applicability, potentialities and limitations of the EDuMaP method are tested and discussed using real landslides and warnings data from the municipal early warning system operating in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil).

  11. Recognizing Warning Signs of K-12 Christian School Distress That Lead to School Closure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fellers, Ron

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this research was to identify statistically significant warning signs of K12 Christian school distress that can lead to school closure in the areas of leadership, homogeneity of vision and culture, finances, and competition, as described by Fitzpatrick (2002) and Nichols (2006). Twenty-four strong, declining, and closed K-12…

  12. Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Response System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erdik, M. O.; Fahjan, Y.; Ozel, O.; Alcik, H.; Aydin, M.; Gul, M.

    2003-12-01

    As part of the preparations for the future earthquake in Istanbul a Rapid Response and Early Warning system in the metropolitan area is in operation. For the Early Warning system ten strong motion stations were installed as close as possible to the fault zone. Continuous on-line data from these stations via digital radio modem provide early warning for potentially disastrous earthquakes. Considering the complexity of fault rupture and the short fault distances involved, a simple and robust Early Warning algorithm, based on the exceedance of specified threshold time domain amplitude levels is implemented. The band-pass filtered accelerations and the cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) are compared with specified threshold levels. When any acceleration or CAV (on any channel) in a given station exceeds specific threshold values it is considered a vote. Whenever we have 2 station votes within selectable time interval, after the first vote, the first alarm is declared. In order to specify the appropriate threshold levels a data set of near field strong ground motions records form Turkey and the world has been analyzed. Correlations among these thresholds in terms of the epicenter distance the magnitude of the earthquake have been studied. The encrypted early warning signals will be communicated to the respective end users by UHF systems through a "service provider" company. The users of the early warning signal will be power and gas companies, nuclear research facilities, critical chemical factories, subway system and several high-rise buildings. Depending on the location of the earthquake (initiation of fault rupture) and the recipient facility the alarm time can be as high as about 8s. For the rapid response system one hundred 18 bit-resolution strong motion accelerometers were placed in quasi-free field locations (basement of small buildings) in the populated areas of the city, within an area of approximately 50x30km, to constitute a network that will enable early

  13. 49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 6 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C Appendix C to Part 512 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief Counsel...

  14. 49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 6 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C Appendix C to Part 512 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief Counsel...

  15. 49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C Appendix C to Part 512 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief Counsel...

  16. 49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 6 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C Appendix C to Part 512 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief Counsel...

  17. 49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 6 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C Appendix C to Part 512 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief Counsel...

  18. Aggregate National Early Warning Score (NEWS) values are more important than high scores for a single vital signs parameter for discriminating the risk of adverse outcomes.

    PubMed

    Jarvis, Stuart; Kovacs, Caroline; Briggs, Jim; Meredith, Paul; Schmidt, Paul E; Featherstone, Peter I; Prytherch, David R; Smith, Gary B

    2015-02-01

    The Royal College of Physicians (RCPL) National Early Warning Score (NEWS) escalates care to a doctor at NEWS values of ≥5 and when the score for any single vital sign is 3. We calculated the 24-h risk of serious clinical outcomes for vital signs observation sets with NEWS values of 3, 4 and 5, separately determining risks when the score did/did not include a single score of 3. We compared workloads generated by the RCPL's escalation protocol and for aggregate NEWS value alone. Aggregate NEWS values of 3 or 4 (n=142,282) formed 15.1% of all vital signs sets measured; those containing a single vital sign scoring 3 (n=36,207) constituted 3.8% of all sets. Aggregate NEWS values of either 3 or 4 with a component score of 3 have significantly lower risks (OR: 0.26 and 0.53) than an aggregate value of 5 (OR: 1.0). Escalating care to a doctor when any single component of NEWS scores 3 compared to when aggregate NEWS values ≥5, would have increased doctors' workload by 40% with only a small increase in detected adverse outcomes from 2.99 to 3.08 per day (a 3% improvement in detection). The recommended NEWS escalation protocol produces additional work for the bedside nurse and responding doctor, disproportionate to a modest benefit in increased detection of adverse outcomes. It may have significant ramifications for efficient staff resource allocation, distort patient safety focus and risk alarm fatigue. Our findings suggest that the RCPL escalation guidance warrants review. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. A proposed Primary Health Early Warning Score (PHEWS) with emphasis on early detection of sepsis in the elderly.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Ian

    2016-03-01

    There are several secondary care early warning scores which alert for severe illness including sepsis. None are specifically adjusted for primary care. A Primary Health Early Warning Score (PHEWS) is proposed which incorporates practical parameters from both secondary and primary care.

  20. Forests and Phenology: Designing the Early Warning System to Understand Forest Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pierce, T.; Phillips, M. B.; Hargrove, W. W.; Dobson, G.; Hicks, J.; Hutchins, M.; Lichtenstein, K.

    2010-12-01

    Vegetative phenology is the study of plant development and changes with the seasons, such as the greening-up and browning-down of forests, and how these events are influenced by variations in climate. A National Phenology Data Set, based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite images covering 2002 through 2009, is now available from work by NASA, the US Forest Service, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This new data set provides an easily interpretable product useful for detecting changes to the landscape due to long-term factors such as climate change, as well as finding areas affected by short-term forest threats such as insects or disease. The Early Warning System (EWS) is a toolset being developed by the US Forest Service and the University of North Carolina-Asheville to support distribution and use of the National Phenology Data Set. The Early Warning System will help research scientists, US Forest Service personnel, forest and natural resources managers, decision makers, and the public in the use of phenology data to better understand unexpected change within our nation’s forests. These changes could have multiple natural sources such as insects, disease, or storm damage, or may be due to human-induced events, like thinning, harvest, forest conversion to agriculture, or residential and commercial use. The primary goal of the Early Warning System is to provide a seamless integration between monitoring, detection, early warning and prediction of these forest disturbances as observed through phenological data. The system consists of PC and web-based components that are structured to support four user stages of increasing knowledge and data sophistication. Building Literacy: This stage of the Early Warning System educates potential users about the system, why the system should be used, and the fundamentals about the data the system uses. The channels for this education include a website, interactive tutorials, pamphlets, and other technology

  1. Early Warning Look Ahead Metrics: The Percent Milestone Backlog Metric

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shinn, Stephen A.; Anderson, Timothy P.

    2017-01-01

    All complex development projects experience delays and corresponding backlogs of their project control milestones during their acquisition lifecycles. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Projects Directorate (FPD) teamed with The Aerospace Corporation (Aerospace) to develop a collection of Early Warning Look Ahead metrics that would provide GSFC leadership with some independent indication of the programmatic health of GSFC flight projects. As part of the collection of Early Warning Look Ahead metrics, the Percent Milestone Backlog metric is particularly revealing, and has utility as a stand-alone execution performance monitoring tool. This paper describes the purpose, development methodology, and utility of the Percent Milestone Backlog metric. The other four Early Warning Look Ahead metrics are also briefly discussed. Finally, an example of the use of the Percent Milestone Backlog metric in providing actionable insight is described, along with examples of its potential use in other commodities.

  2. Early warning signals of desertification transitions in semiarid ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Corrado, Raffaele; Cherubini, Anna Maria; Pennetta, Cecilia

    2014-12-01

    The identification of early warning signals for regime shifts in ecosystems is of crucial importance given their impact in terms of economic and social effects. We present here the results of a theoretical study on the desertification transition in semiarid ecosystems under external stress. We performed numerical simulations based on a stochastic cellular automaton model, and we studied the dynamics of the vegetation clusters in terms of percolation theory, assumed as an effective tool for analyzing the geometrical properties of the clusters. Focusing on the role played by the strength of external stresses, measured by the mortality rate m, we followed the progressive degradation of the ecosystem for increasing m, identifying different stages: first, the fragmentation transition occurring at relatively low values of m, then the desertification transition at higher mortality rates, and finally the full desertification transition corresponding to the extinction of the vegetation and the almost complete degradation of the soil, attained at the maximum value of m. For each transition we calculated the spanning probabilities as functions of m and the percolation thresholds according to different spanning criteria. The identification of the different thresholds is proposed as an useful tool for monitoring the increasing degradation of real-world finite-size systems. Moreover, we studied the time fluctuations of the sizes of the biggest clusters of vegetated and nonvegetated cells over the entire range of mortality values. The change of sign in the skewness of the size distributions, occurring at the fragmentation threshold for the biggest vegetation cluster and at the desertification threshold for the nonvegetated cluster, offers new early warning signals for desertification. Other new and robust indicators are given by the maxima of the root-mean-square deviation of the distributions, which are attained respectively inside the fragmentation interval, for the vegetated

  3. Early warning signals of desertification transitions in semiarid ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corrado, Raffaele; Cherubini, Anna Maria; Pennetta, Cecilia

    2014-12-01

    The identification of early warning signals for regime shifts in ecosystems is of crucial importance given their impact in terms of economic and social effects. We present here the results of a theoretical study on the desertification transition in semiarid ecosystems under external stress. We performed numerical simulations based on a stochastic cellular automaton model, and we studied the dynamics of the vegetation clusters in terms of percolation theory, assumed as an effective tool for analyzing the geometrical properties of the clusters. Focusing on the role played by the strength of external stresses, measured by the mortality rate m , we followed the progressive degradation of the ecosystem for increasing m , identifying different stages: first, the fragmentation transition occurring at relatively low values of m , then the desertification transition at higher mortality rates, and finally the full desertification transition corresponding to the extinction of the vegetation and the almost complete degradation of the soil, attained at the maximum value of m . For each transition we calculated the spanning probabilities as functions of m and the percolation thresholds according to different spanning criteria. The identification of the different thresholds is proposed as an useful tool for monitoring the increasing degradation of real-world finite-size systems. Moreover, we studied the time fluctuations of the sizes of the biggest clusters of vegetated and nonvegetated cells over the entire range of mortality values. The change of sign in the skewness of the size distributions, occurring at the fragmentation threshold for the biggest vegetation cluster and at the desertification threshold for the nonvegetated cluster, offers new early warning signals for desertification. Other new and robust indicators are given by the maxima of the root-mean-square deviation of the distributions, which are attained respectively inside the fragmentation interval, for the

  4. Validation of the Intensive Care Unit Early Warning Dashboard: Quality Improvement Utilizing a Retrospective Case-Control Evaluation.

    PubMed

    Kavanaugh, Michael J; So, Joanne D; Park, Peter J; Davis, Konrad L

    2017-02-01

    Risk stratification with the Modified Early Warning System (MEWS) or electronic cardiac arrest trigger (eCART) has been utilized with ward patients to preemptively identify high-risk patients who might benefit from enhanced monitoring, including early intensive care unit (ICU) transfer. In-hospital mortality from cardiac arrest is ∼80%, making preventative interventions an important focus area. ICUs have lower patient to nurse ratios than wards, resulting in less emphasis on the development of ICU early warning systems. Our institution developed an early warning dashboard (EWD) identifying patients who may benefit from earlier interventions. Using the adverse outcomes of cardiac arrest, ICU mortality, and ICU readmissions, a retrospective case-control study was performed using three demographic items (age, diabetes, and morbid obesity) and 24 EWD measured items, including vital signs, laboratory values, ventilator information, and other clinical information, to validate the EWD. Ten statistically significant areas were identified for cardiac arrest and 13 for ICU death. Identified items included heart rate, dialysis, leukocytosis, and lactate. The ICU readmission outcome was compared to controls from both ICU patients and ward patients, and statistical significance was identified for respiratory rate >30. With several statistically significant data elements, the EWD parameters have been incorporated into advanced clinical decision algorithms to identify at-risk ICU patients. Earlier identification and treatment of organ failure in the ICU improve outcomes and the EWD can serve as a safety measure for both at-risk in-house patients and also extend critical care expertise through telemedicine to smaller hospitals.

  5. Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick H. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-07-01

    Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on numerical weather prediction, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the type of input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that false alarms also contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

  6. Refuting the ticagrelor-aspirin black box warning: and proposing a ticagrelor early-PCI black box warning.

    PubMed

    DiNicolantonio, James J; Serebruany, Victor L; Tomek, Ales

    2013-10-03

    Ticagrelor, a novel reversible antiplatelet agent, has a black box warning to avoid maintenance doses of aspirin>100mg. However, a significant ticagrelor-early percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) interaction exists. To discuss the inappropriateness of the black box warning for aspirin doses>100mg with ticagrelor and the appropriateness (and need) for a black box warning for ticagrelor patients needing early (within 24 hours of randomization) PCI. The FDA Complete Response Review for ticagrelor indicates that aspirin doses ≥ 300 mg/daily was not a significant interaction. In the ticagrelor-aspirin ≥ 300 mg cohort, all-cause mortality (through study end) and cardiovascular (CV) mortality (through study end) were not significantly increased (HR=1.27; 95% CI, 0.84-1.93, p=0.262 and HR=1.39; 95% CI:0.87-2.2, p=0.170), respectively. However, in patients treated with early (within 24 hours) PCI, ticagrelor significantly increased all-cause mortality (30 day: HR=1.89; 95% CI: 1.26-2.81, p=0.002, and through study end, HR=1.41; 95% CI,1.08-1.84, p=0.012) and increased CV mortality (30 day: HR=1.31; 95% CI: 0.97-1.77, p=0.075, and through study end, HR=1.35; 95% CI, 0.995-1.82, p=0.054) compared to clopidogrel. Early-PCI was more prevalent in the US versus outside-US regions (61% versus 49%). The black box warning for the use of maintenance aspirin doses over 100mg/daily with ticagrelor is inappropriate and ignores the more important, credible, and highly significant ticagrelor-early PCI adverse interaction in PLATO. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Organizing Schools to Address Early Warning Indicators (EWIs): Common Practices and Challenges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Davis, Marcia; Herzog, Liza; Legters, Nettie

    2013-01-01

    An early warning system is an intentional process whereby school personnel collectively analyze student data to monitor students at risk of falling off track for graduation and to provide the interventions and resources to intervene. We studied the process of monitoring the early warning indicators and implementing interventions to ascertain…

  8. Including trait-based early warning signals helps predict population collapse

    PubMed Central

    Clements, Christopher F.; Ozgul, Arpat

    2016-01-01

    Foreseeing population collapse is an on-going target in ecology, and this has led to the development of early warning signals based on expected changes in leading indicators before a bifurcation. Such signals have been sought for in abundance time-series data on a population of interest, with varying degrees of success. Here we move beyond these established methods by including parallel time-series data of abundance and fitness-related trait dynamics. Using data from a microcosm experiment, we show that including information on the dynamics of phenotypic traits such as body size into composite early warning indices can produce more accurate inferences of whether a population is approaching a critical transition than using abundance time-series alone. By including fitness-related trait information alongside traditional abundance-based early warning signals in a single metric of risk, our generalizable approach provides a powerful new way to assess what populations may be on the verge of collapse. PMID:27009968

  9. Safety Early Warning Research for Highway Construction Based on Case-Based Reasoning and Variable Fuzzy Sets

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Yan; Xu, Zhen-Jun

    2013-01-01

    As a high-risk subindustry involved in construction projects, highway construction safety has experienced major developments in the past 20 years, mainly due to the lack of safe early warnings in Chinese construction projects. By combining the current state of early warning technology with the requirements of the State Administration of Work Safety and using case-based reasoning (CBR), this paper expounds on the concept and flow of highway construction safety early warnings based on CBR. The present study provides solutions to three key issues, index selection, accident cause association analysis, and warning degree forecasting implementation, through the use of association rule mining, support vector machine classifiers, and variable fuzzy qualitative and quantitative change criterion modes, which fully cover the needs of safe early warning systems. Using a detailed description of the principles and advantages of each method and by proving the methods' effectiveness and ability to act together in safe early warning applications, effective means and intelligent technology for a safe highway construction early warning system are established. PMID:24191134

  10. Safety early warning research for highway construction based on case-based reasoning and variable fuzzy sets.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yan; Yi, Ting-Hua; Xu, Zhen-Jun

    2013-01-01

    As a high-risk subindustry involved in construction projects, highway construction safety has experienced major developments in the past 20 years, mainly due to the lack of safe early warnings in Chinese construction projects. By combining the current state of early warning technology with the requirements of the State Administration of Work Safety and using case-based reasoning (CBR), this paper expounds on the concept and flow of highway construction safety early warnings based on CBR. The present study provides solutions to three key issues, index selection, accident cause association analysis, and warning degree forecasting implementation, through the use of association rule mining, support vector machine classifiers, and variable fuzzy qualitative and quantitative change criterion modes, which fully cover the needs of safe early warning systems. Using a detailed description of the principles and advantages of each method and by proving the methods' effectiveness and ability to act together in safe early warning applications, effective means and intelligent technology for a safe highway construction early warning system are established.

  11. Crowdsourced earthquake early warning.

    PubMed

    Minson, Sarah E; Brooks, Benjamin A; Glennie, Craig L; Murray, Jessica R; Langbein, John O; Owen, Susan E; Heaton, Thomas H; Iannucci, Robert A; Hauser, Darren L

    2015-04-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an M w (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California's Hayward fault, and real data from the M w 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.

  12. Crowdsourced earthquake early warning

    PubMed Central

    Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.

    2015-01-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing. PMID:26601167

  13. Crowdsourced earthquake early warning

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.

    2015-01-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.

  14. Experience from three years of local capacity development for tsunami early warning in Indonesia: challenges, lessons and the way ahead

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spahn, H.; Hoppe, M.; Vidiarina, H. D.; Usdianto, B.

    2010-07-01

    Five years after the 2004 tsunami, a lot has been achieved to make communities in Indonesia better prepared for tsunamis. This achievement is primarily linked to the development of the Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (InaTEWS). However, many challenges remain. This paper describes the experience with local capacity development for tsunami early warning (TEW) in Indonesia, based on the activities of a pilot project. TEW in Indonesia is still new to disaster management institutions and the public, as is the paradigm of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). The technology components of InaTEWS will soon be fully operational. The major challenge for the system is the establishment of clear institutional arrangements and capacities at national and local levels that support the development of public and institutional response capability at the local level. Due to a lack of information and national guidance, most local actors have a limited understanding of InaTEWS and DRR, and often show little political will and priority to engage in TEW. The often-limited capacity of local governments is contrasted by strong engagement of civil society organisations that opt for early warning based on natural warning signs rather than technology-based early warning. Bringing together the various actors, developing capacities in a multi-stakeholder cooperation for an effective warning system are key challenges for the end-to-end approach of InaTEWS. The development of local response capability needs to receive the same commitment as the development of the system's technology components. Public understanding of and trust in the system comes with knowledge and awareness on the part of the end users of the system and convincing performance on the part of the public service provider. Both sides need to be strengthened. This requires the integration of TEW into DRR, clear institutional arrangements, national guidance and intensive support for capacity development at local levels as well as

  15. Community-based early warning systems for flood risk mitigation in Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Paul J.; Brown, Sarah; Dugar, Sumit

    2017-03-01

    This paper focuses on the use of community-based early warning systems for flood resilience in Nepal. The first part of the work outlines the evolution and current status of these community-based systems, highlighting the limited lead times currently available for early warning. The second part of the paper focuses on the development of a robust operational flood forecasting methodology for use by the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) to enhance early warning lead times. The methodology uses data-based physically interpretable time series models and data assimilation to generate probabilistic forecasts, which are presented in a simple visual tool. The approach is designed to work in situations of limited data availability with an emphasis on sustainability and appropriate technology. The successful application of the forecast methodology to the flood-prone Karnali River basin in western Nepal is outlined, increasing lead times from 2-3 to 7-8 h. The challenges faced in communicating probabilistic forecasts to the last mile of the existing community-based early warning systems across Nepal is discussed. The paper concludes with an assessment of the applicability of this approach in basins and countries beyond Karnali and Nepal and an overview of key lessons learnt from this initiative.

  16. Design of flood early warning system with wifi network based on smartphone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Supani, Ahyar; Andriani, Yuli; Taqwa, Ahmad

    2017-11-01

    Today, the development using internet of things enables activities surrounding us to be monitored, controlled, predicted and calculated remotely through connections to the internet network such as monitoring activities of long-distance flood warning with information technology. Applying an information technology in the field of flood early warning has been developed in the world, either connected to internet network or not. The internet network that has been done in this paper is the design of WiFi network to access data of rainfall, water level and flood status at any time with a smartphone coming from flood early warning system. The results obtained when test of data accessing with smartphone are in form of rainfall and water level graphs against time and flood status indicators consisting of 3 flood states: Standby 2, Standby 1 and Flood. It is concluded that data are from flood early warning system has been able to accessed and displayed on smartphone via WiFi network in any time and real time.

  17. Electric Field Sensor for Lightning Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Premlet, B.; Mohammed, R.; Sabu, S.; Joby, N. E.

    2017-12-01

    Electric field mills are used popularly for atmospheric electric field measurements. Atmospheric Electric Field variation is the primary signature for Lightning Early Warning systems. There is a characteristic change in the atmospheric electric field before lightning during a thundercloud formation.A voltage controlled variable capacitance is being proposed as a method for non-contacting measurement of electric fields. A varactor based mini electric field measurement system is developed, to detect any change in the atmospheric electric field and to issue lightning early warning system. Since this is a low-cost device, this can be used for developing countries which are facing adversities. A network of these devices can help in forming a spatial map of electric field variations over a region, and this can be used for more improved atmospheric electricity studies in developing countries.

  18. The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network: Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kühnlenz, F.; Fischer, J.; Eveslage, I.

    2009-04-01

    SAFER and EDIM working groups, the Department of Computer Science, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany, and Section 2.1 Earthquake Risk and Early Warning, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Germany Contact: Frank Kühnlenz, kuehnlenz@informatik.hu-berlin.de The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network (SOSEWIN) represents a new approach for Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), consisting in taking advantage of novel wireless communications technologies without the need of a planned, centralised infrastructure. It also sets out to overcome problems of insufficient node density, which typically affects present existing early warning systems, by having the SOSEWIN seismological sensing units being comprised of low-cost components (generally bought "off-the-shelf"), with each unit initially costing 100's of Euros, in contrast to 1,000's to 10,000's for standard seismological stations. The reduced sensitivity of the new sensing units arising from the use of lower-cost components will be compensated by the network's density, which in the future is expected to number 100's to 1000's over areas served currently by the order of 10's of standard stations. The robustness, independence of infrastructure, spontaneous extensibility due to a self-healing/self-organizing character in the case of removing/failing or adding sensors makes SOSEWIN potentially useful for various use cases, e.g. monitoring of building structures or seismic microzonation. Nevertheless its main purpose is the earthquake early warning, for which reason the ground motion is continuously monitored by conventional accelerometers (3-component). It uses SEEDLink to store and provide access to the sensor data. SOSEWIN considers also the needs of earthquake task forces, which want to set-up a temporary seismic network rapidly and with light-weighted stations to record after-shocks. The wireless and self-organising character of this sensor network should be of great value

  19. Exploring the Role of Social Memory of Floods for Designing Flood Early Warning Operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Girons Lopez, Marc; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Grabs, Thomas; Halldin, Sven; Seibert, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Early warning systems are an important tool for natural disaster mitigation practices, especially for flooding events. Warnings rely on near-future forecasts to provide time to take preventive actions before a flood occurs, thus reducing potential losses. However, on top of the technical capacities, successful warnings require an efficient coordination and communication among a range of different actors and stakeholders. The complexity of integrating the technical and social spheres of warning systems has, however, resulted in system designs neglecting a number of important aspects such as social awareness of floods thus leading to suboptimal results. A better understanding of the interactions and feedbacks among the different elements of early warning systems is therefore needed to improve their efficiency and therefore social resilience. When designing an early warning system two important decisions need to be made regarding (i) the hazard magnitude at and from which a warning should be issued and (ii) the degree of confidence required for issuing a warning. The first decision is usually taken based on the social vulnerability and climatic variability while the second one is related to the performance (i.e. accuracy) of the forecasting tools. Consequently, by estimating the vulnerability and the accuracy of the forecasts, these two variables can be optimized to minimize the costs and losses. Important parameters with a strong influence on the efficiency of warning systems such as social awareness are however not considered in their design. In this study we present a theoretical exploration of the impact of social awareness on the design of early warning systems. For this purpose we use a definition of social memory of flood events as a proxy for flood risk awareness and test its effect on the optimization of the warning system design variables. Understanding the impact of social awareness on warning system design is important to make more robust warnings that can

  20. Research on early-warning index of the spatial temperature field in concrete dams.

    PubMed

    Yang, Guang; Gu, Chongshi; Bao, Tengfei; Cui, Zhenming; Kan, Kan

    2016-01-01

    Warning indicators of the dam body's temperature are required for the real-time monitoring of the service conditions of concrete dams to ensure safety and normal operations. Warnings theories are traditionally targeted at a single point which have limitations, and the scientific warning theories on global behavior of the temperature field are non-existent. In this paper, first, in 3D space, the behavior of temperature field has regional dissimilarity. Through the Ward spatial clustering method, the temperature field was divided into regions. Second, the degree of order and degree of disorder of the temperature monitoring points were defined by the probability method. Third, the weight values of monitoring points of each regions were explored via projection pursuit. Forth, a temperature entropy expression that can describe degree of order of the spatial temperature field in concrete dams was established. Fifth, the early-warning index of temperature entropy was set up according to the calculated sequential value of temperature entropy. Finally, project cases verified the feasibility of the proposed theories. The early-warning index of temperature entropy is conducive to the improvement of early-warning ability and safety management levels during the operation of high concrete dams.

  1. Application of the Risk-Based Early Warning Method in a Fracture-Karst Water Source, North China.

    PubMed

    Guo, Yongli; Wu, Qing; Li, Changsuo; Zhao, Zhenhua; Sun, Bin; He, Shiyi; Jiang, Guanghui; Zhai, Yuanzheng; Guo, Fang

    2018-03-01

      The paper proposes a risk-based early warning considering characteristics of fracture-karst aquifer in North China and applied it in a super-large fracture-karst water source. Groundwater vulnerability, types of land use, water abundance, transmissivity and spatial temporal variation of groundwater quality were chosen as indexes of the method. Weights of factors were obtained by using AHP method based on relative importance of factors, maps of factors were zoned by GIS, early warning map was conducted based on extension theory with the help of GIS, ENVI+IDL. The early warning map fused five factors very well, serious and tremendous warning areas are mainly located in northwest and east with high or relatively high transmissivity and groundwater pollutant loading, and obviously deteriorated or deteriorated trend of petroleum. The early warning map warns people where more attention should be paid, and the paper guides decision making to take appropriate protection actions in different warning levels areas.

  2. Warning Signs of Youth Violence. Just the Facts: Answers to Your Questions about Psychological Health

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    American Psychological Association (APA), 2002

    2002-01-01

    Violence. It's the act of purposefully hurting someone. And it's a major issue facing today's young adults. This fact sheet answers questions that those aged 12-24 might ask about violence. This age group faces the highest risk of being the victim of violence. Questions regard the causes of youth violence, warning signs, what to do if someone…

  3. Influence of point-of-sale tobacco displays and graphic health warning signs on adults: evidence from a virtual store experimental study.

    PubMed

    Kim, Annice E; Nonnemaker, James M; Loomis, Brett R; Shafer, Paul R; Shaikh, Asma; Hill, Edward; Holloway, John W; Farrelly, Matthew C

    2014-05-01

    We tested the impact of banning tobacco displays and posting graphic health warning signs at the point of sale (POS). We designed 3 variations of the tobacco product display (open, enclosed [not visible], enclosed with pro-tobacco ads) and 2 variations of the warning sign (present vs absent) with virtual store software. In December 2011 and January 2012, we randomized a national convenience sample of 1216 adult smokers and recent quitters to 1 of 6 store conditions and gave them a shopping task. We tested for the main effects of the enclosed display, the sign, and their interaction on urge to smoke and tobacco purchase attempts. The enclosed display significantly lowered current smokers' (B = -7.05; 95% confidence interval [CI] = -13.20, -0.91; P < .05) and recent quitters' (Β = -6.00, 95% CI = -11.00, -1.00; P < .01) urge to smoke and current smokers' purchase attempts (adjusted odds ratio = 0.06; 95% CI = 0.03, 0.11; P < .01). The warning sign had no significant main effect on study outcomes or interaction with enclosed display. These data show that POS tobacco displays influence purchase behavior. Banning them may reduce cues to smoke and unplanned tobacco purchases.

  4. The nurse response to abnormal vital sign recording in the emergency department.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Kimberly D; Mueller, Lindsey; Winkelman, Chris

    2017-01-01

    To examine what occurs after a recorded observation of at least one abnormal vital sign in the emergency department. The aims were to determine how often abnormal vital signs were recorded, what interventions were documented, and what factors were associated with documented follow-up for abnormal vital signs. Monitoring quality of care, and preventing or intervening before harm occurs to patients are central to nurses' roles. Abnormal vital signs have been associated with poor patient outcomes and require follow-up after the observation of abnormal readings to prevent patient harm related to a deteriorating status. This documentation is important to quality and safety of care. Observational, retrospective chart review. Modified Early Warning Score was calculated for all recorded vital signs for 195 charts. Comparisons were made between groups: (1) no abnormal vital signs, (2) abnormal vital sign present, but normal Modified Early Warning Score and (3) critically abnormal Modified Early Warning Score. About 62·1% of charts had an abnormal vital sign documented. Critically abnormal values were present in 14·9%. No documentation was present in 44·6% of abnormal cases. When interventions were documented, it was usually to notify the physician. The timing within the emergency department visit when the abnormalities were observed and the degree of abnormality had significant relationships to the presence of documentation. It is doubtful that nurses do not recognise abnormalities because more severely abnormal vital signs were more likely to have documented follow-up. Perhaps the interruptive nature of the emergency department or the prioritised actions of the nurse impacted documentation within this study. Further research is required to determine why follow-up is not being documented. To ensure safety and quality of patient care, accurate documentation of responses to abnormal vital signs is required. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Final report for the second train warning sign demonstration project on the Los Angeles Metro Blue Line

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2002-01-10

    This demonstration project was carried out to investigate the use of a train activated warning sign as a means of reducing the added hazard for pedestrians of two trains in a highway railroad intersection (HRI) at the same time. The demonstration pro...

  6. Can binary early warning scores perform as well as standard early warning scores for discriminating a patient's risk of cardiac arrest, death or unanticipated intensive care unit admission?

    PubMed

    Jarvis, Stuart; Kovacs, Caroline; Briggs, Jim; Meredith, Paul; Schmidt, Paul E; Featherstone, Peter I; Prytherch, David R; Smith, Gary B

    2015-08-01

    Although the weightings to be summed in an early warning score (EWS) calculation are small, calculation and other errors occur frequently, potentially impacting on hospital efficiency and patient care. Use of a simpler EWS has the potential to reduce errors. We truncated 36 published 'standard' EWSs so that, for each component, only two scores were possible: 0 when the standard EWS scored 0 and 1 when the standard EWS scored greater than 0. Using 1564,153 vital signs observation sets from 68,576 patient care episodes, we compared the discrimination (measured using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve--AUROC) of each standard EWS and its truncated 'binary' equivalent. The binary EWSs had lower AUROCs than the standard EWSs in most cases, although for some the difference was not significant. One system, the binary form of the National Early Warning System (NEWS), had significantly better discrimination than all standard EWSs, except for NEWS. Overall, Binary NEWS at a trigger value of 3 would detect as many adverse outcomes as are detected by NEWS using a trigger of 5, but would require a 15% higher triggering rate. The performance of Binary NEWS is only exceeded by that of standard NEWS. It may be that Binary NEWS, as a simplified system, can be used with fewer errors. However, its introduction could lead to significant increases in workload for ward and rapid response team staff. The balance between fewer errors and a potentially greater workload needs further investigation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Exploring the utility of real-time hydrologic data for landslide early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mirus, B. B.; Smith, J. B.; Becker, R.; Baum, R. L.; Koss, E.

    2017-12-01

    Early warning systems can provide critical information for operations managers, emergency planners, and the public to help reduce fatalities, injuries, and economic losses due to landsliding. For shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides early warning systems typically use empirical rainfall thresholds, whereas the actual triggering mechanism involves the non-linear hydrological processes of infiltration, evapotranspiration, and hillslope drainage that are more difficult to quantify. Because hydrologic monitoring has demonstrated that shallow landslides are often preceded by a rise in soil moisture and pore-water pressures, some researchers have developed early warning criteria that attempt to account for these antecedent wetness conditions through relatively simplistic storage metrics or soil-water balance modeling. Here we explore the potential for directly incorporating antecedent wetness into landslide early warning criteria using recent landslide inventories and in-situ hydrologic monitoring near Seattle, WA, and Portland, OR. We use continuous, near-real-time telemetered soil moisture and pore-water pressure data measured within a few landslide-prone hillslopes in combination with measured and forecasted rainfall totals to inform easy-to-interpret landslide initiation thresholds. Objective evaluation using somewhat limited landslide inventories suggests that our new thresholds based on subsurface hydrologic monitoring and rainfall data compare favorably to the capabilities of existing rainfall-only thresholds for the Seattle area, whereas there are no established rainfall thresholds for the Portland area. This preliminary investigation provides a proof-of-concept for the utility of developing landslide early warning criteria in two different geologic settings using real-time subsurface hydrologic measurements from in-situ instrumentation.

  8. The Lake Victoria Intense Storm Early Warning System (VIEWS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-04-01

    Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on NWP, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that also false alarms contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

  9. Coral Reef Early Warning System (CREWS) RPC Experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Estep, Leland; Spruce, Joseph P.; Hall, Callie

    2007-01-01

    This viewgraph document reviews the background, objectives, methodology, validation, and present status of the Coral Reef Early Warning System (CREWS) Rapid Prototyping Capability (RPC) experiment. The potential NASA contribution to CREWS Decision Support Tool (DST) centers on remotely sensed imagery products.

  10. Using SMAP data to improve drought early warning over the US Great Plains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, R.; Fernando, N.; Tang, W.

    2015-12-01

    A drought prone region such as the Great Plains of the United States (US GP) requires credible and actionable drought early warning. Such information cannot simply be extracted from available climate forecasts because of their large uncertainties at regional scales, and unclear connections to the needs of the decision makers. In particular, current dynamic seasonal predictions and climate projections, such as those produced by the NOAA North American Multi-Model Ensemble experiment (NMME) are much more reliable for winter and spring than for the summer season for the US GP. To mitigate the weaknesses of dynamic prediction/projections, we have identified three key processes behind the spring-to-summer dry memory through observational studies, as the scientific basis for a statistical drought early warning system. This system uses percentile soil moisture anomalies in spring as a key input to provide a probabilistic summer drought early warning. The latter outperforms the dynamic prediction over the US Southern Plains and has been used by the Texas state water agency to support state drought preparedness. A main source of uncertainty for this drought early warning system is the soil moisture input obtained from the NOAA Climate Forecasting System (CFS). We are testing use of the beta version of NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) soil moisture data, along with the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and the long-term Essential Climate Variable Soil Moisture (ECV-SM) soil moisture data, to reduce this uncertainty. Preliminary results based on ECV-SM suggests satellite based soil moisture data could improve early warning of rainfall anomalies over the western US GP with less dense vegetation. The skill degrades over the eastern US GP where denser vegetation is found. We evaluate our SMAP-based drought early warning for 2015 summer against observations.

  11. Ecosystems for Early Warning: Potential Use of Bioindicators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zommers, Z. A.; Sitati, A. M.; Habilov, M.

    2014-12-01

    Bioindicators are biological processes, species or communities, which are used to assess changes in the environment or environmental quality. Theoretically, they could also be used to provide advanced warning of hazards. They are inexpensive, locally relevant, and can encourage stakeholder participation in early warning system development and maintenance. While bioindicators have been identified for environmental problems such as air pollution and water pollution, and have been used to assess health of ecosystems, little information is available on bioindicators for climate related hazards. This presentation reviews possible biodindicators for droughts, wildfires and tropical cyclones, based on the results of a literature review. It will also present results from a household survey of 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso. Indigenous knowledge offers a wealth of potential bioindicators; including animal and insect behavior, and plant phenology. Yet significant study is needed to verify these indicators and evaluate them against criteria such as specificity, variability, monotonicity, practicality and relevance. Bioindicators may not be specific to individual hazards and may provide limited advanced warning, as response often occurs after the actual onset of the hazard. Furthermore, indicators may become increasingly unreliable due to climate change itself. There is a need for a large-scale assessment of hazard bioindicators, which should also include forecasts of bioindicator change under global warming, and a cost-benefit analysis of the value of integrating bioindicators into early warning systems. Lessons can be drawn from ethnopharmacology. Coordinated research on this topic could contribute to the resilience of both ecosystems and human livelihoods.

  12. The Earthquake Early Warning System in Japan (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mori, J. J.; Yamada, M.

    2010-12-01

    In Japan, the earthquake early warning system (Kinkyu Jishin Sokuhou in Japanese) maintained by the Japan Meterological Agency (JMA) has been in operation and sending pubic information since October 1, 2007. Messages have been broadcast on television and radio to warn of strong shaking to the public. The threshold for broadcasting a message is an estimated intensity of JMA 5 lower, which is approximately equivalent to MM VII to VIII. During the period from October 2007 through August 2010, messages have been sent 9 times for earthquakes of magnitude 5.2 to 7.0. There have been a few instances of significantly over-estimating or under-estimating the predicted shaking, but in general the performance of the system has been quite good. The quality of the detection system depends on the dense network of high-quality seismometers that cover the Japanese Islands. Consequently, the system works very well for events on or close to the 4 main islands, but there is more uncertainty for events near the smaller and more distant islands where the density of instrumentation is much less The Early Warning System is also tied to an extensive education program so that the public can react appropriately in the short amount of time given by the warning. There appears to be good public support in Japan, where people have become accustomed to a high level of fast information on a daily basis. There has also been development of a number of specific safety applications in schools and industry that work off the backbone information provided in the national system.

  13. Evaluating the effectiveness of regulatory and warning signs on driver behavior near highway/rail crossings : research project capsule.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2016-12-01

    The primary objective of this research project is to evaluate the effectiveness of regulatory and warning signs on driver behavior : by analyzing their effectiveness in reducing instances of stopped vehicles within the dynamic envelope zone (i.e., th...

  14. Study on the early warning mechanism for the security of blast furnace hearths

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Hong-bo; Huo, Shou-feng; Cheng, Shu-sen

    2013-04-01

    The campaign life of blast furnace (BF) hearths has become the limiting factor for safety and high efficiency production of modern BFs. However, the early warning mechanism of hearth security has not been clear. In this article, based on heat transfer calculations, heat flux and erosion monitoring, the features of heat flux and erosion were analyzed and compared among different types of hearths. The primary detecting elements, mathematical models, evaluating standards, and warning methods were discussed. A novel early warning mechanism with the three-level quantificational standards was proposed for BF hearth security.

  15. Earthquake Early Warning Management based on Client-Server using Primary Wave data from Vibrating Sensor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laumal, F. E.; Nope, K. B. N.; Peli, Y. S.

    2018-01-01

    Early warning is a warning mechanism before an actual incident occurs, can be implemented on natural events such as tsunamis or earthquakes. Earthquakes are classified in tectonic and volcanic types depend on the source and nature. The tremor in the form of energy propagates in all directions as Primary and Secondary waves. Primary wave as initial earthquake vibrations propagates longitudinally, while the secondary wave propagates like as a sinusoidal wave after Primary, destructive and as a real earthquake. To process the primary vibration data captured by the earthquake sensor, a network management required client computer to receives primary data from sensors, authenticate and forward to a server computer to set up an early warning system. With the water propagation concept, a method of early warning system has been determined in which some sensors are located on the same line, sending initial vibrations as primary data on the same scale and the server recommended to the alarm sound as an early warning.

  16. Availability and Reliability of Disaster Early Warning Systems and the IT Infrastructure Library

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wächter, J.; Loewe, P.

    2012-12-01

    The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 caused an information catastrophy. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages. A key challenge stems from the main objective of the IOC Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from sensors to Warning Centers, has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. This task is complicated by the fact that in term of ICT system life cycles tsunami are very rare event resulting in very difficult framing conditions to safeguard the availability and reliability of TWS. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical

  17. Influence of Point-of-Sale Tobacco Displays and Graphic Health Warning Signs on Adults: Evidence From a Virtual Store Experimental Study

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Annice E.; Nonnemaker, James M.; Loomis, Brett R.; Shafer, Paul R.; Shaikh, Asma; Hill, Edward; Holloway, John W.; Farrelly, Matthew C.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives. We tested the impact of banning tobacco displays and posting graphic health warning signs at the point of sale (POS). Methods. We designed 3 variations of the tobacco product display (open, enclosed [not visible], enclosed with pro-tobacco ads) and 2 variations of the warning sign (present vs absent) with virtual store software. In December 2011 and January 2012, we randomized a national convenience sample of 1216 adult smokers and recent quitters to 1 of 6 store conditions and gave them a shopping task. We tested for the main effects of the enclosed display, the sign, and their interaction on urge to smoke and tobacco purchase attempts. Results. The enclosed display significantly lowered current smokers’ (B = −7.05; 95% confidence interval [CI] = −13.20, −0.91; P < .05) and recent quitters’ (Β = −6.00, 95% CI = −11.00, −1.00; P < .01) urge to smoke and current smokers’ purchase attempts (adjusted odds ratio = 0.06; 95% CI = 0.03, 0.11; P < .01). The warning sign had no significant main effect on study outcomes or interaction with enclosed display. Conclusions. These data show that POS tobacco displays influence purchase behavior. Banning them may reduce cues to smoke and unplanned tobacco purchases. PMID:24625149

  18. Body size shifts and early warning signals precede the historic collapse of whale stocks.

    PubMed

    Clements, Christopher F; Blanchard, Julia L; Nash, Kirsty L; Hindell, Mark A; Ozgul, Arpat

    2017-06-22

    Predicting population declines is a key challenge in the face of global environmental change. Abundance-based early warning signals have been shown to precede population collapses; however, such signals are sensitive to the low reliability of abundance estimates. Here, using historical data on whales harvested during the 20th century, we demonstrate that early warning signals can be present not only in the abundance data, but also in the more reliable body size data of wild populations. We show that during the period of commercial whaling, the mean body size of caught whales declined dramatically (by up to 4 m over a 70-year period), leading to early warning signals being detectable up to 40 years before the global collapse of whale stocks. Combining abundance and body size data can reduce the length of the time series required to predict collapse, and decrease the chances of false positive early warning signals.

  19. Early warning of orographically induced floods and landslides in Western Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leine, Ann-Live; Wang, Thea; Boje, Søren

    2017-04-01

    In Western Norway, landslides and debris flows are commonly initiated by short-term orographic rainfall or intensity peaks during a prolonged rainfall event. In recent years, the flood warning service in Norway has evolved from being solely a flood forecasting service to also integrating landslides into its early warning systems. As both floods and landslides are closely related to the same hydrometeorological processes, particularly in small catchments, there is a natural synergy between monitoring flood and landslide risk. The Norwegian Flood and Landslide Hazard Forecasting and Warning Service issues regional landslide hazard warnings based on hydrological models, threshold values, observations and weather forecasts. Intense rainfall events and/or orographic precipitation that, under certain topographic conditions, significantly increase the risk of debris avalanches and debris floods are lately receiving more research focus from the Norwegian warning service. Orographic precipitation is a common feature in W-Norway, when moist and relatively mild air arrives from the Atlantic. Steep mountain slopes covered by glacial till makes the region prone to landslides, as well as flooding. The operational early warning system in Norway requires constant improvement, especially with the enhanced number of intense rainfall events that occur in a warming climate. Here, we examine different cases of intense rainfall events which have lead to landslides and debris flows, as well as increased runoff in fast responding small catchments. The main objective is to increase the understanding of the hydrometeorological conditions related to these events, in order to make priorities for the future development of the warning service.

  20. Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products Resident to the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spruce, Joseph P.; Hargrove, William W.; Gasser, Gerald

    2013-01-01

    Forest threats across the US have become increasingly evident in recent years. Sometimes these have resulted in regionally evident disturbance progressions (e.g., from drought, bark beetle outbreaks, and wildfires) that can occur across multiyear durations and have resulted in extensive forest overstory mortality. In addition to stand replacement disturbances, other forests are subject to ephemeral, sometimes yearly defoliation from various insects and varying types and intensities of ephemeral damage from storms. Sometimes, after prolonged severe disturbance, signs of recovery in terms of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can occur. The growing prominence and threat of forest disturbances in part have led to the formation and implementation of the 2003 Healthy Forest Restoration Act which mandated that national forest threat early warning system be developed and deployed. In response, the US Forest Service collaborated with NASA, DOE Oakridge National Laboratory, and the USGS Eros Data Center to build and roll-out the near real time ForWarn early warning system for monitoring regionally evident forest disturbances. Given the diversity of disturbance types, severities, and durations, ForWarn employs multiple historical baselines that are used with current NDVI to derive a suite of six forest change products that are refreshed every 8 days. ForWarn employs daily quarter kilometer MODIS NDVI data from the Aqua and Terra satellites, including MOD13 data for deriving historical baseline NDVIs and eMODIS 7 NDVI for compiling current NDVI. In doing so, the Time Series Product Tool and the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool are used to temporally de-noise, fuse, and aggregate current and historical MODIS NDVIs into 24 day composites refreshed every 8 days with 46 dates of products per year. The 24 day compositing interval enables disturbances to be detected, while minimizing the frequency of residual atmospheric contamination. Forest change products are

  1. Climate change implications and use of early warning systems for global dust storms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harriman, Lindsey M.

    2014-01-01

    With increased changes in land cover and global climate, early detection and warning of dust storms in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts. Human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns influence dust storms. More research is needed to analyse these factors of dust mobilisation to create more certainty for the fate of vulnerable populations and ecosystems in the future. Early warning and communication systems, when in place and effectively implemented, can offer some relief to these vulnerable areas. As an issue that affects many regions of the world, there is a profound need to understand the potential changes and ultimately create better early warning systems for dust storms.

  2. Establishing the fundamentals for an elephant early warning and monitoring system.

    PubMed

    Zeppelzauer, Matthias; Stoeger, Angela S

    2015-09-04

    The decline of habitat for elephants due to expanding human activity is a serious conservation problem. This has continuously escalated the human-elephant conflict in Africa and Asia. Elephants make extensive use of powerful infrasonic calls (rumbles) that travel distances of up to several kilometers. This makes elephants well-suited for acoustic monitoring because it enables detecting elephants even if they are out of sight. In sight, their distinct visual appearance makes them a good candidate for visual monitoring. We provide an integrated overview of our interdisciplinary project that established the scientific fundamentals for a future early warning and monitoring system for humans who regularly experience serious conflict with elephants. We first draw the big picture of an early warning and monitoring system, then review the developed solutions for automatic acoustic and visual detection, discuss specific challenges and present open future work necessary to build a robust and reliable early warning and monitoring system that is able to operate in situ. We present a method for the automated detection of elephant rumbles that is robust to the diverse noise sources present in situ. We evaluated the method on an extensive set of audio data recorded under natural field conditions. Results show that the proposed method outperforms existing approaches and accurately detects elephant rumbles. Our visual detection method shows that tracking elephants in wildlife videos (of different sizes and postures) is feasible and particularly robust at near distances. From our project results we draw a number of conclusions that are discussed and summarized. We clearly identified the most critical challenges and necessary improvements of the proposed detection methods and conclude that our findings have the potential to form the basis for a future automated early warning system for elephants. We discuss challenges that need to be solved and summarize open topics in the context of

  3. Development of a GNSS-Enhanced Tsunami Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bawden, G. W.; Melbourne, T. I.; Bock, Y.; Song, Y. T.; Komjathy, A.

    2015-12-01

    The past decade has witnessed a terrible loss of life and economic disruption caused by large earthquakes and resultant tsunamis impacting coastal communities and infrastructure across the Indo-Pacific region. NASA has funded the early development of a prototype real-time Global Navigation Satellite System (RT-GNSS) based rapid earthquake and tsunami early warning (GNSS-TEW) system that may be used to enhance seismic tsunami early warning systems for large earthquakes. This prototype GNSS-TEW system geodetically estimates fault parameters (earthquake magnitude, location, strike, dip, and slip magnitude/direction on a gridded fault plane both along strike and at depth) and tsunami source parameters (seafloor displacement, tsunami energy scale, and 3D tsunami initials) within minutes after the mainshock based on dynamic numerical inversions/regressions of the real-time measured displacements within a spatially distributed real-time GNSS network(s) spanning the epicentral region. It is also possible to measure fluctuations in the ionosphere's total electron content (TEC) in the RT-GNSS data caused by the pressure wave from the tsunami. This TEC approach can detect if a tsunami has been triggered by an earthquake, track its waves as they propagate through the oceanic basins, and provide upwards of 45 minutes early warning. These combined real-time geodetic approaches will very quickly address a number of important questions in the immediate minutes following a major earthquake: How big was the earthquake and what are its fault parameters? Could the earthquake have produced a tsunami and was a tsunami generated?

  4. ShakeAlert—An earthquake early warning system for the United States west coast

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burkett, Erin R.; Given, Douglas D.; Jones, Lucile M.

    2014-08-29

    Earthquake early warning systems use earthquake science and the technology of monitoring systems to alert devices and people when shaking waves generated by an earthquake are expected to arrive at their location. The seconds to minutes of advance warning can allow people and systems to take actions to protect life and property from destructive shaking. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with several partners, has been working to develop an early warning system for the United States. ShakeAlert, a system currently under development, is designed to cover the West Coast States of California, Oregon, and Washington.

  5. 10 CFR 850.38 - Warning signs and labels.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... CANCER HAZARD AUTHORIZED PERSONNEL ONLY (b) Warning labels. (1) The responsible employer must affix... CONTAMINATED WITH BERYLLIUM DO NOT REMOVE DUST BY BLOWING OR SHAKING CANCER AND LUNG DISEASE HAZARD (c) Warning...

  6. 10 CFR 850.38 - Warning signs and labels.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... CANCER HAZARD AUTHORIZED PERSONNEL ONLY (b) Warning labels. (1) The responsible employer must affix... CONTAMINATED WITH BERYLLIUM DO NOT REMOVE DUST BY BLOWING OR SHAKING CANCER AND LUNG DISEASE HAZARD (c) Warning...

  7. 10 CFR 850.38 - Warning signs and labels.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... CANCER HAZARD AUTHORIZED PERSONNEL ONLY (b) Warning labels. (1) The responsible employer must affix... CONTAMINATED WITH BERYLLIUM DO NOT REMOVE DUST BY BLOWING OR SHAKING CANCER AND LUNG DISEASE HAZARD (c) Warning...

  8. 10 CFR 850.38 - Warning signs and labels.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... CANCER HAZARD AUTHORIZED PERSONNEL ONLY (b) Warning labels. (1) The responsible employer must affix... CONTAMINATED WITH BERYLLIUM DO NOT REMOVE DUST BY BLOWING OR SHAKING CANCER AND LUNG DISEASE HAZARD (c) Warning...

  9. 10 CFR 850.38 - Warning signs and labels.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... CANCER HAZARD AUTHORIZED PERSONNEL ONLY (b) Warning labels. (1) The responsible employer must affix... CONTAMINATED WITH BERYLLIUM DO NOT REMOVE DUST BY BLOWING OR SHAKING CANCER AND LUNG DISEASE HAZARD (c) Warning...

  10. Early warning signals detect critical impacts of experimental warming.

    PubMed

    Jarvis, Lauren; McCann, Kevin; Tunney, Tyler; Gellner, Gabriel; Fryxell, John M

    2016-09-01

    Earth's surface temperatures are projected to increase by ~1-4°C over the next century, threatening the future of global biodiversity and ecosystem stability. While this has fueled major progress in the field of physiological trait responses to warming, it is currently unclear whether routine population monitoring data can be used to predict temperature-induced population collapse. Here, we integrate trait performance theory with that of critical tipping points to test whether early warning signals can be reliably used to anticipate thermally induced extinction events. We find that a model parameterized by experimental growth rates exhibits critical slowing down in the vicinity of an experimentally tested critical threshold, suggesting that dynamical early warning signals may be useful in detecting the potentially precipitous onset of population collapse due to global climate change.

  11. The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kühnlenz, F.; Eveslage, I.; Fischer, J.; Fleming, K. M.; Lichtblau, B.; Milkereit, C.; Picozzi, M.

    2009-12-01

    The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network (SOSEWIN) represents a new approach for Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), consisting in taking advantage of novel wireless communications technologies without the need of a planned, centralised infrastructure. It also sets out to overcome problems of insufficient node density, which typically affects present existing early warning systems, by having the SOSEWIN seismological sensing units being comprised of low-cost components (generally bought "off-the-shelf"), with each unit initially costing 100's of Euros, in contrast to 1,000's to 10,000's for standard seismological stations. The reduced sensitivity of the new sensing units arising from the use of lower-cost components will be compensated by the network's density, which in the future is expected to number 100's to 1000's over areas served currently by the order of 10's of standard stations. The robustness, independence of infrastructure, spontaneous extensibility due to a self-healing/self-organizing character in the case of removing/failing or adding sensors makes SOSEWIN potentially useful for various use cases, e.g. monitoring of building structures or seismic microzonation. Nevertheless its main purpose is the earthquake early warning, for which reason the ground motion is continuously monitored by conventional accelerometers (3-component) and processed within a station. Based on this, the network itself decides whether an event is detected through cooperating stations. SEEDLink is used to store and provide access to the sensor data. Experiences and selected experiment results with the SOSEWIN-prototype installation in the Ataköy district of Istanbul (Turkey) are presented. SOSEWIN considers also the needs of earthquake task forces, which want to set-up a temporary seismic network rapidly and with light-weighted stations to record after-shocks. The wireless and self-organising character of this sensor network is of great value to do this

  12. Early warning system for Douglas-fir tussock moth outbreaks in the Western United States.

    Treesearch

    Gary E. Daterman; John M. Wenz; Katharine A. Sheehan

    2004-01-01

    The Early Warning System is a pheromone-based trapping system used to detect outbreaks of Douglas-fir tussock moth (DFTM, Orgyia pseudotsugata) in the western United States. Millions of acres are susceptible to DFTM defoliation, but Early Warning System monitoring focuses attention only on the relatively limited areas where outbreaks may be...

  13. The role of integrating natural and social science concepts for risk governance and the design of people-centred early warning systems. Case study from the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System Project (GITEWS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gebert, Niklas; Post, Joachim

    2010-05-01

    The development of early warning systems are one of the key domains of adaptation to global environmental change and contribute very much to the development of societal reaction and adaptive capacities to deal with extreme events. Especially, Indonesia is highly exposed to tsunami. In average every three years small and medium size tsunamis occur in the region causing damage and death. In the aftermath of the Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004, the German and Indonesian government agreed on a joint cooperation to develop a People Centered End-to-End Early Warning System (GITEWS). The analysis of risk and vulnerability, as an important step in risk (and early warning) governance, is a precondition for the design of effective early warning structures by delivering the knowledge base for developing institutionalized quick response mechanisms of organizations involved in the issuing of a tsunami warning, and of populations exposed to react to warnings and to manage evacuation before the first tsunami wave hits. Thus, a special challenge for developing countries is the governance of complex cross-sectoral and cross-scale institutional, social and spatial processes and requirements for the conceptualization, implementation and optimization of a people centered tsunami early warning system. In support of this, the risk and vulnerability assessment of the case study aims at identifying those factors that constitute the causal structure of the (dis)functionality between the technological warning and the social response system causing loss of life during an emergency situation: Which social groups are likely to be less able to receive and respond to an early warning alert? And, are people able to evacuate in due time? Here, only an interdisciplinary research approach is capable to analyze the socio-spatial and environmental conditions of vulnerability and risk and to produce valuable results for decision makers and civil society to manage tsunami risk in the early warning context

  14. Application of τc*Pd in earthquake early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Po-Lun; Lin, Ting-Li; Wu, Yih-Min

    2015-03-01

    Rapid assessment of damage potential and size of an earthquake at the station is highly demanded for onsite earthquake early warning. We study the application of τc*Pd for its estimation on the earthquake size using 123 events recorded by the borehole stations of KiK-net in Japan. The new type of earthquake size determined by τc*Pd is more related to the damage potential. We find that τc*Pd provides another parameter to measure the size of earthquake and the threshold to warn strong ground motion.

  15. Early warning signals for critical transitions in a thermoacoustic system

    PubMed Central

    Gopalakrishnan, E. A.; Sharma, Yogita; John, Tony; Dutta, Partha Sharathi; Sujith, R. I.

    2016-01-01

    Dynamical systems can undergo critical transitions where the system suddenly shifts from one stable state to another at a critical threshold called the tipping point. The decrease in recovery rate to equilibrium (critical slowing down) as the system approaches the tipping point can be used to identify the proximity to a critical transition. Several measures have been adopted to provide early indications of critical transitions that happen in a variety of complex systems. In this study, we use early warning indicators to predict subcritical Hopf bifurcation occurring in a thermoacoustic system by analyzing the observables from experiments and from a theoretical model. We find that the early warning measures perform as robust indicators in the presence and absence of external noise. Thus, we illustrate the applicability of these indicators in an engineering system depicting critical transitions. PMID:27767065

  16. Web-based Tsunami Early Warning System with instant Tsunami Propagation Calculations in the GPU Cloud

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Spazier, J.; Reißland, S.

    2014-12-01

    Usually, tsunami early warning and mitigation systems (TWS or TEWS) are based on several software components deployed in a client-server based infrastructure. The vast majority of systems importantly include desktop-based clients with a graphical user interface (GUI) for the operators in early warning centers. However, in times of cloud computing and ubiquitous computing the use of concepts and paradigms, introduced by continuously evolving approaches in information and communications technology (ICT), have to be considered even for early warning systems (EWS). Based on the experiences and the knowledge gained in three research projects - 'German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System' (GITEWS), 'Distant Early Warning System' (DEWS), and 'Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises' (TRIDEC) - new technologies are exploited to implement a cloud-based and web-based prototype to open up new prospects for EWS. This prototype, named 'TRIDEC Cloud', merges several complementary external and in-house cloud-based services into one platform for automated background computation with graphics processing units (GPU), for web-mapping of hazard specific geospatial data, and for serving relevant functionality to handle, share, and communicate threat specific information in a collaborative and distributed environment. The prototype in its current version addresses tsunami early warning and mitigation. The integration of GPU accelerated tsunami simulation computations have been an integral part of this prototype to foster early warning with on-demand tsunami predictions based on actual source parameters. However, the platform is meant for researchers around the world to make use of the cloud-based GPU computation to analyze other types of geohazards and natural hazards and react upon the computed situation picture with a web-based GUI in a web browser at remote sites. The current website is an early alpha version for demonstration purposes to give the

  17. The pathway to earthquake early warning in the US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, R. M.; Given, D. D.; Heaton, T. H.; Vidale, J. E.; West Coast Earthquake Early Warning Development Team

    2013-05-01

    The development of earthquake early warning capabilities in the United States is now accelerating and expanding as the technical capability to provide warning is demonstrated and additional funding resources are making it possible to expand the current testing region to the entire west coast (California, Oregon and Washington). Over the course of the next two years we plan to build a prototype system that will provide a blueprint for a full public system in the US. California currently has a demonstrations warning system, ShakeAlert, that provides alerts to a group of test users from the public and private sector. These include biotech companies, technology companies, the entertainment industry, the transportation sector, and the emergency planning and response community. Most groups are currently in an evaluation mode, receiving the alerts and developing protocols for future response. The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) system is the one group who has now implemented an automated response to the warning system. BART now stops trains when an earthquake of sufficient size is detected. Research and development also continues to develop improved early warning algorithms to better predict the distribution of shaking in large earthquakes when the finiteness of the source becomes important. The algorithms under development include the use of both seismic and GPS instrumentation and integration with existing point source algorithms. At the same time, initial testing and development of algorithms in and for the Pacific Northwest is underway. In this presentation we will review the current status of the systems, highlight the new research developments, and lay out a pathway to a full public system for the US west coast. The research and development described is ongoing at Caltech, UC Berkeley, University of Washington, ETH Zurich, Southern California Earthquake Center, and the US Geological Survey, and is funded by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and the US Geological

  18. HRAS: a webserver for early warning of human health risk brought by aflatoxin.

    PubMed

    Hu, Ruifeng; Zeng, Xu; Gao, Weiwei; Wang, Qian; Liu, Zhihua

    2013-02-01

    Most people are aware that outdoor air pollution can damage their health, but many do not know that indoor air pollution can also exhibit significant negative health effects. Fungi parasitizing in air conditioning and ventilation systems can be one of indoor air pollution sources. Aflatoxin produced by Aspergillus flavus (A. flavus) became a central focus of indoor air pollution, especially in farmer markets. Therefore we developed an early warning system, Health Risk Assessment System, to estimate the growth rate of A. flavus, predict the amount of aflatoxin and provide early warning information. Firstly, the growth of A. flavus and the production of aflatoxin under different conditions were widely obtained through a comprehensive literature review. Secondly, three mathematical models were established to predict the A. flavus colony growth rate, lag phase duration and aflatoxin content, as functions of temperature and water activity based on present studies. Finally, all the results were evaluated by the user-supplied data using PHP programming language. We utilized the web page to show the results and display warning information. The JpGraph library was used to create a dynamic line chart, refreshing the warning information dynamically in real-time. The HARS provides accurate information for early warning purposes to let us take timely steps to protect ourselves.

  19. Building regional early flood warning systems by AI techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, F. J.; Chang, L. C.; Amin, M. Z. B. M.

    2017-12-01

    Building early flood warning system is essential for the protection of the residents against flood hazards and make actions to mitigate the losses. This study implements AI technology for forecasting multi-step-ahead regional flood inundation maps during storm events. The methodology includes three major schemes: (1) configuring the self-organizing map (SOM) to categorize a large number of regional inundation maps into a meaningful topology; (2) building dynamic neural networks to forecast multi-step-ahead average inundated depths (AID); and (3) adjusting the weights of the selected neuron in the constructed SOM based on the forecasted AID to obtain real-time regional inundation maps. The proposed models are trained, and tested based on a large number of inundation data sets collected in regions with the most frequent and serious flooding in the river basin. The results appear that the SOM topological relationships between individual neurons and their neighbouring neurons are visible and clearly distinguishable, and the hybrid model can continuously provide multistep-ahead visible regional inundation maps with high resolution during storm events, which have relatively small RMSE values and high R2 as compared with numerical simulation data sets. The computing time is only few seconds, and thereby leads to real-time regional flood inundation forecasting and make early flood inundation warning system. We demonstrate that the proposed hybrid ANN-based model has a robust and reliable predictive ability and can be used for early warning to mitigate flood disasters.

  20. Flood Monitoring and Early Warning System Using Ultrasonic Sensor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Natividad, J. G.; Mendez, J. M.

    2018-03-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop a real-time flood monitoring and early warning system in the northern portion of the province of Isabela, particularly the municipalities near Cagayan River. Ultrasonic sensing techniques have become mature and are widely used in the various fields of engineering and basic science. One of advantage of ultrasonic sensing is its outstanding capability to probe inside objective non-destructively because ultrasound can propagate through any kinds of media including solids, liquids and gases. This study focuses only on the water level detection and early warning system (via website and/or SMS) that alerts concern agencies and individuals for a potential flood event. Furthermore, inquiry system is also included in this study to become more interactive wherein individuals in the community could inquire the actual water level and status of the desired area or location affected by flood thru SMS keyword. The study aims in helping citizens to be prepared and knowledgeable whenever there is a flood. The novelty of this work falls under the utilization of the Arduino, ultrasonic sensors, GSM module, web-monitoring and SMS early warning system in helping stakeholders to mitigate casualties related to flood. The paper envisions helping flood-prone areas which are common in the Philippines particularly to the local communities in the province. Indeed, it is relevant and important as per needs for safety and welfare of the community.

  1. Validation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score in Hospitalized Pediatric Oncology and Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant Patients.

    PubMed

    Agulnik, Asya; Forbes, Peter W; Stenquist, Nicole; Rodriguez-Galindo, Carlos; Kleinman, Monica

    2016-04-01

    To evaluate the correlation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score with unplanned transfer to the PICU in hospitalized oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients. We performed a retrospective matched case-control study, comparing the highest documented Pediatric Early Warning Score within 24 hours prior to unplanned PICU transfers in hospitalized pediatric oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients between September 2011 and December 2013. Controls were patients who remained on the inpatient unit and were matched 2:1 using age, condition (oncology vs hematopoietic stem cell transplant), and length of hospital stay. Pediatric Early Warning Scores were documented by nursing staff at least every 4 hours as part of routine care. Need for transfer was determined by a PICU physician called to evaluate the patient. A large tertiary/quaternary free-standing academic children's hospital. One hundred ten hospitalized pediatric oncology patients (42 oncology, 68 hematopoietic stem cell transplant) requiring unplanned PICU transfer and 220 matched controls. None. Using the highest score in the 24 hours prior to transfer for cases and a matched time period for controls, the Pediatric Early Warning Score was highly correlated with the need for PICU transfer overall (area under the receiver operating characteristic = 0.96), and in the oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant groups individually (area under the receiver operating characteristic = 0.95 and 0.96, respectively). The difference in Pediatric Early Warning Score results between the cases and controls was noted as early as 24 hours prior to PICU admission. Seventeen patients died (15.4%). Patients with higher Pediatric Early Warning Scores prior to transfer had increased PICU mortality (p = 0.028) and length of stay (p = 0.004). We demonstrate that our institution's Pediatric Early Warning Score is highly correlated with the need for unplanned PICU transfer in hospitalized oncology and

  2. Earthquake Early Warning ShakeAlert System: Testing and certification platform

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Kohler, Monica D.; Given, Douglas; Guiwits, Stephen; Andrews, Jennifer; Meier, Men-Andrin; Ahmad, Mohammad; Henson, Ivan; Hartog, Renate; Smith, Deborah

    2017-01-01

    Earthquake early warning systems provide warnings to end users of incoming moderate to strong ground shaking from earthquakes. An earthquake early warning system, ShakeAlert, is providing alerts to beta end users in the western United States, specifically California, Oregon, and Washington. An essential aspect of the earthquake early warning system is the development of a framework to test modifications to code to ensure functionality and assess performance. In 2016, a Testing and Certification Platform (TCP) was included in the development of the Production Prototype version of ShakeAlert. The purpose of the TCP is to evaluate the robustness of candidate code that is proposed for deployment on ShakeAlert Production Prototype servers. TCP consists of two main components: a real‐time in situ test that replicates the real‐time production system and an offline playback system to replay test suites. The real‐time tests of system performance assess code optimization and stability. The offline tests comprise a stress test of candidate code to assess if the code is production ready. The test suite includes over 120 events including local, regional, and teleseismic historic earthquakes, recentering and calibration events, and other anomalous and potentially problematic signals. Two assessments of alert performance are conducted. First, point‐source assessments are undertaken to compare magnitude, epicentral location, and origin time with the Advanced National Seismic System Comprehensive Catalog, as well as to evaluate alert latency. Second, we describe assessment of the quality of ground‐motion predictions at end‐user sites by comparing predicted shaking intensities to ShakeMaps for historic events and implement a threshold‐based approach that assesses how often end users initiate the appropriate action, based on their ground‐shaking threshold. TCP has been developed to be a convenient streamlined procedure for objectively testing algorithms, and it has

  3. A Neutral Network based Early Eathquake Warning model in California region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, H.; MacAyeal, D. R.

    2016-12-01

    Early Earthquake Warning systems could reduce loss of lives and other economic impact resulted from natural disaster or man-made calamity. Current systems could be further enhanced by neutral network method. A 3 layer neural network model combined with onsite method was deployed in this paper to improve the recognition time and detection time for large scale earthquakes.The 3 layer neutral network early earthquake warning model adopted the vector feature design for sample events happened within 150 km radius of the epicenters. Dataset used in this paper contained both destructive events and small scale events. All the data was extracted from IRIS database to properly train the model. In the training process, backpropagation algorithm was used to adjust the weight matrices and bias matrices during each iteration. The information in all three channels of the seismometers served as the source in this model. Through designed tests, it was indicated that this model could identify approximately 90 percent of the events' scale correctly. And the early detection could provide informative evidence for public authorities to make further decisions. This indicated that neutral network model could have the potential to strengthen current early warning system, since the onsite method may greatly reduce the responding time and save more lives in such disasters.

  4. Tsunami Early Warning via a Physics-Based Simulation Pipeline

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, J. M.; Rundle, J. B.; Donnellan, A.; Ward, S. N.; Komjathy, A.

    2017-12-01

    Through independent efforts, physics-based simulations of earthquakes, tsunamis, and atmospheric signatures of these phenomenon have been developed. With the goal of producing tsunami forecasts and early warning tools for at-risk regions, we join these three spheres to create a simulation pipeline. The Virtual Quake simulator can produce thousands of years of synthetic seismicity on large, complex fault geometries, as well as the expected surface displacement in tsunamigenic regions. These displacements are used as initial conditions for tsunami simulators, such as Tsunami Squares, to produce catalogs of potential tsunami scenarios with probabilities. Finally, these tsunami scenarios can act as input for simulations of associated ionospheric total electron content, signals which can be detected by GNSS satellites for purposes of early warning in the event of a real tsunami. We present the most recent developments in this project.

  5. Role of remote sensing in desert locust early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cressman, Keith

    2013-01-01

    Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria, Forskål) plagues have historically had devastating consequences on food security in Africa and Asia. The current strategy to reduce the frequency of plagues and manage desert locust infestations is early warning and preventive control. To achieve this, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations operates one of the oldest, largest, and best-known migratory pest monitoring systems in the world. Within this system, remote sensing plays an important role in detecting rainfall and green vegetation. Despite recent technological advances in data management and analysis, communications, and remote sensing, monitoring desert locusts and preventing plagues in the years ahead will continue to be a challenge from a geopolitical and financial standpoint for affected countries and the international donor community. We present an overview of the use of remote sensing in desert locust early warning.

  6. Bistatic Space Borne Radar for Early Warning

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-08-01

    bandwidth of about 1.2 MHz. hr ht RX TX z x α α α α αr αt y R30 R10 R31 R11 vRx vTx P Bistatic Space Borne Radar for Early Warning...B V R == (12) where VRX is the receiver velocity and BA is the Doppler chirp bandwidth defined by equation (5). The time necessary to obtain

  7. Performance of Early Warning Systems on Landslides in Central America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strauch, W.; Devoli, G.

    2012-04-01

    We performed a reconnaissance about Early Warning Systems (EWS) on Landslides (EWSL) in the countries of Central America. The advance of the EWSL began in the 1990-ies and accelerated dramatically after the regional disaster provoked by Hurricane Mitch in 1998. In the last decade, Early Warning Systems were intensely promoted by national and international development programs aimed on disaster prevention. Early Warning on landslides is more complicated than for other geological phenomena. But, we found information on more than 30 EWSL in the region. In practice, for example in planning, implementation and evaluation of development projects, it is often not clearly defined what exactly is an Early Warning System. Only few of the systems can be classified as true EWSL that means 1) being directly and solely aimed at persons living in the well-defined areas of greatest risk and 2) focusing their work on saving lives before the phenomenon impacts. There is little written information about the work of the EWSL after the initial phase. Even, there are no statistics whether they issued warnings, if the warnings were successful, how many people were evacuated, if there were few false alerts, etc.. Actually, we did not find a single report on a successful landslide warning issued by an EWSL. The lack of information is often due to the fact that communitarian EWSL are considered local structures and do not have a clearly defined position in the governmental hierarchy; there is little oversight and no qualified support and long-term support. The EWSL suffer from severe problems as lack of funding on the long term, low technical level, and insufficient support from central institutions. Often the EWSL are implemented by NGÓs with funding from international agencies, but leave the project alone after the initial phase. In many cases, the hope of the local people to get some protection against the landslide hazard is not really fulfilled. There is one case, where an EWSL with a

  8. Analysis of using the tongue deviation angle as a warning sign of a stroke

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    ) and the normal group. With respect to the visual examination, 40% and 32% of stroke patients, 24% and 16% of TIA patients, and 4% and 0% of normal subjects were found to have tongue deviations when physicians “A” and “B” examined them. The variation showed the essentiality of the quantification method in a clinical setting. In the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), the Area Under Curve (AUC, = 0.96) indicates good discrimination. The tongue deviation angle more than the optimum threshold value (= 3.2°) predicts a risk of stroke. Conclusions In summary, we developed an effective quantification method to characterize the tongue deviation angle, and we confirmed the feasibility of recognizing the tongue deviation angle as an early warning sign of an impending stroke. PMID:22908956

  9. Analysis of using the tongue deviation angle as a warning sign of a stroke.

    PubMed

    Wei, Ching-Chuan; Huang, Shu-Wen; Hsu, Sheng-Lin; Chen, Hsing-Chung; Chen, Jong-Shin; Liang, Hsinying

    2012-08-21

    respect to the visual examination, 40% and 32% of stroke patients, 24% and 16% of TIA patients, and 4% and 0% of normal subjects were found to have tongue deviations when physicians "A" and "B" examined them. The variation showed the essentiality of the quantification method in a clinical setting. In the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), the Area Under Curve (AUC, = 0.96) indicates good discrimination. The tongue deviation angle more than the optimum threshold value (= 3.2°) predicts a risk of stroke. In summary, we developed an effective quantification method to characterize the tongue deviation angle, and we confirmed the feasibility of recognizing the tongue deviation angle as an early warning sign of an impending stroke.

  10. Design of a reliable and operational landslide early warning system at regional scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvello, Michele; Piciullo, Luca; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Melillo, Massimo; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Peruccacci, Silvia; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2017-04-01

    Landslide early warning systems at regional scale are used to warn authorities, civil protection personnel and the population about the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides over wide areas, typically through the prediction and measurement of meteorological variables. A warning model for these systems must include a regional correlation law and a decision algorithm. A regional correlation law can be defined as a functional relationship between rainfall and landslides; it is typically based on thresholds of rainfall indicators (e.g., cumulated rainfall, rainfall duration) related to different exceedance probabilities of landslide occurrence. A decision algorithm can be defined as a set of assumptions and procedures linking rainfall thresholds to warning levels. The design and the employment of an operational and reliable early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides at regional scale depend on the identification of a reliable correlation law as well as on the definition of a suitable decision algorithm. Herein, a five-step process chain addressing both issues and based on rainfall thresholds is proposed; the procedure is tested in a landslide-prone area of the Campania region in southern Italy. To this purpose, a database of 96 shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in the period 2003-2010 and rainfall data gathered from 58 rain gauges are used. First, a set of rainfall thresholds are defined applying a frequentist method to reconstructed rainfall conditions triggering landslides in the test area. In the second step, several thresholds at different exceedance probabilities are evaluated, and different percentile combinations are selected for the activation of three warning levels. Subsequently, within steps three and four, the issuing of warning levels is based on the comparison, over time and for each combination, between the measured rainfall and the pre-defined warning level thresholds. Finally, the optimal percentile combination to be employed in

  11. Crowd-Sourced Global Earthquake Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Owen, S. E.; Iannucci, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.

    2014-12-01

    Although earthquake early warning (EEW) has shown great promise for reducing loss of life and property, it has only been implemented in a few regions due, in part, to the prohibitive cost of building the required dense seismic and geodetic networks. However, many cars and consumer smartphones, tablets, laptops, and similar devices contain low-cost versions of the same sensors used for earthquake monitoring. If a workable EEW system could be implemented based on either crowd-sourced observations from consumer devices or very inexpensive networks of instruments built from consumer-quality sensors, EEW coverage could potentially be expanded worldwide. Controlled tests of several accelerometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers typically found in consumer devices show that, while they are significantly noisier than scientific-grade instruments, they are still accurate enough to capture displacements from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes. The accuracy of these sensors varies greatly depending on the type of data collected. Raw coarse acquisition (C/A) code GPS data are relatively noisy. These observations have a surface displacement detection threshold approaching ~1 m and would thus only be useful in large Mw 8+ earthquakes. However, incorporating either satellite-based differential corrections or using a Kalman filter to combine the raw GNSS data with low-cost acceleration data (such as from a smartphone) decreases the noise dramatically. These approaches allow detection thresholds as low as 5 cm, potentially enabling accurate warnings for earthquakes as small as Mw 6.5. Simulated performance tests show that, with data contributed from only a very small fraction of the population, a crowd-sourced EEW system would be capable of warning San Francisco and San Jose of a Mw 7 rupture on California's Hayward fault and could have accurately issued both earthquake and tsunami warnings for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.

  12. Tsunami Early Warning Within Five Minutes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lomax, Anthony; Michelini, Alberto

    2013-09-01

    Tsunamis are most destructive at near to regional distances, arriving within 20-30 min after a causative earthquake; effective early warning at these distances requires notification within 15 min or less. The size and impact of a tsunami also depend on sea floor displacement, which is related to the length, L, width, W, mean slip, D, and depth, z, of the earthquake rupture. Currently, the primary seismic discriminant for tsunami potential is the centroid-moment tensor magnitude, M {w/CMT}, representing the product LWD and estimated via an indirect inversion procedure. However, the obtained M {w/CMT} and the implied LWD value vary with rupture depth, earth model, and other factors, and are only available 20-30 min or more after an earthquake. The use of more direct discriminants for tsunami potential could avoid these problems and aid in effective early warning, especially for near to regional distances. Previously, we presented a direct procedure for rapid assessment of earthquake tsunami potential using two, simple measurements on P-wave seismograms—the predominant period on velocity records, T d , and the likelihood, T {50/Ex}, that the high-frequency, apparent rupture-duration, T 0, exceeds 50-55 s. We have shown that T d and T 0 are related to the critical rupture parameters L, W, D, and z, and that either of the period-duration products T d T 0 or T d T {50/Ex} gives more information on tsunami impact and size than M {w/CMT}, M wp, and other currently used discriminants. These results imply that tsunami potential is not directly related to the product LWD from the "seismic" faulting model, as is assumed with the use of the M {w/CMT} discriminant. Instead, information on rupture length, L, and depth, z, as provided by T d T 0 or T d T {50/Ex}, can constrain well the tsunami potential of an earthquake. We introduce here special treatment of the signal around the S arrival at close stations, a modified, real-time, M wpd(RT) magnitude, and other procedures to

  13. Early Warning for Large Magnitude Earthquakes: Is it feasible?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zollo, A.; Colombelli, S.; Kanamori, H.

    2011-12-01

    The mega-thrust, Mw 9.0, 2011 Tohoku earthquake has re-opened the discussion among the scientific community about the effectiveness of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems, when applied to such large events. Many EEW systems are now under-testing or -development worldwide and most of them are based on the real-time measurement of ground motion parameters in a few second window after the P-wave arrival. Currently, we are using the initial Peak Displacement (Pd), and the Predominant Period (τc), among other parameters, to rapidly estimate the earthquake magnitude and damage potential. A well known problem about the real-time estimation of the magnitude is the parameter saturation. Several authors have shown that the scaling laws between early warning parameters and magnitude are robust and effective up to magnitude 6.5-7; the correlation, however, has not yet been verified for larger events. The Tohoku earthquake occurred near the East coast of Honshu, Japan, on the subduction boundary between the Pacific and the Okhotsk plates. The high quality Kik- and K- networks provided a large quantity of strong motion records of the mainshock, with a wide azimuthal coverage both along the Japan coast and inland. More than 300 3-component accelerograms have been available, with an epicentral distance ranging from about 100 km up to more than 500 km. This earthquake thus presents an optimal case study for testing the physical bases of early warning and to investigate the feasibility of a real-time estimation of earthquake size and damage potential even for M > 7 earthquakes. In the present work we used the acceleration waveform data of the main shock for stations along the coast, up to 200 km epicentral distance. We measured the early warning parameters, Pd and τc, within different time windows, starting from 3 seconds, and expanding the testing time window up to 30 seconds. The aim is to verify the correlation of these parameters with Peak Ground Velocity and Magnitude

  14. Early warning method of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods based on temperature and rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Jingjing; Su, Pengcheng; Cheng, Zunlan

    2017-04-01

    Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are serious disasters in glacial areas. At present, glaciers are retreating while glacial lake area and the outburst risk increases due to the global warming. Therefore, the research of early warning method of GLOFs is important to prevent and reduce the disasters. This paper provides an early warning method using the temperature and rainfall as indices. The daily growth rate of positive antecedent accumulative temperature and the antecedent thirty days accumulative precipitation are calculated for 21 events of GLOF before 2010, based on data from the 21 meteorological stations nearby. The result shows that all the events are above the curve, TV = -0.0193RDC + 3.0018, which can be taken as the early warning threshold curve. This has been verified by the GLOF events in the Ranzeaco glacial lake on 2013-07-05.

  15. Massachusetts Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS). "Technical Descriptions of Risk Model Development": Early and Late Elementary Age Groupings (Grades 1-6)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2013

    2013-01-01

    The Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (Department) created the grades 1-12 Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS) in response to district interest in the Early Warning Indicator Index (EWII) that the Department previously created for rising grade 9 students. Districts shared that the EWII data were helpful, but also…

  16. How do I know if I’ve improved my continental scale flood early warning system?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cloke, Hannah L.; Pappenberger, Florian; Smith, Paul J.; Wetterhall, Fredrik

    2017-04-01

    Flood early warning systems mitigate damages and loss of life and are an economically efficient way of enhancing disaster resilience. The use of continental scale flood early warning systems is rapidly growing. The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) is a pan-European flood early warning system forced by a multi-model ensemble of numerical weather predictions. Responses to scientific and technical changes can be complex in these computationally expensive continental scale systems, and improvements need to be tested by evaluating runs of the whole system. It is demonstrated here that forecast skill is not correlated with the value of warnings. In order to tell if the system has been improved an evaluation strategy is required that considers both forecast skill and warning value. The combination of a multi-forcing ensemble of EFAS flood forecasts is evaluated with a new skill-value strategy. The full multi-forcing ensemble is recommended for operational forecasting, but, there are spatial variations in the optimal forecast combination. Results indicate that optimizing forecasts based on value rather than skill alters the optimal forcing combination and the forecast performance. Also indicated is that model diversity and ensemble size are both important in achieving best overall performance. The use of several evaluation measures that consider both skill and value is strongly recommended when considering improvements to early warning systems.

  17. Earthquake Early Warning Beta Users: Java, Modeling, and Mobile Apps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strauss, J. A.; Vinci, M.; Steele, W. P.; Allen, R. M.; Hellweg, M.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) is a system that can provide a few to tens of seconds warning prior to ground shaking at a user's location. The goal and purpose of such a system is to reduce, or minimize, the damage, costs, and casualties resulting from an earthquake. A demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) is undergoing testing in the United States by the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, Caltech, ETH Zurich, University of Washington, the USGS, and beta users in California and the Pacific Northwest. The beta users receive earthquake information very rapidly in real-time and are providing feedback on their experiences of performance and potential uses within their organization. Beta user interactions allow the ShakeAlert team to discern: which alert delivery options are most effective, what changes would make the UserDisplay more useful in a pre-disaster situation, and most importantly, what actions users plan to take for various scenarios. Actions could include: personal safety approaches, such as drop cover, and hold on; automated processes and procedures, such as opening elevator or fire stations doors; or situational awareness. Users are beginning to determine which policy and technological changes may need to be enacted, and funding requirements to implement their automated controls. The use of models and mobile apps are beginning to augment the basic Java desktop applet. Modeling allows beta users to test their early warning responses against various scenarios without having to wait for a real event. Mobile apps are also changing the possible response landscape, providing other avenues for people to receive information. All of these combine to improve business continuity and resiliency.

  18. 78 FR 78321 - Early Warning Reporting, Foreign Defect Reporting, and Motor Vehicle and Equipment Recall...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-12-26

    ... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 49 CFR Parts 573, 577, and 579 [Docket No. NHTSA--2012-0068; Notice 3] RIN 2127-AK72 Early Warning Reporting, Foreign Defect... final rule. Id. Manufacturers with early warning reporting (EWR) accounts may obtain a copy of the VIN...

  19. REWSET: A prototype seismic and tsunami early warning system in Rhodes island, Greece

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papadopoulos, Gerasimos; Argyris, Ilias; Aggelou, Savvas; Karastathis, Vasilis

    2014-05-01

    Tsunami warning in near-field conditions is a critical issue in the Mediterranean Sea since the most important tsunami sources are situated within tsunami wave travel times starting from about five minutes. The project NEARTOWARN (2012-2013) supported by the EU-DG ECHO contributed substantially to the development of new tools for the near-field tsunami early warning in the Mediterranean. One of the main achievements is the development of a local warning system in the test-site of Rhodes island (Rhodes Early Warning System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis - REWSET). The system is composed by three main subsystems: (1) a network of eight seismic early warning devices installed in four different localities of the island, one in the civil protection, another in the Fire Brigade and another two in municipality buildings; (2) two radar-type (ultrasonic) tide-gauges installed in the eastern coastal zine of the island which was selected since research on the historical earthquake and tsunami activity has indicated that the most important, near-field tsunami sources are situated offshore to the east of Rhodes; (3) a crisis Geographic Management System (GMS), which is a web-based and GIS-based application incorporating a variety of thematic maps and other information types. The seismic early warning devices activate by strong (magnitude around 6 or more) earthquakes occurring at distances up to about 100 km from Rhodes, thus providing immediate mobilization of the civil protection. The tide-gauges transmit sea level data, while during the crisis the GMS supports decisions to be made by civil protection. In the near future it is planned the REWSET system to be integrated with national and international systems. REWSET is a prototype which certainly could be developed in other coastal areas of the Mediterranean and beyond.

  20. TRMM Applications for Rainfall-Induced Landslide Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dok, A.; Fukuoka, H.; Hong, Y.

    2012-04-01

    Early warning system (EWS) is the most effective method in saving lives and reducing property damages resulted from the catastrophic landslides if properly implemented in populated areas of landslide-prone nations. For predicting the occurrence of landslides, it requires examination of empirical relationship between rainfall characteristics and past landslide occurrence. In developed countries like Japan and the US, precipitation is monitored by rain radars and ground-based rain gauge matrix. However, in developing regions like Southeast Asian countries, very limited number of rain gauges is available, and there is no implemented methodology for issuing effective warming of landslides yet. Correspondingly, satellite precipitation monitoring could be therefore a possible and promising solution for launching landslide quasi-real-time early warning system in those countries. It is due to the fact that TMPA (TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis) can provides a globally calibration-based sequential scheme for combining precipitation estimates from multiple satellites, and gauge analyses where feasible, at fine scales (3-hourly with 0.25°x0.25° spatial resolution). It is available both after and in quasi-real time, calibrated by TRMM Combined Instrument and TRMM Microwave Imager precipitation product. However, validation of ground based rain gauge and TRMM satellite data in the vulnerable regions is still not yet operative. Snake-line/Critical-line and Soil Water Index (SWI) are used for issuing warning of landslide occurrence in Japan; whereas, Caine criterion is preferable in Europe and western nations. Herewith, it presents rainfall behavior which took place in Beichuan city (located on the 2008 Chinese Wenchuan earthquake fault), Hofu and Shobara cities in Japan where localized heavy rainfall attacked in 2009 and 2010, respectively, from TRMM 3B42RT correlated with ground based rain gauge data. The 1-day rainfall intensity and 15-day cumulative rainfall

  1. An early warning and control system for urban, drinking water quality protection: China's experience.

    PubMed

    Hou, Dibo; Song, Xiaoxuan; Zhang, Guangxin; Zhang, Hongjian; Loaiciga, Hugo

    2013-07-01

    An event-driven, urban, drinking water quality early warning and control system (DEWS) is proposed to cope with China's urgent need for protecting its urban drinking water. The DEWS has a web service structure and provides users with water quality monitoring functions, water quality early warning functions, and water quality accident decision-making functions. The DEWS functionality is guided by the principles of control theory and risk assessment as applied to the feedback control of urban water supply systems. The DEWS has been deployed in several large Chinese cities and found to perform well insofar as water quality early warning and emergency decision-making is concerned. This paper describes a DEWS for urban water quality protection that has been developed in China.

  2. A Walk through TRIDEC's intermediate Tsunami Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Reißland, S.; Lendholt, M.

    2012-04-01

    The management of natural crises is an important application field of the technology developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), co-funded by the European Commission in its Seventh Framework Programme. TRIDEC is based on the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) providing a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination. In TRIDEC new developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) are used to extend the existing platform realising a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems for deployment, e.g. in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing challenges, such as the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources with accelerated generation of large volumes of data. These include sensor systems, geo-information repositories, simulation tools and data fusion tools. In addition to conventional sensors also unconventional sensors and sensor networks play an important role in TRIDEC. The system version presented is based on service-oriented architecture (SOA) concepts and on relevant standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). In this way the system continuously gathers, processes and displays events and data coming from open sensor platforms to enable operators to quickly decide whether an early warning is necessary and to send personalized warning messages to the authorities and the population at large through a wide range of communication channels. The system

  3. A national survey of obstetric early warning systems in the United Kingdom: five years on.

    PubMed

    Isaacs, R A; Wee, M Y K; Bick, D E; Beake, S; Sheppard, Z A; Thomas, S; Hundley, V; Smith, G B; van Teijlingen, E; Thomas, P W

    2014-07-01

    The Confidential Enquiries into Maternal Deaths in the UK have recommended obstetric early warning systems for early identification of clinical deterioration to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality. This survey explored early warning systems currently used by maternity units in the UK. An electronic questionnaire was sent to all 205 lead obstetric anaesthetists under the auspices of the Obstetric Anaesthetists' Association, generating 130 (63%) responses. All respondents reported use of an obstetric early warning system, compared with 19% in a similar survey in 2007. Respondents agreed that the six most important physiological parameters to record were respiratory rate, heart rate, temperature, systolic and diastolic blood pressure and oxygen saturation. One hundred and eighteen (91%) lead anaesthetists agreed that early warning systems helped to prevent obstetric morbidity. Staffing pressures were perceived as the greatest barrier to their use, and improved audit, education and training for healthcare professionals were identified as priority areas. © 2014 The Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland.

  4. Tsunami warnings: Understanding in Hawai'i

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gregg, Chris E.; Houghton, Bruce F.; Paton, Douglas; Johnston, David M.; Swanson, D.A.; Yanagi, B.S.

    2007-01-01

    The devastating southeast Asian tsunami of December 26, 2004 has brought home the destructive consequences of coastal hazards in an absence of effective warning systems. Since the 1946 tsunami that destroyed much of Hilo, Hawai'i, a network of pole mounted sirens has been used to provide an early public alert of future tsunamis. However, studies in the 1960s showed that understanding of the meaning of siren soundings was very low and that ambiguity in understanding had contributed to fatalities in the 1960 tsunami that again destroyed much of Hilo. The Hawaiian public has since been exposed to monthly tests of the sirens for more than 25 years and descriptions of the system have been widely published in telephone books for at least 45 years. However, currently there remains some uncertainty in the level of public understanding of the sirens and their implications for behavioral response. Here, we show from recent surveys of Hawai'i residents that awareness of the siren tests and test frequency is high, but these factors do not equate with increased understanding of the meaning of the siren, which remains disturbingly low (13%). Furthermore, the length of time people have lived in Hawai'i is not correlated systematically with understanding of the meaning of the sirens. An additional issue is that warning times for tsunamis gene rated locally in Hawai'i will be of the order of minutes to tens of minutes and limit the immediate utility of the sirens. Natural warning signs of such tsunamis may provide the earliest warning to residents. Analysis of a survey subgroup from Hilo suggests that awareness of natural signs is only moderate, and a majority may expect notification via alerts provided by official sources. We conclude that a major change is needed in tsunami education, even in Hawai'i, to increase public understanding of, and effective response to, both future official alerts and natural warning signs of future tsunamis. ?? Springer 2006.

  5. Early Sign Language Exposure and Cochlear Implantation Benefits.

    PubMed

    Geers, Ann E; Mitchell, Christine M; Warner-Czyz, Andrea; Wang, Nae-Yuh; Eisenberg, Laurie S

    2017-07-01

    Most children with hearing loss who receive cochlear implants (CI) learn spoken language, and parents must choose early on whether to use sign language to accompany speech at home. We address whether parents' use of sign language before and after CI positively influences auditory-only speech recognition, speech intelligibility, spoken language, and reading outcomes. Three groups of children with CIs from a nationwide database who differed in the duration of early sign language exposure provided in their homes were compared in their progress through elementary grades. The groups did not differ in demographic, auditory, or linguistic characteristics before implantation. Children without early sign language exposure achieved better speech recognition skills over the first 3 years postimplant and exhibited a statistically significant advantage in spoken language and reading near the end of elementary grades over children exposed to sign language. Over 70% of children without sign language exposure achieved age-appropriate spoken language compared with only 39% of those exposed for 3 or more years. Early speech perception predicted speech intelligibility in middle elementary grades. Children without sign language exposure produced speech that was more intelligible (mean = 70%) than those exposed to sign language (mean = 51%). This study provides the most compelling support yet available in CI literature for the benefits of spoken language input for promoting verbal development in children implanted by 3 years of age. Contrary to earlier published assertions, there was no advantage to parents' use of sign language either before or after CI. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  6. Red warning for air pollution in China: Exploring residents' perceptions of the first two red warnings in Beijing.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Hanping; Wang, Fangping; Niu, Chence; Wang, Han; Zhang, Xiaoxue

    2018-02-01

    Air pollution early warnings have been issued in China to mitigate the effects of high pollution days. Public perceptions and views about early warning signals can affect individual behaviors and play a major role in the public's response to air pollution risks. This study examined public attitudes and responses to the first two red warnings for air pollution in Beijing in 2015. An online survey was sent out, and 664 respondents (response rate = 90%) provided their perspectives on the red warnings. Descriptive statistics, sign tests and binary logit models were used to analyze the data. More than half of the respondents reported that their life and work were affected by the red warning in December 2015. In contrast to their perceptions about the second red warning period, the public thought that the first red warning should have been issued earlier and that the number of consecutive days of warnings should have been reduced. The respondents also recommended that instead of reducing the number of red warnings, the red warning emergency measures should be adjusted. Specifically, the public preferred the installation of air purifiers in schools rather than closing schools and strengthening road flushing and dust pollution controls over restrictions on driving. Data analyses were conducted to examine the affected groups and different groups' perceptions of the necessity of implementing emergency measures. The results indicated that men and more educated respondents were more likely to be affected by driving limitations, and men were less supportive of these limitations. The age and education of respondents were significantly negatively associated with the opinion that schools should be closed, whereas wealthier respondents were more supportive of school closings. The finding of a negative attitude among the public toward the first two red warnings may be used to help local governments modify protective measures and pollution mitigation initiatives to increase

  7. a Process-Based Drought Early Warning Indicator for Supporting State Drought Mitigation Decision

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, R.; Fernando, D. N.; Pu, B.

    2014-12-01

    Drought prone states such as Texas requires creditable and actionable drought early warning ranging from seasonal to multi-decadal scales. Such information cannot be simply extracted from the available climate prediction and projections because of their large uncertainties at regional scales and unclear connections to the needs of the decision makers. In particular, current dynamic seasonal predictions and climate projections, such as those produced by the NOAA national multi-models ensemble experiment (NMME) and the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) models, are much more reliable for winter and spring than for the summer season for the US Southern Plains. They also show little connection between the droughts in winter/spring and those in summer, in contrast to the observed dry memory from spring to summer over that region. To mitigate the weakness of dynamic prediction/projections, we have identified three key processes behind the spring-to-summer dry memory through observational studies. Based on these key processes and related fields, we have developed a multivariate principle component statistical model to provide a probabilistic summer drought early warning indicator, using the observed or predicted climate conditions in winter and spring on seasonal scale and climate projection for the mid-21stcentury. The summer drought early warning indicator is constructed in a similar way to the NOAA probabilistic predictions that are familiar to water resource managers. The indicator skill is assessed using the standard NOAA climate prediction assessment tools, i.e., the two alternative forced choice (2AFC) and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC). Comparison with long-term observations suggest that this summer drought early warning indicator is able to capture nearly all the strong summer droughts and outperform the dynamic prediction in this regard over the US Southern Plains. This early warning indicator has been used by the state water agency in May 2014 in briefing the state

  8. ON-LINE TOXICITY MONITORS AND WATERSHED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A Water Quality Early Warning System using On-line Toxicity Monitors (OTMs) has been deployed in the East Fork of the Little Miami River, Clermont County, OH. Living organisms have long been used to determine the toxicity of environmental samples. With advancements in electronic ...

  9. Vital signs monitoring and nurse-patient interaction: A qualitative observational study of hospital practice.

    PubMed

    Cardona-Morrell, M; Prgomet, M; Lake, R; Nicholson, M; Harrison, R; Long, J; Westbrook, J; Braithwaite, J; Hillman, K

    2016-04-01

    High profile safety failures have demonstrated that recognising early warning signs of clinical and physiological deterioration can prevent or reduce harm resulting from serious adverse events. Early warning scoring systems are now routinely used in many places to detect and escalate deteriorating patients. Timely and accurate vital signs monitoring are critical for ensuring patient safety through providing data for early warning scoring systems, but little is known about current monitoring practices. To establish a profile of nurses' vital signs monitoring practices, related dialogue, and adherence to health service protocol in New South Wales, Australia. Direct observations of nurses' working practices were conducted in two wards. The observations focused on times of the day when vital signs were generally measured. Patient interactions were recorded if occurring any time during the observation periods. Participants (n=42) included nursing staff on one chronic disease medical and one acute surgical ward in a large urban teaching hospital in New South Wales. We observed 441 patient interactions. Measurement of vital signs occurred in 52% of interactions. The minimum five vital signs measures required by New South Wales Health policy were taken in only 6-21% of instances of vital signs monitoring. Vital signs were documented immediately on 93% of vitals-taking occasions and documented according to the policy in the patient's chart on 89% of these occasions. Nurse-patient interactions were initiated for the purpose of taking vital signs in 49% of interactions, with nurse-patient discourse observed during 88% of all interactions. Nurse-patient dialogue led to additional care being provided to patients in 12% of interactions. The selection of appropriate vital signs measured and responses to these appears to rely on nurses' clinical judgement or time availability rather than on policy-mandated frequency. The prevalence of incomplete sets of vital signs may limit

  10. Challenges for operational forecasting and early warning of rainfall induced landslides

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guzzetti, Fausto

    2017-04-01

    In many areas of the world, landslides occur every year, claiming lives and producing severe economic and environmental damage. Many of the landslides with human or economic consequences are the result of intense or prolonged rainfall. For this reason, in many areas the timely forecast of rainfall-induced landslides is of both scientific interest and social relevance. In the recent years, there has been a mounting interest and an increasing demand for operational landslide forecasting, and for associated landslide early warning systems. Despite the relevance of the problem, and the increasing interest and demand, only a few systems have been designed, and are currently operated. Inspection of the - limited - literature on operational landslide forecasting, and on the associated early warning systems, reveals that common criteria and standards for the design, the implementation, the operation, and the evaluation of the performances of the systems, are lacking. This limits the possibility to compare and to evaluate the systems critically, to identify their inherent strengths and weaknesses, and to improve the performance of the systems. Lack of common criteria and of established standards can also limit the credibility of the systems, and consequently their usefulness and potential practical impact. Landslides are very diversified phenomena, and the information and the modelling tools used to attempt landslide forecasting vary largely, depending on the type and size of the landslides, the extent of the geographical area considered, the timeframe of the forecasts, and the scope of the predictions. Consequently, systems for landslide forecasting and early warning can be designed and implemented at several different geographical scales, from the local (site or slope specific) to the regional, or even national scale. The talk focuses on regional to national scale landslide forecasting systems, and specifically on operational systems based on empirical rainfall threshold

  11. The TRIDEC Project: Future-Saving FOSS GIS Applications for Tsunami Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loewe, P.; Wächter, J.; Hammitzsch, M.

    2011-12-01

    The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 killed over 240,000 people in 14 countries and inundated the affected shorelines with waves reaching heights up to 30m. This natural disaster coincided with an information catastrophy, as potentially life-saving early warning information existed, yet no means were available to deliver it to the communities under imminent threat. Tsunami Early Warning Capabilities have improved in the meantime by continuing development of modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). However, recent tsunami events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key challenge for ongoing TEWS research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of reliable early warning messages. Since 2004, the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). This ongoing project focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application. All TRIDEC developments are based on Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) components and industry standards where-ever possible. Tsunami Early Warning in TRIDEC is also based on mature system architecture models to ensure long-term usability and the flexibility to adapt to future generations of Tsunami sensors. All open source software produced by the project consortium are foreseen to be published on FOSSLAB, a publicly available

  12. An early warning system for groundwater pollution based on the assessment of groundwater pollution risks.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Weihong.; Zhao, Yongsheng; Hong, Mei; Guo, Xiaodong

    2009-04-01

    Groundwater pollution usually is complex and concealed, remediation of which is difficult, high cost, time-consuming, and ineffective. An early warning system for groundwater pollution is needed that detects groundwater quality problems and gets the information necessary to make sound decisions before massive groundwater quality degradation occurs. Groundwater pollution early warning were performed by considering comprehensively the current groundwater quality, groundwater quality varying trend and groundwater pollution risk . The map of the basic quality of the groundwater was obtained by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation or BP neural network evaluation. Based on multi-annual groundwater monitoring datasets, Water quality state in sometime of the future was forecasted using time-sequenced analyzing methods. Water quality varying trend was analyzed by Spearman's rank correlative coefficient.The relative risk map of groundwater pollution was estimated through a procedure that identifies, cell by cell,the values of three factors, that is inherent vulnerability, load risk of pollution source and contamination hazard. DRASTIC method was used to assess inherent vulnerability of aquifer. Load risk of pollution source was analyzed based on the potential of contamination and pollution degree. Assessment index of load risk of pollution source which involves the variety of pollution source, quantity of contaminants, releasing potential of pollutants, and distance were determined. The load risks of all sources considered by GIS overlay technology. Early warning model of groundwater pollution combined with ComGIS technology organically, the regional groundwater pollution early-warning information system was developed, and applied it into Qiqiha'er groundwater early warning. It can be used to evaluate current water quality, to forecast water quality changing trend, and to analyze space-time influencing range of groundwater quality by natural process and human activities. Keywords

  13. An Envelope Based Feedback Control System for Earthquake Early Warning: Reality Check Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heaton, T. H.; Karakus, G.; Beck, J. L.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake early warning systems are, in general, designed to be open loop control systems in such a way that the output, i.e., the warning messages, only depend on the input, i.e., recorded ground motions, up to the moment when the message is issued in real-time. We propose an algorithm, which is called Reality Check Algorithm (RCA), which would assess the accuracy of issued warning messages, and then feed the outcome of the assessment back into the system. Then, the system would modify its messages if necessary. That is, we are proposing to convert earthquake early warning systems into feedback control systems by integrating them with RCA. RCA works by continuously monitoring and comparing the observed ground motions' envelopes to the predicted envelopes of Virtual Seismologist (Cua 2005). Accuracy of magnitude and location (both spatial and temporal) estimations of the system are assessed separately by probabilistic classification models, which are trained by a Sparse Bayesian Learning technique called Automatic Relevance Determination prior.

  14. Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System) for Sicily

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Bonaccorso, Brunella; Gueli, Roberto; Basile, Giuseppe

    2017-09-01

    The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System), specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall-runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall-runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015) have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002-2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall threshold models to produce

  15. Global Drought Services: Collaborations Toward an Information System for Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayes, M. J.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Svoboda, M.

    2014-12-01

    Drought is a hazard that lends itself well to diligent, sustained monitoring and early warning. However, unlike most hazards, the fact that droughts typically evolve slowly, can last for months or years and cover vast areas spanning multiple political boundaries/jurisdictions and economic sectors can make it a daunting task to monitor, develop plans for, and identify appropriate, proactive mitigation strategies. The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) and National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) have been working together to reduce societal vulnerability to drought by helping decision makers at all levels to: 1) implement drought early warning/forecasting and decision support systems; 2) support and advocate for better collection of, and understanding of drought impacts; and 3) increase long-term resilience to drought through proactive planning. The NDMC and NIDIS risk management approach has been the basis from which many partners around the world are developing a collaboration and coordination nexus with an ultimate goal of building comprehensive global drought early warning information systems (GDEWIS). The core emphasis of this model is on developing and applying useful and usable information that can be integrated and transferred freely to other regions around the globe. The High-Level Ministerial Declaration on Drought, the Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) co-led by the WMO and the Global Water Partnership (GWP), and the Global Framework for Climate Services are drawing extensively from the integrated NDMC-NIDIS risk management framework. This presentation will describe, in detail, the various drought resources, tools, services, and collaborations already being provided and undertaken at the national and regional scales by the NDMC, NIDIS, and their partners. The presentation will be forward-looking, identifying improvements in existing and proposed mechanisms to help strengthen national and international drought early

  16. DISTANT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM for Tsunamis - A wide-area and multi-hazard approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammitzsch, Martin; Lendholt, Matthias; Wächter, Joachim

    2010-05-01

    The DEWS (Distant Early Warning System) [1] project, funded under the 6th Framework Programme of the European Union, has the objective to create a new generation of interoperable early warning systems based on an open sensor platform. This platform integrates OGC [2] SWE [3] compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of hazardous events, like earthquakes, sea level anomalies, ocean floor occurrences, and ground displacements in the case of tsunami early warning. Based on the upstream information flow DEWS focuses on the improvement of downstream capacities of warning centres especially by improving information logistics for effective and targeted warning message aggregation for a multilingual environment. Multiple telecommunication channels will be used for the dissemination of warning messages. Wherever possible, existing standards have been integrated. The Command and Control User Interface (CCUI), a rich client application based on Eclipse RCP (Rich Client Platform) [4] and the open source GIS uDig [5], integrates various OGC services. Using WMS (Web Map Service) [6] and WFS (Web Feature Service) [7] spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture and to integrate a simulation system via WPS (Web Processing Service) [8] to identify affected areas. Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS [9] CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) [10] standard together with addressing information defined via EDXL-DE (Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element) [11]. Internal interfaces are realized with SOAP [12] web services. Based on results of GITEWS [13] - in particular the GITEWS Tsunami Service Bus [14] - the DEWS approach provides an implementation for tsunami early warning systems but other geological paradigms are going to follow, e.g. volcanic eruptions or landslides. Therefore in future also multi-hazard functionality is conceivable. The specific software architecture of DEWS makes it possible to dock varying sensors to the

  17. Study of Disseminating Landslide Early Warning Information in Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koay, Swee Peng; Lateh, Habibah; Tien Tay, Lea; Ahamd, Jamilah; Chan, Huah Yong; Sakai, Naoki; Jamaludin, Suhaimi

    2015-04-01

    In Malaysia, rain induced landslides are occurring more often than before. The Malaysian Government allocates millions of Malaysian Ringgit for slope monitoring and slope failure remedial measures in the budget every year. In rural areas, local authorities also play a major role in monitoring the slope to prevent casualty by giving information to the residents who are staying near to the slopes. However, there are thousands of slopes which are classified as high risk slopes in Malaysia. Implementing site monitoring system in these slopes to monitor the movement of the soil in the slopes, predicting the occurrence of slopes failure and establishing early warning system are too costly and almost impossible. In our study, we propose Accumulated Rainfall vs. Rainfall Intensity prediction method to predict the slope failure by referring to the predicted rainfall data from radar and the rain volume from rain gauges. The critical line which determines if the slope is in danger, is generated by simulator with well-surveyed the soil property in the slope and compared with historical data. By establishing such predicting system, the slope failure warning information can be obtained and disseminated to the surroundings via SMS, internet and siren. However, establishing the early warning dissemination system is not enough in disaster prevention, educating school children and the community by giving knowledge on landslides, such as landslide's definition, how and why does the slope failure happen and when will it fail, to raise the risk awareness on landslides will reduce landslides casualty, especially in rural area. Moreover, showing video on the risk and symptom of landslides in school will also help the school children gaining the knowledge of landslides. Generating hazard map and landslides historical data provides further information on the occurrence of the slope failure. In future, further study on fine tuning of landslides prediction method, applying IT technology to

  18. Main components and characteristics of landslide early warning systems operational worldwide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piciullo, Luca; Cepeda, José

    2017-04-01

    During the last decades the number of victims and economic losses due to natural hazards are dramatically increased worldwide. The reason can be mainly ascribed to climate changes and urbanization in areas exposed at high level of risk. Among the many mitigation measures available for reducing the risk to life related to natural hazards, early warning systems certainly constitute a significant cost-effective option available to the authorities in charge of risk management and governance. The aim is to help and protect populations exposed to natural hazards, reducing fatalities when major events occur. Landslide is one of the natural hazards addressed by early warning systems. Landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) are mainly composed by the following four components: set-up, correlation laws, decisional algorithm and warning management. Within this framework, the set-up includes all the preliminary actions and choices necessary for designing a LEWS, such as: the area covered by the system, the types of landslides and the monitoring instruments. The monitoring phase provides a series of important information on different variables, considered as triggering factors for landslides, in order to define correlation laws and thresholds. Then, a decisional algorithm is necessary for defining the: number of warning levels to be employed in the system, decision making procedures, and everything else system managers may need for issuing warnings in different warning zones. Finally the warning management is composed by: monitoring and warning strategy; communication strategy; emergency plan and, everything connected to the social sphere. Among LEWSs operational worldwide, two categories can be defined as a function of the scale of analysis: "local" and "territorial" systems. The scale of analysis influences several actions and aspects connected to the design and employment of the system, such as: the actors involved, the monitoring systems, type of landslide phenomena

  19. Global early warning systems for natural hazards: systematic and people-centred.

    PubMed

    Basher, Reid

    2006-08-15

    To be effective, early warning systems for natural hazards need to have not only a sound scientific and technical basis, but also a strong focus on the people exposed to risk, and with a systems approach that incorporates all of the relevant factors in that risk, whether arising from the natural hazards or social vulnerabilities, and from short-term or long-term processes. Disasters are increasing in number and severity and international institutional frameworks to reduce disasters are being strengthened under United Nations oversight. Since the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004, there has been a surge of interest in developing early warning systems to cater to the needs of all countries and all hazards.

  20. Early warning reporting categories analysis of recall and complaints data.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2001-12-31

    This analysis was performed to assist the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) in identifying components and systems to be included in early warning reporting (EWR) categories that would be based upon historical safety-related recal...

  1. Children's misunderstandings of hazard warning signs in the new globally harmonized system for classification and labeling.

    PubMed

    Latham, Garry; Long, Tony; Devitt, Patric

    2013-12-01

    Accidental chemical poisoning causes more than 35 000 child deaths every year across the world, and it leads to disease, disability, and suffering for many more children. Children's ignorance of dangers and their failure to interpret hazard warning signs as intended contribute significantly to this problem. A new Globally Harmonized System for Classification and Labeling is being implemented internationally with a view to unifying the current multiple and disparate national systems. This study was designed to establish a productive, effective means of teaching the new GHS warning signs to primary school children (aged 7-11 years). A pre-test, post-test, follow-up test design was employed, with a teaching intervention informed by a Delphi survey of expert opinion. Children from one school formed the experimental group (n = 49) and a second school provided a control group (n = 23). Both groups showed a gain in knowledge from pre-test to post-test, the experimental group with a larger gain but which was not statistically significant. However, longer-term retention of knowledge, as shown by the follow-up test, was statistically significantly greater in the experimental group (p = 0.001). The employment of teaching to match children's preferred learning styles, and the use of active learning were found to be related to improved retention of knowledge. Part of the study involved eliciting children's interpretation of standard hazard warning symbols, and this provoked considerable concern over the potential for dangerous misinterpretation with disastrous consequences. This article focuses on the reasons for such misconception and the action required to address this successfully in testing the intervention.

  2. Patient attitudes towards remote continuous vital signs monitoring on general surgery wards: An interview study.

    PubMed

    Downey, C L; Brown, J M; Jayne, D G; Randell, R

    2018-06-01

    Vital signs monitoring is used to identify deteriorating patients in hospital. The most common tool for vital signs monitoring is an early warning score, although emerging technologies allow for remote, continuous patient monitoring. A number of reviews have examined the impact of continuous monitoring on patient outcomes, but little is known about the patient experience. This study aims to discover what patients think of monitoring in hospital, with a particular emphasis on intermittent early warning scores versus remote continuous monitoring, in order to inform future implementations of continuous monitoring technology. Semi-structured interviews were undertaken with 12 surgical inpatients as part of a study testing a remote continuous monitoring device. All patients were monitored with both an early warning score and the new device. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using thematic analysis. Patients can see the value in remote, continuous monitoring, particularly overnight. However, patients appreciate the face-to-face aspect of early warning score monitoring as it allows for reassurance, social interaction, and gives them further opportunity to ask questions about their medical care. Early warning score systems are widely used to facilitate detection of the deteriorating patient. Continuous monitoring technologies may provide added reassurance. However, patients value personal contact with their healthcare professionals and remote monitoring should not replace this. We suggest that remote monitoring is best introduced in a phased manner, and initially as an adjunct to usual care, with careful consideration of the patient experience throughout. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Tsunami Early Warning for the Indian Ocean Region - Status and Outlook

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lauterjung, Joern; Rudloff, Alexander; Muench, Ute; Gitews Project Team

    2010-05-01

    The German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) for the Indian Ocean region has gone into operation in Indonesia in November 2008. The system includes a seismological network, together with GPS stations and a network of GPS buoys additionally equipped with ocean bottom pressure sensors and a tide gauge network. The different sensor systems have, for the most part, been installed and now deliver respective data either online or interactively upon request to the Warning Centre in Jakarta. Before 2011, however, the different components requires further optimization and fine tuning, local personnel needs to be trained and eventual problems in the daily operation have to be dealt with. Furthermore a company will be founded in the near future, which will guarantee a sustainable maintenance and operation of the system. This concludes the transfer from a temporarily project into a permanent service. This system established in Indonesia differs from other Tsunami Warning Systems through its application of modern scientific methods and technologies. New procedures for the fast and reliable determination of strong earthquakes, deformation monitoring by GPS, the modeling of tsunamis and the assessment of the situation have been implemented in the Warning System architecture. In particular, the direct incorporation of different sensors provides broad information already at the early stages of Early Warning thus resulting in a stable system and minimizing breakdowns and false alarms. The warning system is designed in an open and modular structure based on the most recent developments and standards of information technology. Therefore, the system can easily integrate additional sensor components to be used for other multi-hazard purposes e.g. meteorological and hydrological events. Up to now the German project group is cooperating in the Indian Ocean region with Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Iran, Yemen, Tanzania and Kenya to set up the equipment primarily for

  4. Assessing the add value of ensemble forecast in a drought early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calmanti, Sandro; Bosi, Lorenzo; Fernandez, Jesus; De Felice, Matteo

    2015-04-01

    The EU-FP7 project EUPORIAS is developing a prototype climate service to enhance the existing food security drought early warning system in Ethiopia. The Livelihoods, Early Assessment and Protection (LEAP) system is the Government of Ethiopia's national food security early warning system, established with the support of WFP and the World Bank in 2008. LEAP was designed to increase the predictability and timeliness of response to drought-related food crises in Ethiopia. It combines early warning with contingency planning and contingency funding, to allow the government, WFP and other partners to provide early assistance in anticipation of an impending catastrophes. Currently, LEAP uses satellite based rainfall estimates to monitor drought conditions and to compute needs. The main aim of the prototype is to use seasonal hindcast data to assess the added value of using ensemble climate rainfall forecasts to estimate the cost of assistance of population hit by major droughts. We outline the decision making process that is informed by the prototype climate service, and we discuss the analysis of the expected and skill of the available rainfall forecast data over Ethiopia. One critical outcome of this analysis is the strong dependence of the expected skill on the observational estimate assumed as reference. A preliminary evaluation of the full prototype products (drought indices and needs estimated) using hindcasts data will also be presented.

  5. Establishing an early warning alert and response network following the Solomon Islands tsunami in 2013.

    PubMed

    Bilve, Augustine; Nogareda, Francisco; Joshua, Cynthia; Ross, Lester; Betcha, Christopher; Durski, Kara; Fleischl, Juliet; Nilles, Eric

    2014-11-01

    On 6 February 2013, an 8.0 magnitude earthquake generated a tsunami that struck the Santa Cruz Islands, Solomon Islands, killing 10 people and displacing over 4700. A post-disaster assessment of the risk of epidemic disease transmission recommended the implementation of an early warning alert and response network (EWARN) to rapidly detect, assess and respond to potential outbreaks in the aftermath of the tsunami. Almost 40% of the Santa Cruz Islands' population were displaced by the disaster, and living in cramped temporary camps with poor or absent sanitation facilities and insufficient access to clean water. There was no early warning disease surveillance system. By 25 February, an EWARN was operational in five health facilities that served 90% of the displaced population. Eight priority diseases or syndromes were reported weekly; unexpected health events were reported immediately. Between 25 February and 19 May, 1177 target diseases or syndrome cases were reported. Seven alerts were investigated. No sustained transmission or epidemics were identified. Reporting compliance was 85%. The EWARN was then transitioned to the routine four-syndrome early warning disease surveillance system. It was necessary to conduct a detailed assessment to evaluate the risk and potential impact of serious infectious disease outbreaks, to assess whether and how enhanced early warning disease surveillance should be implemented. Local capacities and available resources should be considered in planning EWARN implementation. An EWARN can be an opportunity to establish or strengthen early warning disease surveillance capabilities.

  6. An early warning indicator for atmospheric blocking events using transfer operators

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Tantet, Alexis, E-mail: a.j.j.tantet@uu.nl; Burgt, Fiona R. van der; Dijkstra, Henk A.

    The existence of persistent midlatitude atmospheric flow regimes with time-scales larger than 5–10 days and indications of preferred transitions between them motivates to develop early warning indicators for such regime transitions. In this paper, we use a hemispheric barotropic model together with estimates of transfer operators on a reduced phase space to develop an early warning indicator of the zonal to blocked flow transition in this model. It is shown that the spectrum of the transfer operators can be used to study the slow dynamics of the flow as well as the non-Markovian character of the reduction. The slowest motionsmore » are thereby found to have time scales of three to six weeks and to be associated with meta-stable regimes (and their transitions) which can be detected as almost-invariant sets of the transfer operator. From the energy budget of the model, we are able to explain the meta-stability of the regimes and the existence of preferred transition paths. Even though the model is highly simplified, the skill of the early warning indicator is promising, suggesting that the transfer operator approach can be used in parallel to an operational deterministic model for stochastic prediction or to assess forecast uncertainty.« less

  7. Application of satellite products and hydrological modelling for flood early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koriche, Sifan A.; Rientjes, Tom H. M.

    2016-06-01

    Floods have caused devastating impacts to the environment and society in Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. Since flooding events are frequent, this marks the need to develop tools for flood early warning. In this study, we propose a satellite based flood index to identify the runoff source areas that largely contribute to extreme runoff production and floods in the basin. Satellite based products used for development of the flood index are CMORPH (Climate Prediction Center MORPHing technique: 0.25° by 0.25°, daily) product for calculation of the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and a Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEM) for calculation of the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI). Other satellite products used in this study are for rainfall-runoff modelling to represent rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, vegetation cover and topography. Results of the study show that assessment of spatial and temporal rainfall variability by satellite products may well serve in flood early warning. Preliminary findings on effectiveness of the flood index developed in this study indicate that the index is well suited for flood early warning. The index combines SPI and TWI, and preliminary results illustrate the spatial distribution of likely runoff source areas that cause floods in flood prone areas.

  8. Performance Analysis of a Citywide Real-time Landslide Early Warning System in Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Joon-Young; Lee, Seung-Rae; Kang, Sinhang; Lee, Deuk-hwan; Nedumpallile Vasu, Nikhil

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall-induced landslide has been one of the major disasters in Korea since the beginning of 21st century when the global climate change started to give rise to the growth of the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events. In order to mitigate the increasing damage to properties and loss of lives and to provide an effective tool for public officials to manage the landslide disasters, a real-time landslide early warning system with an advanced concept has been developed by taking into account for Busan, the second largest metropolitan city in Korea, as an operational test-bed. The system provides with warning information based on a five-level alert scheme (Normal, Attention, Watch, Alert, and Emergency) using the forecasted/observed rainfall data or the data obtained from ground monitoring (volumetric water content and matric suction). The alert levels are determined by applying seven different thresholds in a step-wise manner following a decision tree. In the pursuit of improved reliability of an early warning level assigned to a specific area, the system makes assessments repetitively using the thresholds of different theoretical backgrounds including statistical(empirical), physically-based, and mathematical analyses as well as direct measurement-based approaches. By mapping the distribution of the five early warning levels determined independently for each of tens of millions grids covering the entire mountainous area of Busan, the regional-scale system can also provide with the early warning information for a specific local area. The fact that the highest warning level is determined by using a concept of a numerically-modelled potential debris-flow risk is another distinctive feature of the system. This study tested the system performance by applying it for four previous rainy seasons in order to validate the operational applicability. During the rainy seasons of 2009, 2011, and 2014, the number of landslides recorded throughout Busan's territory

  9. The Earthquake Closet: Making Early-Warning Useful

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wyss, M.; Trendafiloski, G.

    2009-12-01

    Early-warning of approaching strong shaking that could have fatal consequences is a research field that has made great progress. It makes it possible to reduce the impact on dangerous processes in critical facilities and on trains. However, its potential to save lives has a serious Achilles heel: The time for getting to safety is five to 10 seconds only, in many cities. Occupants of upper floors cannot get out of their buildings and narrow streets are not a safe place in strong earthquakes for people who might be able to exit. Thus, only about 10% of a city’s population can benefit from early-warnings, unless they have access to their own earthquake closet that is strong enough to remain intact in a collapsing building. Such an Earthquake Protection Unit (EPU) may be installed in the structurally strongest part of an existing apartment at low cost. In new constructions, we propose that an earthquake shelter be constructed for each floor, large enough to accommodate all occupants of that floor. These types of EPU should be constructed on top of each other, forming a strong tower, next to the elevator shaft and the staircase, at the center of the building. If an EPU with structural properties equivalent to an E-class building is placed into a building of B-class in South America, for example, we estimate that the chances of surviving shaking of intensity VII is about 30,000 times better inside the closet. The probability of escaping injury inside compared to outside we estimate as about 1,500 times better. Educating the population regarding the usefulness of EPUs will be essential, and P-waves can be used as the early warning signal. The owner of an earthquake closet can easily be motivated to take protective measures, when these involve simply to step into his closet, rather than attempting to exit from the building by running down many flights of stairs. Our intention is to start a discussion how best to construct EPUs and how to introduce legislation that will

  10. Research on the Risk Early Warning Method of Material Supplier Performance in Power Industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Peng; Zhang, Xi

    2018-01-01

    The early warning of supplier performance risk is still in the initial stage interiorly, and research on the early warning mechanism to identify, analyze and prevent the performance risk is few. In this paper, a new method aiming at marerial supplier performance risk in power industry is proposed, firstly, establishing a set of risk early warning indexes, Then use the ECM method to classify the indexes to form different risk grades. Then, improving Crock Ford risk quantization model by considering three indicators, including the stability of power system, economic losses and successful bid ratio to form the predictive risk grade, and ultimately using short board effect principle to form the ultimate risk grade to truly reflect the supplier performance risk. Finally, making empirical analysis on supplier performance and putting forward the counter measures and prevention strategies for different risks.

  11. Seasonal Water Balance Forecasts for Drought Early Warning in Ethiopia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spirig, Christoph; Bhend, Jonas; Liniger, Mark

    2016-04-01

    Droughts severely impact Ethiopian agricultural production. Successful early warning for drought conditions in the upcoming harvest season therefore contributes to better managing food shortages arising from adverse climatic conditions. So far, however, meteorological seasonal forecasts have not been used in Ethiopia's national food security early warning system (i.e. the LEAP platform). Here we analyse the forecast quality of seasonal forecasts of total rainfall and of the meteorological water balance as a proxy for plant available water. We analyse forecast skill of June to September rainfall and water balance from dynamical seasonal forecast systems, the ECMWF System4 and EC-EARTH global forecasting systems. Rainfall forecasts outperform forecasts assuming a stationary climate mainly in north-eastern Ethiopia - an area that is particularly vulnerable to droughts. Forecasts of the water balance index seem to be even more skilful and thus more useful than pure rainfall forecasts. The results vary though for different lead times and skill measures employed. We further explore the potential added value of dynamically downscaling the forecasts through several dynamical regional climate models made available through the EU FP7 project EUPORIAS. Preliminary results suggest that dynamically downscaled seasonal forecasts are not significantly better compared with seasonal forecasts from the global models. We conclude that seasonal forecasts of a simple climate index such as the water balance have the potential to benefit drought early warning in Ethiopia, both due to its positive predictive skill and higher usefulness than seasonal mean quantities.

  12. Novel Algorithms Enabling Rapid, Real-Time Earthquake Monitoring and Tsunami Early Warning Worldwide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lomax, A.; Michelini, A.

    2012-12-01

    We have introduced recently new methods to determine rapidly the tsunami potential and magnitude of large earthquakes (e.g., Lomax and Michelini, 2009ab, 2011, 2012). To validate these methods we have implemented them along with other new algorithms within the Early-est earthquake monitor at INGV-Rome (http://early-est.rm.ingv.it, http://early-est.alomax.net). Early-est is a lightweight software package for real-time earthquake monitoring (including phase picking, phase association and event detection, location, magnitude determination, first-motion mechanism determination, ...), and for tsunami early warning based on discriminants for earthquake tsunami potential. In a simulation using archived broadband seismograms for the devastating M9, 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, Early-est determines: the epicenter within 3 min after the event origin time, discriminants showing very high tsunami potential within 5-7 min, and magnitude Mwpd(RT) 9.0-9.2 and a correct shallow-thrusting mechanism within 8 min. Real-time monitoring with Early-est givess similar results for most large earthquakes using currently available, real-time seismogram data. Here we summarize some of the key algorithms within Early-est that enable rapid, real-time earthquake monitoring and tsunami early warning worldwide: >>> FilterPicker - a general purpose, broad-band, phase detector and picker (http://alomax.net/FilterPicker); >>> Robust, simultaneous association and location using a probabilistic, global-search; >>> Period-duration discriminants TdT0 and TdT50Ex for tsunami potential available within 5 min; >>> Mwpd(RT) magnitude for very large earthquakes available within 10 min; >>> Waveform P polarities determined on broad-band displacement traces, focal mechanisms obtained with the HASH program (Hardebeck and Shearer, 2002); >>> SeisGramWeb - a portable-device ready seismogram viewer using web-services in a browser (http://alomax.net/webtools/sgweb/info.html). References (see also: http

  13. Testing the warning signs of suicidal behavior among suicide ideators using the 2009 National survey on drug abuse and health.

    PubMed

    Gunn, John F; Lester, David; McSwain, Stephanie

    2011-01-01

    In order to help crisis counselors assess clients for their suicidal risk, in 2003 the American Association of Suicidology proposed ten warning signs, memorized through the acronym IS PATH WARM However, little research has been done investigating their effectiveness for predicting suicidal behavior The present study compared (1) suicide ideators with non-suicide ideator controls and (2) suicide ideators with suicide attempters on six of the IS PATH WARM warning signs, along with depression in the past year, marital status, and gender With regards to the comparison between suicide ideators and non-ideators, all variables but gender; abuse of alcohol in the past year, and anxiety in the past year were predictive of suicide ideation. However, when comparing suicide ideators who had not made a suicide attempt with those who had, only anger/aggression, depression in the past year, and marital status were predictive of a suicide attempt.

  14. Cyclic nocturnal awakening: a warning sign of a cluster bout.

    PubMed

    Martins, Isabel Pavão

    2015-04-01

    Cluster headache is an excruciating unilateral headache with autonomic symptoms whose periodic nocturnal activity, which interrupts sleep, has been attributed to a hypothalamic generator. We describe a patient with a longstanding episodic cluster headache who experienced, on two occasions, a period of nocturnal awakenings without pain or autonomic symptoms, lasting one week before the onset of a cluster bout. Awakenings occurred twice/night at the same hours of impending cluster attacks and had no apparent trigger, being unusual for this patient who had no previous sleep disturbances. Neurological examination and brain imaging were normal. This case documents two new aspects of cluster headache. It suggests that repeated nocturnal awakenings can be a warning sign of an impending cluster period, a finding that may have therapeutic implications, and also that hypothalamic activation may begin several days before trigemino-autonomic symptoms, thus behaving as a true bout generator. © International Headache Society 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  15. Avalanching glacier instabilities: Review on processes and early warning perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faillettaz, Jérome; Funk, Martin; Vincent, Christian

    2015-06-01

    Avalanching glacier instabilities are gravity-driven rupture phenomena that might cause major disasters, especially when they are at the origin of a chain of processes. Reliably forecasting such events combined with a timely evacuation of endangered inhabited areas often constitute the most efficient action. Recently, considerable efforts in monitoring, analyzing, and modeling such phenomena have led to significant advances in destabilization process understanding, improving early warning perspectives. The purpose of this paper is to review the recent progress in this domain. Three different types of instabilities can be identified depending on the thermal properties of the ice/bed interface. If cold (1), the maturation of the rupture is associated with a typical time evolution of surface velocities and passive seismic activity. A prediction of the final break off is possible using these precursory signs. For the two other types, water plays a key role in the development of the instability. If the ice/bed interface is partly temperate (2), the presence of meltwater may reduce the basal resistance, which promotes the instability. No clear and easily detectable precursory signs are known in this case, and the only way to infer any potential instability is to monitor the temporal evolution of the thermal regime. The last type of instability (3) concerns steep temperate glacier tongues switching for several days/weeks during the melting season into a so-called "active phase" followed in rare cases by a major break-off event. Although the prediction of such events is still far from being achievable, critical conditions promoting the final instability can be identified.

  16. Improving Early Warning Systems with Categorized Course Resource Usage

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Waddington, R. Joseph; Nam, SungJin; Lonn, Steven; Teasley, Stephanie D.

    2016-01-01

    Early Warning Systems (EWSs) aggregate multiple sources of data to provide timely information to stakeholders about students in need of academic support. There is an increasing need to incorporate relevant data about student behaviors into the algorithms underlying EWSs to improve predictors of students' success or failure. Many EWSs currently…

  17. Land Surface Modeling Applications for Famine Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McNally, A.; Verdin, J. P.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Arsenault, K. R.; Wang, S.; Kumar, S.; Shukla, S.; Funk, C. C.; Pervez, M. S.; Fall, G. M.; Karsten, L. R.

    2015-12-01

    AGU 2015 Fall Meeting Session ID#: 7598 Remote Sensing Applications for Water Resources Management Land Surface Modeling Applications for Famine Early Warning James Verdin, USGS EROS Christa Peters-Lidard, NASA GSFC Amy McNally, NASA GSFC, UMD/ESSIC Kristi Arsenault, NASA GSFC, SAIC Shugong Wang, NASA GSFC, SAIC Sujay Kumar, NASA GSFC, SAIC Shrad Shukla, UCSB Chris Funk, USGS EROS Greg Fall, NOAA Logan Karsten, NOAA, UCAR Famine early warning has traditionally required close monitoring of agro-climatological conditions, putting them in historical context, and projecting them forward to anticipate end-of-season outcomes. In recent years, it has become necessary to factor in the effects of a changing climate as well. There has also been a growing appreciation of the linkage between food security and water availability. In 2009, Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) science partners began developing land surface modeling (LSM) applications to address these needs. With support from the NASA Applied Sciences Program, an instance of the Land Information System (LIS) was developed to specifically support FEWS NET. A simple crop water balance model (GeoWRSI) traditionally used by FEWS NET took its place alongside the Noah land surface model and the latest version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and LIS data readers were developed for FEWS NET precipitation forcings (NOAA's RFE and USGS/UCSB's CHIRPS). The resulting system was successfully used to monitor and project soil moisture conditions in the Horn of Africa, foretelling poor crop outcomes in the OND 2013 and MAM 2014 seasons. In parallel, NOAA created another instance of LIS to monitor snow water resources in Afghanistan, which are an early indicator of water availability for irrigation and crop production. These successes have been followed by investment in LSM implementations to track and project water availability in Sub-Saharan Africa and Yemen, work that is now underway. Adoption of

  18. Longitudinal analysis of one million vital signs in patients in an academic medical center.

    PubMed

    Bleyer, Anthony J; Vidya, Sri; Russell, Gregory B; Jones, Catherine M; Sujata, Leon; Daeihagh, Pirouz; Hire, Donald

    2011-11-01

    Recognition of critically abnormal vital signs has been used to identify critically ill patients for activation of rapid response teams. Most studies have only analyzed vital signs obtained at the time of admission. The intent of this study was to examine the association of critical vital signs occurring at any time during the hospitalization with mortality. All vital sign measurements were obtained for hospitalizations from January 1, 2008 to June 30, 2009 at a large academic medical center. There were 1.15 million individual vital sign determinations obtained in 42,430 admissions on 27,722 patients. Critical vital signs were defined as a systolic blood pressure <85 mmHg, heart rate >120 bpm, temperature <35°C or >38.9°C, oxygen saturation <91%, respiratory rate ≤ 12 or ≥ 24, and level of consciousness recorded as anything but "alert". The presence of a solitary critically abnormal vital sign was associated with a mortality of 0.92% vs. a mortality of 23.6% for three simultaneous critical vital signs. Of those experiencing three simultaneous critical vital signs, only 25% did so within 24h of admission. The Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) and VitalPAC Early Warning Score (VIEWS) were validated as good predictors of mortality at any time point during the hospitalization. The simultaneous presence of three critically abnormal vital signs can occur at any time during the hospital admission and is associated with very high mortality. Early recognition of these events presents an opportunity for decreasing mortality. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. A Cardiac Early Warning System with Multi Channel SCG and ECG Monitoring for Mobile Health

    PubMed Central

    Sahoo, Prasan Kumar; Thakkar, Hiren Kumar; Lee, Ming-Yih

    2017-01-01

    Use of information and communication technology such as smart phone, smart watch, smart glass and portable health monitoring devices for healthcare services has made Mobile Health (mHealth) an emerging research area. Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is considered as a leading cause of death world wide and an increasing number of people die prematurely due to CHD. Under such circumstances, there is a growing demand for a reliable cardiac monitoring system to catch the intermittent abnormalities and detect critical cardiac behaviors which lead to sudden death. Use of mobile devices to collect Electrocardiography (ECG), Seismocardiography (SCG) data and efficient analysis of those data can monitor a patient’s cardiac activities for early warning. This paper presents a novel cardiac data acquisition method and combined analysis of Electrocardiography (ECG) and multi channel Seismocardiography (SCG) data. An early warning system is implemented to monitor the cardiac activities of a person and accuracy assessment of the early warning system is conducted for the ECG data only. The assessment shows 88% accuracy and effectiveness of our proposed analysis, which implies the viability and applicability of the proposed early warning system. PMID:28353681

  20. A Cardiac Early Warning System with Multi Channel SCG and ECG Monitoring for Mobile Health.

    PubMed

    Sahoo, Prasan Kumar; Thakkar, Hiren Kumar; Lee, Ming-Yih

    2017-03-29

    Use of information and communication technology such as smart phone, smart watch, smart glass and portable health monitoring devices for healthcare services has made Mobile Health (mHealth) an emerging research area. Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is considered as a leading cause of death world wide and an increasing number of people die prematurely due to CHD. Under such circumstances, there is a growing demand for a reliable cardiac monitoring system to catch the intermittent abnormalities and detect critical cardiac behaviors which lead to sudden death. Use of mobile devices to collect Electrocardiography (ECG), Seismocardiography (SCG) data and efficient analysis of those data can monitor a patient's cardiac activities for early warning. This paper presents a novel cardiac data acquisition method and combined analysis of Electrocardiography (ECG) and multi channel Seismocardiography (SCG) data. An early warning system is implemented to monitor the cardiac activities of a person and accuracy assessment of the early warning system is conducted for the ECG data only. The assessment shows 88% accuracy and effectiveness of our proposed analysis, which implies the viability and applicability of the proposed early warning system.

  1. Overview and highlights of Early Warning and Crop Condition Assessment project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boatwright, G. O.; Whitehead, V. S.

    1985-01-01

    Work of the Early Warning and Crop Condition Assessment (EW/CCA) project, one of eight projects in the Agriculture and Resources Inventory Surveys Through Aerospace Remote Sensing (AgRISTARS), is reviewed. Its mission, to develop and test remote sensing techniques that enhance operational methodologies for crop condition assessment, was in response to initiatives issued by the Secretary of Agriculture. Meteorologically driven crop stress indicator models have been developed or modified for wheat, maize, grain sorghum, and soybeans. These models provide early warning alerts of potential or actual crop stresses due to water deficits, adverse temperatures, and water excess that could delay planting or harvesting operations. Recommendations are given for future research involving vegetative index numbers and the NOAA and Landsat satellites.

  2. Establishing an early warning alert and response network following the Solomon Islands tsunami in 2013

    PubMed Central

    Bilve, Augustine; Nogareda, Francisco; Joshua, Cynthia; Ross, Lester; Betcha, Christopher; Durski, Kara; Fleischl, Juliet

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Problem On 6 February 2013, an 8.0 magnitude earthquake generated a tsunami that struck the Santa Cruz Islands, Solomon Islands, killing 10 people and displacing over 4700. Approach A post-disaster assessment of the risk of epidemic disease transmission recommended the implementation of an early warning alert and response network (EWARN) to rapidly detect, assess and respond to potential outbreaks in the aftermath of the tsunami. Local setting Almost 40% of the Santa Cruz Islands’ population were displaced by the disaster, and living in cramped temporary camps with poor or absent sanitation facilities and insufficient access to clean water. There was no early warning disease surveillance system. Relevant changes By 25 February, an EWARN was operational in five health facilities that served 90% of the displaced population. Eight priority diseases or syndromes were reported weekly; unexpected health events were reported immediately. Between 25 February and 19 May, 1177 target diseases or syndrome cases were reported. Seven alerts were investigated. No sustained transmission or epidemics were identified. Reporting compliance was 85%. The EWARN was then transitioned to the routine four-syndrome early warning disease surveillance system. Lesson learnt It was necessary to conduct a detailed assessment to evaluate the risk and potential impact of serious infectious disease outbreaks, to assess whether and how enhanced early warning disease surveillance should be implemented. Local capacities and available resources should be considered in planning EWARN implementation. An EWARN can be an opportunity to establish or strengthen early warning disease surveillance capabilities. PMID:25378746

  3. PRESSCA: A regional operative Early Warning System for landslides risk scenario assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ponziani, Francesco; Stelluti, Marco; Berni, Nicola; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2013-04-01

    The Italian national alert system for the hydraulic and hydrogeological risk is ensured by the National Civil Protection Department, through the "Functional Centres" Network, together with scientific/technical Support Centres, named "Competence Centres". The role of the Functional Centres is to alert regional/national civil protection network, to manage the prediction and the monitoring phases, thus ensuring the flow of data for the management of the emergency. The Umbria regional alerting procedure is based on three increasing warning levels of criticality for 6 sub-areas (~1200 km²). Specifically, for each duration (from 1 to 48 hours), three criticality levels are assigned to the rainfall values corresponding to a recurrence interval of 2, 5, and 10 years. In order to improve confidence on the daily work for hydrogeological risk assessment and management, a simple and operational early warning system for the prediction of shallow landslide triggering on regional scale was implemented. The system is primarily based on rainfall thresholds, which represent the main element of evaluation for the early-warning procedures of the Italian Civil Protection system. Following previous studies highlighting that soil moisture conditions play a key role on landslide triggering, a continuous physically-based soil water balance model was implemented for the estimation of soil moisture conditions over the whole regional territory. In fact, a decreasing trend between the cumulated rainfall values over 24, 36 and 48 hours and the soil moisture conditions prior to past landslide events was observed. This trend provides an easy-to-use tool to dynamically adjust the operational rainfall thresholds with the soil moisture conditions simulated by the soil water balance model prior to rainfall events. The application of this procedure allowed decreasing the uncertainties tied to the application of the rainfall thresholds only. The system is actually operational in real-time and it was

  4. Recommendations to harmonize European early warning dosimetry network systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dombrowski, H.; Bleher, M.; De Cort, M.; Dabrowski, R.; Neumaier, S.; Stöhlker, U.

    2017-12-01

    After the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986, followed by the Fukushima Nuclear power plant accident 25 years later, it became obvious that real-time information is required to quickly gain radiological information. As a consequence, the European countries established early warning network systems with the aim to provide an immediate warning in case of a major radiological emergency, to supply reliable information on area dose rates, contamination levels, radioactivity concentrations in air and finally to assess public exposure. This is relevant for governmental decisions on intervention measures in an emergency situation. Since different methods are used by national environmental monitoring systems to measure area dose rate values and activity concentrations, there are significant differences in the results provided by different countries. Because European and neighboring countries report area dose rate data to a central data base operated on behalf of the European Commission, the comparability of the data is crucial for its meaningful interpretation, especially in the case of a nuclear accident with transboundary implications. Only by harmonizing measuring methods and data evaluation, is the comparability of the dose rate data ensured. This publication concentrates on technical requirements and methods with the goal to effectively harmonize area dose rate monitoring data provided by automatic early warning network systems. The requirements and procedures laid down in this publication are based on studies within the MetroERM project, taking into account realistic technical approaches and tested procedures.

  5. Big data managing in a landslide early warning system: experience from a ground-based interferometric radar application

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Intrieri, Emanuele; Bardi, Federica; Fanti, Riccardo; Gigli, Giovanni; Fidolini, Francesco; Casagli, Nicola; Costanzo, Sandra; Raffo, Antonio; Di Massa, Giuseppe; Capparelli, Giovanna; Versace, Pasquale

    2017-10-01

    A big challenge in terms or landslide risk mitigation is represented by increasing the resiliency of society exposed to the risk. Among the possible strategies with which to reach this goal, there is the implementation of early warning systems. This paper describes a procedure to improve early warning activities in areas affected by high landslide risk, such as those classified as critical infrastructures for their central role in society. This research is part of the project LEWIS (Landslides Early Warning Integrated System): An Integrated System for Landslide Monitoring, Early Warning and Risk Mitigation along Lifelines. LEWIS is composed of a susceptibility assessment methodology providing information for single points and areal monitoring systems, a data transmission network and a data collecting and processing center (DCPC), where readings from all monitoring systems and mathematical models converge and which sets the basis for warning and intervention activities. The aim of this paper is to show how logistic issues linked to advanced monitoring techniques, such as big data transfer and storing, can be dealt with compatibly with an early warning system. Therefore, we focus on the interaction between an areal monitoring tool (a ground-based interferometric radar) and the DCPC. By converting complex data into ASCII strings and through appropriate data cropping and average, and by implementing an algorithm for line-of-sight correction, we managed to reduce the data daily output without compromising the capability for performing.

  6. Signs and Symptoms of Early Pregnancy Loss

    PubMed Central

    Sapra, Katherine J.; Joseph, K.S.; Galea, Sandro; Bates, Lisa M.; Louis, Germaine M. Buck; Ananth, Cande V.

    2016-01-01

    Approximately one-third of pregnancies end in loss; however, the natural history of early pregnancy loss, including signs and symptoms preceding loss, has yet to be fully described and its underlying mechanisms fully understood. We searched PubMed/MEDLINE and Embase to identify articles with prospective ascertainment of signs and symptoms, including vaginal bleeding, nausea, and vomiting, of pregnancy loss < 20 weeks gestation in spontaneous conceptions to ascertain existing literature on symptomatology of pregnancy loss. Two preconception and 16 pregnancy cohort studies that ascertained information on bleeding and/or nausea/vomiting prior to pregnancy loss ascertainment were included. Data from these studies indicated increased risk of loss with vaginal bleeding and decreased risk of loss with nausea/vomiting, though these studies were mostly comprised of pregnancies surviving into late first trimester. While such associations are biologically plausible, these study designs are subject to bias, given recruitment of women at later gestational ages and reliance on women presenting to care. Reporting symptoms to clinicians and over long periods may introduce reporting error. Data gaps remain regarding (1) relationships between signs and symptoms and losses occurring very early, prior to care entry; (2) empirical testing of whether relationships between signs and symptoms and loss differ across gestational age; (3) whether similar relationships between signs and symptoms and loss are observed in populations using assisted reproductive technologies; (4) the patterning of multiple signs and symptoms in relation to loss; and (5) how hormonal and physiologic adaptions to early pregnancy relate to symptomatology and pregnancy loss. PMID:27342274

  7. Signs and Symptoms of Early Pregnancy Loss.

    PubMed

    Sapra, Katherine J; Joseph, K S; Galea, Sandro; Bates, Lisa M; Louis, Germaine M Buck; Ananth, Cande V

    2017-04-01

    Approximately one-third of pregnancies end in loss; however, the natural history of early pregnancy loss, including signs and symptoms preceding loss, has yet to be fully described and its underlying mechanisms fully understood. We searched PubMed/MEDLINE and Embase to identify articles with prospective ascertainment of signs and symptoms, including vaginal bleeding, nausea, and vomiting, of pregnancy loss < 20 weeks gestation in spontaneous conceptions to ascertain existing literature on symptomatology of pregnancy loss. Two preconception and 16 pregnancy cohort studies that ascertained information on bleeding and/or nausea/vomiting prior to pregnancy loss ascertainment were included. Data from these studies indicated increased risk of loss with vaginal bleeding and decreased risk of loss with nausea/vomiting, though these studies were mostly comprised of pregnancies surviving into late first trimester. While such associations are biologically plausible, these study designs are subject to bias, given recruitment of women at later gestational ages and reliance on women presenting to care. Reporting symptoms to clinicians and over long periods may introduce reporting error. Data gaps remain regarding (1) relationships between signs and symptoms and losses occurring very early, prior to care entry; (2) empirical testing of whether relationships between signs and symptoms and loss differ across gestational age; (3) whether similar relationships between signs and symptoms and loss are observed in populations using assisted reproductive technologies; (4) the patterning of multiple signs and symptoms in relation to loss; and (5) how hormonal and physiologic adaptions to early pregnancy relate to symptomatology and pregnancy loss.

  8. The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Minson, Sarah E.; Meier, Men-Andrin; Baltay, Annemarie S.; Hanks, Thomas C.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

    2018-01-01

    The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictable. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are in operation or development for many regions around the world, with the goal of providing enough warning of incoming ground shaking to allow people and automated systems to take protective actions to mitigate losses. However, the question of how much warning time is physically possible for specified levels of ground motion has not been addressed. We consider a zero-latency EEW system to determine possible warning times a user could receive in an ideal case. In this case, the only limitation on warning time is the time required for the earthquake to evolve and the time for strong ground motion to arrive at a user’s location. We find that users who wish to be alerted at lower ground motion thresholds will receive more robust warnings with longer average warning times than users who receive warnings for higher ground motion thresholds. EEW systems have the greatest potential benefit for users willing to take action at relatively low ground motion thresholds, whereas users who set relatively high thresholds for taking action are less likely to receive timely and actionable information.

  9. The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates

    PubMed Central

    Hanks, Thomas C.

    2018-01-01

    The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictable. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are in operation or development for many regions around the world, with the goal of providing enough warning of incoming ground shaking to allow people and automated systems to take protective actions to mitigate losses. However, the question of how much warning time is physically possible for specified levels of ground motion has not been addressed. We consider a zero-latency EEW system to determine possible warning times a user could receive in an ideal case. In this case, the only limitation on warning time is the time required for the earthquake to evolve and the time for strong ground motion to arrive at a user’s location. We find that users who wish to be alerted at lower ground motion thresholds will receive more robust warnings with longer average warning times than users who receive warnings for higher ground motion thresholds. EEW systems have the greatest potential benefit for users willing to take action at relatively low ground motion thresholds, whereas users who set relatively high thresholds for taking action are less likely to receive timely and actionable information. PMID:29750190

  10. Definition of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide early warning in Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cancelliere, A.; Peres, D. J.

    2011-12-01

    Extreme rainfall is the main cause of shallow landslides. For risk mitigation, landslide early warning systems can be implemented, on the basis of rainfall monitoring and forecasting, and the use of a landslide triggering model. Several empirical, also referred to as statistical, rainfall-landslide triggering models have been proposed in the scientific literature, and used for early warning systems activated worldwide. Nonetheless, it is not clear how effective are landslide warning systems, and it is difficult to quantify the induced benefits for the implemented ones. Many rainfall thresholds have been determined through the statistical analysis of the rainfall events that have been the cause of past landslides only, thus neglecting the cases of true negatives and false positives, with negative effects on the robustness of the proposed threshold and, probably, on the effectiveness of the warning system. In the present work we address the issue of establishing warning thresholds, which, although in an approximate way, account for the related benefits. We propose the maximization of an objective function, that measures the trade-off between true and false warning issues. A ratio between the disadvantages of false positive and false negatives, not greater than one, is introduced in the function. The effect of this ratio on the determination of the thresholds is analysed. The proposed method is based on the availability of a continuous rainfall time series. In Italy, continuous rainfall time series are available from the 1920s, but practical difficulties arise for using them, as they are not published in the Hydrological Annual Reports, by the Servizio Idrografico e Mareografico Nazionale (National Hydrologic and Oceanographic Service), the manager of the most important rainfall monitoring network in Italy. However, it is possible to have a good approximation of the most intense rainfall events, in terms total rainfall, by using the data of annual maxima of

  11. Geoethical considerations in early warning of flooding and landslides: Case study from Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Devoli, Graziella; Kleivane Krøgli, Ingeborg; Dahl, Mads Peter; Colleuille, Hervé; Nykjær Boje, Søren; Sund, Monica

    2015-04-01

    The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) runs the national early warning systems (EWS) for flooding and shallow landslides in Norway. The two EWSs have been operational since the late 1980s and 2013 respectively, and are based on weather forecasts, various hydro-meteorological prognosis and expert evaluation. Daily warning levels and related information to the public is prepared and presented through custom build internet platforms. In natural hazards sciences, the risk of a specific threat is defined as the product of hazard and consequence. In this context an EWS is intended to work as a mitigation measure in lowering the consequence and thus the risk of the threat. One of several factors determining the quality of such an EWS, is how warnings are communicated to the public. In contrary to what is common practice in some other countries, experts working with EWS in Norway cannot be held personally responsible for consequences of warnings being issued or not. However, the communication of warnings for flooding and landslides at NVE still implies many considerations of geoethical kind. Which are the consequences today for the forecasters when erroneous warning messages are sent because based on a poorly documented analysis? What is for example the most responsible way to describe uncertainties in warnings issued? What is the optimal compromise between avoiding false alarms and not sending out a specific warning? Is it responsible to rely on a "gut feeling"? Some authorities complain in receiving warning messages too often. Is it responsible to begin notifying these, only in cases of "high hazard level" and no longer in cases of "moderate hazard level"? Is it acceptable to issue general warnings for large geographical areas without being able to pinpoint the treat on local scale? What responsibility lies within the EWS in recommending evacuation or other practical measures to local authorities? By presenting how early warnings of flooding and

  12. Probabilistic and Evolutionary Early Warning System: concepts, performances, and case-studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zollo, A.; Emolo, A.; Colombelli, S.; Elia, L.; Festa, G.; Martino, C.; Picozzi, M.

    2013-12-01

    PRESTo (PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem) is a software platform for Earthquake Early Warning that integrates algorithms for real-time earthquake location, magnitude estimation and damage assessment into a highly configurable and easily portable package. In its regional configuration, the software processes, in real-time, the 3-component acceleration data streams coming from seismic stations, for P-waves arrival detection and, in the case a quite large event is occurring, can promptly performs event detection and location, magnitude estimation and peak ground-motion prediction at target sites. The regional approach has been integrated with a threshold-based early warning method that allows, in the very first seconds after a moderate-to-large earthquake, to identify the most Probable Damaged Zone starting from the real-time measurement at near-source stations located at increasing distances from the earthquake epicenter, of the peak displacement (Pd) and predominant period of P-waves (τc), over a few-second long window after the P-wave arrival. Thus, each recording site independently provides an evolutionary alert level, according to the Pd and τc it measured, through a decisional table. Since 2009, PRESTo has been under continuous real-time testing using data streaming from the Iripinia Seismic Network (Southern Italy) and has produced a bulletin of some hundreds low magnitude events, including all the M≥2.5 earthquakes occurred in that period in Irpinia. Recently, PRESTo has been also implemented at the accelerometric network and broad-band networks in South Korea and in Romania, and off-line tested in Iberian Peninsula, in Turkey, in Israel, and in Japan. The feasibility of an Early Warning System at national scale, is currently under testing by studying the performances of the PRESTo platform for the Italian Accelerometric Network. Moreover, PRESTo is under experimentation in order to provide alert in a high-school located in the

  13. Continuous estimates on the earthquake early warning magnitude by use of the near-field acceleration records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Jun; Jin, Xing; Wei, Yongxiang; Zhang, Hongcai

    2013-10-01

    In this article, the seismic records of Japan's Kik-net are selected to measure the acceleration, displacement, and effective peak acceleration of each seismic record within a certain time after P wave, then a continuous estimation is given on earthquake early warning magnitude through statistical analysis method, and Wenchuan earthquake record is utilized to check the method. The results show that the reliability of earthquake early warning magnitude continuously increases with the increase of the seismic information, the biggest residual happens if the acceleration is adopted to fit earthquake magnitude, which may be caused by rich high-frequency components and large dispersion of peak value in acceleration record, the influence caused by the high-frequency components can be effectively reduced if the effective peak acceleration and peak displacement is adopted, it is estimated that the dispersion of earthquake magnitude obviously reduces, but it is easy for peak displacement to be affected by long-period drifting. In various components, the residual enlargement phenomenon at vertical direction is almost unobvious, thus it is recommended in this article that the effective peak acceleration at vertical direction is preferred to estimate earthquake early warning magnitude. Through adopting Wenchuan strong earthquake record to check the method mentioned in this article, it is found that this method can be used to quickly, stably, and accurately estimate the early warning magnitude of this earthquake, which shows that this method is completely applicable for earthquake early warning.

  14. Early warning, warning or alarm systems for natural hazards? A generic classification.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sättele, Martina; Bründl, Michael; Straub, Daniel

    2013-04-01

    Early warning, warning and alarm systems have gained popularity in recent years as cost-efficient measures for dangerous natural hazard processes such as floods, storms, rock and snow avalanches, debris flows, rock and ice falls, landslides, flash floods, glacier lake outburst floods, forest fires and even earthquakes. These systems can generate information before an event causes loss of property and life. In this way, they mainly mitigate the overall risk by reducing the presence probability of endangered objects. These systems are typically prototypes tailored to specific project needs. Despite their importance there is no recognised system classification. This contribution classifies warning and alarm systems into three classes: i) threshold systems, ii) expert systems and iii) model-based expert systems. The result is a generic classification, which takes the characteristics of the natural hazard process itself and the related monitoring possibilities into account. The choice of the monitoring parameters directly determines the system's lead time. The classification of 52 active systems moreover revealed typical system characteristics for each system class. i) Threshold systems monitor dynamic process parameters of ongoing events (e.g. water level of a debris flow) and incorporate minor lead times. They have a local geographical coverage and a predefined threshold determines if an alarm is automatically activated to warn endangered objects, authorities and system operators. ii) Expert systems monitor direct changes in the variable disposition (e.g crack opening before a rock avalanche) or trigger events (e.g. heavy rain) at a local scale before the main event starts and thus offer extended lead times. The final alarm decision incorporates human, model and organisational related factors. iii) Model-based expert systems monitor indirect changes in the variable disposition (e.g. snow temperature, height or solar radiation that influence the occurrence probability

  15. Landslide early warning system prototype with GIS analysis indicates by soil movement and rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Artha, Y.; Julian, E. S.

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this paper is developing and testing of landslide early warning system. The early warning system uses accelerometersas ground movement and tilt-sensing device and a water flow sensor. A microcentroller is used to process the input signal and activate the alarm. An LCD is used to display the acceleration in x,y and z axis. When the soil moved or shifted and rainfall reached 100 mm/day, the alarm rang and signal were sentto the monitoring center via a telemetry system.Data logging information and GIS spatial data can be monitored remotely as tables and graphics as well as in the form of geographical map with the help of web-GIS interface. The system were tested at Kampung Gerendong, Desa Putat Nutug, Kecamatan Ciseeng, Kabupaten Bogor. This area has 3.15 cumulative score, which mean vulnerable to landslide. The results show that the early warning system worked as planned.

  16. Development and Use of Early Warning Systems. SLDS Spotlight

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curtin, Jenny; Hurwitch, Bill; Olson, Tom

    2012-01-01

    An early warning system is a data-based tool that helps predict which students are on the right path towards eventual graduation or other grade-appropriate goals. Through such systems, stakeholders at the school and district levels can view data from a wide range of perspectives and gain a deeper understanding of student data. This "Statewide…

  17. Development of a Low Cost Earthquake Early Warning System in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Y. M.

    2017-12-01

    The National Taiwan University (NTU) developed an earthquake early warning (EEW) system for research purposes using low-cost accelerometers (P-Alert) since 2010. As of 2017, a total of 650 stations have been deployed and configured. The NTU system can provide earthquake information within 15 s of an earthquake occurrence. Thus, this system may provide early warnings for cities located more than 50 km from the epicenter. Additionally, the NTU system also has an onsite alert function that triggers a warning for incoming P-waves greater than a certain magnitude threshold, thus providing a 2-3 s lead time before peak ground acceleration (PGA) for regions close to an epicenter. Detailed shaking maps are produced by the NTU system within one or two minutes after an earthquake. Recently, a new module named ShakeAlarm has been developed. Equipped with real-time acceleration signals and the time-dependent anisotropic attenuation relationship of the PGA, ShakingAlarm can provide an accurate PGA estimation immediately before the arrival of the observed PGA. This unique advantage produces sufficient lead time for hazard assessment and emergency response, which is unavailable for traditional shakemap, which are based on only the PGA observed in real time. The performance of ShakingAlarm was tested with six M > 5.5 inland earthquakes from 2013 to 2016. Taking the 2016 M6.4 Meinong earthquake simulation as an example, the predicted PGA converges to a stable value and produces a predicted shake map and an isocontour map of the predicted PGA within 16 seconds of earthquake occurrence. Compared with traditional regional EEW system, ShakingAlarm can effectively identify possible damage regions and provide valuable early warning information (magnitude and PGA) for risk mitigation.

  18. Driving behaviour responses to a moose encounter, automatic speed camera, wildlife warning sign and radio message determined in a factorial simulator study.

    PubMed

    Jägerbrand, Annika K; Antonson, Hans

    2016-01-01

    In a driving simulator study, driving behaviour responses (speed and deceleration) to encountering a moose, automatic speed camera, wildlife warning sign and radio message, with or without a wildlife fence and in dense forest or open landscape, were analysed. The study consisted of a factorial experiment that examined responses to factors singly and in combination over 9-km road stretches driven eight times by 25 participants (10 men, 15 women). The aims were to: determine the most effective animal-vehicle collision (AVC) countermeasures in reducing vehicle speed and test whether these are more effective in combination for reducing vehicle speed; identify the most effective countermeasures on encountering moose; and determine whether the driving responses to AVC countermeasures are affected by the presence of wildlife fences and landscape characteristics. The AVC countermeasures that proved most effective in reducing vehicle speed were a wildlife warning sign and radio message, while automatic speed cameras had a speed-increasing effect. There were no statistically significant interactions between different countermeasures and moose encounters. However, there was a tendency for a stronger speed-reducing effect from the radio message warning and from a combination of a radio message and wildlife warning sign in velocity profiles covering longer driving distances than the statistical tests. Encountering a moose during the drive had the overall strongest speed-reducing effect and gave the strongest deceleration, indicating that moose decoys or moose artwork might be useful as speed-reducing countermeasures. Furthermore, drivers reduced speed earlier on encountering a moose in open landscape and had lower velocity when driving past it. The presence of a wildlife fence on encountering the moose resulted in smaller deceleration. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Earthquake early warning for Romania - most recent improvements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marmureanu, Alexandru; Elia, Luca; Martino, Claudio; Colombelli, Simona; Zollo, Aldo; Cioflan, Carmen; Toader, Victorin; Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Marius Craiu, George; Ionescu, Constantin

    2014-05-01

    EWS for Vrancea earthquakes uses the time interval (28-32 sec.) between the moment when the earthquake is detected by the local seismic network installed in the epicenter area (Vrancea) and the arrival time of the seismic waves in the protected area (Bucharest) to send earthquake warning to users. In the last years, National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP) upgraded its seismic network in order to cover better the seismic zones of Romania. Currently the National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP) operates a real-time seismic network designed to monitor the seismic activity on the Romania territory, dominated by the Vrancea intermediate-depth (60-200 km) earthquakes. The NIEP real-time network consists of 102 stations and two seismic arrays equipped with different high quality digitizers (Kinemetrics K2, Quanterra Q330, Quanterra Q330HR, PS6-26, Basalt), broadband and short period seismometers (CMG3ESP, CMG40T, KS2000, KS54000, KS2000, CMG3T,STS2, SH-1, S13, Ranger, gs21, Mark l22) and acceleration sensors (Episensor). Recent improvement of the seismic network and real-time communication technologies allows implementation of a nation-wide EEWS for Vrancea and other seismic sources from Romania. We present a regional approach to Earthquake Early Warning for Romania earthquakes. The regional approach is based on PRESTo (Probabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem) software platform: PRESTo processes in real-time three channel acceleration data streams: once the P-waves arrival have been detected, it provides earthquake location and magnitude estimations, and peak ground motion predictions at target sites. PRESTo is currently implemented in real- time at National Institute for Earth Physics, Bucharest for several months in parallel with a secondary EEWS. The alert notification is issued only when both systems validate each other. Here we present the results obtained using offline earthquakes originating from Vrancea area together with several real

  20. RED Alert – Early warning or detection of global re-emerging infectious disease (RED)

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Deshpande, Alina

    This is the PDF of a presentation for a webinar given by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) on the early warning or detection of global re-emerging infectious disease (RED). First, there is an overview of LANL biosurveillance tools. Then, information is given about RED Alert. Next, a demonstration is given of a component prototype. RED Alert is an analysis tool that can provide early warning or detection of the re-emergence of an infectious disease at the global level, but through a local lens.

  1. Flexible Early Warning Systems with Workflows and Decision Tables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riedel, F.; Chaves, F.; Zeiner, H.

    2012-04-01

    An essential part of early warning systems and systems for crisis management are decision support systems that facilitate communication and collaboration. Often official policies specify how different organizations collaborate and what information is communicated to whom. For early warning systems it is crucial that information is exchanged dynamically in a timely manner and all participants get exactly the information they need to fulfil their role in the crisis management process. Information technology obviously lends itself to automate parts of the process. We have experienced however that in current operational systems the information logistics processes are hard-coded, even though they are subject to change. In addition, systems are tailored to the policies and requirements of a certain organization and changes can require major software refactoring. We seek to develop a system that can be deployed and adapted to multiple organizations with different dynamic runtime policies. A major requirement for such a system is that changes can be applied locally without affecting larger parts of the system. In addition to the flexibility regarding changes in policies and processes, the system needs to be able to evolve; when new information sources become available, it should be possible to integrate and use these in the decision process. In general, this kind of flexibility comes with a significant increase in complexity. This implies that only IT professionals can maintain a system that can be reconfigured and adapted; end-users are unable to utilise the provided flexibility. In the business world similar problems arise and previous work suggested using business process management systems (BPMS) or workflow management systems (WfMS) to guide and automate early warning processes or crisis management plans. However, the usability and flexibility of current WfMS are limited, because current notations and user interfaces are still not suitable for end-users, and workflows

  2. Coronal Mass Ejection early-warning mission by solar-photon sailcraft

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vulpetti, Giovanni; Circi, Christian; Pino, Tommaso

    2017-11-01

    A preliminary investigation of the early warning of solar storms caused by Coronal Mass Ejection has been carried out. A long warning time could be obtained with a sailcraft synchronous with the Earth-Moon barycenter, and stationed well below the L1 point. In this paper, the theory of heliocentric synchronous sailcraft is set up, its perturbed orbit is analyzed, and a potential solution capable of providing an annual synchrony is carried out. A simple analysis of the response from a low-mass electrochromic actuator for the realization of station-keeping attitude maneuvers is put forwards, and an example of propellantless re-orientation maneuver is studied.

  3. Pregnancy physiology pattern prediction study (4P study): protocol of an observational cohort study collecting vital sign information to inform the development of an accurate centile-based obstetric early warning score.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Fiona; Kemp, Jude; Edwards, Clare; Pullon, Rebecca M; Loerup, Lise; Triantafyllidis, Andreas; Salvi, Dario; Gibson, Oliver; Gerry, Stephen; MacKillop, Lucy H; Tarassenko, Lionel; Watkinson, Peter J

    2017-09-01

    Successive confidential enquiries into maternal deaths in the UK have identified an urgent need to develop a national early warning score (EWS) specifically for pregnant or recently pregnant women to aid more timely recognition, referral and treatment of women who are developing life-threatening complications in pregnancy or the puerperium. Although many local EWS are in use in obstetrics, most have been developed heuristically. No current obstetric EWS has defined the thresholds at which an alert should be triggered using evidence-based normal ranges, nor do they reflect the changing physiology that occurs with gestation during pregnancy. An observational cohort study involving 1000 participants across three UK sites in Oxford, London and Newcastle. Pregnant women will be recruited at approximately 14 weeks' gestation and have their vital signs (heart rate, blood pressure, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation and temperature) measured at 4 to 6-week intervals during pregnancy. Vital signs recorded during labour and delivery will be extracted from hospital records. After delivery, participants will measure and record their own vital signs daily for 2 weeks. During the antenatal and postnatal periods, vital signs will be recorded on an Android tablet computer through a custom software application and transferred via mobile internet connection to a secure database. The data collected will be used to define reference ranges of vital signs across normal pregnancy, labour and the immediate postnatal period. This will inform the design of an evidence-based obstetric EWS. The study has been approved by the NRES committee South East Coast-Brighton and Sussex (14/LO/1312) and is registered with the ISRCTN (10838017). All participants will provide written informed consent and can withdraw from the study at any point. All data collected will be managed anonymously. The findings will be disseminated in international peer-reviewed journals and through research conferences.

  4. Early-warning signals for an outbreak of the influenza pandemic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Di; Gao, Jie

    2011-12-01

    Over the course of human history, influenza pandemics have been seen as major disasters, so studies on the influenza virus have become an important issue for many experts and scholars. Comprehensive research has been performed over the years on the biological properties, chemical characteristics, external environmental factors and other aspects of the virus, and some results have been achieved. Based on the chaos game representation walk model, this paper uses the time series analysis method to study the DNA sequences of the influenza virus from 1913 to 2010, and works out the early-warning signals indicator value for the outbreak of an influenza pandemic. The variances in the CGR walk sequences for the pandemic years (or + -1 to 2 years) are significantly higher than those for the adjacent years, while those in the non-pandemic years are usually smaller. In this way we can provide an influenza early-warning mechanism so that people can take precautions and be well prepared prior to a pandemic.

  5. [Evaluation and analysis of monitoring and early warning functions of the occupational disease reporting system in China].

    PubMed

    Zhu, Xiaojun; Li, Tao; Liu, Mengxuan

    2015-06-01

    To evaluate the monitoring and early warning functions of the occupational disease reporting system right now in China, and to analyze their influencing factors. An improved audit tool (ODIT) was used to score the monitoring and early warning functions with a total score of 10. The nine indices were completeness of information on the reporting form, coverage of the reporting system, accessibility of criteria or guidelines for diagnosis, education and training for physicians, completeness of the reporting system, statistical methods, investigation of special cases, release of monitoring information, and release of early warning information. According to the evaluation, the occupational disease reporting system in China had a score of 5.5 in monitoring existing occupational diseases with a low score for release of monitoring information; the reporting system had a score of 6.5 in early warning of newly occurring occupational diseases with low scores for education and training for physicians as well as completeness of the reporting system. The occupational disease reporting system in China still does not have full function in monitoring and early warning. It is the education and participation of physicians from general hospitals in the diagnosis and treatment of occupational diseases and suspected occupational diseases that need to be enhanced. In addition, the problem of monitoring the incidence of occupational diseases needs to be solved as soon as possible.

  6. Symptoms and Warning Signs

    MedlinePlus

    ... Signs Past Issues / Spring 2008 Table of Contents Anorexia Nervosa emaciation (extremely thin from lack of nutrition) relentless ... from diuretic abuse severe dehydration from purging Binge Eating Disorder frequently eating large amounts of food (binge-eating) ...

  7. Feasibility of Using Elastic Wave Velocity Monitoring for Early Warning of Rainfall-Induced Slope Failure.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yulong; Irfan, Muhammad; Uchimura, Taro; Zhang, Ke

    2018-03-27

    Rainfall-induced landslides are one of the most widespread slope instability phenomena posing a serious risk to public safety worldwide so that their temporal prediction is of great interest to establish effective warning systems. The objective of this study is to determine the effectiveness of elastic wave velocities in the surface layer of the slope in monitoring, prediction and early warning of landslide. The small-scale fixed and varied, and large-scale slope model tests were conducted. Analysis of the results has established that the elastic wave velocity continuously decreases in response of moisture content and deformation and there was a distinct surge in the decrease rate of wave velocity when failure was initiated. Based on the preliminary results of this analysis, the method using the change in elastic wave velocity proves superior for landslide early warning and suggests that a warning be issued at switch of wave velocity decrease rate.

  8. An early warning system for marine storm hazard mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vousdoukas, M. I.; Almeida, L. P.; Pacheco, A.; Ferreira, O.

    2012-04-01

    The present contribution presents efforts towards the development of an operational Early Warning System for storm hazard prediction and mitigation. The system consists of a calibrated nested-model train which consists of specially calibrated Wave Watch III, SWAN and XBeach models. The numerical simulations provide daily forecasts of the hydrodynamic conditions, morphological change and overtopping risk at the area of interest. The model predictions are processed by a 'translation' module which is based on site-specific Storm Impact Indicators (SIIs) (Ciavola et al., 2011, Storm impacts along European coastlines. Part 2: lessons learned from the MICORE project, Environmental Science & Policy, Vol 14), and warnings are issued when pre-defined threshold values are exceeded. For the present site the selected SIIs were (i) the maximum wave run-up height during the simulations; and (ii) the dune-foot horizontal retreat at the end of the simulations. Both SIIs and pre-defined thresholds were carefully selected on the grounds of existing experience and field data. Four risk levels were considered, each associated with an intervention approach, recommended to the responsible coastal protection authority. Regular updating of the topography/bathymetry is critical for the performance of the storm impact forecasting, especially when there are significant morphological changes. The system can be extended to other critical problems, like implications of global warming and adaptive management strategies, while the approach presently followed, from model calibration to the early warning system for storm hazard mitigation, can be applied to other sites worldwide, with minor adaptations.

  9. Earthquake Early Warning: New Strategies for Seismic Hardware

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allardice, S.; Hill, P.

    2017-12-01

    Implementing Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) triggering algorithms into seismic networks has been a hot topic of discussion for some years now. With digitizer technology now available, such as the Güralp Minimus, with on average 40-60ms delay time (latency) from earthquake origin to issuing an alert the next step is to provide network operators with a simple interface for on board parameter calculations from a seismic station. A voting mechanism is implemented on board which mitigates the risk of false positives being communicated. Each Minimus can be configured to with a `score' from various sources i.e. Z channel on seismometer, N/S E/W channels on accelerometer and MEMS inside Minimus. If the score exceeds the set threshold then an alert is sent to the `Master Minimus'. The Master Minimus within the network will also be configured as to when the alert should be issued i.e. at least 3 stations must have triggered. Industry standard algorithms focus around the calculation of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), Peak Ground Velocity (PGV), Peak Ground Displacement (PGD) and C. Calculating these single station parameters on-board in order to stream only the results could help network operators with possible issues, such as restricted bandwidth. Developments on the Minimus allow these parameters to be calculated and distributed through Common Alert Protocol (CAP). CAP is the XML based data format used for exchanging and describing public warnings and emergencies. Whenever the trigger conditions are met the Minimus can send a signed UDP packet to the configured CAP receiver which can then send the alert via SMS, e-mail or CAP forwarding. Increasing network redundancy is also a consideration when developing these features, therefore the forwarding CAP message can be sent to multiple destinations. This allows for a hierarchical approach by which the single station (or network) parameters can be streamed to another Minimus, or data centre, or both, so that there is no

  10. Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with Near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products included in the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spruce, J.; Hargrove, W. W.; Gasser, J.; Norman, S. P.

    2013-12-01

    Forest threats across the US have become increasingly evident in recent years. These include regionally extensive disturbances (e.g., from drought, bark beetle outbreaks, and wildfires) that can occur across multiyear durations and result in extensive forest mortality. In addition, forests can be subject to ephemeral, sometimes yearly defoliation from various insects and types of storm damage. After prolonged severe disturbance, signs of forest recovery can vary in terms of satellite-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values. The increased extent and threat of forest disturbances in part led to the enactment of the 2003 Healthy Forest Restoration Act, which mandated that a national forest threat Early Warning System (EWS) be deployed. In response, the US Forest Service collaborated with NASA, DOE Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the USGS Eros Data Center to build the near real time ForWarn forest threat EWS for monitoring regionally evident forest disturbances, starting on-line operations in 2010. Given the diversity of disturbance types, severities, and durations, ForWarn employs multiple historical baselines used with current NDVI to derive a suite of six nationwide 'weekly' forest change products. ForWarn uses daily 232 meter MODIS Aqua and Terra satellite NDVI data, including MOD13 products for deriving historical baseline NDVIs and eMODIS products for compiling current NDVI. Separately pre-processing the current and historical NDVIs, the Time Series Product Tool and the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool are used to temporally reduce noise, fuse, and aggregate MODIS NDVIs into 24 day composites refreshed every 8 days with 46 dates of forest change products per year. The 24 day compositing interval typically enables new disturbances to be detected, while minimizing the frequency of residual atmospheric contamination. ForWarn's three standard forest change products compare current NDVI to that from the previous year, previous 3 years, and

  11. Implementing an Inpatient Social Early Warning System for Child Maltreatment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Atabaki, Armita; Heddaeus, Daniela; Metzner, Franka; Schulz, Holger; Siefert, Sonke; Pawils, Silke

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: The current article describes the process evaluation of a social early warning system (SEWS) for the prevention of child maltreatment in the federal state of Hamburg. This prevention initiative targets expectant mothers and their partners including an initial screening of risk factors for child maltreatment, a subsequent structured…

  12. Enhancing Famine Early Warning Systems with Improved Forecasts, Satellite Observations and Hydrologic Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J.; Thiaw, W. M.; Hoell, A.; Korecha, D.; McNally, A.; Shukla, S.; Arsenault, K. R.; Magadzire, T.; Novella, N.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Robjohn, M.; Pomposi, C.; Galu, G.; Rowland, J.; Budde, M. E.; Landsfeld, M. F.; Harrison, L.; Davenport, F.; Husak, G. J.; Endalkachew, E.

    2017-12-01

    Drought early warning science, in support of famine prevention, is a rapidly advancing field that is helping to save lives and livelihoods. In 2015-2017, a series of extreme droughts afflicted Ethiopia, Southern Africa, Eastern Africa in OND and Eastern Africa in MAM, pushing more than 50 million people into severe food insecurity. Improved drought forecasts and monitoring tools, however, helped motivate and target large and effective humanitarian responses. Here we describe new science being developed by a long-established early warning system - the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). FEWS NET is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. FEWS NET research is advancing rapidly on several fronts, providing better climate forecasts and more effective drought monitoring tools that are being used to support enhanced famine early warning. We explore the philosophy and science underlying these successes, suggesting that a modal view of climate change can support enhanced seasonal prediction. Under this modal perspective, warming of the tropical oceans may interact with natural modes of variability, like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, to enhance Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature gradients during both El Niño and La Niña-like climate states. Using empirical data and climate change simulations, we suggest that a sequence of droughts may commence in northern Ethiopia and Southern Africa with the advent of a moderate-to-strong El Niño, and then continue with La Niña/West Pacific related droughts in equatorial eastern East Africa. Scientifically, we show that a new hybrid statistical-dynamic precipitation forecast system, the FEWS NET Integrated Forecast System (FIFS), based on reformulations of the Global Ensemble Forecast System weather forecasts and National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal climate predictions, can effectively anticipate recent East and Southern African drought events. Using cross-validation, we

  13. Research on Early Warning of Chinese Food Safety Based on Social Physics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Yonghuan; Niu, Wenyuan; Li, Qianqian

    Based on social physics, this paper designs the index system of food safety, builds early warning model of food safety, calculates the degree of food safety, and assesses the state of early warning of 2007 in China. The result shows the degree of food safety is near 0.7 in securer state, belonging to slight emergency. It is much lower in eastern areas of developed regions, belonging to insecure state in the mass. That the food safety is ensured in major grain producing areas, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia and Xinjiang is the prerequisite of realizing the food safety of China. The result also shows four significant indices, grain production capacity, grain circulation order, grain demand and grain supply, which are important indicatio to control food safety.

  14. Feasibility of Using Elastic Wave Velocity Monitoring for Early Warning of Rainfall-Induced Slope Failure

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Yulong; Irfan, Muhammad; Uchimura, Taro; Zhang, Ke

    2018-01-01

    Rainfall-induced landslides are one of the most widespread slope instability phenomena posing a serious risk to public safety worldwide so that their temporal prediction is of great interest to establish effective warning systems. The objective of this study is to determine the effectiveness of elastic wave velocities in the surface layer of the slope in monitoring, prediction and early warning of landslide. The small-scale fixed and varied, and large-scale slope model tests were conducted. Analysis of the results has established that the elastic wave velocity continuously decreases in response of moisture content and deformation and there was a distinct surge in the decrease rate of wave velocity when failure was initiated. Based on the preliminary results of this analysis, the method using the change in elastic wave velocity proves superior for landslide early warning and suggests that a warning be issued at switch of wave velocity decrease rate. PMID:29584699

  15. Early warning of climate tipping points

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lenton, Timothy M.

    2011-07-01

    A climate 'tipping point' occurs when a small change in forcing triggers a strongly nonlinear response in the internal dynamics of part of the climate system, qualitatively changing its future state. Human-induced climate change could push several large-scale 'tipping elements' past a tipping point. Candidates include irreversible melt of the Greenland ice sheet, dieback of the Amazon rainforest and shift of the West African monsoon. Recent assessments give an increased probability of future tipping events, and the corresponding impacts are estimated to be large, making them significant risks. Recent work shows that early warning of an approaching climate tipping point is possible in principle, and could have considerable value in reducing the risk that they pose.

  16. [Application of EARS in early-warning of influenza pandemic in Beijing].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Dai-tao; Yang, Peng; Zhang, Yi; Zhang, Li; Peng, Xiao-min; Shi, Wei-xian; Lu, Gui-lan; Liang, Hui-jie; Liu, Yi-meng; Liu, Min; Wang, Quan-yi

    2012-06-18

    To illustrate the efficiency of cumulative sum (CUSUM) in pre-warning of the influenza peak in Beijing. CUSUM was used to analyze the data of influenza like illness (ILI), and the results of the influenza laboratory surveillance was regarded as the gold standard to judge the approaching of the influenza peak. The surveillance was launched in 421 hospitals in Beijing during the 2009 to 2010 influenza season, while the influenza laboratory surveillance was launched by 7 collaborative laboratories. From Jun. 2009 to Apr. 2010, the average ILI percentage in the 421 hospitals was 2.56%. In the study, 19 262 pharyngeal swab samples were collected from the ILI cases in 11 hospitals and 5 045 of them were tested positive for the influenza virus, with the novel swine-origin influenza A H1N1 virus dominating. After analyzing of the ILI surveillance data with CUSUM, it was found that the ILI surveillance in Beijing could make a satisfactory early warning for the approaching of the influenza peak referring to the gold standard based on the influenza laboratory results. It could give the prediction and early warning for the influenza peak efficiently and precisely, by using CUSUM to analyze the influenza surveillance data of Beijing.

  17. Application of Seismic Array Processing to Tsunami Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    An, C.; Meng, L.

    2015-12-01

    Tsunami wave predictions of the current tsunami warning systems rely on accurate earthquake source inversions of wave height data. They are of limited effectiveness for the near-field areas since the tsunami waves arrive before data are collected. Recent seismic and tsunami disasters have revealed the need for early warning to protect near-source coastal populations. In this work we developed the basis for a tsunami warning system based on rapid earthquake source characterisation through regional seismic array back-projections. We explored rapid earthquake source imaging using onshore dense seismic arrays located at regional distances on the order of 1000 km, which provides faster source images than conventional teleseismic back-projections. We implement this method in a simulated real-time environment, and analysed the 2011 Tohoku earthquake rupture with two clusters of Hi-net stations in Kyushu and Northern Hokkaido, and the 2014 Iquique event with the Earthscope USArray Transportable Array. The results yield reasonable estimates of rupture area, which is approximated by an ellipse and leads to the construction of simple slip models based on empirical scaling of the rupture area, seismic moment and average slip. The slip model is then used as the input of the tsunami simulation package COMCOT to predict the tsunami waves. In the example of the Tohoku event, the earthquake source model can be acquired within 6 minutes from the start of rupture and the simulation of tsunami waves takes less than 2 min, which could facilitate a timely tsunami warning. The predicted arrival time and wave amplitude reasonably fit observations. Based on this method, we propose to develop an automatic warning mechanism that provides rapid near-field warning for areas of high tsunami risk. The initial focus will be Japan, Pacific Northwest and Alaska, where dense seismic networks with the capability of real-time data telemetry and open data accessibility, such as the Japanese HiNet (>800

  18. Highlight on Supernova Early Warning at Daya Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Hanyu

    Providing an early warning of supernova burst neutrinos is of importance in studying both supernova dynamics and neutrino physics. The Daya Bay Reactor Neutrino Experiment, with a unique feature of multiple liquid scintillator detectors, is sensitive to the full energy spectrum of supernova burst electron-antineutrinos. By utilizing 8 Antineutrino Detectors (ADs) in the three different experimental halls which are about 1 km's apart from each other, we obtain a powerful and prompt rejection of muon spallation background than single-detector experiments with the same target volume. A dedicated trigger system embedded in the data acquisition system has been installed to allow the detection of a coincidence of neutrino signals of all ADs via an inverse beta-decay (IBD) within a 10-second window, thus providing a robust early warning of a supernova occurrence within the Milky Way. An 8-AD associated supernova trigger table has been established theoretically to tabulate the 8-AD event counts' coincidence vs. the trigger rate. As a result, a golden trigger threshold, i.e. with a false alarm rate < 1/3-months, can be set as low as 6 candidates among the 8 detectors, leading to a 100% detection probability for all 1987A type supernova bursts at the distance to the Milky Way center and a 96% detection probability to those at the edge of the Milky Way.

  19. Early warning indicators for monitoring the process failure of anaerobic digestion system of food waste.

    PubMed

    Li, Lei; He, Qingming; Wei, Yunmei; He, Qin; Peng, Xuya

    2014-11-01

    To determine reliable state parameters which could be used as early warning indicators of process failure due to the acidification of anaerobic digestion of food waste, three mesophilic anaerobic digesters of food waste with different operation conditions were investigated. Such parameters as gas production, methane content, pH, concentrations of volatile fatty acid (VFA), alkalinity and their combined indicators were evaluated. Results revealed that operation conditions significantly affect the responses of parameters and thus the optimal early warning indicators of each reactor differ from each other. None of the single indicators was universally valid for all the systems. The universally valid indicators should combine several parameters to supply complementary information. A combination of total VFA, the ratio of VFA to total alkalinity (VFA/TA) and the ratio of bicarbonate alkalinity to total alkalinity (BA/TA) can reflect the metabolism of the digesting system and realize rapid and effective early warning. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Theory and Application of Early Warning Systems for High School and Beyond

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carl, Bradley; Richardson, Jed T.; Cheng, Emily; Kim, HeeJin; Meyer, Robert H.

    2013-01-01

    This article describes the development of early warning indicators for high school and beyond in the Milwaukee Public Schools (MPS) by the Value-Added Research Center (VARC) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, working in conjunction with staff from the Division of Research and Evaluation at MPS. Our work in MPS builds on prior early warning…

  1. Changing skewness: an early warning signal of regime shifts in ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Guttal, Vishwesha; Jayaprakash, Ciriyam

    2008-05-01

    Empirical evidence for large-scale abrupt changes in ecosystems such as lakes and vegetation of semi-arid regions is growing. Such changes, called regime shifts, can lead to degradation of ecological services. We study simple ecological models that show a catastrophic transition as a control parameter is varied and propose a novel early warning signal that exploits two ubiquitous features of ecological systems: nonlinearity and large external fluctuations. Either reduced resilience or increased external fluctuations can tip ecosystems to an alternative stable state. It is shown that changes in asymmetry in the distribution of time series data, quantified by changing skewness, is a model-independent and reliable early warning signal for both routes to regime shifts. Furthermore, using model simulations that mimic field measurements and a simple analysis of real data from abrupt climate change in the Sahara, we study the feasibility of skewness calculations using data available from routine monitoring.

  2. CISN ShakeAlert: Using early warnings for earthquakes in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vinci, M.; Hellweg, M.; Jones, L. M.; Khainovski, O.; Schwartz, K.; Lehrer, D.; Allen, R. M.; Neuhauser, D. S.

    2009-12-01

    Educated users who have developed response plans and procedures are just as important for an earthquake early warning (EEW) system as are the algorithms and computers that process the data and produce the warnings. In Japan, for example, the implementation of the EEW system which now provides advanced alerts of ground shaking included intense outreach efforts to both institutional and individual recipients. Alerts are now used in automatic control systems that stop trains, place sensitive equipment in safe mode and isolate hazards while the public takes cover. In California, the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) is now developing and implementing components of a prototype system for EEW, ShakeAlert. As this processing system is developed, we invite a suite of perspective users from critical industries and institutions throughout California to partner with us in developing useful ShakeAlert products and procedures. At the same time, we will support their efforts to determine and implement appropriate responses to an early warning of earthquake shaking. As a first step, in a collaboration with BART, we have developed a basic system allowing BART’s operation center to receive realtime ground shaking information from more than 150 seismic stations operating in the San Francisco Bay Area. BART engineers are implementing a display system for this information. Later phases will include the development of improved response procedures utilizing this information. We plan to continue this collaboration to include more sophisticated information from the prototype CISN ShakeAlert system.

  3. Early Warning System: a juridical notion to be built

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucarelli, A.

    2007-12-01

    Early warning systems (EWS) are becoming effective tools for real time mitigation of the harmful effects arising from widely different hazards, which range from famine to financial crisis, malicious attacks, industrial accidents, natural catastrophes, etc. Early warning of natural catastrophic events allows to implement both alert systems and real time prevention actions for the safety of people and goods exposed to the risk However the effective implementation of early warning methods is hindered by the lack of a specific juridical frame. Under a juridical point of view, in fact, EWS and in general all the activities of prevention need a careful regulation, mainly with regards to responsibility and possible compensation for damage caused by the implemented actions. A preventive alarm, in fact, has an active influence on infrastructures in control of public services which in turn will suffer suspensions or interruptions because of the early warning actions. From here it is necessary to possess accurate normative references related to the typology of structures or infrastructures upon which the activity of readiness acts; the progressive order of suspension of public services; the duration of these suspensions; the corporate bodies or administrations that are competent to assume such decisions; the actors responsible for the consequences of false alarm, missed or delayed alarms; the mechanisms of compensation for damage; the insurance systems; etc In the European Union EWS are often quoted as preventive methods of mitigation of the risk. Nevertheless, a juridical notion of EWS of general use is not available. In fact, EW is a concept that finds application in many different circles, each of which require specific adaptations, and may concern subjects for which the European Union doesn't have exclusive competence as may be the responsibility of the member states to assign the necessary regulations. In so far as the juridical arrangement of the EWS, this must be

  4. Comparison of Swirl Sign and Black Hole Sign in Predicting Early Hematoma Growth in Patients with Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

    PubMed

    Xiong, Xin; Li, Qi; Yang, Wen-Song; Wei, Xiao; Hu, Xi; Wang, Xing-Chen; Zhu, Dan; Li, Rui; Cao, Du; Xie, Peng

    2018-01-29

    BACKGROUND Early hematoma growth is associated with poor outcome in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). The swirl sign (SS) and the black hole sign (BHS) are imaging markers in ICH patients. The aim of this study was to compare the predictive value of these 2 signs for early hematoma growth. MATERIAL AND METHODS ICH patients were screened for the appearance of the 2 signs within 6 h after onset of symptoms. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of the 2 signs in predicting early hematoma growth were assessed. The accuracy of the 2 signs in predicting early hematoma growth was analyzed by receiver-operator analysis. RESULTS A total of 200 patients were enrolled in this study. BHS was found in 30 (15%) patients, and SS was found in 70 (35%) patients. Of the 71 patients with early hematoma growth, BHS was found on initial computed tomography scans in 24 (33.8%) and SS in 33 (46.5%). The sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of BHS for predicting early hematoma growth were 33.8%, 95.3%, 80.0%, and 72.0%, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of SS were 46.5%, 71.3%, 47.0%, and 71.0%, respectively. The area under the curve was 0.646 for BHS and 0.589 for SS (P=0.08). Multivariate logistic regression showed that presence of BHS is an independent predictor of early hematoma growth. CONCLUSIONS The Black hole sign seems to be good predictor for hematoma growth. The presence of swirl sign on admission CT does not independently predict hematoma growth in patients with ICH.

  5. False alarms: How early warning signals falsely predict abrupt sea ice loss

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagner, Till J. W.; Eisenman, Ian

    2016-04-01

    Uncovering universal early warning signals for critical transitions has become a coveted goal in diverse scientific disciplines, ranging from climate science to financial mathematics. There has been a flurry of recent research proposing such signals, with increasing autocorrelation and increasing variance being among the most widely discussed candidates. A number of studies have suggested that increasing autocorrelation alone may suffice to signal an impending transition, although some others have questioned this. Here we consider variance and autocorrelation in the context of sea ice loss in an idealized model of the global climate system. The model features no bifurcation, nor increased rate of retreat, as the ice disappears. Nonetheless, the autocorrelation of summer sea ice area is found to increase in a global warming scenario. The variance, by contrast, decreases. A simple physical mechanism is proposed to explain the occurrence of increasing autocorrelation but not variance when there is no approaching bifurcation. Additionally, a similar mechanism is shown to allow an increase in both indicators with no physically attainable bifurcation. This implies that relying on autocorrelation and variance as early warning signals can raise false alarms in the climate system, warning of "tipping points" that are not actually there.

  6. Potential economic value of drought information to support early warning in Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quiroga, S.; Iglesias, A.; Diz, A.; Garrote, L.

    2012-04-01

    We present a methodology to estimate the economic value of advanced climate information for food production in Africa under climate change scenarios. The results aim to facilitate better choices in water resources management. The methodology includes 4 sequential steps. First two contrasting management strategies (with and without early warning) are defined. Second, the associated impacts of the management actions are estimated by calculating the effect of drought in crop productivity under climate change scenarios. Third, the optimal management option is calculated as a function of the drought information and risk aversion of potential information users. Finally we use these optimal management simulations to compute the economic value of enhanced water allocation rules to support stable food production in Africa. Our results show how a timely response to climate variations can help reduce loses in food production. The proposed framework is developed within the Dewfora project (Early warning and forecasting systems to predict climate related drought vulnerability and risk in Africa) that aims to improve the knowledge on drought forecasting, warning and mitigation, and advance the understanding of climate related vulnerability to drought and to develop a prototype operational forecasting.

  7. Experiences integrating autonomous components and legacy systems into tsunami early warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reißland, S.; Herrnkind, S.; Guenther, M.; Babeyko, A.; Comoglu, M.; Hammitzsch, M.

    2012-04-01

    Fostered by and embedded in the general development of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) the evolution of Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) shows a significant development from seismic-centred to multi-sensor system architectures using additional sensors, e.g. sea level stations for the detection of tsunami waves and GPS stations for the detection of ground displacements. Furthermore, the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources serving near real-time data not only includes sensors but also other components and systems offering services such as the delivery of feasible simulations used for forecasting in an imminent tsunami threat. In the context of the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination has been newly developed and demonstrated. In particular, standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS) have been successfully incorporated. In the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC) new developments are used to extend the existing platform to realise a component-based technology framework for building distributed TEWS. This talk will describe experiences made in GITEWS, DEWS and TRIDEC while integrating legacy stand-alone systems and newly developed special-purpose software components into TEWS using different software adapters and communication strategies to make the systems work together in a corporate infrastructure. The talk will also cover task management and data conversion between the different systems. Practical approaches and software solutions for the integration of sensors, e.g. providing seismic and sea level data, and utilisation of special

  8. Building Better Drought Resilience Through Improved Monitoring and Early Warning: Learning From Stakeholders in Europe, the USA, and Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stahl, K.; Hannaford, J.; Bachmair, S.; Tijdeman, E.; Collins, K.; Svoboda, M.; Knutson, C. L.; Wall, N.; Smith, K. H.; Bernadt, T.; Crossman, N. D.; Overton, I. C.; Barker, L. J.; Acreman, M. C.

    2016-12-01

    With climate projections suggesting that droughts will intensify in many regions in future, improved drought risk management may reduce potential threats to freshwater security across the globe. One aspect that has been called for in this respect is an improvement of the linkage of drought monitoring and early warning, which currently focuses largely on indicators from meteorology and hydrology, to drought impacts on environment and society. However, a survey of existing monitoring and early warning systems globally, that we report on in this contribution, demonstrates that although impacts are being monitored, there is limited work, and certainly little consensus, on how to best achieve this linkage. The Belmont Forum project DrIVER (Drought impacts: Vulnerability thresholds in monitoring and early-warning research) carried out a number of stakeholder workshops in North America, Europe and Australia to elaborate on options for such improvements. A first round of workshops explored current drought management practices among a very diverse range of stakeholders, and their expectations from monitoring and early warning systems (particularly regarding impact characterization). The workshops revealed some disconnects between the indices used in the public early warning systems and those used by local decision-makers, e.g. to trigger drought measures. Follow-up workshops then explored how the links between information at these different scales can be bridged and applied. Impact information plays a key role in this task. This contribution draws on the lessons learned from the transdisciplinary interactions in DrIVER, to enhance the usability of drought monitoring and early-warning systems and other risk management strategies.

  9. Earthquake Early Warning in Japan - Result of recent two years -

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shimoyama, T.; Doi, K.; Kiyomoto, M.; Hoshiba, M.

    2009-12-01

    Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA) started to provide Earthquake Early Warning(EEW) to the general public in October 2007. It was followed by provision of EEW to a limited number of users who understand the technical limit of EEW and can utilize it for automatic control from August 2006. Earthquake Early Warning in Japan definitely means information of estimated amplitude and arrival time of a strong ground motion after fault rupture occurred. In other words, the EEW provided by JMA is defined as a forecast of a strong ground motion before the strong motion arrival. EEW of JMA is to enable advance countermeasures to disasters caused by strong ground motions with providing a warning message of anticipating strong ground motion before the S wave arrival. However, due to its very short available time period, there should need some measures and ideas to provide rapidly EEW and utilize it properly. - EEW is issued to general public when the maximum seismic intensity 5 lower (JMA scale) or greater is expected. - EEW message contains origin time, epicentral region name, and names of areas (unit is about 1/3 to 1/4 of one prefecture) where seismic intensity 4 or greater is expected. Expected arrival time is not included because it differs substantially even in one unit area. - EEW is to be broadcast through the broadcasting media(TV, radio and City Administrative Disaster Management Radio), and is delivered to cellular phones through cell broadcast system. For those who would like to know the more precise estimation and smaller earthquake information at their point of their properties, JMA allows designated private companies to provide forecast of strong ground motion, in which the estimation of a seismic intensity as well as arrival time of S-wave are contained, at arbitrary places under the JMA’s technical assurance. From October, 2007 to August, 2009, JMA issued 11 warnings to general public expecting seismic intensity “5 lower” or greater, including M=7.2 inland

  10. Early warning of illegal development for protected areas by integrating cellular automata with neural networks.

    PubMed

    Li, Xia; Lao, Chunhua; Liu, Yilun; Liu, Xiaoping; Chen, Yimin; Li, Shaoying; Ai, Bing; He, Zijian

    2013-11-30

    Ecological security has become a major issue under fast urbanization in China. As the first two cities in this country, Shenzhen and Dongguan issued the ordinance of Eco-designated Line of Control (ELC) to "wire" ecologically important areas for strict protection in 2005 and 2009 respectively. Early warning systems (EWS) are a useful tool for assisting the implementation ELC. In this study, a multi-model approach is proposed for the early warning of illegal development by integrating cellular automata (CA) and artificial neural networks (ANN). The objective is to prevent the ecological risks or catastrophe caused by such development at an early stage. The integrated model is calibrated by using the empirical information from both remote sensing and handheld GPS (global positioning systems). The MAR indicator which is the ratio of missing alarms to all the warnings is proposed for better assessment of the model performance. It is found that the fast urban development has caused significant threats to natural-area protection in the study area. The integration of CA, ANN and GPS provides a powerful tool for describing and predicting illegal development which is in highly non-linear and fragmented forms. The comparison shows that this multi-model approach has much better performances than the single-model approach for the early warning. Compared with the single models of CA and ANN, this integrated multi-model can improve the value of MAR by 65.48% and 5.17% respectively. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Pixel color feature enhancement for road signs detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Qieshi; Kamata, Sei-ichiro

    2010-02-01

    Road signs play an important role in our daily life which used to guide drivers to notice variety of road conditions and cautions. They provide important visual information that can help drivers operating their vehicles in a manner for enhancing traffic safety. The occurrence of some accidents can be reduced by using automatic road signs recognition system which can alert the drivers. This research attempts to develop a warning system to alert the drivers to notice the important road signs early enough to refrain road accidents from happening. For solving this, a non-linear weighted color enhancement method by pixels is presented. Due to the advantage of proposed method, different road signs can be detected from videos effectively. With suitably coefficients and operations, the experimental results have proved that the proposed method is robust, accurate and powerful in road signs detection.

  12. Recording signs of deterioration in acute patients: The documentation of vital signs within electronic health records in patients who suffered in-hospital cardiac arrest.

    PubMed

    Stevenson, Jean E; Israelsson, Johan; Nilsson, Gunilla C; Petersson, Göran I; Bath, Peter A

    2016-03-01

    Vital sign documentation is crucial to detecting patient deterioration. Little is known about the documentation of vital signs in electronic health records. This study aimed to examine documentation of vital signs in electronic health records. We examined the vital signs documented in the electronic health records of patients who had suffered an in-hospital cardiac arrest and on whom cardiopulmonary resuscitation was attempted between 2007 and 2011 (n = 228), in a 372-bed district general hospital. We assessed the completeness of vital sign data compared to VitalPAC™ Early Warning Score and the location of vital signs within the electronic health records. There was a noticeable lack of completeness of vital signs. Vital signs were fragmented through various sections of the electronic health records. The study identified serious shortfalls in the representation of vital signs in the electronic health records, with consequential threats to patient safety. © The Author(s) 2014.

  13. Early warning system for financially distressed hospitals via data mining application.

    PubMed

    Koyuncugil, Ali Serhan; Ozgulbas, Nermin

    2012-08-01

    The aim of this study is to develop a Financial Early Warning System (FEWS) for hospitals by using data mining. A data mining method, Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detector (CHAID) decision tree algorithm, was used in the study for financial profiling and developing FEWS. The study was conducted in Turkish Ministry of Health's public hospitals which were in financial distress and in need of urgent solutions for financial issues. 839 hospitals were covered and financial data of the year 2008 was obtained from Ministry of Health. As a result of the study, it was determined that 28 hospitals (3.34%) had good financial performance, and 811 hospitals (96.66%) had poor financial performance. According to FEWS, the covered hospitals were categorized into 11 different financial risk profiles, and it was found that 6 variables affected financial risk of hospitals. According to the profiles of hospitals in financial distress, one early warning signal was detected and financial road map was developed for risk mitigation.

  14. The use of early warning scores to recognise and respond to patient deterioration in district nursing.

    PubMed

    Tucker, Guy; Lusher, Adele

    2018-02-02

    This discussion article focuses on the literature surrounding early warning scoring systems and their use in primary care, specifically within district nursing. Patient deterioration is a global concern, associated with high mortality rates and avoidable deaths. Early recognition and response by nursing and other health care staff has been attributed to early warning scoring systems (EWSS) and tools. However, the use of equivalent tools in the community appears to be lacking. This review concludes that there is no consensus over the use of EWSS in district nursing and culture of practice is varied, rather than standardised.

  15. Food Security, Decision Making and the Use of Remote Sensing in Famine Early Warning Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Molly E.

    2008-01-01

    Famine early warning systems use remote sensing in combination with socio-economic and household food economy analysis to provide timely and rigorous information on emerging food security crises. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is the US Agency for International Development's decision support system in 20 African countries, as well as in Guatemala, Haiti and Afghanistan. FEWS NET provides early and actionable policy guidance for the US Government and its humanitarian aid partners. As we move into an era of climate change where weather hazards will become more frequent and severe, understanding how to provide quantitative and actionable scientific information for policy makers using biophysical data is critical for an appropriate and effective response.

  16. Vulnerability analysis for a drought Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Angeluccetti, Irene; Demarchi, Alessandro; Perez, Francesca

    2014-05-01

    Early Warning Systems (EWS) for drought are often based on risk models that do not, or marginally, take into account the vulnerability factor. The multifaceted nature of drought (hydrological, meteorological, and agricultural) is source of coexistence for different ways to measure this phenomenon and its effects. The latter, together with the complexity of impacts generated by this hazard, causes the current underdevelopment of drought EWS compared to other hazards. In Least Developed Countries, where drought events causes the highest numbers of affected people, the importance of correct monitoring and forecasting is considered essential. Existing early warning and monitoring systems for drought produced at different geographic levels, provide only in a few cases an actual spatial model that tries to describe the cause-effect link between where the hazard is detected and where impacts occur. Integrate vulnerability information in such systems would permit to better estimate affected zones and livelihoods, improving the effectiveness of produced hazard-related datasets and maps. In fact, the need of simplification and, in general, of a direct applicability of scientific outputs is still a matter of concern for field experts and early warning products end-users. Even if the surplus of hazard related information produced right after catastrophic events has, in some cases, led to the creation of specific data-sharing platforms, the conveyed meaning and usefulness of each product has not yet been addressed. The present work is an attempt to fill this gap which is still an open issue for the scientific community as well as for the humanitarian aid world. The study aims at conceiving a simplified vulnerability model to embed into an existing EWS for drought, which is based on the monitoring of vegetation phenological parameters and the Standardized Precipitation Index, both produced using free satellite derived datasets. The proposed vulnerability model includes (i) a

  17. The value of vital sign trends for detecting clinical deterioration on the wards

    PubMed Central

    Churpek, Matthew M; Adhikari, Richa; Edelson, Dana P

    2016-01-01

    Aim Early detection of clinical deterioration on the wards may improve outcomes, and most early warning scores only utilize a patient’s current vital signs. The added value of vital sign trends over time is poorly characterized. We investigated whether adding trends improves accuracy and which methods are optimal for modelling trends. Methods Patients admitted to five hospitals over a five-year period were included in this observational cohort study, with 60% of the data used for model derivation and 40% for validation. Vital signs were utilized to predict the combined outcome of cardiac arrest, intensive care unit transfer, and death. The accuracy of models utilizing both the current value and different trend methods were compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results A total of 269,999 patient admissions were included, which resulted in 16,452 outcomes. Overall, trends increased accuracy compared to a model containing only current vital signs (AUC 0.78 vs. 0.74; p<0.001). The methods that resulted in the greatest average increase in accuracy were the vital sign slope (AUC improvement 0.013) and minimum value (AUC improvement 0.012), while the change from the previous value resulted in an average worsening of the AUC (change in AUC −0.002). The AUC increased most for systolic blood pressure when trends were added (AUC improvement 0.05). Conclusion Vital sign trends increased the accuracy of models designed to detect critical illness on the wards. Our findings have important implications for clinicians at the bedside and for the development of early warning scores. PMID:26898412

  18. The value of vital sign trends for detecting clinical deterioration on the wards.

    PubMed

    Churpek, Matthew M; Adhikari, Richa; Edelson, Dana P

    2016-05-01

    Early detection of clinical deterioration on the wards may improve outcomes, and most early warning scores only utilize a patient's current vital signs. The added value of vital sign trends over time is poorly characterized. We investigated whether adding trends improves accuracy and which methods are optimal for modelling trends. Patients admitted to five hospitals over a five-year period were included in this observational cohort study, with 60% of the data used for model derivation and 40% for validation. Vital signs were utilized to predict the combined outcome of cardiac arrest, intensive care unit transfer, and death. The accuracy of models utilizing both the current value and different trend methods were compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). A total of 269,999 patient admissions were included, which resulted in 16,452 outcomes. Overall, trends increased accuracy compared to a model containing only current vital signs (AUC 0.78 vs. 0.74; p<0.001). The methods that resulted in the greatest average increase in accuracy were the vital sign slope (AUC improvement 0.013) and minimum value (AUC improvement 0.012), while the change from the previous value resulted in an average worsening of the AUC (change in AUC -0.002). The AUC increased most for systolic blood pressure when trends were added (AUC improvement 0.05). Vital sign trends increased the accuracy of models designed to detect critical illness on the wards. Our findings have important implications for clinicians at the bedside and for the development of early warning scores. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Regional early flood warning system: design and implementation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, L. C.; Yang, S. N.; Kuo, C. L.; Wang, Y. F.

    2017-12-01

    This study proposes a prototype of the regional early flood inundation warning system in Tainan City, Taiwan. The AI technology is used to forecast multi-step-ahead regional flood inundation maps during storm events. The computing time is only few seconds that leads to real-time regional flood inundation forecasting. A database is built to organize data and information for building real-time forecasting models, maintaining the relations of forecasted points, and displaying forecasted results, while real-time data acquisition is another key task where the model requires immediately accessing rain gauge information to provide forecast services. All programs related database are constructed in Microsoft SQL Server by using Visual C# to extracting real-time hydrological data, managing data, storing the forecasted data and providing the information to the visual map-based display. The regional early flood inundation warning system use the up-to-date Web technologies driven by the database and real-time data acquisition to display the on-line forecasting flood inundation depths in the study area. The friendly interface includes on-line sequentially showing inundation area by Google Map, maximum inundation depth and its location, and providing KMZ file download of the results which can be watched on Google Earth. The developed system can provide all the relevant information and on-line forecast results that helps city authorities to make decisions during typhoon events and make actions to mitigate the losses.

  20. Study of Water Pollution Early Warning Framework Based on Internet of Things

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chengfang, H.; Xiao, X.; Dingtao, S.; Bo, C.; Xiongfei, W.

    2016-06-01

    In recent years, with the increasing world environmental pollution happening, sudden water pollution incident has become more and more frequently in China. It has posed a serious threat to water safety of the people living in the water source area. Conventional water pollution monitoring method is manual periodic testing, it maybe miss the best time to find that pollution incident. This paper proposes a water pollution warning framework to change this state. On the basis of the Internet of things, we uses automatic water quality monitoring technology to realize monitoring. We calculate the monitoring data with water pollution model to judge whether the water pollution incident is happen or not. Water pollution warning framework is divided into three layers: terminal as the sensing layer, it with the deployment of the automatic water quality pollution monitoring sensor. The middle layer is the transfer network layer, data information implementation is based on GPRS wireless network transmission. The upper one is the application layer. With these application systems, early warning information of water pollution will realize the high-speed transmission between grassroots units and superior units. The paper finally gives an example that applying this pollution warning framework to water quality monitoring of Beijing, China, it greatly improves the speed of the pollution warning responding of Beijing.

  1. Design and internal validation of an obstetric early warning score: secondary analysis of the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre Case Mix Programme database.

    PubMed

    Carle, C; Alexander, P; Columb, M; Johal, J

    2013-04-01

    We designed and internally validated an aggregate weighted early warning scoring system specific to the obstetric population that has the potential for use in the ward environment. Direct obstetric admissions from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre's Case Mix Programme Database were randomly allocated to model development (n = 2240) or validation (n = 2200) sets. Physiological variables collected during the first 24 h of critical care admission were analysed. Logistic regression analysis for mortality in the model development set was initially used to create a statistically based early warning score. The statistical score was then modified to create a clinically acceptable early warning score. Important features of this clinical obstetric early warning score are that the variables are weighted according to their statistical importance, a surrogate for the FI O2 /Pa O2 relationship is included, conscious level is assessed using a simplified alert/not alert variable, and the score, trigger thresholds and response are consistent with the new non-obstetric National Early Warning Score system. The statistical and clinical early warning scores were internally validated using the validation set. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.995 (95% CI 0.992-0.998) for the statistical score and 0.957 (95% CI 0.923-0.991) for the clinical score. Pre-existing empirically designed early warning scores were also validated in the same way for comparison. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.955 (95% CI 0.922-0.988) for Swanton et al.'s Modified Early Obstetric Warning System, 0.937 (95% CI 0.884-0.991) for the obstetric early warning score suggested in the 2003-2005 Report on Confidential Enquiries into Maternal Deaths in the UK, and 0.973 (95% CI 0.957-0.989) for the non-obstetric National Early Warning Score. This highlights that the new clinical obstetric early warning score has an excellent ability to

  2. Research and application of a novel hybrid air quality early-warning system: A case study in China.

    PubMed

    Li, Chen; Zhu, Zhijie

    2018-06-01

    As one of the most serious meteorological disasters in modern society, air pollution has received extensive attention from both citizens and decision-makers. With the complexity of pollution components and the uncertainty of prediction, it is both critical and challenging to construct an effective and practical early-warning system. In this paper, a novel hybrid air quality early-warning system for pollution contaminant monitoring and analysis was proposed. To improve the efficiency of the system, an advanced attribute selection method based on fuzzy evaluation and rough set theory was developed to select the main pollution contaminants for cities. Moreover, a hybrid model composed of the theory of "decomposition and ensemble", an extreme learning machine and an advanced heuristic algorithm was developed for pollution contaminant prediction; it provides deterministic and interval forecasting for tackling the uncertainty of future air quality. Daily pollution contaminants of six major cities in China were selected as a dataset to evaluate the practicality and effectiveness of the developed air quality early-warning system. The superior experimental performance determined by the values of several error indexes illustrated that the proposed early-warning system was of great effectiveness and efficiency. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Looming auditory collision warnings for driving.

    PubMed

    Gray, Rob

    2011-02-01

    A driving simulator was used to compare the effectiveness of increasing intensity (looming) auditory warning signals with other types of auditory warnings. Auditory warnings have been shown to speed driver reaction time in rear-end collision situations; however, it is not clear which type of signal is the most effective. Although verbal and symbolic (e.g., a car horn) warnings have faster response times than abstract warnings, they often lead to more response errors. Participants (N=20) experienced four nonlooming auditory warnings (constant intensity, pulsed, ramped, and car horn), three looming auditory warnings ("veridical," "early," and "late"), and a no-warning condition. In 80% of the trials, warnings were activated when a critical response was required, and in 20% of the trials, the warnings were false alarms. For the early (late) looming warnings, the rate of change of intensity signaled a time to collision (TTC) that was shorter (longer) than the actual TTC. Veridical looming and car horn warnings had significantly faster brake reaction times (BRT) compared with the other nonlooming warnings (by 80 to 160 ms). However, the number of braking responses in false alarm conditions was significantly greater for the car horn. BRT increased significantly and systematically as the TTC signaled by the looming warning was changed from early to veridical to late. Looming auditory warnings produce the best combination of response speed and accuracy. The results indicate that looming auditory warnings can be used to effectively warn a driver about an impending collision.

  4. Performance analysis of landslide early warning systems at regional scale: the EDuMaP method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piciullo, Luca; Calvello, Michele

    2016-04-01

    Landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) reduce landslide risk by disseminating timely and meaningful warnings when the level of risk is judged intolerably high. Two categories of LEWSs, can be defined on the basis of their scale of analysis: "local" systems and "regional" systems. LEWSs at regional scale (ReLEWSs) are used to assess the probability of occurrence of landslides over appropriately-defined homogeneous warning zones of relevant extension, typically through the prediction and monitoring of meteorological variables, in order to give generalized warnings to the public. Despite many studies on ReLEWSs, no standard requirements exist for assessing their performance. Empirical evaluations are often carried out by simply analysing the time frames during which significant high-consequence landslides occurred in the test area. Alternatively, the performance evaluation is based on 2x2 contingency tables computed for the joint frequency distribution of landslides and alerts, both considered as dichotomous variables. In all these cases, model performance is assessed neglecting some important aspects which are peculiar to ReLEWSs, among which: the possible occurrence of multiple landslides in the warning zone; the duration of the warnings in relation to the time of occurrence of the landslides; the level of the warning issued in relation to the landslide spatial density in the warning zone; the relative importance system managers attribute to different types of errors. An original approach, called EDuMaP method, is proposed to assess the performance of landslide early warning models operating at regional scale. The method is composed by three main phases: Events analysis, Duration Matrix, Performance analysis. The events analysis phase focuses on the definition of landslide (LEs) and warning events (WEs), which are derived from available landslides and warnings databases according to their spatial and temporal characteristics by means of ten input parameters. The

  5. Early warning of footpad dermatitis and hockburn in broiler chicken flocks using optical flow, bodyweight and water consumption.

    PubMed

    Dawkins, M S; Roberts, S J; Cain, R J; Nickson, T; Donnelly, C A

    2017-05-20

    Footpad dermatitis and hockburn are serious welfare and economic issues for the production of broiler (meat) chickens. The authors here describe the use of an inexpensive camera system that monitors the movements of broiler flocks throughout their lives and suggest that it is possible to predict, even in young birds, the cross-sectional prevalence at slaughter of footpad dermatitis and hockburn before external signs are visible. The skew and kurtosis calculated from the authors' camera-based optical flow system had considerably more power to predict these outcomes in the 50 flocks reported here than water consumption, bodyweight or mortality and therefore have the potential to inform improved flock management through giving farmers early warning of welfare issues. Further trials are underway to establish the generality of the results. British Veterinary Association.

  6. Associations between working memory, health literacy, and recall of the signs of stroke among older adults.

    PubMed

    Ganzer, Christine A; Insel, Kathleen C; Ritter, Leslie S

    2012-10-01

    Stroke remains a major cause of mortality and disability among older adults. Although early treatment after stroke is known to reduce both mortality and disability, the first step in seeking early treatment is dependent on the rapid recognition of the signs of stroke. Recall of the signs of stroke may be dependent on factors that exist before the stroke itself. Although it is known that both working memory and health literacy decline with advancing age, these factors have not been thoroughly examined with respect to recall of the signs of stroke. Therefore, the purpose of the current study was to investigate associations between working memory, health literacy, and recall of the signs of stroke among older adults. Community dwelling older adults (≥65 years of age) were recruited from two senior centers. Fifty-six participants meeting inclusion criteria provided demographic and health information and were asked to read a public service brochure listing the five warning signs of stroke. Working memory was then assessed using the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale 3rd Edition Working Memory Index. Health literacy was assessed by the Short Test of Functional Health Literacy in Adults. Participants' recall of the five warning signs of stroke was evaluated. The mean age was 80.4 years. The mean number of the signs of stroke recalled was 2.9 ± 1.33. Working memory and health literacy were positively correlated with recall of the signs of stroke (r = .38, p < 0.01; r = .44, p < 0.01). In a simultaneous regression, only health literacy remained a significant predictor of recall. There was no statistically significant interaction between working memory and health literacy. Findings from this study indicate that working memory and health literacy were associated with successful recall of the warning signs of stroke in older adults. Further studies are needed to determine if programs that include cognitive and literacy assessments could identify older adults who need

  7. Tree rings provide early warning signals of jack pine mortality across a moisture gradient in the southern boreal forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mamet, S. D.; Chun, K. P.; Metsaranta, J. M.; Barr, A. G.; Johnstone, J. F.

    2015-08-01

    Recent declines in productivity and tree survival have been widely observed in boreal forests. We used early warning signals (EWS) in tree ring data to anticipate premature mortality in jack pine (Pinus banksiana)—an extensive and dominant species occurring across the moisture-limited southern boreal forest in North America. We sampled tree rings from 113 living and 84 dead trees in three soil moisture regimes (subxeric, submesic, subhygric) in central Saskatchewan, Canada. We reconstructed annual increments of tree basal area to investigate (1) whether we could detect EWS related to mortality of individual trees, and (2) how water availability and tree growth history may explain the mortality warning signs. EWS were evident as punctuated changes in growth patterns prior to transition to an alternative state of reduced growth before dying. This transition was likely triggered by a combination of severe drought and insect outbreak. Higher moisture availability associated with a soil moisture gradient did not appear to reduce tree sensitivity to stress-induced mortality. Our results suggest tree rings offer considerable potential for detecting critical transitions in tree growth, which are linked to premature mortality.

  8. An integrated earthquake early warning system and its performance at schools in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Bing-Ru; Hsiao, Nai-Chi; Lin, Pei-Yang; Hsu, Ting-Yu; Chen, Chiou-Yun; Huang, Shieh-Kung; Chiang, Hung-Wei

    2017-01-01

    An earthquake early warning (EEW) system with integration of regional and onsite approaches was installed at nine demonstration stations in several districts of Taiwan for taking advantages of both approaches. The system performance was evaluated by a 3-year experiment at schools, which experienced five major earthquakes during this period. The blind zone of warning was effectively reduced by the integrated EEW system. The predicted intensities from EEW demonstration stations showed acceptable accuracy compared to field observations. The operation experience from an earthquake event proved that students could calmly carry out correct action before the seismic wave arrived using some warning time provided by the EEW system. Through successful operation in practice, the integrated EEW system was verified as an effective tool for disaster prevention at schools.

  9. SafeLand guidelines for landslide monitoring and early warning systems in Europe - Design and required technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bazin, S.

    2012-04-01

    Landslide monitoring means the comparison of landslide characteristics like areal extent, speed of movement, surface topography and soil humidity from different periods in order to assess landslide activity. An ultimate "universal" methodology for this purpose does not exist; every technology has its own advantages and disadvantages. End-users should carefully consider each one to select the methodologies that represent the best compromise between pros and cons, and are best suited for their needs. Besides monitoring technology, there are many factors governing the choice of an Early Warning System (EWS). A people-centred EWS necessarily comprises five key elements: (1) knowledge of the risks; (2) identification, monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; (3) operational centre; (4) communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and (5) local capabilities to respond to the warnings received. The expression "end-to-end warning system" is also used to emphasize that EWSs need to span all steps from hazard detection through to community response. The aim of the present work is to provide guidelines for establishing the different components for landslide EWSs. One of the main deliverables of the EC-FP7 SafeLand project addresses the technical and practical issues related to monitoring and early warning for landslides, and identifies the best technologies available in the context of both hazard assessment and design of EWSs. This deliverable targets the end-users and aims to facilitate the decision process by providing guidelines. For the purpose of sharing the globally accumulated expertise, a screening study was done on 14 EWSs from 8 different countries. On these bases, the report presents a synoptic view of existing monitoring methodologies and early-warning strategies and their applicability for different landslide types, scales and risk management steps. Several comprehensive checklists and toolboxes are also included to support informed

  10. Early-warning signals for catastrophic soil degradation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karssenberg, Derek

    2010-05-01

    Many earth systems have critical thresholds at which the system shifts abruptly from one state to another. Such critical transitions have been described, among others, for climate, vegetation, animal populations, and geomorphology. Predicting the timing of critical transitions before they are reached is of importance because of the large impact on nature and society associated with the transition. However, it is notably difficult to predict the timing of a transition. This is because the state variables of the system show little change before the threshold is reached. As a result, the precision of field observations is often too low to provide predictions of the timing of a transition. A possible solution is the use of spatio-temporal patterns in state variables as leading indicators of a transition. It is becoming clear that the critically slowing down of a system causes spatio-temporal autocorrelation and variance to increase before the transition. Thus, spatio-temporal patterns are important candidates for early-warning signals. In this research we will show that these early-warning signals also exist in geomorphological systems. We consider a modelled vegetation-soil system under a gradually increasing grazing pressure causing an abrupt shift towards extensive soil degradation. It is shown that changes in spatio-temporal patterns occur well ahead of this catastrophic transition. A distributed model describing the coupled processes of vegetation growth and geomorphological denudation is adapted. The model uses well-studied simple process representations for vegetation and geomorphology. A logistic growth model calculates vegetation cover as a function of grazing pressure and vegetation growth rate. Evolution of the soil thickness is modelled by soil creep and wash processes, as a function of net rain reaching the surface. The vegetation and soil system are coupled by 1) decreasing vegetation growth with decreasing soil thickness and 2) increasing soil wash with

  11. Technology, conflict early warning systems, public health, and human rights.

    PubMed

    Pham, Phuong N; Vinck, Patrick

    2012-12-15

    Public health and conflict early warning are evolving rapidly in response to technology changes for the gathering, management, analysis and communication of data. It is expected that these changes will provide an unprecedented ability to monitor, detect, and respond to crises. One of the potentially most profound and lasting expected change affects the roles of the various actors in providing and sharing information and in responding to early warning. Communities and civil society actors have the opportunity to be empowered as a source of information, analysis, and response, while the role of traditional actors shifts toward supporting those communities and building resilience. However, by creating new roles, relationships, and responsibilities, technology changes raise major concerns and ethical challenges for practitioners, pressing the need for practical guidelines and actionable recommendations in line with existing ethical principles. Copyright © 2012 Pham and Vinck. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/), which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

  12. An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grover-Kopec, Emily; Kawano, Mika; Klaver, Robert W.; Blumenthal, Benno; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J.

    2005-01-01

    Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response.Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization.The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to previous seasons and climatological

  13. Monitoring of unstable slopes by MEMS tilting sensors and its application to early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Towhata, I.; Uchimura, T.; Seko, I.; Wang, L.

    2015-09-01

    The present paper addresses the newly developed early warning technology that can help mitigate the slope failure disasters during heavy rains. Many studies have been carried out in the recent times on early warning that is based on rainfall records. Although those rainfall criteria of slope failure tells the probability of disaster on a regional scale, it is difficult for them to judge the risk of particular slopes. This is because the rainfall intensity is spatially too variable to forecast and the early warning based on rainfall alone cannot take into account the effects of local geology, hydrology and topography that vary spatially as well. In this regard, the authors developed an alternative technology in which the slope displacement/deformation is monitored and early warning is issued when a new criterion is satisfied. The new MEMS-based sensor monitors the tilting angle of an instrument that is embedded at a very shallow depth and the record of the tilting angle corresponds to the lateral displacement at the slope surface. Thus, the rate of tilting angle that exceeds a new criterion value implies an imminent slope failure. This technology has been validated against several events of slope failures as well as against a field rainfall test. Those validations have made it possible to determine the criterion value of the rate of tilting angle to be 0.1 degree/hour. The advantage of the MEMS tilting sensor lies in its low cost. Hence, it is possible to install many low-cost sensors over a suspected slope in which the precise range of what is going to fall down during the next rainfall is unknown. In addition to the past validations, this paper also introduces a recent application to a failed slope in the Izu Oshima Island where a heavy rainfall-induced slope failure occurred in October, 2013.

  14. GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schöne, T.; Pandoe, W.; Mudita, I.; Roemer, S.; Illigner, J.; Zech, C.; Galas, R.

    2011-03-01

    On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements. The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) (Rudloff et al., 2009) combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP) measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information. The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

  15. Informativeness of Early Huntington Disease Signs about Gene Status.

    PubMed

    Oster, Emily; Eberly, Shirley W; Dorsey, E Ray; Kayson-Rubin, Elise; Oakes, David; Shoulson, Ira

    2015-01-01

    The cohort-level risk of Huntington disease (HD) is related to the age and symptom level of the cohort, but this relationship has not been made precise. To predict the evolving likelihood of carrying the Huntington disease (HD) gene for at-risk adults using age and sign level. Using data from adults with early signs and symptoms of HD linked to information on genetic status, we use Bayes' theorem to calculate the probability that an undiagnosed individual of a certain age and sign level has an expanded CAG repeat. Both age and sign levels have substantial influence on the likelihood of HD onset, and the probability of eventual diagnosis changes as those at risk age and exhibit (or fail to exhibit) symptoms. For example, our data suggest that in a cohort of individuals age 26 with a Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale (UHDRS) motor score of 7-10 70% of them will carry the HD mutation. For individuals age 56, the same motor score suggests only a 40% chance of carrying the mutation. Early motor signs of HD, overall and the chorea subscore, were highly predictive of disease onset at any age. However, body mass index (BMI) and cognitive performance scores were not as highly predictive. These results suggest that if researchers or clinicians are looking for early clues of HD, it may be more foretelling to look at motor rather than cognitive signs. Application of similar approaches could be used with other adult-onset genetic conditions.

  16. Integrated Land- and Underwater-Based Sensors for a Subduction Zone Earthquake Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pirenne, B.; Rosenberger, A.; Rogers, G. C.; Henton, J.; Lu, Y.; Moore, T.

    2016-12-01

    Ocean Networks Canada (ONC — oceannetworks.ca/ ) operates cabled ocean observatories off the coast of British Columbia (BC) to support research and operational oceanography. Recently, ONC has been funded by the Province of BC to deliver an earthquake early warning (EEW) system that integrates offshore and land-based sensors to deliver alerts of incoming ground shaking from the Cascadia Subduction Zone. ONC's cabled seismic network has the unique advantage of being located offshore on either side of the surface expression of the subduction zone. The proximity of ONC's sensors to the fault can result in faster, more effective warnings, which translates into more lives saved, injuries avoided and more ability for mitigative actions to take place.ONC delivers near real-time data from various instrument types simultaneously, providing distinct advantages to seismic monitoring and earthquake early warning. The EEW system consists of a network of sensors, located on the ocean floor and on land, that detect and analyze the initial p-wave of an earthquake as well as the crustal deformation on land during the earthquake sequence. Once the p-wave is detected and characterized, software systems correlate the data streams of the various sensors and deliver alerts to clients through a Common Alerting Protocol-compliant data package. This presentation will focus on the development of the earthquake early warning capacity at ONC. It will describe the seismic sensors and their distribution, the p-wave detection algorithms selected and the overall architecture of the system. It will further overview the plan to achieve operational readiness at project completion.

  17. Early Warning/Track-and-Trigger Systems to Detect Deterioration and Improve Outcomes in Hospitalized Patients.

    PubMed

    Shiloh, Ariel L; Lominadze, George; Gong, Michelle N; Savel, Richard H

    2016-02-01

    As a global effort toward improving patient safety, a specific area of focus has been the early recognition and rapid intervention in deteriorating ward patients. This focus on "failure to rescue" has led to the construction of early warning/track-and-trigger systems. In this review article, we present a description of the data behind the creation and implementation of such systems, including multiple algorithms and strategies for deployment. Additionally, the strengths and weaknesses of the various systems and their evaluation in the literature are emphasized. Despite the limitations of the current literature, the potential benefit of these early warning/track-and-trigger systems to improve patient outcomes remains significant. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  18. The reconnaissance and early-warning optical system design for dual field of space-based "solar blind ultraviolet"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Wen-cong; Jin, Dong-dong; Shao, Fei; Hu, Hui-jun; Shi, Yu-feng; Song, Juan; Zhang, Yu-tu; Yong, Liu

    2016-07-01

    With the development of modern technology, especially the development of information technology at high speed, the ultraviolet early warning system plays an increasingly important role. In the modern warfare, how to detect the threats earlier, prevent and reduce the attack of precision-guided missile has become a new challenge. Because the ultraviolet warning technology has high environmental adaptability, the low false alarm rate, small volume and other advantages, in the military field applications it has been developed rapidly. According to current application demands for solar blind ultraviolet detection and warning, this paper proposes a reconnaissance and early-warning optical system, which covers solar blind ultraviolet (250nm-280nm) and dual field. This structure takes advantage of a narrow field of view and long focal length optical system to achieve the target object detection, uses wide-field and short focal length optical system to achieve early warning of the target object. It makes use of an ultraviolet beam-splitter to achieve the separation of two optical systems. According to the detector and the corresponding application needs of two visual field of the optical system, the calculation and optical system design were completed. After the design, the MTF of the two optical system is more than 0.8@39lp/mm. A single pixel energy concentration is greater than 80%.

  19. Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boulton, Chris A.; Allison, Lesley C.; Lenton, Timothy M.

    2014-12-01

    The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached.

  20. Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model

    PubMed Central

    Boulton, Chris A.; Allison, Lesley C.; Lenton, Timothy M.

    2014-01-01

    The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached. PMID:25482065

  1. Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model.

    PubMed

    Boulton, Chris A; Allison, Lesley C; Lenton, Timothy M

    2014-12-08

    The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached.

  2. Surveillance and early warning systems of infectious disease in China: From 2012 to 2014.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Honglong; Wang, Liping; Lai, Shengjie; Li, Zhongjie; Sun, Qiao; Zhang, Peng

    2017-07-01

    Appropriate surveillance and early warning of infectious diseases have very useful roles in disease control and prevention. In 2004, China established the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System and the Public Health Emergency Event Surveillance System to report disease surveillance and events on the basis of data sources from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System, China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System in this country. This study provided a descriptive summary and a data analysis, from 2012 to 2014, of these 3 key surveillance and early warning systems of infectious disease in China with the intent to provide suggestions for system improvement and perfection. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Development of Smart Grid for Community and Cyber based Landslide Hazard Monitoring and Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karnawati, D.; Wilopo, W.; Fathani, T. F.; Fukuoka, H.; Andayani, B.

    2012-12-01

    A Smart Grid is a cyber-based tool to facilitate a network of sensors for monitoring and communicating the landslide hazard and providing the early warning. The sensor is designed as an electronic sensor installed in the existing monitoring and early warning instruments, and also as the human sensors which comprise selected committed-people at the local community, such as the local surveyor, local observer, member of the local task force for disaster risk reduction, and any person at the local community who has been registered to dedicate their commitments for sending reports related to the landslide symptoms observed at their living environment. This tool is designed to be capable to receive up to thousands of reports/information at the same time through the electronic sensors, text message (mobile phone), the on-line participatory web as well as various social media such as Twitter and Face book. The information that should be recorded/ reported by the sensors is related to the parameters of landslide symptoms, for example the progress of cracks occurrence, ground subsidence or ground deformation. Within 10 minutes, this tool will be able to automatically elaborate and analyse the reported symptoms to predict the landslide hazard and risk levels. The predicted level of hazard/ risk can be sent back to the network of electronic and human sensors as the early warning information. The key parameters indicating the symptoms of landslide hazard were recorded/ monitored by the electrical and the human sensors. Those parameters were identified based on the investigation on geological and geotechnical conditions, supported with the laboratory analysis. The cause and triggering mechanism of landslide in the study area was also analysed in order to define the critical condition to launch the early warning. However, not only the technical but also social system were developed to raise community awareness and commitments to serve the mission as the human sensors, which will

  4. Exploring the feasibility of a nationwide earthquake early warning system in Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Picozzi, M.; Zollo, A.; Brondi, P.; Colombelli, S.; Elia, L.; Martino, C.

    2015-04-01

    When accompanied by appropriate training and preparedness of a population, Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) are effective and viable tools for the real-time reduction of societal exposure to seismic events in metropolitan areas. The Italian Accelerometric Network, RAN, which consists of about 500 stations installed over all the active seismic zones, as well as many cities and strategic infrastructures in Italy, has the potential to serve as a nationwide early warning system. In this work, we present a feasibility study for a nationwide EEWS in Italy obtained by the integration of the RAN and the software platform PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem (PRESTo). The performance of the RAN-PRESTo EEWS is first assessed by testing it on real strong motion recordings of 40 of the largest earthquakes that have occurred during the last 10 years in Italy. Furthermore, we extend the analysis to regions that did not experience earthquakes by considering a nationwide grid of synthetic sources capable of generating Gutenberg-Richter sequences corresponding to the one adopted by the seismic hazard map of the Italian territory. Our results indicate that the RAN-PRESTo EEWS could theoretically provide for higher seismic hazard areas reliable alert messages within about 5 to 10 s and maximum lead times of about 25 s. In case of large events (M > 6.5), this amount of lead time would be sufficient for taking basic protective measures (e.g., duck and cover, move away from windows or equipment) in tens to hundreds of municipalities affected by large ground shaking.

  5. Informing climate change adaptation with insights from famine early warning (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.

    2010-12-01

    Famine early warning systems provide a unique viewpoint for understanding the implications of climate change on food security, identifying the locations and seasons where millions of food insecure people are dependent upon climate-sensitive agricultural systems. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is a decision support system sponsored by the Office of Food for Peace of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which distributes over two billion dollars of food aid to more than 40 countries each year. FEWS NET identifies the times and places where food aid is required by the most climatically sensitive and consequently food insecure populations of the developing world. As result, FEWS NET has developed its own "climate service", implemented by USGS, NOAA, and NASA, to support its decision making processes. The foundation of this climate service is the monitoring of current growing conditions for early identification of agricultural drought that might impact food security. Since station networks are sparse in the countries monitored, FEWS NET has a tradition (dating back to 1985) of reliance on satellite remote sensing of vegetation and rainfall. In the last ten years, climate forecasts have become an additional tool for food security assessment, extending the early warning perspective to include expected agricultural outcomes for the season ahead. More recently, research has expanded to include detailed analyses of recent observed climate trends, combined with diagnostic ocean-atmosphere studies. These studies are then used to develop interpretations of GCM scenarios and their implications for future patterns of precipitation and temperature, revealing trends towards warmer/drier climate conditions and increases in the relative frequency of drought. In some regions, like Eastern Africa, such changes seem to be already occurring, with an associated increase in food insecurity. Sub-national analyses for Kenya, for example, point to the

  6. Relation between stability and resilience determines the performance of early warning signals under different environmental drivers.

    PubMed

    Dai, Lei; Korolev, Kirill S; Gore, Jeff

    2015-08-11

    Shifting patterns of temporal fluctuations have been found to signal critical transitions in a variety of systems, from ecological communities to human physiology. However, failure of these early warning signals in some systems calls for a better understanding of their limitations. In particular, little is known about the generality of early warning signals in different deteriorating environments. In this study, we characterized how multiple environmental drivers influence the dynamics of laboratory yeast populations, which was previously shown to display alternative stable states [Dai et al., Science, 2012]. We observed that both the coefficient of variation and autocorrelation increased before population collapse in two slowly deteriorating environments, one with a rising death rate and the other one with decreasing nutrient availability. We compared the performance of early warning signals across multiple environments as "indicators for loss of resilience." We find that the varying performance is determined by how a system responds to changes in a specific driver, which can be captured by a relation between stability (recovery rate) and resilience (size of the basin of attraction). Furthermore, we demonstrate that the positive correlation between stability and resilience, as the essential assumption of indicators based on critical slowing down, can break down in this system when multiple environmental drivers are changed simultaneously. Our results suggest that the stability-resilience relation needs to be better understood for the application of early warning signals in different scenarios.

  7. Relation between stability and resilience determines the performance of early warning signals under different environmental drivers

    PubMed Central

    Dai, Lei; Korolev, Kirill S.; Gore, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    Shifting patterns of temporal fluctuations have been found to signal critical transitions in a variety of systems, from ecological communities to human physiology. However, failure of these early warning signals in some systems calls for a better understanding of their limitations. In particular, little is known about the generality of early warning signals in different deteriorating environments. In this study, we characterized how multiple environmental drivers influence the dynamics of laboratory yeast populations, which was previously shown to display alternative stable states [Dai et al., Science, 2012]. We observed that both the coefficient of variation and autocorrelation increased before population collapse in two slowly deteriorating environments, one with a rising death rate and the other one with decreasing nutrient availability. We compared the performance of early warning signals across multiple environments as “indicators for loss of resilience.” We find that the varying performance is determined by how a system responds to changes in a specific driver, which can be captured by a relation between stability (recovery rate) and resilience (size of the basin of attraction). Furthermore, we demonstrate that the positive correlation between stability and resilience, as the essential assumption of indicators based on critical slowing down, can break down in this system when multiple environmental drivers are changed simultaneously. Our results suggest that the stability–resilience relation needs to be better understood for the application of early warning signals in different scenarios. PMID:26216946

  8. A Practitioner's Guide to Implementing Early Warning Systems. REL 2015-056

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frazelle, Sarah; Nagel, Aisling

    2015-01-01

    To stem the tide of students dropping out, many schools and districts are turning to early warning systems (EWS) that signal whether a student is at risk of not graduating from high school. While some research exists about establishing these systems, there is little information about the actual implementation strategies that are being used across…

  9. Transportation research synthesis : effectiveness of traffic signs on local roads.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2010-01-01

    There does not appear to be significant credible research demonstrating the outright ineffectiveness of particular : traffic warning signs. The research we identified provides support for opposing points of view: that traffic warning : signs have a m...

  10. Warning Signs of Mental Illnesses

    MedlinePlus

    ... Change Direction initiative is working to change the culture of mental health in America. It encourages people ... signs of emotional suffering and to change the culture around mental health and mental illness. Learn more ...

  11. Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability - Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pozzi, Will; Sheffield, Justin; Stefanski, Robert; Cripe, Douglas; Pulwarty, Roger; Vogt, Jurgen V.; Heim, Richard R., Jr.; Brewer, Michael J.; Svoboda, Mark; Westerhoff, Rogier; hide

    2013-01-01

    Drought has had a significant impact on civilization throughout history in terms of reductions in agricultural productivity, potable water supply, and economic activity, and in extreme cases this has led to famine. Every continent has semiarid areas, which are especially vulnerable to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has noted that average annual river runoff and water availability are projected to decrease by 10 percent-13 percent over some dry and semiarid regions in mid and low latitudes, increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought, along with its associated impacts. The sheer magnitude of the problem demands efforts to reduce vulnerability to drought by moving away from the reactive, crisis management approach of the past toward a more proactive, risk management approach that is centered on reducing vulnerability to drought as much as possible while providing early warning of evolving drought conditions and possible impacts. Many countries, unfortunately, do not have adequate resources to provide early warning, but require outside support to provide the necessary early warning information for risk management. Furthermore, in an interconnected world, the need for information on a global scale is crucial for understanding the prospect of declines in agricultural productivity and associated impacts on food prices, food security, and potential for civil conflict. This paper highlights the recent progress made toward a Global Drought Early Warning Monitoring Framework (GDEWF), an underlying partnership and framework, along with its Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), which is its interoperable information system, and the organizations that have begun working together to make it a reality. The GDEWF aims to improve existing regional and national drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities by adding a global component, facilitating continental monitoring and forecasting (where lacking), and improving these tools at

  12. Integrating real-time subsurface hydrologic monitoring with empirical rainfall thresholds to improve landslide early warning

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mirus, Benjamin B.; Becker, Rachel E.; Baum, Rex L.; Smith, Joel B.

    2018-01-01

    Early warning for rainfall-induced shallow landsliding can help reduce fatalities and economic losses. Although these commonly occurring landslides are typically triggered by subsurface hydrological processes, most early warning criteria rely exclusively on empirical rainfall thresholds and other indirect proxies for subsurface wetness. We explore the utility of explicitly accounting for antecedent wetness by integrating real-time subsurface hydrologic measurements into landslide early warning criteria. Our efforts build on previous progress with rainfall thresholds, monitoring, and numerical modeling along the landslide-prone railway corridor between Everett and Seattle, Washington, USA. We propose a modification to a previously established recent versus antecedent (RA) cumulative rainfall thresholds by replacing the antecedent 15-day rainfall component with an average saturation observed over the same timeframe. We calculate this antecedent saturation with real-time telemetered measurements from five volumetric water content probes installed in the shallow subsurface within a steep vegetated hillslope. Our hybrid rainfall versus saturation (RS) threshold still relies on the same recent 3-day rainfall component as the existing RA thresholds, to facilitate ready integration with quantitative precipitation forecasts. During the 2015–2017 monitoring period, this RS hybrid approach has an increase of true positives and a decrease of false positives and false negatives relative to the previous RA rainfall-only thresholds. We also demonstrate that alternative hybrid threshold formats could be even more accurate, which suggests that further development and testing during future landslide seasons is needed. The positive results confirm that accounting for antecedent wetness conditions with direct subsurface hydrologic measurements can improve thresholds for alert systems and early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landsliding.

  13. An analysis of the early-warning system in emerging markets for reducing the financial crisis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Xiangguang; Song, Xiaozhong

    2009-07-01

    The large number of financial crises in emerging markets over the past ten years has left many observers, both from academia and financial institutions, puzzled by an apparent lack of homogenous causal relations between endogenous economic variables and the bursting of large financial shocks. The frequency of financial crises in the last 20 years can be attributed to the lack of a comprehensive theory of financial regulation to guide policy makers. Existing theories fail to define the range of regulatory models, the causes of regulatory failure, and how to measure and prevent it. Faulty design of regulatory models, and the lack of ongoing performance monitoring incorporating early warning systems, is disrupting economic and social development. The main aim of this article is to propose an early warning system (EWS) which purposes issuing warning signal against the possible financial crisis in the emerging market, and makes the emerging market survived the first wave of the crisis be able to continue their operation in the following years.

  14. Famine Early Warning Systems and Their Use of Satellite Remote Sensing Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Molly E.; Essam, Timothy; Leonard, Kenneth

    2011-01-01

    Famine early warning organizations have experience that has much to contribute to efforts to incorporate climate and weather information into economic and political systems. Food security crises are now caused almost exclusively by problems of food access, not absolute food availability, but the role of monitoring agricultural production both locally and globally remains central. The price of food important to the understanding of food security in any region, but it needs to be understood in the context of local production. Thus remote sensing is still at the center of much food security analysis, along with an examination of markets, trade and economic policies during food security analyses. Technology including satellite remote sensing, earth science models, databases of food production and yield, and modem telecommunication systems contributed to improved food production information. Here we present an econometric approach focused on bringing together satellite remote sensing and market analysis into food security assessment in the context of early warning.

  15. Research on Disaster Early Warning and Disaster Relief Integrated Service System Based on Block Data Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, J.; Zhang, H.; Wang, C.; Tang, D.

    2018-04-01

    With the continuous development of social economy, the interaction between mankind and nature has become increasingly evident. Disastrous global catastrophes have occurred from time to time, causing huge losses to people's lives and property. All governments recognize the importance of the establishment of disaster early warning and release mechanisms, and it is also an urgent issue to improve the comprehensive service level of emergency response and disaster relief. However, disaster early warning and emergency relief information is usually generated by different departments, and the diverse data sources, difficult integration, and limited release speed have always been difficult issues to be solved. Block data is the aggregation of various distributed (point data) and segmentation (data) big data on a specific platform and make them happen continuous polymerization effect, block data theory is a good solution to cross-sectoral, cross-platform Disaster information data sharing and integration problems. This paper attempts to discuss the integrated service mechanism of disaster information aggregation and disaster relief based on block data theory and introduces a location-based integrated service system for disaster early warning and disaster relief.

  16. Early warning systems for the management of chronic heart failure: a systematic literature review of cost-effectiveness models.

    PubMed

    Albuquerque De Almeida, Fernando; Al, Maiwenn; Koymans, Ron; Caliskan, Kadir; Kerstens, Ankie; Severens, Johan L

    2018-04-01

    Describing the general and methodological characteristics of decision-analytical models used in the economic evaluation of early warning systems for the management of chronic heart failure patients and performing a quality assessment of their methodological characteristics is expected to provide concise and useful insight to inform the future development of decision-analytical models in the field of heart failure management. Areas covered: The literature on decision-analytical models for the economic evaluation of early warning systems for the management of chronic heart failure patients was systematically reviewed. Nine electronic databases were searched through the combination of synonyms for heart failure and sensitive filters for cost-effectiveness and early warning systems. Expert commentary: The retrieved models show some variability with regards to their general study characteristics. Overall, they display satisfactory methodological quality, even though some points could be improved, namely on the consideration and discussion of any competing theories regarding model structure and disease progression, identification of key parameters and the use of expert opinion, and uncertainty analyses. A comprehensive definition of early warning systems and further research under this label should be pursued. To improve the transparency of economic evaluation publications, authors should make available detailed technical information regarding the published models.

  17. The GNSS-based component for the new Indonesian tsunami early warning centre provided by GITEWS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Falck, C.; Ramatschi, M.; Bartsch, M.; Merx, A.; Hoeberechts, J.; Rothacher, M.

    2009-04-01

    Introduction Nowadays GNSS technologies are used for a large variety of precise positioning applications. The accuracy can reach the mm level depending on the data analysis methods. GNSS technologies thus offer a high potential to support tsunami early warning systems, e.g., by detection of ground motions due to earthquakes and of tsunami waves on the ocean by GNSS instruments on a buoy. Although GNSS-based precise positioning is a standard method, it is not yet common to apply this technique under tight time constraints and, hence, in the absence of precise satellite orbits and clocks. The new developed GNSS-based component utilises on- and offshore measured GNSS data and is the first system of its kind that was integrated into an operational early warning system. (Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning Centre INATEWS, inaugurated at BMKG, Jakarta on November, 11th 2008) Motivation After the Tsunami event of 26th December 2004 the German government initiated the GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) to develop a tsunami early warning system for Indonesia. The GFZ Potsdam (German Research Centre for Geosciences) as the consortial leader of GITEWS also covers several work packages, most of them related to sensor systems. The geodetic branch (Department 1) of the GFZ was assigned to develop a GNSS-based component. Brief system description The system covers all aspects from sensor stations with new developed hard- and software designs, manufacturing and installation of stations, real-time data transfer issues, a new developed automatic near real-time data processing and a graphical user interface for early warning centre operators including training on the system. GNSS sensors are installed on buoys, at tide gauges and as real-time reference stations (RTR stations), either stand-alone or co-located with seismic sensors. The GNSS data are transmitted to the warning centre where they are processed in a near real-time data processing chain. For

  18. Suicide in pediatrics: epidemiology, risk factors, warning signs and the role of the pediatrician in detecting them.

    PubMed

    Dilillo, Dario; Mauri, Silvia; Mantegazza, Cecilia; Fabiano, Valentina; Mameli, Chiara; Zuccotti, Gian Vincenzo

    2015-07-07

    Epidemiological data suggests suicide is uncommon in childhood but becomes an extremely serious issue among adolescents.Several risk factors have been identified and include the presence of psychiatric illness, a previous suicide attempt, family factors, substance abuse, sexual and physical abuse, disorders in gender identity or bullying. Pediatricians have a primary role in searching for these risk factors, recognizing them and acting synergistically with other specialists to prevent and treat suicidal behavior.Pediatricians should also be able to identify the "warning signs" for suicide since their presence implies a need for immediate action, as attempted suicide may occur in a few hours or days.The use of antidepressant drugs and its association with suicidal risk in pediatric age is another topic of ongoing debate. Food and Drug Administration has recently introduced the so-called "black box" on antidepressants' packages with the aim of gaining attention to the possible risk of suicide among adolescents who are treated with antidepressants, with a warning that the risk of suicide is higher when starting a therapy or while adjusting its dosage.

  19. The effectiveness of physiologically based early warning or track and trigger systems after triage in adult patients presenting to emergency departments: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Wuytack, Francesca; Meskell, Pauline; Conway, Aislinn; McDaid, Fiona; Santesso, Nancy; Hickey, Fergal G; Gillespie, Paddy; Raymakers, Adam J N; Smith, Valerie; Devane, Declan

    2017-12-06

    Changes to physiological parameters precede deterioration of ill patients. Early warning and track and trigger systems (TTS) use routine physiological measurements with pre-specified thresholds to identify deteriorating patients and trigger appropriate and timely escalation of care. Patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) are undiagnosed, undifferentiated and of varying acuity, yet the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of using early warning systems and TTS in this setting is unclear. We aimed to systematically review the evidence on the use, development/validation, clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of physiologically based early warning systems and TTS for the detection of deterioration in adult patients presenting to EDs. We searched for any study design in scientific databases and grey literature resources up to March 2016. Two reviewers independently screened results and conducted quality assessment. One reviewer extracted data with independent verification of 50% by a second reviewer. Only information available in English was included. Due to the heterogeneity of reporting across studies, results were synthesised narratively and in evidence tables. We identified 6397 citations of which 47 studies and 1 clinical trial registration were included. Although early warning systems are increasingly used in EDs, compliance varies. One non-randomised controlled trial found that using an early warning system in the ED may lead to a change in patient management but may not reduce adverse events; however, this is uncertain, considering the very low quality of evidence. Twenty-eight different early warning systems were developed/validated in 36 studies. There is relatively good evidence on the predictive ability of certain early warning systems on mortality and ICU/hospital admission. No health economic data were identified. Early warning systems seem to predict adverse outcomes in adult patients of varying acuity presenting to the ED but there

  20. The impact of Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems on nurses' competence: An integrative literature review and synthesis.

    PubMed

    Jensen, Jørghild Karlotte; Skår, Randi; Tveit, Bodil

    2018-04-01

    To describe, interpret and synthesise the current research findings on the impact of the Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems on nurses' competence in identifying and managing deteriorating patients in general hospital wards. As patient safety initiatives designed to ensure the early identification and management of deteriorating patients, the Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems have broad appeal. However, it is still unclear how these systems impact nurses' competence when these systems are used in general hospital wards. CINAHL, PubMed, Cochrane, EMBASE and Ovid MEDLINE databases were systematically searched for relevant articles. Articles were appraised, a thematic analysis was conducted, and similar and divergent perspectives on emergent themes and subthemes were extracted by a team of researchers. Thirty-six studies met the inclusion criteria. The analysis of findings showed how the Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems impacted three competence areas: (i) Nurses' competence in assessing and caring for patients related to the subthemes: (a) sensing clinical deterioration and (b) the development of skills and knowledge. (ii). Nurses' competence in referring patients, related to the subthemes: (a) deciding whether to summon help and (b) the language and communication lines in the referral process. (ii) Nurses' coping and mastery experiences. The impact of the Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems on nurses' competence in identifying and managing deteriorating patients is beneficial but also somewhat contradictory. A greater understanding of nurses' development of competence when using the Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems will facilitate the design of implementation strategies and the use of these systems to improve practice. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Citizen Science to Support Community-based Flood Early Warning and Resilience Building

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paul, J. D.; Buytaert, W.; Allen, S.; Ballesteros-Cánovas, J. A.; Bhusal, J.; Cieslik, K.; Clark, J.; Dewulf, A.; Dhital, M. R.; Hannah, D. M.; Liu, W.; Nayaval, J. L.; Schiller, A.; Smith, P. J.; Stoffel, M.; Supper, R.

    2017-12-01

    In Disaster Risk Management, an emerging shift has been noted from broad-scale, top-down assessments towards more participatory, community-based, bottom-up approaches. Combined with technologies for robust and low-cost sensor networks, a citizen science approach has recently emerged as a promising direction in the provision of extensive, real-time information for flood early warning systems. Here we present the framework and initial results of a major new international project, Landslide EVO, aimed at increasing local resilience against hydrologically induced disasters in western Nepal by exploiting participatory approaches to knowledge generation and risk governance. We identify three major technological developments that strongly support our approach to flood early warning and resilience building in Nepal. First, distributed sensor networks, participatory monitoring, and citizen science hold great promise in complementing official monitoring networks and remote sensing by generating site-specific information with local buy-in, especially in data-scarce regions. Secondly, the emergence of open source, cloud-based risk analysis platforms supports the construction of a modular, distributed, and potentially decentralised data processing workflow. Finally, linking data analysis platforms to social computer networks and ICT (e.g. mobile phones, tablets) allows tailored interfaces and people-centred decision- and policy-support systems to be built. Our proposition is that maximum impact is created if end-users are involved not only in data collection, but also over the entire project life-cycle, including the analysis and provision of results. In this context, citizen science complements more traditional knowledge generation practices, and also enhances multi-directional information provision, risk management, early-warning systems and local resilience building.

  2. Community participation in tsunami early warning system in Pangandaran town

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hadian, Sapari D.; Khadijah, Ute Lies Siti; Saepudin, Encang; Budiono, Agung; Yuliawati, Ayu Krishna

    2017-07-01

    Disaster-resilient communities are communities capable of anticipating and minimizing destructive forces through adaptation. Disaster is an event very close to the people of Indonesia, especially in the small tourism town of Pangadaran located at West Java, Indonesia. On July 17, 2006, the town was hit by a Mw 7.8 earthquake and tsunami that effected over 300 km of the coastline, where the community suffered losses in which more than 600 people were killed, with run up heights exceeding 20 m. The devastation of the tsunami have made the community more alert and together with the local government and other stakeholder develop an Early Warning System for Tsunami. The study is intended to discover issues on tsunami Early Warning System (EWS), disaster risk reduction measures taken and community participation. The research method used is descriptive and explanatory research. The study describe the Tsunami EWS and community based Disaster Risk Reduction in Pangandaran, the implementation of Tsunami alert/EWS in disaster preparedness and observation of community participation in EWS. Data were gathered by secondary data collection, also primary data through interviews, focus group discussions and field observations. Research resulted in a description of EWS implementation, community participation and recommendation to reduce disaster risk in Pangandaran.

  3. G-FAST Early Warning Potential for Great Earthquakes in Chile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crowell, B.; Schmidt, D. A.; Baker, B. I.; Bodin, P.; Vidale, J. E.

    2016-12-01

    The importance of GNSS-based earthquake early warning for modeling large earthquakes has been studied extensively over the past decade and several such systems are currently under development. In the Pacific Northwest, we have developed the G-FAST GNSS-based earthquake early warning module for eventual inclusion in the US West-Coast wide ShakeAlert system. We have also created a test system that allows us to replay past and synthetic earthquakes to identify problems with both the network architecture and the algorithms. Between 2010 and 2016, there have been seven M > 8 earthquakes across the globe, of which three struck offshore Chile; the 27 February 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, the 1 April 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique, and the 16 September 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel. Subsequent to these events, the Chilean national GNSS network operated by the Centro Sismologico Nacional (http://www.sismologia.cl/) greatly expanded to over 150 continuous GNSS stations, providing the best recordings of great earthquakes with GNSS outside of Japan. Here we report on retrospective G-FAST performance for those three great earthquakes in Chile. We discuss the interplay of location errors, latency, and data completeness with respect to the precision and timing of G-FAST earthquake source alerts as well as the computational demands of the system.

  4. Traffic sign recognition by color segmentation and neural network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Surinwarangkoon, Thongchai; Nitsuwat, Supot; Moore, Elvin J.

    2011-12-01

    An algorithm is proposed for traffic sign detection and identification based on color filtering, color segmentation and neural networks. Traffic signs in Thailand are classified by color into four types: namely, prohibitory signs (red or blue), general warning signs (yellow) and construction area warning signs (amber). A color filtering method is first used to detect traffic signs and classify them by type. Then color segmentation methods adapted for each color type are used to extract inner features, e.g., arrows, bars etc. Finally, neural networks trained to recognize signs in each color type are used to identify any given traffic sign. Experiments show that the algorithm can improve the accuracy of traffic sign detection and recognition for the traffic signs used in Thailand.

  5. Earthquake Early Warning: A Prospective User's Perspective (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishenko, S. P.; Savage, W. U.; Johnson, T.

    2009-12-01

    With more than 25 million people at risk from high hazard faults in California alone, Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) presents a promising public safety and emergency response tool. EEW represents the real-time end of an earthquake information spectrum which also includes near real-time notifications of earthquake location, magnitude, and shaking levels; as well as geographic information system (GIS)-based products for compiling and visually displaying processed earthquake data such as ShakeMap and ShakeCast. Improvements to and increased multi-national implementation of EEW have stimulated interest in how such information products could be used in the future. Lifeline organizations, consisting of utilities and transportation systems, can use both onsite and regional EEW information as part of their risk management and public safety programs. Regional EEW information can provide improved situational awareness to system operators before automatic system protection devices activate, and allow trained personnel to take precautionary measures. On-site EEW is used for earthquake-actuated automatic gas shutoff valves, triggered garage door openers at fire stations, system controls, etc. While there is no public policy framework for preemptive, precautionary electricity or gas service shutdowns by utilities in the United States, gas shut-off devices are being required at the building owner level by some local governments. In the transportation sector, high-speed rail systems have already demonstrated the ‘proof of concept’ for EEW in several countries, and more EEW systems are being installed. Recently the Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART) began collaborating with the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) and others to assess the potential benefits of EEW technology to mass transit operations and emergency response in the San Francisco Bay region. A key issue in this assessment is that significant earthquakes are likely to occur close to or within the BART

  6. Suitability of Open-Ocean Instrumentation for Use in Near-Field Tsunami Early Warning Along Seismically Active Subduction Zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williamson, Amy L.; Newman, Andrew V.

    2018-05-01

    Over the past decade, the number of open-ocean gauges capable of parsing information about a passing tsunami has steadily increased, particularly through national cable networks and international buoyed efforts such as the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART). This information is analyzed to disseminate tsunami warnings to affected regions. However, most current warnings that incorporate tsunami are directed at mid- and far-field localities. In this study, we analyze the region surrounding four seismically active subduction zones, Cascadia, Japan, Chile, and Java, for their potential to facilitate local tsunami early warning using such systems. We assess which locations currently have instrumentation in the right locations for direct tsunami observations with enough time to provide useful warning to the nearest affected coastline—and which are poorly suited for such systems. Our primary findings are that while some regions are ill-suited for this type of early warning, such as the coastlines of Chile, other localities, like Java, Indonesia, could incorporate direct tsunami observations into their hazard forecasts with enough lead time to be effective for coastal community emergency response. We take into account the effect of tsunami propagation with regard to shallow bathymetry on the fore-arc as well as the effect of earthquake source placement. While it is impossible to account for every type of off-shore tsunamigenic event in these locales, this study aims to characterize a typical large tsunamigenic event occurring in the shallow part of the megathrust as a guide in what is feasible with early tsunami warning.

  7. Design Principles for resilient cyber-physical Early Warning Systems - Challenges, Experiences, Design Patterns, and Best Practices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gensch, S.; Wächter, J.; Schnor, B.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning systems (EWS) are safety-critical IT-infrastructures that serve the purpose of potentially saving lives or assets by observing real-world phenomena and issuing timely warning products to authorities and communities. An EWS consists of sensors, communication networks, data centers, simulation platforms, and dissemination channels. The components of this cyber-physical system may all be affected by both natural hazards and malfunctions of components alike. Resilience engineering so far has mostly been applied to safety-critical systems and processes in transportation (aviation, automobile), construction and medicine. Early warning systems need equivalent techniques to compensate for failures, and furthermore means to adapt to changing threats, emerging technology and research findings. We present threats and pitfalls from our experiences with the German and Indonesian tsunami early warning system, as well as architectural, technological and organizational concepts employed that can enhance an EWS' resilience. The current EWS is comprised of a multi-type sensor data upstream part, different processing and analysis engines, a decision support system, and various warning dissemination channels. Each subsystem requires a set of approaches towards ensuring stable functionality across system layer boundaries, including also institutional borders. Not only must services be available, but also produce correct results. Most sensors are distributed components with restricted resources, communication channels and power supply. An example for successful resilience engineering is the power capacity based functional management for buoy and tide gauge stations. We discuss various fault-models like cause and effect models on linear pathways, interaction of multiple events, complex and non-linear interaction of assumedly reliable subsystems and fault tolerance means implemented to tackle these threats.

  8. Early Warning Signals for Abrupt Change Raise False Alarm During Sea Ice Loss

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagner, T. J. W.; Eisenman, I.

    2015-12-01

    Uncovering universal early warning signals for critical transitions has become a coveted goal in diverse scientific disciplines, ranging from climate science to financial mathematics. There has been a flurry of recent research proposing such signals, with increasing autocorrelation and increasing variance being among the most widely discussed candidates. A number of studies have suggested that increasing autocorrelation alone may suffice to signal an impending transition, although some others have questioned this. Here, we consider variance and autocorrelation in the context of sea ice loss in an idealized model of the global climate system. The model features no bifurcation, nor increased rate of retreat, as the ice disappears. Nonetheless, the autocorrelation of summer sea ice area is found to increase with diminishing sea ice cover in a global warming scenario. The variance, by contrast, decreases. A simple physical mechanism is proposed to explain the occurrence of increasing autocorrelation but not variance in the model when there is no approaching bifurcation. Additionally, a similar mechanism is shown to allow an increase in both indicators with no physically attainable bifurcation. This implies that relying on autocorrelation and variance as early warning signals can raise false alarms in the climate system, warning of "tipping points" that are not actually there.

  9. Sign-a-Palooza

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McMorran, Charles; Reynolds, Veronica

    2010-01-01

    A halo of signs, some stuffed into thick plastic sheaths while others curled under yellow tape, cluttered the service desks of the New City Library. They bleated out messages of closings, procedures, and warnings. Their number undermined their cause. All too often a customer would ask a question that was answered by the very sign they had pushed…

  10. Rainfall threshold calculation for debris flow early warning in areas with scarcity of data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, Hua-Li; Jiang, Yuan-Jun; Wang, Jun; Ou, Guo-Qiang

    2018-05-01

    Debris flows are natural disasters that frequently occur in mountainous areas, usually accompanied by serious loss of lives and properties. One of the most commonly used approaches to mitigate the risk associated with debris flows is the implementation of early warning systems based on well-calibrated rainfall thresholds. However, many mountainous areas have little data regarding rainfall and hazards, especially in debris-flow-forming regions. Therefore, the traditional statistical analysis method that determines the empirical relationship between rainstorms and debris flow events cannot be effectively used to calculate reliable rainfall thresholds in these areas. After the severe Wenchuan earthquake, there were plenty of deposits deposited in the gullies, which resulted in several debris flow events. The triggering rainfall threshold has decreased obviously. To get a reliable and accurate rainfall threshold and improve the accuracy of debris flow early warning, this paper developed a quantitative method, which is suitable for debris flow triggering mechanisms in meizoseismal areas, to identify rainfall threshold for debris flow early warning in areas with a scarcity of data based on the initiation mechanism of hydraulic-driven debris flow. First, we studied the characteristics of the study area, including meteorology, hydrology, topography and physical characteristics of the loose solid materials. Then, the rainfall threshold was calculated by the initiation mechanism of the hydraulic debris flow. The comparison with other models and with alternate configurations demonstrates that the proposed rainfall threshold curve is a function of the antecedent precipitation index (API) and 1 h rainfall. To test the proposed method, we selected the Guojuanyan gully, a typical debris flow valley that during the 2008-2013 period experienced several debris flow events, located in the meizoseismal areas of the Wenchuan earthquake, as a case study. The comparison with other

  11. Effect of warning devices on curve operating speeds.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2005-08-01

    The objective of this study is to evaluate the use of several warning signs and warning methods to identify those that have the greatest impact on reducing vehicle speeds when traversing a horizontal curve. Three sites were selected from a list of pr...

  12. Limited sight distance warning for vertical curves

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1984-11-01

    This is a summary of the procedures and findings of a study of highway signs to warn of restricted sight distance due to crest vertical curves. Driver awareness, understanding, and response to the existing LIMITED SIGHT DISTANCE (LSD) sign and severa...

  13. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil.

    PubMed

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio As; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-02-24

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics.

  14. Massachusetts Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS). "Technical Descriptions of Risk Model Development": Middle and High School Age Groupings (Grades 7-12)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2013

    2013-01-01

    The Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (Department) created the grades 1-12 Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS) in response to district interest in the Early Warning Indicator Index (EWII) that the Department previously created for rising grade 9 students. Districts shared that the EWII data were helpful, but also…

  15. Dynamic linear models using the Kalman filter for early detection and early warning of malaria outbreaks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merkord, C. L.; Liu, Y.; DeVos, M.; Wimberly, M. C.

    2015-12-01

    Malaria early detection and early warning systems are important tools for public health decision makers in regions where malaria transmission is seasonal and varies from year to year with fluctuations in rainfall and temperature. Here we present a new data-driven dynamic linear model based on the Kalman filter with time-varying coefficients that are used to identify malaria outbreaks as they occur (early detection) and predict the location and timing of future outbreaks (early warning). We fit linear models of malaria incidence with trend and Fourier form seasonal components using three years of weekly malaria case data from 30 districts in the Amhara Region of Ethiopia. We identified past outbreaks by comparing the modeled prediction envelopes with observed case data. Preliminary results demonstrated the potential for improved accuracy and timeliness over commonly-used methods in which thresholds are based on simpler summary statistics of historical data. Other benefits of the dynamic linear modeling approach include robustness to missing data and the ability to fit models with relatively few years of training data. To predict future outbreaks, we started with the early detection model for each district and added a regression component based on satellite-derived environmental predictor variables including precipitation data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and land surface temperature (LST) and spectral indices from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We included lagged environmental predictors in the regression component of the model, with lags chosen based on cross-correlation of the one-step-ahead forecast errors from the first model. Our results suggest that predictions of future malaria outbreaks can be improved by incorporating lagged environmental predictors.

  16. Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness

    PubMed Central

    Lenton, T. M.; Livina, V. N.; Dakos, V.; Van Nes, E. H.; Scheffer, M.

    2012-01-01

    We address whether robust early warning signals can, in principle, be provided before a climate tipping point is reached, focusing on methods that seek to detect critical slowing down as a precursor of bifurcation. As a test bed, six previously analysed datasets are reconsidered, three palaeoclimate records approaching abrupt transitions at the end of the last ice age and three models of varying complexity forced through a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Approaches based on examining the lag-1 autocorrelation function or on detrended fluctuation analysis are applied together and compared. The effects of aggregating the data, detrending method, sliding window length and filtering bandwidth are examined. Robust indicators of critical slowing down are found prior to the abrupt warming event at the end of the Younger Dryas, but the indicators are less clear prior to the Bølling-Allerød warming, or glacial termination in Antarctica. Early warnings of thermohaline circulation collapse can be masked by inter-annual variability driven by atmospheric dynamics. However, rapidly decaying modes can be successfully filtered out by using a long bandwidth or by aggregating data. The two methods have complementary strengths and weaknesses and we recommend applying them together to improve the robustness of early warnings. PMID:22291229

  17. Early Warning System for reducing disaster risk: the technological platform DEWETRA for the Republic of Serbia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massabo, Marco; Molini, Luca; Kostic, Bojan; Campanella, Paolo; Stevanovic, Slavimir

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk reduction has long been recognized for its role in mitigating the negative environmental, social and economic impacts of natural hazards. Flood Early Warning System is a disaster risk reduction measure based on the capacities of institutions to observe and predict extreme hydro-meteorological events and to disseminate timely and meaningful warning information; it is furthermore based on the capacities of individuals, communities and organizations to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss. An operational definition of an Early Warning System has been suggested by ISDR - UN Office for DRR [15 January 2009]: "EWS is the set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss.". ISDR continues by commenting that a people-centered early warning system necessarily comprises four key elements: 1-knowledge of the risks; 2-monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; 3-communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and 4- local capabilities to respond to the warnings received." The technological platform DEWETRA supports the strengthening of the first three key elements of EWS suggested by ISDR definition, hence to improve the capacities to build real-time risk scenarios and to inform and warn the population in advance The technological platform DEWETRA has been implemented for the Republic of Serbia. DEWETRA is a real time-integrate system that supports decision makers for risk forecasting and monitoring and for distributing warnings to end-user and to the general public. The system is based on the rapid availability of different data that helps to establish up-to-date and reliable risk scenarios. The integration of all relevant data for risk management significantly

  18. Adapting the EDuMaP method to test the performance of the Norwegian early warning system for weather-induced landslides

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piciullo, Luca; Dahl, Mads-Peter; Devoli, Graziella; Colleuille, Hervé; Calvello, Michele

    2017-06-01

    The Norwegian national landslide early warning system (LEWS), operational since 2013, is managed by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate and was designed for monitoring and forecasting the hydrometeorological conditions potentially triggering slope failures. Decision-making in the LEWS is based upon rainfall thresholds, hydrometeorological and real-time landslide observations as well as on landslide inventory and susceptibility maps. Daily alerts are issued throughout the country considering variable size warning zones. Warnings are issued once per day for the following 3 days and can be updated according to weather forecasts and information gathered by the monitoring network. The performance of the LEWS operational in Norway has been evaluated applying the EDuMaP method, which is based on the computation of a duration matrix relating number of landslides and warning levels issued in a warning zone. In the past, this method has been exclusively employed to analyse the performance of regional early warning models considering fixed warning zones. Herein, an original approach is proposed for the computation of the elements of the duration matrix in the case of early warning models issuing alerts on variable size areas. The approach has been used to evaluate the warnings issued in Western Norway, in the period 2013-2014, considering two datasets of landslides. The results indicate that the landslide datasets do not significantly influence the performance evaluation, although a slightly better performance is registered for the smallest dataset. Different performance results are observed as a function of the values adopted for one of the most important input parameters of EDuMaP, the landslide density criterion (i.e. setting the thresholds to differentiate among classes of landslide events). To investigate this issue, a parametric analysis has been conducted; the results of the analysis show significant differences among computed performances when

  19. Assessment of early warning system performance and improvements since it is in operational phase in Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ionescu, Constantin; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Ortansa Cioflan, Carmen

    2017-04-01

    Earthquake represents a major natural disaster for Romanian territory. The main goal following the occurrence of a strong earthquake is to minimize the total number of fatalities. A rapid early warning system (REWS) was developed in Romania in order to provide 25-35 seconds warning time to Bucharest facilities for the earthquakes with M>5.0. The system consists of four components: a network of strong motion sensors installed in the epicentral area, a redundant communication network, an automatic analyzing system located in the Romanian Data Centre and an alert distribution system. The detection algorithm is based on the magnitude computation using strong motion data and rapid evaluation and scaling relation between the maximum P-wave acceleration measured in the epicentral area and the higher ground motion amplitude recorded in Bucharest. In order to reduce the damages caused by earthquakes, the exploitation of the up to date technology is very important. The information is the key point in the disaster management, and the internet is one of the most used instrument, implying also low costs. The Rapid Early Warning System was expanded to cover all countries affected by major earthquakes originating in the Vrancea seismic area and reduce their impact on existing installations of national interest in neighbouring Romania and elsewhere. REWS provides an efficient instrument for prevention and reaction based on the integrated system for seismic detection in South-Eastern Europe. REWS has been operational since 2013 and sends alert the authorities, hazardous facilities in Romania and Bulgaria (NPP, emergency response agencies etc.) and to public via twitter and some smartphone applications developed in the house. Also, NIEP is part of the UNESCO initiative case on developing a platform on earthquake early warning systems (IP-MEP) that aims to promote and strengthen the development of earthquake early warning systems in earthquake-prone regions of the world by sharing

  20. 46 CFR 35.30-1 - Warning signals and signs-TB/ALL.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... § 35.30-1 Warning signals and signs—TB/ALL. (a) Red warning signals. During transfer of bulk cargo while fast to a dock, a red signal (flag by day and electric lantern at night) shall be so placed that it will be visible on all sides. While transferring bulk cargo at anchor, a red flag only shall be...

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