103. View of transmitter building no. 102, missile warning operation ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

103. View of transmitter building no. 102, missile warning operation center, overall view of center in operation with staff at consoles. Note defcon (defense condition) display panel (upper right) showing "simulated status"activity level. Also note fiber optic display panel at upper right-center. Official photograph BMEWS Project by Hansen 30 September, 1976, clear as negative no. A-14568. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

Probabilistic and Evolutionary Early Warning System: concepts, performances, and case-studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zollo, A.; Emolo, A.; Colombelli, S.; Elia, L.; Festa, G.; Martino, C.; Picozzi, M.

2013-12-01

PRESTo (PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem) is a software platform for Earthquake Early Warning that integrates algorithms for real-time earthquake location, magnitude estimation and damage assessment into a highly configurable and easily portable package. In its regional configuration, the software processes, in real-time, the 3-component acceleration data streams coming from seismic stations, for P-waves arrival detection and, in the case a quite large event is occurring, can promptly performs event detection and location, magnitude estimation and peak ground-motion prediction at target sites. The regional approach has been integrated with a threshold-based early warning method that allows, in the very first seconds after a moderate-to-large earthquake, to identify the most Probable Damaged Zone starting from the real-time measurement at near-source stations located at increasing distances from the earthquake epicenter, of the peak displacement (Pd) and predominant period of P-waves (τc), over a few-second long window after the P-wave arrival. Thus, each recording site independently provides an evolutionary alert level, according to the Pd and τc it measured, through a decisional table. Since 2009, PRESTo has been under continuous real-time testing using data streaming from the Iripinia Seismic Network (Southern Italy) and has produced a bulletin of some hundreds low magnitude events, including all the M≥2.5 earthquakes occurred in that period in Irpinia. Recently, PRESTo has been also implemented at the accelerometric network and broad-band networks in South Korea and in Romania, and off-line tested in Iberian Peninsula, in Turkey, in Israel, and in Japan. The feasibility of an Early Warning System at national scale, is currently under testing by studying the performances of the PRESTo platform for the Italian Accelerometric Network. Moreover, PRESTo is under experimentation in order to provide alert in a high-school located in the neighborhood of Naples at about 100 km from the Irpinia region.

Feasibility study of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thelen, Weston A.; Hotovec-Ellis, Alicia J.; Bodin, Paul

2016-09-30

The effects of earthquake shaking on the population and infrastructure across the State of Hawaii could be catastrophic, and the high seismic hazard in the region emphasizes the likelihood of such an event. Earthquake early warning (EEW) has the potential to give several seconds of warning before strong shaking starts, and thus reduce loss of life and damage to property. The two approaches to EEW are (1) a network approach (such as ShakeAlert or ElarmS) where the regional seismic network is used to detect the earthquake and distribute the alarm and (2) a local approach where a critical facility has a single seismometer (or small array) and a warning system on the premises.The network approach, also referred to here as ShakeAlert or ElarmS, uses the closest stations within a regional seismic network to detect and characterize an earthquake. Most parameters used for a network approach require observations on multiple stations (typically 3 or 4), which slows down the alarm time slightly, but the alarms are generally more reliable than with single-station EEW approaches. The network approach also benefits from having stations closer to the source of any potentially damaging earthquake, so that alarms can be sent ahead to anyone who subscribes to receive the notification. Thus, a fully implemented ShakeAlert system can provide seconds of warning for both critical facilities and general populations ahead of damaging earthquake shaking.The cost to implement and maintain a fully operational ShakeAlert system is high compared to a local approach or single-station solution, but the benefits of a ShakeAlert system would be felt statewide—the warning times for strong shaking are potentially longer for most sources at most locations.The local approach, referred to herein as “single station,” uses measurements from a single seismometer to assess whether strong earthquake shaking can be expected. Because of the reliance on a single station, false alarms are more common than when using a regional network of seismometers. Given the current network, a single-station approach provides more warning for damaging earthquakes that occur close to the station, but it would have limited benefit compared to a fully implemented ShakeAlert system. For Honolulu, for example, the single-station approach provides an advantage over ShakeAlert only for earthquakes that occur in a narrow zone extending northeast and southwest of O‘ahu. Instrumentation and alarms associated with the single-station approach are typically maintained and assessed within the target facility, and thus no outside connectivity is required. A single-station approach, then, is unlikely to help broader populations beyond the individuals at the target facility, but they have the benefit of being commercially available for relatively little cost. The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) is the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional seismic network responsible for locating and characterizing earthquakes across the State of Hawaii. During 2014 and 2015, HVO tested a network-based EEW algorithm within the current seismic network in order to assess the suitability for building a full EEW system. Using the current seismic instrumentation and processing setup at HVO, it is possible for a network approach to release an alarm a little more than 3 seconds after the earthquake is recorded on the fourth seismometer. Presently, earthquakes having M≥3 detected with the ElarmS algorithm have an average location error of approximately 4.5 km and an average magnitude error of -0.3 compared to the reviewed catalog locations from the HVO. Additional stations and upgrades to existing seismic stations would serve to improve solution precision and warning times and additional staffing would be required to provide support for a robust, network-based EEW system. For a critical facility on the Island of Hawaiʻi, such as the telescopes atop Mauna Kea, one phased approach to mitigate losses could be to immediately install a single station system to establish some level of warning. Subsequently, supporting the implementation of a full network-based EEW system on the Island of Hawaiʻi would provide additional benefit in the form of improved warning times once the system is fully installed and operational, which may take several years. Distributed populations across the Hawaiian Islands, including those outside the major cities and far from the likely earthquake source areas, would likely only benefit from a network approach such as ShakeAlert to provide warnings of strong shaking.

Establishment of turbidity forecasting model and early-warning system for source water turbidity management using back-propagation artificial neural network algorithm and probability analysis.

PubMed

Yang, Tsung-Ming; Fan, Shu-Kai; Fan, Chihhao; Hsu, Nien-Sheng

2014-08-01

The purpose of this study is to establish a turbidity forecasting model as well as an early-warning system for turbidity management using rainfall records as the input variables. The Taipei Water Source Domain was employed as the study area, and ANOVA analysis showed that the accumulative rainfall records of 1-day Ping-lin, 2-day Ping-lin, 2-day Fei-tsui, 2-day Shi-san-gu, 2-day Tai-pin and 2-day Tong-hou were the six most significant parameters for downstream turbidity development. The artificial neural network model was developed and proven capable of predicting the turbidity concentration in the investigated catchment downstream area. The observed and model-calculated turbidity data were applied to developing the turbidity early-warning system. Using a previously determined turbidity as the threshold, the rainfall criterion, above which the downstream turbidity would possibly exceed this respective threshold turbidity, for the investigated rain gauge stations was determined. An exemplary illustration demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed turbidity early-warning system as a precautionary alarm of possible significant increase of downstream turbidity. This study is the first report of the establishment of the turbidity early-warning system. Hopefully, this system can be applied to source water turbidity forecasting during storm events and provide a useful reference for subsequent adjustment of drinking water treatment operation.

The Accelerometric Networks in Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zulfikar, Can; Alcik, Hakan; Mert, Aydin; Tahtasizoglu, Bahar; Kafadar, Nafiz; Korkmaz, Ahmet; Ozel, Oguz; Erdik, Mustafa

2010-05-01

In recent years several strong motion networks have been established in Istanbul with a preparation purpose for future probable earthquake. This study addresses the introduction of current seismic networks and presentation of some recent results recorded in these networks. Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning System Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning System has ten strong motion stations which were installed as close as possible to Marmara Sea main fault zone. Continuous on-line data from these stations via digital radio modem provide early warning for potentially disastrous earthquakes. Considering the complexity of fault rupture and the short fault distances involved, a simple and robust Early Warning algorithm, based on the exceedance of specified threshold time domain amplitude levels is implemented. The current algorithm compares the band-pass filtered accelerations and the cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) with specified threshold levels. The bracketed CAV window values that will be put into practice are accepted as to be 0.20, 0.40 and 0.70 m/s for three alarm levels, respectively. Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System has one hundred 18 bit-resolution strong motion accelerometers which were placed in quasi-free field locations (basement of small buildings) in the populated areas of the city, within an area of approximately 50x30km, to constitute a network that will enable early damage assessment and rapid response information after a damaging earthquake. Early response information is achieved through fast acquisition and analysis of processed data obtained from the network. The stations are routinely interrogated on regular basis by the main data center. After triggered by an earthquake, each station processes the streaming strong motion data to yield the spectral accelerations at specific periods and sends these parameters in the form of SMS messages at every 20s directly to the main data center through a designated GSM network and through a microwave system. A shake map and damage distribution map (using aggregate building inventories and fragility curves) will then be automatically generated using the algorithm developed for this purpose. Loss assessment studies are complemented by a large citywide digital database on the topography, geology, soil conditions, building, infrastructure and lifeline inventory. The shake and damage maps will be conveyed to the governor's and mayor's offices and army headquarters within 3 minutes using radio modem and GPRS communication. Self Organizing Seismic Early Warning Information Network (SOSEWIN) in Atakoy District SOSEWIN sensors were developed by GFZ and Humbold University as part of SAFER project and EDIM project, and with cooperation of KOERI, the sensors were installed in Atakoy district of Istanbul city with Early Warning purpose. The main features of the SOSEWIN system are each sensing unit is comprised of low-cost components, undertakes its own seismological data processing, analysis and archiving, and its self-organizing capability with wireless mesh network communication. Seismic Network in Important Structures Some of the critical structures located in Istanbul city such as Fatih Sultan Mehmet Suspension Bridge which is connecting Asian and European sides of the city, Hagia Sophia Museum and Suleymaniye Mosque which are historical structures with an age of over 1000 years and 450 years respectively, . Kanyon Tower&Mall, Trakya Elektrik (formerly ENRON) and Isbank Tower (ISKULE) are monitorized to observe their seismic behaviors.

Seismic Monitoring of Permafrost During Controlled Thaw: An Active-Source Experiment Using a Surface Orbital Vibrator and Fiber-Optic DAS Arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dou, S.; Wood, T.; Lindsey, N.; Ajo Franklin, J. B.; Freifeld, B. M.; Gelvin, A.; Morales, A.; Saari, S.; Ekblaw, I.; Wagner, A. M.; Daley, T. M.; Robertson, M.; Martin, E. R.; Ulrich, C.; Bjella, K.

2016-12-01

Thawing of permafrost can cause ground deformations that threaten the integrity of civil infrastructure. It is essential to develop early warning systems that can identify critically warmed permafrost and issue warnings for hazard prevention and control. Seismic methods can play a pivotal role in such systems for at least two reasons: First, seismic velocities are indicative of mechanical strength of the subsurface and thus are directly relevant to engineering properties; Second, seismic velocities in permafrost systems are sensitive to pre-thaw warming, which makes it possible to issue early warnings before the occurrence of hazardous subsidence events. However, several questions remain: What are the seismic signatures that can be effectively used for early warning of permafrost thaw? Can seismic methods provide enough warning times for hazard prevention and control? In this study, we investigate the feasibility of using permanently installed seismic networks for early warnings of permafrost thaw. We conducted continuous active-source seismic monitoring of permafrost that was under controlled heating at CRREL's Fairbanks permafrost experiment station. We used a permanently installed surface orbital vibrator (SOV) as source and surface-trenched DAS arrays as receivers. The SOV is characterized by its excellent repeatability, automated operation, high energy level, and the rich frequency content (10-100 Hz) of the generated wavefields. The fiber-optic DAS arrays allow continuous recording of seismic data with dense spatial sampling (1-meter channel spacing), low cost, and low maintenance. This combination of SOV-DAS provides unique seismic datasets for observing time-lapse changes of warming permafrost at the field scale, hence providing an observational basis for design and development of early warning systems for permafrost thaw.

Earthquake Early Warning: User Education and Designing Effective Messages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burkett, E. R.; Sellnow, D. D.; Jones, L.; Sellnow, T. L.

2014-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and partners are transitioning from test-user trials of a demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) to deciding and preparing how to implement the release of earthquake early warning information, alert messages, and products to the public and other stakeholders. An earthquake early warning system uses seismic station networks to rapidly gather information about an occurring earthquake and send notifications to user devices ahead of the arrival of potentially damaging ground shaking at their locations. Earthquake early warning alerts can thereby allow time for actions to protect lives and property before arrival of damaging shaking, if users are properly educated on how to use and react to such notifications. A collaboration team of risk communications researchers and earth scientists is researching the effectiveness of a chosen subset of potential earthquake early warning interface designs and messages, which could be displayed on a device such as a smartphone. Preliminary results indicate, for instance, that users prefer alerts that include 1) a map to relate their location to the earthquake and 2) instructions for what to do in response to the expected level of shaking. A number of important factors must be considered to design a message that will promote appropriate self-protective behavior. While users prefer to see a map, how much information can be processed in limited time? Are graphical representations of wavefronts helpful or confusing? The most important factor to promote a helpful response is the predicted earthquake intensity, or how strong the expected shaking will be at the user's location. Unlike Japanese users of early warning, few Californians are familiar with the earthquake intensity scale, so we are exploring how differentiating instructions between intensity levels (e.g., "Be aware" for lower shaking levels and "Drop, cover, hold on" at high levels) can be paired with self-directed supplemental information to increase the public's understanding of earthquake shaking and protective behaviors.

Real-time GPS integration for prototype earthquake early warning and near-field imaging of the earthquake rupture process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudnut, K. W.; Given, D.; King, N. E.; Lisowski, M.; Langbein, J. O.; Murray-Moraleda, J. R.; Gomberg, J. S.

2011-12-01

Over the past several years, USGS has developed the infrastructure for integrating real-time GPS with seismic data in order to improve our ability to respond to earthquakes and volcanic activity. As part of this effort, we have tested real-time GPS processing software components , and identified the most robust and scalable options. Simultaneously, additional near-field monitoring stations have been built using a new station design that combines dual-frequency GPS with high quality strong-motion sensors and dataloggers. Several existing stations have been upgraded in this way, using USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project and American Recovery and Reinvestment Act funds in southern California. In particular, existing seismic stations have been augmented by the addition of GPS and vice versa. The focus of new instrumentation as well as datalogger and telemetry upgrades to date has been along the southern San Andreas fault in hopes of 1) capturing a large and potentially damaging rupture in progress and augmenting inputs to earthquake early warning systems, and 2) recovering high quality recordings on scale of large dynamic displacement waveforms, static displacements and immediate and long-term post-seismic transient deformation. Obtaining definitive records of large ground motions close to a large San Andreas or Cascadia rupture (or volcanic activity) would be a fundamentally important contribution to understanding near-source large ground motions and the physics of earthquakes, including the rupture process and friction associated with crack propagation and healing. Soon, telemetry upgrades will be completed in Cascadia and throughout the Plate Boundary Observatory as well. By collaborating with other groups on open-source automation system development, we will be ready to process the newly available real-time GPS data streams and to fold these data in with existing strong-motion and other seismic data. Data from these same stations will also serve the very practical purpose of enabling earthquake early warning and greatly improving rapid finite-fault source modeling. Multiple uses of the effectively very broad-band data obtained by these stations, for operational and research purposes, are bound to occur especially because all data will be freely, openly and instantly available.

Research to Operations: From Point Positions, Earthquake and Tsunami Modeling to GNSS-augmented Tsunami Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stough, T.; Green, D. S.

2017-12-01

This collaborative research to operations demonstration brings together the data and algorithms from NASA research, technology, and applications-funded projects to deliver relevant data streams, algorithms, predictive models, and visualization tools to the NOAA National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC) and Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC). Using real-time GNSS data and models in an operational environment, we will test and evaluate an augmented capability for tsunami early warning. Each of three research groups collect data from a selected network of real-time GNSS stations, exchange data consisting of independently processed 1 Hz station displacements, and merge the output into a single, more accurate and reliable set. The resulting merged data stream is delivered from three redundant locations to the TWCs with a latency of 5-10 seconds. Data from a number of seismogeodetic stations with collocated GPS and accelerometer instruments are processed for displacements and seismic velocities and also delivered. Algorithms for locating and determining the magnitude of earthquakes as well as algorithms that compute the source function of a potential tsunami using this new data stream are included in the demonstration. The delivered data, algorithms, models and tools are hosted on NOAA-operated machines at both warning centers, and, once tested, the results will be evaluated for utility in improving the speed and accuracy of tsunami warnings. This collaboration has the potential to dramatically improve the speed and accuracy of the TWCs local tsunami information over the current seismometer-only based methods. In our first year of this work, we have established and deployed an architecture for data movement and algorithm installation at the TWC's. We are addressing data quality issues and porting algorithms into the TWCs operating environment. Our initial module deliveries will focus on estimating moment magnitude (Mw) from Peak Ground Displacement (PGD), within 2-3 minutes of the event, and coseismic displacements converging to static offsets. We will also develop visualizations of module outputs tailored to the operational environment. In the context of this work, we will also discuss this research to operations approach and other opportunities within the NASA Applied Science Disaster Program.

26. View of second floor of transmitter building no. 102 ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

26. View of second floor of transmitter building no. 102 looking across electronic equipment cabinets in area of missile impact predictor (MIP) area. Note U.S. Air Force emblem in mid-center of photograph. This area is in front of the Missile Warning Operations Center (MWOC) office. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

Using a neural network approach and time series data from an international monitoring station in the Yellow Sea for modeling marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Zhang, Yingying; Wang, Juncheng; Vorontsov, A M; Hou, Guangli; Nikanorova, M N; Wang, Hongliang

2014-01-01

The international marine ecological safety monitoring demonstration station in the Yellow Sea was developed as a collaborative project between China and Russia. It is a nonprofit technical workstation designed as a facility for marine scientific research for public welfare. By undertaking long-term monitoring of the marine environment and automatic data collection, this station will provide valuable information for marine ecological protection and disaster prevention and reduction. The results of some initial research by scientists at the research station into predictive modeling of marine ecological environments and early warning are described in this paper. Marine ecological processes are influenced by many factors including hydrological and meteorological conditions, biological factors, and human activities. Consequently, it is very difficult to incorporate all these influences and their interactions in a deterministic or analysis model. A prediction model integrating a time series prediction approach with neural network nonlinear modeling is proposed for marine ecological parameters. The model explores the natural fluctuations in marine ecological parameters by learning from the latest observed data automatically, and then predicting future values of the parameter. The model is updated in a "rolling" fashion with new observed data from the monitoring station. Prediction experiments results showed that the neural network prediction model based on time series data is effective for marine ecological prediction and can be used for the development of early warning systems.

TrigDB for improving the reliability of the epicenter locations by considering the neighborhood station's trigger and cutting out of outliers in operation of Earthquake Early Warning System.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chi, H. C.; Park, J. H.; Lim, I. S.; Seong, Y. J.

2016-12-01

TrigDB is initially developed for the discrimination of teleseismic-origin false alarm in the case with unreasonably associated triggers producing mis-located epicenters. We have applied TrigDB to the current EEWS(Earthquake Early Warning System) from 2014. During the early stage of testing EEWS from 2011, we adapted ElarmS from US Berkeley BSL to Korean seismic network and applied more than 5 years. We found out that the real-time testing results of EEWS in Korea showed that all events inside of seismic network with bigger than magnitude 3.0 were well detected. However, two events located at sea area gave false location results with magnitude over 4.0 due to the long period and relatively high amplitude signals related to the teleseismic waves or regional deep sources. These teleseismic-relevant false events were caused by logical co-relation during association procedure and the corresponding geometric distribution of associated stations is crescent-shaped. Seismic stations are not deployed uniformly, so the expected bias ratio varies with evaluated epicentral location. This ratio is calculated in advance and stored into database, called as TrigDB, for the discrimination of teleseismic-origin false alarm. We upgraded this method, so called `TrigDB back filling', updating location with supplementary association of stations comparing triggered times between sandwiched stations which was not associated previously based on predefined criteria such as travel-time. And we have tested a module to reject outlier trigger times by setting a criteria comparing statistical values(Sigma) to the triggered times. The criteria of cutting off the outlier is slightly slow to work until the number of stations more than 8, however, the result of location is very much improved.

Real-Time Earthquake Risk Mitigation Of Infrastructures Using Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Response Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zulfikar, Can; Pinar, Ali; Tunc, Suleyman; Erdik, Mustafa

2014-05-01

The Istanbul EEW network consisting of 10 inland and 5 OBS strong motion stations located close to the Main Marmara Fault zone is operated by KOERI. Data transmission between the remote stations and the base station at KOERI is provided both with satellite and fiber optic cable systems. The continuous on-line data from these stations is used to provide real time warning for emerging potentially disastrous earthquakes. The data transmission time from the remote stations to the KOERI data center is a few milliseconds through fiber optic lines and less than a second via satellites. The early warning signal (consisting three alarm levels) is communicated to the appropriate servo shut-down systems of the receipent facilities, that automatically decide proper action based on the alarm level. Istanbul Gas Distribution Corporation (IGDAS) is one of the end users of the EEW signal. IGDAS, the primary natural gas provider in Istanbul, operates an extensive system 9,867 km of gas lines with 550 district regulators and 474,000 service boxes. State of-the-art protection systems automatically cut natural gas flow when breaks in the pipelines are detected. Since 2005, buildings in Istanbul using natural gas are required to install seismometers that automatically cut natural gas flow when certain thresholds are exceeded. IGDAS uses a sophisticated SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) system to monitor the state-of-health of its pipeline network. This system provides real-time information about quantities related to pipeline monitoring, including input-output pressure, drawing information, positions of station and RTU (remote terminal unit) gates, slum shut mechanism status at 581 district regulator sites. The SCADA system of IGDAŞ receives the EEW signal from KOERI and decide the proper actions according to the previously specified ground acceleration levels. Presently, KOERI sends EEW signal to the SCADA system of IGDAS Natural Gas Network of Istanbul. The EEW signal of KOERI is also transmitted to the serve shut down system of the Marmaray Rail Tube Tunnel and Commuter Rail Mass Transit System in Istanbul. The Marmaray system includes an undersea railway tunnel under the Bosphorus Strait. Several strong motion instruments are installed within the tunnel for taking measurements against strong ground shaking and early warning purposes. This system is integrated with the KOERI EEW System. KOERI sends the EEW signal to the command center of Marmaray. Having received the signal, the command center put into action the previously defined measurements. For example, the trains within the tunnel will be stopped at the nearest station, no access to the tunnel will be allowed to the trains approaching the tunnel, water protective caps will be closed to protect flood closing the connection between the onshore and offshore tunnels.

The analysis results of EEWS(Earthquake Early Warning System) about Iksan(Ml4.3) and Ulsan(Ml5.0) earthquakes in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J. H.; Chi, H. C.; Lim, I. S.; Seong, Y. J.; Pak, J.

2016-12-01

EEW(Earthquake Early Warning) service to the public has been officially operated by KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) from 2015 in Korea. For the KMA's official EEW service, KIGAM has adopted ElarmS from UC Berkeley BSL and modified local magnitude relation, 1-D travel time curves and association procedures with real time waveforms from about 160 seismic stations of KMA and KIGAM. We have checked the performance of EEWS(Earthquake Early Warning System) reviewing two moderate size earthquakes: one is Iksan Eq.(Ml4.3) inside of networks and the other is Ulsan Eq.(Ml5.0) happened at the southern east sea of Korea outside of networks. The first trigger time at NPR station of the Iksan Eq. took 2.3 sec and BUY and JEO2 stations were associated to produce the first event version in 10.07 sec from the origin time respectively. Because the epicentral distance of JEO2 station is about 30 km and the estimated travel time is 6.2 sec, the delay time including transmission and processing is estimated as 3.87 sec with assumption that P wave velocity is 5 km/sec and the focal depth is 8 km. The first magnitude was M4.9 which was a little bigger than Ml4.3 by KIGAM. After adding 3 more triggers of stations (CHO, KMSA, PORA), the estimated magnitude became to M4.6 and the final was settled down to M4.3 with 10 stations. In the case of Ulsan the first trigger time took 11.04 sec and the first alert time with 3 stations in 14.8 sec from the origin time (OT) respectively. The first magnitude was M5.2, however, the difference between the first EEW epicenter and the manual final result was about 63 km due to the poor azimuth coverage outside of seismic network. After 16.2 sec from OT the fourth station YSB was used to update the location near to the manual results within 6 km with magnitude 5.0 and location and magnitude were stable with more stations. Ulsan Eq. was the first case announced to the public by EEWS and the process and result were successful, however, we have to make more effort to reduce the delay times and improve tools for the communication with the public in Korea.

19. View of satcom communication dome with TR radome in ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

19. View of satcom communication dome with TR radome in background right. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

Raingauge-Based Rainfall Nowcasting with Artificial Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liong, Shie-Yui; He, Shan

2010-05-01

Rainfall forecasting and nowcasting are of great importance, for instance, in real-time flood early warning systems. Long term rainfall forecasting demands global climate, land, and sea data, thus, large computing power and storage capacity are required. Rainfall nowcasting's computing requirement, on the other hand, is much less. Rainfall nowcasting may use data captured by radar and/or weather stations. This paper presents the application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) on rainfall nowcasting using data observed at weather and/or rainfall stations. The study focuses on the North-East monsoon period (December, January and February) in Singapore. Rainfall and weather data from ten stations, between 2000 and 2006, were selected and divided into three groups for training, over-fitting test and validation of the ANN. Several neural network architectures were tried in the study. Two architectures, Backpropagation ANN and Group Method of Data Handling ANN, yielded better rainfall nowcasting, up to two hours, than the other architectures. The obtained rainfall nowcasts were then used by a catchment model to forecast catchment runoff. The results of runoff forecast are encouraging and promising.With ANN's high computational speed, the proposed approach may be deliverable for creating the real-time flood early warning system.

56. Building 105, close view of ion return RF balance ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

56. Building 105, close view of ion return RF balance tube adjustment controls. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

45. Building 102, view of waveguide "coaxial waste load" device ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

45. Building 102, view of waveguide "coaxial waste load" device connected to waveguide combiner. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

78. View of radar systems technical publication library, transmitter building ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

78. View of radar systems technical publication library, transmitter building no. 102, second floor. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

Tsunami Warning Center in Turkey : Status Update 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meral Ozel, N.; Necmioglu, O.; Yalciner, A. C.; Kalafat, D.; Yilmazer, M.; Comoglu, M.; Sanli, U.; Gurbuz, C.; Erdik, M.

2012-04-01

This is an update to EGU2011-3094 informing on the progress of the establishment of a National Tsunami Warning Center in Turkey (NTWC-TR) under the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission - Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (IOC-ICG/NEAMTWS) initiative. NTWC-TR is integrated into the 24/7 operational National Earthquake Monitoring Center (NEMC) of KOERI comprising 129 BB and 61 strong motion sensors. Based on an agreement with the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (DEMP), data from 10 BB stations located in the Aegean and Mediterranean Coast is now transmitted in real time to KOERI. Real-time data transmission from 6 primary and 10 auxiliary stations from the International Monitoring System will be in place in the very near future based on an agreement concluded with the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) in 2011. In an agreement with a major Turkish GSM company, KOERI is enlarging its strong-motion network to promote real-time seismology and to extend Earthquake Early Warning system countrywide. 25 accelerometers (included in the number given above) have been purchased and installed at Base Transceiver Station Sites in coastal regions within the scope of this initiative. Data from 3 tide gauge stations operated by General Command of Mapping (GCM) is being transmitted to KOERI via satellite connection and the aim is to integrate all tide-gauge stations operated by GCM into NTWC-TR. A collaborative agreement has been signed with the European Commission - Joint Research Centre (EC-JRC) and MOD1 Tsunami Scenario Database and TAT (Tsunami Analysis Tool) are received by KOERI and user training was provided. The database and the tool are linked to SeisComp3 and currently operational. In addition KOERI is continuing the work towards providing contributions to JRC in order to develop an improved database (MOD2), and also continuing work related to the development of its own scenario database using NAMI DANCE Tsunami Simulation and Visualization Software. Further improvement of the Tsunami Warning System at the NTWC-TR will be accomplished through KOERI's participation in the FP-7 Project TRIDEC focusing on new technologies for real-time intelligent earth information management to be used in Tsunami Early Warning Systems. In cooperation with Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS), KOERI has its own GTS system now and connected to GTS via its own satellite hub. The system has been successfully utilized during the First Enlarged Communication Test Exercise (NEAMTWS/ECTE1), where KOERI acted as the message provider. KOERI is providing guidance and assistance to a working group established within the DEMP on issues such as Communication and Tsunami Exercises, National Procedures and National Tsunami Response Plan. KOERI is also participating in NEAMTIC (North-Eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean Tsunami Information Centre) Project. Finally, during the 8th Session of NEAMTWS in November 2011, KOERI has announced that NTWC-TR is operational as of January 2012 covering Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean, Marmara and Black Seas and KOERI is also ready to operate as an Interim Candidate Tsunami Watch Provider.

Design Principles for resilient cyber-physical Early Warning Systems - Challenges, Experiences, Design Patterns, and Best Practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gensch, S.; Wächter, J.; Schnor, B.

2014-12-01

Early warning systems (EWS) are safety-critical IT-infrastructures that serve the purpose of potentially saving lives or assets by observing real-world phenomena and issuing timely warning products to authorities and communities. An EWS consists of sensors, communication networks, data centers, simulation platforms, and dissemination channels. The components of this cyber-physical system may all be affected by both natural hazards and malfunctions of components alike. Resilience engineering so far has mostly been applied to safety-critical systems and processes in transportation (aviation, automobile), construction and medicine. Early warning systems need equivalent techniques to compensate for failures, and furthermore means to adapt to changing threats, emerging technology and research findings. We present threats and pitfalls from our experiences with the German and Indonesian tsunami early warning system, as well as architectural, technological and organizational concepts employed that can enhance an EWS' resilience. The current EWS is comprised of a multi-type sensor data upstream part, different processing and analysis engines, a decision support system, and various warning dissemination channels. Each subsystem requires a set of approaches towards ensuring stable functionality across system layer boundaries, including also institutional borders. Not only must services be available, but also produce correct results. Most sensors are distributed components with restricted resources, communication channels and power supply. An example for successful resilience engineering is the power capacity based functional management for buoy and tide gauge stations. We discuss various fault-models like cause and effect models on linear pathways, interaction of multiple events, complex and non-linear interaction of assumedly reliable subsystems and fault tolerance means implemented to tackle these threats.

Karst show caves - how DTN technology as used in space assists automatic environmental monitoring and tourist protection - experiment in Postojna cave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabrovšek, F.; Grašič, B.; Božnar, M. Z.; Mlakar, P.; Udén, M.; Davies, E.

2013-10-01

The paper presents an experiment demonstrating a novel and successful application of Delay- and Disruption-Tolerant Networking (DTN) technology for automatic data transfer in a karst cave Early Warning and Measuring System. The experiment took place inside the Postojna Cave in Slovenia, which is open to tourists. Several automatic meteorological measuring stations are set up inside the cave, as an adjunct to the surveillance infrastructure; the regular data transfer provided by the DTN technology allows the surveillance system to take on the role of an Early Warning System (EWS). One of the stations is set up alongside the railway tracks, which allows the tourist to travel inside the cave by train. The experiment was carried out by placing a DTN "data mule" (a DTN-enabled computer with WiFi connection) on the train and by upgrading the meteorological station with a DTN-enabled WiFi transmission system. When the data mule is in the wireless drive-by mode, it collects measurement data from the station over a period of several seconds as the train passes the stationary equipment, and delivers data at the final train station by the cave entrance. This paper describes an overview of the experimental equipment and organisation allowing the use of a DTN system for data collection and an EWS inside karst caves where there is a regular traffic of tourists and researchers.

Karst show caves - how DTN technology as used in space assists automatic environmental monitoring and tourist protection - experiment in Postojna Cave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabrovšek, F.; Grašič, B.; Božnar, M. Z.; Mlakar, P.; Udén, M.; Davies, E.

2014-02-01

The paper presents an experiment demonstrating a novel and successful application of delay- and disruption-tolerant networking (DTN) technology for automatic data transfer in a karst cave early warning and measuring system. The experiment took place inside the Postojna Cave in Slovenia, which is open to tourists. Several automatic meteorological measuring stations are set up inside the cave, as an adjunct to the surveillance infrastructure; the regular data transfer provided by the DTN technology allows the surveillance system to take on the role of an early warning system (EWS). One of the stations is set up alongside the railway tracks, which allows the tourist to travel inside the cave by train. The experiment was carried out by placing a DTN "data mule" (a DTN-enabled computer with WiFi connection) on the train and by upgrading the meteorological station with a DTN-enabled WiFi transmission system. When the data mule is in the wireless drive-by mode, it collects measurement data from the station over a period of several seconds as the train without stopping passes the stationary equipment, and delivers data at the final train station by the cave entrance. This paper describes an overview of the experimental equipment and organization allowing the use of a DTN system for data collection and an EWS inside karst caves where there is regular traffic of tourists and researchers.

60. View of radome hydraulic module control center in mezzanine ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

60. View of radome hydraulic module control center in mezzanine level in transmitter building no. 102. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

33. View of data converter and power supply for TR ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

33. View of data converter and power supply for TR system in transmitter building no. 102, mezzanine level. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

77. View of interior of room 115, building no. 102, ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

77. View of interior of room 115, building no. 102, with technical publications and equipment for testing. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

Real-Time Earthquake Analysis for Disaster Mitigation (READI) Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bock, Y.

2014-12-01

Real-time GNSS networks are making a significant impact on our ability to forecast, assess, and mitigate the effects of geological hazards. I describe the activities of the Real-time Earthquake Analysis for Disaster Mitigation (READI) working group. The group leverages 600+ real-time GPS stations in western North America operated by UNAVCO (PBO network), Central Washington University (PANGA), US Geological Survey & Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SCIGN project), UC Berkeley & US Geological Survey (BARD network), and the Pacific Geosciences Centre (WCDA project). Our goal is to demonstrate an earthquake and tsunami early warning system for western North America. Rapid response is particularly important for those coastal communities that are in the near-source region of large earthquakes and may have only minutes of warning time, and who today are not adequately covered by existing seismic and basin-wide ocean-buoy monitoring systems. The READI working group is performing comparisons of independent real time analyses of 1 Hz GPS data for station displacements and is participating in government-sponsored earthquake and tsunami exercises in the Western U.S. I describe a prototype seismogeodetic system using a cluster of southern California stations that includes GNSS tracking and collocation with MEMS accelerometers for real-time estimation of seismic velocity and displacement waveforms, which has advantages for improved earthquake early warning and tsunami forecasts compared to seismic-only or GPS-only methods. The READI working group's ultimate goal is to participate in an Indo-Pacific Tsunami early warning system that utilizes GNSS real-time displacements and ionospheric measurements along with seismic, near-shore buoys and ocean-bottom pressure sensors, where available, to rapidly estimate magnitude and finite fault slip models for large earthquakes, and then forecast tsunami source, energy scale, geographic extent, inundation and runup. This will require cooperation with other real-time efforts around the Pacific Rim in terms of sharing, analysis centers, and advisory bulletins to the responsible government agencies. The IAG's Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS), in particular its natural hazards theme, provides a natural umbrella for achieving this objective.

A new prototype system for earthquake early warning in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsiao, N.; Wu, Y.; Chen, D.; Kuo, K.; Shin, T.

2009-12-01

Earthquake early warning (EEW) system has already been developed and tested in Taiwan for more than ten years. With the implementation of a real-time strong-motion network by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB), a virtual sub-network (VSN) system based on regional early warning approach was utilized at the first attempt. In order to shorten the processing time, seismic waveforms in a 10-sec time window starting from the first P-wave arrival time at the nearest station are used to determine the hypocenter and earthquake magnitude which is dubbed ML10. Since 2001, this EEW system has responded to a total of 255 events with magnitude greater than 4.5 occurred inland or off the coast of Taiwan. The system is capable of issuing an earthquake report within 20 sec of its occurrence with good magnitude estimations for events up to magnitude 6.5. This will provide early warning for metropolitan areas located 70 km away from the epicentre. In the latest development, a new prototype EEW system based on P-wave method was developed. Instead of ML10, we adopt the “Pd magnitude”, MPd, as our magnitude indicator in the new system. Pd is defined as the peak amplitude of the initial P-wave displacement. In the previous studies, by analyzing the Pd attenuation relationship with earthquake magnitudes, Pd was proved to be a good magnitude estimator for EEW purpose. Therefore, we adopt the Pd magnitude in developing our next generation EEW system. The new system is designed and constructed based on the Central Weather Bureau Seismographic Network (CWBSN). The CWBSN is a real-time seismographic network with more than one hundred digital telemetered seismic stations distributed over the entire Taiwan. Currently, there are three types of seismic instruments installed at the stations, either co-site or separately installed, including short-period seismographs, accelerometers, and broadband instruments. For the need of integral data processing, we use the Earthworm system as a common platform to integrate all real-time signals. In the process, strong-motion and broadband signals are used for automatic P-wave arrival time and Pd determination. However, short-period signals are only used for P-wave arrival time picking. This new system is still under development and being improved, with the hope of replacing the current operational EEW system in the future.

Development of an advanced radioactive airborne particle monitoring system for use in early warning networks.

PubMed

Baeza, A; Corbacho, J A; Caballero, J M; Ontalba, M A; Vasco, J; Valencia, D

2017-09-25

Automatic real-time warning networks are essential for the almost immediate detection of anomalous levels of radioactivity in the environment. In the case of Extremadura region (SW Spain), a radiological network (RARE) has been operational in the vicinity of the Almaraz nuclear power plant and in other areas farther away since 1992. There are ten air monitoring stations equipped with Geiger-Müller counters in order to evaluate the external ambient gamma dose rate. Four of these stations have a commercial system that provides estimates of the total artificial alpha and beta activity concentrations in aerosols, and of the 131 I activity (gaseous fraction). Despite experience having demonstrated the benefits and robustness of these commercial systems, important improvements have been made to one of these air monitoring systems. In this paper, the analytical and maintenance shortcomings of the original commercial air monitoring system are described first; the new custom-designed advanced air monitoring system is then presented. This system is based mainly on the incorporation of gamma spectrometry using two scintillation detectors, one of NaI:Tl and the other of LaBr 3 :Ce, and compact multichannel analysers. Next, a comparison made of the results provided by the two systems operating simultaneously at the same location for three months shows the advantages of the new advanced air monitoring system. As a result, the gamma spectrometry analysis allows passing from global alpha and beta activity determinations due to artificial radionuclides in aerosols, and the inaccurate measurement of the gaseous 131 I activity concentration, to the possibility of identifying a large number of radionuclides and quantifying each of their activity concentrations. Moreover, the new station's dual capacity is designed to work in early warning monitoring mode and surveillance monitoring mode. This is based on custom developed software that includes an intelligent system to issue the necessary warnings when radiological anomalies or technical problems are identified. Implicitly, for the construction of the advanced station, substantial mechanical and electronic developments have been required. They have essentially consisted of integrating a new replacement device, whose operation has reduced the maintenance tasks.

Improvement of real-time seismic magnitude estimation by combining seismic and geodetic instrumentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, D.; Bock, Y.; Melgar, D.

2017-12-01

Rapid seismic magnitude assessment is a top priority for earthquake and tsunami early warning systems. For the largest earthquakes, seismic instrumentation tends to underestimate the magnitude, leading to an insufficient early warning, particularly in the case of tsunami evacuation orders. GPS instrumentation provides more accurate magnitude estimations using near-field stations, but isn't sensitive enough to detect the first seismic wave arrivals, thereby limiting solution speed. By optimally combining collocated seismic and GPS instruments, we demonstrate improved solution speed of earthquake magnitude for the largest seismic events. We present a real-time implementation of magnitude-scaling relations that adapts to consider the length of the recording, reflecting the observed evolution of ground motion with time.

Implementation of a landslide early warning system based on near-real-time monitoring, multisensor mapping and geophysical measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teza, Giordano; Galgaro, Antonio; Francese, Roberto; Ninfo, Andrea; Mariani, Rocco

2017-04-01

An early warning system has been implemented to monitor the Perarolo di Cadore landslide (North-Eastern Italian Alps), which is a slump whose induced risk is fairly high because a slope collapse could form a temporary dam on the underlying torrent and, therefore, could directly threaten the close village. A robotic total station (RTS) measures, with 6h returning time, the positions of 23 retro-reflectors placed on the landslide upper and middle sectors. The landslide's kinematical behavior derived from these near-real-time (NRT) surface displacements is interpreted on the basis of available geomorphological and geological information, geometrical data provided by some laser scanning and photogrammetric surveys, and a landslide model obtained by means of 3D Electrical Resistivity Tomography (3D ERT) measurements. In this way, an analysis of the time series provided by RTS and a pluviometer, which cover several years, allows the definition of some pre-alert and alert kinematical and rainfall thresholds. These thresholds, as well as the corresponding operational recommendations, are currently used for early warning purposes by Authorities involved in risk management for the Perarolo landslide. It should be noted the fact that, as new RTS and pluviometric data are available, the thresholds can be updated and, therefore, a fine tuning of the early warning system can be carried out in order to improve its performance. Although the proposed approach has been implemented in a particular case, it can be used to develop an early warning system based on NRT data in each site where a landslide threatens infrastructures and/or villages that cannot be relocated.

Earthquake Early Warning Beta Users: Java, Modeling, and Mobile Apps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauss, J. A.; Vinci, M.; Steele, W. P.; Allen, R. M.; Hellweg, M.

2014-12-01

Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) is a system that can provide a few to tens of seconds warning prior to ground shaking at a user's location. The goal and purpose of such a system is to reduce, or minimize, the damage, costs, and casualties resulting from an earthquake. A demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) is undergoing testing in the United States by the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, Caltech, ETH Zurich, University of Washington, the USGS, and beta users in California and the Pacific Northwest. The beta users receive earthquake information very rapidly in real-time and are providing feedback on their experiences of performance and potential uses within their organization. Beta user interactions allow the ShakeAlert team to discern: which alert delivery options are most effective, what changes would make the UserDisplay more useful in a pre-disaster situation, and most importantly, what actions users plan to take for various scenarios. Actions could include: personal safety approaches, such as drop cover, and hold on; automated processes and procedures, such as opening elevator or fire stations doors; or situational awareness. Users are beginning to determine which policy and technological changes may need to be enacted, and funding requirements to implement their automated controls. The use of models and mobile apps are beginning to augment the basic Java desktop applet. Modeling allows beta users to test their early warning responses against various scenarios without having to wait for a real event. Mobile apps are also changing the possible response landscape, providing other avenues for people to receive information. All of these combine to improve business continuity and resiliency.

On the Development of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Networks: Practical experiences from North and Central America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mencin, David; Hodgkinson, Kathleen; Braun, John; Meertens, Charles; Mattioli, Glen; Phillips, David; Blume, Fredrick; Berglund, Henry; Fox, Otina; Feaux, Karl

2015-04-01

The GAGE facility, managed by UNAVCO, maintains and operates about 1300 GNSS stations distributed across North and Central America as part of the EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) and the Continuously Operating Caribbean GPS Observational Network (COCONet). UNAVCO has upgraded about 450 stations in these networks to real-time and high-rate (RT-GNSS) and included surface meteorological instruments. The majority of these streaming stations are part of the PBO but also include approximately 50 RT-GNSS stations in the Caribbean and Central American region as part of the COCONet and TLALOCNet projects. Based on community input UNAVCO has been exploring ways to increase the capability and utility of these resources to improve our understanding in diverse areas of geophysics including seismic, volcanic, magmatic and tsunami deformation sources, extreme weather events such as hurricanes and storms, and space weather. The RT-GNSS networks also have the potential to profoundly transform our ability to rapidly characterize geophysical events, provide early warning, as well as improve hazard mitigation and response. Specific applications currently under development with university, commercial, non-profit and government collaboration on national and international scales include earthquake and tsunami early warning systems and near real-time tropospheric modeling of hurricanes and precipitable water vapor estimate assimilation. Using tsunami early warning as an example, an RT-GNSS network can provide multiple inputs in an operational system starting with rapid assessment of earthquake sources and associated deformation which informs the initial modeled tsunami. The networks can then can also provide direct measurements of the tsunami wave heights and propagation by tracking the associated ionospheric disturbance from several 100's of km away as the waves approaches the shoreline. These GNSS based constraints can refine the tsunami and inundation models and potentially mitigate hazards. Other scientific and operational applications for high-rate GPS include glacier and ice sheet motions, tropospheric modeling, and better constraints on the dynamics of space weather. Our operational system has multiple communities that use and depend on a Pan-Pacific real-time open data set. The ability to merge existing data sets and user communities, seismic and tide gauge observations, with GNSS and Met data products has proven complicated because of issues related to meta-data, appropriate data formats, data quality assessment in real-time and specific issues related to using these products in operational forecasting. Additional issues related to data access across national borders and cognizant government sanctioned "early warning" agencies, some committed to specific technologies, methodologies, internal structure and further constrained by data policies make a truly operational system an on-going work in progress. We present a short history of evolving a very large and expensive RT-GNSS network originally designed to answer specific long term scientific questions about structure and evolution of North American plate boundaries into a much needed national hazard system while continuing to serve our core community in long term scientific studies. Out primary focus in this presentation is an analysis of our current goals and impediments to achieving these broader objectives.

Earth Observations for Early Detection of Agricultural Drought: Contributions of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budde, M. E.; Funk, C.; Husak, G. J.; Peterson, P.; Rowland, J.; Senay, G. B.; Verdin, J. P.

2016-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long history of supporting the use of Earth observation data for food security monitoring through its role as an implementing partner of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) program. The use of remote sensing and crop modeling to address food security threats in the form of drought, floods, pests, and changing climatic regimes has been a core activity in monitoring FEWS NET countries. In recent years, it has become a requirement that FEWS NET apply monitoring and modeling frameworks at global scales to assess emerging crises in regions that FEWS NET does not traditionally monitor. USGS FEWS NET, in collaboration with the University of California, Santa Barbara, has developed a number of new global applications of satellite observations, derived products, and efficient tools for visualization and analyses to address these requirements. (1) A 35-year quasi-global (+/- 50 degrees latitude) time series of gridded rainfall estimates, the Climate Hazards Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset, based on infrared satellite imagery and station observations. Data are available as 5-day (pentadal) accumulations at 0.05 degree spatial resolution. (2) Global actual evapotranspiration data based on application of the Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEB) model using 10-day MODIS Land Surface Temperature composites at 1-km resolution. (3) Production of global expedited MODIS (eMODIS) 10-day NDVI composites updated every 5 days. (4) Development of an updated Early Warning eXplorer (EWX) tool for data visualization, analysis, and sharing. (5) Creation of stand-alone tools for enhancement of gridded rainfall data and trend analyses. (6) Establishment of an agro-climatology analysis tool and knowledge base for more than 90 countries of interest to FEWS NET. In addition to these new products and tools, FEWS NET has partnered with the GEOGLAM community to develop a Crop Monitor for Early Warning (CM4EW) which brings together global expertise in agricultural monitoring to reach consensus on growing season status of "countries at risk". Such engagements will result in enhanced capabilities for extending our monitoring efforts globally.

Enhancing Community Based Early Warning Systems in Nepal with Flood Forecasting Using Local and Global Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dugar, Sumit; Smith, Paul; Parajuli, Binod; Khanal, Sonu; Brown, Sarah; Gautam, Dilip; Bhandari, Dinanath; Gurung, Gehendra; Shakya, Puja; Kharbuja, RamGopal; Uprety, Madhab

2017-04-01

Operationalising effective Flood Early Warning Systems (EWS) in developing countries like Nepal poses numerous challenges, with complex topography and geology, sparse network of river and rainfall gauging stations and diverse socio-economic conditions. Despite these challenges, simple real-time monitoring based EWSs have been in place for the past decade. A key constraint of these simple systems is the very limited lead time for response - as little as 2-3 hours, especially for rivers originating from steep mountainous catchments. Efforts to increase lead time for early warning are focusing on imbedding forecasts into the existing early warning systems. In 2016, the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) piloted an operational Probabilistic Flood Forecasting Model in major river basins across Nepal. This comprised a low data approach to forecast water levels, developed jointly through a research/practitioner partnership with Lancaster University and WaterNumbers (UK) and the International NGO Practical Action. Using Data-Based Mechanistic Modelling (DBM) techniques, the model assimilated rainfall and water levels to generate localised hourly flood predictions, which are presented as probabilistic forecasts, increasing lead times from 2-3 hours to 7-8 hours. The Nepal DHM has simultaneously started utilizing forecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GLoFAS) that provides streamflow predictions at the global scale based upon distributed hydrological simulations using numerical ensemble weather forecasts from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The aforementioned global and local models have already affected the approach to early warning in Nepal, being operational during the 2016 monsoon in the West Rapti basin in Western Nepal. On 24 July 2016, GLoFAS hydrological forecasts for the West Rapti indicated a sharp rise in river discharge above 1500 m3/sec (equivalent to the river warning level at 5 meters) with 53% probability of exceeding the Medium Level Alert in two days. Rainfall stations upstream of the West Rapti catchment recorded heavy rainfall on 26 July, and localized forecasts from the probabilistic model at 8 am suggested that the water level would cross a pre-determined warning level in the next 3 hours. The Flood Forecasting Section at DHM issued a flood advisory, and disseminated SMS flood alerts to more than 13,000 at-risk people residing along the floodplains. Water levels crossed the danger threshold (5.4 meters) at 11 am, peaking at 8.15 meters at 10 pm. Extension of the warning lead time from probabilistic forecasts was significant in minimising the risk to lives and livelihoods as communities gained extra time to prepare, evacuate and respond. Likewise, longer timescale forecasts from GLoFAS could be potentially linked with no-regret early actions leading to improved preparedness and emergency response. These forecasting tools have contributed to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of existing community based systems, increasing the lead time for response. Nevertheless, extensive work is required on appropriate ways to interpret and disseminate probabilistic forecasts having longer (2-14 days) and shorter (3-5 hours) time horizon for operational deployment as there are numerous uncertainties associated with predictions.

49. View of waveguide system entering building no. 105 (typical ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

49. View of waveguide system entering building no. 105 (typical of all radar scanner buildings), showing testing connection points and monitoring equipment. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

24. View of lobby area on first floor transmitter building ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

24. View of lobby area on first floor transmitter building no. 102 looking into controlled access corridor and door system - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

61. View of TR spiral access stair system from transmitter ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

61. View of TR spiral access stair system from transmitter building no. 102 mezzanine level; note elevator door on right. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

17. View looking north to transmitter building no. 102 from ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

17. View looking north to transmitter building no. 102 from south along west side of passageway link with TR radome in background. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

42. View of CSMR room equipment status board and operators ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

42. View of CSMR room equipment status board and operators console with two phone links to MWOC in transmitter building no. 102. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

36. View of preset counter (PC) console and tracking console ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

36. View of preset counter (PC) console and tracking console on right, located in MWOC facility in transmitter building no. 102. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

53. View from ground level in building no. 105 showing ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

53. View from ground level in building no. 105 showing lower radar scanner switch with incoming waveguide and control switch. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

58. View of high pressure IngersollRand dehumidifier/dessicator and compressor system ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

58. View of high pressure Ingersoll-Rand dehumidifier/dessicator and compressor system to supply dry pressurized air to waveguides. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

23. View of junction of passageway link with radar transmitter ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

23. View of junction of passageway link with radar transmitter building 102 (view looking south) showing main personnel entrance door. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

22. View of vehicle entrance to passageway link system taken ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

22. View of vehicle entrance to passageway link system taken from looking west. Note DR 3 antenna in background left. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

37. View of detection radar environmental display (DRED) console for ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

37. View of detection radar environmental display (DRED) console for middle DR 2 (structure no. 736) antenna, located in MWOC facility. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

79. View of interior of room 114, supervisor's office, transmitter ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

79. View of interior of room 114, supervisor's office, transmitter building no. 102, with microfiche viewer and technical publications. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

83. View of specialized maintenance shop in transmitter building no. ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

83. View of specialized maintenance shop in transmitter building no. 101, with shelves of obsolete electronic equipment with disposition and shipping tags. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

30. View of mezzanine floor level in transmitter building no. ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

30. View of mezzanine floor level in transmitter building no. 102 showing control transmitter electronic cabinets and control modules. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

29. View of typical radio frequency monitor group electronic tubetype ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

29. View of typical radio frequency monitor group electronic tube-type cabinet. System is water-cooled with antenna assist. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

6. View of DR 3 antenna typical backstay concrete stanchion ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

6. View of DR 3 antenna typical back-stay concrete stanchion showing embedded anchors and structural steel leg with pin attachment. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

82. View of specialized maintenance shop in transmitter building no. ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

82. View of specialized maintenance shop in transmitter building no. 101, showing technical publications library and equipment logging trays. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

A Sensitivity Analysis of Tsunami Inversions on the Number of Stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Chao; Liu, Philip L.-F.; Meng, Lingsen

2018-05-01

Current finite-fault inversions of tsunami recordings generally adopt as many tsunami stations as possible to better constrain earthquake source parameters. In this study, inversions are evaluated by the waveform residual that measures the difference between model predictions and recordings, and the dependence of the quality of inversions on the number tsunami stations is derived. Results for the 2011 Tohoku event show that, if the tsunami stations are optimally located, the waveform residual decreases significantly with the number of stations when the number is 1 ˜ 4 and remains almost constant when the number is larger than 4, indicating that 2 ˜ 4 stations are able to recover the main characteristics of the earthquake source. The optimal location of tsunami stations is explained in the text. Similar analysis is applied to the Manila Trench in the South China Sea using artificially generated earthquakes and virtual tsunami stations. Results confirm that 2 ˜ 4 stations are necessary and sufficient to constrain the earthquake source parameters, and the optimal sites of stations are recommended in the text. The conclusion is useful for the design of new tsunami warning systems. Current strategies of tsunameter network design mainly focus on the early detection of tsunami waves from potential sources to coastal regions. We therefore recommend that, in addition to the current strategies, the waveform residual could also be taken into consideration so as to minimize the error of tsunami wave prediction for warning purposes.

CISN ShakeAlert: Improving the Virtual Seismologist (VS) earthquake early warning framework to provide faster, more robust warning information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meier, M.; Cua, G. B.; Wiemer, S.; Fischer, M.

2011-12-01

The Virtual Seismologist (VS) method is a Bayesian approach to regional network-based earthquake early warning (EEW) that uses observed phase arrivals, ground motion amplitudes and selected prior information to estimate earthquake magnitude, location and origin time, and predict the distribution of peak ground motion throughout a region using envelope attenuation relationships. Implementation of the VS algorithm in California is an on-going effort of the Swiss Seismological Service (SED) at ETH Zürich. VS is one of three EEW algorithms - the other two being ElarmS (Allen and Kanamori, 2003) and On-Site (Wu and Kanamori, 2005; Boese et al., 2008) - that form the basis of the California Integrated Seismic Network ShakeAlert system, a prototype end-to-end EEW system that could potentially be implemented in California. The current prototype version of VS in California requires picks at 4 stations to initiate an event declaration. On average, taking into account data latency, variable station distribution, and processing time, this initial estimate is available about 20 seconds after the earthquake origin time, corresponding to a blind zone of about 70 km around the epicenter which would receive no warning, but where it would be the most useful. To increase the available warning time, we want to produce EEW estimates faster (with less than 4 stations). However, working with less than 4 stations with our current approach would increase the number of false alerts, for which there is very little tolerance in a useful EEW system. We explore the use of back-azimuth estimations and the Voronoi-based concept of not-yet-arrived data for reducing false alerts of the earliest VS estimates. The concept of not-yet-arrived data was originally used to provide evolutionary location estimates in EEW (Horiuchi, 2005; Cua and Heaton, 2007; Satriano et al. 2008). However, it can also be applied in discriminating between earthquake and non-earthquake signals. For real earthquakes, the constraints on earthquake location from the not-yet-arrived data and the back-azimuth estimations are consistent with location constraints from the available picks. For non-earthquake signals, these different location constraints are in most cases inconsistent. We use archived event data from the Northern and Southern California Seismic Networks as well as archived continuous waveform data from where the current VS codes erroneously declared events to quantify how using a combination of pick-based and not-yet-arrived data constraints can reduce VS false alert rates while providing faster warning information. The consistency of the pick-based and not-yet-arrived data constraints are mapped into the VS likelihood parameter, which reflects the degree of believe that the signals come from a real earthquake. This approach contributes towards improving the robustness of the Virtual Seismologist Multiple Threshold Event Detection (VS-MTED), which allows for single-station event declarations, when signal amplitudes are large enough.

ElarmS Earthquake Early Warning System 2016 Performance and New Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chung, A. I.; Allen, R. M.; Hellweg, M.; Henson, I. H.; Neuhauser, D. S.

2016-12-01

The ElarmS earthquake early warning system has been detecting earthquakes throughout California since 2007. It is one of the algorithms that contributes to the West Coast ShakeAlert, a prototype earthquake early warning system being developed for the US West Coast. ElarmS is also running in the Pacific Northwest, and in Israel, Chile, Turkey, and Peru in test mode. We summarize the performance of the ElarmS system over the past year and review some of the more problematic events that the system has encountered. During the first half of 2016 (2016-01-01 through 2016-07-21), ElarmS successfully alerted on all events with ANSS catalog magnitudes M>3 in the Los Angeles area. The mean alert time for these 9 events was just 4.84 seconds. In the San Francisco Bay Area, ElarmS detected 26 events with ANSS catalog magnitudes M>3. The alert times for these events is 9.12 seconds. The alert times are longer in the Bay Area than in the Los Angeles area due to the sparser network of stations in the Bay Area. 7 Bay Area events were not detected by ElarmS. These events occurred in areas where there is less dense station coverage. In addition, ElarmS sent alerts for 13 of the 16 moderately-sized (ANSS catalog magnitudes M>4) events that occurred throughout the state of California. One of those missed events was a M4.5 that occurred far offshore in the northernmost part of the state. The other two missed events occurred inland in regions with sparse station coverage. Over the past year, we have worked towards the implementation of a new filterbank teleseismic filter algorithm, which we will discuss. Other than teleseismic events, a significant cause of false alerts and severely mislocated events is spurious triggers being associated with triggers from a real earthquake. Here, we address new approaches to filtering out problematic triggers.

Feasibility study on earthquake early warning application to schools: the example of the ITIS 'E. Majorana', Somma Vesuviana, Naples (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emolo, Antonio; Zollo, Aldo; Picozzi, Matteo; Martino, Claudio; Elia, Luca; Verderame, Gerardo; De Risi, Maria Teresa; Ricci, Paolo; Lombardi, Anna; Bindi, Dino; Parolai, Stefano; Boxberger, Tobias; Miranda, Nicola

2014-05-01

One of the main objective of the WP7 (Strategic Applications and Capacity Building) in the framework of the REAKT-Strategies and tools for Real Time Earthquake RisK ReducTion FP7 European project, is to evaluate the effectiveness of EEW and real-time risk assessment procedures in reducing seismic risk to various industrial partners and end-users. In the context of the REAKT project, the AMRA-RISSCLab group is engaged in a feasibility study on the application of earthquake early-warning procedures in two high schools located in the Irpinia region (South Italy), an area that in the 1980 was struck by a magnitude 6.9 earthquake. In this work we report on the activities carried out during the last 24 Months at the school ITIS 'E. Majorana', located in Somma Vesuviana, a village in the neighbourhood of Naples. In order to perform a continuous seismic monitoring of the site, which includes a rather complex structure building, 5 accelerometric stations have been installed in different part of the school. In particular, a 24-bit ADC (Sigma/Delta) Agecodagis-Kefren data-logger has been installed with a Guralp CMG-5TC accelerometer with a 0.25g full-scale in the school courtyard, while 4 SOSEWIN sensors have been also installed at different locations within the building. Commercial ADSL lines provide transmission of real-time data to the EEW centre. Data streams are now acquired in real-time in the PRESToPlus (regional and on-site, threshold-based early-warning) software platform [1]. The recent December 29, 2013 M 5.1 Monti del Matese Earthquake, gave us the unique opportunity to use real strong motion data to test the performance of threshold-based early warning method at the school. The on-site method [2] aims to define alert levels at the monitored site. In particular, at each station the characteristic P-waves period (τc) and the peak displacement (Pd) are measured on the initial P-wave signal. They are compared with threshold values, previously established through an empirical regression analysis, to produce an alert level at each station that can be correlated with the expected local damage in a robust way. At the same time, by means of the software PRESTo and a newly developed prototype of a low-cost EEW sentinel, these data have been also used to run an EEW drill at a few school classes. Finally, the preliminary results of the vulnerability study carried out at the school will be also shown. Indeed, after some preliminary in-situ surveys, structural and non-structural components, which are involved in the vulnerability analysis, have been identified. Hence, geometrical and mechanical model definition was performed and dynamic properties were carried out through a modal analysis. The evaluation of the seismic capacity has been performed through an incremental nonlinear static analysis approach, thus identifying seismic intensity levels leading to different Damage States in structural and non-structural components. References Satriano, Elia et al. (2010). PRESTo, the earthquake early warning system for Southern Italy: Concepts, capabilities and future perspectives. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng, doi 10.1016/j.soildyn.2010.06.008. Zollo et al. (2010). A threshold-based earthquake early warning using dense accelerometer networks. Geophys. J. Int. 183, 963-974.

Development of a Low Cost Earthquake Early Warning System in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Y. M.

2017-12-01

The National Taiwan University (NTU) developed an earthquake early warning (EEW) system for research purposes using low-cost accelerometers (P-Alert) since 2010. As of 2017, a total of 650 stations have been deployed and configured. The NTU system can provide earthquake information within 15 s of an earthquake occurrence. Thus, this system may provide early warnings for cities located more than 50 km from the epicenter. Additionally, the NTU system also has an onsite alert function that triggers a warning for incoming P-waves greater than a certain magnitude threshold, thus providing a 2-3 s lead time before peak ground acceleration (PGA) for regions close to an epicenter. Detailed shaking maps are produced by the NTU system within one or two minutes after an earthquake. Recently, a new module named ShakeAlarm has been developed. Equipped with real-time acceleration signals and the time-dependent anisotropic attenuation relationship of the PGA, ShakingAlarm can provide an accurate PGA estimation immediately before the arrival of the observed PGA. This unique advantage produces sufficient lead time for hazard assessment and emergency response, which is unavailable for traditional shakemap, which are based on only the PGA observed in real time. The performance of ShakingAlarm was tested with six M > 5.5 inland earthquakes from 2013 to 2016. Taking the 2016 M6.4 Meinong earthquake simulation as an example, the predicted PGA converges to a stable value and produces a predicted shake map and an isocontour map of the predicted PGA within 16 seconds of earthquake occurrence. Compared with traditional regional EEW system, ShakingAlarm can effectively identify possible damage regions and provide valuable early warning information (magnitude and PGA) for risk mitigation.

Development of a consortium for water security and safety: Planning for an early warning system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, R.M.; Adam, N.R.; Atluri, V.; Halem, M.; Vowinkel, E.F.; ,

2004-01-01

The events of September 11, 2001 have raised concerns over the safety and security of the Nation's critical infrastructure including water and waste water systems. In June 2002, the U.S. EPA's Region II Office (New York City), in response to concerns over water security, in collaboration with Rutgers University agreed to establish a Regional Drinking Water Security and Safety Consortium (RDWSSC). Members of the consortium include: Rutgers University's Center for Information Management, Integration and Connectivity (CIMIC), American Water (AW), the Passaic Valley Water Commission (PVWC), the North Jersey District Water Supply Commission (NJDWSC), the N.J. Department of Environmental Protection, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agencies, Region II Office. In December of 2002 the consortium members signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to pursue activities to enhance regional water security. Development of an early warning system for source and distributed water was identified as being of primary importance by the consortium. In this context, an early warning system (EWS) is an integrated system of monitoring stations located at strategic points in a water utilities source waters or in its distribution system, designed to warn against contaminants that might threaten the health and welfare of drinking water consumers. This paper will discuss the consortium's progress in achieving these important objectives.

71. Transmitter building no. 102, view of arrangement showing the ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

71. Transmitter building no. 102, view of arrangement showing the Klystron tube vaults along right side of photograph and capacitor vaults along left side of photograph. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

2. View of southerly DR 1 antenna looking north 25 ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

2. View of southerly DR 1 antenna looking north 25 degrees west and and showing radar scanner building no. 105 east face through antenna. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

3. View of middle DR 2 antenna looking north 30 ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

3. View of middle DR 2 antenna looking north 30 degrees west and showing radar scanner building no. 105 east face through antenna. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

43. View of CSMR room equipment locator and system checkout ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

43. View of CSMR room equipment locator and system checkout console for detection radars and rearward communication data links in transmitter building no. 102. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

9. View of back side of radar scanner building no. ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

9. View of back side of radar scanner building no. 106 showing passageway links to other buildings east and west, and DR 3 antenna in background. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

10. View of back side of radar scanner building no. ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

10. View of back side of radar scanner building no. 104 showing passageway links to other building to east and DR 1 antenna in background. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

50. View of waveguides beginning to move toward two radar ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

50. View of waveguides beginning to move toward two radar scanner switches (two per radar scanner building) by vertical bends; also tuning devices are located here. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

21. View from south to southerly face of scanner building ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

21. View from south to southerly face of scanner building 104 showing building radius. Radius of building face matches radius of DR antenna systems. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

18. View from DR 2 antenna looking south 45 degrees ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

18. View from DR 2 antenna looking south 45 degrees west to backside transmitter building 101 and in left foreground showing site well system building. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

20. View from northeast to southwest side of scanner building ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

20. View from northeast to southwest side of scanner building 104 showing two waveguide termination faces (fiberglass light bands on left of photograph). - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

46. Building 102, view showing waveguide control switch used to ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

46. Building 102, view showing waveguide control switch used to achieve equal length adjustments and frequency control between separate Klystron tube radion frequency (RF) generators. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

32. View of relay assembly group and interconnecting group electronic ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

32. View of relay assembly group and interconnecting group electronic modules located on second floor of transmitter building no. 102 in MIP area. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

85. View of specialized maintenance shop in transmitter building no. ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

85. View of specialized maintenance shop in transmitter building no. 101, showing test bed with meters, power supplies, oscilloscopes, and other electronic test equipment. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

35. View of data and analysis console (DAC), located in ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

35. View of data and analysis console (DAC), located in MWOC facility in transmitter building no. 102, showing clock and missile impact predictor time. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

39. View of checkout indicator computer console for DR beams, ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

39. View of checkout indicator computer console for DR beams, TR chains, and special checkout target control located in CSMR in transmitter building no. 102. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

73. View of line of stainless steel coolant storage tanks ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

73. View of line of stainless steel coolant storage tanks for bi-sodium sulfate/water coolant solution at first floor of transmitter building no. 102. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

106. Air defense command "master plan", base map," RCA Service ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

106. Air defense command "master plan", base map," RCA Service Company tab no. F-1, sheet 1 of 2, dated 22 October, 1965. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

107. Air defense command "master plan, basic mission plan," RCA ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

107. Air defense command "master plan, basic mission plan," RCA Service Company tab no. F-1, sheet 2 of 2, dated 1 June, 1963. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

59. View of high voltage (4160 volts alternating current) electric ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

59. View of high voltage (4160 volts alternating current) electric load center and motor control center at mezzanine level in transmitter building no. 102. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

105. View of tracking radome replacement project, progress photograph, official ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

105. View of tracking radome replacement project, progress photograph, official photograph BMEWS Project by unknown photographer, 11 August 1981, clear as negative no. A-18562. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

The Ancona Early Warning Centre, Instrumentation and Continuous Monitoring of the Landslide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardellini, S.

2013-12-01

The 'Grande frana di Ancona' is an deep-seated landslide reactivated in 1982 after a long period of precipitation. The landslide involves clay and silty clay layers (Pliocene-Pleistocene), fractured with different OCR parameter, alternated with thin sand levels. Overlapped sliding zones are active (maximum depth: 100-120 m, maximum depth 1982 event is 75 m bgl). All the investigations aimed at the consolidation preliminary design in 2000, but the plan concluded that a final consolidation was impossible. Ancona Administration decided then to 'live with the landslide' reducing nevertheless the risk for the people living there. In 2002 a regional law was specifically issued for the people living in the landslide, to give Ancona Administration the responsibility of creating an Early Warning System and an Emergency Plan for people. It's active a surface monitoring system based on 7 total stations and 33 geodetic GPS integrated by a subsurface in place geotechnical system based on 3 DMS multiparametric columns installed down to 95 m depth. Surface Monitoring system The combination of the different instruments: GPS, Automatic Robotic Stations and the clinometric sensors allows us to monitor in the 3D (3D, X, Y, Z) a great number of points previously identified, to keep them under supervision with different measuring technical and from different control positions. The adoption of the geodetic GPS at dual frequency assure an high quality of the GPS measures, and a greater versatility at all the system. The measuring cycle is set up on 30 minutes, but in emergency or after a long rainy period, the system can operate on every points of the dual frequency GPS net also in Real Time RTK, and with the 7 Automatic Robotic Stations. Geotechnical monitoring (DMS) The in place Geotechnical Monitoring System DMS (patents and trade mark CSG srl -Italy) was installed in February 2009. It is made by n°3 Modular Dynamic System columns positioned inside borehole 100 m depth. DMS columns have been preassembled and installed in site with DMS REELER, connecting the required number of modules, each containing one or more geotechnical-geophysical sensors and the electronic boards for data collection and transmission. Transmission system The transmitted data coming from different sensors, are collected according to the two following procedures: a) I and II Level Net: data transmission in real time through a WiFi Standard HyperLan to the Town Monitoring Centre. b) III Level Net and, DMS system, wheatear station: data transmission through periodic GSM in CSD mode. Early Warning Management Inside the Monitoring Room of the Ancona Early Warning Centre a staff of 8 people control the monitoring data, verify the data flow, cross-check carefully the SMS warnings from the surface and borehole monitoring systems, verifying and comparing the data also with the rain events and potential triggers. Personal on duty control the data also during the night and weekend 365day/y. The staff was trained specifically for the overall instrumentation allowing in this way to be ready in case of transmission, maintenance to the software and remote control unit in all wheatear conditions.

Earthquake Early Warning: New Strategies for Seismic Hardware

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allardice, S.; Hill, P.

2017-12-01

Implementing Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) triggering algorithms into seismic networks has been a hot topic of discussion for some years now. With digitizer technology now available, such as the Güralp Minimus, with on average 40-60ms delay time (latency) from earthquake origin to issuing an alert the next step is to provide network operators with a simple interface for on board parameter calculations from a seismic station. A voting mechanism is implemented on board which mitigates the risk of false positives being communicated. Each Minimus can be configured to with a `score' from various sources i.e. Z channel on seismometer, N/S E/W channels on accelerometer and MEMS inside Minimus. If the score exceeds the set threshold then an alert is sent to the `Master Minimus'. The Master Minimus within the network will also be configured as to when the alert should be issued i.e. at least 3 stations must have triggered. Industry standard algorithms focus around the calculation of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), Peak Ground Velocity (PGV), Peak Ground Displacement (PGD) and C. Calculating these single station parameters on-board in order to stream only the results could help network operators with possible issues, such as restricted bandwidth. Developments on the Minimus allow these parameters to be calculated and distributed through Common Alert Protocol (CAP). CAP is the XML based data format used for exchanging and describing public warnings and emergencies. Whenever the trigger conditions are met the Minimus can send a signed UDP packet to the configured CAP receiver which can then send the alert via SMS, e-mail or CAP forwarding. Increasing network redundancy is also a consideration when developing these features, therefore the forwarding CAP message can be sent to multiple destinations. This allows for a hierarchical approach by which the single station (or network) parameters can be streamed to another Minimus, or data centre, or both, so that there is no one single point of failure. Developments on the Guralp Minimus to calculate these on board parameters which are capable of streaming single station parameters, accompanied with the ultra-low latency is the next generation of EEWS and Güralps contribution to the community.

Technical implementation plan for the ShakeAlert production system: an Earthquake Early Warning system for the West Coast of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Given, Douglas D.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Heaton, Thomas; Hauksson, Egill; Allen, Richard; Hellweg, Peggy; Vidale, John; Bodin, Paul

2014-01-01

Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems can provide as much as tens of seconds of warning to people and automated systems before strong shaking arrives. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners are developing such an EEW system, called ShakeAlert, for the West Coast of the United States. This document describes the technical implementation of that system, which leverages existing stations and infrastructure of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional networks to achieve this new capability. While significant progress has been made in developing the ShakeAlert early warning system, improved robustness of each component of the system and additional testing and certification are needed for the system to be reliable enough to issue public alerts. Major components of the system include dense networks of ground motion sensors, telecommunications from those sensors to central processing systems, algorithms for event detection and alert creation, and distribution systems to alert users. Capital investment costs for a West Coast EEW system are projected to be $38.3M, with additional annual maintenance and operations totaling $16.1M—in addition to current ANSS expenditures for earthquake monitoring. An EEW system is complementary to, but does not replace, other strategies to mitigate earthquake losses. The system has limitations: false and missed alerts are possible, and the area very near to an earthquake epicenter may receive little or no warning. However, such an EEW system would save lives, reduce injuries and damage, and improve community resilience by reducing longer-term economic losses for both public and private entities.

Physical Observations of the Tsunami during the September 8th 2017 Tehuantepec, Mexico Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez-Herrera, M. T.; Corona, N.; Ruiz-Angulo, A.; Melgar, D.; Zavala-Hidalgo, J.

2017-12-01

The September 8th 2017, Mw8.2 earthquake offshore Chiapas, Mexico, is the largest earthquake recorded history in Chiapas since 1902. It caused damage in the states of Oaxaca, Chiapas and Tabasco; it had more than 100 fatalities, over 1.5 million people were affected, and 41,000 homes were damaged in the state of Chiapas alone. This earthquake, a deep intraplate event on a normal fault on the oceanic subducting plate, generated a tsunami recorded at several tide gauge stations in Mexico and on the Pacific Ocean. Here we report the physical effects of the tsunami on the Chiapas coast and analyze the societal implications of this tsunami on the basis of our field observations. Tide gauge data indicate 11.3 and 8.2 cm of coastal subsidence at Salina Cruz and Puerto Chiapas stations. The associated tsunami waves were recorded first at Salina Cruz tide gauge station at 5:13 (GMT). We covered ground observations along 41 km of the coast of Chiapas, encompassing the sites with the highest projected wave heights based on the preliminary tsunami model (maximum tsunami amplitudes between -94.5 and -93.0 W). Runup and inundation distances were measured with an RTK GPS and using a Sokkia B40 level along 8 sites. We corrected runup data with estimated astronomical tide levels at the time of the tsunami. The tsunami occurred at low tide. The maximum runup was 3 m at Boca del Cielo, and maximum inundation distance was 190 m in Puerto Arista, corresponding to the coast directly opposite the epicenter and in the central sector of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. In general, our field data agree with the predicted results from the preliminary tsunami model. Tsunami scour and erosion was evident on the Chiapas coast. Tsunami deposits, mainly sand, reached up to 32 cm thickness thinning landwards up to 172 m distance. Even though the Mexican tsunami early warning system (CAT) issued several warnings, the tsunami arrival struck the Chiapas coast prior to the arrival of official warnings to the residents of small coastal towns, owing to the multi-ranked notification system. Thus, a tsunami early warning system with a direct warning to all coastal communities is needed. Some people evacuated under their own initiative, but some did not evacuate. Therefore, community-based education and awareness programs are needed.

A new Bayesian Inference-based Phase Associator for Earthquake Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meier, Men-Andrin; Heaton, Thomas; Clinton, John; Wiemer, Stefan

2013-04-01

State of the art network-based Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems can provide warnings for large magnitude 7+ earthquakes. Although regions in the direct vicinity of the epicenter will not receive warnings prior to damaging shaking, real-time event characterization is available before the destructive S-wave arrival across much of the strongly affected region. In contrast, in the case of the more frequent medium size events, such as the devastating 1994 Mw6.7 Northridge, California, earthquake, providing timely warning to the smaller damage zone is more difficult. For such events the "blind zone" of current systems (e.g. the CISN ShakeAlert system in California) is similar in size to the area over which severe damage occurs. We propose a faster and more robust Bayesian inference-based event associator, that in contrast to the current standard associators (e.g. Earthworm Binder), is tailored to EEW and exploits information other than only phase arrival times. In particular, the associator potentially allows for reliable automated event association with as little as two observations, which, compared to the ShakeAlert system, would speed up the real-time characterizations by about ten seconds and thus reduce the blind zone area by up to 80%. We compile an extensive data set of regional and teleseismic earthquake and noise waveforms spanning a wide range of earthquake magnitudes and tectonic regimes. We pass these waveforms through a causal real-time filterbank with passband filters between 0.1 and 50Hz, and, updating every second from the event detection, extract the maximum amplitudes in each frequency band. Using this dataset, we define distributions of amplitude maxima in each passband as a function of epicentral distance and magnitude. For the real-time data, we pass incoming broadband and strong motion waveforms through the same filterbank and extract an evolving set of maximum amplitudes in each passband. We use the maximum amplitude distributions to check whether the incoming waveforms are consistent with amplitude and frequency patterns of local earthquakes by means of a maximum likelihood approach. If such a single-station event likelihood is larger than a predefined threshold value we check whether there are neighboring stations that also have single-station event likelihoods above the threshold. If this is the case for at least one other station, we evaluate whether the respective relative arrival times are in agreement with a common earthquake origin (assuming a simple velocity model and using an Equal Differential Time location scheme). Additionally we check if there are stations where, given the preliminary location, observations would be expected but were not reported ("not-yet-arrived data"). Together, the single-station event likelihood functions and the location likelihood function constitute the multi-station event likelihood function. This function can then be combined with various types of prior information (such as station noise levels, preceding seismicity, fault proximity, etc.) to obtain a Bayesian posterior distribution, representing the degree of belief that the ensemble of the current real-time observations correspond to a local earthquake, rather than to some other signal source irrelevant for EEW. Additional to the reduction of the blind zone size, this approach facilitates the eventual development of an end-to-end probabilistic framework for an EEW system that provides systematic real-time assessment of the risk of false alerts, which enables end users of EEW to implement damage mitigation strategies only above a specified certainty level.

62. View of amplifiermodulator control system with power distribution panel ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

62. View of amplifier-modulator control system with power distribution panel on left, control power supply in middle, and amplifier modulator on right, second floor in transmitter building no. 102. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

75. Transmitter building no. 102, view of typical radio frequency ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

75. Transmitter building no. 102, view of typical radio frequency switching group for lower antenna A & B and upper antenna A & B and MIP/MWOC automated interface cabinet. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

28. View of data test area for DR data take ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

28. View of data test area for DR data take off set operators panel and cabinet at second floor of transmitter building no. 102 in MIP area. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

16. View of east side of transmitter building no. 102 ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

16. View of east side of transmitter building no. 102 looking south with TR radome in upper right of photograph and DR 2 antenna in left of photograph. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

55. View from ground level in building no. 105 showing ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

55. View from ground level in building no. 105 showing lower radar scanner switch with eighty-eight 1-1/2" diameter copper ion return RF balance tube systems. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

48. View of typical 90 degree elbow located at horizontal ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

48. View of typical 90 degree elbow located at horizontal corner with output (to scanner radar system control switch) waveguide on top and return wave on bottom of photograph. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

117. Back side technical facilities S.R. radar transmitter & computer ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

117. Back side technical facilities S.R. radar transmitter & computer building no. 102, "building sections - sheet I" - architectural, AS-BLT AW 35-46-04, sheet 12, dated 23 January, 1961. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

122. Back side technical facilities S.R. radar transmitter & computer ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

122. Back side technical facilities S.R. radar transmitter & computer building no. 102, section II "elevations & details" - structural, AS-BLT AW 35-46-04, sheet 73, dated 23 January, 1961. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

118. Back side technical facilities S.R. radar transmitter & computer ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

118. Back side technical facilities S.R. radar transmitter & computer building no. 102, "building sections - sheet I" - architectural, AS-BLT AW 35-46-04, sheet 13, dated 23 January, 1961. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

121. Back side technical facilities S.R. radar transmitter & computer ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

121. Back side technical facilities S.R. radar transmitter & computer building no. 102, section II "sections & elevations" - structural, AS-BLT AW 35-46-04, sheet 72, dated 23 January, 1961. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

67. Building 102, view of electronic switching amplifier (in retracted ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

67. Building 102, view of electronic switching amplifier (in retracted or open position) with video monitor mounted at top to monitor performance and condition of system in oil bath. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

68. Building 102, view of same system as in photograph ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

68. Building 102, view of same system as in photograph no. AK-30-A-67 except switching amplifier in closed position; note video cameras in foreground of photograph at bottom. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

Exploring the feasibility of a nationwide earthquake early warning system in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Picozzi, M.; Zollo, A.; Brondi, P.; Colombelli, S.; Elia, L.; Martino, C.

2015-04-01

When accompanied by appropriate training and preparedness of a population, Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) are effective and viable tools for the real-time reduction of societal exposure to seismic events in metropolitan areas. The Italian Accelerometric Network, RAN, which consists of about 500 stations installed over all the active seismic zones, as well as many cities and strategic infrastructures in Italy, has the potential to serve as a nationwide early warning system. In this work, we present a feasibility study for a nationwide EEWS in Italy obtained by the integration of the RAN and the software platform PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem (PRESTo). The performance of the RAN-PRESTo EEWS is first assessed by testing it on real strong motion recordings of 40 of the largest earthquakes that have occurred during the last 10 years in Italy. Furthermore, we extend the analysis to regions that did not experience earthquakes by considering a nationwide grid of synthetic sources capable of generating Gutenberg-Richter sequences corresponding to the one adopted by the seismic hazard map of the Italian territory. Our results indicate that the RAN-PRESTo EEWS could theoretically provide for higher seismic hazard areas reliable alert messages within about 5 to 10 s and maximum lead times of about 25 s. In case of large events (M > 6.5), this amount of lead time would be sufficient for taking basic protective measures (e.g., duck and cover, move away from windows or equipment) in tens to hundreds of municipalities affected by large ground shaking.

An Experimental Seismic Data and Parameter Exchange System for Tsunami Warning Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffmann, T. L.; Hanka, W.; Saul, J.; Weber, B.; Becker, J.; Heinloo, A.; Hoffmann, M.

2009-12-01

For several years GFZ Potsdam is operating a global earthquake monitoring system. Since the beginning of 2008, this system is also used as an experimental seismic background data center for two different regional Tsunami Warning Systems (TWS), the IOTWS (Indian Ocean) and the interim NEAMTWS (NE Atlantic and Mediterranean). The SeisComP3 (SC3) software, developed within the GITEWS (German Indian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning System) project, capable to acquire, archive and process real-time data feeds, was extended for export and import of individual processing results within the two clusters of connected SC3 systems. Therefore not only real-time waveform data are routed to the attached warning centers through GFZ but also processing results. While the current experimental NEAMTWS cluster consists of SC3 systems in six designated national warning centers in Europe, the IOTWS cluster presently includes seven centers, with another three likely to join in 2009/10. For NEAMTWS purposes, the GFZ virtual real-time seismic network (GEOFON Extended Virtual Network -GEVN) in Europe was substantially extended by adding many stations from Western European countries optimizing the station distribution. In parallel to the data collection over the Internet, a GFZ VSAT hub for secured data collection of the EuroMED GEOFON and NEAMTWS backbone network stations became operational and first data links were established through this backbone. For the Southeast Asia region, a VSAT hub has been established in Jakarta already in 2006, with some other partner networks connecting to this backbone via the Internet. Since its establishment, the experimental system has had the opportunity to prove its performance in a number of relevant earthquakes. Reliable solutions derived from a minimum of 25 stations were very promising in terms of speed. For important events, automatic alerts were released and disseminated by emails and SMS. Manually verified solutions are added as soon as they become available. The results are also promising in terms of accuracy since epicenter coordinates, depth and magnitude estimates were sufficiently accurate from the very beginning, and usually do not differ substantially from the final solutions. In summary, automatic seismic event processing has shown to work well as a first step for starting a Tsunami Warning process. However, for the secured assessment of the tsunami potential of a given event, 24/7-manned regional TWCs are mandatory for reliable manual verification of the automatic seismic results. At this time, GFZ itself provides manual verification only when staff is available, not on a 24/7 basis, while the actual national tsunami warning centers have all a reliable 24/7 service.

Capacity Building with CHIRPS Amidst a Station-Recording Crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, P.

2016-12-01

Station data are essential for improving the accuracy of satellite-derived rainfall products. However we face a severe reporting crisis as the number of available stations observations has declined precipitously. For example there were 2400 monthly stations available in Africa (excluding South Africa) in the 1980's, while at present there are about 500 stations (Figure 1). In this talk we describe how partnerships with regional and national collaborators can improve our collective ability to monitor food production and inform decision making. A high quality, long-term, high-resolution precipitation dataset is key for supporting agricultural drought monitoring, food security and early warning. Here we present the Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) v2.0, developed by scientists at the University of California, Santa Barbara and the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Center under the direction of Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). This quasi-global precipitation product is available at daily to seasonal time scales with a spatial resolution of 0.05° and a 1981 to near real-time period of record. The Climate Hazards Group (CHG) has developed an extensive database of in situ daily, pentadal, and monthly precipitation totals with over a billion daily observations worldwide. Under support from the USAID FEWS NET, CHG/USGS has developed a two way strategy for incorporating contributed station data while providing web-based visualization tools to partners in developing nations. For example, we are currently working with partners in Mexico (Conagua), Southern Africa (SASSCAL), Colombia (IDEAM), Somalia (SWALIM) and Ethiopia (NMA). These institutions provide in situ observations which enhance the CHIRPS. The CHIRPS is then placed in a web accessible geospatial database. Partners in these countries can then access and display this information using web based mapping tools. This provides a win-win collaboration, leading to improved globally accessible precipitation estimates and improved climate services in developing nations.

Successful ShakeAlert Performance for the Napa Quake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, R. M.; Given, D. D.; Heaton, T. H.; Vidale, J. E.

2014-12-01

ShakeAlert, the demonstration earthquake early warning system, developed by the USGS, UC Berkeley, Caltech, ETH, and the University of Washington, functioned as expected for the August 24, 2014, M6.0 Napa earthquake. The first ShakeAlert was generated by the ElarmS algorithm 5.1 sec after the origin time of the earthquake, and 3.3 sec after the P-wave arrived at the closest station 6.5 km from the epicenter. This initial alert, based on P-wave triggers from four stations, estimated the magnitude to be 5.7. The warning was received at the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory 5 seconds before the S-wave and about 10 sec prior to the onset of the strongest shaking. ShakeAlert beta-testers across the San Francisco Bay Area simultaneously received the alert, including the San Francisco 911 center with 8 sec warning, and the BART train system. BART has implemented an automated train-stopping system that was activated (although no trains were running at 3:20 am). With the available network geometry and communications, the blind zone of the first alert had a radius of 16 km. The four stations that contributed to the first alert all encapsulate data into 1-second packets, but the latency in transmitting data to the processing center ranged from 0.27 to 2.62 seconds. If all the stations were to deliver data in 0.27 seconds, then the alert would have been available 2.3 sec sooner and the blind zone would be reduced to about 8 km. This would also mean that the city of Napa would have received about 1 second of warning. The magnitude estimate and event location were accurate from the initial alert onwards. The magnitude estimate did first increase to 5.8 and then dip to 5.4 2.6 sec after the initial alert, stayed at that level for 2 sec, and then returned to 5.7. The final magnitude estimate was 6.0, consistent with the ANSS catalog.

Forecasting of wet snow avalanche activity: Proof of concept and operational implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gobiet, Andreas; Jöbstl, Lisa; Rieder, Hannes; Bellaire, Sascha; Mitterer, Christoph

2017-04-01

State-of-the-art tools for the operational assessment of avalanche danger include field observations, recordings from automatic weather stations, meteorological analyses and forecasts, and recently also indices derived from snowpack models. In particular, an index for identifying the onset of wet-snow avalanche cycles (LWCindex), has been demonstrated to be useful. However, its value for operational avalanche forecasting is currently limited, since detailed, physically based snowpack models are usually driven by meteorological data from automatic weather stations only and have therefore no prognostic ability. Since avalanche risk management heavily relies on timely information and early warnings, many avalanche services in Europe nowadays start issuing forecasts for the following days, instead of the traditional assessment of the current avalanche danger. In this context, the prognostic operation of detailed snowpack models has recently been objective of extensive research. In this study a new, observationally constrained setup for forecasting the onset of wet-snow avalanche cycles with the detailed snow cover model SNOWPACK is presented and evaluated. Based on data from weather stations and different numerical weather prediction models, we demonstrate that forecasts of the LWCindex as indicator for wet-snow avalanche cycles can be useful for operational warning services, but is so far not reliable enough to be used as single warning tool without considering other factors. Therefore, further development currently focuses on the improvement of the forecasts by applying ensemble techniques and suitable post processing approaches to the output of numerical weather prediction models. In parallel, the prognostic meteo-snow model chain is operationally used by two regional avalanche warning services in Austria since winter 2016/2017 for the first time. Experiences from the first operational season and first results from current model developments will be reported.

CISN ShakeAlert: Using early warnings for earthquakes in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vinci, M.; Hellweg, M.; Jones, L. M.; Khainovski, O.; Schwartz, K.; Lehrer, D.; Allen, R. M.; Neuhauser, D. S.

2009-12-01

Educated users who have developed response plans and procedures are just as important for an earthquake early warning (EEW) system as are the algorithms and computers that process the data and produce the warnings. In Japan, for example, the implementation of the EEW system which now provides advanced alerts of ground shaking included intense outreach efforts to both institutional and individual recipients. Alerts are now used in automatic control systems that stop trains, place sensitive equipment in safe mode and isolate hazards while the public takes cover. In California, the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) is now developing and implementing components of a prototype system for EEW, ShakeAlert. As this processing system is developed, we invite a suite of perspective users from critical industries and institutions throughout California to partner with us in developing useful ShakeAlert products and procedures. At the same time, we will support their efforts to determine and implement appropriate responses to an early warning of earthquake shaking. As a first step, in a collaboration with BART, we have developed a basic system allowing BART’s operation center to receive realtime ground shaking information from more than 150 seismic stations operating in the San Francisco Bay Area. BART engineers are implementing a display system for this information. Later phases will include the development of improved response procedures utilizing this information. We plan to continue this collaboration to include more sophisticated information from the prototype CISN ShakeAlert system.

Tsunami Early Warning for the Indian Ocean Region - Status and Outlook

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauterjung, Joern; Rudloff, Alexander; Muench, Ute; Gitews Project Team

2010-05-01

The German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) for the Indian Ocean region has gone into operation in Indonesia in November 2008. The system includes a seismological network, together with GPS stations and a network of GPS buoys additionally equipped with ocean bottom pressure sensors and a tide gauge network. The different sensor systems have, for the most part, been installed and now deliver respective data either online or interactively upon request to the Warning Centre in Jakarta. Before 2011, however, the different components requires further optimization and fine tuning, local personnel needs to be trained and eventual problems in the daily operation have to be dealt with. Furthermore a company will be founded in the near future, which will guarantee a sustainable maintenance and operation of the system. This concludes the transfer from a temporarily project into a permanent service. This system established in Indonesia differs from other Tsunami Warning Systems through its application of modern scientific methods and technologies. New procedures for the fast and reliable determination of strong earthquakes, deformation monitoring by GPS, the modeling of tsunamis and the assessment of the situation have been implemented in the Warning System architecture. In particular, the direct incorporation of different sensors provides broad information already at the early stages of Early Warning thus resulting in a stable system and minimizing breakdowns and false alarms. The warning system is designed in an open and modular structure based on the most recent developments and standards of information technology. Therefore, the system can easily integrate additional sensor components to be used for other multi-hazard purposes e.g. meteorological and hydrological events. Up to now the German project group is cooperating in the Indian Ocean region with Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Iran, Yemen, Tanzania and Kenya to set up the equipment primarily for seismological monitoring and data analysis. The automatic seismic data processing software SeisComP3, is not only operational in the warning centre in Jakarta and successfully used for rapid earthquake information, but also in different Indian Ocean rim countries like the once mentioned before as well as in India, Thailand and Pakistan. Close cooperation has been established with Australia, South Africa and India for the real-time exchange mainly of seismological and sea level data.

A Case Study of Array-based Early Warning System for Tsunami Offshore Ventura, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Y.; Meng, L.

2017-12-01

Extreme scenarios of M 7.5+ earthquakes on the Red Mountain and Pitas Point faults can potentially generate significant local tsunamis in southern California. The maximum water elevation could be as large as 10 m in the nearshore region of Oxnard and Santa Barbara. Recent development in seismic array processing enables rapid tsunami prediction and early warning based on the back-projection approach (BP). The idea is to estimate the rupture size by back-tracing the seismic body waves recorded by stations at local and regional distances. A simplified source model of uniform slip is constructed and used as an input for tsunami simulations that predict the tsunami wave height and arrival time. We demonstrate the feasibility of this approach in southern California by implementing it in a simulated real-time environment and applying to a hypothetical M 7.7 Dip-slip earthquake scenario on the Pitas Point fault. Synthetic seismograms are produced using the SCEC broadband platform based on the 3D SoCal community velocity model. We use S-wave instead of P-wave to avoid S-minus-P travel times shorter than rupture duration. Two clusters of strong-motion stations near Bakersfield and Palmdale are selected to determine the back-azimuth of the strongest high-frequency radiations (0.5-1 Hz). The back-azimuths of the two clusters are then intersected to locate the source positions. The rupture area is then approximated by enclosing these BP radiators with an ellipse or a polygon. Our preliminary results show that the extent of 1294 square kilometers rupture area and magnitude of 7.6 obtained by this approach is reasonably close to the 1849 square kilometers and 7.7 of the input model. The average slip of 7.3 m is then estimated according to the scaling relation between slip and rupture area, which is close to the actual average dislocation amount, 8.3 m. Finally, a tsunami simulation is conducted to assess the wave height and arrival time. The errors of -3 to +9 s in arrival time and 0.4 m in wave amplitude are reasonably small for early warning purpose. The blind zone for early warning is the region north of the outcrop of Pitas Point faults and has a scale close to the length of the fault, 43 km. The warning time is above 15 min in the nearshore region west of Cojo Bay Beach and south of Oxnard.

The GNSS-based Ground Tracking System (GTS) of GFZ; from GITEWS to PROTECTS and beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falck, Carsten; Merx, Alexander; Ramatschi, Markus

2013-04-01

Introduction An automatic system for the near real-time determination and visualization of ground motions, respectively co-seismic deformations of the Earth's surface, was developed by GFZ (German Research Centre for Geosciences) within the project GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System). The system is capable to deliver 3D-displacement vectors for locations with appropriate GPS-equipment in the vicinity of an earthquake's epicenter with a delay of only a few minutes. These vectors can help to assess the earthquake causing tectonic movements, which must be known to make reliable early warning predictions, e.g., concerning the generation of tsunami waves. The GTS (Ground Tracking System) has been integrated into InaTEWS (Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) and is in operation at the national warning center in Jakarta since November 2008. After the end of the project GITEWS GFZ continues to support the GTS in Indonesia within the frame of PROTECTS (Project for Training, Education and Consulting for Tsunami Early Warning Systems) and recently some new developments have been introduced. We now aim to make further use of the achievements made, e.g., by developing a license model for the GTS software package. Motivation After the Tsunami of 26th December 2004 the German government initiated the GITEWS project to develop the main components for a tsunami early warning system in Indonesia. The GFZ, as the consortial leader of GITEWS, had several work packages, most of them related to sensor systems. The geodetic branch (Department 1) of GFZ was assigned to develop a GNSS-based component, which since then is known as the GTS (Ground Tracking System). System benefit The ground motion information delivered by the GTS is a valuable source for a fast understanding of an earthquake's mechanism with a high relevance to assess the probability and magnitude of a potentially following tsunami. The system may detect highest displacement vector values, where seismic systems may tend to have problems with the determination of earthquake magnitudes, e.g. close to an earthquake epicenter. By considering displacement vectors the GTS may significantly support the decision finding process whether a tsunami has been generated. Brief system description The GTS may be divided into three main components: 1) The data acquisition component receives and manages data from GNSS-stations being transferred either in real-time, file based or both in parallel, including, e.g., format conversions and real-time spreading to other services. It also acquires the most actual auxiliary data needed for data processing, e.g., GNSS-satellite orbit data or, in case of internet problems, generates them from ephemeris broadcast transmissions, received by the connected GNSS-network stations. 2) The automatic GNSS-data processing unit calculates coordinate time series for all GNSS-stations providing data. The processing kernel is the robust working and well supported »Bernese GPS Software«, but wrapped into adaptations for a fully automatic near real-time processing. The final products of this unit are 3D-displacement vectors, which are calculated as differences to the mean coordinates of the latest timespan prior to an earthquake. 3) The graphical user interface (GUI) of the GTS supports both, a quick view for all staff members at the warning centre (24h/7d shifts) and deeper analysis by experts. The states of the connected GNSS-networks and of the automatic data processing system are displayed. Other views are available, e.g., to check intermediate processing steps or historic data. The GTS final products, the 3D-displacement vectors, are displayed as arrows and bars on a map view. The GUI system is implemented as a web-based application and allows all views to be displayed on many screens at the same time, even at remote locations. Acknowledgements The projects GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) and PROTECTS (Project for Training, Education and Consulting for Tsunami Early Warning System) are carried out by a large group of scientists and engineers from (GFZ) German Research Centre for Geosciences and its partners from the German Aerospace Centre (DLR), the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), the GKSS Research Centre, the Konsortium Deutsche Meeresforschung (KDM), the Leibniz Institute for Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), the United Nations University (UNU), the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), the German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) and other international partners. Funding is provided by the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF), Grant 03TSU01 and 03TSU07.

G-FAST Early Warning Potential for Great Earthquakes in Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crowell, B.; Schmidt, D. A.; Baker, B. I.; Bodin, P.; Vidale, J. E.

2016-12-01

The importance of GNSS-based earthquake early warning for modeling large earthquakes has been studied extensively over the past decade and several such systems are currently under development. In the Pacific Northwest, we have developed the G-FAST GNSS-based earthquake early warning module for eventual inclusion in the US West-Coast wide ShakeAlert system. We have also created a test system that allows us to replay past and synthetic earthquakes to identify problems with both the network architecture and the algorithms. Between 2010 and 2016, there have been seven M > 8 earthquakes across the globe, of which three struck offshore Chile; the 27 February 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, the 1 April 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique, and the 16 September 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel. Subsequent to these events, the Chilean national GNSS network operated by the Centro Sismologico Nacional (http://www.sismologia.cl/) greatly expanded to over 150 continuous GNSS stations, providing the best recordings of great earthquakes with GNSS outside of Japan. Here we report on retrospective G-FAST performance for those three great earthquakes in Chile. We discuss the interplay of location errors, latency, and data completeness with respect to the precision and timing of G-FAST earthquake source alerts as well as the computational demands of the system.

Earthquake Warning Performance in Vallejo for the South Napa Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wurman, G.; Price, M.

2014-12-01

In 2002 and 2003, Seismic Warning Systems, Inc. installed first-generation QuakeGuardTM earthquake warning devices at all eight fire stations in Vallejo, CA. These devices are designed to detect the P-wave of an earthquake and initiate predetermined protective actions if the impending shaking is estimated at approximately Modifed Mercalli Intensity V or greater. At the Vallejo fire stations the devices were set up to sound an audio alert over the public address system and to command the equipment bay doors to open. In August 2014, after more than 11 years of operating in the fire stations with no false alarms, the five units that were still in use triggered correctly on the MW 6.0 South Napa earthquake, less than 16 km away. The audio alert sounded in all five stations, providing fire fighters with 1.5 to 2.5 seconds of warning before the arrival of the S-wave, and the equipment bay doors opened in three of the stations. In one station the doors were disconnected from the QuakeGuard device, and another station lost power before the doors opened completely. These problems highlight just a small portion of the complexity associated with realizing actionable earthquake warnings. The issues experienced in this earthquake have already been addressed in subsequent QuakeGuard product generations, with downstream connection monitoring and backup power for critical systems. The fact that the fire fighters in Vallejo were afforded even two seconds of warning at these epicentral distances results from the design of the QuakeGuard devices, which focuses on rapid false positive rejection and ground motion estimates. We discuss the performance of the ground motion estimation algorithms, with an emphasis on the accuracy and timeliness of the estimates at close epicentral distances.

7. View of DR 3 antenna typical front stay concrete ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

7. View of DR 3 antenna typical front stay concrete showing embedment anchors, foundation steel base plate, vertical member with small diameter turnbuckles, antenna assembly in background, and story board for scale. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

120. Back side technical facilities S.R. radar transmitter & computer ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

120. Back side technical facilities S.R. radar transmitter & computer building no. 102, section II "foundation & first floor plan" - structural, AS-BLT AW 35-46-04, sheet 65, dated 23 January, 1961. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

119. Back side technical facilities S.R. radar transmitter & computer ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

119. Back side technical facilities S.R. radar transmitter & computer building no. 102, section I "tower plan, sections & details" - structural, AS-BLT AW 35-46-04, sheet 62, dated 23 January, 1961. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

25. Similar view of lobby area on first floor transmitter ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

25. Similar view of lobby area on first floor transmitter building no. 102 looking at door in photograph AK-30-A-24 in closed position showing locking system and restricted access notification. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

Application of τc*Pd for identifying damaging earthquakes for earthquake early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, P. L.; Lin, T. L.; Wu, Y. M.

2014-12-01

Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) is an effective approach to mitigate earthquake damage. In this study, we used the seismic record by the Kiban Kyoshin network (KiK-net), because it has dense station coverage and co-located borehole strong-motion seismometers along with the free-surface strong-motion seismometers. We used inland earthquakes with moment magnitude (Mw) from 5.0 to 7.3 between 1998 and 2012. We choose 135 events and 10950 strong ground accelerograms recorded by the 696 strong ground accelerographs. Both the free-surface and the borehole data are used to calculate τc and Pd, respectively. The results show that τc*Pd has a good correlation with PGV and is a robust parameter for assessing the potential of damaging earthquake. We propose the value of τc*Pd determined from seconds after the arrival of P wave could be a threshold for the on-site type of EEW.

CISN ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System Monitoring Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henson, I. H.; Allen, R. M.; Neuhauser, D. S.

2015-12-01

CISN ShakeAlert is a prototype earthquake early warning system being developed and tested by the California Integrated Seismic Network. The system has recently been expanded to support redundant data processing and communications. It now runs on six machines at three locations with ten Apache ActiveMQ message brokers linking together 18 waveform processors, 12 event association processes and 4 Decision Module alert processes. The system ingests waveform data from about 500 stations and generates many thousands of triggers per day, from which a small portion produce earthquake alerts. We have developed interactive web browser system-monitoring tools that display near real time state-of-health and performance information. This includes station availability, trigger statistics, communication and alert latencies. Connections to regional earthquake catalogs provide a rapid assessment of the Decision Module hypocenter accuracy. Historical performance can be evaluated, including statistics for hypocenter and origin time accuracy and alert time latencies for different time periods, magnitude ranges and geographic regions. For the ElarmS event associator, individual earthquake processing histories can be examined, including details of the transmission and processing latencies associated with individual P-wave triggers. Individual station trigger and latency statistics are available. Detailed information about the ElarmS trigger association process for both alerted events and rejected events is also available. The Google Web Toolkit and Map API have been used to develop interactive web pages that link tabular and geographic information. Statistical analysis is provided by the R-Statistics System linked to a PostgreSQL database.

On the importance of risk knowledge for an end-to-end tsunami early warning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, Joachim; Strunz, Günter; Riedlinger, Torsten; Mück, Matthias; Wegscheider, Stephanie; Zosseder, Kai; Steinmetz, Tilmann; Gebert, Niklas; Anwar, Herryal

2010-05-01

Warning systems commonly use information provided by networks of sensors able to monitor and detect impending disasters, aggregate and condense these information to provide reliable information to a decision maker whether to warn or not, disseminates the warning message and provide this information to people at risk. Ultimate aim is to enable those in danger to make decisions (e.g. initiate protective actions for buildings) and to take action to safe their lives. This involves very complex issues when considering all four elements of early warning systems (UNISDR-PPEW), namely (1) risk knowledge, (2) monitoring and warning service, (3) dissemination and communication, (4) response capability with the ultimate aim to gain as much time as possible to empower individuals and communities to act in an appropriate manner to reduce injury, loss of life, damage to property and the environment and loss of livelihoods. Commonly most warning systems feature strengths and main attention on the technical/structural dimension (monitoring & warning service, dissemination tools) with weaknesses and less attention on social/cultural dimension (e.g. human response capabilities, defined warning chain to and knowing what to do by the people). Also, the use of risk knowledge in early warning most often is treated in a theoretical manner (knowing that it is somehow important), yet less in an operational, practical sense. Risk assessments and risk maps help to motivate people, prioritise early warning system needs and guide preparations for response and disaster prevention activities. Beyond this risk knowledge can be seen as a tie between national level early warning and community level reaction schemes. This presentation focuses on results, key findings and lessons-learnt related to tsunami risk assessment in the context of early warning within the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning) project. Here a novel methodology reflecting risk information needs in the early warning context has been worked out. The generated results contribute significantly in the fields of (1) warning decision and warning levels, (2) warning dissemination and warning message content, (3) early warning chain planning, (4) increasing response capabilities and protective systems, (5) emergency relief and (6) enhancing communities' awareness and preparedness towards tsunami threats. Additionally examples will be given on the potentials of an operational use of risk information in early warning systems as first experiences exist for the tsunami early warning center in Jakarta, Indonesia. Beside this the importance of linking national level early warning information with tsunami risk information available at the local level (e.g. linking warning message information on expected intensity with respective tsunami hazard zone maps at community level for effective evacuation) will be demonstrated through experiences gained in three pilot areas in Indonesia. The presentation seeks to provide new insights on benefits using risk information in early warning and will provide further evidence that practical use of risk information is an important and indispensable component of end-to-end early warning.

Development of Innovative Technology to Expand Precipitation Observations in Satellite Precipitation Validation in Under-developed Data-sparse Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucera, P. A.; Steinson, M.

2016-12-01

Accurate and reliable real-time monitoring and dissemination of observations of precipitation and surface weather conditions in general is critical for a variety of research studies and applications. Surface precipitation observations provide important reference information for evaluating satellite (e.g., GPM) precipitation estimates. High quality surface observations of precipitation, temperature, moisture, and winds are important for applications such as agriculture, water resource monitoring, health, and hazardous weather early warning systems. In many regions of the World, surface weather station and precipitation gauge networks are sparsely located and/or of poor quality. Existing stations have often been sited incorrectly, not well-maintained, and have limited communications established at the site for real-time monitoring. The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), with support from USAID, has started an initiative to develop and deploy low-cost weather instrumentation including tipping bucket and weighing-type precipitation gauges in sparsely observed regions of the world. The goal is to improve the number of observations (temporally and spatially) for the evaluation of satellite precipitation estimates in data-sparse regions and to improve the quality of applications for environmental monitoring and early warning alert systems on a regional to global scale. One important aspect of this initiative is to make the data open to the community. The weather station instrumentation have been developed using innovative new technologies such as 3D printers, Raspberry Pi computing systems, and wireless communications. An initial pilot project have been implemented in the country of Zambia. This effort could be expanded to other data sparse regions around the globe. The presentation will provide an overview and demonstration of 3D printed weather station development and initial evaluation of observed precipitation datasets.

95. View of transmitter building no. 102 second floor view ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

95. View of transmitter building no. 102 second floor view of capacitor vaults, waveguides and combiner bifurcation, Official photograph BMEWS Project by C. Henry, 6 January 1962, Photographic Services, Riverton, NJ, BMEWS, clear as negative no. A-3541. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

41. View of electro/mechanical fiber optic system panel in transmitter ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

41. View of electro/mechanical fiber optic system panel in transmitter building no. 102. Images projected to screen (panel at upper left) are projected to back side of screen located in MWOC to display changing information. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

5. View of middle DR 2 antenna with DR 1 ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

5. View of middle DR 2 antenna with DR 1 antenna in background. Photograph shows on left side at bottom foundation berm and along right side bottom stanchion concrete foundations at bottom structural steel assembly. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

15. View of southeasterly side of transmitter building no. 102 ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

15. View of southeasterly side of transmitter building no. 102 with TR in middle and small satcom communication dome lower right. Note site well system building to lower right of transmitter building no. 102 southeast corner. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

11. View of south side of radar scanner building no. ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

11. View of south side of radar scanner building no. 104 showing personnel exit door at side building, showing DR 1 antenna from oblique angle on foundation berm with DR 2 and DR 3 antennae in background. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

12. View from east side of corner of transmitter building ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

12. View from east side of corner of transmitter building no. 102 looking over top of utilidor passageway link, DR 2 antenna in background left and abandoned radome on top of transmitter building no. 101. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

57. Building 105, another view of ion return RF balance ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

57. Building 105, another view of ion return RF balance tube system, and beginning of waveguide return connections to right of photograph; note bottoms of waveguide systems around circumference of scanner switch in upper part of photograph. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

51. View of upper radar scanner switch in radar scanner ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

51. View of upper radar scanner switch in radar scanner building 105 from upper catwalk level showing emanating waveguides from upper switch (upper one-fourth of photograph) and emanating waveguides from lower radar scanner switch in vertical runs. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

38. View of DRS 1, 2, and 3 (structure nos. ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

38. View of DRS 1, 2, and 3 (structure nos. 735, 736, and 737) console fault locator for beam power status, radio frequency (RF) and intermediate frequency (IF) fault conditions, RF switches status and TR status. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

31. View of mezzanine floor level in transmitter building no. ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

31. View of mezzanine floor level in transmitter building no. 102 showing various electronic central indicator panel to control building air conditioning, steam pressure, supply temperature, discharge temperature, supply pressure, transformer vault status, and radome conditioning system. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

98. View of IBM digital computer model 7090 magnet core ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

98. View of IBM digital computer model 7090 magnet core installation. ITT Artic Services, Inc., Official photograph BMEWS Site II, Clear, AK, by unknown photographer, 17 September 1965. BMEWS, clear as negative no. A-6606. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

Forecasting infectious disease emergence subject to seasonal forcing.

PubMed

Miller, Paige B; O'Dea, Eamon B; Rohani, Pejman; Drake, John M

2017-09-06

Despite high vaccination coverage, many childhood infections pose a growing threat to human populations. Accurate disease forecasting would be of tremendous value to public health. Forecasting disease emergence using early warning signals (EWS) is possible in non-seasonal models of infectious diseases. Here, we assessed whether EWS also anticipate disease emergence in seasonal models. We simulated the dynamics of an immunizing infectious pathogen approaching the tipping point to disease endemicity. To explore the effect of seasonality on the reliability of early warning statistics, we varied the amplitude of fluctuations around the average transmission. We proposed and analyzed two new early warning signals based on the wavelet spectrum. We measured the reliability of the early warning signals depending on the strength of their trend preceding the tipping point and then calculated the Area Under the Curve (AUC) statistic. Early warning signals were reliable when disease transmission was subject to seasonal forcing. Wavelet-based early warning signals were as reliable as other conventional early warning signals. We found that removing seasonal trends, prior to analysis, did not improve early warning statistics uniformly. Early warning signals anticipate the onset of critical transitions for infectious diseases which are subject to seasonal forcing. Wavelet-based early warning statistics can also be used to forecast infectious disease.

Source modeling and inversion with near real-time GPS: a GITEWS perspective for Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babeyko, A. Y.; Hoechner, A.; Sobolev, S. V.

2010-07-01

We present the GITEWS approach to source modeling for the tsunami early warning in Indonesia. Near-field tsunami implies special requirements to both warning time and details of source characterization. To meet these requirements, we employ geophysical and geological information to predefine a maximum number of rupture parameters. We discretize the tsunamigenic Sunda plate interface into an ordered grid of patches (150×25) and employ the concept of Green's functions for forward and inverse rupture modeling. Rupture Generator, a forward modeling tool, additionally employs different scaling laws and slip shape functions to construct physically reasonable source models using basic seismic information only (magnitude and epicenter location). GITEWS runs a library of semi- and fully-synthetic scenarios to be extensively employed by system testing as well as by warning center personnel teaching and training. Near real-time GPS observations are a very valuable complement to the local tsunami warning system. Their inversion provides quick (within a few minutes on an event) estimation of the earthquake magnitude, rupture position and, in case of sufficient station coverage, details of slip distribution.

Application of Satellite information (JASON-2) in improvement of Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Service in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hossain, M. A.; Anderson, E. R.; Bhuiyan, M. A.; Hossain, F.; Shah-Newaz, S. M.

2014-12-01

Bangladesh is the lowest riparian of the huge system of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) basins, second to that of Amazan, with 1.75 million sq-km catchment area, only 7% is inside Bangladesh. High inflow from GBM associated with the intense rainfall is the source of flood in Bangladesh. Flood Forecasting and Early Warning (FFEW) is the mandate and responsibility of Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) and Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC) under BWDB has been carrying out this responsibility since 1972 and operational on 7-days a week during monsoon (May to October). FFEW system started with few hours lead time has been upgraded up to to 5-days with reasonable accuracy. At FFWC numerical Hydrodynamic model is used for generating water level (WL) forecast upto 5-days at 54 points on 29 rivers based on real-time observed WL of 83 and rainfall of 56 stations with boundary estimationa on daily basis. Main challenge of this system is the boundary estimation is the limited upstream data of the transboundary rivers, obstacle for increasing lead-time for FFEW. The satellite based upper catchment data may overcome this limitation. Recent NASA-French joint Satellite mission JASON-2 records Water Elevation (WE) and it may be used within 24 hours. Using JASON-2 recorded WE data of 4 and 3 virtual stations on the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers , respectively (upper catchment), a new methodology has been developed for increasing lead time of forecast. Correlation between the JASON-2 recorded WE on the virtual stations at the upper catchment and WL of 2 dominating boundary stations at model boundary on the Ganges and Brahmaputra has been derived for generating WL forecast at those 2 boundary stations, which used as input in model. FFWC has started experimental 8-days lead-time WL forecast at 09 stations (5 in Brahmaputra and 4 in Ganges) using generated boundary data and regularly updating the results in the website. The trend of the forecasted WL using JASON-2 data is similar to those upto 5-days forecast generated in the existing system. This is a new approach in FFEW in Bangladesh where boundary estimation becomes possible using JASON-2 observed WE data of the Transboundary rivers. There is scope of further development of this system along with increase of lead time. Reference: www.ffwc.gov.bd

Enhanced early warning system impact on nursing practice: A phenomenological study.

PubMed

Burns, Kathleen A; Reber, Tracey; Theodore, Karen; Welch, Brenda; Roy, Debra; Siedlecki, Sandra L

2018-05-01

To determine how an enhanced early warning system has an impact on nursing practice. Early warning systems score physiologic measures and alert nurses to subtle changes in patient condition. Critics of early warning systems have expressed concern that nurses would rely on a score rather than assessment skills and critical thinking to determine the need for intervention. Enhancing early warning systems with innovative technology is still in its infancy, so the impact of an enhanced early warning system on nursing behaviours or practice has not yet been studied. Phenomenological design. Scripted, semistructured interviews were conducted in September 2015 with 25 medical/surgical nurses who used the enhanced early warning system. Data were analysed using thematic analysis techniques (coding and bracketing). Emerging themes were examined for relationships and a model describing the enhanced early warning system experience was developed. Nurses identified awareness leading to investigation and ease of prioritization as the enhanced early warning system's most important impact on their nursing practice. There was also an impact on organizational culture, with nurses reporting improved communication, increased collaboration, increased accountability and proactive responses to early changes in patient condition. Rather than hinder critical thinking, as many early warning systems' critics claim, nurses in this study found that the enhanced early warning system increased their awareness of changes in a patient's condition, resulting in earlier response and reassessment times. It also had an impact on the organization by improving communication and collaboration and supporting a culture of proactive rather than reactive response to early signs of deterioration. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Emergency egress requirements for caution and warning, logistics, maintenance, and assembly stage MB-6 of Space Station Freedom

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Paul S.

1992-01-01

The safety and survival of the crewmembers has been the prime concern of NASA. Previous studies have been conducted mainly for emergencies occurring during the operating mode of the fully assembled Station. The present study was conducted to evaluate the emergency requirements for the caution and warning, logistics, maintenance, and assembly stage MB-6 of the Station in space. Effective caution and warning is essential to achieve safe egress in emergencies. In order to survive a long period in space, the safety and emergency requirements for maintenance, logistics, and extravehicular assembly operation in space must be met.

Establishment and Practical Application of Flood Warning Stage in Taiwan's River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Sheng-Hsueh; Chia Yeh, Keh-

2017-04-01

In the face of extreme flood events or the possible impact of climate change, non-engineering disaster prevention and early warning work is particularly important. Taiwan is an island topography with more than 3,900 meters of high mountains. The length of the river is less than 100 kilometers. Most of the watershed catchment time is less than 24 hours, which belongs to the river with steep slope and rapid flood. Every year in summer and autumn, several typhoon events invade Taiwan. Typhoons often result in rainfall events in excess of 100 mm/hr or 250 mm/3hr. In the face of Taiwan's terrain and extreme rainfall events, flooding is difficult to avoid. Therefore, most of the river has embankment protection, so that people do not have to face every year flooding caused by economic and life and property losses. However, the river embankment protection is limited. With the increase of the hydrological data, the design criteria for the embankment protection standards in the past was 100 year of flood return period and is now gradually reduced to 25 or 50 year of flood return period. The river authorities are not easy to rise the existing embankment height. The safety of the river embankment in Taiwan is determined by the establishment of the flood warning stage to cope with the possible increase in annual floods and the impact of extreme hydrological events. The flood warning stage is equal to the flood control elevation minus the flood rise rate multiply by the flood early warning time. The control elevation can be the top of the embankment, the design flood level of the river, the embankment gap of the river section, the height of the bridge beam bottom, etc. The flood rise rate is consider the factors such as hydrological stochastic and uncertain rainfall and the effect of flood discharge operation on the flood in the watershed catchment area. The maximum value of the water level difference between the two hours or five hours before the peak value of the analysis result is decided by this rate. The flood early warning time is divided into two levels, the first level is 2 hours, evacuation time for the public, the second level is 5 hours for the implementation of unit preparation time. Finally, The flood warning stages are practical application in 20 water level stations have been incorporated into the flood early warning system of the Danshuei river basin in Taiwan.

Disaster warning satellite study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1971-01-01

The Disaster Warning Satellite System is described. It will provide NOAA with an independent, mass communication system for the purpose of warning the public of impending disaster and issuing bulletins for corrective action to protect lives and property. The system consists of three major segments. The first segment is the network of state or regional offices that communicate with the central ground station; the second segment is the satellite that relays information from ground stations to home receivers; the third segment is composed of the home receivers that receive information from the satellite and provide an audio output to the public. The ground stations required in this system are linked together by two, separate, voice bandwidth communication channels on the Disaster Warning Satellites so that a communications link would be available in the event of disruption of land line service.

Monitoring and Early Warning of the 2012 Preonzo Catastrophic Rockslope Failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loew, Simon; Gschwind, Sophie; Keller-Signer, Alexandra; Valenti, Giorgio

2015-04-01

In this contribution we describe the accelerated creep stage and early warning system of a 210'000 m3 rock slope failure that occurred in May 2012 above the village of Preonzo (Swiss Alps). The very rapid failure occurred from a larger and retrogressive instability in high-grade metamorphic ortho-gneisses and amphibolites with a total volume of about 350'000 m3 located at an alpine meadow called Alpe di Roscioro. This instability showed clearly visible signs of movements since 1989 and accelerated creep with significant hydro-mechanical forcing since about 1999. Because the instability at Preonzo threatened a large industrial facility and important transport routes a cost-effective early warning system was installed in 2010. The alarm thresholds for pre-alarm, general public alarm and evacuation were derived from 10 years of continuous displacement monitoring with crack extensometers and an automated total station. These thresholds were successfully applied to evacuate the industrial facility and close important roads a few days before the catastrophic slope failure of May 15th, 2012. The rock slope failure occurred in two events, exposing a planar rupture plane dipping 42° and generating deposits in the mid-slope portion with a travel angle of 38°. Two hours after the second rockslide, the fresh colluvial deposits became reactivated in a devastating de-bris avalanche reaching the foot of the slope.

A new, ultra-low latency data transmission protocol for Earthquake Early Warning Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hill, P.; Hicks, S. P.; McGowan, M.

2016-12-01

One measure used to assess the performance of Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) is the delay time between earthquake origin and issued alert. EEWS latency is dependent on a number of sources (e.g. P-wave propagation, digitisation, transmission, receiver processing, triggering, event declaration). Many regional seismic networks use the SEEDlink protocol; however, packet size is fixed to 512-byte miniSEED records, resulting in transmission latencies of >0.5 s. Data packetisation is seen as one of the main sources of delays in EEWS (Brown et al., 2011). Optimising data-logger and telemetry configurations is a cost-effective strategy to improve EEWS alert times (Behr et al., 2015). Digitisers with smaller, selectable packets can result in faster alerts (Sokos et al., 2016). We propose a new seismic protocol for regional seismic networks benefiting low-latency applications such as EEWS. The protocol, based on Güralp's existing GDI-link format is an efficient and flexible method to exchange data between seismic stations and data centers for a range of network configurations. The main principle is to stream data sample-by-sample instead of fixed-length packets to minimise transmission latency. Self-adaptive packetisation with compression maximises available telemetry bandwidth. Highly flexible metadata fields within GDI-link are compatible with existing miniSEED definitions. Data is sent as integers or floats, supporting a wide range of data formats, including discrete parameters such as Pd & τC for on-site earthquake early warning. Other advantages include: streaming station state-of-health information, instrument control, support of backfilling and fail-over strategies during telemetry outages. Based on tests carried out on the Güralp Minimus data-logger, we show our new protocol can reduce transmission latency to as low as 1 ms. The low-latency protocol is currently being implemented with common processing packages. The results of these tests will help to highlight latency levels that can be achieved with next-generation EEWS.

Landslide Geohazard Monitoring, Early Warning and Stabilization Control Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bednarczyk, Zbigniew

2014-03-01

This paper is a presentation of landslide monitoring, early warning and remediation methods recommended for the Polish Carpathians. Instrumentation included standard and automatic on-line measurements with the real-time transfer of data to an Internet web server. The research was funded through EU Innovative Economy Programme and also by the SOPO Landslide Counteraction Project. The landslides investigated were characterized by relatively low rates of the displacements. These ranged from a few millimetres to several centimetres per year. Colluviums of clayey flysch deposits were of a soil-rock type with a very high plasticity and moisture content. The instrumentation consisted of 23 standard inclinometers set to depths of 5-21 m. The starting point of monitoring measurements was in January 2006. These were performed every 1-2 months over the period of 8 years. The measurements taken detected displacements from several millimetres to 40 cm set at a depth of 1-17 m. The modern, on-line monitoring and early warning system was installed in May 2010. The system is the first of its kind in Poland and only one of several such real-time systems in the world. The installation was working with the Local Road Authority in Gorlice. It contained three automatic field stations for investigation of landslide parameters to depths of 12-16 m and weather station. In-place tilt transducers and innovative 3D continuous inclinometer systems with sensors located every 0.5 m were used. It has the possibility of measuring a much greater range of movements compared to standard systems. The conventional and real-time data obtained provided a better recognition of the triggering parameters and the control of geohazard stabilizations. The monitoring methods chosen supplemented by numerical modelling could lead to more reliable forecasting of such landslides and could thus provide better control and landslide remediation possibilities also to stabilization works which prevent landslides.

47 CFR 87.483 - Audio visual warning systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 5 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Audio visual warning systems. 87.483 Section 87... AVIATION SERVICES Stations in the Radiodetermination Service § 87.483 Audio visual warning systems. An audio visual warning system (AVWS) is a radar-based obstacle avoidance system. AVWS activates...

44. Building 102, view from mezzanine looking down to first ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

44. Building 102, view from mezzanine looking down to first floor showing Klystron tube equipment vaults with dual waveguides leaving top of vaults through bifurcation combiner system at start of waveguides; note tops of capacitor vaults along photograph to left. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

PAVE PAWS Early Warning Radar Operation Cape Cod Air Force Station, MA. Record of Decision

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-01

Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) C95.1-1999. Accordingly, the highest measurement was obtained directly in front of the feedhorn (i.e...waveform characterization of the Cape Cod AFS Pave PAWS radar. The data acquired during the Phase IV survey indicated that the electric fields produced...level observed among the ambient sites. During this survey, peak/average power density measurements and peak/average electric field measurements

27. View of entry door to vestibule to MWOC entry ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

27. View of entry door to vestibule to MWOC entry door in transmitter building no. 102 (note coded key pad to left and intercom phone on left) and door to the central systems monitor room (CSMR) to right (out of sight). - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

4. View of northerly DR 3 antenna looking north 35 ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

4. View of northerly DR 3 antenna looking north 35 degrees west and showing radar scanner building no. 106 east face through antenna and partial view of satcom communication dome (attached to radar transmitter building 102) in left side of photograph. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

8. View of DR 3 antenna showing lower front connector, ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

8. View of DR 3 antenna showing lower front connector, third from left vertical member at first level above foundation level, showing small diameter turnbuckle stays, vertical member with flange connection, and various struts and connectors with antenna assembly in background. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

14. View of southerly side of transmitter building no. 101 ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

14. View of southerly side of transmitter building no. 101 from west looking easterly showing radar scanner building no. 104 to right with passageway link between, abandoned radome on top of transmitter building no. 101 and DR 1 antenna in background. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

97. View of International Business Machine (IBM) digital computer model ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

97. View of International Business Machine (IBM) digital computer model 7090 magnetic core installation, international telephone and telegraph (ITT) Artic Services Inc., Official photograph BMEWS site II, Clear, AK, by unknown photographer, 17 September 1965, BMEWS, clear as negative no. A-6604. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

47. View of "dry air inlets" to waveguides entering scanner ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

47. View of "dry air inlets" to waveguides entering scanner building 105. Dried air is generated under pressure by Ingersoll-Rand dehumidified/dessicator and compressor system. View is at entrance from passageway that links into corner of scanner building. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

Application of Seismic Array Processing to Tsunami Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, C.; Meng, L.

2015-12-01

Tsunami wave predictions of the current tsunami warning systems rely on accurate earthquake source inversions of wave height data. They are of limited effectiveness for the near-field areas since the tsunami waves arrive before data are collected. Recent seismic and tsunami disasters have revealed the need for early warning to protect near-source coastal populations. In this work we developed the basis for a tsunami warning system based on rapid earthquake source characterisation through regional seismic array back-projections. We explored rapid earthquake source imaging using onshore dense seismic arrays located at regional distances on the order of 1000 km, which provides faster source images than conventional teleseismic back-projections. We implement this method in a simulated real-time environment, and analysed the 2011 Tohoku earthquake rupture with two clusters of Hi-net stations in Kyushu and Northern Hokkaido, and the 2014 Iquique event with the Earthscope USArray Transportable Array. The results yield reasonable estimates of rupture area, which is approximated by an ellipse and leads to the construction of simple slip models based on empirical scaling of the rupture area, seismic moment and average slip. The slip model is then used as the input of the tsunami simulation package COMCOT to predict the tsunami waves. In the example of the Tohoku event, the earthquake source model can be acquired within 6 minutes from the start of rupture and the simulation of tsunami waves takes less than 2 min, which could facilitate a timely tsunami warning. The predicted arrival time and wave amplitude reasonably fit observations. Based on this method, we propose to develop an automatic warning mechanism that provides rapid near-field warning for areas of high tsunami risk. The initial focus will be Japan, Pacific Northwest and Alaska, where dense seismic networks with the capability of real-time data telemetry and open data accessibility, such as the Japanese HiNet (>800 instruments) and the Earthscope USArray Transportable Array (~400 instruments), are established.

The Role of North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) In Military Cyber Attack Warning

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-01

WARNING MISSIONS .....................................5  1.  Early North American Air Defense Warning ...................................5  2...BLANK xi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.   North American Distant Early Warning (DEW) Site. .......................................6  Figure 2.   Original... Early Warning (AEW) Aircraft .........................................11  Figure 7.   Headquarters NORAD and USNORTHCOM

Integrating Low-Cost Mems Accelerometer Mini-Arrays (mama) in Earthquake Early Warning Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nof, R. N.; Chung, A. I.; Rademacher, H.; Allen, R. M.

2016-12-01

Current operational Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) acquire data with networks of single seismic stations, and compute source parameters assuming earthquakes to be point sources. For large events, the point-source assumption leads to an underestimation of magnitude, and the use of single stations leads to large uncertainties in the locations of events outside the network. We propose the use of mini-arrays to improve EEWS. Mini-arrays have the potential to: (a) estimate reliable hypocentral locations by beam forming (FK-analysis) techniques; (b) characterize the rupture dimensions and account for finite-source effects, leading to more reliable estimates for large magnitudes. Previously, the high price of multiple seismometers has made creating arrays cost-prohibitive. However, we propose setting up mini-arrays of a new seismometer based on low-cost (<$150), high-performance MEMS accelerometer around conventional seismic stations. The expected benefits of such an approach include decreasing alert-times, improving real-time shaking predictions and mitigating false alarms. We use low-resolution 14-bit Quake Catcher Network (QCN) data collected during Rapid Aftershock Mobilization Program (RAMP) in Christchurch, NZ following the M7.1 Darfield earthquake in September 2010. As the QCN network was so dense, we were able to use small sub-array of up to ten sensors spread along a maximum area of 1.7x2.2 km2 to demonstrate our approach and to solve for the BAZ of two events (Mw4.7 and Mw5.1) with less than ±10° error. We will also present the new 24-bit device details, benchmarks, and real-time measurements.

NOAA/National Weather Service Support in Response to the Threat of Debris Flows from the 2009 Station Fire in Los Angeles County: Lessons Learned in Hazard Communications and Public Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, M.; Laber, J. L.; Boldt, E.

2010-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) have developed a prototype debris flow early warning system for Southern California. The system uses USGS-defined rainfall rate thresholds for debris flows and burn area hazard maps to protect interests in and near burn areas of damaging and potentially deadly debris flows. Although common throughout Southern California, as witnessed by the December 25, 2003 storm in which sixteen people were swept to their deaths by debris flows generated from a recent burn area near Devore, debris flows are commonly misunderstood by the public. They are often perceived as rare events, are difficult to warn for with sufficient lead time, and present unique challenges when communicating proper calls to action to best save lives and property. Many improvements to the system have been realized since the project’s inception in 2005, including using more refined rainfall rate thresholds, use of burn area hazard maps, and the establishment of a tiered system to categorize the potential severity of flash floods and debris flows. These efforts have collectively resulted in a reduction of warning false alarms. However, the massive 400,000 hectare 2009 Station burn area in the Angeles National Forest of Los Angeles County has created numerous challenges to the early warning system. The geology of the area burned is highly susceptible to debris flows, due in part to the burn severity, soil types and steep slopes. Most importantly, the burn area is adjacent to and uphill of the highly populated lower foothills of the San Fernando Valley. NOAA/NWS and the USGS have thus worked closely with local response and preparedness agencies to analyze and communicate the threat and assist in developing a unified command response plan in preparation for flash flood and debris flows from this burn area. The early warning system was put to the ultimate test on February 6, 2010 when intense rainfall over the burn area produced very damaging but fortunately nonfatal flash flooding and debris flows. Unfortunately public and local agency response to NWS forecasts, watches, and warnings issued for this event was minimal. Possible causes of, and actions needed to improve upon, this minimal response are examined, including 1) complacency due to previous watch and warning false alarms, 2) underestimating the hazard threat due to local residents having not personally experienced a severe debris flow event in recent history if ever, 3) misinterpretation of NWS point precipitation forecasts and current limits of predictability related to forecasting specific locations and amounts of intense rainfall beyond 12-24 hours, 4) the challenges of ensuring NWS information is consistently received and interpreted among the multiple agencies and jurisdictions of the unified command, and 5) the likelihood that most people did not hear NWS warnings due to the event taking place late at night. Also examined are proper calls to action to protect life and property at a time when evacuations may put people in harm's way.

ARC-2007-ACD07-0140-001

NASA Image and Video Library

2007-07-31

David L. Iverson of NASA Ames Research center, Moffett Field, California, led development of computer software to monitor the conditions of the gyroscopes that keep the International Space Station (ISS) properly oriented in space as the ISS orbits Earth. The gyroscopes are flywheels that control the station's attitude without the use of propellant fuel. NASA computer scientists designed the new software, the Inductive Monitoring System, to detect warning signs that precede a gyroscope's failure. According to NASA officials, engineers will add the new software tool to a group of existing tools to identify and track problems related to the gyroscopes. If the software detects warning signs, it will quickly warn the space station's mission control center.

Real-Time Integration of Positioning and Accelerometer Data for Early Earthquake Warning on Canada's West Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biffard, B.; Rosenberger, A.; Pirenne, B.; Valenzuela, M.; MacArthur, M.

2017-12-01

Ocean Networks Canada (ONC) operates ocean and coastal observatories on all three of Canada's coasts, and more particularly across the Cascadia subduction zone. The data are acquired, parsed, calibrated and archived by ONC's data management system (Oceans 2.0), with real-time event detection, reaction and access capabilities. As such, ONC is in a unique position to develop early warning systems for earthquakes, near- and far-field tsunamis and other events. ONC is leading the development of a system to alert southwestern British Columbia of an impending Cascadia subduction zone earthquake on behalf of the provincial government and with the support of the Canadian Federal Government. Similarly to other early earthquake warning systems, an array of accelerometers is used to detect the initial earthquake p-waves. This can provide 5-60 seconds of warning to subscribers who can then take action, such as stopping trains and surgeries, closing valves, taking cover, etc. To maximize the detection capability and the time available to react to a notification, instruments are placed both underwater and on land on Vancouver Island. A novel feature of ONC's system is, for land-based sites, the combination of real-time satellite positioning (GNSS) and accelerometer data in the calculations to improve earthquake intensity estimates. This results in higher accuracy, dynamic range and responsiveness than either type of sensor is capable of alone. P-wave detections and displacement data are sent from remote stations to a data centre that must calculate epicentre locations and magnitude. The latter are then delivered to subscribers with client software that, given their position, will calculate arrival time and intensity. All of this must occur with very high standards for latency, reliability and accuracy.

Data Delivery Latency Improvements And First Steps Towards The Distributed Computing Of The Caltech/USGS Southern California Seismic Network Earthquake Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stubailo, I.; Watkins, M.; Devora, A.; Bhadha, R. J.; Hauksson, E.; Thomas, V. I.

2016-12-01

The USGS/Caltech Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) is a modern digital ground motion seismic network. It develops and maintains Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) data collection and delivery systems in southern California as well as real-time EEW algorithms. Recently, Behr et al., SRL, 2016 analyzed data from several regional seismic networks deployed around the globe. They showed that the SCSN was the network with the smallest data communication delays or latency. Since then, we have reduced further the telemetry delays for many of the 330 current sites. The latency has been reduced on average from 2-6 sec to 0.4 seconds by tuning the datalogger parameters and/or deploying software upgrades. Recognizing the latency data as one of the crucial parameters in EEW, we have started archiving the per-packet latencies in mseed format for all the participating sites in a similar way it is traditionally done for the seismic waveform data. The archived latency values enable us to understand and document long-term changes in performance of the telemetry links. We can also retroactively investigate how latent the waveform data were during a specific event or during a specific time period. In addition the near-real time latency values are useful for monitoring and displaying the real-time station latency, in particular to compare different telemetry technologies. A future step to reduce the latency is to deploy the algorithms on the dataloggers at the seismic stations and transmit either the final solutions or intermediate parameters to a central processing center. To implement this approach, we are developing a stand-alone version of the OnSite algorithm to run on the dataloggers in the field. This will increase the resiliency of the SCSN to potential telemetry restrictions in the immediate aftermath of a large earthquake, either by allowing local alarming by the single station, or permitting transmission of lightweight parametric information rather than continuous waveform data to the central processing facility. State-of-the-art development of Internet of Things (IoT) tools and platforms, which can be used to distribute and maintain software on a large number of remote devices are making this approach to earthquake early warning more feasible.

Earthquake Early Warning and Public Policy: Opportunities and Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goltz, J. D.; Bourque, L.; Tierney, K.; Riopelle, D.; Shoaf, K.; Seligson, H.; Flores, P.

2003-12-01

Development of an earthquake early warning capability and pilot project were objectives of TriNet, a 5-year (1997-2001) FEMA-funded project to develop a state-of-the-art digital seismic network in southern California. In parallel with research to assemble a protocol for rapid analysis of earthquake data and transmission of a signal by TriNet scientists and engineers, the public policy, communication and educational issues inherent in implementation of an earthquake early warning system were addressed by TriNet's outreach component. These studies included: 1) a survey that identified potential users of an earthquake early warning system and how an earthquake early warning might be used in responding to an event, 2) a review of warning systems and communication issues associated with other natural hazards and how lessons learned might be applied to an alerting system for earthquakes, 3) an analysis of organization, management and public policy issues that must be addressed if a broad-based warning system is to be developed and 4) a plan to provide earthquake early warnings to a small number of organizations in southern California as an experimental prototype. These studies provided needed insights into the social and cultural environment in which this new technology will be introduced, an environment with opportunities to enhance our response capabilities but also an environment with significant barriers to overcome to achieve a system that can be sustained and supported. In this presentation we will address the main public policy issues that were subjects of analysis in these studies. They include a discussion of the possible division of functions among organizations likely to be the principle partners in the management of an earthquake early warning system. Drawing on lessons learned from warning systems for other hazards, we will review the potential impacts of false alarms and missed events on warning system credibility, the acceptability of fully automated warning systems and equity issues associated with possible differential access to warnings. Finally, we will review the status of legal authorities and liabilities faced by organizations that assume various warning system roles and possible approaches to setting up a pilot project to introduce early warning. Our presentation will suggest that introducing an early warning system requires multi-disciplinary and multi-agency cooperation and thoughtful discussion among organizations likely to be providers and participants in an early warning system. Recalling our experience with earthquake prediction, we will look at early warning as a promising but unproven technology and recommend moving forward with caution and patience.

32 CFR 707.4 - Aircraft warning lights.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 5 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Aircraft warning lights. 707.4 Section 707.4... RESPECT TO ADDITIONAL STATION AND SIGNAL LIGHTS § 707.4 Aircraft warning lights. Naval vessels may display... light on each obstruction. ...

32 CFR 707.4 - Aircraft warning lights.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 32 National Defense 5 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Aircraft warning lights. 707.4 Section 707.4... RESPECT TO ADDITIONAL STATION AND SIGNAL LIGHTS § 707.4 Aircraft warning lights. Naval vessels may display... light on each obstruction. ...

32 CFR 707.4 - Aircraft warning lights.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 32 National Defense 5 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Aircraft warning lights. 707.4 Section 707.4... RESPECT TO ADDITIONAL STATION AND SIGNAL LIGHTS § 707.4 Aircraft warning lights. Naval vessels may display... light on each obstruction. ...

32 CFR 707.4 - Aircraft warning lights.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 32 National Defense 5 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Aircraft warning lights. 707.4 Section 707.4... RESPECT TO ADDITIONAL STATION AND SIGNAL LIGHTS § 707.4 Aircraft warning lights. Naval vessels may display... light on each obstruction. ...

32 CFR 707.4 - Aircraft warning lights.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 32 National Defense 5 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Aircraft warning lights. 707.4 Section 707.4... RESPECT TO ADDITIONAL STATION AND SIGNAL LIGHTS § 707.4 Aircraft warning lights. Naval vessels may display... light on each obstruction. ...

Safety Early Warning Research for Highway Construction Based on Case-Based Reasoning and Variable Fuzzy Sets

PubMed Central

Liu, Yan; Xu, Zhen-Jun

2013-01-01

As a high-risk subindustry involved in construction projects, highway construction safety has experienced major developments in the past 20 years, mainly due to the lack of safe early warnings in Chinese construction projects. By combining the current state of early warning technology with the requirements of the State Administration of Work Safety and using case-based reasoning (CBR), this paper expounds on the concept and flow of highway construction safety early warnings based on CBR. The present study provides solutions to three key issues, index selection, accident cause association analysis, and warning degree forecasting implementation, through the use of association rule mining, support vector machine classifiers, and variable fuzzy qualitative and quantitative change criterion modes, which fully cover the needs of safe early warning systems. Using a detailed description of the principles and advantages of each method and by proving the methods' effectiveness and ability to act together in safe early warning applications, effective means and intelligent technology for a safe highway construction early warning system are established. PMID:24191134

Safety early warning research for highway construction based on case-based reasoning and variable fuzzy sets.

PubMed

Liu, Yan; Yi, Ting-Hua; Xu, Zhen-Jun

2013-01-01

As a high-risk subindustry involved in construction projects, highway construction safety has experienced major developments in the past 20 years, mainly due to the lack of safe early warnings in Chinese construction projects. By combining the current state of early warning technology with the requirements of the State Administration of Work Safety and using case-based reasoning (CBR), this paper expounds on the concept and flow of highway construction safety early warnings based on CBR. The present study provides solutions to three key issues, index selection, accident cause association analysis, and warning degree forecasting implementation, through the use of association rule mining, support vector machine classifiers, and variable fuzzy qualitative and quantitative change criterion modes, which fully cover the needs of safe early warning systems. Using a detailed description of the principles and advantages of each method and by proving the methods' effectiveness and ability to act together in safe early warning applications, effective means and intelligent technology for a safe highway construction early warning system are established.

Study on Early-Warning System of Cotton Production in Hebei Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Runqing; Ma, Teng

Cotton production plays an important role in Hebei. It straightly influences cotton farmers’ life, agricultural production and national economic development as well. In recent years, due to cotton production frequently fluctuating, two situations, “difficult selling cotton” and “difficult buying cotton” have alternately occurred, and brought disadvantages to producers, businesses and national finance. Therefore, it is very crucial to research the early warning of cotton production for solving the problem of cotton production’s frequent fluctuation and ensuring the cotton industry’s sustainable development. This paper founds a signal lamp model of early warning through employing time-difference correlation analysis method to select early-warning indicators and statistical analysis method associated with empirical analysis to determine early-warning limits. Finally, it not only obtained warning conditions of cotton production from 1993 to 2006 and forecast 2007’s condition, but also put forward corresponding countermeasures to prevent cotton production from fluctuating. Furthermore, an early-warning software of cotton production is completed through computer programming on the basis of the early warning model above.

90. View of scanner building no. 104 showing emplacement process ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

90. View of scanner building no. 104 showing emplacement process for one-half of upper radar switch housing body. RCA Services Company 6 September, 1960, official photograph BMEWS Project by unknown photograph, Photographic Services, Riverton, NJ, BMEWS, clear as negative no. a-1163. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

52. View from ground level showing lower radar scanner switch ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

52. View from ground level showing lower radar scanner switch with open port door in radar scanner building 105 showing emanating waveguides from lower switch in vertical run; photograph also shows catwalk to upper scanner switch in upper left side of photograph and structural supports. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

54. View from ground level in building no. 105 showing ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

54. View from ground level in building no. 105 showing lower radar scanner switch at open port door. Note incoming waveguide and control switch at lower left of photograph and note several waveguides leaving top of scanner switch around the circumference of switch. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

Tsunami early warning system for the western coast of the Black Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ionescu, Constantin; Partheniu, Raluca; Cioflan, Carmen; Constantin, Angela; Danet, Anton; Diaconescu, Mihai; Ghica, Daniela; Grecu, Bogdan; Manea, Liviu; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Moldovan, Iren; Neagoe, Cristian; Radulian, Mircea; Raileanu, Victor; Verdes, Ioan

2014-05-01

The Black Sea area is liable to tsunamis generation and the statistics show that more than twenty tsunamis have been observed in the past. The last tsunami was observed on 31st of March 1901 in the western part of the Black Sea, in the Shabla area. An earthquake of magnitude generated at a depth of 15 km below the sea level , triggered tsunami waves of 5 m height and material losses as well. The oldest tsunami ever recorded close to the Romanian shore-line dates from year 104. This paper emphasises the participation of The National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP) to the development of a tsunami warning system for the western cost of the Black Sea. In collaboration with the National Institute for Marine Geology and Geoecology (GeoEcoMar), the Institute of Oceanology and the Geological Institute, the last two belonging to the Bulgarian Academy of Science, NIEP has participated as partner, to the cross-border project "Set-up and implementation of key core components of a regional early-warning system for marine geohazards of risk to the Romanian-Bulgarian Black Sea coastal area - MARINEGEOHAZARDS", coordinated by GeoEcoMar. The main purpose of the project was the implementation of an integrated early-warning system accompanied by a common decision-support tool, and enhancement of regional technical capability, for the adequate detection, assessment, forecasting and rapid notification of natural marine geohazards for the Romanian-Bulgarian Black Sea cross-border area. In the last years, NIEP has increased its interest on the marine related hazards, such as tsunamis and, in collaboration with other institutions of Romania, is acting to strengthen the cooperation and data exchanges with institutions from the Black Sea surrounding countries which already have tsunami monitoring infrastructures. In this respect, NIEP has developed a coastal network for marine seismicity, by installing three new seismic stations in the coastal area of the Black Sea, Sea Level Sensors, Radar and Pressure sensors, Meteorological and GNSS stations at every site, providing tide gauges and seismic data exchange with the Black Sea countries. At the same time, the Tsunami Analysis Tool (TAT) software, for inundation modelling, along with it's RedPhone application, were also installed at the National Data Centre in Magurele city, and also at Dobrogea Seismic Observatory in the city of Eforie Nord, close to the Black Sea shore.

Atmosphere Mitigation in Precise Point Positioning Ambiguity Resolution for Earthquake Early Warning in the Western U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geng, J.; Bock, Y.; Reuveni, Y.

2014-12-01

Earthquake early warning (EEW) is a time-critical system and typically relies on seismic instruments in the area around the source to detect P waves (or S waves) and rapidly issue alerts. Thanks to the rapid development of real-time Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), a good number of sensors have been deployed in seismic zones, such as the western U.S. where over 600 GPS stations are collecting 1-Hz high-rate data along the Cascadia subduction zone, San Francisco Bay area, San Andreas fault, etc. GNSS sensors complement the seismic sensors by recording the static offsets while seismic data provide highly-precise higher frequency motions. An optimal combination of GNSS and accelerometer data (seismogeodesy) has advantages compared to GNSS-only or seismic-only methods and provides seismic velocity and displacement waveforms that are precise enough to detect P wave arrivals, in particular in the near source region. Robust real-time GNSS and seismogeodetic analysis is challenging because it requires a period of initialization and continuous phase ambiguity resolution. One of the limiting factors is unmodeled atmospheric effects, both of tropospheric and ionospheric origin. One mitigation approach is to introduce atmospheric corrections into precise point positioning with ambiguity resolution (PPP-AR) of clients/stations within the monitored regions. NOAA generates hourly predictions of zenith troposphere delays at an accuracy of a few centimeters, and 15-minute slant ionospheric delays of a few TECU (Total Electron Content Unit) accuracy from both geodetic and meteorological data collected at hundreds of stations across the U.S. The Scripps Orbit and Permanent Array Center (SOPAC) is experimenting with a regional ionosphere grid using a few hundred stations in southern California, and the International GNSS Service (IGS) routinely estimates a Global Ionosphere Map using over 100 GNSS stations. With these troposphere and ionosphere data as additional observations, we can shorten the initialization period and improve the ambiguity resolution efficiency of PPP-AR. We demonstrate this with data collected by a cluster of Real-Time Earthquake Analysis for Disaster mItigation (READI) network stations in southern California operated by UNAVCO/PBO and SOPAC.

Implementing Obstetric Early Warning Systems.

PubMed

Friedman, Alexander M; Campbell, Mary L; Kline, Carolyn R; Wiesner, Suzanne; D'Alton, Mary E; Shields, Laurence E

2018-04-01

Severe maternal morbidity and mortality are often preventable and obstetric early warning systems that alert care providers of potential impending critical illness may improve maternal safety. While literature on outcomes and test characteristics of maternal early warning systems is evolving, there is limited guidance on implementation. Given current interest in early warning systems and their potential role in care, the 2017 Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine (SMFM) Annual Meeting dedicated a session to exploring early warning implementation across a wide range of hospital settings. This manuscript reports on key points from this session. While implementation experiences varied based on factors specific to individual sites, common themes relevant to all hospitals presenting were identified. Successful implementation of early warnings systems requires administrative and leadership support, dedication of resources, improved coordination between nurses, providers, and ancillary staff, optimization of information technology, effective education, evaluation of and change in hospital culture and practices, and support in provider decision-making. Evolving data on outcomes on early warning systems suggest that maternal risk may be reduced. To effectively reduce maternal, risk early warning systems that capture deterioration from a broad range of conditions may be required in addition to bundles tailored to specific conditions such as hemorrhage, thromboembolism, and hypertension.

Knowledge of stroke risk factors and early warning signs of stroke among students enrolled in allied health programs: a pilot study.

PubMed

Milner, Abby; Lewis, William J; Ellis, Charles

2008-01-01

The inclusion of stroke education modules early in medical school curricula has resulted in improved stroke knowledge in graduate physicians. The success of these programs suggests that allied health professions programs should also consider strategies to improve stroke knowledge in students preparing for allied health careers that also require knowledge of stroke risk factors and early warning signs. Currently, little is known about stroke knowledge in students enrolled in allied health professions programs. 208 first- and second-year students enrolled in allied health programs completed a survey of stroke risk factors and early warning signs of stroke. Risk factor knowledge - 99% identified smoking as a risk factor; 67% identified diabetes; 93% identified high cholesterol; 89% identified age; and 92% identified physical inactivity. Less than 50% of the students identified all 5 risk factors. There were no differences between first- and second-year students in risk factor knowledge. Early warning signs and first response knowledge - 89% recognized sudden confusion or trouble speaking; 94% recognized sudden facial, arm, or leg weakness; 65% recognized sudden vision loss; 82% recognized sudden trouble walking; and 73% recognized sudden headache as early warning signs of stroke. Eighty-one percent recognized calling 9-1-1 as the appropriate first action. However, only 25% recognized all five early warning signs and only 20% recognized all five early warning signs and would call 9-1-1 as the first action. There were differences between first- and second-year students in recognizing 3 of 5 early warning signs and appropriate first action to call 9-1-1. Most students recognized individual stroke risk factors and early warning signs but few recognized multiple risk factors and early warning signs of stroke.

Performance of Earthquake Early Warning Systems during the Major Events of the 2016-2017 Central Italy Seismic Sequence.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Festa, G.; Picozzi, M.; Alessandro, C.; Colombelli, S.; Cattaneo, M.; Chiaraluce, L.; Elia, L.; Martino, C.; Marzorati, S.; Supino, M.; Zollo, A.

2017-12-01

Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) are systems nowadays contributing to the seismic risk mitigation actions, both in terms of losses and societal resilience, by issuing an alert promptly after the earthquake origin and before the ground shaking impacts the targets to be protected. EEWS systems can be grouped in two main classes: network based and stand-alone systems. Network based EEWS make use of dense seismic networks surrounding the fault (e.g. Near Fault Observatory; NFO) generating the event. The rapid processing of the P-wave early portion allows for the location and magnitude estimation of the event then used to predict the shaking through ground motion prediction equations. Stand-alone systems instead analyze the early P-wave signal to predict the ground shaking carried by the late S or surface waves, through empirically calibrated scaling relationships, at the recording site itself. We compared the network-based (PRESTo, PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem, www.prestoews.org, Satriano et al., 2011) and the stand-alone (SAVE, on-Site-Alert-leVEl, Caruso et al., 2017) systems, by analyzing their performance during the 2016-2017 Central Italy sequence. We analyzed 9 earthquakes having magnitude 5.0 < M < 6.5 at about 200 stations located within 200 km from the epicentral area, including stations of The Altotiberina NFO (TABOO). Performances are evaluated in terms of rate of success of ground shaking intensity prediction and available lead-time, i.e. the time available for security actions. PRESTo also evaluated the accuracy of location and magnitude. Both systems well predict the ground shaking nearby the event source, with a success rate around 90% within the potential damage zone. The lead-time is significantly larger for the network based system, increasing to more than 10s at 40 km from the event epicentre. The stand-alone system better performs in the near-source region showing a positive albeit small lead-time (<3s). Far away from the source, the performances slightly degrade, mostly owing to uncertain calibration of attenuation relationships. This study opens to the possibility of making EEWS operational in Italy, based on the available acceleration networks, by improving the capability of reducing the lead-time related to data telemetry.

Design and internal validation of an obstetric early warning score: secondary analysis of the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre Case Mix Programme database.

PubMed

Carle, C; Alexander, P; Columb, M; Johal, J

2013-04-01

We designed and internally validated an aggregate weighted early warning scoring system specific to the obstetric population that has the potential for use in the ward environment. Direct obstetric admissions from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre's Case Mix Programme Database were randomly allocated to model development (n = 2240) or validation (n = 2200) sets. Physiological variables collected during the first 24 h of critical care admission were analysed. Logistic regression analysis for mortality in the model development set was initially used to create a statistically based early warning score. The statistical score was then modified to create a clinically acceptable early warning score. Important features of this clinical obstetric early warning score are that the variables are weighted according to their statistical importance, a surrogate for the FI O2 /Pa O2 relationship is included, conscious level is assessed using a simplified alert/not alert variable, and the score, trigger thresholds and response are consistent with the new non-obstetric National Early Warning Score system. The statistical and clinical early warning scores were internally validated using the validation set. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.995 (95% CI 0.992-0.998) for the statistical score and 0.957 (95% CI 0.923-0.991) for the clinical score. Pre-existing empirically designed early warning scores were also validated in the same way for comparison. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.955 (95% CI 0.922-0.988) for Swanton et al.'s Modified Early Obstetric Warning System, 0.937 (95% CI 0.884-0.991) for the obstetric early warning score suggested in the 2003-2005 Report on Confidential Enquiries into Maternal Deaths in the UK, and 0.973 (95% CI 0.957-0.989) for the non-obstetric National Early Warning Score. This highlights that the new clinical obstetric early warning score has an excellent ability to discriminate survivors from non-survivors in this critical care data set. Further work is needed to validate our new clinical early warning score externally in the obstetric ward environment. Anaesthesia © 2013 The Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland.

Early Warning System Implementation Guide: For Use with the National High School Center's Early Warning System Tool v2.0

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Therriault, Susan Bowles; Heppen, Jessica; O'Cummings, Mindee; Fryer, Lindsay; Johnson, Amy

2010-01-01

This Early Warning System (EWS) Implementation Guide is a supporting document for schools and districts that are implementing the National High School Center's Early Warning System (EWS) Tool v2.0. Developed by the National High School Center at the American Institutes for Research (AIR), the guide and tool support the establishment and…

Application of the Risk-Based Early Warning Method in a Fracture-Karst Water Source, North China.

PubMed

Guo, Yongli; Wu, Qing; Li, Changsuo; Zhao, Zhenhua; Sun, Bin; He, Shiyi; Jiang, Guanghui; Zhai, Yuanzheng; Guo, Fang

2018-03-01

  The paper proposes a risk-based early warning considering characteristics of fracture-karst aquifer in North China and applied it in a super-large fracture-karst water source. Groundwater vulnerability, types of land use, water abundance, transmissivity and spatial temporal variation of groundwater quality were chosen as indexes of the method. Weights of factors were obtained by using AHP method based on relative importance of factors, maps of factors were zoned by GIS, early warning map was conducted based on extension theory with the help of GIS, ENVI+IDL. The early warning map fused five factors very well, serious and tremendous warning areas are mainly located in northwest and east with high or relatively high transmissivity and groundwater pollutant loading, and obviously deteriorated or deteriorated trend of petroleum. The early warning map warns people where more attention should be paid, and the paper guides decision making to take appropriate protection actions in different warning levels areas.

Early identification systems for emerging foodborne hazards.

PubMed

Marvin, H J P; Kleter, G A; Prandini, A; Dekkers, S; Bolton, D J

2009-05-01

This paper provides a non-exhausting overview of early warning systems for emerging foodborne hazards that are operating in the various places in the world. Special attention is given to endpoint-focussed early warning systems (i.e. ECDC, ISIS and GPHIN) and hazard-focussed early warning systems (i.e. FVO, RASFF and OIE) and their merit to successfully identify a food safety problem in an early stage is discussed. Besides these early warning systems which are based on monitoring of either disease symptoms or hazards, also early warning systems and/or activities that intend to predict the occurrence of a food safety hazard in its very beginning of development or before that are described. Examples are trend analysis, horizon scanning, early warning systems for mycotoxins in maize and/or wheat and information exchange networks (e.g. OIE and GIEWS). Furthermore, recent initiatives that aim to develop predictive early warning systems based on the holistic principle are discussed. The assumption of the researchers applying this principle is that developments outside the food production chain that are either directly or indirectly related to the development of a particular food safety hazard may also provide valuable information to predict the development of this hazard.

Cascadia, an ultracompact seismic instrument with over 200dB of dynamic range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, Tim; Devanney, Peter; Bainbridge, Geoff; Townsend, Bruce

2017-04-01

Integration of geophysical instrumentation is clearly a way to lower overall station cost, make installations less complex, reduce installation time, increase station utility and value to a wider group of researchers, data miners and monitoring groups. Initiatives to expand early earthquake warning networks and observatories can use these savings for increasing station density. Integration of mature instrument systems such as broadband sensors and accelerometers used in strong motion studies has to be done with care to preserve the low noise and low frequency performance while providing over 200dB of dynamic range. Understanding the instrument complexities and deployment challenges allows the engineering teams to optimize the packaging to make installation and servicing cost effective, simple, routine and ultimately more reliable. We discuss early results from testing both in the lab and in the field of a newly released instrument called the Cascadia that integrates a broadband seismometer with a class A (USGS rating) accelerometer in a small stainless steel sonde suited for dense arrays in either ad hoc direct bury field deployments or in observatory quality shallow boreholes.

Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models: the EDuMaP method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvello, M.; Piciullo, L.

2016-01-01

A schematic of the components of regional early warning systems for rainfall-induced landslides is herein proposed, based on a clear distinction between warning models and warning systems. According to this framework an early warning system comprises a warning model as well as a monitoring and warning strategy, a communication strategy and an emergency plan. The paper proposes the evaluation of regional landslide warning models by means of an original approach, called the "event, duration matrix, performance" (EDuMaP) method, comprising three successive steps: identification and analysis of the events, i.e., landslide events and warning events derived from available landslides and warnings databases; definition and computation of a duration matrix, whose elements report the time associated with the occurrence of landslide events in relation to the occurrence of warning events, in their respective classes; evaluation of the early warning model performance by means of performance criteria and indicators applied to the duration matrix. During the first step the analyst identifies and classifies the landslide and warning events, according to their spatial and temporal characteristics, by means of a number of model parameters. In the second step, the analyst computes a time-based duration matrix with a number of rows and columns equal to the number of classes defined for the warning and landslide events, respectively. In the third step, the analyst computes a series of model performance indicators derived from a set of performance criteria, which need to be defined by considering, once again, the features of the warning model. The applicability, potentialities and limitations of the EDuMaP method are tested and discussed using real landslides and warning data from the municipal early warning system operating in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil).

Optimization of the Number and Location of Tsunami Stations in a Tsunami Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, C.; Liu, P. L. F.; Pritchard, M. E.

2014-12-01

Optimizing the number and location of tsunami stations in designing a tsunami warning system is an important and practical problem. It is always desirable to maximize the capability of the data obtained from the stations for constraining the earthquake source parameters, and to minimize the number of stations at the same time. During the 2011 Tohoku tsunami event, 28 coastal gauges and DART buoys in the near-field recorded tsunami waves, providing an opportunity for assessing the effectiveness of those stations in identifying the earthquake source parameters. Assuming a single-plane fault geometry, inversions of tsunami data from combinations of various number (1~28) of stations and locations are conducted and evaluated their effectiveness according to the residues of the inverse method. Results show that the optimized locations of stations depend on the number of stations used. If the stations are optimally located, 2~4 stations are sufficient to constrain the source parameters. Regarding the optimized location, stations must be uniformly spread in all directions, which is not surprising. It is also found that stations within the source region generally give worse constraint of earthquake source than stations farther from source, which is due to the exaggeration of model error in matching large amplitude waves at near-source stations. Quantitative discussions on these findings will be given in the presentation. Applying similar analysis to the Manila Trench based on artificial scenarios of earthquakes and tsunamis, the optimal location of tsunami stations are obtained, which provides guidance of deploying a tsunami warning system in this region.

Earned Value-Added

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jansen, Michael

2005-01-01

Earned value management [EVM] ...either you swear by it, or swear at it. Either way, there s no getting around the fact that EVM can be one of the most efficient and insightful methods of synthesizing cost, schedule, and technical status information into a single set of program health metrics. Is there a way of implementing EVM that allows a program to reap its early warning benefits while avoiding the pitfalls that make it infamous to its detractors? That s the question recently faced by the International Space Station [ISS] program.

40. View of dual projector system located in MWOC facility ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

40. View of dual projector system located in MWOC facility in transmitter building no. 102 by Bessler Company. System used to project images in MWOC on backlit screen system with fiber optic electro/mechanical system linked to computer output to indicate information on screen linked with display from projector system. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

Tactical Recovery of Aircraft and Personnel: A Relevant Capability for a Moral Obligation

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-03-01

June 1993. 21 The Marine Corps’ first and only successful pilot TRAP mission was the rescue of Air Force Captain Scott O’Grady, call sign: Basher -52...Captain O’Grady evaded capture by the Bosnian Serb Army for six days before making radio contact with a squadron mate, Basher -11, in the early morning of...June 8. Following successful radio contact with O’Grady, Basher -11 notified an on-station Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft which

13. View of southerly side of transmitter building no. 101 ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

13. View of southerly side of transmitter building no. 101 from south, showing tracking radar (tr) on top of transmitter building no. 102 in background left and abandoned radome on top of transmitter building no. 101 in middle of photograph with utilidor passageway link to right of photograph. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

92. View of transmitter building no. 102 first floor coolant ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

92. View of transmitter building no. 102 first floor coolant process water tanks (sodium bisulfate solution), stainless steel, for electronic systems cooling in transmitter and MIP rooms. RCA Services Company 29 September, 1960, official photograph BMEWS Project by unknown photograph, Photographic Services, Riverton, NJ, BMEWS, clear as negative no. A-1226 - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

Towards a debris-flow warning system based on hydrological measurements of the triggering conditions. A study of El Rebaixader catchment (Central Pyrenees, Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abancó, Clàudia; Hürlimann, Marcel; Moya, José

2014-05-01

Debris flows represent a risk to the society due to their high destructive power. Rainfall is the main debris-flow triggering factor. Rainfall thresholds are generally used for warning of debris flow occurrence in susceptible catchments. However, the efficiency of such thresholds for real time hazard assessment is often conditioned by many factors, such as: the location and number of the rain gauges used (both to define the thresholds, and for setting off warnings); the temporal and spatial evolution of rainfall's convective cells or the effect of snow cover melting. These factors affect the length of the warning time, which is of crucial importance for issuing alert messages or alarms to the people and infrastructures at risk. The Rebaixader catchment (Central Pyrenees, Spain) is being monitored since 2009 by six stations recording information on initiation (4 stations) and flow detection and cinematic behaviour (2 stations). Until December 2013, 7 debris flows, 17 debris floods and 4 rockfalls have been recorded. The objectives of this work were: a) the definition of rainfall thresholds at two different rain gauges; b) the analysis of the infiltration patterns in order to define their potential use for warning systems and c) preliminary testing of rainfall thresholds' efficiency in terms of warning time, in this catchment. This last goal consisted in the comparison of the time elapsed between the rainfall threshold was exceeded and the event occurrence was detected by the stations at the channel area. The results suggest that the intensity-duration rainfall thresholds sometimes provide warning times which would be too short for an adequate reaction in the Rebaixader catchment (less than 10 minutes). The combination of such rainfall thresholds with infiltration measurements is useful to increase the warning time. This occurs especially in the events triggered in spring, when the snowmelt plays an important role in the event's triggering conditions. However, the effects of infiltration associated to the summer convective rainfalls are almost imperceptible; therefore their importance in warning systems decreases.

Real-time Estimation of Fault Rupture Extent for Recent Large Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamada, M.; Mori, J. J.

2009-12-01

Current earthquake early warning systems assume point source models for the rupture. However, for large earthquakes, the fault rupture length can be of the order of tens to hundreds of kilometers, and the prediction of ground motion at a site requires the approximated knowledge of the rupture geometry. Early warning information based on a point source model may underestimate the ground motion at a site, if a station is close to the fault but distant from the epicenter. We developed an empirical function to classify seismic records into near-source (NS) or far-source (FS) records based on the past strong motion records (Yamada et al., 2007). Here, we defined the near-source region as an area with a fault rupture distance less than 10km. If we have ground motion records at a station, the probability that the station is located in the near-source region is; P = 1/(1+exp(-f)) f = 6.046log10(Za) + 7.885log10(Hv) - 27.091 where Za and Hv denote the peak values of the vertical acceleration and horizontal velocity, respectively. Each observation provides the probability that the station is located in near-source region, so the resolution of the proposed method depends on the station density. The information of the fault rupture location is a group of points where the stations are located. However, for practical purposes, the 2-dimensional configuration of the fault is required to compute the ground motion at a site. In this study, we extend the methodology of NS/FS classification to characterize 2-dimensional fault geometries and apply them to strong motion data observed in recent large earthquakes. We apply a cosine-shaped smoothing function to the probability distribution of near-source stations, and convert the point fault location to 2-dimensional fault information. The estimated rupture geometry for the 2007 Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki earthquake 10 seconds after the origin time is shown in Figure 1. Furthermore, we illustrate our method with strong motion data of the 2007 Noto-hanto earthquake, 2008 Iwate-Miyagi earthquake, and 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The on-going rupture extent can be estimated for all datasets as the rupture propagates. For earthquakes with magnitude about 7.0, the determination of the fault parameters converges to the final geometry within 10 seconds.

A proposed Primary Health Early Warning Score (PHEWS) with emphasis on early detection of sepsis in the elderly.

PubMed

Anderson, Ian

2016-03-01

There are several secondary care early warning scores which alert for severe illness including sepsis. None are specifically adjusted for primary care. A Primary Health Early Warning Score (PHEWS) is proposed which incorporates practical parameters from both secondary and primary care.

Estimation for aerial detection effectiveness with cooperation efficiency factors of early-warning aircraft in early-warning detection SoS under BSC framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Feng; Hu, Xiaofeng; He, Xiaoyuan; Guo, Rui; Li, Kaiming; Yang, Lu

2017-11-01

In the military field, the performance evaluation of early-warning aircraft deployment or construction is always an important problem needing to be explored. As an effective approach of enterprise management and performance evaluation, Balanced Score Card (BSC) attracts more and more attentions and is studied more and more widely all over the world. It can also bring feasible ideas and technical approaches for studying the issue of the performance evaluation of the deployment or construction of early-warning aircraft which is the important component in early-warning detection system of systems (SoS). Therefore, the deep explored researches are carried out based on the previously research works. On the basis of the characteristics of space exploration and aerial detection effectiveness of early-warning detection SoS and the cardinal principle of BSC are analyzed simply, and the performance evaluation framework of the deployment or construction of early-warning aircraft is given, under this framework, aimed at the evaluation issue of aerial detection effectiveness of early-warning detection SoS with the cooperation efficiency factors of the early-warning aircraft and other land based radars, the evaluation indexes are further designed and the relative evaluation model is further established, especially the evaluation radar chart being also drawn to obtain the evaluation results from a direct sight angle. Finally, some practical computer simulations are launched to prove the validity and feasibility of the research thinking and technologic approaches which are proposed in the paper.

Informing climate change adaptation with insights from famine early warning (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.

2010-12-01

Famine early warning systems provide a unique viewpoint for understanding the implications of climate change on food security, identifying the locations and seasons where millions of food insecure people are dependent upon climate-sensitive agricultural systems. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is a decision support system sponsored by the Office of Food for Peace of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which distributes over two billion dollars of food aid to more than 40 countries each year. FEWS NET identifies the times and places where food aid is required by the most climatically sensitive and consequently food insecure populations of the developing world. As result, FEWS NET has developed its own "climate service", implemented by USGS, NOAA, and NASA, to support its decision making processes. The foundation of this climate service is the monitoring of current growing conditions for early identification of agricultural drought that might impact food security. Since station networks are sparse in the countries monitored, FEWS NET has a tradition (dating back to 1985) of reliance on satellite remote sensing of vegetation and rainfall. In the last ten years, climate forecasts have become an additional tool for food security assessment, extending the early warning perspective to include expected agricultural outcomes for the season ahead. More recently, research has expanded to include detailed analyses of recent observed climate trends, combined with diagnostic ocean-atmosphere studies. These studies are then used to develop interpretations of GCM scenarios and their implications for future patterns of precipitation and temperature, revealing trends towards warmer/drier climate conditions and increases in the relative frequency of drought. In some regions, like Eastern Africa, such changes seem to be already occurring, with an associated increase in food insecurity. Sub-national analyses for Kenya, for example, point to the need for adaptation through improved agricultural practices, so that increased yields can offset the impacts of rising temperatures and declining rainfall. Future work will focus on assessing temperature-PET linkages, and evaluating pathways for agricultural development.

People-centred landslide early warning systems in the context of risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haß, S.; Asch, K.; Fernandez-Steeger, T.; Arnhardt, C.

2009-04-01

In the current hazard research people-centred warning becomes more and more important, because different types of organizations and groups have to be involved in the warning process. This fact has to be taken into account when developing early warning systems. The effectiveness of early warning depends not only on technical capabilities but also on the preparedness of decision makers and their immediate response on how to act in case of emergency. Hence early warning systems have to be regarded in the context of an integrated and holistic risk management. Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures include people-centred, timely and understandable warning. Further responsible authorities have to be identified in advance and standards for risk communication have to be established. Up to now, hazard and risk assessment for geohazards focuses on the development of inventory, susceptibility, hazard and risk maps. But often, especially in Europe, there are no institutional structures for managing geohazards and in addition there is a lack of an authority that is legally obliged to alarm on landslides at national or regional level. One of the main characteristics within the warning process for natural hazards e.g. in Germany is the split of responsibility between scientific authorities (wissenschaftliche Fachbehörde) and enforcement authorities (Vollzugsbehörde). The scientific authority provides the experts who define the methods and measures for monitoring and evaluate the hazard level. The main focus is the acquisition and evaluation of data and subsequently the distribution of information. The enforcement authority issues official warnings about dangerous natural phenomena. Hence the information chain in the context of early warning ranges over two different institutions, the forecast service and the warning service. But there doesn't exist a framework for warning processes in terms of landslides as yet. The concept for managing natural disasters is often reduced to hazard assessment and emergency response. Great importance is attached to the scientific understanding of hazards and protective structures, while analysis of socio-economic impacts and risk assessment are not considered enough. The reduction of vulnerability has to be taken into greater account. Also the information needs of different stakeholders have to be identified at an early stage and should be integrated in the development of early warning systems. The content of the warning message must be simple, understandable and should cover instructions on how to react. Further the timeliness of the messages has to be guarented. In this context the aim of the landslide monitoring and early warning system SLEWS (Sensor Based Landslide Early Warning System) is to integrate the above mentioned aspects of a holistic disaster and risk management. The technology of spatial data infrastructures and web services provides the use of multiple communication channels within an early warning system. Thus people-centred early warning messages and information about slope stability can be sent in nearly real-time. It has to be underlined that the technological information process is just one element of an effective warning system. Moreover the warning system has also to be considered as a social system and has to make allowance to socio-economic and gender aspects : «[...] Develop early warning systems that are people centered, in particular systems whose warnings are timely and understandable to those at risk, which take into account the demographic, gender, cultural and livelihood characteristics of the target audiences, including guidance on how to act upon warnings, and that support effective operations by disaster managers and other decision makers » (Hyogo Framework, 2005) References : UNITED NATIONS INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION SECRETARIAT (UNISDR) (2006): Developing early warning systems: a checklist, Third international conference on early warning (EWC III): from concept to action: 27-29 March 2006, Bonn, Germany. Geneva, Switzerland: International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. WORLD CONFERENCE ON DISASTER REDUCTION (2005) : Report of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Kobe, Hyogo, Japan, 18-22 January 2005. Geneva, Switzerland, Secretariat, World Conference on Disaster Reduction. INTER-AGENCY SECRETARIAT OF THE ISDR & GLOBAL PLATFORM FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION (2007): Disaster risk reduction: 2007 global review. Geneva, UN, ISDR.

Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models: the EDuMaP method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvello, M.; Piciullo, L.

2015-10-01

The paper proposes the evaluation of the technical performance of a regional landslide early warning system by means of an original approach, called EDuMaP method, comprising three successive steps: identification and analysis of the Events (E), i.e. landslide events and warning events derived from available landslides and warnings databases; definition and computation of a Duration Matrix (DuMa), whose elements report the time associated with the occurrence of landslide events in relation to the occurrence of warning events, in their respective classes; evaluation of the early warning model Performance (P) by means of performance criteria and indicators applied to the duration matrix. During the first step, the analyst takes into account the features of the warning model by means of ten input parameters, which are used to identify and classify landslide and warning events according to their spatial and temporal characteristics. In the second step, the analyst computes a time-based duration matrix having a number of rows and columns equal to the number of classes defined for the warning and landslide events, respectively. In the third step, the analyst computes a series of model performance indicators derived from a set of performance criteria, which need to be defined by considering, once again, the features of the warning model. The proposed method is based on a framework clearly distinguishing between local and regional landslide early warning systems as well as among correlation laws, warning models and warning systems. The applicability, potentialities and limitations of the EDuMaP method are tested and discussed using real landslides and warnings data from the municipal early warning system operating in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil).

Earthquake Early Warning: Real-time Testing of an On-site Method Using Waveform Data from the Southern California Seismic Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solanki, K.; Hauksson, E.; Kanamori, H.; Wu, Y.; Heaton, T.; Boese, M.

2007-12-01

We have implemented an on-site early warning algorithm using the infrastructure of the Caltech/USGS Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN). We are evaluating the real-time performance of the software system and the algorithm for rapid assessment of earthquakes. In addition, we are interested in understanding what parts of the SCSN need to be improved to make early warning practical. Our EEW processing system is composed of many independent programs that process waveforms in real-time. The codes were generated by using a software framework. The Pd (maximum displacement amplitude of P wave during the first 3sec) and Tau-c (a period parameter during the first 3 sec) values determined during the EEW processing are being forwarded to the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) web page for independent evaluation of the results. The on-site algorithm measures the amplitude of the P-wave (Pd) and the frequency content of the P-wave during the first three seconds (Tau-c). The Pd and the Tau-c values make it possible to discriminate between a variety of events such as large distant events, nearby small events, and potentially damaging nearby events. The Pd can be used to infer the expected maximum ground shaking. The method relies on data from a single station although it will become more reliable if readings from several stations are associated. To eliminate false triggers from stations with high background noise level, we have created per station Pd threshold configuration for the Pd/Tau-c algorithm. To determine appropriate values for the Pd threshold we calculate Pd thresholds for stations based on the information from the EEW logs. We have operated our EEW test system for about a year and recorded numerous earthquakes in the magnitude range from M3 to M5. Two recent examples are a M4.5 earthquake near Chatsworth and a M4.7 earthquake near Elsinore. In both cases, the Pd and Tau-c parameters were determined successfully within 10 to 20 sec of the arrival of the P-wave at the station. The Tau-c values predicted the magnitude within 0.1 and the predicted average peak-ground-motion was 0.7 cm/s and 0.6 cm/s. The delays in the system are caused mostly by the packetizing delay because our software system is based on processing miniseed packets. Most recently we have begun reducing the data latency using new qmaserv2 software for the Q330 Quanterra datalogger. We implemented qmaserv2 based multicast receiver software to receive the native 1 sec packets from the dataloggers. The receiver reads multicast packets from the network and writes them into shared memory area. This new software will fully take advantage of the capabilities of the Q330 datalogger and significantly reduce data latency for EEW system. We have also implemented a new EEW sub-system that compliments the currently running EEW system by associating Pd and Tau-c values from multiple stations. So far, we have implemented a new trigger generation algorithm for real-time processing for the sub-system, and are able to routinely locate events and determine magnitudes using the Pd and Tau-c values.

Prototype Earthquake Early Warning System for Areas of Highest Seismic Risk in the Western U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bock, Y.; Geng, J.; Goldberg, D.; Saunders, J. K.; Haase, J. S.; Squibb, M. B.; Melgar, D.; Crowell, B. W.; Clayton, R. W.; Yu, E.; Walls, C. P.; Mann, D.; Mencin, D.; Mattioli, G. S.

2015-12-01

We report on a prototype earthquake early warning system for the Western U.S. based on GNSS (GPS+GLONASS) observations, and where available collocated GNSS and accelerometer data (seismogeodesy). We estimate with latency of 2-3 seconds GNSS displacement waveforms from more than 120 stations, focusing on the southern segment of the San Andreas fault, the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults and Cascadia. The displacements are estimated using precise point positioning with ambiguity resolution (PPP-AR), which provides for efficient processing of hundreds of "clients" within the region of interest with respect to a reference frame well outside the expected zone of deformation. The GNSS displacements are useful for alleviating magnitude saturation concerns, rapid earthquake magnitude estimation using peak ground displacements, CMT solutions and finite fault slip models. However, GNSS alone is insufficient for strict earthquake early warning (i.e., P wave detection). Therefore, we employ a self-contained seismogeodetic technique, where collocations of GNSS and accelerometer instruments are available, to estimate real-time displacement and velocity waveforms using PPP-AR with accelerometers (PPP-ARA). Using the velocity waveforms we can detect the P wave arrival for earthquakes of interest (>M 5.5), estimate a hypocenter, S wave propagation, and earthquake magnitude using Pd scaling relationships within seconds. Currently we are gearing up to receive observatory-grade accelerometer data from the CISN. We have deployed 25 inexpensive MEMS accelerometers at existing GNSS stations. The SIO Geodetic Modules that control the flow of the GNSS and accelerometer data are being upgraded with in situ PPP-ARA and P wave picking. In situ processing allows us to use the data at the highest sampling rate of the GNSS receiver (10 Hz or higher), in combination with the 100 Hz accelerometer data. Adding the GLONASS data allows for increased precision in the vertical, an important factor in P wave detection, and by reducing outliers, increasing the number of visible satellites and significantly reducing the time required for reinitialization of phase ambiguities. We plan to make our displacement and velocity waveforms available to the USGS ShakeAlert system and others in Earthworm format.

The effectiveness of physiologically based early warning or track and trigger systems after triage in adult patients presenting to emergency departments: a systematic review.

PubMed

Wuytack, Francesca; Meskell, Pauline; Conway, Aislinn; McDaid, Fiona; Santesso, Nancy; Hickey, Fergal G; Gillespie, Paddy; Raymakers, Adam J N; Smith, Valerie; Devane, Declan

2017-12-06

Changes to physiological parameters precede deterioration of ill patients. Early warning and track and trigger systems (TTS) use routine physiological measurements with pre-specified thresholds to identify deteriorating patients and trigger appropriate and timely escalation of care. Patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) are undiagnosed, undifferentiated and of varying acuity, yet the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of using early warning systems and TTS in this setting is unclear. We aimed to systematically review the evidence on the use, development/validation, clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of physiologically based early warning systems and TTS for the detection of deterioration in adult patients presenting to EDs. We searched for any study design in scientific databases and grey literature resources up to March 2016. Two reviewers independently screened results and conducted quality assessment. One reviewer extracted data with independent verification of 50% by a second reviewer. Only information available in English was included. Due to the heterogeneity of reporting across studies, results were synthesised narratively and in evidence tables. We identified 6397 citations of which 47 studies and 1 clinical trial registration were included. Although early warning systems are increasingly used in EDs, compliance varies. One non-randomised controlled trial found that using an early warning system in the ED may lead to a change in patient management but may not reduce adverse events; however, this is uncertain, considering the very low quality of evidence. Twenty-eight different early warning systems were developed/validated in 36 studies. There is relatively good evidence on the predictive ability of certain early warning systems on mortality and ICU/hospital admission. No health economic data were identified. Early warning systems seem to predict adverse outcomes in adult patients of varying acuity presenting to the ED but there is a lack of high quality comparative studies to examine the effect of using early warning systems on patient outcomes. Such studies should include health economics assessments.

Air quality early-warning system for cities in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yunzhen; Yang, Wendong; Wang, Jianzhou

2017-01-01

Air pollution has become a serious issue in many developing countries, especially in China, and could generate adverse effects on human beings. Air quality early-warning systems play an increasingly significant role in regulatory plans that reduce and control emissions of air pollutants and inform the public in advance when harmful air pollution is foreseen. However, building a robust early-warning system that will improve the ability of early-warning is not only a challenge but also a critical issue for the entire society. Relevant research is still poor in China and cannot always satisfy the growing requirements of regulatory planning, despite the issue's significance. Therefore, in this paper, a hybrid air quality early-warning system was successfully developed, composed of forecasting and evaluation. First, a hybrid forecasting model was proposed as an important part of this system based on the theory of "decomposition and ensemble" and combined with the advanced data processing technique, support vector machine, the latest bio-inspired optimization algorithm and the leave-one-out strategy for deciding weights. Afterwards, to intensify the research, fuzzy evaluation was performed, which also plays an indispensable role in the early-warning system. The forecasting model and fuzzy evaluation approaches are complementary. Case studies using daily air pollution concentrations of six air pollutants from three cities in China (i.e., Taiyuan, Harbin and Chongqing) are used as examples to evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness of the developed air quality early-warning system. Experimental results demonstrate that both the accuracy and the effectiveness of the developed system are greatly superior for air quality early warning. Furthermore, the application of forecasting and evaluation enables the informative and effective quantification of future air quality, offering a significant advantage, and can be employed to develop rapid air quality early-warning systems.

Urban Flood Prevention and Early Warning System in Jinan City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Shiyuan; Li, Qingguo

2018-06-01

The system construction of urban flood control and disaster reduction in China is facing pressure and challenge from new urban water disaster. Under the circumstances that it is difficult to build high standards of flood protection engineering measures in urban areas, it is particularly important to carry out urban flood early warning. In Jinan City, a representative inland area, based on the index system of early warning of flood in Jinan urban area, the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was adopted to evaluate the level of early warning. Based on the cumulative rainfall of 3 hours, the CAflood simulation results based on cellular automaton model of urban flooding were used as evaluation indexes to realize the accuracy and integration of urban flood control early warning.

New Observations of Seismic Group Velocities in the Western Solomon Islands from Cross-Correlation of Ambient Seismic Noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ku, C. S.; You, S. H.; Kuo, Y. T.; Huang, B. S.; Wu, Y. M.; Chen, Y. G.; Taylor, F. W.

2015-12-01

A MW 8.1 earthquake occurred on 1 April 2007 in the western Solomon Islands. Following this event, a damaging tsunami was induced and hit the Island Gizo where the capital city of Western Province of Solomon Islands located. Several buildings of this city were destroyed and several peoples lost their lives during this earthquake. However, during this earthquake, no near source seismic instrument has been installed in this region. The seismic evaluations for the aftershock sequence, the possible earthquake early warning and tsunami warning were unavailable. For the purpose of knowing more detailed information about seismic activity in this region, we have installed 9 seismic stations (with Trillium 120PA broadband seismometer and Q330S 24bit digitizer) around the rupture zone of the 2007 earthquake since September of 2009. Within a decade, it has been demonstrated both theoretically and experimentally that the Green's function or impulse response between two seismic stations can be retrieved from the cross-correlation of ambient noise. In this study, 6 stations' observations which are more complete during 2011/10 ~ 2012/12 period, were selected for the purpose of the cross-correlation analysis of ambient seismic noise. The group velocities at period 2-20 seconds of 15 station-pairs were extracted by using multiple filter technique (MFT) method. The analyzed results of this study presented significant results of group velocities with higher frequency contents than other studies (20-60 seconds in usually cases) and opened new opportunities to study the shallow crustal structure of the western Solomon Islands.

Integrated SeismoGeodetic Systsem with High-Resolution, Real-Time GNSS and Accelerometer Observation For Earthquake Early Warning Application.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passmore, P. R.; Jackson, M.; Zimakov, L. G.; Raczka, J.; Davidson, P.

2014-12-01

The key requirements for Earthquake Early Warning and other Rapid Event Notification Systems are: Quick delivery of digital data from a field station to the acquisition and processing center; Data integrity for real-time earthquake notification in order to provide warning prior to significant ground shaking in the given target area. These two requirements are met in the recently developed Trimble SG160-09 SeismoGeodetic System, which integrates both GNSS and acceleration measurements using the Kalman filter algorithm to create a new high-rate (200 sps), real-time displacement with sufficient accuracy and very low latency for rapid delivery of the acquired data to a processing center. The data acquisition algorithm in the SG160-09 System provides output of both acceleration and displacement digital data with 0.2 sec delay. This is a significant reduction in the time interval required for real-time transmission compared to data delivery algorithms available in digitizers currently used in other Earthquake Early Warning networks. Both acceleration and displacement data are recorded and transmitted to the processing site in a specially developed Multiplexed Recording Format (MRF) that minimizes the bandwidth required for real-time data transmission. In addition, a built in algorithm calculates the τc and Pd once the event is declared. The SG160-09 System keeps track of what data has not been acknowledged and re-transmits the data giving priority to current data. Modified REF TEK Protocol Daemon (RTPD) receives the digital data and acknowledges data received without error. It forwards this "good" data to processing clients of various real-time data processing software including Earthworm and SeisComP3. The processing clients cache packets when a data gap occurs due to a dropped packet or network outage. The cache packet time is settable, but should not exceed 0.5 sec in the Earthquake Early Warning network configuration. The rapid data transmission algorithm was tested with different communication media, including Internet, DSL, Wi-Fi, GPRS, etc. The test results show that the data latency via most communication media do not exceed 0.5 sec nominal from a first sample in the data packet. Detailed acquisition algorithm and results of data transmission via different communication media are presented.

Technology-Based Early Warning Systems for Bipolar Disorder: A Conceptual Framework

PubMed Central

Torous, John; Thompson, Wesley

2016-01-01

Recognition and timely action around “warning signs” of illness exacerbation is central to the self-management of bipolar disorder. Due to its heterogeneity and fluctuating course, passive and active mobile technologies have been increasingly evaluated as adjunctive or standalone tools to predict and prevent risk of worsening of course in bipolar disorder. As predictive analytics approaches to big data from mobile health (mHealth) applications and ancillary sensors advance, it is likely that early warning systems will increasingly become available to patients. Such systems could reduce the amount of time spent experiencing symptoms and diminish the immense disability experienced by people with bipolar disorder. However, in addition to the challenges in validating such systems, we argue that early warning systems may not be without harms. Probabilistic warnings may be delivered to individuals who may not be able to interpret the warning, have limited information about what behaviors to change, or are unprepared to or cannot feasibly act due to time or logistic constraints. We propose five essential elements for early warning systems and provide a conceptual framework for designing, incorporating stakeholder input, and validating early warning systems for bipolar disorder with a focus on pragmatic considerations. PMID:27604265

Usage of Wireless Sensor Networks in a service based spatial data infrastructure for Landslide Monitoring and Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnhardt, C.; Fernandez-Steeger, T. M.; Walter, K.; Kallash, A.; Niemeyer, F.; Azzam, R.; Bill, R.

2007-12-01

The joint project Sensor based Landslide Early Warning System (SLEWS) aims at a systematic development of a prototyping alarm- and early warning system for the detection of mass movements by application of an ad hoc wireless sensor network (WSN). Next to the development of suitable sensor setups, sensor fusion and network fusion are applied to enhance data quality and reduce false alarm rates. Of special interest is the data retrieval, processing and visualization in GI-Systems. Therefore a suitable serviced based Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) will be developed with respect to existing and upcoming Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards.The application of WSN provides a cheap and easy to set up solution for special monitoring and data gathering in large areas. Measurement data from different low-cost transducers for deformation observation (acceleration, displacement, tilting) is collected by distributed sensor nodes (motes), which interact separately and connect each other in a self-organizing manner. Data are collected and aggregated at the beacon (transmission station) and further operations like data pre-processing and compression can be performed. The WSN concept provides next to energy efficiency, miniaturization, real-time monitoring and remote operation, but also new monitoring strategies like sensor and network fusion. Since not only single sensors can be integrated at single motes either cross-validation or redundant sensor setups are possible to enhance data quality. The planned monitoring and information system will include a mobile infrastructure (information technologies and communication components) as well as methods and models to estimate surface deformation parameters (positioning systems). The measurements result in heterogeneous observation sets that have to be integrated in a common adjustment and filtering approach. Reliable real-time information will be obtained using a range of sensor input and algorithms, from which early warnings and prognosis may be derived. Implementation of sensor algorithms is an important task to form the business logic. This will be represented in self-contained web-based processing services (WPS). In the future different types of sensor networks can communicate via an infrastructure of OGC services using an interoperable way by standardized protocols as the Sensor Markup Language (SensorML) and Observations & Measurements Schema (O&M). Synchronous and asynchronous information services as the Sensor Alert Service (SAS) and the Web Notification Services (WNS) will provide defined users and user groups with time-critical readings from the observation site. Techniques using services for visualizing mapping data (WMS), meta data (CSW), vector (WFS) and raster data (WCS) will range from high detailed expert based output to fuzzy graphical warning elements.The expected results will be an advancement regarding classical alarm and early warning systems as the WSN are free scalable, extensible and easy to install.

Adapting ElarmS Earthquake Early Warnings for Cascadia: Development and Testing of ShakeAlerts in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartog, J. R.; Kress, V. C.; Thomas, T.; Malone, S. D.; Henson, I. H.; Neuhauser, D. S.

2013-12-01

As a first step in establishing an earthquake early warning system in Cascadia, we have installed the ElarmS component of the ShakeAlert system at the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network. In Cascadia our initial focus is primarily on the development of a seismo-geodetic-based real-time finite fault rupture algorithm to detect and characterize a large plate-boundary rupture in progress (see Crowell et. al., this session). In this regard the goal of the purely seismic-data-based ElarmS implementation is to 'trigger' the finite fault rupture algorithm. At the same time, however, the Cascadian ElarmS will also produce warnings for smaller onshore crustal earthquakes. While warnings from these smaller and closer earthquakes will provide shorter warning times for communities, and for less dramatic earthquakes, we intend to use them for educational purposes, and to coordinate with our regional and collaborating partners. They will also help to guide us to shorten data latencies and learn where additional instrumentation is most needed to increase performance. The accuracy of ElarmS in Cascadia is another major concern, because the current ElarmS model presumes an initial focal depth for earthquakes of 8 km based on California experience, while in Cascadia earthquakes of major concern may be as deep as 50 km, and/or occur beyond the western fringe of the seismic network. To this purpose our testing protocol is aimed at determining what changes are required to ensure top performance of an ElarmS-based warning system in Cascadia. Because of Cascadia's relatively low seismicity rate, and the paucity of data from plate boundary earthquakes there of any size, we have prioritized the development of a test system. The test system permits us to: 1) replay segments of actual seismic waveform data recorded from the PNSN and contributing seismic network stations to represent both earthquakes and noise conditions, and 2) broadcast synthetic data into the system to simulate signals we anticipate from earthquakes for which we have no actual ground motion recordings. The test system lets us also simulate various error conditions (latent and/or out-of-sequence data, telemetry drop-outs, etc.) to explore how to protect the system from them. We have also been testing the ElarmS system on real-time seismic network data for about 6 months as of the time of writing of this abstract. Using 268 channels of streaming strong motion and broad-band data, the system has produced very few false alarms and generally performed well for earthquakes between about magnitudes 2.5 and 4.5. Warning times are shorter (and the 'blind zone' smaller) in parts of the network where station density is higher and/or telemetry more fleet. One significant problem we find is that the discriminant used in northern California to differentiate local earthquake signals from teleseisms often fails in Cascadia. We are working to produce a valid teleseism detector.

[Ecological security early-warning in Zhoushan Islands based on variable weight model].

PubMed

Zhou, Bin; Zhong, Lin-sheng; Chen, Tian; Zhou, Rui

2015-06-01

Ecological security early warning, as an important content of ecological security research, is of indicating significance in maintaining regional ecological security. Based on driving force, pressure, state, impact and response (D-P-S-I-R) framework model, this paper took Zhoushan Islands in Zhejiang Province as an example to construct the ecological security early warning index system, test degrees of ecological security early warning of Zhoushan Islands from 2000 to 2012 by using the method of variable weight model, and forecast ecological security state of 2013-2018 by Markov prediction method. The results showed that the variable weight model could meet the study needs of ecological security early warning of Zhoushan Islands. There was a fluctuant rising ecological security early warning index from 0.286 to 0.484 in Zhoushan Islands between year 2000 and 2012, in which the security grade turned from "serious alert" into " medium alert" and the indicator light turned from "orange" to "yellow". The degree of ecological security warning was "medium alert" with the light of "yellow" for Zhoushan Islands from 2013 to 2018. These findings could provide a reference for ecological security maintenance of Zhoushan Islands.

A Sustainable Early Warning System for Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, T.; Tung, C.; Chung, N.

2007-12-01

In this era of rapid social and technological change leading to interesting life complexity and environmental displacement, both positive and negative effects among ecosystems call for a balance in which there are impacts by climate changes. Early warning systems for climate change impacts are necessary in order to allow society as a whole to properly and usefully assimilate the masses of new information and knowledge. Therefore, our research addresses to build up a sustainable early warning mechanism. The main goal is to mitigate the cumulative impacts on the environment of climate change and enhance adaptive capacities. An effective early warning system has been proven for protection. However, there is a problem that estimate future climate changes would be faced with high uncertainty. In general, take estimations for climate change impacts would use the data from General Circulation Models and take the analysis as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change declared. We follow the course of the method for analyzing climate change impacts and attempt to accomplish the sustainable early warning system for water quality management. Climate changes impact not only on individual situation but on short-term variation and long-term gradually changes. This kind characteristic should adopt the suitable warning system for long-term formulation and short- term operation. To continue the on-going research of the long-term early warning system for climate change impacts on water quality management, the short-term early warning system is established by using local observation data for reappraising the warning issue. The combination of long-term and short-term system can provide more circumstantial details. In Taiwan, a number of studies have revealed that climate change impacts on water quality, especially in arid period, the concentration of biological oxygen demand may turn into worse. Rapid population growth would also inflict injury on its assimilative capacity to degenerate. To concern about those items, the sustainable early warning system is established and the initiative fall into the following categories: considering the implications for policies, applying adaptive strategies and informing the new climate changes. By setting up the framework of early warning system expectantly can defend stream area from impacts damaging and in sure the sustainable development.

49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 49 Transportation 6 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C Appendix C to Part 512 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief Counsel...

49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 49 Transportation 6 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C Appendix C to Part 512 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief Counsel...

49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C Appendix C to Part 512 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief Counsel...

49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 49 Transportation 6 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C Appendix C to Part 512 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief Counsel...

49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 49 Transportation 6 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C Appendix C to Part 512 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief Counsel...

The Role of Cash Flow in Financial Early Warning of Agricultural Enterprises Based on Logistic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Fengru

2018-01-01

This paper chooses the agricultural listed companies as the research object, compares the financial situation of the enterprise and the theory of financial early warning, combines the financial status of the agricultural listed companies, selects the relevant cash flow indicators, discusses the application of the Logistic financial early warning model in the agricultural listed companies, Agricultural enterprises get better development. Research on financial early warning of agricultural listed companies will help the agricultural listed companies to predict the financial crisis. Financial early warning model is simple to establish, operational and strong, the use of financial early warning model, to help enterprises in the financial crisis before taking rapid and effective measures, which can avoid losses. Help enterprises to discover signs of deterioration of the financial situation in time to maintain the sustainable development of agricultural enterprises. In addition, through the financial early warning model, investors can correctly identify the financial situation of agricultural enterprises, and can evaluate the financial situation of agricultural enterprises and to help investors to invest in scientific and rational, beneficial to investors to analyze the safety of investment. But also help the relevant regulatory agencies to effectively monitor the market and promote the healthy and stable development of the market.

Developing an Early Warning System for Machu Picchu Pueblo, Peru.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulmer, Mark; Farquhar, Tony

2010-05-01

The town of Machu Picchu, Peru, is linked to Ollantaytambo and Cusco by rail and serves as the main station for the 400,000+ tourists visiting Machu Picchu. Due to the tourist industry the town grown threefold in population in the past two decades. Today, due to the limited availability of low-lying ground, construction is occurring higher up on the unstable valley slopes. The town is located at 2000 m asl while the surrounding peaks rise to over 4000 m asl. Slopes range from < 10° on the valley floor to > 70° in the surrounding granite mountains. The town has grown on the downstream right bank of the Vilcanota River, at the confluence of the Alcamayo and the Aguas Calientes Rivers. Broadly, a dry winter season runs from May to August with a rainy summer season running from October to March. The rainy months provide around 80% of the annual rainfall average, which ranges from 1,600 to 2,300 mm. Seasonal temperature variations are considered modest. An assessment of the geohazards in and around the town has been undertaken. Those of particular concern to the town are 1) large rocks falling onto the town and/or the rail line, 2) flash flooding by any one of its three rivers, and 3) mudflows and landslides. To improve the existing municipal warning system a prototype early warning system incorporating suitable technologies that could monitor weather, river flow and slope satability was installed along the Aguas Calientes River in 2009. This has a distributed modular construction allowing most components to be installed, maintained, swapped, salvaged, repaired and/or replaced by local technicians. A diverse set of candidate power, communication and sensor technologies was deployed and evaluated. Most of the candidate technologies had never been deployed in similar terrain, altitude or weather. The successful deployment of the prototype proved that it is technically feasible to develop early warning capacity in the town.

89. View of DR 2 antenna (structure no. 736) at ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

89. View of DR 2 antenna (structure no. 736) at 65 percent completion showing erection process. Antenna system designed and factory construction by D.S. Kennedy & Company., Comasset, MA, 1958. Note scanner radar building in background. Official photograph BMEWS Project by unknown photographer, 11 July, 1960, Photographic Services, Riverton, NJ, BMEWS, clear as negative no. A-824. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

1. View of three detection radar (DR) antennas. DR 1 ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

1. View of three detection radar (DR) antennas. DR 1 (structure no. 735) on left, DR 2 (structure no. 736) in center, and DR 3 (structure no. 737) looking north 30 degrees west, with tracking radar (large radome) and satcom (satellite communication) system in small radome in view between DR 2 and DR 3 antennae. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

Design and Implementation of a Wireless Sensor Network-Based Remote Water-Level Monitoring System

PubMed Central

Li, Xiuhong; Cheng, Xiao; Gong, Peng; Yan, Ke

2011-01-01

The proposed remote water-level monitoring system (RWMS) consists of a field sensor module, a base station module, adata center module and aWEB releasing module. It has advantages in real time and synchronized remote control, expandability, and anti-jamming capabilities. The RWMS can realize real-time remote monitoring, providing early warning of events and protection of the safety of monitoring personnel under certain dangerous circumstances. This system has been successfully applied in Poyanghu Lake. The cost of the whole system is approximately 1,500 yuan (RMB). PMID:22319377

A climate trend analysis of Uganda

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Eilerts, Gary; White, Libby

2012-01-01

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), identifies observed changes in rainfall and temperature in Uganda, based on an analysis of a quality-controlled, long time series of station observations throughout Uganda. Extending recent trends forward, it also provides a current and near-future context for understanding the actual nature of climate change impacts in the country, and a basis for identifying climate adaptations that may protect and improve the country's food security.

Design and implementation of a wireless sensor network-based remote water-level monitoring system.

PubMed

Li, Xiuhong; Cheng, Xiao; Gong, Peng; Yan, Ke

2011-01-01

The proposed remote water-level monitoring system (RWMS) consists of a field sensor module, a base station module, a data center module and a WEB releasing module. It has advantages in real time and synchronized remote control, expandability, and anti-jamming capabilities. The RWMS can realize real-time remote monitoring, providing early warning of events and protection of the safety of monitoring personnel under certain dangerous circumstances. This system has been successfully applied in Poyanghu Lake. The cost of the whole system is approximately 1,500 yuan (RMB).

Earthquake Early Warning Management based on Client-Server using Primary Wave data from Vibrating Sensor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laumal, F. E.; Nope, K. B. N.; Peli, Y. S.

2018-01-01

Early warning is a warning mechanism before an actual incident occurs, can be implemented on natural events such as tsunamis or earthquakes. Earthquakes are classified in tectonic and volcanic types depend on the source and nature. The tremor in the form of energy propagates in all directions as Primary and Secondary waves. Primary wave as initial earthquake vibrations propagates longitudinally, while the secondary wave propagates like as a sinusoidal wave after Primary, destructive and as a real earthquake. To process the primary vibration data captured by the earthquake sensor, a network management required client computer to receives primary data from sensors, authenticate and forward to a server computer to set up an early warning system. With the water propagation concept, a method of early warning system has been determined in which some sensors are located on the same line, sending initial vibrations as primary data on the same scale and the server recommended to the alarm sound as an early warning.

Massachusetts Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS). "Technical Descriptions of Risk Model Development": Early and Late Elementary Age Groupings (Grades 1-6)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2013

2013-01-01

The Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (Department) created the grades 1-12 Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS) in response to district interest in the Early Warning Indicator Index (EWII) that the Department previously created for rising grade 9 students. Districts shared that the EWII data were helpful, but also…

Organizing Schools to Address Early Warning Indicators (EWIs): Common Practices and Challenges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davis, Marcia; Herzog, Liza; Legters, Nettie

2013-01-01

An early warning system is an intentional process whereby school personnel collectively analyze student data to monitor students at risk of falling off track for graduation and to provide the interventions and resources to intervene. We studied the process of monitoring the early warning indicators and implementing interventions to ascertain…

78 FR 78321 - Early Warning Reporting, Foreign Defect Reporting, and Motor Vehicle and Equipment Recall...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-26

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 49 CFR Parts 573, 577, and 579 [Docket No. NHTSA--2012-0068; Notice 3] RIN 2127-AK72 Early Warning Reporting, Foreign Defect... final rule. Id. Manufacturers with early warning reporting (EWR) accounts may obtain a copy of the VIN...

Looming auditory collision warnings for driving.

PubMed

Gray, Rob

2011-02-01

A driving simulator was used to compare the effectiveness of increasing intensity (looming) auditory warning signals with other types of auditory warnings. Auditory warnings have been shown to speed driver reaction time in rear-end collision situations; however, it is not clear which type of signal is the most effective. Although verbal and symbolic (e.g., a car horn) warnings have faster response times than abstract warnings, they often lead to more response errors. Participants (N=20) experienced four nonlooming auditory warnings (constant intensity, pulsed, ramped, and car horn), three looming auditory warnings ("veridical," "early," and "late"), and a no-warning condition. In 80% of the trials, warnings were activated when a critical response was required, and in 20% of the trials, the warnings were false alarms. For the early (late) looming warnings, the rate of change of intensity signaled a time to collision (TTC) that was shorter (longer) than the actual TTC. Veridical looming and car horn warnings had significantly faster brake reaction times (BRT) compared with the other nonlooming warnings (by 80 to 160 ms). However, the number of braking responses in false alarm conditions was significantly greater for the car horn. BRT increased significantly and systematically as the TTC signaled by the looming warning was changed from early to veridical to late. Looming auditory warnings produce the best combination of response speed and accuracy. The results indicate that looming auditory warnings can be used to effectively warn a driver about an impending collision.

Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risk in Nepal and Their Mitigation Practices in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurung, S.

2017-12-01

Glacial lakes in Nepal face a huge risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) due to the ongoing effects of climate change leading to considerable amount of snow and glacier melt thus weakening the natural barriers holding these high altitude glacial lakes. Nepal is at an ever growing risk every year and always waiting for an inevitable natural disaster. Since GLOF can cause extreme huge loss of human lives and physical properties, it has now become very important to design a proper mechanism which helps in reducing hazards from such events. There is little we can do to stop natural disasters, but we can implement pro-active control measures to minimize the loss. Early Warning System is the provision of timely and effective information, which allows individuals exposed to hazards to take action, avoid or reduce risk to life and property and prepare for effective response. The basic idea behind Early Warning System is that, the earlier and more accurately we are able to predict potential risks associated with natural hazards especially flood, the more likely we will be able to manage and mitigate the disasters' impact on society, economies and environment. We are currently focused on the development of early warning system for Imja Glacial Lake. The objective of developing early warning system for Imja GLOF is to help reduce economic losses and mitigate the number of injuries or deaths by providing information that allows individuals and communities downstream of Imja Lake to protect their lives and properties by using the latest and most advanced technology available. We have installed one Automatic Weather Station near the left lateral moraine of Imja Lake to study the effects of different meteorological parameters so as to predict occurrence of any GLOF event. The sensor includes pluviometer, pyranometer, temperature and humidity sensor, wind sensor, Snowdepth sensor. Two radar level sensors are installed at the outlet of Imja Lake and downstream of Imja river for water level measurement. Also, ten movements and volumetric water content sensors are installed to detect occurrence of any GLOF event.

Validation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score in Hospitalized Pediatric Oncology and Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant Patients.

PubMed

Agulnik, Asya; Forbes, Peter W; Stenquist, Nicole; Rodriguez-Galindo, Carlos; Kleinman, Monica

2016-04-01

To evaluate the correlation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score with unplanned transfer to the PICU in hospitalized oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients. We performed a retrospective matched case-control study, comparing the highest documented Pediatric Early Warning Score within 24 hours prior to unplanned PICU transfers in hospitalized pediatric oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients between September 2011 and December 2013. Controls were patients who remained on the inpatient unit and were matched 2:1 using age, condition (oncology vs hematopoietic stem cell transplant), and length of hospital stay. Pediatric Early Warning Scores were documented by nursing staff at least every 4 hours as part of routine care. Need for transfer was determined by a PICU physician called to evaluate the patient. A large tertiary/quaternary free-standing academic children's hospital. One hundred ten hospitalized pediatric oncology patients (42 oncology, 68 hematopoietic stem cell transplant) requiring unplanned PICU transfer and 220 matched controls. None. Using the highest score in the 24 hours prior to transfer for cases and a matched time period for controls, the Pediatric Early Warning Score was highly correlated with the need for PICU transfer overall (area under the receiver operating characteristic = 0.96), and in the oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant groups individually (area under the receiver operating characteristic = 0.95 and 0.96, respectively). The difference in Pediatric Early Warning Score results between the cases and controls was noted as early as 24 hours prior to PICU admission. Seventeen patients died (15.4%). Patients with higher Pediatric Early Warning Scores prior to transfer had increased PICU mortality (p = 0.028) and length of stay (p = 0.004). We demonstrate that our institution's Pediatric Early Warning Score is highly correlated with the need for unplanned PICU transfer in hospitalized oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients. Furthermore, we found an association between higher scores and PICU mortality. This is the first validation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score specific to the pediatric oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant populations, and supports the use of Pediatric Early Warning Scores as a method of early identification of clinical deterioration in this high-risk population.

Exploring the Role of Social Memory of Floods for Designing Flood Early Warning Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girons Lopez, Marc; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Grabs, Thomas; Halldin, Sven; Seibert, Jan

2016-04-01

Early warning systems are an important tool for natural disaster mitigation practices, especially for flooding events. Warnings rely on near-future forecasts to provide time to take preventive actions before a flood occurs, thus reducing potential losses. However, on top of the technical capacities, successful warnings require an efficient coordination and communication among a range of different actors and stakeholders. The complexity of integrating the technical and social spheres of warning systems has, however, resulted in system designs neglecting a number of important aspects such as social awareness of floods thus leading to suboptimal results. A better understanding of the interactions and feedbacks among the different elements of early warning systems is therefore needed to improve their efficiency and therefore social resilience. When designing an early warning system two important decisions need to be made regarding (i) the hazard magnitude at and from which a warning should be issued and (ii) the degree of confidence required for issuing a warning. The first decision is usually taken based on the social vulnerability and climatic variability while the second one is related to the performance (i.e. accuracy) of the forecasting tools. Consequently, by estimating the vulnerability and the accuracy of the forecasts, these two variables can be optimized to minimize the costs and losses. Important parameters with a strong influence on the efficiency of warning systems such as social awareness are however not considered in their design. In this study we present a theoretical exploration of the impact of social awareness on the design of early warning systems. For this purpose we use a definition of social memory of flood events as a proxy for flood risk awareness and test its effect on the optimization of the warning system design variables. Understanding the impact of social awareness on warning system design is important to make more robust warnings that can better adapt to different social settings and more efficiently reduce vulnerability.

Early Warning for Large Magnitude Earthquakes: Is it feasible?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zollo, A.; Colombelli, S.; Kanamori, H.

2011-12-01

The mega-thrust, Mw 9.0, 2011 Tohoku earthquake has re-opened the discussion among the scientific community about the effectiveness of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems, when applied to such large events. Many EEW systems are now under-testing or -development worldwide and most of them are based on the real-time measurement of ground motion parameters in a few second window after the P-wave arrival. Currently, we are using the initial Peak Displacement (Pd), and the Predominant Period (τc), among other parameters, to rapidly estimate the earthquake magnitude and damage potential. A well known problem about the real-time estimation of the magnitude is the parameter saturation. Several authors have shown that the scaling laws between early warning parameters and magnitude are robust and effective up to magnitude 6.5-7; the correlation, however, has not yet been verified for larger events. The Tohoku earthquake occurred near the East coast of Honshu, Japan, on the subduction boundary between the Pacific and the Okhotsk plates. The high quality Kik- and K- networks provided a large quantity of strong motion records of the mainshock, with a wide azimuthal coverage both along the Japan coast and inland. More than 300 3-component accelerograms have been available, with an epicentral distance ranging from about 100 km up to more than 500 km. This earthquake thus presents an optimal case study for testing the physical bases of early warning and to investigate the feasibility of a real-time estimation of earthquake size and damage potential even for M > 7 earthquakes. In the present work we used the acceleration waveform data of the main shock for stations along the coast, up to 200 km epicentral distance. We measured the early warning parameters, Pd and τc, within different time windows, starting from 3 seconds, and expanding the testing time window up to 30 seconds. The aim is to verify the correlation of these parameters with Peak Ground Velocity and Magnitude, respectively, as a function of the length of the P-wave window. The entire rupture process of the Tohoku earthquake lasted more than 120 seconds, as shown by the source time functions obtained by several authors. When a 3 second window is used to measure Pd and τc the result is an obvious underestimation of the event size and final PGV. However, as the time window increases up to 27-30 seconds, the measured values of Pd and τc become comparable with those expected for a magnitude M≥8.5 earthquake, according to the τc vs. M and the PGV vs. Pd relationships obtained in a previous work. Since we did not observe any saturation effect for the predominant period and peak displacement measured within a P-wave, 30-seconds window, we infer that, at least from a theoretical point of view, the estimation of earthquake damage potential through the early warning parameters is still feasible for large events, provided that a longer time window is used for parameter measurement. The off-line analysis of the Tohoku event records shows that reliable estimations of the damage potential could have been obtained 40-50 seconds after the origin time, by updating the measurements of the early warning parameters in progressively enlarged P-wave time windows from 3 to 30 seconds.

Managing Risks? Early Warning Systems for Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sitati, A. M.; Zommers, Z. A.; Habilov, M.

2014-12-01

Early warning systems are a tool with which to minimize risks posed by climate related hazards. Although great strides have been made in developing early warning systems most deal with one hazard, only provide short-term warnings and do not reach the most vulnerable. This presentation will review research results of the United Nations Environment Programme's CLIM-WARN project. The project seeks to identify how governments can better communicate risks by designing multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver actionable warnings across timescales. Household surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso in order to identify relevant climate related hazards, current response strategies and early warning needs. Preliminary results show significant variability in both risks and needs within and between countries. For instance, floods are more frequent in rural western parts of Kenya. Droughts are frequent in the north while populations in urban areas face a range of hazards - floods, droughts, disease outbreaks - that sometimes occur simultaneously. The majority of the rural population, especially women, the disabled and the elderly, do not have access to modern media such as radio, television, or internet. While 55% of rural populace never watches television, 64% of urban respondents watch television on a daily basis. Communities have different concepts of how to design warning systems. It will be a challenge for national governments to create systems that accommodate such diversity yet provide standard quality of service to all. There is a need for flexible and forward-looking early warning systems that deliver broader information about risks. Information disseminated through the system could not only include details of hazards, but also long-term adaptation options, general education, and health information, thus increasingly both capabilities and response options.

An improvement of the Earthworm Based Earthquake Alarm Reporting system in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, D. Y.; Hsiao, N. C.; Yih-Min, W.

2017-12-01

The Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan (CWB) has operated the Earthworm Based Earthquake Alarm Reporting (eBEAR) system for the purpose of earthquake early warning (EEW). The system has been used to report EEW messages to the general public since 2016 through text message from the mobile phones and the television programs. The system for inland earthquakes is able to provide accurate and fast warnings. The average epicenter error is about 5 km and the processing time is about 15 seconds. The epicenter error is defined as the distance between the epicenter estimated by the EEW system and the epicenter estimated by man. The processing time is defined as the time difference between the time earthquakes occurred and the time the system issued warning. The CWB seismic network consist about 200 seismic stations. In some area of Taiwan the distance between each seismic station is about 10 km. It means that when an earthquake occurred the seismic P wave is able to propagate through 6 stations, which is the minimum number of required stations in the EEW system, within 20 km. If the latency of data transmitting is about 1 sec, the P-wave velocity is about 6 km per sec and we take 3-sec length time window to estimate earthquake magnitude, then the processing should be around 8 sec. In fact, however, the average processing time is larger than this figure. Because some outliers of P-wave onset picks may exist in the beginning of the earthquake occurrence, the Geiger's method we used in the EEW system for earthquake location is not stable. It usually takes more time to wait for enough number of good picks. In this study we used grid search method to improve the estimations of earthquake location. The MAXEL algorithm (Sheen et al., 2015, 2016) was tested in the EEW system by simulating historical earthquakes occurred in Taiwan. The results show the processing time can be reduced and the location accuracy is acceptable for EEW purpose.

The Earthquake Early Warning System In Southern Italy: Performance Tests And Next Developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zollo, A.; Elia, L.; Martino, C.; Colombelli, S.; Emolo, A.; Festa, G.; Iannaccone, G.

2011-12-01

PRESTo (PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem) is the software platform for Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) in Southern Italy, that integrates recent algorithms for real-time earthquake location, magnitude estimation and damage assessment, into a highly configurable and easily portable package. The system is under active experimentation based on the Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet). PRESTo processes the live streams of 3C acceleration data for P-wave arrival detection and, while an event is occurring, promptly performs event detection and provides location, magnitude estimations and peak ground shaking predictions at target sites. The earthquake location is obtained by an evolutionary, real-time probabilistic approach based on an equal differential time formulation. At each time step, it uses information from both triggered and not-yet-triggered stations. Magnitude estimation exploits an empirical relationship that correlates it to the filtered Peak Displacement (Pd), measured over the first 2-4 s of P-signal. Peak ground-motion parameters at any distance can be finally estimated by ground motion prediction equations. Alarm messages containing the updated estimates of these parameters can thus reach target sites before the destructive waves, enabling automatic safety procedures. Using the real-time data streaming from the ISNet network, PRESTo has produced a bulletin for about a hundred low-magnitude events occurred during last two years. Meanwhile, the performances of the EEW system were assessed off-line playing-back the records for moderate and large events from Italy, Spain and Japan and synthetic waveforms for large historical events in Italy. These tests have shown that, when a dense seismic network is deployed in the fault area, PRESTo produces reliable estimates of earthquake location and size within 5-6 s from the event origin time (To). Estimates are provided as probability density functions whose uncertainty typically decreases with time, obtaining a stable solution within 10 s from To. The regional approach was recently integrated with a threshold-based early warning method for the definition of alert levels and the estimation of the Potential Damaged Zone (PDZ) in which the highest intensity levels are expected. The dominant period Tau_c and the peak displacement (Pd) are simultaneously measured in a 3s window after the first P-arrival time. Pd and Tau_c are then compared with threshold values, previously established through an empirical regression analysis, that define a decisional table with four alert levels. According to the real-time measured values of Pd and tau_c, each station provides a local alert level that can be used to warn distant sites and to define the extent of the PDZ. The integrated system was validated off-line for the M6.3, 2009 Central Italy earthquake and ten large Japanese events, due to the low-magnitude events currently occurring in Irpinia. The results confirmed the feasibility and the robustness of such an approach, providing reliable predictions of the earthquake damaging effects, that is a relevant information for the efficient planning of the rescue operations in the immediate post-event emergency phase.

Early warning system for Douglas-fir tussock moth outbreaks in the Western United States.

Treesearch

Gary E. Daterman; John M. Wenz; Katharine A. Sheehan

2004-01-01

The Early Warning System is a pheromone-based trapping system used to detect outbreaks of Douglas-fir tussock moth (DFTM, Orgyia pseudotsugata) in the western United States. Millions of acres are susceptible to DFTM defoliation, but Early Warning System monitoring focuses attention only on the relatively limited areas where outbreaks may be...

Detecting Tsunami Source Energy and Scales from GNSS & Laboratory Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Y. T.; Yim, S. C.; Mohtat, A.

2016-12-01

Historically, tsunami warnings based on the earthquake magnitude have not been very accurate. According to the 2006 U.S. Government Accountability Office report, an unacceptable 75% false alarm rate has prevailed in the Pacific Ocean (GAO-06-519). One of the main reasons for those inaccurate warnings is that an earthquake's magnitude is not the scale or power of the resulting tsunami. For the last 10 years, we have been developing both theories and algorithms to detect tsunami source energy and scales, instead of earthquake magnitudes per se, directly from real-time Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations along coastlines for early warnings [Song 2007; Song et al., 2008; Song et al., 2012; Xu and Song 2013; Titov et al, 2016]. Here we will report recent progress on two fronts: 1) Examples of using GNSS in detecting the tsunami energy scales for the 2004 Sumatra M9.1 earthquake, the 2005 Nias M8.7 earthquake, the 2010 M8.8 Chilean earthquake, the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, and the 2015 M8.3 Illapel earthquake. 2) New results from recent state-of-the-art wave-maker experiments and comparisons with GNSS data will also be presented. Related reference: Titov, V., Y. T. Song, L. Tang, E. N. Bernard, Y. Bar-Sever, and Y. Wei (2016), Consistent estimates of tsunami energy show promise for improved early warning, Pur Appl. Geophs., DOI: 10.1007/s00024-016-1312-1. Xu, Z. and Y. T. Song (2013), Combining the all-source Green's functions and the GPS-derived source for fast tsunami prediction - illustrated by the March 2011 Japan tsunami, J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech., jtechD1200201. Song, Y. T., I. Fukumori, C. K. Shum, and Y. Yi (2012), Merging tsunamis of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake detected over the open ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2011GL050767. Song, Y. T., L.-L. Fu, V. Zlotnicki, C. Ji, V. Hjorleifsdottir, C.K. Shum, and Y. Yi, 2008: The role of horizontal impulses of the faulting continental slope in generating the 26 December 2004 Tsunami (2007), Ocean Modelling, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2007.10.007. Song, Y. T. (2007) Detecting tsunami genesis and scales directly from coastal GPS stations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L19602, doi:10.1029/2007GL031681.

Body size shifts and early warning signals precede the historic collapse of whale stocks.

PubMed

Clements, Christopher F; Blanchard, Julia L; Nash, Kirsty L; Hindell, Mark A; Ozgul, Arpat

2017-06-22

Predicting population declines is a key challenge in the face of global environmental change. Abundance-based early warning signals have been shown to precede population collapses; however, such signals are sensitive to the low reliability of abundance estimates. Here, using historical data on whales harvested during the 20th century, we demonstrate that early warning signals can be present not only in the abundance data, but also in the more reliable body size data of wild populations. We show that during the period of commercial whaling, the mean body size of caught whales declined dramatically (by up to 4 m over a 70-year period), leading to early warning signals being detectable up to 40 years before the global collapse of whale stocks. Combining abundance and body size data can reduce the length of the time series required to predict collapse, and decrease the chances of false positive early warning signals.

Multiple-Threshold Event Detection and Other Enhancements to the Virtual Seismologist (VS) Earthquake Early Warning Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, M.; Caprio, M.; Cua, G. B.; Heaton, T. H.; Clinton, J. F.; Wiemer, S.

2009-12-01

The Virtual Seismologist (VS) algorithm is a Bayesian approach to earthquake early warning (EEW) being implemented by the Swiss Seismological Service at ETH Zurich. The application of Bayes’ theorem in earthquake early warning states that the most probable source estimate at any given time is a combination of contributions from a likelihood function that evolves in response to incoming data from the on-going earthquake, and selected prior information, which can include factors such as network topology, the Gutenberg-Richter relationship or previously observed seismicity. The VS algorithm was one of three EEW algorithms involved in the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) real-time EEW testing and performance evaluation effort. Its compelling real-time performance in California over the last three years has led to its inclusion in the new USGS-funded effort to develop key components of CISN ShakeAlert, a prototype EEW system that could potentially be implemented in California. A significant portion of VS code development was supported by the SAFER EEW project in Europe. We discuss recent enhancements to the VS EEW algorithm. We developed and continue to test a multiple-threshold event detection scheme, which uses different association / location approaches depending on the peak amplitudes associated with an incoming P pick. With this scheme, an event with sufficiently high initial amplitudes can be declared on the basis of a single station, maximizing warning times for damaging events for which EEW is most relevant. Smaller, non-damaging events, which will have lower initial amplitudes, will require more picks to be declared an event to reduce false alarms. This transforms the VS codes from a regional EEW approach reliant on traditional location estimation (and it requirement of at least 4 picks as implemented by the Binder Earthworm phase associator) to a hybrid on-site/regional approach capable of providing a continuously evolving stream of EEW information starting from the first P-detection. Offline analysis on Swiss and California waveform datasets indicate that the multiple-threshold approach is faster and more reliable for larger events than the earlier version of the VS codes. This multiple-threshold approach is well-suited for implementation on a wide range of devices, from embedded processor systems installed at a seismic stations, to small autonomous networks for local warnings, to large-scale regional networks such as the CISN. In addition, we quantify the influence of systematic use of prior information and Vs30-based corrections for site amplification on VS magnitude estimation performance, and describe how components of the VS algorithm will be integrated into non-EEW standard network processing procedures at CHNet, the national broadband / strong motion network in Switzerland. These enhancements to the VS codes will be transitioned from off-line to real-time testing at CHNet in Europe in the coming months, and will be incorporated into the development of key components of CISN ShakeAlert prototype system in California.

Landslide risk mitigation by means of early warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvello, Michele

2017-04-01

Among the many options available to mitigate landslide risk, early warning systems may be used where, in specific circumstances, the risk to life increases above tolerable levels. A coherent framework to classify and analyse landslide early warning systems (LEWS) is herein presented. Once the objectives of an early warning strategy are defined depending on the scale of analysis and the type of landslides to address, the process of designing and managing a LEWS should synergically employ technical and social skills. A classification scheme for the main components of LEWSs is proposed for weather-induced landslides. The scheme is based on a clear distinction among: i) the landslide model, i.e. a functional relationship between weather characteristics and landslide events considering the geotechnical, geomorphological and hydro-geological characterization of the area as well as an adequate monitoring strategy; ii) the warning model, i.e. the landslide model plus procedures to define the warning events and to issue the warnings; iii) the warning system, i.e. the warning model plus warning dissemination procedures, communication and education tools, strategies for community involvement and emergency plans. Each component of a LEWS is related to a number of actors involved with their deployment, operational activities and management. For instance, communication and education, community involvement and emergency plans are all significantly influenced by people's risk perception and by operational aspects system managers need to address in cooperation with scientists.

Anatomy of Historical Tsunamis: Lessons Learned for Tsunami Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Igarashi, Y.; Kong, L.; Yamamoto, M.; McCreery, C. S.

2011-11-01

Tsunamis are high-impact disasters that can cause death and destruction locally within a few minutes of their occurrence and across oceans hours, even up to a day, afterward. Efforts to establish tsunami warning systems to protect life and property began in the Pacific after the 1946 Aleutian Islands tsunami caused casualties in Hawaii. Seismic and sea level data were used by a central control center to evaluate tsunamigenic potential and then issue alerts and warnings. The ensuing events of 1952, 1957, and 1960 tested the new system, which continued to expand and evolve from a United States system to an international system in 1965. The Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific (ITSU) steadily improved through the decades as more stations became available in real and near-real time through better communications technology and greater bandwidth. New analysis techniques, coupled with more data of higher quality, resulted in better detection, greater solution accuracy, and more reliable warnings, but limitations still exist in constraining the source and in accurately predicting propagation of the wave from source to shore. Tsunami event data collected over the last two decades through international tsunami science surveys have led to more realistic models for source generation and inundation, and within the warning centers, real-time tsunami wave forecasting will become a reality in the near future. The tsunami warning system is an international cooperative effort amongst countries supported by global and national monitoring networks and dedicated tsunami warning centers; the research community has contributed to the system by advancing and improving its analysis tools. Lessons learned from the earliest tsunamis provided the backbone for the present system, but despite 45 years of experience, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami reminded us that tsunamis strike and kill everywhere, not just in the Pacific. Today, a global intergovernmental tsunami warning system is coordinated under the United Nations. This paper reviews historical tsunamis, their warning activities, and their sea level records to highlight lessons learned with the focus on how these insights have helped to drive further development of tsunami warning systems and their tsunami warning centers. While the international systems do well for teletsunamis, faster detection, more accurate evaluations, and widespread timely alerts are still the goals, and challenges still remain to achieving early warning against the more frequent and destructive local tsunamis.

Laser Prevention of Earth Impact Disasters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, J.; Smalley, L.; Boccio, D.; Howell, Joe T. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

We now believe that while there are about 2000 earth orbit crossing rocks greater than 1 kilometer in diameter, there may be as many as 100,000 or more objects in the 100m size range. Can anything be done about this fundamental existence question facing us? The answer is a resounding yes! We have the technology to prevent collisions. By using an intelligent combination of Earth and space based sensors coupled with an infrastructure of high-energy laser stations and other secondary mitigation options, we can deflect inbound asteroids, meteoroids, and comets and prevent them from striking the Earth. This can be accomplished by irradiating the surface of an inbound rock with sufficiently intense pulses so that ablation occurs. This ablation acts as a small rocket incrementally changing the shape of the rock's orbit around the Sun. One-kilometer size rocks can be moved sufficiently in a month while smaller rocks may be moved in a shorter time span.We recommend that the World's space objectives be immediately reprioritized to start us moving quickly towards a multiple option defense capability. While lasers should be the primary approach, all mitigation options depend on robust early warning, detection, and tracking resources to find objects sufficiently prior to Earth orbit passage in time to allow mitigation. Infrastructure options should include ground, LEO, GEO, Lunar, and libration point laser and sensor stations for providing early warning, tracking, and deflection. Other options should include space interceptors that will carry both laser and nuclear ablators for close range work. Response options must be developed to deal with the consequences of an impact should we move too slowly.

Accuracy of a pediatric early warning score in the recognition of clinical deterioration.

PubMed

Miranda, Juliana de Oliveira Freitas; Camargo, Climene Laura de; Nascimento, Carlito Lopes; Portela, Daniel Sales; Monaghan, Alan

2017-07-10

to evaluate the accuracy of the version of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score translated and adapted for the Brazilian context, in the recognition of clinical deterioration. a diagnostic test study to measure the accuracy of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, in relation to a reference standard. The sample consisted of 271 children, aged 0 to 10 years, blindly evaluated by a nurse and a physician, specialists in pediatrics, with interval of 5 to 10 minutes between the evaluations, for the application of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context and of the reference standard. The data were processed and analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences and VassarStats.net programs. The performance of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context was evaluated through the indicators of sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, area under the ROC curve, likelihood ratios and post-test probability. the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context showed sensitivity of 73.9%, specificity of 95.5%, positive predictive value of 73.3%, negative predictive value of 94.7%, area under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve of 91.9% and the positive post-test probability was 80%. the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, presented good performance, considered valid for the recognition of clinical deterioration warning signs of the children studied. avaliar a acurácia da versão traduzida e adaptada do Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para o contexto brasileiro, no reconhecimento da deterioração clínica. estudo de teste diagnóstico para medir a acurácia do Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score, para o contexto brasileiro, em relação a um padrão de referência. A amostra foi composta por 271 crianças de 0 a 10 anos, avaliadas de forma cega por uma enfermeira e um médico, especialistas em pediatria, com intervalo de 5 a 10 minutos entre as avaliações, para aplicação do Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score, para o contexto brasileiro e do padrão de referência. Os dados foram processados e analisados nos programas Statistical Package for the Social Sciences e VassarStats.net. O desempenho do Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para o contexto brasileiro foi avaliado por meio dos indicadores de sensibilidade, especificidade, valores preditivos, área sob a curva ROC, razões de probabilidades e probabilidade pós-teste. o Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para o contexto brasileiro apresentou sensibilidade de 73,9%, especificidade de 95,5%, valor preditivo positivo de 73,3%, valor preditivo negativo de 94,7%, área sob a Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve de 91,9% e a probabilidade pós-teste positivo foi de 80%. o Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score, para o contexto brasileiro, apresentou bom desempenho, considerado válido para o reconhecimento de sinais de alerta de deterioração clínica das crianças estudadas. evaluar la precisión de la versión traducida y adaptada del Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para el contexto brasileño, en el reconocimiento de la deterioración clínica. estudio de test diagnóstico para medir la precisión del Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para el contexto brasileño, en relación a un estándar de referencia. La muestra estuvo compuesta por 271 niños de 0 a 10 años, evaluadas de forma ciega por especialistas en pediatría, una enfermera y un médico, con intervalo de 5 a 10 minutos entre las evaluaciones, para aplicación del Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para el contexto brasileño. Los datos fueron procesados y analizados en los programas Statistical Package for the Social Sciences y VassarStats.net. El desempeño del Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para el contexto brasileño fue evaluado por medio de los indicadores de sensibilidad, especificidad, valores predictivos, área debajo de la curva ROC, razones de probabilidades y probabilidad postest. el Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para el contexto brasileño presentó sensibilidad de 73,9%, especificidad de 95,5%, valor predictivo positivo de 73,3%, valor predictivo negativo de 94,7%, área bajo la Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve de 91,9% y la probabilidad postest positivo fue de 80%. el Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para el contexto brasileño, presentó buen desempeño, considerado válido para el reconocimiento de señales de alerta de deterioración clínica de los niños estudiados.

Combination of High Rate, Real-Time GNSS and Accelerometer Observations and Rapid Seismic Event Notification for Earthquake Early Warning and Volcano Monitoring with a Focus on the Pacific Rim.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimakov, L. G.; Passmore, P.; Raczka, J.; Alvarez, M.; Jackson, M.

2014-12-01

Scientific GNSS networks are moving towards a model of real-time data acquisition, epoch-by-epoch storage integrity, and on-board real-time position and displacement calculations. This new paradigm allows the integration of real-time, high-rate GNSS displacement information with acceleration and velocity data to create very high-rate displacement records. The mating of these two instruments allows the creation of a new, very high-rate (200 sps) displacement observable that has the full-scale displacement characteristics of GNSS and high-precision dynamic motions of seismic technologies. It is envisioned that these new observables can be used for earthquake early warning studies, volcano monitoring, and critical infrastructure monitoring applications. Our presentation will focus on the characteristics of GNSS, seismic, and strong motion sensors in high dynamic environments, including historic earthquakes in Southern California and the Pacific Rim, replicated on a shake table, over a range of displacements and frequencies. We will explore the optimum integration of these sensors from a filtering perspective including simple harmonic impulses over varying frequencies and amplitudes and under the dynamic conditions of various earthquake scenarios. In addition we will discuss implementation of a Rapid Seismic Event Notification System that provides quick delivery of digital data from seismic stations to the acquisition and processing center and a full data integrity model for real-time earthquake notification that provides warning prior to significant ground shaking.

A national survey of obstetric early warning systems in the United Kingdom: five years on.

PubMed

Isaacs, R A; Wee, M Y K; Bick, D E; Beake, S; Sheppard, Z A; Thomas, S; Hundley, V; Smith, G B; van Teijlingen, E; Thomas, P W

2014-07-01

The Confidential Enquiries into Maternal Deaths in the UK have recommended obstetric early warning systems for early identification of clinical deterioration to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality. This survey explored early warning systems currently used by maternity units in the UK. An electronic questionnaire was sent to all 205 lead obstetric anaesthetists under the auspices of the Obstetric Anaesthetists' Association, generating 130 (63%) responses. All respondents reported use of an obstetric early warning system, compared with 19% in a similar survey in 2007. Respondents agreed that the six most important physiological parameters to record were respiratory rate, heart rate, temperature, systolic and diastolic blood pressure and oxygen saturation. One hundred and eighteen (91%) lead anaesthetists agreed that early warning systems helped to prevent obstetric morbidity. Staffing pressures were perceived as the greatest barrier to their use, and improved audit, education and training for healthcare professionals were identified as priority areas. © 2014 The Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland.

The spectral absorption coefficient at 254 nm as a real-time early warning proxy for detecting faecal pollution events at alpine karst water resources.

PubMed

Stadler, H; Klock, E; Skritek, P; Mach, R L; Zerobin, W; Farnleitner, A H

2010-01-01

Because spring water quality from alpine karst aquifers can change very rapidly during event situations, water abstraction management has to be performed in near real-time. Four summer events (2005-2008) at alpine karst springs were investigated in detail in order to evaluate the spectral absorption coefficient at 254 nm (SAC254) as a real-time early warning proxy for faecal pollution. For the investigation Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO) Satellite-based data communication between portable hydrometeorological measuring stations and an automated microbiological sampling device was used. The method for event triggered microbial sampling and analyzing was already established and described in a previous paper. Data analysis including on-line event characterisation (i.e. precipitation, discharge, turbidity, SAC254) and comprehensive E. coli determination (n>800) indicated that SAC254 is a useful early warning proxy. Irrespective of the studied event situations SAC254 always increased 3 to 6 hours earlier than the onset of faecal pollution, featuring different correlation phases. Furthermore, it seems also possible to use SAC254 as a real-time proxy parameter for estimating the extent of faecal pollution after establishing specific spring and event-type calibrations that take into consideration the variability of the occurrence and the transferability of faecal material It should be highlighted that diffuse faecal pollution from wildlife and live stock sources was responsible for spring water contamination at the investigated catchments. In this respect, the SAC254 can also provide useful information to support microbial source tracking efforts where different situations of infiltration have to be investigated.

Never Use the Complete Search Space: a Concept to Enhance the Optimization Procedure for Monitoring Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bode, F.; Reuschen, S.; Nowak, W.

2015-12-01

Drinking-water well catchments include many potential sources of contaminations like gas stations or agriculture. Finding optimal positions of early-warning monitoring wells is challenging because there are various parameters (and their uncertainties) that influence the reliability and optimality of any suggested monitoring location or monitoring network.The overall goal of this project is to develop and establish a concept to assess, design and optimize early-warning systems within well catchments. Such optimal monitoring networks need to optimize three competing objectives: a high detection probability, which can be reached by maximizing the "field of vision" of the monitoring network, a long early-warning time such that there is enough time left to install counter measures after first detection, and the overall operating costs of the monitoring network, which should ideally be reduced to a minimum. The method is based on numerical simulation of flow and transport in heterogeneous porous media coupled with geostatistics and Monte-Carlo, scenario analyses for real data, respectively, wrapped up within the framework of formal multi-objective optimization using a genetic algorithm.In order to speed up the optimization process and to better explore the Pareto-front, we developed a concept that forces the algorithm to search only in regions of the search space where promising solutions can be expected. We are going to show how to define these regions beforehand, using knowledge of the optimization problem, but also how to define them independently of problem attributes. With that, our method can be used with and/or without detailed knowledge of the objective functions.In summary, our study helps to improve optimization results in less optimization time by meaningful restrictions of the search space. These restrictions can be done independently of the optimization problem, but also in a problem-specific manner.

New Coastal Tsunami Gauges: Application at Augustine Volcano, Cook Inlet, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burgy, M.; Bolton, D. K.

2006-12-01

Recent eruptive activity at Augustine Volcano and its associated tsunami threat to lower Cook Inlet pointed out the need for a quickly deployable tsunami detector which could be installed on Augustine Island's coast. The detector's purpose would be to verify tsunami generation by direct observation of the wave at the source to support tsunami warning decisions along populated coastlines. To fill this need the Tsunami Mobile Alert Real-Time (TSMART) system was developed at NOAA's West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center with support from the University of Alaska Tsunami Warning and Environmental Observatory for Alaska program (TWEAK) and the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO). The TSMART system consists of a pressure sensor installed as near as possible to the low tide line. The sensor is enclosed in a water-tight hypalon bag filled with propylene-glycol to prevent silt damage to the sensor and freezing. The bag is enclosed in a perforated, strong plastic pipe about 16 inches long and 8 inches in diameter enclosed at both ends for protection. The sensor is cabled to a data logger/radio/power station up to 300 feet distant. Data are transmitted to a base station and made available to the warning center in real-time through the internet. This data telemetry system can be incorporated within existing AVO and Plate Boundary Observatory networks which makes it ideal for volcano-tsunami monitoring. A TSMART network can be utilized anywhere in the world within 120 miles of an internet connection. At Augustine, two test stations were installed on the east side of the island in August 2006. The sensors were located very near the low tide limit and covered with rock, and the cable was buried to the data logger station which was located well above high tide mark. Data logger, radio, battery and other electronics are housed in an enclosure mounted to a pole which also supports an antenna and solar panel. Radio signal is transmitted to a repeater station higher up on the island which then transmits the data to a base station in Homer, Alaska. Sea level data values are transmitted every 15 seconds and displayed at the tsunami warning center in Palmer, Alaska.

Recent improvements in earthquake and tsunami monitoring in the Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gee, L.; Green, D.; McNamara, D.; Whitmore, P.; Weaver, J.; Huang, P.; Benz, H.

2007-12-01

Following the catastrophic loss of life from the December 26, 2004, Sumatra-Andaman Islands earthquake and tsunami, the U.S. Government appropriated funds to improve monitoring along a major portion of vulnerable coastal regions in the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Atlantic Ocean. Partners in this project include the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN), the Seismic Research Unit of the University of the West Indies, and other collaborating institutions in the Caribbean region. As part of this effort, the USGS is coordinating with Caribbean host nations to design and deploy nine new broadband and strong-motion seismic stations. The instrumentation consists of an STS-2 seismometer, an Episensor accelerometer, and a Q330 high resolution digitizer. Six stations are currently transmitting data to the USGS National Earthquake Information Center, where the data are redistributed to the NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers, regional monitoring partners, and the IRIS Data Management Center. Operating stations include: Isla Barro Colorado, Panama; Gun Hill Barbados; Grenville, Grenada; Guantanamo Bay, Cuba; Sabaneta Dam, Dominican Republic; and Tegucigalpa, Honduras. Three additional stations in Barbuda, Grand Turks, and Jamaica will be completed during the fall of 2007. These nine stations are affiliates of the Global Seismographic Network (GSN) and complement existing GSN stations as well as regional stations. The new seismic stations improve azimuthal coverage, increase network density, and provide on-scale recording throughout the region. Complementary to this network, NOAA has placed Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) stations at sites in regions with a history of generating destructive tsunamis. Recently, NOAA completed deployment of 7 DART stations off the coasts of Montauk Pt, NY; Charleston, SC; Miami, FL; San Juan, Puerto Rico; New Orleans, LA; and Bermuda as part of the U.S. tsunami warning system expansion. DART systems consist of an anchored seafloor pressure recorder (BPR) and a companion moored surface buoy for real-time communications. The new stations are a second-generation design (DART II) equipped with two- way satellite communications that allow NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers to set stations in event mode in anticipation of possible tsunamis or retrieve the high-resolution (15-s intervals) data in one-hour blocks for detailed analysis. Combined with development of sophisticated wave propagation and site-specific inundation models, the DART data are being used to forecast wave heights for at-risk coastal communities. NOAA expects to deploy a total of 39 DART II buoy stations by 2008 (32 in the Pacific and 7 in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf regions). The seismic and DART networks are two components in a comprehensive and fully-operational global observing system to detect and warn the public of earthquake and tsunami threats. NOAA and USGS are working together to make important strides in enhancing communication networks so residents and visitors can receive earthquake and tsunami watches and warnings around the clock.

Determination of broadband moment magnitude (Mwp) for August 11, 2009 Suruga-Bay earthquake (MJMA=6.5)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsuboi, S.; Hirshorn, B. F.

2009-12-01

We have determined Mwp for the August 11, 2009 Suruga-Bay earthquake (MJMA=6.5) using broadband seismograms recorded at close epicentral distance stations. We have used two broadband seismograph stations: JHJ2 (epicentral distance 1.9 degree) and FUJ (epicentral distance 0.44 degree). Because of the close epicentral distance of FUJ, the seismogram is clipped at about 10 second after the P-wave arrival. However, it was possible to use the first 10 second of this seismogram to compute Mwp. We get Mwp=6.4 for JHJ2 and 6.8 for FUJ(figure 1). After we apply Whitmore et al (2000)’s correction and average these two stations, we get Mwp=6.6 for this event. The epicentral distance of 0.44 degree for magnitude 6.5 earthquake is marginal to treat this seismogram as far-field. However, considering the aftershock distribution, the fault area seems to be limited to within the Suruga-Bay, which may confirm the fact that Mwp can be successfully computed at FUJ based on the far-field approximation. This result is significant in using Mwp from close epicentral distance seismograms to issue early tsunami warning. A large earthquake with Mw=7.5 (GCMT) occurred in Andaman Island, India, 10 minutes before this Suruga-Bay event. This made it very difficult to estimate Mwp for the Suruga-Bay event from broadband seismograms at teleseismic distances because of the large amplitude of Mw7.5 Andaman Island earthquake. In this case, it is therefore difficult to issue accurate tsunami warnings based on the teleseismic stations. We used broadband seismograms recorded by F-net operated by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention.

Detecting Tsunami Genesis and Scales Directly from Coastal GPS Stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Y. Tony

2013-04-01

Different from the conventional approach to tsunami warnings that rely on earthquake magnitude estimates, we have found that coastal GPS stations are able to detect continental slope displacements of faulting due to big earthquakes, and that the detected seafloor displacements are able to determine tsunami source energy and scales instantaneously. This method has successfully replicated several historical tsunamis caused by the 2004 Sumatra earthquake, the 2005 Nias earthquake, the 2010 Chilean earthquake, and the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, respectively, and has been compared favorably with the conventional seismic solutions that usually take hours or days to get through inverting seismographs (reference listed). Because many coastal GPS stations are already in operation for measuring ground motions in real time as often as once every few seconds, this study suggests a practical way of identifying tsunamigenic earthquakes for early warnings and reducing false alarms. Reference Song, Y. T., 2007: Detecting tsunami genesis and scales directly from coastal GPS stations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L19602, doi:10.1029/2007GL031681. Song, Y. T., L.-L. Fu, V. Zlotnicki, C. Ji, V. Hjorleifsdottir, C.K. Shum, and Y. Yi, 2008: The role of horizontal impulses of the faulting continental slope in generating the 26 December 2004 Tsunami, Ocean Modelling, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2007.10.007. Song, Y. T. and S.C. Han, 2011: Satellite observations defying the long-held tsunami genesis theory, D.L. Tang (ed.), Remote Sensing of the Changing Oceans, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-16541-2, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Song, Y. T., I. Fukumori, C. K. Shum, and Y. Yi, 2012: Merging tsunamis of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake detected over the open ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2011GL050767 (Nature Highlights, March 8, 2012).

Early warning, warning or alarm systems for natural hazards? A generic classification.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sättele, Martina; Bründl, Michael; Straub, Daniel

2013-04-01

Early warning, warning and alarm systems have gained popularity in recent years as cost-efficient measures for dangerous natural hazard processes such as floods, storms, rock and snow avalanches, debris flows, rock and ice falls, landslides, flash floods, glacier lake outburst floods, forest fires and even earthquakes. These systems can generate information before an event causes loss of property and life. In this way, they mainly mitigate the overall risk by reducing the presence probability of endangered objects. These systems are typically prototypes tailored to specific project needs. Despite their importance there is no recognised system classification. This contribution classifies warning and alarm systems into three classes: i) threshold systems, ii) expert systems and iii) model-based expert systems. The result is a generic classification, which takes the characteristics of the natural hazard process itself and the related monitoring possibilities into account. The choice of the monitoring parameters directly determines the system's lead time. The classification of 52 active systems moreover revealed typical system characteristics for each system class. i) Threshold systems monitor dynamic process parameters of ongoing events (e.g. water level of a debris flow) and incorporate minor lead times. They have a local geographical coverage and a predefined threshold determines if an alarm is automatically activated to warn endangered objects, authorities and system operators. ii) Expert systems monitor direct changes in the variable disposition (e.g crack opening before a rock avalanche) or trigger events (e.g. heavy rain) at a local scale before the main event starts and thus offer extended lead times. The final alarm decision incorporates human, model and organisational related factors. iii) Model-based expert systems monitor indirect changes in the variable disposition (e.g. snow temperature, height or solar radiation that influence the occurrence probability of snow avalanches) or trigger events (e.g. heavy snow fall) to predict spontaneous hazard events in advance. They encompass regional or national measuring networks and satisfy additional demands such as the standardisation of the measuring stations. The developed classification and the characteristics, which were revealed for each class, yield a valuable input to quantifying the reliability of warning and alarm systems. Importantly, this will facilitate to compare them with well-established standard mitigation measures such as dams, nets and galleries within an integrated risk management approach.

Floods in 2002 and 2013: comparing flood warnings and emergency measures from the perspective of affected parties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreibich, Heidi; Pech, Ina; Schröter, Kai; Müller, Meike; Thieken, Annegret

2016-04-01

Early warning is essential for protecting people and mitigating damage in case of flood events. However, early warning is only helpful if the flood-endangered parties are reached by the warning and if they know how to react effectively. Finding suitable methods for communicating helpful warnings to the "last mile" remains a challenge, but not much information is available. Surveys were undertaken after the August 2002 and the June 2013 floods in Germany, asking affected private households and companies about warnings they received and emergency measures they undertook. Results show, that in 2002 early warning did not work well: in too many areas warnings came too late or were too imprecise and many people (27%) and companies (45%) did not receive a flood warning. Afterwards, the warning systems were significantly improved, so that in 2013 only a small share of the affected people (7%) and companies (7 %) was not reached by any warning. Additionally, private households and companies were hardly aware of the flood risk in the Elbe catchment before 2002, mainly due to a lack of flood experience. For instance, in 2002 only 14% of private households clearly knew how to protect themselves and their assets when the warning reached them, in 2013 this fraction was 46 %. Although the share of companies which had an emergency plan in place had increased from 10 % in 2002 to 26 % in 2013, and the share of those conducting regular emergency exercises had increased from 4 % to 13 %, there is still plenty of room for improvement. Therefore, integrated early warning systems from monitoring through to the reaction of the affected parties as well as effective risk and emergency communication need continuous further improvement to protect people and mitigate residual risks in case of floods.

Neonatal Early Warning Tools for recognising and responding to clinical deterioration in neonates cared for in the maternity setting: A retrospective case-control study.

PubMed

Paliwoda, Michelle; New, Karen; Bogossian, Fiona

2016-09-01

All newborns are at risk of deterioration as a result of failing to make the transition to extra uterine life. Signs of deterioration can be subtle and easily missed. It has been postulated that the use of an Early Warning Tool may assist clinicians in recognising and responding to signs of deterioration earlier in neonates, thereby preventing a serious adverse event. To examine whether observations from a Standard Observation Tool, applied to three neonatal Early Warning Tools, would hypothetically trigger an escalation of care more frequently than actual escalation of care using the Standard Observation Tool. A retrospective case-control study. A maternity unit in a tertiary public hospital in Australia. Neonates born in 2013 of greater than or equal to 34(+0) weeks gestation, admitted directly to the maternity ward from their birthing location and whose subsequent deterioration required admission to the neonatal unit, were identified as cases from databases of the study hospital. Each case was matched with three controls, inborn during the same period and who did not experience deterioration and neonatal unit admission. Clinical and physiological data recorded on a Standard Observation Tool, from time of admission to the maternity ward, for cases and controls were charted onto each of three Early Warning Tools. The primary outcome was whether the tool 'triggered an escalation of care'. Descriptive statistics (n, %, Mean and SD) were employed. Cases (n=26) comprised late preterm, early term and post-term neonates and matched by gestational age group with 3 controls (n=78). Overall, the Standard Observation Tool triggered an escalation of care for 92.3% of cases compared to the Early Warning Tools; New South Wales Health 80.8%, United Kingdom Newborn Early Warning Chart 57.7% and The Australian Capital Territory Neonatal Early Warning Score 11.5%. Subgroup analysis by gestational age found differences between the tools in hypothetically triggering an escalation of care. The Standard Observation Tool triggered an escalation of care more frequently than the Early Warning Tools, which may be as a result of behavioural data captured on the Standard Observation Tool and escalated, which could not be on the Early Warning Tools. Findings demonstrate that a single tool applied to all gestational age ranges may not be effective in identifying early deterioration or may over trigger an escalation of care. Further research is required into the sensitivity and specificity of Early Warning Tools in neonatal sub-populations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Magnitude And Distance Determination From The First Few Seconds Of One Three Components Seismological Station Signal Using Support Vector Machine Regression Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ochoa Gutierrez, L. H.; Vargas Jimenez, C. A.; Niño Vasquez, L. F.

2011-12-01

The "Sabana de Bogota" (Bogota Savannah) is the most important social and economical center of Colombia. Almost the third of population is concentrated in this region and generates about the 40% of Colombia's Internal Brute Product (IBP). According to this, the zone presents an elevated vulnerability in case that a high destructive seismic event occurs. Historical evidences show that high magnitude events took place in the past with a huge damage caused to the city and indicate that is probable that such events can occur in the next years. This is the reason why we are working in an early warning generation system, using the first few seconds of a seismic signal registered by three components and wide band seismometers. Such system can be implemented using Computational Intelligence tools, designed and calibrated to the particular Geological, Structural and environmental conditions present in the region. The methods developed are expected to work on real time, thus suitable software and electronic tools need to be developed. We used Support Vector Machines Regression (SVMR) methods trained and tested with historic seismic events registered by "EL ROSAL" Station, located near Bogotá, calculating descriptors or attributes as the input of the model, from the first 6 seconds of signal. With this algorithm, we obtained less than 10% of mean absolute error and correlation coefficients greater than 85% in hypocentral distance and Magnitude estimation. With this results we consider that we can improve the method trying to have better accuracy with less signal time and that this can be a very useful model to be implemented directly in the seismological stations to generate a fast characterization of the event, broadcasting not only raw signal but pre-processed information that can be very useful for accurate Early Warning Generation.

A New Network-Based Approach for the Earthquake Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandro, C.; Zollo, A.; Colombelli, S.; Elia, L.

2017-12-01

Here we propose a new method which allows for issuing an early warning based upon the real-time mapping of the Potential Damage Zone (PDZ), e.g. the epicentral area where the peak ground velocity is expected to exceed the damaging or strong shaking levels with no assumption about the earthquake rupture extent and spatial variability of ground motion. The system includes the techniques for a refined estimation of the main source parameters (earthquake location and magnitude) and for an accurate prediction of the expected ground shaking level. The system processes the 3-component, real-time ground acceleration and velocity data streams at each station. For stations providing high quality data, the characteristic P-wave period (τc) and the P-wave displacement, velocity and acceleration amplitudes (Pd, Pv and Pa) are jointly measured on a progressively expanded P-wave time window. The evolutionary estimate of these parameters at stations around the source allow to predict the geometry and extent of PDZ, but also of the lower shaking intensity regions at larger epicentral distances. This is done by correlating the measured P-wave amplitude with the Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) and Instrumental Intensity (IMM) and by interpolating the measured and predicted P-wave amplitude at a dense spatial grid, including the nodes of the accelerometer/velocimeter array deployed in the earthquake source area. Depending of the network density and spatial source coverage, this method naturally accounts for effects related to the earthquake rupture extent (e.g. source directivity) and spatial variability of strong ground motion related to crustal wave propagation and site amplification. We have tested this system by a retrospective analysis of three earthquakes: 2016 Italy 6.5 Mw, 2008 Iwate-Miyagi 6.9 Mw and 2011 Tohoku 9.0 Mw. Source parameters characterization are stable and reliable, also the intensity map shows extended source effects consistent with kinematic fracture models of evets.

Early warning signals of regime shifts in coupled human–environment systems

PubMed Central

Bauch, Chris T.; Sigdel, Ram; Pharaon, Joe; Anand, Madhur

2016-01-01

In complex systems, a critical transition is a shift in a system’s dynamical regime from its current state to a strongly contrasting state as external conditions move beyond a tipping point. These transitions are often preceded by characteristic early warning signals such as increased system variability. However, early warning signals in complex, coupled human–environment systems (HESs) remain little studied. Here, we compare critical transitions and their early warning signals in a coupled HES model to an equivalent environment model uncoupled from the human system. We parameterize the HES model, using social and ecological data from old-growth forests in Oregon. We find that the coupled HES exhibits a richer variety of dynamics and regime shifts than the uncoupled environment system. Moreover, the early warning signals in the coupled HES can be ambiguous, heralding either an era of ecosystem conservationism or collapse of both forest ecosystems and conservationism. The presence of human feedback in the coupled HES can also mitigate the early warning signal, making it more difficult to detect the oncoming regime shift. We furthermore show how the coupled HES can be “doomed to criticality”: Strategic human interactions cause the system to remain perpetually in the vicinity of a collapse threshold, as humans become complacent when the resource seems protected but respond rapidly when it is under immediate threat. We conclude that the opportunities, benefits, and challenges of modeling regime shifts and early warning signals in coupled HESs merit further research. PMID:27815533

47 CFR 80.1133 - Transmission of safety communications.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... SERVICES STATIONS IN THE MARITIME SERVICES Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS) Operating... calling station has an important navigational or meteorological warning to transmit. (e) In radiotelephony...

47 CFR 80.1133 - Transmission of safety communications.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... SERVICES STATIONS IN THE MARITIME SERVICES Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS) Operating... calling station has an important navigational or meteorological warning to transmit. (e) In radiotelephony...

47 CFR 80.1133 - Transmission of safety communications.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... SERVICES STATIONS IN THE MARITIME SERVICES Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS) Operating... calling station has an important navigational or meteorological warning to transmit. (e) In radiotelephony...

47 CFR 80.1133 - Transmission of safety communications.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... SERVICES STATIONS IN THE MARITIME SERVICES Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS) Operating... calling station has an important navigational or meteorological warning to transmit. (e) In radiotelephony...

Web-based Tsunami Early Warning System with instant Tsunami Propagation Calculations in the GPU Cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammitzsch, M.; Spazier, J.; Reißland, S.

2014-12-01

Usually, tsunami early warning and mitigation systems (TWS or TEWS) are based on several software components deployed in a client-server based infrastructure. The vast majority of systems importantly include desktop-based clients with a graphical user interface (GUI) for the operators in early warning centers. However, in times of cloud computing and ubiquitous computing the use of concepts and paradigms, introduced by continuously evolving approaches in information and communications technology (ICT), have to be considered even for early warning systems (EWS). Based on the experiences and the knowledge gained in three research projects - 'German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System' (GITEWS), 'Distant Early Warning System' (DEWS), and 'Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises' (TRIDEC) - new technologies are exploited to implement a cloud-based and web-based prototype to open up new prospects for EWS. This prototype, named 'TRIDEC Cloud', merges several complementary external and in-house cloud-based services into one platform for automated background computation with graphics processing units (GPU), for web-mapping of hazard specific geospatial data, and for serving relevant functionality to handle, share, and communicate threat specific information in a collaborative and distributed environment. The prototype in its current version addresses tsunami early warning and mitigation. The integration of GPU accelerated tsunami simulation computations have been an integral part of this prototype to foster early warning with on-demand tsunami predictions based on actual source parameters. However, the platform is meant for researchers around the world to make use of the cloud-based GPU computation to analyze other types of geohazards and natural hazards and react upon the computed situation picture with a web-based GUI in a web browser at remote sites. The current website is an early alpha version for demonstration purposes to give the concept a whirl and to shape science's future. Further functionality, improvements and possible profound changes have to implemented successively based on the users' evolving needs.

Landslide monitoring and early warning systems in Lower Austria - current situation and new developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiebes, Benni; Glade, Thomas; Schweigl, Joachim; Jäger, Stefan; Canli, Ekrem

2014-05-01

Landslides represent significant hazards in the mountainous areas of Austria. The Regional Geological Surveys are responsible to inform and protect the population, and to mitigate damage to infrastructure. Efforts of the Regional Geological Survey of Lower Austria include detailed site investigations, the planning and installation of protective structures (e.g. rock fall nets) as well as preventive measures such as regional scale landslide susceptibility assessments. For potentially endangered areas, where protection works are not feasible or would simply be too costly, monitoring systems have been installed. However, these systems are dominantly not automatic and require regular field visits to take measurements. Therefore, it is difficult to establish any relation between initiating and controlling factors, thus to fully understand the underlying process mechanism which is essential for any early warning system. Consequently, the implementation of new state-of-the-art monitoring and early warning systems has been started. In this presentation, the design of four landslide monitoring and early warning systems is introduced. The investigated landslide process types include a deep-seated landslide, a rock fall site, a complex earth flow, and a debris flow catchment. The monitoring equipment was chosen depending on the landslide processes and their activity. It aims to allow for a detailed investigation of process mechanisms in relation to its triggers and for reliable prediction of future landslide activities. The deep-seated landslide will be investigated by manual and automatic inclinometers to get detailed insights into subsurface displacements. In addition, TDR sensors and a weather station will be employed to get a better understanding on the influence of rainfall on sub-surface hydrology. For the rockfall site, a wireless sensor network will be installed to get real-time information on acceleration and inclination of potentially unstable blocks. The movement of the earth flow site will be monitored by differential GPS to get high precision information on displacements of marked points. Photogrammtetry based on octocopter surveys will provide spatial information on movement patterns. A similar approach will be followed for the debris flow catchment. Here, the focus lies on a monitoring of the landslide failures in the source area which prepares the material for subsequent debris flow transport. In addition to the methods already mentioned, repeated terrestrial laserscanning campaigns will be used to monitor geomorphological changes at all sites. All important data, which can be single measurements, episodic or continuous monitoring data for a given point (e.g. rainfall, inclination) or of spatial character (e.g. LiDAR measurements), are collected and analysed on an external server. Automatic data analysis methods, such as progressive failure analysis, are carried out automatically based on field measurements. The data and results from all monitoring sites are visualised on a web-based platform which enables registered users to analyse the respective information in near-real-time. Moreover, thresholds can be determined which trigger automated warning messages to the involved scientists if thresholds are exceeded by field measurements. The described system will enable scientists and decision-makers to access the latest data from the monitoring systems. Automatic alarms are raised when thresholds are exceeded to inform them about potentially hazardous changes. Thereby, a more efficient hazard management and early warning can be achieved. Keywords: landslide, rockfall, debris flow, earth flow, monitoring, early warning system.

Massachusetts Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS). "Technical Descriptions of Risk Model Development": Middle and High School Age Groupings (Grades 7-12)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2013

2013-01-01

The Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (Department) created the grades 1-12 Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS) in response to district interest in the Early Warning Indicator Index (EWII) that the Department previously created for rising grade 9 students. Districts shared that the EWII data were helpful, but also…

The EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory and allied networks, the makings of nascent Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning System in Western North America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattioli, Glen; Mencin, David; Hodgkinson, Kathleen; Meertens, Charles; Phillips, David; Blume, Fredrick; Berglund, Henry; Fox, Otina; Feaux, Karl

2016-04-01

The NSF-funded GAGE Facility, managed by UNAVCO, operates approximately ~1300 GNSS stations distributed across North and Central America and in the circum-Caribbean. Following community input starting in 2011 from several workshops and associated reports,UNAVCO has been exploring ways to increase the capability and utility of the geodetic resources under its management to improve our understanding in diverse areas of geophysics including properties of seismic, volcanic, magmatic and tsunami deformation sources. Networks operated by UNAVCO for the NSF have the potential to profoundly transform our ability to rapidly characterize events, provide rapid characterization and warning, as well as improve hazard mitigation and response. Specific applications currently under development include earthquake early warning, tsunami early warning, and tropospheric modeling with university, commercial, non-profit and government partners on national and international scales. In the case of tsunami early warning, for example, an RT-GNSS network can provide multiple inputs in an operational system starting with rapid assessment of earthquake sources and associated deformation, which leads to the initial model of ocean forcing and tsunami generation. In addition, terrestrial GNSScan provide direct measurements of the tsunami through the associated traveling ionospheric disturbance from several 100's of km away as they approach the shoreline,which can be used to refine tsunami inundation models. Any operational system like this has multiple communities that rely on a pan-Pacific real-time open data set. Other scientific and operational applications for high-rate GPS include glacier and ice sheet motions, tropospheric modeling, and better constraints on the dynamics of space weather. Combining existing data sets and user communities, for example seismic data and tide gauge observations, with GNSS and Met data products has proven complicated because of issues related to metadata, appropriate data formats, data quality assessment in real-time and other issues related to using these products operational forecasting. While progress has been made toward more open and free data access across national borders and toward more cooperation among cognizant government sanctioned "early warning" agencies, some impediments remain making a truly operational system a work in progress. Accordingly, UNAVCO has embarked on significant improvements and improvement goals to the original infrastructure and scope of the PBO. We anticipate that PBO and related networks will form a backbone for these disparate efforts providing high quality, low latency raw and processed GNSS data. This requires substantial upgrades to the entire system from the basic GNNS receiver, through robust data collection, archiving and open distribution mechanisms, to efficient data-processing strategies. UNAVCO is currently in a partnership with the commercial and scientific stakeholders to define, develop and deploy all segments of this improved geodetic network. We present the overarching goals, and current and planned future stateof this international resource.

Earthquake Risk Reduction to Istanbul Natural Gas Distribution Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zulfikar, Can; Kariptas, Cagatay; Biyikoglu, Hikmet; Ozarpa, Cevat

2017-04-01

Earthquake Risk Reduction to Istanbul Natural Gas Distribution Network Istanbul Natural Gas Distribution Corporation (IGDAS) is one of the end users of the Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) signal. IGDAS, the primary natural gas provider in Istanbul, operates an extensive system 9,867km of gas lines with 750 district regulators and 474,000 service boxes. The natural gas comes to Istanbul city borders with 70bar in 30inch diameter steel pipeline. The gas pressure is reduced to 20bar in RMS stations and distributed to district regulators inside the city. 110 of 750 district regulators are instrumented with strong motion accelerometers in order to cut gas flow during an earthquake event in the case of ground motion parameters exceeds the certain threshold levels. Also, state of-the-art protection systems automatically cut natural gas flow when breaks in the gas pipelines are detected. IGDAS uses a sophisticated SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) system to monitor the state-of-health of its pipeline network. This system provides real-time information about quantities related to pipeline monitoring, including input-output pressure, drawing information, positions of station and RTU (remote terminal unit) gates, slum shut mechanism status at 750 district regulator sites. IGDAS Real-time Earthquake Risk Reduction algorithm follows 4 stages as below: 1) Real-time ground motion data transmitted from 110 IGDAS and 110 KOERI (Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute) acceleration stations to the IGDAS Scada Center and KOERI data center. 2) During an earthquake event EEW information is sent from IGDAS Scada Center to the IGDAS stations. 3) Automatic Shut-Off is applied at IGDAS district regulators, and calculated parameters are sent from stations to the IGDAS Scada Center and KOERI. 4) Integrated building and gas pipeline damage maps are prepared immediately after the earthquake event. The today's technology allows to rapidly estimate the expected level of shaking when an earthquake starts to occur. However, in Istanbul case for a potential Marmara Sea Earthquake, the time is very limited even to estimate the level of shaking. The robust threshold based EEW system is only algorithm for such a near source event to activate automatic shut-off mechanism in the critical infrastructures before the damaging waves arrive. This safety measure even with a few seconds of early warning time will help to mitigate potential damages and secondary hazards.

Performance of JMA Earthquake Early Warning for the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoshiba, M.; Wakayama, A.; Ishigaki, Y.; Doi, K.

2011-12-01

This presentation outlines the Earthquake Early Warning of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) for the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0). EEW has been operational nationwide in Japan by JMA since October, 2007. For JMA EEW, the hypocenter is determined by a combination of several techniques, using approximately 1,100 stations from the JMA network and the Hi-net network of NIED; magnitude is mainly from maximum displacement amplitudes. JMA EEWs are updated as available data increases with elapsed time. Accordingly EEWs are issued repeatedly with improving accuracy for a single earthquake. JMA EEWs are divided into two grades depending on the expected intensities. The JMA intensity scale is based on instrumental measurements in which not only the amplitude but also the frequency and duration of the shaking are considered. The 10-degree JMA intensity scale rounds off the instrumental intensity value to the integer. Intensities of 5 and 6 are divided into two degrees, namely 5-lower, 5-upper, 6-lower and 6-upper, respectively. Intensity 1 corresponds to ground motion that people can barely detect, and 7 is the upper limit. JMA EEWs are announced to general public when intensity 5-lower (or greater) is expected. The JMA EEW system was triggered for the Mw 9.0 earthquake when station OURI (138km from the epicenter) detected the initial P wave at 14:46:40.2 (Japan Standard Time). The first EEW, the first of 15 announcements, was issued 5.4 s later. The waveform started with small amplitude, which was comparable to noise level for displacement. The small amplitude does not indicate that the initial rupture of the Mw 9.0 event is large, and does not suggest a large magnitude event. By the fourth EEW, 8.6 s after the first trigger, the expected intensity exceeded the criteria of the warning to the general public. JMA issued the fourth EEW announcements to the general public of the Tohoku district, and then the warning was automatically broadcast through TV, radios and cellular phone mails, which was before the strong ground motion hit cities. The EEW was earlier than the S wave arrival, and more than 15 s earlier than the strong ground motion (intensity 5-lower or greater) everywhere in the district. The EEW system expected intensity of 4 in the Tokyo region in the twelfth to fifteenth (final) issues. But actual observations reached 5-upper, which is greater than the criterion of the warning to the general public. The underestimation can be attributed to the large extent of the later fault rupture. For several weeks after the mainshock, when earthquakes sometimes occurred simultaneously over the wide source region, the system became confused, and did not always determine the location and magnitude correctly. In 49 days from the mainshock to April 28, 2011, 70 EEWs were announced to general public, but actual observed intensities did not exceed 2 at any observation stations in 17 of the 70 events.

ISS Benefits for Humanity: Eye on the Tide

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-04-22

Published on Apr 22, 2015 The vantage point of space not only contributes to a better understanding of our home planet, it helps improve lives around the world. Onboard the International Space Station, the Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Ocean (HICO) instrument gave scientists an exceptional new view of the coastal ocean and the Great Lakes. Using a special camera that separates light into hundreds of wavelength channels, HICO was used to identify potentially harmful algae blooms in Lake Erie and other lakes and reservoirs that provide critical drinking water for millions of users. The EPA is developing an early warning indicator system using historical and current satellite data to detect algal blooms. For more information, visit: http://www.epa.gov The International Space Station is a blueprint for global cooperation and scientific advancements, a destination for a growing commercial marketplace in low-Earth orbit and a test bed for demonstrating new technologies. The space station is the springboard to NASA’s next great leap in exploration, including future missions to an asteroid and Mars.

Evaluating Satellite Rainfall Estimates for Agro-hydrological Applications in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senay, G. B.; Verdin, J. P.; Korecha, D.; Asfaw, A.

2004-12-01

Regional water balance techniques are used to monitor and forecast crop performance and flooding potentials around the world. In the last few years, satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) have become available at continental scales, which made it possible to develop operational regional water balance models for the monitoring of crops performance and flooding potentials in Africa and other regions of the world as part of an environmental early warning system . The accuracy of RFE in absolute terms and importantly as it relates to agricultural and hydrological applications have not been evaluated systematically. This study evaluated a subset of the Africa-wide RFE product by comparing station-rainfall data and RFE from 1996 to 2002 using over 100 rain-gauge stations from Ethiopia at a dekadal (~10-day) time step. The results showed a general under-estimation of RFE compared to station rainfall values. The correlation between station rainfall data and RFE varied highly from place to place and between seasons. On the other hand, the correlation improved significantly when comparison was made between RFE-derived crop water satisfaction index (WRSI) and station-rainfall-derived WRSI, indicating the usefulness of the RFE for agro-hydrological applications.

The Early-Warning System for incoming storm surge and tide in the Republic of Mauritius

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogaard, Tom; de Lima Rego, Joao; Vatvani, Deepak; Virasami, Renganaden; Verlaan, Martin

2016-04-01

The Republic of Mauritius (ROM) is a group of islands in the South West of the Indian Ocean, consisting of the main islands of Mauritius, Rodrigues and Agalega and the archipelago of Saint Brandon. The ROM is particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, especially in the coastal zone, where a convergence of accelerating sea level rise and increasing intensity of tropical cyclones is expected to result in considerable economic loss, humanitarian stresses, and environmental degradation. Storm surges and swell waves are expected to be aggravated through sea level rise and climate change effects on weather patterns. Adaptation to increased vulnerability requires a re-evaluation of existing preparedness measures. The focus of this project is on more effective preparedness and issuing of alerts developing a fully-automated Early-Warning System for incoming storm surge and tide, together with the Mauritius Meteorological Services and the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Centre (NDRRMC), such that coastal communities in Mauritius, Rodrigues and Agalega Islands are able to evacuate timely and safely in case of predicted extreme water levels. The Mauritius Early-Warning System for storm surge and tide was implemented using software from Deltares' Open-Source and free software Community. A set of five depth-averaged Delft3D-FLOW hydrodynamic models are run every six-hours with a forecast horizon of three days, simulating water levels along the coast of the three main islands. Two regional models of horizontal resolution 5km force the three detailed models of 500m resolution; all models are forced at the surface by the 0.25° NOAA/GFS meteorological forecasts. In addition, our Wind-Enhancement Scheme is used to blend detailed cyclone track bulletin's info with the larger-scale Numerical Weather Predictions. Measured data is retrieved near real-time from available Automatic Weather Stations. All these workflows are managed by the operational platform software, Delft-FEWS. The presently operational Mauritius Early-Warning System produces a set of intuitive tables for each island, containing time- and space-varying information on threshold crossings by predicted water levels. At multiple locations for each island of the ROM, the operator is informed in one glance about the recommended preparedness level, from "Safe" to "Watch", "Alert" or "Warning" based on water level forecasts. The HTML page was designed together with the MMS and the NDRRMC, in order to be easy to interpret and disseminate by local authorities.

93. View of transmitter building no. 102 view from second ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

93. View of transmitter building no. 102 view from second floor at grid lines 102-J-L, looking down at capacitor vaults on left and Klystron tube vaults on right showing future square attachment blockouts for waveguide connections at top. RCA Services Company 27 October, 1960, official photograph BMEWS Project by unknown photograph, Photographic Services, Riverton, NJ, BMEWS, clear as negative no. A-1371. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

102. Interior view of utilidor passageway link between building nos. ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

102. Interior view of utilidor passageway link between building nos. 101 and 102 showing waveguides on left and cable tray system on right sides. Note fire suppression water supply piping (upper center). Small maintenance 3-wheel vehicle at center (Note: similar vehicles still in use in 2001.) Official photograph BMEWS Project by Hansen, Photographic Services, Riverton, NJ, BMEWS, clear as negative no. A-101123. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

Evaluating the Real-time and Offline Performance of the Virtual Seismologist Earthquake Early Warning Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cua, G.; Fischer, M.; Heaton, T.; Wiemer, S.

2009-04-01

The Virtual Seismologist (VS) algorithm is a Bayesian approach to regional, network-based earthquake early warning (EEW). Bayes' theorem as applied in the VS algorithm states that the most probable source estimates at any given time is a combination of contributions from relatively static prior information that does not change over the timescale of earthquake rupture and a likelihood function that evolves with time to take into account incoming pick and amplitude observations from the on-going earthquake. Potentially useful types of prior information include network topology or station health status, regional hazard maps, earthquake forecasts, and the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relationship. The VS codes provide magnitude and location estimates once picks are available at 4 stations; these source estimates are subsequently updated each second. The algorithm predicts the geographical distribution of peak ground acceleration and velocity using the estimated magnitude and location and appropriate ground motion prediction equations; the peak ground motion estimates are also updated each second. Implementation of the VS algorithm in California and Switzerland is funded by the Seismic Early Warning for Europe (SAFER) project. The VS method is one of three EEW algorithms whose real-time performance is being evaluated and tested by the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) EEW project. A crucial component of operational EEW algorithms is the ability to distinguish between noise and earthquake-related signals in real-time. We discuss various empirical approaches that allow the VS algorithm to operate in the presence of noise. Real-time operation of the VS codes at the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) began in July 2008. On average, the VS algorithm provides initial magnitude, location, origin time, and ground motion distribution estimates within 17 seconds of the earthquake origin time. These initial estimate times are dominated by the time for 4 acceptable picks to be available, and thus are heavily influenced by the station density in a given region; these initial estimate times also include the effects of telemetry delay, which ranges between 6 and 15 seconds at the SCSN, and processing time (~1 second). Other relevant performance statistics include: 95% of initial real-time location estimates are within 20 km of the actual epicenter, 97% of initial real-time magnitude estimates are within one magnitude unit of the network magnitude. Extension of real-time VS operations to networks in Northern California is an on-going effort. In Switzerland, the VS codes have been run on offline waveform data from over 125 earthquakes recorded by the Swiss Digital Seismic Network (SDSN) and the Swiss Strong Motion Network (SSMS). We discuss the performance of the VS algorithm on these datasets in terms of magnitude, location, and ground motion estimation.

Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns

PubMed Central

Brock, William A.; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Livina, Valerie N.; Seekell, David A.; Scheffer, Marten; van Nes, Egbert H.; Dakos, Vasilis

2014-01-01

A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data. PMID:24658137

Earthquake early warning for Romania - most recent improvements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marmureanu, Alexandru; Elia, Luca; Martino, Claudio; Colombelli, Simona; Zollo, Aldo; Cioflan, Carmen; Toader, Victorin; Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Marius Craiu, George; Ionescu, Constantin

2014-05-01

EWS for Vrancea earthquakes uses the time interval (28-32 sec.) between the moment when the earthquake is detected by the local seismic network installed in the epicenter area (Vrancea) and the arrival time of the seismic waves in the protected area (Bucharest) to send earthquake warning to users. In the last years, National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP) upgraded its seismic network in order to cover better the seismic zones of Romania. Currently the National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP) operates a real-time seismic network designed to monitor the seismic activity on the Romania territory, dominated by the Vrancea intermediate-depth (60-200 km) earthquakes. The NIEP real-time network consists of 102 stations and two seismic arrays equipped with different high quality digitizers (Kinemetrics K2, Quanterra Q330, Quanterra Q330HR, PS6-26, Basalt), broadband and short period seismometers (CMG3ESP, CMG40T, KS2000, KS54000, KS2000, CMG3T,STS2, SH-1, S13, Ranger, gs21, Mark l22) and acceleration sensors (Episensor). Recent improvement of the seismic network and real-time communication technologies allows implementation of a nation-wide EEWS for Vrancea and other seismic sources from Romania. We present a regional approach to Earthquake Early Warning for Romania earthquakes. The regional approach is based on PRESTo (Probabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem) software platform: PRESTo processes in real-time three channel acceleration data streams: once the P-waves arrival have been detected, it provides earthquake location and magnitude estimations, and peak ground motion predictions at target sites. PRESTo is currently implemented in real- time at National Institute for Earth Physics, Bucharest for several months in parallel with a secondary EEWS. The alert notification is issued only when both systems validate each other. Here we present the results obtained using offline earthquakes originating from Vrancea area together with several real-time detection of significant earthquakes from Vrancea and Transylvania areas that occurred in the last months. Currently the warning notification is sent to several users including emergency response units from 12 counties, a big bridge located in Bucharest, a nuclear sterilization facility in Măgurele city and to the nuclear power plant from Cernavoda.

A Tsunami-Focused Tide Station Data Sharing Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kari, U. S.; Marra, J. J.; Weinstein, S. A.

2006-12-01

The Indian Ocean Tsunami of 26 December 2004 made it clear that information about tide stations that could be used to support detection and warning (such as location, collection and transmission capabilities, operator identification) are insufficiently known or not readily accessible. Parties interested in addressing this problem united under the Pacific Region Data Integrated Data Enterprise (PRIDE), and in 2005 began a multiyear effort to develop a distributed metadata system describing tide stations starting with pilot activities in a regional framework and focusing on tsunami detection and warning systems being developed by various agencies. First, a plain semantic description of the tsunami-focused tide station metadata was developed. The semantic metadata description was, in turn, developed into a formal metadata schema championed by International Tsunami Information Centre (ITIC) as part of a larger effort to develop a prototype web service under the PRIDE program in 2005. Under the 2006 PRIDE program the formal metadata schema was then expanded to corral input parameters for the TideTool application used by Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) to drill down into wave activity at a tide station that is located using a web service developed on this metadata schema. This effort contributed to formalization of web service dissemination of PTWC watch and warning tsunami bulletins. During this time, the data content and sharing issues embodied in this schema have been discussed at various forums. The result is that the various stakeholders have different data provider and user perspectives (semantic content) and also exchange formats (not limited to just XML). The challenge then, is not only to capture all data requirements, but also to have formal representation that is easily transformed into any specified format. The latest revision of the tide gauge schema (Version 0.3), begins to address this challenge. It encompasses a broader range of provider and user perspectives, such as station operators, warning system managers, disaster managers, other marine hazard warning systems (such as storm surges and sea level change monitoring and research. In the next revision(s), we hope to take into account various relevant standards, including specifically, the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) Framework, that will serve all prospective stakeholders in the most useful (extensible, scalable) manner. This is because Sensor ML has addressed many of the challenges we face already, through very useful fundamental modeling consideration and data types that are particular to sensors in general, with perhaps some extension needed for tide gauges. As a result of developing this schema, and associated client application architectures, we hope to have a much more distributed network of data providers, who are able to contribute to a global tide station metadata from the comfort of their own Information Technology (IT) departments.

The role of integrating natural and social science concepts for risk governance and the design of people-centred early warning systems. Case study from the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System Project (GITEWS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebert, Niklas; Post, Joachim

2010-05-01

The development of early warning systems are one of the key domains of adaptation to global environmental change and contribute very much to the development of societal reaction and adaptive capacities to deal with extreme events. Especially, Indonesia is highly exposed to tsunami. In average every three years small and medium size tsunamis occur in the region causing damage and death. In the aftermath of the Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004, the German and Indonesian government agreed on a joint cooperation to develop a People Centered End-to-End Early Warning System (GITEWS). The analysis of risk and vulnerability, as an important step in risk (and early warning) governance, is a precondition for the design of effective early warning structures by delivering the knowledge base for developing institutionalized quick response mechanisms of organizations involved in the issuing of a tsunami warning, and of populations exposed to react to warnings and to manage evacuation before the first tsunami wave hits. Thus, a special challenge for developing countries is the governance of complex cross-sectoral and cross-scale institutional, social and spatial processes and requirements for the conceptualization, implementation and optimization of a people centered tsunami early warning system. In support of this, the risk and vulnerability assessment of the case study aims at identifying those factors that constitute the causal structure of the (dis)functionality between the technological warning and the social response system causing loss of life during an emergency situation: Which social groups are likely to be less able to receive and respond to an early warning alert? And, are people able to evacuate in due time? Here, only an interdisciplinary research approach is capable to analyze the socio-spatial and environmental conditions of vulnerability and risk and to produce valuable results for decision makers and civil society to manage tsunami risk in the early warning context. This requires the integration of natural / spatial and social science concepts, methods and data: E.g. a scenario based approach for tsunami inundation modeling was developed to provide decision makers with options to decide up to what level they aim to protect their people and territory, on the contrary household surveys were conducted for the spatial analysis of the evacuation preparedness of the population as a function of place specific hazard, risk, warning and evacuation perception; remote sensing was applied for the spatial analysis (land-use) of the socio-physical conditions of a city and region for evacuation; and existing social / population statistics were combined with land-use data for the precise spatial mapping of the population exposed to tsunami risks. Only by utilizing such a comprehensive assessment approach valuable information for risk governance can be generated. The results are mapped using GIS and designed according to the specific needs of different end-users, such as public authorities involved in the design of warning dissemination strategies, land-use planners (shelter planning, road network configuration) and NGOs mandated to provide education for the general public on tsunami risk and evacuation behavior. The case study of the city of Padang (one of the pilot areas of GITEWS), Indonesia clearly show, that only by intersecting social (vulnerability) and natural hazards research a comprehensive picture on tsunami risk can be provided with which risk governance in the early warning context can be conducted in a comprehensive, systemic and sustainable manner.

Study on the early warning mechanism for the security of blast furnace hearths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Hong-bo; Huo, Shou-feng; Cheng, Shu-sen

2013-04-01

The campaign life of blast furnace (BF) hearths has become the limiting factor for safety and high efficiency production of modern BFs. However, the early warning mechanism of hearth security has not been clear. In this article, based on heat transfer calculations, heat flux and erosion monitoring, the features of heat flux and erosion were analyzed and compared among different types of hearths. The primary detecting elements, mathematical models, evaluating standards, and warning methods were discussed. A novel early warning mechanism with the three-level quantificational standards was proposed for BF hearth security.

An Experimental Seismic Data and Parameter Exchange System for Interim NEAMTWS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanka, W.; Hoffmann, T.; Weber, B.; Heinloo, A.; Hoffmann, M.; Müller-Wrana, T.; Saul, J.

2009-04-01

In 2008 GFZ Potsdam has started to operate its global earthquake monitoring system as an experimental seismic background data centre for the interim NEAMTWS (NE Atlantic and Mediterranean Tsunami Warning System). The SeisComP3 (SC3) software, developed within the GITEWS (German Indian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning System) project was extended to test the export and import of individual processing results within a cluster of SC3 systems. The initiated NEAMTWS SC3 cluster consists presently of the 24/7 seismic services at IMP, IGN, LDG/EMSC and KOERI, whereas INGV and NOA are still pending. The GFZ virtual real-time seismic network (GEOFON Extended Virtual Network - GEVN) was substantially extended by many stations from Western European countries optimizing the station distribution for NEAMTWS purposes. To amend the public seismic network (VEBSN - Virtual European Broadband Seismic Network) some attached centres provided additional private stations for NEAMTWS usage. In parallel to the data collection by Internet the GFZ VSAT hub for the secured data collection of the EuroMED GEOFON and NEAMTWS backbone network stations became operational and the first data links were established. In 2008 the experimental system could already prove its performance since a number of relevant earthquakes have happened in NEAMTWS area. The results are very promising in terms of speed as the automatic alerts (reliable solutions based on a minimum of 25 stations and disseminated by emails and SMS) were issued between 2 1/2 and 4 minutes for Greece and 5 minutes for Iceland. They are also promising in terms of accuracy since epicenter coordinates, depth and magnitude estimates were sufficiently accurate from the very beginning, usually don't differ substantially from the final solutions and provide a good starting point for the operations of the interim NEAMTWS. However, although an automatic seismic system is a good first step, 24/7 manned RTWCs are mandatory for regular manual verification of the automatic seismic results and the estimation of the tsunami potential for a given event.

Research on early-warning index of the spatial temperature field in concrete dams.

PubMed

Yang, Guang; Gu, Chongshi; Bao, Tengfei; Cui, Zhenming; Kan, Kan

2016-01-01

Warning indicators of the dam body's temperature are required for the real-time monitoring of the service conditions of concrete dams to ensure safety and normal operations. Warnings theories are traditionally targeted at a single point which have limitations, and the scientific warning theories on global behavior of the temperature field are non-existent. In this paper, first, in 3D space, the behavior of temperature field has regional dissimilarity. Through the Ward spatial clustering method, the temperature field was divided into regions. Second, the degree of order and degree of disorder of the temperature monitoring points were defined by the probability method. Third, the weight values of monitoring points of each regions were explored via projection pursuit. Forth, a temperature entropy expression that can describe degree of order of the spatial temperature field in concrete dams was established. Fifth, the early-warning index of temperature entropy was set up according to the calculated sequential value of temperature entropy. Finally, project cases verified the feasibility of the proposed theories. The early-warning index of temperature entropy is conducive to the improvement of early-warning ability and safety management levels during the operation of high concrete dams.

Building Better Drought Resilience Through Improved Monitoring and Early Warning: Learning From Stakeholders in Europe, the USA, and Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahl, K.; Hannaford, J.; Bachmair, S.; Tijdeman, E.; Collins, K.; Svoboda, M.; Knutson, C. L.; Wall, N.; Smith, K. H.; Bernadt, T.; Crossman, N. D.; Overton, I. C.; Barker, L. J.; Acreman, M. C.

2016-12-01

With climate projections suggesting that droughts will intensify in many regions in future, improved drought risk management may reduce potential threats to freshwater security across the globe. One aspect that has been called for in this respect is an improvement of the linkage of drought monitoring and early warning, which currently focuses largely on indicators from meteorology and hydrology, to drought impacts on environment and society. However, a survey of existing monitoring and early warning systems globally, that we report on in this contribution, demonstrates that although impacts are being monitored, there is limited work, and certainly little consensus, on how to best achieve this linkage. The Belmont Forum project DrIVER (Drought impacts: Vulnerability thresholds in monitoring and early-warning research) carried out a number of stakeholder workshops in North America, Europe and Australia to elaborate on options for such improvements. A first round of workshops explored current drought management practices among a very diverse range of stakeholders, and their expectations from monitoring and early warning systems (particularly regarding impact characterization). The workshops revealed some disconnects between the indices used in the public early warning systems and those used by local decision-makers, e.g. to trigger drought measures. Follow-up workshops then explored how the links between information at these different scales can be bridged and applied. Impact information plays a key role in this task. This contribution draws on the lessons learned from the transdisciplinary interactions in DrIVER, to enhance the usability of drought monitoring and early-warning systems and other risk management strategies.

Impact of social preparedness on flood early warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girons Lopez, M.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Seibert, J.

2017-01-01

Flood early warning systems play a major role in the disaster risk reduction paradigm as cost-effective methods to mitigate flood disaster damage. The connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social spheres of early warning systems are increasingly being considered as key aspects for successful flood mitigation. The behavior of the public and first responders during flood situations, determined by their preparedness, is heavily influenced by many behavioral traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or even denial. In this study, we use the recency of flood experiences as a proxy for social preparedness to assess its impact on the efficiency of flood early warning systems through a simple stylized model and implemented this model using a simple mathematical description. The main findings, which are based on synthetic data, point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially in circumstances where the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. Furthermore, we found that efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings provide important insights into the role of social preparedness that may help guide decision-making in the field of flood early warning systems.

The Financial Benefit of Early Flood Warnings in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Parker, Dennis J.; Richardson, David; Thielen, Jutta

2015-04-01

Effective disaster risk management relies on science based solutions to close the gap between prevention and preparedness measures. The outcome of consultations on the UNIDSR post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction highlight the need for cross-border early warning systems to strengthen the preparedness phases of disaster risk management in order to save people's lives and property and reduce the overall impact of severe events. In particular, continental and global scale flood forecasting systems provide vital information to various decision makers with which early warnings of floods can be made. Here the potential monetary benefits of early flood warnings using the example of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) are calculated based on pan-European Flood damage data and calculations of potential flood damage reductions. The benefits are of the order of 400 Euro for every 1 Euro invested. Because of the uncertainties which accompany the calculation, a large sensitivity analysis is performed in order to develop an envelope of possible financial benefits. Current EFAS system skill is compared against perfect forecasts to demonstrate the importance of further improving the skill of the forecasts. Improving the response to warnings is also essential in reaping the benefits of flood early warnings.

School disengagement as a predictor of dropout, delinquency, and problem substance use during adolescence and early adulthood.

PubMed

Henry, Kimberly L; Knight, Kelly E; Thornberry, Terence P

2012-02-01

Over the past 5 years, a great deal of attention has been paid to the development of early warning systems for dropout prevention. These warning systems use a set of indicators based on official school records to identify youth at risk for dropout and then appropriately target intervention. The current study builds on this work by assessing the extent to which a school disengagement warning index predicts not only dropout but also other problem behaviors during middle adolescence, late adolescence, and early adulthood. Data from the Rochester Youth Development Study (N = 911, 73% male, 68% African American, and 17% Latino) were used to examine the effects of a school disengagement warning index based on official 8th and 9th grade school records on subsequent dropout, as well as serious delinquency, official offending, and problem substance use during middle adolescence, late adolescence, and early adulthood. Results indicate that the school disengagement warning index is robustly related to dropout as well as serious problem behaviors across the three developmental stages, even after controlling for important potential confounders. High school dropout mediates the effect of the warning index on serious problem behaviors in early adulthood.

School Disengagement as a Predictor of Dropout, Delinquency, and Problem Substance Use during Adolescence and Early Adulthood

PubMed Central

Henry, Kimberly L.; Knight, Kelly E.; Thornberry, Terence P.

2015-01-01

Over the past five years, a great deal of attention has been paid to the development of early warning systems for dropout prevention. These warning systems use a set of indicators based on official school records to identify youth at risk for dropout and then appropriately target intervention. The current study builds on this work by assessing the extent to which a school disengagement warning index predicts not only dropout but also other problem behaviors during middle adolescence, late adolescence, and early adulthood. Data from the Rochester Youth Development Study (n=911, 73% male, 68% African American, and 17% Latino) were used to examine the effects of a school disengagement warning index based on official 8th and 9th grade school records on subsequent dropout, as well as serious delinquency, official offending, and problem substance use during middle adolescence, late adolescence, and early adulthood. Results indicate that the school disengagement warning index is robustly related to dropout as well as serious problem behaviors across the three developmental stages, even after controlling for important potential confounders. High school dropout mediates the effect of the warning index on serious problem behaviors in early adulthood. PMID:21523389

[Tourism ecological security early warning of Zhangjiajie, China based on the improved TOPSIS method and the grey GM (1,1)model].

PubMed

Xu, Mei; Liu, Chun la; Li, Dan; Zhong, Xiao Lin

2017-11-01

Tourism ecological security early warning is of great significance both to the coordination of ecological environment protection and tourism industry rapid development in tourism destination, and the sustainable and healthy development of regional social and economy. Firstly, based on the DPSIR model, the tourism ecological security early warning index system of Zhangjiajie was constructed from 5 aspects, which were driving force, pressure, state, impact and response. Then, by using the improved TOPSIS method, the tourism ecological security situation of Zhangjiajie from 2001 to 2014 was analyzed. Lastly, by using the grey GM (1,1) model, the tourism ecological security evolution trend of 2015-2020 was predicted. The results indicated that, on the whole, the close degree of Zhangjiajie's tourism ecological security showed a slightly upward trend during 2001-2014, the warning degree was the moderate warning. In terms of each subsystem, warning degree of the driving force system and the pressure system of Zhangjiajie's tourism ecological secu-rity were on the rise, which evolved from light warning to heavy warning; warning degree of the state system and the impact system had not changed so much, and had been in the moderate warning; warning degree of the response system was on the decline, which changed from huge warning to no warning during 2001-2014. According to the current development trend, the close degree of Zhangjiajie's tourism ecological security would rise further in 2015-2020, and the warning degree would turn from moderate warning into light warning, but the task of coordinating the relationship between tourism development and ecological construction and environmental protection would be still arduous.

Big data managing in a landslide early warning system: experience from a ground-based interferometric radar application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Intrieri, Emanuele; Bardi, Federica; Fanti, Riccardo; Gigli, Giovanni; Fidolini, Francesco; Casagli, Nicola; Costanzo, Sandra; Raffo, Antonio; Di Massa, Giuseppe; Capparelli, Giovanna; Versace, Pasquale

2017-10-01

A big challenge in terms or landslide risk mitigation is represented by increasing the resiliency of society exposed to the risk. Among the possible strategies with which to reach this goal, there is the implementation of early warning systems. This paper describes a procedure to improve early warning activities in areas affected by high landslide risk, such as those classified as critical infrastructures for their central role in society. This research is part of the project LEWIS (Landslides Early Warning Integrated System): An Integrated System for Landslide Monitoring, Early Warning and Risk Mitigation along Lifelines. LEWIS is composed of a susceptibility assessment methodology providing information for single points and areal monitoring systems, a data transmission network and a data collecting and processing center (DCPC), where readings from all monitoring systems and mathematical models converge and which sets the basis for warning and intervention activities. The aim of this paper is to show how logistic issues linked to advanced monitoring techniques, such as big data transfer and storing, can be dealt with compatibly with an early warning system. Therefore, we focus on the interaction between an areal monitoring tool (a ground-based interferometric radar) and the DCPC. By converting complex data into ASCII strings and through appropriate data cropping and average, and by implementing an algorithm for line-of-sight correction, we managed to reduce the data daily output without compromising the capability for performing.

Sea Level Station Metadata for Tsunami Detection, Warning and Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroker, K. J.; Marra, J.; Kari, U. S.; Weinstein, S. A.; Kong, L.

2007-12-01

The devastating earthquake and tsunami of December 26, 2004 has greatly increased recognition of the need for water level data both from the coasts and the deep-ocean. In 2006, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) completed a Tsunami Data Management Report describing the management of data required to minimize the impact of tsunamis in the United States. One of the major gaps defined in this report is the access to global coastal water level data. NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) are working cooperatively to bridge this gap. NOAA relies on a network of global data, acquired and processed in real-time to support tsunami detection and warning, as well as high-quality global databases of archived data to support research and advanced scientific modeling. In 2005, parties interested in enhancing the access and use of sea level station data united under the NOAA NCDC's Integrated Data and Environmental Applications (IDEA) Center's Pacific Region Integrated Data Enterprise (PRIDE) program to develop a distributed metadata system describing sea level stations (Kari et. al., 2006; Marra et.al., in press). This effort started with pilot activities in a regional framework and is targeted at tsunami detection and warning systems being developed by various agencies. It includes development of the components of a prototype sea level station metadata web service and accompanying Google Earth-based client application, which use an XML-based schema to expose, at a minimum, information in the NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) station database needed to use the PTWC's Tide Tool application. As identified in the Tsunami Data Management Report, the need also exists for long-term retention of the sea level station data. NOAA envisions that the retrospective water level data and metadata will also be available through web services, using an XML-based schema. Five high-priority metadata requirements identified at a water level workshop held at the XXIV IUGG Meeting in Perugia will be addressed: consistent, validated, and well defined numbers (e.g. amplitude); exact location of sea level stations; a complete record of sea level data stored in the archive; identifying high-priority sea level stations; and consistent definitions. NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and co-located World Data Center for Solid Earth Geophysics (including tsunamis) would hold the archive of the sea level station data and distribute the standard metadata. Currently, NGDC is also archiving and distributing the DART buoy deep-ocean water level data and metadata in standards based formats. Kari, Uday S., John J. Marra, Stuart A. Weinstein, 2006 A Tsunami Focused Data Sharing Framework For Integration of Databases that Describe Water Level Station Specifications. AGU Fall Meeting, 2006. San Francisco, California. Marra, John, J., Uday S. Kari, and Stuart A. Weinstein (in press). A Tsunami Detection and Warning-focused Sea Level Station Metadata Web Service. IUGG XXIV, July 2-13, 2007. Perugia, Italy.

Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts: a multiple method evaluation for management application.

PubMed

Lindegren, Martin; Dakos, Vasilis; Gröger, Joachim P; Gårdmark, Anna; Kornilovs, Georgs; Otto, Saskia A; Möllmann, Christian

2012-01-01

Critical transitions between alternative stable states have been shown to occur across an array of complex systems. While our ability to identify abrupt regime shifts in natural ecosystems has improved, detection of potential early-warning signals previous to such shifts is still very limited. Using real monitoring data of a key ecosystem component, we here apply multiple early-warning indicators in order to assess their ability to forewarn a major ecosystem regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea. We show that some indicators and methods can result in clear early-warning signals, while other methods may have limited utility in ecosystem-based management as they show no or weak potential for early-warning. We therefore propose a multiple method approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts in monitoring data that may be useful in informing timely management actions in the face of ecosystem change.

Early Detection of Ecosystem Regime Shifts: A Multiple Method Evaluation for Management Application

PubMed Central

Lindegren, Martin; Dakos, Vasilis; Gröger, Joachim P.; Gårdmark, Anna; Kornilovs, Georgs; Otto, Saskia A.; Möllmann, Christian

2012-01-01

Critical transitions between alternative stable states have been shown to occur across an array of complex systems. While our ability to identify abrupt regime shifts in natural ecosystems has improved, detection of potential early-warning signals previous to such shifts is still very limited. Using real monitoring data of a key ecosystem component, we here apply multiple early-warning indicators in order to assess their ability to forewarn a major ecosystem regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea. We show that some indicators and methods can result in clear early-warning signals, while other methods may have limited utility in ecosystem-based management as they show no or weak potential for early-warning. We therefore propose a multiple method approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts in monitoring data that may be useful in informing timely management actions in the face of ecosystem change. PMID:22808007

LDAR, A Three-Dimensional Lightning Warning System: Its Development and Use by the Government, and Transition to Public Availability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starr, Stan; Sharp, David; Merceret, Francis; Madura, John; Murphy, Martin

1998-01-01

NASA, at the John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC), developed and operates a unique high precision lightning location system to provide lightning related weather warnings. These warnings are used to stop lightning-sensitive operations such as space vehicle launches and ground operations where equipment and personnel are at risk. The data is provided to the Range Weather Operations [45th Weather Squadron, U. S. Air Force (USAF)] where it is used with other meteorological data to issue weather advisories and warnings for Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) and KSC operations. This system, called Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR), provides users with a graphical display in three dimensions of 66 MHz radio frequency events generated by lightning processes. The locations of these events provide a sound basis for the prediction of lightning hazards. NASA and Global Atmospherics, Inc. are developing a new system that will replace the unique LDAR components with commercially available and maintainable components having improved capabilities. These components will be phased in to ensure full continuity and access to this important warning technology. These LDAR systems are expected to eventually be available for installation and use by the public at specialized facilities, such as airports, and for general weather warnings via the National Weather Service (NWS) or television broadcast. The NWS in Melbourne has had access to real-time LDAR data since 1993 on an experimental basis. This use of LDAR has shown promise for the improvement of aviation forecasts and severe weather warnings. More so, it has opened the door to investigate the feasibility of issuing lightning-related public advisories. The success of its early use suggests that this technology may improve safety and potentially save lives, therefore constituting a significant benefit to the public. This paper describes the LDR system, the plans and progress of these upgrades, and the potential benefits of its use.

Lessons unlearned in Japan before 2011: Effects of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami on a nuclear plant in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugimoto, M.

2015-12-01

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami killed around 220,000 people and startled the world. North of Chennai (Madras), the Indian plant nearly affected by tsunami in 2004. The local residents really did not get any warning in India. "On December 26, the Madras Atomic Power Station looked like a desolate place with no power, no phones, no water, no security arrangement and no hindrance whatsoever for outsiders to enter any part of the plant," said S.P. Udaykumar of SACCER. Nuclear issues hide behind such big tsunami damaged. Few media reported outside India. As for US, San Francisco Chronicle reported scientists had to rethink about nuclear power plants by the 2004 tsunami in 11th July 2005. Few tsunami scientsts did not pay attention to nucler power plants nearly affected by tsunami in US. On the other hand, US government noticed the Indian plant nearly affected in 2004. US Goverment supported nucler disaster management in several countries. As for Japan, Japanese goverment mainly concentrated reconstrucation in affected areas and tsunami early warning system. I worked in Japanese embassy in Jakarta Indonesia at that time. I did not receive the information about the Indian plant nearly affected by tsunami and US supported nucler safety to the other coutries. The 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami damaged society and nuclear power stations. The Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident resulted in the largest release of radioactive material since the 1986 Chernobyl accident. Why did not Japanese tsunami scientists learn from warning signs from the nuclear plant in India by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami to the 2011 Fukushima accident? I would like to clarify the reason few tsunami scientist notice this point in my presentation.

How do I know if I’ve improved my continental scale flood early warning system?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cloke, Hannah L.; Pappenberger, Florian; Smith, Paul J.; Wetterhall, Fredrik

2017-04-01

Flood early warning systems mitigate damages and loss of life and are an economically efficient way of enhancing disaster resilience. The use of continental scale flood early warning systems is rapidly growing. The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) is a pan-European flood early warning system forced by a multi-model ensemble of numerical weather predictions. Responses to scientific and technical changes can be complex in these computationally expensive continental scale systems, and improvements need to be tested by evaluating runs of the whole system. It is demonstrated here that forecast skill is not correlated with the value of warnings. In order to tell if the system has been improved an evaluation strategy is required that considers both forecast skill and warning value. The combination of a multi-forcing ensemble of EFAS flood forecasts is evaluated with a new skill-value strategy. The full multi-forcing ensemble is recommended for operational forecasting, but, there are spatial variations in the optimal forecast combination. Results indicate that optimizing forecasts based on value rather than skill alters the optimal forcing combination and the forecast performance. Also indicated is that model diversity and ensemble size are both important in achieving best overall performance. The use of several evaluation measures that consider both skill and value is strongly recommended when considering improvements to early warning systems.

Constructing early warning information release system in towns enterprise clean production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuwen, Huixin; He, Xueqiu; Qian, Xinming; Yuan, Mengqi

2017-08-01

China’s industry boom has not only brought unprecedented prosperity, but also caused the gradual depletion of various resources and the worsening of the natural environment. Experts admit that China is facing serious environmental problem, but they believe that they can seek a new path to overcome it through joint efforts. Early warning information release and clean production are the important concepts in addressing the imminent crisis. Early warning information release system can monitor and forecast the risk that affects the clean production. The author drawn the experiences and lessons from developed countries, combined with China’s reality, put forward countermeasures and suggestions about constructing early warning information release system in process of Chinese town-scaled enterprises clean production.

Early warning signal for interior crises in excitable systems.

PubMed

Karnatak, Rajat; Kantz, Holger; Bialonski, Stephan

2017-10-01

The ability to reliably predict critical transitions in dynamical systems is a long-standing goal of diverse scientific communities. Previous work focused on early warning signals related to local bifurcations (critical slowing down) and nonbifurcation-type transitions. We extend this toolbox and report on a characteristic scaling behavior (critical attractor growth) which is indicative of an impending global bifurcation, an interior crisis in excitable systems. We demonstrate our early warning signal in a conceptual climate model as well as in a model of coupled neurons known to exhibit extreme events. We observed critical attractor growth prior to interior crises of chaotic as well as strange-nonchaotic attractors. These observations promise to extend the classes of transitions that can be predicted via early warning signals.

Landslide susceptibility and early warning model for shallow landslide in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Chun-Ming; Wei, Lun-Wei; Chi, Chun-Chi; Chang, Kan-Tsun; Lee, Chyi-Tyi

2017-04-01

This study aims to development a regional susceptibility model and warning threshold as well as the establishment of early warning system in order to prevent and reduce the losses caused by rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Taiwan. For the purpose of practical application, Taiwan is divided into nearly 185,000 slope units. The susceptibility and warning threshold of each slope unit were analyzed as basic information for disaster prevention. The geological characteristics, mechanism and the occurrence time of landslides were recorded for more than 900 cases through field investigation and interview of residents in order to discuss the relationship between landslides and rainfall. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the landslide susceptibility and an I3-R24 rainfall threshold model was proposed for the early warning of landslides. The validations of recent landslide cases show that the model was suitable for the warning of regional shallow landslide and most of the cases can be warned 3 to 6 hours in advanced. We also propose a slope unit area weighted method to establish local rainfall threshold on landslide for vulnerable villages in order to improve the practical application. Validations of the local rainfall threshold also show a good agreement to the occurrence time reported by newspapers. Finally, a web based "Rainfall-induced Landslide Early Warning System" is built and connected to real-time radar rainfall data so that landslide real-time warning can be achieved. Keywords: landslide, susceptibility analysis, rainfall threshold

76 FR 3064 - Travelers Information Stations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-19

... phone numbers when local 911 systems fail, terror threat alert levels, public health warnings ``and all... Alerts, alternate phone numbers when local 911 systems fail, terror threat alert levels, public health..., alternate phone numbers to 911, terror threat alert levels, and public health warnings--do not appear to be...

Towards a certification process for tsunami early warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löwe, Peter; Wächter, Jochen; Hammitzsch, Martin

2013-04-01

The natural disaster of the Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 was followed by an information catastrophe. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages in a proven workflow. A second challenge stems from the main objective of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC) Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from individual sensors, to Warning Centers within their particular end-to-end Warning System Environments, and up to federated Systems of Tsunami Warning Systems has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CeGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already, being the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS). This activity is continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). TRIDEC focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application: The technical development is based on mature system architecture models and industry standards. The use of standards already applies to the operation of individual TRIDEC reference installations and their interlinking into an integrated service infrastructure for supranational warning services. This is a first step towards best practices and service lifecycles for Early Warning Centre IT service management, including Service Level Agreements (SLA) and Service Certification. While on a global scale the integration of TEWS progresses towards Systems of Systems (SoS), there is still an absence of accredited and reliable certifications for national TEWS or regional Tsunami Early Warning Systems of Systems (TEWSoS). Concepts for TEWS operations have already been published under the guidance of the IOC, and can now be complemented by the recent research advances concerning SoS architecture. Combined with feedback from the real world, such as the NEAMwave 2012 Tsunami exercise in the Mediterranean, this can serve as a starting point to formulate initial requirements for TEWS and TEWSoS certification: Certification activities will cover the establishment of new TEWS and TEWSoS, and also both maintenance and enhancement of existing TEWS/TEWSoS. While the IOC is expected to take a central role in the development of the certification strategy, it remains to be defined which bodies will actually conduct the certification process. Certification requirements and results are likely to become a valuable information source for various target groups, ranging from national policy decision makers, government agency planners, national and local government preparedness officials, TWC staff members, Disaster Responders, the media and the insurance industry.

Forests and Phenology: Designing the Early Warning System to Understand Forest Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierce, T.; Phillips, M. B.; Hargrove, W. W.; Dobson, G.; Hicks, J.; Hutchins, M.; Lichtenstein, K.

2010-12-01

Vegetative phenology is the study of plant development and changes with the seasons, such as the greening-up and browning-down of forests, and how these events are influenced by variations in climate. A National Phenology Data Set, based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite images covering 2002 through 2009, is now available from work by NASA, the US Forest Service, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This new data set provides an easily interpretable product useful for detecting changes to the landscape due to long-term factors such as climate change, as well as finding areas affected by short-term forest threats such as insects or disease. The Early Warning System (EWS) is a toolset being developed by the US Forest Service and the University of North Carolina-Asheville to support distribution and use of the National Phenology Data Set. The Early Warning System will help research scientists, US Forest Service personnel, forest and natural resources managers, decision makers, and the public in the use of phenology data to better understand unexpected change within our nation’s forests. These changes could have multiple natural sources such as insects, disease, or storm damage, or may be due to human-induced events, like thinning, harvest, forest conversion to agriculture, or residential and commercial use. The primary goal of the Early Warning System is to provide a seamless integration between monitoring, detection, early warning and prediction of these forest disturbances as observed through phenological data. The system consists of PC and web-based components that are structured to support four user stages of increasing knowledge and data sophistication. Building Literacy: This stage of the Early Warning System educates potential users about the system, why the system should be used, and the fundamentals about the data the system uses. The channels for this education include a website, interactive tutorials, pamphlets, and other technology transfer methodologies. Achieving Context and Meaning: To provide deeper meaning and knowledge about the Early Warning System to users, this stage of the Early Warning System provides more information about specific examples of disturbances seen in the phenological data, as well the spatial and temporal context to these disturbances. The main components of this stage are specific case studies of forest disturbances. Accessing Data: This component of the Early Warning System includes products for research scientists, the aerial detection survey sketch mapper community, and others who will access and analyze the Early Warning System and phenological data. Products and data will be available through online GIS mashups and WMS and KML downloads. Utilizing Services: The final stage of the Early Warning System supports the analysis of phenological data and serves the results to those end users, including forest managers, the forest industry, and the public, who need to locate past, present, and potential forest disturbances. The main components of this stage include data-driven web tools, automated analysis processes, and end user training programs.

ShakeAlert—An earthquake early warning system for the United States west coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkett, Erin R.; Given, Douglas D.; Jones, Lucile M.

2014-08-29

Earthquake early warning systems use earthquake science and the technology of monitoring systems to alert devices and people when shaking waves generated by an earthquake are expected to arrive at their location. The seconds to minutes of advance warning can allow people and systems to take actions to protect life and property from destructive shaking. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with several partners, has been working to develop an early warning system for the United States. ShakeAlert, a system currently under development, is designed to cover the West Coast States of California, Oregon, and Washington.

CISN ShakeAlert: Accounting for site amplification effects and quantifying time and spatial dependence of uncertainty estimates in the Virtual Seismologist earthquake early warning algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caprio, M.; Cua, G. B.; Wiemer, S.; Fischer, M.; Heaton, T. H.; CISN EEW Team

2011-12-01

The Virtual Seismologist (VS) earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithm is one of 3 EEW approaches being incorporated into the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) ShakeAlert system, a prototype EEW system being tested in real-time in California. The VS algorithm, implemented by the Swiss Seismological Service at ETH Zurich, is a Bayesian approach to EEW, wherein the most probable source estimate at any given time is a combination of contributions from a likehihood function that evolves in response to incoming data from the on-going earthquake, and selected prior information, which can include factors such as network topology, the Gutenberg-Richter relationship or previously observed seismicity. The VS codes have been running in real-time at the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) since July 2008, and at the Northern California Seismic Network (NCSN) since February 2009. With the aim of improving the convergence of real-time VS magnitude estimates to network magnitudes, we evaluate various empirical and Vs30-based approaches to accounting for site amplification. Empirical station corrections for SCSN stations are derived from M>3.0 events from 2005 through 2009. We evaluate the performance of the various approaches using an independent 2010 dataset. In addition, we analyze real-time VS performance from 2008 to the present to quantify the time and spatial dependence of VS uncertainty estimates. We also summarize real-time VS performance for significant 2011 events in California. Improved magnitude and uncertainty estimates potentially increase the utility of EEW information for end-users, particularly those intending to automate damage-mitigating actions based on real-time information.

Evaluation of Real-Time and Off-Line Performance of the Virtual Seismologist Earthquake Early Warning Algorithm in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behr, Yannik; Clinton, John; Cua, Georgia; Cauzzi, Carlo; Heimers, Stefan; Kästli, Philipp; Becker, Jan; Heaton, Thomas

2013-04-01

The Virtual Seismologist (VS) method is a Bayesian approach to regional network-based earthquake early warning (EEW) originally formulated by Cua and Heaton (2007). Implementation of VS into real-time EEW codes has been an on-going effort of the Swiss Seismological Service at ETH Zürich since 2006, with support from ETH Zürich, various European projects, and the United States Geological Survey (USGS). VS is one of three EEW algorithms that form the basis of the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) ShakeAlert system, a USGS-funded prototype end-to-end EEW system that could potentially be implemented in California. In Europe, VS is currently operating as a real-time test system in Switzerland. As part of the on-going EU project REAKT (Strategies and Tools for Real-Time Earthquake Risk Reduction), VS installations in southern Italy, western Greece, Istanbul, Romania, and Iceland are planned or underway. In Switzerland, VS has been running in real-time on stations monitored by the Swiss Seismological Service (including stations from Austria, France, Germany, and Italy) since 2010. While originally based on the Earthworm system it has recently been ported to the SeisComp3 system. Besides taking advantage of SeisComp3's picking and phase association capabilities it greatly simplifies the potential installation of VS at networks in particular those already running SeisComp3. We present the architecture of the new SeisComp3 based version and compare its results from off-line tests with the real-time performance of VS in Switzerland over the past two years. We further show that the empirical relationships used by VS to estimate magnitudes and ground motion, originally derived from southern California data, perform well in Switzerland.

SeismoGeodesy: Combination of High Rate, Real-time GNSS and Accelerometer Observations and Rapid Seismic Event Notification for Earth Quake Early Warning and Volcano Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Michael; Zimakov, Leonid; Moessmer, Matthias

2015-04-01

Scientific GNSS networks are moving towards a model of real-time data acquisition, epoch-by-epoch storage integrity, and on-board real-time position and displacement calculations. This new paradigm allows the integration of real-time, high-rate GNSS displacement information with acceleration and velocity data to create very high-rate displacement records. The mating of these two instruments allows the creation of a new, very high-rate (200 Hz) displacement observable that has the full-scale displacement characteristics of GNSS and high-precision dynamic motions of seismic technologies. It is envisioned that these new observables can be used for earthquake early warning studies, volcano monitoring, and critical infrastructure monitoring applications. Our presentation will focus on the characteristics of GNSS, seismic, and strong motion sensors in high dynamic environments, including historic earthquakes replicated on a shake table over a range of displacements and frequencies. We will explore the optimum integration of these sensors from a filtering perspective including simple harmonic impulses over varying frequencies and amplitudes and under the dynamic conditions of various earthquake scenarios. We will also explore the tradeoffs between various GNSS processing schemes including real-time precise point positioning (PPP) and real-time kinematic (RTK) as applied to seismogeodesy. In addition we will discuss implementation of a Rapid Seismic Event Notification System that provides quick delivery of digital data from seismic stations to the acquisition and processing center and a full data integrity model for real-time earthquake notification that provides warning prior to significant ground shaking.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gunawan, Hendar; Puspito, Nanang T.; Ibrahim, Gunawan

Earthquake pose serious threat of live and properties for urban area near subduction zone offshore and active fault on land. Jakarta and Bandung is an example of big city that no system of Earthquake early warning (EEW) event very high urbanization, and has many important infra structure in the area. The capital city is potentially high risk ground shaking. EEW can be usefull tool for reducing earthquake hazard, if spatial relation between cities and earthquake source is favorable for such warning and their citizens are properly trained to response early warning message. An EEW and rapid response system can providemore » the critical information needed to minimized lost of live and property and direct rescue. Earthquake ground shaking with magnitude M>6.0 from zone of Megathrust, southern of West Java should potentially damage in the area of west java especially Bandung and Jakarta City. This research development of EEW parameter such as amplitude displacement (Pd), rapid magnitude determination (M) and Peak ground Velocity (PGV). We explore the practical approach to EEW with the use of Broadband seismogram signal. Time effective EEW which epicenter from megathrust zone has potential to provide EEW in the area of west java such as Jakarta first ground shaking more or less 60 second later and strong shaking 118 second after EEW Alarm on CISI Station. EEW notification at potentially damage in the area of west java can be predicted from the characteristic of Pd > 0.5 cm, M> 6 and PGV > 10 cm/sec. GIS as a tool for presentation of hazard mapping in the affected area.« less

Using SMAP data to improve drought early warning over the US Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, R.; Fernando, N.; Tang, W.

2015-12-01

A drought prone region such as the Great Plains of the United States (US GP) requires credible and actionable drought early warning. Such information cannot simply be extracted from available climate forecasts because of their large uncertainties at regional scales, and unclear connections to the needs of the decision makers. In particular, current dynamic seasonal predictions and climate projections, such as those produced by the NOAA North American Multi-Model Ensemble experiment (NMME) are much more reliable for winter and spring than for the summer season for the US GP. To mitigate the weaknesses of dynamic prediction/projections, we have identified three key processes behind the spring-to-summer dry memory through observational studies, as the scientific basis for a statistical drought early warning system. This system uses percentile soil moisture anomalies in spring as a key input to provide a probabilistic summer drought early warning. The latter outperforms the dynamic prediction over the US Southern Plains and has been used by the Texas state water agency to support state drought preparedness. A main source of uncertainty for this drought early warning system is the soil moisture input obtained from the NOAA Climate Forecasting System (CFS). We are testing use of the beta version of NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) soil moisture data, along with the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and the long-term Essential Climate Variable Soil Moisture (ECV-SM) soil moisture data, to reduce this uncertainty. Preliminary results based on ECV-SM suggests satellite based soil moisture data could improve early warning of rainfall anomalies over the western US GP with less dense vegetation. The skill degrades over the eastern US GP where denser vegetation is found. We evaluate our SMAP-based drought early warning for 2015 summer against observations.

An early warning system for groundwater pollution based on the assessment of groundwater pollution risks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Weihong.; Zhao, Yongsheng; Hong, Mei; Guo, Xiaodong

2009-04-01

Groundwater pollution usually is complex and concealed, remediation of which is difficult, high cost, time-consuming, and ineffective. An early warning system for groundwater pollution is needed that detects groundwater quality problems and gets the information necessary to make sound decisions before massive groundwater quality degradation occurs. Groundwater pollution early warning were performed by considering comprehensively the current groundwater quality, groundwater quality varying trend and groundwater pollution risk . The map of the basic quality of the groundwater was obtained by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation or BP neural network evaluation. Based on multi-annual groundwater monitoring datasets, Water quality state in sometime of the future was forecasted using time-sequenced analyzing methods. Water quality varying trend was analyzed by Spearman's rank correlative coefficient.The relative risk map of groundwater pollution was estimated through a procedure that identifies, cell by cell,the values of three factors, that is inherent vulnerability, load risk of pollution source and contamination hazard. DRASTIC method was used to assess inherent vulnerability of aquifer. Load risk of pollution source was analyzed based on the potential of contamination and pollution degree. Assessment index of load risk of pollution source which involves the variety of pollution source, quantity of contaminants, releasing potential of pollutants, and distance were determined. The load risks of all sources considered by GIS overlay technology. Early warning model of groundwater pollution combined with ComGIS technology organically, the regional groundwater pollution early-warning information system was developed, and applied it into Qiqiha'er groundwater early warning. It can be used to evaluate current water quality, to forecast water quality changing trend, and to analyze space-time influencing range of groundwater quality by natural process and human activities. Keywords: groundwater pollution, early warning, aquifer vulnerability, pollution load, pollution risk, ComGIS

How one might miss early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data: A systematic study of two major currency pairs

PubMed Central

Ciamarra, Massimo Pica; Cheong, Siew Ann

2018-01-01

There is growing interest in the use of critical slowing down and critical fluctuations as early warning signals for critical transitions in different complex systems. However, while some studies found them effective, others found the opposite. In this paper, we investigated why this might be so, by testing three commonly used indicators: lag-1 autocorrelation, variance, and low-frequency power spectrum at anticipating critical transitions in the very-high-frequency time series data of the Australian Dollar-Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc-Japanese Yen exchange rates. Besides testing rising trends in these indicators at a strict level of confidence using the Kendall-tau test, we also required statistically significant early warning signals to be concurrent in the three indicators, which must rise to appreciable values. We then found for our data set the optimum parameters for discovering critical transitions, and showed that the set of critical transitions found is generally insensitive to variations in the parameters. Suspecting that negative results in the literature are the results of low data frequencies, we created time series with time intervals over three orders of magnitude from the raw data, and tested them for early warning signals. Early warning signals can be reliably found only if the time interval of the data is shorter than the time scale of critical transitions in our complex system of interest. Finally, we compared the set of time windows with statistically significant early warning signals with the set of time windows followed by large movements, to conclude that the early warning signals indeed provide reliable information on impending critical transitions. This reliability becomes more compelling statistically the more events we test. PMID:29538373

How one might miss early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data: A systematic study of two major currency pairs.

PubMed

Wen, Haoyu; Ciamarra, Massimo Pica; Cheong, Siew Ann

2018-01-01

There is growing interest in the use of critical slowing down and critical fluctuations as early warning signals for critical transitions in different complex systems. However, while some studies found them effective, others found the opposite. In this paper, we investigated why this might be so, by testing three commonly used indicators: lag-1 autocorrelation, variance, and low-frequency power spectrum at anticipating critical transitions in the very-high-frequency time series data of the Australian Dollar-Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc-Japanese Yen exchange rates. Besides testing rising trends in these indicators at a strict level of confidence using the Kendall-tau test, we also required statistically significant early warning signals to be concurrent in the three indicators, which must rise to appreciable values. We then found for our data set the optimum parameters for discovering critical transitions, and showed that the set of critical transitions found is generally insensitive to variations in the parameters. Suspecting that negative results in the literature are the results of low data frequencies, we created time series with time intervals over three orders of magnitude from the raw data, and tested them for early warning signals. Early warning signals can be reliably found only if the time interval of the data is shorter than the time scale of critical transitions in our complex system of interest. Finally, we compared the set of time windows with statistically significant early warning signals with the set of time windows followed by large movements, to conclude that the early warning signals indeed provide reliable information on impending critical transitions. This reliability becomes more compelling statistically the more events we test.

[Evaluation and analysis of monitoring and early warning functions of the occupational disease reporting system in China].

PubMed

Zhu, Xiaojun; Li, Tao; Liu, Mengxuan

2015-06-01

To evaluate the monitoring and early warning functions of the occupational disease reporting system right now in China, and to analyze their influencing factors. An improved audit tool (ODIT) was used to score the monitoring and early warning functions with a total score of 10. The nine indices were completeness of information on the reporting form, coverage of the reporting system, accessibility of criteria or guidelines for diagnosis, education and training for physicians, completeness of the reporting system, statistical methods, investigation of special cases, release of monitoring information, and release of early warning information. According to the evaluation, the occupational disease reporting system in China had a score of 5.5 in monitoring existing occupational diseases with a low score for release of monitoring information; the reporting system had a score of 6.5 in early warning of newly occurring occupational diseases with low scores for education and training for physicians as well as completeness of the reporting system. The occupational disease reporting system in China still does not have full function in monitoring and early warning. It is the education and participation of physicians from general hospitals in the diagnosis and treatment of occupational diseases and suspected occupational diseases that need to be enhanced. In addition, the problem of monitoring the incidence of occupational diseases needs to be solved as soon as possible.

A SDMS Model: Early Warning Coordination Centres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos-Reyes, Jaime

2010-05-01

Following the tsunami disaster in 2004, the General Secretary of the United Nations (UN) Kofi Annan called for a global early warning system for all hazards and for all communities. He also requested the ISDR (International Strategy fort Disaster Reduction) and its UN partners to conduct a global survey of capacities, gaps and opportunities in relation to early warning systems. The produced report, "Global survey of Early Warning Systems", concluded that there are many gaps and shortcomings and that much progress has been made on early warning systems and great capabilities are available around the world. However, it may be argued that an early warning system (EWS) may not be enough to prevent fatalities due to a natural hazard; i.e., it should be seen as part of a ‘wider' or total system. Furthermore, an EWS may work very well when assessed individually but it is not clear whether it will contribute to accomplish the purpose of the ‘total disaster management system'; i.e., to prevent fatalities. For instance, a regional EWS may only work if it is well co-ordinated with the local warning and emergency response systems that ensure that the warning is received, communicated and acted upon by the potentially affected communities. It may be argued that without these local measures being in place, a regional EWS will have little impact in saving lives. Researchers argued that unless people are warned in remote areas, the technology is useless; for instance McGuire [5] argues that: "I have no doubt that the technical element of the warning system will work very well,"…"But there has to be an effective and efficient communications cascade from the warning centre to the fisherman on the beach and his family and the bar owners." Similarly, McFadden [6] states that: "There's no point in spending all the money on a fancy monitoring and a fancy analysis system unless we can make sure the infrastructure for the broadcast system is there,"… "That's going to require a lot of work. If it's a tsunami, you've got to get it down to the last Joe on the beach. This is the stuff that is really very hard." Given the above, the paper argues that there is a need for a systemic approach to early warning centres. Systemic means looking upon things as a system; systemic means seeing pattern and inter-relationship within a complex whole; i.e., to see events as products of the working of a system. System may be defined as a whole which is made of parts and relationships. Given this, ‘failure' may be seen as the product of a system and, within that, see death/injury/property loss etc. as results of the working of systems. This paper proposes a preliminary model of ‘early warning coordination centres' (EWCC); it should be highlighted that an EWCC is a subsystem of the Systemic Disaster Management System (SDMS) model.

Famines in Africa: is early warning early enough?

PubMed Central

Kim, Jeeyon Janet; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2012-01-01

Following the second Sahelian famine in 1984–1985, major investments were made to establish Early Warning Systems. These systems help to ensure that timely warnings and vulnerability information are available to decision makers to anticipate and avert food crises. In the recent crisis in the Horn of Africa, alarming levels of acute malnutrition were documented from March 2010, and by August 2010, an impending food crisis was forecast. Despite these measures, the situation remained unrecognised, and further deteriorated causing malnutrition levels to grow in severity and scope. By the time the United Nations officially declared famine on 20 July 2011, and the humanitarian community sluggishly went into response mode, levels of malnutrition and mortality exceeded catastrophic levels. At this time, an estimated 11 million people were in desperate and immediate need for food. With warnings of food crises in the Sahel, South Sudan, and forecast of the drought returning to the Horn, there is an immediate need to institutionalize change in the health response during humanitarian emergencies. Early warning systems are only effective if they trigger an early response. PMID:22745628

Famines in Africa: is early warning early enough?

PubMed

Kim, Jeeyon Janet; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2012-01-01

Following the second Sahelian famine in 1984-1985, major investments were made to establish Early Warning Systems. These systems help to ensure that timely warnings and vulnerability information are available to decision makers to anticipate and avert food crises. In the recent crisis in the Horn of Africa, alarming levels of acute malnutrition were documented from March 2010, and by August 2010, an impending food crisis was forecast. Despite these measures, the situation remained unrecognised, and further deteriorated causing malnutrition levels to grow in severity and scope. By the time the United Nations officially declared famine on 20 July 2011, and the humanitarian community sluggishly went into response mode, levels of malnutrition and mortality exceeded catastrophic levels. At this time, an estimated 11 million people were in desperate and immediate need for food. With warnings of food crises in the Sahel, South Sudan, and forecast of the drought returning to the Horn, there is an immediate need to institutionalize change in the health response during humanitarian emergencies. Early warning systems are only effective if they trigger an early response.

Implementing drought early warning systems: policy lessons and future needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, Ana; Werner, Micha; Maia, Rodrigo; Garrote, Luis; Nyabeze, Washington

2014-05-01

Drought forecasting and Warning provides the potential of reducing impacts to society due to drought events. The implementation of effective drought forecasting and warning, however, requires not only science to support reliable forecasting, but also adequate policy and societal response. Here we propose a protocol to develop drought forecasting and early warning based in the international cooperation of African and European institutions in the DEWFORA project (EC, 7th Framework Programme). The protocol includes four major phases that address the scientific knowledge and the social capacity to use the knowledge: (a) What is the science available? Evaluating how signs of impending drought can be detected and predicted, defining risk levels, and analysing of the signs of drought in an integrated vulnerability approach. (b) What are the societal capacities? In this the institutional framework that enables policy development is evaluated. The protocol gathers information on vulnerability and pending hazard in advance so that early warnings can be declared at sufficient lead time and drought mitigation planning can be implemented at an early stage. (c) How can science be translated into policy? Linking science indicators into the actions/interventions that society needs to implement, and evaluating how policy is implemented. Key limitations to planning for drought are the social capacities to implement early warning systems. Vulnerability assessment contributes to identify these limitations and therefore provides crucial information to policy development. Based on the assessment of vulnerability we suggest thresholds for management actions to respond to drought forecasts and link predictive indicators to relevant potential mitigation strategies. Vulnerability assessment is crucial to identify relief, coping and management responses that contribute to a more resilient society. (d) How can society benefit from the forecast? Evaluating how information is provided to potentially affected groups, and how mitigation strategies can be taken in response. This paper presents an outline of the protocol that was developed in the DEWFORA project, outlining the complementary roles of science, policy and societal uptake in effective drought forecasting and warning. A consensus on the need to emphasise the social component of early warning was reached when testing the DEWFORA early warning system protocol among experts from 18 countries.

Far-field tsunami of 2017 Mw 8.1 Tehuantepec, Mexico earthquake recorded by Chilean tide gauge network: Implications for tsunami warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Carrasco, J. F.; Benavente, R. F.; Zelaya, C.; Núñez, C.; Gonzalez, G.

2017-12-01

The 2017 Mw 8.1, Tehuantepec earthquake generated a moderated tsunami, which was registered in near-field tide gauges network activating a tsunami threat state for Mexico issued by PTWC. In the case of Chile, the forecast of tsunami waves indicate amplitudes less than 0.3 meters above the tide level, advising an informative state of threat, without activation of evacuation procedures. Nevertheless, during sea level monitoring of network we detect wave amplitudes (> 0.3 m) indicating a possible change of threat state. Finally, NTWS maintains informative level of threat based on mathematical filtering analysis of sea level records. After 2010 Mw 8.8, Maule earthquake, the Chilean National Tsunami Warning System (NTWS) has increased its observational capabilities to improve early response. Most important operational efforts have focused on strengthening tide gauge network for national area of responsibility. Furthermore, technological initiatives as Integrated Tsunami Prediction and Warning System (SIPAT) has segmented the area of responsibility in blocks to focus early warning and evacuation procedures on most affected coastal areas, while maintaining an informative state for distant areas of near-field earthquake. In the case of far-field events, NTWS follow the recommendations proposed by Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC), including a comprehensive monitoring of sea level records, such as tide gauges and DART (Deep-Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami) buoys, to evaluate the state of tsunami threat in the area of responsibility. The main objective of this work is to analyze the first-order physical processes involved in the far-field propagation and coastal impact of tsunami, including implications for decision-making of NTWS. To explore our main question, we construct a finite-fault model of the 2017, Mw 8.1 Tehuantepec earthquake. We employ the rupture model to simulate a transoceanic tsunami modeled by Neowave2D. We generate synthetic time series at tide gauge stations and compare them with recorded sea level data, to dismiss meteorological processes, such as storms and surges. Resonance analysis is performed by wavelet technique.

An early warning and control system for urban, drinking water quality protection: China's experience.

PubMed

Hou, Dibo; Song, Xiaoxuan; Zhang, Guangxin; Zhang, Hongjian; Loaiciga, Hugo

2013-07-01

An event-driven, urban, drinking water quality early warning and control system (DEWS) is proposed to cope with China's urgent need for protecting its urban drinking water. The DEWS has a web service structure and provides users with water quality monitoring functions, water quality early warning functions, and water quality accident decision-making functions. The DEWS functionality is guided by the principles of control theory and risk assessment as applied to the feedback control of urban water supply systems. The DEWS has been deployed in several large Chinese cities and found to perform well insofar as water quality early warning and emergency decision-making is concerned. This paper describes a DEWS for urban water quality protection that has been developed in China.

Climate change implications and use of early warning systems for global dust storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harriman, Lindsey M.

2014-01-01

With increased changes in land cover and global climate, early detection and warning of dust storms in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts. Human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns influence dust storms. More research is needed to analyse these factors of dust mobilisation to create more certainty for the fate of vulnerable populations and ecosystems in the future. Early warning and communication systems, when in place and effectively implemented, can offer some relief to these vulnerable areas. As an issue that affects many regions of the world, there is a profound need to understand the potential changes and ultimately create better early warning systems for dust storms.

Studying the response of drivers against different collision warning systems: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muzammel, M.; Yusoff, M. Zuki; Malik, A. Saeed; Mohamad Saad, M. Naufal; Meriaudeau, F.

2017-03-01

The number of vehicle accidents is rapidly increasing and causing significant economic losses in many countries. According to the World Health Organization, road accidents will become the fifth major cause of death by the year 2030. To minimize these accidents different types of collision warning systems have been proposed for motor vehicle drivers. These systems can early detect and warn the drivers about the potential danger, up to a certain accuracy. Many researchers study the effectiveness of these systems by using different methods, including Electroencephalography (EEG). From the literature review, it has been observed that, these systems increase the drivers' response and can help to minimize the accidents that may occur due to drivers unconsciousness. For these collision warning systems, tactile early warnings are found more effective as compared to the auditory and visual early warnings. This review also highlights the areas, where further research can be performed to fully analyze the collision warning system. For example, some contradictions are found among researchers, about these systems' performance for drivers within different age groups. Similarly, most of the EEG studies focus on the front collision warning systems and only give beep sound to alert the drivers. Therefore, EEG study can be performed for the rear end collision warning systems, against proper auditory warning messages which indicate the types of hazards. This EEG study will help to design more friendly collision warning system and may save many lives.

A space-based concept for a collision warning sensor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Talent, David L.; Vilas, Faith

1990-01-01

This paper describes a concept for a space-based collision warning sensor experiment, the Debris Collision Warning Sensor (DCWS) experiment, in which the sensor will rely on passive sensing of debris in optical and IR passband. The DCWS experiment will be carried out under various conditions of solar phase angle and pass geometry; debris from 1.5 m to 1 mm diam will be observable. The mission characteristics include inclination in the 55-60 deg range and an altitude of about 500 km. The results of the DCWS experiment will be used to generate collision warning scenarios for the Space Station Freedom.

Avoiding Service Station Fraud.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burton, Grace M.; Burton, John R.

1982-01-01

High school students are warned against service station fraud. A problem-solving section is designed to help students calculate consumer costs for various fraudulent transactions. Several ways of reducing fraud or of lessening the chances of problems are noted. (MP)

Preparing for floods: flood forecasting and early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cloke, Hannah

2016-04-01

Flood forecasting and early warning has continued to stride ahead in strengthening the preparedness phases of disaster risk management, saving lives and property and reducing the overall impact of severe flood events. For example, continental and global scale flood forecasting systems such as the European Flood Awareness System and the Global Flood Awareness System provide early information about upcoming floods in real time to various decisionmakers. Studies have found that there are monetary benefits to implementing these early flood warning systems, and with the science also in place to provide evidence of benefit and hydrometeorological institutional outlooks warming to the use of probabilistic forecasts, the uptake over the last decade has been rapid and sustained. However, there are many further challenges that lie ahead to improve the science supporting flood early warning and to ensure that appropriate decisions are made to maximise flood preparedness.

Design of flood early warning system with wifi network based on smartphone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Supani, Ahyar; Andriani, Yuli; Taqwa, Ahmad

2017-11-01

Today, the development using internet of things enables activities surrounding us to be monitored, controlled, predicted and calculated remotely through connections to the internet network such as monitoring activities of long-distance flood warning with information technology. Applying an information technology in the field of flood early warning has been developed in the world, either connected to internet network or not. The internet network that has been done in this paper is the design of WiFi network to access data of rainfall, water level and flood status at any time with a smartphone coming from flood early warning system. The results obtained when test of data accessing with smartphone are in form of rainfall and water level graphs against time and flood status indicators consisting of 3 flood states: Standby 2, Standby 1 and Flood. It is concluded that data are from flood early warning system has been able to accessed and displayed on smartphone via WiFi network in any time and real time.

Sensors Provide Early Warning of Biological Threats

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2009-01-01

Early Warning Inc. of Troy, New York, licensed powerful biosensor technology from Ames Research Center. Incorporating carbon nanotubes tipped with single strands of nucleic acid from waterborne pathogens, the sensor can detect even minute amounts of targeted, disease causing bacteria, viruses, and parasites. Early Warning features the NASA biosensor in its water analyzer, which can provide advance alert of potential biological hazards in water used for agriculture, food and beverages, showers, and at beaches and lakes -- within hours instead of the days required by conventional laboratory methods.

THE TSUNAMI SERVICE BUS, AN INTEGRATION PLATFORM FOR HETEROGENEOUS SENSOR SYSTEMS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleischer, J.; Häner, R.; Herrnkind, S.; Kriegel, U.; Schwarting, H.; Wächter, J.

2009-12-01

The Tsunami Service Bus (TSB) is the sensor integration platform of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) [1]. The primary goal of GITEWS is to deliver reliable tsunami warnings as fast as possible. This is achieved on basis of various sensor systems like seismometers, ocean instrumentation, and GPS stations, all providing fundamental data to support prediction of tsunami wave propagation by the GITEWS warning center. However, all these sensors come with their own proprietary data formats and specific behavior. Also new sensor types might be added, old sensors will be replaced. To keep GITEWS flexible the TSB was developed in order to access and control sensors in a uniform way. To meet these requirements the TSB follows the architectural blueprint of a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA). The integration platform implements dedicated services communicating via a service infrastructure. The functionality required for early warnings is provided by loosely coupled services replacing the "hard-wired" coupling at data level. Changes in the sensor specification are confined to the data level without affecting the warning center. Great emphasis was laid on following the Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) standard [2], specified by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) [3]. As a result the full functionality needed in GITEWS could be achieved by implementing the four SWE services: The Sensor Observation Service for retrieving sensor measurements, the Sensor Alert Service in order to deliver sensor alerts, the Sensor Planning Service for tasking sensors, and the Web Notification Service for conduction messages to various media channels. Beyond these services the TSB also follows SWE Observation & Measurements specifications (O&M) for data encoding and Sensor Model Language (SensorML) for meta information. Moreover, accessing sensors via the TSB is not restricted to GITEWS. Multiple instances of the TSB can be composed to realize federate warning system. Beside the already operating TSB at the BMKG warning center [4], two other organizations in Indonesia ([5], [6]) consider using the TSB, making their data centers available to GITEWS. The presentation takes a look at the concepts and implementation and reflects the usefulness of the mentioned standards. REFERENCES [1] GITEWS is a project of the German Federal Government to aid the recon¬struction of the tsunami-prone region of the Indian Ocean, http://www.gitews.org/ [2] SWE, www.opengeospatial.org/projects/groups/sensorweb [3] OGC, www.opengeospatial.org [4] Meteorological and Geophysical Agency of Indonesia (BMKG), www.bmg.go.id [5] National Coordinating Agency for Surveys and Mapping (BAKOSURTANAL), www.bakosurtanal.go.id [6] Agency for the Assessment & Application of Technology (BPPT), www.bppt.go.id

The Mexican Sistema de Alerta Sismica (SAS) Experience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espinosa-Aranda, J.; Rodriguez, F.

2003-12-01

The Mexico City's SAS is an Early Warning System developed in accordance with recommendations of foreign and national seismology experts, after the disaster generated in 1985 by the M8.1 Michoacan earthquake. The SAS aim is to help mitigate future seismic disasters in Mexico City (MC), mainly if the big forecast "Guerrero Earthquake" hits. In 1991 the SAS started its service in an experimental basis for evaluating its performance both with a group of basic education students in public schools, and with the emergency stop function for the Mexico City Metropolitan Subway System (METRO of MC); after this The Federal District Government (FDG) opened the SAS as a public service in August, 1993, shortly after the SAS warned, with more than 60 seconds of anticipation, the incoming effect of May 13, 1993, M5.8, and M6 double earthquake originated more than 300 Km from MC between Guerrero and Oaxaca, on the coast. That year, an initial technical flaw generated one false alert signal; the cause was readily corrected. The SAS has 12 seismic sensor stations covering a stripe close to 400 X 100 Km on the Guerrero's coast, between Papanoa and Punta Maldonado, that send information through a dedicated radio relay system to the SAS Central Control in MC., using the valuable support of some TELMEX field installations. Until August, 2003, the SAS sensor system has detected more than 1550 earthquakes in the 2.55 magnitude events, which are the ones felt in MC. The SAS has generated 57 warning signals with an average of 60 sec in advance to earthquake effects: 46 of restricted use for M<6, and 11 of public use for M>6 events. Public warnings have the automatic broadcast support of many commercial radio AM/FM and TV stations in Mexico City and Toluca valleys. The FDG controls the SAS signal service that includes the more frequent events (from M>5 up), asking the user to develop procedures and practice useful actions to mitigate seismic disasters. Each validated SAS seismic warning automatically generates and sends the event information by fax and e-mail to the DFG and Civil Protection Authorities, users and news media; it also sends information about the SAS operating conditions to service technicians, via radio, and phone.

Range estimation techniques in single-station thunderstorm warning sensors based upon gated, wideband, magnetic direction finder technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pifer, Alburt E.; Hiscox, William L.; Cummins, Kenneth L.; Neumann, William T.

1991-01-01

Gated, wideband, magnetic direction finders (DFs) were originally designed to measure the bearing of cloud-to-ground lightning relative to the sensor. A recent addition to this device uses proprietary waveform discrimination logic to select return stroke signatures and certain range dependent features in the waveform to provide an estimate of range of flashes within 50 kms. The enhanced ranging techniques are discussed which were designed and developed for use in single station thunderstorm warning sensor. Included are the results of on-going evaluations being conducted under a variety of meteorological and geographic conditions.

Early Warnings for Local Labor Markets

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matland, Marc A.

1976-01-01

This articles summarizes the National Planning Association's (NPA) experience in its initial efforts to develop an early warning system to anticipate job openings generated in local communities by large Federal procurement contracts. (WL)

PPP Sliding Window Algorithm and Its Application in Deformation Monitoring.

PubMed

Song, Weiwei; Zhang, Rui; Yao, Yibin; Liu, Yanyan; Hu, Yuming

2016-05-31

Compared with the double-difference relative positioning method, the precise point positioning (PPP) algorithm can avoid the selection of a static reference station and directly measure the three-dimensional position changes at the observation site and exhibit superiority in a variety of deformation monitoring applications. However, because of the influence of various observing errors, the accuracy of PPP is generally at the cm-dm level, which cannot meet the requirements needed for high precision deformation monitoring. For most of the monitoring applications, the observation stations maintain stationary, which can be provided as a priori constraint information. In this paper, a new PPP algorithm based on a sliding window was proposed to improve the positioning accuracy. Firstly, data from IGS tracking station was processed using both traditional and new PPP algorithm; the results showed that the new algorithm can effectively improve positioning accuracy, especially for the elevation direction. Then, an earthquake simulation platform was used to simulate an earthquake event; the results illustrated that the new algorithm can effectively detect the vibrations change of a reference station during an earthquake. At last, the observed Wenchuan earthquake experimental results showed that the new algorithm was feasible to monitor the real earthquakes and provide early-warning alerts.

A Climate Trend Analysis of Burkina Faso

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Eilerts, Gary; Adoum, Alkhalil; White, Libby

2012-01-01

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), examines recent trends in rainfall and air temperatures. These analyses are based on quality controlled station observations. Conclusions: * Summer rains have remained steady over the past 20 years, but remain 15 percent below the 1920-69 average. * Temperatures have increased by 0.6° Celsius since 1975, amplifying the effect of droughts. * The amount of farmland per person is low, and declining. * Burkina Faso has offset rapid population growth with improved yields. * Continued yield growth would maintain current levels of per capita food production.

A climate trend analysis of Mali

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Adoum, Alkhalil; Eilerts, Gary; White, Libby

2012-01-01

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), identifies modest declines in rainfall, accompanied by increases in air temperatures. These analyses are based on quality-controlled station observations. Conclusions: * Summer rains have remained relatively steady for the past 20 years, but are 12 percent below the 1920-1969 average. * Temperatures have increased by 0.8° Celsius since 1975, amplifying the effect of droughts. * Cereal yields are low but have been improving. * Current population and agricultural trends indicate that increased yields have offset population expansion, keeping per capita cereal production steady.

14 CFR 25.857 - Cargo compartment classification.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... detector or fire detector system to give warning at the pilot or flight engineer station. (c) Class C. A... compartment but in which— (1) There is a separate approved smoke detector or fire detector system to give... a separate approved smoke or fire detector system to give warning at the pilot or flight engineer...

14 CFR 25.857 - Cargo compartment classification.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... detector or fire detector system to give warning at the pilot or flight engineer station. (c) Class C. A... compartment but in which— (1) There is a separate approved smoke detector or fire detector system to give... a separate approved smoke or fire detector system to give warning at the pilot or flight engineer...

14 CFR 25.857 - Cargo compartment classification.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... detector or fire detector system to give warning at the pilot or flight engineer station. (c) Class C. A... compartment but in which— (1) There is a separate approved smoke detector or fire detector system to give... a separate approved smoke or fire detector system to give warning at the pilot or flight engineer...

14 CFR 25.857 - Cargo compartment classification.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... detector or fire detector system to give warning at the pilot or flight engineer station. (c) Class C. A... compartment but in which— (1) There is a separate approved smoke detector or fire detector system to give... a separate approved smoke or fire detector system to give warning at the pilot or flight engineer...

14 CFR 25.857 - Cargo compartment classification.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... detector or fire detector system to give warning at the pilot or flight engineer station. (c) Class C. A... compartment but in which— (1) There is a separate approved smoke detector or fire detector system to give... a separate approved smoke or fire detector system to give warning at the pilot or flight engineer...

The status and prospective of environmental radiation monitoring stations in Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Kheliewi, Abdullah S.; Holzheimer, Clous

2014-09-01

The use of nuclear technology requires an environmental monitoring program to ensure the safety of the environment, and to protect people from the hazards of radioactive materials, and nuclear accidents. Nuclear accidents are unique, for they incur effects that surpass international frontiers, and can even have a long lasting impact on Earth. Such was the case of the Chernobyl accident in the Ukraine on April 6, 1986. For that purpose, international and national efforts come together to observe for any nuclear or radioactive accident. Many states, including Saudi Arabia which oversees the operation of the National Radiation, Environmental and Early Monitoring Stations, The Radiation Monitoring Stations(RMS's) are currently scattered across 35 cities in the country,. These locations are evaluated based on various technological criteria such as border cities, cities of high population density, wind direction, etc. For new nuclear power plants hovering around, it is strongly recommended to increase the number of radiation monitoring stations to warn against any threat that may arise from a nuclear leak or accident and to improve the performance of the existing RMS's. SARA (Spectroscopic Monitoring Station for air) should be implemented due to the high sensitivity to artificial radiation, automatic isotope identification, free of maintenance, and fully independent due to solar power supply (incl. battery backup) and wireless communication (GPRS).

An automatic tsunami warning system: TREMORS application in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reymond, D.; Robert, S.; Thomas, Y.; Schindelé, F.

1996-03-01

An integrated system named TREMORS (Tsunami Risk Evaluation through seismic Moment of a Real-time System) has been installed in EVORA station, in Portugal which has been affected by historical tsunamis. The system is based on a three component long period seismic station linked to a compatible IBM_PC with a specific software. The goals of this system are the followings: detect earthquake, locate them, compute their seismic moment, give a seismic warning. The warnings are based on the seismic moment estimation and all the processing are made automatically. The finality of this study is to check the quality of estimation of the main parameters of interest in a goal of tsunami warning: the location which depends of azimuth and distance, and at last the seismic moment, M 0, which controls the earthquake size. The sine qua non condition for obtaining an automatic location is that the 3 main seismic phases P, S, R must be visible. This study gives satisfying results (automatic analysis): ± 5° errors in azimuth and epicentral distance, and a standard deviation of less than a factor 2 for the seismic moment M 0.

Continuous estimates on the earthquake early warning magnitude by use of the near-field acceleration records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jun; Jin, Xing; Wei, Yongxiang; Zhang, Hongcai

2013-10-01

In this article, the seismic records of Japan's Kik-net are selected to measure the acceleration, displacement, and effective peak acceleration of each seismic record within a certain time after P wave, then a continuous estimation is given on earthquake early warning magnitude through statistical analysis method, and Wenchuan earthquake record is utilized to check the method. The results show that the reliability of earthquake early warning magnitude continuously increases with the increase of the seismic information, the biggest residual happens if the acceleration is adopted to fit earthquake magnitude, which may be caused by rich high-frequency components and large dispersion of peak value in acceleration record, the influence caused by the high-frequency components can be effectively reduced if the effective peak acceleration and peak displacement is adopted, it is estimated that the dispersion of earthquake magnitude obviously reduces, but it is easy for peak displacement to be affected by long-period drifting. In various components, the residual enlargement phenomenon at vertical direction is almost unobvious, thus it is recommended in this article that the effective peak acceleration at vertical direction is preferred to estimate earthquake early warning magnitude. Through adopting Wenchuan strong earthquake record to check the method mentioned in this article, it is found that this method can be used to quickly, stably, and accurately estimate the early warning magnitude of this earthquake, which shows that this method is completely applicable for earthquake early warning.

Establishing an early warning alert and response network following the Solomon Islands tsunami in 2013.

PubMed

Bilve, Augustine; Nogareda, Francisco; Joshua, Cynthia; Ross, Lester; Betcha, Christopher; Durski, Kara; Fleischl, Juliet; Nilles, Eric

2014-11-01

On 6 February 2013, an 8.0 magnitude earthquake generated a tsunami that struck the Santa Cruz Islands, Solomon Islands, killing 10 people and displacing over 4700. A post-disaster assessment of the risk of epidemic disease transmission recommended the implementation of an early warning alert and response network (EWARN) to rapidly detect, assess and respond to potential outbreaks in the aftermath of the tsunami. Almost 40% of the Santa Cruz Islands' population were displaced by the disaster, and living in cramped temporary camps with poor or absent sanitation facilities and insufficient access to clean water. There was no early warning disease surveillance system. By 25 February, an EWARN was operational in five health facilities that served 90% of the displaced population. Eight priority diseases or syndromes were reported weekly; unexpected health events were reported immediately. Between 25 February and 19 May, 1177 target diseases or syndrome cases were reported. Seven alerts were investigated. No sustained transmission or epidemics were identified. Reporting compliance was 85%. The EWARN was then transitioned to the routine four-syndrome early warning disease surveillance system. It was necessary to conduct a detailed assessment to evaluate the risk and potential impact of serious infectious disease outbreaks, to assess whether and how enhanced early warning disease surveillance should be implemented. Local capacities and available resources should be considered in planning EWARN implementation. An EWARN can be an opportunity to establish or strengthen early warning disease surveillance capabilities.

Collision warning and avoidance considerations for the Space Shuttle and Space Station Freedom

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vilas, Faith; Collins, Michael F.; Kramer, Paul C.; Arndt, G. Dickey; Suddath, Jerry H.

1990-01-01

The increasing hazard of manmade debris in low earth orbit (LEO) has focused attention on the requirement for collision detection, warning and avoidance systems to be developed in order to protect manned (and unmanned) spacecraft. With the number of debris objects expected to be increasing with time, the impact hazard will also be increasing. The safety of the Space Shuttle and the Space Station Freedom from destructive or catastrophic collision resulting from the hypervelocity impact of a LEO object is of increasing concern to NASA. A number of approaches to this problem are in effect or under development. The collision avoidance procedures now in effect for the Shuttle are described, and detection and avoidance procedures presently being developed at the Johnson Space Center for the Space Station Freedom are discussed.

Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability - Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pozzi, Will; Sheffield, Justin; Stefanski, Robert; Cripe, Douglas; Pulwarty, Roger; Vogt, Jurgen V.; Heim, Richard R., Jr.; Brewer, Michael J.; Svoboda, Mark; Westerhoff, Rogier;

Feasibility of Using Elastic Wave Velocity Monitoring for Early Warning of Rainfall-Induced Slope Failure.

PubMed

Chen, Yulong; Irfan, Muhammad; Uchimura, Taro; Zhang, Ke

2018-03-27

Rainfall-induced landslides are one of the most widespread slope instability phenomena posing a serious risk to public safety worldwide so that their temporal prediction is of great interest to establish effective warning systems. The objective of this study is to determine the effectiveness of elastic wave velocities in the surface layer of the slope in monitoring, prediction and early warning of landslide. The small-scale fixed and varied, and large-scale slope model tests were conducted. Analysis of the results has established that the elastic wave velocity continuously decreases in response of moisture content and deformation and there was a distinct surge in the decrease rate of wave velocity when failure was initiated. Based on the preliminary results of this analysis, the method using the change in elastic wave velocity proves superior for landslide early warning and suggests that a warning be issued at switch of wave velocity decrease rate.

A Cardiac Early Warning System with Multi Channel SCG and ECG Monitoring for Mobile Health

PubMed Central

Sahoo, Prasan Kumar; Thakkar, Hiren Kumar; Lee, Ming-Yih

2017-01-01

Use of information and communication technology such as smart phone, smart watch, smart glass and portable health monitoring devices for healthcare services has made Mobile Health (mHealth) an emerging research area. Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is considered as a leading cause of death world wide and an increasing number of people die prematurely due to CHD. Under such circumstances, there is a growing demand for a reliable cardiac monitoring system to catch the intermittent abnormalities and detect critical cardiac behaviors which lead to sudden death. Use of mobile devices to collect Electrocardiography (ECG), Seismocardiography (SCG) data and efficient analysis of those data can monitor a patient’s cardiac activities for early warning. This paper presents a novel cardiac data acquisition method and combined analysis of Electrocardiography (ECG) and multi channel Seismocardiography (SCG) data. An early warning system is implemented to monitor the cardiac activities of a person and accuracy assessment of the early warning system is conducted for the ECG data only. The assessment shows 88% accuracy and effectiveness of our proposed analysis, which implies the viability and applicability of the proposed early warning system. PMID:28353681

A Cardiac Early Warning System with Multi Channel SCG and ECG Monitoring for Mobile Health.

PubMed

Sahoo, Prasan Kumar; Thakkar, Hiren Kumar; Lee, Ming-Yih

2017-03-29

Use of information and communication technology such as smart phone, smart watch, smart glass and portable health monitoring devices for healthcare services has made Mobile Health (mHealth) an emerging research area. Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is considered as a leading cause of death world wide and an increasing number of people die prematurely due to CHD. Under such circumstances, there is a growing demand for a reliable cardiac monitoring system to catch the intermittent abnormalities and detect critical cardiac behaviors which lead to sudden death. Use of mobile devices to collect Electrocardiography (ECG), Seismocardiography (SCG) data and efficient analysis of those data can monitor a patient's cardiac activities for early warning. This paper presents a novel cardiac data acquisition method and combined analysis of Electrocardiography (ECG) and multi channel Seismocardiography (SCG) data. An early warning system is implemented to monitor the cardiac activities of a person and accuracy assessment of the early warning system is conducted for the ECG data only. The assessment shows 88% accuracy and effectiveness of our proposed analysis, which implies the viability and applicability of the proposed early warning system.

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report First Quarter FY-14

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William Henry; Crawford, Winifred C.; Shafer, Jaclyn A.; Watson, Leela R.; Huddleston, Lisa L.; Decker, Ryan K.

2014-01-01

NASA's LSP and other programs at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) use wind forecasts issued by the 30th Operational Support Squadron (30 OSS) to determine if they need to limit activities or protect property such as a launch vehicle due to the occurrence of warning level winds at VAFB in California. The 30 OSS tasked the AMU to provide a wind forecasting capability to improve wind warning forecasts and enhance the safety of their customers' operations. This would allow 30 OSS forecasters to evaluate pressure gradient thresholds between pairs of regional observing stations to help determine the onset and duration of warning category winds. Development of such a tool will require that solid relationships exist between wind speed and the pressure gradient of one or more station pairs. As part of this task, the AMU will also create a statistical climatology of meteorological observations from the VAFB wind towers.

Global Tsunami Warning System Development Since 2004

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weinstein, S.; Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Fryer, G. J.; McCreery, C.; Hirshorn, B. F.

2014-12-01

The 9.1 Mw Great Sumatra Earthquake of Dec. 26, 2004, generated the most destructive tsunami in history killing 227,000 people along Indian Ocean coastlines and was recorded by sea-level instruments world-wide. This tragedy showed the Indian Ocean needed a tsunami warning system to prevent another tragedy on this scale. The Great Sumatra Earthquake also highlighted the need for tsunami warning systems in other ocean basins. Instruments for recording earthquakes and sea-level data useful for tsunami monitoring did not exist outside of the Pacific Ocean in 2004. Seismometers were few in number, and even fewer were high-quality long period broadband instruments. Nor was much of their data made available to the US tsunami warning centers (TWCs). In 2004 the US TWCs relied exclusively on instrumentation provided and maintained by IRIS and the USGS for areas outside of the Pacific.Since 2004, the US TWCs and their partners have made substantial improvements to seismic and sea-level monitoring networks with the addition of new and better instruments, densification of existing networks, better communications infrastructure, and improved data sharing among tsunami warning centers. In particular, the number of sea-level stations transmitting data in near real-time and the amount of seismic data available to the tsunami warning centers has more than tripled. The DART network that consisted of a half-dozen Pacific stations in 2004 now totals nearly 60 stations worldwide. Earthquake and tsunami science has progressed as well. It took nearly three weeks to obtain the first reliable estimates of the 2004 Sumatra Earthquake's magnitude. Today, thanks to improved seismic networks and modern computing power, TWCs use the W-phase seismic moment method to determine accurate earthquake magnitudes and focal mechanisms for great earthquakes within 25 minutes. TWC scientists have also leveraged these modern computers to generate tsunami forecasts in a matter of minutes.Progress towards a global tsunami warning system has been substantial and today fully-functioning TWCs protect most of the world's coastlines. These improvements have also led to a substantial reduction of time required by the TWCs to detect, locate, and assess the tsunami threat from earthquakes occurring worldwide.

Intertidal nematode communities in the Mekong estuaries of Vietnam and their potential for biomonitoring.

PubMed

Quang, Ngo Xuan; Chau, Nguyen Ngoc; Smol, Nic; Prozorova, Larisa; Vanreusel, Ann

2016-02-01

Nematode communities in eight Mekong estuaries were investigated during the dry season. The aim of the study was to identify the structure and the diversity of the communities in relation to the main environmental characteristics. In each estuary, three to four intertidal sampling stations were identified at regular distances from the mouth to up to 45 km land inward. The nematode communities showed a strong correlation with sediment composition and to a lesser degree with chlorophyll a concentrations. Multivariate analysis resulted in the identification of four types of communities. We identified two types of Desmodora communities in the sandy mouth stations and two types of Parodontophora communities in the silty sand stations. One of the silt associated communities showed a preference for higher chlorophyll a concentrations, resulting in higher densities and higher diversity, mainly of monhysterid species. Because of the strong association between community structure and sediment composition, nematodes are a meaningful tool for monitoring changes in their environment. In case their community deviates from what is expected based on sediment, it may serve as an early warning for disturbance.

RED Alert – Early warning or detection of global re-emerging infectious disease (RED)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deshpande, Alina

This is the PDF of a presentation for a webinar given by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) on the early warning or detection of global re-emerging infectious disease (RED). First, there is an overview of LANL biosurveillance tools. Then, information is given about RED Alert. Next, a demonstration is given of a component prototype. RED Alert is an analysis tool that can provide early warning or detection of the re-emergence of an infectious disease at the global level, but through a local lens.

Recent Progress of Seismic Observation Networks in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okada, Y.

2013-04-01

Before the occurrence of disastrous Kobe earthquake in 1995, the number of high sensitivity seismograph stations operated in Japan was nearly 550 and was concentrated in the Kanto and Tokai districts, central Japan. In the wake of the Kobe earthquake, Japanese government has newly established the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion and started the reconstruction of seismic networks to evenly cover the whole Japan. The basic network is composed of three seismographs, i.e. high sensitivity seismograph (Hi-net), broadband seismograph (F-net), and strong motion seismograph (K-NET). A large majority of Hi-net stations are also equipped with a pair of strong motion sensors at the bottom of borehole and the ground surface (KiK-net). A plenty of high quality data obtained from these networks are circulated at once and is producing several new seismological findings as well as providing the basis for the Earthquake Early Warning system. In March 11, 2011, "Off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake" was generated with magnitude 9.0, which records the largest in the history of seismic observation in Japan. The greatest disaster on record was brought by huge tsunami with nearly 20 thousand killed or missing people. We are again noticed that seismic observation system is quite poor in the oceanic region compared to the richness of it in the inland region. In 2012, NIED has started the construction of ocean bottom seismic and tsunami observation network along the Japan Trench. It is planned to layout 154 stations with an average spacing of 30km, each of which is equipped with an accelerometer for seismic observation and a water pressure gauge for tsunami observation. We are expecting that more rapid and accurate warning of earthquake and tsunami becomes possible by this observing network.

The use of early warning scores to recognise and respond to patient deterioration in district nursing.

PubMed

Tucker, Guy; Lusher, Adele

2018-02-02

This discussion article focuses on the literature surrounding early warning scoring systems and their use in primary care, specifically within district nursing. Patient deterioration is a global concern, associated with high mortality rates and avoidable deaths. Early recognition and response by nursing and other health care staff has been attributed to early warning scoring systems (EWSS) and tools. However, the use of equivalent tools in the community appears to be lacking. This review concludes that there is no consensus over the use of EWSS in district nursing and culture of practice is varied, rather than standardised.

Assessing the Applicability of Earthquake Early Warning in Nicaragua.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massin, F.; Clinton, J. F.; Behr, Y.; Strauch, W.; Cauzzi, C.; Boese, M.; Talavera, E.; Tenorio, V.; Ramirez, J.

2016-12-01

Nicaragua, like much of Central America, suffers from frequent damaging earthquakes (6 M7+ earthquakes occurred in the last 100 years). Thrust events occur at the Middle America Trench where the Cocos plate subducts by 72-81 mm/yr eastward beneath the Caribbean plate. Shallow crustal events occur on-shore, with potential extensive damage as demonstrated in 1972 by a M6.2 earthquake, 5 km beneath Managua. This seismotectonic setting is challenging for Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) because the target events derive from both the offshore seismicity, with potentially large lead times but uncertain locations, and shallow seismicity in close proximity to densely urbanized areas, where an early warning would be short if available at all. Nevertheless, EEW could reduce Nicaragua's earthquake exposure. The Swiss Development and Cooperation Fund and the Nicaraguan Government have funded a collaboration between the Swiss Seismological Service (SED) at ETH Zurich and the Nicaraguan Geosciences Institute (INETER) in Managua to investigate and build a prototype EEW system for Nicaragua and the wider region. In this contribution, we present the potential of EEW to effectively alert Nicaragua and the neighbouring regions. We model alert time delays using all available seismic stations (existing and planned) in the region, as well as communication and processing delays (observed and optimal) to estimate current and potential performances of EEW alerts. Theoretical results are verified with the output from the Virtual Seismologist in SeisComP3 (VS(SC3)). VS(SC3) is implemented in the INETER SeisComP3 system for real-time operation and as an offline instance, that simulates real-time operation, to record processing delays of playback events. We compare our results with similar studies for Europe, California and New Zealand. We further highlight current capabilities and challenges for providing EEW alerts in Nicaragua. We also discuss how combining different algorithms, like e.g. VS and FinDer, can lead to a robust approach to EEW.

Early Warning Look Ahead Metrics: The Percent Milestone Backlog Metric

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shinn, Stephen A.; Anderson, Timothy P.

2017-01-01

All complex development projects experience delays and corresponding backlogs of their project control milestones during their acquisition lifecycles. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Projects Directorate (FPD) teamed with The Aerospace Corporation (Aerospace) to develop a collection of Early Warning Look Ahead metrics that would provide GSFC leadership with some independent indication of the programmatic health of GSFC flight projects. As part of the collection of Early Warning Look Ahead metrics, the Percent Milestone Backlog metric is particularly revealing, and has utility as a stand-alone execution performance monitoring tool. This paper describes the purpose, development methodology, and utility of the Percent Milestone Backlog metric. The other four Early Warning Look Ahead metrics are also briefly discussed. Finally, an example of the use of the Percent Milestone Backlog metric in providing actionable insight is described, along with examples of its potential use in other commodities.

Research on the Risk Early Warning Method of Material Supplier Performance in Power Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Peng; Zhang, Xi

2018-01-01

The early warning of supplier performance risk is still in the initial stage interiorly, and research on the early warning mechanism to identify, analyze and prevent the performance risk is few. In this paper, a new method aiming at marerial supplier performance risk in power industry is proposed, firstly, establishing a set of risk early warning indexes, Then use the ECM method to classify the indexes to form different risk grades. Then, improving Crock Ford risk quantization model by considering three indicators, including the stability of power system, economic losses and successful bid ratio to form the predictive risk grade, and ultimately using short board effect principle to form the ultimate risk grade to truly reflect the supplier performance risk. Finally, making empirical analysis on supplier performance and putting forward the counter measures and prevention strategies for different risks.

Landslide early warning system prototype with GIS analysis indicates by soil movement and rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Artha, Y.; Julian, E. S.

2018-01-01

The aim of this paper is developing and testing of landslide early warning system. The early warning system uses accelerometersas ground movement and tilt-sensing device and a water flow sensor. A microcentroller is used to process the input signal and activate the alarm. An LCD is used to display the acceleration in x,y and z axis. When the soil moved or shifted and rainfall reached 100 mm/day, the alarm rang and signal were sentto the monitoring center via a telemetry system.Data logging information and GIS spatial data can be monitored remotely as tables and graphics as well as in the form of geographical map with the help of web-GIS interface. The system were tested at Kampung Gerendong, Desa Putat Nutug, Kecamatan Ciseeng, Kabupaten Bogor. This area has 3.15 cumulative score, which mean vulnerable to landslide. The results show that the early warning system worked as planned.

UNAVCO Real-Time GNSS Positioning: High-Precision Static and Kinematic Testing of the Next Generation GNSS network.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berglund, H. T.; Hodgkinson, K. M.; Blume, F.; Mencin, D.; Phillips, D. A.; Meertens, C. M.; Mattioli, G. S.

2014-12-01

The GAGE Facility, managed by UNAVCO, operates a real-time GNSS (RT-GNSS) network of ~450 stations. The majority of the streaming stations are part of the EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO). Following community input from a real-time GNSS data products and formats meeting hosted by UNAVCO in Spring of 2011, UNAVCO now provides real-time PPP positions, and network solutions where practical, for all available stations using Trimble's PIVOT RTX server software and TrackRT. The UNAVCO real-time system has the potential to enhance our understanding of earthquakes, seismic wave propagation, volcanic eruptions, magmatic intrusions, movement of ice, landslides, and the dynamics of the atmosphere. Beyond the ever increasing applications in science and engineering, RT-GNSS has the potential to provide early warning of hazards to emergency managers, utilities, other infrastructure managers, first responders and others. Upgrades to the network include eight Trimble NetR9 GNSS receivers with GLONASS and receiver-based RTX capabilities and sixteen new co-located MEMS based accelerometers. These new capabilities will allow integration of GNSS and strong motion data to produce broad-spectrum waveforms improving Earthquake Early Warning systems. Controlled outdoor kinematic and static experiments provide a useful method for evaluating and comparing real-time systems. UNAVCO has developed a portable low-cost antenna actuator to characterize the kinematic performance of receiver- and server-based real-time positioning algorithms and identify system limitations. We have performed tests using controlled 1-d antenna motions and will present comparisons between these and other post-processed kinematic algorithms including GIPSY-OASIS and TRACK. In addition to kinematic testing, long-term static testing of Trimble's RTX service is ongoing at UNAVCO and will be used to characterize the stability of the position time-series produced by RTX. In addition, with the goal of characterizing stability and improving software and higher level products based on real-time and high frequency GNSS time series, we present an overview of the UNAVCO RT-GPS system, a comparison of the UNAVCO generated real-time, static and community data products, and an overview of available common data sets.

Internet-Based Solutions for a Secure and Efficient Seismic Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhadha, R.; Black, M.; Bruton, C.; Hauksson, E.; Stubailo, I.; Watkins, M.; Alvarez, M.; Thomas, V.

2017-12-01

The Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN), operated by Caltech and USGS, leverages modern Internet-based computing technologies to provide timely earthquake early warning for damage reduction, event notification, ShakeMap, and other data products. Here we present recent and ongoing innovations in telemetry, security, cloud computing, virtualization, and data analysis that have allowed us to develop a network that runs securely and efficiently.Earthquake early warning systems must process seismic data within seconds of being recorded, and SCSN maintains a robust and resilient network of more than 350 digital strong motion and broadband seismic stations to achieve this goal. We have continued to improve the path diversity and fault tolerance within our network, and have also developed new tools for latency monitoring and archiving.Cyberattacks are in the news almost daily, and with most of our seismic data streams running over the Internet, it is only a matter of time before SCSN is targeted. To ensure system integrity and availability across our network, we have implemented strong security, including encryption and Virtual Private Networks (VPNs).SCSN operates its own data center at Caltech, but we have also installed real-time servers on Amazon Web Services (AWS), to provide an additional level of redundancy, and eventually to allow full off-site operations continuity for our network. Our AWS systems receive data from Caltech-based import servers and directly from field locations, and are able to process the seismic data, calculate earthquake locations and magnitudes, and distribute earthquake alerts, directly from the cloud.We have also begun a virtualization project at our Caltech data center, allowing us to serve data from Virtual Machines (VMs), making efficient use of high-performance hardware and increasing flexibility and scalability of our data processing systems.Finally, we have developed new monitoring of station average noise levels at most stations. Noise monitoring is effective at identifying anthropogenic noise sources and malfunctioning acquisition equipment. We have built a dynamic display of results with sorting and mapping capabilities that allow us to quickly identify problematic sites and areas with elevated noise.

Augmenting Onshore GPS Displacements with Offshore Observations to Improve Slip Characterization for Cascadia Subduction Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saunders, J. K.; Haase, J. S.

2017-12-01

The rupture location of a Mw 8 megathrust earthquake can dramatically change the near-source tsunami impact, where a shallow earthquake can produce a disproportionally large tsunami for its magnitude. Because the locking pattern of the shallow Cascadia megathrust is unconstrained due to the lack of widespread seafloor geodetic observations, near-source tsunami early warning systems need to be able to identify shallow, near-trench earthquakes. Onshore GPS displacements provide low frequency ground motions and coseismic offsets for characterizing tsunamigenic earthquakes, however the one-sided distribution of data may not be able to uniquely determine the rupture region. We examine how augmenting the current real-time GPS network in Cascadia with different offshore station configurations improves static slip inversion solutions for Mw 8 earthquakes at different rupture depths. Two offshore coseismic data types are tested in this study: vertical-only, which would be available using existing technology for bottom pressure sensors, and all-component, which could be achieved by combining pressure sensors with real-time GPS-Acoustic observations. We find that both types of offshore data better constrain the rupture region for a shallow earthquake compared to onshore data alone when offshore stations are located above the rupture. However, inversions using vertical-only offshore data tend to underestimate the amount of slip for a shallow rupture, which we show underestimates the tsunami impact. Including offshore horizontal coseismic data into the inversions improves the slip solutions for a given offshore station configuration, especially in terms of maximum slip. This suggests that while real-time GPS-Acoustic sensors may have a long development timeline, they will have more impact for inversion-based tsunami early warning systems than bottom pressure sensors. We also conduct sensitivity studies using kinematic models with varying rupture speeds and rise times as a proxy for expected rigidity changes with depth along the megathrust. We find distinguishing features in displacement waveforms that can be used to infer primary rupture region. We discuss how kinematic inversion methods that use these characteristics in high-rate GPS data could be applied to the Cascadia subduction zone.

HRAS: a webserver for early warning of human health risk brought by aflatoxin.

PubMed

Hu, Ruifeng; Zeng, Xu; Gao, Weiwei; Wang, Qian; Liu, Zhihua

2013-02-01

Most people are aware that outdoor air pollution can damage their health, but many do not know that indoor air pollution can also exhibit significant negative health effects. Fungi parasitizing in air conditioning and ventilation systems can be one of indoor air pollution sources. Aflatoxin produced by Aspergillus flavus (A. flavus) became a central focus of indoor air pollution, especially in farmer markets. Therefore we developed an early warning system, Health Risk Assessment System, to estimate the growth rate of A. flavus, predict the amount of aflatoxin and provide early warning information. Firstly, the growth of A. flavus and the production of aflatoxin under different conditions were widely obtained through a comprehensive literature review. Secondly, three mathematical models were established to predict the A. flavus colony growth rate, lag phase duration and aflatoxin content, as functions of temperature and water activity based on present studies. Finally, all the results were evaluated by the user-supplied data using PHP programming language. We utilized the web page to show the results and display warning information. The JpGraph library was used to create a dynamic line chart, refreshing the warning information dynamically in real-time. The HARS provides accurate information for early warning purposes to let us take timely steps to protect ourselves.

A hazard-independent approach for the standardised multi-channel dissemination of warning messages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esbri Palomares, M. A.; Hammitzsch, M.; Lendholt, M.

2012-04-01

The tsunami disaster affecting the Indian Ocean region on Christmas 2004 demonstrated very clearly the shortcomings in tsunami detection, public warning processes as well as intergovernmental warning message exchange in the Indian Ocean region. In that regard, early warning systems require that the dissemination of early warning messages has to be executed in way that ensures that the message delivery is timely; the message content is understandable, usable and accurate. To that end, diverse and multiple dissemination channels must be used to increase the chance of the messages reaching all affected persons in a hazard scenario. In addition to this, usage of internationally accepted standards for the warning dissemination such as the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) and Emergency Data Exchange Language (EDXL) Distribution Element specified by the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS) increase the interoperability among different warning systems enabling thus the concept of system-of-systems proposed by GEOSS. The project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), co-funded by the European Commission under the 6th Framework Programme, aims at strengthening the early warning capacities by building an innovative generation of interoperable tsunami early warning systems based on the above mentioned concepts following a Service-oriented Architecture (SOA) approach. The project focuses on the downstream part of the hazard information processing where customized, user-tailored warning messages and alerts flow from the warning centre to the responsible authorities and/or the public with their different needs and responsibilities. The information logistics services within DEWS generate tailored EDXL-DE/CAP warning messages for each user that must receive the message according to their preferences, e.g., settings for language, interested areas, dissemination channels, etc.. However, the significant difference in the implementation and capabilities of different dissemination channels such as SMS, email and television, have bearing on the information processing required for delivery and consumption of a DEWS EDXL-DE/CAP message over each dissemination channel. These messages may include additional information in the form of maps, graphs, documents, sensor observations, etc. Therefore, the generated messages are pre-processed by channel adaptors in the information dissemination services converting it into a format that is suitable for end-to-end delivery over the dissemination channels without any semantic distortion. The approach followed by DEWS for disseminating warnings not only relies on traditional communication ways used by the already established early warnings such as the delivery of faxes and phone calls but takes into consideration the use of other broadly used communication channels such as SMS, email, narrowcast and broadcast television, instant messaging, Voice over IP, and radio. It also takes advantage of social media channels like RSS feeds, Facebook, Twitter, etc., enabling a multiplier effect, like in the case of radio and television, and thus allowing to create mash-ups by aggregating other sources of information to the original message. Finally, status information is also important in order to assess and understand whether the process of disseminating the warning to the message consumers has been successfully completed or the process failed at some point of the dissemination chain. To that end, CAP-based messages generated within the information dissemination services provide the semantics for those fields that are of interest within the context of reporting the warning dissemination status in DEWS.

The impact of Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems on nurses' competence: An integrative literature review and synthesis.

PubMed

Jensen, Jørghild Karlotte; Skår, Randi; Tveit, Bodil

2018-04-01

To describe, interpret and synthesise the current research findings on the impact of the Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems on nurses' competence in identifying and managing deteriorating patients in general hospital wards. As patient safety initiatives designed to ensure the early identification and management of deteriorating patients, the Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems have broad appeal. However, it is still unclear how these systems impact nurses' competence when these systems are used in general hospital wards. CINAHL, PubMed, Cochrane, EMBASE and Ovid MEDLINE databases were systematically searched for relevant articles. Articles were appraised, a thematic analysis was conducted, and similar and divergent perspectives on emergent themes and subthemes were extracted by a team of researchers. Thirty-six studies met the inclusion criteria. The analysis of findings showed how the Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems impacted three competence areas: (i) Nurses' competence in assessing and caring for patients related to the subthemes: (a) sensing clinical deterioration and (b) the development of skills and knowledge. (ii). Nurses' competence in referring patients, related to the subthemes: (a) deciding whether to summon help and (b) the language and communication lines in the referral process. (ii) Nurses' coping and mastery experiences. The impact of the Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems on nurses' competence in identifying and managing deteriorating patients is beneficial but also somewhat contradictory. A greater understanding of nurses' development of competence when using the Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems will facilitate the design of implementation strategies and the use of these systems to improve practice. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Early Warning Systems: Re-Engaging Chronic Truants

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chorneau, Tom

2012-01-01

School attendance can be an early indicator that something is going wrong with a student. Gathering, analyzing, and acting on attendance information is a first step toward school improvement. Meanwhile, the majority of the states are moving to build and enhance what are called "early warning systems," intended to flag at-risk students during their…

Design of a reliable and operational landslide early warning system at regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvello, Michele; Piciullo, Luca; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Melillo, Massimo; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Peruccacci, Silvia; Guzzetti, Fausto

2017-04-01

Landslide early warning systems at regional scale are used to warn authorities, civil protection personnel and the population about the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides over wide areas, typically through the prediction and measurement of meteorological variables. A warning model for these systems must include a regional correlation law and a decision algorithm. A regional correlation law can be defined as a functional relationship between rainfall and landslides; it is typically based on thresholds of rainfall indicators (e.g., cumulated rainfall, rainfall duration) related to different exceedance probabilities of landslide occurrence. A decision algorithm can be defined as a set of assumptions and procedures linking rainfall thresholds to warning levels. The design and the employment of an operational and reliable early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides at regional scale depend on the identification of a reliable correlation law as well as on the definition of a suitable decision algorithm. Herein, a five-step process chain addressing both issues and based on rainfall thresholds is proposed; the procedure is tested in a landslide-prone area of the Campania region in southern Italy. To this purpose, a database of 96 shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in the period 2003-2010 and rainfall data gathered from 58 rain gauges are used. First, a set of rainfall thresholds are defined applying a frequentist method to reconstructed rainfall conditions triggering landslides in the test area. In the second step, several thresholds at different exceedance probabilities are evaluated, and different percentile combinations are selected for the activation of three warning levels. Subsequently, within steps three and four, the issuing of warning levels is based on the comparison, over time and for each combination, between the measured rainfall and the pre-defined warning level thresholds. Finally, the optimal percentile combination to be employed in the regional early warning system is selected evaluating the model performance in terms of success and error indicators by means of the "event, duration matrix, performance" (EDuMaP) method.

Adapting the EDuMaP method to test the performance of the Norwegian early warning system for weather-induced landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piciullo, Luca; Dahl, Mads-Peter; Devoli, Graziella; Colleuille, Hervé; Calvello, Michele

2017-06-01

The Norwegian national landslide early warning system (LEWS), operational since 2013, is managed by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate and was designed for monitoring and forecasting the hydrometeorological conditions potentially triggering slope failures. Decision-making in the LEWS is based upon rainfall thresholds, hydrometeorological and real-time landslide observations as well as on landslide inventory and susceptibility maps. Daily alerts are issued throughout the country considering variable size warning zones. Warnings are issued once per day for the following 3 days and can be updated according to weather forecasts and information gathered by the monitoring network. The performance of the LEWS operational in Norway has been evaluated applying the EDuMaP method, which is based on the computation of a duration matrix relating number of landslides and warning levels issued in a warning zone. In the past, this method has been exclusively employed to analyse the performance of regional early warning models considering fixed warning zones. Herein, an original approach is proposed for the computation of the elements of the duration matrix in the case of early warning models issuing alerts on variable size areas. The approach has been used to evaluate the warnings issued in Western Norway, in the period 2013-2014, considering two datasets of landslides. The results indicate that the landslide datasets do not significantly influence the performance evaluation, although a slightly better performance is registered for the smallest dataset. Different performance results are observed as a function of the values adopted for one of the most important input parameters of EDuMaP, the landslide density criterion (i.e. setting the thresholds to differentiate among classes of landslide events). To investigate this issue, a parametric analysis has been conducted; the results of the analysis show significant differences among computed performances when absolute or relative landslide density criteria are considered.

Using C-Band Dual-Polarization Radar Signatures to Improve Convective Wind Forecasting at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and NASA Kennedy Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amiot, Corey G.; Carey, Lawrence D.; Roeder, William P.; McNamara, Todd M.; Blakeslee, Richard J.

2017-01-01

The United States Air Force's 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) is the organization responsible for monitoring atmospheric conditions at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and NASA Kennedy Space Center (CCAFS/KSC) and issuing warnings for hazardous weather conditions when the need arises. One such warning is issued for convective wind events, for which lead times of 30 and 60 minutes are desired for events with peak wind gusts of 35 knots or greater (i.e., Threshold-1) and 50 knots or greater (i.e., Threshold-2), respectively (Roeder et al. 2014).

Exploring the utility of real-time hydrologic data for landslide early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirus, B. B.; Smith, J. B.; Becker, R.; Baum, R. L.; Koss, E.

2017-12-01

Early warning systems can provide critical information for operations managers, emergency planners, and the public to help reduce fatalities, injuries, and economic losses due to landsliding. For shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides early warning systems typically use empirical rainfall thresholds, whereas the actual triggering mechanism involves the non-linear hydrological processes of infiltration, evapotranspiration, and hillslope drainage that are more difficult to quantify. Because hydrologic monitoring has demonstrated that shallow landslides are often preceded by a rise in soil moisture and pore-water pressures, some researchers have developed early warning criteria that attempt to account for these antecedent wetness conditions through relatively simplistic storage metrics or soil-water balance modeling. Here we explore the potential for directly incorporating antecedent wetness into landslide early warning criteria using recent landslide inventories and in-situ hydrologic monitoring near Seattle, WA, and Portland, OR. We use continuous, near-real-time telemetered soil moisture and pore-water pressure data measured within a few landslide-prone hillslopes in combination with measured and forecasted rainfall totals to inform easy-to-interpret landslide initiation thresholds. Objective evaluation using somewhat limited landslide inventories suggests that our new thresholds based on subsurface hydrologic monitoring and rainfall data compare favorably to the capabilities of existing rainfall-only thresholds for the Seattle area, whereas there are no established rainfall thresholds for the Portland area. This preliminary investigation provides a proof-of-concept for the utility of developing landslide early warning criteria in two different geologic settings using real-time subsurface hydrologic measurements from in-situ instrumentation.

Establishing an early warning alert and response network following the Solomon Islands tsunami in 2013

PubMed Central

Bilve, Augustine; Nogareda, Francisco; Joshua, Cynthia; Ross, Lester; Betcha, Christopher; Durski, Kara; Fleischl, Juliet

2014-01-01

Abstract Problem On 6 February 2013, an 8.0 magnitude earthquake generated a tsunami that struck the Santa Cruz Islands, Solomon Islands, killing 10 people and displacing over 4700. Approach A post-disaster assessment of the risk of epidemic disease transmission recommended the implementation of an early warning alert and response network (EWARN) to rapidly detect, assess and respond to potential outbreaks in the aftermath of the tsunami. Local setting Almost 40% of the Santa Cruz Islands’ population were displaced by the disaster, and living in cramped temporary camps with poor or absent sanitation facilities and insufficient access to clean water. There was no early warning disease surveillance system. Relevant changes By 25 February, an EWARN was operational in five health facilities that served 90% of the displaced population. Eight priority diseases or syndromes were reported weekly; unexpected health events were reported immediately. Between 25 February and 19 May, 1177 target diseases or syndrome cases were reported. Seven alerts were investigated. No sustained transmission or epidemics were identified. Reporting compliance was 85%. The EWARN was then transitioned to the routine four-syndrome early warning disease surveillance system. Lesson learnt It was necessary to conduct a detailed assessment to evaluate the risk and potential impact of serious infectious disease outbreaks, to assess whether and how enhanced early warning disease surveillance should be implemented. Local capacities and available resources should be considered in planning EWARN implementation. An EWARN can be an opportunity to establish or strengthen early warning disease surveillance capabilities. PMID:25378746

Effects of stressor characteristics on early warning signs of critical transitions and "critical coupling" in complex dynamical systems.

PubMed

Blume, Steffen O P; Sansavini, Giovanni

2017-12-01

Complex dynamical systems face abrupt transitions into unstable and catastrophic regimes. These critical transitions are triggered by gradual modifications in stressors, which push the dynamical system towards unstable regimes. Bifurcation analysis can characterize such critical thresholds, beyond which systems become unstable. Moreover, the stochasticity of the external stressors causes small-scale fluctuations in the system response. In some systems, the decomposition of these signal fluctuations into precursor signals can reveal early warning signs prior to the critical transition. Here, we present a dynamical analysis of a power system subjected to an increasing load level and small-scale stochastic load perturbations. We show that the auto- and cross-correlations of bus voltage magnitudes increase, leading up to a Hopf bifurcation point, and further grow until the system collapses. This evidences a gradual transition into a state of "critical coupling," which is complementary to the established concept of "critical slowing down." Furthermore, we analyze the effects of the type of load perturbation and load characteristics on early warning signs and find that gradient changes in the autocorrelation provide early warning signs of the imminent critical transition under white-noise but not for auto-correlated load perturbations. Furthermore, the cross-correlation between all voltage magnitude pairs generally increases prior to and beyond the Hopf bifurcation point, indicating "critical coupling," but cannot provide early warning indications. Finally, we show that the established early warning indicators are oblivious to limit-induced bifurcations and, in the case of the power system model considered here, only react to an approaching Hopf bifurcation.

The effect of adult Early Warning Systems education on nurses' knowledge, confidence and clinical performance: A systematic review.

PubMed

Saab, Mohamad M; McCarthy, Bridie; Andrews, Tom; Savage, Eileen; Drummond, Frances J; Walshe, Nuala; Forde, Mary; Breen, Dorothy; Henn, Patrick; Drennan, Jonathan; Hegarty, Josephine

2017-11-01

This review aims to determine the effect of adult Early Warning Systems education on nurses' knowledge, confidence and clinical performance. Early Warning Systems support timely identification of clinical deterioration and prevention of avoidable deaths. Several educational programmes have been designed to help nurses recognize and manage deteriorating patients. Little is known as to the effectiveness of these programmes. Systematic review. Academic Search Complete, CINAHL, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, PsycARTICLES, Psychology and Behavioral Science Collection, SocINDEX and the UK & Ireland Reference Centre, EMBASE, the Turning Research Into Practice database, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and Grey Literature sources were searched between October and November 2015. This is a quantitative systematic review using Cochrane methods. Studies published between January 2011 - November 2015 in English were sought. The risk of bias, level of evidence and the quality of evidence per outcome were assessed. Eleven articles with 10 studies were included. Nine studies addressed clinical performance, four addressed knowledge and two addressed confidence. Knowledge, vital signs recording and Early Warning Score calculation were improved in the short term. Two interventions had no effect on nurses' response to clinical deterioration and use of communication tools. This review highlights the importance of measuring outcomes using standardized tools and valid and reliable instruments. Using longitudinal designs, researchers are encouraged to investigate the effect of Early Warning Systems educational programmes. These can include interactive e-learning, on-site interdisciplinary Early Warning Scoring systems training sessions and simulated scenarios. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Utility of High Temporal Resolution Observations for Heat Health Event Characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palecki, M. A.

2017-12-01

Many heat health watch systems produce a binary on/off warning when conditions are predicted to exceed a given threshold during a day. Days with warnings and their mortality/morbidity statistics are analyzed relative to days not warned to determine the impacts of the event on human health, the effectiveness of warnings, and other statistics. The climate analyses of the heat waves or extreme temperature events are often performed with hourly or daily observations of air temperature, humidity, and other measured or derived variables, especially the maxima and minima of these data. However, since the beginning of the century, 5-minute observations are readily available for many weather and climate stations in the United States. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) has been collecting 5-minute observations from the NOAA Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) stations since 2000, and from the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) stations since 2005. This presentation will demonstrate the efficacy of utilizing 5-minute environmental observations to characterize heat waves by counting the length of time conditions exceed extreme thresholds based on individual and multiple variables and on derived variables such as the heat index. The length and depth of recovery periods between daytime heating periods will also be examined. The length of time under extreme conditions will influence health outcomes for those directly exposed. Longer periods of dangerous conditions also could increase the chances for poor health outcomes for those only exposed intermittently through cumulative impacts.

Early warning reporting categories analysis of recall and complaints data.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-12-31

This analysis was performed to assist the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) in identifying components and systems to be included in early warning reporting (EWR) categories that would be based upon historical safety-related recal...

New insights into flood warning reception and emergency response by affected parties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreibich, Heidi; Müller, Meike; Schröter, Kai; Thieken, Annegret H.

2017-11-01

Flood damage can be mitigated if the parties at risk are reached by flood warnings and if they know how to react appropriately. To gain more knowledge about warning reception and emergency response of private households and companies, surveys were undertaken after the August 2002 and the June 2013 floods in Germany. Despite pronounced regional differences, the results show a clear overall picture: in 2002, early warnings did not work well; e.g. many households (27 %) and companies (45 %) stated that they had not received any flood warnings. Additionally, the preparedness of private households and companies was low in 2002, mainly due to a lack of flood experience. After the 2002 flood, many initiatives were launched and investments undertaken to improve flood risk management, including early warnings and an emergency response in Germany. In 2013, only a small share of the affected households (5 %) and companies (3 %) were not reached by any warnings. Additionally, private households and companies were better prepared. For instance, the share of companies which have an emergency plan in place has increased from 10 % in 2002 to 34 % in 2013. However, there is still room for improvement, which needs to be triggered mainly by effective risk and emergency communication. The challenge is to continuously maintain and advance an integrated early warning and emergency response system even without the occurrence of extreme floods.

Availability and Reliability of Disaster Early Warning Systems and the IT Infrastructure Library

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wächter, J.; Loewe, P.

2012-12-01

The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 caused an information catastrophy. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages. A key challenge stems from the main objective of the IOC Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from sensors to Warning Centers, has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. This task is complicated by the fact that in term of ICT system life cycles tsunami are very rare event resulting in very difficult framing conditions to safeguard the availability and reliability of TWS. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). This ongoing project focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application. All technical development in TRIDEC is based on mature system architecture models and industry standards. The use of standards applies also to the operation of individual TRIDEC reference installations and their interlinking into an integrated service infrastructure for supranational warning services: A set of best practices for IT service management is used to align the TEWS software services with the requirements by the Early Warning Centre management by defining Service Level Agreements (SLA) and ensuring appliance. For this, the concept of service lifecycles is adapted for the TEWS domain, which is laid out in the IT Infrastructure Library (ITIL) by the United Kingdom's Office of Government Commerce (OGC). The cyclic procedures, tasks and checklists described by ITIL are used to establish a baseline to plan, implement, and maintain TEWS service components in the long run. This allows to ensure compliance with given international TEWS standards and to measure improvement of the provided services against a gold-standard.

REWSET: A prototype seismic and tsunami early warning system in Rhodes island, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadopoulos, Gerasimos; Argyris, Ilias; Aggelou, Savvas; Karastathis, Vasilis

2014-05-01

Tsunami warning in near-field conditions is a critical issue in the Mediterranean Sea since the most important tsunami sources are situated within tsunami wave travel times starting from about five minutes. The project NEARTOWARN (2012-2013) supported by the EU-DG ECHO contributed substantially to the development of new tools for the near-field tsunami early warning in the Mediterranean. One of the main achievements is the development of a local warning system in the test-site of Rhodes island (Rhodes Early Warning System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis - REWSET). The system is composed by three main subsystems: (1) a network of eight seismic early warning devices installed in four different localities of the island, one in the civil protection, another in the Fire Brigade and another two in municipality buildings; (2) two radar-type (ultrasonic) tide-gauges installed in the eastern coastal zine of the island which was selected since research on the historical earthquake and tsunami activity has indicated that the most important, near-field tsunami sources are situated offshore to the east of Rhodes; (3) a crisis Geographic Management System (GMS), which is a web-based and GIS-based application incorporating a variety of thematic maps and other information types. The seismic early warning devices activate by strong (magnitude around 6 or more) earthquakes occurring at distances up to about 100 km from Rhodes, thus providing immediate mobilization of the civil protection. The tide-gauges transmit sea level data, while during the crisis the GMS supports decisions to be made by civil protection. In the near future it is planned the REWSET system to be integrated with national and international systems. REWSET is a prototype which certainly could be developed in other coastal areas of the Mediterranean and beyond.

UNAVCO-PBO Southwest Region Network Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walls, C. P.; Mann, D.; Basset, A.; Sklar, J.; Jarvis, C.; Pitcher, T.; Lawrence, S.; Greathouse, M.; Feaux, K.

2012-12-01

The UNAVCO Southwest region of the Plate Boundary Observatory manages 470 continuously operating GPS stations located principally along the transform system of the San Andreas Fault, Eastern California Shear Zone and the northern Baja peninsula. In the past year, network uptime averaged 98% with greater than 99% data acquisition. Communications range from CDMA modem (314), radio (100), Vsat (30), DSL/T1/other (25) to manual download (1). Thirty-four stations have WXT520 metpacks. Sixty-four stations stream 1 Hz data over the VRS3Net typically with <0.5 second latency. Over 650 maintenance activities were performed during 341 onsite visits out of approximately 346 engineer field days. Within the past year there have been 7 incidences of minor (attempted theft) to moderate vandalism (solar panel stolen) with one total loss of receiver and communications gear. Security was enhanced at these sites through fencing and more secure station configurations. UNAVCO is working with NOAA to stream real-time GPS and met data from PBO stations with WXT520 meteorological sensors and high rate data communications. These streams support watershed and flood analyses for regional early-warning systems related to NOAA's work with California Department of Water Resources. Network-wide NOAA receives a total of 54 streams including stations in Cascadia. In 2008 PBO became the steward of 209 existing network stations ("Nucleus stations") of which 140 are in the SW region that included SCIGN, BARD, BARGEN stations. Due to the mix of incompatible equipment used between PBO and existing network stations a project was undertaken to standardize existing network GPS stations to PBO specifications by upgrading antenna cabling, power systems and enclosures. In 2012 the Nucleus upgrade project was completed.

77 FR 55605 - Early Warning Reporting, Foreign Defect Reporting, and Motor Vehicle and Equipment Recall...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-10

... requires quarterly reporting of early warning information: Production information; information on incidents... manufacturers, and other equipment manufacturers) and the annual production of the entity. The EWR information... vehicle type as part of [[Page 55608

Coral Reef Early Warning System (CREWS) RPC Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estep, Leland; Spruce, Joseph P.; Hall, Callie

2007-01-01

This viewgraph document reviews the background, objectives, methodology, validation, and present status of the Coral Reef Early Warning System (CREWS) Rapid Prototyping Capability (RPC) experiment. The potential NASA contribution to CREWS Decision Support Tool (DST) centers on remotely sensed imagery products.

The seismic project of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oppenheimer, D.H.; Bittenbinder, A.N.; Bogaert, B.M.; Buland, R.P.; Dietz, L.D.; Hansen, R.A.; Malone, S.D.; McCreery, C.S.; Sokolowski, T.J.; Whitmore, P.M.; Weaver, C.S.

2005-01-01

In 1997, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the five western States of Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington joined in a partnership called the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to enhance the quality and quantity of seismic data provided to the NOAA tsunami warning centers in Alaska and Hawaii. The NTHMP funded a seismic project that now provides the warning centers with real-time seismic data over dedicated communication links and the Internet from regional seismic networks monitoring earthquakes in the five western states, the U.S. National Seismic Network in Colorado, and from domestic and global seismic stations operated by other agencies. The goal of the project is to reduce the time needed to issue a tsunami warning by providing the warning centers with high-dynamic range, broadband waveforms in near real time. An additional goal is to reduce the likelihood of issuing false tsunami warnings by rapidly providing to the warning centers parametric information on earthquakes that could indicate their tsunamigenic potential, such as hypocenters, magnitudes, moment tensors, and shake distribution maps. New or upgraded field instrumentation was installed over a 5-year period at 53 seismic stations in the five western states. Data from these instruments has been integrated into the seismic network utilizing Earthworm software. This network has significantly reduced the time needed to respond to teleseismic and regional earthquakes. Notably, the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center responded to the 28 February 2001 Mw 6.8 Nisqually earthquake beneath Olympia, Washington within 2 minutes compared to an average response time of over 10 minutes for the previous 18 years. ?? Springer 2005.

Early warning systems for the management of chronic heart failure: a systematic literature review of cost-effectiveness models.

PubMed

Albuquerque De Almeida, Fernando; Al, Maiwenn; Koymans, Ron; Caliskan, Kadir; Kerstens, Ankie; Severens, Johan L

2018-04-01

Describing the general and methodological characteristics of decision-analytical models used in the economic evaluation of early warning systems for the management of chronic heart failure patients and performing a quality assessment of their methodological characteristics is expected to provide concise and useful insight to inform the future development of decision-analytical models in the field of heart failure management. Areas covered: The literature on decision-analytical models for the economic evaluation of early warning systems for the management of chronic heart failure patients was systematically reviewed. Nine electronic databases were searched through the combination of synonyms for heart failure and sensitive filters for cost-effectiveness and early warning systems. Expert commentary: The retrieved models show some variability with regards to their general study characteristics. Overall, they display satisfactory methodological quality, even though some points could be improved, namely on the consideration and discussion of any competing theories regarding model structure and disease progression, identification of key parameters and the use of expert opinion, and uncertainty analyses. A comprehensive definition of early warning systems and further research under this label should be pursued. To improve the transparency of economic evaluation publications, authors should make available detailed technical information regarding the published models.

Research and application of a novel hybrid air quality early-warning system: A case study in China.

PubMed

Li, Chen; Zhu, Zhijie

2018-06-01

As one of the most serious meteorological disasters in modern society, air pollution has received extensive attention from both citizens and decision-makers. With the complexity of pollution components and the uncertainty of prediction, it is both critical and challenging to construct an effective and practical early-warning system. In this paper, a novel hybrid air quality early-warning system for pollution contaminant monitoring and analysis was proposed. To improve the efficiency of the system, an advanced attribute selection method based on fuzzy evaluation and rough set theory was developed to select the main pollution contaminants for cities. Moreover, a hybrid model composed of the theory of "decomposition and ensemble", an extreme learning machine and an advanced heuristic algorithm was developed for pollution contaminant prediction; it provides deterministic and interval forecasting for tackling the uncertainty of future air quality. Daily pollution contaminants of six major cities in China were selected as a dataset to evaluate the practicality and effectiveness of the developed air quality early-warning system. The superior experimental performance determined by the values of several error indexes illustrated that the proposed early-warning system was of great effectiveness and efficiency. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Community-based early warning systems for flood risk mitigation in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Paul J.; Brown, Sarah; Dugar, Sumit

2017-03-01

This paper focuses on the use of community-based early warning systems for flood resilience in Nepal. The first part of the work outlines the evolution and current status of these community-based systems, highlighting the limited lead times currently available for early warning. The second part of the paper focuses on the development of a robust operational flood forecasting methodology for use by the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) to enhance early warning lead times. The methodology uses data-based physically interpretable time series models and data assimilation to generate probabilistic forecasts, which are presented in a simple visual tool. The approach is designed to work in situations of limited data availability with an emphasis on sustainability and appropriate technology. The successful application of the forecast methodology to the flood-prone Karnali River basin in western Nepal is outlined, increasing lead times from 2-3 to 7-8 h. The challenges faced in communicating probabilistic forecasts to the last mile of the existing community-based early warning systems across Nepal is discussed. The paper concludes with an assessment of the applicability of this approach in basins and countries beyond Karnali and Nepal and an overview of key lessons learnt from this initiative.

Feasibility of Using Elastic Wave Velocity Monitoring for Early Warning of Rainfall-Induced Slope Failure

PubMed Central

Chen, Yulong; Irfan, Muhammad; Uchimura, Taro; Zhang, Ke

2018-01-01

Rainfall-induced landslides are one of the most widespread slope instability phenomena posing a serious risk to public safety worldwide so that their temporal prediction is of great interest to establish effective warning systems. The objective of this study is to determine the effectiveness of elastic wave velocities in the surface layer of the slope in monitoring, prediction and early warning of landslide. The small-scale fixed and varied, and large-scale slope model tests were conducted. Analysis of the results has established that the elastic wave velocity continuously decreases in response of moisture content and deformation and there was a distinct surge in the decrease rate of wave velocity when failure was initiated. Based on the preliminary results of this analysis, the method using the change in elastic wave velocity proves superior for landslide early warning and suggests that a warning be issued at switch of wave velocity decrease rate. PMID:29584699

An Envelope Based Feedback Control System for Earthquake Early Warning: Reality Check Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heaton, T. H.; Karakus, G.; Beck, J. L.

2016-12-01

Earthquake early warning systems are, in general, designed to be open loop control systems in such a way that the output, i.e., the warning messages, only depend on the input, i.e., recorded ground motions, up to the moment when the message is issued in real-time. We propose an algorithm, which is called Reality Check Algorithm (RCA), which would assess the accuracy of issued warning messages, and then feed the outcome of the assessment back into the system. Then, the system would modify its messages if necessary. That is, we are proposing to convert earthquake early warning systems into feedback control systems by integrating them with RCA. RCA works by continuously monitoring and comparing the observed ground motions' envelopes to the predicted envelopes of Virtual Seismologist (Cua 2005). Accuracy of magnitude and location (both spatial and temporal) estimations of the system are assessed separately by probabilistic classification models, which are trained by a Sparse Bayesian Learning technique called Automatic Relevance Determination prior.

75 FR 19885 - Restricted Areas and Danger Zone at Naval Station Mayport, FL

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-16

... will be in place 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Warning signs notifying individuals of the... authorized representative. This restriction will be in place 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Warning signs... areas identified in this section 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Any person or vessel encroaching within...

33 CFR 334.500 - St. Johns River, Atlantic Ocean, Sherman Creek; restricted areas and danger zone, Naval Station...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... north by Perimeter Road, and on the east by Mayport Road. (5) Danger zone. The danger zone shall... hours a day, seven days a week. Warning signs notifying individuals of the restricted area boundary and... will be in place 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Warning signs notifying individuals of the...

On the design of a bioacoustic sensor for the early detection of the red palm weevil.

PubMed

Martínez Rach, Miguel; Migallón Gomis, Héctor; López Granado, Otoniel; Perez Malumbres, Manuel; Martí Campoy, Antonio; Serrano Martín, Juan José

2013-01-30

During the last two decades Red Palm Weevil (RPW, Rynchophorus Ferrugineus) has become one of the most dangerous threats to palm trees in many parts of the World. Its early detection is difficult, since palm trees do not show visual evidence of infection until it is too late for them to recover. For this reason the development of efficient early detection mechanisms is a critical element of RPW pest management systems. One of the early detection mechanisms proposed in the literature is based on acoustic monitoring, as the activity of RPW larvae inside the palm trunk is audible for human operators under acceptable environmental noise levels (rural areas, night periods, etc.). In this work we propose the design of an autonomous bioacoustic sensor that can be installed in every palm tree under study and is able to analyze the captured audio signal during large periods of time. The results of the audio analysis would be reported wirelessly to a control station, to be subsequently processed and conveniently stored. That control station is to be accessible via the Internet. It is programmed to send warning messages when predefined alarm thresholds are reached, thereby allowing supervisors to check on-line the status and evolution of the palm tree orchards. We have developed a bioacoustic sensor prototype and performed an extensive set of experiments to measure its detection capability, achieving average detection rates over 90%.

On the Design of a Bioacoustic Sensor for the Early Detection of the Red Palm Weevil

PubMed Central

Rach, Miguel Martínez; Gomis, Héctor Migallón; Granado, Otoniel López; Malumbres, Manuel Perez; Campoy, Antonio Martí; Martín, Juan José Serrano

2013-01-01

During the last two decades Red Palm Weevil (RPW, Rynchophorus Ferrugineus) has become one of the most dangerous threats to palm trees in many parts of the World. Its early detection is difficult, since palm trees do not show visual evidence of infection until it is too late for them to recover. For this reason the development of efficient early detection mechanisms is a critical element of RPW pest management systems. One of the early detection mechanisms proposed in the literature is based on acoustic monitoring, as the activity of RPW larvae inside the palm trunk is audible for human operators under acceptable environmental noise levels (rural areas, night periods, etc.). In this work we propose the design of an autonomous bioacoustic sensor that can be installed in every palm tree under study and is able to analyze the captured audio signal during large periods of time. The results of the audio analysis would be reported wirelessly to a control station, to be subsequently processed and conveniently stored. That control station is to be accessible via the Internet. It is programmed to send warning messages when predefined alarm thresholds are reached, thereby allowing supervisors to check on-line the status and evolution of the palm tree orchards. We have developed a bioacoustic sensor prototype and performed an extensive set of experiments to measure its detection capability, achieving average detection rates over 90%. PMID:23364196

Tsunami Early Warning Within Five Minutes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lomax, Anthony; Michelini, Alberto

2013-09-01

Tsunamis are most destructive at near to regional distances, arriving within 20-30 min after a causative earthquake; effective early warning at these distances requires notification within 15 min or less. The size and impact of a tsunami also depend on sea floor displacement, which is related to the length, L, width, W, mean slip, D, and depth, z, of the earthquake rupture. Currently, the primary seismic discriminant for tsunami potential is the centroid-moment tensor magnitude, M {w/CMT}, representing the product LWD and estimated via an indirect inversion procedure. However, the obtained M {w/CMT} and the implied LWD value vary with rupture depth, earth model, and other factors, and are only available 20-30 min or more after an earthquake. The use of more direct discriminants for tsunami potential could avoid these problems and aid in effective early warning, especially for near to regional distances. Previously, we presented a direct procedure for rapid assessment of earthquake tsunami potential using two, simple measurements on P-wave seismograms—the predominant period on velocity records, T d , and the likelihood, T {50/Ex}, that the high-frequency, apparent rupture-duration, T 0, exceeds 50-55 s. We have shown that T d and T 0 are related to the critical rupture parameters L, W, D, and z, and that either of the period-duration products T d T 0 or T d T {50/Ex} gives more information on tsunami impact and size than M {w/CMT}, M wp, and other currently used discriminants. These results imply that tsunami potential is not directly related to the product LWD from the "seismic" faulting model, as is assumed with the use of the M {w/CMT} discriminant. Instead, information on rupture length, L, and depth, z, as provided by T d T 0 or T d T {50/Ex}, can constrain well the tsunami potential of an earthquake. We introduce here special treatment of the signal around the S arrival at close stations, a modified, real-time, M wpd(RT) magnitude, and other procedures to enable early estimation of event parameters and tsunami discriminants. We show that with real-time data currently available in most regions of tsunami hazard, event locations, m b and M wp magnitudes, and the direct, period-duration discriminant, T d T {50/Ex} can be determined within 5 min after an earthquake occurs, and T 0, T d T 0, and M wpd(RT) within approximately 10 min. This processing is implemented and running continuously in real-time within the Early-est earthquake monitor at INGV-Rome (http://early-est.rm.ingv.it). We also show that the difference m b - log10( T d T 0) forms a rapid discriminant for slow, tsunami earthquakes. The rapid availability of these measurements can aid in faster and more reliable tsunami early warning for near to regional distances.

The Oliktok Point Arctic Research Facility (OPARF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zak, B. D.; Ivey, M.

2011-12-01

For the past year, the US Department of Energy, through Sandia National Laboratories, has operated a Designated User Facility at Oliktok Point Alaska, on the Arctic Ocean coast near the western end of the Prudhoe Bay oil fields. The primary purpose of this user facility is to accommodate and support manned and unmanned airborne measurement platforms over the Arctic Ocean and adjacent coastline as the arctic sea ice recedes. The speed at which the sea ice is receding exceeds model-projected speeds considerably for reasons that are not fully understood. The ultimate objective is to incorporate improved understanding of the radiative and other processes impacting sea ice recession into the relevant climate models. OPARF is based at a USAF Long Range Radar Station, an old Distant Early Warning (DEW) radar station built during the height of the Cold War, but continuing to be operated to track air traffic over the pole. The USAF has graciously granted Sandia and DOE use of selected facilities at Oliktok on a non-interference basis. DOE also maintains FAA-granted Restricted Airspace over Oliktok Point and adjacent ocean. In addition, DOE has also requested that the FAA establish a Warning Area over international waters 30 miles wide and 700 miles long stretching from near Oliktok towards the North Pole. That request is currently being processed by the FAA, with the public comment period now closed. This paper will update OPARF developments for potential users of the Oliktok user facility and other interested researchers.

Linking Research to Practice: FEWS NET and Its Use of Satellite Remote Sensing Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.; Brickley, Elizabeth B.

2011-01-01

The purpose of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is to collaborate with international, regional and national partners to provide timely and rigorous early warning and vulnerability information on emerging and evolving food security issues

A climate trend analysis of Senegal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Adoum, Alkhalil; Eilerts, Gary; Verdin, James; White, Libby

2012-01-01

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), identifies modest declines in rainfall, accompanied by increases in air temperatures. These analyses are based on quality-controlled station observations. Conclusions: * Summer rains have remained steady in Senegal over the past 20 years but are 15 percent below the 1920-1969 average. * Temperatures have increased by 0.9° Celsius since 1975, amplifying the effect of droughts. * Cereal yields are low but have been improving. * The amount of farmland per person is low and declining rapidly. * Current population and agriculture trends could lead to a 30-percent reduction in per capita cereal production by 2025.

A quasi-global precipitation time series for drought monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Chris C.; Peterson, Pete J.; Landsfeld, Martin F.; Pedreros, Diego H.; Verdin, James P.; Rowland, James D.; Romero, Bo E.; Husak, Gregory J.; Michaelsen, Joel C.; Verdin, Andrew P.

2014-01-01

Estimating precipitation variations in space and time is an important aspect of drought early warning and environmental monitoring. An evolving drier-than-normal season must be placed in historical context so that the severity of rainfall deficits may quickly be evaluated. To this end, scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, working closely with collaborators at the University of California, Santa Barbara Climate Hazards Group, have developed a quasi-global (50°S–50°N, 180°E–180°W), 0.05° resolution, 1981 to near-present gridded precipitation time series: the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data archive.

Tightly-coupled real-time analysis of GPS and accelerometer data for translational and rotational ground motions and application to earthquake and tsunami early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geng, J.; Bock, Y.; Melgar, D.; Hasse, J.; Crowell, B. W.

2013-12-01

High-rate GPS can play an important role in earthquake early warning (EEW) systems for large (>M6) events by providing permanent displacements immediately as they are achieved, to be used in source inversions that can be repeatedly updated as more information becomes available. This is most valuable to implement at a site very near the potential source rupture, where broadband seismometers are likely to clip, and accelerometer data cannot be objectively integrated to produce reliable displacements in real time. At present, more than 525 real-time GPS stations have been established in western North America, which are being integrated into EEW systems. Our analysis technique relies on a tightly-coupled combination of GPS and accelerometer data, an extension of precise point positioning with ambiguity resolution (PPP-AR). We operate a PPP service based on North American stations available through the IGS and UNAVCO/PBO. The service provides real-time satellite clock and fractional-cycle bias products that allow us to position individual client stations in the zone of deformation. The service reference stations are chosen to be further than 200 km from the primary zones of tectonic deformation in the western U.S. to avoid contamination of the satellite products during a large seismic event. At client stations, accelerometer data are applied as tight constraints on the positions between epochs in PPP-AR, which improves cycle-slip repair and rapid ambiguity resolution after GPS outages. Furthermore, we estimate site displacements, seismic velocities, and coseismic ground tilts to facilitate the analysis of ground motion characteristics and the inversion for source mechanisms. The seismogeodetic displacement and velocity waveforms preserves the detection of P wave arrivals, and provides P-wave arrival displacement that is key new information for EEW. Our innovative solution method for coseismic tilts mitigates an error source that has continually plagued strong motion data analysis, and has a resolution of about 0.01 degrees. At present, there are few collocations of GPS and accelerometers in western North America (the exception being the BARD network in northern California) so we have developed a cost-effective way to upgrade existing real-time GPS stations with low-cost MEMS accelerometers; fifteen PBO and SCIGN stations in southern California have already been upgraded. We demonstrate our method of recovering broadband displacement and tilt waveforms using 13 experiments from the single-axis George E. Brown Jr. Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation Large High-Performance Outdoor Shake Table at the University of California San Diego. Then we apply the method to data from the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake and the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake to illustrate the improvement over standard base-line correction acceleration techniques and to demonstrate the order of magnitude of tilt errors present in typical observations.

Volvo and Infiniti drivers' experiences with select crash avoidance technologies.

PubMed

Braitman, Keli A; McCartt, Anne T; Zuby, David S; Singer, Jeremiah

2010-06-01

Vehicle-based crash avoidance systems can potentially reduce crashes, but success depends on driver acceptance and understanding. This study gauged driver use, experience, and acceptance among early adopters of select technologies. Telephone interviews were conducted in early 2009 with 380 owners of Volvo vehicles equipped with forward collision warning with autobrake, lane departure warning, side-view assist, and/or active bi-xenon headlights and 485 owners of Infiniti vehicles with lane departure warning/prevention. Most owners kept systems turned on most of the time, especially forward collision warning with autobrake and side-view assist. The exception was lane departure prevention; many owners were unaware they had it, and the system must be activated each time the vehicle is started. Most owners reported being safer with the technologies and would want them again on their next vehicles. Perceived false or unnecessary warnings were fairly common, particularly with side-view assist. Some systems were annoying, especially lane departure warning. Many owners reported safer driving behaviors such as greater use of turn signals (lane departure warning), increased following distance (forward collision warning), and checking side mirrors more frequently (side-view assist), but some reported driving faster at night (active headlights). Despite some unnecessary or annoying warnings, most Volvo and Infiniti owners use crash avoidance systems most of the time. Among early adopters, the first requirement of effective warning systems (that owners use the technology) seems largely met. Systems requiring activation by drivers for each trip are used less often. Owner experience with the latest technologies from other automobile manufacturers should be studied, as well as for vehicles on which technologies are standard (versus optional) equipment. The effectiveness of technologies in preventing and mitigating crashes and injuries, and user acceptance of interfaces, should be examined as more vehicles with advanced technologies penetrate the fleet.

[Reliability and validity of warning signs checklist for screening psychological, behavioral and developmental problems of children].

PubMed

Huang, X N; Zhang, Y; Feng, W W; Wang, H S; Cao, B; Zhang, B; Yang, Y F; Wang, H M; Zheng, Y; Jin, X M; Jia, M X; Zou, X B; Zhao, C X; Robert, J; Jing, Jin

2017-06-02

Objective: To evaluate the reliability and validity of warning signs checklist developed by the National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People's Republic of China (NHFPC), so as to determine the screening effectiveness of warning signs on developmental problems of early childhood. Method: Stratified random sampling method was used to assess the reliability and validity of checklist of warning sign and 2 110 children 0 to 6 years of age(1 513 low-risk subjects and 597 high-risk subjects) were recruited from 11 provinces of China. The reliability evaluation for the warning signs included the test-retest reliability and interrater reliability. With the use of Age and Stage Questionnaire (ASQ) and Gesell Development Diagnosis Scale (GESELL) as the criterion scales, criterion validity was assessed by determining the correlation and consistency between the screening results of warning signs and the criterion scales. Result: In terms of the warning signs, the screening positive rates at different ages ranged from 10.8%(21/141) to 26.2%(51/137). The median (interquartile) testing time for each subject was 1(0.6) minute. Both the test-retest reliability and interrater reliability of warning signs reached 0.7 or above, indicating that the stability was good. In terms of validity assessment, there was remarkable consistency between ASQ and warning signs, with the Kappa value of 0.63. With the use of GESELL as criterion, it was determined that the sensitivity of warning signs in children with suspected developmental delay was 82.2%, and the specificity was 77.7%. The overall Youden index was 0.6. Conclusion: The reliability and validity of warning signs checklist for screening early childhood developmental problems have met the basic requirements of psychological screening scales, with the characteristics of short testing time and easy operation. Thus, this warning signs checklist can be used for screening psychological and behavioral problems of early childhood, especially in community settings.

Optical Embedded Dust Sensor for Engine Protection and Early Warning on M1 Abrams/Ground Combat Vehicles

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-04-11

warning of seal leakage or deterioration of air filters, thereby reducing engine damage and improving vehicle operational readiness. To be effective , the...for a comprehensive early warning and health management solution. To address the need for an effective dust detector for the AGT1500 engine and M1...an optical dust sensor for real-time continuous monitoring, and its effectiveness in quantitatively measuring dust penetration in the AGT1500 engine

[System construction of early warning for ecological security at cultural and natural heritage mixed sites and its application: a case study of Wuyishan Scenery District].

PubMed

You, Wei-Bin; He, Dong-Jin; Qin, De-Hua; Ji, Zhi-Rong; Wu, Li-Yun; Yu, Jian-An; Chen, Bing-Rong; Tan, Yong

2014-05-01

This paper proposed a new concept of ecological security for protection by a comprehensive analysis of the contents and standards of world heritage sites. A frame concept model named "Pressure-State-Control" for early warning of ecological security at world heritage mixed sites was constructed and evaluation indicators of this frame were also selected. Wuyishan Scenery District was chosen for a case study, which has been severely disturbed by natural and artificial factors. Based on the frame model of "Pressure-State-Control" and by employing extension analysis, the matter-element model was established to assess the ecological security status of this cultural and natural world heritage mixed site. The results showed that the accuracy of ecological security early warning reached 84%. Early warning rank was I level (no alert status) in 1997 and 2009, but that in 2009 had a higher possibility to convert into II level. Likewise, the early-warning indices of sensitive ranks were different between 1997 and 2009. Population density, population growth rate, area index for tea garden, cultivated land owned per capita, level of drought, and investment for ecological and environmental construction were the main limiting factors to hinder the development of ecological security from 2009 to future. In general, the status of Wuyishan Scenery District ecological security was relatively good and considered as no alert level, while risk conditions also existed in terms of a few early-warning indicators. We still need to pay more attention to serious alert indicators and adopt effective prevention and control measures to maintain a good ecological security status of this heritage site.

Refuting the ticagrelor-aspirin black box warning: and proposing a ticagrelor early-PCI black box warning.

PubMed

DiNicolantonio, James J; Serebruany, Victor L; Tomek, Ales

2013-10-03

Ticagrelor, a novel reversible antiplatelet agent, has a black box warning to avoid maintenance doses of aspirin>100mg. However, a significant ticagrelor-early percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) interaction exists. To discuss the inappropriateness of the black box warning for aspirin doses>100mg with ticagrelor and the appropriateness (and need) for a black box warning for ticagrelor patients needing early (within 24 hours of randomization) PCI. The FDA Complete Response Review for ticagrelor indicates that aspirin doses ≥ 300 mg/daily was not a significant interaction. In the ticagrelor-aspirin ≥ 300 mg cohort, all-cause mortality (through study end) and cardiovascular (CV) mortality (through study end) were not significantly increased (HR=1.27; 95% CI, 0.84-1.93, p=0.262 and HR=1.39; 95% CI:0.87-2.2, p=0.170), respectively. However, in patients treated with early (within 24 hours) PCI, ticagrelor significantly increased all-cause mortality (30 day: HR=1.89; 95% CI: 1.26-2.81, p=0.002, and through study end, HR=1.41; 95% CI,1.08-1.84, p=0.012) and increased CV mortality (30 day: HR=1.31; 95% CI: 0.97-1.77, p=0.075, and through study end, HR=1.35; 95% CI, 0.995-1.82, p=0.054) compared to clopidogrel. Early-PCI was more prevalent in the US versus outside-US regions (61% versus 49%). The black box warning for the use of maintenance aspirin doses over 100mg/daily with ticagrelor is inappropriate and ignores the more important, credible, and highly significant ticagrelor-early PCI adverse interaction in PLATO. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Small-scale (flash) flood early warning in the light of operational requirements: opportunities and limits with regard to user demands, driving data, and hydrologic modeling techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philipp, Andy; Kerl, Florian; Büttner, Uwe; Metzkes, Christine; Singer, Thomas; Wagner, Michael; Schütze, Niels

2016-05-01

In recent years, the Free State of Saxony (Eastern Germany) was repeatedly hit by both extensive riverine flooding, as well as flash flood events, emerging foremost from convective heavy rainfall. Especially after a couple of small-scale, yet disastrous events in 2010, preconditions, drivers, and methods for deriving flash flood related early warning products are investigated. This is to clarify the feasibility and the limits of envisaged early warning procedures for small catchments, hit by flashy heavy rain events. Early warning about potentially flash flood prone situations (i.e., with a suitable lead time with regard to required reaction-time needs of the stakeholders involved in flood risk management) needs to take into account not only hydrological, but also meteorological, as well as communication issues. Therefore, we propose a threefold methodology to identify potential benefits and limitations in a real-world warning/reaction context. First, the user demands (with respect to desired/required warning products, preparation times, etc.) are investigated. Second, focusing on small catchments of some hundred square kilometers, two quantitative precipitation forecasts are verified. Third, considering the user needs, as well as the input parameter uncertainty (i.e., foremost emerging from an uncertain QPF), a feasible, yet robust hydrological modeling approach is proposed on the basis of pilot studies, employing deterministic, data-driven, and simple scoring methods.

The reconnaissance and early-warning optical system design for dual field of space-based "solar blind ultraviolet"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wen-cong; Jin, Dong-dong; Shao, Fei; Hu, Hui-jun; Shi, Yu-feng; Song, Juan; Zhang, Yu-tu; Yong, Liu

2016-07-01

With the development of modern technology, especially the development of information technology at high speed, the ultraviolet early warning system plays an increasingly important role. In the modern warfare, how to detect the threats earlier, prevent and reduce the attack of precision-guided missile has become a new challenge. Because the ultraviolet warning technology has high environmental adaptability, the low false alarm rate, small volume and other advantages, in the military field applications it has been developed rapidly. According to current application demands for solar blind ultraviolet detection and warning, this paper proposes a reconnaissance and early-warning optical system, which covers solar blind ultraviolet (250nm-280nm) and dual field. This structure takes advantage of a narrow field of view and long focal length optical system to achieve the target object detection, uses wide-field and short focal length optical system to achieve early warning of the target object. It makes use of an ultraviolet beam-splitter to achieve the separation of two optical systems. According to the detector and the corresponding application needs of two visual field of the optical system, the calculation and optical system design were completed. After the design, the MTF of the two optical system is more than 0.8@39lp/mm. A single pixel energy concentration is greater than 80%.

Observed activation status of lane departure warning and forward collision warning of Honda vehicles at dealership service centers.

PubMed

Reagan, Ian J; McCartt, Anne T

2016-11-16

There are little objective data on whether drivers with lane departure warning and forward collision warning systems actually use them, but self-report data indicate that lane departure warning may be used less and viewed less favorably than forward collision warning. The current study assessed whether the systems were turned on when drivers brought their vehicles to dealership service stations and whether the observational protocol is a feasible method for collecting similar data on various manufacturers' systems. Observations of 2013-2015 Honda Accords, 2014-2015 Odysseys, and 2015 CR-Vs occurred at 2 U.S. Honda dealerships for approximately 4 weeks during Summer 2015. Of the 265 vehicles observed to have the 2 systems, 87 (32.8%) had lane departure warning turned on. Accords were associated with a 66% increase in the likelihood that lane departure warning was turned on compared with Odysseys, but the rate was still only about 40% in Accords. In contrast, forward collision warning was turned on in all but one of the observed vehicles. Observations found that the activation rate was much higher for forward collision warning than lane departure warning. The observation method worked well and appears feasible for extending to other manufacturers.

Determination of Magnitude and Location of Earthquakes With Only Five Seconds of a Three Component Broadband Sensor Signal Located Near Bogota, Colombia Using Support Vector Machines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ochoa Gutierrez, L. H.; Vargas Jiménez, C. A.; Niño Vasquez, L. F., Sr.

2017-12-01

Early warning generation for earthquakes that occur near the city of Bogotá-Colombia is extremely important. Using the information of a broadband and three component station, property of the Servicio Geológico Colombiano (SGC), called El Rosal, which is located very near the city, we developed a model based on support vector machines techniques (SVM), with a standardized polynomial kernel, using as descriptors or input data, seismic signal features, complemented by the hipocentral parameters calculated for each one of the reported events. The model was trained and evaluated by cross correlation and was used to predict, with only five seconds of signal, the magnitude and location of a seismic event. With the proposed model we calculated local magnitude with an accuracy of 0.19 units of magnitude, epicentral distance with an accuracy of about 11 k, depth with a precision of approximately 40 km and the azimuth of arrival with a precision of 45°. This research made a significant contribution for early warning generation for the country, in particular for the city of Bogotá. These models will be implemented in the future in the "Red Sismológica de la Sabana de Bogotá y sus Alrededores (RSSB)" which belongs to the Universidad Nacional de Colombia.

Volcano hazards assessment for the Lassen region, northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clynne, Michael A.; Robinson, Joel E.; Nathenson, Manuel; Muffler, L.J. Patrick

2012-01-01

The Lassen region of the southernmost Cascade Range is an active volcanic area. At least 70 eruptions have occurred in the past 100,000 years, including 3 in the past 1,000 years, most recently in 1915. The record of past eruptions and the present state of the underlying magmatic and hydrothermal systems make it clear that future eruptions within the Lassen Volcanic Center are very likely. Although the annual probability of an eruption is small, the consequences of some types of eruptions could be severe. Compared to those of a typical Cascade composite volcano, eruptive vents at Lassen Volcanic Center and the surrounding area are widely dispersed, extending in a zone about 50 km wide from the southern boundary of Lassen Volcanic National Park north to the Pit River. This report presents a discussion of volcanic and other geologic hazards in the Lassen area and delineates hazards zones for different types of volcanic activity. Owing to its presence in a national park with significant visitorship, its explosive behavior, and its proximity to regional infrastructure, the Lassen Volcanic Center has been designated a "high threat volcano" in the U.S. Geological Survey National Volcano Early Warning System assessment. Volcanic eruptions are typically preceded by seismic activity and ground deformation, and the Lassen area has a network of seismometers and Global Positioning System stations in place to monitor for early warning of volcanic activity.

7 Warning Signs of Alzheimer's | Alzheimer's disease | NIH MedlinePlus the Magazine

MedlinePlus

... please turn Javascript on. Feature: Alzheimer's Disease 7 Warning Signs of Alzheimer's Past Issues / Fall 2010 Table ... is to alert the public to the early warning signs of Alzheimer's disease. If someone has several ...

Educator Evaluation and the Use of the Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS). Updated September 9, 2013

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2013

2013-01-01

The Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education first released the Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS) data for grades 1-12 in the 2012-13 school year. The Department created the EWIS in direct response to educators' requests for early indicator data across multiple grade levels. The EWIS is a "tool to systematically…

Theory and Application of Early Warning Systems for High School and Beyond

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carl, Bradley; Richardson, Jed T.; Cheng, Emily; Kim, HeeJin; Meyer, Robert H.

2013-01-01

This article describes the development of early warning indicators for high school and beyond in the Milwaukee Public Schools (MPS) by the Value-Added Research Center (VARC) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, working in conjunction with staff from the Division of Research and Evaluation at MPS. Our work in MPS builds on prior early warning…

ON-LINE TOXICITY MONITORS AND WATERSHED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

A Water Quality Early Warning System using On-line Toxicity Monitors (OTMs) has been deployed in the East Fork of the Little Miami River, Clermont County, OH. Living organisms have long been used to determine the toxicity of environmental samples. With advancements in electronic ...

IG Statement: Arthur A. Elkins, Jr., on OIG report Early Warning Report: Main EPA Headquarters Warehouse in Landover, Maryland, Requires Immediate EPA Attention

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Statement of Inspector General Arthur A. Elkins, Jr., on the Office of Inspector General (OIG) report Early Warning Report: Main EPA Headquarters Warehouse in Landover, Maryland, Requires Immediate EPA Attention.

Including trait-based early warning signals helps predict population collapse

PubMed Central

Clements, Christopher F.; Ozgul, Arpat

2016-01-01

Foreseeing population collapse is an on-going target in ecology, and this has led to the development of early warning signals based on expected changes in leading indicators before a bifurcation. Such signals have been sought for in abundance time-series data on a population of interest, with varying degrees of success. Here we move beyond these established methods by including parallel time-series data of abundance and fitness-related trait dynamics. Using data from a microcosm experiment, we show that including information on the dynamics of phenotypic traits such as body size into composite early warning indices can produce more accurate inferences of whether a population is approaching a critical transition than using abundance time-series alone. By including fitness-related trait information alongside traditional abundance-based early warning signals in a single metric of risk, our generalizable approach provides a powerful new way to assess what populations may be on the verge of collapse. PMID:27009968

A vantage from space can detect earlier drought onset: an approach using relative humidity.

PubMed

Farahmand, Alireza; AghaKouchak, Amir; Teixeira, Joao

2015-02-25

Each year, droughts cause significant economic and agricultural losses across the world. The early warning and onset detection of drought is of particular importance for effective agriculture and water resource management. Previous studies show that the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), a measure of precipitation deficit, detects drought onset earlier than other indicators. Here we show that satellite-based near surface air relative humidity data can further improve drought onset detection and early warning. This paper introduces the Standardized Relative Humidity Index (SRHI) based on the NASA Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations. The results indicate that the SRHI typically detects the drought onset earlier than the SPI. While the AIRS mission was not originally designed for drought monitoring, we show that its relative humidity data offers a new and unique avenue for drought monitoring and early warning. We conclude that the early warning aspects of SRHI may have merit for integration into current drought monitoring systems.

[Early warning on measles through the neural networks].

PubMed

Yu, Bin; Ding, Chun; Wei, Shan-bo; Chen, Bang-hua; Liu, Pu-lin; Luo, Tong-yong; Wang, Jia-gang; Pan, Zhi-wei; Lu, Jun-an

2011-01-01

To discuss the effects on early warning of measles, using the neural networks. Based on the available data through monthly and weekly reports on measles from January 1986 to August 2006 in Wuhan city. The modal was developed using the neural networks to predict and analyze the prevalence and incidence of measles. When the dynamic time series modal was established with back propagation (BP) networks consisting of two layers, if p was assigned as 9, the convergence speed was acceptable and the correlation coefficient was equal to 0.85. It was more acceptable for monthly forecasting the specific value, but better for weekly forecasting the classification under probabilistic neural networks (PNN). When data was big enough to serve the purpose, it seemed more feasible for early warning using the two-layer BP networks. However, when data was not enough, then PNN could be used for the purpose of prediction. This method seemed feasible to be used in the system for early warning.

A Vantage from Space Can Detect Earlier Drought Onset: An Approach Using Relative Humidity

PubMed Central

Farahmand, Alireza; AghaKouchak, Amir; Teixeira, Joao

2015-01-01

Each year, droughts cause significant economic and agricultural losses across the world. The early warning and onset detection of drought is of particular importance for effective agriculture and water resource management. Previous studies show that the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), a measure of precipitation deficit, detects drought onset earlier than other indicators. Here we show that satellite-based near surface air relative humidity data can further improve drought onset detection and early warning. This paper introduces the Standardized Relative Humidity Index (SRHI) based on the NASA Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations. The results indicate that the SRHI typically detects the drought onset earlier than the SPI. While the AIRS mission was not originally designed for drought monitoring, we show that its relative humidity data offers a new and unique avenue for drought monitoring and early warning. We conclude that the early warning aspects of SRHI may have merit for integration into current drought monitoring systems. PMID:25711500

Early warning indicators for monitoring the process failure of anaerobic digestion system of food waste.

PubMed

Li, Lei; He, Qingming; Wei, Yunmei; He, Qin; Peng, Xuya

2014-11-01

To determine reliable state parameters which could be used as early warning indicators of process failure due to the acidification of anaerobic digestion of food waste, three mesophilic anaerobic digesters of food waste with different operation conditions were investigated. Such parameters as gas production, methane content, pH, concentrations of volatile fatty acid (VFA), alkalinity and their combined indicators were evaluated. Results revealed that operation conditions significantly affect the responses of parameters and thus the optimal early warning indicators of each reactor differ from each other. None of the single indicators was universally valid for all the systems. The universally valid indicators should combine several parameters to supply complementary information. A combination of total VFA, the ratio of VFA to total alkalinity (VFA/TA) and the ratio of bicarbonate alkalinity to total alkalinity (BA/TA) can reflect the metabolism of the digesting system and realize rapid and effective early warning. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in Rural Africa using the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A.

2010-12-01

Early warnings of malaria transmission allow health officials to better prepare for future epidemics. Monitoring rainfall is recognized as an important part of malaria early warning systems, as outlined by the Roll Back Malaria Initiative. The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model that relates rainfall to malaria transmission, and could be used to provide early warnings of malaria epidemics. HYDREMATS is used to make predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity for 2005, 2006, and 2007 in Banizoumbou village in western Niger. HYDREMATS is forced by observed rainfall, followed by a rainfall prediction based on the seasonal mean rainfall for a period two or four weeks into the future. Predictions made using this method provided reasonable estimates of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, two to four weeks in advance. The predictions were significantly improved compared to those made when HYDREMATS was forced with seasonal mean rainfall alone.

Suitability of Open-Ocean Instrumentation for Use in Near-Field Tsunami Early Warning Along Seismically Active Subduction Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williamson, Amy L.; Newman, Andrew V.

2018-05-01

Over the past decade, the number of open-ocean gauges capable of parsing information about a passing tsunami has steadily increased, particularly through national cable networks and international buoyed efforts such as the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART). This information is analyzed to disseminate tsunami warnings to affected regions. However, most current warnings that incorporate tsunami are directed at mid- and far-field localities. In this study, we analyze the region surrounding four seismically active subduction zones, Cascadia, Japan, Chile, and Java, for their potential to facilitate local tsunami early warning using such systems. We assess which locations currently have instrumentation in the right locations for direct tsunami observations with enough time to provide useful warning to the nearest affected coastline—and which are poorly suited for such systems. Our primary findings are that while some regions are ill-suited for this type of early warning, such as the coastlines of Chile, other localities, like Java, Indonesia, could incorporate direct tsunami observations into their hazard forecasts with enough lead time to be effective for coastal community emergency response. We take into account the effect of tsunami propagation with regard to shallow bathymetry on the fore-arc as well as the effect of earthquake source placement. While it is impossible to account for every type of off-shore tsunamigenic event in these locales, this study aims to characterize a typical large tsunamigenic event occurring in the shallow part of the megathrust as a guide in what is feasible with early tsunami warning.

Modelling the future Israel EEWS performance using synthetic catalogue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinsky, V.

2017-10-01

In 2012 June, Israel government decided about building an Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) in the country. The network configuration suggested was to be a staggered line of ˜100 stations along the regional main faults: Dead Sea fault and Carmel fault and additional ˜22 stations spread over the country. The EEWS alarm system should have to utilize two approaches: the P-wave-based algorithm combined with the S-threshold method. The former utilizes first wave arrivals to several closest stations for prompt location and the three initial seconds of the waveform data for magnitude estimation. The latter issues alarm when the surface shaking (velocity or acceleration) exceeds the relatively high threshold corresponding to a magnitude 5 earthquake at a short distance of about 10 km at least for the two neighbouring stations. For each of the approaches and for a reasonable combination of them, we simulate the EEWS performance based on a synthetic catalogue. The input seismicity parameters for the processing are extracted from the real instrumental catalogue. Using a general ground-motion prediction equations for peak ground accelaration, τc and Pd we then evaluate how false and missed alarm rates depend on the corresponding thresholds. Practically, in turn, these dependencies approve choosing initial thresholds for the EEWS providing suitable false and missed alarms rates.

Food Security, Decision Making and the Use of Remote Sensing in Famine Early Warning Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.

2008-01-01

Famine early warning systems use remote sensing in combination with socio-economic and household food economy analysis to provide timely and rigorous information on emerging food security crises. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is the US Agency for International Development's decision support system in 20 African countries, as well as in Guatemala, Haiti and Afghanistan. FEWS NET provides early and actionable policy guidance for the US Government and its humanitarian aid partners. As we move into an era of climate change where weather hazards will become more frequent and severe, understanding how to provide quantitative and actionable scientific information for policy makers using biophysical data is critical for an appropriate and effective response.

a Process-Based Drought Early Warning Indicator for Supporting State Drought Mitigation Decision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, R.; Fernando, D. N.; Pu, B.

2014-12-01

Drought prone states such as Texas requires creditable and actionable drought early warning ranging from seasonal to multi-decadal scales. Such information cannot be simply extracted from the available climate prediction and projections because of their large uncertainties at regional scales and unclear connections to the needs of the decision makers. In particular, current dynamic seasonal predictions and climate projections, such as those produced by the NOAA national multi-models ensemble experiment (NMME) and the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) models, are much more reliable for winter and spring than for the summer season for the US Southern Plains. They also show little connection between the droughts in winter/spring and those in summer, in contrast to the observed dry memory from spring to summer over that region. To mitigate the weakness of dynamic prediction/projections, we have identified three key processes behind the spring-to-summer dry memory through observational studies. Based on these key processes and related fields, we have developed a multivariate principle component statistical model to provide a probabilistic summer drought early warning indicator, using the observed or predicted climate conditions in winter and spring on seasonal scale and climate projection for the mid-21stcentury. The summer drought early warning indicator is constructed in a similar way to the NOAA probabilistic predictions that are familiar to water resource managers. The indicator skill is assessed using the standard NOAA climate prediction assessment tools, i.e., the two alternative forced choice (2AFC) and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC). Comparison with long-term observations suggest that this summer drought early warning indicator is able to capture nearly all the strong summer droughts and outperform the dynamic prediction in this regard over the US Southern Plains. This early warning indicator has been used by the state water agency in May 2014 in briefing the state drought preparedness council and will be provided to stake holders through the website of the Texas state water planning agency. We will also present the results of our ongoing work on using NASA satellite based soil moisture and vegetation stress measurements to further improve the reliability of the summer drought early warning indicator.

Sepsis in Obstetrics: Clinical Features and Early Warning Tools.

PubMed

Parfitt, Sheryl E; Bogat, Mary L; Hering, Sandra L; Ottley, Charlotte; Roth, Cheryl

Morbidity and mortality associated with sepsis has gained widespread attention on a local, state, and national level, yet, it remains a complicated disorder that can be difficult to identify in a timely manner. Sepsis in obstetric patients further complicates the diagnosis as alterations in physiology related to pregnancy can mask sepsis indicators normally seen in the general population. If early signs of sepsis go unrecognized, septic shock can develop, leading to organ dysfunction and potential death. Maternal early warning tools have been designed to assist clinicians in recognizing early indications of illness. Through use of clinical pathway-specific tools, disease processes may be detected early, subsequently benefitting patients with aggressive treatment management and intervention.This article is the second in a series of three that discuss the importance of sepsis and septic shock in pregnancy. Risk factors, causes of sepsis, signs and symptoms, and maternal early warning tools are discussed.

Research on intelligent scenic security early warning platform based on high resolution image: real scene linkage and real-time LBS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Baishou; Huang, Yu; Lan, Guangquan; Li, Tingting; Lu, Ting; Yao, Mingxing; Luo, Yuandan; Li, Boxiang; Qian, Yongyou; Gao, Yujiu

2015-12-01

This paper design and implement security monitor system within a scenic spot for tourists, the scenic spot staff can be automatic real time for visitors to perception and monitoring, and visitors can also know about themselves location in the scenic, real-time and obtain the 3D imaging conditions of scenic area. Through early warning can realize "parent-child relation", preventing the old man and child lost and wandering. Research results to the further development of virtual reality to provide effective security early warning platform of the theoretical basis and practical reference.

Magnitude Estimation for Large Earthquakes from Borehole Recordings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eshaghi, A.; Tiampo, K. F.; Ghofrani, H.; Atkinson, G.

2012-12-01

We present a simple and fast method for magnitude determination technique for earthquake and tsunami early warning systems based on strong ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in Japan. This method incorporates borehole strong motion records provided by the Kiban Kyoshin network (KiK-net) stations. We analyzed strong ground motion data from large magnitude earthquakes (5.0 ≤ M ≤ 8.1) with focal depths < 50 km and epicentral distances of up to 400 km from 1996 to 2010. Using both peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) we derived GMPEs in Japan. These GMPEs are used as the basis for regional magnitude determination. Predicted magnitudes from PGA values (Mpga) and predicted magnitudes from PGV values (Mpgv) were defined. Mpga and Mpgv strongly correlate with the moment magnitude of the event, provided sufficient records for each event are available. The results show that Mpgv has a smaller standard deviation in comparison to Mpga when compared with the estimated magnitudes and provides a more accurate early assessment of earthquake magnitude. We test this new method to estimate the magnitude of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and we present the results of this estimation. PGA and PGV from borehole recordings allow us to estimate the magnitude of this event 156 s and 105 s after the earthquake onset, respectively. We demonstrate that the incorporation of borehole strong ground-motion records immediately available after the occurrence of large earthquakes significantly increases the accuracy of earthquake magnitude estimation and the associated improvement in earthquake and tsunami early warning systems performance. Moment magnitude versus predicted magnitude (Mpga and Mpgv).

Evaluation of the real-time earthquake information system in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, Hiromitsu; Horiuchi, Shigeki; Wu, Changjiang; Yamamoto, Shunroku; Rydelek, Paul A.

2009-01-01

The real-time earthquake information system (REIS) of the Japanese seismic network is developed for automatically determining earthquake parameters within a few seconds after the P-waves arrive at the closest stations using both the P-wave arrival times and the timing data that P-waves have not yet arrived at other stations. REIS results play a fundamental role in the real-time information for earthquake early warning in Japan. We show the rapidity and accuracy of REIS from the analysis of 4,050 earthquakes in three years since 2005; 44 percent of the first reports are issued within 5 seconds after the first P-wave arrival and 80 percent of the events have a difference in epicenter distance less than 20 km relative to manually determined locations. We compared the formal catalog to the estimated magnitude from the real-time analysis and found that 94 percent of the events had a magnitude difference of +/-1.0 unit.

Data Latency Characteristics Observed Through Diverse Communication Links by the EarthScope USArray Transportable Array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vernon, F. L.; Eakins, J. A.; Busby, R.

2008-12-01

The USArray Transportable Array has deployed over 600 stations in aggregate over the past four years. All stations communicate in near-real time using ip protocols over a variety of communication links including satellite, cell phone, and DSL. Several different communication providers have been used for each type of communication links. In addition, data are being acquired from several regional networks either directly from a data server or after passing through the IRIS DMC BUD system. We will present results about the latency of data arriving at the UCSD Array Network Facility where the real time data are acquired. Under normal operating conditions the median data latency is several seconds. We will also examine the data return rates through the near-real time systems. In addition we will examine the statistics of over 36,000 events which have automatic event locations and associations. We evaluate the timeliness of these results in the context of seismic early warning systems.

The role of Environmental Health System air quality monitors in Space Station Contingency Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Limero, Thomas F.; Wilson, Steve; Perlot, Susan; James, John

1992-01-01

This paper describes the Space Station Freedom (SSF) Environmental Health System's air-quality monitoring strategy and instrumentation. A two-tier system has been developed, consisting of first-alert instruments that warn the crew of airborne contamination and a volatile organic analyzer that can identify volatile organic contaminants in near-real time. The strategy for air quality monitoring on SSF is designed to provide early detection so that the contamination can be confined to one module and so that crew health and safety can be protected throughout the contingency event. The use of air-quality monitors in fixed and portable modes will be presented as a means of following the progress of decontamination efforts and ensuring acceptable air quality in a module after an incident. The technology of each instrument will be reviewed briefly; the main focus of this paper, however, will be the use of air-quality monitors before, during, and after contingency incidents.

Cytokine Responses in Gills of Capoeta umbla as Biomarkers of Environmental Pollution.

PubMed

Danabas, Durali; Yildirim, Nuran Cikcikoglu; Yildirim, Numan; Onal, Ayten Oztufekci; Uslu, Gulsad; Unlu, Erhan; Danabas, Seval; Ergin, Cemil; Tayhan, Nilgun

2016-03-01

Immunological biomarkers reflect the effects of exposure to environmental contaminants. In this study, the suitability and sensitivity of cytokine responses, interleukin1β (IL-1β), interleukin-6 (IL-6), tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) in gill tissues of Capoeta umbla (Heckel, 1843), collected from different regions, as early warning indices of environmental pollution and ecosystem health was evaluated. Fish and water samples were taken from ten stations in March and September 2011 and 2012. Tumor necrosis factor-α, IL-1β and IL-6 levels were determined in samples of the gill tissues by using an ELISA kit. Significant variations of TNF-α, IL-1β and IL-6 levels observed between stations and seasons. The results of this study show that seasonal variations of cytokine responses in gills of Capoeta umbla are sensitive to the contaminants present in Uzuncayir Dam Lake (Tunceli, Turkey) water and are valuable biomarkers for environmental pollution and ecosystem health.

UNAVCO GPS High-Rate and Real-Time Products and Services: Building a next generation geodetic network.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mencin, David; Meertens, Charles; Mattioli, Glen; Feaux, Karl; Looney, Sara; Sievers, Charles; Austin, Ken

2013-04-01

Recent advances in GPS technology and data processing are providing position estimates with centimeter-level precision at high-rate (1-5 Hz) and low latency (<1 s). Broad community interest in these data is growing rapidly because these data will have the potential to improve our understanding in diverse areas of geophysics including properties of seismic, volcanic, magmatic and tsunami deformation sources, and moreover profoundly transforming rapid event characterization, early warning, as well as hazard mitigation and response. Other scientific and operational applications for high-rate GPS also include glacier and ice sheet motions, tropospheric modeling, and better constraints on the dynamics of space weather. UNAVCO, through community input and the recent Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) NSF-ARRA Cascadia initiative, has nearly completed the process of upgrading a total of 373 PBO GPS sites to real-time high-rate capability and these streams are now being archived in the UNAVCO data center. Further, through the UNAVCO core proposal (GAGE), currently under review at NSF, UNAVCO has proposed upgrading a significant portion of the ~1100 GPS stations that PBO currently operates to real-time high-rate capability to address community science and operational needs. In addition, in collaboration with NOAA, 74 of these stations will provide meteorological data in real-time, primarily to support watershed and flood analyses for regional early-warning systems related to NOAA's work with California Department of Water Resources. In preparation for this increased emphasis on high-rate GPS data, UNAVCO hosted an NSF funded workshop in Boulder, CO on March 26-28, 2012, which brought together 70 participants representing a spectrum of research fields with a goal to develop a community plan for the use of real-time GPS data products within the UNAVCO and EarthScope communities. These data products are expected to improve and expand the use of real-time, high-rate GPS data over the next decade.

Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boulton, Chris A.; Allison, Lesley C.; Lenton, Timothy M.

2014-12-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached.

Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model

PubMed Central

Boulton, Chris A.; Allison, Lesley C.; Lenton, Timothy M.

2014-01-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached. PMID:25482065

Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model.

PubMed

Boulton, Chris A; Allison, Lesley C; Lenton, Timothy M

2014-12-08

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached.

Implementing an Inpatient Social Early Warning System for Child Maltreatment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Atabaki, Armita; Heddaeus, Daniela; Metzner, Franka; Schulz, Holger; Siefert, Sonke; Pawils, Silke

2013-01-01

Objectives: The current article describes the process evaluation of a social early warning system (SEWS) for the prevention of child maltreatment in the federal state of Hamburg. This prevention initiative targets expectant mothers and their partners including an initial screening of risk factors for child maltreatment, a subsequent structured…

PROPOSED WATER QUALITY SURVEILLANCE NETWORK USING PHYSICAL, CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS (CBEWS)

EPA Science Inventory

The Homeland Protection Act of 2002 specifically calls for the investigation and use of Early Warning Systems (EWS) for water security reasons. The EWS is a screening tool for detecting changes in source water and distribution system water quality. A suite of time-relevant biol...

PROPOSED WATER QUALITY SURVEILLANCE NETWORK USING PHYSICAL, CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS (BEWS)

EPA Science Inventory

The Homeland Protection Act of 2002 specifically calls for the investigation and use of Early Warning Systems (EWS) for water security reasons. The EWS is a screening tool for detecting changes in source water and distribution system water quality. A suite of time-relevant biol...

Improving Early Warning Systems with Categorized Course Resource Usage

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Waddington, R. Joseph; Nam, SungJin; Lonn, Steven; Teasley, Stephanie D.

2016-01-01

Early Warning Systems (EWSs) aggregate multiple sources of data to provide timely information to stakeholders about students in need of academic support. There is an increasing need to incorporate relevant data about student behaviors into the algorithms underlying EWSs to improve predictors of students' success or failure. Many EWSs currently…

78 FR 68831 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Submission to the Office of Management and Budget for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-15

... Early Warning and Intervention Monitoring System AGENCY: Institute of Education Sciences/National Center... Intervention Monitoring System. OMB Control Number: 1850-NEW. Type of Review: New collection. Respondents... planning a two-part evaluation of the Early Warning and Intervention Monitoring System (EWIMS), consisting...

78 FR 48863 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Comment Request; Evaluation of the Early Warning and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-12

... DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION [Docket No.: ED-2013-ICCD-0106] Agency Information Collection Activities; Comment Request; Evaluation of the Early Warning and Intervention Monitoring System AGENCY: Institute of... Intervention Monitoring System. OMB Control Number: 1850-NEW. Type of Review: A new information collection...

The International Platform on Earthquake Early Warning Systems (IP-EEWS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres, Jair; Fanchiotti, Margherita

2017-04-01

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 recognizes the need to "substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and assessments to the people by 2030" as one of its global targets (target "g"). While considerable progress has been made in recent decades, early warning systems (EWSs) continue to be less developed for geo-hazards and significant challenges remain in advancing the development of EWSs for specific hazards, particularly for fastest onset hazards such as earthquakes. An earthquake early warning system (EEWS) helps in disseminating timely information about potentially catastrophic earthquake hazards to the public, emergency managers and the private sector to provide enough time to implement automatized emergency measures. At the same time, these systems help to reduce considerably the CO2 emissions produced by the catastrophic impacts and subsequent effects of earthquakes, such as those generated by fires, collapses, and pollution (among others), as well as those produced in the recovery and reconstruction processes. In recent years, EEWSs have been developed independently in few countries: EEWSs have shown operational in Japan and Mexico, while other regions in California (USA), Turkey, Italy, Canada, South Korea and China (including Taiwan) are in the development stages or under restricted applications. Many other countries in the Indian Subcontinent, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, Eastern Africa, Southeast Africa, as well as Central America, South America and the Caribbean, are located in some of the most seismically active regions in the world, or present moderate seismicity but high vulnerability, and would strongly benefit from the development of EEWSs. Given that, in many instances, the development of an EEWS still requires further testing, increased density coverage in seismic observation stations, regional coordination, and further scientific understanding, there is a strong need to enhance the technical and operational capacities required for these systems and to further understand the implications for policy. In an effort to address this gap, in December 2015, UNESCO launched the International Platform on Earthquake Early Warning Systems (IP-EEWS). The main objective of the Platform is to assess the current state of the art in the development and operationalisation of EEWS globally, foster dialogue and international cooperation for capacity building around these systems, and therefore promote and strengthen EEWS in earthquake-prone countries worldwide. This paper will discuss the opportunities and challenges for the development and operationalisation of these systems, as well as the specific aim, objectives and expected contributions of this newly established Platform. The following ten countries are already represented in IP-EEWS through leading scientific experts in top institutions: USA (University of California Berkeley), Japan (Meteorological Research Institute), Mexico (Centro de Instrumentacion y Registro Sismico), Italy (University of Naples Federico II), Switzerland (ETH - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich), Spain (Universidad Complutense de Madrid), Turkey (Kandili Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Boǧaziçi University), Germany (GFZ - German Research Centre for Geosciences), China (University of Beijing), and Romania (National Institute for Earth Physics). More countries are expected to join the initiative.

Real-time earthquake data feasible

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bush, Susan

Scientists agree that early warning devices and monitoring of both Hurricane Hugo and the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic eruption saved thousands of lives. What would it take to develop this sort of early warning and monitoring system for earthquake activity?Not all that much, claims a panel assigned to study the feasibility, costs, and technology needed to establish a real-time earthquake monitoring (RTEM) system. The panel, drafted by the National Academy of Science's Committee on Seismology, has presented its findings in Real-Time Earthquake Monitoring. The recently released report states that “present technology is entirely capable of recording and processing data so as to provide real-time information, enabling people to mitigate somewhat the earthquake disaster.” RTEM systems would consist of two parts—an early warning system that would give a few seconds warning before severe shaking, and immediate postquake information within minutes of the quake that would give actual measurements of the magnitude. At this time, however, this type of warning system has not been addressed at the national level for the United States and is not included in the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program, according to the report.

Rapid Earthquake Magnitude Estimation for Early Warning Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, Dara; Bock, Yehuda; Melgar, Diego

2017-04-01

Earthquake magnitude is a concise metric that provides invaluable information about the destructive potential of a seismic event. Rapid estimation of magnitude for earthquake and tsunami early warning purposes requires reliance on near-field instrumentation. For large magnitude events, ground motions can exceed the dynamic range of near-field broadband seismic instrumentation (clipping). Strong motion accelerometers are designed with low gains to better capture strong shaking. Estimating earthquake magnitude rapidly from near-source strong-motion data requires integration of acceleration waveforms to displacement. However, integration amplifies small errors, creating unphysical drift that must be eliminated with a high pass filter. The loss of the long period information due to filtering is an impediment to magnitude estimation in real-time; the relation between ground motion measured with strong-motion instrumentation and magnitude saturates, leading to underestimation of earthquake magnitude. Using station displacements from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations, we can supplement the high frequency information recorded by traditional seismic systems with long-period observations to better inform rapid response. Unlike seismic-only instrumentation, ground motions measured with GNSS scale with magnitude without saturation [Crowell et al., 2013; Melgar et al., 2015]. We refine the current magnitude scaling relations using peak ground displacement (PGD) by adding a large GNSS dataset of earthquakes in Japan. Because it does not suffer from saturation, GNSS alone has significant advantages over seismic-only instrumentation for rapid magnitude estimation of large events. The earthquake's magnitude can be estimated within 2-3 minutes of earthquake onset time [Melgar et al., 2013]. We demonstrate that seismogeodesy, the optimal combination of GNSS and seismic data at collocated stations, provides the added benefit of improving the sensitivity of displacement time series compared to GNSS alone. This not only means that ground motion can be detected at farther stations, but also that smaller seismic arrivals (i.e. P-waves) become visible in the displacement time series. P-wave amplitude (Pd) has been examined as an early indicator of earthquake magnitude. Relations between Pd and magnitude using seismic-only instrumentation appear to suffer from saturation, while the combination of GNSS and seismic data has been demonstrated to eliminate saturation [Meier et al., 2016, Crowell et al., 2013]. We create seismogeodetic displacements by combining the GNSS dataset with Japanese KiK-net and K-net accelerometer data to explore the potential of seismogeodesy for magnitude scaling with several seconds of data using P-wave amplitude.

TIDE TOOL: Open-Source Sea-Level Monitoring Software for Tsunami Warning Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weinstein, S. A.; Kong, L. S.; Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.

2012-12-01

A tsunami warning center (TWC) typically decides to issue a tsunami warning bulletin when initial estimates of earthquake source parameters suggest it may be capable of generating a tsunami. A TWC, however, relies on sea-level data to provide prima facie evidence for the existence or non-existence of destructive tsunami waves and to constrain tsunami wave height forecast models. In the aftermath of the 2004 Sumatra disaster, the International Tsunami Information Center asked the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) to develop a platform-independent, easy-to-use software package to give nascent TWCs the ability to process WMO Global Telecommunications System (GTS) sea-level messages and to analyze the resulting sea-level curves (marigrams). In response PTWC developed TIDE TOOL that has since steadily grown in sophistication to become PTWC's operational sea-level processing system. TIDE TOOL has two main parts: a decoder that reads GTS sea-level message logs, and a graphical user interface (GUI) written in the open-source platform-independent graphical toolkit scripting language Tcl/Tk. This GUI consists of dynamic map-based clients that allow the user to select and analyze a single station or groups of stations by displaying their marigams in strip-chart or screen-tiled forms. TIDE TOOL also includes detail maps of each station to show each station's geographical context and reverse tsunami travel time contours to each station. TIDE TOOL can also be coupled to the GEOWARE™ TTT program to plot tsunami travel times and to indicate the expected tsunami arrival time on the marigrams. Because sea-level messages are structured in a rich variety of formats TIDE TOOL includes a metadata file, COMP_META, that contains all of the information needed by TIDE TOOL to decode sea-level data as well as basic information such as the geographical coordinates of each station. TIDE TOOL can therefore continuously decode theses sea-level messages in real-time and display the time-series data in the GUI as well. This GUI also includes mouse-clickable functions such as zooming or expanding the time-series display, measuring tsunami signal characteristics (arrival time, wave period and amplitude, etc.), and removing the tide signal from the time-series data. De-tiding of the time series is necessary to obtain accurate measurements of tsunami wave parameters and to maintain accurate historical tsunami databases. With TIDE TOOL, de-tiding is accomplished with a set of tide harmonic coefficients routinely computed and updated at PTWC for many of the stations in PTWC's inventory (~570). PTWC also uses the decoded time series files (previous 3-5 days' worth) to compute on-the-fly tide coefficients. The latter is useful in cases where the station is new and a long-term stable set of tide coefficients are not available or cannot be easily obtained due to various non-astronomical effects. The international tsunami warning system is coordinated globally by the UNESCO IOC, and a number of countries in the Pacific and Indian Ocean, and Caribbean depend on Tide Tool to monitor tsunamis in real time.

Widespread local chronic stressors in Caribbean coastal habitats

PubMed Central

Collin, Rachel; Bastidas, Carolina; Cróquer, Aldo; Gayle, Peter M. H.; Jordán-Dahlgren, Eric; Koltes, Karen; Oxenford, Hazel; Rodriguez-Ramirez, Alberto; Weil, Ernesto; Alemu, Jahson; Bone, David; Buchan, Kenneth C.; Creary Ford, Marcia; Escalante-Mancera, Edgar; Garzón-Ferreira, Jaime; Guzmán, Hector M.; Kjerfve, Björn; Klein, Eduardo; McCoy, Croy; Potts, Arthur C.; Ruíz-Rentería, Francisco; Smith, Struan R.; Tschirky, John; Cortés, Jorge

2017-01-01

Coastal ecosystems and the livelihoods they support are threatened by stressors acting at global and local scales. Here we used the data produced by the Caribbean Coastal Marine Productivity program (CARICOMP), the longest, largest monitoring program in the wider Caribbean, to evidence local-scale (decreases in water quality) and global-scale (increases in temperature) stressors across the basin. Trend analyses showed that visibility decreased at 42% of the stations, indicating that local-scale chronic stressors are widespread. On the other hand, only 18% of the stations showed increases in water temperature that would be expected from global warming, partially reflecting the limits in detecting trends due to inherent natural variability of temperature data. Decreases in visibility were associated with increased human density. However, this link can be decoupled by environmental factors, with conditions that increase the flush of water, dampening the effects of human influence. Besides documenting environmental stressors throughout the basin, our results can be used to inform future monitoring programs, if the desire is to identify stations that provide early warning signals of anthropogenic impacts. All CARICOMP environmental data are now available, providing an invaluable baseline that can be used to strengthen research, conservation, and management of coastal ecosystems in the Caribbean basin. PMID:29261694

Pi-EEWS: a low cost prototype for on-site earthquake early warning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pazos, Antonio; Vera, Angel; Morgado, Arturo; Rioja, Carlos; Davila, Jose Martin; Cabieces, Roberto

2017-04-01

The Royal Spanish Navy Observatory (ROA), with the participation of the Cadiz University (UCA), have been developed the ALERTES-SC3 EEWS (regional approach) based on the SeisComP3 software package. This development has been done in the frame of the Spanish ALERT-ES (2011-2013) and ALERTES-RIM (2014-2016) projects, and now a days it is being tested in real time for south Iberia. Additionally, the ALERTES-SC3 system integrates an on-site EEWS software, developed by ROA-UCA, which is running for testing in real time in some seismic broad band stations of the WM network. Regional EEWS are not able to provide alerts in the area closet to the epicentre (blind zone), so a dense on-site EEWS is necessary. As it was mentioned, ALERTES-SC3 inludes the on-site software running on several WM stations but a more dense on-site stations are necessary to cover the blind zones. In order to densify this areas, inside of the "blind zones", a low cost on-site prototype "Pi-EEWS", based on a Raspberry Pi card and low cost acelerometers. In this work the main design ideas, the components and its capabilities will be shown.

Near-Real-Time Sismo-acoustic Submarine Station for offshore monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Anna, Giuseppe; D'Alessandro, Antonino; Fertitta, Gioacchino; Fraticelli, Nicola; Calore, Daniele

2016-04-01

From the early 1980's, Italian seismicity is monitored by the National Seismic Network (NSN). The network has been considerably enhanced by INGV since 2005 by 24-bit digital stations equipped with broad-band sensors. The NSN is nowadays constituted by about 300 on-land seismic station able to detect and locate also small magnitude earthquake in the whole Italian peninsula. However, the lack of offshore seismic stations does not allow the accurate estimation of hypocentral and focal parameters of small magnitude earthquakes occurring in offshore areas. As in the Mediterranean area there is an intense offshore seismic activity, an extension of the seismic monitoring to the sea would be beneficial. There are two types of stations that could be used to extend the network towards the sea: the first type is connected to the coast though a cable, the second type is isolated (or stand alone) and works autonomously. Both solutions have serious limitations: the first one, for several technical and economic problems, linked to the indispensable transmission/alimentation cable, cannot be installed far from the coast; the second one, allows access to the recorded data, only after they are recovered from the seabed. It is clear that these technical solutions are not suitable for the real time monitoring of the offshore seismicity or for the realization of a tsunami warning system. For this reason, in early 2010, the OBSLab of Gibilmanna begins the design of a submarine station able to overcome the limitations of the two systems above. The station isbuilt under the project EMSO-MedIT. The two stations built have already been tested in dock and ready for installation. One of this station will be installed, in few time, in the southern Tyrrhenian Sea, near the epicentre of the Palermo 2002 main shock. The sea bottom station will be equipped with 2 very broadband 3C seismometers, a broad band hydrophone, a differential and an absolute pressure gauge. The station includes a submarine module, which houses the sensors. The submarine module is connected via an electromechanical cable to a stopper buoy, which acts as tensioning device, and a "tethered" cable, to a surface buoy, which supply power to the underwater part. The surface buoy handles the communication with the submarine module and the transmission of real-time/near-real-time data to the monitoring centre to the ground.

Early Warning/Track-and-Trigger Systems to Detect Deterioration and Improve Outcomes in Hospitalized Patients.

PubMed

Shiloh, Ariel L; Lominadze, George; Gong, Michelle N; Savel, Richard H

2016-02-01

As a global effort toward improving patient safety, a specific area of focus has been the early recognition and rapid intervention in deteriorating ward patients. This focus on "failure to rescue" has led to the construction of early warning/track-and-trigger systems. In this review article, we present a description of the data behind the creation and implementation of such systems, including multiple algorithms and strategies for deployment. Additionally, the strengths and weaknesses of the various systems and their evaluation in the literature are emphasized. Despite the limitations of the current literature, the potential benefit of these early warning/track-and-trigger systems to improve patient outcomes remains significant. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Meteorological tsunamis along the U.S. coastline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilibic, I.; Monserrat, S.; Amores, A.; Dadic, V.; Fine, I.; Horvath, K.; Ivankovic, D.; Marcos, M.; Mihanovic, H.; Pasquet, S.; Rabinovich, A. B.; Sepic, J.; Strelec Mahovic, N.; Whitmore, P.

2012-04-01

Meteotsunamis, or meteorological tsunamis, are atmospherically induced ocean waves in the tsunami frequency band that are found to affect coasts in a destructive way in a number of places in the World Ocean, including the U.S. coastline. The Boothbay Harbor, Maine, in October 2008 and Daytona Beach, Florida, in July 1992 were hit by several meters high waves appearing from "nowhere", and a preliminary assessment pointed to the atmosphere as a possible source for the events. As a need for in-depth analyses and proper qualification of these and other events emerged, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) decided to fund the research, currently carried out within the TMEWS project (Towards a MEteotsunami Warning System along the U.S. coastline). The project structure, planned research activities and first results will be presented here. The first objective of the project is creation of a list of potential meteotsunami events, from catalogues, news and high-resolution sea level data, and their proper assessment with regards to the source, generation and dynamics. The assessment will be based on the research of the various types of ocean (tide gauges, buoys), atmospheric (ground stations, buoys, vertical soundings, reanalyses) and remote sensing (satellites) data and products, supported by the atmospheric and ocean modelling efforts. Based on the earned knowledge, the basis for a meteotsunami warning system, i.e. observational systems and communication needs for early detection of a meteotsunami, will be defined. Finally, meteotsunami warning protocols, procedures and decision matrix will be developed, and tested on historical meteotsunami events. These deliverables are expected also to boost meteotsunami research in other parts of the World Ocean, and to contribute to the creation of an efficient meteotsunami warning systems in different regions of interest, such as Mediterranean Sea, western Japan, Western Australia or other.

Experience from three years of local capacity development for tsunami early warning in Indonesia: challenges, lessons and the way ahead

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spahn, H.; Hoppe, M.; Vidiarina, H. D.; Usdianto, B.

2010-07-01

Five years after the 2004 tsunami, a lot has been achieved to make communities in Indonesia better prepared for tsunamis. This achievement is primarily linked to the development of the Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (InaTEWS). However, many challenges remain. This paper describes the experience with local capacity development for tsunami early warning (TEW) in Indonesia, based on the activities of a pilot project. TEW in Indonesia is still new to disaster management institutions and the public, as is the paradigm of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). The technology components of InaTEWS will soon be fully operational. The major challenge for the system is the establishment of clear institutional arrangements and capacities at national and local levels that support the development of public and institutional response capability at the local level. Due to a lack of information and national guidance, most local actors have a limited understanding of InaTEWS and DRR, and often show little political will and priority to engage in TEW. The often-limited capacity of local governments is contrasted by strong engagement of civil society organisations that opt for early warning based on natural warning signs rather than technology-based early warning. Bringing together the various actors, developing capacities in a multi-stakeholder cooperation for an effective warning system are key challenges for the end-to-end approach of InaTEWS. The development of local response capability needs to receive the same commitment as the development of the system's technology components. Public understanding of and trust in the system comes with knowledge and awareness on the part of the end users of the system and convincing performance on the part of the public service provider. Both sides need to be strengthened. This requires the integration of TEW into DRR, clear institutional arrangements, national guidance and intensive support for capacity development at local levels as well as dialogue between the various actors.

Early warning of orographically induced floods and landslides in Western Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leine, Ann-Live; Wang, Thea; Boje, Søren

2017-04-01

In Western Norway, landslides and debris flows are commonly initiated by short-term orographic rainfall or intensity peaks during a prolonged rainfall event. In recent years, the flood warning service in Norway has evolved from being solely a flood forecasting service to also integrating landslides into its early warning systems. As both floods and landslides are closely related to the same hydrometeorological processes, particularly in small catchments, there is a natural synergy between monitoring flood and landslide risk. The Norwegian Flood and Landslide Hazard Forecasting and Warning Service issues regional landslide hazard warnings based on hydrological models, threshold values, observations and weather forecasts. Intense rainfall events and/or orographic precipitation that, under certain topographic conditions, significantly increase the risk of debris avalanches and debris floods are lately receiving more research focus from the Norwegian warning service. Orographic precipitation is a common feature in W-Norway, when moist and relatively mild air arrives from the Atlantic. Steep mountain slopes covered by glacial till makes the region prone to landslides, as well as flooding. The operational early warning system in Norway requires constant improvement, especially with the enhanced number of intense rainfall events that occur in a warming climate. Here, we examine different cases of intense rainfall events which have lead to landslides and debris flows, as well as increased runoff in fast responding small catchments. The main objective is to increase the understanding of the hydrometeorological conditions related to these events, in order to make priorities for the future development of the warning service.

Early warning system for aftershocks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bakun, W.H.; Fischer, F.G.; Jensen, E.G.; VanSchaack, J.

1994-01-01

A prototype early warning system to provide San Francisco and Oakland, California a few tens-of-seconds warning of incoming strong ground shaking from already-occurred M ≧ 3.7 aftershocks of the magnitude 7.1 17 October 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake was operational on 28 October 1989. The prototype system consisted of four components: ground motion sensors in the epicentral area, a central receiver, a radio repeater, and radio receivers. One of the radio receivers was deployed at the California Department of Transportation (CALTRANS) headquarters at the damaged Cypress Street section of the I-880 freeway in Oakland, California on 28 October 1989 and provided about 20 sec of warning before shaking from the M 4.5 Loma Prieta aftershock that occurred on 2 November 1989 at 0550 UTC. In its first 6 months of operation, the system generated triggers for all 12 M > 3.7 aftershocks for which trigger documentation is preserved, did not trigger on any M ≦ 3.6 aftershocks, and produced one false trigger as a result of a now-corrected single point of failure design flaw. Because the prototype system demonstrated that potentially useful warnings of strong shaking from aftershocks are feasible, the USGS has completed a portable early warning system for aftershocks that can be deployed anywhere.

Long Period Seismic Waves Developped at Local Distances and Their Importance for EEWs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalkan Ertan, Esra; Pınar, Ali

2017-04-01

Long period ground motions is an highly importance topic nowadays because of the number of the large-scale structures increases day by day in metropolitan areas. Their effect on the large-scale structure (high rise buildings, suspension bridges, off-shore oil drilling platforms etc.) are more perceivable than small structures. Studies show that long period ground motions especially occurs in distant sedimentary basins with the help of the path effects. (Koketsu and Miyake, 2008) Period of the waves is ranging from several to ten seconds and that causes dramatic resonance and severe damage to the structures which are located in deep sedimentary basins (Furumura et al., 2013). There are so many examples of how destructive these waves can be. A devastating example is Mexico City, which is located 400 km away from the 1985 Michoacan Earthquake (Mw=8.0) epicenter, where 300 buldings collapsed and 800 buildings were demolished beyond repair. (Celebi et al, 1987). Another example is 2003 Tokachi-oki Earthquake associated with severe damage on large oil tanks, and fires lasting two days at the city of Tomakomani 250 km away from the source (Koketsu et al, 2005). Lots of studies revealed that the sedimentary basins amplifiy the long period seismic waves. In the case of Marmara Region, three important basins namely Çınarcık, Central and Tekirdaǧ Basins exist in Marmara Sea. The primary objective of the proposed study is to investigate if any relations exist between basins structures and generation of long period seismic waves which can be effective in Istanbul Metropolitan Area and develop reliable early warning applications or systems for structures which are under such risk. Three types of algorithms are in use for EEW applications used for this study, Virtual Seismologist, PRESTo and ELARMS2. The early warning signal is communicated to the appropriate server shut-down systems of the recipient facilities, that automatically decide proper action based on the alarm levels. The stations are located at basin-edges, outside and inside the basins. So we have a chance to compare the seismograms whether or not the earthquake generates long period ground motions and to send signals to early warning systems. Until now, we have a good example for long period seismic waves which was caused by North Aegean Earthquake on 24 May 2014 (Mw=6.9). It was located approximately 30 km north-west of Gökçeada Island and widely felt in İstanbul Metropolitan area. The earthquake epicenter was 300 km away from Istanbul, but the shaking duration of tall buildings was high up to 10 minutes. The travel time of the long period waves from the epicenter to the metropolitan area of Istanbul is about 85 seconds providing more than 50 seconds warning time. Although, the amplitude of the strong motion waveforms were small, the long period and the long duration of the velocity waveforms acquired at more than 100 strong motion stations within the city, explains to some degree the causatives of the long shaking duration of tall buildings.

Research and application of a hybrid model based on dynamic fuzzy synthetic evaluation for establishing air quality forecasting and early warning system: A case study in China.

PubMed

Xu, Yunzhen; Du, Pei; Wang, Jianzhou

2017-04-01

As the atmospheric environment pollution has been becoming more and more serious in China, it is highly desirable to develop a scientific and effective early warning system that plays a great significant role in analyzing and monitoring air quality. However, establishing a robust early warning system for warning the public in advance and ameliorating air quality is not only an extremely challenging task but also a public concerned problem for human health. Most previous studies are focused on improving the prediction accuracy, which usually ignore the significance of uncertainty information and comprehensive evaluation concerning air pollutants. Therefore, in this paper a novel robust early warning system was successfully developed, which consists of three modules: evaluation module, forecasting module and characteristics estimating module. In this system, a new dynamic fuzzy synthetic evaluation is proposed and applied to determine air quality levels and primary pollutants, which can be regarded as the research objectives; Moreover, to further mine and analyze the characteristics of air pollutants, four different distribution functions and interval forecasting method are also employed that can not only provide predictive range, confidence level and the other uncertain information of the pollutants future values, but also assist decision-makers in reducing and controlling the emissions of atmospheric pollutants. Case studies utilizing hourly PM 2.5 , PM 10 and SO 2 data collected from Tianjin and Shanghai in China are applied as illustrative examples to estimate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed system. Experimental results obviously indicated that the developed novel early warning system is much suitable for analyzing and monitoring air pollution, which can also add a novel viable option for decision-makers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global early warning systems for natural hazards: systematic and people-centred.

PubMed

Basher, Reid

2006-08-15

To be effective, early warning systems for natural hazards need to have not only a sound scientific and technical basis, but also a strong focus on the people exposed to risk, and with a systems approach that incorporates all of the relevant factors in that risk, whether arising from the natural hazards or social vulnerabilities, and from short-term or long-term processes. Disasters are increasing in number and severity and international institutional frameworks to reduce disasters are being strengthened under United Nations oversight. Since the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004, there has been a surge of interest in developing early warning systems to cater to the needs of all countries and all hazards.

Surveillance and early warning systems of infectious disease in China: From 2012 to 2014.

PubMed

Zhang, Honglong; Wang, Liping; Lai, Shengjie; Li, Zhongjie; Sun, Qiao; Zhang, Peng

2017-07-01

Appropriate surveillance and early warning of infectious diseases have very useful roles in disease control and prevention. In 2004, China established the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System and the Public Health Emergency Event Surveillance System to report disease surveillance and events on the basis of data sources from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System, China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System in this country. This study provided a descriptive summary and a data analysis, from 2012 to 2014, of these 3 key surveillance and early warning systems of infectious disease in China with the intent to provide suggestions for system improvement and perfection. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Real-time prediction of the occurrence of GLE events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Núñez, Marlon; Reyes-Santiago, Pedro J.; Malandraki, Olga E.

2017-07-01

A tool for predicting the occurrence of Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) events using the UMASEP scheme is presented. This real-time tool, called HESPERIA UMASEP-500, is based on the detection of the magnetic connection, along which protons arrive in the near-Earth environment, by estimating the lag correlation between the time derivatives of 1 min soft X-ray flux (SXR) and 1 min near-Earth proton fluxes observed by the GOES satellites. Unlike current GLE warning systems, this tool can predict GLE events before the detection by any neutron monitor (NM) station. The prediction performance measured for the period from 1986 to 2016 is presented for two consecutive periods, because of their notable difference in performance. For the 2000-2016 period, this prediction tool obtained a probability of detection (POD) of 53.8% (7 of 13 GLE events), a false alarm ratio (FAR) of 30.0%, and average warning times (AWT) of 8 min with respect to the first NM station's alert and 15 min to the GLE Alert Plus's warning. We have tested the model by replacing the GOES proton data with SOHO/EPHIN proton data, and the results are similar in terms of POD, FAR, and AWT for the same period. The paper also presents a comparison with a GLE warning system.

Military Intervention to Stop Mass Atrocities

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-05-04

the circumstances where the United States should respond militarily. Early warning and prevention strategies are vital since these approaches allow...34genocide." As early as 1933, Lemkin addressed the issue of genocide in a paper he sent to a League of Nations conference in Madrid, Spain. He...2017, https://www.ushmm.org/confront- genocide/speakers-and-events/all-speakers-and-events/ early -warning-and-prevention/the-united-states- measures-to

Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System) for Sicily

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Bonaccorso, Brunella; Gueli, Roberto; Basile, Giuseppe

2017-09-01

The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System), specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall-runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall-runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015) have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002-2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall threshold models to produce warning on a daily basis for the entire region.

Seismogeodesy for rapid earthquake and tsunami characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bock, Y.

2016-12-01

Rapid estimation of earthquake magnitude and fault mechanism is critical for earthquake and tsunami warning systems. Traditionally, the monitoring of earthquakes and tsunamis has been based on seismic networks for estimating earthquake magnitude and slip, and tide gauges and deep-ocean buoys for direct measurement of tsunami waves. These methods are well developed for ocean basin-wide warnings but are not timely enough to protect vulnerable populations and infrastructure from the effects of local tsunamis, where waves may arrive within 15-30 minutes of earthquake onset time. Direct measurements of displacements by GPS networks at subduction zones allow for rapid magnitude and slip estimation in the near-source region, that are not affected by instrumental limitations and magnitude saturation experienced by local seismic networks. However, GPS displacements by themselves are too noisy for strict earthquake early warning (P-wave detection). Optimally combining high-rate GPS and seismic data (in particular, accelerometers that do not clip), referred to as seismogeodesy, provides a broadband instrument that does not clip in the near field, is impervious to magnitude saturation, and provides accurate real-time static and dynamic displacements and velocities in real time. Here we describe a NASA-funded effort to integrate GPS and seismogeodetic observations as part of NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii. It consists of a series of plug-in modules that allow for a hierarchy of rapid seismogeodetic products, including automatic P-wave picking, hypocenter estimation, S-wave prediction, magnitude scaling relationships based on P-wave amplitude (Pd) and peak ground displacement (PGD), finite-source CMT solutions and fault slip models as input for tsunami warnings and models. For the NOAA/NASA project, the modules are being integrated into an existing USGS Earthworm environment, currently limited to traditional seismic data. We are focused on a network of dozens of seismogeodetic stations available through the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (University of Washington), the Plate Boundary Observatory (UNAVCO) and the Pacific Northwest Geodetic Array (Central Washington University) as the basis for local tsunami warnings for a large subduction zone earthquake in Cascadia.

Geoethical considerations in early warning of flooding and landslides: Case study from Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devoli, Graziella; Kleivane Krøgli, Ingeborg; Dahl, Mads Peter; Colleuille, Hervé; Nykjær Boje, Søren; Sund, Monica

2015-04-01

The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) runs the national early warning systems (EWS) for flooding and shallow landslides in Norway. The two EWSs have been operational since the late 1980s and 2013 respectively, and are based on weather forecasts, various hydro-meteorological prognosis and expert evaluation. Daily warning levels and related information to the public is prepared and presented through custom build internet platforms. In natural hazards sciences, the risk of a specific threat is defined as the product of hazard and consequence. In this context an EWS is intended to work as a mitigation measure in lowering the consequence and thus the risk of the threat. One of several factors determining the quality of such an EWS, is how warnings are communicated to the public. In contrary to what is common practice in some other countries, experts working with EWS in Norway cannot be held personally responsible for consequences of warnings being issued or not. However, the communication of warnings for flooding and landslides at NVE still implies many considerations of geoethical kind. Which are the consequences today for the forecasters when erroneous warning messages are sent because based on a poorly documented analysis? What is for example the most responsible way to describe uncertainties in warnings issued? What is the optimal compromise between avoiding false alarms and not sending out a specific warning? Is it responsible to rely on a "gut feeling"? Some authorities complain in receiving warning messages too often. Is it responsible to begin notifying these, only in cases of "high hazard level" and no longer in cases of "moderate hazard level"? Is it acceptable to issue general warnings for large geographical areas without being able to pinpoint the treat on local scale? What responsibility lies within the EWS in recommending evacuation or other practical measures to local authorities? By presenting how early warnings of flooding and landslides are communicated in Norway and discussing the questions above, we intend to add to the discussion on what is the ethical responsibility for scientists performing forecasting and communication of natural hazards.

Improving Correlation Algorithms to Detect and Characterize Smaller Magnitude Induced Seismicity Swarms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skoumal, R.; Brudzinski, M.; Currie, B.

2015-12-01

Induced seismic sequences often occur as swarms that can include thousands of small (< M 2) earthquakes. While the identification of this microseismicity would invariably aid in the characterization and modeling of induced sequences, traditional earthquake detection techniques often provide incomplete catalogs, even when local networks are deployed. Because induced sequences often include scores of micro-earthquakes that prelude larger magnitude events, the identification of these small magnitude events would be crucial for the early identification of induced sequences. By taking advantage of the repeating, swarm-like nature of induced seismicity, a more robust catalog can be created using complementary correlation algorithms in near real-time without the reliance on traditional earthquake detection and association routines. Since traditional earthquake catalog methodologies using regional networks have a relatively high detection threshold (M 2+), we have sought to develop correlation routines that can detect smaller magnitude sequences. While short-term/long-term amplitude average detection algorithms requires significant signal-to-noise ratio at multiple stations for confident identification, a correlation detector is capable of identifying earthquakes with high confidence using just a single station. The result is an embarrassingly parallel task that can be employed for a network to be used as an early warning system for potentially induced seismicity while also better characterizing tectonic sequences beyond what traditional methods allow.

Early Warning Signs. A Solution-Finding Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sullivan, Robert, Comp.

2017-01-01

This Solution-Finding Report provides information, requested by Tara Zuber with the Great Lakes Comprehensive Center (GLCC) at American Institutes for Research (AIR), for resources with evidence-based practices that look at the social and emotional causes that impact the lack of student learning and engagement, for GLCC's Early Warning Signs work.…

Research on Disaster Early Warning and Disaster Relief Integrated Service System Based on Block Data Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Zhang, H.; Wang, C.; Tang, D.

2018-04-01

With the continuous development of social economy, the interaction between mankind and nature has become increasingly evident. Disastrous global catastrophes have occurred from time to time, causing huge losses to people's lives and property. All governments recognize the importance of the establishment of disaster early warning and release mechanisms, and it is also an urgent issue to improve the comprehensive service level of emergency response and disaster relief. However, disaster early warning and emergency relief information is usually generated by different departments, and the diverse data sources, difficult integration, and limited release speed have always been difficult issues to be solved. Block data is the aggregation of various distributed (point data) and segmentation (data) big data on a specific platform and make them happen continuous polymerization effect, block data theory is a good solution to cross-sectoral, cross-platform Disaster information data sharing and integration problems. This paper attempts to discuss the integrated service mechanism of disaster information aggregation and disaster relief based on block data theory and introduces a location-based integrated service system for disaster early warning and disaster relief.

Appraising the Early-est earthquake monitoring system for tsunami alerting at the Italian Candidate Tsunami Service Provider

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardi, F.; Lomax, A.; Michelini, A.; Lauciani, V.; Piatanesi, A.; Lorito, S.

2015-09-01

In this paper we present and discuss the performance of the procedure for earthquake location and characterization implemented in the Italian Candidate Tsunami Service Provider at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) in Rome. Following the ICG/NEAMTWS guidelines, the first tsunami warning messages are based only on seismic information, i.e., epicenter location, hypocenter depth, and magnitude, which are automatically computed by the software Early-est. Early-est is a package for rapid location and seismic/tsunamigenic characterization of earthquakes. The Early-est software package operates using offline-event or continuous-real-time seismic waveform data to perform trace processing and picking, and, at a regular report interval, phase association, event detection, hypocenter location, and event characterization. Early-est also provides mb, Mwp, and Mwpd magnitude estimations. mb magnitudes are preferred for events with Mwp ≲ 5.8, while Mwpd estimations are valid for events with Mwp ≳ 7.2. In this paper we present the earthquake parameters computed by Early-est between the beginning of March 2012 and the end of December 2014 on a global scale for events with magnitude M ≥ 5.5, and we also present the detection timeline. We compare the earthquake parameters automatically computed by Early-est with the same parameters listed in reference catalogs. Such reference catalogs are manually revised/verified by scientists. The goal of this work is to test the accuracy and reliability of the fully automatic locations provided by Early-est. In our analysis, the epicenter location, hypocenter depth and magnitude parameters do not differ significantly from the values in the reference catalogs. Both mb and Mwp magnitudes show differences to the reference catalogs. We thus derived correction functions in order to minimize the differences and correct biases between our values and the ones from the reference catalogs. Correction of the Mwp distance dependency is particularly relevant, since this magnitude refers to the larger and probably tsunamigenic earthquakes. Mwp values at stations with epicentral distance Δ ≲ 30° are significantly overestimated with respect to the CMT-global solutions, whereas Mwp values at stations with epicentral distance Δ ≳ 90° are slightly underestimated. After applying such distance correction the Mwp provided by Early-est differs from CMT-global catalog values of about δ Mwp ≈ 0.0 ∓ 0.2. Early-est continuously acquires time-series data and updates the earthquake source parameters. Our analysis shows that the epicenter coordinates and the magnitude values converge within less than 10 min (5 min in the Mediterranean region) toward the stable values. Our analysis shows that we can compute Mwp magnitudes that do not display short epicentral distance dependency overestimation, and we can provide robust and reliable earthquake source parameters to compile tsunami warning messages within less than 15 min after the event origin time.

Nested sampling at karst springs: from basic patterns to event triggered sampling and on-line monitoring.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stadler, Hermann; Skritek, Paul; Zerobin, Wolfgang; Klock, Erich; Farnleitner, Andreas H.

2010-05-01

In the last year, global changes in ecosystems, the growth of population, and modifications of the legal framework within the EU have caused an increased need of qualitative groundwater and spring water monitoring with the target to continue to supply the consumers with high-quality drinking water in the future. Additionally the demand for sustainable protection of drinking water resources effected the initiated implementation of early warning systems and quality assurance networks in water supplies. In the field of hydrogeological investigations, event monitoring and event sampling is worst case scenario monitoring. Therefore, such tools become more and more indispensible to get detailed information about aquifer parameter and vulnerability. In the framework of water supplies, smart sampling designs combined with in-situ measurements of different parameters and on-line access can play an important role in early warning systems and quality surveillance networks. In this study nested sampling tiers are presented, which were designed to cover total system dynamic. Basic monitoring sampling (BMS), high frequency sampling (HFS) and automated event sampling (AES) were combined. BMS was organized with a monthly increment for at least two years, and HFS was performed during times of increased groundwater recharge (e.g. during snowmelt). At least one AES tier was embedded in this system. AES was enabled by cross-linking of hydrological stations, so the system could be run fully automated and could include real-time availability of data. By means of networking via Low Earth Orbiting Satellites (LEO-satellites), data from the precipitation station (PS) in the catchment area are brought together with data from the spring sampling station (SSS) without the need of terrestrial infrastructure for communication and power supply. Furthermore, the whole course of input and output parameters, like precipitation (input system) and discharge (output system), and the status of the sampling system is transmitted via LEO-Satellites to a Central Monitoring Station (CMS), which can be linked with a web-server to have unlimited real-time data access. The automatically generated notice of event to a local service team of the sampling station is transmitted in combination with internet, GSM, GPRS or LEO-Satellites. If a GPRS-network is available for the stations, this system could be realized also via this network. However, one great problem of these terrestrial communication systems is the risk of default when their networks are overloaded, like during flood events or thunderstorms. Therefore, in addition, it is necessary to have the possibility to transmit the measured values via communication satellites when a terrestrial infrastructure is not available. LEO-satellites are especially useful in the alpine regions because they have no deadspots, but only sometimes latency periods. In the workouts we combined in-situ measurements (precipitation, electrical conductivity, discharge, water temperature, spectral absorption coefficient, turbidity) with time increments from 1 to 15 minutes with data from the different sampling tires (environmental isotopes, chemical, mineralogical and bacteriological data).

Early warning of illegal development for protected areas by integrating cellular automata with neural networks.

PubMed

Li, Xia; Lao, Chunhua; Liu, Yilun; Liu, Xiaoping; Chen, Yimin; Li, Shaoying; Ai, Bing; He, Zijian

2013-11-30

Ecological security has become a major issue under fast urbanization in China. As the first two cities in this country, Shenzhen and Dongguan issued the ordinance of Eco-designated Line of Control (ELC) to "wire" ecologically important areas for strict protection in 2005 and 2009 respectively. Early warning systems (EWS) are a useful tool for assisting the implementation ELC. In this study, a multi-model approach is proposed for the early warning of illegal development by integrating cellular automata (CA) and artificial neural networks (ANN). The objective is to prevent the ecological risks or catastrophe caused by such development at an early stage. The integrated model is calibrated by using the empirical information from both remote sensing and handheld GPS (global positioning systems). The MAR indicator which is the ratio of missing alarms to all the warnings is proposed for better assessment of the model performance. It is found that the fast urban development has caused significant threats to natural-area protection in the study area. The integration of CA, ANN and GPS provides a powerful tool for describing and predicting illegal development which is in highly non-linear and fragmented forms. The comparison shows that this multi-model approach has much better performances than the single-model approach for the early warning. Compared with the single models of CA and ANN, this integrated multi-model can improve the value of MAR by 65.48% and 5.17% respectively. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relation between stability and resilience determines the performance of early warning signals under different environmental drivers.

PubMed

Dai, Lei; Korolev, Kirill S; Gore, Jeff

2015-08-11

Shifting patterns of temporal fluctuations have been found to signal critical transitions in a variety of systems, from ecological communities to human physiology. However, failure of these early warning signals in some systems calls for a better understanding of their limitations. In particular, little is known about the generality of early warning signals in different deteriorating environments. In this study, we characterized how multiple environmental drivers influence the dynamics of laboratory yeast populations, which was previously shown to display alternative stable states [Dai et al., Science, 2012]. We observed that both the coefficient of variation and autocorrelation increased before population collapse in two slowly deteriorating environments, one with a rising death rate and the other one with decreasing nutrient availability. We compared the performance of early warning signals across multiple environments as "indicators for loss of resilience." We find that the varying performance is determined by how a system responds to changes in a specific driver, which can be captured by a relation between stability (recovery rate) and resilience (size of the basin of attraction). Furthermore, we demonstrate that the positive correlation between stability and resilience, as the essential assumption of indicators based on critical slowing down, can break down in this system when multiple environmental drivers are changed simultaneously. Our results suggest that the stability-resilience relation needs to be better understood for the application of early warning signals in different scenarios.

Relation between stability and resilience determines the performance of early warning signals under different environmental drivers

PubMed Central

Dai, Lei; Korolev, Kirill S.; Gore, Jeff

2015-01-01

Shifting patterns of temporal fluctuations have been found to signal critical transitions in a variety of systems, from ecological communities to human physiology. However, failure of these early warning signals in some systems calls for a better understanding of their limitations. In particular, little is known about the generality of early warning signals in different deteriorating environments. In this study, we characterized how multiple environmental drivers influence the dynamics of laboratory yeast populations, which was previously shown to display alternative stable states [Dai et al., Science, 2012]. We observed that both the coefficient of variation and autocorrelation increased before population collapse in two slowly deteriorating environments, one with a rising death rate and the other one with decreasing nutrient availability. We compared the performance of early warning signals across multiple environments as “indicators for loss of resilience.” We find that the varying performance is determined by how a system responds to changes in a specific driver, which can be captured by a relation between stability (recovery rate) and resilience (size of the basin of attraction). Furthermore, we demonstrate that the positive correlation between stability and resilience, as the essential assumption of indicators based on critical slowing down, can break down in this system when multiple environmental drivers are changed simultaneously. Our results suggest that the stability–resilience relation needs to be better understood for the application of early warning signals in different scenarios. PMID:26216946

A Climate Trend Analysis of Niger

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Eilerts, Gary; Adoum, Alkhalil; White, Libby

2012-01-01

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), identifies a substantial recovery of rainfall in Niger, accompanied by increases in air temperatures. These analyses are based on quality-controlled station observations. Conclusions: * Summer rains have increased during the past 20 years and have almost returned to 1960-89 levels. * Temperatures have increased by 0.6° Celsius since 1975, amplifying the effect of droughts. * Crop yields are very low and stagnant, and the population is growing very rapidly. * Niger has offset very rapid population growth with a large expansion of cultivated land. * If the expansion of farmland slows down, stagnant yields and population growth could lead to increased food insecurity.

TrigDB back-filling method in EEW for the regional earthquake for reducing false location of the deep focus earthquake event by considering neighborhood triggers and forced association.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J. H.; Chi, H. C.; Lim, I. S.; Seong, Y. J.; Pak, J.

2017-12-01

During the first phase of EEW(Earthquake Early Warning) service to the public by KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) from 2015 in Korea, KIGAM(Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources) has adopted ElarmS2 of UC Berkeley BSL and modified local magnitude relation, travel time curves and association procedures so called TrigDB back-filling method. The TrigDB back-filling method uses a database of sorted lists of stations based on epicentral distances of the pre-defined events located on the grids for 1,401 × 1,601 = 2,243,001 events around the Korean Peninsula at a grid spacing of 0.05 degrees. When the version of an event is updated, the TrigDB back-filling method is invoked. First, the grid closest to the epicenter of an event is chosen from the database and candidate stations, which are stations corresponding to the chosen grid and also adjacent to the already-associated stations, are selected. Second, the directions from the chosen grid to the associated stations are averaged to represent the direction of wave propagation, which is used as a reference for computing apparent travel times. The apparent travel times for the associated stations are computed using a P wave velocity of 5.5 km/s from the grid to the projected points in the reference direction. The travel times for the triggered candidate stations are also computed and used to obtain the difference between the apparent travel times of the associated stations and the triggered candidates. Finally, if the difference in the apparent travel times is less than that of the arrival times, the method forces the triggered candidate station to be associated with the event and updates the event location. This method is useful to reduce false locations of events which could be generated from the deep (> 500 km) and regional distance earthquakes happening on the subduction pacific plate boundaries. In comparison of the case study between TrigDB back-filling applied system and the others, we could get the more reliable results in the early stagy of the version updating by forced association of the neighbored stations.

A fundamental conflict of care: Nurses' accounts of balancing patients' sleep with taking vital sign observations at night.

PubMed

Hope, Joanna; Recio-Saucedo, Alejandra; Fogg, Carole; Griffiths, Peter; Smith, Gary B; Westwood, Greta; Schmidt, Paul E

2017-12-21

To explore why adherence to vital sign observations scheduled by an early warning score protocol reduces at night. Regular vital sign observations can reduce avoidable deterioration in hospital. early warning score protocols set the frequency of these observations by the severity of a patient's condition. Vital sign observations are taken less frequently at night, even with an early warning score in place, but no literature has explored why. A qualitative interpretative design informed this study. Seventeen semi-structured interviews with nursing staff working on wards with varying levels of adherence to scheduled vital sign observations. A thematic analysis approach was used. At night, nursing teams found it difficult to balance the competing care goals of supporting sleep with taking vital sign observations. The night-time frequency of these observations was determined by clinical judgement, ward-level expectations of observation timing and the risk of disturbing other patients. Patients with COPD or dementia could be under-monitored, while patients nearing the end of life could be over-monitored. In this study, we found an early warning score algorithm focused on deterioration prevention did not account for long-term management or palliative care trajectories. Nurses were therefore less inclined to wake such patients to take vital sign observations at night. However, the perception of widespread exceptions and lack of evidence regarding optimum frequency risks delegitimising the early warning score approach. This may pose a risk to patient safety, particularly patients with dementia or chronic conditions. Nurses should document exceptions and discuss these with the wider team. Hospitals should monitor why vital sign observations are missed at night, identify which groups are under-monitored and provide guidance on prioritising competing expectations. early warning score protocols should take account of different care trajectories. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Clinical Nursing Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with Near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products included in the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spruce, Joseph; Hargrove, William W.; Gasser, Gerald; Norman, Steve

2013-01-01

U.S. forests occupy approx.1/3 of total land area (approx. 304 million ha). Since 2000, a growing number of regionally evident forest disturbances have occurred due to abiotic and biotic agents. Regional forest disturbances can threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. Timely regional forest disturbance monitoring products are needed to aid forest health management work. Near Real Time (NRT) twice daily MODIS NDVI data provide a means to monitor U.S. regional forest disturbances every 8 days. Since 2010, these NRT forest change products have been produced and posted on the US Forest Service ForWarn Early Warning System for Forest Threats.

Apollo experience report: Crew station integration. Volume 1: Crew station design and development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allen, L. D.; Nussman, D. A.

1976-01-01

An overview of the evolution of the design and development of the Apollo command module and lunar module crew stations is given, with emphasis placed on the period from 1964 to 1969. The organizational planning, engineering techniques, and documentation involved are described, and a detailed chronology of the meetings, reviews, and exercises is presented. Crew station anomalies for the Apollo 7 to 11 missions are discussed, and recommendations for the solution of recurring problems of crew station acoustics, instrument glass failure, and caution and warning system performance are presented. Photographs of the various crew station configurations are also provided.

Early warning signals for critical transitions in a thermoacoustic system

PubMed Central

Gopalakrishnan, E. A.; Sharma, Yogita; John, Tony; Dutta, Partha Sharathi; Sujith, R. I.

2016-01-01

Dynamical systems can undergo critical transitions where the system suddenly shifts from one stable state to another at a critical threshold called the tipping point. The decrease in recovery rate to equilibrium (critical slowing down) as the system approaches the tipping point can be used to identify the proximity to a critical transition. Several measures have been adopted to provide early indications of critical transitions that happen in a variety of complex systems. In this study, we use early warning indicators to predict subcritical Hopf bifurcation occurring in a thermoacoustic system by analyzing the observables from experiments and from a theoretical model. We find that the early warning measures perform as robust indicators in the presence and absence of external noise. Thus, we illustrate the applicability of these indicators in an engineering system depicting critical transitions. PMID:27767065

The 2014 Karnali River Floods in Western Nepal: Making Community Based Early Warning Systems Work When Data Is Lacking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dugar, S.; MacClune, K.; Venkateswaran, K.; Yadav, S.; Szoenyi, M.

2015-12-01

Implementing Community Based Flood Early Warning System (EWS) in developing countries like Nepal is challenging. Complex topography and geology combined with a sparse network of river and rainfall gauges and little predictive meteorological capacity both nationally and regionally dramatically constrain EWS options. This paper provides a synopsis of the hydrological and meteorological conditions that led to flooding in the Karnali River, West Nepal during mid-August 2014, and analyses the effectiveness of flood EWS in the region. On August 14-15, 2014, a large, slow moving weather system deposited record breaking rainfall in the foothills of the Karnali River catchment. Precipitation depths of 200 to 500 mm were recorded over a 24-hour period, which led to rapid rise of river heights. At the Chisapani river gauge station used for the existing EWS, where the Karnali River exits the Himalaya onto the Indo-Gangetic Plain, water levels rapidly exceeded the 11 meter danger level. Between 3 to 6 am, water levels rose from 11 to 16. 1 meters, well beyond the design height of 15 meters. Analysis suggests that 2014 floods may have been a one-in-1000 year event. Starting with the onset of intense rainfall, the Chisapani gauge reader was in regular communication with downstream stakeholders and communities providing them with timely information regarding rising water level. This provided people just enough time to move to safe places with their livestock and key assets. Though households still lost substantial assets, without the EWS, floodwaters would have caught communities completely unaware and damage would almost certainly have been much worse. In particular, despite the complications associated with access to the Chisapani gauge and failure of critical communication nodes during the floods, EWS was instrumental in saving lives. This study explores both the details of the flood event and performance of the early warning system, and identifies lessons learned to help strengthen flood response in Nepal other regions facing similar data and technology constraints. This research also underscores the need to move from observation to forecast based EWS, ideally coupled with hydrological and meteorological models that would provide flood estimates well in advance to vulnerable communities.

ShakeAlert Users Transition to the Production Prototype System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauss, J. A.; Vinci, M.; Steele, W. P.; Hellweg, M.; Allen, R. M.; DeGroot, R. M.

2016-12-01

The ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning system transitioned from the demonstration system into the fully-fledged production prototype system this year. Users were migrated over to the new system concurrent with the release of the ShakeAlert UserDisplay Version 2.5.0. The production prototype system provides robust connectivity, fail-over mechanisms to ensure that alarms are deliverd even if one connection fails, and provides a framework to connect future stations, participants, and other sources as the project expands to the full public system. We will present an overview of key user sectors that are either testing or launching pilot projects for the system within their organizations. We will outline the implementation of certain actions, and highlight accomplishments and challenges the Beta Users encounter in fully implementing ShakeAlert within their organizations. By better studying these issues, project partners can better assist the users in incorporating early warning in their operations. Opening up the system to allow for pilot projects enables ShakeAlert users to develop hardware, software, and policy solutions for actions in response to early warning alerts in a controlled environment. This is the first step on the path toward limited rollouts. The pilot groups leverage the expertise of our stakeholders to develop the `last mile' alert distribution and responses. The transition went smoothly in February 2015, for users in California, and we expect to connect with more beta users and pilot groups in this next phase. User transition is planned for Fall 2016 for users in the Pacific Northwest. Beta Users, such as municipalities, emergency response groups, and county officials, lifelines, schools, and private industry continue to meet with ShakeAlert partners to 1) further education and training on both benefits and limitations 2) strategize on implementation actions, such as opening fire house bay doors in response to an alarm, and 3) coordinate continued engagement as the system comes online with more Users and in more areas. The newly created Joint Committee on Communication, Education, and Outreach is aiding with the education and training aspect of the rollout.

Seasonal scale water deficit forecasting in Africa and the Middle East using NASA's Land Information System (LIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Arsenault, K. R.; Shukla, S.; Getirana, A.; McNally, A.; Koster, R. D.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Badr, H. S.; Roningen, J. M.; Kumar, S.; Funk, C. C.

2017-12-01

A seamless and effective water deficit monitoring and early warning system is critical for assessing food security in Africa and the Middle East. In this presentation, we report on the ongoing development and validation of a seasonal scale water deficit forecasting system based on NASA's Land Information System (LIS) and seasonal climate forecasts. First, our presentation will focus on the implementation and validation of drought and water availability monitoring products in the region. Next, it will focus on evaluating drought and water availability forecasts. Finally, details will be provided of our ongoing collaboration with end-user partners in the region (e.g., USAID's Famine Early Warning Systems Network, FEWS NET), on formulating meaningful early warning indicators, effective communication and seamless dissemination of the products through NASA's web-services. The water deficit forecasting system thus far incorporates NASA GMAO's Catchment and the Noah Multi-Physics (MP) LSMs. In addition, the LSMs' surface and subsurface runoff are routed through the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) to simulate surface water dynamics. To establish a climatology from 1981-2015, the two LSMs are driven by NASA/GMAO's Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and the USGS and UCSB Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) daily rainfall dataset. Comparison of the models' energy and hydrological budgets with independent observations suggests that major droughts are well-reflected in the climatology. The system uses seasonal climate forecasts from NASA's GEOS-5 (the Goddard Earth Observing System Model-5) and NCEP's Climate Forecast System-2, and it produces forecasts of soil moisture, ET and streamflow out to 6 months in the future. Forecasts of those variables are formulated in terms of indicators to provide forecasts of drought and water availability in the region. Current work suggests that for the Blue Nile basin, (1) the combination of GEOS-5 and CFSv2 is equivalent in skill to the full North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME); and (2) the seasonal water deficit forecasting system skill for both soil moisture and streamflow anomalies is greater than the standard Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach.

Development and Experimental Application of International Affairs Indicators. Volume B. Supportive Research

DTIC Science & Technology

1974-06-01

i INDICATORS Approaches to Early Warning The Quantitative Indicators Approach: A ... 5 Summary Indicators and Early Warning...Indicators for Early ^ Wa rning 3. Quantitative Signs of Unusual or Ominous Activity 9 13 4. Simulated Cables 25 5 . TEXSCAN...Behavior) for Czechoslovakia 1 mmmmm mmm LIST OF FIGURES vi Pa£« 1. 2. 3. 4. 5 . 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. U. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18

Neural correlates of cigarette health warning avoidance among smokers.

PubMed

Stothart, George; Maynard, Olivia; Lavis, Rosie; Munafò, Marcus

2016-04-01

Eye-tracking technology has indicated that daily smokers actively avoid pictorial cigarette package health warnings. Avoidance may be due to a pre-cognitive perceptual bias or a higher order cognitive bias, such as reduced emotional processing. Using electroencephalography (EEG), this study aimed to identify the temporal point at which smokers' responses to health warnings begin to differ. Non-smokers (n=20) and daily smokers (n=20) viewed pictorial cigarette package health warnings and neutral control stimuli. These elicited Event Related Potentials reflecting early perceptual processing (visual P1), pre-attentive change detection (visual Mismatch Negativity), selective attentional orientation (P3) and a measure of emotional processing, the Late Positive Potential (LPP). There was no evidence for a difference in P1 responses between smokers and non-smokers. There was no difference in vMMN and P3 amplitude but some evidence for a delay in vMMN latency amongst smokers. There was strong evidence for delayed and reduced LPP to health warning stimuli amongst smokers compared to non-smokers. We find no evidence for an early perceptual bias in smokers' visual perception of health warnings but strong evidence that smokers are less sensitive to the emotional content of cigarette health warnings. Future health warning development should focus on increasing the emotional salience of pictorial health warning content amongst smokers. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Adolescents perceived effectiveness of the proposed European graphic tobacco warning labels.

PubMed

Vardavas, Constantine I; Connolly, Gregory; Karamanolis, Kostas; Kafatos, Anthony

2009-04-01

Graphical tobacco product labelling is a prominent source of health information and has an important position among tobacco control initiatives. However, little is known about its effectiveness among adolescents. With this above in mind, we aimed to research into how adolescents perceive the proposed EU graphic tobacco product warning labels as an effective means of preventing smoking initiation in comparison to the current EU text-only warning labels. Five hundred seventy four adolescents (13-18, 54% male) from Greece were privately interviewed, with the use of a digital questionnaire and randomly shown seven existing EU text-only and proposed EU graphic warning labels. Non-smoking respondents were asked to compare and rate the warnings effectiveness in regard to preventing them from smoking on a 1-5 Likert type scale. Irrespective of the warning category shown, on all occasions, non-smoking adolescents rated the suggested EU graphic labels as more effective in preventing them from smoking in comparison to the existing EU text-only warnings. Controlling for gender, age, current smoking status and number of cigarettes smoked per month, younger adolescents were found to opt for graphic warnings more often, and also perceive graphic warning labels as a more effective means of preventing them from smoking, in comparison to their elder peers (P < 0.001). The proposed EU graphic warning labels may play an important role in preventing of smoking initiation during the crucial years of early adolescence when smoking experimentation and early addiction usually take place.

Ionospheric Effects Prior to the Napa Earthquake of August 24, 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelley, M. C.; Swartz, W. E.; Komjathy, A.; Mannucci, A. J.; Shume, E. B.; Heki, K.; Fraser-Smith, A. C.; McCready, M. A.

2014-12-01

Recently, evidence that the ionosphere reacts in a reliable, reproducible manner before major earthquakes has been increasing. Fraser-Smith (1990) reported ULF magnetic field fluctuations prior to the Loma Prieta quake. Although not an ionospheric measurement, such magnetic fields before a quake are part of our explanation for the ionospheric effect. Heki (2011) and Heki and Enomoto (2013) reported in great detail the devastating March 11, 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in which numerous GPS satellite/ground-station pairs showed apparent changes, both increases and decreases, starting 40 minutes before the event. We say "apparent" since our theory is that electric fields associated with stresses before an earthquake map through the ionosphere at the speed of light and raise or lower the main ionosphere. Both effects have been detected. Heki's results for four quakes exceeding M = 7 are shown in Figure 4 of Heki (2011). Based on the inserted curve of Heki's Figure 4 relating the size of the ionospheric effect to the quake's magnitude, we were not optimistic about detecting an effect for the 6.0 Napa quake. However, it occurred at night, when the well-known shielding effect of the ionospheric D and lower E regions for EM fields becomes very small. When this special session with a later abstract deadline was announced, JPL researchers were asked to examine GPS data from California stations. Based on their data, the plot shown (left panel) combined with a similar plot for the Tohoku-Oki earthquake (right panel, based on Heki's data) was produced. Both panels show fluctuations of STEC (Slant Total Electron Content) before the quake times (indicated by asterisks showing the positions of ionospheric penetration points (IPP) at the respective quake times). Although alternative explanations for the TEC fluctuations cannot be ruled out entirely, these results suggest that a patent-pending system able to predict an earthquake some 30 minutes before an event by using satellites and ground stations to measure disturbances in the earth's ionosphere would be of great value. Such a system would be a major boon for vulnerable sites such as nuclear power plants and natural gas lines in populated areas as well as an early warning to evacuate vulnerable buildings, much like today's early warning system for tornados.

Combining Real-Time Seismic and GPS Data for Earthquake Early Warning (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boese, M.; Heaton, T. H.; Hudnut, K. W.

2013-12-01

Scientists at Caltech, UC Berkeley, the Univ. of SoCal, the Univ. of Washington, the US Geological Survey, and ETH Zurich have developed an earthquake early warning (EEW) demonstration system for California and the Pacific Northwest. To quickly determine the earthquake magnitude and location, 'ShakeAlert' currently processes and interprets real-time data-streams from ~400 seismic broadband and strong-motion stations within the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN). Based on these parameters, the 'UserDisplay' software predicts and displays the arrival and intensity of shaking at a given user site. Real-time ShakeAlert feeds are currently shared with around 160 individuals, companies, and emergency response organizations to educate potential users about EEW and to identify needs and applications of EEW in a future operational warning system. Recently, scientists at the contributing institutions have started to develop algorithms for ShakeAlert that make use of high-rate real-time GPS data to improve the magnitude estimates for large earthquakes (M>6.5) and to determine slip distributions. Knowing the fault slip in (near) real-time is crucial for users relying on or operating distributed systems, such as for power, water or transportation, especially if these networks run close to or across large faults. As shown in an earlier study, slip information is also useful to predict (in a probabilistic sense) how far a fault rupture will propagate, thus enabling more robust probabilistic ground-motion predictions at distant locations. Finally, fault slip information is needed for tsunami warning, such as in the Cascadia subduction-zone. To handle extended fault-ruptures of large earthquakes in real-time, Caltech and USGS Pasadena are currently developing and testing a two-step procedure that combines seismic and geodetic data; in the first step, high-frequency strong-motion amplitudes are used to rapidly classify near-and far-source stations. Then, the location and extent of the 2D fault rupture is determined from comparison with pre-calculated generic and fault-specific templates ('FinDer' algorithm, Finite Fault Rupture Detector). In the second step, long-period dynamic displacement amplitudes from the GPS sites are back-projected onto this rupture line/plane to estimate the slip amplitudes ('GPSlip' algorithm). The corresponding back-projection relations were empirically derived from a suite of 3D waveform simulations. We are currently testing our approach in southern California (both real-time and offline), although not yet included in the current distribution of ShakeAlert. RTK/PPP(AR) solutions from the RTNet software at USGS Pasadena currently provide 1 Hz real-time position times series at ~100 GPS sensor locations. Output is in openly available in JSON format. We and UNAVCO have tested onsite (in-receiver) PPP(AR) processing using Trimble NetR9 receivers with RTX & GLONASS options enabled, of which Caltech has recently purchased 41 new units. These special GPS receivers will provide 5 Hz position and velocity streams. We will deliver the GPS RTX output (in GSOF format) into the EEW system (in Earthworm tracebuf2 format). The new receivers are to be installed at 'zipper array' stations of the SCSN in upcoming months. In addition, we have developed a framework for end-to-end offline testing with archived and simulated waveform data.

Development and Use of Early Warning Systems. SLDS Spotlight

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Curtin, Jenny; Hurwitch, Bill; Olson, Tom

2012-01-01

An early warning system is a data-based tool that helps predict which students are on the right path towards eventual graduation or other grade-appropriate goals. Through such systems, stakeholders at the school and district levels can view data from a wide range of perspectives and gain a deeper understanding of student data. This "Statewide…

Vantage point - Early warning flaws.

PubMed

Swinden, Donna

2014-08-28

USING AN EARLY warning score (EWS) system should improve the detection of acutely deteriorating patients. Under such a system, a score is allocated to each of six physiological measurements including respiratory rate and oxygen saturations, which are aggregated to produce an overall score. An aggregated score of seven or higher prompts nursing staff to refer a patient for emergency assessment.

Early Warning Indicator System: Supporting K-12 Educators in the Identification, Support, and Monitoring of At-Risk Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2016

2016-01-01

A rise in data availability gives educators the opportunity to tailor instructional practices and interventions to student needs and invest resources in areas where students require the most support. Massachusetts developed the Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS), which synthesizes the wealth of student data available in the state, including…

Regional drought early warning, impacts, and assessment for water and agriculture in the lower Rio Grande basin, 2016-2017

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

USDA’s Southern Plains Climate Hub (SPCH) and the University of Oklahoma’s Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) contributed to a broad, multi-partnered effort to provide drought early warning information to water and agriculture management interests in the middle and lower Rio Grande ba...

A Practitioner's Guide to Implementing Early Warning Systems. REL 2015-056

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frazelle, Sarah; Nagel, Aisling

2015-01-01

To stem the tide of students dropping out, many schools and districts are turning to early warning systems (EWS) that signal whether a student is at risk of not graduating from high school. While some research exists about establishing these systems, there is little information about the actual implementation strategies that are being used across…

An Analysis of the 1992 New Jersey Grade 8 Early Warning Test.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tambini, Robert F.

The quality and the effectiveness of the 1992 New Jersey Grade 8 Early Warning Test (NJEWT) are assessed. Standardized tests possess clear advantages for educators, especially in the case of administration and scoring, but there are clear disadvantages as well, including the possibility of bias. Four criteria are applied to the NJEWT: adequacy,…

Overview and highlights of Early Warning and Crop Condition Assessment project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boatwright, G. O.; Whitehead, V. S.

1985-01-01

Work of the Early Warning and Crop Condition Assessment (EW/CCA) project, one of eight projects in the Agriculture and Resources Inventory Surveys Through Aerospace Remote Sensing (AgRISTARS), is reviewed. Its mission, to develop and test remote sensing techniques that enhance operational methodologies for crop condition assessment, was in response to initiatives issued by the Secretary of Agriculture. Meteorologically driven crop stress indicator models have been developed or modified for wheat, maize, grain sorghum, and soybeans. These models provide early warning alerts of potential or actual crop stresses due to water deficits, adverse temperatures, and water excess that could delay planting or harvesting operations. Recommendations are given for future research involving vegetative index numbers and the NOAA and Landsat satellites.

Majalaya Flood Early Warning System: A Community Based Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Junnaedhi, I. Dewa Gede A.; Riawan, Edi; Suwarman, Rusmawan; Wahyu Hadi, Tri; Lubis, Atika; Joko Trilaksono, Nurjanna; Rahayu, Rahmawati; Kombara, PrawiraYudha; Waskito, Riki; Ekalaya Oktora, Hendra; Supriatna, Rahmat; Anugrah, Aan; Haq Mudzakkir, Abdul; Setiawan, Wawar

2017-06-01

Majalaya, a small city to the south-east of Bandung, was hit by flood almost every year. From January to June 2016, up to 5 severe floods and 4 moderate floods have hit this city. Although it usually not last for long, but the flood stream could be very rapid, thus have a high potential to bring damage to the city. Starting from 2012, ITB through Weather and Climate Prediction Laboratory (WCPL) has support Garda Caah (flood watcher society in Majalaya) with weather prediction system. In the late 2015, ITB also enhancing Garda Caah observation system by installing several Automatic Weather Station (AWS) and Automatic Water Level Recorder (AWLR) throughout Majalaya upstream area. The instruments itself was supported by a re-insurance company MAIPARK and some was built in house by WCPL. The collaboration between ITB, Garda Caah, and Majalaya citizens has been proved to be mutually beneficial. Garda Caah could get more accurate and faster observation and enhanced knowledge, thus could provide a better flood warning for Majalaya citizens. On the other hand, ITB could get data from observation network, with more efficient way to maintain observation instruments as it done by Garda Caah and other Majalaya citizens.

Development of a national Flash flood warning system in France using the AIGA method: first results and main issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; Demargne, Julie; de Saint-Aubin, Céline; Garandeau, Léa; Janet, Bruno; Saint-Martin, Clotilde; Fouchier, Catherine

2016-04-01

Developing a national flash flood (FF) warning system is an ambitious and difficult task. On one hand it rises huge expectations from exposed populations and authorities since induced damages are considerable (ie 20 casualties in the recent October 2015 flood at the French Riviera). But on the other hand, many practical and scientific issues have to be addressed and limitations should be clearly stated. The FF warning system to be implemented by 2016 in France by the SCHAPI (French national service in charge of flood forecasting) will be based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014). The AIGA method has been experimented in real time in the south of France in the RHYTMME project (http://rhytmme.irstea.fr). It consists in comparing discharges generated by a simple conceptual hourly hydrologic model run at a 1-km² resolution to reference flood quantiles of different return periods, at any point along the river network. The hydrologic model ingests operational rainfall radar-gauge products from Météo-France. Model calibration was based on ~700 hydrometric stations over the 2002-2015 period and then hourly discharges were computed at ~76 000 catchment outlets, with areas ranging from 10 to 3 500 km², over the last 19 years. This product makes it possible to calculate reference flood quantiles at each outlet. The on-going evaluation of the FF warnings is currently made at two levels: in a 'classical' way, using discharges available at the hydrometric stations, but also in a more 'exploratory' way, by comparing past flood reports and warnings issued by the system over the 76 000 catchment outlets. The interest of the last method is that it better fit the system objectives since it is designed to monitor small ungauged catchments. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D, .Pansu, J, .Arnaud, P. (2014). Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques, 59(7), 1390-1402. doi: 10.1080/02626667.2014.923970

An analysis of the early-warning system in emerging markets for reducing the financial crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Xiangguang; Song, Xiaozhong

2009-07-01

The large number of financial crises in emerging markets over the past ten years has left many observers, both from academia and financial institutions, puzzled by an apparent lack of homogenous causal relations between endogenous economic variables and the bursting of large financial shocks. The frequency of financial crises in the last 20 years can be attributed to the lack of a comprehensive theory of financial regulation to guide policy makers. Existing theories fail to define the range of regulatory models, the causes of regulatory failure, and how to measure and prevent it. Faulty design of regulatory models, and the lack of ongoing performance monitoring incorporating early warning systems, is disrupting economic and social development. The main aim of this article is to propose an early warning system (EWS) which purposes issuing warning signal against the possible financial crisis in the emerging market, and makes the emerging market survived the first wave of the crisis be able to continue their operation in the following years.

An 'Early Warning System' for the prevention of dredging potential impacts on sensitive areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piermattei, Viviana; Martellucci, Riccardo; Pierattini, Alberto; Bonamano, Simone; Paladini de Mendoza, Francesco; Albani, Marta; Stefanì, Chiara; Madonia, Alice; Fersini, Giorgio; Marcelli, Marco

2016-04-01

Coastal marine ecosystems are increasingly subject to multiple pressures and stressors produced by the effects of human activities. Intense and frequent disturbances which affect marine environment can derive from dredging activity, which is a fundamental management for most ports and harbours. The potential environmental effects of dredging procedures are generally due to the excavation of material from the sea bottom and the relocation elsewhere for disposal, overflow from the dredger and loss of material from pipelines during transport. Depending on the location and the intensity of these activities the marine environment, particularly sensitive areas, may be affected by dredging. The main environmental effects can be associated with suspended sediments and increases in turbidity into the water column, which can have adverse effects on marine animals and plants by reducing light penetration and by physical disturbance. For this reason it is fundamental to implement a real time monitoring system to control and prevent negative effects, enabling a rapid response to adverse water quality conditions and a fast activation of mitigation procedures, in agreement with all the reference authorities. In this work we present the development of an innovative 'Early Warning System' based on fixed stations, ad hoc in situ surveys and forecasting models, which was applied to a dredging activity carried out in the Gulf of Gaeta (Latium, Italy). It represents an extension of the C-CEMS (Civitavecchia Coastal Environmental Monitoring System) network, which is operative in the Tyrrhenian sea since 2005.

Landslide monitoring using terrestrial laser scanner and robotic total station in Rancabali, West Java (Indonesia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gumilar, Irwan; Fattah, Alif; Abidin, Hasanuddin Z.; Sadarviana, Vera; Putri, Nabila S. E.; Kristianto

2017-07-01

West Java is one of the provinces in Indonesia which is prone to landslide. Over the past few years, landslides in this area have resulted in a large number of victims. One of the areas in West Java with the highest risk of landslide occurrence is Rancabali Ciwidey. In general, the morphology around the landslide location is steep hills, with the slope > 30° and the altitude between 1550 - 1865 m above sea level. Several indications of ground movements can be seen in the form of slumps and cracks on the village roads and tea plantation, as well as slanting trees and electricity poles. The ground movement monitoring in this area is necessary for disaster mitigation. Several methods that can be used to monitor the landslide are using Terrestrial Laser Scanner (TLS) and robotic total station. This research aims is monitoring the landslide using these methods. The methodology used in this research is by obtaining the scanning data using TLS C-10 and Robotic total station MS05 measurements to obtain the coordinates of monitoring point clouds and prism. The TLS software that we used are Cyclone 8.1 and Maptek I-Site. For robotic total station, the software that we used is MSP software. These method hopefully can be used for early warning system of landslide in Rancabali area.

Packaging: a grounded theory of how to report physiological deterioration effectively.

PubMed

Andrews, Tom; Waterman, Heather

2005-12-01

The aim of this paper is to present a study of how ward-based staff use vital signs and the Early Warning Score to package physiological deterioration effectively to ensure successful referral to doctors. The literature tends to emphasize the identification of premonitory signs in predicting physiological deterioration. However, these signs lack sensitivity and specificity, and there is evidence that nurses rely on subjective and subtle indicators. The Early Warning Score was developed for the early detection of deterioration and has been widely implemented, with various modifications. The data reported here form part of a larger study investigating the practical problems faced by general ward staff in detecting physiological deterioration. During 2002, interviews and observations were carried out using a grounded theory approach, and a total of 44 participants were interviewed (30 nurses, 7 doctors and 7 health care support workers). Participants reported that quantifiable evidence is the most effective means of referring patients to doctors, and the Early Warning Score achieves this by improving communication between professionals. Rather than reporting changes in individual vital signs, the Early Warning Score effectively packages them together, resulting in a much more convincing referral. It gives nurses a precise, concise and unambiguous means of communicating deterioration, and confidence in using medical language. Thus, nurses are empowered and doctors can focus quickly on identified problems. The Early Warning Score leads to successful referral of patients by providing an agreed framework for assessment, increasing confidence in the use of medical language and empowering nurses. It is essential that nurses and nursing students are supported in its use and in developing confidence in using medical language by continued emphasis on physiology and pathophysiology in the nursing curriculum.

Which System Variables Carry Robust Early Signs of Upcoming Phase Transition? An Ecological Example.

PubMed

Negahbani, Ehsan; Steyn-Ross, D Alistair; Steyn-Ross, Moira L; Aguirre, Luis A

2016-01-01

Growth of critical fluctuations prior to catastrophic state transition is generally regarded as a universal phenomenon, providing a valuable early warning signal in dynamical systems. Using an ecological fisheries model of three populations (juvenile prey J, adult prey A and predator P), a recent study has reported silent early warning signals obtained from P and A populations prior to saddle-node (SN) bifurcation, and thus concluded that early warning signals are not universal. By performing a full eigenvalue analysis of the same system we demonstrate that while J and P populations undergo SN bifurcation, A does not jump to a new state, so it is not expected to carry early warning signs. In contrast with the previous study, we capture a significant increase in the noise-induced fluctuations in the P population, but only on close approach to the bifurcation point; it is not clear why the P variance initially shows a decaying trend. Here we resolve this puzzle using observability measures from control theory. By computing the observability coefficient for the system from the recordings of each population considered one at a time, we are able to quantify their ability to describe changing internal dynamics. We demonstrate that precursor fluctuations are best observed using only the J variable, and also P variable if close to transition. Using observability analysis we are able to describe why a poorly observable variable (P) has poor forecasting capabilities although a full eigenvalue analysis shows that this variable undergoes a bifurcation. We conclude that observability analysis provides complementary information to identify the variables carrying early-warning signs about impending state transition.

A triangular climate-based decision model to forecast crop anomalies in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guimarães Nobre, G.; Davenport, F.; Veldkamp, T.; Jongman, B.; Funk, C. C.; Husak, G. J.; Ward, P.; Aerts, J.

2017-12-01

By the end of 2017, the world is expected to experience unprecedented demands for food assistance where, across 45 countries, some 81 million people will face a food security crisis. Prolonged droughts in Eastern Africa are playing a major role in these crises. To mitigate famine risk and save lives, government bodies and international donor organisations are increasingly building up efforts to resolve conflicts and secure humanitarian relief. Disaster-relief and financing organizations traditionally focus on emergency response, providing aid after an extreme drought event, instead of taking actions in advance based on early warning. One of the reasons for this approach is that the seasonal risk information provided by early warning systems is often considered highly uncertain. Overcoming the reluctance to act based on early warnings greatly relies on understanding the risk of acting in vain, and assessing the cost-effectiveness of early actions. This research develops a triangular climate-based decision model for multiple seasonal time-scales to forecast strong anomalies in crop yield shortages in Kenya using Casual Discovery Algorithms and Fast and Frugal Decision Trees. This Triangular decision model (1) estimates the causality and strength of the relationship between crop yields and hydro climatological predictors (extracted from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network's data archive) during the crop growing season; (2) provides probabilistic forecasts of crop yield shortages in multiple time scales before the harvesting season; and (3) evaluates the cost-effectiveness of different financial mechanisms to respond to early warning indicators of crop yield shortages obtained from the model. Furthermore, we reflect on how such a model complements and advances the current state-of-art FEWS Net system, and examine its potential application to improve the management of agricultural risks in Kenya.

Tsunamis hazard assessment and monitoring for the Back Sea area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partheniu, Raluca; Ionescu, Constantin; Constantin, Angela; Moldovan, Iren; Diaconescu, Mihail; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Radulian, Mircea; Toader, Victorin

2016-04-01

NIEP has improved lately its researches regarding tsunamis in the Black Sea. As part of the routine earthquake and tsunami monitoring activity, the first tsunami early-warning system in the Black Sea has been implemented in 2013 and is active during these last years. In order to monitor the seismic activity of the Black Sea, NIEP is using a total number of 114 real time stations and 2 seismic arrays, 18 of the stations being located in Dobrogea area, area situated in the vicinity of the Romanian Black Sea shore line. Moreover, there is a data exchange with the Black Sea surrounding countries involving the acquisition of real-time data for 17 stations from Bulgaria, Turkey, Georgia and Ukraine. This improves the capability of the Romanian Seismic Network to monitor and more accurately locate the earthquakes occurred in the Black Sea area. For tsunamis monitoring and warning, a number of 6 sea level monitoring stations, 1 infrasound barometer, 3 offshore marine buoys and 7 GPS/GNSS stations are installed in different locations along and near the Romanian shore line. In the framework of ASTARTE project, few objectives regarding the seismic hazard and tsunami waves height assessment for the Black Sea were accomplished. The seismic hazard estimation was based on statistical studies of the seismic sources and their characteristics, compiled using different seismic catalogues. Two probabilistic methods were used for the evaluation of the seismic hazard, the Cornell method, based on the Gutenberg Richter distribution parameters, and Gumbel method, based on extremes statistic. The results show maximum values of possible magnitudes and their recurrence periods, for each seismic source. Using the Tsunami Analysis Tool (TAT) software, a set of tsunami modelling scenarios have been generated for Shabla area, the seismic source that could mostly affect the Romanian shore. These simulations are structured in a database, in order to set maximum possible tsunami waves that could be generated and to establish minimum magnitude values that could trigger tsunamis in this area. Some particularities of Shabla source are: past observed magnitudes > 7 and a recurrence period of 175 years. Some other important objectives of NIEP are to continue the monitoring of the seismic activity of the Black Sea, to improve the data base of the tsunami simulations for this area, near real time fault plane solution estimations used for the warning system, and to add new seismic, GPS/GNSS and sea level monitoring equipment to the existing network. Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by the FP7 FP7-ENV2013 6.4-3 "Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction For Tsunamis in Europe" (ASTARTE) Project 603839/2013 and PNII, Capacity Module III ASTARTE RO Project 268/2014. This work was partially supported by the "Global Tsunami Informal Monitoring Service - 2" (GTIMS2) Project, JRC/IPR/2015/G.2/2006/NC 260286, Ref. Ares (2015)1440256 - 01.04.2015.