Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models: the EDuMaP method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvello, M.; Piciullo, L.

2015-10-01

The paper proposes the evaluation of the technical performance of a regional landslide early warning system by means of an original approach, called EDuMaP method, comprising three successive steps: identification and analysis of the Events (E), i.e. landslide events and warning events derived from available landslides and warnings databases; definition and computation of a Duration Matrix (DuMa), whose elements report the time associated with the occurrence of landslide events in relation to the occurrence of warning events, in their respective classes; evaluation of the early warning model Performance (P) by means of performance criteria and indicators applied to the duration matrix. During the first step, the analyst takes into account the features of the warning model by means of ten input parameters, which are used to identify and classify landslide and warning events according to their spatial and temporal characteristics. In the second step, the analyst computes a time-based duration matrix having a number of rows and columns equal to the number of classes defined for the warning and landslide events, respectively. In the third step, the analyst computes a series of model performance indicators derived from a set of performance criteria, which need to be defined by considering, once again, the features of the warning model. The proposed method is based on a framework clearly distinguishing between local and regional landslide early warning systems as well as among correlation laws, warning models and warning systems. The applicability, potentialities and limitations of the EDuMaP method are tested and discussed using real landslides and warnings data from the municipal early warning system operating in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil).

A national survey of obstetric early warning systems in the United Kingdom: five years on.

PubMed

Isaacs, R A; Wee, M Y K; Bick, D E; Beake, S; Sheppard, Z A; Thomas, S; Hundley, V; Smith, G B; van Teijlingen, E; Thomas, P W

2014-07-01

The Confidential Enquiries into Maternal Deaths in the UK have recommended obstetric early warning systems for early identification of clinical deterioration to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality. This survey explored early warning systems currently used by maternity units in the UK. An electronic questionnaire was sent to all 205 lead obstetric anaesthetists under the auspices of the Obstetric Anaesthetists' Association, generating 130 (63%) responses. All respondents reported use of an obstetric early warning system, compared with 19% in a similar survey in 2007. Respondents agreed that the six most important physiological parameters to record were respiratory rate, heart rate, temperature, systolic and diastolic blood pressure and oxygen saturation. One hundred and eighteen (91%) lead anaesthetists agreed that early warning systems helped to prevent obstetric morbidity. Staffing pressures were perceived as the greatest barrier to their use, and improved audit, education and training for healthcare professionals were identified as priority areas. © 2014 The Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland.

Early warning signals of regime shifts in coupled human–environment systems

PubMed Central

Bauch, Chris T.; Sigdel, Ram; Pharaon, Joe; Anand, Madhur

2016-01-01

In complex systems, a critical transition is a shift in a system’s dynamical regime from its current state to a strongly contrasting state as external conditions move beyond a tipping point. These transitions are often preceded by characteristic early warning signals such as increased system variability. However, early warning signals in complex, coupled human–environment systems (HESs) remain little studied. Here, we compare critical transitions and their early warning signals in a coupled HES model to an equivalent environment model uncoupled from the human system. We parameterize the HES model, using social and ecological data from old-growth forests in Oregon. We find that the coupled HES exhibits a richer variety of dynamics and regime shifts than the uncoupled environment system. Moreover, the early warning signals in the coupled HES can be ambiguous, heralding either an era of ecosystem conservationism or collapse of both forest ecosystems and conservationism. The presence of human feedback in the coupled HES can also mitigate the early warning signal, making it more difficult to detect the oncoming regime shift. We furthermore show how the coupled HES can be “doomed to criticality”: Strategic human interactions cause the system to remain perpetually in the vicinity of a collapse threshold, as humans become complacent when the resource seems protected but respond rapidly when it is under immediate threat. We conclude that the opportunities, benefits, and challenges of modeling regime shifts and early warning signals in coupled HESs merit further research. PMID:27815533

Massachusetts Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS). "Technical Descriptions of Risk Model Development": Early and Late Elementary Age Groupings (Grades 1-6)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2013

2013-01-01

The Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (Department) created the grades 1-12 Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS) in response to district interest in the Early Warning Indicator Index (EWII) that the Department previously created for rising grade 9 students. Districts shared that the EWII data were helpful, but also…

How do I know if I’ve improved my continental scale flood early warning system?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cloke, Hannah L.; Pappenberger, Florian; Smith, Paul J.; Wetterhall, Fredrik

2017-04-01

Flood early warning systems mitigate damages and loss of life and are an economically efficient way of enhancing disaster resilience. The use of continental scale flood early warning systems is rapidly growing. The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) is a pan-European flood early warning system forced by a multi-model ensemble of numerical weather predictions. Responses to scientific and technical changes can be complex in these computationally expensive continental scale systems, and improvements need to be tested by evaluating runs of the whole system. It is demonstrated here that forecast skill is not correlated with the value of warnings. In order to tell if the system has been improved an evaluation strategy is required that considers both forecast skill and warning value. The combination of a multi-forcing ensemble of EFAS flood forecasts is evaluated with a new skill-value strategy. The full multi-forcing ensemble is recommended for operational forecasting, but, there are spatial variations in the optimal forecast combination. Results indicate that optimizing forecasts based on value rather than skill alters the optimal forcing combination and the forecast performance. Also indicated is that model diversity and ensemble size are both important in achieving best overall performance. The use of several evaluation measures that consider both skill and value is strongly recommended when considering improvements to early warning systems.

A SDMS Model: Early Warning Coordination Centres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos-Reyes, Jaime

2010-05-01

Following the tsunami disaster in 2004, the General Secretary of the United Nations (UN) Kofi Annan called for a global early warning system for all hazards and for all communities. He also requested the ISDR (International Strategy fort Disaster Reduction) and its UN partners to conduct a global survey of capacities, gaps and opportunities in relation to early warning systems. The produced report, "Global survey of Early Warning Systems", concluded that there are many gaps and shortcomings and that much progress has been made on early warning systems and great capabilities are available around the world. However, it may be argued that an early warning system (EWS) may not be enough to prevent fatalities due to a natural hazard; i.e., it should be seen as part of a ‘wider' or total system. Furthermore, an EWS may work very well when assessed individually but it is not clear whether it will contribute to accomplish the purpose of the ‘total disaster management system'; i.e., to prevent fatalities. For instance, a regional EWS may only work if it is well co-ordinated with the local warning and emergency response systems that ensure that the warning is received, communicated and acted upon by the potentially affected communities. It may be argued that without these local measures being in place, a regional EWS will have little impact in saving lives. Researchers argued that unless people are warned in remote areas, the technology is useless; for instance McGuire [5] argues that: "I have no doubt that the technical element of the warning system will work very well,"…"But there has to be an effective and efficient communications cascade from the warning centre to the fisherman on the beach and his family and the bar owners." Similarly, McFadden [6] states that: "There's no point in spending all the money on a fancy monitoring and a fancy analysis system unless we can make sure the infrastructure for the broadcast system is there,"… "That's going to require a lot of work. If it's a tsunami, you've got to get it down to the last Joe on the beach. This is the stuff that is really very hard." Given the above, the paper argues that there is a need for a systemic approach to early warning centres. Systemic means looking upon things as a system; systemic means seeing pattern and inter-relationship within a complex whole; i.e., to see events as products of the working of a system. System may be defined as a whole which is made of parts and relationships. Given this, ‘failure' may be seen as the product of a system and, within that, see death/injury/property loss etc. as results of the working of systems. This paper proposes a preliminary model of ‘early warning coordination centres' (EWCC); it should be highlighted that an EWCC is a subsystem of the Systemic Disaster Management System (SDMS) model.

ShakeAlert—An earthquake early warning system for the United States west coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkett, Erin R.; Given, Douglas D.; Jones, Lucile M.

2014-08-29

Earthquake early warning systems use earthquake science and the technology of monitoring systems to alert devices and people when shaking waves generated by an earthquake are expected to arrive at their location. The seconds to minutes of advance warning can allow people and systems to take actions to protect life and property from destructive shaking. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with several partners, has been working to develop an early warning system for the United States. ShakeAlert, a system currently under development, is designed to cover the West Coast States of California, Oregon, and Washington.

Landslide risk mitigation by means of early warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvello, Michele

2017-04-01

Among the many options available to mitigate landslide risk, early warning systems may be used where, in specific circumstances, the risk to life increases above tolerable levels. A coherent framework to classify and analyse landslide early warning systems (LEWS) is herein presented. Once the objectives of an early warning strategy are defined depending on the scale of analysis and the type of landslides to address, the process of designing and managing a LEWS should synergically employ technical and social skills. A classification scheme for the main components of LEWSs is proposed for weather-induced landslides. The scheme is based on a clear distinction among: i) the landslide model, i.e. a functional relationship between weather characteristics and landslide events considering the geotechnical, geomorphological and hydro-geological characterization of the area as well as an adequate monitoring strategy; ii) the warning model, i.e. the landslide model plus procedures to define the warning events and to issue the warnings; iii) the warning system, i.e. the warning model plus warning dissemination procedures, communication and education tools, strategies for community involvement and emergency plans. Each component of a LEWS is related to a number of actors involved with their deployment, operational activities and management. For instance, communication and education, community involvement and emergency plans are all significantly influenced by people's risk perception and by operational aspects system managers need to address in cooperation with scientists.

Studying the response of drivers against different collision warning systems: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muzammel, M.; Yusoff, M. Zuki; Malik, A. Saeed; Mohamad Saad, M. Naufal; Meriaudeau, F.

2017-03-01

The number of vehicle accidents is rapidly increasing and causing significant economic losses in many countries. According to the World Health Organization, road accidents will become the fifth major cause of death by the year 2030. To minimize these accidents different types of collision warning systems have been proposed for motor vehicle drivers. These systems can early detect and warn the drivers about the potential danger, up to a certain accuracy. Many researchers study the effectiveness of these systems by using different methods, including Electroencephalography (EEG). From the literature review, it has been observed that, these systems increase the drivers' response and can help to minimize the accidents that may occur due to drivers unconsciousness. For these collision warning systems, tactile early warnings are found more effective as compared to the auditory and visual early warnings. This review also highlights the areas, where further research can be performed to fully analyze the collision warning system. For example, some contradictions are found among researchers, about these systems' performance for drivers within different age groups. Similarly, most of the EEG studies focus on the front collision warning systems and only give beep sound to alert the drivers. Therefore, EEG study can be performed for the rear end collision warning systems, against proper auditory warning messages which indicate the types of hazards. This EEG study will help to design more friendly collision warning system and may save many lives.

Big data managing in a landslide early warning system: experience from a ground-based interferometric radar application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Intrieri, Emanuele; Bardi, Federica; Fanti, Riccardo; Gigli, Giovanni; Fidolini, Francesco; Casagli, Nicola; Costanzo, Sandra; Raffo, Antonio; Di Massa, Giuseppe; Capparelli, Giovanna; Versace, Pasquale

2017-10-01

A big challenge in terms or landslide risk mitigation is represented by increasing the resiliency of society exposed to the risk. Among the possible strategies with which to reach this goal, there is the implementation of early warning systems. This paper describes a procedure to improve early warning activities in areas affected by high landslide risk, such as those classified as critical infrastructures for their central role in society. This research is part of the project LEWIS (Landslides Early Warning Integrated System): An Integrated System for Landslide Monitoring, Early Warning and Risk Mitigation along Lifelines. LEWIS is composed of a susceptibility assessment methodology providing information for single points and areal monitoring systems, a data transmission network and a data collecting and processing center (DCPC), where readings from all monitoring systems and mathematical models converge and which sets the basis for warning and intervention activities. The aim of this paper is to show how logistic issues linked to advanced monitoring techniques, such as big data transfer and storing, can be dealt with compatibly with an early warning system. Therefore, we focus on the interaction between an areal monitoring tool (a ground-based interferometric radar) and the DCPC. By converting complex data into ASCII strings and through appropriate data cropping and average, and by implementing an algorithm for line-of-sight correction, we managed to reduce the data daily output without compromising the capability for performing.

Design and internal validation of an obstetric early warning score: secondary analysis of the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre Case Mix Programme database.

PubMed

Carle, C; Alexander, P; Columb, M; Johal, J

2013-04-01

We designed and internally validated an aggregate weighted early warning scoring system specific to the obstetric population that has the potential for use in the ward environment. Direct obstetric admissions from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre's Case Mix Programme Database were randomly allocated to model development (n = 2240) or validation (n = 2200) sets. Physiological variables collected during the first 24 h of critical care admission were analysed. Logistic regression analysis for mortality in the model development set was initially used to create a statistically based early warning score. The statistical score was then modified to create a clinically acceptable early warning score. Important features of this clinical obstetric early warning score are that the variables are weighted according to their statistical importance, a surrogate for the FI O2 /Pa O2 relationship is included, conscious level is assessed using a simplified alert/not alert variable, and the score, trigger thresholds and response are consistent with the new non-obstetric National Early Warning Score system. The statistical and clinical early warning scores were internally validated using the validation set. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.995 (95% CI 0.992-0.998) for the statistical score and 0.957 (95% CI 0.923-0.991) for the clinical score. Pre-existing empirically designed early warning scores were also validated in the same way for comparison. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.955 (95% CI 0.922-0.988) for Swanton et al.'s Modified Early Obstetric Warning System, 0.937 (95% CI 0.884-0.991) for the obstetric early warning score suggested in the 2003-2005 Report on Confidential Enquiries into Maternal Deaths in the UK, and 0.973 (95% CI 0.957-0.989) for the non-obstetric National Early Warning Score. This highlights that the new clinical obstetric early warning score has an excellent ability to discriminate survivors from non-survivors in this critical care data set. Further work is needed to validate our new clinical early warning score externally in the obstetric ward environment. Anaesthesia © 2013 The Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland.

Forests and Phenology: Designing the Early Warning System to Understand Forest Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierce, T.; Phillips, M. B.; Hargrove, W. W.; Dobson, G.; Hicks, J.; Hutchins, M.; Lichtenstein, K.

2010-12-01

Vegetative phenology is the study of plant development and changes with the seasons, such as the greening-up and browning-down of forests, and how these events are influenced by variations in climate. A National Phenology Data Set, based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite images covering 2002 through 2009, is now available from work by NASA, the US Forest Service, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This new data set provides an easily interpretable product useful for detecting changes to the landscape due to long-term factors such as climate change, as well as finding areas affected by short-term forest threats such as insects or disease. The Early Warning System (EWS) is a toolset being developed by the US Forest Service and the University of North Carolina-Asheville to support distribution and use of the National Phenology Data Set. The Early Warning System will help research scientists, US Forest Service personnel, forest and natural resources managers, decision makers, and the public in the use of phenology data to better understand unexpected change within our nation’s forests. These changes could have multiple natural sources such as insects, disease, or storm damage, or may be due to human-induced events, like thinning, harvest, forest conversion to agriculture, or residential and commercial use. The primary goal of the Early Warning System is to provide a seamless integration between monitoring, detection, early warning and prediction of these forest disturbances as observed through phenological data. The system consists of PC and web-based components that are structured to support four user stages of increasing knowledge and data sophistication. Building Literacy: This stage of the Early Warning System educates potential users about the system, why the system should be used, and the fundamentals about the data the system uses. The channels for this education include a website, interactive tutorials, pamphlets, and other technology transfer methodologies. Achieving Context and Meaning: To provide deeper meaning and knowledge about the Early Warning System to users, this stage of the Early Warning System provides more information about specific examples of disturbances seen in the phenological data, as well the spatial and temporal context to these disturbances. The main components of this stage are specific case studies of forest disturbances. Accessing Data: This component of the Early Warning System includes products for research scientists, the aerial detection survey sketch mapper community, and others who will access and analyze the Early Warning System and phenological data. Products and data will be available through online GIS mashups and WMS and KML downloads. Utilizing Services: The final stage of the Early Warning System supports the analysis of phenological data and serves the results to those end users, including forest managers, the forest industry, and the public, who need to locate past, present, and potential forest disturbances. The main components of this stage include data-driven web tools, automated analysis processes, and end user training programs.

[Evaluation and analysis of monitoring and early warning functions of the occupational disease reporting system in China].

PubMed

Zhu, Xiaojun; Li, Tao; Liu, Mengxuan

2015-06-01

To evaluate the monitoring and early warning functions of the occupational disease reporting system right now in China, and to analyze their influencing factors. An improved audit tool (ODIT) was used to score the monitoring and early warning functions with a total score of 10. The nine indices were completeness of information on the reporting form, coverage of the reporting system, accessibility of criteria or guidelines for diagnosis, education and training for physicians, completeness of the reporting system, statistical methods, investigation of special cases, release of monitoring information, and release of early warning information. According to the evaluation, the occupational disease reporting system in China had a score of 5.5 in monitoring existing occupational diseases with a low score for release of monitoring information; the reporting system had a score of 6.5 in early warning of newly occurring occupational diseases with low scores for education and training for physicians as well as completeness of the reporting system. The occupational disease reporting system in China still does not have full function in monitoring and early warning. It is the education and participation of physicians from general hospitals in the diagnosis and treatment of occupational diseases and suspected occupational diseases that need to be enhanced. In addition, the problem of monitoring the incidence of occupational diseases needs to be solved as soon as possible.

Web-based Tsunami Early Warning System with instant Tsunami Propagation Calculations in the GPU Cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammitzsch, M.; Spazier, J.; Reißland, S.

2014-12-01

Usually, tsunami early warning and mitigation systems (TWS or TEWS) are based on several software components deployed in a client-server based infrastructure. The vast majority of systems importantly include desktop-based clients with a graphical user interface (GUI) for the operators in early warning centers. However, in times of cloud computing and ubiquitous computing the use of concepts and paradigms, introduced by continuously evolving approaches in information and communications technology (ICT), have to be considered even for early warning systems (EWS). Based on the experiences and the knowledge gained in three research projects - 'German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System' (GITEWS), 'Distant Early Warning System' (DEWS), and 'Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises' (TRIDEC) - new technologies are exploited to implement a cloud-based and web-based prototype to open up new prospects for EWS. This prototype, named 'TRIDEC Cloud', merges several complementary external and in-house cloud-based services into one platform for automated background computation with graphics processing units (GPU), for web-mapping of hazard specific geospatial data, and for serving relevant functionality to handle, share, and communicate threat specific information in a collaborative and distributed environment. The prototype in its current version addresses tsunami early warning and mitigation. The integration of GPU accelerated tsunami simulation computations have been an integral part of this prototype to foster early warning with on-demand tsunami predictions based on actual source parameters. However, the platform is meant for researchers around the world to make use of the cloud-based GPU computation to analyze other types of geohazards and natural hazards and react upon the computed situation picture with a web-based GUI in a web browser at remote sites. The current website is an early alpha version for demonstration purposes to give the concept a whirl and to shape science's future. Further functionality, improvements and possible profound changes have to implemented successively based on the users' evolving needs.

Impact of social preparedness on flood early warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girons Lopez, M.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Seibert, J.

2017-01-01

Flood early warning systems play a major role in the disaster risk reduction paradigm as cost-effective methods to mitigate flood disaster damage. The connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social spheres of early warning systems are increasingly being considered as key aspects for successful flood mitigation. The behavior of the public and first responders during flood situations, determined by their preparedness, is heavily influenced by many behavioral traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or even denial. In this study, we use the recency of flood experiences as a proxy for social preparedness to assess its impact on the efficiency of flood early warning systems through a simple stylized model and implemented this model using a simple mathematical description. The main findings, which are based on synthetic data, point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially in circumstances where the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. Furthermore, we found that efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings provide important insights into the role of social preparedness that may help guide decision-making in the field of flood early warning systems.

[Tourism ecological security early warning of Zhangjiajie, China based on the improved TOPSIS method and the grey GM (1,1)model].

PubMed

Xu, Mei; Liu, Chun la; Li, Dan; Zhong, Xiao Lin

2017-11-01

Tourism ecological security early warning is of great significance both to the coordination of ecological environment protection and tourism industry rapid development in tourism destination, and the sustainable and healthy development of regional social and economy. Firstly, based on the DPSIR model, the tourism ecological security early warning index system of Zhangjiajie was constructed from 5 aspects, which were driving force, pressure, state, impact and response. Then, by using the improved TOPSIS method, the tourism ecological security situation of Zhangjiajie from 2001 to 2014 was analyzed. Lastly, by using the grey GM (1,1) model, the tourism ecological security evolution trend of 2015-2020 was predicted. The results indicated that, on the whole, the close degree of Zhangjiajie's tourism ecological security showed a slightly upward trend during 2001-2014, the warning degree was the moderate warning. In terms of each subsystem, warning degree of the driving force system and the pressure system of Zhangjiajie's tourism ecological secu-rity were on the rise, which evolved from light warning to heavy warning; warning degree of the state system and the impact system had not changed so much, and had been in the moderate warning; warning degree of the response system was on the decline, which changed from huge warning to no warning during 2001-2014. According to the current development trend, the close degree of Zhangjiajie's tourism ecological security would rise further in 2015-2020, and the warning degree would turn from moderate warning into light warning, but the task of coordinating the relationship between tourism development and ecological construction and environmental protection would be still arduous.

Massachusetts Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS). "Technical Descriptions of Risk Model Development": Middle and High School Age Groupings (Grades 7-12)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2013

2013-01-01

The Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (Department) created the grades 1-12 Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS) in response to district interest in the Early Warning Indicator Index (EWII) that the Department previously created for rising grade 9 students. Districts shared that the EWII data were helpful, but also…

Towards a certification process for tsunami early warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löwe, Peter; Wächter, Jochen; Hammitzsch, Martin

2013-04-01

The natural disaster of the Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 was followed by an information catastrophe. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages in a proven workflow. A second challenge stems from the main objective of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC) Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from individual sensors, to Warning Centers within their particular end-to-end Warning System Environments, and up to federated Systems of Tsunami Warning Systems has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CeGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already, being the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS). This activity is continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). TRIDEC focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application: The technical development is based on mature system architecture models and industry standards. The use of standards already applies to the operation of individual TRIDEC reference installations and their interlinking into an integrated service infrastructure for supranational warning services. This is a first step towards best practices and service lifecycles for Early Warning Centre IT service management, including Service Level Agreements (SLA) and Service Certification. While on a global scale the integration of TEWS progresses towards Systems of Systems (SoS), there is still an absence of accredited and reliable certifications for national TEWS or regional Tsunami Early Warning Systems of Systems (TEWSoS). Concepts for TEWS operations have already been published under the guidance of the IOC, and can now be complemented by the recent research advances concerning SoS architecture. Combined with feedback from the real world, such as the NEAMwave 2012 Tsunami exercise in the Mediterranean, this can serve as a starting point to formulate initial requirements for TEWS and TEWSoS certification: Certification activities will cover the establishment of new TEWS and TEWSoS, and also both maintenance and enhancement of existing TEWS/TEWSoS. While the IOC is expected to take a central role in the development of the certification strategy, it remains to be defined which bodies will actually conduct the certification process. Certification requirements and results are likely to become a valuable information source for various target groups, ranging from national policy decision makers, government agency planners, national and local government preparedness officials, TWC staff members, Disaster Responders, the media and the insurance industry.

The Financial Benefit of Early Flood Warnings in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Parker, Dennis J.; Richardson, David; Thielen, Jutta

2015-04-01

Effective disaster risk management relies on science based solutions to close the gap between prevention and preparedness measures. The outcome of consultations on the UNIDSR post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction highlight the need for cross-border early warning systems to strengthen the preparedness phases of disaster risk management in order to save people's lives and property and reduce the overall impact of severe events. In particular, continental and global scale flood forecasting systems provide vital information to various decision makers with which early warnings of floods can be made. Here the potential monetary benefits of early flood warnings using the example of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) are calculated based on pan-European Flood damage data and calculations of potential flood damage reductions. The benefits are of the order of 400 Euro for every 1 Euro invested. Because of the uncertainties which accompany the calculation, a large sensitivity analysis is performed in order to develop an envelope of possible financial benefits. Current EFAS system skill is compared against perfect forecasts to demonstrate the importance of further improving the skill of the forecasts. Improving the response to warnings is also essential in reaping the benefits of flood early warnings.

Constructing early warning information release system in towns enterprise clean production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuwen, Huixin; He, Xueqiu; Qian, Xinming; Yuan, Mengqi

2017-08-01

China’s industry boom has not only brought unprecedented prosperity, but also caused the gradual depletion of various resources and the worsening of the natural environment. Experts admit that China is facing serious environmental problem, but they believe that they can seek a new path to overcome it through joint efforts. Early warning information release and clean production are the important concepts in addressing the imminent crisis. Early warning information release system can monitor and forecast the risk that affects the clean production. The author drawn the experiences and lessons from developed countries, combined with China’s reality, put forward countermeasures and suggestions about constructing early warning information release system in process of Chinese town-scaled enterprises clean production.

Early warning signal for interior crises in excitable systems.

PubMed

Karnatak, Rajat; Kantz, Holger; Bialonski, Stephan

2017-10-01

The ability to reliably predict critical transitions in dynamical systems is a long-standing goal of diverse scientific communities. Previous work focused on early warning signals related to local bifurcations (critical slowing down) and nonbifurcation-type transitions. We extend this toolbox and report on a characteristic scaling behavior (critical attractor growth) which is indicative of an impending global bifurcation, an interior crisis in excitable systems. We demonstrate our early warning signal in a conceptual climate model as well as in a model of coupled neurons known to exhibit extreme events. We observed critical attractor growth prior to interior crises of chaotic as well as strange-nonchaotic attractors. These observations promise to extend the classes of transitions that can be predicted via early warning signals.

Preparing for floods: flood forecasting and early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cloke, Hannah

2016-04-01

Flood forecasting and early warning has continued to stride ahead in strengthening the preparedness phases of disaster risk management, saving lives and property and reducing the overall impact of severe flood events. For example, continental and global scale flood forecasting systems such as the European Flood Awareness System and the Global Flood Awareness System provide early information about upcoming floods in real time to various decisionmakers. Studies have found that there are monetary benefits to implementing these early flood warning systems, and with the science also in place to provide evidence of benefit and hydrometeorological institutional outlooks warming to the use of probabilistic forecasts, the uptake over the last decade has been rapid and sustained. However, there are many further challenges that lie ahead to improve the science supporting flood early warning and to ensure that appropriate decisions are made to maximise flood preparedness.

Estimation for aerial detection effectiveness with cooperation efficiency factors of early-warning aircraft in early-warning detection SoS under BSC framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Feng; Hu, Xiaofeng; He, Xiaoyuan; Guo, Rui; Li, Kaiming; Yang, Lu

2017-11-01

In the military field, the performance evaluation of early-warning aircraft deployment or construction is always an important problem needing to be explored. As an effective approach of enterprise management and performance evaluation, Balanced Score Card (BSC) attracts more and more attentions and is studied more and more widely all over the world. It can also bring feasible ideas and technical approaches for studying the issue of the performance evaluation of the deployment or construction of early-warning aircraft which is the important component in early-warning detection system of systems (SoS). Therefore, the deep explored researches are carried out based on the previously research works. On the basis of the characteristics of space exploration and aerial detection effectiveness of early-warning detection SoS and the cardinal principle of BSC are analyzed simply, and the performance evaluation framework of the deployment or construction of early-warning aircraft is given, under this framework, aimed at the evaluation issue of aerial detection effectiveness of early-warning detection SoS with the cooperation efficiency factors of the early-warning aircraft and other land based radars, the evaluation indexes are further designed and the relative evaluation model is further established, especially the evaluation radar chart being also drawn to obtain the evaluation results from a direct sight angle. Finally, some practical computer simulations are launched to prove the validity and feasibility of the research thinking and technologic approaches which are proposed in the paper.

Earthquake Early Warning Management based on Client-Server using Primary Wave data from Vibrating Sensor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laumal, F. E.; Nope, K. B. N.; Peli, Y. S.

2018-01-01

Early warning is a warning mechanism before an actual incident occurs, can be implemented on natural events such as tsunamis or earthquakes. Earthquakes are classified in tectonic and volcanic types depend on the source and nature. The tremor in the form of energy propagates in all directions as Primary and Secondary waves. Primary wave as initial earthquake vibrations propagates longitudinally, while the secondary wave propagates like as a sinusoidal wave after Primary, destructive and as a real earthquake. To process the primary vibration data captured by the earthquake sensor, a network management required client computer to receives primary data from sensors, authenticate and forward to a server computer to set up an early warning system. With the water propagation concept, a method of early warning system has been determined in which some sensors are located on the same line, sending initial vibrations as primary data on the same scale and the server recommended to the alarm sound as an early warning.

Landslide early warning system prototype with GIS analysis indicates by soil movement and rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Artha, Y.; Julian, E. S.

2018-01-01

The aim of this paper is developing and testing of landslide early warning system. The early warning system uses accelerometersas ground movement and tilt-sensing device and a water flow sensor. A microcentroller is used to process the input signal and activate the alarm. An LCD is used to display the acceleration in x,y and z axis. When the soil moved or shifted and rainfall reached 100 mm/day, the alarm rang and signal were sentto the monitoring center via a telemetry system.Data logging information and GIS spatial data can be monitored remotely as tables and graphics as well as in the form of geographical map with the help of web-GIS interface. The system were tested at Kampung Gerendong, Desa Putat Nutug, Kecamatan Ciseeng, Kabupaten Bogor. This area has 3.15 cumulative score, which mean vulnerable to landslide. The results show that the early warning system worked as planned.

An Envelope Based Feedback Control System for Earthquake Early Warning: Reality Check Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heaton, T. H.; Karakus, G.; Beck, J. L.

2016-12-01

Earthquake early warning systems are, in general, designed to be open loop control systems in such a way that the output, i.e., the warning messages, only depend on the input, i.e., recorded ground motions, up to the moment when the message is issued in real-time. We propose an algorithm, which is called Reality Check Algorithm (RCA), which would assess the accuracy of issued warning messages, and then feed the outcome of the assessment back into the system. Then, the system would modify its messages if necessary. That is, we are proposing to convert earthquake early warning systems into feedback control systems by integrating them with RCA. RCA works by continuously monitoring and comparing the observed ground motions' envelopes to the predicted envelopes of Virtual Seismologist (Cua 2005). Accuracy of magnitude and location (both spatial and temporal) estimations of the system are assessed separately by probabilistic classification models, which are trained by a Sparse Bayesian Learning technique called Automatic Relevance Determination prior.

Effects of stressor characteristics on early warning signs of critical transitions and "critical coupling" in complex dynamical systems.

PubMed

Blume, Steffen O P; Sansavini, Giovanni

2017-12-01

Complex dynamical systems face abrupt transitions into unstable and catastrophic regimes. These critical transitions are triggered by gradual modifications in stressors, which push the dynamical system towards unstable regimes. Bifurcation analysis can characterize such critical thresholds, beyond which systems become unstable. Moreover, the stochasticity of the external stressors causes small-scale fluctuations in the system response. In some systems, the decomposition of these signal fluctuations into precursor signals can reveal early warning signs prior to the critical transition. Here, we present a dynamical analysis of a power system subjected to an increasing load level and small-scale stochastic load perturbations. We show that the auto- and cross-correlations of bus voltage magnitudes increase, leading up to a Hopf bifurcation point, and further grow until the system collapses. This evidences a gradual transition into a state of "critical coupling," which is complementary to the established concept of "critical slowing down." Furthermore, we analyze the effects of the type of load perturbation and load characteristics on early warning signs and find that gradient changes in the autocorrelation provide early warning signs of the imminent critical transition under white-noise but not for auto-correlated load perturbations. Furthermore, the cross-correlation between all voltage magnitude pairs generally increases prior to and beyond the Hopf bifurcation point, indicating "critical coupling," but cannot provide early warning indications. Finally, we show that the established early warning indicators are oblivious to limit-induced bifurcations and, in the case of the power system model considered here, only react to an approaching Hopf bifurcation.

The impact of Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems on nurses' competence: An integrative literature review and synthesis.

PubMed

Jensen, Jørghild Karlotte; Skår, Randi; Tveit, Bodil

2018-04-01

To describe, interpret and synthesise the current research findings on the impact of the Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems on nurses' competence in identifying and managing deteriorating patients in general hospital wards. As patient safety initiatives designed to ensure the early identification and management of deteriorating patients, the Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems have broad appeal. However, it is still unclear how these systems impact nurses' competence when these systems are used in general hospital wards. CINAHL, PubMed, Cochrane, EMBASE and Ovid MEDLINE databases were systematically searched for relevant articles. Articles were appraised, a thematic analysis was conducted, and similar and divergent perspectives on emergent themes and subthemes were extracted by a team of researchers. Thirty-six studies met the inclusion criteria. The analysis of findings showed how the Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems impacted three competence areas: (i) Nurses' competence in assessing and caring for patients related to the subthemes: (a) sensing clinical deterioration and (b) the development of skills and knowledge. (ii). Nurses' competence in referring patients, related to the subthemes: (a) deciding whether to summon help and (b) the language and communication lines in the referral process. (ii) Nurses' coping and mastery experiences. The impact of the Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems on nurses' competence in identifying and managing deteriorating patients is beneficial but also somewhat contradictory. A greater understanding of nurses' development of competence when using the Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems will facilitate the design of implementation strategies and the use of these systems to improve practice. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Organizing Schools to Address Early Warning Indicators (EWIs): Common Practices and Challenges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davis, Marcia; Herzog, Liza; Legters, Nettie

2013-01-01

An early warning system is an intentional process whereby school personnel collectively analyze student data to monitor students at risk of falling off track for graduation and to provide the interventions and resources to intervene. We studied the process of monitoring the early warning indicators and implementing interventions to ascertain…

Building Better Drought Resilience Through Improved Monitoring and Early Warning: Learning From Stakeholders in Europe, the USA, and Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahl, K.; Hannaford, J.; Bachmair, S.; Tijdeman, E.; Collins, K.; Svoboda, M.; Knutson, C. L.; Wall, N.; Smith, K. H.; Bernadt, T.; Crossman, N. D.; Overton, I. C.; Barker, L. J.; Acreman, M. C.

2016-12-01

With climate projections suggesting that droughts will intensify in many regions in future, improved drought risk management may reduce potential threats to freshwater security across the globe. One aspect that has been called for in this respect is an improvement of the linkage of drought monitoring and early warning, which currently focuses largely on indicators from meteorology and hydrology, to drought impacts on environment and society. However, a survey of existing monitoring and early warning systems globally, that we report on in this contribution, demonstrates that although impacts are being monitored, there is limited work, and certainly little consensus, on how to best achieve this linkage. The Belmont Forum project DrIVER (Drought impacts: Vulnerability thresholds in monitoring and early-warning research) carried out a number of stakeholder workshops in North America, Europe and Australia to elaborate on options for such improvements. A first round of workshops explored current drought management practices among a very diverse range of stakeholders, and their expectations from monitoring and early warning systems (particularly regarding impact characterization). The workshops revealed some disconnects between the indices used in the public early warning systems and those used by local decision-makers, e.g. to trigger drought measures. Follow-up workshops then explored how the links between information at these different scales can be bridged and applied. Impact information plays a key role in this task. This contribution draws on the lessons learned from the transdisciplinary interactions in DrIVER, to enhance the usability of drought monitoring and early-warning systems and other risk management strategies.

The role of integrating natural and social science concepts for risk governance and the design of people-centred early warning systems. Case study from the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System Project (GITEWS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebert, Niklas; Post, Joachim

2010-05-01

The development of early warning systems are one of the key domains of adaptation to global environmental change and contribute very much to the development of societal reaction and adaptive capacities to deal with extreme events. Especially, Indonesia is highly exposed to tsunami. In average every three years small and medium size tsunamis occur in the region causing damage and death. In the aftermath of the Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004, the German and Indonesian government agreed on a joint cooperation to develop a People Centered End-to-End Early Warning System (GITEWS). The analysis of risk and vulnerability, as an important step in risk (and early warning) governance, is a precondition for the design of effective early warning structures by delivering the knowledge base for developing institutionalized quick response mechanisms of organizations involved in the issuing of a tsunami warning, and of populations exposed to react to warnings and to manage evacuation before the first tsunami wave hits. Thus, a special challenge for developing countries is the governance of complex cross-sectoral and cross-scale institutional, social and spatial processes and requirements for the conceptualization, implementation and optimization of a people centered tsunami early warning system. In support of this, the risk and vulnerability assessment of the case study aims at identifying those factors that constitute the causal structure of the (dis)functionality between the technological warning and the social response system causing loss of life during an emergency situation: Which social groups are likely to be less able to receive and respond to an early warning alert? And, are people able to evacuate in due time? Here, only an interdisciplinary research approach is capable to analyze the socio-spatial and environmental conditions of vulnerability and risk and to produce valuable results for decision makers and civil society to manage tsunami risk in the early warning context. This requires the integration of natural / spatial and social science concepts, methods and data: E.g. a scenario based approach for tsunami inundation modeling was developed to provide decision makers with options to decide up to what level they aim to protect their people and territory, on the contrary household surveys were conducted for the spatial analysis of the evacuation preparedness of the population as a function of place specific hazard, risk, warning and evacuation perception; remote sensing was applied for the spatial analysis (land-use) of the socio-physical conditions of a city and region for evacuation; and existing social / population statistics were combined with land-use data for the precise spatial mapping of the population exposed to tsunami risks. Only by utilizing such a comprehensive assessment approach valuable information for risk governance can be generated. The results are mapped using GIS and designed according to the specific needs of different end-users, such as public authorities involved in the design of warning dissemination strategies, land-use planners (shelter planning, road network configuration) and NGOs mandated to provide education for the general public on tsunami risk and evacuation behavior. The case study of the city of Padang (one of the pilot areas of GITEWS), Indonesia clearly show, that only by intersecting social (vulnerability) and natural hazards research a comprehensive picture on tsunami risk can be provided with which risk governance in the early warning context can be conducted in a comprehensive, systemic and sustainable manner.

Study on Early-Warning System of Cotton Production in Hebei Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Runqing; Ma, Teng

Cotton production plays an important role in Hebei. It straightly influences cotton farmers’ life, agricultural production and national economic development as well. In recent years, due to cotton production frequently fluctuating, two situations, “difficult selling cotton” and “difficult buying cotton” have alternately occurred, and brought disadvantages to producers, businesses and national finance. Therefore, it is very crucial to research the early warning of cotton production for solving the problem of cotton production’s frequent fluctuation and ensuring the cotton industry’s sustainable development. This paper founds a signal lamp model of early warning through employing time-difference correlation analysis method to select early-warning indicators and statistical analysis method associated with empirical analysis to determine early-warning limits. Finally, it not only obtained warning conditions of cotton production from 1993 to 2006 and forecast 2007’s condition, but also put forward corresponding countermeasures to prevent cotton production from fluctuating. Furthermore, an early-warning software of cotton production is completed through computer programming on the basis of the early warning model above.

An early warning and control system for urban, drinking water quality protection: China's experience.

PubMed

Hou, Dibo; Song, Xiaoxuan; Zhang, Guangxin; Zhang, Hongjian; Loaiciga, Hugo

2013-07-01

An event-driven, urban, drinking water quality early warning and control system (DEWS) is proposed to cope with China's urgent need for protecting its urban drinking water. The DEWS has a web service structure and provides users with water quality monitoring functions, water quality early warning functions, and water quality accident decision-making functions. The DEWS functionality is guided by the principles of control theory and risk assessment as applied to the feedback control of urban water supply systems. The DEWS has been deployed in several large Chinese cities and found to perform well insofar as water quality early warning and emergency decision-making is concerned. This paper describes a DEWS for urban water quality protection that has been developed in China.

Climate change implications and use of early warning systems for global dust storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harriman, Lindsey M.

2014-01-01

With increased changes in land cover and global climate, early detection and warning of dust storms in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts. Human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns influence dust storms. More research is needed to analyse these factors of dust mobilisation to create more certainty for the fate of vulnerable populations and ecosystems in the future. Early warning and communication systems, when in place and effectively implemented, can offer some relief to these vulnerable areas. As an issue that affects many regions of the world, there is a profound need to understand the potential changes and ultimately create better early warning systems for dust storms.

A Cardiac Early Warning System with Multi Channel SCG and ECG Monitoring for Mobile Health

PubMed Central

Sahoo, Prasan Kumar; Thakkar, Hiren Kumar; Lee, Ming-Yih

2017-01-01

Use of information and communication technology such as smart phone, smart watch, smart glass and portable health monitoring devices for healthcare services has made Mobile Health (mHealth) an emerging research area. Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is considered as a leading cause of death world wide and an increasing number of people die prematurely due to CHD. Under such circumstances, there is a growing demand for a reliable cardiac monitoring system to catch the intermittent abnormalities and detect critical cardiac behaviors which lead to sudden death. Use of mobile devices to collect Electrocardiography (ECG), Seismocardiography (SCG) data and efficient analysis of those data can monitor a patient’s cardiac activities for early warning. This paper presents a novel cardiac data acquisition method and combined analysis of Electrocardiography (ECG) and multi channel Seismocardiography (SCG) data. An early warning system is implemented to monitor the cardiac activities of a person and accuracy assessment of the early warning system is conducted for the ECG data only. The assessment shows 88% accuracy and effectiveness of our proposed analysis, which implies the viability and applicability of the proposed early warning system. PMID:28353681

A Cardiac Early Warning System with Multi Channel SCG and ECG Monitoring for Mobile Health.

PubMed

Sahoo, Prasan Kumar; Thakkar, Hiren Kumar; Lee, Ming-Yih

2017-03-29

Use of information and communication technology such as smart phone, smart watch, smart glass and portable health monitoring devices for healthcare services has made Mobile Health (mHealth) an emerging research area. Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is considered as a leading cause of death world wide and an increasing number of people die prematurely due to CHD. Under such circumstances, there is a growing demand for a reliable cardiac monitoring system to catch the intermittent abnormalities and detect critical cardiac behaviors which lead to sudden death. Use of mobile devices to collect Electrocardiography (ECG), Seismocardiography (SCG) data and efficient analysis of those data can monitor a patient's cardiac activities for early warning. This paper presents a novel cardiac data acquisition method and combined analysis of Electrocardiography (ECG) and multi channel Seismocardiography (SCG) data. An early warning system is implemented to monitor the cardiac activities of a person and accuracy assessment of the early warning system is conducted for the ECG data only. The assessment shows 88% accuracy and effectiveness of our proposed analysis, which implies the viability and applicability of the proposed early warning system.

The reconnaissance and early-warning optical system design for dual field of space-based "solar blind ultraviolet"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wen-cong; Jin, Dong-dong; Shao, Fei; Hu, Hui-jun; Shi, Yu-feng; Song, Juan; Zhang, Yu-tu; Yong, Liu

2016-07-01

With the development of modern technology, especially the development of information technology at high speed, the ultraviolet early warning system plays an increasingly important role. In the modern warfare, how to detect the threats earlier, prevent and reduce the attack of precision-guided missile has become a new challenge. Because the ultraviolet warning technology has high environmental adaptability, the low false alarm rate, small volume and other advantages, in the military field applications it has been developed rapidly. According to current application demands for solar blind ultraviolet detection and warning, this paper proposes a reconnaissance and early-warning optical system, which covers solar blind ultraviolet (250nm-280nm) and dual field. This structure takes advantage of a narrow field of view and long focal length optical system to achieve the target object detection, uses wide-field and short focal length optical system to achieve early warning of the target object. It makes use of an ultraviolet beam-splitter to achieve the separation of two optical systems. According to the detector and the corresponding application needs of two visual field of the optical system, the calculation and optical system design were completed. After the design, the MTF of the two optical system is more than 0.8@39lp/mm. A single pixel energy concentration is greater than 80%.

Design of flood early warning system with wifi network based on smartphone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Supani, Ahyar; Andriani, Yuli; Taqwa, Ahmad

2017-11-01

Today, the development using internet of things enables activities surrounding us to be monitored, controlled, predicted and calculated remotely through connections to the internet network such as monitoring activities of long-distance flood warning with information technology. Applying an information technology in the field of flood early warning has been developed in the world, either connected to internet network or not. The internet network that has been done in this paper is the design of WiFi network to access data of rainfall, water level and flood status at any time with a smartphone coming from flood early warning system. The results obtained when test of data accessing with smartphone are in form of rainfall and water level graphs against time and flood status indicators consisting of 3 flood states: Standby 2, Standby 1 and Flood. It is concluded that data are from flood early warning system has been able to accessed and displayed on smartphone via WiFi network in any time and real time.

Famines in Africa: is early warning early enough?

PubMed Central

Kim, Jeeyon Janet; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2012-01-01

Following the second Sahelian famine in 1984–1985, major investments were made to establish Early Warning Systems. These systems help to ensure that timely warnings and vulnerability information are available to decision makers to anticipate and avert food crises. In the recent crisis in the Horn of Africa, alarming levels of acute malnutrition were documented from March 2010, and by August 2010, an impending food crisis was forecast. Despite these measures, the situation remained unrecognised, and further deteriorated causing malnutrition levels to grow in severity and scope. By the time the United Nations officially declared famine on 20 July 2011, and the humanitarian community sluggishly went into response mode, levels of malnutrition and mortality exceeded catastrophic levels. At this time, an estimated 11 million people were in desperate and immediate need for food. With warnings of food crises in the Sahel, South Sudan, and forecast of the drought returning to the Horn, there is an immediate need to institutionalize change in the health response during humanitarian emergencies. Early warning systems are only effective if they trigger an early response. PMID:22745628

Famines in Africa: is early warning early enough?

PubMed

Kim, Jeeyon Janet; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2012-01-01

Following the second Sahelian famine in 1984-1985, major investments were made to establish Early Warning Systems. These systems help to ensure that timely warnings and vulnerability information are available to decision makers to anticipate and avert food crises. In the recent crisis in the Horn of Africa, alarming levels of acute malnutrition were documented from March 2010, and by August 2010, an impending food crisis was forecast. Despite these measures, the situation remained unrecognised, and further deteriorated causing malnutrition levels to grow in severity and scope. By the time the United Nations officially declared famine on 20 July 2011, and the humanitarian community sluggishly went into response mode, levels of malnutrition and mortality exceeded catastrophic levels. At this time, an estimated 11 million people were in desperate and immediate need for food. With warnings of food crises in the Sahel, South Sudan, and forecast of the drought returning to the Horn, there is an immediate need to institutionalize change in the health response during humanitarian emergencies. Early warning systems are only effective if they trigger an early response.

Using SMAP data to improve drought early warning over the US Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, R.; Fernando, N.; Tang, W.

2015-12-01

A drought prone region such as the Great Plains of the United States (US GP) requires credible and actionable drought early warning. Such information cannot simply be extracted from available climate forecasts because of their large uncertainties at regional scales, and unclear connections to the needs of the decision makers. In particular, current dynamic seasonal predictions and climate projections, such as those produced by the NOAA North American Multi-Model Ensemble experiment (NMME) are much more reliable for winter and spring than for the summer season for the US GP. To mitigate the weaknesses of dynamic prediction/projections, we have identified three key processes behind the spring-to-summer dry memory through observational studies, as the scientific basis for a statistical drought early warning system. This system uses percentile soil moisture anomalies in spring as a key input to provide a probabilistic summer drought early warning. The latter outperforms the dynamic prediction over the US Southern Plains and has been used by the Texas state water agency to support state drought preparedness. A main source of uncertainty for this drought early warning system is the soil moisture input obtained from the NOAA Climate Forecasting System (CFS). We are testing use of the beta version of NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) soil moisture data, along with the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and the long-term Essential Climate Variable Soil Moisture (ECV-SM) soil moisture data, to reduce this uncertainty. Preliminary results based on ECV-SM suggests satellite based soil moisture data could improve early warning of rainfall anomalies over the western US GP with less dense vegetation. The skill degrades over the eastern US GP where denser vegetation is found. We evaluate our SMAP-based drought early warning for 2015 summer against observations.

Research and application of a novel hybrid air quality early-warning system: A case study in China.

PubMed

Li, Chen; Zhu, Zhijie

2018-06-01

As one of the most serious meteorological disasters in modern society, air pollution has received extensive attention from both citizens and decision-makers. With the complexity of pollution components and the uncertainty of prediction, it is both critical and challenging to construct an effective and practical early-warning system. In this paper, a novel hybrid air quality early-warning system for pollution contaminant monitoring and analysis was proposed. To improve the efficiency of the system, an advanced attribute selection method based on fuzzy evaluation and rough set theory was developed to select the main pollution contaminants for cities. Moreover, a hybrid model composed of the theory of "decomposition and ensemble", an extreme learning machine and an advanced heuristic algorithm was developed for pollution contaminant prediction; it provides deterministic and interval forecasting for tackling the uncertainty of future air quality. Daily pollution contaminants of six major cities in China were selected as a dataset to evaluate the practicality and effectiveness of the developed air quality early-warning system. The superior experimental performance determined by the values of several error indexes illustrated that the proposed early-warning system was of great effectiveness and efficiency. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

REWSET: A prototype seismic and tsunami early warning system in Rhodes island, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadopoulos, Gerasimos; Argyris, Ilias; Aggelou, Savvas; Karastathis, Vasilis

2014-05-01

Tsunami warning in near-field conditions is a critical issue in the Mediterranean Sea since the most important tsunami sources are situated within tsunami wave travel times starting from about five minutes. The project NEARTOWARN (2012-2013) supported by the EU-DG ECHO contributed substantially to the development of new tools for the near-field tsunami early warning in the Mediterranean. One of the main achievements is the development of a local warning system in the test-site of Rhodes island (Rhodes Early Warning System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis - REWSET). The system is composed by three main subsystems: (1) a network of eight seismic early warning devices installed in four different localities of the island, one in the civil protection, another in the Fire Brigade and another two in municipality buildings; (2) two radar-type (ultrasonic) tide-gauges installed in the eastern coastal zine of the island which was selected since research on the historical earthquake and tsunami activity has indicated that the most important, near-field tsunami sources are situated offshore to the east of Rhodes; (3) a crisis Geographic Management System (GMS), which is a web-based and GIS-based application incorporating a variety of thematic maps and other information types. The seismic early warning devices activate by strong (magnitude around 6 or more) earthquakes occurring at distances up to about 100 km from Rhodes, thus providing immediate mobilization of the civil protection. The tide-gauges transmit sea level data, while during the crisis the GMS supports decisions to be made by civil protection. In the near future it is planned the REWSET system to be integrated with national and international systems. REWSET is a prototype which certainly could be developed in other coastal areas of the Mediterranean and beyond.

Surveillance and early warning systems of infectious disease in China: From 2012 to 2014.

PubMed

Zhang, Honglong; Wang, Liping; Lai, Shengjie; Li, Zhongjie; Sun, Qiao; Zhang, Peng

2017-07-01

Appropriate surveillance and early warning of infectious diseases have very useful roles in disease control and prevention. In 2004, China established the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System and the Public Health Emergency Event Surveillance System to report disease surveillance and events on the basis of data sources from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System, China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System in this country. This study provided a descriptive summary and a data analysis, from 2012 to 2014, of these 3 key surveillance and early warning systems of infectious disease in China with the intent to provide suggestions for system improvement and perfection. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns

PubMed Central

Brock, William A.; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Livina, Valerie N.; Seekell, David A.; Scheffer, Marten; van Nes, Egbert H.; Dakos, Vasilis

2014-01-01

A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data. PMID:24658137

Early Warning Systems: Re-Engaging Chronic Truants

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chorneau, Tom

2012-01-01

School attendance can be an early indicator that something is going wrong with a student. Gathering, analyzing, and acting on attendance information is a first step toward school improvement. Meanwhile, the majority of the states are moving to build and enhance what are called "early warning systems," intended to flag at-risk students during their…

Volvo and Infiniti drivers' experiences with select crash avoidance technologies.

PubMed

Braitman, Keli A; McCartt, Anne T; Zuby, David S; Singer, Jeremiah

2010-06-01

Vehicle-based crash avoidance systems can potentially reduce crashes, but success depends on driver acceptance and understanding. This study gauged driver use, experience, and acceptance among early adopters of select technologies. Telephone interviews were conducted in early 2009 with 380 owners of Volvo vehicles equipped with forward collision warning with autobrake, lane departure warning, side-view assist, and/or active bi-xenon headlights and 485 owners of Infiniti vehicles with lane departure warning/prevention. Most owners kept systems turned on most of the time, especially forward collision warning with autobrake and side-view assist. The exception was lane departure prevention; many owners were unaware they had it, and the system must be activated each time the vehicle is started. Most owners reported being safer with the technologies and would want them again on their next vehicles. Perceived false or unnecessary warnings were fairly common, particularly with side-view assist. Some systems were annoying, especially lane departure warning. Many owners reported safer driving behaviors such as greater use of turn signals (lane departure warning), increased following distance (forward collision warning), and checking side mirrors more frequently (side-view assist), but some reported driving faster at night (active headlights). Despite some unnecessary or annoying warnings, most Volvo and Infiniti owners use crash avoidance systems most of the time. Among early adopters, the first requirement of effective warning systems (that owners use the technology) seems largely met. Systems requiring activation by drivers for each trip are used less often. Owner experience with the latest technologies from other automobile manufacturers should be studied, as well as for vehicles on which technologies are standard (versus optional) equipment. The effectiveness of technologies in preventing and mitigating crashes and injuries, and user acceptance of interfaces, should be examined as more vehicles with advanced technologies penetrate the fleet.

Coral Reef Early Warning System (CREWS) RPC Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estep, Leland; Spruce, Joseph P.; Hall, Callie

2007-01-01

This viewgraph document reviews the background, objectives, methodology, validation, and present status of the Coral Reef Early Warning System (CREWS) Rapid Prototyping Capability (RPC) experiment. The potential NASA contribution to CREWS Decision Support Tool (DST) centers on remotely sensed imagery products.

Early warning systems for the management of chronic heart failure: a systematic literature review of cost-effectiveness models.

PubMed

Albuquerque De Almeida, Fernando; Al, Maiwenn; Koymans, Ron; Caliskan, Kadir; Kerstens, Ankie; Severens, Johan L

2018-04-01

Describing the general and methodological characteristics of decision-analytical models used in the economic evaluation of early warning systems for the management of chronic heart failure patients and performing a quality assessment of their methodological characteristics is expected to provide concise and useful insight to inform the future development of decision-analytical models in the field of heart failure management. Areas covered: The literature on decision-analytical models for the economic evaluation of early warning systems for the management of chronic heart failure patients was systematically reviewed. Nine electronic databases were searched through the combination of synonyms for heart failure and sensitive filters for cost-effectiveness and early warning systems. Expert commentary: The retrieved models show some variability with regards to their general study characteristics. Overall, they display satisfactory methodological quality, even though some points could be improved, namely on the consideration and discussion of any competing theories regarding model structure and disease progression, identification of key parameters and the use of expert opinion, and uncertainty analyses. A comprehensive definition of early warning systems and further research under this label should be pursued. To improve the transparency of economic evaluation publications, authors should make available detailed technical information regarding the published models.

The effect of adult Early Warning Systems education on nurses' knowledge, confidence and clinical performance: A systematic review.

PubMed

Saab, Mohamad M; McCarthy, Bridie; Andrews, Tom; Savage, Eileen; Drummond, Frances J; Walshe, Nuala; Forde, Mary; Breen, Dorothy; Henn, Patrick; Drennan, Jonathan; Hegarty, Josephine

2017-11-01

This review aims to determine the effect of adult Early Warning Systems education on nurses' knowledge, confidence and clinical performance. Early Warning Systems support timely identification of clinical deterioration and prevention of avoidable deaths. Several educational programmes have been designed to help nurses recognize and manage deteriorating patients. Little is known as to the effectiveness of these programmes. Systematic review. Academic Search Complete, CINAHL, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, PsycARTICLES, Psychology and Behavioral Science Collection, SocINDEX and the UK & Ireland Reference Centre, EMBASE, the Turning Research Into Practice database, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and Grey Literature sources were searched between October and November 2015. This is a quantitative systematic review using Cochrane methods. Studies published between January 2011 - November 2015 in English were sought. The risk of bias, level of evidence and the quality of evidence per outcome were assessed. Eleven articles with 10 studies were included. Nine studies addressed clinical performance, four addressed knowledge and two addressed confidence. Knowledge, vital signs recording and Early Warning Score calculation were improved in the short term. Two interventions had no effect on nurses' response to clinical deterioration and use of communication tools. This review highlights the importance of measuring outcomes using standardized tools and valid and reliable instruments. Using longitudinal designs, researchers are encouraged to investigate the effect of Early Warning Systems educational programmes. These can include interactive e-learning, on-site interdisciplinary Early Warning Scoring systems training sessions and simulated scenarios. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

PROPOSED WATER QUALITY SURVEILLANCE NETWORK USING PHYSICAL, CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS (CBEWS)

EPA Science Inventory

The Homeland Protection Act of 2002 specifically calls for the investigation and use of Early Warning Systems (EWS) for water security reasons. The EWS is a screening tool for detecting changes in source water and distribution system water quality. A suite of time-relevant biol...

PROPOSED WATER QUALITY SURVEILLANCE NETWORK USING PHYSICAL, CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS (BEWS)

EPA Science Inventory

The Homeland Protection Act of 2002 specifically calls for the investigation and use of Early Warning Systems (EWS) for water security reasons. The EWS is a screening tool for detecting changes in source water and distribution system water quality. A suite of time-relevant biol...

78 FR 68831 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Submission to the Office of Management and Budget for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-15

... Early Warning and Intervention Monitoring System AGENCY: Institute of Education Sciences/National Center... Intervention Monitoring System. OMB Control Number: 1850-NEW. Type of Review: New collection. Respondents... planning a two-part evaluation of the Early Warning and Intervention Monitoring System (EWIMS), consisting...

Food Security, Decision Making and the Use of Remote Sensing in Famine Early Warning Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.

2008-01-01

Famine early warning systems use remote sensing in combination with socio-economic and household food economy analysis to provide timely and rigorous information on emerging food security crises. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is the US Agency for International Development's decision support system in 20 African countries, as well as in Guatemala, Haiti and Afghanistan. FEWS NET provides early and actionable policy guidance for the US Government and its humanitarian aid partners. As we move into an era of climate change where weather hazards will become more frequent and severe, understanding how to provide quantitative and actionable scientific information for policy makers using biophysical data is critical for an appropriate and effective response.

Early warning signals for critical transitions in a thermoacoustic system

PubMed Central

Gopalakrishnan, E. A.; Sharma, Yogita; John, Tony; Dutta, Partha Sharathi; Sujith, R. I.

2016-01-01

Dynamical systems can undergo critical transitions where the system suddenly shifts from one stable state to another at a critical threshold called the tipping point. The decrease in recovery rate to equilibrium (critical slowing down) as the system approaches the tipping point can be used to identify the proximity to a critical transition. Several measures have been adopted to provide early indications of critical transitions that happen in a variety of complex systems. In this study, we use early warning indicators to predict subcritical Hopf bifurcation occurring in a thermoacoustic system by analyzing the observables from experiments and from a theoretical model. We find that the early warning measures perform as robust indicators in the presence and absence of external noise. Thus, we illustrate the applicability of these indicators in an engineering system depicting critical transitions. PMID:27767065

Early Warning/Track-and-Trigger Systems to Detect Deterioration and Improve Outcomes in Hospitalized Patients.

PubMed

Shiloh, Ariel L; Lominadze, George; Gong, Michelle N; Savel, Richard H

2016-02-01

As a global effort toward improving patient safety, a specific area of focus has been the early recognition and rapid intervention in deteriorating ward patients. This focus on "failure to rescue" has led to the construction of early warning/track-and-trigger systems. In this review article, we present a description of the data behind the creation and implementation of such systems, including multiple algorithms and strategies for deployment. Additionally, the strengths and weaknesses of the various systems and their evaluation in the literature are emphasized. Despite the limitations of the current literature, the potential benefit of these early warning/track-and-trigger systems to improve patient outcomes remains significant. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Establishment of turbidity forecasting model and early-warning system for source water turbidity management using back-propagation artificial neural network algorithm and probability analysis.

PubMed

Yang, Tsung-Ming; Fan, Shu-Kai; Fan, Chihhao; Hsu, Nien-Sheng

2014-08-01

The purpose of this study is to establish a turbidity forecasting model as well as an early-warning system for turbidity management using rainfall records as the input variables. The Taipei Water Source Domain was employed as the study area, and ANOVA analysis showed that the accumulative rainfall records of 1-day Ping-lin, 2-day Ping-lin, 2-day Fei-tsui, 2-day Shi-san-gu, 2-day Tai-pin and 2-day Tong-hou were the six most significant parameters for downstream turbidity development. The artificial neural network model was developed and proven capable of predicting the turbidity concentration in the investigated catchment downstream area. The observed and model-calculated turbidity data were applied to developing the turbidity early-warning system. Using a previously determined turbidity as the threshold, the rainfall criterion, above which the downstream turbidity would possibly exceed this respective threshold turbidity, for the investigated rain gauge stations was determined. An exemplary illustration demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed turbidity early-warning system as a precautionary alarm of possible significant increase of downstream turbidity. This study is the first report of the establishment of the turbidity early-warning system. Hopefully, this system can be applied to source water turbidity forecasting during storm events and provide a useful reference for subsequent adjustment of drinking water treatment operation.

School disengagement as a predictor of dropout, delinquency, and problem substance use during adolescence and early adulthood.

PubMed

Henry, Kimberly L; Knight, Kelly E; Thornberry, Terence P

2012-02-01

Over the past 5 years, a great deal of attention has been paid to the development of early warning systems for dropout prevention. These warning systems use a set of indicators based on official school records to identify youth at risk for dropout and then appropriately target intervention. The current study builds on this work by assessing the extent to which a school disengagement warning index predicts not only dropout but also other problem behaviors during middle adolescence, late adolescence, and early adulthood. Data from the Rochester Youth Development Study (N = 911, 73% male, 68% African American, and 17% Latino) were used to examine the effects of a school disengagement warning index based on official 8th and 9th grade school records on subsequent dropout, as well as serious delinquency, official offending, and problem substance use during middle adolescence, late adolescence, and early adulthood. Results indicate that the school disengagement warning index is robustly related to dropout as well as serious problem behaviors across the three developmental stages, even after controlling for important potential confounders. High school dropout mediates the effect of the warning index on serious problem behaviors in early adulthood.

School Disengagement as a Predictor of Dropout, Delinquency, and Problem Substance Use during Adolescence and Early Adulthood

PubMed Central

Henry, Kimberly L.; Knight, Kelly E.; Thornberry, Terence P.

2015-01-01

Over the past five years, a great deal of attention has been paid to the development of early warning systems for dropout prevention. These warning systems use a set of indicators based on official school records to identify youth at risk for dropout and then appropriately target intervention. The current study builds on this work by assessing the extent to which a school disengagement warning index predicts not only dropout but also other problem behaviors during middle adolescence, late adolescence, and early adulthood. Data from the Rochester Youth Development Study (n=911, 73% male, 68% African American, and 17% Latino) were used to examine the effects of a school disengagement warning index based on official 8th and 9th grade school records on subsequent dropout, as well as serious delinquency, official offending, and problem substance use during middle adolescence, late adolescence, and early adulthood. Results indicate that the school disengagement warning index is robustly related to dropout as well as serious problem behaviors across the three developmental stages, even after controlling for important potential confounders. High school dropout mediates the effect of the warning index on serious problem behaviors in early adulthood. PMID:21523389

Design of a reliable and operational landslide early warning system at regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvello, Michele; Piciullo, Luca; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Melillo, Massimo; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Peruccacci, Silvia; Guzzetti, Fausto

2017-04-01

Landslide early warning systems at regional scale are used to warn authorities, civil protection personnel and the population about the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides over wide areas, typically through the prediction and measurement of meteorological variables. A warning model for these systems must include a regional correlation law and a decision algorithm. A regional correlation law can be defined as a functional relationship between rainfall and landslides; it is typically based on thresholds of rainfall indicators (e.g., cumulated rainfall, rainfall duration) related to different exceedance probabilities of landslide occurrence. A decision algorithm can be defined as a set of assumptions and procedures linking rainfall thresholds to warning levels. The design and the employment of an operational and reliable early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides at regional scale depend on the identification of a reliable correlation law as well as on the definition of a suitable decision algorithm. Herein, a five-step process chain addressing both issues and based on rainfall thresholds is proposed; the procedure is tested in a landslide-prone area of the Campania region in southern Italy. To this purpose, a database of 96 shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in the period 2003-2010 and rainfall data gathered from 58 rain gauges are used. First, a set of rainfall thresholds are defined applying a frequentist method to reconstructed rainfall conditions triggering landslides in the test area. In the second step, several thresholds at different exceedance probabilities are evaluated, and different percentile combinations are selected for the activation of three warning levels. Subsequently, within steps three and four, the issuing of warning levels is based on the comparison, over time and for each combination, between the measured rainfall and the pre-defined warning level thresholds. Finally, the optimal percentile combination to be employed in the regional early warning system is selected evaluating the model performance in terms of success and error indicators by means of the "event, duration matrix, performance" (EDuMaP) method.

An early warning system for groundwater pollution based on the assessment of groundwater pollution risks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Weihong.; Zhao, Yongsheng; Hong, Mei; Guo, Xiaodong

2009-04-01

Groundwater pollution usually is complex and concealed, remediation of which is difficult, high cost, time-consuming, and ineffective. An early warning system for groundwater pollution is needed that detects groundwater quality problems and gets the information necessary to make sound decisions before massive groundwater quality degradation occurs. Groundwater pollution early warning were performed by considering comprehensively the current groundwater quality, groundwater quality varying trend and groundwater pollution risk . The map of the basic quality of the groundwater was obtained by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation or BP neural network evaluation. Based on multi-annual groundwater monitoring datasets, Water quality state in sometime of the future was forecasted using time-sequenced analyzing methods. Water quality varying trend was analyzed by Spearman's rank correlative coefficient.The relative risk map of groundwater pollution was estimated through a procedure that identifies, cell by cell,the values of three factors, that is inherent vulnerability, load risk of pollution source and contamination hazard. DRASTIC method was used to assess inherent vulnerability of aquifer. Load risk of pollution source was analyzed based on the potential of contamination and pollution degree. Assessment index of load risk of pollution source which involves the variety of pollution source, quantity of contaminants, releasing potential of pollutants, and distance were determined. The load risks of all sources considered by GIS overlay technology. Early warning model of groundwater pollution combined with ComGIS technology organically, the regional groundwater pollution early-warning information system was developed, and applied it into Qiqiha'er groundwater early warning. It can be used to evaluate current water quality, to forecast water quality changing trend, and to analyze space-time influencing range of groundwater quality by natural process and human activities. Keywords: groundwater pollution, early warning, aquifer vulnerability, pollution load, pollution risk, ComGIS

ON-LINE TOXICITY MONITORS AND WATERSHED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

A Water Quality Early Warning System using On-line Toxicity Monitors (OTMs) has been deployed in the East Fork of the Little Miami River, Clermont County, OH. Living organisms have long been used to determine the toxicity of environmental samples. With advancements in electronic ...

Community-based early warning systems for flood risk mitigation in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Paul J.; Brown, Sarah; Dugar, Sumit

2017-03-01

This paper focuses on the use of community-based early warning systems for flood resilience in Nepal. The first part of the work outlines the evolution and current status of these community-based systems, highlighting the limited lead times currently available for early warning. The second part of the paper focuses on the development of a robust operational flood forecasting methodology for use by the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) to enhance early warning lead times. The methodology uses data-based physically interpretable time series models and data assimilation to generate probabilistic forecasts, which are presented in a simple visual tool. The approach is designed to work in situations of limited data availability with an emphasis on sustainability and appropriate technology. The successful application of the forecast methodology to the flood-prone Karnali River basin in western Nepal is outlined, increasing lead times from 2-3 to 7-8 h. The challenges faced in communicating probabilistic forecasts to the last mile of the existing community-based early warning systems across Nepal is discussed. The paper concludes with an assessment of the applicability of this approach in basins and countries beyond Karnali and Nepal and an overview of key lessons learnt from this initiative.

Real-time earthquake data feasible

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bush, Susan

Scientists agree that early warning devices and monitoring of both Hurricane Hugo and the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic eruption saved thousands of lives. What would it take to develop this sort of early warning and monitoring system for earthquake activity?Not all that much, claims a panel assigned to study the feasibility, costs, and technology needed to establish a real-time earthquake monitoring (RTEM) system. The panel, drafted by the National Academy of Science's Committee on Seismology, has presented its findings in Real-Time Earthquake Monitoring. The recently released report states that “present technology is entirely capable of recording and processing data so as to provide real-time information, enabling people to mitigate somewhat the earthquake disaster.” RTEM systems would consist of two parts—an early warning system that would give a few seconds warning before severe shaking, and immediate postquake information within minutes of the quake that would give actual measurements of the magnitude. At this time, however, this type of warning system has not been addressed at the national level for the United States and is not included in the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program, according to the report.

The use of early warning scores to recognise and respond to patient deterioration in district nursing.

PubMed

Tucker, Guy; Lusher, Adele

2018-02-02

This discussion article focuses on the literature surrounding early warning scoring systems and their use in primary care, specifically within district nursing. Patient deterioration is a global concern, associated with high mortality rates and avoidable deaths. Early recognition and response by nursing and other health care staff has been attributed to early warning scoring systems (EWSS) and tools. However, the use of equivalent tools in the community appears to be lacking. This review concludes that there is no consensus over the use of EWSS in district nursing and culture of practice is varied, rather than standardised.

Early Warnings for Local Labor Markets

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matland, Marc A.

1976-01-01

This articles summarizes the National Planning Association's (NPA) experience in its initial efforts to develop an early warning system to anticipate job openings generated in local communities by large Federal procurement contracts. (WL)

Floods in 2002 and 2013: comparing flood warnings and emergency measures from the perspective of affected parties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreibich, Heidi; Pech, Ina; Schröter, Kai; Müller, Meike; Thieken, Annegret

2016-04-01

Early warning is essential for protecting people and mitigating damage in case of flood events. However, early warning is only helpful if the flood-endangered parties are reached by the warning and if they know how to react effectively. Finding suitable methods for communicating helpful warnings to the "last mile" remains a challenge, but not much information is available. Surveys were undertaken after the August 2002 and the June 2013 floods in Germany, asking affected private households and companies about warnings they received and emergency measures they undertook. Results show, that in 2002 early warning did not work well: in too many areas warnings came too late or were too imprecise and many people (27%) and companies (45%) did not receive a flood warning. Afterwards, the warning systems were significantly improved, so that in 2013 only a small share of the affected people (7%) and companies (7 %) was not reached by any warning. Additionally, private households and companies were hardly aware of the flood risk in the Elbe catchment before 2002, mainly due to a lack of flood experience. For instance, in 2002 only 14% of private households clearly knew how to protect themselves and their assets when the warning reached them, in 2013 this fraction was 46 %. Although the share of companies which had an emergency plan in place had increased from 10 % in 2002 to 26 % in 2013, and the share of those conducting regular emergency exercises had increased from 4 % to 13 %, there is still plenty of room for improvement. Therefore, integrated early warning systems from monitoring through to the reaction of the affected parties as well as effective risk and emergency communication need continuous further improvement to protect people and mitigate residual risks in case of floods.

Early warning system for aftershocks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bakun, W.H.; Fischer, F.G.; Jensen, E.G.; VanSchaack, J.

1994-01-01

A prototype early warning system to provide San Francisco and Oakland, California a few tens-of-seconds warning of incoming strong ground shaking from already-occurred M ≧ 3.7 aftershocks of the magnitude 7.1 17 October 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake was operational on 28 October 1989. The prototype system consisted of four components: ground motion sensors in the epicentral area, a central receiver, a radio repeater, and radio receivers. One of the radio receivers was deployed at the California Department of Transportation (CALTRANS) headquarters at the damaged Cypress Street section of the I-880 freeway in Oakland, California on 28 October 1989 and provided about 20 sec of warning before shaking from the M 4.5 Loma Prieta aftershock that occurred on 2 November 1989 at 0550 UTC. In its first 6 months of operation, the system generated triggers for all 12 M > 3.7 aftershocks for which trigger documentation is preserved, did not trigger on any M ≦ 3.6 aftershocks, and produced one false trigger as a result of a now-corrected single point of failure design flaw. Because the prototype system demonstrated that potentially useful warnings of strong shaking from aftershocks are feasible, the USGS has completed a portable early warning system for aftershocks that can be deployed anywhere.

Global early warning systems for natural hazards: systematic and people-centred.

PubMed

Basher, Reid

2006-08-15

To be effective, early warning systems for natural hazards need to have not only a sound scientific and technical basis, but also a strong focus on the people exposed to risk, and with a systems approach that incorporates all of the relevant factors in that risk, whether arising from the natural hazards or social vulnerabilities, and from short-term or long-term processes. Disasters are increasing in number and severity and international institutional frameworks to reduce disasters are being strengthened under United Nations oversight. Since the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004, there has been a surge of interest in developing early warning systems to cater to the needs of all countries and all hazards.

Research and application of a hybrid model based on dynamic fuzzy synthetic evaluation for establishing air quality forecasting and early warning system: A case study in China.

PubMed

Xu, Yunzhen; Du, Pei; Wang, Jianzhou

2017-04-01

As the atmospheric environment pollution has been becoming more and more serious in China, it is highly desirable to develop a scientific and effective early warning system that plays a great significant role in analyzing and monitoring air quality. However, establishing a robust early warning system for warning the public in advance and ameliorating air quality is not only an extremely challenging task but also a public concerned problem for human health. Most previous studies are focused on improving the prediction accuracy, which usually ignore the significance of uncertainty information and comprehensive evaluation concerning air pollutants. Therefore, in this paper a novel robust early warning system was successfully developed, which consists of three modules: evaluation module, forecasting module and characteristics estimating module. In this system, a new dynamic fuzzy synthetic evaluation is proposed and applied to determine air quality levels and primary pollutants, which can be regarded as the research objectives; Moreover, to further mine and analyze the characteristics of air pollutants, four different distribution functions and interval forecasting method are also employed that can not only provide predictive range, confidence level and the other uncertain information of the pollutants future values, but also assist decision-makers in reducing and controlling the emissions of atmospheric pollutants. Case studies utilizing hourly PM 2.5 , PM 10 and SO 2 data collected from Tianjin and Shanghai in China are applied as illustrative examples to estimate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed system. Experimental results obviously indicated that the developed novel early warning system is much suitable for analyzing and monitoring air pollution, which can also add a novel viable option for decision-makers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Educator Evaluation and the Use of the Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS). Updated September 9, 2013

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2013

2013-01-01

The Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education first released the Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS) data for grades 1-12 in the 2012-13 school year. The Department created the EWIS in direct response to educators' requests for early indicator data across multiple grade levels. The EWIS is a "tool to systematically…

An integrated earthquake early warning system and its performance at schools in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Bing-Ru; Hsiao, Nai-Chi; Lin, Pei-Yang; Hsu, Ting-Yu; Chen, Chiou-Yun; Huang, Shieh-Kung; Chiang, Hung-Wei

2017-01-01

An earthquake early warning (EEW) system with integration of regional and onsite approaches was installed at nine demonstration stations in several districts of Taiwan for taking advantages of both approaches. The system performance was evaluated by a 3-year experiment at schools, which experienced five major earthquakes during this period. The blind zone of warning was effectively reduced by the integrated EEW system. The predicted intensities from EEW demonstration stations showed acceptable accuracy compared to field observations. The operation experience from an earthquake event proved that students could calmly carry out correct action before the seismic wave arrived using some warning time provided by the EEW system. Through successful operation in practice, the integrated EEW system was verified as an effective tool for disaster prevention at schools.

HRAS: a webserver for early warning of human health risk brought by aflatoxin.

PubMed

Hu, Ruifeng; Zeng, Xu; Gao, Weiwei; Wang, Qian; Liu, Zhihua

2013-02-01

Most people are aware that outdoor air pollution can damage their health, but many do not know that indoor air pollution can also exhibit significant negative health effects. Fungi parasitizing in air conditioning and ventilation systems can be one of indoor air pollution sources. Aflatoxin produced by Aspergillus flavus (A. flavus) became a central focus of indoor air pollution, especially in farmer markets. Therefore we developed an early warning system, Health Risk Assessment System, to estimate the growth rate of A. flavus, predict the amount of aflatoxin and provide early warning information. Firstly, the growth of A. flavus and the production of aflatoxin under different conditions were widely obtained through a comprehensive literature review. Secondly, three mathematical models were established to predict the A. flavus colony growth rate, lag phase duration and aflatoxin content, as functions of temperature and water activity based on present studies. Finally, all the results were evaluated by the user-supplied data using PHP programming language. We utilized the web page to show the results and display warning information. The JpGraph library was used to create a dynamic line chart, refreshing the warning information dynamically in real-time. The HARS provides accurate information for early warning purposes to let us take timely steps to protect ourselves.

Implementing an Inpatient Social Early Warning System for Child Maltreatment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Atabaki, Armita; Heddaeus, Daniela; Metzner, Franka; Schulz, Holger; Siefert, Sonke; Pawils, Silke

2013-01-01

Objectives: The current article describes the process evaluation of a social early warning system (SEWS) for the prevention of child maltreatment in the federal state of Hamburg. This prevention initiative targets expectant mothers and their partners including an initial screening of risk factors for child maltreatment, a subsequent structured…

Improving Early Warning Systems with Categorized Course Resource Usage

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Waddington, R. Joseph; Nam, SungJin; Lonn, Steven; Teasley, Stephanie D.

2016-01-01

Early Warning Systems (EWSs) aggregate multiple sources of data to provide timely information to stakeholders about students in need of academic support. There is an increasing need to incorporate relevant data about student behaviors into the algorithms underlying EWSs to improve predictors of students' success or failure. Many EWSs currently…

78 FR 48863 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Comment Request; Evaluation of the Early Warning and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-12

... DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION [Docket No.: ED-2013-ICCD-0106] Agency Information Collection Activities; Comment Request; Evaluation of the Early Warning and Intervention Monitoring System AGENCY: Institute of... Intervention Monitoring System. OMB Control Number: 1850-NEW. Type of Review: A new information collection...

Seismic Monitoring of Permafrost During Controlled Thaw: An Active-Source Experiment Using a Surface Orbital Vibrator and Fiber-Optic DAS Arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dou, S.; Wood, T.; Lindsey, N.; Ajo Franklin, J. B.; Freifeld, B. M.; Gelvin, A.; Morales, A.; Saari, S.; Ekblaw, I.; Wagner, A. M.; Daley, T. M.; Robertson, M.; Martin, E. R.; Ulrich, C.; Bjella, K.

2016-12-01

Thawing of permafrost can cause ground deformations that threaten the integrity of civil infrastructure. It is essential to develop early warning systems that can identify critically warmed permafrost and issue warnings for hazard prevention and control. Seismic methods can play a pivotal role in such systems for at least two reasons: First, seismic velocities are indicative of mechanical strength of the subsurface and thus are directly relevant to engineering properties; Second, seismic velocities in permafrost systems are sensitive to pre-thaw warming, which makes it possible to issue early warnings before the occurrence of hazardous subsidence events. However, several questions remain: What are the seismic signatures that can be effectively used for early warning of permafrost thaw? Can seismic methods provide enough warning times for hazard prevention and control? In this study, we investigate the feasibility of using permanently installed seismic networks for early warnings of permafrost thaw. We conducted continuous active-source seismic monitoring of permafrost that was under controlled heating at CRREL's Fairbanks permafrost experiment station. We used a permanently installed surface orbital vibrator (SOV) as source and surface-trenched DAS arrays as receivers. The SOV is characterized by its excellent repeatability, automated operation, high energy level, and the rich frequency content (10-100 Hz) of the generated wavefields. The fiber-optic DAS arrays allow continuous recording of seismic data with dense spatial sampling (1-meter channel spacing), low cost, and low maintenance. This combination of SOV-DAS provides unique seismic datasets for observing time-lapse changes of warming permafrost at the field scale, hence providing an observational basis for design and development of early warning systems for permafrost thaw.

Toward a national early warning system for forest disturbances using remotely sensed canopy phenology

Treesearch

William W. Hargrove; Joseph P. Spruce; Gerald E. Gasser; Forrest M. Hoffman

2009-01-01

Imagine a national system with the ability to quickly identify forested areas under attack from insects or disease. Such an early warning system might minimize surprises such as the explosion of caterpillars referred to in the quotation above. Moderate resolution (ca. 500m) remote sensing repeated at frequent (ca. weekly) intervals could power such a monitoring system...

Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System) for Sicily

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Bonaccorso, Brunella; Gueli, Roberto; Basile, Giuseppe

2017-09-01

The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System), specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall-runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall-runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015) have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002-2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall threshold models to produce warning on a daily basis for the entire region.

Development and Use of Early Warning Systems. SLDS Spotlight

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Curtin, Jenny; Hurwitch, Bill; Olson, Tom

2012-01-01

An early warning system is a data-based tool that helps predict which students are on the right path towards eventual graduation or other grade-appropriate goals. Through such systems, stakeholders at the school and district levels can view data from a wide range of perspectives and gain a deeper understanding of student data. This "Statewide…

A Practitioner's Guide to Implementing Early Warning Systems. REL 2015-056

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frazelle, Sarah; Nagel, Aisling

2015-01-01

To stem the tide of students dropping out, many schools and districts are turning to early warning systems (EWS) that signal whether a student is at risk of not graduating from high school. While some research exists about establishing these systems, there is little information about the actual implementation strategies that are being used across…

[Ecological security early-warning in Zhoushan Islands based on variable weight model].

PubMed

Zhou, Bin; Zhong, Lin-sheng; Chen, Tian; Zhou, Rui

2015-06-01

Ecological security early warning, as an important content of ecological security research, is of indicating significance in maintaining regional ecological security. Based on driving force, pressure, state, impact and response (D-P-S-I-R) framework model, this paper took Zhoushan Islands in Zhejiang Province as an example to construct the ecological security early warning index system, test degrees of ecological security early warning of Zhoushan Islands from 2000 to 2012 by using the method of variable weight model, and forecast ecological security state of 2013-2018 by Markov prediction method. The results showed that the variable weight model could meet the study needs of ecological security early warning of Zhoushan Islands. There was a fluctuant rising ecological security early warning index from 0.286 to 0.484 in Zhoushan Islands between year 2000 and 2012, in which the security grade turned from "serious alert" into " medium alert" and the indicator light turned from "orange" to "yellow". The degree of ecological security warning was "medium alert" with the light of "yellow" for Zhoushan Islands from 2013 to 2018. These findings could provide a reference for ecological security maintenance of Zhoushan Islands.

Implementing drought early warning systems: policy lessons and future needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, Ana; Werner, Micha; Maia, Rodrigo; Garrote, Luis; Nyabeze, Washington

2014-05-01

Drought forecasting and Warning provides the potential of reducing impacts to society due to drought events. The implementation of effective drought forecasting and warning, however, requires not only science to support reliable forecasting, but also adequate policy and societal response. Here we propose a protocol to develop drought forecasting and early warning based in the international cooperation of African and European institutions in the DEWFORA project (EC, 7th Framework Programme). The protocol includes four major phases that address the scientific knowledge and the social capacity to use the knowledge: (a) What is the science available? Evaluating how signs of impending drought can be detected and predicted, defining risk levels, and analysing of the signs of drought in an integrated vulnerability approach. (b) What are the societal capacities? In this the institutional framework that enables policy development is evaluated. The protocol gathers information on vulnerability and pending hazard in advance so that early warnings can be declared at sufficient lead time and drought mitigation planning can be implemented at an early stage. (c) How can science be translated into policy? Linking science indicators into the actions/interventions that society needs to implement, and evaluating how policy is implemented. Key limitations to planning for drought are the social capacities to implement early warning systems. Vulnerability assessment contributes to identify these limitations and therefore provides crucial information to policy development. Based on the assessment of vulnerability we suggest thresholds for management actions to respond to drought forecasts and link predictive indicators to relevant potential mitigation strategies. Vulnerability assessment is crucial to identify relief, coping and management responses that contribute to a more resilient society. (d) How can society benefit from the forecast? Evaluating how information is provided to potentially affected groups, and how mitigation strategies can be taken in response. This paper presents an outline of the protocol that was developed in the DEWFORA project, outlining the complementary roles of science, policy and societal uptake in effective drought forecasting and warning. A consensus on the need to emphasise the social component of early warning was reached when testing the DEWFORA early warning system protocol among experts from 18 countries.

A hazard-independent approach for the standardised multi-channel dissemination of warning messages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esbri Palomares, M. A.; Hammitzsch, M.; Lendholt, M.

2012-04-01

The tsunami disaster affecting the Indian Ocean region on Christmas 2004 demonstrated very clearly the shortcomings in tsunami detection, public warning processes as well as intergovernmental warning message exchange in the Indian Ocean region. In that regard, early warning systems require that the dissemination of early warning messages has to be executed in way that ensures that the message delivery is timely; the message content is understandable, usable and accurate. To that end, diverse and multiple dissemination channels must be used to increase the chance of the messages reaching all affected persons in a hazard scenario. In addition to this, usage of internationally accepted standards for the warning dissemination such as the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) and Emergency Data Exchange Language (EDXL) Distribution Element specified by the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS) increase the interoperability among different warning systems enabling thus the concept of system-of-systems proposed by GEOSS. The project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), co-funded by the European Commission under the 6th Framework Programme, aims at strengthening the early warning capacities by building an innovative generation of interoperable tsunami early warning systems based on the above mentioned concepts following a Service-oriented Architecture (SOA) approach. The project focuses on the downstream part of the hazard information processing where customized, user-tailored warning messages and alerts flow from the warning centre to the responsible authorities and/or the public with their different needs and responsibilities. The information logistics services within DEWS generate tailored EDXL-DE/CAP warning messages for each user that must receive the message according to their preferences, e.g., settings for language, interested areas, dissemination channels, etc.. However, the significant difference in the implementation and capabilities of different dissemination channels such as SMS, email and television, have bearing on the information processing required for delivery and consumption of a DEWS EDXL-DE/CAP message over each dissemination channel. These messages may include additional information in the form of maps, graphs, documents, sensor observations, etc. Therefore, the generated messages are pre-processed by channel adaptors in the information dissemination services converting it into a format that is suitable for end-to-end delivery over the dissemination channels without any semantic distortion. The approach followed by DEWS for disseminating warnings not only relies on traditional communication ways used by the already established early warnings such as the delivery of faxes and phone calls but takes into consideration the use of other broadly used communication channels such as SMS, email, narrowcast and broadcast television, instant messaging, Voice over IP, and radio. It also takes advantage of social media channels like RSS feeds, Facebook, Twitter, etc., enabling a multiplier effect, like in the case of radio and television, and thus allowing to create mash-ups by aggregating other sources of information to the original message. Finally, status information is also important in order to assess and understand whether the process of disseminating the warning to the message consumers has been successfully completed or the process failed at some point of the dissemination chain. To that end, CAP-based messages generated within the information dissemination services provide the semantics for those fields that are of interest within the context of reporting the warning dissemination status in DEWS.

Early warning indicators for monitoring the process failure of anaerobic digestion system of food waste.

PubMed

Li, Lei; He, Qingming; Wei, Yunmei; He, Qin; Peng, Xuya

2014-11-01

To determine reliable state parameters which could be used as early warning indicators of process failure due to the acidification of anaerobic digestion of food waste, three mesophilic anaerobic digesters of food waste with different operation conditions were investigated. Such parameters as gas production, methane content, pH, concentrations of volatile fatty acid (VFA), alkalinity and their combined indicators were evaluated. Results revealed that operation conditions significantly affect the responses of parameters and thus the optimal early warning indicators of each reactor differ from each other. None of the single indicators was universally valid for all the systems. The universally valid indicators should combine several parameters to supply complementary information. A combination of total VFA, the ratio of VFA to total alkalinity (VFA/TA) and the ratio of bicarbonate alkalinity to total alkalinity (BA/TA) can reflect the metabolism of the digesting system and realize rapid and effective early warning. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Landslide susceptibility and early warning model for shallow landslide in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Chun-Ming; Wei, Lun-Wei; Chi, Chun-Chi; Chang, Kan-Tsun; Lee, Chyi-Tyi

2017-04-01

This study aims to development a regional susceptibility model and warning threshold as well as the establishment of early warning system in order to prevent and reduce the losses caused by rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Taiwan. For the purpose of practical application, Taiwan is divided into nearly 185,000 slope units. The susceptibility and warning threshold of each slope unit were analyzed as basic information for disaster prevention. The geological characteristics, mechanism and the occurrence time of landslides were recorded for more than 900 cases through field investigation and interview of residents in order to discuss the relationship between landslides and rainfall. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the landslide susceptibility and an I3-R24 rainfall threshold model was proposed for the early warning of landslides. The validations of recent landslide cases show that the model was suitable for the warning of regional shallow landslide and most of the cases can be warned 3 to 6 hours in advanced. We also propose a slope unit area weighted method to establish local rainfall threshold on landslide for vulnerable villages in order to improve the practical application. Validations of the local rainfall threshold also show a good agreement to the occurrence time reported by newspapers. Finally, a web based "Rainfall-induced Landslide Early Warning System" is built and connected to real-time radar rainfall data so that landslide real-time warning can be achieved. Keywords: landslide, susceptibility analysis, rainfall threshold

Experience from three years of local capacity development for tsunami early warning in Indonesia: challenges, lessons and the way ahead

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spahn, H.; Hoppe, M.; Vidiarina, H. D.; Usdianto, B.

2010-07-01

Five years after the 2004 tsunami, a lot has been achieved to make communities in Indonesia better prepared for tsunamis. This achievement is primarily linked to the development of the Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (InaTEWS). However, many challenges remain. This paper describes the experience with local capacity development for tsunami early warning (TEW) in Indonesia, based on the activities of a pilot project. TEW in Indonesia is still new to disaster management institutions and the public, as is the paradigm of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). The technology components of InaTEWS will soon be fully operational. The major challenge for the system is the establishment of clear institutional arrangements and capacities at national and local levels that support the development of public and institutional response capability at the local level. Due to a lack of information and national guidance, most local actors have a limited understanding of InaTEWS and DRR, and often show little political will and priority to engage in TEW. The often-limited capacity of local governments is contrasted by strong engagement of civil society organisations that opt for early warning based on natural warning signs rather than technology-based early warning. Bringing together the various actors, developing capacities in a multi-stakeholder cooperation for an effective warning system are key challenges for the end-to-end approach of InaTEWS. The development of local response capability needs to receive the same commitment as the development of the system's technology components. Public understanding of and trust in the system comes with knowledge and awareness on the part of the end users of the system and convincing performance on the part of the public service provider. Both sides need to be strengthened. This requires the integration of TEW into DRR, clear institutional arrangements, national guidance and intensive support for capacity development at local levels as well as dialogue between the various actors.

Availability and Reliability of Disaster Early Warning Systems and the IT Infrastructure Library

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wächter, J.; Loewe, P.

2012-12-01

The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 caused an information catastrophy. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages. A key challenge stems from the main objective of the IOC Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from sensors to Warning Centers, has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. This task is complicated by the fact that in term of ICT system life cycles tsunami are very rare event resulting in very difficult framing conditions to safeguard the availability and reliability of TWS. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). This ongoing project focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application. All technical development in TRIDEC is based on mature system architecture models and industry standards. The use of standards applies also to the operation of individual TRIDEC reference installations and their interlinking into an integrated service infrastructure for supranational warning services: A set of best practices for IT service management is used to align the TEWS software services with the requirements by the Early Warning Centre management by defining Service Level Agreements (SLA) and ensuring appliance. For this, the concept of service lifecycles is adapted for the TEWS domain, which is laid out in the IT Infrastructure Library (ITIL) by the United Kingdom's Office of Government Commerce (OGC). The cyclic procedures, tasks and checklists described by ITIL are used to establish a baseline to plan, implement, and maintain TEWS service components in the long run. This allows to ensure compliance with given international TEWS standards and to measure improvement of the provided services against a gold-standard.

Developing a drought early warning information system for coastal ecosystems in the Carolinas

Treesearch

Kirsten Lackstrom; Amanda Brennan; Paul Conrads; Lisa Darby; Kirstin Dow; Daniel Tuford

2016-01-01

The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and the Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments (CISA), a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)- funded Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program, are partnering to develop and support a Carolinas Drought Early Warning System pilot program. Research and projects focus on...

On Track for Success: The Use of Early Warning Indicator and Intervention Systems to Build a Grad Nation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bruce, Mary; Bridgeland, John M.; Fox, Joanna Hornig; Balfanz, Robert

2011-01-01

Over the past decade, schools, districts, and states have become increasingly savvy with data collection and analysis to drive student outcomes. The development and use of Early Warning Indicator and Intervention Systems (EWS) are at the cutting edge of the data- driven, outcomes-focused, high-impact education movement. These systems can increase…

Four Signs Your District Is Ready for an Early Warning System. A Discussion Guide

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Regional Educational Laboratory Pacific, 2016

2016-01-01

Although high school graduation rates continue to rise in the United States, reaching 81 percent in the 2012-2013 school year (U.S. Department of Education, 2015), dropout remains a pervasive issue for education systems across the nation. In recent years, Early Warning Systems (EWS), which utilize administrative data to identify students at risk…

Demonstration of the Cascadia G‐FAST geodetic earthquake early warning system for the Nisqually, Washington, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crowell, Brendan; Schmidt, David; Bodin, Paul; Vidale, John; Gomberg, Joan S.; Hartog, Renate; Kress, Victor; Melbourne, Tim; Santillian, Marcelo; Minson, Sarah E.; Jamison, Dylan

2016-01-01

A prototype earthquake early warning (EEW) system is currently in development in the Pacific Northwest. We have taken a two‐stage approach to EEW: (1) detection and initial characterization using strong‐motion data with the Earthquake Alarm Systems (ElarmS) seismic early warning package and (2) the triggering of geodetic modeling modules using Global Navigation Satellite Systems data that help provide robust estimates of large‐magnitude earthquakes. In this article we demonstrate the performance of the latter, the Geodetic First Approximation of Size and Time (G‐FAST) geodetic early warning system, using simulated displacements for the 2001Mw 6.8 Nisqually earthquake. We test the timing and performance of the two G‐FAST source characterization modules, peak ground displacement scaling, and Centroid Moment Tensor‐driven finite‐fault‐slip modeling under ideal, latent, noisy, and incomplete data conditions. We show good agreement between source parameters computed by G‐FAST with previously published and postprocessed seismic and geodetic results for all test cases and modeling modules, and we discuss the challenges with integration into the U.S. Geological Survey’s ShakeAlert EEW system.

Early warning reporting categories analysis of recall and complaints data.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-12-31

This analysis was performed to assist the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) in identifying components and systems to be included in early warning reporting (EWR) categories that would be based upon historical safety-related recal...

Design Principles for resilient cyber-physical Early Warning Systems - Challenges, Experiences, Design Patterns, and Best Practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gensch, S.; Wächter, J.; Schnor, B.

2014-12-01

Early warning systems (EWS) are safety-critical IT-infrastructures that serve the purpose of potentially saving lives or assets by observing real-world phenomena and issuing timely warning products to authorities and communities. An EWS consists of sensors, communication networks, data centers, simulation platforms, and dissemination channels. The components of this cyber-physical system may all be affected by both natural hazards and malfunctions of components alike. Resilience engineering so far has mostly been applied to safety-critical systems and processes in transportation (aviation, automobile), construction and medicine. Early warning systems need equivalent techniques to compensate for failures, and furthermore means to adapt to changing threats, emerging technology and research findings. We present threats and pitfalls from our experiences with the German and Indonesian tsunami early warning system, as well as architectural, technological and organizational concepts employed that can enhance an EWS' resilience. The current EWS is comprised of a multi-type sensor data upstream part, different processing and analysis engines, a decision support system, and various warning dissemination channels. Each subsystem requires a set of approaches towards ensuring stable functionality across system layer boundaries, including also institutional borders. Not only must services be available, but also produce correct results. Most sensors are distributed components with restricted resources, communication channels and power supply. An example for successful resilience engineering is the power capacity based functional management for buoy and tide gauge stations. We discuss various fault-models like cause and effect models on linear pathways, interaction of multiple events, complex and non-linear interaction of assumedly reliable subsystems and fault tolerance means implemented to tackle these threats.

Assessment of early warning system performance and improvements since it is in operational phase in Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ionescu, Constantin; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Ortansa Cioflan, Carmen

2017-04-01

Earthquake represents a major natural disaster for Romanian territory. The main goal following the occurrence of a strong earthquake is to minimize the total number of fatalities. A rapid early warning system (REWS) was developed in Romania in order to provide 25-35 seconds warning time to Bucharest facilities for the earthquakes with M>5.0. The system consists of four components: a network of strong motion sensors installed in the epicentral area, a redundant communication network, an automatic analyzing system located in the Romanian Data Centre and an alert distribution system. The detection algorithm is based on the magnitude computation using strong motion data and rapid evaluation and scaling relation between the maximum P-wave acceleration measured in the epicentral area and the higher ground motion amplitude recorded in Bucharest. In order to reduce the damages caused by earthquakes, the exploitation of the up to date technology is very important. The information is the key point in the disaster management, and the internet is one of the most used instrument, implying also low costs. The Rapid Early Warning System was expanded to cover all countries affected by major earthquakes originating in the Vrancea seismic area and reduce their impact on existing installations of national interest in neighbouring Romania and elsewhere. REWS provides an efficient instrument for prevention and reaction based on the integrated system for seismic detection in South-Eastern Europe. REWS has been operational since 2013 and sends alert the authorities, hazardous facilities in Romania and Bulgaria (NPP, emergency response agencies etc.) and to public via twitter and some smartphone applications developed in the house. Also, NIEP is part of the UNESCO initiative case on developing a platform on earthquake early warning systems (IP-MEP) that aims to promote and strengthen the development of earthquake early warning systems in earthquake-prone regions of the world by sharing scientific knowledge, capacity building and international cooperation.

Performance Analysis of a Citywide Real-time Landslide Early Warning System in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Joon-Young; Lee, Seung-Rae; Kang, Sinhang; Lee, Deuk-hwan; Nedumpallile Vasu, Nikhil

2017-04-01

Rainfall-induced landslide has been one of the major disasters in Korea since the beginning of 21st century when the global climate change started to give rise to the growth of the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events. In order to mitigate the increasing damage to properties and loss of lives and to provide an effective tool for public officials to manage the landslide disasters, a real-time landslide early warning system with an advanced concept has been developed by taking into account for Busan, the second largest metropolitan city in Korea, as an operational test-bed. The system provides with warning information based on a five-level alert scheme (Normal, Attention, Watch, Alert, and Emergency) using the forecasted/observed rainfall data or the data obtained from ground monitoring (volumetric water content and matric suction). The alert levels are determined by applying seven different thresholds in a step-wise manner following a decision tree. In the pursuit of improved reliability of an early warning level assigned to a specific area, the system makes assessments repetitively using the thresholds of different theoretical backgrounds including statistical(empirical), physically-based, and mathematical analyses as well as direct measurement-based approaches. By mapping the distribution of the five early warning levels determined independently for each of tens of millions grids covering the entire mountainous area of Busan, the regional-scale system can also provide with the early warning information for a specific local area. The fact that the highest warning level is determined by using a concept of a numerically-modelled potential debris-flow risk is another distinctive feature of the system. This study tested the system performance by applying it for four previous rainy seasons in order to validate the operational applicability. During the rainy seasons of 2009, 2011, and 2014, the number of landslides recorded throughout Busan's territory reached 156, 64, and 37, respectively. In 2016, only three landslides were recorded even though the city experienced a couple of heavy rainfall events during the rainy season. The system performance test results show good agreement with the observation results for the past rainfall events. It seems that the system can also provide with reliable warning information for the future rainfall events.

How one might miss early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data: A systematic study of two major currency pairs

PubMed Central

Ciamarra, Massimo Pica; Cheong, Siew Ann

2018-01-01

There is growing interest in the use of critical slowing down and critical fluctuations as early warning signals for critical transitions in different complex systems. However, while some studies found them effective, others found the opposite. In this paper, we investigated why this might be so, by testing three commonly used indicators: lag-1 autocorrelation, variance, and low-frequency power spectrum at anticipating critical transitions in the very-high-frequency time series data of the Australian Dollar-Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc-Japanese Yen exchange rates. Besides testing rising trends in these indicators at a strict level of confidence using the Kendall-tau test, we also required statistically significant early warning signals to be concurrent in the three indicators, which must rise to appreciable values. We then found for our data set the optimum parameters for discovering critical transitions, and showed that the set of critical transitions found is generally insensitive to variations in the parameters. Suspecting that negative results in the literature are the results of low data frequencies, we created time series with time intervals over three orders of magnitude from the raw data, and tested them for early warning signals. Early warning signals can be reliably found only if the time interval of the data is shorter than the time scale of critical transitions in our complex system of interest. Finally, we compared the set of time windows with statistically significant early warning signals with the set of time windows followed by large movements, to conclude that the early warning signals indeed provide reliable information on impending critical transitions. This reliability becomes more compelling statistically the more events we test. PMID:29538373

How one might miss early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data: A systematic study of two major currency pairs.

PubMed

Wen, Haoyu; Ciamarra, Massimo Pica; Cheong, Siew Ann

2018-01-01

There is growing interest in the use of critical slowing down and critical fluctuations as early warning signals for critical transitions in different complex systems. However, while some studies found them effective, others found the opposite. In this paper, we investigated why this might be so, by testing three commonly used indicators: lag-1 autocorrelation, variance, and low-frequency power spectrum at anticipating critical transitions in the very-high-frequency time series data of the Australian Dollar-Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc-Japanese Yen exchange rates. Besides testing rising trends in these indicators at a strict level of confidence using the Kendall-tau test, we also required statistically significant early warning signals to be concurrent in the three indicators, which must rise to appreciable values. We then found for our data set the optimum parameters for discovering critical transitions, and showed that the set of critical transitions found is generally insensitive to variations in the parameters. Suspecting that negative results in the literature are the results of low data frequencies, we created time series with time intervals over three orders of magnitude from the raw data, and tested them for early warning signals. Early warning signals can be reliably found only if the time interval of the data is shorter than the time scale of critical transitions in our complex system of interest. Finally, we compared the set of time windows with statistically significant early warning signals with the set of time windows followed by large movements, to conclude that the early warning signals indeed provide reliable information on impending critical transitions. This reliability becomes more compelling statistically the more events we test.

DISTANT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM for Tsunamis - A wide-area and multi-hazard approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammitzsch, Martin; Lendholt, Matthias; Wächter, Joachim

2010-05-01

The DEWS (Distant Early Warning System) [1] project, funded under the 6th Framework Programme of the European Union, has the objective to create a new generation of interoperable early warning systems based on an open sensor platform. This platform integrates OGC [2] SWE [3] compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of hazardous events, like earthquakes, sea level anomalies, ocean floor occurrences, and ground displacements in the case of tsunami early warning. Based on the upstream information flow DEWS focuses on the improvement of downstream capacities of warning centres especially by improving information logistics for effective and targeted warning message aggregation for a multilingual environment. Multiple telecommunication channels will be used for the dissemination of warning messages. Wherever possible, existing standards have been integrated. The Command and Control User Interface (CCUI), a rich client application based on Eclipse RCP (Rich Client Platform) [4] and the open source GIS uDig [5], integrates various OGC services. Using WMS (Web Map Service) [6] and WFS (Web Feature Service) [7] spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture and to integrate a simulation system via WPS (Web Processing Service) [8] to identify affected areas. Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS [9] CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) [10] standard together with addressing information defined via EDXL-DE (Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element) [11]. Internal interfaces are realized with SOAP [12] web services. Based on results of GITEWS [13] - in particular the GITEWS Tsunami Service Bus [14] - the DEWS approach provides an implementation for tsunami early warning systems but other geological paradigms are going to follow, e.g. volcanic eruptions or landslides. Therefore in future also multi-hazard functionality is conceivable. The specific software architecture of DEWS makes it possible to dock varying sensors to the system and to extend the CCUI with hazard specific functionality. The presentation covers the DEWS project, the system architecture and the CCUI in conjunction with details of information logistics. The DEWS Wide Area Centre connecting national centres to allow the international communication and warning exchange is presented also. REFERENCES: [1] DEWS, www.dews-online.org [2] OGC, www.opengeospatial.org [3] SWE, www.opengeospatial.org/projects/groups/sensorweb [4] Eclipse RCP, www.eclipse.org/home/categories/rcp.php [5] uDig, udig.refractions.net [6] WMS, www.opengeospatial.org/standards/wms [7] WFS, www.opengeospatial.org/standards/wfs [8] WPS, www.opengeospatial.org/standards/wps [9] OASIS, www.oasis-open.org [10] CAP, www.oasis-open.org/specs/#capv1.1 [11] EDXL-DE, www.oasis-open.org/specs/#edxlde-v1.0 [12] SOAP, www.w3.org/TR/soap [13] GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) is a project of the German Federal Government to aid the recon¬struction of the tsunami-prone Indian Ocean region, www.gitews.org [14] The Tsunami Service Bus is the GITEWS sensor system integration platform offering standardised services for the detection and monitoring of tsunamis

Electric Field Sensor for Lightning Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Premlet, B.; Mohammed, R.; Sabu, S.; Joby, N. E.

2017-12-01

Electric field mills are used popularly for atmospheric electric field measurements. Atmospheric Electric Field variation is the primary signature for Lightning Early Warning systems. There is a characteristic change in the atmospheric electric field before lightning during a thundercloud formation.A voltage controlled variable capacitance is being proposed as a method for non-contacting measurement of electric fields. A varactor based mini electric field measurement system is developed, to detect any change in the atmospheric electric field and to issue lightning early warning system. Since this is a low-cost device, this can be used for developing countries which are facing adversities. A network of these devices can help in forming a spatial map of electric field variations over a region, and this can be used for more improved atmospheric electricity studies in developing countries.

Vantage point - Early warning flaws.

PubMed

Swinden, Donna

2014-08-28

USING AN EARLY warning score (EWS) system should improve the detection of acutely deteriorating patients. Under such a system, a score is allocated to each of six physiological measurements including respiratory rate and oxygen saturations, which are aggregated to produce an overall score. An aggregated score of seven or higher prompts nursing staff to refer a patient for emergency assessment.

Early Warning Indicator System: Supporting K-12 Educators in the Identification, Support, and Monitoring of At-Risk Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2016

2016-01-01

A rise in data availability gives educators the opportunity to tailor instructional practices and interventions to student needs and invest resources in areas where students require the most support. Massachusetts developed the Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS), which synthesizes the wealth of student data available in the state, including…

Learning by Teaching: Undergraduate Engineering Students Improving a Community's Response Capability to an Early Warning System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suvannatsiri, Ratchasak; Santichaianant, Kitidech; Murphy, Elizabeth

2015-01-01

This paper reports on a project in which students designed, constructed and tested a model of an existing early warning system with simulation of debris flow in a context of a landslide. Students also assessed rural community members' knowledge of this system and subsequently taught them to estimate the time needed for evacuation of the community…

Delivery of State-Provided Predictive Analytics to Schools: Wisconsin's DEWS and the Proposed EWIMS Dashboard. WCER Working Paper No. 2016-3

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clune, Bill; Knowles, Jared

2016-01-01

Since 2012, the Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction (DPI) has maintained a statewide predictive analytics system providing schools with an early warning in middle grades of students at risk for not completing high school. DPI is considering extending and enhancing this system, known as the Dropout Early Warning System (DEWS). The proposed…

Establishing an early warning alert and response network following the Solomon Islands tsunami in 2013.

PubMed

Bilve, Augustine; Nogareda, Francisco; Joshua, Cynthia; Ross, Lester; Betcha, Christopher; Durski, Kara; Fleischl, Juliet; Nilles, Eric

2014-11-01

On 6 February 2013, an 8.0 magnitude earthquake generated a tsunami that struck the Santa Cruz Islands, Solomon Islands, killing 10 people and displacing over 4700. A post-disaster assessment of the risk of epidemic disease transmission recommended the implementation of an early warning alert and response network (EWARN) to rapidly detect, assess and respond to potential outbreaks in the aftermath of the tsunami. Almost 40% of the Santa Cruz Islands' population were displaced by the disaster, and living in cramped temporary camps with poor or absent sanitation facilities and insufficient access to clean water. There was no early warning disease surveillance system. By 25 February, an EWARN was operational in five health facilities that served 90% of the displaced population. Eight priority diseases or syndromes were reported weekly; unexpected health events were reported immediately. Between 25 February and 19 May, 1177 target diseases or syndrome cases were reported. Seven alerts were investigated. No sustained transmission or epidemics were identified. Reporting compliance was 85%. The EWARN was then transitioned to the routine four-syndrome early warning disease surveillance system. It was necessary to conduct a detailed assessment to evaluate the risk and potential impact of serious infectious disease outbreaks, to assess whether and how enhanced early warning disease surveillance should be implemented. Local capacities and available resources should be considered in planning EWARN implementation. An EWARN can be an opportunity to establish or strengthen early warning disease surveillance capabilities.

Linking Research to Practice: FEWS NET and Its Use of Satellite Remote Sensing Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.; Brickley, Elizabeth B.

2011-01-01

The purpose of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is to collaborate with international, regional and national partners to provide timely and rigorous early warning and vulnerability information on emerging and evolving food security issues

Relation between stability and resilience determines the performance of early warning signals under different environmental drivers.

PubMed

Dai, Lei; Korolev, Kirill S; Gore, Jeff

2015-08-11

Shifting patterns of temporal fluctuations have been found to signal critical transitions in a variety of systems, from ecological communities to human physiology. However, failure of these early warning signals in some systems calls for a better understanding of their limitations. In particular, little is known about the generality of early warning signals in different deteriorating environments. In this study, we characterized how multiple environmental drivers influence the dynamics of laboratory yeast populations, which was previously shown to display alternative stable states [Dai et al., Science, 2012]. We observed that both the coefficient of variation and autocorrelation increased before population collapse in two slowly deteriorating environments, one with a rising death rate and the other one with decreasing nutrient availability. We compared the performance of early warning signals across multiple environments as "indicators for loss of resilience." We find that the varying performance is determined by how a system responds to changes in a specific driver, which can be captured by a relation between stability (recovery rate) and resilience (size of the basin of attraction). Furthermore, we demonstrate that the positive correlation between stability and resilience, as the essential assumption of indicators based on critical slowing down, can break down in this system when multiple environmental drivers are changed simultaneously. Our results suggest that the stability-resilience relation needs to be better understood for the application of early warning signals in different scenarios.

Relation between stability and resilience determines the performance of early warning signals under different environmental drivers

PubMed Central

Dai, Lei; Korolev, Kirill S.; Gore, Jeff

2015-01-01

Shifting patterns of temporal fluctuations have been found to signal critical transitions in a variety of systems, from ecological communities to human physiology. However, failure of these early warning signals in some systems calls for a better understanding of their limitations. In particular, little is known about the generality of early warning signals in different deteriorating environments. In this study, we characterized how multiple environmental drivers influence the dynamics of laboratory yeast populations, which was previously shown to display alternative stable states [Dai et al., Science, 2012]. We observed that both the coefficient of variation and autocorrelation increased before population collapse in two slowly deteriorating environments, one with a rising death rate and the other one with decreasing nutrient availability. We compared the performance of early warning signals across multiple environments as “indicators for loss of resilience.” We find that the varying performance is determined by how a system responds to changes in a specific driver, which can be captured by a relation between stability (recovery rate) and resilience (size of the basin of attraction). Furthermore, we demonstrate that the positive correlation between stability and resilience, as the essential assumption of indicators based on critical slowing down, can break down in this system when multiple environmental drivers are changed simultaneously. Our results suggest that the stability–resilience relation needs to be better understood for the application of early warning signals in different scenarios. PMID:26216946

Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts: a multiple method evaluation for management application.

PubMed

Lindegren, Martin; Dakos, Vasilis; Gröger, Joachim P; Gårdmark, Anna; Kornilovs, Georgs; Otto, Saskia A; Möllmann, Christian

2012-01-01

Critical transitions between alternative stable states have been shown to occur across an array of complex systems. While our ability to identify abrupt regime shifts in natural ecosystems has improved, detection of potential early-warning signals previous to such shifts is still very limited. Using real monitoring data of a key ecosystem component, we here apply multiple early-warning indicators in order to assess their ability to forewarn a major ecosystem regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea. We show that some indicators and methods can result in clear early-warning signals, while other methods may have limited utility in ecosystem-based management as they show no or weak potential for early-warning. We therefore propose a multiple method approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts in monitoring data that may be useful in informing timely management actions in the face of ecosystem change.

Early Detection of Ecosystem Regime Shifts: A Multiple Method Evaluation for Management Application

PubMed Central

Lindegren, Martin; Dakos, Vasilis; Gröger, Joachim P.; Gårdmark, Anna; Kornilovs, Georgs; Otto, Saskia A.; Möllmann, Christian

2012-01-01

Critical transitions between alternative stable states have been shown to occur across an array of complex systems. While our ability to identify abrupt regime shifts in natural ecosystems has improved, detection of potential early-warning signals previous to such shifts is still very limited. Using real monitoring data of a key ecosystem component, we here apply multiple early-warning indicators in order to assess their ability to forewarn a major ecosystem regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea. We show that some indicators and methods can result in clear early-warning signals, while other methods may have limited utility in ecosystem-based management as they show no or weak potential for early-warning. We therefore propose a multiple method approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts in monitoring data that may be useful in informing timely management actions in the face of ecosystem change. PMID:22808007

Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability - Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pozzi, Will; Sheffield, Justin; Stefanski, Robert; Cripe, Douglas; Pulwarty, Roger; Vogt, Jurgen V.; Heim, Richard R., Jr.; Brewer, Michael J.; Svoboda, Mark; Westerhoff, Rogier;

Evaluation of Intersection Collision Warning Systems in Minnesota

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-10-01

The Minnesota Department of Transportation (MnDOT) is investing significant resources in intersection collision warning systems (ICWS) based on early indications of effectiveness. However, the effectiveness is not well documented, and negative change...

The Lake Victoria Intense Storm Early Warning System (VIEWS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-04-01

Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on NWP, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that also false alarms contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

Developing effective warning systems: Ongoing research at Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonard, Graham S.; Johnston, David M.; Paton, Douglas; Christianson, Amy; Becker, Julia; Keys, Harry

2008-05-01

PurposeThis paper examines the unique challenges to volcanic risk management associated with having a ski area on an active volcano. Using a series of simulated eruption/lahar events at Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand, as a context, a model of risk management that integrates warning system design and technology, risk perceptions and the human response is explored. Principal resultsDespite increases in the observed audibility and comprehension of the warning message, recall of public education content, and people's awareness of volcanic risk, a persistent minority of the public continued to demonstrate only moderate awareness of the correct actions to take during a warning and failed to respond effectively. A relationship between level of staff competence and correct public response allowed the level of public response to be used to identify residual risk and additional staff training needs. The quality of staff awareness, action and decision-making has emerged as a critical factor, from detailed staff and public interviews and from exercise observations. Staff actions are especially important for mobilising correct public response at Ruapehu ski areas due to the transient nature of the visitor population. Introduction of education material and staff training strategies that included the development of emergency decision-making competencies improved knowledge of correct actions, and increased the proportion of people moving out of harm's way during blind tests. Major conclusionsWarning effectiveness is a function of more than good hazard knowledge and the generation and notification of an early warning message. For warning systems to be effective, these factors must be complemented by accurate knowledge of risk and risk management actions. By combining the Ruapehu findings with those of other warning system studies in New Zealand, and internationally, a practical five-step model for effective early warning systems is discussed. These steps must be based upon sound and regularly updated underpinning science and be tied to formal effectiveness evaluation, which is fed back into system improvements. The model presented emphasises human considerations, the development of which arguably require even more effort than the hardware components of early warning systems.

Simulated NASA Satellite Data Products for the NOAA Integrated Coral Reef Observation Network/Coral Reef Early Warning System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estep, Leland; Spruce, Joseph P.

2007-01-01

This RPC (Rapid Prototyping Capability) experiment will demonstrate the use of VIIRS (Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite) and LDCM (Landsat Data Continuity Mission) sensor data as significant input to the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) ICON/ CREWS (Integrated Coral Reef Observation System/Coral Reef Early Warning System). The project affects the Coastal Management Program Element of the Applied Sciences Program.

Comparing Methodologies for Developing an Early Warning System: Classification and Regression Tree Model versus Logistic Regression. REL 2015-077

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koon, Sharon; Petscher, Yaacov

2015-01-01

The purpose of this report was to explicate the use of logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) analysis in the development of early warning systems. It was motivated by state education leaders' interest in maintaining high classification accuracy while simultaneously improving practitioner understanding of the rules by…

Of Needles and Haystacks: Building an Accurate Statewide Dropout Early Warning System in Wisconsin

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knowles, Jared E.

2015-01-01

The state of Wisconsin has one of the highest four year graduation rates in the nation, but deep disparities among student subgroups remain. To address this the state has created the Wisconsin Dropout Early Warning System (DEWS), a predictive model of student dropout risk for students in grades six through nine. The Wisconsin DEWS is in use…

Geospatiotemporal data mining in an early warning system for forest threats in the United States

Treesearch

F.M. Hoffman; R.T. Mills; J. Kumar; S.S. Vulli; W.W. Hargrove

2010-01-01

We investigate the potential of geospatiotemporal data mining of multi-year land surface phenology data (250 m Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in this study) for the conterminous United States as part of an early warning system to identify threats to forest ecosystems. Cluster...

Earthquake Early Warning ShakeAlert System: Testing and certification platform

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Kohler, Monica D.; Given, Douglas; Guiwits, Stephen; Andrews, Jennifer; Meier, Men-Andrin; Ahmad, Mohammad; Henson, Ivan; Hartog, Renate; Smith, Deborah

2017-01-01

Earthquake early warning systems provide warnings to end users of incoming moderate to strong ground shaking from earthquakes. An earthquake early warning system, ShakeAlert, is providing alerts to beta end users in the western United States, specifically California, Oregon, and Washington. An essential aspect of the earthquake early warning system is the development of a framework to test modifications to code to ensure functionality and assess performance. In 2016, a Testing and Certification Platform (TCP) was included in the development of the Production Prototype version of ShakeAlert. The purpose of the TCP is to evaluate the robustness of candidate code that is proposed for deployment on ShakeAlert Production Prototype servers. TCP consists of two main components: a real‐time in situ test that replicates the real‐time production system and an offline playback system to replay test suites. The real‐time tests of system performance assess code optimization and stability. The offline tests comprise a stress test of candidate code to assess if the code is production ready. The test suite includes over 120 events including local, regional, and teleseismic historic earthquakes, recentering and calibration events, and other anomalous and potentially problematic signals. Two assessments of alert performance are conducted. First, point‐source assessments are undertaken to compare magnitude, epicentral location, and origin time with the Advanced National Seismic System Comprehensive Catalog, as well as to evaluate alert latency. Second, we describe assessment of the quality of ground‐motion predictions at end‐user sites by comparing predicted shaking intensities to ShakeMaps for historic events and implement a threshold‐based approach that assesses how often end users initiate the appropriate action, based on their ground‐shaking threshold. TCP has been developed to be a convenient streamlined procedure for objectively testing algorithms, and it has been designed with flexibility to accommodate significant changes in development of new or modified system code. It is expected that the TCP will continue to evolve along with the ShakeAlert system, and the framework we describe here provides one example of how earthquake early warning systems can be evaluated.

The analysis of behavior in orbit GSS two series of US early-warning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sukhov, P. P.; Epishev, V. P.; Sukhov, K. P.; Motrunych, I. I.

2016-09-01

Satellites Early Warning System Series class SBIRS US Air Force must replace on GEO early series DSP Series. During 2014-2016 the authors received more than 30 light curves "DSP-18 and "Sbirs-Geo 2". The analysis of the behavior of these satellites in orbit by a coordinate and photometric data. It is shown that for the monitoring of the Earth's surface is enough to place GEO 4 unit SBIRS across 90 deg.

An analysis of the early-warning system in emerging markets for reducing the financial crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Xiangguang; Song, Xiaozhong

2009-07-01

The large number of financial crises in emerging markets over the past ten years has left many observers, both from academia and financial institutions, puzzled by an apparent lack of homogenous causal relations between endogenous economic variables and the bursting of large financial shocks. The frequency of financial crises in the last 20 years can be attributed to the lack of a comprehensive theory of financial regulation to guide policy makers. Existing theories fail to define the range of regulatory models, the causes of regulatory failure, and how to measure and prevent it. Faulty design of regulatory models, and the lack of ongoing performance monitoring incorporating early warning systems, is disrupting economic and social development. The main aim of this article is to propose an early warning system (EWS) which purposes issuing warning signal against the possible financial crisis in the emerging market, and makes the emerging market survived the first wave of the crisis be able to continue their operation in the following years.

Looking beyond the destruction of the GLOF-Early Warning System of the Lake 513 in the Peruvian Andes by the local rural population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christine, Jurt; Vicuña, Luis; Dulce Burga, María; Huggel, Christian; Frey, Holger

2017-04-01

The news about the destruction of the early warning system of the glacial Lake 513 at the headwaters of the Chucchún catchment in Peru's Cordillera Blanca left many people perplexed. The early warning system was installed after around 40 years of glacier hazard management in the region. It was developed within a project that is widely considered as particularly successful with a close cooperation of several Peruvian institutions, the local municipality, the community and Swiss scientists. From a risk reduction point of view, the early warning system is a critical factor and its destruction by local people themselves is hardly comprehensible. Three month of fieldwork on site in the local communities of the Chucchún catchment during and after the installation of the system, including semi-structured interviews, group discussions and participatory observations as well the participation in the project allowed us to get deeper insights into the context and background of what has occurred. Here, we approach the destruction of the early warning system by analyzing different perspectives on encounters between different actors involved - local groups, scientists from Peru and Switzerland, technical staff, NGO in the field of development, representatives of governmental institutions. Such encounters between the different actors during the practice of science (e.g. doing fieldwork) or during the installation of the early warning system (as for instance in meetings on site) are crucial for overcoming gaps between scientific and local knowledge as well as between knowledge and practice. This led to new insights into the discussion of the case of destruction in Chucchún. Mutual perceptions among the groups, self-perceptions and perceptions of both visible and invisible risks shape the discourses about risks and measures in specific situations of encounters during the project. Particularly striking, however, are different perspectives on encounters in the past between representatives of groups which are now involved in the project, and how these encounters are analyzed in the actual in terms of the present and future.

Enhancing Famine Early Warning Systems with Improved Forecasts, Satellite Observations and Hydrologic Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J.; Thiaw, W. M.; Hoell, A.; Korecha, D.; McNally, A.; Shukla, S.; Arsenault, K. R.; Magadzire, T.; Novella, N.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Robjohn, M.; Pomposi, C.; Galu, G.; Rowland, J.; Budde, M. E.; Landsfeld, M. F.; Harrison, L.; Davenport, F.; Husak, G. J.; Endalkachew, E.

2017-12-01

Drought early warning science, in support of famine prevention, is a rapidly advancing field that is helping to save lives and livelihoods. In 2015-2017, a series of extreme droughts afflicted Ethiopia, Southern Africa, Eastern Africa in OND and Eastern Africa in MAM, pushing more than 50 million people into severe food insecurity. Improved drought forecasts and monitoring tools, however, helped motivate and target large and effective humanitarian responses. Here we describe new science being developed by a long-established early warning system - the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). FEWS NET is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. FEWS NET research is advancing rapidly on several fronts, providing better climate forecasts and more effective drought monitoring tools that are being used to support enhanced famine early warning. We explore the philosophy and science underlying these successes, suggesting that a modal view of climate change can support enhanced seasonal prediction. Under this modal perspective, warming of the tropical oceans may interact with natural modes of variability, like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, to enhance Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature gradients during both El Niño and La Niña-like climate states. Using empirical data and climate change simulations, we suggest that a sequence of droughts may commence in northern Ethiopia and Southern Africa with the advent of a moderate-to-strong El Niño, and then continue with La Niña/West Pacific related droughts in equatorial eastern East Africa. Scientifically, we show that a new hybrid statistical-dynamic precipitation forecast system, the FEWS NET Integrated Forecast System (FIFS), based on reformulations of the Global Ensemble Forecast System weather forecasts and National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal climate predictions, can effectively anticipate recent East and Southern African drought events. Using cross-validation, we evaluate FIFS' skill and compare it to the NMME and the International Research Institute forecasts. Our study concludes with an overview of the satellite observations provided by FEWS NET partners at NOAA, NASA, USGS, and UC Santa Barbara, and the assimilation of these products within the FEWS NET Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS).

Challenges for operational forecasting and early warning of rainfall induced landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzzetti, Fausto

2017-04-01

In many areas of the world, landslides occur every year, claiming lives and producing severe economic and environmental damage. Many of the landslides with human or economic consequences are the result of intense or prolonged rainfall. For this reason, in many areas the timely forecast of rainfall-induced landslides is of both scientific interest and social relevance. In the recent years, there has been a mounting interest and an increasing demand for operational landslide forecasting, and for associated landslide early warning systems. Despite the relevance of the problem, and the increasing interest and demand, only a few systems have been designed, and are currently operated. Inspection of the - limited - literature on operational landslide forecasting, and on the associated early warning systems, reveals that common criteria and standards for the design, the implementation, the operation, and the evaluation of the performances of the systems, are lacking. This limits the possibility to compare and to evaluate the systems critically, to identify their inherent strengths and weaknesses, and to improve the performance of the systems. Lack of common criteria and of established standards can also limit the credibility of the systems, and consequently their usefulness and potential practical impact. Landslides are very diversified phenomena, and the information and the modelling tools used to attempt landslide forecasting vary largely, depending on the type and size of the landslides, the extent of the geographical area considered, the timeframe of the forecasts, and the scope of the predictions. Consequently, systems for landslide forecasting and early warning can be designed and implemented at several different geographical scales, from the local (site or slope specific) to the regional, or even national scale. The talk focuses on regional to national scale landslide forecasting systems, and specifically on operational systems based on empirical rainfall threshold models. Building on the experience gained in designing, implementing, and operating national and regional landslide forecasting systems in Italy, and on a preliminary review of the existing literature on regional landslide early warning systems, the talk discusses concepts, limitations and challenges inherent to the design of reliable forecasting and early warning systems for rainfall-triggered landslides, the evaluation of the performances of the systems, and on problems related to the use of the forecasts and the issuing of landslide warnings. Several of the typical elements of an operational landslide forecasting system are considered, including: (i) the rainfall and landslide information used to establish the threshold models, (ii) the methods and tools used to define the empirical rainfall thresholds, and their associated uncertainty, (iii) the quality (e.g., the temporal and spatial resolution) of the rainfall information used for operational forecasting, including rain gauge and radar measurements, satellite estimates, and quantitative weather forecasts, (iv) the ancillary information used to prepare the forecasts, including e.g., the terrain subdivisions and the landslide susceptibility zonations, (v) the criteria used to transform the forecasts into landslide warnings and the methods used to communicate the warnings, and (vi) the criteria and strategies adopted to evaluate the performances of the systems, and to define minimum or optimal performance levels.

Experiences integrating autonomous components and legacy systems into tsunami early warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reißland, S.; Herrnkind, S.; Guenther, M.; Babeyko, A.; Comoglu, M.; Hammitzsch, M.

2012-04-01

Fostered by and embedded in the general development of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) the evolution of Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) shows a significant development from seismic-centred to multi-sensor system architectures using additional sensors, e.g. sea level stations for the detection of tsunami waves and GPS stations for the detection of ground displacements. Furthermore, the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources serving near real-time data not only includes sensors but also other components and systems offering services such as the delivery of feasible simulations used for forecasting in an imminent tsunami threat. In the context of the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination has been newly developed and demonstrated. In particular, standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS) have been successfully incorporated. In the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC) new developments are used to extend the existing platform to realise a component-based technology framework for building distributed TEWS. This talk will describe experiences made in GITEWS, DEWS and TRIDEC while integrating legacy stand-alone systems and newly developed special-purpose software components into TEWS using different software adapters and communication strategies to make the systems work together in a corporate infrastructure. The talk will also cover task management and data conversion between the different systems. Practical approaches and software solutions for the integration of sensors, e.g. providing seismic and sea level data, and utilisation of special-purpose components, such as simulation systems, in TEWS will be presented.

Tsunami Early Warning for the Indian Ocean Region - Status and Outlook

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauterjung, Joern; Rudloff, Alexander; Muench, Ute; Gitews Project Team

2010-05-01

The German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) for the Indian Ocean region has gone into operation in Indonesia in November 2008. The system includes a seismological network, together with GPS stations and a network of GPS buoys additionally equipped with ocean bottom pressure sensors and a tide gauge network. The different sensor systems have, for the most part, been installed and now deliver respective data either online or interactively upon request to the Warning Centre in Jakarta. Before 2011, however, the different components requires further optimization and fine tuning, local personnel needs to be trained and eventual problems in the daily operation have to be dealt with. Furthermore a company will be founded in the near future, which will guarantee a sustainable maintenance and operation of the system. This concludes the transfer from a temporarily project into a permanent service. This system established in Indonesia differs from other Tsunami Warning Systems through its application of modern scientific methods and technologies. New procedures for the fast and reliable determination of strong earthquakes, deformation monitoring by GPS, the modeling of tsunamis and the assessment of the situation have been implemented in the Warning System architecture. In particular, the direct incorporation of different sensors provides broad information already at the early stages of Early Warning thus resulting in a stable system and minimizing breakdowns and false alarms. The warning system is designed in an open and modular structure based on the most recent developments and standards of information technology. Therefore, the system can easily integrate additional sensor components to be used for other multi-hazard purposes e.g. meteorological and hydrological events. Up to now the German project group is cooperating in the Indian Ocean region with Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Iran, Yemen, Tanzania and Kenya to set up the equipment primarily for seismological monitoring and data analysis. The automatic seismic data processing software SeisComP3, is not only operational in the warning centre in Jakarta and successfully used for rapid earthquake information, but also in different Indian Ocean rim countries like the once mentioned before as well as in India, Thailand and Pakistan. Close cooperation has been established with Australia, South Africa and India for the real-time exchange mainly of seismological and sea level data.

Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with Near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products included in the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spruce, Joseph; Hargrove, William W.; Gasser, Gerald; Norman, Steve

2013-01-01

U.S. forests occupy approx.1/3 of total land area (approx. 304 million ha). Since 2000, a growing number of regionally evident forest disturbances have occurred due to abiotic and biotic agents. Regional forest disturbances can threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. Timely regional forest disturbance monitoring products are needed to aid forest health management work. Near Real Time (NRT) twice daily MODIS NDVI data provide a means to monitor U.S. regional forest disturbances every 8 days. Since 2010, these NRT forest change products have been produced and posted on the US Forest Service ForWarn Early Warning System for Forest Threats.

Theory and Application of Early Warning Systems for High School and Beyond

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carl, Bradley; Richardson, Jed T.; Cheng, Emily; Kim, HeeJin; Meyer, Robert H.

2013-01-01

This article describes the development of early warning indicators for high school and beyond in the Milwaukee Public Schools (MPS) by the Value-Added Research Center (VARC) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, working in conjunction with staff from the Division of Research and Evaluation at MPS. Our work in MPS builds on prior early warning…

Technical implementation plan for the ShakeAlert production system: an Earthquake Early Warning system for the West Coast of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Given, Douglas D.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Heaton, Thomas; Hauksson, Egill; Allen, Richard; Hellweg, Peggy; Vidale, John; Bodin, Paul

2014-01-01

Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems can provide as much as tens of seconds of warning to people and automated systems before strong shaking arrives. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners are developing such an EEW system, called ShakeAlert, for the West Coast of the United States. This document describes the technical implementation of that system, which leverages existing stations and infrastructure of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional networks to achieve this new capability. While significant progress has been made in developing the ShakeAlert early warning system, improved robustness of each component of the system and additional testing and certification are needed for the system to be reliable enough to issue public alerts. Major components of the system include dense networks of ground motion sensors, telecommunications from those sensors to central processing systems, algorithms for event detection and alert creation, and distribution systems to alert users. Capital investment costs for a West Coast EEW system are projected to be $38.3M, with additional annual maintenance and operations totaling $16.1M—in addition to current ANSS expenditures for earthquake monitoring. An EEW system is complementary to, but does not replace, other strategies to mitigate earthquake losses. The system has limitations: false and missed alerts are possible, and the area very near to an earthquake epicenter may receive little or no warning. However, such an EEW system would save lives, reduce injuries and damage, and improve community resilience by reducing longer-term economic losses for both public and private entities.

Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick H. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-07-01

Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on numerical weather prediction, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the type of input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that false alarms also contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

Exploring the utility of real-time hydrologic data for landslide early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirus, B. B.; Smith, J. B.; Becker, R.; Baum, R. L.; Koss, E.

2017-12-01

Early warning systems can provide critical information for operations managers, emergency planners, and the public to help reduce fatalities, injuries, and economic losses due to landsliding. For shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides early warning systems typically use empirical rainfall thresholds, whereas the actual triggering mechanism involves the non-linear hydrological processes of infiltration, evapotranspiration, and hillslope drainage that are more difficult to quantify. Because hydrologic monitoring has demonstrated that shallow landslides are often preceded by a rise in soil moisture and pore-water pressures, some researchers have developed early warning criteria that attempt to account for these antecedent wetness conditions through relatively simplistic storage metrics or soil-water balance modeling. Here we explore the potential for directly incorporating antecedent wetness into landslide early warning criteria using recent landslide inventories and in-situ hydrologic monitoring near Seattle, WA, and Portland, OR. We use continuous, near-real-time telemetered soil moisture and pore-water pressure data measured within a few landslide-prone hillslopes in combination with measured and forecasted rainfall totals to inform easy-to-interpret landslide initiation thresholds. Objective evaluation using somewhat limited landslide inventories suggests that our new thresholds based on subsurface hydrologic monitoring and rainfall data compare favorably to the capabilities of existing rainfall-only thresholds for the Seattle area, whereas there are no established rainfall thresholds for the Portland area. This preliminary investigation provides a proof-of-concept for the utility of developing landslide early warning criteria in two different geologic settings using real-time subsurface hydrologic measurements from in-situ instrumentation.

Establishing an early warning alert and response network following the Solomon Islands tsunami in 2013

PubMed Central

Bilve, Augustine; Nogareda, Francisco; Joshua, Cynthia; Ross, Lester; Betcha, Christopher; Durski, Kara; Fleischl, Juliet

2014-01-01

Abstract Problem On 6 February 2013, an 8.0 magnitude earthquake generated a tsunami that struck the Santa Cruz Islands, Solomon Islands, killing 10 people and displacing over 4700. Approach A post-disaster assessment of the risk of epidemic disease transmission recommended the implementation of an early warning alert and response network (EWARN) to rapidly detect, assess and respond to potential outbreaks in the aftermath of the tsunami. Local setting Almost 40% of the Santa Cruz Islands’ population were displaced by the disaster, and living in cramped temporary camps with poor or absent sanitation facilities and insufficient access to clean water. There was no early warning disease surveillance system. Relevant changes By 25 February, an EWARN was operational in five health facilities that served 90% of the displaced population. Eight priority diseases or syndromes were reported weekly; unexpected health events were reported immediately. Between 25 February and 19 May, 1177 target diseases or syndrome cases were reported. Seven alerts were investigated. No sustained transmission or epidemics were identified. Reporting compliance was 85%. The EWARN was then transitioned to the routine four-syndrome early warning disease surveillance system. Lesson learnt It was necessary to conduct a detailed assessment to evaluate the risk and potential impact of serious infectious disease outbreaks, to assess whether and how enhanced early warning disease surveillance should be implemented. Local capacities and available resources should be considered in planning EWARN implementation. An EWARN can be an opportunity to establish or strengthen early warning disease surveillance capabilities. PMID:25378746

Main components and characteristics of landslide early warning systems operational worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piciullo, Luca; Cepeda, José

2017-04-01

During the last decades the number of victims and economic losses due to natural hazards are dramatically increased worldwide. The reason can be mainly ascribed to climate changes and urbanization in areas exposed at high level of risk. Among the many mitigation measures available for reducing the risk to life related to natural hazards, early warning systems certainly constitute a significant cost-effective option available to the authorities in charge of risk management and governance. The aim is to help and protect populations exposed to natural hazards, reducing fatalities when major events occur. Landslide is one of the natural hazards addressed by early warning systems. Landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) are mainly composed by the following four components: set-up, correlation laws, decisional algorithm and warning management. Within this framework, the set-up includes all the preliminary actions and choices necessary for designing a LEWS, such as: the area covered by the system, the types of landslides and the monitoring instruments. The monitoring phase provides a series of important information on different variables, considered as triggering factors for landslides, in order to define correlation laws and thresholds. Then, a decisional algorithm is necessary for defining the: number of warning levels to be employed in the system, decision making procedures, and everything else system managers may need for issuing warnings in different warning zones. Finally the warning management is composed by: monitoring and warning strategy; communication strategy; emergency plan and, everything connected to the social sphere. Among LEWSs operational worldwide, two categories can be defined as a function of the scale of analysis: "local" and "territorial" systems. The scale of analysis influences several actions and aspects connected to the design and employment of the system, such as: the actors involved, the monitoring systems, type of landslide phenomena addressed and variables to be considered for correlations. The characteristics of LEWSs at local scale are strongly affected by numerous constraints and factors, from time to time different, related to the characteristics of the problem they address. Monitoring measures, variables and correlation laws considered for the design and employment of local LEWSs, strongly depends on the type of landslide to be addressed. On the other hand, territorial LEWSs mainly deals with rainfall-induced landslides characterized by fast slope movement. These systems have become a risk management approach, employed worldwide over areas of relevant extension. Before 2005 only few experiences of LEWSs at a regional scale were carried out, such as in: Hong Kong, China; Zhejiang Province, China; San Francisco Bay, California, USA; Appalachians, USA; Oregon, USA; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Since the beginning of the XXI century, increased knowledge on rainfall-landslide correlations and upgraded technologies in weather forecast have promoted the development and improvement of territorial LEWSs around the world.

Development of structural health monitoring and early warning system for reinforced concrete system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Iranata, Data, E-mail: iranata-data@yahoo.com, E-mail: data@ce.its.ac.id; Wahyuni, Endah; Murtiadi, Suryawan

Many buildings have been damaged due to earthquakes that occurred recently in Indonesia. The main cause of the damage is the large deformation of the building structural component cannot accommodate properly. Therefore, it is necessary to develop the Structural Health Monitoring System (SHMS) to measure precisely the deformation of the building structural component in the real time conditions. This paper presents the development of SHMS for reinforced concrete structural system. This monitoring system is based on deformation component such as strain of reinforcement bar, concrete strain, and displacement of reinforced concrete component. Since the deformation component has exceeded the limitmore » value, the warning message can be sent to the building occupies. This warning message has also can be performed as early warning system of the reinforced concrete structural system. The warning message can also be sent via Short Message Service (SMS) through the Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) network. Hence, the SHMS should be integrated with internet modem to connect with GSM network. Additionally, the SHMS program is verified with experimental study of simply supported reinforced concrete beam. Verification results show that the SHMS has good agreement with experimental results.« less

Early Warning System for reducing disaster risk: the technological platform DEWETRA for the Republic of Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massabo, Marco; Molini, Luca; Kostic, Bojan; Campanella, Paolo; Stevanovic, Slavimir

2015-04-01

Disaster risk reduction has long been recognized for its role in mitigating the negative environmental, social and economic impacts of natural hazards. Flood Early Warning System is a disaster risk reduction measure based on the capacities of institutions to observe and predict extreme hydro-meteorological events and to disseminate timely and meaningful warning information; it is furthermore based on the capacities of individuals, communities and organizations to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss. An operational definition of an Early Warning System has been suggested by ISDR - UN Office for DRR [15 January 2009]: "EWS is the set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss.". ISDR continues by commenting that a people-centered early warning system necessarily comprises four key elements: 1-knowledge of the risks; 2-monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; 3-communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and 4- local capabilities to respond to the warnings received." The technological platform DEWETRA supports the strengthening of the first three key elements of EWS suggested by ISDR definition, hence to improve the capacities to build real-time risk scenarios and to inform and warn the population in advance The technological platform DEWETRA has been implemented for the Republic of Serbia. DEWETRA is a real time-integrate system that supports decision makers for risk forecasting and monitoring and for distributing warnings to end-user and to the general public. The system is based on the rapid availability of different data that helps to establish up-to-date and reliable risk scenarios. The integration of all relevant data for risk management significantly increases the value of available information and the level of knowledge of forecasters and disaster managers. Different data, forecast and monitoring products, which are generated by different national and international institution and organizations, can be visualized and processed in real-time within the platform. DEWETRA is a web application ensuring the capillary distribution of information among institutions. The system is used as an infrastructure for exchanging and sharing data, procedures, models and expertise among the Sector of Emergency Management (SEM), the Republic Hydro-Meteorological Service of Serbia (RHMSS) and the Serbian Public Water Companies (PWCs): Serbia Waters, Vojvodina Waters and Belgrade Waters.

Which System Variables Carry Robust Early Signs of Upcoming Phase Transition? An Ecological Example.

PubMed

Negahbani, Ehsan; Steyn-Ross, D Alistair; Steyn-Ross, Moira L; Aguirre, Luis A

2016-01-01

Growth of critical fluctuations prior to catastrophic state transition is generally regarded as a universal phenomenon, providing a valuable early warning signal in dynamical systems. Using an ecological fisheries model of three populations (juvenile prey J, adult prey A and predator P), a recent study has reported silent early warning signals obtained from P and A populations prior to saddle-node (SN) bifurcation, and thus concluded that early warning signals are not universal. By performing a full eigenvalue analysis of the same system we demonstrate that while J and P populations undergo SN bifurcation, A does not jump to a new state, so it is not expected to carry early warning signs. In contrast with the previous study, we capture a significant increase in the noise-induced fluctuations in the P population, but only on close approach to the bifurcation point; it is not clear why the P variance initially shows a decaying trend. Here we resolve this puzzle using observability measures from control theory. By computing the observability coefficient for the system from the recordings of each population considered one at a time, we are able to quantify their ability to describe changing internal dynamics. We demonstrate that precursor fluctuations are best observed using only the J variable, and also P variable if close to transition. Using observability analysis we are able to describe why a poorly observable variable (P) has poor forecasting capabilities although a full eigenvalue analysis shows that this variable undergoes a bifurcation. We conclude that observability analysis provides complementary information to identify the variables carrying early-warning signs about impending state transition.

National High School Center Early Warning System Tool v2.0: Technical Manual

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National High School Center, 2011

2011-01-01

The Early Warning System (EWS) Tool v2.0 is a Microsoft Excel-based tool developed by the National High School Center at the American Institutes for Research in collaboration with Matrix Knowledge Group. The tool enables schools, districts, and states to identify students who may be at risk of dropping out of high school and to monitor these…

Response Characteristics of an Aquatic Biomonitor Used for Rapid Toxicity Detection

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-05-15

for drinking water protection. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGES biological early warning system; Lepomis macrochirus; bluegill; aquatic toxicity...Fort Detrick, MD 21702-5010, USA Key words: biomonitor; biological early warning system; Lepomis macrochirus; bluegill; aquatic toxicity; water ...narcosis are most likely to cause rapid aquatic biomonitor depth related to variations in water quality (primarily responses. Other modes of action may

Establishing the fundamentals for an elephant early warning and monitoring system.

PubMed

Zeppelzauer, Matthias; Stoeger, Angela S

2015-09-04

The decline of habitat for elephants due to expanding human activity is a serious conservation problem. This has continuously escalated the human-elephant conflict in Africa and Asia. Elephants make extensive use of powerful infrasonic calls (rumbles) that travel distances of up to several kilometers. This makes elephants well-suited for acoustic monitoring because it enables detecting elephants even if they are out of sight. In sight, their distinct visual appearance makes them a good candidate for visual monitoring. We provide an integrated overview of our interdisciplinary project that established the scientific fundamentals for a future early warning and monitoring system for humans who regularly experience serious conflict with elephants. We first draw the big picture of an early warning and monitoring system, then review the developed solutions for automatic acoustic and visual detection, discuss specific challenges and present open future work necessary to build a robust and reliable early warning and monitoring system that is able to operate in situ. We present a method for the automated detection of elephant rumbles that is robust to the diverse noise sources present in situ. We evaluated the method on an extensive set of audio data recorded under natural field conditions. Results show that the proposed method outperforms existing approaches and accurately detects elephant rumbles. Our visual detection method shows that tracking elephants in wildlife videos (of different sizes and postures) is feasible and particularly robust at near distances. From our project results we draw a number of conclusions that are discussed and summarized. We clearly identified the most critical challenges and necessary improvements of the proposed detection methods and conclude that our findings have the potential to form the basis for a future automated early warning system for elephants. We discuss challenges that need to be solved and summarize open topics in the context of a future early warning and monitoring system. We conclude that a long-term evaluation of the presented methods in situ using real-time prototypes is the most important next step to transfer the developed methods into practical implementation.

The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Minson, Sarah E.; Meier, Men-Andrin; Baltay, Annemarie S.; Hanks, Thomas C.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

2018-01-01

The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictable. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are in operation or development for many regions around the world, with the goal of providing enough warning of incoming ground shaking to allow people and automated systems to take protective actions to mitigate losses. However, the question of how much warning time is physically possible for specified levels of ground motion has not been addressed. We consider a zero-latency EEW system to determine possible warning times a user could receive in an ideal case. In this case, the only limitation on warning time is the time required for the earthquake to evolve and the time for strong ground motion to arrive at a user’s location. We find that users who wish to be alerted at lower ground motion thresholds will receive more robust warnings with longer average warning times than users who receive warnings for higher ground motion thresholds. EEW systems have the greatest potential benefit for users willing to take action at relatively low ground motion thresholds, whereas users who set relatively high thresholds for taking action are less likely to receive timely and actionable information.

The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates

PubMed Central

Hanks, Thomas C.

2018-01-01

The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictable. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are in operation or development for many regions around the world, with the goal of providing enough warning of incoming ground shaking to allow people and automated systems to take protective actions to mitigate losses. However, the question of how much warning time is physically possible for specified levels of ground motion has not been addressed. We consider a zero-latency EEW system to determine possible warning times a user could receive in an ideal case. In this case, the only limitation on warning time is the time required for the earthquake to evolve and the time for strong ground motion to arrive at a user’s location. We find that users who wish to be alerted at lower ground motion thresholds will receive more robust warnings with longer average warning times than users who receive warnings for higher ground motion thresholds. EEW systems have the greatest potential benefit for users willing to take action at relatively low ground motion thresholds, whereas users who set relatively high thresholds for taking action are less likely to receive timely and actionable information. PMID:29750190

SPIRALE: early warning optical space demonstrator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galindo, D.; Carucci, A.

2004-11-01

Thanks to its global coverage, its peacetime capabilities and its availability, ballistic missiles Early Warning (EW) space systems are identified as a key node of a global missile defence system. Since the Gulf war in 1991, several feasibility studies of such an Early Warning system have been conducted in France. The main conclusions are first that the most appropriate concept is to use infra-red (IR) sensors on geo- stationary orbit satellites and second that the required satellite performances are achievable and accessible to European industries, even if technological developments are necessary. Besides that, it was recommended to prepare the development of the EW operational system, by demonstrating its achievable performances on the basis of collected background images and available target IR signatures. This is the objective of the "EW optical space demonstrator", also named SPIRALE (this a French acronym which stands for "Preparatory IR Program for EW"). A contract has been awarded early 2004, by DGA/SPOTI (French Armament Procurement Agency), to EADS Astrium France, with a significant participation of Alcatel Space, to perform this demonstration.

Earthquake Early Warning: User Education and Designing Effective Messages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burkett, E. R.; Sellnow, D. D.; Jones, L.; Sellnow, T. L.

2014-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and partners are transitioning from test-user trials of a demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) to deciding and preparing how to implement the release of earthquake early warning information, alert messages, and products to the public and other stakeholders. An earthquake early warning system uses seismic station networks to rapidly gather information about an occurring earthquake and send notifications to user devices ahead of the arrival of potentially damaging ground shaking at their locations. Earthquake early warning alerts can thereby allow time for actions to protect lives and property before arrival of damaging shaking, if users are properly educated on how to use and react to such notifications. A collaboration team of risk communications researchers and earth scientists is researching the effectiveness of a chosen subset of potential earthquake early warning interface designs and messages, which could be displayed on a device such as a smartphone. Preliminary results indicate, for instance, that users prefer alerts that include 1) a map to relate their location to the earthquake and 2) instructions for what to do in response to the expected level of shaking. A number of important factors must be considered to design a message that will promote appropriate self-protective behavior. While users prefer to see a map, how much information can be processed in limited time? Are graphical representations of wavefronts helpful or confusing? The most important factor to promote a helpful response is the predicted earthquake intensity, or how strong the expected shaking will be at the user's location. Unlike Japanese users of early warning, few Californians are familiar with the earthquake intensity scale, so we are exploring how differentiating instructions between intensity levels (e.g., "Be aware" for lower shaking levels and "Drop, cover, hold on" at high levels) can be paired with self-directed supplemental information to increase the public's understanding of earthquake shaking and protective behaviors.

A Neutral Network based Early Eathquake Warning model in California region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, H.; MacAyeal, D. R.

2016-12-01

Early Earthquake Warning systems could reduce loss of lives and other economic impact resulted from natural disaster or man-made calamity. Current systems could be further enhanced by neutral network method. A 3 layer neural network model combined with onsite method was deployed in this paper to improve the recognition time and detection time for large scale earthquakes.The 3 layer neutral network early earthquake warning model adopted the vector feature design for sample events happened within 150 km radius of the epicenters. Dataset used in this paper contained both destructive events and small scale events. All the data was extracted from IRIS database to properly train the model. In the training process, backpropagation algorithm was used to adjust the weight matrices and bias matrices during each iteration. The information in all three channels of the seismometers served as the source in this model. Through designed tests, it was indicated that this model could identify approximately 90 percent of the events' scale correctly. And the early detection could provide informative evidence for public authorities to make further decisions. This indicated that neutral network model could have the potential to strengthen current early warning system, since the onsite method may greatly reduce the responding time and save more lives in such disasters.

Detection of Deteriorating Patients on Surgical Wards Outside the ICU by an Automated MEWS-Based Early Warning System With Paging Functionality.

PubMed

Heller, Axel R; Mees, Sören T; Lauterwald, Benjamin; Reeps, Christian; Koch, Thea; Weitz, Jürgen

2018-05-16

The establishment of early warning systems in hospitals was strongly recommended in recent guidelines to detect deteriorating patients early and direct them to adequate care. Upon reaching predefined trigger criteria, Medical Emergency Teams (MET) should be notified and directed to these patients. The present study analyses the effect of introducing an automated multiparameter early warning score (MEWS)-based early warning system with paging functionality on 2 wards hosting patients recovering from highly complex surgical interventions. The deployment of the system was accompanied by retrospective data acquisition during 12 months (intervention) using 4 routine databases: Hospital patient data management, anesthesia database, local data of the German Resuscitation Registry, and measurement logs of the deployed system (intervention period only). A retrospective 12-month data review using the same aforementioned databases before the deployment of the system served as control. Control and intervention phases were separated by a 6-month washout period for the installation of the system and for training. Data from 3827 patients could be acquired from 2 surgical wards during the two 12-month periods, 1896 patients in the control and 1931 in the intervention cohorts. Patient characteristics differed between the 2 observation phases. American Society of Anesthesiologists risk classification and duration of surgery as well as German DRG case-weight were significantly higher in the intervention period. However, the rate of cardiac arrests significantly dropped from 5.3 to 2.1 per 1000 admissions in the intervention period (P < 0.001). This observation was paralleled by a reduction of unplanned ICU admissions from 3.6% to 3.0% (P < 0.001), and an increase of notifications of critical conditions to the ward surgeon. The primary triggers for MET activation were abnormal ECG alerts, specifically asystole (n = 5), and pulseless electric activity (n = 8). In concert with a well-trained and organized MET, the early deterioration detection of patients on surgical wards outside the ICU may be improved by introducing an automated MEWS-based early warning system with paging functionality.

Global Environmental Alert Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grasso, V. F.; Cervone, G.; Singh, A.; Kafatos, M.

2006-12-01

Every year natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, tsunamis, etc. occur around the world, causing hundreds of thousands of deaths and injuries, billions of dollars in economic losses, and destroying natural landmarks and adveresely affecting ecosystems. Due to increasing urbanization, and increasingly higher percentage of the world's population living in megacities, the existence of nuclear power plants and other facilities whose potential destruction poses unacceptable high risks, natural hazards represent an increasing threat for economic losses, as well as risk to people and property. Warning systems represent an innovative and effective approach to mitigate the risks associated with natural hazards. Several state-of-the-art analyses show that early warning technologies are now available for most natural hazards and systems are already in operation in some parts of the world. Nevertheless, recent disasters such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the 2005 Kashmir earthquake and the 2005 Katrina hurricane, highlighted inadequacies in early warning system technologies. Furthermore, not all available technologies are deployed in every part of the world, due to the lack of awareness and resources in the poorer countries, leaving very large and densely populated areas at risk. Efforts towards the development of a global warning system are necessary for filling the gaps of existing technologies. A globally comprehensive early warning system based on existing technologies will be a means to consolidate scientific knowledge, package it in a form usable to international and national decision makers and actively disseminate this information to protect people and properties. There is not a single information broker who searches and packages the policy relevant material and delivers it in an understandable format to the public and decision makers. A critical review of existing systems reveals the need for the innovative service. We propose here a Global Environmental Alert Service (GEAS) that could provide information from monitoring, Earth observing and early warning systems to users in a near real time mode and bridge the gap between the scientific community and policy makers. Characteristics and operational aspects of GEAS are discussed.

Adapting the EDuMaP method to test the performance of the Norwegian early warning system for weather-induced landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piciullo, Luca; Dahl, Mads-Peter; Devoli, Graziella; Colleuille, Hervé; Calvello, Michele

2017-06-01

The Norwegian national landslide early warning system (LEWS), operational since 2013, is managed by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate and was designed for monitoring and forecasting the hydrometeorological conditions potentially triggering slope failures. Decision-making in the LEWS is based upon rainfall thresholds, hydrometeorological and real-time landslide observations as well as on landslide inventory and susceptibility maps. Daily alerts are issued throughout the country considering variable size warning zones. Warnings are issued once per day for the following 3 days and can be updated according to weather forecasts and information gathered by the monitoring network. The performance of the LEWS operational in Norway has been evaluated applying the EDuMaP method, which is based on the computation of a duration matrix relating number of landslides and warning levels issued in a warning zone. In the past, this method has been exclusively employed to analyse the performance of regional early warning models considering fixed warning zones. Herein, an original approach is proposed for the computation of the elements of the duration matrix in the case of early warning models issuing alerts on variable size areas. The approach has been used to evaluate the warnings issued in Western Norway, in the period 2013-2014, considering two datasets of landslides. The results indicate that the landslide datasets do not significantly influence the performance evaluation, although a slightly better performance is registered for the smallest dataset. Different performance results are observed as a function of the values adopted for one of the most important input parameters of EDuMaP, the landslide density criterion (i.e. setting the thresholds to differentiate among classes of landslide events). To investigate this issue, a parametric analysis has been conducted; the results of the analysis show significant differences among computed performances when absolute or relative landslide density criteria are considered.

Feasibility of Using Elastic Wave Velocity Monitoring for Early Warning of Rainfall-Induced Slope Failure.

PubMed

Chen, Yulong; Irfan, Muhammad; Uchimura, Taro; Zhang, Ke

2018-03-27

Rainfall-induced landslides are one of the most widespread slope instability phenomena posing a serious risk to public safety worldwide so that their temporal prediction is of great interest to establish effective warning systems. The objective of this study is to determine the effectiveness of elastic wave velocities in the surface layer of the slope in monitoring, prediction and early warning of landslide. The small-scale fixed and varied, and large-scale slope model tests were conducted. Analysis of the results has established that the elastic wave velocity continuously decreases in response of moisture content and deformation and there was a distinct surge in the decrease rate of wave velocity when failure was initiated. Based on the preliminary results of this analysis, the method using the change in elastic wave velocity proves superior for landslide early warning and suggests that a warning be issued at switch of wave velocity decrease rate.

Early warning systems and rapid response to the deteriorating patient in hospital: A realist evaluation.

PubMed

McGaughey, Jennifer; O'Halloran, Peter; Porter, Sam; Trinder, John; Blackwood, Bronagh

2017-12-01

To test the Rapid Response Systems programme theory against actual practice components of the Rapid Response Systems implemented to identify those contexts and mechanisms which have an impact on the successful achievement of desired outcomes in practice. Rapid Response Systems allow deteriorating patients to be recognized using Early Warning Systems, referred early via escalation protocols and managed at the bedside by competent staff. Realist evaluation. The research design was an embedded multiple case study approach of four wards in two hospitals in Northern Ireland which followed the principles of Realist Evaluation. We used various mixed methods including individual and focus group interviews, observation of nursing practice between June-November 2010 and document analysis of Early Warning Systems audit data between May-October 2010 and hospital acute care training records over 4.5 years from 2003-2008. Data were analysed using NiVivo8 and SPPS. A cross-case analysis highlighted similar patterns of factors which enabled or constrained successful recognition, referral and response to deteriorating patients in practice. Key enabling factors were the use of clinical judgement by experienced nurses and the empowerment of nurses as a result of organizational change associated with implementation of Early Warning System protocols. Key constraining factors were low staffing and inappropriate skill mix levels, rigid implementation of protocols and culturally embedded suboptimal communication processes. Successful implementation of Rapid Response Systems was dependent on adopting organizational and cultural changes that facilitated staff empowerment, flexible implementation of protocols and ongoing experiential learning. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

PRESSCA: A regional operative Early Warning System for landslides risk scenario assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponziani, Francesco; Stelluti, Marco; Berni, Nicola; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

2013-04-01

The Italian national alert system for the hydraulic and hydrogeological risk is ensured by the National Civil Protection Department, through the "Functional Centres" Network, together with scientific/technical Support Centres, named "Competence Centres". The role of the Functional Centres is to alert regional/national civil protection network, to manage the prediction and the monitoring phases, thus ensuring the flow of data for the management of the emergency. The Umbria regional alerting procedure is based on three increasing warning levels of criticality for 6 sub-areas (~1200 km²). Specifically, for each duration (from 1 to 48 hours), three criticality levels are assigned to the rainfall values corresponding to a recurrence interval of 2, 5, and 10 years. In order to improve confidence on the daily work for hydrogeological risk assessment and management, a simple and operational early warning system for the prediction of shallow landslide triggering on regional scale was implemented. The system is primarily based on rainfall thresholds, which represent the main element of evaluation for the early-warning procedures of the Italian Civil Protection system. Following previous studies highlighting that soil moisture conditions play a key role on landslide triggering, a continuous physically-based soil water balance model was implemented for the estimation of soil moisture conditions over the whole regional territory. In fact, a decreasing trend between the cumulated rainfall values over 24, 36 and 48 hours and the soil moisture conditions prior to past landslide events was observed. This trend provides an easy-to-use tool to dynamically adjust the operational rainfall thresholds with the soil moisture conditions simulated by the soil water balance model prior to rainfall events. The application of this procedure allowed decreasing the uncertainties tied to the application of the rainfall thresholds only. The system is actually operational in real-time and it was recently coupled with quantitative rainfall and temperature forecasts (given by the COSMO ME local scale models for Umbria) to extend the prediction up to 72 hours forecast. The main output is constituted by four spatially distributed early warning indicators (normal, caution, warning, alarm), in compliance with national and regional law, based on the comparison between the observed (forecasted) rainfall and the dynamic thresholds. The early warning indicators, calculated over the whole regional territory, are combined with susceptibility and vulnerability layers using a WEB-GIS platform, in order to build a near real time risk scenario. The main outcome of the system is a spatially distributed landslide hazard map with the highlight of areas where local risk situations may arise due to landslides induced by the interaction between meteorological forcing and the presence of vulnerability elements. The System is inclusive of specific sections dedicated to areas with specific risks (as debris flows prone areas), with specific thresholds. The main purpose of this study is firstly to describe the operational early warning system. Then, the integration of near real-time soil moisture data obtained through the satellite sensor ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer) within the system is shown. This could allow enhancing the reliability of the modelled soil moisture data over the regional territory. The recent rainfall event of 11-14 November 2012 is used as case study. Reported triggered landslides are studied and used in order to check/refine the early warning system.

Assessing the add value of ensemble forecast in a drought early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calmanti, Sandro; Bosi, Lorenzo; Fernandez, Jesus; De Felice, Matteo

2015-04-01

The EU-FP7 project EUPORIAS is developing a prototype climate service to enhance the existing food security drought early warning system in Ethiopia. The Livelihoods, Early Assessment and Protection (LEAP) system is the Government of Ethiopia's national food security early warning system, established with the support of WFP and the World Bank in 2008. LEAP was designed to increase the predictability and timeliness of response to drought-related food crises in Ethiopia. It combines early warning with contingency planning and contingency funding, to allow the government, WFP and other partners to provide early assistance in anticipation of an impending catastrophes. Currently, LEAP uses satellite based rainfall estimates to monitor drought conditions and to compute needs. The main aim of the prototype is to use seasonal hindcast data to assess the added value of using ensemble climate rainfall forecasts to estimate the cost of assistance of population hit by major droughts. We outline the decision making process that is informed by the prototype climate service, and we discuss the analysis of the expected and skill of the available rainfall forecast data over Ethiopia. One critical outcome of this analysis is the strong dependence of the expected skill on the observational estimate assumed as reference. A preliminary evaluation of the full prototype products (drought indices and needs estimated) using hindcasts data will also be presented.

Development of a Low Cost Earthquake Early Warning System in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Y. M.

2017-12-01

The National Taiwan University (NTU) developed an earthquake early warning (EEW) system for research purposes using low-cost accelerometers (P-Alert) since 2010. As of 2017, a total of 650 stations have been deployed and configured. The NTU system can provide earthquake information within 15 s of an earthquake occurrence. Thus, this system may provide early warnings for cities located more than 50 km from the epicenter. Additionally, the NTU system also has an onsite alert function that triggers a warning for incoming P-waves greater than a certain magnitude threshold, thus providing a 2-3 s lead time before peak ground acceleration (PGA) for regions close to an epicenter. Detailed shaking maps are produced by the NTU system within one or two minutes after an earthquake. Recently, a new module named ShakeAlarm has been developed. Equipped with real-time acceleration signals and the time-dependent anisotropic attenuation relationship of the PGA, ShakingAlarm can provide an accurate PGA estimation immediately before the arrival of the observed PGA. This unique advantage produces sufficient lead time for hazard assessment and emergency response, which is unavailable for traditional shakemap, which are based on only the PGA observed in real time. The performance of ShakingAlarm was tested with six M > 5.5 inland earthquakes from 2013 to 2016. Taking the 2016 M6.4 Meinong earthquake simulation as an example, the predicted PGA converges to a stable value and produces a predicted shake map and an isocontour map of the predicted PGA within 16 seconds of earthquake occurrence. Compared with traditional regional EEW system, ShakingAlarm can effectively identify possible damage regions and provide valuable early warning information (magnitude and PGA) for risk mitigation.

Vital signs and other observations used to detect deterioration in pregnant women: an analysis of vital sign charts in consultant-led UK maternity units.

PubMed

Smith, G B; Isaacs, R; Andrews, L; Wee, M Y K; van Teijlingen, E; Bick, D E; Hundley, V

2017-05-01

Obstetric early warning systems are recommended for monitoring hospitalised pregnant and postnatal women. We decided to compare: (i) vital sign values used to define physiological normality; (ii) symptoms and signs used to escalate care; (iii) type of chart used; and (iv) presence of explicit instructions for escalating care. One-hundred-and-twenty obstetric early warning charts and escalation protocols were obtained from consultant-led maternity units in the UK and Channel Islands. These data were extracted: values used to determine normality for each maternal vital sign; chart colour-coding; instructions following early warning system triggering; other criteria used as triggers. There was considerable variation in the charts, warning systems and escalation protocols. Of 120 charts, 89.2% used colour; 69.2% used colour-coded escalation systems. Forty-one (34.2%) systems required the calculation of weighted scores. Seventy-five discrete combinations of 'normal' vital sign ranges were found, the most common being: heart rate=50-99beats/min; respiratory rate=11-20breaths/min; blood pressure, systolic=100-149mmHg, diastolic ≤89mmHg; SpO 2 =95-100%; temperature=36.0-37.9°C; and Alert-Voice-Pain-Unresponsive assessment=Alert. Most charts (90.8%) provided instructions about who to contact following triggering, but only 41.7% gave instructions about subsequent observation frequency. The wide range of 'normal' vital sign values in different systems suggests a lack of equity in the processes for detecting deterioration and escalating care in hospitalised pregnant and postnatal women. Agreement regarding 'normal' vital sign ranges is urgently required and would assist the development of a standardised obstetric early warning system and chart. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrated Land- and Underwater-Based Sensors for a Subduction Zone Earthquake Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirenne, B.; Rosenberger, A.; Rogers, G. C.; Henton, J.; Lu, Y.; Moore, T.

2016-12-01

Ocean Networks Canada (ONC — oceannetworks.ca/ ) operates cabled ocean observatories off the coast of British Columbia (BC) to support research and operational oceanography. Recently, ONC has been funded by the Province of BC to deliver an earthquake early warning (EEW) system that integrates offshore and land-based sensors to deliver alerts of incoming ground shaking from the Cascadia Subduction Zone. ONC's cabled seismic network has the unique advantage of being located offshore on either side of the surface expression of the subduction zone. The proximity of ONC's sensors to the fault can result in faster, more effective warnings, which translates into more lives saved, injuries avoided and more ability for mitigative actions to take place.ONC delivers near real-time data from various instrument types simultaneously, providing distinct advantages to seismic monitoring and earthquake early warning. The EEW system consists of a network of sensors, located on the ocean floor and on land, that detect and analyze the initial p-wave of an earthquake as well as the crustal deformation on land during the earthquake sequence. Once the p-wave is detected and characterized, software systems correlate the data streams of the various sensors and deliver alerts to clients through a Common Alerting Protocol-compliant data package. This presentation will focus on the development of the earthquake early warning capacity at ONC. It will describe the seismic sensors and their distribution, the p-wave detection algorithms selected and the overall architecture of the system. It will further overview the plan to achieve operational readiness at project completion.

Research on Disaster Early Warning and Disaster Relief Integrated Service System Based on Block Data Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Zhang, H.; Wang, C.; Tang, D.

2018-04-01

With the continuous development of social economy, the interaction between mankind and nature has become increasingly evident. Disastrous global catastrophes have occurred from time to time, causing huge losses to people's lives and property. All governments recognize the importance of the establishment of disaster early warning and release mechanisms, and it is also an urgent issue to improve the comprehensive service level of emergency response and disaster relief. However, disaster early warning and emergency relief information is usually generated by different departments, and the diverse data sources, difficult integration, and limited release speed have always been difficult issues to be solved. Block data is the aggregation of various distributed (point data) and segmentation (data) big data on a specific platform and make them happen continuous polymerization effect, block data theory is a good solution to cross-sectoral, cross-platform Disaster information data sharing and integration problems. This paper attempts to discuss the integrated service mechanism of disaster information aggregation and disaster relief based on block data theory and introduces a location-based integrated service system for disaster early warning and disaster relief.

The GNSS-based component for the new Indonesian tsunami early warning centre provided by GITEWS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falck, C.; Ramatschi, M.; Bartsch, M.; Merx, A.; Hoeberechts, J.; Rothacher, M.

2009-04-01

Introduction Nowadays GNSS technologies are used for a large variety of precise positioning applications. The accuracy can reach the mm level depending on the data analysis methods. GNSS technologies thus offer a high potential to support tsunami early warning systems, e.g., by detection of ground motions due to earthquakes and of tsunami waves on the ocean by GNSS instruments on a buoy. Although GNSS-based precise positioning is a standard method, it is not yet common to apply this technique under tight time constraints and, hence, in the absence of precise satellite orbits and clocks. The new developed GNSS-based component utilises on- and offshore measured GNSS data and is the first system of its kind that was integrated into an operational early warning system. (Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning Centre INATEWS, inaugurated at BMKG, Jakarta on November, 11th 2008) Motivation After the Tsunami event of 26th December 2004 the German government initiated the GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) to develop a tsunami early warning system for Indonesia. The GFZ Potsdam (German Research Centre for Geosciences) as the consortial leader of GITEWS also covers several work packages, most of them related to sensor systems. The geodetic branch (Department 1) of the GFZ was assigned to develop a GNSS-based component. Brief system description The system covers all aspects from sensor stations with new developed hard- and software designs, manufacturing and installation of stations, real-time data transfer issues, a new developed automatic near real-time data processing and a graphical user interface for early warning centre operators including training on the system. GNSS sensors are installed on buoys, at tide gauges and as real-time reference stations (RTR stations), either stand-alone or co-located with seismic sensors. The GNSS data are transmitted to the warning centre where they are processed in a near real-time data processing chain. For sensors on land the processing system delivers deviations from their normal, mean coordinates. The deviations or so called displacements are indicators for land mass movements which can occur, e.g., due to strong earthquakes. The ground motion information is a valuable source for a fast understanding of an earthquake's mechanism with possible relevance for a potentially following tsunami. By this means the GNSS system supports the decision finding process whether most probably a tsunami has been generated or not. For buoy based GNSS data the processing (differential, with GNSS reference station on land) delivers coordinates as well. Only the vertical component is of interest as it corresponds to the instant sea level height. Deviations to the mean sea level height are an indicator for a possibly passing tsunami wave. The graphical user interface (GUI) of the GNSS system supports both, a quick view for all staff members at the warning centre (24h/7d shifts) and deeper analysis by GNSS experts. The GNSS GUI system is implemented as a web-based application and allows all views to be displayed on different screens at the same time, even at remote locations. This is part of the concept, as it can support the dialogue between warning centre staff on duty or on standby and sensor station maintenance staff. Acknowledgements The GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) is carried out by a large group of scientists and engineers from (GFZ) German Research Centre for Geosciences and its partners from the German Aerospace Centre (DLR), the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), the GKSS Research Centre, the Konsortium Deutsche Meeresforschung (KDM), the Leibniz Institute for Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), the United Nations University (UNU), the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), the German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) and other international partners. Most relevant partners in Indonesia with respect to the GNSS component of GITEWS are the National Coordinating Agency for Surveys and Mapping (BAKOSURTANAL), the National Metereology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) and the National Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT). Funding is provided by the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF), Grant 03TSU01.

Technical Note: An operational landslide early warning system at regional scale based on space-time-variable rainfall thresholds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Segoni, S.; Battistini, A.; Rossi, G.; Rosi, A.; Lagomarsino, D.; Catani, F.; Moretti, S.; Casagli, N.

2015-04-01

We set up an early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Tuscany (23 000 km2). The system is based on a set of state-of-the-art intensity-duration rainfall thresholds (Segoni et al., 2014b) and makes use of LAMI (Limited Area Model Italy) rainfall forecasts and real-time rainfall data provided by an automated network of more than 300 rain gauges. The system was implemented in a WebGIS to ease the operational use in civil protection procedures: it is simple and intuitive to consult, and it provides different outputs. When switching among different views, the system is able to focus both on monitoring of real-time data and on forecasting at different lead times up to 48 h. Moreover, the system can switch between a basic data view where a synoptic scenario of the hazard can be shown all over the region and a more in-depth view were the rainfall path of rain gauges can be displayed and constantly compared with rainfall thresholds. To better account for the variability of the geomorphological and meteorological settings encountered in Tuscany, the region is subdivided into 25 alert zones, each provided with a specific threshold. The warning system reflects this subdivision: using a network of more than 300 rain gauges, it allows for the monitoring of each alert zone separately so that warnings can be issued independently. An important feature of the warning system is that the visualization of the thresholds in the WebGIS interface may vary in time depending on when the starting time of the rainfall event is set. The starting time of the rainfall event is considered as a variable by the early warning system: whenever new rainfall data are available, a recursive algorithm identifies the starting time for which the rainfall path is closest to or overcomes the threshold. This is considered the most hazardous condition, and it is displayed by the WebGIS interface. The early warning system is used to forecast and monitor the landslide hazard in the whole region, providing specific alert levels for 25 distinct alert zones. In addition, the system can be used to gather, analyze, display, explore, interpret and store rainfall data, thus representing a potential support to both decision makers and scientists.

Development of a GNSS-Enhanced Tsunami Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bawden, G. W.; Melbourne, T. I.; Bock, Y.; Song, Y. T.; Komjathy, A.

2015-12-01

The past decade has witnessed a terrible loss of life and economic disruption caused by large earthquakes and resultant tsunamis impacting coastal communities and infrastructure across the Indo-Pacific region. NASA has funded the early development of a prototype real-time Global Navigation Satellite System (RT-GNSS) based rapid earthquake and tsunami early warning (GNSS-TEW) system that may be used to enhance seismic tsunami early warning systems for large earthquakes. This prototype GNSS-TEW system geodetically estimates fault parameters (earthquake magnitude, location, strike, dip, and slip magnitude/direction on a gridded fault plane both along strike and at depth) and tsunami source parameters (seafloor displacement, tsunami energy scale, and 3D tsunami initials) within minutes after the mainshock based on dynamic numerical inversions/regressions of the real-time measured displacements within a spatially distributed real-time GNSS network(s) spanning the epicentral region. It is also possible to measure fluctuations in the ionosphere's total electron content (TEC) in the RT-GNSS data caused by the pressure wave from the tsunami. This TEC approach can detect if a tsunami has been triggered by an earthquake, track its waves as they propagate through the oceanic basins, and provide upwards of 45 minutes early warning. These combined real-time geodetic approaches will very quickly address a number of important questions in the immediate minutes following a major earthquake: How big was the earthquake and what are its fault parameters? Could the earthquake have produced a tsunami and was a tsunami generated?

Suitability of Open-Ocean Instrumentation for Use in Near-Field Tsunami Early Warning Along Seismically Active Subduction Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williamson, Amy L.; Newman, Andrew V.

2018-05-01

Over the past decade, the number of open-ocean gauges capable of parsing information about a passing tsunami has steadily increased, particularly through national cable networks and international buoyed efforts such as the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART). This information is analyzed to disseminate tsunami warnings to affected regions. However, most current warnings that incorporate tsunami are directed at mid- and far-field localities. In this study, we analyze the region surrounding four seismically active subduction zones, Cascadia, Japan, Chile, and Java, for their potential to facilitate local tsunami early warning using such systems. We assess which locations currently have instrumentation in the right locations for direct tsunami observations with enough time to provide useful warning to the nearest affected coastline—and which are poorly suited for such systems. Our primary findings are that while some regions are ill-suited for this type of early warning, such as the coastlines of Chile, other localities, like Java, Indonesia, could incorporate direct tsunami observations into their hazard forecasts with enough lead time to be effective for coastal community emergency response. We take into account the effect of tsunami propagation with regard to shallow bathymetry on the fore-arc as well as the effect of earthquake source placement. While it is impossible to account for every type of off-shore tsunamigenic event in these locales, this study aims to characterize a typical large tsunamigenic event occurring in the shallow part of the megathrust as a guide in what is feasible with early tsunami warning.

Earthquake magnitude estimation using the τ c and P d method for earthquake early warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Xing; Zhang, Hongcai; Li, Jun; Wei, Yongxiang; Ma, Qiang

2013-10-01

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are one of the most effective ways to reduce earthquake disaster. Earthquake magnitude estimation is one of the most important and also the most difficult parts of the entire EEW system. In this paper, based on 142 earthquake events and 253 seismic records that were recorded by the KiK-net in Japan, and aftershocks of the large Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, we obtained earthquake magnitude estimation relationships using the τ c and P d methods. The standard variances of magnitude calculation of these two formulas are ±0.65 and ±0.56, respectively. The P d value can also be used to estimate the peak ground motion of velocity, then warning information can be released to the public rapidly, according to the estimation results. In order to insure the stability and reliability of magnitude estimation results, we propose a compatibility test according to the natures of these two parameters. The reliability of the early warning information is significantly improved though this test.

Tipping point analysis of seismological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livina, Valerie N.; Tolkova, Elena

2014-05-01

We apply the tipping point toolbox [1-7] to study sensor data of pressure variations and vertical velocity of the sea floor after two seismic events: 21 October 2010, M6.9, D10km (California) and 11 March 2011, M9.0, D30km (Japan). One type of datasets was measured by nano-resolution pressure sensor [8], while the other, for comparison, by a co-located ocean bottom seismometer. Both sensors registered the seismic wave, and we investigated the early warning and detection signals of the wave arrival for possible application with a remote and cabled tsunami warning detector network (NOAA DART system and Japan Trench Tsunami Observation System). We study the early warning and detection signals of the wave arrival using methodology that combines degenerate fingerprinting and potential analysis techniques for anticipation, detection and forecast of tipping points in a dynamical system. Degenerate fingerprinting indicator is a dynamically derived lag-1 autocorrelation, ACF (or, alternatively, short-range scaling exponent of Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, DFA [1]), which shows short-term memory in a series. When such values rise monotonically, this indicates an upcoming transition or bifurcation in a series and can be used for early warning signals analysis. The potential analysis detects a transition or bifurcation in a series at the time when it happens, which is illustrated in a special contour plot mapping the potential dynamics of the system [2-6]. The methodology has been extensively tested on artificial data and on various geophysical, ecological and industrial sensor datasets [2-5,7], and proved to be applicable to trajectories of dynamical systems of arbitrary origin [9]. In this seismological application, we have obtained early warning signals in the described series using ACF- and DFA-indicators and detected the Rayleigh wave arrival in the potential contour plots. In the case of the event in 2010, the early warning signal starts appearing about 2 min before the first peak of the Rayleigh train is detected by the sensor, whereas in the case of event of 2011, the early warning signal appears closer to the peak arrival, within 1 min. The different strength of early warning signals of the Rayleigh trains may be due to different depths of the events (10 and 30 km), which we plan to test in further analysis. References: [1] Livina and Lenton, GRL 2007; [2] Livina et al, Climate of the Past 2010; [3] Livina et al, Climate Dynamics 2011; [4] Livina et al, Physica A 2012; [5] Livina and Lenton, Cryosphere 2013; [6] Livina et al, Physica A 2013; [7] Livina et al, Journal of Civil Structural Health Monitoring, in press; [8] Tolkova and Schaad, arXiv:1401.0096v1; [9] Vaz Martins et al, PRE 2010.

Research on the Risk Early Warning Method of Material Supplier Performance in Power Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Peng; Zhang, Xi

2018-01-01

The early warning of supplier performance risk is still in the initial stage interiorly, and research on the early warning mechanism to identify, analyze and prevent the performance risk is few. In this paper, a new method aiming at marerial supplier performance risk in power industry is proposed, firstly, establishing a set of risk early warning indexes, Then use the ECM method to classify the indexes to form different risk grades. Then, improving Crock Ford risk quantization model by considering three indicators, including the stability of power system, economic losses and successful bid ratio to form the predictive risk grade, and ultimately using short board effect principle to form the ultimate risk grade to truly reflect the supplier performance risk. Finally, making empirical analysis on supplier performance and putting forward the counter measures and prevention strategies for different risks.

Assessment of a drowsy driver warning system for heavy-vehicle drivers : final report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-04-01

Drowsiness has a globally negative impact on performance, slowing reaction time, decreasing situational awareness, and impairing judgment. A field operational test of an early prototype Drowsy Driver Warning System was conducted as a result of 12 yea...

Implementation of a landslide early warning system based on near-real-time monitoring, multisensor mapping and geophysical measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teza, Giordano; Galgaro, Antonio; Francese, Roberto; Ninfo, Andrea; Mariani, Rocco

2017-04-01

An early warning system has been implemented to monitor the Perarolo di Cadore landslide (North-Eastern Italian Alps), which is a slump whose induced risk is fairly high because a slope collapse could form a temporary dam on the underlying torrent and, therefore, could directly threaten the close village. A robotic total station (RTS) measures, with 6h returning time, the positions of 23 retro-reflectors placed on the landslide upper and middle sectors. The landslide's kinematical behavior derived from these near-real-time (NRT) surface displacements is interpreted on the basis of available geomorphological and geological information, geometrical data provided by some laser scanning and photogrammetric surveys, and a landslide model obtained by means of 3D Electrical Resistivity Tomography (3D ERT) measurements. In this way, an analysis of the time series provided by RTS and a pluviometer, which cover several years, allows the definition of some pre-alert and alert kinematical and rainfall thresholds. These thresholds, as well as the corresponding operational recommendations, are currently used for early warning purposes by Authorities involved in risk management for the Perarolo landslide. It should be noted the fact that, as new RTS and pluviometric data are available, the thresholds can be updated and, therefore, a fine tuning of the early warning system can be carried out in order to improve its performance. Although the proposed approach has been implemented in a particular case, it can be used to develop an early warning system based on NRT data in each site where a landslide threatens infrastructures and/or villages that cannot be relocated.

Early Flood Warning in Africa: Results of a Feasibility study in the JUBA, SHABELLE and ZAMBEZI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pappenberger, F. P.; de Roo, A. D.; Buizza, Roberto; Bodis, Katalin; Thiemig, Vera

2009-04-01

Building on the experiences gained with the European Flood Alert System (EFAS), pilot studies are carried out in three river basins in Africa. The European Flood Alert System, pre-operational since 2003, provides early flood alerts for European rivers. At present, the experiences with the European EFAS system are used to evaluate the feasibility of flood early warning for Africa. Three case studies are carried in the Juba and Shabelle rivers (Somalia and Ethiopia), and in the Zambesi river (Southern Africa). Predictions in these data scarce regions are extremely difficult to make as records of observations are scarce and often unreliable. Meteorological and Discharge observations are used to calibrate and test the model, as well as soils, landuse and topographic data available within the JRC African Observatory. ECMWF ERA-40, ERA-Interim data and re-forecasts of flood events from January to March 1978, and in March 2001 are evaluated to examine the feasibility for early flood warning. First results will be presented.

Flood Monitoring and Early Warning System Using Ultrasonic Sensor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Natividad, J. G.; Mendez, J. M.

2018-03-01

The purpose of this study is to develop a real-time flood monitoring and early warning system in the northern portion of the province of Isabela, particularly the municipalities near Cagayan River. Ultrasonic sensing techniques have become mature and are widely used in the various fields of engineering and basic science. One of advantage of ultrasonic sensing is its outstanding capability to probe inside objective non-destructively because ultrasound can propagate through any kinds of media including solids, liquids and gases. This study focuses only on the water level detection and early warning system (via website and/or SMS) that alerts concern agencies and individuals for a potential flood event. Furthermore, inquiry system is also included in this study to become more interactive wherein individuals in the community could inquire the actual water level and status of the desired area or location affected by flood thru SMS keyword. The study aims in helping citizens to be prepared and knowledgeable whenever there is a flood. The novelty of this work falls under the utilization of the Arduino, ultrasonic sensors, GSM module, web-monitoring and SMS early warning system in helping stakeholders to mitigate casualties related to flood. The paper envisions helping flood-prone areas which are common in the Philippines particularly to the local communities in the province. Indeed, it is relevant and important as per needs for safety and welfare of the community.

A triangular climate-based decision model to forecast crop anomalies in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guimarães Nobre, G.; Davenport, F.; Veldkamp, T.; Jongman, B.; Funk, C. C.; Husak, G. J.; Ward, P.; Aerts, J.

2017-12-01

By the end of 2017, the world is expected to experience unprecedented demands for food assistance where, across 45 countries, some 81 million people will face a food security crisis. Prolonged droughts in Eastern Africa are playing a major role in these crises. To mitigate famine risk and save lives, government bodies and international donor organisations are increasingly building up efforts to resolve conflicts and secure humanitarian relief. Disaster-relief and financing organizations traditionally focus on emergency response, providing aid after an extreme drought event, instead of taking actions in advance based on early warning. One of the reasons for this approach is that the seasonal risk information provided by early warning systems is often considered highly uncertain. Overcoming the reluctance to act based on early warnings greatly relies on understanding the risk of acting in vain, and assessing the cost-effectiveness of early actions. This research develops a triangular climate-based decision model for multiple seasonal time-scales to forecast strong anomalies in crop yield shortages in Kenya using Casual Discovery Algorithms and Fast and Frugal Decision Trees. This Triangular decision model (1) estimates the causality and strength of the relationship between crop yields and hydro climatological predictors (extracted from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network's data archive) during the crop growing season; (2) provides probabilistic forecasts of crop yield shortages in multiple time scales before the harvesting season; and (3) evaluates the cost-effectiveness of different financial mechanisms to respond to early warning indicators of crop yield shortages obtained from the model. Furthermore, we reflect on how such a model complements and advances the current state-of-art FEWS Net system, and examine its potential application to improve the management of agricultural risks in Kenya.

Solar Energetic Particle Warnings from a Coronagraph

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

St Cyr, O. C.; Posner, A.; Burkepile, J. T.

2017-01-01

We report here the concept of using near-real time observations from a coronagraph to provide early warning of a fast coronal mass ejection (CME) and the possible onset of a solar energetic particle (SEP) event. The 1 January 2016, fast CME, and its associated SEP event are cited as an example. The CME was detected by the ground-based K-Cor coronagraph at Mauna Loa Solar Observatory and by the SOHO Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph. The near-real-time availability of the high-cadence K-Cor observations in the low corona leads to an obvious question: Why has no one attempted to use a coronagraph as an early warning device for SEP events? The answer is that the low image cadence and the long latency of existing spaceborne coronagraphs make them valid for archival studies but typically unsuitable for near-real-time forecasting. The January 2016 event provided favorable CME viewing geometry and demonstrated that the primary component of a prototype ground-based system for SEP warnings is available several hours on most days. We discuss how a conceptual CME-based warning system relates to other techniques, including an estimate of the relative SEP warning times, and how such a system might be realized.

Research and Application of an Air Quality Early Warning System Based on a Modified Least Squares Support Vector Machine and a Cloud Model.

PubMed

Wang, Jianzhou; Niu, Tong; Wang, Rui

2017-03-02

The worsening atmospheric pollution increases the necessity of air quality early warning systems (EWSs). Despite the fact that a massive amount of investigation about EWS in theory and practicality has been conducted by numerous researchers, studies concerning the quantification of uncertain information and comprehensive evaluation are still lacking, which impedes further development in the area. In this paper, firstly a comprehensive warning system is proposed, which consists of two vital indispensable modules, namely effective forecasting and scientific evaluation, respectively. For the forecasting module, a novel hybrid model combining the theory of data preprocessing and numerical optimization is first developed to implement effective forecasting for air pollutant concentration. Especially, in order to further enhance the accuracy and robustness of the warning system, interval forecasting is implemented to quantify the uncertainties generated by forecasts, which can provide significant risk signals by using point forecasting for decision-makers. For the evaluation module, a cloud model, based on probability and fuzzy set theory, is developed to perform comprehensive evaluations of air quality, which can realize the transformation between qualitative concept and quantitative data. To verify the effectiveness and efficiency of the warning system, extensive simulations based on air pollutants data from Dalian in China were effectively implemented, which illustrate that the warning system is not only remarkably high-performance, but also widely applicable.

Research and Application of an Air Quality Early Warning System Based on a Modified Least Squares Support Vector Machine and a Cloud Model

PubMed Central

Wang, Jianzhou; Niu, Tong; Wang, Rui

2017-01-01

The worsening atmospheric pollution increases the necessity of air quality early warning systems (EWSs). Despite the fact that a massive amount of investigation about EWS in theory and practicality has been conducted by numerous researchers, studies concerning the quantification of uncertain information and comprehensive evaluation are still lacking, which impedes further development in the area. In this paper, firstly a comprehensive warning system is proposed, which consists of two vital indispensable modules, namely effective forecasting and scientific evaluation, respectively. For the forecasting module, a novel hybrid model combining the theory of data preprocessing and numerical optimization is first developed to implement effective forecasting for air pollutant concentration. Especially, in order to further enhance the accuracy and robustness of the warning system, interval forecasting is implemented to quantify the uncertainties generated by forecasts, which can provide significant risk signals by using point forecasting for decision-makers. For the evaluation module, a cloud model, based on probability and fuzzy set theory, is developed to perform comprehensive evaluations of air quality, which can realize the transformation between qualitative concept and quantitative data. To verify the effectiveness and efficiency of the warning system, extensive simulations based on air pollutants data from Dalian in China were effectively implemented, which illustrate that the warning system is not only remarkably high-performance, but also widely applicable. PMID:28257122

Getting Students on Track for Graduation: Impacts of the Early Warning Intervention and Monitoring System after One Year. REL 2017-272

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Faria, Ann-Marie; Sorensen, Nicholas; Heppen, Jessica; Bowdon, Jill; Taylor, Suzanne; Eisner, Ryan; Foster, Shandu

2017-01-01

Although high school graduation rates are rising--the national rate was 82 percent during the 2013/14 school year (U.S. Department of Education, 2015)--dropping out remains a persistent problem in the Midwest and nationally. Many schools now use early warning systems to identify students who are at risk of not graduating, with the goal of…

A holistic approach to SIM platform and its application to early-warning satellite system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Fuyu; Zhou, Jianping; Xu, Zheyao

2018-01-01

This study proposes a new simulation platform named Simulation Integrated Management (SIM) for the analysis of parallel and distributed systems. The platform eases the process of designing and testing both applications and architectures. The main characteristics of SIM are flexibility, scalability, and expandability. To improve the efficiency of project development, new models of early-warning satellite system were designed based on the SIM platform. Finally, through a series of experiments, the correctness of SIM platform and the aforementioned early-warning satellite models was validated, and the systematical analyses for the orbital determination precision of the ballistic missile during its entire flight process were presented, as well as the deviation of the launch/landing point. Furthermore, the causes of deviation and prevention methods will be fully explained. The simulation platform and the models will lay the foundations for further validations of autonomy technology in space attack-defense architecture research.

Research on intelligent scenic security early warning platform based on high resolution image: real scene linkage and real-time LBS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Baishou; Huang, Yu; Lan, Guangquan; Li, Tingting; Lu, Ting; Yao, Mingxing; Luo, Yuandan; Li, Boxiang; Qian, Yongyou; Gao, Yujiu

2015-12-01

This paper design and implement security monitor system within a scenic spot for tourists, the scenic spot staff can be automatic real time for visitors to perception and monitoring, and visitors can also know about themselves location in the scenic, real-time and obtain the 3D imaging conditions of scenic area. Through early warning can realize "parent-child relation", preventing the old man and child lost and wandering. Research results to the further development of virtual reality to provide effective security early warning platform of the theoretical basis and practical reference.

The TRIDEC Project: Future-Saving FOSS GIS Applications for Tsunami Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loewe, P.; Wächter, J.; Hammitzsch, M.

2011-12-01

The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 killed over 240,000 people in 14 countries and inundated the affected shorelines with waves reaching heights up to 30m. This natural disaster coincided with an information catastrophy, as potentially life-saving early warning information existed, yet no means were available to deliver it to the communities under imminent threat. Tsunami Early Warning Capabilities have improved in the meantime by continuing development of modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). However, recent tsunami events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key challenge for ongoing TEWS research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of reliable early warning messages. Since 2004, the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). This ongoing project focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application. All TRIDEC developments are based on Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) components and industry standards where-ever possible. Tsunami Early Warning in TRIDEC is also based on mature system architecture models to ensure long-term usability and the flexibility to adapt to future generations of Tsunami sensors. All open source software produced by the project consortium are foreseen to be published on FOSSLAB, a publicly available software repository provided by CEGIT. FOSSLAB serves as a platform for the development of FOSS projects in geospatial context, allowing to save, advance and reuse results achieved in previous and on-going project activities and enabling further development and collaboration with a wide community including scientists, developers, users and stakeholders. FOSSLABs potential to preserve and advance existing best practices for reuse in new scenarios is documented by a first case study: For TEWS education and public outreach a comprehensive approach to generate high resolution globe maps was compiled using GRASS GIS and the POV-Ray rendering software. The task resulted in the merging of isolated technical know-how into publicly available best practices, which had been previously maintained in disparate GIS- and rendering communities. Beyond the scope of TRIDEC, FOSSLAB constitutes an umbrella encompassing several geoinformatics-related activities, such as the documentation of Best Practices for experiences and results while working with Spatial Data Infrastructures (SDI), Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Geomatics, and future spatial processing on Computation Clusters and in Cloud Computing.

Performance analysis of landslide early warning systems at regional scale: the EDuMaP method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piciullo, Luca; Calvello, Michele

2016-04-01

Landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) reduce landslide risk by disseminating timely and meaningful warnings when the level of risk is judged intolerably high. Two categories of LEWSs, can be defined on the basis of their scale of analysis: "local" systems and "regional" systems. LEWSs at regional scale (ReLEWSs) are used to assess the probability of occurrence of landslides over appropriately-defined homogeneous warning zones of relevant extension, typically through the prediction and monitoring of meteorological variables, in order to give generalized warnings to the public. Despite many studies on ReLEWSs, no standard requirements exist for assessing their performance. Empirical evaluations are often carried out by simply analysing the time frames during which significant high-consequence landslides occurred in the test area. Alternatively, the performance evaluation is based on 2x2 contingency tables computed for the joint frequency distribution of landslides and alerts, both considered as dichotomous variables. In all these cases, model performance is assessed neglecting some important aspects which are peculiar to ReLEWSs, among which: the possible occurrence of multiple landslides in the warning zone; the duration of the warnings in relation to the time of occurrence of the landslides; the level of the warning issued in relation to the landslide spatial density in the warning zone; the relative importance system managers attribute to different types of errors. An original approach, called EDuMaP method, is proposed to assess the performance of landslide early warning models operating at regional scale. The method is composed by three main phases: Events analysis, Duration Matrix, Performance analysis. The events analysis phase focuses on the definition of landslide (LEs) and warning events (WEs), which are derived from available landslides and warnings databases according to their spatial and temporal characteristics by means of ten input parameters. The evaluation of time associated with the occurrence of landslide events (LE) in relation to the occurrence of warning events (WE) in their respective classes is a fundamental step to determine the duration matrix elements. On the other hand the classification of LEs and WEs establishes the structure of the duration matrix. Indeed, the number of rows and columns of the matrix is equal to the number of classes defined for the warning and landslide events, respectively. Thus the matrix is not expressed as a 2x2 contingency and LEs and WEs are not expressed as dichotomous variables. The final phase of the method is the evaluation of the duration matrix based on a set of performance criteria assigning a performance meaning to the element of the matrix. To this aim different criteria can be defined, for instance employing an alert classification scheme derived from 2x2 contingency tables or assigning a colour code to the elements of the matrix in relation to their grade of correctness. Finally, performance indicators can be derived from the performance criteria to quantify successes and errors of the early warning models. EDuMaP has been already applied to different real case studies, highlighting the adaptability of the method to analyse the performance of structurally different ReLEWSs.

Drought early warning and risk management in a changing environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.

2011-12-01

Drought has long been recognized as falling into the category of incremental but long-term and cumulative environmental changes, also termed slow-onset or creeping events. These event types would include: air and water quality decline, desertification processes, deforestation and forest fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and habitats, and nitrogen overloading, among others. Climate scientists continue to struggle with recognizing the onset of drought and scientists and policy makers continue to debate the basis (i.e., criteria) for declaring an end to a drought. Risk-based management approaches to drought planning at the national and regional levels have been recommended repeatedly over the years but their prototyping, testing and operational implementation have been limited. This presentation will outline two avenues for disaster risk reduction in the context of drought (1) integrated early warning information systems, and (2) linking disaster risk reduction to climate change adaptation strategies. Adaptation involves not only using operational facilities and infrastructure to cope with the immediate problems but also leaving slack or reserve for coping with multiple stress problems that produce extreme impacts and surprise. Increasing the 'anticipatability' of an event, involves both monitoring of key indicators from appropriate baseline data, and observing early warning signs that assumptions in risk management plans are failing and critical transitions are occurring. Illustrative cases will be drawn from the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters (2011), the UN Global Assessment of Disaster Risk Reduction (2011) and implementation activities in which the author has been engaged. Most drought early warning systems have tended to focus on the development and use of physical system indicators and forecasts of trends and thresholds. We show that successful early warning systems that meet expectations of risk management also have explicit foci on (1) integrating physical and social vulnerability indicators across timescales, (2) analytical capacity to generate local scenarios of risk using both analogs and projections, (3) the communication of risk-based information, and (4) the support and governance of a collaborative framework for early warning structures across spatial scales.

Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

PubMed Central

Dakos, Vasilis; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Brock, William A.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Guttal, Vishwesha; Ives, Anthony R.; Kéfi, Sonia; Livina, Valerie; Seekell, David A.; van Nes, Egbert H.; Scheffer, Marten

2012-01-01

Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting state can happen. Because critical transitions can occur unexpectedly and are difficult to manage, there is a need for methods that can be used to identify when a critical transition is approaching. Recent theory shows that we can identify the proximity of a system to a critical transition using a variety of so-called ‘early warning signals’, and successful empirical examples suggest a potential for practical applicability. However, while the range of proposed methods for predicting critical transitions is rapidly expanding, opinions on their practical use differ widely, and there is no comparative study that tests the limitations of the different methods to identify approaching critical transitions using time-series data. Here, we summarize a range of currently available early warning methods and apply them to two simulated time series that are typical of systems undergoing a critical transition. In addition to a methodological guide, our work offers a practical toolbox that may be used in a wide range of fields to help detect early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data. PMID:22815897

The Earthquake Early Warning System in Japan (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mori, J. J.; Yamada, M.

2010-12-01

In Japan, the earthquake early warning system (Kinkyu Jishin Sokuhou in Japanese) maintained by the Japan Meterological Agency (JMA) has been in operation and sending pubic information since October 1, 2007. Messages have been broadcast on television and radio to warn of strong shaking to the public. The threshold for broadcasting a message is an estimated intensity of JMA 5 lower, which is approximately equivalent to MM VII to VIII. During the period from October 2007 through August 2010, messages have been sent 9 times for earthquakes of magnitude 5.2 to 7.0. There have been a few instances of significantly over-estimating or under-estimating the predicted shaking, but in general the performance of the system has been quite good. The quality of the detection system depends on the dense network of high-quality seismometers that cover the Japanese Islands. Consequently, the system works very well for events on or close to the 4 main islands, but there is more uncertainty for events near the smaller and more distant islands where the density of instrumentation is much less The Early Warning System is also tied to an extensive education program so that the public can react appropriately in the short amount of time given by the warning. There appears to be good public support in Japan, where people have become accustomed to a high level of fast information on a daily basis. There has also been development of a number of specific safety applications in schools and industry that work off the backbone information provided in the national system.

Early warning of orographically induced floods and landslides in Western Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leine, Ann-Live; Wang, Thea; Boje, Søren

2017-04-01

In Western Norway, landslides and debris flows are commonly initiated by short-term orographic rainfall or intensity peaks during a prolonged rainfall event. In recent years, the flood warning service in Norway has evolved from being solely a flood forecasting service to also integrating landslides into its early warning systems. As both floods and landslides are closely related to the same hydrometeorological processes, particularly in small catchments, there is a natural synergy between monitoring flood and landslide risk. The Norwegian Flood and Landslide Hazard Forecasting and Warning Service issues regional landslide hazard warnings based on hydrological models, threshold values, observations and weather forecasts. Intense rainfall events and/or orographic precipitation that, under certain topographic conditions, significantly increase the risk of debris avalanches and debris floods are lately receiving more research focus from the Norwegian warning service. Orographic precipitation is a common feature in W-Norway, when moist and relatively mild air arrives from the Atlantic. Steep mountain slopes covered by glacial till makes the region prone to landslides, as well as flooding. The operational early warning system in Norway requires constant improvement, especially with the enhanced number of intense rainfall events that occur in a warming climate. Here, we examine different cases of intense rainfall events which have lead to landslides and debris flows, as well as increased runoff in fast responding small catchments. The main objective is to increase the understanding of the hydrometeorological conditions related to these events, in order to make priorities for the future development of the warning service.

Implementation of a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Augmentation to Tsunami Early Warning Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LaBrecque, John

2016-04-01

The Global Geodetic Observing System has issued a Call for Participation to research scientists, geodetic research groups and national agencies in support of the implementation of the IUGG recommendation for a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Augmentation to Tsunami Early Warning Systems. The call seeks to establish a working group to be a catalyst and motivating force for the definition of requirements, identification of resources, and for the encouragement of international cooperation in the establishment, advancement, and utilization of GNSS for Tsunami Early Warning. During the past fifteen years the populations of the Indo-Pacific region experienced a series of mega-thrust earthquakes followed by devastating tsunamis that claimed nearly 300,000 lives. The future resiliency of the region will depend upon improvements to infrastructure and emergency response that will require very significant investments from the Indo-Pacific economies. The estimation of earthquake moment magnitude, source mechanism and the distribution of crustal deformation are critical to rapid tsunami warning. Geodetic research groups have demonstrated the use of GNSS data to estimate earthquake moment magnitude, source mechanism and the distribution of crustal deformation sufficient for the accurate and timely prediction of tsunamis generated by mega-thrust earthquakes. GNSS data have also been used to measure the formation and propagation of tsunamis via ionospheric disturbances acoustically coupled to the propagating surface waves; thereby providing a new technique to track tsunami propagation across ocean basins, opening the way for improving tsunami propagation models, and providing accurate warning to communities in the far field. These two new advancements can deliver timely and accurate tsunami warnings to coastal communities in the near and far field of mega-thrust earthquakes. This presentation will present the justification for and the details of the GGOS Call for Participation.

Early warning of illegal development for protected areas by integrating cellular automata with neural networks.

PubMed

Li, Xia; Lao, Chunhua; Liu, Yilun; Liu, Xiaoping; Chen, Yimin; Li, Shaoying; Ai, Bing; He, Zijian

2013-11-30

Ecological security has become a major issue under fast urbanization in China. As the first two cities in this country, Shenzhen and Dongguan issued the ordinance of Eco-designated Line of Control (ELC) to "wire" ecologically important areas for strict protection in 2005 and 2009 respectively. Early warning systems (EWS) are a useful tool for assisting the implementation ELC. In this study, a multi-model approach is proposed for the early warning of illegal development by integrating cellular automata (CA) and artificial neural networks (ANN). The objective is to prevent the ecological risks or catastrophe caused by such development at an early stage. The integrated model is calibrated by using the empirical information from both remote sensing and handheld GPS (global positioning systems). The MAR indicator which is the ratio of missing alarms to all the warnings is proposed for better assessment of the model performance. It is found that the fast urban development has caused significant threats to natural-area protection in the study area. The integration of CA, ANN and GPS provides a powerful tool for describing and predicting illegal development which is in highly non-linear and fragmented forms. The comparison shows that this multi-model approach has much better performances than the single-model approach for the early warning. Compared with the single models of CA and ANN, this integrated multi-model can improve the value of MAR by 65.48% and 5.17% respectively. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the effects of implementing an electronic early warning score system: protocol for a stepped wedge study.

PubMed

Bonnici, Timothy; Gerry, Stephen; Wong, David; Knight, Julia; Watkinson, Peter

2016-02-09

An Early Warning Score is a clinical risk score based upon vital signs intended to aid recognition of patients in need of urgent medical attention. The use of an escalation of care policy based upon an Early Warning Score is mandated as the standard of practice in British hospitals. Electronic systems for recording vital sign observations and Early Warning Score calculation offer theoretical benefits over paper-based systems. However, the evidence for their clinical benefit is limited. Previous studies have shown inconsistent results. The majority have employed a "before and after" study design, which may be strongly confounded by simultaneously occurring events. This study aims to examine how the implementation of an electronic early warning score system, System for Notification and Documentation (SEND), affects the recognition of clinical deterioration occurring in hospitalised adult patients. This study is a non-randomised stepped wedge evaluation carried out across the four hospitals of the Oxford University Hospitals NHS Trust, comparing charting on paper and charting using SEND. We assume that more frequent monitoring of acutely ill patients is associated with better recognition of patient deterioration. The primary outcome measure is the time between a patient's first observations set with an Early Warning Score above the alerting threshold and their subsequent set of observations. Secondary outcome measures are in-hospital mortality, cardiac arrest and Intensive Care admission rates, hospital length of stay and system usability measured using the System Usability Scale. We will also measure Intensive Care length of stay, Intensive Care mortality, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II acute physiology score on admission, to examine whether the introduction of SEND has any effect on Intensive Care-related outcomes. The development of this protocol has been informed by guidance from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) Health Information Technology Evaluation Toolkit and Delone and McLeans's Model of Information System Success. Our chosen trial design, a stepped wedge study, is well suited to the study of a phased roll out. The choice of primary endpoint is challenging. We have selected the time from the first triggering observation set to the subsequent observation set. This has the benefit of being easy to measure on both paper and electronic charting and having a straightforward interpretation. We have collected qualitative measures of system quality via a user questionnaire and organisational descriptors to help readers understand the context in which SEND has been implemented.

Forecasting infectious disease emergence subject to seasonal forcing.

PubMed

Miller, Paige B; O'Dea, Eamon B; Rohani, Pejman; Drake, John M

2017-09-06

Despite high vaccination coverage, many childhood infections pose a growing threat to human populations. Accurate disease forecasting would be of tremendous value to public health. Forecasting disease emergence using early warning signals (EWS) is possible in non-seasonal models of infectious diseases. Here, we assessed whether EWS also anticipate disease emergence in seasonal models. We simulated the dynamics of an immunizing infectious pathogen approaching the tipping point to disease endemicity. To explore the effect of seasonality on the reliability of early warning statistics, we varied the amplitude of fluctuations around the average transmission. We proposed and analyzed two new early warning signals based on the wavelet spectrum. We measured the reliability of the early warning signals depending on the strength of their trend preceding the tipping point and then calculated the Area Under the Curve (AUC) statistic. Early warning signals were reliable when disease transmission was subject to seasonal forcing. Wavelet-based early warning signals were as reliable as other conventional early warning signals. We found that removing seasonal trends, prior to analysis, did not improve early warning statistics uniformly. Early warning signals anticipate the onset of critical transitions for infectious diseases which are subject to seasonal forcing. Wavelet-based early warning statistics can also be used to forecast infectious disease.

Role of remote sensing in desert locust early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cressman, Keith

2013-01-01

Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria, Forskål) plagues have historically had devastating consequences on food security in Africa and Asia. The current strategy to reduce the frequency of plagues and manage desert locust infestations is early warning and preventive control. To achieve this, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations operates one of the oldest, largest, and best-known migratory pest monitoring systems in the world. Within this system, remote sensing plays an important role in detecting rainfall and green vegetation. Despite recent technological advances in data management and analysis, communications, and remote sensing, monitoring desert locusts and preventing plagues in the years ahead will continue to be a challenge from a geopolitical and financial standpoint for affected countries and the international donor community. We present an overview of the use of remote sensing in desert locust early warning.

Development of Smart Grid for Community and Cyber based Landslide Hazard Monitoring and Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karnawati, D.; Wilopo, W.; Fathani, T. F.; Fukuoka, H.; Andayani, B.

2012-12-01

A Smart Grid is a cyber-based tool to facilitate a network of sensors for monitoring and communicating the landslide hazard and providing the early warning. The sensor is designed as an electronic sensor installed in the existing monitoring and early warning instruments, and also as the human sensors which comprise selected committed-people at the local community, such as the local surveyor, local observer, member of the local task force for disaster risk reduction, and any person at the local community who has been registered to dedicate their commitments for sending reports related to the landslide symptoms observed at their living environment. This tool is designed to be capable to receive up to thousands of reports/information at the same time through the electronic sensors, text message (mobile phone), the on-line participatory web as well as various social media such as Twitter and Face book. The information that should be recorded/ reported by the sensors is related to the parameters of landslide symptoms, for example the progress of cracks occurrence, ground subsidence or ground deformation. Within 10 minutes, this tool will be able to automatically elaborate and analyse the reported symptoms to predict the landslide hazard and risk levels. The predicted level of hazard/ risk can be sent back to the network of electronic and human sensors as the early warning information. The key parameters indicating the symptoms of landslide hazard were recorded/ monitored by the electrical and the human sensors. Those parameters were identified based on the investigation on geological and geotechnical conditions, supported with the laboratory analysis. The cause and triggering mechanism of landslide in the study area was also analysed in order to define the critical condition to launch the early warning. However, not only the technical but also social system were developed to raise community awareness and commitments to serve the mission as the human sensors, which will be responsible for reporting and informing the early warning. Therefore, a community empowerment and encouragement program through public education was conducted. Strategy and approach for this program was formulated based on the socio-engineering investigation. Finally, the results of technical and social engineering investigations, have been elaborated to further enhance the performance of expert system of the Smart Grid, in order to completely establish this system as an innovative and effective tool for the landslide monitoring and early warning in tropical-developing country.

Performance of Early Warning Systems on Landslides in Central America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauch, W.; Devoli, G.

2012-04-01

We performed a reconnaissance about Early Warning Systems (EWS) on Landslides (EWSL) in the countries of Central America. The advance of the EWSL began in the 1990-ies and accelerated dramatically after the regional disaster provoked by Hurricane Mitch in 1998. In the last decade, Early Warning Systems were intensely promoted by national and international development programs aimed on disaster prevention. Early Warning on landslides is more complicated than for other geological phenomena. But, we found information on more than 30 EWSL in the region. In practice, for example in planning, implementation and evaluation of development projects, it is often not clearly defined what exactly is an Early Warning System. Only few of the systems can be classified as true EWSL that means 1) being directly and solely aimed at persons living in the well-defined areas of greatest risk and 2) focusing their work on saving lives before the phenomenon impacts. There is little written information about the work of the EWSL after the initial phase. Even, there are no statistics whether they issued warnings, if the warnings were successful, how many people were evacuated, if there were few false alerts, etc.. Actually, we did not find a single report on a successful landslide warning issued by an EWSL. The lack of information is often due to the fact that communitarian EWSL are considered local structures and do not have a clearly defined position in the governmental hierarchy; there is little oversight and no qualified support and long-term support. The EWSL suffer from severe problems as lack of funding on the long term, low technical level, and insufficient support from central institutions. Often the EWSL are implemented by NGÓs with funding from international agencies, but leave the project alone after the initial phase. In many cases, the hope of the local people to get some protection against the landslide hazard is not really fulfilled. There is one case, where an EWSL with a good technical base was installed in 2001 in an area with risk of lahars. The system was too complicated to be managed by the municipality or there was not sufficient training, and soon the system stopped working. In 2009, lahars were triggered by extreme rains and around 100 people died in the area previously covered by this EWSL. We discuss the reasons for the poor performance of the projects developing EWSL in Central America and present proposals to make the more efficient and sustainable. This work was carried out in the frame of a project of UNESCO (Office San José, Costa Rica) in association with CEPREDENAC-SICA within the 7-th Plan of ECHO for Central America.

Feasibility of Using Elastic Wave Velocity Monitoring for Early Warning of Rainfall-Induced Slope Failure

PubMed Central

Chen, Yulong; Irfan, Muhammad; Uchimura, Taro; Zhang, Ke

2018-01-01

Rainfall-induced landslides are one of the most widespread slope instability phenomena posing a serious risk to public safety worldwide so that their temporal prediction is of great interest to establish effective warning systems. The objective of this study is to determine the effectiveness of elastic wave velocities in the surface layer of the slope in monitoring, prediction and early warning of landslide. The small-scale fixed and varied, and large-scale slope model tests were conducted. Analysis of the results has established that the elastic wave velocity continuously decreases in response of moisture content and deformation and there was a distinct surge in the decrease rate of wave velocity when failure was initiated. Based on the preliminary results of this analysis, the method using the change in elastic wave velocity proves superior for landslide early warning and suggests that a warning be issued at switch of wave velocity decrease rate. PMID:29584699

The Trend of Voluntary Warnings in Electronic Nicotine Delivery System Magazine Advertisements.

PubMed

Shang, Ce; Chaloupka, Frank J

2017-01-10

Some manufacturers of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) voluntarily carried health warnings in their advertisements. This study examined these voluntary warnings in magazine ads and plotted their trends between 2012 and early 2015. ENDS magazine ads were obtained through Kantar media and warnings were collected from the Chicago Public Library or the Trinkets and Trash surveillance system. The prevalence of voluntary warnings, warnings with the specific capitalized word "WARNING", and MarkTen warnings were examined after being weighted using factors related to exposure between January 2012 and March 2015. Five brands (MarkTen, NJOY, MISTIC, and some Blu) carried warnings during the study period. The prevalence of warnings post 2012 that contained a description of nicotine did not significantly increase until the launch of MarkTen, which also happened several months before April 2014 when the U.S. food and drug administration (FDA) published its proposed deeming rule. In addition, none of these warnings met the criteria required by the FDA in the final rules. Voluntary warnings, particularly MarkTen warnings, significantly increased in ENDS magazine ads between 2014 and 2015. It is important to monitor how ENDS manufacturers will comply with the FDA regulation related to warnings and how this regulation will ultimately impact ENDS risk perceptions and use.

A topology visualization early warning distribution algorithm for large-scale network security incidents.

PubMed

He, Hui; Fan, Guotao; Ye, Jianwei; Zhang, Weizhe

2013-01-01

It is of great significance to research the early warning system for large-scale network security incidents. It can improve the network system's emergency response capabilities, alleviate the cyber attacks' damage, and strengthen the system's counterattack ability. A comprehensive early warning system is presented in this paper, which combines active measurement and anomaly detection. The key visualization algorithm and technology of the system are mainly discussed. The large-scale network system's plane visualization is realized based on the divide and conquer thought. First, the topology of the large-scale network is divided into some small-scale networks by the MLkP/CR algorithm. Second, the sub graph plane visualization algorithm is applied to each small-scale network. Finally, the small-scale networks' topologies are combined into a topology based on the automatic distribution algorithm of force analysis. As the algorithm transforms the large-scale network topology plane visualization problem into a series of small-scale network topology plane visualization and distribution problems, it has higher parallelism and is able to handle the display of ultra-large-scale network topology.

A land data assimilation system for sub-Saharan Africa food and water security applications

PubMed Central

McNally, Amy; Arsenault, Kristi; Kumar, Sujay; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Peterson, Pete; Wang, Shugong; Funk, Chris; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Verdin, James P.

2017-01-01

Seasonal agricultural drought monitoring systems, which rely on satellite remote sensing and land surface models (LSMs), are important for disaster risk reduction and famine early warning. These systems require the best available weather inputs, as well as a long-term historical record to contextualize current observations. This article introduces the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), a custom instance of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. The FLDAS is routinely used to produce multi-model and multi-forcing estimates of hydro-climate states and fluxes over semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa. These modeled data and derived products, like soil moisture percentiles and water availability, were designed and are currently used to complement FEWS NET’s operational remotely sensed rainfall, evapotranspiration, and vegetation observations. The 30+ years of monthly outputs from the FLDAS simulations are publicly available from the NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) and recommended for use in hydroclimate studies, early warning applications, and by agro-meteorological scientists in Eastern, Southern, and Western Africa. PMID:28195575

A land data assimilation system for sub-Saharan Africa food and water security applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

McNally, Amy; Arsenault, Kristi; Kumar, Sujay; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Peterson, Pete; Wang, Shugong; Funk, Chris; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Verdin, James

2017-01-01

Seasonal agricultural drought monitoring systems, which rely on satellite remote sensing and land surface models (LSMs), are important for disaster risk reduction and famine early warning. These systems require the best available weather inputs, as well as a long-term historical record to contextualize current observations. This article introduces the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), a custom instance of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. The FLDAS is routinely used to produce multi-model and multi-forcing estimates of hydro-climate states and fluxes over semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa. These modeled data and derived products, like soil moisture percentiles and water availability, were designed and are currently used to complement FEWS NET’s operational remotely sensed rainfall, evapotranspiration, and vegetation observations. The 30+ years of monthly outputs from the FLDAS simulations are publicly available from the NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) and recommended for use in hydroclimate studies, early warning applications, and by agro-meteorological scientists in Eastern, Southern, and Western Africa.

A land data assimilation system for sub-Saharan Africa food and water security applications.

PubMed

McNally, Amy; Arsenault, Kristi; Kumar, Sujay; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Peterson, Pete; Wang, Shugong; Funk, Chris; Peters-Lidard, Christa D; Verdin, James P

2017-02-14

Seasonal agricultural drought monitoring systems, which rely on satellite remote sensing and land surface models (LSMs), are important for disaster risk reduction and famine early warning. These systems require the best available weather inputs, as well as a long-term historical record to contextualize current observations. This article introduces the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), a custom instance of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. The FLDAS is routinely used to produce multi-model and multi-forcing estimates of hydro-climate states and fluxes over semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa. These modeled data and derived products, like soil moisture percentiles and water availability, were designed and are currently used to complement FEWS NET's operational remotely sensed rainfall, evapotranspiration, and vegetation observations. The 30+ years of monthly outputs from the FLDAS simulations are publicly available from the NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) and recommended for use in hydroclimate studies, early warning applications, and by agro-meteorological scientists in Eastern, Southern, and Western Africa.

Data Descriptor: A Land Data Assimilation System for Sub-Saharan Africa Food and Water Security Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McNally, Amy; Arsenault, Krist; Kumar, Sujay; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Peter, Pete; Wang, Shugong; Funk, Chris; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Verdin, James

2017-01-01

Seasonal agricultural drought monitoring systems, which rely on satellite remote sensing and land surface models (LSMs), are important for disaster risk reduction and famine early warning. These systems require the best available weather inputs, as well as a long-term historical record to contextualize current observations. This article introduces the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), a custom instance of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. The FLDAS is routinely used to produce multi-model and multi-forcing estimates of hydro-climate states and fluxes over semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa. These modeled data and derived products, like soil moisture percentiles and water availability, were designed and are currently used to complement FEWSNETs operational remotely sensed rainfall, evapotranspiration, and vegetation observations. The 30+ years of monthly outputs from the FLDAS simulations are publicly available from the NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) and recommended for use in hydroclimate studies, early warning applications, and by agro-meteorological scientists in Eastern, Southern, and Western Africa.

A land data assimilation system for sub-Saharan Africa food and water security applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNally, Amy; Arsenault, Kristi; Kumar, Sujay; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Peterson, Pete; Wang, Shugong; Funk, Chris; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Verdin, James P.

2017-02-01

Seasonal agricultural drought monitoring systems, which rely on satellite remote sensing and land surface models (LSMs), are important for disaster risk reduction and famine early warning. These systems require the best available weather inputs, as well as a long-term historical record to contextualize current observations. This article introduces the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), a custom instance of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. The FLDAS is routinely used to produce multi-model and multi-forcing estimates of hydro-climate states and fluxes over semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa. These modeled data and derived products, like soil moisture percentiles and water availability, were designed and are currently used to complement FEWS NET's operational remotely sensed rainfall, evapotranspiration, and vegetation observations. The 30+ years of monthly outputs from the FLDAS simulations are publicly available from the NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) and recommended for use in hydroclimate studies, early warning applications, and by agro-meteorological scientists in Eastern, Southern, and Western Africa.

Global Drought Services: Collaborations Toward an Information System for Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, M. J.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Svoboda, M.

2014-12-01

Drought is a hazard that lends itself well to diligent, sustained monitoring and early warning. However, unlike most hazards, the fact that droughts typically evolve slowly, can last for months or years and cover vast areas spanning multiple political boundaries/jurisdictions and economic sectors can make it a daunting task to monitor, develop plans for, and identify appropriate, proactive mitigation strategies. The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) and National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) have been working together to reduce societal vulnerability to drought by helping decision makers at all levels to: 1) implement drought early warning/forecasting and decision support systems; 2) support and advocate for better collection of, and understanding of drought impacts; and 3) increase long-term resilience to drought through proactive planning. The NDMC and NIDIS risk management approach has been the basis from which many partners around the world are developing a collaboration and coordination nexus with an ultimate goal of building comprehensive global drought early warning information systems (GDEWIS). The core emphasis of this model is on developing and applying useful and usable information that can be integrated and transferred freely to other regions around the globe. The High-Level Ministerial Declaration on Drought, the Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) co-led by the WMO and the Global Water Partnership (GWP), and the Global Framework for Climate Services are drawing extensively from the integrated NDMC-NIDIS risk management framework. This presentation will describe, in detail, the various drought resources, tools, services, and collaborations already being provided and undertaken at the national and regional scales by the NDMC, NIDIS, and their partners. The presentation will be forward-looking, identifying improvements in existing and proposed mechanisms to help strengthen national and international drought early warning information systems to support preparedness and adaptation decisions in a changing climate.

Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Response System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erdik, M. O.; Fahjan, Y.; Ozel, O.; Alcik, H.; Aydin, M.; Gul, M.

2003-12-01

As part of the preparations for the future earthquake in Istanbul a Rapid Response and Early Warning system in the metropolitan area is in operation. For the Early Warning system ten strong motion stations were installed as close as possible to the fault zone. Continuous on-line data from these stations via digital radio modem provide early warning for potentially disastrous earthquakes. Considering the complexity of fault rupture and the short fault distances involved, a simple and robust Early Warning algorithm, based on the exceedance of specified threshold time domain amplitude levels is implemented. The band-pass filtered accelerations and the cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) are compared with specified threshold levels. When any acceleration or CAV (on any channel) in a given station exceeds specific threshold values it is considered a vote. Whenever we have 2 station votes within selectable time interval, after the first vote, the first alarm is declared. In order to specify the appropriate threshold levels a data set of near field strong ground motions records form Turkey and the world has been analyzed. Correlations among these thresholds in terms of the epicenter distance the magnitude of the earthquake have been studied. The encrypted early warning signals will be communicated to the respective end users by UHF systems through a "service provider" company. The users of the early warning signal will be power and gas companies, nuclear research facilities, critical chemical factories, subway system and several high-rise buildings. Depending on the location of the earthquake (initiation of fault rupture) and the recipient facility the alarm time can be as high as about 8s. For the rapid response system one hundred 18 bit-resolution strong motion accelerometers were placed in quasi-free field locations (basement of small buildings) in the populated areas of the city, within an area of approximately 50x30km, to constitute a network that will enable early damage assessment and rapid response information after a damaging earthquake. Early response information is achieved through fast acquisition and analysis of processed data obtained from the network. The stations are routinely interrogated on regular basis by the main data center. After triggered by an earthquake, each station processes the streaming strong motion data to yield the spectral accelerations at specific periods, 12Hz filtered PGA and PGV and will send these parameters in the form of SMS messages at every 20s directly to the main data center through a designated GSM network and through a microwave system. A shake map and damage distribution map (using aggregate building inventories and fragility curves) will be automatically generated using the algorithm developed for this purpose. Loss assessment studies are complemented by a large citywide digital database on the topography, geology, soil conditions, building, infrastructure and lifeline inventory. The shake and damage maps will be conveyed to the governor's and mayor's offices, fire, police and army headquarters within 3 minutes using radio modem and GPRS communication. An additional forty strong motion recorders were placed on important structures in several interconnected clusters to monitor the health of these structures after a damaging earthquake.

Early warning model based on correlated networks in global crude oil markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Jia-Wei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang

2018-01-01

Applying network tools on predicting and warning the systemic risks provides a novel avenue to manage risks in financial markets. Here, we construct a series of global crude oil correlated networks based on the historical 57 oil prices covering a period from 1993 to 2012. Two systemic risk indicators are constructed based on the density and modularity of correlated networks. The local maximums of the risk indicators are found to have the ability to predict the trends of oil prices. In our sample periods, the indicator based on the network density sends five signals and the indicator based on the modularity index sends four signals. The four signals sent by both indicators are able to warn the drop of future oil prices and the signal only sent by the network density is followed by a huge rise of oil prices. Our results deepen the application of network measures on building early warning models of systemic risks and can be applied to predict the trends of future prices in financial markets.

Current NASA Earth Remote Sensing Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Sprigg, William A.; Huete, Alfredo; Pejanovic, Goran; Nickovic, Slobodan; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo; Krapfl, Heide; Budge, Amy; Zelicoff, Alan; Myers, Orrin;

SafeLand guidelines for landslide monitoring and early warning systems in Europe - Design and required technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bazin, S.

2012-04-01

Landslide monitoring means the comparison of landslide characteristics like areal extent, speed of movement, surface topography and soil humidity from different periods in order to assess landslide activity. An ultimate "universal" methodology for this purpose does not exist; every technology has its own advantages and disadvantages. End-users should carefully consider each one to select the methodologies that represent the best compromise between pros and cons, and are best suited for their needs. Besides monitoring technology, there are many factors governing the choice of an Early Warning System (EWS). A people-centred EWS necessarily comprises five key elements: (1) knowledge of the risks; (2) identification, monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; (3) operational centre; (4) communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and (5) local capabilities to respond to the warnings received. The expression "end-to-end warning system" is also used to emphasize that EWSs need to span all steps from hazard detection through to community response. The aim of the present work is to provide guidelines for establishing the different components for landslide EWSs. One of the main deliverables of the EC-FP7 SafeLand project addresses the technical and practical issues related to monitoring and early warning for landslides, and identifies the best technologies available in the context of both hazard assessment and design of EWSs. This deliverable targets the end-users and aims to facilitate the decision process by providing guidelines. For the purpose of sharing the globally accumulated expertise, a screening study was done on 14 EWSs from 8 different countries. On these bases, the report presents a synoptic view of existing monitoring methodologies and early-warning strategies and their applicability for different landslide types, scales and risk management steps. Several comprehensive checklists and toolboxes are also included to support informed decisions. The deliverable was compiled with contributions from experts on landslides, monitoring technologies, remote sensing, and social researchers from 16 European institutions. The deliverable addresses one of the main objectives of the SafeLand project, namely to merge experience and expert judgment and create synergies on European level towards guidelines for early warning and to make these results available to end-users and local stakeholders.

A vantage from space can detect earlier drought onset: an approach using relative humidity.

PubMed

Farahmand, Alireza; AghaKouchak, Amir; Teixeira, Joao

2015-02-25

Each year, droughts cause significant economic and agricultural losses across the world. The early warning and onset detection of drought is of particular importance for effective agriculture and water resource management. Previous studies show that the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), a measure of precipitation deficit, detects drought onset earlier than other indicators. Here we show that satellite-based near surface air relative humidity data can further improve drought onset detection and early warning. This paper introduces the Standardized Relative Humidity Index (SRHI) based on the NASA Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations. The results indicate that the SRHI typically detects the drought onset earlier than the SPI. While the AIRS mission was not originally designed for drought monitoring, we show that its relative humidity data offers a new and unique avenue for drought monitoring and early warning. We conclude that the early warning aspects of SRHI may have merit for integration into current drought monitoring systems.

[Early warning on measles through the neural networks].

PubMed

Yu, Bin; Ding, Chun; Wei, Shan-bo; Chen, Bang-hua; Liu, Pu-lin; Luo, Tong-yong; Wang, Jia-gang; Pan, Zhi-wei; Lu, Jun-an

2011-01-01

To discuss the effects on early warning of measles, using the neural networks. Based on the available data through monthly and weekly reports on measles from January 1986 to August 2006 in Wuhan city. The modal was developed using the neural networks to predict and analyze the prevalence and incidence of measles. When the dynamic time series modal was established with back propagation (BP) networks consisting of two layers, if p was assigned as 9, the convergence speed was acceptable and the correlation coefficient was equal to 0.85. It was more acceptable for monthly forecasting the specific value, but better for weekly forecasting the classification under probabilistic neural networks (PNN). When data was big enough to serve the purpose, it seemed more feasible for early warning using the two-layer BP networks. However, when data was not enough, then PNN could be used for the purpose of prediction. This method seemed feasible to be used in the system for early warning.

A Vantage from Space Can Detect Earlier Drought Onset: An Approach Using Relative Humidity

PubMed Central

Farahmand, Alireza; AghaKouchak, Amir; Teixeira, Joao

2015-01-01

Each year, droughts cause significant economic and agricultural losses across the world. The early warning and onset detection of drought is of particular importance for effective agriculture and water resource management. Previous studies show that the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), a measure of precipitation deficit, detects drought onset earlier than other indicators. Here we show that satellite-based near surface air relative humidity data can further improve drought onset detection and early warning. This paper introduces the Standardized Relative Humidity Index (SRHI) based on the NASA Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations. The results indicate that the SRHI typically detects the drought onset earlier than the SPI. While the AIRS mission was not originally designed for drought monitoring, we show that its relative humidity data offers a new and unique avenue for drought monitoring and early warning. We conclude that the early warning aspects of SRHI may have merit for integration into current drought monitoring systems. PMID:25711500

Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in Rural Africa using the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A.

2010-12-01

Early warnings of malaria transmission allow health officials to better prepare for future epidemics. Monitoring rainfall is recognized as an important part of malaria early warning systems, as outlined by the Roll Back Malaria Initiative. The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model that relates rainfall to malaria transmission, and could be used to provide early warnings of malaria epidemics. HYDREMATS is used to make predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity for 2005, 2006, and 2007 in Banizoumbou village in western Niger. HYDREMATS is forced by observed rainfall, followed by a rainfall prediction based on the seasonal mean rainfall for a period two or four weeks into the future. Predictions made using this method provided reasonable estimates of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, two to four weeks in advance. The predictions were significantly improved compared to those made when HYDREMATS was forced with seasonal mean rainfall alone.

Development of a consortium for water security and safety: Planning for an early warning system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, R.M.; Adam, N.R.; Atluri, V.; Halem, M.; Vowinkel, E.F.; ,

2004-01-01

The events of September 11, 2001 have raised concerns over the safety and security of the Nation's critical infrastructure including water and waste water systems. In June 2002, the U.S. EPA's Region II Office (New York City), in response to concerns over water security, in collaboration with Rutgers University agreed to establish a Regional Drinking Water Security and Safety Consortium (RDWSSC). Members of the consortium include: Rutgers University's Center for Information Management, Integration and Connectivity (CIMIC), American Water (AW), the Passaic Valley Water Commission (PVWC), the North Jersey District Water Supply Commission (NJDWSC), the N.J. Department of Environmental Protection, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agencies, Region II Office. In December of 2002 the consortium members signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to pursue activities to enhance regional water security. Development of an early warning system for source and distributed water was identified as being of primary importance by the consortium. In this context, an early warning system (EWS) is an integrated system of monitoring stations located at strategic points in a water utilities source waters or in its distribution system, designed to warn against contaminants that might threaten the health and welfare of drinking water consumers. This paper will discuss the consortium's progress in achieving these important objectives.

A spatiotemporal dengue fever early warning model accounting for nonlinear associations with meteorological factors: a Bayesian maximum entropy approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chien, Lung-Chang

2014-05-01

Dengue fever has been identified as one of the most widespread vector-borne diseases in tropical and sub-tropical. In the last decade, dengue is an emerging infectious disease epidemic in Taiwan especially in the southern area where have annually high incidences. For the purpose of disease prevention and control, an early warning system is urgently needed. Previous studies have showed significant relationships between climate variables, in particular, rainfall and temperature, and the temporal epidemic patterns of dengue cases. However, the transmission of the dengue fever is a complex interactive process that mostly understated the composite space-time effects of dengue fever. This study proposes developing a one-week ahead warning system of dengue fever epidemics in the southern Taiwan that considered nonlinear associations between weekly dengue cases and meteorological factors across space and time. The early warning system based on an integration of distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and stochastic Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) analysis. The study identified the most significant meteorological measures including weekly minimum temperature and maximum 24-hour rainfall with continuous 15-week lagged time to dengue cases variation under condition of uncertainty. Subsequently, the combination of nonlinear lagged effects of climate variables and space-time dependence function is implemented via a Bayesian framework to predict dengue fever occurrences in the southern Taiwan during 2012. The result shows the early warning system is useful for providing potential outbreak spatio-temporal prediction of dengue fever distribution. In conclusion, the proposed approach can provide a practical disease control tool for environmental regulators seeking more effective strategies for dengue fever prevention.

Synergy of Earth Observation and In-Situ Monitoring Data for Flood Hazard Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brodsky, Lukas; Kodesova, Radka; Spazierova, Katerina

2010-12-01

In this study, we demonstrate synergy of EO and in-situ monitoring data for early warning flood hazard system in the Czech Republic developed within ESA PECS project FLOREO. The development of the demonstration system is oriented to support existing monitoring activities, especially snow melt and surface water runoff contributing to flooding events. The system consists of two main parts accordingly, the first is snow cover and snow melt monitoring driven mainly by EO data and the other is surface water runoff modeling and monitoring driven by synergy of in-situ and EO data.

The Trend of Voluntary Warnings in Electronic Nicotine Delivery System Magazine Advertisements

PubMed Central

Shang, Ce; Chaloupka, Frank J.

2017-01-01

Some manufacturers of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) voluntarily carried health warnings in their advertisements. This study examined these voluntary warnings in magazine ads and plotted their trends between 2012 and early 2015. ENDS magazine ads were obtained through Kantar media and warnings were collected from the Chicago Public Library or the Trinkets and Trash surveillance system. The prevalence of voluntary warnings, warnings with the specific capitalized word “WARNING”, and MarkTen warnings were examined after being weighted using factors related to exposure between January 2012 and March 2015. Five brands (MarkTen, NJOY, MISTIC, and some Blu) carried warnings during the study period. The prevalence of warnings post 2012 that contained a description of nicotine did not significantly increase until the launch of MarkTen, which also happened several months before April 2014 when the U.S. food and drug administration (FDA) published its proposed deeming rule. In addition, none of these warnings met the criteria required by the FDA in the final rules. Voluntary warnings, particularly MarkTen warnings, significantly increased in ENDS magazine ads between 2014 and 2015. It is important to monitor how ENDS manufacturers will comply with the FDA regulation related to warnings and how this regulation will ultimately impact ENDS risk perceptions and use. PMID:28075420

Earthquake Early Warning Beta Users: Java, Modeling, and Mobile Apps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauss, J. A.; Vinci, M.; Steele, W. P.; Allen, R. M.; Hellweg, M.

2014-12-01

Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) is a system that can provide a few to tens of seconds warning prior to ground shaking at a user's location. The goal and purpose of such a system is to reduce, or minimize, the damage, costs, and casualties resulting from an earthquake. A demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) is undergoing testing in the United States by the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, Caltech, ETH Zurich, University of Washington, the USGS, and beta users in California and the Pacific Northwest. The beta users receive earthquake information very rapidly in real-time and are providing feedback on their experiences of performance and potential uses within their organization. Beta user interactions allow the ShakeAlert team to discern: which alert delivery options are most effective, what changes would make the UserDisplay more useful in a pre-disaster situation, and most importantly, what actions users plan to take for various scenarios. Actions could include: personal safety approaches, such as drop cover, and hold on; automated processes and procedures, such as opening elevator or fire stations doors; or situational awareness. Users are beginning to determine which policy and technological changes may need to be enacted, and funding requirements to implement their automated controls. The use of models and mobile apps are beginning to augment the basic Java desktop applet. Modeling allows beta users to test their early warning responses against various scenarios without having to wait for a real event. Mobile apps are also changing the possible response landscape, providing other avenues for people to receive information. All of these combine to improve business continuity and resiliency.

The pathway to earthquake early warning in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, R. M.; Given, D. D.; Heaton, T. H.; Vidale, J. E.; West Coast Earthquake Early Warning Development Team

2013-05-01

The development of earthquake early warning capabilities in the United States is now accelerating and expanding as the technical capability to provide warning is demonstrated and additional funding resources are making it possible to expand the current testing region to the entire west coast (California, Oregon and Washington). Over the course of the next two years we plan to build a prototype system that will provide a blueprint for a full public system in the US. California currently has a demonstrations warning system, ShakeAlert, that provides alerts to a group of test users from the public and private sector. These include biotech companies, technology companies, the entertainment industry, the transportation sector, and the emergency planning and response community. Most groups are currently in an evaluation mode, receiving the alerts and developing protocols for future response. The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) system is the one group who has now implemented an automated response to the warning system. BART now stops trains when an earthquake of sufficient size is detected. Research and development also continues to develop improved early warning algorithms to better predict the distribution of shaking in large earthquakes when the finiteness of the source becomes important. The algorithms under development include the use of both seismic and GPS instrumentation and integration with existing point source algorithms. At the same time, initial testing and development of algorithms in and for the Pacific Northwest is underway. In this presentation we will review the current status of the systems, highlight the new research developments, and lay out a pathway to a full public system for the US west coast. The research and development described is ongoing at Caltech, UC Berkeley, University of Washington, ETH Zurich, Southern California Earthquake Center, and the US Geological Survey, and is funded by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and the US Geological Survey.

The Role of North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) In Military Cyber Attack Warning

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-01

WARNING MISSIONS .....................................5  1.  Early North American Air Defense Warning ...................................5  2...BLANK xi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.   North American Distant Early Warning (DEW) Site. .......................................6  Figure 2.   Original... Early Warning (AEW) Aircraft .........................................11  Figure 7.   Headquarters NORAD and USNORTHCOM

Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boulton, Chris A.; Allison, Lesley C.; Lenton, Timothy M.

2014-12-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached.

Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model

PubMed Central

Boulton, Chris A.; Allison, Lesley C.; Lenton, Timothy M.

2014-01-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached. PMID:25482065

Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model.

PubMed

Boulton, Chris A; Allison, Lesley C; Lenton, Timothy M

2014-12-08

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached.

Switch of Sensitivity Dynamics Revealed with DyGloSA Toolbox for Dynamical Global Sensitivity Analysis as an Early Warning for System's Critical Transition

PubMed Central

Baumuratova, Tatiana; Dobre, Simona; Bastogne, Thierry; Sauter, Thomas

2013-01-01

Systems with bifurcations may experience abrupt irreversible and often unwanted shifts in their performance, called critical transitions. For many systems like climate, economy, ecosystems it is highly desirable to identify indicators serving as early warnings of such regime shifts. Several statistical measures were recently proposed as early warnings of critical transitions including increased variance, autocorrelation and skewness of experimental or model-generated data. The lack of automatized tool for model-based prediction of critical transitions led to designing DyGloSA – a MATLAB toolbox for dynamical global parameter sensitivity analysis (GPSA) of ordinary differential equations models. We suggest that the switch in dynamics of parameter sensitivities revealed by our toolbox is an early warning that a system is approaching a critical transition. We illustrate the efficiency of our toolbox by analyzing several models with bifurcations and predicting the time periods when systems can still avoid going to a critical transition by manipulating certain parameter values, which is not detectable with the existing SA techniques. DyGloSA is based on the SBToolbox2 and contains functions, which compute dynamically the global sensitivity indices of the system by applying four main GPSA methods: eFAST, Sobol's ANOVA, PRCC and WALS. It includes parallelized versions of the functions enabling significant reduction of the computational time (up to 12 times). DyGloSA is freely available as a set of MATLAB scripts at http://bio.uni.lu/systems_biology/software/dyglosa. It requires installation of MATLAB (versions R2008b or later) and the Systems Biology Toolbox2 available at www.sbtoolbox2.org. DyGloSA can be run on Windows and Linux systems, -32 and -64 bits. PMID:24367574

Switch of sensitivity dynamics revealed with DyGloSA toolbox for dynamical global sensitivity analysis as an early warning for system's critical transition.

PubMed

Baumuratova, Tatiana; Dobre, Simona; Bastogne, Thierry; Sauter, Thomas

2013-01-01

Systems with bifurcations may experience abrupt irreversible and often unwanted shifts in their performance, called critical transitions. For many systems like climate, economy, ecosystems it is highly desirable to identify indicators serving as early warnings of such regime shifts. Several statistical measures were recently proposed as early warnings of critical transitions including increased variance, autocorrelation and skewness of experimental or model-generated data. The lack of automatized tool for model-based prediction of critical transitions led to designing DyGloSA - a MATLAB toolbox for dynamical global parameter sensitivity analysis (GPSA) of ordinary differential equations models. We suggest that the switch in dynamics of parameter sensitivities revealed by our toolbox is an early warning that a system is approaching a critical transition. We illustrate the efficiency of our toolbox by analyzing several models with bifurcations and predicting the time periods when systems can still avoid going to a critical transition by manipulating certain parameter values, which is not detectable with the existing SA techniques. DyGloSA is based on the SBToolbox2 and contains functions, which compute dynamically the global sensitivity indices of the system by applying four main GPSA methods: eFAST, Sobol's ANOVA, PRCC and WALS. It includes parallelized versions of the functions enabling significant reduction of the computational time (up to 12 times). DyGloSA is freely available as a set of MATLAB scripts at http://bio.uni.lu/systems_biology/software/dyglosa. It requires installation of MATLAB (versions R2008b or later) and the Systems Biology Toolbox2 available at www.sbtoolbox2.org. DyGloSA can be run on Windows and Linux systems, -32 and -64 bits.

A Walk through TRIDEC's intermediate Tsunami Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammitzsch, M.; Reißland, S.; Lendholt, M.

2012-04-01

The management of natural crises is an important application field of the technology developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), co-funded by the European Commission in its Seventh Framework Programme. TRIDEC is based on the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) providing a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination. In TRIDEC new developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) are used to extend the existing platform realising a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems for deployment, e.g. in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing challenges, such as the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources with accelerated generation of large volumes of data. These include sensor systems, geo-information repositories, simulation tools and data fusion tools. In addition to conventional sensors also unconventional sensors and sensor networks play an important role in TRIDEC. The system version presented is based on service-oriented architecture (SOA) concepts and on relevant standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). In this way the system continuously gathers, processes and displays events and data coming from open sensor platforms to enable operators to quickly decide whether an early warning is necessary and to send personalized warning messages to the authorities and the population at large through a wide range of communication channels. The system integrates OGC Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of hazardous events, like earthquakes, sea level anomalies, ocean floor occurrences, and ground displacements. Using OGC Web Map Service (WMS) and Web Feature Service (WFS) spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture. The integration of a simulation system to identify affected areas is considered using the OGC Web Processing Service (WPS). Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) together with addressing information defined via the OASIS Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element (EDXL-DE). The first system demonstrator has been designed and implemented to support plausible scenarios demonstrating the treatment of simulated tsunami threats with an essential subset of a National Tsunami Warning Centre (NTWC). The feasibility and the potentials of the implemented approach are demonstrated covering standard operations as well as tsunami detection and alerting functions. The demonstrator presented addresses information management and decision-support processes in a hypothetical natural crisis situation caused by a tsunami in the Eastern Mediterranean. Developments of the system are based to the largest extent on free and open source software (FOSS) components and industry standards. Emphasis has been and will be made on leveraging open source technologies that support mature system architecture models wherever appropriate. All open source software produced is foreseen to be published on a publicly available software repository thus allowing others to reuse results achieved and enabling further development and collaboration with a wide community including scientists, developers, users and stakeholders. This live demonstration is linked with the talk "TRIDEC Natural Crisis Management Demonstrator for Tsunamis" (EGU2012-7275) given in the session "Architecture of Future Tsunami Warning Systems" (NH5.7/ESSI1.7).

Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil.

PubMed

Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio As; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

2016-02-24

Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics.

Famine Early Warning Systems and Their Use of Satellite Remote Sensing Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.; Essam, Timothy; Leonard, Kenneth

2011-01-01

Famine early warning organizations have experience that has much to contribute to efforts to incorporate climate and weather information into economic and political systems. Food security crises are now caused almost exclusively by problems of food access, not absolute food availability, but the role of monitoring agricultural production both locally and globally remains central. The price of food important to the understanding of food security in any region, but it needs to be understood in the context of local production. Thus remote sensing is still at the center of much food security analysis, along with an examination of markets, trade and economic policies during food security analyses. Technology including satellite remote sensing, earth science models, databases of food production and yield, and modem telecommunication systems contributed to improved food production information. Here we present an econometric approach focused on bringing together satellite remote sensing and market analysis into food security assessment in the context of early warning.

Heatwave early warning systems and adaptation advice to reduce human health consequences of heatwaves.

PubMed

Lowe, Dianne; Ebi, Kristie L; Forsberg, Bertil

2011-12-01

With climate change, there has been an increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of heatwave events. In response to the devastating mortality and morbidity of recent heatwave events, many countries have introduced heatwave early warning systems (HEWS). HEWS are designed to reduce the avoidable human health consequences of heatwaves through timely notification of prevention measures to vulnerable populations. To identify the key characteristics of HEWS in European countries to help inform modification of current, and development of, new systems and plans. We searched the internet to identify HEWS policy or government documents for 33 European countries and requested information from relevant organizations. We translated the HEWS documents and extracted details on the trigger indicators, thresholds for action, notification strategies, message intermediaries, communication and dissemination strategies, prevention strategies recommended and specified target audiences. Twelve European countries have HEWS. Although there are many similarities among the HEWS, there also are differences in key characteristics that could inform improvements in heatwave early warning plans.

New insights into flood warning reception and emergency response by affected parties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreibich, Heidi; Müller, Meike; Schröter, Kai; Thieken, Annegret H.

2017-11-01

Flood damage can be mitigated if the parties at risk are reached by flood warnings and if they know how to react appropriately. To gain more knowledge about warning reception and emergency response of private households and companies, surveys were undertaken after the August 2002 and the June 2013 floods in Germany. Despite pronounced regional differences, the results show a clear overall picture: in 2002, early warnings did not work well; e.g. many households (27 %) and companies (45 %) stated that they had not received any flood warnings. Additionally, the preparedness of private households and companies was low in 2002, mainly due to a lack of flood experience. After the 2002 flood, many initiatives were launched and investments undertaken to improve flood risk management, including early warnings and an emergency response in Germany. In 2013, only a small share of the affected households (5 %) and companies (3 %) were not reached by any warnings. Additionally, private households and companies were better prepared. For instance, the share of companies which have an emergency plan in place has increased from 10 % in 2002 to 34 % in 2013. However, there is still room for improvement, which needs to be triggered mainly by effective risk and emergency communication. The challenge is to continuously maintain and advance an integrated early warning and emergency response system even without the occurrence of extreme floods.

Role of MODIS Vegetation Phenology Products in the U.S. for Warn Early Warning System for Forest Threats

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spruce, Joseph; Hargrove, William; Norman, Steve; Gasser, Gerald; Smoot, James; Kuper, Philip

2012-01-01

U.S. forests occupy approx 751 million acres (approx 1/3 of total land). Several abiotic and biotic damage agents disturb, damage, kill, and/or threaten these forests. Regionally extensive forest disturbances can also threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. timely regional forest disturbance monitoring products are needed to aid forest health management work at finer scales. daily MODIS data provide a means to monitor regional forest disturbances on a weekly basis, leveraging vegetation phenology. In response, the USFS and NASA began collaborating in 2006 to develop a Near Real Time (NRT) forest monitoring capability, based on MODIS NDVI data, as part of a national forest threat Early Warning System (EWS).

An early warning system to forecast the close of the spring burning window from satellite-observed greenness.

PubMed

Pickell, Paul D; Coops, Nicholas C; Ferster, Colin J; Bater, Christopher W; Blouin, Karen D; Flannigan, Mike D; Zhang, Jinkai

2017-10-27

Spring represents the peak of human-caused wildfire events in populated boreal forests, resulting in catastrophic loss of property and human life. Human-caused wildfire risk is anticipated to increase in northern forests as fuels become drier, on average, under warming climate scenarios and as population density increases within formerly remote regions. We investigated springtime human-caused wildfire risk derived from satellite-observed vegetation greenness in the early part of the growing season, a period of increased ignition and wildfire spread potential from snow melt to vegetation green-up with the aim of developing an early warning wildfire risk system. The initial system was developed for 392,856 km 2 of forested lands with satellite observations available prior to the start of the official wildfire season and predicted peak human-caused wildfire activity with 10-day accuracy for 76% of wildfire-protected lands by March 22. The early warning system could have significant utility as a cost-effective solution for wildfire managers to prioritize the deployment of wildfire protection resources in wildfire-prone landscapes across boreal-dominated ecosystems of North America, Europe, and Russia using open access Earth observations.

Developing the Framework for an Early Warning System for Ebola based on Environmental Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dartevelle, Sebastien; Nguy-Robertson, Anthony; Bell, Jesse; Chretien, Jean-Paul

2017-04-01

The 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa indicated that this lethal disease can become a National Security issue as it crossed boarders and taxed regional health care systems. Ebola symptoms are also similar to other endemic diseases. Thus, forewarning of its possible presence can alert local public health facilities and populations, and may thereby reduce response time. Early work by our group has identified local climate (e.g. temperature, precipitation) and vegetation health (e.g. remote sensing using normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) variables as leading indicators to known historical Ebola outbreaks. The environmental stress placed on the system as it reaches a climatic tipping point provides optimal conditions for spillover of Ebola virus from the reservoir host (which is unknown but suspected to be bats) to humans. This work outlines a framework for an approach to provide early warning maps based on the present state of the environment. Time series data from Climate Forecast System ver. 2 and AVHRR and MODIS satellite sensors are the basis for the early warning models used. These maps can provide policy makers and local health care professionals timely information for disease surveillance and preparation for future Ebola outbreaks.

CISN ShakeAlert: Using early warnings for earthquakes in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vinci, M.; Hellweg, M.; Jones, L. M.; Khainovski, O.; Schwartz, K.; Lehrer, D.; Allen, R. M.; Neuhauser, D. S.

2009-12-01

Educated users who have developed response plans and procedures are just as important for an earthquake early warning (EEW) system as are the algorithms and computers that process the data and produce the warnings. In Japan, for example, the implementation of the EEW system which now provides advanced alerts of ground shaking included intense outreach efforts to both institutional and individual recipients. Alerts are now used in automatic control systems that stop trains, place sensitive equipment in safe mode and isolate hazards while the public takes cover. In California, the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) is now developing and implementing components of a prototype system for EEW, ShakeAlert. As this processing system is developed, we invite a suite of perspective users from critical industries and institutions throughout California to partner with us in developing useful ShakeAlert products and procedures. At the same time, we will support their efforts to determine and implement appropriate responses to an early warning of earthquake shaking. As a first step, in a collaboration with BART, we have developed a basic system allowing BART’s operation center to receive realtime ground shaking information from more than 150 seismic stations operating in the San Francisco Bay Area. BART engineers are implementing a display system for this information. Later phases will include the development of improved response procedures utilizing this information. We plan to continue this collaboration to include more sophisticated information from the prototype CISN ShakeAlert system.

Seasonal Water Balance Forecasts for Drought Early Warning in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spirig, Christoph; Bhend, Jonas; Liniger, Mark

2016-04-01

Droughts severely impact Ethiopian agricultural production. Successful early warning for drought conditions in the upcoming harvest season therefore contributes to better managing food shortages arising from adverse climatic conditions. So far, however, meteorological seasonal forecasts have not been used in Ethiopia's national food security early warning system (i.e. the LEAP platform). Here we analyse the forecast quality of seasonal forecasts of total rainfall and of the meteorological water balance as a proxy for plant available water. We analyse forecast skill of June to September rainfall and water balance from dynamical seasonal forecast systems, the ECMWF System4 and EC-EARTH global forecasting systems. Rainfall forecasts outperform forecasts assuming a stationary climate mainly in north-eastern Ethiopia - an area that is particularly vulnerable to droughts. Forecasts of the water balance index seem to be even more skilful and thus more useful than pure rainfall forecasts. The results vary though for different lead times and skill measures employed. We further explore the potential added value of dynamically downscaling the forecasts through several dynamical regional climate models made available through the EU FP7 project EUPORIAS. Preliminary results suggest that dynamically downscaled seasonal forecasts are not significantly better compared with seasonal forecasts from the global models. We conclude that seasonal forecasts of a simple climate index such as the water balance have the potential to benefit drought early warning in Ethiopia, both due to its positive predictive skill and higher usefulness than seasonal mean quantities.

An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grover-Kopec, Emily; Kawano, Mika; Klaver, Robert W.; Blumenthal, Benno; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J.

2005-01-01

Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response.Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization.The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to previous seasons and climatological averages. These resources are available at no cost to the user and are updated on a routine basis.

Analysis and design of the ultraviolet warning optical system based on interference imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wen-cong; Hu, Hui-jun; Jin, Dong-dong; Chu, Xin-bo; Shi, Yu-feng; Song, Juan; Liu, Jin-sheng; Xiao, Ting; Shao, Si-pei

2017-10-01

Ultraviolet warning technology is one of the important methods for missile warning. It provides a very effective way to detect the target for missile approaching alarm. With the development of modern technology, especially the development of information technology at high speed, the ultraviolet early warning system plays an increasingly important role. Compared to infrared warning, the ultraviolet warning has high efficiency and low false alarm rate. In the modern warfare, how to detect the threats earlier, prevent and reduce the attack of precision-guided missile has become a new challenge of missile warning technology. Because the ultraviolet warning technology has high environmental adaptability, the low false alarm rate, small volume and other advantages, in the military field applications it has been developed rapidly. For the ultraviolet warning system, the optimal working waveband is 250 nm 280 nm (Solar Blind UV) due to the strong absorption of ozone layer. According to current application demands for solar blind ultraviolet detection and warning, this paper proposes ultraviolet warning optical system based on interference imaging, which covers solar blind ultraviolet (250nm-280nm) and dual field. This structure includes a primary optical system, an ultraviolet reflector array, an ultraviolet imaging system and an ultraviolet interference imaging system. It makes use of an ultraviolet beam-splitter to achieve the separation of two optical systems. According to the detector and the corresponding application needs of two visual field of the optical system, the calculation and optical system design were completed. After the design, the MTF of the two optical system is more than 0.8@39lp/mm.A single pixel energy concentration is greater than 80%.

Design of early warning system for nuclear preparedness case study at Serpong

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farid, M. M.; Prawito, Susila, I. P.; Yuniarto, A.

2017-07-01

One effort to protect the environment from the increasing of potentially environmental radiation hazards as an impact of radiation discharge around nuclear facilities is by a continuous monitoring of the environmental radiation in real time It is important to disclose the dose rate information to public or authorities for radiological protection. In this research, we have designed a nuclear preparedness early warning system around the Serpong nuclear facility. The design is based on Arduino program, general packet radio service (GPRS) shield, and radio frequencies technology to transmit environmental radiation result of the measurement and meteorological data. Data was collected at a certain location at The Center for Informatics and Nuclear Strategic Zone Utilization BATAN Serpong. The system consistency models are defined by the quality of data and the level of radiation exposure in the deployed environment. Online users can access the website which displays the radiation dose on the environment marked on Google Map. This system is capable to issue an early warning emergency when the dose reaches three times of the background radiation exposure value, 250 nSv/hour.

Multifractality and Network Analysis of Phase Transition

PubMed Central

Li, Wei; Yang, Chunbin; Han, Jihui; Su, Zhu; Zou, Yijiang

2017-01-01

Many models and real complex systems possess critical thresholds at which the systems shift dramatically from one sate to another. The discovery of early-warnings in the vicinity of critical points are of great importance to estimate how far the systems are away from the critical states. Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) and visibility graph method have been employed to investigate the multifractal and geometrical properties of the magnetization time series of the two-dimensional Ising model. Multifractality of the time series near the critical point has been uncovered from the generalized Hurst exponents and singularity spectrum. Both long-term correlation and broad probability density function are identified to be the sources of multifractality. Heterogeneous nature of the networks constructed from magnetization time series have validated the fractal properties. Evolution of the topological quantities of the visibility graph, along with the variation of multifractality, serve as new early-warnings of phase transition. Those methods and results may provide new insights about the analysis of phase transition problems and can be used as early-warnings for a variety of complex systems. PMID:28107414

Improvements of the offshore earthquake locations in the Earthquake Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ta-Yi; Hsu, Hsin-Chih

2017-04-01

Since 2014 the Earthworm Based Earthquake Alarm Reporting (eBEAR) system has been operated and been used to issue warnings to schools. In 2015 the system started to provide warnings to the public in Taiwan via television and the cell phone. Online performance of the eBEAR system indicated that the average reporting times afforded by the system are approximately 15 and 28 s for inland and offshore earthquakes, respectively. The eBEAR system in average can provide more warning time than the current EEW system (3.2 s and 5.5 s for inland and offshore earthquakes, respectively). However, offshore earthquakes were usually located poorly because only P-wave arrivals were used in the eBEAR system. Additionally, in the early stage of the earthquake early warning system, only fewer stations are available. The poor station coverage may be a reason to answer why offshore earthquakes are difficult to locate accurately. In the Geiger's inversion procedure of earthquake location, we need to put an initial hypocenter and origin time into the location program. For the initial hypocenter, we defined some test locations on the offshore area instead of using the average of locations from triggered stations. We performed 20 programs concurrently running the Geiger's method with different pre-defined initial position to locate earthquakes. We assume that if the program with the pre-defined initial position is close to the true earthquake location, during the iteration procedure of the Geiger's method the processing time of this program should be less than others. The results show that using pre-defined locations for trial-hypocenter in the inversion procedure is able to improve the accurate of offshore earthquakes. Especially for EEW system, in the initial stage of the EEW system, only use 3 or 5 stations to locate earthquakes may lead to bad results because of poor station coverage. In this study, the pre-defined trial-locations provide a feasible way to improve the estimations of earthquake locations in EEW system.

Integrating remotely sensed fires for predicting deforestation for REDD.

PubMed

Armenteras, Dolors; Gibbes, Cerian; Anaya, Jesús A; Dávalos, Liliana M

2017-06-01

Fire is an important tool in tropical forest management, as it alters forest composition, structure, and the carbon budget. The United Nations program on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) aims to sustainably manage forests, as well as to conserve and enhance their carbon stocks. Despite the crucial role of fire management, decision-making on REDD+ interventions fails to systematically include fires. Here, we address this critical knowledge gap in two ways. First, we review REDD+ projects and programs to assess the inclusion of fires in monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems. Second, we model the relationship between fire and forest for a pilot site in Colombia using near-real-time (NRT) fire monitoring data derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The literature review revealed fire remains to be incorporated as a key component of MRV systems. Spatially explicit modeling of land use change showed the probability of deforestation declined sharply with increasing distance to the nearest fire the preceding year (multi-year model area under the curve [AUC] 0.82). Deforestation predictions based on the model performed better than the official REDD early-warning system. The model AUC for 2013 and 2014 was 0.81, compared to 0.52 for the early-warning system in 2013 and 0.68 in 2014. This demonstrates NRT fire monitoring is a powerful tool to predict sites of forest deforestation. Applying new, publicly available, and open-access NRT fire data should be an essential element of early-warning systems to detect and prevent deforestation. Our results provide tools for improving both the current MRV systems, and the deforestation early-warning system in Colombia. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Recruitment Early Warning System. Phase II. Volume 1. Research and Development of the Recruitment EWS (Early Warning System).

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-09-30

DRIVE. RESTON, VA 22091 NATO (703) 476-5500 +’ h, .*Je/_ft, MEND " " E I: v zRm MV WK= I 8 6D.’"-. by L Peter Greenston, Lawrence Goldberg, Sigurd... Lawrence Goldberg, Sigurd Hermansen, and Sherry Andrews September 1985 .’. This report was prepared under the Navy Manpower R&D Program of the Office of...February for seniors, and in the summer for graduates. The seasonal pattern is apparently even more differentiated in the Marine Corps. - 5.~ &,.p

Operational Tsunami Modelling with TsunAWI for the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System: Recent Developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakowsky, N.; Harig, S.; Androsov, A.; Fuchs, A.; Immerz, A.; Schröter, J.; Hiller, W.

2012-04-01

Starting in 2005, the GITEWS project (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) established from scratch a fully operational tsunami warning system at BMKG in Jakarta. Numerical simulations of prototypic tsunami scenarios play a decisive role in a priori risk assessment for coastal regions and in the early warning process itself. Repositories with currently 3470 regional tsunami scenarios for GITEWS and 1780 Indian Ocean wide scenarios in support of Indonesia as a Regional Tsunami Service Provider (RTSP) were computed with the non-linear shallow water modell TsunAWI. It is based on a finite element discretisation, employs unstructured grids with high resolution along the coast and includes inundation. This contribution gives an overview on the model itself, the enhancement of the model physics, and the experiences gained during the process of establishing an operational code suited for thousands of model runs. Technical aspects like computation time, disk space needed for each scenario in the repository, or post processing techniques have a much larger impact than they had in the beginning when TsunAWI started as a research code. Of course, careful testing on artificial benchmarks and real events remains essential, but furthermore, quality control for the large number of scenarios becomes an important issue.

Developing and testing an Early Warning System for Non Indigenous Species and Ballast Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magaletti, Erika; Garaventa, Francesca; David, Matej; Castriota, Luca; Kraus, Romina; Luna, Gian Marco; Silvestri, Cecilia; Forte, Cosmo; Bastianini, Mauro; Falautano, Manuela; Maggio, Teresa; Rak, Giulietta; Gollasch, Stephan

2018-03-01

This paper describes the methodological approach used for the development of an Early Warning System (EWS) for Non Indigenous Species (NIS) and ballast water management and summarizes the results obtained. The specific goals of the EWS are firstly to warn vessels to prevent loading of ballast water when critical biological conditions occur in ports and surrounding areas i.e. mass development or blooms of Harmful Aquatic Organisms and Pathogens (HAOP). Secondly, to warn environmental and health authorities when NIS or pathogens are present in ports or surrounding areas to enable an early response and an implementation of remediation measures. The EWS is designed to be used for implementing various parallel obligations, by taking into consideration different legal scopes, associated information and decision-making needs. The EWS was elaborated, tested in the Adriatic Sea and illustrated by two case studies. Although the EWS was developed with an Adriatic Sea focus, it is presented in a format so that it may be used as a model when establishing similar systems in other locations. The role of the various actors is discussed and recommendations on further developments of the EWS are presented. It was concluded that the EWS is a suitable tool to reduce the spread of potentially harmful and ballast water mediated species.

MyEEW: A Smartphone App for the ShakeAlert System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauss, J. A.; Allen, S.; Allen, R. M.; Hellweg, M.

2015-12-01

Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) is a system that can provide a few to tens of seconds warning prior to ground shaking at a user's location. The goal and purpose of such a system is to reduce, or minimize, the damage, costs, and casualties resulting from an earthquake. A demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) is undergoing testing in the United States by the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, Caltech, ETH Zurich, University of Washington, the USGS, and beta users in California and the Pacific Northwest. The UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory has created a smartphone app called MyEEW, which interfaces with the ShakeAlert system to deliver early warnings to individual users. Many critical facilities (transportation, police, and fire) have control rooms, which could run a centralized interface, but our ShakeAlert Beta Testers have also expressed their need for mobile options. This app augments the basic ShakeAlert Java desktop applet by allowing workers off-site (or merely out of hearing range) to be informed of coming hazards. MyEEW receives information from the ShakeAlert system to provide users with real-time information about shaking that is about to happen at their individual location. It includes a map, timer, and earthquake information similar to the Java desktop User Display. The app will also feature educational material to help users craft their own response and resiliency strategies. The app will be open to UC Berkeley Earthquake Research Affiliates members for testing in the near future.

Knowledge of stroke risk factors and early warning signs of stroke among students enrolled in allied health programs: a pilot study.

PubMed

Milner, Abby; Lewis, William J; Ellis, Charles

2008-01-01

The inclusion of stroke education modules early in medical school curricula has resulted in improved stroke knowledge in graduate physicians. The success of these programs suggests that allied health professions programs should also consider strategies to improve stroke knowledge in students preparing for allied health careers that also require knowledge of stroke risk factors and early warning signs. Currently, little is known about stroke knowledge in students enrolled in allied health professions programs. 208 first- and second-year students enrolled in allied health programs completed a survey of stroke risk factors and early warning signs of stroke. Risk factor knowledge - 99% identified smoking as a risk factor; 67% identified diabetes; 93% identified high cholesterol; 89% identified age; and 92% identified physical inactivity. Less than 50% of the students identified all 5 risk factors. There were no differences between first- and second-year students in risk factor knowledge. Early warning signs and first response knowledge - 89% recognized sudden confusion or trouble speaking; 94% recognized sudden facial, arm, or leg weakness; 65% recognized sudden vision loss; 82% recognized sudden trouble walking; and 73% recognized sudden headache as early warning signs of stroke. Eighty-one percent recognized calling 9-1-1 as the appropriate first action. However, only 25% recognized all five early warning signs and only 20% recognized all five early warning signs and would call 9-1-1 as the first action. There were differences between first- and second-year students in recognizing 3 of 5 early warning signs and appropriate first action to call 9-1-1. Most students recognized individual stroke risk factors and early warning signs but few recognized multiple risk factors and early warning signs of stroke.

Recommendations to harmonize European early warning dosimetry network systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dombrowski, H.; Bleher, M.; De Cort, M.; Dabrowski, R.; Neumaier, S.; Stöhlker, U.

2017-12-01

After the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986, followed by the Fukushima Nuclear power plant accident 25 years later, it became obvious that real-time information is required to quickly gain radiological information. As a consequence, the European countries established early warning network systems with the aim to provide an immediate warning in case of a major radiological emergency, to supply reliable information on area dose rates, contamination levels, radioactivity concentrations in air and finally to assess public exposure. This is relevant for governmental decisions on intervention measures in an emergency situation. Since different methods are used by national environmental monitoring systems to measure area dose rate values and activity concentrations, there are significant differences in the results provided by different countries. Because European and neighboring countries report area dose rate data to a central data base operated on behalf of the European Commission, the comparability of the data is crucial for its meaningful interpretation, especially in the case of a nuclear accident with transboundary implications. Only by harmonizing measuring methods and data evaluation, is the comparability of the dose rate data ensured. This publication concentrates on technical requirements and methods with the goal to effectively harmonize area dose rate monitoring data provided by automatic early warning network systems. The requirements and procedures laid down in this publication are based on studies within the MetroERM project, taking into account realistic technical approaches and tested procedures.

Early Warning Signals of Social Transformation: A Case Study from the US Southwest.

PubMed

Spielmann, Katherine A; Peeples, Matthew A; Glowacki, Donna M; Dugmore, Andrew

2016-01-01

Recent research in ecology suggests that generic indicators, referred to as early warning signals (EWS), may occur before significant transformations, both critical and non-critical, in complex systems. Up to this point, research on EWS has largely focused on simple models and controlled experiments in ecology and climate science. When humans are considered in these arenas they are invariably seen as external sources of disturbance or management. In this article we explore ways to include societal components of socio-ecological systems directly in EWS analysis. Given the growing archaeological literature on 'collapses,' or transformations, in social systems, we investigate whether any early warning signals are apparent in the archaeological records of the build-up to two contemporaneous cases of social transformation in the prehistoric US Southwest, Mesa Verde and Zuni. The social transformations in these two cases differ in scope and severity, thus allowing us to explore the contexts under which warning signals may (or may not) emerge. In both cases our results show increasing variance in settlement size before the transformation, but increasing variance in social institutions only before the critical transformation in Mesa Verde. In the Zuni case, social institutions appear to have managed the process of significant social change. We conclude that variance is of broad relevance in anticipating social change, and the capacity of social institutions to mitigate transformation is critical to consider in EWS research on socio-ecological systems.

Enhancing Community Based Early Warning Systems in Nepal with Flood Forecasting Using Local and Global Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dugar, Sumit; Smith, Paul; Parajuli, Binod; Khanal, Sonu; Brown, Sarah; Gautam, Dilip; Bhandari, Dinanath; Gurung, Gehendra; Shakya, Puja; Kharbuja, RamGopal; Uprety, Madhab

2017-04-01

Operationalising effective Flood Early Warning Systems (EWS) in developing countries like Nepal poses numerous challenges, with complex topography and geology, sparse network of river and rainfall gauging stations and diverse socio-economic conditions. Despite these challenges, simple real-time monitoring based EWSs have been in place for the past decade. A key constraint of these simple systems is the very limited lead time for response - as little as 2-3 hours, especially for rivers originating from steep mountainous catchments. Efforts to increase lead time for early warning are focusing on imbedding forecasts into the existing early warning systems. In 2016, the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) piloted an operational Probabilistic Flood Forecasting Model in major river basins across Nepal. This comprised a low data approach to forecast water levels, developed jointly through a research/practitioner partnership with Lancaster University and WaterNumbers (UK) and the International NGO Practical Action. Using Data-Based Mechanistic Modelling (DBM) techniques, the model assimilated rainfall and water levels to generate localised hourly flood predictions, which are presented as probabilistic forecasts, increasing lead times from 2-3 hours to 7-8 hours. The Nepal DHM has simultaneously started utilizing forecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GLoFAS) that provides streamflow predictions at the global scale based upon distributed hydrological simulations using numerical ensemble weather forecasts from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The aforementioned global and local models have already affected the approach to early warning in Nepal, being operational during the 2016 monsoon in the West Rapti basin in Western Nepal. On 24 July 2016, GLoFAS hydrological forecasts for the West Rapti indicated a sharp rise in river discharge above 1500 m3/sec (equivalent to the river warning level at 5 meters) with 53% probability of exceeding the Medium Level Alert in two days. Rainfall stations upstream of the West Rapti catchment recorded heavy rainfall on 26 July, and localized forecasts from the probabilistic model at 8 am suggested that the water level would cross a pre-determined warning level in the next 3 hours. The Flood Forecasting Section at DHM issued a flood advisory, and disseminated SMS flood alerts to more than 13,000 at-risk people residing along the floodplains. Water levels crossed the danger threshold (5.4 meters) at 11 am, peaking at 8.15 meters at 10 pm. Extension of the warning lead time from probabilistic forecasts was significant in minimising the risk to lives and livelihoods as communities gained extra time to prepare, evacuate and respond. Likewise, longer timescale forecasts from GLoFAS could be potentially linked with no-regret early actions leading to improved preparedness and emergency response. These forecasting tools have contributed to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of existing community based systems, increasing the lead time for response. Nevertheless, extensive work is required on appropriate ways to interpret and disseminate probabilistic forecasts having longer (2-14 days) and shorter (3-5 hours) time horizon for operational deployment as there are numerous uncertainties associated with predictions.

False alarms: How early warning signals falsely predict abrupt sea ice loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, Till J. W.; Eisenman, Ian

2016-04-01

Uncovering universal early warning signals for critical transitions has become a coveted goal in diverse scientific disciplines, ranging from climate science to financial mathematics. There has been a flurry of recent research proposing such signals, with increasing autocorrelation and increasing variance being among the most widely discussed candidates. A number of studies have suggested that increasing autocorrelation alone may suffice to signal an impending transition, although some others have questioned this. Here we consider variance and autocorrelation in the context of sea ice loss in an idealized model of the global climate system. The model features no bifurcation, nor increased rate of retreat, as the ice disappears. Nonetheless, the autocorrelation of summer sea ice area is found to increase in a global warming scenario. The variance, by contrast, decreases. A simple physical mechanism is proposed to explain the occurrence of increasing autocorrelation but not variance when there is no approaching bifurcation. Additionally, a similar mechanism is shown to allow an increase in both indicators with no physically attainable bifurcation. This implies that relying on autocorrelation and variance as early warning signals can raise false alarms in the climate system, warning of "tipping points" that are not actually there.

Design and field test equipment of river water level detection based on ultrasonic sensor and SMS gateway as flood early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulistyowati, Riny; Sujono, Hari Agus; Musthofa, Ahmad Khamdi

2017-06-01

Due to the high rainfall, flood often occurs in some regions, especially in the area adjacent to the river banks that led to the idea to make the river water level detection system as a flood early warning. Several researches have produced flood detection equipment based on ultrasonic sensors and android as flood early warning system. This paper reported the results of a field test detection equipment to measure the river water level of the Bengawansolo River that was conducted in three villages in the district of Bungah, Dukun, and Manyar in Gresik regency. Tests were conducted simultaneously for 21 hours during heavy rainfall. The test results demonstrated the accuracy of the equipment of 97.28% for all categories of observation. The application of AFD (Android Flood Detection) via android smartphone demonstrated its precision in conveying the information of water level as represented by the status of SAFE, STAND, WARNING, and DANGER. Some charts presented from the analysis of data was derived from the data acquisition time of testing that can be used as an evaluation of flooding at some points prone to flood.

Net Warrior D10 Technology Report: Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) and Data Link Nodes

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-04-01

ADO ) approach to implementing Network Centric Warfare (NCW) through ‘learning by doing’. Net Warrior was conceived to address, through... frameworks are able to satisfy design needs of applications to produce stable mission and net centric systems. NW-D10 employed a SOA approach to...UNCLASSIFIED Net Warrior D10 Technology Report: Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) and Data Link Nodes Derek Dominish

Demands on Intranets — Viable System Model as a Foundation for Intranet Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amcoff Nyström, Christina

2006-06-01

The number of Intranets increases in organizations but their potential to support viability is not fully exploited. The cybernetic model, the Viable System Model, has not been connected to the Intranet concept before. Characteristics of the VSM, such as highlighting the importance of production, monitoring of production units through Early Warning Systems, autonomy and empowerment, are used as patterns and a base for de-signing essential parts and/or functions of an Intranet. The result is a brief description of functions vital to the operational parts of organizations. Examples are Early Warning Systems, control systems, "gate-keepers," amplifying and damping information to and from the organization and "agents" supporting search abilities on an Intranet.

[System construction of early warning for ecological security at cultural and natural heritage mixed sites and its application: a case study of Wuyishan Scenery District].

PubMed

You, Wei-Bin; He, Dong-Jin; Qin, De-Hua; Ji, Zhi-Rong; Wu, Li-Yun; Yu, Jian-An; Chen, Bing-Rong; Tan, Yong

2014-05-01

This paper proposed a new concept of ecological security for protection by a comprehensive analysis of the contents and standards of world heritage sites. A frame concept model named "Pressure-State-Control" for early warning of ecological security at world heritage mixed sites was constructed and evaluation indicators of this frame were also selected. Wuyishan Scenery District was chosen for a case study, which has been severely disturbed by natural and artificial factors. Based on the frame model of "Pressure-State-Control" and by employing extension analysis, the matter-element model was established to assess the ecological security status of this cultural and natural world heritage mixed site. The results showed that the accuracy of ecological security early warning reached 84%. Early warning rank was I level (no alert status) in 1997 and 2009, but that in 2009 had a higher possibility to convert into II level. Likewise, the early-warning indices of sensitive ranks were different between 1997 and 2009. Population density, population growth rate, area index for tea garden, cultivated land owned per capita, level of drought, and investment for ecological and environmental construction were the main limiting factors to hinder the development of ecological security from 2009 to future. In general, the status of Wuyishan Scenery District ecological security was relatively good and considered as no alert level, while risk conditions also existed in terms of a few early-warning indicators. We still need to pay more attention to serious alert indicators and adopt effective prevention and control measures to maintain a good ecological security status of this heritage site.

Building regional early flood warning systems by AI techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, F. J.; Chang, L. C.; Amin, M. Z. B. M.

2017-12-01

Building early flood warning system is essential for the protection of the residents against flood hazards and make actions to mitigate the losses. This study implements AI technology for forecasting multi-step-ahead regional flood inundation maps during storm events. The methodology includes three major schemes: (1) configuring the self-organizing map (SOM) to categorize a large number of regional inundation maps into a meaningful topology; (2) building dynamic neural networks to forecast multi-step-ahead average inundated depths (AID); and (3) adjusting the weights of the selected neuron in the constructed SOM based on the forecasted AID to obtain real-time regional inundation maps. The proposed models are trained, and tested based on a large number of inundation data sets collected in regions with the most frequent and serious flooding in the river basin. The results appear that the SOM topological relationships between individual neurons and their neighbouring neurons are visible and clearly distinguishable, and the hybrid model can continuously provide multistep-ahead visible regional inundation maps with high resolution during storm events, which have relatively small RMSE values and high R2 as compared with numerical simulation data sets. The computing time is only few seconds, and thereby leads to real-time regional flood inundation forecasting and make early flood inundation warning system. We demonstrate that the proposed hybrid ANN-based model has a robust and reliable predictive ability and can be used for early warning to mitigate flood disasters.

A Mathematical Framework for Critical Transitions: Normal Forms, Variance and Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuehn, Christian

2013-06-01

Critical transitions occur in a wide variety of applications including mathematical biology, climate change, human physiology and economics. Therefore it is highly desirable to find early-warning signs. We show that it is possible to classify critical transitions by using bifurcation theory and normal forms in the singular limit. Based on this elementary classification, we analyze stochastic fluctuations and calculate scaling laws of the variance of stochastic sample paths near critical transitions for fast-subsystem bifurcations up to codimension two. The theory is applied to several models: the Stommel-Cessi box model for the thermohaline circulation from geoscience, an epidemic-spreading model on an adaptive network, an activator-inhibitor switch from systems biology, a predator-prey system from ecology and to the Euler buckling problem from classical mechanics. For the Stommel-Cessi model we compare different detrending techniques to calculate early-warning signs. In the epidemics model we show that link densities could be better variables for prediction than population densities. The activator-inhibitor switch demonstrates effects in three time-scale systems and points out that excitable cells and molecular units have information for subthreshold prediction. In the predator-prey model explosive population growth near a codimension-two bifurcation is investigated and we show that early-warnings from normal forms can be misleading in this context. In the biomechanical model we demonstrate that early-warning signs for buckling depend crucially on the control strategy near the instability which illustrates the effect of multiplicative noise.

Research on Early Warning of Chinese Food Safety Based on Social Physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Yonghuan; Niu, Wenyuan; Li, Qianqian

Based on social physics, this paper designs the index system of food safety, builds early warning model of food safety, calculates the degree of food safety, and assesses the state of early warning of 2007 in China. The result shows the degree of food safety is near 0.7 in securer state, belonging to slight emergency. It is much lower in eastern areas of developed regions, belonging to insecure state in the mass. That the food safety is ensured in major grain producing areas, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia and Xinjiang is the prerequisite of realizing the food safety of China. The result also shows four significant indices, grain production capacity, grain circulation order, grain demand and grain supply, which are important indicatio to control food safety.

Exploring the feasibility of a nationwide earthquake early warning system in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Picozzi, M.; Zollo, A.; Brondi, P.; Colombelli, S.; Elia, L.; Martino, C.

2015-04-01

When accompanied by appropriate training and preparedness of a population, Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) are effective and viable tools for the real-time reduction of societal exposure to seismic events in metropolitan areas. The Italian Accelerometric Network, RAN, which consists of about 500 stations installed over all the active seismic zones, as well as many cities and strategic infrastructures in Italy, has the potential to serve as a nationwide early warning system. In this work, we present a feasibility study for a nationwide EEWS in Italy obtained by the integration of the RAN and the software platform PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem (PRESTo). The performance of the RAN-PRESTo EEWS is first assessed by testing it on real strong motion recordings of 40 of the largest earthquakes that have occurred during the last 10 years in Italy. Furthermore, we extend the analysis to regions that did not experience earthquakes by considering a nationwide grid of synthetic sources capable of generating Gutenberg-Richter sequences corresponding to the one adopted by the seismic hazard map of the Italian territory. Our results indicate that the RAN-PRESTo EEWS could theoretically provide for higher seismic hazard areas reliable alert messages within about 5 to 10 s and maximum lead times of about 25 s. In case of large events (M > 6.5), this amount of lead time would be sufficient for taking basic protective measures (e.g., duck and cover, move away from windows or equipment) in tens to hundreds of municipalities affected by large ground shaking.

Application of the Risk-Based Early Warning Method in a Fracture-Karst Water Source, North China.

PubMed

Guo, Yongli; Wu, Qing; Li, Changsuo; Zhao, Zhenhua; Sun, Bin; He, Shiyi; Jiang, Guanghui; Zhai, Yuanzheng; Guo, Fang

2018-03-01

  The paper proposes a risk-based early warning considering characteristics of fracture-karst aquifer in North China and applied it in a super-large fracture-karst water source. Groundwater vulnerability, types of land use, water abundance, transmissivity and spatial temporal variation of groundwater quality were chosen as indexes of the method. Weights of factors were obtained by using AHP method based on relative importance of factors, maps of factors were zoned by GIS, early warning map was conducted based on extension theory with the help of GIS, ENVI+IDL. The early warning map fused five factors very well, serious and tremendous warning areas are mainly located in northwest and east with high or relatively high transmissivity and groundwater pollutant loading, and obviously deteriorated or deteriorated trend of petroleum. The early warning map warns people where more attention should be paid, and the paper guides decision making to take appropriate protection actions in different warning levels areas.

Flexible Early Warning Systems with Workflows and Decision Tables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riedel, F.; Chaves, F.; Zeiner, H.

2012-04-01

An essential part of early warning systems and systems for crisis management are decision support systems that facilitate communication and collaboration. Often official policies specify how different organizations collaborate and what information is communicated to whom. For early warning systems it is crucial that information is exchanged dynamically in a timely manner and all participants get exactly the information they need to fulfil their role in the crisis management process. Information technology obviously lends itself to automate parts of the process. We have experienced however that in current operational systems the information logistics processes are hard-coded, even though they are subject to change. In addition, systems are tailored to the policies and requirements of a certain organization and changes can require major software refactoring. We seek to develop a system that can be deployed and adapted to multiple organizations with different dynamic runtime policies. A major requirement for such a system is that changes can be applied locally without affecting larger parts of the system. In addition to the flexibility regarding changes in policies and processes, the system needs to be able to evolve; when new information sources become available, it should be possible to integrate and use these in the decision process. In general, this kind of flexibility comes with a significant increase in complexity. This implies that only IT professionals can maintain a system that can be reconfigured and adapted; end-users are unable to utilise the provided flexibility. In the business world similar problems arise and previous work suggested using business process management systems (BPMS) or workflow management systems (WfMS) to guide and automate early warning processes or crisis management plans. However, the usability and flexibility of current WfMS are limited, because current notations and user interfaces are still not suitable for end-users, and workflows are usually only suited for rigid processes. We show how improvements can be achieved by using decision tables and rule-based adaptive workflows. Decision tables have been shown to be an intuitive tool that can be used by domain experts to express rule sets that can be interpreted automatically at runtime. Adaptive workflows use a rule-based approach to increase the flexibility of workflows by providing mechanisms to adapt workflows based on context changes, human intervention and availability of services. The combination of workflows, decision tables and rule-based adaption creates a framework that opens up new possibilities for flexible and adaptable workflows, especially, for use in early warning and crisis management systems.

Probabilistic and Evolutionary Early Warning System: concepts, performances, and case-studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zollo, A.; Emolo, A.; Colombelli, S.; Elia, L.; Festa, G.; Martino, C.; Picozzi, M.

2013-12-01

PRESTo (PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem) is a software platform for Earthquake Early Warning that integrates algorithms for real-time earthquake location, magnitude estimation and damage assessment into a highly configurable and easily portable package. In its regional configuration, the software processes, in real-time, the 3-component acceleration data streams coming from seismic stations, for P-waves arrival detection and, in the case a quite large event is occurring, can promptly performs event detection and location, magnitude estimation and peak ground-motion prediction at target sites. The regional approach has been integrated with a threshold-based early warning method that allows, in the very first seconds after a moderate-to-large earthquake, to identify the most Probable Damaged Zone starting from the real-time measurement at near-source stations located at increasing distances from the earthquake epicenter, of the peak displacement (Pd) and predominant period of P-waves (τc), over a few-second long window after the P-wave arrival. Thus, each recording site independently provides an evolutionary alert level, according to the Pd and τc it measured, through a decisional table. Since 2009, PRESTo has been under continuous real-time testing using data streaming from the Iripinia Seismic Network (Southern Italy) and has produced a bulletin of some hundreds low magnitude events, including all the M≥2.5 earthquakes occurred in that period in Irpinia. Recently, PRESTo has been also implemented at the accelerometric network and broad-band networks in South Korea and in Romania, and off-line tested in Iberian Peninsula, in Turkey, in Israel, and in Japan. The feasibility of an Early Warning System at national scale, is currently under testing by studying the performances of the PRESTo platform for the Italian Accelerometric Network. Moreover, PRESTo is under experimentation in order to provide alert in a high-school located in the neighborhood of Naples at about 100 km from the Irpinia region.

An early warning system for marine storm hazard mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vousdoukas, M. I.; Almeida, L. P.; Pacheco, A.; Ferreira, O.

2012-04-01

The present contribution presents efforts towards the development of an operational Early Warning System for storm hazard prediction and mitigation. The system consists of a calibrated nested-model train which consists of specially calibrated Wave Watch III, SWAN and XBeach models. The numerical simulations provide daily forecasts of the hydrodynamic conditions, morphological change and overtopping risk at the area of interest. The model predictions are processed by a 'translation' module which is based on site-specific Storm Impact Indicators (SIIs) (Ciavola et al., 2011, Storm impacts along European coastlines. Part 2: lessons learned from the MICORE project, Environmental Science & Policy, Vol 14), and warnings are issued when pre-defined threshold values are exceeded. For the present site the selected SIIs were (i) the maximum wave run-up height during the simulations; and (ii) the dune-foot horizontal retreat at the end of the simulations. Both SIIs and pre-defined thresholds were carefully selected on the grounds of existing experience and field data. Four risk levels were considered, each associated with an intervention approach, recommended to the responsible coastal protection authority. Regular updating of the topography/bathymetry is critical for the performance of the storm impact forecasting, especially when there are significant morphological changes. The system can be extended to other critical problems, like implications of global warming and adaptive management strategies, while the approach presently followed, from model calibration to the early warning system for storm hazard mitigation, can be applied to other sites worldwide, with minor adaptations.

GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schöne, T.; Pandoe, W.; Mudita, I.; Roemer, S.; Illigner, J.; Zech, C.; Galas, R.

2011-03-01

On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements. The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) (Rudloff et al., 2009) combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP) measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information. The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

Heatwave Early Warning Systems and Adaptation Advice to Reduce Human Health Consequences of Heatwaves

PubMed Central

Lowe, Dianne; Ebi, Kristie L.; Forsberg, Bertil

2011-01-01

Introduction: With climate change, there has been an increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of heatwave events. In response to the devastating mortality and morbidity of recent heatwave events, many countries have introduced heatwave early warning systems (HEWS). HEWS are designed to reduce the avoidable human health consequences of heatwaves through timely notification of prevention measures to vulnerable populations. Objective: To identify the key characteristics of HEWS in European countries to help inform modification of current, and development of, new systems and plans. Methods: We searched the internet to identify HEWS policy or government documents for 33 European countries and requested information from relevant organizations. We translated the HEWS documents and extracted details on the trigger indicators, thresholds for action, notification strategies, message intermediaries, communication and dissemination strategies, prevention strategies recommended and specified target audiences. Findings and Conclusions: Twelve European countries have HEWS. Although there are many similarities among the HEWS, there also are differences in key characteristics that could inform improvements in heatwave early warning plans. PMID:22408593

Operational Earthquake Forecasting and Earthquake Early Warning: The Challenges of Introducing Scientific Innovations for Public Safety

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goltz, J. D.

2016-12-01

Although variants of both earthquake early warning and short-term operational earthquake forecasting systems have been implemented or are now being implemented in some regions and nations, they have been slow to gain acceptance within the disciplines that produced them as well as among those for whom they were intended to assist. To accelerate the development and implementation of these technologies will require the cooperation and collaboration of multiple disciplines, some inside and others outside of academia. Seismologists, social scientists, emergency managers, elected officials and key opinion leaders from the media and public must be the participants in this process. Representatives of these groups come from both inside and outside of academia and represent very different organizational cultures, backgrounds and expectations for these systems, sometimes leading to serious disagreements and impediments to further development and implementation. This presentation will focus on examples of the emergence of earthquake early warning and operational earthquake forecasting systems in California, Japan and other regions and document the challenges confronted in the ongoing effort to improve seismic safety.

Surveillance of dengue fever virus: a review of epidemiological models and early warning systems.

PubMed

Racloz, Vanessa; Ramsey, Rebecca; Tong, Shilu; Hu, Wenbiao

2012-01-01

Dengue fever affects over a 100 million people annually hence is one of the world's most important vector-borne diseases. The transmission area of this disease continues to expand due to many direct and indirect factors linked to urban sprawl, increased travel and global warming. Current preventative measures include mosquito control programs, yet due to the complex nature of the disease and the increased importation risk along with the lack of efficient prophylactic measures, successful disease control and elimination is not realistic in the foreseeable future. Epidemiological models attempt to predict future outbreaks using information on the risk factors of the disease. Through a systematic literature review, this paper aims at analyzing the different modeling methods and their outputs in terms of acting as an early warning system. We found that many previous studies have not sufficiently accounted for the spatio-temporal features of the disease in the modeling process. Yet with advances in technology, the ability to incorporate such information as well as the socio-environmental aspect allowed for its use as an early warning system, albeit limited geographically to a local scale.

MUSIC algorithm DoA estimation for cooperative node location in mobile ad hoc networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warty, Chirag; Yu, Richard Wai; ElMahgoub, Khaled; Spinsante, Susanna

In recent years the technological development has encouraged several applications based on distributed communications network without any fixed infrastructure. The problem of providing a collaborative early warning system for multiple mobile nodes against a fast moving object. The solution is provided subject to system level constraints: motion of nodes, antenna sensitivity and Doppler effect at 2.4 GHz and 5.8 GHz. This approach consists of three stages. The first phase consists of detecting the incoming object using a highly directive two element antenna at 5.0 GHz band. The second phase consists of broadcasting the warning message using a low directivity broad antenna beam using 2× 2 antenna array which then in third phase will be detected by receiving nodes by using direction of arrival (DOA) estimation technique. The DOA estimation technique is used to estimate the range and bearing of the incoming nodes. The position of fast arriving object can be estimated using the MUSIC algorithm for warning beam DOA estimation. This paper is mainly intended to demonstrate the feasibility of early detection and warning system using a collaborative node to node communication links. The simulation is performed to show the behavior of detecting and broadcasting antennas as well as performance of the detection algorithm. The idea can be further expanded to implement commercial grade detection and warning system

Coupling a regional warning system to a semantic engine on online news for enhancing landslide prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battistini, Alessandro; Rosi, Ascanio; Segoni, Samuele; Catani, Filippo; Casagli, Nicola

2017-04-01

Landslide inventories are basic data for large scale landslide modelling, e.g. they are needed to calibrate and validate rainfall thresholds, physically based models and early warning systems. The setting up of landslide inventories with traditional methods (e.g. remote sensing, field surveys and manual retrieval of data from technical reports and local newspapers) is time consuming. The objective of this work is to automatically set up a landslide inventory using a state-of-the art semantic engine based on data mining on online news (Battistini et al., 2013) and to evaluate if the automatically generated inventory can be used to validate a regional scale landslide warning system based on rainfall-thresholds. The semantic engine scanned internet news in real time in a 50 months test period. At the end of the process, an inventory of approximately 900 landslides was set up for the Tuscany region (23,000 km2, Italy). The inventory was compared with the outputs of the regional landslide early warning system based on rainfall thresholds, and a good correspondence was found: e.g. 84% of the events reported in the news is correctly identified by the model. In addition, the cases of not correspondence were forwarded to the rainfall threshold developers, which used these inputs to update some of the thresholds. On the basis of the results obtained, we conclude that automatic validation of landslide models using geolocalized landslide events feedback is possible. The source of data for validation can be obtained directly from the internet channel using an appropriate semantic engine. We also automated the validation procedure, which is based on a comparison between forecasts and reported events. We verified that our approach can be automatically used for a near real time validation of the warning system and for a semi-automatic update of the rainfall thresholds, which could lead to an improvement of the forecasting effectiveness of the warning system. In the near future, the proposed procedure could operate in continuous time and could allow for a periodic update of landslide hazard models and landslide early warning systems with minimum human intervention. References: Battistini, A., Segoni, S., Manzo, G., Catani, F., Casagli, N. (2013). Web data mining for automatic inventory of geohazards at national scale. Applied Geography, 43, 147-158.

Early warning system for financially distressed hospitals via data mining application.

PubMed

Koyuncugil, Ali Serhan; Ozgulbas, Nermin

2012-08-01

The aim of this study is to develop a Financial Early Warning System (FEWS) for hospitals by using data mining. A data mining method, Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detector (CHAID) decision tree algorithm, was used in the study for financial profiling and developing FEWS. The study was conducted in Turkish Ministry of Health's public hospitals which were in financial distress and in need of urgent solutions for financial issues. 839 hospitals were covered and financial data of the year 2008 was obtained from Ministry of Health. As a result of the study, it was determined that 28 hospitals (3.34%) had good financial performance, and 811 hospitals (96.66%) had poor financial performance. According to FEWS, the covered hospitals were categorized into 11 different financial risk profiles, and it was found that 6 variables affected financial risk of hospitals. According to the profiles of hospitals in financial distress, one early warning signal was detected and financial road map was developed for risk mitigation.

Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil

PubMed Central

Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio AS; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

2016-01-01

Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11285.001 PMID:26910315

The Global Drought Information System - A Decision Support Tool with Global Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heim, R. R.; Brewer, M.

2012-12-01

Drought is a natural hazard which can cause famine in developing countries and severe economic hardship in developed countries. Given current concerns with the increasing frequency and magnitude of droughts in many regions of the world, especially in the light of expected climate change, drought monitoring and dissemination of early warning information in a timely fashion on a global scale is a critical concern as an important adaptation and mitigation strategy. While a number of nations, and a few continental-scale activities have developed drought information system activities, a global drought early warning system (GDEWS) remains elusive, despite the benefits highlighted by ministers to the Global Earth Observation System of System in 2008. In an effort to begin a process of drought monitoring with international collaboration, the National Integrated Drought Information System's (NIDIS) U.S. Drought Portal, a web-based information system created to address drought services and early warning in the United States, including drought monitoring, forecasting, impacts, mitigation, research, and education, volunteered to develop a prototype Global Drought Monitoring Portal (GDMP). Through integration of data and information at the global level, and with four continental-level partners, the GDMP has proven successful as a tool to monitor drought around the globe. At a recent meeting between NIDIS, the World Meteorological Organization, and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems, it was recommended that the GDMP form the basis for a Global Drought Information System (GDIS). Currently, GDIS activities are focused around incorporating additional drought monitoring information, especially from those areas without regional or continental-scale input, and incorporating drought-specific climate forecast information from the World Climate Research Programme. Additional GDIS pilot activities are underway with an emphasis on information and decision making, and how to effectively provide drought early warning. This talk will provide an update on the status of GDIS and its role in international drought monitoring.

The Global Drought Information System - A Decision Support Tool with Global Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arndt, D. S.; Brewer, M.; Heim, R. R., Jr.

2014-12-01

Drought is a natural hazard which can cause famine in developing countries and severe economic hardship in developed countries. Given current concerns with the increasing frequency and magnitude of droughts in many regions of the world, especially in the light of expected climate change, drought monitoring and dissemination of early warning information in a timely fashion on a global scale is a critical concern as an important adaptation and mitigation strategy. While a number of nations, and a few continental-scale activities have developed drought information system activities, a global drought early warning system (GDEWS) remains elusive, despite the benefits highlighted by ministers to the Global Earth Observation System of System in 2008. In an effort to begin a process of drought monitoring with international collaboration, the National Integrated Drought Information System's (NIDIS) U.S. Drought Portal, a web-based information system created to address drought services and early warning in the United States, including drought monitoring, forecasting, impacts, mitigation, research, and education, volunteered to develop a prototype Global Drought Monitoring Portal (GDMP). Through integration of data and information at the global level, and with four continental-level partners, the GDMP has proven successful as a tool to monitor drought around the globe. At a past meeting between NIDIS, the World Meteorological Organization, and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems, it was recommended that the GDMP form the basis for a Global Drought Information System (GDIS). Currently, GDIS activities are focused around providing operational global drought monitoring products and assessments, incorporating additional drought monitoring information, especially from those areas without regional or continental-scale input, and incorporating drought-specific climate forecast information from the World Climate Research Programme. Additional GDIS pilot activities are underway with an emphasis on information and decision making, and how to effectively provide drought early warning. This talk will provide an update on the status of GDIS and its role in international drought monitoring.

Assessing earthquake early warning using sparse networks in developing countries: Case study of the Kyrgyz Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parolai, Stefano; Boxberger, Tobias; Pilz, Marco; Fleming, Kevin; Haas, Michael; Pittore, Massimiliano; Petrovic, Bojana; Moldobekov, Bolot; Zubovich, Alexander; Lauterjung, Joern

2017-09-01

The first real-time digital strong-motion network in Central Asia has been installed in the Kyrgyz Republic since 2014. Although this network consists of only 19 strong-motion stations, they are located in near-optimal locations for earthquake early warning and rapid response purposes. In fact, it is expected that this network, which utilizes the GFZ-Sentry software, allowing decentralized event assessment calculations, not only will provide useful strong motion data useful for improving future seismic hazard and risk assessment, but will serve as the backbone for regional and on-site earthquake early warning operations. Based on the location of these stations, and travel-time estimates for P- and S-waves, we have determined potential lead times for several major urban areas in Kyrgyzstan (i.e., Bishkek, Osh, and Karakol) and Kazakhstan (Almaty), where we find the implementation of an efficient earthquake early warning system would provide lead times outside the blind zone ranging from several seconds up to several tens of seconds. This was confirmed by the simulation of the possible shaking (and intensity) that would arise considering a series of scenarios based on historical and expected events, and how they affect the major urban centres. Such lead times would allow the instigation of automatic mitigation procedures, while the system as a whole would support prompt and efficient actions to be undertaken over large areas.

101. View of transmitter building no. 102, missile warning operation ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

101. View of transmitter building no. 102, missile warning operation center, close up view of DRED (detection radar environmental display) console in operation showing target. Official photograph BMEWS Project by Hansen, 14 March 1963, clear as negative no. A-8803. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

Space geodetic tools provide early warnings for earthquakes and volcanic eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aoki, Yosuke

2017-04-01

Development of space geodetic techniques such as Global Navigation Satellite System and Synthetic Aperture Radar in last few decades allows us to monitor deformation of Earth's surface in unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. These observations, combined with fast data transmission and quick data processing, enable us to quickly detect and locate earthquakes and volcanic eruptions and assess potential hazards such as strong earthquake shaking, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. These techniques thus are key parts of early warning systems, help identify some hazards before a cataclysmic event, and improve the response to the consequent damage.

A proposed Primary Health Early Warning Score (PHEWS) with emphasis on early detection of sepsis in the elderly.

PubMed

Anderson, Ian

2016-03-01

There are several secondary care early warning scores which alert for severe illness including sepsis. None are specifically adjusted for primary care. A Primary Health Early Warning Score (PHEWS) is proposed which incorporates practical parameters from both secondary and primary care.

Use of a novel electronic maternal surveillance system to generate automated alerts on the labor and delivery unit.

PubMed

Klumpner, Thomas T; Kountanis, Joanna A; Langen, Elizabeth S; Smith, Roger D; Tremper, Kevin K

2018-06-26

Maternal early warning systems reduce maternal morbidity. We developed an electronic maternal surveillance system capable of visually summarizing the labor and delivery census and identifying changes in clinical status. Automatic page alerts to clinical providers, using an algorithm developed at our institution, were incorporated in an effort to improve early detection of maternal morbidity. We report the frequency of pages generated by the system. To our knowledge, this is the first time such a system has been used in peripartum care. Alert criteria were developed after review of maternal early warning systems, including the Maternal Early Warning Criteria (MEWC). Careful consideration was given to the frequency of pages generated by the surveillance system. MEWC notification criteria were liberalized and a paging algorithm was created that triggered paging alerts to first responders (nurses) and then managing services due to the assumption that paging all clinicians for each vital sign triggering MEWC would generate an inordinate number of pages. For preliminary analysis, to determine the effect of our automated paging algorithm on alerting frequency, the paging frequency of this system was compared to the frequency of vital signs meeting the Maternal Early Warning Criteria (MEWC). This retrospective analysis was limited to a sample of 34 patient rooms uniquely capable of storing every vital sign reported by the bedside monitor. Over a 91-day period, from April 1 to July 1, 2017, surveillance was conducted from 64 monitored beds, and the obstetrics service received one automated page every 2.3 h. The most common triggers for alerts were for hypertension and tachycardia. For the subset of 34 patient rooms uniquely capable of real-time recording, one vital sign met the MEWC every 9.6 to 10.3 min. Anecdotally, the system was well-received. This novel electronic maternal surveillance system is designed to reduce cognitive bias and improve timely clinical recognition of maternal deterioration. The automated paging algorithm developed for this software dramatically reduces paging frequency compared to paging for isolated vital sign abnormalities alone. Long-term, prospective studies will be required to determine its impact on patient outcomes.

Simulating Earthquake Early Warning Systems in the Classroom as a New Approach to Teaching Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Alessio, M. A.

2010-12-01

A discussion of P- and S-waves seems an ubiquitous part of studying earthquakes in the classroom. Textbooks from middle school through university level typically define the differences between the waves and illustrate the sense of motion. While many students successfully memorize the differences between wave types (often utilizing the first letter as a memory aide), textbooks rarely give tangible examples of how the two waves would "feel" to a person sitting on the ground. One reason for introducing the wave types is to explain how to calculate earthquake epicenters using seismograms and travel time charts -- very abstract representations of earthquakes. Even when the skill is mastered using paper-and-pencil activities or one of the excellent online interactive versions, locating an epicenter simply does not excite many of our students because it evokes little emotional impact, even in students located in earthquake-prone areas. Despite these limitations, huge numbers of students are mandated to complete the task. At the K-12 level, California requires that all students be able to locate earthquake epicenters in Grade 6; in New York, the skill is a required part of the Regent's Examination. Recent innovations in earthquake early warning systems around the globe give us the opportunity to address the same content standard, but with substantially more emotional impact on students. I outline a lesson about earthquakes focused on earthquake early warning systems. The introductory activities include video clips of actual earthquakes and emphasize the differences between the way P- and S-waves feel when they arrive (P arrives first, but is weaker). I include an introduction to the principle behind earthquake early warning (including a summary of possible uses of a few seconds warning about strong shaking) and show examples from Japan. Students go outdoors to simulate P-waves, S-waves, and occupants of two different cities who are talking to one another on cell phones. The culminating activity is for students to "design" an early warning system that will protect their school from nearby earthquakes. The better they design the system, the safer they will be. Each team of students receives a map of faults in the area and possible sites for real-time seismometer installation. Given a fixed budget, they must select the best sites for detecting a likely earthquake. After selecting their locations, teams face-off two-by-two in a tournament of simulated earthquakes. We created animations of a few simulated earthquakes for our institution and have plans to build a web-based version that will allow others to customize the location to their own location and facilitate the competition between teams. Earthquake early warning is both cutting-edge and has huge societal benefits. Instead of teaching our students how to locate epicenters after an earthquake has occurred, we can teach the same content standards while showing them that earthquake science can really save lives.

Definition of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide early warning in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cancelliere, A.; Peres, D. J.

2011-12-01

Extreme rainfall is the main cause of shallow landslides. For risk mitigation, landslide early warning systems can be implemented, on the basis of rainfall monitoring and forecasting, and the use of a landslide triggering model. Several empirical, also referred to as statistical, rainfall-landslide triggering models have been proposed in the scientific literature, and used for early warning systems activated worldwide. Nonetheless, it is not clear how effective are landslide warning systems, and it is difficult to quantify the induced benefits for the implemented ones. Many rainfall thresholds have been determined through the statistical analysis of the rainfall events that have been the cause of past landslides only, thus neglecting the cases of true negatives and false positives, with negative effects on the robustness of the proposed threshold and, probably, on the effectiveness of the warning system. In the present work we address the issue of establishing warning thresholds, which, although in an approximate way, account for the related benefits. We propose the maximization of an objective function, that measures the trade-off between true and false warning issues. A ratio between the disadvantages of false positive and false negatives, not greater than one, is introduced in the function. The effect of this ratio on the determination of the thresholds is analysed. The proposed method is based on the availability of a continuous rainfall time series. In Italy, continuous rainfall time series are available from the 1920s, but practical difficulties arise for using them, as they are not published in the Hydrological Annual Reports, by the Servizio Idrografico e Mareografico Nazionale (National Hydrologic and Oceanographic Service), the manager of the most important rainfall monitoring network in Italy. However, it is possible to have a good approximation of the most intense rainfall events, in terms total rainfall, by using the data of annual maxima of precipitation for given durations, which are available in those Reports. The National Research Council's AVI database, the most complete systematic inventory of landslides events occurred in the past century in Italy, can be exploited to determine the thresholds. Hence the method has applicability for whole Italy, and uses large datasets of easy availability. As the method is based on the analysis of subdaily data, it is reliable for shallow landslides, for which low influence of antecedent precipitation on landslide triggering can be supposed. The method is illustrated through its application to case study areas in Sicily, for which there is high interest for activating early warning systems, after that the 1st October 2009 debris flow caused the loss of 37 lives and severe damage to nearby urban areas in the Peloritan Mountains.

Early Warning Signals of Social Transformation: A Case Study from the US Southwest

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Recent research in ecology suggests that generic indicators, referred to as early warning signals (EWS), may occur before significant transformations, both critical and non-critical, in complex systems. Up to this point, research on EWS has largely focused on simple models and controlled experiments in ecology and climate science. When humans are considered in these arenas they are invariably seen as external sources of disturbance or management. In this article we explore ways to include societal components of socio-ecological systems directly in EWS analysis. Given the growing archaeological literature on ‘collapses,’ or transformations, in social systems, we investigate whether any early warning signals are apparent in the archaeological records of the build-up to two contemporaneous cases of social transformation in the prehistoric US Southwest, Mesa Verde and Zuni. The social transformations in these two cases differ in scope and severity, thus allowing us to explore the contexts under which warning signals may (or may not) emerge. In both cases our results show increasing variance in settlement size before the transformation, but increasing variance in social institutions only before the critical transformation in Mesa Verde. In the Zuni case, social institutions appear to have managed the process of significant social change. We conclude that variance is of broad relevance in anticipating social change, and the capacity of social institutions to mitigate transformation is critical to consider in EWS research on socio-ecological systems. PMID:27706200

Implementation of the Geological Hazard Monitoring and Early Warning System Based on Multi - source Data -A Case Study of Deqin Tibetan County, Yunnan Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Junsan; Chen, Guoping; Yuan, Lei

2017-04-01

The new technologies, such as 3D laser scanning, InSAR, GNSS, unmanned aerial vehicle and Internet of things, will provide much more data resources for the surveying and monitoring, as well as the development of Early Warning System (EWS). This paper provides the solutions of the design and implementation of a geological disaster monitoring and early warning system (GDMEWS), which includes landslides and debris flows hazard, based on the multi-sources of the date by use of technologies above mentioned. The complex and changeable characteristics of the GDMEWS are described. The architecture of the system, composition of the multi-source database, development mode and service logic, the methods and key technologies of system development are also analyzed. To elaborate the process of the implementation of the GDMEWS, Deqin Tibetan County is selected as a case study area, which has the unique terrain and diverse types of typical landslides and debris flows. Firstly, the system functional requirements, monitoring and forecasting models of the system are discussed. Secondly, the logic relationships of the whole process of disaster including pre-disaster, disaster rescue and post-disaster reconstruction are studied, and the support tool for disaster prevention, disaster reduction and geological disaster management are developed. Thirdly, the methods of the multi - source monitoring data integration and the generation of the mechanism model of Geological hazards and simulation are expressed. Finally, the construction of the GDMEWS is issued, which will be applied to management, monitoring and forecasting of whole disaster process in real-time and dynamically in Deqin Tibetan County. Keywords: multi-source spatial data; geological disaster; monitoring and warning system; Deqin Tibetan County

Ecosystems for Early Warning: Potential Use of Bioindicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zommers, Z. A.; Sitati, A. M.; Habilov, M.

2014-12-01

Bioindicators are biological processes, species or communities, which are used to assess changes in the environment or environmental quality. Theoretically, they could also be used to provide advanced warning of hazards. They are inexpensive, locally relevant, and can encourage stakeholder participation in early warning system development and maintenance. While bioindicators have been identified for environmental problems such as air pollution and water pollution, and have been used to assess health of ecosystems, little information is available on bioindicators for climate related hazards. This presentation reviews possible biodindicators for droughts, wildfires and tropical cyclones, based on the results of a literature review. It will also present results from a household survey of 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso. Indigenous knowledge offers a wealth of potential bioindicators; including animal and insect behavior, and plant phenology. Yet significant study is needed to verify these indicators and evaluate them against criteria such as specificity, variability, monotonicity, practicality and relevance. Bioindicators may not be specific to individual hazards and may provide limited advanced warning, as response often occurs after the actual onset of the hazard. Furthermore, indicators may become increasingly unreliable due to climate change itself. There is a need for a large-scale assessment of hazard bioindicators, which should also include forecasts of bioindicator change under global warming, and a cost-benefit analysis of the value of integrating bioindicators into early warning systems. Lessons can be drawn from ethnopharmacology. Coordinated research on this topic could contribute to the resilience of both ecosystems and human livelihoods.

Research on Climate and Dengue in Malaysia: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Hii, Yien Ling; Zaki, Rafdzah Ahmad; Aghamohammadi, Nasrin; Rocklöv, Joacim

2016-03-01

Dengue is a climate-sensitive infectious disease. Climate-based dengue early warning may be a simple, low-cost, and effective tool for enhancing surveillance and control. Scientific studies on climate and dengue in local context form the basis for advancing the development of a climate-based early warning system. This study aims to review the current status of scientific studies in climate and dengue and the prospect or challenges of such research on a climate-based dengue early warning system in a dengue-endemic country, taking Malaysia as a case study. We reviewed the relationship between climate and dengue derived from statistical modeling, laboratory tests, and field studies. We searched electronic databases including PubMed, Scopus, EBSCO (MEDLINE), Web of Science, and the World Health Organization publications, and assessed climate factors and their influence on dengue cases, mosquitoes, and virus and recent development in the field of climate and dengue. Few studies in Malaysia have emphasized the relationship between climate and dengue. Climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, and humidity are associated with dengue; however, these relationships were not consistent. Climate change projections for Malaysia show a mounting risk for dengue in the future. Scientific studies on climate and dengue enhance dengue surveillance in the long run. It is essential for institutions in Malaysia to promote research on climate and vector-borne diseases to advance the development of climate-based early warning systems. Together, effective strategies that improve existing research capacity, maximize the use of limited resources, and promote local-international partnership are crucial for sustaining research on climate and health.

Citizen Science to Support Community-based Flood Early Warning and Resilience Building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paul, J. D.; Buytaert, W.; Allen, S.; Ballesteros-Cánovas, J. A.; Bhusal, J.; Cieslik, K.; Clark, J.; Dewulf, A.; Dhital, M. R.; Hannah, D. M.; Liu, W.; Nayaval, J. L.; Schiller, A.; Smith, P. J.; Stoffel, M.; Supper, R.

2017-12-01

In Disaster Risk Management, an emerging shift has been noted from broad-scale, top-down assessments towards more participatory, community-based, bottom-up approaches. Combined with technologies for robust and low-cost sensor networks, a citizen science approach has recently emerged as a promising direction in the provision of extensive, real-time information for flood early warning systems. Here we present the framework and initial results of a major new international project, Landslide EVO, aimed at increasing local resilience against hydrologically induced disasters in western Nepal by exploiting participatory approaches to knowledge generation and risk governance. We identify three major technological developments that strongly support our approach to flood early warning and resilience building in Nepal. First, distributed sensor networks, participatory monitoring, and citizen science hold great promise in complementing official monitoring networks and remote sensing by generating site-specific information with local buy-in, especially in data-scarce regions. Secondly, the emergence of open source, cloud-based risk analysis platforms supports the construction of a modular, distributed, and potentially decentralised data processing workflow. Finally, linking data analysis platforms to social computer networks and ICT (e.g. mobile phones, tablets) allows tailored interfaces and people-centred decision- and policy-support systems to be built. Our proposition is that maximum impact is created if end-users are involved not only in data collection, but also over the entire project life-cycle, including the analysis and provision of results. In this context, citizen science complements more traditional knowledge generation practices, and also enhances multi-directional information provision, risk management, early-warning systems and local resilience building.

Early Warning Signals for Abrupt Change Raise False Alarm During Sea Ice Loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, T. J. W.; Eisenman, I.

2015-12-01

Uncovering universal early warning signals for critical transitions has become a coveted goal in diverse scientific disciplines, ranging from climate science to financial mathematics. There has been a flurry of recent research proposing such signals, with increasing autocorrelation and increasing variance being among the most widely discussed candidates. A number of studies have suggested that increasing autocorrelation alone may suffice to signal an impending transition, although some others have questioned this. Here, we consider variance and autocorrelation in the context of sea ice loss in an idealized model of the global climate system. The model features no bifurcation, nor increased rate of retreat, as the ice disappears. Nonetheless, the autocorrelation of summer sea ice area is found to increase with diminishing sea ice cover in a global warming scenario. The variance, by contrast, decreases. A simple physical mechanism is proposed to explain the occurrence of increasing autocorrelation but not variance in the model when there is no approaching bifurcation. Additionally, a similar mechanism is shown to allow an increase in both indicators with no physically attainable bifurcation. This implies that relying on autocorrelation and variance as early warning signals can raise false alarms in the climate system, warning of "tipping points" that are not actually there.

Landslide monitoring and early warning systems in Lower Austria - current situation and new developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiebes, Benni; Glade, Thomas; Schweigl, Joachim; Jäger, Stefan; Canli, Ekrem

2014-05-01

Landslides represent significant hazards in the mountainous areas of Austria. The Regional Geological Surveys are responsible to inform and protect the population, and to mitigate damage to infrastructure. Efforts of the Regional Geological Survey of Lower Austria include detailed site investigations, the planning and installation of protective structures (e.g. rock fall nets) as well as preventive measures such as regional scale landslide susceptibility assessments. For potentially endangered areas, where protection works are not feasible or would simply be too costly, monitoring systems have been installed. However, these systems are dominantly not automatic and require regular field visits to take measurements. Therefore, it is difficult to establish any relation between initiating and controlling factors, thus to fully understand the underlying process mechanism which is essential for any early warning system. Consequently, the implementation of new state-of-the-art monitoring and early warning systems has been started. In this presentation, the design of four landslide monitoring and early warning systems is introduced. The investigated landslide process types include a deep-seated landslide, a rock fall site, a complex earth flow, and a debris flow catchment. The monitoring equipment was chosen depending on the landslide processes and their activity. It aims to allow for a detailed investigation of process mechanisms in relation to its triggers and for reliable prediction of future landslide activities. The deep-seated landslide will be investigated by manual and automatic inclinometers to get detailed insights into subsurface displacements. In addition, TDR sensors and a weather station will be employed to get a better understanding on the influence of rainfall on sub-surface hydrology. For the rockfall site, a wireless sensor network will be installed to get real-time information on acceleration and inclination of potentially unstable blocks. The movement of the earth flow site will be monitored by differential GPS to get high precision information on displacements of marked points. Photogrammtetry based on octocopter surveys will provide spatial information on movement patterns. A similar approach will be followed for the debris flow catchment. Here, the focus lies on a monitoring of the landslide failures in the source area which prepares the material for subsequent debris flow transport. In addition to the methods already mentioned, repeated terrestrial laserscanning campaigns will be used to monitor geomorphological changes at all sites. All important data, which can be single measurements, episodic or continuous monitoring data for a given point (e.g. rainfall, inclination) or of spatial character (e.g. LiDAR measurements), are collected and analysed on an external server. Automatic data analysis methods, such as progressive failure analysis, are carried out automatically based on field measurements. The data and results from all monitoring sites are visualised on a web-based platform which enables registered users to analyse the respective information in near-real-time. Moreover, thresholds can be determined which trigger automated warning messages to the involved scientists if thresholds are exceeded by field measurements. The described system will enable scientists and decision-makers to access the latest data from the monitoring systems. Automatic alarms are raised when thresholds are exceeded to inform them about potentially hazardous changes. Thereby, a more efficient hazard management and early warning can be achieved. Keywords: landslide, rockfall, debris flow, earth flow, monitoring, early warning system.

The GNSS-based Ground Tracking System (GTS) of GFZ; from GITEWS to PROTECTS and beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falck, Carsten; Merx, Alexander; Ramatschi, Markus

2013-04-01

Introduction An automatic system for the near real-time determination and visualization of ground motions, respectively co-seismic deformations of the Earth's surface, was developed by GFZ (German Research Centre for Geosciences) within the project GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System). The system is capable to deliver 3D-displacement vectors for locations with appropriate GPS-equipment in the vicinity of an earthquake's epicenter with a delay of only a few minutes. These vectors can help to assess the earthquake causing tectonic movements, which must be known to make reliable early warning predictions, e.g., concerning the generation of tsunami waves. The GTS (Ground Tracking System) has been integrated into InaTEWS (Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) and is in operation at the national warning center in Jakarta since November 2008. After the end of the project GITEWS GFZ continues to support the GTS in Indonesia within the frame of PROTECTS (Project for Training, Education and Consulting for Tsunami Early Warning Systems) and recently some new developments have been introduced. We now aim to make further use of the achievements made, e.g., by developing a license model for the GTS software package. Motivation After the Tsunami of 26th December 2004 the German government initiated the GITEWS project to develop the main components for a tsunami early warning system in Indonesia. The GFZ, as the consortial leader of GITEWS, had several work packages, most of them related to sensor systems. The geodetic branch (Department 1) of GFZ was assigned to develop a GNSS-based component, which since then is known as the GTS (Ground Tracking System). System benefit The ground motion information delivered by the GTS is a valuable source for a fast understanding of an earthquake's mechanism with a high relevance to assess the probability and magnitude of a potentially following tsunami. The system may detect highest displacement vector values, where seismic systems may tend to have problems with the determination of earthquake magnitudes, e.g. close to an earthquake epicenter. By considering displacement vectors the GTS may significantly support the decision finding process whether a tsunami has been generated. Brief system description The GTS may be divided into three main components: 1) The data acquisition component receives and manages data from GNSS-stations being transferred either in real-time, file based or both in parallel, including, e.g., format conversions and real-time spreading to other services. It also acquires the most actual auxiliary data needed for data processing, e.g., GNSS-satellite orbit data or, in case of internet problems, generates them from ephemeris broadcast transmissions, received by the connected GNSS-network stations. 2) The automatic GNSS-data processing unit calculates coordinate time series for all GNSS-stations providing data. The processing kernel is the robust working and well supported »Bernese GPS Software«, but wrapped into adaptations for a fully automatic near real-time processing. The final products of this unit are 3D-displacement vectors, which are calculated as differences to the mean coordinates of the latest timespan prior to an earthquake. 3) The graphical user interface (GUI) of the GTS supports both, a quick view for all staff members at the warning centre (24h/7d shifts) and deeper analysis by experts. The states of the connected GNSS-networks and of the automatic data processing system are displayed. Other views are available, e.g., to check intermediate processing steps or historic data. The GTS final products, the 3D-displacement vectors, are displayed as arrows and bars on a map view. The GUI system is implemented as a web-based application and allows all views to be displayed on many screens at the same time, even at remote locations. Acknowledgements The projects GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) and PROTECTS (Project for Training, Education and Consulting for Tsunami Early Warning System) are carried out by a large group of scientists and engineers from (GFZ) German Research Centre for Geosciences and its partners from the German Aerospace Centre (DLR), the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), the GKSS Research Centre, the Konsortium Deutsche Meeresforschung (KDM), the Leibniz Institute for Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), the United Nations University (UNU), the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), the German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) and other international partners. Funding is provided by the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF), Grant 03TSU01 and 03TSU07.

Electronic rumble strip

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stauffer, Donald R.; Lenz, James

1997-02-01

Single vehicle run-off-road accidents are responsible for significant numbers of injuries and fatalities, and significant property damage. This fact spurs interest in warning systems to alert drivers that vehicles are drifting towards the edge of the road, and that a run-off road accident is imminent. An early attempt at such a warning system is the use of machined grooves on the shoulder to create a rumble strip. Such a system only provides warning, however, as the vehicle actually leaves the traffic lane. More desirable is a system that warns in anticipation of such departure. Honeywell has under development a magnetic lateral guidance system that couples a sensitive magnetoresistive transducer with a magnetic traffic marking tape being developed by 3M. While this development was initially undertaken for use in automated highways, or for special tasks such as guiding snowplow owners, the system can provide an effective, all-weather warning system to provide alert of impending departure from the roadway. This electronic rumble strip is actually a simpler system than the baseline guidance system, and can monitor both distance from the traffic lane edge and the speed of approach to the edge with a low cost sensor.

Early warning, warning or alarm systems for natural hazards? A generic classification.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sättele, Martina; Bründl, Michael; Straub, Daniel

2013-04-01

Early warning, warning and alarm systems have gained popularity in recent years as cost-efficient measures for dangerous natural hazard processes such as floods, storms, rock and snow avalanches, debris flows, rock and ice falls, landslides, flash floods, glacier lake outburst floods, forest fires and even earthquakes. These systems can generate information before an event causes loss of property and life. In this way, they mainly mitigate the overall risk by reducing the presence probability of endangered objects. These systems are typically prototypes tailored to specific project needs. Despite their importance there is no recognised system classification. This contribution classifies warning and alarm systems into three classes: i) threshold systems, ii) expert systems and iii) model-based expert systems. The result is a generic classification, which takes the characteristics of the natural hazard process itself and the related monitoring possibilities into account. The choice of the monitoring parameters directly determines the system's lead time. The classification of 52 active systems moreover revealed typical system characteristics for each system class. i) Threshold systems monitor dynamic process parameters of ongoing events (e.g. water level of a debris flow) and incorporate minor lead times. They have a local geographical coverage and a predefined threshold determines if an alarm is automatically activated to warn endangered objects, authorities and system operators. ii) Expert systems monitor direct changes in the variable disposition (e.g crack opening before a rock avalanche) or trigger events (e.g. heavy rain) at a local scale before the main event starts and thus offer extended lead times. The final alarm decision incorporates human, model and organisational related factors. iii) Model-based expert systems monitor indirect changes in the variable disposition (e.g. snow temperature, height or solar radiation that influence the occurrence probability of snow avalanches) or trigger events (e.g. heavy snow fall) to predict spontaneous hazard events in advance. They encompass regional or national measuring networks and satisfy additional demands such as the standardisation of the measuring stations. The developed classification and the characteristics, which were revealed for each class, yield a valuable input to quantifying the reliability of warning and alarm systems. Importantly, this will facilitate to compare them with well-established standard mitigation measures such as dams, nets and galleries within an integrated risk management approach.

Mapping Historic Gypsy Moth Defoliation with MODIS Satellite Data: Implications for Forest Threat Early Warning System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spurce, Joseph P.; Hargrove, William; Ryan, Robert E.; Smooth, James C.; Prados, Don; McKellip, Rodney; Sader, Steven A.; Gasser, Jerry; May, George

2008-01-01

This viewgraph presentation reviews a project, the goal of which is to study the potential of MODIS data for monitoring historic gypsy moth defoliation. A NASA/USDA Forest Service (USFS) partnership was formed to perform the study. NASA is helping USFS to implement satellite data products into its emerging Forest Threat Early Warning System. The latter system is being developed by the USFS Eastern and Western Forest Threat Assessment Centers. The USFS Forest Threat Centers want to use MODIS time series data for regional monitoring of forest damage (e.g., defoliation) preferably in near real time. The study's methodology is described, and the results of the study are shown.

[An early warning method of cucumber downy mildew in solar greenhouse based on canopy temperature and humidity modeling].

PubMed

Wang, Hui; Li, Mei-lan; Xu, Jian-ping; Chen, Mei-xiang; Li, Wen-yong; Li, Ming

2015-10-01

The greenhouse environmental parameters can be used to establish greenhouse nirco-climate model, which can combine with disease model for early warning, with aim of ecological controlling diseases to reduce pesticide usage, and protecting greenhouse ecological environment to ensure the agricultural product quality safety. Greenhouse canopy leaf temperature and air relative humidity, models were established using energy balance and moisture balance principle inside the greenhouse. The leaf temperature model considered radiation heat transfer between the greenhouse crops, wall, soil and cover, plus the heat exchange caused by indoor net radiation and crop transpiration. Furthermore, the water dynamic balance in the greenhouse including leaf transpiration, soil evaporation, cover and leaf water vapor condensation, was considered to develop a relative humidity model. The primary infection and latent period warning models for cucumber downy mildew (Pseudoperonospora cubensis) were validated using the results of the leaf temperature and relative humidity model, and then the estimated disease occurrence date of cucumber downy mildew was compared with actual disease occurrence date of field observation. Finally, the results were verified by the measured temperature and humidity data of September and October, 2014. The results showed that the root mean square deviations (RMSDs) of the measured and estimated leaf temperature were 0.016 and 0.024 °C, and the RMSDs of the measured and estimated air relative humidity were 0.15% and 0.13%, respectively. Combining the result of estimated temperature and humidity models, a cucumber disease early warning system was established to forecast the date of disease occurrence, which met with the real date. Thus, this work could provide the micro-environment data for the early warning system of cucumber diseases in solar greenhouses.

The Tropical Ecology, Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network: An early warning system for tropical rain forests.

PubMed

Rovero, Francesco; Ahumada, Jorge

2017-01-01

While there are well established early warning systems for a number of natural phenomena (e.g. earthquakes, catastrophic fires, tsunamis), we do not have an early warning system for biodiversity. Yet, we are losing species at an unprecedented rate, and this especially occurs in tropical rainforests, the biologically richest but most eroded biome on earth. Unfortunately, there is a chronic gap in standardized and pan-tropical data in tropical forests, affecting our capacity to monitor changes and anticipate future scenarios. The Tropical Ecology, Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network was established to contribute addressing this issue, as it generates real time data to monitor long-term trends in tropical biodiversity and guide conservation practice. We present the Network and focus primarily on the Terrestrial Vertebrates protocol, that uses systematic camera trapping to detect forest mammals and birds, and secondarily on the Zone of Interaction protocol, that measures changes in the anthroposphere around the core monitoring area. With over 3 million images so far recorded, and managed using advanced information technology, TEAM has created the most important data set on tropical forest mammals globally. We provide examples of site-specific and global analyses that, combined with data on anthropogenic disturbance collected in the larger ecosystem where monitoring sites are, allowed us to understand the drivers of changes of target species and communities in space and time. We discuss the potential of this system as a candidate model towards setting up an early warning system that can effectively anticipate changes in coupled human-natural system, trigger management actions, and hence decrease the gap between research and management responses. In turn, TEAM produces robust biodiversity indicators that meet the requirements set by global policies such as the Aichi Biodiversity Targets. Standardization in data collection and public sharing of data in near real time are essential features of such system. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of gas fire detection system using tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Y. L.; Li, G.; Yang, T.; Wang, J. J.

2017-01-01

The conventional fire detection methods mainly produce an alarm through detecting the changes in smoke concentration, flame radiation, heat and other physical parameters in the environment, but are unable to provide an early warning of a fire emergency. We have designed a gas fire detection system with a high detection sensitivity and high selectivity using the tunable semiconductor diode laser as a light source and combining wavelength modulation and harmonic detection technology. This system can invert the second harmonic signal obtained to obtain the concentration of carbon monoxide gas (a fire characteristic gas) so as to provide an early warning of fire. We reduce the system offset noise and the background noise generated due to the laser interference by deducting the system background spectrum lines from the second harmonic signal. This can also eliminate the interference of other gas spectral lines to a large extent. We detected the concentration of the carbon monoxide gas generated in smoldering sandalwood fire and open beech wood fire with the homemade fire simulator, and tested the lowest detectable limit of system. The test results show that the lowest detectable limit can reach 5×10-6 the system can maintain stable operation for a long period of time and can automatically trigger a water mist fire extinguishing system, which can fully meet the needs of early fire warning.

EARLY WARNING IN DRINKING WATER INTAKE PROTECTION: CORRELATING CHEMICAL DATA AND BIOLOGICAL WARNING SYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

The WRK Water Works is responsible for the abstraction and partial purifcation of surface water for the drinking water production of some 2m people in the Netherlands. Two water winning stations, one at a side canal of the Rhine, the other at IJsselmeer lake provide an annual tot...

Hybrid Intrusion Forecasting Framework for Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Sehun; Shin, Seong-Jun; Kim, Hyunwoo; Kwon, Ki Hoon; Han, Younggoo

Recently, cyber attacks have become a serious hindrance to the stability of Internet. These attacks exploit interconnectivity of networks, propagate in an instant, and have become more sophisticated and evolutionary. Traditional Internet security systems such as firewalls, IDS and IPS are limited in terms of detecting recent cyber attacks in advance as these systems respond to Internet attacks only after the attacks inflict serious damage. In this paper, we propose a hybrid intrusion forecasting system framework for an early warning system. The proposed system utilizes three types of forecasting methods: time-series analysis, probabilistic modeling, and data mining method. By combining these methods, it is possible to take advantage of the forecasting technique of each while overcoming their drawbacks. Experimental results show that the hybrid intrusion forecasting method outperforms each of three forecasting methods.

Accuracy and Efficiency of Recording Pediatric Early Warning Scores Using an Electronic Physiological Surveillance System Compared With Traditional Paper-Based Documentation.

PubMed

Sefton, Gerri; Lane, Steven; Killen, Roger; Black, Stuart; Lyon, Max; Ampah, Pearl; Sproule, Cathryn; Loren-Gosling, Dominic; Richards, Caitlin; Spinty, Jean; Holloway, Colette; Davies, Coral; Wilson, April; Chean, Chung Shen; Carter, Bernie; Carrol, E D

2017-05-01

Pediatric Early Warning Scores are advocated to assist health professionals to identify early signs of serious illness or deterioration in hospitalized children. Scores are derived from the weighting applied to recorded vital signs and clinical observations reflecting deviation from a predetermined "norm." Higher aggregate scores trigger an escalation in care aimed at preventing critical deterioration. Process errors made while recording these data, including plotting or calculation errors, have the potential to impede the reliability of the score. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a controlled study of documentation using five clinical vignettes. We measured the accuracy of vital sign recording, score calculation, and time taken to complete documentation using a handheld electronic physiological surveillance system, VitalPAC Pediatric, compared with traditional paper-based charts. We explored the user acceptability of both methods using a Web-based survey. Twenty-three staff participated in the controlled study. The electronic physiological surveillance system improved the accuracy of vital sign recording, 98.5% versus 85.6%, P < .02, Pediatric Early Warning Score calculation, 94.6% versus 55.7%, P < .02, and saved time, 68 versus 98 seconds, compared with paper-based documentation, P < .002. Twenty-nine staff completed the Web-based survey. They perceived that the electronic physiological surveillance system offered safety benefits by reducing human error while providing instant visibility of recorded data to the entire clinical team.

Research on early warning of food security using a system dynamics model: evidence from Jiangsu province in China.

PubMed

Xu, Jianling; Ding, Yi

2015-01-01

Analyzing the early warning of food security, this paper sets the self-sufficiency rate as the principal indicator in a standpoint of supplement. It is common to use the quantitative methods to forecast and warning the insecurity. However, this paper considers more about the probable outcome when the government intervenes. By constructing the causal feedbacks among grain supplement, demand, productive input, and the policy factors to simulate the future food security in Jiangsu province, conclusions can be drawn as the following: (1) The situation of food security is insecure if the self-sufficiency rate is under 68.3% according to the development of system inertia. (2) it is difficult to guarantee the food security in Jiangsu just depending on the increase of grain sown area. (3) The valid solution to ensure the food security in Jiangsu is to improve the productivity. © 2015 Institute of Food Technologists®

Validation of the Intensive Care Unit Early Warning Dashboard: Quality Improvement Utilizing a Retrospective Case-Control Evaluation.

PubMed

Kavanaugh, Michael J; So, Joanne D; Park, Peter J; Davis, Konrad L

2017-02-01

Risk stratification with the Modified Early Warning System (MEWS) or electronic cardiac arrest trigger (eCART) has been utilized with ward patients to preemptively identify high-risk patients who might benefit from enhanced monitoring, including early intensive care unit (ICU) transfer. In-hospital mortality from cardiac arrest is ∼80%, making preventative interventions an important focus area. ICUs have lower patient to nurse ratios than wards, resulting in less emphasis on the development of ICU early warning systems. Our institution developed an early warning dashboard (EWD) identifying patients who may benefit from earlier interventions. Using the adverse outcomes of cardiac arrest, ICU mortality, and ICU readmissions, a retrospective case-control study was performed using three demographic items (age, diabetes, and morbid obesity) and 24 EWD measured items, including vital signs, laboratory values, ventilator information, and other clinical information, to validate the EWD. Ten statistically significant areas were identified for cardiac arrest and 13 for ICU death. Identified items included heart rate, dialysis, leukocytosis, and lactate. The ICU readmission outcome was compared to controls from both ICU patients and ward patients, and statistical significance was identified for respiratory rate >30. With several statistically significant data elements, the EWD parameters have been incorporated into advanced clinical decision algorithms to identify at-risk ICU patients. Earlier identification and treatment of organ failure in the ICU improve outcomes and the EWD can serve as a safety measure for both at-risk in-house patients and also extend critical care expertise through telemedicine to smaller hospitals.

Onsite Portable Alarm System - Its Merit and Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saita, J.; Sato, T.; Nakamura, Y.

2007-12-01

Recently an existence of the earthquake early warning system (EEWS) becomes popular. In general, the EEWS will be installed in a fixed observation site and it may consist of several separated components such as a sensing portion, A/D converter, an information processing potion and so on. The processed information for warning may be transmitted to network via fixed communication line, and therefore this kind of alarm system is called as Network Alarm System. On the other hand, after the severe earthquake damage, it is very important to save the disaster victims immediately. These rescue staffs are also under the risk of aftershocks and need a local alarm not depending on the network, so this kind of alarm can be called as Onsite Alarm. But the common early warning system is too complex to set onsite temporary, and even if possible to install, the alarm is too late to receive at the epicentral area. However, the new generation earthquake early warning system FREQL can issue the P wave alarm by minimum 0.2 seconds after P wave detection. And FREQL is characterized as the unique all-in-one seismometer with power unit. At the time of the 2004 Niigata-Ken-Chuetsu earthquake, a land slide attacked a car just passing. A hyper rescue team of Tokyo Fire Department pulled the survivor, one baby, from the land slide area. During their activity the rescue team was exposed to the risk of secondary hazards caused by the aftershocks. It was clear that it is necessary to use a portable warning system to issue the onsite P wave alarm. Because FREQL was originally developed as portable equipment, Tokyo Fire Department asked us to modify it to the portable equipment with the loud sound and the light signal. In this moment, this portable FREQL has equipped in nation wide. When the hyper rescue team of Tokyo Fire Department was sent to Pakistan as a task force for rescue work of the 2005 Pakistan earthquake, the portable FREQL was used as important onsite portable warning system and P wave alarms was actually issued by three times during the rescue work. Although this is one example for the actual application of portable onsite alarm, it is possible to apply the other field as the construction field. In this presentation, Portable Onsite Alarm is discussed from views of its necessity and application.

In Brief: U.S. Volcano Early Warning System; Bill provides clear mandate for NOAA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2005-05-01

The U.S. Geological Survey on 29 April released a comprehensive review of the 169 U.S. volcanoes, and established a framework for a National Volcano Early Warning System that is being formulated by the Consortium of U.S. Volcano Observatories. The framework proposes an around-the-clock Volcano Watch Office and improved instrumentation and monitoring at targeted volcanoes. The report, authored by USGS scientists John Ewert, Marianne Guffanti, and Thomas Murray, notes that although a few U.S. volcanoes are well-monitored, half of the most threatening volcanoes are monitored at a basic level and some hazardous volcanoes have no ground-based monitoring.

Estimating millet production for famine early warning: An application of crop simulation modelling using satellite and ground-based data in Burkina Faso

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thornton, P. K.; Bowen, W. T.; Ravelo, A.C.; Wilkens, P. W.; Farmer, G.; Brock, J.; Brink, J. E.

1997-01-01

Early warning of impending poor crop harvests in highly variable environments can allow policy makers the time they need to take appropriate action to ameliorate the effects of regional food shortages on vulnerable rural and urban populations. Crop production estimates for the current season can be obtained using crop simulation models and remotely sensed estimates of rainfall in real time, embedded in a geographic information system that allows simple analysis of simulation results. A prototype yield estimation system was developed for the thirty provinces of Burkina Faso. It is based on CERES-Millet, a crop simulation model of the growth and development of millet (Pennisetum spp.). The prototype was used to estimate millet production in contrasting seasons and to derive production anomaly estimates for the 1986 season. Provincial yields simulated halfway through the growing season were generally within 15% of their final (end-of-season) values. Although more work is required to produce an operational early warning system of reasonable credibility, the methodology has considerable potential for providing timely estimates of regional production of the major food crops in countries of sub-Saharan Africa.

Community participation in tsunami early warning system in Pangandaran town

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadian, Sapari D.; Khadijah, Ute Lies Siti; Saepudin, Encang; Budiono, Agung; Yuliawati, Ayu Krishna

2017-07-01

Disaster-resilient communities are communities capable of anticipating and minimizing destructive forces through adaptation. Disaster is an event very close to the people of Indonesia, especially in the small tourism town of Pangadaran located at West Java, Indonesia. On July 17, 2006, the town was hit by a Mw 7.8 earthquake and tsunami that effected over 300 km of the coastline, where the community suffered losses in which more than 600 people were killed, with run up heights exceeding 20 m. The devastation of the tsunami have made the community more alert and together with the local government and other stakeholder develop an Early Warning System for Tsunami. The study is intended to discover issues on tsunami Early Warning System (EWS), disaster risk reduction measures taken and community participation. The research method used is descriptive and explanatory research. The study describe the Tsunami EWS and community based Disaster Risk Reduction in Pangandaran, the implementation of Tsunami alert/EWS in disaster preparedness and observation of community participation in EWS. Data were gathered by secondary data collection, also primary data through interviews, focus group discussions and field observations. Research resulted in a description of EWS implementation, community participation and recommendation to reduce disaster risk in Pangandaran.

Developing an automatic classification system of vegetation anomalies for early warning with the ASAP (Anomaly hot Spots of Agricultural Production) system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meroni, M.; Rembold, F.; Urbano, F.; Lemoine, G.

2016-12-01

Anomaly maps and time profiles of remote sensing derived indicators relevant to monitor crop and vegetation stress can be accessed online thanks to a rapidly growing number of web based portals. However, timely and systematic global analysis and coherent interpretation of such information, as it is needed for example for SDG 2 related monitoring, remains challenging. With the ASAP system (Anomaly hot Spots of Agricultural Production) we propose a two-step analysis to provide monthly warning of production deficits in water-limited agriculture worldwide. The first step is fully automated and aims at classifying each administrative unit (1st sub-national level) into a number of possible warning levels, ranging from "none" to "watch" and up to "extended alarm". The second step involves the verification of the automatic warnings and integration into a short national level analysis by agricultural analysts. In this paper we describe the methodological development of the automatic vegetation anomaly classification system. Warnings are triggered only during the crop growing season, defined by a remote sensing based phenology. The classification takes into consideration the fraction of the agricultural and rangelands area for each administrative unit that is affected by a severe anomaly of two rainfall-based indicators (the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), computed at 1 and 3-month scale) and one biophysical indicator (the cumulative NDVI from the start of the growing season). The severity of the warning thus depends on the timing, the nature and the number of indicators for which an anomaly is detected. The prototype system is using global NDVI images of the METOP sensor, while a second version is being developed based on 1km Modis NDVI with temporal smoothing and near real time filtering. Also a specific water balance model is under development to include agriculture water stress information in addition to the SPI. The monthly warning classification and crop condition assessment will be made available on a website and will strengthen the JRC support to information products based on consensus assessment such as the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning.

Personal Cabin Pressure Monitor and Warning System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zysko, Jan A. (Inventor)

2002-01-01

A cabin pressure altitude monitor and warning system provides a warning when a detected cabin pressure altitude has reached a predetermined level. The system is preferably embodied in a portable, pager-sized device that can be carried or worn by an individual. A microprocessor calculates the pressure altitude from signals generated by a calibrated pressure transducer and a temperature sensor that compensates for temperature variations in the signals generated by the pressure transducer. The microprocessor is programmed to generate a warning or alarm if a cabin pressure altitude exceeding a predetermined threshold is detected. Preferably, the microprocessor generates two different types of warning or alarm outputs, a first early warning or alert when a first pressure altitude is exceeded. and a second more serious alarm condition when either a second. higher pressure altitude is exceeded, or when the first pressure altitude has been exceeded for a predetermined period of time. Multiple types of alarm condition indicators are preferably provided, including visual, audible and tactile. The system is also preferably designed to detect gas concentrations and other ambient conditions, and thus incorporates other sensors, such as oxygen, relative humidity, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and ammonia sensors, to provide a more complete characterization and monitoring of the local environment.

Personal Cabin Pressure Monitor and Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zysko, Jan A.

2002-09-01

A cabin pressure altitude monitor and warning system provides a warning when a detected cabin pressure altitude has reached a predetermined level. The system is preferably embodied in a portable, pager-sized device that can be carried or worn by an individual. A microprocessor calculates the pressure altitude from signals generated by a calibrated pressure transducer and a temperature sensor that compensates for temperature variations in the signals generated by the pressure transducer. The microprocessor is programmed to generate a warning or alarm if a cabin pressure altitude exceeding a predetermined threshold is detected. Preferably, the microprocessor generates two different types of warning or alarm outputs, a first early warning or alert when a first pressure altitude is exceeded. and a second more serious alarm condition when either a second. higher pressure altitude is exceeded, or when the first pressure altitude has been exceeded for a predetermined period of time. Multiple types of alarm condition indicators are preferably provided, including visual, audible and tactile. The system is also preferably designed to detect gas concentrations and other ambient conditions, and thus incorporates other sensors, such as oxygen, relative humidity, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and ammonia sensors, to provide a more complete characterization and monitoring of the local environment.

Changing skewness: an early warning signal of regime shifts in ecosystems.

PubMed

Guttal, Vishwesha; Jayaprakash, Ciriyam

2008-05-01

Empirical evidence for large-scale abrupt changes in ecosystems such as lakes and vegetation of semi-arid regions is growing. Such changes, called regime shifts, can lead to degradation of ecological services. We study simple ecological models that show a catastrophic transition as a control parameter is varied and propose a novel early warning signal that exploits two ubiquitous features of ecological systems: nonlinearity and large external fluctuations. Either reduced resilience or increased external fluctuations can tip ecosystems to an alternative stable state. It is shown that changes in asymmetry in the distribution of time series data, quantified by changing skewness, is a model-independent and reliable early warning signal for both routes to regime shifts. Furthermore, using model simulations that mimic field measurements and a simple analysis of real data from abrupt climate change in the Sahara, we study the feasibility of skewness calculations using data available from routine monitoring.

49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 49 Transportation 6 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C Appendix C to Part 512 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief Counsel...

49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 49 Transportation 6 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C Appendix C to Part 512 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief Counsel...

49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C Appendix C to Part 512 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief Counsel...

49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 49 Transportation 6 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C Appendix C to Part 512 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief Counsel...

49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 49 Transportation 6 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C Appendix C to Part 512 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief Counsel...

The Role of Cash Flow in Financial Early Warning of Agricultural Enterprises Based on Logistic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Fengru

2018-01-01

This paper chooses the agricultural listed companies as the research object, compares the financial situation of the enterprise and the theory of financial early warning, combines the financial status of the agricultural listed companies, selects the relevant cash flow indicators, discusses the application of the Logistic financial early warning model in the agricultural listed companies, Agricultural enterprises get better development. Research on financial early warning of agricultural listed companies will help the agricultural listed companies to predict the financial crisis. Financial early warning model is simple to establish, operational and strong, the use of financial early warning model, to help enterprises in the financial crisis before taking rapid and effective measures, which can avoid losses. Help enterprises to discover signs of deterioration of the financial situation in time to maintain the sustainable development of agricultural enterprises. In addition, through the financial early warning model, investors can correctly identify the financial situation of agricultural enterprises, and can evaluate the financial situation of agricultural enterprises and to help investors to invest in scientific and rational, beneficial to investors to analyze the safety of investment. But also help the relevant regulatory agencies to effectively monitor the market and promote the healthy and stable development of the market.

ADVICE: A New Approach for Near-Real-Time Monitoring of Surface Displacements in Landslide Hazard Scenarios

PubMed Central

Allasia, Paolo; Manconi, Andrea; Giordan, Daniele; Baldo, Marco; Lollino, Giorgio

2013-01-01

We present a new method for near-real-time monitoring of surface displacements due to landslide phenomena, namely ADVanced dIsplaCement monitoring system for Early warning (ADVICE). The procedure includes: (i) data acquisition and transfer protocols; (ii) data collection, filtering, and validation; (iii) data analysis and restitution through a set of dedicated software; (iv) recognition of displacement/velocity threshold, early warning messages via SMS and/or emails; (v) automatic publication of the results on a dedicated webpage. We show how the system evolved and the results obtained by applying ADVICE over three years into a real early warning scenario relevant to a large earthflow located in southern Italy. ADVICE has speed-up and facilitated the understanding of the landslide phenomenon, the communication of the monitoring results to the partners, and consequently the decision-making process in a critical scenario. Our work might have potential applications not only for landslide monitoring but also in other contexts, as monitoring of other geohazards and of complex infrastructures, as open-pit mines, buildings, dams, etc. PMID:23807688

ADVICE: a new approach for near-real-time monitoring of surface displacements in landslide hazard scenarios.

PubMed

Allasia, Paolo; Manconi, Andrea; Giordan, Daniele; Baldo, Marco; Lollino, Giorgio

2013-06-27

We present a new method for near-real-time monitoring of surface displacements due to landslide phenomena, namely ADVanced dIsplaCement monitoring system for Early warning (ADVICE). The procedure includes: (i) data acquisition and transfer protocols; (ii) data collection, filtering, and validation; (iii) data analysis and restitution through a set of dedicated software; (iv) recognition of displacement/velocity threshold, early warning messages via SMS and/or emails; (v) automatic publication of the results on a dedicated webpage. We show how the system evolved and the results obtained by applying ADVICE over three years into a real early warning scenario relevant to a large earthflow located in southern Italy. ADVICE has speed-up and facilitated the understanding of the landslide phenomenon, the communication of the monitoring results to the partners, and consequently the decision-making process in a critical scenario. Our work might have potential applications not only for landslide monitoring but also in other contexts, as monitoring of other geohazards and of complex infrastructures, as open-pit mines, buildings, dams, etc.

Usage of Wireless Sensor Networks in a service based spatial data infrastructure for Landslide Monitoring and Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnhardt, C.; Fernandez-Steeger, T. M.; Walter, K.; Kallash, A.; Niemeyer, F.; Azzam, R.; Bill, R.

2007-12-01

The joint project Sensor based Landslide Early Warning System (SLEWS) aims at a systematic development of a prototyping alarm- and early warning system for the detection of mass movements by application of an ad hoc wireless sensor network (WSN). Next to the development of suitable sensor setups, sensor fusion and network fusion are applied to enhance data quality and reduce false alarm rates. Of special interest is the data retrieval, processing and visualization in GI-Systems. Therefore a suitable serviced based Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) will be developed with respect to existing and upcoming Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards.The application of WSN provides a cheap and easy to set up solution for special monitoring and data gathering in large areas. Measurement data from different low-cost transducers for deformation observation (acceleration, displacement, tilting) is collected by distributed sensor nodes (motes), which interact separately and connect each other in a self-organizing manner. Data are collected and aggregated at the beacon (transmission station) and further operations like data pre-processing and compression can be performed. The WSN concept provides next to energy efficiency, miniaturization, real-time monitoring and remote operation, but also new monitoring strategies like sensor and network fusion. Since not only single sensors can be integrated at single motes either cross-validation or redundant sensor setups are possible to enhance data quality. The planned monitoring and information system will include a mobile infrastructure (information technologies and communication components) as well as methods and models to estimate surface deformation parameters (positioning systems). The measurements result in heterogeneous observation sets that have to be integrated in a common adjustment and filtering approach. Reliable real-time information will be obtained using a range of sensor input and algorithms, from which early warnings and prognosis may be derived. Implementation of sensor algorithms is an important task to form the business logic. This will be represented in self-contained web-based processing services (WPS). In the future different types of sensor networks can communicate via an infrastructure of OGC services using an interoperable way by standardized protocols as the Sensor Markup Language (SensorML) and Observations & Measurements Schema (O&M). Synchronous and asynchronous information services as the Sensor Alert Service (SAS) and the Web Notification Services (WNS) will provide defined users and user groups with time-critical readings from the observation site. Techniques using services for visualizing mapping data (WMS), meta data (CSW), vector (WFS) and raster data (WCS) will range from high detailed expert based output to fuzzy graphical warning elements.The expected results will be an advancement regarding classical alarm and early warning systems as the WSN are free scalable, extensible and easy to install.

Geoethical considerations in early warning of flooding and landslides: Case study from Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devoli, Graziella; Kleivane Krøgli, Ingeborg; Dahl, Mads Peter; Colleuille, Hervé; Nykjær Boje, Søren; Sund, Monica

2015-04-01

The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) runs the national early warning systems (EWS) for flooding and shallow landslides in Norway. The two EWSs have been operational since the late 1980s and 2013 respectively, and are based on weather forecasts, various hydro-meteorological prognosis and expert evaluation. Daily warning levels and related information to the public is prepared and presented through custom build internet platforms. In natural hazards sciences, the risk of a specific threat is defined as the product of hazard and consequence. In this context an EWS is intended to work as a mitigation measure in lowering the consequence and thus the risk of the threat. One of several factors determining the quality of such an EWS, is how warnings are communicated to the public. In contrary to what is common practice in some other countries, experts working with EWS in Norway cannot be held personally responsible for consequences of warnings being issued or not. However, the communication of warnings for flooding and landslides at NVE still implies many considerations of geoethical kind. Which are the consequences today for the forecasters when erroneous warning messages are sent because based on a poorly documented analysis? What is for example the most responsible way to describe uncertainties in warnings issued? What is the optimal compromise between avoiding false alarms and not sending out a specific warning? Is it responsible to rely on a "gut feeling"? Some authorities complain in receiving warning messages too often. Is it responsible to begin notifying these, only in cases of "high hazard level" and no longer in cases of "moderate hazard level"? Is it acceptable to issue general warnings for large geographical areas without being able to pinpoint the treat on local scale? What responsibility lies within the EWS in recommending evacuation or other practical measures to local authorities? By presenting how early warnings of flooding and landslides are communicated in Norway and discussing the questions above, we intend to add to the discussion on what is the ethical responsibility for scientists performing forecasting and communication of natural hazards.

Rainfall threshold calculation for debris flow early warning in areas with scarcity of data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Hua-Li; Jiang, Yuan-Jun; Wang, Jun; Ou, Guo-Qiang

2018-05-01

Debris flows are natural disasters that frequently occur in mountainous areas, usually accompanied by serious loss of lives and properties. One of the most commonly used approaches to mitigate the risk associated with debris flows is the implementation of early warning systems based on well-calibrated rainfall thresholds. However, many mountainous areas have little data regarding rainfall and hazards, especially in debris-flow-forming regions. Therefore, the traditional statistical analysis method that determines the empirical relationship between rainstorms and debris flow events cannot be effectively used to calculate reliable rainfall thresholds in these areas. After the severe Wenchuan earthquake, there were plenty of deposits deposited in the gullies, which resulted in several debris flow events. The triggering rainfall threshold has decreased obviously. To get a reliable and accurate rainfall threshold and improve the accuracy of debris flow early warning, this paper developed a quantitative method, which is suitable for debris flow triggering mechanisms in meizoseismal areas, to identify rainfall threshold for debris flow early warning in areas with a scarcity of data based on the initiation mechanism of hydraulic-driven debris flow. First, we studied the characteristics of the study area, including meteorology, hydrology, topography and physical characteristics of the loose solid materials. Then, the rainfall threshold was calculated by the initiation mechanism of the hydraulic debris flow. The comparison with other models and with alternate configurations demonstrates that the proposed rainfall threshold curve is a function of the antecedent precipitation index (API) and 1 h rainfall. To test the proposed method, we selected the Guojuanyan gully, a typical debris flow valley that during the 2008-2013 period experienced several debris flow events, located in the meizoseismal areas of the Wenchuan earthquake, as a case study. The comparison with other threshold models and configurations shows that the selected approach is the most promising starting point for further studies on debris flow early warning systems in areas with a scarcity of data.

Patient attitudes towards remote continuous vital signs monitoring on general surgery wards: An interview study.

PubMed

Downey, C L; Brown, J M; Jayne, D G; Randell, R

2018-06-01

Vital signs monitoring is used to identify deteriorating patients in hospital. The most common tool for vital signs monitoring is an early warning score, although emerging technologies allow for remote, continuous patient monitoring. A number of reviews have examined the impact of continuous monitoring on patient outcomes, but little is known about the patient experience. This study aims to discover what patients think of monitoring in hospital, with a particular emphasis on intermittent early warning scores versus remote continuous monitoring, in order to inform future implementations of continuous monitoring technology. Semi-structured interviews were undertaken with 12 surgical inpatients as part of a study testing a remote continuous monitoring device. All patients were monitored with both an early warning score and the new device. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using thematic analysis. Patients can see the value in remote, continuous monitoring, particularly overnight. However, patients appreciate the face-to-face aspect of early warning score monitoring as it allows for reassurance, social interaction, and gives them further opportunity to ask questions about their medical care. Early warning score systems are widely used to facilitate detection of the deteriorating patient. Continuous monitoring technologies may provide added reassurance. However, patients value personal contact with their healthcare professionals and remote monitoring should not replace this. We suggest that remote monitoring is best introduced in a phased manner, and initially as an adjunct to usual care, with careful consideration of the patient experience throughout. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of an Impact-Oriented Quantitative Coastal Inundation forecasting and early warning system with social and economic assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fakhruddin, S. H. M.; Babel, Mukand S.; Kawasaki, Akiyuki

2014-05-01

Coastal inundations are an increasing threat to the lives and livelihoods of people living in low-lying, highly-populated coastal areas. According to a World Bank Report in 2005, at least 2.6 million people may have drowned due to coastal inundation, particularly caused by storm surges, over the last 200 years. Forecasting and prediction of natural events, such as tropical and extra-tropical cyclones, inland flooding, and severe winter weather, provide critical guidance to emergency managers and decision-makers from the local to the national level, with the goal of minimizing both human and economic losses. This guidance is used to facilitate evacuation route planning, post-disaster response and resource deployment, and critical infrastructure protection and securing, and it must be available within a time window in which decision makers can take appropriate action. Recognizing this extreme vulnerability of coastal areas to inundation/flooding, and with a view to improve safety-related services for the community, research should strongly enhance today's forecasting, prediction and early warning capabilities in order to improve the assessment of coastal vulnerability and risks and develop adequate prevention, mitigation and preparedness measures. This paper tries to develop an impact-oriented quantitative coastal inundation forecasting and early warning system with social and economic assessment to address the challenges faced by coastal communities to enhance their safety and to support sustainable development, through the improvement of coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems.

A Distributed Architecture for Tsunami Early Warning and Collaborative Decision-support in Crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moßgraber, J.; Middleton, S.; Hammitzsch, M.; Poslad, S.

2012-04-01

The presentation will describe work on the system architecture that is being developed in the EU FP7 project TRIDEC on "Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises". The challenges for a Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS) are manifold and the success of a system depends crucially on the system's architecture. A modern warning system following a system-of-systems approach has to integrate various components and sub-systems such as different information sources, services and simulation systems. Furthermore, it has to take into account the distributed and collaborative nature of warning systems. In order to create an architecture that supports the whole spectrum of a modern, distributed and collaborative warning system one must deal with multiple challenges. Obviously, one cannot expect to tackle these challenges adequately with a monolithic system or with a single technology. Therefore, a system architecture providing the blueprints to implement the system-of-systems approach has to combine multiple technologies and architectural styles. At the bottom layer it has to reliably integrate a large set of conventional sensors, such as seismic sensors and sensor networks, buoys and tide gauges, and also innovative and unconventional sensors, such as streams of messages from social media services. At the top layer it has to support collaboration on high-level decision processes and facilitates information sharing between organizations. In between, the system has to process all data and integrate information on a semantic level in a timely manner. This complex communication follows an event-driven mechanism allowing events to be published, detected and consumed by various applications within the architecture. Therefore, at the upper layer the event-driven architecture (EDA) aspects are combined with principles of service-oriented architectures (SOA) using standards for communication and data exchange. The most prominent challenges on this layer include providing a framework for information integration on a syntactic and semantic level, leveraging distributed processing resources for a scalable data processing platform, and automating data processing and decision support workflows.

G-FAST Early Warning Potential for Great Earthquakes in Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crowell, B.; Schmidt, D. A.; Baker, B. I.; Bodin, P.; Vidale, J. E.

2016-12-01

The importance of GNSS-based earthquake early warning for modeling large earthquakes has been studied extensively over the past decade and several such systems are currently under development. In the Pacific Northwest, we have developed the G-FAST GNSS-based earthquake early warning module for eventual inclusion in the US West-Coast wide ShakeAlert system. We have also created a test system that allows us to replay past and synthetic earthquakes to identify problems with both the network architecture and the algorithms. Between 2010 and 2016, there have been seven M > 8 earthquakes across the globe, of which three struck offshore Chile; the 27 February 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, the 1 April 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique, and the 16 September 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel. Subsequent to these events, the Chilean national GNSS network operated by the Centro Sismologico Nacional (http://www.sismologia.cl/) greatly expanded to over 150 continuous GNSS stations, providing the best recordings of great earthquakes with GNSS outside of Japan. Here we report on retrospective G-FAST performance for those three great earthquakes in Chile. We discuss the interplay of location errors, latency, and data completeness with respect to the precision and timing of G-FAST earthquake source alerts as well as the computational demands of the system.

The journalist's role in bioethics.

PubMed

Rosenfeld, A

1999-04-01

In the late 1950s and early 1960s, emerging advances in the biomedical sciences raised insufficiently noticed ethical issues, prompting science reporters to serve as a sort of Early Warning System. As awareness of bioethical issues increased rapidly everywhere, and bioethics itself arrived as a recognized discipline, the need for this early-warning press role has clearly diminished. A secondary but important role for the science journalist is that of investigative reporter/whistleblower, as in the Tuskegee syphilis trials and the government's secret plutonium experiments. Because the general public gets most of its information from the popular media, ways are suggested for journalists and bioethicists to work together.

Anatomy of Historical Tsunamis: Lessons Learned for Tsunami Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Igarashi, Y.; Kong, L.; Yamamoto, M.; McCreery, C. S.

2011-11-01

Tsunamis are high-impact disasters that can cause death and destruction locally within a few minutes of their occurrence and across oceans hours, even up to a day, afterward. Efforts to establish tsunami warning systems to protect life and property began in the Pacific after the 1946 Aleutian Islands tsunami caused casualties in Hawaii. Seismic and sea level data were used by a central control center to evaluate tsunamigenic potential and then issue alerts and warnings. The ensuing events of 1952, 1957, and 1960 tested the new system, which continued to expand and evolve from a United States system to an international system in 1965. The Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific (ITSU) steadily improved through the decades as more stations became available in real and near-real time through better communications technology and greater bandwidth. New analysis techniques, coupled with more data of higher quality, resulted in better detection, greater solution accuracy, and more reliable warnings, but limitations still exist in constraining the source and in accurately predicting propagation of the wave from source to shore. Tsunami event data collected over the last two decades through international tsunami science surveys have led to more realistic models for source generation and inundation, and within the warning centers, real-time tsunami wave forecasting will become a reality in the near future. The tsunami warning system is an international cooperative effort amongst countries supported by global and national monitoring networks and dedicated tsunami warning centers; the research community has contributed to the system by advancing and improving its analysis tools. Lessons learned from the earliest tsunamis provided the backbone for the present system, but despite 45 years of experience, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami reminded us that tsunamis strike and kill everywhere, not just in the Pacific. Today, a global intergovernmental tsunami warning system is coordinated under the United Nations. This paper reviews historical tsunamis, their warning activities, and their sea level records to highlight lessons learned with the focus on how these insights have helped to drive further development of tsunami warning systems and their tsunami warning centers. While the international systems do well for teletsunamis, faster detection, more accurate evaluations, and widespread timely alerts are still the goals, and challenges still remain to achieving early warning against the more frequent and destructive local tsunamis.

Implementation and Challenges of the Tsunami Warning System in the Western Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schindelé, F.; Gailler, A.; Hébert, H.; Loevenbruck, A.; Gutierrez, E.; Monnier, A.; Roudil, P.; Reymond, D.; Rivera, L.

2015-03-01

The French Tsunami Warning Center (CENALT) has been in operation since 2012. It is contributing to the North-eastern and Mediterranean (NEAM) tsunami warning and mitigation system coordinated by the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, and benefits from data exchange with several foreign institutes. This center is supported by the French Government and provides French civil-protection authorities and member states of the NEAM region with relevant messages for assessing potential tsunami risk when an earthquake has occurred in the Western Mediterranean sea or the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean. To achieve its objectives, CENALT has developed a series of innovative techniques based on recent research results in seismology for early tsunami warning, monitoring of sea level variations and detection capability, and effective numerical computation of ongoing tsunamis.

United States Earthquake Early Warning System: How Theory and Analysis Can Save America Before the Big One Happens

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-12-01

integration within the American preparedness culture. Perhaps most importantly, the implementation of ShakeAlert will help prepare the people , businesses...disasters through the use of an earthquake warning system. In general, people have an expectation that authorities will protect society from natural... Society of America, potentially damaging earthquakes may threaten more than 143 million Americans in the next 50 years, and 28 million persons are

78 FR 78321 - Early Warning Reporting, Foreign Defect Reporting, and Motor Vehicle and Equipment Recall...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-26

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 49 CFR Parts 573, 577, and 579 [Docket No. NHTSA--2012-0068; Notice 3] RIN 2127-AK72 Early Warning Reporting, Foreign Defect... final rule. Id. Manufacturers with early warning reporting (EWR) accounts may obtain a copy of the VIN...

Looming auditory collision warnings for driving.

PubMed

Gray, Rob

2011-02-01

A driving simulator was used to compare the effectiveness of increasing intensity (looming) auditory warning signals with other types of auditory warnings. Auditory warnings have been shown to speed driver reaction time in rear-end collision situations; however, it is not clear which type of signal is the most effective. Although verbal and symbolic (e.g., a car horn) warnings have faster response times than abstract warnings, they often lead to more response errors. Participants (N=20) experienced four nonlooming auditory warnings (constant intensity, pulsed, ramped, and car horn), three looming auditory warnings ("veridical," "early," and "late"), and a no-warning condition. In 80% of the trials, warnings were activated when a critical response was required, and in 20% of the trials, the warnings were false alarms. For the early (late) looming warnings, the rate of change of intensity signaled a time to collision (TTC) that was shorter (longer) than the actual TTC. Veridical looming and car horn warnings had significantly faster brake reaction times (BRT) compared with the other nonlooming warnings (by 80 to 160 ms). However, the number of braking responses in false alarm conditions was significantly greater for the car horn. BRT increased significantly and systematically as the TTC signaled by the looming warning was changed from early to veridical to late. Looming auditory warnings produce the best combination of response speed and accuracy. The results indicate that looming auditory warnings can be used to effectively warn a driver about an impending collision.

Validation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score in Hospitalized Pediatric Oncology and Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant Patients.

PubMed

Agulnik, Asya; Forbes, Peter W; Stenquist, Nicole; Rodriguez-Galindo, Carlos; Kleinman, Monica

2016-04-01

To evaluate the correlation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score with unplanned transfer to the PICU in hospitalized oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients. We performed a retrospective matched case-control study, comparing the highest documented Pediatric Early Warning Score within 24 hours prior to unplanned PICU transfers in hospitalized pediatric oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients between September 2011 and December 2013. Controls were patients who remained on the inpatient unit and were matched 2:1 using age, condition (oncology vs hematopoietic stem cell transplant), and length of hospital stay. Pediatric Early Warning Scores were documented by nursing staff at least every 4 hours as part of routine care. Need for transfer was determined by a PICU physician called to evaluate the patient. A large tertiary/quaternary free-standing academic children's hospital. One hundred ten hospitalized pediatric oncology patients (42 oncology, 68 hematopoietic stem cell transplant) requiring unplanned PICU transfer and 220 matched controls. None. Using the highest score in the 24 hours prior to transfer for cases and a matched time period for controls, the Pediatric Early Warning Score was highly correlated with the need for PICU transfer overall (area under the receiver operating characteristic = 0.96), and in the oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant groups individually (area under the receiver operating characteristic = 0.95 and 0.96, respectively). The difference in Pediatric Early Warning Score results between the cases and controls was noted as early as 24 hours prior to PICU admission. Seventeen patients died (15.4%). Patients with higher Pediatric Early Warning Scores prior to transfer had increased PICU mortality (p = 0.028) and length of stay (p = 0.004). We demonstrate that our institution's Pediatric Early Warning Score is highly correlated with the need for unplanned PICU transfer in hospitalized oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients. Furthermore, we found an association between higher scores and PICU mortality. This is the first validation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score specific to the pediatric oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant populations, and supports the use of Pediatric Early Warning Scores as a method of early identification of clinical deterioration in this high-risk population.

Real-time earthquake source imaging: An offline test for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yong; Wang, Rongjiang; Zschau, Jochen; Parolai, Stefano; Dahm, Torsten

2014-05-01

In recent decades, great efforts have been expended in real-time seismology aiming at earthquake and tsunami early warning. One of the most important issues is the real-time assessment of earthquake rupture processes using near-field seismogeodetic networks. Currently, earthquake early warning systems are mostly based on the rapid estimate of P-wave magnitude, which contains generally large uncertainties and the known saturation problem. In the case of the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake, JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) released the first warning of the event with M7.2 after 25 s. The following updates of the magnitude even decreased to M6.3-6.6. Finally, the magnitude estimate stabilized at M8.1 after about two minutes. This led consequently to the underestimated tsunami heights. By using the newly developed Iterative Deconvolution and Stacking (IDS) method for automatic source imaging, we demonstrate an offline test for the real-time analysis of the strong-motion and GPS seismograms of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The results show that we had been theoretically able to image the complex rupture process of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake automatically soon after or even during the rupture process. In general, what had happened on the fault could be robustly imaged with a time delay of about 30 s by using either the strong-motion (KiK-net) or the GPS (GEONET) real-time data. This implies that the new real-time source imaging technique is helpful to reduce false and missing warnings, and therefore should play an important role in future tsunami early warning and earthquake rapid response systems.

Can binary early warning scores perform as well as standard early warning scores for discriminating a patient's risk of cardiac arrest, death or unanticipated intensive care unit admission?

PubMed

Jarvis, Stuart; Kovacs, Caroline; Briggs, Jim; Meredith, Paul; Schmidt, Paul E; Featherstone, Peter I; Prytherch, David R; Smith, Gary B

2015-08-01

Although the weightings to be summed in an early warning score (EWS) calculation are small, calculation and other errors occur frequently, potentially impacting on hospital efficiency and patient care. Use of a simpler EWS has the potential to reduce errors. We truncated 36 published 'standard' EWSs so that, for each component, only two scores were possible: 0 when the standard EWS scored 0 and 1 when the standard EWS scored greater than 0. Using 1564,153 vital signs observation sets from 68,576 patient care episodes, we compared the discrimination (measured using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve--AUROC) of each standard EWS and its truncated 'binary' equivalent. The binary EWSs had lower AUROCs than the standard EWSs in most cases, although for some the difference was not significant. One system, the binary form of the National Early Warning System (NEWS), had significantly better discrimination than all standard EWSs, except for NEWS. Overall, Binary NEWS at a trigger value of 3 would detect as many adverse outcomes as are detected by NEWS using a trigger of 5, but would require a 15% higher triggering rate. The performance of Binary NEWS is only exceeded by that of standard NEWS. It may be that Binary NEWS, as a simplified system, can be used with fewer errors. However, its introduction could lead to significant increases in workload for ward and rapid response team staff. The balance between fewer errors and a potentially greater workload needs further investigation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction and warning system of SEP events and solar flares for risk estimation in space launch operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Rigo, Alberto; Núñez, Marlon; Qahwaji, Rami; Ashamari, Omar; Jiggens, Piers; Pérez, Gustau; Hernández-Pajares, Manuel; Hilgers, Alain

2016-07-01

A web-based prototype system for predicting solar energetic particle (SEP) events and solar flares for use by space launch operators is presented. The system has been developed as a result of the European Space Agency (ESA) project SEPsFLAREs (Solar Events Prediction system For space LAunch Risk Estimation). The system consists of several modules covering the prediction of solar flares and early SEP Warnings (labeled Warning tool), the prediction of SEP event occurrence and onset, and the prediction of SEP event peak and duration. In addition, the system acquires data for solar flare nowcasting from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS)-based techniques (GNSS Solar Flare Detector, GSFLAD and the Sunlit Ionosphere Sudden Total Electron Content Enhancement Detector, SISTED) as additional independent products that may also prove useful for space launch operators.

Control strategy to limit duty cycle impact of earthquakes on the LIGO gravitational-wave detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biscans, S.; Warner, J.; Mittleman, R.; Buchanan, C.; Coughlin, M.; Evans, M.; Gabbard, H.; Harms, J.; Lantz, B.; Mukund, N.; Pele, A.; Pezerat, C.; Picart, P.; Radkins, H.; Shaffer, T.

2018-03-01

Advanced gravitational-wave detectors such as the laser interferometer gravitational-wave observatories (LIGO) require an unprecedented level of isolation from the ground. When in operation, they measure motion of less than 10‑19 m. Strong teleseismic events like earthquakes disrupt the proper functioning of the detectors, and result in a loss of data. An earthquake early-warning system, as well as a prediction model, have been developed to understand the impact of earthquakes on LIGO. This paper describes a control strategy to use this early-warning system to reduce the LIGO downtime by  ∼30%. It also presents a plan to implement this new earthquake configuration in the LIGO automation system.

Using natural archives to detect climate and environmental tipping points in the Earth System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Zoë A.

2016-11-01

'Tipping points' in the Earth system are characterised by a nonlinear response to gradual forcing, and may have severe and wide-ranging impacts. Many abrupt events result from simple underlying system dynamics termed 'critical transitions' or 'bifurcations'. One of the best ways to identify and potentially predict threshold behaviour in the climate system is through analysis of natural ('palaeo') archives. Specifically, on the approach to a tipping point, early warning signals can be detected as characteristic fluctuations in a time series as a system loses stability. Testing whether these early warning signals can be detected in highly complex real systems is a key challenge, since much work is either theoretical or only tested with simple models. This is particularly problematic in palaeoclimate and palaeoenvironmental records with low resolution, non-equidistant data, which can limit accurate analysis. Here, a range of different datasets are examined to explore generic rules that can be used to detect such dramatic events. A number of key criteria are identified to be necessary for the reliable identification of early warning signals in natural archives, most crucially, the need for a low-noise record of sufficient data length, resolution and accuracy. A deeper understanding of the underlying system dynamics is required to inform the development of more robust system-specific indicators, or to indicate the temporal resolution required, given a known forcing. This review demonstrates that time series precursors from natural archives provide a powerful means of forewarning tipping points within the Earth System.

Study of Disseminating Landslide Early Warning Information in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koay, Swee Peng; Lateh, Habibah; Tien Tay, Lea; Ahamd, Jamilah; Chan, Huah Yong; Sakai, Naoki; Jamaludin, Suhaimi

2015-04-01

In Malaysia, rain induced landslides are occurring more often than before. The Malaysian Government allocates millions of Malaysian Ringgit for slope monitoring and slope failure remedial measures in the budget every year. In rural areas, local authorities also play a major role in monitoring the slope to prevent casualty by giving information to the residents who are staying near to the slopes. However, there are thousands of slopes which are classified as high risk slopes in Malaysia. Implementing site monitoring system in these slopes to monitor the movement of the soil in the slopes, predicting the occurrence of slopes failure and establishing early warning system are too costly and almost impossible. In our study, we propose Accumulated Rainfall vs. Rainfall Intensity prediction method to predict the slope failure by referring to the predicted rainfall data from radar and the rain volume from rain gauges. The critical line which determines if the slope is in danger, is generated by simulator with well-surveyed the soil property in the slope and compared with historical data. By establishing such predicting system, the slope failure warning information can be obtained and disseminated to the surroundings via SMS, internet and siren. However, establishing the early warning dissemination system is not enough in disaster prevention, educating school children and the community by giving knowledge on landslides, such as landslide's definition, how and why does the slope failure happen and when will it fail, to raise the risk awareness on landslides will reduce landslides casualty, especially in rural area. Moreover, showing video on the risk and symptom of landslides in school will also help the school children gaining the knowledge of landslides. Generating hazard map and landslides historical data provides further information on the occurrence of the slope failure. In future, further study on fine tuning of landslides prediction method, applying IT technology to educate school children and disseminate warning information will assist the government authorities to reduce landslide casualty by disseminating prompt slope failure warning and improving the community's awareness of disaster prevention.

Real-Time Integration of Positioning and Accelerometer Data for Early Earthquake Warning on Canada's West Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biffard, B.; Rosenberger, A.; Pirenne, B.; Valenzuela, M.; MacArthur, M.

2017-12-01

Ocean Networks Canada (ONC) operates ocean and coastal observatories on all three of Canada's coasts, and more particularly across the Cascadia subduction zone. The data are acquired, parsed, calibrated and archived by ONC's data management system (Oceans 2.0), with real-time event detection, reaction and access capabilities. As such, ONC is in a unique position to develop early warning systems for earthquakes, near- and far-field tsunamis and other events. ONC is leading the development of a system to alert southwestern British Columbia of an impending Cascadia subduction zone earthquake on behalf of the provincial government and with the support of the Canadian Federal Government. Similarly to other early earthquake warning systems, an array of accelerometers is used to detect the initial earthquake p-waves. This can provide 5-60 seconds of warning to subscribers who can then take action, such as stopping trains and surgeries, closing valves, taking cover, etc. To maximize the detection capability and the time available to react to a notification, instruments are placed both underwater and on land on Vancouver Island. A novel feature of ONC's system is, for land-based sites, the combination of real-time satellite positioning (GNSS) and accelerometer data in the calculations to improve earthquake intensity estimates. This results in higher accuracy, dynamic range and responsiveness than either type of sensor is capable of alone. P-wave detections and displacement data are sent from remote stations to a data centre that must calculate epicentre locations and magnitude. The latter are then delivered to subscribers with client software that, given their position, will calculate arrival time and intensity. All of this must occur with very high standards for latency, reliability and accuracy.

The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network: Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kühnlenz, F.; Fischer, J.; Eveslage, I.

2009-04-01

SAFER and EDIM working groups, the Department of Computer Science, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany, and Section 2.1 Earthquake Risk and Early Warning, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Germany Contact: Frank Kühnlenz, kuehnlenz@informatik.hu-berlin.de The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network (SOSEWIN) represents a new approach for Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), consisting in taking advantage of novel wireless communications technologies without the need of a planned, centralised infrastructure. It also sets out to overcome problems of insufficient node density, which typically affects present existing early warning systems, by having the SOSEWIN seismological sensing units being comprised of low-cost components (generally bought "off-the-shelf"), with each unit initially costing 100's of Euros, in contrast to 1,000's to 10,000's for standard seismological stations. The reduced sensitivity of the new sensing units arising from the use of lower-cost components will be compensated by the network's density, which in the future is expected to number 100's to 1000's over areas served currently by the order of 10's of standard stations. The robustness, independence of infrastructure, spontaneous extensibility due to a self-healing/self-organizing character in the case of removing/failing or adding sensors makes SOSEWIN potentially useful for various use cases, e.g. monitoring of building structures or seismic microzonation. Nevertheless its main purpose is the earthquake early warning, for which reason the ground motion is continuously monitored by conventional accelerometers (3-component). It uses SEEDLink to store and provide access to the sensor data. SOSEWIN considers also the needs of earthquake task forces, which want to set-up a temporary seismic network rapidly and with light-weighted stations to record after-shocks. The wireless and self-organising character of this sensor network should be of great value to do this job in a shorter time and with less manpower compared to using common seismic stations. We present here the graphical front-end of SOSEWIN in its usage for different scenarios. It belongs to a management infrastructure based on GIS and database technologies and therefore coupling with existing infrastructures should be simplified. Connecting the domain expert's laptop running the management software with a SOSEWIN may be fulfilled via any arbitrary node in the network (on-site access) or via a gateway node from a remote location using the internet. The scenarios focus on the needs of certain domain experts (seismologists or maybe engineers) and include the planning of a network installation, support during the installation process and testing of this installation. Another scenario mentions monitoring aspects of an already installed network and finally a scenario deals with the visualization of the alarming protocol detecting an earthquake event and issuing an early warning.

Early Warning System of Flood Disaster Based on Ultrasonic Sensors and Wireless Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Indrasari, W.; Iswanto, B. H.; Andayani, M.

2018-04-01

A flood disaster provides considerable losses to the people who live around the river. To mitigate losses of material due to flood disaster required an early warning system of flood disaster. For that reason, it necessary to design a system that provide alert to the people prior the flood disaster. And this paper describes development of a device for early detection system of flood disasters. This device consists of two ultrasonic sensors as a water level detector, and a water flow sensor as a water flow velocity sensor. The wireless technology and GSM is used as an information medium. The system is designed based on water level conditions in the Katulampa Dam, Bogor. Characterization of water level detector showed that the device effectively works in a range of water level of 14-250 cm, with a maximum relative error of 4.3%. Meanwhile the wireless works properly as far as 75 m, and the SMS transmission time is 8.20 second.

The possibility of a tipping point in the Arctic sea ice cover, and associated early-warning signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jastamin Steene, Rebekka

2017-04-01

As the Arctic sea ice has become one of the primer indicators of global climate change, with a seemingly accelerated loss in both ice extent and volume the latest decades, the existence of a tipping point related to the Arctic sea ice cover has been widely debated. Several observed and potential abrupt transitions in the climate system may be interpreted as bifurcations in randomly driven dynamical systems. This means that a system approaching a bifurcation point shifts from one stable state to another, and we say that the system is subject to a critical transition. As the equilibrium states become unstable in the vicinity of a bifurcation point the characteristic relaxation times increases, and the system is said to experience a "critical slowing down". This makes it plausible to observe so called early-warning signals (EWS) when approaching a critical transition. In the Arctic non-linear mechanisms like the temperature response of the ice-albedo feedback can potentially cause a sudden shift to an ice-free Arctic Ocean. Using bifurcation theory and potential analyses we examine time series of observational data of the Arctic sea ice, investigating the possibility of multiple states in the behavior of the ice cover. We further debate whether a shift between states is irreversible, and whether it can be preluded by early-warning signals.

Accuracy and Efficiency of Recording Pediatric Early Warning Scores Using an Electronic Physiological Surveillance System Compared With Traditional Paper-Based Documentation

PubMed Central

Sefton, Gerri; Lane, Steven; Killen, Roger; Black, Stuart; Lyon, Max; Ampah, Pearl; Sproule, Cathryn; Loren-Gosling, Dominic; Richards, Caitlin; Spinty, Jean; Holloway, Colette; Davies, Coral; Wilson, April; Chean, Chung Shen; Carter, Bernie; Carrol, E.D.

2017-01-01

Pediatric Early Warning Scores are advocated to assist health professionals to identify early signs of serious illness or deterioration in hospitalized children. Scores are derived from the weighting applied to recorded vital signs and clinical observations reflecting deviation from a predetermined “norm.” Higher aggregate scores trigger an escalation in care aimed at preventing critical deterioration. Process errors made while recording these data, including plotting or calculation errors, have the potential to impede the reliability of the score. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a controlled study of documentation using five clinical vignettes. We measured the accuracy of vital sign recording, score calculation, and time taken to complete documentation using a handheld electronic physiological surveillance system, VitalPAC Pediatric, compared with traditional paper-based charts. We explored the user acceptability of both methods using a Web-based survey. Twenty-three staff participated in the controlled study. The electronic physiological surveillance system improved the accuracy of vital sign recording, 98.5% versus 85.6%, P < .02, Pediatric Early Warning Score calculation, 94.6% versus 55.7%, P < .02, and saved time, 68 versus 98 seconds, compared with paper-based documentation, P < .002. Twenty-nine staff completed the Web-based survey. They perceived that the electronic physiological surveillance system offered safety benefits by reducing human error while providing instant visibility of recorded data to the entire clinical team. PMID:27832032

Body size shifts and early warning signals precede the historic collapse of whale stocks.

PubMed

Clements, Christopher F; Blanchard, Julia L; Nash, Kirsty L; Hindell, Mark A; Ozgul, Arpat

2017-06-22

Predicting population declines is a key challenge in the face of global environmental change. Abundance-based early warning signals have been shown to precede population collapses; however, such signals are sensitive to the low reliability of abundance estimates. Here, using historical data on whales harvested during the 20th century, we demonstrate that early warning signals can be present not only in the abundance data, but also in the more reliable body size data of wild populations. We show that during the period of commercial whaling, the mean body size of caught whales declined dramatically (by up to 4 m over a 70-year period), leading to early warning signals being detectable up to 40 years before the global collapse of whale stocks. Combining abundance and body size data can reduce the length of the time series required to predict collapse, and decrease the chances of false positive early warning signals.

Cascade reservoir flood control operation based on risk grading and warning in the Upper Yellow River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xuejiao, M.; Chang, J.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

Flood risk reduction with non-engineering measures has become the main idea for flood management. It is more effective for flood risk management to take various non-engineering measures. In this paper, a flood control operation model for cascade reservoirs in the Upper Yellow River was proposed to lower the flood risk of the water system with multi-reservoir by combining the reservoir flood control operation (RFCO) and flood early warning together. Specifically, a discharge control chart was employed to build the joint RFCO simulation model for cascade reservoirs in the Upper Yellow River. And entropy-weighted fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was adopted to establish a multi-factorial risk assessment model for flood warning grade. Furthermore, after determining the implementing mode of countermeasures with future inflow, an intelligent optimization algorithm was used to solve the optimization model for applicable water release scheme. In addition, another model without any countermeasure was set to be a comparative experiment. The results show that the model developed in this paper can further decrease the flood risk of water system with cascade reservoirs. It provides a new approach to flood risk management by coupling flood control operation and flood early warning of cascade reservoirs.

The Accelerometric Networks in Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zulfikar, Can; Alcik, Hakan; Mert, Aydin; Tahtasizoglu, Bahar; Kafadar, Nafiz; Korkmaz, Ahmet; Ozel, Oguz; Erdik, Mustafa

2010-05-01

In recent years several strong motion networks have been established in Istanbul with a preparation purpose for future probable earthquake. This study addresses the introduction of current seismic networks and presentation of some recent results recorded in these networks. Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning System Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning System has ten strong motion stations which were installed as close as possible to Marmara Sea main fault zone. Continuous on-line data from these stations via digital radio modem provide early warning for potentially disastrous earthquakes. Considering the complexity of fault rupture and the short fault distances involved, a simple and robust Early Warning algorithm, based on the exceedance of specified threshold time domain amplitude levels is implemented. The current algorithm compares the band-pass filtered accelerations and the cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) with specified threshold levels. The bracketed CAV window values that will be put into practice are accepted as to be 0.20, 0.40 and 0.70 m/s for three alarm levels, respectively. Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System has one hundred 18 bit-resolution strong motion accelerometers which were placed in quasi-free field locations (basement of small buildings) in the populated areas of the city, within an area of approximately 50x30km, to constitute a network that will enable early damage assessment and rapid response information after a damaging earthquake. Early response information is achieved through fast acquisition and analysis of processed data obtained from the network. The stations are routinely interrogated on regular basis by the main data center. After triggered by an earthquake, each station processes the streaming strong motion data to yield the spectral accelerations at specific periods and sends these parameters in the form of SMS messages at every 20s directly to the main data center through a designated GSM network and through a microwave system. A shake map and damage distribution map (using aggregate building inventories and fragility curves) will then be automatically generated using the algorithm developed for this purpose. Loss assessment studies are complemented by a large citywide digital database on the topography, geology, soil conditions, building, infrastructure and lifeline inventory. The shake and damage maps will be conveyed to the governor's and mayor's offices and army headquarters within 3 minutes using radio modem and GPRS communication. Self Organizing Seismic Early Warning Information Network (SOSEWIN) in Atakoy District SOSEWIN sensors were developed by GFZ and Humbold University as part of SAFER project and EDIM project, and with cooperation of KOERI, the sensors were installed in Atakoy district of Istanbul city with Early Warning purpose. The main features of the SOSEWIN system are each sensing unit is comprised of low-cost components, undertakes its own seismological data processing, analysis and archiving, and its self-organizing capability with wireless mesh network communication. Seismic Network in Important Structures Some of the critical structures located in Istanbul city such as Fatih Sultan Mehmet Suspension Bridge which is connecting Asian and European sides of the city, Hagia Sophia Museum and Suleymaniye Mosque which are historical structures with an age of over 1000 years and 450 years respectively, . Kanyon Tower&Mall, Trakya Elektrik (formerly ENRON) and Isbank Tower (ISKULE) are monitorized to observe their seismic behaviors.

Towards Operational Meteotsunami Early Warning System: the Adriatic Project MESSI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilibic, I.; Sepic, J.; Denamiel, C. L.; Mihanovic, H.; Muslim, S.; Tudor, M.; Ivankovic, D.; Jelavic, D.; Kovacevic, V.; Masce, T.; Dadic, V.; Gacic, M.; Horvath, K.; Monserrat, S.; Rabinovich, A.; Telisman-Prtenjak, M.

2017-12-01

A number of destructive meteotsunamis - atmospherically-driven long ocean waves in a tsunami frequency band - occurred during the last decade through the world oceans. Owing to significant damage caused by these meteotsunamis, several scientific groups (occasionally in collaboration with public offices) have started developing meteotsunami warning systems. Creation of one such system has been initialized in the late 2015 within the MESSI (Meteotsunamis, destructive long ocean waves in the tsunami frequency band: from observations and simulations towards a warning system) project. Main goal of this project is to build a prototype of a meteotsunami warning system for the eastern Adriatic coast. The system will be based on real-time measurements, operational atmosphere and ocean modeling and real time decision-making process. Envisioned MESSI meteotsunami warning system consists of three modules: (1) synoptic warning module, which will use established correlation between forecasted synoptic fields and high-frequency sea level oscillations to provide qualitative meteotsunami forecasts for up to a week in advance, (2) probabilistic premodeling prediction module, which will use operational WRF-ROMS-ADCIRC modeling system and compare the forecast with an atlas of presimulations to get the probabilistic meteotsunami forecast for up to three days in advance, and (3) real-time module, which is based on real time tracking of properties of air pressure disturbance (amplitude, speed, direction, period, ...) and their real-time comparison with the atlas of meteotsunami simulations. System will be tested on recent meteotsunami events which were recorded in the MESSI area shortly after the operational meteotsunami network installation. Albeit complex, such a multilevel warning system has a potential to be adapted to most meteotsunami hot spots, simply by tuning the system parameters to the available atmospheric and ocean data.

Design, characterization, and sensitivity of the supernova trigger system at Daya Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Hanyu; Lebanowski, Logan; Li, Fei; Wang, Zhe; Chen, Shaomin

2016-02-01

Providing an early warning of galactic supernova explosions from neutrino signals is important in studying supernova dynamics and neutrino physics. A dedicated supernova trigger system has been designed and installed in the data acquisition system at Daya Bay and integrated into the worldwide Supernova Early Warning System (SNEWS). Daya Bay's unique feature of eight identically-designed detectors deployed in three separate experimental halls makes the trigger system naturally robust against cosmogenic backgrounds, enabling a prompt analysis of online triggers and a tight control of the false-alert rate. The trigger system is estimated to be fully sensitive to 1987A-type supernova bursts throughout most of the Milky Way. The significant gain in sensitivity of the eight-detector configuration over a mass-equivalent single detector is also estimated. The experience of this online trigger system is applicable to future projects with spatially distributed detectors.

ForWarn Forest Disturbance Change Detection System Provides a Weekly Snapshot of US Forest Conditions to Aid Forest Managers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hargrove, W. W.; Spruce, J.; Kumar, J.; Hoffman, F. M.

2012-12-01

The Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center and Western Wildland Environmental Assessment Center of the USDA Forest Service have collaborated with NASA Stennis Space Center to develop ForWarn, a forest monitoring tool that uses MODIS satellite imagery to produce weekly snapshots of vegetation conditions across the lower 48 United States. Forest and natural resource managers can use ForWarn to rapidly detect, identify, and respond to unexpected changes in the nation's forests caused by insects, diseases, wildfires, severe weather, or other natural or human-caused events. ForWarn detects most types of forest disturbances, including insects, disease, wildfires, frost and ice damage, tornadoes, hurricanes, blowdowns, harvest, urbanization, and landslides. It also detects drought, flood, and temperature effects, and shows early and delayed seasonal vegetation development. Operating continuously since January 2010, results show ForWarn to be a robust and highly capable tool for detecting changes in forest conditions. To help forest and natural resource managers rapidly detect, identify, and respond to unexpected changes in the nation's forests, ForWarn produces sets of national maps showing potential forest disturbances at 231m resolution every 8 days, and posts the results to the web for examination. ForWarn compares current greenness with the "normal," historically seen greenness that would be expected for healthy vegetation for a specific location and time of the year, and then identifies areas appearing less green than expected to provide a strategic national overview of potential forest disturbances that can be used to direct ground and aircraft efforts. In addition to forests, ForWarn also tracks potential disturbances in rangeland vegetation and agriculural crops. ForWarn is the first national-scale system of its kind based on remote sensing developed specifically for forest disturbances. The ForWarn system had an official unveiling and rollout in March 2012, initiated by a joint NASA and USDA press release, and followed by a series of training webinars. Almost 60 early-adopter state and federal forest managers attended at least one of the ForWarn rollout webinars. The ForWarn home page has had 2,632 unique visitors since rollout in March 2012, with 39% returning visits. ForWarn was used to map tornado scars from the historic April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak, and detected timber damage within more than a dozen tornado tracks across northern Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. ForWarn is the result of an ongoing, substantive cooperation among four different government agencies: USDA, NASA, USGS, and DOE. Disturbance maps are available on the web through the ForWarn Change Assessment Viewer at http://forwarn.forestthreats.org/fcav.

Regional Assessment of Storm-triggered Shall Landslide Risks using the SLIDE (SLope-Infiltration-Distributed Equilibrium) Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Y.; Kirschbaum, D. B.; Fukuoka, H.

2011-12-01

The key to advancing the predictability of rainfall-triggered landslides is to use physically based slope-stability models that simulate the dynamical response of the subsurface moisture to spatiotemporal variability of rainfall in complex terrains. An early warning system applying such physical models has been developed to predict rainfall-induced shallow landslides over Java Island in Indonesia and Honduras. The prototyped early warning system integrates three major components: (1) a susceptibility mapping or hotspot identification component based on a land surface geospatial database (topographical information, maps of soil properties, and local landslide inventory etc.); (2) a satellite-based precipitation monitoring system (http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov) and a precipitation forecasting model (i.e. Weather Research Forecast); and (3) a physically-based, rainfall-induced landslide prediction model SLIDE (SLope-Infiltration-Distributed Equilibrium). The system utilizes the modified physical model to calculate a Factor of Safety (FS) that accounts for the contribution of rainfall infiltration and partial saturation to the shear strength of the soil in topographically complex terrains. The system's prediction performance has been evaluated using a local landslide inventory. In Java Island, Indonesia, evaluation of SLIDE modeling results by local news reports shows that the system successfully predicted landslides in correspondence to the time of occurrence of the real landslide events. Further study of SLIDE is implemented in Honduras where Hurricane Mitch triggered widespread landslides in 1998. Results shows within the approximately 1,200 square kilometers study areas, the values of hit rates reached as high as 78% and 75%, while the error indices were 35% and 49%. Despite positive model performance, the SLIDE model is limited in the early warning system by several assumptions including, using general parameter calibration rather than in situ tests and neglecting geologic information. Advantages and limitations of this model will be discussed with respect to future applications of landslide assessment and prediction over large scales. In conclusion, integration of spatially distributed remote sensing precipitation products and in-situ datasets and physical models in this prototype system enable us to further develop a regional early warning tool in the future for forecasting storm-induced landslides.

Future Earth: Reducing Loss By Automating Response to Earthquake Shaking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, R. M.

2014-12-01

Earthquakes pose a significant threat to society in the U.S. and around the world. The risk is easily forgotten given the infrequent recurrence of major damaging events, yet the likelihood of a major earthquake in California in the next 30 years is greater than 99%. As our societal infrastructure becomes ever more interconnected, the potential impacts of these future events are difficult to predict. Yet, the same inter-connected infrastructure also allows us to rapidly detect earthquakes as they begin, and provide seconds, tens or seconds, or a few minutes warning. A demonstration earthquake early warning system is now operating in California and is being expanded to the west coast (www.ShakeAlert.org). In recent earthquakes in the Los Angeles region, alerts were generated that could have provided warning to the vast majority of Los Angelinos who experienced the shaking. Efforts are underway to build a public system. Smartphone technology will be used not only to issue that alerts, but could also be used to collect data, and improve the warnings. The MyShake project at UC Berkeley is currently testing an app that attempts to turn millions of smartphones into earthquake-detectors. As our development of the technology continues, we can anticipate ever-more automated response to earthquake alerts. Already, the BART system in the San Francisco Bay Area automatically stops trains based on the alerts. In the future, elevators will stop, machinery will pause, hazardous materials will be isolated, and self-driving cars will pull-over to the side of the road. In this presentation we will review the current status of the earthquake early warning system in the US. We will illustrate how smartphones can contribute to the system. Finally, we will review applications of the information to reduce future losses.

103. View of transmitter building no. 102, missile warning operation ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

103. View of transmitter building no. 102, missile warning operation center, overall view of center in operation with staff at consoles. Note defcon (defense condition) display panel (upper right) showing "simulated status"activity level. Also note fiber optic display panel at upper right-center. Official photograph BMEWS Project by Hansen 30 September, 1976, clear as negative no. A-14568. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

Accuracy of a pediatric early warning score in the recognition of clinical deterioration.

PubMed

Miranda, Juliana de Oliveira Freitas; Camargo, Climene Laura de; Nascimento, Carlito Lopes; Portela, Daniel Sales; Monaghan, Alan

2017-07-10

to evaluate the accuracy of the version of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score translated and adapted for the Brazilian context, in the recognition of clinical deterioration. a diagnostic test study to measure the accuracy of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, in relation to a reference standard. The sample consisted of 271 children, aged 0 to 10 years, blindly evaluated by a nurse and a physician, specialists in pediatrics, with interval of 5 to 10 minutes between the evaluations, for the application of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context and of the reference standard. The data were processed and analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences and VassarStats.net programs. The performance of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context was evaluated through the indicators of sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, area under the ROC curve, likelihood ratios and post-test probability. the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context showed sensitivity of 73.9%, specificity of 95.5%, positive predictive value of 73.3%, negative predictive value of 94.7%, area under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve of 91.9% and the positive post-test probability was 80%. the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, presented good performance, considered valid for the recognition of clinical deterioration warning signs of the children studied. avaliar a acurácia da versão traduzida e adaptada do Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para o contexto brasileiro, no reconhecimento da deterioração clínica. estudo de teste diagnóstico para medir a acurácia do Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score, para o contexto brasileiro, em relação a um padrão de referência. A amostra foi composta por 271 crianças de 0 a 10 anos, avaliadas de forma cega por uma enfermeira e um médico, especialistas em pediatria, com intervalo de 5 a 10 minutos entre as avaliações, para aplicação do Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score, para o contexto brasileiro e do padrão de referência. Os dados foram processados e analisados nos programas Statistical Package for the Social Sciences e VassarStats.net. O desempenho do Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para o contexto brasileiro foi avaliado por meio dos indicadores de sensibilidade, especificidade, valores preditivos, área sob a curva ROC, razões de probabilidades e probabilidade pós-teste. o Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para o contexto brasileiro apresentou sensibilidade de 73,9%, especificidade de 95,5%, valor preditivo positivo de 73,3%, valor preditivo negativo de 94,7%, área sob a Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve de 91,9% e a probabilidade pós-teste positivo foi de 80%. o Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score, para o contexto brasileiro, apresentou bom desempenho, considerado válido para o reconhecimento de sinais de alerta de deterioração clínica das crianças estudadas. evaluar la precisión de la versión traducida y adaptada del Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para el contexto brasileño, en el reconocimiento de la deterioración clínica. estudio de test diagnóstico para medir la precisión del Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para el contexto brasileño, en relación a un estándar de referencia. La muestra estuvo compuesta por 271 niños de 0 a 10 años, evaluadas de forma ciega por especialistas en pediatría, una enfermera y un médico, con intervalo de 5 a 10 minutos entre las evaluaciones, para aplicación del Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para el contexto brasileño. Los datos fueron procesados y analizados en los programas Statistical Package for the Social Sciences y VassarStats.net. El desempeño del Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para el contexto brasileño fue evaluado por medio de los indicadores de sensibilidad, especificidad, valores predictivos, área debajo de la curva ROC, razones de probabilidades y probabilidad postest. el Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para el contexto brasileño presentó sensibilidad de 73,9%, especificidad de 95,5%, valor predictivo positivo de 73,3%, valor predictivo negativo de 94,7%, área bajo la Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve de 91,9% y la probabilidad postest positivo fue de 80%. el Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para el contexto brasileño, presentó buen desempeño, considerado válido para el reconocimiento de señales de alerta de deterioración clínica de los niños estudiados.

A spatial Bayesian network model to assess the benefits of early warning for urban flood risk to people

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balbi, Stefano; Villa, Ferdinando; Mojtahed, Vahid; Hegetschweiler, Karin Tessa; Giupponi, Carlo

2016-06-01

This article presents a novel methodology to assess flood risk to people by integrating people's vulnerability and ability to cushion hazards through coping and adapting. The proposed approach extends traditional risk assessments beyond material damages; complements quantitative and semi-quantitative data with subjective and local knowledge, improving the use of commonly available information; and produces estimates of model uncertainty by providing probability distributions for all of its outputs. Flood risk to people is modeled using a spatially explicit Bayesian network model calibrated on expert opinion. Risk is assessed in terms of (1) likelihood of non-fatal physical injury, (2) likelihood of post-traumatic stress disorder and (3) likelihood of death. The study area covers the lower part of the Sihl valley (Switzerland) including the city of Zurich. The model is used to estimate the effect of improving an existing early warning system, taking into account the reliability, lead time and scope (i.e., coverage of people reached by the warning). Model results indicate that the potential benefits of an improved early warning in terms of avoided human impacts are particularly relevant in case of a major flood event.

Potential economic value of drought information to support early warning in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiroga, S.; Iglesias, A.; Diz, A.; Garrote, L.

2012-04-01

We present a methodology to estimate the economic value of advanced climate information for food production in Africa under climate change scenarios. The results aim to facilitate better choices in water resources management. The methodology includes 4 sequential steps. First two contrasting management strategies (with and without early warning) are defined. Second, the associated impacts of the management actions are estimated by calculating the effect of drought in crop productivity under climate change scenarios. Third, the optimal management option is calculated as a function of the drought information and risk aversion of potential information users. Finally we use these optimal management simulations to compute the economic value of enhanced water allocation rules to support stable food production in Africa. Our results show how a timely response to climate variations can help reduce loses in food production. The proposed framework is developed within the Dewfora project (Early warning and forecasting systems to predict climate related drought vulnerability and risk in Africa) that aims to improve the knowledge on drought forecasting, warning and mitigation, and advance the understanding of climate related vulnerability to drought and to develop a prototype operational forecasting.

Integrating real-time subsurface hydrologic monitoring with empirical rainfall thresholds to improve landslide early warning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mirus, Benjamin B.; Becker, Rachel E.; Baum, Rex L.; Smith, Joel B.

2018-01-01

Early warning for rainfall-induced shallow landsliding can help reduce fatalities and economic losses. Although these commonly occurring landslides are typically triggered by subsurface hydrological processes, most early warning criteria rely exclusively on empirical rainfall thresholds and other indirect proxies for subsurface wetness. We explore the utility of explicitly accounting for antecedent wetness by integrating real-time subsurface hydrologic measurements into landslide early warning criteria. Our efforts build on previous progress with rainfall thresholds, monitoring, and numerical modeling along the landslide-prone railway corridor between Everett and Seattle, Washington, USA. We propose a modification to a previously established recent versus antecedent (RA) cumulative rainfall thresholds by replacing the antecedent 15-day rainfall component with an average saturation observed over the same timeframe. We calculate this antecedent saturation with real-time telemetered measurements from five volumetric water content probes installed in the shallow subsurface within a steep vegetated hillslope. Our hybrid rainfall versus saturation (RS) threshold still relies on the same recent 3-day rainfall component as the existing RA thresholds, to facilitate ready integration with quantitative precipitation forecasts. During the 2015–2017 monitoring period, this RS hybrid approach has an increase of true positives and a decrease of false positives and false negatives relative to the previous RA rainfall-only thresholds. We also demonstrate that alternative hybrid threshold formats could be even more accurate, which suggests that further development and testing during future landslide seasons is needed. The positive results confirm that accounting for antecedent wetness conditions with direct subsurface hydrologic measurements can improve thresholds for alert systems and early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landsliding.

[Assessment and early warning of land ecological security in rapidly urbanizing coastal area: A case study of Caofeidian new district, Hebei, China].

PubMed

Zhang, Li; Chen, Ying; Wang, Shu-tao; Men, Ming-xin; Xu, Hao

2015-08-01

Assessment and early warning of land ecological security (LES) in rapidly urbanizing coastal area is an important issue to ensure sustainable land use and effective maintenance of land ecological security. In this study, an index system for the land ecological security of Caofeidian new district was established based on the Pressure-State-Response (P-S-R) model. Initial assessment units of 1 km x 1 km created with the remote sensing data and GIS methods were spatially interpolated to a fine pixel size of 30 m x 30 m, which were combined with the early warning method (using classification tree method) to evaluate the land ecological security of Caofeidian in 2005 and 2013. The early warning level was classed into four categories: security with degradation potential, sub-security with slow degradation, sub-security with rapid degradation, and insecurity. Result indicated that, from 2005 to 2013, the average LES of Caofeidian dropped from 0.55 to 0.52, indicating a degradation of land ecological security from medium security level to medium-low security level. The areas at the levels of insecurity with rapid degradation were mainly located in the rapid urbanization areas, illustrating that rapid expansion of urban construction land was the key factor to the deterioration of the regional land ecological security. Industrial District, Shilihai town and Nanpu saltern, in which the lands at the levels of insecurity and sub-security with rapid degradation or slow degradation accounted for 58.3%, 98.9% and 81.2% of their respective districts, were at the stage of high early warning. Thus, land ecological security regulation for these districts should be strengthened in near future. The study could provide a reference for land use planning and ecological protection of Caofeidian new district.

The Effectiveness of Reverse Telephon Emergency Warning Systems in the October 2007 San Diego Wildfires

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sorensen, John H; Sorensen, Barbara Vogt

2009-01-01

Late in October, 2007, fast-moving wildfires fueled by extreme Santa Ana winds threatened residents and their properties in San Diego County, California. The impacted area also included the City of San Diego within the County s boundaries. It turns out the San Diego firestorms would be the biggest in the County's history, surpassing the devastating 2003 firestorms in intensity, duration, and impacted populations. Both San Diego County and the City of San Diego have installed telephone reverse call-down emergency warning systems. A telephone survey of 1200 households located in areas identified by emergency officials as the evacuation zones for themore » 2007 fires was conducted in late March and early April 2008 using a random telephone dialing process to determine if people responded to the reverse telephone warning systems calls. Findings indicate that those who received a reverse emergency warning call were much more likely to evacuate than those who did not receive a call. The telephone calls were also the most likely source of first warning.« less

Study of Water Pollution Early Warning Framework Based on Internet of Things

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chengfang, H.; Xiao, X.; Dingtao, S.; Bo, C.; Xiongfei, W.

2016-06-01

In recent years, with the increasing world environmental pollution happening, sudden water pollution incident has become more and more frequently in China. It has posed a serious threat to water safety of the people living in the water source area. Conventional water pollution monitoring method is manual periodic testing, it maybe miss the best time to find that pollution incident. This paper proposes a water pollution warning framework to change this state. On the basis of the Internet of things, we uses automatic water quality monitoring technology to realize monitoring. We calculate the monitoring data with water pollution model to judge whether the water pollution incident is happen or not. Water pollution warning framework is divided into three layers: terminal as the sensing layer, it with the deployment of the automatic water quality pollution monitoring sensor. The middle layer is the transfer network layer, data information implementation is based on GPRS wireless network transmission. The upper one is the application layer. With these application systems, early warning information of water pollution will realize the high-speed transmission between grassroots units and superior units. The paper finally gives an example that applying this pollution warning framework to water quality monitoring of Beijing, China, it greatly improves the speed of the pollution warning responding of Beijing.

Influence of warning information changes on emergency response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heisterkamp, Tobias; Ulbrich, Uwe; Glade, Thomas; Tetzlaff, Gerd

2014-05-01

Mitigation and risk reduction of natural hazards is significantly related to the possibility of predicting the actual event. Some hazards can already be forecasted several days in advance. For these hazards, early warning systems have been developed, installed and improved over the years. The formation of winter storms for example can be recognized up to one week before they pass through Central Europe. This relative long early warning time has the advantage that forecasters can concretise the warnings over time. Therefore, warnings can even be adapted to alternating conditions within the process, the observation or changes in its modelling. Emergency managers are one group of warning recipients in the civil protection sector. They have to prepare or initiate prevention or response measures at a specific point of time, depending on the required lead time of the referring actions. At this point of time already, the forecast and its equivalent warning, has to be assumed as a stage of reality, hence the decision-makers have to come to a conclusion. These decisions are based on spatial and temporal knowledge of the forecasted event and the consequential situation of risk. With incoming warning updates, the detailed status of information is permanently being alternated. Consequently, decisions can be influenced by the development of the warning situation and the inherent tendency before a certain point of time. They can also be adapted to updates later on, according to the changing 'decision reality'. The influence of these dynamic hazard situations on operational planning and response by emergency managers is investigated in case studies on winter storms for Berlin, Germany. Therefore, the issued warnings by the weather service and data of operation of Berlin Fire Brigades are analysed and compared. This presentation shows and discusses first results.

Atmospheric 7Be Concentration Changes as a Possible New Indicator for Early Warning on Indian Monsoon Onset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terzi, L.; Kalinowski, M.; Schoeppner, M.; kusmierczyk-michulec, J.

2017-12-01

With 80 radionuclide detector systems worldwide, the International Monitoring System (IMS) offers an unprecedented opportunity to use 7Be as an aerosol tracer for global atmospheric cell dynamics. Meteorological processes such as ENSO onset, ITCZ shift, location and progression of Hadley-Ferrel cell convergence zone (HFCZ) have been reconstructed using long term timeseries of ground based 7Be observations. Cross correlation of 7Be activity concentrations also demonstrated to serve as an early warning indicator for Indian monsoons showing a possible 30-day warning prior to monsoon onset (Terzi and Kalinowski, 2017). Here we present what role phenomena that we can observe with 7Be, namely ITCZ and HFCZ, play in monsoon formation and how the prediction of monsoon onset relates to ENSO prediction. Performance, lead time and reliability of 7Be as monsoon onset indicator are then compared to current meteorological indicators. Near surface 7Be activity concentrations may help address outstanding challenges in monsoon research by integrating a new perspective across disciplines.

Neonatal Early Warning Tools for recognising and responding to clinical deterioration in neonates cared for in the maternity setting: A retrospective case-control study.

PubMed

Paliwoda, Michelle; New, Karen; Bogossian, Fiona

2016-09-01

All newborns are at risk of deterioration as a result of failing to make the transition to extra uterine life. Signs of deterioration can be subtle and easily missed. It has been postulated that the use of an Early Warning Tool may assist clinicians in recognising and responding to signs of deterioration earlier in neonates, thereby preventing a serious adverse event. To examine whether observations from a Standard Observation Tool, applied to three neonatal Early Warning Tools, would hypothetically trigger an escalation of care more frequently than actual escalation of care using the Standard Observation Tool. A retrospective case-control study. A maternity unit in a tertiary public hospital in Australia. Neonates born in 2013 of greater than or equal to 34(+0) weeks gestation, admitted directly to the maternity ward from their birthing location and whose subsequent deterioration required admission to the neonatal unit, were identified as cases from databases of the study hospital. Each case was matched with three controls, inborn during the same period and who did not experience deterioration and neonatal unit admission. Clinical and physiological data recorded on a Standard Observation Tool, from time of admission to the maternity ward, for cases and controls were charted onto each of three Early Warning Tools. The primary outcome was whether the tool 'triggered an escalation of care'. Descriptive statistics (n, %, Mean and SD) were employed. Cases (n=26) comprised late preterm, early term and post-term neonates and matched by gestational age group with 3 controls (n=78). Overall, the Standard Observation Tool triggered an escalation of care for 92.3% of cases compared to the Early Warning Tools; New South Wales Health 80.8%, United Kingdom Newborn Early Warning Chart 57.7% and The Australian Capital Territory Neonatal Early Warning Score 11.5%. Subgroup analysis by gestational age found differences between the tools in hypothetically triggering an escalation of care. The Standard Observation Tool triggered an escalation of care more frequently than the Early Warning Tools, which may be as a result of behavioural data captured on the Standard Observation Tool and escalated, which could not be on the Early Warning Tools. Findings demonstrate that a single tool applied to all gestational age ranges may not be effective in identifying early deterioration or may over trigger an escalation of care. Further research is required into the sensitivity and specificity of Early Warning Tools in neonatal sub-populations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preliminary numerical simulations of the 27 February 2010 Chile tsunami: first results and hints in a tsunami early warning perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinti, S.; Tonini, R.; Armigliato, A.; Zaniboni, F.; Pagnoni, G.; Gallazzi, Sara; Bressan, Lidia

2010-05-01

The tsunamigenic earthquake (M 8.8) that occurred offshore central Chile on 27 February 2010 can be classified as a typical subduction-zone earthquake. The effects of the ensuing tsunami have been devastating along the Chile coasts, and especially between the cities of Valparaiso and Talcahuano, and in the Juan Fernandez islands. The tsunami propagated across the entire Pacific Ocean, hitting with variable intensity almost all the coasts facing the basin. While the far-field propagation was quite well tracked almost in real-time by the warning centres and reasonably well reproduced by the forecast models, the toll of lives and the severity of the damage caused by the tsunami in the near-field occurred with no local alert nor warning and sadly confirms that the protection of the communities placed close to the tsunami sources is still an unresolved problem in the tsunami early warning field. The purpose of this study is two-fold. On one side we perform numerical simulations of the tsunami starting from different earthquake models which we built on the basis of the preliminary seismic parameters (location, magnitude and focal mechanism) made available by the seismological agencies immediately after the event, or retrieved from more detailed and refined studies published online in the following days and weeks. The comparison with the available records of both offshore DART buoys and coastal tide-gauges is used to put some preliminary constraints on the best-fitting fault model. The numerical simulations are performed by means of the finite-difference code UBO-TSUFD, developed and maintained by the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna, Italy, which can solve both the linear and non-linear versions of the shallow-water equations on nested grids. The second purpose of this study is to use the conclusions drawn in the previous part in a tsunami early warning perspective. In the framework of the EU-funded project DEWS (Distant Early Warning System), we will try to give some clues for discussion on the deficiencies of the existing tsunami early warning concepts as regards the warning to the areas which are found close to the tsunami source, and on the strategies that should be followed in the near future in order to make significant progress in the protection and safeguarding of local communities.

Brief communication: Using averaged soil moisture estimates to improve the performances of a regional-scale landslide early warning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Segoni, Samuele; Rosi, Ascanio; Lagomarsino, Daniela; Fanti, Riccardo; Casagli, Nicola

2018-03-01

We communicate the results of a preliminary investigation aimed at improving a state-of-the-art RSLEWS (regional-scale landslide early warning system) based on rainfall thresholds by integrating mean soil moisture values averaged over the territorial units of the system. We tested two approaches. The simplest can be easily applied to improve other RSLEWS: it is based on a soil moisture threshold value under which rainfall thresholds are not used because landslides are not expected to occur. Another approach deeply modifies the original RSLEWS: thresholds based on antecedent rainfall accumulated over long periods are substituted with soil moisture thresholds. A back analysis demonstrated that both approaches consistently reduced false alarms, while the second approach reduced missed alarms as well.

Regional early flood warning system: design and implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, L. C.; Yang, S. N.; Kuo, C. L.; Wang, Y. F.

2017-12-01

This study proposes a prototype of the regional early flood inundation warning system in Tainan City, Taiwan. The AI technology is used to forecast multi-step-ahead regional flood inundation maps during storm events. The computing time is only few seconds that leads to real-time regional flood inundation forecasting. A database is built to organize data and information for building real-time forecasting models, maintaining the relations of forecasted points, and displaying forecasted results, while real-time data acquisition is another key task where the model requires immediately accessing rain gauge information to provide forecast services. All programs related database are constructed in Microsoft SQL Server by using Visual C# to extracting real-time hydrological data, managing data, storing the forecasted data and providing the information to the visual map-based display. The regional early flood inundation warning system use the up-to-date Web technologies driven by the database and real-time data acquisition to display the on-line forecasting flood inundation depths in the study area. The friendly interface includes on-line sequentially showing inundation area by Google Map, maximum inundation depth and its location, and providing KMZ file download of the results which can be watched on Google Earth. The developed system can provide all the relevant information and on-line forecast results that helps city authorities to make decisions during typhoon events and make actions to mitigate the losses.

Satellite Data Aid Monitoring of Nation's Forests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2014-01-01

The USDA Forest Service’s Asheville, North Carolina-based Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center and Prineville, Oregon-based Western Wildlands Environmental Threat Assessment Center partnered with Stennis Space Center and other agencies to create an early warning system to identify, characterize, and track disturbances from potential forest threats. The result was ForWarn, which is now being used by federal and state forest and natural resource managers.

Early warning and response system (EWARS) for dengue outbreaks: Recent advancements towards widespread applications in critical settings

PubMed Central

Kroeger, Axel; Olliaro, Piero; Rocklöv, Joacim; Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo; Tejeda, Gustavo; Benitez, David; Gill, Balvinder; Hakim, S. Lokman; Gomes Carvalho, Roberta; Bowman, Leigh; Petzold, Max

2018-01-01

Background Dengue outbreaks are increasing in frequency over space and time, affecting people’s health and burdening resource-constrained health systems. The ability to detect early emerging outbreaks is key to mounting an effective response. The early warning and response system (EWARS) is a toolkit that provides countries with early-warning systems for efficient and cost-effective local responses. EWARS uses outbreak and alarm indicators to derive prediction models that can be used prospectively to predict a forthcoming dengue outbreak at district level. Methods We report on the development of the EWARS tool, based on users’ recommendations into a convenient, user-friendly and reliable software aided by a user’s workbook and its field testing in 30 health districts in Brazil, Malaysia and Mexico. Findings 34 Health officers from the 30 study districts who had used the original EWARS for 7 to 10 months responded to a questionnaire with mainly open-ended questions. Qualitative content analysis showed that participants were generally satisfied with the tool but preferred open-access vs. commercial software. EWARS users also stated that the geographical unit should be the district, while access to meteorological information should be improved. These recommendations were incorporated into the second-generation EWARS-R, using the free R software, combined with recent surveillance data and resulted in higher sensitivities and positive predictive values of alarm signals compared to the first-generation EWARS. Currently the use of satellite data for meteorological information is being tested and a dashboard is being developed to increase user-friendliness of the tool. The inclusion of other Aedes borne viral diseases is under discussion. Conclusion EWARS is a pragmatic and useful tool for detecting imminent dengue outbreaks to trigger early response activities. PMID:29727447

Signature-forecasting and early outbreak detection system

PubMed Central

Naumova, Elena N.; MacNeill, Ian B.

2008-01-01

SUMMARY Daily disease monitoring via a public health surveillance system provides valuable information on population risks. Efficient statistical tools for early detection of rapid changes in the disease incidence are a must for modern surveillance. The need for statistical tools for early detection of outbreaks that are not based on historical information is apparent. A system is discussed for monitoring cases of infections with a view to early detection of outbreaks and to forecasting the extent of detected outbreaks. We propose a set of adaptive algorithms for early outbreak detection that does not rely on extensive historical recording. We also include knowledge of infection disease epidemiology into forecasts. To demonstrate this system we use data from the largest water-borne outbreak of cryptosporidiosis, which occurred in Milwaukee in 1993. Historical data are smoothed using a loess-type smoother. Upon receipt of a new datum, the smoothing is updated and estimates are made of the first two derivatives of the smooth curve, and these are used for near-term forecasting. Recent data and the near-term forecasts are used to compute a color-coded warning index, which quantify the level of concern. The algorithms for computing the warning index have been designed to balance Type I errors (false prediction of an epidemic) and Type II errors (failure to correctly predict an epidemic). If the warning index signals a sufficiently high probability of an epidemic, then a forecast of the possible size of the outbreak is made. This longer term forecast is made by fitting a ‘signature’ curve to the available data. The effectiveness of the forecast depends upon the extent to which the signature curve captures the shape of outbreaks of the infection under consideration. PMID:18716671

Early warning and response system (EWARS) for dengue outbreaks: Recent advancements towards widespread applications in critical settings.

PubMed

Hussain-Alkhateeb, Laith; Kroeger, Axel; Olliaro, Piero; Rocklöv, Joacim; Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo; Tejeda, Gustavo; Benitez, David; Gill, Balvinder; Hakim, S Lokman; Gomes Carvalho, Roberta; Bowman, Leigh; Petzold, Max

2018-01-01

Dengue outbreaks are increasing in frequency over space and time, affecting people's health and burdening resource-constrained health systems. The ability to detect early emerging outbreaks is key to mounting an effective response. The early warning and response system (EWARS) is a toolkit that provides countries with early-warning systems for efficient and cost-effective local responses. EWARS uses outbreak and alarm indicators to derive prediction models that can be used prospectively to predict a forthcoming dengue outbreak at district level. We report on the development of the EWARS tool, based on users' recommendations into a convenient, user-friendly and reliable software aided by a user's workbook and its field testing in 30 health districts in Brazil, Malaysia and Mexico. 34 Health officers from the 30 study districts who had used the original EWARS for 7 to 10 months responded to a questionnaire with mainly open-ended questions. Qualitative content analysis showed that participants were generally satisfied with the tool but preferred open-access vs. commercial software. EWARS users also stated that the geographical unit should be the district, while access to meteorological information should be improved. These recommendations were incorporated into the second-generation EWARS-R, using the free R software, combined with recent surveillance data and resulted in higher sensitivities and positive predictive values of alarm signals compared to the first-generation EWARS. Currently the use of satellite data for meteorological information is being tested and a dashboard is being developed to increase user-friendliness of the tool. The inclusion of other Aedes borne viral diseases is under discussion. EWARS is a pragmatic and useful tool for detecting imminent dengue outbreaks to trigger early response activities.

Early Warning Systems Assure Safe Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greenhalgh, John

1973-01-01

Fairfield, Connecticut, public schools are protected by an automatic fire detection system covering every area of every building through an electric monitor. An intrusion alarm system that relies primarily on pulsed infra-red beams protects the plant investment. (Author/MF)

Focus Upon Implementing the GGOS Decadal Vision for Geohazards Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LaBrecque, John; Stangl, Gunter

2017-04-01

The Global Geodetic Observing System of the IAG identified present and future roles for Geodesy in the development and well being of the global society. The GGOS is focused upon the development of infrastructure, information, analysis, and educational systems to advance the International Global Reference Frame, the International Celestial Reference System, the International Height Reference System, atmospheric dynamics, sea level change and geohazards monitoring. The geohazards initiative is guided by an eleven nation working group initially focused upon the development and integration of regional multi-GNSS networks and analysis systems for earthquake and tsunami early warning. The opportunities and challenges being addressed by the Geohazards working group include regional network design, algorithm development and implementation, communications, funding, and international agreements on data access. This presentation will discuss in further detail these opportunities and challenges for the GGOS focus upon earthquake and tsunami early warning.

A new prototype system for earthquake early warning in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsiao, N.; Wu, Y.; Chen, D.; Kuo, K.; Shin, T.

2009-12-01

Earthquake early warning (EEW) system has already been developed and tested in Taiwan for more than ten years. With the implementation of a real-time strong-motion network by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB), a virtual sub-network (VSN) system based on regional early warning approach was utilized at the first attempt. In order to shorten the processing time, seismic waveforms in a 10-sec time window starting from the first P-wave arrival time at the nearest station are used to determine the hypocenter and earthquake magnitude which is dubbed ML10. Since 2001, this EEW system has responded to a total of 255 events with magnitude greater than 4.5 occurred inland or off the coast of Taiwan. The system is capable of issuing an earthquake report within 20 sec of its occurrence with good magnitude estimations for events up to magnitude 6.5. This will provide early warning for metropolitan areas located 70 km away from the epicentre. In the latest development, a new prototype EEW system based on P-wave method was developed. Instead of ML10, we adopt the “Pd magnitude”, MPd, as our magnitude indicator in the new system. Pd is defined as the peak amplitude of the initial P-wave displacement. In the previous studies, by analyzing the Pd attenuation relationship with earthquake magnitudes, Pd was proved to be a good magnitude estimator for EEW purpose. Therefore, we adopt the Pd magnitude in developing our next generation EEW system. The new system is designed and constructed based on the Central Weather Bureau Seismographic Network (CWBSN). The CWBSN is a real-time seismographic network with more than one hundred digital telemetered seismic stations distributed over the entire Taiwan. Currently, there are three types of seismic instruments installed at the stations, either co-site or separately installed, including short-period seismographs, accelerometers, and broadband instruments. For the need of integral data processing, we use the Earthworm system as a common platform to integrate all real-time signals. In the process, strong-motion and broadband signals are used for automatic P-wave arrival time and Pd determination. However, short-period signals are only used for P-wave arrival time picking. This new system is still under development and being improved, with the hope of replacing the current operational EEW system in the future.

The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) adaption in National Early Warning Alerting Systems of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chao

2017-04-01

The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) [1] is an XML-based data format for exchanging public warnings and emergencies between alerting technologies. In China, from local communities to entire nations, there was a patchwork of specialized hazard public alerting systems. And each system was often designed just for certain emergency situations and for certain communications media. Application took place in the NEWAS (National Early Warning Alerting Systems) [2]project where CAP serves as central message to integrate all kind of hazard situations, including the natural calamity, accident disaster, public health emergency , social safety etc. Officially operated on May 2015, NEWAS now has completed docking work with 14 departments including civil administration, safety supervision, forestry, land, water conservancy, earthquake, traffic, meteorology, agriculture, tourism, food and drug supervision, public security and oceanic administration. Thus, several items in CAP has been modified, redefined and extended according to the various grading standards and publishing strategies, as well as the characteristics of Chinese Geocoding. NEWAS successfully delivers information to end users through 4 levels (i.e. State, province, prefecture and county) structure and by various means. [1] CAP, http://www.oasis-emergency.org/cap [2] http://www.12379.cn/

Capturing early signs of deterioration: the dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score and its value in the Rapid Response System.

PubMed

Douw, Gooske; Huisman-de Waal, Getty; van Zanten, Arthur R H; van der Hoeven, Johannes G; Schoonhoven, Lisette

2017-09-01

To determine the predictive value of individual and combined dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score indicators at various Early Warning Score levels, differentiating between Early Warning Scores reaching the trigger threshold to call a rapid response team and Early Warning Score levels not reaching this point. Dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score comprises nine indicators underlying nurses' 'worry' about a patient's condition. All indicators independently show significant association with unplanned intensive care/high dependency unit admission or unexpected mortality. Prediction of this outcome improved by adding the dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score indicators to an Early Warning Score based on vital signs. An observational cohort study was conducted on three surgical wards in a tertiary university-affiliated teaching hospital. Included were surgical, native-speaking, adult patients. Nurses scored presence of 'worry' and/or dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score indicators every shift or when worried. Vital signs were measured according to the prevailing protocol. Unplanned intensive care/high dependency unit admission or unexpected mortality was the composite endpoint. Percentages of 'worry' and dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score indicators were calculated at various Early Warning Score levels in control and event groups. Entering all dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score indicators in a multiple logistic regression analysis, we calculated a weighted score and calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predicted value and negative predicted value for each possible total score. In 3522 patients, 102 (2·9%) had an unplanned intensive care/high dependency unit admissions (n = 97) or unexpected mortality (n = 5). Patients with such events and only slightly changed vital signs had significantly higher percentages of 'worry' and dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score indicators expressed than patients in the control group. Increasing number of dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score indicators showed higher positive predictive values. Dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score indicators alert in an early stage of deterioration, before reaching the trigger threshold to call a rapid response team and can improve interdisciplinary communication on surgical wards during regular rounds, and when calling for assistance. Dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score structures communication and recording of signs known to be associated with a decline in a patient's condition and can empower nurses to call assistance on the 'worry' criterion in an early stage of deterioration. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Informing climate change adaptation with insights from famine early warning (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.

2010-12-01

Famine early warning systems provide a unique viewpoint for understanding the implications of climate change on food security, identifying the locations and seasons where millions of food insecure people are dependent upon climate-sensitive agricultural systems. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is a decision support system sponsored by the Office of Food for Peace of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which distributes over two billion dollars of food aid to more than 40 countries each year. FEWS NET identifies the times and places where food aid is required by the most climatically sensitive and consequently food insecure populations of the developing world. As result, FEWS NET has developed its own "climate service", implemented by USGS, NOAA, and NASA, to support its decision making processes. The foundation of this climate service is the monitoring of current growing conditions for early identification of agricultural drought that might impact food security. Since station networks are sparse in the countries monitored, FEWS NET has a tradition (dating back to 1985) of reliance on satellite remote sensing of vegetation and rainfall. In the last ten years, climate forecasts have become an additional tool for food security assessment, extending the early warning perspective to include expected agricultural outcomes for the season ahead. More recently, research has expanded to include detailed analyses of recent observed climate trends, combined with diagnostic ocean-atmosphere studies. These studies are then used to develop interpretations of GCM scenarios and their implications for future patterns of precipitation and temperature, revealing trends towards warmer/drier climate conditions and increases in the relative frequency of drought. In some regions, like Eastern Africa, such changes seem to be already occurring, with an associated increase in food insecurity. Sub-national analyses for Kenya, for example, point to the need for adaptation through improved agricultural practices, so that increased yields can offset the impacts of rising temperatures and declining rainfall. Future work will focus on assessing temperature-PET linkages, and evaluating pathways for agricultural development.

Using internet search queries for infectious disease surveillance: screening diseases for suitability.

PubMed

Milinovich, Gabriel J; Avril, Simon M R; Clements, Archie C A; Brownstein, John S; Tong, Shilu; Hu, Wenbiao

2014-12-31

Internet-based surveillance systems provide a novel approach to monitoring infectious diseases. Surveillance systems built on internet data are economically, logistically and epidemiologically appealing and have shown significant promise. The potential for these systems has increased with increased internet availability and shifts in health-related information seeking behaviour. This approach to monitoring infectious diseases has, however, only been applied to single or small groups of select diseases. This study aims to systematically investigate the potential for developing surveillance and early warning systems using internet search data, for a wide range of infectious diseases. Official notifications for 64 infectious diseases in Australia were downloaded and correlated with frequencies for 164 internet search terms for the period 2009-13 using Spearman's rank correlations. Time series cross correlations were performed to assess the potential for search terms to be used in construction of early warning systems. Notifications for 17 infectious diseases (26.6%) were found to be significantly correlated with a selected search term. The use of internet metrics as a means of surveillance has not previously been described for 12 (70.6%) of these diseases. The majority of diseases identified were vaccine-preventable, vector-borne or sexually transmissible; cross correlations, however, indicated that vector-borne and vaccine preventable diseases are best suited for development of early warning systems. The findings of this study suggest that internet-based surveillance systems have broader applicability to monitoring infectious diseases than has previously been recognised. Furthermore, internet-based surveillance systems have a potential role in forecasting emerging infectious disease events, especially for vaccine-preventable and vector-borne diseases.

Concept, Implementation and Testing of PRESTo: Real-time experimentation in Southern Italy and worldwide applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zollo, Aldo; Emolo, Antonio; Festa, Gaetano; Picozzi, Matteo; Elia, Luca; Martino, Claudio; Colombelli, Simona; Brondi, Piero; Caruso, Alessandro

2016-04-01

The past two decades have witnessed a huge progress in the development, implementation and testing of Earthquakes Early Warning Systems (EEWS) worldwide, as the result of a joint effort of the seismological and earthquake engineering communities to set up robust and efficient methodologies for the real-time seismic risk mitigation. This work presents an overview of the worldwide applications of the system PRESTo (PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem), which is the highly configurable and easily portable platform for Earthquake Early Warning developed by the RISSCLab group of the University of Naples Federico II. In particular, we first present the results of the real-time experimentation of PRESTo in Suthern Italy on the data streams of the Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet), in Southern Italy. ISNet is a dense high-dynamic range, earthquake observing system, which operates in true real-time mode, thanks to a mixed data transmission system based on proprietary digital terrestrial links, standard ADSL and UMTS technologies. Using the seedlink protocol data are transferred to the network center unit, running the software platform PRESTo which is devoted to process the real-time data streaming, estimate source parameters and issue the alert. The software platform PRESTo uses a P-wave, network-based approach which has evolved and improved during the time since its first release. In its original version consisted in a series of modules, aimed at the event detection/picking, probabilistic real-time earthquake location and magnitude estimation, prediction of peak ground motion at distant sites through ground motion prediction equations for the area. In the recent years, PRESTo has been also implemented at the accelerometric and broad-band seismic networks in South Korea, Romania, North-East Italy, and Turkey and off-line tested in Iberian Peninsula, Israel, and Japan. Moreover, the feasibility of a PRESTo-based, EEWS at national scale in Italy, has been tested by evaluating its performance for the Italian Accelerometric Network. These testing experiments and the EEWS performance results will be summarized in the near-future perspective of building the next generation of early warning systems.

Pediatric Rapid Response Team: Vital Sign Based System vs. Pediatric Early Warning Score System

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-09-16

quality improvement initiative using the evidence-based PEWS criteria to improve recognition of deteriorating pediatric patients, allocation of PRRT resources, and pediatric staff satisfaction regarding the PRRT process.

How to select a proper early warning threshold to detect infectious disease outbreaks based on the China infectious disease automated alert and response system (CIDARS).

PubMed

Wang, Ruiping; Jiang, Yonggen; Michael, Engelgau; Zhao, Genming

2017-06-12

China Centre for Diseases Control and Prevention (CDC) developed the China Infectious Disease Automated Alert and Response System (CIDARS) in 2005. The CIDARS was used to strengthen infectious disease surveillance and aid in the early warning of outbreak. The CIDARS has been integrated into the routine outbreak monitoring efforts of the CDC at all levels in China. Early warning threshold is crucial for outbreak detection in the CIDARS, but CDCs at all level are currently using thresholds recommended by the China CDC, and these recommended thresholds have recognized limitations. Our study therefore seeks to explore an operational method to select the proper early warning threshold according to the epidemic features of local infectious diseases. The data used in this study were extracted from the web-based Nationwide Notifiable Infectious Diseases Reporting Information System (NIDRIS), and data for infectious disease cases were organized by calendar week (1-52) and year (2009-2015) in Excel format; Px was calculated using a percentile-based moving window (moving window [5 week*5 year], x), where x represents one of 12 centiles (0.40, 0.45, 0.50….0.95). Outbreak signals for the 12 Px were calculated using the moving percentile method (MPM) based on data from the CIDARS. When the outbreak signals generated by the 'mean + 2SD' gold standard were in line with a Px generated outbreak signal for each week during the year of 2014, this Px was then defined as the proper threshold for the infectious disease. Finally, the performance of new selected thresholds for each infectious disease was evaluated by simulated outbreak signals based on 2015 data. Six infectious diseases were selected in this study (chickenpox, mumps, hand foot and mouth diseases (HFMD), scarlet fever, influenza and rubella). Proper thresholds for chickenpox (P75), mumps (P80), influenza (P75), rubella (P45), HFMD (P75), and scarlet fever (P80) were identified. The selected proper thresholds for these 6 infectious diseases could detect almost all simulated outbreaks within a shorter time period compared to thresholds recommended by the China CDC. It is beneficial to select the proper early warning threshold to detect infectious disease aberrations based on characteristics and epidemic features of local diseases in the CIDARS.

Operational Remote Sensing Services in North Eastern Region of India for Natural Resources Management, Early Warning for Disaster Risk Reduction and Dissemination of Information and Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raju, P. L. N.; Sarma, K. K.; Barman, D.; Handique, B. K.; Chutia, D.; Kundu, S. S.; Das, R. Kr.; Chakraborty, K.; Das, R.; Goswami, J.; Das, P.; Devi, H. S.; Nongkynrih, J. M.; Bhusan, K.; Singh, M. S.; Singh, P. S.; Saikhom, V.; Goswami, C.; Pebam, R.; Borgohain, A.; Gogoi, R. B.; Singh, N. R.; Bharali, A.; Sarma, D.; Lyngdoh, R. B.; Mandal, P. P.; Chabukdhara, M.

2016-06-01

North Eastern Region (NER) of India comprising of eight states considered to be most unique and one of the most challenging regions to govern due to its unique physiographic condition, rich biodiversity, disaster prone and diverse socio-economic characteristics. Operational Remote Sensing services increased manifolds in the region with the establishment of North Eastern Space Applications Centre (NESAC) in the year 2000. Since inception, NESAC has been providing remote sensing services in generating inventory, planning and developmental activities, and management of natural resources, disasters and dissemination of information and services through geo-web services for NER. The operational remote sensing services provided by NESAC can be broadly divided into three categories viz. natural resource planning and developmental services, disaster risk reduction and early warning services and information dissemination through geo-portal services. As a apart of natural resources planning and developmental services NESAC supports the state forest departments in preparing the forest working plans by providing geospatial inputs covering entire NER, identifying the suitable culturable wastelands for cultivation of silkworm food plants, mapping of natural resources such as land use/land cover, wastelands, land degradation etc. on temporal basis. In the area of disaster risk reduction, NESAC has initiated operational services for early warning and post disaster assessment inputs for flood early warning system (FLEWS) using satellite remote sensing, numerical weather prediction, hydrological modeling etc.; forest fire alert system with actionable attribute information; Japanese Encephalitis Early Warning System (JEWS) based on mosquito vector abundance, pig population and historical disease intensity and agriculture drought monitoring for the region. The large volumes of geo-spatial databases generated as part of operational services are made available to the administrators and local government bodies for better management, preparing prospective planning, and sustainable use of available resources. The knowledge dissemination is being done through online web portals wherever the internet access is available and as well as offline space based information kiosks, where the internet access is not available or having limited bandwidth availability. This paper presents a systematic and comprehensive study on the remote sensing services operational in NER of India for natural resources management, disaster risk reduction and dissemination of information and services, in addition to outlining future areas and direction of space applications for the region.

Study on the early warning mechanism for the security of blast furnace hearths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Hong-bo; Huo, Shou-feng; Cheng, Shu-sen

2013-04-01

The campaign life of blast furnace (BF) hearths has become the limiting factor for safety and high efficiency production of modern BFs. However, the early warning mechanism of hearth security has not been clear. In this article, based on heat transfer calculations, heat flux and erosion monitoring, the features of heat flux and erosion were analyzed and compared among different types of hearths. The primary detecting elements, mathematical models, evaluating standards, and warning methods were discussed. A novel early warning mechanism with the three-level quantificational standards was proposed for BF hearth security.

The 2014 Mw 6.0 Napa Earthquake, California: Observations from Real-time GPS-enhanced Earthquake Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johanson, I. A.; Grapenthin, R.; Allen, R. M.

2014-12-01

Recently, progress has been made to demonstrate feasibility and benefits of including real-time GPS (rtGPS) in earthquake early warning and rapid response systems. While most concepts have yet to be integrated into operational environments, the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory is currently running an rtGPS based finite fault inversion scheme in true real-time, which is triggered by the seismic-based ShakeAlert system and then sends updated earthquake alerts to a test receiver. The Geodetic Alarm System (G-larmS) was online and responded to the 2014 Mw6.0 South Napa earthquake in California. We review G-larmS' performance during this event and for 13 aftershocks, and we present rtGPS observations and real-time modeling results for the main shock. The first distributed slip model and a magnitude estimate of Mw5.5 were available 24 s after the event origin time, which could be reduced to 14 s after a bug fix (~8 s S-wave travel time, ~6 s data latency). The system continued to re-estimate the magnitude once every second: it increased to Mw5.9 3 s after the first alert and stabilized at Mw5.8 after 15 s. G-larmS' solutions for the subsequent small magnitude aftershocks demonstrate that Mw~6.0 is the current limit for alert updates to contribute back to the seismic-based early warning system.

Research on early-warning index of the spatial temperature field in concrete dams.

PubMed

Yang, Guang; Gu, Chongshi; Bao, Tengfei; Cui, Zhenming; Kan, Kan

2016-01-01

Warning indicators of the dam body's temperature are required for the real-time monitoring of the service conditions of concrete dams to ensure safety and normal operations. Warnings theories are traditionally targeted at a single point which have limitations, and the scientific warning theories on global behavior of the temperature field are non-existent. In this paper, first, in 3D space, the behavior of temperature field has regional dissimilarity. Through the Ward spatial clustering method, the temperature field was divided into regions. Second, the degree of order and degree of disorder of the temperature monitoring points were defined by the probability method. Third, the weight values of monitoring points of each regions were explored via projection pursuit. Forth, a temperature entropy expression that can describe degree of order of the spatial temperature field in concrete dams was established. Fifth, the early-warning index of temperature entropy was set up according to the calculated sequential value of temperature entropy. Finally, project cases verified the feasibility of the proposed theories. The early-warning index of temperature entropy is conducive to the improvement of early-warning ability and safety management levels during the operation of high concrete dams.

Real-Time Surveillance in Emergencies Using the Early Warning Alert and Response Network.

PubMed

Cordes, Kristina M; Cookson, Susan T; Boyd, Andrew T; Hardy, Colleen; Malik, Mamunur Rahman; Mala, Peter; El Tahir, Khalid; Everard, Marthe; Jasiem, Mohamad; Husain, Farah

2017-11-01

Humanitarian emergencies often result in population displacement and increase the risk for transmission of communicable diseases. To address the increased risk for outbreaks during humanitarian emergencies, the World Health Organization developed the Early Warning Alert and Response Network (EWARN) for early detection of epidemic-prone diseases. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has worked with the World Health Organization, ministries of health, and other partners to support EWARN through the implementation and evaluation of these systems and the development of standardized guidance. Although protocols have been developed for the implementation and evaluation of EWARN, a need persists for standardized training and additional guidance on supporting these systems remotely when access to affected areas is restricted. Continued collaboration between partners and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for surveillance during emergencies is necessary to strengthen capacity and support global health security.

Real-Time Surveillance in Emergencies Using the Early Warning Alert and Response Network

PubMed Central

Cordes, Kristina M.; Cookson, Susan T.; Boyd, Andrew T.; Hardy, Colleen; Malik, Mamunur Rahman; Mala, Peter; El Tahir, Khalid; Everard, Marthe; Jasiem, Mohamad

2017-01-01

Humanitarian emergencies often result in population displacement and increase the risk for transmission of communicable diseases. To address the increased risk for outbreaks during humanitarian emergencies, the World Health Organization developed the Early Warning Alert and Response Network (EWARN) for early detection of epidemic-prone diseases. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has worked with the World Health Organization, ministries of health, and other partners to support EWARN through the implementation and evaluation of these systems and the development of standardized guidance. Although protocols have been developed for the implementation and evaluation of EWARN, a need persists for standardized training and additional guidance on supporting these systems remotely when access to affected areas is restricted. Continued collaboration between partners and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for surveillance during emergencies is necessary to strengthen capacity and support global health security. PMID:29155660

A tsunami early warning system for the coastal area modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soebroto, Arief Andy; Sunaryo, Suhartanto, Ery

2015-04-01

The tsunami disaster is a potential disaster in the territory of Indonesia. Indonesia is an archipelago country and close to the ocean deep. The tsunami occurred in Aceh province in 2004. Early prevention efforts have been carried out. One of them is making "tsunami buoy" which has been developed by BPPT. The tool puts sensors on the ocean floor near the coast to detect earthquakes on the ocean floor. Detection results are transmitted via satellite by a transmitter placed floating on the sea surface. The tool will cost billions of dollars for each system. Another constraint was the transmitter theft "tsunami buoy" in the absence of guard. In this study of the system has a transmission system using radio frequency and focused on coastal areas where costs are cheaper, so that it can be applied at many beaches in Indonesia are potentially affected by the tsunami. The monitoring system sends the detection results to the warning system using a radio frequency with a capability within 3 Km. Test results on the sub module sensor monitoring system generates an error of 0.63% was taken 10% showed a good quality sensing. The test results of data transmission from the transceiver of monitoring system to the receiver of warning system produces 100% successful delivery and reception of data. The test results on the whole system to function 100% properly.

New early warning system for gravity-driven ruptures based on codetection of acoustic signal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faillettaz, J.

2016-12-01

Gravity-driven rupture phenomena in natural media - e.g. landslide, rockfalls, snow or ice avalanches - represent an important class of natural hazards in mountainous regions. To protect the population against such events, a timely evacuation often constitutes the only effective way to secure the potentially endangered area. However, reliable prediction of imminence of such failure events remains challenging due to the nonlinear and complex nature of geological material failure hampered by inherent heterogeneity, unknown initial mechanical state, and complex load application (rainfall, temperature, etc.). Here, a simple method for real-time early warning that considers both the heterogeneity of natural media and characteristics of acoustic emissions attenuation is proposed. This new method capitalizes on codetection of elastic waves emanating from microcracks by multiple and spatially separated sensors. Event-codetection is considered as surrogate for large event size with more frequent codetected events (i.e., detected concurrently on more than one sensor) marking imminence of catastrophic failure. Simple numerical model based on a Fiber Bundle Model considering signal attenuation and hypothetical arrays of sensors confirms the early warning potential of codetection principles. Results suggest that although statistical properties of attenuated signal amplitude could lead to misleading results, monitoring the emergence of large events announcing impeding failure is possible even with attenuated signals depending on sensor network geometry and detection threshold. Preliminary application of the proposed method to acoustic emissions during failure of snow samples has confirmed the potential use of codetection as indicator for imminent failure at lab scale. The applicability of such simple and cheap early warning system is now investigated at a larger scale (hillslope). First results of such a pilot field experiment are presented and analysed.

The EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory and allied networks, the makings of nascent Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning System in Western North America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattioli, Glen; Mencin, David; Hodgkinson, Kathleen; Meertens, Charles; Phillips, David; Blume, Fredrick; Berglund, Henry; Fox, Otina; Feaux, Karl

2016-04-01

The NSF-funded GAGE Facility, managed by UNAVCO, operates approximately ~1300 GNSS stations distributed across North and Central America and in the circum-Caribbean. Following community input starting in 2011 from several workshops and associated reports,UNAVCO has been exploring ways to increase the capability and utility of the geodetic resources under its management to improve our understanding in diverse areas of geophysics including properties of seismic, volcanic, magmatic and tsunami deformation sources. Networks operated by UNAVCO for the NSF have the potential to profoundly transform our ability to rapidly characterize events, provide rapid characterization and warning, as well as improve hazard mitigation and response. Specific applications currently under development include earthquake early warning, tsunami early warning, and tropospheric modeling with university, commercial, non-profit and government partners on national and international scales. In the case of tsunami early warning, for example, an RT-GNSS network can provide multiple inputs in an operational system starting with rapid assessment of earthquake sources and associated deformation, which leads to the initial model of ocean forcing and tsunami generation. In addition, terrestrial GNSScan provide direct measurements of the tsunami through the associated traveling ionospheric disturbance from several 100's of km away as they approach the shoreline,which can be used to refine tsunami inundation models. Any operational system like this has multiple communities that rely on a pan-Pacific real-time open data set. Other scientific and operational applications for high-rate GPS include glacier and ice sheet motions, tropospheric modeling, and better constraints on the dynamics of space weather. Combining existing data sets and user communities, for example seismic data and tide gauge observations, with GNSS and Met data products has proven complicated because of issues related to metadata, appropriate data formats, data quality assessment in real-time and other issues related to using these products operational forecasting. While progress has been made toward more open and free data access across national borders and toward more cooperation among cognizant government sanctioned "early warning" agencies, some impediments remain making a truly operational system a work in progress. Accordingly, UNAVCO has embarked on significant improvements and improvement goals to the original infrastructure and scope of the PBO. We anticipate that PBO and related networks will form a backbone for these disparate efforts providing high quality, low latency raw and processed GNSS data. This requires substantial upgrades to the entire system from the basic GNNS receiver, through robust data collection, archiving and open distribution mechanisms, to efficient data-processing strategies. UNAVCO is currently in a partnership with the commercial and scientific stakeholders to define, develop and deploy all segments of this improved geodetic network. We present the overarching goals, and current and planned future stateof this international resource.

Integrated SeismoGeodetic Systsem with High-Resolution, Real-Time GNSS and Accelerometer Observation For Earthquake Early Warning Application.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passmore, P. R.; Jackson, M.; Zimakov, L. G.; Raczka, J.; Davidson, P.

2014-12-01

The key requirements for Earthquake Early Warning and other Rapid Event Notification Systems are: Quick delivery of digital data from a field station to the acquisition and processing center; Data integrity for real-time earthquake notification in order to provide warning prior to significant ground shaking in the given target area. These two requirements are met in the recently developed Trimble SG160-09 SeismoGeodetic System, which integrates both GNSS and acceleration measurements using the Kalman filter algorithm to create a new high-rate (200 sps), real-time displacement with sufficient accuracy and very low latency for rapid delivery of the acquired data to a processing center. The data acquisition algorithm in the SG160-09 System provides output of both acceleration and displacement digital data with 0.2 sec delay. This is a significant reduction in the time interval required for real-time transmission compared to data delivery algorithms available in digitizers currently used in other Earthquake Early Warning networks. Both acceleration and displacement data are recorded and transmitted to the processing site in a specially developed Multiplexed Recording Format (MRF) that minimizes the bandwidth required for real-time data transmission. In addition, a built in algorithm calculates the τc and Pd once the event is declared. The SG160-09 System keeps track of what data has not been acknowledged and re-transmits the data giving priority to current data. Modified REF TEK Protocol Daemon (RTPD) receives the digital data and acknowledges data received without error. It forwards this "good" data to processing clients of various real-time data processing software including Earthworm and SeisComP3. The processing clients cache packets when a data gap occurs due to a dropped packet or network outage. The cache packet time is settable, but should not exceed 0.5 sec in the Earthquake Early Warning network configuration. The rapid data transmission algorithm was tested with different communication media, including Internet, DSL, Wi-Fi, GPRS, etc. The test results show that the data latency via most communication media do not exceed 0.5 sec nominal from a first sample in the data packet. Detailed acquisition algorithm and results of data transmission via different communication media are presented.

Learning by teaching: undergraduate engineering students improving a community's response capability to an early warning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suvannatsiri, Ratchasak; Santichaianant, Kitidech; Murphy, Elizabeth

2015-01-01

This paper reports on a project in which students designed, constructed and tested a model of an existing early warning system with simulation of debris flow in a context of a landslide. Students also assessed rural community members' knowledge of this system and subsequently taught them to estimate the time needed for evacuation of the community in the event of a landslide. Participants were four undergraduate students in a civil engineering programme at a university in Thailand, as well as nine community members and three external evaluators. Results illustrate project and problem-based, experiential learning and highlight the real-world applications and development of knowledge and of hard and soft skills. The discussion raises issues of scalability and feasibility for implementation of these types of projects in large undergraduate engineering classes.

Software to Facilitate Remote Sensing Data Access for Disease Early Warning Systems

PubMed Central

Liu, Yi; Hu, Jiameng; Snell-Feikema, Isaiah; VanBemmel, Michael S.; Lamsal, Aashis; Wimberly, Michael C.

2015-01-01

Satellite remote sensing produces an abundance of environmental data that can be used in the study of human health. To support the development of early warning systems for mosquito-borne diseases, we developed an open-source, client based software application to enable the Epidemiological Applications of Spatial Technologies (EASTWeb). Two major design decisions were full automation of the discovery, retrieval and processing of remote sensing data from multiple sources, and making the system easily modifiable in response to changes in data availability and user needs. Key innovations that helped to achieve these goals were the implementation of a software framework for data downloading and the design of a scheduler that tracks the complex dependencies among multiple data processing tasks and makes the system resilient to external errors. EASTWeb has been successfully applied to support forecasting of West Nile virus outbreaks in the United States and malaria epidemics in the Ethiopian highlands. PMID:26644779

The impact of the disease early warning system in responding to natural disasters and conflict crises in Pakistan.

PubMed

Rahim, M; Kazi, B M; Bile, K M; Munir, M; Khan, A R

2010-01-01

The disease early warning system (DEWS) was introduced in the immediate aftermath of the 2005 earthquake in Pakistan, with the objective to undertake prompt investigation and mitigation of disease outbreaks. The DEWS network was replicated successfully during subsequent flood and earthquake disasters as well as during the 2008-09 internally displaced persons' crisis. DEWS-generated alerts, prompt investigations and timely responses had an effective contribution to the control of epidemics. Through DEWS, 1360 reported alerts during 2005-09 averted the risk of disease outbreaks through pre-emptive necessary measures, while the 187 confirmed outbreaks were effectively controlled. In the aftermath of the disasters, DEWS technology also facilitated the development of a disease-surveillance system that became an integral part of the district health system. This study aims to report the DEWS success and substantiate its lead role as a priority emergency health response intervention.

A spatial Bayesian network model to assess the benefits of early warning for urban flood risk to people

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balbi, S.; Villa, F.; Mojtahed, V.; Hegetschweiler, K. T.; Giupponi, C.

2015-10-01

This article presents a novel methodology to assess flood risk to people by integrating people's vulnerability and ability to cushion hazards through coping and adapting. The proposed approach extends traditional risk assessments beyond material damages; complements quantitative and semi-quantitative data with subjective and local knowledge, improving the use of commonly available information; produces estimates of model uncertainty by providing probability distributions for all of its outputs. Flood risk to people is modeled using a spatially explicit Bayesian network model calibrated on expert opinion. Risk is assessed in terms of: (1) likelihood of non-fatal physical injury; (2) likelihood of post-traumatic stress disorder; (3) likelihood of death. The study area covers the lower part of the Sihl valley (Switzerland) including the city of Zurich. The model is used to estimate the benefits of improving an existing Early Warning System, taking into account the reliability, lead-time and scope (i.e. coverage of people reached by the warning). Model results indicate that the potential benefits of an improved early warning in terms of avoided human impacts are particularly relevant in case of a major flood event: about 75 % of fatalities, 25 % of injuries and 18 % of post-traumatic stress disorders could be avoided.

Tsunami Early Warning in Europe: NEAMWave Exercise 2012 - the Portuguese Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lendholt, Matthias; Hammmitzsch, Martin; Schulz, Jana; Reißland, Sven

2013-04-01

On 27th and 28th November 2012 the first European-wide tsunami exercise took place under the auspices of UNESCO Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (ICG/NEAMTWS). Four international scenarios were performed - one for each candidate tsunami watch provider France, Greece, Portugal and Turkey. Their task was to generate and disseminate tsunami warning bulletins in-time and in compliance with the official NEAMTWS specifications. The Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA, [1]) in Lissabon and the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI [2]) in Istanbul are the national agencies of Portugal and Turkey responsible for tsunami early warning. Both institutes are partners in the TRIDEC [3] project and were using the TRIDEC Natural Crisis Management (NCM) system during NEAMWave exercise. The software demonstrated the seamless integration of diverse components including sensor systems, simulation data, and dissemination hardware. The functionalities that were showcased significantly exceeded the internationally agreed range of capabilities. Special attention was given to the Command and Control User Interface (CCUI) serving as central application for the operator. Its origins lie in the DEWS project [4] but numerous new functionalities were added to master all requirements defined by the complex NEAMTWS workflows. It was of utmost importance to develop an application handling the complexity of tsunami science but providing a clearly arranged and comprehensible interface that disburdens the operator during time-critical hazard situations. [1] IPMA: www.ipma.pt/ [2] KOERI: www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/ [3] TRIDEC: www.tridec-online.eu [4] DEWS: www.dews-online.org

Fast Moment Magnitude Determination from P-wave Trains for Bucharest Rapid Early Warning System (BREWS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lizurek, Grzegorz; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Wiszniowski, Jan

2017-03-01

Bucharest, with a population of approximately 2 million people, has suffered damage from earthquakes in the Vrancea seismic zone, which is located about 170 km from Bucharest, at a depth of 80-200 km. Consequently, an earthquake early warning system (Bucharest Rapid earthquake Early Warning System or BREWS) was constructed to provide some warning about impending shaking from large earthquakes in the Vrancea zone. In order to provide quick estimates of magnitude, seismic moment was first determined from P-waves and then a moment magnitude was determined from the moment. However, this magnitude may not be consistent with previous estimates of magnitude from the Romanian Seismic Network. This paper introduces the algorithm using P-wave spectral levels and compares them with catalog estimates. The testing procedure used waveforms from about 90 events with catalog magnitudes from 3.5 to 5.4. Corrections to the P-wave determined magnitudes according to dominant intermediate depth events mechanism were tested for November 22, 2014, M5.6 and October 17, M6 events. The corrections worked well, but unveiled overestimation of the average magnitude result of about 0.2 magnitude unit in the case of shallow depth event ( H < 60 km). The P-wave spectral approach allows for the relatively fast estimates of magnitude for use in BREWS. The average correction taking into account the most common focal mechanism for radiation pattern coefficient may lead to overestimation of the magnitude for shallow events of about 0.2 magnitude unit. However, in case of events of intermediate depth of M6 the resulting M w is underestimated at about 0.1-0.2. We conclude that our P-wave spectral approach is sufficiently robust for the needs of BREWS for both shallow and intermediate depth events.

Identifying early-warning signals of critical transitions with strong noise by dynamical network markers

PubMed Central

Liu, Rui; Chen, Pei; Aihara, Kazuyuki; Chen, Luonan

2015-01-01

Identifying early-warning signals of a critical transition for a complex system is difficult, especially when the target system is constantly perturbed by big noise, which makes the traditional methods fail due to the strong fluctuations of the observed data. In this work, we show that the critical transition is not traditional state-transition but probability distribution-transition when the noise is not sufficiently small, which, however, is a ubiquitous case in real systems. We present a model-free computational method to detect the warning signals before such transitions. The key idea behind is a strategy: “making big noise smaller” by a distribution-embedding scheme, which transforms the data from the observed state-variables with big noise to their distribution-variables with small noise, and thus makes the traditional criteria effective because of the significantly reduced fluctuations. Specifically, increasing the dimension of the observed data by moment expansion that changes the system from state-dynamics to probability distribution-dynamics, we derive new data in a higher-dimensional space but with much smaller noise. Then, we develop a criterion based on the dynamical network marker (DNM) to signal the impending critical transition using the transformed higher-dimensional data. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in biological, ecological and financial systems. PMID:26647650

The Family's Role in Rehabilitation: "Early Warning System."

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Westin, Marijo Thomas; Reiss, David

1979-01-01

Describes methods used in a project at George Washington University's Rehabilitation Research and Training Center to predict and classify a family's involvement in a patient's rehabilitation program. As family attitudes can enhance or damage a program's effectiveness, early identification of uncooperative families is necessary so that intervention…

Toward a National Early Warning System for Forest Disturbances Using Remotely Sensed Canopy Phenology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

HargroveJr., William Walter; Spruce, Joe; Gasser, Gerry

2009-01-01

Imagine a national system with the ability to quickly identify forested areas under attack from insects or disease. Such an early warning system might minimize surprises such as the explosion of caterpillars referred to in the quotation to the left. Moderate resolution (ca. 500m) remote sensing repeated at frequent (ca. weekly) intervals could power such a monitoring system that would respond in near real-time. An ideal warning system would be national in scope, automated, able to improve its prognostic ability with experience, and would provide regular map updates online in familiar and accessible formats. Such a goal is quite ambitiousmore » - analyzing vegetation change weekly at a national scale with moderate resolution is a daunting task. The foremost challenge is discerning unusual or unexpected disturbances from the normal backdrop of seasonal and annual changes in vegetation conditions. A historical perspective is needed to define a 'baseline' for expected, normal behavior against which detected changes can be correctly interpreted. It would be necessary to combine temperature, precipitation, soils, and topographic information with the remotely sensed data to discriminate and interpret the changing vegetation conditions on the ground. Conterminous national coverage implies huge data volumes, even at a moderate resolution (250-500m), and likely requires a supercomputing capability. Finally, such a national warning system must carefully balance the rate of successful threat detection with false positives. Since 2005, the USDA Forest Service has partnered with the NASA Stennis Space Center and Oak Ridge National Laboratory to develop methods for monitoring environmental threats, including native insects and diseases, wildfire, invasive pests and pathogens, tornados, hurricanes, and hail. These tools will be instrumental in helping the Forest Service's two Environmental Threat Assessment Centers better meet their Congressional mandate to help track the health of the Nation's forests and rangelands. We envision two scales of forest monitoring: (1) a strategic, satellite-based monitoring of broad regions to identify particular locations where threats are suspected (i.e., early warning), and (2) a fine-scale, tactical tier consisting of airborne overflights and on-the-ground monitoring to check the validity of warnings from the upper tier. The tactical tier is already largely in place within the Forest Service and its State collaborators, consisting of aerial detection surveys (sketch mapping from aircraft), ground surveys, and trapping programs. However, these efforts are expensive and labor-intensive, can be dangerous, and may not provide sufficient broad-area coverage. Far from replacing the tactical tier, the national system will rely on the finer-scale efforts to confirm, validate, and attribute causes of detected forest disturbances. One important objective of the national warning system will be to help direct the focus of the tactical tier, making their efforts more cost efficient and effective.« less

Towards the construction of a Drought Early Warning System in México

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neri, C.; Magaña, V. O.

2011-12-01

Droughts in Mexico are related to severe impacts in agricultural and livestock activities, water management and with the occurrence of wildfire. Droughts are recurrent, on time scales from years to decades. The impacts however, depend on the vulnerability. The negative impacts may be reduced by studying and monitoring the dynamical evolution of meteorological drought, and by identifying the factors that result in vulnerability, in the context of risk management. Considering the analysis of the vulnerability in the northern of Mexico, a semiarid region highly vulnerable to drought, a Drought Early Warning System was created based on the use of climate information. The first step was to identify the capacity to provide useful climate information to develop prevention actions. Results confirm that the drought in northern Mexico is a well-diagnosed phenomenon from the point of view of impacts in various sectors. However, the use of climate information is still very limited resulting in response to mitigate drought impacts rather than preparing for drought. Part of the problem is the limited capacity to interpret probabilistic forecasts to define actions. Therefore, a key element in a Drought Early Warning System is the development of reliable climate information and the use of indicators to determine of the onset, maximum intensity and duration of the event. The occurrence and severity of drought may be estimated using climate diagnosis and forecast. A preventive response to drought may be defined if the severity and duration surpass a threshold value after which a decision action should be made. In order to establish the relevance of indicators for drought risk management, retroactive analyses have been developed considering the case of northwestern Mexico. After a vulnerability analysis that considers the institutional capacity to make use of climate information, a Drought Early warning System has been designed that considers a number of actions that may be put forward in order to reduce the impacts of such climatic hazard. The potential impact of such system is examined considering a number of actions that may be implemented in the water, agricultural and cattle ranching sectors. We conclude that there are great opportunities to reduce the negative impacts of drought if climate information is used.

Automated online optical biosensing system for continuous real-time determination of microcystin-LR with high sensitivity and specificity: early warning for cyanotoxin risk in drinking water sources.

PubMed

Shi, Han-Chang; Song, Bao-Dong; Long, Feng; Zhou, Xiao-Hong; He, Miao; Lv, Qing; Yang, Hai-Yang

2013-05-07

The accelerated eutrophication of surface water sources and climate change have led to an annual occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms in many drinking water resources. To minimize the health risks to the public, cyanotoxin detection methods that are rapid, sensitive, real time, and high frequency must be established. In this study, an innovative automated online optical biosensing system (AOBS) was developed for the rapid detection and early warning of microcystin-LR (MC-LR), one of the most toxic cyanotoxins and most frequently detected in environmental water. In this system, the capturing molecular MC-LR-ovalbumin (MC-LR-OVA) was covalently immobilized onto a biochip surface. By an indirect competitive detection mode, samples containing different concentrations of MC-LR were premixed with a certain concentration of fluorescence-labeled anti-MC-LR-mAb, which binds to MC-LR with high specificity. Then, the sample mixture was pumped onto the biochip surface, and a higher concentration of MC-LR led to less fluorescence-labeled antibody bound onto the biochip surface and thus to lower fluorescence signal. The quantification of MC-LR ranges from 0.2 to 4 μg/L, with a detection limit determined as 0.09 μg/L. The high specificity and selectivity of the sensor were evaluated in terms of its response to a number of potentially interfering cyanotoxins. Potential interference of the environmental sample matrix was assessed by spiked samples, and the recovery of MC-LR ranged from 90 to 120% with relative standard deviation values <8%. The immunoassay performance of the AOBS was validated with respect to that of conventional high-performance liquid chromatography, and the correlation between methods agreed well (R(2) = 0.9762). This system has successfully been applied to long-term, continuous determination and early warning for MC-LR in Lake Tai from June 2011 to May 2012. Thus, the AOBS paves the way for a vital routine online analysis that satisfies the high demand for ensuring the safety of drinking water sources. The AOBS can also serve as early warning system for accidental or intentional water pollution.

Embedding High-Fidelity Simulation Into a Foundations of Nursing Course.

PubMed

Talbot, Megan Sary

2015-01-01

Delay in recognizing the need for and initiating lifesaving measures is unacceptable in health care. It is never too early to teach novice nursing students to recognize and respond to early warning signs of patient deterioration. The rapid response system was developed to expedite recognition of and response to changes in a patient's condition. Use of high-fidelity simulation by beginning nursing students to practice recognizing and responding to patient deterioration is vital to both the welfare of patients and the edification of students. Recognizing and responding quickly to patients' early warning signs of deterioration can determine a patient's outcome. This article discusses the importance of instructing beginning nursing students in identifying and reacting appropriately to early signs of patient deterioration and in following the chain of command to activate the rapid response team.

Prototype Early Warning Systems for Vector-Borne Diseases in Europe

PubMed Central

Semenza, Jan C.

2015-01-01

Globalization and environmental change, social and demographic determinants and health system capacity are significant drivers of infectious diseases which can also act as epidemic precursors. Thus, monitoring changes in these drivers can help anticipate, or even forecast, an upsurge of infectious diseases. The European Environment and Epidemiology (E3) Network has been built for this purpose and applied to three early warning case studies: (1) The environmental suitability of malaria transmission in Greece was mapped in order to target epidemiological and entomological surveillance and vector control activities. Malaria transmission in these areas was interrupted in 2013 through such integrated preparedness and response activities. (2) Since 2010, recurrent West Nile fever outbreaks have ensued in South/eastern Europe. Temperature deviations from a thirty year average proved to be associated with the 2010 outbreak. Drivers of subsequent outbreaks were computed through multivariate logistic regression models and included monthly temperature anomalies for July and a normalized water index. (3) Dengue is a tropical disease but sustained transmission has recently emerged in Madeira. Autochthonous transmission has also occurred repeatedly in France and in Croatia mainly due to travel importation. The risk of dengue importation into Europe in 2010 was computed with the volume of international travelers from dengue affected areas worldwide.These prototype early warning systems indicate that monitoring drivers of infectious diseases can help predict vector-borne disease threats. PMID:26042370

Prototype early warning systems for vector-borne diseases in Europe.

PubMed

Semenza, Jan C

2015-06-02

Globalization and environmental change, social and demographic determinants and health system capacity are significant drivers of infectious diseases which can also act as epidemic precursors. Thus, monitoring changes in these drivers can help anticipate, or even forecast, an upsurge of infectious diseases. The European Environment and Epidemiology (E3) Network has been built for this purpose and applied to three early warning case studies: (1) The environmental suitability of malaria transmission in Greece was mapped in order to target epidemiological and entomological surveillance and vector control activities. Malaria transmission in these areas was interrupted in 2013 through such integrated preparedness and response activities. (2) Since 2010, recurrent West Nile fever outbreaks have ensued in South/eastern Europe. Temperature deviations from a thirty year average proved to be associated with the 2010 outbreak. Drivers of subsequent outbreaks were computed through multivariate logistic regression models and included monthly temperature anomalies for July and a normalized water index. (3) Dengue is a tropical disease but sustained transmission has recently emerged in Madeira. Autochthonous transmission has also occurred repeatedly in France and in Croatia mainly due to travel importation. The risk of dengue importation into Europe in 2010 was computed with the volume of international travelers from dengue affected areas worldwide.These prototype early warning systems indicate that monitoring drivers of infectious diseases can help predict vector-borne disease threats.

Quake warnings, seismic culture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Richard M.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Huggins, Tom; Miles, Scott; Otegui, Diego

2017-01-01

Since 1990, nearly one million people have died from the impacts of earthquakes. Reducing those impacts requires building a local seismic culture in which residents are aware of earthquake risks and value efforts to mitigate harm. Such efforts include earthquake early warning (EEW) systems that provide seconds to minutes notice of pending shaking. Recent events in Mexico provide an opportunity to assess performance and perception of an EEW system and highlight areas for further improvement. We have learned that EEW systems, even imperfect ones, can help people prepare for earthquakes and build local seismic culture, both beneficial in reducing earthquake-related losses.

WATER QUALITY EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS FOR SOURCE WATER AND DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM MONITORING

EPA Science Inventory

A variety of probes for use in continuous monitoring of water quality exist. They range from single parameter chemical/physical probes to comprehensive screening systems based on whole organism responses. Originally developed for monitoring specific characteristics of water qua...

An Offshore Geophysical Network in the Pacific Northwest for Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning and Hazard Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilcock, W. S. D.; Schmidt, D. A.; Vidale, J. E.; Harrington, M.; Bodin, P.; Cram, G.; Delaney, J. R.; Gonzalez, F. I.; Kelley, D. S.; LeVeque, R. J.; Manalang, D.; McGuire, C.; Roland, E. C.; Tilley, J.; Vogl, C. J.; Stoermer, M.

2016-12-01

The Cascadia subduction zone hosts catastrophic earthquakes every few hundred years. On land, there are extensive geophysical networks available to monitor the subduction zone, but since the locked portion of the plate boundary lies mostly offshore, these networks are ideally complemented by seafloor observations. Such considerations helped motivate the development of scientific cabled observatories that cross the subduction zone at two sites off Vancouver Island and one off central Oregon, but these have a limited spatial footprint along the strike of the subduction zone. The Pacific Northwest Seismic Network is leading a collaborative effort to implement an earthquake early warning system in the Washington and Oregon using data streams from land networks as well as the few existing offshore instruments. For subduction zone earthquakes that initiate offshore, this system will provide a warning. However, the availability of real time offshore instrumentation along the entire subduction zone would improve its reliability and accuracy, add up to 15 s to the warning time, and ensure an early warning for coastal communities near the epicenter. Furthermore, real-time networks of seafloor pressure sensors above the subduction zone would enable monitoring and contribute to accurate predictions of the incoming tsunami. There is also strong scientific motivation for offshore monitoring. We lack a complete knowledge of the plate convergence rate and direction. Measurements of steady deformation and observations of transient processes such as fluid pulsing, microseismic cycles, tremor and slow-slip are necessary for assessing the dimensions of the locked zone and its along-strike segmentation. Long-term monitoring will also provide baseline observations that can be used to detect and evaluate changes in the subduction environment. There are significant engineering challenges to be solved to ensure the system is sufficiently reliable and maintainable. It must provide continuous monitoring over its operational life in the harsh ocean environment and at least parts of the system must continue to operate following a megathrust event. These requirements for robustness must be balanced with the desire for a flexible design that can accommodate new scientific instrumentation over the life of the project.

Application of Advanced Wide Area Early Warning Systems with Adaptive Protection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blumstein, Carl; Cibulka, Lloyd; Thorp, James

2014-09-30

Recent blackouts of power systems in North America and throughout the world have shown how critical a reliable power system is to modern societies, and the enormous economic and societal damage a blackout can cause. It has been noted that unanticipated operation of protection systems can contribute to cascading phenomena and, ultimately, blackouts. This project developed and field-tested two methods of Adaptive Protection systems utilizing synchrophasor data. One method detects conditions of system stress that can lead to unintended relay operation, and initiates a supervisory signal to modify relay response in real time to avoid false trips. The second methodmore » detects the possibility of false trips of impedance relays as stable system swings “encroach” on the relays’ impedance zones, and produces an early warning so that relay engineers can re-evaluate relay settings. In addition, real-time synchrophasor data produced by this project was used to develop advanced visualization techniques for display of synchrophasor data to utility operators and engineers.« less

Development of communication networks and water quality early warning detection systems at drinking water utilities in the Ohio River Valley Basin.

PubMed

Schulte, J G; Vicory, A H

2005-01-01

Source water quality is of major concern to all drinking water utilities. The accidental introduction of contaminants to their source water is a constant threat to utilities withdrawing water from navigable or industrialized rivers. The events of 11 September, 2001 in the United States have heightened concern for drinking water utility security as their source water and finished water may be targets for terrorist acts. Efforts are underway in several parts of the United States to strengthen early warning capabilities. This paper will focus on those efforts in the Ohio River Valley Basin.

Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products Resident to the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spruce, Joseph P.; Hargrove, William W.; Gasser, Gerald

2013-01-01

Forest threats across the US have become increasingly evident in recent years. Sometimes these have resulted in regionally evident disturbance progressions (e.g., from drought, bark beetle outbreaks, and wildfires) that can occur across multiyear durations and have resulted in extensive forest overstory mortality. In addition to stand replacement disturbances, other forests are subject to ephemeral, sometimes yearly defoliation from various insects and varying types and intensities of ephemeral damage from storms. Sometimes, after prolonged severe disturbance, signs of recovery in terms of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can occur. The growing prominence and threat of forest disturbances in part have led to the formation and implementation of the 2003 Healthy Forest Restoration Act which mandated that national forest threat early warning system be developed and deployed. In response, the US Forest Service collaborated with NASA, DOE Oakridge National Laboratory, and the USGS Eros Data Center to build and roll-out the near real time ForWarn early warning system for monitoring regionally evident forest disturbances. Given the diversity of disturbance types, severities, and durations, ForWarn employs multiple historical baselines that are used with current NDVI to derive a suite of six forest change products that are refreshed every 8 days. ForWarn employs daily quarter kilometer MODIS NDVI data from the Aqua and Terra satellites, including MOD13 data for deriving historical baseline NDVIs and eMODIS 7 NDVI for compiling current NDVI. In doing so, the Time Series Product Tool and the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool are used to temporally de-noise, fuse, and aggregate current and historical MODIS NDVIs into 24 day composites refreshed every 8 days with 46 dates of products per year. The 24 day compositing interval enables disturbances to be detected, while minimizing the frequency of residual atmospheric contamination. Forest change products are computed versus the previous 1, previous 3, and all previous years in the MODIS record for a given 24 day interval. Other "weekly" forest change products include one computed using an adaptive length compositing method for quicker detection of disturbances, two others that adjust for seasonal fluctuations in normal vegetation phenology (e.g., early versus late springs). This overall approach enables forest disturbance dynamics from a variety of regionally evident biotic and abiotic forest disturbances to be viewed and assessed through the calendar year. The change products are also being utilized for forest change trend analysis and for developing regional forest overstory mortality products. ForWarn's forest change products are used to alert forest health specialists about new forest disturbances. Such alerts are also typically based on available Landsat, aerial, and ground data as well as communications with forest health specialists and previous experience. ForWarn products have been used to detect and track many types of regional disturbances to multiple forest types, including defoliation from caterpillars and severe storms, as well as mortality from both biotic and abiotic agents (e.g., bark beetles, drought, fire, anthropogenic clearing). ForWarn offers products that could be combined with other geospatial data on forest biomass to assess forest disturbance carbon impacts within the conterminous US.

Using Quality Improvement to Introduce and Standardize the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) for Adult Inpatients at a Children's Hospital.

PubMed

Conway-Habes, Erin E; Herbst, Brian F; Herbst, Lori A; Kinnear, Benjamin; Timmons, Kristen; Horewitz, Deborah; Falgout, Rachel; O'Toole, Jennifer K; Vossmeyer, Michael

2017-03-01

The population of adults with childhood-onset chronic illness is growing across children's hospitals and constitutes a high risk population. National Early Warning Score (NEWS) is among the most recently validated adult early warning scores (EWSs) for early recognition of and response to clinical deterioration. Our aim was to implement and standardize NEWS scoring in 80% of patients age 21 and older admitted to a children's hospital. Our intervention was tested on a single unit of our children's hospital. The primary process measure was the percentage of NEWS documented within 1 hour of routine nursing assessments, and was tracked using a run chart. Improvement activities focused on effective training, key stakeholder buy-in, increased awareness, real-time mitigation of failures, accountability for adherence, and action-oriented response. We also tracked the distribution of NEWS values and medical emergency team calls. The percentage of NEWS documented with routine nursing assessments for patients age 21 and over increased from 0% to 90% within 15 weeks and remained at 77% or greater for 17 weeks. Our distribution of NEWS values was similar to previously reported NEWS distribution. A nurse-driven adult early warning system for inpatients age 21 and older at a children's hospital can be achieved through a standardized EWS assessment process, incorporation into the electronic health record, and charge nurse and key stakeholder oversight. Furthermore, implementation of an adult EWS being used at a pediatric institution and our distribution of NEWS values were comparable to distribution published from adult hospitals. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Using Satellite Data to Build Climate Resilience: A Novel East Africa Drought Monitor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slinski, K.; Hogue, T. S.; McCray, J. E.

2016-12-01

East Africa is affected by recurrent drought. The 2015-2016 El Niño triggered a severe drought across East Africa causing serious impacts to regional water security, health, and livelihoods. Ethiopia was the hardest hit, with the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs calling the recent drought the worst in 50 years. Resources to monitor the severity and progression of droughts are a critical component to disaster risk reduction, but are challenging to implement in regions with sparse data collection networks such as East Africa. Satellite data is used by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization Global Information and Early Warning System, the USAID Famine Early Warning System, and the Africa Drought and Flood Monitor. These systems use remotely sensed vegetation, soil moisture, and meteorological data to develop drought indices. However, they do not directly monitor impacts to water resources, which is necessary to appropriately target drought mitigation efforts. The current study combines new radar data from the European Space Agency's Sentinel-1 mission with satellite imagery to perform a retrospective analysis of the impact of the 2015-2016 drought in East Africa on regional surface water. Inland water body extents during the drought are compared to historical trends to identify the most severely impacted areas. The developed tool has the potential to support on-the-ground humanitarian relief efforts and to refine predictions of water scarcity and crop impacts from existing hydrologic models and famine early warning systems.

Earthquake early Warning ShakeAlert system: West coast wide production prototype

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kohler, Monica D.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Given, Douglas; Guiwits, Stephen; Neuhauser, Doug; Hensen, Ivan; Hartog, Renate; Bodin, Paul; Kress, Victor; Thompson, Stephen; Felizardo, Claude; Brody, Jeff; Bhadha, Rayo; Schwarz, Stan

2017-01-01

Earthquake early warning (EEW) is an application of seismological science that can give people, as well as mechanical and electrical systems, up to tens of seconds to take protective actions before peak earthquake shaking arrives at a location. Since 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey has been working in collaboration with several partners to develop EEW for the United States. The goal is to create and operate an EEW system, called ShakeAlert, for the highest risk areas of the United States, starting with the West Coast states of California, Oregon, and Washington. In early 2016, the Production Prototype v.1.0 was established for California; then, in early 2017, v.1.2 was established for the West Coast, with earthquake notifications being distributed to a group of beta users in California, Oregon, and Washington. The new ShakeAlert Production Prototype was an outgrowth from an earlier demonstration EEW system that began sending test notifications to selected users in California in January 2012. ShakeAlert leverages the considerable physical, technical, and organizational earthquake monitoring infrastructure of the Advanced National Seismic System, a nationwide federation of cooperating seismic networks. When fully implemented, the ShakeAlert system may reduce damage and injury caused by large earthquakes, improve the nation’s resilience, and speed recovery.

Development of a flood-induced health risk prediction model for Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, D.; Block, P. J.

2017-12-01

Globally, many floods occur in developing or tropical regions where the impact on public health is substantial, including death and injury, drinking water, endemic disease, and so on. Although these flood impacts on public health have been investigated, integrated management of floods and flood-induced health risks is technically and institutionally limited. Specifically, while the use of climatic and hydrologic forecasts for disaster management has been highlighted, analogous predictions for forecasting the magnitude and impact of health risks are lacking, as is the infrastructure for health early warning systems, particularly in developing countries. In this study, we develop flood-induced health risk prediction model for African regions using season-ahead flood predictions with climate drivers and a variety of physical and socio-economic information, such as local hazard, exposure, resilience, and health vulnerability indicators. Skillful prediction of flood and flood-induced health risks can contribute to practical pre- and post-disaster responses in both local- and global-scales, and may eventually be integrated into multi-hazard early warning systems for informed advanced planning and management. This is especially attractive for areas with limited observations and/or little capacity to develop flood-induced health risk warning systems.

Geodetic Finite-Fault-based Earthquake Early Warning Performance for Great Earthquakes Worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruhl, C. J.; Melgar, D.; Grapenthin, R.; Allen, R. M.

2017-12-01

GNSS-based earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithms estimate fault-finiteness and unsaturated moment magnitude for the largest, most damaging earthquakes. Because large events are infrequent, algorithms are not regularly exercised and insufficiently tested on few available datasets. The Geodetic Alarm System (G-larmS) is a GNSS-based finite-fault algorithm developed as part of the ShakeAlert EEW system in the western US. Performance evaluations using synthetic earthquakes offshore Cascadia showed that G-larmS satisfactorily recovers magnitude and fault length, providing useful alerts 30-40 s after origin time and timely warnings of ground motion for onshore urban areas. An end-to-end test of the ShakeAlert system demonstrated the need for GNSS data to accurately estimate ground motions in real-time. We replay real data from several subduction-zone earthquakes worldwide to demonstrate the value of GNSS-based EEW for the largest, most damaging events. We compare predicted ground acceleration (PGA) from first-alert-solutions with those recorded in major urban areas. In addition, where applicable, we compare observed tsunami heights to those predicted from the G-larmS solutions. We show that finite-fault inversion based on GNSS-data is essential to achieving the goals of EEW.

Real-time earthquake monitoring: Early warning and rapid response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

A panel was established to investigate the subject of real-time earthquake monitoring (RTEM) and suggest recommendations on the feasibility of using a real-time earthquake warning system to mitigate earthquake damage in regions of the United States. The findings of the investigation and the related recommendations are described in this report. A brief review of existing real-time seismic systems is presented with particular emphasis given to the current California seismic networks. Specific applications of a real-time monitoring system are discussed along with issues related to system deployment and technical feasibility. In addition, several non-technical considerations are addressed including cost-benefit analysis, public perceptions, safety, and liability.

Knowledge base and sensor bus messaging service architecture for critical tsunami warning and decision-support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabeur, Z. A.; Wächter, J.; Middleton, S. E.; Zlatev, Z.; Häner, R.; Hammitzsch, M.; Loewe, P.

2012-04-01

The intelligent management of large volumes of environmental monitoring data for early tsunami warning requires the deployment of robust and scalable service oriented infrastructure that is supported by an agile knowledge-base for critical decision-support In the TRIDEC project (TRIDEC 2010-2013), a sensor observation service bus of the TRIDEC system is being developed for the advancement of complex tsunami event processing and management. Further, a dedicated TRIDEC system knowledge-base is being implemented to enable on-demand access to semantically rich OGC SWE compliant hydrodynamic observations and operationally oriented meta-information to multiple subscribers. TRIDEC decision support requires a scalable and agile real-time processing architecture which enables fast response to evolving subscribers requirements as the tsunami crisis develops. This is also achieved with the support of intelligent processing services which specialise in multi-level fusion methods with relevance feedback and deep learning. The TRIDEC knowledge base development work coupled with that of the generic sensor bus platform shall be presented to demonstrate advanced decision-support with situation awareness in context of tsunami early warning and crisis management.

Nutritional status as an indicator of impending food stress*.

PubMed

Galvin, K A

1988-06-01

Famine early warning systems benefit from a variety of indicators which together signal the initial stages of food stress for particular population groups. Anthropometry has been used as an indicator in early warning systems, but there are inherent problems in its use which should be understood. Using data from Turkana pastoralists of northwest Kenya, this paper discusses the problems of: time lag between food shortages and changes in body size and composition; use of reference points; accurate age assessment; and establishment of baseline data. Diet composition data are suggested to be an additional nutrition-oriented indicator of impending food stress and one in which problems associated with anthropometry are not inherent. Both measures may be useful in monitoring a population, but their strengths and weaknesses should be appreciated.

Contribution of Near Real Time MODIS-Based Forest Disturbance Detection Products to a National Forest Threat Early Warning System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spruce, Joseph; Hargrove, William; Gasser, Gerald; Smoot, James; Kuper, Philip

2011-01-01

U.S. forests occupy approx. 751 million acres (approx. 1/3 of total land). These forests are exposed to multiple biotic and abiotic threats that collectively damage extensive acreages each year. Hazardous forest disturbances can threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. Timely regional forest monitoring products are needed to aid forest management and decision making by the US Forest Service and its state and private partners. Daily MODIS data products provide a means to monitor regional forest disturbances on a weekly basis. In response, we began work in 2006 to develop a Near Real Time (NRT) forest monitoring capability, based on MODIS NDVI data, as part of a national forest threat early warning system (EWS)

Crowd-Sourced Global Earthquake Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Owen, S. E.; Iannucci, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.

2014-12-01

Although earthquake early warning (EEW) has shown great promise for reducing loss of life and property, it has only been implemented in a few regions due, in part, to the prohibitive cost of building the required dense seismic and geodetic networks. However, many cars and consumer smartphones, tablets, laptops, and similar devices contain low-cost versions of the same sensors used for earthquake monitoring. If a workable EEW system could be implemented based on either crowd-sourced observations from consumer devices or very inexpensive networks of instruments built from consumer-quality sensors, EEW coverage could potentially be expanded worldwide. Controlled tests of several accelerometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers typically found in consumer devices show that, while they are significantly noisier than scientific-grade instruments, they are still accurate enough to capture displacements from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes. The accuracy of these sensors varies greatly depending on the type of data collected. Raw coarse acquisition (C/A) code GPS data are relatively noisy. These observations have a surface displacement detection threshold approaching ~1 m and would thus only be useful in large Mw 8+ earthquakes. However, incorporating either satellite-based differential corrections or using a Kalman filter to combine the raw GNSS data with low-cost acceleration data (such as from a smartphone) decreases the noise dramatically. These approaches allow detection thresholds as low as 5 cm, potentially enabling accurate warnings for earthquakes as small as Mw 6.5. Simulated performance tests show that, with data contributed from only a very small fraction of the population, a crowd-sourced EEW system would be capable of warning San Francisco and San Jose of a Mw 7 rupture on California's Hayward fault and could have accurately issued both earthquake and tsunami warnings for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.

Specification of parameters for development of a spatial database for drought monitoring and famine early warning in the African Sahel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rochon, Gilbert L.

1989-01-01

Parameters were described for spatial database to facilitate drought monitoring and famine early warning in the African Sahel. The proposed system, referred to as the African Drought and Famine Information System (ADFIS) is ultimately recommended for implementation with the NASA/FEMA Spatial Analysis and Modeling System (SAMS), a GIS/Dymanic Modeling software package, currently under development. SAMS is derived from FEMA'S Integration Emergency Management Information System (IEMIS) and the Pacific Northwest Laborotory's/Engineering Topographic Laboratory's Airland Battlefield Environment (ALBE) GIS. SAMS is primarily intended for disaster planning and resource management applications with the developing countries. Sources of data for the system would include the Developing Economics Branch of the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, the World Bank, Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine's Famine Early Warning Systems (FEWS) Project, the USAID's Foreign Disaster Assistance Section, the World Resources Institute, the World Meterological Institute, the USGS, the UNFAO, UNICEF, and the United Nations Disaster Relief Organization (UNDRO). Satellite imagery would include decadal AVHRR imagery and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values from 1981 to the present for the African continent and selected Landsat scenes for the Sudan pilot study. The system is initially conceived for the MicroVAX 2/GPX, running VMS. To facilitate comparative analysis, a global time-series database (1950 to 1987) is included for a basic set of 125 socio-economic variables per country per year. A more detailed database for the Sahelian countries includes soil type, water resources, agricultural production, agricultural import and export, food aid, and consumption. A pilot dataset for the Sudan with over 2,500 variables from the World Bank's ANDREX system, also includes epidemiological data on incidence of kwashiorkor, marasmus, other nutritional deficiencies, and synergistically-related infectious diseases.

Land Surface Modeling Applications for Famine Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNally, A.; Verdin, J. P.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Arsenault, K. R.; Wang, S.; Kumar, S.; Shukla, S.; Funk, C. C.; Pervez, M. S.; Fall, G. M.; Karsten, L. R.

2015-12-01

AGU 2015 Fall Meeting Session ID#: 7598 Remote Sensing Applications for Water Resources Management Land Surface Modeling Applications for Famine Early Warning James Verdin, USGS EROS Christa Peters-Lidard, NASA GSFC Amy McNally, NASA GSFC, UMD/ESSIC Kristi Arsenault, NASA GSFC, SAIC Shugong Wang, NASA GSFC, SAIC Sujay Kumar, NASA GSFC, SAIC Shrad Shukla, UCSB Chris Funk, USGS EROS Greg Fall, NOAA Logan Karsten, NOAA, UCAR Famine early warning has traditionally required close monitoring of agro-climatological conditions, putting them in historical context, and projecting them forward to anticipate end-of-season outcomes. In recent years, it has become necessary to factor in the effects of a changing climate as well. There has also been a growing appreciation of the linkage between food security and water availability. In 2009, Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) science partners began developing land surface modeling (LSM) applications to address these needs. With support from the NASA Applied Sciences Program, an instance of the Land Information System (LIS) was developed to specifically support FEWS NET. A simple crop water balance model (GeoWRSI) traditionally used by FEWS NET took its place alongside the Noah land surface model and the latest version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and LIS data readers were developed for FEWS NET precipitation forcings (NOAA's RFE and USGS/UCSB's CHIRPS). The resulting system was successfully used to monitor and project soil moisture conditions in the Horn of Africa, foretelling poor crop outcomes in the OND 2013 and MAM 2014 seasons. In parallel, NOAA created another instance of LIS to monitor snow water resources in Afghanistan, which are an early indicator of water availability for irrigation and crop production. These successes have been followed by investment in LSM implementations to track and project water availability in Sub-Saharan Africa and Yemen, work that is now underway. Adoption of LSM and data assimilation technology has enabled FEWS NET to take greater advantage of remote sensing observations to robustly estimate key agro-climatological states, like soil moisture and snow water equivalent, building confidence in our understanding of conditions in data sparse regions of the world.

Future of Earthquake Early Warning: Quantifying Uncertainty and Making Fast Automated Decisions for Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Stephen

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications. Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake. To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that can capture the uncertainties in EEW information and the decision process is used. This approach is called the Performance-Based Earthquake Early Warning, which is based on the PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering method. Use of surrogate models is suggested to improve computational efficiency. Also, new models are proposed to add the influence of lead time into the cost-benefit analysis. For example, a value of information model is used to quantify the potential value of delaying the activation of a mitigation action for a possible reduction of the uncertainty of EEW information in the next update. Two practical examples, evacuation alert and elevator control, are studied to illustrate the ePAD framework. Potential advanced EEW applications, such as the case of multiple-action decisions and the synergy of EEW and structural health monitoring systems, are also discussed.

Technology, conflict early warning systems, public health, and human rights.

PubMed

Pham, Phuong N; Vinck, Patrick

2012-12-15

Public health and conflict early warning are evolving rapidly in response to technology changes for the gathering, management, analysis and communication of data. It is expected that these changes will provide an unprecedented ability to monitor, detect, and respond to crises. One of the potentially most profound and lasting expected change affects the roles of the various actors in providing and sharing information and in responding to early warning. Communities and civil society actors have the opportunity to be empowered as a source of information, analysis, and response, while the role of traditional actors shifts toward supporting those communities and building resilience. However, by creating new roles, relationships, and responsibilities, technology changes raise major concerns and ethical challenges for practitioners, pressing the need for practical guidelines and actionable recommendations in line with existing ethical principles. Copyright © 2012 Pham and Vinck. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/), which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Application of Seismic Array Processing to Tsunami Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, C.; Meng, L.

2015-12-01

Tsunami wave predictions of the current tsunami warning systems rely on accurate earthquake source inversions of wave height data. They are of limited effectiveness for the near-field areas since the tsunami waves arrive before data are collected. Recent seismic and tsunami disasters have revealed the need for early warning to protect near-source coastal populations. In this work we developed the basis for a tsunami warning system based on rapid earthquake source characterisation through regional seismic array back-projections. We explored rapid earthquake source imaging using onshore dense seismic arrays located at regional distances on the order of 1000 km, which provides faster source images than conventional teleseismic back-projections. We implement this method in a simulated real-time environment, and analysed the 2011 Tohoku earthquake rupture with two clusters of Hi-net stations in Kyushu and Northern Hokkaido, and the 2014 Iquique event with the Earthscope USArray Transportable Array. The results yield reasonable estimates of rupture area, which is approximated by an ellipse and leads to the construction of simple slip models based on empirical scaling of the rupture area, seismic moment and average slip. The slip model is then used as the input of the tsunami simulation package COMCOT to predict the tsunami waves. In the example of the Tohoku event, the earthquake source model can be acquired within 6 minutes from the start of rupture and the simulation of tsunami waves takes less than 2 min, which could facilitate a timely tsunami warning. The predicted arrival time and wave amplitude reasonably fit observations. Based on this method, we propose to develop an automatic warning mechanism that provides rapid near-field warning for areas of high tsunami risk. The initial focus will be Japan, Pacific Northwest and Alaska, where dense seismic networks with the capability of real-time data telemetry and open data accessibility, such as the Japanese HiNet (>800 instruments) and the Earthscope USArray Transportable Array (~400 instruments), are established.

Sensors Provide Early Warning of Biological Threats

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2009-01-01

Early Warning Inc. of Troy, New York, licensed powerful biosensor technology from Ames Research Center. Incorporating carbon nanotubes tipped with single strands of nucleic acid from waterborne pathogens, the sensor can detect even minute amounts of targeted, disease causing bacteria, viruses, and parasites. Early Warning features the NASA biosensor in its water analyzer, which can provide advance alert of potential biological hazards in water used for agriculture, food and beverages, showers, and at beaches and lakes -- within hours instead of the days required by conventional laboratory methods.

Advances in the TRIDEC Cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammitzsch, Martin; Spazier, Johannes; Reißland, Sven

2016-04-01

The TRIDEC Cloud is a platform that merges several complementary cloud-based services for instant tsunami propagation calculations and automated background computation with graphics processing units (GPU), for web-mapping of hazard specific geospatial data, and for serving relevant functionality to handle, share, and communicate threat specific information in a collaborative and distributed environment. The platform offers a modern web-based graphical user interface so that operators in warning centres and stakeholders of other involved parties (e.g. CPAs, ministries) just need a standard web browser to access a full-fledged early warning and information system with unique interactive features such as Cloud Messages and Shared Maps. Furthermore, the TRIDEC Cloud can be accessed in different modes, e.g. the monitoring mode, which provides important functionality required to act in a real event, and the exercise-and-training mode, which enables training and exercises with virtual scenarios re-played by a scenario player. The software system architecture and open interfaces facilitate global coverage so that the system is applicable for any region in the world and allow the integration of different sensor systems as well as the integration of other hazard types and use cases different to tsunami early warning. Current advances of the TRIDEC Cloud platform will be summarized in this presentation.

A new air quality monitoring and early warning system: Air quality assessment and air pollutant concentration prediction.

PubMed

Yang, Zhongshan; Wang, Jian

2017-10-01

Air pollution in many countries is worsening with industrialization and urbanization, resulting in climate change and affecting people's health, thus, making the work of policymakers more difficult. It is therefore both urgent and necessary to establish amore scientific air quality monitoring and early warning system to evaluate the degree of air pollution objectively, and predict pollutant concentrations accurately. However, the integration of air quality assessment and air pollutant concentration prediction to establish an air quality system is not common. In this paper, we propose a new air quality monitoring and early warning system, including an assessment module and forecasting module. In the air quality assessment module, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to determine the main pollutants and evaluate the degree of air pollution more scientifically. In the air pollutant concentration prediction module, a novel hybridization model combining complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition, a modified cuckoo search and differential evolution algorithm, and an Elman neural network, is proposed to improve the forecasting accuracy of six main air pollutant concentrations. To verify the effectiveness of this system, pollutant data for two cities in China are used. The result of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation shows that the major air pollutants in Xi'an and Jinan are PM 10 and PM 2.5 respectively, and that the air quality of Xi'an is better than that of Jinan. The forecasting results indicate that the proposed hybrid model is remarkably superior to all benchmark models on account of its higher prediction accuracy and stability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A possible space-based tsunami early warning system using observations of the tsunami ionospheric hole.

PubMed

Kamogawa, Masashi; Orihara, Yoshiaki; Tsurudome, Chiaki; Tomida, Yuto; Kanaya, Tatsuya; Ikeda, Daiki; Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Kakinami, Yoshihiro; Liu, Jann-Yenq; Toyoda, Atsushi

2016-12-01

Ionospheric plasma disturbances after a large tsunami can be detected by measurement of the total electron content (TEC) between a Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite and its ground-based receivers. TEC depression lasting for a few minutes to tens of minutes termed as tsunami ionospheric hole (TIH) is formed above the tsunami source area. Here we describe the quantitative relationship between initial tsunami height and the TEC depression rate caused by a TIH from seven tsunamigenic earthquakes in Japan and Chile. We found that the percentage of TEC depression and initial tsunami height are correlated and the largest TEC depressions appear 10 to 20 minutes after the main shocks. Our findings imply that Ionospheric TEC measurement using the existing ground receiver networks could be used in an early warning system for near-field tsunamis that take more than 20 minutes to arrive in coastal areas.

Early-warning signals of critical transition: Effect of extrinsic noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Shanshan; Tang, Chao

2018-03-01

Complex dynamical systems often have tipping points and exhibit catastrophic regime shift. Despite the notorious difficulty of predicting such transitions, accumulating studies have suggested the existence of generic early-warning signals (EWSs) preceding upcoming transitions. However, previous theories and models were based on the effect of the intrinsic noise (IN) when a system is approaching a critical point, and did not consider the pervasive environmental fluctuations or the extrinsic noise (EN). Here, we extend previous theory to investigate how the interplay of EN and IN affects EWSs. Stochastic simulations of model systems subject to both IN and EN have verified our theory and demonstrated that EN can dramatically alter and diminish the EWS. This effect is stronger with increasing amplitude and correlation time scale of the EN. In the presence of EN, the EWS can fail to predict or even give a false alarm of critical transitions.

A possible space-based tsunami early warning system using observations of the tsunami ionospheric hole

PubMed Central

Kamogawa, Masashi; Orihara, Yoshiaki; Tsurudome, Chiaki; Tomida, Yuto; Kanaya, Tatsuya; Ikeda, Daiki; Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Kakinami, Yoshihiro; Liu, Jann-Yenq; Toyoda, Atsushi

2016-01-01

Ionospheric plasma disturbances after a large tsunami can be detected by measurement of the total electron content (TEC) between a Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite and its ground-based receivers. TEC depression lasting for a few minutes to tens of minutes termed as tsunami ionospheric hole (TIH) is formed above the tsunami source area. Here we describe the quantitative relationship between initial tsunami height and the TEC depression rate caused by a TIH from seven tsunamigenic earthquakes in Japan and Chile. We found that the percentage of TEC depression and initial tsunami height are correlated and the largest TEC depressions appear 10 to 20 minutes after the main shocks. Our findings imply that Ionospheric TEC measurement using the existing ground receiver networks could be used in an early warning system for near-field tsunamis that take more than 20 minutes to arrive in coastal areas. PMID:27905487

Real-time decision support systems: the famine early warning system network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Verdin, James P.

2010-01-01

A multi-institutional partnership, the US Agency for International Development’s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides routine monitoring of climatic, agricultural, market, and socioeconomic conditions in over 20 countries. FEWS NET supports and informs disaster relief decisions that impact millions of people and involve billions of dollars. In this chapter, we focus on some of FEWS NET’s hydrologic monitoring tools, with a specific emphasis on combining “low frequency” and “high frequency” assessment tools. Low frequency assessment tools, tied to water and food balance estimates, enable us to evaluate and map long-term tendencies in food security. High frequency assessments are supported by agrohydrologic models driven by satellite rainfall estimates, such as the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI). Focusing on eastern Africa, we suggest that both these high and low frequency approaches are necessary to capture the interaction of slow variations in vulnerability and the relatively rapid onset of climatic shocks.

Early Action on the Global Environmental Monitoring System. A Report of the International Environmental Programs Committee.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Academy of Sciences - National Research Council, Washington, DC. Environmental Studies Board.

The Global Environmental Monitoring System (GEMS) is one of four components of Earthwatch, a part of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). The purpose of GEMS is to provide early warning of impending natural or man-induced environmental changes or trends that threaten direct or indirect harm to human health or well-being. In 1975, the…

The GNSS data processing component within the Indonesian tsunami early warning centre provided by GITEWS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartsch, M.; Merx, A.; Falck, C.; Ramatschi, M.

2010-05-01

Introduction Within the GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) project a near real-time GNSS processing system has been developed, which analizes on- and offshore measured GNSS data. It is the first system of its kind that was integrated into an operational tsunami early warning system. (Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning Centre INATEWS, inaugurated at BMKG Jakarta on November, 11th 2008) Brief system description The GNSS data to be processed are received from sensors (GNSS antenna and receiver) installed on buoys, at tide gauges and as real-time reference stations (RTR stations), either stand-alone or co-located with seismic sensors. The GNSS data are transmitted to the warning centre in real-time as a stream (RTR stations) or file-based and are processed in a near real-time data processing chain. The fully automatized system uses the BERNESE GPS software as processing core. Kinematic coordinate timeseries with a resolution of 1 Hz (landbased stations) and 1/3 Hz (buoys) are estimated every five minutes. In case of a recently occured earthquake the processing interval decreases from five to two minutes. All stations are processed with the relative technique (baseline-technique) using GITEWS-stations and stations available via IGS as reference. The most suitable reference stations are choosen by querying a database where continiously monitored quality data of GNSS observations are stored. In case of an earthquake at least one reference station should be located on a different tectonic plate to ensure that relative movements can be detected. The primary source for satellite orbit information is the IGS IGU product. If this source is not available for any reason, the system switches automatically to other orbit sources like CODE products or broadcast ephemeris data. For sensors on land the kinematic coordinates are used to detect deviations from their normal, mean coordinates. The deviations or so called displacements are indicators for land mass movements which can occur, e.g., due to strong earthquakes. The ground motion information is a valuable source for a fast understanding of an earthquake's mechanism and consequences with possible relevance for a potentially following tsunami. Regarding kinematic coordinates of a buoy only the vertical component is of interest as it corresponds to the instant sea level. The kinematic coordinates are delivered to an oceanographic post-processing unit which applies dipping-, tilting- and tidal-corrections to the data. Deviations to the mean sea level are an indicator for a possibly passing tsunami wave. By this means the GNSS system supports the decision finding process whether a tsunami has been released or not. A graphical user interface (GUI) was developed which monitors the whole processing chain from data transmission and GNSS data processing to the displaying of the kinematic coordinate time series. It supports both, a quick view for all staff members at the warning centre (24h/7d shifts) and deeper analysis by GNSS experts. The GNSS GUI system is web-based and allows all views to be displayed on different screens at the same time, even at remote locations. This is part of the concept, as it can support the dialogue between warning centre staff on duty or on standby and sensor station maintenance staff. Acknowledgements The GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) is carried out by a large group of scientists and engineers from (GFZ) German Research Centre for Geosciences and its partners from the German Aerospace Centre (DLR), the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), the GKSS Research Centre, the Konsortium Deutsche Meeresforschung (KDM), the Leibniz Institute for Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), the United Nations University (UNU), the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), the German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) and other international partners. Most relevant partners in Indonesia with respect to the GNSS component of GITEWS are the National Coordinating Agency for Surveys and Mapping (BAKOSURTANAL), the National Metereology and Geophysics Agency (BMG) and the National Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT). Funding is provided by the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF), Grant 03TSU01.

NOAA/National Weather Service Support in Response to the Threat of Debris Flows from the 2009 Station Fire in Los Angeles County: Lessons Learned in Hazard Communications and Public Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, M.; Laber, J. L.; Boldt, E.

2010-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) have developed a prototype debris flow early warning system for Southern California. The system uses USGS-defined rainfall rate thresholds for debris flows and burn area hazard maps to protect interests in and near burn areas of damaging and potentially deadly debris flows. Although common throughout Southern California, as witnessed by the December 25, 2003 storm in which sixteen people were swept to their deaths by debris flows generated from a recent burn area near Devore, debris flows are commonly misunderstood by the public. They are often perceived as rare events, are difficult to warn for with sufficient lead time, and present unique challenges when communicating proper calls to action to best save lives and property. Many improvements to the system have been realized since the project’s inception in 2005, including using more refined rainfall rate thresholds, use of burn area hazard maps, and the establishment of a tiered system to categorize the potential severity of flash floods and debris flows. These efforts have collectively resulted in a reduction of warning false alarms. However, the massive 400,000 hectare 2009 Station burn area in the Angeles National Forest of Los Angeles County has created numerous challenges to the early warning system. The geology of the area burned is highly susceptible to debris flows, due in part to the burn severity, soil types and steep slopes. Most importantly, the burn area is adjacent to and uphill of the highly populated lower foothills of the San Fernando Valley. NOAA/NWS and the USGS have thus worked closely with local response and preparedness agencies to analyze and communicate the threat and assist in developing a unified command response plan in preparation for flash flood and debris flows from this burn area. The early warning system was put to the ultimate test on February 6, 2010 when intense rainfall over the burn area produced very damaging but fortunately nonfatal flash flooding and debris flows. Unfortunately public and local agency response to NWS forecasts, watches, and warnings issued for this event was minimal. Possible causes of, and actions needed to improve upon, this minimal response are examined, including 1) complacency due to previous watch and warning false alarms, 2) underestimating the hazard threat due to local residents having not personally experienced a severe debris flow event in recent history if ever, 3) misinterpretation of NWS point precipitation forecasts and current limits of predictability related to forecasting specific locations and amounts of intense rainfall beyond 12-24 hours, 4) the challenges of ensuring NWS information is consistently received and interpreted among the multiple agencies and jurisdictions of the unified command, and 5) the likelihood that most people did not hear NWS warnings due to the event taking place late at night. Also examined are proper calls to action to protect life and property at a time when evacuations may put people in harm's way.

Building a Communication, Education, an Outreach Program for the ShakeAlert National Earthquake Early Warning Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeGroot, R. M.; Strauss, J. A.; Given, D. D.; Cochran, E. S.; Burkett, E. R.; Long, K.

2016-12-01

Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems can provide as much as tens of seconds of warning to people and automated systems before strong shaking arrives. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners are developing an EEW system for the West Coast of the United States. To be an integral part of successful implementation, EEW engagement programs and materials must integrate with and leverage broader earthquake risk programs. New methods and products for dissemination must be multidisciplinary, cost effective, and consistent with existing hazards education efforts. Our presentation outlines how the USGS and its partners will approach this effort in the context of the EEW system through the work of a multistate and multiagency committee that participates in the design, implementation, and evaluation of a portfolio of programs and products. This committee, referred to as the ShakeAlert Joint Committee for Communication, Education, and Outreach (ShakeAlert CEO), is working to identify, develop, and cultivate partnerships with EEW stakeholders including Federal, State, academic partners, private companies, policy makers, and local organizations. Efforts include developing materials, methods for delivery, and reaching stakeholders with information on EEW, earthquake preparedness, and emergency protective actions. It is essential to develop standards to ensure information communicated via the EEW alerts is consistent across the public and private sector and achieving a common understanding of what actions users take when they receive an EEW warning. The USGS and the participating states and agencies acknowledge that the implementation of EEW is a collective effort requiring the participation of hundreds of stakeholders committed to ensuring public accessibility.

Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risk in Nepal and Their Mitigation Practices in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurung, S.

2017-12-01

Glacial lakes in Nepal face a huge risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) due to the ongoing effects of climate change leading to considerable amount of snow and glacier melt thus weakening the natural barriers holding these high altitude glacial lakes. Nepal is at an ever growing risk every year and always waiting for an inevitable natural disaster. Since GLOF can cause extreme huge loss of human lives and physical properties, it has now become very important to design a proper mechanism which helps in reducing hazards from such events. There is little we can do to stop natural disasters, but we can implement pro-active control measures to minimize the loss. Early Warning System is the provision of timely and effective information, which allows individuals exposed to hazards to take action, avoid or reduce risk to life and property and prepare for effective response. The basic idea behind Early Warning System is that, the earlier and more accurately we are able to predict potential risks associated with natural hazards especially flood, the more likely we will be able to manage and mitigate the disasters' impact on society, economies and environment. We are currently focused on the development of early warning system for Imja Glacial Lake. The objective of developing early warning system for Imja GLOF is to help reduce economic losses and mitigate the number of injuries or deaths by providing information that allows individuals and communities downstream of Imja Lake to protect their lives and properties by using the latest and most advanced technology available. We have installed one Automatic Weather Station near the left lateral moraine of Imja Lake to study the effects of different meteorological parameters so as to predict occurrence of any GLOF event. The sensor includes pluviometer, pyranometer, temperature and humidity sensor, wind sensor, Snowdepth sensor. Two radar level sensors are installed at the outlet of Imja Lake and downstream of Imja river for water level measurement. Also, ten movements and volumetric water content sensors are installed to detect occurrence of any GLOF event.

Debris flow early warning systems in Norway: organization and tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kleivane, I.; Colleuille, H.; Haugen, L. E.; Alve Glad, P.; Devoli, G.

2012-04-01

In Norway, shallow slides and debris flows occur as a combination of high-intensity precipitation, snowmelt, high groundwater level and saturated soil. Many events have occurred in the last decades and are often associated with (or related to) floods events, especially in the Southern of Norway, causing significant damages to roads, railway lines, buildings, and other infrastructures (i.e November 2000; August 2003; September 2005; November 2005; Mai 2008; June and Desember 2011). Since 1989 the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) has had an operational 24 hour flood forecasting system for the entire country. From 2009 NVE is also responsible to assist regions and municipalities in the prevention of disasters posed by landslides and snow avalanches. Besides assisting the municipalities through implementation of digital landslides inventories, susceptibility and hazard mapping, areal planning, preparation of guidelines, realization of mitigation measures and helping during emergencies, NVE is developing a regional scale debris flow warning system that use hydrological models that are already available in the flood warning systems. It is well known that the application of rainfall thresholds is not sufficient to evaluate the hazard for debris flows and shallow slides, and soil moisture conditions play a crucial role in the triggering conditions. The information on simulated soil and groundwater conditions and water supply (rain and snowmelt) based on weather forecast, have proved to be useful variables that indicate the potential occurrence of debris flows and shallow slides. Forecasts of runoff and freezing-thawing are also valuable information. The early warning system is using real-time measurements (Discharge; Groundwater level; Soil water content and soil temperature; Snow water equivalent; Meteorological data) and model simulations (a spatially distributed version of the HBV-model and an adapted version of 1-D soil water and energy balance model COUP). The data are presented in a web- and GIS-based system with daily nationwide maps showing the meteorological and hydrological conditions for the present and the near future from quantitative weather prognosis. In addition a division of the country in homogenous debris flow-prone regions is also under progress based on geomorfological, topographic parameters and loose quaternary deposits distribution. Threshold-levels are being investigated by using statistical analyses of historical debris flows events and measured hydro-meteorological parameters. The debris flow early warning system is currently being tested and is expected to be operational in 2013. Final products will be warning messages and a map showing the different hazard levels, from low to high, indicating the landslide probability and the type of expected damages in a certain area. Many activities are realized in strong collaboration with the road and railway authorities, the geological survey and private consultant companies.

78. View of radar systems technical publication library, transmitter building ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

78. View of radar systems technical publication library, transmitter building no. 102, second floor. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

Expert system for online surveillance of nuclear reactor coolant pumps

DOEpatents

Gross, Kenny C.; Singer, Ralph M.; Humenik, Keith E.

1993-01-01

An expert system for online surveillance of nuclear reactor coolant pumps. This system provides a means for early detection of pump or sensor degradation. Degradation is determined through the use of a statistical analysis technique, sequential probability ratio test, applied to information from several sensors which are responsive to differing physical parameters. The results of sequential testing of the data provide the operator with an early warning of possible sensor or pump failure.

Early Warning of Food Security Crises in Urban Areas: The Case of Harare, Zimbabwe, 2007

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.; Funk, Christopher C.

2008-01-01

In 2007, the citizens of Harare, Zimbabwe began experiencing an intense food security crisis. The crisis, due to a complex mix of poor government policies, high inflation rates and production decline due to drought, resulted in a massive increase in the number of food insecure people in Harare. The international humanitarian aid response to this crisis was largely successful due to the early agreement among donors and humanitarian aid officials as to the size and nature of the problem. Remote sensing enabled an early and decisive movement of resources greatly assisting the delivery of food aid in a timely manner. Remote sensing data gave a clear and compelling assessment of significant crop production shortfalls, and provided donors of humanitarian assistance a single number around which they could come to agreement. This use of remote sensing data typifies how remote sensing may be used in early warning systems in Africa.

A Study about the 3S-based Great Ruins Monitoring and Early-warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xuefeng, W.; Zhongyuan, H.; Gongli, L.; Li, Z.

2015-08-01

Large-scale urbanization construction and new countryside construction, frequent natural disasters, and natural corrosion pose severe threat to the great ruins. It is not uncommon that the cultural relics are damaged and great ruins are occupied. Now the ruins monitoring mainly adopt general monitoring data processing system which can not effectively exert management, display, excavation analysis and data sharing of the relics monitoring data. Meanwhile those general software systems require layout of large number of devices or apparatuses, but they are applied to small-scope relics monitoring only. Therefore, this paper proposes a method to make use of the stereoscopic cartographic satellite technology to improve and supplement the great ruins monitoring index system and combine GIS and GPS to establish a highly automatic, real-time and intelligent great ruins monitoring and early-warning system in order to realize collection, processing, updating, spatial visualization, analysis, distribution and sharing of the monitoring data, and provide scientific and effective data for the relics protection, scientific planning, reasonable development and sustainable utilization.

Towards an Automated Acoustic Detection System for Free Ranging Elephants.

PubMed

Zeppelzauer, Matthias; Hensman, Sean; Stoeger, Angela S

The human-elephant conflict is one of the most serious conservation problems in Asia and Africa today. The involuntary confrontation of humans and elephants claims the lives of many animals and humans every year. A promising approach to alleviate this conflict is the development of an acoustic early warning system. Such a system requires the robust automated detection of elephant vocalizations under unconstrained field conditions. Today, no system exists that fulfills these requirements. In this paper, we present a method for the automated detection of elephant vocalizations that is robust to the diverse noise sources present in the field. We evaluate the method on a dataset recorded under natural field conditions to simulate a real-world scenario. The proposed method outperformed existing approaches and robustly and accurately detected elephants. It thus can form the basis for a future automated early warning system for elephants. Furthermore, the method may be a useful tool for scientists in bioacoustics for the study of wildlife recordings.

Integrating observation and statistical forecasts over sub-Saharan Africa to support Famine Early Warning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Chris; Verdin, James P.; Husak, Gregory

2007-01-01

Famine early warning in Africa presents unique challenges and rewards. Hydrologic extremes must be tracked and anticipated over complex and changing climate regimes. The successful anticipation and interpretation of hydrologic shocks can initiate effective government response, saving lives and softening the impacts of droughts and floods. While both monitoring and forecast technologies continue to advance, discontinuities between monitoring and forecast systems inhibit effective decision making. Monitoring systems typically rely on high resolution satellite remote-sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and rainfall imagery. Forecast systems provide information on a variety of scales and formats. Non-meteorologists are often unable or unwilling to connect the dots between these disparate sources of information. To mitigate these problem researchers at UCSB's Climate Hazard Group, NASA GIMMS and USGS/EROS are implementing a NASA-funded integrated decision support system that combines the monitoring of precipitation and NDVI with statistical one-to-three month forecasts. We present the monitoring/forecast system, assess its accuracy, and demonstrate its application in food insecure sub-Saharan Africa.

Continuous estimates on the earthquake early warning magnitude by use of the near-field acceleration records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jun; Jin, Xing; Wei, Yongxiang; Zhang, Hongcai

2013-10-01

In this article, the seismic records of Japan's Kik-net are selected to measure the acceleration, displacement, and effective peak acceleration of each seismic record within a certain time after P wave, then a continuous estimation is given on earthquake early warning magnitude through statistical analysis method, and Wenchuan earthquake record is utilized to check the method. The results show that the reliability of earthquake early warning magnitude continuously increases with the increase of the seismic information, the biggest residual happens if the acceleration is adopted to fit earthquake magnitude, which may be caused by rich high-frequency components and large dispersion of peak value in acceleration record, the influence caused by the high-frequency components can be effectively reduced if the effective peak acceleration and peak displacement is adopted, it is estimated that the dispersion of earthquake magnitude obviously reduces, but it is easy for peak displacement to be affected by long-period drifting. In various components, the residual enlargement phenomenon at vertical direction is almost unobvious, thus it is recommended in this article that the effective peak acceleration at vertical direction is preferred to estimate earthquake early warning magnitude. Through adopting Wenchuan strong earthquake record to check the method mentioned in this article, it is found that this method can be used to quickly, stably, and accurately estimate the early warning magnitude of this earthquake, which shows that this method is completely applicable for earthquake early warning.

A probabilistic approach of the Flash Flood Early Warning System (FF-EWS) in Catalonia based on radar ensemble generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velasco, David; Sempere-Torres, Daniel; Corral, Carles; Llort, Xavier; Velasco, Enrique

2010-05-01

Early Warning Systems (EWS) are commonly identified as the most efficient tools in order to improve the preparedness and risk management against heavy rains and Flash Floods (FF) with the objective of reducing economical losses and human casualties. In particular, flash floods affecting torrential Mediterranean catchments are a key element to be incorporated within operational EWSs. The characteristic high spatial and temporal variability of the storms requires high-resolution data and methods to monitor/forecast the evolution of rainfall and its hydrological impact in small and medium torrential basins. A first version of an operational FF-EWS has been implemented in Catalonia (NE Spain) under the name of EHIMI system (Integrated Tool for Hydrometeorological Forecasting) with the support of the Catalan Water Agency (ACA) and the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC). Flash flood warnings are issued based on radar-rainfall estimates. Rainfall estimation is performed on radar observations with high spatial and temporal resolution (1km2 and 10 minutes) in order to adapt the warning scale to the 1-km grid of the EWS. The method is based on comparing observed accumulated rainfall against rainfall thresholds provided by the regional Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. The so-called "aggregated rainfall warning" at every river cell is obtained as the spatially averaged rainfall over its associated upstream draining area. Regarding the time aggregation of rainfall, the critical duration is thought to be an accumulation period similar to the concentration time of each cachtment. The warning is issued once the forecasted rainfall accumulation exceeds the rainfall thresholds mentioned above, which are associated to certain probability of occurrence. Finally, the hazard warning is provided and shown to the decision-maker in terms of exceeded return periods at every river cell covering the whole area of Catalonia. The objective of the present work includes the probabilistic component to the FF-EWS. As a first step, we have incorporated the uncertainty in rainfall estimates and forecasts based on an ensemble of equiprobable rainfall scenarios. The presented study has focused on a number of rainfall events and the performance of the FF-EWS evaluated in terms of its ability to produce probabilistic hazard warnings for decision-making support.

System development over the monitoring for the purpose of early warning of population from the threat of landslides. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakhidova, D. V.; Kadyrhodjaev, A.; Scientific Team Of Hydroengeo Institute On Natural Hazards

2010-12-01

Well-timed warning of the population about possible landslide threat is one of the main positions in order to provide safe and stable country development. The system of monitoring over dangerous geological processes includes such components, as observation, forecast, control and management. Aspects of forecasting take special place. Having wide row of observations there can be possible to reveal some regularity of the phenomena, basing on which, it is possible to proceed forecasting. We looked through many approaches of forecasting that are used in different countries. The analysis of the available work has allowed to draw up a conclusion that while referring to the question of landslide forecasting, it is necessary to approach in system form, taking into account interacting components of the nature. The study of landslide processes has shown that these processes lies within the framework of engineering-geological directions of the science and also interacts with tectonics, geomorphology, hydrogeology, hydrology, climate change, technogenesis and etc. Thereby, the necessity of system approach, achievements of modern science and technology the most expedient approach to make a decision at landslide forecasting is probabilistic-statistical method with complex use of geological and satellite data, specific images processed through geoinformation systems. In this connection, probabilistic-statistical approach, reflecting natural characteristics of interacting natural system, allows to take into account multi-factored processes of landslide activations. Among the many factors, influencing on landslide activation, there exist ones that are not amenable to numerical feature. The parameters of these factors have descriptive, qualitative, rather than quantitative nature. Leaving these factors with lack of attention is absolutely not reasonable. Proposed approach has one more advantage, which allows taking into account not only numerical, but also non-numeric parameters. Combination of multidisciplinary, systematic feature, multifactorness of the account, probabilistic and statistical methods of the calculation, complex use of geological and satellite data, using modern technology processing and analysis of information - all these aspects were collected in one at proposed by authors approach to solve the question of defining the area of possible landslide activation. Proposed by authors method could be a part of the monitoring system for early warning of landslide activation. Thus, the authors propose to initialize the project “System development over the monitoring for the purpose of early warning of population from the threat of landslides”. In the process of project implementation there to be revealed such results like: 1. System of Geo-indicators in order to early warn quick-running landslide processes. 2. United interconnected system for remote, surface and underground types of observations over Geo-indicators. 3. Notification system of population about forthcoming threat by means of alerts, light signals, mobilization of municipalities and related ministries. In the result of project implementation there considered to reveal economic, technical, and social outputs.

The performance review of EEWS(Earthquake Early Warning System) about Gyeongju earthquakes with Ml 5.1 and Ml 5.8 in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Jung-Ho; Chi, Heon-Cheol; Lim, In-Seub; Seong, Yun-Jeong; Park, Jihwan

2017-04-01

EEW(Earthquake Early Warning) service to the public has been officially operated by KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) from 2015 in Korea. For the KMA's official EEW service, KIGAM has adopted ElarmS from UC Berkeley BSL and modified local magnitude relation, 1-D travel time curves and association procedures with real time waveform from about 201 seismic stations of KMA, KIGAM, KINS and KEPRI. There were two moderate size earthquakes with magnitude Ml 5.1 and Ml 5.8 close to Gyeongju city located at the southeastern part of Korea on Sep. 12. 2016. We have checked the performance of EEWS(Earthquake Early Warning System) named as TrigDB by KIGAM reviewing of these two Gyeongju earthquakes. The nearest station to epicenters of two earthquakes Ml 5.1(35.7697 N, 129.1904 E) and Ml 5.8(35.7632 N, 129.1898 E) was MKL which detected P phases in about 2.1 and 3.6 seconds after the origin times respectively. The first events were issued in 6.3 and 7.0 seconds from each origin time. Because of the unstable results on the early steps due to very few stations and unexpected automated analysis, KMA has the policy to wait for more 20 seconds for confirming the reliability. For these events KMA published EEW alarms in about 26 seconds after origin times with M 5.3 and M 5.9 respectively.

An analysis of an early-warning system to reduce abortions in dairy cattle in Denmark incorporating both financial and epidemiologic aspects.

PubMed

Carpenter, Tim E; Chrièl, Mariann; Greiner, Matthias

2007-01-16

Emergency preparedness relies on the ability to detect patterns in rare incidents in an early stage of an outbreak in order to implement relevant actions. Early warning of an abortion storm as a result of infection with a notifiable disease, e.g. brucellosis, bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) or infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR), is a significant surveillance tool. This study used data from 507 large Danish dairy herds. A modified two-stage method for detecting an unusual increase in the abortion incidence was applied to the data. An alarm was considered true if an abortion were detected in the month following the alarm month, otherwise false. The total number of abortions that could potentially be avoided if effective action were taken ranged from 769 (22.9%) to 10 (0.3%), as the number of abortions required to set the alarm increased from 1 to 6. The vast majority of abortions could, however, not be predicted, much less prevented, given this early-warning system. The false to true alarm ratio was reduced when the number of abortions that set the alarm increased. The financial scenarios evaluated demonstrated that the value of an abortion, the cost of responding to an alarm and the efficiency of the actions are important for decision making when reporting an alarm. The presented model can readily be extended to other disease problems and multiple-time periods.

Development of a GIS-based integrated framework for coastal seiches monitoring and forecasting: A North Jiangsu shoal case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Rufu; Lin, Liangzhao

2017-06-01

Coastal seiches have become an increasingly important issue in coastal science and present many challenges, particularly when attempting to provide warning services. This paper presents the methodologies, techniques and integrated services adopted for the design and implementation of a Seiches Monitoring and Forecasting Integration Framework (SMAF-IF). The SMAF-IF is an integrated system with different types of sensors and numerical models and incorporates the Geographic Information System (GIS) and web techniques, which focuses on coastal seiche events detection and early warning in the North Jiangsu shoal, China. The in situ sensors perform automatic and continuous monitoring of the marine environment status and the numerical models provide the meteorological and physical oceanographic parameter estimates. A model outputs processing software was developed in C# language using ArcGIS Engine functions, which provides the capabilities of automatically generating visualization maps and warning information. Leveraging the ArcGIS Flex API and ASP.NET web services, a web based GIS framework was designed to facilitate quasi real-time data access, interactive visualization and analysis, and provision of early warning services for end users. The integrated framework proposed in this study enables decision-makers and the publics to quickly response to emergency coastal seiche events and allows an easy adaptation to other regional and scientific domains related to real-time monitoring and forecasting.

76 FR 34670 - Applications for New Awards; Gaining Early Awareness and Readiness for Undergraduate Programs

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-14

... participating in programs, such as GEAR UP, that offer additional services designed to increase student success... education or using such data to develop early warning indicator systems designed to prevent students from... report on Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) completion, and will update the survey...

Climate related natural hazards management in the vulnerable regions of Uzbekistan - experiences in the frame of projects Climate Risk Management in Uzbekistan (CRM-Uz) and Water in Central Asia (CAWa)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merkushkin, Alexander; Gafurov, Abror; Agaltseva, Natalya; Pak, Alexander; Mannig, Birgit; Paeth, Heiko; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Unger-Shayesteh, Katy

2014-05-01

Increased frequency of natural hazards under conditions of observed climate change in Uzbekistan has become challenging concern and shows the need to develop more effective climate risk mechanisms towards improving the security of society and sustainable development. In the framework of presented study, the importance of drought monitoring and methodologies for early warning for such purposes in Uzbekistan are demonstrated. For the conditions of Uzbekistan, droughts are most dangerous climate related natural phenomenon. Therefore, the CRM-Uz Project on Climate Risk Management was established with focus on reducing climate risks, strengthening adaptive capacity for stimulating the development of early warning mechanisms, as well as to build up the basis for long-term investments. This serves to increase resilience to climate impacts in the country. In the frame of the CRM-Uz Project, Drought Early Warning System (DEWS), has been developed and implemented in one of the southern provinces of Uzbekistan (Kashkadarya). The main task of DEWS is to provide population with information on the possibility of upcoming drought season in advance. DEWS is used for the assessment, monitoring, prevention, early warning and decision making in this region. Such early warning system provides the required information to undertake appropriate measures against drought and to mitigate its adverse effects to society. It is clear that during years with expected drought the hydrological forecasts become much more important. Complex mathematical model which simulates of run-off formation as a basis of DEWS provides the seasonal hydrological forecasts that are used to inform all concerned sectors, especially the agricultural sector on water availability during the vegetation period. In the frame of cooperation with German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) within the CAWa Project, the DEWS was extended through implementation of MODSNOW - the operational tool for snow cover monitoring at the Drought Monitoring Centre at UzHydromet. The upgrade of the DEWS withMODSNOW strengthens DEWS's capacity in terms of improvement the hydrological forecasting. Moreover, based on climate scenarios provided within the CAWa project by the University of Würzburg, the regional hydrological model AISHF was used to asses medium and long term water availability in the Kashkadarya River which indicates a reduction of water resources in the selected basin in the future.

Early warning of climate tipping points

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenton, Timothy M.

2011-07-01

A climate 'tipping point' occurs when a small change in forcing triggers a strongly nonlinear response in the internal dynamics of part of the climate system, qualitatively changing its future state. Human-induced climate change could push several large-scale 'tipping elements' past a tipping point. Candidates include irreversible melt of the Greenland ice sheet, dieback of the Amazon rainforest and shift of the West African monsoon. Recent assessments give an increased probability of future tipping events, and the corresponding impacts are estimated to be large, making them significant risks. Recent work shows that early warning of an approaching climate tipping point is possible in principle, and could have considerable value in reducing the risk that they pose.

Comparing national infectious disease surveillance systems: China and the Netherlands.

PubMed

Vlieg, Willemijn L; Fanoy, Ewout B; van Asten, Liselotte; Liu, Xiaobo; Yang, Jun; Pilot, Eva; Bijkerk, Paul; van der Hoek, Wim; Krafft, Thomas; van der Sande, Marianne A; Liu, Qi-Yong

2017-05-08

Risk assessment and early warning (RAEW) are essential components of any infectious disease surveillance system. In light of the International Health Regulations (IHR)(2005), this study compares the organisation of RAEW in China and the Netherlands. The respective approaches towards surveillance of arboviral disease and unexplained pneumonia were analysed to gain a better understanding of the RAEW mode of operation. This study may be used to explore options for further strengthening of global collaboration and timely detection and surveillance of infectious disease outbreaks. A qualitative study design was used, combining data retrieved from the literature and from semi-structured interviews with Chinese (5 national-level and 6 provincial-level) and Dutch (5 national-level) experts. The results show that some differences exist such as in the use of automated electronic components of the early warning system in China ('CIDARS'), compared to a more limited automated component in the Netherlands ('barometer'). Moreover, RAEW units in the Netherlands focus exclusively on infectious diseases, while China has a broader 'all hazard' approach (including for example chemical incidents). In the Netherlands, veterinary specialists take part at the RAEW meetings, to enable a structured exchange/assessment of zoonotic signals. Despite these differences, the main conclusion is that for the two infections studied, the early warning system in China and the Netherlands are remarkably similar considering their large differences in infectious disease history, population size and geographical setting. Our main recommendations are continued emphasis on international corporation that requires insight into national infectious disease surveillance systems, the usage of a One Health approach in infectious disease surveillance, and further exploration/strengthening of a combined syndromic and laboratory surveillance system.

Early Warning Reporting System Improvement Act of 2014

THOMAS, 113th Congress

Sen. Markey, Edward J. [D-MA

2014-03-25

Senate - 03/25/2014 Read twice and referred to the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status IntroducedHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

Environment Agency England flood warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strong, Chris; Walters, Mark; Haynes, Elizabeth; Dobson, Peter

2015-04-01

Context In England around 5 million homes are at risk of flooding. We invest significantly in flood prevention and management schemes but we can never prevent all flooding. Early alerting systems are fundamental to helping us reduce the impacts of flooding. The Environment Agency has had the responsibility for flood warning since 1996. In 2006 we invested in a new dissemination system that would send direct messages to pre-identified recipients via a range of channels. Since then we have continuously improved the system and service we offer. In 2010 we introduced an 'opt-out' service where we pre-registered landline numbers in flood risk areas, significantly increasing the customer base. The service has performed exceptionally well under intense flood conditions. Over a period of 3 days in December 2013, when England was experiencing an east coast storm surge, the system sent nearly 350,000 telephone messages, 85,000 emails and 70,000 text messages, with a peak call rate of around 37,000 per hour and 100% availability. The Floodline Warnings Direct (FWD) System FWD provides warnings in advance of flooding so that people at risk and responders can take action to minimise the impact of the flood. Warnings are sent via telephone, fax, text message, pager or e-mail to over 1.1 million properties located within flood risk areas in England. Triggers for issuing alerts and warnings include attained and forecast river levels and rainfall in some rapidly responding locations. There are three levels of warning: Flood Alert, Flood Warning and Severe Flood Warning, and a stand down message. The warnings can be updated to include relevant information to help inform those at risk. Working with our current provider Fujitsu, the system is under a programme of continuous improvement including expanding the 'opt-out' service to mobile phone numbers registered to at risk addresses, allowing mobile registration to the system for people 'on the move' and providing access to registration via third parties. The 'Future Flood Warning System' Our research shows that people want more choice on how they access and receive warnings. Many want a service tailored to their own risk, rather than that of their community. They also want more information about the forecast and the situation to that they can make decisions personal to their circumstances. Our future flood warning system will build upon the success of our existing service and will aim to: • provide our customers with a more flexible and personalised self-service approach which caters for the diverse range of user needs • alert people wherever they are, not just in properties • be flexible enough to respond to user feedback to make improvements and utilise new technology as it becomes available • provide real-time visualisation of system performance, to assist our flood response • capture greater levels of information from the recipients of our warnings • be efficient for operators of the system and utilise automation where relevant • take a risk based approach to resilience to provide the highest level of reliability when needed at a reduced cost

GITEWS, an extensible and open integration platform for manifold sensor systems and processing components based on Sensor Web Enablement and the principles of Service Oriented Architectures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haener, Rainer; Waechter, Joachim; Fleischer, Jens; Herrnkind, Stefan; Schwarting, Herrmann

2010-05-01

The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) is a multifaceted system consisting of various sensor types like seismometers, sea level sensors or GPS stations, and processing components, all with their own system behavior and proprietary data structure. To operate a warning chain, beginning from measurements scaling up to warning products, all components have to interact in a correct way, both syntactically and semantically. Designing the system great emphasis was laid on conformity to the Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) specification by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). The technical infrastructure, the so called Tsunami Service Bus (TSB) follows the blueprint of Service Oriented Architectures (SOA). The TSB is an integration concept (SWE) where functionality (observe, task, notify, alert, and process) is grouped around business processes (Monitoring, Decision Support, Sensor Management) and packaged as interoperable services (SAS, SOS, SPS, WNS). The benefits of using a flexible architecture together with SWE lead to an open integration platform: • accessing and controlling heterogeneous sensors in a uniform way (Functional Integration) • assigns functionality to distinct services (Separation of Concerns) • allows resilient relationship between systems (Loose Coupling) • integrates services so that they can be accessed from everywhere (Location Transparency) • enables infrastructures which integrate heterogeneous applications (Encapsulation) • allows combination of services (Orchestration) and data exchange within business processes Warning systems will evolve over time: New sensor types might be added, old sensors will be replaced and processing components will be improved. From a collection of few basic services it shall be possible to compose more complex functionality essential for specific warning systems. Given these requirements a flexible infrastructure is a prerequisite for sustainable systems and their architecture must be tailored for evolution. The use of well-known techniques and widely used open source software implementing industrial standards reduces the impact of service modifications allowing the evolution of a system as a whole. GITEWS implemented a solution to feed sensor raw data from any (remote) system into the infrastructure. Specific dispatchers enable plugging in sensor-type specific processing without changing the architecture. Client components don't need to be adjusted if new sensor-types or individuals are added to the system, because they access them via standardized services. One of the outstanding features of service-oriented architectures is the possibility to compose new services from existing ones. The so called orchestration, allows the definition of new warning processes which can be adapted easily to new requirements. This approach has following advantages: • With implementing SWE it is possible to establish the "detection" and integration of sensors via the internet. Thus a system of systems combining early warning functionality at different levels of detail is feasible. • Any institution could add both its own components as well as components from third parties if they are developed in conformance to SOA principles. In a federation an institution keeps the ownership of its data and decides which data are provided by a service and when. • A system can be deployed at minor costs as a core for own development at any institution and thus enabling autonomous early warning- or monitoring systems. The presentation covers both design and various instantiations (live demonstration) of the GITEWS architecture. Experiences concerning the design and complexity of SWE will be addressed in detail. A substantial amount of attention is laid on the techniques and methods of extending the architecture, adapting proprietary components to SWE services and encoding, and their orchestration in high level workflows and processes. Furthermore the potential of the architecture concerning adaptive behavior, collaboration across boundaries and semantic interoperability will be addressed.

Geological hazards: from early warning systems to public health toolkits.

PubMed

Samarasundera, Edgar; Hansell, Anna; Leibovici, Didier; Horwell, Claire J; Anand, Suchith; Oppenheimer, Clive

2014-11-01

Extreme geological events, such as earthquakes, are a significant global concern and sometimes their consequences can be devastating. Geographic information plays a critical role in health protection regarding hazards, and there are a range of initiatives using geographic information to communicate risk as well as to support early warning systems operated by geologists. Nevertheless we consider there to remain shortfalls in translating information on extreme geological events into health protection tools, and suggest that social scientists have an important role to play in aiding the development of a new generation of toolkits aimed at public health practitioners. This viewpoint piece reviews the state of the art in this domain and proposes potential contributions different stakeholder groups, including social scientists, could bring to the development of new toolkits. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing Potential of VIIRS Data for Contribution to a Forest Threat Early Warning System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spruce, Joseph P.

2007-01-01

This viewgraph presentation reviews the contributions by the Rapid Prototyping Capability (RPC) towards using Visible Infrared Imager / Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data in assessing the damage to forests. The Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003 mandates development of national Early Warning System (EWS) for forest threat monitoring and mitigation. NASA Stennis is working with the US Forest Service to develop needed components of this EWS. The use of MODIS data for monitoring forest disturbance at broad regional scales is a componet of this program. This RPC experiment was initiated to assess potential of the MODIS follow-on, VIIRS, for monitoring forest disturbance at broad scales and thereby contributing to the EWS. This presentation reviews the potential use of the VIIRS to examine the damage to forests caused by gyspy moths in the West Virginia and Virginia area.

The underutilization of street markets as a source of food security indicators in famine early warning systems: a case study of Ethiopia.

PubMed

Companion, Michèle

2008-09-01

Famine Early Warning Systems (EWS) are reliant on data aggregated from multiple sources. Consequently, they are often insensitive to localized changes in food security status, leading to delayed response or interventions. While price and infrastructural data are often gathered, this case study suggests that local street markets and vendor knowledge are underutilized. Few efforts have been made to monitor systematically the street markets as an indicator of local stressors. Findings from Ethiopia show that knowledge generated by expanding food security indicators in this sector can be used in combination with EWS to facilitate earlier intervention in, or to monitor more effectively, on-going humanitarian crises. Indicators developed from this study are accurate, cost effective, and sensitive to local climatic and food stressors.

Early warning of footpad dermatitis and hockburn in broiler chicken flocks using optical flow, bodyweight and water consumption.

PubMed

Dawkins, M S; Roberts, S J; Cain, R J; Nickson, T; Donnelly, C A

2017-05-20

Footpad dermatitis and hockburn are serious welfare and economic issues for the production of broiler (meat) chickens. The authors here describe the use of an inexpensive camera system that monitors the movements of broiler flocks throughout their lives and suggest that it is possible to predict, even in young birds, the cross-sectional prevalence at slaughter of footpad dermatitis and hockburn before external signs are visible. The skew and kurtosis calculated from the authors' camera-based optical flow system had considerably more power to predict these outcomes in the 50 flocks reported here than water consumption, bodyweight or mortality and therefore have the potential to inform improved flock management through giving farmers early warning of welfare issues. Further trials are underway to establish the generality of the results. British Veterinary Association.

[Health threats and health system crises. An approach to early warning and response. 2008 SESPAS Report].

PubMed

Simón Soria, Fernando; Guillén Enríquez, Francisco Javier

2008-04-01

The world is changing more and faster than ever before. New diseases are coming to light each year, controlled diseases are reemerging as potential threats, and natural or man-made disasters are increasingly affecting human health. The "International Health Regulations (2005)" reflect the changes in the response of public health to this new situation. Surveillance of specific diseases and predefined control measures have been replaced by surveillance of public health events of international concern and control measures adapted to each situation. The public health events of international interest are characterized by their seriousness, predictability, the risk of international spread and potential for travel or trade restrictions. The development of the European Early Warning and Response System in 1998 and the creation of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control in 2005 demonstrate political commitment in Europe, with early detection of and response to public health threats. However, timely risk evaluation and response at a national level requires improved data digitalization and accessibility, automatic notification processes, data analysis and dissemination of information, the combination of information from multiple sources and adaptation of public health services. The autonomous regions in Spain are initiating this adaptation process, but interoperability between systems and the development of guidelines for a coordinated response should be steered by the National Interregional Health Council and coordinated by the Ministry of Health. Efficient early warning systems of health threats that allow for a timely response and reduce uncertainty about information would help to minimize the risk of public health crises. The profile of public health threats is nonspecific. Early detection of threats requires access to information from multiple sources and efficient risk assessment. Key factors for improving the response to public health threats are the development of surveillance methods and operational research in public health.

Clinical significance of automatic warning function of cardiac remote monitoring systems in preventing acute cardiac episodes

PubMed Central

Chen, Shou-Qiang; Xing, Shan-Shan; Gao, Hai-Qing

2014-01-01

Objective: In addition to ambulatory Holter electrocardiographic recording and transtelephonic electrocardiographic monitoring (TTM), a cardiac remote monitoring system can provide an automatic warning function through the general packet radio service (GPRS) network, enabling earlier diagnosis, treatment and improved outcome of cardiac diseases. The purpose of this study was to estimate its clinical significance in preventing acute cardiac episodes. Methods: Using 2 leads (V1 and V5 leads) and the automatic warning mode, 7160 patients were tested with a cardiac remote monitoring system from October 2004 to September 2007. If malignant arrhythmias or obvious ST-T changes appeared in the electrocardiogram records was automatically transferred to the monitoring center, the patient and his family members were informed, and the corresponding precautionary or therapeutic measures were implemented immediately. Results: In our study, 274 cases of malignant arrhythmia, including sinus standstill and ventricular tachycardia, and 43 cases of obvious ST-segment elevation were detected and treated. Because of early detection, there was no death or deformity. Conclusions: A cardiac remote monitoring system providing an automatic warning function can play an important role in preventing acute cardiac episodes. PMID:25674124

The International Platform on Earthquake Early Warning Systems (IP-EEWS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres, Jair; Fanchiotti, Margherita

2017-04-01

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 recognizes the need to "substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and assessments to the people by 2030" as one of its global targets (target "g"). While considerable progress has been made in recent decades, early warning systems (EWSs) continue to be less developed for geo-hazards and significant challenges remain in advancing the development of EWSs for specific hazards, particularly for fastest onset hazards such as earthquakes. An earthquake early warning system (EEWS) helps in disseminating timely information about potentially catastrophic earthquake hazards to the public, emergency managers and the private sector to provide enough time to implement automatized emergency measures. At the same time, these systems help to reduce considerably the CO2 emissions produced by the catastrophic impacts and subsequent effects of earthquakes, such as those generated by fires, collapses, and pollution (among others), as well as those produced in the recovery and reconstruction processes. In recent years, EEWSs have been developed independently in few countries: EEWSs have shown operational in Japan and Mexico, while other regions in California (USA), Turkey, Italy, Canada, South Korea and China (including Taiwan) are in the development stages or under restricted applications. Many other countries in the Indian Subcontinent, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, Eastern Africa, Southeast Africa, as well as Central America, South America and the Caribbean, are located in some of the most seismically active regions in the world, or present moderate seismicity but high vulnerability, and would strongly benefit from the development of EEWSs. Given that, in many instances, the development of an EEWS still requires further testing, increased density coverage in seismic observation stations, regional coordination, and further scientific understanding, there is a strong need to enhance the technical and operational capacities required for these systems and to further understand the implications for policy. In an effort to address this gap, in December 2015, UNESCO launched the International Platform on Earthquake Early Warning Systems (IP-EEWS). The main objective of the Platform is to assess the current state of the art in the development and operationalisation of EEWS globally, foster dialogue and international cooperation for capacity building around these systems, and therefore promote and strengthen EEWS in earthquake-prone countries worldwide. This paper will discuss the opportunities and challenges for the development and operationalisation of these systems, as well as the specific aim, objectives and expected contributions of this newly established Platform. The following ten countries are already represented in IP-EEWS through leading scientific experts in top institutions: USA (University of California Berkeley), Japan (Meteorological Research Institute), Mexico (Centro de Instrumentacion y Registro Sismico), Italy (University of Naples Federico II), Switzerland (ETH - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich), Spain (Universidad Complutense de Madrid), Turkey (Kandili Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Boǧaziçi University), Germany (GFZ - German Research Centre for Geosciences), China (University of Beijing), and Romania (National Institute for Earth Physics). More countries are expected to join the initiative.

RED Alert – Early warning or detection of global re-emerging infectious disease (RED)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deshpande, Alina

This is the PDF of a presentation for a webinar given by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) on the early warning or detection of global re-emerging infectious disease (RED). First, there is an overview of LANL biosurveillance tools. Then, information is given about RED Alert. Next, a demonstration is given of a component prototype. RED Alert is an analysis tool that can provide early warning or detection of the re-emergence of an infectious disease at the global level, but through a local lens.

A Drought Early Warning System Using System Dynamics Model and Seasonal Climate Forecasts: a case study in Hsinchu, Taiwan.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tien, Yu-Chuan; Tung, Ching-Ping; Liu, Tzu-Ming; Lin, Chia-Yu

2016-04-01

In the last twenty years, Hsinchu, a county of Taiwan, has experienced a tremendous growth in water demand due to the development of Hsinchu Science Park. In order to fulfill the water demand, the government has built the new reservoir, Baoshan second reservoir. However, short term droughts still happen. One of the reasons is that the water level of the reservoirs in Hsinchu cannot be reasonably forecasted, which sometimes even underestimates the severity of drought. The purpose of this study is to build a drought early warning system that projects the water levels of two important reservoirs, Baoshan and Baoshan second reservoir, and also the spatial distribution of water shortagewith the lead time of three months. Furthermore, this study also attempts to assist the government to improve water resources management. Hence, a system dynamics model of Touchien River, which is the most important river for public water supply in Hsinchu, is developed. The model consists of several important subsystems, including two reservoirs, water treatment plants and agricultural irrigation districts. Using the upstream flow generated by seasonal weather forecasting data, the model is able to simulate the storage of the two reservoirs and the distribution of water shortage. Moreover, the model can also provide the information under certain emergency scenarios, such as the accident or failure of a water treatment plant. At last, the performance of the proposed method and the original water resource management method that the government used were also compared. Keyword: Water Resource Management, Hydrology, Seasonal Climate Forecast, Reservoir, Early Warning, Drought

The Early-Warning System for incoming storm surge and tide in the Republic of Mauritius

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogaard, Tom; de Lima Rego, Joao; Vatvani, Deepak; Virasami, Renganaden; Verlaan, Martin

2016-04-01

The Republic of Mauritius (ROM) is a group of islands in the South West of the Indian Ocean, consisting of the main islands of Mauritius, Rodrigues and Agalega and the archipelago of Saint Brandon. The ROM is particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, especially in the coastal zone, where a convergence of accelerating sea level rise and increasing intensity of tropical cyclones is expected to result in considerable economic loss, humanitarian stresses, and environmental degradation. Storm surges and swell waves are expected to be aggravated through sea level rise and climate change effects on weather patterns. Adaptation to increased vulnerability requires a re-evaluation of existing preparedness measures. The focus of this project is on more effective preparedness and issuing of alerts developing a fully-automated Early-Warning System for incoming storm surge and tide, together with the Mauritius Meteorological Services and the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Centre (NDRRMC), such that coastal communities in Mauritius, Rodrigues and Agalega Islands are able to evacuate timely and safely in case of predicted extreme water levels. The Mauritius Early-Warning System for storm surge and tide was implemented using software from Deltares' Open-Source and free software Community. A set of five depth-averaged Delft3D-FLOW hydrodynamic models are run every six-hours with a forecast horizon of three days, simulating water levels along the coast of the three main islands. Two regional models of horizontal resolution 5km force the three detailed models of 500m resolution; all models are forced at the surface by the 0.25° NOAA/GFS meteorological forecasts. In addition, our Wind-Enhancement Scheme is used to blend detailed cyclone track bulletin's info with the larger-scale Numerical Weather Predictions. Measured data is retrieved near real-time from available Automatic Weather Stations. All these workflows are managed by the operational platform software, Delft-FEWS. The presently operational Mauritius Early-Warning System produces a set of intuitive tables for each island, containing time- and space-varying information on threshold crossings by predicted water levels. At multiple locations for each island of the ROM, the operator is informed in one glance about the recommended preparedness level, from "Safe" to "Watch", "Alert" or "Warning" based on water level forecasts. The HTML page was designed together with the MMS and the NDRRMC, in order to be easy to interpret and disseminate by local authorities.

Implementation of Malaria Dynamic Models in Municipality Level Early Warning Systems in Colombia. Part I: Description of Study Sites

PubMed Central

Ruiz, Daniel; Cerón, Viviana; Molina, Adriana M.; Quiñónes, Martha L.; Jiménez, Mónica M.; Ahumada, Martha; Gutiérrez, Patricia; Osorio, Salua; Mantilla, Gilma; Connor, Stephen J.; Thomson, Madeleine C.

2014-01-01

As part of the Integrated National Adaptation Pilot project and the Integrated Surveillance and Control System, the Colombian National Institute of Health is working on the design and implementation of a Malaria Early Warning System framework, supported by seasonal climate forecasting capabilities, weather and environmental monitoring, and malaria statistical and dynamic models. In this report, we provide an overview of the local ecoepidemiologic settings where four malaria process-based mathematical models are currently being implemented at a municipal level. The description includes general characteristics, malaria situation (predominant type of infection, malaria-positive cases data, malaria incidence, and seasonality), entomologic conditions (primary and secondary vectors, mosquito densities, and feeding frequencies), climatic conditions (climatology and long-term trends), key drivers of epidemic outbreaks, and non-climatic factors (populations at risk, control campaigns, and socioeconomic conditions). Selected pilot sites exhibit different ecoepidemiologic settings that must be taken into account in the development of the integrated surveillance and control system. PMID:24891460

Immediate causality network of stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Li; Qiu, Lu; Gu, Changgui; Yang, Huijie

2018-02-01

Extensive works show that a network of stocks within a single stock market stores rich information on evolutionary behaviors of the system, such as collapses and/or crises. But a financial event covers usually several markets or even the global financial system. This mismatch of scale leads to lack of concise information to coordinate the event. In this work by using the transfer entropy we reconstruct the influential network between ten typical stock markets distributed in the world. Interesting findings include, before a financial crisis the connection strength reaches a maximum, which can act as an early warning signal of financial crises. The markets in America are monodirectionally and strongly influenced by that in Europe and act as the center. Some strongly linked pairs have also close correlations. The findings are helpful in understanding the evolution and modelling the dynamical process of the global financial system. This method can be extended straightly to find early warning signals for physiological and ecological systems, etc.

Research on capability of detecting ballistic missile by near space infrared system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Li; Sheng, Wen; Jiang, Wei; Jiang, Feng

2018-01-01

The infrared detection technology of ballistic missile based on near space platform can effectively make up the shortcomings of high-cost of traditional early warning satellites and the limited earth curvature of ground-based early warning radar. In terms of target detection capability, aiming at the problem that the formula of the action distance based on contrast performance ignores the background emissivity in the calculation process and the formula is only valid for the monochromatic light, an improved formula of the detecting range based on contrast performance is proposed. The near space infrared imaging system parameters are introduced, the expression of the contrastive action distance formula based on the target detection of the near space platform is deduced. The detection range of the near space infrared system for the booster stage ballistic missile skin, the tail nozzle and the tail flame is calculated. The simulation results show that the near-space infrared system has the best effect on the detection of tail-flame radiation.

Early Warning Look Ahead Metrics: The Percent Milestone Backlog Metric

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shinn, Stephen A.; Anderson, Timothy P.

2017-01-01

All complex development projects experience delays and corresponding backlogs of their project control milestones during their acquisition lifecycles. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Projects Directorate (FPD) teamed with The Aerospace Corporation (Aerospace) to develop a collection of Early Warning Look Ahead metrics that would provide GSFC leadership with some independent indication of the programmatic health of GSFC flight projects. As part of the collection of Early Warning Look Ahead metrics, the Percent Milestone Backlog metric is particularly revealing, and has utility as a stand-alone execution performance monitoring tool. This paper describes the purpose, development methodology, and utility of the Percent Milestone Backlog metric. The other four Early Warning Look Ahead metrics are also briefly discussed. Finally, an example of the use of the Percent Milestone Backlog metric in providing actionable insight is described, along with examples of its potential use in other commodities.

Early warning method of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods based on temperature and rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jingjing; Su, Pengcheng; Cheng, Zunlan

2017-04-01

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are serious disasters in glacial areas. At present, glaciers are retreating while glacial lake area and the outburst risk increases due to the global warming. Therefore, the research of early warning method of GLOFs is important to prevent and reduce the disasters. This paper provides an early warning method using the temperature and rainfall as indices. The daily growth rate of positive antecedent accumulative temperature and the antecedent thirty days accumulative precipitation are calculated for 21 events of GLOF before 2010, based on data from the 21 meteorological stations nearby. The result shows that all the events are above the curve, TV = -0.0193RDC + 3.0018, which can be taken as the early warning threshold curve. This has been verified by the GLOF events in the Ranzeaco glacial lake on 2013-07-05.

Prediction of line failure fault based on weighted fuzzy dynamic clustering and improved relational analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Xiaocheng; Che, Renfei; Gao, Shi; He, Juntao

2018-04-01

With the advent of large data age, power system research has entered a new stage. At present, the main application of large data in the power system is the early warning analysis of the power equipment, that is, by collecting the relevant historical fault data information, the system security is improved by predicting the early warning and failure rate of different kinds of equipment under certain relational factors. In this paper, a method of line failure rate warning is proposed. Firstly, fuzzy dynamic clustering is carried out based on the collected historical information. Considering the imbalance between the attributes, the coefficient of variation is given to the corresponding weights. And then use the weighted fuzzy clustering to deal with the data more effectively. Then, by analyzing the basic idea and basic properties of the relational analysis model theory, the gray relational model is improved by combining the slope and the Deng model. And the incremental composition and composition of the two sequences are also considered to the gray relational model to obtain the gray relational degree between the various samples. The failure rate is predicted according to the principle of weighting. Finally, the concrete process is expounded by an example, and the validity and superiority of the proposed method are verified.

A Prototype Flood Early Warning SensorWeb System for Namibia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sohlberg, R. A.; Mandl, D.; Frye, S. W.; Cappelaere, P. G.; Szarzynski, J.; Policelli, F.; van Langenhove, G.

2010-12-01

During the past two years, there have been extensive floods in the country of Namibia, Africa which have affected up to a quarter of the population. Via a collaboration between a group funded by the Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) at NASA that has been performing various SensorWeb prototyping activities for disasters, the Department of Hydrology in Namibia and the United Nations Space-based Information for Disaster and Emergency Response (UN-SPIDER) , experiments were conducted on how to apply various satellite resources integrated into a SensorWeb architecture along with in-situ sensors such as river gauges and rain gauges into a flood early warning system. The SensorWeb includes a global flood model and a higher resolution basin specific flood model. Furthermore, flood extent and status is monitored by optical and radar types of satellites and integrated via some automation. We have taken a practical approach to find out how to create a working system by selectively using the components that provide good results. The vision for the future is to combine this with the country side dwelling unit data base to create risk maps that provide specific warnings to houses within high risk areas based on near term predictions. This presentation will show some of the highlights of the effort thus far plus our future plans.

Monitoring and Early Warning of the 2012 Preonzo Catastrophic Rockslope Failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loew, Simon; Gschwind, Sophie; Keller-Signer, Alexandra; Valenti, Giorgio

2015-04-01

In this contribution we describe the accelerated creep stage and early warning system of a 210'000 m3 rock slope failure that occurred in May 2012 above the village of Preonzo (Swiss Alps). The very rapid failure occurred from a larger and retrogressive instability in high-grade metamorphic ortho-gneisses and amphibolites with a total volume of about 350'000 m3 located at an alpine meadow called Alpe di Roscioro. This instability showed clearly visible signs of movements since 1989 and accelerated creep with significant hydro-mechanical forcing since about 1999. Because the instability at Preonzo threatened a large industrial facility and important transport routes a cost-effective early warning system was installed in 2010. The alarm thresholds for pre-alarm, general public alarm and evacuation were derived from 10 years of continuous displacement monitoring with crack extensometers and an automated total station. These thresholds were successfully applied to evacuate the industrial facility and close important roads a few days before the catastrophic slope failure of May 15th, 2012. The rock slope failure occurred in two events, exposing a planar rupture plane dipping 42° and generating deposits in the mid-slope portion with a travel angle of 38°. Two hours after the second rockslide, the fresh colluvial deposits became reactivated in a devastating de-bris avalanche reaching the foot of the slope.

Developing an operational rangeland water requirement satisfaction index

USGS Publications Warehouse

Senay, Gabriel B.; Verdin, James P.; Rowland, James

2011-01-01

Developing an operational water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI) for rangeland monitoring is an important goal of the famine early warning systems network. An operational WRSI has been developed for crop monitoring, but until recently a comparable WRSI for rangeland was not successful because of the extremely poor performance of the index when based on published crop coefficients (K c) for rangelands. To improve the rangeland WRSI, we developed a simple calibration technique that adjusts the K c values for rangeland monitoring using long-term rainfall distribution and reference evapotranspiration data. The premise for adjusting the K c values is based on the assumption that a viable rangeland should exhibit above-average WRSI (values >80%) during a normal year. The normal year was represented by a median dekadal rainfall distribution (satellite rainfall estimate from 1996 to 2006). Similarly, a long-term average for potential evapotranspiration was used as input to the famine early warning systems network WRSI model in combination with soil-water-holding capacity data. A dekadal rangeland WRSI has been operational for east and west Africa since 2005. User feedback has been encouraging, especially with regard to the end-of-season WRSI anomaly products that compare the index's performance to ‘normal’ years. Currently, rangeland WRSI products are generated on a dekadal basis and posted for free distribution on the US Geological Survey early warning website at http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/adds/

Highlight on Supernova Early Warning at Daya Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Hanyu

Providing an early warning of supernova burst neutrinos is of importance in studying both supernova dynamics and neutrino physics. The Daya Bay Reactor Neutrino Experiment, with a unique feature of multiple liquid scintillator detectors, is sensitive to the full energy spectrum of supernova burst electron-antineutrinos. By utilizing 8 Antineutrino Detectors (ADs) in the three different experimental halls which are about 1 km's apart from each other, we obtain a powerful and prompt rejection of muon spallation background than single-detector experiments with the same target volume. A dedicated trigger system embedded in the data acquisition system has been installed to allow the detection of a coincidence of neutrino signals of all ADs via an inverse beta-decay (IBD) within a 10-second window, thus providing a robust early warning of a supernova occurrence within the Milky Way. An 8-AD associated supernova trigger table has been established theoretically to tabulate the 8-AD event counts' coincidence vs. the trigger rate. As a result, a golden trigger threshold, i.e. with a false alarm rate < 1/3-months, can be set as low as 6 candidates among the 8 detectors, leading to a 100% detection probability for all 1987A type supernova bursts at the distance to the Milky Way center and a 96% detection probability to those at the edge of the Milky Way.

Disparities in adult awareness of heart attack warning signs and symptoms--14 states, 2005.

PubMed

2008-02-22

In 2005, approximately 920,000 persons in the United States had a myocardial infarction (i.e., heart attack); in 2004, approximately 157,000 heart attacks were fatal. One study indicated that approximately half of cardiac deaths occur within 1 hour of symptom onset, before patients reach a hospital. Timely access to emergency cardiac care, receipt of advanced treatment, and potential for surviving a heart attack all depend on 1) early recognition of warning signs and symptoms of a heart attack by persons who are having a heart attack and bystanders and 2) immediately calling 9-1-1. Healthy People 2010 includes an objective to increase from 46% to 50% the proportion of adults aged > or =20 years who are aware of the early warning signs and symptoms of a heart attack and the importance of accessing rapid emergency care by calling 9-1-1 (objective 12-2). To update estimates of public awareness of heart attack warning signs and symptoms and knowledge of the importance of calling 9-1-1, CDC analyzed 2005 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data from the 14 states that included questions on signs and symptoms of a heart attack. This report describes the results of that analysis, which indicated that although the awareness of certain individual warning signs was as high as 93% (i.e., for shortness of breath), awareness of all five warning signs was 31%, underscoring the need for public health measures to increase public awareness of heart attack warning signs and symptoms. In addition, disparities in awareness were observed by race/ethnicity, sex, and level of education, suggesting that new public health measures should target populations with the lowest levels of awareness.

26. View of second floor of transmitter building no. 102 ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

26. View of second floor of transmitter building no. 102 looking across electronic equipment cabinets in area of missile impact predictor (MIP) area. Note U.S. Air Force emblem in mid-center of photograph. This area is in front of the Missile Warning Operations Center (MWOC) office. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

Cyanobacteria Assessment Network (CyAN)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

CyAN is a multi-agency project among the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), US Geological Survey (USGS), and EPA to develop an early warning indicator system to detect algal blooms.

LDAR, A Three-Dimensional Lightning Warning System: Its Development and Use by the Government, and Transition to Public Availability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starr, Stan; Sharp, David; Merceret, Francis; Madura, John; Murphy, Martin

1998-01-01

NASA, at the John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC), developed and operates a unique high precision lightning location system to provide lightning related weather warnings. These warnings are used to stop lightning-sensitive operations such as space vehicle launches and ground operations where equipment and personnel are at risk. The data is provided to the Range Weather Operations [45th Weather Squadron, U. S. Air Force (USAF)] where it is used with other meteorological data to issue weather advisories and warnings for Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) and KSC operations. This system, called Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR), provides users with a graphical display in three dimensions of 66 MHz radio frequency events generated by lightning processes. The locations of these events provide a sound basis for the prediction of lightning hazards. NASA and Global Atmospherics, Inc. are developing a new system that will replace the unique LDAR components with commercially available and maintainable components having improved capabilities. These components will be phased in to ensure full continuity and access to this important warning technology. These LDAR systems are expected to eventually be available for installation and use by the public at specialized facilities, such as airports, and for general weather warnings via the National Weather Service (NWS) or television broadcast. The NWS in Melbourne has had access to real-time LDAR data since 1993 on an experimental basis. This use of LDAR has shown promise for the improvement of aviation forecasts and severe weather warnings. More so, it has opened the door to investigate the feasibility of issuing lightning-related public advisories. The success of its early use suggests that this technology may improve safety and potentially save lives, therefore constituting a significant benefit to the public. This paper describes the LDR system, the plans and progress of these upgrades, and the potential benefits of its use.

Development of a Global Agricultural Hotspot Detection and Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemoine, G.; Rembold, F.; Urbano, F.; Csak, G.

2015-12-01

The number of web based platforms for crop monitoring has grown rapidly over the last years and anomaly maps and time profiles of remote sensing derived indicators can be accessed online thanks to a number of web based portals. However, while these systems make available a large amount of crop monitoring data to the agriculture and food security analysts, there is no global platform which provides agricultural production hotspot warning in a highly automatic and timely manner. Therefore a web based system providing timely warning evidence as maps and short narratives is currently under development by the Joint Research Centre. The system (called "HotSpot Detection System of Agriculture Production Anomalies", HSDS) will focus on water limited agricultural systems worldwide. The automatic analysis of relevant meteorological and vegetation indicators at selected administrative units (Gaul 1 level) will trigger warning messages for the areas where anomalous conditions are observed. The level of warning (ranging from "watch" to "alert") will depend on the nature and number of indicators for which an anomaly is detected. Information regarding the extent of the agricultural areas concerned by the anomaly and the progress of the agricultural season will complement the warning label. In addition, we are testing supplementary detailed information from other sources for the areas triggering a warning. These regard the automatic web-based and food security-tailored analysis of media (using the JRC Media Monitor semantic search engine) and the automatic detection of active crop area using Sentinel 1, upcoming Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 imagery processed in Google Earth Engine. The basic processing will be fully automated and updated every 10 days exploiting low resolution rainfall estimates and satellite vegetation indices. Maps, trend graphs and statistics accompanied by short narratives edited by a team of crop monitoring experts, will be made available on the website on a monthly basis.

Autonomic nervous system activity as risk predictor in the medical emergency department: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Eick, Christian; Rizas, Konstantinos D; Meyer-Zürn, Christine S; Groga-Bada, Patrick; Hamm, Wolfgang; Kreth, Florian; Overkamp, Dietrich; Weyrich, Peter; Gawaz, Meinrad; Bauer, Axel

2015-05-01

To evaluate heart rate deceleration capacity, an electrocardiogram-based marker of autonomic nervous system activity, as risk predictor in a medical emergency department and to test its incremental predictive value to the modified early warning score. Prospective cohort study. Medical emergency department of a large university hospital. Five thousand seven hundred thirty consecutive patients of either sex in sinus rhythm, who were admitted to the medical emergency department of the University of Tübingen, Germany, between November 2010 and March 2012. None. Deceleration capacity of heart rate was calculated within the first minutes after emergency department admission. The modified early warning score was assessed from respiratory rate, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, body temperature, and level of consciousness as previously described. Primary endpoint was intrahospital mortality; secondary endpoints included transfer to the ICU as well as 30-day and 180-day mortality. One hundred forty-two patients (2.5%) reached the primary endpoint. Deceleration capacity was highly significantly lower in nonsurvivors than survivors (2.9 ± 2.1 ms vs 5.6 ± 2.9 ms; p < 0.001) and yielded an area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve of 0.780 (95% CI, 0.745-0.813). The modified early warning score model yielded an area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve of 0.706 (0.667-0.750). Implementing deceleration capacity into the modified early warning score model led to a highly significant increase of the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve to 0.804 (0.770-0.835; p < 0.001 for difference). Deceleration capacity was also a highly significant predictor of 30-day and 180-day mortality as well as transfer to the ICU. Deceleration capacity is a strong and independent predictor of short-term mortality among patients admitted to a medical emergency department.

Short National Early Warning Score - Developing a Modified Early Warning Score.

PubMed

Luís, Leandro; Nunes, Carla

2017-12-11

Early Warning Score (EWS) systems have been developed for detecting hospital patients clinical deterioration. Many studies show that a National Early Warning Score (NEWS) performs well in discriminating survival from death in acute medical and surgical hospital wards. NEWS is validated for Portugal and is available for use. A simpler EWS system may help to reduce the risk of error, as well as increase clinician compliance with the tool. The aim of the study was to evaluate whether a simplified NEWS model will improve use and data collection. We evaluated the ability of single and aggregated parameters from the NEWS model to detect patients' clinical deterioration in the 24h prior to an outcome. There were 2 possible outcomes: Survival vs Unanticipated intensive care unit admission or death. We used binary logistic regression models and Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves (ROC) to evaluate the parameters' performance in discriminating among the outcomes for a sample of patients from 6 Portuguese hospital wards. NEWS presented an excellent discriminating capability (Area under the Curve of ROC (AUCROC)=0.944). Temperature and systolic blood pressure (SBP) parameters did not contribute significantly to the model. We developed two different models, one without temperature, and the other by removing temperature and SBP (M2). Both models had an excellent discriminating capability (AUCROC: 0.965; 0.903, respectively) and a good predictive power in the optimum threshold of the ROC curve. The 3 models revealed similar discriminant capabilities. Although the use of SBP is not clearly evident in the identification of clinical deterioration, it is recognized as an important vital sign. We recommend the use of the first new model, as its simplicity may help to improve adherence and use by health care workers. Copyright © 2017 Australian College of Critical Care Nurses Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vulnerability analysis for a drought Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angeluccetti, Irene; Demarchi, Alessandro; Perez, Francesca

2014-05-01

Early Warning Systems (EWS) for drought are often based on risk models that do not, or marginally, take into account the vulnerability factor. The multifaceted nature of drought (hydrological, meteorological, and agricultural) is source of coexistence for different ways to measure this phenomenon and its effects. The latter, together with the complexity of impacts generated by this hazard, causes the current underdevelopment of drought EWS compared to other hazards. In Least Developed Countries, where drought events causes the highest numbers of affected people, the importance of correct monitoring and forecasting is considered essential. Existing early warning and monitoring systems for drought produced at different geographic levels, provide only in a few cases an actual spatial model that tries to describe the cause-effect link between where the hazard is detected and where impacts occur. Integrate vulnerability information in such systems would permit to better estimate affected zones and livelihoods, improving the effectiveness of produced hazard-related datasets and maps. In fact, the need of simplification and, in general, of a direct applicability of scientific outputs is still a matter of concern for field experts and early warning products end-users. Even if the surplus of hazard related information produced right after catastrophic events has, in some cases, led to the creation of specific data-sharing platforms, the conveyed meaning and usefulness of each product has not yet been addressed. The present work is an attempt to fill this gap which is still an open issue for the scientific community as well as for the humanitarian aid world. The study aims at conceiving a simplified vulnerability model to embed into an existing EWS for drought, which is based on the monitoring of vegetation phenological parameters and the Standardized Precipitation Index, both produced using free satellite derived datasets. The proposed vulnerability model includes (i) a pure agricultural vulnerability and (ii) a systemic vulnerability. The first considers the agricultural potential of terrains, the diversity of cultivated crops and the percentage of irrigated area as main driving factors. The second vulnerability aspect consists of geographic units in which a set of socio-economic factors are modeled geographically on the basis of the physical accessibility to market centers in one case, and according to a spatial gravity model of market areas in another case. Results of the model applied to a case study (Niger) and evaluated with food insecurity data, are presented.

A search for applications of Fiber Optics in early warning systems for natural hazards.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wenker, Koen; Bogaard, Thom

2013-04-01

In order to reduce the societal risk associated with natural hazards novel technologies could help to advance in early warning systems. In our study we evaluate the use of multi-sensor technologies as possible early-warning systems for landslides and man-made structures, and the integration of the information in a simple Decision Support System (DSS). In this project, particular attention will be paid to some new possibilities available in the field of distributed monitoring systems of relevant parameters for landslide and man-made structures monitoring (such as large dams and bridges), and among them the distributed monitoring of temperature, strain and acoustic signals by FO cables. Fiber Optic measurements are becoming more and more popular. Fiber optic cables have been developed in the telecommunication business to send large amounts of information over large distances with the speed of light. Because of the commercial application, production costs are relatively low. Using fiber optics for measurements has several advantages. This novel technology is, for instance, immune to electromagnetic interference, appears stable, very accurate, and has the potential to measure several independent physical properties in a distributed manner. The high resolution spatial and temporal distributed information on e.g. temperature or strain (or both) make fiber optics an interesting measurement technique. Several applications have been developed in both engineering as science and the possibilities seem numerous. We will present a thorough literature review that was done to assess the applicability and limitations of FO cable technology. This review was focused but not limited to application in landslide research. Several examples of current practices will be shown, also from outside the natural hazard practice and possible application will be discussed.

Global situational awareness and early warning of high-consequence climate change.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Backus, George A.; Carr, Martin J.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

2009-08-01

Global monitoring systems that have high spatial and temporal resolution, with long observational baselines, are needed to provide situational awareness of the Earth's climate system. Continuous monitoring is required for early warning of high-consequence climate change and to help anticipate and minimize the threat. Global climate has changed abruptly in the past and will almost certainly do so again, even in the absence of anthropogenic interference. It is possible that the Earth's climate could change dramatically and suddenly within a few years. An unexpected loss of climate stability would be equivalent to the failure of an engineered system on amore » grand scale, and would affect billions of people by causing agricultural, economic, and environmental collapses that would cascade throughout the world. The probability of such an abrupt change happening in the near future may be small, but it is nonzero. Because the consequences would be catastrophic, we argue that the problem should be treated with science-informed engineering conservatism, which focuses on various ways a system can fail and emphasizes inspection and early detection. Such an approach will require high-fidelity continuous global monitoring, informed by scientific modeling.« less

Prototype early warning system for heart disease detection using Android Application.

PubMed

Zennifa, Fadilla; Fitrilina; Kamil, Husnil; Iramina, Keiji

2014-01-01

Heart Disease affects approximately 70 million people worldwide where most people do not even know the symptoms. This research examines the prototype of early warning system for heart disease by android application. It aims to facilitate users to early detect heart disease which can be used independently. To build the application in android phone, variable centered intelligence rule system (VCIRS) as decision makers and pulse sensor - Arduino as heart rate detector were applied in this study. Moreover, in Arduino, the heart rate will become an input for symptoms in Android Application. The output of this system is the conclusion statement of users diagnosed with either coronary heart disease, hypertension heart disease, rheumatic heart disease or do not get any kind of heart disease. The result of diagnosis followed by analysis of the value of usage variable rate (VUR) rule usage rate (RUR) and node usage rate (NUR) that shows the value of the rule that will increase when the symptoms frequently appear. This application was compared with the medical analysis from 35 cases of heart disease and it showed concordance between diagnosis from android application and expert diagnosis of the doctors.

A Feasibility Study for Earthquake Early Warning in a School in Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emolo, A.; Martino, C.; Picozzi, M.; Zollo, A.; Elia, L.; Festa, G.; Colombelli, S.; Caruso, A.; Brondi, P.; Miranda, N.

2015-12-01

We present the results of a feasibility study on the application of earthquake early-warning procedures in the high school ITIS E. Majorana, Somma Vesuviana, Naples, located about 80 km far from the seismogenic Irpinia region. The study was performed in the framework of the European REAKT project. The school was equipped with an EEWS composed of: a small seismic network of accelerometers, the PRESToPlus software platform, and an actuator, named Sentinel. The Sentinel is made up of low-cost hardware (i.e., Arduino®) programmed to accomplish three main tasks: 1) listen and interpret messages delivered by the EEW system PRESToPlus on the ground motion severity expected at the target site; 2) provides different warnings as alert levels by the control of different hardware (i.e., alarm bells, emergency lights, and so on); 3) declare the end of the most threatening condition, which will assist the emergency coordinator starting the evacuation plan defined by the current legislation. The Sentinel was developed within REAKT in close collaboration with the students and the teachers of the school. The EEW system and the Sentinel were successfully tested during some blind drills performed during normal school activities.

Establishment and Practical Application of Flood Warning Stage in Taiwan's River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Sheng-Hsueh; Chia Yeh, Keh-

2017-04-01

In the face of extreme flood events or the possible impact of climate change, non-engineering disaster prevention and early warning work is particularly important. Taiwan is an island topography with more than 3,900 meters of high mountains. The length of the river is less than 100 kilometers. Most of the watershed catchment time is less than 24 hours, which belongs to the river with steep slope and rapid flood. Every year in summer and autumn, several typhoon events invade Taiwan. Typhoons often result in rainfall events in excess of 100 mm/hr or 250 mm/3hr. In the face of Taiwan's terrain and extreme rainfall events, flooding is difficult to avoid. Therefore, most of the river has embankment protection, so that people do not have to face every year flooding caused by economic and life and property losses. However, the river embankment protection is limited. With the increase of the hydrological data, the design criteria for the embankment protection standards in the past was 100 year of flood return period and is now gradually reduced to 25 or 50 year of flood return period. The river authorities are not easy to rise the existing embankment height. The safety of the river embankment in Taiwan is determined by the establishment of the flood warning stage to cope with the possible increase in annual floods and the impact of extreme hydrological events. The flood warning stage is equal to the flood control elevation minus the flood rise rate multiply by the flood early warning time. The control elevation can be the top of the embankment, the design flood level of the river, the embankment gap of the river section, the height of the bridge beam bottom, etc. The flood rise rate is consider the factors such as hydrological stochastic and uncertain rainfall and the effect of flood discharge operation on the flood in the watershed catchment area. The maximum value of the water level difference between the two hours or five hours before the peak value of the analysis result is decided by this rate. The flood early warning time is divided into two levels, the first level is 2 hours, evacuation time for the public, the second level is 5 hours for the implementation of unit preparation time. Finally, The flood warning stages are practical application in 20 water level stations have been incorporated into the flood early warning system of the Danshuei river basin in Taiwan.

InteractInteraction mechanism of emergency response in geological hazard perception and risk management: a case study in Zhouqu county

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Yuan; Zhao, Hongtao

2017-04-01

China is one of few several natural disaster prone countries, which has complex geological and geographical environment and abnormal climate. On August 8, 2010, a large debris flow disaster happened in Zhouqu Country, Gansu province, resulting in more than 1700 casualties and more than 200 buildings damaged. In order to percept landslide and debris flow, an early warning system was established in the county. Spatial information technologies, such as remote sensing, GIS, and GPS, play core role in the early warning system, due to their functions in observing, analyzing, and locating geological disasters. However, all of these spatial information technologies could play an important role only guided by the emergency response mechanism. This article takes the establishment of Zhouqu Country's Disaster Emergency Response Interaction Mechanism (DERIM) as an example to discuss the risk management of country-level administrative units. The country-level risk management aims to information sharing, resources integration, integrated prevention and unified command. Then, nine subsystems support DERIM, which included disaster prevention and emergency data collection and sharing system, joint duty system, disaster verification and evaluation system, disaster consultation system, emergency warning and information release system, emergency response system, disaster reporting system, plan management system, mass prediction and prevention management system. At last, an emergency command platform in Zhouqu Country built up to realize DERIM. The core mission of the platform consists of daily management of disaster, monitoring and warning, comprehensive analysis, information release, consultation and decision-making, emergency response, etc. Five functional modules, including module of disaster information management, comprehensive monitoring module (geological monitoring, meteorological monitoring, water conservancy and hydrological monitoring), alarm management module, emergency command and disaster dispatching management module are developed on the basis of this platform. Based on the internet technology, an web-based office platform is exploited for the nodes scattered in departments and towns, which includes daily business, monitoring and warning, alarm notification, alarm recording, personnel management and update in disaster region, query and analysis of real-time observation data, etc. The platform experienced 3 years' test of the duty in flood period since 2013, and two typical disaster cases during this period fully illustrates the effectiveness of the DERIM and the emergency command platform.

Accuracy of a Rationally Derived Method for Identifying Treatment Failure in Children and Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bishop, Matthew J.; Bybee, Taige S.; Lambert, Michael J.; Burlingame, Gary M.; Wells, M. Gawain; Poppleton, Landon E.

2005-01-01

Psychotherapy outcome can be enhanced by early identification of potential treatment failures before they leave treatment. In adults, compelling data are emerging that provide evidence that an early warning system that identifies potential treatment failures can be developed and applied to enhance outcome. The present study reports an analysis of…

Benchmarking a soil moisture data assimilation system for agricultural drought monitoring

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Agricultural drought is defined as a shortage of moisture in the root zone of plants. Recently available satellite-based remote sensing data have accelerated development of drought early warning system by providing spatially continuous soil moisture information repeatedly at short-term interval. Non...

Historical telecommunication in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas: An ancient early warning system for glacier lake outbursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iturrizaga, Lasafam

2016-04-01

Mountain societies are in a crucial transition phase in terms of the management of natural hazards. Advances in geographic technologies, such as a variety of remote-sensing tools and mobile communication systems, have drastically changed the way of early warning methods in difficult accessible high mountain environments compared to those of ancient times. In order to implement new natural hazard policies, it is essential to unravel the traditional ways of disaster management which is presented here by a case study from the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas. In the rugged relief of the Himalaya Region, the exchange of information was a labor-intensive and time-consuming task for remote high mountain villages before the infrastructural development and the introduction of modern communication systems. Therefore, early warning of natural hazards with long run-out distances seems to have been rather impossible. However, in the present study a historical optical long-distance and fast operating communication system over horizontal distances of several hundred kilometers was discovered during field investigations in the Hindukush-Karakoram and the transmission paths reconstructed in the following years. The so called Puberanch-system relied on a chain of fire signals as used by ancient societies in other mountain and coastal environments in the world. It was originally in use for the alert against war attacks from hostile neighboring communities. Later on, it served as an early warning system for glacier lake outbursts, which have been in the end of the 19th century and beginning of the 20th century one of the most devastating natural hazards in the region. Remarkable is the fact that fire posts were located in extremely harsh environments at altitudes above 4000 m requiring a highly sophisticated supply system of fire wood and food. Interviews with local inhabitants, the evaluation of historical travel records and international newspapers proved, that the system has been operated in the entire Hindukush-Karakoram Region including Ladakh. The locations of selected signal fire signal chains have been reconstructed for the Valleys of Shimshal, Karambar and Rupal. Natural hazard management is increasingly dominated by external technological and cost-intensive approaches in the Himalayas. Local traditional knowledge and practical expertise may be given up without an alternative plan for hazard management. Thus, the intervention from external side in traditional mountain societies and the implementation of distinct security expectations has to be well considered at the long-term.

Performance of Earthquake Early Warning Systems during the Major Events of the 2016-2017 Central Italy Seismic Sequence.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Festa, G.; Picozzi, M.; Alessandro, C.; Colombelli, S.; Cattaneo, M.; Chiaraluce, L.; Elia, L.; Martino, C.; Marzorati, S.; Supino, M.; Zollo, A.

2017-12-01

Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) are systems nowadays contributing to the seismic risk mitigation actions, both in terms of losses and societal resilience, by issuing an alert promptly after the earthquake origin and before the ground shaking impacts the targets to be protected. EEWS systems can be grouped in two main classes: network based and stand-alone systems. Network based EEWS make use of dense seismic networks surrounding the fault (e.g. Near Fault Observatory; NFO) generating the event. The rapid processing of the P-wave early portion allows for the location and magnitude estimation of the event then used to predict the shaking through ground motion prediction equations. Stand-alone systems instead analyze the early P-wave signal to predict the ground shaking carried by the late S or surface waves, through empirically calibrated scaling relationships, at the recording site itself. We compared the network-based (PRESTo, PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem, www.prestoews.org, Satriano et al., 2011) and the stand-alone (SAVE, on-Site-Alert-leVEl, Caruso et al., 2017) systems, by analyzing their performance during the 2016-2017 Central Italy sequence. We analyzed 9 earthquakes having magnitude 5.0 < M < 6.5 at about 200 stations located within 200 km from the epicentral area, including stations of The Altotiberina NFO (TABOO). Performances are evaluated in terms of rate of success of ground shaking intensity prediction and available lead-time, i.e. the time available for security actions. PRESTo also evaluated the accuracy of location and magnitude. Both systems well predict the ground shaking nearby the event source, with a success rate around 90% within the potential damage zone. The lead-time is significantly larger for the network based system, increasing to more than 10s at 40 km from the event epicentre. The stand-alone system better performs in the near-source region showing a positive albeit small lead-time (<3s). Far away from the source, the performances slightly degrade, mostly owing to uncertain calibration of attenuation relationships. This study opens to the possibility of making EEWS operational in Italy, based on the available acceleration networks, by improving the capability of reducing the lead-time related to data telemetry.