Development of the Transportation Revenue Estimator and Needs Determination System (TRENDS) forecasting model : MPO sub-models and maintenance.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-11-01

This report summarizes the technical work performed developing and incorporating Metropolitan Planning : Organization sub-models into the existing Texas Revenue Estimator and Needs Determination System : (TRENDS) model. Additionally, this report expl...

The management submodel of the Wind Erosion Prediction System

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) is a process-based, daily time-step, computer model that predicts soil erosion via simulation of the physical processes controlling wind erosion. WEPS is comprised of several individual modules (submodels) that reflect different sets of physical processes, ...

Improved accuracy in quantitative laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy using sub-models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, Ryan; Clegg, Samuel M.; Frydenvang, Jens; Wiens, Roger C.; McLennan, Scott M.; Morris, Richard V.; Ehlmann, Bethany L.; Dyar, M. Darby

2017-01-01

Accurate quantitative analysis of diverse geologic materials is one of the primary challenges faced by the Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS)-based ChemCam instrument on the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) rover. The SuperCam instrument on the Mars 2020 rover, as well as other LIBS instruments developed for geochemical analysis on Earth or other planets, will face the same challenge. Consequently, part of the ChemCam science team has focused on the development of improved multivariate analysis calibrations methods. Developing a single regression model capable of accurately determining the composition of very different target materials is difficult because the response of an element’s emission lines in LIBS spectra can vary with the concentration of other elements. We demonstrate a conceptually simple “sub-model” method for improving the accuracy of quantitative LIBS analysis of diverse target materials. The method is based on training several regression models on sets of targets with limited composition ranges and then “blending” these “sub-models” into a single final result. Tests of the sub-model method show improvement in test set root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) for almost all cases. The sub-model method, using partial least squares regression (PLS), is being used as part of the current ChemCam quantitative calibration, but the sub-model method is applicable to any multivariate regression method and may yield similar improvements.

Evaluation of a Mineral Dust Simulation in the Atmospheric-Chemistry General Circulation Model-EMAC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdel Kader, M.; Astitha, M.; Lelieveld, J.

2012-04-01

This study presents an evaluation of the atmospheric mineral dust cycle in the Atmospheric Chemistry General Circulation Model (AC-GCM) using new developed dust emissions scheme. The dust cycle, as an integral part of the Earth System, plays an important role in the Earth's energy balance by both direct and indirect ways. As an aerosol, it significantly impacts the absorption and scattering of radiation in the atmosphere and can modify the optical properties of clouds and snow/ice surfaces. In addition, dust contributes to a range of physical, chemical and bio-geological processes that interact with the cycles of carbon and water. While our knowledge of the dust cycle, its impacts and interactions with the other global-scale bio-geochemical cycles has greatly advanced in the last decades, large uncertainties and knowledge gaps still exist. Improving the dust simulation in global models is essential to minimize the uncertainties in the model results related to dust. In this study, the results are based on the ECHAM5 Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) AC-GCM simulations using T106L31 spectral resolution (about 120km ) with 31 vertical levels. The GMXe aerosol submodel is used to simulate the phase changes of the dust particles between soluble and insoluble modes. Dust emission, transport and deposition (wet and dry) are calculated on-line along with the meteorological parameters in every model time step. The preliminary evaluation of the dust concentration and deposition are presented based on ground observations from various campaigns as well as the evaluation of the optical properties of dust using AERONET and satellite (MODIS and MISR) observations. Preliminarily results show good agreement with observations for dust deposition and optical properties. In addition, the global dust emissions, load, deposition and lifetime is in good agreement with the published results. Also, the uncertainties in the dust cycle that contribute to the overall model performance will be briefly discussed as it is a subject of future work.

Transportation Planning with Immune System Derived Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiyama, Kenji; Yaji, Yasuhito; Ootsuki, John Takuya; Fujimoto, Yasutaka; Sekiguchi, Takashi

This paper presents an immune system derived approach for planning transportation of materials between manufacturing processes in the factory. Transportation operations are modeled by Petri Net, and divided into submodels. Transportation orders are derived from the firing sequences of those submodels through convergence calculation by the immune system derived excitation and suppression operations. Basic evaluation of this approach is conducted by simulation-based investigation.

The 1-way on-line coupled model system MECO(n) - Part 4: Chemical evaluation (based on MESSy v2.52)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mertens, Mariano; Kerkweg, Astrid; Jöckel, Patrick; Tost, Holger; Hofmann, Christiane

2016-10-01

For the first time, a simulation incorporating tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry using the newly developed MECO(n) model system is performed. MECO(n) is short for MESSy-fied ECHAM and COSMO models nested n times. It features an online coupling of the COSMO-CLM model, equipped with the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) interface (called COSMO/MESSy), with the global atmospheric chemistry model ECHAM5/MESSy for Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC). This online coupling allows a consistent model chain with respect to chemical and meteorological boundary conditions from the global scale down to the regional kilometre scale. A MECO(2) simulation incorporating one regional instance over Europe with 50 km resolution and one instance over Germany with 12 km resolution is conducted for the evaluation of MECO(n) with respect to tropospheric gas-phase chemistry. The main goal of this evaluation is to ensure that the chemistry-related MESSy submodels and the online coupling with respect to the chemistry are correctly implemented. This evaluation is a prerequisite for the further usage of MECO(n) in atmospheric chemistry-related studies. Results of EMAC and the two COSMO/MESSy instances are compared with satellite, ground-based and aircraft in situ observations, focusing on ozone, carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide. Further, the methane lifetimes in EMAC and the two COSMO/MESSy instances are analysed in view of the tropospheric oxidation capacity. From this evaluation, we conclude that the chemistry-related submodels and the online coupling with respect to the chemistry are correctly implemented. In comparison with observations, both EMAC and COSMO/MESSy show strengths and weaknesses. Especially in comparison to aircraft in situ observations, COSMO/MESSy shows very promising results. However, the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of ground-level ozone measurements is underestimated. Most of the differences between COSMO/MESSy and EMAC can be attributed to differences in the dynamics of both models, which are subject to further model developments.

A Structural Model Decomposition Framework for Hybrid Systems Diagnosis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew; Bregon, Anibal; Roychoudhury, Indranil

2015-01-01

Nowadays, a large number of practical systems in aerospace and industrial environments are best represented as hybrid systems that consist of discrete modes of behavior, each defined by a set of continuous dynamics. These hybrid dynamics make the on-line fault diagnosis task very challenging. In this work, we present a new modeling and diagnosis framework for hybrid systems. Models are composed from sets of user-defined components using a compositional modeling approach. Submodels for residual generation are then generated for a given mode, and reconfigured efficiently when the mode changes. Efficient reconfiguration is established by exploiting causality information within the hybrid system models. The submodels can then be used for fault diagnosis based on residual generation and analysis. We demonstrate the efficient causality reassignment, submodel reconfiguration, and residual generation for fault diagnosis using an electrical circuit case study.

Modeling snail breeding in a bioregenerative life support system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovalev, V. S.; Manukovsky, N. S.; Tikhomirov, A. A.; Kolmakova, A. A.

2015-07-01

The discrete-time model of snail breeding consists of two sequentially linked submodels: "Stoichiometry" and "Population". In both submodels, a snail population is split up into twelve age groups within one year of age. The first submodel is used to simulate the metabolism of a single snail in each age group via the stoichiometric equation; the second submodel is used to optimize the age structure and the size of the snail population. Daily intake of snail meat by crewmen is a guideline which specifies the population productivity. The mass exchange of the snail unit inhabited by land snails of Achatina fulica is given as an outcome of step-by-step modeling. All simulations are performed using Solver Add-In of Excel 2007.

Improved accuracy in quantitative laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy using sub-models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, Ryan B.; Clegg, Samuel M.; Frydenvang, Jens

We report that accurate quantitative analysis of diverse geologic materials is one of the primary challenges faced by the Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS)-based ChemCam instrument on the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) rover. The SuperCam instrument on the Mars 2020 rover, as well as other LIBS instruments developed for geochemical analysis on Earth or other planets, will face the same challenge. Consequently, part of the ChemCam science team has focused on the development of improved multivariate analysis calibrations methods. Developing a single regression model capable of accurately determining the composition of very different target materials is difficult because the response ofmore » an element’s emission lines in LIBS spectra can vary with the concentration of other elements. We demonstrate a conceptually simple “submodel” method for improving the accuracy of quantitative LIBS analysis of diverse target materials. The method is based on training several regression models on sets of targets with limited composition ranges and then “blending” these “sub-models” into a single final result. Tests of the sub-model method show improvement in test set root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) for almost all cases. Lastly, the sub-model method, using partial least squares regression (PLS), is being used as part of the current ChemCam quantitative calibration, but the sub-model method is applicable to any multivariate regression method and may yield similar improvements.« less

Improved accuracy in quantitative laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy using sub-models

DOE PAGES

Anderson, Ryan B.; Clegg, Samuel M.; Frydenvang, Jens; ...

2016-12-15

We report that accurate quantitative analysis of diverse geologic materials is one of the primary challenges faced by the Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS)-based ChemCam instrument on the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) rover. The SuperCam instrument on the Mars 2020 rover, as well as other LIBS instruments developed for geochemical analysis on Earth or other planets, will face the same challenge. Consequently, part of the ChemCam science team has focused on the development of improved multivariate analysis calibrations methods. Developing a single regression model capable of accurately determining the composition of very different target materials is difficult because the response ofmore » an element’s emission lines in LIBS spectra can vary with the concentration of other elements. We demonstrate a conceptually simple “submodel” method for improving the accuracy of quantitative LIBS analysis of diverse target materials. The method is based on training several regression models on sets of targets with limited composition ranges and then “blending” these “sub-models” into a single final result. Tests of the sub-model method show improvement in test set root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) for almost all cases. Lastly, the sub-model method, using partial least squares regression (PLS), is being used as part of the current ChemCam quantitative calibration, but the sub-model method is applicable to any multivariate regression method and may yield similar improvements.« less

Residue decomposition of submodel of WEPS

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Residue Decomposition submodel of the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) simulates the decrease in crop residue biomass due to microbial activity. The decomposition process is modeled as a first-order reaction with temperature and moisture as driving variables. Decomposition is a function of ...

High pressure common rail injection system modeling and control.

PubMed

Wang, H P; Zheng, D; Tian, Y

2016-07-01

In this paper modeling and common-rail pressure control of high pressure common rail injection system (HPCRIS) is presented. The proposed mathematical model of high pressure common rail injection system which contains three sub-systems: high pressure pump sub-model, common rail sub-model and injector sub-model is a relative complicated nonlinear system. The mathematical model is validated by the software Matlab and a virtual detailed simulation environment. For the considered HPCRIS, an effective model free controller which is called Extended State Observer - based intelligent Proportional Integral (ESO-based iPI) controller is designed. And this proposed method is composed mainly of the referred ESO observer, and a time delay estimation based iPI controller. Finally, to demonstrate the performances of the proposed controller, the proposed ESO-based iPI controller is compared with a conventional PID controller and ADRC. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comprehensive silicon solar cell computer modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lamorte, M. F.

1984-01-01

The development of an efficient, comprehensive Si solar cell modeling program that has the capability of simulation accuracy of 5 percent or less is examined. A general investigation of computerized simulation is provided. Computer simulation programs are subdivided into a number of major tasks: (1) analytical method used to represent the physical system; (2) phenomena submodels that comprise the simulation of the system; (3) coding of the analysis and the phenomena submodels; (4) coding scheme that results in efficient use of the CPU so that CPU costs are low; and (5) modularized simulation program with respect to structures that may be analyzed, addition and/or modification of phenomena submodels as new experimental data become available, and the addition of other photovoltaic materials.

Comparison Between Numerically Simulated and Experimentally Measured Flowfield Quantities Behind a Pulsejet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geng, Tao; Paxson, Daniel E.; Zheng, Fei; Kuznetsov, Andrey V.; Roberts, William L.

2008-01-01

Pulsed combustion is receiving renewed interest as a potential route to higher performance in air breathing propulsion systems. Pulsejets offer a simple experimental device with which to study unsteady combustion phenomena and validate simulations. Previous computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulation work focused primarily on the pulsejet combustion and exhaust processes. This paper describes a new inlet sub-model which simulates the fluidic and mechanical operation of a valved pulsejet head. The governing equations for this sub-model are described. Sub-model validation is provided through comparisons of simulated and experimentally measured reed valve motion, and time averaged inlet mass flow rate. The updated pulsejet simulation, with the inlet sub-model implemented, is validated through comparison with experimentally measured combustion chamber pressure, inlet mass flow rate, operational frequency, and thrust. Additionally, the simulated pulsejet exhaust flowfield, which is dominated by a starting vortex ring, is compared with particle imaging velocimetry (PIV) measurements on the bases of velocity, vorticity, and vortex location. The results show good agreement between simulated and experimental data. The inlet sub-model is shown to be critical for the successful modeling of pulsejet operation. This sub-model correctly predicts both the inlet mass flow rate and its phase relationship with the combustion chamber pressure. As a result, the predicted pulsejet thrust agrees very well with experimental data.

PVWatts Version 1 Technical Reference

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dobos, A. P.

2013-10-01

The NREL PVWatts(TM) calculator is a web application developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) that estimates the electricity production of a grid-connected photovoltaic system based on a few simple inputs. PVWatts combines a number of sub-models to predict overall system performance, and makes several hidden assumptions about performance parameters. This technical reference details the individual sub-models, documents assumptions and hidden parameters, and explains the sequence of calculations that yield the final system performance estimation.

Laser Induced Aluminum Surface Breakdown Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Yen-Sen; Liu, Jiwen; Zhang, Sijun; Wang, Ten-See (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Laser powered propulsion systems involve complex fluid dynamics, thermodynamics and radiative transfer processes. Based on an unstructured grid, pressure-based computational aerothermodynamics; platform, several sub-models describing such underlying physics as laser ray tracing and focusing, thermal non-equilibrium, plasma radiation and air spark ignition have been developed. This proposed work shall extend the numerical platform and existing sub-models to include the aluminum wall surface Inverse Bremsstrahlung (IB) effect from which surface ablation and free-electron generation can be initiated without relying on the air spark ignition sub-model. The following tasks will be performed to accomplish the research objectives.

Understanding the Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use Dynamics Using a Fully Coupled Hydrologic Feedback Model between Surface and Subsurface Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, C.; Lee, J.; Koo, M.

2011-12-01

Climate is the most critical driving force of the hydrologic system of the Earth. Since the industrial revolution, the impacts of anthropogenic activities to the Earth environment have been expanded and accelerated. Especially, the global emission of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere is known to have significantly increased temperature and affected the hydrologic system. Many hydrologists have contributed to the studies regarding the climate change on the hydrologic system since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was created in 1988. Among many components in the hydrologic system groundwater and its response to the climate change and anthropogenic activities are not fully understood due to the complexity of subsurface conditions between the surface and the groundwater table. A new spatio-temporal hydrologic model has been developed to estimate the impacts of climate change and land use dynamics on the groundwater. The model consists of two sub-models: a surface model and a subsurface model. The surface model involves three surface processes: interception, runoff, and evapotranspiration, and the subsurface model does also three subsurface processes: soil moisture balance, recharge, and groundwater flow. The surface model requires various input data including land use, soil types, vegetation types, topographical elevations, and meteorological data. The surface model simulates daily hydrological processes for rainfall interception, surface runoff varied by land use change and crop growth, and evapotranspiration controlled by soil moisture balance. The daily soil moisture balance is a key element to link two sub-models as it calculates infiltration and groundwater recharge by considering a time delay routing through a vadose zone down to the groundwater table. MODFLOW is adopted to simulate groundwater flow and interaction with surface water components as well. The model is technically flexible to add new model or modify existing model as it is developed with an object-oriented language - Python. The model also can easily be localized by simple modification of soil and crop properties. The actual application of the model after calibration was successful and results showed reliable water balance and interaction between the surface and subsurface hydrologic systems.

Impact of major volcanic eruptions on stratospheric water vapour

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löffler, Michael; Brinkop, Sabine; Jöckel, Patrick

2016-05-01

Volcanic eruptions can have a significant impact on the Earth's weather and climate system. Besides the subsequent tropospheric changes, the stratosphere is also influenced by large eruptions. Here changes in stratospheric water vapour after the two major volcanic eruptions of El Chichón in Mexico in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo on the Philippines in 1991 are investigated with chemistry-climate model simulations. This study is based on two simulations with specified dynamics of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Hamburg - Modular Earth Submodel System (ECHAM/MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, performed within the Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) project, of which only one includes the long-wave volcanic forcing through prescribed aerosol optical properties. The results show a significant increase in stratospheric water vapour induced by the eruptions, resulting from increased heating rates and the subsequent changes in stratospheric and tropopause temperatures in the tropics. The tropical vertical advection and the South Asian summer monsoon are identified as sources for the additional water vapour in the stratosphere. Additionally, volcanic influences on tropospheric water vapour and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are evident, if the long-wave forcing is strong enough. Our results are corroborated by additional sensitivity simulations of the Mount Pinatubo period with reduced nudging and reduced volcanic aerosol extinction.

How much detail and accuracy is required in plant growth sub-models to address questions about optimal management strategies in agricultural systems?

PubMed Central

Renton, Michael

2011-01-01

Background and aims Simulations that integrate sub-models of important biological processes can be used to ask questions about optimal management strategies in agricultural and ecological systems. Building sub-models with more detail and aiming for greater accuracy and realism may seem attractive, but is likely to be more expensive and time-consuming and result in more complicated models that lack transparency. This paper illustrates a general integrated approach for constructing models of agricultural and ecological systems that is based on the principle of starting simple and then directly testing for the need to add additional detail and complexity. Methodology The approach is demonstrated using LUSO (Land Use Sequence Optimizer), an agricultural system analysis framework based on simulation and optimization. A simple sensitivity analysis and functional perturbation analysis is used to test to what extent LUSO's crop–weed competition sub-model affects the answers to a number of questions at the scale of the whole farming system regarding optimal land-use sequencing strategies and resulting profitability. Principal results The need for accuracy in the crop–weed competition sub-model within LUSO depended to a small extent on the parameter being varied, but more importantly and interestingly on the type of question being addressed with the model. Only a small part of the crop–weed competition model actually affects the answers to these questions. Conclusions This study illustrates an example application of the proposed integrated approach for constructing models of agricultural and ecological systems based on testing whether complexity needs to be added to address particular questions of interest. We conclude that this example clearly demonstrates the potential value of the general approach. Advantages of this approach include minimizing costs and resources required for model construction, keeping models transparent and easy to analyse, and ensuring the model is well suited to address the question of interest. PMID:22476477

The on-line coupled atmospheric chemistry model system MECO(n) - Part 5: Expanding the Multi-Model-Driver (MMD v2.0) for 2-way data exchange including data interpolation via GRID (v1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerkweg, Astrid; Hofmann, Christiane; Jöckel, Patrick; Mertens, Mariano; Pante, Gregor

2018-03-01

As part of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy), the Multi-Model-Driver (MMD v1.0) was developed to couple online the regional Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) model into a driving model, which can be either the regional COSMO model or the global European Centre Hamburg general circulation model (ECHAM) (see Part 2 of the model documentation). The coupled system is called MECO(n), i.e., MESSy-fied ECHAM and COSMO models nested n times. In this article, which is part of the model documentation of the MECO(n) system, the second generation of MMD is introduced. MMD comprises the message-passing infrastructure required for the parallel execution (multiple programme multiple data, MPMD) of different models and the communication of the individual model instances, i.e. between the driving and the driven models. Initially, the MMD library was developed for a one-way coupling between the global chemistry-climate ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry (EMAC) model and an arbitrary number of (optionally cascaded) instances of the regional chemistry-climate model COSMO/MESSy. Thus, MMD (v1.0) provided only functions for unidirectional data transfer, i.e. from the larger-scale to the smaller-scale models.Soon, extended applications requiring data transfer from the small-scale model back to the larger-scale model became of interest. For instance, the original fields of the larger-scale model can directly be compared to the upscaled small-scale fields to analyse the improvements gained through the small-scale calculations, after the results are upscaled. Moreover, the fields originating from the two different models might be fed into the same diagnostic tool, e.g. the online calculation of the radiative forcing calculated consistently with the same radiation scheme. Last but not least, enabling the two-way data transfer between two models is the first important step on the way to a fully dynamical and chemical two-way coupling of the various model instances.In MMD (v1.0), interpolation between the base model grids is performed via the COSMO preprocessing tool INT2LM, which was implemented into the MMD submodel for online interpolation, specifically for mapping onto the rotated COSMO grid. A more flexible algorithm is required for the backward mapping. Thus, MMD (v2.0) uses the new MESSy submodel GRID for the generalised definition of arbitrary grids and for the transformation of data between them.In this article, we explain the basics of the MMD expansion and the newly developed generic MESSy submodel GRID (v1.0) and show some examples of the abovementioned applications.

Surveillance system and method having parameter estimation and operating mode partitioning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bickford, Randall L. (Inventor)

2005-01-01

A system and method for monitoring an apparatus or process asset including creating a process model comprised of a plurality of process submodels each correlative to at least one training data subset partitioned from an unpartitioned training data set and each having an operating mode associated thereto; acquiring a set of observed signal data values from the asset; determining an operating mode of the asset for the set of observed signal data values; selecting a process submodel from the process model as a function of the determined operating mode of the asset; calculating a set of estimated signal data values from the selected process submodel for the determined operating mode; and determining asset status as a function of the calculated set of estimated signal data values for providing asset surveillance and/or control.

PVWatts Version 5 Manual

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dobos, A. P.

2014-09-01

The NREL PVWatts calculator is a web application developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) that estimates the electricity production of a grid-connected photovoltaic system based on a few simple inputs. PVWatts combines a number of sub-models to predict overall system performance, and makes includes several built-in parameters that are hidden from the user. This technical reference describes the sub-models, documents assumptions and hidden parameters, and explains the sequence of calculations that yield the final system performance estimate. This reference is applicable to the significantly revised version of PVWatts released by NREL in 2014.

Oxidation Mechanisms of Toluene and Benzene

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bittker, David A.

1995-01-01

An expanded and improved version of a previously published benzene oxidation mechanism is presented and shown to model published experimental data fairly successfully. This benzene submodel is coupled to a modified version of a toluene oxidation submodel from the recent literature. This complete mechanism is shown to successfully model published experimental toluene oxidation data for a highly mixed flow reactor and for higher temperature ignition delay times in a shock tube. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis showing the most important reactions is presented for both the benzene and toluene reacting systems. The NASA Lewis toluene mechanism's modeling capability is found to be equivalent to that of the previously published mechanism which contains a somewhat different benzene submodel.

Modelling Nitrogen Cycling in a Mariculture Ecosystem as a Tool to Evaluate its Outflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lefebvre, S.; Bacher, C.; Meuret, A.; Hussenot, J.

2001-03-01

A model was constructed to describe an intensive mariculture ecosystem growing sea bass ( Dicentrarchus labrax), located in the salt marshes of the Fiers d'Ars Bay on the French Atlantic coast, in order to assess nitrogen cycling within the system and nitrogen outflow from the system. The land-based system was separated into three main compartments: a seawater reservoir, fish ponds and a lagoon (sedimentation pond). Three submodels were built for simulation purposes: (1) a hydrological submodel which simulated water exchange; (2) a fish growth and excretion bioenergetic submodel; and (3) a nitrogen compound transformation and loss submodel (i.e. ammonification, nitrification and assimilation processes). A two-year sampling period of nitrogen water quality concentrations and fish growth was used to validate the model. The model fitted the observations of dissolved nitrogen components, fish growth and water fluxes on a daily basis in all the compartments. The dissolved inorganic nitrogen ranged widely and over time from 0·5 to 9 g N m -3within the system, depending on seawater supply and water temperature, without affecting fish growth. Fish feed was the most important input of nitrogen into the system. The mean average input of nitrogen in the feed was 205 kg N day -1, of which 19% was retained by fish, 4% accumulated in the sediment and 61% flowed from the system as dissolved components. The farm represented about 25% of the total dissolved nitrogen export from the bay, although the farm surface area was 100 times smaller than that of the bay.

Group analysis of dynamics equations of self-gravitating polytropic gas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klebanov, I.; Panov, A.; Ivanov, S.; Maslova, O.

2018-06-01

The Lie algebras admitted by the dynamics equations of self-gravitating gas for an arbitrary equation of state and a polytropic gas are calculated. A spherically symmetric submodel is constructed for the case of a polytropic gas. The Lie algebras and the optimal system of subalgebras for a spherically symmetric submodel are computed. An invariant solution describing the steady motion is obtained.

Surveillance system and method having parameter estimation and operating mode partitioning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bickford, Randall L. (Inventor)

2003-01-01

A system and method for monitoring an apparatus or process asset including partitioning an unpartitioned training data set into a plurality of training data subsets each having an operating mode associated thereto; creating a process model comprised of a plurality of process submodels each trained as a function of at least one of the training data subsets; acquiring a current set of observed signal data values from the asset; determining an operating mode of the asset for the current set of observed signal data values; selecting a process submodel from the process model as a function of the determined operating mode of the asset; calculating a current set of estimated signal data values from the selected process submodel for the determined operating mode; and outputting the calculated current set of estimated signal data values for providing asset surveillance and/or control.

Design of disturbances control model at automotive company

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marie, I. A.; Sari, D. K.; Astuti, P.; Teorema, M.

2017-12-01

The discussion was conducted at PT. XYZ which produces automotive components and motorcycle products. The company produced X123 type cylinder head which is a motor vehicle forming component. The disturbances in the production system has affected the company performance in achieving the target of Key Performance Indicator (KPI). Currently, the determination of the percentage of safety stock of cylinder head products is not in accordance to the control limits set by the company (60% - 80%), and tends to exceed the control limits that cause increasing the inventory wastage in the company. This study aims to identify the production system disturbances that occurs in the production process of manufacturing components of X123 type cylinder head products and design the control model of disturbance to obtain control action and determine the safety stock policy in accordance with the needs of the company. The design stage has been done based on the Disturbance Control Model which already existing and customized with the company need in controlling the production system disturbances at the company. The design of the disturbances control model consists of sub-model of the risk level of the disturbance, sub-model of action status, sub-model action control of the disturbance, and sub-model of determining the safety stock. The model can assist the automotive company in taking the decision to perform the disturbances control action in production system cylinder head while controlling the percentage of the safety stock.

Hierarchical algorithms for modeling the ocean on hierarchical architectures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hill, C. N.

2012-12-01

This presentation will describe an approach to using accelerator/co-processor technology that maps hierarchical, multi-scale modeling techniques to an underlying hierarchical hardware architecture. The focus of this work is on making effective use of both CPU and accelerator/co-processor parts of a system, for large scale ocean modeling. In the work, a lower resolution basin scale ocean model is locally coupled to multiple, "embedded", limited area higher resolution sub-models. The higher resolution models execute on co-processor/accelerator hardware and do not interact directly with other sub-models. The lower resolution basin scale model executes on the system CPU(s). The result is a multi-scale algorithm that aligns with hardware designs in the co-processor/accelerator space. We demonstrate this approach being used to substitute explicit process models for standard parameterizations. Code for our sub-models is implemented through a generic abstraction layer, so that we can target multiple accelerator architectures with different programming environments. We will present two application and implementation examples. One uses the CUDA programming environment and targets GPU hardware. This example employs a simple non-hydrostatic two dimensional sub-model to represent vertical motion more accurately. The second example uses a highly threaded three-dimensional model at high resolution. This targets a MIC/Xeon Phi like environment and uses sub-models as a way to explicitly compute sub-mesoscale terms. In both cases the accelerator/co-processor capability provides extra compute cycles that allow improved model fidelity for little or no extra wall-clock time cost.

An improved Rosetta pedotransfer function and evaluation in earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Schaap, M. G.

2017-12-01

Soil hydraulic parameters are often difficult and expensive to measure, leading to the pedotransfer functions (PTFs) an alternative to predict those parameters. Rosetta (Schaap et al., 2001, denoted as Rosetta1) are widely used PTFs, which is based on artificial neural network (ANN) analysis coupled with the bootstrap re-sampling method, allowing the estimation of van Genuchten water retention parameters (van Genuchten, 1980, abbreviated here as VG), saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks), as well as their uncertainties. We present an improved hierarchical pedotransfer functions (Rosetta3) that unify the VG water retention and Ks submodels into one, thus allowing the estimation of uni-variate and bi-variate probability distributions of estimated parameters. Results show that the estimation bias of moisture content was reduced significantly. Rosetta1 and Posetta3 were implemented in the python programming language, and the source code are available online. Based on different soil water retention equations, there are diverse PTFs used in different disciplines of earth system modelings. PTFs based on Campbell [1974] or Clapp and Hornberger [1978] are frequently used in land surface models and general circulation models, while van Genuchten [1980] based PTFs are more widely used in hydrology and soil sciences. We use an independent global scale soil database to evaluate the performance of diverse PTFs used in different disciplines of earth system modelings. PTFs are evaluated based on different soil characteristics and environmental characteristics, such as soil textural data, soil organic carbon, soil pH, as well as precipitation and soil temperature. This analysis provides more quantitative estimation error information for PTF predictions in different disciplines of earth system modelings.

On extending parallelism to serial simulators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicol, David; Heidelberger, Philip

1994-01-01

This paper describes an approach to discrete event simulation modeling that appears to be effective for developing portable and efficient parallel execution of models of large distributed systems and communication networks. In this approach, the modeler develops submodels using an existing sequential simulation modeling tool, using the full expressive power of the tool. A set of modeling language extensions permit automatically synchronized communication between submodels; however, the automation requires that any such communication must take a nonzero amount off simulation time. Within this modeling paradigm, a variety of conservative synchronization protocols can transparently support conservative execution of submodels on potentially different processors. A specific implementation of this approach, U.P.S. (Utilitarian Parallel Simulator), is described, along with performance results on the Intel Paragon.

Waste tyre pyrolysis: modelling of a moving bed reactor.

PubMed

Aylón, E; Fernández-Colino, A; Murillo, R; Grasa, G; Navarro, M V; García, T; Mastral, A M

2010-12-01

This paper describes the development of a new model for waste tyre pyrolysis in a moving bed reactor. This model comprises three different sub-models: a kinetic sub-model that predicts solid conversion in terms of reaction time and temperature, a heat transfer sub-model that calculates the temperature profile inside the particle and the energy flux from the surroundings to the tyre particles and, finally, a hydrodynamic model that predicts the solid flow pattern inside the reactor. These three sub-models have been integrated in order to develop a comprehensive reactor model. Experimental results were obtained in a continuous moving bed reactor and used to validate model predictions, with good approximation achieved between the experimental and simulated results. In addition, a parametric study of the model was carried out, which showed that tyre particle heating is clearly faster than average particle residence time inside the reactor. Therefore, this fast particle heating together with fast reaction kinetics enables total solid conversion to be achieved in this system in accordance with the predictive model. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development and application of earth system models.

PubMed

Prinn, Ronald G

2013-02-26

The global environment is a complex and dynamic system. Earth system modeling is needed to help understand changes in interacting subsystems, elucidate the influence of human activities, and explore possible future changes. Integrated assessment of environment and human development is arguably the most difficult and most important "systems" problem faced. To illustrate this approach, we present results from the integrated global system model (IGSM), which consists of coupled submodels addressing economic development, atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics, and ecosystem processes. An uncertainty analysis implies that without mitigation policies, the global average surface temperature may rise between 3.5 °C and 7.4 °C from 1981-2000 to 2091-2100 (90% confidence limits). Polar temperatures, absent policy, are projected to rise from about 6.4 °C to 14 °C (90% confidence limits). Similar analysis of four increasingly stringent climate mitigation policy cases involving stabilization of greenhouse gases at various levels indicates that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes. The IGSM is also used to elucidate potential unintended environmental consequences of renewable energy at large scales. There are significant reasons for attention to climate adaptation in addition to climate mitigation that earth system models can help inform. These models can also be applied to evaluate whether "climate engineering" is a viable option or a dangerous diversion. We must prepare young people to address this issue: The problem of preserving a habitable planet will engage present and future generations. Scientists must improve communication if research is to inform the public and policy makers better.

On the hierarchy of partially invariant submodels of differential equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golovin, Sergey V.

2008-07-01

It is noted that the partially invariant solution (PIS) of differential equations in many cases can be represented as an invariant reduction of some PISs of the higher rank. This introduces a hierarchic structure in the set of all PISs of a given system of differential equations. An equivalence of the two-step and the direct ways of construction of PISs is proved. The hierarchy simplifies the process of enumeration and analysis of partially invariant submodels to the given system of differential equations. In this framework, the complete classification of regular partially invariant solutions of ideal MHD equations is given.

Technical Reference Manual: NATO Planning Guide for the Estimation of Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN), Casualties, Allied Medical Publication-8(C)

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-08-01

use of these submodels was reached. The details of the four agent-specific meetings, including the dates , locations, and participating SMEs are...Protected Armored Personnel Carrier – Closed 0% 0% Armored Personnel Carrier – Moving 50% 0% Armored Personnel Carrier – Open 100% 0% Earth Shelter 75...limited number of radioisotopes , typically emitting gamma and/or beta radiation. RDDs include at least two types of radiation sources: 1) point

Development and application of earth system models

PubMed Central

Prinn, Ronald G.

2013-01-01

The global environment is a complex and dynamic system. Earth system modeling is needed to help understand changes in interacting subsystems, elucidate the influence of human activities, and explore possible future changes. Integrated assessment of environment and human development is arguably the most difficult and most important “systems” problem faced. To illustrate this approach, we present results from the integrated global system model (IGSM), which consists of coupled submodels addressing economic development, atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics, and ecosystem processes. An uncertainty analysis implies that without mitigation policies, the global average surface temperature may rise between 3.5 °C and 7.4 °C from 1981–2000 to 2091–2100 (90% confidence limits). Polar temperatures, absent policy, are projected to rise from about 6.4 °C to 14 °C (90% confidence limits). Similar analysis of four increasingly stringent climate mitigation policy cases involving stabilization of greenhouse gases at various levels indicates that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes. The IGSM is also used to elucidate potential unintended environmental consequences of renewable energy at large scales. There are significant reasons for attention to climate adaptation in addition to climate mitigation that earth system models can help inform. These models can also be applied to evaluate whether “climate engineering” is a viable option or a dangerous diversion. We must prepare young people to address this issue: The problem of preserving a habitable planet will engage present and future generations. Scientists must improve communication if research is to inform the public and policy makers better. PMID:22706645

Software life cycle dynamic simulation model: The organizational performance submodel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tausworthe, Robert C.

1985-01-01

The submodel structure of a software life cycle dynamic simulation model is described. The software process is divided into seven phases, each with product, staff, and funding flows. The model is subdivided into an organizational response submodel, a management submodel, a management influence interface, and a model analyst interface. The concentration here is on the organizational response model, which simulates the performance characteristics of a software development subject to external and internal influences. These influences emanate from two sources: the model analyst interface, which configures the model to simulate the response of an implementing organization subject to its own internal influences, and the management submodel that exerts external dynamic control over the production process. A complete characterization is given of the organizational response submodel in the form of parameterized differential equations governing product, staffing, and funding levels. The parameter values and functions are allocated to the two interfaces.

Tailored Testing Theory and Practice: A Basic Model, Normal Ogive Submodels, and Tailored Testing Algorithms

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-08-01

ACCESSION NO «• TITLE (and Sublltle) TAILORED TESTING THEORY AND PRACTICE: A BASIC MODEL , NORMAL OGIVE SUBMODELS, AND TAILORED TESTING ALGORITHMS 7...single common-factor model , the author derives the two- and three-parametir normal ogfve il’^irTr^ functions as submodels. For both of these...PAOEfWiwi Dmia Bnfnd) NPRDC TR 83-32 AUGUST 1983 TAILORED TESTING THEORY AND PRACTICE: A BASIC MODEL , NORMAL OGIVE SUBMODELS, AND TAILORED TESTING

Prediction of climate change in Brunei Darussalam using statistical downscaling model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Dk. Siti Nurul Ain binti Pg. Ali; Ratnayake, Uditha; Shams, Shahriar; Nayan, Zuliana Binti Hj; Rahman, Ena Kartina Abdul

2017-06-01

Climate is changing and evidence suggests that the impact of climate change would influence our everyday lives, including agriculture, built environment, energy management, food security and water resources. Brunei Darussalam located within the heart of Borneo will be affected both in terms of precipitation and temperature. Therefore, it is crucial to comprehend and assess how important climate indicators like temperature and precipitation are expected to vary in the future in order to minimise its impact. This study assesses the application of a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) for downscaling General Circulation Model (GCM) results for maximum and minimum temperatures along with precipitation in Brunei Darussalam. It investigates future climate changes based on numerous scenarios using Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) and third-generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) outputs. The SDSM outputs were improved with the implementation of bias correction and also using a monthly sub-model instead of an annual sub-model. The outcomes of this assessment show that monthly sub-model performed better than the annual sub-model. This study indicates a satisfactory applicability for generation of maximum temperatures, minimum temperatures and precipitation for future periods of 2017-2046 and 2047-2076. All considered models and the scenarios were consistent in predicting increasing trend of maximum temperature, increasing trend of minimum temperature and decreasing trend of precipitations. Maximum overall trend of Tmax was also observed for CanESM2 with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario. The increasing trend is 0.014 °C per year. Accordingly, by 2076, the highest prediction of average maximum temperatures is that it will increase by 1.4 °C. The same model predicts an increasing trend of Tmin of 0.004 °C per year, while the highest trend is seen under CGCM3-A2 scenario which is 0.009 °C per year. The highest change predicted for the Tmin is therefore 0.9 °C by 2076. The precipitation showed a maximum trend of decrease of 12.7 mm year. It is also seen in the output using CanESM2 data that precipitation will be more chaotic with some reaching 4800 mm per year and also producing low rainfall about 1800 mm per year. All GCMs considered are consistent in predicting it is very likely that Brunei is expected to experience more warming as well as less frequent precipitation events but with a possibility of intensified and drastically high rainfalls in the future.

Sub-Model Partial Least Squares for Improved Accuracy in Quantitative Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, R. B.; Clegg, S. M.; Frydenvang, J.

2015-12-01

One of the primary challenges faced by the ChemCam instrument on the Curiosity Mars rover is developing a regression model that can accurately predict the composition of the wide range of target types encountered (basalts, calcium sulfate, feldspar, oxides, etc.). The original calibration used 69 rock standards to train a partial least squares (PLS) model for each major element. By expanding the suite of calibration samples to >400 targets spanning a wider range of compositions, the accuracy of the model was improved, but some targets with "extreme" compositions (e.g. pure minerals) were still poorly predicted. We have therefore developed a simple method, referred to as "submodel PLS", to improve the performance of PLS across a wide range of target compositions. In addition to generating a "full" (0-100 wt.%) PLS model for the element of interest, we also generate several overlapping submodels (e.g. for SiO2, we generate "low" (0-50 wt.%), "mid" (30-70 wt.%), and "high" (60-100 wt.%) models). The submodels are generally more accurate than the "full" model for samples within their range because they are able to adjust for matrix effects that are specific to that range. To predict the composition of an unknown target, we first predict the composition with the submodels and the "full" model. Then, based on the predicted composition from the "full" model, the appropriate submodel prediction can be used (e.g. if the full model predicts a low composition, use the "low" model result, which is likely to be more accurate). For samples with "full" predictions that occur in a region of overlap between submodels, the submodel predictions are "blended" using a simple linear weighted sum. The submodel PLS method shows improvements in most of the major elements predicted by ChemCam and reduces the occurrence of negative predictions for low wt.% targets. Submodel PLS is currently being used in conjunction with ICA regression for the major element compositions of ChemCam data.

Seismic damage analysis of the outlet piers of arch dams using the finite element sub-model method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Liangfeng; Wu, Mingxin; Wang, Jinting; Xu, Yanjie

2016-09-01

This study aims to analyze seismic damage of reinforced outlet piers of arch dams by the nonlinear finite element (FE) sub-model method. First, the dam-foundation system is modeled and analyzed, in which the effects of infinite foundation, contraction joints, and nonlinear concrete are taken into account. The detailed structures of the outlet pier are then simulated with a refined FE model in the sub-model analysis. In this way the damage mechanism of the plain (unreinforced) outlet pier is analyzed, and the effects of two reinforcement measures (i.e., post-tensioned anchor cables and reinforcing bar) on the dynamic damage to the outlet pier are investigated comprehensively. Results show that the plain pier is damaged severely by strong earthquakes while implementation of post-tensioned anchor cables strengthens the pier effectively. In addition, radiation damping strongly alleviates seismic damage to the piers.

A modular BLSS simulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rummel, John D.; Volk, Tyler

1987-01-01

A bioregenerative life support system (BLSS) for extraterrestrial use will be faced with coordination problems more acute than those in any ecosystem found on Earth. A related problem in BLSS design is providing an interface between the various life support processors, one that will allow for their coordination while still allowing for system expansion. A modular model is presented of a BLSS that interfaces system processors only with the material storage reservoirs, allowing those reservoirs to act as the principal buffers in the system and thus minimizing difficulties with processor coordination. The modular nature of the model allows independent development of the detailed submodels that exist within the model framework. Using this model, BLSS dynamics were investigated under normal conditions and under various failure modes. Partial and complete failures of various components, such as the waste processors or the plants themselves, drive transient responses in the model system, allowing the examination of the effectiveness of the system reservoirs as buffers. The results from simulations help to determine control strategies and BLSS design requirements. An evolved version could be used as an interactive control aid in a future BLSS.

Large liquid rocket engine transient performance simulation system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mason, J. R.; Southwick, R. D.

1989-01-01

Phase 1 of the Rocket Engine Transient Simulation (ROCETS) program consists of seven technical tasks: architecture; system requirements; component and submodel requirements; submodel implementation; component implementation; submodel testing and verification; and subsystem testing and verification. These tasks were completed. Phase 2 of ROCETS consists of two technical tasks: Technology Test Bed Engine (TTBE) model data generation; and system testing verification. During this period specific coding of the system processors was begun and the engineering representations of Phase 1 were expanded to produce a simple model of the TTBE. As the code was completed, some minor modifications to the system architecture centering on the global variable common, GLOBVAR, were necessary to increase processor efficiency. The engineering modules completed during Phase 2 are listed: INJTOO - main injector; MCHBOO - main chamber; NOZLOO - nozzle thrust calculations; PBRNOO - preburner; PIPE02 - compressible flow without inertia; PUMPOO - polytropic pump; ROTROO - rotor torque balance/speed derivative; and TURBOO - turbine. Detailed documentation of these modules is in the Appendix. In addition to the engineering modules, several submodules were also completed. These submodules include combustion properties, component performance characteristics (maps), and specific utilities. Specific coding was begun on the system configuration processor. All functions necessary for multiple module operation were completed but the SOLVER implementation is still under development. This system, the Verification Checkout Facility (VCF) allows interactive comparison of module results to store data as well as provides an intermediate checkout of the processor code. After validation using the VCF, the engineering modules and submodules were used to build a simple TTBE.

On Least Squares Fitting Nonlinear Submodels.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bechtel, Gordon G.

Three simplifying conditions are given for obtaining least squares (LS) estimates for a nonlinear submodel of a linear model. If these are satisfied, and if the subset of nonlinear parameters may be LS fit to the corresponding LS estimates of the linear model, then one attains the desired LS estimates for the entire submodel. Two illustrative…

The impact of SciDAC on US climate change research and the IPCCAR4

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wehner, Michael

2005-07-08

SciDAC has invested heavily in climate change research. We offer a candid opinion as to the impact of the DOE laboratories' SciDAC projects on the upcoming Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. As a result of the direct importance of climate change to society, climate change research is highly coordinated at the international level. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is charged with providing regular reports on the state of climate change research to government policymakers. These reports are the product of thousands of scientists efforts. A series of reviews involving both scientists and policymakersmore » make them among the most reviewed documents produced in any scientific field. The high profile of these reports acts a driver to many researchers in the climate sciences. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) is scheduled to be released in 2007. SciDAC sponsored research has enabled the United States climate modeling community to make significant contributions to this report. Two large multi-Laboratory SciDAC projects are directly relevant to the activities of the IPCC. The first, entitled ''Collaborative Design and Development of the Community Climate System Model for Terascale Computers'', has made important software contributions to the recently released third version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3.0) developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. This is a multi-institutional project involving Los Alamos National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Argonne National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The original principal investigators were Robert Malone and John B. Drake. The current principal investigators are Phil Jones and John B. Drake. The second project, entitled ''Earth System Grid II: Turning Climate Datasets into Community Resources'' aims to facilitate the distribution of the copious amounts of data produced by coupled climate model integrations to the general scientific community. This is also a multi-institutional project involving Argonne National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The principal investigators are Ian Foster, Don Middleton and Dean Williams. Perhaps most significant among the activities of the ''Collaborative Design'', project was the development of an efficient multi-processor coupling package. CCSM3.0 is an extraordinarily complicated physics code. The fully coupled model consists of separate submodels of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land. In addition, comprehensive biogeochemistry and atmospheric chemistry submodels are under intensive current development. Each of these submodels is a large and sophisticated program in its own right. Furthermore, in the coupled model, each of the submodels, including the coupler, is a separate multiprocessor executable program. The coupler package must efficiently coordinate the communication as well as interpolate or aggregate information between these programs. This regridding function is necessary because each major subsystem (air, water or surface) is allowed to have its own independent grid.« less

Vibration analysis of rotor systems using reduced subsystem models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fan, Uei-Jiun; Noah, Sherif T.

1989-01-01

A general impedance method using reduced submodels has been developed for the linear dynamic analysis of rotor systems. Formulated in terms of either modal or physical coordinates of the subsystems, the method enables imbalance responses at specific locations of the rotor systems to be efficiently determined from a small number of 'master' degrees of freedom. To demonstrate the capability of this impedance approach, the Space Shuttle Main Engine high-pressure oxygen turbopump has been investigated to determine the bearing loads due to imbalance. Based on the same formulation, an eigenvalue analysis has been performed to study the system stability. A small 5-DOF model has been utilized to illustrate the application of the method to eigenvalue analysis. Because of its inherent characteristics of allowing formulation of reduced submodels, the impedance method can significantly increase the computational speed.

Evaluation of joint probability density function models for turbulent nonpremixed combustion with complex chemistry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, N. S. A.; Frolov, S. M.; Bowman, C. T.

1996-01-01

Two types of mixing sub-models are evaluated in connection with a joint-scalar probability density function method for turbulent nonpremixed combustion. Model calculations are made and compared to simulation results for homogeneously distributed methane-air reaction zones mixing and reacting in decaying turbulence within a two-dimensional enclosed domain. The comparison is arranged to ensure that both the simulation and model calculations a) make use of exactly the same chemical mechanism, b) do not involve non-unity Lewis number transport of species, and c) are free from radiation loss. The modified Curl mixing sub-model was found to provide superior predictive accuracy over the simple relaxation-to-mean submodel in the case studied. Accuracy to within 10-20% was found for global means of major species and temperature; however, nitric oxide prediction accuracy was lower and highly dependent on the choice of mixing sub-model. Both mixing submodels were found to produce non-physical mixing behavior for mixture fractions removed from the immediate reaction zone. A suggestion for a further modified Curl mixing sub-model is made in connection with earlier work done in the field.

An "island" in the stratosphere - on the enhanced annual variation of water vapour in the middle and upper stratosphere in the southern tropics and subtropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lossow, Stefan; Garny, Hella; Jöckel, Patrick

2017-09-01

The amplitude of the annual variation in water vapour exhibits a distinct isolated maximum in the middle and upper stratosphere in the southern tropics and subtropics, peaking typically around 15° S in latitude and close to 3 hPa (˜ 40.5 km) in altitude. This enhanced annual variation is primarily related to the Brewer-Dobson circulation and hence also visible in other trace gases. So far this feature has not gained much attention in the literature and the present work aims to add more prominence. Using Envisat/MIPAS (Environmental Satellite/Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) observations and ECHAM/MESSy (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Hamburg/Modular Earth Submodel System) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) simulations we provide a dedicated illustration and a full account of the reasons for this enhanced annual variation.

Effects of real time control of sewer systems on treatment plant performance and receiving water quality.

PubMed

Frehmann, T; Niemann, A; Ustohal, P; Geiger, W F

2002-01-01

Four individual mathematical submodels simulating different subsystems of urban drainage were intercoupled to an integral model. The submodels (for surface runoff, flow in sewer system, wastewater treatment plant and receiving water) were calibrated on the basis of field data measured in an existing urban catchment investigation. Three different strategies for controlling the discharge in the sewer network were defined and implemented in the integral model. The impact of these control measures was quantified by representative immission state-parameters of the receiving water. The results reveal that the effect of a control measure may be ambivalent, depending on the referred component of a complex drainage system. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the drainage system in the catchment investigation can be considerably optimised towards environmental protection and operation efficiency if an appropriate real time control on the integral scale is applied.

An integrated draft gear model with the consideration of wagon body structural characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Gao; Liangliang, Yang; Weihua, Ma; Min, Zhang; Shihui, Luo

2018-03-01

With the increase of railway wagon axle load and the growth of marshalling quantity, the problem caused by impact and vibration of vehicles is increasingly serious, which leads to the damage of vehicle structures and the components. In order to improve the reliability of longitudinal connection model for vehicle impact tests, a new railway wagon longitudinal connection model was developed to simulate and analyse vehicle impact tests. The new model is based on characteristics of longitudinal force transmission for vehicles and parts. In this model, carbodies and bogies were simplified to a particle system that can vibrate in the longitudinal direction, which corresponded to a stiffness-damping vibration system. The model consists of three sub-models, that is, coupler and draft gear sub-model, centre plate sub-model and carbody structure sub-model. Compared with conventional draft gear models, the new model was proposed with geometrical and mechanical relations of friction draft gears considered and with behaviours of sticking, sliding and impact between centre plate and centre bowl added. Besides, virtual springs between discrete carbodies were built to describe the structural deformation of carbody. A computation program for longitudinal dynamics based on vehicle impact tests was accomplished to simulate. Comparisons and analyses regarding the train dynamics outputs and vehicle impact tests were conducted. Simulation results indicate that the new wagon longitudinal connection model can provide a practical application environment for wagons, and the outputs of vehicle impact tests agree with those of field tests. The new model can also be used to study on longitudinal vibrations of different vehicles, of carbody and bogie, and of carbody itself.

Measurement and modeling of advanced coal conversion processes, Volume II

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Solomon, P.R.; Serio, M.A.; Hamblen, D.G.

1993-06-01

A two dimensional, steady-state model for describing a variety of reactive and nonreactive flows, including pulverized coal combustion and gasification, is presented. The model, referred to as 93-PCGC-2 is applicable to cylindrical, axi-symmetric systems. Turbulence is accounted for in both the fluid mechanics equations and the combustion scheme. Radiation from gases, walls, and particles is taken into account using a discrete ordinates method. The particle phase is modeled in a lagrangian framework, such that mean paths of particle groups are followed. A new coal-general devolatilization submodel (FG-DVC) with coal swelling and char reactivity submodels has been added.

Preparing the EPIC Model for Evaluating Bioenergy Production Systems: A Test of the Denitrification Submodel using a Long-Term Dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manowitz, D. H.; Schwab, D. E.; Izaurralde, R. C.

2010-12-01

As bioenergy production continues to increase, it is important to be able to predict not only the crop yields that are expected from future production, but also the various environmental impacts that will accompany it. Therefore, models that can be used to make such predictions must be validated against as many of these agricultural outputs as possible. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model is a widely used and tested model for simulating many agricultural ecosystem processes including plant growth, crop yield, carbon and nutrient cycling, wind and water erosion, runoff, leaching, as well as changes in soil physical and chemical properties. This model has undergone many improvements, including the addition of a process-based denitrification submodel. Here we evaluate the performance of EPIC in its ability to simulate nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes and related variables as observed in selected treatments of the Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) cropping systems study at Kellogg Biological Station (KBS). We will provide a brief description of the EPIC model in the context of bioenergy production, describe the denitrification submodel, and compare simulated and observed values of crop yields, N2O emissions, soil carbon dynamics, and soil moisture.

A review of unmanned aircraft system ground risk models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Washington, Achim; Clothier, Reece A.; Silva, Jose

2017-11-01

There is much effort being directed towards the development of safety regulations for unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). National airworthiness authorities have advocated the adoption of a risk-based approach, whereby regulations are driven by the outcomes of a systematic process to assess and manage identified safety risks. Subsequently, models characterising the primary hazards associated with UAS operations have now become critical to the development of regulations and in turn, to the future of the industry. Key to the development of airworthiness regulations for UAS is a comprehensive understanding of the risks UAS operations pose to people and property on the ground. A comprehensive review of the literature identified 33 different models (and component sub models) used to estimate ground risk posed by UAS. These models comprise failure, impact location, recovery, stress, exposure, incident stress and harm sub-models. The underlying assumptions and treatment of uncertainties in each of these sub-models differ significantly between models, which can have a significant impact on the development of regulations. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art in research into UAS ground risk modelling, discusses how the various sub-models relate to the different components of the regulation, and explores how model-uncertainties potentially impact the development of regulations for UAS.

Detailed model for practical pulverized coal furnaces and gasifiers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, P.J.; Smoot, L.D.

1989-08-01

This study has been supported by a consortium of nine industrial and governmental sponsors. Work was initiated on May 1, 1985 and completed August 31, 1989. The central objective of this work was to develop, evaluate and apply a practical combustion model for utility boilers, industrial furnaces and gasifiers. Key accomplishments have included: Development of an advanced first-generation, computer model for combustion in three dimensional furnaces; development of a new first generation fouling and slagging submodel; detailed evaluation of an existing NO{sub x} submodel; development and evaluation of an improved radiation submodel; preparation and distribution of a three-volume final report:more » (a) Volume 1: General Technical Report; (b) Volume 2: PCGC-3 User's Manual; (c) Volume 3: Data Book for Evaluation of Three-Dimensional Combustion Models; and organization of a user's workshop on the three-dimensional code. The furnace computer model developed under this study requires further development before it can be applied generally to all applications; however, it can be used now by specialists for many specific applications, including non-combusting systems and combusting geseous systems. A new combustion center was organized and work was initiated to continue the important research effort initiated by this study. 212 refs., 72 figs., 38 tabs.« less

Convergance experiments with a hydrodynamic model of Port Royal Sound, South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, J.K.; Schaffranek, R.W.; Baltzer, R.A.

1989-01-01

A two-demensional, depth-averaged, finite-difference, flow/transport model, SIM2D, is being used to simulate tidal circulation and transport in the Port Royal Sound, South Carolina, estuarine system. Models of a subregion of the Port Royal Sound system have been derived from an earlier-developed model of the entire system having a grid size of 600 ft. The submodels were implemented with grid sizes of 600, 300, and 150 ft in order to determine the effects of changes in grid size on computed flows in the subregion, which is characterized by narrow channels and extensive tidal flats that flood and dewater with each rise and fall of the tide. Tidal amplitudes changes less than 5 percent as the grid size was decreased. Simulations were performed with the 300-foot submodel for time steps of 60, 30, and 15 s. Study results are discussed.

On the sub-model errors of a generalized one-way coupling scheme for linking models at different scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Jicai; Zha, Yuanyuan; Zhang, Yonggen; Shi, Liangsheng; Zhu, Yan; Yang, Jinzhong

2017-11-01

Multi-scale modeling of the localized groundwater flow problems in a large-scale aquifer has been extensively investigated under the context of cost-benefit controversy. An alternative is to couple the parent and child models with different spatial and temporal scales, which may result in non-trivial sub-model errors in the local areas of interest. Basically, such errors in the child models originate from the deficiency in the coupling methods, as well as from the inadequacy in the spatial and temporal discretizations of the parent and child models. In this study, we investigate the sub-model errors within a generalized one-way coupling scheme given its numerical stability and efficiency, which enables more flexibility in choosing sub-models. To couple the models at different scales, the head solution at parent scale is delivered downward onto the child boundary nodes by means of the spatial and temporal head interpolation approaches. The efficiency of the coupling model is improved either by refining the grid or time step size in the parent and child models, or by carefully locating the sub-model boundary nodes. The temporal truncation errors in the sub-models can be significantly reduced by the adaptive local time-stepping scheme. The generalized one-way coupling scheme is promising to handle the multi-scale groundwater flow problems with complex stresses and heterogeneity.

The economic efficiency of conservation measures for amphibians in organic farming--results from bio-economic modelling.

PubMed

Schuler, Johannes; Sattler, Claudia; Helmecke, Angela; Zander, Peter; Uthes, Sandra; Bachinger, Johann; Stein-Bachinger, Karin

2013-01-15

This paper presents a whole farm bio-economic modelling approach for the assessment and optimisation of amphibian conservation conditions applied at the example of a large scale organic farm in North-Eastern Germany. The assessment focuses mainly on the habitat quality as affected by conservation measures such as through specific adapted crop production activities (CPA) and in-field buffer strips for the European tree frog (Hyla arborea), considering also interrelations with other amphibian species (i.e. common spadefoot toad (Pelobates fuscus), fire-bellied toad (Bombina bombina)). The aim of the approach is to understand, analyse and optimize the relationships between the ecological and economic performance of an organic farming system, based on the expectation that amphibians are differently impacted by different CPAs. The modelling system consists of a set of different sub-models that generate a farm model on the basis of environmentally evaluated CPAs. A crop-rotation sub-model provides a set of agronomically sustainable crop rotations that ensures overall sufficient nitrogen supply and controls weed, pest and disease infestations. An economic sub-model calculates the gross margins for each possible CPA including costs of inputs such as labour and machinery. The conservation effects of the CPAs are assessed with an ecological sub-model evaluates the potential negative or positive effect that each work step of a CPA has on amphibians. A mathematical programming sub-model calculates the optimal farm organization taking into account the limited factors of the farm (e.g. labour, land) as well as ecological improvements. In sequential model runs, the habitat quality is to be improved by the model, while the highest possible gross margin is still to be achieved. The results indicate that the model can be used to show the scope of action that a farmer has to improve habitat quality by reducing damage to amphibian population on its land during agricultural activities. Thereby, depending on the level of habitat quality that is aimed at, different measures may provide the most efficient solution. Lower levels of conservation can be achieved with low-cost adapted CPAs, such as an increased cutting height, reduced sowing density and grubbing instead of ploughing. Higher levels of conservation require e.g. grassland-like managed buffer strips around ponds in sensible areas, which incur much higher on-farm conservation costs. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Field testing of thermal canopy models in a spruce-fir forest

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1990-01-01

Recent advances in remote sensing technology allow the use of the thermal infrared region to gain information about vegetative surfaces. Extending existing models to account for thermal radiance transfers within rough forest canopies is of paramount importance. This is so since all processes of interest in the physical climate system and biogeochemical cycles are thermally mediated. Model validation experiments were conducted at a well established boreal forest; northern hardwood forest ecotone research site located in central Maine. Data was collected to allow spatial and temporal validation of thermal models. Emphasis was placed primarily upon enhancing submodels of stomatal behavior, and secondarily upon enhancing boundary layer resistance submodels and accounting for thermal storage in soil and vegetation.

A model and numerical method for compressible flows with capillary effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schmidmayer, Kevin, E-mail: kevin.schmidmayer@univ-amu.fr; Petitpas, Fabien, E-mail: fabien.petitpas@univ-amu.fr; Daniel, Eric, E-mail: eric.daniel@univ-amu.fr

2017-04-01

A new model for interface problems with capillary effects in compressible fluids is presented together with a specific numerical method to treat capillary flows and pressure waves propagation. This new multiphase model is in agreement with physical principles of conservation and respects the second law of thermodynamics. A new numerical method is also proposed where the global system of equations is split into several submodels. Each submodel is hyperbolic or weakly hyperbolic and can be solved with an adequate numerical method. This method is tested and validated thanks to comparisons with analytical solutions (Laplace law) and with experimental results onmore » droplet breakup induced by a shock wave.« less

Decomposition of timed automata for solving scheduling problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishi, Tatsushi; Wakatake, Masato

2014-03-01

A decomposition algorithm for scheduling problems based on timed automata (TA) model is proposed. The problem is represented as an optimal state transition problem for TA. The model comprises of the parallel composition of submodels such as jobs and resources. The procedure of the proposed methodology can be divided into two steps. The first step is to decompose the TA model into several submodels by using decomposable condition. The second step is to combine individual solution of subproblems for the decomposed submodels by the penalty function method. A feasible solution for the entire model is derived through the iterated computation of solving the subproblem for each submodel. The proposed methodology is applied to solve flowshop and jobshop scheduling problems. Computational experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm compared with a conventional TA scheduling algorithm without decomposition.

The application of dam break monitoring based on BJ-2 images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Yan; Li, Suju; Wu, Wei; Liu, Ming

2018-03-01

Flood is one of the major disasters in China. There are heavy intensity and wide range rainstorm during flood season in eastern part of China, and the flood control capacity of rivers is lower somewhere, so the flood disaster is abrupt and caused lots of direct economic losses. In this paper, based on BJ-2 Spatio-temporal resolution remote sensing data, reference image, 30-meter Global Land Cover Dataset(GlobeLand 30) and basic geographic data, forming Dam break monitoring model which including BJ-2 date processing sub-model, flood inundation range monitoring sub-model, dam break change monitoring sub-model and crop inundation monitoring sub-model. Case analysis in Poyang County Jiangxi province in 20th, Jun, 2016 show that the model has a high precision and could monitoring flood inundation range, crops inundation range and breach.

A multiphysics 3D model of tissue growth under interstitial perfusion in a tissue-engineering bioreactor.

PubMed

Nava, Michele M; Raimondi, Manuela T; Pietrabissa, Riccardo

2013-11-01

The main challenge in engineered cartilage consists in understanding and controlling the growth process towards a functional tissue. Mathematical and computational modelling can help in the optimal design of the bioreactor configuration and in a quantitative understanding of important culture parameters. In this work, we present a multiphysics computational model for the prediction of cartilage tissue growth in an interstitial perfusion bioreactor. The model consists of two separate sub-models, one two-dimensional (2D) sub-model and one three-dimensional (3D) sub-model, which are coupled between each other. These sub-models account both for the hydrodynamic microenvironment imposed by the bioreactor, using a model based on the Navier-Stokes equation, the mass transport equation and the biomass growth. The biomass, assumed as a phase comprising cells and the synthesised extracellular matrix, has been modelled by using a moving boundary approach. In particular, the boundary at the fluid-biomass interface is moving with a velocity depending from the local oxygen concentration and viscous stress. In this work, we show that all parameters predicted, such as oxygen concentration and wall shear stress, by the 2D sub-model with respect to the ones predicted by the 3D sub-model are systematically overestimated and thus the tissue growth, which directly depends on these parameters. This implies that further predictive models for tissue growth should take into account of the three dimensionality of the problem for any scaffold microarchitecture.

Defect, Kinetics and Heat Transfer of CDTE Bridgman Growth without Wall Contact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larson, D. J., Jr.; Zhang, H.

2003-01-01

A detached growth mechanism has been proposed, which is similar to that proposed by Duffar et al. and used to study the current detached growth system. From numerical results, we can conclude that detached growth will more likely appear if the growth and wetting angles are large and meniscus is flat. Detached thickness is dependent on growth angle, wetting angle, and gap width and shape of the fins. The model can also explain why the detached growth will not happen for metals in which the growth angle is almost zero. Since the growth angle of CdZnTe cannot be changed, to promote detached growth, the number density of the fins should be low and the wetting angle should be high. Also, a much smaller gap width of the fins should be used in the ground experiment and the detached gap width is much smaller. The shape of the fins has minor influence on detached growth. An integrated numerical model for detached solidification has been developed combining a global heat transfer sub-model and a wall contact sub-model. The global heat transfer sub-model accounts for heat and mass transfer in the multiphase system, convection in the melt, macro-segregation, and interface dynamics. The location and dynamics of the solidification interface are accurately tracked by a multizone adaptive grid generation scheme. The wall contact sub-model accounts for the meniscus dynamics at the three-phase boundary. Simulations have been performed for crystal growth in a conventional ampoule and a designed ampoule to understand the benefits of detached solidification and its impacts on crystalline structural quality, e.g., stoichiometry, macro-segregation, and stress. From simulation results, both the Grashof and Marangoni numbers will have significant effects on the shape of growth front, Zn concentration distribution, and radial segregation. The integrated model can be used in designing apparatus and determining the optimal geometry for detached solidification in space and on the ground.

A Mathematical Model for an Educational System.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McReynolds, William Peter

The document contents divide into (1) the basic flow model of an educational system and its application to the secondary school system of Ontario and (2) a group of interrelated submodels that describe the entrance to higher education in considerably finer detail. In the first section, the principal variable of the model--the transition…

A new MRI land surface model HAL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosaka, M.

2011-12-01

A land surface model HAL is newly developed for MRI-ESM1. It is used for the CMIP simulations. HAL consists of three submodels: SiByl (vegetation), SNOWA (snow) and SOILA (soil) in the current version. It also contains a land coupler LCUP which connects some submodels and an atmospheric model. The vegetation submodel SiByl has surface vegetation processes similar to JMA/SiB (Sato et al. 1987, Hirai et al. 2007). SiByl has 2 vegetation layers (canopy and grass) and calculates heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere. The snow submodel SNOWA can have any number of snow layers and the maximum value is set to 8 for the CMIP5 experiments. Temperature, SWE, density, grain size and the aerosol deposition contents of each layer are predicted. The snow properties including the grain size are predicted due to snow metamorphism processes (Niwano et al., 2011), and the snow albedo is diagnosed from the aerosol mixing ratio, the snow properties and the temperature (Aoki et al., 2011). The soil submodel SOILA can also have any number of soil layers, and is composed of 14 soil layers in the CMIP5 experiments. The temperature of each layer is predicted by solving heat conduction equations. The soil moisture is predicted by solving the Darcy equation, in which hydraulic conductivity depends on the soil moisture. The land coupler LCUP is designed to enable the complicated constructions of the submidels. HAL can include some competing submodels (precise and detailed ones, and simpler ones), and they can run at the same simulations. LCUP enables a 2-step model validation, in which we compare the results of the detailed submodels with the in-situ observation directly at the 1st step, and follows the comparison between them and those of the simpler ones at the 2nd step. When the performances of the detailed ones are good, we can improve the simpler ones by using the detailed ones as reference models.

Generalized mathematical model of red muds’ thickener of alumina production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fedorova, E. R.; Vinogradova, A. A.

2018-03-01

The article describes the principle of a generalized mathematical model of the red mud’s thickener construction. The model of the red muds’ thickener of alumina production consists of sub-models of flocculation zones containing solid fraction feed slurry, free-fall and cramped sedimentation zones or effective sedimentation zones, bleaching zones. The generalized mathematical model of thickener allows predicting the content of solid fraction in the condensed product and in the upper discharge. The sub-model of solid phase aggregation allows one to count up average size of floccules, which is created during the flocculation process in feedwell. The sub-model of the free-fall and cramped sedimentation zone allows one to count up the concentration profile taking into account the variable cross-sectional area of the thickener. The sub-model of the bleaching zone is constructed on the basis of the theory of the precipitation of Kinc, supplemented by correction factors.

CIM-EARTH: Community Integrated Model of Economic and Resource Trajectories for Humankind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, I.; Elliott, J.; Munson, T.; Judd, K.; Moyer, E. J.; Sanstad, A. H.

2010-12-01

We report here on the development of an open source software framework termed CIM-EARTH that is intended to aid decision-making in climate and energy policy. Numerical modeling in support of evaluating policies to address climate change is difficult not only because of inherent uncertainties but because of the differences in scale and modeling approach required for various subcomponents of the system. Economic and climate models are structured quite differently, and while climate forcing can be assumed to be roughly global, climate impacts and the human response to them occur on small spatial scales. Mitigation policies likewise can be applied on scales ranging from the better part of a continent (e.g. a carbon cap-and-trade program for the entire U.S.) to a few hundred km (e.g. statewide renewable portfolio standards and local gasoline taxes). Both spatial and time resolution requirements can be challenging for global economic models. CIM-EARTH is a modular framework based around dynamic general equilibrium models. It is designed as a community tool that will enable study of the environmental benefits, transition costs, capitalization effects, and other consequences of both mitigation policies and unchecked climate change. Modularity enables both integration of highly resolved component sub-models for energy and other key systems and also user-directed choice of tradeoffs between e.g. spatial, sectoral, and time resolution. This poster describes the framework architecture, the current realized version, and plans for future releases. As with other open-source models familiar to the climate community (e.g. CCSM), deliverables will be made publicly available on a regular schedule, and community input is solicited for development of new features and modules.

Surveillance system and method having an operating mode partitioned fault classification model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bickford, Randall L. (Inventor)

2005-01-01

A system and method which partitions a parameter estimation model, a fault detection model, and a fault classification model for a process surveillance scheme into two or more coordinated submodels together providing improved diagnostic decision making for at least one determined operating mode of an asset.

A Distributed Approach to System-Level Prognostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew J.; Bregon, Anibal; Roychoudhury, Indranil

2012-01-01

Prognostics, which deals with predicting remaining useful life of components, subsystems, and systems, is a key technology for systems health management that leads to improved safety and reliability with reduced costs. The prognostics problem is often approached from a component-centric view. However, in most cases, it is not specifically component lifetimes that are important, but, rather, the lifetimes of the systems in which these components reside. The system-level prognostics problem can be quite difficult due to the increased scale and scope of the prognostics problem and the relative Jack of scalability and efficiency of typical prognostics approaches. In order to address these is ues, we develop a distributed solution to the system-level prognostics problem, based on the concept of structural model decomposition. The system model is decomposed into independent submodels. Independent local prognostics subproblems are then formed based on these local submodels, resul ting in a scalable, efficient, and flexible distributed approach to the system-level prognostics problem. We provide a formulation of the system-level prognostics problem and demonstrate the approach on a four-wheeled rover simulation testbed. The results show that the system-level prognostics problem can be accurately and efficiently solved in a distributed fashion.

Evaluating environmental and economic consequences of alternative pest management strategies: results of modeling workshops

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Richard L.; Andrews, Austin K.; Auble, Gregor T.L.; Ellison, Richard A.; Hamilton, David B.; Roelle, James E.; McNamee, Peter J.

1983-01-01

The model conceptualized at the first workshop simulates the effect of corn agrecosystem decisions on crop production, economic returns, and environmental indicators. The model is composed of five interacting submodels: 1) a Production Strategies submodel which makes decisions concerning tillage, planting, fertilizer and pesticide applications, and harvest; 2) a Hydrology/Chemical Transport submodel which represents soil hydrology, erosion, and concentrations of fertilizers and pesticides in the soil, runoff, surface waters, and percolation; 3) a Vegetation submodel which simulates growth of agricultural crops (corns and soybeans) and weeds; 4) a Pests submodel which calculates pest population levels and resulting crop damage; and 5) an Environmental Effects submodel which calculates indicators of potential fish kills, human health effects, and wildlife habitat. The most persistent data gaps encountered in quantifying the model were coefficients to relate environmental consequences to alternative pest management strategies. While the model developed in the project is not yet accurate enough to be used for real-world decisions about the use of pesticides on corn, it does contain the basic structure upon which such a model could be built. More importantly at this stage of development, the project has shown that very complex systems can be modeled in short periods of time and that the process of building such models increases understanding among disciplinary specialists and between diverse institutional interests. This process can be useful to EPA as the agency cooperates with other institutions to meet its responsibilities in less costly ways. Activities at the second 2 1/2-day workshop included a review of the model, incorporation of necessary corrections, simulation of policy scenarios, and examination of techniques to address remaining institutional conflicts. Participants were divided into three groups representing environmental, production or industry, and regulatory interests. Each group developed scenarios that would be most appealing to their particular interest and the scenarios were simulated by the agroecosystem computer model. Negotiators from each of the interest groups decided whether a hypothetical herbicide should be relabeled and if certain restrictions should be imposed on its use. Other participants functioned as experts and consultants on caucus teams. A solution to the hypothetical problem was successfully negotiated. Workshop participants and project staff agreed that the model and processes developed during the project should be used in training students, extension specialists, farmers, researchers, and chemical producers in collaborative problem solving methods. More productive research can be planned, and more realistic models of complex systems can be built in this way. More importantly, greater trust of decisionmakers in computer models, better understanding by technical experts about disciplines other than their own, and improved cooperation between institutional interests can be achieved. This trust, understanding, and cooperation are critical ingredients in solving problems that are too complex to be resolved by independent disciplinary activity and unilateral decision authority.

Towards a comprehensive framework for cosimulation of dynamic models with an emphasis on time stepping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoepfer, Matthias

Over the last two decades, computer modeling and simulation have evolved as the tools of choice for the design and engineering of dynamic systems. With increased system complexities, modeling and simulation become essential enablers for the design of new systems. Some of the advantages that modeling and simulation-based system design allows for are the replacement of physical tests to ensure product performance, reliability and quality, the shortening of design cycles due to the reduced need for physical prototyping, the design for mission scenarios, the invoking of currently nonexisting technologies, and the reduction of technological and financial risks. Traditionally, dynamic systems are modeled in a monolithic way. Such monolithic models include all the data, relations and equations necessary to represent the underlying system. With increased complexity of these models, the monolithic model approach reaches certain limits regarding for example, model handling and maintenance. Furthermore, while the available computer power has been steadily increasing according to Moore's Law (a doubling in computational power every 10 years), the ever-increasing complexities of new models have negated the increased resources available. Lastly, modern systems and design processes are interdisciplinary, enforcing the necessity to make models more flexible to be able to incorporate different modeling and design approaches. The solution to bypassing the shortcomings of monolithic models is cosimulation. In a very general sense, co-simulation addresses the issue of linking together different dynamic sub-models to a model which represents the overall, integrated dynamic system. It is therefore an important enabler for the design of interdisciplinary, interconnected, highly complex dynamic systems. While a basic co-simulation setup can be very easy, complications can arise when sub-models display behaviors such as algebraic loops, singularities, or constraints. This work frames the co-simulation approach to modeling and simulation. It lays out the general approach to dynamic system co-simulation, and gives a comprehensive overview of what co-simulation is and what it is not. It creates a taxonomy of the requirements and limits of co-simulation, and the issues arising with co-simulating sub-models. Possible solutions towards resolving the stated problems are investigated to a certain depth. A particular focus is given to the issue of time stepping. It will be shown that for dynamic models, the selection of the simulation time step is a crucial issue with respect to computational expense, simulation accuracy, and error control. The reasons for this are discussed in depth, and a time stepping algorithm for co-simulation with unknown dynamic sub-models is proposed. Motivations and suggestions for the further treatment of selected issues are presented.

Prediction of settled water turbidity and optimal coagulant dosage in drinking water treatment plant using a hybrid model of k-means clustering and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Chan Moon; Parnichkun, Manukid

2017-11-01

Coagulation is an important process in drinking water treatment to attain acceptable treated water quality. However, the determination of coagulant dosage is still a challenging task for operators, because coagulation is nonlinear and complicated process. Feedback control to achieve the desired treated water quality is difficult due to lengthy process time. In this research, a hybrid of k-means clustering and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system ( k-means-ANFIS) is proposed for the settled water turbidity prediction and the optimal coagulant dosage determination using full-scale historical data. To build a well-adaptive model to different process states from influent water, raw water quality data are classified into four clusters according to its properties by a k-means clustering technique. The sub-models are developed individually on the basis of each clustered data set. Results reveal that the sub-models constructed by a hybrid k-means-ANFIS perform better than not only a single ANFIS model, but also seasonal models by artificial neural network (ANN). The finally completed model consisting of sub-models shows more accurate and consistent prediction ability than a single model of ANFIS and a single model of ANN based on all five evaluation indices. Therefore, the hybrid model of k-means-ANFIS can be employed as a robust tool for managing both treated water quality and production costs simultaneously.

A distributed snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel)

Treesearch

Glen E. Liston; Kelly Elder

2006-01-01

SnowModel is a spatially distributed snow-evolution modeling system designed for application in landscapes, climates, and conditions where snow occurs. It is an aggregation of four submodels: MicroMet defines meteorological forcing conditions, EnBal calculates surface energy exchanges, SnowPack simulates snow depth and water-equivalent evolution, and SnowTran-3D...

A review and update of the Virginia Department of Transportation cash flow forecasting model.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-01-01

This report details the research done to review and update components of the VDOT cash flow forecasting model. Specifically, the study updated the monthly factors submodel used to predict payments on construction contracts. For the other submodel rev...

BPS sectors of the Skyrme model and their non-BPS extensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adam, C.; Foster, D.; Krusch, S.; Wereszczynski, A.

2018-02-01

Two recently found coupled Bogomol'nyi-Prasad-Sommerfield (BPS) submodels of the Skyrme model are further analyzed. First, we provide a geometrical formulation of the submodels in terms of the eigenvalues of the strain tensor. Second, we study their thermodynamical properties and show that the mean-field equations of state coincide at high pressure and read p =ρ ¯/3 . We also provide evidence that matter described by the first BPS submodel has some similarity with a Bose-Einstein condensate. Moreover, we show that extending the second submodel to a non-BPS model by including certain additional terms of the full Skyrme model does not spoil the respective ansatz, leading to an ordinary differential equation for the profile of the Skymion, for any value of the topological charge. This allows for an almost analytical description of the properties of Skyrmions in this model. In particular, we analytically study the breaking and restoration of the BPS property. Finally, we provide an explanation of the success of the rational map ansatz.

Second Generation Crop Yield Models Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hodges, T. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

Second generation yield models, including crop growth simulation models and plant process models, may be suitable for large area crop yield forecasting in the yield model development project. Subjective and objective criteria for model selection are defined and models which might be selected are reviewed. Models may be selected to provide submodels as input to other models; for further development and testing; or for immediate testing as forecasting tools. A plant process model may range in complexity from several dozen submodels simulating (1) energy, carbohydrates, and minerals; (2) change in biomass of various organs; and (3) initiation and development of plant organs, to a few submodels simulating key physiological processes. The most complex models cannot be used directly in large area forecasting but may provide submodels which can be simplified for inclusion into simpler plant process models. Both published and unpublished models which may be used for development or testing are reviewed. Several other models, currently under development, may become available at a later date.

Results of a modeling workshop concerning economic and environmental trends and concomitant resource management issues in the Mobile Bay area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamilton, David B.; Andrews, Austin K.; Auble, Gregor T.; Ellison, Richard A.; Johnson, Richard A.; Roelle, James E.; Staley, Michael J.

1982-01-01

During the past decade, the southern regions of the U.S. have experienced rapid change which is expected to continue into the foreseeable future. Growth in population, industry, and resource development has been attributed to a variety of advantages such as an abundant and inexpensive labor force, a mild climate, and the availability of energy, water, land, and other natural resources. While this growth has many benefits for the region, it also creates the potential for increased air, water, and solid waste pollution, and modification of natural habitats. A workshop was convened to consider the Mobile Bay area as a site-specific case of growth and its environmental consequences in the southern region. The objectives of the modeling workshop were to: (1) identify major factors of economic development as they relate to growth in the area over the immediate and longer term; (2) identify major environmental and resource management issues associated with this expected growth; and (3) identify and characterize the complex interrelationships among economic and environmental factors. This report summarizes the activities and results of a modeling workshop concerning economic growth and concomitant resource management issues in the Mobile Bay area. The workshop was organized around construction of a simulation model representing the relationships between a series of actions and indicators identified by participants. The workshop model had five major components. An Industry Submodel generated scenarios of growth in several industrial and transportation sectors. A Human Population/Economy Submodel calculated human population and economic variables in response to employment opportunities. A Land Use/Air Quality Submodel tabulated changes in land use, shoreline use, and air quality. A Water Submodel calculated indicators of water quality and quantity for fresh surface water, ground water, and Mobile Bay based on discharge information provided by the Industry and Human Population/Economy Submodels. Finally, a Fish Submodel calculated indicators of habitat quality for finfish and shellfish, utilizing information on water quality and wetlands acreage. The workshop was successful in identifying many of the critical interrelations between components of the Mobile area system. Not all of those interactions, such as the feedback of air quality as a limitation on development, could be incorporated into the workshop model because of the model's broad spatial scale and because of uncertainties or data gaps. Thus, the value of the modeling workshop was in the areas outlines below, rather than in the predictive power of the initial model developed at the workshop. First, participants developed a holistic perspective on the interactions which will determine future economic and environmental trends within the Mobile Bay area. Potential environmental consequences and limitations to grown identified at the workshop included: shoreline and water access; water quality of Mobile Bay; finfish and shellfish habitat quality with respect to dissolved oxygen and coliforms; air quality; and acreage of critical wetland habitat. Second, the model's requirements for specific, quantitative information stimulated supporting analyses, such as economic input-output calculations, which provide additional insight into the Mobile Bay area system. Third, the perspective of the Mobile area as an interacting system was developed in an open, cooperative forum which my provide a foundation for conflict resolution based on common understanding. Finally, the identification of model limitations and uncertainties should be useful in guiding the efficient allocation of future research effort.

Performance Impact of Deflagration to Detonation Transition Enhancing Obstacles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paxson, Daniel E.; Schauer, Frederick; Hopper, David

2012-01-01

A sub-model is developed to account for the drag and heat transfer enhancement resulting from deflagration-to-detonation (DDT) inducing obstacles commonly used in pulse detonation engines (PDE). The sub-model is incorporated as a source term in a time-accurate, quasi-onedimensional, CFD-based PDE simulation. The simulation and sub-model are then validated through comparison with a particular experiment in which limited DDT obstacle parameters were varied. The simulation is then used to examine the relative contributions from drag and heat transfer to the reduced thrust which is observed. It is found that heat transfer is far more significant than aerodynamic drag in this particular experiment.

Distance measurement based on light field geometry and ray tracing.

PubMed

Chen, Yanqin; Jin, Xin; Dai, Qionghai

2017-01-09

In this paper, we propose a geometric optical model to measure the distances of object planes in a light field image. The proposed geometric optical model is composed of two sub-models based on ray tracing: object space model and image space model. The two theoretic sub-models are derived on account of on-axis point light sources. In object space model, light rays propagate into the main lens and refract inside it following the refraction theorem. In image space model, light rays exit from emission positions on the main lens and subsequently impinge on the image sensor with different imaging diameters. The relationships between imaging diameters of objects and their corresponding emission positions on the main lens are investigated through utilizing refocusing and similar triangle principle. By combining the two sub-models together and tracing light rays back to the object space, the relationships between objects' imaging diameters and corresponding distances of object planes are figured out. The performance of the proposed geometric optical model is compared with existing approaches using different configurations of hand-held plenoptic 1.0 cameras and real experiments are conducted using a preliminary imaging system. Results demonstrate that the proposed model can outperform existing approaches in terms of accuracy and exhibits good performance at general imaging range.

A generic model for estimating biomass accumulation and greenhouse gas emissions from perennial crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ledo, Alicia; Heathcote, Richard; Hastings, Astley; Smith, Pete; Hillier, Jonathan

2017-04-01

Agriculture is essential to maintain humankind but is, at the same time, a substantial emitter of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. With a rising global population, the need for agriculture to provide secure food and energy supply is one of the main human challenges. At the same time, it is the only sector which has significant potential for negative emissions through the sequestration of carbon and offsetting via supply of feedstock for energy production. Perennial crops accumulate carbon during their lifetime and enhance organic soil carbon increase via root senescence and decomposition. However, inconsistency in accounting for this stored biomass undermines efforts to assess the benefits of such cropping systems when applied at scale. A consequence of this exclusion is that efforts to manage this important carbon stock are neglected. Detailed information on carbon balance is crucial to identify the main processes responsible for greenhouse gas emissions in order to develop strategic mitigation programs. Perennial crops systems represent 30% in area of total global crop systems, a considerable amount to be ignored. Furthermore, they have a major standing both in the bioenergy and global food industries. In this study, we first present a generic model to calculate the carbon balance and GHGs emissions from perennial crops, covering both food and bioenergy crops. The model is composed of two simple process-based sub-models, to cover perennial grasses and other perennial woody plants. The first is a generic individual based sub-model (IBM) covering crops in which the yield is the fruit and the plant biomass is an unharvested residue. Trees, shrubs and climbers fall into this category. The second model is a generic area based sub-model (ABM) covering perennial grasses, in which the harvested part includes some of the plant parts in which the carbon storage is accounted. Most second generation perennial bioenergy crops fall into this category. Both generic sub-models presented in this paper can be parametrized for different crops. Quantifying CO2 capture by plants and biomass accumulation and changes in soil carbon, are key in evaluating the impacts of perennial crops in life cycle analysis. We then use this model to illustrate the importance of biomass in the overall GHG estimation from four important perennial crops - sugarcane, Miscanthus, coffee, and apples - which were chosen to cover tropical and temperate regions, trees and grasses, and energy and food supply.

The potential influence of multiple scattering on longwave flux and heating rate simulations with clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, C. P.; Yang, P.; Huang, X.; Feldman, D.; Flanner, M.; Kuo, C.; Mlawer, E. J.

2017-12-01

Clouds, which cover approximately 67% of the globe, serve as one of the major modulators in adjusting radiative energy on the Earth. Since rigorous radiative transfer computations including multiple scattering are costly, only absorption is considered in the longwave spectral bands in the radiation sub-models of the general circulation models (GCMs). Quantification of the effect of ignoring longwave scattering for flux and heating rate simulations is performed by using the GCM version of the Longwave Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTMG_LW) with an implementation with the 16-stream Discrete Ordinates Radiative Transfer (DISORT) Program for a Multi-Layered Plane-Parallel Medium in conjunction with the 2010 CCCM products that merge satellite observations from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO), the CloudSat, the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS). One-year global simulations show that neglecting longwave scattering overestimates upward flux at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and underestimates downward flux at the surface by approximately 2.63 and 1.15 W/m2, respectively. Furthermore, when longwave scattering is included in the simulations, the tropopause is cooled by approximately 0.018 K/day and the surface is heated by approximately 0.028 K/day. As a result, the radiative effects of ignoring longwave scattering and doubling CO2 are comparable in magnitude.

Short-Term Forecasting of Radiation Belt and Ring Current

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fok, Mei-Ching

2007-01-01

A computer program implements a mathematical model of the radiation-belt and ring-current plasmas resulting from interactions between the solar wind and the Earth s magnetic field, for the purpose of predicting fluxes of energetic electrons (10 keV to 5 MeV) and protons (10 keV to 1 MeV), which are hazardous to humans and spacecraft. Given solar-wind and interplanetary-magnetic-field data as inputs, the program solves the convection-diffusion equations of plasma distribution functions in the range of 2 to 10 Earth radii. Phenomena represented in the model include particle drifts resulting from the gradient and curvature of the magnetic field; electric fields associated with the rotation of the Earth, convection, and temporal variation of the magnetic field; and losses along particle-drift paths. The model can readily accommodate new magnetic- and electric-field submodels and new information regarding physical processes that drive the radiation-belt and ring-current plasmas. Despite the complexity of the model, the program can be run in real time on ordinary computers. At present, the program can calculate present electron and proton fluxes; after further development, it should be able to predict the fluxes 24 hours in advance

Creating Security System Models Using SNAP-PC.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-05-01

Submodel ATTGRD Prompts ............ 228 x ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS SNAP was originally developed in the late 1970’s by Pritsker & Associates, Inc., for Sandia...systems. The other was to simplify the simulation process so that a person knowledgeable in security planning and who had little experience in ...simulation techniques could use simulation in his evaluation of security systems. SNAP-PC was developed by Pritsker & Associates, Inc., for Sandia with

Towards a complete physically based forecast model for underwater noise related to impact pile driving.

PubMed

Fricke, Moritz B; Rolfes, Raimund

2015-03-01

An approach for the prediction of underwater noise caused by impact pile driving is described and validated based on in situ measurements. The model is divided into three sub-models. The first sub-model, based on the finite element method, is used to describe the vibration of the pile and the resulting acoustic radiation into the surrounding water and soil column. The mechanical excitation of the pile by the piling hammer is estimated by the second sub-model using an analytical approach which takes the large vertical dimension of the ram into account. The third sub-model is based on the split-step Padé solution of the parabolic equation and targets the long-range propagation up to 20 km. In order to presume realistic environmental properties for the validation, a geoacoustic model is derived from spatially averaged geological information about the investigation area. Although it can be concluded from the validation that the model and the underlying assumptions are appropriate, there are some deviations between modeled and measured results. Possible explanations for the observed errors are discussed.

Evaluation of a hybrid kinetics/mixing-controlled combustion model for turbulent premixed and diffusion combustion using KIVA-II

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, H. Lee; Wey, Ming-Jyh

1990-01-01

Two-dimensional calculations were made of spark ignited premixed-charge combustion and direct injection stratified-charge combustion in gasoline fueled piston engines. Results are obtained using kinetic-controlled combustion submodel governed by a four-step global chemical reaction or a hybrid laminar kinetics/mixing-controlled combustion submodel that accounts for laminar kinetics and turbulent mixing effects. The numerical solutions are obtained by using KIVA-2 computer code which uses a kinetic-controlled combustion submodel governed by a four-step global chemical reaction (i.e., it assumes that the mixing time is smaller than the chemistry). A hybrid laminar/mixing-controlled combustion submodel was implemented into KIVA-2. In this model, chemical species approach their thermodynamics equilibrium with a rate that is a combination of the turbulent-mixing time and the chemical-kinetics time. The combination is formed in such a way that the longer of the two times has more influence on the conversion rate and the energy release. An additional element of the model is that the laminar-flame kinetics strongly influence the early flame development following ignition.

Evaluation of a hybrid kinetics/mixing-controlled combustion model for turbulent premixed and diffusion combustion using KIVA-2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, H. Lee; Wey, Ming-Jyh

1990-01-01

Two dimensional calculations were made of spark ignited premixed-charge combustion and direct injection stratified-charge combustion in gasoline fueled piston engines. Results are obtained using kinetic-controlled combustion submodel governed by a four-step global chemical reaction or a hybrid laminar kinetics/mixing-controlled combustion submodel that accounts for laminar kinetics and turbulent mixing effects. The numerical solutions are obtained by using KIVA-2 computer code which uses a kinetic-controlled combustion submodel governed by a four-step global chemical reaction (i.e., it assumes that the mixing time is smaller than the chemistry). A hybrid laminar/mixing-controlled combustion submodel was implemented into KIVA-2. In this model, chemical species approach their thermodynamics equilibrium with a rate that is a combination of the turbulent-mixing time and the chemical-kinetics time. The combination is formed in such a way that the longer of the two times has more influence on the conversion rate and the energy release. An additional element of the model is that the laminar-flame kinetics strongly influence the early flame development following ignition.

Comparative simulation of a fluidised bed reformer using industrial process simulators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bashiri, Hamed; Sotudeh-Gharebagh, Rahmat; Sarvar-Amini, Amin; Haghtalab, Ali; Mostoufi, Navid

2016-08-01

A simulation model is developed by commercial simulators in order to predict the performance of a fluidised bed reformer. As many physical and chemical phenomena take place in the reformer, two sub-models (hydrodynamic and reaction sub-models) are needed. The hydrodynamic sub-model is based on the dynamic two-phase model and the reaction sub-model is derived from the literature. In the overall model, the bed is divided into several sections. In each section, the flow of the gas is considered as plug flow through the bubble phase and perfectly mixed through the emulsion phase. Experimental data from the literature were used to validate the model. Close agreement was found between the model of both ASPEN Plus (ASPEN PLUS 2004 ©) and HYSYS (ASPEN HYSYS 2004 ©) and the experimental data using various sectioning of the reactor ranged from one to four. The experimental conversion lies between one and four sections as expected. The model proposed in this work can be used as a framework in developing the complicated models for non-ideal reactors inside of the process simulators.

FEAST: sensitive local alignment with multiple rates of evolution.

PubMed

Hudek, Alexander K; Brown, Daniel G

2011-01-01

We present a pairwise local aligner, FEAST, which uses two new techniques: a sensitive extension algorithm for identifying homologous subsequences, and a descriptive probabilistic alignment model. We also present a new procedure for training alignment parameters and apply it to the human and mouse genomes, producing a better parameter set for these sequences. Our extension algorithm identifies homologous subsequences by considering all evolutionary histories. It has higher maximum sensitivity than Viterbi extensions, and better balances specificity. We model alignments with several submodels, each with unique statistical properties, describing strongly similar and weakly similar regions of homologous DNA. Training parameters using two submodels produces superior alignments, even when we align with only the parameters from the weaker submodel. Our extension algorithm combined with our new parameter set achieves sensitivity 0.59 on synthetic tests. In contrast, LASTZ with default settings achieves sensitivity 0.35 with the same false positive rate. Using the weak submodel as parameters for LASTZ increases its sensitivity to 0.59 with high error. FEAST is available at http://monod.uwaterloo.ca/feast/.

Accommodating permafrost in contaminant transport modeling, a preliminary approach to modify the TREECS modeling tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryder, J. L.; Dortch, M. S.; Johnson, B. E.

2017-12-01

Efforts are underway to adapt TREECS (Training Range Environmental Evaluation and Characterization System) for use in arctic or subarctic conditions where the extent and duration of snowpack and frozen ground may influence the development and concentration of contaminant plumes. TREECS is a multi-media model designed to aid facility managers in the long term stewardship of Army properties. TREECS includes sub-models for mass loading, soil, vadose zone, aquifer, and stream transport. Potential changes to the sub-models to improve the ability to model contaminant transport in areas with permafrost include accurately representing the dissolution of contaminants over a wider range of temperatures, estimating snow depth and ablation for both the hydrology and thermal conditions, determining ground freeze/thaw state and an average active layer depth, a more precise method to estimate a vertical transport time to a water table, and a soil interflow routine that adapts for permafrost condition. In this presentation we will show three sub-model comparisons 1) the use of the National Weather Service SNOW-17 model and the current TREECS snowmelt routines for input hydrology, 2) a Continuous Frozen Ground Index (CFGI) model and the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab model (GIPL 1.0) for determining active layer depth and summer season length, and 3) the use of HYDRUS-1D and the current TREECS vadose zone model for transport to the water table. The performance vs input needs, assumptions, and limitations of each approach, as well as the physical system uncertainties will also be discussed.

Constraints on global oceanic emissions of N2O from observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Suntharalingam, Parvadha; Le Quéré, Corinne

2018-04-01

We estimate the global ocean N2O flux to the atmosphere and its confidence interval using a statistical method based on model perturbation simulations and their fit to a database of ΔpN2O (n = 6136). We evaluate two submodels of N2O production. The first submodel splits N2O production into oxic and hypoxic pathways following previous publications. The second submodel explicitly represents the redox transformations of N that lead to N2O production (nitrification and hypoxic denitrification) and N2O consumption (suboxic denitrification), and is presented here for the first time. We perturb both submodels by modifying the key parameters of the N2O cycling pathways (nitrification rates; NH4+ uptake; N2O yields under oxic, hypoxic and suboxic conditions) and determine a set of optimal model parameters by minimisation of a cost function against four databases of N cycle observations. Our estimate of the global oceanic N2O flux resulting from this cost function minimisation derived from observed and model ΔpN2O concentrations is 2.4 ± 0.8 and 2.5 ± 0.8 Tg N yr-1 for the two N2O submodels. These estimates suggest that the currently available observational data of surface ΔpN2O constrain the global N2O flux to a narrower range relative to the large range of results presented in the latest IPCC report.

Multiscale simulation of a prescribed fire event in the New Jersey Pine Barrens using ARPS-CANOPY

Treesearch

Michael T. Kiefer; Warren E. Heilman; Shiyuan Zhong; Joseph J. Charney; Xindi Bian; Nicholas S. Skowronski; John L. Hom; Kenneth L. Clark; Matthew Patterson; Michael R. Gallagher

2014-01-01

Smoke prediction products are one of the tools used by land management personnel for decision making regarding prescribed fires. This study documents the application to a prescribed fire of a smoke prediction system that employs ARPS-CANOPY, a modified version of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) model containing a canopy submodel, as the meteorological...

DAYCENT AND ITS LAND SURFACE SUBMODEL: DESCRIPTION AND TESTING. (R824993)

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract

A land surface submodel was developed for the daily version of the CENTURY ecosystem model (DAYCENT). The goal of DAYCENT to simulate soil N₂O, NO_x, and CH₄ fluxes for terrestrial ecosystems determined the structure and ...

Aerospace applications of SINDA/FLUINT at the Johnson Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ewert, Michael K.; Bellmore, Phillip E.; Andish, Kambiz K.; Keller, John R.

1992-01-01

SINDA/FLUINT has been found to be a versatile code for modeling aerospace systems involving single or two-phase fluid flow and all modes of heat transfer. Several applications of SINDA/FLUINT are described in this paper. SINDA/FLUINT is being used extensively to model the single phase water loops and the two-phase ammonia loops of the Space Station Freedom active thermal control system (ATCS). These models range from large integrated system models with multiple submodels to very detailed subsystem models. An integrated Space Station ATCS model has been created with ten submodels representing five water loops, three ammonia loops, a Freon loop and a thermal submodel representing the air loop. The model, which has approximately 800 FLUINT lumps and 300 thermal nodes, is used to determine the interaction between the multiple fluid loops which comprise the Space Station ATCS. Several detailed models of the flow-through radiator subsystem of the Space Station ATCS have been developed. One model, which has approximately 70 FLUINT lumps and 340 thermal nodes, provides a representation of the ATCS low temperature radiator array with two fluid loops connected only by conduction through the radiator face sheet. The detailed models are used to determine parameters such as radiator fluid return temperature, fin efficiency, flow distribution and total heat rejection for the baseline design as well as proposed alternate designs. SINDA/FLUINT has also been used as a design tool for several systems using pressurized gasses. One model examined the pressurization and depressurization of the Space Station airlock under a variety of operating conditions including convection with the side walls and internal cooling. Another model predicted the performance of a new generation of manned maneuvering units. This model included high pressure gas depressurization, internal heat transfer and supersonic thruster equations. The results of both models were used to size components, such as the heaters and gas bottles and also to point to areas where hardware testing was needed.

COST MODEL FOR LARGE URBAN SCHOOLS.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'BRIEN, RICHARD J.

THIS DOCUMENT CONTAINS A COST SUBMODEL OF AN URBAN EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM. THIS MODEL REQUIRES THAT PUPIL POPULATION AND PROPOSED SCHOOL BUILDING ARE KNOWN. THE COST ELEMENTS ARE--(1) CONSTRUCTION COSTS OF NEW PLANTS, (2) ACQUISITION AND DEVELOPMENT COSTS OF BUILDING SITES, (3) CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES OF THE PROPOSED SCHOOL, (4) PUPIL…

A Liver-Centric Multiscale Modeling Framework for Xenobiotics.

PubMed

Sluka, James P; Fu, Xiao; Swat, Maciej; Belmonte, Julio M; Cosmanescu, Alin; Clendenon, Sherry G; Wambaugh, John F; Glazier, James A

2016-01-01

We describe a multi-scale, liver-centric in silico modeling framework for acetaminophen pharmacology and metabolism. We focus on a computational model to characterize whole body uptake and clearance, liver transport and phase I and phase II metabolism. We do this by incorporating sub-models that span three scales; Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling of acetaminophen uptake and distribution at the whole body level, cell and blood flow modeling at the tissue/organ level and metabolism at the sub-cellular level. We have used standard modeling modalities at each of the three scales. In particular, we have used the Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) to create both the whole-body and sub-cellular scales. Our modeling approach allows us to run the individual sub-models separately and allows us to easily exchange models at a particular scale without the need to extensively rework the sub-models at other scales. In addition, the use of SBML greatly facilitates the inclusion of biological annotations directly in the model code. The model was calibrated using human in vivo data for acetaminophen and its sulfate and glucuronate metabolites. We then carried out extensive parameter sensitivity studies including the pairwise interaction of parameters. We also simulated population variation of exposure and sensitivity to acetaminophen. Our modeling framework can be extended to the prediction of liver toxicity following acetaminophen overdose, or used as a general purpose pharmacokinetic model for xenobiotics.

A Liver-Centric Multiscale Modeling Framework for Xenobiotics

PubMed Central

Swat, Maciej; Cosmanescu, Alin; Clendenon, Sherry G.; Wambaugh, John F.; Glazier, James A.

2016-01-01

We describe a multi-scale, liver-centric in silico modeling framework for acetaminophen pharmacology and metabolism. We focus on a computational model to characterize whole body uptake and clearance, liver transport and phase I and phase II metabolism. We do this by incorporating sub-models that span three scales; Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling of acetaminophen uptake and distribution at the whole body level, cell and blood flow modeling at the tissue/organ level and metabolism at the sub-cellular level. We have used standard modeling modalities at each of the three scales. In particular, we have used the Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) to create both the whole-body and sub-cellular scales. Our modeling approach allows us to run the individual sub-models separately and allows us to easily exchange models at a particular scale without the need to extensively rework the sub-models at other scales. In addition, the use of SBML greatly facilitates the inclusion of biological annotations directly in the model code. The model was calibrated using human in vivo data for acetaminophen and its sulfate and glucuronate metabolites. We then carried out extensive parameter sensitivity studies including the pairwise interaction of parameters. We also simulated population variation of exposure and sensitivity to acetaminophen. Our modeling framework can be extended to the prediction of liver toxicity following acetaminophen overdose, or used as a general purpose pharmacokinetic model for xenobiotics. PMID:27636091

A spatial simulation model of hydrology and vegetation dynamics in semi-permanent prairie wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poiani, Karen A.; Johnson, W. Carter

1993-01-01

The objective of this study was to construct a spatial simulation model of the vegetation dynamics in semi-permanent prairie wetlands. A hydrologic submodel estimated water levels based on precipitation, runoff, and potential evapotranspiration. A vegetation submodel calculated the amount and distribution of emergent cover and open water using a geographic information system. The response of vegetation to water-level changes was based on seed bank composition, seedling recruitment and establishment, and plant survivorship. The model was developed and tested using data from the Cottonwood Lake study site in North Dakota. Data from semi-permanent wetland P1 were used to calibrate the model. Data from a second wetland, P4, were used to evaluate model performance. Simulation results were compared with actual water data from 1797 through 1989. Test results showed that differences between calculated and observed water levels were within 10 cm 75% of the time. Open water over the past decade ranged from 0 to 7% in wetland P4 and from 0 to 8% in submodel simulations. Several model parameters including evapotranspiration and timing of seedling germination could be improved with more complex techniques or relatively minor adjustments. Despite these differences the model adequately represented vegetation dynamics of prairie wetlands and can be used to examine wetland response to natural or human-induced climate change.

Demographic, social, and economic effects on Mexican causes of death in 1990.

PubMed

Pick, J B; Butler, E W

1998-01-01

This study examined spatial geographic patterns of cause of death and 28 demographic and socioeconomic influences on causes of death for 31 Mexican states plus the Federal District for 1990. Mortality data were obtained from the state death registration system and are age standardized. The 28 socioeconomic variables were obtained from Census records. Analysis included 2 submodels: one with all 28 socioeconomic variables in a stepwise regression, and one with each of the 4 groups of factors. The conceptual model is based on epidemiological transition theory and empirical findings. There are 4 stages in mortality decline. Effects are grouped as demographic, sociocultural, economic prosperity, and housing, health, and crime factors. Findings indicate that cancer and cardiovascular disease were strongly correlated and consistently high in border areas as well as the Federal District and Jalisco. Respiratory mortality had higher values in the Federal District, Puebla, and surrounding states, as well as Jalisco. The standardized total mortality rate was only in simple correlations associated inversely with underemployment. All cause specific mortality was associated with individual factors. Respiratory mortality was linked with manufacturing work force. Cardiovascular and cancer mortality were associated with socioeconomic factors. In submodel I, cause specific mortality was predicted by crowding, housing characteristics, marriage and divorce, and manufacturing work force. In submodel II, economic group factors had the strongest model fits explaining 33-60% of the "r" square. Hypothesized effects were only partially validated.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Glaser, D.; Connolly, J.; Berghoffen, A.

The resident bald eagles of the lower Columbia River have lower productivity and higher contaminant levels than other bald eagles of the Pacific Northwest. The primary population stressors are believed to be habitat loss, human disturbance, p,p{prime}DDE, PCBs, dioxins and furans. The primary effect of habitat loss is to reduce the carrying capacity of the region for nesting sites, and the primary effects of human disturbance and contamination by organic compounds are to reduce productivity. The purpose of this study was to quantitatively evaluate the effects of all of, these potential stressors on the bald eagle population dynamics. A modelmore » of the population dynamics was developed. The model structure includes a physiologically-based toxicokinetic (PBTK) submodel to estimate the degree of contamination, which is linked via a toxicology submodel to a population dynamics submodel. The PBTK submodel is time-variable, incorporating species-specific bioenergetics, as well as contaminant assimilation and excretion rates for each compound of interest. Calculated body burdens and egg concentrations for each compound account for spatial and temporal variations in feeding habits and prey contaminant levels. The population submodel includes fecundity and survival information, as well as a limit to the number of breeding pairs (carrying capacity) and a population of non-breeding subadults and adults (floaters). Model simulations are performed in a Monte Carlo framework. Results include estimates of the persistence, resistance and resilience of the population: the probability of extinction, the relationship between magnitude of stress and change in population size, and the time course of recovery of a population following a reduction in stress.« less

Design and model for the giant magnetostrictive actuator used on an electronic controlled injector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Guangming; Zhang, Peilin; He, Zhongbo; Li, Ben; Rong, Ce

2017-05-01

Giant magnetostrictive actuator (GMA) may be a promising candidate actuator to drive an electronic controlled injector as giant magnetostrictive material (GMM) has excellent performances as large output, fast response and high operating stability etc. To meet the driving requirement of the injector, the GMA should produce maximal shortening displacement when energized. An unbiased GMA with a ‘T’ shaped output rod is designed to reach the target. Furthermore, an open-hold-fall type driving voltage is exerted on the actuator coil to accelerate the response speed of the coil current. The actuator displacement is modeled from establishing the sub-models of coil current, magnetic field within GMM rod, magnetization and magnetostrictive strain sequentially. Two modifications are done to make the model more accurate. Firstly, consider the model fails to compute the transient-state response precisely, a dead-zone and delay links are embedded into the coil current sub-model. Secondly, as the magnetization and magnetostrictive strain sub-models just influence the change rule of the transient-state response the linear magnetostrictive strain-magnetic field sub-model is introduced. From experimental results, the modified model with linear magnetostrictive stain expression can predict the actuator displacement quite effectively.

Combined electrochemical, heat generation, and thermal model for large prismatic lithium-ion batteries in real-time applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farag, Mohammed; Sweity, Haitham; Fleckenstein, Matthias; Habibi, Saeid

2017-08-01

Real-time prediction of the battery's core temperature and terminal voltage is very crucial for an accurate battery management system. In this paper, a combined electrochemical, heat generation, and thermal model is developed for large prismatic cells. The proposed model consists of three sub-models, an electrochemical model, heat generation model, and thermal model which are coupled together in an iterative fashion through physicochemical temperature dependent parameters. The proposed parameterization cycles identify the sub-models' parameters separately by exciting the battery under isothermal and non-isothermal operating conditions. The proposed combined model structure shows accurate terminal voltage and core temperature prediction at various operating conditions while maintaining a simple mathematical structure, making it ideal for real-time BMS applications. Finally, the model is validated against both isothermal and non-isothermal drive cycles, covering a broad range of C-rates, and temperature ranges [-25 °C to 45 °C].

Modelling Per Capita Water Demand Change to Support System Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, M. E.; Islam, S.

2016-12-01

Water utilities have a number of levers to influence customer water usage. These include levers to proactively slow demand growth over time such as building and landscape codes as well as levers to decrease demands quickly in response to water stress including price increases, education campaigns, water restrictions, and incentive programs. Even actions aimed at short term reductions can result in long term water usage declines when substantial changes are made in water efficiency, as in incentives for fixture replacement or turf removal, or usage patterns such as permanent lawn watering restrictions. Demand change is therefore linked to hydrological conditions and to the effects of past management decisions - both typically included in water supply planning models. Yet, demand is typically incorporated exogenously using scenarios or endogenously using only price, though utilities also use rules and incentives issued in response to water stress and codes specifying standards for new construction to influence water usage. Explicitly including these policy levers in planning models enables concurrent testing of infrastructure and policy strategies and illuminates interactions between the two. The City of Las Vegas is used as a case study to develop and demonstrate this modeling approach. First, a statistical analysis of system data was employed to rule out alternate hypotheses of per capita demand decrease such as changes in population density and economic structure. Next, four demand sub-models were developed including one baseline model in which demand is a function of only price. The sub-models were then calibrated and tested using monthly data from 1997 to 2012. Finally, the best performing sub-model was integrated with a full supply and demand model. The results highlight the importance of both modeling water demand dynamics endogenously and taking a broader view of the variables influencing demand change.

Performance of the SWEEP model affected by estimates of threshold friction velocity

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) is a process-based model and needs to be verified under a broad range of climatic, soil, and management conditions. Occasional failure of the WEPS erosion submodel (Single-event Wind Erosion Evaluation Program or SWEEP) to simulate erosion in the Columbia Pl...

Comparison of measured and simulated friction velocity and threshold friction velocity using SWEEP

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) was developed by the USDA Agricultural Research Service as a tool to predict wind erosion and assess the influence of control practices on windblown soil loss. Occasional failure of the WEPS erosion submodel (SWEEP) to simulate erosion in the Columbia Platea...

Validation of SWEEP for contrasting agricultural land use types in the Tarim Basin

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In order to aid in identifying land management practices with the potential to control soil erosion, models such as the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) have been developed to assess soil erosion. The objective of this study was to test the performance of the WEPS erosion submodel (the Single-e...

How Good and Useful Are Air Pollution Models?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Environmental Science and Technology, 1973

1973-01-01

The Regional Air Pollution Study (RAPS) to be conducted in St. Louis, is the largest air monitoring program of the Environmental Protection Agency. A key segment will be the collection of a data base on which this system of mathematical models can be tested and upon which submodels can be validated. (BL)

Tidal Mixing Box Submodel for Tampa Bay: Calibration of Tidal Exchange Flows with the Parameter Estimation Tool (PEST)

EPA Science Inventory

In the mid-1990s the Tampa Bay Estuary Program proposed a nutrient reduction strategy focused on improving water clarity to promote seagrass expansion within Tampa Bay. A System Dynamics Model is being developed to evaluate spatially and temporally explicit impacts of nutrient r...

Nonlinear aeroacoustic characterization of Helmholtz resonators with a local-linear neuro-fuzzy network model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Förner, K.; Polifke, W.

2017-10-01

The nonlinear acoustic behavior of Helmholtz resonators is characterized by a data-based reduced-order model, which is obtained by a combination of high-resolution CFD simulation and system identification. It is shown that even in the nonlinear regime, a linear model is capable of describing the reflection behavior at a particular amplitude with quantitative accuracy. This observation motivates to choose a local-linear model structure for this study, which consists of a network of parallel linear submodels. A so-called fuzzy-neuron layer distributes the input signal over the linear submodels, depending on the root mean square of the particle velocity at the resonator surface. The resulting model structure is referred to as an local-linear neuro-fuzzy network. System identification techniques are used to estimate the free parameters of this model from training data. The training data are generated by CFD simulations of the resonator, with persistent acoustic excitation over a wide range of frequencies and sound pressure levels. The estimated nonlinear, reduced-order models show good agreement with CFD and experimental data over a wide range of amplitudes for several test cases.

Modeling biotic uptake by periphyton and transient hyporrheic storage of nitrate in a natural stream

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kim, Brian K.A.; Jackman, Alan P.; Triska, Frank J.

1992-01-01

To a convection-dispersion hydrologic transport model we coupled a transient storage submodel (Bencala, 1984) and a biotic uptake submodel based on Michaelis-Menten kinetics (Kim et al., 1990). Our purpose was threefold: (1) to simulate nitrate retention in response to change in load in a third-order stream, (2) to differentiate biotic versus hydrologie factors in nitrate retention, and (3) to produce a research tool whose properties are consistent with laboratory and field observations. Hydrodynamic parameters were fitted from chloride concentration during a 20-day chloride-nitrate coinjection (Bencala, 1984), and biotic uptake kinetics were based on flume studies by Kim et al. (1990) and Triska et al. (1983). Nitrate concentration from the 20-day coinjection experiment served as a base for model validation. The complete transport retention model reasonably predicted the observed nitrate concentration. However, simulations which lacked either the transient storage submodel or the biotic uptake submodel poorly predicted the observed nitrate concentration. Model simulations indicated that transient storage in channel and hyporrheic interstices dominated nitrate retention within the first 24 hours, whereas biotic uptake dominated thereafter. A sawtooth function for Vmax ranging from 0.10 to 0.17 μg NO3-N s−1 gAFDM−1 (grams ash free dry mass) slightly underpredicted nitrate retention in simulations of 2–7 days. This result was reasonable since uptake by other nitrate-demanding processes were not included. The model demonstrated how ecosystem retention is an interaction between physical and biotic processes and supports the validity of coupling separate hydrodynamic and reactive submodels to established solute transport models in biological studies of fluvial ecosystems.

Modelling the root system architecture of Poaceae. Can we simulate integrated traits from morphological parameters of growth and branching?

PubMed

Pagès, Loïc; Picon-Cochard, Catherine

2014-10-01

Our objective was to calibrate a model of the root system architecture on several Poaceae species and to assess its value to simulate several 'integrated' traits measured at the root system level: specific root length (SRL), maximum root depth and root mass. We used the model ArchiSimple, made up of sub-models that represent and combine the basic developmental processes, and an experiment on 13 perennial grassland Poaceae species grown in 1.5-m-deep containers and sampled at two different dates after planting (80 and 120 d). Model parameters were estimated almost independently using small samples of the root systems taken at both dates. The relationships obtained for calibration validated the sub-models, and showed species effects on the parameter values. The simulations of integrated traits were relatively correct for SRL and were good for root depth and root mass at the two dates. We obtained some systematic discrepancies that were related to the slight decline of root growth in the last period of the experiment. Because the model allowed correct predictions on a large set of Poaceae species without global fitting, we consider that it is a suitable tool for linking root traits at different organisation levels. © 2014 INRA. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

Dike/Drift Interactions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

E. Gaffiney

2004-11-23

This report presents and documents the model components and analyses that represent potential processes associated with propagation of a magma-filled crack (dike) migrating upward toward the surface, intersection of the dike with repository drifts, flow of magma in the drifts, and post-magma emplacement effects on repository performance. The processes that describe upward migration of a dike and magma flow down the drift are referred to as the dike intrusion submodel. The post-magma emplacement processes are referred to as the post-intrusion submodel. Collectively, these submodels are referred to as a conceptual model for dike/drift interaction. The model components and analyses ofmore » the dike/drift interaction conceptual model provide the technical basis for assessing the potential impacts of an igneous intrusion on repository performance, including those features, events, and processes (FEPs) related to dike/drift interaction (Section 6.1).« less

Cost-effectiveness of raising HDL cholesterol by adding prolonged-release nicotinic acid to statin therapy in the secondary prevention setting: a French perspective.

PubMed

Roze, S; Ferrières, J; Bruckert, E; Van Ganse, E; Chapman, M J; Liens, D; Renaudin, C

2007-11-01

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of raising high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) with add-on nicotinic acid in statin-treated patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) and low HDL-C, from the French healthcare system perspective. Computer simulation economic modelling incorporating two decision analytic submodels was used. The first submodel generated a cohort of 2000 patients and simulated lipid changes using baseline characteristics and treatment effects from the ARterial Biology for the Investigation of the Treatment Effects of Reducing cholesterol (ARBITER 2) study. Prolonged-release (PR) nicotinic acid (1 g/day) was added in patients with HDL-C < 40 mg/dl (1.03 mmol/l) on statin alone. The second submodel used standard Markov techniques to evaluate long-term clinical and economic outcomes based on Framingham risk estimates. Direct medical costs were accounted from a third party payer perspective [2004 Euros (euro)] and discounted by 3%. Addition of PR nicotinic acid to statin therapy resulted in substantial health gain and increased life expectancy, at a cost well within the threshold (< 50,000 euros per life year gained) considered good value for money in Western Europe. Raising HDL-C by adding PR nicotinic acid to statin therapy in CHD patients was cost-effective in France at a level considered to represent good value for money by reimbursement authorities in Europe. This strategy was highly cost-effective in CHD patients with type 2 diabetes.

Analysis of Composite Skin-Stiffener Debond Specimens Using a Shell/3D Modeling Technique and Submodeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

OBrien, T. Kevin (Technical Monitor); Krueger, Ronald; Minguet, Pierre J.

2004-01-01

The application of a shell/3D modeling technique for the simulation of skin/stringer debond in a specimen subjected to tension and three-point bending was studied. The global structure was modeled with shell elements. A local three-dimensional model, extending to about three specimen thicknesses on either side of the delamination front was used to model the details of the damaged section. Computed total strain energy release rates and mixed-mode ratios obtained from shell/3D simulations were in good agreement with results obtained from full solid models. The good correlation of the results demonstrated the effectiveness of the shell/3D modeling technique for the investigation of skin/stiffener separation due to delamination in the adherents. In addition, the application of the submodeling technique for the simulation of skin/stringer debond was also studied. Global models made of shell elements and solid elements were studied. Solid elements were used for local submodels, which extended between three and six specimen thicknesses on either side of the delamination front to model the details of the damaged section. Computed total strain energy release rates and mixed-mode ratios obtained from the simulations using the submodeling technique were not in agreement with results obtained from full solid models.

A hybrid system identification methodology for wireless structural health monitoring systems based on dynamic substructuring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dragos, Kosmas; Smarsly, Kay

2016-04-01

System identification has been employed in numerous structural health monitoring (SHM) applications. Traditional system identification methods usually rely on centralized processing of structural response data to extract information on structural parameters. However, in wireless SHM systems the centralized processing of structural response data introduces a significant communication bottleneck. Exploiting the merits of decentralization and on-board processing power of wireless SHM systems, many system identification methods have been successfully implemented in wireless sensor networks. While several system identification approaches for wireless SHM systems have been proposed, little attention has been paid to obtaining information on the physical parameters (e.g. stiffness, damping) of the monitored structure. This paper presents a hybrid system identification methodology suitable for wireless sensor networks based on the principles of component mode synthesis (dynamic substructuring). A numerical model of the monitored structure is embedded into the wireless sensor nodes in a distributed manner, i.e. the entire model is segmented into sub-models, each embedded into one sensor node corresponding to the substructure the sensor node is assigned to. The parameters of each sub-model are estimated by extracting local mode shapes and by applying the equations of the Craig-Bampton method on dynamic substructuring. The proposed methodology is validated in a laboratory test conducted on a four-story frame structure to demonstrate the ability of the methodology to yield accurate estimates of stiffness parameters. Finally, the test results are discussed and an outlook on future research directions is provided.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jardine, Kolby

In conjunction with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility GoAmazon campaign, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Science (TES)-funded Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon 2014/15) terrestrial ecosystem project (Geco) was designed to: • evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of leaf-level algorithms for biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) emissions in Amazon forests near Manaus, Brazil, and • conduct mechanistic field studies to characterize biochemical and physiological processes governing leaf- and landscape-scale tropical forest BVOC emissions, and the influence of environmental drivers that are expected to change with a warming climate. Through a close interaction between modeling and observationalmore » activities, including the training of MS and PhD graduate students, post-doctoral students, and technicians at the National Institute for Amazon Research (INPA), the study aimed at improving the representation of BVOC-mediated biosphere-atmosphere interactions and feedbacks under a warming climate. BVOCs can form cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) that influence precipitation dynamics and modify the quality of down welling radiation for photosynthesis. However, our ability to represent these coupled biosphere-atmosphere processes in Earth system models suffers from poor understanding of the functions, identities, quantities, and seasonal patterns of BVOC emissions from tropical forests as well as their biological and environmental controls. The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN), the current BVOC sub-model of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), was evaluated to explore mechanistic controls over BVOC emissions. Based on that analysis, a combination of observations and experiments were studied in forests near Manaus, Brazil, to test existing parameterizations and algorithm structures in MEGAN. The model was actively modified as needed to improve tropical BVOC emission simulations on a regional scale.« less

Examining responses of ecosystem carbon exchange to environmental changes using particle filtering mathod

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yokozawa, M.

2017-12-01

Attention has been paid to the agricultural field that could regulate ecosystem carbon exchange by water management and residual treatments. However, there have been less known about the dynamic responses of the ecosystem to environmental changes. In this study, focussing on paddy field, where CO2 emissions due to microbial decomposition of organic matter are suppressed and alternatively CH4 emitted under flooding condition during rice growth season and subsequently CO2 emission following the fallow season after harvest, the responses of ecosystem carbon exchange were examined. We conducted model data fusion analysis for examining the response of cropland-atmosphere carbon exchange to environmental variation. The used model consists of two sub models, paddy rice growth sub-model and soil decomposition sub-model. The crop growth sub-model mimics the rice plant growth processes including formation of reproductive organs as well as leaf expansion. The soil decomposition sub-model simulates the decomposition process of soil organic carbon. Assimilating the data on the time changes in CO2 flux measured by eddy covariance method, rice plant biomass, LAI and the final yield with the model, the parameters were calibrated using a stochastic optimization algorithm with a particle filter method. The particle filter method, which is one of the Monte Carlo filters, enable us to evaluating time changes in parameters based on the observed data until the time and to make prediction of the system. Iterative filtering and prediction with changing parameters and/or boundary condition enable us to obtain time changes in parameters governing the crop production as well as carbon exchange. In this study, we focused on the parameters related to crop production as well as soil carbon storage. As the results, the calibrated model with estimated parameters could accurately predict the NEE flux in the subsequent years. The temperature sensitivity, denoted by Q10s in the decomposition rate of soil organic carbon (SOC) were obtained as 1.4 for no cultivation period and 2.9 for cultivation period (submerged soil condition in flooding season). It suggests that the response of ecosystem carbon exchange differs due to SOC decomposition process which is sensitive to environmental variation during paddy rice cultivation period.

Validation and Calibration of Nuclear Thermal Hydraulics Multiscale Multiphysics Models - Subcooled Flow Boiling Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anh Bui; Nam Dinh; Brian Williams

In addition to validation data plan, development of advanced techniques for calibration and validation of complex multiscale, multiphysics nuclear reactor simulation codes are a main objective of the CASL VUQ plan. Advanced modeling of LWR systems normally involves a range of physico-chemical models describing multiple interacting phenomena, such as thermal hydraulics, reactor physics, coolant chemistry, etc., which occur over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. To a large extent, the accuracy of (and uncertainty in) overall model predictions is determined by the correctness of various sub-models, which are not conservation-laws based, but empirically derived from measurement data. Suchmore » sub-models normally require extensive calibration before the models can be applied to analysis of real reactor problems. This work demonstrates a case study of calibration of a common model of subcooled flow boiling, which is an important multiscale, multiphysics phenomenon in LWR thermal hydraulics. The calibration process is based on a new strategy of model-data integration, in which, all sub-models are simultaneously analyzed and calibrated using multiple sets of data of different types. Specifically, both data on large-scale distributions of void fraction and fluid temperature and data on small-scale physics of wall evaporation were simultaneously used in this work’s calibration. In a departure from traditional (or common-sense) practice of tuning/calibrating complex models, a modern calibration technique based on statistical modeling and Bayesian inference was employed, which allowed simultaneous calibration of multiple sub-models (and related parameters) using different datasets. Quality of data (relevancy, scalability, and uncertainty) could be taken into consideration in the calibration process. This work presents a step forward in the development and realization of the “CIPS Validation Data Plan” at the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of LWRs to enable quantitative assessment of the CASL modeling of Crud-Induced Power Shift (CIPS) phenomenon, in particular, and the CASL advanced predictive capabilities, in general. This report is prepared for the Department of Energy’s Consortium for Advanced Simulation of LWRs program’s VUQ Focus Area.« less

Modeling of larch forest dynamics under a changing climate in eastern Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakai, T.; Kumagai, T.; Iijima, Y.; Ohta, T.; Kotani, A.; Maximov, T. C.; Hiyama, T.

2017-12-01

According to the projection by an earth system model under RCP8.5 scenario, boreal forest in eastern Siberia (near Yakutsk) is predicted to experience significant changes in climate, in which the mean annual air temperature is projected to be positive and the annual precipitation will be doubled by the end of 21st century. Since the forest in this region is underlain by continuous permafrost, both increasing temperature and precipitation can affect the dynamics of forest through the soil water processes. To investigate such effects, we adopted a newly developed terrestrial ecosystem dynamics model named S-TEDy (SEIB-DGVM-originated Terrestrial Ecosystem Dynamics model), which mechanistically simulates "the way of life" of each individual tree and resulting tree mortality under the future climate conditions. This model was first developed for the simulation of the dynamics of a tropical rainforest in the Borneo Island, and successfully reproduced higher mortality of large trees due to a prolonged drought induced by ENSO event of 1997-1998. To apply this model to a larch forest in eastern Siberia, we are developing a soil submodel to consider the effect of thawing-freezing processes. We will present a simulation results using the future climate projection.

Modeling concentration patterns of agricultural and urban micropollutants in surface waters in catchment of mixed land use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stamm, C.; Scheidegger, R.; Bader, H. P.

2012-04-01

Organic micropollutants detected in surface waters can originate from agricultural and urban sources. Depending on the use of the compounds, the temporal loss patterns vary substantially. Therefore models that simulate water quality in watersheds of mixed land use have to account for all relevant sources. We present here simulation results of a transport model that describes the dynamic of several biocidal compounds as well as the behaviour of human pharmaceuticals. The model consists of the sub-model Rexpo simulating the transfer of the compounds from the point of application to the stream in semi-lumped manner. The river sub-model, which is programmed in the Aquasim software, describes the fate of the compounds in the stream. Both sub-models are process-based. The Rexpo sub-model was calibrated at the scale of a small catchment of 25 km2, which is inhabited by about 12'000 people. Based on the resulting model parameters the loss dynamics of two herbicides (atrazine, isoproturon) and a compound of mixed urban and agricultural use (diuron) were predicted for two nested catchment of 212 and 1696 km2, respectively. The model output was compared to observed time-series of concentrations and loads obtained for the entire year 2009. Additionally, the fate of two pharmaceuticals with constant input (carbamazepine, diclofenac) was simulated for improving the understanding of possible degradation processes. The simulated loads and concentrations of the biocidal compounds differed by a factor of 2 to 3 from the observations. In general, the seasonal patterns were well captured by the model. However, a detailed analysis of the seasonality revealed substantial input uncertainty for the application of the compounds. The model results also demonstrated that for the dynamics of rain-driven losses of biocidal compounds the semi-lumped approach of the Rexpo sub-model was sufficient. Only for simulating the photolytic degradation of diclofenac in the stream the detailed representation of the routing in the stream was essential. Overall, the study demonstrated that the simulation of micropollutants at the watershed scale can be strongly hampered by input uncertainty regarding the use of the chemicals. Under such conditions the level of process-representation in the Rexpo sub-models is superfluous. For practical applications, one should address the question how to simply the approach while still maintaining the essential parts.

Dynamics of melt crystal interface and thermal stresses in rotational Bridgman crystal growth process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Ronghui; Zhang, Hui; Larson, David J.; Mandal, Krishna C.

2004-05-01

The growth process of potassium bromide (KBr) single crystals in a vertical Bridgman furnace has been studied numerically using an integrated model that combines formulation of global heat transfer and thermal elastic stresses. The global heat transfer sub-model accounts for conduction, convection and interface movement in the multiphase system. Using the elastic stress sub-model, thermal stresses in the growing crystal caused by the non-uniform temperature distribution is predicted. Special attention is directed to the interaction between the crystal and the ampoule. The global temperature distribution in the furnace, the flow pattern in the melt and the interface shapes are presented. We also investigate the effects of the natural convection and rotational forced convection on the shape of the growth fronts. Furthermore, the state of the thermal stresses in the crystal is studied to understand the plastic deformation mechanisms during the cooling process. The influence of the wall contact on thermal stresses is also addressed.

Electro-thermo-optical simulation of vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smagley, Vladimir Anatolievich

Three-dimensional electro-thermal simulator based on the double-layer approximation for the active region was coupled to optical gain and optical field numerical simulators to provide a self-consistent steady-state solution of VCSEL current-voltage and current-output power characteristics. Methodology of VCSEL modeling had been established and applied to model a standard 850-nm VCSEL based on GaAs-active region and a novel intracavity-contacted 400-nm GaN-based VCSEL. Results of GaAs VCSEL simulation were in a good agreement with experiment. Correlations between current injection and radiative mode profiles have been observed. Physical sub-models of transport, optical gain and cavity optical field were developed. Carrier transport through DBRs was studied. Problem of optical fields in VCSEL cavity was treated numerically by the effective frequency method. All the sub-models were connected through spatially inhomogeneous rate equation system. It was shown that the conventional uncoupled analysis of every separate physical phenomenon would be insufficient to describe VCSEL operation.

Thermal Model Development for Ares I-X

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amundsen, Ruth M.; DelCorso, Joe

2008-01-01

Thermal analysis for the Ares I-X vehicle has involved extensive thermal model integration, since thermal models of vehicle elements came from several different NASA and industry organizations. Many valuable lessons were learned in terms of model integration and validation. Modeling practices such as submodel, analysis group and symbol naming were standardized to facilitate the later model integration. Upfront coordination of coordinate systems, timelines, units, symbols and case scenarios was very helpful in minimizing integration rework. A process for model integration was developed that included pre-integration runs and basic checks of both models, and a step-by-step process to efficiently integrate one model into another. Extensive use of model logic was used to create scenarios and timelines for avionics and air flow activation. Efficient methods of model restart between case scenarios were developed. Standardization of software version and even compiler version between organizations was found to be essential. An automated method for applying aeroheating to the full integrated vehicle model, including submodels developed by other organizations, was developed.

A global model for steady state and transient S.I. engine heat transfer studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bohac, S.V.; Assanis, D.N.; Baker, D.M.

1996-09-01

A global, systems-level model which characterizes the thermal behavior of internal combustion engines is described in this paper. Based on resistor-capacitor thermal networks, either steady-state or transient thermal simulations can be performed. A two-zone, quasi-dimensional spark-ignition engine simulation is used to determine in-cylinder gas temperature and convection coefficients. Engine heat fluxes and component temperatures can subsequently be predicted from specification of general engine dimensions, materials, and operating conditions. Emphasis has been placed on minimizing the number of model inputs and keeping them as simple as possible to make the model practical and useful as an early design tool. The successmore » of the global model depends on properly scaling the general engine inputs to accurately model engine heat flow paths across families of engine designs. The development and validation of suitable, scalable submodels is described in detail in this paper. Simulation sub-models and overall system predictions are validated with data from two spark ignition engines. Several sensitivity studies are performed to determine the most significant heat transfer paths within the engine and exhaust system. Overall, it has been shown that the model is a powerful tool in predicting steady-state heat rejection and component temperatures, as well as transient component temperatures.« less

Validation and Sensitivity Analysis of a New Atmosphere-Soil-Vegetation Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagai, Haruyasu

2002-02-01

This paper describes details, validation, and sensitivity analysis of a new atmosphere-soil-vegetation model. The model consists of one-dimensional multilayer submodels for atmosphere, soil, and vegetation and radiation schemes for the transmission of solar and longwave radiations in canopy. The atmosphere submodel solves prognostic equations for horizontal wind components, potential temperature, specific humidity, fog water, and turbulence statistics by using a second-order closure model. The soil submodel calculates the transport of heat, liquid water, and water vapor. The vegetation submodel evaluates the heat and water budget on leaf surface and the downward liquid water flux. The model performance was tested by using measured data of the Cooperative Atmosphere-Surface Exchange Study (CASES). Calculated ground surface fluxes were mainly compared with observations at a winter wheat field, concerning the diurnal variation and change in 32 days of the first CASES field program in 1997, CASES-97. The measured surface fluxes did not satisfy the energy balance, so sensible and latent heat fluxes obtained by the eddy correlation method were corrected. By using options of the solar radiation scheme, which addresses the effect of the direct solar radiation component, calculated albedo agreed well with the observations. Some sensitivity analyses were also done for model settings. Model calculations of surface fluxes and surface temperature were in good agreement with measurements as a whole.

SBML Level 3 package: Hierarchical Model Composition, Version 1 Release 3

PubMed Central

Smith, Lucian P.; Hucka, Michael; Hoops, Stefan; Finney, Andrew; Ginkel, Martin; Myers, Chris J.; Moraru, Ion; Liebermeister, Wolfram

2017-01-01

Summary Constructing a model in a hierarchical fashion is a natural approach to managing model complexity, and offers additional opportunities such as the potential to re-use model components. The SBML Level 3 Version 1 Core specification does not directly provide a mechanism for defining hierarchical models, but it does provide a mechanism for SBML packages to extend the Core specification and add additional syntactical constructs. The SBML Hierarchical Model Composition package for SBML Level 3 adds the necessary features to SBML to support hierarchical modeling. The package enables a modeler to include submodels within an enclosing SBML model, delete unneeded or redundant elements of that submodel, replace elements of that submodel with element of the containing model, and replace elements of the containing model with elements of the submodel. In addition, the package defines an optional “port” construct, allowing a model to be defined with suggested interfaces between hierarchical components; modelers can chose to use these interfaces, but they are not required to do so and can still interact directly with model elements if they so chose. Finally, the SBML Hierarchical Model Composition package is defined in such a way that a hierarchical model can be “flattened” to an equivalent, non-hierarchical version that uses only plain SBML constructs, thus enabling software tools that do not yet support hierarchy to nevertheless work with SBML hierarchical models. PMID:26528566

A COST-EFFECTIVENESS MODEL FOR THE ANALYSIS OF TITLE I ESEA PROJECT PROPOSALS, PART I-VII.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

ABT, CLARK C.

SEVEN SEPARATE REPORTS DESCRIBE AN OVERVIEW OF A COST-EFFECTIVENESS MODEL AND FIVE SUBMODELS FOR EVALUATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY ACT TITLE I PROPOSALS. THE DESIGN FOR THE MODEL ATTEMPTS A QUANTITATIVE DESCRIPTION OF EDUCATION SYSTEMS WHICH MAY BE PROGRAMED AS A COMPUTER SIMULATION TO INDICATE THE IMPACT OF A TITLE I…

Model behavior and sensitivity in an application of the cohesive bed component of the community sediment transport modeling system for the York River estuary, VA, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fall, Kelsey A.; Harris, Courtney K.; Friedrichs, Carl T.; Rinehimer, J. Paul; Sherwood, Christopher R.

2014-01-01

The Community Sediment Transport Modeling System (CSTMS) cohesive bed sub-model that accounts for erosion, deposition, consolidation, and swelling was implemented in a three-dimensional domain to represent the York River estuary, Virginia. The objectives of this paper are to (1) describe the application of the three-dimensional hydrodynamic York Cohesive Bed Model, (2) compare calculations to observations, and (3) investigate sensitivities of the cohesive bed sub-model to user-defined parameters. Model results for summer 2007 showed good agreement with tidal-phase averaged estimates of sediment concentration, bed stress, and current velocity derived from Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter (ADV) field measurements. An important step in implementing the cohesive bed model was specification of both the initial and equilibrium critical shear stress profiles, in addition to choosing other parameters like the consolidation and swelling timescales. This model promises to be a useful tool for investigating the fundamental controls on bed erodibility and settling velocity in the York River, a classical muddy estuary, provided that appropriate data exists to inform the choice of model parameters.

An advanced method of contributing emissions to short-lived chemical species (OH and HO2): the TAGGING 1.1 submodel based on the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy 2.53)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieger, Vanessa S.; Mertens, Mariano; Grewe, Volker

2018-06-01

To mitigate the human impact on climate change, it is essential to determine the contribution of emissions to the concentration of trace gases. In particular, the source attribution of short-lived species such as OH and HO2 is important as they play a crucial role for atmospheric chemistry. This study presents an advanced version of a tagging method for OH and HO2 (HOx) which attributes HOx concentrations to emissions. While the former version (V1.0) only considered 12 reactions in the troposphere, the new version (V1.1), presented here, takes 19 reactions in the troposphere into account. For the first time, the main chemical reactions for the HOx chemistry in the stratosphere are also regarded (in total 27 reactions). To fully take into account the main HO2 source by the reaction of H and O2, the tagging of the H radical is introduced. In order to ensure the steady-state assumption, we introduce rest terms which balance the deviation of HOx production and loss. This closes the budget between the sum of all contributions and the total concentration. The contributions to OH and HO2 obtained by the advanced tagging method V1.1 deviate from V1.0 in certain source categories. For OH, major changes are found in the categories biomass burning, biogenic emissions and methane decomposition. For HO2, the contributions differ strongly in the categories biogenic emissions and methane decomposition. As HOx reacts with ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO), reactive nitrogen compounds (NOy), non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) and peroxyacyl nitrates (PAN), the contributions to these species are also modified by the advanced HOx tagging method V1.1. The contributions to NOy, NMHC and PAN show only little change, whereas O3 from biogenic emissions and methane decomposition increases in the tropical troposphere. Variations for CO from biogenic emissions and biomass burning are only found in the Southern Hemisphere.

System-Wide Water Resources Program Nutrient Sub-Model (SWWRP-NSM) Version 1.1

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-01

species including crops, native grasses, and trees . The process descriptions utilize a single plant growth model to simulate all types of land covers...characteristics: • Multi- species , multi-phase, and multi-reaction system • Fast (equilibrium-based) and slow (non-equilibrium-based or rate- based...Transformation and loading of N and P species in the overland flow • Simulation of the N and P cycle in the water column (both overland and

Distributed Prognostics based on Structural Model Decomposition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew J.; Bregon, Anibal; Roychoudhury, I.

2014-01-01

Within systems health management, prognostics focuses on predicting the remaining useful life of a system. In the model-based prognostics paradigm, physics-based models are constructed that describe the operation of a system and how it fails. Such approaches consist of an estimation phase, in which the health state of the system is first identified, and a prediction phase, in which the health state is projected forward in time to determine the end of life. Centralized solutions to these problems are often computationally expensive, do not scale well as the size of the system grows, and introduce a single point of failure. In this paper, we propose a novel distributed model-based prognostics scheme that formally describes how to decompose both the estimation and prediction problems into independent local subproblems whose solutions may be easily composed into a global solution. The decomposition of the prognostics problem is achieved through structural decomposition of the underlying models. The decomposition algorithm creates from the global system model a set of local submodels suitable for prognostics. Independent local estimation and prediction problems are formed based on these local submodels, resulting in a scalable distributed prognostics approach that allows the local subproblems to be solved in parallel, thus offering increases in computational efficiency. Using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we perform a number of simulation-based experiments to demonstrate the distributed approach, compare the performance with a centralized approach, and establish its scalability. Index Terms-model-based prognostics, distributed prognostics, structural model decomposition ABBREVIATIONS

Oscillons in a perturbed signum-Gordon model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klimas, P.; Streibel, J. S.; Wereszczynski, A.; Zakrzewski, W. J.

2018-04-01

We study various properties of a perturbed signum-Gordon model, which has been obtained through the dimensional reduction of the called `first BPS submodel of the Skyrme model'. This study is motivated by the observation that the first BPS submodel of the Skyrme model may be partially responsible for the good qualities of the rational map ansatz approximation to the solutions of the Skyrme model. We investigate the existence, stability and various properties of oscillons and other time-dependent states in this perturbed signum-Gordon model.

A mixture of sparse coding models explaining properties of face neurons related to holistic and parts-based processing

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Experimental studies have revealed evidence of both parts-based and holistic representations of objects and faces in the primate visual system. However, it is still a mystery how such seemingly contradictory types of processing can coexist within a single system. Here, we propose a novel theory called mixture of sparse coding models, inspired by the formation of category-specific subregions in the inferotemporal (IT) cortex. We developed a hierarchical network that constructed a mixture of two sparse coding submodels on top of a simple Gabor analysis. The submodels were each trained with face or non-face object images, which resulted in separate representations of facial parts and object parts. Importantly, evoked neural activities were modeled by Bayesian inference, which had a top-down explaining-away effect that enabled recognition of an individual part to depend strongly on the category of the whole input. We show that this explaining-away effect was indeed crucial for the units in the face submodel to exhibit significant selectivity to face images over object images in a similar way to actual face-selective neurons in the macaque IT cortex. Furthermore, the model explained, qualitatively and quantitatively, several tuning properties to facial features found in the middle patch of face processing in IT as documented by Freiwald, Tsao, and Livingstone (2009). These included, in particular, tuning to only a small number of facial features that were often related to geometrically large parts like face outline and hair, preference and anti-preference of extreme facial features (e.g., very large/small inter-eye distance), and reduction of the gain of feature tuning for partial face stimuli compared to whole face stimuli. Thus, we hypothesize that the coding principle of facial features in the middle patch of face processing in the macaque IT cortex may be closely related to mixture of sparse coding models. PMID:28742816

A mixture of sparse coding models explaining properties of face neurons related to holistic and parts-based processing.

PubMed

Hosoya, Haruo; Hyvärinen, Aapo

2017-07-01

Experimental studies have revealed evidence of both parts-based and holistic representations of objects and faces in the primate visual system. However, it is still a mystery how such seemingly contradictory types of processing can coexist within a single system. Here, we propose a novel theory called mixture of sparse coding models, inspired by the formation of category-specific subregions in the inferotemporal (IT) cortex. We developed a hierarchical network that constructed a mixture of two sparse coding submodels on top of a simple Gabor analysis. The submodels were each trained with face or non-face object images, which resulted in separate representations of facial parts and object parts. Importantly, evoked neural activities were modeled by Bayesian inference, which had a top-down explaining-away effect that enabled recognition of an individual part to depend strongly on the category of the whole input. We show that this explaining-away effect was indeed crucial for the units in the face submodel to exhibit significant selectivity to face images over object images in a similar way to actual face-selective neurons in the macaque IT cortex. Furthermore, the model explained, qualitatively and quantitatively, several tuning properties to facial features found in the middle patch of face processing in IT as documented by Freiwald, Tsao, and Livingstone (2009). These included, in particular, tuning to only a small number of facial features that were often related to geometrically large parts like face outline and hair, preference and anti-preference of extreme facial features (e.g., very large/small inter-eye distance), and reduction of the gain of feature tuning for partial face stimuli compared to whole face stimuli. Thus, we hypothesize that the coding principle of facial features in the middle patch of face processing in the macaque IT cortex may be closely related to mixture of sparse coding models.

Spring hydrograph simulation of karstic aquifers: Impacts of variable recharge area, intermediate storage and memory effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosseini, Seiyed Mossa; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad; Simmons, Craig T.

2017-09-01

A simple conceptual rainfall-runoff model is proposed for the estimation of groundwater balance components in complex karst aquifers. In the proposed model the effects of memory length of different karst flow systems of base-flow, intermediate-flow, and quick-flow and also time variation of recharge area (RA) during a hydrological year were investigated. The model consists of three sub-models: soil moisture balance (SMB), epikarst balance (EPB), and groundwater balance (GWB) to simulate the daily spring discharge. The SMB and EPB sub-models utilize the mass conservation equation to compute the variation of moisture storages in the soil cover and epikarst, respectively. The GWB sub-model computes the spring discharge hydrograph through three parallel linear reservoirs for base-flow, intermediate-flow, and quick-flow. Three antecedent recharge indices are defined and embedded in the model structure to deal with the memory effect of three karst flow systems to antecedent recharge flow. The Sasan Karst aquifer located in the semi-arid region of south-west Iran with a continuous long-term (21-years) daily meteorological and discharge data are considered to describe model calibration and validation procedures. The effects of temporal variations of RA of karst formations during the hydrological year namely invariant RA, two RA (winter and summer), four RA (seasonal), and twelve RA (monthly) are assessed to determine their impact on the model efficiency. Results indicated that the proposed model with monthly-variant RA is able to reproduce acceptable simulation results based on modified Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE = -0.83). The results of density-based global sensitivity analysis for dry (June to September) and a wet (October to May) period reveal the dominant influence of RA (with sensitivity indices equal to 0.89 and 0.93, respectively) in spring discharge simulation. The sensitivity of simulated spring discharge to memory effect of different karst formations during the dry period is greater than the wet period. In addition, the results reveal the important role of intermediate-flow system in the hydrological modeling of karst systems during the wet period. Precise estimation of groundwater budgets for a better decision making regarding water supplies from complex karst systems with long memory effect can considerably be improved by use of the proposed model.

Monte-Carlo-based uncertainty propagation with hierarchical models—a case study in dynamic torque

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klaus, Leonard; Eichstädt, Sascha

2018-04-01

For a dynamic calibration, a torque transducer is described by a mechanical model, and the corresponding model parameters are to be identified from measurement data. A measuring device for the primary calibration of dynamic torque, and a corresponding model-based calibration approach, have recently been developed at PTB. The complete mechanical model of the calibration set-up is very complex, and involves several calibration steps—making a straightforward implementation of a Monte Carlo uncertainty evaluation tedious. With this in mind, we here propose to separate the complete model into sub-models, with each sub-model being treated with individual experiments and analysis. The uncertainty evaluation for the overall model then has to combine the information from the sub-models in line with Supplement 2 of the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement. In this contribution, we demonstrate how to carry this out using the Monte Carlo method. The uncertainty evaluation involves various input quantities of different origin and the solution of a numerical optimisation problem.

Experiments and Model Development for the Investigation of Sooting and Radiation Effects in Microgravity Droplet Combustion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choi, Mun Young; Yozgatligil, Ahmet; Dryer, Frederick L.; Kazakov, Andrei; Dobashi, Ritsu

2001-01-01

Today, despite efforts to develop and utilize natural gas and renewable energy sources, nearly 97% of the energy used for transportation is derived from combustion of liquid fuels, principally derived from petroleum. While society continues to rely on liquid petroleum-based fuels as a major energy source in spite of their finite supply, it is of paramount importance to maximize the efficiency and minimize the environmental impact of the devices that burn these fuels. The development of improved energy conversion systems, having higher efficiencies and lower emissions, is central to meeting both local and regional air quality standards. This development requires improvements in computational design tools for applied energy conversion systems, which in turn requires more robust sub-model components for combustion chemistry, transport, energy transport (including radiation), and pollutant emissions (soot formation and burnout). The study of isolated droplet burning as a unidimensional, time dependent model diffusion flame system facilitates extensions of these mechanisms to include fuel molecular sizes and pollutants typical of conventional and alternative liquid fuels used in the transportation sector. Because of the simplified geometry, sub-model components from the most detailed to those reduced to sizes compatible for use in multi-dimensional, time dependent applied models can be developed, compared and validated against experimental diffusion flame processes, and tested against one another. Based on observations in microgravity experiments on droplet combustion, it appears that the formation and lingering presence of soot within the fuel-rich region of isolated droplets can modify the burning rate, flame structure and extinction, soot aerosol properties, and the effective thermophysical properties. These observations led to the belief that perhaps one of the most important outstanding contributions of microgravity droplet combustion is the observation that in the absence of asymmetrical forced and natural convection, a soot shell is formed between the droplet surface and the flame, exerting an influence on the droplet combustion response far greater than previously recognized. The effects of soot on droplet burning parameters, including burning rate, soot shell dynamics, flame structure, and extinction phenomena provide significant testing parameters for studying the structure and coupling of soot models with other sub-model components.

Non-uniform overland flow-infiltration model for roadside swales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Serrana, María; Gulliver, John S.; Nieber, John L.

2017-09-01

There is a need to quantify the hydrologic performance of vegetated roadside swales (drainage ditches) as stormwater control measures (SCMs). To quantify their infiltration performance in both the side slope and the channel of the swale, a model has been developed for coupling a Green-Ampt-Mein-Larson (GAML) infiltration submodel with kinematic wave submodels for both overland flow down the side slope and open channel flow for flow in the ditch. The coupled GAML submodel and overland flow submodel has been validated using data collected in twelve simulated runoff tests in three different highways located in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area, MN. The percentage of the total water infiltrated into the side slope is considerably greater than into the channel. Thus, the side slope of a roadside swale is the main component contributing to the loss of runoff by infiltration and the channel primarily conveys the water that runs off the side slope, for the typical design found in highways. Finally, as demonstrated in field observations and the model, the fraction of the runoff/rainfall infiltrated (Vi∗) into the roadside swale appears to increase with a dimensionless saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks∗), which is a function of the saturated hydraulic conductivity, rainfall intensity, and dimensions of the swale and contributing road surface. For design purposes, the relationship between Vi∗ and Ks∗ can provide a rough estimate of the fraction of runoff/rainfall infiltrated with the few essential parameters that appear to dominate the results.

Three-dimensional multi-scale model of deformable platelets adhesion to vessel wall in blood flow

PubMed Central

Wu, Ziheng; Xu, Zhiliang; Kim, Oleg; Alber, Mark

2014-01-01

When a blood vessel ruptures or gets inflamed, the human body responds by rapidly forming a clot to restrict the loss of blood. Platelets aggregation at the injury site of the blood vessel occurring via platelet–platelet adhesion, tethering and rolling on the injured endothelium is a critical initial step in blood clot formation. A novel three-dimensional multi-scale model is introduced and used in this paper to simulate receptor-mediated adhesion of deformable platelets at the site of vascular injury under different shear rates of blood flow. The novelty of the model is based on a new approach of coupling submodels at three biological scales crucial for the early clot formation: novel hybrid cell membrane submodel to represent physiological elastic properties of a platelet, stochastic receptor–ligand binding submodel to describe cell adhesion kinetics and lattice Boltzmann submodel for simulating blood flow. The model implementation on the GPU cluster significantly improved simulation performance. Predictive model simulations revealed that platelet deformation, interactions between platelets in the vicinity of the vessel wall as well as the number of functional GPIbα platelet receptors played significant roles in platelet adhesion to the injury site. Variation of the number of functional GPIbα platelet receptors as well as changes of platelet stiffness can represent effects of specific drugs reducing or enhancing platelet activity. Therefore, predictive simulations can improve the search for new drug targets and help to make treatment of thrombosis patient-specific. PMID:24982253

NASIS data base management system: IBM 360 TSS implementation. Volume 4: Program design specifications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1973-01-01

The design specifications for the programs and modules within the NASA Aerospace Safety Information System (NASIS) are presented. The purpose of the design specifications is to standardize the preparation of the specifications and to guide the program design. Each major functional module within the system is a separate entity for documentation purposes. The design specifications contain a description of, and specifications for, all detail processing which occurs in the module. Sub-models, reference tables, and data sets which are common to several modules are documented separately.

A new process sensitivity index to identify important system processes under process model and parametric uncertainty

DOE PAGES

Dai, Heng; Ye, Ming; Walker, Anthony P.; ...

2017-03-28

A hydrological model consists of multiple process level submodels, and each submodel represents a process key to the operation of the simulated system. Global sensitivity analysis methods have been widely used to identify important processes for system model development and improvement. The existing methods of global sensitivity analysis only consider parametric uncertainty, and are not capable of handling model uncertainty caused by multiple process models that arise from competing hypotheses about one or more processes. To address this problem, this study develops a new method to probe model output sensitivity to competing process models by integrating model averaging methods withmore » variance-based global sensitivity analysis. A process sensitivity index is derived as a single summary measure of relative process importance, and the index includes variance in model outputs caused by uncertainty in both process models and their parameters. Here, for demonstration, the new index is used to assign importance to the processes of recharge and geology in a synthetic study of groundwater reactive transport modeling. The recharge process is simulated by two models that convert precipitation to recharge, and the geology process is simulated by two models of hydraulic conductivity. Each process model has its own random parameters. Finally, the new process sensitivity index is mathematically general, and can be applied to a wide range of problems in hydrology and beyond.« less

A new process sensitivity index to identify important system processes under process model and parametric uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dai, Heng; Ye, Ming; Walker, Anthony P.

A hydrological model consists of multiple process level submodels, and each submodel represents a process key to the operation of the simulated system. Global sensitivity analysis methods have been widely used to identify important processes for system model development and improvement. The existing methods of global sensitivity analysis only consider parametric uncertainty, and are not capable of handling model uncertainty caused by multiple process models that arise from competing hypotheses about one or more processes. To address this problem, this study develops a new method to probe model output sensitivity to competing process models by integrating model averaging methods withmore » variance-based global sensitivity analysis. A process sensitivity index is derived as a single summary measure of relative process importance, and the index includes variance in model outputs caused by uncertainty in both process models and their parameters. Here, for demonstration, the new index is used to assign importance to the processes of recharge and geology in a synthetic study of groundwater reactive transport modeling. The recharge process is simulated by two models that convert precipitation to recharge, and the geology process is simulated by two models of hydraulic conductivity. Each process model has its own random parameters. Finally, the new process sensitivity index is mathematically general, and can be applied to a wide range of problems in hydrology and beyond.« less

Building generic anatomical models using virtual model cutting and iterative registration.

PubMed

Xiao, Mei; Soh, Jung; Meruvia-Pastor, Oscar; Schmidt, Eric; Hallgrímsson, Benedikt; Sensen, Christoph W

2010-02-08

Using 3D generic models to statistically analyze trends in biological structure changes is an important tool in morphometrics research. Therefore, 3D generic models built for a range of populations are in high demand. However, due to the complexity of biological structures and the limited views of them that medical images can offer, it is still an exceptionally difficult task to quickly and accurately create 3D generic models (a model is a 3D graphical representation of a biological structure) based on medical image stacks (a stack is an ordered collection of 2D images). We show that the creation of a generic model that captures spatial information exploitable in statistical analyses is facilitated by coupling our generalized segmentation method to existing automatic image registration algorithms. The method of creating generic 3D models consists of the following processing steps: (i) scanning subjects to obtain image stacks; (ii) creating individual 3D models from the stacks; (iii) interactively extracting sub-volume by cutting each model to generate the sub-model of interest; (iv) creating image stacks that contain only the information pertaining to the sub-models; (v) iteratively registering the corresponding new 2D image stacks; (vi) averaging the newly created sub-models based on intensity to produce the generic model from all the individual sub-models. After several registration procedures are applied to the image stacks, we can create averaged image stacks with sharp boundaries. The averaged 3D model created from those image stacks is very close to the average representation of the population. The image registration time varies depending on the image size and the desired accuracy of the registration. Both volumetric data and surface model for the generic 3D model are created at the final step. Our method is very flexible and easy to use such that anyone can use image stacks to create models and retrieve a sub-region from it at their ease. Java-based implementation allows our method to be used on various visualization systems including personal computers, workstations, computers equipped with stereo displays, and even virtual reality rooms such as the CAVE Automated Virtual Environment. The technique allows biologists to build generic 3D models of their interest quickly and accurately.

A model-data fusion analysis for examining the response of carbon exchange to environmental variation in crop field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yokozawa, M.; Sakurai, G.; Ono, K.; Mano, M.; Miyata, A.

2011-12-01

Agricultural activities, cultivating crops, managing soil, harvesting and post-harvest treatments, are not only affected from the surrounding environment but also change the environment reversely. The changes in environment, temperature, radiation and precipitation, brings changes in crop productivity. On the other hand, the status of crops, i.e. the growth and phenological stage, change the exchange of energy, H2O and CO2 between crop vegetation surface and atmosphere. Conducting the stable agricultural harvests, reducing the Greenhouse Effect Gas (GHG) emission and enhancing carbon sequestration in soil are preferable as a win-win activity. We conducted model-data fusion analysis for examining the response of cropland-atmosphere carbon exchange to environmental variation. The used model consists of two sub models, paddy rice growth sub-model and soil decomposition sub-model. The crop growth sub-model mimics the rice plant growth processes including formation of reproductive organs as well as leaf expansion. The soil decomposition sub-model simulates the decomposition process of soil organic carbon. Assimilating the data on the time changes in CO2 flux measured by eddy covariance method, rice plant biomass, LAI and the final yield with the model, the parameters were calibrated using a stochastic optimization algorithm with a particle filter. The particle filter, which is one of Monte Carlo filters, enable us to evaluating time changes in parameters based on the observed data until the time and to make prediction of the system. Iterative filtering and prediction with changing parameters and/or boundary condition enable us to obtain time changes in parameters governing the crop production as well as carbon exchange. In this paper, we applied the model-data fusion analysis to the two datasets on paddy rice field sites in Japan: only a single rice cultivation, and a single rice and wheat cultivation. We focused on the parameters related to crop production as well as soil carbon storage. As a result, the calibrated model with estimated parameters could accurately predict the NEE flux in the subsequent years (Fig.1). The temperature sensitivity, Q10s in the decomposition rate of soil organic carbon (SOC) were obtained as 1.4 for no cultivation period and 2.9 for cultivation period (submerged soil condition).

Comprehensive model for predicting elemental composition of coal pyrolysis products

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ricahrds, Andrew P.; Shutt, Tim; Fletcher, Thomas H.

Large-scale coal combustion simulations depend highly on the accuracy and utility of the physical submodels used to describe the various physical behaviors of the system. Coal combustion simulations depend on the particle physics to predict product compositions, temperatures, energy outputs, and other useful information. The focus of this paper is to improve the accuracy of devolatilization submodels, to be used in conjunction with other particle physics models. Many large simulations today rely on inaccurate assumptions about particle compositions, including that the volatiles that are released during pyrolysis are of the same elemental composition as the char particle. Another common assumptionmore » is that the char particle can be approximated by pure carbon. These assumptions will lead to inaccuracies in the overall simulation. There are many factors that influence pyrolysis product composition, including parent coal composition, pyrolysis conditions (including particle temperature history and heating rate), and others. All of these factors are incorporated into the correlations to predict the elemental composition of the major pyrolysis products, including coal tar, char, and light gases.« less

Drift-Scale THC Seepage Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

C.R. Bryan

The purpose of this report (REV04) is to document the thermal-hydrologic-chemical (THC) seepage model, which simulates the composition of waters that could potentially seep into emplacement drifts, and the composition of the gas phase. The THC seepage model is processed and abstracted for use in the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA). This report has been developed in accordance with ''Technical Work Plan for: Near-Field Environment and Transport: Coupled Processes (Mountain-Scale TH/THC/THM, Drift-Scale THC Seepage, and Post-Processing Analysis for THC Seepage) Report Integration'' (BSC 2005 [DIRS 172761]). The technical work plan (TWP) describes planning information pertainingmore » to the technical scope, content, and management of this report. The plan for validation of the models documented in this report is given in Section 2.2.2, ''Model Validation for the DS THC Seepage Model,'' of the TWP. The TWP (Section 3.2.2) identifies Acceptance Criteria 1 to 4 for ''Quantity and Chemistry of Water Contacting Engineered Barriers and Waste Forms'' (NRC 2003 [DIRS 163274]) as being applicable to this report; however, in variance to the TWP, Acceptance Criterion 5 has also been determined to be applicable, and is addressed, along with the other Acceptance Criteria, in Section 4.2 of this report. Also, three FEPS not listed in the TWP (2.2.10.01.0A, 2.2.10.06.0A, and 2.2.11.02.0A) are partially addressed in this report, and have been added to the list of excluded FEPS in Table 6.1-2. This report has been developed in accordance with LP-SIII.10Q-BSC, ''Models''. This report documents the THC seepage model and a derivative used for validation, the Drift Scale Test (DST) THC submodel. The THC seepage model is a drift-scale process model for predicting the composition of gas and water that could enter waste emplacement drifts and the effects of mineral alteration on flow in rocks surrounding drifts. The DST THC submodel uses a drift-scale process model relying on the same conceptual model and many of the same input data (i.e., physical, hydrologic, thermodynamic, and kinetic) as the THC seepage model. The DST THC submodel is the primary means for validating the THC seepage model. The DST THC submodel compares predicted water and gas compositions, and mineral alteration patterns, with observed data from the DST. These models provide the framework to evaluate THC coupled processes at the drift scale, predict flow and transport behavior for specified thermal-loading conditions, and predict the evolution of mineral alteration and fluid chemistry around potential waste emplacement drifts. The DST THC submodel is used solely for the validation of the THC seepage model and is not used for calibration to measured data.« less

Variability of Phenology and Fluxes of Water and Carbon with Observed and Simulated Soil Moisture in the Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM Version 1.0.1.0.0)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Y.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Aleinov, Igor; Puma, M. J.; Kiang, N. Y.

2015-01-01

The Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM) is a mixed-canopy dynamic global vegetation model developed specifically for coupling with land surface hydrology and general circulation models (GCMs). This study describes the leaf phenology submodel implemented in the Ent TBM version 1.0.1.0.0 coupled to the carbon allocation scheme of the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model. The phenology submodel adopts a combination of responses to temperature (growing degree days and frost hardening), soil moisture (linearity of stress with relative saturation) and radiation (light length). Growth of leaves, sapwood, fine roots, stem wood and coarse roots is updated on a daily basis. We evaluate the performance in reproducing observed leaf seasonal growth as well as water and carbon fluxes for four plant functional types at five Fluxnet sites, with both observed and prognostic hydrology, and observed and prognostic seasonal leaf area index. The phenology submodel is able to capture the timing and magnitude of leaf-out and senescence for temperate broadleaf deciduous forest (Harvard Forest and Morgan- Monroe State Forest, US), C3 annual grassland (Vaira Ranch, US) and California oak savanna (Tonzi Ranch, US). For evergreen needleleaf forest (Hyytiäla, Finland), the phenology submodel captures the effect of frost hardening of photosynthetic capacity on seasonal fluxes and leaf area. We address the importance of customizing parameter sets of vegetation soil moisture stress response to the particular land surface hydrology scheme. We identify model deficiencies that reveal important dynamics and parameter needs.

Simulation and optimization model for irrigation planning and management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, Sheng-Feng; Liu, Chen-Wuing

2003-10-01

A simulation and optimization model was developed and applied to an irrigated area in Delta, Utah to optimize the economic benefit, simulate the water demand, and search the related crop area percentages with specified water supply and planted area constraints. The user interface model begins with the weather generation submodel, which produces daily weather data, which is based on long-term monthly average and standard deviation data from Delta, Utah. To simulate the daily crop water demand and relative crop yield for seven crops in two command areas, the information provided by this submodel was applied to the on-farm irrigation scheduling submodel. Furthermore, to optimize the project benefit by searching for the best allocation of planted crop areas given the constraints of projected water supply, the results were employed in the genetic algorithm submodel. Optimal planning for the 394·6-ha area of the Delta irrigation project is projected to produce the maximum economic benefit. That is, projected profit equals US$113 826 and projected water demand equals 3·03 × 106 m3. Also, area percentages of crops within UCA#2 command area are 70·1%, 19% and 10·9% for alfalfa, barley and corn, respectively, and within UCA#4 command area are 41·5%, 38·9%, 14·4% and 5·2% for alfalfa, barley, corn and wheat, respectively. As this model can plan irrigation application depths and allocate crop areas for optimal economic benefit, it can thus be applied to many irrigation projects. Copyright

A Decision Mixture Model-Based Method for Inshore Ship Detection Using High-Resolution Remote Sensing Images

PubMed Central

Bi, Fukun; Chen, Jing; Zhuang, Yin; Bian, Mingming; Zhang, Qingjun

2017-01-01

With the rapid development of optical remote sensing satellites, ship detection and identification based on large-scale remote sensing images has become a significant maritime research topic. Compared with traditional ocean-going vessel detection, inshore ship detection has received increasing attention in harbor dynamic surveillance and maritime management. However, because the harbor environment is complex, gray information and texture features between docked ships and their connected dock regions are indistinguishable, most of the popular detection methods are limited by their calculation efficiency and detection accuracy. In this paper, a novel hierarchical method that combines an efficient candidate scanning strategy and an accurate candidate identification mixture model is presented for inshore ship detection in complex harbor areas. First, in the candidate region extraction phase, an omnidirectional intersected two-dimension scanning (OITDS) strategy is designed to rapidly extract candidate regions from the land-water segmented images. In the candidate region identification phase, a decision mixture model (DMM) is proposed to identify real ships from candidate objects. Specifically, to improve the robustness regarding the diversity of ships, a deformable part model (DPM) was employed to train a key part sub-model and a whole ship sub-model. Furthermore, to improve the identification accuracy, a surrounding correlation context sub-model is built. Finally, to increase the accuracy of candidate region identification, these three sub-models are integrated into the proposed DMM. Experiments were performed on numerous large-scale harbor remote sensing images, and the results showed that the proposed method has high detection accuracy and rapid computational efficiency. PMID:28640236

A Decision Mixture Model-Based Method for Inshore Ship Detection Using High-Resolution Remote Sensing Images.

PubMed

Bi, Fukun; Chen, Jing; Zhuang, Yin; Bian, Mingming; Zhang, Qingjun

2017-06-22

With the rapid development of optical remote sensing satellites, ship detection and identification based on large-scale remote sensing images has become a significant maritime research topic. Compared with traditional ocean-going vessel detection, inshore ship detection has received increasing attention in harbor dynamic surveillance and maritime management. However, because the harbor environment is complex, gray information and texture features between docked ships and their connected dock regions are indistinguishable, most of the popular detection methods are limited by their calculation efficiency and detection accuracy. In this paper, a novel hierarchical method that combines an efficient candidate scanning strategy and an accurate candidate identification mixture model is presented for inshore ship detection in complex harbor areas. First, in the candidate region extraction phase, an omnidirectional intersected two-dimension scanning (OITDS) strategy is designed to rapidly extract candidate regions from the land-water segmented images. In the candidate region identification phase, a decision mixture model (DMM) is proposed to identify real ships from candidate objects. Specifically, to improve the robustness regarding the diversity of ships, a deformable part model (DPM) was employed to train a key part sub-model and a whole ship sub-model. Furthermore, to improve the identification accuracy, a surrounding correlation context sub-model is built. Finally, to increase the accuracy of candidate region identification, these three sub-models are integrated into the proposed DMM. Experiments were performed on numerous large-scale harbor remote sensing images, and the results showed that the proposed method has high detection accuracy and rapid computational efficiency.

Variability of phenology and fluxes of water and carbon with observed and simulated soil moisture in the Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM version 1.0.1.0.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Aleinov, I.; Puma, M. J.; Kiang, N. Y.

2015-12-01

The Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM) is a mixed-canopy dynamic global vegetation model developed specifically for coupling with land surface hydrology and general circulation models (GCMs). This study describes the leaf phenology submodel implemented in the Ent TBM version 1.0.1.0.0 coupled to the carbon allocation scheme of the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model. The phenology submodel adopts a combination of responses to temperature (growing degree days and frost hardening), soil moisture (linearity of stress with relative saturation) and radiation (light length). Growth of leaves, sapwood, fine roots, stem wood and coarse roots is updated on a daily basis. We evaluate the performance in reproducing observed leaf seasonal growth as well as water and carbon fluxes for four plant functional types at five Fluxnet sites, with both observed and prognostic hydrology, and observed and prognostic seasonal leaf area index. The phenology submodel is able to capture the timing and magnitude of leaf-out and senescence for temperate broadleaf deciduous forest (Harvard Forest and Morgan-Monroe State Forest, US), C3 annual grassland (Vaira Ranch, US) and California oak savanna (Tonzi Ranch, US). For evergreen needleleaf forest (Hyytiäla, Finland), the phenology submodel captures the effect of frost hardening of photosynthetic capacity on seasonal fluxes and leaf area. We address the importance of customizing parameter sets of vegetation soil moisture stress response to the particular land surface hydrology scheme. We identify model deficiencies that reveal important dynamics and parameter needs.

Software for Engineering Simulations of a Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shireman, Kirk; McSwain, Gene; McCormick, Bernell; Fardelos, Panayiotis

2005-01-01

Spacecraft Engineering Simulation II (SES II) is a C-language computer program for simulating diverse aspects of operation of a spacecraft characterized by either three or six degrees of freedom. A functional model in SES can include a trajectory flight plan; a submodel of a flight computer running navigational and flight-control software; and submodels of the environment, the dynamics of the spacecraft, and sensor inputs and outputs. SES II features a modular, object-oriented programming style. SES II supports event-based simulations, which, in turn, create an easily adaptable simulation environment in which many different types of trajectories can be simulated by use of the same software. The simulation output consists largely of flight data. SES II can be used to perform optimization and Monte Carlo dispersion simulations. It can also be used to perform simulations for multiple spacecraft. In addition to its generic simulation capabilities, SES offers special capabilities for space-shuttle simulations: for this purpose, it incorporates submodels of the space-shuttle dynamics and a C-language version of the guidance, navigation, and control components of the space-shuttle flight software.

Parallelization of fine-scale computation in Agile Multiscale Modelling Methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macioł, Piotr; Michalik, Kazimierz

2016-10-01

Nowadays, multiscale modelling of material behavior is an extensively developed area. An important obstacle against its wide application is high computational demands. Among others, the parallelization of multiscale computations is a promising solution. Heterogeneous multiscale models are good candidates for parallelization, since communication between sub-models is limited. In this paper, the possibility of parallelization of multiscale models based on Agile Multiscale Methodology framework is discussed. A sequential, FEM based macroscopic model has been combined with concurrently computed fine-scale models, employing a MatCalc thermodynamic simulator. The main issues, being investigated in this work are: (i) the speed-up of multiscale models with special focus on fine-scale computations and (ii) on decreasing the quality of computations enforced by parallel execution. Speed-up has been evaluated on the basis of Amdahl's law equations. The problem of `delay error', rising from the parallel execution of fine scale sub-models, controlled by the sequential macroscopic sub-model is discussed. Some technical aspects of combining third-party commercial modelling software with an in-house multiscale framework and a MPI library are also discussed.

The Role of Global Hydrologic Processes in Interannual and Long-Term Climate Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.

1997-01-01

The earth's climate and its variability is linked inextricably with the presence of water on our planet. El Nino / Southern Oscillation-- the major mode of interannual variability-- is characterized by strong perturbations in oceanic evaporation, tropical rainfall, and radiation. On longer time scales, the major feedback mechanism in CO2-induced global warming is actually that due to increased water vapor holding capacity of the atmosphere. The global hydrologic cycle effects on climate are manifested through influence of cloud and water vapor on energy fluxes at the top of atmosphere and at the surface. Surface moisture anomalies retain the "memory" of past precipitation anomalies and subsequently alter the partitioning of latent and sensible heat fluxes at the surface. At the top of atmosphere, water vapor and cloud perturbations alter the net amount of radiation that the earth's climate system receives. These pervasive linkages between water, radiation, and surface processes present major complexities for observing and modeling climate variations. Major uncertainties in the observations include vertical structure of clouds and water vapor, surface energy balance, and transport of water and heat by wind fields. Modeling climate variability and change on a physical basis requires accurate by simplified submodels of radiation, cloud formation, radiative exchange, surface biophysics, and oceanic energy flux. In the past, we m safely say that being "data poor' has limited our depth of understanding and impeded model validation and improvement. Beginning with pre-EOS data sets, many of these barriers are being removed. EOS platforms with the suite of measurements dedicated to specific science questions are part of our most cost effective path to improved understanding and predictive capability. This talk will highlight some of the major questions confronting global hydrology and the prospects for significant progress afforded by EOS-era measurements.

Evaluation of the transport matrix method for simulation of ocean biogeochemical tracers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kvale, Karin F.; Khatiwala, Samar; Dietze, Heiner; Kriest, Iris; Oschlies, Andreas

2017-06-01

Conventional integration of Earth system and ocean models can accrue considerable computational expenses, particularly for marine biogeochemical applications. Offline numerical schemes in which only the biogeochemical tracers are time stepped and transported using a pre-computed circulation field can substantially reduce the burden and are thus an attractive alternative. One such scheme is the transport matrix method (TMM), which represents tracer transport as a sequence of sparse matrix-vector products that can be performed efficiently on distributed-memory computers. While the TMM has been used for a variety of geochemical and biogeochemical studies, to date the resulting solutions have not been comprehensively assessed against their online counterparts. Here, we present a detailed comparison of the two. It is based on simulations of the state-of-the-art biogeochemical sub-model embedded within the widely used coarse-resolution University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). The default, non-linear advection scheme was first replaced with a linear, third-order upwind-biased advection scheme to satisfy the linearity requirement of the TMM. Transport matrices were extracted from an equilibrium run of the physical model and subsequently used to integrate the biogeochemical model offline to equilibrium. The identical biogeochemical model was also run online. Our simulations show that offline integration introduces some bias to biogeochemical quantities through the omission of the polar filtering used in UVic ESCM and in the offline application of time-dependent forcing fields, with high latitudes showing the largest differences with respect to the online model. Differences in other regions and in the seasonality of nutrients and phytoplankton distributions are found to be relatively minor, giving confidence that the TMM is a reliable tool for offline integration of complex biogeochemical models. Moreover, while UVic ESCM is a serial code, the TMM can be run on a parallel machine with no change to the underlying biogeochemical code, thus providing orders of magnitude speed-up over the online model.

IABP timing and ventricular performance--comparison between a compliant and a stiffer aorta: a hybrid model study including baroreflex.

PubMed

Fresiello, Libera; Khir, Ashraf W; Di Molfetta, Arianna; Kozarski, Maciej; Ferrari, Gianfranco

2013-11-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of the intra aortic balloon pump (IABP) and of aortic compliance on left ventricular performance, including the effects of baroreflex control.
 The study was conducted using a hybrid cardiovascular simulator, including a computational cardiovascular sub-model, a hydraulic sub-model of the descending aorta, and a baroreflex computational sub-model. A 40 cc balloon was inserted into a rubber tube component of the hydraulic sub-model. A comparative analysis was conducted for two aortic compliances (C1 = 2.4 and C2 = 1.43 cm3/mmHg, corresponding to an aortic pulse pressure of 23 mmHg and 35 mmHg, respectively), driving the balloon for different trigger timings.
 Under C1 conditions, the IABP induced higher effects on baroreflex activity (decrement of sympathetic efferent activity: 10% for C1 and 14.7% for C2) and ventricular performance (increment of cardiac output (CO): 3.7% for C1 and 5.2% for C2, increment of endocardial viability ratio (EVR): 24.8% for C1 and 55% for C2). The best balloon timing was different for C1 and C2: inflation trigger timing (from the dicrotic notch) -0.09 s for C1 and -0.04 s for C2, inflation duration 0.25 s for C1 and 0.2 s for C2.
 Early inflation ensures better EVR, CO, and an increment of the afferent nerve activity, hence causing peripheral resistance and heart rate to decrease. The best balloon timing depends on aortic compliance, thus suggesting the need for a therapy tailored to the specific conditions of individual patients.

Numerical Investigation of the Effect of C/O Mole Ratio on the Performance of Rotary Hearth Furnace Using a Combined Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Ying; Wen, Zhi; Lou, Guofeng; Li, Zhi; Yong, Haiquan; Feng, Xiaohong

2014-12-01

In a rotary hearth furnace (RHF) the direct reduction of composite pellets and processes of heat and mass transfer as well as combustion in the chamber of RHF influence each other. These mutual interactions should be considered when an accurate model of RHF is established. This paper provides a combined model that incorporates two sub-models to investigate the effects of C/O mole ratio in the feed pellets on the reduction kinetics and heat and mass transfer as well as combustion processes in the chamber of a pilot-scale RHF. One of the sub-models is established to describe the direct reduction process of composite pellets on the hearth of RHF. Heat and mass transfer within the pellet, chemical reactions, and radiative heat transfer from furnace walls and combustion gas to the surface of the pellet are considered in the model. The other sub-model is used to simulate gas flow and combustion process in the chamber of RHF by using commercial CFD software, FLUENT. The two sub-models were linked through boundary conditions and heat, mass sources. Cases for pellets with different C/O mole ratio were calculated by the combined model. The calculation results showed that the degree of metallization, the total amounts of carbon monoxide escaping from the pellet, and heat absorbed by chemical reactions within the pellet as well as CO and CO2 concentrations in the furnace increase with the increase of C/O mole ratio ranging from 0.6 to 1.0, when calculation conditions are the same except for C/O molar ratio. Carbon content in the pellet has little influence on temperature distribution in the furnace under the same calculation conditions except for C/O mole ratio in the feed pellets.

Development of a flocculation sub-model for a 3-D CFD model based on rectangular settling tanks.

PubMed

Gong, M; Xanthos, S; Ramalingam, K; Fillos, J; Beckmann, K; Deur, A; McCorquodale, J A

2011-01-01

To assess performance and evaluate alternatives to improve the efficiency of rectangular Gould II type final settling tanks (FSTs), New York City Department of Environmental Protection and City College of NY developed a 3D computer model depicting the actual structural configuration of the tanks and the current and proposed hydraulic and solids loading rates. Fluent 6.3.26™ was the base platform for the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model, for which sub-models of the SS settling characteristics, turbulence, flocculation and rheology were incorporated. This was supplemented by field and bench scale experiments to quantify the coefficients integral to the sub-models. The 3D model developed can be used to consider different baffle arrangements, sludge withdrawal mechanisms and loading alternatives to the FSTs. Flocculation in the front half of the rectangular tank especially in the region before and after the inlet baffle is one of the vital parameters that influences the capture efficiency of SS. Flocculation could be further improved by capturing medium and small size particles by creating an additional zone with an in-tank baffle. This was one of the methods that was adopted in optimizing the performance of the tank where the CCNY 3D CFD model was used to locate the in-tank baffle position. This paper describes the development of the flocculation sub-model and the relationship of the flocculation coefficients in the known Parker equation to the initial mixed liquor suspended solids (MLSS) concentration X0. A new modified equation is proposed removing the dependency of the breakup coefficient to the initial value of X0 based on preliminary data using normal and low concentration mixed liquor suspended solids values in flocculation experiments performed.

Correlation models for waste tank sludges and slurries

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahoney, L.A.; Trent, D.S.

This report presents the results of work conducted to support the TEMPEST computer modeling under the Flammable Gas Program (FGP) and to further the comprehension of the physical processes occurring in the Hanford waste tanks. The end products of this task are correlation models (sets of algorithms) that can be added to the TEMPEST computer code to improve the reliability of its simulation of the physical processes that occur in Hanford tanks. The correlation models can be used to augment, not only the TEMPEST code, but other computer codes that can simulate sludge motion and flammable gas retention. This reportmore » presents the correlation models, also termed submodels, that have been developed to date. The submodel-development process is an ongoing effort designed to increase our understanding of sludge behavior and improve our ability to realistically simulate the sludge fluid characteristics that have an impact on safety analysis. The effort has employed both literature searches and data correlation to provide an encyclopedia of tank waste properties in forms that are relatively easy to use in modeling waste behavior. These properties submodels will be used in other tasks to simulate waste behavior in the tanks. Density, viscosity, yield strength, surface tension, heat capacity, thermal conductivity, salt solubility, and ammonia and water vapor pressures were compiled for solutions and suspensions of sodium nitrate and other salts (where data were available), and the data were correlated by linear regression. In addition, data for simulated Hanford waste tank supernatant were correlated to provide density, solubility, surface tension, and vapor pressure submodels for multi-component solutions containing sodium hydroxide, sodium nitrate, sodium nitrite, and sodium aluminate.« less

Biomimicry of quorum sensing using bacterial lifecycle model.

PubMed

Niu, Ben; Wang, Hong; Duan, Qiqi; Li, Li

2013-01-01

Recent microbiologic studies have shown that quorum sensing mechanisms, which serve as one of the fundamental requirements for bacterial survival, exist widely in bacterial intra- and inter-species cell-cell communication. Many simulation models, inspired by the social behavior of natural organisms, are presented to provide new approaches for solving realistic optimization problems. Most of these simulation models follow population-based modelling approaches, where all the individuals are updated according to the same rules. Therefore, it is difficult to maintain the diversity of the population. In this paper, we present a computational model termed LCM-QS, which simulates the bacterial quorum-sensing (QS) mechanism using an individual-based modelling approach under the framework of Agent-Environment-Rule (AER) scheme, i.e. bacterial lifecycle model (LCM). LCM-QS model can be classified into three main sub-models: chemotaxis with QS sub-model, reproduction and elimination sub-model and migration sub-model. The proposed model is used to not only imitate the bacterial evolution process at the single-cell level, but also concentrate on the study of bacterial macroscopic behaviour. Comparative experiments under four different scenarios have been conducted in an artificial 3-D environment with nutrients and noxious distribution. Detailed study on bacterial chemotatic processes with quorum sensing and without quorum sensing are compared. By using quorum sensing mechanisms, artificial bacteria working together can find the nutrient concentration (or global optimum) quickly in the artificial environment. Biomimicry of quorum sensing mechanisms using the lifecycle model allows the artificial bacteria endowed with the communication abilities, which are essential to obtain more valuable information to guide their search cooperatively towards the preferred nutrient concentrations. It can also provide an inspiration for designing new swarm intelligence optimization algorithms, which can be used for solving the real-world problems.

Biomimicry of quorum sensing using bacterial lifecycle model

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Recent microbiologic studies have shown that quorum sensing mechanisms, which serve as one of the fundamental requirements for bacterial survival, exist widely in bacterial intra- and inter-species cell-cell communication. Many simulation models, inspired by the social behavior of natural organisms, are presented to provide new approaches for solving realistic optimization problems. Most of these simulation models follow population-based modelling approaches, where all the individuals are updated according to the same rules. Therefore, it is difficult to maintain the diversity of the population. Results In this paper, we present a computational model termed LCM-QS, which simulates the bacterial quorum-sensing (QS) mechanism using an individual-based modelling approach under the framework of Agent-Environment-Rule (AER) scheme, i.e. bacterial lifecycle model (LCM). LCM-QS model can be classified into three main sub-models: chemotaxis with QS sub-model, reproduction and elimination sub-model and migration sub-model. The proposed model is used to not only imitate the bacterial evolution process at the single-cell level, but also concentrate on the study of bacterial macroscopic behaviour. Comparative experiments under four different scenarios have been conducted in an artificial 3-D environment with nutrients and noxious distribution. Detailed study on bacterial chemotatic processes with quorum sensing and without quorum sensing are compared. By using quorum sensing mechanisms, artificial bacteria working together can find the nutrient concentration (or global optimum) quickly in the artificial environment. Conclusions Biomimicry of quorum sensing mechanisms using the lifecycle model allows the artificial bacteria endowed with the communication abilities, which are essential to obtain more valuable information to guide their search cooperatively towards the preferred nutrient concentrations. It can also provide an inspiration for designing new swarm intelligence optimization algorithms, which can be used for solving the real-world problems. PMID:23815296

Spiking Neurons for Analysis of Patterns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huntsberger, Terrance

2008-01-01

Artificial neural networks comprising spiking neurons of a novel type have been conceived as improved pattern-analysis and pattern-recognition computational systems. These neurons are represented by a mathematical model denoted the state-variable model (SVM), which among other things, exploits a computational parallelism inherent in spiking-neuron geometry. Networks of SVM neurons offer advantages of speed and computational efficiency, relative to traditional artificial neural networks. The SVM also overcomes some of the limitations of prior spiking-neuron models. There are numerous potential pattern-recognition, tracking, and data-reduction (data preprocessing) applications for these SVM neural networks on Earth and in exploration of remote planets. Spiking neurons imitate biological neurons more closely than do the neurons of traditional artificial neural networks. A spiking neuron includes a central cell body (soma) surrounded by a tree-like interconnection network (dendrites). Spiking neurons are so named because they generate trains of output pulses (spikes) in response to inputs received from sensors or from other neurons. They gain their speed advantage over traditional neural networks by using the timing of individual spikes for computation, whereas traditional artificial neurons use averages of activity levels over time. Moreover, spiking neurons use the delays inherent in dendritic processing in order to efficiently encode the information content of incoming signals. Because traditional artificial neurons fail to capture this encoding, they have less processing capability, and so it is necessary to use more gates when implementing traditional artificial neurons in electronic circuitry. Such higher-order functions as dynamic tasking are effected by use of pools (collections) of spiking neurons interconnected by spike-transmitting fibers. The SVM includes adaptive thresholds and submodels of transport of ions (in imitation of such transport in biological neurons). These features enable the neurons to adapt their responses to high-rate inputs from sensors, and to adapt their firing thresholds to mitigate noise or effects of potential sensor failure. The mathematical derivation of the SVM starts from a prior model, known in the art as the point soma model, which captures all of the salient properties of neuronal response while keeping the computational cost low. The point-soma latency time is modified to be an exponentially decaying function of the strength of the applied potential. Choosing computational efficiency over biological fidelity, the dendrites surrounding a neuron are represented by simplified compartmental submodels and there are no dendritic spines. Updates to the dendritic potential, calcium-ion concentrations and conductances, and potassium-ion conductances are done by use of equations similar to those of the point soma. Diffusion processes in dendrites are modeled by averaging among nearest-neighbor compartments. Inputs to each of the dendritic compartments come from sensors. Alternatively or in addition, when an affected neuron is part of a pool, inputs can come from other spiking neurons. At present, SVM neural networks are implemented by computational simulation, using algorithms that encode the SVM and its submodels. However, it should be possible to implement these neural networks in hardware: The differential equations for the dendritic and cellular processes in the SVM model of spiking neurons map to equivalent circuits that can be implemented directly in analog very-large-scale integrated (VLSI) circuits.

The Software Architecture of Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, K. A.; Easterbrook, S. M.

2011-12-01

It has become common to compare and contrast the output of multiple global climate models (GCMs), such as in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). However, intercomparisons of the software architecture of GCMs are almost nonexistent. In this qualitative study of seven GCMs from Canada, the United States, and Europe, we attempt to fill this gap in research. We describe the various representations of the climate system as computer programs, and account for architectural differences between models. Most GCMs now practice component-based software engineering, where Earth system components (such as the atmosphere or land surface) are present as highly encapsulated sub-models. This architecture facilitates a mix-and-match approach to climate modelling that allows for convenient sharing of model components between institutions, but it also leads to difficulty when choosing where to draw the lines between systems that are not encapsulated in the real world, such as sea ice. We also examine different styles of couplers in GCMs, which manage interaction and data flow between components. Finally, we pay particular attention to the varying levels of complexity in GCMs, both between and within models. Many GCMs have some components that are significantly more complex than others, a phenomenon which can be explained by the respective institution's research goals as well as the origin of the model components. In conclusion, although some features of software architecture have been adopted by every GCM we examined, other features show a wide range of different design choices and strategies. These architectural differences may provide new insights into variability and spread between models.

A derivation of the Cramer-Rao lower bound of euclidean parameters under equality constraints via score function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susyanto, Nanang

2017-12-01

We propose a simple derivation of the Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) of parameters under equality constraints from the CRLB without constraints in regular parametric models. When a regular parametric model and an equality constraint of the parameter are given, a parametric submodel can be defined by restricting the parameter under that constraint. The tangent space of this submodel is then computed with the help of the implicit function theorem. Finally, the score function of the restricted parameter is obtained by projecting the efficient influence function of the unrestricted parameter on the appropriate inner product spaces.

Comprehensive Model of Single Particle Pulverized Coal Combustion Extended to Oxy-Coal Conditions

DOE PAGES

Holland, Troy; Fletcher, Thomas H.

2017-02-22

Oxy-fired coal combustion is a promising potential carbon capture technology. Predictive CFD simulations are valuable tools in evaluating and deploying oxy-fuel and other carbon capture technologies either as retrofit technologies or for new construction. But, accurate predictive simulations require physically realistic submodels with low computational requirements. In particular, comprehensive char oxidation and gasification models have been developed that describe multiple reaction and diffusion processes. Our work extends a comprehensive char conversion code (CCK), which treats surface oxidation and gasification reactions as well as processes such as film diffusion, pore diffusion, ash encapsulation, and annealing. In this work several submodels inmore » the CCK code were updated with more realistic physics or otherwise extended to function in oxy-coal conditions. Improved submodels include the annealing model, the swelling model, the mode of burning parameter, and the kinetic model, as well as the addition of the chemical percolation devolatilization (CPD) model. We compare our results of the char combustion model to oxy-coal data, and further compared to parallel data sets near conventional conditions. A potential method to apply the detailed code in CFD work is given.« less

Comprehensive Model of Single Particle Pulverized Coal Combustion Extended to Oxy-Coal Conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holland, Troy; Fletcher, Thomas H.

Oxy-fired coal combustion is a promising potential carbon capture technology. Predictive CFD simulations are valuable tools in evaluating and deploying oxy-fuel and other carbon capture technologies either as retrofit technologies or for new construction. But, accurate predictive simulations require physically realistic submodels with low computational requirements. In particular, comprehensive char oxidation and gasification models have been developed that describe multiple reaction and diffusion processes. Our work extends a comprehensive char conversion code (CCK), which treats surface oxidation and gasification reactions as well as processes such as film diffusion, pore diffusion, ash encapsulation, and annealing. In this work several submodels inmore » the CCK code were updated with more realistic physics or otherwise extended to function in oxy-coal conditions. Improved submodels include the annealing model, the swelling model, the mode of burning parameter, and the kinetic model, as well as the addition of the chemical percolation devolatilization (CPD) model. We compare our results of the char combustion model to oxy-coal data, and further compared to parallel data sets near conventional conditions. A potential method to apply the detailed code in CFD work is given.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gur, Sourav; Frantziskonis, George N.; Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ

Here, we report results from a numerical study of multi-time-scale bistable dynamics for CO oxidation on a catalytic surface in a flowing, well-mixed gas stream. The problem is posed in terms of surface and gas-phase submodels that dynamically interact in the presence of stochastic perturbations, reflecting the impact of molecular-scale fluctuations on the surface and turbulence in the gas. Wavelet-based methods are used to encode and characterize the temporal dynamics produced by each submodel and detect the onset of sudden state shifts (bifurcations) caused by nonlinear kinetics. When impending state shifts are detected, a more accurate but computationally expensive integrationmore » scheme can be used. This appears to make it possible, at least in some cases, to decrease the net computational burden associated with simulating multi-time-scale, nonlinear reacting systems by limiting the amount of time in which the more expensive integration schemes are required. Critical to achieving this is being able to detect unstable temporal transitions such as the bistable shifts in the example problem considered here. Lastly, our results indicate that a unique wavelet-based algorithm based on the Lipschitz exponent is capable of making such detections, even under noisy conditions, and may find applications in critical transition detection problems beyond catalysis.« less

Principal process analysis of biological models.

PubMed

Casagranda, Stefano; Touzeau, Suzanne; Ropers, Delphine; Gouzé, Jean-Luc

2018-06-14

Understanding the dynamical behaviour of biological systems is challenged by their large number of components and interactions. While efforts have been made in this direction to reduce model complexity, they often prove insufficient to grasp which and when model processes play a crucial role. Answering these questions is fundamental to unravel the functioning of living organisms. We design a method for dealing with model complexity, based on the analysis of dynamical models by means of Principal Process Analysis. We apply the method to a well-known model of circadian rhythms in mammals. The knowledge of the system trajectories allows us to decompose the system dynamics into processes that are active or inactive with respect to a certain threshold value. Process activities are graphically represented by Boolean and Dynamical Process Maps. We detect model processes that are always inactive, or inactive on some time interval. Eliminating these processes reduces the complex dynamics of the original model to the much simpler dynamics of the core processes, in a succession of sub-models that are easier to analyse. We quantify by means of global relative errors the extent to which the simplified models reproduce the main features of the original system dynamics and apply global sensitivity analysis to test the influence of model parameters on the errors. The results obtained prove the robustness of the method. The analysis of the sub-model dynamics allows us to identify the source of circadian oscillations. We find that the negative feedback loop involving proteins PER, CRY, CLOCK-BMAL1 is the main oscillator, in agreement with previous modelling and experimental studies. In conclusion, Principal Process Analysis is a simple-to-use method, which constitutes an additional and useful tool for analysing the complex dynamical behaviour of biological systems.

Environmental systems and management activities on the Kennedy Space Center, Merritt Island, Florida: results of a modeling workshop

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamilton, David B.; Andrews, Austin K.; Auble, Gregor T.; Ellison, Richard A.; Farmer, Adrian H.; Roelle, James E.

1985-01-01

In the early 1960's, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) began purchasing 140,000 acres on Merritt Island, Florida, in order to develop a center for space exploration. Most of this land was acquired to provide a safety and security buffer around NASA facilities. NASA, as the managing agency for the Kennedy Space Center (KSC), is responsible for preventing or controlling environmental pollution from the Federal facilities and activities at the Space Center and is committed to use all practicable means to protect and enhance the quality of the surrounding environment. The Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge was established in 1963 when management authority for undeveloped lands at KSC was transferred to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. In addition to manage for 11 Federally-listed threatened and endangered species and other resident and migratory fish and wildlife populations, the Refuge has comanagement responsibility for 19,000 acres of mosquito control impoundments and 2,500 acres of citrus groves. The Canaveral National Seashore was developed in 1975 when management of a portion of the coastal lands was transferred from NASA to the National Park Service. This multiagency jurisdiction on Merritt Island has resulted in a complex management environment. The modeling workshop described in this report was conducted May 21-25, 1984, at the Kennedy Space Center to: (1) enhance communication among the agencies with management responsibilities on Merritt Island; (2) integrate available information concerning the development, management, and ecology of Merritt Island; and (3) identify key research and monitoring needs associated with the management and use of the island's resources. The workshop was structured around the formulation of a model that would simulate primary management and use activities on Merritt Island and their effects on upland, impoundment, and estuarine vegetation and associated wildlife. The simulation model is composed of four connected submodels. The Uplands submodel calculates changes in acres and structural components of vegetation communities resulting from succession, fire, facilities development, and shuttle launch depositions, as well as the quantity and quality of surface runoff and aquifer input to an impoundment and an estuary. The Impoundment submodel next determines water quality and quantity and changes in vegetation resulting from water level manipulation and prescribed burning. The Estuary submodel than determines water quality parameters and acres of seagrass beds. Finally, the Wildlife submodel calculates habitat suitability indices for key species of interest, based on vegetation conditions in the uplands and impoundments and on several hydrologic parameters. The model represents a hypothetical management unit with 2,500 acres of uplands, a 600-acre impoundment, and a 1,500-acre section of estuary. Two management scenarios were run to analyze model behavior. The scenarios differ in the frequency of shuttle launches and prescribed burning, the extent of facilities development, the amount of land disposed waste material applied, and the nature and timing of impoundment water level control. Early in a model development project, the process of building the model is usually of greater benefit than the model itself. The model building process stimulates interaction among agencies, assists in integrating existing information, and helps identify research needs. These benefits usually accrue even in the absence of real predictive power in the resulting model. Open communication occurs among the Federal, State, and local agencies involved with activities on Merritt Island and the agencies have a cooperative working relationship. The workshop provided an opportunity for all of these agencies to meet at one time and have focused discussions on the key environmental and multiagency resource management issues. The workshop framework helped to integrate information and assumptions from a number of disciplines and agencies. This integration occurred in the computer simulation model and among workshop participants as submodel linkages were developed and scenario results discussed. A number of research needs were identified at the workshop during the model building and testing exercises and associated discussions. These needs were based on the informed judgement of researchers and managers familiar with Merritt Island or similar areas, rather than on a comprehensive literature review of sensitivity analysis of the preliminary model developed at the workshop. Some of the needs can be addressed by interpreting the results of completed studies from similar geographic areas as they relate to Merritt Island, while other will require additional research studies on Merritt Island. Major research needs associated with the Upland submodel include behavior of the near-surface aquifer, factors limiting slash pine regeneration, frequency and effects of natural fire on various cover types, cumulative effects of shuttle launches, and fate in upland soils of nitrogen and phosphorous from land applied waste material. Key Impoundment submodel needs include documentation of vegetation changes in response to altered water depth, salinity, and nutrient concentrations and better specification of the functional characteristics of impoundments as chemical filters. Important information gaps identified in the Estuary submodel include a more complete analysis of factors contributing to phytoplankton abundance, evaluation of sources of turbidity other than phytoplankton, and identification and quantification of factors limiting seagrass distribution. Primary research needs associated with the Wildlife submodel include a survey of breeding habitat, production data, and harvest data for mottled ducks; data on the emigration and immigration of juvenile mullet (and other transient fish) in the impoundment; the contribution of various seagrasses to habitat requirements of sea trout; and the effects of dissolved oxygen on survival of juvenile sea trout. Ideally, the modeling workshop process is iterative in nature. Periods between workshops are used for research, data collection, and model refinement. Each workshop integrates information collected since the last workshop and produces a more credible model that is more useful in evaluating management alternatives. Participants felt that continued application of this process would help provide ongoing integration and communication among agencies and would allow each agency's planning and management activities to be viewed within the context of an overall assessment.

Modeling snail breeding in Bioregenerative Life Support System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovalev, Vladimir; Tikhomirov, Alexander A.; Nickolay Manukovsky, D..

It is known that snail meat is a high quality food that is rich in protein. Hence, heliciculture or land snail farming spreads worldwide because it is a profitable business. The possibility to use the snails of Helix pomatia in Biological Life Support System (BLSS) was studied by Japanese Researches. In that study land snails were considered to be producers of animal protein. Also, snail breeding was an important part of waste processing, because snails were capable to eat the inedible plant biomass. As opposed to the agricultural snail farming, heliciculture in BLSS should be more carefully planned. The purpose of our work was to develop a model for snail breeding in BLSS that can predict mass flow rates in and out of snail facility. There are three linked parts in the model called “Stoichiometry”, “Population” and “Mass balance”, which are used in turn. Snail population is divided into 12 age groups from oviposition to one year. In the submodel “Stoichiometry” the individual snail growth and metabolism in each of 12 age groups are described with stoichiometry equations. Reactants are written on the left side of the equations, while products are written on the right side. Stoichiometry formulas of reactants and products consist of four chemical elements: C, H, O, N. The reactants are feed and oxygen, products are carbon dioxide, metabolic water, snail meat, shell, feces, slime and eggs. If formulas of substances in the stoichiometry equations are substituted with their molar masses, then stoichiometry equations are transformed to the equations of molar mass balance. To get the real mass balance of individual snail growth and metabolism one should multiply the value of each molar mass in the equations on the scale parameter, which is the ratio between mass of monthly consumed feed and molar mass of feed. Mass of monthly consumed feed and stoichiometry coefficients of formulas of meat, shell, feces, slime and eggs should be determined experimentally. An age structure and size of snail population are optimized on the base of individual growth and metabolic characteristics with the help of the second submodel "Population". In this simulation a daily amount of snail meat consumed by crewmembers is a guideline which specifies population productivity. Also, the daily amount of snail meat may have an optional value. Prescribed population characteristics are used in the third submodel "Mass balance" to equalize input and output mass flow rates of snail facility. In this submodel we add a water and ash to the organic masses of feed, meat, feces, shell and eggs. Moreover, masses of calcium carbonate and potable water are added to the left side of mass balance equations. Mass of calcium carbonate is distributed among shell, feces and eggs. Summarizing the twelve equations for each snail age, we get the mass balance equation for the snail facility. All simulations are performed by using Solver Add-In for Excel 2007.

Risk assessment of flood disaster and forewarning model at different spatial-temporal scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jun; Jin, Juliang; Xu, Jinchao; Guo, Qizhong; Hang, Qingfeng; Chen, Yaqian

2018-05-01

Aiming at reducing losses from flood disaster, risk assessment of flood disaster and forewarning model is studied. The model is built upon risk indices in flood disaster system, proceeding from the whole structure and its parts at different spatial-temporal scales. In this study, on the one hand, it mainly establishes the long-term forewarning model for the surface area with three levels of prediction, evaluation, and forewarning. The method of structure-adaptive back-propagation neural network on peak identification is used to simulate indices in prediction sub-model. Set pair analysis is employed to calculate the connection degrees of a single index, comprehensive index, and systematic risk through the multivariate connection number, and the comprehensive assessment is made by assessment matrixes in evaluation sub-model. The comparison judging method is adopted to divide warning degree of flood disaster on risk assessment comprehensive index with forewarning standards in forewarning sub-model and then the long-term local conditions for proposing planning schemes. On the other hand, it mainly sets up the real-time forewarning model for the spot, which introduces the real-time correction technique of Kalman filter based on hydrological model with forewarning index, and then the real-time local conditions for presenting an emergency plan. This study takes Tunxi area, Huangshan City of China, as an example. After risk assessment and forewarning model establishment and application for flood disaster at different spatial-temporal scales between the actual and simulated data from 1989 to 2008, forewarning results show that the development trend for flood disaster risk remains a decline on the whole from 2009 to 2013, despite the rise in 2011. At the macroscopic level, project and non-project measures are advanced, while at the microcosmic level, the time, place, and method are listed. It suggests that the proposed model is feasible with theory and application, thus offering a way for assessing and forewarning flood disaster risk.

Enhancements to the Economic Impact Forecast System (EIFS).

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-04-01

IU U .. A ILC.. Meww 4 """ Economia c. .- brmodc ’ The economic submodel is appropriately classified as an export base model that jointly determines...9 yes 3 Washington - 1963 State of Washington 27 no 4 Utah - 1963 State of Utah 39 yes 5 New Mexico - 1960 State of New Mexico 42 yes 6 Kansas - 1965... Mexico .311 .627 -.017 .360 .635 (13.266) (1.381) (8.507) Kansas .556 427 -.022 .616 .433 (11.270) (.854) (7156) Clinton .229 .681 -.005 .247 .677

The Application of Neutron Transport Green's Functions to Threat Scenario Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thoreson, Gregory G.; Schneider, Erich A.; Armstrong, Hirotatsu; van der Hoeven, Christopher A.

2015-02-01

Radiation detectors provide deterrence and defense against nuclear smuggling attempts by scanning vehicles, ships, and pedestrians for radioactive material. Understanding detector performance is crucial to developing novel technologies, architectures, and alarm algorithms. Detection can be modeled through radiation transport simulations; however, modeling a spanning set of threat scenarios over the full transport phase-space is computationally challenging. Previous research has demonstrated Green's functions can simulate photon detector signals by decomposing the scenario space into independently simulated submodels. This paper presents decomposition methods for neutron and time-dependent transport. As a result, neutron detector signals produced from full forward transport simulations can be efficiently reconstructed by sequential application of submodel response functions.

Attitude determination using an adaptive multiple model filtering Scheme

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lam, Quang; Ray, Surendra N.

1995-01-01

Attitude determination has been considered as a permanent topic of active research and perhaps remaining as a forever-lasting interest for spacecraft system designers. Its role is to provide a reference for controls such as pointing the directional antennas or solar panels, stabilizing the spacecraft or maneuvering the spacecraft to a new orbit. Least Square Estimation (LSE) technique was utilized to provide attitude determination for the Nimbus 6 and G. Despite its poor performance (estimation accuracy consideration), LSE was considered as an effective and practical approach to meet the urgent need and requirement back in the 70's. One reason for this poor performance associated with the LSE scheme is the lack of dynamic filtering or 'compensation'. In other words, the scheme is based totally on the measurements and no attempts were made to model the dynamic equations of motion of the spacecraft. We propose an adaptive filtering approach which employs a bank of Kalman filters to perform robust attitude estimation. The proposed approach, whose architecture is depicted, is essentially based on the latest proof on the interactive multiple model design framework to handle the unknown of the system noise characteristics or statistics. The concept fundamentally employs a bank of Kalman filter or submodel, instead of using fixed values for the system noise statistics for each submodel (per operating condition) as the traditional multiple model approach does, we use an on-line dynamic system noise identifier to 'identify' the system noise level (statistics) and update the filter noise statistics using 'live' information from the sensor model. The advanced noise identifier, whose architecture is also shown, is implemented using an advanced system identifier. To insure the robust performance for the proposed advanced system identifier, it is also further reinforced by a learning system which is implemented (in the outer loop) using neural networks to identify other unknown quantities such as spacecraft dynamics parameters, gyro biases, dynamic disturbances, or environment variations.

Complex systems approach to scientific publication and peer-review system: development of an agent-based model calibrated with empirical journal data.

PubMed

Kovanis, Michail; Porcher, Raphaël; Ravaud, Philippe; Trinquart, Ludovic

Scientific peer-review and publication systems incur a huge burden in terms of costs and time. Innovative alternatives have been proposed to improve the systems, but assessing their impact in experimental studies is not feasible at a systemic level. We developed an agent-based model by adopting a unified view of peer review and publication systems and calibrating it with empirical journal data in the biomedical and life sciences. We modeled researchers, research manuscripts and scientific journals as agents. Researchers were characterized by their scientific level and resources, manuscripts by their scientific value, and journals by their reputation and acceptance or rejection thresholds. These state variables were used in submodels for various processes such as production of articles, submissions to target journals, in-house and external peer review, and resubmissions. We collected data for a sample of biomedical and life sciences journals regarding acceptance rates, resubmission patterns and total number of published articles. We adjusted submodel parameters so that the agent-based model outputs fit these empirical data. We simulated 105 journals, 25,000 researchers and 410,000 manuscripts over 10 years. A mean of 33,600 articles were published per year; 19 % of submitted manuscripts remained unpublished. The mean acceptance rate was 21 % after external peer review and rejection rate 32 % after in-house review; 15 % publications resulted from the first submission, 47 % the second submission and 20 % the third submission. All decisions in the model were mainly driven by the scientific value, whereas journal targeting and persistence in resubmission defined whether a manuscript would be published or abandoned after one or many rejections. This agent-based model may help in better understanding the determinants of the scientific publication and peer-review systems. It may also help in assessing and identifying the most promising alternative systems of peer review.

Attitude determination using an adaptive multiple model filtering Scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, Quang; Ray, Surendra N.

1995-05-01

Attitude determination has been considered as a permanent topic of active research and perhaps remaining as a forever-lasting interest for spacecraft system designers. Its role is to provide a reference for controls such as pointing the directional antennas or solar panels, stabilizing the spacecraft or maneuvering the spacecraft to a new orbit. Least Square Estimation (LSE) technique was utilized to provide attitude determination for the Nimbus 6 and G. Despite its poor performance (estimation accuracy consideration), LSE was considered as an effective and practical approach to meet the urgent need and requirement back in the 70's. One reason for this poor performance associated with the LSE scheme is the lack of dynamic filtering or 'compensation'. In other words, the scheme is based totally on the measurements and no attempts were made to model the dynamic equations of motion of the spacecraft. We propose an adaptive filtering approach which employs a bank of Kalman filters to perform robust attitude estimation. The proposed approach, whose architecture is depicted, is essentially based on the latest proof on the interactive multiple model design framework to handle the unknown of the system noise characteristics or statistics. The concept fundamentally employs a bank of Kalman filter or submodel, instead of using fixed values for the system noise statistics for each submodel (per operating condition) as the traditional multiple model approach does, we use an on-line dynamic system noise identifier to 'identify' the system noise level (statistics) and update the filter noise statistics using 'live' information from the sensor model. The advanced noise identifier, whose architecture is also shown, is implemented using an advanced system identifier. To insure the robust performance for the proposed advanced system identifier, it is also further reinforced by a learning system which is implemented (in the outer loop) using neural networks to identify other unknown quantities such as spacecraft dynamics parameters, gyro biases, dynamic disturbances, or environment variations.

Regional and climate forcing on forage fish and apex predators in the California Current: new insights from a fully coupled ecosystem model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiechter, J.; Rose, K.; Curchitser, E. N.; Huckstadt, L. A.; Costa, D. P.; Hedstrom, K.

2016-12-01

A fully coupled ecosystem model is used to describe the impact of regional and climate variability on changes in abundance and distribution of forage fish and apex predators in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. The ecosystem model consists of a biogeochemical submodel (NEMURO) embedded in a regional ocean circulation submodel (ROMS), and both coupled with a multi-species individual-based submodel for two forage fish species (sardine and anchovy) and one apex predator (California sea lion). Sardine and anchovy are specifically included in the model as they exhibit significant interannual and decadal variability in population abundances, and are commonly found in the diet of California sea lions. Output from the model demonstrates how regional-scale (i.e., upwelling intensity) and basin-scale (i.e., PDO and ENSO signals) physical processes control species distributions and predator-prey interactions on interannual time scales. The results also illustrate how variability in environmental conditions leads to the formation of seasonal hotspots where prey and predator spatially overlap. While specifically focused on sardine, anchovy and sea lions, the modeling framework presented here can provide new insights into the physical and biological mechanisms controlling trophic interactions in the California Current, or other regions where similar end-to-end ecosystem models may be implemented.

A microscale three-dimensional urban energy balance model for studying surface temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krayenhoff, E. Scott; Voogt, James A.

2007-06-01

A microscale three-dimensional (3-D) urban energy balance model, Temperatures of Urban Facets in 3-D (TUF-3D), is developed to predict urban surface temperatures for a variety of surface geometries and properties, weather conditions, and solar angles. The surface is composed of plane-parallel facets: roofs, walls, and streets, which are further sub-divided into identical square patches, resulting in a 3-D raster-type model geometry. The model code is structured into radiation, conduction and convection sub-models. The radiation sub-model uses the radiosity approach and accounts for multiple reflections and shading of direct solar radiation. Conduction is solved by finite differencing of the heat conduction equation, and convection is modelled by empirically relating patch heat transfer coefficients to the momentum forcing and the building morphology. The radiation and conduction sub-models are tested individually against measurements, and the complete model is tested against full-scale urban surface temperature and energy balance observations. Modelled surface temperatures perform well at both the facet-average and the sub-facet scales given the precision of the observations and the uncertainties in the model inputs. The model has several potential applications, such as the calculation of radiative loads, and the investigation of effective thermal anisotropy (when combined with a sensor-view model).

Three-dimensional simulation of the motion of a single particle under a simulated turbulent velocity field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreno-Casas, P. A.; Bombardelli, F. A.

2015-12-01

A 3D Lagrangian particle tracking model is coupled to a 3D channel velocity field to simulate the saltation motion of a single sediment particle moving in saltation mode. The turbulent field is a high-resolution three dimensional velocity field that reproduces a by-pass transition to turbulence on a flat plate due to free-stream turbulence passing above de plate. In order to reduce computational costs, a decoupled approached is used, i.e., the turbulent flow is simulated independently from the tracking model, and then used to feed the 3D Lagrangian particle model. The simulations are carried using the point-particle approach. The particle tracking model contains three sub-models, namely, particle free-flight, a post-collision velocity and bed representation sub-models. The free-flight sub-model considers the action of the following forces: submerged weight, non-linear drag, lift, virtual mass, Magnus and Basset forces. The model also includes the effect of particle angular velocity. The post-collision velocities are obtained by applying conservation of angular and linear momentum. The complete model was validated with experimental results from literature within the sand range. Results for particle velocity time series and distribution of particle turbulent intensities are presented.

A teleonomic model describing performance (body, milk and intake) during growth and over repeated reproductive cycles throughout the lifespan of dairy cattle. 1. Trajectories of life function priorities and genetic scaling.

PubMed

Martin, O; Sauvant, D

2010-12-01

The prediction of the control of nutrient partitioning, particularly energy, is a major issue in modelling dairy cattle performance. The proportions of energy channelled to physiological functions (growth, maintenance, gestation and lactation) change as the animal ages and reproduces, and according to its genotype and nutritional environment. This is the first of two papers describing a teleonomic model of individual performance during growth and over repeated reproductive cycles throughout the lifespan of dairy cattle. The conceptual framework is based on the coupling of a regulating sub-model providing teleonomic drives to govern the work of an operating sub-model scaled with genetic parameters. The regulating sub-model describes the dynamic partitioning of a mammal female's priority between life functions targeted to growth (G), ageing (A), balance of body reserves (R) and nutrient supply of the unborn (U), newborn (N) and suckling (S) calf. The so-called GARUNS dynamic pattern defines a trajectory of relative priorities, goal directed towards the survival of the individual for the continuation of the specie. The operating sub-model describes changes in body weight (BW) and composition, foetal growth, milk yield and composition and food intake in dairy cows throughout their lifespan, that is, during growth, over successive reproductive cycles and through ageing. This dynamic pattern of performance defines a reference trajectory of a cow under normal husbandry conditions and feed regimen. Genetic parameters are incorporated in the model to scale individual performance and simulate differences within and between breeds. The model was calibrated for dairy cows with literature data. The model was evaluated by comparison with simulations of previously published empirical equations of BW, body condition score, milk yield and composition and feed intake. This evaluation showed that the model adequately simulates these production variables throughout the lifespan, and across a range of dairy cattle genotypes.

An integrated model for assessing both crop productivity and agricultural water resources at a large scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okada, M.; Sakurai, G.; Iizumi, T.; Yokozawa, M.

2012-12-01

Agricultural production utilizes regional resources (e.g. river water and ground water) as well as local resources (e.g. temperature, rainfall, solar energy). Future climate changes and increasing demand due to population increases and economic developments would intensively affect the availability of water resources for agricultural production. While many studies assessed the impacts of climate change on agriculture, there are few studies that dynamically account for changes in water resources and crop production. This study proposes an integrated model for assessing both crop productivity and agricultural water resources at a large scale. Also, the irrigation management to subseasonal variability in weather and crop response varies for each region and each crop. To deal with such variations, we used the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique to quantify regional-specific parameters associated with crop growth and irrigation water estimations. We coupled a large-scale crop model (Sakurai et al. 2012), with a global water resources model, H08 (Hanasaki et al. 2008). The integrated model was consisting of five sub-models for the following processes: land surface, crop growth, river routing, reservoir operation, and anthropogenic water withdrawal. The land surface sub-model was based on a watershed hydrology model, SWAT (Neitsch et al. 2009). Surface and subsurface runoffs simulated by the land surface sub-model were input to the river routing sub-model of the H08 model. A part of regional water resources available for agriculture, simulated by the H08 model, was input as irrigation water to the land surface sub-model. The timing and amount of irrigation water was simulated at a daily step. The integrated model reproduced the observed streamflow in an individual watershed. Additionally, the model accurately reproduced the trends and interannual variations of crop yields. To demonstrate the usefulness of the integrated model, we compared two types of impact assessment of climate change on crop productivity in a watershed. The first was carried out by the large-scale crop model alone. The second was carried out by the integrated model of the large-scale crop model and the H08 model. The former projected that changes in temperature and precipitation due to future climate change would give rise to increasing the water stress in crops. Nevertheless, the latter projected that the increasing amount of agricultural water resources in the watershed would supply sufficient amount of water for irrigation, consequently reduce the water stress. The integrated model demonstrated the importance of taking into account the water circulation in watershed when predicting the regional crop production.

Reconstruction of the Eemian climate using a fully coupled Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rybak, Oleg; Volodin, Evgeny; Morozova, Polina; Huybrechts, Philippe

2017-04-01

Climate of the Last Interglacial (LIG) between ca. 130 and 115 kyr BP is thought to be a good analogue for future climate warming. Though the driving mechanisms of the past and current climate evolution differ, analysis of the LIG climate may provide important insights for projections of future environmental changes. We do not know properly what was spatial distribution and magnitude of surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies with respect to present. Sparse proxy data are attributed mostly to the continental margins, internal areas of ice sheets and particular regions of the World Ocean. Combining mathematical modeling and indirect evidence can help to identify driving mechanisms and feed-backs which formed climatic conditions of the LIG. In order to reproduce the LIG climate, we carried out transient numerical experiments using a fully coupled Earth System Model (ESM) consisting of an AO GCM, which includes decription of the biosphere, atmospheric and oceanic chemistry ets. (INMCM), developed in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (Moscow, Russia) and the models of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrISM and AISM, Vrije Uninersiteit Brussel, Belgium). Though the newest version of the INMCM has rather high spatial resolution, it canot be used in long transient numerical experimemts because of high computational demand. Coupling of the GrISM and AISM to the low resolution version of the INMCM is complicated by essential differences in spatial and temporal scales of cryospheric, atmosphere and the ocean components of the ESM (spatial resolution 5˚×4˚, 21 vertical layers in the atmospheric block, 2.5°×2°, 6 min. temporal resolution; 33 vertical layers in the oceanic block; 20×20 km, 51 vertical layers and 1 yr temporal resolution in the GrISM and AISM). We apply two different coupling strategies. AISM is incorporated into the ESM via using procedures of resampling and interpolation of the input fields of annually averaged air surface temperatures and precipitation fields generated by the INMCM. To provide interactive coupling of the INMCM and the GrISM, we employ a special energy- and water balance model (EWBM-G), which serves as a buffer providing effective data exchange between sub-models. EWBM-G operates in a rectangle domain including Greenland and calculates annual surface mass balance (further transferred as an external forcing to the GrISM) and fresh water flux (transferred to the oceanic block of the INMCM). Orbital parameters of the LIG were set with 1 kyr step with further interpolation to 100 years. Assuming concentrations of greenhouse gases during the LIG were not very much different from the preindustrial values, this potential forcing was neglected. Climatic block of the ESM was called every 100 model years to follow changes in orbital forcing. AISM and GrISM were asynchronously coupled to sub-models of the atmosphere and the ocean with the ratio of model years as 100 to 1. Obtained fields of deviations of air surface temperature from preindustrial values correspond in general to the estimates made in earlier studies. Evaluated contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to the global sea level rise (approximately 2 m) supports the newest estimates based on model results and proxy data analysis.

Demonstration of a fully-coupled end-to-end model for small pelagic fish using sardine and anchovy in the California Current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, Kenneth A.; Fiechter, Jerome; Curchitser, Enrique N.; Hedstrom, Kate; Bernal, Miguel; Creekmore, Sean; Haynie, Alan; Ito, Shin-ichi; Lluch-Cota, Salvador; Megrey, Bernard A.; Edwards, Chris A.; Checkley, Dave; Koslow, Tony; McClatchie, Sam; Werner, Francisco; MacCall, Alec; Agostini, Vera

2015-11-01

We describe and document an end-to-end model of anchovy and sardine population dynamics in the California Current as a proof of principle that such coupled models can be developed and implemented. The end-to-end model is 3-dimensional, time-varying, and multispecies, and consists of four coupled submodels: hydrodynamics, Eulerian nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton (NPZ), an individual-based full life cycle anchovy and sardine submodel, and an agent-based fishing fleet submodel. A predator roughly mimicking albacore was included as individuals that consumed anchovy and sardine. All submodels were coded within the ROMS open-source community model, and used the same resolution spatial grid and were all solved simultaneously to allow for possible feedbacks among the submodels. We used a super-individual approach and solved the coupled models on a distributed memory parallel computer, both of which created challenging but resolvable bookkeeping challenges. The anchovy and sardine growth, mortality, reproduction, and movement, and the fishing fleet submodel, were each calibrated using simplified grids before being inserted into the full end-to-end model. An historical simulation of 1959-2008 was performed, and the latter 45 years analyzed. Sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) for the historical simulation showed strong horizontal gradients and multi-year scale temporal oscillations related to various climate indices (PDO, NPGO), and both showed responses to ENSO variability. Simulated total phytoplankton was lower during strong El Nino events and higher for the strong 1999 La Nina event. The three zooplankton groups generally corresponded to the spatial and temporal variation in simulated total phytoplankton. Simulated biomasses of anchovy and sardine were within the historical range of observed biomasses but predicted biomasses showed much less inter-annual variation. Anomalies of annual biomasses of anchovy and sardine showed a switch in the mid-1990s from anchovy to sardine dominance. Simulated averaged weights- and lengths-at-age did not vary much across decades, and movement patterns showed anchovy located close to the coast while sardine were more dispersed and farther offshore. Albacore predation on anchovy and sardine was concentrated near the coast in two pockets near the Monterey Bay area and equatorward of Cape Mendocino. Predation mortality from fishing boats was concentrated where sardine age-1 and older individuals were located close to one of the five ports. We demonstrated that it is feasible to perform multi-decadal simulations of a fully-coupled end-to-end model, and that this can be done for a model that follows individual fish and boats on the same 3-dimensional grid as the hydrodynamics. Our focus here was on proof of principle and our results showed that we solved the major technical, bookkeeping, and computational issues. We discuss the next steps to increase computational speed and to include important biological differences between anchovy and sardine. In a companion paper (Fiechter et al., 2015), we further analyze the historical simulation in the context of the various hypotheses that have been proposed to explain the sardine and anchovy cycles.

Characterizing Feedback Control Mechanisms in Nonlinear Microbial Models of Soil Organic Matter Decomposition by Stability Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgiou, K.; Tang, J.; Riley, W. J.; Torn, M. S.

2014-12-01

Soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition is regulated by biotic and abiotic processes. Feedback interactions between such processes may act to dampen oscillatory responses to perturbations from equilibrium. Indeed, although biological oscillations have been observed in small-scale laboratory incubations, the overlying behavior at the plot-scale exhibits a relatively stable response to disturbances in input rates and temperature. Recent studies have demonstrated the ability of microbial models to capture nonlinear feedbacks in SOM decomposition that linear Century-type models are unable to reproduce, such as soil priming in response to increased carbon input. However, these microbial models often exhibit strong oscillatory behavior that is deemed unrealistic. The inherently nonlinear dynamics of SOM decomposition have important implications for global climate-carbon and carbon-concentration feedbacks. It is therefore imperative to represent these dynamics in Earth System Models (ESMs) by introducing sub-models that accurately represent microbial and abiotic processes. In the present study we explore, both analytically and numerically, four microbe-enabled model structures of varying levels of complexity. The most complex model combines microbial physiology, a non-linear mineral sorption isotherm, and enzyme dynamics. Based on detailed stability analysis of the nonlinear dynamics, we calculate the system modes as functions of model parameters. This dependence provides insight into the source of state oscillations. We find that feedback mechanisms that emerge from careful representation of enzyme and mineral interactions, with parameter values in a prescribed range, are critical for both maintaining system stability and capturing realistic responses to disturbances. Corroborating and expanding upon the results of recent studies, we explain the emergence of oscillatory responses and discuss the appropriate microbe-enabled model structure for inclusion in ESMs.

Classification of hydrological parameter sensitivity and evaluation of parameter transferability across 431 US MOPEX basins

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ren, Huiying; Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi

The Community Land Model (CLM) represents physical, chemical, and biological processes of the terrestrial ecosystems that interact with climate across a range of spatial and temporal scales. As CLM includes numerous sub-models and associated parameters, the high-dimensional parameter space presents a formidable challenge for quantifying uncertainty and improving Earth system predictions needed to assess environmental changes and risks. This study aims to evaluate the potential of transferring hydrologic model parameters in CLM through sensitivity analyses and classification across watersheds from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) in the United States. The sensitivity of CLM-simulated water and energy fluxes to hydrologicalmore » parameters across 431 MOPEX basins are first examined using an efficient stochastic sampling-based sensitivity analysis approach. Linear, interaction, and high-order nonlinear impacts are all identified via statistical tests and stepwise backward removal parameter screening. The basins are then classified accordingly to their parameter sensitivity patterns (internal attributes), as well as their hydrologic indices/attributes (external hydrologic factors) separately, using a Principal component analyses (PCA) and expectation-maximization (EM) –based clustering approach. Similarities and differences among the parameter sensitivity-based classification system (S-Class), the hydrologic indices-based classification (H-Class), and the Koppen climate classification systems (K-Class) are discussed. Within each S-class with similar parameter sensitivity characteristics, similar inversion modeling setups can be used for parameter calibration, and the parameters and their contribution or significance to water and energy cycling may also be more transferrable. This classification study provides guidance on identifiable parameters, and on parameterization and inverse model design for CLM but the methodology is applicable to other models. Inverting parameters at representative sites belonging to the same class can significantly reduce parameter calibration efforts.« less

A Theoretical Math Model for Projecting AIS3+ Thoracic Injury for Belted Occupants in Frontal Impact.

PubMed

Laituri, Tony R; Sullivan, Donald; Sullivan, Kaye; Prasad, Priya

2004-11-01

A theoretical math model was created to assess the net effect of aging populations versus evolving system designs from the standpoint of thoracic injury potential. The model was used to project the next twenty-five years of thoracic injuries in Canada. The choice of Canada was topical because rulemaking for CMVSS 208 has been proposed recently. The study was limited to properly-belted, front-outboard, adult occupants in 11-1 o'clock frontal crashes. Moreover, only AIS3+ thoracic injury potential was considered. The research consisted of four steps. First, sub-models were developed and integrated. The sub-models were made for numerous real-world effects including population growth, crash involvement, fleet penetration of various systems (via system introduction, vehicle production, and vehicle attrition), and attendant injury risk estimation. Second, existing NASS data were used to estimate the number of AIS3+ chest-injured drivers in Canada in 2001. This served as data for model validation. Third, the projection model was correlated favorably with the 2001 field estimate. Finally, for the scenario that 2004-2030 model-year systems would perform like 2000-2003 model-year systems, a projection was made to estimate the long-term effect of eliminating designs that would not comply with the proposed CMVSS 208. The 2006-2030-projection result for this scenario: 764 occupants would benefit from the proposed regulation. This projection was considered to be conservative because future innovation was not considered, and, to date, the fleet's average chest deflections have been decreasing. The model also predicted that, through 2016, the effect of improving system performance would be more influential than the population-aging effect; thereafter, the population-aging effect would somewhat counteract the effect of improving system performance. This theoretical math model can provide insights for both designers and rule makers.

Hybrid model analysis of intra-aortic balloon pump performance as a function of ventricular and circulatory parameters.

PubMed

Ferrari, Gianfranco; Khir, Ashraf W; Fresiello, Libera; Di Molfetta, Arianna; Kozarski, Maciej

2011-09-01

We investigated the effects of the intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) on endocardial viability ratio (EVR), cardiac output (CO), end-systolic (V(es)) and end-diastolic (V(ed)) ventricular volumes, total coronary blood flow (TCBF), and ventricular energetics (external work [EW], pressure-volume area [PVA]) under different ventricular (E(max) and diastolic stiffness) and circulatory (arterial compliance) parameters. We derived a hybrid model from a computational model, which is based on merging computational and hydraulic submodels. The lumped parameter computational submodel consists of left and right hearts and systemic, pulmonary, and coronary circulations. The hydraulic submodel includes part of the systemic arterial circulation, essentially a silicone rubber tube representing the aorta, which contains a 40-mL IAB. EVR, CO, V(es), and V(ed), TCBF and ventricular energetics (EW, PVA) were analyzed against the ranges of left ventricular E(max) (0.3-0.5-1 mm Hg/cm(3)) and diastolic stiffness V(stiffness) (≈0.08 and ≈0.3 mm Hg/cm(3), obtained by changing diastolic stiffness constant) and systemic arterial compliance (1.8-2.5 cm(3)/mm Hg). All experiments were performed comparing the selected variables before and during IABP assistance. Increasing E(maxl) from 0.5 to 2 mm Hg/cm(3) resulted in IABP assistance producing lower percentage changes in the selected variables. The changes in ventricular diastolic stiffness strongly influence both absolute value of EVR and its variations during IABP (71 and 65% for lower and higher arterial compliance, respectively). V(ed) and V(es) changes are rather small but higher for lower E(max) and higher V(stiffness). Lower E(max) and higher V(stiffness) resulted in higher TCBF and CO during IABP assistance (∼35 and 10%, respectively). The use of this hybrid model allows for testing real devices in realistic, stable, and repeatable circulatory conditions. Specifically, the presented results show that IABP performance is dependent, at least in part, on left ventricular filling, ejection characteristics, and arterial compliance. It is possible in this way to simulate patient-specific conditions and predict the IABP performance at different values of the circulatory or ventricular parameters. Further work is required to study the conditions for heart recovery modeling, baroreceptor controls, and physiological feedbacks. © 2011, Copyright the Authors. Artificial Organs © 2011, International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Application of Wavelet-Based Methods for Accelerating Multi-Time-Scale Simulation of Bistable Heterogeneous Catalysis

DOE PAGES

Gur, Sourav; Frantziskonis, George N.; Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; ...

2017-02-16

Here, we report results from a numerical study of multi-time-scale bistable dynamics for CO oxidation on a catalytic surface in a flowing, well-mixed gas stream. The problem is posed in terms of surface and gas-phase submodels that dynamically interact in the presence of stochastic perturbations, reflecting the impact of molecular-scale fluctuations on the surface and turbulence in the gas. Wavelet-based methods are used to encode and characterize the temporal dynamics produced by each submodel and detect the onset of sudden state shifts (bifurcations) caused by nonlinear kinetics. When impending state shifts are detected, a more accurate but computationally expensive integrationmore » scheme can be used. This appears to make it possible, at least in some cases, to decrease the net computational burden associated with simulating multi-time-scale, nonlinear reacting systems by limiting the amount of time in which the more expensive integration schemes are required. Critical to achieving this is being able to detect unstable temporal transitions such as the bistable shifts in the example problem considered here. Lastly, our results indicate that a unique wavelet-based algorithm based on the Lipschitz exponent is capable of making such detections, even under noisy conditions, and may find applications in critical transition detection problems beyond catalysis.« less

An eco-epidemiological system with infected prey and predator subject to the weak Allee effect.

PubMed

Sasmal, Sourav Kumar; Chattopadhyay, Joydev

2013-12-01

In this article, we propose a general prey–predator model with disease in prey and predator subject to the weak Allee effects. We make the following assumptions: (i) infected prey competes for resources but does not contribute to reproduction; and (ii) in comparison to the consumption of the susceptible prey, consumption of infected prey would contribute less or negatively to the growth of predator. Based on these assumptions, we provide basic dynamic properties for the full model and corresponding submodels with and without the Allee effects. By comparing the disease free submodels (susceptible prey–predator model) with and without the Allee effects, we conclude that the Allee effects can create or destroy the interior attractors. This enables us to obtain the complete dynamics of the full model and conclude that the model has only one attractor (only susceptible prey survives or susceptible-infected coexist), or two attractors (bi-stability with only susceptible prey and susceptible prey–predator coexist or susceptible prey-infected prey coexists and susceptible prey–predator coexist). This model does not support the coexistence of susceptible-infected-predator, which is caused by the assumption that infected population contributes less or are harmful to the growth of predator in comparison to the consumption of susceptible prey.

An Integrated Framework for Model-Based Distributed Diagnosis and Prognosis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bregon, Anibal; Daigle, Matthew J.; Roychoudhury, Indranil

2012-01-01

Diagnosis and prognosis are necessary tasks for system reconfiguration and fault-adaptive control in complex systems. Diagnosis consists of detection, isolation and identification of faults, while prognosis consists of prediction of the remaining useful life of systems. This paper presents a novel integrated framework for model-based distributed diagnosis and prognosis, where system decomposition is used to enable the diagnosis and prognosis tasks to be performed in a distributed way. We show how different submodels can be automatically constructed to solve the local diagnosis and prognosis problems. We illustrate our approach using a simulated four-wheeled rover for different fault scenarios. Our experiments show that our approach correctly performs distributed fault diagnosis and prognosis in an efficient and robust manner.

The development and preliminary application of an invariant coupled diffusion and chemistry model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hilst, G. R.; Donaldson, C. DUP.; Teske, M.; Contiliano, R.; Freiberg, J.

1973-01-01

In many real-world pollution chemical reaction problems, the rate of reaction problems, the rate of reaction may be greatly affected by unmixedness. An approximate closure scheme for a chemical kinetic submodel which conforms to the principles of invariant modeling and which accounts for the effects of inhomogeneous mixing over a wide range of conditions has been developed. This submodel has been coupled successfully with invariant turbulence and diffusion models, permitting calculation of two-dimensional diffusion of two reacting (isothermally) chemical species. The initial calculations indicate the ozone reactions in the wake of stratospheric aircraft will be substantially affected by the rate of diffusion of ozone into the wake, and in the early wake, by unmixedness.

Counter-intuitive quasi-periodic motion in the autonomous vibration of cracked Timoshenko beams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandon, J. A.; Abraham, O. N. L.

1995-08-01

The time domain behaviour of a cracked Timoshenko beam is constructed by alternation of two linear models corresponding to the open and closed condition of the crack. It might be expected that a response which is composed of the alternation of two systems with different properties would extinguish the periodicities of the constituent sub-models. The numerical studies presented illustrate the perpetuation of these features without showing any evidence for the creation of periodicities based on a common assumption of the mean period of a bilinear model.

[Estimation model for daily transpiration of greenhouse muskmelon in its vegetative growth period].

PubMed

Zhang, Da-Long; Li, Jian-Ming; Wu, Pu-Te; Li, Wei-Li; Zhao, Zhi-Hua; Xu, Fei; Li, Jun

2013-07-01

For developing an estimation method of muskmelon transpiration in greenhouse, an estimation model for the daily transpiration of greenhouse muskmelon in its vegetative growth period was established, based on the greenhouse environmental parameters, muskmelon growth and development parameters, and soil moisture parameters. According to the specific environment in greenhouse, the item of aerodynamics in Penman-Monteith equation was modified, and the greenhouse environmental sub-model suitable for calculating the reference crop evapotranspiration in greenhouse was deduced. The crop factor sub-model was established with the leaf area index as independent variable, and the form of the model was linear function. The soil moisture sub-model was established with the soil relative effective moisture content as independent variable, and the form of the model was logarithmic function. With interval sowing, the model parameters were estimated and analyzed, according to the measurement data of different sowing dates in a year. The prediction accuracy of the model for sufficient irrigation and water-saving irrigation was verified, according to measurement data when the relative soil moisture content was 80%, 70%, and 60%, and the mean relative error was 11.5%, 16.2% , and 16.9% respectively. The model was a beneficial exploration for the application of Penman-Monteith equation under greenhouse environment and water-saving irrigation, having good application foreground and popularization value.

3D micro-crack propagation simulation at enamel/adhesive interface using FE submodeling and element death techniques.

PubMed

Liu, Heng-Liang; Lin, Chun-Li; Sun, Ming-Tsung; Chang, Yen-Hsiang

2010-06-01

This study investigates micro-crack propagation at the enamel/adhesive interface using finite element (FE) submodeling and element death techniques. A three-dimensional (3D) FE macro-model of the enamel/adhesive/ceramic subjected to shear bond testing was generated and analyzed. A 3D micro-model with interfacial bonding structure was constructed at the upper enamel/adhesive interface where the stress concentration was found from the macro-model results. The morphology of this interfacial bonding structure (i.e., resin tag) was assigned based on resin tag geometry and enamel rod arrangement from a scanning electron microscopy micrograph. The boundary conditions for the micro-model were determined from the macro-model results. A custom iterative code combined with the element death technique was used to calculate the micro-crack propagation. Parallel experiments were performed to validate this FE simulation. The stress concentration within the adhesive occurred mainly at the upper corner near the enamel/adhesive interface and the resin tag base. A simulated fracture path was found at the resin tag base along the enamel/adhesive interface. A morphological observation of the fracture patterns obtained from in vitro testing corresponded with the simulation results. This study shows that the FE submodeling and element death techniques could be used to simulate the 3D micro-stress pattern and the crack propagation noted at the enamel/adhesive interface.

Impact of influent data frequency and model structure on the quality of WWTP model calibration and uncertainty.

PubMed

Cierkens, Katrijn; Plano, Salvatore; Benedetti, Lorenzo; Weijers, Stefan; de Jonge, Jarno; Nopens, Ingmar

2012-01-01

Application of activated sludge models (ASMs) to full-scale wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) is still hampered by the problem of model calibration of these over-parameterised models. This either requires expert knowledge or global methods that explore a large parameter space. However, a better balance in structure between the submodels (ASM, hydraulic, aeration, etc.) and improved quality of influent data result in much smaller calibration efforts. In this contribution, a methodology is proposed that links data frequency and model structure to calibration quality and output uncertainty. It is composed of defining the model structure, the input data, an automated calibration, confidence interval computation and uncertainty propagation to the model output. Apart from the last step, the methodology is applied to an existing WWTP using three models differing only in the aeration submodel. A sensitivity analysis was performed on all models, allowing the ranking of the most important parameters to select in the subsequent calibration step. The aeration submodel proved very important to get good NH(4) predictions. Finally, the impact of data frequency was explored. Lowering the frequency resulted in larger deviations of parameter estimates from their default values and larger confidence intervals. Autocorrelation due to high frequency calibration data has an opposite effect on the confidence intervals. The proposed methodology opens doors to facilitate and improve calibration efforts and to design measurement campaigns.

Effects of flood control alternatives on fish and wildlife resources of the Malheur-Harney lakes basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamilton, David B.; Auble, Gregor T.; Ellison, Richard A.; Roelle, James E.

1985-01-01

Malheur Lake is the largest freshwater marsh in the western contiguous United States and is one of the main management units of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in southeastern Oregon. The marsh provides excellent waterfowl production habitat as well as vital migration habitats for birds in the Pacific flyway. Water shortages have typically been a problem in this semiarid area; however, record snowfalls and cool summers have recently caused Malheur Lake to rise to its highest level in recorded history. This has resulted in the loss of approximately 57,000 acres of important wildlife habitat as well as extensive flooding of local ranches, roads, and railroad lines. Because of the importance of the Refuge, any water management plan for the Malheur-Harney Lakes Basin needs to consider the impact of management alternatives on the hydrology of Malheur Lake. The facilitated modeling workshop described in this report was conducted January 14-18, 1985, under the joint sponsorship of the Portland Ecological Services Field Office and the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge, Region 1, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS). The Portland Field Office is responsible for FWS reporting requirements on Federal water resource projects while the Refuge staff has management responsibility for much of the land affected by high water levels in the Malheur-Harney Lakes Basin. The primary objective of the workshop was to begin gathering and analyzing information concerning potential fish and wildlife impacts, needs, and opportunities associated with proposed U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (COE) flood control alternatives for Malheur Lake. The workshop was structured around the formulation of a computer model that would simulate the hydrologic effects of the various alternatives and any concommitant changes in vegetation communities and wildlife use patterns. The simulation model is composed of three connected submodels. The Hydrology submodel calculates changes in lake volume, elevation, and surface area, as well as changes in water quality, that result from the proposed water management projects (upstream storage, upstream diversions, drainage canals) and the no action alternative. The Vegetation submodel determines associated changes in the areal extent of wetland and upland vegetation communities. Finally, the Wildlife submodel calculates indices of abundance or habitat suitability for colonial nesting birds (great egret, double-crested cormorant, white-faced ibis), greater sandhill crane, diving ducks, tundra swan, dabbling ducks, and Canada goose based on hydrologic and vegetation conditions. The model represents the Malheur-Harney Lakes Basin, but provides water quantity and quality indicators associated with additional flows that might occur in the Malheur River Basin. Several management scenarios, representing various flood control alternatives and assumptions concerning future runoff, were run to analyze model behavior. Scenario results are not intended as an analysis of all potential management actions or assumptions concerning future runoff. Rather, they demonstrate the type of analysis that could be conducted if the model was sufficiently refined and tested. Early in a model development project, the process of building the model is usually of greater benefit than the model itself. The model building process stimulates interaction among agencies, assists in integrating existing information, and helps identify research needs. These benefits usually accrue even in the absence of real predictive power in the resulting model. This workshop initiated interaction among the primary State and Federal resource and development agencies in a nonadversarial forum. The exchange of information and expertise among agencies provided the FWS with the best information currently available for use in the Planning Aid Letter it will develop at the Reconnaissance state of the COE study. If the COE subsequently initiates a Feasability Study, this information will be refined further and will aid the FWS in preparing its Coordination Act Report on any flood control alternative proposed by the COE. The model building and testing process also helped identify model limitations and more general information needs that should be evaluated for further study prior to preparation of an FWS Coordination Act Report. Major needs associated with the Hydrology submodel include a more detailed representation of hydrologic units (separately consider Harney Lake, Mud Lake, and Malheur Lake or the three hydrological units within Malheur Lake, rather than a combined lake system) and explicitly representation of groundwater storage and discharge in water budget calculations. A better representation of the hydrological units will require more detailed topographic data for the basin, capacity-elevation and elevation-surface area curves for each unit, and better water flow data between the units. Additional water quality parameters and constraints on proposed canal operation due to conditions in the Malheur River might also be added. Key Vegetation submodel needs include fine-tuning existing vegetation relationships in the model and adding relationships to address the influence of historical conditions on vegetation development, effects of very rapid changes in lake level, effects of wildlife populations (e.g., carp, muskrat), responses of vegetation to habitat management actions (e.g, haying, grazing, burning), and better representation of sago pondweed dynamics. A complementary geographic information system might also be developed for spatial analyses. Major needs that should be evaluated for the Wildlife submodel include addition of other wildlife species that have important effects on habitat on the Refuge (e.g., carp, muskrat) and consideration of additional life-cycle requisites and controlling variable for species presently in the model. Some of these limitations could perhaps be overcome if historical data on habitat conditions were developed to use with historical data on wildlife populations.

Solutions of the chemical kinetic equations for initially inhomogeneous mixtures.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hilst, G. R.

1973-01-01

Following the recent discussions by O'Brien (1971) and Donaldson and Hilst (1972) of the effects of inhomogeneous mixing and turbulent diffusion on simple chemical reaction rates, the present report provides a more extensive analysis of when inhomogeneous mixing has a significant effect on chemical reaction rates. The analysis is then extended to the development of an approximate chemical sub-model which provides much improved predictions of chemical reaction rates over a wide range of inhomogeneities and pathological distributions of the concentrations of the reacting chemical species. In particular, the development of an approximate representation of the third-order correlations of the joint concentration fluctuations permits closure of the chemical sub-model at the level of the second-order moments of these fluctuations and the mean concentrations.

An acoustic-convective splitting-based approach for the Kapila two-phase flow model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eikelder, M.F.P. ten, E-mail: m.f.p.teneikelder@tudelft.nl; Eindhoven University of Technology, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, P.O. Box 513, 5600 MB Eindhoven; Daude, F.

In this paper we propose a new acoustic-convective splitting-based numerical scheme for the Kapila five-equation two-phase flow model. The splitting operator decouples the acoustic waves and convective waves. The resulting two submodels are alternately numerically solved to approximate the solution of the entire model. The Lagrangian form of the acoustic submodel is numerically solved using an HLLC-type Riemann solver whereas the convective part is approximated with an upwind scheme. The result is a simple method which allows for a general equation of state. Numerical computations are performed for standard two-phase shock tube problems. A comparison is made with a non-splittingmore » approach. The results are in good agreement with reference results and exact solutions.« less

Modeling the Impact of Energy and Water Prices on Reservoir and Aquifer Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dale, L. L.; Vicuna, S.; Faybishenko, B.

2008-12-01

Climate change and polices to limit carbon emissions are likely to increase energy and water scarcity and raise prices. These price impacts affect the way that reservoirs and aquifers should be managed to maximize the value of water and energy outputs. In this paper, we use a model of storage in a specific region to illustrate how energy and water prices affect optimal reservoir and aquifer management. We evaluate reservoir-aquifer water management in the Merced water basin in California, applying an optimization model of storage benefits associated with different management options and input prices. The model includes two submodels: (a) a monthly nonlinear submodel for optimization of the conjunctive energy/water use and (b) an inter-annual stochastic dynamic programming submodel used for determining an operating rule matrix which maximizes system benefits for given economic and hydrologic conditions. The model input parameters include annual inflows, initial storage, crop water demands, crop prices and electricity prices. The model is used to determine changes in net energy generation and water delivery and associated changes in water storage levels caused by changes in water and energy output prices. For the scenario of water/energy tradeoffs for a pure reservoir (with no groundwater use), we illustrate the tradeoff between the agricultural water use and hydropower generation (MWh) for different energy/agriculture price ratios. The analysis is divided into four steps. The first and second steps describe these price impacts on reservoirs and aquifers, respectively. The third step covers price impacts on conjunctive reservoir and aquifer management. The forth step describes price impacts on reservoir and aquifer storage in the more common historical situation, when these facilities are managed separately. The study indicates that optimal reservoir and aquifer storage levels are a positive function of the energy to water price ratio. The study also concludes that conjunctive use of a reservoir and an aquifer tends to force convergence in the long term, multiyear, average groundwater and reservoir storage heads. The results of this study can be used for developing an efficient strategy of managing energy and water resources in different regions across a broad range of climatic, agricultural, and economic scenarios.

A Model for Dissolution of Lime in Steelmaking Slags

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarkar, Rahul; Roy, Ushasi; Ghosh, Dinabandhu

2016-08-01

In a previous study by Sarkar et al. (Metall. Mater. Trans. B 46B:961 2015), a dynamic model of the LD steelmaking was developed. The prediction of the previous model (Sarkar et al. in Metall. Mater. Trans. B 46B:961 2015) for the bath (metal) composition matched well with the plant data (Cicutti et al. in Proceedings of 6th International Conference on Molten Slags, Fluxes and Salts, Stockholm City, 2000). However, with respect to the slag composition, the prediction was not satisfactory. The current study aims to improve upon the previous model Sarkar et al. (Metall. Mater. Trans. B 46B:961 2015) by incorporating a lime dissolution submodel into the earlier one. From the industrial point of view, the understanding of the lime dissolution kinetics is important to meet the ever-increasing demand of producing low-P steel at a low basicity. In the current study, three-step kinetics for the lime dissolution is hypothesized on the assumption that a solid layer of 2CaO·SiO2 should form around the unreacted core of the lime. From the available experimental data, it seems improbable that the observed kinetics should be controlled singly by any one kinetic step. Accordingly, a general, mixed control model has been proposed to calculate the dissolution rate of the lime under varying slag compositions and temperatures. First, the rate equation for each of the three rate-controlling steps has been derived, for three different lime geometries. Next, the rate equation for the mixed control kinetics has been derived and solved to find the dissolution rate. The model predictions have been validated by means of the experimental data available in the literature. In addition, the effects of the process conditions on the dissolution rate have been studied, and compared with the experimental results wherever possible. Incorporation of this submodel into the earlier global model (Sarkar et al. in Metall. Mater. Trans. B 46B:961 2015) enables the prediction of the lime dissolution rate in the dynamic system of LD steelmaking. In addition, with the inclusion of this submodel, significant improvement in the prediction of the slag composition during the main blow period has been observed.

Activation of the marine ecosystem model 3D CEMBS for the Baltic Sea in operational mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dzierzbicka-Glowacka, Lidia; Jakacki, Jaromir; Janecki, Maciej; Nowicki, Artur

2013-04-01

The paper presents a new marine ecosystem model 3D CEMBS designed for the Baltic Sea. The ecosystem model is incorporated into the 3D POPCICE ocean-ice model. The Current Baltic Sea model is based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM from the National Center for Atmospheric Research) which was adapted for the Baltic Sea as a coupled sea-ice model. It consists of the Community Ice Code (CICE model, version 4.0) and the Parallel Ocean Program (version 2.1). The ecosystem model is a biological submodel of the 3D CEMBS. It consists of eleven mass conservation equations. There are eleven partial second-order differential equations of the diffusion type with the advective term for phytoplankton, zooplankton, nutrients, dissolved oxygen, and dissolved and particulate organic matter. This model is an effective tool for solving the problem of ecosystem bioproductivity. The model is forced by 48-hour atmospheric forecasts provided by the UM model from the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling of Warsaw University (ICM). The study was financially supported by the Polish State Committee of Scientific Research (grants: No N N305 111636, N N306 353239). The partial support for this study was also provided by the project Satellite Monitoring of the Baltic Sea Environment - SatBaltyk founded by European Union through European Regional Development Fund contract no. POIG 01.01.02-22-011/09. Calculations were carried out at the Academy Computer Centre in Gdańsk.

Modeling homeorhetic trajectories of milk component yields, body composition and dry-matter intake in dairy cows: Influence of parity, milk production potential and breed.

PubMed

Daniel, J B; Friggens, N C; van Laar, H; Ingvartsen, K L; Sauvant, D

2018-06-01

The control of nutrient partitioning is complex and affected by many factors, among them physiological state and production potential. Therefore, the current model aims to provide for dairy cows a dynamic framework to predict a consistent set of reference performance patterns (milk component yields, body composition change, dry-matter intake) sensitive to physiological status across a range of milk production potentials (within and between breeds). Flows and partition of net energy toward maintenance, growth, gestation, body reserves and milk components are described in the model. The structure of the model is characterized by two sub-models, a regulating sub-model of homeorhetic control which sets dynamic partitioning rules along the lactation, and an operating sub-model that translates this into animal performance. The regulating sub-model describes lactation as the result of three driving forces: (1) use of previously acquired resources through mobilization, (2) acquisition of new resources with a priority of partition towards milk and (3) subsequent use of resources towards body reserves gain. The dynamics of these three driving forces were adjusted separately for fat (milk and body), protein (milk and body) and lactose (milk). Milk yield is predicted from lactose and protein yields with an empirical equation developed from literature data. The model predicts desired dry-matter intake as an outcome of net energy requirements for a given dietary net energy content. The parameters controlling milk component yields and body composition changes were calibrated using two data sets in which the diet was the same for all animals. Weekly data from Holstein dairy cows was used to calibrate the model within-breed across milk production potentials. A second data set was used to evaluate the model and to calibrate it for breed differences (Holstein, Danish Red and Jersey) on the mobilization/reconstitution of body composition and on the yield of individual milk components. These calibrations showed that the model framework was able to adequately simulate milk yield, milk component yields, body composition changes and dry-matter intake throughout lactation for primiparous and multiparous cows differing in their production level.

Modelling and predicting the spatial distribution of tree root density in heterogeneous forest ecosystems

PubMed Central

Mao, Zhun; Saint-André, Laurent; Bourrier, Franck; Stokes, Alexia; Cordonnier, Thomas

2015-01-01

Background and Aims In mountain ecosystems, predicting root density in three dimensions (3-D) is highly challenging due to the spatial heterogeneity of forest communities. This study presents a simple and semi-mechanistic model, named ChaMRoots, that predicts root interception density (RID, number of roots m–2). ChaMRoots hypothesizes that RID at a given point is affected by the presence of roots from surrounding trees forming a polygon shape. Methods The model comprises three sub-models for predicting: (1) the spatial heterogeneity – RID of the finest roots in the top soil layer as a function of tree basal area at breast height, and the distance between the tree and a given point; (2) the diameter spectrum – the distribution of RID as a function of root diameter up to 50 mm thick; and (3) the vertical profile – the distribution of RID as a function of soil depth. The RID data used for fitting in the model were measured in two uneven-aged mountain forest ecosystems in the French Alps. These sites differ in tree density and species composition. Key Results In general, the validation of each sub-model indicated that all sub-models of ChaMRoots had good fits. The model achieved a highly satisfactory compromise between the number of aerial input parameters and the fit to the observed data. Conclusions The semi-mechanistic ChaMRoots model focuses on the spatial distribution of root density at the tree cluster scale, in contrast to the majority of published root models, which function at the level of the individual. Based on easy-to-measure characteristics, simple forest inventory protocols and three sub-models, it achieves a good compromise between the complexity of the case study area and that of the global model structure. ChaMRoots can be easily coupled with spatially explicit individual-based forest dynamics models and thus provides a highly transferable approach for modelling 3-D root spatial distribution in complex forest ecosystems. PMID:26173892

Globally-Applicable Predictive Wildfire Model   a Temporal-Spatial GIS Based Risk Analysis Using Data Driven Fuzzy Logic Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Dool, G.

2017-11-01

This study (van den Dool, 2017) is a proof of concept for a global predictive wildfire model, in which the temporal-spatial characteristics of wildfires are placed in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and the risk analysis is based on data-driven fuzzy logic functions. The data sources used in this model are available as global datasets, but subdivided into three pilot areas: North America (California/Nevada), Europe (Spain), and Asia (Mongolia), and are downscaled to the highest resolution (3-arc second). The GIS is constructed around three themes: topography, fuel availability and climate. From the topographical data, six derived sub-themes are created and converted to a fuzzy membership based on the catchment area statistics. The fuel availability score is a composite of four data layers: land cover, wood loads, biomass, biovolumes. As input for the climatological sub-model reanalysed daily averaged, weather-related data is used, which is accumulated to a global weekly time-window (to account for the uncertainty within the climatological model) and forms the temporal component of the model. The final product is a wildfire risk score (from 0 to 1) by week, representing the average wildfire risk in an area. To compute the potential wildfire risk the sub-models are combined usinga Multi-Criteria Approach, and the model results are validated against the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve.

An assessment of CFD-based wall heat transfer models in piston engines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sircar, Arpan; Paul, Chandan; Ferreyro-Fernandez, Sebastian

The lack of accurate submodels for in-cylinder heat transfer has been identified as a key shortcoming in developing truly predictive, physics-based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models that can be used to develop combustion systems for advanced high-efficiency, low-emissions engines. Only recently have experimental methods become available that enable accurate near-wall measurements to enhance simulation capability via advancing models. Initial results show crank-angle dependent discrepancies with respect to previously used boundary-layer models of up to 100%. However, available experimental data is quite sparse (only few data points on engine walls) and limited (available measurements are those of heat flux only). Predictivemore » submodels are needed for medium-resolution ("engineering") LES and for unsteady Reynolds-averaged simulations (URANS). Recently, some research groups have performed DNS studies on engine-relevant conditions using simple geometries. These provide very useful data for benchmarking wall heat transfer models under such conditions. Further, a number of new and more sophisticated models have also become available in the literature which account for these engine-like conditions. Some of these have been incorporated while others of a more complex nature, which include solving additional partial differential equations (PDEs) within the thin boundary layer near the wall, are underway. These models will then be tested against the available DNS/experimental data in both SI (spark-ignition) and CI (compression-ignition) engines.« less

Modelling of environmental impacts of solid waste landfilling within the life-cycle analysis program EASEWASTE.

PubMed

Kirkeby, Janus T; Birgisdottir, Harpa; Bhander, Gurbakash Singh; Hauschild, Michael; Christensen, Thomas H

2007-01-01

A new computer-based life-cycle assessment model (EASEWASTE) has been developed to evaluate resource and environmental consequences of solid waste management systems. This paper describes the landfilling sub-model used in the life-cycle assessment program EASEWASTE, and examines some of the implications of this sub-model. All quantities and concentrations of leachate and landfill gas can be modified by the user in order to bring them in agreement with the actual landfill that is assessed by the model. All emissions, except the generation of landfill gas, are process specific. The landfill gas generation is calculated on the basis of organic matter in the landfilled waste. A landfill assessment example is provided. For this example, the normalised environmental effects of landfill gas on global warming and photochemical smog are much greater than the environmental effects for landfill leachate or for landfill construction. A sensitivity analysis for this example indicates that the overall environmental impact is sensitive to the gas collection efficiency and the use of the gas, but not to the amount of leachate generated, or the amount of soil or liner material used in construction. The landfill model can be used for evaluating different technologies with different liners, gas and leachate collection efficiencies, and to compare the environmental consequences of landfilling with alternative waste treatment options such as incineration or anaerobic digestion.

History and Generality of Aquatox

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Aquatic fate, toxicology, and ecosystem submodels were coupled to “close the loop,” representing both direct and indirecteffects. the model is also a platform to which other environmental stressors may be added for extensive analysis.

40 CFR 87.42 - Production report to EPA.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

...: (1) The type of engine (turbofan, turboprop, etc.) and complete sub-model name, including any.... Specify thrust in kW for turboprop engines. You may omit the following items specified in Part III...

Vibration and acoustic frequency spectra for industrial process modeling using selective fusion multi-condition samples and multi-source features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Jian; Qiao, Junfei; Wu, ZhiWei; Chai, Tianyou; Zhang, Jian; Yu, Wen

2018-01-01

Frequency spectral data of mechanical vibration and acoustic signals relate to difficult-to-measure production quality and quantity parameters of complex industrial processes. A selective ensemble (SEN) algorithm can be used to build a soft sensor model of these process parameters by fusing valued information selectively from different perspectives. However, a combination of several optimized ensemble sub-models with SEN cannot guarantee the best prediction model. In this study, we use several techniques to construct mechanical vibration and acoustic frequency spectra of a data-driven industrial process parameter model based on selective fusion multi-condition samples and multi-source features. Multi-layer SEN (MLSEN) strategy is used to simulate the domain expert cognitive process. Genetic algorithm and kernel partial least squares are used to construct the inside-layer SEN sub-model based on each mechanical vibration and acoustic frequency spectral feature subset. Branch-and-bound and adaptive weighted fusion algorithms are integrated to select and combine outputs of the inside-layer SEN sub-models. Then, the outside-layer SEN is constructed. Thus, "sub-sampling training examples"-based and "manipulating input features"-based ensemble construction methods are integrated, thereby realizing the selective information fusion process based on multi-condition history samples and multi-source input features. This novel approach is applied to a laboratory-scale ball mill grinding process. A comparison with other methods indicates that the proposed MLSEN approach effectively models mechanical vibration and acoustic signals.

Modelling Biogeochemistry Across Domains with The Modular System for Shelves and Coasts (MOSSCO)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burchard, H.; Lemmen, C.; Hofmeister, R.; Knut, K.; Nasermoaddeli, M. H.; Kerimoglu, O.; Koesters, F.; Wirtz, K.

2016-02-01

Coastal biogeochemical processes extend from the atmosphere through the water column and the epibenthos into the ocean floor, laterally they are determined by freshwater inflows and open water exchange, and in situ they are mediated by physical, chemical and biological interactions. We use the new Modular System for Shelves and Coasts (MOSSCO, http://www.mossco.de) to obtain an integrated view of coastal biogeochemistry. MOSSCO is a coupling framework that builds on existing coupling technologies like the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF, for domain-coupling) and the Framework for Aquatic Biogeochemistry (FABM, for process coupling). MOSSCO facilitates the communication about and the integration of existing and of new process models into a threedimensional regional coastal modelling context. In the MOSSCO concept, the integrating framework imposes very few restrictions on contributed data or models; in fact, there is no distinction made between data and models. The few requirements are: (1) principle coupleability, i.e. access to I/O and timing information in submodels, which has recently been referred to as the Basic Model Interface (BMI) (2) open source/open data access and licencing and (3) communication of metadata, such as spatiotemporal information, naming conventions, and physical units. These requirements suffice to integrate different models and data sets into the MOSSCO infrastructure and subsequently built a modular integrated modeling tool that can span a diversity of processes and domains. Here, we demonstrate a MOSSCO application for the southern North Sea, where atmospheric deposition, biochemical processing in the water column and the ocean floor, lateral nutrient replenishment, and wave- and current-dependent remobilization from sediments are accounted for by modular components. A multi-annual simulation yields realistic succession of the spatial gradients of dissolved nutrients, of chlorophyll variability and gross primary production rates and of benthic denitrification rates for this intriguing coastal system.

40 CFR 87.42 - Production report to EPA.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... the following information for each sub-model: (1) The type of engine (turbofan, turboprop, etc.) and... report CO2 emissions. Specify thrust in kW for turboprop engines. You may omit the following items...

40 CFR 87.42 - Production report to EPA.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... the following information for each sub-model: (1) The type of engine (turbofan, turboprop, etc.) and... report CO2 emissions. Specify thrust in kW for turboprop engines. You may omit the following items...

Estimation of saltation emission in the Kubuqi Desert, North China.

PubMed

Du, Heqiang; Xue, Xian; Wang, Tao

2014-05-01

The Kubuqi Desert suffered more severe wind erosion hazard. Every year, a mass of aeolian sand was blown in the Ten Tributaries that are tributaries of the Yellow River. To estimate the quantity of aeolian sediment blown into the Ten Tributaries from the Kubuqi Desert, it is necessary to simulate the saltation processes of the Kubuqi Desert. A saltation submodel of the IWEMS (Integrated Wind-Erosion Modeling System) and its accompanying RS (Remote Sensing) and GIS (Geographic Information System) methods were used to model saltation emissions in the Kubuqi Desert. To calibrate the saltation submodel, frontal area of vegetation, soil moisture, wind velocity and saltation sediment were observed synchronously on several points in 2011 and 2012. In this study, a model namely BEACH (Bridge Event And Continuous Hydrological) was introduced to simulate the daily soil moisture. Using the surface parameters (frontal area of vegetation and soil moisture) along with the observed wind velocities and saltation sediments for the observed points, the saltation model was calibrated and validated. To reduce the simulate error, a subdaily wind velocity program, WINDGEN was introduced in this model to simulate the hourly wind velocity of the Kubuqi Desert. By incorporating simulated hourly wind velocity, and model variables, the saltation emission of the Kubuqi Desert was modeled. The model results show that the total sediment flow rate was 1-30.99 tons/m over the last 10years (2001-2010). The saltation emission mainly occurs in the north central part of the Kubuqi Desert in winter and spring. Integrating the wind directions, the quantity of the aeolian sediment that deposits in the Ten Tributaries was estimated. Compared with the observed data by the local government and hydrometric stations, our estimation is reasonable. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for inhalation of jet fuels in the rat.

PubMed

Martin, Sheppard A; Campbell, Jerry L; Tremblay, Raphael T; Fisher, Jeffrey W

2012-01-01

The pharmacokinetic behavior of the majority of jet fuel constituents has not been previously described in the framework of a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for inhalation exposure. Toxic effects have been reported in multiple organ systems, though exposure methods varied across studies, utilizing either vaporized or aerosolized fuels. The purpose of this work was to assess the pharmacokinetics of aerosolized and vaporized fuels, and develop a PBPK model capable of describing both types of exposures. To support model development, n-tetradecane and n-octane exposures were conducted at 89 mg/m(3) aerosol+vapor and 1000-5000 ppm vapor, respectively. Exposures to JP-8 and S-8 were conducted at ~900-1000 mg/m(3), and ~200 mg/m(3) to a 50:50 blend of both fuels. Sub-models were developed to assess the behavior of representative constituents and grouped unquantified constituents, termed "lumps", accounting for the remaining fuel mass. The sub-models were combined into the first PBPK model for petroleum and synthetic jet fuels. Inhalation of hydrocarbon vapors was described with simple gas-exchange assumptions for uptake and exhalation. For aerosol droplets systemic uptake occurred in the thoracic region. Visceral tissues were described using perfusion and diffusion-limited equations. The model described kinetics at multiple fuel concentrations, utilizing a chemical "lumping" strategy to estimate parameters for fractions of speciated and unspeciated hydrocarbons and gauge metabolic interactions. The model more accurately simulated aromatic and lower molecular weight (MW) n-alkanes than some higher MW chemicals. Metabolic interactions were more pronounced at high (~2700-1000 mg/m(3)) concentrations. This research represents the most detailed assessment of fuel pharmacokinetics to date.

Validation of a spatial model used to locate fish spawning reef construction sites in the St. Clair–Detroit River system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fischer, Jason L.; Bennion, David; Roseman, Edward F.; Manny, Bruce A.

2015-01-01

Lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) populations have suffered precipitous declines in the St. Clair–Detroit River system, following the removal of gravel spawning substrates and overfishing in the late 1800s to mid-1900s. To assist the remediation of lake sturgeon spawning habitat, three hydrodynamic models were integrated into a spatial model to identify areas in two large rivers, where water velocities were appropriate for the restoration of lake sturgeon spawning habitat. Here we use water velocity data collected with an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) to assess the ability of the spatial model and its sub-models to correctly identify areas where water velocities were deemed suitable for restoration of fish spawning habitat. ArcMap 10.1 was used to create raster grids of water velocity data from model estimates and ADCP measurements which were compared to determine the percentage of cells similarly classified as unsuitable, suitable, or ideal for fish spawning habitat remediation. The spatial model categorized 65% of the raster cells the same as depth-averaged water velocity measurements from the ADCP and 72% of the raster cells the same as surface water velocity measurements from the ADCP. Sub-models focused on depth-averaged velocities categorized the greatest percentage of cells similar to ADCP measurements where 74% and 76% of cells were the same as depth-averaged water velocity measurements. Our results indicate that integrating depth-averaged and surface water velocity hydrodynamic models may have biased the spatial model and overestimated suitable spawning habitat. A model solely integrating depth-averaged velocity models could improve identification of areas suitable for restoration of fish spawning habitat.

A Distributed Snow Evolution Modeling System (SnowModel)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liston, G. E.; Elder, K.

2004-12-01

A spatially distributed snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel) has been specifically designed to be applicable over a wide range of snow landscapes, climates, and conditions. To reach this goal, SnowModel is composed of four sub-models: MicroMet defines the meteorological forcing conditions, EnBal calculates surface energy exchanges, SnowMass simulates snow depth and water-equivalent evolution, and SnowTran-3D accounts for snow redistribution by wind. While other distributed snow models exist, SnowModel is unique in that it includes a well-tested blowing-snow sub-model (SnowTran-3D) for application in windy arctic, alpine, and prairie environments where snowdrifts are common. These environments comprise 68% of the seasonally snow-covered Northern Hemisphere land surface. SnowModel also accounts for snow processes occurring in forested environments (e.g., canopy interception related processes). SnowModel is designed to simulate snow-related physical processes occurring at spatial scales of 5-m and greater, and temporal scales of 1-hour and greater. These include: accumulation from precipitation; wind redistribution and sublimation; loading, unloading, and sublimation within forest canopies; snow-density evolution; and snowpack ripening and melt. To enhance its wide applicability, SnowModel includes the physical calculations required to simulate snow evolution within each of the global snow classes defined by Sturm et al. (1995), e.g., tundra, taiga, alpine, prairie, maritime, and ephemeral snow covers. The three, 25-km by 25-km, Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX) mesoscale study areas (MSAs: Fraser, North Park, and Rabbit Ears) are used as SnowModel simulation examples to highlight model strengths, weaknesses, and features in forested, semi-forested, alpine, and shrubland environments.

POEM: PESTICIDE ORCHARD ECOSYSTEM MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

The Pesticide Orchard Ecosystem Model (POEM) is a mathematical model of organophosphate pesticide movement in an apple orchard ecosystem. In addition submodels on invertebrate population dynamics are included. The fate model allows the user to select the pesticide, its applicatio...

Electrical engineering unit for the reactive power control of the load bus at the voltage instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotenev, A. V.; Kotenev, V. I.; Kochetkov, V. V.; Elkin, D. A.

2018-01-01

For the purpose of reactive power control error reduction and decrease of the voltage sags in the electric power system caused by the asynchronous motors started the mathematical model of the load bus was developed. The model was built up of the sub-models of the following elements: a transformer, a transmission line, a synchronous and an asynchronous loads and a capacitor bank load, and represents the automatic reactive power control system taking into account electromagnetic processes of the asynchronous motors started and reactive power changing of the electric power system elements caused by the voltage fluctuation. The active power/time and reactive power/time characteristics based on the recommended procedure of the equivalent electric circuit parameters calculation were obtained. The derived automatic reactive power control system was shown to eliminate the voltage sags in the electric power system caused by the asynchronous motors started.

Desertification in the south Junggar Basin, 2000-2009: Part II. Model development and trend analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Miao; Lin, Yi

2018-07-01

The substantial objective of desertification monitoring is to derive its development trend, which facilitates pre-making policies to handle its potential influences. Aiming at this extreme goal, previous studies have proposed a large number of remote sensing (RS) based methods to retrieve multifold indicators, as reviewed in Part I. However, most of these indicators individually capable of characterizing a single aspect of land attributes, e.g., albedo quantifying land surface reflectivity, cannot show a full picture of desertification processes; few comprehensive RS-based models have either been published. To fill this gap, this Part II was dedicated to developing a RS information model for comprehensively characterizing the desertification and deriving its trend, based on the indicators retrieved in Part I in the same case of the south Junggar Basin, China in the last decade (2000-2009). The proposed model was designed to have three dominant component modules, i.e., the vegetation-relevant sub-model, the soil-relevant sub-model, and the water-relevant sub-model, which synthesize all of the retrieved indicators to integrally reflect the processes of desertification; based on the model-output indices, the desertification trends were derived using the least absolute deviation fitting algorithm. Tests indicated that the proposed model did work and the study area showed different development tendencies for different desertification levels. Overall, this Part II established a new comprehensive RS information model for desertification risk assessment and its trend deriving, and the whole study comprising Part I and Part II advanced a relatively standard framework for RS-based desertification monitoring.

On operational flood forecasting system involving 1D/2D coupled hydraulic model and data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barthélémy, S.; Ricci, S.; Morel, T.; Goutal, N.; Le Pape, E.; Zaoui, F.

2018-07-01

In the context of hydrodynamic modeling, the use of 2D models is adapted in areas where the flow is not mono-dimensional (confluence zones, flood plains). Nonetheless the lack of field data and the computational cost constraints limit the extensive use of 2D models for operational flood forecasting. Multi-dimensional coupling offers a solution with 1D models where the flow is mono-dimensional and with local 2D models where needed. This solution allows for the representation of complex processes in 2D models, while the simulated hydraulic state is significantly better than that of the full 1D model. In this study, coupling is implemented between three 1D sub-models and a local 2D model for a confluence on the Adour river (France). A Schwarz algorithm is implemented to guarantee the continuity of the variables at the 1D/2D interfaces while in situ observations are assimilated in the 1D sub-models to improve results and forecasts in operational mode as carried out by the French flood forecasting services. An implementation of the coupling and data assimilation (DA) solution with domain decomposition and task/data parallelism is proposed so that it is compatible with operational constraints. The coupling with the 2D model improves the simulated hydraulic state compared to a global 1D model, and DA improves results in 1D and 2D areas.

Development of a regional groundwater flow model for the area of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Eastern Snake River Plain Aquifer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McCarthy, J.M.; Arnett, R.C.; Neupauer, R.M.

This report documents a study conducted to develop a regional groundwater flow model for the Eastern Snake River Plain Aquifer in the area of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The model was developed to support Waste Area Group 10, Operable Unit 10-04 groundwater flow and transport studies. The products of this study are this report and a set of computational tools designed to numerically model the regional groundwater flow in the Eastern Snake River Plain aquifer. The objective of developing the current model was to create a tool for defining the regional groundwater flow at the INEL. The model wasmore » developed to (a) support future transport modeling for WAG 10-04 by providing the regional groundwater flow information needed for the WAG 10-04 risk assessment, (b) define the regional groundwater flow setting for modeling groundwater contaminant transport at the scale of the individual WAGs, (c) provide a tool for improving the understanding of the groundwater flow system below the INEL, and (d) consolidate the existing regional groundwater modeling information into one usable model. The current model is appropriate for defining the regional flow setting for flow submodels as well as hypothesis testing to better understand the regional groundwater flow in the area of the INEL. The scale of the submodels must be chosen based on accuracy required for the study.« less

Ocean color modeling: Parameterization and interpretation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Hui

The ocean color as observed near the water surface is determined mainly by dissolved and particulate substances, known as "optically-active constituents," in the upper water column. The goal of ocean color modeling is to interpret an ocean color spectrum quantitatively to estimate the suite of optically-active constituents near the surface. In recent years, ocean color modeling efforts have been centering upon three major optically-active constituents: chlorophyll concentration, colored dissolved organic matter, and scattering particulates. Many challenges are still being faced in this arena. This thesis generally addresses and deals with some critical issues in ocean color modeling. In chapter one, an extensive literature survey on ocean color modeling is given. A general ocean color model is presented to identify critical candidate uncertainty sources in modeling the ocean color. The goal for this thesis study is then defined as well as some specific objectives. Finally, a general overview of the dissertation is portrayed, defining each of the follow-up chapters to target some relevant objectives. In chapter two, a general approach is presented to quantify constituent concentration retrieval errors induced by uncertainties in inherent optical property (IOP) submodels of a semi-analytical forward model. Chlorophyll concentrations are retrieved by inverting a forward model with nonlinear IOPs. The study demonstrates how uncertainties in individual IOP submodels influence the accuracy of the chlorophyll concentration retrieval at different chlorophyll concentration levels. The important finding for this study shows that precise knowledge of spectral shapes of IOP submodels is critical for accurate chlorophyll retrieval, suggesting an improvement in retrieval accuracy requires precise spectral IOP measurements. In chapter three, three distinct inversion techniques, namely, nonlinear optimization (NLO), principal component analysis (PCA) and artificial neural network (ANN) are compared to assess their inversion performances to retrieve optically-active constituents for a complex nonlinear bio-optical system simulated by a semi-analytical ocean color model. A well-designed simulation scheme was implemented to simulate waters of different bio-optical complexity, and then the three inversion methods were applied to these simulated datasets for performance evaluation. In chapter four, an approach is presented for optimally parameterizing an irradiance reflectance model on the basis of a bio-optical dataset made at 45 stations in the Tokyo Bay and nearby regions between 1982 and 1984. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

POLUTE. Forest Air Pollutant Uptake Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murphy, C.E. Jr.; Sinclair, T.R.

1992-02-13

POLUTE is a computer model designed to estimate the uptake of air pollutants by forests. The model utilizes submodels to describe atmospheric diffusion immediately above and within the canopy, and into the sink areas within or on the trees. The program implementing the model is general and can be used, with only minor changes, for any gaseous pollutant. The model provides an estimate describing the response of the vegetarian-atmosphere system to the environment as related to three types of processes: atmospheric diffusion, diffusion near and inside the absorbing plant, and the physical and chemical processes at the sink on ormore » within the plant.« less

Evaluating operational vacuum for landfill biogas extraction.

PubMed

Fabbricino, Massimiliano

2007-01-01

This manuscript proposes a practical methodology for estimating the operational vacuum for landfill biogas extraction from municipal landfills. The procedure is based on two sub-models which simulate landfill gas production from organic waste decomposition and distribution of gas pressure and gas movement induced by suction at a blower station. The two models are coupled in a single mass balance equation, obtaining a relationship between the operational vacuum and the amount of landfill gas that can be extracted from an assigned system of vertical wells. To better illustrate the procedure, it is applied to a case study, where a good agreement between simulated and measured data, within +/- 30%, is obtained.

Closed-form solutions of performability. [modeling of a degradable buffer/multiprocessor system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meyer, J. F.

1981-01-01

Methods which yield closed form performability solutions for continuous valued variables are developed. The models are similar to those employed in performance modeling (i.e., Markovian queueing models) but are extended so as to account for variations in structure due to faults. In particular, the modeling of a degradable buffer/multiprocessor system is considered whose performance Y is the (normalized) average throughput rate realized during a bounded interval of time. To avoid known difficulties associated with exact transient solutions, an approximate decomposition of the model is employed permitting certain submodels to be solved in equilibrium. These solutions are then incorporated in a model with fewer transient states and by solving the latter, a closed form solution of the system's performability is obtained. In conclusion, some applications of this solution are discussed and illustrated, including an example of design optimization.

Simulating physiological interactions in a hybrid system of mathematical models.

PubMed

Kretschmer, Jörn; Haunsberger, Thomas; Drost, Erick; Koch, Edmund; Möller, Knut

2014-12-01

Mathematical models can be deployed to simulate physiological processes of the human organism. Exploiting these simulations, reactions of a patient to changes in the therapy regime can be predicted. Based on these predictions, medical decision support systems (MDSS) can help in optimizing medical therapy. An MDSS designed to support mechanical ventilation in critically ill patients should not only consider respiratory mechanics but should also consider other systems of the human organism such as gas exchange or blood circulation. A specially designed framework allows combining three model families (respiratory mechanics, cardiovascular dynamics and gas exchange) to predict the outcome of a therapy setting. Elements of the three model families are dynamically combined to form a complex model system with interacting submodels. Tests revealed that complex model combinations are not computationally feasible. In most patients, cardiovascular physiology could be simulated by simplified models decreasing computational costs. Thus, a simplified cardiovascular model that is able to reproduce basic physiological behavior is introduced. This model purely consists of difference equations and does not require special algorithms to be solved numerically. The model is based on a beat-to-beat model which has been extended to react to intrathoracic pressure levels that are present during mechanical ventilation. The introduced reaction to intrathoracic pressure levels as found during mechanical ventilation has been tuned to mimic the behavior of a complex 19-compartment model. Tests revealed that the model is able to represent general system behavior comparable to the 19-compartment model closely. Blood pressures were calculated with a maximum deviation of 1.8 % in systolic pressure and 3.5 % in diastolic pressure, leading to a simulation error of 0.3 % in cardiac output. The gas exchange submodel being reactive to changes in cardiac output showed a resulting deviation of less than 0.1 %. Therefore, the proposed model is usable in combinations where cardiovascular simulation does not have to be detailed. Computing costs have been decreased dramatically by a factor 186 compared to a model combination employing the 19-compartment model.

Seismic‐hazard forecast for 2016 including induced and natural earthquakes in the central and eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

2016-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has produced a one‐year (2016) probabilistic seismic‐hazard assessment for the central and eastern United States (CEUS) that includes contributions from both induced and natural earthquakes that are constructed with probabilistic methods using alternative data and inputs. This hazard assessment builds on our 2016 final model (Petersen et al., 2016) by adding sensitivity studies, illustrating hazard in new ways, incorporating new population data, and discussing potential improvements. The model considers short‐term seismic activity rates (primarily 2014–2015) and assumes that the activity rates will remain stationary over short time intervals. The final model considers different ways of categorizing induced and natural earthquakes by incorporating two equally weighted earthquake rate submodels that are composed of alternative earthquake inputs for catalog duration, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground‐motion models. These alternatives represent uncertainties on how we calculate earthquake occurrence and the diversity of opinion within the science community. In this article, we also test sensitivity to the minimum moment magnitude between M 4 and M 4.7 and the choice of applying a declustered catalog with b=1.0 rather than the full catalog with b=1.3. We incorporate two earthquake rate submodels: in the informed submodel we classify earthquakes as induced or natural, and in the adaptive submodel we do not differentiate. The alternative submodel hazard maps both depict high hazard and these are combined in the final model. Results depict several ground‐shaking measures as well as intensity and include maps showing a high‐hazard level (1% probability of exceedance in 1 year or greater). Ground motions reach 0.6g horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) in north‐central Oklahoma and southern Kansas, and about 0.2g PGA in the Raton basin of Colorado and New Mexico, in central Arkansas, and in north‐central Texas near Dallas–Fort Worth. The chance of having levels of ground motions corresponding to modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) VI or greater earthquake shaking is 2%–12% per year in north‐central Oklahoma and southern Kansas and New Madrid similar to the chance of damage at sites in high‐hazard portions of California caused by natural earthquakes. Hazard is also significant in the Raton basin of Colorado/New Mexico; north‐central Arkansas; Dallas–Fort Worth, Texas; and in a few other areas. Hazard probabilities are much lower (by about half or more) for exceeding MMI VII or VIII. Hazard is 3‐ to 10‐fold higher near some areas of active‐induced earthquakes than in the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), which did not consider induced earthquakes. This study in conjunction with the LandScan TM Database (2013) indicates that about 8 million people live in areas of active injection wells that have a greater than 1% chance of experiencing damaging ground shaking (MMI≥VI) in 2016. The final model has high uncertainty, and engineers, regulators, and industry should use these assessments cautiously to make informed decisions on mitigating the potential effects of induced and natural earthquakes.

A MULTILAYER BIOCHEMICAL DRY DEPOSITION MODEL 1. MODEL FORMULATION

EPA Science Inventory

A multilayer biochemical dry deposition model has been developed based on the NOAA Multilayer Model (MLM) to study gaseous exchanges between the soil, plants, and the atmosphere. Most of the parameterizations and submodels have been updated or replaced. The numerical integration ...

A New Perspective on the Foraging Ecology of Apex Predators in the California Current: Results from a Fully Coupled Ecosystem Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiechter, J.; Huckstadt, L. A.; Rose, K.; Costa, D. P.; Curchitser, E. N.; Hedstrom, K.; Edwards, C. A.; Moore, A. M.

2016-02-01

Results from a fully coupled end-to-end ecosystem model for the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem are used to describe the impact of environmental variability on the foraging ecology of its most abundant apex predator, California sea lions (Zalophus californianus). The ecosystem model consists of a biogeochemical submodel embedded in a regional ocean circulation submodel, and both coupled with a multi-species individual-based submodel for forage fish (sardine and anchovy) and California sea lions. For sea lions, bioenergetics and behavioral attributes are specified using available TOPP (Tagging Of Pacific Predators) data on their foraging patterns and diet in the California Current. Sardine and anchovy are explicitly included in the model as they represent important prey sources for California sea lions and exhibit significant interannual and decadal variability in population abundances. Output from a 20-year run (1989-2008) of the model demonstrates how different physical and biological processes control habitat utilization and foraging success of California sea lions on interannual time scales. A principal component analysis of sea lion foraging patterns indicates that the first mode of variability is alongshore and tied to sardine availability, while the second mode is cross-shore and associated with coastal upwelling intensity (a behavior consistent with male sea lion tracking data collected in 2004 vs. 2005). The results also illustrate how variability in environmental conditions and forage fish distribution affects sea lions feeding success. While specifically focusing on the foraging ecology of sea lions, our modeling framework has the ability to provide new and unique perspectives on trophic interactions in the California Current, or other regions where similar end-to-end ecosystem models may be implemented.

A new seasonal-deciduous spring phenology submodel in the Community Land Model 4.5: impacts on carbon and water cycling under future climate scenarios.

PubMed

Chen, Min; Melaas, Eli K; Gray, Josh M; Friedl, Mark A; Richardson, Andrew D

2016-11-01

A spring phenology model that combines photoperiod with accumulated heating and chilling to predict spring leaf-out dates is optimized using PhenoCam observations and coupled into the Community Land Model (CLM) 4.5. In head-to-head comparison (using satellite data from 2003 to 2013 for validation) for model grid cells over the Northern Hemisphere deciduous broadleaf forests (5.5 million km 2 ), we found that the revised model substantially outperformed the standard CLM seasonal-deciduous spring phenology submodel at both coarse (0.9 × 1.25°) and fine (1 km) scales. The revised model also does a better job of representing recent (decadal) phenological trends observed globally by MODIS, as well as long-term trends (1950-2014) in the PEP725 European phenology dataset. Moreover, forward model runs suggested a stronger advancement (up to 11 days) of spring leaf-out by the end of the 21st century for the revised model. Trends toward earlier advancement are predicted for deciduous forests across the whole Northern Hemisphere boreal and temperate deciduous forest region for the revised model, whereas the standard model predicts earlier leaf-out in colder regions, but later leaf-out in warmer regions, and no trend globally. The earlier spring leaf-out predicted by the revised model resulted in enhanced gross primary production (up to 0.6 Pg C yr -1 ) and evapotranspiration (up to 24 mm yr -1 ) when results were integrated across the study region. These results suggest that the standard seasonal-deciduous submodel in CLM should be reconsidered, otherwise substantial errors in predictions of key land-atmosphere interactions and feedbacks may result. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Quantifying the uncertainty of nonpoint source attribution in distributed water quality models: A Bayesian assessment of SWAT's sediment export predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wellen, Christopher; Arhonditsis, George B.; Long, Tanya; Boyd, Duncan

2014-11-01

Spatially distributed nonpoint source watershed models are essential tools to estimate the magnitude and sources of diffuse pollution. However, little work has been undertaken to understand the sources and ramifications of the uncertainty involved in their use. In this study we conduct the first Bayesian uncertainty analysis of the water quality components of the SWAT model, one of the most commonly used distributed nonpoint source models. Working in Southern Ontario, we apply three Bayesian configurations for calibrating SWAT to Redhill Creek, an urban catchment, and Grindstone Creek, an agricultural one. We answer four interrelated questions: can SWAT determine suspended sediment sources with confidence when end of basin data is used for calibration? How does uncertainty propagate from the discharge submodel to the suspended sediment submodels? Do the estimated sediment sources vary when different calibration approaches are used? Can we combine the knowledge gained from different calibration approaches? We show that: (i) despite reasonable fit at the basin outlet, the simulated sediment sources are subject to uncertainty sufficient to undermine the typical approach of reliance on a single, best fit simulation; (ii) more than a third of the uncertainty of sediment load predictions may stem from the discharge submodel; (iii) estimated sediment sources do vary significantly across the three statistical configurations of model calibration despite end-of-basin predictions being virtually identical; and (iv) Bayesian model averaging is an approach that can synthesize predictions when a number of adequate distributed models make divergent source apportionments. We conclude with recommendations for future research to reduce the uncertainty encountered when using distributed nonpoint source models for source apportionment.

Holomorphic solutions of the susy Grassmannian σ-model and gauge invariance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussin, V.; Lafrance, M.; Yurduşen, İ.; Zakrzewski, W. J.

2018-05-01

We study the gauge invariance of the supersymmetric Grassmannian sigma model . It is richer then its purely bosonic submodel and we show how to use it in order to reduce some constant curvature holomorphic solutions of the model into simpler expressions.

BACTERIAL MORTALITY DUE TO SOLAR RADIATION, COMPARING EXPERIMENTAL AND STATISTICAL EVIDENCE

EPA Science Inventory

Many researchers report that sunlight is a primary stressor of beach indicator bacteria. Some water quality models include code that quantifies the effect of radiation on bacterial decay. For example, the EPA Visual Plumes model includes two coliform and one enterococcus submodel...

PSO-MISMO modeling strategy for multistep-ahead time series prediction.

PubMed

Bao, Yukun; Xiong, Tao; Hu, Zhongyi

2014-05-01

Multistep-ahead time series prediction is one of the most challenging research topics in the field of time series modeling and prediction, and is continually under research. Recently, the multiple-input several multiple-outputs (MISMO) modeling strategy has been proposed as a promising alternative for multistep-ahead time series prediction, exhibiting advantages compared with the two currently dominating strategies, the iterated and the direct strategies. Built on the established MISMO strategy, this paper proposes a particle swarm optimization (PSO)-based MISMO modeling strategy, which is capable of determining the number of sub-models in a self-adaptive mode, with varying prediction horizons. Rather than deriving crisp divides with equal-size s prediction horizons from the established MISMO, the proposed PSO-MISMO strategy, implemented with neural networks, employs a heuristic to create flexible divides with varying sizes of prediction horizons and to generate corresponding sub-models, providing considerable flexibility in model construction, which has been validated with simulated and real datasets.

A Joint Model for Longitudinal Measurements and Survival Data in the Presence of Multiple Failure Types

PubMed Central

Elashoff, Robert M.; Li, Gang; Li, Ning

2009-01-01

Summary In this article we study a joint model for longitudinal measurements and competing risks survival data. Our joint model provides a flexible approach to handle possible nonignorable missing data in the longitudinal measurements due to dropout. It is also an extension of previous joint models with a single failure type, offering a possible way to model informatively censored events as a competing risk. Our model consists of a linear mixed effects submodel for the longitudinal outcome and a proportional cause-specific hazards frailty submodel (Prentice et al., 1978, Biometrics 34, 541-554) for the competing risks survival data, linked together by some latent random effects. We propose to obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters by an expectation maximization (EM) algorithm and estimate their standard errors using a profile likelihood method. The developed method works well in our simulation studies and is applied to a clinical trial for the scleroderma lung disease. PMID:18162112

Preliminary evaluation of a lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) bioenergetics model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madenjian, Charles P.; Pothoven, Steven A.; Schneeberger, Philip J.; O'Connor, Daniel V.; Brandt, Stephen B.

2005-01-01

We conducted a preliminary evaluation of a lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) bioenergetics model by applying the model to size-at-age data for lake whitefish from northern Lake Michigan. We then compared estimates of gross growth efficiency (GGE) from our bioenergetis model with previously published estimates of GGE for bloater (C. hoyi) in Lake Michigan and for lake whitefish in Quebec. According to our model, the GGE of Lake Michigan lake whitefish decreased from 0.075 to 0.02 as age increased from 2 to 5 years. In contrast, the GGE of lake whitefish in Quebec inland waters decreased from 0.12 to 0.05 for the same ages. When our swimming-speed submodel was replaced with a submodel that had been used for lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) in Lake Michigan and an observed predator energy density for Lake Michigan lake whitefish was employed, our model predicted that the GGE of Lake Michigan lake whitefish decreased from 0.12 to 0.04 as age increased from 2 to 5 years.

Reactive solute transport in streams: 1. Development of an equilibrium- based model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runkel, Robert L.; Bencala, Kenneth E.; Broshears, Robert E.; Chapra, Steven C.

1996-01-01

An equilibrium-based solute transport model is developed for the simulation of trace metal fate and transport in streams. The model is formed by coupling a solute transport model with a chemical equilibrium submodel based on MINTEQ. The solute transport model considers the physical processes of advection, dispersion, lateral inflow, and transient storage, while the equilibrium submodel considers the speciation and complexation of aqueous species, precipitation/dissolution and sorption. Within the model, reactions in the water column may result in the formation of solid phases (precipitates and sorbed species) that are subject to downstream transport and settling processes. Solid phases on the streambed may also interact with the water column through dissolution and sorption/desorption reactions. Consideration of both mobile (water-borne) and immobile (streambed) solid phases requires a unique set of governing differential equations and solution techniques that are developed herein. The partial differential equations describing physical transport and the algebraic equations describing chemical equilibria are coupled using the sequential iteration approach.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kress, Joel David

The development and scale up of cost effective carbon capture processes is of paramount importance to enable the widespread deployment of these technologies to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The U.S. Department of Energy initiated the Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) in 2011 with the goal of developing a computational toolset that would enable industry to more effectively identify, design, scale up, operate, and optimize promising concepts. The first half of the presentation will introduce the CCSI Toolset consisting of basic data submodels, steady-state and dynamic process models, process optimization and uncertainty quantification tools, an advanced dynamic process control framework,more » and high-resolution filtered computationalfluid- dynamics (CFD) submodels. The second half of the presentation will describe a high-fidelity model of a mesoporous silica supported, polyethylenimine (PEI)-impregnated solid sorbent for CO 2 capture. The sorbent model includes a detailed treatment of transport and amine-CO 2- H 2O interactions based on quantum chemistry calculations. Using a Bayesian approach for uncertainty quantification, we calibrate the sorbent model to Thermogravimetric (TGA) data.« less

Neural network submodel as an abstraction tool: relating network performance to combat outcome

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jablunovsky, Greg; Dorman, Clark; Yaworsky, Paul S.

2000-06-01

Simulation of Command and Control (C2) networks has historically emphasized individual system performance with little architectural context or credible linkage to `bottom- line' measures of combat outcomes. Renewed interest in modeling C2 effects and relationships stems from emerging network intensive operational concepts. This demands improved methods to span the analytical hierarchy between C2 system performance models and theater-level models. Neural network technology offers a modeling approach that can abstract the essential behavior of higher resolution C2 models within a campaign simulation. The proposed methodology uses off-line learning of the relationships between network state and campaign-impacting performance of a complex C2 architecture and then approximation of that performance as a time-varying parameter in an aggregated simulation. Ultimately, this abstraction tool offers an increased fidelity of C2 system simulation that captures dynamic network dependencies within a campaign context.

An operations and command systems for the extreme ultraviolet explorer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Muscettola, Nicola; Korsmeyer, David J.; Olson, Eric C.; Wong, Gary

1994-01-01

About 40% of the budget of a scientific spacecraft mission is usually consumed by Mission Operations & Data Analysis (MO&DA) with MO driving these costs. In the current practice, MO is separated from spacecraft design and comes in focus relatively late in the mission life cycle. As a result, spacecraft may be designed that are very difficult to operate. NASA centers have extensive MO expertise but often lessons learned in one mission are not exploited for other parallel or future missions. A significant reduction of MO costs is essential to ensure a continuing and growing access to space for the scientific community. We are addressing some of these issues with a highly automated payload operations and command system for an existing mission, the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE). EUVE is currently operated jointly by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), responsible for spacecraft operations, and the Center for Extreme Ultraviolet Astrophysics (CEA) of the University of California, Berkeley, which controls the telescopes and scientific instruments aboard the satellite. The new automated system is being developed by a team including personnel from the NASA Ames Research Center (ARC), the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the Center for EUV Astrophysics (CEA). An important goal of the project is to provide AI-based technology that can be easily operated by nonspecialists in AI. Another important goal is the reusability of the techniques for other missions. Models of the EUVE spacecraft need to be built both for planning/scheduling and for monitoring. In both cases, our modeling tools allow the assembly of a spacecraft model from separate sub-models of the various spacecraft subsystems. These sub-models are reusable; therefore, building mission operations systems for another small satellite mission will require choosing pre-existing modules, reparametrizing them with respect to the actual satellite telemetry information, and reassembling them in a new model. We briefly describe the EUVE mission and indicate why it is particularly suitable for the task. Then we briefly outline our current work in mission planning/scheduling and spacecraft and instrument health monitoring.

Modeling of Heat Transfer in Rooms in the Modelica "Buildings" Library

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wetter, Michael; Zuo, Wangda; Nouidui, Thierry Stephane

This paper describes the implementation of the room heat transfer model in the free open-source Modelica \\Buildings" library. The model can be used as a single room or to compose a multizone building model. We discuss how the model is decomposed into submodels for the individual heat transfer phenomena. We also discuss the main physical assumptions. The room model can be parameterized to use different modeling assumptions, leading to linear or non-linear differential algebraic systems of equations. We present numerical experiments that show how these assumptions affect computing time and accuracy for selected cases of the ANSI/ASHRAE Standard 140- 2007more » envelop validation tests.« less

CFD studies on biomass thermochemical conversion.

PubMed

Wang, Yiqun; Yan, Lifeng

2008-06-01

Thermochemical conversion of biomass offers an efficient and economically process to provide gaseous, liquid and solid fuels and prepare chemicals derived from biomass. Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) modeling applications on biomass thermochemical processes help to optimize the design and operation of thermochemical reactors. Recent progression in numerical techniques and computing efficacy has advanced CFD as a widely used approach to provide efficient design solutions in industry. This paper introduces the fundamentals involved in developing a CFD solution. Mathematical equations governing the fluid flow, heat and mass transfer and chemical reactions in thermochemical systems are described and sub-models for individual processes are presented. It provides a review of various applications of CFD in the biomass thermochemical process field.

Multi-model approach to characterize human handwriting motion.

PubMed

Chihi, I; Abdelkrim, A; Benrejeb, M

2016-02-01

This paper deals with characterization and modelling of human handwriting motion from two forearm muscle activity signals, called electromyography signals (EMG). In this work, an experimental approach was used to record the coordinates of a pen tip moving on the (x, y) plane and EMG signals during the handwriting act. The main purpose is to design a new mathematical model which characterizes this biological process. Based on a multi-model approach, this system was originally developed to generate letters and geometric forms written by different writers. A Recursive Least Squares algorithm is used to estimate the parameters of each sub-model of the multi-model basis. Simulations show good agreement between predicted results and the recorded data.

CFD Studies on Biomass Thermochemical Conversion

PubMed Central

Wang, Yiqun; Yan, Lifeng

2008-01-01

Thermochemical conversion of biomass offers an efficient and economically process to provide gaseous, liquid and solid fuels and prepare chemicals derived from biomass. Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) modeling applications on biomass thermochemical processes help to optimize the design and operation of thermochemical reactors. Recent progression in numerical techniques and computing efficacy has advanced CFD as a widely used approach to provide efficient design solutions in industry. This paper introduces the fundamentals involved in developing a CFD solution. Mathematical equations governing the fluid flow, heat and mass transfer and chemical reactions in thermochemical systems are described and sub-models for individual processes are presented. It provides a review of various applications of CFD in the biomass thermochemical process field. PMID:19325848

POLUTE; forest air pollutant uptake model. [IBM360,370; CSMP

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murphy, C.E.

POLUTE is a computer model designed to estimate the uptake of air pollutants by forests. The model utilizes submodels to describe atmospheric diffusion immediately above and within the canopy, and into the sink areas within or on the trees. The program implementing the model is general and can be used, with only minor changes, for any gaseous pollutant. The model provides an estimate describing the response of the vegetarian-atmosphere system to the environment as related to three types of processes: atmospheric diffusion, diffusion near and inside the absorbing plant, and the physical and chemical processes at the sink on ormore » within the plant.IBM360,370; CSMP; OS/370.« less

An intermediate-complexity model for simulating marine biogeochemistry in deep time: Validation against the modern global ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romaniello, Stephen J.; Derry, Louis A.

2010-08-01

We present a new high-resolution 1-D intermediate-complexity box model (ICBM) of ocean biogeochemical processes for paleoceanographic applications. The model contains 79 reservoirs in three regions that should be generally applicable throughout much of Earth history: (1) a stratified gyre region, (2) a high-latitude convective region, and (3) an upwelling region analogous to those found associated with eastern boundary currents. Transport processes are modeled as exchange fluxes between boxes and by eddy diffusion terms. Significant improvement in the representation of middepth oxygen budgets was achieved by implementing nonlocal mixing between the high-latitude surface and gyre thermocline reservoirs. The biogeochemical submodel simulates coupled C, N, P, O, and S systematics with explicit representation of microbial populations, using a process-based approach. Primary production follows Redfield stoichiometry, while water column remineralization is depth- and redox couple-dependent. Settling particulate organic matter is incorporated into a benthic submodel that accounts for burial and remineralization. The C/P ratio of burial depends on bottom water oxygen. Denitrification takes place both by classical and anammox pathways. The ICBM was tested against modern oceanographic observations from the Global Ocean Data Analysis Project, Joint Global Ocean Flux Study, and other databases. Comparisons of model output with circulation tracers including θ, salinity, CFC-12, and radiocarbon permit a test of the physical exchange scheme. Vertical profiles of biogeochemically reactive components in each of the three regions are in good agreement with observations. Under modern conditions the upwelling zone displays a pronounced oxygen minimum zone and water column denitrification, while these are not present in the high-latitude or gyre regions. Model-generated global fluxes also compare well to independent estimates of primary production, burial, and phosphorous and nitrogen cycling. The ICBM appears to adequately simulate the long-term (kyr) evolution of several biogeochemical cycles and improves on previous box models in several important ways. In a companion paper, the model's performance under euxinic conditions is tested against modern Black Sea data. The simple and adaptable structure of the model should make it applicable to a wide range of paleoceanographic problems. The model source code is available in MATLABTM 7 m-files provided as auxiliary material.

The induced electric field due to a current transient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, Y.; Braunstein, A.; Frankental, S.

2007-05-01

Calculations and measurements of the electric fields, induced by a lightning strike, are important for understanding the phenomenon and developing effective protection systems. In this paper, a novel approach to the calculation of the electric fields due to lightning strikes, using a relativistic approach, is presented. This approach is based on a known current wave-pair model, representing the lightning current wave. The model presented is one that describes the lightning current wave, either at the first stage of the descending charge wave from the cloud or at the later stage of the return stroke. The electric fields computed are cylindrically symmetric. A simplified method for the calculation of the electric field is achieved by using special relativity theory and relativistic considerations. The proposed approach, described in this paper, is based on simple expressions (by applying Coulomb's law) compared with much more complicated partial differential equations based on Maxwell's equations. A straight forward method of calculating the electric field due to a lightning strike, modelled as a negative-positive (NP) wave-pair, is determined by using the special relativity theory in order to calculate the 'velocity field' and relativistic concepts for calculating the 'acceleration field'. These fields are the basic elements required for calculating the total field resulting from the current wave-pair model. Moreover, a modified simpler method using sub models is represented. The sub-models are filaments of either static charges or charges at constant velocity only. Combining these simple sub-models yields the total wave-pair model. The results fully agree with that obtained by solving Maxwell's equations for the discussed problem.

Linking landscape characteristics to local grizzly bear abundance using multiple detection methods in a hierarchical model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graves, T.A.; Kendall, Katherine C.; Royle, J. Andrew; Stetz, J.B.; Macleod, A.C.

2011-01-01

Few studies link habitat to grizzly bear Ursus arctos abundance and these have not accounted for the variation in detection or spatial autocorrelation. We collected and genotyped bear hair in and around Glacier National Park in northwestern Montana during the summer of 2000. We developed a hierarchical Markov chain Monte Carlo model that extends the existing occupancy and count models by accounting for (1) spatially explicit variables that we hypothesized might influence abundance; (2) separate sub-models of detection probability for two distinct sampling methods (hair traps and rub trees) targeting different segments of the population; (3) covariates to explain variation in each sub-model of detection; (4) a conditional autoregressive term to account for spatial autocorrelation; (5) weights to identify most important variables. Road density and per cent mesic habitat best explained variation in female grizzly bear abundance; spatial autocorrelation was not supported. More female bears were predicted in places with lower road density and with more mesic habitat. Detection rates of females increased with rub tree sampling effort. Road density best explained variation in male grizzly bear abundance and spatial autocorrelation was supported. More male bears were predicted in areas of low road density. Detection rates of males increased with rub tree and hair trap sampling effort and decreased over the sampling period. We provide a new method to (1) incorporate multiple detection methods into hierarchical models of abundance; (2) determine whether spatial autocorrelation should be included in final models. Our results suggest that the influence of landscape variables is consistent between habitat selection and abundance in this system.

Modeling of the Contaminated Sediment in the Erft River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Wei; Westrich, Bernhard; Rode, Michael

2010-05-01

Sediment transport processes play an important role in the surface water systems coupled with rainfall-runoff and contaminant transport. Pollutants like heavy metals adsorbed mainly by fine sediment particles can be deposited, eroded or transported further downstream. When the toxic pollutants deposited before and covered by cleaner sediment are remobilized by large flow events such as floods, they pose a hidden threat to the human health and environment. In the Erft River, due to mining activities in the past, the heavy metals release from the tributary Veybach on the downstream water and sediment quality is significant. Recent measurements prove the decreasing concentration trend of heavy metals in the river bed sediment from the Veybach. One-dimensional hydrodynamic model COSMOS is used to model the complicated water flow, sediment erosion, deposition and contaminant mixing and transport in the mainstream of the Erft River. It is based on a finite-difference formulation and consists of one-dimensional, unsteady sub-model of flow and transport, coupled with a sub-model of the layered sediment bed. The model accounts for the following governing physical-chemical processes: convective and dispersive transport, turbulent mixing deposited sediment surface, deposition, consolidation, aging and erosion of sediment, adsorption-desorption of pollutants to suspended particles and losses of pollutants due to decay or volatilization. The results reproduce the decreasing profile of the pollutant concentration in the river bed sediment nicely. Further modeling is to analysis the influence of the mixing process at the water-riverbed interface on the contaminant transport, hydrological scenarios impact on the remobilization of the sink of pollutant and its negative consequences on the river basin.

A Caveat Note on Tuning in the Development of Coupled Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dommenget, Dietmar; Rezny, Michael

2018-01-01

State-of-the-art coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) have substantial errors in their simulations of climate. In particular, these errors can lead to large uncertainties in the simulated climate response (both globally and regionally) to a doubling of CO2. Currently, tuning of the parameterization schemes in CGCMs is a significant part of the developed. It is not clear whether such tuning actually improves models. The tuning process is (in general) neither documented, nor reproducible. Alternative methods such as flux correcting are not used nor is it clear if such methods would perform better. In this study, ensembles of perturbed physics experiments are performed with the Globally Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) model to test the impact of tuning. The work illustrates that tuning has, in average, limited skill given the complexity of the system, the limited computing resources, and the limited observations to optimize parameters. While tuning may improve model performance (such as reproducing observed past climate), it will not get closer to the "true" physics nor will it significantly improve future climate change projections. Tuning will introduce artificial compensating error interactions between submodels that will hamper further model development. In turn, flux corrections do perform well in most, but not all aspects. A main advantage of flux correction is that it is much cheaper, simpler, more transparent, and it does not introduce artificial error interactions between submodels. These GREB model experiments should be considered as a pilot study to motivate further CGCM studies that address the issues of model tuning.

THE LAKE MICHIGAN MASS BALANCE PROJECT: QUALITY ASSURANCE PLAN FOR MATHEMATICAL MODELLING

EPA Science Inventory

This report documents the quality assurance process for the development and application of the Lake Michigan Mass Balance Models. The scope includes the overall modeling framework as well as the specific submodels that are linked to form a comprehensive synthesis of physical, che...

Flexible Energy Scheduling Tool for Integrating Variable Generation | Grid

Science.gov Websites

, security-constrained economic dispatch, and automatic generation control programs. DOWNLOAD PAPER Electric commitment, security-constrained economic dispatch, and automatic generation control sub-models. Each sub resolutions and operating strategies can be explored. FESTIV produces not only economic metrics but also

On the Development of Spray Submodels Based on Droplet Size Moments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, J. C.; Watkins, A. P.

2002-11-01

Hitherto, all polydisperse spray models have been based on discretising the liquid flow field into groups of equally sized droplets. The authors have recently developed a spray model that captures the full polydisperse nature of the spray flow without using droplet size classes (Beck, 2000, Ph.D thesis, UMIST; Beck and Watkins, 2001, Proc. R. Soc. London A). The parameters used to describe the distribution of droplet sizes are the moments of the droplet size distribution function. Transport equations are written for the two moments which represent the liquid mass and surface area, and two more moments representing the sum of drop radii and droplet number are approximated via use of a presumed distribution function, which is allowed to vary in space and time. The velocities to be used in the two transport equations are obtained by defining moment-average quantities and constructing further transport equations for the relevant moment-average velocities. An equation for the energy of the liquid phase and standard gas phase equations, including a k-ɛ turbulence model, are also solved. All the equations are solved in an Eulerian framework using the finite-volume approach, and the phases are coupled through source terms. Effects such as interphase drag, droplet breakup, and droplet-droplet collisions are also captured through the use of source terms. The development of the submodels to describe these effects is the subject of this paper. All the source terms for the hydrodynamics of the spray are derived in this paper in terms of the four moments of the droplet size distribution in order to find the net effect on the whole spray flow field. The development of similar submodels to describe heat and mass transfer effects between the phases is the subject of a further paper (Beck and Watkins, 2001, J. Heat Fluid Flow). The model has been applied to a wide variety of different sprays, including high-pressure diesel sprays, wide-angle solid-cone water sprays, hollow-cone spray s, and evaporating sprays. The comparisons of the results with experimental data show that the model performs well. The interphase drag model, along with the model for the turbulent dispersion of the liquid, produces excellent agreement in the spray penetration results, and the moment-average velocity approach gives good radial distributions of droplet size, showing the capability of the model to predict polydisperse behaviour. Good submodel performance results in droplet breakup, collisions, and evaporation effects (see (Beck and Watkins, 2001, J. Heat Fluid Flow)) also being captured successfully.

An Approach to Quantitative Fiscal Planning. Phase I Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gaylord, Thomas A.

The development of time-series revenue projections for University of Alaska Budget Request Units (BRUs) is described. Fiscal planning modes in higher education are reviewed, along with the attributes of judgmental, time-series, and causal forecasting techniques. The following six submodels comprise the necessary dimensions of the comprehensive…

SOME QUANTITATIVE ASPECTS OF THE INSTRUCTIONAL PROCESS.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

GAVIN, WILLIAM J.; SPITZER, MURRAY

THE DATA FROM THE SEVERAL STUDIES ANALYZED IN THIS REPORT HAVE BEEN COLLECTED AS PART OF AN ON-GOING EFFORT TO IMPLEMENT THE ABT ASSOCIATES' EDUCATION COST EFFECTIVENESS INSTRUCTIONAL PROCESS SUBMODEL, WHICH IS DEVELOPING TECHNIQUES TO EVALUATE THE QUANTITATIVE, CAUSE-AND-EFFECT RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE INSTRUCTIONAL PROCESS AND SCHOLASTIC…

A Self Consistent RF Discharge, Plasma Chemistry and Surface Model for Plasma Enhanced Chemical Vapor Deposition

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-06-30

consists of three submodels for the electron kinetics, plasma chemistry , and surface deposition kinetics for a-Si:H deposited from radio frequency...properties. Plasma enhanced, Chemical vapor deposition, amorphous silicon, Modeling, Electron kinetics, Plasma chemistry , Deposition kinetics, Rf discharge, Silane, Film properties, Silicon.

SEAGRASS STRESS RESPONSE MODEL: THE IMPORTANCE OF LIGHT, TEMPERATURE, SEDIMENTATION AND GEOCHEMISTRY

EPA Science Inventory

Our objective is to define interactions between seagrass and water-column and sediment stressors. The model was developed and optimized for sediments in Thalassia testudinum seagrass beds of Lower Laguna Madre, Texas, USA and is composed of a plant sub-model and a sediment diagen...

N+3 Aircraft Concept Designs and Trade Studies. Volume 2; Appendices-Design Methodologies for Aerodynamics, Structures, Weight, and Thermodynamic Cycles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greitzer, E. M.; Bonnefoy, P. A.; delaRosaBlanco, E.; Dorbian, C. S.; Drela, M.; Hall, D. K.; Hansman, R. J.; Hileman, J. I.; Liebeck, R. H.; Lovegren, J.;

REGIONAL-SCALE (1000 KM) MODEL OF PHOTOCHEMICAL AIR POLLUTION. PART 2. INPUT PROCESSOR NETWORK DESIGN

EPA Science Inventory

Detailed specifications are given for a network of data processors and submodels that can generate the parameter fields required by the regional oxidant model formulated in Part 1 of this report. Operations performed by the processor network include simulation of the motion and d...

Design of Adaptive Organizations for Effects Based Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-04-04

8217 Activities. The economic and infrastructure sub-model included nodes for each of the main essential services: water , electricity, sewage, health, and...Data * frack !d Numeric T :Mistil» Track Data 0 Event: String InttrctpUK DJIJ Inttrctptor Id Nunwric : ATI5 Tactsejl Piclurt • KA pan - R

Natural and drought scenarios in an east central Amazon forest: Fidelity of the Community Land Model 3.5 with three biogeochemical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakaguchi, Koichi; Zeng, Xubin; Christoffersen, Bradley J.; Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia; Saleska, Scott R.; Brando, Paulo M.

2011-03-01

Recent development of general circulation models involves biogeochemical cycles: flows of carbon and other chemical species that circulate through the Earth system. Such models are valuable tools for future projections of climate, but still bear large uncertainties in the model simulations. One of the regions with especially high uncertainty is the Amazon forest where large-scale dieback associated with the changing climate is predicted by several models. In order to better understand the capability and weakness of global-scale land-biogeochemical models in simulating a tropical ecosystem under the present day as well as significantly drier climates, we analyzed the off-line simulations for an east central Amazon forest by the Community Land Model version 3.5 of the National Center for Atmospheric Research and its three independent biogeochemical submodels (CASA', CN, and DGVM). Intense field measurements carried out under Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia, including forest response to drought from a throughfall exclusion experiment, are utilized to evaluate the whole spectrum of biogeophysical and biogeochemical aspects of the models. Our analysis shows reasonable correspondence in momentum and energy turbulent fluxes, but it highlights three processes that are not in agreement with observations: (1) inconsistent seasonality in carbon fluxes, (2) biased biomass size and allocation, and (3) overestimation of vegetation stress to short-term drought but underestimation of biomass loss from long-term drought. Without resolving these issues the modeled feedbacks from the biosphere in future climate projections would be questionable. We suggest possible directions for model improvements and also emphasize the necessity of more studies using a variety of in situ data for both driving and evaluating land-biogeochemical models.

Revisiting ocean carbon sequestration by direct injection: A global carbon budget perspective Fabian Reith, David P. Keller & Andreas Oschlies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reith, F.; Keller, D. P.; Martin, T.; Oschlies, A.

2015-12-01

Marchetti [1977] proposed that CO2 could be directly injected into the deep ocean to mitigate its rapid build-up in the atmosphere. Although previous studies have investigated biogeochemical and climatic effects of injecting CO2 into the ocean, they have not looked at global carbon cycle feedbacks and backfluxes that are important for accounting. Using an Earth System Model of intermediate complexity we simulated the injection of CO2 into the deep ocean during a high CO2 emissions scenario. At seven sites 0.1 GtC yr-1 was injected at three different depths (3 separate experiments) between the years 2020 and 2120. After the 100-year injection period, our simulations continued until the year 3020 to assess the long-term dynamics. In addition, we investigated the effects of marine sediment feedbacks during the experiments by running the model with and without a sediment sub-model. Our results, in regards to efficiency (the residence time of injected CO2) and seawater chemistry changes, are similar to previous studies. However, from a carbon budget perspective the targeted cumulative atmospheric CO2 reduction of 70 GtC was never reached. This was caused by the atmosphere-to-terrestrial and/or atmosphere-to-ocean carbon fluxes (relative to the control run), which were effected by the reduction in atmospheric carbon. With respect to global oceanic carbon, the respective carbon cycle-climate feedbacks led to an even smaller efficiency than indicated by tracing the injected CO2. The ocean also unexpectedly took up carbon after the injection at 1500 m was stopped because of a deep convection event in the Southern Ocean. These findings highlighted that the accounting of CO2 injection would be challenging.

Revised mineral dust emissions in the atmospheric chemistry-climate model EMAC (MESSy 2.52 DU_Astitha1 KKDU2017 patch)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klingmüller, Klaus; Metzger, Swen; Abdelkader, Mohamed; Karydis, Vlassis A.; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Pozzer, Andrea; Lelieveld, Jos

2018-03-01

To improve the aeolian dust budget calculations with the global ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry-climate model (EMAC), which combines the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) with the ECMWF/Hamburg (ECHAM) climate model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg based on a weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), we have implemented new input data and updates of the emission scheme.The data set comprises land cover classification, vegetation, clay fraction and topography. It is based on up-to-date observations, which are crucial to account for the rapid changes of deserts and semi-arid regions in recent decades. The new Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based land cover and vegetation data are time dependent, and the effect of long-term trends and variability of the relevant parameters is therefore considered by the emission scheme. All input data have a spatial resolution of at least 0.1° compared to 1° in the previous version, equipping the model for high-resolution simulations.We validate the updates by comparing the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm wavelength from a 1-year simulation at T106 (about 1.1°) resolution with Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and MODIS observations, the 10 µm dust AOD (DAOD) with Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) retrievals, and dust concentration and deposition results with observations from the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) dust benchmark data set. The update significantly improves agreement with the observations and is therefore recommended to be used in future simulations.

Injury Profile SIMulator, a Qualitative Aggregative Modelling Framework to Predict Crop Injury Profile as a Function of Cropping Practices, and the Abiotic and Biotic Environment. I. Conceptual Bases

PubMed Central

Aubertot, Jean-Noël; Robin, Marie-Hélène

2013-01-01

The limitation of damage caused by pests (plant pathogens, weeds, and animal pests) in any agricultural crop requires integrated management strategies. Although significant efforts have been made to i) develop, and to a lesser extent ii) combine genetic, biological, cultural, physical and chemical control methods in Integrated Pest Management (IPM) strategies (vertical integration), there is a need for tools to help manage Injury Profiles (horizontal integration). Farmers design cropping systems according to their goals, knowledge, cognition and perception of socio-economic and technological drivers as well as their physical, biological, and chemical environment. In return, a given cropping system, in a given production situation will exhibit a unique injury profile, defined as a dynamic vector of the main injuries affecting the crop. This simple description of agroecosystems has been used to develop IPSIM (Injury Profile SIMulator), a modelling framework to predict injury profiles as a function of cropping practices, abiotic and biotic environment. Due to the tremendous complexity of agroecosystems, a simple holistic aggregative approach was chosen instead of attempting to couple detailed models. This paper describes the conceptual bases of IPSIM, an aggregative hierarchical framework and a method to help specify IPSIM for a given crop. A companion paper presents a proof of concept of the proposed approach for a single disease of a major crop (eyespot on wheat). In the future, IPSIM could be used as a tool to help design ex-ante IPM strategies at the field scale if coupled with a damage sub-model, and a multicriteria sub-model that assesses the social, environmental, and economic performances of simulated agroecosystems. In addition, IPSIM could also be used to help make diagnoses on commercial fields. It is important to point out that the presented concepts are not crop- or pest-specific and that IPSIM can be used on any crop. PMID:24019908

The Paleoclimate Uncertainty Cascade: Tracking Proxy Errors Via Proxy System Models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emile-Geay, J.; Dee, S. G.; Evans, M. N.; Adkins, J. F.

2014-12-01

Paleoclimatic observations are, by nature, imperfect recorders of climate variables. Empirical approaches to their calibration are challenged by the presence of multiple sources of uncertainty, which may confound the interpretation of signals and the identifiability of the noise. In this talk, I will demonstrate the utility of proxy system models (PSMs, Evans et al, 2013, 10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.05.024) to quantify the impact of all known sources of uncertainty. PSMs explicitly encode the mechanistic knowledge of the physical, chemical, biological and geological processes from which paleoclimatic observations arise. PSMs may be divided into sensor, archive and observation components, all of which may conspire to obscure climate signals in actual paleo-observations. As an example, we couple a PSM for the δ18O of speleothem calcite to an isotope-enabled climate model (Dee et al, submitted) to analyze the potential of this measurement as a proxy for precipitation amount. A simple soil/karst model (Partin et al, 2013, 10.1130/G34718.1) is used as sensor model, while a hiatus-permitting chronological model (Haslett & Parnell, 2008, 10.1111/j.1467-9876.2008.00623.x) is used as part of the observation model. This subdivision allows us to explicitly model the transformation from precipitation amount to speleothem calcite δ18O as a multi-stage process via a physical and chemical sensor model, and a stochastic archive model. By illustrating the PSM's behavior within the context of the climate simulations, we show how estimates of climate variability may be affected by each submodel's transformation of the signal. By specifying idealized climate signals(periodic vs. episodic, slow vs. fast) to the PSM, we investigate how frequency and amplitude patterns are modulated by sensor and archive submodels. To the extent that the PSM and the climate models are representative of real world processes, then the results may help us more accurately interpret existing paleodata, characterize their uncertainties, and design sampling strategies that exploit their strengths while mitigating their weaknesses.

Injury Profile SIMulator, a qualitative aggregative modelling framework to predict crop injury profile as a function of cropping practices, and the abiotic and biotic environment. I. Conceptual bases.

PubMed

Aubertot, Jean-Noël; Robin, Marie-Hélène

2013-01-01

The limitation of damage caused by pests (plant pathogens, weeds, and animal pests) in any agricultural crop requires integrated management strategies. Although significant efforts have been made to i) develop, and to a lesser extent ii) combine genetic, biological, cultural, physical and chemical control methods in Integrated Pest Management (IPM) strategies (vertical integration), there is a need for tools to help manage Injury Profiles (horizontal integration). Farmers design cropping systems according to their goals, knowledge, cognition and perception of socio-economic and technological drivers as well as their physical, biological, and chemical environment. In return, a given cropping system, in a given production situation will exhibit a unique injury profile, defined as a dynamic vector of the main injuries affecting the crop. This simple description of agroecosystems has been used to develop IPSIM (Injury Profile SIMulator), a modelling framework to predict injury profiles as a function of cropping practices, abiotic and biotic environment. Due to the tremendous complexity of agroecosystems, a simple holistic aggregative approach was chosen instead of attempting to couple detailed models. This paper describes the conceptual bases of IPSIM, an aggregative hierarchical framework and a method to help specify IPSIM for a given crop. A companion paper presents a proof of concept of the proposed approach for a single disease of a major crop (eyespot on wheat). In the future, IPSIM could be used as a tool to help design ex-ante IPM strategies at the field scale if coupled with a damage sub-model, and a multicriteria sub-model that assesses the social, environmental, and economic performances of simulated agroecosystems. In addition, IPSIM could also be used to help make diagnoses on commercial fields. It is important to point out that the presented concepts are not crop- or pest-specific and that IPSIM can be used on any crop.

Intercomparison of the capabilities of simplified climate models to project the effects of aviation CO2 on climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khodayari, Arezoo; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Olsen, Seth C.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje; Lund, Marianne T.; Waitz, Ian; Wolfe, Philip; Forster, Piers M.; Meinshausen, Malte; Lee, David S.; Lim, Ling L.

2013-08-01

This study evaluates the capabilities of the carbon cycle and energy balance treatments relative to the effect of aviation CO2 emissions on climate in several existing simplified climate models (SCMs) that are either being used or could be used for evaluating the effects of aviation on climate. Since these models are used in policy-related analyses, it is important that the capabilities of such models represent the state of understanding of the science. We compare the Aviation Environmental Portfolio Management Tool (APMT) Impacts climate model, two models used at the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo (CICERO-1 and CICERO-2), the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) model as described in Jain et al. (1994), the simple Linear Climate response model (LinClim) and the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change version 6 (MAGICC6). In this paper we select scenarios to illustrate the behavior of the carbon cycle and energy balance models in these SCMs. This study is not intended to determine the absolute and likely range of the expected climate response in these models but to highlight specific features in model representations of the carbon cycle and energy balance models that need to be carefully considered in studies of aviation effects on climate. These results suggest that carbon cycle models that use linear impulse-response-functions (IRF) in combination with separate equations describing air-sea and air-biosphere exchange of CO2 can account for the dominant nonlinearities in the climate system that would otherwise not have been captured with an IRF alone, and hence, produce a close representation of more complex carbon cycle models. Moreover, results suggest that an energy balance model with a 2-box ocean sub-model and IRF tuned to reproduce the response of coupled Earth system models produces a close representation of the globally-averaged temperature response of more complex energy balance models.

Open Software Tools Applied to Jordan's National Multi-Agent Water Management Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knox, Stephen; Meier, Philipp; Harou, Julien; Yoon, Jim; Selby, Philip; Lachaut, Thibaut; Klassert, Christian; Avisse, Nicolas; Khadem, Majed; Tilmant, Amaury; Gorelick, Steven

2016-04-01

Jordan is the fourth most water scarce country in the world, where demand exceeds supply in a politically and demographically unstable context. The Jordan Water Project (JWP) aims to perform policy evaluation by modelling the hydrology, economics, and governance of Jordan's water resource system. The multidisciplinary nature of the project requires a modelling software system capable of integrating submodels from multiple disciplines into a single decision making process and communicating results to stakeholders. This requires a tool for building an integrated model and a system where diverse data sets can be managed and visualised. The integrated Jordan model is built using Pynsim, an open-source multi-agent simulation framework implemented in Python. Pynsim operates on network structures of nodes and links and supports institutional hierarchies, where an institution represents a grouping of nodes, links or other institutions. At each time step, code within each node, link and institution can executed independently, allowing for their fully autonomous behaviour. Additionally, engines (sub-models) perform actions over the entire network or on a subset of the network, such as taking a decision on a set of nodes. Pynsim is modular in design, allowing distinct modules to be modified easily without affecting others. Data management and visualisation is performed using Hydra (www.hydraplatform.org), an open software platform allowing users to manage network structure and data. The Hydra data manager connects to Pynsim, providing necessary input parameters for the integrated model. By providing a high-level portal to the model, Hydra removes a barrier between the users of the model (researchers, stakeholders, planners etc) and the model itself, allowing them to manage data, run the model and visualise results all through a single user interface. Pynsim's ability to represent institutional hierarchies, inter-network communication and the separation of node, link and institutional logic from higher level processes (engine) suit JWP's requirements. The use of Hydra Platform and Pynsim helps make complex customised models such as the JWP model easier to run and manage with international groups of researchers.

Model Verification and Validation Concepts for a Probabilistic Fracture Assessment Model to Predict Cracking of Knife Edge Seals in the Space Shuttle Main Engine High Pressure Oxidizer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pai, Shantaram S.; Riha, David S.

2013-01-01

Physics-based models are routinely used to predict the performance of engineered systems to make decisions such as when to retire system components, how to extend the life of an aging system, or if a new design will be safe or available. Model verification and validation (V&V) is a process to establish credibility in model predictions. Ideally, carefully controlled validation experiments will be designed and performed to validate models or submodels. In reality, time and cost constraints limit experiments and even model development. This paper describes elements of model V&V during the development and application of a probabilistic fracture assessment model to predict cracking in space shuttle main engine high-pressure oxidizer turbopump knife-edge seals. The objective of this effort was to assess the probability of initiating and growing a crack to a specified failure length in specific flight units for different usage and inspection scenarios. The probabilistic fracture assessment model developed in this investigation combined a series of submodels describing the usage, temperature history, flutter tendencies, tooth stresses and numbers of cycles, fatigue cracking, nondestructive inspection, and finally the probability of failure. The analysis accounted for unit-to-unit variations in temperature, flutter limit state, flutter stress magnitude, and fatigue life properties. The investigation focused on the calculation of relative risk rather than absolute risk between the usage scenarios. Verification predictions were first performed for three units with known usage and cracking histories to establish credibility in the model predictions. Then, numerous predictions were performed for an assortment of operating units that had flown recently or that were projected for future flights. Calculations were performed using two NASA-developed software tools: NESSUS(Registered Trademark) for the probabilistic analysis, and NASGRO(Registered Trademark) for the fracture mechanics analysis. The goal of these predictions was to provide additional information to guide decisions on the potential of reusing existing and installed units prior to the new design certification.

Dynamical Lorentz symmetry breaking in 3D and charge fractionalization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Charneski, B.; Gomes, M.; Silva, A. J. da

2009-03-15

We analyze the breaking of Lorentz invariance in a 3D model of fermion fields self-coupled through four-fermion interactions. The low-energy limit of the theory contains various submodels which are similar to those used in the study of graphene or in the description of irrational charge fractionalization.

MCFire model technical description

Treesearch

David R. Conklin; James M. Lenihan; Dominique Bachelet; Ronald P. Neilson; John B. Kim

2016-01-01

MCFire is a computer program that simulates the occurrence and effects of wildfire on natural vegetation, as a submodel within the MC1 dynamic global vegetation model. This report is a technical description of the algorithms and parameter values used in MCFire, intended to encapsulate its design and features a higher level that is more conceptual than the level...

Probability model for analyzing fire management alternatives: theory and structure

Treesearch

Frederick W. Bratten

1982-01-01

A theoretical probability model has been developed for analyzing program alternatives in fire management. It includes submodels or modules for predicting probabilities of fire behavior, fire occurrence, fire suppression, effects of fire on land resources, and financial effects of fire. Generalized "fire management situations" are used to represent actual fire...

Modeling Effects of Annealing on Coal Char Reactivity to O 2 and CO 2 , Based on Preparation Conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holland, Troy; Bhat, Sham; Marcy, Peter

Oxy-fired coal combustion is a promising potential carbon capture technology. Predictive computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations are valuable tools in evaluating and deploying oxyfuel and other carbon capture technologies, either as retrofit technologies or for new construction. However, accurate predictive combustor simulations require physically realistic submodels with low computational requirements. A recent sensitivity analysis of a detailed char conversion model (Char Conversion Kinetics (CCK)) found thermal annealing to be an extremely sensitive submodel. In the present work, further analysis of the previous annealing model revealed significant disagreement with numerous datasets from experiments performed after that annealing model was developed. Themore » annealing model was accordingly extended to reflect experimentally observed reactivity loss, because of the thermal annealing of a variety of coals under diverse char preparation conditions. The model extension was informed by a Bayesian calibration analysis. In addition, since oxyfuel conditions include extraordinarily high levels of CO 2, the development of a first-ever CO 2 reactivity loss model due to annealing is presented.« less

Modeling Effects of Annealing on Coal Char Reactivity to O 2 and CO 2 , Based on Preparation Conditions

DOE PAGES

Holland, Troy; Bhat, Sham; Marcy, Peter; ...

2017-08-25

Oxy-fired coal combustion is a promising potential carbon capture technology. Predictive computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations are valuable tools in evaluating and deploying oxyfuel and other carbon capture technologies, either as retrofit technologies or for new construction. However, accurate predictive combustor simulations require physically realistic submodels with low computational requirements. A recent sensitivity analysis of a detailed char conversion model (Char Conversion Kinetics (CCK)) found thermal annealing to be an extremely sensitive submodel. In the present work, further analysis of the previous annealing model revealed significant disagreement with numerous datasets from experiments performed after that annealing model was developed. Themore » annealing model was accordingly extended to reflect experimentally observed reactivity loss, because of the thermal annealing of a variety of coals under diverse char preparation conditions. The model extension was informed by a Bayesian calibration analysis. In addition, since oxyfuel conditions include extraordinarily high levels of CO 2, the development of a first-ever CO 2 reactivity loss model due to annealing is presented.« less

Study of vapor flow into a capillary acquisition device. [for cryogenic rocket propellants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dodge, F. T.; Bowles, E. B.

1982-01-01

An analytical model was developed that prescribes the conditions for vapor flow through the window screen of a start basket. Several original submodels were developed as part of this model. The submodels interrelate such phenomena as the effect of internal evaporation of the liquid, the bubble point change of a screen in the presence of wicking, the conditions for drying out of a screen through a combination of evaporation and pressure difference, the vapor inflow rate across a wet screen as a function of pressure difference, and the effect on wicking of a difference between the static pressure of the liquid reservoir and the surrounding vapor. Most of these interrelations were verified by a series of separate effects tests, which were also used to determine certain empirical constants in the models. The equations of the model were solved numerically for typical start basket designs, and a simplified start basket was constructed to verify the predictions, using both volatile and nonvolatile test liquids. The test results verified the trends predicted by the model.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Yongxi

We propose an integrated modeling framework to optimally locate wireless charging facilities along a highway corridor to provide sufficient in-motion charging. The integrated model consists of a master, Infrastructure Planning Model that determines best locations with integrated two sub-models that explicitly capture energy consumption and charging and the interactions between electric vehicle and wireless charging technologies, geometrics of highway corridors, speed, and auxiliary system. The model is implemented in an illustrative case study of a highway corridor of Interstate 5 in Oregon. We found that the cost of establishing the charging lane is sensitive and increases with the speed tomore » achieve. Through sensitivity analyses, we gain better understanding on the extent of impacts of geometric characteristics of highways and battery capacity on the charging lane design.« less

A single-station empirical model for TEC over the Antarctic Peninsula using GPS-TEC data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Jiandi; Wang, Zhengtao; Jiang, Weiping; Zhao, Zhenzhen; Zhang, Bingbing

2017-02-01

Compared with regional or global total electron content (TEC) empirical models, single-station TEC empirical models may exhibit higher accuracy in describing TEC spatial and temporal variations for a single station. In this paper, a new single-station empirical total electron content (TEC) model, called SSM-month, for the O'Higgins Station in the Antarctic Peninsula is proposed by using Global Positioning System (GPS)-TEC data from 01 January 2004 to 30 June 2015. The diurnal variation of TEC in the O'Higgins Station may have changing features in different months, sometimes even in opposite forms, because of ionospheric phenomena, such as the Mid-latitude Summer Nighttime Anomaly (MSNA). To avoid the influence of different diurnal variations, the concept of monthly modeling is proposed in this study. The SSM-month model, which is established by month (including 12 submodels that correspond to the 12 months), can effectively describe the diurnal variation of TEC in different months. Each submodel of the SSM-month model exhibits good agreement with GPS-TEC input data. Overall, the SSM-month model fits the input data with a bias of 0.03 TECU (total electron content unit, 1 TECU = 1016 el m-2) and a standard deviation of 2.78 TECU. This model, which benefits from the modeling method, can effectively describe the MSNA phenomenon without implementing any modeling correction. TEC data derived from Center for Orbit Determination in Europe global ionosphere maps (CODE GIMs), International Reference Ionosphere 2012 (IRI2012), and NeQuick are compared with the SSM-month model in the years of 2001 and 2015-2016. Result shows that the SSM-month model exhibits good consistency with CODE GIMs, which is better than that of IRI2012 and NeQuick, in the O'Higgins Station on the test days.

A physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for atrazine and its main metabolites in the adult male C57BL/6 mouse

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lin Zhoumeng; Interdisciplinary Toxicology Program, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602; Fisher, Jeffrey W.

Atrazine (ATR) is a chlorotriazine herbicide that is widely used and relatively persistent in the environment. In laboratory rodents, excessive exposure to ATR is detrimental to the reproductive, immune, and nervous systems. To better understand the toxicokinetics of ATR and to fill the need for a mouse model, a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for ATR and its main chlorotriazine metabolites (Cl-TRIs) desethyl atrazine (DE), desisopropyl atrazine (DIP), and didealkyl atrazine (DACT) was developed for the adult male C57BL/6 mouse. Taking advantage of all relevant and recently made available mouse-specific data, a flow-limited PBPK model was constructed. The ATR andmore » DACT sub-models included blood, brain, liver, kidney, richly and slowly perfused tissue compartments, as well as plasma protein binding and red blood cell binding, whereas the DE and DIP sub-models were constructed as simple five-compartment models. The model adequately simulated plasma levels of ATR and Cl-TRIs and urinary dosimetry of Cl-TRIs at four single oral dose levels (250, 125, 25, and 5 mg/kg). Additionally, the model adequately described the dose dependency of brain and liver ATR and DACT concentrations. Cumulative urinary DACT amounts were accurately predicted across a wide dose range, suggesting the model's potential use for extrapolation to human exposures by performing reverse dosimetry. The model was validated using previously reported data for plasma ATR and DACT in mice and rats. Overall, besides being the first mouse PBPK model for ATR and its Cl-TRIs, this model, by analogy, provides insights into tissue dosimetry for rats. The model could be used in tissue dosimetry prediction and as an aid in the exposure assessment to this widely used herbicide.« less

Computational Combustion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Westbrook, C K; Mizobuchi, Y; Poinsot, T J

2004-08-26

Progress in the field of computational combustion over the past 50 years is reviewed. Particular attention is given to those classes of models that are common to most system modeling efforts, including fluid dynamics, chemical kinetics, liquid sprays, and turbulent flame models. The developments in combustion modeling are placed into the time-dependent context of the accompanying exponential growth in computer capabilities and Moore's Law. Superimposed on this steady growth, the occasional sudden advances in modeling capabilities are identified and their impacts are discussed. Integration of submodels into system models for spark ignition, diesel and homogeneous charge, compression ignition engines, surfacemore » and catalytic combustion, pulse combustion, and detonations are described. Finally, the current state of combustion modeling is illustrated by descriptions of a very large jet lifted 3D turbulent hydrogen flame with direct numerical simulation and 3D large eddy simulations of practical gas burner combustion devices.« less

A Decision Making Methodology in Support of the Business Rules Lifecycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wild, Christopher; Rosca, Daniela

1998-01-01

The business rules that underlie an enterprise emerge as a new category of system requirements that represent decisions about how to run the business, and which are characterized by their business-orientation and their propensity for change. In this report, we introduce a decision making methodology which addresses several aspects of the business rules lifecycle: acquisition, deployment and evolution. We describe a meta-model for representing business rules in terms of an enterprise model, and also a decision support submodel for reasoning about and deriving the rules. The possibility for lifecycle automated assistance is demonstrated in terms of the automatic extraction of business rules from the decision structure. A system based on the metamodel has been implemented, including the extraction algorithm. This is the final report for Daniela Rosca's PhD fellowship. It describes the work we have done over the past year, current research and the list of publications associated with her thesis topic.

Sequential optimization of a terrestrial biosphere model constrained by multiple satellite based products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichii, K.; Kondo, M.; Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Nemani, R. R.

2012-12-01

Various satellite-based spatial products such as evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP) are now produced by integration of ground and satellite observations. Effective use of these multiple satellite-based products in terrestrial biosphere models is an important step toward better understanding of terrestrial carbon and water cycles. However, due to the complexity of terrestrial biosphere models with large number of model parameters, the application of these spatial data sets in terrestrial biosphere models is difficult. In this study, we established an effective but simple framework to refine a terrestrial biosphere model, Biome-BGC, using multiple satellite-based products as constraints. We tested the framework in the monsoon Asia region covered by AsiaFlux observations. The framework is based on the hierarchical analysis (Wang et al. 2009) with model parameter optimization constrained by satellite-based spatial data. The Biome-BGC model is separated into several tiers to minimize the freedom of model parameter selections and maximize the independency from the whole model. For example, the snow sub-model is first optimized using MODIS snow cover product, followed by soil water sub-model optimized by satellite-based ET (estimated by an empirical upscaling method; Support Vector Regression (SVR) method; Yang et al. 2007), photosynthesis model optimized by satellite-based GPP (based on SVR method), and respiration and residual carbon cycle models optimized by biomass data. As a result of initial assessment, we found that most of default sub-models (e.g. snow, water cycle and carbon cycle) showed large deviations from remote sensing observations. However, these biases were removed by applying the proposed framework. For example, gross primary productivities were initially underestimated in boreal and temperate forest and overestimated in tropical forests. However, the parameter optimization scheme successfully reduced these biases. Our analysis shows that terrestrial carbon and water cycle simulations in monsoon Asia were greatly improved, and the use of multiple satellite observations with this framework is an effective way for improving terrestrial biosphere models.

Analysing biomass torrefaction supply chain costs.

PubMed

Svanberg, Martin; Olofsson, Ingemar; Flodén, Jonas; Nordin, Anders

2013-08-01

The objective of the present work was to develop a techno-economic system model to evaluate how logistics and production parameters affect the torrefaction supply chain costs under Swedish conditions. The model consists of four sub-models: (1) supply system, (2) a complete energy and mass balance of drying, torrefaction and densification, (3) investment and operating costs of a green field, stand-alone torrefaction pellet plant, and (4) distribution system to the gate of an end user. The results show that the torrefaction supply chain reaps significant economies of scale up to a plant size of about 150-200 kiloton dry substance per year (ktonDS/year), for which the total supply chain costs accounts to 31.8 euro per megawatt hour based on lower heating value (€/MWhLHV). Important parameters affecting total cost are amount of available biomass, biomass premium, logistics equipment, biomass moisture content, drying technology, torrefaction mass yield and torrefaction plant capital expenditures (CAPEX). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

TKKMOD: A computer simulation program for an integrated wind diesel system. Version 1.0: Document and user guide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manninen, L. M.

1993-12-01

The document describes TKKMOD, a simulation model developed at Helsinki University of Technology for a specific wind-diesel system layout, with special emphasis on the battery submodel and its use in simulation. The model has been included into the European wind-diesel modeling software package WDLTOOLS under the CEC JOULE project 'Engineering Design Tools for Wind-Diesel Systems' (JOUR-0078). WDLTOOLS serves as the user interface and processes the input and output data of different logistic simulation models developed by the project participants. TKKMOD cannot be run without this shell. The report only describes the simulation principles and model specific parameters of TKKMOD and gives model specific user instructions. The input and output data processing performed outside this model is described in the documentation of the shell. The simulation model is utilized for calculation of long-term performance of the reference system configuration for given wind and load conditions. The main results are energy flows, losses in the system components, diesel fuel consumption, and the number of diesel engine starts.

New submodel for watershed-scale simulations of fecal bacteria fate and transport at agricultural and pasture lands

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Microbial contamination of waters is the critical public health issue. The watershed-scale process-based modeling of bacteria fate and transport (F&T) has been proven to serve as the useful tool for predicting microbial water quality and evaluating management practices. The objective of this work is...

Aerothermal modeling program, phase 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Srinivasan, R.; Reynolds, R.; Ball, I.; Berry, R.; Johnson, K.; Mongia, H.

1983-01-01

Aerothermal submodels used in analytical combustor models are analyzed. The models described include turbulence and scalar transport, gaseous full combustion, spray evaporation/combustion, soot formation and oxidation, and radiation. The computational scheme is discussed in relation to boundary conditions and convergence criteria. Also presented is the data base for benchmark quality test cases and an analysis of simple flows.

Improving longleaf pine mortality predictions in the Southern Variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator

Treesearch

R. Justin DeRose; John D. Shaw; Giorgio Vacchiano; James N. Long

2008-01-01

The Southern Variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS-SN) is made up of individual submodels that predict tree growth, recruitment and mortality. Forest managers on Ft. Bragg, North Carolina, discovered biologically unrealistic longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) size-density predictions at large diameters when using FVS-SN to project red-cockaded...

The Pliocene-Pleistocene transition and the onset of the Northern Hemisphere glacial inception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, A.; Calov, R.; Ganopolski, A.

2011-12-01

The Pliocene-Pleistocene transition (PPT, ca. 3.3-2.4 Ma BP) marks a shift in the Earth's climate and is believed to coincide with the inception of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets. This transition is not only characterized by a gradual reduction in atmospheric CO2 concentration, paleo records also show a strengthening in the amplitude of δ18O data and intensified ice rafted debris deposition in the North Atlantic. Previous modeling studies have demonstrated that the drop in atmospheric CO2 plays an important role in the glaciation of the NH ice sheets, and more specifically, it is considered to be the primary cause of the glaciation of Greenland. Here we apply a novel approach to produce transient simulations of the entire PPT, in order to study the glaciation of Greenland and the NH ice sheets and additionally, to investigate which conditions are necessary for full-scale glaciation. The fully-coupled Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 is used to explore the effects of a suite of orbital and CO2 forcing scenarios on total NH glaciation. CLIMBER-2 includes low-resolution sub-models of the atmosphere, vegetation, ocean and ice sheets - the latter is designed to simulate the big NH ice sheets with a rather low resolution (and high computational efficiency). As a refinement, the results of the global simulations are then used to force regional simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) using the higher resolution (20 km) regional climate-ice sheet model, REMBO-SICOPOLIS. We present results of transient simulations driven by orbital forcing and several CO2 reduction scenarios that are consistent with best estimates from data for this time period. We discuss the growth and persistence of the NH ice sheets in terms of the forcing and feedbacks involved. Additionally, we present a set of simulations with the growth of the NH ice sheets disabled, in order to quantify the effect the large ice sheets have on global and regional temperature anomalies. By simulating the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) in our high resolution coupled global-regional approach, we identify with greater precision, the conditions neccesary for inception of the GIS and link these to global climatic changes.

The Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator

Treesearch

Elizabeth Reinhardt; Nicholas L. Crookston

2003-01-01

The Fire and Fuels Extension (FFE) to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) simulates fuel dynamics and potential fire behaviour over time, in the context of stand development and management. Existing models of fire behavior and fire effects were added to FVS to form this extension. New submodels representing snag and fuel dynamics were created to complete the linkages...

Modeling the spatially dynamic distribution of humans in the Oregon (USA) coast range.

Treesearch

Jeffrey D. Kline; David L. Azuma; Alissa Moses

2003-01-01

A common approach to land use change analyses in multidisciplinary landscape-level studies is to delineate discrete forest and non-forest or urban and non-urban land use categories to serve as inputs into sets of integrated sub-models describing socioeconomic and ecological processes. Such discrete land use categories, however, may be inappropriate when the...

The development of estimated methodology for interfacial adhesion of semiconductor coatings having an enormous mismatch extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Chang-Chun; Huang, Pei-Chen

2018-05-01

The long-term reliability of multi-stacked coatings suffering the bending or rolling load was a severe challenge to extend the lifespan of foregoing structure. In addition, the adhesive strength of dissimilar materials was regarded as the major mechanical reliability concerns among multi-stacked films. However, the significant scale-mismatch from several nano-meter to micro-meter among the multi-stacked coatings causing the numerical accuracy and converged capability issues on fracture-based simulation approach. For those reasons, this study proposed the FEA-based multi-level submodeling and multi-point constraint (MPC) technique to conquer the foregoing scale-mismatch issue. The results indicated that the decent region of first and second-order submodeling can achieve the small error of 1.27% compared with the experimental result and significantly reduced the mesh density and computing time. Moreover, the MPC method adopted in FEA simulation also shown only 0.54% error when the boundary of selected local region was away the concerned critical region following the Saint-Venant principle. In this investigation, two FEA-based approaches were used to conquer the evidently scale mismatch issue when the adhesive strengths of micro and nano-scale multi-stacked coating were taken into account.

An optimal strategy for functional mapping of dynamic trait loci.

PubMed

Jin, Tianbo; Li, Jiahan; Guo, Ying; Zhou, Xiaojing; Yang, Runqing; Wu, Rongling

2010-02-01

As an emerging powerful approach for mapping quantitative trait loci (QTLs) responsible for dynamic traits, functional mapping models the time-dependent mean vector with biologically meaningful equations and are likely to generate biologically relevant and interpretable results. Given the autocorrelation nature of a dynamic trait, functional mapping needs the implementation of the models for the structure of the covariance matrix. In this article, we have provided a comprehensive set of approaches for modelling the covariance structure and incorporated each of these approaches into the framework of functional mapping. The Bayesian information criterion (BIC) values are used as a model selection criterion to choose the optimal combination of the submodels for the mean vector and covariance structure. In an example for leaf age growth from a rice molecular genetic project, the best submodel combination was found between the Gaussian model for the correlation structure, power equation of order 1 for the variance and the power curve for the mean vector. Under this combination, several significant QTLs for leaf age growth trajectories were detected on different chromosomes. Our model can be well used to study the genetic architecture of dynamic traits of agricultural values.

Eddy-resolving 1/10° model of the World Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrayev, R. A.; Khabeev, R. N.; Ushakov, K. V.

2012-02-01

The first results on simulating the intra-annual variability of the World Ocean circulation by use of the eddy-resolving model are considered. For this purpose, a model of the World Ocean with a 1/10° horizontal resolution and 49 vertical levels was developed (a 1/10 × 1/10 × 49 model of the World Ocean). This model is based on the traditional system of three-dimensional equations of the large-scale dynamics of the ocean and boundary conditions with an explicit allowance for water fluxes on the free surface of the ocean. The equations are written in the tripolar coordinate system. The numerical method is based on the separation of the barotropic and baroclinic components of the solution. Discretization in time is implemented using explicit schemes allowing effective parallelization for a large number of processors. The model uses the sub-models of the boundary layer of the atmosphere and the submodel of sea-ice thermodynamics. The model of the World Ocean was developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS) and the P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanogy (IO RAS). The formulation of the problem of simulating the intra-annual variability of thermohydrodynamic processes of the World Ocean and the parameterizations that were used are considered. In the numerical experiment, the temporal evolution of the atmospheric effect is determined by the normal annual cycle according to the conditions of the international Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiment (CORE-I). The calculation was carried out on a multiprocessor computer with distributed memory; 1601 computational cores were used. The presented analysis demonstrates that the obtained results are quite satisfactory when compared to the results that were obtained by other eddy-resolving models of the global ocean. The analysis of the model solution is, to a larger extent, of a descriptive character. A detailed analysis of the results is to be presented in following works. This experiment is a significant first step in developing the eddy-resolving model of the World Ocean.

East Europe Report

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-02-25

definite solution from among those admissible, specified in the from of a vector of criteria and weights. The set of criteria can be different depending on...was developed in stages, by aggregating an increasing number of submodels (i.e. partial models) prepared by different teams. Nor can its present...entities operating under different constraints and towards different objectives. These models and various combinations thereof can also be useful to

Spray combustion model improvement study, 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, C. P.; Kim, Y. M.; Shang, H. M.

1993-01-01

This study involves the development of numerical and physical modeling in spray combustion. These modeling efforts are mainly motivated to improve the physical submodels of turbulence, combustion, atomization, dense spray effects, and group vaporization. The present mathematical formulation can be easily implemented in any time-marching multiple pressure correction methodologies such as MAST code. A sequence of validation cases includes the nonevaporating, evaporating and_burnin dense_sprays.

Inventory-based sensitivity analysis of the Large Tree Diameter Growth Submodel of the Southern Variant of the FVS

Treesearch

Giorgio Vacchiano; John D. Shaw; R. Justin DeRose; James N. Long

2008-01-01

Diameter increment is an important variable in modeling tree growth. Most facets of predicted tree development are dependent in part on diameter or diameter increment, the most commonly measured stand variable. The behavior of the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) largely relies on the performance of the diameter increment model and the subsequent use of predicted dbh...

Validation of an intermediate-complexity model for simulating marine biogeochemistry under anoxic conditions in the modern Black Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romaniello, Stephen J.; Derry, Louis A.

2010-08-01

We test the ability of a new 1-D intermediate-complexity box model (ICBM) that includes process-based C, N, P, O, and S biogeochemistry to simulate profiles and fluxes of biogeochemically reactive species across a wide range of ocean redox states. The ICBM was developed to simulate whole ocean processes for paleoceanographic applications and has been tested with data from the modern global ocean. Here we adapt the circulation submodel of the ICBM to simulate water mass exchange and eddy diffusion processes in the Black Sea but make only very minor changes to the biogeochemical submodel. We force the model with estimated natural and anthropogenic inputs of tracers and nutrients to the Black Sea and compare the results of the simulations to modern observations. Ventilation of the Black Sea is modeled by depth-dependent entrainment of Cold Intermediate Layer water into Bosphorus plume water and subsequent intrusion into deep layers. The simulated profiles of circulation tracers θ, salinity, CFC-12, and radiocarbon agree well with available data, suggesting that the model does a reasonable job of representing physical exchange. Vertical profiles of biogeochemically active components are in good overall agreement with observations. The lack of trace metal (Mn and Fe) cycling in the model results in some discrepancies between the simulated profiles and observation across the suboxic zone; however, the overall redox balance is not sensitive to this difference. We compare modeled basin-wide biogeochemical fluxes to available estimates, but in a number of cases uncertainties in modern budgets limit our ability to test the model rigorously. In agreement with earlier work we find that fixed N losses via thiodenitrification are likely a major pathway in the Black Sea N cycle. Overall, the same biogeochemical submodel used to simulate the modern global ocean appears to perform well in simulating Black Sea processes without requiring significant modification. The ability of a single model to perform across a wide range of redox states is an important prerequisite for applying the ICBM to deep time paleoceanographic problems. The model source code is available as MATLAB™ 7 m-files provided as auxiliary material.

Disturbance Distance: Using a process based ecosystem model to estimate and map potential thresholds in disturbance rates that would give rise to fundamentally altered ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolan, K. A.; Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J.; Flanagan, S.; LePage, Y.; Sahajpal, R.

2014-12-01

Disturbance plays a critical role in shaping the structure and function of forested ecosystems as well as the ecosystem services they provide, including but not limited to: carbon storage, biodiversity habitat, water quality and flow, and land atmosphere exchanges of energy and water. As recent studies highlight novel disturbance regimes resulting from pollution, invasive pests and climate change, there is a need to include these alterations in predictions of future forest function and structure. The Ecosystem Demography (ED) model is a mechanistic model of forest ecosystem dynamics in which individual-based forest dynamics can be efficiently implemented over regional to global scales due to advanced scaling methods. We utilize ED to characterize the sensitivity of potential vegetation structure and function to changes in rates of density independent mortality. Disturbance rate within ED can either be altered directly or through the development of sub-models. Disturbance sub-models in ED currently include fire, land use and hurricanes. We use a tiered approach to understand the sensitivity of North American ecosystems to changes in background density independent mortality. Our first analyses were conducted at half-degree spatial resolution with a constant rate of disturbance in space and time, which was altered between runs. Annual climate was held constant at the site level and the land use and fire sub-models were turned off. Results showed an ~ 30% increase in non-forest area across the US when disturbance rates were changed from 0.6% a year to 1.2% a year and a more than 3.5 fold increase in non-forest area when disturbance rates doubled again from 1.2% to 2.4%. Continued runs altered natural background disturbance rates with the existing fire and hurricane sub models turned on as well as historic and future land use. By quantify differences between model outputs that characterize ecosystem structure and function related to the carbon cycle across the US, we are identifying areas and characteristics that display higher sensitivities to change in disturbance rates.

Application of the environmentally sensitive forest growth and mortality submodel, ESGM, for estimating the historic and future forest carbon budget for the Sooke Lake Watershed, British Columbia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trofymow, J. A.; Hember, R.; Smiley, B. P.; Morken, S.; Kurz, W. A.

2016-12-01

Forest resource managers require knowledge of how natural disturbances, harvest, land-use change, and climate change affect carbon (C) budgets of complex landscapes. In this study, a retrospective (1911-2012) forest C budget for the 8500 ha Sooke Lake watershed was developed based on forest inventories, disturbance, and stream monitoring data using the Canadian Forest Service's spatially-explicit Generic Carbon Budget Model (GCBM). This standard version of GCBM used species-specific volume-over-age curves and site indices to determine tree growth and thus does not explicitly account for environmental factors (climate, CO2, N deposition) that may affect trees and net ecosystem production (NEP). Therefore, a new submodel was developed for GCBM, ESGM, which uses empirical equations to account for influences of 8 environmental factors on tree growth and mortality, based on analysis of multi-decadal data from 19,777 field plots from western North America. Annual environmental variables were prepared (1910-2012) for input to GCBMesgm and temperature effects on decay rates were turned on in the GCBM soil submodel. In response to fires, harvesting, planting, and deforestation for drinking water reservoir expansions, the standard GCBM run showed over 100 years (1911, 1940, 1991, 2012) aboveground biomass C (262, 189, 148, 177 MgC/ha) and NEP (0.6, -1.3, 0.8, 2.3 Mg C/ha/yr) declined and then increased as harvest and deforestation ceased in 2002. From 1.5 -6.5% of terrestrial humified soil C losses (30,640 Mg C/100 yrs) were estimated to have been exported as dissolved organic carbon. Assuming no future disturbances, the standard GCBM run indicates NEP will peak at 2.64 MgC/ha/yr in 2024 and biomass C reach 1910 levels by 2075. Comparisons will be made between standard GCBM and GCBMesgmruns of the C budget for the historic period and for future climate scenarios (baseline, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the CanESM2 GCM, to explore the potential implications of environmental change for future watershed management.

Thermal management methods for compact high power LED arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensen, Adam; Ha, Minseok; Graham, Samuel

2007-09-01

The package and system level temperature distributions of a high power (>1W) light emitting diode (LED) array has been investigated using numerical heat flow models. For this analysis, a thermal resistor network model was combined with a 3D finite element submodel of an LED structure to predict system and die level temperatures. The impact of LED array density, LED power density, and active versus passive cooling methods on device operation were calculated. In order to help understand the role of various thermal resistances in cooling such compact arrays, the thermal resistance network was analyzed in order to estimate the contributions from materials as well as active and passive cooling schemes. An analysis of thermal stresses and residual stresses in the die are also calculated based on power dissipation and convection heat transfer coefficients. Results show that the thermal stress in the GaN layer are compressive which can impact the band gap and performance of the LEDs.

Modeling Soot Oxidation and Gasification with Bayesian Statistics

DOE PAGES

Josephson, Alexander J.; Gaffin, Neal D.; Smith, Sean T.; ...

2017-08-22

This paper presents a statistical method for model calibration using data collected from literature. The method is used to calibrate parameters for global models of soot consumption in combustion systems. This consumption is broken into two different submodels: first for oxidation where soot particles are attacked by certain oxidizing agents; second for gasification where soot particles are attacked by H 2O or CO 2 molecules. Rate data were collected from 19 studies in the literature and evaluated using Bayesian statistics to calibrate the model parameters. Bayesian statistics are valued in their ability to quantify uncertainty in modeling. The calibrated consumptionmore » model with quantified uncertainty is presented here along with a discussion of associated implications. The oxidation results are found to be consistent with previous studies. Significant variation is found in the CO 2 gasification rates.« less

Modeling Soot Oxidation and Gasification with Bayesian Statistics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Josephson, Alexander J.; Gaffin, Neal D.; Smith, Sean T.

This paper presents a statistical method for model calibration using data collected from literature. The method is used to calibrate parameters for global models of soot consumption in combustion systems. This consumption is broken into two different submodels: first for oxidation where soot particles are attacked by certain oxidizing agents; second for gasification where soot particles are attacked by H 2O or CO 2 molecules. Rate data were collected from 19 studies in the literature and evaluated using Bayesian statistics to calibrate the model parameters. Bayesian statistics are valued in their ability to quantify uncertainty in modeling. The calibrated consumptionmore » model with quantified uncertainty is presented here along with a discussion of associated implications. The oxidation results are found to be consistent with previous studies. Significant variation is found in the CO 2 gasification rates.« less

Rosen's (M,R) system as an X-machine.

PubMed

Palmer, Michael L; Williams, Richard A; Gatherer, Derek

2016-11-07

Robert Rosen's (M,R) system is an abstract biological network architecture that is allegedly both irreducible to sub-models of its component states and non-computable on a Turing machine. (M,R) stands as an obstacle to both reductionist and mechanistic presentations of systems biology, principally due to its self-referential structure. If (M,R) has the properties claimed for it, computational systems biology will not be possible, or at best will be a science of approximate simulations rather than accurate models. Several attempts have been made, at both empirical and theoretical levels, to disprove this assertion by instantiating (M,R) in software architectures. So far, these efforts have been inconclusive. In this paper, we attempt to demonstrate why - by showing how both finite state machine and stream X-machine formal architectures fail to capture the self-referential requirements of (M,R). We then show that a solution may be found in communicating X-machines, which remove self-reference using parallel computation, and then synthesise such machine architectures with object-orientation to create a formal basis for future software instantiations of (M,R) systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pressurization System Modeling for a Generic Bimese Two- Stage-to-Orbit Reusable Launch Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mazurkivich, Pete; Chandler, Frank; Nguyen, Han

2005-01-01

A pressurization system model was developed for a generic bimese Two-Stage-to-orbit Reusable Launch Vehicle using a cross-feed system and operating with densified propellants. The model was based on the pressurization system model for a crossfeed subscale water test article and was validated with test data obtained from the test article. The model consists of the liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen pressurization models, each made up of two submodels, Booster and Orbiter tank pressurization models. The tanks are controlled within a 0.2-psi band and pressurized on the ground with ambient helium and autogenously in flight with gaseous oxygen and gaseous hydrogen. A 15-psi pressure difference is maintained between the Booster and Orbiter tanks to ensure crossfeed check valve closure before Booster separation. The analysis uses an ascent trajectory generated for a generic bimese vehicle and a tank configuration based on the Space Shuttle External Tank. It determines the flow rates required to pressurize the tanks on the ground and in flight, and demonstrates the model's capability to analyze the pressurization system performance of a full-scale bimese vehicle with densified propellants.

Pattern-oriented modelling: a ‘multi-scope’ for predictive systems ecology

PubMed Central

Grimm, Volker; Railsback, Steven F.

2012-01-01

Modern ecology recognizes that modelling systems across scales and at multiple levels—especially to link population and ecosystem dynamics to individual adaptive behaviour—is essential for making the science predictive. ‘Pattern-oriented modelling’ (POM) is a strategy for doing just this. POM is the multi-criteria design, selection and calibration of models of complex systems. POM starts with identifying a set of patterns observed at multiple scales and levels that characterize a system with respect to the particular problem being modelled; a model from which the patterns emerge should contain the right mechanisms to address the problem. These patterns are then used to (i) determine what scales, entities, variables and processes the model needs, (ii) test and select submodels to represent key low-level processes such as adaptive behaviour, and (iii) find useful parameter values during calibration. Patterns are already often used in these ways, but a mini-review of applications of POM confirms that making the selection and use of patterns more explicit and rigorous can facilitate the development of models with the right level of complexity to understand ecological systems and predict their response to novel conditions. PMID:22144392

The TEF modeling and analysis approach to advance thermionic space power technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, Albert C.

1997-01-01

Thermionics space power systems have been proposed as advanced power sources for future space missions that require electrical power levels significantly above the capabilities of current space power systems. The Defense Special Weapons Agency's (DSWA) Thermionic Evaluation Facility (TEF) is carrying out both experimental and analytical research to advance thermionic space power technology to meet this expected need. A Modeling and Analysis (M&A) project has been created at the TEF to develop analysis tools, evaluate concepts, and guide research. M&A activities are closely linked to the TEF experimental program, providing experiment support and using experimental data to validate models. A planning exercise has been completed for the M&A project, and a strategy for implementation was developed. All M&A activities will build on a framework provided by a system performance model for a baseline Thermionic Fuel Element (TFE) concept. The system model is composed of sub-models for each of the system components and sub-systems. Additional thermionic component options and model improvements will continue to be incorporated in the basic system model during the course of the program. All tasks are organized into four focus areas: 1) system models, 2) thermionic research, 3) alternative concepts, and 4) documentation and integration. The M&A project will provide a solid framework for future thermionic system development.

A two-stage storage routing model for green roof runoff detention.

PubMed

Vesuviano, Gianni; Sonnenwald, Fred; Stovin, Virginia

2014-01-01

Green roofs have been adopted in urban drainage systems to control the total quantity and volumetric flow rate of runoff. Modern green roof designs are multi-layered, their main components being vegetation, substrate and, in almost all cases, a separate drainage layer. Most current hydrological models of green roofs combine the modelling of the separate layers into a single process; these models have limited predictive capability for roofs not sharing the same design. An adaptable, generic, two-stage model for a system consisting of a granular substrate over a hard plastic 'egg box'-style drainage layer and fibrous protection mat is presented. The substrate and drainage layer/protection mat are modelled separately by previously verified sub-models. Controlled storm events are applied to a green roof system in a rainfall simulator. The time-series modelled runoff is compared to the monitored runoff for each storm event. The modelled runoff profiles are accurate (mean Rt(2) = 0.971), but further characterization of the substrate component is required for the model to be generically applicable to other roof configurations with different substrate.

A Qualitative Model of Human Interaction with Complex Dynamic Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hess, Ronald A.

1987-01-01

A qualitative model describing human interaction with complex dynamic systems is developed. The model is hierarchical in nature and consists of three parts: a behavior generator, an internal model, and a sensory information processor. The behavior generator is responsible for action decomposition, turning higher level goals or missions into physical action at the human-machine interface. The internal model is an internal representation of the environment which the human is assumed to possess and is divided into four submodel categories. The sensory information processor is responsible for sensory composition. All three parts of the model act in consort to allow anticipatory behavior on the part of the human in goal-directed interaction with dynamic systems. Human workload and error are interpreted in this framework, and the familiar example of an automobile commute is used to illustrate the nature of the activity in the three model elements. Finally, with the qualitative model as a guide, verbal protocols from a manned simulation study of a helicopter instrument landing task are analyzed with particular emphasis on the effect of automation on human-machine performance.

A qualitative model of human interaction with complex dynamic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hess, Ronald A.

1987-01-01

A qualitative model describing human interaction with complex dynamic systems is developed. The model is hierarchical in nature and consists of three parts: a behavior generator, an internal model, and a sensory information processor. The behavior generator is responsible for action decomposition, turning higher level goals or missions into physical action at the human-machine interface. The internal model is an internal representation of the environment which the human is assumed to possess and is divided into four submodel categories. The sensory information processor is responsible for sensory composition. All three parts of the model act in consort to allow anticipatory behavior on the part of the human in goal-directed interaction with dynamic systems. Human workload and error are interpreted in this framework, and the familiar example of an automobile commute is used to illustrate the nature of the activity in the three model elements. Finally, with the qualitative model as a guide, verbal protocols from a manned simulation study of a helicopter instrument landing task are analyzed with particular emphasis on the effect of automation on human-machine performance.

Combining Ecosystem Observations, Manipulations and the Data Assimilation Research Testbed to Provide New Insights into Community Land Model Performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, A.; Armstrong, A. H.; Shuman, J. K.; Ranson, K.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Rogers, B. M.; Goetz, S. J.

2016-12-01

Global temperatures have increased about 0.2°C per decade since 1979, and the high latitudes are warming faster than the rest of the globe. Climate change within Alaska is likely to bring about increased drought and longer fire seasons, as well as increases in the severity and frequency of fires. These changes in disturbance regimes and their associated effects on ecosystem C stocks, including permafrost, may lead to a positive feedback to further climate warming. As of now, it is uncertain how vegetation will respond to ongoing climate change, and the addition of disturbance effects leads to even more complicated and varied scenarios. Through ecological modeling, we have the capacity to examine forest processes at multiple temporal and spatial scales, allowing for the testing of complex interactions between vegetation, climate, and disturbances. The University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced (UVAFME) is an individual tree-based forest model that has been updated for use in interior boreal Alaska, with a new permafrost model and updated fire simulation. These updated submodels allow for feedback between soils, vegetation, and fire severity through fuels tracking and impact of depth of burn on permafrost dynamics. We present these updated submodels as well as calibration and validation of UVAFME to the Yukon River Basin in Alaska, with comparisons to inventory data. We also present initial findings from simulations of potential future forest biomass, structure, and species composition across the Yukon River Basin under expected changes in precipitation, temperature, and disturbances. We predict changing climate and the associated impacts on wildfire and permafrost dynamics will result in shifts in biomass and species composition across the region, with potential for further feedback to the climate-vegetation-disturbance system. These simulations advance our understanding of the possible futures for the Alaskan boreal forest, which is a valuable part of the global carbon budget.

Multi-Scale Modeling of Boreal Forest Vegetation Growth Under the Influence of Permafrost and Wildfire Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, A.; Armstrong, A. H.; Shuman, J. K.; Ranson, K.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Rogers, B. M.; Goetz, S. J.

2017-12-01

Global temperatures have increased about 0.2°C per decade since 1979, and the high latitudes are warming faster than the rest of the globe. Climate change within Alaska is likely to bring about increased drought and longer fire seasons, as well as increases in the severity and frequency of fires. These changes in disturbance regimes and their associated effects on ecosystem C stocks, including permafrost, may lead to a positive feedback to further climate warming. As of now, it is uncertain how vegetation will respond to ongoing climate change, and the addition of disturbance effects leads to even more complicated and varied scenarios. Through ecological modeling, we have the capacity to examine forest processes at multiple temporal and spatial scales, allowing for the testing of complex interactions between vegetation, climate, and disturbances. The University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced (UVAFME) is an individual tree-based forest model that has been updated for use in interior boreal Alaska, with a new permafrost model and updated fire simulation. These updated submodels allow for feedback between soils, vegetation, and fire severity through fuels tracking and impact of depth of burn on permafrost dynamics. We present these updated submodels as well as calibration and validation of UVAFME to the Yukon River Basin in Alaska, with comparisons to inventory data. We also present initial findings from simulations of potential future forest biomass, structure, and species composition across the Yukon River Basin under expected changes in precipitation, temperature, and disturbances. We predict changing climate and the associated impacts on wildfire and permafrost dynamics will result in shifts in biomass and species composition across the region, with potential for further feedback to the climate-vegetation-disturbance system. These simulations advance our understanding of the possible futures for the Alaskan boreal forest, which is a valuable part of the global carbon budget.

A model for estimating air-pollutant uptake by forests: calculation of absorption of sulfur dioxide from dispersed sources

Treesearch

C. E., Jr. Murphy; T. R. Sinclair; K. R. Knoerr

1977-01-01

The computer model presented in this paper is designed to estimate the uptake of air pollutants by forests. The model utilizes submodels to describe atmospheric diffusion immediately above and within the canopy, and into the sink areas within or on the trees. The program implementing the model is general and can be used with only minor changes for any gaseous pollutant...

Calibration and Propagation of Uncertainty for Independence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holland, Troy Michael; Kress, Joel David; Bhat, Kabekode Ghanasham

This document reports on progress and methods for the calibration and uncertainty quantification of the Independence model developed at UT Austin. The Independence model is an advanced thermodynamic and process model framework for piperazine solutions as a high-performance CO 2 capture solvent. Progress is presented in the framework of the CCSI standard basic data model inference framework. Recent work has largely focused on the thermodynamic submodels of Independence.

DairyWise, a whole-farm dairy model.

PubMed

Schils, R L M; de Haan, M H A; Hemmer, J G A; van den Pol-van Dasselaar, A; de Boer, J A; Evers, A G; Holshof, G; van Middelkoop, J C; Zom, R L G

2007-11-01

A whole-farm dairy model was developed and evaluated. The DairyWise model is an empirical model that simulated technical, environmental, and financial processes on a dairy farm. The central component is the FeedSupply model that balanced the herd requirements, as generated by the DairyHerd model, and the supply of homegrown feeds, as generated by the crop models for grassland and corn silage. The output of the FeedSupply model was used as input for several technical, environmental, and economic submodels. The submodels simulated a range of farm aspects such as nitrogen and phosphorus cycling, nitrate leaching, ammonia emissions, greenhouse gas emissions, energy use, and a financial farm budget. The final output was a farm plan describing all material and nutrient flows and the consequences on the environment and economy. Evaluation of DairyWise was performed with 2 data sets consisting of 29 dairy farms. The evaluation showed that DairyWise was able to simulate gross margin, concentrate intake, nitrogen surplus, nitrate concentration in ground water, and crop yields. The variance accounted for ranged from 37 to 84%, and the mean differences between modeled and observed values varied between -5 to +3% per set of farms. We conclude that DairyWise is a powerful tool for integrated scenario development and evaluation for scientists, policy makers, extension workers, teachers and farmers.

Constraining 3-PG with a new δ13C submodel: a test using the δ13C of tree rings.

PubMed

Wei, Liang; Marshall, John D; Link, Timothy E; Kavanagh, Kathleen L; DU, Enhao; Pangle, Robert E; Gag, Peter J; Ubierna, Nerea

2014-01-01

A semi-mechanistic forest growth model, 3-PG (Physiological Principles Predicting Growth), was extended to calculate δ(13)C in tree rings. The δ(13)C estimates were based on the model's existing description of carbon assimilation and canopy conductance. The model was tested in two ~80-year-old natural stands of Abies grandis (grand fir) in northern Idaho. We used as many independent measurements as possible to parameterize the model. Measured parameters included quantum yield, specific leaf area, soil water content and litterfall rate. Predictions were compared with measurements of transpiration by sap flux, stem biomass, tree diameter growth, leaf area index and δ(13)C. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model's predictions of δ(13)C were sensitive to key parameters controlling carbon assimilation and canopy conductance, which would have allowed it to fail had the model been parameterized or programmed incorrectly. Instead, the simulated δ(13)C of tree rings was no different from measurements (P > 0.05). The δ(13)C submodel provides a convenient means of constraining parameter space and avoiding model artefacts. This δ(13)C test may be applied to any forest growth model that includes realistic simulations of carbon assimilation and transpiration. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Integrating GIS, cellular automata, and genetic algorithm in urban spatial optimization: a case study of Lanzhou

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Xibao; Zhang, Jianming; Zhou, Xiaojian

2006-10-01

This paper presents a model integrating GIS, cellular automata (CA) and genetic algorithm (GA) in urban spatial optimization. The model involves three objectives of the maximization of land-use efficiency, the maximization of urban spatial harmony and appropriate proportion of each land-use type. CA submodel is designed with standard Moore neighbor and three transition rules to maximize the land-use efficiency and urban spatial harmony, according to the land-use suitability and spatial harmony index. GA submodel is designed with four constraints and seven steps for the maximization of urban spatial harmony and appropriate proportion of each land-use type, including encoding, initializing, calculating fitness, selection, crossover, mutation and elitism. GIS is used to prepare for the input data sets for the model and perform spatial analysis on the results, while CA and GA are integrated to optimize urban spatial structure, programmed with Matlab 7 and coupled with GIS loosely. Lanzhou, a typical valley-basin city with fast urban development, is chosen as the case study. At the end, a detail analysis and evaluation of the spatial optimization with the model are made, and it proves to be a powerful tool in optimizing urban spatial structure and make supplement for urban planning and policy-makers.

Numerical Simulation on Hydrodynamics and Combustion in a Circulating Fluidized Bed under O2/CO2 and Air Atmospheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, W.; Zhao, C. S.; Duan, L. B.; Qu, C. R.; Lu, J. Y.; Chen, X. P.

Oxy-fuel circulating fluidized bed (CFB) combustion technology is in the stage of initial development for carbon capture and storage (CCS). Numerical simulation is helpful to better understanding the combustion process and will be significant for CFB scale-up. In this paper, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was employed to simulate the hydrodynamics of gas-solid flow in a CFB riser based on the Eulerian-Granular multiphase model. The cold model predicted the main features of the complex gas-solid flow, including the cluster formation of the solid phase along the walls, the flow structure of up-flow in the core and downward flow in the annular region. Furthermore, coal devolatilization, char combustion and heat transfer were considered by coupling semi-empirical sub-models with CFD model to establish a comprehensive model. The gas compositions and temperature profiles were predicted and the outflow gas fractions are validated with the experimental data in air combustion. With the experimentally validated model being applied, the concentration and temperature distributions in O2/CO2 combustion were predicted. The model is useful for the further development of a comprehensive model including more sub-models, such as pollutant emissions, and better understanding the combustion process in furnace.

Simulating wind and marine hydrokinetic turbines with actuator lines in RANS and LES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachant, Peter; Wosnik, Martin

2015-11-01

As wind and marine hydrokinetic (MHK) turbine designs mature, focus is shifting towards improving turbine array layouts for maximizing overall power output, i.e., minimizing wake interference for axial-flow or horizontal-axis turbines, or taking advantage of constructive wake interaction for cross-flow or vertical-axis turbines. Towards this goal, an actuator line model (ALM) was developed to provide a computationally feasible method for simulating full turbine arrays inside Navier-Stokes models. The ALM predicts turbine loading with the blade element method combined with sub-models for dynamic stall and flow curvature. The open-source software is written as an extension library for the OpenFOAM CFD package, which allows the ALM body force to be applied to their standard RANS and LES solvers. Turbine forcing is also applied to volume of fluid (VOF) models, e.g., for predicting free surface effects on submerged MHK devices. An additional sub-model is considered for injecting turbulence model scalar quantities based on actuator line element loading. Results are presented for the simulation of performance and wake dynamics of axial- and cross-flow turbines and compared with moderate Reynolds number experiments and body-fitted mesh, blade-resolving CFD. Work supported by NSF-CBET grant 1150797.

Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling of the Operation of a Flame Ionization Sensor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huckaby, E.D.; Chorpening, B.T.; Thornton, J.D.

The sensors and controls research group at the United States Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) is continuing to develop the Combustion Control and Diagnostics Sensor (CCADS) for gas turbine applications. CCADS uses the electrical conduction of the charged species generated during the combustion process to detect combustion instabilities and monitor equivalence ratio. As part of this effort, combustion models are being developed which include the interaction between the electric field and the transport of charged species. The primary combustion process is computed using a flame wrinkling model (Weller et. al. 1998) which is a component ofmore » the OpenFOAM toolkit (Jasak et. al. 2004). A sub-model for the transport of charged species is attached to this model. The formulation of the charged-species model similar that applied by Penderson and Brown (1993) for the simulation of laminar flames. The sub-model consists of an additional flux due to the electric field (drift flux) added to the equations for the charged species concentrations and the solution the electric potential from the resolved charge density. The subgrid interactions between the electric field and charged species transport have been neglected. Using the above procedure, numerical simulations are performed and the results compared with several recent CCADS experiments.« less

Stochastic models to study the impact of mixing on a fed-batch culture of Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

PubMed

Delvigne, F; Lejeune, A; Destain, J; Thonart, P

2006-01-01

The mechanisms of interaction between microorganisms and their environment in a stirred bioreactor can be modeled by a stochastic approach. The procedure comprises two submodels: a classical stochastic model for the microbial cell circulation and a Markov chain model for the concentration gradient calculus. The advantage lies in the fact that the core of each submodel, i.e., the transition matrix (which contains the probabilities to shift from a perfectly mixed compartment to another in the bioreactor representation), is identical for the two cases. That means that both the particle circulation and fluid mixing process can be analyzed by use of the same modeling basis. This assumption has been validated by performing inert tracer (NaCl) and stained yeast cells dispersion experiments that have shown good agreement with simulation results. The stochastic model has been used to define a characteristic concentration profile experienced by the microorganisms during a fermentation test performed in a scale-down reactor. The concentration profiles obtained in this way can explain the scale-down effect in the case of a Saccharomyces cerevisiae fed-batch process. The simulation results are analyzed in order to give some explanations about the effect of the substrate fluctuation dynamics on S. cerevisiae.

Kinematic and diabatic vertical velocity climatologies from a chemistry climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marinke Hoppe, Charlotte; Ploeger, Felix; Konopka, Paul; Müller, Rolf

2016-05-01

The representation of vertical velocity in chemistry climate models is a key element for the representation of the large-scale Brewer-Dobson circulation in the stratosphere. Here, we diagnose and compare the kinematic and diabatic vertical velocities in the ECHAM/Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. The calculation of kinematic vertical velocity is based on the continuity equation, whereas diabatic vertical velocity is computed using diabatic heating rates. Annual and monthly zonal mean climatologies of vertical velocity from a 10-year simulation are provided for both kinematic and diabatic vertical velocity representations. In general, both vertical velocity patterns show the main features of the stratospheric circulation, namely, upwelling at low latitudes and downwelling at high latitudes. The main difference in the vertical velocity pattern is a more uniform structure for diabatic and a noisier structure for kinematic vertical velocity. Diabatic vertical velocities show higher absolute values both in the upwelling branch in the inner tropics and in the downwelling regions in the polar vortices. Further, there is a latitudinal shift of the tropical upwelling branch in boreal summer between the two vertical velocity representations with the tropical upwelling region in the diabatic representation shifted southward compared to the kinematic case. Furthermore, we present mean age of air climatologies from two transport schemes in EMAC using these different vertical velocities and analyze the impact of residual circulation and mixing processes on the age of air. The age of air distributions show a hemispheric difference pattern in the stratosphere with younger air in the Southern Hemisphere and older air in the Northern Hemisphere using the transport scheme with diabatic vertical velocities. Further, the age of air climatology from the transport scheme using diabatic vertical velocities shows a younger mean age of air in the inner tropical upwelling branch and an older mean age in the extratropical tropopause region.

AOD trends during 2001-2010 from observations and model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozzer, Andrea; de Meij, Alexander; Yoon, Jongmin; Astitha, Marina

2016-04-01

The trend of aerosol optical depth (AOD) between 2001 and 2010 is estimated globally and regionally from remote sensed observations by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer) and SeaWIFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor) satellite sensor. The resulting trends have been compared to model results from the EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry {[1]}), model. Although interannual variability is applied only to anthropogenic and biomass-burning emissions, the model is able to quantitatively reproduce the AOD trends as observed by MODIS, while some discrepancies are found when compared to MISR and SeaWIFS. An additional numerical simulation with the same model was performed, neglecting any temporal change in the emissions, i.e. with no interannual variability for any emission source. It is shown that decreasing AOD trends over the US and Europe are due to the decrease in the (anthropogenic) emissions. On contrary over the Sahara Desert and the Middle East region, the meteorological/dynamical changes in the last decade play a major role in driving the AOD trends. Further, over Southeast Asia, both meteorology and emissions changes are equally important in defining AOD trends {[2]}. Finally, decomposing the regional AOD trends into individual aerosol components reveals that the soluble components are the most dominant contributors to the total AOD, as their influence on the total AOD is enhanced by the aerosol water content. {[1]}: Jöckel, P., Kerkweg, A., Pozzer, A., Sander, R., Tost, H., Riede, H., Baumgaertner, A., Gromov, S., and Kern, B.: Development cycle 2 of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy2), Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 717-752, doi:10.5194/gmd-3-717-2010, 2010. {[2]}: Pozzer, A., de Meij, A., Yoon, J., Tost, H., Georgoulias, A. K., and Astitha, M.: AOD trends during 2001-2010 from observations and model simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5521-5535, doi:10.5194/acp-15-5521-2015, 2015.

Earth system science: A program for global change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1989-01-01

The Earth System Sciences Committee (ESSC) was appointed to consider directions for the NASA Earth-sciences program, with the following charge: review the science of the Earth as a system of interacting components; recommend an implementation strategy for Earth studies; and define the role of NASA in such a program. The challenge to the Earth system science is to develop the capability to predict those changes that will occur in the next decade to century, both naturally and in response to human activity. Sustained, long-term measurements of global variables; fundamental descriptions of the Earth and its history; research foci and process studies; development of Earth system models; an information system for Earth system science; coordination of Federal agencies; and international cooperation are examined.

Diversity of Approaches to Structuring University-Based Earth System Science Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aron, J.; Ruzek, M.; Johnson, D. R.

2004-12-01

Over the past quarter century, the "Earth system science" paradigm has emerged among the interdisciplinary science community, emphasizing interactions among components hitherto considered within separate disciplines: atmosphere (air); hydrosphere (water); biosphere (life); lithosphere (land); anthroposphere (human dimension); and exosphere (solar system and beyond). How should the next generation of Earth system scientists learn to contribute to this interdisciplinary endeavor? There is no one simple answer. The Earth System Science Education program, funded by NASA, has addressed this question by supporting faculty at U.S. universities who develop new courses, curricula and degree programs in their institutional contexts. This report demonstrates the diversity of approaches to structuring university-based Earth system science education, focusing on the 18 current grantees of the Earth System Science Education Program for the 21st Century (ESSE21). One of the most fundamental characteristics is the departmental structure for teaching Earth system science. The "home" departments of the Earth system science faculty range from Earth sciences and physics to agronomy and social work. A brand-new institution created an interdisciplinary Institute for Earth Systems Science and Policy without traditional "parent" departments. Some institutions create new degree programs as majors or as minors while others work within existing degree programs to add or revise courses. A university may also offer multiple strands, such as a degree in the Science of the Earth System and a degree in the Human Dimensions of the Earth System. Defining a career path is extremely important to students considering Earth system science programs and a major institutional challenge for all programs in Earth system science education. How will graduate programs assess prospective students? How will universities and government agencies assess prospective faculty and scientists? How will government agencies allocate funds to interdisciplinary Earth system science and technology? Finally, how should the Earth system science education community evolve?

New derivation of soliton solutions to the AKNS2 system via dressing transformation methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Assunção, A. de O.; Blas, H.; da Silva, M. J. B. F.

2012-03-01

We consider certain boundary conditions supporting soliton solutions in the generalized nonlinear Schrödinger equation (AKNSr) (r = 1, 2). Using the dressing transformation (DT) method and the related tau functions, we study the AKNSr system for the vanishing, (constant) non-vanishing and the mixed boundary conditions, and their associated bright, dark and bright-dark N-soliton solutions, respectively. Moreover, we introduce a modified DT related to the dressing group in order to consider the free-field boundary condition and derive generalized N dark-dark solitons. As a reduced submodel of the AKNSr system, we study the properties of the focusing, defocusing and mixed focusing-defocusing versions of the so-called coupled nonlinear Schrödinger equation (r-CNLS), which has recently been considered in many physical applications. We have shown that two-dark-dark-soliton bound states exist in the AKNS2 system, and three- and higher-dark-dark-soliton bound states cannot exist. The AKNSr (r ⩾ 3) extension is briefly discussed in this approach. The properties and calculations of some matrix elements using level-one vertex operators are outlined. Dedicated to the memory of S S Costa

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Danko, George L

To increase understanding of the energy extraction capacity of Enhanced Geothermal System(s) (EGS), a numerical model development and application project is completed. The general objective of the project is to develop and apply a new, data-coupled Thermal-Hydrological-Mechanical-Chemical (T-H-M-C) model in which the four internal components can be freely selected from existing simulation software without merging and cross-combining a diverse set of computational codes. Eight tasks are completed during the project period. The results are reported in five publications, an MS thesis, twelve quarterly, and two annual reports to DOE. Two US patents have also been issued during the project period,more » with one patent application originated prior to the start of the project. The “Multiphase Physical Transport Modeling Method and Modeling System” (U.S. Patent 8,396,693 B2, 2013), a key element in the GHE sub-model solution, is successfully used for EGS studies. The “Geothermal Energy Extraction System and Method" invention (U.S. Patent 8,430,166 B2, 2013) originates from the time of project performance, describing a new fluid flow control solution. The new, coupled T-H-M-C numerical model will help analyzing and designing new, efficient EGS systems.« less

Modelling the protocol stack in NCS with deterministic and stochastic petri net

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui, Chen; Chunjie, Zhou; Weifeng, Zhu

2011-06-01

Protocol stack is the basis of the networked control systems (NCS). Full or partial reconfiguration of protocol stack offers both optimised communication service and system performance. Nowadays, field testing is unrealistic to determine the performance of reconfigurable protocol stack; and the Petri net formal description technique offers the best combination of intuitive representation, tool support and analytical capabilities. Traditionally, separation between the different layers of the OSI model has been a common practice. Nevertheless, such a layered modelling analysis framework of protocol stack leads to the lack of global optimisation for protocol reconfiguration. In this article, we proposed a general modelling analysis framework for NCS based on the cross-layer concept, which is to establish an efficiency system scheduling model through abstracting the time constraint, the task interrelation, the processor and the bus sub-models from upper and lower layers (application, data link and physical layer). Cross-layer design can help to overcome the inadequacy of global optimisation based on information sharing between protocol layers. To illustrate the framework, we take controller area network (CAN) as a case study. The simulation results of deterministic and stochastic Petri-net (DSPN) model can help us adjust the message scheduling scheme and obtain better system performance.

Advancing Detached-Eddy Simulation

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-01

fluxes leads to an improvement in the stability of the solution . This matrix is solved iteratively using a symmetric Gauss - Seidel procedure. Newtons sub...model (TLM) is a zonal approach, proposed by Balaras and Benocci (5) and Balaras et al. (4). The method involved the solution of filtered Navier...LES mesh. The method was subsequently used by Cabot (6) and Diurno et al. (7) to obtain the solution of the flow over a backward facing step and by

Computer support for physiological cell modelling using an ontology on cell physiology.

PubMed

Takao, Shimayoshi; Kazuhiro, Komurasaki; Akira, Amano; Takeshi, Iwashita; Masanori, Kanazawa; Tetsuya, Matsuda

2006-01-01

The development of electrophysiological whole cell models to support the understanding of biological mechanisms is increasing rapidly. Due to the complexity of biological systems, comprehensive cell models, which are composed of many imported sub-models of functional elements, can get quite complicated as well, making computer modification difficult. Here, we propose a computer support to enhance structural changes of cell models, employing the markup languages CellML and our original PMSML (physiological model structure markup language), in addition to a new ontology for cell physiological modelling. In particular, a method to make references from CellML files to the ontology and a method to assist manipulation of model structures using markup languages together with the ontology are reported. Using these methods three software utilities, including a graphical model editor, are implemented. Experimental results proved that these methods are effective for the modification of electrophysiological models.

Strategy for earth explorers in global earth sciences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1988-01-01

The goal of the current NASA Earth System Science initiative is to obtain a comprehensive scientific understanding of the Earth as an integrated, dynamic system. The centerpiece of the Earth System Science initiative will be a set of instruments carried on polar orbiting platforms under the Earth Observing System program. An Earth Explorer program can open new vistas in the earth sciences, encourage innovation, and solve critical scientific problems. Specific missions must be rigorously shaped by the demands and opportunities of high quality science and must complement the Earth Observing System and the Mission to Planet Earth. The committee believes that the proposed Earth Explorer program provides a substantial opportunity for progress in the earth sciences, both through independent missions and through missions designed to complement the large scale platforms and international research programs that represent important national commitments. The strategy presented is intended to help ensure the success of the Earth Explorer program as a vital stimulant to the study of the planet.

Modeling ebola virus disease transmissions with reservoir in a complex virus life ecology.

PubMed

Berge, Tsanou; Bowong, Samuel; Lubuma, Jean; Manyombe, Martin Luther Mann

2018-02-01

We propose a new deterministic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) in a complex Ebola virus life ecology. Our model captures as much as possible the features and patterns of the disease evolution as a three cycle transmission process in the two ways below. Firstly it involves the synergy between the epizootic phase (during which the disease circulates periodically amongst non-human primates populations and decimates them), the enzootic phase (during which the disease always remains in fruit bats population) and the epidemic phase (during which the EVD threatens and decimates human populations). Secondly it takes into account the well-known, the probable/suspected and the hypothetical transmission mechanisms (including direct and indirect routes of contamination) between and within the three different types of populations consisting of humans, animals and fruit bats. The reproduction number R0 for the full model with the environmental contamination is derived and the global asymptotic stability of the disease free equilibrium is established when R0andlt;1. It is conjectured that there exists a unique globally asymptotically stable endemic equilibrium for the full model when R0andgt;1. The role of a contaminated environment is assessed by comparing the human infected component for the sub-model without the environment with that of the full model. Similarly, the sub-model without animals on the one hand and the sub-model without bats on the other hand are studied. It is shown that bats influence more the dynamics of EVD than the animals. Global sensitivity analysis shows that the effective contact rate between humans and fruit bats and the mortality rate for bats are the most influential parameters on the latent and infected human individuals. Numerical simulations, apart from supporting the theoretical results and the existence of a unique globally asymptotically stable endemic equilibrium for the full model, suggest further that: (1) fruit bats are more important in the transmission processes and the endemicity level of EVD than animals. This is in line with biological findings which identified bats as reservoir of Ebola viruses; (2) the indirect environmental contamination is detrimental to human beings, while it is almost insignificant for the transmission in bats.

Modeling Sustainability: Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Motesharrei, Safa; Rivas, Jorge; Kalnay, Eugenia; Asrar, Ghassem R.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Cahalan, Robert F.; Cane, Mark A.; Colwell, Rita R.; Feng, Kuishuang; Franklin, Rachel S.;

Large area application of a corn hazard model. [Soviet Union

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ashburn, P.; Taylor, T. W. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

An application test of the crop calendar portion of a corn (maize) stress indicator model developed by the early warning, crop condition assessment component of AgRISTARS was performed over the corn for grain producing regions of the U.S.S.R. during the 1980 crop year using real data. Performance of the crop calendar submodel was favorable; efficiency gains in meteorological data analysis time were on a magnitude of 85 to 90 percent.

On mathematical modelling of flameless combustion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mancini, Marco; Schwoeppe, Patrick; Weber, Roman

2007-07-15

A further analysis of the IFRF semi-industrial-scale experiments on flameless (mild) combustion of natural gas is carried out. The experimental burner features a strong oxidizer jet and two weak natural gas jets. Numerous publications have shown the inability of various RANS-based mathematical models to predict the structure of the weak jet. We have proven that the failure is in error predictions of the entrainment and therefore is not related to any chemistry submodels, as has been postulated. (author)

Model Of Bearing With Hydrostatic Damper

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goggin, David G.

1991-01-01

Improved mathematical model of rotational and vibrational dynamics of bearing package in turbopump incorporates effects of hydrostatic damper. Part of larger finite-element model representing rotational and vibrational dynamics of rotor and housing of pump. Includes representations of deadband and nonlinear stiffness and damping of ball bearings, nonlinear stiffness and damping of hydrostatic film, and stiffness of bearing support. Enables incorporation of effects of hydrostatic damper into overall rotor-dynamic mathematical model without addition of mathematical submodel of major substructure.

Geomorphic modeling of macro-tidal embayment with extensive tidal flats: Skagit Bay, Washington

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

integrated Delft3D-MOR submodel. Measured river discharge, predicted tides, bathymetry, wind , and density-driven flow were incorporated into the model...supplied with sediment initially. Water temperature and salinity at the tidal boundary were adapted from (Moore et al., 2008). Wind forcing was...tide range varied from 2.4 m at Deception Pass to 3.5 m at Crescent Harbor. Because observations have indicated that wind -generated waves may be

Combating Rhino Horn Trafficking: The Need to Disrupt Criminal Networks.

PubMed

Haas, Timothy C; Ferreira, Sam M

2016-01-01

The onslaught on the World's wildlife continues despite numerous initiatives aimed at curbing it. We build a model that integrates rhino horn trade with rhino population dynamics in order to evaluate the impact of various management policies on rhino sustainability. In our model, an agent-based sub-model of horn trade from the poaching event up through a purchase of rhino horn in Asia impacts rhino abundance. A data-validated, individual-based sub-model of the rhino population of South Africa provides these abundance values. We evaluate policies that consist of different combinations of legal trade initiatives, demand reduction marketing campaigns, increased anti-poaching measures within protected areas, and transnational policing initiatives aimed at disrupting those criminal syndicates engaged in horn trafficking. Simulation runs of our model over the next 35 years produces a sustainable rhino population under only one management policy. This policy includes both a transnational policing effort aimed at dismantling those criminal networks engaged in rhino horn trafficking-coupled with increases in legal economic opportunities for people living next to protected areas where rhinos live. This multi-faceted approach should be the focus of the international debate on strategies to combat the current slaughter of rhino rather than the binary debate about whether rhino horn trade should be legalized. This approach to the evaluation of wildlife management policies may be useful to apply to other species threatened by wildlife trafficking.

Combating Rhino Horn Trafficking: The Need to Disrupt Criminal Networks

PubMed Central

Haas, Timothy C.; Ferreira, Sam M.

2016-01-01

The onslaught on the World’s wildlife continues despite numerous initiatives aimed at curbing it. We build a model that integrates rhino horn trade with rhino population dynamics in order to evaluate the impact of various management policies on rhino sustainability. In our model, an agent-based sub-model of horn trade from the poaching event up through a purchase of rhino horn in Asia impacts rhino abundance. A data-validated, individual-based sub-model of the rhino population of South Africa provides these abundance values. We evaluate policies that consist of different combinations of legal trade initiatives, demand reduction marketing campaigns, increased anti-poaching measures within protected areas, and transnational policing initiatives aimed at disrupting those criminal syndicates engaged in horn trafficking. Simulation runs of our model over the next 35 years produces a sustainable rhino population under only one management policy. This policy includes both a transnational policing effort aimed at dismantling those criminal networks engaged in rhino horn trafficking—coupled with increases in legal economic opportunities for people living next to protected areas where rhinos live. This multi-faceted approach should be the focus of the international debate on strategies to combat the current slaughter of rhino rather than the binary debate about whether rhino horn trade should be legalized. This approach to the evaluation of wildlife management policies may be useful to apply to other species threatened by wildlife trafficking. PMID:27870917

The Art and Science of Climate Model Tuning

DOE PAGES

Hourdin, Frederic; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Gettelman, Andrew; ...

2017-03-31

The process of parameter estimation targeting a chosen set of observations is an essential aspect of numerical modeling. This process is usually named tuning in the climate modeling community. In climate models, the variety and complexity of physical processes involved, and their interplay through a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, must be summarized in a series of approximate submodels. Most submodels depend on uncertain parameters. Tuning consists of adjusting the values of these parameters to bring the solution as a whole into line with aspects of the observed climate. Tuning is an essential aspect of climate modeling withmore » its own scientific issues, which is probably not advertised enough outside the community of model developers. Optimization of climate models raises important questions about whether tuning methods a priori constrain the model results in unintended ways that would affect our confidence in climate projections. Here, we present the definition and rationale behind model tuning, review specific methodological aspects, and survey the diversity of tuning approaches used in current climate models. We also discuss the challenges and opportunities in applying so-called objective methods in climate model tuning. Here, we discuss how tuning methodologies may affect fundamental results of climate models, such as climate sensitivity. The article concludes with a series of recommendations to make the process of climate model tuning more transparent.« less

Screening method for rapid classification of psychoactive substances in illicit tablets using mid infrared spectroscopy and PLS-DA.

PubMed

Pereira, Leandro S A; Lisboa, Fernanda L C; Coelho Neto, José; Valladão, Frederico N; Sena, Marcelo M

2018-05-09

Several new psychoactive substances (NPS) have reached the illegal drug market in recent years, and ecstasy-like tablets are one of the forms affected by this change. Cathinones and tryptamines have increasingly been found in ecstasy-like seized samples as well as other amphetamine type stimulants. A presumptive method for identifying different drugs in seized ecstasy tablets (n=92) using ATR-FTIR (attenuated total reflectance - Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy) and PLS-DA (partial least squares discriminant analysis) was developed. A hierarchical strategy of sequential modeling was performed with PLS-DA. The main model discriminated four classes: 5-MeO-MIPT, methylenedioxyamphetamines (MDMA and MDA), methamphetamine, and cathinones. Two submodels were built to identify drugs present in MDs and cathinones classes. Models were validated through the estimate of figures of merit. The average reliability rate (RLR) of the main model was 96.8% and accordance (ACC) was 100%. For the submodels, RLR and ACC were 100%. The reliability of the models was corroborated through their spectral interpretation. Thus, spectral assignments were performed by associating informative vectors of each specific modeled class to the respective drugs. The developed method is simple, fast, and can be applied to the forensic laboratory routine, leading to objective results reports useful for forensic scientists and law enforcement. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Three-dimensional modeling of diesel engine intake flow, combustion and emissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reitz, R. D.; Rutland, C. J.

1992-01-01

A three-dimensional computer code (KIVA) is being modified to include state-of-the-art submodels for diesel engine flow and combustion: spray atomization, drop breakup/coalescence, multi-component fuel vaporization, spray/wall interaction, ignition and combustion, wall heat transfer, unburned HC and NOx formation, soot and radiation, and the intake flow process. Improved and/or new submodels which were completed are: wall heat transfer with unsteadiness and compressibility, laminar-turbulent characteristic time combustion with unburned HC and Zeldo'vich NOx, and spray/wall impingement with rebounding and sliding drops. Results to date show that adding the effects of unsteadiness and compressibility improves the accuracy of heat transfer predictions; spray drop rebound can occur from walls at low impingement velocities (e.g., in cold-starting); larger spray drops are formed at the nozzle due to the influence of vaporization on the atomization process; a laminar-and-turbulent characteristic time combustion model has the flexibility to match measured engine combustion data over a wide range of operating conditions; and finally, the characteristic time combustion model can also be extended to allow predictions of ignition. The accuracy of the predictions is being assessed by comparisons with available measurements. Additional supporting experiments are also described briefly. To date, comparisons with measured engine cylinder pressure and heat flux data were made for homogeneous charge, spark-ignited and compression-ignited engines. The model results are in good agreement with the experiments.

Development of PBPK Models for Gasoline in Adult and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Concern for potential developmental effects of exposure to gasoline-ethanol blends has grown along with their increased use in the US fuel supply. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for these complex mixtures were developed to address dosimetric issues related to selection of exposure concentrations for in vivo toxicity studies. Sub-models for individual hydrocarbon (HC) constituents were first developed and calibrated with published literature or QSAR-derived data where available. Successfully calibrated sub-models for individual HCs were combined, assuming competitive metabolic inhibition in the liver, and a priori simulations of mixture interactions were performed. Blood HC concentration data were collected from exposed adult non-pregnant (NP) rats (9K ppm total HC vapor, 6h/day) to evaluate performance of the NP mixture model. This model was then converted to a pregnant (PG) rat mixture model using gestational growth equations that enabled a priori estimation of life-stage specific kinetic differences. To address the impact of changing relevant physiological parameters from NP to PG, the PG mixture model was first calibrated against the NP data. The PG mixture model was then evaluated against data from PG rats that were subsequently exposed (9K ppm/6.33h gestation days (GD) 9-20). Overall, the mixture models adequately simulated concentrations of HCs in blood from single (NP) or repeated (PG) exposures (within ~2-3 fold of measured values of

The Art and Science of Climate Model Tuning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hourdin, Frederic; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Gettelman, Andrew

The process of parameter estimation targeting a chosen set of observations is an essential aspect of numerical modeling. This process is usually named tuning in the climate modeling community. In climate models, the variety and complexity of physical processes involved, and their interplay through a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, must be summarized in a series of approximate submodels. Most submodels depend on uncertain parameters. Tuning consists of adjusting the values of these parameters to bring the solution as a whole into line with aspects of the observed climate. Tuning is an essential aspect of climate modeling withmore » its own scientific issues, which is probably not advertised enough outside the community of model developers. Optimization of climate models raises important questions about whether tuning methods a priori constrain the model results in unintended ways that would affect our confidence in climate projections. Here, we present the definition and rationale behind model tuning, review specific methodological aspects, and survey the diversity of tuning approaches used in current climate models. We also discuss the challenges and opportunities in applying so-called objective methods in climate model tuning. Here, we discuss how tuning methodologies may affect fundamental results of climate models, such as climate sensitivity. The article concludes with a series of recommendations to make the process of climate model tuning more transparent.« less

The shallow water equations as a hybrid flow model for the numerical and experimental analysis of hydro power stations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ostermann, Lars; Seidel, Christian

2015-03-10

The numerical analysis of hydro power stations is an important method of the hydraulic design and is used for the development and optimisation of hydro power stations in addition to the experiments with the physical submodel of a full model in the hydraulic laboratory. For the numerical analysis, 2D and 3D models are appropriate and commonly used.The 2D models refer mainly to the shallow water equations (SWE), since for this flow model a large experience on a wide field of applications for the flow analysis of numerous problems in hydraulic engineering already exists. Often, the flow model is verified bymore » in situ measurements. In order to consider 3D flow phenomena close to singularities like weirs, hydro power stations etc. the development of a hybrid fluid model is advantageous to improve the quality and significance of the global model. Here, an extended hybrid flow model based on the principle of the SWE is presented. The hybrid flow model directly links the numerical model with the experimental data, which may originate from physical full models, physical submodels and in-situ measurements. Hence a wide field of application of the hybrid model emerges including the improvement of numerical models and the strong coupling of numerical and experimental analysis.« less

iCFD: Interpreted Computational Fluid Dynamics - Degeneration of CFD to one-dimensional advection-dispersion models using statistical experimental design - The secondary clarifier.

PubMed

Guyonvarch, Estelle; Ramin, Elham; Kulahci, Murat; Plósz, Benedek Gy

2015-10-15

The present study aims at using statistically designed computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations as numerical experiments for the identification of one-dimensional (1-D) advection-dispersion models - computationally light tools, used e.g., as sub-models in systems analysis. The objective is to develop a new 1-D framework, referred to as interpreted CFD (iCFD) models, in which statistical meta-models are used to calculate the pseudo-dispersion coefficient (D) as a function of design and flow boundary conditions. The method - presented in a straightforward and transparent way - is illustrated using the example of a circular secondary settling tank (SST). First, the significant design and flow factors are screened out by applying the statistical method of two-level fractional factorial design of experiments. Second, based on the number of significant factors identified through the factor screening study and system understanding, 50 different sets of design and flow conditions are selected using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). The boundary condition sets are imposed on a 2-D axi-symmetrical CFD simulation model of the SST. In the framework, to degenerate the 2-D model structure, CFD model outputs are approximated by the 1-D model through the calibration of three different model structures for D. Correlation equations for the D parameter then are identified as a function of the selected design and flow boundary conditions (meta-models), and their accuracy is evaluated against D values estimated in each numerical experiment. The evaluation and validation of the iCFD model structure is carried out using scenario simulation results obtained with parameters sampled from the corners of the LHS experimental region. For the studied SST, additional iCFD model development was carried out in terms of (i) assessing different density current sub-models; (ii) implementation of a combined flocculation, hindered, transient and compression settling velocity function; and (iii) assessment of modelling the onset of transient and compression settling. Furthermore, the optimal level of model discretization both in 2-D and 1-D was undertaken. Results suggest that the iCFD model developed for the SST through the proposed methodology is able to predict solid distribution with high accuracy - taking a reasonable computational effort - when compared to multi-dimensional numerical experiments, under a wide range of flow and design conditions. iCFD tools could play a crucial role in reliably predicting systems' performance under normal and shock events. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Integrated Airport Competition Model, 1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldhuis, J.; Essers, I.; Bakker, D.; Cohn, N.; Kroes, E.

1999-01-01

This paper addresses recent model development by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) and Hague Consulting Group (HCG) concerning long-distance travel. Long-distance travel demand is growing very quickly and raising a great deal of economic and policy issues. There is increasing competition among the main Western European airports, and smaller, regional airports are fighting for market share. New modes of transport, such as high speed rail, are also coming into the picture and affect the mode split for medium distance transport within Europe. Developments such as these are demanding the attention of policy makers and a tool is required for their analysis. For DGCA, Hague Consulting Group has developed a model system to provide answers to the policy questions posed by these expected trends, and to identify areas where policy makers can influence the traveller choices. The development of this model system, the Integrated Airport Competition Model/integraal Luchthaven Competitie Model (ILCM), began in 1992. Since that time the sub-models, input data and user interface have been expanded, updated and improved. HCG and DGCA have transformed the ILCM from a prototype into an operational forecasting tool.

Experimental evaluation and thermodynamic system modeling of thermoelectric heat pump clothes dryer

DOE PAGES

Patel, Viral K.; Gluesenkamp, Kyle R.; Goodman, Dakota; ...

2018-02-28

Electric clothes dryers consume about 6% of US residential electricity consumption. Using a solid-state technology without refrigerant, thermoelectric (TE) heat pump dryers have the potential to be more efficient than units based on electric resistance and less expensive than units based on vapor compression. This study presents a steady state TE dryer model, and validates the model against results from an experimental prototype. The system model is composed of a TE heat pump element model coupled with a psychrometric dryer sub-model. Experimental results had energy factors (EFs) of up to 2.95 kg of dry cloth per kWh (6.51 lb c/kWh),more » with a dry time of 159 min. A faster dry time of 96 min was also achieved at an EF of 2.54 kg c/kWh (5.60 lb c/kWh). The model was able to replicate the experimental results within 5% of EF and 5% of dry time values. Finally, the results are used to identify important parameters that affect dryer performance, such as relative humidity of air leaving the drum.« less

The Integrated Airport Competition Model, 1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldhuis, J.; Essers, I.; Bakker, D.; Cohn, N.; Kroes, E.

1999-01-01

This paper addresses recent model development by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) and Hague Consulting Group (HCG) concerning long-distance travel, Long-distance travel demand is growing very quickly and raising a great deal of economic and policy issues. There is increasing competition among the main Western European airports, and smaller, regional airports are fighting for market share. New modes of transport, such as high speed rail, arc also coming into the picture and affect the mode split for medium distance transport within Europe. Developments such as these are demanding the attention of policy makers and a tool is required for their analysis. For DGCA, Hague Consulting Group has developed a model system to provide answers to the policy questions posed by these expected trends, and to identify areas where policy makers can influence the traveller choices. The development of this model system, the Integrated Airport Competition Model/Integral Luchthaven Competitive Model (ILCM), began in 1992. Since that time the sub-models, input data and user interface have been expanded, updated and improved. HCG and DGCA have transformed the ILCM from a prototype into an operational forecasting tool.

Experimental evaluation and thermodynamic system modeling of thermoelectric heat pump clothes dryer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patel, Viral K.; Gluesenkamp, Kyle R.; Goodman, Dakota

Electric clothes dryers consume about 6% of US residential electricity consumption. Using a solid-state technology without refrigerant, thermoelectric (TE) heat pump dryers have the potential to be more efficient than units based on electric resistance and less expensive than units based on vapor compression. This study presents a steady state TE dryer model, and validates the model against results from an experimental prototype. The system model is composed of a TE heat pump element model coupled with a psychrometric dryer sub-model. Experimental results had energy factors (EFs) of up to 2.95 kg of dry cloth per kWh (6.51 lb c/kWh),more » with a dry time of 159 min. A faster dry time of 96 min was also achieved at an EF of 2.54 kg c/kWh (5.60 lb c/kWh). The model was able to replicate the experimental results within 5% of EF and 5% of dry time values. Finally, the results are used to identify important parameters that affect dryer performance, such as relative humidity of air leaving the drum.« less

Approaches for Improving Earth System Science Education in Middle Schools and High Schools in the United States (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, P. E.

2009-12-01

Earth system science is an often neglected subject in the US science curriculum. The state of Kansas State Department of Education, for example, has provided teachers with a curriculum guide for incorporating earth system science as an ancillary topic within the subjects of physics, chemistry, and the biological sciences. While this does provide a means to have earth system science within the curriculum, it relegates earth system science topics to a secondary status. In practice, earth system science topics are considered optional or only taught if there is time within an already an overly crowded curriculum. Given the importance of developing an educated citizenry that is capable of understanding, coping, and deciding how to live in a world where climate change is a reality requires a deeper understanding of earth system science. The de-emphasis of earth system science in favor of other science disciplines makes it imperative to seek opportunities to provide teachers, whose primary subject is not earth system science, with professional development opportunities to develop content knowledge understanding of earth system science, and pedagogical content knowledge (i.e. effective strategies for teaching earth system science). This is a noble goal, but there is no single method. At Fort Hays State University we have developed multiple strategies from face-to-face workshops, on-line coursework, and academic year virtual and face-to-face consultations with in-service and pre-service teachers. A review of the techniques and measures of effectiveness (based on teacher and student performance), and strengths and limitations of each method will be presented as an aid to other institutions and programs seeking to improve the teaching and learning of earth system science in their region.

NASA's Earth Science Data Systems - Lessons Learned and Future Directions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramapriyan, Hampapuram K.

2010-01-01

In order to meet the increasing demand for Earth Science data, NASA has significantly improved the Earth Science Data Systems over the last two decades. This improvement is reviewed in this slide presentation. Many Earth Science disciplines have been able to access the data that is held in the Earth Observing System (EOS) Data and Information System (EOSDIS) at the Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs) that forms the core of the data system.

Understanding our Changing Planet: NASA's Earth Science Enterprise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forehand, Lon; Griner, Charlotte (Editor); Greenstone, Renny (Editor)

1999-01-01

NASA has been studying the Earth and its changing environment by observing the atmosphere, oceans, land, ice, and snow and their influence on climate and weather since the agency's creation. This study has lead to a new approach to understanding the interaction of the Earth's systems, Earth System Science. The Earth Science Enterprise, NASA's comprehensive program for Earth System Science, uses satellites and other tools to intensively study the Earth. The Earth Science Enterprise has three main components: (1) a series of Earth-observing satellites, (2) an advanced data system and (3) teams of scientist who study the data. Key areas of study include: (1) clouds, (2) water and energy cycles, (3) oceans, (4) chemistry of the atmosphere, (5) land surface, water and ecosystems processes; (6) glaciers and polar ice sheets, and (7) the solid earth.

Results of an adaptive environmental assessment modeling workshop concerning potential impacts of drilling muds and cuttings on the marine environment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Auble, Gregor T.; Andrews, Austin K.; Ellison, Richard A.; Hamilton, David B.; Johnson, Richard A.; Roelle, James E.; Marmorek, David R.

1983-01-01

Drilling fluids or "muds" are essential components of modern drilling operations. They provide integrity for the well bore, a medium for removal of formation cuttings, and lubrication and cooling of the drill bit and pipe. The modeling workshop described in this report was conducted September 14-18, 1981 in Gulf Breeze, Florida to consider potential impacts of discharged drilling muds and cuttings on the marine environment. The broad goals of the workshop were synthesis of information on fate and effects, identification of general relationships between drilling fluids and the marine environment, and identification of site-specific variables likely to determine impacts of drilling muds and cuttings in various marine sites. The workshop was structured around construction of a model simulating fate and effects of discharges from a single rig into open water areas of the Gulf of Mexico, and discussion of factors that might produce different fate and effects in enclosed areas such as bays and estuaries. The simulation model was composed of four connected submodels. A Discharge/Fate submodel dealt with the discharge characteristics of the rig and the subsequent fate of discharged material. Three effects submodels then calculated biological responses at distances away from the rig for the water column, soft bottom benthos (assuming the rig was located over a soft bottom environment), and hard bottom benthos (assuming the rig was located over a hard bottom environment). The model focused on direct linkages between the discharge and various organisms rather than on how the marine ecosystem itself is interconnected. Behavior of the simulation model indicated relatively localized effects of drilling muds and cuttings discharged from a single platform into open water areas. Water column fate and effects were dominated by rapid dilution. Effects from deposition of spent mud and cuttings were spatially limited with relatively rapid recovery, especially in soft bottom benthic communities which were conceptualized as being adapted to frequent storms. This behavior was generated by the set of assumptions about linkages and functional relationships used to construct the model. Areas of uncertainty included methods for extrapolating 96-hr LC50 so results to exposures of varying lengths and concentrations; recovery rates of benthic communities; responses to various depths and rates of burial; fate and effects of the plume in relationship to stratification layers; and long-term and sub-lethal effects of slightly elevated concentrations of discharged materials. Evaluation of the assumptions of the Soft Bottom Submodel suggest that the assumptions used may have been relatively liberal estimates of resiliency of these communities. Discussion of "closed" water bodies such as bays and estuaries indicated several reasons to expect different and more complex fate and effects behavior in these areas. These factors included different species and communities (such as aquatic macrophytes and oyster beds), more complex circulation and stratification patterns, and potentially more active resuspension processes. Much of the possible difference in behavior in these areas centers around the extent to which they are “closed” or in the relative residence times of water and sediments in these areas as they determine the long-term dispersion of discharged material. Despite the complexity and variability of these areas, a large body of knowledge (such as that concerning fate and physical effects of dredge spoil) that could be effectively employed in analysis of potential fate and physical effects in enclosed areas was identified.

Earth observing system: 1989 reference handbook

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1989-01-01

NASA is studying a coordinated effort called the Mission to Planet Earth to understand global change. The goals are to understand the Earth as a system, and to determine those processes that contribute to the environmental balance, as well as those that may result in changes. The Earth Observing System (Eos) is the centerpiece of the program. Eos will create an integrated scientific observing system that will enable multidisciplinary study of the Earth including the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, polar regions, and solid Earth. Science goals, the Eos data and information system, experiments, measuring instruments, and interdisciplinary investigations are described.

Earth orbit navigation study. Volume 2: System evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1972-01-01

An overall systems evaluation was made of five candidate navigation systems in support of earth orbit missions. The five systems were horizon sensor system, unkown landmark tracking system, ground transponder system, manned space flight network, and tracking and data relay satellite system. Two reference missions were chosen: a low earth orbit mission and a transfer trajectory mission from low earth orbit to geosynchronous orbit. The specific areas addressed in the evaluation were performance, multifunction utilization, system mechanization, and cost.

An Overview of the EOS Data Dissemination Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramapriyan, H.K.; Pfister, Robin; Weinstein, Beth

2008-01-01

The Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) is the primary data system serving the broad-scope of NASA s Earth Observing System (EOS) program and a significant portion of the "heritage" Earth science data. EOSDIS was designed to support the Earth sciences within NASA s Science Mission Directorate (previously the Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) and Mission to Planet Earth). The EOS Program was NASA s contribution to the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) enacted by Congress in 1990 as part of the Global Change Act. ESE s objective was to launch a series of missions to help answer fundamental global change questions such as "How is Earth changing?" and "What are the consequences for life on Earth?" resulting support of this objective, EOSDIS distributes a wide variety of data to a diverse community.

HANFORD DST THERMAL & SEISMIC PROJECT ANSYS BENCHMARK ANALYSIS OF SEISMIC INDUCED FLUID STRUCTURE INTERACTION IN A HANFORD DOUBLE SHELL PRIMARY TANK

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MACKEY, T.C.

M&D Professional Services, Inc. (M&D) is under subcontract to Pacific Northwest National Laboratories (PNNL) to perform seismic analysis of the Hanford Site Double-Shell Tanks (DSTs) in support of a project entitled ''Double-Shell Tank (DSV Integrity Project-DST Thermal and Seismic Analyses)''. The overall scope of the project is to complete an up-to-date comprehensive analysis of record of the DST System at Hanford in support of Tri-Party Agreement Milestone M-48-14. The work described herein was performed in support of the seismic analysis of the DSTs. The thermal and operating loads analysis of the DSTs is documented in Rinker et al. (2004). Themore » overall seismic analysis of the DSTs is being performed with the general-purpose finite element code ANSYS. The overall model used for the seismic analysis of the DSTs includes the DST structure, the contained waste, and the surrounding soil. The seismic analysis of the DSTs must address the fluid-structure interaction behavior and sloshing response of the primary tank and contained liquid. ANSYS has demonstrated capabilities for structural analysis, but the capabilities and limitations of ANSYS to perform fluid-structure interaction are less well understood. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the capabilities and investigate the limitations of ANSYS for performing a fluid-structure interaction analysis of the primary tank and contained waste. To this end, the ANSYS solutions are benchmarked against theoretical solutions appearing in BNL 1995, when such theoretical solutions exist. When theoretical solutions were not available, comparisons were made to theoretical solutions of similar problems and to the results from Dytran simulations. The capabilities and limitations of the finite element code Dytran for performing a fluid-structure interaction analysis of the primary tank and contained waste were explored in a parallel investigation (Abatt 2006). In conjunction with the results of the global ANSYS analysis reported in Carpenter et al. (2006), the results of the two investigations will be compared to help determine if a more refined sub-model of the primary tank is necessary to capture the important fluid-structure interaction effects in the tank and if so, how to best utilize a refined sub-model of the primary tank. Both rigid tank and flexible tank configurations were analyzed with ANSYS. The response parameters of interest are total hydrodynamic reaction forces, impulsive and convective mode frequencies, waste pressures, and slosh heights. To a limited extent: tank stresses are also reported. The results of this study demonstrate that the ANSYS model has the capability to adequately predict global responses such as frequencies and overall reaction forces. Thus, the model is suitable for predicting the global response of the tank and contained waste. On the other hand, while the ANSYS model is capable of adequately predicting waste pressures and primary tank stresses in a large portion of the waste tank, the model does not accurately capture the convective behavior of the waste near the free surface, nor did the model give accurate predictions of slosh heights. Based on the ability of the ANSYS benchmark model to accurately predict frequencies and global reaction forces and on the results presented in Abatt, et al. (2006), the global ANSYS model described in Carpenter et al. (2006) is sufficient for the seismic evaluation of all tank components except for local areas of the primary tank. Due to the limitations of the ANSYS model in predicting the convective response of the waste, the evaluation of primary tank stresses near the waste free surface should be supplemented by results from an ANSYS sub-model of the primary tank that incorporates pressures from theoretical solutions or from Dytran solutions. However, the primary tank is expected to have low demand to capacity ratios in the upper wall. Moreover, due to the less than desired mesh resolution in the primary tank knuckle of the global ANSYS model, the evaluation of the primary tank stresses in the lower knuckle should be supplemented by results from a more refined ANSYS sub-model of the primary tank that incorporates pressures from theoretical solutions or from Dytran solutions.« less

Asteroid impacts on terrestrial planets: the effects of super-Earths and the role of the ν6 resonance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smallwood, Jeremy L.; Martin, Rebecca G.; Lepp, Stephen; Livio, Mario

2018-01-01

With N-body simulations of a planetary system with an asteroid belt, we investigate how the asteroid impact rate on the Earth is affected by the architecture of the planetary system. We find that the ν6 secular resonance plays an important role in the asteroid collision rate with the Earth. Compared to exoplanetary systems, the Solar system is somewhat special in its lack of a super-Earth mass planet in the inner Solar system. We therefore first consider the effects of the presence of a super-Earth in the terrestrial planet region. We find a significant effect for super-Earths with a mass of around 10 M⊕ and a separation greater than about 0.7 au. For a super-Earth which is interior to the Earth's orbit, the number of asteroids colliding with Earth increases the closer the super-Earth is to the Earth's orbit. This is the result of multiple secular resonance locations causing more asteroids to be perturbed on to Earth-crossing orbits. When the super-Earth is placed exterior to Earth's orbit, the collision rate decreases substantially because the ν6 resonance no longer exists in the asteroid belt region. We also find that changing the semimajor axis of Saturn leads to a significant decrease in the asteroid collision rate, though increasing its mass increases the collision rate. These results may have implications for the habitability of exoplanetary systems.

Development of a Distributed Source Containment Transport, Transformation, and Fate (CTT&F) Sub-Model for Military Installations

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-08-01

includes soil erodibility terms from the Universal Soil Lass Equation ( USLE ) for estimating the overland sediment transport capacity (for both the x and y...q = unit flow rate of water = va h [L2/T] vc = critical velocity for erosion overland [L/T] K = USLE soil erodibility factor C = USLE soil ...cover factor P = USLE soil management practice factor Be = width of eroding surface in flow direction [L]. In channels, sediment particles can be

Development of a Distributed Nutrient Sub-Model (NSM Version 1.0) for Watersheds - Kinetic Process Descriptions

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-11-01

Broad Crested Weir 0.70 to 0.90 Sharp Crested Weir with Straight Slope Face 1.05 Sharp Crested Weir with Vertical Face 0.80 Sluice Gates with...Reaeration by turbulent flow over a dam Reaeration will occur when water falls over a dam, weir , or other structure in the stream. The amount of reaeration...Goulding. 1995. Phosphorus leaching from soils containing different phosphorus concentrations in the Broad - balk experiment. J. Environ. Qual. 24:904–910

Computational fluid dynamics combustion analysis evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Y. M.; Shang, H. M.; Chen, C. P.; Ziebarth, J. P.

1992-01-01

This study involves the development of numerical modelling in spray combustion. These modelling efforts are mainly motivated to improve the computational efficiency in the stochastic particle tracking method as well as to incorporate the physical submodels of turbulence, combustion, vaporization, and dense spray effects. The present mathematical formulation and numerical methodologies can be casted in any time-marching pressure correction methodologies (PCM) such as FDNS code and MAST code. A sequence of validation cases involving steady burning sprays and transient evaporating sprays will be included.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holland, Troy Michael; Kress, Joel David; Bhat, Kabekode Ghanasham

Year 1 Objectives (August 2016 – December 2016) – The original Independence model is a sequentially regressed set of parameters from numerous data sets in the Aspen Plus modeling framework. The immediate goal with the basic data model is to collect and evaluate those data sets relevant to the thermodynamic submodels (pure substance heat capacity, solvent mixture heat capacity, loaded solvent heat capacities, and volatility data). These data are informative for the thermodynamic parameters involved in both vapor-liquid equilibrium, and in the chemical equilibrium of the liquid phase.

Finite Element Simulation Methods for Dry Sliding Wear

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-27

effects of wear only occur on a microscopic level (3; 14; 17). A third reason that wear is not well understood is that it involves many different...material or one with a higher coefficient of friction there will be more of a problem with high pressure points. A third possibility is to spread the...For the local model the rail is modeled as a deformable body , and a small, 1 mm, square is taken from the slipper as the submodel. 5.2 The Global

An assessment of local risk. [to area associated with commercial operations of aircraft with graphite fiber composite structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pocinki, L. S.

1979-01-01

A status report is presented on the assessment of the risk at Washington National Airport and the surrounding Washington, D.C. area associated with commercial operations of aircraft with graphite fiber composite in their structures. The presentation is outlined as follows: (1) overall strategy; (2) need for individual airport results; (3) airport-metro area model - submodels, method, assumptions and data; and (4) preliminary results for National Airport - D.C. area.

Complication Reducing Effect of the Information Technology-Based Diabetes Management System on Subjects with Type 2 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Cho, Jae-Hyoung; Lee, Jin-Hee; Oh, Jeong-Ah; Kang, Mi-Ja; Choi, Yoon-Hee; Kwon, Hyuk-Sang; Chang, Sang-Ah; Cha, Bong-Yun; Son, Ho-Young; Yoon, Kun-Ho

2008-01-01

Objective We introduced a new information technology-based diabetes management system, called the Internet-based glucose monitoring system (IBGMS), and demonstrated its short-term and long-term favorable effects. However, there has been no report on clinical effects of such a new diabetes management system on the development of diabetic complications so far. This study was used to simulate the complication reducing effect of the IBGMS, given in addition to existing treatments in patients with type 2 diabetes. Research Design and Methods The CORE Diabetes Model, a peer-reviewed, published, validated computer simulation model, was used to project long-term clinical outcomes in type 2 diabetes patients receiving the IBGMS in addition to their existing treatment. The model combined standard Markov submodels to simulate the incidence and progression of diabetes-related complications. Results The addition of IBGMS was associated with improvements in reducing diabetic complications, mainly microangiopathic complications, including diabetic retinopathy, diabetic neuropathy, diabetic nephropathy, and diabetic foot ulcer. The IBGMS also delayed the development of all diabetic complications for more than 1 year. Conclusions This study demonstrated that the simulated IBGMS, compared to existing treatment, was associated with a reduction of diabetic complications. As a result, it provides valuable evidence for practical application to the public in the world. PMID:19885180

A New Analytic-Adaptive Model for EGS Assessment, Development and Management Support

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Danko, George L

To increase understanding of the energy extraction capacity of Enhanced Geothermal System(s) (EGS), a numerical model development and application project is completed. The general objective of the project is to develop and apply a new, data-coupled Thermal-Hydrological-Mechanical-Chemical (T-H-M-C) model in which the four internal components can be freely selected from existing simulation software without merging and cross-combining a diverse set of computational codes. Eight tasks are completed during the project period. The results are reported in five publications, an MS thesis, twelve quarterly, and two annual reports to DOE. Two US patents have also been issued during the project period,more » with one patent application originated prior to the start of the project. The “Multiphase Physical Transport Modeling Method and Modeling System” (U.S. Patent 8,396,693 B2, 2013), a key element in the GHE sub-model solution, is successfully used for EGS studies. The “Geothermal Energy Extraction System and Method" invention (U.S. Patent 8,430,166 B2, 2013) originates from the time of project performance, describing a new fluid flow control solution. The new, coupled T-H-M-C numerical model will help analyzing and designing new, efficient EGS systems.« less

Modeling potential impacts of the Garrison Diversion Unit project on Sand Lake and Arrowwood National Wildlife Refuges: a feasibility analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamilton, David B.; Auble, Gregor T.; Farmer, Adrian H.; Roelle, James E.

1987-01-01

The Garrison Diversion Unit (GDU) of the Pick-Sloan Missouri Basin program was authorized in 1965, with the purpose of diverting Missouri River water to the James River for irrigation, municipal and industrial water supply, fish and wildlife habitat, recreation, and flood control. The project was reauthorized in 1986, with the specification that comprehensive studies be conducted to address a variety of issues. One of these ongoing studies addresses potential impacts of GDU construction and operation on lands of the National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) system, including Arrowwood and Sand Lake Refuges (the Refuges) on the James River. A number of concerns at these Refuges have been identified; the primary concerns addressed in this report include increased winter return flows, which would limit control of rough fish; increased turbidity during project construction, which would decrease production of sago pondweed; and increased water level fluctuations in the late spring and early summer, which would destroy the nests of some over-water nesting birds. The facilitated workshop described in this report was conducted February 18-20, 1987, under the joint sponsorship of the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the North Dakota Game and Fish Department. The primary objectives of the workshop were to evaluate the feasibility of using simulation modeling techniques to estimate GDU impacts on Arrowwood and Sand Lake Refuges and to suggest enhancements to the James River Refuge monitoring program. The workshop was structured around the formulation of four submodels: a Hydrology and Water Quality submodel to simulate changes in Refuge pool elevations, turnover rates, and water quality parameters (e.g., total dissolved solids, turbidity, dissolved oxygen, nutrients, water temperature, pesticides) due to GDU construction and operation; a Vegetation submodel to simulate concomitant changes in wetland communities (e.g., sago pondweed, wet meadows, deep and shallow marsh); a Fish submodel to estimate changes in abundance or biomass of rough fish (carp, buffalo) and sportfish (northern pike); and a Wildlife submodel to calculate indices of waterfowl abundance or habitat suitability (e.g., for mallards, western grebes, migrating diving ducks, white-faced ibis, egrets, over-water nesters). Submodels considered weekly to monthly changes in pools within a Refuge over a time horizon of 30-50 years. Based on workshop discussions and past experience with impact analysis modeling, a phased modeling approach was recommended for the James River Refuges analysis. The first phase would involve two modeling efforts. The existing Sand Lake hydrology model, and a similar one developed for Arrowwood NWR, would be validated and used to predict changes on pool elevations and winter inflows to each pool for a variety of GDU alternatives. Outputs from simulations would then be evaluated in terms of potential fish and wildlife impacts. For example, the models could generate indices comparing the magnitude and timing of winter inflows for pre- and postproject conditions; fisheries biologists could then use these indices to better quantify their concerns relative to potential changes in the frequency of rough-fish control. The other modeling effort in the first phase would involve developing a sago pondweed growth model to integrate Refuge monitoring data and existing literature and perhaps to address some questions concerning turbidity impacts. A second phase of simulation modeling would be undertaken only if the initial analyses of hydrologic outputs indicated significant potential problems and if monitoring and research projects had clarified some of the biological and physical processes that cannot be modeled reliably at the present time (e.g., resuspension of sediments by carp, immigration and winter mortality of fish, loss of waterfowl nests due to wave action). The second phase would attempt to develop an integrated impact assessment model. In order to address some of the biological and physical processes that presently are not well understood, a number of studies and enhancements to the Refuge monitoring program were suggested. The Hydrology and Water Quality workgroup recommended increasing turbidity and dissolved oxygen sampling, dropping expensive analysis of some trace elements, adding more pesticide analysis (including some biological monitoring), and developing better area-capacity data for the Sand Lake hydrology model. The Vegetation workgroup suggested expanding the number of monitoring stations, monitoring photosynthetically active radiation by depth, and modifying the biomass sampling procedure and schedule. Also suggested were additional analyses of existing Refuge monitoring data and additional field studies concerning sago growth under a variety of environmental conditions and effects of rough fish density on sago. A careful examination of Refuge narrative reports was recommended by the Fish workgroup to characterize conditions that led to various rates of winter-kill. Monitoring enhancement related to a better understanding of fish population dynamics included increasing dissolved oxygen monitoring, continuing present monitoring of fish movement upstream from Jamestown Reservoir into Arrowwood NWR, initiating similar efforts for upstream movement into Sand Lake NWR and downstream movements into both Refuges, and augmenting the present gillnetting program (or replacing it) with sampling for population and age/size structure estimates. The Wildlife workgroup suggested estimating the relative density of mallard nests in over-water and wet meadow nesting areas, estimating the number of western grebe nests lost due to wave action, delineating wet meadows on the Refuge vegetation maps, estimating annual tuber consumption by birds, and monitoring insect/macroinvertebrate abundance. The workgroup also suggested research studies to better understand the relationships between food supplies and the growth and survival of ducklings and young grebes. the workshop discussions also helped identify some suggestions for modifying project features that, if feasible from an engineering and operational standpoint, would reduce impacts on Refuge lands. These suggestions included: designing drains with control structures or small "reregulation" reservoirs to hold winter return flows that might adversely affect rough fish control, spreading construction activities over a number of years to reduce potential impacts of turbidity on sago pondweed in any single year, scheduling construction to occur after the spring sprouting and elongation growth stages to reduce impacts on sago pondweed, and installing "quick acting" control structures at Arrowwood NWR to reduce pool level fluctuations that might destroy nests of some over-water nesting waterfowl.

Tube dynamics and low energy Earth-Moon transfers in the 4-body system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onozaki, Kaori; Yoshimura, Hiroaki; Ross, Shane D.

2017-11-01

In this paper, we show a low energy Earth-Moon transfer in the context of the Sun-Earth-Moon-spacecraft 4-body system. We consider the 4-body system as the coupled system of the Sun-Earth-spacecraft 3-body system perturbed by the Moon (which we call the Moon-perturbed system) and the Earth-Moon-spacecraft 3-body system perturbed by the Sun (which we call the Sun-perturbed system). In both perturbed systems, analogs of the stable and unstable manifolds are computed numerically by using the notion of Lagrangian coherent structures, wherein the stable and unstable manifolds play the role of separating orbits into transit and non-transit orbits. We obtain a family of non-transit orbits departing from a low Earth orbit in the Moon-perturbed system, and a family of transit orbits arriving into a low lunar orbit in the Sun-perturbed system. Finally, we show that we can construct a low energy transfer from the Earth to the Moon by choosing appropriate trajectories from both families and patching these trajectories with a maneuver.

Making Earth Science Data Records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs) Projects Data and Services at the GES DISC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vollmer, Bruce E.; Ostrenga, D.; Savtchenko, A.; Johnson, J.; Wei, J.; Teng, W.; Gerasimov, I.

2011-01-01

NASA's Earth Science Program is dedicated to advancing Earth remote sensing and pioneering the scientific use of satellite measurements to improve human understanding of our home planet. Through the MEaSUREs Program, NASA is continuing its commitment to expand understanding of the Earth system using consistent data records. Emphasis is on linking together multiple data sources to form coherent time-series, and facilitating the use of extensive data in the development of comprehensive Earth system models. A primary focus of the MEaSUREs Program is the creation of Earth System Data Records (ESDRs). An ESDR is defined as a unified and coherent set of observations of a given parameter of the Earth system, which is optimized to meet specific requirements for addressing science questions. These records are critical for understanding Earth System processes; for the assessment of variability, long-term trends, and change in the Earth System; and for providing input and validation means to modeling efforts. Seven MEaSUREs projects will be archived and distributed through services at the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC).

The Australian Computational Earth Systems Simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mora, P.; Muhlhaus, H.; Lister, G.; Dyskin, A.; Place, D.; Appelbe, B.; Nimmervoll, N.; Abramson, D.

2001-12-01

Numerical simulation of the physics and dynamics of the entire earth system offers an outstanding opportunity for advancing earth system science and technology but represents a major challenge due to the range of scales and physical processes involved, as well as the magnitude of the software engineering effort required. However, new simulation and computer technologies are bringing this objective within reach. Under a special competitive national funding scheme to establish new Major National Research Facilities (MNRF), the Australian government together with a consortium of Universities and research institutions have funded construction of the Australian Computational Earth Systems Simulator (ACcESS). The Simulator or computational virtual earth will provide the research infrastructure to the Australian earth systems science community required for simulations of dynamical earth processes at scales ranging from microscopic to global. It will consist of thematic supercomputer infrastructure and an earth systems simulation software system. The Simulator models and software will be constructed over a five year period by a multi-disciplinary team of computational scientists, mathematicians, earth scientists, civil engineers and software engineers. The construction team will integrate numerical simulation models (3D discrete elements/lattice solid model, particle-in-cell large deformation finite-element method, stress reconstruction models, multi-scale continuum models etc) with geophysical, geological and tectonic models, through advanced software engineering and visualization technologies. When fully constructed, the Simulator aims to provide the software and hardware infrastructure needed to model solid earth phenomena including global scale dynamics and mineralisation processes, crustal scale processes including plate tectonics, mountain building, interacting fault system dynamics, and micro-scale processes that control the geological, physical and dynamic behaviour of earth systems. ACcESS represents a part of Australia's contribution to the APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation (ACES) international initiative. Together with other national earth systems science initiatives including the Japanese Earth Simulator and US General Earthquake Model projects, ACcESS aims to provide a driver for scientific advancement and technological breakthroughs including: quantum leaps in understanding of earth evolution at global, crustal, regional and microscopic scales; new knowledge of the physics of crustal fault systems required to underpin the grand challenge of earthquake prediction; new understanding and predictive capabilities of geological processes such as tectonics and mineralisation.

Thermal Modeling Method Improvements for SAGE III on ISS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liles, Kaitlin; Amundsen, Ruth; Davis, Warren; McLeod, Shawn

2015-01-01

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) instrument is the fifth in a series of instruments developed for monitoring aerosols and gaseous constituents in the stratosphere and troposphere. SAGE III will be delivered to the International Space Station (ISS) via the SpaceX Dragon vehicle. A detailed thermal model of the SAGE III payload, which consists of multiple subsystems, has been developed in Thermal Desktop (TD). Many innovative analysis methods have been used in developing this model; these will be described in the paper. This paper builds on a paper presented at TFAWS 2013, which described some of the initial developments of efficient methods for SAGE III. The current paper describes additional improvements that have been made since that time. To expedite the correlation of the model to thermal vacuum (TVAC) testing, the chambers and GSE for both TVAC chambers at Langley used to test the payload were incorporated within the thermal model. This allowed the runs of TVAC predictions and correlations to be run within the flight model, thus eliminating the need for separate models for TVAC. In one TVAC test, radiant lamps were used which necessitated shooting rays from the lamps, and running in both solar and IR wavebands. A new Dragon model was incorporated which entailed a change in orientation; that change was made using an assembly, so that any potential additional new Dragon orbits could be added in the future without modification of the model. The Earth orbit parameters such as albedo and Earth infrared flux were incorporated as time-varying values that change over the course of the orbit; despite being required in one of the ISS documents, this had not been done before by any previous payload. All parameters such as initial temperature, heater voltage, and location of the payload are defined based on the case definition. For one component, testing was performed in both air and vacuum; incorporating the air convection in a submodel that was only built for the in-air cases allowed correlation of all testing to be done in a single model. These modeling improvements and more will be described and illustrated in the paper.

Student Learning of Complex Earth Systems: Conceptual Frameworks of Earth Systems and Instructional Design

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scherer, Hannah H.; Holder, Lauren; Herbert, Bruce

2017-01-01

Engaging students in authentic problem solving concerning environmental issues in near-surface complex Earth systems involves both developing student conceptualization of Earth as a system and applying that scientific knowledge using techniques that model those used by professionals. In this first paper of a two-part series, we review the state of…

Building A Cloud Based Distributed Active Data Archive Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramachandran, Rahul; Baynes, Katie; Murphy, Kevin

2017-01-01

NASA's Earth Science Data System (ESDS) Program facilitates the implementation of NASA's Earth Science strategic plan, which is committed to the full and open sharing of Earth science data obtained from NASA instruments to all users. The Earth Science Data information System (ESDIS) project manages the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). Data within EOSDIS are held at Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs). One of the key responsibilities of the ESDS Program is to continuously evolve the entire data and information system to maximize returns on the collected NASA data.

Earth observing system. Data and information system. Volume 2A: Report of the EOS Data Panel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1986-01-01

The purpose of this report is to provide NASA with a rationale and recommendations for planning, implementing, and operating an Earth Observing System data and information system that can evolve to meet the Earth Observing System's needs in the 1990s. The Earth Observing System (Eos), defined by the Eos Science and Mission Requirements Working Group, consists of a suite of instruments in low Earth orbit acquiring measurements of the Earth's atmosphere, surface, and interior; an information system to support scientific research; and a vigorous program of scientific research, stressing study of global-scale processes that shape and influence the Earth as a system. The Eos data and information system is conceived as a complete research information system that would transcend the traditional mission data system, and include additional capabilties such as maintaining long-term, time-series data bases and providing access by Eos researchers to relevant non-Eos data. The Working Group recommends that the Eos data and information system be initiated now, with existing data, and that the system evolve into one that can meet the intensive research and data needs that will exist when Eos spacecraft are returning data in the 1990s.

EOS Reference Handbook 1999: A Guide to NASA's Earth Science Enterprise and the Earth Observing System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

King, M. D. (Editor); Greenstone, R. (Editor)

2000-01-01

The content of this handbook includes Earth Science Enterprise; The Earth Observing System; EOS Data and Information System (EOSDIS); Data and Information Policy; Pathfinder Data Sets; Earth Science Information Partners and the Working Prototype-Federation; EOS Data Quality: Calibration and Validation; Education Programs; International Cooperation; Interagency Coordination; Mission Elements; EOS Instruments; EOS Interdisciplinary Science Investigations; and Points-of-Contact.

Integrated human-earth system modeling—state of the science and future directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvin, Katherine; Bond-Lamberty, Ben

2018-06-01

Research on humans and the Earth system has historically occurred separately, with different teams and models devoted to each. Increasingly, however, these communities and models are becoming intricately linked. In this review, we survey the literature on integrated human-Earth system models, quantify the direction and strength of feedbacks in those models, and put them in context of other, more frequently considered, feedbacks in the Earth system. We find that such feedbacks have the potential to alter both human and Earth systems; however, there is significant uncertainty in these results, and the number of truly integrated studies remains small. More research, more models, and more studies are needed to robustly quantify the sign and magnitude of human-Earth system feedbacks. Integrating human and earth models entails significant complexity and cost, and researchers should carefully assess the costs and benefits of doing so with respect to the object of study.

Development of educational programs using Dagik Earth, a four dimensional display of the Earth and planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito, A.; Akiya, Y.; Yoshida, D.; Odagi, Y.; Yoshikawa, M.; Tsugawa, T.; Takahashi, M.; Kumano, Y.; Iwasaki, S.

2010-12-01

We have developed a four-dimensional display system of the Earth and planets to use in schools, science centers, and research institutes. It can display the Earth and planets in three-dimensional way without glasses, and the time variation of the scientific data can be displayed on the Earth and planets image. The system is named Dagik Earth, and educational programs using Dagik Earth have been developed for schools and science centers. Three dimensional displays can show the Earth and planets in exact form without any distortion, which cannot be achieved with two-dimensional display. Furthermore it can provide a sense of reality. There are several systems for the three-dimensional presentation of the Earth, such as Science on a sphere by NOAA, and Geocosmos by Miraikan, Japan. Comparing these systems, the advantage of Dagik Earth is portability and affordability. The system uses ordinary PC and PC projector. Only a spherical screen is the special equipment of Dagik Earth. Therefore Dagik Earth is easy to use in classrooms. Several educational programs have been developed and carried out in high schools, junior high schools, elementary schools and science centers. Several research institutes have used Dagik Earth in their public outreach programs to demonstrate their novel scientific results to public in an attractive way of presentation. A community of users and developers of Dagik Earth is being formed in Japan. In the presentation, the outline of Dagik Earth and the educational programs using Dagik Earth will be presented. Its future plan will also be discussed.

A New Direct Coupled Regional-scale Meteorology and Chemistry Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Hsu, S.; Liu, T.; Chiang, C.; Chang, J.

2007-12-01

WRF/Chem was first developed in the US and generously made available to the international research community a short time ago. Starting from this, many groups have contributed new components and subroutines to this model. Based on WRF/Chem, a new online integrated model system named WRF/ChemT was established in Taiwan. It is significantly different from WRF/Chem in the following important aspects. For an online model, all chemical species emission must be direct coupled to WRF meteorology. All publicly available versions of WRF/Chem do not have this fundamental coupling. For these WRF/Chem models all emission data must first be preprocessed by SMOKE or other emission models driven by MM5 or WRF meteorologies in offline manner. WRF/ChemT has a self-consistent online emission process. We replaced the old emission driver with NCU driver, the plume rise of point sources and biogenic VOCs emission are calculated online. So that meteorology model, emission model and chemistry transport model are coupled directly in WRF/ChemT. Cloud impact on actinic flux should be consistent with WRF cloud-aerosol submodel used, not just moisture parameterization. Photolysis rates in WRF/ChemT are self consistent in every sub modules. New dry deposition routines were developed including addition of a vertical mixing scheme named the Asymmetrical Convective Model (ACM) which is used in CMAQ. The advantage of using ACM submodel had been demonstrated in earlier studies. Computational inefficiency has been a lingering problem for WRF/Chem. We have worked on this aspect of WRF/Chem development and by using a new chemical solver and also reorganizing the operator splitting computational algorithm we have made significant computational speed gain. WRF/chemT is about a factor of 4 faster in the chemistry solver and a factor of 2 faster in chemical species transport. When added together it is about a factor of 2 faster than WRF/Chem(version 2.1.2), i. e. gas-phase chemistry and meteorology are now equally fast. WRF/ChemT was evaluated and applied in regional air quality research in Taiwan. The comparison with WRF/Chem and selected current applications will be discussed in this report.

Kepler Confirms First Earth-Sized Planet Outside Our Solar System (Kepler-20) (Reporter Package)

NASA Image and Video Library

2011-12-19

NASA's Kepler mission has confirmed the discovery of the first Earth-size planets outside our solar system orbiting a sun-like star. Located about 1,000 light years from Earth, the Kepler-20 solar system has five planets orbiting a star similar to the Sun. Kepler-20f, the 4th planet in the system, is about 90 percent the size of Earth. Kepler-20f is slightly larger than Earth,with a radius that is 3 percent larger.

Modeling the Earth System, volume 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ojima, Dennis (Editor)

1992-01-01

The topics covered fall under the following headings: critical gaps in the Earth system conceptual framework; development needs for simplified models; and validating Earth system models and their subcomponents.

The CHAOS-4 geomagnetic field model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olsen, Nils; Lühr, Hermann; Finlay, Christopher C.; Sabaka, Terence J.; Michaelis, Ingo; Rauberg, Jan; Tøffner-Clausen, Lars

2014-05-01

We present CHAOS-4, a new version in the CHAOS model series, which aims to describe the Earth's magnetic field with high spatial and temporal resolution. Terms up to spherical degree of at least n = 85 for the lithospheric field, and up to n = 16 for the time-varying core field are robustly determined. More than 14 yr of data from the satellites Ørsted, CHAMP and SAC-C, augmented with magnetic observatory monthly mean values have been used for this model. Maximum spherical harmonic degree of the static (lithospheric) field is n = 100. The core field is expressed by spherical harmonic expansion coefficients up to n = 20; its time-evolution is described by order six splines, with 6-month knot spacing, spanning the time interval 1997.0-2013.5. The third time derivative of the squared radial magnetic field component is regularized at the core-mantle boundary. No spatial regularization is applied to the core field, but the high-degree lithospheric field is regularized for n > 85. CHAOS-4 model is derived by merging two submodels: its low-degree part has been derived using similar model parametrization and data sets as used for previous CHAOS models (but of course including more recent data), while its high-degree lithospheric field part is solely determined from low-altitude CHAMP satellite observations taken during the last 2 yr (2008 September-2010 September) of the mission. We obtain a good agreement with other recent lithospheric field models like MF7 for degrees up to n = 85, confirming that lithospheric field structures down to a horizontal wavelength of 500 km are currently robustly determined.

Simulating topographic controls on the abundance of larch forest in eastern Siberia, and its consequences under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, H.; Kobayashi, H.

2017-12-01

In eastern Siberia, larches (Larix spp.) often exist in pure stands, constructing the world's largest coniferous forest, of which changes can significantly affect the earth's albedo and the global carbon balance. Our previous studies tried to reconstruct this vegetation, aiming to forecast its structures and functions under changing climate (1, 2). In previous studies of simulating vegetation at large geographical scales, the examining area is divided into coarse grid cells such as 0.5 × 0.5 degree resolution, and topographical heterogeneities within each grid cell are just ignored. However, in Siberian larch area, which is located on the environmental edge of existence of forest ecosystem, abundance of larch trees largely depends on topographic condition at the scale of tens to hundreds meters. In our preliminary analysis, we found a quantitative pattern that topographic properties controls the abundance of larch forest via both drought and flooding stresses in eastern Siberia. We, therefore, refined the hydrological sub-model of our dynamic vegetation model SEIB-DGVM, and validated whether the modified model can reconstruct the pattern, examined its impact on the estimation of biomass and vegetation productivity under the current and forecasted future climatic conditions. -- References --1. Sato, H., et al. (2010). "Simulation study of the vegetation structure and function in eastern Siberian larch forests using the individual-based vegetation model SEIB-DGVM." Forest Ecology and Management 259(3): 301-311. 2. Sato, H., et al. (2016). "Endurance of larch forest ecosystems in eastern Siberia under warming trends." Ecology and Evolution

Stratigraphic and Earth System approaches to defining the Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steffen, Will; Leinfelder, Reinhold; Zalasiewicz, Jan; Waters, Colin N.; Williams, Mark; Summerhayes, Colin; Barnosky, Anthony D.; Cearreta, Alejandro; Crutzen, Paul; Edgeworth, Matt; Ellis, Erle C.; Fairchild, Ian J.; Galuszka, Agnieszka; Grinevald, Jacques; Haywood, Alan; Ivar do Sul, Juliana; Jeandel, Catherine; McNeill, J. R.; Odada, Eric; Oreskes, Naomi; Revkin, Andrew; Richter, Daniel deB.; Syvitski, James; Vidas, Davor; Wagreich, Michael; Wing, Scott L.; Wolfe, Alexander P.; Schellnhuber, H. J.

2016-08-01

Stratigraphy provides insights into the evolution and dynamics of the Earth System over its long history. With recent developments in Earth System science, changes in Earth System dynamics can now be observed directly and projected into the near future. An integration of the two approaches provides powerful insights into the nature and significance of contemporary changes to Earth. From both perspectives, the Earth has been pushed out of the Holocene Epoch by human activities, with the mid-20th century a strong candidate for the start date of the Anthropocene, the proposed new epoch in Earth history. Here we explore two contrasting scenarios for the future of the Anthropocene, recognizing that the Earth System has already undergone a substantial transition away from the Holocene state. A rapid shift of societies toward the UN Sustainable Development Goals could stabilize the Earth System in a state with more intense interglacial conditions than in the late Quaternary climate regime and with little further biospheric change. In contrast, a continuation of the present Anthropocene trajectory of growing human pressures will likely lead to biotic impoverishment and a much warmer climate with a significant loss of polar ice.

A comparative assessment of economic-incentive and command-and-control instruments for air pollution and CO2 control in China's iron and steel sector.

PubMed

Liu, Zhaoyang; Mao, Xianqiang; Tu, Jianjun; Jaccard, Mark

2014-11-01

China's iron and steel sector is faced with increasing pressure to control both local air pollutants and CO2 simultaneously. Additional policy instruments are needed to co-control these emissions in this sector. This study quantitatively evaluates and compares two categories of emission reduction instruments, namely the economic-incentive (EI) instrument of a carbon tax, and the command-and-control (CAC) instrument of mandatory application of end-of-pipe emission control measures for CO2, SO2 and NOx. The comparative evaluation tool is an integrated assessment model, which combines a top-down computable general equilibrium sub-model and a bottom-up technology-based sub-model through a soft-linkage. The simulation results indicate that the carbon tax can co-control multiple pollutants, but the emission reduction rates are limited under the tax rates examined in this study. In comparison, the CAC instruments are found to have excellent effects on controlling different pollutants separately, but not jointly. Such results indicate that no single EI or CAC instrument is overwhelmingly superior. The environmental and economic effectiveness of an instrument highly depends on its specific attributes, and cannot be predicted by the general policy category. These findings highlight the necessity of clearer identification of policy target priorities, and detail-oriented and integrated policy-making among different governmental departments. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the Geographic Spread of Rabies in China

PubMed Central

Chen, Jing; Zou, Lan; Jin, Zhen; Ruan, Shigui

2015-01-01

In order to investigate how the movement of dogs affects the geographically inter-provincial spread of rabies in Mainland China, we propose a multi-patch model to describe the transmission dynamics of rabies between dogs and humans, in which each province is regarded as a patch. In each patch the submodel consists of susceptible, exposed, infectious, and vaccinated subpopulations of both dogs and humans and describes the spread of rabies among dogs and from infectious dogs to humans. The existence of the disease-free equilibrium is discussed, the basic reproduction number is calculated, and the effect of moving rates of dogs between patches on the basic reproduction number is studied. To investigate the rabies virus clades lineages, the two-patch submodel is used to simulate the human rabies data from Guizhou and Guangxi, Hebei and Fujian, and Sichuan and Shaanxi, respectively. It is found that the basic reproduction number of the two-patch model could be larger than one even if the isolated basic reproduction number of each patch is less than one. This indicates that the immigration of dogs may make the disease endemic even if the disease dies out in each isolated patch when there is no immigration. In order to reduce and prevent geographical spread of rabies in China, our results suggest that the management of dog markets and trades needs to be regulated, and transportation of dogs has to be better monitored and under constant surveillance. PMID:26020234

Three-Dimensional BEM and FEM Submodelling in a Cracked FML Full Scale Aeronautic Panel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Citarella, R.; Cricrì, G.

2014-06-01

This paper concerns the numerical characterization of the fatigue strength of a flat stiffened panel, designed as a fiber metal laminate (FML) and made of Aluminum alloy and Fiber Glass FRP. The panel is full scale and was tested (in a previous work) under fatigue biaxial loads, applied by means of a multi-axial fatigue machine: an initial through the thickness notch was created in the panel and the aforementioned biaxial fatigue load applied, causing a crack initiation and propagation in the Aluminum layers. Moreover, (still in a previous work), the fatigue test was simulated by the Dual Boundary Element Method (DBEM) in a bidimensional approach. Now, in order to validate the assumptions made in the aforementioned DBEM approach and concerning the delamination area size and the fiber integrity during crack propagation, three-dimensional BEM and FEM submodelling analyses are realized. Due to the lack of experimental data on the delamination area size (normally increasing as the crack propagates), such area is calculated by iterative three-dimensional BEM or FEM analyses, considering the inter-laminar stresses and a delamination criterion. Such three-dimensional analyses, but in particular the FEM proposed model, can also provide insights into the fiber rupture problem. These DBEM-BEM or DBEM-FEM approaches aims at providing a general purpose evaluation tool for a better understanding of the fatigue resistance of FML panels, providing a deeper insight into the role of fiber stiffness and of delamination extension on the stress intensity factors.

Modeling the interaction between plant canopies and the planetary boundary layer using a new 1D multi-layer soil- vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) scheme combined with a non-local turbulence closure model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yetzer, Kenneth H.

A new one-dimensional (1D) soil-vegetation-atmospheric transport (SVAT) scheme is coupled to a nonlocal turbulence closure model in order to simulate the interactions between a forested canopy and the planetary boundary layer. The SVAT consists of mechanistic models for both physiological (photosynthesis, stomatal conductance and soil/root and bole respiration) and micrometeorological (radiative transfer and surface energy exchanges) processes. The turbulence closure model is a first-order, nonlocal turbulence closure called transilient turbulence theory (Stull, 1993; Inclan et al., 1995) which includes the effects of form drag, wake turbulence, and interference to vertical mixing by the plant elements. The submodel that accounts for radiative transfer inside the forest has been taken from Norman (1979) and Baldocchi (1989). It includes the effect of varying mean leaf inclination angle with height and it also accounts for leaf clumping The photosynthesis submodel is taken from Nikolov and others (1995). It accounts for both differences between shaded and sunlit leaves and the variation of photosynthetic capacity with height. The model was tested with data obtained from a deciduous forest in Pennsylvania. The results show reasonable agreement with the observations. They also demonstrate the model's ability to simulate phenomena that is characteristic of tall canopies like forests, including counter gradient-fluxes and local wind speed maxima in the trunk space.

A new approach to hierarchical data analysis: Targeted maximum likelihood estimation for the causal effect of a cluster-level exposure.

PubMed

Balzer, Laura B; Zheng, Wenjing; van der Laan, Mark J; Petersen, Maya L

2018-01-01

We often seek to estimate the impact of an exposure naturally occurring or randomly assigned at the cluster-level. For example, the literature on neighborhood determinants of health continues to grow. Likewise, community randomized trials are applied to learn about real-world implementation, sustainability, and population effects of interventions with proven individual-level efficacy. In these settings, individual-level outcomes are correlated due to shared cluster-level factors, including the exposure, as well as social or biological interactions between individuals. To flexibly and efficiently estimate the effect of a cluster-level exposure, we present two targeted maximum likelihood estimators (TMLEs). The first TMLE is developed under a non-parametric causal model, which allows for arbitrary interactions between individuals within a cluster. These interactions include direct transmission of the outcome (i.e. contagion) and influence of one individual's covariates on another's outcome (i.e. covariate interference). The second TMLE is developed under a causal sub-model assuming the cluster-level and individual-specific covariates are sufficient to control for confounding. Simulations compare the alternative estimators and illustrate the potential gains from pairing individual-level risk factors and outcomes during estimation, while avoiding unwarranted assumptions. Our results suggest that estimation under the sub-model can result in bias and misleading inference in an observational setting. Incorporating working assumptions during estimation is more robust than assuming they hold in the underlying causal model. We illustrate our approach with an application to HIV prevention and treatment.

One-Dimensional Transport with Equilibrium Chemistry (OTEQ) - A Reactive Transport Model for Streams and Rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runkel, Robert L.

2010-01-01

OTEQ is a mathematical simulation model used to characterize the fate and transport of waterborne solutes in streams and rivers. The model is formed by coupling a solute transport model with a chemical equilibrium submodel. The solute transport model is based on OTIS, a model that considers the physical processes of advection, dispersion, lateral inflow, and transient storage. The equilibrium submodel is based on MINTEQ, a model that considers the speciation and complexation of aqueous species, acid-base reactions, precipitation/dissolution, and sorption. Within OTEQ, reactions in the water column may result in the formation of solid phases (precipitates and sorbed species) that are subject to downstream transport and settling processes. Solid phases on the streambed may also interact with the water column through dissolution and sorption/desorption reactions. Consideration of both mobile (waterborne) and immobile (streambed) solid phases requires a unique set of governing differential equations and solution techniques that are developed herein. The partial differential equations describing physical transport and the algebraic equations describing chemical equilibria are coupled using the sequential iteration approach. The model's ability to simulate pH, precipitation/dissolution, and pH-dependent sorption provides a means of evaluating the complex interactions between instream chemistry and hydrologic transport at the field scale. This report details the development and application of OTEQ. Sections of the report describe model theory, input/output specifications, model applications, and installation instructions. OTEQ may be obtained over the Internet at http://water.usgs.gov/software/OTEQ.

Modeling Sustainability: Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Motesharrei, Safa; Rivas, Jorge; Kalnay, Eugenia

Over the last two centuries, the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically, becoming strongly dominant within the Earth System in many different ways. Consumption, inequality, and population have increased extremely fast, especially since about 1950, threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions and ecosystems of the Earth System. Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have important feedback effects on the Human System, with costly and potentially serious consequences. However, current models do not incorporate these critical feedbacks. Here, we argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system, Earth System Models must be coupled withmore » Human System Models through bidirectional couplings representing the positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems. In particular, key Human System variables, such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are not coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates, such as United Nations population projections.This makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth–Human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes, and thus requiring different policy interventions from current models. Lastly, the importance and imminence of sustainability challenges, the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System, and the essential roles the Earth System plays for the Human System, all call for collaboration of natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth–Human system models for devising effective science-based policies and measures to benefit current and future generations.« less

Modeling Sustainability: Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Motesharrei, Safa; Rivas, Jorge; Kalnay, Eugenia

Over the last two centuries, the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically, becoming strongly dominant within the Earth System in many different ways. Consumption, inequality, and population have increased extremely fast, especially since about 1950, threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions and ecosystems of the Earth System. Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have important feedback effects on the Human System, with costly and potentially serious consequences. However, current models do not incorporate these critical feedbacks. We argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system, Earth System Models must be coupled with Humanmore » System Models through bidirectional couplings representing the positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems. In particular, key Human System variables, such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are not coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates, such as United Nations population projections. This makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth–Human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes, and thus requiring different policy interventions from current models. The importance and imminence of sustainability challenges, the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System, and the essential roles the Earth System plays for the Human System, all call for collaboration of natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth–Human system models for devising effective science-based policies and measures to benefit current and future generations.« less

Modeling Sustainability: Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems

DOE PAGES

Motesharrei, Safa; Rivas, Jorge; Kalnay, Eugenia; ...

2016-12-11

Over the last two centuries, the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically, becoming strongly dominant within the Earth System in many different ways. Consumption, inequality, and population have increased extremely fast, especially since about 1950, threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions and ecosystems of the Earth System. Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have important feedback effects on the Human System, with costly and potentially serious consequences. However, current models do not incorporate these critical feedbacks. Here, we argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system, Earth System Models must be coupled withmore » Human System Models through bidirectional couplings representing the positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems. In particular, key Human System variables, such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are not coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates, such as United Nations population projections.This makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth–Human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes, and thus requiring different policy interventions from current models. Lastly, the importance and imminence of sustainability challenges, the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System, and the essential roles the Earth System plays for the Human System, all call for collaboration of natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth–Human system models for devising effective science-based policies and measures to benefit current and future generations.« less

The Emergence of Land Use as a Global Force in the Earth System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, E. C.

2015-12-01

Human societies have emerged as a global force capable of transforming the biosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, atmosphere and climate. As a result, the long-term dynamics of the Earth system can no longer be understood or predicted without understanding their coupling with human societal dynamics. Here, a general causal theory is presented to explain why behaviorally modern humans, unlike any prior multicellular species, gained this unprecedented capacity to reshape the Earth system and how this societal capacity has changed from the Pleistocene to the present and future. Sociocultural niche construction theory, building on existing theories of ecosystem engineering, niche construction, the extended evolutionary synthesis, cultural evolution, ultrasociality and social change, can explain both the long-term upscaling of human societies and their unprecedented capacity to transform the Earth system. Regime shifts in human sociocultural niche construction, from the clearing of land using fire, to shifting cultivation, to intensive agriculture, to global food systems dependent on fossil fuel combustion, have enabled human societies to scale up while gaining the capacity to reshape the global patterns and processes of biogeography, ecosystems, landscapes, biomes, the biosphere, and ultimately the functioning of the Earth system. Just as Earth's geophysical climate system shapes the long-term dynamics of energy and material flow across the "spheres" of the Earth system, human societies, interacting at global scale to form "human systems", are increasingly shaping the global dynamics of energy, material, biotic and information flow across the spheres of the Earth system, including a newly emerged anthroposphere comprised of human societies and their material cultures. Human systems and the anthroposphere are strongly coupled with climate and other Earth systems and are dynamic in response to evolutionary changes in human social organization, cooperative ecosystem engineering, non-kin exchange relationships, and energy systems. It is hoped that intentional societal efforts to alter the dynamics of human systems can ultimately move Earth systems towards more beneficial and less detrimental outcomes for both human societies and nonhuman species.

Servicing and Deployment of National Resources in Sun-Earth Libration Point Orbits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Folta, David C.; Beckman, Mark; Mar, Greg C.; Mesarch, Michael; Cooley, Steven; Leete, Steven J.

2002-01-01

Spacecraft travel between the Sun-Earth system, the Earth-Moon system, and beyond has received extensive attention recently. The existence of a connection between unstable regions enables mission designers to envision scenarios of multiple spacecraft traveling cheaply from system to system, rendezvousing, servicing, and refueling along the way. This paper presents examples of transfers between the Sun-Earth and Earth-Moon systems using a true ephemeris and perturbation model. It shows the (Delta)V costs associated with these transfers, including the costs to reach the staging region from the Earth. It explores both impulsive and low thrust transfer trajectories. Additionally, analysis that looks specifically at the use of nuclear power in libration point orbits and the issues associated with them such as inadvertent Earth return is addressed. Statistical analysis of Earth returns and the design of biased orbits to prevent any possible return are discussed. Lastly, the idea of rendezvous between spacecraft in libration point orbits using impulsive maneuvers is addressed.

ACCESS Earth: Promoting Accessibility to Earth System Science for Students with Disabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Locke, S. M.; Cohen, L.; Lightbody, N.

2001-05-01

ACCESS Earth is an intensive summer institute for high school students with disabilities and their teachers that is designed to encourage students with disabilities to consider careers in earth system science. Participants study earth system science concepts at a Maine coastal estuary, using Geographic Information Systems, remote sensing, and field observations to evaluate the impacts of climate change, sea level rise, and development on coastal systems. Teachers, students, and scientists work together to adapt field and laboratory activities for persons with disabilities, including those with mobility and visual impairments. Other sessions include demonstrations of assistive technology, career discussions, and opportunities for students to meet with successful scientists with disabilities from throughout the U.S. The summer institute is one of several programs in development at the University of Southern Maine to address the problem of underrepresentation of people with disabilities in the earth sciences. Other projects include a mentoring program for high school students, a web-based clearinghouse of resources for teaching earth sciences to students with disabilities, and guidebooks for adaptation of popular published earth system science curricula for disabled learners.

Modeling the Earth system in the Mission to Planet Earth era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Unninayar, Sushel; Bergman, Kenneth H.

1993-01-01

A broad overview is made of global earth system modeling in the Mission to Planet Earth (MTPE) era for the multidisciplinary audience encompassed by the Global Change Research Program (GCRP). Time scales of global system fluctuation and change are described in Section 2. Section 3 provides a rubric for modeling the global earth system, as presently understood. The ability of models to predict the future state of the global earth system and the extent to which their predictions are reliable are covered in Sections 4 and 5. The 'engineering' use of global system models (and predictions) is covered in Section 6. Section 7 covers aspects of an increasing need for improved transform algorithms and better methods to assimilate this information into global models. Future monitoring and data requirements are detailed in Section 8. Section 9 covers the NASA-initiated concept 'Mission to Planet Earth,' which employs space and ground based measurement systems to provide the scientific basis for understanding global change. Section 10 concludes this review with general remarks concerning the state of global system modeling and observing technology and the need for future research.

Multi-Element Unstructured Analyses of Complex Valve Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sulyma, Peter (Technical Monitor); Ahuja, Vineet; Hosangadi, Ashvin; Shipman, Jeremy

2004-01-01

The safe and reliable operation of high pressure test stands for rocket engine and component testing places an increased emphasis on the performance of control valves and flow metering devices. In this paper, we will present a series of high fidelity computational analyses of systems ranging from cryogenic control valves and pressure regulator systems to cavitating venturis that are used to support rocket engine and component testing at NASA Stennis Space Center. A generalized multi-element framework with sub-models for grid adaption, grid movement and multi-phase flow dynamics has been used to carry out the simulations. Such a framework provides the flexibility of resolving the structural and functional complexities that are typically associated with valve-based high pressure feed systems and have been difficult to deal with traditional CFD methods. Our simulations revealed a rich variety of flow phenomena such as secondary flow patterns, hydrodynamic instabilities, fluctuating vapor pockets etc. In the paper, we will discuss performance losses related to cryogenic control valves, and provide insight into the physics of the dominant multi-phase fluid transport phenomena that are responsible for the choking like behavior in cryogenic control elements. Additionally, we will provide detailed analyses of the modal instability that is observed in the operation of the dome pressure regulator valve. Such instabilities are usually not localized and manifest themselves as a system wide phenomena leading to an undesirable chatter at high flow conditions.

Non-rocket Earth-Moon transport system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolonkin, Alexander

2003-06-01

This paper proposes a new transportation system for travel between Earth and Moon. This transportation system uses mechanical energy transfer and requires only minimal energy, using an engine located on Earth. A cable directly connects a pole of the Earth through a drive station to the lunar surface_ The equation for an optimal equal stress cable for complex gravitational field of Earth-Moon has been derived that allows significantly lower cable masses. The required strength could be provided by cables constructed of carbon nanotubes or carbon whiskers. Some of the constraints on such a system are discussed.

Non-equilibrium thermodynamics, maximum entropy production and Earth-system evolution.

PubMed

Kleidon, Axel

2010-01-13

The present-day atmosphere is in a unique state far from thermodynamic equilibrium. This uniqueness is for instance reflected in the high concentration of molecular oxygen and the low relative humidity in the atmosphere. Given that the concentration of atmospheric oxygen has likely increased throughout Earth-system history, we can ask whether this trend can be generalized to a trend of Earth-system evolution that is directed away from thermodynamic equilibrium, why we would expect such a trend to take place and what it would imply for Earth-system evolution as a whole. The justification for such a trend could be found in the proposed general principle of maximum entropy production (MEP), which states that non-equilibrium thermodynamic systems maintain steady states at which entropy production is maximized. Here, I justify and demonstrate this application of MEP to the Earth at the planetary scale. I first describe the non-equilibrium thermodynamic nature of Earth-system processes and distinguish processes that drive the system's state away from equilibrium from those that are directed towards equilibrium. I formulate the interactions among these processes from a thermodynamic perspective and then connect them to a holistic view of the planetary thermodynamic state of the Earth system. In conclusion, non-equilibrium thermodynamics and MEP have the potential to provide a simple and holistic theory of Earth-system functioning. This theory can be used to derive overall evolutionary trends of the Earth's past, identify the role that life plays in driving thermodynamic states far from equilibrium, identify habitability in other planetary environments and evaluate human impacts on Earth-system functioning. This journal is © 2010 The Royal Society

From pattern to process: The strategy of the Earth Observing System: Volume 2: EOS Science Steering Committee report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1987-01-01

The Earth Observing System (EOS) represents a new approach to the study of the Earth. It consists of remotely sensed and correlative in situ observations designed to address important, interrelated global-scale processes. There is an urgent need to study the Earth as a complete, integrated system in order to understand and predict changes caused by human activities and natural processes. The EOS approach is based on an information system concept and designed to provide a long-term study of the Earth using a variety of measurement methods from both operational and research satellite payloads and continuing ground-based Earth science studies. The EOS concept builds on the foundation of the earlier, single-discipline space missions designed for relatively short observation periods. Continued progress in our understanding of the Earth as a system will come from EOS observations spanning several decades using a variety of contemporaneous measurements.

47 CFR 25.103 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

...) Communication-satellite earth station complex. The term communication-satellite earth station complex includes transmitters, receivers, and communications antennas at the earth station site together with the... communication to terrestrial distribution system(s). (e) Communication-satellite earth station complex functions...

47 CFR 25.103 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...) Communication-satellite earth station complex. The term communication-satellite earth station complex includes transmitters, receivers, and communications antennas at the earth station site together with the... communication to terrestrial distribution system(s). (e) Communication-satellite earth station complex functions...

Modification of the vertically generalized production model for the turbid waters of Ariake Bay, southwestern Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tripathy, S. C.; Ishizaka, J.; Siswanto, E.; Shibata, T.; Mino, Y.

2012-01-01

The vertically generalized production model (VGPM), which was designed for open ocean waters ( Behrenfeld and Falkowski, 1997a; henceforth BF), was evaluated using in situ measurements of primary productivity (PP) in the characteristically turbid coastal waters of Ariake Bay, southwestern Japan, to develop a regionally modified version of the model. The euphotic depth ( Z eu)-integrated PP (IPP) calculated from the VGPM using in situ chlorophyll a (Chl a) and sea surface temperature (SST) was significantly overestimated (by factors of 2-3), but 52% of the observed variability was explained. The weak correlation could have partially resulted from overestimations by the sub-models embedded in the original VGPM model for estimation of Z eu ( Morel and Berthon, 1989; henceforth MB) and the optimal Chl a-normalized PP ( poptB). The sub-model estimates of poptB and Z eu with in situpoptB and Z eu showed significant improvement, accounting for 84% of the variability and causing less overestimation. Z eu was the most important parameter influencing the modeled IPP variation in Ariake Bay. Previous research suggested that the Z eu model, which was based on surface Chl a, overestimated in situ Z eu by a factor of 2-3, resulting in weak correlation between the modeled and in situ IPP. The Z eu sub-model was not accurate in the present study area because it was basically developed for clear (case 1) waters. A better estimation of Z eu could be obtained from the in situ remote sensing reflectance ( R rs) using a quasi-analytical algorithm (QAA) in this turbid water ecosystem. Among the parameters of PP models, poptB is conventionally considered the most important. However, in this study poptB was of secondary importance because the contribution of poptB to the variation in modeled IPP was less than the contribution of Z eu. The modeled and in situpoptB were weakly correlated with 50% of the data points that overestimated the in situ values. The estimation of Chl a was improved by optimizing the Chl a algorithm with in situ R rs data. Incorporating the QAA-based Z eu and the optimized Chl a and constant (median) poptB value led to improved performance of the VGPM for the study area. Thus, even though the VGPM is a global open ocean model, when coupled with turbid water algorithms for Z eu and Chl a and constant (median) poptB, it provided realistic estimates of IPP in the turbid water ecosystem of Ariake Bay.

Stochastic Multi-Timescale Power System Operations With Variable Wind Generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Hongyu; Krad, Ibrahim; Florita, Anthony

This paper describes a novel set of stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch models that consider stochastic loads and variable generation at multiple operational timescales. The stochastic model includes four distinct stages: stochastic day-ahead security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC), stochastic real-time SCUC, stochastic real-time security-constrained economic dispatch (SCED), and deterministic automatic generation control (AGC). These sub-models are integrated together such that they are continually updated with decisions passed from one to another. The progressive hedging algorithm (PHA) is applied to solve the stochastic models to maintain the computational tractability of the proposed models. Comparative case studies with deterministic approaches are conductedmore » in low wind and high wind penetration scenarios to highlight the advantages of the proposed methodology, one with perfect forecasts and the other with current state-of-the-art but imperfect deterministic forecasts. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated with sensitivity tests using both economic and reliability metrics to provide a broader view of its impact.« less

Air source integrated heat pump simulation model for EnergyPlus

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shen, Bo; New, Joshua; Baxter, Van

An Air Source Integrated Heat Pump (AS-IHP) is an air source, multi-functional spacing conditioning unit with water heating function (WH), which can lead to great energy savings by recovering the condensing waste heat for domestic water heating. This paper summarizes development of the EnergyPlus AS-IHP model, introducing the physics, sub-models, working modes, and control logic. Based on the model, building energy simulations were conducted to demonstrate greater than 50% annual energy savings, in comparison to a baseline heat pump with electric water heater, over 10 US cities, using the EnergyPlus quick-service restaurant template building. We assessed water heating energy savingmore » potentials using AS-IHP versus both gas and electric baseline systems, and pointed out climate zones where AS-IHPs are promising. In addition, a grid integration strategy was investigated to reveal further energy saving and electricity cost reduction potentials, via increasing the water heating set point temperature during off-peak hours and using larger water tanks.« less

Development of Semantic Description for Multiscale Models of Thermo-Mechanical Treatment of Metal Alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macioł, Piotr; Regulski, Krzysztof

2016-08-01

We present a process of semantic meta-model development for data management in an adaptable multiscale modeling framework. The main problems in ontology design are discussed, and a solution achieved as a result of the research is presented. The main concepts concerning the application and data management background for multiscale modeling were derived from the AM3 approach—object-oriented Agile multiscale modeling methodology. The ontological description of multiscale models enables validation of semantic correctness of data interchange between submodels. We also present a possibility of using the ontological model as a supervisor in conjunction with a multiscale model controller and a knowledge base system. Multiscale modeling formal ontology (MMFO), designed for describing multiscale models' data and structures, is presented. A need for applying meta-ontology in the MMFO development process is discussed. Examples of MMFO application in describing thermo-mechanical treatment of metal alloys are discussed. Present and future applications of MMFO are described.

Water quantity and quality model for the evaluation of water-management strategies in the Netherlands: application to the province of Friesland

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brinkman, J.J.; Griffioen, P.S.; Groot, S.

1987-03-01

The Netherlands have a rather complex water-management system consisting of a number of major rivers, canals, lakes and ditches. Water-quantity management on a regional scale is necessary for an effective water-quality policy. To support water management, a computer model was developed that includes both water quality and water quantity, based on three submodels: ABOPOL for the water movement, DELWAQ for the calculation of water quality variables and BLOOM-II for the phytoplankton growth. The northern province of Friesland was chosen as a test case for the integrated model to be developed, where water quality is highly related to the water distributionmore » and the main trade-off is minimizing the intake of (eutrophicated) alien water in order to minimize external nutrient load and maximizing the intake in order to flush channels and lakes. The results of the application of these models to this and to a number of hypothetical future situations are described.« less

Continuity-based model interfacing for plant-wide simulation: a general approach.

PubMed

Volcke, Eveline I P; van Loosdrecht, Mark C M; Vanrolleghem, Peter A

2006-08-01

In plant-wide simulation studies of wastewater treatment facilities, often existing models from different origin need to be coupled. However, as these submodels are likely to contain different state variables, their coupling is not straightforward. The continuity-based interfacing method (CBIM) provides a general framework to construct model interfaces for models of wastewater systems, taking into account conservation principles. In this contribution, the CBIM approach is applied to study the effect of sludge digestion reject water treatment with a SHARON-Anammox process on a plant-wide scale. Separate models were available for the SHARON process and for the Anammox process. The Benchmark simulation model no. 2 (BSM2) is used to simulate the behaviour of the complete WWTP including sludge digestion. The CBIM approach is followed to develop three different model interfaces. At the same time, the generally applicable CBIM approach was further refined and particular issues when coupling models in which pH is considered as a state variable, are pointed out.

Using "big data" to optimally model hydrology and water quality across expansive regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roehl, E.A.; Cook, J.B.; Conrads, P.A.

2009-01-01

This paper describes a new divide and conquer approach that leverages big environmental data, utilizing all available categorical and time-series data without subjectivity, to empirically model hydrologic and water-quality behaviors across expansive regions. The approach decomposes large, intractable problems into smaller ones that are optimally solved; decomposes complex signals into behavioral components that are easier to model with "sub- models"; and employs a sequence of numerically optimizing algorithms that include time-series clustering, nonlinear, multivariate sensitivity analysis and predictive modeling using multi-layer perceptron artificial neural networks, and classification for selecting the best sub-models to make predictions at new sites. This approach has many advantages over traditional modeling approaches, including being faster and less expensive, more comprehensive in its use of available data, and more accurate in representing a system's physical processes. This paper describes the application of the approach to model groundwater levels in Florida, stream temperatures across Western Oregon and Wisconsin, and water depths in the Florida Everglades. ?? 2009 ASCE.

Teaching and Learning about the Earth. ERIC Digest.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Hyonyong

This ERIC Digest investigates the earth and space science guidelines of the National Science Education Standards. These guidelines are frequently referred to as the earth system and include components such as plate tectonics, the water cycle, and the carbon cycle. This Digest describes the development of earth systems science and earth systems…

Relativistic time transfer in the vicinity of the Earth and in the solar system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, Robert A.

2011-08-01

The algorithms for relativistic time transfer in the vicinity of the Earth and in the solar system are derived. The concepts of proper time and coordinate time are distinguished. The coordinate time elapsed during the transport of a clock and the propagation of an electromagnetic signal is analysed in three coordinate systems: an Earth-Centred Inertial (ECI) coordinate system, an Earth-Centred Earth-Fixed (ECEF) coordinate system and a barycentric coordinate system. The timescales of Geocentric Coordinate Time (TCG), Terrestrial Time (TT) and Barycentric Coordinate Time (TCB) are defined and their relationships are discussed. Some numerical examples are provided to illustrate the magnitudes of the effects.

The Group on Earth Observations and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achache, J.

2006-05-01

The Group on Earth Observations (GEO) is leading a worldwide effort to build a Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) over the next 10 years. The GEOSS vision, articulated in its 10-Year Implementation Plan, represents the consolidation of a global scientific and political consensus: the assessment of the state of the Earth requires continuous and coordinated observation of our planet at all scales. GEOSS aims to achieve comprehensive, coordinated and sustained observations of the Earth system in order to improve monitoring of the state of the Earth; increase understanding of Earth processes; and enhance prediction of the behaviour of the Earth system. After the World Summit on Sustainable Development in 2002 highlighted the urgent need for coordinated observations relating to the state of the Earth, GEO was established at the Third Earth Observation Summit in February 2005 and the GEOSS 10-Year Implementation Plan was endorsed. GEO currently involves 60 countries; the European Commission; and 43 international organizations and has begun implementation of the GEOSS 10-Year Implementation Plan. GEO programme activities cover nine societal benefit areas (Disasters; Health; Energy; Climate; Water; Weather; Ecosystems; Agriculture; Biodiversity) and five transverse or crosscutting elements (User Engagement; Architecture; Data Management; Capacity Building; Outreach). All these activities have as their final goal the establishment of the "system of systems" which will yield a broad range of basic societal benefits, including the reduction of loss of life and property from tsunamis, hurricanes, and other natural disasters; improved water resource and energy management; and improved understanding of environmental factors significant to public health. As a "system of systems", GEOSS will work with and build upon existing national, regional, and international systems to provide comprehensive, coordinated Earth observations from thousands of instruments worldwide, transforming the data they collect into vital information for society. The GEO Secretariat was established in Geneva in May 2005 to facilitate and support GEO activities, and the first Director, José Achache, assumed leadership in September 2005. It is the centre of international coordination for the GEOSS effort.

Earth Systems Science: An Analytic Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finley, Fred N.; Nam, Younkeyong; Oughton, John

2011-01-01

Earth Systems Science (ESS) is emerging rapidly as a discipline and is being used to replace the older earth science education that has been taught as unrelated disciplines--geology, meteorology, astronomy, and oceanography. ESS is complex and is based on the idea that the earth can be understood as a set of interacting natural and social systems.…

HMMR (High-Resolution Multifrequency Microwave Radiometer) Earth observing system, volume 2e. Instrument panel report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1987-01-01

Recommendations and background are provided for a passive microwave remote sensing system of the future designed to meet the observational needs of Earth scientist in the next decade. This system, called the High Resolution Multifrequency Microwave Radiometer (HMMR), is to be part of a complement of instruments in polar orbit. Working together, these instruments will form an Earth Observing System (EOS) to provide the information needed to better understand the fundamental, global scale processes which govern the Earth's environment. Measurements are identified in detail which passive observations in the microwave portion of the spectrum could contribute to an Earth Observing System in polar orbit. Requirements are established, e.g., spatial and temporal resolution, for these measurements so that, when combined with the other instruments in the Earth Observing System, they would yield a data set suitable for understanding the fundamental processes governing the Earth's environment. Existing and/or planned sensor systems are assessed in the light of these requirements, and additional sensor hardware needed to meet these observational requirements are defined.

Monte Carlo simulations for generic granite repository studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chu, Shaoping; Lee, Joon H; Wang, Yifeng

In a collaborative study between Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) for the DOE-NE Office of Fuel Cycle Technologies Used Fuel Disposition (UFD) Campaign project, we have conducted preliminary system-level analyses to support the development of a long-term strategy for geologic disposal of high-level radioactive waste. A general modeling framework consisting of a near- and a far-field submodel for a granite GDSE was developed. A representative far-field transport model for a generic granite repository was merged with an integrated systems (GoldSim) near-field model. Integrated Monte Carlo model runs with the combined near- and farfield transport modelsmore » were performed, and the parameter sensitivities were evaluated for the combined system. In addition, a sub-set of radionuclides that are potentially important to repository performance were identified and evaluated for a series of model runs. The analyses were conducted with different waste inventory scenarios. Analyses were also conducted for different repository radionuelide release scenarios. While the results to date are for a generic granite repository, the work establishes the method to be used in the future to provide guidance on the development of strategy for long-term disposal of high-level radioactive waste in a granite repository.« less

Implementation of a reduced order Kalman filter to assimilate ocean color data into a coupled physical-biochemical model of the North Aegean Sea.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalaroni, Sofia; Tsiaras, Kostas; Economou-Amilli, Athena; Petihakis, George; Politikos, Dimitrios; Triantafyllou, George

2013-04-01

Within the framework of the European project OPEC (Operational Ecology), a data assimilation system was implemented to describe chlorophyll-a concentrations of the North Aegean, as well the impact on the European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) biomass distribution provided by a bioenergetics model, related to the density of three low trophic level functional groups of zooplankton (heterotrophic flagellates, microzooplankton and mesozooplankton). The three-dimensional hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model comprises two on-line coupled sub-models: the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) and the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM). The assimilation scheme is based on the Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman (SEEK) filter and its variant that uses a fixed correction base (SFEK). For the initialization, SEEK filter uses a reduced order error covariance matrix provided by the dominant Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) of model. The assimilation experiments were performed for year 2003 using SeaWiFS chlorophyll-a data during which the physical model uses the atmospheric forcing obtained from the regional climate model HIRHAM5. The assimilation system is validated by assessing the relevance of the system in fitting the data, the impact of the assimilation on non-observed biochemical parameters and the overall quality of the forecasts.

Impact of Aircraft Emissions on Air Quality in the Vicinity of Airports. Volume I: Recent Airport Measurement Programs, Data Analyses, and Sub-Model Development

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-07-01

temperature has turbine stacks located in a region of high ambient turbu- - lence [Hoult (1975) and Egan (1975)]. I) I+ 110 4.5.4 Event Modeling Several...the aircraft industry in developing the gas turbine engine technology of the present era. Dispersion measurements permit determination of a power law...The ESEERCO Model for the Prediction of Plume Rise and Dispersion from Gas Turbine Engines. Air Pollution Control Association 68th Annual Meeting

Influence diagnostics for count data under AB-BA crossover trials.

PubMed

Hao, Chengcheng; von Rosen, Dietrich; von Rosen, Tatjana

2017-12-01

This paper aims to develop diagnostic measures to assess the influence of data perturbations on estimates in AB-BA crossover studies with a Poisson distributed response. Generalised mixed linear models with normally distributed random effects are utilised. We show that in this special case, the model can be decomposed into two independent sub-models which allow to derive closed-form expressions to evaluate the changes in the maximum likelihood estimates under several perturbation schemes. The performance of the new influence measures is illustrated by simulation studies and the analysis of a real dataset.

Derivation of an applied nonlinear Schroedinger equation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pitts, Todd Alan; Laine, Mark Richard; Schwarz, Jens

We derive from first principles a mathematical physics model useful for understanding nonlinear optical propagation (including filamentation). All assumptions necessary for the development are clearly explained. We include the Kerr effect, Raman scattering, and ionization (as well as linear and nonlinear shock, diffraction and dispersion). We explain the phenomenological sub-models and each assumption required to arrive at a complete and consistent theoretical description. The development includes the relationship between shock and ionization and demonstrates why inclusion of Drude model impedance effects alters the nature of the shock operator. Unclassified Unlimited Release

14 CFR 420.71 - Lightning protection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... path connecting an air terminal to an earth electrode system. (iii) Earth electrode system. An earth... to the initiation of explosives by lightning. (1) Elements of a lighting protection system. Unless an... facilities shall have a lightning protection system to ensure explosives are not initiated by lightning. A...

14 CFR 420.71 - Lightning protection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... path connecting an air terminal to an earth electrode system. (iii) Earth electrode system. An earth... to the initiation of explosives by lightning. (1) Elements of a lighting protection system. Unless an... facilities shall have a lightning protection system to ensure explosives are not initiated by lightning. A...

14 CFR 420.71 - Lightning protection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... path connecting an air terminal to an earth electrode system. (iii) Earth electrode system. An earth... to the initiation of explosives by lightning. (1) Elements of a lighting protection system. Unless an... facilities shall have a lightning protection system to ensure explosives are not initiated by lightning. A...

14 CFR 420.71 - Lightning protection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... path connecting an air terminal to an earth electrode system. (iii) Earth electrode system. An earth... to the initiation of explosives by lightning. (1) Elements of a lighting protection system. Unless an... facilities shall have a lightning protection system to ensure explosives are not initiated by lightning. A...

Simulating effects of highway embankments on estuarine circulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Jonathan K.; Schaffranek, Raymond W.; Baltzer, Robert A.

1994-01-01

A two-dimensional depth-averaged, finite-difference, numerical model was used to simulate tidal circulation and mass transport in the Port Royal Sound. South Carolina, estuarine system. The purpose of the study was to demonstrate the utility of the Surface-Water. Integrated. Flow and Transport model (SWIFT2D) for evaluating changes in circulation patterns and mass transport caused by highway-crossing embankments. A model of subregion of Port Royal Sound including the highway crossings and having a grid size of 61 m (200ft) was derived from a 183-m (600-ft) model of the entire Port Royal Sound estuarine system. The 183-m model was used to compute boundary-value data for the 61-m submodel, which was then used to simulate flow conditions with and without the highway embankments in place. The numerical simulations show that, with the highway embankment in place, mass transport between the Broad River and Battery Creek is reduced and mass transport between the Beaufort River and Battery Creek is increased. The net result is that mass transport into and out of upper Battery Creek is reduced. The presence of the embankments also alters circulation patterns within Battery Creek.

The Geolocation model for lunar-based Earth observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Yixing; Liu, Guang; Ren, Yuanzhen; Ye, Hanlin; Guo, Huadong; Lv, Mingyang

2016-07-01

In recent years, people are more and more aware of that the earth need to treated as an entirety, and consequently to be observed in a holistic, systematic and multi-scale view. However, the interaction mechanism between the Earth's inner layers and outer layers is still unclear. Therefore, we propose to observe the Earth's inner layers and outer layers instantaneously on the Moon which may be helpful to the studies in climatology, meteorology, seismology, etc. At present, the Moon has been proved to be an irreplaceable platform for Earth's outer layers observation. Meanwhile, some discussions have been made in lunar-based observation of the Earth's inner layers, but the geolocation model of lunar-based observation has not been specified yet. In this paper, we present a geolocation model based on transformation matrix. The model includes six coordinate systems: The telescope coordinate system, the lunar local coordinate system, the lunar-reference coordinate system, the selenocentric inertial coordinate system, the geocentric inertial coordinate system and the geo-reference coordinate system. The parameters, lncluding the position of the Sun, the Earth, the Moon, the libration and the attitude of the Earth, can be acquired from the Ephemeris. By giving an elevation angle and an azimuth angle of the lunar-based telescope, this model links the image pixel to the ground point uniquely.

Internal Tide Generation by Tall Ocean Ridges

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

Earth - sun and the Earth -moon orbits . As the earth and the moon rotate, so does the alignment of the tidal forces, such...tidal periods. It has since become recognized that internal tides are part of important global energy systems: the orbits of the moon around the Earth ...and the Earth around the sun , and the energy budget of the ocean. For instance, the energy in the moon- Earth system is decreasing, such that every

NASA's Earth Science Data Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramapriyan, H. K.

2015-01-01

NASA's Earth Science Data Systems (ESDS) Program has evolved over the last two decades, and currently has several core and community components. Core components provide the basic operational capabilities to process, archive, manage and distribute data from NASA missions. Community components provide a path for peer-reviewed research in Earth Science Informatics to feed into the evolution of the core components. The Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) is a core component consisting of twelve Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs) and eight Science Investigator-led Processing Systems spread across the U.S. The presentation covers how the ESDS Program continues to evolve and benefits from as well as contributes to advances in Earth Science Informatics.

Observation and integrated Earth-system science: A roadmap for 2016-2025

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simmons, Adrian; Fellous, Jean-Louis; Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam; Trenberth, Kevin; Asrar, Ghassem; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Burrows, John P.; Ciais, Philippe; Drinkwater, Mark; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gobron, Nadine; Guilyardi, Eric; Halpern, David; Heimann, Martin; Johannessen, Johnny; Levelt, Pieternel F.; Lopez-Baeza, Ernesto; Penner, Joyce; Scholes, Robert; Shepherd, Ted

2016-05-01

This report is the response to a request by the Committee on Space Research of the International Council for Science to prepare a roadmap on observation and integrated Earth-system science for the coming ten years. Its focus is on the combined use of observations and modelling to address the functioning, predictability and projected evolution of interacting components of the Earth system on timescales out to a century or so. It discusses how observations support integrated Earth-system science and its applications, and identifies planned enhancements to the contributing observing systems and other requirements for observations and their processing. All types of observation are considered, but emphasis is placed on those made from space. The origins and development of the integrated view of the Earth system are outlined, noting the interactions between the main components that lead to requirements for integrated science and modelling, and for the observations that guide and support them. What constitutes an Earth-system model is discussed. Summaries are given of key cycles within the Earth system. The nature of Earth observation and the arrangements for international coordination essential for effective operation of global observing systems are introduced. Instances are given of present types of observation, what is already on the roadmap for 2016-2025 and some of the issues to be faced. Observations that are organised on a systematic basis and observations that are made for process understanding and model development, or other research or demonstration purposes, are covered. Specific accounts are given for many of the variables of the Earth system. The current status and prospects for Earth-system modelling are summarized. The evolution towards applying Earth-system models for environmental monitoring and prediction as well as for climate simulation and projection is outlined. General aspects of the improvement of models, whether through refining the representations of processes that are already incorporated or through adding new processes or components, are discussed. Some important elements of Earth-system models are considered more fully. Data assimilation is discussed not only because it uses observations and models to generate datasets for monitoring the Earth system and for initiating and evaluating predictions, in particular through reanalysis, but also because of the feedback it provides on the quality of both the observations and the models employed. Inverse methods for surface-flux or model-parameter estimation are also covered. Reviews are given of the way observations and the processed datasets based on them are used for evaluating models, and of the combined use of observations and models for monitoring and interpreting the behaviour of the Earth system and for predicting and projecting its future. A set of concluding discussions covers general developmental needs, requirements for continuity of space-based observing systems, further long-term requirements for observations and other data, technological advances and data challenges, and the importance of enhanced international co-operation.

Observation and integrated Earth-system science: A roadmap for 2016–2025

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simmons, Adrian; Fellous, Jean-Louis; Ramaswamy, V.

This report is the response to a request by the Committee on Space Research of the International Council for Science to prepare a roadmap on observation and integrated Earth-system science for the coming ten years. Its focus is on the combined use of observations and modelling to address the functioning, predictability and projected evolution of interacting components of the Earth system on timescales out to a century or so. It discusses how observations support integrated Earth-system science and its applications, and identifies planned enhancements to the contributing observing systems and other requirements for observations and their processing. All types ofmore » observation are considered, but emphasis is placed on those made from space. The origins and development of the integrated view of the Earth system are outlined, noting the interactions between the main components that lead to requirements for integrated science and modelling, and for the observations that guide and support them. What constitutes an Earth-system model is discussed. Summaries are given of key cycles within the Earth system. The nature of Earth observation and the arrangements for international coordination essential for effective operation of global observing systems are introduced. Instances are given of present types of observation, what is already on the roadmap for 2016–2025 and some of the issues to be faced. Observations that are organized on a systematic basis and observations that are made for process understanding and model development, or other research or demonstration purposes, are covered. Specific accounts are given for many of the variables of the Earth system. The current status and prospects for Earth-system modelling are summarized. The evolution towards applying Earth-system models for environmental monitoring and prediction as well as for climate simulation and projection is outlined. General aspects of the improvement of models, whether through refining the representations of processes that are already incorporated or through adding new processes or components, are discussed. Some important elements of Earth-system models are considered more fully. Data assimilation is discussed not only because it uses observations and models to generate datasets for monitoring the Earth system and for initiating and evaluating predictions, in particular through reanalysis, but also because of the feedback it provides on the quality of both the observations and the models employed. Inverse methods for surface-flux or model-parameter estimation are also covered. Reviews are given of the way observations and the processed datasets based on them are used for evaluating models, and of the combined use of observations and models for monitoring and interpreting the behaviour of the Earth system and for predicting and projecting its future. A set of concluding discussions covers general developmental needs, requirements for continuity of space-based observing systems, further long-term requirements for observations and other data, technological advances and data challenges, and the importance of enhanced international co-operation.« less

Challenges to modeling the Sun-Earth System: A Workshop Summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spann, James F.

2006-01-01

This special issue of the Journal of' Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics is a compilation of 23 papers presented at The 2004 Huntsville Modeling Workshop: Challenges to Modeling thc San-Earth System held in Huntsville, AB on October 18-22, 2004. The title of the workshop appropriately captures the theme of what was presented and discussed by the 120 participants. Currently, end-to-end modeling of the Sun-Earth system is a major goal of the National Space Weather and NASA living with a star (LWS) programs. While profound advances have been made in modeling isolated regions of the Sun-Earth system, minimal progress has been achieved in modeling the end-to-end system. The transfer of mass, energy and momentum through the coupled Sun-Earth system spans a wide range of scales inn time and space. The uncertainty in the underlying physics responsible for coupling contiguous regions of the Sun-Earth system is recognized as a significant barrier to progress

NASA's mission to planet Earth: Earth observing system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1993-01-01

The topics covered include the following: global climate change; radiation, clouds, and atmospheric water; the ocean; the troposphere - greenhouse gases; land cover and the water cycle; polar ice sheets and sea level; the stratosphere - ozone chemistry; volcanoes; the Earth Observing System (EOS) - how NASA will support studies of global climate change?; research and assessment - EOS Science Investigations; EOS Data and Information System (EOSDIS); EOS observations - instruments and spacecraft; a national international effort; and understanding the Earth System.

The Dynamical Evolution of the Earth-Moon Progenitors. 1; Motivation and Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lissuer, Jack; Rivera, E.; Duncan, M. J.; Levison, H. F.; DeVincenzi, Donald (Technical Monitor)

1999-01-01

The Giant Impact Hypothesis was introduced in the mid-1970's after consideration of results from the Apollo Moon missions. This hypothesis best explains the similarity in elemental proportions in lunar and terrestrial rocks, the depletion of lunar volatiles, the lack of lunar iron. and the large angular momentum in the Earth-Moon system. Comparison between the radiometric ages of inclusions in the most primitive meteorites and those of inclusions in the oldest lunar rocks and the differentiation age of Earth suggests that the Earth-Moon system formed about 100 Myr after the oldest meteorites. In addition, the age of the famous Martian meteorite ALH84001 and an early solidification time estimated from the Martian crust, suggest that the inner Solar System was fairly clear of large bodies about 10 Myr after the oldest meteorites formed. Thus, the 'standard model' suggests that for a period of several tens of millions of years the terrestrial planet region had few. if any, lunar-sized bodies and there were five terrestrial planets, Mercury, Venus, the two progenitors of the Earth-Moon system, and Mars. To simulate the dynamics of the Solar System before the hypothesized Moon-forming impact, we are integrating the Solar System with the Earth-Moon system replaced by two bodies in heliocentric orbits between Venus and Mars. The total (orbital) angular momentum of the Earth-Moon progenitors is that of the present Earth-Moon system, and their total mass is that of the Earth-Moon system. We are looking at ranges in mass ratio and initial values for eccentricity, inclination. and semi-major axis. We are using the SYMBA integrator to integrate these systems until a collision occurs or a time of 200 Myr elapses. Results are presented in a companion paper.

The Dynamical Evolution of the Earth-Moon Progenitors. 1; Motivation and Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lissauer, J. J.; Rivera, E.; Duncan, M. J.; Levison, H. F.

1998-01-01

The giant impact hypothesis was introduced in the mid-1970s after consideration of results from the Apollo missions. This hypothesis best explains the similarity in elemental proportions in lunar and terrestrial rocks, the depletion of lunar volatiles, the lack of lunar Fe, and the large angular momentum in the Earth-Moon system. Comparison between the radiometric ages of inclusions in the most primitive meteorites and in the oldest lunar rocks and the differentiation age of Earth suggests that the Earth-Moon system formed about100 m.y. after the oldest meteorites. In addition, the age of the famous martian meteorite ALH 84001 and an early Martian solidification time obtained by Lee and Halliday suggest that the inner solar system was fairly clear of large bodies about 10 m.y. after the oldest meteorites formed. Thus, the "standard model" suggests that for several tens of millions of years, the terrestrial planet region had few, if any, lunar-sized bodies, and there were five terrestrial planets: Mercury, Venus, the two progenitors of the Earth-Moon system, and Mars. To simulate the dynamics of the solar system before the hypothesized Moon-forming impact, we are integrating the solar system with the Earth-Moon system replaced by two bodies in heliocentric orbits between Venus and Mars. The total (orbital) angular momentum of the Earth-Moon progenitors is that of the present Earth-Moon system, and their total mass is that of the Earth-Moon System. We are looking at ranges in mass ratio and initial values for eccentricity, inclination, and semimajor axis. We are using the SYMBA integrator to integrate these systems until a collision occurs or a time of 200 m.y. elapses. Results are presented in a companion abstract, (also presented at this meeting).

Understanding Global Change: Frameworks and Models for Teaching Systems Thinking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bean, J. R.; Mitchell, K.; Zoehfeld, K.; Oshry, A.; Menicucci, A. J.; White, L. D.; Marshall, C. R.

2017-12-01

The scientific and education communities must impart to teachers, students, and the public an understanding of how the various factors that drive climate and global change operate, and why the rates and magnitudes of these changes related to human perturbation of Earth system processes today are cause for deep concern. Even though effective educational modules explaining components of the Earth and climate system exist, interdisciplinary learning tools are necessary to conceptually link the causes and consequences of global changes. To address this issue, the Understanding Global Change Project at the University of California Museum of Paleontology (UCMP) at UC Berkeley developed an interdisciplinary framework that organizes global change topics into three categories: (1) causes of climate change, both human and non-human (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, Earth's tilt and orbit), (2) Earth system processes that shape the way the Earth works (e.g., Earth's energy budget, water cycle), and (3) the measurable changes in the Earth system (e.g., temperature, precipitation, ocean acidification). To facilitate student learning about the Earth as a dynamic, interacting system, a website will provide visualizations of Earth system models and written descriptions of how each framework topic is conceptually linked to other components of the framework. These visualizations and textual summarizations of relationships and feedbacks in the Earth system are a unique and crucial contribution to science communication and education, informed by a team of interdisciplinary scientists and educators. The system models are also mechanisms by which scientists can communicate how their own work informs our understanding of the Earth system. Educators can provide context and relevancy for authentic datasets and concurrently can assess student understanding of the interconnectedness of global change phenomena. The UGC resources will be available through a web-based platform and scalable professional development programming to facilitate systemic changes in the teaching and learning about climate and global change. We are establishing a diverse community of scientists and educators across the country that are using these tools, and plan to create local networks supported by UGC staff and partners.

Mass, Energy, Space And Time System Theory---MEST A way to help our earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Dayong

2009-03-01

There are two danger to our earth. The first, the sun will expand to devour our earth, for example, the ozonosphere of our earth is be broken; The second, the asteroid will impact near our earth. According to MEST, there is a interaction between Black hole (and Dark matter-energy) and Solar system. The orbit of Jupiter is a boundary of the interaction between Black hole (and Dark matter-energy) and Solar system. Because there are four terrestrial planets which is mass-energy center as solar system, and there are four or five Jovian planets which is gas (space-time) center as black hole system. According to MEST, dark matter-energy take the velocity of Jupiter gose up. So there are a lot of asteroids and dark matter-energy near the orbit of Jupiter-the boundary. Dark matter-energy can change the orbit of asteroid, and take it impacted near our earth. Because the Dark matter-energy will pressure the Solar system. It is a inverse process with sun's expandedness. So the ``two danger'' is from a new process of the balance system between Black hole (and Dark matter-energy) and Solar system. According to MEST, We need to find the right point for our earth in the ``new process of the balance system.''

Using CloudSat and the A-Train to Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity in the Western North Pacific

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

CloudSat System Data Flow (from Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere 2008...radar Department of Defense Data Processing Center European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Earth observing system Earth observing... system data and information system Earth sciences systems pathfinder hierarchical data format moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer moist

Distribution behavior of uranium, neptunium, rare-earth elements ( Y, La, Ce, Nd, Sm, Eu, Gd) and alkaline-earth metals (Sr,Ba) between molten LiClKCI eutectic salt and liquid cadmium or bismuth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurata, M.; Sakamura, Y.; Hijikata, T.; Kinoshita, K.

1995-12-01

Distribution coefficients of uranium neptunium, eight rare-earth elements (Y, La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Sm, Eu and Gd) and two alkaline-earth metals (Sr and Ba) between molten LiCl-KCI eutectic salt and either liquid cadmium or bismuth were measured at 773 K. Separation factors of trivalent rare-earth elements to uranium or neptunium in the LiCl-KCl/Bi system were by one or two orders of magnitude larger than those in the LiCl-KCl/Cd system. On the contrary, the separation factors of alkaline-earth metals and divalent rare-earth elements to trivalent rare-earth elements were by one or two orders of magnitude smaller in the LiCl-KCl/Bi system.

College and University Earth System Science Education for the 21st Century (ESSE 21)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, D. R.; Ruzek, M.; Schweizer, D.

2002-12-01

The NASA/USRA Cooperative University-based Program in Earth System Science Education (ESSE), initiated over a decade ago through NASA support, has led in the creation of a nationwide collaborative effort to bring Earth system science into the undergraduate classroom. Forty-five ESSE institutions now offer over 120 Earth system courses each year, reaching thousands of students annually with interdisciplinary content. Through the course offerings by faculty from different disciplines and the organizational infrastructure of colleges and universities emphasizing cross disciplinary curricula, programs, degrees and departments, the ESSE Program has led in systemic change in the offering of a holistic view of Earth system science in the classroom. Building on this successful experience and collaborative infrastructure within and among colleges, universities and NASA partners, an expanded program called ESSE 21 is being supported by NASA to extend the legacy established during the last decade. Through its expanded focus including partnerships with under represented colleges and universities, the Program seeks to further develop broadly based educational resources, including shared courses, electronic learning materials and degree programs that will extend Earth system science concepts in both undergraduate and graduate classrooms and laboratories. These resources emphasizing fundamentals of Earth system science advance the nation's broader agenda for improving science, technology, engineering and mathematics competency. Overall the thrust within the classrooms of colleges and universities is critical to extending and solidifying courses of study in Earth system and global change science. ESSE 21 solicits proposals from undergraduate institutions to create or adopt undergraduate and graduate level Earth system science content in courses, curricula and degree programs. The goal for all is to effect systemic change through developing Earth system science learning materials, courses, curricula, minors or degree tracks, and programs or departments that are self-sustaining in the coming decades. Interdisciplinary college and university teams are competitively selected through a peer-reviewed Call for Participation. ESSE 21 offers an infrastructure for an interactive community of educators and researchers including under represented participants that develops interdisciplinary Earth system science content utilizing NASA resources involving global change data, models, visualizations and electronic media and networks. The Program provides for evaluation and assessment guides to help assure the pedagogical effectiveness of materials developed. The ultimate aim of ESSE 21 is to expand and accelerate the nation's realization of sound, scientific interdisciplinary educational resources for informed learning and decision-making by all from the perspective of sustainability of the Earth as a system.

A New Model of the Earth System Nitrogen Cycle: How Plates and Life Affect the Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, B. W.; Goldblatt, C.

2017-11-01

We have developed an Earth system N cycle model, including biologic and geologic fluxes and key nutrients such as phosphorus. The atmosphere can change mass significantly over Earth history, and the solid Earth contains most of the planet's N.

Earth Observing System Covariance Realism Updates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ojeda Romero, Juan A.; Miguel, Fred

2017-01-01

This presentation will be given at the International Earth Science Constellation Mission Operations Working Group meetings June 13-15, 2017 to discuss the Earth Observing System Covariance Realism updates.

Experimental temperature analysis of simple & hybrid earth air tunnel heat exchanger in series connection at Bikaner Rajasthan India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakhar, O. P.; Sharma, Chandra Shekhar; Kukana, Rajendra

2018-05-01

The Earth Air Tunnel Heat Exchanger System is a passive air-conditioning system which has no side effect on earth climate and produces better cooling effect and heating effect comfortable to human body. It produces heating effect in winter and cooling effect in summer with the minimum power consumption of energy as compare to other air-conditioning devices. In this research paper Temperature Analysis was done on the two systems of Earth Air Tunnel Heat Exchanger experimentally for summer cooling purpose. Both the system was installed at Mechanical Engineering Department Government Engineering College Bikaner Rajasthan India. Experimental results concludes that the Average Air Temperature Difference was found as 11.00° C and 16.27° C for the Simple and Hybrid Earth Air Tunnel Heat Exchanger in Series Connection System respectively. The Maximum Air Temperature Difference was found as 18.10° C and 23.70° C for the Simple and Hybrid Earth Air Tunnel Heat Exchanger in Series Connection System respectively. The Minimum Air Temperature Difference was found as 5.20° C and 11.70° C for the Simple and Hybrid Earth Air Tunnel Heat Exchanger in Series Connection System respectively.

Keeping Earth at work: Using thermodynamics to develop a holistic theory of the Earth system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kleidon, Axel

2010-05-01

The Earth system is unique among terrestrial planets in that it is maintained in a state far from thermodynamic equilibrium. Practically all processes are irreversible in their nature, thereby producing entropy, and these would act to destroy this state of disequilibrium. In order to maintain disequilibrium in steady state, driving forces are required that perform the work to maintain the Earth system in a state far from equilibrium. To characterize the functioning of the Earth system and the interactions among its subsystems we need to consider all terms of the first and second law of thermodynamics. While the global energy balance is well established in climatology, the global entropy and work balances receive little, if any, attention. Here I will present first steps in developing a holistic theory of the Earth system including quantifications of the relevant terms that is based on the first and second laws of thermodynamics. This theory allows us to compare the significance of different processes in driving and maintaining disequilibrium, allows us to explore interactions by investigating the role of power transfer among processes, and specifically illustrate the significance of life in driving planetary disequilibrium. Furthermore, the global work balance demonstrates the significant impact of human activity and it provides an estimate for the availability of renewable sources of free energy within the Earth system. Hence, I conclude that a holistic thermodynamic theory of the Earth system is not just some academic exercise of marginal use, but essential for a profound understanding of the Earth system and its response to change.

K-T Transition into Chaos.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McLean, Dewey M.

1988-01-01

Discusses the destabilizing influences that affect feedback systems in the earth and trigger disorganization. Presents information that integrates mantle degassing with feed-back systems, and the Sun-Earth-Space energy flow system which is the primary source of energy that drives the Earth's biosphere. (RT)

Earth Observing Data System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klene, Stephan

2016-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) acquires and distributes an abundance of Earth science data on a daily basis to a diverse user community worldwide. The NASA Big Earth Data Initiative (BEDI) is an effort to make the acquired science data more discoverable, accessible, and usable. This presentation will provide a brief introduction to the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) project and the nature of advances that have been made by BEDI to other Federal Users.

The function of the earth observing system - Data information system Distributed Active Archive Centers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lapenta, C. C.

1992-01-01

The functionality of the Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs) which are significant elements of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) is discussed. Each DAAC encompasses the information management system, the data archival and distribution system, and the product generation system. The EOSDIS DAACs are expected to improve the access to earth science data set needed for global change research.

JPSS-1 Data and the EOSDIS System: It's seamless

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, A.; Behnke, J.; Ho, E.

2017-12-01

The continuity of climate and environmental data is the key to the NASA Earth science program to develop a scientific understanding of Earth's system and its response to changes. NASA has made a long-term investment in processing, archiving and distributing Earth science data through the Earth Observing System (EOS) Data and Information System (EOSDIS). The use of the EOSDIS infrastructure and services provides seamless integration of Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (SNPP) and future Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS-1) products as it does for the entire NASA Earth Science data collection. This continuity of measurements from all the missions is supported by the use of common data structures and standards in the generation of products and the subsequent services, tools and access to those products. Similar to EOS missions, 5 Science Investigator-led Processing Systems (SIPS) were established for SNPP: Land, Ocean, Atmosphere, Ozone, and Sounder along with NASA's Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System and Ozone Mapper/Profiler Suite Limb systems now produce the NASA SNPP standard Level 1, Level 2, and Level 3 products developed by the NASA science teams.

Autonomous aerial observations to extend and complement the Earth Observing System: a science-driven systems-oriented approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandford, Stephen P.; Harrison, F. W.; Langford, John; Johnson, James W.; Qualls, Garry; Emmitt, David; Jones, W. Linwood; Shugart, Herman H., Jr.

2004-12-01

The current Earth observing capability depends primarily on spacecraft missions and ground-based networks to provide the critical on-going observations necessary for improved understanding of the Earth system. Aircraft missions play an important role in process studies but are limited to relatively short-duration flights. Suborbital observations have contributed to global environmental knowledge by providing in-depth, high-resolution observations that space-based and in-situ systems are challenged to provide; however, the limitations of aerial platforms - e.g., limited observing envelope, restrictions associated with crew safety and high cost of operations have restricted the suborbital program to a supporting role. For over a decade, it has been recognized that autonomous aerial observations could potentially be important. Advances in several technologies now enable autonomous aerial observation systems (AAOS) that can provide fundamentally new observational capability for Earth science and applications and thus lead scientists and engineers to rethink how suborbital assets can best contribute to Earth system science. Properly developed and integrated, these technologies will enable new Earth science and operational mission scenarios with long term persistence, higher-spatial and higher-temporal resolution at lower cost than space or ground based approaches. This paper presents the results of a science driven, systems oriented study of broad Earth science measurement needs. These needs identify aerial mission scenarios that complement and extend the current Earth Observing System. These aerial missions are analogous to space missions in their complexity and potential for providing significant data sets for Earth scientists. Mission classes are identified and presented based on science driven measurement needs in atmospheric, ocean and land studies. Also presented is a nominal concept of operations for an AAOS: an innovative set of suborbital assets that complements and augments current and planned space-based observing systems.

The Characteristics of Earth System Thinking of Science Gifted Students in relation to Climate Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chung, Duk Ho; Cho, Kyu Seong; Hong, Deok Pyo; Park, Kyeong Jin

2016-04-01

This study aimed to investigate the perception of earth system thinking of science gifted students in future problem solving (FPS) in relation to climate changes. In order to this study, the research problem associated with climate changes was developed through a literature review. The thirty seven science gifted students participated in lessons. The ideas in problem solving process of science gifted students were analyzed using the semantic network analysis method. The results are as follows. In the problem solving processes, science gifted students are ''changes of the sunlight by water layer'', ''changes of the Earth''s temperature'', ''changes of the air pressure'', '' change of the wind and weather''were represented in order. On other hand, regard to earth system thinking for climate changes, while science gifted students were used sub components related to atmospheres frequently, they were used sub components related to biosphere, geosphere, and hydrosphere a little. But, the analytical results of the structural relationship between the sub components related to earth system, they were recognised that biosphere, geosphere, and hydrosphere used very important in network structures. In conclusion, science gifted students were understood well that components of the earth system are influencing each other. Keywords : Science gifted students, Future problem solving, Climate change, Earth system thinking

Understanding earth system models: how Global Sensitivity Analysis can help

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-04-01

Computer models are an essential element of earth system sciences, underpinning our understanding of systems functioning and influencing the planning and management of socio-economic-environmental systems. Even when these models represent a relatively low number of physical processes and variables, earth system models can exhibit a complicated behaviour because of the high level of interactions between their simulated variables. As the level of these interactions increases, we quickly lose the ability to anticipate and interpret the model's behaviour and hence the opportunity to check whether the model gives the right response for the right reasons. Moreover, even if internally consistent, an earth system model will always produce uncertain predictions because it is often forced by uncertain inputs (due to measurement errors, pre-processing uncertainties, scarcity of measurements, etc.). Lack of transparency about the scope of validity, limitations and the main sources of uncertainty of earth system models can be a strong limitation to their effective use for both scientific and decision-making purposes. Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) is a set of statistical analysis techniques to investigate the complex behaviour of earth system models in a structured, transparent and comprehensive way. In this presentation, we will use a range of examples across earth system sciences (with a focus on hydrology) to demonstrate how GSA is a fundamental element in advancing the construction and use of earth system models, including: verifying the consistency of the model's behaviour with our conceptual understanding of the system functioning; identifying the main sources of output uncertainty so to focus efforts for uncertainty reduction; finding tipping points in forcing inputs that, if crossed, would bring the system to specific conditions we want to avoid.

Feasibility Study of Space Based Solar Power to Tethered Aerostat Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blank, Stephen J.; Leete, Stephen J.; Jaffe, Paul

2013-01-01

The feasibility of two-stage Space-Based Solar Power to Tethered Aerostat to Earth (SSP-TA) system architectures that offer significant advantages over conventional single stage space-to-earth architectures is being studied. There have been many proposals for the transmission of solar power collected in space to the surface of the earth so that solar energy could provide a major part of the electric power requirements on earth. There are, however, serious difficulties in implementing the single stage space-based solar power systems that have been previously studied. These difficulties arise due to: i) the cost of transporting the components needed for the extremely large microwave transmit beaming aperture into space orbit, ii) the even larger collection apertures required on earth, iii) the potential radiation hazard to personnel and equipment on earth, and iv) a lack of flexibility in location of the collection station on the earth. Two candidate system architectures are described here to overcome these difficulties. In both cases a two-stage space to tethered aerostat to earth transmission system (SSP-TA) is proposed. The use of high altitude tethered aerostats (or powered airships) avoids the effects of attenuation of EM energy propagating through the earth s lower atmosphere. This allows the use of beaming frequencies to be chosen from the range of high millimeter (THz) to near-infra-red (NIR) to the visible. This has the potential for: i) greatly reduced transportation costs to space, ii) much smaller receiver collection apertures and ground stations, iii) elimination of the potential radiation hazard to personnel and equipment on earth, and iv) ease in transportation and flexibility in location of the collection station on the earth. A preliminary comparison of system performance and efficiencies is presented.

Multi-Instrument Tools and Services to Access NASA Earth Science Data from the GSFC Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kempler, Steve; Leptoukh, Greg; Lynnes, Chris

2010-01-01

The presentation purpose is to describe multi-instrument tools and services that facilitate access and usability of NASA Earth science data at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). NASA's Earth observing system includes 14 satellites. Topics include EOSDIS facilities and system architecture, and overview of GSFC Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) mission, Mirador data search, Giovanni, multi-instrument data exploration, Google Earth[TM], data merging, and applications.

Discover Earth: Earth's Energy Budget or Can You Spare a Sun?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gates, Tom; Peters, Dale E.; Steeley, Jeanne

1999-01-01

Discover Earth is a NASA-sponsored project for teachers of grades 5-12, designed to: enhance understanding of the Earth as an integrated system enhance the interdisciplinary approach to science instruction, and provide classroom materials that focus on those goals. Discover Earth is conducted by the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies in collaboration with Dr. Eric Barron, Director, Earth System Science Center, The Pennsylvania State University; and Dr. Robert Hudson, Chair, the Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland at College Park.

Earth Science Enterprise Technology Strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1999-01-01

NASA's Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) is dedicated to understanding the total Earth system and the effects of natural and human-induced changes on the global environment. The goals of ESE are: (1) Expand scientific knowledge of the Earth system using NASA's unique vantage points of space, aircraft, and in situ platforms; (2) Disseminate information about the Earth system; and (3) Enable the productive use of ESE science and technology in the public and private sectors. ESE has embraced the NASA Administrator's better, faster, cheaper paradigm for Earth observing missions. We are committed to launch the next generation of Earth Observing System (EOS) missions at a substantially lower cost than the EOS first series. Strategic investment in advanced instrument, spacecraft, and information system technologies is essential to accomplishing ESE's research goals in the coming decades. Advanced technology will play a major role in shaping the ESE fundamental and applied research program of the future. ESE has established an Earth science technology development program with the following objectives: (1) To accomplish ESE space-based and land-based program elements effectively and efficiently; and (2) To enable ESE's fundamental and applied research programs goals as stated in the NASA Strategic Plan.

The Earth System Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schoeberl, Mark; Rood, Richard B.; Hildebrand, Peter; Raymond, Carol

2003-01-01

The Earth System Model is the natural evolution of current climate models and will be the ultimate embodiment of our geophysical understanding of the planet. These models are constructed from components - atmosphere, ocean, ice, land, chemistry, solid earth, etc. models and merged together through a coupling program which is responsible for the exchange of data from the components. Climate models and future earth system models will have standardized modules, and these standards are now being developed by the ESMF project funded by NASA. The Earth System Model will have a variety of uses beyond climate prediction. The model can be used to build climate data records making it the core of an assimilation system, and it can be used in OSSE experiments to evaluate. The computing and storage requirements for the ESM appear to be daunting. However, the Japanese ES theoretical computing capability is already within 20% of the minimum requirements needed for some 2010 climate model applications. Thus it seems very possible that a focused effort to build an Earth System Model will achieve succcss.

The COSPAR roadmap on Space-based observation and Integrated Earth System Science for 2016-2025

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fellous, Jean-Louis

2016-07-01

The Committee on Space Research of the International Council for Science recently commissioned a study group to prepare a roadmap on observation and integrated Earth-system science for the coming ten years. Its focus is on the combined use of observations and modelling to address the functioning, predictability and projected evolution of the Earth system on timescales out to a century or so. It discusses how observations support integrated Earth-system science and its applications, and identifies planned enhancements to the contributing observing systems and other requirements for observations and their processing. The paper will provide an overview of the content of the roadmap. All types of observation are considered in the roadmap, but emphasis is placed on those made from space. The origins and development of the integrated view of the Earth system are outlined, noting the interactions between the main components that lead to requirements for integrated science and modelling, and for the observations that guide and support them. What constitutes an Earth-system model is discussed. Summaries are given of key cycles within the Earth system. The nature of Earth observation and the arrangements for international coordination essential for effective operation of global observing systems are introduced in the roadmap. Instances are given of present types of observation, what is already on the roadmap for 2016-2025 and some of the issues to be faced. The current status and prospects for Earth-system modelling are summarized. Data assimilation is discussed not only because it uses observations and models to generate datasets for monitoring the Earth system and for initiating and evaluating predictions, in particular through reanalysis, but also because of the feedback it provides on the quality of both the observations and the models employed. Finally the roadmap offers a set of concluding discussions covering general developmental needs, requirements for continuity of space-based observing systems, further long-term requirements for observations and other data, technological advances and data challenges, and the importance of enhanced international cooperation.

Energy efficiency evaluation of a stationary lithium-ion battery container storage system via electro-thermal modeling and detailed component analysis

DOE PAGES

Schimpe, Michael; Naumann, Maik; Truong, Nam; ...

2017-11-08

Energy efficiency is a key performance indicator for battery storage systems. A detailed electro-thermal model of a stationary lithium-ion battery system is developed and an evaluation of its energy efficiency is conducted. The model offers a holistic approach to calculating conversion losses and auxiliary power consumption. Sub-models for battery rack, power electronics, thermal management as well as the control and monitoring components are developed and coupled to a comprehensive model. The simulation is parametrized based on a prototype 192 kWh system using lithium iron phosphate batteries connected to the low voltage grid. The key loss mechanisms are identified, thoroughly analyzedmore » and modeled. Generic profiles featuring various system operation modes are evaluated to show the characteristics of stationary battery systems. Typically the losses in the power electronics outweigh the losses in the battery at low power operating points. The auxiliary power consumption dominates for low system utilization rates. For estimation of real-world performance, the grid applications Primary Control Reserve, Secondary Control Reserve and the storage of surplus photovoltaic power are evaluated. Conversion round-trip efficiency is in the range of 70-80%. Finally, overall system efficiency, which also considers system power consumption, is 8-13 percentage points lower for Primary Control Reserve and the photovoltaic-battery application. However, for Secondary Control Reserve, the total round-trip efficiency is found to be extremely low at 23% due to the low energy throughput of this application type.« less

Energy efficiency evaluation of a stationary lithium-ion battery container storage system via electro-thermal modeling and detailed component analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schimpe, Michael; Naumann, Maik; Truong, Nam

Energy efficiency is a key performance indicator for battery storage systems. A detailed electro-thermal model of a stationary lithium-ion battery system is developed and an evaluation of its energy efficiency is conducted. The model offers a holistic approach to calculating conversion losses and auxiliary power consumption. Sub-models for battery rack, power electronics, thermal management as well as the control and monitoring components are developed and coupled to a comprehensive model. The simulation is parametrized based on a prototype 192 kWh system using lithium iron phosphate batteries connected to the low voltage grid. The key loss mechanisms are identified, thoroughly analyzedmore » and modeled. Generic profiles featuring various system operation modes are evaluated to show the characteristics of stationary battery systems. Typically the losses in the power electronics outweigh the losses in the battery at low power operating points. The auxiliary power consumption dominates for low system utilization rates. For estimation of real-world performance, the grid applications Primary Control Reserve, Secondary Control Reserve and the storage of surplus photovoltaic power are evaluated. Conversion round-trip efficiency is in the range of 70-80%. Finally, overall system efficiency, which also considers system power consumption, is 8-13 percentage points lower for Primary Control Reserve and the photovoltaic-battery application. However, for Secondary Control Reserve, the total round-trip efficiency is found to be extremely low at 23% due to the low energy throughput of this application type.« less

NASA's Earth Science Flight Program Meets the Challenges of Today and Tomorrow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ianson, Eric E.

2016-01-01

NASA's Earth science flight program is a dynamic undertaking that consists of a large fleet of operating satellites, an array of satellite and instrument projects in various stages of development, a robust airborne science program, and a massive data archiving and distribution system. Each element of the flight program is complex and present unique challenges. NASA builds upon its successes and learns from its setbacks to manage this evolving portfolio to meet NASA's Earth science objectives. NASA fleet of 16 operating missions provide a wide range of scientific measurements made from dedicated Earth science satellites and from instruments mounted to the International Space Station. For operational missions, the program must address issues such as an aging satellites operating well beyond their prime mission, constellation flying, and collision avoidance with other spacecraft and orbital debris. Projects in development are divided into two broad categories: systematic missions and pathfinders. The Earth Systematic Missions (ESM) include a broad range of multi-disciplinary Earth-observing research satellite missions aimed at understanding the Earth system and its response to natural and human-induced forces and changes. Understanding these forces will help determine how to predict future changes, and how to mitigate or adapt to these changes. The Earth System Science Pathfinder (ESSP) program provides frequent, regular, competitively selected Earth science research opportunities that accommodate new and emerging scientific priorities and measurement capabilities. This results in a series of relatively low-cost, small-sized investigations and missions. Principal investigators whose scientific objectives support a variety of studies lead these missions, including studies of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, polar ice regions, or solid Earth. This portfolio of missions and investigations provides opportunity for investment in innovative Earth science that enhances NASA's capability for better understanding the current state of the Earth system. ESM and ESSP projects often involve partnerships with other US agencies and/or international organizations. This adds to the complexity of mission development, but allows for a greater scientific return on NASA's investments. The Earth Science Airborne Science Program provides manned and unmanned aircraft systems that further science and advance the use of satellite data. NASA uses these assets worldwide in campaigns to investigate extreme weather events, observe Earth system processes, obtain data for Earth science modeling activities, and calibrate instruments flying aboard Earth science spacecraft. The Airborne Science Program has six dedicated aircraft and access to many other platforms. The Earth Science Multi-Mission Operations program acquires, preserves, and distributes observational data from operating spacecraft to support Earth Science research focus areas. The Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS), which has been in operations since 1994, primarily accomplishes this. EOSDIS acquires, processes, archives, and distributes Earth Science data and information products. The archiving of NASA Earth Science information happens at eight Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs) and four disciplinary data centers located across the United States. The DAACs specialize by topic area, and make their data available to researchers around the world. The DAACs currently house over 9 petabytes of data, growing at a rate of 6.4 terabytes per day. NASA's current Earth Science portfolio is responsive to the National Research Council (NRC) 2007 Earth Science Decadal Survey and well as the 2010 NASA Response to President Obama's Climate Plan. As the program evolves into the future it will leverage the lessons learned from the current missions in operations and development, and plan for adjustments to future objectives in response to the anticipated 2017 NRC Decadal Survey.

Transmembrane Topology and Signal Peptide Prediction Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

PubMed Central

Reynolds, Sheila M.; Käll, Lukas; Riffle, Michael E.; Bilmes, Jeff A.; Noble, William Stafford

2008-01-01

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) have been successfully applied to the tasks of transmembrane protein topology prediction and signal peptide prediction. In this paper we expand upon this work by making use of the more powerful class of dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). Our model, Philius, is inspired by a previously published HMM, Phobius, and combines a signal peptide submodel with a transmembrane submodel. We introduce a two-stage DBN decoder that combines the power of posterior decoding with the grammar constraints of Viterbi-style decoding. Philius also provides protein type, segment, and topology confidence metrics to aid in the interpretation of the predictions. We report a relative improvement of 13% over Phobius in full-topology prediction accuracy on transmembrane proteins, and a sensitivity and specificity of 0.96 in detecting signal peptides. We also show that our confidence metrics correlate well with the observed precision. In addition, we have made predictions on all 6.3 million proteins in the Yeast Resource Center (YRC) database. This large-scale study provides an overall picture of the relative numbers of proteins that include a signal-peptide and/or one or more transmembrane segments as well as a valuable resource for the scientific community. All DBNs are implemented using the Graphical Models Toolkit. Source code for the models described here is available at http://noble.gs.washington.edu/proj/philius. A Philius Web server is available at http://www.yeastrc.org/philius, and the predictions on the YRC database are available at http://www.yeastrc.org/pdr. PMID:18989393

Microbial processes in marine ecosystem models: state of the art and future prospective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polimene, L.; Butenschon, M.; Blackford, J.; Allen, I.

2012-12-01

Heterotrophic bacteria play a key role in the marine biogeochemistry being the main consumer of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and the main producer of carbon dioxide (CO2) by respiration. Quantifying the carbon and energy fluxes within bacteria (i.e. production, respiration, overflow metabolism etc.) is therefore crucial for the assessment of the global ocean carbon and nutrient cycles. Consequently, the description of bacteria dynamic in ecosystem models is a key (although challenging) issue which cannot be overlooked if we want to properly simulate the marine environment. We present an overview of the microbial processes described in the European Sea Regional Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), a state of the art biogeochemical model resolving carbon and nutrient cycles (N, P, Si and Fe) within the low trophic levels (up to mesozooplankton) of the marine ecosystem. The description of the theoretical assumptions and philosophy underpinning the ERSEM bacteria sub-model will be followed by the presentation of some case studies highlighting the relevance of resolving microbial processes in the simulation of ecosystem dynamics at a local scale. Recent results concerning the implementation of ERSEM on a global ocean domain will be also presented. This latter exercise includes a comparison between simulations carried out with the full bacteria sub-model and simulations carried out with an implicit parameterization of bacterial activity. The results strongly underline the importance of explicitly resolved bacteria in the simulation of global carbon fluxes. Finally, a summary of the future developments along with issues still open on the topic will be presented and discussed.

A Quantitative Model of Early Atherosclerotic Plaques Parameterized Using In Vitro Experiments.

PubMed

Thon, Moritz P; Ford, Hugh Z; Gee, Michael W; Myerscough, Mary R

2018-01-01

There are a growing number of studies that model immunological processes in the artery wall that lead to the development of atherosclerotic plaques. However, few of these models use parameters that are obtained from experimental data even though data-driven models are vital if mathematical models are to become clinically relevant. We present the development and analysis of a quantitative mathematical model for the coupled inflammatory, lipid and macrophage dynamics in early atherosclerotic plaques. Our modeling approach is similar to the biologists' experimental approach where the bigger picture of atherosclerosis is put together from many smaller observations and findings from in vitro experiments. We first develop a series of three simpler submodels which are least-squares fitted to various in vitro experimental results from the literature. Subsequently, we use these three submodels to construct a quantitative model of the development of early atherosclerotic plaques. We perform a local sensitivity analysis of the model with respect to its parameters that identifies critical parameters and processes. Further, we present a systematic analysis of the long-term outcome of the model which produces a characterization of the stability of model plaques based on the rates of recruitment of low-density lipoproteins, high-density lipoproteins and macrophages. The analysis of the model suggests that further experimental work quantifying the different fates of macrophages as a function of cholesterol load and the balance between free cholesterol and cholesterol ester inside macrophages may give valuable insight into long-term atherosclerotic plaque outcomes. This model is an important step toward models applicable in a clinical setting.

Three-dimensional modeling of diesel engine intake flow, combustion and emissions-2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reitz, R. D.; Rutland, C. J.

1993-01-01

A three-dimensional computer code, KIVA, is being modified to include state-of-the-art submodels for diesel engine flow and combustion. Improved and/or new submodels which have already been implemented and previously reported are: wall heat transfer with unsteadiness and compressibility, laminar-turbulent characteristic time combustion with unburned HC and Zeldo'vich NO(x), and spray/wall impingement with rebounding and sliding drops. Progress on the implementation of improved spray drop drag and drop breakup models, the formulation and testing of a multistep kinetics ignition model, and preliminary soot modeling results are described. In addition, the use of a block structured version of KIVA to model the intake flow process is described. A grid generation scheme was developed for modeling realistic (complex) engine geometries, and computations were made of intake flow in the ports and combustion chamber of a two-intake-value engine. The research also involves the use of the code to assess the effects of subprocesses on diesel engine performance. The accuracy of the predictions is being tested by comparisons with engine experiments. To date, comparisons were made with measured engine cylinder pressure, temperature and heat flux data, and the model results are in good agreement with the experiments. Work is in progress that will allow validation of in-cylinder flow and soot formation predictions. An engine test facility is described that is being used to provide the needed validation data. Test results were obtained showing the effect of injection rate and split injections on engine performance and emissions.

A watershed scale spatially-distributed model for streambank erosion rate driven by channel curvature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMillan, Mitchell; Hu, Zhiyong

2017-10-01

Streambank erosion is a major source of fluvial sediment, but few large-scale, spatially distributed models exist to quantify streambank erosion rates. We introduce a spatially distributed model for streambank erosion applicable to sinuous, single-thread channels. We argue that such a model can adequately characterize streambank erosion rates, measured at the outsides of bends over a 2-year time period, throughout a large region. The model is based on the widely-used excess-velocity equation and comprised three components: a physics-based hydrodynamic model, a large-scale 1-dimensional model of average monthly discharge, and an empirical bank erodibility parameterization. The hydrodynamic submodel requires inputs of channel centerline, slope, width, depth, friction factor, and a scour factor A; the large-scale watershed submodel utilizes watershed-averaged monthly outputs of the Noah-2.8 land surface model; bank erodibility is based on tree cover and bank height as proxies for root density. The model was calibrated with erosion rates measured in sand-bed streams throughout the northern Gulf of Mexico coastal plain. The calibrated model outperforms a purely empirical model, as well as a model based only on excess velocity, illustrating the utility of combining a physics-based hydrodynamic model with an empirical bank erodibility relationship. The model could be improved by incorporating spatial variability in channel roughness and the hydrodynamic scour factor, which are here assumed constant. A reach-scale application of the model is illustrated on ∼1 km of a medium-sized, mixed forest-pasture stream, where the model identifies streambank erosion hotspots on forested and non-forested bends.

The Role and Evolution of NASA's Earth Science Data Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramapriyan, H. K.

2015-01-01

One of the three strategic goals of NASA is to Advance understanding of Earth and develop technologies to improve the quality of life on our home planet (NASA strategic plan 2014). NASA's Earth Science Data System (ESDS) Program directly supports this goal. NASA has been launching satellites for civilian Earth observations for over 40 years, and collecting data from various types of instruments. Especially since 1990, with the start of the Earth Observing System (EOS) Program, which was a part of the Mission to Planet Earth, the observations have been significantly more extensive in their volumes, variety and velocity. Frequent, global observations are made in support of Earth system science. An open data policy has been in effect since 1990, with no period of exclusive access and non-discriminatory access to data, free of charge. NASA currently holds nearly 10 petabytes of Earth science data including satellite, air-borne, and ground-based measurements and derived geophysical parameter products in digital form. Millions of users around the world are using NASA data for Earth science research and applications. In 2014, over a billion data files were downloaded by users from NASAs EOS Data and Information System (EOSDIS), a system with 12 Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs) across the U. S. As a core component of the ESDS Program, EOSDIS has been operating since 1994, and has been evolving continuously with advances in information technology. The ESDS Program influences as well as benefits from advances in Earth Science Informatics. The presentation will provide an overview of the role and evolution of NASAs ESDS Program.

NASA'S Earth Science Data Stewardship Activities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lowe, Dawn R.; Murphy, Kevin J.; Ramapriyan, Hampapuram

2015-01-01

NASA has been collecting Earth observation data for over 50 years using instruments on board satellites, aircraft and ground-based systems. With the inception of the Earth Observing System (EOS) Program in 1990, NASA established the Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS) Project and initiated development of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). A set of Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs) was established at locations based on science discipline expertise. Today, EOSDIS consists of 12 DAACs and 12 Science Investigator-led Processing Systems (SIPS), processing data from the EOS missions, as well as the Suomi National Polar Orbiting Partnership mission, and other satellite and airborne missions. The DAACs archive and distribute the vast majority of data from NASA’s Earth science missions, with data holdings exceeding 12 petabytes The data held by EOSDIS are available to all users consistent with NASA’s free and open data policy, which has been in effect since 1990. The EOSDIS archives consist of raw instrument data counts (level 0 data), as well as higher level standard products (e.g., geophysical parameters, products mapped to standard spatio-temporal grids, results of Earth system models using multi-instrument observations, and long time series of Earth System Data Records resulting from multiple satellite observations of a given type of phenomenon). EOSDIS data stewardship responsibilities include ensuring that the data and information content are reliable, of high quality, easily accessible, and usable for as long as they are considered to be of value.

Electromagnetic-gravitational energy systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, K. H.

1981-01-01

Two methods are considered to 'tap' the earth's rotational energy. This ancient 'collapsed gravitational energy' exceeds the earth-lunar binding energy. One involves an orbiting 'electromagnetic-gravitational' coupling system whereby the earth's rotation, with its nonuniform mass distribution, first uses gravity to add orbital energy to a satellite, similar to a planetary 'flyby'. The second stage involves enhanced satellite 'drag' as current-carrying coils withdraw the added orbital energy as they pass through the earth's nonuniform magnetic field. A second more direct method couples the earth's rotational motion using conducting wires moving through the noncorotating part (ionospheric current systems) of the geomagnetic field. These methods, although not immediately feasible, are considerably more efficient than using pure gravitational coupling to earth-moon tides.

TERSSE: Definition of the Total Earth Resources System for the Shuttle Era. Volume 4: The Role of the Shuttle in the Earth Resources Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

The potential of the space shuttle as a platform for captive earth resources payloads in the sortie mode, and as a launch and services vehicle for automated earth resources spacecraft is examined. The capabilities of the total space transportation system which are pertinent to earth resources sorties and automated spacecraft are included.

A Desktop Virtual Reality Earth Motion System in Astronomy Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Chih Hung; Yang, Jie Chi; Shen, Sarah; Jeng, Ming Chang

2007-01-01

In this study, a desktop virtual reality earth motion system (DVREMS) is designed and developed to be applied in the classroom. The system is implemented to assist elementary school students to clarify earth motion concepts using virtual reality principles. A study was conducted to observe the influences of the proposed system in learning.…

The computational challenges of Earth-system science.

PubMed

O'Neill, Alan; Steenman-Clark, Lois

2002-06-15

The Earth system--comprising atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere and biosphere--is an immensely complex system, involving processes and interactions on a wide range of space- and time-scales. To understand and predict the evolution of the Earth system is one of the greatest challenges of modern science, with success likely to bring enormous societal benefits. High-performance computing, along with the wealth of new observational data, is revolutionizing our ability to simulate the Earth system with computer models that link the different components of the system together. There are, however, considerable scientific and technical challenges to be overcome. This paper will consider four of them: complexity, spatial resolution, inherent uncertainty and time-scales. Meeting these challenges requires a significant increase in the power of high-performance computers. The benefits of being able to make reliable predictions about the evolution of the Earth system should, on their own, amply repay this investment.

Mission to Planet Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Gregory S.; Huntress, Wesley T.

1990-01-01

The rationale behind Mission to Planet Earth is presented, and the program plan is described in detail. NASA and its interagency and international partners will place satellites carrying advanced sensors in strategic earth orbits to collect muultidisciplinary data. A sophisticated data system will process and archive an unprecedented large amount of information about the earth and how it functions as a system. Attention is given to the space observatories, the data and information systems, and the interdisciplinary research.

Four dimensional studies in earth space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mather, R. S.

1972-01-01

A system of reference which is directly related to observations, is proposed for four-dimensional studies in earth space. Global control network and polar wandering are defined. The determination of variations in the earth's gravitational field with time also forms part of such a system. Techniques are outlined for the unique definition of the motion of the geocenter, and the changes in the location of the axis of rotation of an instantaneous earth model, in relation to values at some epoch of reference. The instantaneous system referred to is directly related to a fundamental equation in geodynamics. The reference system defined would provide an unambiguous frame for long period studies in earth space, provided the scale of the space were specified.

NASDA's earth observation satellite data archive policy for the earth observation data and information system (EOIS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sobue, Shin-ichi; Yoshida, Fumiyoshi; Ochiai, Osamu

1996-01-01

NASDA's new Advanced Earth Observing Satellite (ADEOS) is scheduled for launch in August, 1996. ADEOS carries 8 sensors to observe earth environmental phenomena and sends their data to NASDA, NASA, and other foreign ground stations around the world. The downlink data bit rate for ADEOS is 126 MB/s and the total volume of data is about 100 GB per day. To archive and manage such a large quantity of data with high reliability and easy accessibility it was necessary to develop a new mass storage system with a catalogue information database using advanced database management technology. The data will be archived and maintained in the Master Data Storage Subsystem (MDSS) which is one subsystem in NASDA's new Earth Observation data and Information System (EOIS). The MDSS is based on a SONY ID1 digital tape robotics system. This paper provides an overview of the EOIS system, with a focus on the Master Data Storage Subsystem and the NASDA Earth Observation Center (EOC) archive policy for earth observation satellite data.

Connecting Earth Systems: Developing Holistic Understanding through the Earth-System-Science Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gagnon, Valoree; Bradway, Heather

2012-01-01

For many years, Earth science concepts have been taught as thematic units with lessons in nice, neat chapter packages complete with labs and notes. But compartmentalized Earth science no longer exists, and implementing teaching methods that support student development of holistic understandings can be a time-consuming and difficult task. While…

47 CFR 80.1077 - Frequencies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... System: Alerting: 406.0-406.1 EPIRBs 406.0-406.1 MHz (Earth-to-space).1544-1545 MHz (space-to-Earth). INMARSAT-E EPIRBs 12 1626.5-1645.5 MHz (Earth-to-space). INMARSAT Ship Earth Stations capable of voice and... MARITIME SERVICES Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS) General Provisions § 80.1077...

Satellite and earth science data management activities at the U.S. geological survey's EROS data center

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carneggie, David M.; Metz, Gary G.; Draeger, William C.; Thompson, Ralph J.

1991-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey's Earth Resources Observation Systems (EROS) Data Center, the national archive for Landsat data, has 20 years of experience in acquiring, archiving, processing, and distributing Landsat and earth science data. The Center is expanding its satellite and earth science data management activities to support the U.S. Global Change Research Program and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Observing System Program. The Center's current and future data management activities focus on land data and include: satellite and earth science data set acquisition, development and archiving; data set preservation, maintenance and conversion to more durable and accessible archive medium; development of an advanced Land Data Information System; development of enhanced data packaging and distribution mechanisms; and data processing, reprocessing, and product generation systems.

Understanding Student Cognition about Complex Earth System Processes Related to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNeal, K. S.; Libarkin, J.; Ledley, T. S.; Dutta, S.; Templeton, M. C.; Geroux, J.; Blakeney, G. A.

2011-12-01

The Earth's climate system includes complex behavior and interconnections with other Earth spheres that present challenges to student learning. To better understand these unique challenges, we have conducted experiments with high-school and introductory level college students to determine how information pertaining to the connections between the Earth's atmospheric system and the other Earth spheres (e.g., hydrosphere and cryosphere) are processed. Specifically, we include psychomotor tests (e.g., eye-tracking) and open-ended questionnaires in this research study, where participants were provided scientific images of the Earth (e.g., global precipitation and ocean and atmospheric currents), eye-tracked, and asked to provide causal or relational explanations about the viewed images. In addition, the students engaged in on-line modules (http://serc.carleton.edu/eslabs/climate/index.html) focused on Earth system science as training activities to address potential cognitive barriers. The developed modules included interactive media, hands-on lessons, links to outside resources, and formative assessment questions to promote a supportive and data-rich learning environment. Student eye movements were tracked during engagement with the materials to determine the role of perception and attention on understanding. Students also completed a conceptual questionnaire pre-post to determine if these on-line curriculum materials assisted in their development of connections between Earth's atmospheric system and the other Earth systems. The pre-post results of students' thinking about climate change concepts, as well as eye-tracking results, will be presented.

Parallel Optimization of an Earth System Model (100 Gigaflops and Beyond?)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drummond, L. A.; Farrara, J. D.; Mechoso, C. R.; Spahr, J. A.; Chao, Y.; Katz, S.; Lou, J. Z.; Wang, P.

1997-01-01

We are developing an Earth System Model (ESM) to be used in research aimed to better understand the interactions between the components of the Earth System and to eventually predict their variations. Currently, our ESM includes models of the atmosphere, oceans and the important chemical tracers therein.

47 CFR 25.272 - General inter-system coordination procedures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... network control center which will have the responsibility to monitor space-to-Earth transmissions in its system. This would indirectly monitor uplink earth station transmissions in its system and to coordinate.... (c) The transmitting earth station licensee shall provide the operator(s) of the satellites, on which...

47 CFR 25.272 - General inter-system coordination procedures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... network control center which will have the responsibility to monitor space-to-Earth transmissions in its system. This would indirectly monitor uplink earth station transmissions in its system and to coordinate.... (c) The transmitting earth station licensee shall provide the operator(s) of the satellites, on which...

47 CFR 25.272 - General inter-system coordination procedures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... network control center which will have the responsibility to do the following: (1) Monitor space-to-Earth transmissions in its system (thus indirectly monitoring uplink earth station transmissions in its system) and (2... and correct the problem promptly. (b) [Reserved] (c) The transmitting earth station licensee shall...

47 CFR 25.272 - General inter-system coordination procedures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... network control center which will have the responsibility to do the following: (1) Monitor space-to-Earth transmissions in its system (thus indirectly monitoring uplink earth station transmissions in its system) and (2... issues. (c) The transmitting earth station licensee shall provide the operator(s) of the satellites, on...

Photovoltaic power system for satellite Earth stations in remote areas: Project status and design description

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delombard, R.

1984-01-01

A photovoltaic power system which will be installed at a remote location in Indonesia to provide power for a satellite Earth station and a classroom for video and audio teleconferences are described. The Earth station may also provide telephone service to a nearby village. The use of satellite communications for development assistance applications and the suitability of a hybrid photovoltaic engine generator power system for remote satellite Earth stations are demonstrated. The Indonesian rural satellite project is discussed and the photovoltaic power system is described.

ESA'S Biomass Mission System And Payload Overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arcioni, M.; Bensi, P.; Fois, F.; Gabriele, A.; Heliere, F.; Lin, C. C.; Massotti, L.; Scipal, K.

2013-12-01

Earth Explorers are the backbone of the science and research element of ESA's Living Planet Programme, providing an important contribution to the understanding of the Earth system. Following the User Consultation Meeting held in Graz, Austria on 5-6 March 2013, the Earth Science Advisory Committee (ESAC) has recommended implementing Biomass as the 7th Earth Explorer Mission within the frame of the ESA Earth Observation Envelope Programme. This paper will give an overview of the satellite system and its payload. The system technical description presented here is based on the results of the work performed during parallel Phase A system studies by two industrial consortia led by EADS Astrium Ltd. and Thales Alenia Space Italy. Two implementation concepts (respectively A and B) are described and provide viable options capable of meeting the mission requirements.