AMOC decadal variability in Earth system models: Mechanisms and climate impacts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fedorov, Alexey

This is the final report for the project titled "AMOC decadal variability in Earth system models: Mechanisms and climate impacts". The central goal of this one-year research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean GCMs to Earth system models. The AMOC is a key element of ocean circulation responsible for oceanic transport of heat from low to high latitudes and controlling, to a large extent, climate variations in the North Atlantic. The questions of the AMOC stability, variability andmore » predictability, directly relevant to the questions of climate predictability, were at the center of the research work.« less

Bioaerosols in the Earth system: Climate, health, and ecosystem interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fröhlich-Nowoisky, Janine; Kampf, Christopher J.; Weber, Bettina; Huffman, J. Alex; Pöhlker, Christopher; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Lang-Yona, Naama; Burrows, Susannah M.; Gunthe, Sachin S.; Elbert, Wolfgang; Su, Hang; Hoor, Peter; Thines, Eckhard; Hoffmann, Thorsten; Després, Viviane R.; Pöschl, Ulrich

2016-12-01

Aerosols of biological origin play a vital role in the Earth system, particularly in the interactions between atmosphere, biosphere, climate, and public health. Airborne bacteria, fungal spores, pollen, and other bioparticles are essential for the reproduction and spread of organisms across various ecosystems, and they can cause or enhance human, animal, and plant diseases. Moreover, they can serve as nuclei for cloud droplets, ice crystals, and precipitation, thus influencing the hydrological cycle and climate. The sources, abundance, composition, and effects of biological aerosols and the atmospheric microbiome are, however, not yet well characterized and constitute a large gap in the scientific understanding of the interaction and co-evolution of life and climate in the Earth system. This review presents an overview of the state of bioaerosol research, highlights recent advances, and outlines future perspectives in terms of bioaerosol identification, characterization, transport, and transformation processes, as well as their interactions with climate, health, and ecosystems, focusing on the role bioaerosols play in the Earth system.

Bioaerosols in the Earth system: Climate, health, and ecosystem interactions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fröhlich-Nowoisky, Janine; Kampf, Christopher J.; Weber, Bettina

Aerosols of biological origin play a vital role in the Earth system, particularly in the in-teractions between atmosphere, biosphere, climate, and public health. Airborne bacteria, fungal spores, pollen, and other bioparticles are essential for the reproduction and spread of organisms across various ecosystems, and they can cause or enhance human, animal, and plant diseases. Moreover, they can serve as nuclei for cloud droplets, ice crystals, and precipitation, thus influencing the hydrological cycle and climate. The actual formation, abundance, composition, and effects of biological aerosols and the atmospheric microbi-ome are, however, not yet well characterized and constitute a large gap inmore » the scientific understanding of the interaction and co-evolution of life and climate in the Earth system. This review presents an overview of the state of bioaerosol research and highlights recent advances in terms of bioaerosol identification, characterization, transport, and transfor-mation processes, as well as their interactions with climate, health, and ecosystems, focus-ing on the role bioaerosols play in the Earth system.« less

Physical Processes Controlling Earth's Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Genio, Anthony Del

2013-01-01

As background for consideration of the climates of the other terrestrial planets in our solar system and the potential habitability of rocky exoplanets, we discuss the basic physics that controls the Earths present climate, with particular emphasis on the energy and water cycles. We define several dimensionless parameters relevant to characterizing a planets general circulation, climate and hydrological cycle. We also consider issues associated with the use of past climate variations as indicators of future anthropogenically forced climate change, and recent advances in understanding projections of future climate that might have implications for Earth-like exoplanets.

Climate in Earth history

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berger, W. H.; Crowell, J. C.

1982-01-01

Complex atmosphere-ocean-land interactions govern the climate system and its variations. During the course of Earth history, nature has performed a large number of experiments involving climatic change; the geologic record contains much information regarding these experiments. This information should result in an increased understanding of the climate system, including climatic stability and factors that perturb climate. In addition, the paleoclimatic record has been demonstrated to be useful in interpreting the origin of important resources-petroleum, natural gas, coal, phosphate deposits, and many others.

Representing natural and manmade drainage systems in an earth system modeling framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Hongyi; Wu, Huan; Huang, Maoyi

Drainage systems can be categorized into natural or geomorphological drainage systems, agricultural drainage systems and urban drainage systems. They interact closely among themselves and with climate and human society, particularly under extreme climate and hydrological events such as floods. This editorial articulates the need to holistically understand and model drainage systems in the context of climate change and human influence, and discusses the requirements and examples of feasible approaches to representing natural and manmade drainage systems in an earth system modeling framework.

Understanding Student Cognition about Complex Earth System Processes Related to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNeal, K. S.; Libarkin, J.; Ledley, T. S.; Dutta, S.; Templeton, M. C.; Geroux, J.; Blakeney, G. A.

2011-12-01

The Earth's climate system includes complex behavior and interconnections with other Earth spheres that present challenges to student learning. To better understand these unique challenges, we have conducted experiments with high-school and introductory level college students to determine how information pertaining to the connections between the Earth's atmospheric system and the other Earth spheres (e.g., hydrosphere and cryosphere) are processed. Specifically, we include psychomotor tests (e.g., eye-tracking) and open-ended questionnaires in this research study, where participants were provided scientific images of the Earth (e.g., global precipitation and ocean and atmospheric currents), eye-tracked, and asked to provide causal or relational explanations about the viewed images. In addition, the students engaged in on-line modules (http://serc.carleton.edu/eslabs/climate/index.html) focused on Earth system science as training activities to address potential cognitive barriers. The developed modules included interactive media, hands-on lessons, links to outside resources, and formative assessment questions to promote a supportive and data-rich learning environment. Student eye movements were tracked during engagement with the materials to determine the role of perception and attention on understanding. Students also completed a conceptual questionnaire pre-post to determine if these on-line curriculum materials assisted in their development of connections between Earth's atmospheric system and the other Earth systems. The pre-post results of students' thinking about climate change concepts, as well as eye-tracking results, will be presented.

Modelling the Climate - Greenland Ice Sheet Interaction in the Coupled Ice-sheet/Climate Model EC-EARTH - PISM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, S.; Madsen, M. S.; Rodehacke, C. B.; Svendsen, S. H.; Adalgeirsdottir, G.

2014-12-01

Recent observations show that the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass with an increasing speed during the past decades. Predicting the GrIS changes and their climate consequences relies on the understanding of the interaction of the GrIS with the climate system on both global and local scales, and requires climate model systems with an explicit and physically consistent ice sheet module. A fully coupled global climate model with a dynamical ice sheet model for the GrIS has recently been developed. The model system, EC-EARTH - PISM, consists of the EC-EARTH, an atmosphere, ocean and sea ice model system, and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). The coupling of PISM includes a modified surface physical parameterization in EC-EARTH adapted to the land ice surface over glaciated regions in Greenland. The PISM ice sheet model is forced with the surface mass balance (SMB) directly computed inside the EC-EARTH atmospheric module and accounting for the precipitation, the surface evaporation, and the melting of snow and ice over land ice. PISM returns the simulated basal melt, ice discharge and ice cover (extent and thickness) as boundary conditions to EC-EARTH. This coupled system is mass and energy conserving without being constrained by any anomaly correction or flux adjustment, and hence is suitable for investigation of ice sheet - climate feedbacks. Three multi-century experiments for warm climate scenarios under (1) the RCP85 climate forcing, (2) an abrupt 4xCO2 and (3) an idealized 1% per year CO2 increase are performed using the coupled model system. The experiments are compared with their counterparts of the standard CMIP5 simulations (without the interactive ice sheet) to evaluate the performance of the coupled system and to quantify the GrIS feedbacks. In particular, the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet under the warm climate and its impacts on the climate system are investigated. Freshwater fluxes from the Greenland ice sheet melt to the Arctic and North Atlantic basin and their influence on the ocean stratification and ocean circulation are analysed. The changes in the surface climate and the atmospheric circulation associated with the impact of the Greenland ice sheet changes are quantified. The interaction between the Greenland ice sheet and Arctic sea ice is also examined.

Orbital Noise in the Earth System is a Common Cause of Climate and Greenhouse-Gas Fluctuation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, H. S.; Kolenkiewicz, R.; Wade, C., Jr.; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The mismatch between fossil isotopic data and climate models known as the cool-tropic paradox implies that either the data are flawed or we understand very little about the climate models of greenhouse warming. Here we question the validity of the climate models on the scientific background of orbital noise in the Earth system. Our study shows that the insolation pulsation induced by orbital noise is the common cause of climate change and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane. In addition, we find that the intensity of the insolation pulses is dependent on the latitude of the Earth. Thus, orbital noise is the key to understanding the troubling paradox in climate models.

Modeling Earth's Climate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pallant, Amy; Lee, Hee-Sun; Pryputniewicz, Sara

2012-01-01

Systems thinking suggests that one can best understand a complex system by studying the interrelationships of its component parts rather than looking at the individual parts in isolation. With ongoing concern about the effects of climate change, using innovative materials to help students understand how Earth's systems connect with each other is…

A Generalized Stability Analysis of the AMOC in Earth System Models: Implication for Decadal Variability and Abrupt Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fedorov, Alexey V.

2015-01-14

The central goal of this research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as related to climate variability and abrupt climate change within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean models to comprehensive Earth system models. Generalized Stability Analysis, a method that quantifies the transient and asymptotic growth of perturbations in the system, is one of the main approaches used throughout this project. The topics we have explored range from physical mechanisms that control AMOC variability to the factors that determine AMOC predictability in the Earth systemmore » models, to the stability and variability of the AMOC in past climates.« less

Marine Aerosol Precursor Emissions for Earth System Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maltrud, Mathew Einar

2016-07-25

Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is generated by marine ecosystems and plays a major role in cloud formation over the ocean. Currently, Earth System Models use imposed flux of DMS from the ocean to the atmosphere that is independent of the climate state. We have added DMS as a prognostic variable to the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that depends on the distribution of phytoplankton species, and thus changes with climate.

2012 Community Earth System Model (CESM) Tutorial - Proposal to DOE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holland, Marika; Bailey, David A

2013-03-18

The Community Earth System Model (CESM) is a fully-coupled, global climate model that provides state-of-the-art computer simulations of the Earth's past, present, and future climate states. This document provides the agenda and list of participants for the conference. Web materials for all lectures and practical sessions available from: http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/events/tutorials/073012/ .

Exploratory Climate Data Visualization and Analysis Using DV3D and UVCDAT

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maxwell, Thomas

2012-01-01

Earth system scientists are being inundated by an explosion of data generated by ever-increasing resolution in both global models and remote sensors. Advanced tools for accessing, analyzing, and visualizing very large and complex climate data are required to maintain rapid progress in Earth system research. To meet this need, NASA, in collaboration with the Ultra-scale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UVCOAT) consortium, is developing exploratory climate data analysis and visualization tools which provide data analysis capabilities for the Earth System Grid (ESG). This paper describes DV3D, a UV-COAT package that enables exploratory analysis of climate simulation and observation datasets. OV3D provides user-friendly interfaces for visualization and analysis of climate data at a level appropriate for scientists. It features workflow inte rfaces, interactive 40 data exploration, hyperwall and stereo visualization, automated provenance generation, and parallel task execution. DV30's integration with CDAT's climate data management system (COMS) and other climate data analysis tools provides a wide range of high performance climate data analysis operations. DV3D expands the scientists' toolbox by incorporating a suite of rich new exploratory visualization and analysis methods for addressing the complexity of climate datasets.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Collins, William D.; Craig, Anthony P.; Truesdale, John E.

The integrated Earth System Model (iESM) has been developed as a new tool for pro- jecting the joint human/climate system. The iESM is based upon coupling an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) and an Earth System Model (ESM) into a common modeling in- frastructure. IAMs are the primary tool for describing the human–Earth system, including the sources of global greenhouse gases (GHGs) and short-lived species, land use and land cover change, and other resource-related drivers of anthropogenic climate change. ESMs are the primary scientific tools for examining the physical, chemical, and biogeochemical impacts of human-induced changes to the climate system. Themore » iESM project integrates the economic and human dimension modeling of an IAM and a fully coupled ESM within a sin- gle simulation system while maintaining the separability of each model if needed. Both IAM and ESM codes are developed and used by large communities and have been extensively applied in recent national and international climate assessments. By introducing heretofore- omitted feedbacks between natural and societal drivers, we can improve scientific under- standing of the human–Earth system dynamics. Potential applications include studies of the interactions and feedbacks leading to the timing, scale, and geographic distribution of emissions trajectories and other human influences, corresponding climate effects, and the subsequent impacts of a changing climate on human and natural systems. This paper de- scribes the formulation, requirements, implementation, testing, and resulting functionality of the first version of the iESM released to the global climate community.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Collins, W. D.; Craig, A. P.; Truesdale, J. E.

The integrated Earth system model (iESM) has been developed as a new tool for projecting the joint human/climate system. The iESM is based upon coupling an integrated assessment model (IAM) and an Earth system model (ESM) into a common modeling infrastructure. IAMs are the primary tool for describing the human–Earth system, including the sources of global greenhouse gases (GHGs) and short-lived species (SLS), land use and land cover change (LULCC), and other resource-related drivers of anthropogenic climate change. ESMs are the primary scientific tools for examining the physical, chemical, and biogeochemical impacts of human-induced changes to the climate system. Themore » iESM project integrates the economic and human-dimension modeling of an IAM and a fully coupled ESM within a single simulation system while maintaining the separability of each model if needed. Both IAM and ESM codes are developed and used by large communities and have been extensively applied in recent national and international climate assessments. By introducing heretofore-omitted feedbacks between natural and societal drivers, we can improve scientific understanding of the human–Earth system dynamics. Potential applications include studies of the interactions and feedbacks leading to the timing, scale, and geographic distribution of emissions trajectories and other human influences, corresponding climate effects, and the subsequent impacts of a changing climate on human and natural systems. This paper describes the formulation, requirements, implementation, testing, and resulting functionality of the first version of the iESM released to the global climate community.« less

Promoting Climate Literacy and Conceptual Understanding among In-service Secondary Science Teachers requires an Epistemological Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, D.; Forbes, C.; Roehrig, G.; Chandler, M. A.

2017-12-01

Promoting climate literacy among in-service science teachers necessitates an understanding of fundamental concepts about the Earth's climate System (USGCRP, 2009). Very few teachers report having any formal instruction in climate science (Plutzer et al., 2016), therefore, rather simple conceptions of climate systems and their variability exist, which has implications for students' science learning (Francies et al., 1993; Libarkin, 2005; Rebich, 2005). This study uses the inferences from a NASA Innovations in Climate Education (NICE) teacher professional development program (CYCLES) to establish the necessity for developing an epistemological perspective among teachers. In CYCLES, 19 middle and high school (male=8, female=11) teachers were assessed for their understanding of global climate change (GCC). A qualitative analysis of their concept maps and an alignment of their conceptions with the Essential Principles of Climate Literacy (NOAA, 2009) demonstrated that participants emphasized on EPCL 1, 3, 6, 7 focusing on the Earth system, atmospheric, social and ecological impacts of GCC. However, EPCL 4 (variability in climate) and 5 (data-based observations and modeling) were least represented and emphasized upon. Thus, participants' descriptions about global climatic patterns were often factual rather than incorporating causation (why the temperatures are increasing) and/or correlation (describing what other factors might influence global temperatures). Therefore, engaging with epistemic dimensions of climate science to understand the processes, tools, and norms through which climate scientists study the Earth's climate system (Huxter et al., 2013) is critical for developing an in-depth conceptual understanding of climate. CLiMES (Climate Modeling and Epistemology of Science), a NSF initiative proposes to use EzGCM (EzGlobal Climate Model) to engage students and teachers in designing and running simulations, performing data processing activities, and analyzing computational models to develop their own evidence-based claims about the Earth's climate system. We describe how epistemological investigations can be conducted using EzGCM to bring the scientific process and authentic climate science practice to middle and high school classrooms.

Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Project Strategy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bader, D.

The E3SM project will assert and maintain an international scientific leadership position in the development of Earth system and climate models at the leading edge of scientific knowledge and computational capabilities. With its collaborators, it will demonstrate its leadership by using these models to achieve the goal of designing, executing, and analyzing climate and Earth system simulations that address the most critical scientific questions for the nation and DOE.

Climate Sensitivity in the Anthropocene

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Previdi, M.; Liepert, B. G.; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Hansen, J.; Beerling, D. J.; Broccoli, A. J.; Frolking, S.; Galloway, J. N.; Heimann, M.; LeQuere, C.;

Climate, ecosystems, and planetary futures: The challenge to predict life in Earth system models.

PubMed

Bonan, Gordon B; Doney, Scott C

2018-02-02

Many global change stresses on terrestrial and marine ecosystems affect not only ecosystem services that are essential to humankind, but also the trajectory of future climate by altering energy and mass exchanges with the atmosphere. Earth system models, which simulate terrestrial and marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, offer a common framework for ecological research related to climate processes; analyses of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation; and climate change mitigation. They provide an opportunity to move beyond physical descriptors of atmospheric and oceanic states to societally relevant quantities such as wildfire risk, habitat loss, water availability, and crop, fishery, and timber yields. To achieve this, the science of climate prediction must be extended to a more multifaceted Earth system prediction that includes the biosphere and its resources. Copyright © 2018, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Our Changing Climate: A Brand New Way to Study Climate Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I.; Nugnes, K. A.; Mills, E. W.

2014-12-01

Earth's climate is inherently variable, but is currently changing at rates unprecedented in recent Earth history. Human activity plays a major role in this change and is projected to do so well into the future. This is the stance taken in Our Changing Climate, the brand new climate science ebook from the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Our Changing Climate investigates Earth's climate system, explores humans' impact on it, and identifies actions needed in response to climate change. Released in August 2014, Our Changing Climate is the result of a year's worth of intensive research and writing, incorporating the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the Third National Climate Assessment. To encourage additional exploration of climate science information, scientific literature, from which chapter content was derived, is cited at the conclusion of each chapter. In addition, Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive information related to various topics. For example, a Topic In Depth in Chapter 11 describes the effect of climate extremes on ranching enterprises in Nebraska. Climate science is multi-disciplinary and therefore Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics. From understanding basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate Earth's climate system to examining the psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial, the AMS believes that a multi-disciplinary approach is the most effective way to increase climate literacy. Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course which is intended for undergraduate-level students. Other course materials include an eInvestigations Manual and access to the RealTime Climate Portal, both of which provide weekly activities corresponding to that week's chapter content. The RealTime Climate Portal also has links to climate data as well as societal interactions and climate policy websites to spur further interest. Faculty support materials are also provided. AMS Climate Studies has been licensed by 130 institutions since Fall 2010. Our Changing Climate reveals the impact that each of us has on the climate. With this understanding come choices and actions for a more sustainable future.

Low degree Earth's gravity coefficients determined from different space geodetic observations and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wińska, Małgorzata; Nastula, Jolanta

2017-04-01

Large scale mass redistribution and its transport within the Earth system causes changes in the Earth's rotation in space, gravity field and Earth's ellipsoid shape. These changes are observed in the ΔC21, ΔS21, and ΔC20 spherical harmonics gravity coefficients, which are proportional to the mass load-induced Earth rotational excitations. In this study, linear trend, decadal, inter-annual, and seasonal variations of low degree spherical harmonics coefficients of Earth's gravity field, determined from different space geodetic techniques, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), satellite laser ranging (SLR), Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), Earth rotation, and climate models, are examined. In this way, the contribution of each measurement technique to interpreting the low degree surface mass density of the Earth is shown. Especially, we evaluate an usefulness of several climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) to determine the low degree Earth's gravity coefficients using GRACE satellite observations. To do that, Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) changes from several CMIP5 climate models are determined and then these simulated data are compared with the GRACE observations. Spherical harmonics ΔC21, ΔS21, and ΔC20 changes are calculated as the sum of atmosphere and ocean mass effect (GAC values) taken from GRACE and a land surface hydrological estimate from the selected CMIP5 climate models. Low degree Stokes coefficients of the surface mass density determined from GRACE, SLR, GNSS, Earth rotation measurements and climate models are compared to each other in order to assess their consistency. The comparison is done by using different types of statistical and signal processing methods.

The Future of Planetary Climate Modeling and Weather Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Del Genio, A. D.; Domagal-Goldman, S. D.; Kiang, N. Y.; Kopparapu, R. K.; Schmidt, G. A.; Sohl, L. E.

2017-01-01

Modeling of planetary climate and weather has followed the development of tools for studying Earth, with lags of a few years. Early Earth climate studies were performed with 1-dimensionalradiative-convective models, which were soon fol-lowed by similar models for the climates of Mars and Venus and eventually by similar models for exoplan-ets. 3-dimensional general circulation models (GCMs) became common in Earth science soon after and within several years were applied to the meteorology of Mars, but it was several decades before a GCM was used to simulate extrasolar planets. Recent trends in Earth weather and and climate modeling serve as a useful guide to how modeling of Solar System and exoplanet weather and climate will evolve in the coming decade.

Climate change likely to favor shift toward warmer climate states of the Pliocene and Eocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, K. D.; Williams, J. W.

2017-12-01

As the world warms due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, the climate system is moving toward a state without precedent in the historical record. Various past climate states have been proposed as potential analogues or model systems for the coming decades, including the early to middle Holocene, the last interglacial, the middle Pliocene, and the early Eocene. However, until now, such comparisons have been qualitative. To compare these time periods to the projected climate states for the 21st and 22nd centuries, we conduct a climate similarity analysis using the standardized Euclidean distance metric (SED) and seasonal means of surface air temperature and precipitation. We make this future-to-past comparison using 30-year mean climatologies, for every decade between 2020 and 2280 AD (27 total comparisons). The list of past earth system states includes the historical period (1940-1970 AD), a pre-industrial control (ca. 1850), the middle Holocene (ca. 6 ka), the last glacial maximum (ca. 21 ka), the last interglacial (ca. 125 ka), the middle Pliocene (ca. 3 Ma), and the early Eocene (ca. 50-55 Ma). To reduce uncertainties resulting from choice of earth system model, analyses are based on simulations from three earth system models (HadCM, CCSM, NASA/GISS Model-E), using in part experiments from PMIP2, PMIP3/CMIP5, EoMIP, and PlioMIP. Results are presented for two representative concentration pathways (RCP's 4.5, 8.5). By 2050 AD, the most common past climate analogue is sourced from the Pliocene for RCP 8.5, while by 2190 AD, the Eocene becomes the source of the most common past climate analogue. For RCP 4.5, in which radiative forcings stabilize this century, the Pliocene becomes the most important past climate analogue by 2100 AD. Low latitude climates are the first to most closely resemble these past earth warm periods. The mid-latitudes then follow this pattern by the end of the 22nd century. Although no past state of the earth system is a perfect analogue for the Anthropocene, these analyses clarify the similarities between the expected climates of the future and the geological climates of the past.

Climate Literacy: STEM and Climate Change Education and Remote Sensing Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reddy, S. R.

2015-12-01

NASA Innovations in Climate Education (NICE) is a competitive project to promote climate and Earth system science literacy and seeks to increase the access of underrepresented minority groups to science careers and educational opportunities. A three year funding was received from NASA to partnership with JSU and MSU under cooperative agreement "Strengthening Global Climate Change education through Remote Sensing Application in Coastal Environment using NASA Satellite Data and Models". The goal is to increase the number of highschool and undergraduate students at Jackson State University, a Historically Black University, who are prepared to pursue higher academic degrees and careers in STEM fields. A five Saturday course/workshop was held during March/April 2015 at JSU, focusing on historical and technical concepts of math, enginneering, technology and atmosphere and climate change and remote sensing technology and applications to weather and climate. Nine students from meteorology, biology, industrial technology and computer science/engineering of JSU and 19 high scool students from Jackson Public Schools participated in the course/workshop. The lecture topics include: introduction to remote sensing and GIS, introduction to atmospheric science, math and engineering, climate, introduction to NASA innovations in climate education, introduction to remote sensing technology for bio-geosphere, introduction to earth system science, principles of paleoclimatology and global change, daily weather briefing, satellite image interpretation and so on. In addition to lectures, lab sessions were held for hand-on experiences for remote sensing applications to atmosphere, biosphere, earth system science and climate change using ERDAS/ENVI GIS software and satellite tools. Field trip to Barnett reservoir and National weather Service (NWS) was part of the workshop. Basics of Earth System Science is a non-mathematical introductory course designed for high school seniors, high school teachers and undergraduate students who may or may not have adequate exposure to fundamental concepts of the key components of the modern earth system and their interactions. This is an online course that will be delivered using Blackboard platform available at Jackson State University.

CEOS SEO and GISS Meeting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Killough, Brian; Stover, Shelley

2008-01-01

The Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) provides a brief to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) regarding the CEOS Systems Engineering Office (SEO) and current work on climate requirements and analysis. A "system framework" is provided for the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). SEO climate-related tasks are outlined including the assessment of essential climate variable (ECV) parameters, use of the "systems framework" to determine relevant informational products and science models and the performance of assessments and gap analyses of measurements and missions for each ECV. Climate requirements, including instruments and missions, measurements, knowledge and models, and decision makers, are also outlined. These requirements would establish traceability from instruments to products and services allowing for benefit evaluation of instruments and measurements. Additionally, traceable climate requirements would provide a better understanding of global climate models.

Climate Science: How Earth System Models are Reshaping the Science Policy Interface.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex

2015-01-01

This talk is oriented at a general audience including the largest French utility company, and will describe the basics of climate change before moving into emissions scenarios and agricultural impacts that we can test with our earth system models and impacts models.

The computational future for climate and Earth system models: on the path to petaflop and beyond.

PubMed

Washington, Warren M; Buja, Lawrence; Craig, Anthony

2009-03-13

The development of the climate and Earth system models has had a long history, starting with the building of individual atmospheric, ocean, sea ice, land vegetation, biogeochemical, glacial and ecological model components. The early researchers were much aware of the long-term goal of building the Earth system models that would go beyond what is usually included in the climate models by adding interactive biogeochemical interactions. In the early days, the progress was limited by computer capability, as well as by our knowledge of the physical and chemical processes. Over the last few decades, there has been much improved knowledge, better observations for validation and more powerful supercomputer systems that are increasingly meeting the new challenges of comprehensive models. Some of the climate model history will be presented, along with some of the successes and difficulties encountered with present-day supercomputer systems.

Earth Radiation Budget Science, 1978. [conferences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

An earth radiation budget satellite system planned in order to understand climate on various temporal and spatial scales is considered. Topics discussed include: climate modeling, climate diagnostics, radiation modeling, radiation variability and correlation studies, cloudiness and the radiation budget, and radiation budget and related measurements in 1985 and beyond.

Linking the Observation of Essential Variables to Societal Benefits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sylak-Glassman, E.

2017-12-01

Different scientific communities have established sets of commonly agreed upon essential variables to help coordinate data collection in a variety of Earth observation areas. As an example, the World Meteorological Organization Global Climate Observing System has identified 50 Essential Climate Variables (ECVs), such as sea-surface temperature and carbon dioxide, which are required to monitoring the climate and detect and attribute climate change. In addition to supporting climate science, measuring these ECVs deliver many types of societal benefits, ranging from disaster mitigation to agricultural productivity to human health. While communicating the value in maintaining and improving observational records for these variables has been a challenge, quantifying how the measurement of these ECVs results in the delivery of many different societal benefits may help support their continued measurement. The 2016 National Earth Observation Assessment (EOA 2016) quantified the impact of individual Earth observation systems, sensors, networks, and surveys (or Earth observation systems, for short) on the achievement of 217 Federal objectives in 13 societal benefit areas (SBAs). This study will demonstrate the use of the EOA 2016 dataset to show the different Federal objectives and SBAs that are impacted by the Earth observation systems used to measure ECVs. Describing how the measurements from these Earth observation systems are used not only to maintain the climate record but also to meet additional Federal objectives may help articulate the continued measurement of the ECVs. This study will act as a pilot for the use of the EOA 2016 dataset to map between the measurements required to observe additional sets of variables, such as the Essential Ocean Variables and Essential Biodiversity Variables, and the ability to achieve a variety of societal benefits.

The UK Earth System Model project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Yongming

2016-04-01

In this talk we will describe the development and current status of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM). This project is a NERC/Met Office collaboration and has two objectives; to develop and apply a world-leading Earth System Model, and to grow a community of UK Earth System Model scientists. We are building numerical models that include all the key components of the global climate system, and contain the important process interactions between global biogeochemistry, atmospheric chemistry and the physical climate system. UKESM will be used to make key CMIP6 simulations as well as long-time (e.g. millennium) simulations, large ensemble experiments and investigating a range of future carbon emission scenarios.

Understanding Global Change: Frameworks and Models for Teaching Systems Thinking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bean, J. R.; Mitchell, K.; Zoehfeld, K.; Oshry, A.; Menicucci, A. J.; White, L. D.; Marshall, C. R.

2017-12-01

The scientific and education communities must impart to teachers, students, and the public an understanding of how the various factors that drive climate and global change operate, and why the rates and magnitudes of these changes related to human perturbation of Earth system processes today are cause for deep concern. Even though effective educational modules explaining components of the Earth and climate system exist, interdisciplinary learning tools are necessary to conceptually link the causes and consequences of global changes. To address this issue, the Understanding Global Change Project at the University of California Museum of Paleontology (UCMP) at UC Berkeley developed an interdisciplinary framework that organizes global change topics into three categories: (1) causes of climate change, both human and non-human (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, Earth's tilt and orbit), (2) Earth system processes that shape the way the Earth works (e.g., Earth's energy budget, water cycle), and (3) the measurable changes in the Earth system (e.g., temperature, precipitation, ocean acidification). To facilitate student learning about the Earth as a dynamic, interacting system, a website will provide visualizations of Earth system models and written descriptions of how each framework topic is conceptually linked to other components of the framework. These visualizations and textual summarizations of relationships and feedbacks in the Earth system are a unique and crucial contribution to science communication and education, informed by a team of interdisciplinary scientists and educators. The system models are also mechanisms by which scientists can communicate how their own work informs our understanding of the Earth system. Educators can provide context and relevancy for authentic datasets and concurrently can assess student understanding of the interconnectedness of global change phenomena. The UGC resources will be available through a web-based platform and scalable professional development programming to facilitate systemic changes in the teaching and learning about climate and global change. We are establishing a diverse community of scientists and educators across the country that are using these tools, and plan to create local networks supported by UGC staff and partners.

Climate Information Responding to User Needs (CIRUN)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busalacchi, A. J.

2009-05-01

For the past several decades many different US agencies have been involved in collecting Earth observations, e.g., NASA, NOAA, DoD, USGS, USDA. More recently, the US has led the international effort to design a Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). Yet, there has been little substantive progress at the synthesis and integration of the various research and operational, space-based and in situ, observations. Similarly, access to such a range of observations across the atmosphere, ocean, and land surface remains fragmented. With respect to prediction of the Earth System, the US has not developed a comprehensive strategy. For climate, the US (e.g., NOAA, NASA, DoE) has taken a two-track strategy. At the more immediate time scale, coupled ocean-atmosphere models of the physical climate system have built upon the tradition of daily numerical weather prediction in order to extend the forecast window to seasonal to interannual times scales. At the century time scale, the nascent development of Earth System models, combining components of the physical climate system with biogeochemical cycles, are being used to provide future climate change projections in response to anticipated greenhouse gas forcings. Between these to two approaches to prediction lies a key deficiency of interest to decision makers, especially as it pertains to adaptation, i.e., deterministic prediction of the Earth System at time scales from days to decades with spatial scales from global to regional. One of many obstacles to be overcome is the design of present day observation and prediction products based on user needs. To date, most of such products have evolved from the technology and research "push" rather than the user or stakeholder "pull". In the future as planning proceeds for a national climate service, emphasis must be given to a more coordinated approach in which stakeholders' needs help design future Earth System observational and prediction products, and similarly, such products need to be tailored to provide decision support.

3rd Annual Earth System Grid Federation and 3rd Annual Earth System Grid Federation and Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools Face-to-Face Meeting Report December 2013

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Dean N.

The climate and weather data science community gathered December 3–5, 2013, at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in Livermore, California, for the third annual Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and Ultra-scale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT) Face-to-Face (F2F) Meeting, which was hosted by the Department of Energy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the European Infrastructure for the European Network of Earth System Modelling, and the Australian Department of Education. Both ESGF and UV-CDAT are global collaborations designed to develop a new generation of open-source software infrastructure that provides distributed access and analysis to observed andmore » simulated data from the climate and weather communities. The tools and infrastructure developed under these international multi-agency collaborations are critical to understanding extreme weather conditions and long-term climate change, while the F2F meetings help to build a stronger climate and weather data science community and stronger federated software infrastructure. The 2013 F2F meeting determined requirements for existing and impending national and international community projects; enhancements needed for data distribution, analysis, and visualization infrastructure; and standards and resources needed for better collaborations.« less

Science Writers' Guide to TERRA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2000-01-01

The launch of NASA's Terra spacecraft marks a new era of comprehensive monitoring of the Earth's atmosphere, oceans, and continents from a single space-based platform. Data from the five Terra instruments will create continuous, long-term records of the state of the land, oceans, and atmosphere. Together with data from other satellite systems launched by NASA and other countries, Terra will inaugurate a new self-consistent data record that will be gathered over the next 15 years. The science objectives of NASAs Earth Observing System (EOS) program are to provide global observations and scientific understanding of land cover change and global productivity, climate variability and change, natural hazards, and atmospheric ozone. Observations by the Terra instruments will: provide the first global and seasonal measurements of the Earth system, including such critical functions as biological productivity of the land and oceans, snow and ice, surface temperature, clouds, water vapor, and land cover; improve our ability to detect human impacts on the Earth system and climate, identify the "fingerprint" of human activity on climate, and predict climate change by using the new global observations in climate models; help develop technologies for disaster prediction, characterization, and risk reduction from wildfires, volcanoes, floods, and droughts, and start long-term monitoring of global climate change and environmental change.

The NASA Earth Science Flight Program: an update

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neeck, Steven P.

2015-10-01

Earth's changing environment impacts every aspect of life on our planet and climate change has profound implications on society. Studying Earth as a single complex system is essential to understanding the causes and consequences of climate change and other global environmental concerns. NASA's Earth Science Division (ESD) shapes an interdisciplinary view of Earth, exploring interactions among the atmosphere, oceans, ice sheets, land surface interior, and life itself. This enables scientists to measure global and climate changes and to inform decisions by government, other organizations, and people in the United States and around the world. The data collected and results generated are accessible to other agencies and organizations to improve the products and services they provide, including air quality indices, disaster prediction and response, agricultural yield projections, and aviation safety. ESD's Flight Program provides the space based observing systems and infrastructure for mission operations and scientific data processing and distribution that support NASA's Earth science research and modeling activities. The Flight Program currently has 21 operating Earth observing space missions, including the recently launched Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, and the International Space Station (ISS) RapidSCAT and Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS) instruments. The ESD has 22 more missions and instruments planned for launch over the next decade. These include first and second tier missions from the 2007 Earth Science Decadal Survey, Climate Continuity missions and selected instruments to assure availability of key climate data sets, operational missions to ensure sustained land imaging provided by the Landsat system, and small-sized competitively selected orbital missions and instrument missions of opportunity belonging to the Earth Venture (EV) Program. Some examples are the NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR), Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT), ICESat-2, SAGE III on ISS, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow On (GRACE FO), Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO), Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS), ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS), and Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) Lidar missions. An overview of plans and current status will be presented.

The NASA Earth Science Program and Small Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neeck, Steven P.

2015-01-01

Earth's changing environment impacts every aspect of life on our planet and climate change has profound implications on society. Studying Earth as a single complex system is essential to understanding the causes and consequences of climate change and other global environmental concerns. NASA's Earth Science Division (ESD) shapes an interdisciplinary view of Earth, exploring interactions among the atmosphere, oceans, ice sheets, land surface interior, and life itself. This enables scientists to measure global and climate changes and to inform decisions by Government, other organizations, and people in the United States and around the world. The data collected and results generated are accessible to other agencies and organizations to improve the products and services they provide, including air quality indices, disaster prediction and response, agricultural yield projections, and aviation safety. ESD's Flight Program provides the spacebased observing systems and supporting infrastructure for mission operations and scientific data processing and distribution that support NASA's Earth science research and modeling activities. The Flight Program currently has 21 operating Earth observing space missions, including the recently launched Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, and the International Space Station (ISS) RapidSCAT and Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS) instruments. The ESD has 22 more missions and instruments planned for launch over the next decade. These include first and second tier missions from the 2007 Earth Science Decadal Survey, Climate Continuity missions to assure availability of key climate data sets, and small-sized competitively selected orbital missions and instrument missions of opportunity belonging to the Earth Venture (EV) Program. Small satellites (500 kg or less) are critical contributors to these current and future satellite missions. Some examples are the aforementioned Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow On (GRACE FO), and the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) microsatellite constellation. Small satellites also support ESD in space validation and risk reduction of enabling technologies (components and systems). The status of the ESD Flight Program and the role of small satellites will be discussed.

GRACE, time-varying gravity, Earth system dynamics and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wouters, B.; Bonin, J. A.; Chambers, D. P.; Riva, R. E. M.; Sasgen, I.; Wahr, J.

2014-11-01

Continuous observations of temporal variations in the Earth's gravity field have recently become available at an unprecedented resolution of a few hundreds of kilometers. The gravity field is a product of the Earth's mass distribution, and these data—provided by the satellites of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE)—can be used to study the exchange of mass both within the Earth and at its surface. Since the launch of the mission in 2002, GRACE data has evolved from being an experimental measurement needing validation from ground truth, to a respected tool for Earth scientists representing a fixed bound on the total change and is now an important tool to help unravel the complex dynamics of the Earth system and climate change. In this review, we present the mission concept and its theoretical background, discuss the data and give an overview of the major advances GRACE has provided in Earth science, with a focus on hydrology, solid Earth sciences, glaciology and oceanography.

GRACE, time-varying gravity, Earth system dynamics and climate change.

PubMed

Wouters, B; Bonin, J A; Chambers, D P; Riva, R E M; Sasgen, I; Wahr, J

2014-11-01

Continuous observations of temporal variations in the Earth's gravity field have recently become available at an unprecedented resolution of a few hundreds of kilometers. The gravity field is a product of the Earth's mass distribution, and these data-provided by the satellites of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE)-can be used to study the exchange of mass both within the Earth and at its surface. Since the launch of the mission in 2002, GRACE data has evolved from being an experimental measurement needing validation from ground truth, to a respected tool for Earth scientists representing a fixed bound on the total change and is now an important tool to help unravel the complex dynamics of the Earth system and climate change. In this review, we present the mission concept and its theoretical background, discuss the data and give an overview of the major advances GRACE has provided in Earth science, with a focus on hydrology, solid Earth sciences, glaciology and oceanography.

USGS global change research

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1995-01-01

The Earth's global environment--its interrelated climate, land, oceans, fresh water, atmospheric and ecological systems-has changed continually throughout Earth history. Human activities are having ever-increasing effects on these systems. Sustaining our environment as population and demands for resources increase requires a sound understanding of the causes and cycles of natural change and the effects of human activities on the Earth's environmental systems. The U.S. Global Change Research Program was authorized by Congress in 1989 to provide the scientific understanding necessary to develop national and international policies concerning global environmental issues, particularly global climate change. The program addresses questions such as: what factors determine global climate; have humans already begun to change the global climate; will the climate of the future be very different; what will be the effects of climate change; and how much confidence do we have in our predictions? Through understanding, we can improve our capability to predict change, reduce the adverse effects of human activities, and plan strategies for adapting to natural and human-induced environmental change.

Effects of primitive photosynthesis on Earth's early climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozaki, Kazumi; Tajika, Eiichi; Hong, Peng K.; Nakagawa, Yusuke; Reinhard, Christopher T.

2018-01-01

The evolution of different forms of photosynthetic life has profoundly altered the activity level of the biosphere, radically reshaping the composition of Earth's oceans and atmosphere over time. However, the mechanistic impacts of a primitive photosynthetic biosphere on Earth's early atmospheric chemistry and climate are poorly understood. Here, we use a global redox balance model to explore the biogeochemical and climatological effects of different forms of primitive photosynthesis. We find that a hybrid ecosystem of H2-based and Fe2+-based anoxygenic photoautotrophs—organisms that perform photosynthesis without producing oxygen—gives rise to a strong nonlinear amplification of Earth's methane (CH4) cycle, and would thus have represented a critical component of Earth's early climate system before the advent of oxygenic photosynthesis. Using a Monte Carlo approach, we find that a hybrid photosynthetic biosphere widens the range of geochemical conditions that allow for warm climate states well beyond either of these metabolic processes acting in isolation. Our results imply that the Earth's early climate was governed by a novel and poorly explored set of regulatory feedbacks linking the anoxic biosphere and the coupled H, C and Fe cycles. We suggest that similar processes should be considered when assessing the potential for sustained habitability on Earth-like planets with reducing atmospheres.

Understanding climate: A strategy for climate modeling and predictability research, 1985-1995

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thiele, O. (Editor); Schiffer, R. A. (Editor)

1985-01-01

The emphasis of the NASA strategy for climate modeling and predictability research is on the utilization of space technology to understand the processes which control the Earth's climate system and it's sensitivity to natural and man-induced changes and to assess the possibilities for climate prediction on time scales of from about two weeks to several decades. Because the climate is a complex multi-phenomena system, which interacts on a wide range of space and time scales, the diversity of scientific problems addressed requires a hierarchy of models along with the application of modern empirical and statistical techniques which exploit the extensive current and potential future global data sets afforded by space observations. Observing system simulation experiments, exploiting these models and data, will also provide the foundation for the future climate space observing system, e.g., Earth observing system (EOS), 1985; Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) North, et al. NASA, 1984.

An Overview of the Future Development of Climate and Earth System Models for Scientific and Policy Use (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Washington, W. M.

2010-12-01

The development of climate and earth system models has been regarded primarily as the making of scientific tools to study the complex nature of the Earth’s climate. These models have a long history starting with very simple physical models based on fundamental physics in the 1960s and over time they have become much more complex with atmospheric, ocean, sea ice, land/vegetation, biogeochemical, glacial and ecological components. The policy use aspects of these models did not start in the 1960s and 1970s as decision making tools but were used to answer fundamental scientific questions such as what happens when the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration increases or is doubled. They gave insights into the various interactions and were extensively compared with observations. It was realized that models of the earlier time periods could only give first order answers to many of the fundamental policy questions. As societal concerns about climate change rose, the policy questions of anthropogenic climate change became better defined; they were mostly concerned with the climate impacts of increasing greenhouse gases, aerosols, and land cover change. In the late 1980s, the United Nations set up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to perform assessments of the published literature. Thus, the development of climate and Earth system models became intimately linked to the need to not only improve our scientific understanding but also answering fundamental policy questions. In order to meet this challenge, the models became more complex and realistic so that they could address these policy oriented science questions such as rising sea level. The presentation will discuss the past and future development of global climate and earth system models for science and policy purposes. Also to be discussed is their interactions with economic integrated assessment models, regional and specialized models such as river transport or ecological components. As an example of one development pathway, the NSF/Department of Energy supported Community Climate System and Earth System Models will be featured in the presentation. Computational challenges will also part of the discussion.

Welcome to NASA's Earth Science Enterprise: Educational CD-ROM Activity Supplement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1999-01-01

Since its inception in 1958, NASA has been studying the Earth and its changing environment by observing the atmosphere, oceans, land, ice, and snow, and their influence on weather and climate. We now understand that the key to gaining a better understanding of the global environment is exploring how the Earth's systems of air, land, water, and life interact with each other. This approach-called Earth Systems Science-blends together fields like meteorology, oceanography, geology, and biology. In 1991, NASA launched a more comprehensive program to study the Earth as an integrated environmental system. They call it NASA's Earth Science Enterprise. A major component of the Earth Science Enterprise is the Earth Observing System (EOS). EOS is series of satellites to be launched over the next two decades that will be used to intensively study the Earth, with the hopes of expanding our under- standing of how natural processes affect us, and how we might be affecting them. Such studies will yield improved weather forecasts, tools for managing agriculture and forests, information for fishermen and local planners, and, eventually, the ability to predict how the climate will change in the future. Today's program is laying the foundation for long-term environmental and climate monitoring and prediction. Potentially, this will provide the understanding needed in the future to support difficult decisions regarding the Earth's environment.

Earth System Monitoring, Introduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orcutt, John

This section provides sensing and data collection methodologies, as well as an understanding of Earth's climate parameters and natural and man-made phenomena, to support a scientific assessment of the Earth system as a whole, and its response to natural and human-induced changes. The coverage ranges from climate change factors and extreme weather and fires to oil spill tracking and volcanic eruptions. This serves as a basis to enable improved prediction and response to climate change, weather, and natural hazards as well as dissemination of the data and conclusions. The data collection systems include satellite remote sensing, aerial surveys, and land- and ocean-based monitoring stations. Our objective in this treatise is to provide a significant portion of the scientific and engineering basis of Earth system monitoring and to provide this in 17 detailed articles or chapters written at a level for use by university students through practicing professionals. The reader is also directed to the closely related sections on Ecological Systems, Introduction and also Climate Change Modeling Methodology, Introduction as well as Climate Change Remediation, Introduction to. For ease of use by students, each article begins with a glossary of terms, while at an average length of 25 print pages each, sufficient detail is presented for use by professionals in government, universities, and industries. The chapters are individually summarized below.

NASA's Earth Observing System: The Transition from Climate Monitoring to Climate Change Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

King, Michael D.; Herring, David D.

1998-01-01

Earth's 4.5 billion year history is a study in change. Natural geological forces have been rearranging the surface features and climatic conditions of our planet since its beginning. There is scientific evidence that some of these natural changes have not only led to mass extinctions of species (e.g., dinosaurs), but have also severely impacted human civilizations. For instance, there is evidence that a relatively sudden climate change caused a 300-year drought that contributed to the downfall of Akkadia, one of the most powerful empires in the Middle-East region around 2200 BC. More recently, the "little ice age" from 1200-1400 AD forced the Vikings to abandon Greenland when temperatures there dropped by about 1.5 C, rendering it too difficult to grow enough crops to sustain the population. Today, there is compelling scientific evidence that human activities have attained the magnitude of a geological force and are speeding up the rate of global change. For example, carbon dioxide levels have risen 30 percent since the industrial revolution and about 40 percent of the world's land surface has been transformed by humans. We don't understand the cause-and-effect relationships among Earth's land, ocean, and atmosphere well enough to predict what, if any, impacts these rapid changes will have on future climate conditions. We need to make many measurements all over the world, over a long period of time, in order to assemble the information needed to construct accurate computer models that will enable us to forecast climate change. In 1988, the Earth System Sciences Committee, sponsored by NASA, issued a report calling for an integrated, long-term strategy for measuring the vital signs of Earth's climate system. The report urged that the measurements must all be intimately coupled with focused process studies, they must facilitate development of Earth system models, and they must be stored in an information system that ensures open access to consistent, long-term data. This committee emphasized that the only feasible way to collect these consistent, long-term data is through the use of space-based Earth "remote sensors" (instruments that can measure from a distance things like temperature).

Understanding the Role of Biology in the Global Environment: NASA'S Mission to Planet Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Townsend, William F.

1996-01-01

NASA has long used the unique perspective of space as a means of expanding our understanding of how the Earth's environment functions. In particular, the linkages between land, air, water, and life-the elements of the Earth system-are a focus for NASA's Mission to Planet Earth. This approach, called Earth system science, blends together fields like meteorology, biology, oceanography, and atmospheric science. Mission to Planet Earth uses observations from satellites, aircraft, balloons, and ground researchers as the basis for analysis of the elements of the Earth system, the interactions between those elements, and possible changes over the coming years and decades. This information is helping scientists improve our understanding of how natural processes affect us and how we might be affecting them. Such studies will yield improved weather forecasts, tools for managing agriculture and forests, information for fishermen and local planners, and, eventually, an enhanced ability to predict how the climate will change in the future. NASA has designed Mission to Planet Earth to focus on five primary themes: Land Cover and Land Use Change; Seasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction; Natural Hazards; Long-Term Climate Variability; and Atmosphere Ozone.

Climate Literacy: Supporting Teacher Professional Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haddad, N.; Ledley, T. S.; Dunlap, C.; Bardar, E.; Youngman, B.; Ellins, K. K.; McNeal, K. S.; Libarkin, J.

2012-12-01

Confronting the Challenges of Climate Literacy (CCCL) is an NSF-funded (DRK-12) project that includes curriculum development, teacher professional development, teacher leadership development, and research on student learning, all directed at high school teachers and students. The project's evaluation efforts inform and guide all major components of the project. The research effort addresses the question of what interventions are most effective in helping high school students grasp the complexities of the Earth system and climate processes, which occur over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The curriculum unit includes three distinct but related modules: Climate and the Cryosphere; Climate, Weather, and the Biosphere; and Climate and the Carbon Cycle. Climate-related themes that cut across all three modules include the Earth system, with the complexities of its positive and negative feedback loops; the range of temporal and spatial scales at which climate, weather, and other Earth system processes occur; and the recurring question, "How do we know what we know about Earth's past and present climate?" which addresses proxy data and scientific instrumentation. The professional development component of the project includes online science resources to support the teaching of the curriculum modules, summer workshops for high school teachers, and a support system for developing the teacher leaders who plan and implement those summer workshops. When completed, the project will provide a model high school curriculum with online support for implementing teachers and a cadre of leaders who can continue to introduce new teachers to the resource. This presentation will introduce the curriculum and the university partnerships that are key to the project's success, and describe how the project addresses the challenge of helping teachers develop their understanding of climate science and their ability to convey climate-related concepts articulated in the Next Generation Science Standards to their students. We will also describe the professional development and support system to develop teacher leaders and explain some of the challenges that accompany this approach of developing teacher leaders in the area of climate literacy.

Hydrologic resilience and Amazon productivity.

PubMed

Ahlström, Anders; Canadell, Josep G; Schurgers, Guy; Wu, Minchao; Berry, Joseph A; Guan, Kaiyu; Jackson, Robert B

2017-08-30

The Amazon rainforest is disproportionately important for global carbon storage and biodiversity. The system couples the atmosphere and land, with moist forest that depends on convection to sustain gross primary productivity and growth. Earth system models that estimate future climate and vegetation show little agreement in Amazon simulations. Here we show that biases in internally generated climate, primarily precipitation, explain most of the uncertainty in Earth system model results; models, empirical data and theory converge when precipitation biases are accounted for. Gross primary productivity, above-ground biomass and tree cover align on a hydrological relationship with a breakpoint at ~2000 mm annual precipitation, where the system transitions between water and radiation limitation of evapotranspiration. The breakpoint appears to be fairly stable in the future, suggesting resilience of the Amazon to climate change. Changes in precipitation and land use are therefore more likely to govern biomass and vegetation structure in Amazonia.Earth system model simulations of future climate in the Amazon show little agreement. Here, the authors show that biases in internally generated climate explain most of this uncertainty and that the balance between water-saturated and water-limited evapotranspiration controls the Amazon resilience to climate change.

GFDL's ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon Earth System Models. Part I: physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunne, John P.; John, Jasmin G.; Adcroft, Alistair J.; Griffies, Stephen M.; Hallberg, Robert W.; Shevalikova, Elena; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Cooke, William; Dunne, Krista A.; Harrison, Matthew J.; Krasting, John P.; Malyshev, Sergey L.; Milly, P.C.D.; Phillipps, Peter J.; Sentman, Lori A.; Samuels, Bonita L.; Spelman, Michael J.; Winton, Michael; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Zadeh, Niki

2012-01-01

We describe the physical climate formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled carbon-climate Earth System Models, ESM2M and ESM2G. These models demonstrate similar climate fidelity as the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's previous CM2.1 climate model while incorporating explicit and consistent carbon dynamics. The two models differ exclusively in the physical ocean component; ESM2M uses Modular Ocean Model version 4.1 with vertical pressure layers while ESM2G uses Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics with a bulk mixed layer and interior isopycnal layers. Differences in the ocean mean state include the thermocline depth being relatively deep in ESM2M and relatively shallow in ESM2G compared to observations. The crucial role of ocean dynamics on climate variability is highlighted in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation being overly strong in ESM2M and overly weak ESM2G relative to observations. Thus, while ESM2G might better represent climate changes relating to: total heat content variability given its lack of long term drift, gyre circulation and ventilation in the North Pacific, tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans, and depth structure in the overturning and abyssal flows, ESM2M might better represent climate changes relating to: surface circulation given its superior surface temperature, salinity and height patterns, tropical Pacific circulation and variability, and Southern Ocean dynamics. Our overall assessment is that neither model is fundamentally superior to the other, and that both models achieve sufficient fidelity to allow meaningful climate and earth system modeling applications. This affords us the ability to assess the role of ocean configuration on earth system interactions in the context of two state-of-the-art coupled carbon-climate models.

Late Lutetian Thermal Maximum—Crossing a Thermal Threshold in Earth's Climate System?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerhold, T.; Röhl, U.; Donner, B.; Frederichs, T.; Kordesch, W. E. C.; Bohaty, S. M.; Hodell, D. A.; Laskar, J.; Zeebe, R. E.

2018-01-01

Recognizing and deciphering transient global warming events triggered by massive release of carbon into Earth's ocean-atmosphere climate system in the past are important for understanding climate under elevated pCO2 conditions. Here we present new high-resolution geochemical records including benthic foraminiferal stable isotope data with clear evidence of a short-lived (30 kyr) warming event at 41.52 Ma. The event occurs in the late Lutetian within magnetochron C19r and is characterized by a ˜2°C warming of the deep ocean in the southern South Atlantic. The magnitudes of the carbon and oxygen isotope excursions of the Late Lutetian Thermal Maximum are comparable to the H2 event (53.6 Ma) suggesting a similar response of the climate system to carbon cycle perturbations even in an already relatively cooler climate several million years after the Early Eocene Climate Optimum. Coincidence of the event with exceptionally high insolation values in the Northern Hemisphere at 41.52 Ma might indicate that Earth's climate system has a thermal threshold. When this tipping point is crossed, rapid positive feedback mechanisms potentially trigger transient global warming. The orbital configuration in this case could have caused prolonged warm and dry season leading to a massive release of terrestrial carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system initiating environmental change.

Prospects of the New Science and Outreach Network Baltic Earth with Results of the Second Climate Change Assessment for the Baltic Sea Region (BACC II)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reckermann, M.; Von Storch, H.; Omstedt, A. T.; Meier, M.; Rutgersson, A.

2014-12-01

The Baltic Sea region in Northern Europe spans different climate and population zones, from a temperate, highly populated, industrialized south with intensive agriculture to a boreal, rural north. It represents an old cultural landscape, and the Baltic Sea itself is among the most intensively studied sea areas of the world. Baltic Earth is the new Earth system research network for the Baltic Sea region. It is the successor to BALTEX, which was terminated in June 2013 after 20 years and two successful phases. Baltic Earth stands for the vision to achieve an improved Earth system understanding of the Baltic Sea region. This means that the research disciplines of BALTEX continue to be relevant, i.e. atmospheric and climate sciences, hydrology, oceanography and biogeochemistry, but a more holistic view of the Earth system encompassing processes in the atmosphere, on land and in the sea as well as in the anthroposphere shall gain in importance in Baltic Earth. Specific grand research challenges have been formulated, representing interdisciplinary research questions to be tackled in the coming years. A major means will be scientific assessments of particular research topics by expert groups, similar to the BACC approach, which shall help to identify knowledge gaps and develop research strategies. A major outcome of Baltic Earth will be the update of the BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin (BACC II). This new study after 5 years finds the results of BACC I still valid. Climate change can be detected at the regional scale but attribution is still weak. The effect of changing atmospheric aerosol loads and land use change is largely unknown so far and needs further attention in the coming years. For the observed changes in biogeochemical and ecological systems, multiple drivers are at work of which climate change is one. Their relative importance still needs to be evaluated. When addressing climate change impacts on e.g. forestry, agriculture, urban complexes and the marine and terrestrial environment in the Baltic Sea basin, a broad perspective is needed which considers not only climate change but also other significant factors such as emission changes, demographic, economic as well as land-use changes.

Space observations for global and regional studies of the biosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cihlar, J.; Li, Z.; Chen, J.; Sellers, P.; Hall, F.

1994-01-01

The capability to make space-based measurements of Earth at high spatial and temporal resolutions, which would not otherwise be economically or practically feasible, became available just in time to contribute to scientific understanding of the interactive processes governing the total Earth system. Such understanding has now become essential in order to take practical steps which would counteract or mitigate the pervasive impact of the growing human population on the future habitability of the Earth. The paper reviews the rationale for using space observations for studies of climate and terrestrial ecosystems at global and regional scales, as well as the requirements for such observations for studies of climate and ecosystem dynamics. The present status of these developments is reported along with initiatives under way to advance the use of satellite observations for Earth system studies. The most important contribution of space observations is the provision of physical or biophysical parameters for models representing various components of the Earth system. Examples of such parameters are given for climatic and ecosystem studies.

Check-Up of Planet Earth at the Turn of the Millennium: Contribution of EOS-Terra to a New Phase in Earth Sciences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufman, Yoram

1999-01-01

Langley's remarkable solar and lunar spectra collected from Mt. Whitney inspired Arrhenius to develop the first quantitative climate model in 1896. In 1999, NASA's Earth Observing AM Satellite (EOS-Terra) will repeat Langley's experiment, but for the entire planet, thus pioneering a wide array of calibrated spectral observations from space of the Earth System. Conceived in response to real environmental problems, EOS-Terra, in conjunction with other international satellite efforts, will fill a major gap in current efforts by providing quantitative global data sets with a resolution of few kilometers on the physical, chemical and biological elements of the earth system. Thus, like Langley's data, EOS-Terra can revolutionize climate research by inspiring a new generation of climate system models and enable us to assess the human impact on the environment. In the talk I shall review the historical developments that brought to the Terra mission, its objectives and example of application to biomass burning.

The Emergence of Land Use as a Global Force in the Earth System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, E. C.

2015-12-01

Human societies have emerged as a global force capable of transforming the biosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, atmosphere and climate. As a result, the long-term dynamics of the Earth system can no longer be understood or predicted without understanding their coupling with human societal dynamics. Here, a general causal theory is presented to explain why behaviorally modern humans, unlike any prior multicellular species, gained this unprecedented capacity to reshape the Earth system and how this societal capacity has changed from the Pleistocene to the present and future. Sociocultural niche construction theory, building on existing theories of ecosystem engineering, niche construction, the extended evolutionary synthesis, cultural evolution, ultrasociality and social change, can explain both the long-term upscaling of human societies and their unprecedented capacity to transform the Earth system. Regime shifts in human sociocultural niche construction, from the clearing of land using fire, to shifting cultivation, to intensive agriculture, to global food systems dependent on fossil fuel combustion, have enabled human societies to scale up while gaining the capacity to reshape the global patterns and processes of biogeography, ecosystems, landscapes, biomes, the biosphere, and ultimately the functioning of the Earth system. Just as Earth's geophysical climate system shapes the long-term dynamics of energy and material flow across the "spheres" of the Earth system, human societies, interacting at global scale to form "human systems", are increasingly shaping the global dynamics of energy, material, biotic and information flow across the spheres of the Earth system, including a newly emerged anthroposphere comprised of human societies and their material cultures. Human systems and the anthroposphere are strongly coupled with climate and other Earth systems and are dynamic in response to evolutionary changes in human social organization, cooperative ecosystem engineering, non-kin exchange relationships, and energy systems. It is hoped that intentional societal efforts to alter the dynamics of human systems can ultimately move Earth systems towards more beneficial and less detrimental outcomes for both human societies and nonhuman species.

Earth Reflectivity from Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) Earth Polychromatic Camera (EPIC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, W.; Knyazikhin, Y.; Wen, G.; Marshak, A.; Yan, G.; Mu, X.; Park, T.; Chen, C.; Xu, B.; Myneni, R. B.

2017-12-01

Earth reflectivity, which is also specified as Earth albedo or Earth reflectance, is defined as the fraction of incident solar radiation reflected back to space at the top of the atmosphere. It is a key climate parameter that describes climate forcing and associated response of the climate system. Satellite is one of the most efficient ways to measure earth reflectivity. Conventional polar orbit and geostationary satellites observe the Earth at a specific local solar time or monitor only a specific area of the Earth. For the first time, the NASA's Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) onboard NOAA's Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) collects simultaneously radiance data of the entire sunlit earth at 8 km resolution at nadir every 65 to 110 min. It provides reflectivity images in backscattering direction with the scattering angle between 168º and 176º at 10 narrow spectral bands in ultraviolet, visible, and near-Infrared (NIR) wavelengths. We estimate the Earth reflectivity using DSCOVR EPIC observations and analyze errors in Earth reflectivity due to sampling strategy of polar orbit Terra/Aqua MODIS and geostationary Goddard Earth Observing System-R series missions. We also provide estimates of contributions from ocean, clouds, land and vegetation to the Earth reflectivity. Graphic abstract shows enhanced RGB EPIC images of the Earth taken on July-24-2016 at 7:04GMT and 15:48 GMT. Parallel lines depict a 2330 km wide Aqua MODIS swath. The plot shows diurnal courses of mean Earth reflectance over the Aqua swath (triangles) and the entire image (circles). In this example the relative difference between the mean reflectances is +34% at 7:04GMT and -16% at 15:48 GMT. Corresponding daily averages are 0.256 (0.044) and 0.231 (0.025). The relative precision estimated as root mean square relative error is 17.9% in this example.

EarthLabs Modules: Engaging Students In Extended, Rigorous Investigations Of The Ocean, Climate and Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manley, J.; Chegwidden, D.; Mote, A. S.; Ledley, T. S.; Lynds, S. E.; Haddad, N.; Ellins, K.

2016-02-01

EarthLabs, envisioned as a national model for high school Earth or Environmental Science lab courses, is adaptable for both undergraduate middle school students. The collection includes ten online modules that combine to feature a global view of our planet as a dynamic, interconnected system, by engaging learners in extended investigations. EarthLabs support state and national guidelines, including the NGSS, for science content. Four modules directly guide students to discover vital aspects of the oceans while five other modules incorporate ocean sciences in order to complete an understanding of Earth's climate system. Students gain a broad perspective on the key role oceans play in fishing industry, droughts, coral reefs, hurricanes, the carbon cycle, as well as life on land and in the seas to drive our changing climate by interacting with scientific research data, manipulating satellite imagery, numerical data, computer visualizations, experiments, and video tutorials. Students explore Earth system processes and build quantitative skills that enable them to objectively evaluate scientific findings for themselves as they move through ordered sequences that guide the learning. As a robust collection, EarthLabs modules engage students in extended, rigorous investigations allowing a deeper understanding of the ocean, climate and weather. This presentation provides an overview of the ten curriculum modules that comprise the EarthLabs collection developed by TERC and found at http://serc.carleton.edu/earthlabs/index.html. Evaluation data on the effectiveness and use in secondary education classrooms will be summarized.

Understanding Water-Energy-Ecology Nexus from an Integrated Earth-Human System Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, H. Y.; Zhang, X.; Wan, W.; Zhuang, Y.; Hejazi, M. I.; Leung, L. R.

2017-12-01

Both Earth and human systems exert notable controls on streamflow and stream temperature that influence energy production and ecosystem health. An integrated water model representing river processes and reservoir regulations has been developed and coupled to a land surface model and an integrated assessment model of energy, land, water, and socioeconomics to investigate the energy-water-ecology nexus in the context of climate change and water management. Simulations driven by two climate change projections following the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 radiative forcing scenarios, with and without water management, are analyzed to evaluate the individual and combined effects of climate change and water management on streamflow and stream temperature in the U.S. The simulations revealed important impacts of climate change and water management on hydrological droughts. The simulations also revealed the dynamics of competition between changes in water demand and water availability in the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios that influence streamflow and stream temperature, with important consequences to thermoelectricity production and future survival of juvenile Salmon. The integrated water model is being implemented to the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME), a coupled Earth System Model, to enable future investigations of the energy-water-ecology nexus in the integrated Earth-Human system.

Check-Up of Planet Earth at the Turn of the Millennium: Anticipated New Phase in Earth Sciences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufman, Y. J.; Ramanathan, V.

1998-01-01

Langley's remarkable solar and lunar spectra collected from Mt. Whitney inspired Arrhenius to develop the first quantitative climate model in 1896. In 1999, NASA's Earth Observing AM Satellite (EOS-AM) will repeat Langley's experiment, but for the entire planet, thus pioneering calibrated spectral observations from space. Conceived in response to real environmental problems, EOS-AM, in conjunction with other international satellite efforts, will fill a major gap in current efforts by providing quantitative global data sets with a resolution of few kilometers on the physical, chemical and biological elements of the earth system. Thus, like Langley's data, EOS-AM can revolutionize climate research by inspiring a new generation of climate system models and enable us to assess the human impact on the environment.

Quantifying the importance of model-to-model variability in integrated assessments of 21st century climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Jones, A. D.; Shi, X.; Calvin, K. V.

2016-12-01

The C4MIP and CMIP5 model intercomparison projects (MIPs) highlighted uncertainties in climate projections, driven to a large extent by interactions between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate feedbacks. In addition, the importance of feedbacks between human (energy and economic) systems and natural (carbon and climate) systems is poorly understood, and not considered in the previous MIP protocols. The experiments conducted under the previous Integrated Earth System Model (iESM) project, which coupled a earth system model with an integrated assessment model (GCAM), found that the inclusion of climate feedbacks on the terrestrial system in an RCP4.5 scenario increased ecosystem productivity, resulting in declines in cropland extent and increases in bioenergy production and forest cover. As a follow-up to these studies and to further understand climate-carbon cycle interactions and feedbacks, we examined the robustness of these results by running a suite of GCAM-only experiments using changes in ecosystem productivity derived from both the CMIP5 archive and the Agricultural Model Intercomparison Project. In our results, the effects of climate on yield in an RCP8.5 scenario tended to be more positive than those of AgMIP, but more negative than those of the other CMIP models. We discuss these results and the implications of model-to-model variability for integrated coupling studies of the future earth system.

Earth radiation balance and climate: Why the Moon is the wrong place to observe the Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kandel, Robert S.

1994-06-01

Increasing 'greenhouse' gases in the Earth's atmosphere will perturb the Earth's radiation balance, forcing climate change over coming decades. Climate sensitivity depends critically on cloud-radiation feedback: its evaluation requires continual observation of changing patterns of Earth radiation balance and cloud cover. The Moon is the wrong place for such observations, with many disadvantages compared to an observation system combining platforms in low polar, intermediate-inclination and geostationary orbits. From the Moon, active observations are infeasible; thermal infrared observations require very large instruments to reach spatial resolutions obtained at much lower cost from geostationary or lower orbits. The Earth's polar zones are never well observed from the Moon; other zones are invisible more than half the time. The monthly illumination cycle leads to further bias in radiation budget determinations. The Earth will be a pretty sight from the Earth-side of the Moon, but serious Earth observations will be made elsewhere.

Climate-induced tree mortality: Earth system consequences

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adams, Henry D.; Macalady, Alison K.; Breshears, David D.; Allen, Craig D.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Saleska, Scott; Huxman, Travis E.; McDowell, Nathan G.

2010-01-01

One of the greatest uncertainties in global environmental change is predicting changes in feedbacks between the biosphere and the Earth system. Terrestrial ecosystems and, in particular, forests exert strong controls on the global carbon cycle and influence regional hydrology and climatology directly through water and surface energy budgets [Bonan, 2008; Chapin et al., 2008].According to new research, tree mortality associated with elevated temperatures and drought has the potential to rapidly alter forest ecosystems, potentially affecting feedbacks to the Earth system [Allen et al., 2010]. Several lines of recent research demonstrate how tree mortality rates in forests may be sensitive to climate change—particularly warming and drying. This emerging consequence of global change has important effects on Earth system processes (Figure 1).

Stratigraphic and Earth System approaches to defining the Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steffen, Will; Leinfelder, Reinhold; Zalasiewicz, Jan; Waters, Colin N.; Williams, Mark; Summerhayes, Colin; Barnosky, Anthony D.; Cearreta, Alejandro; Crutzen, Paul; Edgeworth, Matt; Ellis, Erle C.; Fairchild, Ian J.; Galuszka, Agnieszka; Grinevald, Jacques; Haywood, Alan; Ivar do Sul, Juliana; Jeandel, Catherine; McNeill, J. R.; Odada, Eric; Oreskes, Naomi; Revkin, Andrew; Richter, Daniel deB.; Syvitski, James; Vidas, Davor; Wagreich, Michael; Wing, Scott L.; Wolfe, Alexander P.; Schellnhuber, H. J.

2016-08-01

Stratigraphy provides insights into the evolution and dynamics of the Earth System over its long history. With recent developments in Earth System science, changes in Earth System dynamics can now be observed directly and projected into the near future. An integration of the two approaches provides powerful insights into the nature and significance of contemporary changes to Earth. From both perspectives, the Earth has been pushed out of the Holocene Epoch by human activities, with the mid-20th century a strong candidate for the start date of the Anthropocene, the proposed new epoch in Earth history. Here we explore two contrasting scenarios for the future of the Anthropocene, recognizing that the Earth System has already undergone a substantial transition away from the Holocene state. A rapid shift of societies toward the UN Sustainable Development Goals could stabilize the Earth System in a state with more intense interglacial conditions than in the late Quaternary climate regime and with little further biospheric change. In contrast, a continuation of the present Anthropocene trajectory of growing human pressures will likely lead to biotic impoverishment and a much warmer climate with a significant loss of polar ice.

The cloud-phase feedback in the Super-parameterized Community Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burt, M. A.; Randall, D. A.

2016-12-01

Recent comparisons of observations and climate model simulations by I. Tan and colleagues have suggested that the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen (WBF) process tends to be too active in climate models, making too much cloud ice, and resulting in an exaggerated negative cloud-phase feedback on climate change. We explore the WBF process and its effect on shortwave cloud forcing in present-day and future climate simulations with the Community Earth System Model, and its super-parameterized counterpart. Results show that SP-CESM has much less cloud ice and a weaker cloud-phase feedback than CESM.

Linkages between the Urban Environment and Earth's Climate System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Jin, Menglin

2003-01-01

Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025 60% of the world s population will live in cities (UNFP, 1999). Though urban areas are local in scale, human activity in urban environments has impacts at local, to global scale by changing atmospheric composition; impacting components of the water cycle; and modifying the carbon cycle 2nd ecosystems. For example, urban dwellers are undoubtedly familiar with "high" ozone pollution days, flash flooding in city streets, or heat stress on summer days. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-climate system is incomplete. Better understanding of how the Earth s weather, oceans, and land work together and the influence of the urban environment on this climate system is critical. This paper highlights some of the major and current issues involving interactions between urban environments and the Earth's climate system. It also captures some of the most current thinking and findings of the authors and key experts in the field.

New tools for linking human and earth system models: The Toolbox for Human-Earth System Interaction & Scaling (THESIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.; Kauffman, B.; Lawrence, P.

2016-12-01

Integrated analysis of questions regarding land, water, and energy resources often requires integration of models of different types. One type of integration is between human and earth system models, since both societal and physical processes influence these resources. For example, human processes such as changes in population, economic conditions, and policies govern the demand for land, water and energy, while the interactions of these resources with physical systems determine their availability and environmental consequences. We have begun to develop and use a toolkit for linking human and earth system models called the Toolbox for Human-Earth System Integration and Scaling (THESIS). THESIS consists of models and software tools to translate, scale, and synthesize information from and between human system models and earth system models (ESMs), with initial application to linking the NCAR integrated assessment model, iPETS, with the NCAR earth system model, CESM. Initial development is focused on urban areas and agriculture, sectors that are both explicitly represented in both CESM and iPETS. Tools are being made available to the community as they are completed (see https://www2.cgd.ucar.edu/sections/tss/iam/THESIS_tools). We discuss four general types of functions that THESIS tools serve (Spatial Distribution, Spatial Properties, Consistency, and Outcome Evaluation). Tools are designed to be modular and can be combined in order to carry out more complex analyses. We illustrate their application to both the exposure of population to climate extremes and to the evaluation of climate impacts on the agriculture sector. For example, projecting exposure to climate extremes involves use of THESIS tools for spatial population, spatial urban land cover, the characteristics of both, and a tool to bring urban climate information together with spatial population information. Development of THESIS tools is continuing and open to the research community.

Assessing global climate-terrestrial vegetation feedbacks on carbon and nitrogen cycling in the earth system model EC-Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wårlind, David; Miller, Paul; Nieradzik, Lars; Söderberg, Fredrik; Anthoni, Peter; Arneth, Almut; Smith, Ben

2017-04-01

There has been great progress in developing an improved European Consortium Earth System Model (EC-Earth) in preparation for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and the next Assessment Report of the IPCC. The new model version has been complemented with ocean biogeochemistry, atmospheric composition (aerosols and chemistry) and dynamic land vegetation components, and has been configured to use the recommended CMIP6 forcing data sets. These new components will give us fresh insights into climate change. This study focuses on the terrestrial biosphere component Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS) that simulates vegetation dynamics and compound exchange between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere in EC-Earth. LPJ-GUESS allows for vegetation to dynamically evolve, depending on climate input, and in return provides the climate system and land surface scheme with vegetation-dependent fields such as vegetation types and leaf area index. We present the results of a study to examine the feedbacks between the dynamic terrestrial vegetation and the climate and their impact on the terrestrial ecosystem carbon and nitrogen cycles. Our results are based on a set of global, atmosphere-only historical simulations (1870 to 2014) with and without feedback between climate and vegetation and including or ignoring the effect of nitrogen limitation on plant productivity. These simulations show to what extent the addition degree of freedom in EC-Earth, introduced with the coupling of interactive dynamic vegetation to the atmosphere, has on terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycling, and represent contributions to CMIP6 (C4MIP and LUMIP) and the EU Horizon 2020 project CRESCENDO.

Multi-objective optimization of GENIE Earth system models.

PubMed

Price, Andrew R; Myerscough, Richard J; Voutchkov, Ivan I; Marsh, Robert; Cox, Simon J

2009-07-13

The tuning of parameters in climate models is essential to provide reliable long-term forecasts of Earth system behaviour. We apply a multi-objective optimization algorithm to the problem of parameter estimation in climate models. This optimization process involves the iterative evaluation of response surface models (RSMs), followed by the execution of multiple Earth system simulations. These computations require an infrastructure that provides high-performance computing for building and searching the RSMs and high-throughput computing for the concurrent evaluation of a large number of models. Grid computing technology is therefore essential to make this algorithm practical for members of the GENIE project.

Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Data Products for Climate Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kato, Seiji; Loeb, Norman G.; Rutan, David A.; Rose, Fred G.

2015-01-01

NASA's Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project integrates CERES, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and geostationary satellite observations to provide top-of-atmosphere (TOA) irradiances derived from broadband radiance observations by CERES instruments. It also uses snow cover and sea ice extent retrieved from microwave instruments as well as thermodynamic variables from reanalysis. In addition, these variables are used for surface and atmospheric irradiance computations. The CERES project provides TOA, surface, and atmospheric irradiances in various spatial and temporal resolutions. These data sets are for climate research and evaluation of climate models. Long-term observations are required to understand how the Earth system responds to radiative forcing. A simple model is used to estimate the time to detect trends in TOA reflected shortwave and emitted longwave irradiances.

Noise-induced transitions and shifts in a climate-vegetation feedback model.

PubMed

Alexandrov, Dmitri V; Bashkirtseva, Irina A; Ryashko, Lev B

2018-04-01

Motivated by the extremely important role of the Earth's vegetation dynamics in climate changes, we study the stochastic variability of a simple climate-vegetation system. In the case of deterministic dynamics, the system has one stable equilibrium and limit cycle or two stable equilibria corresponding to two opposite (cold and warm) climate-vegetation states. These states are divided by a separatrix going across a point of unstable equilibrium. Some possible stochastic scenarios caused by different externally induced natural and anthropogenic processes inherit properties of deterministic behaviour and drastically change the system dynamics. We demonstrate that the system transitions across its separatrix occur with increasing noise intensity. The climate-vegetation system therewith fluctuates, transits and localizes in the vicinity of its attractor. We show that this phenomenon occurs within some critical range of noise intensities. A noise-induced shift into the range of smaller global average temperatures corresponding to substantial oscillations of the Earth's vegetation cover is revealed. Our analysis demonstrates that the climate-vegetation interactions essentially contribute to climate dynamics and should be taken into account in more precise and complex models of climate variability.

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haywood, A.M.; Ridgwell, A.; Lunt, D.J.; Hill, D.J.; Pound, M.J.; Dowsett, H.J.; Dolan, A.M.; Francis, J.E.; Williams, M.

2011-01-01

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race's current grand climate experiment. This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO2 forcing-whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate-or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO2 was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO2) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO2 concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO2 thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate. ?? 2011 The Royal Society.

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

PubMed

Haywood, Alan M; Ridgwell, Andy; Lunt, Daniel J; Hill, Daniel J; Pound, Matthew J; Dowsett, Harry J; Dolan, Aisling M; Francis, Jane E; Williams, Mark

2011-03-13

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race's current grand climate experiment. This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO(2) forcing--whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate--or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO(2) was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO(2)) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO(2) concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO(2) thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate.

Decadal climate predictions improved by ocean ensemble dispersion filtering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kadow, C.; Illing, S.; Kröner, I.; Ulbrich, U.; Cubasch, U.

2017-06-01

Decadal predictions by Earth system models aim to capture the state and phase of the climate several years in advance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. While short-term weather forecasts represent an initial value problem and long-term climate projections represent a boundary condition problem, the decadal climate prediction falls in-between these two time scales. In recent years, more precise initialization techniques of coupled Earth system models and increased ensemble sizes have improved decadal predictions. However, climate models in general start losing the initialized signal and its predictive skill from one forecast year to the next. Here we show that the climate prediction skill of an Earth system model can be improved by a shift of the ocean state toward the ensemble mean of its individual members at seasonal intervals. We found that this procedure, called ensemble dispersion filter, results in more accurate results than the standard decadal prediction. Global mean and regional temperature, precipitation, and winter cyclone predictions show an increased skill up to 5 years ahead. Furthermore, the novel technique outperforms predictions with larger ensembles and higher resolution. Our results demonstrate how decadal climate predictions benefit from ocean ensemble dispersion filtering toward the ensemble mean.