Statistical tests of simple earthquake cycle models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
DeVries, Phoebe M. R.; Evans, Eileen L.
2016-12-01
A central goal of observing and modeling the earthquake cycle is to forecast when a particular fault may generate an earthquake: a fault late in its earthquake cycle may be more likely to generate an earthquake than a fault early in its earthquake cycle. Models that can explain geodetic observations throughout the entire earthquake cycle may be required to gain a more complete understanding of relevant physics and phenomenology. Previous efforts to develop unified earthquake models for strike-slip faults have largely focused on explaining both preseismic and postseismic geodetic observations available across a few faults in California, Turkey, and Tibet. An alternative approach leverages the global distribution of geodetic and geologic slip rate estimates on strike-slip faults worldwide. Here we use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for similarity of distributions to infer, in a statistically rigorous manner, viscoelastic earthquake cycle models that are inconsistent with 15 sets of observations across major strike-slip faults. We reject a large subset of two-layer models incorporating Burgers rheologies at a significance level of α = 0.05 (those with long-term Maxwell viscosities ηM < 4.0 × 1019 Pa s and ηM > 4.6 × 1020 Pa s) but cannot reject models on the basis of transient Kelvin viscosity ηK. Finally, we examine the implications of these results for the predicted earthquake cycle timing of the 15 faults considered and compare these predictions to the geologic and historical record.
Statistical tests of simple earthquake cycle models
Devries, Phoebe M. R.; Evans, Eileen
2016-01-01
A central goal of observing and modeling the earthquake cycle is to forecast when a particular fault may generate an earthquake: a fault late in its earthquake cycle may be more likely to generate an earthquake than a fault early in its earthquake cycle. Models that can explain geodetic observations throughout the entire earthquake cycle may be required to gain a more complete understanding of relevant physics and phenomenology. Previous efforts to develop unified earthquake models for strike-slip faults have largely focused on explaining both preseismic and postseismic geodetic observations available across a few faults in California, Turkey, and Tibet. An alternative approach leverages the global distribution of geodetic and geologic slip rate estimates on strike-slip faults worldwide. Here we use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for similarity of distributions to infer, in a statistically rigorous manner, viscoelastic earthquake cycle models that are inconsistent with 15 sets of observations across major strike-slip faults. We reject a large subset of two-layer models incorporating Burgers rheologies at a significance level of α = 0.05 (those with long-term Maxwell viscosities ηM <~ 4.0 × 1019 Pa s and ηM >~ 4.6 × 1020 Pa s) but cannot reject models on the basis of transient Kelvin viscosity ηK. Finally, we examine the implications of these results for the predicted earthquake cycle timing of the 15 faults considered and compare these predictions to the geologic and historical record.
Dynamics of folding: Impact of fault bend folds on earthquake cycles
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sathiakumar, S.; Barbot, S.; Hubbard, J.
2017-12-01
Earthquakes in subduction zones and subaerial convergent margins are some of the largest in the world. So far, forecasts of future earthquakes have primarily relied on assessing past earthquakes to look for seismic gaps and slip deficits. However, the roles of fault geometry and off-fault plasticity are typically overlooked. We use structural geology (fault-bend folding theory) to inform fault modeling in order to better understand how deformation is accommodated on the geological time scale and through the earthquake cycle. Fault bends in megathrusts, like those proposed for the Nepal Himalaya, will induce folding of the upper plate. This introduces changes in the slip rate on different fault segments, and therefore on the loading rate at the plate interface, profoundly affecting the pattern of earthquake cycles. We develop numerical simulations of slip evolution under rate-and-state friction and show that this effect introduces segmentation of the earthquake cycle. In crustal dynamics, it is challenging to describe the dynamics of fault-bend folds, because the deformation is accommodated by small amounts of slip parallel to bedding planes ("flexural slip"), localized on axial surface, i.e. folding axes pinned to fault bends. We use dislocation theory to describe the dynamics of folding along these axial surfaces, using analytic solutions that provide displacement and stress kernels to simulate the temporal evolution of folding and assess the effects of folding on earthquake cycles. Studies of the 2015 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal, have shown that fault geometry can affect earthquake segmentation. Here, we show that in addition to the fault geometry, the actual geology of the rocks in the hanging wall of the fault also affect critical parameters, including the loading rate on parts of the fault, based on fault-bend folding theory. Because loading velocity controls the recurrence time of earthquakes, these two effects together are likely to have a strong impact on the
Geodetic Imaging of the Earthquake Cycle
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tong, Xiaopeng
In this dissertation I used Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and Global Positioning System (GPS) to recover crustal deformation caused by earthquake cycle processes. The studied areas span three different types of tectonic boundaries: a continental thrust earthquake (M7.9 Wenchuan, China) at the eastern margin of the Tibet plateau, a mega-thrust earthquake (M8.8 Maule, Chile) at the Chile subduction zone, and the interseismic deformation of the San Andreas Fault System (SAFS). A new L-band radar onboard a Japanese satellite ALOS allows us to image high-resolution surface deformation in vegetated areas, which is not possible with older C-band radar systems. In particular, both the Wenchuan and Maule InSAR analyses involved L-band ScanSAR interferometry which had not been attempted before. I integrated a large InSAR dataset with dense GPS networks over the entire SAFS. The integration approach features combining the long-wavelength deformation from GPS with the short-wavelength deformation from InSAR through a physical model. The recovered fine-scale surface deformation leads us to better understand the underlying earthquake cycle processes. The geodetic slip inversion reveals that the fault slip of the Wenchuan earthquake is maximum near the surface and decreases with depth. The coseismic slip model of the Maule earthquake constrains the down-dip extent of the fault slip to be at 45 km depth, similar to the Moho depth. I inverted for the slip rate on 51 major faults of the SAFS using Green's functions for a 3-dimensional earthquake cycle model that includes kinematically prescribed slip events for the past earthquakes since the year 1000. A 60 km thick plate model with effective viscosity of 10 19 Pa · s is preferred based on the geodetic and geological observations. The slip rates recovered from the plate models are compared to the half-space model. The InSAR observation reveals that the creeping section of the SAFS is partially locked. This high
Remote monitoring of the earthquake cycle using satellite radar interferometry.
Wright, Tim J
2002-12-15
The earthquake cycle is poorly understood. Earthquakes continue to occur on previously unrecognized faults. Earthquake prediction seems impossible. These remain the facts despite nearly 100 years of intensive study since the earthquake cycle was first conceptualized. Using data acquired from satellites in orbit 800 km above the Earth, a new technique, radar interferometry (InSAR), has the potential to solve these problems. For the first time, detailed maps of the warping of the Earth's surface during the earthquake cycle can be obtained with a spatial resolution of a few tens of metres and a precision of a few millimetres. InSAR does not need equipment on the ground or expensive field campaigns, so it can gather crucial data on earthquakes and the seismic cycle from some of the remotest areas of the planet. In this article, I review some of the remarkable observations of the earthquake cycle already made using radar interferometry and speculate on breakthroughs that are tantalizingly close.
The Bay Area Earthquake Cycle:A Paleoseismic Perspective
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schwartz, D. P.; Seitz, G.; Lienkaemper, J. J.; Dawson, T. E.; Hecker, S.; William, L.; Kelson, K.
2001-12-01
Stress changes produced by the 1906 San Francisco earthquake had a profound effect on Bay Area seismicity, dramatically reducing it in the 20th century. Whether the San Francisco Bay Region (SFBR) is still within, is just emerging from it, or is out of the 1906 stress shadow is an issue of strong debate with important implications for earthquake mechanics and seismic hazards. Historically the SFBR has not experienced one complete earthquake cycle--the interval immediately following, then leading up to and repeating, a 1906-type (multi-segment rupture, M7.9) San Andreas event. The historical record of earthquake occurrence in the SFBR appears to be complete at about M5.5 back to 1850 (Bakun, 1999), which is less than half a cycle. For large events (qualitatively placed at M*7) Toppozada and Borchardt (1998) suggest the record is complete back to 1776, which may represent about half a cycle. During this period only the southern Hayward fault (1868) and the San Andreas fault (1838?, 1906) have produced their expected large events. New paleoseismic data now provide, for the first time, a more complete view of the most recent pre-1906 SFBR earthquake cycle. Focused paleoseismic efforts under the Bay Area Paleoearthquake Experiment (BAPEX) have developed a chronology of the most recent large earthquakes (MRE) on major SFBR faults. The San Andreas (SA), northern Hayward (NH), southern Hayward (SH), Rodgers Creek (RC), and northern Calaveras (NC) faults provide clear paleoseismic evidence for large events post-1600 AD. The San Gregorio (SG) may have also produced a large earthquake after this date. The timing of the MREs, in years AD, follows. The age ranges are 2-sigma radiocarbon intervals; the dates in parentheses are 1-sigma. MRE ages are: a) SA 1600-1670 (1630-1660), NH 1640-1776 (1635-1776); SH 1635-1776 (1685-1676); RC 1670-1776 (1730-1776); NC 1670-1830?; and San Gregorio 1270-1776 but possibly 1640-1776 (1685-1776). Based on present radiocarbon dating, the NH
Earthquake cycles and physical modeling of the process leading up to a large earthquake
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ohnaka, Mitiyasu
2004-08-01
A thorough discussion is made on what the rational constitutive law for earthquake ruptures ought to be from the standpoint of the physics of rock friction and fracture on the basis of solid facts observed in the laboratory. From this standpoint, it is concluded that the constitutive law should be a slip-dependent law with parameters that may depend on slip rate or time. With the long-term goal of establishing a rational methodology of forecasting large earthquakes, the entire process of one cycle for a typical, large earthquake is modeled, and a comprehensive scenario that unifies individual models for intermediate-and short-term (immediate) forecasts is presented within the framework based on the slip-dependent constitutive law and the earthquake cycle model. The earthquake cycle includes the phase of accumulation of elastic strain energy with tectonic loading (phase II), and the phase of rupture nucleation at the critical stage where an adequate amount of the elastic strain energy has been stored (phase III). Phase II plays a critical role in physical modeling of intermediate-term forecasting, and phase III in physical modeling of short-term (immediate) forecasting. The seismogenic layer and individual faults therein are inhomogeneous, and some of the physical quantities inherent in earthquake ruptures exhibit scale-dependence. It is therefore critically important to incorporate the properties of inhomogeneity and physical scaling, in order to construct realistic, unified scenarios with predictive capability. The scenario presented may be significant and useful as a necessary first step for establishing the methodology for forecasting large earthquakes.
Crustal deformation in great California earthquake cycles
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Li, Victor C.; Rice, James R.
1986-01-01
Periodic crustal deformation associated with repeated strike slip earthquakes is computed for the following model: A depth L (less than or similiar to H) extending downward from the Earth's surface at a transform boundary between uniform elastic lithospheric plates of thickness H is locked between earthquakes. It slips an amount consistent with remote plate velocity V sub pl after each lapse of earthquake cycle time T sub cy. Lower portions of the fault zone at the boundary slip continuously so as to maintain constant resistive shear stress. The plates are coupled at their base to a Maxwellian viscoelastic asthenosphere through which steady deep seated mantle motions, compatible with plate velocity, are transmitted to the surface plates. The coupling is described approximately through a generalized Elsasser model. It is argued that the model gives a more realistic physical description of tectonic loading, including the time dependence of deep slip and crustal stress build up throughout the earthquake cycle, than do simpler kinematic models in which loading is represented as imposed uniform dislocation slip on the fault below the locked zone.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ampuero, J. P.; Meng, L.; Hough, S. E.; Martin, S. S.; Asimaki, D.
2015-12-01
Two salient features of the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake provide new opportunities to evaluate models of earthquake cycle and dynamic rupture. The Gorkha earthquake broke only partially across the seismogenic depth of the Main Himalayan Thrust: its slip was confined in a narrow depth range near the bottom of the locked zone. As indicated by the belt of background seismicity and decades of geodetic monitoring, this is an area of stress concentration induced by deep fault creep. Previous conceptual models attribute such intermediate-size events to rheological segmentation along-dip, including a fault segment with intermediate rheology in between the stable and unstable slip segments. We will present results from earthquake cycle models that, in contrast, highlight the role of stress loading concentration, rather than frictional segmentation. These models produce "super-cycles" comprising recurrent characteristic events interspersed by deep, smaller non-characteristic events of overall increasing magnitude. Because the non-characteristic events are an intrinsic component of the earthquake super-cycle, the notion of Coulomb triggering or time-advance of the "big one" is ill-defined. The high-frequency (HF) ground motions produced in Kathmandu by the Gorkha earthquake were weaker than expected for such a magnitude and such close distance to the rupture, as attested by strong motion recordings and by macroseismic data. Static slip reached close to Kathmandu but had a long rise time, consistent with control by the along-dip extent of the rupture. Moreover, the HF (1 Hz) radiation sources, imaged by teleseismic back-projection of multiple dense arrays calibrated by aftershock data, was deep and far from Kathmandu. We argue that HF rupture imaging provided a better predictor of shaking intensity than finite source inversion. The deep location of HF radiation can be attributed to rupture over heterogeneous initial stresses left by the background seismic activity
Finite element models of earthquake cycles in mature strike-slip fault zones
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lynch, John Charles
The research presented in this dissertation is on the subject of strike-slip earthquakes and the stresses that build and release in the Earth's crust during earthquake cycles. Numerical models of these cycles in a layered elastic/viscoelastic crust are produced using the finite element method. A fault that alternately sticks and slips poses a particularly challenging problem for numerical implementation, and a new contact element dubbed the "Velcro" element was developed to address this problem (Appendix A). Additionally, the finite element code used in this study was bench-marked against analytical solutions for some simplified problems (Chapter 2), and the resolving power was tested for the fault region of the models (Appendix B). With the modeling method thus developed, there are two main questions posed. First, in Chapter 3, the effect of a finite-width shear zone is considered. By defining a viscoelastic shear zone beneath a periodically slipping fault, it is found that shear stress concentrates at the edges of the shear zone and thus causes the stress tensor to rotate into non-Andersonian orientations. Several methods are used to examine the stress patterns, including the plunge angles of the principal stresses and a new method that plots the stress tensor in a manner analogous to seismic focal mechanism diagrams. In Chapter 4, a simple San Andreas-like model is constructed, consisting of two great earthquake producing faults separated by a freely-slipping shorter fault. The model inputs of lower crustal viscosity, fault separation distance, and relative breaking strengths are examined for their effect on fault communication. It is found that with a lower crustal viscosity of 1018 Pa s (in the lower range of estimates for California), the two faults tend to synchronize their earthquake cycles, even in the cases where the faults have asymmetric breaking strengths. These models imply that postseismic stress transfer over hundreds of kilometers may play a
Viscoelastic-coupling model for the earthquake cycle driven from below
Savage, J.C.
2000-01-01
In a linear system the earthquake cycle can be represented as the sum of a solution which reproduces the earthquake cycle itself (viscoelastic-coupling model) and a solution that provides the driving force. We consider two cases, one in which the earthquake cycle is driven by stresses transmitted along the schizosphere and a second in which the cycle is driven from below by stresses transmitted along the upper mantle (i.e., the schizosphere and upper mantle, respectively, act as stress guides in the lithosphere). In both cases the driving stress is attributed to steady motion of the stress guide, and the upper crust is assumed to be elastic. The surface deformation that accumulates during the interseismic interval depends solely upon the earthquake-cycle solution (viscoelastic-coupling model) not upon the driving source solution. Thus geodetic observations of interseismic deformation are insensitive to the source of the driving forces in a linear system. In particular, the suggestion of Bourne et al. [1998] that the deformation that accumulates across a transform fault system in the interseismic interval is a replica of the deformation that accumulates in the upper mantle during the same interval does not appear to be correct for linear systems.
Tremor, remote triggering and earthquake cycle
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Peng, Z.
2012-12-01
Deep tectonic tremor and episodic slow-slip events have been observed at major plate-boundary faults around the Pacific Rim. These events have much longer source durations than regular earthquakes, and are generally located near or below the seismogenic zone where regular earthquakes occur. Tremor and slow-slip events appear to be extremely stress sensitive, and could be instantaneously triggered by distant earthquakes and solid earth tides. However, many important questions remain open. For example, it is still not clear what are the necessary conditions for tremor generation, and how remote triggering could affect large earthquake cycle. Here I report a global search of tremor triggered by recent large teleseismic earthquakes. We mainly focus on major subduction zones around the Pacific Rim. These include the southwest and northeast Japan subduction zones, the Hikurangi subduction zone in New Zealand, the Cascadia subduction zone, and the major subduction zones in Central and South America. In addition, we examine major strike-slip faults around the Caribbean plate, the Queen Charlotte fault in northern Pacific Northwest Coast, and the San Andreas fault system in California. In each place, we first identify triggered tremor as a high-frequency non-impulsive signal that is in phase with the large-amplitude teleseismic waves. We also calculate the dynamic stress and check the triggering relationship with the Love and Rayleigh waves. Finally, we calculate the triggering potential with the local fault orientation and surface-wave incident angles. Our results suggest that tremor exists at many plate-boundary faults in different tectonic environments, and could be triggered by dynamic stress as low as a few kPas. In addition, we summarize recent observations of slow-slip events and earthquake swarms triggered by large distant earthquakes. Finally, we propose several mechanisms that could explain apparent clustering of large earthquakes around the world.
A Fluid-driven Earthquake Cycle, Omori's Law, and Fluid-driven Aftershocks
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Miller, S. A.
2015-12-01
Few models exist that predict the Omori's Law of aftershock rate decay, with rate-state friction the only physically-based model. ETAS is a probabilistic model of cascading failures, and is sometimes used to infer rate-state frictional properties. However, the (perhaps dominant) role of fluids in the earthquake process is being increasingly realised, so a fluid-based physical model for Omori's Law should be available. In this talk, I present an hypothesis for a fluid-driven earthquake cycle where dehydration and decarbonization at depth provides continuous sources of buoyant high pressure fluids that must eventually make their way back to the surface. The natural pathway for fluid escape is along plate boundaries, where in the ductile regime high pressure fluids likely play an integral role in episodic tremor and slow slip earthquakes. At shallower levels, high pressure fluids pool at the base of seismogenic zones, with the reservoir expanding in scale through the earthquake cycle. Late in the cycle, these fluids can invade and degrade the strength of the brittle crust and contribute to earthquake nucleation. The mainshock opens permeable networks that provide escape pathways for high pressure fluids and generate aftershocks along these flow paths, while creating new pathways by the aftershocks themselves. Thermally activated precipitation then seals up these pathways, returning the system to a low-permeability environment and effective seal during the subsequent tectonic stress buildup. I find that the multiplicative effect of an exponential dependence of permeability on the effective normal stress coupled with an Arrhenius-type, thermally activated exponential reduction in permeability results in Omori's Law. I simulate this scenario using a very simple model that combines non-linear diffusion and a step-wise increase in permeability when a Mohr Coulomb failure condition is met, and allow permeability to decrease as an exponential function in time. I show very
The earthquake cycle in the San Francisco Bay region: A.D. 1600–2012
Schwartz, David P.; Lienkaemper, James J.; Hecker, Suzanne; Kelson, Keith I.; Fumal, Thomas E.; Baldwin, John N.; Seitz, Gordon G.; Niemi, Tina
2014-01-01
Stress changes produced by the 1906 San Francisco earthquake had a profound effect on the seismicity of the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR), dramatically reducing it in the twentieth century. Whether the SFBR is still within or has emerged from this seismic quiescence is an issue of debate with implications for earthquake mechanics and seismic hazards. Historically, the SFBR has not experienced one complete earthquake cycle (i.e., the accumulation of stress, its release primarily as coseismic slip during surface‐faulting earthquakes, its re‐accumulation in the interval following, and its subsequent rerelease). The historical record of earthquake occurrence in the SFBR appears to be complete at about M 5.5 back to 1850 (Bakun, 1999). For large events, the record may be complete back to 1776, which represents about half a cycle. Paleoseismic data provide a more complete view of the most recent pre‐1906 SFBR earthquake cycle, extending it back to about 1600. Using these, we have developed estimates of magnitude and seismic moment for alternative sequences of surface‐faulting paleoearthquakes occurring between 1600 and 1776 on the region’s major faults. From these we calculate seismic moment and moment release rates for different time intervals between 1600 and 2012. These show the variability in moment release and suggest that, in the SFBR regional plate boundary, stress can be released on a single fault in great earthquakes such as that in 1906 and in multiple ruptures distributed on the regional plate boundary fault system on a decadal time scale.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Petukhin, A.; Galvez, P.; Somerville, P.; Ampuero, J. P.
2017-12-01
We perform earthquake cycle simulations to study the characteristics of source scaling relations and strong ground motions and in multi-segmented fault ruptures. For earthquake cycle modeling, a quasi-dynamic solver (QDYN, Luo et al, 2016) is used to nucleate events and the fully dynamic solver (SPECFEM3D, Galvez et al., 2014, 2016) is used to simulate earthquake ruptures. The Mw 7.3 Landers earthquake has been chosen as a target earthquake to validate our methodology. The SCEC fault geometry for the three-segmented Landers rupture is included and extended at both ends to a total length of 200 km. We followed the 2-D spatial correlated Dc distributions based on Hillers et. al. (2007) that associates Dc distribution with different degrees of fault maturity. The fault maturity is related to the variability of Dc on a microscopic scale. Large variations of Dc represents immature faults and lower variations of Dc represents mature faults. Moreover we impose a taper (a-b) at the fault edges and limit the fault depth to 15 km. Using these settings, earthquake cycle simulations are performed to nucleate seismic events on different sections of the fault, and dynamic rupture modeling is used to propagate the ruptures. The fault segmentation brings complexity into the rupture process. For instance, the change of strike between fault segments enhances strong variations of stress. In fact, Oglesby and Mai (2012) show the normal stress varies from positive (clamping) to negative (unclamping) between fault segments, which leads to favorable or unfavorable conditions for rupture growth. To replicate these complexities and the effect of fault segmentation in the rupture process, we perform earthquake cycles with dynamic rupture modeling and generate events similar to the Mw 7.3 Landers earthquake. We extract the asperities of these events and analyze the scaling relations between rupture area, average slip and combined area of asperities versus moment magnitude. Finally, the
Quasi-static earthquake cycle simulation based on nonlinear viscoelastic finite element analyses
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Agata, R.; Ichimura, T.; Hyodo, M.; Barbot, S.; Hori, T.
2017-12-01
To explain earthquake generation processes, simulation methods of earthquake cycles have been studied. For such simulations, the combination of the rate- and state-dependent friction law at the fault plane and the boundary integral method based on Green's function in an elastic half space is widely used (e.g. Hori 2009; Barbot et al. 2012). In this approach, stress change around the fault plane due to crustal deformation can be computed analytically, while the effects of complex physics such as mantle rheology and gravity are generally not taken into account. To consider such effects, we seek to develop an earthquake cycle simulation combining crustal deformation computation based on the finite element (FE) method with the rate- and state-dependent friction law. Since the drawback of this approach is the computational cost associated with obtaining numerical solutions, we adopt a recently developed fast and scalable FE solver (Ichimura et al. 2016), which assumes use of supercomputers, to solve the problem in a realistic time. As in the previous approach, we solve the governing equations consisting of the rate- and state-dependent friction law. In solving the equations, we compute stress changes along the fault plane due to crustal deformation using FE simulation, instead of computing them by superimposing slip response function as in the previous approach. In stress change computation, we take into account nonlinear viscoelastic deformation in the asthenosphere. In the presentation, we will show simulation results in a normative three-dimensional problem, where a circular-shaped velocity-weakening area is set in a square-shaped fault plane. The results with and without nonlinear viscosity in the asthenosphere will be compared. We also plan to apply the developed code to simulate the post-earthquake deformation of a megathrust earthquake, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Acknowledgment: The results were obtained using the K computer at the RIKEN (Proposal number
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wei, M.
2016-12-01
Progress towards a quantitative and predictive understanding of the earthquake behavior can be achieved by improved understanding of earthquake cycles. However, it is hindered by the long repeat times (100s to 1000s of years) of the largest earthquakes on most faults. At fast-spreading oceanic transform faults, the typical repeating time ranges from 5-20 years, making them a unique tectonic environment for studying the earthquake cycle. One important observation on OTFs is the quasi-periodicity and the spatial-temporal clustering of large earthquakes: same fault segment ruptured repeatedly at a near constant interval and nearby segments ruptured during a short time period. This has been observed on the Gofar and Discovery faults in the East Pacific Rise. Between 1992 and 2014, five clusters of M6 earthquakes occurred on the Gofar and Discovery fault system with recurrence intervals of 4-6 years. Each cluster consisted of a westward migration of seismicity from the Discovery to Gofar segment within a 2-year period, providing strong evidence for spatial-temporal clustering of large OTFs earthquakes. I simulated earthquake cycles of oceanic transform fault in the framework of rate-and-state friction, motivated by the observations at the Gofar and Discovery faults. I focus on a model with two seismic segments, each 20 km long and 5 km wide, separated by an aseismic segment of 10 km wide. This geometry is set based on aftershock locations of the 2008 M6.0 earthquake on Gofar. The repeating large earthquake on both segments are reproduced with similar magnitude as observed. I set the state parameter differently for the two seismic segments so initially they are not synchornized. Results also show that synchronization of the two seismic patches can be achieved after several earthquake cycles when the effective normal stress or the a-b parameter is smaller than surrounding aseismic areas, both having reduced the resistance to seismic rupture in the VS segment. These
Crustal deformation in Great California Earthquake cycles
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Li, Victor C.; Rice, James R.
1987-01-01
A model in which coupling is described approximately through a generalized Elsasser model is proposed for computation of the periodic crustal deformation associated with repeated strike-slip earthquakes. The model is found to provide a more realistic physical description of tectonic loading than do simpler kinematic models. Parameters are chosen to model the 1857 and 1906 San Andreas ruptures, and predictions are found to be consistent with data on variations of contemporary surface strain and displacement rates as a function of distance from the 1857 and 1906 rupture traces. Results indicate that the asthenosphere appropriate to describe crustal deformation on the earthquake cycle time scale lies in the lower crust and perhaps the crust-mantle transition zone.
Influence of the Wenchuan earthquake on self-reported irregular menstrual cycles in surviving women.
Li, Xiao-Hong; Qin, Lang; Hu, Han; Luo, Shan; Li, Lei; Fan, Wei; Xiao, Zhun; Li, Ying-Xing; Li, Shang-Wei
2011-09-01
To explore the influence of stress induced by the Wenchuan earthquake on the menstrual cycles of surviving women. Self-reports of the menstrual cycles of 473 women that survived the Wenchuan earthquake were analyzed. Menstrual regularity was defined as menses between 21 and 35 days long. The death of a child or the loss of property and social resources was verified for all surviving women. The severity of these losses was assessed and graded as high, little, and none. About 21% of the study participants reported that their menstrual cycles became irregular after the Wenchuan earthquake, and this percentage was significantly higher than before the earthquake (6%, p < 0.05). About 30% of the surviving women with a high degree of loss in the earthquake reported menstrual irregularity after the earthquake. Association analyses showed that some stressors of the Wenchuan earthquake were strongly associated with self-reports of menstrual irregularity, including the loss of children (RR: 1.58; 95% CI: 1.09, 2.28), large amounts of property (RR: 1.49; 95% CI: 1.03, 2.15), social resources (RR: 1.34; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.80) and the hormonal contraception use (RR: 1.62; 95% CI: 1.21, 1.83). Self-reported menstrual irregularity is common in women that survived the Wenchuan earthquake, especially in those who lost children, large amounts of property and social resources.
Surface Rupture Effects on Earthquake Moment-Area Scaling Relations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Luo, Yingdi; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Miyakoshi, Ken; Irikura, Kojiro
2017-09-01
Empirical earthquake scaling relations play a central role in fundamental studies of earthquake physics and in current practice of earthquake hazard assessment, and are being refined by advances in earthquake source analysis. A scaling relation between seismic moment ( M 0) and rupture area ( A) currently in use for ground motion prediction in Japan features a transition regime of the form M 0- A 2, between the well-recognized small (self-similar) and very large (W-model) earthquake regimes, which has counter-intuitive attributes and uncertain theoretical underpinnings. Here, we investigate the mechanical origin of this transition regime via earthquake cycle simulations, analytical dislocation models and numerical crack models on strike-slip faults. We find that, even if stress drop is assumed constant, the properties of the transition regime are controlled by surface rupture effects, comprising an effective rupture elongation along-dip due to a mirror effect and systematic changes of the shape factor relating slip to stress drop. Based on this physical insight, we propose a simplified formula to account for these effects in M 0- A scaling relations for strike-slip earthquakes.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hampel, Andrea; Hetzel, Ralf
2013-04-01
The friction coefficient is a key parameter for the slip evolution of faults, but how temporal changes in friction affect fault slip is still poorly known. By using three-dimensional numerical models with a thrust fault that is alternately locked and released, we show that variations in the friction coefficient affect both coseismic and long-term fault slip (Hampel and Hetzel, 2012). Decreasing the friction coefficient by 5% while keeping the duration of the interseismic phase constant leads to a four-fold increase in coseismic slip, whereas a 5% increase nearly suppresses slip. A gradual decrease or increase of friction over several earthquake cycles (1-5% per earthquake) considerably alters the cumulative fault slip. In nature, the slip deficit (surplus) resulting from variations in the friction coefficient would presumably be compensated by a longer (shorter) interseismic phase, but the magnitude of the changes required for compensation render variations of the friction coefficient of >5% unlikely. Reference Hampel, A., R. Hetzel (2012) Temporal variation in fault friction and its effects on the slip evolution of a thrust fault over several earthquake cycles. Terra Nova, 24, 357-362, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3121.2012.01073.x.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dolan, James F.; Meade, Brendan J.
2017-12-01
Comparison of preevent geodetic and geologic rates in three large-magnitude (Mw = 7.6-7.9) strike-slip earthquakes reveals a wide range of behaviors. Specifically, geodetic rates of 26-28 mm/yr for the North Anatolian fault along the 1999 MW = 7.6 Izmit rupture are ˜40% faster than Holocene geologic rates. In contrast, geodetic rates of ˜6-8 mm/yr along the Denali fault prior to the 2002 MW = 7.9 Denali earthquake are only approximately half as fast as the latest Pleistocene-Holocene geologic rate of ˜12 mm/yr. In the third example where a sufficiently long pre-earthquake geodetic time series exists, the geodetic and geologic rates along the 2001 MW = 7.8 Kokoxili rupture on the Kunlun fault are approximately equal at ˜11 mm/yr. These results are not readily explicable with extant earthquake-cycle modeling, suggesting that they may instead be due to some combination of regional kinematic fault interactions, temporal variations in the strength of lithospheric-scale shear zones, and/or variations in local relative plate motion rate. Whatever the exact causes of these variable behaviors, these observations indicate that either the ratio of geodetic to geologic rates before an earthquake may not be diagnostic of the time to the next earthquake, as predicted by many rheologically based geodynamic models of earthquake-cycle behavior, or different behaviors characterize different fault systems in a manner that is not yet understood or predictable.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Allison, K. L.; Dunham, E. M.
2017-12-01
We simulate earthquake cycles on a 2D strike-slip fault, modeling both rate-and-state fault friction and an off-fault nonlinear power-law rheology. The power-law rheology involves an effective viscosity that is a function of temperature and stress, and therefore varies both spatially and temporally. All phases of the earthquake cycle are simulated, allowing the model to spontaneously generate earthquakes, and to capture frictional afterslip and postseismic and interseismic viscous flow. We investigate the interaction between fault slip and bulk viscous flow, using experimentally-based flow laws for quartz-diorite in the crust and olivine in the mantle, representative of the Mojave Desert region in Southern California. We first consider a suite of three linear geotherms which are constant in time, with dT/dz = 20, 25, and 30 K/km. Though the simulations produce very different deformation styles in the lower crust, ranging from significant interseismc fault creep to purely bulk viscous flow, they have almost identical earthquake recurrence interval, nucleation depth, and down-dip coseismic slip limit. This indicates that bulk viscous flow and interseismic fault creep load the brittle crust similarly. The simulations also predict unrealistically high stresses in the upper crust, resulting from the fact that the lower crust and upper mantle are relatively weak far from the fault, and from the relatively small role that basal tractions on the base of the crust play in the force balance of the lithosphere. We also find that for the warmest model, the effective viscosity varies by an order of magnitude in the interseismic period, whereas for the cooler models it remains roughly constant. Because the rheology is highly sensitive to changes in temperature, in addition to the simulations with constant temperature we also consider the effect of heat generation. We capture both frictional heat generation and off-fault viscous shear heating, allowing these in turn to alter the
Earthquake cycle deformation in the Tibetan plateau with a weak mid-crustal layer
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
DeVries, Phoebe M. R.; Meade, Brendan J.
2013-06-01
observations of interseismic deformation across the Tibetan plateau contain information about both tectonic and earthquake cycle processes. Time-variations in surface velocities between large earthquakes are sensitive to the rheological structure of the subseismogenic crust, and, in particular, the viscosity of the middle and lower crust. Here we develop a semianalytic solution for time-dependent interseismic velocities resulting from viscoelastic stress relaxation in a localized midcrustal layer in response to forcing by a sequence of periodic earthquakes. Earthquake cycle models with a weak midcrustal layer exhibit substantially more near-fault preseismic strain localization than do classic two-layer models at short (<100 yr) Maxwell times. We apply both this three-layer model and the classic two-layer model to geodetic observations before and after the 1997 MW = 7.6 Manyi and 2001 MW = 7.8 Kokoxili strike-slip earthquakes in Tibet to estimate the viscosity of the crust below a 20 km thick seismogenic layer. For these events, interseismic stress relaxation in a weak (viscosity ≤1018.5 Paṡs) and thin (height ≤20 km) midcrustal layer explains observations of both preseismic near-fault strain localization and rapid (>50 mm/yr) postseismic velocities in the years following the coseismic ruptures. We suggest that earthquake cycle models with a localized midcrustal layer can simultaneously explain both preseismic and postseismic geodetic observations with a single Maxwell viscosity, while the classic two-layer model requires a rheology with multiple relaxation time scales.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sobolev, Stephan V.; Muldashev, Iskander A.
2017-12-01
Subduction is substantially multiscale process where the stresses are built by long-term tectonic motions, modified by sudden jerky deformations during earthquakes, and then restored by following multiple relaxation processes. Here we develop a cross-scale thermomechanical model aimed to simulate the subduction process from 1 min to million years' time scale. The model employs elasticity, nonlinear transient viscous rheology, and rate-and-state friction. It generates spontaneous earthquake sequences and by using an adaptive time step algorithm, recreates the deformation process as observed naturally during the seismic cycle and multiple seismic cycles. The model predicts that viscosity in the mantle wedge drops by more than three orders of magnitude during the great earthquake with a magnitude above 9. As a result, the surface velocities just an hour or day after the earthquake are controlled by viscoelastic relaxation in the several hundred km of mantle landward of the trench and not by the afterslip localized at the fault as is currently believed. Our model replicates centuries-long seismic cycles exhibited by the greatest earthquakes and is consistent with the postseismic surface displacements recorded after the Great Tohoku Earthquake. We demonstrate that there is no contradiction between extremely low mechanical coupling at the subduction megathrust in South Chile inferred from long-term geodynamic models and appearance of the largest earthquakes, like the Great Chile 1960 Earthquake.
Deformation cycles of subduction earthquakes in a viscoelastic Earth.
Wang, Kelin; Hu, Yan; He, Jiangheng
2012-04-18
Subduction zones produce the largest earthquakes. Over the past two decades, space geodesy has revolutionized our view of crustal deformation between consecutive earthquakes. The short time span of modern measurements necessitates comparative studies of subduction zones that are at different stages of the deformation cycle. Piecing together geodetic 'snapshots' from different subduction zones leads to a unifying picture in which the deformation is controlled by both the short-term (years) and long-term (decades and centuries) viscous behaviour of the mantle. Traditional views based on elastic models, such as coseismic deformation being a mirror image of interseismic deformation, are being thoroughly revised.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rolandone, F.; Bürgmann, R.; Nadeau, R.; Freed, A.
2003-12-01
We have demonstrated that in the aftermath of large earthquakes, the depth extent of aftershocks shows an immediate deepening from pre-earthquake levels, followed by a time-dependent postseismic shallowing. We use these seismic data to constrain the variation of the depth of the seismic-aseismic transition with time throughout the earthquake cycle. Most studies of the seismic-aseismic transition have focussed on the effect of temperature and/or lithology on the transition either from brittle faulting to viscous flow or from unstable to stable sliding. They have shown that the maximum depth of seismic activity is well correlated with the spatial variations of these two parameters. However, little has been done to examine how the maximum depth of seismogenic faulting varies locally, at the scale of a fault segment, during the course of the earthquake cycle. Geologic and laboratory observations indicate that the depth of the seismic-aseismic transition should vary with strain rate and thus change with time throughout the earthquake cycle. We quantify the time-dependent variations in the depth of seismicity on various strike-slip faults in California before and after large earthquakes. We specifically investigate (1) the deepening of the aftershocks relative to the background seismicity, (2) the time constant of the postseismic shallowing of the deepest earthquakes, and (3) the correlation of the time-dependent pattern with the coseismic slip distribution and the expected stress increase. Together with geodetic measurements, these seismological observations form the basis for developing more sophisticated models for the mechanical evolution of strike-slip shear zones during the earthquake cycle. We develop non-linear viscoelastic models, for which the brittle-ductile transition is not fixed, but varies with assumed temperature and calculated stress gradients. We use them to place constraints on strain rate at depth, on time-dependent rheology, and on the partitioning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mitsui, Y.; Hirahara, K.
2006-12-01
There have been a lot of studies that simulate large earthquakes occurring quasi-periodically at a subduction zone, based on the laboratory-derived rate-and-state friction law [eg. Kato and Hirasawa (1997), Hirose and Hirahara (2002)]. All of them assume that pore fluid pressure in the fault zone is constant. However, in the fault zone, pore fluid pressure changes suddenly, due to coseismic pore dilatation [Marone (1990)] and thermal pressurization [Mase and Smith (1987)]. If pore fluid pressure drops and effective normal stress rises, fault slip is decelerated. Inversely, if pore fluid pressure rises and effective normal stress drops, fault slip is accelerated. The effect of pore fluid may cause slow slip events and low-frequency tremor [Kodaira et al. (2004), Shelly et al. (2006)]. For a simple spring model, how pore dilatation affects slip instability was investigated [Segall and Rice (1995), Sleep (1995)]. When the rate of the slip becomes high, pore dilatation occurs and pore pressure drops, and the rate of the slip is restrained. Then the inflow of pore fluid recovers the pore pressure. We execute 2D earthquake cycle simulations at a subduction zone, taking into account such changes of pore fluid pressure following Segall and Rice (1995), in addition to the numerical scheme in Kato and Hirasawa (1997). We do not adopt hydrostatic pore pressure but excess pore pressure for initial condition, because upflow of dehydrated water seems to exist at a subduction zone. In our model, pore fluid is confined to the fault damage zone and flows along the plate interface. The smaller the flow rate is, the later pore pressure recovers. Since effective normal stress keeps larger, the fault slip is decelerated and stress drop becomes smaller. Therefore the smaller flow rate along the fault zone leads to the shorter earthquake recurrence time. Thus, not only the frictional parameters and the subduction rate but also the fault zone permeability affects the recurrence time of
Aseismic Slip Throughout the Earthquake Cycle in Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rica
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Voss, N. K.; Liu, Z.; Hobbs, T. E.; Schwartz, S. Y.; Malservisi, R.; Dixon, T. H.; Protti, M.
2017-12-01
Geodetically resolved Slow Slip Events (SSE), a large M7.6 earthquake, and afterslip have all been documented in the last 16 years of observation in Nicoya, Costa Rica. We present a synthesis of the observations of observed aseismic slip behavior. SSEs in Nicoya are observed both during the late inter-seismic period and the post-seismic period, despite ongoing post-seismic phenomena. While recurrence rates appear unchanged by position within earthquake cycle, SSE behavior does vary before and after the event. We discuss how afterslip may be responsible for this change in behavior. We also present observations of a pre-earthquake transient observed starting 6 months prior to the M7.6 megathrust earthquake. This earthquake takes place within an asperity that is surrounded by regions which previously underwent slow slip behavior. We compare how this pre-earthquake transient, modeled as aseismic slip, differs from observations of typical Nicoya SSEs. Finally, we attempt to explain the segmentation of behaviors in Costa Rica with a simple frictional model.
Murray, J.; Langbein, J.
2006-01-01
Parkfield, California, which experienced M 6.0 earthquakes in 1934, 1966, and 2004, is one of the few locales for which geodetic observations span multiple earthquake cycles. We undertake a comprehensive study of deformation over the most recent earthquake cycle and explore the results in the context of geodetic data collected prior to the 1966 event. Through joint inversion of the variety of Parkfield geodetic measurements (trilateration, two-color laser, and Global Positioning System), including previously unpublished two-color data, we estimate the spatial distribution of slip and slip rate along the San Andreas using a fault geometry based on precisely relocated seismicity. Although the three most recent Parkfield earthquakes appear complementary in their along-strike distributions of slip, they do not produce uniform strain release along strike over multiple seismic cycles. Since the 1934 earthquake, more than 1 m of slip deficit has accumulated on portions of the fault that slipped in the 1966 and 2004 earthquakes, and an average of 2 m of slip deficit exists on the 33 km of the fault southeast of Gold Hill to be released in a future, perhaps larger, earthquake. It appears that the fault is capable of partially releasing stored strain in moderate earthquakes, maintaining a disequilibrium through multiple earthquake cycles. This complicates the application of simple earthquake recurrence models that assume only the strain accumulated since the most recent event is relevant to the size or timing of an upcoming earthquake. Our findings further emphasize that accumulated slip deficit is not sufficient for earthquake nucleation.
Uchida, Naoki; Matsuzawa, Toru; Ellsworth, William L.; Imanishi, Kazutoshi; Shimamura, Kouhei; Hasegawa, Akira
2012-01-01
We have estimated the source parameters of interplate earthquakes in an earthquake cluster off Kamaishi, NE Japan over two cycles of M~ 4.9 repeating earthquakes. The M~ 4.9 earthquake sequence is composed of nine events that occurred since 1957 which have a strong periodicity (5.5 ± 0.7 yr) and constant size (M4.9 ± 0.2), probably due to stable sliding around the source area (asperity). Using P- and S-wave traveltime differentials estimated from waveform cross-spectra, three M~ 4.9 main shocks and 50 accompanying microearthquakes (M1.5–3.6) from 1995 to 2008 were precisely relocated. The source sizes, stress drops and slip amounts for earthquakes of M2.4 or larger were also estimated from corner frequencies and seismic moments using simultaneous inversion of stacked spectral ratios. Relocation using the double-difference method shows that the slip area of the 2008 M~ 4.9 main shock is co-located with those of the 1995 and 2001 M~ 4.9 main shocks. Four groups of microearthquake clusters are located in and around the mainshock slip areas. Of these, two clusters are located at the deeper and shallower edge of the slip areas and most of these microearthquakes occurred repeatedly in the interseismic period. Two other clusters located near the centre of the mainshock source areas are not as active as the clusters near the edge. The occurrence of these earthquakes is limited to the latter half of the earthquake cycles of the M~ 4.9 main shock. Similar spatial and temporal features of microearthquake occurrence were seen for two other cycles before the 1995 M5.0 and 1990 M5.0 main shocks based on group identification by waveform similarities. Stress drops of microearthquakes are 3–11 MPa and are relatively constant within each group during the two earthquake cycles. The 2001 and 2008 M~ 4.9 earthquakes have larger stress drops of 41 and 27 MPa, respectively. These results show that the stress drop is probably determined by the fault properties and does not change
Geodetic Insights into the Earthquake Cycle in a Fold and Thrust Belt
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ingleby, T. F.; Wright, T. J.; Butterworth, V.; Weiss, J. R.; Elliott, J.
2017-12-01
Geodetic measurements are often sparse in time (e.g. individual interferograms) and/or space (e.g. GNSS stations), adversely affecting our ability to capture the spatiotemporal detail required to study the earthquake cycle in complex tectonic systems such as subaerial fold and thrust belts. In an effort to overcome these limitations we combine 3 generations of SAR satellite data (ERS 1/2, Envisat & Sentinel-1a/b) to obtain a 25 year, high-resolution surface displacement time series over the frontal portion of an active fold and thrust belt near Quetta, Pakistan where a Mw 7.1 earthquake doublet occurred in 1997. With these data we capture a significant portion of the seismic cycle including the interseismic, coseismic and postseismic phases. Each satellite time series has been referenced to the first ERS-1 SAR epoch by fitting a ground deformation model to the data. This allows us to separate deformation associated with each phase and to examine their relative roles in accommodating strain and creating topography, and to explore the relationship between the earthquake cycle and critical taper wedge mechanics. Modeling of the coseismic deformation suggests a long, thin rupture with rupture length 7 times greater than rupture width. Rupture was confined to a 20-30 degree north-northeast dipping reverse fault or ramp at depth, which may be connecting two weak decollements at approximately 8 km and 13 km depth. Alternatively, intersections between the coseismic fault plane and pre-existing steeper splay faults underlying folds may have played a significant role in inhibiting rupture, as evidenced by intersection points bordering the rupture. These fault intersections effectively partition the fault system down-dip and enable long, thin ruptures. Postseismic deformation is manifest as uplift across short-wavelength folds at the thrust front, with displacement rates decreasing with time since the earthquake. Broader patterns of postseismic uplift are also observed
Viscoelastic shear zone model of a strike-slip earthquake cycle
Pollitz, F.F.
2001-01-01
I examine the behavior of a two-dimensional (2-D) strike-slip fault system embedded in a 1-D elastic layer (schizosphere) overlying a uniform viscoelastic half-space (plastosphere) and within the boundaries of a finite width shear zone. The viscoelastic coupling model of Savage and Prescott [1978] considers the viscoelastic response of this system, in the absence of the shear zone boundaries, to an earthquake occurring within the upper elastic layer, steady slip beneath a prescribed depth, and the superposition of the responses of multiple earthquakes with characteristic slip occurring at regular intervals. So formulated, the viscoelastic coupling model predicts that sufficiently long after initiation of the system, (1) average fault-parallel velocity at any point is the average slip rate of that side of the fault and (2) far-field velocities equal the same constant rate. Because of the sensitivity to the mechanical properties of the schizosphere-plastosphere system (i.e., elastic layer thickness, plastosphere viscosity), this model has been used to infer such properties from measurements of interseismic velocity. Such inferences exploit the predicted behavior at a known time within the earthquake cycle. By modifying the viscoelastic coupling model to satisfy the additional constraint that the absolute velocity at prescribed shear zone boundaries is constant, I find that even though the time-averaged behavior remains the same, the spatiotemporal pattern of surface deformation (particularly its temporal variation within an earthquake cycle) is markedly different from that predicted by the conventional viscoelastic coupling model. These differences are magnified as plastosphere viscosity is reduced or as the recurrence interval of periodic earthquakes is lengthened. Application to the interseismic velocity field along the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault suggests that the region behaves mechanically like a ???600-km-wide shear zone accommodating 50 mm/yr fault
Earthquake Cycle Simulations with Rate-and-State Friction and Linear and Nonlinear Viscoelasticity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Allison, K. L.; Dunham, E. M.
2016-12-01
We have implemented a parallel code that simultaneously models both rate-and-state friction on a strike-slip fault and off-fault viscoelastic deformation throughout the earthquake cycle in 2D. Because we allow fault slip to evolve with a rate-and-state friction law and do not impose the depth of the brittle-to-ductile transition, we are able to address: the physical processes limiting the depth of large ruptures (with hazard implications); the degree of strain localization with depth; the relative partitioning of fault slip and viscous deformation in the brittle-to-ductile transition zone; and the relative contributions of afterslip and viscous flow to postseismic surface deformation. The method uses a discretization that accommodates variable off-fault material properties, depth-dependent frictional properties, and linear and nonlinear viscoelastic rheologies. All phases of the earthquake cycle are modeled, allowing the model to spontaneously generate earthquakes, and to capture afterslip and postseismic viscous flow. We compare the effects of a linear Maxwell rheology, often used in geodetic models, with those of a nonlinear power law rheology, which laboratory data indicates more accurately represents the lower crust and upper mantle. The viscosity of the Maxwell rheology is set by power law rheological parameters with an assumed a geotherm and strain rate, producing a viscosity that exponentially decays with depth and is constant in time. In contrast, the power law rheology will evolve an effective viscosity that is a function of the temperature profile and the stress state, and therefore varies both spatially and temporally. We will also integrate the energy equation for the thermomechanical problem, capturing frictional heat generation on the fault and off-fault viscous shear heating, and allowing these in turn to alter the effective viscosity.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hearn, E. H.
2013-12-01
Geodetic surface velocity data show that after an energetic but brief phase of postseismic deformation, surface deformation around most major strike-slip faults tends to be localized and stationary, and can be modeled with a buried elastic dislocation creeping at or near the Holocene slip rate. Earthquake-cycle models incorporating an elastic layer over a Maxwell viscoelastic halfspace cannot explain this, even when the earliest postseismic deformation is ignored or modeled (e.g., as frictional afterslip). Models with heterogeneously distributed low-viscosity materials or power-law rheologies perform better, but to explain all phases of earthquake-cycle deformation, Burgers viscoelastic materials with extreme differences between their Maxwell and Kelvin element viscosities seem to be required. I present a suite of earthquake-cycle models to show that postseismic and interseismic deformation may be reconciled for a range of lithosphere architectures and rheologies if finite rupture length is taken into account. These models incorporate high-viscosity lithosphere optionally cut by a viscous shear zone, and a lower-viscosity mantle asthenosphere (all with a range of viscoelastic rheologies and parameters). Characteristic earthquakes with Mw = 7.0 - 7.9 are investigated, with interseismic intervals adjusted to maintain the same slip rate (10, 20 or 40 mm/yr). I find that a high-viscosity lower crust/uppermost mantle (or a high viscosity per unit width viscous shear zone at these depths) is required for localized and stationary interseismic deformation. For Mw = 7.9 characteristic earthquakes, the shear zone viscosity per unit width in the lower crust and uppermost mantle must exceed about 10^16 Pa s /m. For a layered viscoelastic model the lower crust and uppermost mantle effective viscosity must exceed about 10^20 Pa s. The range of admissible shear zone and lower lithosphere rheologies broadens considerably for faults producing more frequent but smaller
Viscoelastic Earthquake Cycle Simulation with Memory Variable Method
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hirahara, K.; Ohtani, M.
2017-12-01
There have so far been no EQ (earthquake) cycle simulations, based on RSF (rate and state friction) laws, in viscoelastic media, except for Kato (2002), who simulated cycles on a 2-D vertical strike-slip fault, and showed nearly the same cycles as those in elastic cases. The viscoelasticity could, however, give more effects on large dip-slip EQ cycles. In a boundary element approach, stress is calculated using a hereditary integral of stress relaxation function and slip deficit rate, where we need the past slip rates, leading to huge computational costs. This is a cause for almost no simulations in viscoelastic media. We have investigated the memory variable method utilized in numerical computation of wave propagation in dissipative media (e.g., Moczo and Kristek, 2005). In this method, introducing memory variables satisfying 1st order differential equations, we need no hereditary integrals in stress calculation and the computational costs are the same order of those in elastic cases. Further, Hirahara et al. (2012) developed the iterative memory variable method, referring to Taylor et al. (1970), in EQ cycle simulations in linear viscoelastic media. In this presentation, first, we introduce our method in EQ cycle simulations and show the effect of the linear viscoelasticity on stick-slip cycles in a 1-DOF block-SLS (standard linear solid) model, where the elastic spring of the traditional block-spring model is replaced by SLS element and we pull, in a constant rate, the block obeying RSF law. In this model, the memory variable stands for the displacement of the dash-pot in SLS element. The use of smaller viscosity reduces the recurrence time to a minimum value. The smaller viscosity means the smaller relaxation time, which makes the stress recovery quicker, leading to the smaller recurrence time. Second, we show EQ cycles on a 2-D dip-slip fault with the dip angel of 20 degrees in an elastic layer with thickness of 40 km overriding a Maxwell viscoelastic half
Time-Varying Upper-Plate Deformation during the Megathrust Subduction Earthquake Cycle
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Furlong, Kevin P.; Govers, Rob; Herman, Matthew
2015-04-01
Over the past several decades of the WEGENER era, our abilities to observe and image the deformational behavior of the upper plate in megathrust subduction zones has dramatically improved. Several intriguing inferences can be made from these observations including apparent lateral variations in locking along subduction zones, which differs from interseismic to coseismic periods; the significant magnitude of post-earthquake deformation (e.g. following the 20U14 Mw Iquique, Chile earthquake, observed on-land GPS post-EQ displacements are comparable to the co-seismic displacements); and incompatibilities between rates of slip deficit accumulation and resulting earthquake co-seismic slip (e.g. pre-Tohoku, inferred rates of slip deficit accumulation on the megathrust significantly exceed slip amounts for the ~ 1000 year recurrence.) Modeling capabilities have grown from fitting simple elastic accumulation/rebound curves to sparse data to having spatially dense continuous time series that allow us to infer details of plate boundary coupling, rheology-driven transient deformation, and partitioning among inter-earthquake and co-seismic displacements. In this research we utilize a 2D numerical modeling to explore the time-varying deformational behavior of subduction zones during the earthquake cycle with an emphasis on upper-plate and plate interface behavior. We have used a simplified model configuration to isolate fundamental processes associated with the earthquake cycle, rather than attempting to fit details of specific megathrust zones. Using a simple subduction geometry, but realistic rheologic layering we are evaluating the time-varying displacement and stress response through a multi-earthquake cycle history. We use a simple model configuration - an elastic subducting slab, an elastic upper plate (shallower than 40 km), and a visco-elastic upper plate (deeper than 40 km). This configuration leads to an upper plate that acts as a deforming elastic beam at inter-earthquake
Models of recurrent strike-slip earthquake cycles and the state of crustal stress
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lyzenga, Gregory A.; Raefsky, Arthur; Mulligan, Stephanie G.
1991-01-01
Numerical models of the strike-slip earthquake cycle, assuming a viscoelastic asthenosphere coupling model, are examined. The time-dependent simulations incorporate a stress-driven fault, which leads to tectonic stress fields and earthquake recurrence histories that are mutually consistent. Single-fault simulations with constant far-field plate motion lead to a nearly periodic earthquake cycle and a distinctive spatial distribution of crustal shear stress. The predicted stress distribution includes a local minimum in stress at depths less than typical seismogenic depths. The width of this stress 'trough' depends on the magnitude of crustal stress relative to asthenospheric drag stresses. The models further predict a local near-fault stress maximum at greater depths, sustained by the cyclic transfer of strain from the elastic crust to the ductile asthenosphere. Models incorporating both low-stress and high-stress fault strength assumptions are examined, under Newtonian and non-Newtonian rheology assumptions. Model results suggest a preference for low-stress (a shear stress level of about 10 MPa) fault models, in agreement with previous estimates based on heat flow measurements and other stress indicators.
Different Phases of Earthquake Cycle Reflected in GPS Measured Crustal Deformations along the Andes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Khazaradze, G.; Klotz, J.
2001-12-01
The South American Geodynamic Activities (SAGA) project was initiated in 1993 by the GeoForschungsZentrum together with host organizations in Argentina and Chile with the main objective of studying the kinematics and dynamics of present-day deformation processes along the central and southern Andes. Currently the SAGA network consists of 230 geodetic markers spanning more than 2000 km long distance from Peru/Chile border in the north to Cape Horn in the south. The majority of the observed crustal deformation field is relatively homogenous: roughly parallel to the plate convergence direction and decreasing in magnitude away from the deformation front. This pattern is characteristic for the \\textit{inter-seismic} phase of earthquake deformation cycle and can be explained by the elastic strain accumulation due to locking of the thrust interface between the subducting Nazca and the overriding South America plates. However, in addition to the dominant inter-seismic signal, close examination of the observed velocity field also reveals significant spatial and temporal variations, contrary to the commonly used assumption of constant deformation rates. This variation is especially pronounced for the measurements in the vicinity of the 1995 Mw8.0 Antofagasta earthquake (22{° }S-26{° }S). Here, after capturing up to 1 meters of \\textit{co-seismic} displacements associated with this event, the analysis of data obtained during the three following field campaigns (1996-1999), reveals highly time dependent deformation pattern. This can be explained by the decreasing importance of \\textit{post-seismic} effects of the Antofagasta event relative to the increasing dominance of the inter-seismic phase of subduction. Perhaps, even more interesting time dependent observations have been detected in the southern part the SAGA network (38{° }S-43{° }S).Here, after 35 years of the occurrence of the 1960 Mw9.5 Chile earthquake, we still see the continuing post-seismic effects of this
Characteristics of strong ground motion generation areas by fully dynamic earthquake cycles
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Galvez, P.; Somerville, P.; Ampuero, J. P.; Petukhin, A.; Yindi, L.
2016-12-01
During recent subduction zone earthquakes (2010 Mw 8.8 Maule and 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku), high frequency ground motion radiation has been detected in deep regions of seismogenic zones. By semblance analysis of wave packets, Kurahashi & Irikura (2013) found strong ground motion generation areas (SMGAs) located in the down dip region of the 2011 Tohoku rupture. To reproduce the rupture sequence of SMGA's and replicate their rupture time and ground motions, we extended previous work on dynamic rupture simulations with slip reactivation (Galvez et al, 2016). We adjusted stresses on the most southern SMGAs of Kurahashi & Irikura (2013) model to reproduce the observed peak ground velocity recorded at seismic stations along Japan for periods up to 5 seconds. To generate higher frequency ground motions we input the rupture time, final slip and slip velocity of the dynamic model into the stochastic ground motion generator of Graves & Pitarka (2010). Our results are in agreement with the ground motions recorded at the KiK-net and K-NET stations.While we reproduced the recorded ground motions of the 2011 Tohoku event, it is unknown whether the characteristics and location of SMGA's will persist in future large earthquakes in this region. Although the SMGA's have large peak slip velocities, the areas of largest final slip are located elsewhere. To elucidate whether this anti-correlation persists in time, we conducted earthquake cycle simulations and analysed the spatial correlation of peak slip velocities, stress drops and final slip of main events. We also investigated whether or not the SMGA's migrate to other regions of the seismic zone.To perform this study, we coupled the quasi-dynamic boundary element solver QDYN (Luo & Ampuero, 2015) and the dynamic spectral element solver SPECFEM3D (Galvez et al., 2014; 2016). The workflow alternates between inter-seismic periods solved with QDYN and coseismic periods solved with SPECFEM3D, with automated switch based on slip rate
A Benchmarking setup for Coupled Earthquake Cycle - Dynamic Rupture - Tsunami Simulations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Behrens, Joern; Bader, Michael; van Dinther, Ylona; Gabriel, Alice-Agnes; Madden, Elizabeth H.; Ulrich, Thomas; Uphoff, Carsten; Vater, Stefan; Wollherr, Stephanie; van Zelst, Iris
2017-04-01
We developed a simulation framework for coupled physics-based earthquake rupture generation with tsunami propagation and inundation on a simplified subduction zone system for the project "Advanced Simulation of Coupled Earthquake and Tsunami Events" (ASCETE, funded by the Volkswagen Foundation). Here, we present a benchmarking setup that can be used for complex rupture models. The workflow begins with a 2D seismo-thermo-mechanical earthquake cycle model representing long term deformation along a planar, shallowly dipping subduction zone interface. Slip instabilities that approximate earthquakes arise spontaneously along the subduction zone interface in this model. The absolute stress field and material properties for a single slip event are used as initial conditions for a dynamic earthquake rupture model.The rupture simulation is performed with SeisSol, which uses an ADER discontinuous Galerkin discretization scheme with an unstructured tetrahedral mesh. The seafloor displacements resulting from this rupture are transferred to the tsunami model with a simple coastal run-up profile. An adaptive mesh discretizing the shallow water equations with a Runge-Kutta discontinuous Galerkin (RKDG) scheme subsequently allows for an accurate and efficient representation of the tsunami evolution and inundation at the coast. This workflow allows for evaluation of how the rupture behavior affects the hydrodynamic wave propagation and coastal inundation. We present coupled results for differing earthquake scenarios. Examples include megathrust only ruptures versus ruptures with splay fault branching off the megathrust near the surface. Coupling to the tsunami simulation component is performed either dynamically (time dependent) or statically, resulting in differing tsunami wave and inundation behavior. The simplified topographical setup allows for systematic parameter studies and reproducible physical studies.
Earthquake triggering, Earth's rotation variations, Meton's cycle and torques acting on the Earth.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ostrihansky, L.
2012-04-01
In contrast to unsuccessful searching (lasting over 150 years) of correlation of earthquakes with biweekly tides the author found correlation of earthquakes with sidereal 13.66 days Earth's rotation variations expressed as the length of a day (LOD) measured daily by the International Earth's Rotation Service. After short mention about earthquakes Denali Fault Alaska 3rd November 2002, M 7.9, triggered on LOD maximum and Great Sumatra earthquake 26th December 2004 triggered on LOD minimum and the full Moon, the main object of this paper are earthquakes of period 2010-VI. 2011: Haiti M 7.0 Jan. 12, 2010 on LOD minimum, Maule Chile M 8.8 Feb. 12, 2010 on LOD maximum, Sumatra and Andaman Sea region 6 earthquakes revealed from 7 on LOD minimum, New Zealand, Christchurch M 7.1 Sep. 9, 2010 on LOD minimum and Christchurch M 6.3 Feb. 21, 2011 on LOD maximum and Japan Near coast of Honshu M 9.1 March 11, 2011 on LOD minimum. I found that LOD minimums coincide with full or new Moon only twice in a year in solstices and also twice in the year with LOD maximums in equinoxes. To prove that determined coincidences of earthquakes and LOD extremes stated above are not accidental events, histograms were constructed of earthquake occurrence and their position on LOD graph deeply in the past, in some cases from the time the IERS started to measure the Earth's rotation variations in 1962. Evaluation of histograms and the Schuster's test has proven that maxima of earthquakes are triggered always in both Earth's rotation deceleration and acceleration. Backward overview of the past earthquakes revealed that the Great Sumatra earthquake Dec. 26, 2004 had its equivalent in the shape of LOD graph, full Moon position, character of aftershocks, 19 years ago in difference only one day of Dec. 27, 1985 M 6.6, proving that not only sidereal 13.66 days variations but also the 19 years Meton's cycle is the period of the earthquakes occurrence.
Quasi-dynamic Earthquake Cycle Simulation in a Viscoelastic Medium with Memory Variables
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hirahara, K.; Ohtani, M.; Shikakura, Y.
2011-12-01
Earthquake cycle simulations based on rate and state friction laws have successfully reproduced the observed complex earthquake cycles at subduction zones. Most of simulations have assumed elastic media. The lower crust and the upper mantle have, however, viscoelastic properties, which cause postseismic stress relaxation. Hence the slip evolution on the plate interfaces or the faults in long earthquake cycles is different from that in elastic media. Especially, the viscoelasticity plays an important role in the interactive occurrence of inland and great interplate earthquakes. In viscoelastic media, the stress is usually calculated by the temporal convolution of the slip response function matrix and the slip deficit rate vector, which needs the past history of slip rates at all cells. Even if properly truncating the convolution, it requires huge computations. This is why few simulation studies have considered viscoelastic media so far. In this study, we examine the method using memory variables or anelastic functions, which has been developed for the time-domain finite-difference calculation of seismic waves in a dissipative medium (e.g., Emmerich and Korn,1987; Moczo and Kristek, 2005). The procedure for stress calculation with memory variables is as follows. First, we approximate the time-domain slip response function calculated in a viscoelastic medium with a series of relaxation functions with coefficients and relaxation times derived from a generalized Maxell body model. Then we can define the time-domain material-independent memory variable or anelastic function for each relaxation mechanism. Each time-domain memory variable satisfies the first-order differential equation. As a result, we can calculate the stress simply by the product of the unrelaxed modulus and the slip deficit subtracted from the sum of memory variables without temporal convolution. With respect to computational cost, we can summarize as in the followings. Dividing the plate interface into
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Trubienko, Olga; Fleitout, Luce; Garaud, Jean-Didier; Vigny, Christophe
2013-03-01
The deformations of the overriding and subducting plates during the seismic cycle associated with large subduction earthquakes are modelled using 2D and 3D finite element techniques. A particular emphasis is put on the interseismic velocities and on the impact of the rheology of the asthenosphere. The distance over which the seismic cycle perturbs significantly the velocities depends upon the ratio of the viscosity in the asthenosphere to the period of the seismic cycle and can reach several thousand km for rheological parameters deduced from the first years of deformation after the Aceh earthquake. For a same early postseismic velocity, a Burger rheology of the asthenosphere implies a smaller duration of the postseismic phase and thus smaller interseismic velocities than a Maxwell rheology. A low viscosity wedge (LVW) modifies very significantly the predicted horizontal and vertical motions in the near and middle fields. In particular, with a LVW, the peak in vertical velocity at the end of the cycle is predicted to be no longer above the deep end of the locked section of the fault but further away, above the continentward limit of the LVW. The lateral viscosity variations linked to the presence at depth of the subducting slab affect substantially the results. The north-south interseismic compression predicted by this preliminary 2D model over more than 1500 km within the Sunda block is in good agreement with the pre-2004 velocities with respect to South-China inferred from GPS observations in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. In Japan, before the Tohoku earthquake, the eastern part of northern Honshu was subsiding while the western part was uplifting. This transition from subsidence to uplift so far away from the trench is well fitted by the predictions from our models involving a LVW. Most of the results obtained here in a 2D geometry are shown to provide a good estimate of the displacements for fault segments of finite lateral extent, with a 3D spherical
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tao, Wei; Shen, Zheng-Kang; Zhang, Yong
2016-04-01
The Longmen Shan, located in the conjunction of the eastern margin the Tibet plateau and Sichuan basin, is a typical area for studying the deformation pattern of the Tibet plateau. Following the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake (WE) rupturing the Longmen Shan Fault (LSF), a great deal of observations and studies on geology, geophysics, and geodesy have been carried out for this region, with results published successively in recent years. Using the 2D viscoelastic finite element model, introducing the rate-state friction law to the fault, this thesis makes modeling of the earthquake recurrence process and the dynamic evolutionary processes in an earthquake cycle of 10 thousand years. By analyzing the displacement, velocity, stresses, strain energy and strain energy increment fields, this work obtains the following conclusions: (1) The maximum coseismic displacement on the fault is on the surface, and the damage on the hanging wall is much more serious than that on the foot wall of the fault. If the detachment layer is absent, the coseismic displacement would be smaller and the relative displacement between the hanging wall and foot wall would also be smaller. (2) In every stage of the earthquake cycle, the velocities (especially the vertical velocities) on the hanging wall of the fault are larger than that on the food wall, and the values and the distribution patterns of the velocity fields are similar. While in the locking stage prior to the earthquake, the velocities in crust and the relative velocities between hanging wall and foot wall decrease. For the model without the detachment layer, the velocities in crust in the post-seismic stage is much larger than those in other stages. (3) The maximum principle stress and the maximum shear stress concentrate around the joint of the fault and detachment layer, therefore the earthquake would nucleate and start here. (4) The strain density distribution patterns in stages of the earthquake cycle are similar. There are two
Wrightwood and the earthquake cycle: What a long recurrence record tells us about how faults work
Weldon, R.; Scharer, K.; Fumal, T.; Biasi, G.
2004-01-01
The concept of the earthquake cycle is so well established that one often hears statements in the popular media like, "the Big One is overdue" and "the longer it waits, the bigger it will be." Surprisingly, data to critically test the variability in recurrence intervals, rupture displacements, and relationships between the two are almost nonexistent. To generate a long series of earthquake intervals and offsets, we have conducted paleoseismic investigations across the San Andreas fault near the town of Wrightwood, California, excavating 45 trenches over 18 years, and can now provide some answers to basic questions about recurrence behavior of large earthquakes. To date, we have characterized at least 30 prehistoric earthquakes in a 6000-yr-long record, complete for the past 1500 yr and for the interval 3000-1500 B.C. For the past 1500 yr, the mean recurrence interval is 105 yr (31-165 yr for individual intervals) and the mean slip is 3.2 m (0.7-7 m per event). The series is slightly more ordered than random and has a notable cluster of events, during which strain was released at 3 times the long-term average rate. Slip associated with an earthquake is not well predicted by the interval preceding it, and only the largest two earthquakes appear to affect the time interval to the next earthquake. Generally, short intervals tend to coincide with large displacements and long intervals with small displacements. The most significant correlation we find is that earthquakes are more frequent following periods of net strain accumulation spanning multiple seismic cycles. The extent of paleoearthquake ruptures may be inferred by correlating event ages between different sites along the San Andreas fault. Wrightwood and other nearby sites experience rupture that could be attributed to overlap of relatively independent segments that each behave in a more regular manner. However, the data are equally consistent with a model in which the irregular behavior seen at Wrightwood
Slow slip events in the early part of the earthquake cycle
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Voss, Nicholas K.; Malservisi, Rocco; Dixon, Timothy H.; Protti, Marino
2017-08-01
In February 2014 a
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Philibosian, B.; Meltzner, A. J.; Sieh, K.
2017-12-01
Understanding earthquake cycle processes is key to both seismic hazard and fault mechanics. A concept that has come into focus recently is that rupture segmentation and cyclicity can be complex, and that simple models of periodically repeating similar earthquakes are inadequate. The term "supercycle" has been used to describe repeating longer periods of strain accumulation that involve multiple fault ruptures. However, this term has become broadly applied, lumping together several distinct phenomena that likely have disparate underlying causes. Earthquake recurrence patterns have often been described as "clustered," but this term is also imprecise. It is necessary to develop a terminology framework that consistently and meaningfully describes all types of behavior that are observed. We divide earthquake cycle patterns into four major classes, each having different implications for seismic hazard and fault mechanics: 1) quasi-periodic similar ruptures, 2) temporally clustered similar ruptures, 3) temporally clustered complementary ruptures, also known as rupture cascades, in which neighboring fault patches fail sequentially, and 4) superimposed cycles in which neighboring fault patches have cycles with different recurrence intervals, but may occasionally rupture together. Rupture segmentation is classified as persistent, frequent, or transient depending on how reliably ruptures terminate in a given area. We discuss the paleoseismic and historical evidence currently available for each of these types of behavior on subduction zone megathrust faults worldwide. Due to the unique level of paleoseismic and paleogeodetic detail provided by the coral microatoll technique, the Sumatran Sunda megathrust provides one of the most complete records over multiple seismic cycles. Most subduction zones with sufficient data exhibit examples of persistent and frequent segmentation, with cycle patterns 1, 3, and 4 on different segments. Pattern 2 is generally confined to overlap zones
Earthquake and tsunami forecasts: Relation of slow slip events to subsequent earthquake rupture
Dixon, Timothy H.; Jiang, Yan; Malservisi, Rocco; McCaffrey, Robert; Voss, Nicholas; Protti, Marino; Gonzalez, Victor
2014-01-01
The 5 September 2012 Mw 7.6 earthquake on the Costa Rica subduction plate boundary followed a 62-y interseismic period. High-precision GPS recorded numerous slow slip events (SSEs) in the decade leading up to the earthquake, both up-dip and down-dip of seismic rupture. Deeper SSEs were larger than shallower ones and, if characteristic of the interseismic period, release most locking down-dip of the earthquake, limiting down-dip rupture and earthquake magnitude. Shallower SSEs were smaller, accounting for some but not all interseismic locking. One SSE occurred several months before the earthquake, but changes in Mohr–Coulomb failure stress were probably too small to trigger the earthquake. Because many SSEs have occurred without subsequent rupture, their individual predictive value is limited, but taken together they released a significant amount of accumulated interseismic strain before the earthquake, effectively defining the area of subsequent seismic rupture (rupture did not occur where slow slip was common). Because earthquake magnitude depends on rupture area, this has important implications for earthquake hazard assessment. Specifically, if this behavior is representative of future earthquake cycles and other subduction zones, it implies that monitoring SSEs, including shallow up-dip events that lie offshore, could lead to accurate forecasts of earthquake magnitude and tsunami potential. PMID:25404327
Earthquake and tsunami forecasts: relation of slow slip events to subsequent earthquake rupture.
Dixon, Timothy H; Jiang, Yan; Malservisi, Rocco; McCaffrey, Robert; Voss, Nicholas; Protti, Marino; Gonzalez, Victor
2014-12-02
The 5 September 2012 M(w) 7.6 earthquake on the Costa Rica subduction plate boundary followed a 62-y interseismic period. High-precision GPS recorded numerous slow slip events (SSEs) in the decade leading up to the earthquake, both up-dip and down-dip of seismic rupture. Deeper SSEs were larger than shallower ones and, if characteristic of the interseismic period, release most locking down-dip of the earthquake, limiting down-dip rupture and earthquake magnitude. Shallower SSEs were smaller, accounting for some but not all interseismic locking. One SSE occurred several months before the earthquake, but changes in Mohr-Coulomb failure stress were probably too small to trigger the earthquake. Because many SSEs have occurred without subsequent rupture, their individual predictive value is limited, but taken together they released a significant amount of accumulated interseismic strain before the earthquake, effectively defining the area of subsequent seismic rupture (rupture did not occur where slow slip was common). Because earthquake magnitude depends on rupture area, this has important implications for earthquake hazard assessment. Specifically, if this behavior is representative of future earthquake cycles and other subduction zones, it implies that monitoring SSEs, including shallow up-dip events that lie offshore, could lead to accurate forecasts of earthquake magnitude and tsunami potential.
Reasenberg, Paul A.
1997-01-01
While the damaging effects of the earthquake represent a significant social setback and economic loss, the geophysical effects have produced a wealth of data that have provided important insights into the structure and mechanics of the San Andreas Fault system. Generally, the period after a large earthquake is vitally important to monitor. During this part of the seismic cycle, the primary fault and the surrounding faults, rock bodies, and crustal fluids rapidly readjust in response to the earthquake's sudden movement. Geophysical measurements made at this time can provide unique information about fundamental properties of the fault zone, including its state of stress and the geometry and frictional/rheological properties of the faults within it. Because postseismic readjustments are rapid compared with corresponding changes occurring in the preseismic period, the amount and rate of information that is available during the postseismic period is relatively high. From a geophysical viewpoint, the occurrence of the Loma Prieta earthquake in a section of the San Andreas fault zone that is surrounded by multiple and extensive geophysical monitoring networks has produced nothing less than a scientific bonanza. The reports assembled in this chapter collectively examine available geophysical observations made before and after the earthquake and model the earthquake's principal postseismic effects. The chapter covers four broad categories of postseismic effect: (1) aftershocks; (2) postseismic fault movements; (3) postseismic surface deformation; and (4) changes in electrical conductivity and crustal fluids.
Study of the Seismic Cycle of large Earthquakes in central Peru: Lima Region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Norabuena, E. O.; Quiroz, W.; Dixon, T. H.
2009-12-01
Since historical times, the Peruvian subduction zone has been source of large and destructive earthquakes. The more damaging one occurred on May 30 1970 offshore Peru’s northern city of Chimbote with a death toll of 70,000 people and several hundred US million dollars in property damage. More recently, three contiguous plate interface segments in southern Peru completed their seismic cycle generating the 1996 Nazca (Mw 7.1), the 2001 Atico-Arequipa (Mw 8.4) and the 2007 Pisco (Mw 7.9) earthquakes. GPS measurements obtained between 1994-2001 by IGP-CIW an University of Miami-RSMAS on the central Andes of Peru and Bolivia were used to estimate their coseismic displacements and late stage of interseismic strain accumulation. However, we focus our interest in central Peru-Lima region, which with its about 9’000,000 inhabitants is located over a locked plate interface that has not broken with magnitude Mw 8 earthquakes since May 1940, September 1966 and October 1974. We use a network of 11 GPS monuments to estimate the interseismic velocity field, infer spatial variations of interplate coupling and its relation with the background seismicity of the region.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ruff, Larry J.
2001-04-01
The deep creep plate interface extends from the down-dip edge of the seismogenic zone down to the base of the overlying lithosphere in subduction zones. Seismogenic/deep creep zone interaction during the earthquake cycle produces spatial and temporal variations in strains within the surrounding elastic material. Strain observations in the Nankai subduction zone show distinct deformation styles in the co-seismic, post-seismic, and inter-seismic phases associated with the 1946 great earthquake. The most widely used kinematic model to match geodetic observations has been a 2-D Savage-type model where a plate interface is placed in an elastic half-space and co-seismic slip occurs in the upper seismogenic portion of the interface, while inter-seismic deformation is modeled by a locked seismogenic zone and a constant slip velocity across the deep creep interface. Here, I use the simplest possible 2-D mechanical model with just two blocks to study the stress interaction between the seismogenic and deep creep zones. The seismogenic zone behaves as a stick-slip interface where co-seismic slip or stress drop constrain the model. A linear constitutive law for the deep creep zone connects the shear stress (σ) to the slip velocity across the plate interface (s') with the material property of interface viscosity (ζ ) as: σ = ζ s'. The analytic solution for the steady-state two-block model produces simple formulas that connect some spatially-averaged geodetic observations to model quantities. Aside from the basic subduction zone geometry, the key observed parameter is τ, the characteristic time of the rapid post-seismic slip in the deep creep interface. Observations of τ range from about 5 years (Nankai and Alaska) to 15 years (Chile). The simple model uses these values for τ to produce estimates for ζ that range from 8.4 × 1013 Pa/m/s (in Nankai) to 6.5 × 1014 Pa/m/s (in Chile). Then, the model predicts that the shear stress acting on deep creep interface averaged over
Hidden Earthquake Potential in Plate Boundary Transition Zones
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Furlong, Kevin P.; Herman, Matthew; Govers, Rob
2017-04-01
Plate boundaries can exhibit spatially abrupt changes in their long-term tectonic deformation (and associated kinematics) at triple junctions and other sites of changes in plate boundary structure. How earthquake behavior responds to these abrupt tectonic changes is unclear. The situation may be additionally obscured by the effects of superimposed deformational signals - juxtaposed short-term (earthquake cycle) kinematics may combine to produce a net deformational signal that does not reflect intuition about the actual strain accumulation in the region. Two examples of this effect are in the vicinity of the Mendocino triple junction (MTJ) along the west coast of North America, and at the southern end of the Hikurangi subduction zone, New Zealand. In the region immediately north of the MTJ, GPS-based observed crustal displacements (relative to North America (NAm)) are intermediate between Pacific and Juan de Fuca (JdF) motions. With distance north, these displacements rotate to become more aligned with JdF - NAm displacements, i.e. to motions expected along a coupled subduction interface. The deviation of GPS motions from the coupled subduction interface signal near the MTJ has been previously interpreted to reflect clock-wise rotation of a coastal, crustal block and/or reduced coupling at the southern Cascadia margin. The geologic record of crustal deformation near the MTJ reflects the combined effects of northward crustal shortening (on geologic time scales) associated with the MTJ Crustal Conveyor (Furlong and Govers, 1999) overprinted onto the subduction earthquake cycle signal. With this interpretation, the Cascadia subduction margin appears to be well-coupled along its entire length, consistent with paleo-seismic records of large earthquake ruptures extending to its southern limit. At the Hikurangi to Alpine Fault transition in New Zealand, plate interactions switch from subduction to oblique translation as a consequence of changes in lithospheric structure of
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sun, Y.; Luo, G.
2017-12-01
Seismicity in a region is usually characterized by earthquake clusters and earthquake migration along its major fault zones. However, we do not fully understand why and how earthquake clusters and spatio-temporal migration of earthquakes occur. The northeastern Tibetan Plateau is a good example for us to investigate these problems. In this study, we construct and use a three-dimensional viscoelastoplastic finite-element model to simulate earthquake cycles and spatio-temporal migration of earthquakes along major fault zones in northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We calculate stress evolution and fault interactions, and explore effects of topographic loading and viscosity of middle-lower crust and upper mantle on model results. Model results show that earthquakes and fault interactions increase Coulomb stress on the neighboring faults or segments, accelerating the future earthquakes in this region. Thus, earthquakes occur sequentially in a short time, leading to regional earthquake clusters. Through long-term evolution, stresses on some seismogenic faults, which are far apart, may almost simultaneously reach the critical state of fault failure, probably also leading to regional earthquake clusters and earthquake migration. Based on our model synthetic seismic catalog and paleoseismic data, we analyze probability of earthquake migration between major faults in northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We find that following the 1920 M 8.5 Haiyuan earthquake and the 1927 M 8.0 Gulang earthquake, the next big event (M≥7) in northeastern Tibetan Plateau would be most likely to occur on the Haiyuan fault.
Earthquake effects at nuclear reactor facilities: San Fernando earthquake of February 9th, 1971
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Howard, G.; Ibanez, P.; Matthiesen, F.
1972-02-01
The effects of the San Fernando earthquake of February 9, 1971 on 26 reactor facilities located in California, Arizona, and Nevada are reported. The safety performance of the facilities during the earthquake is discussed. (JWR)
Earthquakes: Predicting the unpredictable?
Hough, Susan E.
2005-01-01
The earthquake prediction pendulum has swung from optimism in the 1970s to rather extreme pessimism in the 1990s. Earlier work revealed evidence of possible earthquake precursors: physical changes in the planet that signal that a large earthquake is on the way. Some respected earthquake scientists argued that earthquakes are likewise fundamentally unpredictable. The fate of the Parkfield prediction experiment appeared to support their arguments: A moderate earthquake had been predicted along a specified segment of the central San Andreas fault within five years of 1988, but had failed to materialize on schedule. At some point, however, the pendulum began to swing back. Reputable scientists began using the "P-word" in not only polite company, but also at meetings and even in print. If the optimism regarding earthquake prediction can be attributed to any single cause, it might be scientists' burgeoning understanding of the earthquake cycle.
Earthquake recurrence and risk assessment in circum-Pacific seismic gaps
Thatcher, W.
1989-01-01
THE development of the concept of seismic gaps, regions of low earthquake activity where large events are expected, has been one of the notable achievements of seismology and plate tectonics. Its application to long-term earthquake hazard assessment continues to be an active field of seismological research. Here I have surveyed well documented case histories of repeated rupture of the same segment of circum-Pacific plate boundary and characterized their general features. I find that variability in fault slip and spatial extent of great earthquakes rupturing the same plate boundary segment is typical rather than exceptional but sequences of major events fill identified seismic gaps with remarkable order. Earthquakes are concentrated late in the seismic cycle and occur with increasing size and magnitude. Furthermore, earthquake rup-ture starts near zones of concentrated moment release, suggesting that high-slip regions control the timing of recurrent events. The absence of major earthquakes early in the seismic cycle indicates a more complex behaviour for lower-slip regions, which may explain the observed cycle-to-cycle diversity of gap-filling sequences. ?? 1989 Nature Publishing Group.
Nowcasting Earthquakes and Tsunamis
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.
2017-12-01
The term "nowcasting" refers to the estimation of the current uncertain state of a dynamical system, whereas "forecasting" is a calculation of probabilities of future state(s). Nowcasting is a term that originated in economics and finance, referring to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or market indicators such as GDP at the current time by indirect means. We have applied this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of a system of faults, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EA000185/full). Advantages of our nowcasting method over forecasting models include: 1) Nowcasting is simply data analysis and does not involve a model having parameters that must be fit to data; 2) We use only earthquake catalog data which generally has known errors and characteristics; and 3) We use area-based analysis rather than fault-based analysis, meaning that the methods work equally well on land and in subduction zones. To use the nowcast method to estimate how far the fault system has progressed through the "cycle" of large recurring earthquakes, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. We select a "small" region in which the nowcast is to be made, and compute the statistics of a much larger region around the small region. The statistics of the large region are then applied to the small region. For an application, we can define a small region around major global cities, for example a "small" circle of radius 150 km and a depth of 100 km, as well as a "large" earthquake magnitude, for example M6.0. The region of influence of such earthquakes is roughly 150 km radius x 100 km depth, which is the reason these values were selected. We can then compute and rank the seismic risk of the world's major cities in terms of their relative seismic risk
Nakata, Ryoko; Hori, Takane; Hyodo, Mamoru; Ariyoshi, Keisuke
2016-05-10
We show possible scenarios for the occurrence of M ~ 7 interplate earthquakes prior to and following the M ~ 9 earthquake along the Japan Trench, such as the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. One such M ~ 7 earthquake is so-called the Miyagi-ken-Oki earthquake, for which we conducted numerical simulations of earthquake generation cycles by using realistic three-dimensional (3D) geometry of the subducting Pacific Plate. In a number of scenarios, the time interval between the M ~ 9 earthquake and the subsequent Miyagi-ken-Oki earthquake was equal to or shorter than the average recurrence interval during the later stage of the M ~ 9 earthquake cycle. The scenarios successfully reproduced important characteristics such as the recurrence of M ~ 7 earthquakes, coseismic slip distribution, afterslip distribution, the largest foreshock, and the largest aftershock of the 2011 earthquake. Thus, these results suggest that we should prepare for future M ~ 7 earthquakes in the Miyagi-ken-Oki segment even though this segment recently experienced large coseismic slip in 2011.
Nakata, Ryoko; Hori, Takane; Hyodo, Mamoru; Ariyoshi, Keisuke
2016-01-01
We show possible scenarios for the occurrence of M ~ 7 interplate earthquakes prior to and following the M ~ 9 earthquake along the Japan Trench, such as the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. One such M ~ 7 earthquake is so-called the Miyagi-ken-Oki earthquake, for which we conducted numerical simulations of earthquake generation cycles by using realistic three-dimensional (3D) geometry of the subducting Pacific Plate. In a number of scenarios, the time interval between the M ~ 9 earthquake and the subsequent Miyagi-ken-Oki earthquake was equal to or shorter than the average recurrence interval during the later stage of the M ~ 9 earthquake cycle. The scenarios successfully reproduced important characteristics such as the recurrence of M ~ 7 earthquakes, coseismic slip distribution, afterslip distribution, the largest foreshock, and the largest aftershock of the 2011 earthquake. Thus, these results suggest that we should prepare for future M ~ 7 earthquakes in the Miyagi-ken-Oki segment even though this segment recently experienced large coseismic slip in 2011. PMID:27161897
Understanding and responding to earthquake hazards
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Raymond, C. A.; Lundgren, P. R.; Madsen, S. N.; Rundle, J. B.
2002-01-01
Advances in understanding of the earthquake cycle and in assessing earthquake hazards is a topic of great importance. Dynamic earthquake hazard assessments resolved for a range of spatial scales and time scales will allow a more systematic approach to prioritizing the retrofitting of vulnerable structures, relocating populations at risk, protecting lifelines, preparing for disasters, and educating the public.
Effects of acoustic waves on stick-slip in granular media and implications for earthquakes
Johnson, P.A.; Savage, H.; Knuth, M.; Gomberg, J.; Marone, Chris
2008-01-01
It remains unknown how the small strains induced by seismic waves can trigger earthquakes at large distances, in some cases thousands of kilometres from the triggering earthquake, with failure often occurring long after the waves have passed. Earthquake nucleation is usually observed to take place at depths of 10-20 km, and so static overburden should be large enough to inhibit triggering by seismic-wave stress perturbations. To understand the physics of dynamic triggering better, as well as the influence of dynamic stressing on earthquake recurrence, we have conducted laboratory studies of stick-slip in granular media with and without applied acoustic vibration. Glass beads were used to simulate granular fault zone material, sheared under constant normal stress, and subject to transient or continuous perturbation by acoustic waves. Here we show that small-magnitude failure events, corresponding to triggered aftershocks, occur when applied sound-wave amplitudes exceed several microstrain. These events are frequently delayed or occur as part of a cascade of small events. Vibrations also cause large slip events to be disrupted in time relative to those without wave perturbation. The effects are observed for many large-event cycles after vibrations cease, indicating a strain memory in the granular material. Dynamic stressing of tectonic faults may play a similar role in determining the complexity of earthquake recurrence. ??2007 Nature Publishing Group.
The Rotational and Gravitational Effect of Earthquakes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Gross, Richard
2000-01-01
The static displacement field generated by an earthquake has the effect of rearranging the Earth's mass distribution and will consequently cause the Earth's rotation and gravitational field to change. Although the coseismic effect of earthquakes on the Earth's rotation and gravitational field have been modeled in the past, no unambiguous observations of this effect have yet been made. However, the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite, which is scheduled to be launched in 2001, will measure time variations of the Earth's gravitational field to high degree and order with unprecedented accuracy. In this presentation, the modeled coseismic effect of earthquakes upon the Earth's gravitational field to degree and order 100 will be computed and compared to the expected accuracy of the GRACE measurements. In addition, the modeled second degree changes, corresponding to changes in the Earth's rotation, will be compared to length-of-day and polar motion excitation observations.
Are Earthquake Clusters/Supercycles Real or Random?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Salditch, L.; Brooks, E. M.; Stein, S.; Spencer, B. D.
2016-12-01
Long records of earthquakes at plate boundaries such as the San Andreas or Cascadia often show that large earthquakes occur in temporal clusters, also termed supercycles, separated by less active intervals. These are intriguing because the boundary is presumably being loaded by steady plate motion. If so, earthquakes resulting from seismic cycles - in which their probability is small shortly after the past one, and then increases with time - should occur quasi-periodically rather than be more frequent in some intervals than others. We are exploring this issue with two approaches. One is to assess whether the clusters result purely by chance from a time-independent process that has no "memory." Thus a future earthquake is equally likely immediately after the past one and much later, so earthquakes can cluster in time. We analyze the agreement between such a model and inter-event times for Parkfield, Pallet Creek, and other records. A useful tool is transformation by the inverse cumulative distribution function, so the inter-event times have a uniform distribution when the memorylessness property holds. The second is via a time-variable model in which earthquake probability increases with time between earthquakes and decreases after an earthquake. The probability of an event increases with time until one happens, after which it decreases, but not to zero. Hence after a long period of quiescence, the probability of an earthquake can remain higher than the long-term average for several cycles. Thus the probability of another earthquake is path dependent, i.e. depends on the prior earthquake history over multiple cycles. Time histories resulting from simulations give clusters with properties similar to those observed. The sequences of earthquakes result from both the model parameters and chance, so two runs with the same parameters look different. The model parameters control the average time between events and the variation of the actual times around this average, so
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Taylor, F. W.; Lavier, L. L.; Bevis, M. G.; Thirumalai, K.; Frohlich, C. A.
2012-12-01
Over million-year time scales, what is the relationship between the meter-scale vertical displacements that occur in individual large subduction-zone earthquakes, and the observed topography and geology of island arcs? Because the geographic distribution of vertical displacements associated with the earthquake cycle sometimes mimics topography, it is tempting to assume that vertical deformation simply accrues as the coseismic part of the cycle that is preserved from one event to another. However, our research in the Central New Hebrides and Western Solomon arcs demonstrates that truly permanent tectonic deformation is a step farther removed from the earthquake cycle than we originally assumed. By precisely dating of coral reef terraces we are able to evaluate vertical deformation over time scales of 10,000 to 100,000 years. This analysis indicates that these arcs undergo episodes of hundreds of meters of subsidence and uplift over time scales of tens of thousands of years. Thus what remains in the geologic record is potentially providing invaluable information about more fundamental processes than the elastic earthquake cycle. These longer-term episodes of vertical motion may act in many arcs throughout the world, but evidence of them may be poorly preserved outside of tropical regions where corals along island coastlines provide a record of their occurrence.In our presentation we will describe the tectonic behavior observed in the Central New Hebrides and Western Solomons. We will speculate about some possible mechanisms that explain how the subduction process generates longer-term episodes of subsidence and uplift, and make suggestions about future observations that could better constrain the nature of these processes.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Newman, W. I.; Turcotte, D. L.
2002-12-01
We have studied a hybrid model combining the forest-fire model with the site-percolation model in order to better understand the earthquake cycle. We consider a square array of sites. At each time step, a "tree" is dropped on a randomly chosen site and is planted if the site is unoccupied. When a cluster of "trees" spans the site (a percolating cluster), all the trees in the cluster are removed ("burned") in a "fire." The removal of the cluster is analogous to a characteristic earthquake and planting "trees" is analogous to increasing the regional stress. The clusters are analogous to the metastable regions of a fault over which an earthquake rupture can propagate once triggered. We find that the frequency-area statistics of the metastable regions are power-law with a negative exponent of two (as in the forest-fire model). This is analogous to the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of seismicity. This "self-organized critical behavior" can be explained in terms of an inverse cascade of clusters. Individual trees move from small to larger clusters until they are destroyed. This inverse cascade of clusters is self-similar and the power-law distribution of cluster sizes has been shown to have an exponent of two. We have quantified the forecasting of the spanning fires using error diagrams. The assumption that "fires" (earthquakes) are quasi-periodic has moderate predictability. The density of trees gives an improved degree of predictability, while the size of the largest cluster of trees provides a substantial improvement in forecasting a "fire."
Moon Connection with MEGA and Giant Earthquakes in Subduction Zones during One Solar Cycle
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hagen, M. T.; Azevedo, A. T.
2016-12-01
We investigated in this paper the possible influences of the moon on earthquakes during one Solar cycle. The Earth - Moon gravitational force produces a variation in the perigee force that may trigger seismological events. The oscillation force creates a wave that is generated by the moon rotation around the earth, which takes a month. The wave complete a cycle after 13- 14 months in average and the period is roughly 5400 hours as calculated. The major moon phases which are New and Full Moon is when the perigee force is stronger. The Solar Wind charges the Moon during the New phases. The plasmasphere charges the satellite during the Full Moon. Both create the Spring Tides what affects mostly the subduction zones connected with the Mega and Giant events in Pacific areas. Moon - Earth connections are resilient in locations with convergent tectonic plates. Inserted:
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Govers, R.; Furlong, K. P.; van de Wiel, L.; Herman, M. W.; Broerse, T.
2018-03-01
Recent megathrust events in Tohoku (Japan), Maule (Chile), and Sumatra (Indonesia) were well recorded. Much has been learned about the dominant physical processes in megathrust zones: (partial) locking of the plate interface, detailed coseismic slip, relocking, afterslip, viscoelastic mantle relaxation, and interseismic loading. These and older observations show complex spatial and temporal patterns in crustal deformation and displacement, and significant differences among different margins. A key question is whether these differences reflect variations in the underlying processes, like differences in locking, or the margin geometry, or whether they are a consequence of the stage in the earthquake cycle of the margin. Quantitative models can connect these plate boundary processes to surficial and far-field observations. We use relatively simple, cyclic geodynamic models to isolate the first-order geodetic signature of the megathrust cycle. Coseismic and subsequent slip on the subduction interface is dynamically (and consistently) driven. A review of global preseismic, coseismic, and postseismic geodetic observations, and of their fit to the model predictions, indicates that similar physical processes are active at different margins. Most of the observed variability between the individual margins appears to be controlled by their different stages in the earthquake cycle. The modeling results also provide a possible explanation for observations of tensile faulting aftershocks and tensile cracking of the overriding plate, which are puzzling in the context of convergence/compression. From the inversion of our synthetic GNSS velocities we find that geodetic observations may incorrectly suggest weak locking of some margins, for example, the west Aleutian margin.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Walter, Edward J.
1977-01-01
Presents an analysis of the causes of earthquakes. Topics discussed include (1) geological and seismological factors that determine the effect of a particular earthquake on a given structure; (2) description of some large earthquakes such as the San Francisco quake; and (3) prediction of earthquakes. (HM)
Crustal deformation, the earthquake cycle, and models of viscoelastic flow in the asthenosphere
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cohen, S. C.; Kramer, M. J.
1983-01-01
The crustal deformation patterns associated with the earthquake cycle can depend strongly on the rheological properties of subcrustal material. Substantial deviations from the simple patterns for a uniformly elastic earth are expected when viscoelastic flow of subcrustal material is considered. The detailed description of the deformation pattern and in particular the surface displacements, displacement rates, strains, and strain rates depend on the structure and geometry of the material near the seismogenic zone. The origin of some of these differences are resolved by analyzing several different linear viscoelastic models with a common finite element computational technique. The models involve strike-slip faulting and include a thin channel asthenosphere model, a model with a varying thickness lithosphere, and a model with a viscoelastic inclusion below the brittle slip plane. The calculations reveal that the surface deformation pattern is most sensitive to the rheology of the material that lies below the slip plane in a volume whose extent is a few times the fault depth. If this material is viscoelastic, the surface deformation pattern resembles that of an elastic layer lying over a viscoelastic half-space. When the thickness or breath of the viscoelastic material is less than a few times the fault depth, then the surface deformation pattern is altered and geodetic measurements are potentially useful for studying the details of subsurface geometry and structure. Distinguishing among the various models is best accomplished by making geodetic measurements not only near the fault but out to distances equal to several times the fault depth. This is where the model differences are greatest; these differences will be most readily detected shortly after an earthquake when viscoelastic effects are most pronounced.
Ionospheric earthquake effects detection based on Total Electron Content (TEC) GPS Correlation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sunardi, Bambang; Muslim, Buldan; Eka Sakya, Andi; Rohadi, Supriyanto; Sulastri; Murjaya, Jaya
2018-03-01
Advances in science and technology showed that ground-based GPS receiver was able to detect ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) disturbances caused by various natural phenomena such as earthquakes. One study of Tohoku (Japan) earthquake, March 11, 2011, magnitude M 9.0 showed TEC fluctuations observed from GPS observation network spread around the disaster area. This paper discussed the ionospheric earthquake effects detection using TEC GPS data. The case studies taken were Kebumen earthquake, January 25, 2014, magnitude M 6.2, Sumba earthquake, February 12, 2016, M 6.2 and Halmahera earthquake, February 17, 2016, M 6.1. TEC-GIM (Global Ionosphere Map) correlation methods for 31 days were used to monitor TEC anomaly in ionosphere. To ensure the geomagnetic disturbances due to solar activity, we also compare with Dst index in the same time window. The results showed anomalous ratio of correlation coefficient deviation to its standard deviation upon occurrences of Kebumen and Sumba earthquake, but not detected a similar anomaly for the Halmahera earthquake. It was needed a continous monitoring of TEC GPS data to detect the earthquake effects in ionosphere. This study giving hope in strengthening the earthquake effect early warning system using TEC GPS data. The method development of continuous TEC GPS observation derived from GPS observation network that already exists in Indonesia is needed to support earthquake effects early warning systems.
The Alaska earthquake, March 27, 1964: effects on communities
Hansen, Wallace R.; Kachadoorian, Reuben; Coulter, Henry W.; Migliaccio, Ralph R.; Waller, Roger M.; Stanley, Kirk W.; Lemke, Richard W.; Plafker, George; Eckel, Edwin B.; Mayo, Lawrence R.
1969-01-01
This is the second in a series of six reports that the U.S. Geological Survey published on the results of a comprehensive geologic study that began, as a reconnaissance survey, within 24 hours after the March 27, 1964, Magnitude 9.2 Great Alaska Earthquake and extended, as detailed investigations, through several field seasons. The 1964 Great Alaska earthquake was the largest earthquake in the U.S. since 1700. Professional Paper 542, in 7 parts, describes the effects of the earthquake on Alaskan communities.
Celsi, R.; Wolfinbarger, M.; Wald, D.
2005-01-01
The purpose of this research is to explore earthquake risk perceptions in California. Specifically, we examine the risk beliefs, feelings, and experiences of lay, professional, and expert individuals to explore how risk is perceived and how risk perceptions are formed relative to earthquakes. Our results indicate that individuals tend to perceptually underestimate the degree that earthquake (EQ) events may affect them. This occurs in large part because individuals' personal felt experience of EQ events are generally overestimated relative to experienced magnitudes. An important finding is that individuals engage in a process of "cognitive anchoring" of their felt EQ experience towards the reported earthquake magnitude size. The anchoring effect is moderated by the degree that individuals comprehend EQ magnitude measurement and EQ attenuation. Overall, the results of this research provide us with a deeper understanding of EQ risk perceptions, especially as they relate to individuals' understanding of EQ measurement and attenuation concepts. ?? 2005, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.
The Alaska earthquake, March 27, 1964: regional effects
McCulloch, David S.; Tuthill, Samuel J.; Laird, Wilson M.; Case, J.E.; Barnes, D.F.; Plafker, George; Robbins, S.L.; Kachadoorian, Reuben; Ferrians, Oscar J.; Foster, Helen L.; Karlstrom, Thor N.V.; Kirkby, M.J.; Kirkby, Anne V.; Stanley, Kirk W.
1966-01-01
This is the third in a series of six reports that the U.S. Geological Survey published on the results of a comprehensive geologic study that began, as a reconnaissance survey, within 24 hours after the March 27, 1964, Magnitude 9.2 Great Alaska Earthquake and extended, as detailed investigations, through several field seasons. The 1964 Great Alaska earthquake was the largest earthquake in the U.S. since 1700. Professional Paper 543, in 10 parts, describes the regional geologic effects.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Moernaut, J.; Van Daele, M.; Fontijn, K.; Heirman, K.; Kempf, P.; Pino, M.; Valdebenito, G.; Urrutia, R.; Strasser, M.; De Batist, M.
2018-01-01
Historical and paleoseismic records in south-central Chile indicate that giant earthquakes on the subduction megathrust - such as in AD1960 (Mw 9.5) - reoccur on average every ∼300 yr. Based on geodetic calculations of the interseismic moment accumulation since AD1960, it was postulated that the area already has the potential for a Mw 8 earthquake. However, to estimate the probability of such a great earthquake to take place in the short term, one needs to frame this hypothesis within the long-term recurrence pattern of megathrust earthquakes in south-central Chile. Here we present two long lacustrine records, comprising up to 35 earthquake-triggered turbidites over the last 4800 yr. Calibration of turbidite extent with historical earthquake intensity reveals a different macroseismic intensity threshold (≥VII1/2 vs. ≥VI1/2) for the generation of turbidites at the coring sites. The strongest earthquakes (≥VII1/2) have longer recurrence intervals (292 ±93 yrs) than earthquakes with intensity of ≥VI1/2 (139 ± 69yr). Moreover, distribution fitting and the coefficient of variation (CoV) of inter-event times indicate that the stronger earthquakes recur in a more periodic way (CoV: 0.32 vs. 0.5). Regional correlation of our multi-threshold shaking records with coastal paleoseismic data of complementary nature (tsunami, coseismic subsidence) suggests that the intensity ≥VII1/2 events repeatedly ruptured the same part of the megathrust over a distance of at least ∼300 km and can be assigned to Mw ≥ 8.6. We hypothesize that a zone of high plate locking - identified by geodetic studies and large slip in AD 1960 - acts as a dominant regional asperity, on which elastic strain builds up over several centuries and mostly gets released in quasi-periodic great and giant earthquakes. Our paleo-records indicate that Poissonian recurrence models are inadequate to describe large megathrust earthquake recurrence in south-central Chile. Moreover, they show an enhanced
Effect of water content on stability of landslides triggered by earthquakes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Beyabanaki, S.; Bagtzoglou, A. C.; Anagnostou, E. N.
2013-12-01
Earthquake- triggered landslides are one of the most important natural hazards that often result in serious structural damage and loss of life. They are widely studied by several researchers. However, less attention has been focused on soil water content. Although the effect of water content has been widely studied for rainfall- triggered landslides [1], much less attention has been given to it for stability analysis of earthquake- triggered landslides. We developed a combined hydrology and stability model to investigate effect of soil water content on earthquake-triggered landslides. For this purpose, Bishop's method is used to do the slope stability analysis and Richard's equation is employed to model infiltration. Bishop's method is one the most widely methods used for analyzing stability of slopes [2]. Earthquake acceleration coefficient (EAC) is also considered in the model to analyze the effect of earthquake on slope stability. Also, this model is able to automatically determine geometry of the potential landslide. In this study, slopes with different initial water contents are simulated. First, the simulation is performed in the case of earthquake only with different EACs and water contents. As shown in Fig. 1, initial water content has a significant effect on factor of safety (FS). Greater initial water contents lead to less FS. This impact is more significant when EAC is small. Also, when initial water content is high, landslides can happen even with small earthquake accelerations. Moreover, in this study, effect of water content on geometry of landslides is investigated. For this purpose, different cases of landslides triggered by earthquakes only and both rainfall and earthquake for different initial water contents are simulated. The results show that water content has more significant effect on geometry of landslides triggered by rainfall than those triggered by an earthquake. Finally, effect of water content on landslides triggered by earthquakes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yamasaki, T.; Wright, T. J.; Houseman, G. A.
2013-12-01
After large earthquakes, rapid postseismic transient motions are commonly observed. Later in the loading cycle, strain is typically focused in narrow regions around the fault. In simple two-layer models of the loading cycle for strike-slip faults, rapid post-seismic transients require low viscosities beneath the elastic layer, but localized strain later in the cycle implies high viscosities in the crust. To explain this apparent paradox, complex transient rheologies have been invoked. Here we test an alternative hypothesis in which spatial variations in material properties of the crust can explain the geodetic observations. We use a 3D viscoelastic finite element code to examine two simple models of periodic fault slip: a stratified model in which crustal viscosity decreases exponentially with depth below an upper elastic layer, and a block model in which a low viscosity domain centered beneath the fault is embedded in a higher viscosity background representing normal crust. We test these models using GPS data acquired before and after the 1999 Izmit/Duzce earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault Zone (Turkey). The model with depth-dependent viscosity can show both high postseismic velocities, and preseismic localization of the deformation, if the viscosity contrast from top to bottom of layer exceeds a factor of about 104. However, with no lateral variations in viscosity, this model cannot explain the proximity to the fault of maximum postseismic velocities. In contrast, the model which includes a localized weak zone beneath the faulted elastic lid can explain all the observations, if the weak zone extends down to mid-crustal levels and outward to 10 or 20 km from the fault. The non-dimensional ratio of relaxation time to earthquake repeat time, τ/Δt, is the critical parameter in controlling the observed deformation. In the weak-zone model, τ/Δt should be in the range 0.005 to 0.01 in the weak domain, and larger than ~ 1.0 elsewhere. This implies a viscosity
Harris, R.A.; Simpson, R.W.
1996-01-01
The great 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake is the largest earthquake to have hit southern California during the historic period. We investigated if seismicity patterns following 1857 could be due to static stress changes generated by the 1857 earthquake. When post-1857 earthquakes with unknown focal mechanisms were assigned strike-slip mechanisms with strike and rake determined by the nearest active fault, 13 of the 13 southern California M???5.5 earthquakes between 1857 and 1907 were encouraged by the 1857 rupture. When post-1857 earthquakes in the Transverse Ranges with unknown focal mechanisms were assigned reverse mechanisms and all other events were assumed strike-slip, 11 of the 13 earthquakes were encouraged by the 1857 earthquake. These results show significant correlations between static stress changes and seismicity patterns. The correlation disappears around 1907, suggesting that tectonic loading began to overwhelm the effect of the 1857 earthquake early in the 20th century.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sobolev, Stephan; Muldashev, Iskander
2016-04-01
According to conventional view, postseismic relaxation process after a great megathrust earthquake is dominated by fault-controlled afterslip during first few months to year, and later by visco-elastic relaxation in mantle wedge. We test this idea by cross-scale thermomechanical models of seismic cycle that employs elasticity, mineral-physics constrained non-linear transient viscous rheology and rate-and-state friction plasticity. As initial conditions for the models we use thermomechanical models of subduction zones at geological time-scale including a narrow subduction channel with low static friction for two settings, similar to the Southern Chile in the region of the great Chile Earthquake of 1960 and Japan in the region of Tohoku Earthquake of 2011. We next introduce in the same models classic rate-and state friction law in subduction channels, leading to stick-slip instability. The models start to generate spontaneous earthquake sequences and model parameters are set to closely replicate co-seismic deformations of Chile and Japan earthquakes. In order to follow in details deformation process during the entire seismic cycle and multiple seismic cycles we use adaptive time-step algorithm changing integration step from 40 sec during the earthquake to minute-5 year during postseismic and interseismic processes. We show that for the case of the Chile earthquake visco-elastic relaxation in the mantle wedge becomes dominant relaxation process already since 1 hour after the earthquake, while for the smaller Tohoku earthquake this happens some days after the earthquake. We also show that our model for Tohoku earthquake is consistent with the geodetic observations for the day-to-4year time range. We will demonstrate and discuss modeled deformation patterns during seismic cycles and identify the regions where the effects of afterslip and visco-elastic relaxation can be best distinguished.
The effect of material heterogeneities in long term multiscale seismic cycle simulations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kyriakopoulos, C.; Richards-Dinger, K. B.; Dieterich, J. H.
2016-12-01
A fundamental part of the simulation of the earthquake cycles in large-scale multicycle earthquake simulators is the pre-computation of elastostatic Greens functions collected into the stiffness matrix (K). The stiffness matrices are typically based on the elastostatic solutions of Okada (1992), Gimbutas et al. (2012), or similar. While these analytic solutions are computationally very fast, they are limited to modeling a homogeneous isotropic half-space. It is thus unknown how such simulations may be affected by material heterogeneity characterizing the earth medium. We are currently working on the estimation of the effects of heterogeneous material properties in the earthquake simulator RSQSim (Richards-Dinger and Dieterich, 2012). In order to do that we are calculating elastostatic solutions in a heterogeneous medium using the Finite Element (FE) method instead of any of the analytical solutions. The investigated region is a 400 x 400 km area centered on the Anza zone in southern California. The fault system geometry is based on that of the UCERF3 deformation models in the area of interest, which we then implement in a finite element mesh using Trelis 15. The heterogeneous elastic structure is based on available tomographic data (seismic wavespeeds and density) for the region (SCEC CVM and Allam et al., 2014). For computation of the Greens functions we are using the open source FE code Defmod (https://bitbucket.org/stali/defmod/wiki/Home) to calculate the elastostatic solutions due to unit slip on each patch. Earthquake slip on the fault plane is implemented through linear constraint equations (Ali et al., 2014, Kyriakopoulos et al., 2013, Aagard et al, 2015) and more specifically with the use of Lagrange multipliers adjunction. The elementary responses are collected into the "heterogeneous" stiffness matrix Khet and used in RSQSim instead of the ones generated with Okada. Finally, we compare the RSQSim results based on the "heterogeneous" Khet with results from
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Reilinger, Robert
2005-01-01
Our principal activities during the initial phase of this project include: 1) Continued monitoring of postseismic deformation for the 1999 Izmit and Duzce, Turkey earthquakes from repeated GPS survey measurements and expansion of the Marmara Continuous GPS Network (MAGNET), 2) Establishing three North Anatolian fault crossing profiles (10 sitedprofile) at locations that experienced major surface-fault earthquakes at different times in the past to examine strain accumulation as a function of time in the earthquake cycle (2004), 3) Repeat observations of selected sites in the fault-crossing profiles (2005), 4) Repeat surveys of the Marmara GPS network to continue to monitor postseismic deformation, 5) Refining block models for the Marmara Sea seismic gap area to better understand earthquake hazards in the Greater Istanbul area, 6) Continuing development of models for afterslip and distributed viscoelastic deformation for the earthquake cycle. We are keeping close contact with MIT colleagues (Brad Hager, and Eric Hetland) who are developing models for S. California and for the earthquake cycle in general (Hetland, 2006). In addition, our Turkish partners at the Marmara Research Center have undertaken repeat, micro-gravity measurements at the MAGNET sites and have provided us estimates of gravity change during the period 2003 - 2005.
Earthquake recurrence models fail when earthquakes fail to reset the stress field
Tormann, Thessa; Wiemer, Stefan; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.
2012-01-01
Parkfield's regularly occurring M6 mainshocks, about every 25 years, have over two decades stoked seismologists' hopes to successfully predict an earthquake of significant size. However, with the longest known inter-event time of 38 years, the latest M6 in the series (28 Sep 2004) did not conform to any of the applied forecast models, questioning once more the predictability of earthquakes in general. Our study investigates the spatial pattern of b-values along the Parkfield segment through the seismic cycle and documents a stably stressed structure. The forecasted rate of M6 earthquakes based on Parkfield's microseismicity b-values corresponds well to observed rates. We interpret the observed b-value stability in terms of the evolution of the stress field in that area: the M6 Parkfield earthquakes do not fully unload the stress on the fault, explaining why time recurrent models fail. We present the 1989 M6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake as counter example, which did release a significant portion of the stress along its fault segment and yields a substantial change in b-values.
Modeling, Forecasting and Mitigating Extreme Earthquakes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Le Mouel, J.; Soloviev, A.
2012-12-01
Recent earthquake disasters highlighted the importance of multi- and trans-disciplinary studies of earthquake risk. A major component of earthquake disaster risk analysis is hazards research, which should cover not only a traditional assessment of ground shaking, but also studies of geodetic, paleoseismic, geomagnetic, hydrological, deep drilling and other geophysical and geological observations together with comprehensive modeling of earthquakes and forecasting extreme events. Extreme earthquakes (large magnitude and rare events) are manifestations of complex behavior of the lithosphere structured as a hierarchical system of blocks of different sizes. Understanding of physics and dynamics of the extreme events comes from observations, measurements and modeling. A quantitative approach to simulate earthquakes in models of fault dynamics will be presented. The models reproduce basic features of the observed seismicity (e.g., the frequency-magnitude relationship, clustering of earthquakes, occurrence of extreme seismic events). They provide a link between geodynamic processes and seismicity, allow studying extreme events, influence of fault network properties on seismic patterns and seismic cycles, and assist, in a broader sense, in earthquake forecast modeling. Some aspects of predictability of large earthquakes (how well can large earthquakes be predicted today?) will be also discussed along with possibilities in mitigation of earthquake disasters (e.g., on 'inverse' forensic investigations of earthquake disasters).
Memory effect in M ≥ 7 earthquakes of Taiwan
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Jeen-Hwa
2014-07-01
The M ≥ 7 earthquakes that occurred in the Taiwan region during 1906-2006 are taken to study the possibility of memory effect existing in the sequence of those large earthquakes. Those events are all mainshocks. The fluctuation analysis technique is applied to analyze two sequences in terms of earthquake magnitude and inter-event time represented in the natural time domain. For both magnitude and inter-event time, the calculations are made for three data sets, i.e., the original order data, the reverse-order data, and that of the mean values. Calculated results show that the exponents of scaling law of fluctuation versus window length are less than 0.5 for the sequences of both magnitude and inter-event time data. In addition, the phase portraits of two sequent magnitudes and two sequent inter-event times are also applied to explore if large (or small) earthquakes are followed by large (or small) events. Results lead to a negative answer. Together with all types of information in study, we make a conclusion that the earthquake sequence in study is short-term corrected and thus the short-term memory effect would be operative.
The Effect of Sonic Booms on Earthquake Warning Systems
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wurman, Gilead; Haering, Edward A, Jr.; Price, Michael J.
2011-01-01
Several aerospace companies are designing quiet supersonic business jets for service over the United States. These aircraft have the potential to increase the occurrence of mild sonic booms across the country. This leads to interest among earthquake warning (EQW) developers and the general seismological community in characterizing the effect of sonic booms on seismic sensors in the field, their potential impact on EQW systems, and means of discriminating their signatures from those of earthquakes. The SonicBREWS project (Sonic Boom Resistant Earthquake Warning Systems) is a collaborative effort between Seismic Warning Systems, Inc. (SWS) and NASA Dryden Flight Research Center. This project aims to evaluate the effects of sonic booms on EQW sensors. The study consists of exposing high-sample-rate (1000 sps) triaxial accelerometers to sonic booms with overpressures ranging from 10 to 600 Pa in the free field and the built environment. The accelerometers record the coupling of the sonic boom to the ground and surrounding structures, while microphones record the acoustic wave above ground near the sensor. Sonic booms are broadband signals with more high-frequency content than earthquakes. Even a 1000 sps accelerometer will produce a significantly aliased record. Thus the observed peak ground velocity is strongly dependent on the sampling rate, and increases as the sampling rate is reduced. At 1000 sps we observe ground velocities that exceed those of P-waves from ML 3 earthquakes at local distances, suggesting that sonic booms are not negligible for EQW applications. We present the results of several experiments conducted under SonicBREWS showing the effects of typical-case low amplitude sonic booms and worst-case high amplitude booms. We show the effects of various sensor placements and sensor array geometries. Finally, we suggest possible avenues for discriminating sonic booms from earthquakes for the purposes of EQW.
Economic Effects of 1978 Tabas Earthquake (Iran).
Zandian, Elham; Rimaz, Shahnaz; Holakouie Naieni, Kourosh; Nedjat, Saharnaz; Naderimagham, Shohreh; Larijani, Bagher; Farzadfar, Farshad
2016-06-01
Natural disasters are one of the most important adverse health events. The earthquake that happened in the city of Tabas in 1978 was ranked third in terms of number of deaths caused by natural disasters over the past 100 years in Iran. This study was aimed to evaluate the economic and human capital consequences of earthquake in Tabas district. We used a two percent random sample of Iran Census Dataset from 2006 to run a difference-in-difference study. The difference-in-difference methodology was used to evaluate (1) the mean changes in variables including years of schooling and wealth; (2) the odds changes in primary school completion and literacy of people born (5 or 10 years) post-event versus (5 or 10 years) pre-event in Tabas compared with the same values for those born in the same period of time in the control districts. Differential increase in years of schooling for being born 10 years after the earthquake versus in 10 years before earthquake in Tabas was one-third of a school year less than in the control districts. There were 89.5% and 65.4% decrease in odds that an individual is literate, and 0.26 and 0.104 average decrease in the SES index for those born in Tabas in periods of 5 and 10 years, respectively, compared with control districts. Tabas earthquake had negative long-term effects on human capital and wealth. This study can help official authorities to promote educational and economic plans and to implement comprehensive reforms in earthquake-stricken areas.
Perception of earthquake risk in Taiwan: effects of gender and past earthquake experience.
Kung, Yi-Wen; Chen, Sue-Huei
2012-09-01
This study explored how individuals in Taiwan perceive the risk of earthquake and the relationship of past earthquake experience and gender to risk perception. Participants (n= 1,405), including earthquake survivors and those in the general population without prior direct earthquake exposure, were selected and interviewed through a computer-assisted telephone interviewing procedure using a random sampling and stratification method covering all 24 regions of Taiwan. A factor analysis of the interview data yielded a two-factor structure of risk perception in regard to earthquake. The first factor, "personal impact," encompassed perception of threat and fear related to earthquakes. The second factor, "controllability," encompassed a sense of efficacy of self-protection in regard to earthquakes. The findings indicated prior earthquake survivors and females reported higher scores on the personal impact factor than males and those with no prior direct earthquake experience, although there were no group differences on the controllability factor. The findings support that risk perception has multiple components, and suggest that past experience (survivor status) and gender (female) affect the perception of risk. Exploration of potential contributions of other demographic factors such as age, education, and marital status to personal impact, especially for females and survivors, is discussed. Future research on and intervention program with regard to risk perception are suggested accordingly. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.
Limiting the effects of earthquakes on gravitational-wave interferometers
Coughlin, Michael; Earle, Paul; Harms, Jan; Biscans, Sebastien; Buchanan, Christopher; Coughlin, Eric; Donovan, Fred; Fee, Jeremy; Gabbard, Hunter; Guy, Michelle; Mukund, Nikhil; Perry, Matthew
2017-01-01
Ground-based gravitational wave interferometers such as the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) are susceptible to ground shaking from high-magnitude teleseismic events, which can interrupt their operation in science mode and significantly reduce their duty cycle. It can take several hours for a detector to stabilize enough to return to its nominal state for scientific observations. The down time can be reduced if advance warning of impending shaking is received and the impact is suppressed in the isolation system with the goal of maintaining stable operation even at the expense of increased instrumental noise. Here, we describe an early warning system for modern gravitational-wave observatories. The system relies on near real-time earthquake alerts provided by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Preliminary low latency hypocenter and magnitude information is generally available in 5 to 20 min of a significant earthquake depending on its magnitude and location. The alerts are used to estimate arrival times and ground velocities at the gravitational-wave detectors. In general, 90% of the predictions for ground-motion amplitude are within a factor of 5 of measured values. The error in both arrival time and ground-motion prediction introduced by using preliminary, rather than final, hypocenter and magnitude information is minimal. By using a machine learning algorithm, we develop a prediction model that calculates the probability that a given earthquake will prevent a detector from taking data. Our initial results indicate that by using detector control configuration changes, we could prevent interruption of operation from 40 to 100 earthquake events in a 6-month time-period.
Limiting the effects of earthquakes on gravitational-wave interferometers
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Coughlin, Michael; Earle, Paul; Harms, Jan; Biscans, Sebastien; Buchanan, Christopher; Coughlin, Eric; Donovan, Fred; Fee, Jeremy; Gabbard, Hunter; Guy, Michelle; Mukund, Nikhil; Perry, Matthew
2017-02-01
Ground-based gravitational wave interferometers such as the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) are susceptible to ground shaking from high-magnitude teleseismic events, which can interrupt their operation in science mode and significantly reduce their duty cycle. It can take several hours for a detector to stabilize enough to return to its nominal state for scientific observations. The down time can be reduced if advance warning of impending shaking is received and the impact is suppressed in the isolation system with the goal of maintaining stable operation even at the expense of increased instrumental noise. Here, we describe an early warning system for modern gravitational-wave observatories. The system relies on near real-time earthquake alerts provided by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Preliminary low latency hypocenter and magnitude information is generally available in 5 to 20 min of a significant earthquake depending on its magnitude and location. The alerts are used to estimate arrival times and ground velocities at the gravitational-wave detectors. In general, 90% of the predictions for ground-motion amplitude are within a factor of 5 of measured values. The error in both arrival time and ground-motion prediction introduced by using preliminary, rather than final, hypocenter and magnitude information is minimal. By using a machine learning algorithm, we develop a prediction model that calculates the probability that a given earthquake will prevent a detector from taking data. Our initial results indicate that by using detector control configuration changes, we could prevent interruption of operation from 40 to 100 earthquake events in a 6-month time-period.
Ripoll Gallardo, Alba; Alesina, Marta; Pacelli, Barbara; Serrone, Dario; Iacutone, Giovanni; Faggiano, Fabrizio; Della Corte, Francesco; Allara, Elias
2016-01-01
to compare the methodological characteristics of the studies investigating the middle- and long-term health effects of the L'Aquila earthquake with the features of studies conducted after other earthquakes occurred in highincome Countries. a systematic comparison between the studies which evaluated the health effects of the L'Aquila earthquake (Central Italy, 6th April 2009) and those conducted after other earthquakes occurred in comparable settings. Medline, Scopus, and 6 sources of grey literature were systematically searched. Inclusion criteria comprised measurement of health outcomes at least one month after the earthquake, investigation of earthquakes occurred in high-income Countries, and presence of at least one temporal or geographical control group. out of 2,976 titles, 13 studies regarding the L'Aquila earthquake and 51 studies concerning other earthquakes were included. The L'Aquila and the Kobe/Hanshin- Awaji (Japan, 17th January 1995) earthquakes were the most investigated. Studies on the L'Aquila earthquake had a median sample size of 1,240 subjects, a median duration of 24 months, and used most frequently a cross sectional design (7/13). Studies on other earthquakes had a median sample size of 320 subjects, a median duration of 15 months, and used most frequently a time series design (19/51). the L'Aquila studies often focussed on mental health, while the earthquake effects on mortality, cardiovascular outcomes, and health systems were less frequently evaluated. A more intensive use of routine data could benefit future epidemiological surveillance in the aftermath of earthquakes.
Three dimensional modelling of earthquake rupture cycles on frictional faults
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Simpson, Guy; May, Dave
2017-04-01
We are developing an efficient MPI-parallel numerical method to simulate earthquake sequences on preexisting faults embedding within a three dimensional viscoelastic half-space. We solve the velocity form of the elasto(visco)dynamic equations using a continuous Galerkin Finite Element Method on an unstructured pentahedral mesh, which thus permits local spatial refinement in the vicinity of the fault. Friction sliding is coupled to the viscoelastic solid via rate- and state-dependent friction laws using the split-node technique. Our coupled formulation employs a picard-type non-linear solver with a fully implicit, first order accurate time integrator that utilises an adaptive time step that efficiently evolves the system through multiple seismic cycles. The implementation leverages advanced parallel solvers, preconditioners and linear algebra from the Portable Extensible Toolkit for Scientific Computing (PETSc) library. The model can treat heterogeneous frictional properties and stress states on the fault and surrounding solid as well as non-planar fault geometries. Preliminary tests show that the model successfully reproduces dynamic rupture on a vertical strike-slip fault in a half-space governed by rate-state friction with the ageing law.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fleitout, L.; Trubienko, O.; Garaud, J.; Vigny, C.; Cailletaud, G.; Simons, W. J.; Satirapod, C.; Shestakov, N.
2012-12-01
A 3D finite element code (Zebulon-Zset) is used to model deformations through the seismic cycle in the areas surrounding the last three large subduction earthquakes: Sumatra, Japan and Chile. The mesh featuring a broad spherical shell portion with a viscoelastic asthenosphere is refined close to the subduction zones. The model is constrained by 6 years of postseismic data in Sumatra area and over a year of data for Japan and Chile plus preseismic data in the three areas. The coseismic displacements on the subduction plane are inverted from the coseismic displacements using the finite element program and provide the initial stresses. The predicted horizontal postseismic displacements depend upon the thicknesses of the elastic plate and of the low viscosity asthenosphere. Non-dimensionalized by the coseismic displacements, they present an almost uniform value between 500km and 1500km from the trench for elastic plates 80km thick. The time evolution of the velocities is function of the creep law (Maxwell, Burger or power-law creep). Moreover, the forward models predict a sizable far-field subsidence, also with a spatial distribution which varies with the geometry of the asthenosphere and lithosphere. Slip on the subduction interface does not induce such a subsidence. The observed horizontal velocities, divided by the coseismic displacement, present a similar pattern as function of time and distance from trench for the three areas, indicative of similar lithospheric and asthenospheric thicknesses and asthenospheric viscosity. This pattern cannot be fitted with power-law creep in the asthenosphere but indicates a lithosphere 60 to 90km thick and an asthenosphere of thickness of the order of 100km with a burger rheology represented by a Kelvin-Voigt element with a viscosity of 3.1018Pas and μKelvin=μelastic/3. A second Kelvin-Voigt element with very limited amplitude may explain some characteristics of the short time-scale signal. The postseismic subsidence is
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
di Giovambattista, R.; Tyupkin, Yu
The cyclic migration of weak earthquakes (M 2.2) which occurred during the yearprior to the October 15, 1996 (M = 4.9) Reggio Emilia earthquake isdiscussed in this paper. The onset of this migration was associated with theoccurrence of the October 10, 1995 (M = 4.8) Lunigiana earthquakeabout 90 km southwest from the epicenter of the Reggio Emiliaearthquake. At least three series of earthquakes migrating from theepicentral area of the Lunigiana earthquake in the northeast direction wereobserved. The migration of earthquakes of the first series terminated at adistance of about 30 km from the epicenter of the Reggio Emiliaearthquake. The earthquake migration of the other two series halted atabout 10 km from the Reggio Emilia epicenter. The average rate ofearthquake migration was about 200-300 km/year, while the time ofrecurrence of the observed cycles varied from 68 to 178 days. Weakearthquakes migrated along the transversal fault zones and sometimesjumped from one fault to another. A correlation between the migratingearthquakes and tidal variations is analysed. We discuss the hypothesis thatthe analyzed area is in a state of stress approaching the limit of thelong-term durability of crustal rocks and that the observed cyclic migrationis a result of a combination of a more or less regular evolution of tectonicand tidal variations.
The Alaska earthquake, March 27, 1964: effects on hydrologic regimen
Waller, Roger M.; Coble, R.W.; Post, Austin; McGarr, Arthur; Vorhis, Robert C.
1966-01-01
This is the fourth in a series of six reports that the U.S. Geological Survey published on the results of a comprehensive geologic study that began, as a reconnaissance survey, within 24 hours after the March 27, 1964, Magnitude 9.2 Great Alaska Earthquake and extended, as detailed investigations, through several field seasons. The 1964 Great Alaska earthquake was the largest earthquake in the U.S. since 1700. Professional Paper 544, in 5 parts, describes the effects on hydrologic regimen.
A finite difference method for off-fault plasticity throughout the earthquake cycle
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Erickson, Brittany A.; Dunham, Eric M.; Khosravifar, Arash
2017-12-01
We have developed an efficient computational framework for simulating multiple earthquake cycles with off-fault plasticity. The method is developed for the classical antiplane problem of a vertical strike-slip fault governed by rate-and-state friction, with inertial effects captured through the radiation-damping approximation. Both rate-independent plasticity and viscoplasticity are considered, where stresses are constrained by a Drucker-Prager yield condition. The off-fault volume is discretized using finite differences and tectonic loading is imposed by displacing the remote side boundaries at a constant rate. Time-stepping combines an adaptive Runge-Kutta method with an incremental solution process which makes use of an elastoplastic tangent stiffness tensor and the return-mapping algorithm. Solutions are verified by convergence tests and comparison to a finite element solution. We quantify how viscosity, isotropic hardening, and cohesion affect the magnitude and off-fault extent of plastic strain that develops over many ruptures. If hardening is included, plastic strain saturates after the first event and the response during subsequent ruptures is effectively elastic. For viscoplasticity without hardening, however, successive ruptures continue to generate additional plastic strain. In all cases, coseismic slip in the shallow sub-surface is diminished compared to slip accumulated at depth during interseismic loading. The evolution of this slip deficit with each subsequent event, however, is dictated by the plasticity model. Integration of the off-fault plastic strain from the viscoplastic model reveals that a significant amount of tectonic offset is accommodated by inelastic deformation ( ∼ 0.1 m per rupture, or ∼ 10% of the tectonic deformation budget).
Equivalent strike-slip earthquake cycles in half-space and lithosphere-asthenosphere earth models
Savage, J.C.
1990-01-01
By virtue of the images used in the dislocation solution, the deformation at the free surface produced throughout the earthquake cycle by slippage on a long strike-slip fault in an Earth model consisting of an elastic plate (lithosphere) overlying a viscoelastic half-space (asthenosphere) can be duplicated by prescribed slip on a vertical fault embedded in an elastic half-space. Inversion of 1973-1988 geodetic measurements of deformation across the segment of the San Andreas fault in the Transverse Ranges north of Los Angeles for the half-space equivalent slip distribution suggests no significant slip on the fault above 30 km and a uniform slip rate of 36 mm/yr below 30 km. One equivalent lithosphere-asthenosphere model would have a 30-km thick lithosphere and an asthenosphere relaxation time greater than 33 years, but other models are possible. -from Author
Earthquake Early Warning: User Education and Designing Effective Messages
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Burkett, E. R.; Sellnow, D. D.; Jones, L.; Sellnow, T. L.
2014-12-01
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and partners are transitioning from test-user trials of a demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) to deciding and preparing how to implement the release of earthquake early warning information, alert messages, and products to the public and other stakeholders. An earthquake early warning system uses seismic station networks to rapidly gather information about an occurring earthquake and send notifications to user devices ahead of the arrival of potentially damaging ground shaking at their locations. Earthquake early warning alerts can thereby allow time for actions to protect lives and property before arrival of damaging shaking, if users are properly educated on how to use and react to such notifications. A collaboration team of risk communications researchers and earth scientists is researching the effectiveness of a chosen subset of potential earthquake early warning interface designs and messages, which could be displayed on a device such as a smartphone. Preliminary results indicate, for instance, that users prefer alerts that include 1) a map to relate their location to the earthquake and 2) instructions for what to do in response to the expected level of shaking. A number of important factors must be considered to design a message that will promote appropriate self-protective behavior. While users prefer to see a map, how much information can be processed in limited time? Are graphical representations of wavefronts helpful or confusing? The most important factor to promote a helpful response is the predicted earthquake intensity, or how strong the expected shaking will be at the user's location. Unlike Japanese users of early warning, few Californians are familiar with the earthquake intensity scale, so we are exploring how differentiating instructions between intensity levels (e.g., "Be aware" for lower shaking levels and "Drop, cover, hold on" at high levels) can be paired with self-directed supplemental
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Graham, Shannon E.
Using surface deformation measured by GPS stations within Mexico and Central America, I model coseismic slip, Coulomb stress changes, postseismic afterslip, and slow slip events in order to increase our knowledge of the earthquake deformation cycle in seismically hazardous regions. In Chapter 1, I use GPS data to estimate coseismic slip due to the May 28, 2009 Swan Islands fault earthquake off the coast of Honduras and then use the slip distribution to calculate Coulomb stress changes for the earthquake. Coulomb stress change calculations resolve stress transfer to the seismically hazardous Motagua fault and further show an unclamping of normal faults in northern Honduras. In Chapter 2, the focus shifts to southern Mexico, where continuous GPS measurements since the mid-1990s are revolutionizing our understanding of the flatly subducting Cocos plate. I perform a time-dependent inversion of continuous GPS observations of the 2011-2012 slow slip event (SSE) to estimate the location and magnitude of slow slip preceding the March 20, 2012 Ometepec earthquake. Coulomb stress changes as a result of slip during the SSE are consistent with the hypothesis that the SSE triggered the Ometepec earthquake. Chapter 3 describes inversions for slip both during and after the Ometepec earthquake. Time-dependent modeling of the first six months of postseismic deformation reveals that fault afterslip extended ˜250 km inland to depths of ˜50 km along the Cocos plate subduction. The postseismic afterslip and previous SSEs in southern Mexico occur at similar depths down-dip from the seismogenic zone, indicating that transitional areas of the subduction interface underlie much of southern Mexico. Finally, I perform the first time-dependent modeling of SSEs below Mexico and the first to exploit all available continuous GPS stations in southern and central Mexico. The results provide a more complete and consistent catalog of modeled SSE for the Mexico subduction zone (MSZ) than is
Comparison of two large earthquakes: the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake and the 2011 East Japan Earthquake.
Otani, Yuki; Ando, Takayuki; Atobe, Kaori; Haiden, Akina; Kao, Sheng-Yuan; Saito, Kohei; Shimanuki, Marie; Yoshimoto, Norifumi; Fukunaga, Koichi
2012-01-01
Between August 15th and 19th, 2011, eight 5th-year medical students from the Keio University School of Medicine had the opportunity to visit the Peking University School of Medicine and hold a discussion session titled "What is the most effective way to educate people for survival in an acute disaster situation (before the mental health care stage)?" During the session, we discussed the following six points: basic information regarding the Sichuan Earthquake and the East Japan Earthquake, differences in preparedness for earthquakes, government actions, acceptance of medical rescue teams, earthquake-induced secondary effects, and media restrictions. Although comparison of the two earthquakes was not simple, we concluded that three major points should be emphasized to facilitate the most effective course of disaster planning and action. First, all relevant agencies should formulate emergency plans and should supply information regarding the emergency to the general public and health professionals on a normal basis. Second, each citizen should be educated and trained in how to minimize the risks from earthquake-induced secondary effects. Finally, the central government should establish a single headquarters responsible for command, control, and coordination during a natural disaster emergency and should centralize all powers in this single authority. We hope this discussion may be of some use in future natural disasters in China, Japan, and worldwide.
Effects induced by an earthquake on its fault plane:a boundary element study
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bonafede, Maurizio; Neri, Andrea
2000-04-01
Mechanical effects left by a model earthquake on its fault plane, in the post-seismic phase, are investigated employing the `displacement discontinuity method'. Simple crack models, characterized by the release of a constant, unidirectional shear traction are investigated first. Both slip components-parallel and normal to the traction direction-are found to be non-vanishing and to depend on fault depth, dip, aspect ratio and fault plane geometry. The rake of the slip vector is similarly found to depend on depth and dip. The fault plane is found to suffer some small rotation and bending, which may be responsible for the indentation of a transform tectonic margin, particularly if cumulative effects are considered. Very significant normal stress components are left over the shallow portion of the fault surface after an earthquake: these are tensile for thrust faults, compressive for normal faults and are typically comparable in size to the stress drop. These normal stresses can easily be computed for more realistic seismic source models, in which a variable slip is assigned; normal stresses are induced in these cases too, and positive shear stresses may even be induced on the fault plane in regions of high slip gradient. Several observations can be explained from the present model: low-dip thrust faults and high-dip normal faults are found to be facilitated, according to the Coulomb failure criterion, in repetitive earthquake cycles; the shape of dip-slip faults near the surface is predicted to be upward-concave; and the shallower aftershock activity generally found in the hanging block of a thrust event can be explained by `unclamping' mechanisms.
Effect of repeated earthquake on inelastic moment resisting concrete frame
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tahara, R. M. K.; Majid, T. A.; Zaini, S. S.; Faisal, A.
2017-10-01
This paper investigates the response of inelastic moment resisting concrete building under repeated earthquakes. 2D models consist of 3-storey, 6-storey and 9-storey representing low to medium rise building frame were designed using seismic load and ductility class medium (DCM) according to the requirements set by Euro Code 8. Behaviour factor and stiffness degradation were also taken into consideration. Seven sets of real repeated earthquakes as opposed to artificial earthquakes data were used. The response of the frame was measured in terms of the inter-storey drift and maximum displacement. By adopting repeated earthquake, the recorded mean IDR increased in the range of 3% - 21%. Similarly, in the case of maximum displacement, the values also increased from 20 mm to 40 mm. The findings concluded that the effect of using repeated earthquake in seismic analysis considerably influenced the inter-storey drift and the maximum displacement.
Effects of deep basins on structural collapse during large subduction earthquakes
Marafi, Nasser A.; Eberhard, Marc O.; Berman, Jeffrey W.; Wirth, Erin A.; Frankel, Arthur
2017-01-01
Deep sedimentary basins are known to increase the intensity of ground motions, but this effect is implicitly considered in seismic hazard maps used in U.S. building codes. The basin amplification of ground motions from subduction earthquakes is particularly important in the Pacific Northwest, where the hazard at long periods is dominated by such earthquakes. This paper evaluates the effects of basins on spectral accelerations, ground-motion duration, spectral shape, and structural collapse using subduction earthquake recordings from basins in Japan that have similar depths as the Puget Lowland basin. For three of the Japanese basins and the Puget Lowland basin, the spectral accelerations were amplified by a factor of 2 to 4 for periods above 2.0 s. The long-duration subduction earthquakes and the effects of basins on spectral shape combined, lower the spectral accelerations at collapse for a set of building archetypes relative to other ground motions. For the hypothetical case in which these motions represent the entire hazard, the archetypes would need to increase up to 3.3 times its strength to compensate for these effects.
Triple-effect absorption chiller cycle: A step beyond double-effect cycles
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
DeVault, R.C.
1990-01-01
Many advanced'' absorption cycles have been proposed during the current century. Of the hundreds of absorption cycles which have been patented throughout the world, all commercially manufactured products for air conditioning buildings have been variations of just two basic absorption cycles: single-effect and condenser-coupled double-effect cycles. The relatively low cooling coefficients of performance (COPs) inherent in single-effect and double-effect cycles limits the economic applicability of absorption air conditioners (chillers) in the United States. A triple-effect absorption chiller cycle is discussed. This cycle uses two condensers and two absorbers to achieve the triple effect.'' Depending on the absorption fluids selected, thismore » triple-effect cycle is predicted to improve cooling COPs by 18% to 60% compared with the equivalent double-effect cycle. This performance improvement is obtained without increasing the total amount of heat-transfer surface area needed for the heat exchangers. A comparison between the calculated performances of a double-effect cycle and a triple-effect cycle (both using ammonia-water (NH{sub 3}/H{sub 2}O) as the absorption fluid pair) is presented. The triple-effect cycle is predicted to have an 18% higher cooling COP (1.41 compared with 1.2 for a double-effect), lower pressure (47.70 atm (701 psi) instead of 68.05 atm (1000 psi)), significantly reduced pumping power (less than one-half that of the double-effect cycle), and potentially lower construction cost (33% less total heat exchange needed). Practical implications for this triple-effect cycle are discussed. 16 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.« less
A Brownian model for recurrent earthquakes
Matthews, M.V.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Reasenberg, P.A.
2002-01-01
We construct a probability model for rupture times on a recurrent earthquake source. Adding Brownian perturbations to steady tectonic loading produces a stochastic load-state process. Rupture is assumed to occur when this process reaches a critical-failure threshold. An earthquake relaxes the load state to a characteristic ground level and begins a new failure cycle. The load-state process is a Brownian relaxation oscillator. Intervals between events have a Brownian passage-time distribution that may serve as a temporal model for time-dependent, long-term seismic forecasting. This distribution has the following noteworthy properties: (1) the probability of immediate rerupture is zero; (2) the hazard rate increases steadily from zero at t = 0 to a finite maximum near the mean recurrence time and then decreases asymptotically to a quasi-stationary level, in which the conditional probability of an event becomes time independent; and (3) the quasi-stationary failure rate is greater than, equal to, or less than the mean failure rate because the coefficient of variation is less than, equal to, or greater than 1/???2 ??? 0.707. In addition, the model provides expressions for the hazard rate and probability of rupture on faults for which only a bound can be placed on the time of the last rupture. The Brownian relaxation oscillator provides a connection between observable event times and a formal state variable that reflects the macromechanics of stress and strain accumulation. Analysis of this process reveals that the quasi-stationary distance to failure has a gamma distribution, and residual life has a related exponential distribution. It also enables calculation of "interaction" effects due to external perturbations to the state, such as stress-transfer effects from earthquakes outside the target source. The influence of interaction effects on recurrence times is transient and strongly dependent on when in the loading cycle step pertubations occur. Transient effects may
Earth's rotation variations and earthquakes 2010-2011
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ostřihanský, L.
2012-01-01
In contrast to unsuccessful searching (lasting over 150 years) for correlation of earthquakes with biweekly tides, the author found correlation of earthquakes with sidereal 13.66 days Earth's rotation variations expressed as length of a day (LOD) measured daily by International Earth's Rotation Service. After short mention about earthquakes M 8.8 Denali Fault Alaska 3 November 2002 triggered on LOD maximum and M 9.1 Great Sumatra earthquake 26 December 2004 triggered on LOD minimum and the full Moon, the main object of this paper are earthquakes of period 2010-June 2011: M 7.0 Haiti (12 January 2010 on LOD minimum, M 8.8 Maule Chile 12 February 2010 on LOD maximum, map constructed on the Indian plate revealing 6 earthquakes from 7 on LOD minimum in Sumatra and Andaman Sea region, M 7.1 New Zealand Christchurch 9 September 2010 on LOD minimum and M 6.3 Christchurch 21 February 2011 on LOD maximum, and M 9.1 Japan near coast of Honshu 11 March 2011 on LOD minimum. It was found that LOD minimums coincide with full or new Moon only twice in a year in solstices. To prove that determined coincidences of earthquakes and LOD extremes stated above are not accidental events, histograms were constructed of earthquake occurrences and their position on LOD graph deeply in the past, in some cases from the time the IERS (International Earth's Rotation Service) started to measure the Earth's rotation variations in 1962. Evaluations of histograms and the Schuster's test have proven that majority of earthquakes are triggered in both Earth's rotation deceleration and acceleration. Because during these coincidences evident movements of lithosphere occur, among others measured by GPS, it is concluded that Earth's rotation variations effectively contribute to the lithospheric plates movement. Retrospective overview of past earthquakes revealed that the Great Sumatra earthquake 26 December 2004 had its equivalent in the shape of LOD graph, full Moon position, and character of aftershocks
Wald, David J.
2010-01-01
This study presents a quantitative and geospatial description of global losses due to earthquake-induced secondary effects, including landslide, liquefaction, tsunami, and fire for events during the past 40 years. These processes are of great importance to the US Geological Survey’s (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, which is currently being developed to deliver rapid earthquake impact and loss assessments following large/significant global earthquakes. An important question is how dominant are losses due to secondary effects (and under what conditions, and in which regions)? Thus, which of these effects should receive higher priority research efforts in order to enhance PAGER’s overall assessment of earthquakes losses and alerting for the likelihood of secondary impacts? We find that while 21.5% of fatal earthquakes have deaths due to secondary (non-shaking) causes, only rarely are secondary effects the main cause of fatalities. The recent 2004 Great Sumatra–Andaman Islands earthquake is a notable exception, with extraordinary losses due to tsunami. The potential for secondary hazards varies greatly, and systematically, due to regional geologic and geomorphic conditions. Based on our findings, we have built country-specific disclaimers for PAGER that address potential for each hazard (Earle et al., Proceedings of the 14th World Conference of the Earthquake Engineering, Beijing, China, 2008). We will now focus on ways to model casualties from secondary effects based on their relative importance as well as their general predictability.
Catalog of Hawaiian earthquakes, 1823-1959
Klein, Fred W.; Wright, Thomas L.
2000-01-01
This catalog of more than 17,000 Hawaiian earthquakes (of magnitude greater than or equal to 5), principally located on the Island of Hawaii, from 1823 through the third quarter of 1959 is designed to expand our ability to evaluate seismic hazard in Hawaii, as well as our knowledge of Hawaiian seismic rhythms as they relate to eruption cycles at Kilauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes and to subcrustal earthquake patterns related to the tectonic evolution of the Hawaiian chain.
Earthquake cycle simulations with rate-and-state friction and power-law viscoelasticity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Allison, Kali L.; Dunham, Eric M.
2018-05-01
We simulate earthquake cycles with rate-and-state fault friction and off-fault power-law viscoelasticity for the classic 2D antiplane shear problem of a vertical, strike-slip plate boundary fault. We investigate the interaction between fault slip and bulk viscous flow with experimentally-based flow laws for quartz-diorite and olivine for the crust and mantle, respectively. Simulations using three linear geotherms (dT/dz = 20, 25, and 30 K/km) produce different deformation styles at depth, ranging from significant interseismic fault creep to purely bulk viscous flow. However, they have almost identical earthquake recurrence interval, nucleation depth, and down-dip coseismic slip limit. Despite these similarities, variations in the predicted surface deformation might permit discrimination of the deformation mechanism using geodetic observations. Additionally, in the 25 and 30 K/km simulations, the crust drags the mantle; the 20 K/km simulation also predicts this, except within 10 km of the fault where the reverse occurs. However, basal tractions play a minor role in the overall force balance of the lithosphere, at least for the flow laws used in our study. Therefore, the depth-integrated stress on the fault is balanced primarily by shear stress on vertical, fault-parallel planes. Because strain rates are higher directly below the fault than far from it, stresses are also higher. Thus, the upper crust far from the fault bears a substantial part of the tectonic load, resulting in unrealistically high stresses. In the real Earth, this might lead to distributed plastic deformation or formation of subparallel faults. Alternatively, fault pore pressures in excess of hydrostatic and/or weakening mechanisms such as grain size reduction and thermo-mechanical coupling could lower the strength of the ductile fault root in the lower crust and, concomitantly, off-fault upper crustal stresses.
Jumping over the hurdles to effectively communicate the Operational Earthquake Forecast
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McBride, S.; Wein, A. M.; Becker, J.; Potter, S.; Tilley, E. N.; Gerstenberger, M.; Orchiston, C.; Johnston, D. M.
2016-12-01
Probabilities, uncertainties, statistics, science, and threats are notoriously difficult topics to communicate with members of the public. The Operational Earthquake Forecast (OEF) is designed to provide an understanding of potential numbers and sizes of earthquakes and the communication of it must address all of those challenges. Furthermore, there are other barriers to effective communication of the OEF. These barriers include the erosion of trust in scientists and experts, oversaturation of messages, fear and threat messages magnified by the sensalisation of the media, fractured media environments and online echo chambers. Given the complexities and challenges of the OEF, how can we overcome barriers to effective communication? Crisis and risk communication research can inform the development of communication strategies to increase the public understanding and use of the OEF, when applied to the opportunities and challenges of practice. We explore ongoing research regarding how the OEF can be more effectively communicated - including the channels, tools and message composition to engage with a variety of publics. We also draw on past experience and a study of OEF communication during the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES). We demonstrate how research and experience has guided OEF communications during subsequent events in New Zealand, including the M5.7 Valentine's Day earthquake in 2016 (CES), M6.0 Wilberforce earthquake in 2015, and the Cook Strait/Lake Grassmere earthquakes in 2013. We identify the successes and lessons learned of the practical communication of the OEF. Finally, we present future projects and directions in the communication of OEF, informed by both practice and research.
Liquefaction Effects from the Bhuj earthquake
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
2001-01-01
surface. Field investigations have found abundant evidence of mud volcanos, sand boils, and fissures from which salty ground water erupted over an area exceeding 10,000 square kilometers. Evidence of the expelled water can also be seen on the MISR images.
Notice the delicate, dendritic pattern of stream channels throughout many of the salt-flats on the post-earthquake image, especially due north of the epicenter. These carried water brought to the surface by liquefaction during the earthquake. Areas where shallow surface water is present are much easier to see on the false-color multi-angle composite images. Wet areas are exhibiting a combination of enhanced forward-scattered light due to the reflection by the water, and enhanced backward scattering due to surface roughness or the presence of sediments. This combination results in blue to purple hues.The region of sand dunes in the upper right and the Indus River valley and delta in the upper left are inside Pakistan. Near the top of the images, there is an east-west trending linear feature separating the Thar desert of Pakistan from the Rann of Kachchh. This is the Nagar Parkar Fault. On both pre-earthquake images, this feature is evident only from the contrasting brown colors on either side of it. On the post-earthquake images, a narrow ribbon defines the boundary between the two geologic provinces. However, only in the multi-angle composite do we see evidence that this ribbon may be a water-filled channel. Because this area is politically sensitive and fairly inaccessible, no field teams have been able to verify liquefaction effects or the presence of water there.MISR was built and is managed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, for NASA's Office of Earth Science, Washington, DC. The Terra satellite is managed by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology.Assessment of earthquake effects - contribution from online communication
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
D'Amico, Sebastiano; Agius, Matthew; Galea, Pauline
2014-05-01
The rapid increase of social media and online newspapers in the last years have given the opportunity to make a national investigation on macroseismic effects on the Maltese Islands based on felt earthquake reports. A magnitude 4.1 earthquake struck close to Malta on Sunday 24th April 2011 at 13:02 GMT. The earthquake was preceded and followed by a series of smaller magnitude quakes throughout the day, most of which were felt by the locals on the island. The continuous news media coverage during the day and the extensive sharing of the news item on social media resulted in a strong public response to fill in the 'Did you feel it?' online form on the website of the Seismic Monitoring and Research Unit (SMRU) at the University of Malta (http://seismic.research.um.edu.mt/). The results yield interesting information about the demographics of the island, and the different felt experiences possibly relating to geological settings and diverse structural and age-classified buildings. Based on this case study, the SMRU is in the process of developing a mobile phone application dedicated to share earthquake information to the local community. The application will automatically prompt users to fill in a simplified 'Did you feel it?' report to potentially felt earthquakes. Automatic location using Global Positioning Systems can be incorporated to provide a 'real time' intensity map that can be used by the Civil Protection Department.
Memory effect in M ≥ 6 earthquakes of South-North Seismic Belt, Mainland China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Jeen-Hwa
2013-07-01
The M ≥ 6 earthquakes occurred in the South-North Seismic Belt, Mainland China, during 1901-2008 are taken to study the possible existence of memory effect in large earthquakes. The fluctuation analysis technique is applied to analyze the sequences of earthquake magnitude and inter-event time represented in the natural time domain. Calculated results show that the exponents of scaling law of fluctuation versus window length are less than 0.5 for the sequences of earthquake magnitude and inter-event time. The migration of earthquakes in study is taken to discuss the possible correlation between events. The phase portraits of two sequent magnitudes and two sequent inter-event times are also applied to explore if large (or small) earthquakes are followed by large (or small) events. Together with all kinds of given information, we conclude that the earthquakes in study is short-term correlated and thus the short-term memory effect would be operative.
The repetition of large-earthquake ruptures.
Sieh, K
1996-01-01
This survey of well-documented repeated fault rupture confirms that some faults have exhibited a "characteristic" behavior during repeated large earthquakes--that is, the magnitude, distribution, and style of slip on the fault has repeated during two or more consecutive events. In two cases faults exhibit slip functions that vary little from earthquake to earthquake. In one other well-documented case, however, fault lengths contrast markedly for two consecutive ruptures, but the amount of offset at individual sites was similar. Adjacent individual patches, 10 km or more in length, failed singly during one event and in tandem during the other. More complex cases of repetition may also represent the failure of several distinct patches. The faults of the 1992 Landers earthquake provide an instructive example of such complexity. Together, these examples suggest that large earthquakes commonly result from the failure of one or more patches, each characterized by a slip function that is roughly invariant through consecutive earthquake cycles. The persistence of these slip-patches through two or more large earthquakes indicates that some quasi-invariant physical property controls the pattern and magnitude of slip. These data seem incompatible with theoretical models that produce slip distributions that are highly variable in consecutive large events. Images Fig. 3 Fig. 7 Fig. 9 PMID:11607662
The finite, kinematic rupture properties of great-sized earthquakes since 1990
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hayes, Gavin P.
2017-06-01
Here, I present a database of >160 finite fault models for all earthquakes of M 7.5 and above since 1990, created using a consistent modeling approach. The use of a common approach facilitates easier comparisons between models, and reduces uncertainties that arise when comparing models generated by different authors, data sets and modeling techniques. I use this database to verify published scaling relationships, and for the first time show a clear and intriguing relationship between maximum potency (the product of slip and area) and average potency for a given earthquake. This relationship implies that earthquakes do not reach the potential size given by the tectonic load of a fault (sometimes called ;moment deficit,; calculated via a plate rate over time since the last earthquake, multiplied by geodetic fault coupling). Instead, average potency (or slip) scales with but is less than maximum potency (dictated by tectonic loading). Importantly, this relationship facilitates a more accurate assessment of maximum earthquake size for a given fault segment, and thus has implications for long-term hazard assessments. The relationship also suggests earthquake cycles may not completely reset after a large earthquake, and thus repeat rates of such events may appear shorter than is expected from tectonic loading. This in turn may help explain the phenomenon of ;earthquake super-cycles; observed in some global subduction zones.
Frequency characteristics and far-field effect of gravity perturbation before earthquake
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Qiang, Jian-Ke; Lu, Kai; Zhang, Qian-Jiang; Man, Kai-Feng; Li, Jun-Ying; Mao, Xian-Cheng; Lai, Jian-Qing
2017-03-01
We used high-pass filtering and the Fourier transform to analyze tidal gravity data prior to five earthquakes from four superconducting gravity stations around the world. A stable gravitational perturbation signal is received within a few days before the earthquakes. The gravitational perturbation signal before the Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008 has main frequency of 0.1-0.3 Hz, and the other four have frequency bands of 0.12-0.17 Hz and 0.06-0.085 Hz. For earthquakes in continental and oceanic plate fault zones, gravity anomalies often appear on the superconducting gravimeters away from the epicenter, whereas the stations near the epicenter record small or no anomalies. The results suggest that this kind of gravitational perturbation signals correlate with earthquake occurrence, making them potentially useful earthquake predictors. The far-field effect of the gravitational perturbation signals may reveal the interaction mechanisms of the Earth's tectonic plates. However, owing to the uneven distribution of gravity tide stations, the results need to be further confirmed in the future.
33 CFR 222.4 - Reporting earthquake effects.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR
2010-07-01
..., DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE ENGINEERING AND DESIGN § 222.4 Reporting earthquake effects. (a) Purpose. This... structural integrity and operational adequacy of major Civil Works structures following the occurrence of...) Applicability. This regulation is applicable to all field operating agencies having Civil Works responsibilities...
Vorhis, Robert C.; Rexin, Elmer E.; Coble, R.W.
1967-01-01
The Alaska earthquake of March 27, 1964, had widespread hydrologic effects throughout practically all of the United States. More than 1,450 water-level recorders, scattered throughout all the 50 States except Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island, registered the earthquake. Half of the water-level records were obtained from ground-water observation wells and half at surface-water gaging stations. The earthquake is also known to have registered on water-level recorders on wells in Canada, England, Denmark, Belgium, Egypt, Israel, Libya, Philippine Islands, South-West Africa, South Africa, and Northern Territory of Australia. The Alaska earthquake is the first for which widespread surface-water effects are known. The effects were recorded at stations on flowing streams, rivers, reservoirs, lakes, and ponds. The 755 surface-water stations recording effects are spread through 38 States, but are most numerous in the south-central and southeastern States, especially in Florida and Louisiana. Most of the fluctuations recorded can be referred to more precisely as seismic seiches; however, a few stations recorded the quake as a minor change in stage. The largest recorded seiche outside Alaska was 1.83 feet on a reservoir in Michigan. The next largest was 1.45 feet on Lake Ouachita in Arkansas. The largest fluctuation in a well was 23 feet registered by a pressure recorder near Belle Fourche, S. Dak. Fluctuations of more than 10 feet were reported from wells in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, and Pennsylvania. A 3.40-foot fluctuation was recorded in a well in Puerto Rico. The Alaska earthquake was registered by about seven times as many water-level recorders as recorded the Hebgen Lake, Mont., earthquake of August 19, 1959.
A Cooperative Test of the Load/Unload Response Ratio Proposed Method of Earthquake Prediction
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Trotta, J. E.; Tullis, T. E.
2004-12-01
The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is a proposed technique to predict earthquakes that was first put forward by Yin in 1984 (Yin, 1987). LURR is based on the idea that when a region is near failure, there is an increase in the rate of seismic activity during loading of the tidal cycle relative to the rate of seismic activity during unloading of the tidal cycle. Typically the numerator of the LURR ratio is the number, or the sum of some measure of the size (e.g. Benioff strain), of small earthquakes that occur during loading of the tidal cycle, whereas the denominator is the same as the numerator except it is calculated during unloading. LURR method suggests this ratio should increase in the months to year preceding a large earthquake. Regions near failure have tectonic stresses nearly high enough for a large earthquake to occur, thus it seems more likely that smaller earthquakes in the region would be triggered when the tidal stresses add to the tectonic ones. However, until recently even the most careful studies suggested that the effect of tidal stresses on earthquake occurrence is very small and difficult to detect. New studies have shown that there is a tidal triggering effect on shallow thrust faults in areas with strong tides from ocean loading (Tanaka et al., 2002; Cochran et al., 2004). We have been conducting an independent test of the LURR method, since there would be important scientific and social implications if the LURR method were proven to be a robust method of earthquake prediction. Smith and Sammis (2003) also undertook a similar study. Following both the parameters of Yin et al. (2000) and the somewhat different ones of Smith and Sammis (2003), we have repeated calculations of LURR for the Northridge and Loma Prieta earthquakes in California. Though we have followed both sets of parameters closely, we have been unable to reproduce either set of results. A general agreement was made at the recent ACES Workshop in China between research
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Hofmann, R.B.
1995-09-01
Analogs are used to understand complex or poorly understood phenomena for which little data may be available at the actual repository site. Earthquakes are complex phenomena, and they can have a large number of effects on the natural system, as well as on engineered structures. Instrumental data close to the source of large earthquakes are rarely obtained. The rare events for which measurements are available may be used, with modfications, as analogs for potential large earthquakes at sites where no earthquake data are available. In the following, several examples of nuclear reactor and liquified natural gas facility siting are discussed.more » A potential use of analog earthquakes is proposed for a high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repository.« less
Post earthquake recovery in natural gas systems--1971 San Fernando Earthquake
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Johnson, W.T. Jr.
1983-01-01
In this paper a concise summary of the post earthquake investigations for the 1971 San Fernando Earthquake is presented. The effects of the earthquake upon building and other above ground structures are briefly discussed. Then the damages and subsequent repairs in the natural gas systems are reported.
Marano, K.D.; Wald, D.J.; Allen, T.I.
2010-01-01
This study presents a quantitative and geospatial description of global losses due to earthquake-induced secondary effects, including landslide, liquefaction, tsunami, and fire for events during the past 40 years. These processes are of great importance to the US Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, which is currently being developed to deliver rapid earthquake impact and loss assessments following large/significant global earthquakes. An important question is how dominant are losses due to secondary effects (and under what conditions, and in which regions)? Thus, which of these effects should receive higher priority research efforts in order to enhance PAGER's overall assessment of earthquakes losses and alerting for the likelihood of secondary impacts? We find that while 21.5% of fatal earthquakes have deaths due to secondary (non-shaking) causes, only rarely are secondary effects the main cause of fatalities. The recent 2004 Great Sumatra-Andaman Islands earthquake is a notable exception, with extraordinary losses due to tsunami. The potential for secondary hazards varies greatly, and systematically, due to regional geologic and geomorphic conditions. Based on our findings, we have built country-specific disclaimers for PAGER that address potential for each hazard (Earle et al., Proceedings of the 14th World Conference of the Earthquake Engineering, Beijing, China, 2008). We will now focus on ways to model casualties from secondary effects based on their relative importance as well as their general predictability. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.
[Earthquakes--a historical review, environmental and health effects, and health care measures].
Nola, Iskra Alexandra; Doko Jelinić, Jagoda; Žuškin, Eugenija; Kratohvil, Mladen
2013-06-01
Earthquakes are natural disasters that can occur at any time, regardless of the location. Their frequency is higher in the Circum-Pacific and Mediterranean/Trans-Asian seismic belt. A number of sophisticated methods define their magnitude using the Richter scale and intensity using the Mercani-Cancani-Sieberg scale. Recorded data show a number of devastating earthquakes that have killed many people and changed the environment dramatically. Croatia is located in a seismically active area, which has endured a series of historical earthquakes, among which several occurred in the Zagreb area. The consequences of an earthquake depend mostly on the population density and seismic resistance of buildings in the affected area. Environmental consequences often include air, water, and soil pollution. The effects of this kind of pollution can have long-term health effects. The most dramatic health consequences result from the demolition of buildings. Therefore, quick and efficient aid depends on well-organized health professionals as well as on the readiness of the civil defence, fire department, and Mountain Rescue Service members. Good coordination among these services can save many lives Public health interventions must include effective control measures in the environment as secondary prevention methods for health problems caused by unfavourable environmental factors. The identification and control of long-term hazards can reduce chronic health effects. The reduction of earthquake-induced damages includes setting priorities in building seismically safe buildings.
Implications of the earthquake cycle for inferring fault locking on the Cascadia megathrust
Pollitz, Fred; Evans, Eileen
2017-01-01
GPS velocity fields in the Western US have been interpreted with various physical models of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system: (1) time-independent block models; (2) time-dependent viscoelastic-cycle models, where deformation is driven by viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle from past faulting events; (3) viscoelastic block models, a time-dependent variation of the block model. All three models are generally driven by a combination of loading on locked faults and (aseismic) fault creep. Here we construct viscoelastic block models and viscoelastic-cycle models for the Western US, focusing on the Pacific Northwest and the earthquake cycle on the Cascadia megathrust. In the viscoelastic block model, the western US is divided into blocks selected from an initial set of 137 microplates using the method of Total Variation Regularization, allowing potential trade-offs between faulting and megathrust coupling to be determined algorithmically from GPS observations. Fault geometry, slip rate, and locking rates (i.e. the locking fraction times the long term slip rate) are estimated simultaneously within the TVR block model. For a range of mantle asthenosphere viscosity (4.4 × 1018 to 3.6 × 1020 Pa s) we find that fault locking on the megathrust is concentrated in the uppermost 20 km in depth, and a locking rate contour line of 30 mm yr−1 extends deepest beneath the Olympic Peninsula, characteristics similar to previous time-independent block model results. These results are corroborated by viscoelastic-cycle modelling. The average locking rate required to fit the GPS velocity field depends on mantle viscosity, being higher the lower the viscosity. Moreover, for viscosity ≲ 1020 Pa s, the amount of inferred locking is higher than that obtained using a time-independent block model. This suggests that time-dependent models for a range of admissible viscosity structures could refine our knowledge of the locking distribution and its epistemic
Bayesian exploration of recent Chilean earthquakes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Duputel, Zacharie; Jiang, Junle; Jolivet, Romain; Simons, Mark; Rivera, Luis; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Liang, Cunren; Agram, Piyush; Owen, Susan; Ortega, Francisco; Minson, Sarah
2016-04-01
The South-American subduction zone is an exceptional natural laboratory for investigating the behavior of large faults over the earthquake cycle. It is also a playground to develop novel modeling techniques combining different datasets. Coastal Chile was impacted by two major earthquakes in the last two years: the 2015 M 8.3 Illapel earthquake in central Chile and the 2014 M 8.1 Iquique earthquake that ruptured the central portion of the 1877 seismic gap in northern Chile. To gain better understanding of the distribution of co-seismic slip for those two earthquakes, we derive joint kinematic finite fault models using a combination of static GPS offsets, radar interferograms, tsunami measurements, high-rate GPS waveforms and strong motion data. Our modeling approach follows a Bayesian formulation devoid of a priori smoothing thereby allowing us to maximize spatial resolution of the inferred family of models. The adopted approach also attempts to account for major sources of uncertainty in the Green's functions. The results reveal different rupture behaviors for the 2014 Iquique and 2015 Illapel earthquakes. The 2014 Iquique earthquake involved a sharp slip zone and did not rupture to the trench. The 2015 Illapel earthquake nucleated close to the coast and propagated toward the trench with significant slip apparently reaching the trench or at least very close to the trench. At the inherent resolution of our models, we also present the relationship of co-seismic models to the spatial distribution of foreshocks, aftershocks and fault coupling models.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Quigley, Mark C.; Hughes, Matthew W.; Bradley, Brendon A.; van Ballegooy, Sjoerd; Reid, Catherine; Morgenroth, Justin; Horton, Travis; Duffy, Brendan; Pettinga, Jarg R.
2016-03-01
Seismic shaking and tectonic deformation during strong earthquakes can trigger widespread environmental effects. The severity and extent of a given effect relates to the characteristics of the causative earthquake and the intrinsic properties of the affected media. Documentation of earthquake environmental effects in well-instrumented, historical earthquakes can enable seismologic triggering thresholds to be estimated across a spectrum of geologic, topographic and hydrologic site conditions, and implemented into seismic hazard assessments, geotechnical engineering designs, palaeoseismic interpretations, and forecasts of the impacts of future earthquakes. The 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES), including the moment magnitude (Mw) 7.1 Darfield earthquake and Mw 6.2, 6.0, 5.9, and 5.8 aftershocks, occurred on a suite of previously unidentified, primarily blind, active faults in the eastern South Island of New Zealand. The CES is one of Earth's best recorded historical earthquake sequences. The location of the CES proximal to and beneath a major urban centre enabled rapid and detailed collection of vast amounts of field, geospatial, geotechnical, hydrologic, biologic, and seismologic data, and allowed incremental and cumulative environmental responses to seismic forcing to be documented throughout a protracted earthquake sequence. The CES caused multiple instances of tectonic surface deformation (≥ 3 events), surface manifestations of liquefaction (≥ 11 events), lateral spreading (≥ 6 events), rockfall (≥ 6 events), cliff collapse (≥ 3 events), subsidence (≥ 4 events), and hydrological (10s of events) and biological shifts (≥ 3 events). The terrestrial area affected by strong shaking (e.g. peak ground acceleration (PGA) ≥ 0.1-0.3 g), and the maximum distances between earthquake rupture and environmental response (Rrup), both generally increased with increased earthquake Mw, but were also influenced by earthquake location and source
Intraplate triggered earthquakes: Observations and interpretation
Hough, S.E.; Seeber, L.; Armbruster, J.G.
2003-01-01
We present evidence that at least two of the three 1811-1812 New Madrid, central United States, mainshocks and the 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake triggered earthquakes at regional distances. In addition to previously published evidence for triggered earthquakes in the northern Kentucky/southern Ohio region in 1812, we present evidence suggesting that triggered events might have occurred in the Wabash Valley, to the south of the New Madrid Seismic Zone, and near Charleston, South Carolina. We also discuss evidence that earthquakes might have been triggered in northern Kentucky within seconds of the passage of surface waves from the 23 January 1812 New Madrid mainshock. After the 1886 Charleston earthquake, accounts suggest that triggered events occurred near Moodus, Connecticut, and in southern Indiana. Notwithstanding the uncertainty associated with analysis of historical accounts, there is evidence that at least three out of the four known Mw 7 earthquakes in the central and eastern United States seem to have triggered earthquakes at distances beyond the typically assumed aftershock zone of 1-2 mainshock fault lengths. We explore the possibility that remotely triggered earthquakes might be common in low-strain-rate regions. We suggest that in a low-strain-rate environment, permanent, nonelastic deformation might play a more important role in stress accumulation than it does in interplate crust. Using a simple model incorporating elastic and anelastic strain release, we show that, for realistic parameter values, faults in intraplate crust remain close to their failure stress for a longer part of the earthquake cycle than do faults in high-strain-rate regions. Our results further suggest that remotely triggered earthquakes occur preferentially in regions of recent and/or future seismic activity, which suggests that faults are at a critical stress state in only some areas. Remotely triggered earthquakes may thus serve as beacons that identify regions of
The 1995 November 22, Mw 7.2 Gulf of Elat earthquake cycle revisited
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Baer, Gidon; Funning, Gareth J.; Shamir, Gadi; Wright, Tim J.
2008-12-01
The 1995 November 22, Mw = 7.2 Nuweiba earthquake occurred along one of the left-stepping segments of the Dead Sea Transform (DST) in the Gulf of Elat (Aqaba). It was the largest earthquake along the DST in at least 160 yr. The main shock was preceded by earthquake swarms north and south of its NE-striking rupture since the early 1980s, and was followed by about 6 months of intense aftershock activity, concentrated mainly northwest and southeast of the main rupture. In this study we re-analyse ERS-1 and ERS-2 InSAR data for the period spanning the main shock and 5 post-seismic years. Because the entire rupture was under the Gulf water, surface observations related to the earthquake are limited to distances greater than 5 km away from the rupture zone. Coseismic interferograms were produced for the earthquake +1 week, +4 months and +6 months. Non-linear inversions were carried out for fault geometry and linear inversions were made for slip distribution using an ascending-descending 2-frame data set. The moment calculated from our best-fitting model is in agreement with the seismological moment, but trade-offs exist among several fault parameters. The present model upgrades previous InSAR models of the Nuweiba earthquake, and differs from recent teleseismic waveform inversion results mainly in terms of slip magnitude and distribution. The moment released by post-seismic deformation in the period of 6 months to 2 yr after the Nuweiba earthquake is about 15 per cent of the coseismic moment release. Our models suggest that this deformation can be represented by slip along the lower part of the coseismic rupture. Localised deformation along the Gulf shores NW of the main rupture in the first 6 months after the earthquake is correlated with surface displacements along active Gulf-parallel normal faults and possibly with shallow M > 3.9, D < 6 km aftershocks. The geodetic moment calculated by modelling this deformation is more than an order of magnitude larger than
Precursory changes in seismic velocity for the spectrum of earthquake failure modes
Scuderi, M.M.; Marone, C.; Tinti, E.; Di Stefano, G.; Collettini, C.
2016-01-01
Temporal changes in seismic velocity during the earthquake cycle have the potential to illuminate physical processes associated with fault weakening and connections between the range of fault slip behaviors including slow earthquakes, tremor and low frequency earthquakes1. Laboratory and theoretical studies predict changes in seismic velocity prior to earthquake failure2, however tectonic faults fail in a spectrum of modes and little is known about precursors for those modes3. Here we show that precursory changes of wave speed occur in laboratory faults for the complete spectrum of failure modes observed for tectonic faults. We systematically altered the stiffness of the loading system to reproduce the transition from slow to fast stick-slip and monitored ultrasonic wave speed during frictional sliding. We find systematic variations of elastic properties during the seismic cycle for both slow and fast earthquakes indicating similar physical mechanisms during rupture nucleation. Our data show that accelerated fault creep causes reduction of seismic velocity and elastic moduli during the preparatory phase preceding failure, which suggests that real time monitoring of active faults may be a means to detect earthquake precursors. PMID:27597879
Impact of earthquakes and their secondary environmental effects on public health
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mavroulis, Spyridon; Mavrouli, Maria; Lekkas, Efthymios; Tsakris, Athanassios
2017-04-01
Earthquakes are among the most impressive geological processes with destructive effects on humans, nature and infrastructures. Secondary earthquake environmental effects (EEE) are induced by the ground shaking and are classified into ground cracks, slope movements, dust clouds, liquefactions, hydrological anomalies, tsunamis, trees shaking and jumping stones. Infectious diseases (ID) emerging during the post-earthquake period are considered as secondary earthquake effects on public health. This study involved an extensive and systematic literature review of 121 research publications related to the public health impact of 28 earthquakes from 1980 to 2015 with moment magnitude (Mw) from 6.1 to 9.2 and their secondary EEE including landslides, liquefaction and tsunamis generated in various tectonic environments (extensional, transform, compressional) around the world (21 events in Asia, 5 in America and one each in Oceania and Europe). The inclusion criteria were the literature type comprising journal articles and official reports, the natural disaster type including earthquakes and their secondary EEE (landslides, liquefaction, tsunamis), the population type including humans and the outcome measures characterized by disease incidence increase. The potential post-earthquake ID are classified into 14 groups including respiratory (detected after 15 of 28 earthquakes, 53.57%), water-borne (15, 53.57%), skin (8, 28.57%), vector-borne (8, 28.57%) wound-related (6, 21.43%), blood-borne (4, 14.29%), pulmonary (4, 14.29%), fecal-oral (3, 10.71%), food-borne (3, 10.71%), fungal (3, 10.71%), parasitic (3, 10.71%), eye (1, 3.57%), mite-borne (1, 3.57%) and soil-borne (1, 3.57%) infections. Based on age and genre data available for 15 earthquakes, the most vulnerable population groups are males, young children (age ≤ 10 years) and adults (age ≥ 65 years). Cholera, pneumonia and tetanus are the deadliest post-earthquake ID. The risk factors leading not only to disease
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Johnson, C. W.; Burgmann, R.; Fu, Y.; Dutilleul, P.
2015-12-01
In California the accumulated winter snow pack in the Sierra Nevada, reservoirs and groundwater water storage in the Central Valley follow an annual periodic cycle and each contribute to the resulting surface deformation, which can be observed using GPS time series. The ongoing drought conditions in the western U.S. amplify the observed uplift signal as the Earth's crust responds to the mass changes associated with the water loss. The near surface hydrological mass loss can result in annual stress changes of ~1kPa at seismogenic depths. Similarly, small static stress perturbations have previously been associated with changes in earthquake activity. Periodicity analysis of earthquake catalog time series suggest that periods of 4-, 6-, 12-, and 14.24-months are statistically significant in regions of California, and provide documentation for the modulation of earthquake populations at periods of natural loading cycles. Knowledge of what governs the timing of earthquakes is essential to understanding the nature of the earthquake cycle. If small static stress changes influence the timing of earthquakes, then one could expect that events will occur more rapidly during periods of greater external load increases. To test this hypothesis we develop a loading model using GPS derived surface water storage for California and calculate the stress change at seismogenic depths for different faulting geometries. We then evaluate the degree of correlation between the stress models and the seismicity taking into consideration the variable amplitude of stress cycles, the orientation of transient load stress with respect to the background stress field, and the geometry of active faults revealed by focal mechanisms.
Metamorphic records of multiple seismic cycles during subduction
Hacker, Bradley R.; Seward, Gareth G. E.; Kelley, Chris S.
2018-01-01
Large earthquakes occur in rocks undergoing high-pressure/low-temperature metamorphism during subduction. Rhythmic major-element zoning in garnet is a common product of such metamorphism, and one that must record a fundamental subduction process. We argue that rhythmic major-element zoning in subduction zone garnets from the Franciscan Complex, California, developed in response to growth-dissolution cycles driven by pressure pulses. Using electron probe microanalysis and novel techniques in Raman and synchrotron Fourier transform infrared microspectroscopy, we demonstrate that at least four such pressure pulses, of magnitude 100–350 MPa, occurred over less than 300,000 years. These pressure magnitude and time scale constraints are most consistent with the garnet zoning having resulted from periodic overpressure development-dissipation cycles, related to pore-fluid pressure fluctuations linked to earthquake cycles. This study demonstrates that some metamorphic reactions can track individual earthquake cycles and thereby opens new avenues to the study of seismicity. PMID:29568800
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hutchinson, Lauren; Stead, Doug; Rosser, Nick
2017-04-01
Understanding the behaviour of rock slopes in response to earthquake shaking is instrumental in response and relief efforts following large earthquakes as well as to ongoing risk management in earthquake affected areas. Assessment of the effects of seismic shaking on rock slope kinematics requires detailed surveys of the pre- and post-earthquake condition of the slope; however, at present, there is a lack of high resolution monitoring data from pre- and post-earthquake to facilitate characterization of seismically induced slope damage and validate models used to back-analyze rock slope behaviour during and following earthquake shaking. Therefore, there is a need for additional research where pre- and post- earthquake monitoring data is available. This paper presents the results of a direct comparison between terrestrial laser scans (TLS) collected in 2014, the year prior to the 2015 earthquake sequence, with that collected 18 months after the earthquakes and two monsoon cycles. The two datasets were collected using Riegl VZ-1000 and VZ-4000 full waveform laser scanners with high resolution (c. 0.1 m point spacing as a minimum). The scans cover the full landslide affected slope from the toe to the crest. The slope is located in Sindhupalchok District, Central Nepal which experienced some of the highest co-seismic and post-seismic landslide intensities across Nepal due to the proximity to the epicenters (<20 km) of both of the main aftershocks on April 26, 2015 (M 6.7) and May 12, 2015 (M7.3). During the 2015 earthquakes and subsequent 2015 and 2016 monsoons, the slope experienced rockfall and debris flows which are evident in satellite imagery and field photographs. Fracturing of the rock mass associated with the seismic shaking is also evident at scales not accessible through satellite and field observations. The results of change detection between the TLS datasets with an emphasis on quantification of seismically-induced slope damage is presented. Patterns in the
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lu, Kunquan; Hou, Meiying; Jiang, Zehui; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Gang; Liu, Jixing
2018-03-01
We treat the earth crust and mantle as large scale discrete matters based on the principles of granular physics and existing experimental observations. Main outcomes are: A granular model of the structure and movement of the earth crust and mantle is established. The formation mechanism of the tectonic forces, which causes the earthquake, and a model of propagation for precursory information are proposed. Properties of the seismic precursory information and its relevance with the earthquake occurrence are illustrated, and principle of ways to detect the effective seismic precursor is elaborated. The mechanism of deep-focus earthquake is also explained by the jamming-unjamming transition of the granular flow. Some earthquake phenomena which were previously difficult to understand are explained, and the predictability of the earthquake is discussed. Due to the discrete nature of the earth crust and mantle, the continuum theory no longer applies during the quasi-static seismological process. In this paper, based on the principles of granular physics, we study the causes of earthquakes, earthquake precursors and predictions, and a new understanding, different from the traditional seismological viewpoint, is obtained.
The effects of the Yogyakarta earthquake at LUSI mud volcano, Indonesia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lupi, M.; Saenger, E. H.; Fuchs, F.; Miller, S. A.
2013-12-01
The M6.3 Yogyakarta earthquake shook Central Java on May 27th, 2006. Forty seven hours later, hot mud outburst at the surface near Sidoarjo, approximately 250 km from the earthquake epicentre. The mud eruption continued and originated LUSI, the youngest mud volcanic system on earth. Since the beginning of the eruption, approximately 30,000 people lost their homes and 13 people died due to the mud flooding. The causes that initiated the eruption are still debated and are based on different geological observations. The earthquake-triggering hypothesis is supported by the evidence that at the time of the earthquake ongoing drilling operations experienced a loss of the drilling mud downhole. In addition, the eruption of the mud began only 47 hours after the Yogyakarta earthquake and the mud reached the surface at different locations aligned along the Watukosek fault, a strike-slip fault upon which LUSI resides. Moreover, the Yogyakarta earthquake also affected the volcanic activity of Mt. Semeru, located as far as Lusi from the epicentre of the earthquake. However, the drilling-triggering hypothesis points out that the earthquake was too far from LUSI for inducing relevant stress changes at depth and highlight how upwelling fluids that reached the surface first emerged only 200 m far from the drilling rig that was operative at the time. Hence, was LUSI triggered by the earthquake or by drilling operations? We conducted a seismic wave propagation study on a geological model based on vp, vs, and density values for the different lithologies and seismic profiles of the crust beneath LUSI. Our analysis shows compelling evidence for the effects produced by the passage of seismic waves through the geological formations and highlights the importance of the overall geological structure that focused and reflected incoming seismic energy.
Hough, Susan E.
2013-01-01
The occurrence of three earthquakes with moment magnitude (Mw) greater than 8.8 and six earthquakes larger than Mw 8.5, since 2004, has raised interest in the long-term global rate of great earthquakes. Past studies have focused on the analysis of earthquakes since 1900, which roughly marks the start of the instrumental era in seismology. Before this time, the catalog is less complete and magnitude estimates are more uncertain. Yet substantial information is available for earthquakes before 1900, and the catalog of historical events is being used increasingly to improve hazard assessment. Here I consider the catalog of historical earthquakes and show that approximately half of all Mw ≥ 8.5 earthquakes are likely missing or underestimated in the 19th century. I further present a reconsideration of the felt effects of the 8 February 1843, Lesser Antilles earthquake, including a first thorough assessment of felt reports from the United States, and show it is an example of a known historical earthquake that was significantly larger than initially estimated. The results suggest that incorporation of best available catalogs of historical earthquakes will likely lead to a significant underestimation of seismic hazard and/or the maximum possible magnitude in many regions, including parts of the Caribbean.
Coseismic deformation observed with radar interferometry: Great earthquakes and atmospheric noise
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Scott, Chelsea Phipps
Spatially dense maps of coseismic deformation derived from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) datasets result in valuable constraints on earthquake processes. The recent increase in the quantity of observations of coseismic deformation facilitates the examination of signals in many tectonic environments associated with earthquakes of varying magnitude. Efforts to place robust constraints on the evolution of the crustal stress field following great earthquakes often rely on knowledge of the earthquake location, the fault geometry, and the distribution of slip along the fault plane. Well-characterized uncertainties and biases strengthen the quality of inferred earthquake source parameters, particularly when the associated ground displacement signals are near the detection limit. Well-preserved geomorphic records of earthquakes offer additional insight into the mechanical behavior of the shallow crust and the kinematics of plate boundary systems. Together, geodetic and geologic observations of crustal deformation offer insight into the processes that drive seismic cycle deformation over a range of timescales. In this thesis, I examine several challenges associated with the inversion of earthquake source parameters from SAR data. Variations in atmospheric humidity, temperature, and pressure at the timing of SAR acquisitions result in spatially correlated phase delays that are challenging to distinguish from signals of real ground deformation. I characterize the impact of atmospheric noise on inferred earthquake source parameters following elevation-dependent atmospheric corrections. I analyze the spatial and temporal variations in the statistics of atmospheric noise from both reanalysis weather models and InSAR data itself. Using statistics that reflect the spatial heterogeneity of atmospheric characteristics, I examine parameter errors for several synthetic cases of fault slip on a basin-bounding normal fault. I show a decrease in uncertainty in fault
Cumulative co-seismic fault damage and feedbacks on earthquake rupture
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mitchell, T. M.; Aben, F. M.; Ostermeijer, G.; Rockwell, T. K.; Doan, M. L.
2017-12-01
The importance of the damage zone in the faulting and earthquake process is widely recognized, but our understanding of how damage zones are created, what their properties are, and how they feed back into the seismic cycle, is remarkably poorly known. Firstly, damaged rocks have reduced elastic moduli, cohesion and yield strength, which can cause attenuation and potentially non-linear wave propagation effects during ruptures. Secondly, damaged fault rocks are generally more permeable than intact rocks, and hence play a key role in the migration of fluids in and around fault zones over the seismic cycle. Finally, the dynamic generation of damage as the earthquake propagates can itself influence the dynamics of rupture propagation, by increasing the amount of energy dissipation, decreasing the rupture velocity, modifying the size of the earthquake, changing the efficiency of weakening mechanisms such as thermal pressurisation of pore fluids, and even generating seismic waves itself . All of these effects imply that a feedback exists between the damage imparted immediately after rupture propagation, at the early stages of fault slip, and the effects of that damage on subsequent ruptures dynamics. In recent years, much debate has been sparked by the identification of so-called `pulverized rocks' described on various crustal-scale faults, a type of intensely damaged fault rock which has undergone minimal shear strain, and the occurrence of which has been linked to damage induced by transient high strain-rate stress perturbations during earthquake rupture. Damage induced by such transient stresses, whether compressional or tensional, likely constitute heterogeneous modulations of the remote stresses that will impart significant changes on the strength, elastic and fluid flow properties of a fault zone immediately after rupture propagation, at the early stage of fault slip. In this contribution, we will demonstrate laboratory and field examples of two dynamic mechanisms
Hovsgol earthquake 5 December 2014, M W = 4.9: seismic and acoustic effects
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dobrynina, Anna A.; Sankov, Vladimir A.; Tcydypova, Larisa R.; German, Victor I.; Chechelnitsky, Vladimir V.; Ulzibat, Munkhuu
2018-03-01
A moderate shallow earthquake occurred on 5 December 2014 ( M W = 4.9) in the north of Lake Hovsgol (northern Mongolia). The infrasonic signal with duration 140 s was recorded for this earthquake by the "Tory" infrasound array (Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science, Russia). Source parameters of the earthquake (seismic moment, geometrical sizes, displacement amplitudes in the focus) were determined using spectral analysis of direct body P and S waves. The spectral analysis of seismograms and amplitude variations of the surface waves allows to determine the effect of the propagation of the rupture in the earthquake focus, the azimuth of the rupture propagation direction and the velocity of displacement in the earthquake focus. The results of modelling of the surface displacements caused by the Hovsgol earthquake and high effective velocity of propagation of infrasound signal ( 625 m/s) indicate that its occurrence is not caused by the downward movement of the Earth's surface in the epicentral region but by the effect of the secondary source. The position of the secondary source of infrasound signal is defined on the northern slopes of the Khamar-Daban ridge according to the data on the azimuth and time of arrival of acoustic wave at the Tory station. The interaction of surface waves with the regional topography is proposed as the most probable mechanism of formation of the infrasound signal.
Control strategy to limit duty cycle impact of earthquakes on the LIGO gravitational-wave detectors
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Biscans, S.; Warner, J.; Mittleman, R.; Buchanan, C.; Coughlin, M.; Evans, M.; Gabbard, H.; Harms, J.; Lantz, B.; Mukund, N.; Pele, A.; Pezerat, C.; Picart, P.; Radkins, H.; Shaffer, T.
2018-03-01
Advanced gravitational-wave detectors such as the laser interferometer gravitational-wave observatories (LIGO) require an unprecedented level of isolation from the ground. When in operation, they measure motion of less than 10‑19 m. Strong teleseismic events like earthquakes disrupt the proper functioning of the detectors, and result in a loss of data. An earthquake early-warning system, as well as a prediction model, have been developed to understand the impact of earthquakes on LIGO. This paper describes a control strategy to use this early-warning system to reduce the LIGO downtime by ∼30%. It also presents a plan to implement this new earthquake configuration in the LIGO automation system.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Salditch, L.; Brooks, E. M.; Stein, S.; Spencer, B. D.; Campbell, M. R.
2017-12-01
A challenge for earthquake hazard assessment is that geologic records often show large earthquakes occurring in temporal clusters separated by periods of quiescence. For example, in Cascadia, a paleoseismic record going back 10,000 years shows four to five clusters separated by approximately 1,000 year gaps. If we are still in the cluster that began 1700 years ago, a large earthquake is likely to happen soon. If the cluster has ended, a great earthquake is less likely. For a Gaussian distribution of recurrence times, the probability of an earthquake in the next 50 years is six times larger if we are still in the most recent cluster. Earthquake hazard assessments typically employ one of two recurrence models, neither of which directly incorporate clustering. In one, earthquake probability is time-independent and modeled as Poissonian, so an earthquake is equally likely at any time. The fault has no "memory" because when a prior earthquake occurred has no bearing on when the next will occur. The other common model is a time-dependent earthquake cycle in which the probability of an earthquake increases with time until one happens, after which the probability resets to zero. Because the probability is reset after each earthquake, the fault "remembers" only the last earthquake. This approach can be used with any assumed probability density function for recurrence times. We propose an alternative, Long-Term Fault Memory (LTFM), a modified earthquake cycle model where the probability of an earthquake increases with time until one happens, after which it decreases, but not necessarily to zero. Hence the probability of the next earthquake depends on the fault's history over multiple cycles, giving "long-term memory". Physically, this reflects an earthquake releasing only part of the elastic strain stored on the fault. We use the LTFM to simulate earthquake clustering along the San Andreas Fault and Cascadia. In some portions of the simulated earthquake history, events would
Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes.
Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro
2016-07-15
Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Large-Scale Earthquake Countermeasures Act and the Earthquake Prediction Council in Japan
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Rikitake, T.
1979-08-07
The Large-Scale Earthquake Countermeasures Act was enacted in Japan in December 1978. This act aims at mitigating earthquake hazards by designating an area to be an area under intensified measures against earthquake disaster, such designation being based on long-term earthquake prediction information, and by issuing an earthquake warnings statement based on imminent prediction information, when possible. In an emergency case as defined by the law, the prime minister will be empowered to take various actions which cannot be taken at ordinary times. For instance, he may ask the Self-Defense Force to come into the earthquake-threatened area before the earthquake occurrence.more » A Prediction Council has been formed in order to evaluate premonitory effects that might be observed over the Tokai area, which was designated an area under intensified measures against earthquake disaster some time in June 1979. An extremely dense observation network has been constructed over the area.« less
Do weak global stresses synchronize earthquakes?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bendick, R.; Bilham, R.
2017-08-01
Insofar as slip in an earthquake is related to the strain accumulated near a fault since a previous earthquake, and this process repeats many times, the earthquake cycle approximates an autonomous oscillator. Its asymmetric slow accumulation of strain and rapid release is quite unlike the harmonic motion of a pendulum and need not be time predictable, but still resembles a class of repeating systems known as integrate-and-fire oscillators, whose behavior has been shown to demonstrate a remarkable ability to synchronize to either external or self-organized forcing. Given sufficient time and even very weak physical coupling, the phases of sets of such oscillators, with similar though not necessarily identical period, approach each other. Topological and time series analyses presented here demonstrate that earthquakes worldwide show evidence of such synchronization. Though numerous studies demonstrate that the composite temporal distribution of major earthquakes in the instrumental record is indistinguishable from random, the additional consideration of event renewal interval serves to identify earthquake groupings suggestive of synchronization that are absent in synthetic catalogs. We envisage the weak forces responsible for clustering originate from lithospheric strain induced by seismicity itself, by finite strains over teleseismic distances, or by other sources of lithospheric loading such as Earth's variable rotation. For example, quasi-periodic maxima in rotational deceleration are accompanied by increased global seismicity at multidecadal intervals.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kaneda, Y.; Kawaguchi, K.; Araki, E.; Matsumoto, H.; Nakamura, T.; Nakano, M.; Kamiya, S.; Ariyoshi, K.; Baba, T.; Ohori, M.; Hori, T.; Takahashi, N.; Kaneko, S.; Donet Research; Development Group
2010-12-01
Yoshiyuki Kaneda Katsuyoshi Kawaguchi*, Eiichiro Araki*, Shou Kaneko*, Hiroyuki Matsumoto*, Takeshi Nakamura*, Masaru Nakano*, Shinichirou Kamiya*, Keisuke Ariyoshi*, Toshitaka Baba*, Michihiro Ohori*, Narumi Takakahashi*, and Takane Hori** * Earthquake and Tsunami Research Project for Disaster Prevention, Leading Project , Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) **Institute for Research on Earth Evolution, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) DONET (Dense Ocean Floor Network for Earthquakes and Tsunamis) is the real time monitoring system of the Tonankai seismogenic zones around the Nankai trough southwestern Japan. We were starting to develop DONET to perform real time monitoring of crustal activities over there and the advanced early warning system. DONET will provide important and useful data to understand the Nankai trough maga thrust earthquake seismogenic zones and to improve the accuracy of the earthquake recurrence cycle simulation. Details of DONET concept are as follows. 1) Redundancy, Extendable function and advanced maintenance system using the looped cable system, junction boxes and the ROV/AUV. DONET has 20 observatories and incorporated in a double land stations concept. Also, we are developed ROV for the 10km cable extensions and heavy weight operations. 2) Multi kinds of sensors to observe broad band phenomena such as long period tremors, very low frequency earthquakes and strong motions of mega thrust earthquakes over M8: Therefore, sensors such as a broadband seismometer, an accelerometer, a hydrophone, a precise pressure gauge, a differential pressure gauge and a thermometer are equipped with each observatory in DONET. 3) For speedy detections, evaluations and notifications of earthquakes and tsunamis: DONET system will be deployed around the Tonankai seismogenic zone. 4) Provide data of ocean floor crustal deformations derived from pressure sensors: Simultaneously, the development of data
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Oommen, Thomas; Rebbapragada, Umaa; Cerminaro, Daniel
2012-01-01
In this study, we perform a case study on imagery from the Haiti earthquake that evaluates a novel object-based approach for characterizing earthquake induced surface effects of liquefaction against a traditional pixel based change technique. Our technique, which combines object-oriented change detection with discriminant/categorical functions, shows the power of distinguishing earthquake-induced surface effects from changes in buildings using the object properties concavity, convexity, orthogonality and rectangularity. Our results suggest that object-based analysis holds promise in automatically extracting earthquake-induced damages from high-resolution aerial/satellite imagery.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Montecino, Henry D.; de Freitas, Silvio R. C.; Báez, Juan C.; Ferreira, Vagner G.
2017-12-01
The Maule Earthquake (Mw = 8.8) of February 27, 2010 is among the strongest earthquakes that occurred in recent years throughout the world. The crustal deformation caused by this earthquake has been widely studied using GNSS, InSAR and gravity observations. However, there is currently no estimation of the possible vertical deformations produced by co-seismic and post-seismic effects in segments of the Chilean Vertical Reference Frame (CHVRF). In this paper, we present an estimation of co-seismic and post-seismic deformations on the CHVRF using an indirect approach based on GNSS and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data as well as by applying a trajectory model. GNSS time series were used from 10 continuous GNSS stations in the period from 2007 to 2015, as well as 28 GNSS temporary stations realized before and after the earthquake, and 34 vertical deformation vectors in the region most affected by the earthquake. We considered a set of 147 monthly solutions of spherical harmonic gravity field that were expanded up to degree, as well as order 96 of the GRACE mission provided by Center for Space Research, University of Texas at Austin (UT-CSR) process center. The magnitude of vertical deformation was estimated in part of the Chilean vertical network due to the co-seismic and post-seismic effects. Once we evaluated the hydrological effect, natural and artificial jumps, and the effect of glacial isostatic adjustment in GNSS and GRACE time series, the maximum values associated to co- and post-seismic deformations on orthometric height were found to be ∼-34 cm and 5 cm, respectively. Overall, the deformation caused by the Maule earthquake in orthometric heights is almost entirely explained by the variation in the ellipsoidal heights (over 85% in co-seismic jump); however, coseismic jump in the geoid reached -3.3 mm, and could influence the maintenance of a modern vertical reference network in a medium to long term. We evaluated the consistency for a
Stein, R.S.; King, G.C.P.; Rundle, J.B.
1988-01-01
A strong test of our understanding of the earthquake cycle is the ability to reproduce extant faultbounded geological structures, such as basins and ranges, which are built by repeated cycles of deformation. Three examples are considered for which the structure and fault geometry are well known: the White Wolf reverse fault in California, site of the 1952 Kern County M=7.3 earthquake, the Lost River normal fault in Idaho, site of the 1983 Borah Peak M=7.0 earthquake, and the Cricket Mountain normal fault in Utah, site of Quaternary slip events. Basin stratigraphy and seismic reflection records are used to profile the structure, and coseismic deformation measured by leveling surveys is used to estimate the fault geometry. To reproduce these structures, we add the deformation associated with the earthquake cycle (the coseismic slip and postseismic relaxation) to the flexure caused by the observed sediment load, treating the crust as a thin elastic plate overlying a fluid substrate. -from Authors
Earthquake models using rate and state friction and fast multipoles
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tullis, T.
2003-04-01
The most realistic current earthquake models employ laboratory-derived non-linear constitutive laws. These are the rate and state friction laws having both a non-linear viscous or direct effect and an evolution effect in which frictional resistance depends on time of stationary contact and has a memory of past slip velocity that fades with slip. The frictional resistance depends on the log of the slip velocity as well as the log of stationary hold time, and the fading memory involves an approximately exponential decay with slip. Due to the nonlinearly of these laws, analytical earthquake models are not attainable and numerical models are needed. The situation is even more difficult if true dynamic models are sought that deal with inertial forces and slip velocities on the order of 1 m/s as are observed during dynamic earthquake slip. Additional difficulties that exist if the dynamic slip phase of earthquakes is modeled arise from two sources. First, many physical processes might operate during dynamic slip, but they are only poorly understood, the relative importance of the processes is unknown, and the processes are even more nonlinear than those described by the current rate and state laws. Constitutive laws describing such behaviors are still being developed. Second, treatment of inertial forces and the influence that dynamic stresses from elastic waves may have on slip on the fault requires keeping track of the history of slip on remote parts of the fault as far into the past as it takes waves to travel from there. This places even more stringent requirements on computer time. Challenges for numerical modeling of complete earthquake cycles are that both time steps and mesh sizes must be small. Time steps must be milliseconds during dynamic slip, and yet models must represent earthquake cycles 100 years or more in length; methods using adaptive step sizes are essential. Element dimensions need to be on the order of meters, both to approximate continuum behavior
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bossu, R.; Lefebvre, S.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Roussel, F.
2012-12-01
This paper presents an after the fact study of the Virginia earthquake of 2011 August 23 using only the traffic observed on the EMSC website within minutes of its occurrence. Although the EMSC real time information services remain poorly identified in the US, a traffic surge was observed immediately after the earthquake's occurrence. Such surges, known as flashcrowd and commonly observed on our website after felt events within the Euro-Med region are caused by eyewitnesses looking for information about the shaking they have just felt. EMSC developed an approach named flashsourcing to map the felt area, and in some circumstances, the regions affected by severe damage or network disruption. The felt area is mapped simply by locating the Internet Protocol (IP) addresses of the visitors to the website during these surges while the existence of network disruption is detected by the instantaneous loss at the time of earthquake's occurrence of existing Internet sessions originating from the impacted area. For the Virginia earthquake, which was felt at large distances, the effects of the waves propagation are clearly observed. We show that the visits to our website are triggered by the P waves arrival: the first visitors from a given locality reach our website 90s after their location was shaken by the P waves. From a processing point of view, eyewitnesses can then be considered as ground motion detectors. By doing so, the epicentral location is determined through a simple dedicated location algorithm within 2 min of the earthquake's occurrence and 30 km accuracy. The magnitude can be estimated in similar time frame by using existing empirical relationships between the surface of the felt area and the magnitude. Concerning the effects of the earthquake, we check whether one can discriminate localities affected by strong shaking from web traffic analysis. This is actually the case. Localities affected by strong level of shaking exhibit higher ratio of visitors to the number
Geotechnical effects of the 2015 magnitude 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake and aftershocks
Moss, Robb E. S.; Thompson, Eric M.; Kieffer, D Scott; Tiwari, Binod; Hashash, Youssef M A; Acharya, Indra; Adhikari, Basanta; Asimaki, Domniki; Clahan, Kevin B.; Collins, Brian D.; Dahal, Sachindra; Jibson, Randall W.; Khadka, Diwakar; Macdonald, Amy; Madugo, Chris L M; Mason, H Benjamin; Pehlivan, Menzer; Rayamajhi, Deepak; Uprety, Sital
2015-01-01
This article summarizes the geotechnical effects of the 25 April 2015 M 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake and aftershocks, as documented by a reconnaissance team that undertook a broad engineering and scientific assessment of the damage and collected perishable data for future analysis. Brief descriptions are provided of ground shaking, surface fault rupture, landsliding, soil failure, and infrastructure performance. The goal of this reconnaissance effort, led by Geotechnical Extreme Events Reconnaissance, is to learn from earthquakes and mitigate hazards in future earthquakes.
Earthquake Clustering on Normal Faults: Insight from Rate-and-State Friction Models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Biemiller, J.; Lavier, L. L.; Wallace, L.
2016-12-01
Temporal variations in slip rate on normal faults have been recognized in Hawaii and the Basin and Range. The recurrence intervals of these slip transients range from 2 years on the flanks of Kilauea, Hawaii to 10 kyr timescale earthquake clustering on the Wasatch Fault in the eastern Basin and Range. In addition to these longer recurrence transients in the Basin and Range, recent GPS results there also suggest elevated deformation rate events with recurrence intervals of 2-4 years. These observations suggest that some active normal fault systems are dominated by slip behaviors that fall between the end-members of steady aseismic creep and periodic, purely elastic, seismic-cycle deformation. Recent studies propose that 200 year to 50 kyr timescale supercycles may control the magnitude, timing, and frequency of seismic-cycle earthquakes in subduction zones, where aseismic slip transients are known to play an important role in total deformation. Seismic cycle deformation of normal faults may be similarly influenced by its timing within long-period supercycles. We present numerical models (based on rate-and-state friction) of normal faults such as the Wasatch Fault showing that realistic rate-and-state parameter distributions along an extensional fault zone can give rise to earthquake clusters separated by 500 yr - 5 kyr periods of aseismic slip transients on some portions of the fault. The recurrence intervals of events within each earthquake cluster range from 200 to 400 years. Our results support the importance of stress and strain history as controls on a normal fault's present and future slip behavior and on the characteristics of its current seismic cycle. These models suggest that long- to medium-term fault slip history may influence the temporal distribution, recurrence interval, and earthquake magnitudes for a given normal fault segment.
Impact of earthquakes on sex ratio at birth: Eastern Marmara earthquakes
Doğer, Emek; Çakıroğlu, Yiğit; Köpük, Şule Yıldırım; Ceylan, Yasin; Şimşek, Hayal Uzelli; Çalışkan, Eray
2013-01-01
Objective: Previous reports suggest that maternal exposure to acute stress related to earthquakes affects the sex ratio at birth. Our aim was to examine the change in sex ratio at birth after Eastern Marmara earthquake disasters. Material and Methods: This study was performed using the official birth statistics from January 1997 to December 2002 – before and after 17 August 1999, the date of the Golcuk Earthquake – supplied from the Turkey Statistics Institute. The secondary sex ratio was expressed as the male proportion at birth, and the ratio of both affected and unaffected areas were calculated and compared on a monthly basis using data from gender with using the Chi-square test. Results: We observed significant decreases in the secondary sex ratio in the 4th and 8th months following an earthquake in the affected region compared to the unaffected region (p= 0.001 and p= 0.024). In the earthquake region, the decrease observed in the secondary sex ratio during the 8th month after an earthquake was specific to the period after the earthquake. Conclusion: Our study indicated a significant reduction in the secondary sex ratio after an earthquake. With these findings, events that cause sudden intense stress such as earthquakes can have an effect on the sex ratio at birth. PMID:24592082
Triple effect absorption cycles
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Erickson, D.C.; Potnis, S.V.; Tang, J.
1996-12-31
Triple effect absorption chillers can achieve 50% COP improvement over double-effect systems. However, to translate this potential into cost-effective hardware, the most promising embodiments must be identified. In this study, 12 generic triple effect cycles and 76 possible hermetic loop arrangements of those 12 generic cycles were identified. The generic triple effect cycles were screened based on their pressure and solubility field requirements, generic COPs, risk involved in the component design, and number of components in a high corrosive environment. This screening identified four promising arrangements: Alkitrate Topping cycle, Pressure Staged Envelope cycle, High Pressure Overlap cycle, and Dual Loopmore » cycle. All of these arrangements have a very high COP ({approximately} 1.8), however the development risk and cost involved is different for each arrangement. Therefore, the selection of a particular arrangement will depend upon the specific situation under consideration.« less
Lacustrine Paleoseismology Reveals Earthquake Segmentation of the Alpine Fault, New Zealand
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Howarth, J. D.; Fitzsimons, S.; Norris, R.; Langridge, R. M.
2013-12-01
Transform plate boundary faults accommodate high rates of strain and are capable of producing large (Mw>7.0) to great (Mw>8.0) earthquakes that pose significant seismic hazard. The Alpine Fault in New Zealand is one of the longest, straightest and fastest slipping plate boundary transform faults on Earth and produces earthquakes at quasi-periodic intervals. Theoretically, the fault's linearity, isolation from other faults and quasi-periodicity should promote the generation of earthquakes that have similar magnitudes over multiple seismic cycles. We test the hypothesis that the Alpine Fault produces quasi-regular earthquakes that contiguously rupture the southern and central fault segments, using a novel lacustrine paleoseismic proxy to reconstruct spatial and temporal patterns of fault rupture over the last 2000 years. In three lakes located close to the Alpine Fault the last nine earthquakes are recorded as megaturbidites formed by co-seismic subaqueous slope failures, which occur when shaking exceeds Modified Mercalli (MM) VII. When the fault ruptures adjacent to a lake the co-seismic megaturbidites are overlain by stacks of turbidites produced by enhanced fluvial sediment fluxes from earthquake-induced landslides. The turbidite stacks record shaking intensities of MM>IX in the lake catchments and can be used to map the spatial location of fault rupture. The lake records can be dated precisely, facilitating meaningful along strike correlations, and the continuous records allow earthquakes closely spaced in time on adjacent fault segments to be distinguished. The results show that while multi-segment ruptures of the Alpine Fault occurred during most seismic cycles, sequential earthquakes on adjacent segments and single segment ruptures have also occurred. The complexity of the fault rupture pattern suggests that the subtle variations in fault geometry, sense of motion and slip rate that have been used to distinguish the central and southern segments of the Alpine
Recurrent slow slip event likely hastened by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake
Hirose, Hitoshi; Kimura, Hisanori; Enescu, Bogdan; Aoi, Shin
2012-01-01
Slow slip events (SSEs) are another mode of fault deformation than the fast faulting of regular earthquakes. Such transient episodes have been observed at plate boundaries in a number of subduction zones around the globe. The SSEs near the Boso Peninsula, central Japan, are among the most documented SSEs, with the longest repeating history, of almost 30 y, and have a recurrence interval of 5 to 7 y. A remarkable characteristic of the slow slip episodes is the accompanying earthquake swarm activity. Our stable, long-term seismic observations enable us to detect SSEs using the recorded earthquake catalog, by considering an earthquake swarm as a proxy for a slow slip episode. Six recurrent episodes are identified in this way since 1982. The average duration of the SSE interoccurrence interval is 68 mo; however, there are significant fluctuations from this mean. While a regular cycle can be explained using a simple physical model, the mechanisms that are responsible for the observed fluctuations are poorly known. Here we show that the latest SSE in the Boso Peninsula was likely hastened by the stress transfer from the March 11, 2011 great Tohoku earthquake. Moreover, a similar mechanism accounts for the delay of an SSE in 1990 by a nearby earthquake. The low stress buildups and drops during the SSE cycle can explain the strong sensitivity of these SSEs to stress transfer from external sources. PMID:22949688
Rubinstein, Justin L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Chen, Kate Huihsuan; Uchida, Naoki
2012-01-01
The behavior of individual events in repeating earthquake sequences in California, Taiwan and Japan is better predicted by a model with fixed inter-event time or fixed slip than it is by the time- and slip-predictable models for earthquake occurrence. Given that repeating earthquakes are highly regular in both inter-event time and seismic moment, the time- and slip-predictable models seem ideally suited to explain their behavior. Taken together with evidence from the companion manuscript that shows similar results for laboratory experiments we conclude that the short-term predictions of the time- and slip-predictable models should be rejected in favor of earthquake models that assume either fixed slip or fixed recurrence interval. This implies that the elastic rebound model underlying the time- and slip-predictable models offers no additional value in describing earthquake behavior in an event-to-event sense, but its value in a long-term sense cannot be determined. These models likely fail because they rely on assumptions that oversimplify the earthquake cycle. We note that the time and slip of these events is predicted quite well by fixed slip and fixed recurrence models, so in some sense they are time- and slip-predictable. While fixed recurrence and slip models better predict repeating earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models, we observe a correlation between slip and the preceding recurrence time for many repeating earthquake sequences in Parkfield, California. This correlation is not found in other regions, and the sequences with the correlative slip-predictable behavior are not distinguishable from nearby earthquake sequences that do not exhibit this behavior.
The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards
Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.
2017-04-24
The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks. The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of
33 CFR 222.4 - Reporting earthquake effects.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR
2012-07-01
.... This indicates the possibility that earthquake induced loads may not have been adequately considered in... misalignment of hydraulic control structures or gates. Induced dynamic loading on earth dams may result in loss... area where the earthquake is felt but causes no or insignificant damage (Modified Mercalli Intensity VI...
33 CFR 222.4 - Reporting earthquake effects.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR
2013-07-01
.... This indicates the possibility that earthquake induced loads may not have been adequately considered in... misalignment of hydraulic control structures or gates. Induced dynamic loading on earth dams may result in loss... area where the earthquake is felt but causes no or insignificant damage (Modified Mercalli Intensity VI...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bhloscaidh, Mairead Nic; McCloskey, John; Pelling, Mark; Naylor, Mark
2013-04-01
Until expensive engineering solutions become more universally available, the objective targeting of resources at demonstrably effective, low-cost interventions might help reverse the trend of increasing mortality in earthquakes. Death tolls in earthquakes are the result of complex interactions between physical effects, such as the exposure of the population to strong shaking, and the resilience of the exposed population along with supporting critical infrastructures and institutions. The identification of socio-economic factors that contribute to earthquake mortality is crucial to identifying and developing successful risk management strategies. Here we develop a quantitative methodology more objectively to assess the ability of communities to withstand earthquake shaking, focusing on, in particular, those cases where risk management performance appears to exceed or fall below expectations based on economic status. Using only published estimates of the shaking intensity and population exposure for each earthquake, data that is available for earthquakes in countries irrespective of their level of economic development, we develop a model for mortality based on the contribution of population exposure to shaking only. This represents an attempt to remove, as far as possible, the physical causes of mortality from our analysis (where we consider earthquake engineering to reduce building collapse among the socio-economic influences). The systematic part of the variance with respect to this model can therefore be expected to be dominated by socio-economic factors. We find, as expected, that this purely physical analysis partitions countries in terms of basic socio-economic measures, for example GDP, focusing analytical attention on the power of economic measures to explain variance in observed distributions of earthquake risk. The model allows the definition of a vulnerability index which, although broadly it demonstrates the expected income-dependence of vulnerability to
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Penserini, Brian D.; Roering, Joshua J.; Streig, Ashley
2017-04-01
In unglaciated steeplands, valley reaches dominated by debris flow scour and incision set landscape form as they often account for > 80% of valley network length and relief. While hillslope and fluvial process models have frequently been combined with digital topography to develop morphologic proxies for erosion rate and drainage divide migration, debris-flow-dominated networks, despite their ubiquity, have not been exploited for this purpose. Here, we applied an empirical function that describes how slope-area data systematically deviate from so-called fluvial power-law behavior at small drainage areas. Using airborne LiDAR data for 83 small ( 1 km2) catchments in the western Oregon Coast Range, we quantified variation in model parameters and observed that the curvature of the power-law scaling deviation varies with catchment-averaged erosion rate estimated from cosmogenic nuclides in stream sediments. Given consistent climate and lithology across our study area and assuming steady erosion, we used this calibrated denudation-morphology relationship to map spatial patterns of long-term uplift for our study catchments. By combining our predicted pattern of long-term uplift rate with paleoseismic and geodetic (tide gauge, GPS, and leveling) data, we estimated the spatial distribution of coseismic subsidence experienced during megathrust earthquakes along the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Our estimates of coseismic subsidence near the coast (0.4 to 0.7 m for earthquake recurrence intervals of 300 to 500 years) agree with field measurements from numerous stratigraphic studies. Our results also demonstrate that coseismic subsidence decreases inland to negligible values > 25 km from the coast, reflecting the diminishing influence of the earthquake deformation cycle on vertical changes of the interior coastal ranges. More generally, our results demonstrate that debris flow valley networks serve as highly localized, yet broadly distributed indicators of erosion (and rock
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Moyer, P. A.; Boettcher, M. S.; McGuire, J. J.; Collins, J. A.
2017-12-01
During the last five seismic cycles on Gofar transform fault on the East Pacific Rise, the largest earthquakes (6.0 ≤ Mw ≤ 6.2) have repeatedly ruptured the same fault segment (rupture asperity), while intervening fault segments host swarms of microearthquakes. Previous studies on Gofar have shown that these segments of low (≤10%) seismic coupling contain diffuse zones of seismicity and P-wave velocity reduction compared with the rupture asperity; suggesting heterogeneous fault properties control earthquake behavior. We investigate the role systematic differences in material properties have on earthquake rupture along Gofar using waveforms from ocean bottom seismometers that recorded the end of the 2008 Mw 6.0 seismic cycle.We determine stress drop for 117 earthquakes (2.4 ≤ Mw ≤ 4.2) that occurred in and between rupture asperities from corner frequency derived using an empirical Green's function spectral ratio method and seismic moment obtained by fitting the omega-square source model to the low frequency amplitude of earthquake spectra. We find stress drops from 0.03 to 2.7 MPa with significant spatial variation, including 2 times higher average stress drop in the rupture asperity compared to fault segments with low seismic coupling. We interpret an inverse correlation between stress drop and P-wave velocity reduction as the effect of damage on earthquake rupture. Earthquakes with higher stress drops occur in more intact crust of the rupture asperity, while earthquakes with lower stress drops occur in regions of low seismic coupling and reflect lower strength, highly fractured fault zone material. We also observe a temporal control on stress drop consistent with log-time healing following the Mw 6.0 mainshock, suggesting a decrease in stress drop as a result of fault zone damage caused by the large earthquake.
Ionospheric Effects Prior to the Napa Earthquake of August 24, 2014
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kelley, M. C.; Swartz, W. E.; Komjathy, A.; Mannucci, A. J.; Shume, E. B.; Heki, K.; Fraser-Smith, A. C.; McCready, M. A.
2014-12-01
Recently, evidence that the ionosphere reacts in a reliable, reproducible manner before major earthquakes has been increasing. Fraser-Smith (1990) reported ULF magnetic field fluctuations prior to the Loma Prieta quake. Although not an ionospheric measurement, such magnetic fields before a quake are part of our explanation for the ionospheric effect. Heki (2011) and Heki and Enomoto (2013) reported in great detail the devastating March 11, 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in which numerous GPS satellite/ground-station pairs showed apparent changes, both increases and decreases, starting 40 minutes before the event. We say "apparent" since our theory is that electric fields associated with stresses before an earthquake map through the ionosphere at the speed of light and raise or lower the main ionosphere. Both effects have been detected. Heki's results for four quakes exceeding M = 7 are shown in Figure 4 of Heki (2011). Based on the inserted curve of Heki's Figure 4 relating the size of the ionospheric effect to the quake's magnitude, we were not optimistic about detecting an effect for the 6.0 Napa quake. However, it occurred at night, when the well-known shielding effect of the ionospheric D and lower E regions for EM fields becomes very small. When this special session with a later abstract deadline was announced, JPL researchers were asked to examine GPS data from California stations. Based on their data, the plot shown (left panel) combined with a similar plot for the Tohoku-Oki earthquake (right panel, based on Heki's data) was produced. Both panels show fluctuations of STEC (Slant Total Electron Content) before the quake times (indicated by asterisks showing the positions of ionospheric penetration points (IPP) at the respective quake times). Although alternative explanations for the TEC fluctuations cannot be ruled out entirely, these results suggest that a patent-pending system able to predict an earthquake some 30 minutes before an event by using satellites
... Search Term(s): Main Content Home Be Informed Earthquakes Earthquakes An earthquake is the sudden, rapid shaking of the earth, ... by the breaking and shifting of underground rock. Earthquakes can cause buildings to collapse and cause heavy ...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Haddad, David Elias
Earth's topographic surface forms an interface across which the geodynamic and geomorphic engines interact. This interaction is best observed along crustal margins where topography is created by active faulting and sculpted by geomorphic processes. Crustal deformation manifests as earthquakes at centennial to millennial timescales. Given that nearly half of Earth's human population lives along active fault zones, a quantitative understanding of the mechanics of earthquakes and faulting is necessary to build accurate earthquake forecasts. My research relies on the quantitative documentation of the geomorphic expression of large earthquakes and the physical processes that control their spatiotemporal distributions. The first part of my research uses high-resolution topographic lidar data to quantitatively document the geomorphic expression of historic and prehistoric large earthquakes. Lidar data allow for enhanced visualization and reconstruction of structures and stratigraphy exposed by paleoseismic trenches. Lidar surveys of fault scarps formed by the 1992 Landers earthquake document the centimeter-scale erosional landforms developed by repeated winter storm-driven erosion. The second part of my research employs a quasi-static numerical earthquake simulator to explore the effects of fault roughness, friction, and structural complexities on earthquake-generated deformation. My experiments show that fault roughness plays a critical role in determining fault-to-fault rupture jumping probabilities. These results corroborate the accepted 3-5 km rupture jumping distance for smooth faults. However, my simulations show that the rupture jumping threshold distance is highly variable for rough faults due to heterogeneous elastic strain energies. Furthermore, fault roughness controls spatiotemporal variations in slip rates such that rough faults exhibit lower slip rates relative to their smooth counterparts. The central implication of these results lies in guiding the
Pre-Earthquake Unipolar Electromagnetic Pulses
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Scoville, J.; Freund, F.
2013-12-01
Transient ultralow frequency (ULF) electromagnetic (EM) emissions have been reported to occur before earthquakes [1,2]. They suggest powerful transient electric currents flowing deep in the crust [3,4]. Prior to the M=5.4 Alum Rock earthquake of Oct. 21, 2007 in California a QuakeFinder triaxial search-coil magnetometer located about 2 km from the epicenter recorded unusual unipolar pulses with the approximate shape of a half-cycle of a sine wave, reaching amplitudes up to 30 nT. The number of these unipolar pulses increased as the day of the earthquake approached. These pulses clearly originated around the hypocenter. The same pulses have since been recorded prior to several medium to moderate earthquakes in Peru, where they have been used to triangulate the location of the impending earthquakes [5]. To understand the mechanism of the unipolar pulses, we first have to address the question how single current pulses can be generated deep in the Earth's crust. Key to this question appears to be the break-up of peroxy defects in the rocks in the hypocenter as a result of the increase in tectonic stresses prior to an earthquake. We investigate the mechanism of the unipolar pulses by coupling the drift-diffusion model of semiconductor theory to Maxwell's equations, thereby producing a model describing the rock volume that generates the pulses in terms of electromagnetism and semiconductor physics. The system of equations is then solved numerically to explore the electromagnetic radiation associated with drift-diffusion currents of electron-hole pairs. [1] Sharma, A. K., P. A. V., and R. N. Haridas (2011), Investigation of ULF magnetic anomaly before moderate earthquakes, Exploration Geophysics 43, 36-46. [2] Hayakawa, M., Y. Hobara, K. Ohta, and K. Hattori (2011), The ultra-low-frequency magnetic disturbances associated with earthquakes, Earthquake Science, 24, 523-534. [3] Bortnik, J., T. E. Bleier, C. Dunson, and F. Freund (2010), Estimating the seismotelluric current
Multi-segment earthquakes and tsunami potential of the Aleutian megathrust
Shennan, I.; Bruhn, R.; Plafker, G.
2009-01-01
Large to great earthquakes and related tsunamis generated on the Aleutian megathrust produce major hazards for both the area of rupture and heavily populated coastlines around much of the Pacific Ocean. Here we use paleoseismic records preserved in coastal sediments to investigate whether segment boundaries control the largest ruptures or whether in some seismic cycles segments combine to produce earthquakes greater than any observed since instrumented records began. Virtually the entire megathrust has ruptured since AD1900, with four different segments generating earthquakes >M8.0. The largest was the M9.2 great Alaska earthquake of March 1964 that ruptured ???800 km of the eastern segment of the megathrust. The tsunami generated caused fatalities in Alaska and along the coast as far south as California. East of the 1964 zone of deformation, the Yakutat microplate experienced two >M8.0 earthquakes, separated by a week, in September 1899. For the first time, we present evidence that earthquakes ???900 and ???1500 years ago simultaneously ruptured adjacent segments of the Aleutian megathrust and the Yakutat microplate, with a combined area ???15% greater than 1964, giving an earthquake of greater magnitude and increased tsunamigenic potential. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Zhang, Lulu; Liu, Xu; Li, Youping; Liu, Yuan; Liu, Zhipeng; Lin, Juncong; Shen, Ji; Tang, Xuefeng; Zhang, Yi; Liang, Wannian
2012-03-03
Major earthquakes often result in incalculable environmental damage, loss of life, and threats to health. Tremendous progress has been made in response to many medical challenges resulting from earthquakes. However, emergency medical rescue is complicated, and great emphasis should be placed on its organisation to achieve the best results. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake was one of the most devastating disasters in the past 10 years and caused more than 370,000 casualties. The lessons learnt from the medical disaster relief effort and the subsequent knowledge gained about the regulation and capabilities of medical and military back-up teams should be widely disseminated. In this Review we summarise and analyse the emergency medical rescue efforts after the Wenchuan earthquake. Establishment of a national disaster medical response system, an active and effective commanding system, successful coordination between rescue forces and government agencies, effective treatment, a moderate, timely and correct public health response, and long-term psychological support are all crucial to reduce mortality and morbidity and promote overall effectiveness of rescue efforts after a major earthquake. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Chilean megathrust earthquake recurrence linked to frictional contrast at depth
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Moreno, M.; Li, S.; Melnick, D.; Bedford, J. R.; Baez, J. C.; Motagh, M.; Metzger, S.; Vajedian, S.; Sippl, C.; Gutknecht, B. D.; Contreras-Reyes, E.; Deng, Z.; Tassara, A.; Oncken, O.
2018-04-01
Fundamental processes of the seismic cycle in subduction zones, including those controlling the recurrence and size of great earthquakes, are still poorly understood. Here, by studying the 2016 earthquake in southern Chile—the first large event within the rupture zone of the 1960 earthquake (moment magnitude (Mw) = 9.5)—we show that the frictional zonation of the plate interface fault at depth mechanically controls the timing of more frequent, moderate-size deep events (Mw < 8) and less frequent, tsunamigenic great shallow earthquakes (Mw > 8.5). We model the evolution of stress build-up for a seismogenic zone with heterogeneous friction to examine the link between the 2016 and 1960 earthquakes. Our results suggest that the deeper segments of the seismogenic megathrust are weaker and interseismically loaded by a more strongly coupled, shallower asperity. Deeper segments fail earlier ( 60 yr recurrence), producing moderate-size events that precede the failure of the shallower region, which fails in a great earthquake (recurrence >110 yr). We interpret the contrasting frictional strength and lag time between deeper and shallower earthquakes to be controlled by variations in pore fluid pressure. Our integrated analysis strengthens understanding of the mechanics and timing of great megathrust earthquakes, and therefore could aid in the seismic hazard assessment of other subduction zones.
Brocher, Thomas M.; Hopper, Margaret G.; Algermissen, S.T. Ted; Perkins, David M.; Brockman, Stanley R.; Arnold, Edouard P.
2017-01-01
Reported aftershock durations, earthquake effects, and other observations from the large 14 December 1872 earthquake in central Washington are consistent with an epicenter near Entiat, Washington. Aftershocks were reported for more than 3 months only near Entiat. Modal intensity data described in this article are consistent with an Entiat area epicenter, where the largest modified Mercalli intensities, VIII, were assigned between Lake Chelan and Wenatchee. Although ground failures and water effects were widespread, there is a concentration of these features along the Columbia River and its tributaries in the Entiat area. Assuming linear ray paths, misfits from 23 reports of the directions of horizontal shaking have a local minima at Entiat, assuming the reports are describing surface waves, but the region having comparable misfit is large. Broadband seismograms recorded for comparable ray paths provide insight into the reasons why possible S–P times estimated from felt reports at two locations are several seconds too small to be consistent with an Entiat area epicenter.
Extending earthquakes' reach through cascading.
Marsan, David; Lengliné, Olivier
2008-02-22
Earthquakes, whatever their size, can trigger other earthquakes. Mainshocks cause aftershocks to occur, which in turn activate their own local aftershock sequences, resulting in a cascade of triggering that extends the reach of the initial mainshock. A long-lasting difficulty is to determine which earthquakes are connected, either directly or indirectly. Here we show that this causal structure can be found probabilistically, with no a priori model nor parameterization. Large regional earthquakes are found to have a short direct influence in comparison to the overall aftershock sequence duration. Relative to these large mainshocks, small earthquakes collectively have a greater effect on triggering. Hence, cascade triggering is a key component in earthquake interactions.
Measuring the effectiveness of earthquake forecasting in insurance strategies
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mignan, A.; Muir-Wood, R.
2009-04-01
Given the difficulty of judging whether the skill of a particular methodology of earthquake forecasts is offset by the inevitable false alarms and missed predictions, it is important to find a means to weigh the successes and failures according to a common currency. Rather than judge subjectively the relative costs and benefits of predictions, we develop a simple method to determine if the use of earthquake forecasts can increase the profitability of active financial risk management strategies employed in standard insurance procedures. Three types of risk management transactions are employed: (1) insurance underwriting, (2) reinsurance purchasing and (3) investment in CAT bonds. For each case premiums are collected based on modelled technical risk costs and losses are modelled for the portfolio in force at the time of the earthquake. A set of predetermined actions follow from the announcement of any change in earthquake hazard, so that, for each earthquake forecaster, the financial performance of an active risk management strategy can be compared with the equivalent passive strategy in which no notice is taken of earthquake forecasts. Overall performance can be tracked through time to determine which strategy gives the best long term financial performance. This will be determined by whether the skill in forecasting the location and timing of a significant earthquake (where loss is avoided) is outweighed by false predictions (when no premium is collected). This methodology is to be tested in California, where catastrophe modeling is reasonably mature and where a number of researchers issue earthquake forecasts.
Analysis of post-earthquake landslide activity and geo-environmental effects
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tang, Chenxiao; van Westen, Cees; Jetten, Victor
2014-05-01
Large earthquakes can cause huge losses to human society, due to ground shaking, fault rupture and due to the high density of co-seismic landslides that can be triggered in mountainous areas. In areas that have been affected by such large earthquakes, the threat of landslides continues also after the earthquake, as the co-seismic landslides may be reactivated by high intensity rainfall events. Earthquakes create Huge amount of landslide materials remain on the slopes, leading to a high frequency of landslides and debris flows after earthquakes which threaten lives and create great difficulties in post-seismic reconstruction in the earthquake-hit regions. Without critical information such as the frequency and magnitude of landslides after a major earthquake, reconstruction planning and hazard mitigation works appear to be difficult. The area hit by Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, Sichuan province, China, shows some typical examples of bad reconstruction planning due to lack of information: huge debris flows destroyed several re-constructed settlements. This research aim to analyze the decay in post-seismic landslide activity in areas that have been hit by a major earthquake. The areas hit by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake will be taken a study area. The study will analyze the factors that control post-earthquake landslide activity through the quantification of the landslide volume changes well as through numerical simulation of their initiation process, to obtain a better understanding of the potential threat of post-earthquake landslide as a basis for mitigation planning. The research will make use of high-resolution stereo satellite images, UAV and Terrestrial Laser Scanning(TLS) to obtain multi-temporal DEM to monitor the change of loose sediments and post-seismic landslide activities. A debris flow initiation model that incorporates the volume of source materials, vegetation re-growth, and intensity-duration of the triggering precipitation, and that evaluates
Insuring against earthquakes: simulating the cost-effectiveness of disaster preparedness.
de Hoop, Thomas; Ruben, Ruerd
2010-04-01
Ex-ante measures to improve risk preparedness for natural disasters are generally considered to be more effective than ex-post measures. Nevertheless, most resources are allocated after an event in geographical areas that are vulnerable to natural disasters. This paper analyses the cost-effectiveness of ex-ante adaptation measures in the wake of earthquakes and provides an assessment of the future role of private and public agencies in disaster risk management. The study uses a simulation model approach to evaluate consumption losses after earthquakes under different scenarios of intervention. Particular attention is given to the role of activity diversification measures in enhancing disaster preparedness and the contributions of (targeted) microcredit and education programmes for reconstruction following a disaster. Whereas the former measures are far more cost-effective, missing markets and perverse incentives tend to make ex-post measures a preferred option, thus occasioning underinvestment in ex-ante adaptation initiatives.
Florkowski, Christopher M; Chambers, Stephen T; Priest, Patricia C; Stewart, Alistair W; Jennings, Lance C; Livesey, John H; Camargo, Carlos A; Scragg, Robert; Murdoch, David R
2014-01-01
Objective To determine whether supplementation with vitamin D improves resilience to the adverse effects of earthquakes. Design Opportunistic addition to an established randomised double blind placebo controlled trial. Setting Christchurch, New Zealand, where a prolonged series of catastrophic earthquakes beginning on 4 September 2010 occurred, which caused widespread destruction, fatalities, and extensive psychological damage. Participants 322 healthy adults (241 women; 81 men) aged 18-67 who were already participating in the vitamin D and acute respiratory infections study (VIDARIS) between February 2010 and November 2011. Intervention Participants were randomised to receive an oral dose of either 200 000 IU vitamin D3 monthly for two months then 100 000 IU monthly (n=161) or placebo (n=161) for a total of 18 months. Main outcome measure This is a post hoc analysis from the previously published VIDARIS trial. The primary endpoint in the current analysis was the self reported effects and overall adverse impact of the Christchurch earthquakes as assessed by questionnaire four months after the most destructive earthquake on 22 February 2011, which was used as the index event. The secondary end point was the number of “psychological” adverse events that participants reported at their usual monthly appointments as part of the original VIDARIS trial. Results 308 participants completed the earthquake impact questionnaire (n=152 in the vitamin D group and 156 in the placebo group). There was no significant difference in the number of self reported adverse effects between those receiving vitamin D supplementation and those receiving placebo. There was also no difference in the overall adverse impact score between treatment groups (χ2 P=0.44). The exception was that those in the vitamin D group experienced more adverse effects on family relationships (22% v 13%; χ2 P=0.03). The number of psychological adverse events—such as fatigue, stress, anxiety, and insomnia
Slow, Sandy; Florkowski, Christopher M; Chambers, Stephen T; Priest, Patricia C; Stewart, Alistair W; Jennings, Lance C; Livesey, John H; Camargo, Carlos A; Scragg, Robert; Murdoch, David R
2014-12-15
To determine whether supplementation with vitamin D improves resilience to the adverse effects of earthquakes. Opportunistic addition to an established randomised double blind placebo controlled trial. Christchurch, New Zealand, where a prolonged series of catastrophic earthquakes beginning on 4 September 2010 occurred, which caused widespread destruction, fatalities, and extensive psychological damage. 322 healthy adults (241 women; 81 men) aged 18-67 who were already participating in the vitamin D and acute respiratory infections study (VIDARIS) between February 2010 and November 2011. Participants were randomised to receive an oral dose of either 200,000 IU vitamin D3 monthly for two months then 100,000 IU monthly (n=161) or placebo (n=161) for a total of 18 months. This is a post hoc analysis from the previously published VIDARIS trial. The primary endpoint in the current analysis was the self reported effects and overall adverse impact of the Christchurch earthquakes as assessed by questionnaire four months after the most destructive earthquake on 22 February 2011, which was used as the index event. The secondary end point was the number of "psychological" adverse events that participants reported at their usual monthly appointments as part of the original VIDARIS trial. 308 participants completed the earthquake impact questionnaire (n=152 in the vitamin D group and 156 in the placebo group). There was no significant difference in the number of self reported adverse effects between those receiving vitamin D supplementation and those receiving placebo. There was also no difference in the overall adverse impact score between treatment groups (χ(2) P=0.44). The exception was that those in the vitamin D group experienced more adverse effects on family relationships (22% v 13%; χ(2) P=0.03). The number of psychological adverse events-such as fatigue, stress, anxiety, and insomnia-that participants reported at their usual monthly appointments was significantly
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Pakiser, Louis C.
One of a series of general interest publications on science topics, the booklet provides those interested in earthquakes with an introduction to the subject. Following a section presenting an historical look at the world's major earthquakes, the booklet discusses earthquake-prone geographic areas, the nature and workings of earthquakes, earthquake…
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bejar, M.; Alvarez Gomez, J. A.; Staller, A.; Luna, M. P.; Perez Lopez, R.; Monserrat, O.; Chunga, K.; Herrera, G.; Jordá, L.; Lima, A.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.
2017-12-01
It has long been recognized that earthquakes change the stress in the upper crust around the fault rupture and can influence the short-term behaviour of neighbouring faults and volcanoes. Rapid estimates of these stress changes can provide the authorities managing the post-disaster situation with a useful tool to identify and monitor potential threads and to update the estimates of seismic and volcanic hazard in a region. Space geodesy is now routinely used following an earthquake to image the displacement of the ground and estimate the rupture geometry and the distribution of slip. Using the obtained source model, it is possible to evaluate the remaining moment deficit and to infer the stress changes on nearby faults and volcanoes produced by the earthquake, which can be used to identify which faults and volcanoes are brought closer to failure or activation. Although these procedures are commonly used today, the transference of these results to the authorities managing the post-disaster situation is not straightforward and thus its usefulness is reduced in practice. Here we propose a methodology to evaluate the potential influence of an earthquake on nearby faults and volcanoes and create easy-to-understand maps for decision-making support after an earthquake. We apply this methodology to the Mw 7.8, 2016 Ecuador earthquake. Using Sentinel-1 SAR and continuous GPS data, we measure the coseismic ground deformation and estimate the distribution of slip. Then we use this model to evaluate the moment deficit on the subduction interface and changes of stress on the surrounding faults and volcanoes. The results are compared with the seismic and volcanic events that have occurred after the earthquake. We discuss potential and limits of the methodology and the lessons learnt from discussion with local authorities.
Areas prone to slow slip events impede earthquake rupture propagation and promote afterslip.
Rolandone, Frederique; Nocquet, Jean-Mathieu; Mothes, Patricia A; Jarrin, Paul; Vallée, Martin; Cubas, Nadaya; Hernandez, Stephen; Plain, Morgan; Vaca, Sandro; Font, Yvonne
2018-01-01
At subduction zones, transient aseismic slip occurs either as afterslip following a large earthquake or as episodic slow slip events during the interseismic period. Afterslip and slow slip events are usually considered as distinct processes occurring on separate fault areas governed by different frictional properties. Continuous GPS (Global Positioning System) measurements following the 2016 M w (moment magnitude) 7.8 Ecuador earthquake reveal that large and rapid afterslip developed at discrete areas of the megathrust that had previously hosted slow slip events. Regardless of whether they were locked or not before the earthquake, these areas appear to persistently release stress by aseismic slip throughout the earthquake cycle and outline the seismic rupture, an observation potentially leading to a better anticipation of future large earthquakes.
Areas prone to slow slip events impede earthquake rupture propagation and promote afterslip
Rolandone, Frederique; Nocquet, Jean-Mathieu; Mothes, Patricia A.; Jarrin, Paul; Vallée, Martin; Cubas, Nadaya; Hernandez, Stephen; Plain, Morgan; Vaca, Sandro; Font, Yvonne
2018-01-01
At subduction zones, transient aseismic slip occurs either as afterslip following a large earthquake or as episodic slow slip events during the interseismic period. Afterslip and slow slip events are usually considered as distinct processes occurring on separate fault areas governed by different frictional properties. Continuous GPS (Global Positioning System) measurements following the 2016 Mw (moment magnitude) 7.8 Ecuador earthquake reveal that large and rapid afterslip developed at discrete areas of the megathrust that had previously hosted slow slip events. Regardless of whether they were locked or not before the earthquake, these areas appear to persistently release stress by aseismic slip throughout the earthquake cycle and outline the seismic rupture, an observation potentially leading to a better anticipation of future large earthquakes. PMID:29404404
Do Earthquakes Shake Stock Markets?
Ferreira, Susana; Karali, Berna
2015-01-01
This paper examines how major earthquakes affected the returns and volatility of aggregate stock market indices in thirty-five financial markets over the last twenty years. Results show that global financial markets are resilient to shocks caused by earthquakes even if these are domestic. Our analysis reveals that, in a few instances, some macroeconomic variables and earthquake characteristics (gross domestic product per capita, trade openness, bilateral trade flows, earthquake magnitude, a tsunami indicator, distance to the epicenter, and number of fatalities) mediate the impact of earthquakes on stock market returns, resulting in a zero net effect. However, the influence of these variables is market-specific, indicating no systematic pattern across global capital markets. Results also demonstrate that stock market volatility is unaffected by earthquakes, except for Japan.
Transient triggering of near and distant earthquakes
Gomberg, J.; Blanpied, M.L.; Beeler, N.M.
1997-01-01
We demonstrate qualitatively that frictional instability theory provides a context for understanding how earthquakes may be triggered by transient loads associated with seismic waves from near and distance earthquakes. We assume that earthquake triggering is a stick-slip process and test two hypotheses about the effect of transients on the timing of instabilities using a simple spring-slider model and a rate- and state-dependent friction constitutive law. A critical triggering threshold is implicit in such a model formulation. Our first hypothesis is that transient loads lead to clock advances; i.e., transients hasten the time of earthquakes that would have happened eventually due to constant background loading alone. Modeling results demonstrate that transient loads do lead to clock advances and that the triggered instabilities may occur after the transient has ceased (i.e., triggering may be delayed). These simple "clock-advance" models predict complex relationships between the triggering delay, the clock advance, and the transient characteristics. The triggering delay and the degree of clock advance both depend nonlinearly on when in the earthquake cycle the transient load is applied. This implies that the stress required to bring about failure does not depend linearly on loading time, even when the fault is loaded at a constant rate. The timing of instability also depends nonlinearly on the transient loading rate, faster rates more rapidly hastening instability. This implies that higher-frequency and/or longer-duration seismic waves should increase the amount of clock advance. These modeling results and simple calculations suggest that near (tens of kilometers) small/moderate earthquakes and remote (thousands of kilometers) earthquakes with magnitudes 2 to 3 units larger may be equally effective at triggering seismicity. Our second hypothesis is that some triggered seismicity represents earthquakes that would not have happened without the transient load (i
Earthquakes, fluid pressures and rapid subduction zone metamorphism
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Viete, D. R.
2013-12-01
-pore pressure relief could conceivably produce a record of episodic HP/LT metamorphism driven by rapid pressure pulses. A new hypothesis is presented for the origins of HP/LT metamorphism: that HP/LT metamorphism is driven by effective pressure pulses caused by localized, earthquake-related modifications to fluid pressures in the subducted slab. In other words, HP/LT metamorphism marks abrupt changes in stress state within the subducted slab, driven by earthquake rupture and fluid flow, and involving a rapid return toward lithostatic pressure from effective pressures well below lithostatic. References: 1. Bjørnerud, MG, Austrheim, H & Lund, MG, 2002. Processes leading to eclogitization (densification) of subducted and tectonically buried crust. Journal of Geophysical Research 107, 2252. 2. Camacho, A, Lee, JKW, Hensen, BJ & Braun, J, 2005. Short-lived orogenic cycles and the eclogitization of cold crust by spasmodic hot fluids. Nature 435, 1191-1196. 3. Green, HW & Houston, H, 1995. The mechanics of deep earthquakes. Annual Reviews of Earth and Planetary Sciences 23, 169-213. 4. Hacker, BR, Peacock, SM, Abers, GA & Holloway, SD, 2003. Subduction factory 2. Are intermediate-depth earthquakes in subducting slabs linked to metamorphic dehydration reactions?. Journal of Geophysical Research 108, 2030.
Earthquakes in the United States
Stover, C.
1977-01-01
To supplement data in the report Preliminary Determination of Epicenters (PDE), the National earthquake Information Service (NEIS) also publishes a quarterly circular, Earthquakes in the United States. This provides information on the felt area of U.S earthquakes and their intensity. The main purpose is to describe the larger effects of these earthquakes so that they can be used in seismic risk studies, site evaluations for nuclear power plants, and answering inquiries by the general public.
On to what extent stresses resulting from the earth's surface trigger earthquakes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Klose, C. D.
2009-12-01
The debate on static versus dynamic earthquake triggering mainly concentrates on endogenous crustal forces, including fault-fault interactions or seismic wave transients of remote earthquakes. Incomprehensibly, earthquake triggering due to surface processes, however, still receives little scientific attention. This presentation continues a discussion on the hypothesis of how “tiny” stresses stemming from the earth's surface can trigger major earthquakes, such as for example, China's M7.9 Wenchuan earthquake of May 2008. This seismic event is thought to be triggered by up to 1.1 billion metric tons of water (~130m) that accumulated in the Minjiang River Valley at the eastern margin of the Longmen Shan. Specifically, the water level rose by ~80m (static), with additional seasonal water level changes of ~50m (dynamic). Two and a half years prior to mainshock, static and dynamic Coulomb failure stresses were induced on the nearby Beichuan thrust fault system at <17km depth. Triggering stresses were equivalent to levels of daily tides and perturbed a fault area measuring 416+/-96km^2. The mainshock ruptured after 2.5 years when only the static stressing regime was predominant and the transient stressing (seasonal water level) was infinitesimal small. The short triggering delay of about 2 years suggests that the Beichuan fault might have been near the end of its seismic cycle, which may also confirm what previous geological findings have indicated. This presentation shows on to what extend the static and 1-year periodic triggering stress perturbations a) accounted for equivalent tectonic loading, given a 4-10kyr earthquake cycle and b) altered the background seismicity beneath the valley, i.e., daily event rate and earthquake size distribution.
Effects of Strike-Slip Fault Segmentation on Earthquake Energy and Seismic Hazard
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Madden, E. H.; Cooke, M. L.; Savage, H. M.; McBeck, J.
2014-12-01
Many major strike-slip faults are segmented along strike, including those along plate boundaries in California and Turkey. Failure of distinct fault segments at depth may be the source of multiple pulses of seismic radiation observed for single earthquakes. However, how and when segmentation affects fault behavior and energy release is the basis of many outstanding questions related to the physics of faulting and seismic hazard. These include the probability for a single earthquake to rupture multiple fault segments and the effects of segmentation on earthquake magnitude, radiated seismic energy, and ground motions. Using numerical models, we quantify components of the earthquake energy budget, including the tectonic work acting externally on the system, the energy of internal rock strain, the energy required to overcome fault strength and initiate slip, the energy required to overcome frictional resistance during slip, and the radiated seismic energy. We compare the energy budgets of systems of two en echelon fault segments with various spacing that include both releasing and restraining steps. First, we allow the fault segments to fail simultaneously and capture the effects of segmentation geometry on the earthquake energy budget and on the efficiency with which applied displacement is accommodated. Assuming that higher efficiency correlates with higher probability for a single, larger earthquake, this approach has utility for assessing the seismic hazard of segmented faults. Second, we nucleate slip along a weak portion of one fault segment and let the quasi-static rupture propagate across the system. Allowing fractures to form near faults in these models shows that damage develops within releasing steps and promotes slip along the second fault, while damage develops outside of restraining steps and can prohibit slip along the second fault. Work is consumed in both the propagation of and frictional slip along these new fractures, impacting the energy available
Atmospheric Signals Associated with Major Earthquakes. A Multi-Sensor Approach. Chapter 9
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Ouzounov, Dimitar; Pulinets, Sergey; Hattori, Katsumi; Kafatos, Menas; Taylor, Patrick
2011-01-01
We are studying the possibility of a connection between atmospheric observation recorded by several ground and satellites as earthquakes precursors. Our main goal is to search for the existence and cause of physical phenomenon related to prior earthquake activity and to gain a better understanding of the physics of earthquake and earthquake cycles. The recent catastrophic earthquake in Japan in March 2011 has provided a renewed interest in the important question of the existence of precursory signals preceding strong earthquakes. We will demonstrate our approach based on integration and analysis of several atmospheric and environmental parameters that were found associated with earthquakes. These observations include: thermal infrared radiation, radon! ion activities; air temperature and humidity and a concentration of electrons in the ionosphere. We describe a possible physical link between atmospheric observations with earthquake precursors using the latest Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling model, one of several paradigms used to explain our observations. Initial results for the period of2003-2009 are presented from our systematic hind-cast validation studies. We present our findings of multi-sensor atmospheric precursory signals for two major earthquakes in Japan, M6.7 Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki of July16, 2007 and the latest M9.0 great Tohoku earthquakes of March 11,2011
Estimation of earthquake effects associated with a great earthquake in the New Madrid seismic zone
Hopper, Margaret G.; Algermissen, Sylvester Theodore; Dobrovolny, Ernest E.
1983-01-01
Estimates have been made of the effects of a large Ms = 8.6, Io = XI earthquake hypothesed to occur anywhere in the New Madrid seismic zone. The estimates are based on the distributions of intensities associated with the earthquakes of 1811-12, 1843 and 1895 although the effects of other historical shocks are also considered. The resulting composite type intensity map for a maximum intensity XI is believed to represent the upper level of shaking likely to occur. Specific intensity maps have been developed for six cities near the epicentral region taking into account the most likely distribution of site response in each city. Intensities found are: IX for Carbondale, IL; VIII and IX for Evansville, IN; VI and VIII for Little Rock, AR; IX and X for Memphis, TN; VIII, IX, and X for Paducah, KY; and VIII and X for Poplar Bluff, MO. On a regional scale, intensities are found to attenuate from the New Madrid seismic zone most rapidly to the west and southwest sides of the zone, most slowly to the northwest along the Mississippi River, on the northeast along the Ohio River, and on the southeast toward Georgia and South Carolina. Intensities attenuate toward the north, east, and south in a more normal fashion. Known liquefaction effects are documented but much more research is needed to define the liquefaction potential.
Do Earthquakes Shake Stock Markets?
2015-01-01
This paper examines how major earthquakes affected the returns and volatility of aggregate stock market indices in thirty-five financial markets over the last twenty years. Results show that global financial markets are resilient to shocks caused by earthquakes even if these are domestic. Our analysis reveals that, in a few instances, some macroeconomic variables and earthquake characteristics (gross domestic product per capita, trade openness, bilateral trade flows, earthquake magnitude, a tsunami indicator, distance to the epicenter, and number of fatalities) mediate the impact of earthquakes on stock market returns, resulting in a zero net effect. However, the influence of these variables is market-specific, indicating no systematic pattern across global capital markets. Results also demonstrate that stock market volatility is unaffected by earthquakes, except for Japan. PMID:26197482
Effects of a cycle training course on children's cycling skills and levels of cycling to school.
Ducheyne, Fabian; De Bourdeaudhuij, Ilse; Lenoir, Matthieu; Cardon, Greet
2014-06-01
The primary aim of the present study was to evaluate the short- and longer-term effects of a cycle training on children's cycling skills. A second aim of the study was to examine the effects of a cycle training, with and without parental involvement, on levels of cycling to school and on parental attitudes towards cycling. Three participating schools were randomly assigned to the "intervention" (25 children), the "intervention plus parent" (34 children) or "control" condition (35 children). A cycle training (four sessions of 45 min) took place only in the intervention schools. Parents in the "intervention plus parent" condition were asked to assist their child in completing weekly homework tasks. Children's cycling skills were assessed, using a practical cycling test. All participating children also received a short parental questionnaire on cycling behavior and parental attitudes towards cycling. Assessments took place at baseline, within 1 week after the last session and at 5-months follow-up. Repeated measure analyses were conducted to evaluate the effects of the cycle training. Children's total cycling skill score increased significantly more from pre to post and from pre to 5-months follow-up in the intervention group than in the control group. On walking with the bicycle (F=1.6), cycling in a straight line (F=2.6), cycling a slalom (F=1.9), cycling over obstacles (F=2.1), cycling on a sloping surface (F=1.7) and dismounting the bicycle (F=2.0), the cycle training had no effect. For all other cycling skills, significant improvements were observed on short- and longer-term. No significant intervention effects were found on children's cycling to school levels (F=1.9) and parental attitudes towards cycling. The cycle training course was effective in improving children's cycling skills and the improvements were maintained 5 months later. However, the cycle training course was not effective in increasing children's cycling to school levels. Copyright © 2014
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yamada, T.; Nakahigashi, K.; Shinohara, M.; Mochizuki, K.; Shiobara, H.
2014-12-01
Huge earthquakes cause vastly stress field change around the rupture zones, and many aftershocks and other related geophysical phenomenon such as geodetic movements have been observed. It is important to figure out the time-spacious distribution during the relaxation process for understanding the giant earthquake cycle. In this study, we pick up the southern rupture area of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (M9.0). The seismicity rate keeps still high compared with that before the 2011 earthquake. Many studies using ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs) have been doing since soon after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake in order to obtain aftershock activity precisely. Here we show one of the studies at off the coast of Fukushima which is located on the southern part of the rupture area caused by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. We deployed 4 broadband type OBSs (BBOBSs) and 12 short-period type OBSs (SOBS) in August 2012. Other 4 BBOBSs attached with absolute pressure gauges and 20 SOBSs were added in November 2012. We recovered 36 OBSs including 8 BBOBSs in November 2013. We selected 1,000 events in the vicinity of the OBS network based on a hypocenter catalog published by the Japan Meteorological Agency, and extracted the data after time corrections caused by each internal clock. Each P and S wave arrival times, P wave polarity and maximum amplitude were picked manually on a computer display. We assumed one dimensional velocity structure based on the result from an active source experiment across our network, and applied time corrections every station for removing ambiguity of the assumed structure. Then we adopted a maximum-likelihood estimation technique and calculated the hypocenters. The results show that intensive activity near the Japan Trench can be seen, while there was a quiet seismic zone between the trench zone and landward high activity zone.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Martín-González, Fidel; Martín-Velazquez, Silvia; Rodrigez-Pascua, Miguel Angel; Pérez-López, Raul; Silva, Pablo
2014-05-01
The intensity scales determined the damage caused by an earthquake. However, a new methodology takes into account not only the damage but the type of damage "Earthquake Archaeological Effects", EAE's, and its orientation (e.g. displaced masonry blocks, conjugated fractures, fallen and oriented columns, impact marks, dipping broken corners, etc.) (Rodriguez-Pascua et al., 2011; Giner-Robles et al., 2012). Its main contribution is that it focuses not only on the amount of damage but also in its orientation, giving information about the ground motion during the earthquake. Therefore, this orientations and instrumental data can be correlated with historical earthquakes. In 2011 an earthquake of magnitude Mw 5.2 took place in Lorca (SE Spain) (9 casualties and 460 million Euros in reparations). The study of the EAE's was carried out through the whole city (Giner-Robles et al., 2012). The present study aimed to a.- validate the EAE's methodology using it only in a small place, specifically the cemetery of San Clemente in Lorca, and b.- constraining the range of orientation for each EAE's. This cemetery has been selected because these damage orientation data can be correlated with instrumental information available, and also because this place has: a.- wide variety of architectural styles (neogothic, neobaroque, neoarabian), b.- its Cultural Interest (BIC), and c.- different building materials (brick, limestone, marble). The procedure involved two main phases: a.- inventory and identification of damage (EAE's) by pictures, and b.- analysis of the damage orientations. The orientation was calculated for each EAE's and plotted in maps. Results are NW-SE damage orientation. This orientation is consistent with that recorded in the accelerometer of Lorca (N160°E) and with that obtained from the analysis of EAE's for the whole town of Lorca (N130°E) (Giner-Robles et al., 2012). Due to the existence of an accelerometer, we know the orientation of the peak ground acceleration
Making the Handoff from Earthquake Hazard Assessments to Effective Mitigation Measures (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Applegate, D.
2010-12-01
This year has witnessed a barrage of large earthquakes worldwide with the resulting damages ranging from inconsequential to truly catastrophic. We cannot predict when earthquakes will strike, but we can build communities that are resilient to strong shaking as well as to secondary hazards such as landslides and liquefaction. The contrasting impacts of the magnitude-7 earthquake that struck Haiti in January and the magnitude-8.8 event that struck Chile in April underscore the difference that mitigation and preparedness can make. In both cases, millions of people were exposed to severe shaking, but deaths in Chile were measured in the hundreds rather than the hundreds of thousands that perished in Haiti. Numerous factors contributed to these disparate outcomes, but the most significant is the presence of strong building codes in Chile and their total absence in Haiti. The financial cost of the Chilean earthquake still represents an unacceptably high percentage of that nation’s gross domestic product, a reminder that life safety is the paramount, but not the only, goal of disaster risk reduction measures. For building codes to be effective, both in terms of lives saved and economic cost, they need to reflect the hazard as accurately as possible. As one of four federal agencies that make up the congressionally mandated National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) develops national seismic hazard maps that form the basis for seismic provisions in model building codes through the Federal Emergency Management Agency and private-sector practitioners. This cooperation is central to NEHRP, which both fosters earthquake research and establishes pathways to translate research results into implementation measures. That translation depends on the ability of hazard-focused scientists to interact and develop mutual trust with risk-focused engineers and planners. Strengthening that interaction is an opportunity for the next generation
Modified-Fibonacci-Dual-Lucas method for earthquake prediction
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Boucouvalas, A. C.; Gkasios, M.; Tselikas, N. T.; Drakatos, G.
2015-06-01
The FDL method makes use of Fibonacci, Dual and Lucas numbers and has shown considerable success in predicting earthquake events locally as well as globally. Predicting the location of the epicenter of an earthquake is one difficult challenge the other being the timing and magnitude. One technique for predicting the onset of earthquakes is the use of cycles, and the discovery of periodicity. Part of this category is the reported FDL method. The basis of the reported FDL method is the creation of FDL future dates based on the onset date of significant earthquakes. The assumption being that each occurred earthquake discontinuity can be thought of as a generating source of FDL time series The connection between past earthquakes and future earthquakes based on FDL numbers has also been reported with sample earthquakes since 1900. Using clustering methods it has been shown that significant earthquakes (<6.5R) can be predicted with very good accuracy window (+-1 day). In this contribution we present an improvement modification to the FDL method, the MFDL method, which performs better than the FDL. We use the FDL numbers to develop possible earthquakes dates but with the important difference that the starting seed date is a trigger planetary aspect prior to the earthquake. Typical planetary aspects are Moon conjunct Sun, Moon opposite Sun, Moon conjunct or opposite North or South Modes. In order to test improvement of the method we used all +8R earthquakes recorded since 1900, (86 earthquakes from USGS data). We have developed the FDL numbers for each of those seeds, and examined the earthquake hit rates (for a window of 3, i.e. +-1 day of target date) and for <6.5R. The successes are counted for each one of the 86 earthquake seeds and we compare the MFDL method with the FDL method. In every case we find improvement when the starting seed date is on the planetary trigger date prior to the earthquake. We observe no improvement only when a planetary trigger coincided with
Earthquake hazards: a national threat
,
2006-01-01
Earthquakes are one of the most costly natural hazards faced by the Nation, posing a significant risk to 75 million Americans in 39 States. The risks that earthquakes pose to society, including death, injury, and economic loss, can be greatly reduced by (1) better planning, construction, and mitigation practices before earthquakes happen, and (2) providing critical and timely information to improve response after they occur. As part of the multi-agency National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has the lead Federal responsibility to provide notification of earthquakes in order to enhance public safety and to reduce losses through effective forecasts based on the best possible scientific information.
Time-variable stress transfer across a megathrust from seismic to Wilson cycle scale
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rosenau, Matthias; Angiboust, Samuel; Moreno, Marcos; Schurr, Bernd; Oncken, Onno
2013-04-01
During the lifetime of a convergent plate margin stress transfer across the plate interface (a megathrust) can be expected to vary at multiple timescales. At short time scales (years to decades), a subduction megathrust interface appears coupled (accumulating shear stress) at shallow depth (seismogenic zone <350°C) in a laterally heterogeneous fashion. Highly coupled areas are prerequisite to areas of large slip (asperities) during future earthquakes but the correlation is rarely unequivocal suggesting that the coupling pattern is transient during the interseismic period. As temperature, structure and material properties are unlike to change at short time scales as well as at short distance along strike, fluid pressure change is invoked as the prime agent of lateral and time-variable stress transfer at short time (seismic cycle) scale and beyond. On longer time scales (up to Wilson cycles), additional agents of time-variable stress change are discussed. Shear tests using velocity weakening rock analogue material suggest that in a conditionally stable regime the effective normal load controls both the geodetic and the seismic coupling (fraction of convergence velocity accommodated by interseismic backslip/seismic slip). Accordingly seismic coupling decreases from 80% to 20% as the pore fluid pressure increases from hydrostatic to near-lithostatic. Moreover, the experiments demonstrate that at sub-seismic cycle scale the geodetic coupling (locking) is not only proportional to effective normal load but also to relative shear stress. For areas of near complete stress drop locking might systematically decrease over the interseismic period from >80-95 % shortly after an earthquake to backslip at significant fractions of plate convergence rate (<5-45 % locking) later in the seismic cycle. If we allow pore fluid pressures to change at sub-seismic cycle scale a single location along a megathrust may thus appear fully locked after an earthquake while fully unlocked before
What Can Sounds Tell Us About Earthquake Interactions?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Aiken, C.; Peng, Z.
2012-12-01
It is important not only for seismologists but also for educators to effectively convey information about earthquakes and the influences earthquakes can have on each other. Recent studies using auditory display [e.g. Kilb et al., 2012; Peng et al. 2012] have depicted catastrophic earthquakes and the effects large earthquakes can have on other parts of the world. Auditory display of earthquakes, which combines static images with time-compressed sound of recorded seismic data, is a new approach to disseminating information to a general audience about earthquakes and earthquake interactions. Earthquake interactions are influential to understanding the underlying physics of earthquakes and other seismic phenomena such as tremors in addition to their source characteristics (e.g. frequency contents, amplitudes). Earthquake interactions can include, for example, a large, shallow earthquake followed by increased seismicity around the mainshock rupture (i.e. aftershocks) or even a large earthquake triggering earthquakes or tremors several hundreds to thousands of kilometers away [Hill and Prejean, 2007; Peng and Gomberg, 2010]. We use standard tools like MATLAB, QuickTime Pro, and Python to produce animations that illustrate earthquake interactions. Our efforts are focused on producing animations that depict cross-section (side) views of tremors triggered along the San Andreas Fault by distant earthquakes, as well as map (bird's eye) views of mainshock-aftershock sequences such as the 2011/08/23 Mw5.8 Virginia earthquake sequence. These examples of earthquake interactions include sonifying earthquake and tremor catalogs as musical notes (e.g. piano keys) as well as audifying seismic data using time-compression. Our overall goal is to use auditory display to invigorate a general interest in earthquake seismology that leads to the understanding of how earthquakes occur, how earthquakes influence one another as well as tremors, and what the musical properties of these
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kafka, A.; Barnett, M.; Ebel, J.; Bellegarde, H.; Campbell, L.
2004-12-01
The occurrence of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake provided a unique "teachable moment" for students in our science course for teacher education majors. The course uses seismology as a medium for teaching a wide variety of science topics appropriate for future teachers. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake occurred just 15 minutes after our students completed a lab on earthquake processes and earthquake prediction. That lab included a discussion of the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment as a motivation for the exercises they were working on that day. Furthermore, this earthquake was recorded on an AS1 seismograph right in their lab, just minutes after the students left. About an hour after we recorded the earthquake, the students were able to see their own seismogram of the event in the lecture part of the course, which provided an excellent teachable moment for a lecture/discussion on how the occurrence of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake might affect seismologists' ideas about earthquake prediction. The specific lab exercise that the students were working on just before we recorded this earthquake was a "sliding block" experiment that simulates earthquakes in the classroom. The experimental apparatus includes a flat board on top of which are blocks of wood attached to a bungee cord and a string wrapped around a hand crank. Plate motion is modeled by slowly turning the crank, and earthquakes are modeled as events in which the block slips ("blockquakes"). We scaled the earthquake data and the blockquake data (using how much the string moved as a proxy for time) so that we could compare blockquakes and earthquakes. This provided an opportunity to use interevent-time histograms to teach about earthquake processes, probability, and earthquake prediction, and to compare earthquake sequences with blockquake sequences. We were able to show the students, using data obtained directly from their own lab, how global earthquake data fit a Poisson exponential distribution better
The Effects of Historical Earthquakes on Cyzicus Ancient City
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Adatepe, F.; Demirel, S.; Vardar, D.
2012-04-01
Cyzicus is one of the most important ancient settlement of Mysia region on Marmara coasts in Turkey. It's located on Belkis Tombolo which connects Kapıdağ (Arktonnesos) Peninsula to the shore. It was established by the King Cyzicus Kyzikos in B.C. 749 as a Miletos colony during the colonization movements of Ions. The main reason to determine the establishment place of Cyzicus was; a strong defense system formed by the natural conditions and the walls surrounding the city. In addition, from the documents, 3 natural harbor (one of them inner harbor) and one artificial canal in the ancient city has been designated. Because of these features, the ancient city had been developed by maritime trade and fisheries. And also, city's economy had grown due to its fertile soil. Works in marble that came from Marmara Island, were being effective in the artistic activities in the city. Due to the capital city of East Roman Empire was being Constantine (AD 324), the chance of Cyzicus was affected badly. Since its location on the south branch of the North Anatolian Fault zone in the Marmara Sea, ancient city was being ruined by a series of earthquakes. There were fifteen (15) destructive earthquakes occurred between AD 29 - 1887. For example the region had become a swamp because of AD 740 earthquake. At that time, despite metropolitan center pass through to Erdek, the city was not fully abandoned. In the end, the earthquake of 1064 had completely demolished Cyzicus. At the present day, this ancient city has come to the point to be lost in swamps, brushes and shrubs.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Earthquakes and emerging infections may not have a direct cause and effect relationship like tax evasion and jail, but new evidence suggests that there may be a link between the two human health hazards. Various media accounts have cited a massive 1993 earthquake in Maharashtra as a potential catalyst of the recent outbreak of plague in India that has claimed more than 50 lives and alarmed the world. The hypothesis is that the earthquake may have uprooted underground rat populations that carry the fleas infected with the bacterium that causes bubonic plague and can lead to the pneumonic form of the disease that is spread through the air.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Huai; Zhang, Zhen; Wang, Liangshu; Leroy, Yves; shi, Yaolin
2017-04-01
How to reconcile continent megathrust earthquake characteristics, for instances, mapping the large-great earthquake sequences into geological mountain building process, as well as partitioning the seismic-aseismic slips, is fundamental and unclear. Here, we scope these issues by focusing a typical continental collisional belt, the great Nepal Himalaya. We first prove that refined Nepal Himalaya thrusting sequences, with accurately defining of large earthquake cycle scale, provide new geodynamical hints on long-term earthquake potential in association with, either seismic-aseismic slip partition up to the interpretation of the binary interseismic coupling pattern on the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), or the large-great earthquake classification via seismic cycle patterns on MHT. Subsequently, sequential limit analysis is adopted to retrieve the detailed thrusting sequences of Nepal Himalaya mountain wedge. Our model results exhibit apparent thrusting concentration phenomenon with four thrusting clusters, entitled as thrusting 'families', to facilitate the development of sub-structural regions respectively. Within the hinterland thrusting family, the total aseismic shortening and the corresponding spatio-temporal release pattern are revealed by mapping projection. Whereas, in the other three families, mapping projection delivers long-term large (M<8)-great (M>8) earthquake recurrence information, including total lifespans, frequencies and large-great earthquake alternation information by identifying rupture distances along the MHT. In addition, this partition has universality in continental-continental collisional orogenic belt with identified interseismic coupling pattern, while not applicable in continental-oceanic megathrust context.
Earthquakes drive focused denudation along a tectonically active mountain front
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Gen; West, A. Joshua; Densmore, Alexander L.; Jin, Zhangdong; Zhang, Fei; Wang, Jin; Clark, Marin; Hilton, Robert G.
2017-08-01
Earthquakes cause widespread landslides that can increase erosional fluxes observed over years to decades. However, the impact of earthquakes on denudation over the longer timescales relevant to orogenic evolution remains elusive. Here we assess erosion associated with earthquake-triggered landslides in the Longmen Shan range at the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. We use the Mw 7.9 2008 Wenchuan and Mw 6.6 2013 Lushan earthquakes to evaluate how seismicity contributes to the erosional budget from short timescales (annual to decadal, as recorded by sediment fluxes) to long timescales (kyr to Myr, from cosmogenic nuclides and low temperature thermochronology). Over this wide range of timescales, the highest rates of denudation in the Longmen Shan coincide spatially with the region of most intense landsliding during the Wenchuan earthquake. Across sixteen gauged river catchments, sediment flux-derived denudation rates following the Wenchuan earthquake are closely correlated with seismic ground motion and the associated volume of Wenchuan-triggered landslides (r2 > 0.6), and to a lesser extent with the frequency of high intensity runoff events (r2 = 0.36). To assess whether earthquake-induced landsliding can contribute importantly to denudation over longer timescales, we model the total volume of landslides triggered by earthquakes of various magnitudes over multiple earthquake cycles. We combine models that predict the volumes of landslides triggered by earthquakes, calibrated against the Wenchuan and Lushan events, with an earthquake magnitude-frequency distribution. The long-term, landslide-sustained "seismic erosion rate" is similar in magnitude to regional long-term denudation rates (∼0.5-1 mm yr-1). The similar magnitude and spatial coincidence suggest that earthquake-triggered landslides are a primary mechanism of long-term denudation in the frontal Longmen Shan. We propose that the location and intensity of seismogenic faulting can contribute to
An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...
[Psychological effects on medical students caused by earthquakes of 1985].
Piña Barba, B; Torres Cosme, J L; Prawda Witemberg, M; Pérez Reséndiz, G
1991-01-01
Eight months after the earthquakes of September 1985 in Mexico City, an analysis about the psychological symptoms, commonly associated with traumatic experiences was performed, among a population of 708 students, coursing the first year of Medical School. By means of a questionnaire, they reported the symptoms they had experienced before the earthquakes, during the following two weeks, and at the moment of the survey was still higher symptoms at the moment of the survey was still higher than before the earthquakes, so eight months appear to be an insufficient lapse for the complete remission of new cases. About 15.8 per cent of the studied population reported symptomatology that can be considered as having been triggered by the earthquakes. Another sector of the population (11%), previously symptomatic, reported remission after the earthquakes. The group of students directly affected by severe injuries for deaths of either family members, cohabiting persons, or of persons with whom strong affective ties prevailed, showed a greater tendency to present symptomatic states. Women represented the group most affected psychologically by the earthquakes.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kolvankar, V. G.
2013-12-01
During a study conducted to find the effect of Earth tides on the occurrence of earthquakes, for small areas [typically 1000km X1000km] of high-seismicity regions, it was noticed that the Sun's position in terms of universal time [GMT] shows links to the sum of EMD [longitude of earthquake location - longitude of Moon's foot print on earth] and SEM [Sun-Earth-Moon angle]. This paper provides the details of this relationship after studying earthquake data for over forty high-seismicity regions of the world. It was found that over 98% of the earthquakes for these different regions, examined for the period 1973-2008, show a direct relationship between the Sun's position [GMT] and [EMD+SEM]. As the time changes from 00-24 hours, the factor [EMD+SEM] changes through 360 degree, and plotting these two variables for earthquakes from different small regions reveals a simple 45 degree straight-line relationship between them. This relationship was tested for all earthquakes and earthquake sequences for magnitude 2.0 and above. This study conclusively proves how Sun and the Moon govern all earthquakes. Fig. 12 [A+B]. The left-hand figure provides a 24-hour plot for forty consecutive days including the main event (00:58:23 on 26.12.2004, Lat.+3.30, Long+95.980, Mb 9.0, EQ count 376). The right-hand figure provides an earthquake plot for (EMD+SEM) vs GMT timings for the same data. All the 376 events including the main event faithfully follow the straight-line curve.
Revisiting the 1872 Owens Valley, California, Earthquake
Hough, S.E.; Hutton, K.
2008-01-01
The 26 March 1872 Owens Valley earthquake is among the largest historical earthquakes in California. The felt area and maximum fault displacements have long been regarded as comparable to, if not greater than, those of the great San Andreas fault earthquakes of 1857 and 1906, but mapped surface ruptures of the latter two events were 2-3 times longer than that inferred for the 1872 rupture. The preferred magnitude estimate of the Owens Valley earthquake has thus been 7.4, based largely on the geological evidence. Reinterpreting macroseismic accounts of the Owens Valley earthquake, we infer generally lower intensity values than those estimated in earlier studies. Nonetheless, as recognized in the early twentieth century, the effects of this earthquake were still generally more dramatic at regional distances than the macroseismic effects from the 1906 earthquake, with light damage to masonry buildings at (nearest-fault) distances as large as 400 km. Macroseismic observations thus suggest a magnitude greater than that of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, which appears to be at odds with geological observations. However, while the mapped rupture length of the Owens Valley earthquake is relatively low, the average slip was high. The surface rupture was also complex and extended over multiple fault segments. It was first mapped in detail over a century after the earthquake occurred, and recent evidence suggests it might have been longer than earlier studies indicated. Our preferred magnitude estimate is Mw 7.8-7.9, values that we show are consistent with the geological observations. The results of our study suggest that either the Owens Valley earthquake was larger than the 1906 San Francisco earthquake or that, by virtue of source properties and/or propagation effects, it produced systematically higher ground motions at regional distances. The latter possibility implies that some large earthquakes in California will generate significantly larger ground motions than San
Analysis of pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies before the global M = 7.0+ earthquakes in 2010
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yao, Y. B.; Chen, P.; Zhang, S.; Chen, J. J.; Yan, F.; Peng, W. F.
2012-03-01
The pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies that occurred before the global M = 7.0+ earthquakes in 2010 are investigated using the total electron content (TEC) from the global ionosphere map (GIM). We analyze the possible causes of the ionospheric anomalies based on the space environment and magnetic field status. Results show that some anomalies are related to the earthquakes. By analyzing the time of occurrence, duration, and spatial distribution of these ionospheric anomalies, a number of new conclusions are drawn, as follows: earthquake-related ionospheric anomalies are not bound to appear; both positive and negative anomalies are likely to occur; and the earthquake-related ionospheric anomalies discussed in the current study occurred 0-2 days before the associated earthquakes and in the afternoon to sunset (i.e. between 12:00 and 20:00 local time). Pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies occur mainly in areas near the epicenter. However, the maximum affected area in the ionosphere does not coincide with the vertical projection of the epicenter of the subsequent earthquake. The directions deviating from the epicenters do not follow a fixed rule. The corresponding ionospheric effects can also be observed in the magnetically conjugated region. However, the probability of the anomalies appearance and extent of the anomalies in the magnetically conjugated region are smaller than the anomalies near the epicenter. Deep-focus earthquakes may also exhibit very significant pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies.
Security Implications of Induced Earthquakes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jha, B.; Rao, A.
2016-12-01
The increase in earthquakes induced or triggered by human activities motivates us to research how a malicious entity could weaponize earthquakes to cause damage. Specifically, we explore the feasibility of controlling the location, timing and magnitude of an earthquake by activating a fault via injection and production of fluids into the subsurface. Here, we investigate the relationship between the magnitude and trigger time of an induced earthquake to the well-to-fault distance. The relationship between magnitude and distance is important to determine the farthest striking distance from which one could intentionally activate a fault to cause certain level of damage. We use our novel computational framework to model the coupled multi-physics processes of fluid flow and fault poromechanics. We use synthetic models representative of the New Madrid Seismic Zone and the San Andreas Fault Zone to assess the risk in the continental US. We fix injection and production flow rates of the wells and vary their locations. We simulate injection-induced Coulomb destabilization of faults and evolution of fault slip under quasi-static deformation. We find that the effect of distance on the magnitude and trigger time is monotonic, nonlinear, and time-dependent. Evolution of the maximum Coulomb stress on the fault provides insights into the effect of the distance on rupture nucleation and propagation. The damage potential of induced earthquakes can be maintained even at longer distances because of the balance between pressure diffusion and poroelastic stress transfer mechanisms. We conclude that computational modeling of induced earthquakes allows us to measure feasibility of weaponzing earthquakes and developing effective defense mechanisms against such attacks.
Re-evaluation of the 1976 Guatemala earthquake taking into account the environmental effects
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Porfido, Sabina; Esposito, Eliana; Spiga, Efisio; Sacchi, Marco; Molisso, Flavia; Mazzola, Salvatore
2014-05-01
Guatemala is one of the most seismically active countries in Central America.The largest earthquakes are produced by along the subduction zone of the Cocos and Caribbean plates in the Middle America Trench in the Pacific Ocean. Large earthquakes are also triggered along the boundary between the North American and the Caribbean plates, defined by a zone of large left lateral strike-slip faults that run through Guatemala from the Swan Fracture Zone in the Caribbean Sea. The earthquakes generated along these transcurrent faults, although less frequent, have a great importance to seismic hazard in Central America, more than the subduction-related earthquakes, because of their shallow ipocenters and the proximity of many cities and villages to these active structures. The most destructive event in this region was the earthquake occurred on 4, February 1976 in Guatemala, associated with the Motagua fault, causing 23 000 deaths, and 77 200 injuries. This study attempts at reconstructing the coseismic effects on the environment, to better assess the intensities according to the ESI scale 2007. For the Guatemala 1976 earthquake (M=7,5), the original scientific seismic, geological and macroseismic reports have been reviewed in order to highlight effects on natural environment. The maximum estimated intensity was IX MM in Gualan, in the Mixco area and in the centre of Guatemala City. Intensities value were underestimated despite there was a high level of damages, in fact several towns and villages were totally destroyed and although the earthquake triggered very large and spectacular primary and secondary ground effects. On the basis of all the gathered information has been possible to detect and to localize coseismic environmental effects, and classify them into six main types: surface faulting, slope movements, ground cracks, ground settlements, hydrological changes and tsunami. Primary effects was identified in the Motagua Valley and the mountainous area W of the valley, a
Hogg, Daniel; Kingham, Simon; Wilson, Thomas M; Ardagh, Michael
2016-09-01
This study investigates the effects of disruptions to different community environments, community resilience and cumulated felt earthquake intensities on yearly mood and anxiety symptom treatments from the New Zealand Ministry of Health's administrative databases between September 2009 and August 2012. The sample includes 172,284 long-term residents from different Christchurch communities. Living in a better physical environment was associated with lower mood and anxiety treatment rates after the beginning of the Canterbury earthquake sequence whereas an inverse effect could be found for social community environment and community resilience. These results may be confounded by pre-existing patterns, as well as intensified treatment-seeking behaviour and intervention programmes in severely affected areas. Nevertheless, the findings indicate that adverse mental health outcomes can be found in communities with worse physical but stronger social environments or community resilience post-disaster. Also, they do not necessarily follow felt intensities since cumulative earthquake intensity did not show a significant effect. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A revised “earthquake report” questionaire
Stover, C.; Reagor, G.; Simon, R.
1976-01-01
The U.S geological Survey is responsible for conducting intensity and damage surveys following felt or destructive earthquakes in the United States. Shortly after a felt or damaging earthquake occurs, a canvass of the affected area is made. Specially developed questionnaires are mailed to volunteer observers located within the estimated felt area. These questionnaires, "Earthquake Reports," are filled out by the observers and returned to the Survey's National Earthquake Information Service, which is located in Colorado. They are then evaluated, and, based on answers to questions about physical effects seen or felt, each canvassed location is assigned to the various locations, they are plotted on an intensity distribution map. When all of the intensity data have been plotted, isoseismals can then be contoured through places where equal intensity was experienced. The completed isoseismal map yields a detailed picture of the earthquake, its effects, and its felt area. All of the data and maps are published quarterly in a U.S Geological Survey Circular series entitled "Earthquakes in the United States".
The finite, kinematic rupture properties of great-sized earthquakes since 1990
Hayes, Gavin
2017-01-01
Here, I present a database of >160 finite fault models for all earthquakes of M 7.5 and above since 1990, created using a consistent modeling approach. The use of a common approach facilitates easier comparisons between models, and reduces uncertainties that arise when comparing models generated by different authors, data sets and modeling techniques.I use this database to verify published scaling relationships, and for the first time show a clear and intriguing relationship between maximum potency (the product of slip and area) and average potency for a given earthquake. This relationship implies that earthquakes do not reach the potential size given by the tectonic load of a fault (sometimes called “moment deficit,” calculated via a plate rate over time since the last earthquake, multiplied by geodetic fault coupling). Instead, average potency (or slip) scales with but is less than maximum potency (dictated by tectonic loading). Importantly, this relationship facilitates a more accurate assessment of maximum earthquake size for a given fault segment, and thus has implications for long-term hazard assessments. The relationship also suggests earthquake cycles may not completely reset after a large earthquake, and thus repeat rates of such events may appear shorter than is expected from tectonic loading. This in turn may help explain the phenomenon of “earthquake super-cycles” observed in some global subduction zones.
Post, Austin
1967-01-01
The 1964 Alaska earthquake occurred in a region where there are many hundreds of glaciers, large and small. Aerial photographic investigations indicate that no snow and ice avalanches of large size occurred on glaciers despite the violent shaking. Rockslide avalanches extended onto the glaciers in many localities, seven very large ones occurring in the Copper River region 160 kilometers east of the epicenter. Some of these avalanches traveled several kilometers at low gradients; compressed air may have provided a lubricating layer. If long-term changes in glaciers due to tectonic changes in altitude and slope occur, they will probably be very small. No evidence of large-scale dynamic response of any glacier to earthquake shaking or avalanche loading was found in either the Chugach or Kenai Mountains 16 months after the 1964 earthquake, nor was there any evidence of surges (rapid advances) as postulated by the Earthquake-Advance Theory of Tarr and Martin.
Bakun, William H.; Flores, Claudia H.; ten Brink, Uri S.
2012-01-01
Historical records indicate frequent seismic activity along the north-east Caribbean plate boundary over the past 500 years, particularly on the island of Hispaniola. We use accounts of historical earthquakes to assign intensities and the intensity assignments for the 2010 Haiti earthquakes to derive an intensity attenuation relation for Hispaniola. The intensity assignments and the attenuation relation are used in a grid search to find source locations and magnitudes that best fit the intensity assignments. Here we describe a sequence of devastating earthquakes on the Enriquillo fault system in the eighteenth century. An intensity magnitude MI 6.6 earthquake in 1701 occurred near the location of the 2010 Haiti earthquake, and the accounts of the shaking in the 1701 earthquake are similar to those of the 2010 earthquake. A series of large earthquakes migrating from east to west started with the 18 October 1751 MI 7.4–7.5 earthquake, probably located near the eastern end of the fault in the Dominican Republic, followed by the 21 November 1751 MI 6.6 earthquake near Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and the 3 June 1770 MI 7.5 earthquake west of the 2010 earthquake rupture. The 2010 Haiti earthquake may mark the beginning of a new cycle of large earthquakes on the Enriquillo fault system after 240 years of seismic quiescence. The entire Enriquillo fault system appears to be seismically active; Haiti and the Dominican Republic should prepare for future devastating earthquakes.
Defining "Acceptable Risk" for Earthquakes Worldwide
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tucker, B.
2001-05-01
The greatest and most rapidly growing earthquake risk for mortality is in developing countries. Further, earthquake risk management actions of the last 50 years have reduced the average lethality of earthquakes in earthquake-threatened industrialized countries. (This is separate from the trend of the increasing fiscal cost of earthquakes there.) Despite these clear trends, every new earthquake in developing countries is described in the media as a "wake up" call, announcing the risk these countries face. GeoHazards International (GHI) works at both the community and the policy levels to try to reduce earthquake risk. GHI reduces death and injury by helping vulnerable communities recognize their risk and the methods to manage it, by raising awareness of its risk, building local institutions to manage that risk, and strengthening schools to protect and train the community's future generations. At the policy level, GHI, in collaboration with research partners, is examining whether "acceptance" of these large risks by people in these countries and by international aid and development organizations explains the lack of activity in reducing these risks. The goal of this pilot project - The Global Earthquake Safety Initiative (GESI) - is to develop and evaluate a means of measuring the risk and the effectiveness of risk mitigation actions in the world's largest, most vulnerable cities: in short, to develop an earthquake risk index. One application of this index is to compare the risk and the risk mitigation effort of "comparable" cities. By this means, Lima, for example, can compare the risk of its citizens dying due to earthquakes with the risk of citizens in Santiago and Guayaquil. The authorities of Delhi and Islamabad can compare the relative risk from earthquakes of their school children. This index can be used to measure the effectiveness of alternate mitigation projects, to set goals for mitigation projects, and to plot progress meeting those goals. The preliminary
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria
2014-05-01
Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII
Time-dependent geoid anomalies at subduction zones due to the seismic cycle
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cambiotti, G.; Sabadini, R.; Yuen, D. A.
2018-01-01
We model the geoid anomalies excited during a megathrust earthquake cycle at subduction zones, including the interseismic phase and the contribution from the infinite series of previous earthquakes, within the frame of self-gravitating, spherically symmetric, compressible, viscoelastic Earth models. The fault cuts the whole 50 km lithosphere, dips 20°, and the slip amplitude, together with the length of the fault, are chosen in order to simulate an Mw = 9.0 earthquake, while the viscosity of the 170 km thick asthenosphere ranges from 1017 to 1020 Pa s. On the basis of a new analysis from the Correspondence Principle, we show that the geoid anomaly is characterized by a periodic anomaly due to the elastic and viscous contribution from past earthquakes and to the back-slip of the interseismic phase, and by a smaller static contribution from the steady-state response to the previous infinite earthquake cycles. For asthenospheric viscosities from 1017-1018 to 1019-1020 Pa s, the characteristic relaxation times of the Earth model change from shorter to longer timescales compared to the 400 yr earthquake recurrence time, which dampen the geoid anomaly for the higher asthenospheric viscosities, since the slower relaxation cannot contribute its whole strength within the interseismic cycle. The geoid anomaly pattern is characterized by a global, time-dependent positive upwarping of the geoid topography, involving the whole hanging wall and partially the footwall compared to the sharper elastic contribution, attaining, for a moment magnitude Mw = 9.0, amplitudes as high as 6.6 cm for the lowermost asthenospheric viscosities during the viscoelastic response compared to the elastic maximum of 3.8 cm. The geoid anomaly vanishes due to the back-slip of the interseismic phase, leading to its disappearance at the end of the cycle before the next earthquake. Our results are of importance for understanding the post-seismic and interseismic geoid patterns at subduction zones.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Brocher, T. M.; Garcia, S.; Aagaard, B. T.; Boatwright, J. J.; Dawson, T.; Hellweg, M.; Knudsen, K. L.; Perkins, J.; Schwartz, D. P.; Stoffer, P. W.; Zoback, M.
2008-12-01
Last October 21st marked the 140th anniversary of the M6.8 1868 Hayward Earthquake, the last damaging earthquake on the southern Hayward Fault. This anniversary was used to help publicize the seismic hazards associated with the fault because: (1) the past five such earthquakes on the Hayward Fault occurred about 140 years apart on average, and (2) the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault system is the most likely (with a 31 percent probability) fault in the Bay Area to produce a M6.7 or greater earthquake in the next 30 years. To promote earthquake awareness and preparedness, over 140 public and private agencies and companies and many individual joined the public-private nonprofit 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance (1868alliance.org). The Alliance sponsored many activities including a public commemoration at Mission San Jose in Fremont, which survived the 1868 earthquake. This event was followed by an earthquake drill at Bay Area schools involving more than 70,000 students. The anniversary prompted the Silver Sentinel, an earthquake response exercise based on the scenario of an earthquake on the Hayward Fault conducted by Bay Area County Offices of Emergency Services. 60 other public and private agencies also participated in this exercise. The California Seismic Safety Commission and KPIX (CBS affiliate) produced professional videos designed forschool classrooms promoting Drop, Cover, and Hold On. Starting in October 2007, the Alliance and the U.S. Geological Survey held a sequence of press conferences to announce the release of new research on the Hayward Fault as well as new loss estimates for a Hayward Fault earthquake. These included: (1) a ShakeMap for the 1868 Hayward earthquake, (2) a report by the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasting the number of employees, employers, and wages predicted to be within areas most strongly shaken by a Hayward Fault earthquake, (3) new estimates of the losses associated with a Hayward Fault earthquake, (4) new ground motion
Lack of Dependence of Dynamic Triggering on the Timing within the Seismic Cycle
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cattania, C.; McGuire, J. J.; Collins, J. A.
2009-12-01
Numerical models predict that dynamic triggering of earthquakes is more likely when faults are close to failure (e.g. late in their earthquake cycle), and laboratory experiments have supported this hypothesis. We attempted to test this idea by analysing data on three adjacent transform faults of the East Pacific Rise which have a relatively well defined, quasiperiodic seismic cycle with a median repeat time of 5 years. Moreover, the Gofar, Discovery and Quebrada transform faults share several seismicity properties with continental geothermal areas, including high geothermal gradients, high seismicity rates, and frequent earthquake swarms, that suggest they may be prone to dynamic triggering. We analyze an earthquake catalog of over 100,000 events recorded in 2008 by a network of 38 Ocean Bottom Seismometers. We extract Mw>6.3 mainshocks from the Global CMT catalog, and perform the β test for an array of time intervals covering from 5 hours before to 10 hours after the low-frequency Rayleigh wave arrival. To verify the presence of common seismicity patterns, β plots are also stacked for multiple earthquakes. We observe triggering after the May 12th Wenchuan earthquake. On the Quebrada transform a burst of seismicity starts during the wavetrain; in Gofar there is no response during the wave, but an increase in seismicity (β=5.08) starts about 2 h later; no triggering is visible on the Discovery fault. A Mw=6.0 earthquake ruptured the Gofar transform on September 18th, and triggered seismicity on Discovery: ~60 earthquakes (β=15.3), starting 1h after the wave arrival. We have no data from Quebrada for this period. Other instances of triggering are dubious. Stacked β plots suggest delayed triggering (Δt>1h) in Gofar and Discovery, but the statistical significance of these results is unclear. From a comparison of different fault segments, triggering does not appear to be more common at late stages in the seismic cycle. Instead, the events triggered by the largest
Earthquakes of the Nepal Himalaya: Towards a physical model of the seismic cycle
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ader, Thomas J.
fault. Interestingly, the mild waggle of stress induced by the monsoon rains is about the same size as that from solid-Earth tides which gently tug at the planets solid layers, but whereas changes in earthquake frequency correspond with the annually occurring monsoon, there is no such correlation with Earth tides, which oscillate back-and-forth twice a day. We therefore investigate the general response of the creeping and seismogenic parts of MHT to periodic stresses in order to link these observations to physical parameters. First, the response of the creeping part of the MHT is analyzed with a simple spring-and-slider system bearing rate-strengthening rheology, and we show that at the transition with the locked zone, where the friction becomes near velocity neutral, the response of the slip rate may be amplified at some periods, which values are analytically related to the physical parameters of the problem. Such predictions therefore hold the potential of constraining fault properties on the MHT, but still await observational counterparts to be applied, as nothing indicates that the variations of seismicity rate on the locked part of the MHT are the direct expressions of variations of the slip rate on its creeping part, and no variations of the slip rate have been singled out from the GPS measurements to this day. When shifting to the locked seismogenic part of the MHT, spring-and-slider models with rate-weakening rheology are insufficient to explain the contrasted responses of the seismicity to the periodic loads that tides and monsoon both place on the MHT. Instead, we resort to numerical simulations using the Boundary Integral CYCLes of Earthquakes algorithm and examine the response of a 2D finite fault embedded with a rate-weakening patch to harmonic stress perturbations of various periods. We show that such simulations are able to reproduce results consistent with a gradual amplification of sensitivity as the perturbing period get larger, up to a critical period
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yamada, T.; Ide, S.
2007-12-01
Earthquake early warning is an important and challenging issue for the reduction of the seismic damage, especially for the mitigation of human suffering. One of the most important problems in earthquake early warning systems is how immediately we can estimate the final size of an earthquake after we observe the ground motion. It is relevant to the problem whether the initial rupture of an earthquake has some information associated with its final size. Nakamura (1988) developed the Urgent Earthquake Detection and Alarm System (UrEDAS). It calculates the predominant period of the P wave (τp) and estimates the magnitude of an earthquake immediately after the P wave arrival from the value of τpmax, or the maximum value of τp. The similar approach has been adapted by other earthquake alarm systems (e.g., Allen and Kanamori (2003)). To investigate the characteristic of the parameter τp and the effect of the length of the time window (TW) in the τpmax calculation, we analyze the high-frequency recordings of earthquakes at very close distances in the Mponeng mine in South Africa. We find that values of τpmax have upper and lower limits. For larger earthquakes whose source durations are longer than TW, the values of τpmax have an upper limit which depends on TW. On the other hand, the values for smaller earthquakes have a lower limit which is proportional to the sampling interval. For intermediate earthquakes, the values of τpmax are close to their typical source durations. These two limits and the slope for intermediate earthquakes yield an artificial final size dependence of τpmax in a wide size range. The parameter τpmax is useful for detecting large earthquakes and broadcasting earthquake early warnings. However, its dependence on the final size of earthquakes does not suggest that the earthquake rupture is deterministic. This is because τpmax does not always have a direct relation to the physical quantities of an earthquake.
Earthquake Shaking - Finding the "Hot Spots"
Field, Edward; Jones, Lucile; Jordan, Tom; Benthien, Mark; Wald, Lisa
2001-01-01
A new Southern California Earthquake Center study has quantified how local geologic conditions affect the shaking experienced in an earthquake. The important geologic factors at a site are softness of the rock or soil near the surface and thickness of the sediments above hard bedrock. Even when these 'site effects' are taken into account, however, each earthquake exhibits unique 'hotspots' of anomalously strong shaking. Better predictions of strong ground shaking will therefore require additional geologic data and more comprehensive computer simulations of individual earthquakes.
Earthquake triggering by transient and static deformations
Gomberg, J.; Beeler, N.M.; Blanpied, M.L.; Bodin, P.
1998-01-01
Observational evidence for both static and transient near-field and far-field triggered seismicity are explained in terms of a frictional instability model, based on a single degree of freedom spring-slider system and rate- and state-dependent frictional constitutive equations. In this study a triggered earthquake is one whose failure time has been advanced by ??t (clock advance) due to a stress perturbation. Triggering stress perturbations considered include square-wave transients and step functions, analogous to seismic waves and coseismic static stress changes, respectively. Perturbations are superimposed on a constant background stressing rate which represents the tectonic stressing rate. The normal stress is assumed to be constant. Approximate, closed-form solutions of the rate-and-state equations are derived for these triggering and background loads, building on the work of Dieterich [1992, 1994]. These solutions can be used to simulate the effects of static and transient stresses as a function of amplitude, onset time t0, and in the case of square waves, duration. The accuracies of the approximate closed-form solutions are also evaluated with respect to the full numerical solution and t0. The approximate solutions underpredict the full solutions, although the difference decreases as t0, approaches the end of the earthquake cycle. The relationship between ??t and t0 differs for transient and static loads: a static stress step imposed late in the cycle causes less clock advance than an equal step imposed earlier, whereas a later applied transient causes greater clock advance than an equal one imposed earlier. For equal ??t, transient amplitudes must be greater than static loads by factors of several tens to hundreds depending on t0. We show that the rate-and-state model requires that the total slip at failure is a constant, regardless of the loading history. Thus a static load applied early in the cycle, or a transient applied at any time, reduces the stress
Charles Darwin's earthquake reports
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Galiev, Shamil
2010-05-01
As it is the 200th anniversary of Darwin's birth, 2009 has also been marked as 170 years since the publication of his book Journal of Researches. During the voyage Darwin landed at Valdivia and Concepcion, Chile, just before, during, and after a great earthquake, which demolished hundreds of buildings, killing and injuring many people. Land was waved, lifted, and cracked, volcanoes awoke and giant ocean waves attacked the coast. Darwin was the first geologist to observe and describe the effects of the great earthquake during and immediately after. These effects sometimes repeated during severe earthquakes; but great earthquakes, like Chile 1835, and giant earthquakes, like Chile 1960, are rare and remain completely unpredictable. This is one of the few areas of science, where experts remain largely in the dark. Darwin suggested that the effects were a result of ‘ …the rending of strata, at a point not very deep below the surface of the earth…' and ‘…when the crust yields to the tension, caused by its gradual elevation, there is a jar at the moment of rupture, and a greater movement...'. Darwin formulated big ideas about the earth evolution and its dynamics. These ideas set the tone for the tectonic plate theory to come. However, the plate tectonics does not completely explain why earthquakes occur within plates. Darwin emphasised that there are different kinds of earthquakes ‘...I confine the foregoing observations to the earthquakes on the coast of South America, or to similar ones, which seem generally to have been accompanied by elevation of the land. But, as we know that subsidence has gone on in other quarters of the world, fissures must there have been formed, and therefore earthquakes...' (we cite the Darwin's sentences following researchspace. auckland. ac. nz/handle/2292/4474). These thoughts agree with results of the last publications (see Nature 461, 870-872; 636-639 and 462, 42-43; 87-89). About 200 years ago Darwin gave oneself airs by the
Earthquake experience interference effects in a modified Stroop task: an ERP study.
Wei, Dongtao; Qiu, Jiang; Tu, Shen; Tian, Fang; Su, Yanhua; Luo, Yuejia
2010-05-03
The effects of the modified Stroop task on ERP were investigated in 20 subjects who had experienced the Sichuan earthquake and a matched control group. ERP data showed that Incongruent stimuli elicited a more negative ERP deflection (N300-450) than did Congruent stimuli between 300 and 450 ms post-stimulus in the earthquake group but not found in the control group, and the N300-450 might reflect conflict monitor (the information of color and meaning do not match) in the early phase of perception identification due to their sensitivity to the external stimulus. Then, Incongruent stimuli elicited a more negative ERP deflection than did Congruent stimuli between 450 and 650 ms post-stimulus in both the groups. Dipole source analysis showed that the N450-650 was mainly generated in the ACC contributed to this effect in the control group, which might be related to monitor and conflict resolution. However, in the earthquake group, the N450-650 was generated in the thalamus, which might be involved in inhibiting and compensating of the ACC which may be related to conflict resolution process. 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Beeler, Nicholas M.; Roeloffs, Evelyn A.; McCausland, Wendy
2013-01-01
Mazzotti and Adams (2004) estimated that rapid deep slip during typically two week long episodes beneath northern Washington and southern British Columbia increases the probability of a great Cascadia earthquake by 30–100 times relative to the probability during the ∼58 weeks between slip events. Because the corresponding absolute probability remains very low at ∼0.03% per week, their conclusion is that though it is more likely that a great earthquake will occur during a rapid slip event than during other times, a great earthquake is unlikely to occur during any particular rapid slip event. This previous estimate used a failure model in which great earthquakes initiate instantaneously at a stress threshold. We refine the estimate, assuming a delayed failure model that is based on laboratory‐observed earthquake initiation. Laboratory tests show that failure of intact rock in shear and the onset of rapid slip on pre‐existing faults do not occur at a threshold stress. Instead, slip onset is gradual and shows a damped response to stress and loading rate changes. The characteristic time of failure depends on loading rate and effective normal stress. Using this model, the probability enhancement during the period of rapid slip in Cascadia is negligible (<10%) for effective normal stresses of 10 MPa or more and only increases by 1.5 times for an effective normal stress of 1 MPa. We present arguments that the hypocentral effective normal stress exceeds 1 MPa. In addition, the probability enhancement due to rapid slip extends into the interevent period. With this delayed failure model for effective normal stresses greater than or equal to 50 kPa, it is more likely that a great earthquake will occur between the periods of rapid deep slip than during them. Our conclusion is that great earthquake occurrence is not significantly enhanced by episodic deep slip events.
Earthquake Clustering in Noisy Viscoelastic Systems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dicaprio, C. J.; Simons, M.; Williams, C. A.; Kenner, S. J.
2006-12-01
Geologic studies show evidence for temporal clustering of earthquakes on certain fault systems. Since post- seismic deformation may result in a variable loading rate on a fault throughout the inter-seismic period, it is reasonable to expect that the rheology of the non-seismogenic lower crust and mantle lithosphere may play a role in controlling earthquake recurrence times. Previously, the role of rheology of the lithosphere on the seismic cycle had been studied with a one-dimensional spring-dashpot-slider model (Kenner and Simons [2005]). In this study we use the finite element code PyLith to construct a two-dimensional continuum model a strike-slip fault in an elastic medium overlying one or more linear Maxwell viscoelastic layers loaded in the far field by a constant velocity boundary condition. Taking advantage of the linear properties of the model, we use the finite element solution to one earthquake as a spatio-temporal Green's function. Multiple Green's function solutions, scaled by the size of each earthquake, are then summed to form an earthquake sequence. When the shear stress on the fault reaches a predefined yield stress it is allowed to slip, relieving all accumulated shear stress. Random variation in the fault yield stress from one earthquake to the next results in a temporally clustered earthquake sequence. The amount of clustering depends on a non-dimensional number, W, called the Wallace number. For models with one viscoelastic layer, W is equal to the standard deviation of the earthquake stress drop divided by the viscosity times the tectonic loading rate. This definition of W is modified from the original one used in Kenner and Simons [2005] by using the standard deviation of the stress drop instead of the mean stress drop. We also use a new, more appropriate, metric to measure the amount of temporal clustering of the system. W is the ratio of the viscoelastic relaxation rate of the system to the tectonic loading rate of the system. For values of
Stress Regime in the Nepalese Himalaya from Recent Earthquakes.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pant, M.; Karplus, M. S.; Velasco, A. A.; Nabelek, J.; Kuna, V. M.; Ghosh, A.; Mendoza, M.; Adhikari, L. B.; Sapkota, S. N.; Klemperer, S. L.; Patlan, E.
2017-12-01
The two recent earthquakes, April 25, 2015 Mw 7.8 (Gorkha earthquake) and May 12, 2015 Mw 7.2, at the Indo-Eurasian plate margin killed thousands of people and caused billion dollars of property loss. In response to these events, we deployed a dense array of seismometers to record the aftershocks along Gorkha earthquake rupture area. Our network NAMASTE (Nepal Array Measuring Aftershock Seismicity Trailing Earthquake) included 45 different seismic stations (16 short period, 25 broadband, and 4 strong motion sensors) covering a large area from north-central Nepal to south of the Main Frontal Thrust at a spacing of 20 km. The instruments recorded aftershocks from June 2015 to May 2016. We used time domain short term average (STA) and long term average (LTA) algorithms (1/10s and 4/40s) respectively to detect the arrivals and then developed an earthquake catalog containing 9300 aftershocks. We are manually picking the P-wave first motion arrival polarity to develop a catalog of focal mechanisms for the larger magnitude (>M3.0) events with adequate (>10) arrivals. We hope to characterize the seismicity and stress mechanisms of the complex fault geometries in the Nepalese Himalaya and to address the geophysical processes controlling seismic cycles in the Indo-Eurasian plate margin.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Michel, Sylvain; Avouac, Jean-Philippe; Lapusta, Nadia; Jiang, Junle
2017-08-01
Megathrust earthquakes tend to be confined to fault areas locked in the interseismic period and often rupture them only partially. For example, during the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal, a slip pulse propagating along strike unzipped the bottom edge of the locked portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). The lower edge of the rupture produced dominant high-frequency (>1 Hz) radiation of seismic waves. We show that similar partial ruptures occur spontaneously in a simple dynamic model of earthquake sequences. The fault is governed by standard laboratory-based rate-and-state friction with the aging law and contains one homogenous velocity-weakening (VW) region embedded in a velocity-strengthening (VS) area. Our simulations incorporate inertial wave-mediated effects during seismic ruptures (they are thus fully dynamic) and account for all phases of the seismic cycle in a self-consistent way. Earthquakes nucleate at the edge of the VW area and partial ruptures tend to stay confined within this zone of higher prestress, producing pulse-like ruptures that propagate along strike. The amplitude of the high-frequency sources is enhanced in the zone of higher, heterogeneous stress at the edge of the VW area.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Michel, S. G. R. M.; Avouac, J. P.; Lapusta, N.; Jiang, J.
2017-12-01
Megathrust earthquakes tend to be confined to fault areas locked in the interseismic period and often rupture them only partially. For example, during the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal, a slip pulse propagating along strike unzipped the bottom edge of the locked portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). The lower edge of the rupture produced dominant high-frequency (>1 Hz) radiation of seismic waves. We show that similar partial ruptures occur spontaneously in a simple dynamic model of earthquake sequences. The fault is governed by standard laboratory-based rate-and-state friction with the ageing law and contains one homogenous velocity-weakening (VW) region embedded in a velocity-strengthening (VS) area. Our simulations incorporate inertial wave-mediated effects during seismic ruptures (they are thus fully dynamic) and account for all phases of the seismic cycle in a self-consistent way. Earthquakes nucleate at the edge of the VW area and partial ruptures tend to stay confined within this zone of higher prestress, producing pulse-like ruptures that propagate along strike. The amplitude of the high-frequency sources is enhanced in the zone of higher, heterogeneous stress at the edge of the VW area.
Strong ground motion prediction using virtual earthquakes.
Denolle, M A; Dunham, E M; Prieto, G A; Beroza, G C
2014-01-24
Sedimentary basins increase the damaging effects of earthquakes by trapping and amplifying seismic waves. Simulations of seismic wave propagation in sedimentary basins capture this effect; however, there exists no method to validate these results for earthquakes that have not yet occurred. We present a new approach for ground motion prediction that uses the ambient seismic field. We apply our method to a suite of magnitude 7 scenario earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault and compare our ground motion predictions with simulations. Both methods find strong amplification and coupling of source and structure effects, but they predict substantially different shaking patterns across the Los Angeles Basin. The virtual earthquake approach provides a new approach for predicting long-period strong ground motion.
The Damaging Effects of Earthquake Excitation on Concrete Cooling Towers
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Abedi-Nik, Farhad; Sabouri-Ghomi, Saeid
2008-07-01
Reinforced concrete cooling towers of hyperbolic shell configuration find widespread application in utilities engaged in the production of electric power. In design of critical civil infrastructure of this type, it is imperative to consider all the possible loading conditions that the cooling tower may experience, an important loading condition in many countries is that of the earthquake excitation, whose influence on the integrity and stability of cooling towers is profound. Previous researches have shown that the columns supporting a cooling tower are sensitive to earthquake forces, as they are heavily loaded elements that do not possess high ductility, and understanding the behavior of columns under earthquake excitation is vital in structural design because they provide the load path for the self weight of the tower shell. This paper presents the results of a finite element investigation of a representative "dry" cooling tower, using realistic horizontal and vertical acceleration data obtained from the recent and widely-reported Tabas, Naghan and Bam earthquakes in Iran. The results of both linear and nonlinear analyses are reported in the paper, the locations of plastic hinges within the supporting columns are identified and the ramifications of the plastic hinges on the stability of the cooling tower are assessed. It is concluded that for the (typical) cooling tower configuration analyzed, the columns that are instrumental in providing a load path are influenced greatly by earthquake loading, and for the earthquake data used in this study the representative cooling tower would be rendered unstable and would collapse under the earthquake forces considered.
The Damaging Effects of Earthquake Excitation on Concrete Cooling Towers
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Abedi-Nik, Farhad; Sabouri-Ghomi, Saeid
2008-07-08
Reinforced concrete cooling towers of hyperbolic shell configuration find widespread application in utilities engaged in the production of electric power. In design of critical civil infrastructure of this type, it is imperative to consider all the possible loading conditions that the cooling tower may experience, an important loading condition in many countries is that of the earthquake excitation, whose influence on the integrity and stability of cooling towers is profound. Previous researches have shown that the columns supporting a cooling tower are sensitive to earthquake forces, as they are heavily loaded elements that do not possess high ductility, and understandingmore » the behavior of columns under earthquake excitation is vital in structural design because they provide the load path for the self weight of the tower shell. This paper presents the results of a finite element investigation of a representative 'dry' cooling tower, using realistic horizontal and vertical acceleration data obtained from the recent and widely-reported Tabas, Naghan and Bam earthquakes in Iran. The results of both linear and nonlinear analyses are reported in the paper, the locations of plastic hinges within the supporting columns are identified and the ramifications of the plastic hinges on the stability of the cooling tower are assessed. It is concluded that for the (typical) cooling tower configuration analyzed, the columns that are instrumental in providing a load path are influenced greatly by earthquake loading, and for the earthquake data used in this study the representative cooling tower would be rendered unstable and would collapse under the earthquake forces considered.« less
The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989: Earthquake Occurrence
Coordinated by Bakun, William H.; Prescott, William H.
1993-01-01
Professional Paper 1550 seeks to understand the M6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake itself. It examines how the fault that generated the earthquake ruptured, searches for and evaluates precursors that may have indicated an earthquake was coming, reviews forecasts of the earthquake, and describes the geology of the earthquake area and the crustal forces that affect this geology. Some significant findings were: * Slip during the earthquake occurred on 35 km of fault at depths ranging from 7 to 20 km. Maximum slip was approximately 2.3 m. The earthquake may not have released all of the strain stored in rocks next to the fault and indicates a potential for another damaging earthquake in the Santa Cruz Mountains in the near future may still exist. * The earthquake involved a large amount of uplift on a dipping fault plane. Pre-earthquake conventional wisdom was that large earthquakes in the Bay area occurred as horizontal displacements on predominantly vertical faults. * The fault segment that ruptured approximately coincided with a fault segment identified in 1988 as having a 30% probability of generating a M7 earthquake in the next 30 years. This was one of more than 20 relevant earthquake forecasts made in the 83 years before the earthquake. * Calculations show that the Loma Prieta earthquake changed stresses on nearby faults in the Bay area. In particular, the earthquake reduced stresses on the Hayward Fault which decreased the frequency of small earthquakes on it. * Geological and geophysical mapping indicate that, although the San Andreas Fault can be mapped as a through going fault in the epicentral region, the southwest dipping Loma Prieta rupture surface is a separate fault strand and one of several along this part of the San Andreas that may be capable of generating earthquakes.
Effects of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake on VLBI Geode- tic Measurements
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
MacMillan, D.; Behrend, D.; Kurihara, S.
2012-12-01
The VLBI antenna TSUKUB32 at Tsukuba, Japan observes in 24-hour observing sessions once per week with the R1 operational network and on additional days with other networks on a more irregular basis. Further, the antenna is an endpoint of the single-baseline, 1-hr Intensive Int2 sessions observed on the weekends for the determination of UT1. TSUKUB32 returned to normal operational observing one month after the earthquake. The antenna is 160 km west and 240 km south of the epicenter of the Tohoku earthquake. We looked at the transient behavior of the TSUKUB32 position time series following the earthquake and found that significant deformation is continuing. The eastward rate relative to the long-term rate prior to the earthquake was about 20 cm/yr four months after the earthquake and 9 cm/yr after one year. The VLBI series agrees closely with the corresponding JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) GPS series measured by the co-located GPS antenna TSUK. The co-seismic UEN displacement at Tsukuba as determined by VLBI was (-90 mm, 640 mm, 44 mm). We examined the effect of the variation of the TSUKUB32 position on EOP estimates and then used the GPS data to correct its position for the estimation of UT1 in the Tsukuba-Wettzell Int2 Intensive experiments. For this purpose and to provide operational UT1, the IVS scheduled a series of weekend Intensive sessions observing on the Kokee-Wettzell baseline immediately before each of the two Tsukuba-Wettzell Intensive sessions. Comparisons between the UT1 estimates from these weekend sessions and the USNO (United States Naval Observatory) combination series were used to validate the GPS correction to the TSUKUB32 position.
PAGER--Rapid assessment of an earthquake?s impact
Wald, D.J.; Jaiswal, K.; Marano, K.D.; Bausch, D.; Hearne, M.
2010-01-01
PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response) is an automated system that produces content concerning the impact of significant earthquakes around the world, informing emergency responders, government and aid agencies, and the media of the scope of the potential disaster. PAGER rapidly assesses earthquake impacts by comparing the population exposed to each level of shaking intensity with models of economic and fatality losses based on past earthquakes in each country or region of the world. Earthquake alerts--which were formerly sent based only on event magnitude and location, or population exposure to shaking--now will also be generated based on the estimated range of fatalities and economic losses.
2013-01-01
Background Sichuan is a province in China with an extensive history of earthquakes. Recent earthquakes, including the Lushan earthquake in 2013, have resulted in thousands of people losing their homes and their families. However, there is a research gap on the efficiency of government support policies. Therefore, this study develops a new perspective to study the health of earthquake survivors, based on the effect of post-earthquake rescue policies on health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of survivors of the Sichuan earthquake. Methods This study uses data from a survey conducted in five hard-hit counties (Wenchuan, Qingchuan, Mianzhu, Lushan, and Dujiangyan) in Sichuan in 2013. A total of 2,000 questionnaires were distributed, and 1,672 were returned; the response rate was 83.6%. Results Results of the rescue policies scale and Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 36 (SF-36) scale passed the reliability test. The confirmatory factor analysis model showed that the physical component summary (PCS) directly affected the mental component summary (MCS). The results of structural equation model regarding the effects of rescue policies on HRQOL showed that the path coefficients of six policies (education, orphans, employment, poverty, legal, and social rescue policies) to the PCS of survivors were all positive and passed the test of significance. Finally, although only the path coefficient of the educational rescue policy to the MCS of survivors was positive and passed the test of significance, the other five policies affected the MCS indirectly through the PCS. Conclusions The general HRQOL of survivors is not ideal; the survivors showed a low satisfaction with the post-earthquake rescue policies. Further, the six post-earthquake rescue policies significantly improved the HRQOL of survivors and directly affected the promotion of the PCS of survivors. Aside from the educational rescue policy, all other policies affected the MCS indirectly through the PCS. This finding
Liang, Ying; Wang, Xiukun
2013-10-29
Sichuan is a province in China with an extensive history of earthquakes. Recent earthquakes, including the Lushan earthquake in 2013, have resulted in thousands of people losing their homes and their families. However, there is a research gap on the efficiency of government support policies. Therefore, this study develops a new perspective to study the health of earthquake survivors, based on the effect of post-earthquake rescue policies on health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of survivors of the Sichuan earthquake. This study uses data from a survey conducted in five hard-hit counties (Wenchuan, Qingchuan, Mianzhu, Lushan, and Dujiangyan) in Sichuan in 2013. A total of 2,000 questionnaires were distributed, and 1,672 were returned; the response rate was 83.6%. Results of the rescue policies scale and Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 36 (SF-36) scale passed the reliability test. The confirmatory factor analysis model showed that the physical component summary (PCS) directly affected the mental component summary (MCS). The results of structural equation model regarding the effects of rescue policies on HRQOL showed that the path coefficients of six policies (education, orphans, employment, poverty, legal, and social rescue policies) to the PCS of survivors were all positive and passed the test of significance. Finally, although only the path coefficient of the educational rescue policy to the MCS of survivors was positive and passed the test of significance, the other five policies affected the MCS indirectly through the PCS. The general HRQOL of survivors is not ideal; the survivors showed a low satisfaction with the post-earthquake rescue policies. Further, the six post-earthquake rescue policies significantly improved the HRQOL of survivors and directly affected the promotion of the PCS of survivors. Aside from the educational rescue policy, all other policies affected the MCS indirectly through the PCS. This finding indicates relatively large differences in
Earthquake-driven erosion of organic carbon at the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, G.; West, A. J.; Hara, E. K.; Hammond, D. E.; Hilton, R. G.
2016-12-01
Large earthquakes can trigger massive landsliding that erodes particulate organic carbon (POC) from vegetation, soil and bedrocks, potentially linking seismotectonics to the global carbon cycle. Recent work (Wang et al., 2016, Geology) has highlighted a dramatic increase in riverine export of biospheric POC following the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake, in the steep Longmen Shan mountain range at the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. However, a complete, source-to-sink picture of POC erosion after the earthquake is still missing. Here we track POC transfer across the Longmen Shan range from high mountains to the downstream Zipingpu reservoir where riverine-exported POC has been trapped. Building on the work of Wang et al. (2016), who measured the compositions and fluxes of riverine POC, this study is focused on constraining the source and fate of the eroded POC after the earthquake. We have sampled landslide deposits and river sediment, and we have cored the Zipingpu reservoir, following a source-to-sink sampling strategy. We measured POC compositions and grain size of the sediment samples, mapped landslide-mobilized POC using maps of landslide inventory and biomass, and tracked POC loading from landslides to the reservoir sediment to constrain the fate of eroded OC. Constraints on carbon sources, fluxes and fate provide the foundation for constructing a post-earthquake POC budget. This work highlights the role of earthquakes in the mobilization and burial of POC, providing new insight into mechanisms linking tectonics and the carbon cycle and building understanding needed to interpret past seismicity from sedimentary archives.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
1979-01-01
During NASA's Apollo program, it was necessary to subject the mammoth Saturn V launch vehicle to extremely forceful vibrations to assure the moonbooster's structural integrity in flight. Marshall Space Flight Center assigned vibration testing to a contractor, the Scientific Services and Systems Group of Wyle Laboratories, Norco, California. Wyle-3S, as the group is known, built a large facility at Huntsville, Alabama, and equipped it with an enormously forceful shock and vibration system to simulate the liftoff stresses the Saturn V would encounter. Saturn V is no longer in service, but Wyle-3S has found spinoff utility for its vibration facility. It is now being used to simulate earthquake effects on various kinds of equipment, principally equipment intended for use in nuclear power generation. Government regulations require that such equipment demonstrate its ability to survive earthquake conditions. In upper left photo, Wyle3S is preparing to conduct an earthquake test on a 25ton diesel generator built by Atlas Polar Company, Ltd., Toronto, Canada, for emergency use in a Canadian nuclear power plant. Being readied for test in the lower left photo is a large circuit breaker to be used by Duke Power Company, Charlotte, North Carolina. Electro-hydraulic and electro-dynamic shakers in and around the pit simulate earthquake forces.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
OpršAl, Ivo; FäH, Donat; Mai, P. Martin; Giardini, Domenico
2005-04-01
The Basel earthquake of 18 October 1356 is considered one of the most serious earthquakes in Europe in recent centuries (I0 = IX, M ≈ 6.5-6.9). In this paper we present ground motion simulations for earthquake scenarios for the city of Basel and its vicinity. The numerical modeling combines the finite extent pseudodynamic and kinematic source models with complex local structure in a two-step hybrid three-dimensional (3-D) finite difference (FD) method. The synthetic seismograms are accurate in the frequency band 0-2.2 Hz. The 3-D FD is a linear explicit displacement formulation using an irregular rectangular grid including topography. The finite extent rupture model is adjacent to the free surface because the fault has been recognized through trenching on the Reinach fault. We test two source models reminiscent of past earthquakes (the 1999 Athens and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake) to represent Mw ≈ 5.9 and Mw ≈ 6.5 events that occur approximately to the south of Basel. To compare the effect of the same wave field arriving at the site from other directions, we considered the same sources placed east and west of the city. The local structural model is determined from the area's recently established P and S wave velocity structure and includes topography. The selected earthquake scenarios show strong ground motion amplification with respect to a bedrock site, which is in contrast to previous 2-D simulations for the same area. In particular, we found that the edge effects from the 3-D structural model depend strongly on the position of the earthquake source within the modeling domain.
Effects of Breathing-Based Meditation on Earthquake-Affected Health Professionals.
Iwakuma, Miho; Oshita, Daien; Yamamoto, Akihiro; Urushibara-Miyachi, Yuka
On March 11, 2013, the Great East Japan Earthquake (magnitude 9) hit the northern part of Japan (Tohoku), killing more than 15 000 people and leaving long-lasting scars, including psychological damage among evacuees, some of whom were health professionals. Little is known about meditation efficacy on disaster-affected health professionals. The present study investigated the effects of breathing-based meditation on seminar participants who were health professionals who had survived the earthquake. This study employed a mixed methods approach, using both survey data and handwritten qualitative data. Quantitative results of pre- and postmeditation practice indicated that all mood scales (anger, confusion, depression, fatigue, strain, and vigor) were significantly improved (N = 17). Qualitative results revealed several common themes (emancipation from chronic and bodily senses; holistic sense: transcending mind-body; re-turning an axis in life through reflection, self-control, and/or gratitude; meditation into mundane, everyday life; and coming out of pain in the aftermath of the earthquake) that had emerged as expressions of participant meditation experiences. Following the 45-minute meditation session, the present study participants reported improvements in all psychological states (anger, confusion, depression, fatigue, strain, and vigor) in the quantitative portion, which indicated efficacy of the meditation. Our analysis of the qualitative portion revealed what and how participants felt during meditating.
Site Effects Study In Athens (greece) Using The 7th September 1999 Earthquake Aftershock Sequence
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Serpetsidaki, A.; Sokos, E.
On 7 September 1999 at 11:56:50 GMT, an earthquake of Mw=5.9 occurred at Athens capital of Greece. The epicenter was located in the Northwest area of Parnitha Moun- tain at 18km distance from the city centre. This earthquake was one of the most de- structive in Greece during the modern times. The intensity of the earthquake reached IX in the Northwest territories of the city and caused the death of 143 people and seri- ous structural damage in many buildings. On the 13th of September the Seismological Laboratory of Patras University, installed a seismic network of 30 stations in order to observe the evolution of the aftershock sequence. This temporary seismic network remained in the area of Attika for 50 days and recorded a significant part of the af- tershock sequence. In this paper we use the high quality recordings of this network to investigate the influence of the surface geology to the seismic motion, on sites within the epicentral area, which suffered the most during this earthquake. We applied the horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) spectral ratio method on noise and on earthquake records and the obtained results exhibit very good agreement. Finally we compare the results with the geological conditions of the study area and the damage distribution. Most of the obtained amplification levels were low with an exemption in the site of Ano Liosia were a significant amount of damage was observed and the results indicate that the earthquake motion was amplified four times. Based on the above we conclude that the damages in the city of Athens were due to source effects rather than site effects.
The effect of segmented fault zones on earthquake rupture propagation and termination
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Huang, Y.
2017-12-01
A fundamental question in earthquake source physics is what can control the nucleation and termination of an earthquake rupture. Besides stress heterogeneities and variations in frictional properties, damaged fault zones (DFZs) that surround major strike-slip faults can contribute significantly to earthquake rupture propagation. Previous earthquake rupture simulations usually characterize DFZs as several-hundred-meter-wide layers with lower seismic velocities than host rocks, and find earthquake ruptures in DFZs can exhibit slip pulses and oscillating rupture speeds that ultimately enhance high-frequency ground motions. However, real DFZs are more complex than the uniform low-velocity structures, and show along-strike variations of damages that may be correlated with historical earthquake ruptures. These segmented structures can either prohibit or assist rupture propagation and significantly affect the final sizes of earthquakes. For example, recent dense array data recorded at the San Jacinto fault zone suggests the existence of three prominent DFZs across the Anza seismic gap and the south section of the Clark branch, while no prominent DFZs were identified near the ends of the Anza seismic gap. To better understand earthquake rupture in segmented fault zones, we will present dynamic rupture simulations that calculate the time-varying rupture process physically by considering the interactions between fault stresses, fault frictional properties, and material heterogeneities. We will show that whether an earthquake rupture can break through the intact rock outside the DFZ depend on the nucleation size of the earthquake and the rupture propagation distance in the DFZ. Moreover, material properties of the DFZ, stress conditions along the fault, and friction properties of the fault also have a critical impact on rupture propagation and termination. We will also present scenarios of San Jacinto earthquake ruptures and show the parameter space that is favorable for
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wedmore, L. N. J.; Faure Walker, J. P.; Roberts, G. P.; Sammonds, P. R.; McCaffrey, K. J. W.; Cowie, P. A.
2017-07-01
Current studies of fault interaction lack sufficiently long earthquake records and measurements of fault slip rates over multiple seismic cycles to fully investigate the effects of interseismic loading and coseismic stress changes on the surrounding fault network. We model elastic interactions between 97 faults from 30 earthquakes since 1349 A.D. in central Italy to investigate the relative importance of co-seismic stress changes versus interseismic stress accumulation for earthquake occurrence and fault interaction. This region has an exceptionally long, 667 year record of historical earthquakes and detailed constraints on the locations and slip rates of its active normal faults. Of 21 earthquakes since 1654, 20 events occurred on faults where combined coseismic and interseismic loading stresses were positive even though 20% of all faults are in "stress shadows" at any one time. Furthermore, the Coulomb stress on the faults that experience earthquakes is statistically different from a random sequence of earthquakes in the region. We show how coseismic Coulomb stress changes can alter earthquake interevent times by 103 years, and fault length controls the intensity of this effect. Static Coulomb stress changes cause greater interevent perturbations on shorter faults in areas characterized by lower strain (or slip) rates. The exceptional duration and number of earthquakes we model enable us to demonstrate the importance of combining long earthquake records with detailed knowledge of fault geometries, slip rates, and kinematics to understand the impact of stress changes in complex networks of active faults.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ma, S.
2011-12-01
Low-velocity fault zones have long been recognized for crustal earthquakes by using fault-zone trapped waves and geodetic observations on land. However, the most pronounced low-velocity fault zones are probably in the subduction zones where sediments on the seafloor are being continuously subducted. In this study I focus on shallow subduction zone earthquakes; these earthquakes pose a serious threat to human society in their ability in generating large tsunamis. Numerous observations indicate that these earthquakes have unusually long rupture durations, low rupture velocities, and/or small stress drops near the trench. However, the underlying physics is unclear. I will use dynamic rupture simulations with a finite-element method to investigate the dynamic stress evolution on faults induced by both sediments and free surface, and its relations with rupture velocity and slip. I will also explore the effect of off-fault yielding of sediments on the rupture characteristics and seafloor deformation. As shown in Ma and Beroza (2008), the more compliant hanging wall combined with free surface greatly increases the strength drop and slip near the trench. Sediments in the subduction zone likely have a significant role in the rupture dynamics of shallow subduction zone earthquakes and tsunami generation.
Operational earthquake forecasting can enhance earthquake preparedness
Jordan, T.H.; Marzocchi, W.; Michael, A.J.; Gerstenberger, M.C.
2014-01-01
We cannot yet predict large earthquakes in the short term with much reliability and skill, but the strong clustering exhibited in seismic sequences tells us that earthquake probabilities are not constant in time; they generally rise and fall over periods of days to years in correlation with nearby seismic activity. Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about these time‐dependent probabilities to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The goal of OEF is to inform the decisions that people and organizations must continually make to mitigate seismic risk and prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes on time scales from days to decades. To fulfill this role, OEF must provide a complete description of the seismic hazard—ground‐motion exceedance probabilities as well as short‐term rupture probabilities—in concert with the long‐term forecasts of probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis (PSHA).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
ST Fleur, S.; Courboulex, F.; Bertrand, E.; Deschamps, A.; Mercier De Lepinay, B. F.; Boisson, D.; Prepetit, C.; Hough, S. E.
2014-12-01
The Haitian earthquake of 12 January 2010 (Mw=7) caused an unprecedented disaster in Port-au-Prince as well as in smaller cities close to the epicenter. The extent of damage appears to be initially attributed to the proximity of the earthquake in Port-au-Prince, the extreme vulnerability of many structures, and a high population density. However, the damage distribution for this earthquake suggests a general correlation of damage with small-scale topographical features and local geological structure. The main objective of this work is to investigate site effects in the city of Port-au-Prince. It is also to better define the response of different sites to earthquakes and establish transfer functions between each site and a particular site defined as a reference site. Specific soil columns is determined in the vicinity of each station in order to carry out 1D simulations of soil response at these sites. About 90 earthquakes (2
Prediction of earthquake-triggered landslide event sizes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Braun, Anika; Havenith, Hans-Balder; Schlögel, Romy
2016-04-01
Seismically induced landslides are a major environmental effect of earthquakes, which may significantly contribute to related losses. Moreover, in paleoseismology landslide event sizes are an important proxy for the estimation of the intensity and magnitude of past earthquakes and thus allowing us to improve seismic hazard assessment over longer terms. Not only earthquake intensity, but also factors such as the fault characteristics, topography, climatic conditions and the geological environment have a major impact on the intensity and spatial distribution of earthquake induced landslides. We present here a review of factors contributing to earthquake triggered slope failures based on an "event-by-event" classification approach. The objective of this analysis is to enable the short-term prediction of earthquake triggered landslide event sizes in terms of numbers and size of the affected area right after an earthquake event occurred. Five main factors, 'Intensity', 'Fault', 'Topographic energy', 'Climatic conditions' and 'Surface geology' were used to establish a relationship to the number and spatial extend of landslides triggered by an earthquake. The relative weight of these factors was extracted from published data for numerous past earthquakes; topographic inputs were checked in Google Earth and through geographic information systems. Based on well-documented recent earthquakes (e.g. Haiti 2010, Wenchuan 2008) and on older events for which reliable extensive information was available (e.g. Northridge 1994, Loma Prieta 1989, Guatemala 1976, Peru 1970) the combination and relative weight of the factors was calibrated. The calibrated factor combination was then applied to more than 20 earthquake events for which landslide distribution characteristics could be cross-checked. One of our main findings is that the 'Fault' factor, which is based on characteristics of the fault, the surface rupture and its location with respect to mountain areas, has the most important
... across a fault to learn about past earthquakes. Science Fair Projects A GPS instrument measures slow movements of the ground. Become an Earthquake Scientist Cool Earthquake Facts Today in Earthquake History A scientist stands in ...
Composite Earthquake Catalog of the Yellow Sea for Seismic Hazard Studies
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kang, S. Y.; Kim, K. H.; LI, Z.; Hao, T.
2017-12-01
The Yellow Sea (a.k.a West Sea in Korea) is an epicontinental and semi-closed sea located between Korea and China. Recent earthquakes in the Yellow Sea including, but not limited to, the Seogyuckryulbi-do (1 April 2014, magnitude 5.1), Heuksan-do (21 April 2013, magnitude 4.9), Baekryung-do (18 May 2013, magnitude 4.9) earthquakes, and the earthquake swarm in the Boryung offshore region in 2013, remind us of the seismic hazards affecting east Asia. This series of earthquakes in the Yellow Sea raised numerous questions. Unfortunately, both governments have trouble in monitoring seismicity in the Yellow Sea because earthquakes occur beyond their seismic networks. For example, the epicenters of the magnitude 5.1 earthquake in the Seogyuckryulbi-do region in 2014 reported by the Korea Meteorological Administration and China Earthquake Administration differed by approximately 20 km. This illustrates the difficulty with seismic monitoring and locating earthquakes in the region, despite the huge effort made by both governments. Joint effort is required not only to overcome the limits posed by political boundaries and geographical location but also to study seismicity and the underground structures responsible. Although the well-established and developing seismic networks in Korea and China have provided unprecedented amount and quality of seismic data, high quality catalog is limited to the recent 10s of years, which is far from major earthquake cycle. It is also noticed the earthquake catalog from either country is biased to its own and cannot provide complete picture of seismicity in the Yellow Sea. In order to understand seismic hazard and tectonics in the Yellow Sea, a composite earthquake catalog has been developed. We gathered earthquake information during last 5,000 years from various sources. There are good reasons to believe that some listings account for same earthquake, but in different source parameters. We established criteria in order to provide consistent
Vertical deformation through a complete seismic cycle at Isla Santa María, Chile
Wesson, Robert L.; Melnick, Daniel; Cisternas, Marco; Moreno, Marcos; Ely, Lisa
2014-01-01
Individual great earthquakes are posited to release the elastic strain energy that has accumulated over centuries by the gradual movement of tectonic plates1, 2. However, knowledge of plate deformation during a complete seismic cycle—two successive great earthquakes and the intervening interseismic period—remains incomplete3. A complete seismic cycle began in south-central Chile in 1835 with an earthquake of about magnitude 8.5 (refs 4, 5) and ended in 2010 with a magnitude 8.8 earthquake6. During the first earthquake, an uplift of Isla Santa María by 2.4 to 3 m was documented4, 5. In the second earthquake, the island was uplifted7 by 1.8 m. Here we use nautical surveys made in 1804, after the earthquake in 1835 and in 1886, together with modern echo sounder surveys and GPS measurements made immediately before and after the 2010 earthquake, to quantify vertical deformation through the complete seismic cycle. We find that in the period between the two earthquakes, Isla Santa María subsided by about 1.4 m. We simulate the patterns of vertical deformation with a finite-element model and find that they agree broadly with predictions from elastic rebound theory2. However, comparison with geomorphic and geologic records of millennial coastline emergence8, 9 reveal that 10–20% of the vertical uplift could be permanent.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Porfido, Sabina; Alessio, Giuliana; Nappi, Rosa; De Lucia, Maddalena; Gaudiosi, Germana
2016-04-01
The aim of this study is a critical revision of the historical and recent seismicity of the Apulia and surrounding seismogenetic areas, for re-evaluating the macroseismic effects in MCS scale and ground effects in natural environment according to the ESI 2007 scale (Michetti et al., 2007) as a contribution to the seismic hazard of the region. The most important environmental effect due to historical earthquakes in the Apulia was the tsunami occurrence, followed by landslides, liquefaction phenomena, hydrological changes and ground cracks. The Apulia (Southern Italy) has been hit by several low energy and a few high energy earthquakes in the last centuries. In particular, the July 30, 1627 earthquake (I=X MCS, Rovida et al., 2011) and the May 5, 1646 event (I=X MCS), the strongest earthquakes of the Gargano promontory have been reviewed, together with the March 20, 1731 earthquake (I=IX MCS, Mw=6.5, Rovida et al., 2011), the most relevant of the Foggia province, and the February 20, 1743 earthquake (I=IX MCS, Mw= 7.1, Rovida et al., 2011, I ESI=X, Nappi et al, 2015), the strongest of the Salento area,. The whole Apulia region has also been struck by strong earthquakes of neighboring seismogenetic areas located in the Southern Apennines, Adriatic and Ionian Sea, Albania and Greece, well propagated throughout the Italian peninsula, and in particular in the southern regions, where the intensity degrees are higher, sometimes exceeding the limit of damage. Some well documented examples of Greek earthquakes strongly felt in the whole Apulia region were: the August 27, 1886 earthquake (Peloponnesus, Greece); the May 28, 1897 earthquake (Creta-Cypro); the June 26, 1926 earthquake (Creta and Cipro, Imax=X MCS), felt all over the Southern Italy; the August 28, 1962 earthquake (epicenter in Peloponnesus area). It is noteworthy that earthquakes located in the Southern Apennines were powerfully felt in the whole Apulia region; among the strongest historical events of the
The CATDAT damaging earthquakes database
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Daniell, J. E.; Khazai, B.; Wenzel, F.; Vervaeck, A.
2011-08-01
The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture) database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies, and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure, and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes. Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon. Over 17 000 sources of information have been utilised, primarily in the last few years, to present data from over 12 200 damaging earthquakes historically, with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless, and affected), and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid, and insured). Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto (214 billion USD damage; 2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars) compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>300 billion USD at time of writing), 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product), exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index), and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons. This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis, and the global reinsurance field.
Earthquakes at North Atlantic passive margins
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Gregersen, S.; Basham, P.W.
1989-01-01
The main focus of this volume is the earthquakes that occur at and near the continental margins on both sides of the North Atlantic. The book, which contains the proceedings of the NATO workshop on Causes and Effects of Earthquakes at Passive Margins and in Areas of Postglacial Rebound on Both Sides of the North Atlantic, draws together the fields of geophysics, geology and geodesy to address the stress and strain in the Earth's crust. The resulting earthquakes produced on ancient geological fault zones and the associated seismic hazards these pose to man are also addressed. Postglacial rebound in Northmore » America and Fennoscandia is a minor source of earthquakes today, during the interglacial period, but evidence is presented to suggest that the ice sheets suppressed earthquake strain while they were in place, and released this strain as a pulse of significant earthquakes after the ice melted about 9000 years ago.« less
Effects of the New Madrid earthquake series in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. Final report
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Saucier, R.T.
1977-02-01
Geological effects of the New Madrid earthquake series of 1811-12 in the upper portion of the Lower Mississippi Valley include land subsidence, uplift or doming, landslides, bank caving, fissuring, and sand blow phenomena. Features resulting from the liquefaction of sand are widespread in the alluvial valley and offer the greatest potential for definitively assessing the effects of major earthquakes on thick alluvial deposits and predicting the recurrence interval of infrequent major earthquakes in the region. However, liquefaction phenomena have not been the subject of detailed geological investigations applying knowledge of alluvial morphology and earth sciences methodology. Comparative aerial photo interpretationmore » has been used to classify liquefaction phenomena according to morphology, distribution, and relationship to major depositional environments. Surface morphology and spatial distribution of sand blows and fissures indicate basic control by drainage lines, water table position, and thickness of fine-grained topstratum deposits, Research efforts have been aimed at locating field test sites where the subsurface expression of the liquefaction phenomena can be investigated through trenching and land planing. Subsurface expression is presumed to be more permanent than surface expression and may permit the recognition of such features in older formations. Evidence of fissures and related phenomena is being sought in older Quaternary deposits to permit estimates of the frequency of past major earthquakes.« less
The Effect of Cycling Intensity on Cycling Economy During Seated and Standing Cycling.
Arkesteijn, Marco; Jobson, Simon; Hopker, James; Passfield, Louis
2016-10-01
Previous research has shown that cycling in a standing position reduces cycling economy compared with seated cycling. It is unknown whether the cycling intensity moderates the reduction in cycling economy while standing. The aim was to determine whether the negative effect of standing on cycling economy would be decreased at a higher intensity. Ten cyclists cycled in 8 different conditions. Each condition was either at an intensity of 50% or 70% of maximal aerobic power at a gradient of 4% or 8% and in the seated or standing cycling position. Cycling economy and muscle activation level of 8 leg muscles were recorded. There was an interaction between cycling intensity and position for cycling economy (P = .03), the overall activation of the leg muscles (P = .02), and the activation of the lower leg muscles (P = .05). The interaction showed decreased cycling economy when standing compared with seated cycling, but the difference was reduced at higher intensity. The overall activation of the leg muscles and the lower leg muscles, respectively, increased and decreased, but the differences between standing and seated cycling were reduced at higher intensity. Cycling economy was lower during standing cycling than seated cycling, but the difference in economy diminishes when cycling intensity increases. Activation of the lower leg muscles did not explain the lower cycling economy while standing. The increased overall activation, therefore, suggests that increased activation of the upper leg muscles explains part of the lower cycling economy while standing.
Liquefaction Effects from the Bhuj earthquake
2001-04-25
This image from NASA Terra satellite shows the Kachchh region in the Gujarat province of western India. On January 26, 2001, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake devastated this area, killing 20,000 people and destroying buildings, dams, and port facilities.
Dewatering Effects from the Gujarat earthquake
2003-02-05
On January 26, 2001, when India Republic Day is normally celebrated, a devastating earthquake hit the state of Gujarat. These two false-color images were acquired by NASA Terra spacecraft before and after the event, on January 15 and 31.
Pre-earthquake magnetic pulses
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Scoville, J.; Heraud, J.; Freund, F.
2015-08-01
A semiconductor model of rocks is shown to describe unipolar magnetic pulses, a phenomenon that has been observed prior to earthquakes. These pulses are suspected to be generated deep in the Earth's crust, in and around the hypocentral volume, days or even weeks before earthquakes. Their extremely long wavelength allows them to pass through kilometers of rock. Interestingly, when the sources of these pulses are triangulated, the locations coincide with the epicenters of future earthquakes. We couple a drift-diffusion semiconductor model to a magnetic field in order to describe the electromagnetic effects associated with electrical currents flowing within rocks. The resulting system of equations is solved numerically and it is seen that a volume of rock may act as a diode that produces transient currents when it switches bias. These unidirectional currents are expected to produce transient unipolar magnetic pulses similar in form, amplitude, and duration to those observed before earthquakes, and this suggests that the pulses could be the result of geophysical semiconductor processes.
Wald, D.J.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Marano, K.D.; Bausch, D.
2011-01-01
With the advent of the USGS prompt assessment of global earthquakes for response (PAGER) system, which rapidly assesses earthquake impacts, U.S. and international earthquake responders are reconsidering their automatic alert and activation levels and response procedures. To help facilitate rapid and appropriate earthquake response, an Earthquake Impact Scale (EIS) is proposed on the basis of two complementary criteria. On the basis of the estimated cost of damage, one is most suitable for domestic events; the other, on the basis of estimated ranges of fatalities, is generally more appropriate for global events, particularly in developing countries. Simple thresholds, derived from the systematic analysis of past earthquake impact and associated response levels, are quite effective in communicating predicted impact and response needed after an event through alerts of green (little or no impact), yellow (regional impact and response), orange (national-scale impact and response), and red (international response). Corresponding fatality thresholds for yellow, orange, and red alert levels are 1, 100, and 1,000, respectively. For damage impact, yellow, orange, and red thresholds are triggered by estimated losses reaching $1M, $100M, and $1B, respectively. The rationale for a dual approach to earthquake alerting stems from the recognition that relatively high fatalities, injuries, and homelessness predominate in countries in which local building practices typically lend themselves to high collapse and casualty rates, and these impacts lend to prioritization for international response. In contrast, financial and overall societal impacts often trigger the level of response in regions or countries in which prevalent earthquake resistant construction practices greatly reduce building collapse and resulting fatalities. Any newly devised alert, whether economic- or casualty-based, should be intuitive and consistent with established lexicons and procedures. Useful alerts should
Energy Partition and Variability of Earthquakes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kanamori, H.
2003-12-01
mechanically dissipated during faulting. In the context of the slip-weakening model, EG can be estimated from Δ W0 and ER. Alternatively, EG can be estimated from the laboratory data on the surface energy, the grain size and the total volume of newly formed fault gouge. This method suggests that, for crustal earthquakes, EG/E_R is very small, less than 0.2 even for extreme cases, for earthquakes with MW>7. This is consistent with the EG estimated with seismological methods, and the fast rupture speeds during most large earthquakes. For shallow subduction-zone earthquakes, EG/E_R varies substantially depending on the tectonic environments. EH: Direct estimation of EH is difficult. However, even with modest friction, EH can be very large, enough to melt or even dissociate a significant amount of material near the slip zone for large events with large slip, and the associated thermal effects may have significant effects on fault dynamics. The energy partition varies significantly for different types of earthquakes, e.g. large earthquakes on mature faults, large earthquakes on faults with low slip rates, subduction-zone earthquakes, deep focus earthquakes etc; this variability manifests itself in the difference in the evolution of seismic slip pattern. The different behaviors will be illustrated using the examples for large earthquakes, including, the 2001 Kunlun, the 1998 Balleny Is., the 1994 Bolivia, the 2001 India earthquake, the 1999 Chi-Chi, and the 2002 Denali earthquakes.
Xu, Xianglong; Li, Bing; Bai, Ruixue; Rao, Yunshuang; Liu, Lingli; Reis, Cesar; Sharma, Manoj; Zhao, Yong
2018-01-01
Women are a dominant force in the family's diet and nutrition in China. The shortterm effects of the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake were found. However, the long-term effects of the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake on the food safety, energy, and intake frequency of women remain unclear. This study analyzed the effects of the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake on the dietary behaviors of women one year after the earthquake. In this cross-sectional study, a total of 207 women were selected using the proportional sampling method. Among them, 91 were from the earthquake-affected area and 116 were from the non-affected area. Women from the earthquake-affected area paid significantly more attention to health, diet, food and water safety after the earthquake (p<0.05 for each category) when compared with those from the non-affected area. Women from the earthquake-affected area also had a significantly higher proportion of adequate understanding of low-energy food, properly separated their raw food from cooked food, ate high-energy food, and picky eating habits (p<0.05 for each category) than those from the non-affected area. In addition, women from the earthquake-affected area were more likely to adhere to the 2007 Chinese Food Guide Pagoda (FGP) guidelines for eating rice than those from the non-affected area (OR=2.25, 95% CI [1.13, 4.51]). The female survivors of the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake preferred high-energy food, paid more attention to food safety, and were more likely to adhere to FGP when compared to those that did not undergo the same tragedy.
Earthquake magnitude estimation using the τ c and P d method for earthquake early warning systems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jin, Xing; Zhang, Hongcai; Li, Jun; Wei, Yongxiang; Ma, Qiang
2013-10-01
Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are one of the most effective ways to reduce earthquake disaster. Earthquake magnitude estimation is one of the most important and also the most difficult parts of the entire EEW system. In this paper, based on 142 earthquake events and 253 seismic records that were recorded by the KiK-net in Japan, and aftershocks of the large Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, we obtained earthquake magnitude estimation relationships using the τ c and P d methods. The standard variances of magnitude calculation of these two formulas are ±0.65 and ±0.56, respectively. The P d value can also be used to estimate the peak ground motion of velocity, then warning information can be released to the public rapidly, according to the estimation results. In order to insure the stability and reliability of magnitude estimation results, we propose a compatibility test according to the natures of these two parameters. The reliability of the early warning information is significantly improved though this test.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jones, K. B., II; Saxton, P. T.
2013-12-01
directional techniques were employed, resulting in three mapped, potential epicenters. The remaining, weaker signals presented similar directionality results to more epicentral locations. In addition, the directional results of the Timpson field tests lead to the design and construction of a third prototype antenna. In a laboratory setting, experiments were created to fail igneous rock types within a custom-designed Faraday Cage. An antenna emplaced within the cage detected EM emissions, which were both reproducible and distinct, and the laboratory results paralleled field results. With a viable system and continuous monitoring, a fracture cycle could be established and observed in real-time. Sequentially, field data would be reviewed quickly for assessment; thus, leading to a much improved earthquake forecasting capability. The EM precursor determined by this method may surpass all prior precursor claims, and the general public will finally receive long overdue forecasting.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hosono, Masaki; Mitsui, Yuta; Ishibashi, Hidemi; Kataoka, Jun
2016-12-01
We discuss elastostatic effects on Mt. Fuji, the tallest volcano in Japan, due to historic earthquakes in Japan. The 1707 Hoei eruption, which was the most explosive historic eruption of Mt. Fuji, occurred 49 days after the Hoei earthquake (Mw 8.7) along the Nankai Trough. It was previously suggested that the Hoei earthquake induced compression of a basaltic magma reservoir and unclamping of a dike-intruded region at depth, possibly triggering magma mixing and the subsequent Plinian eruption. Here, we show that the 1707 Hoei earthquake was a special case of induced volumetric strain and normal stress changes around the magma reservoir and pathway of Mt. Fuji. The 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9), along the Japan Trench, dilated the magma reservoir. It has been proposed that dilation of a magma reservoir drives the ascent of gas bubbles with magma and further depressurization, leading to a volcanic eruption. In fact, seismicity notably increased around Mt. Fuji during the first month after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, even when we statistically exclude aftershocks, but the small amount of strain change (< 1 μ strain) may have limited the ascent of magma. For many historic earthquakes, the magma reservoir was compressed and the magma pathway was wholly clamped. This type of interaction has little potential to mechanically trigger the deformation of a volcano. Thus, Mt. Fuji may be less susceptible to elastostatic effects because of its location relative to the sources of large tectonic earthquakes. As an exception, a possible local earthquake in the Fujikawa-kako fault zone could induce a large amount of magma reservoir dilation beneath the southern flank of Mt. Fuji.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sainvil, A. K.; Schmidt, D. A.; Nuyen, C.
2017-12-01
The goal of this study is to explore how slow slip events on the southern Cascadia Subduction Zone respond to nearby, offshore earthquakes by examining GPS and tremor data. At intermediate depths on the plate interface ( 40 km), transient fault slip is observed in the form of Episodic Tremor and Slip (ETS) events. These ETS events occur regularly (every 10 months), and have a longer duration than normal earthquakes. Researchers have been documenting slow slip events through data obtained by continuously running GPS stations in the Pacific Northwest. Some studies have proposed that pore fluid may play a role in these ETS events by lowering the effective stress on the fault. The interaction of earthquakes and ETS can provide constraints on the strength of the fault and the level of stress needed to alter ETS behavior. Earthquakes can trigger ETS events, but the connection between these events and earthquake activity is less understood. We originally hypothesized that ETS events would be affected by earthquakes in southern Cascadia, and could result in a shift in the recurrence interval of ETS events. ETS events were cataloged using GPS time series provided by PANGA, in conjunction with tremor positions, in Southern Cascadia for stations YBHB and DDSN from 1997 to 2017. We looked for evidence of change from three offshore earthquakes that occurred near the Mendocino Triple Junction with moment magnitudes of 7.2 in 2005, 6.5 in 2010, and 6.8 in 2014. Our results showed that the recurrence interval of ETS for stations YBHB and DDSN was not altered by the three earthquake events. Future is needed to explore whether this lack of interaction is explained by the non-optimal orientation of the receiver fault for the earthquake focal mechanisms.
Application of τc*Pd for identifying damaging earthquakes for earthquake early warning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Huang, P. L.; Lin, T. L.; Wu, Y. M.
2014-12-01
Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) is an effective approach to mitigate earthquake damage. In this study, we used the seismic record by the Kiban Kyoshin network (KiK-net), because it has dense station coverage and co-located borehole strong-motion seismometers along with the free-surface strong-motion seismometers. We used inland earthquakes with moment magnitude (Mw) from 5.0 to 7.3 between 1998 and 2012. We choose 135 events and 10950 strong ground accelerograms recorded by the 696 strong ground accelerographs. Both the free-surface and the borehole data are used to calculate τc and Pd, respectively. The results show that τc*Pd has a good correlation with PGV and is a robust parameter for assessing the potential of damaging earthquake. We propose the value of τc*Pd determined from seconds after the arrival of P wave could be a threshold for the on-site type of EEW.
2010-01-01
Introduction In recent years, several massive earthquakes have occurred across the globe. Multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) is reliable in detecting spinal injuries. The purpose of this study was to compare the features of spinal injuries resulting from the Sichuan earthquake with those of non-earthquake-related spinal trauma using MDCT. Methods Features of spinal injuries of 223 Sichuan earthquake-exposed patients and 223 non-earthquake-related spinal injury patients were retrospectively compared using MDCT. The date of non-earthquake-related spinal injury patients was collected from 1 May 2009 to 22 July 2009 to avoid the confounding effects of seasonal activity and clothing. We focused on anatomic sites, injury types and neurologic deficits related to spinal injuries. Major injuries were classified according to the grid 3-3-3 scheme of the Magerl (AO) classification system. Results A total of 185 patients (82.96%) in the earthquake-exposed cohort experienced crush injuries. In the earthquake and control groups, 65 and 92 patients, respectively, had neurologic deficits. The anatomic distribution of these two cohorts was significantly different (P < 0.001). Cervical spinal injuries were more common in the control group (risk ratio (RR) = 2.12, P < 0.001), whereas lumbar spinal injuries were more common in the earthquake-related spinal injuries group (277 of 501 injured vertebrae; 55.29%). The major types of injuries were significantly different between these cohorts (P = 0.002). Magerl AO type A lesions composed most of the lesions seen in both of these cohorts. Type B lesions were more frequently seen in earthquake-related spinal injuries (RR = 1.27), while we observed type C lesions more frequently in subjects with non-earthquake-related spinal injuries (RR = 1.98, P = 0.0029). Conclusions Spinal injuries sustained in the Sichuan earthquake were located mainly in the lumbar spine, with a peak prevalence of type A lesions and a high occurrence of
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Matsuda, T.; Omura, K.; Ikeda, R.
2003-12-01
National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) has been conducting _gFault zone drilling_h. Fault zone drilling is especially important in understanding the structure, composition, and physical properties of an active fault. In the Chubu district of central Japan, large active faults such as the Atotsugawa (with 1858 Hietsu earthquake) and the Atera (with 1586 Tensho earthquake) faults exist. After the occurrence of the 1995 Kobe earthquake, it has been widely recognized that direct measurements in fault zones by drilling. This time, we describe about the Atera fault and the Nojima fault. Because, these two faults are similar in geological situation (mostly composed of granitic rocks), so it is easy to do comparative study of drilling investigation. The features of the Atera fault, which have been dislocated by the 1586 Tensho earthquake, are as follows. Total length is about 70 km. That general trend is NW45 degree with a left-lateral strike slip. Slip rate is estimated as 3-5 m / 1000 years. Seismicity is very low at present and lithologies around the fault are basically granitic rocks and rhyolite. Six boreholes have been drilled from the depth of 400 m to 630 m. Four of these boreholes (Hatajiri, Fukuoka, Ueno and Kawaue) are located on a line crossing in a direction perpendicular to the Atera fault. In the Kawaue well, mostly fractured and alternating granitic rock continued from the surface to the bottom at 630 m. X-ray fluorescence analysis (XRF) is conducted to estimate the amount of major chemical elements using the glass bead method for core samples. The amounts of H20+ are about from 0.5 to 2.5 weight percent. This fractured zone is also characterized by the logging data such as low resistivity, low P-wave velocity, low density and high neutron porosity. The 1995 Kobe (Hyogo-ken Nanbu) earthquake occurred along the NE-SW-trending Rokko-Awaji fault system, and the Nojima fault appeared on the surface on Awaji Island when this
Investigating Lushan Earthquake Victims' Individual Behavior Response and Rescue Organization.
Kang, Peng; Lv, Yipeng; Deng, Qiangyu; Liu, Yuan; Zhang, Yi; Liu, Xu; Zhang, Lulu
2017-12-11
Research concerning the impact of earthquake victims' individual behavior and its association with earthquake-related injuries is lacking. This study examined this relationship along with effectiveness of earthquake rescue measures. The six most severely destroyed townships during the Lushan earthquake were examined; 28 villages and three earthquake victims' settlement camp areas were selected as research areas. Inclusion criteria comprised living in Lushan county for a longtime, living in Lushan county during the 2013 Lushan earthquake, and having one's home destroyed. Earthquake victims with an intellectual disability or communication problems were excluded. The earthquake victims (N (number) = 5165, male = 2396) completed a questionnaire (response rate: 94.7%). Among them, 209 were injured (5.61%). Teachers (p < 0.0001, OR (odds ratios) = 3.33) and medical staff (p = 0.001, OR = 4.35) were more vulnerable to the earthquake than were farmers. Individual behavior was directly related to injuries, such as the first reaction after earthquake and fear. There is an obvious connection between earthquake-related injury and individual behavior characteristics. It is strongly suggested that victims receive mental health support from medical practitioners and the government to minimize negative effects. The initial reaction after an earthquake also played a vital role in victims' trauma; therefore, earthquake-related experience and education may prevent injuries. Self-aid and mutual help played key roles in emergency, medical rescue efforts.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Victor, P.; Sobiesiak, M.; Nielsen, S.; Glodny, J.; Oncken, O.
2010-12-01
The Mejillones Peninsula in N-Chile is a strong anomaly in coastline morphology along the Chilean convergent margin. The location of the Peninsula coincides with the northern limit of the 1995 Mw=8.0 Antofagasta earthquake and the southern limit of the 2007 Mw=7.8 Tocopilla earthquake and, probably, also with the southern limit of the 1877 Mw=8.5 Iquique earthquake. Although it is tempting to recognise the Mejillones Peninsula as the surface expression of a major segment boundary for large subduction earthquakes, so far evidence for its stability over multiple seismic cycles is lacking. We introduce a detailed analysis of the aftershock sequences in combination with new age data of the surface uplift evolution since the late Pliocene to test the hypothesis whether earthquake rupture propagation is limited at the latitude of Mejillones Peninsula since a longer time period. If the Peninsula really is linked to a persistent segment boundary, then the surface deformation of the Peninsula in fact holds the record about a deep-seated mechanism revealing the interaction between the subduction process and near-surface deformation. In our study we present new chronostratigraphic and structural data that allow reconstructing the evolution of the Peninsula at the surface and correlation of the latter with seismic cycle deformation on the interface. We investigated sets of paleo-strandlines preserved in beach ridges and uplifted cliffs to reconstruct the uplift history of the Peninsula. Our results show that the central graben area on the Peninsula started uplifting above sea level as an anticlinal hinge zone prior to 400 ky ago, most probably 790 ky ago. The resulting E-W trending hinge exactly overlies the limit between the rupture planes of the Antofagasta and Tocopilla earthquakes. By correlating the uplift data with the slip distribution of the Antofagasta and Tocopilla earthquakes, we demonstrate that deformation and uplift is focussed during the postseismic and
Building Loss Estimation for Earthquake Insurance Pricing
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Durukal, E.; Erdik, M.; Sesetyan, K.; Demircioglu, M. B.; Fahjan, Y.; Siyahi, B.
2005-12-01
After the 1999 earthquakes in Turkey several changes in the insurance sector took place. A compulsory earthquake insurance scheme was introduced by the government. The reinsurance companies increased their rates. Some even supended operations in the market. And, most important, the insurance companies realized the importance of portfolio analysis in shaping their future market strategies. The paper describes an earthquake loss assessment methodology that can be used for insurance pricing and portfolio loss estimation that is based on our work esperience in the insurance market. The basic ingredients are probabilistic and deterministic regional site dependent earthquake hazard, regional building inventory (and/or portfolio), building vulnerabilities associated with typical construction systems in Turkey and estimations of building replacement costs for different damage levels. Probable maximum and average annualized losses are estimated as the result of analysis. There is a two-level earthquake insurance system in Turkey, the effect of which is incorporated in the algorithm: the national compulsory earthquake insurance scheme and the private earthquake insurance system. To buy private insurance one has to be covered by the national system, that has limited coverage. As a demonstration of the methodology we look at the case of Istanbul and use its building inventory data instead of a portfolio. A state-of-the-art time depent earthquake hazard model that portrays the increased earthquake expectancies in Istanbul is used. Intensity and spectral displacement based vulnerability relationships are incorporated in the analysis. In particular we look at the uncertainty in the loss estimations that arise from the vulnerability relationships, and at the effect of the implemented repair cost ratios.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Khachikyan, Galina; Inchin, Alexander; Toyshiev, Nursultan
An analysis of data of global seismological catalog NEIC (National Earthquake Information Center of the U.S. Geological Survey) for 1973-2011 (182933 events with magnitude equal to 4.5 and more) has been carried out with taken into account the geometry of the main geomagnetic field as gives the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF-11) model. It is found that the greatest number of earthquakes occurs in seismic areas penetrated by the geomagnetic force lines L=1.0-1.1, and additionally, the L-shell distribution of earthquake counting rate is peaked at the L equal to 2.0-2.2, which are inhabited by the Anomalous Cosmic Rays (ACRs). It is revealed that occurrence of strong earthquakes (with magnitude 7.0 and more) in these areas is modulated by the 11 year solar cycle. Namely, during 1973-2011, twenty strong earthquakes occurred in regions where the L=2.0-2.2 are loaned into the earth’s crust and, surprisingly, all of these earthquakes occurred only at the declining phase of the 11 year solar cycles while were absent at the ascending phase. Solar modulation of earthquake occurrence may be explained at present in the frame of a modern idea that earthquake is triggered by the electric currents flowing into the global electric circuit (GEC), where the charged geomagnetic force lines play the role of conductors (field align currents). The operation of GEC depends on intensity of cosmic rays which provide ionization and conductivity of the air in the middle atmosphere. Since the ACRs are especially sensitive to solar modulation, and since they populate the L of 2.0, it may be expected that earthquake occurrence in the areas penetrated by L of 2.0 would be especially sensitive to solar modulation. Our results prove this expectation, but much work is required to study this problem in more details.
Eckel, Edwin B.
1967-01-01
The earthquake of March 27, 1964, wrecked or severely hampered all forms of transportation, all utilities, and all communications systems over a very large part of south-central Alaska. Effects on air transportation were minor as compared to those on the water, highway, and railroad transport systems. A few planes were damaged or wrecked by seismic vibration or by flooding. Numerous airport facilities were damaged by vibration or by secondary effects of the earthquake, notably seismic sea and landslide-generated waves, tectonic subsidence, and compaction. Nearly all air facilities were partly or wholly operational within a few hours after the earthquake. The earthquake inflicted enormous damage on the shipping industry, which is indispensable to a State that imports fully 90 percent of its requirements—mostly by water—and whose largest single industry is fishing. Except for those of Anchorage, all port facilities in the earthquake-affected area were destroyed or made inoperable by submarine slides, waves, tectonic uplift, and fire. No large vessels were lost, but more than 200 smaller ones (mostly crab or salmon boats) were lost or severely damaged. Navigation aids were destroyed, and hitherto well-known waterways were greatly altered by uplift or subsidence. All these effects wrought far-reaching changes in the shipping economy of Alaska, many of them to its betterment. Virtually all utilities and communications in south-central Alaska were damaged or wrecked by the earthquake, but temporary repairs were effected in remarkably short times. Communications systems were silenced almost everywhere by loss of power or by downed lines; their place was quickly taken by a patchwork of self-powered radio transmitters. A complex power-generating system that served much of the stricken area from steam, diesel, and hydrogenerating plants was disrupted in many places by vibration damage to equipment and by broken transmission lines. Landslides in Anchorage broke gas
Possible Electromagnetic Effects on Abnormal Animal Behavior Before an Earthquake
Hayakawa, Masashi
2013-01-01
Simple Summary Possible electromagnetic effects on abnormal animal behavior before earthquakes. Abstract The former statistical properties summarized by Rikitake (1998) on unusual animal behavior before an earthquake (EQ) have first been presented by using two parameters (epicentral distance (D) of an anomaly and its precursor (or lead) time (T)). Three plots are utilized to characterize the unusual animal behavior; (i) EQ magnitude (M) versus D, (ii) log T versus M, and (iii) occurrence histogram of log T. These plots are compared with the corresponding plots for different seismo-electromagnetic effects (radio emissions in different frequency ranges, seismo-atmospheric and -ionospheric perturbations) extensively obtained during the last 15–20 years. From the results of comparisons in terms of three plots, it is likely that lower frequency (ULF (ultra-low-frequency, f ≤ 1 Hz) and ELF (extremely-low-frequency, f ≤ a few hundreds Hz)) electromagnetic emissions exhibit a very similar temporal evolution with that of abnormal animal behavior. It is also suggested that a quantity of field intensity multiplied by the persistent time (or duration) of noise would play the primary role in abnormal animal behavior before an EQ. PMID:26487307
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shanker, D.; Paudyal, ,; Singh, H.
2010-12-01
It is not only the basic understanding of the phenomenon of earthquake, its resistance offered by the designed structure, but the understanding of the socio-economic factors, engineering properties of the indigenous materials, local skill and technology transfer models are also of vital importance. It is important that the engineering aspects of mitigation should be made a part of public policy documents. Earthquakes, therefore, are and were thought of as one of the worst enemies of mankind. Due to the very nature of release of energy, damage is evident which, however, will not culminate in a disaster unless it strikes a populated area. The word mitigation may be defined as the reduction in severity of something. The Earthquake disaster mitigation, therefore, implies that such measures may be taken which help reduce severity of damage caused by earthquake to life, property and environment. While “earthquake disaster mitigation” usually refers primarily to interventions to strengthen the built environment, and “earthquake protection” is now considered to include human, social and administrative aspects of reducing earthquake effects. It should, however, be noted that reduction of earthquake hazards through prediction is considered to be the one of the effective measures, and much effort is spent on prediction strategies. While earthquake prediction does not guarantee safety and even if predicted correctly the damage to life and property on such a large scale warrants the use of other aspects of mitigation. While earthquake prediction may be of some help, mitigation remains the main focus of attention of the civil society. Present study suggests that anomalous seismic activity/ earthquake swarm existed prior to the medium size earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. The mainshocks were preceded by the quiescence period which is an indication for the occurrence of future seismic activity. In all the cases, the identified episodes of anomalous seismic activity were
Turkish Compulsory Earthquake Insurance and "Istanbul Earthquake
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Durukal, E.; Sesetyan, K.; Erdik, M.
2009-04-01
The city of Istanbul will likely experience substantial direct and indirect losses as a result of a future large (M=7+) earthquake with an annual probability of occurrence of about 2%. This paper dwells on the expected building losses in terms of probable maximum and average annualized losses and discusses the results from the perspective of the compulsory earthquake insurance scheme operational in the country. The TCIP system is essentially designed to operate in Turkey with sufficient penetration to enable the accumulation of funds in the pool. Today, with only 20% national penetration, and about approximately one-half of all policies in highly earthquake prone areas (one-third in Istanbul) the system exhibits signs of adverse selection, inadequate premium structure and insufficient funding. Our findings indicate that the national compulsory earthquake insurance pool in Turkey will face difficulties in covering incurring building losses in Istanbul in the occurrence of a large earthquake. The annualized earthquake losses in Istanbul are between 140-300 million. Even if we assume that the deductible is raised to 15%, the earthquake losses that need to be paid after a large earthquake in Istanbul will be at about 2.5 Billion, somewhat above the current capacity of the TCIP. Thus, a modification to the system for the insured in Istanbul (or Marmara region) is necessary. This may mean an increase in the premia and deductible rates, purchase of larger re-insurance covers and development of a claim processing system. Also, to avoid adverse selection, the penetration rates elsewhere in Turkey need to be increased substantially. A better model would be introduction of parametric insurance for Istanbul. By such a model the losses will not be indemnified, however will be directly calculated on the basis of indexed ground motion levels and damages. The immediate improvement of a parametric insurance model over the existing one will be the elimination of the claim processing
Effect of slip-area scaling on the earthquake frequency-magnitude relationship
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Senatorski, Piotr
2017-06-01
The earthquake frequency-magnitude relationship is considered in the maximum entropy principle (MEP) perspective. The MEP suggests sampling with constraints as a simple stochastic model of seismicity. The model is based on the von Neumann's acceptance-rejection method, with b-value as the parameter that breaks symmetry between small and large earthquakes. The Gutenberg-Richter law's b-value forms a link between earthquake statistics and physics. Dependence between b-value and the rupture area vs. slip scaling exponent is derived. The relationship enables us to explain observed ranges of b-values for different types of earthquakes. Specifically, different b-value ranges for tectonic and induced, hydraulic fracturing seismicity is explained in terms of their different triggering mechanisms: by the applied stress increase and fault strength reduction, respectively.
Earthquake potential revealed by tidal influence on earthquake size-frequency statistics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ide, Satoshi; Yabe, Suguru; Tanaka, Yoshiyuki
2016-11-01
The possibility that tidal stress can trigger earthquakes is long debated. In particular, a clear causal relationship between small earthquakes and the phase of tidal stress is elusive. However, tectonic tremors deep within subduction zones are highly sensitive to tidal stress levels, with tremor rate increasing at an exponential rate with rising tidal stress. Thus, slow deformation and the possibility of earthquakes at subduction plate boundaries may be enhanced during periods of large tidal stress. Here we calculate the tidal stress history, and specifically the amplitude of tidal stress, on a fault plane in the two weeks before large earthquakes globally, based on data from the global, Japanese, and Californian earthquake catalogues. We find that very large earthquakes, including the 2004 Sumatran, 2010 Maule earthquake in Chile and the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan, tend to occur near the time of maximum tidal stress amplitude. This tendency is not obvious for small earthquakes. However, we also find that the fraction of large earthquakes increases (the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation decreases) as the amplitude of tidal shear stress increases. The relationship is also reasonable, considering the well-known relationship between stress and the b-value. This suggests that the probability of a tiny rock failure expanding to a gigantic rupture increases with increasing tidal stress levels. We conclude that large earthquakes are more probable during periods of high tidal stress.
Earthquake Damping Device for Steel Frame
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zamri Ramli, Mohd; Delfy, Dezoura; Adnan, Azlan; Torman, Zaida
2018-04-01
Structures such as buildings, bridges and towers are prone to collapse when natural phenomena like earthquake occurred. Therefore, many design codes are reviewed and new technologies are introduced to resist earthquake energy especially on building to avoid collapse. The tuned mass damper is one of the earthquake reduction products introduced on structures to minimise the earthquake effect. This study aims to analyse the effectiveness of tuned mass damper by experimental works and finite element modelling. The comparisons are made between these two models under harmonic excitation. Based on the result, it is proven that installing tuned mass damper will reduce the dynamic response of the frame but only in several input frequencies. At the highest input frequency applied, the tuned mass damper failed to reduce the responses. In conclusion, in order to use a proper design of damper, detailed analysis must be carried out to have sufficient design based on the location of the structures with specific ground accelerations.
Keranen, Katie M.; Savage, Heather M.; Abers, Geoffrey A.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.
2013-01-01
Significant earthquakes are increasingly occurring within the continental interior of the United States, including five of moment magnitude (Mw) ≥ 5.0 in 2011 alone. Concurrently, the volume of fluid injected into the subsurface related to the production of unconventional resources continues to rise. Here we identify the largest earthquake potentially related to injection, an Mw 5.7 earthquake in November 2011 in Oklahoma. The earthquake was felt in at least 17 states and caused damage in the epicentral region. It occurred in a sequence, with 2 earthquakes of Mw 5.0 and a prolific sequence of aftershocks. We use the aftershocks to illuminate the faults that ruptured in the sequence, and show that the tip of the initial rupture plane is within ~200 m of active injection wells and within ~1 km of the surface; 30% of early aftershocks occur within the sedimentary section. Subsurface data indicate that fluid was injected into effectively sealed compartments, and we interpret that a net fluid volume increase after 18 yr of injection lowered effective stress on reservoir-bounding faults. Significantly, this case indicates that decades-long lags between the commencement of fluid injection and the onset of induced earthquakes are possible, and modifies our common criteria for fluid-induced events. The progressive rupture of three fault planes in this sequence suggests that stress changes from the initial rupture triggered the successive earthquakes, including one larger than the first.
Local tsunamis and earthquake source parameters
Geist, Eric L.; Dmowska, Renata; Saltzman, Barry
1999-01-01
This chapter establishes the relationship among earthquake source parameters and the generation, propagation, and run-up of local tsunamis. In general terms, displacement of the seafloor during the earthquake rupture is modeled using the elastic dislocation theory for which the displacement field is dependent on the slip distribution, fault geometry, and the elastic response and properties of the medium. Specifically, nonlinear long-wave theory governs the propagation and run-up of tsunamis. A parametric study is devised to examine the relative importance of individual earthquake source parameters on local tsunamis, because the physics that describes tsunamis from generation through run-up is complex. Analysis of the source parameters of various tsunamigenic earthquakes have indicated that the details of the earthquake source, namely, nonuniform distribution of slip along the fault plane, have a significant effect on the local tsunami run-up. Numerical methods have been developed to address the realistic bathymetric and shoreline conditions. The accuracy of determining the run-up on shore is directly dependent on the source parameters of the earthquake, which provide the initial conditions used for the hydrodynamic models.
Earthquake Hazard Analysis Methods: A Review
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sari, A. M.; Fakhrurrozi, A.
2018-02-01
One of natural disasters that have significantly impacted on risks and damage is an earthquake. World countries such as China, Japan, and Indonesia are countries located on the active movement of continental plates with more frequent earthquake occurrence compared to other countries. Several methods of earthquake hazard analysis have been done, for example by analyzing seismic zone and earthquake hazard micro-zonation, by using Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (N-DSHA) method, and by using Remote Sensing. In its application, it is necessary to review the effectiveness of each technique in advance. Considering the efficiency of time and the accuracy of data, remote sensing is used as a reference to the assess earthquake hazard accurately and quickly as it only takes a limited time required in the right decision-making shortly after the disaster. Exposed areas and possibly vulnerable areas due to earthquake hazards can be easily analyzed using remote sensing. Technological developments in remote sensing such as GeoEye-1 provide added value and excellence in the use of remote sensing as one of the methods in the assessment of earthquake risk and damage. Furthermore, the use of this technique is expected to be considered in designing policies for disaster management in particular and can reduce the risk of natural disasters such as earthquakes in Indonesia.
Redefining Earthquakes and the Earthquake Machine
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Hubenthal, Michael; Braile, Larry; Taber, John
2008-01-01
The Earthquake Machine (EML), a mechanical model of stick-slip fault systems, can increase student engagement and facilitate opportunities to participate in the scientific process. This article introduces the EML model and an activity that challenges ninth-grade students' misconceptions about earthquakes. The activity emphasizes the role of models…
Nitsche Extended Finite Element Methods for Earthquake Simulation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Coon, Ethan T.
propagation and material failure. While some theory and application of these methods exist, implementations for the simulation of networks of many cracks have not yet been considered. For my thesis, I implement and extend one such method, the eXtended Finite Element Method (XFEM), for use in static and dynamic models of fault networks. Once this machinery is developed, it is applied to open questions regarding the behavior of networks of faults, including questions of distributed deformation in fault systems and ensembles of magnitude, location, and frequency in repeat ruptures. The theory of XFEM is augmented to allow for solution of problems with alternating regimes of static solves for elastic stress conditions and short, dynamic earthquakes on networks of faults. This is accomplished using Nitsche's approach for implementing boundary conditions. Finally, an optimization problem is developed to determine tractions along the fault, enabling the calculation of frictional constraints and the rupture front. This method is verified via a series of static, quasistatic, and dynamic problems. Armed with this technique, we look at several problems regarding geometry within the earthquake cycle in which geometry is crucial. We first look at quasistatic simulations on a community fault model of Southern California, and model slip distribution across that system. We find the distribution of deformation across faults compares reasonably well with slip rates across the region, as constrained by geologic data. We find geometry can provide constraints for friction, and consider the minimization of shear strain across the zone as a function of friction and plate loading direction, and infer bounds on fault strength in the region. Then we consider the repeated rupture problem, modeling the full earthquake cycle over the course of many events on several fault geometries. In this work, we look at distributions of events, studying the effect of geometry on statistical metrics of event
Engineering geological aspect of Gorkha Earthquake 2015, Nepal
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Adhikari, Basanta Raj; Andermann, Christoff; Cook, Kristen
2016-04-01
Strong shaking by earthquake causes massif landsliding with severe effects on infrastructure and human lives. The distribution of landslides and other hazards are depending on the combination of earthquake and local characteristics which influence the dynamic response of hillslopes. The Himalayas are one of the most active mountain belts with several kilometers of relief and is very prone to catastrophic mass failure. Strong and shallow earthquakes are very common and cause wide spread collapse of hillslopes, increasing the background landslide rate by several magnitude. The Himalaya is facing many small and large earthquakes in the past i.e. earthquakes i.e. Bihar-Nepal earthquake 1934 (Ms 8.2); Large Kangra earthquake of 1905 (Ms 7.8); Gorkha earthquake 2015 (Mw 7.8). The Mw 7.9 Gorkha earthquake has occurred on and around the main Himalayan Thrust with a hypocentral depth of 15 km (GEER 2015) followed by Mw 7.3 aftershock in Kodari causing 8700+ deaths and leaving hundreds of thousands of homeless. Most of the 3000 aftershocks located by National Seismological Center (NSC) within the first 45 days following the Gorkha Earthquake are concentrated in a narrow 40 km-wide band at midcrustal to shallow depth along the strike of the southern slope of the high Himalaya (Adhikari et al. 2015) and the ground shaking was substantially lower in the short-period range than would be expected for and earthquake of this magnitude (Moss et al. 2015). The effect of this earthquake is very unique in affected areas by showing topographic effect, liquefaction and land subsidence. More than 5000 landslides were triggered by this earthquake (Earthquake without Frontiers, 2015). Most of the landslides are shallow and occurred in weathered bedrock and appear to have mobilized primarily as raveling failures, rock slides and rock falls. Majority of landslides are limited to a zone which runs east-west, approximately parallel the lesser and higher Himalaya. There are numerous cracks in
OMG Earthquake! Can Twitter improve earthquake response?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Earle, P. S.; Guy, M.; Ostrum, C.; Horvath, S.; Buckmaster, R. A.
2009-12-01
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public, text messages, can augment its earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. The goal is to gather near real-time, earthquake-related messages (tweets) and provide geo-located earthquake detections and rough maps of the corresponding felt areas. Twitter and other social Internet technologies are providing the general public with anecdotal earthquake hazard information before scientific information has been published from authoritative sources. People local to an event often publish information within seconds via these technologies. In contrast, depending on the location of the earthquake, scientific alerts take between 2 to 20 minutes. Examining the tweets following the March 30, 2009, M4.3 Morgan Hill earthquake shows it is possible (in some cases) to rapidly detect and map the felt area of an earthquake using Twitter responses. Within a minute of the earthquake, the frequency of “earthquake” tweets rose above the background level of less than 1 per hour to about 150 per minute. Using the tweets submitted in the first minute, a rough map of the felt area can be obtained by plotting the tweet locations. Mapping the tweets from the first six minutes shows observations extending from Monterey to Sacramento, similar to the perceived shaking region mapped by the USGS “Did You Feel It” system. The tweets submitted after the earthquake also provided (very) short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking. Accurately assessing the potential and robustness of a Twitter-based system is difficult because only tweets spanning the previous seven days can be searched, making a historical study impossible. We have, however, been archiving tweets for several months, and it is clear that significant limitations do exist. The main drawback is the lack of quantitative information
Earle, Paul S.; Wald, David J.; Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Allen, Trevor I.; Hearne, Michael G.; Marano, Kristin D.; Hotovec, Alicia J.; Fee, Jeremy
2009-01-01
Within minutes of a significant earthquake anywhere on the globe, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system assesses its potential societal impact. PAGER automatically estimates the number of people exposed to severe ground shaking and the shaking intensity at affected cities. Accompanying maps of the epicentral region show the population distribution and estimated ground-shaking intensity. A regionally specific comment describes the inferred vulnerability of the regional building inventory and, when available, lists recent nearby earthquakes and their effects. PAGER's results are posted on the USGS Earthquake Program Web site (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/), consolidated in a concise one-page report, and sent in near real-time to emergency responders, government agencies, and the media. Both rapid and accurate results are obtained through manual and automatic updates of PAGER's content in the hours following significant earthquakes. These updates incorporate the most recent estimates of earthquake location, magnitude, faulting geometry, and first-hand accounts of shaking. PAGER relies on a rich set of earthquake analysis and assessment tools operated by the USGS and contributing Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional networks. A focused research effort is underway to extend PAGER's near real-time capabilities beyond population exposure to quantitative estimates of fatalities, injuries, and displaced population.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bossu, R.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Roussel, F.; Frobert, L.
2011-12-01
Rapid characterisation of earthquake effects is essential for a timely and appropriate response in favour of victims and/or of eyewitnesses. In case of damaging earthquakes, any field observations that can fill the information gap characterising their immediate aftermath can contribute to more efficient rescue operations. This paper presents the last developments of a method called "flash-sourcing" addressing these issues. It relies on eyewitnesses, the first informed and the first concerned by an earthquake occurrence. More precisely, their use of the EMSC earthquake information website (www.emsc-csem.org) is analysed in real time to map the area where the earthquake was felt and identify, at least under certain circumstances zones of widespread damage. The approach is based on the natural and immediate convergence of eyewitnesses on the website who rush to the Internet to investigate cause of the shaking they just felt causing our traffic to increase The area where an earthquake was felt is mapped simply by locating Internet Protocol (IP) addresses during traffic surges. In addition, the presence of eyewitnesses browsing our website within minutes of an earthquake occurrence excludes the possibility of widespread damage in the localities they originate from: in case of severe damage, the networks would be down. The validity of the information derived from this clickstream analysis is confirmed by comparisons with EMS98 macroseismic map obtained from online questionnaires. The name of this approach, "flash-sourcing", is a combination of "flash-crowd" and "crowdsourcing" intending to reflect the rapidity of the data collation from the public. For computer scientists, a flash-crowd names a traffic surge on a website. Crowdsourcing means work being done by a "crowd" of people; It also characterises Internet and mobile applications collecting information from the public such as online macroseismic questionnaires. Like crowdsourcing techniques, flash-sourcing is a
Landslides and Earthquake Lakes from the Wenchuan, China Earthquake - Can it Happen in the U.S.?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stenner, H.; Cydzik, K.; Hamilton, D.; Cattarossi, A.; Mathieson, E.
2008-12-01
The May 12, 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan, China earthquake destroyed five million homes and schools, causing over 87,650 deaths. Landslides, a secondary effect of the shaking, caused much of the devastation. Debris flows buried homes, rock falls crushed cars, and landslides dammed rivers. Blocked roads greatly impeded emergency access, delaying response. Our August 2008 field experience in the affected area reminded us that the western United States faces serious risks posed by earthquake-induced landslides. The topography of the western U.S. is less extreme than that near Wenchuan, but earthquakes may still cause devastating landslides, damming rivers and blocking access to affected areas. After the Wenchuan earthquake, lakes rapidly rose behind landslide dams, threatening millions of lives. One landslide above Beichuan City created Tangjiashan Lake, a massive body of water upstream of Mianyang, an area with 5.2 million people, 30,000 of whom were killed in the quake. Potential failure of the landslide dam put thousands more people at risk from catastrophic flooding. In 1959, the M7.4 Hebgen Lake earthquake in Montana caused a large landslide, which killed 19 people and dammed the Madison River. The Army Corps excavated sluices to keep the dam from failing catastrophically. The Hebgen Lake earthquake ultimately caused 28 deaths, mostly from landslides, but the affected region was sparsely populated. Slopes prone to strong earthquake shaking and landslides in California, Washington, and Oregon have much larger populations at risk. Landslide hazards continue after the earthquake due to the effect strong shaking has on hillslopes, particularly when subjected to subsequent rain. These hazards must be taken into account. Once a landslide blocks a river, rapid and thoughtful action is needed. The Chinese government quickly and safely mitigated landslide dams that posed the greatest risk to people downstream. It took expert geotechnical advice, the speed and resources of the army
Earthquakes trigger the loss of groundwater biodiversity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Galassi, Diana M. P.; Lombardo, Paola; Fiasca, Barbara; di Cioccio, Alessia; di Lorenzo, Tiziana; Petitta, Marco; di Carlo, Piero
2014-09-01
Earthquakes are among the most destructive natural events. The 6 April 2009, 6.3-Mw earthquake in L'Aquila (Italy) markedly altered the karstic Gran Sasso Aquifer (GSA) hydrogeology and geochemistry. The GSA groundwater invertebrate community is mainly comprised of small-bodied, colourless, blind microcrustaceans. We compared abiotic and biotic data from two pre-earthquake and one post-earthquake complete but non-contiguous hydrological years to investigate the effects of the 2009 earthquake on the dominant copepod component of the obligate groundwater fauna. Our results suggest that the massive earthquake-induced aquifer strain biotriggered a flushing of groundwater fauna, with a dramatic decrease in subterranean species abundance. Population turnover rates appeared to have crashed, no longer replenishing the long-standing communities from aquifer fractures, and the aquifer became almost totally deprived of animal life. Groundwater communities are notorious for their low resilience. Therefore, any major disturbance that negatively impacts survival or reproduction may lead to local extinction of species, most of them being the only survivors of phylogenetic lineages extinct at the Earth surface. Given the ecological key role played by the subterranean fauna as decomposers of organic matter and ``ecosystem engineers'', we urge more detailed, long-term studies on the effect of major disturbances to groundwater ecosystems.
Earthquakes trigger the loss of groundwater biodiversity.
Galassi, Diana M P; Lombardo, Paola; Fiasca, Barbara; Di Cioccio, Alessia; Di Lorenzo, Tiziana; Petitta, Marco; Di Carlo, Piero
2014-09-03
Earthquakes are among the most destructive natural events. The 6 April 2009, 6.3-Mw earthquake in L'Aquila (Italy) markedly altered the karstic Gran Sasso Aquifer (GSA) hydrogeology and geochemistry. The GSA groundwater invertebrate community is mainly comprised of small-bodied, colourless, blind microcrustaceans. We compared abiotic and biotic data from two pre-earthquake and one post-earthquake complete but non-contiguous hydrological years to investigate the effects of the 2009 earthquake on the dominant copepod component of the obligate groundwater fauna. Our results suggest that the massive earthquake-induced aquifer strain biotriggered a flushing of groundwater fauna, with a dramatic decrease in subterranean species abundance. Population turnover rates appeared to have crashed, no longer replenishing the long-standing communities from aquifer fractures, and the aquifer became almost totally deprived of animal life. Groundwater communities are notorious for their low resilience. Therefore, any major disturbance that negatively impacts survival or reproduction may lead to local extinction of species, most of them being the only survivors of phylogenetic lineages extinct at the Earth surface. Given the ecological key role played by the subterranean fauna as decomposers of organic matter and "ecosystem engineers", we urge more detailed, long-term studies on the effect of major disturbances to groundwater ecosystems.
Earthquakes trigger the loss of groundwater biodiversity
Galassi, Diana M. P.; Lombardo, Paola; Fiasca, Barbara; Di Cioccio, Alessia; Di Lorenzo, Tiziana; Petitta, Marco; Di Carlo, Piero
2014-01-01
Earthquakes are among the most destructive natural events. The 6 April 2009, 6.3-Mw earthquake in L'Aquila (Italy) markedly altered the karstic Gran Sasso Aquifer (GSA) hydrogeology and geochemistry. The GSA groundwater invertebrate community is mainly comprised of small-bodied, colourless, blind microcrustaceans. We compared abiotic and biotic data from two pre-earthquake and one post-earthquake complete but non-contiguous hydrological years to investigate the effects of the 2009 earthquake on the dominant copepod component of the obligate groundwater fauna. Our results suggest that the massive earthquake-induced aquifer strain biotriggered a flushing of groundwater fauna, with a dramatic decrease in subterranean species abundance. Population turnover rates appeared to have crashed, no longer replenishing the long-standing communities from aquifer fractures, and the aquifer became almost totally deprived of animal life. Groundwater communities are notorious for their low resilience. Therefore, any major disturbance that negatively impacts survival or reproduction may lead to local extinction of species, most of them being the only survivors of phylogenetic lineages extinct at the Earth surface. Given the ecological key role played by the subterranean fauna as decomposers of organic matter and “ecosystem engineers”, we urge more detailed, long-term studies on the effect of major disturbances to groundwater ecosystems. PMID:25182013
Earthquake scenarios based on lessons from the past
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Solakov, Dimcho; Simeonova, Stella; Aleksandrova, Irena; Popova, Iliana
2010-05-01
Earthquakes are the most deadly of the natural disasters affecting the human environment; indeed catastrophic earthquakes have marked the whole human history. Global seismic hazard and vulnerability to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that are prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The implementation of the earthquake scenarios into the policies for seismic risk reduction will allow focusing on the prevention of earthquake effects rather than on intervention following the disasters. The territory of Bulgaria (situated in the eastern part of the Balkan Peninsula) represents a typical example of high seismic risk area. Over the centuries, Bulgaria has experienced strong earthquakes. At the beginning of the 20-the century (from 1901 to 1928) five earthquakes with magnitude larger than or equal to MS=7.0 occurred in Bulgaria. However, no such large earthquakes occurred in Bulgaria since 1928, which may induce non-professionals to underestimate the earthquake risk. The 1986 earthquake of magnitude MS=5.7 occurred in the central northern Bulgaria (near the town of Strazhitsa) is the strongest quake after 1928. Moreover, the seismicity of the neighboring countries, like Greece, Turkey, former Yugoslavia and Romania (especially Vrancea-Romania intermediate earthquakes), influences the seismic hazard in Bulgaria. In the present study deterministic scenarios (expressed in seismic intensity) for two Bulgarian cities (Rouse and Plovdiv) are presented. The work on
Celebi, M.
2004-01-01
The recorded responses of an Anchorage, Alaska, building during four significant earthquakes that occurred in 2002 are studied. Two earthquakes, including the 3 November 2002 M7.9 Denali fault earthquake, with epicenters approximately 275 km from the building, generated long trains of long-period (>1 s) surface waves. The other two smaller earthquakes occurred at subcrustal depths practically beneath Anchorage and produced higher frequency motions. These two pairs of earthquakes have different impacts on the response of the building. Higher modes are more pronounced in the building response during the smaller nearby events. The building responses indicate that the close-coupling of translational and torsional modes causes a significant beating effect. It is also possible that there is some resonance occurring due to the site frequency being close to the structural frequency. Identification of dynamic characteristics and behavior of buildings can provide important lessons for future earthquake-resistant designs and retrofit of existing buildings. ?? 2004, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lu, Kunquan; Cao, Zexian; Hou, Meiying; Jiang, Zehui; Shen, Rong; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Gang; Liu, Jixing
2018-03-01
The physical mechanism of earthquake remains a challenging issue to be clarified. Seismologists used to attribute shallow earthquake to the elastic rebound of crustal rocks. The seismic energy calculated following the elastic rebound theory and with the data of experimental results upon rocks, however, shows a large discrepancy with measurement — a fact that has been dubbed as “the heat flow paradox”. For the intermediate-focus and deep-focus earthquakes, both occurring in the region of the mantle, there is not reasonable explanation either. This paper will discuss the physical mechanism of earthquake from a new perspective, starting from the fact that both the crust and the mantle are discrete collective system of matters with slow dynamics, as well as from the basic principles of physics, especially some new concepts of condensed matter physics emerged in the recent years. (1) Stress distribution in earth’s crust: Without taking the tectonic force into account, according to the rheological principle of “everything flows”, the normal stress and transverse stress must be balanced due to the effect of gravitational pressure over a long period of time, thus no differential stress in the original crustal rocks is to be expected. The tectonic force is successively transferred and accumulated via stick-slip motions of rock blocks to squeeze the fault gouge and then exerted upon other rock blocks. The superposition of such additional lateral tectonic force and the original stress gives rise to the real-time stress in crustal rocks. The mechanical characteristics of fault gouge are different from rocks as it consists of granular matters. The elastic moduli of the fault gouges are much less than those of rocks, and they become larger with increasing pressure. This peculiarity of the fault gouge leads to a tectonic force increasing with depth in a nonlinear fashion. The distribution and variation of the tectonic stress in the crust are specified. (2) The
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ortega Culaciati, F. H.; Simons, M.; Minson, S. E.; Owen, S. E.; Moore, A. W.; Hetland, E. A.
2011-12-01
We aim to quantify the spatial distribution of after-slip following the Great 11 March 2011 Tohoku-Oki (Mw 9.0) earthquake and its implications for the occurrence of a future Great Earthquake, particularly in the Ibaraki region of Japan. We use a Bayesian approach (CATMIP algorithm), constrained by on-land Geonet GPS time series, to infer models of after-slip to date in the Japan megathrust. Unlike traditional inverse methods, in which a single optimum model is found, the Bayesian approach allows a complete characterization of the model parameter space by searching a-posteriori estimates of the range of plausible models. We use the Kullback-Liebler information divergence as a metric of the information gain on each subsurface slip patch, to quantify the extent to which land-based geodetic observations can constrain the upper parts of the megathrust, where the Great Tohoku-Oki earthquake took place. We aim to understand the relationships of spatial distribution of fault slip behavior in the different stages of the seismic cycle. We compare our post-seismic slip distributions to inter- and co-seismic slip distributions obtained through a Bayesian methodology as well as through traditional (optimization) inverse estimates in the published literature. We discuss implications of these analyses for the occurrence of a large earthquake in the Japan megathrust regions adjacent to the Great Tohoku-Oki earthquake.
The Effect of the 2015 Earthquake on the Bacterial Community Compositions in Water in Nepal
Uprety, Sital; Hong, Pei-Ying; Sadik, Nora; Dangol, Bipin; Adhikari, Rameswor; Jutla, Antarpreet; Shisler, Joanna L.; Degnan, Patrick; Nguyen, Thanh H.
2017-01-01
We conducted a study to examine the effect of seasonal variations and the disruptive effects of the 2015 Nepal earthquake on microbial communities associated with drinking water sources. We first characterized the microbial communities of water samples in two Nepali regions (Kathmandu and Jhapa) to understand the stability of microbial communities in water samples collected in 2014. We analyzed additional water samples from the same sources collected from May to August 2015, allowing the comparison of samples from dry-to-dry season and from dry-to-monsoon seasons. Emphasis was placed on microbes responsible for maintaining the geobiochemical characteristics of water (e.g., ammonia-oxidizing and nitrite-oxidizing bacteria and archaea and sulfate-reducing bacteria) and opportunistic pathogens often found in water (Acinetobacter). When examining samples from Jhapa, we identified that most geobiochemical microbe populations remained similar. When examining samples from Kathmandu, the abundance of microbial genera responsible for maintaining the geobiochemical characteristics of water increased immediately after the earthquake and decreased 8 months later (December 2015). In addition, microbial source tracking was used to monitor human fecal contamination and revealed deteriorated water quality in some specific sampling sites in Kathmandu post-earthquake. This study highlights a disruption of the environmental microbiome after an earthquake and the restoration of these microbial communities as a function of time and sanitation practices. PMID:29270153
Twitter earthquake detection: Earthquake monitoring in a social world
Earle, Paul S.; Bowden, Daniel C.; Guy, Michelle R.
2011-01-01
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets) with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word "earthquake" clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.
Triggered earthquakes and the 1811-1812 New Madrid, central United States, earthquake sequence
Hough, S.E.
2001-01-01
The 1811-1812 New Madrid, central United States, earthquake sequence included at least three events with magnitudes estimated at well above M 7.0. I discuss evidence that the sequence also produced at least three substantial triggered events well outside the New Madrid Seismic Zone, most likely in the vicinity of Cincinnati, Ohio. The largest of these events is estimated to have a magnitude in the low to mid M 5 range. Events of this size are large enough to cause damage, especially in regions with low levels of preparedness. Remotely triggered earthquakes have been observed in tectonically active regions in recent years, but not previously in stable continental regions. The results of this study suggest, however, that potentially damaging triggered earthquakes may be common following large mainshocks in stable continental regions. Thus, in areas of low seismic activity such as central/ eastern North America, the hazard associated with localized source zones might be more far reaching than previously recognized. The results also provide additional evidence that intraplate crust is critically stressed, such that small stress changes are especially effective at triggering earthquakes.
Urban Earthquakes - Reducing Building Collapse Through Education
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bilham, R.
2004-12-01
Fatalities from earthquakes rose from 6000k to 9000k/year in the past decade, yet the ratio of numbers of earthquake fatalities to instantaneous population continues to fall. Since 1950 the ratio declined worldwide by a factor of three, but in some countries the ratio has changed little. E.g in Iran, 1 in 3000 people can expect to die in an earthquake, a percentage that has not changed significantly since 1890. Fatalities from earthquakes remain high in those countries that have traditionally suffered from frequent large earthquakes (Turkey, Iran, Japan, and China), suggesting that the exposure time of recently increased urban populations in other countries may be too short to have interacted with earthquakes with long recurrence intervals. This in turn, suggests that disasters of unprecendented size will occur (more than 1 million fatalities) when future large earthquakes occur close to megacities. However, population growth is most rapid in cities of less than 1 million people in the developing nations, where the financial ability to implement earthquake resistant construction methods is limited. In that structural collapse can often be traced to ignorance about the forces at work in an earthquake, the future collapse of buildings presently under construction could be much reduced were contractors, builders and occupants educated in the principles of earthquake resistant assembly. Education of builders who are tempted to cut assembly costs is likely to be more cost effective than material aid.
Historical and recent large megathrust earthquakes in Chile
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ruiz, S.; Madariaga, R.
2018-05-01
Recent earthquakes in Chile, 2014, Mw 8.2 Iquique, 2015, Mw 8.3 Illapel and 2016, Mw 7.6 Chiloé have put in evidence some problems with the straightforward application of ideas about seismic gaps, earthquake periodicity and the general forecast of large megathrust earthquakes. In northern Chile, before the 2014 Iquique earthquake 4 large earthquakes were reported in written chronicles, 1877, 1786, 1615 and 1543; in North-Central Chile, before the 2015 Illapel event, 3 large earthquakes 1943, 1880, 1730 were reported; and the 2016 Chiloé earthquake occurred in the southern zone of the 1960 Valdivia megathrust rupture, where other large earthquakes occurred in 1575, 1737 and 1837. The periodicity of these events has been proposed as a good long-term forecasting. However, the seismological aspects of historical Chilean earthquakes were inferred mainly from old chronicles written before subduction in Chile was discovered. Here we use the original description of earthquakes to re-analyze the historical archives. Our interpretation shows that a-priori ideas, like seismic gaps and characteristic earthquakes, influenced the estimation of magnitude, location and rupture area of the older Chilean events. On the other hand, the advance in the characterization of the rheological aspects that controlled the contact between Nazca and South-American plate and the study of tsunami effects provide better estimations of the location of historical earthquakes along the seismogenic plate interface. Our re-interpretation of historical earthquakes shows a large diversity of earthquakes types; there is a major difference between giant earthquakes that break the entire plate interface and those of Mw 8.0 that only break a portion of it.
Crustal earthquake triggering by pre-historic great earthquakes on subduction zone thrusts
Sherrod, Brian; Gomberg, Joan
2014-01-01
Triggering of earthquakes on upper plate faults during and shortly after recent great (M>8.0) subduction thrust earthquakes raises concerns about earthquake triggering following Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes. Of particular regard to Cascadia was the previously noted, but only qualitatively identified, clustering of M>~6.5 crustal earthquakes in the Puget Sound region between about 1200–900 cal yr B.P. and the possibility that this was triggered by a great Cascadia thrust subduction thrust earthquake, and therefore portends future such clusters. We confirm quantitatively the extraordinary nature of the Puget Sound region crustal earthquake clustering between 1200–900 cal yr B.P., at least over the last 16,000. We conclude that this cluster was not triggered by the penultimate, and possibly full-margin, great Cascadia subduction thrust earthquake. However, we also show that the paleoseismic record for Cascadia is consistent with conclusions of our companion study of the global modern record outside Cascadia, that M>8.6 subduction thrust events have a high probability of triggering at least one or more M>~6.5 crustal earthquakes.
A fluid-driven earthquake swarm on the margin of the Yellowstone caldera
Shelly, David R.; Hill, David P.; Massin, Frederick; Farrell, Jamie; Smith, Robert B.; Taira, Taka'aki
2013-01-01
Over the past several decades, the Yellowstone caldera has experienced frequent earthquake swarms and repeated cycles of uplift and subsidence, reflecting dynamic volcanic and tectonic processes. Here, we examine the detailed spatial-temporal evolution of the 2010 Madison Plateau swarm, which occurred near the northwest boundary of the Yellowstone caldera. To fully explore the evolution of the swarm, we integrated procedures for seismic waveform-based earthquake detection with precise double-difference relative relocation. Using cross-correlation of continuous seismic data and waveform templates constructed from cataloged events, we detected and precisely located 8710 earthquakes during the three-week swarm, nearly four times the number of events included in the standard catalog. This high-resolution analysis reveals distinct migration of earthquake activity over the course of the swarm. The swarm initiated abruptly on January 17, 2010 at about 10 km depth and expanded dramatically outward (both shallower and deeper) over time, primarily along a NNW-striking, ~55º ENE-dipping structure. To explain these characteristics, we hypothesize that the swarm was triggered by the rupture of a zone of confined high-pressure aqueous fluids into a pre-existing crustal fault system, prompting release of accumulated stress. The high-pressure fluid injection may have been accommodated by hybrid shear and dilatational failure, as is commonly observed in exhumed hydrothermally affected fault zones. This process has likely occurred repeatedly in Yellowstone as aqueous fluids exsolved from magma migrate into the brittle crust, and it may be a key element in the observed cycles of caldera uplift and subsidence.
Earthquake triggering at alaskan volcanoes following the 3 November 2002 denali fault earthquake
Moran, S.C.; Power, J.A.; Stihler, S.D.; Sanchez, J.J.; Caplan-Auerbach, J.
2004-01-01
The 3 November 2002 Mw 7.9 Denali fault earthquake provided an excellent opportunity to investigate triggered earthquakes at Alaskan volcanoes. The Alaska Volcano Observatory operates short-period seismic networks on 24 historically active volcanoes in Alaska, 247-2159 km distant from the mainshock epicenter. We searched for evidence of triggered seismicity by examining the unfiltered waveforms for all stations in each volcano network for ???1 hr after the Mw 7.9 arrival time at each network and for significant increases in located earthquakes in the hours after the mainshock. We found compelling evidence for triggering only at the Katmai volcanic cluster (KVC, 720-755 km southwest of the epicenter), where small earthquakes with distinct P and 5 arrivals appeared within the mainshock coda at one station and a small increase in located earthquakes occurred for several hours after the mainshock. Peak dynamic stresses of ???0.1 MPa at Augustine Volcano (560 km southwest of the epicenter) are significantly lower than those recorded in Yellowstone and Utah (>3000 km southeast of the epicenter), suggesting that strong directivity effects were at least partly responsible for the lack of triggering at Alaskan volcanoes. We describe other incidents of earthquake-induced triggering in the KVC, and outline a qualitative magnitude/distance-dependent triggering threshold. We argue that triggering results from the perturbation of magmatic-hydrothermal systems in the KVC and suggest that the comparative lack of triggering at other Alaskan volcanoes could be a result of differences in the nature of magmatic-hydrothermal systems.
Uchida, N.; Matsuzawa, T.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Imanishi, K.; Okada, T.; Hasegawa, A.
2007-01-01
We determine the source parameters of a M4.9 ?? 0.1 'characteristic earthquake' sequence and its accompanying microearthquakes at ???50 km depth on the subduction plate boundary offshore of Kamaishi, NE Japan. The microearthquakes tend to occur more frequently in the latter half of the recurrence intervals of the M4.9 ?? 0.1 events. Our results show that the microearthquakes are repeating events and they are located not only around but also within the slip area for the 2001 M4.8 event. From the hierarchical structure of slip areas and smaller stress drops for the microearthquakes compared to the M4.8 event, we infer the small repeating earthquakes rupture relatively weak patches in and around the slip area for the M4.8 event and their activity reflects a stress concentration process and/or change in frictional property (healing) at the area. We also infer the patches for the M4.9 ?? 0.1 and other repeating earthquakes undergo aseismic slip during their interseismic period. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.
Forcellini, Davide; Tarantino, Angelo Marcello
2014-01-01
Soil liquefaction has been observed worldwide during recent major earthquakes with induced effects responsible for much of the damage, disruption of function, and considerable replacement expenses for structures. The phenomenon has not been documented in recent time with such damage in Italian context before the recent Emilia-Romagna Earthquake (May 2012). The main lateral spreading and vertical deformations affected the stability of many buildings and impacted social life inducing valuable lessons on liquefaction risk assessment and remediation. This paper aims first of all to reproduce soil response to liquefaction-induced lateral effects and thus to evaluate stone column mitigation technique effectiveness by gradually increasing the extension of remediation, in order to achieve a satisfactory lower level of permanent deformations. The study is based on the use of a FE computational interface able to analyse the earthquake-induced three-dimensional pore pressure generation adopting one of the most credited nonlinear theories in order to assess realistically the displacements connected to lateral spreading. PMID:24592148
Forcellini, Davide; Tarantino, Angelo Marcello
2014-01-01
Soil liquefaction has been observed worldwide during recent major earthquakes with induced effects responsible for much of the damage, disruption of function, and considerable replacement expenses for structures. The phenomenon has not been documented in recent time with such damage in Italian context before the recent Emilia-Romagna Earthquake (May 2012). The main lateral spreading and vertical deformations affected the stability of many buildings and impacted social life inducing valuable lessons on liquefaction risk assessment and remediation. This paper aims first of all to reproduce soil response to liquefaction-induced lateral effects and thus to evaluate stone column mitigation technique effectiveness by gradually increasing the extension of remediation, in order to achieve a satisfactory lower level of permanent deformations. The study is based on the use of a FE computational interface able to analyse the earthquake-induced three-dimensional pore pressure generation adopting one of the most credited nonlinear theories in order to assess realistically the displacements connected to lateral spreading.
Earthquake location in island arcs
Engdahl, E.R.; Dewey, J.W.; Fujita, K.
1982-01-01
A comprehensive data set of selected teleseismic P-wave arrivals and local-network P- and S-wave arrivals from large earthquakes occurring at all depths within a small section of the central Aleutians is used to examine the general problem of earthquake location in island arcs. Reference hypocenters for this special data set are determined for shallow earthquakes from local-network data and for deep earthquakes from combined local and teleseismic data by joint inversion for structure and location. The high-velocity lithospheric slab beneath the central Aleutians may displace hypocenters that are located using spherically symmetric Earth models; the amount of displacement depends on the position of the earthquakes with respect to the slab and on whether local or teleseismic data are used to locate the earthquakes. Hypocenters for trench and intermediate-depth events appear to be minimally biased by the effects of slab structure on rays to teleseismic stations. However, locations of intermediate-depth events based on only local data are systematically displaced southwards, the magnitude of the displacement being proportional to depth. Shallow-focus events along the main thrust zone, although well located using only local-network data, are severely shifted northwards and deeper, with displacements as large as 50 km, by slab effects on teleseismic travel times. Hypocenters determined by a method that utilizes seismic ray tracing through a three-dimensional velocity model of the subduction zone, derived by thermal modeling, are compared to results obtained by the method of joint hypocenter determination (JHD) that formally assumes a laterally homogeneous velocity model over the source region and treats all raypath anomalies as constant station corrections to the travel-time curve. The ray-tracing method has the theoretical advantage that it accounts for variations in travel-time anomalies within a group of events distributed over a sizable region of a dipping, high
Triggering of repeating earthquakes in central California
Wu, Chunquan; Gomberg, Joan; Ben-Naim, Eli; Johnson, Paul
2014-01-01
Dynamic stresses carried by transient seismic waves have been found capable of triggering earthquakes instantly in various tectonic settings. Delayed triggering may be even more common, but the mechanisms are not well understood. Catalogs of repeating earthquakes, earthquakes that recur repeatedly at the same location, provide ideal data sets to test the effects of transient dynamic perturbations on the timing of earthquake occurrence. Here we employ a catalog of 165 families containing ~2500 total repeating earthquakes to test whether dynamic perturbations from local, regional, and teleseismic earthquakes change recurrence intervals. The distance to the earthquake generating the perturbing waves is a proxy for the relative potential contributions of static and dynamic deformations, because static deformations decay more rapidly with distance. Clear changes followed the nearby 2004 Mw6 Parkfield earthquake, so we study only repeaters prior to its origin time. We apply a Monte Carlo approach to compare the observed number of shortened recurrence intervals following dynamic perturbations with the distribution of this number estimated for randomized perturbation times. We examine the comparison for a series of dynamic stress peak amplitude and distance thresholds. The results suggest a weak correlation between dynamic perturbations in excess of ~20 kPa and shortened recurrence intervals, for both nearby and remote perturbations.
Sensitivity of Earthquake Loss Estimates to Source Modeling Assumptions and Uncertainty
Reasenberg, Paul A.; Shostak, Nan; Terwilliger, Sharon
2006-01-01
Introduction: This report explores how uncertainty in an earthquake source model may affect estimates of earthquake economic loss. Specifically, it focuses on the earthquake source model for the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) created by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities. The loss calculations are made using HAZUS-MH, a publicly available computer program developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for calculating future losses from earthquakes, floods and hurricanes within the United States. The database built into HAZUS-MH includes a detailed building inventory, population data, data on transportation corridors, bridges, utility lifelines, etc. Earthquake hazard in the loss calculations is based upon expected (median value) ground motion maps called ShakeMaps calculated for the scenario earthquake sources defined in WGCEP. The study considers the effect of relaxing certain assumptions in the WG02 model, and explores the effect of hypothetical reductions in epistemic uncertainty in parts of the model. For example, it addresses questions such as what would happen to the calculated loss distribution if the uncertainty in slip rate in the WG02 model were reduced (say, by obtaining additional geologic data)? What would happen if the geometry or amount of aseismic slip (creep) on the region's faults were better known? And what would be the effect on the calculated loss distribution if the time-dependent earthquake probability were better constrained, either by eliminating certain probability models or by better constraining the inherent randomness in earthquake recurrence? The study does not consider the effect of reducing uncertainty in the hazard introduced through models of attenuation and local site characteristics, although these may have a comparable or greater effect than does source-related uncertainty. Nor does it consider sources of uncertainty in the building inventory, building fragility curves, and other assumptions
Use of GPS and InSAR Technology and its Further Development in Earthquake Modeling
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Donnellan, A.; Lyzenga, G.; Argus, D.; Peltzer, G.; Parker, J.; Webb, F.; Heflin, M.; Zumberge, J.
1999-01-01
Global Positioning System (GPS) data are useful for understanding both interseismic and postseismic deformation. Models of GPS data suggest that the lower crust, lateral heterogeneity, and fault slip, all provide a role in the earthquake cycle.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kourou, Assimina; Ioakeimidou, Anastasia; Mokos, Vasileios; Bakas, Konstantinos
2013-04-01
It is generally accepted that the effects of the disasters can be mainly reduced if people are aware, well informed and motivated towards a culture of disaster prevention and resilience. Particularly, in earthquake prone countries, a continuous update and education of the public, on earthquake risk management issues, is essential. Schools can play a crucial role concerning training and building a disaster prevention culture, among various community groups. Principals and teachers have a key role to play in any school-wide initiative through developing and reviewing awareness policy, developing and revising emergency response plans, holding emergency drills and training the students. During the last decade, the Greek State have done a lot of efforts in order to better educate teachers and students in disaster preparedness and management, such as: a. implementation of the E.P.P.O.'s educational project "Earthquake Protection at Schools" which is addressed mainly to school Principals. The project started right after the 1999 earthquake in Athens. b. publication of educational material for students, teachers and people with disabilities and publication of guidelines concerning the development of emergency plans. c. implementation of projects and elaboration of innovative and mobile experiential educational material connected with school curricula. The aim of the present study is to assess levels of awareness and preparedness concerning earthquake protection issues, as well as risk mitigation behaviours, undertaken by teachers at individual, family and workplace level. Furthermore, the assessment of teachers' current levels of earthquake awareness and preparedness, could lead to conclusions about the effectiveness of State's current Policy. In this framework, specific questionnaires were developed and were addressed to Principals and teachers who were responsible for the preparation of their School Emergency Preparedness Plans. The sample of the survey comprises of
Foreshocks, aftershocks, and earthquake probabilities: Accounting for the landers earthquake
Jones, Lucile M.
1994-01-01
The equation to determine the probability that an earthquake occurring near a major fault will be a foreshock to a mainshock on that fault is modified to include the case of aftershocks to a previous earthquake occurring near the fault. The addition of aftershocks to the background seismicity makes its less probable that an earthquake will be a foreshock, because nonforeshocks have become more common. As the aftershocks decay with time, the probability that an earthquake will be a foreshock increases. However, fault interactions between the first mainshock and the major fault can increase the long-term probability of a characteristic earthquake on that fault, which will, in turn, increase the probability that an event is a foreshock, compensating for the decrease caused by the aftershocks.
Takahashi, Taeko Jane; Ikeda, Nancy A.; Okubo, Paul G.; Sako, Maurice K.; Dow, David C.; Priester, Anna M.; Steiner, Nolan A.
2011-01-01
Although the vast majority of earthquakes in the State of Hawaii are closely related to the active volcanism associated with the southeastern part of the Island of Hawai‘i, the October 2006 Kīholo Bay and Māhukona earthquakes clearly suggest the devastating potential of deeper lithospheric earthquakes. Large earthquakes thought to be nearly M7 have struck near the islands of Lāna‘i (1871) and Maui (1938). It is thought that these, like the 2006 earthquakes, were deep lithospheric flexure earthquakes (Wyss and Koyanagi, 1992; Klein and others, 2001). Thus, it is important to recognize the potential seismic hazard posed by such earthquakes beneath the older Hawaiian Islands. The data and observations afforded by the 2006 earthquakes promise to improve probabilistic seismic hazards modeling in Hawai‘i. The effects of the October 15, 2006, Kīholo Bay-Māhukona earthquakes are shown in images taken from the coastal route along the northern half of the Island of Hawai‘i, where damage was the most concentrated. The direction of presentation is counter-clockwise, from Pa‘auilo on the eastern or windward (Hāmākua) side to Kealakekua Bay on the western or leeward (Kona) side. A list of sites, their locations, coordinates, and distance from the epicenter at Kīholo Bay are given in table 1. A Google Earth map (fig. 7) and a topographic map (fig. 8) pinpoint the 36 sites where damage was documented and digital images were compiled for this collection.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Irikura, Kojiro; Miyakoshi, Ken; Kamae, Katsuhiro; Yoshida, Kunikazu; Somei, Kazuhiro; Kurahashi, Susumu; Miyake, Hiroe
2017-01-01
A two-stage scaling relationship of the source parameters for crustal earthquakes in Japan has previously been constructed, in which source parameters obtained from the results of waveform inversion of strong motion data are combined with parameters estimated based on geological and geomorphological surveys. A three-stage scaling relationship was subsequently developed to extend scaling to crustal earthquakes with magnitudes greater than M w 7.4. The effectiveness of these scaling relationships was then examined based on the results of waveform inversion of 18 recent crustal earthquakes ( M w 5.4-6.9) that occurred in Japan since the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake. The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, with M w 7.0, was one of the largest earthquakes to occur since dense and accurate strong motion observation networks, such as K-NET and KiK-net, were deployed after the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake. We examined the applicability of the scaling relationships of the source parameters of crustal earthquakes in Japan to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake. The rupture area and asperity area were determined based on slip distributions obtained from waveform inversion of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake observations. We found that the relationship between the rupture area and the seismic moment for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake follows the second-stage scaling within one standard deviation ( σ = 0.14). The ratio of the asperity area to the rupture area for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake is nearly the same as ratios previously obtained for crustal earthquakes. Furthermore, we simulated the ground motions of this earthquake using a characterized source model consisting of strong motion generation areas (SMGAs) based on the empirical Green's function (EGF) method. The locations and areas of the SMGAs were determined through comparison between the synthetic ground motions and observed motions. The sizes of the SMGAs were nearly coincident with the asperities with large slip. The synthetic
Evidence for Ancient Mesoamerican Earthquakes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kovach, R. L.; Garcia, B.
2001-12-01
Evidence for past earthquake damage at Mesoamerican ruins is often overlooked because of the invasive effects of tropical vegetation and is usually not considered as a casual factor when restoration and reconstruction of many archaeological sites are undertaken. Yet the proximity of many ruins to zones of seismic activity would argue otherwise. Clues as to the types of damage which should be soughtwere offered in September 1999 when the M = 7.5 Oaxaca earthquake struck the ruins of Monte Alban, Mexico, where archaeological renovations were underway. More than 20 structures were damaged, 5 of them seriously. Damage features noted were walls out of plumb, fractures in walls, floors, basal platforms and tableros, toppling of columns, and deformation, settling and tumbling of walls. A Modified Mercalli Intensity of VII (ground accelerations 18-34 %b) occurred at the site. Within the diffuse landward extension of the Caribbean plate boundary zone M = 7+ earthquakes occur with repeat times of hundreds of years arguing that many Maya sites were subjected to earthquakes. Damage to re-erected and reinforced stelae, walls, and buildings were witnessed at Quirigua, Guatemala, during an expedition underway when then 1976 M = 7.5 Guatemala earthquake on the Motagua fault struck. Excavations also revealed evidence (domestic pttery vessels and skeleton of a child crushed under fallen walls) of an ancient earthquake occurring about the teim of the demise and abandonment of Quirigua in the late 9th century. Striking evidence for sudden earthquake building collapse at the end of the Mayan Classic Period ~A.D. 889 was found at Benque Viejo (Xunantunich), Belize, located 210 north of Quirigua. It is argued that a M = 7.5 to 7.9 earthquake at the end of the Maya Classic period centered in the vicinity of the Chixoy-Polochic and Motagua fault zones cound have produced the contemporaneous earthquake damage to the above sites. As a consequences this earthquake may have accelerated the
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ohyanagi, S.; Dileonardo, C.
2013-12-01
As a natural phenomenon earthquake occurrence is difficult to predict. Statistical analysis of earthquake data was performed using candlestick chart and Bollinger Band methods. These statistical methods, commonly used in the financial world to analyze market trends were tested against earthquake data. Earthquakes above Mw 4.0 located on shore of Sanriku (37.75°N ~ 41.00°N, 143.00°E ~ 144.50°E) from February 1973 to May 2013 were selected for analysis. Two specific patterns in earthquake occurrence were recognized through the analysis. One is a spread of candlestick prior to the occurrence of events greater than Mw 6.0. A second pattern shows convergence in the Bollinger Band, which implies a positive or negative change in the trend of earthquakes. Both patterns match general models for the buildup and release of strain through the earthquake cycle, and agree with both the characteristics of the candlestick chart and Bollinger Band analysis. These results show there is a high correlation between patterns in earthquake occurrence and trend analysis by these two statistical methods. The results of this study agree with the appropriateness of the application of these financial analysis methods to the analysis of earthquake occurrence.
Investigation of seismo-ionospheric effects associated with Elazig and Van earthquakes in Turkey
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shagimuratov, I.; Cherniak, Iu.; Zakharenkova, I.; Tepenitsyna, N.; Yakimova, G.
2012-04-01
This report presents the specific features of TEC (total electron content of the ionosphere) behavior associated with earthquakes 08 March 2010 (Elazıg, Mw 6.1) and devastating earthquake with M 7.3, occurred on 23 October 2011 in Van. For this purpose we used both the GPS TEC data from the nearest to the epicenter GPS-IGS stations and constructed TEC maps over Europe. The favorable circumstance for this analysis was the quiet geomagnetic situation during the period previous to the earthquakes (the sum of Kp didn't exceed 5 for first and less than 15 for second case). The typical anomaly was found out one week prior to Elazıg earthquake and three days prior to Van earthquake as the day-time significant increase of TEC at the nearest stations up to the value of 50% relative to the background condition. To estimate the spatial dimensions of seismo-ionospheric anomaly the differential mapping method was used. Anomalous TEC enhancement was registered since 10 UT and reached the maximal value of 45-55% at 18-20 UT. So, the seismo-ionospheric anomaly was found out as the cloud-shaped increase of total electron content of the ionosphere, it had a well-defined local character and it was situated in the immediate vicinity of the earthquake epicenter area. Acknowledgments. The authors are grateful to the IGS community for providing GPS permanent data and to the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program for the detailed earthquake information. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Sevenths Framework Program (FP7/20017-2013) under grant agreement No. 263502 - PRE-EARTHQUAKES project.
Wheeler, Russell L.
2014-01-01
Computation of probabilistic earthquake hazard requires an estimate of Mmax: the moment magnitude of the largest earthquake that is thought to be possible within a specified geographic region. The region specified in this report is the Central and Eastern United States and adjacent Canada. Parts A and B of this report describe the construction of a global catalog of moderate to large earthquakes that occurred worldwide in tectonic analogs of the Central and Eastern United States. Examination of histograms of the magnitudes of these earthquakes allows estimation of Central and Eastern United States Mmax. The catalog and Mmax estimates derived from it are used in the 2014 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey national seismic-hazard maps. Part A deals with prehistoric earthquakes, and this part deals with historical events.
Images of crust beneath southern California will aid study of earthquakes and their effects
Fuis, G.S.; Okaya, D.A.; Clayton, R.W.; Lutter, W.J.; Ryberg, T.; Brocher, T.M.; Henyey, T.M.; Benthien, M.L.; Davis, P.M.; Mori, J.; Catchings, R.D.; ten Brink, Uri S.; Kohler, M.D.; Klitgord, Kim D.; Bohannon, R.G.
1996-01-01
The Whittier Narrows earthquake of 1987 and the Northridge earthquake of 1991 highlighted the earthquake hazards associated with buried faults in the Los Angeles region. A more thorough knowledge of the subsurface structure of southern California is needed to reveal these and other buried faults and to aid us in understanding how the earthquake-producing machinery works in this region.
Understanding earthquake hazards in urban areas - Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project
Boyd, Oliver S.
2012-01-01
The region surrounding Evansville, Indiana, has experienced minor damage from earthquakes several times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and the proximity of Evansville to the Wabash Valley and New Madrid seismic zones, there is concern among nearby communities about hazards from earthquakes. Earthquakes currently cannot be predicted, but scientists can estimate how strongly the ground is likely to shake as a result of an earthquake and are able to design structures to withstand this estimated ground shaking. Earthquake-hazard maps provide one way of conveying such information and can help the region of Evansville prepare for future earthquakes and reduce earthquake-caused loss of life and financial and structural loss. The Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project (EAEHMP) has produced three types of hazard maps for the Evansville area: (1) probabilistic seismic-hazard maps show the ground motion that is expected to be exceeded with a given probability within a given period of time; (2) scenario ground-shaking maps show the expected shaking from two specific scenario earthquakes; (3) liquefaction-potential maps show how likely the strong ground shaking from the scenario earthquakes is to produce liquefaction. These maps complement the U.S. Geological Survey's National Seismic Hazard Maps but are more detailed regionally and take into account surficial geology, soil thickness, and soil stiffness; these elements greatly affect ground shaking.
76 FR 8712 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting
Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2011-02-15
... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting AGENCY: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of open meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction... Committee's 2011 Annual Report of the Effectiveness of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stewart, Craig A.; Miranda, Elena A.
2017-12-01
We investigate how the rheological evolution of shear zone rocks from beneath the brittle-ductile transition (BDT) is affected by coeval ductile shear and pseudotachylyte development associated with seismicity during the earthquake cycle. We focus our study on footwall rocks of the South Mountains core complex, and we use electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) analyses to examine how strain is localized in granodiorite mylonites both prior to and during pseudotachylyte development beneath the BDT. In mylonites that are host to pseudotachylytes, deformation is partitioned into quartz, where quartz exhibits crystallographic-preferred orientation patterns and microstructures indicative of dynamic recrystallization during dislocation creep. Grain size reduction during dynamic recrystallization led to the onset of grain boundary sliding (GBS) accommodated by fluid-assisted grain size-sensitive (GSS) creep, localizing strain in quartz-rich layers prior to pseudotachylyte development. The foliation-parallel zones of GBS in the host mylonites, and the presence of GBS traits in polycrystalline quartz survivor clasts indicate that GBS zones were the ductile precursors to in situ pseudotachylyte generation. During pseudotachylyte development, strain was partitioned into the melt phase, and GSS deformation in the survivor clasts continued until crystallization of melt impeded flow, inducing pseudotachylyte development in other GBS zones. We interpret the coeval pseudotachylytes with ductile precursors as evidence of seismic events near the BDT. Grain size piezometry yields high differential stresses in both host mylonites ( 160 MPa) and pseudotachylyte survivor clasts (> 200 MPa), consistent with high stresses during interseismic and coseismic phases of the earthquake cycle, respectively.
Identified EM Earthquake Precursors
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jones, Kenneth, II; Saxton, Patrick
2014-05-01
recurrence, duration, and frequency response. At the Southern California field sites, one loop antenna was positioned for omni-directional reception and also detected a strong First Schumann Resonance; however, additional Schumann Resonances were absent. At the Timpson, TX field sites, loop antennae were positioned for directional reception, due to earthquake-induced, hydraulic fracturing activity currently conducted by the oil and gas industry. Two strong signals, one moderately strong signal, and approximately 6-8 weaker signals were detected in the immediate vicinity. The three stronger signals were mapped by a biangulation technique, followed by a triangulation technique for confirmation. This was the first antenna mapping technique ever performed for determining possible earthquake epicenters. Six and a half months later, Timpson experienced two M4 (M4.1 and M4.3) earthquakes on September 2, 2013 followed by a M2.4 earthquake three days later, all occurring at a depth of five kilometers. The Timpson earthquake activity now has a cyclical rate and a forecast was given to the proper authorities. As a result, the Southern California and Timpson, TX field results led to an improved design and construction of a third prototype antenna. With a loop antenna array, a viable communication system, and continuous monitoring, a full fracture cycle can be established and observed in real-time. In addition, field data could be reviewed quickly for assessment and lead to a much more improved earthquake forecasting capability. The EM precursors determined by this method appear to surpass all prior precursor claims, and the general public will finally receive long overdue forecasting.
Long-term Postseismic Deformation Following the 1964 Alaska Earthquake
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Freymueller, J. T.; Cohen, S. C.; Hreinsdöttir, S.; Suito, H.
2003-12-01
Geodetic data provide a rich data set describing the postseismic deformation that followed the 1964 Alaska earthquake (Mw 9.2). This is particularly true for vertical deformation, since tide gauges and leveling surveys provide extensive spatial coverage. Leveling was carried out over all of the major roads of Alaska in 1964-65, and over the last several years we have resurveyed an extensive data set using GPS. Along Turnagain Arm of Cook Inlet, south of Anchorage, a trench-normal profile was surveyed repeatedly over the first decade after the earthquake, and many of these sites have been surveyed with GPS. After using a geoid model to correct for the difference between geometric and orthometric heights, the leveling+GPS surveys reveal up to 1.25 meters of uplift since 1964. The largest uplifts are concentrated in the northern part of the Kenai Peninsula, SW of Turnagain Arm. In some places, steep gradients in the cumulative uplift measurements point to a very shallow source for the deformation. The average 1964-late 1990s uplift rates were substantially higher than the present-day uplift rates, which rarely exceed 10 mm/yr. Both leveling and tide gauge data document a decay in uplift rate over time as the postseismic signal decreases. However, even today the postseismic deformation represents a substantial portion of the total observe deformation signal, illustrating that very long-lived postseismic deformation is an important element of the subduction zone earthquake cycle for the very largest earthquakes. This is in contrast to much smaller events, such as M~8 earthquakes, for which postseismic deformation in many cases decays within a few years. This suggests that the very largest earthquakes may excite different processes than smaller events.
Continuing megathrust earthquake potential in Chile after the 2014 Iquique earthquake
Hayes, Gavin P.; Herman, Matthew W.; Barnhart, William D.; Furlong, Kevin P.; Riquelme, Sebástian; Benz, Harley M.; Bergman, Eric; Barrientos, Sergio; Earle, Paul S.; Samsonov, Sergey
2014-01-01
The seismic gap theory identifies regions of elevated hazard based on a lack of recent seismicity in comparison with other portions of a fault. It has successfully explained past earthquakes (see, for example, ref. 2) and is useful for qualitatively describing where large earthquakes might occur. A large earthquake had been expected in the subduction zone adjacent to northern Chile which had not ruptured in a megathrust earthquake since a M ~8.8 event in 1877. On 1 April 2014 a M 8.2 earthquake occurred within this seismic gap. Here we present an assessment of the seismotectonics of the March–April 2014 Iquique sequence, including analyses of earthquake relocations, moment tensors, finite fault models, moment deficit calculations and cumulative Coulomb stress transfer. This ensemble of information allows us to place the sequence within the context of regional seismicity and to identify areas of remaining and/or elevated hazard. Our results constrain the size and spatial extent of rupture, and indicate that this was not the earthquake that had been anticipated. Significant sections of the northern Chile subduction zone have not ruptured in almost 150 years, so it is likely that future megathrust earthquakes will occur to the south and potentially to the north of the 2014 Iquique sequence.
Continuing megathrust earthquake potential in Chile after the 2014 Iquique earthquake.
Hayes, Gavin P; Herman, Matthew W; Barnhart, William D; Furlong, Kevin P; Riquelme, Sebástian; Benz, Harley M; Bergman, Eric; Barrientos, Sergio; Earle, Paul S; Samsonov, Sergey
2014-08-21
The seismic gap theory identifies regions of elevated hazard based on a lack of recent seismicity in comparison with other portions of a fault. It has successfully explained past earthquakes (see, for example, ref. 2) and is useful for qualitatively describing where large earthquakes might occur. A large earthquake had been expected in the subduction zone adjacent to northern Chile, which had not ruptured in a megathrust earthquake since a M ∼8.8 event in 1877. On 1 April 2014 a M 8.2 earthquake occurred within this seismic gap. Here we present an assessment of the seismotectonics of the March-April 2014 Iquique sequence, including analyses of earthquake relocations, moment tensors, finite fault models, moment deficit calculations and cumulative Coulomb stress transfer. This ensemble of information allows us to place the sequence within the context of regional seismicity and to identify areas of remaining and/or elevated hazard. Our results constrain the size and spatial extent of rupture, and indicate that this was not the earthquake that had been anticipated. Significant sections of the northern Chile subduction zone have not ruptured in almost 150 years, so it is likely that future megathrust earthquakes will occur to the south and potentially to the north of the 2014 Iquique sequence.
Forecast model for great earthquakes at the Nankai Trough subduction zone
Stuart, W.D.
1988-01-01
An earthquake instability model is formulated for recurring great earthquakes at the Nankai Trough subduction zone in southwest Japan. The model is quasistatic, two-dimensional, and has a displacement and velocity dependent constitutive law applied at the fault plane. A constant rate of fault slip at depth represents forcing due to relative motion of the Philippine Sea and Eurasian plates. The model simulates fault slip and stress for all parts of repeated earthquake cycles, including post-, inter-, pre- and coseismic stages. Calculated ground uplift is in agreement with most of the main features of elevation changes observed before and after the M=8.1 1946 Nankaido earthquake. In model simulations, accelerating fault slip has two time-scales. The first time-scale is several years long and is interpreted as an intermediate-term precursor. The second time-scale is a few days long and is interpreted as a short-term precursor. Accelerating fault slip on both time-scales causes anomalous elevation changes of the ground surface over the fault plane of 100 mm or less within 50 km of the fault trace. ?? 1988 Birkha??user Verlag.
Issues on the Japanese Earthquake Hazard Evaluation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hashimoto, M.; Fukushima, Y.; Sagiya, T.
2013-12-01
the discussion of these issues as committee members. However, we are wondering if the basis of these reports is scientifically appropriate. For example, there is no established method to evaluate the maximum size of earthquake, whose record is not known, in a specific area, but the committee made an estimate for the Nankai trough by extrapolating available knowledge. The Japanese policy makers further requested the probability of occurrence of such an event, which the committee had to decline because of the lack of knowledge. This example shows that Japanese earthquake scientists sometimes are involved in an important decision-making and are urged to go beyond the limit of earthquake science. We consider this difficult situation is formed on the basis of the history of the Japanese earthquake science and the 'myth of flawless of science' in the government and society, who often ask for a simple answer. Open discussion with people from other fields of science, such as social and human sciences, and the public would be an effective solution for the public to understand the complexity of the problems and to encourage appropriate counter-measures.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Esposito, Eliana; Violante, Crescenzo; Giunta, Giuseppe; Ángel Hernández, Miguel
2016-04-01
Two strong earthquakes and a number of smaller aftershocks struck El Salvador in the year 2001. The January 13 2001 earthquake, Mw 7.7, occurred along the Cocos plate, 40 km off El Salvador southern coast. It resulted in about 1300 deaths and widespread damage, mainly due to massive landsliding. Two of the largest earthquake-induced landslides, Las Barioleras and Las Colinas (about 2x105 m3) produced major damage to buildings and infrastructures and 500 fatalities. A neighborhood in Santa Tecla, west of San Salvador, was destroyed. The February 13 2001 earthquake, Mw 6.5, occurred 40 km east-southeast of San Salvador. This earthquake caused over 300 fatalities and triggered several landslides over an area of 2,500 km2 mostly in poorly consolidated volcaniclastic deposits. The La Leona landslide (5-7x105 m3) caused 12 fatalities and extensive damage to the Panamerican Highway. Two very large landslides of 1.5 km3 and 12 km3 produced hazardous barrier lakes at Rio El Desague and Rio Jiboa, respectively. More than 16.000 landslides occurred throughout the country after both quakes; most of them occurred in pyroclastic deposits, with a volume less than 1x103m3. The present work aims to define the relationship between the above described earthquake intensity, size and areal distribution of induced landslides, as well as to refine the earthquake intensity in sparsely populated zones by using landslide effects. Landslides triggered by the 2001 seismic sequences provided useful indication for a realistic seismic hazard assessment, providing a basis for understanding, evaluating, and mapping the hazard and risk associated with earthquake-induced landslides.
Du, Feizhou; Wu, Jialing; Fan, Jin; Jiang, Rui; Gu, Ming; He, Xiaowu; Wang, Zhiming; He, Ci
2016-07-26
This study aimed to analyse the injuries sustained by rescue workers in earthquake relief efforts in high altitude areas for improving the ways of how to effectively prevent the injuries. The clinical data of 207 relief workers from four military hospitals in Tibet, who were injured in the Tibetan disaster areas of China during '4.25' Nepal earthquake rescue period, was retrospectively analyzed. The demographic features, sites of injury and causes of injury were investigated. The most frequently injured sites were the ankle-foot and hand-wrist (n = 61, 26.5 %), followed by injuries in leg-knee-calf (n = 22, 9.6 %), head-neck (4.87 %), thoracic and abdominal region (2.6 %) and lower back (3.9 %). The specific high-altitude environment increased the challenges associated with earthquake relief. The specific plateau environment and climate increased the burden and challenge in earthquake relief. The injury distribution data shown in this study demonstrated that effective organization and personnel protection can reduce the injury occurrences. Relief workers were prone to suffering various injuries and diseases under specific high-altitude environment.
Steady, modest slip over multiple earthquake cycles on the Owens Valley and Little Lake fault zones
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Amos, C. B.; Haddon, E. K.; Burgmann, R.; Zielke, O.; Jayko, A. S.
2015-12-01
A comprehensive picture of current plate-boundary deformation requires integration of short-term geodetic records with longer-term geologic strain. Comparing rates of deformation across these time intervals highlights potential time-dependencies in both geodetic and geologic records and yields critical insight into the earthquake deformation process. The southern Walker Lane Belt in eastern California represents one location where short-term strain recorded by geodesy apparently outpaces longer-term geologic fault slip measured from displaced rocks and landforms. This discrepancy persists both for individual structures and across the width of the deforming zone, where ~1 cm/yr of current dextral shear exceeds Quaternary slip rates summed across individual faults. The Owens Valley and Little Lake fault systems form the western boundary of the southern Walker Lane and host a range of published slip rate estimates from ~1 - 7 mm/yr over varying time intervals based on both geodetic and geologic measurements. New analysis of offset geomorphic piercing lines from airborne lidar and field measurements along the Owens Valley fault provides a snapshot of deformation during individual earthquakes and over many seismic cycles. Viewed in context of previously reported ages from pluvial and other landforms in Owens Valley, these offsets suggest slip rates of ~0.6 - 1.6 mm/yr over the past 103 - 105 years. Such rates agree with similar estimates immediately to the south on the Little Lake fault, where lidar measurements indicate dextral slip averaging ~0.6 - 1.3 mm/yr over comparable time intervals. Taken together, these results suggest steady, modest slip in the absence of significant variations over the Mid-to-Late Quaternary for a ~200 km span of the southwestern Walker Lane. Our findings argue against the presence of long-range fault interactions and slip-rate variations for this portion of the larger, regional fault network. This result also suggests that faster slip
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Teddy, Livian; Hardiman, Gagoek; Nuroji; Tudjono, Sri
2017-12-01
Indonesia is an area prone to earthquake that may cause casualties and damage to buildings. The fatalities or the injured are not largely caused by the earthquake, but by building collapse. The collapse of the building is resulted from the building behaviour against the earthquake, and it depends on many factors, such as architectural design, geometry configuration of structural elements in horizontal and vertical plans, earthquake zone, geographical location (distance to earthquake center), soil type, material quality, and construction quality. One of the geometry configurations that may lead to the collapse of the building is irregular configuration of non-parallel system. In accordance with FEMA-451B, irregular configuration in non-parallel system is defined to have existed if the vertical lateral force-retaining elements are neither parallel nor symmetric with main orthogonal axes of the earthquake-retaining axis system. Such configuration may lead to torque, diagonal translation and local damage to buildings. It does not mean that non-parallel irregular configuration should not be formed on architectural design; however the designer must know the consequence of earthquake behaviour against buildings with irregular configuration of non-parallel system. The present research has the objective to identify earthquake behaviour in architectural geometry with irregular configuration of non-parallel system. The present research was quantitative with simulation experimental method. It consisted of 5 models, where architectural data and model structure data were inputted and analyzed using the software SAP2000 in order to find out its performance, and ETAB2015 to determine the eccentricity occurred. The output of the software analysis was tabulated, graphed, compared and analyzed with relevant theories. For areas of strong earthquake zones, avoid designing buildings which wholly form irregular configuration of non-parallel system. If it is inevitable to design a
Impact of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake on river organic carbon provenance: Insight from biomarkers
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Jin; Feng, Xiaojuan; Hilton, Robert; Jin, Zhangdong; Ma, Tian; Zhang, Fei; Li, Gen; Densmore, Alexander; West, A. Joshua
2017-04-01
Large earthquakes can trigger widespread landslides in active mountain belts, which can mobilize biospheric organic carbon (OC) from the soil and vegetation. Rivers can erode and export biospheric particulate organic carbon (POC), which is an export of ecosystem productivity and may result in a CO2 sink if buried in sedimentary deposits. Our previous work showed that the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake increased the discharge of biospheric OC by rivers, due to the increased supply by earthquake triggered landslides (Wang et al., 2016). However, while the OC derived from sedimentary rocks could be accounted for, the source of biospheric OC in rivers before and after the earthquake remains poorly constrained. Here we use suspended sediment samples collected from the Zagunao River before and after the Wenchuan earthquake and measured the specific compounds of OC, including fatty acids, lignin phenols and glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (GDGT) lipids. In combination with the analysis of bulk elemental concentration (C and N) and carbon isotopic ratio, the new data shows differential export patterns for OC components derived from varied terrestrial sources. A high frequency sampling enabled us to explore how the biospheric OC source changes following the earthquake, helping to better understand the link between active tectonics and the carbon cycle. Our results are also important in revealing how sedimentary biomarker records may record past earthquakes.
Tilt precursors before earthquakes on the San Andreas fault, California
Johnston, M.J.S.; Mortensen, C.E.
1974-01-01
An array of 14 biaxial shallow-borehole tiltmeters (at 10-7 radian sensitivity) has been installed along 85 kilometers of the San Andreas fault during the past year. Earthquake-related changes in tilt have been simultaneously observed on up to four independent instruments. At earthquake distances greater than 10 earthquake source dimensions, there are few clear indications of tilt change. For the four instruments with the longest records (>10 months), 26 earthquakes have occurred since July 1973 with at least one instrument closer than 10 source dimensions and 8 earthquakes with more than one instrument within that distance. Precursors in tilt direction have been observed before more than 10 earthquakes or groups of earthquakes, and no similar effect has yet been seen without the occurrence of an earthquake.
Laboratory generated M -6 earthquakes
McLaskey, Gregory C.; Kilgore, Brian D.; Lockner, David A.; Beeler, Nicholas M.
2014-01-01
We consider whether mm-scale earthquake-like seismic events generated in laboratory experiments are consistent with our understanding of the physics of larger earthquakes. This work focuses on a population of 48 very small shocks that are foreshocks and aftershocks of stick–slip events occurring on a 2.0 m by 0.4 m simulated strike-slip fault cut through a large granite sample. Unlike the larger stick–slip events that rupture the entirety of the simulated fault, the small foreshocks and aftershocks are contained events whose properties are controlled by the rigidity of the surrounding granite blocks rather than characteristics of the experimental apparatus. The large size of the experimental apparatus, high fidelity sensors, rigorous treatment of wave propagation effects, and in situ system calibration separates this study from traditional acoustic emission analyses and allows these sources to be studied with as much rigor as larger natural earthquakes. The tiny events have short (3–6 μs) rise times and are well modeled by simple double couple focal mechanisms that are consistent with left-lateral slip occurring on a mm-scale patch of the precut fault surface. The repeatability of the experiments indicates that they are the result of frictional processes on the simulated fault surface rather than grain crushing or fracture of fresh rock. Our waveform analysis shows no significant differences (other than size) between the M -7 to M -5.5 earthquakes reported here and larger natural earthquakes. Their source characteristics such as stress drop (1–10 MPa) appear to be entirely consistent with earthquake scaling laws derived for larger earthquakes.
A new way of telling earthquake stories: MOBEE - the MOBile Earthquake Exhibition
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tataru, Dragos; Toma-Danila, Dragos; Nastase, Eduard
2016-04-01
In the last decades, the demand and acknowledged importance of science outreach, in general and geophysics in particular, has grown, as demonstrated by many international and national projects and other activities performed by research institutes. The National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP) from Romania is the leading national institution on earthquake monitoring and research, having at the same time a declared focus on informing and educating a wide audience about geosciences and especially seismology. This is more than welcome, since Romania is a very active country from a seismological point of view, but not too reactive when it comes to diminishing the possible effect of a major earthquake. Over the last few decades, the country has experienced several major earthquakes which have claimed thousands of lives and millions in property damage (1940; 1977; 1986 and 1990 Vrancea earthquakes). In this context, during a partnership started in 2014 together with the National Art University and Siveco IT company, a group of researchers from NIEP initiated the MOBile Earthquake Exhibition (MOBEE) project. The main goal was to design a portable museum to bring on the road educational activities focused on seismology, seismic hazard and Earth science. The exhibition is mainly focused on school students of all ages as it explains the main topics of geophysics through a unique combination of posters, digital animations and apps, large markets and exciting hand-on experiments, 3D printed models and posters. This project is singular in Romania and aims to transmit properly reviewed actual information, regarding the definition of earthquakes, the way natural hazards can affect people, buildings and the environment and the measures to be taken for prevent an aftermath. Many of the presented concepts can be used by teachers as a complementary way of demonstrating physics facts and concepts and explaining processes that shape the dynamic Earth features. It also involves
Earthquakes in the Central United States, 1699-2010
Dart, Richard L.; Volpi, Christina M.
2010-01-01
This publication is an update of an earlier report, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Geologic Investigation I-2812 by Wheeler and others (2003), titled ?Earthquakes in the Central United States-1699-2002.? Like the original poster, the center of the updated poster is a map showing the pattern of earthquake locations in the most seismically active part of the central United States. Arrayed around the map are short explanatory texts and graphics, which describe the distribution of historical earthquakes and the effects of the most notable of them. The updated poster contains additional, post 2002, earthquake data. These are 38 earthquakes covering the time interval from January 2003 to June 2010, including the Mount Carmel, Illinois, earthquake of 2008. The USGS Preliminary Determination of Epicenters (PDE) was the source of these additional data. Like the I-2812 poster, this poster was prepared for a nontechnical audience and designed to inform the general public as to the widespread occurrence of felt and damaging earthquakes in the Central United States. Accordingly, the poster should not be used to assess earthquake hazard in small areas or at individual locations.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tanaka, Tadashi
2016-03-01
Many big earthquakes have occurred in the tectonic regions of the world, especially in Japan. Earthquakes often cause damage to crucial life services such as water, gas and electricity supply systems and even the sewage system in urban and rural areas. The most severe problem for people affected by earthquakes is access to water for their drinking/cooking and toilet flushing. Securing safe water for daily life in an earthquake emergency requires the establishment of countermeasures, especially in a mega city like Tokyo. This paper described some examples of groundwater use in earthquake emergencies, with reference to reports, books and newspapers published in Japan. The consensus is that groundwater, as a source of water, plays a major role in earthquake emergencies, especially where the accessibility of wells coincides with the emergency need. It is also important to introduce a registration system for citizen-owned and company wells that can form the basis of a cooperative during a disaster; such a registration system was implemented by many Japanese local governments after the Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake in 1995 and the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, and is one of the most effective countermeasures for groundwater use in an earthquake emergency. Emphasis is also placed the importance of establishing of a continuous monitoring system of groundwater conditions for both quantity and quality during non-emergency periods.
Ellsworth, William L.
2013-01-01
Earthquakes in unusual locations have become an important topic of discussion in both North America and Europe, owing to the concern that industrial activity could cause damaging earthquakes. It has long been understood that earthquakes can be induced by impoundment of reservoirs, surface and underground mining, withdrawal of fluids and gas from the subsurface, and injection of fluids into underground formations. Injection-induced earthquakes have, in particular, become a focus of discussion as the application of hydraulic fracturing to tight shale formations is enabling the production of oil and gas from previously unproductive formations. Earthquakes can be induced as part of the process to stimulate the production from tight shale formations, or by disposal of wastewater associated with stimulation and production. Here, I review recent seismic activity that may be associated with industrial activity, with a focus on the disposal of wastewater by injection in deep wells; assess the scientific understanding of induced earthquakes; and discuss the key scientific challenges to be met for assessing this hazard.
Sepúlveda, Roger D; Valdivia, Nelson
2016-01-01
Determining the effects of unpredictable disturbances on dynamic ecological systems is challenged by the paucity of appropriate temporal and spatial coverage of data. On 27 February 2010, an 8.8 Mw mega-earthquake and tsunami struck central Chile and caused coastal land-level changes, massive damage to coastal infrastructure, and widespread mortality of coastal organisms. Wave-exposed sandy beaches showed significant changes of species abundances from before to after the earthquake, but the highly dynamic biotic and abiotic conditions of these habitats make difficult to draw clear-cut conclusions from these patterns. Here, we analysed a beyond-BACI (Before-After Control-Impact) sampling design to test whether the effects of the Maule earthquake on sandy-shore species diversity, abundance, and structure were heterogeneous along the shore. Invertebrate species abundances were quantified before (i.e. February 2010) and after (i.e. March 2010, September 2010, and March 2011) the earthquake at three sandy shores randomly located within the earthquake rupture area and three sites within a "control" area located >400 km southward from epicentre. Immediately after the earthquake took place, the three sites located in the rupture area showed anomalous beach-profile uplifts that did not comply with the erosion (i.e. "negative" uplifts) that regularly occurs during late summer in the region. Species richness, abundance, and community structure significantly varied from before to after the strike, but these patterns of change varied among sites within both areas. Only the site with the strongest and persistent beach-profile uplift within the rupture area showed significant concomitant changes in species richness and community structure; after 13 months, this community showed a similar multivariate structure to the before-disturbance state. This site, in particular, was located in the section of the rupture area that received most of the impact of the after-earthquake tsunami
Sepúlveda, Roger D.; Valdivia, Nelson
2016-01-01
Determining the effects of unpredictable disturbances on dynamic ecological systems is challenged by the paucity of appropriate temporal and spatial coverage of data. On 27 February 2010, an 8.8 Mw mega-earthquake and tsunami struck central Chile and caused coastal land-level changes, massive damage to coastal infrastructure, and widespread mortality of coastal organisms. Wave-exposed sandy beaches showed significant changes of species abundances from before to after the earthquake, but the highly dynamic biotic and abiotic conditions of these habitats make difficult to draw clear-cut conclusions from these patterns. Here, we analysed a beyond-BACI (Before-After Control-Impact) sampling design to test whether the effects of the Maule earthquake on sandy-shore species diversity, abundance, and structure were heterogeneous along the shore. Invertebrate species abundances were quantified before (i.e. February 2010) and after (i.e. March 2010, September 2010, and March 2011) the earthquake at three sandy shores randomly located within the earthquake rupture area and three sites within a “control” area located >400 km southward from epicentre. Immediately after the earthquake took place, the three sites located in the rupture area showed anomalous beach-profile uplifts that did not comply with the erosion (i.e. “negative” uplifts) that regularly occurs during late summer in the region. Species richness, abundance, and community structure significantly varied from before to after the strike, but these patterns of change varied among sites within both areas. Only the site with the strongest and persistent beach-profile uplift within the rupture area showed significant concomitant changes in species richness and community structure; after 13 months, this community showed a similar multivariate structure to the before-disturbance state. This site, in particular, was located in the section of the rupture area that received most of the impact of the after-earthquake
Is earthquake rate in south Iceland modified by seasonal loading?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jonsson, S.; Aoki, Y.; Drouin, V.
2017-12-01
Several temporarily varying processes have the potential of modifying the rate of earthquakes in the south Iceland seismic zone, one of the two most active seismic zones in Iceland. These include solid earth tides, seasonal meteorological effects and influence from passing weather systems, and variations in snow and glacier loads. In this study we investigate the influence these processes may have on crustal stresses and stressing rates in the seismic zone and assess whether they appear to be influencing the earthquake rate. While historical earthquakes in the south Iceland have preferentially occurred in early summer, this tendency is less clear for small earthquakes. The local earthquake catalogue (going back to 1991, magnitude of completeness < 1.0) has indeed more earthquakes in summer than in winter. However, this pattern is strongly influenced by aftershock sequences of the largest M6+ earthquakes, which occurred in June 2000 and May 2008. Standard Reasenberg earthquake declustering or more involved model independent stochastic declustering algorithms are not capable of fully eliminating the aftershocks from the catalogue. We therefore inspected the catalogue for the time period before 2000 and it shows limited seasonal tendency in earthquake occurrence. Our preliminary results show no clear correlation between earthquake rates and short-term stressing variations induced from solid earth tides or passing storms. Seasonal meteorological effects also appear to be too small to influence the earthquake activity. Snow and glacier load variations induce significant vertical motions in the area with peak loading occurring in Spring (April-May) and maximum unloading in Fall (Sept.-Oct.). Early summer occurrence of historical earthquakes therefore correlates with early unloading rather than with the peak unloading or unloading rate, which appears to indicate limited influence of this seasonal process on the earthquake activity.
Earthquakes; January-February 1982
Person, W.J.
1982-01-01
In the United States, a number of earthquakes occurred, but only minor damage was reported. Arkansas experienced a swarm of earthquakes beginning on January 12. Canada experienced one of its strongest earthquakes in a number of years on January 9; this earthquake caused slight damage in Maine.
Lee, Ya-Ting; Turcotte, Donald L; Holliday, James R; Sachs, Michael K; Rundle, John B; Chen, Chien-Chih; Tiampo, Kristy F
2011-10-04
The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California was the first competitive evaluation of forecasts of future earthquake occurrence. Participants submitted expected probabilities of occurrence of M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes in 0.1° × 0.1° cells for the period 1 January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2010. Probabilities were submitted for 7,682 cells in California and adjacent regions. During this period, 31 M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes occurred in the test region. These earthquakes occurred in 22 test cells. This seismic activity was dominated by earthquakes associated with the M = 7.2, April 4, 2010, El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake in northern Mexico. This earthquake occurred in the test region, and 16 of the other 30 earthquakes in the test region could be associated with it. Nine complete forecasts were submitted by six participants. In this paper, we present the forecasts in a way that allows the reader to evaluate which forecast is the most "successful" in terms of the locations of future earthquakes. We conclude that the RELM test was a success and suggest ways in which the results can be used to improve future forecasts.
Lee, Ya-Ting; Turcotte, Donald L.; Holliday, James R.; Sachs, Michael K.; Rundle, John B.; Chen, Chien-Chih; Tiampo, Kristy F.
2011-01-01
The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California was the first competitive evaluation of forecasts of future earthquake occurrence. Participants submitted expected probabilities of occurrence of M≥4.95 earthquakes in 0.1° × 0.1° cells for the period 1 January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2010. Probabilities were submitted for 7,682 cells in California and adjacent regions. During this period, 31 M≥4.95 earthquakes occurred in the test region. These earthquakes occurred in 22 test cells. This seismic activity was dominated by earthquakes associated with the M = 7.2, April 4, 2010, El Mayor–Cucapah earthquake in northern Mexico. This earthquake occurred in the test region, and 16 of the other 30 earthquakes in the test region could be associated with it. Nine complete forecasts were submitted by six participants. In this paper, we present the forecasts in a way that allows the reader to evaluate which forecast is the most “successful” in terms of the locations of future earthquakes. We conclude that the RELM test was a success and suggest ways in which the results can be used to improve future forecasts. PMID:21949355
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hoshiba, M.; Ogiso, M.
2016-12-01
Sequence of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes (Mw6.2 on April 14, Mw7.0 on April 16, and many aftershocks) caused a devastating damage at Kumamoto and Oita prefectures, Japan. During the Mw7.0 event, just after the direct S waves passing the central Oita, another M6 class event occurred there more than 80 km apart from the Mw7.0 event. The M6 event is interpreted as an induced earthquake; but it brought stronger shaking at the central Oita than that from the Mw7.0 event. We will discuss the induced earthquake from viewpoint of Earthquake Early Warning. In terms of ground shaking such as PGA and PGV, the Mw7.0 event is much smaller than those of the M6 induced earthquake at the central Oita (for example, 1/8 smaller at OIT009 station for PGA), and then it is easy to discriminate two events. However, PGD of the Mw7.0 is larger than that of the induced earthquake, and its appearance is just before the occurrence of the induced earthquake. It is quite difficult to recognize the induced earthquake from displacement waveforms only, because the displacement is strongly contaminated by that of the preceding Mw7.0 event. In many methods of EEW (including current JMA EEW system), magnitude is used for prediction of ground shaking through Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) and the magnitude is often estimated from displacement. However, displacement magnitude does not necessarily mean the best one for prediction of ground shaking, such as PGA and PGV. In case of the induced earthquake during the Kumamoto earthquake, displacement magnitude could not be estimated because of the strong contamination. Actually JMA EEW system could not recognize the induced earthquake. One of the important lessons we learned from eight years' operation of EEW is an issue of the multiple simultaneous earthquakes, such as aftershocks of the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake. Based on this lesson, we have proposed enhancement of real-time monitor of ground shaking itself instead of rapid estimation of
Earthquakes, September-October 1986
Person, W.J.
1987-01-01
There was one great earthquake (8.0 and above) during this reporting period in the South Pacific in the Kermadec Islands. There were no major earthquakes (7.0-7.9) but earthquake-related deaths were reported in Greece and in El Salvador. There were no destrcutive earthquakes in the United States.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Loyd, R.; Walter, S.; Fenton, J.; Tubbesing, S.; Greene, M.
2008-12-01
In the rush to remove debris after a damaging earthquake, perishable data related to a wide range of impacts on the physical, built and social environments can be lost. The California Post-Earthquake Information Clearinghouse is intended to prevent this data loss by supporting the earth scientists, engineers, and social and policy researchers who will conduct fieldwork in the affected areas in the hours and days following the earthquake to study these effects. First called for by Governor Ronald Reagan following the destructive M6.5 San Fernando earthquake in 1971, the concept of the Clearinghouse has since been incorporated into the response plans of the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (USGS Circular 1242). This presentation is intended to acquaint scientists with the purpose, functions, and services of the Clearinghouse. Typically, the Clearinghouse is set up in the vicinity of the earthquake within 24 hours of the mainshock and is maintained for several days to several weeks. It provides a location where field researchers can assemble to share and discuss their observations, plan and coordinate subsequent field work, and communicate significant findings directly to the emergency responders and to the public through press conferences. As the immediate response effort winds down, the Clearinghouse will ensure that collected data are archived and made available through "lessons learned" reports and publications that follow significant earthquakes. Participants in the quarterly meetings of the Clearinghouse include representatives from state and federal agencies, universities, NGOs and other private groups. Overall management of the Clearinghouse is delegated to the agencies represented by the authors above.
Earthquakes; July-August, 1978
Person, W.J.
1979-01-01
Earthquake activity during this period was about normal. Deaths from earthquakes were reported from Greece and Guatemala. Three major earthquakes (magnitude 7.0-7.9) occurred in Taiwan, Chile, and Costa Rica. In the United States, the most significant earthquake was a magnitude 5.6 on August 13 in southern California.
Michael, Andrew J.
2012-01-01
Estimates of the probability that an ML 4.8 earthquake, which occurred near the southern end of the San Andreas fault on 24 March 2009, would be followed by an M 7 mainshock over the following three days vary from 0.0009 using a Gutenberg–Richter model of aftershock statistics (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989) to 0.04 using a statistical model of foreshock behavior and long‐term estimates of large earthquake probabilities, including characteristic earthquakes (Agnew and Jones, 1991). I demonstrate that the disparity between the existing approaches depends on whether or not they conform to Gutenberg–Richter behavior. While Gutenberg–Richter behavior is well established over large regions, it could be violated on individual faults if they have characteristic earthquakes or over small areas if the spatial distribution of large‐event nucleations is disproportional to the rate of smaller events. I develop a new form of the aftershock model that includes characteristic behavior and combines the features of both models. This new model and the older foreshock model yield the same results when given the same inputs, but the new model has the advantage of producing probabilities for events of all magnitudes, rather than just for events larger than the initial one. Compared with the aftershock model, the new model has the advantage of taking into account long‐term earthquake probability models. Using consistent parameters, the probability of an M 7 mainshock on the southernmost San Andreas fault is 0.0001 for three days from long‐term models and the clustering probabilities following the ML 4.8 event are 0.00035 for a Gutenberg–Richter distribution and 0.013 for a characteristic‐earthquake magnitude–frequency distribution. Our decisions about the existence of characteristic earthquakes and how large earthquakes nucleate have a first‐order effect on the probabilities obtained from short‐term clustering models for these large events.
Improvements of the offshore earthquake locations in the Earthquake Early Warning System
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Ta-Yi; Hsu, Hsin-Chih
2017-04-01
Since 2014 the Earthworm Based Earthquake Alarm Reporting (eBEAR) system has been operated and been used to issue warnings to schools. In 2015 the system started to provide warnings to the public in Taiwan via television and the cell phone. Online performance of the eBEAR system indicated that the average reporting times afforded by the system are approximately 15 and 28 s for inland and offshore earthquakes, respectively. The eBEAR system in average can provide more warning time than the current EEW system (3.2 s and 5.5 s for inland and offshore earthquakes, respectively). However, offshore earthquakes were usually located poorly because only P-wave arrivals were used in the eBEAR system. Additionally, in the early stage of the earthquake early warning system, only fewer stations are available. The poor station coverage may be a reason to answer why offshore earthquakes are difficult to locate accurately. In the Geiger's inversion procedure of earthquake location, we need to put an initial hypocenter and origin time into the location program. For the initial hypocenter, we defined some test locations on the offshore area instead of using the average of locations from triggered stations. We performed 20 programs concurrently running the Geiger's method with different pre-defined initial position to locate earthquakes. We assume that if the program with the pre-defined initial position is close to the true earthquake location, during the iteration procedure of the Geiger's method the processing time of this program should be less than others. The results show that using pre-defined locations for trial-hypocenter in the inversion procedure is able to improve the accurate of offshore earthquakes. Especially for EEW system, in the initial stage of the EEW system, only use 3 or 5 stations to locate earthquakes may lead to bad results because of poor station coverage. In this study, the pre-defined trial-locations provide a feasible way to improve the estimations of
Megathrust earthquakes in Central Chile: What is next after the Maule 2010 earthquake?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Madariaga, R.
2013-05-01
The 27 February 2010 Maule earthquake occurred in a well identified gap in the Chilean subduction zone. The event has now been studied in detail using both far-field, near field seismic and geodetic data, we will review this information gathered so far. The event broke a region that was much longer along strike than the gap left over from the 1835 Concepcion earthquake, sometimes called the Darwin earthquake because he was in the area when the earthquake occurred and made many observations. Recent studies of contemporary documents by Udias et al indicate that the area broken by the Maule earthquake in 2010 had previously broken by a similar earthquake in 1751, but several events in the magnitude 8 range occurred in the area principally in 1835 already mentioned and, more recently on 1 December 1928 to the North and on 21 May 1960 (1 1/2 days before the big Chilean earthquake of 1960). Currently the area of the 2010 earthquake and the region immediately to the North is undergoing a very large increase in seismicity with numerous clusters of seismicity that move along the plate interface. Examination of the seismicity of Chile of the 18th and 19th century show that the region immediately to the North of the 2010 earthquake broke in a very large megathrust event in July 1730. this is the largest known earthquake in central Chile. The region where this event occurred has broken in many occasions with M 8 range earthquakes in 1822, 1880, 1906, 1971 and 1985. Is it preparing for a new very large megathrust event? The 1906 earthquake of Mw 8.3 filled the central part of the gap but it has broken again on several occasions in 1971, 1973 and 1985. The main question is whether the 1906 earthquake relieved enough stresses from the 1730 rupture zone. Geodetic data shows that most of the region that broke in 1730 is currently almost fully locked from the northern end of the Maule earthquake at 34.5°S to 30°S, near the southern end of the of the Mw 8.5 Atacama earthquake of 11
Person, W.J.
1975-01-01
There were no major earthquakes (magnitude 7.0-7.9) in March or April; however, there were earthquake fatalities in Chile, Iran, and Venezuela and approximately 35 earthquake-related injuries were reported around the world. In the United States a magnitude 6.0 earthquake struck the Idaho-Utah border region. Damage was estimated at about a million dollars. The shock was felt over a wide area and was the largest to hit the continental Untied States since the San Fernando earthquake of February 1971.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Marc, O.; Hovius, N.; Meunier, P.; Rault, C.
2017-12-01
In tectonically active areas, earthquakes are an important trigger of landslides with significant impact on hillslopes and river evolutions. However, detailed prediction of landslides locations and properties for a given earthquakes remain difficult.In contrast we propose, landscape scale, analytical prediction of bulk coseismic landsliding, that is total landslide area and volume (Marc et al., 2016a) as well as the regional area within which most landslide must distribute (Marc et al., 2017). The prediction is based on a limited number of seismological (seismic moment, source depth) and geomorphological (landscape steepness, threshold acceleration) parameters, and therefore could be implemented in landscape evolution model aiming at engaging with erosion dynamics at the scale of the seismic cycle. To assess the model we have compiled and normalized estimates of total landslide volume, total landslide area and regional area affected by landslides for 40, 17 and 83 earthquakes, respectively. We have found that low landscape steepness systematically leads to overprediction of the total area and volume of landslides. When this effect is accounted for, the model is able to predict within a factor of 2 the landslide areas and associated volumes for about 70% of the cases in our databases. The prediction of regional area affected do not require a calibration for the landscape steepness and gives a prediction within a factor of 2 for 60% of the database. For 7 out of 10 comprehensive inventories we show that our prediction compares well with the smallest region around the fault containing 95% of the total landslide area. This is a significant improvement on a previously published empirical expression based only on earthquake moment.Some of the outliers seems related to exceptional rock mass strength in the epicentral area or shaking duration and other seismic source complexities ignored by the model. Applications include prediction on the mass balance of earthquakes and
Protecting your family from earthquakes: The seven steps to earthquake safety
Developed by American Red Cross, Asian Pacific Fund
2007-01-01
This book is provided here because of the importance of preparing for earthquakes before they happen. Experts say it is very likely there will be a damaging San Francisco Bay Area earthquake in the next 30 years and that it will strike without warning. It may be hard to find the supplies and services we need after this earthquake. For example, hospitals may have more patients than they can treat, and grocery stores may be closed for weeks. You will need to provide for your family until help arrives. To keep our loved ones and our community safe, we must prepare now. Some of us come from places where earthquakes are also common. However, the dangers of earthquakes in our homelands may be very different than in the Bay Area. For example, many people in Asian countries die in major earthquakes when buildings collapse or from big sea waves called tsunami. In the Bay Area, the main danger is from objects inside buildings falling on people. Take action now to make sure your family will be safe in an earthquake. The first step is to read this book carefully and follow its advice. By making your home safer, you help make our community safer. Preparing for earthquakes is important, and together we can make sure our families and community are ready. English version p. 3-13 Chinese version p. 14-24 Vietnamese version p. 25-36 Korean version p. 37-48
Cartwright, C; Hall, M; Lee, A C K
2017-09-01
Earthquakes have substantial impacts on mortality in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). The academic evidence base to support Disaster Risk Reduction activities in LMIC settings is, however, limited. We sought to address this gap by identifying the health and healthcare impacts of earthquakes in LMICs and to identify the implications of these findings for future earthquake preparedness. Scoping review. A scoping review was undertaken with systematic searches of indexed databases to identify relevant literature. Key study details, findings, recommendations or lessons learnt were extracted and analysed across individual earthquake events. Findings were categorised by time frame relative to earthquakes and linked to the disaster preparedness cycle, enabling a profile of health and healthcare impacts and implications for future preparedness to be established. Health services need to prepare for changing health priorities with a shift from initial treatment of earthquake-related injuries to more general health needs occurring within the first few weeks. Preparedness is required to address mental health and rehabilitation needs in the medium to longer term. Inequalities of the impact of earthquakes on health were noted in particular for women, children, the elderly, disabled and rural communities. The need to maintain access to essential services such as reproductive health and preventative health services were identified. Key preparedness actions include identification of appropriate leaders, planning and training of staff. Testing of plans was advocated within the literature with evidence that this is possible in LMIC settings. Whilst there are a range of health and healthcare impacts of earthquakes, common themes emerged in different settings and from different earthquake events. Preparedness of healthcare systems is essential and possible, in order to mitigate the adverse health impacts of earthquakes in LMIC settings. Preparedness is needed at the community
Earthquake Triggering in the September 2017 Mexican Earthquake Sequence
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fielding, E. J.; Gombert, B.; Duputel, Z.; Huang, M. H.; Liang, C.; Bekaert, D. P.; Moore, A. W.; Liu, Z.; Ampuero, J. P.
2017-12-01
Southern Mexico was struck by four earthquakes with Mw > 6 and numerous smaller earthquakes in September 2017, starting with the 8 September Mw 8.2 Tehuantepec earthquake beneath the Gulf of Tehuantepec offshore Chiapas and Oaxaca. We study whether this M8.2 earthquake triggered the three subsequent large M>6 quakes in southern Mexico to improve understanding of earthquake interactions and time-dependent risk. All four large earthquakes were extensional despite the the subduction of the Cocos plate. The traditional definition of aftershocks: likely an aftershock if it occurs within two rupture lengths of the main shock soon afterwards. Two Mw 6.1 earthquakes, one half an hour after the M8.2 beneath the Tehuantepec gulf and one on 23 September near Ixtepec in Oaxaca, both fit as traditional aftershocks, within 200 km of the main rupture. The 19 September Mw 7.1 Puebla earthquake was 600 km away from the M8.2 shock, outside the standard aftershock zone. Geodetic measurements from interferometric analysis of synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and time-series analysis of GPS station data constrain finite fault total slip models for the M8.2, M7.1, and M6.1 Ixtepec earthquakes. The early M6.1 aftershock was too close in time and space to the M8.2 to measure with InSAR or GPS. We analyzed InSAR data from Copernicus Sentinel-1A and -1B satellites and JAXA ALOS-2 satellite. Our preliminary geodetic slip model for the M8.2 quake shows significant slip extended > 150 km NW from the hypocenter, longer than slip in the v1 finite-fault model (FFM) from teleseismic waveforms posted by G. Hayes at USGS NEIC. Our slip model for the M7.1 earthquake is similar to the v2 NEIC FFM. Interferograms for the M6.1 Ixtepec quake confirm the shallow depth in the upper-plate crust and show centroid is about 30 km SW of the NEIC epicenter, a significant NEIC location bias, but consistent with cluster relocations (E. Bergman, pers. comm.) and with Mexican SSN location. Coulomb static stress
Far-Field and Middle-Field Vertical Velocities Associated with Megathrust Earthquakes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fleitout, L.; Trubienko, O.; Klein, E.; Vigny, C.; Garaud, J.; Shestakov, N.; Satirapod, C.; Simons, W. J.
2013-12-01
The recent megathrust earthquakes (Sumatra, Chili and Japan) have induced far-field postseismic subsidence with velocities from a few mm/yr to more than 1cm/yr at distances from 500 to 1500km from the earthquake epicentre, for several years following the earthquake. This subsidence is observed in Argentina, China, Korea, far-East Russia and in Malaysia and Thailand as reported by Satirapod et al. ( ASR, 2013). In the middle-field a very pronounced uplift is localized on the flank of the volcanic arc facing the trench. This is observed both over Honshu, in Chile and on the South-West coast of Sumatra. In Japan, the deformations prior to Tohoku earthquake are well measured by the GSI GPS network: While the East coast was slightly subsiding, the West coast was raising. A 3D finite element code (Zebulon-Zset) is used to understand the deformations through the seismic cycle in the areas surrounding the last three large subduction earthquakes. The meshes designed for each region feature a broad spherical shell portion with a viscoelastic asthenosphere. They are refined close to the subduction zones. Using these finite element models, we find that the pattern of the predicted far-field vertical postseismic displacements depends upon the thicknesses of the elastic plate and of the low viscosity asthenosphere. A low viscosity asthenosphere at shallow depth, just below the lithosphere is required to explain the subsidence at distances from 500 to 1500km. A thick (for example 600km) asthenosphere with a uniform viscosity predicts subsidence too far away from the trench. Slip on the subduction interface is unable tot induce the observed far-field subsidence. However, a combination of relaxation in a low viscosity wedge and slip or relaxation on the bottom part of the subduction interface is necessary to explain the observed postseismic uplift in the middle-field (volcanic arc area). The creep laws of the various zones used to explain the postseismic data can be injected in
Acute myocardial infarction and stress cardiomyopathy following the Christchurch earthquakes.
Chan, Christina; Elliott, John; Troughton, Richard; Frampton, Christopher; Smyth, David; Crozier, Ian; Bridgman, Paul
2013-01-01
Christchurch, New Zealand, was struck by 2 major earthquakes at 4:36 am on 4 September 2010, magnitude 7.1 and at 12:51 pm on 22 February 2011, magnitude 6.3. Both events caused widespread destruction. Christchurch Hospital was the region's only acute care hospital. It remained functional following both earthquakes. We were able to examine the effects of the 2 earthquakes on acute cardiac presentations. Patients admitted under Cardiology in Christchurch Hospital 3 week prior to and 5 weeks following both earthquakes were analysed, with corresponding control periods in September 2009 and February 2010. Patients were categorised based on diagnosis: ST elevation myocardial infarction, Non ST elevation myocardial infarction, stress cardiomyopathy, unstable angina, stable angina, non cardiac chest pain, arrhythmia and others. There was a significant increase in overall admissions (p<0.003), ST elevation myocardial infarction (p<0.016), and non cardiac chest pain (p<0.022) in the first 2 weeks following the early morning September earthquake. This pattern was not seen after the early afternoon February earthquake. Instead, there was a very large number of stress cardiomyopathy admissions with 21 cases (95% CI 2.6-6.4) in 4 days. There had been 6 stress cardiomyopathy cases after the first earthquake (95% CI 0.44-2.62). Statistical analysis showed this to be a significant difference between the earthquakes (p<0.05). The early morning September earthquake triggered a large increase in ST elevation myocardial infarction and a few stress cardiomyopathy cases. The early afternoon February earthquake caused significantly more stress cardiomyopathy. Two major earthquakes occurring at different times of day differed in their effect on acute cardiac events.
Wheeler, Russell L.
2014-01-01
Computation of probabilistic earthquake hazard requires an estimate of Mmax, the maximum earthquake magnitude thought to be possible within a specified geographic region. This report is Part A of an Open-File Report that describes the construction of a global catalog of moderate to large earthquakes, from which one can estimate Mmax for most of the Central and Eastern United States and adjacent Canada. The catalog and Mmax estimates derived from it were used in the 2014 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey national seismic-hazard maps. This Part A discusses prehistoric earthquakes that occurred in eastern North America, northwestern Europe, and Australia, whereas a separate Part B deals with historical events.
Rotation of vertically oriented objects during earthquakes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hinzen, Klaus-G.
2012-10-01
Vertically oriented objects, such as tombstones, monuments, columns, and stone lanterns, are often observed to shift and rotate during earthquake ground motion. Such observations are usually limited to the mesoseismal zone. Whether near-field rotational ground motion components are necessary in addition to pure translational movements to explain the observed rotations is an open question. We summarize rotation data from seven earthquakes between 1925 and 2009 and perform analog and numeric rotation testing with vertically oriented objects. The free-rocking motion of a marble block on a sliding table is disturbed by a pulse in the direction orthogonal to the rocking motion. When the impulse is sufficiently strong and occurs at the `right' moment, it induces significant rotation of the block. Numeric experiments of a free-rocking block show that the initiation of vertical block rotation by a cycloidal acceleration pulse applied orthogonal to the rocking axis depends on the amplitude of the pulse and its phase relation to the rocking cycle. Rotation occurs when the pulse acceleration exceeds the threshold necessary to provoke rocking of a resting block, and the rocking block approaches its equilibrium position. Experiments with blocks subjected to full 3D strong motion signals measured during the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake confirm the observations from the tests with analytic ground motions. Significant differences in the rotational behavior of a monolithic block and two stacked blocks exist.
The initial subevent of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: Is earthquake size predictable?
Kilb, Debi; Gomberg, J.
1999-01-01
We examine the initial subevent (ISE) of the M?? 6.7, 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake in order to discriminate between two end-member rupture initiation models: the 'preslip' and 'cascade' models. Final earthquake size may be predictable from an ISE's seismic signature in the preslip model but not in the cascade model. In the cascade model ISEs are simply small earthquakes that can be described as purely dynamic ruptures. In this model a large earthquake is triggered by smaller earthquakes; there is no size scaling between triggering and triggered events and a variety of stress transfer mechanisms are possible. Alternatively, in the preslip model, a large earthquake nucleates as an aseismically slipping patch in which the patch dimension grows and scales with the earthquake's ultimate size; the byproduct of this loading process is the ISE. In this model, the duration of the ISE signal scales with the ultimate size of the earthquake, suggesting that nucleation and earthquake size are determined by a more predictable, measurable, and organized process. To distinguish between these two end-member models we use short period seismograms recorded by the Southern California Seismic Network. We address questions regarding the similarity in hypocenter locations and focal mechanisms of the ISE and the mainshock. We also compare the ISE's waveform characteristics to those of small earthquakes and to the beginnings of earthquakes with a range of magnitudes. We find that the focal mechanisms of the ISE and mainshock are indistinguishable, and both events may have nucleated on and ruptured the same fault plane. These results satisfy the requirements for both models and thus do not discriminate between them. However, further tests show the ISE's waveform characteristics are similar to those of typical small earthquakes in the vicinity and more importantly, do not scale with the mainshock magnitude. These results are more consistent with the cascade model.
Did you feel it? : citizens contribute to earthquake science
Wald, David J.; Dewey, James W.
2005-01-01
Since the early 1990s, the magnitude and location of an earthquake have been available within minutes on the Internet. Now, as a result of work by the U.S. Geological Survey and with the cooperation of various regional seismic networks, people who experience an earthquake can go online and share information about its effects to help create a map of shaking intensities and damage. Such “Community Internet Intensity Maps” (CIIMs) contribute greatly toward the quick assessment of the scope of an earthquake emergency and provide valuable data for earthquake research.
Late Holocene megathrust earthquakes in south central Chile
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Garrett, Ed; Shennan, Ian; Gulliver, Pauline; Woodroffe, Sarah
2013-04-01
A lack of comprehensive understanding of the seismic hazards associated with a subduction zone can lead to inadequate anticipation of earthquake and tsunami magnitudes. Four hundred and fifty years of Chilean historical documents record the effects of numerous great earthquakes; however, with recurrence intervals between the largest megathrust earthquakes approaching 300 years, seismic hazard assessment requires longer chronologies. This research seeks to verify and extend historical records in south central Chile using a relative-sea level approach to palaeoseismology. Our quantitative, diatom-based approaches to relative sea-level reconstruction are successful in reconstructing the magnitude of coseismic deformation during recent, well documented Chilean earthquakes. The few disparities between my estimates and independent data highlight the possibility of shaking-induced sediment consolidation in tidal marshes. Following this encouraging confirmation of the approach, we quantify land-level changes in longer sedimentary records from the centre of the rupture zone of the 1960 Valdivia earthquake. Here, laterally extensive marsh soils abruptly overlain by low intertidal sediments attest to the occurrence of four megathrust earthquakes. Sites preserve evidence of the 1960 and 1575 earthquakes and we constrain the timing of two predecessors to 1270 to 1410 and 1050 to 1200. The sediments and biostratigraphy lack evidence for the historically documented 1737 and 1837 earthquakes.
Impact of the Christchurch earthquakes on hospital staff.
Tovaranonte, Pleayo; Cawood, Tom J
2013-06-01
two major but contrasting Christchurch earthquakes upon General Medicine hospital staff. The effect was widespread with minor financial impact during the first but much more during the second earthquake. Moderate psychological impact was experienced in both earthquakes. This data may be useful to help prepare plans for future natural disasters. .
Sounding the Alert: Designing an Effective Voice for Earthquake Early Warning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Burkett, E. R.; Given, D. D.
2015-12-01
The USGS is working with partners to develop the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system (http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2014/3083/) to protect life and property along the U.S. West Coast, where the highest national seismic hazard is concentrated. EEW sends an alert that shaking from an earthquake is on its way (in seconds to tens of seconds) to allow recipients or automated systems to take appropriate actions at their location to protect themselves and/or sensitive equipment. ShakeAlert is transitioning toward a production prototype phase in which test users might begin testing applications of the technology. While a subset of uses will be automated (e.g., opening fire house doors), other applications will alert individuals by radio or cellphone notifications and require behavioral decisions to protect themselves (e.g., "Drop, Cover, Hold On"). The project needs to select and move forward with a consistent alert sound to be widely and quickly recognized as an earthquake alert. In this study we combine EEW science and capabilities with an understanding of human behavior from the social and psychological sciences to provide insight toward the design of effective sounds to help best motivate proper action by alert recipients. We present a review of existing research and literature, compiled as considerations and recommendations for alert sound characteristics optimized for EEW. We do not yet address wording of an audible message about the earthquake (e.g., intensity and timing until arrival of shaking or possible actions), although it will be a future component to accompany the sound. We consider pitch(es), loudness, rhythm, tempo, duration, and harmony. Important behavioral responses to sound to take into account include that people respond to discordant sounds with anxiety, can be calmed by harmony and softness, and are innately alerted by loud and abrupt sounds, although levels high enough to be auditory stressors can negatively impact human judgment.
Effect of GNSS receiver carrier phase tracking loops on earthquake monitoring performance
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Clare, Adam; Lin, Tao; Lachapelle, Gérard
2017-06-01
This research focuses on the performance of GNSS receiver carrier phase tracking loops for early earthquake monitoring systems. An earthquake was simulated using a hardware simulator and position, velocity and acceleration displacements were obtained to recreate the dynamics of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Using a software defined receiver, GSNRx, tracking bandwidths of 5, 10, 15, 20, 30, 40 and 50 Hz along with integration times of 1, 5 and 10 ms were tested. Using the phase lock indicator, an adaptive tracking loop was designed and tested to maximize performance for this application.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yokoi, S.; Tsuruoka, H.; Nanjo, K.; Hirata, N.
2012-12-01
Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global project on earthquake predictability research. The final goal of this project is to search for the intrinsic predictability of the earthquake rupture process through forecast testing experiments. The Earthquake Research Institute, the University of Tokyo joined CSEP and started the Japanese testing center called as CSEP-Japan. This testing center provides an open access to researchers contributing earthquake forecast models applied to Japan. Now more than 100 earthquake forecast models were submitted on the prospective experiment. The models are separated into 4 testing classes (1 day, 3 months, 1 year and 3 years) and 3 testing regions covering an area of Japan including sea area, Japanese mainland and Kanto district. We evaluate the performance of the models in the official suite of tests defined by CSEP. The total number of experiments was implemented for approximately 300 rounds. These results provide new knowledge concerning statistical forecasting models. We started a study for constructing a 3-dimensional earthquake forecasting model for Kanto district in Japan based on CSEP experiments under the Special Project for Reducing Vulnerability for Urban Mega Earthquake Disasters. Because seismicity of the area ranges from shallower part to a depth of 80 km due to subducting Philippine Sea plate and Pacific plate, we need to study effect of depth distribution. We will develop models for forecasting based on the results of 2-D modeling. We defined the 3D - forecasting area in the Kanto region with test classes of 1 day, 3 months, 1 year and 3 years, and magnitudes from 4.0 to 9.0 as in CSEP-Japan. In the first step of the study, we will install RI10K model (Nanjo, 2011) and the HISTETAS models (Ogata, 2011) to know if those models have good performance as in the 3 months 2-D CSEP-Japan experiments in the Kanto region before the 2011 Tohoku event (Yokoi et al., in preparation). We use CSEP
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Valizadeh Alvan, H.; Mansor, S.; Haydari Azad, F.
2012-12-01
source and propagation of seismic waves. In many cases, active faults are capable of buildup and sudden release of tectonic stress. Hence, monitoring the active fault systems near epicentral regions of past earthquakes would be a necessity. In this paper, we try to detect possible anomalies in SLHF and AT during two moderate earthquakes of 6 - 6.5 M in Iran and explain the relationships between the seismic activities prior to these earthquake and active faulting in the area. Our analysis shows abnormal SLHF 5~10 days before these earthquakes. Meaningful anomalous concentrations usually occurred in the epicentral area. On the other hand, spatial distributions of these variations were in accordance with the local active faults. It is concluded that the anomalous increase in SLHF shows great potential in providing early warning of a disastrous earthquake, provided that there is a better understanding of the background noise due to the seasonal effects and climatic factors involved. Changes in near surface air temperature along nearby active faults, one or two weeks before the earthquakes, although not as significant as SLHF changes, can be considered as another earthquake indicator.
Pre-earthquake Magnetic Pulses
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Scoville, J.; Heraud, J. A.; Freund, F. T.
2015-12-01
A semiconductor model of rocks is shown to describe unipolar magnetic pulses, a phenomenon that has been observed prior to earthquakes. These pulses are suspected to be generated deep in the Earth's crust, in and around the hypocentral volume, days or even weeks before earth quakes. Their extremely long wavelength allows them to pass through kilometers of rock. Interestingly, when the sources of these pulses are triangulated, the locations coincide with the epicenters of future earthquakes. We couple a drift-diffusion semiconductor model to a magnetic field in order to describe the electromagnetic effects associated with electrical currents flowing within rocks. The resulting system of equations is solved numerically and it is seen that a volume of rock may act as a diode that produces transient currents when it switches bias. These unidirectional currents are expected to produce transient unipolar magnetic pulses similar in form, amplitude, and duration to those observed before earthquakes, and this suggests that the pulses could be the result of geophysical semiconductor processes.
Identification of Deep Earthquakes
2010-09-01
discriminants that will reliably separate small, crustal earthquakes (magnitudes less than about 4 and depths less than about 40 to 50 km) from small...characteristics on discrimination plots designed to separate nuclear explosions from crustal earthquakes. Thus, reliably flagging these small, deep events is...Further, reliably identifying subcrustal earthquakes will allow us to eliminate deep events (previously misidentified as crustal earthquakes) from
Towards coupled earthquake dynamic rupture and tsunami simulations: The 2011 Tohoku earthquake.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Galvez, Percy; van Dinther, Ylona
2016-04-01
The 2011 Mw9 Tohoku earthquake has been recorded with a vast GPS and seismic network given an unprecedented chance to seismologists to unveil complex rupture processes in a mega-thrust event. The seismic stations surrounding the Miyagi regions (MYGH013) show two clear distinct waveforms separated by 40 seconds suggesting two rupture fronts, possibly due to slip reactivation caused by frictional melting and thermal fluid pressurization effects. We created a 3D dynamic rupture model to reproduce this rupture reactivation pattern using SPECFEM3D (Galvez et al, 2014) based on a slip-weakening friction with sudden two sequential stress drops (Galvez et al, 2015) . Our model starts like a M7-8 earthquake breaking dimly the trench, then after 40 seconds a second rupture emerges close to the trench producing additional slip capable to fully break the trench and transforming the earthquake into a megathrust event. The seismograms agree roughly with seismic records along the coast of Japan. The resulting sea floor displacements are in agreement with 1Hz GPS displacements (GEONET). The simulated sea floor displacement reaches 8-10 meters of uplift close to the trench, which may be the cause of such a devastating tsunami followed by the Tohoku earthquake. To investigate the impact of such a huge uplift, we ran tsunami simulations with the slip reactivation model and plug the sea floor displacements into GeoClaw (Finite element code for tsunami simulations, George and LeVeque, 2006). Our recent results compare well with the water height at the tsunami DART buoys 21401, 21413, 21418 and 21419 and show the potential using fully dynamic rupture results for tsunami studies for earthquake-tsunami scenarios.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bonali, F. L.; Tibaldi, A.; Corazzato, C.
2015-06-01
In this work, we analyse in detail how a large earthquake could cause stress changes on volcano plumbing systems and produce possible positive feedbacks in promoting new eruptions. We develop a sensitivity analysis that considers several possible parameters, providing also new constraints on the methodological approach. The work is focus on the Mw 8.8 2010 earthquake that occurred along the Chile subduction zone near 24 historic/Holocene volcanoes, located in the Southern Volcanic Zone. We use six different finite fault-slip models to calculate the static stress change, induced by the coseismic slip, in a direction normal to several theoretical feeder dykes with various orientations. Results indicate different magnitudes of stress change due to the heterogeneity of magma pathway geometry and orientation. In particular, the N-S and NE-SW-striking magma pathways suffer a decrease in stress normal to the feeder dyke (unclamping, up to 0.85 MPa) in comparison to those striking NW-SE and E-W, and in some cases there is even a clamping effect depending on the magma path strike. The diverse fault-slip models have also an effect (up to 0.4 MPa) on the results. As a consequence, we reconstruct the geometry and orientation of the most reliable magma pathways below the 24 volcanoes by studying structural and morphometric data, and we resolve the stress changes on each of them. Results indicate that: (i) volcanoes where post-earthquake eruptions took place experienced earthquake-induced unclamping or very small clamping effects, (ii) several volcanoes that did not erupt yet are more prone to experience future unrest, from the point of view of the host rock stress state, because of earthquake-induced unclamping. Our findings also suggest that pathway orientation plays a more relevant role in inducing stress changes, whereas the depth of calculation (e.g. 2, 5 or 10 km) used in the analysis, is not key a parameter. Earthquake-induced magma-pathway unclamping might contribute to
Plate Tectonic Cycle. K-6 Science Curriculum.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Blueford, J. R.; And Others
Plate Tectonics Cycle is one of the units of a K-6 unified science curriculum program. The unit consists of four organizing sub-themes: (1) volcanoes (covering formation, distribution, and major volcanic groups); (2) earthquakes (with investigations on wave movements, seismograms and sub-suface earth currents); (3) plate tectonics (providing maps…
Earthquake Risk Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan area
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hirata, N.; Sakai, S.; Kasahara, K.; Nakagawa, S.; Nanjo, K.; Panayotopoulos, Y.; Tsuruoka, H.
2010-12-01
Seismic disaster risk mitigation in urban areas constitutes a challenge through collaboration of scientific, engineering, and social-science fields. Examples of collaborative efforts include research on detailed plate structure with identification of all significant faults, developing dense seismic networks; strong ground motion prediction, which uses information on near-surface seismic site effects and fault models; earthquake resistant and proof structures; and cross-discipline infrastructure for effective risk mitigation just after catastrophic events. Risk mitigation strategy for the next greater earthquake caused by the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducting beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area is of major concern because it caused past mega-thrust earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (magnitude M8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M7.9) which had 105,000 fatalities. A M7 or greater (M7+) earthquake in this area at present has high potential to produce devastating loss of life and property with even greater global economic repercussions. The Central Disaster Management Council of Japan estimates that the M7+ earthquake will cause 11,000 fatalities and 112 trillion yen (about 1 trillion US$) economic loss. This earthquake is evaluated to occur with a probability of 70% in 30 years by the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan. In order to mitigate disaster for greater Tokyo, the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (2007-2011) was launched in collaboration with scientists, engineers, and social-scientists in nationwide institutions. The results that are obtained in the respective fields will be integrated until project termination to improve information on the strategy assessment for seismic risk mitigation in the Tokyo metropolitan area. In this talk, we give an outline of our project as an example of collaborative research on earthquake risk mitigation. Discussion is extended to our effort in progress and
Beeler, N.M.; Lockner, D.A.
2003-01-01
We provide an explanation why earthquake occurrence does not correlate well with the daily solid Earth tides. The explanation is derived from analysis of laboratory experiments in which faults are loaded to quasiperiodic failure by the combined action of a constant stressing rate, intended to simulate tectonic loading, and a small sinusoidal stress, analogous to the Earth tides. Event populations whose failure times correlate with the oscillating stress show two modes of response; the response mode depends on the stressing frequency. Correlation that is consistent with stress threshold failure models, e.g., Coulomb failure, results when the period of stress oscillation exceeds a characteristic time tn; the degree of correlation between failure time and the phase of the driving stress depends on the amplitude and frequency of the stress oscillation and on the stressing rate. When the period of the oscillating stress is less than tn, the correlation is not consistent with threshold failure models, and much higher stress amplitudes are required to induce detectable correlation with the oscillating stress. The physical interpretation of tn is the duration of failure nucleation. Behavior at the higher frequencies is consistent with a second-order dependence of the fault strength on sliding rate which determines the duration of nucleation and damps the response to stress change at frequencies greater than 1/tn. Simple extrapolation of these results to the Earth suggests a very weak correlation of earthquakes with the daily Earth tides, one that would require >13,000 earthquakes to detect. On the basis of our experiments and analysis, the absence of definitive daily triggering of earthquakes by the Earth tides requires that for earthquakes, tn exceeds the daily tidal period. The experiments suggest that the minimum typical duration of earthquake nucleation on the San Andreas fault system is ???1 year.
The 1985 central chile earthquake: a repeat of previous great earthquakes in the region?
Comte, D; Eisenberg, A; Lorca, E; Pardo, M; Ponce, L; Saragoni, R; Singh, S K; Suárez, G
1986-07-25
A great earthquake (surface-wave magnitude, 7.8) occurred along the coast of central Chile on 3 March 1985, causing heavy damage to coastal towns. Intense foreshock activity near the epicenter of the main shock occurred for 11 days before the earthquake. The aftershocks of the 1985 earthquake define a rupture area of 170 by 110 square kilometers. The earthquake was forecast on the basis of the nearly constant repeat time (83 +/- 9 years) of great earthquakes in this region. An analysis of previous earthquakes suggests that the rupture lengths of great shocks in the region vary by a factor of about 3. The nearly constant repeat time and variable rupture lengths cannot be reconciled with time- or slip-predictable models of earthquake recurrence. The great earthquakes in the region seem to involve a variable rupture mode and yet, for unknown reasons, remain periodic. Historical data suggest that the region south of the 1985 rupture zone should now be considered a gap of high seismic potential that may rupture in a great earthquake in the next few tens of years.
Barbour, Andrew J.; Norbeck, Jack H.; Rubinstein, Justin L.
2017-01-01
The 2016 Mw 5.8 Pawnee earthquake occurred in a region with active wastewater injection into a basal formation group. Prior to the earthquake, fluid injection rates at most wells were relatively steady, but newly collected data show significant increases in injection rate in the years leading up to earthquake. For the same time period, the total volumes of injected wastewater were roughly equivalent between variable‐rate and constant‐rate wells. To understand the possible influence of these changes in injection, we simulate the variable‐rate injection history and its constant‐rate equivalent in a layered poroelastic half‐space to explore the interplay between pore‐pressure effects and poroelastic effects on the fault leading up to the mainshock. In both cases, poroelastic stresses contribute a significant proportion of Coulomb failure stresses on the fault compared to pore‐pressure increases alone, but the resulting changes in seismicity rate, calculated using a rate‐and‐state frictional model, are many times larger when poroelastic effects are included, owing to enhanced stressing rates. In particular, the variable‐rate simulation predicts more than an order of magnitude increase in seismicity rate above background rates compared to the constant‐rate simulation with equivalent volume. The observed cumulative density of earthquakes prior to the mainshock within 10 km of the injection source exhibits remarkable agreement with seismicity predicted by the variable‐rate injection case.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Miyatake, T.; Kato, N.; Yin, J.; Kato, A.
2010-12-01
The 2004, Chuetsu, Japan, earthquake of Mw 6.6 occurred as shallow thrust event and the detailed kinematic source model was obtained by Hikima and Koketsu (2005). Just after the event, a dense temporal seismic network was deployed, and the detailed structure was elucidated (A. Kato et al. 2006). The seismic velocities in the hanging wall above the main shock fault are lower than those in the footwall, with the velocity contrast extending to a depth of approximately 10 km (A. Kato et al. 2006). Their results also show the high velocity on the asperity. We investigate that effect of the structure heterogeneity on fault rupture. First, we model the structure of the source region of 100km x 100km x 40km as simple as possible, and then solve the static elastic equation of motion with gravity effect by using finite difference method and GeoFEM. Our structure model consists of two layers, in which the boundary is a dipping surface from ground surface to 10km depth and bend to horizontal plane. The slope of the boundary corresponds to the earthquake fault and a bump located on the asperity between the depths of 4km and 10km. Finite difference grid size is 0.25km horizontally and 0.4km vertically. Ratio of the horizontal to vertical grids corresponds to the dip angle of the main shock. We simply assume the rigidity of 30GPa for lower sediment part and 40GPa for hard rock part. The boundary conditions imposed are, 1) stress free on the ground surface, 2) depth dependent or uniform normal stress are added on the sides that cause horizontal maximum stress, 3) Lithostatic vertical stress on the bottom. The calculated stress field on the main shock fault has the following features, 1) The high shear stress peaks appear around the depth of hypocenter and the top edge of the asperity, corresponding to the depths of the velocity contrast. These high stress zones are caused by stress concentration of the low rigidity wedge shaped sediment. 2) Expected stress drop distribution is
Weather Satellite Thermal IR Responses Prior to Earthquakes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
OConnor, Daniel P.
2005-01-01
A number of observers claim to have seen thermal anomalies prior to earthquakes, but subsequent analysis by others has failed to produce similar findings. What exactly are these anomalies? Might they be useful for earthquake prediction? It is the purpose of this study to determine if thermal anomalies can be found in association with known earthquakes by systematically co-registering weather satellite images at the sub-pixel level and then determining if statistically significant responses occurred prior to the earthquake event. A new set of automatic co-registration procedures was developed for this task to accommodate all properties particular to weather satellite observations taken at night, and it relies on the general condition that the ground cools after sunset. Using these procedures, we can produce a set of temperature-sensitive satellite images for each of five selected earthquakes (Algeria 2003; Bhuj, India 2001; Izmit, Turkey 2001; Kunlun Shan, Tibet 2001; Turkmenistan 2000) and thus more effectively investigate heating trends close to the epicenters a few hours prior to the earthquake events. This study will lay tracks for further work in earthquake prediction and provoke the question of the exact nature of the thermal anomalies.
Distant, delayed and ancient earthquake-induced landslides
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Havenith, Hans-Balder; Torgoev, Almaz; Braun, Anika; Schlögel, Romy; Micu, Mihai
2016-04-01
On the basis of a new classification of seismically induced landslides we outline particular effects related to the delayed and distant triggering of landslides. Those cannot be predicted by state-of-the-art methods. First, for about a dozen events the 'predicted' extension of the affected area is clearly underestimated. The most problematic cases are those for which far-distant triggering of landslides had been reported, such as for the 1988 Saguenay earthquake. In Central Asia reports for such cases are known for areas marked by a thick cover of loess. One possible contributing effect could be a low-frequency resonance of the thick soils induced by distant earthquakes, especially those in the Pamir - Hindu Kush seismic region. Such deep focal and high magnitude (>>7) earthquakes are also found in Europe, first of all in the Vrancea region (Romania). For this area and others in Central Asia we computed landslide event sizes related to scenario earthquakes with M>7.5. The second particular and challenging type of triggering is the one delayed with respect to the main earthquake event: case histories have been reported for the Racha earthquake in 1991 when several larger landslides only started moving 2 or 3 days after the main shock. Similar observations were also made after other earthquake events in the U.S., such as after the 1906 San Francisco, the 1949 Tacoma, the 1959 Hebgen Lake and the 1983 Bora Peak earthquakes. Here, we will present a series of detailed examples of (partly monitored) mass movements in Central Asia that mainly developed after earthquakes, some even several weeks after the main shock: e.g. the Tektonik and Kainama landslides triggered in 1992 and 2004, respectively. We believe that the development of the massive failures is a consequence of the opening of tension cracks during the seismic shaking and their filling up with water during precipitations that followed the earthquakes. The third particular aspect analysed here is the use of large
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Yan; Lu, Yi
2018-01-01
The objective of this study is to explore the relationship between earthquake exposure and the incidence of PTSD. A stratification random sample survey was conducted to collect data in the Longmenshan thrust fault after Lushan earthquake three years. We used the Children's Revised Impact of Event Scale (CRIES-13) and the Earthquake Experience Scale. Subjects in this study included 3944 school student survivors in local eleven schools. The prevalence of probable PTSD is relatively higher, when the people was trapped in the earthquake, was injured in the earthquake or have relatives who died in the earthquake. It concluded that researchers need to pay more attention to the children and adolescents. The government should pay more attention to these people and provide more economic support.
Earthquake-induced ground failures in Italy from a reviewed database
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Martino, S.; Prestininzi, A.; Romeo, R. W.
2013-05-01
A database (Italian acronym CEDIT) of earthquake-induced ground failures in Italy is presented, and the related content is analysed. The catalogue collects data regarding landslides, liquefaction, ground cracks, surface faulting and ground-level changes triggered by earthquakes of Mercalli intensity 8 or greater that occurred in the last millennium in Italy. As of January 2013, the CEDIT database has been available online for public use (URL: http://www.ceri.uniroma1.it/cn/index.do?id=230&page=55) and is presently hosted by the website of the Research Centre for Geological Risks (CERI) of the "Sapienza" University of Rome. Summary statistics of the database content indicate that 14% of the Italian municipalities have experienced at least one earthquake-induced ground failure and that landslides are the most common ground effects (approximately 45%), followed by ground cracks (32%) and liquefaction (18%). The relationships between ground effects and earthquake parameters such as seismic source energy (earthquake magnitude and epicentral intensity), local conditions (site intensity) and source-to-site distances are also analysed. The analysis indicates that liquefaction, surface faulting and ground-level changes are much more dependent on the earthquake source energy (i.e. magnitude) than landslides and ground cracks. In contrast, the latter effects are triggered at lower site intensities and greater epicentral distances than the other environmental effects.
Earthquake-induced ground failures in Italy from a reviewed database
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Martino, S.; Prestininzi, A.; Romeo, R. W.
2014-04-01
A database (Italian acronym CEDIT) of earthquake-induced ground failures in Italy is presented, and the related content is analysed. The catalogue collects data regarding landslides, liquefaction, ground cracks, surface faulting and ground changes triggered by earthquakes of Mercalli epicentral intensity 8 or greater that occurred in the last millennium in Italy. As of January 2013, the CEDIT database has been available online for public use (http://www.ceri.uniroma1.it/cn/gis.jsp ) and is presently hosted by the website of the Research Centre for Geological Risks (CERI) of the Sapienza University of Rome. Summary statistics of the database content indicate that 14% of the Italian municipalities have experienced at least one earthquake-induced ground failure and that landslides are the most common ground effects (approximately 45%), followed by ground cracks (32%) and liquefaction (18%). The relationships between ground effects and earthquake parameters such as seismic source energy (earthquake magnitude and epicentral intensity), local conditions (site intensity) and source-to-site distances are also analysed. The analysis indicates that liquefaction, surface faulting and ground changes are much more dependent on the earthquake source energy (i.e. magnitude) than landslides and ground cracks. In contrast, the latter effects are triggered at lower site intensities and greater epicentral distances than the other environmental effects.
Crowdsourced earthquake early warning.
Minson, Sarah E; Brooks, Benjamin A; Glennie, Craig L; Murray, Jessica R; Langbein, John O; Owen, Susan E; Heaton, Thomas H; Iannucci, Robert A; Hauser, Darren L
2015-04-01
Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an M w (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California's Hayward fault, and real data from the M w 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.
Crowdsourced earthquake early warning
Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.
2015-01-01
Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing. PMID:26601167
Earthquakes, November-December 1992
Person, W.J.
1993-01-01
There were two major earthquakes (7.0≤M<8.0) during the last two months of the year, a magntidue 7.5 earthquake on December 12 in the Flores region, Indonesia, and a magnitude 7.0 earthquake on December 20 in the Banda Sea. Earthquakes caused fatalities in China and Indonesia. The greatest number of deaths (2,500) for the year occurred in Indonesia. In Switzerland, six people were killed by an accidental explosion recoreded by seismographs. In teh United States, a magnitude 5.3 earthquake caused slight damage at Big Bear in southern California.
Crowdsourced earthquake early warning
Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.
2015-01-01
Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hirata, K.; Fujiwara, H.; Nakamura, H.; Osada, M.; Morikawa, N.; Kawai, S.; Ohsumi, T.; Aoi, S.; Yamamoto, N.; Matsuyama, H.; Toyama, N.; Kito, T.; Murashima, Y.; Murata, Y.; Inoue, T.; Saito, R.; Takayama, J.; Akiyama, S.; Korenaga, M.; Abe, Y.; Hashimoto, N.
2015-12-01
The Earthquake Research Committee(ERC)/HERP, Government of Japan (2013) revised their long-term evaluation of the forthcoming large earthquake along the Nankai Trough; the next earthquake is estimated M8 to 9 class, and the probability (P30) that the next earthquake will occur within the next 30 years (from Jan. 1, 2013) is 60% to 70%. In this study, we assess tsunami hazards (maximum coastal tsunami heights) in the near future, in terms of a probabilistic approach, from the next earthquake along Nankai Trough, on the basis of ERC(2013)'s report. The probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment that we applied is as follows; (1) Characterized earthquake fault models (CEFMs) are constructed on each of the 15 hypothetical source areas (HSA) that ERC(2013) showed. The characterization rule follows Toyama et al.(2015, JpGU). As results, we obtained total of 1441 CEFMs. (2) We calculate tsunamis due to CEFMs by solving nonlinear, finite-amplitude, long-wave equations with advection and bottom friction terms by finite-difference method. Run-up computation on land is included. (3) A time predictable model predicts the recurrent interval of the present seismic cycle is T=88.2 years (ERC,2013). We fix P30 = 67% by applying the renewal process based on BPT distribution with T and alpha=0.24 as its aperiodicity. (4) We divide the probability P30 into P30(i) for i-th subgroup consisting of the earthquakes occurring in each of 15 HSA by following a probability re-distribution concept (ERC,2014). Then each earthquake (CEFM) in i-th subgroup is assigned a probability P30(i)/N where N is the number of CEFMs in each sub-group. Note that such re-distribution concept of the probability is nothing but tentative because the present seismology cannot give deep knowledge enough to do it. Epistemic logic-tree approach may be required in future. (5) We synthesize a number of tsunami hazard curves at every evaluation points on coasts by integrating the information about 30 years occurrence
Recent Mega-Thrust Tsunamigenic Earthquakes and PTHA
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lorito, S.
2013-05-01
The occurrence of several mega-thrust tsunamigenic earthquakes in the last decade, including but not limited to the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman, the 2010 Maule, and 2011 Tohoku earthquakes, has been a dramatic reminder of the limitations in our capability of assessing earthquake and tsunami hazard and risk. However, the increasingly high-quality geophysical observational networks allowed the retrieval of most accurate than ever models of the rupture process of mega-thrust earthquakes, thus paving the way for future improved hazard assessments. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) methodology, in particular, is less mature than its seismic counterpart, PSHA. Worldwide recent research efforts of the tsunami science community allowed to start filling this gap, and to define some best practices that are being progressively employed in PTHA for different regions and coasts at threat. In the first part of my talk, I will briefly review some rupture models of recent mega-thrust earthquakes, and highlight some of their surprising features that likely result in bigger error bars associated to PTHA results. More specifically, recent events of unexpected size at a given location, and with unexpected rupture process features, posed first-order open questions which prevent the definition of an heterogeneous rupture probability along a subduction zone, despite of several recent promising results on the subduction zone seismic cycle. In the second part of the talk, I will dig a bit more into a specific ongoing effort for improving PTHA methods, in particular as regards epistemic and aleatory uncertainties determination, and the computational PTHA feasibility when considering the full assumed source variability. Only logic trees are usually explicated in PTHA studies, accounting for different possible assumptions on the source zone properties and behavior. The selection of the earthquakes to be actually modelled is then in general made on a qualitative basis or remains implicit
Long-Period Ground Motion due to Near-Shear Earthquake Ruptures
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Koketsu, K.; Yokota, Y.; Hikima, K.
2010-12-01
Long-period ground motion has become an increasingly important consideration because of the recent rapid increase in the number of large-scale structures, such as high-rise buildings and large oil storage tanks. Large subduction-zone earthquakes and moderate to large crustal earthquakes can generate far-source long-period ground motions in distant sedimentary basins with the help of path effects. Near-fault long-period ground motions are generated, for the most part, by the source effects of forward rupture directivity (Koketsu and Miyake, 2008). This rupture directivity effect is the maximum in the direction of fault rupture when a rupture velocity is nearly equal to shear wave velocity around a source fault (Dunham and Archuleta, 2005). The near-shear rupture was found to occur during the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake at the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau (Koketsu et al., 2010). The variance of waveform residuals in a joint inversion of teleseismic and strong motion data was the minimum when we adopted a rupture velocity of 2.8 km/s, which is close to the shear wave velocity of 2.6 km/s around the hypocenter. We also found near-shear rupture during the 2010 Mw 6.9 Yushu earthquake (Yokota et al., 2010). The optimum rupture velocity for an inversion of teleseismic data is 3.5 km/s, which is almost equal to the shear wave velocity around the hypocenter. Since, in addition, supershear rupture was found during the 2001 Mw 7.8 Central Kunlun earthquake (Bouchon and Vallee, 2003), such fast earthquake rupture can be a characteristic of the eastern Tibetan plateau. Huge damage in Yingxiu and Beichuan from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and damage heavier than expected in the county seat of Yushu from the medium-sized Yushu earthquake can be attributed to the maximum rupture directivity effect in the rupture direction due to near-shear earthquake ruptures.
Prototype operational earthquake prediction system
Spall, Henry
1986-01-01
An objective if the U.S. Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 is to introduce into all regions of the country that are subject to large and moderate earthquakes, systems for predicting earthquakes and assessing earthquake risk. In 1985, the USGS developed for the Secretary of the Interior a program for implementation of a prototype operational earthquake prediction system in southern California.
Acute Myocardial Infarction and Stress Cardiomyopathy following the Christchurch Earthquakes
Chan, Christina; Elliott, John; Troughton, Richard; Frampton, Christopher; Smyth, David; Crozier, Ian; Bridgman, Paul
2013-01-01
Background Christchurch, New Zealand, was struck by 2 major earthquakes at 4:36am on 4 September 2010, magnitude 7.1 and at 12:51pm on 22 February 2011, magnitude 6.3. Both events caused widespread destruction. Christchurch Hospital was the region's only acute care hospital. It remained functional following both earthquakes. We were able to examine the effects of the 2 earthquakes on acute cardiac presentations. Methods Patients admitted under Cardiology in Christchurch Hospital 3 week prior to and 5 weeks following both earthquakes were analysed, with corresponding control periods in September 2009 and February 2010. Patients were categorised based on diagnosis: ST elevation myocardial infarction, Non ST elevation myocardial infarction, stress cardiomyopathy, unstable angina, stable angina, non cardiac chest pain, arrhythmia and others. Results There was a significant increase in overall admissions (p<0.003), ST elevation myocardial infarction (p<0.016), and non cardiac chest pain (p<0.022) in the first 2 weeks following the early morning September earthquake. This pattern was not seen after the early afternoon February earthquake. Instead, there was a very large number of stress cardiomyopathy admissions with 21 cases (95% CI 2.6–6.4) in 4 days. There had been 6 stress cardiomyopathy cases after the first earthquake (95% CI 0.44–2.62). Statistical analysis showed this to be a significant difference between the earthquakes (p<0.05). Conclusion The early morning September earthquake triggered a large increase in ST elevation myocardial infarction and a few stress cardiomyopathy cases. The early afternoon February earthquake caused significantly more stress cardiomyopathy. Two major earthquakes occurring at different times of day differed in their effect on acute cardiac events. PMID:23844213
Haeussler, Peter J.; Plafker, George
1995-01-01
Earthquake risk is high in much of the southern half of Alaska, but it is not the same everywhere. This map shows the overall geologic setting in Alaska that produces earthquakes. The Pacific plate (darker blue) is sliding northwestward past southeastern Alaska and then dives beneath the North American plate (light blue, green, and brown) in southern Alaska, the Alaska Peninsula, and the Aleutian Islands. Most earthquakes are produced where these two plates come into contact and slide past each other. Major earthquakes also occur throughout much of interior Alaska as a result of collision of a piece of crust with the southern margin.
Lisbon 1755, a multiple-rupture earthquake
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fonseca, J. F. B. D.
2017-12-01
The Lisbon earthquake of 1755 poses a challenge to seismic hazard assessment. Reports pointing to MMI 8 or above at distances of the order of 500km led to magnitude estimates near M9 in classic studies. A refined analysis of the coeval sources lowered the estimates to 8.7 (Johnston, 1998) and 8.5 (Martinez-Solares, 2004). I posit that even these lower magnitude values reflect the combined effect of multiple ruptures. Attempts to identify a single source capable of explaining the damage reports with published ground motion models did not gather consensus and, compounding the challenge, the analysis of tsunami traveltimes has led to disparate source models, sometimes separated by a few hundred kilometers. From this viewpoint, the most credible source would combine a sub-set of the multiple active structures identifiable in SW Iberia. No individual moment magnitude needs to be above M8.1, thus rendering the search for candidate structures less challenging. The possible combinations of active structures should be ranked as a function of their explaining power, for macroseismic intensities and tsunami traveltimes taken together. I argue that the Lisbon 1755 earthquake is an example of a distinct class of intraplate earthquake previously unrecognized, of which the Indian Ocean earthquake of 2012 is the first instrumentally recorded example, showing space and time correlation over scales of the orders of a few hundred km and a few minutes. Other examples may exist in the historical record, such as the M8 1556 Shaanxi earthquake, with an unusually large damage footprint (MMI equal or above 6 in 10 provinces; 830000 fatalities). The ability to trigger seismicity globally, observed after the 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake, may be a characteristic of this type of event: occurrences in Massachussets (M5.9 Cape Ann earthquake on 18/11/1755), Morocco (M6.5 Fez earthquake on 27/11/1755) and Germany (M6.1 Duren earthquake, on 18/02/1756) had in all likelyhood a causal link to the
The Himalayan Seismogenic Zone: A New Frontier for Earthquake Research
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Brown, Larry; Hubbard, Judith; Karplus, Marianne; Klemperer, Simon; Sato, Hiroshi
2016-04-01
The Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake that occurred on April 25 of this year was a dramatic reminder that great earthquakes are not restricted to the large seismogenic zones associated with subduction of oceanic lithosphere. Not only does Himalayan seismogenesis represents important scientific and societal issues in its own right, it constitutes a reference for evaluating general models of the earthquake cycle derived from the studies of the oceanic subduction systems. This presentation reports results of a Mini-Workshop sponsored by the GeoPrisms project that was held in conjunction with the American Geophysical Union on December 15, 2015, designed to organize a new initiative to study the great Himalaya earthquake machine. The Himalayan seismogenic zone shares with its oceanic counterparts a number of fundamental questions, including: a) What controls the updip and downdip limits of rupture? b) What controls the lateral segmentation of rupture zones (and hence magnitude)? c) What is the role of fluids in facilitating slip and or rupture? d) What nucleates rupture (e..g. asperities?)? e) What physical properties can be monitored as precursors to future events? f) How effectively can the radiation pattern of future events be modeled? g) How can a better understanding of Himalayan rupture be translated into more cost effective preparations for the next major event in this region? However the underthrusting of continental, as opposed to oceanic, lithosphere in the Himalayas frames these questions in a very different context: h) How does the greater thickness and weaker rheology of continental crust/lithosphere affect locking of the seismogenic zone? i) How does the different thermal structure of continental vs oceanic crust affect earthquake geodynamics? j) Are fluids a significant factor in intercontinental thrusting? k) How does the basement morphology of underthrust continental crust affect locking/creep, and how does it differ from the oceanic case? l) What is the
Biomarker responses of mussels exposed to earthquake disturbances
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chandurvelan, Rathishri; Marsden, Islay D.; Glover, Chris N.; Gaw, Sally
2016-12-01
The green-lipped mussel, Perna canaliculus is recognised as a bioindicator of coastal contamination in New Zealand (NZ). Mussels (shell length 60-80 mm) were collected from three intertidal areas of Canterbury in the South Island of NZ prior to extreme earthquake disturbances on 22nd February 2011, and 9 months later in October 2011. Trace elements, including arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), copper (Cu), lead (Pb), nickel (Ni), and zinc (Zn), were measured in the gills, digestive gland, foot and mantle. Metal levels in tissues were site specific, and mostly unaffected by earthquake disturbances. Physiological biomarkers were negatively affected by earthquake disturbances and mussels from the Port of Lyttelton had higher negative scope for growth post-earthquake. Metallothionein-like protein in the digestive gland correlated with metal content of tissues, as did catalase activity in the gill and lipid peroxidation values for the digestive gland. This research demonstrates that physiological and other biomarkers are effective at detecting the effects of multiple stressors following seismic disturbances.
The 23 April 1909 Benavente earthquake (Portugal): macroseismic field revision
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Teves-Costa, Paula; Batlló, Josep
2011-01-01
The 23 April 1909 earthquake, with epicentre near Benavente (Portugal), was the largest crustal earthquake in the Iberian Peninsula during the twentieth century ( M w = 6.0). Due to its importance, several studies were developed soon after its occurrence, in Portugal and in Spain. A perusal of the different studies on the macroseismic field of this earthquake showed some discrepancies, in particular on the abnormal patterns of the isoseismal curves in Spain. Besides, a complete list of intensity data points for the event is unavailable at present. Seismic moment, focal mechanism and other earthquake parameters obtained from the instrumental records have been recently reviewed and recalculated. Revision of the macroseismic field of this earthquake poses a unique opportunity to study macroseismic propagation and local effects in central Iberian Peninsula. For this reasons, a search to collect new macroseismic data for this earthquake has been carried out, and a re-evaluation of the whole set has been performed and it is presented here. Special attention is paid to the observed low attenuation of the macroseismic effects, heterogeneous propagation and the distortion introduced by local amplifications. Results of this study indicate, in general, an overestimation of the intensity degrees previously assigned to this earthquake in Spain; also it illustrates how difficult it is to assign an intensity degree to a large town, where local effects play an important role, and confirms the low attenuation of seismic propagation inside the Iberian Peninsula from west and southwest to east and northeast.
Earthquakes, November-December 1973
Person, W.J.
1974-01-01
Other parts of the world suffered fatalities and significant damage from earthquakes. In Iran, an earthquake killed one person, injured many, and destroyed a number of homes. Earthquake fatalities also occurred in the Azores and in Algeria.
Dynamic strains for earthquake source characterization
Barbour, Andrew J.; Crowell, Brendan W
2017-01-01
Strainmeters measure elastodynamic deformation associated with earthquakes over a broad frequency band, with detection characteristics that complement traditional instrumentation, but they are commonly used to study slow transient deformation along active faults and at subduction zones, for example. Here, we analyze dynamic strains at Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) borehole strainmeters (BSM) associated with 146 local and regional earthquakes from 2004–2014, with magnitudes from M 4.5 to 7.2. We find that peak values in seismic strain can be predicted from a general regression against distance and magnitude, with improvements in accuracy gained by accounting for biases associated with site–station effects and source–path effects, the latter exhibiting the strongest influence on the regression coefficients. To account for the influence of these biases in a general way, we include crustal‐type classifications from the CRUST1.0 global velocity model, which demonstrates that high‐frequency strain data from the PBO BSM network carry information on crustal structure and fault mechanics: earthquakes nucleating offshore on the Blanco fracture zone, for example, generate consistently lower dynamic strains than earthquakes around the Sierra Nevada microplate and in the Salton trough. Finally, we test our dynamic strain prediction equations on the 2011 M 9 Tohoku‐Oki earthquake, specifically continuous strain records derived from triangulation of 137 high‐rate Global Navigation Satellite System Earth Observation Network stations in Japan. Moment magnitudes inferred from these data and the strain model are in agreement when Global Positioning System subnetworks are unaffected by spatial aliasing.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Florin Bǎlan, Å.Tefan; Apostol, Bogdan; Chitea, F.; Anghelache, Mirela Adriana; Cioflan, Carmen O.; Serban, A.
2010-05-01
The discussed area, Tulcea, is delimitated by the Scythian Platform in the North and Moessian Platform in the South, not far from the Black Sea coast. Natural disasters in the city could occur due to Vrancea intermediate-depth (subcrustal) earthquakes and crustal earthquakes caused by active faults. In the last 30 years three important seismic events affected the region of interest with the following recorded magnitudes: MW = 5.1 (13.11.1981) followed in the same day by 6 aftershocks (at depth 0-9 km) with MW = 2.9-3.3; MW = 5 (27.04.1986) and MW = 4.9 (3.10.2004) followed by two aftershocks. Information about the seismic zone of Tulcea is from three seismic catalogues made by Florinescu (1958), Constantinescu and Mârza (1980) and ROMPLUS (2008), but for urban planning of Tulcea city is very important to be better understood the effect of active faults (Măcin-Cerna, Tulcea-Isaccea, Peceneaga-Camena etc) located in the Pre-Dobrogean Depression (our interest area) in the two parts of the city. Regarding the effects of Vrancea subcrustal earthquakes, as the Tulcea city is situated relatively at a large distance from the epicenters, there is necessary to improve the actual method of microzonation based on Medvedev's method. In order to discuss the local seismic site effects we have considered two scenarios, which take into account the characteristics of the seismogenic area. The first one considers the city exposed to a seismic event with magnitude Mw = 5.1 from Sf. Gheorghe fault and the second one considers the city exposed to an earthquake from the EV zone (superficial). The earthquake epicentres are located in very active seismic areas. The absolute response spectra at the bedrock and at surface will be calculated and the characteristic transfer functions, as well. Nonlinear effects induced by significant deformations need a certain method - linear equivalent - for a multistratified zone, as we considered for the Tulcea superficial area. Therefore, important
Triggering Factor of Strong Earthquakes and Its Prediction Verification
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ren, Z. Q.; Ren, S. H.
After 30 yearsS research, we have found that great earthquakes are triggered by tide- generation force of the moon. ItSs not the tide-generation force in classical view- points, but is a non-classical viewpoint tide-generation force. We call it as TGFR (Tide-Generation ForcesS Resonance). TGFR strongly depends on the tide-generation force at time of the strange astronomical points (SAP). The SAP mostly are when the moon and another celestial body are arranged with the earth along a straight line (with the same apparent right ascension or 180o difference), the other SAP are the turning points of the moonSs relatively motion to the earth. Moreover, TGFR have four different types effective areas. Our study indicates that a majority of earthquakes are triggering by the rare superimposition of TGFRsS effective areas. In China the great earthquakes in the plain area of Hebei Province, Taiwan, Yunnan Province and Sichuan province are trigger by the decompression TGFR; Other earthquakes are trig- gered by compression TGFR which are in Gansu Province, Ningxia Provinces and northwest direction of Beijing. The great earthquakes in Japan, California, southeast of Europe also are triggered by compression of the TGFR. and in the other part of the world like in Philippines, Central America countries, and West Asia, great earthquakes are triggered by decompression TGFR. We have carried out examinational immediate prediction cooperate TGFR method with other earthquake impending signals such as suggested by Professor Li Junzhi. The successful ratio is about 40%(from our fore- cast reports to the China Seismological Administration). Thus we could say the great earthquake can be predicted (include immediate earthquake prediction). Key words: imminent prediction; triggering factor; TGFR (Tide-Generation ForcesS Resonance); TGFR compression; TGFR compression zone; TGFR decompression; TGFR decom- pression zone
Chu, Zhi-gang; Yang, Zhi-gang; Dong, Zhi-hui; Chen, Tian-wu; Zhu, Zhi-yu; Shao, Heng
2011-01-01
OBJECTIVE: The features of earthquake-related head injuries may be different from those of injuries obtained in daily life because of differences in circumstances. We aim to compare the features of head traumas caused by the Sichuan earthquake with those of other common head traumas using multidetector computed tomography. METHODS: In total, 221 patients with earthquake-related head traumas (the earthquake group) and 221 patients with other common head traumas (the non-earthquake group) were enrolled in our study, and their computed tomographic findings were compared. We focused the differences between fractures and intracranial injuries and the relationships between extracranial and intracranial injuries. RESULTS: More earthquake-related cases had only extracranial soft tissue injuries (50.7% vs. 26.2%, RR = 1.9), and fewer cases had intracranial injuries (17.2% vs. 50.7%, RR = 0.3) compared with the non-earthquake group. For patients with fractures and intracranial injuries, there were fewer cases with craniocerebral injuries in the earthquake group (60.6% vs. 77.9%, RR = 0.8), and the earthquake-injured patients had fewer fractures and intracranial injuries overall (1.5±0.9 vs. 2.5±1.8; 1.3±0.5 vs. 2.1±1.1). Compared with the non-earthquake group, the incidences of soft tissue injuries and cranial fractures combined with intracranial injuries in the earthquake group were significantly lower (9.8% vs. 43.7%, RR = 0.2; 35.1% vs. 82.2%, RR = 0.4). CONCLUSION: As depicted with computed tomography, the severity of earthquake-related head traumas in survivors was milder, and isolated extracranial injuries were more common in earthquake-related head traumas than in non-earthquake-related injuries, which may have been the result of different injury causes, mechanisms and settings. PMID:22012045
VLF/LF Radio Sounding of Ionospheric Perturbations Associated with Earthquakes
Hayakawa, Masashi
2007-01-01
It is recently recognized that the ionosphere is very sensitive to seismic effects, and the detection of ionospheric perturbations associated with earthquakes, seems to be very promising for short-term earthquake prediction. We have proposed a possible use of VLF/LF (very low frequency (3-30 kHz) /low frequency (30-300 kHz)) radio sounding of the seismo-ionospheric perturbations. A brief history of the use of subionospheric VLF/LF propagation for the short-term earthquake prediction is given, followed by a significant finding of ionospheric perturbation for the Kobe earthquake in 1995. After showing previous VLF/LF results, we present the latest VLF/LF findings; One is the statistical correlation of the ionospheric perturbation with earthquakes and the second is a case study for the Sumatra earthquake in December, 2004, indicating the spatical scale and dynamics of ionospheric perturbation for this earthquake.
Earthquake Education in Prime Time
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
de Groot, R.; Abbott, P.; Benthien, M.
2004-12-01
Since 2001, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has collaborated on several video production projects that feature important topics related to earthquake science, engineering, and preparedness. These projects have also fostered many fruitful and sustained partnerships with a variety of organizations that have a stake in hazard education and preparedness. The Seismic Sleuths educational video first appeared in the spring season 2001 on Discovery Channel's Assignment Discovery. Seismic Sleuths is based on a highly successful curriculum package developed jointly by the American Geophysical Union and The Department of Homeland Security Federal Emergency Management Agency. The California Earthquake Authority (CEA) and the Institute for Business and Home Safety supported the video project. Summer Productions, a company with a reputation for quality science programming, produced the Seismic Sleuths program in close partnership with scientists, engineers, and preparedness experts. The program has aired on the National Geographic Channel as recently as Fall 2004. Currently, SCEC is collaborating with Pat Abbott, a geology professor at San Diego State University (SDSU) on the video project Written In Stone: Earthquake Country - Los Angeles. Partners on this project include the California Seismic Safety Commission, SDSU, SCEC, CEA, and the Insurance Information Network of California. This video incorporates live-action demonstrations, vivid animations, and a compelling host (Abbott) to tell the story about earthquakes in the Los Angeles region. The Written in Stone team has also developed a comprehensive educator package that includes the video, maps, lesson plans, and other supporting materials. We will present the process that facilitates the creation of visually effective, factually accurate, and entertaining video programs. We acknowledge the need to have a broad understanding of the literature related to communication, media studies, science education, and
Person, W.J.
1992-01-01
In the United States, a magnitude 5.8 earthquake in southern California on June 28 killed two people and caused considerable damage. Strong earthquakes hit Alaska on May 1 and May 30; the May 1 earthquake caused some minor damage.
Pollitz, F.F.; Sacks, I.S.
2002-01-01
The M 7.3 June 28, 1992 Landers and M 7.1 October 16, 1999 Hector Mine earthquakes, California, both right lateral strike-slip events on NNW-trending subvertical faults, occurred in close proximity in space and time in a region where recurrence times for surface-rupturing earthquakes are thousands of years. This suggests a causal role for the Landers earthquake in triggering the Hector Mine earthquake. Previous modeling of the static stress change associated with the Landers earthquake shows that the area of peak Hector Mine slip lies where the Coulomb failure stress promoting right-lateral strike-slip failure was high, but the nucleation point of the Hector Mine rupture was neutrally to weakly promoted, depending on the assumed coefficient of friction. Possible explanations that could account for the 7-year delay between the two ruptures include background tectonic stressing, dissipation of fluid pressure gradients, rate- and state-dependent friction effects, and post-Landers viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle. By employing a viscoelastic model calibrated by geodetic data collected during the time period between the Landers and Hector Mine events, we calculate that postseismic relaxation produced a transient increase in Coulomb failure stress of about 0.7 bars on the impending Hector Mine rupture surface. The increase is greatest over the broad surface that includes the 1999 nucleation point and the site of peak slip further north. Since stress changes of magnitude greater than or equal to 0.1 bar are associated with documented causal fault interactions elsewhere, viscoelastic relaxation likely contributed to the triggering of the Hector Mine earthquake. This interpretation relies on the assumption that the faults occupying the central Mojave Desert (i.e., both the Landers and Hector Mine rupturing faults) were critically stressed just prior to the Landers earthquake.
Plafker, George
1969-01-01
shows that vertical movements there were accompanied by horizontal distortion, involving systematic shifts of about 64 feet in a relative seaward direction. Comparable horizontal movements are presumed to have affected those parts of the major zones of uplift and subsidence for which retriangulation data are unavailable. Regional vertical deformation generated a train of destructive long-period seismic sea waves in the Gulf of Alaska as well as unique atmospheric and ionospheric disturbances that were recorded at points far distant from Alaska. Warping resulted in permanent tilt of larger lake basins and temporary reductions in discharge of some major rivers. Uplift and subsidence relative to sea level caused profound modifications in shoreline morphology with attendant catastrophic effects on the nearshore biota and costly damage to coasta1 installations. Systematic horizontal movements of the land relative to bodies of confined or semiconfined water may have caused unexplained short-period waves—some of which were highly destructive—observed during or immediately after the earthquake at certain coastal localities and in Kenai Lake. Porosity increases, probably related to horizontal displacements in the zone of subsidence, were reflected in lowered well-water levels and in losses of surface water. The primary fault, or zone of faults, along which the earthquake occurred is not exposed at the surface on land. Focal-mechanism studies, when considered in conjunction with the pattern of deformation and seismicity, suggest that it was a complex thrust fault (megathrust) dipping at a gentle angle beneath the continental margin from the vicinity of the Aleutian Trench. Movement on the megathrust was accompanied by subsidiary reverse faulting, and perhaps wrench faulting, within the upper plate. Aftershock distribution suggests movement on a segment of the megathrust, some 550–600 miles long and 110–180 miles wide, that underlies most of the major zone of uplift and
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Luginbuhl, Molly; Rundle, John B.; Hawkins, Angela; Turcotte, Donald L.
2018-01-01
Nowcasting is a new method of statistically classifying seismicity and seismic risk (Rundle et al. 2016). In this paper, the method is applied to the induced seismicity at the Geysers geothermal region in California and the induced seismicity due to fluid injection in Oklahoma. Nowcasting utilizes the catalogs of seismicity in these regions. Two earthquake magnitudes are selected, one large say M_{λ } ≥ 4, and one small say M_{σ } ≥ 2. The method utilizes the number of small earthquakes that occurs between pairs of large earthquakes. The cumulative probability distribution of these values is obtained. The earthquake potential score (EPS) is defined by the number of small earthquakes that has occurred since the last large earthquake, the point where this number falls on the cumulative probability distribution of interevent counts defines the EPS. A major advantage of nowcasting is that it utilizes "natural time", earthquake counts, between events rather than clock time. Thus, it is not necessary to decluster aftershocks and the results are applicable if the level of induced seismicity varies in time. The application of natural time to the accumulation of the seismic hazard depends on the applicability of Gutenberg-Richter (GR) scaling. The increasing number of small earthquakes that occur after a large earthquake can be scaled to give the risk of a large earthquake occurring. To illustrate our approach, we utilize the number of M_{σ } ≥ 2.75 earthquakes in Oklahoma to nowcast the number of M_{λ } ≥ 4.0 earthquakes in Oklahoma. The applicability of the scaling is illustrated during the rapid build-up of injection-induced seismicity between 2012 and 2016, and the subsequent reduction in seismicity associated with a reduction in fluid injections. The same method is applied to the geothermal-induced seismicity at the Geysers, California, for comparison.
VLF/LF Amplitude Perturbations before Tuscany Earthquakes, 2013
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Khadka, Balaram; Kandel, Keshav Prasad; Pant, Sudikshya; Bhatta, Karan; Ghimire, Basu Dev
2017-12-01
The US Navy VLF/LF Transmitter's NSY signal (45.9 kHz) transmitted from Niscemi, Sicily, Italy, and received at the Kiel Long Wave Monitor, Germany, was analyzed for the period of two months, May and June (EQ-month) of 2013. There were 12 earthquakes of magnitude greater than 4 that hit Italy in these two months, of which the earthquake of 21st June having magnitude of 5.2 and a shallow focal depth of 5 km was the major one. We studied the earthquake of 21st of June 2013, which struck Tuscany, Central Italy, (44.1713°N and 10.2082°E) at 10:33 UT, and also analyzed the effects of this earthquake on the sub-ionos- pheric VLF/LF signals. In addition, we also studied another earthquake, of magnitude 4.9, which hit the same place at 14:40 UT on 30th of June and had shallow focal depth of 10 km. We assessed the data using terminator time (TT) method and night time fluctuation method and found unusual changes in VLF/LF amplitudes/phases. Analysis of trend, night time dispers! ion, and night time fluctuation was also carried and several anomalies were detected. Most ionospheric perturbations in these parameters were found in the month of June, from few days to few weeks prior to the earthquakes. Moreover, we filtered the possible effects due to geomagnetic storms, auroras, and solar activities using parameters like Dst index, AE index, and Kp index for analyzing the geomagnetic effects, and Bz (sigma) index, sunspot numbers, and solar index F10.7 for analyzing the solar activities for the confirmation of anomalies as precursors.
Photointerpretation of Alaskan post-earthquake photography
Hackman, R.J.
1965-01-01
Aerial photographs taken after the March 27, 1964, Good Friday, Alaskan earthquake were examined stereoscopically to determine effects of the earthquake in areas remote from the towns, highways, and the railroad. The two thousand black and white photographs used in this study were taking in April, after the earthquake, by the U. S. Coast & Geodetic Survey and were generously supplied to the U. S. Geological Survey. Part of the photographs, at a scale of 1/24,000, provide blanket coverage of approximately 2,000 square miles of land area north and west of Prince William Sound, including parts of the mainland and some of the adjacent islands. The epicenter of the earthquake, near the head of Unakwik Inlet, is located in this area. The rest of the photographs, at scales ranging from 1/17,000 to 1/40,000, cover isolated strips of the coastline of the mainland and nearby islands in the general area of Prince William Sound. Figure 1 shows the area of new photo coverage used in this study. The objective of the study was to determine quickly whether geological features resulting from the earthquake, such as faults, changes in shoreline, cracks in surficial material, pressure ridges in lake ice, fractures in glaciers and lake ice, and rock slides and avalanches, might be identifiable by photointerpretation. The study was made without benefit of comparisons with older, or pre-earthquake photography, which was not readily available for immediate use.
Road Damage Following Earthquake
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
1989-01-01
Ground shaking triggered liquefaction in a subsurface layer of water-saturated sand, producing differential lateral and vertical movement in a overlying carapace of unliquified sand and slit, which moved from right to left towards the Pajaro River. This mode of ground failure, termed lateral spreading, is a principal cause of liquefaction-related earthquake damage caused by the Oct. 17, 1989, Loma Prieta earthquake. Sand and soil grains have faces that can cause friction as they roll and slide against each other, or even cause sticking and form small voids between grains. This complex behavior can cause soil to behave like a liquid under certain conditions such as earthquakes or when powders are handled in industrial processes. Mechanics of Granular Materials (MGM) experiments aboard the Space Shuttle use the microgravity of space to simulate this behavior under conditons that carnot be achieved in laboratory tests on Earth. MGM is shedding light on the behavior of fine-grain materials under low effective stresses. Applications include earthquake engineering, granular flow technologies (such as powder feed systems for pharmaceuticals and fertilizers), and terrestrial and planetary geology. Nine MGM specimens have flown on two Space Shuttle flights. Another three are scheduled to fly on STS-107. The principal investigator is Stein Sture of the University of Colorado at Boulder. Credit: S.D. Ellen, U.S. Geological Survey
The 1906 earthquake and a century of progress in understanding earthquakes and their hazards
Zoback, M.L.
2006-01-01
The 18 April 1906 San Francisco earthquake killed nearly 3000 people and left 225,000 residents homeless. Three days after the earthquake, an eight-person Earthquake Investigation Commission composed of 25 geologists, seismologists, geodesists, biologists and engineers, as well as some 300 others started work under the supervision of Andrew Lawson to collect and document physical phenomena related to the quake . On 31 May 1906, the commission published a preliminary 17-page report titled "The Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission". The report included the bulk of the geological and morphological descriptions of the faulting, detailed reports on shaking intensity, as well as an impressive atlas of 40 oversized maps and folios. Nearly 100 years after its publication, the Commission Report remains a model for post-earthquake investigations. Because the diverse data sets were so complete and carefully documented, researchers continue to apply modern analysis techniques to learn from the 1906 earthquake. While the earthquake marked a seminal event in the history of California, it served as impetus for the birth of modern earthquake science in the United States.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Castaldini, D.; Genevois, R.; Panizza, M.; Puccinelli, A.; Berti, M.; Simoni, A.
This paper illustrates research addressing the subject of the earthquake-induced surface effects by means of a multidisciplinary approach: tectonics, neotectonics, seismology, geology, hydrogeology, geomorphology, soil/rock mechanics have been considered. The research is aimed to verify in areas affected by earthquake-triggered landslides a methodology for the identification of potentially unstable areas. The research was organized according to regional and local scale studies. In order to better emphasise the complexity of the relationships between all the parameters affecting the stability conditions of rock slopes in static and dynamic conditions a new integrated approach, Rock Engineering Systems (RES), was applied in the Northern Apennines. In the paper, the different phases of the research are described in detail and an example of the application of RES method in a sample area is reported. A significant aspect of the study can be seen in its attempt to overcome the exclusively qualitative aspects of research into the relationship between earthquakes and induced surface effects, and to advance the idea of beginning a process by which this interaction can be quantified.
Earthquakes; January-February, 1979
Person, W.J.
1979-01-01
The first major earthquake (magnitude 7.0 to 7.9) of the year struck in southeastern Alaska in a sparsely populated area on February 28. On January 16, Iran experienced the first destructive earthquake of the year causing a number of casualties and considerable damage. Peru was hit by a destructive earthquake on February 16 that left casualties and damage. A number of earthquakes were experienced in parts of the Untied States, but only minor damage was reported.
Preliminary results on earthquake triggered landslides for the Haiti earthquake (January 2010)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
van Westen, Cees; Gorum, Tolga
2010-05-01
This study presents the first results on an analysis of the landslides triggered by the Ms 7.0 Haiti earthquake that occurred on January 12, 2010 in the boundary region of the Pacific Plate and the North American plate. The fault is a left lateral strike slip fault with a clear surface expression. According to the USGS earthquake information the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault system has not produced any major earthquake in the last 100 years, and historical earthquakes are known from 1860, 1770, 1761, 1751, 1684, 1673, and 1618, though none of these has been confirmed in the field as associated with this fault. We used high resolution satellite imagery available for the pre and post earthquake situations, which were made freely available for the response and rescue operations. We made an interpretation of all co-seismic landslides in the epicentral area. We conclude that the earthquake mainly triggered landslide in the northern slope of the fault-related valley and in a number of isolated area. The earthquake apparently didn't trigger many visible landslides within the slum areas on the slopes in the southern part of Port-au-Prince and Carrefour. We also used ASTER DEM information to relate the landslide occurrences with DEM derivatives.
Seismomagnetic effects from the long-awaited 28 September 2004 M 6.0 parkfield earthquake
Johnston, M.J.S.; Sasai, Y.; Egbert, G.D.; Mueller, R.J.
2006-01-01
Precise measurements of local magnetic fields have been obtained with a differentially connected array of seven synchronized proton magnetometers located along 60 km of the locked-to-creeping transition region of the San Andreas fault at Parkfield, California, since 1976. The M 6.0 Parkfield earthquake on 28 September 2004, occurred within this array and generated coseismic magnetic field changes of between 0.2 and 0.5 nT at five sites in the network. No preseismic magnetic field changes exceeding background noise levels are apparent in the magnetic data during the month, week, and days before the earthquake (or expected in light of the absence of measurable precursive deformation, seismicity, or pore pressure changes). Observations of electric and magnetic fields from 0.01 to 20 Hz are also made at one site near the end of the earthquake rupture and corrected for common-mode signals from the ionosphere/magnetosphere using a second site some 115 km to the northwest along the fault. These magnetic data show no indications of unusual noise before the earthquake in the ULF band (0.01-20 Hz) as suggested may have preceded the 1989 ML 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake. Nor do we see electric field changes similar to those suggested to occur before earthquakes of this magnitude from data in Greece. Uniform and variable slip piezomagnetic models of the earthquake, derived from strain, displacement, and seismic data, generate magnetic field perturbations that are consistent with those observed by the magnetometer array. A higher rate of longer-term magnetic field change, consistent with increased loading in the region, is apparent since 1993. This accompanied an increased rate of secular shear strain observed on a two-color EDM network and a small network of borehole tensor strainmeters and increased seismicity dominated by three M 4.5-5 earthquakes roughly a year apart in 1992, 1993, and 1994. Models incorporating all of these data indicate increased slip at depth in the region
Quasi-dynamic earthquake fault systems with rheological heterogeneity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Brietzke, G. B.; Hainzl, S.; Zoeller, G.; Holschneider, M.
2009-12-01
Seismic risk and hazard estimates mostly use pure empirical, stochastic models of earthquake fault systems tuned specifically to the vulnerable areas of interest. Although such models allow for reasonable risk estimates, such models cannot allow for physical statements of the described seismicity. In contrary such empirical stochastic models, physics based earthquake fault systems models allow for a physical reasoning and interpretation of the produced seismicity and system dynamics. Recently different fault system earthquake simulators based on frictional stick-slip behavior have been used to study effects of stress heterogeneity, rheological heterogeneity, or geometrical complexity on earthquake occurrence, spatial and temporal clustering of earthquakes, and system dynamics. Here we present a comparison of characteristics of synthetic earthquake catalogs produced by two different formulations of quasi-dynamic fault system earthquake simulators. Both models are based on discretized frictional faults embedded in an elastic half-space. While one (1) is governed by rate- and state-dependent friction with allowing three evolutionary stages of independent fault patches, the other (2) is governed by instantaneous frictional weakening with scheduled (and therefore causal) stress transfer. We analyze spatial and temporal clustering of events and characteristics of system dynamics by means of physical parameters of the two approaches.
Turkish Compulsory Earthquake Insurance (TCIP)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Erdik, M.; Durukal, E.; Sesetyan, K.
2009-04-01
Through a World Bank project a government-sponsored Turkish Catastrophic Insurance Pool (TCIP) is created in 2000 with the essential aim of transferring the government's financial burden of replacing earthquake-damaged housing to international reinsurance and capital markets. Providing coverage to about 2.9 Million homeowners TCIP is the largest insurance program in the country with about 0.5 Billion USD in its own reserves and about 2.3 Billion USD in total claims paying capacity. The total payment for earthquake damage since 2000 (mostly small, 226 earthquakes) amounts to about 13 Million USD. The country-wide penetration rate is about 22%, highest in the Marmara region (30%) and lowest in the south-east Turkey (9%). TCIP is the sole-source provider of earthquake loss coverage up to 90,000 USD per house. The annual premium, categorized on the basis of earthquake zones type of structure, is about US90 for a 100 square meter reinforced concrete building in the most hazardous zone with 2% deductible. The earthquake engineering related shortcomings of the TCIP is exemplified by fact that the average rate of 0.13% (for reinforced concrete buildings) with only 2% deductible is rather low compared to countries with similar earthquake exposure. From an earthquake engineering point of view the risk underwriting (Typification of housing units to be insured, earthquake intensity zonation and the sum insured) of the TCIP needs to be overhauled. Especially for large cities, models can be developed where its expected earthquake performance (and consequently the insurance premium) can be can be assessed on the basis of the location of the unit (microzoned earthquake hazard) and basic structural attributes (earthquake vulnerability relationships). With such an approach, in the future the TCIP can contribute to the control of construction through differentiation of premia on the basis of earthquake vulnerability.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Koketsu, K.; Ikegami, Y.; Kimura, T.; Miyake, H.
2006-12-01
Large earthquakes at shallow depths can excite long-period ground motions affecting large-scale structures in distant sedimentary basins. For example, the 1985 Michoacan, Mexico, earthquake caused 20,000 fatalities in Mexico City at an epicentral distance of 400 km, and the 2003 Tokachi-oki, Japan, earthquake damaged oil tanks in the Yufutsu basin 250 km away (Koketsu et al., 2005). Similar long-range effects were also observed during the 2004 off Kii-peninsula earthquake (Miyake and Koketsu, 2005). In order to examine whether the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and the Los Angeles (LA) basin are in such a case or not, we simulate long- period ground motions in almost whole California caused by the earthquake using the finite element method (FEM) with a voxel mesh (Koketsu et al., 2004). The LA basin is located at a distance of about 600 km from the source region of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. The 3-D heterogeneous velocity structure model for the ground motion simulation is constructed based on the SCEC Unified Velocity Model for southern California and USGS Bay Area Velocity Model for northern California. The source model of the earthquake is constructed according to Wald et al. (1993). Since we use a mesh with intervals of 500m, the voxel FEM can compute seismic waves with frequencies lower than 0.2 Hz. Although ground motions in the south of the source region are smaller than those in the north because of the rupture directivity effect, we can see fairly developed long- period ground motions in the LA basin in the preliminary result of Kimura et al. (2006). However, we obtained only 8cm/s and 25km/s for PGV and peak velocity response spectrum in the LA basin. We modeled the velocity structure up to a depth of only 20km neglecting the Moho reflections, and we did not include layers with Vs smaller than 1.0 km/s. In this study, we include deeper parts and use a more accurate velocity structure model with low-velocity sediments of Vs smaller than 1.0 km/s.
Revisiting the November 27, 1945 Makran (Mw=8.2) interplate earthquake
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zarifi, Z.; Raeesi, M.
2012-04-01
good confirm signals of a mature cycle of earthquake to the west of the rupture area of the 1945 event. These evidences include distribution of extensional earthquakes at intermediate depths and compressional events in the overriding plate. Revisiting the 1945 earthquake can provide lessons for understanding the behavior of MSZ and its future large events.
Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction
Dieterich, J.H.; Kilgore, B.
1996-01-01
The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance D(c), apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time- dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of D, apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of D(c) is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.
Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.
Dieterich, J H; Kilgore, B
1996-01-01
The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks. Images Fig. 3 PMID:11607666
Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.
Dieterich, J H; Kilgore, B
1996-04-30
The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.
Earthquake Archaeology: a logical approach?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stewart, I. S.; Buck, V. A.
2001-12-01
Ancient earthquakes can leave their mark in the mythical and literary accounts of ancient peoples, the stratigraphy of their site histories, and the structural integrity of their constructions. Within this broad cross-disciplinary tramping ground, earthquake geologists have tended to focus on those aspects of the cultural record that are most familiar to them; the physical effects of seismic deformation on ancient constructions. One of the core difficulties with this 'earthquake archaeology' approach is that recent attempts to isolate structural criteria that are diagnostic or strongly suggestive of a seismic origin are undermined by the recognition that signs of ancient seismicity are generally indistinguishable from non-seismic mechanisms (poor construction, adverse geotechnical conditions). We illustrate the difficulties and inconsistencies in current proposed 'earthquake diagnostic' schemes by reference to two case studies of archaeoseismic damage in central Greece. The first concerns fallen columns at various Classical temple localities in mainland Greece (Nemea, Sounio, Olympia, Bassai) which, on the basis of observed structural criteria, are earthquake-induced but which are alternatively explained by archaeologists as the action of human disturbance. The second re-examines the almost type example of the Kyparissi site in the Atalanti region as a Classical stoa offset across a seismic surface fault, arguing instead for its deformation by ground instability. Finally, in highlighting the inherent ambiguity of archaeoseismic data, we consider the value of a logic-tree approach for quantifying and quantifying our uncertainities for seismic-hazard analysis.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stavrianaki, K.; Ross, G.; Sammonds, P. R.
2015-12-01
The clustering of earthquakes in time and space is widely accepted, however the existence of correlations in earthquake magnitudes is more questionable. In standard models of seismic activity, it is usually assumed that magnitudes are independent and therefore in principle unpredictable. Our work seeks to test this assumption by analysing magnitude correlation between earthquakes and their aftershocks. To separate mainshocks from aftershocks, we perform stochastic declustering based on the widely used Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, which allows us to then compare the average magnitudes of aftershock sequences to that of their mainshock. The results of earthquake magnitude correlations were compared with acoustic emissions (AE) from laboratory analog experiments, as fracturing generates both AE at the laboratory scale and earthquakes on a crustal scale. Constant stress and constant strain rate experiments were done on Darley Dale sandstone under confining pressure to simulate depth of burial. Microcracking activity inside the rock volume was analyzed by the AE technique as a proxy for earthquakes. Applying the ETAS model to experimental data allowed us to validate our results and provide for the first time a holistic view on the correlation of earthquake magnitudes. Additionally we search the relationship between the conditional intensity estimates of the ETAS model and the earthquake magnitudes. A positive relation would suggest the existence of magnitude correlations. The aim of this study is to observe any trends of dependency between the magnitudes of aftershock earthquakes and the earthquakes that trigger them.
Complex earthquake rupture and local tsunamis
Geist, E.L.
2002-01-01
In contrast to far-field tsunami amplitudes that are fairly well predicted by the seismic moment of subduction zone earthquakes, there exists significant variation in the scaling of local tsunami amplitude with respect to seismic moment. From a global catalog of tsunami runup observations this variability is greatest for the most frequently occuring tsunamigenic subduction zone earthquakes in the magnitude range of 7 < Mw < 8.5. Variability in local tsunami runup scaling can be ascribed to tsunami source parameters that are independent of seismic moment: variations in the water depth in the source region, the combination of higher slip and lower shear modulus at shallow depth, and rupture complexity in the form of heterogeneous slip distribution patterns. The focus of this study is on the effect that rupture complexity has on the local tsunami wave field. A wide range of slip distribution patterns are generated using a stochastic, self-affine source model that is consistent with the falloff of far-field seismic displacement spectra at high frequencies. The synthetic slip distributions generated by the stochastic source model are discretized and the vertical displacement fields from point source elastic dislocation expressions are superimposed to compute the coseismic vertical displacement field. For shallow subduction zone earthquakes it is demonstrated that self-affine irregularities of the slip distribution result in significant variations in local tsunami amplitude. The effects of rupture complexity are less pronounced for earthquakes at greater depth or along faults with steep dip angles. For a test region along the Pacific coast of central Mexico, peak nearshore tsunami amplitude is calculated for a large number (N = 100) of synthetic slip distribution patterns, all with identical seismic moment (Mw = 8.1). Analysis of the results indicates that for earthquakes of a fixed location, geometry, and seismic moment, peak nearshore tsunami amplitude can vary by a
Slab-pull and slab-push earthquakes in the Mexican, Chilean and Peruvian subduction zones
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lemoine, A.; Madariaga, R.; Campos, J.
2002-09-01
We studied intermediate depth earthquakes in the Chile, Peru and Mexican subduction zones, paying special attention to slab-push (down-dip compression) and slab-pull (down-dip extension) mechanisms. Although, slab-push events are relatively rare in comparison with slab-pull earthquakes, quite a few have occurred recently. In Peru, a couple slab-push events occurred in 1991 and one slab-pull together with several slab-push events occurred in 1970 near Chimbote. In Mexico, several slab-push and slab-pull events occurred near Zihuatanejo below the fault zone of the 1985 Michoacan event. In central Chile, a large M=7.1 slab-push event occurred in October 1997 that followed a series of four shallow Mw>6 thrust earthquakes on the plate interface. We used teleseismic body waveform inversion of a number of Mw>5.9 slab-push and slab-pull earthquakes in order to obtain accurate mechanisms, depths and source time functions. We used a master event method in order to get relative locations. We discussed the occurrence of the relatively rare slab-push events in the three subduction zones. Were they due to the geometry of the subduction that produces flexure inside the downgoing slab, or were they produced by stress transfer during the earthquake cycle? Stress transfer can not explain the occurence of several compressional and extensional intraplate intermediate depth earthquakes in central Chile, central Mexico and central Peru. It seemed that the heterogeneity of the stress field produced by complex slab geometry has an important influence on intraplate intermediate depth earthquakes.
Testing prediction methods: Earthquake clustering versus the Poisson model
Michael, A.J.
1997-01-01
Testing earthquake prediction methods requires statistical techniques that compare observed success to random chance. One technique is to produce simulated earthquake catalogs and measure the relative success of predicting real and simulated earthquakes. The accuracy of these tests depends on the validity of the statistical model used to simulate the earthquakes. This study tests the effect of clustering in the statistical earthquake model on the results. Three simulation models were used to produce significance levels for a VLF earthquake prediction method. As the degree of simulated clustering increases, the statistical significance drops. Hence, the use of a seismicity model with insufficient clustering can lead to overly optimistic results. A successful method must pass the statistical tests with a model that fully replicates the observed clustering. However, a method can be rejected based on tests with a model that contains insufficient clustering. U.S. copyright. Published in 1997 by the American Geophysical Union.
Future WGCEP Models and the Need for Earthquake Simulators
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Field, E. H.
2008-12-01
The 2008 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) recently released the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast version 2 (UCERF 2), developed jointly by the USGS, CGS, and SCEC with significant support from the California Earthquake Authority. Although this model embodies several significant improvements over previous WGCEPs, the following are some of the significant shortcomings that we hope to resolve in a future UCERF3: 1) assumptions of fault segmentation and the lack of fault-to-fault ruptures; 2) the lack of an internally consistent methodology for computing time-dependent, elastic-rebound-motivated renewal probabilities; 3) the lack of earthquake clustering/triggering effects; and 4) unwarranted model complexity. It is believed by some that physics-based earthquake simulators will be key to resolving these issues, either as exploratory tools to help guide the present statistical approaches, or as a means to forecast earthquakes directly (although significant challenges remain with respect to the latter).
Building Capacity for Earthquake Monitoring: Linking Regional Networks with the Global Community
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Willemann, R. J.; Lerner-Lam, A.
2006-12-01
Installing or upgrading a seismic monitoring network is often among the mitigation efforts after earthquake disasters, and this is happening in response to the events both in Sumatra during December 2004 and in Pakistan during October 2005. These networks can yield improved hazard assessment, more resilient buildings where they are most needed, and emergency relief directed more quickly to the worst hit areas after the next large earthquake. Several commercial organizations are well prepared for the fleeting opportunity to provide the instruments that comprise a seismic network, including sensors, data loggers, telemetry stations, and the computers and software required for the network center. But seismic monitoring requires more than hardware and software, no matter how advanced. A well-trained staff is required to select appropriate and mutually compatible components, install and maintain telemetered stations, manage and archive data, and perform the analyses that actually yield the intended benefits. Monitoring is more effective when network operators cooperate with a larger community through free and open exchange of data, sharing information about working practices, and international collaboration in research. As an academic consortium, a facility operator and a founding member of the International Federation of Digital Seismographic Networks, IRIS has access to a broad range of expertise with the skills that are required to help design, install, and operate a seismic network and earthquake analysis center, and stimulate the core training for the professional teams required to establish and maintain these facilities. But delivering expertise quickly when and where it is unexpectedly in demand requires advance planning and coordination in order to respond to the needs of organizations that are building a seismic network, either with tight time constraints imposed by the budget cycles of aid agencies following a disastrous earthquake, or as part of more informed
Putting down roots in earthquake country-Your handbook for earthquakes in the Central United States
Contributors: Dart, Richard; McCarthy, Jill; McCallister, Natasha; Williams, Robert A.
2011-01-01
This handbook provides information to residents of the Central United States about the threat of earthquakes in that area, particularly along the New Madrid seismic zone, and explains how to prepare for, survive, and recover from such events. It explains the need for concern about earthquakes for those residents and describes what one can expect during and after an earthquake. Much is known about the threat of earthquakes in the Central United States, including where they are likely to occur and what can be done to reduce losses from future earthquakes, but not enough has been done to prepare for future earthquakes. The handbook describes such preparations that can be taken by individual residents before an earthquake to be safe and protect property.
Important Earthquake Engineering Resources
PEER logo Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center home about peer news events research Engineering Resources Site Map Search Important Earthquake Engineering Resources - American Concrete Institute Motion Observation Systems (COSMOS) - Consortium of Universities for Research in Earthquake Engineering
Qiu, Jiang; Su, Yanhua; Li, Hong; Wei, Dongtao; Tu, Shen; Zhang, Qinglin
2010-11-01
Event-related brain potentials (ERPs) were measured when 24 Chinese subjects performed the classical Stroop task. All of subjects had experienced the great Sichuan earthquake (5/12), with 12 people in each of the Far (Chengdu city) and the Close (Deyang city) earthquake experience groups. The behavioral data showed that the Stroop task yielded a robust Stroop interference effect as indexed by longer RT for incongruent than congruent color words in both the Chengdu and Deyang groups. Scalp ERP data showed that incongruent stimuli elicited a more negative ERP deflection (N400-600; Stroop interference effect) than did congruent stimuli between 400-600 ms in the Chengdu group, while the Stroop interference ERP effect was not found in the Deyang group. Dipole source analysis localized the generator of the N400-600 in the right prefrontal cortex (PFC) and was possibly related to conflict monitoring and cognitive control. Copyright © 2010 Society for Psychophysiological Research.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kurtz, R.; Klinger, Y.; Ferry, M.; Ritz, J.-F.
2018-06-01
The 1957, MW 8.1, Gobi-Altai earthquake, Southern Mongolia, produced a 360-km-long surface rupture along the Eastern Bogd fault. Cumulative offsets of geomorphic features suggest that the Eastern Bogd fault might produce characteristic slip over the last seismic cycles. Using orthophotographs derived from a dataset of historical aerial photographs acquired in 1958, we measured horizontal offsets along two thirds ( 170 km) of the 1957 left-lateral strike-slip surface rupture. We propose a new empirical methodology to extract the average slip for each past earthquake that could be recognized along successive fault segments, to determine the slip distribution associated with successive past earthquakes. Our results suggest that the horizontal slip distribution of the 1957 Gobi-Altai earthquake is fairly flat, with an average offset of 3.5 m ± 1.3 m. A combination of our lateral measurements with vertical displacements derived from the literature, allows us to re-assess the magnitude of the Gobi-Altai earthquake to be between MW 7.8 and MW 8.2, depending on the depth of the rupture, and related value of the shear modulus. When comparing this magnitude to magnitudes derived from seismic data, it suggests that the rupture may have extended deeper than the 15 km to 20 km usually considered for the seismogenic crust. We observe that some fault segments are more likely than others to record seismic deformation through several seismic cycles, depending on the local rupture complexity and geomorphology. Additionally, our results allow us to model the horizontal slip function for the 1957 Gobi-Altai earthquake and for three previous paleoseismic events along 70% of the studied area. Along about 50% of the fault sections where we could recognize three past earthquakes, our results suggest that the slip per event was similar for each earthquake.
Repeating Earthquakes Following an Mw 4.4 Earthquake Near Luther, Oklahoma
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Clements, T.; Keranen, K. M.; Savage, H. M.
2015-12-01
An Mw 4.4 earthquake on April 16, 2013 near Luther, OK was one of the earliest M4+ earthquakes in central Oklahoma, following the Prague sequence in 2011. A network of four local broadband seismometers deployed within a day of the Mw 4.4 event, along with six Oklahoma netquake stations, recorded more than 500 aftershocks in the two weeks following the Luther earthquake. Here we use HypoDD (Waldhauser & Ellsworth, 2000) and waveform cross-correlation to obtain precise aftershock locations. The location uncertainty, calculated using the SVD method in HypoDD, is ~15 m horizontally and ~ 35 m vertically. The earthquakes define a near vertical, NE-SW striking fault plane. Events occur at depths from 2 km to 3.5 km within the granitic basement, with a small fraction of events shallower, near the sediment-basement interface. Earthquakes occur within a zone of ~200 meters thickness on either side of the best-fitting fault surface. We use an equivalency class algorithm to identity clusters of repeating events, defined as event pairs with median three-component correlation > 0.97 across common stations (Aster & Scott, 1993). Repeating events occur as doublets of only two events in over 50% of cases; overall, 41% of earthquakes recorded occur as repeating events. The recurrence intervals for the repeating events range from minutes to days, with common recurrence intervals of less than two minutes. While clusters occur in tight dimensions, commonly of 80 m x 200 m, aftershocks occur in 3 distinct ~2km x 2km-sized patches along the fault. Our analysis suggests that with rapidly deployed local arrays, the plethora of ~Mw 4 earthquakes occurring in Oklahoma and Southern Kansas can be used to investigate the earthquake rupture process and the role of damage zones.
The Alaska earthquake, March 27, 1964: lessons and conclusions
Eckel, Edwin B.
1970-01-01
One of the greatest earthquakes of all time struck south-central Alaska on March 27, 1964. Strong motion lasted longer than for most recorded earthquakes, and more land surface was dislocated, vertically and horizontally, than by any known previous temblor. Never before were so many effects on earth processes and on the works of man available for study by scientists and engineers over so great an area. The seismic vibrations, which directly or indirectly caused most of the damage, were but surface manifestations of a great geologic event-the dislocation of a huge segment of the crust along a deeply buried fault whose nature and even exact location are still subjects for speculation. Not only was the land surface tilted by the great tectonic event beneath it, with resultant seismic sea waves that traversed the entire Pacific, but an enormous mass of land and sea floor moved several tens of feet horizontally toward the Gulf of Alaska. Downslope mass movements of rock, earth, and snow were initiated. Subaqueous slides along lake shores and seacoasts, near-horizontal movements of mobilized soil (“landspreading”), and giant translatory slides in sensitive clay did the most damage and provided the most new knowledge as to the origin, mechanics, and possible means of control or avoidance of such movements. The slopes of most of the deltas that slid in 1964, and that produced destructive local waves, are still as steep or steeper than they were before the earthquake and hence would be unstable or metastable in the event of another great earthquake. Rockslide avalanches provided new evidence that such masses may travel on cushions of compressed air, but a widely held theory that glaciers surge after an earthquake has not been substantiated. Innumerable ground fissures, many of them marked by copious emissions of water, caused much damage in towns and along transportation routes. Vibration also consolidated loose granular materials. In some coastal areas, local
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rogozea, Maria; Radulian, Mircea; Placinta, Anica; Toma-Danila, Dragos
2017-04-01
A pair of moderate earthquakes of similar magnitude (Mw = 5.6) occurred in the Vrancea seismic source, a well-defined seismicity nest located in the mantle, beneath the South-Eastern Carpathians Arc in Romania. The two events are separated in time by two months (September 23, 2016 at 23:11:20 GMT and December 27, 2016 at 23:20:55 GMT). They are located close each other (45.7140N, 26.6180E, h = 92 km, and 45.7090N, 26.6030E, h = 99 km, respectively) and could be considered as belonging to an earthquake doublet. Similar doublets generated in the same depth range were recorded in 01 August 1985 (Mw = 5.2 and 5.8) and in 30-31 May 1990 (Mw = 6.9 and 6.4). The main purpose of this paper is to investigate comparatively the macroseismic effects associated to the earthquake doublet of 2016 and to analyze possible correlations with source characteristics, acceleration distribution and focal mechanism. Macroseismic information is collected using the on-line questionnaires from the website of the National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP) and of the European Mediterranean Seismological Center (EMSC). The two earthquakes were felt over an extended area covering most of the Romania, north of Bulgaria, Republic of Moldova and south of Ukraine. We estimate the maximum observed intensity at V (MSK-64 scale). Although the two events have similar locations, time of occurrence and focal mechanism, significant differences were reported in the way that they were felt: on September 2017 the effects were stronger toward NE (Moldova) and SE (Dobrogea), while on December 2017 they were stronger toward NW (Transylvania) and SW (Romanian Plain). Possible source effects (complexity, rupture size) are investigated in this respect.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Donovan, Neville
1979-01-01
Provides a survey and a review of earthquake activity and global tectonics from the advancement of the theory of continental drift to the present. Topics include: an identification of the major seismic regions of the earth, seismic measurement techniques, seismic design criteria for buildings, and the prediction of earthquakes. (BT)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gutscher, M.-A.
2006-05-01
Great earthquakes and tsunami can have a tremendous societal impact. The Lisbon earthquake and tsunami of 1755 caused tens of thousands of deaths in Portugal, Spain and NW Morocco. Felt as far as Hamburg and the Azores islands, its magnitude is estimated to be 8.5 9. However, because of the complex tectonics in Southern Iberia, the fault that produced the earthquake has not yet been clearly identified. Recently acquired data from the Gulf of Cadiz area (tomography, seismic profiles, high-resolution bathymetry, sampled active mud volcanoes) provide strong evidence for an active east dipping subduction zone beneath Gibraltar. Eleven out of 12 of the strongest earthquakes (M>8.5) of the past 100 years occurred along subduction zone megathrusts (including the December 2004 and March 2005 Sumatra earthquakes). Thus, it appears likely that the 1755 earthquake and tsunami were generated in a similar fashion, along the shallow east-dipping subduction fault plane. This implies that the Cadiz subduction zone is locked (like the Cascadia and Nankai/Japan subduction zones), with great earthquakes occurring over long return periods. Indeed, the regional paleoseismic record (contained in deep-water turbidites and shallow lagoon deposits) suggests great earthquakes off South West Iberia every 1500 2000 years. Tsunami deposits indicate an earlier great earthquake struck SW Iberia around 200 BC, as noted by Roman records from Cadiz. A written record of even older events may also exist. According to Plato's dialogues The Critias and The Timaeus, Atlantis was destroyed by ‘strong earthquakes and floods … in a single day and night’ at a date given as 11,600 BP. A 1 m thick turbidite deposit, containing coarse grained sediments from underwater avalanches, has been dated at 12,000 BP and may correspond to the destructive earthquake and tsunami described by Plato. The effects on a paleo-island (Spartel) in the straits of Gibraltar would have been devastating, if inhabited, and may
To, A.; Burgmann, R.; Pollitz, F.
2004-01-01
The 2001 Mw 7.6 Bhuj earthquake occurred in an intraplate region with rather unusual active seismicity, including an earlier major earthquake, the 1819 Rann of Kachchh earthquake (M7.7). We examine if static coseismic and transient postseismic deformation following the 1819 earthquake contributed to the enhanced seismicity in the region and the occurrence of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake, ???100 km away and almost two centuries later. Based on the Indian shield setting, great rupture depth of the 2001 event and lack of significant early postseismic deformation measured following the 2001 event, we infer that little viscous relaxation occurs in the lower crust and choose an upper mantle effective viscosity of 1019 Pas. The predicted Coulomb failure stress (DCFS) on the rupture plane of the 2001 event increased by more than 0.1 bar at 20 km depth, which is a small but possibly significant amount. Stress change from the 1819 event may have also affected the occurrence of other historic earthquakes in this region. We also evaluate the postseismic deformation and ??CFS in this region due to the 2001 event. Positive ??CFS from the 2001 event occur to the NW and SE of the Bhuj earthquake rupture. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.
Person, W.J.
1981-01-01
The months of May and June were somewhat quiet, seismically speaking. There was one major earthquake (7.0-7.9) off the west coast of South Island, New Zealand. The most destructive earthquake during this reporting period was in southern Iran on June 11 which caused fatalities and extensive damage. Peru also experienced a destructive earthquake on June 22 which caused fatalities and damage. In the United States, a number of earthquakes were experienced, but none caused significant damage.
Pollitz, Fred
2012-01-01
Synthetic seismicity simulations have been explored by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Earthquake Simulators Group in order to guide long‐term forecasting efforts related to the Unified California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (Tullis et al., 2012a). In this study I describe the viscoelastic earthquake simulator (ViscoSim) of Pollitz, 2009. Recapitulating to a large extent material previously presented by Pollitz (2009, 2011) I describe its implementation of synthetic ruptures and how it differs from other simulators being used by the group.
Nucleation and triggering of earthquake slip: effect of periodic stresses
Dieterich, J.H.
1987-01-01
Results of stability analyses for spring and slider systems, with state variable constitutive properties, are applied to slip on embedded fault patches. Unstable slip may nucleate only if the slipping patch exceeds some minimum size. Subsequent to the onset of instability the earthquake slip may propagate well beyond the patch. It is proposed that the seismicity of a volume of the earth's crust is determined by the distribution of initial conditions on the population of fault patches that nucleate earthquake slip, and the loading history acting upon the volume. Patches with constitutive properties inferred from laboratory experiments are characterized by an interval of self-driven accelerating slip prior to instability, if initial stress exceeds a minimum threshold. This delayed instability of the patches provides an explanation for the occurrence of aftershocks and foreshocks including decay of earthquake rates by time-1. A population of patches subjected to loading with a periodic component results in periodic variation of the rate of occurrence of instabilities. The change of the rate of seismicity for a sinusoidal load is proportional to the amplitude of the periodic stress component and inversely proportional to both the normal stress acting on the fault patches and the constitutive parameter, A1, that controls the direct velocity dependence of fault slip. Values of A1 representative of laboratory experiments indicate that in a homogeneous crust, correlation of earthquake rates with earth tides should not be detectable at normal stresses in excess of about 8 MPa. Correlation of earthquakes with tides at higher normal stresses can be explained if there exist inhomogeneities that locally amplify the magnitude of the tidal stresses. Such amplification might occur near magma chambers or other soft inclusions in the crust and possibly near the ends of creeping fault segments if the creep or afterslip rates vary in response to tides. Observations of seismicity rate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Martín-González, Fidel
2018-01-01
Studies to provide information concerning seismic parameters and seismic sources of historical and archaeological seismic events are used to better evaluate the seismic hazard of a region. This is of especial interest when no surface rupture is recorded or the seismogenic fault cannot be identified. The orientation pattern of the earthquake damage (ED) (e.g., fallen columns, dropped key stones) that affected architectonic elements of cities after earthquakes has been traditionally used in historical and archaeoseismological studies to infer seismic parameters. However, in the literature depending on the authors, the parameters that can be obtained are contradictory (it has been proposed: the epicenter location, the orientation of the P-waves, the orientation of the compressional strain and the fault kinematics) and authors even question these relations with the earthquake damage. The earthquakes of Lorca in 2011, Christchurch in 2011 and Emilia Romagna in 2012 present an opportunity to measure systematically a large number and wide variety of earthquake damage in historical buildings (the same structures that are used in historical and archaeological studies). The damage pattern orientation has been compared with modern instrumental data, which is not possible in historical and archaeoseismological studies. From measurements and quantification of the orientation patterns in the studied earthquakes, it is observed that there is a systematic pattern of the earthquake damage orientation (EDO) in the proximity of the seismic source (fault trace) (<10 km). The EDO in these earthquakes is normal to the fault trend (±15°). This orientation can be generated by a pulse of motion that in the near fault region has a distinguishable acceleration normal to the fault due to the polarization of the S-waves. Therefore, the earthquake damage orientation could be used to estimate the seismogenic fault trend of historical earthquakes studies where no instrumental data are available.
Earthquakes, March-April, 1993
Person, Waverly J.
1993-01-01
Worldwide, only one major earthquake (7.0
2016 National Earthquake Conference
Thank you to our Presenting Sponsor, California Earthquake Authority. What's New? What's Next ? What's Your Role in Building a National Strategy? The National Earthquake Conference (NEC) is a , state government leaders, social science practitioners, U.S. State and Territorial Earthquake Managers
The music of earthquakes and Earthquake Quartet #1
Michael, Andrew J.
2013-01-01
Earthquake Quartet #1, my composition for voice, trombone, cello, and seismograms, is the intersection of listening to earthquakes as a seismologist and performing music as a trombonist. Along the way, I realized there is a close relationship between what I do as a scientist and what I do as a musician. A musician controls the source of the sound and the path it travels through their instrument in order to make sound waves that we hear as music. An earthquake is the source of waves that travel along a path through the earth until reaching us as shaking. It is almost as if the earth is a musician and people, including seismologists, are metaphorically listening and trying to understand what the music means.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McCormack, K. A.; Hesse, M.
2016-12-01
Remote sensing and geodetic measurements are providing a new wealth of spatially distributed, time-series data that have the ability to improve our understanding of co-seismic rupture and post-seismic processes in subduction zones. Following a large earthquake, large-scale deformation is influenced by a myriad of post-seismic processes occurring on different spatial and temporal scales. These include continued slip on the fault plane (after-slip), a poroelastic response due to the movement of over-pressurized groundwater and viscoelastic relaxation of the underlying mantle. Often, the only means of observing these phenomena are through surface deformation measurements - either GPS or InSAR. Such tools measure the combined result of all these processes, which makes studying the effects of any single process difficult. For the 2012 Mw 7.6 Costa Rica Earthquake, we formulate a Bayesian inverse problem to infer the slip distribution on the plate interface using an elastic finite element model and GPS surface deformation measurements. From this study we identify a horseshoe-shaped rupture area surrounding a locked patch that is likely to release stress in the future. The results of our inversion are then used as an initial condition in a coupled poroelastic forward model to investigate the role of poroelastic effects on post-seismic deformation and stress transfer. We model the co-seismic pore pressure change as well as the pressure evolution and resulting deformation in the months after the earthquake. The surface permeability field is constrained by pump-test data from 526 groundwater wells throughout the study area. The results of the forward model indicate that earthquake-induced pore pressure changes dissipate quickly in most areas near the surface, resulting in relaxation of the surface in the seven to twenty days following the earthquake. Near the subducting slab interface, pore pressure changes can be an order of magnitude larger and may persist for many months
Earthquake triggering in southeast Africa following the 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Neves, Miguel; Custódio, Susana; Peng, Zhigang; Ayorinde, Adebayo
2018-02-01
In this paper we present evidence of earthquake dynamic triggering in southeast Africa. We analysed seismic waveforms recorded at 53 broad-band and short-period stations in order to identify possible increases in the rate of microearthquakes and tremor due to the passage of teleseismic waves generated by the Mw8.6 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake. We found evidence of triggered local earthquakes and no evidence of triggered tremor in the region. We assessed the statistical significance of the increase in the number of local earthquakes using β-statistics. Statistically significant dynamic triggering of local earthquakes was observed at 7 out of the 53 analysed stations. Two of these stations are located in the northeast coast of Madagascar and the other five stations are located in the Kaapvaal Craton, southern Africa. We found no evidence of dynamically triggered seismic activity in stations located near the structures of the East African Rift System. Hydrothermal activity exists close to the stations that recorded dynamic triggering, however, it also exists near the East African Rift System structures where no triggering was observed. Our results suggest that factors other than solely tectonic regime and geothermalism are needed to explain the mechanisms that underlie earthquake triggering.
Toward real-time regional earthquake simulation of Taiwan earthquakes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lee, S.; Liu, Q.; Tromp, J.; Komatitsch, D.; Liang, W.; Huang, B.
2013-12-01
We developed a Real-time Online earthquake Simulation system (ROS) to simulate regional earthquakes in Taiwan. The ROS uses a centroid moment tensor solution of seismic events from a Real-time Moment Tensor monitoring system (RMT), which provides all the point source parameters including the event origin time, hypocentral location, moment magnitude and focal mechanism within 2 minutes after the occurrence of an earthquake. Then, all of the source parameters are automatically forwarded to the ROS to perform an earthquake simulation, which is based on a spectral-element method (SEM). We have improved SEM mesh quality by introducing a thin high-resolution mesh layer near the surface to accommodate steep and rapidly varying topography. The mesh for the shallow sedimentary basin is adjusted to reflect its complex geometry and sharp lateral velocity contrasts. The grid resolution at the surface is about 545 m, which is sufficient to resolve topography and tomography data for simulations accurate up to 1.0 Hz. The ROS is also an infrastructural service, making online earthquake simulation feasible. Users can conduct their own earthquake simulation by providing a set of source parameters through the ROS webpage. For visualization, a ShakeMovie and ShakeMap are produced during the simulation. The time needed for one event is roughly 3 minutes for a 70 sec ground motion simulation. The ROS is operated online at the Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica (http://ros.earth.sinica.edu.tw/). Our long-term goal for the ROS system is to contribute to public earth science outreach and to realize seismic ground motion prediction in real-time.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tarr, A.; Benz, H.; Earle, P.; Wald, D. J.
2003-12-01
Earthquake Summary Posters (ESP's), a new product of the U.S. Geological Survey's Earthquake Program, are produced at the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) in Golden. The posters consist of rapidly-generated, GIS-based maps made following significant earthquakes worldwide (typically M>7.0, or events of significant media/public interest). ESP's consolidate, in an attractive map format, a large-scale epicentral map, several auxiliary regional overviews (showing tectonic and geographical setting, seismic history, seismic hazard, and earthquake effects), depth sections (as appropriate), a table of regional earthquakes, and a summary of the reional seismic history and tectonics. The immediate availability of the latter text summaries has been facilitated by the availability of Rapid, Accurate Tectonic Summaries (RATS) produced at NEIC and posted on the web following significant events. The rapid production of ESP's has been facilitated by generating, during the past two years, regional templates for tectonic areas around the world by organizing the necessary spatially-referenced data for the map base and the thematic layers that overlay the base. These GIS databases enable scripted Arc Macro Language (AML) production of routine elements of the maps (for example background seismicity, tectonic features, and probabilistic hazard maps). However, other elements of the maps are earthquake-specific and are produced manually to reflect new data, earthquake effects, and special characteristics. By the end of this year, approximately 85% of the Earth's seismic zones will be covered for generating future ESP's. During the past year, 13 posters were completed, comparable to the yearly average expected for significant earthquakes. Each year, all ESPs will be published on a CD in PDF format as an Open-File Report. In addition, each is linked to the special event earthquake pages on the USGS Earthquake Program web site (http://earthquake.usgs.gov). Although three formats
Geophysical Anomalies and Earthquake Prediction
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jackson, D. D.
2008-12-01
Finding anomalies is easy. Predicting earthquakes convincingly from such anomalies is far from easy. Why? Why have so many beautiful geophysical abnormalities not led to successful prediction strategies? What is earthquake prediction? By my definition it is convincing information that an earthquake of specified size is temporarily much more likely than usual in a specific region for a specified time interval. We know a lot about normal earthquake behavior, including locations where earthquake rates are higher than elsewhere, with estimable rates and size distributions. We know that earthquakes have power law size distributions over large areas, that they cluster in time and space, and that aftershocks follow with power-law dependence on time. These relationships justify prudent protective measures and scientific investigation. Earthquake prediction would justify exceptional temporary measures well beyond those normal prudent actions. Convincing earthquake prediction would result from methods that have demonstrated many successes with few false alarms. Predicting earthquakes convincingly is difficult for several profound reasons. First, earthquakes start in tiny volumes at inaccessible depth. The power law size dependence means that tiny unobservable ones are frequent almost everywhere and occasionally grow to larger size. Thus prediction of important earthquakes is not about nucleation, but about identifying the conditions for growth. Second, earthquakes are complex. They derive their energy from stress, which is perniciously hard to estimate or model because it is nearly singular at the margins of cracks and faults. Physical properties vary from place to place, so the preparatory processes certainly vary as well. Thus establishing the needed track record for validation is very difficult, especially for large events with immense interval times in any one location. Third, the anomalies are generally complex as well. Electromagnetic anomalies in particular require
Historical earthquake research in Austria
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hammerl, Christa
2017-12-01
Austria has a moderate seismicity, and on average the population feels 40 earthquakes per year or approximately three earthquakes per month. A severe earthquake with light building damage is expected roughly every 2 to 3 years in Austria. Severe damage to buildings ( I 0 > 8° EMS) occurs significantly less frequently, the average period of recurrence is about 75 years. For this reason the historical earthquake research has been of special importance in Austria. The interest in historical earthquakes in the past in the Austro-Hungarian Empire is outlined, beginning with an initiative of the Austrian Academy of Sciences and the development of historical earthquake research as an independent research field after the 1978 "Zwentendorf plebiscite" on whether the nuclear power plant will start up. The applied methods are introduced briefly along with the most important studies and last but not least as an example of a recently carried out case study, one of the strongest past earthquakes in Austria, the earthquake of 17 July 1670, is presented. The research into historical earthquakes in Austria concentrates on seismic events of the pre-instrumental period. The investigations are not only of historical interest, but also contribute to the completeness and correctness of the Austrian earthquake catalogue, which is the basis for seismic hazard analysis and as such benefits the public, communities, civil engineers, architects, civil protection, and many others.
Unraveling earthquake stresses: Insights from dynamically triggered and induced earthquakes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Velasco, A. A.; Alfaro-Diaz, R. A.
2017-12-01
Induced seismicity, earthquakes caused by anthropogenic activity, has more than doubled in the last several years resulting from practices related to oil and gas production. Furthermore, large earthquakes have been shown to promote the triggering of other events within two fault lengths (static triggering), due to static stresses caused by physical movement along the fault, and also remotely from the passage of seismic waves (dynamic triggering). Thus, in order to understand the mechanisms for earthquake failure, we investigate regions where natural, induced, and dynamically triggered events occur, and specifically target Oklahoma. We first analyze data from EarthScope's USArray Transportable Array (TA) and local seismic networks implementing an optimized (STA/LTA) detector in order to develop local detection and earthquake catalogs. After we identify triggered events through statistical analysis, and perform a stress analysis to gain insight on the stress-states leading to triggered earthquake failure. We use our observations to determine the role of different transient stresses in contributing to natural and induced seismicity by comparing these stresses to regional stress orientation. We also delineate critically stressed regions of triggered seismicity that may indicate areas susceptible to earthquake hazards associated with sustained fluid injection in provinces of induced seismicity. Anthropogenic injection and extraction activity can alter the stress state and fluid flow within production basins. By analyzing the stress release of these ancient faults caused by dynamic stresses, we may be able to determine if fluids are solely responsible for increased seismic activity in induced regions.
Estimating annualized earthquake losses for the conterminous United States
Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Bausch, Douglas; Chen, Rui; Bouabid, Jawhar; Seligson, Hope
2015-01-01
We make use of the most recent National Seismic Hazard Maps (the years 2008 and 2014 cycles), updated census data on population, and economic exposure estimates of general building stock to quantify annualized earthquake loss (AEL) for the conterminous United States. The AEL analyses were performed using the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Hazus software, which facilitated a systematic comparison of the influence of the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Maps in terms of annualized loss estimates in different parts of the country. The losses from an individual earthquake could easily exceed many tens of billions of dollars, and the long-term averaged value of losses from all earthquakes within the conterminous U.S. has been estimated to be a few billion dollars per year. This study estimated nationwide losses to be approximately $4.5 billion per year (in 2012$), roughly 80% of which can be attributed to the States of California, Oregon and Washington. We document the change in estimated AELs arising solely from the change in the assumed hazard map. The change from the 2008 map to the 2014 map results in a 10 to 20% reduction in AELs for the highly seismic States of the Western United States, whereas the reduction is even more significant for Central and Eastern United States.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rodil, Iván F.; Jaramillo, Eduardo; Acuña, Emilio; Manzano, Mario; Velasquez, Carlos
2016-02-01
Earthquakes and tsunamis are large physical disturbances frequently striking the coast of Chile with dramatic effects on intertidal habitats. Armouring structures built as societal responses to beach erosion and shoreline retreat are also responsible of coastal squeeze and habitat loss. The ecological implications of interactions between coastal armouring and earthquakes have recently started to be studied for beach ecosystems. How long interactive impacts persist is still unclear because monitoring after disturbance generally extends for a few months. During five years after the Maule earthquake (South Central Chile, February 27th 2010) we monitored the variability in population abundances of the most common crustacean inhabitants of different beach zones (i.e. upper, medium, and lower intertidal) at two armoured (one concrete seawall and one rocky revetment) and one unarmoured sites along the sandy beach of Llico. Beach morphology changed after the earthquake-mediated uplift, restoring upper- and mid-shore armoured levels that were rapidly colonized by typical crustacean species. However, post-earthquake increasing human activities affected the colonization process of sandy beach crustaceans in front of the seawall. Lower-shore crab Emerita analoga was the less affected by armouring structures, and it was the only crustacean species present at the three sites before and after the earthquake. This study shows that field sampling carried out promptly after major disturbances, and monitoring of the affected sites long after the disturbance is gone are effective approaches to increase the knowledge on the interactive effects of large-scale natural phenomena and artificial defences on beach ecology.
a Collaborative Cyberinfrastructure for Earthquake Seismology
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bossu, R.; Roussel, F.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Lefebvre, S.; Steed, R.
2013-12-01
One of the challenges in real time seismology is the prediction of earthquake's impact. It is particularly true for moderate earthquake (around magnitude 6) located close to urbanised areas, where the slightest uncertainty in event location, depth, magnitude estimates, and/or misevaluation of propagation characteristics, site effects and buildings vulnerability can dramatically change impact scenario. The Euro-Med Seismological Centre (EMSC) has developed a cyberinfrastructure to collect observations from eyewitnesses in order to provide in-situ constraints on actual damages. This cyberinfrastructure takes benefit of the natural convergence of earthquake's eyewitnesses on EMSC website (www.emsc-csem.org), the second global earthquake information website within tens of seconds of the occurrence of a felt event. It includes classical crowdsourcing tools such as online questionnaires available in 39 languages, and tools to collect geolocated pics. It also comprises information derived from the real time analysis of the traffic on EMSC website, a method named flashsourcing; In case of a felt earthquake, eyewitnesses reach EMSC website within tens of seconds to find out the cause of the shaking they have just been through. By analysing their geographical origin through their IP address, we automatically detect felt earthquakes and in some cases map the damaged areas through the loss of Internet visitors. We recently implemented a Quake Catcher Network (QCN) server in collaboration with Stanford University and the USGS, to collect ground motion records performed by volunteers and are also involved in a project to detect earthquakes from ground motions sensors from smartphones. Strategies have been developed for several social media (Facebook, Twitter...) not only to distribute earthquake information, but also to engage with the Citizens and optimise data collection. A smartphone application is currently under development. We will present an overview of this
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Szeliga, Walter; Bilham, Roger; Schelling, Daniel; Kakar, Din Mohamed; Lodi, Sarosh
2009-10-01
Surface deformation associated with the 27 August 1931 earthquake near Mach in Baluchistan is quantified from spirit-leveling data and from detailed structural sections of the region interpreted from seismic reflection data constrained by numerous well logs. Mean slip on the west dipping Dezghat/Bannh fault system amounted to 1.2 m on a 42 km × 72 km thrust plane with slip locally attaining 3.2 m up dip of an inferred locking line at ˜9 km depth. Slip also occurred at depths below the interseismic locking line. In contrast, negligible slip occurred in the 4 km near the interseismic locking line. The absence of slip here in the 4 years following the earthquake suggests that elastic energy there must either dissipate slowly in the interseismic cycle, or that a slip deficit remains, pending its release in a large future earthquake. Elastic models of the earthquake cycle in this fold and thrust belt suggest that slip on the frontal thrust fault is reduced by a factor of 2 to 8 compared to that anticipated from convergence of the hinterland, a partitioning process that is presumably responsible for thickening of the fold and thrust belt at the expense of slip on the frontal thrust. Near the latitude of Quetta, GPS measurements indicate that convergence is ˜5 mm/yr. Hence the minimum renewal time between earthquakes with 1.2-m mean displacement should be as little as 240 years. However, when the partitioning of fold belt convergence to frontal thrust slip is taken into account the minimum renewal time may exceed 2000 years.
Harnessing the Collective Power of Eyewitnesses for Improved Earthquake Information
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bossu, R.; Lefebvre, S.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Steed, R.
2013-12-01
The Euro-Med Seismological Centre (EMSC) operates the second global earthquake information website (www.emsc-csem.org) which attracts 2 million visits a month from about 200 different countries. We collect information about earthquakes' effects from eyewitnesses such as online questionnaires, geolocated pics to rapidly constrain impact scenario. At the beginning, the collection was purely intended to address a scientific issue: the rapid evaluation of earthquake's impact. However, it rapidly appears that the understanding of eyewitnesses' expectations and motivations in the immediate aftermath of an earthquake was essential to optimise this data collection. Crowdsourcing information on earthquake's effects does not apply to a pre-existing community. By definition, eyewitnesses only exist once the earthquake has struck. We developed a strategy on social networks (Facebook, Google+, Twitter...) to interface with spontaneously emerging online communities of eyewitnesses. The basic idea is to create a positive feedback loop: attract eyewitnesses and engage with them by providing expected earthquake information and services, collect their observations, collate them for improved earthquake information services to attract more witnesses. We will present recent examples to illustrate how important the use of social networks is to engage with eyewitnesses especially in regions of low seismic activity where people are unaware of existing Internet resources dealing with earthquakes. A second type of information collated in our information services is derived from the real time analysis of the traffic on our website in the first minutes following an earthquake occurrence, an approach named flashsourcing. We show, using the example of the Mineral, Virginia earthquake that the arrival times of eyewitnesses of our website follows the propagation of the generated seismic waves and then, that eyewitnesses can be considered as ground motion sensors. Flashsourcing discriminates felt
Volcanotectonic earthquakes induced by propagating dikes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gudmundsson, Agust
2016-04-01
fractures many of which, when loaded by the dike driving pressure, slip and generate double-couple earthquakes. All types of faulting occur, but strike-slip and reverse faulting are particularly common. Dike-induced faulting is one reason why (mostly small) reverse and strike-slip faults are so commonly observed in palaeorift-zones. Here I present field examples of dike-induced extension fractures and fault slips. I also present numerical and analytical models to explain the effects of mechanical layering and heterogeneity on the likely dike paths and the associated variations in the type and location of the dike-induced earthquakes. Becerril, L., Galindo, I., Gudmundsson, A., Morales, J.M., 2013. Depth of origin of magma in eruptions. Sci. Reports (Nature Publishing), 3, 2762, doi: 10.1038/srep02762. Gudmundsson, A., Lecoeur, N., Mohajeri, N., Thordarson, T., 2014. Dike emplacement at Bardarbunga, Iceland, induces unusual stress changes, caldera deformation, and earthquakes. Bull. Volcanol., 76, 869, doi: 10.1007/s00445-014-0869-8.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ayele, Atalay; Midzi, Vunganai; Ateba, Bekoa; Mulabisana, Thifhelimbilu; Marimira, Kwangwari; Hlatywayo, Dumisani J.; Akpan, Ofonime; Amponsah, Paulina; Georges, Tuluka M.; Durrheim, Ray
2013-04-01
Large magnitude earthquakes have been observed in Sub-Saharan Africa in the recent past, such as the Machaze event of 2006 (Mw, 7.0) in Mozambique and the 2009 Karonga earthquake (Mw 6.2) in Malawi. The December 13, 1910 earthquake (Ms = 7.3) in the Rukwa rift (Tanzania) is the largest of all instrumentally recorded events known to have occurred in East Africa. The overall earthquake hazard in the region is on the lower side compared to other earthquake prone areas in the globe. However, the risk level is high enough for it to receive attention of the African governments and the donor community. The latest earthquake hazard map for the sub-Saharan Africa was done in 1999 and updating is long overdue as several development activities in the construction industry is booming allover sub-Saharan Africa. To this effect, regional seismologists are working together under the GEM (Global Earthquake Model) framework to improve incomplete, inhomogeneous and uncertain catalogues. The working group is also contributing to the UNESCO-IGCP (SIDA) 601 project and assessing all possible sources of data for the catalogue as well as for the seismotectonic characteristics that will help to develop a reasonable hazard model in the region. In the current progress, it is noted that the region is more seismically active than we thought. This demands the coordinated effort of the regional experts to systematically compile all available information for a better output so as to mitigate earthquake risk in the sub-Saharan Africa.
Earthquake triggering by seismic waves following the landers and hector mine earthquakes
Gomberg, J.; Reasenberg, P.A.; Bodin, P.; Harris, R.A.
2001-01-01
The proximity and similarity of the 1992, magnitude 7.3 Landers and 1999, magnitude 7.1 Hector Mine earthquakes in California permit testing of earthquake triggering hypotheses not previously possible. The Hector Mine earthquake confirmed inferences that transient, oscillatory 'dynamic' deformations radiated as seismic waves can trigger seismicity rate increases, as proposed for the Landers earthquake1-6. Here we quantify the spatial and temporal patterns of the seismicity rate changes7. The seismicity rate increase was to the north for the Landers earthquake and primarily to the south for the Hector Mine earthquake. We suggest that rupture directivity results in elevated dynamic deformations north and south of the Landers and Hector Mine faults, respectively, as evident in the asymmetry of the recorded seismic velocity fields. Both dynamic and static stress changes seem important for triggering in the near field with dynamic stress changes dominating at greater distances. Peak seismic velocities recorded for each earthquake suggest the existence of, and place bounds on, dynamic triggering thresholds. These thresholds vary from a few tenths to a few MPa in most places, depend on local conditions, and exceed inferred static thresholds by more than an order of magnitude. At some sites, the onset of triggering was delayed until after the dynamic deformations subsided. Physical mechanisms consistent with all these observations may be similar to those that give rise to liquefaction or cyclic fatigue.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gagan, Michael K.; Sosdian, Sindia M.; Scott-Gagan, Heather; Sieh, Kerry; Hantoro, Wahyoe S.; Natawidjaja, Danny H.; Briggs, Richard W.; Suwargadi, Bambang W.; Rifai, Hamdi
2015-12-01
The recent surge of megathrust earthquakes and tsunami disasters has highlighted the need for a comprehensive understanding of earthquake cycles along convergent plate boundaries. Space geodesy has been used to document recent crustal deformation patterns with unprecedented precision, however the production of long paleogeodetic records of vertical seafloor motion is still a major challenge. Here we show that carbon isotope ratios (δ13C) in the skeletons of massive Porites corals from west Sumatra record abrupt changes in light exposure resulting from coseismic seafloor displacements. Validation of the method is based on the coral δ13C response to uplift (and subsidence) produced by the March 2005 Mw 8.6 Nias-Simeulue earthquake, and uplift further south around Sipora Island during a M ∼ 8.4 megathrust earthquake in February 1797. At Nias, the average step-change in coral δ13C was 0.6 ± 0.1 ‰ /m for coseismic displacements of +1.8 m and -0.4 m in 2005. At Sipora, a distinct change in Porites microatoll growth morphology marks coseismic uplift of 0.7 m in 1797. In this shallow water setting, with a steep light attenuation gradient, the step-change in microatoll δ13C is 2.3 ‰ /m, nearly four times greater than for the Nias Porites. Considering the natural variability in coral skeletal δ13C, we show that the lower detection limit of the method is around 0.2 m of vertical seafloor motion. Analysis of vertical displacement for well-documented earthquakes suggests this sensitivity equates to shallow events exceeding Mw ∼ 7.2 in central megathrust and back-arc thrust fault settings. Our findings indicate that the coral 13C /12C paleogeodesy technique could be applied to convergent tectonic margins throughout the tropical western Pacific and eastern Indian oceans, which host prolific coral reefs, and some of the world's greatest earthquake catastrophes. While our focus here is the link between coral δ13C, light exposure and coseismic crustal deformation, the
Gagan, Michael K.; Sosdian, Sindia M.; Scott-Gagan, Heather; Sieh, Kerry; Hantoro, Wahyoe S.; Natawidjaja, Danny H.; Briggs, Richard W.; Suwargadi, Bambang W.; Rifai, Hamdi
2015-01-01
The recent surge of megathrust earthquakes and tsunami disasters has highlighted the need for a comprehensive understanding of earthquake cycles along convergent plate boundaries. Space geodesy has been used to document recent crustal deformation patterns with unprecedented precision, however the production of long paleogeodetic records of vertical seafloor motion is still a major challenge. Here we show that carbon isotope ratios () in the skeletons of massive Porites corals from west Sumatra record abrupt changes in light exposure resulting from coseismic seafloor displacements. Validation of the method is based on the coral response to uplift (and subsidence) produced by the March 2005 Mw 8.6 Nias–Simeulue earthquake, and uplift further south around Sipora Island during a M∼8.4 megathrust earthquake in February 1797. At Nias, the average step-change in coral was 0.6±0.1‰/m for coseismic displacements of +1.8 m and −0.4 m in 2005. At Sipora, a distinct change in Porites microatoll growth morphology marks coseismic uplift of 0.7 m in 1797. In this shallow water setting, with a steep light attenuation gradient, the step-change in microatoll is2.3‰/m, nearly four times greater than for the Nias Porites . Considering the natural variability in coral skeletal , we show that the lower detection limit of the method is around 0.2 m of vertical seafloor motion. Analysis of vertical displacement for well-documented earthquakes suggests this sensitivity equates to shallow events exceedingMw∼7.2 in central megathrust and back-arc thrust fault settings. Our findings indicate that the coral paleogeodesy technique could be applied to convergent tectonic margins throughout the tropical western Pacific and eastern Indian oceans, which host prolific coral reefs, and some of the world's greatest earthquake catastrophes. While our focus here is the link between coral , light exposure and coseismic crustal deformation, the same principles
Sumatran megathrust earthquakes: from science to saving lives.
Sieh, Kerry
2006-08-15
Most of the loss of life, property and well-being stemming from the great Sumatran earthquake and tsunami of 2004 could have been avoided and losses from similar future events can be largely prevented. However, achieving this goal requires forging a chain linking basic science-the study of why, when and where these events occur-to people's everyday lives. The intermediate links in this chain are emergency response preparedness, warning capability, education and infrastructural changes. In this article, I first describe our research on the Sumatran subduction zone. This research has allowed us to understand the basis of the earthquake cycle on the Sumatran megathrust and to reconstruct the sequence of great earthquakes that have occurred there in historic and prehistoric times. On the basis of our findings, we expect that one or two more great earthquakes and tsunamis, nearly as devastating as the 2004 event, are to be expected within the next few decades in a region of coastal Sumatra to the south of the zone affected in 2004. I go on to argue that preventing future tragedies does not necessarily involve hugely expensive or high-tech solutions such as the construction of coastal defences or sensor-based tsunami warning systems. More valuable and practical steps include extending the scientific research, educating the at-risk populations as to what to do in the event of a long-lasting earthquake (i.e. one that might be followed by a tsunami), taking simple measures to strengthen buildings against shaking, providing adequate escape routes and helping the residents of the vulnerable low-lying coastal strips to relocate their homes and businesses to land that is higher or farther from the coast. Such steps could save hundreds and thousands of lives in the coastal cities and offshore islands of western Sumatra, and have general applicability to strategies for helping the developing nations to deal with natural hazards.
The effect of compliant prisms on subduction zone earthquakes and tsunamis
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lotto, Gabriel C.; Dunham, Eric M.; Jeppson, Tamara N.; Tobin, Harold J.
2017-01-01
Earthquakes generate tsunamis by coseismically deforming the seafloor, and that deformation is largely controlled by the shallow rupture process. Therefore, in order to better understand how earthquakes generate tsunamis, one must consider the material structure and frictional properties of the shallowest part of the subduction zone, where ruptures often encounter compliant sedimentary prisms. Compliant prisms have been associated with enhanced shallow slip, seafloor deformation, and tsunami heights, particularly in the context of tsunami earthquakes. To rigorously quantify the role compliant prisms play in generating tsunamis, we perform a series of numerical simulations that directly couple dynamic rupture on a dipping thrust fault to the elastodynamic response of the Earth and the acoustic response of the ocean. Gravity is included in our simulations in the context of a linearized Eulerian description of the ocean, which allows us to model tsunami generation and propagation, including dispersion and related nonhydrostatic effects. Our simulations span a three-dimensional parameter space of prism size, prism compliance, and sub-prism friction - specifically, the rate-and-state parameter b - a that determines velocity-weakening or velocity-strengthening behavior. We find that compliant prisms generally slow rupture velocity and, for larger prisms, generate tsunamis more efficiently than subduction zones without prisms. In most but not all cases, larger, more compliant prisms cause greater amounts of shallow slip and larger tsunamis. Furthermore, shallow friction is also quite important in determining overall slip; increasing sub-prism b - a enhances slip everywhere along the fault. Counterintuitively, we find that in simulations with large prisms and velocity-strengthening friction at the base of the prism, increasing prism compliance reduces rather than enhances shallow slip and tsunami wave height.
Practical Applications for Earthquake Scenarios Using ShakeMap
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wald, D. J.; Worden, B.; Quitoriano, V.; Goltz, J.
2001-12-01
estimates that will substantially improve over empirical relations at these frequencies will require developing cost-effective numerical tools for proper theoretical inclusion of known complex ground motion effects. Current efforts underway must continue in order to obtain site, basin, and deeper crustal structure, and to characterize and test 3D earth models (including attenuation and nonlinearity). In contrast, longer period synthetics (>2 sec) are currently being generated in a deterministic fashion to include 3D and shallow site effects, an improvement on empirical estimates alone. As progress is made, we will naturally incorporate such advances into the ShakeMap scenario earthquake and processing methodology. Our scenarios are currently used heavily in emergency response planning and loss estimation. Primary users include city, county, state and federal government agencies (e.g., the California Office of Emergency Services, FEMA, the County of Los Angeles) as well as emergency response planners and managers for utilities, businesses, and other large organizations. We have found the scenarios are also of fundamental interest to many in the media and the general community interested in the nature of the ground shaking likely experienced in past earthquakes as well as effects of rupture on known faults in the future.
Multi-instrument observation on co-seismic ionospheric effects after great Tohoku earthquake
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hao, Y. Q.; Xiao, Z.; Zhang, D. H.
2012-02-01
In this paper, evidence of quake-excited infrasonic waves is provided first by a multi-instrument observation of Japan's Tohoku earthquake. The observations of co-seismic infrasonic waves are as follows: 1, effects of surface oscillations are observed by local infrasonic detector, and it seems these effects are due to surface oscillation-excited infrasonic waves instead of direct influence of seismic vibration on the detector; 2, these local excited infrasonic waves propagate upwards and correspond to ionospheric disturbances observed by Doppler shift measurements and GPS/TEC; 3, interactions between electron density variation and currents in the ionosphere caused by infrasonic waves manifest as disturbances in the geomagnetic field observed via surface magnetogram; 4, within 4 hours after this strong earthquake, disturbances in the ionosphere related to arrivals of Rayleigh waves were observed by Doppler shift sounding three times over. Two of the arrivals were from epicenter along the minor arc of the great circle (with the second arrival due to a Rayleigh wave propagating completely around the planet) and the other one from the opposite direction. All of these seismo-ionospheric effects observed by HF Doppler shift appear after local arrivals of surface Rayleigh waves, with a time delay of 8-10 min. This is the time required for infrasonic wave to propagate upwards to the ionosphere.
Toda, S.; Stein, R.S.; Reasenberg, P.A.; Dieterich, J.H.; Yoshida, A.
1998-01-01
The Kobe earthquake struck at the edge of the densely populated Osaka-Kyoto corridor in southwest Japan. We investigate how the earthquake transferred stress to nearby faults, altering their proximity to failure and thus changing earthquake probabilities. We find that relative to the pre-Kobe seismicity, Kobe aftershocks were concentrated in regions of calculated Coulomb stress increase and less common in regions of stress decrease. We quantify this relationship by forming the spatial correlation between the seismicity rate change and the Coulomb stress change. The correlation is significant for stress changes greater than 0.2-1.0 bars (0.02-0.1 MPa), and the nonlinear dependence of seismicity rate change on stress change is compatible with a state- and rate-dependent formulation for earthquake occurrence. We extend this analysis to future mainshocks by resolving the stress changes on major faults within 100 km of Kobe and calculating the change in probability caused by these stress changes. Transient effects of the stress changes are incorporated by the state-dependent constitutive relation, which amplifies the permanent stress changes during the aftershock period. Earthquake probability framed in this manner is highly time-dependent, much more so than is assumed in current practice. Because the probabilities depend on several poorly known parameters of the major faults, we estimate uncertainties of the probabilities by Monte Carlo simulation. This enables us to include uncertainties on the elapsed time since the last earthquake, the repeat time and its variability, and the period of aftershock decay. We estimate that a calculated 3-bar (0.3-MPa) stress increase on the eastern section of the Arima-Takatsuki Tectonic Line (ATTL) near Kyoto causes fivefold increase in the 30-year probability of a subsequent large earthquake near Kyoto; a 2-bar (0.2-MPa) stress decrease on the western section of the ATTL results in a reduction in probability by a factor of 140 to
One year after twin earthquakes in Northwest Iran.
Babaei-Ghazani, Arash; Eftekhar Sadat, Bina
2014-03-01
Every year in most earthquakes more than thousands of lives are lost, mainly in middle- and low-income countries. Disability and rehabilitation in third world countries could cause disastrous negative effect in living expense of families. So many preventable disabilities are result of these earthquakes and we hope reminding it will make a difference.
A new source process for evolving repetitious earthquakes at Ngauruhoe volcano, New Zealand
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jolly, A. D.; Neuberg, J.; Jousset, P.; Sherburn, S.
2012-02-01
Since early 2005, Ngauruhoe volcano has produced repeating low-frequency earthquakes with evolving waveforms and spectral features which become progressively enriched in higher frequency energy during the period 2005 to 2009, with the trend reversing after that time. The earthquakes also show a seasonal cycle since January 2006, with peak numbers of events occurring in the spring and summer period and lower numbers of events at other times. We explain these patterns by the excitation of a shallow two-phase water/gas or water/steam cavity having temporal variations in volume fraction of bubbles. Such variations in two-phase systems are known to produce a large range of acoustic velocities (2-300 m/s) and corresponding changes in impedance contrast. We suggest that an increasing bubble volume fraction is caused by progressive heating of melt water in the resonant cavity system which, in turn, promotes the scattering excitation of higher frequencies, explaining both spectral shift and seasonal dependence. We have conducted a constrained waveform inversion and grid search for moment, position and source geometry for the onset of two example earthquakes occurring 17 and 19 January 2008, a time when events showed a frequency enrichment episode occurring over a period of a few days. The inversion and associated error analysis, in conjunction with an earthquake phase analysis show that the two earthquakes represent an excitation of a single source position and geometry. The observed spectral changes from a stationary earthquake source and geometry suggest that an evolution in both near source resonance and scattering is occurring over periods from days to months.
Site Response for Micro-Zonation from Small Earthquakes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gospe, T. B.; Hutchings, L.; Liou, I. Y. W.; Jarpe, S.
2017-12-01
We have developed a method to obtain absolute geologic site response from small earthquakes using inexpensive instrumentation that enables us to perform micro-zonation inexpensively and in a short amount of time. We record small earthquakes (M<3) at several sites simultaneously and perform inversion to obtain actual absolute site response. The key to the inversion is that recordings at several stations from an earthquake have the same moment, source corner frequency and whole path Q effect on their spectra, but have individual Kappa and spectral amplification as a function of frequency. When these source and path effects are removed and corrections for different propagation distances are performed, we are left with actual site response. We develop site response functions from 0.5 to 25.0 Hz. Cities situated near active and dangerous faults experience small earthquakes on a regular basis. We typically record at least ten small earthquakes over time to stabilize the uncertainly. Of course, dynamic soil modeling is necessary to scale our linear site response to non-linear regime for large earthquakes. Our instrumentation is very inexpensive and virtually disposable, and can be placed throughout a city at a high density. Operation only requires turning on a switch, and data processing is automated to minimize human labor. We have installed a test network and implemented our full methodology in upper Napa Valley, California where there is variable geology and nearby rock outcrop sites, and a supply of small earthquakes from the nearby Geysers development area. We test several methbods of obtaining site response. We found that rock sites have a site response of their own and distort the site response estimate based upon spectral ratios with soil sites. Also, rock sites may not even be available near all sites throughout a city. Further, H/V site response estimates from earthquakes are marginally better, but vertical motion also has a site response of its own. H
Long-term effect of early-life stress from earthquake exposure on working memory in adulthood.
Li, Na; Wang, Yumei; Zhao, Xiaochuan; Gao, Yuanyuan; Song, Mei; Yu, Lulu; Wang, Lan; Li, Ning; Chen, Qianqian; Li, Yunpeng; Cai, Jiajia; Wang, Xueyi
2015-01-01
The present study aimed to investigate the long-term effect of 1976 Tangshan earthquake exposure in early life on performance of working memory in adulthood. A total of 907 study subjects born and raised in Tangshan were enrolled in this study. They were divided into three groups according to the dates of birth: infant exposure (3-12 months, n=274), prenatal exposure (n=269), and no exposure (born at least 1 year after the earthquake, n=364). The prenatal group was further divided into first, second, and third trimester subgroups based on the timing of exposure during pregnancy. Hopkins Verbal Learning Test-Revised and Brief Visuospatial Memory Test-Revised (BVMT-R) were used to measure the performance of working memory. Unconditional logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the influential factors for impaired working memory. The Hopkins Verbal Learning Test-Revised scores did not show significant difference across the three groups. Compared with no exposure group, the BVMT-R scores were slightly lower in the prenatal exposure group and markedly decreased in the infant exposure group. When the BVMT-R scores were analyzed in three subgroups, the results showed that the subjects whose mothers were exposed to earthquake in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy had significantly lower BVMT-R scores compared with those in the first trimester. Education level and early-life earthquake exposure were identified as independent risk factors for reduced performance of visuospatial memory indicated by lower BVMT-R scores. Infant exposure to earthquake-related stress impairs visuospatial memory in adulthood. Fetuses in the middle and late stages of development are more vulnerable to stress-induced damage that consequently results in impaired visuospatial memory. Education and early-life trauma can also influence the performance of working memory in adulthood.
Long-Term Impact of Earthquakes on Sleep Quality
Tempesta, Daniela; Curcio, Giuseppe; De Gennaro, Luigi; Ferrara, Michele
2013-01-01
Purpose We investigated the impact of the 6.3 magnitude 2009 L’Aquila (Italy) earthquake on standardized self-report measures of sleep quality (Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, PSQI) and frequency of disruptive nocturnal behaviours (Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index-Addendum, PSQI-A) two years after the natural disaster. Methods Self-reported sleep quality was assessed in 665 L’Aquila citizens exposed to the earthquake compared with a different sample (n = 754) of L'Aquila citizens tested 24 months before the earthquake. In addition, sleep quality and disruptive nocturnal behaviours (DNB) of people exposed to the traumatic experience were compared with people that in the same period lived in different areas ranging between 40 and 115 km from the earthquake epicenter (n = 3574). Results The comparison between L’Aquila citizens before and after the earthquake showed a significant deterioration of sleep quality after the exposure to the trauma. In addition, two years after the earthquake L'Aquila citizens showed the highest PSQI scores and the highest incidence of DNB compared to subjects living in the surroundings. Interestingly, above-the-threshold PSQI scores were found in the participants living within 70 km from the epicenter, while trauma-related DNBs were found in people living in a range of 40 km. Multiple regressions confirmed that proximity to the epicenter is predictive of sleep disturbances and DNB, also suggesting a possible mediating effect of depression on PSQI scores. Conclusions The psychological effects of an earthquake may be much more pervasive and long-lasting of its building destruction, lasting for years and involving a much larger population. A reduced sleep quality and an increased frequency of DNB after two years may be a risk factor for the development of depression and posttraumatic stress disorder. PMID:23418478
Long-term impact of earthquakes on sleep quality.
Tempesta, Daniela; Curcio, Giuseppe; De Gennaro, Luigi; Ferrara, Michele
2013-01-01
We investigated the impact of the 6.3 magnitude 2009 L'Aquila (Italy) earthquake on standardized self-report measures of sleep quality (Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, PSQI) and frequency of disruptive nocturnal behaviours (Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index-Addendum, PSQI-A) two years after the natural disaster. Self-reported sleep quality was assessed in 665 L'Aquila citizens exposed to the earthquake compared with a different sample (n = 754) of L'Aquila citizens tested 24 months before the earthquake. In addition, sleep quality and disruptive nocturnal behaviours (DNB) of people exposed to the traumatic experience were compared with people that in the same period lived in different areas ranging between 40 and 115 km from the earthquake epicenter (n = 3574). The comparison between L'Aquila citizens before and after the earthquake showed a significant deterioration of sleep quality after the exposure to the trauma. In addition, two years after the earthquake L'Aquila citizens showed the highest PSQI scores and the highest incidence of DNB compared to subjects living in the surroundings. Interestingly, above-the-threshold PSQI scores were found in the participants living within 70 km from the epicenter, while trauma-related DNBs were found in people living in a range of 40 km. Multiple regressions confirmed that proximity to the epicenter is predictive of sleep disturbances and DNB, also suggesting a possible mediating effect of depression on PSQI scores. The psychological effects of an earthquake may be much more pervasive and long-lasting of its building destruction, lasting for years and involving a much larger population. A reduced sleep quality and an increased frequency of DNB after two years may be a risk factor for the development of depression and posttraumatic stress disorder.
An interdisciplinary approach for earthquake modelling and forecasting
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Han, P.; Zhuang, J.; Hattori, K.; Ogata, Y.
2016-12-01
Earthquake is one of the most serious disasters, which may cause heavy casualties and economic losses. Especially in the past two decades, huge/mega earthquakes have hit many countries. Effective earthquake forecasting (including time, location, and magnitude) becomes extremely important and urgent. To date, various heuristically derived algorithms have been developed for forecasting earthquakes. Generally, they can be classified into two types: catalog-based approaches and non-catalog-based approaches. Thanks to the rapid development of statistical seismology in the past 30 years, now we are able to evaluate the performances of these earthquake forecast approaches quantitatively. Although a certain amount of precursory information is available in both earthquake catalogs and non-catalog observations, the earthquake forecast is still far from satisfactory. In most case, the precursory phenomena were studied individually. An earthquake model that combines self-exciting and mutually exciting elements was developed by Ogata and Utsu from the Hawkes process. The core idea of this combined model is that the status of the event at present is controlled by the event itself (self-exciting) and all the external factors (mutually exciting) in the past. In essence, the conditional intensity function is a time-varying Poisson process with rate λ(t), which is composed of the background rate, the self-exciting term (the information from past seismic events), and the external excitation term (the information from past non-seismic observations). This model shows us a way to integrate the catalog-based forecast and non-catalog-based forecast. Against this background, we are trying to develop a new earthquake forecast model which combines catalog-based and non-catalog-based approaches.
Earthquake Hazard and the Environmental Seismic Intensity (ESI) Scale
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Serva, Leonello; Vittori, Eutizio; Comerci, Valerio; Esposito, Eliana; Guerrieri, Luca; Michetti, Alessandro Maria; Mohammadioun, Bagher; Mohammadioun, Georgianna C.; Porfido, Sabina; Tatevossian, Ruben E.
2016-05-01
The main objective of this paper was to introduce the Environmental Seismic Intensity scale (ESI), a new scale developed and tested by an interdisciplinary group of scientists (geologists, geophysicists and seismologists) in the frame of the International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA) activities, to the widest community of earth scientists and engineers dealing with seismic hazard assessment. This scale defines earthquake intensity by taking into consideration the occurrence, size and areal distribution of earthquake environmental effects (EEE), including surface faulting, tectonic uplift and subsidence, landslides, rock falls, liquefaction, ground collapse and tsunami waves. Indeed, EEEs can significantly improve the evaluation of seismic intensity, which still remains a critical parameter for a realistic seismic hazard assessment, allowing to compare historical and modern earthquakes. Moreover, as shown by recent moderate to large earthquakes, geological effects often cause severe damage"; therefore, their consideration in the earthquake risk scenario is crucial for all stakeholders, especially urban planners, geotechnical and structural engineers, hazard analysts, civil protection agencies and insurance companies. The paper describes background and construction principles of the scale and presents some case studies in different continents and tectonic settings to illustrate its relevant benefits. ESI is normally used together with traditional intensity scales, which, unfortunately, tend to saturate in the highest degrees. In this case and in unpopulated areas, ESI offers a unique way for assessing a reliable earthquake intensity. Finally, yet importantly, the ESI scale also provides a very convenient guideline for the survey of EEEs in earthquake-stricken areas, ensuring they are catalogued in a complete and homogeneous manner.
Earthquake Catalogue of the Caucasus
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Godoladze, T.; Gok, R.; Tvaradze, N.; Tumanova, N.; Gunia, I.; Onur, T.
2016-12-01
The Caucasus has a documented historical catalog stretching back to the beginning of the Christian era. Most of the largest historical earthquakes prior to the 19th century are assumed to have occurred on active faults of the Greater Caucasus. Important earthquakes include the Samtskhe earthquake of 1283 (Ms˜7.0, Io=9); Lechkhumi-Svaneti earthquake of 1350 (Ms˜7.0, Io=9); and the Alaverdi earthquake of 1742 (Ms˜6.8, Io=9). Two significant historical earthquakes that may have occurred within the Javakheti plateau in the Lesser Caucasus are the Tmogvi earthquake of 1088 (Ms˜6.5, Io=9) and the Akhalkalaki earthquake of 1899 (Ms˜6.3, Io =8-9). Large earthquakes that occurred in the Caucasus within the period of instrumental observation are: Gori 1920; Tabatskuri 1940; Chkhalta 1963; Racha earthquake of 1991 (Ms=7.0), is the largest event ever recorded in the region; Barisakho earthquake of 1992 (M=6.5); Spitak earthquake of 1988 (Ms=6.9, 100 km south of Tbilisi), which killed over 50,000 people in Armenia. Recently, permanent broadband stations have been deployed across the region as part of the various national networks (Georgia (˜25 stations), Azerbaijan (˜35 stations), Armenia (˜14 stations)). The data from the last 10 years of observation provides an opportunity to perform modern, fundamental scientific investigations. In order to improve seismic data quality a catalog of all instrumentally recorded earthquakes has been compiled by the IES (Institute of Earth Sciences/NSMC, Ilia State University) in the framework of regional joint project (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, USA) "Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) in the Caucasus. The catalogue consists of more then 80,000 events. First arrivals of each earthquake of Mw>=4.0 have been carefully examined. To reduce calculation errors, we corrected arrivals from the seismic records. We improved locations of the events and recalculate Moment magnitudes in order to obtain unified magnitude
Person, W.J.
1992-01-01
There were two major earthquakes (7.0≤M<8.0) during this reporting period. A magnitude 7.5 earthquake occurred in Kyrgyzstan on August 19 and a magnitude 7.0 quake struck the Ascension Island region on August 28. In southern California, aftershocks of the magnitude 7.6 earthquake on June 28, 1992, continued. One of these aftershocks caused damage and injuries, and at least one other aftershock caused additional damage. Earthquake-related fatalities were reportred in Kyrgzstan and Pakistan.
Earthquakes: Recurrence and Interoccurrence Times
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Abaimov, S. G.; Turcotte, D. L.; Shcherbakov, R.; Rundle, J. B.; Yakovlev, G.; Goltz, C.; Newman, W. I.
2008-04-01
The purpose of this paper is to discuss the statistical distributions of recurrence times of earthquakes. Recurrence times are the time intervals between successive earthquakes at a specified location on a specified fault. Although a number of statistical distributions have been proposed for recurrence times, we argue in favor of the Weibull distribution. The Weibull distribution is the only distribution that has a scale-invariant hazard function. We consider three sets of characteristic earthquakes on the San Andreas fault: (1) The Parkfield earthquakes, (2) the sequence of earthquakes identified by paleoseismic studies at the Wrightwood site, and (3) an example of a sequence of micro-repeating earthquakes at a site near San Juan Bautista. In each case we make a comparison with the applicable Weibull distribution. The number of earthquakes in each of these sequences is too small to make definitive conclusions. To overcome this difficulty we consider a sequence of earthquakes obtained from a one million year “Virtual California” simulation of San Andreas earthquakes. Very good agreement with a Weibull distribution is found. We also obtain recurrence statistics for two other model studies. The first is a modified forest-fire model and the second is a slider-block model. In both cases good agreements with Weibull distributions are obtained. Our conclusion is that the Weibull distribution is the preferred distribution for estimating the risk of future earthquakes on the San Andreas fault and elsewhere.
Effect of the 2015 earthquake on pediatric inpatient pattern at a tertiary care hospital in Nepal.
Giri, Bishnu Rath; Chapagain, Ram Hari; Sharma, Samana; Shrestha, Sandeep; Ghimire, Sunita; Shankar, P Ravi
2018-02-05
Earthquakes impact child health in many ways. Diseases occurring immediately following an earthquake have been studied in field based hospitals but studies on the inpatient disease pattern among children without trauma in a permanent hospital setup is lacking. We examined the diagnoses of all children without trauma, admitted to Kanti Children's Hospital, Kathmandu for fifteen-week duration (from 4th week to end of the 18th week) following the 7.8 magnitude Nepal earthquake on 25th April 2015. The admitted children were grouped based on direct effect of earthquake on their family (house damaged or family member injured or dead) and on whether their place of residence was located in an earthquake affected district. Most common diagnoses were identified and their distribution between the aforementioned groups analyzed to examine differences, if any, in disease occurrence or presentation. The fifteen weeks study duration was divided into three parts of five weeks each, to study trends in illness presentation. Variables were compared among various groups using appropriate statistical tests (p < 0.05). A total of 1057 patients were admitted. The proportion of patients requiring admission for pneumonia, acute gastroenteritis and acute or poststreptococcal glomerulonephritis (AGN/PSGN) was significantly higher among children belonging to earthquake affected districts. Proportion of patients with any infective condition was also significantly higher in this group. Acute gastroenteritis and any infective condition were significantly higher among children from substantially affected families. The proportion of AGN/PSGN among admitted patients increased in successive time categories among patients from affected districts and from substantially affected families. Urinary Tract Infection, bronchiolitis, tuberculosis, pleural effusion, protein energy malnutrition/failure to thrive, nephrotic syndrome, meningitis/meningoencephalitis, epilepsy or seizure disorders, leukemia
Recent damaging earthquakes in Japan, 2003-2008
Kayen, Robert E
2008-01-01
During the last six years, from 2003-2008, Japan has been struck by three significant and damaging earthquakes: The most recent M6.6 Niigata Chuetsu Oki earthquake of July 16, 2007 off the coast of Kashiwazaki City, Japan; The M6.6 Niigata Chuetsu earthquake of October 23, 2004, located in Niigata Prefecture in the central Uonuma Hills; and the M8.0 Tokachi Oki Earthquake of September 26, 2003 effecting southeastern Hokkaido Prefecture. These earthquakes stand out among many in a very active period of seismicity in Japan. Within the upper 100 km of the crust during this period, Japan experienced 472 earthquakes of magnitude 6, or greater. Both Niigata events affected the south-central region of Tohoku Japan, and the Tokachi-Oki earthquake affected a broad region of the continental shelf and slope southeast of the Island of Hokkaido. This report is synthesized from the work of scores of Japanese and US researchers who led and participated in post-earthquake reconnaissance of these earthquakes: their noteworthy and valuable contributions are listed in an extended acknowledgements section at the end of the paper. During the Niigata Chuetsu Oki event of 2007, damage to the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant, structures, infrastructure, and ground were primarily the product of two factors: (1) high intensity motions from this moderate-sized shallow event, and (2) soft, poor performing, or liquefiable soils in the coastal region of southwestern Niigata Prefecture. Structural and geotechnical damage along the slopes of dunes was ubiquitous in the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa region. The 2004 Niigata Chuetsu Earthquake was the most significant to affect Japan since the 1995 Kobe earthquake. Forty people were killed, almost 3,000 were injured, and many hundreds of landslides destroyed entire upland villages. Landslides were of all types; some dammed streams, temporarily creating lakes threatening to overtop their new embankments and cause flash floods and mudslides. The numerous
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Web Applications
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fee, J.; Martinez, E.
2015-12-01
USGS Earthquake web applications provide access to earthquake information from USGS and other Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) contributors. One of the primary goals of these applications is to provide a consistent experience for accessing both near-real time information as soon as it is available and historic information after it is thoroughly reviewed. Millions of people use these applications every month including people who feel an earthquake, emergency responders looking for the latest information about a recent event, and scientists researching historic earthquakes and their effects. Information from multiple catalogs and contributors is combined by the ANSS Comprehensive Catalog into one composite catalog, identifying the most preferred information from any source for each event. A web service and near-real time feeds provide access to all contributed data, and are used by a number of users and software packages. The Latest Earthquakes application displays summaries of many events, either near-real time feeds or custom searches, and the Event Page application shows detailed information for each event. Because all data is accessed through the web service, it can also be downloaded by users. The applications are maintained as open source projects on github, and use mobile-first and responsive-web-design approaches to work well on both mobile devices and desktop computers. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/
Controls on Earthquake Rupture and Triggering Mechanisms in Subduction Zones
2010-06-01
weaken the fault [Wibber- ley and Shimamoto, 2005]. Song and Simons [2003] infer that strongly negative TPGA values correlate with increases in the...and Y. Hu (2006), Accretionary prisms in subduction earthquake cycles: The theory of dynamic Coulomb wedge, J. Geophys. Res., 111, B06410, doi:10.1029...modified Coulomb stress function, γ is a state variable, and A is a fault constitutive parameter. We assume that the normal stress σ remains constant, and
Natural Time and Nowcasting Earthquakes: Are Large Global Earthquakes Temporally Clustered?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Luginbuhl, Molly; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.
2018-02-01
The objective of this paper is to analyze the temporal clustering of large global earthquakes with respect to natural time, or interevent count, as opposed to regular clock time. To do this, we use two techniques: (1) nowcasting, a new method of statistically classifying seismicity and seismic risk, and (2) time series analysis of interevent counts. We chose the sequences of M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and M_{λ } ≥ 8.0 earthquakes from the global centroid moment tensor (CMT) catalog from 2004 to 2016 for analysis. A significant number of these earthquakes will be aftershocks of the largest events, but no satisfactory method of declustering the aftershocks in clock time is available. A major advantage of using natural time is that it eliminates the need for declustering aftershocks. The event count we utilize is the number of small earthquakes that occur between large earthquakes. The small earthquake magnitude is chosen to be as small as possible, such that the catalog is still complete based on the Gutenberg-Richter statistics. For the CMT catalog, starting in 2004, we found the completeness magnitude to be M_{σ } ≥ 5.1. For the nowcasting method, the cumulative probability distribution of these interevent counts is obtained. We quantify the distribution using the exponent, β, of the best fitting Weibull distribution; β = 1 for a random (exponential) distribution. We considered 197 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and found β = 0.83 ± 0.08. We considered 15 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 8.0, but this number was considered too small to generate a meaningful distribution. For comparison, we generated synthetic catalogs of earthquakes that occur randomly with the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude statistics. We considered a synthetic catalog of 1.97 × 10^5 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 earthquakes and found β = 0.99 ± 0.01. The random catalog converted to natural time was also random. We then generated 1.5 × 10^4 synthetic catalogs with 197 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 in each catalog and
Rydberg, Henny; Marrone, Gaetano; Strömdahl, Susanne; von Schreeb, Johan
2015-01-01
Background Research on long-term health effects of earthquakes is scarce, especially in low- and middle-income countries, which are disproportionately affected by disasters. To date, progress in this area has been hampered by the lack of tools to accurately measure these effects. Here, we explored whether long-term public health effects of earthquakes can be assessed using a combination of readily available data sources on public health and geographic distribution of seismic activity. Methods We used childhood stunting as a proxy for public health effects. Data on stunting were attained from Demographic and Health Surveys. Earthquake data were obtained from U.S. Geological Survey’s ShakeMaps, geographic information system-based maps that divide earthquake affected areas into different shaking intensity zones. We combined these two data sources to categorize the surveyed children into different earthquake exposure groups, based on how much their area of residence was affected by the earthquake. We assessed the feasibility of the approach using a real earthquake case – an 8.4 magnitude earthquake that hit southern Peru in 2001. Results and conclusions Our results indicate that the combination of health survey data and disaster data may offer a readily accessible and accurate method for determining the long-term public health consequences of a natural disaster. Our work allowed us to make pre- and post- earthquake comparisons of stunting, an important indicator of the well-being of a society, as well as comparisons between populations with different levels of exposure to the earthquake. Furthermore, the detailed GIS based data provided a precise and objective definition of earthquake exposure. Our approach should be considered in future public health and disaster research exploring the long-term effects of earthquakes and potentially other natural disasters. PMID:26090999
Rydberg, Henny; Marrone, Gaetano; Strömdahl, Susanne; von Schreeb, Johan
2015-01-01
Research on long-term health effects of earthquakes is scarce, especially in low- and middle-income countries, which are disproportionately affected by disasters. To date, progress in this area has been hampered by the lack of tools to accurately measure these effects. Here, we explored whether long-term public health effects of earthquakes can be assessed using a combination of readily available data sources on public health and geographic distribution of seismic activity. We used childhood stunting as a proxy for public health effects. Data on stunting were attained from Demographic and Health Surveys. Earthquake data were obtained from U.S. Geological Survey's ShakeMaps, geographic information system-based maps that divide earthquake affected areas into different shaking intensity zones. We combined these two data sources to categorize the surveyed children into different earthquake exposure groups, based on how much their area of residence was affected by the earthquake. We assessed the feasibility of the approach using a real earthquake case--an 8.4 magnitude earthquake that hit southern Peru in 2001. Our results indicate that the combination of health survey data and disaster data may offer a readily accessible and accurate method for determining the long-term public health consequences of a natural disaster. Our work allowed us to make pre- and post-earthquake comparisons of stunting, an important indicator of the well-being of a society, as well as comparisons between populations with different levels of exposure to the earthquake. Furthermore, the detailed GIS based data provided a precise and objective definition of earthquake exposure. Our approach should be considered in future public health and disaster research exploring the long-term effects of earthquakes and potentially other natural disasters.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McCormack, K. A.; Hesse, M. A.; Stadler, G.
2015-12-01
Remote sensing and geodetic measurements are providing a new wealth of spatially distributed, time-series data that have the ability to improve our understanding of co-seismic rupture and post-seismic processes in subduction zones. We formulate a Bayesian inverse problem to infer the slip distribution on the plate interface using an elastic finite element model and GPS surface deformation measurements. We present an application to the co-seismic displacement during the 2012 earthquake on the Nicoya Peninsula in Costa Rica, which is uniquely positioned close to the Middle America Trench and directly over the seismogenic zone of the plate interface. The results of our inversion are then used as an initial condition in a coupled poroelastic forward model to investigate the role of poroelastic effects on post-seismic deformation and stress transfer. From this study we identify a horseshoe-shaped rupture area with a maximum slip of approximately 2.5 meters surrounding a locked patch that is likely to release stress in the future. We model the co-seismic pore pressure change as well as the pressure evolution and resulting deformation in the months after the earthquake. The results of the forward model indicate that earthquake-induced pore pressure changes dissipate quickly near the surface, resulting in relaxation of the surface in the seven to ten days following the earthquake. Near the subducting slab interface, pore pressure changes are an order of magnitude larger and may persist for many months after the earthquake.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Baytiyeh, Hoda
2015-01-01
Lebanon faces the risk of powerful earthquakes with potentially devastating effects. However, the Lebanese people in general have not yet recognized this risk, as current educational programs and government officials have failed to inform them about it. This article discusses the essential role that Lebanese institutions of higher education should…
Earthquake and Tsunami booklet based on two Indonesia earthquakes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hayashi, Y.; Aci, M.
2014-12-01
Many destructive earthquakes occurred during the last decade in Indonesia. These experiences are very important precepts for the world people who live in earthquake and tsunami countries. We are collecting the testimonies of tsunami survivors to clarify successful evacuation process and to make clear the characteristic physical behaviors of tsunami near coast. We research 2 tsunami events, 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and 2010 Mentawai slow earthquake tsunami. Many video and photographs were taken by people at some places in 2004 Indian ocean tsunami disaster; nevertheless these were few restricted points. We didn't know the tsunami behavior in another place. In this study, we tried to collect extensive information about tsunami behavior not only in many places but also wide time range after the strong shake. In Mentawai case, the earthquake occurred in night, so there are no impressive photos. To collect detail information about evacuation process from tsunamis, we contrived the interview method. This method contains making pictures of tsunami experience from the scene of victims' stories. In 2004 Aceh case, all survivors didn't know tsunami phenomena. Because there were no big earthquakes with tsunami for one hundred years in Sumatra region, public people had no knowledge about tsunami. This situation was highly improved in 2010 Mentawai case. TV programs and NGO or governmental public education programs about tsunami evacuation are widespread in Indonesia. Many people know about fundamental knowledge of earthquake and tsunami disasters. We made drill book based on victim's stories and painted impressive scene of 2 events. We used the drill book in disaster education event in school committee of west Java. About 80 % students and teachers evaluated that the contents of the drill book are useful for correct understanding.
Cisternas, M.; Garrett, E; Wesson, Robert L.; Dura, T.; Ely, L. L
2017-01-01
An uncommon coastal sedimentary record combines evidence for seismic shaking and coincident tsunami inundation since AD 1000 in the region of the largest earthquake recorded instrumentally: the giant 1960 southern Chile earthquake (Mw 9.5). The record reveals significant variability in the size and recurrence of megathrust earthquakes and ensuing tsunamis along this part of the Nazca-South American plate boundary. A 500-m long coastal outcrop on Isla Chiloé, midway along the 1960 rupture, provides continuous exposure of soil horizons buried locally by debris-flow diamicts and extensively by tsunami sand sheets. The diamicts flattened plants that yield geologically precise ages to correlate with well-dated evidence elsewhere. The 1960 event was preceded by three earthquakes that probably resembled it in their effects, in AD 898 - 1128, 1300 - 1398 and 1575, and by five relatively smaller intervening earthquakes. Earthquakes and tsunamis recurred exceptionally often between AD 1300 and 1575. Their average recurrence interval of 85 years only slightly exceeds the time already elapsed since 1960. This inference is of serious concern because no earthquake has been anticipated in the region so soon after the 1960 event, and current plate locking suggests that some segments of the boundary are already capable of producing large earthquakes. This long-term earthquake and tsunami history of one of the world's most seismically active subduction zones provides an example of variable rupture mode, in which earthquake size and recurrence interval vary from one earthquake to the next.
Earthquakes: hydrogeochemical precursors
Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Manga, Michael
2014-01-01
Earthquake prediction is a long-sought goal. Changes in groundwater chemistry before earthquakes in Iceland highlight a potential hydrogeochemical precursor, but such signals must be evaluated in the context of long-term, multiparametric data sets.
Earthquakes, September-October 1993
Person, W.J.
1993-01-01
The fatalities in the United States were caused by two earthquakes in southern Oregon on September 21. These earthquakes, both with magnitude 6.0 and separated in time by about 2 hrs, led to the deaths of two people. One of these deaths was apparently due to a heart attack induced by the earthquake.
Children's Ideas about Earthquakes
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Simsek, Canan Lacin
2007-01-01
Earthquake, a natural disaster, is among the fundamental problems of many countries. If people know how to protect themselves from earthquake and arrange their life styles in compliance with this, damage they will suffer will reduce to that extent. In particular, a good training regarding earthquake to be received in primary schools is considered…
The 1909 Taipei earthquake: implication for seismic hazard in Taipei
Kanamori, Hiroo; Lee, William H.K.; Ma, Kuo-Fong
2012-01-01
The 1909 April 14 Taiwan earthquake caused significant damage in Taipei. Most of the information on this earthquake available until now is from the written reports on its macro-seismic effects and from seismic station bulletins. In view of the importance of this event for assessing the shaking hazard in the present-day Taipei, we collected historical seismograms and station bulletins of this event and investigated them in conjunction with other seismological data. We compared the observed seismograms with those from recent earthquakes in similar tectonic environments to characterize the 1909 earthquake. Despite the inevitably large uncertainties associated with old data, we conclude that the 1909 Taipei earthquake is a relatively deep (50–100 km) intraplate earthquake that occurred within the subducting Philippine Sea Plate beneath Taipei with an estimated M_W of 7 ± 0.3. Some intraplate events elsewhere in the world are enriched in high-frequency energy and the resulting ground motions can be very strong. Thus, despite its relatively large depth and a moderately large magnitude, it would be prudent to review the safety of the existing structures in Taipei against large intraplate earthquakes like the 1909 Taipei earthquake.