Experimental drought induces short-term changes in soil functionality and microbial community structure after fire in a Mediterranean shrubland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinojosa, M. B.; Parra, A.; Laudicina, V. A.; Moreno, J. M.

2014-10-01

Fire is a major ecosystem driver, causing significant changes in soil nutrients and microbial community structure and functionality. Post-fire soil dynamics can vary depending on rainfall patterns, although variations in response to drought are poorly known. This is particularly important in areas with poor soils and limited rainfall, like arid and semiarid ones. Furthermore, climate change projections in many such areas anticipate reduced precipitation and longer drought, together with an increase in fire severity. The effects of experimental drought and fire were studied on soils in a Mediterranean Cistus-Erica shrubland in Central Spain. A replicated (n = 4) field experiment was carried out in which four levels of rainfall pattern were implemented by means of a rain-out shelters and irrigation system. The treatments were: environmental control (natural rainfall), historical control (long-term average rainfall, 2 months drought), moderate drought (25% reduction of historical control, 5 months drought) and severe drought (45% reduction, 7 months drought). After one growing season, the plots were burned with high fire intensity, except a set of unburned plots that served as control. Soils were collected seasonally during one year and variables related to soil nutrient availability and microbial community structure and functionality were studied. Burned soils increased nutrient availability (P, N, K) with respect to unburned ones, but drought reduced such an increase in P, while it further increased N and K. Such changes in available soil nutrients were short-lived. Drought caused a further decrease of enzyme activities, carbon mineralization rate and microbial biomass. Fire decreased the relative abundance of fungi and actinomycetes. However, fire and drought caused a further reduction in fungi, with bacteria becoming relatively more abundant. Arguably, increasing drought and fires due to climate change will likely shift soil recovery after fire.

Wildfire and drought dynamics destabilize carbon stores of fire-suppressed forests

Treesearch

J. Mason Earles; Malcolm P. North; Matthew D. Hurteau

2014-01-01

Widespread fire suppression and thinning have altered the structure and composition of many forests in the western United States, making them more susceptible to the synergy of large-scale drought and fire events. We examine how these changes affect carbon storage and stability compared to historic fire-adapted conditions. We modeled carbon dynamics under possible...

An Evaluation of Historical Fire Occurrence, Drought and the El Niño Southern Oscillation in the Southcentral United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rooney, M.; Stambaugh, M. C.

2016-12-01

Wildfire occurrence in the forested ecosystems of the southcentral United States is driven by conditions of drought. Historically, fire intervals varied temporally and spatially - forced by climate, humans, and environmental conditions. Thus, proxy records are required to assess the relationships between fire occurrence, drought, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Fire scar data from tree-rings are well-suited to assess historical fire regimes in this region, paired with reconstructions of drought and ENSO that have been developed from networks of ring-width chronologies across the United States. This study combines fire-scar data from twelve different sites in the southcentral United States, including two new fire-history reconstructions. Fire data incorporates 665 fires across Eastern Oklahoma and Northern Texas from 1637-2014. These robust reconstructions of post oak (Quercus stellata) evaluate the variability in fire activity and its association to drought and ENSO. Climate-explained growth variance in post-oak chronologies is strong in this region, providing powerful proxy information in the derived chronologies. In general, most fires occur during the La Niña portion of the ENSO cycle. Many severe fires correspond with drought, and results from super-posed epoch analysis suggest a significant relationship between fire event years and drought conditions in the full period of record. Analysis reveals differences in the relationships of fire, drought and ENSO through time, corresponding to changes in human settlement in the region. Understanding the spatial and temporal relationships that exist between fire occurrence, drought, and ENSO aid in quantifying disturbance characteristics and their associations to climate in the forested ecosystems of the southcentral United States.

Fires in Non-drought Conditions in Indonesia: the Role of Increasing Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, K.; Verchot, L. V.; Baethgen, W.; Gutierrez-Velez, V.; Pinedo-Vasquez, M.; Martius, C.

2017-12-01

In Indonesia, drought driven fires occur typically during the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as those of 1997 and 2015 that resulted in months-long hazardous atmospheric pollution levels in Equatorial Asia and record greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless, anomalously active fire seasons have also been observed in non-drought years. In this work, we investigated whether fires are impacted by temperature anomalies and if so, if the responses differ under contrasting precipitation regimes. Our findings show that when the July-October dry-season is anomalously dry, the sensitivity of fires to temperature anomalies is similar regardless of the sign of the anomalies. In contrast, in wet condition, fire risk increases sharply when the dry season is anomalously warm. We also present a characterization of near-term regional climate projections over the next few decades and the implications of continuing global temperature increase in future fire probability in Indonesia.

Abrupt Increases in Amazonian Tree Mortality Due to Drought-Fire Interactions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brando, Paulo Monteiro; Balch, Jennifer K.; Nepstad, Daniel C.; Morton, Douglas C.; Putz, Francis E.; Coe, Michael T.; Silverio, Divino; Macedo, Marcia N.; Davidson, Eric A.; Nobrega, Caroline C.;

Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought-fire interactions.

PubMed

Brando, Paulo Monteiro; Balch, Jennifer K; Nepstad, Daniel C; Morton, Douglas C; Putz, Francis E; Coe, Michael T; Silvério, Divino; Macedo, Marcia N; Davidson, Eric A; Nóbrega, Caroline C; Alencar, Ane; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S

2014-04-29

Interactions between climate and land-use change may drive widespread degradation of Amazonian forests. High-intensity fires associated with extreme weather events could accelerate this degradation by abruptly increasing tree mortality, but this process remains poorly understood. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first field-based evidence of a tipping point in Amazon forests due to altered fire regimes. Based on results of a large-scale, long-term experiment with annual and triennial burn regimes (B1yr and B3yr, respectively) in the Amazon, we found abrupt increases in fire-induced tree mortality (226 and 462%) during a severe drought event, when fuel loads and air temperatures were substantially higher and relative humidity was lower than long-term averages. This threshold mortality response had a cascading effect, causing sharp declines in canopy cover (23 and 31%) and aboveground live biomass (12 and 30%) and favoring widespread invasion by flammable grasses across the forest edge area (80 and 63%), where fires were most intense (e.g., 220 and 820 kW ⋅ m(-1)). During the droughts of 2007 and 2010, regional forest fires burned 12 and 5% of southeastern Amazon forests, respectively, compared with <1% in nondrought years. These results show that a few extreme drought events, coupled with forest fragmentation and anthropogenic ignition sources, are already causing widespread fire-induced tree mortality and forest degradation across southeastern Amazon forests. Future projections of vegetation responses to climate change across drier portions of the Amazon require more than simulation of global climate forcing alone and must also include interactions of extreme weather events, fire, and land-use change.

Post-fire environments are favourable for plant functioning of seeder and resprouter Mediterranean shrubs, even under drought.

PubMed

Parra, Antonio; Moreno, José M

2017-05-01

Understanding how drought affects seeder and resprouter plants during post-fire regeneration is important for the anticipation of Mediterranean vegetation vulnerability in a context of increasing drought and fire caused by climate change. A Mediterranean shrubland was subjected to various drought treatments (including 45% rainfall reduction, 7 months drought yr -1 ), before and after experimental burning, by means of a rainout-shelter system with an irrigation facility. Predawn shoot water potential (Ψ pd ), relative growth rate (RGR), specific leaf area (SLA) and bulk leaf carbon isotopic composition (δ 13 C) were monitored in the main woody species during the first 3 yr after fire. Cistus ladanifer seedlings showed higher Ψ pd , RGR and SLA, and lower δ 13 C, than unburned plants during the first two post-fire years. Seedlings under drought maintained relatively high Ψ pd , but suffered a decrease in Ψ pd and RGR, and an increase in δ 13 C, relative to control treatments. Erica arborea, E. scoparia and Phillyrea angustifolia resprouts had higher Ψ pd and RGR than unburned plants during the first post-fire year. Resprouters were largely unaffected by drought. Overall, despite marked differences between the two functional groups, post-fire environments were favourable for plant functioning of both seeder and resprouter shrubs, even under the most severe drought conditions implemented. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

Modification of the Fosberg fire weather index to include drought

Treesearch

Scott L. Goodrick

2002-01-01

The Fosberg fire weather index is a simple tool for evaluating the potential influence of weather on a wildland fire based on temperature, relative humidity and wind speed. A modification to this index that includes the impact of precipitation is proposed. The Keetch-Byram drought index is used to formulate a 'fuel availability' factor that modifies the...

Does prescribed fire promote resistance to drought in low elevation forests of the Sierra Nevada, California, USA?

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Caprio, Anthony C.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Das, Adrian J.

2016-01-01

Prescribed fire is a primary tool used to restore western forests following more than a century of fire exclusion, reducing fire hazard by removing dead and live fuels (small trees and shrubs).  It is commonly assumed that the reduced forest density following prescribed fire also reduces competition for resources among the remaining trees, so that the remaining trees are more resistant (more likely to survive) in the face of additional stressors, such as drought.  Yet this proposition remains largely untested, so that managers do not have the basic information to evaluate whether prescribed fire may help forests adapt to a future of more frequent and severe drought.During the third year of drought, in 2014, we surveyed 9950 trees in 38 burned and 18 unburned mixed conifer forest plots at low elevation (<2100 m a.s.l.) in Kings Canyon, Sequoia, and Yosemite national parks in California, USA.  Fire had occurred in the burned plots from 6 yr to 28 yr before our survey.  After accounting for differences in individual tree diameter, common conifer species found in the burned plots had significantly reduced probability of mortality compared to unburned plots during the drought.  Stand density (stems ha-1) was significantly lower in burned versus unburned sites, supporting the idea that reduced competition may be responsible for the differential drought mortality response.  At the time of writing, we are not sure if burned stands will maintain lower tree mortality probabilities in the face of the continued, severe drought of 2015.  Future work should aim to better identify drought response mechanisms and how these may vary across other forest types and regions, particularly in other areas experiencing severe drought in the Sierra Nevada and on the Colorado Plateau.

Drought, tree mortality, and wildfire in forests adapted to frequent fire

Treesearch

Scott L Stephens; Brandon M Collins; Christopher J Fettig; Mark A Finney; Chad M Hoffman; Eric E Knapp; Malcolm P North; Hugh Safford; Rebecca B Wayman

2018-01-01

Massive tree mortality has occurred rapidly in frequent-fire-adapted forests of the Sierra Nevada, California. This mortality is a product of acute drought compounded by the long-established removal of a key ecosystem process: frequent, low- to moderate-intensity fire. The recent tree mortality has many implications for the future of these forests and the ecological...

On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe.

PubMed

Turco, Marco; von Hardenberg, Jost; AghaKouchak, Amir; Llasat, Maria Carmen; Provenzale, Antonello; Trigo, Ricardo M

2017-03-06

Summer fires frequently rage across Mediterranean Europe, often intensified by high temperatures and droughts. According to the state-of-the-art regional fire risk projections, in forthcoming decades climate effects are expected to become stronger and possibly overcome fire prevention efforts. However, significant uncertainties exist and the direct effect of climate change in regulating fuel moisture (e.g. warmer conditions increasing fuel dryness) could be counterbalanced by the indirect effects on fuel structure (e.g. warmer conditions limiting fuel amount), affecting the transition between climate-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes as temperatures increase. Here we analyse and model the impact of coincident drought and antecedent wet conditions (proxy for the climatic factor influencing total fuel and fine fuel structure) on the summer Burned Area (BA) across all eco-regions in Mediterranean Europe. This approach allows BA to be linked to the key drivers of fire in the region. We show a statistically significant relationship between fire and same-summer droughts in most regions, while antecedent climate conditions play a relatively minor role, except in few specific eco-regions. The presented models for individual eco-regions provide insights on the impacts of climate variability on BA, and appear to be promising for developing a seasonal forecast system supporting fire management strategies.

Mortality of resprouting chaparral shrubs after a fire and during a record drought: physiological mechanisms and demographic consequences.

PubMed

Pratt, R Brandon; Jacobsen, Anna L; Ramirez, Aaron R; Helms, Anjel M; Traugh, Courtney A; Tobin, Michael F; Heffner, Marcus S; Davis, Stephen D

2014-03-01

We examined postfire regeneration of chaparral shrubs during an intense drought. This study focused on the demography and physiology of shrub species that resprout from a basal lignotuber following fire. We found significant levels of resprout mortality when intense drought occurred in the year following fire during the period of shrub recovery. Three of the seven sampled resprouting species had the greatest or near greatest levels of mortality ever recorded when compared to previous studies. Most shrub mortality occurred during the drought after individuals had resprouted (i.e. individuals survived fire, resprouted and then subsequently died). Physiological measurements of species with high mortality suggested that resprout stems were highly embolized and xylem hydraulic conductivities were close to zero during the peak of the drought. In addition, lignotubers of two of the three species experiencing high mortality were depleted of starch. Population densities of most shrub species declined after the drought compared with their prefire levels, with the exception of one drought tolerant obligate seeding species. Resprouting shrub species may deplete their carbohydrate reserves during the resprouting process, making them particularly vulnerable to drought because of the need to transpire water to acquire the CO2 that is used to supply energy to a large respiring root system. Drought appears to interact with fire by altering postfire shrub recovery and altering species abundances and composition of chaparral communities. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Fire and drought affect plant communities and the greenhouse gas balance in a Mediterranean shrubland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreno, José M.; Parra, Antonio; Dannenmann, Michael; Ramírez, David A.; Diaz-Pines, Eugenio; Tejedor, Javier; Kitzler, Barbara; Karhu, Kristina; Resco, Victor; Povoas, Luciano

2010-05-01

Predicted changes in the seasonality and amount of rainfall under a changing climate have the potential to dramatically alter ecosystem function and species composition. Moreover, in fire-prone ecosystems, the joint effects of fire and increasing aridity may create irreversible changes to the services these ecosystems provide. To understand the effects of increasing drought and fire in a Mediterranean shrubland, we implemented an automated rainfall manipulation system, with rain-out shelters which automatically fold and unfold when conditions are rainy and dry, respectively. In January 2009, we implemented five different treatments, where annual precipitation was reduced by diminishing summer rainfall from the long-term historical average, up to a 40% reduction, following IPCC scenarios. In September 2009, we uninstalled all the shelters to burn the different plots, and reinstalled the shelters immediately afterwards. In this talk, we will present the preliminary results of an integrated experiment which aims at understanding the concomitant effects of fire and different drought intensities on the species composition and greenhouse gas balance (CO2, N2O and CH4) of a Mediterranean shrubland. We observed that plant growth was more severely affected by drought in the more shallow-rooted, malacophyllous shrub (from 116 to -7.2 mg/g/d in Cistus ladanifer), than in a deeper-rooted heather (from 5.5 to 66.9 mg/g/day in Erica arborea). This growth response was mediated by species-specific differences in hydraulics, leaf morphology and photosynthetic gas exchange of each species. Analyses of changes in species composition after fire are currently undergoing. The precipitation reduction treatments exerted drought stress on CH4 oxidizing microorganisms and thus reduced the CH4 sink strength of the ecosystem during the pre-fire period. Furthermore, the net CH4 uptake at the soil-atmosphere interface was reduced by the fire for a period of at least one month. Pedosphere

Major atmospheric emissions from peat fires in Southeast Asia during non-drought years: evidence from the 2013 Sumatran fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaveau, David L. A.; Salim, Mohammad A.; Hergoualc'h, Kristell; Locatelli, Bruno; Sloan, Sean; Wooster, Martin; Marlier, Miriam E.; Molidena, Elis; Yaen, Husna; Defries, Ruth; Verchot, Louis; Murdiyarso, Daniel; Nasi, Robert; Holmgren, Peter; Sheil, Douglas

2014-08-01

Trans-boundary haze events in Southeast Asia are associated with large forest and peatland fires in Indonesia. These episodes of extreme air pollution usually occur during drought years induced by climate anomalies from the Pacific (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and Indian Oceans (Indian Ocean Dipole). However, in June 2013 - a non-drought year - Singapore's 24-hr Pollutants Standards Index reached an all-time record 246 (rated ``very unhealthy''). Here, we show using remote sensing, rainfall records and other data, that the Indonesian fires behind the 2013 haze followed a two-month dry spell in a wetter-than-average year. These fires were short-lived (one week) and limited to a localized area in Central Sumatra (1.6% of Indonesia): burning an estimated 163,336 ha, including 137,044 ha (84%) on peat. Most burning was confined to deforested lands (82%; 133,216 ha). The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during this brief, localized event were considerable: 172 +/- 59 Tg CO2-eq (or 31 +/- 12 Tg C), representing 5-10% of Indonesia's mean annual GHG emissions for 2000-2005. Our observations show that extreme air pollution episodes in Southeast Asia are no longer restricted to drought years. We expect major haze events to be increasingly frequent because of ongoing deforestation of Indonesian peatlands.

Land cover change interacts with drought severity to change fire regimes in Western Amazonia.

PubMed

Gutiérrez-Vélez, Víctor H; Uriarte, María; DeFries, Ruth; Pinedo-Vásquez, Miguel; Fernandes, Katia; Ceccato, Pietro; Baethgen, Walter; Padoch, Christine

Fire is becoming a pervasive driver of environmental change in Amazonia and is expected to intensify, given projected reductions in precipitation and forest cover. Understanding of the influence of post-deforestation land cover change on fires in Amazonia is limited, even though fires in cleared lands constitute a threat for ecosystems, agriculture, and human health. We used MODIS satellite data to map burned areas annually between 2001 and 2010. We then combined these maps with land cover and climate information to understand the influence of land cover change in cleared lands and dry-season severity on fire occurrence and spread in a focus area in the Peruvian Amazon. Fire occurrence, quantified as the probability of burning of individual 232-m spatial resolution MODIS pixels, was modeled as a function of the area of land cover types within each pixel, drought severity, and distance to roads. Fire spread, quantified as the number of pixels burned in 3 × 3 pixel windows around each focal burned pixel, was modeled as a function of land cover configuration and area, dry-season severity, and distance to roads. We found that vegetation regrowth and oil palm expansion are significantly correlated with fire occurrence, but that the magnitude and sign of the correlation depend on drought severity, successional stage of regrowing vegetation, and oil palm age. Burning probability increased with the area of nondegraded pastures, fallow, and young oil palm and decreased with larger extents of degraded pastures, secondary forests, and adult oil palm plantations. Drought severity had the strongest influence on fire occurrence, overriding the effectiveness of secondary forests, but not of adult plantations, to reduce fire occurrence in severely dry years. Overall, irregular and scattered land cover patches reduced fire spread but irregular and dispersed fallows and secondary forests increased fire spread during dry years. Results underscore the importance of land cover

Major atmospheric emissions from peat fires in Southeast Asia during non-drought years: evidence from the 2013 Sumatran fires

PubMed Central

Gaveau, David L. A.; Salim, Mohammad A.; Hergoualc'h, Kristell; Locatelli, Bruno; Sloan, Sean; Wooster, Martin; Marlier, Miriam E.; Molidena, Elis; Yaen, Husna; DeFries, Ruth; Verchot, Louis; Murdiyarso, Daniel; Nasi, Robert; Holmgren, Peter; Sheil, Douglas

2014-01-01

Trans-boundary haze events in Southeast Asia are associated with large forest and peatland fires in Indonesia. These episodes of extreme air pollution usually occur during drought years induced by climate anomalies from the Pacific (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and Indian Oceans (Indian Ocean Dipole). However, in June 2013 – a non-drought year – Singapore's 24-hr Pollutants Standards Index reached an all-time record 246 (rated “very unhealthy”). Here, we show using remote sensing, rainfall records and other data, that the Indonesian fires behind the 2013 haze followed a two-month dry spell in a wetter-than-average year. These fires were short-lived (one week) and limited to a localized area in Central Sumatra (1.6% of Indonesia): burning an estimated 163,336 ha, including 137,044 ha (84%) on peat. Most burning was confined to deforested lands (82%; 133,216 ha). The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during this brief, localized event were considerable: 172 ± 59 Tg CO2-eq (or 31 ± 12 Tg C), representing 5–10% of Indonesia's mean annual GHG emissions for 2000–2005. Our observations show that extreme air pollution episodes in Southeast Asia are no longer restricted to drought years. We expect major haze events to be increasingly frequent because of ongoing deforestation of Indonesian peatlands. PMID:25135165

Major atmospheric emissions from peat fires in Southeast Asia during non-drought years: evidence from the 2013 Sumatran fires.

PubMed

Gaveau, David L A; Salim, Mohammad A; Hergoualc'h, Kristell; Locatelli, Bruno; Sloan, Sean; Wooster, Martin; Marlier, Miriam E; Molidena, Elis; Yaen, Husna; DeFries, Ruth; Verchot, Louis; Murdiyarso, Daniel; Nasi, Robert; Holmgren, Peter; Sheil, Douglas

2014-08-19

Trans-boundary haze events in Southeast Asia are associated with large forest and peatland fires in Indonesia. These episodes of extreme air pollution usually occur during drought years induced by climate anomalies from the Pacific (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and Indian Oceans (Indian Ocean Dipole). However, in June 2013--a non-drought year--Singapore's 24-hr Pollutants Standards Index reached an all-time record 246 (rated "very unhealthy"). Here, we show using remote sensing, rainfall records and other data, that the Indonesian fires behind the 2013 haze followed a two-month dry spell in a wetter-than-average year. These fires were short-lived (one week) and limited to a localized area in Central Sumatra (1.6% of Indonesia): burning an estimated 163,336 ha, including 137,044 ha (84%) on peat. Most burning was confined to deforested lands (82%; 133,216 ha). The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during this brief, localized event were considerable: 172 ± 59 Tg CO2-eq (or 31 ± 12 Tg C), representing 5-10% of Indonesia's mean annual GHG emissions for 2000-2005. Our observations show that extreme air pollution episodes in Southeast Asia are no longer restricted to drought years. We expect major haze events to be increasingly frequent because of ongoing deforestation of Indonesian peatlands.

Experimental validation of finite element model analysis of a steel frame in simulated post-earthquake fire environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ying; Bevans, W. J.; Xiao, Hai; Zhou, Zhi; Chen, Genda

2012-04-01

During or after an earthquake event, building system often experiences large strains due to shaking effects as observed during recent earthquakes, causing permanent inelastic deformation. In addition to the inelastic deformation induced by the earthquake effect, the post-earthquake fires associated with short fuse of electrical systems and leakage of gas devices can further strain the already damaged structures during the earthquakes, potentially leading to a progressive collapse of buildings. Under these harsh environments, measurements on the involved building by various sensors could only provide limited structural health information. Finite element model analysis, on the other hand, if validated by predesigned experiments, can provide detail structural behavior information of the entire structures. In this paper, a temperature dependent nonlinear 3-D finite element model (FEM) of a one-story steel frame is set up by ABAQUS based on the cited material property of steel from EN 1993-1.2 and AISC manuals. The FEM is validated by testing the modeled steel frame in simulated post-earthquake environments. Comparisons between the FEM analysis and the experimental results show that the FEM predicts the structural behavior of the steel frame in post-earthquake fire conditions reasonably. With experimental validations, the FEM analysis of critical structures could be continuously predicted for structures in these harsh environments for a better assistant to fire fighters in their rescue efforts and save fire victims.

Disentangling the contribution of multiple land covers to fire-mediated carbon emissions in Amazonia during the 2010 drought.

PubMed

Anderson, Liana Oighenstein; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Gloor, Manuel; Arai, Egídio; Adami, Marcos; Saatchi, Sassan S; Malhi, Yadvinder; Shimabukuro, Yosio E; Barlow, Jos; Berenguer, Erika; Duarte, Valdete

2015-10-01

In less than 15 years, the Amazon region experienced three major droughts. Links between droughts and fires have been demonstrated for the 1997/1998, 2005, and 2010 droughts. In 2010, emissions of 510 ± 120 Tg C were associated to fire alone in Amazonia. Existing approaches have, however, not yet disentangled the proportional contribution of multiple land cover sources to this total. We develop a novel integration of multisensor and multitemporal satellite-derived data on land cover, active fires, and burned area and an empirical model of fire-induced biomass loss to quantify the extent of burned areas and resulting biomass loss for multiple land covers in Mato Grosso (MT) state, southern Amazonia-the 2010 drought most impacted region. We show that 10.77% (96,855 km 2 ) of MT burned. We estimated a gross carbon emission of 56.21 ± 22.5 Tg C from direct combustion of biomass, with an additional 29.4 ± 10 Tg C committed to be emitted in the following years due to dead wood decay. It is estimated that old-growth forest fires in the whole Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA) have contributed to 14.81 Tg of C (11.75 Tg C to 17.87 Tg C) emissions to the atmosphere during the 2010 fire season, with an affected area of 27,555 km 2 . Total C loss from the 2010 fires in MT state and old-growth forest fires in the BLA represent, respectively, 77% (47% to 107%) and 86% (68.2% to 103%) of Brazil's National Plan on Climate Change annual target for Amazonia C emission reductions from deforestation.

Fire suppression has led to greater drought-sensitivity in dry conifer forests: tree-ring carbon isotope evidence from Central Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voelker, S.; Merschel, A. G.; Meinzer, F. C.; Spies, T. A.; Still, C. J.

2016-12-01

Mortality events of economically and ecologically important conifers have been widespread across Western North America over recent decades. Many of these events have been linked to "global change-type droughts" characterized by greater temperatures and evaporative demand. In parallel, since the early to mid- 20th century, increasing atmospheric [CO2] has been shown to increase the water use efficiency (WUE) of trees worldwide while conifer forests in western North America have become denser after the advent of modern fire suppression efforts. Therefore, competing hypotheses include that conifer forests have experienced 1) less drought stress due to water savings from increased WUE, 2) more drought stress due to increased demand for water in dense forests with greater leaf area index, or 3) unchanging stress because these two factors have cancelled each other out. To provide a test of these hypotheses we used inter-annual latewood carbon isotope discrimination, Δ13C, across a dry mixed-conifer forest landscape of central Oregon in the rain shadow of the Cascade Mountains. The forests are dominated by old-growth ponderosa pines (Pinus ponderosa) and younger and fire-intolerant grand firs (Abies grandis). Dendrochronological dating of tree establishment and fires scars established sharp declines in fire frequency and associated increases in the densities of grand fir since the early 1900s. Δ13C data for ponderosa pine and grand fir spanned 1830-2013 and 1900-2013, respectively. For our analyses these years were split into periods of high fire frequency (1830-1900), moderate fire frequency (1901-1956) and fire-exclusion (1957-2013). Comparisons of Δ13C to reconstructed Palmer Drought Severity Index values for the same years revealed that leaf gas exchange of both species has been more sensitive to drought during the recent fire-exclusion period compared to previous periods when surface fires kept tree densities much lower. Similar research is needed elsewhere to

Post Fire Vegetation Recovery in Greece after the large Drought event of 2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gouveia, Célia M.; Bastos, Ana; DaCamara, Carlos; Trigo, Ricardo

2013-04-01

Fire is a natural factor of Mediterranean ecosystems. However, fire regimes in the European Mediterranean areas have been changing in the last decades, mainly due to land-use changes and climate driven factors possibly associated with climatic warming (e.g. decline of precipitation, increasing temperatures but also higher frequency of heatwaves). In Greece, the fire season of 2007 was particularly devastating, achieving the new all-time record of estimated burnt area (225 734 ha), since 1980. Additionally, we must stress that prior to the summer fire season in 2007, Greece suffered an exceptional drought event. This severe drought had a strong negative impact in vegetation dynamics. Since water availability is a crucial factor in post-fire vegetation recovery, it is desirable to assess the impact that such water-stress conditions had on fire sensitivity and post-fire vegetation recovery. Based on monthly values of NDVI, at the 1km×1km spatial scale, as obtained from the VEGETATION-SPOT5 instrument, from 1999 to 2010, large burnt scars are identified in Greece, during 2007 fire season. Vegetation recovery is then assessed based on a mono parametric regression model originally developed by Gouveia et al. (2010) to identify large burnt scars in Portugal during the 2003 fire season and after applied to 2005 fire season (Bastos et al., 2012). Some large burnt areas are selected and the respective NDVI behaviour is monitored throughout the pre and the post fire period. The vegetation dynamics during the pre-fire period is analysed and related to the extreme climatic events that characterised the considered period. An analysis is made of the dependence of recovery rates on land cover types and fire damage. Finally results are compared to results already obtained for Portugal (Gouveia et al. 2010). This work emphasises the use of a simple methodology, when applied to low resolution satellite imagery in order to monitor vegetation recovery after large fires events over

Historical fire and multidecadal drought as context for piñon - Juniper woodland restoration in western Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shinneman, Douglas J.; Baker, William L.

2009-01-01

Fire is known to structure tree populations, but the role of broad-scale climate variability is less clear. For example, the influence of climatic “teleconnections” (the relationship between oceanic–atmospheric fluctuations and anomalous weather patterns across broad scales) on forest age structure is relatively unexplored. We sampled semiarid piñon–juniper (Pinus edulis–Juniperus osteosperma) woodlands in western Colorado, USA, to test the hypothesis that woodland age structures are shaped by climate, including links to oceanic–atmospheric fluctuations, and by past fires and livestock grazing. Low-severity surface fire was lacking, as fire scars were absent, and did not influence woodland densities, but stand-replacing fires served as long-rotation (>400–600 years), stand-initiating events. Old-growth stands (>300 years old) were found in 75% of plots, consistent with a long fire rotation. Juniper and piñon age structures suggest contrasting responses during the past several centuries to dry and wet episodes linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Juniper density increased slightly during periods of drought, positive (warm) AMO (after ∼10-year lag), and negative (cool) PDO. In contrast, piñon populations may still be recovering from a long, drought-filled period (AD 1620–1820), with pulses of recovery favored during cool AMO, warm PDO, and above-average moisture periods. Analysis of 20th-century tree establishment and instrumental climate data corroborate the long-term relationships between age structure and climate. After Euro–American settlement (AD 1881), livestock grazing reduced understory grasses and forbs, reducing competition with tree seedlings and facilitating climate-induced increases in piñons. Thus tree populations in these woodlands are in flux, affected by drought and wet periods linked to oceanic–atmospheric variability, Euro–American livestock grazing, and long

Estimating live fuel status by drought indices: an approach for assessing local impact of climate change on fire danger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellizzaro, Grazia; Dubrovsky, Martin; Bortolu, Sara; Ventura, Andrea; Arca, Bachisio; Masia, Pierpaolo; Duce, Pierpaolo

2014-05-01

Mediterranean shrubs are an important component of both Mediterranean vegetation communities and understorey vegetation. They also constitute the surface fuels primarily responsible for the ignition and the spread of wildland fires in Mediterranean forests. Although fire spread and behaviour are dependent on several factors, the water content of live fuel plays an important role in determining fire occurrence and spread, especially in the Mediterranean shrubland, where live fuel is often the main component of the available fuel which catches fire. According to projections on future climate, an increase in risk of summer droughts is likely to take place in Southern Europe. More prolonged drought seasons induced by climatic changes are likely to influence general flammability characteristics of fuel, affecting load distribution in vegetation strata, floristic composition, and live and dead fuel ratio. In addition, variations in precipitation and mean temperature could directly affect fuel water status, and consequently flammability, and length of critical periods of high ignition danger for Mediterranean ecosystems. The main aim of this work was to propose a methodology for evaluating possible impacts of future climate change on moisture dynamic and length of fire danger period at local scale. Specific objectives were: i) evaluating performances of meteorological drought indices in describing seasonal pattern of live fuel moisture content (LFMC), and ii) simulating the potential impacts of future climate changes on the duration of fire danger period. Measurements of LFMC seasonal pattern of three Mediterranean shrub species were performed in North Western Sardinia (Italy) for 8 years. Seasonal patterns of LFMC were compared with the Drought Code of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index and the Keetch-Byram Drought Index. Analysis of frequency distribution and cumulative distribution curves were carried out in order to evaluate performance of codes and to identify

Drought, Fire and Insects in Western US Forests: Observations to Improve Regional Land System Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Law, B. E.; Yang, Z.; Berner, L. T.; Hicke, J. A.; Buotte, P.; Hudiburg, T. W.

2015-12-01

Drought, fire and insects are major disturbances in the western US, and conditions are expected to get warmer and drier in the future. We combine multi-scale observations and modeling with CLM4.5 to examine the effects of these disturbances on forests in the western US. We modified the Community Land Model, CLM4.5, to improve simulated drought-related mortality in forests, and prediction of insect outbreaks under future climate conditions. We examined differences in plant traits that represent species variation in sensitivity to drought, and redefined plant groupings in PFTs. Plant traits, including sapwood area: leaf area ratio and stemwood density were strongly correlated with water availability during the ecohydrologic year. Our database of co-located observations of traits for 30 tree species was used to produce parameterization of the model by species groupings according to similar traits. Burn area predicted by the new fire model in CLM4.5 compares well with recent years of GFED data, but has a positive bias compared with Landsat-based MTBS. Biomass mortality over recent decades increased, and was captured well by the model in general, but missed mortality trends of some species. Comparisons with AmeriFlux data showed that the model with dynamic tree mortality only (no species trait improvements) overestimated GPP in dry years compared with flux data at semi-arid sites, and underestimated GPP at more mesic sites that experience dry summers. Simulations with both dynamic tree mortality and species trait parameters improved estimates of GPP by 17-22%; differences between predicted and observed NEE were larger. Future projections show higher productivity from increased atmospheric CO2 and warming that somewhat offsets drought and fire effects over the next few decades. Challenges include representation of hydraulic failure in models, and availability of species trait and carbon/water process data in disturbance- and drought-impacted regions.

Landscape-scale patterns of fire and drought on the high plains, USA

Treesearch

Paulette Ford; Charles Jackson; Matthew Reeves; Benjamin Bird; Dave Turner

2015-01-01

We examine 31 years (1982-2012) of temperature, precipitation and natural wildfire occurrence data for Federal and Tribal lands to determine landscape-scale patterns of drought and fire on the southern and central High Plains of the western United States. The High Plains states of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas and...

Managing Fire Risk During Drought: The Influence of Certification and El Nino on Fire-Driven Forest Conversion for Oil Palm in Southeast Asia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noojipady, Praveen; Morton, Douglas C.; Schroeder, Wilfrid; Carlson, Kimberly M.; Huang, Chengquan; Gibbs, Holly K.; Burns, David; Walker, Nathalie F.; Prince, Stephen D.

2017-01-01

Indonesia and Malaysia have emerged as leading producers of palm oil in the past several decades, expanding production through the conversion of tropical forests to industrial plantations. Efforts to produce "sustainable" palm oil, including certification by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), include guidelines designed to reduce the environmental impact of palm oil production. Fire-driven deforestation is prohibited by law in both countries and a stipulation of RSPO certification, yet the degree of environmental compliance isunclear, especially during El Niño events when drought conditions increase fire risk. Here, we used time series of satellite data to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of fire-driven deforestation on and around oil palm plantations. In Indonesia, fire-driven deforestation accounted for one-quarter of total forest losses on both certified and noncertified plantations. After the first plantations in Indonesia received RSPO certification in 2009,forest loss and fire-driven deforestation declined on certified plantations but did not stop altogether. Oil palm expansion in Malaysia rarely involved fire; only 5 % of forest loss on certified plantations had coincident activefire detections. Interannual variability in fire detections was strongly influenced by El Nino and the timing of certification. Fire activity during the 2002, 2004, and 2006 El Nino events was similar among oil palm plantations in Indonesia that would later become certified, noncertified plantations, and surrounding areas. However, total fire activity was 75% and 66% lower on certified plantations than noncertified plantations during the 2009 and 2015 El Nino events, respectively. The decline in fire activity on certified plantations, including during drought periods, highlights the potential for RSPO certification to safeguard carbon stocks in peatlands and remaining forests in accordance with legislation banning fires. However, aligning certification

Interspecific variation in functional traits of oak seedlings (Quercus ilex, Quercus trojana, Quercus virgiliana) grown under artificial drought and fire conditions.

PubMed

Chiatante, D; Tognetti, R; Scippa, G S; Congiu, T; Baesso, B; Terzaghi, M; Montagnoli, A

2015-07-01

To face summer drought and wildfire in Mediterranean-type ecosystems, plants adopt different strategies that involve considerable rearrangements of biomass allocation and physiological activity. This paper analyses morphological and physiological traits in seedlings of three oak species (Quercus ilex, Quercus trojana and Quercus virgiliana) co-occurring under natural conditions. The aim of this study was to evaluate species-specific characteristics and the response of these oak seedlings to drought stress and fire treatment. Seedlings were kept in a growth chamber that mimicked natural environmental conditions. All three species showed a good degree of tolerance to drought and fire treatments. Differences in specific biomass allocation patterns and physiological traits resulted in phenotypic differences between species. In Q. ilex, drought tolerance depended upon adjustment of the allocation pattern. Q. trojana seedlings undergoing mild to severe drought presented a higher photosystem II (PSII) efficiency than control seedlings. Moreover, Q. trojana showed a very large root system, which corresponded to higher soil area exploitation, and bigger leaf midrib vascular bundles than the other two species. Morphological and physiological performances indicated Q. trojana as the most tolerant to drought and fire. These characteristics contribute to a high recruitment potential of Q. trojana seedlings, which might be the reason for the dominance of this species under natural conditions. Drought increase as a result of climate change is expected to favour Q. trojana, leading to an increase in its spatial distribution.

Separating the influence of temperature, drought, and fire on interannual variability in atmospheric CO2

PubMed Central

Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Wolf, Aaron S; Mu, Mingquan; Doney, Scott C; Morton, Douglas C; Kasibhatla, Prasad S; Miller, John B; Dlugokencky, Edward J; Randerson, James T

2014-01-01

The response of the carbon cycle in prognostic Earth system models (ESMs) contributes significant uncertainty to projections of global climate change. Quantifying contributions of known drivers of interannual variability in the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is important for improving the representation of terrestrial ecosystem processes in these ESMs. Several recent studies have identified the temperature dependence of tropical net ecosystem exchange (NEE) as a primary driver of this variability by analyzing a single, globally averaged time series of CO2 anomalies. Here we examined how the temporal evolution of CO2 in different latitude bands may be used to separate contributions from temperature stress, drought stress, and fire emissions to CO2 variability. We developed atmospheric CO2 patterns from each of these mechanisms during 1997–2011 using an atmospheric transport model. NEE responses to temperature, NEE responses to drought, and fire emissions all contributed significantly to CO2 variability in each latitude band, suggesting that no single mechanism was the dominant driver. We found that the sum of drought and fire contributions to CO2 variability exceeded direct NEE responses to temperature in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Additional sensitivity tests revealed that these contributions are masked by temporal and spatial smoothing of CO2 observations. Accounting for fires, the sensitivity of tropical NEE to temperature stress decreased by 25% to 2.9 ± 0.4 Pg C yr−1 K−1. These results underscore the need for accurate attribution of the drivers of CO2 variability prior to using contemporary observations to constrain long-term ESM responses. PMID:26074665

Separating the influence of temperature, drought, and fire on interannual variability in atmospheric CO2.

PubMed

Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Wolf, Aaron S; Mu, Mingquan; Doney, Scott C; Morton, Douglas C; Kasibhatla, Prasad S; Miller, John B; Dlugokencky, Edward J; Randerson, James T

2014-11-01

The response of the carbon cycle in prognostic Earth system models (ESMs) contributes significant uncertainty to projections of global climate change. Quantifying contributions of known drivers of interannual variability in the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is important for improving the representation of terrestrial ecosystem processes in these ESMs. Several recent studies have identified the temperature dependence of tropical net ecosystem exchange (NEE) as a primary driver of this variability by analyzing a single, globally averaged time series of CO 2 anomalies. Here we examined how the temporal evolution of CO 2 in different latitude bands may be used to separate contributions from temperature stress, drought stress, and fire emissions to CO 2 variability. We developed atmospheric CO 2 patterns from each of these mechanisms during 1997-2011 using an atmospheric transport model. NEE responses to temperature, NEE responses to drought, and fire emissions all contributed significantly to CO 2 variability in each latitude band, suggesting that no single mechanism was the dominant driver. We found that the sum of drought and fire contributions to CO 2 variability exceeded direct NEE responses to temperature in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Additional sensitivity tests revealed that these contributions are masked by temporal and spatial smoothing of CO 2 observations. Accounting for fires, the sensitivity of tropical NEE to temperature stress decreased by 25% to 2.9 ± 0.4 Pg C yr -1  K -1 . These results underscore the need for accurate attribution of the drivers of CO 2 variability prior to using contemporary observations to constrain long-term ESM responses.

Landslides, forest fires, and earthquakes: examples of self-organized critical behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turcotte, Donald L.; Malamud, Bruce D.

2004-09-01

Per Bak conceived self-organized criticality as an explanation for the behavior of the sandpile model. Subsequently, many cellular automata models were found to exhibit similar behavior. Two examples are the forest-fire and slider-block models. Each of these models can be associated with a serious natural hazard: the sandpile model with landslides, the forest-fire model with actual forest fires, and the slider-block model with earthquakes. We examine the noncumulative frequency-area statistics for each natural hazard, and show that each has a robust power-law (fractal) distribution. We propose an inverse-cascade model as a general explanation for the power-law frequency-area statistics of the three cellular-automata models and their ‘associated’ natural hazards.

Spatially-Explicit Holocene Drought Reconstructions in Amazonian Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMichael, C.; Bush, M. B.

2014-12-01

Climate models predict increasing drought in Amazonian forests over the next century, and the synergy of drought and fire may lead to forest dieback. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) are two primary drivers of Amazonian drought, and each process has a spatially distinct manifestation in the Basin. Paleoecological reconstructions can contextualize the forest response to past drought periods. Stalagmite and lake sediment records have documented that the early- to mid-Holocene, i.e. 10,000 - 5000 calibrated years before present (cal yr BP), was among the driest periods of the last 100,000 years in western Amazonia. Climatic conditions became wetter and more similar to the modern climate over the last 4000 cal yr BP, and fires rarely occurred in the absence of human activity. Yet there are currently no drought and fire reconstructions that examine the spatially explicit patterns of drought during the Holocene. Here, we present regional drought histories from southwestern and northeastern sections Amazonia for the last 10,000 years that document the drought-fire dynamics resulting from both climatic processes. Our reconstructions were based on a compilation of dated soil charcoal fragments (N= 291) collected from within Amazonia sensu stricto, which were analyzed by region using summed probability analysis. The compiled soil charcoal dates contained limited evidence of fire over the last 10,000 years in some regions. Fire frequency rose markedly across the Basin, however, during the last 2000 years, indicating an increased human presence. Fire probabilities, and thus droughts, had similar increasing trajectories between southwestern and northeastern Amazonia from 1500-1100 cal yr BP, which decoupled from 1100-740 cal yr BP, and then regained synchronicity from 740-500 cal yr BP. Fire probability declined markedly after 500 yr cal BP, coincident with European arrival to the Americas. Native populations were decimated

Landscape fragmentation, severe drought, and the new Amazon forest fire regime.

PubMed

Alencar, Ane A; Brando, Paulo M; Asner, Gregory P; Putz, Francis E

2015-09-01

Changes in weather and land use are transforming the spatial and temporal characteristics of fire regimes in Amazonia, with important effects on the functioning of dense (i.e., closed-canopy), open-canopy, and transitional forests across the Basin. To quantify, document, and describe the characteristics and recent changes in forest fire regimes, we sampled 6 million ha of these three representative forests of the eastern and southern edges of the Amazon using 24 years (1983-2007) of satellite-derived annual forest fire scar maps and 16 years of monthly hot pixel information (1992-2007). Our results reveal that changes in forest fire regime properties differentially affected these three forest types in terms of area burned and fire scar size, frequency, and seasonality. During the study period, forest fires burned 15% (0.3 million ha), 44% (1 million ha), and 46% (0.6 million ha) of dense, open, and transitional forests, respectively. Total forest area burned and fire scar size tended to increase over time (even in years of average rainfall in open canopy and transitional forests). In dense forests, most of the temporal variability in fire regime properties was linked to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related droughts. Compared with dense forests, transitional and open forests experienced fires twice as frequently, with at least 20% of these forests' areas burning two or more times during the 24-year study period. Open and transitional forests also experienced higher deforestation rates than dense forests. During drier years, the end of the dry season was delayed by about a month, which resulted in larger burn scars and increases in overall area burned later in the season. These observations suggest that climate-mediated forest flammability is enhanced by landscape fragmentation caused by deforestation, as observed for open and transitional forests in the Eastern portion of the Amazon Basin.

Managing fire risk during drought: the influence of certification and El Niño on fire-driven forest conversion for oil palm in Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noojipady, Praveen; Morton, Douglas C.; Schroeder, Wilfrid; Carlson, Kimberly M.; Huang, Chengquan; Gibbs, Holly K.; Burns, David; Walker, Nathalie F.; Prince, Stephen D.

2017-08-01

Indonesia and Malaysia have emerged as leading producers of palm oil in the past several decades, expanding production through the conversion of tropical forests to industrial plantations. Efforts to produce sustainable palm oil, including certification by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), include guidelines designed to reduce the environmental impact of palm oil production. Fire-driven deforestation is prohibited by law in both countries and a stipulation of RSPO certification, yet the degree of environmental compliance is unclear, especially during El Niño events when drought conditions increase fire risk. Here, we used time series of satellite data to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of fire-driven deforestation on and around oil palm plantations. In Indonesia, fire-driven deforestation accounted for one-quarter of total forest losses on both certified and noncertified plantations. After the first plantations in Indonesia received RSPO certification in 2009, forest loss and fire-driven deforestation declined on certified plantations but did not stop altogether. Oil palm expansion in Malaysia rarely involved fire; only 5 % of forest loss on certified plantations had coincident active fire detections. Interannual variability in fire detections was strongly influenced by El Niño and the timing of certification. Fire activity during the 2002, 2004, and 2006 El Niño events was similar among oil palm plantations in Indonesia that would later become certified, noncertified plantations, and surrounding areas. However, total fire activity was 75 % and 66 % lower on certified plantations than noncertified plantations during the 2009 and 2015 El Niño events, respectively. The decline in fire activity on certified plantations, including during drought periods, highlights the potential for RSPO certification to safeguard carbon stocks in peatlands and remaining forests in accordance with legislation banning fires. However, aligning

Effects of seasonal grazing, drought, fire, and carbon enrichment on soil microarthropods in a desert grassland

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This study was designed to test hypotheses about the combined effects of short-term, seasonal grazing with seasonal drought, fire, and carbon enrichment on soil microarthropod communities in a Chihuahuan Desert grassland. The study was conducted in eighteen 0.5 ha plots following three consecutive y...

DEVELOPMENT OF USER-FRIENDLY SIMULATION SYSTEM OF EARTHQUAKE INDUCED URBAN SPREADING FIRE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsujihara, Osamu; Gawa, Hidemi; Hayashi, Hirofumi

In the simulation of earthquake induced urban spreading fire, the produce of the analytical model of the target area is required as well as the analysis of spreading fire and the presentati on of the results. In order to promote the use of the simulation, it is important that the simulation system is non-intrusive and the analysis results can be demonstrated by the realistic presentation. In this study, the simulation system is developed based on the Petri-net algorithm, in which the easy operation can be realized in the modeling of the target area of the simulation through the presentation of analytical results by realistic 3-D animation.

Extreme wildfire events are linked to global-change-type droughts in the northern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruffault, Julien; Curt, Thomas; Martin-StPaul, Nicolas K.; Moron, Vincent; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2018-03-01

Increasing drought conditions under global warming are expected to alter the frequency and distribution of large and high-intensity wildfires. However, our understanding of the impact of increasing drought on extreme wildfires events remains incomplete. Here, we analyzed the weather conditions associated with the extreme wildfires events that occurred in Mediterranean France during the exceptionally dry summers of 2003 and 2016. We identified that these fires were related to two distinct shifts in the fire weather space towards fire weather conditions that had not been explored before and resulting from specific interactions between different types of drought and different fire weather types. In 2016, a long-lasting press drought intensified wind-driven fires. In 2003, a hot drought combining a heat wave with a press drought intensified heat-induced fires. Our findings highlight that increasing drought conditions projected by climate change scenarios might affect the dryness of fuel compartments and lead to a higher frequency of extremes wildfires events.

Forest fires in Pennsylvania.

Treesearch

Donald A. Haines; William A. Main; Eugene F. McNamara

1978-01-01

Describes factors that contribute to forest fires in Pennsylvania. Includes an analysis of basic statistics; distribution of fires during normal, drought, and wet years; fire cause, fire activity by day-of-week; multiple-fire day; and fire climatology.

Earthquake Warning Performance in Vallejo for the South Napa Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wurman, G.; Price, M.

2014-12-01

In 2002 and 2003, Seismic Warning Systems, Inc. installed first-generation QuakeGuardTM earthquake warning devices at all eight fire stations in Vallejo, CA. These devices are designed to detect the P-wave of an earthquake and initiate predetermined protective actions if the impending shaking is estimated at approximately Modifed Mercalli Intensity V or greater. At the Vallejo fire stations the devices were set up to sound an audio alert over the public address system and to command the equipment bay doors to open. In August 2014, after more than 11 years of operating in the fire stations with no false alarms, the five units that were still in use triggered correctly on the MW 6.0 South Napa earthquake, less than 16 km away. The audio alert sounded in all five stations, providing fire fighters with 1.5 to 2.5 seconds of warning before the arrival of the S-wave, and the equipment bay doors opened in three of the stations. In one station the doors were disconnected from the QuakeGuard device, and another station lost power before the doors opened completely. These problems highlight just a small portion of the complexity associated with realizing actionable earthquake warnings. The issues experienced in this earthquake have already been addressed in subsequent QuakeGuard product generations, with downstream connection monitoring and backup power for critical systems. The fact that the fire fighters in Vallejo were afforded even two seconds of warning at these epicentral distances results from the design of the QuakeGuard devices, which focuses on rapid false positive rejection and ground motion estimates. We discuss the performance of the ground motion estimation algorithms, with an emphasis on the accuracy and timeliness of the estimates at close epicentral distances.

An assessment of climate and fire danger rating in the Northern Rockies during the 1910 fire season

Treesearch

Charles W. McHugh; Mark A. Finney; Larry S. Bradshaw

2010-01-01

The 1910 fires of western Montana and northern Idaho have received much publicity in the popular media but little scientific attention regarding the factors that contribute to fire behavior and fire danger. Here we present information surrounding the weather, and reconstructed measures of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), Energy...

Fire, Ice and Water: Glaciologic, Paleoclimate and Anthropogenic Linkages During Past Mega-Droughts in the Uinta Mountains, Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Power, M. J.; Rupper, S.; Codding, B.; Schaefer, J.; Hess, M.

2017-12-01

Alpine glaciers provide a valuable water source during prolonged drought events. We explore whether long-term climate dynamics and associated glacier changes within mountain drainage basins and adjacent landscapes ultimately influence how prehistoric human populations choose settlement locations. The Uinta Mountains of Utah, with a steep present-day precipitation gradient from the lowlands to the alpine zone of 20-100 cm per year, has a rich glacial history related to natural and anthropogenic climate variability. Here we examine how past climate variability has impacted glaciers and ultimately the availability of water over long timescales, and how these changes affected human settlement and subsistence decisions. Through a combination of geomorphologic evidence, paleoclimate proxies, and glacier and climate modelling, we test the hypothesis that glacier-charged hydrologic systems buffer prehistoric populations during extreme drought periods, facilitating long-term landscape management with fire. Initial field surveys suggest middle- and low-elevation glacial valleys contain glacially-derived sediment from meltwater and resulted in terraced river channels and outwash plains visible today. These terraces provide estimates of river discharge during varying stages of glacier advance and retreat. Archaeological evidence from middle- and high-elevations in the Uinta Mountains suggests human populations persisted through periods of dramatic climate change, possibly linked to the persistence of glacially-derived water resources through drought periods. Paleoenvironmental records indicate a long history of fire driven by the combined interaction of climatic variation and human disturbance. This research highlights the important role of moisture variability determining human settlement patterns and landscape management throughout time, and has direct relevance to the impacts of anthropogenic precipitation and glacier changes on vulnerable populations in the coming century

IMPROVEMENT SUPPORT RESEARCH OF LOCAL DISASTER PREVENTION POWER USING THE FIRE SPREADING SIMULATION SYSTEM IN CASE OF A BIG EARTHQUAKE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Futagami, Toru; Omoto, Shohei; Hamamoto, Kenichirou

This research describes the risk communication towards improvement in the local disaster prevention power for Gobusho town in Marugame city which is only a high density city area in Kagawa Pref. Specifically, the key persons and authors of the area report the practice research towards improvement in the local disaster prevention power by the PDCA cycle of the area, such as formation of local voluntary disaster management organizations and implementation of an emergency drill, applying the fire spreading simulation system in case of a big earthquake. The fire spreading simulation system in case of the big earthquake which authors are developing describes the role and subject which have been achieved to BCP of the local community as a support system.

Predicting Fire Susceptibility in the Forests of Amazonia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nepstad, Daniel C.; Brown, I. Foster; Setzer, Alberto

2000-01-01

Although fire is the single greatest threat to the ecological integrity of Amazon forests, our ability to predict the occurrence of Amazon forest fires is rudimentary. Part of the difficulty encountered in making such predictions is the remarkable capacity of Amazon forests to tolerate drought by tapping moisture stored in deep soil. These forests can avoid drought-induced leaf shedding by withdrawing moisture to depths of 8 meters and more. Hence, the absorption of deep soil moisture allows these forests to maintain their leaf canopies following droughts of several months duration, thereby maintaining the deep shade and high relative humidity of the forest interior that prevents these ecosystems from burning. But the drought- and fire-avoidance that is conferred by this deep-rooting phenomenon is not unlimited. During successive years of drought, such as those provoked by El Nino episodes, deep soil moisture can be depleted, and drought-induced leaf shedding begins. The goal of this project was to incorporate this knowledge of Amazon forest fire ecology into a predictive model of forest flammability.

Assessing the vegetation condition impacts of the 2011 drought across the U.S. southern Great Plains using the vegetation drought response index (VegDRI)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tadesse, Tsegaye; Wardlow, Brian D.; Brown, Jesslyn F.; Svoboda, Mark; Hayes, Michael; Fuchs, Brian; Gutzmer, Denise

2015-01-01

The vegetation drought response index (VegDRI), which combines traditional climate- and satellite-based approaches for assessing vegetation conditions, offers new insights into assessing the impacts of drought from local to regional scales. In 2011, the U.S. southern Great Plains, which includes Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico, was plagued by moderate to extreme drought that was intensified by an extended period of record-breaking heat. The 2011 drought presented an ideal case study to evaluate the performance of VegDRI in characterizing developing drought conditions. Assessment of the spatiotemporal drought patterns represented in the VegDRI maps showed that the severity and patterns of the drought across the region corresponded well to the record warm temperatures and much-below-normal precipitation reported by the National Climatic Data Center and the sectoral drought impacts documented by the Drought Impact Reporter (DIR). VegDRI values and maps also showed the evolution of the drought signal before the Las Conchas Fire (the largest fire in New Mexico’s history). Reports in the DIR indicated that the 2011 drought had major adverse impacts on most rangeland and pastures in Texas and Oklahoma, resulting in total direct losses of more than $12 billion associated with crop, livestock, and timber production. These severe impacts on vegetation were depicted by the VegDRI at subcounty, state, and regional levels. This study indicates that the VegDRI maps can be used with traditional drought indicators and other in situ measures to help producers and government officials with various management decisions, such as justifying disaster assistance, assessing fire risk, and identifying locations to move livestock for grazing.

The extreme drought episode of August 2011-May 2012: A scenario for future droughts in Central Europe?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahradníček, P.; Trnka, M.; Brázdil, R.; Mozny, M.; Stepanek, P.; Hlavinka, P.; Malý, A.; Dubrovsky, M.

2014-12-01

The weather conditions from August 2011 to May 2012 produced an extreme drought in the eastern Czech Republic (Moravia), whereas the patterns were nearly normal in its western region (Bohemia). The Southern and Central Moravia regions, which represent the most important agricultural areas, were most affected by the drought. The precipitation totals for the studied period were 50% to 70% of the long-term mean, which was calculated for 1961-2000. In autumn 2011, the total precipitation accounted for 10% to 30% of the long-term mean for most of Moravia, increasing to 30% to 50% in spring 2012. Moreover, 7.5% of the Czech Republic experienced a 100-year drought; 20% of the country experienced a 20-year drought. According to the Palmer Drought Severity Index, the 2012 drought was classified as the worst in the past 130 years. The drought patterns were related to the prevailing high-pressure systems over Central Europe and the occurrence of weather types with different precipitation amounts in Bohemia and Moravia. The most substantial drought effects occurred in the agricultural sector. A decrease in cereal yields was observed in the analyzed production areas in Moravia, which was unprecedented in the past 52 years. Moreover, winter crops were affected more than spring crops. An increased risk of fire occurred due to the drought conditions; the largest forest fire in the past 15 years was recorded during this period. Furthermore, signs of hydrological drought were also reported in rivers. The 2011-2012 drought was compared with the significant droughts in 2000, 2003 and 2007. Austria and Slovakia, which neighbor the Czech Republic, experienced a similar drought. This drought analysis can be used as a scenario for future droughts and their impacts in Central Europe due to the global warming projected by GCMs.Acknowledgements:This study was made possible by the generous support of the "Establishment of International Scientific Team Focused on Drought Research" project (no

Drought impacts on children's respiratory health in the Brazilian Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Lauren T.; Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.; Sabel, Clive E.; Nakaya, Tomoki

2014-01-01

Drought conditions in Amazonia are associated with increased fire incidence, enhancing aerosol emissions with degradation in air quality. Quantifying the synergic influence of climate and human-driven environmental changes on human health is, therefore, critical for identifying climate change adaptation pathways for this vulnerable region. Here we show a significant increase (1.2%-267%) in hospitalisations for respiratory diseases in children under-five in municipalities highly exposed to drought. Aerosol was the primary driver of hospitalisations in drought affected municipalities during 2005, while human development conditions mitigated the impacts in 2010. Our results demonstrated that drought events deteriorated children's respiratory health particularly during 2005 when the drought was more geographically concentrated. This indicates that if governments act on curbing fire usage and effectively plan public health provision, as a climate change adaptation procedure, health quality would improve and public expenditure for treatment would decrease in the region during future drought events.

Studies of images of short-lived events using ERTS data. [forest fires, oil spills, vegetation damage, volcanoes, storm ridges, earthquakes, and floods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deutschman, W. A. (Principal Investigator)

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Detection of short-lived events has continued. Forest fires, oil spills, vegetation damage, volcanoes, storm ridges, earthquakes, and floods have been detected and analyzed.

Drought impacts on children's respiratory health in the Brazilian Amazon

PubMed Central

Smith, Lauren T.; Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.; Sabel, Clive E.; Nakaya, Tomoki

2014-01-01

Drought conditions in Amazonia are associated with increased fire incidence, enhancing aerosol emissions with degradation in air quality. Quantifying the synergic influence of climate and human-driven environmental changes on human health is, therefore, critical for identifying climate change adaptation pathways for this vulnerable region. Here we show a significant increase (1.2%–267%) in hospitalisations for respiratory diseases in children under-five in municipalities highly exposed to drought. Aerosol was the primary driver of hospitalisations in drought affected municipalities during 2005, while human development conditions mitigated the impacts in 2010. Our results demonstrated that drought events deteriorated children's respiratory health particularly during 2005 when the drought was more geographically concentrated. This indicates that if governments act on curbing fire usage and effectively plan public health provision, as a climate change adaptation procedure, health quality would improve and public expenditure for treatment would decrease in the region during future drought events. PMID:24430803

A new forest fire paradigm: The need for high-severity fires

Treesearch

Monica L. Bond; Rodney B. Siegel; Richard L. Hutto; Victoria A. Saab; Stephen A. Shunk

2012-01-01

Bond, Monica L.; Siegel, Rodney B.; Hutto, Richard L.; Saab, Victoria A.; Shunk, Stephen A. 2012. A new forest fire paradigm: The need for high-severity fires. The Wildlife Professional. Winter 2012: 46-49. During the 2012 fire season from June through August, wildfires in the drought-stricken western and central United States burned more than 3.6 million acres of...

The Impact of Precipitation Regimes on Forest Fires in Yunnan Province, Southwest China

PubMed Central

Chen, Feng; Niu, Shukui; Tong, Xiaojuan; Zhao, Jinlong; Sun, Yu; He, Tengfei

2014-01-01

The amount, frequency, and duration of precipitation have important impact on the occurrence and severity of forest fires. To fully understand the effects of precipitation regimes on forest fires, a drought index was developed with number of consecutive dry days (daily precipitation less than 2 mm) and total precipitation, and the relationships of drought and precipitation with fire activities were investigated over two periods (i.e., 1982–1988 and 1989–2008) in five ecoregions of Yunnan Province. The results showed that precipitation regime had a significant relationship with fire activities during the two periods. However, the influence of the drought on fire activities varied by ecoregions, with more impacts in drier ecoregions IV-V and less impacts in the more humid ecoregions I–III. The drought was more closely related to fire activities than precipitation during the two study periods, especially in the drier ecoregions, indicating that the frequency and the duration of precipitation had significant influences on forest fires in the drier areas. Drought appears to offer a better explanation than total precipitation on temporal changes in fire regimes across the five ecoregions in Yunnan. Our findings have significant implications for forecasting the local fire dangers under the future climate change. PMID:25243208

The impact of precipitation regimes on forest fires in Yunnan Province, southwest China.

PubMed

Chen, Feng; Niu, Shukui; Tong, Xiaojuan; Zhao, Jinlong; Sun, Yu; He, Tengfei

2014-01-01

The amount, frequency, and duration of precipitation have important impact on the occurrence and severity of forest fires. To fully understand the effects of precipitation regimes on forest fires, a drought index was developed with number of consecutive dry days (daily precipitation less than 2 mm) and total precipitation, and the relationships of drought and precipitation with fire activities were investigated over two periods (i.e., 1982-1988 and 1989-2008) in five ecoregions of Yunnan Province. The results showed that precipitation regime had a significant relationship with fire activities during the two periods. However, the influence of the drought on fire activities varied by ecoregions, with more impacts in drier ecoregions IV-V and less impacts in the more humid ecoregions I-III. The drought was more closely related to fire activities than precipitation during the two study periods, especially in the drier ecoregions, indicating that the frequency and the duration of precipitation had significant influences on forest fires in the drier areas. Drought appears to offer a better explanation than total precipitation on temporal changes in fire regimes across the five ecoregions in Yunnan. Our findings have significant implications for forecasting the local fire dangers under the future climate change.

A Drought Index for Forest Fire Control

Treesearch

John J. Keetch; George M. Byram

1968-01-01

The moisture content of the upper soil, as well as that of the covering layer of duff, has an important effect on the fire suppression effort in forest and wildland areas. In certain forested areas of the United States, fires in deep duff fuels are of particular concern to the fire control manager. When these fuels are dry, fires burn deeply, dam-age is excessive, and...

Forest biogeochemistry in response to drought.

PubMed

Schlesinger, William H; Dietze, Michael C; Jackson, Robert B; Phillips, Richard P; Rhoades, Charles C; Rustad, Lindsey E; Vose, James M

2016-07-01

Trees alter their use and allocation of nutrients in response to drought, and changes in soil nutrient cycling and trace gas flux (N2 O and CH4 ) are observed when experimental drought is imposed on forests. In extreme droughts, trees are increasingly susceptible to attack by pests and pathogens, which can lead to major changes in nutrient flux to the soil. Extreme droughts often lead to more common and more intense forest fires, causing dramatic changes in the nutrient storage and loss from forest ecosystems. Changes in the future manifestation of drought will affect carbon uptake and storage in forests, leading to feedbacks to the Earth's climate system. We must improve the recognition of drought in nature, our ability to manage our forests in the face of drought, and the parameterization of drought in earth system models for improved predictions of carbon uptake and storage in the world's forests. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Is Managed Wildfire Protecting Yosemite National Park from Drought?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boisrame, G. F. S.; Thompson, S. E.; Stephens, S.; Collins, B.; Kelly, M.; Tague, N.

2016-12-01

Fire suppression in many dry forest types has left a legacy of dense, homogeneous forests. Such landscapes have high water demands and fuel loads, and when burned can result in catastrophically large fires. These characteristics are undesirable in the face of projected warming and drying in the Western US. This project explores the potential of managed wildfire - a forest management strategy in which fires caused by lightning are allowed to burn naturally as long as certain safety parameters are met - to reverse the effects of fire suppression. The Illilouette Creek Basin in Yosemite National Park has experienced 40 years of managed wildfire, reducing forest cover and increasing meadow and shrubland areas. We have collected evidence from field measurements and remote sensing which suggest that managed wildfire increases landscape and hydrologic heterogeneity, and likely improves resilience to disturbances such as fire and drought. Vegetation maps created from aerial photos show an increase in landscape heterogeneity following the introduction of managed wildfire. Soil moisture observations during the drought years of 2013-2016 suggest that transitions from dense forest to shrublands or meadows can increase summer soil moisture. In the winter of 2015-2016, snow depth measurements showed deeper spring snowpacks in burned areas compared to dense forests. Our study provides a unique view of relatively long-term effects of managed wildfire on vegetation change, ecohydrology, and drought resistance. Understanding these effects is increasingly important as the use of managed wildfire becomes more widely accepted, and as the likelihood of both drought and wildfire increases.

Observing The Dynamics Of Wildland Grass Fires: FireFlux -A Field Validation Experiment

Treesearch

Craig B. Clements; Shiyuan Zhong; Scott Goodrick; Ju Li; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman; Joseph J. Charney; Ryan Perna; Meongdo Jang; Daegyun Lee; Monica Patel; Susan Street; Glenn Aumann

2007-01-01

Grass fires, although not as intense as forest fires, present a major threat to life and property during periods of drought in the Great Plains of the United States. Recently, major wildland grass fires in Texas burned nearly 1.6 million acres and destroyed over 730 homes and 1320 other buildings. The fires resulted in the death of 19 people, an estimated loss of 10,...

Fire, climate and vegetation linkages in the Bolivian Chiquitano seasonally dry tropical forest.

PubMed

Power, M J; Whitney, B S; Mayle, F E; Neves, D M; de Boer, E J; Maclean, K S

2016-06-05

South American seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) are critically endangered, with only a small proportion of their original distribution remaining. This paper presents a 12 000 year reconstruction of climate change, fire and vegetation dynamics in the Bolivian Chiquitano SDTF, based upon pollen and charcoal analysis, to examine the resilience of this ecosystem to drought and fire. Our analysis demonstrates a complex relationship between climate, fire and floristic composition over multi-millennial time scales, and reveals that moisture variability is the dominant control upon community turnover in this ecosystem. Maximum drought during the Early Holocene, consistent with regional drought reconstructions, correlates with a period of significant fire activity between 8000 and 7000 cal yr BP which resulted in a decrease in SDTF diversity. As fire activity declined but severe regional droughts persisted through the Middle Holocene, SDTFs, including Anadenanthera and Astronium, became firmly established in the Bolivian lowlands. The trend of decreasing fire activity during the last two millennia promotes the idea among forest ecologists that SDTFs are threatened by fire. Our analysis shows that the Chiquitano seasonally dry biome has been more resilient to Holocene changes in climate and fire regime than previously assumed, but raises questions over whether this resilience will continue in the future under increased temperatures and drought coupled with a higher frequency anthropogenic fire regime.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Fire, climate and vegetation linkages in the Bolivian Chiquitano seasonally dry tropical forest

PubMed Central

Power, M. J.; Whitney, B. S.; Mayle, F. E.; Neves, D. M.; de Boer, E. J.; Maclean, K. S.

2016-01-01

South American seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) are critically endangered, with only a small proportion of their original distribution remaining. This paper presents a 12 000 year reconstruction of climate change, fire and vegetation dynamics in the Bolivian Chiquitano SDTF, based upon pollen and charcoal analysis, to examine the resilience of this ecosystem to drought and fire. Our analysis demonstrates a complex relationship between climate, fire and floristic composition over multi-millennial time scales, and reveals that moisture variability is the dominant control upon community turnover in this ecosystem. Maximum drought during the Early Holocene, consistent with regional drought reconstructions, correlates with a period of significant fire activity between 8000 and 7000 cal yr BP which resulted in a decrease in SDTF diversity. As fire activity declined but severe regional droughts persisted through the Middle Holocene, SDTFs, including Anadenanthera and Astronium, became firmly established in the Bolivian lowlands. The trend of decreasing fire activity during the last two millennia promotes the idea among forest ecologists that SDTFs are threatened by fire. Our analysis shows that the Chiquitano seasonally dry biome has been more resilient to Holocene changes in climate and fire regime than previously assumed, but raises questions over whether this resilience will continue in the future under increased temperatures and drought coupled with a higher frequency anthropogenic fire regime. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’. PMID:27216522

Current and future patterns of fire-induced forest degradation in Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Faria, Bruno L.; Brando, Paulo M.; Macedo, Marcia N.; Panday, Prajjwal K.; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S.; Coe, Michael T.

2017-09-01

Amazon droughts directly increase forest flammability by reducing forest understory air and fuel moisture. Droughts also increase forest flammability indirectly by decreasing soil moisture, triggering leaf shedding, branch loss, and tree mortality—all of which contribute to increased fuel loads. These direct and indirect effects can cause widespread forest fires that reduce forest carbon stocks in the Amazon, with potentially important consequences for the global carbon cycle. These processes are expected to become more widespread, common, and intense as global climate changes, yet the mechanisms linking droughts, wildfires, and associated changes in carbon stocks remain poorly understood. Here, we expanded the capabilities of a dynamic forest carbon model to better represent (1) drought effects on carbon and fuel dynamics and (2) understory fire behavior and severity. We used the refined model to quantify changes in Pan-Amazon live carbon stocks as a function of the maximum climatological water deficit (MCWD) and fire intensity, under both historical and future climate conditions. We found that the 2005 and 2010 droughts increased potential fire intensity by 226 kW m-1 and 494 kW m-1, respectively. These increases were due primarily to increased understory dryness (109 kW m-1 in 2005; 124 kW m-1 in 2010) and altered forest structure (117 kW m-1 in 2005; 370 kW m-1 in 2010) effects. Combined, these historic droughts drove total simulated reductions in live carbon stocks of 0.016 (2005) and 0.027 (2010) PgC across the Amazon Basin. Projected increases in future fire intensity increased simulated carbon losses by up to 90% per unit area burned, compared with modern climate. Increased air temperature was the primary driver of changes in simulated future fire intensity, while reduced precipitation was secondary, particularly in the eastern portion of the Basin. Our results show that fire-drought interactions strongly affect live carbon stocks and that future climate

Dynamics, Patterns and Causes of Fires in Northwestern Amazonia

PubMed Central

Armenteras, Dolors; Retana, Javier

2012-01-01

According to recent studies, two widespread droughts occurred in the Amazon basin, one during 2005 and one during 2010. The drought increased the prevalence of climate-driven fires over most of the basin. Given the importance of human-atmosphere-vegetation interactions in tropical rainforests, these events have generated concerns over the vulnerability of this area to climate change. This paper focuses on one of the wettest areas of the basin, Northwestern Amazonia, where the interactions between the climate and fires are much weaker and where little is known about the anthropogenic drivers of fires. We have assessed the response of fires to climate over a ten-year period, and analysed the socio-economic and demographic determinants of fire occurrence. The patterns of fires and climate and their linkages in Northwestern Amazonia differ from the enhanced fire response to climate variation observed in the rest of Amazonia. The highest number of recorded fires in Northwestern Amazonia occurred in 2004 and 2007, and this did not coincide with the periods of extreme drought experienced in Amazonia in 2005 and 2010. Rather, during those years, Northwestern Amazonia experienced a relatively small numbers of fire hotspots. We have shown that fire occurrence correlated well with deforestation and was determined by anthropogenic drivers, mainly small-scale agriculture, cattle ranching (i.e., pastures) and active agricultural frontiers (including illegal crops). Thus, the particular climatic conditions for air convergence and rainfall created by proximity to the Andes, coupled with the presence of one of the most active colonisation fronts in the region, make this region differently affected by the general drought-induced fire patterns experienced by the rest of the Amazon. Moreover, the results suggest that, even in this wet region, humans are able to modify the frequency of fires and impact these historically well preserved forests. PMID:22523580

Dynamics, patterns and causes of fires in Northwestern Amazonia.

PubMed

Armenteras, Dolors; Retana, Javier

2012-01-01

According to recent studies, two widespread droughts occurred in the Amazon basin, one during 2005 and one during 2010. The drought increased the prevalence of climate-driven fires over most of the basin. Given the importance of human-atmosphere-vegetation interactions in tropical rainforests, these events have generated concerns over the vulnerability of this area to climate change. This paper focuses on one of the wettest areas of the basin, Northwestern Amazonia, where the interactions between the climate and fires are much weaker and where little is known about the anthropogenic drivers of fires. We have assessed the response of fires to climate over a ten-year period, and analysed the socio-economic and demographic determinants of fire occurrence. The patterns of fires and climate and their linkages in Northwestern Amazonia differ from the enhanced fire response to climate variation observed in the rest of Amazonia. The highest number of recorded fires in Northwestern Amazonia occurred in 2004 and 2007, and this did not coincide with the periods of extreme drought experienced in Amazonia in 2005 and 2010. Rather, during those years, Northwestern Amazonia experienced a relatively small numbers of fire hotspots. We have shown that fire occurrence correlated well with deforestation and was determined by anthropogenic drivers, mainly small-scale agriculture, cattle ranching (i.e., pastures) and active agricultural frontiers (including illegal crops). Thus, the particular climatic conditions for air convergence and rainfall created by proximity to the Andes, coupled with the presence of one of the most active colonisation fronts in the region, make this region differently affected by the general drought-induced fire patterns experienced by the rest of the Amazon. Moreover, the results suggest that, even in this wet region, humans are able to modify the frequency of fires and impact these historically well preserved forests.

Deforestation fires versus understory fires in the Amazon Basin: What can we learn from satellite-based CO measurements?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez-Alonso, S.; Deeter, M. N.; Worden, H. M.; Gille, J. C.; Clerbaux, C.; George, M.

2014-12-01

Deforestation fires in the Amazon Basin abound during the dry season (July to October) and are mostly associated with "slash and burn" agricultural practices. Understory fires occur when fires escape from deforested areas into neighboring standing forests; they spread slowly below the canopy, affecting areas that may be comparable or even larger than clear-cut areas. The interannual variabilities of understory fires and deforestation rates appear to be uncorrelated. Areas burned in understory fires are particularly extensive during droughts. Because they progress below a canopy of living trees, understory fires and their effects are not as easily identifiable from space as deforestation fires. Here we analyze satellite remote sensing products for CO and fire to investigate differences between deforestation fires and understory fires in the Amazon Basin under varying climatic conditions. The MOPITT (Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere) instrument on board NASA's Terra satellite has been measuring tropospheric CO since 2000, providing the longest global CO record to date. IASI (the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) A and B are two instruments on board METOP-A and -B, respectively, measuring, among others, CO since 2006 and 2012. MODIS (the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) instruments on board NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites provide, among other products, a daily record of fires and their effects since 2000 and 2002, respectively. The temporal extent of all these datasets allows for the detailed analysis of drought versus non-drought years. Initial results indicate that MOPITT CO emissions during the dry season peaked in 2005, 2007, and 2010. Those were draught years and coincide with peaks in area affected by understory fires.

California Fires

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2014-05-15

... title:  Smoke from Station Fire Blankets Southern California     View Larger Image ... that had not burned in decades, and years of extended drought contributed to the explosive growth of wildfires throughout southern ...

Influence of repeated prescribed fire on tree growth and mortality in Pinus resinosa forests, northern Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bottero, Alessandra; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Palik, Brian J.; Kern, Christel C.; Bradford, John B.; Scherer, Sawyer S.

2017-01-01

Prescribed fire is widely used for ecological restoration and fuel reduction in fire-dependent ecosystems, most of which are also prone to drought. Despite the importance of drought in fire-adapted forests, little is known about cumulative effects of repeated prescribed burning on tree growth and related response to drought. Using dendrochronological data in red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.)-dominated forests in northern Minnesota, USA, we examined growth responses before and after understory prescribed fires between 1960 and 1970, to assess whether repeated burning influences growth responses of overstory trees and vulnerability of overstory tree growth to drought. We found no difference in tree-level growth vulnerability to drought, expressed as growth resistance, resilience, and recovery, between areas receiving prescribed fire treatments and untreated forests. Annual mortality rates during the period of active burning were also low (less than 2%) in all treatments. These findings indicate that prescribed fire can be effectively integrated into management plans and climate change adaptation strategies for red pine forest ecosystems without significant short- or long-term negative consequences for growth or mortality rates of overstory trees.

The German drought monitor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zink, Matthias; Samaniego, Luis; Kumar, Rohini; Thober, Stephan; Mai, Juliane; Schäfer, David; Marx, Andreas

2016-07-01

The 2003 drought event in Europe had major implications on many societal sectors, including energy production, health, forestry and agriculture. The reduced availability of water accompanied by high temperatures led to substantial economic losses on the order of 1.5 Billion Euros, in agriculture alone. Furthermore, soil droughts have considerable impacts on ecosystems, forest fires and water management. Monitoring soil water availability in near real-time and at high-resolution, i.e., 4 × 4 km2, enables water managers to mitigate the impact of these extreme events. The German drought monitor was established in 2014 as an online platform. It uses an operational modeling system that consists of four steps: (1) a daily update of observed meteorological data by the German Weather Service, with consistency checks and interpolation; (2) an estimation of current soil moisture using the mesoscale hydrological model; (3) calculation of a quantile-based soil moisture index (SMI) based on a 60 year data record; and (4) classification of the SMI into five drought classes ranging from abnormally dry to exceptional drought. Finally, an easy to understand map is produced and published on a daily basis on www.ufz.de/droughtmonitor. Analysis of the ongoing 2015 drought event, which garnered broad media attention, shows that 75% of the German territory underwent drought conditions in July 2015. Regions such as Northern Bavaria and Eastern Saxony, however, have been particularly prone to drought conditions since autumn 2014. Comparisons with historical droughts show that the 2015 event is amongst the ten most severe drought events observed in Germany since 1954 in terms of its spatial extent, magnitude and duration.

Chaparral and fire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keeley, Jon E.

2007-01-01

Large wildfires are an inevitable feature of chaparral. The moderate temperatures during winter promote growth of extensive stands of shrublands with contiguous fuels covering massive portions of the landscape. The summer-fall drought makes these fuels highly flammable over a relatively lengthy portion of the year. Because of widespread human influence, most fires today are anthropogenic; however, in wilderness areas lightning still accounts for some chaparral fires.

Bending the carbon curve: fire management for carbon resilience under climate change

Treesearch

E. L. Loudermilk; R. M. Scheller; P. J. Weisberg; Alec Kretchun

2017-01-01

Forest landscapes are increasingly managed for fire resilience, particularly in the western US which has recently experienced drought and widespread, high-severity wildfires. Fuel reduction treatments have been effective where fires coincide with treated areas. Fuel treatments also have the potential to reduce drought-mortality if tree density is...

Indonesian fire activity and smoke pollution in 2015 show persistent nonlinear sensitivity to El Niño-induced drought.

PubMed

Field, Robert D; van der Werf, Guido R; Fanin, Thierry; Fetzer, Eric J; Fuller, Ryan; Jethva, Hiren; Levy, Robert; Livesey, Nathaniel J; Luo, Ming; Torres, Omar; Worden, Helen M

2016-08-16

The 2015 fire season and related smoke pollution in Indonesia was more severe than the major 2006 episode, making it the most severe season observed by the NASA Earth Observing System satellites that go back to the early 2000s, namely active fire detections from the Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS), MODIS aerosol optical depth, Terra Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) carbon monoxide (CO), Aqua Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) CO, Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aerosol index, and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) CO. The MLS CO in the upper troposphere showed a plume of pollution stretching from East Africa to the western Pacific Ocean that persisted for 2 mo. Longer-term records of airport visibility in Sumatra and Kalimantan show that 2015 ranked after 1997 and alongside 1991 and 1994 as among the worst episodes on record. Analysis of yearly dry season rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and rain gauges shows that, due to the continued use of fire to clear and prepare land on degraded peat, the Indonesian fire environment continues to have nonlinear sensitivity to dry conditions during prolonged periods with less than 4 mm/d of precipitation, and this sensitivity appears to have increased over Kalimantan. Without significant reforms in land use and the adoption of early warning triggers tied to precipitation forecasts, these intense fire episodes will reoccur during future droughts, usually associated with El Niño events.

Indonesian fire activity and smoke pollution in 2015 show persistent nonlinear sensitivity to El Niño-induced drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Field, Robert D.; van der Werf, Guido R.; Fanin, Thierry; Fetzer, Eric J.; Fuller, Ryan; Jethva, Hiren; Levy, Robert; Livesey, Nathaniel J.; Luo, Ming; Torres, Omar; Worden, Helen M.

2016-08-01

The 2015 fire season and related smoke pollution in Indonesia was more severe than the major 2006 episode, making it the most severe season observed by the NASA Earth Observing System satellites that go back to the early 2000s, namely active fire detections from the Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS), MODIS aerosol optical depth, Terra Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) carbon monoxide (CO), Aqua Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) CO, Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aerosol index, and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) CO. The MLS CO in the upper troposphere showed a plume of pollution stretching from East Africa to the western Pacific Ocean that persisted for 2 mo. Longer-term records of airport visibility in Sumatra and Kalimantan show that 2015 ranked after 1997 and alongside 1991 and 1994 as among the worst episodes on record. Analysis of yearly dry season rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and rain gauges shows that, due to the continued use of fire to clear and prepare land on degraded peat, the Indonesian fire environment continues to have nonlinear sensitivity to dry conditions during prolonged periods with less than 4 mm/d of precipitation, and this sensitivity appears to have increased over Kalimantan. Without significant reforms in land use and the adoption of early warning triggers tied to precipitation forecasts, these intense fire episodes will reoccur during future droughts, usually associated with El Niño events.

Indonesian Fire Activity and Smoke Pollution in 2015 Show Persistent Nonlinear Sensitivity to El Niño-induced Drought

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Field, Robert D.; van der Werf, Guido R.; Fanin, Thierry; Fetzer, Eric; Fuller, Ryan; Jethva, Hiren; Levy, Robert; Livesey, Nathaniel; Luo, Ming; Torres, Omar;

Indonesian fire activity and smoke pollution in 2015 show persistent nonlinear sensitivity to El Niño-induced drought

PubMed Central

Field, Robert D.; van der Werf, Guido R.; Fanin, Thierry; Fetzer, Eric J.; Fuller, Ryan; Jethva, Hiren; Levy, Robert; Livesey, Nathaniel J.; Luo, Ming; Torres, Omar; Worden, Helen M.

2016-01-01

The 2015 fire season and related smoke pollution in Indonesia was more severe than the major 2006 episode, making it the most severe season observed by the NASA Earth Observing System satellites that go back to the early 2000s, namely active fire detections from the Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS), MODIS aerosol optical depth, Terra Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) carbon monoxide (CO), Aqua Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) CO, Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aerosol index, and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) CO. The MLS CO in the upper troposphere showed a plume of pollution stretching from East Africa to the western Pacific Ocean that persisted for 2 mo. Longer-term records of airport visibility in Sumatra and Kalimantan show that 2015 ranked after 1997 and alongside 1991 and 1994 as among the worst episodes on record. Analysis of yearly dry season rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and rain gauges shows that, due to the continued use of fire to clear and prepare land on degraded peat, the Indonesian fire environment continues to have nonlinear sensitivity to dry conditions during prolonged periods with less than 4 mm/d of precipitation, and this sensitivity appears to have increased over Kalimantan. Without significant reforms in land use and the adoption of early warning triggers tied to precipitation forecasts, these intense fire episodes will reoccur during future droughts, usually associated with El Niño events. PMID:27482096

Fire-climate interactions in the American West since 1400 CE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trouet, Valerie; Taylor, Alan H.; Wahl, Eugene R.; Skinner, Carl N.; Stephens, Scott L.

2010-02-01

Despite a strong anthropogenic fingerprint on 20th Century wildland fire activity in the American West, climate remains a main driver. A better understanding of the spatio-temporal variability in fire-climate interactions is therefore crucial for fire management. Here, we present annually resolved, tree-ring based fire records for four regions in the American West that extend back to 1400 CE. In all regions, years with high fire activity were characterized by widespread yet regionally distinct summer droughts. Overall fire activity was high in late Medieval times, when much of the American West was affected by mega-droughts. A distinct decline in fire activity in the late 16th Century corresponds with anomalously low temperatures during the Little Ice Age and a decline in Native American fire use. The high spatiotemporal resolution of our fire record discloses a time-frequency dependent climatic influence on wildfire regimes in the American West that needs to be accounted for in fire models.

The 2009/2010 Caribbean drought: a case study.

PubMed

Peters, Everson J

2015-10-01

The impacts of drought in the Caribbean have not been as dramatic as in some other parts of world, but it is not exempt from the experiences of drought. As a result of the effects of a prolonged drought in 2009/2010, the agenda for the 21st Inter-Sessional Meeting of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) paid particular attention to the issue of drought. This paper reviews the management framework for responding to drought disasters in five CARICOM countries. The paper also reports on some of the effects of the 2009/2010 drought with particular reference to Grenada and the Grenadines. During the drought in these islands there were numerous bush fires with devastating effects on agriculture, severe water shortages that impacted on the tourism industry and other social effects. It is evident that there was inadequate preparation for the event. Greater planning and investment are therefore required to reduce future impacts. © 2015 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2015.

Model gives a 3-month warning of Amazonian forest fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Colin

2011-08-01

The widespread drought suffered by the Amazon rain forest in the summer of 2005 was heralded at the time as the drought of the century. Because of the dehydrated conditions, supplemented by slash and burn agricultural practices, the drought led to widespread forest fires throughout the western Amazon, a portion of the rain forest usually too lush to support spreading wildfires. Only 5 years later, the 2005 season was outdone by even more widespread drought, with fires decimating more than 3000 square kilometers of western Amazonian rain forest. Blame for the wildfires has been consistently laid on deforestation and agricultural practices, but a convincing climatological explanation exists as well. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2011GL047392, 2011)

Firebrands and spotting ignition in large-scale fires

Treesearch

Eunmo Koo; Patrick J. Pagni; David R. Weise; John P. Woycheese

2010-01-01

Spotting ignition by lofted firebrands is a significant mechanism of fire spread, as observed in many largescale fires. The role of firebrands in fire propagation and the important parameters involved in spot fire development are studied. Historical large-scale fires, including wind-driven urban and wildland conflagrations and post-earthquake fires are given as...

Are Northeastern U.S. forests vulnerable to extreme drought?

Treesearch

Adam P. Coble; Matthew A. Vadeboncoeur; Z. Carter Berry; Katie A. Jennings; Cameron D. McIntire; John L. Campbell; Lindsey E. Rustad; Pamela H. Templer; Heidi Asbjornsen

2017-01-01

In the Northeastern U.S., drought is expected to increase in frequency over the next century, and therefore, the responses of trees to drought are important to understand. There is recent debate about whether land-use change or moisture availability is the primary driver of changes in forest species composition in this region. Some argue that fire suppression from the...

Synergistic effects of drought and fire on the carbon carrying capacity of tropical forests and woodlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boer, Matthias; Bradstock, Ross

2014-05-01

More than half of the global forest carbon stock is held in tropical forests. A relatively large proportion of the tropical forest carbon is stored in plant biomass rather than in the soil, making these stocks particularly vulnerable to disturbances such as droughts, fires and cyclones. The frequencies, duration and intensities of such disturbances may change under future climates with poorly resolved but potentially significant (synergistic) effects on the carbon carrying capacity of tropical forests and thereby on global geochemical cycles. In this study we analyse high-resolution global data sets for tropical forest biomass (Saatchi et al., 2011. PNAS) and fire affected areas (GFED4, Giglio et al.,2013. JGR 118), together with climate data (WorldClim, Hijmans et al., 2005. Int. J. Clim. 25), to quantify the sensitivity of tropical forest carbon stocks in South America, Africa and Asia/Australia to seasonal water deficits and fire. Here, the climatic water deficit (D), calculated as the difference between mean annual potential evapotranspiration and actual evapotranspiration, is used as a measure of seasonal water stress (i.e., evaporative demand not met by available water), while the mean annual burned area fraction (1995-2013) of grid cells is used as a measure of average fire activity. Tropical forest carbon stocks are maximal, as expected, where water deficits are negligible. In those densely forested environments fire tends to be extremely rare as fuels are too wet to burn for most of the time. In all three continents, potential tropical forest carbon stocks are well predicted by a non-linear decreasing function of the mean annual climatic water deficit, with a steep drop in carbon stocks at D of 700-800 mm per year. At this threshold in the climatic water deficit we observe a strong increase in fire activity that is indicative of a critical change in vegetation structure (i.e., tree/grass ratio) and associated shift in the dominant climatic constraint on

Hydrological extremes in the media: The 2015 drought event in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zink, Matthias; Samaniego, Luis; Kumar, Rohini; Thober, Stephan; Mai, Juliane; Schäfer, David; Marx, Andreas

2017-04-01

The 2003 drought event had major implications on many societal sectors, including energy production, health, forestry and agriculture. The reduced availability of water accompanied by high temperatures led to substantial economic losses in Germany on the order of 1.5 Billion Euros, in agriculture alone. Furthermore, soil droughts have considerable impacts on ecosystems, forest fires and water management. In 2015, another drought event impacted Germany which had impacts on inland navigation, forest fire risk and agriculture among others. Due to this drought event, corn yield reduced by 22% compared to the preceding 5 years. This drought event was tracked by the 2014 implemented German Drought Monitor, a near real-time, online soil water monitoring platform (Zink et al., 2016). This platform uses an high resolution, operational modeling system which delivers easy to understand maps of soil drought conditions that are published on a daily basis on www.ufz.de/droughtmonitor. During the 2015 event, the German Drought Monitor was used by several regional to national newspapers as well as by television to inform the public about the recent status of soil moisture conditions. Next to publishing the drought maps, we were asked to comment the drought development and especially the severity of the ongoing drought event. On the one hand, this gave us the opportunity to inform the public about different types and the characterization of droughts. On the other hand, some journalists just tried to invoke statements such as "this is the most severe drought event ever recorded" to get a good headline. Further the secondmost pressing question of the journalists was, if the current event could be directly attributed to climate change. A clear answer to this question could not be given since the drought monitor is based on only a 65 year period of data. Depending on the media company, different depths of information and knowledge was finally transferred to the newsletter article and

Modeling the Effects of Drought, Fire, Beetles, and Management on Future Carbon Cycling in the Western US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buotte, P.; Law, B. E.; Hicke, J. A.; Hudiburg, T. W.; Levis, S.; Kent, J.

2017-12-01

Fire and beetle outbreaks can have substantial impacts on forest structure, composition, and function and these types of disturbances are expected to increase in the future. Therefore understanding the ecological impacts of these disturbances into the future is important. We used ecosystem process modeling to estimate the future occurrence of fire and beetle outbreaks and their impacts on forest resilience and carbon sequestration. We modified the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) to better represent forest growth and mortality in the western US through multiple avenues: 1) we increased the ecological resolution to recognize 14 forest types common to the region; 2) we improved CLM4.5's ability to handle drought stress by adding forest type-specific controls on stomatal conductance and increased rates of leaf shed during periods of low soil moisture; 3) we developed and implemented a mechanistic model of beetle population growth and subsequent tree mortality; 4) we modified the current fire module to account for more refined forest types; and 5) we developed multiple scenarios of harvest based on past harvest rates and proposed changes in land management policies. We ran CLM4.5 in offline mode with climate forcing data. We compare future forest growth rates and carbon sequestration with historical metrics to estimate the combined influence of future disturbances on forest composition and carbon sequestration in the western US.

On the of neural modeling of some dynamic parameters of earthquakes and fire safety in high-rise construction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haritonova, Larisa

2018-03-01

The recent change in the correlation of the number of man-made and natural catastrophes is presented in the paper. Some recommendations are proposed to increase the firefighting efficiency in the high-rise buildings. The article analyzes the methodology of modeling seismic effects. The prospectivity of applying the neural modeling and artificial neural networks to analyze a such dynamic parameters of the earthquake foci as the value of dislocation (or the average rupture slip) is shown. The following two input signals were used: the power class and the number of earthquakes. The regression analysis has been carried out for the predicted results and the target outputs. The equations of the regression for the outputs and target are presented in the work as well as the correlation coefficients in training, validation, testing, and the total (All) for the network structure 2-5-5-1for the average rupture slip. The application of the results obtained in the article for the seismic design for the newly constructed buildings and structures and the given recommendations will provide the additional protection from fire and earthquake risks, reduction of their negative economic and environmental consequences.

Fire patterns in the Amazonian biome

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aragao, Luiz E. O. C.; Shimabukuro, Yosio E.; Lima, Andre; Anderson, Liana O.; Barbier, Nicolas; Saatchi, Sassan

2010-05-01

This paper aims to provide an overview of our recent findings on the interplay between climate and land use dynamics in defining fire patterns in Amazonia. Understanding these relationships is currently a fundamental concern for assessing the vulnerability of Amazonia to climate change and its potential for mitigating current increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases. Reducing carbon emissions from tropical deforestation and forest degradation (REDD), for instance, could contribute to a cumulative emission reduction of 13-50 billion tons of carbon (GtC) by 2100. In Amazonia, though, forest fires can release similar quantities of carbon to the atmosphere (~0.2 GtC yr-1) as deforestation alone. Therefore, to achieve carbon savings through REDD mechanism there is an urgent need of understanding and subsequently restraining related Amazonian fire drivers. In this study, we analyze satellite-derived monthly and annual time-series of fires, rainfall and deforestation in Amazonia to: (1) quantify the seasonal patterns and relationships between these variables; (2) quantify fire and rainfall anomalies to evaluate the impact of recent drought on fire patterns; (3) quantify recent trends in fire and deforestation to understand how land use affects fire patterns in Amazonia. Our results demonstrate a marked seasonality of fires. The majority of fires occurs along the Arc of Deforestation, the expanding agricultural frontier in southern and eastern Amazonia, indicating humans are the major ignition sources determining fire seasonality, spatial distribution and long-term patterns. There is a marked seasonality of fires, which is highly correlated (p<0.05) with monthly rainfall and deforestation rates. Deforestation and fires reach their highest values three and six months, respectively, after the peak of the rainy season. This result clearly describes the impact of major human activities on fire incidence, which is generally characterized by the slash-and-burn of Amazonian

NCEP-ECPC monthly to seasonal US fire danger forecasts

Treesearch

J. Roads; P. Tripp; H. Juang; J. Wang; F. Fujioka; S. Chen

2010-01-01

Five National Fire Danger Rating System indices (including the Ignition Component, Energy Release Component, Burning Index, Spread Component, and the Keetch–Byram Drought Index) and the Fosberg Fire Weather Index are used to characterise US fire danger. These fire danger indices and input meteorological variables, including temperature, relative humidity, precipitation...

Thinning, tree-growth, and resistance to multi-year drought in a mixed-conifer forest of northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vernon, Michael J.; Sherriff, Rosemary L.; van Mantgem, Phillip; Kane, Jeffrey M.

2018-01-01

Drought is an important stressor in forest ecosystems that can influence tree vigor and survival. In the U.S., forest managers use two primary management techniques to promote resistance and resilience to drought: prescribed fire and mechanical thinning. Generally applied to reduce fuels and fire hazard, treatments may also reduce competition for resources that may improve tree-growth and reduce mortality during drought. A recent severe and prolonged drought in California provided a natural experiment to investigate tree-growth responses to fuel treatments and climatic stress. We assessed tree-growth from 299 ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) in treated and untreated stands during severe drought from 2012 to 2015 in the mixed-conifer forests of Whiskeytown National Recreation Area (WNRA) in northern California. The treatment implemented at WNRA removed 34% of live basal area through mechanical thinning with a subsequent pile burning of residual fuels. Tree-growth was positively associated with crown ratio and negatively associated with competition and a 1-year lag of climate water deficit, an index of drought. Douglas-fir generally had higher annual growth than ponderosa pine, although factors affecting growth were the same for both species. Drought resistance, expressed as the ratio between mean growth during drought and mean growth pre-drought, was higher in treated stands compared to untreated stands during both years of severe drought (2014 and 2015) for ponderosa pine but only one year (2014) for Douglas-fir. Thinning improved drought resistance, but tree size, competition and species influenced this response. On-going thinning treatments focused on fuels and fire hazard reduction are likely to be effective at promoting growth and greater drought resistance in dry mixed-conifer forests. Given the likelihood of future droughts, land managers may choose to implement similar treatments to reduce potential impacts.

2015 Indonesian fire activity and smoke pollution show persistent non-linear sensitivity to El Niño-induced drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Field, R. D.; van der Werf, G.; Fanin, T.; Fetzer, E. J.; Fuller, R. A.; Jethva, H. T.; Levy, R. C.; Livesey, N. J.; Luo, M.; Torres, O.; Worden, H. M.

2016-12-01

The 2015 fire season and related smoke pollution in Indonesia was more severe than the major 2006 episode, making it the most severe season observed by the NASA Earth Observing System satellites that go back to the early 2000s, namely active fire detections from the Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS), MODIS aerosol optical depth, Terra Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) carbon monoxide (CO), Aqua Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) CO, Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aerosol index, and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) CO. The MLS CO in the upper troposphere showed a plume of pollution stretching from East Africa to the western Pacific Ocean that persisted for two months. Longer-term records of airport visibility in Sumatra and Kalimantan show that 2015 ranked after 1997 and alongside 1991 and 1994 as among the worst episodes on record. Analysis of yearly dry season rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and rain gauges shows that, due to the continued use of fire to clear and prepare land on degraded peat, the Indonesian fire environment continues to have non-linear sensitivity to dry conditions during prolonged periods with less than 4mm/day of precipitation, and this sensitivity appears to have increased over Kalimantan. Without significant reforms in land use and the adoption of early warning triggers tied to precipitation forecasts, these intense fire episodes will re-occur during future droughts, usually associated with El Niño events. Characterization of this signifcant event was only possible with EOS data, from the A-train instruments especially.

Demand surge following earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olsen, Anna H.

2012-01-01

Demand surge is understood to be a socio-economic phenomenon where repair costs for the same damage are higher after large- versus small-scale natural disasters. It has reportedly increased monetary losses by 20 to 50%. In previous work, a model for the increased costs of reconstruction labor and materials was developed for hurricanes in the Southeast United States. The model showed that labor cost increases, rather than the material component, drove the total repair cost increases, and this finding could be extended to earthquakes. A study of past large-scale disasters suggested that there may be additional explanations for demand surge. Two such explanations specific to earthquakes are the exclusion of insurance coverage for earthquake damage and possible concurrent causation of damage from an earthquake followed by fire or tsunami. Additional research into these aspects might provide a better explanation for increased monetary losses after large- vs. small-scale earthquakes.

Fire-climate interactions in the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness area

Treesearch

Kurt F. Kipfmueller; Thomas W. Swetnam

2000-01-01

Tree-ring reconstructed summer drought was examined in relation to the occurrence of 15 fires in the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness Area (SBW). The ten largest fire years between 1880 and 1995 were selected from historical fire atlas data; five additional fire years were selected from a fire history completed in a subalpine forest within the SBW. Results of the analysis...

A Mega-fire event in Central Russia: fire weather, radiative, and optical properties of the atmosphere, and consequences for subboreal forest plants

Treesearch

Nataly Y. Chubarova; Nickolay G. Prilepsky; Alexei N. Rublev; Allen R. Riebau

2009-01-01

In 2002, a major drought and prolonged high temperatures occurred in central Russia that resulted in unprecedented wildland fires. These fires occurred under extreme fire danger conditions and were impossible for the Russian authorities to extinguish. It is perhaps somewhat unique that the fires were first burning peat bogs and later forests, causing very massive smoke...

NASA helicopter helps fight fire at KSC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2000-01-01

A NASA helicopter drops water from a special '''bucket''' onto a small fire on Kennedy Space Center grounds. The site is between Kennedy Parkway North and the Indian River. The fire is one of many throughout Central Florida, which is suffering from drought.

NASA helicopter helps fight fire at KSC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2000-01-01

A NASA helicopter takes off to bring water to fight a small fire on Kennedy Space Center grounds. The site is between Kennedy Parkway North and the Indian River. The fire is one of many throughout Central Florida, which is suffering from drought.

An assessment of three measures of long-term moisture deficiency before critical fire periods.

Treesearch

Donald A. Haines; Von J. Johnson; William A. Main

1976-01-01

Values of the Palmer Drought Index, the Keetch-Byram Drought Index, and a Buildup Index are calculated for 26 critical fires situations in the north-central and north-eastern states. The paper examines the response characteristics of these indexes, representative of different moisture regimes, relative to fire danger.

POST Earthquake Debris Management - AN Overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarkar, Raju

Every year natural disasters, such as fires, floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, landslides, tsunami, and tornadoes, challenge various communities of the world. Earthquakes strike with varying degrees of severity and pose both short- and long-term challenges to public service providers. Earthquakes generate shock waves and displace the ground along fault lines. These seismic forces can bring down buildings and bridges in a localized area and damage buildings and other structures in a far wider area. Secondary damage from fires, explosions, and localized flooding from broken water pipes can increase the amount of debris. Earthquake debris includes building materials, personal property, and sediment from landslides. The management of this debris, as well as the waste generated during the reconstruction works, can place significant challenges on the national and local capacities. Debris removal is a major component of every post earthquake recovery operation. Much of the debris generated from earthquake is not hazardous. Soil, building material, and green waste, such as trees and shrubs, make up most of the volume of earthquake debris. These wastes not only create significant health problems and a very unpleasant living environment if not disposed of safely and appropriately, but also can subsequently impose economical burdens on the reconstruction phase. In practice, most of the debris may be either disposed of at landfill sites, reused as materials for construction or recycled into useful commodities Therefore, the debris clearance operation should focus on the geotechnical engineering approach as an important post earthquake issue to control the quality of the incoming flow of potential soil materials. In this paper, the importance of an emergency management perspective in this geotechnical approach that takes into account the different criteria related to the operation execution is proposed by highlighting the key issues concerning the handling of the construction

Characterization of the Fire Regime and Drivers of Fires in the West African Tropical Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwomoh, F. K.; Wimberly, M. C.

2016-12-01

The Upper Guinean forest (UGF), encompassing the tropical regions of West Africa, is a globally significant biodiversity hotspot and a critically important socio-economic and ecological resource for the region. However, the UGF is one of the most human-disturbed tropical forest ecosystems with the only remaining large patches of original forests distributed in protected areas, which are embedded in a hotspot of climate stress & land use pressures, increasing their vulnerability to fire. We hypothesized that human impacts and climate interact to drive spatial and temporal variability in fire, with fire exhibiting distinctive seasonality and sensitivity to drought in areas characterized by different population densities, agricultural practices, vegetation types, and levels of forest degradation. We used the MODIS active fire product to identify and characterize fire activity in the major ecoregions of the UGF. We used TRMM rainfall data to measure climatic variability and derived indicators of human land use from a variety of geospatial datasets. We employed time series modeling to identify the influences of drought indices and other antecedent climatic indicators on temporal patterns of active fire occurrence. We used a variety of modeling approaches to assess the influences of human activities and land cover variables on the spatial pattern of fire activity. Our results showed that temporal patterns of fire activity in the UGF were related to precipitation, but these relationships were spatially heterogeneous. The pattern of fire seasonality varied geographically, reflecting both climatological patterns and agricultural practices. The spatial pattern of fire activity was strongly associated with vegetation gradients and anthropogenic activities occurring at fine spatial scales. The Guinean forest-savanna mosaic ecoregion had the most fires. This study contributes to our understanding of UGF fire regime and the spatio-temporal dynamics of tropical forest fires in

Recent changes and relations among drought, vegetation and wildfires in the Eastern Mediterranean: The case of Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turco, Marco; Levin, Noam; Tessler, Naama; Saaroni, Hadas

2017-04-01

On-going changes in drought, vegetation and wildfires in Israel provide a key example of possible future evolution in transition areas at the border between Mediterranean and arid climates. Here we present multiple lines of evidence suggesting that drought conditions in Israel, representing the eastern Mediterranean, have increased during the period 1980-2014. Drought conditions were calculated using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI). A 30-year series (1982-2011) of monthly Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) indicates generally positive trends in winter and spring and negative ones in summer and autumn, except in the transition zone between the southern Negev desert and the Mediterranean climate region, where a statistically significant negative trend in all seasons was found. Available ground observations suggest that fire activity has decreased during the period 1987-2011. Apparent year-to-year oscillations are superposed onto these long-term trends. We show that inter-annual variability of summer fires is related to antecedent wet conditions and to above normal vegetation conditions. These relationships suggest the summer fires in Israel are mainly limited by fuel availability rather than by fuel flammability. On the other hand, the year-to-year variations of spring and autumn fires are significantly related with drought indices. Thus, the increase of drought conditions together with climate projections for further warming and drying in this region, point at a potential increase of fire risk in the intermediate seasons.

Climate and human influences on historical fire regimes (AD 1400-1900) in the eastern Great Basin (USA)

Treesearch

Stanley G. Kitchen

2015-01-01

High fire activity in western North America is associated with drought. Drought and fire prevail under negative El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phases in the Southwest and with positive phases in the Northwest. Here, I infer climate effects on historic fire patterns in the geographically intermediate, eastern Great...

Managing the unexpected in prescribed fire and fire use operations: a workshop on the High Reliability Organization

Treesearch

Paul (tech. ed.) Keller

2004-01-01

Fire management, and forest and rangeland fuels management, over the past century have altered the wildland fire situation dramatically, thus also altering the institutional approach to how to deal with the changing landscape. Also, climate change, extended drought, increased insect and disease outbreaks, and invasions of exotic plant species have added complications...

Contribution of Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies to the Ongoing California Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, L.; Apps, D.; Arcand, S. E.

2015-12-01

The ongoing multiyear drought over California is a major concern for the residents of the golden state as it brings water restrictions in preparing for water shortages and wild fires due to dry and hot conditions. Both positive temperature and negative precipitation anomalies can contribute to drought developments, but how important are these anomalies for the ongoing California drought? Using the VIC hydrological model, this study investigated the relative contribution of temperature and precipitation anomalies to the ongoing 2011-2015 drought in comparison with another multiyear drought between 1987 and 1992 over the same region. By swapping the observed temperature and precipitation anomalies between two drought events, the study was able to show how temperature and precipitation anomalies and their spatial variability affect other elements of the hydrological cycle including evapotranspiration, soil moisture and streamflow, thus the severity of the drought. The comparison between these two events helps to reveal the unique characteristics of the current drought and provides useful insights for drought prediction and mitigation.

Characteristics of Borneo and Sumatra fire plume heights and smoke clouds and their impact on regional El Niño-induced drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tosca, Michael; Randerson, James; Zender, Charles; Flanner, Mark; Nelson, David; Diner, David; Rasch, Phil; Logan, Jennifer

2010-05-01

During the dry season, anthropogenic fires burn the tropical forests and peatlands of equatorial Asia and produce regionally expansive smoke clouds. We estimated the altitude of smoke from these fires, characterized the sensitivity of this smoke to regional drought and El Niño variability, and investigated its effect on climate. We used the MISR satellite product and MISR INteractive eXplorer (MINX) software to estimate the heights of 382 smoke plumes (smoke with a visible surface source and transport direction) on Borneo and 121 plumes on Sumatra for 2001-2009. In addition, we estimated the altitudes of 10 smoke clouds (opaque regions of smoke with no detectable surface source or transport direction) on Borneo for 2006. Most smoke plumes (80%) were observed during El Niño events (2002, 2004, 2006, 2009); this is consistent with higher aerosol optical depths observed during El Niño-induced drought. Annually averaged plume heights on Borneo were positively correlated to the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), an indicator of El Niño (r2 = 0.53). The mean plume height for all El Niño years was 765.8 ± 19.7m, compared to 711.4 ± 28.7 for non-El Niño years. The median altitude of all 10 smoke clouds observed on Borneo during 2006 was 1313m, compared to a median 787m for smoke plume grid cells. The area covered by all smoke plumes from 2006 corresponded to approximately three individual smoke clouds. We investigated the climate response to these expansive smoke clouds using the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Climate variables from two 30 year simulations were compared: one simulation was forced with fire emissions typical of a dry (El Niño) burning year, while the other was forced with emissions typical of a low (La Niña) burning year. Fire aerosols reduced net shortwave radiation at the surface during August-October by an average of 10% in the region encompassing most of Sumatra and Borneo (90°E-120°E, 5°S-5°N). The reductions in net radiation cooled both ocean

The Influence of Large-Scale Circulation on Fire Outbreaks in the Amazon Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pires, L. B. M.; Romao, M.; Freitas, A. C. V.

2017-12-01

The combination of alterations in land use cover and severe droughts may dramatically increase fire outbreaks. Tropical convection in the Amazon Basin is regulated mainly by large-scale atmospheric systems such as the Walker circulation. Many of the documented drought episodes in the Amazon occurred during intense El Niño events such as those recorded in 1926, 1983, 1997-1998, and 2010. However, not all El Niño events are related to drought in the Amazon. Recent studies have also pointed out the importance of the tropical Atlantic Ocean in the modulation of the Amazonian climate, as observed during the drought episodes in 2005 and 2010. This work investigates the fire outbreak tendency in the Amazon region, and the influence of large-scale circulation on these events. Data from the Fire Program of the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC/INPE) show a substantial increase in the number of fire outbreaks in the last few years, especially during 2016. However, in the 2017 year a sharp drop in fire outbreaks reaching levels similar to the years prior to 2016 is being noted, already showing a reduction of 54% in relation to the preceding 2016 year. The 2015-2016 period was marked by one of the strongest El Niño in history. This was reflected in the increase of the number of fire outbreaks due to the increase of the drought and temperature elevation period. On the other hand, the 2017 year is being characterized by a condition of neutrality in relation to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena, and have overall presented positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Atlantic. Variations of these systems and their relation to fire outbreaks is demonstrated.

Development of the science of mass casualty incident management: reflection on the medical response to the Wenchuan earthquake and Hangzhou bus fire*

PubMed Central

Shen, Wei-feng; Jiang, Li-bing; Jiang, Guan-yu; Zhang, Mao; Ma, Yue-feng; He, Xiao-jun

2014-01-01

Objective: In this paper, we review the previous classic research paradigms of a mass casualty incident (MCI) systematically and reflect the medical response to the Wenchuan earthquake and Hangzhou bus fire, in order to outline and develop an improved research paradigm for MCI management. Methods: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, China Wanfang, and China Biology Medicine (CBM) databases for relevant studies. The following key words and medical subject headings were used: ‘mass casualty incident’, ‘MCI’, ‘research method’, ‘Wenchuan’, ‘earthquake’, ‘research paradigm’, ‘science of surge’, ‘surge’, ‘surge capacity’, and ‘vulnerability’. Searches were performed without year or language restriction. After searching the four literature databases using the above listed key words and medical subject headings, related articles containing research paradigms of MCI, 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, July 5 bus fire, and science of surge and vulnerability were independently included by two authors. Results: The current progresses on MCI management include new golden hour, damage control philosophy, chain of survival, and three links theory. In addition, there are three evaluation methods (medical severity index (MSI), potential injury creating event (PICE) classification, and disaster severity scale (DSS)), which can dynamically assess the MCI situations and decisions for MCI responses and can be made based on the results of such evaluations. However, the three methods only offer a retrospective evaluation of MCI and thus fail to develop a real-time assessment of MCI responses. Therefore, they cannot be used as practical guidance for decision-making during MCI. Although the theory of surge science has made great improvements, we found that a very important factor has been ignored—vulnerability, based on reflecting on the MCI response to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and July 5 bus fire in Hangzhou. Conclusions: This new paradigm breaks through the

Earthquake damage to transportation systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCullough, Heather

1994-01-01

Earthquakes represent one of the most destructive natural hazards known to man. A large magnitude earthquake near a populated area can affect residents over thousands of square kilometers and cause billions of dollars in property damage. Such an event can kill or injure thousands of residents and disrupt the socioeconomic environment for months, sometimes years. A serious result of a large-magnitude earthquake is the disruption of transportation systems, which limits post-disaster emergency response. Movement of emergency vehicles, such as police cars, fire trucks and ambulances, is often severely restricted. Damage to transportation systems is categorized below by cause including: ground failure, faulting, vibration damage, and tsunamis.

Military Contributions to Rescue and Relief During the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake and the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iversen, E. H.

2006-12-01

In both the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake and Fire and the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake the military has played a significant role in rescue and relief operations. This paper focuses on the work done by the Army at the Presidio of San Francisco and gives briefer accounts of the work done by other installations and services. The role the Army played in 1989 is compared and contrasted to the role it played in the 1906 Earthquake and Fire. One of the most striking points is that in both cases the city of San Francisco never included military aid in planning but also did not refuse it. Due to the reduction of the Department of Defense budget the Presidio of San Francisco was transferred to the National Park Service on October 1, 1994. Almost all other San Francisco Bay area military installations have been closed with the exception of those belonging to the Coast Guard. Considering the important role the military has played in the 1906 and 1989 earthquakes there is concern as to how the cities of the Bay Area will cope when the earth shakes the next time.

Napa Earthquake impact on water systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.

2014-12-01

South Napa earthquake occurred in Napa, California on August 24 at 3am, local time, and the magnitude is 6.0. The earthquake was the largest in SF Bay Area since the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. Economic loss topped $ 1 billion. Wine makers cleaning up and estimated the damage on tourism. Around 15,000 cases of lovely cabernet were pouring into the garden at the Hess Collection. Earthquake potentially raise water pollution risks, could cause water crisis. CA suffered water shortage recent years, and it could be helpful on how to prevent underground/surface water pollution from earthquake. This research gives a clear view on drinking water system in CA, pollution on river systems, as well as estimation on earthquake impact on water supply. The Sacramento-San Joaquin River delta (close to Napa), is the center of the state's water distribution system, delivering fresh water to more than 25 million residents and 3 million acres of farmland. Delta water conveyed through a network of levees is crucial to Southern California. The drought has significantly curtailed water export, and salt water intrusion reduced fresh water outflows. Strong shaking from a nearby earthquake can cause saturated, loose, sandy soils liquefaction, and could potentially damage major delta levee systems near Napa. Napa earthquake is a wake-up call for Southern California. It could potentially damage freshwater supply system.

Impact of drought on wildfires in Iberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, Ana; Gouveia, Célia M.; DaCamara, Carlos; Sousa, Pedro; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2015-04-01

Southern European countries, and the Iberian Peninsula (IP) in particular, have been vastly affected by summer wildfires (Trigo et al., 2013). This condition is hampered by the frequent warm and dry meteorological conditions found in summer which play a significant role in the triggering and spreading of wildfires. These meteorological conditions are also particularly important for the onset and end of drought periods, a phenomenon that has recurrently affected the IP (Gouveia et al., 2012). Moreover, the IP corresponds to one of the most sensitive areas to current and future climate change, and recent and future trends towards a dryer and warmer Mediterranean climate (Sousa et al., 2014) will tend to exacerbate these problems. The main scope of this study was to investigate the impact of drought on wildfires' burned areas in the IP. The objective was to examine the correlation between drought, as expressed by both the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010), and wildfire burned areas. The SPI and SPEI were both calculated for 4 large regions (Northwestern, Northern, Southwestern and Eastern) whose spatial patterns and seasonal fire regimes were shown to be related with constraining factors such as topography, vegetation cover and climate conditions (Trigo et al., 2013). In this study, the drought indices were determined for the time scales of 3 and 6 months for August and for 12 months in September, thus representing the summer and annual drought. The correlation between drought and burned areas during July and August was particularly significant for the 3 months SPEI and SPI relatively to the 6 and 12 time scales, which indicates that drought and fires relation is a small-size scale process. Moreover, the correlation between drought and burned areas during July and August was particularly significant for the Northern and Southwestern regions both for SPEI for 3 and 6

Heightened fire risk in Indonesia in response to increasing temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, K.; Baethgen, W.; Verchot, L. V.; Gutierrez-Velez, V.; Pinedo-Vasquez, M.

2016-12-01

In Indonesia, drought driven fires occur typically during the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as those of 1997 and 2015 that resulted in months-long hazardous atmospheric pollution levels in Equatorial Asia and record greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless, anomalously active fire seasons have also been observed in non-drought years. In this work, we investigated whether fires are impacted by temperature anomalies and if so, if the responses differ under contrasting precipitation regimes. Our findings show that when the July-October dry-season is anomalously dry, the sensitivity of fires to temperature anomalies is similar regardless of the sign of the anomalies. In contrast, in wet condition, fire risk increases sharply when the dry season is anomalously warm. We also present a characterization of near-term regional climate projections over the next few decades and the implications of continuing global temperature increase in future fire probability in Indonesia.

Depopulation of rural landscapes exacerbates fire activity in the western Amazon.

PubMed

Uriarte, María; Pinedo-Vasquez, Miquel; DeFries, Ruth S; Fernandes, Katia; Gutierrez-Velez, Victor; Baethgen, Walter E; Padoch, Christine

2012-12-26

Destructive fires in Amazonia have occurred in the past decade, leading to forest degradation, carbon emissions, impaired air quality, and property damage. Here, we couple climate, geospatial, and province-level census data, with farmer surveys to examine the climatic, demographic, and land use factors associated with fire frequency in the Peruvian Amazon from 2000 to 2010. Although our results corroborate previous findings elsewhere that drought and proximity to roads increase fire frequency, the province-scale analysis further identifies decreases in rural populations as an additional factor. Farmer survey data suggest that increased burn scar frequency and size reflect increased flammability of emptying rural landscapes and reduced capacity to control fire. With rural populations projected to decline, more frequent drought, and expansion of road infrastructure, fire risk is likely to increase in western Amazonia. Damage from fire can be reduced through warning systems that target high-risk locations, coordinated fire fighting efforts, and initiatives that provide options for people to remain in rural landscapes.

Depopulation of rural landscapes exacerbates fire activity in the western Amazon

PubMed Central

Uriarte, María; Pinedo-Vasquez, Miquel; DeFries, Ruth S.; Fernandes, Katia; Gutierrez-Velez, Victor; Baethgen, Walter E.; Padoch, Christine

2012-01-01

Destructive fires in Amazonia have occurred in the past decade, leading to forest degradation, carbon emissions, impaired air quality, and property damage. Here, we couple climate, geospatial, and province-level census data, with farmer surveys to examine the climatic, demographic, and land use factors associated with fire frequency in the Peruvian Amazon from 2000 to 2010. Although our results corroborate previous findings elsewhere that drought and proximity to roads increase fire frequency, the province-scale analysis further identifies decreases in rural populations as an additional factor. Farmer survey data suggest that increased burn scar frequency and size reflect increased flammability of emptying rural landscapes and reduced capacity to control fire. With rural populations projected to decline, more frequent drought, and expansion of road infrastructure, fire risk is likely to increase in western Amazonia. Damage from fire can be reduced through warning systems that target high-risk locations, coordinated fire fighting efforts, and initiatives that provide options for people to remain in rural landscapes. PMID:23236144

POST Earthquake Debris Management — AN Overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarkar, Raju

Every year natural disasters, such as fires, floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, landslides, tsunami, and tornadoes, challenge various communities of the world. Earthquakes strike with varying degrees of severity and pose both short- and long-term challenges to public service providers. Earthquakes generate shock waves and displace the ground along fault lines. These seismic forces can bring down buildings and bridges in a localized area and damage buildings and other structures in a far wider area. Secondary damage from fires, explosions, and localized flooding from broken water pipes can increase the amount of debris. Earthquake debris includes building materials, personal property, and sediment from landslides. The management of this debris, as well as the waste generated during the reconstruction works, can place significant challenges on the national and local capacities. Debris removal is a major component of every post earthquake recovery operation. Much of the debris generated from earthquake is not hazardous. Soil, building material, and green waste, such as trees and shrubs, make up most of the volume of earthquake debris. These wastes not only create significant health problems and a very unpleasant living environment if not disposed of safely and appropriately, but also can subsequently impose economical burdens on the reconstruction phase. In practice, most of the debris may be either disposed of at landfill sites, reused as materials for construction or recycled into useful commodities Therefore, the debris clearance operation should focus on the geotechnical engineering approach as an important post earthquake issue to control the quality of the incoming flow of potential soil materials. In this paper, the importance of an emergency management perspective in this geotechnical approach that takes into account the different criteria related to the operation execution is proposed by highlighting the key issues concerning the handling of the construction

Scientific, Engineering, and Financial Factors of the 1989 Human-Triggered Newcastle Earthquake in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klose, C. D.

2006-12-01

This presentation emphasizes the dualism of natural resources exploitation and economic growth versus geomechanical pollution and risks of human-triggered earthquakes. Large-scale geoengineering activities, e.g., mining, reservoir impoundment, oil/gas production, water exploitation or fluid injection, alter pre-existing lithostatic stress states in the earth's crust and are anticipated to trigger earthquakes. Such processes of in- situ stress alteration are termed geomechanical pollution. Moreover, since the 19th century more than 200 earthquakes have been documented worldwide with a seismic moment magnitude of 4.5earthquakes increased rapidly. An example of a human-triggered earthquake is the 1989 Newcastle event in Australia that was a result of almost 200 years of coal mining and water over-exploitation, respectively. This earthquake, an Mw=5.6 event, caused more than 3.5 billion U.S. dollars in damage (1989 value) and was responsible for Australia's first and only to date earthquake fatalities. It is therefore thought that, the Newcastle region tends to develop unsustainably if comparing economic growth due to mining and financial losses of triggered earthquakes. An hazard assessment, based on a geomechanical crust model, shows that only four deep coal mines were responsible for triggering this severe earthquake. A small-scale economic risk assessment identifies that the financial loss due to earthquake damage has reduced mining profits that have been re-invested in the Newcastle region for over two centuries beginning in 1801. Furthermore, large-scale economic risk assessment reveals that the financial loss is equivalent to 26% of the Australian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 1988/89. These costs account for 13% of the total costs of all natural disasters (e.g., flooding, drought, wild fires) and 94% of the costs of all

Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Wildfire–climate interactions

Treesearch

Yongqiang Liu; Scott Goodrick; Warren Heilman

2014-01-01

Increasing wildfire activity in recent decades, partially related to extended droughts, along with concern over potential impacts of future climate change on fire activity has resulted in increased attention on fire–climate interactions. Findings from studies published in recent years have remarkably increased our understanding of fire–climate interactions and improved...

The Oakland-Berkeley Hills fire of 1991

Treesearch

P. Lamont Ewell

1995-01-01

Sunday, October 20, 1991, will be remembered as the date of America’s most costly urban-wildland fire (FEMA 1992) and one of the worst fires involving loss of life and property since the Great San Francisco Earthquake and Fire of 1906 (OFD 1992). The magnitude and range of what is simply referred to as the “Tunnel Fire” is far beyond the experience of any living...

Computing Earthquake Probabilities on Global Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holliday, James R.; Graves, William R.; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.

2016-03-01

Large devastating events in systems such as earthquakes, typhoons, market crashes, electricity grid blackouts, floods, droughts, wars and conflicts, and landslides can be unexpected and devastating. Events in many of these systems display frequency-size statistics that are power laws. Previously, we presented a new method for calculating probabilities for large events in systems such as these. This method counts the number of small events since the last large event and then converts this count into a probability by using a Weibull probability law. We applied this method to the calculation of large earthquake probabilities in California-Nevada, USA. In that study, we considered a fixed geographic region and assumed that all earthquakes within that region, large magnitudes as well as small, were perfectly correlated. In the present article, we extend this model to systems in which the events have a finite correlation length. We modify our previous results by employing the correlation function for near mean field systems having long-range interactions, an example of which is earthquakes and elastic interactions. We then construct an application of the method and show examples of computed earthquake probabilities.

Management of south Texas shrublands with prescribed fire

Treesearch

C. Wayne Hanselka; D. Lynn Drawe; D.C. III Ruthven

2007-01-01

The Rio Grande Plains (RGP) and Coastal Prairie (CP) of South Texas is the southernmost extension of the Great Plains Grasslands. Fire, along with other climatic variables, such as drought, presumably maintained mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa Torr.) savannas and interspersed grasslands of pre- European settlement South Texas. Frequency of fire...

Human amplification of drought-driven fire in tropical regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tosca, Michael

2015-04-01

The change in globally-measured radiative forcing from the pre-industrial to the present due to interactions between aerosol particles and cloud cover has the largest uncertainty of all anthropogenic factors. Uncertainties are largest in the tropics, where total cloud amount and incoming solar radiation are highest, and where 50% of all aerosol emissions originate from anthropogenic fire. It is well understood that interactions between smoke particles and cloud droplets modify cloud cover , which in turn affects climate, however, few studies have observed the temporal nature of aerosol-cloud interactions without the use of a model. Here we apply a novel approach to measure the effect of fire aerosols on convective clouds in tropical regions (Brazil, Africa and Indonesia) through a combination of remote sensing and meteorological data. We attribute a reduction in cloud fraction during periods of high aerosol optical depths to a smoke-driven inhibition of convection. We find that higher smoke burdens limit vertical updrafts, increase surface pressure, and increase low- level divergence-meteorological indicators of convective suppression. These results are corroborated by climate model simulations that show a smoke-driven increase in regionally averaged shortwave tropospheric heating and boundary layer stratification, and a decrease in vertical velocity and precipitation during the fire season (December-February). We then quantify the human response to decreased cloud cover using a combination of socioeconomic and climate data Our results suggest that, in tropical regions, anthropogenic fire initiates a positive feedback loop where increased aerosol emissions limit convection, dry the surface and enable increased fire activity via human ignition. This result has far-reaching implications for fire management and climate policy in emerging countries along the equator that utilize fire.

Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: Will area burned increase in a warming western USA?

PubMed

McKenzie, Donald; Littell, Jeremy S

2017-01-01

Wildfire area is predicted to increase with global warming. Empirical statistical models and process-based simulations agree almost universally. The key relationship for this unanimity, observed at multiple spatial and temporal scales, is between drought and fire. Predictive models often focus on ecosystems in which this relationship appears to be particularly strong, such as mesic and arid forests and shrublands with substantial biomass such as chaparral. We examine the drought-fire relationship, specifically the correlations between water-balance deficit and annual area burned, across the full gradient of deficit in the western USA, from temperate rainforest to desert. In the middle of this gradient, conditional on vegetation (fuels), correlations are strong, but outside this range the equivalence hotter and drier equals more fire either breaks down or is contingent on other factors such as previous-year climate. This suggests that the regional drought-fire dynamic will not be stationary in future climate, nor will other more complex contingencies associated with the variation in fire extent. Predictions of future wildfire area therefore need to consider not only vegetation changes, as some dynamic vegetation models now do, but also potential changes in the drought-fire dynamic that will ensue in a warming climate. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Tree mortality following a drought-year lightning ignition in the Ouachita Mountains, Arkansas: 2 years postburn

Treesearch

Virginia L. McDaniel; James M. Guldin; Nancy E. Koerth; Jason E. Milks; Rebecca J. Finzer; Ben F. Rowland

2016-01-01

Increasingly, fire managers are using natural ignitions in conjunction with prescribed burns to restore and maintain fire-adapted ecosystems. Increased fuel loading from fire suppression and increasing drought indices associated with climate change, however, may cause natural ignitions to burn with greater intensity and severity. Managers must weigh risk factors versus...

Diversity in Southwesterners' views of Forest Service fire management

Treesearch

P.L. Winter; G.T. Cvetkovich

2007-01-01

The risk of wildland fires is of significant concern in the southwestern United States. Although the Southwest has a long hi story as a fire· prone ecosystem, years of drought and insect infestation have increased fire risk. Paired with these ecological forces is the increased risk caused by the concentration of populations in the wildland urban interface (WUl),...

Interactions between rainfall, deforestation and fires during recent years in the Brazilian Amazonia.

PubMed

Aragão, Luiz Eduardo O C; Malhi, Yadvinder; Barbier, Nicolas; Lima, Andre; Shimabukuro, Yosio; Anderson, Liana; Saatchi, Sassan

2008-05-27

Understanding the interplay between climate and land-use dynamics is a fundamental concern for assessing the vulnerability of Amazonia to climate change. In this study, we analyse satellite-derived monthly and annual time series of rainfall, fires and deforestation to explicitly quantify the seasonal patterns and relationships between these three variables, with a particular focus on the Amazonian drought of 2005. Our results demonstrate a marked seasonality with one peak per year for all variables analysed, except deforestation. For the annual cycle, we found correlations above 90% with a time lag between variables. Deforestation and fires reach the highest values three and six months, respectively, after the peak of the rainy season. The cumulative number of hot pixels was linearly related to the size of the area deforested annually from 1998 to 2004 (r2=0.84, p=0.004). During the 2005 drought, the number of hot pixels increased 43% in relation to the expected value for a similar deforested area (approx. 19000km2). We demonstrated that anthropogenic forcing, such as land-use change, is decisive in determining the seasonality and annual patterns of fire occurrence. Moreover, droughts can significantly increase the number of fires in the region even with decreased deforestation rates. We may expect that the ongoing deforestation, currently based on slash and burn procedures, and the use of fires for land management in Amazonia will intensify the impact of droughts associated with natural climate variability or human-induced climate change and, therefore, a large area of forest edge will be under increased risk of fires.

Climate change and fire danger rating in the Northern Rockies

Treesearch

Faith Ann Heinsch; Charles W. McHugh

2010-01-01

Studies have indicated that changes in wildland fire activity are, at least in part, a product of climate change. Fire danger indices, driven by climatology, should reflect these changes. Energy Release Component (ERC) is considered to be an effective indicator of drought conditions and seasonal drying of forest fuels and is often used in fire management planning....

Dynamics of stem water uptake among isohydric and anisohydric species experiencing a severe drought

Treesearch

Koong Yi; Danilo Dragoni; Richard P. Phillips; Daniel Tyler Roman; Kimberly A. Novick

2017-01-01

Predicting the impact of drought on forest ecosystem processes requires an understanding of trees' species-specific responses to drought, especially in the Eastern USA, where species composition is highly dynamic due to historical changes in land use and fire regime. Here, we adapted a framework that classifies trees' water-use strategy along the spectrum of...

Earthquakes: Recurrence and Interoccurrence Times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abaimov, S. G.; Turcotte, D. L.; Shcherbakov, R.; Rundle, J. B.; Yakovlev, G.; Goltz, C.; Newman, W. I.

2008-04-01

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the statistical distributions of recurrence times of earthquakes. Recurrence times are the time intervals between successive earthquakes at a specified location on a specified fault. Although a number of statistical distributions have been proposed for recurrence times, we argue in favor of the Weibull distribution. The Weibull distribution is the only distribution that has a scale-invariant hazard function. We consider three sets of characteristic earthquakes on the San Andreas fault: (1) The Parkfield earthquakes, (2) the sequence of earthquakes identified by paleoseismic studies at the Wrightwood site, and (3) an example of a sequence of micro-repeating earthquakes at a site near San Juan Bautista. In each case we make a comparison with the applicable Weibull distribution. The number of earthquakes in each of these sequences is too small to make definitive conclusions. To overcome this difficulty we consider a sequence of earthquakes obtained from a one million year “Virtual California” simulation of San Andreas earthquakes. Very good agreement with a Weibull distribution is found. We also obtain recurrence statistics for two other model studies. The first is a modified forest-fire model and the second is a slider-block model. In both cases good agreements with Weibull distributions are obtained. Our conclusion is that the Weibull distribution is the preferred distribution for estimating the risk of future earthquakes on the San Andreas fault and elsewhere.

The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics, structure, and biodiversity in the United States

Treesearch

James S. Clark; Louis Iverson; Christopher W. Woodall; Craig D. Allen; David M. Bell; Don C. Bragg; Anthony W. D' Amato; Frank W. Davis; Michelle H. Hersh; Ines Ibanez; Stephen T. Jackson; Stephen Matthews; Neil Pederson; Matthew Peters; Mark W. Schwartz; Kristen M. Waring; Niklaus E. Zimmermann

2016-01-01

We synthesize insights from current understanding of drought impacts at stand-to-biogeographic scales, including management options, and we identify challenges to be addressed with new research. Large stand-level shifts underway in western forests already are showing the importance of interactions involving drought, insects, and fire. Diebacks, changes in composition...

The North American Drought Atlas: Tree-Ring Reconstructions of Drought Variability for Climate Modeling and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, E. R.

2007-05-01

The North American Drought Atlas describes a detailed reconstruction of drought variability from tree rings over most of North America for the past 500-1000 years. The first version of it, produced over three years ago, was based on a network of 835 tree-ring chronologies and a 286-point grid of instrumental Palmer Drought Severity Indices (PDSI). These gridded PDSI reconstructions have been used in numerous published studies now that range from modeling fire in the American West, to the impact of drought on palaeo-Indian societies, and to the determination of the primary causes of drought over North America through climate modeling experiments. Some examples of these applications will be described to illustrate the scientific value of these large-scale reconstructions of drought. Since the development and free public release of Version 1 of the North American Drought Atlas (see http:iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.LDEO/.TRL/.NADA2004/.pdsi-atlas.html), great improvements have been made in the critical tree-ring network used to reconstruct PDSI at each grid point. This network has now been enlarged to 1743 annual tree-ring chronologies, which greatly improves the density of tree-ring records in certain parts of the grid, especially in Canada and Mexico. In addition, the number of tree-ring records that extend back before AD 1400 has been substantially increased. These developments justify the creation of Version 2 of the North American Drought Atlas. In this talk I will describe this new version of the drought atlas and some of its properties that make it a significant improvement over the previous version. The new product provides enhanced resolution of the spatial and temporal variability of prolonged drought such as the late 16th century event that impacted regions of both Mexico and the United States. I will also argue for the North American Drought Atlas being used as a template for the development of large-scale drought reconstructions in other land areas of

Fire history and fire-climate relationships in upper elevation forests of the southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Margolis, Ellis Quinn

Fire history and fire-climate relationships of upper elevation forests of the southwestern United States are imperative for informing management decisions in the face of increased crown fire occurrence and climate change. I used dendroecological techniques to reconstruct fires and stand-replacing fire patch size in the Madrean Sky Islands and Mogollon Plateau. Reconstructed patch size (1685-1904) was compared with contemporary patch size (1996-2004). Reconstructed fires at three sites had stand-replacing patches totaling > 500 ha. No historical stand-replacing fire patches were evident in the mixed conifer/aspen forests of the Sky Islands. Maximum stand-replacing fire patch size of modern fires (1129 ha) was greater than that reconstructed from aspen (286 ha) and spruce-fir (521 ha). Undated spruce-fir patches may be evidence of larger (>2000ha) stand-replacing fire patches. To provide climatological context for fire history I used correlation and regionalization analyses to document spatial and temporal variability in climate regions, and El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) teleconnections using 273 tree-ring chronologies (1732-1979). Four regions were determined by common variability in annual ring width. The component score time series replicate spatial variability in 20th century droughts (e.g., 1950's) and pluvials (e.g., 1910's). Two regions were significantly correlated with instrumental SOI and AMO, and three with PDO. Sub-regions within the southwestern U.S. varied geographically between the instrumental (1900-1979) and the pre-instrumental periods (1732-1899). Mapped correlations between ENSO, PDO and AMO, and tree-ring indices illustrate detailed sub-regional variability in the teleconnections. I analyzed climate teleconnections, and fire-climate relationships of historical upper elevation fires from 16 sites in 8 mountain ranges. I tested for links between Palmer

How Does Drought Change With Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenberth, K. E.

2014-12-01

Large disparities among published studies have led to considerable confusion over the question of how drought is changing and how it is expected to change with global warming. As a result the IPCC AR5 assessment has watered down statements, and failed to carry out an adequate assessment of the sources of the discrepancies. Quite aside from the different definitions of drought related to meteorological (absence of precipitation), hydrological (lack of water in lakes and rivers), and agricultural (lack of soil moisture) drought, there are many indices that measure drought. Good homogeneous datasets are essential to assess changes over time, but are often not available. Simpler indices may miss effects of certain physical processes, such as evapotranspiration (ET). The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) has been much maligned but has considerable merit because it can accommodate different ET formulations (e.g., Thornthwaite vs Penman-Monteith), it can be self calibrating to accommodate different regions, and it carries out a crude moisture balance. This is in contrast to simpler indices, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index, which provides only a measure of moisture supply, or the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, which also includes potential (but not actual) ET. The largest source of drought variations is ENSO: during La Niña more rain falls on land while during El Niño most precipitation is over the Pacific Ocean, exposing more land to drought conditions. It is essential to account for interannual and inter-decadal variability in assessing changes in drought with climate change. Yet drought is one time on land when effects accumulate, with huge consequences for wild fire risk. It is important to ask the right questions in dealing with drought.

Persistent effects of a severe drought on Amazonian forest canopy.

PubMed

Saatchi, Sassan; Asefi-Najafabady, Salvi; Malhi, Yadvinder; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Anderson, Liana O; Myneni, Ranga B; Nemani, Ramakrishna

2013-01-08

Recent Amazonian droughts have drawn attention to the vulnerability of tropical forests to climate perturbations. Satellite and in situ observations have shown an increase in fire occurrence during drought years and tree mortality following severe droughts, but to date there has been no assessment of long-term impacts of these droughts across landscapes in Amazonia. Here, we use satellite microwave observations of rainfall and canopy backscatter to show that more than 70 million hectares of forest in western Amazonia experienced a strong water deficit during the dry season of 2005 and a closely corresponding decline in canopy structure and moisture. Remarkably, and despite the gradual recovery in total rainfall in subsequent years, the decrease in canopy backscatter persisted until the next major drought, in 2010. The decline in backscatter is attributed to changes in structure and water content associated with the forest upper canopy. The persistence of low backscatter supports the slow recovery (>4 y) of forest canopy structure after the severe drought in 2005. The result suggests that the occurrence of droughts in Amazonia at 5-10 y frequency may lead to persistent alteration of the forest canopy.

Persistent effects of a severe drought on Amazonian forest canopy

PubMed Central

Saatchi, Sassan; Asefi-Najafabady, Salvi; Malhi, Yadvinder; Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.; Anderson, Liana O.; Myneni, Ranga B.; Nemani, Ramakrishna

2013-01-01

Recent Amazonian droughts have drawn attention to the vulnerability of tropical forests to climate perturbations. Satellite and in situ observations have shown an increase in fire occurrence during drought years and tree mortality following severe droughts, but to date there has been no assessment of long-term impacts of these droughts across landscapes in Amazonia. Here, we use satellite microwave observations of rainfall and canopy backscatter to show that more than 70 million hectares of forest in western Amazonia experienced a strong water deficit during the dry season of 2005 and a closely corresponding decline in canopy structure and moisture. Remarkably, and despite the gradual recovery in total rainfall in subsequent years, the decrease in canopy backscatter persisted until the next major drought, in 2010. The decline in backscatter is attributed to changes in structure and water content associated with the forest upper canopy. The persistence of low backscatter supports the slow recovery (>4 y) of forest canopy structure after the severe drought in 2005. The result suggests that the occurrence of droughts in Amazonia at 5–10 y frequency may lead to persistent alteration of the forest canopy. PMID:23267086

Towards Remotely Sensed Composite Global Drought Risk Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dercas, Nicholas; Dalezios, Nicolas

2015-04-01

Drought is a multi-faceted issue and requires a multi-faceted assessment. Droughts may have the origin on precipitation deficits, which sequentially and by considering different time and space scales may impact soil moisture, plant wilting, stream flow, wildfire, ground water levels, famine and social impacts. There is a need to monitor drought even at a global scale. Key variables for monitoring drought include climate data, soil moisture, stream flow, ground water, reservoir and lake levels, snow pack, short-medium-long range forecasts, vegetation health and fire danger. However, there is no single definition of drought and there are different drought indicators and indices even for each drought type. There are already four operational global drought risk monitoring systems, namely the U.S. Drought Monitor, the European Drought Observatory (EDO), the African and the Australian systems, respectively. These systems require further research to improve the level of accuracy, the time and space scales, to consider all types of drought and to achieve operational efficiency, eventually. This paper attempts to contribute to the above mentioned objectives. Based on a similar general methodology, the multi-indicator approach is considered. This has resulted from previous research in the Mediterranean region, an agriculturally vulnerable region, using several drought indices separately, namely RDI and VHI. The proposed scheme attempts to consider different space scaling based on agroclimatic zoning through remotely sensed techniques and several indices. Needless to say, the agroclimatic potential of agricultural areas has to be assessed in order to achieve sustainable and efficient use of natural resources in combination with production maximization. Similarly, the time scale is also considered by addressing drought-related impacts affected by precipitation deficits on time scales ranging from a few days to a few months, such as non-irrigated agriculture, topsoil moisture

A Simple Model for the Earthquake Cycle Combining Self-Organized Criticality with Critical Point Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newman, W. I.; Turcotte, D. L.

2002-12-01

We have studied a hybrid model combining the forest-fire model with the site-percolation model in order to better understand the earthquake cycle. We consider a square array of sites. At each time step, a "tree" is dropped on a randomly chosen site and is planted if the site is unoccupied. When a cluster of "trees" spans the site (a percolating cluster), all the trees in the cluster are removed ("burned") in a "fire." The removal of the cluster is analogous to a characteristic earthquake and planting "trees" is analogous to increasing the regional stress. The clusters are analogous to the metastable regions of a fault over which an earthquake rupture can propagate once triggered. We find that the frequency-area statistics of the metastable regions are power-law with a negative exponent of two (as in the forest-fire model). This is analogous to the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of seismicity. This "self-organized critical behavior" can be explained in terms of an inverse cascade of clusters. Individual trees move from small to larger clusters until they are destroyed. This inverse cascade of clusters is self-similar and the power-law distribution of cluster sizes has been shown to have an exponent of two. We have quantified the forecasting of the spanning fires using error diagrams. The assumption that "fires" (earthquakes) are quasi-periodic has moderate predictability. The density of trees gives an improved degree of predictability, while the size of the largest cluster of trees provides a substantial improvement in forecasting a "fire."

Possible Effects of Seasonal Fires on Drought Across the Northern Sub-Saharan African Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ichoku, Charles

2010-01-01

Recent satellite-based studies have revealed that the northern sub-Saharan African (NSSA) region has one of the highest biomass-burning rates per unit land area among all regions of the world. Because of the high concentration and frequency of fires in this region, with the associated abundance of heat release and gaseous and particulate smoke emissions, biomass-burning activity is believed to be a major driver of the regional carbon, energy, and water cycles. We acknowledge that the rainy season in the NSSA region is from April to September while biomass burning occurs mainly during the dry season (October to March). Nevertheless, these two phenomena are indirectly coupled to each other through a chain of complex processes and conditions, including land-cover and surface-albedo changes, the carbon cycle, evapotranspiration, drought, desertification, surface water runoff, ground water recharge, and variability in atmospheric composition, heating rates, and circulation. In this presentation, we will examine the theoretical linkages between these processes, discuss the preliminary results based on satellite data analysis, and provide an overview of plans for more integrated research to be conducted over the next few years.

A Look into the National Drought Mitigation Center: Providing 15 Years of Drought Services (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svoboda, M. D.; Hayes, M. J.; Knutson, C. L.; Wardlow, B. D.

2009-12-01

drought conditions across the United States. It has been used by policy makers to trigger relief programs, by states in their monitoring efforts, and by the media and public through coverage in newspapers and on TV. The DIR has been on-line at the NDMC since 2005; it has more than 14,000 reports and impacts of drought in six basic categories: agriculture, water/energy, environment, fire, social, and other. The most recent activity (currently underway through NOAA funding) is seen in our work with five pilot communities in Illinois, Nebraska, and Oklahoma to establish a new “Drought Ready Community” (DRC) program, developing a community-driven process for integrating place-based planning to reduce vulnerability to drought. Many of these tools have included an extensive iterative process with stakeholders around the country, through means such as workshops, listening sessions, forums, and evaluator networks. The NDMC also serves in an advisory capacity to policy makers and others by providing scientific and policy-relevant information on a variety of drought and water management issues. In moving forward toward a national climate service, the NDMC is well positioned and experienced in helping connect users globally with the latest in “drought services”.

Drought and Fragmentation Impacts on Forest Evapotranspiration in Southwestern Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Numata, I.; Khand, K.; Kjaersgaard, J.

2017-12-01

We assessed the effects of forest fragmentation and drought on forest evapotranspiration (ET) estimated using the energy balance-based model METRIC with Landsat imagery in Rondônia and Acre in the southwestern Amazon. Forest ET estimates were produced for the dry seasons (June-August) of 2009-2011 thus including the 2010 drought period to quantify its impact by comparing to pre- and post-drought years. Furthermore, we tested forest edge distance, edge density, shape index, and area/edge ratio of forest fragments as fragmentation variables. The 2010 drought year showed the lowest monthly forest ET in August and September in both Rondônia and Acre within the study time period. However, part of the decline of forest ET in Acre during this period appeared to be due to less incoming solar radiation caused by atmospheric contamination from fires in addition to inadequate moisture availability. Lingering impacts of the drought on forest ET were observed in 2011, the post-drought year. Both sites showed lower forest ET in the late dry season in 2011 compared to 2009, the pre-drought year. Among forest fragmentation variables, edge distance presented significant impacts on forest ET in the drought and post-drought years (p<0.05), whereas the other variables were not significant. The magnitude of ET changes along edge distance becomes even greater in the drought year (2010) and the post-drought year (2011) in the month of August.

Advancing place-based transboundary climate services: Lessons from the 2016 North American drought, wildfire, and climate services forum

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In June 2016, nearly 50 climate science and services experts representing the North American Climate Services Partnership, North American Drought Monitor Forum, and North American Fire Forecasting Workshop joined together for an integrated workshop on drought, wildfire, and climate services across N...

Drought impacts on vegetation dynamics in the Mediterranean based on remote sensing and multi-scale drought indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigo, Ricardo; Gouveia, Celia M.; Beguería, Santiago; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio

2015-04-01

A number of recent studies have identified a significant increase in the frequency of drought events in the Mediterranean basin (e.g. Trigo et al., 2013, Vicente-Serrano et al., 2014). In the Mediterranean region, large drought episodes are responsible for the most negative impacts on the vegetation including significant losses of crop yield, increasing risk of forest fires (e.g. Gouveia et al., 2012) and even forest decline. The aim of the present work is to analyze in detail the impacts of drought episodes on vegetation in the Mediterranean basin behavior using NDVI data from (from GIMMS) for entire Mediterranean basin (1982-2006) and the multi-scale drought index (the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Correlation maps between fields of monthly NDVI and SPEI for at different time scales (1-24 months) were computed in order to identify the regions and seasons most affected by droughts. Affected vegetation presents high spatial and seasonal variability, with a maximum in summer and a minimum in winter. During February 50% of the affected pixels corresponded to a time scale of 6 months, while in November the most frequent time scale corresponded to 3 months, representing more than 40% of the affected region. Around 20% of grid points corresponded to the longer time scales (18 and 24 months), persisting fairly constant along the year. In all seasons the wetter clusters present higher NDVI values which indicates that aridity holds a key role to explain the spatial differences in the NDVI values along the year. Despite the localization of these clusters in areas with higher values of monthly water balance, the strongest control of drought on vegetation activity are observed for the drier classes located over regions with smaller absolute values of water balance. Gouveia C.M., Bastos A., Trigo R.M., DaCamara C.C. (2012) "Drought impacts on vegetation in the pre and post-fire events over Iberian Peninsula". Natural Hazards and Earth System

Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought–fire interactions

PubMed Central

Brando, Paulo Monteiro; Balch, Jennifer K.; Nepstad, Daniel C.; Morton, Douglas C.; Putz, Francis E.; Coe, Michael T.; Silvério, Divino; Macedo, Marcia N.; Davidson, Eric A.; Nóbrega, Caroline C.; Alencar, Ane; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S.

2014-01-01

Interactions between climate and land-use change may drive widespread degradation of Amazonian forests. High-intensity fires associated with extreme weather events could accelerate this degradation by abruptly increasing tree mortality, but this process remains poorly understood. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first field-based evidence of a tipping point in Amazon forests due to altered fire regimes. Based on results of a large-scale, long-term experiment with annual and triennial burn regimes (B1yr and B3yr, respectively) in the Amazon, we found abrupt increases in fire-induced tree mortality (226 and 462%) during a severe drought event, when fuel loads and air temperatures were substantially higher and relative humidity was lower than long-term averages. This threshold mortality response had a cascading effect, causing sharp declines in canopy cover (23 and 31%) and aboveground live biomass (12 and 30%) and favoring widespread invasion by flammable grasses across the forest edge area (80 and 63%), where fires were most intense (e.g., 220 and 820 kW⋅m−1). During the droughts of 2007 and 2010, regional forest fires burned 12 and 5% of southeastern Amazon forests, respectively, compared with <1% in nondrought years. These results show that a few extreme drought events, coupled with forest fragmentation and anthropogenic ignition sources, are already causing widespread fire-induced tree mortality and forest degradation across southeastern Amazon forests. Future projections of vegetation responses to climate change across drier portions of the Amazon require more than simulation of global climate forcing alone and must also include interactions of extreme weather events, fire, and land-use change. PMID:24733937

Drought of 1998-2002: impacts on Florida's hydrology and landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verdi, Richard Jay; Tomlinson, Stewart A.; Marella, Richard L.

2006-01-01

issuing water-shortage mandates to curb water use during the spring months of 2000. Generally, freshwater withdrawals increased 13 percent between 1995 and 2000 as a result of the dry conditions. Hundreds of new sinkholes developed across the State. Lake Jackson, in northwest Florida near Tallahassee, experienced its eighth and ninth drawdowns of the past 100 years, and became nearly dry. Numerous other lakes in northern and central Florida experienced similar events. Water restrictions were put into effect in urban areas of the northeast, southwest, and south Florida regions. Wildfires periodically raged over parts of Florida throughout the period, when tinder-dry undergrowth caught fire from lightning strikes or manmade causes. Smoke from these fires caused traffic delays as sections of major highways and interstate lanes forced traffic to slow to a crawl or were closed. Wildfire statistics (Florida Division of Forestry) show that 25,137 fires burned 1.5 million acres between 1998 and 2002. Finally, rainfall that occurred in late 2002, in 2003, and from a tropical storm and four hurricanes in 2004 ended this drought.

Drought in the Rockies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

This image shows the difference between the amount of vegetation in July 2000 and the average July vegetation for North America. Of particular interest are the dry conditions in the western United States. This spring and summer the Rocky Mountains have been relatively dry, and the brown regions stretching from the Canadian to the Mexican border, indicate the effect on the regions' forests. Western Montana and eastern Idaho are particularly parched, and appear darker brown. The dry conditions have contributed to this year's devastating fire season, during which millions of acres have burned in the west. Scientists find that during the growing season, land plants can be used to measure drought. Healthy, thriving plants reflect and absorb visible and near-infrared light differently than plants under stress. These variations in reflectance and absorption can be measured by satellites to produce maps of healthy and stressed vegetation. This image shows Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly, which indicates where vegetation growth was above average (green pixels), below average (brown pixels), or normal (white pixels). For more images and information about measuring vegetation and drought from space visit: Drought and Vegetation Monitoring. Image courtesy NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Biospheric Sciences Branch, based on data from NOAA.

Fires in Southern California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2007-01-01

In what seemed like the blink of an eye, wildfires ignited in the paper-dry, drought-stricken vegetation of Southern California over the weekend of October 20, 2007, and exploded into massive infernos that forced hundreds of thousands of people to evacuate their communities. Driven by Santa Ana winds, fires grew thousands of acres in just one to two days. The fires sped down from the mountains into the outskirts of coastal cities, including San Diego. Dozens of homes have burned to the ground, and at least one person has died, according to local news reports. Several of the fires were burning completely out of control as of October 22. This image of the fires in California was captured at 1:55 p.m. U.S. Pacific Daylight Time on October 22, 2007. Places where MODIS detected actively burning fires are outlined in red. Thick streamers of smoke unfurl over the Pacific Ocean. The brownish plumes are clouds of dust. Fires northwest of Los Angeles seemed calmer at the time of this image than they were the previous day.

AVHRR-based drought-observing system for monitoring the environment and socioeconomic activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kogan, F.

From all natural disaster, drought is the least understandable and the most damaging environmental phenomenon. Although in pre-satellite era, climate data were used for drought monitoring, drought specifics created problems in early drought detection start/end, monitoring its expansion/contraction, intensity and area coverage and the most important, timely estimation of the impacts on the environment and socioeconomic activities. The latest prevented to take prompt measures in mitigating negative consequences of drought for the society. Advances in remote sensing of the past ten years, contributed to the development of comprehensive drought monitoring system and numerous applications, which helped to make decisions for monitoring the environment and predicting sustainable socioeconomic activities. This paper discusses satellite-based land-surface observing system, which provides wells of information used for monitoring such unusual natural disaster as drought. This system was developed from the observations of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) flown on NOAA operational polar-orbiting satellites. The AVHRR data were packed into the Global Vegetation Index (GVI) product, which have served the global community since 1981. The GVI provided reflectances and indices (4 km spacial resolution) every seven days for each 16 km map cell between 75EN and 55ES covering all land ecosystems. The data includes raw and calibrated radiances in the visible, near infrared and infrared spectral bands, processed (with eliminated high frequency noise) radiances, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), 20-year climatology, vegetation condition indices and also products, such as vegetation health, drought, vegetation fraction, fire risk etc. In the past ten years, users around the world used this information addressing different issues of drought impacts on socioeconomic activities and responded positively to real time drought information place regularly on the

The Great East-Japan Earthquake and devastating tsunami: an update and lessons from the past Great Earthquakes in Japan since 1923.

PubMed

Ishigaki, Akemi; Higashi, Hikari; Sakamoto, Takako; Shibahara, Shigeki

2013-04-01

Japan has a long history of fighting against great earthquakes that cause structural damage/collapses, fires and/or tsunami. On March 11, 2011 at 14:46 (Friday), the Great East-Japan Earthquake (magnitude 9.0) attacked the Tohoku region (northeastern Japan), which includes Sendai City. The earthquake generated a devastating tsunami, leading to unprecedented disasters (~18,500 victims) in coastal areas of Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima prefectures, despite the fact that people living in the Tohoku region are well trained for tsunami-evacuation procedures, with the mindset of "Tsunami, ten-den-ko." This code means that each person should evacuate individually upon an earthquake. Sharing this rule, children and parents can escape separately from schools, houses or workplaces, without worrying about each other. The concept of ten-den-ko (individual evacuation) is helpful for people living in coastal areas of earthquake-prone zones around the world. It is also important to construct safe evacuation centers, because the March 11(th) tsunami killed people who had evacuated to evacuation sites. We summarize the current conditions of people living in the disaster-stricken areas, including the consequences of the Fukushima nuclear accident. We also describe the disaster responses as the publisher of the Tohoku Journal of Experimental Medicine (TJEM), located in Sendai, with online support from Tokyo. In 1923, the Great Kanto Earthquake (magnitude 7.9) evoked a massive fire that destroyed large areas of Tokyo (~105,000 victims), including the print company for TJEM, but the Wistar Institute printed three TJEM issues in 1923 in Philadelphia. Mutual aid relationships should be established between distant cities to survive future disasters.

Climate regulation of fire emissions and deforestation in equatorial Asia.

PubMed

van der Werf, G R; Dempewolf, J; Trigg, S N; Randerson, J T; Kasibhatla, P S; Giglio, L; Murdiyarso, D; Peters, W; Morton, D C; Collatz, G J; Dolman, A J; DeFries, R S

2008-12-23

Drainage of peatlands and deforestation have led to large-scale fires in equatorial Asia, affecting regional air quality and global concentrations of greenhouse gases. Here we used several sources of satellite data with biogeochemical and atmospheric modeling to better understand and constrain fire emissions from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Papua New Guinea during 2000-2006. We found that average fire emissions from this region [128 +/- 51 (1sigma) Tg carbon (C) year(-1), T = 10(12)] were comparable to fossil fuel emissions. In Borneo, carbon emissions from fires were highly variable, fluxes during the moderate 2006 El Niño more than 30 times greater than those during the 2000 La Niña (and with a 2000-2006 mean of 74 +/- 33 Tg C yr(-1)). Higher rates of forest loss and larger areas of peatland becoming vulnerable to fire in drought years caused a strong nonlinear relation between drought and fire emissions in southern Borneo. Fire emissions from Sumatra showed a positive linear trend, increasing at a rate of 8 Tg C year(-2) (approximately doubling during 2000-2006). These results highlight the importance of including deforestation in future climate agreements. They also imply that land manager responses to expected shifts in tropical precipitation may critically determine the strength of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks during the 21st century.

Climate regulation of fire emissions and deforestation in equatorial Asia

PubMed Central

van der Werf, G. R.; Dempewolf, J.; Trigg, S. N.; Randerson, J. T.; Kasibhatla, P. S.; Giglio, L.; Murdiyarso, D.; Peters, W.; Morton, D. C.; Collatz, G. J.; Dolman, A. J.; DeFries, R. S.

2008-01-01

Drainage of peatlands and deforestation have led to large-scale fires in equatorial Asia, affecting regional air quality and global concentrations of greenhouse gases. Here we used several sources of satellite data with biogeochemical and atmospheric modeling to better understand and constrain fire emissions from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Papua New Guinea during 2000–2006. We found that average fire emissions from this region [128 ± 51 (1σ) Tg carbon (C) year−1, T = 1012] were comparable to fossil fuel emissions. In Borneo, carbon emissions from fires were highly variable, fluxes during the moderate 2006 El Niño more than 30 times greater than those during the 2000 La Niña (and with a 2000–2006 mean of 74 ± 33 Tg C yr−1). Higher rates of forest loss and larger areas of peatland becoming vulnerable to fire in drought years caused a strong nonlinear relation between drought and fire emissions in southern Borneo. Fire emissions from Sumatra showed a positive linear trend, increasing at a rate of 8 Tg C year−2 (approximately doubling during 2000–2006). These results highlight the importance of including deforestation in future climate agreements. They also imply that land manager responses to expected shifts in tropical precipitation may critically determine the strength of climate–carbon cycle feedbacks during the 21st century. PMID:19075224

Forest health in the Blue Mountains: a management strategy for fire-adapted ecosystems.

Treesearch

R.W. Mutch; S.F. Arno; J.K. Brown; C.E. Carlson; R.D. Ottmar; J.L. Peterson

1993-01-01

The fire-adapted forests of the Blue Mountains are suffering from a forest health problem of catastrophic proportions. Contributing to the decline of forest health are such factors as the extensive harvesting of the western larch and ponderosa pine overstory during the 1900s, attempted exclusion of fire from a fire-dependent ecosystem, and the continuing drought. The...

Home destruction examination: Grass Valley Fire, Lake Arrowhead, California

Treesearch

Jack D. Cohen; Richard D. Stratton

2008-01-01

The Grass Valley Fire started October 22, 2007 at approximately 0508, one-mile west of Lake Arrowhead in the San Bernardino Mountains. Fuel and weather conditions were extreme due to drought, dry Santa Ana winds, and chaparral and conifer vegetation on steep terrain. The fire proceeded south through the Grass Valley drainage one-mile before impacting an area of dense...

Long Smoke Plumes from CA Blue Cut Fire

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2016-12-30

article title:  Long Smoke Plumes from California's Destructive Blue Cut Fire Spotted by NASA's MISR ... rapidly, burning through brush left tinder-dry by years of drought. Firefighters quickly responded, ordering the evacuation of about ...

Very-long-period volcanic earthquakes beneath Mammoth Mountain, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, D.P.; Dawson, P.; Johnston, M.J.S.; Pitt, A.M.; Biasi, G.; Smith, K.

2002-01-01

Detection of three very-long-period (VLP) volcanic earthquakes beneath Mammoth Mountain emphasizes that magmatic processes continue to be active beneath this young, eastern California volcano. These VLP earthquakes, which occured in October 1996 and July and August 2000, appear as bell-shaped pulses with durations of one to two minutes on a nearby borehole dilatometer and on the displacement seismogram from a nearby broadband seismometer. They are accompanied by rapid-fire sequences of high-frequency (HF) earthquakes and several long- period (LP) volcanic earthquakes. The limited VLP data are consistent with a CLVD source at a depth of ???3 km beneath the summit, which we interpret as resulting from a slug of fluid (CO2- saturated magmatic brine or perhaps basaltic magma) moving into a crack.

The CATDAT damaging earthquakes database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniell, J. E.; Khazai, B.; Wenzel, F.; Vervaeck, A.

2011-08-01

The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture) database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies, and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure, and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes. Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon. Over 17 000 sources of information have been utilised, primarily in the last few years, to present data from over 12 200 damaging earthquakes historically, with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless, and affected), and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid, and insured). Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto (214 billion USD damage; 2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars) compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>300 billion USD at time of writing), 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product), exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index), and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons. This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis, and the global reinsurance field.

Drought assessment by evapotranspiration mapping in Twente

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eden, U.; Timmermans, J.; van der Velde, R.; Su, Z.

2012-04-01

Drought is a reoccurring worldwide problem with impacts ranging from food production to infrastructure. Droughts are different from other natural hazards (floods, hurricanes, and earthquakes) because the effects can only be witnessed slowly and with a time delay. Effects of droughts are diverse, like famine and migration of people. Droughts are caused by natural causes but also by interaction between the natural events and water demand. Not only typical dry regions, like the Horn of Africa, are affected, but even semi-humid environments, like Europe. Temperature rise and precipitation deficit in the summers of 2003 and 2006 caused substantial crop losses in the agricultural sector in the Netherlands. In addition increased river water temperatures and low water levels caused cooling problems for power plants. Heat waves and prolonged absence of precipitation is expected to increase due to climate change. Therefore assessing and monitoring drought in the Netherlands is thus very important. Various drought indices are available to assess the severity, duration and spatial extend of the drought. Some of the commonly indices used are Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). However each of these indices do not take into account the actual state of the land surface in respect to the dryness. By analysing drought through actual evapotranspiration (ET) estimations from remote sensing this can be circumvented. The severity of the droughts was quantified by ET-mapping from 2003-2010. The assessment was based on the spatial and temporal distribution of ET using the Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI) drought index. Surface energy fluxes, like ET, were estimated using WACMOS methodology. The input data consisted of remote sensing products like land surface temperature, LAI, and albedo from MODIS; and meteorological data like air-temperature, humidity and wind speed from the European Centre for Medium weather forecast (ECMWF

Characteristics of Borneo and Sumatra fire plume heights and smoke clouds and their impact on regional El Niño-induced drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tosca, Michael; Randerson, James; Zender, Cs; Flanner, Mg; Nelson, Dl; Diner, Dj; Rasch, Pj; Logan, Ja

2010-05-01

During the dry season, anthropogenic fires in tropical forests and peatlands in equatorial Asia produce regionally expansive smoke clouds. We estimated the altitude of smoke clouds from these fires, characterized the sensitivity of these clouds to regional drought and El Niño variability, and investigated their effect on climate. We used the MISR satellite product and MISR INteractive eXplorer (MINX) software to estimate the heights of 382 smoke plumes (smoke with a visible surface source and transport direction) on Borneo and 143 plumes on Sumatra for 2001—2009. In addition, we estimated the altitudes of 10 smoke clouds (opaque regions of smoke with no detectable surface source or transport direction) on Borneo during 2006. Most smoke plumes (84%) were observed during El Niño events (2002, 2004, 2006, and 2009); this is consistent with higher numbers of active fire detections and larger aerosol optical depths observed during El Niño years. Annually averaged plume heights on Borneo were positively correlated to the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), an indicator of El Niño (r2 = 0.53), and the mean plume height for all El Niño years was 772.5 ± 15.9m, compared to 711.4 ± 28.7m for non-El Niño years. The median altitude of the 10 smoke clouds observed on Borneo during 2006 was 1313m, considerably higher than the median of nearby smoke plumes (787m). The difference in height between individual plumes and regional smoke clouds may be related to deeper planetary boundary layers and injection heights later in the afternoon (after the 10:30am MISR overpass) or other atmospheric mixing processes that occur on synoptic timescales. We investigated the climate response to these expansive smoke clouds using the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Climate responses to smoke from two 30 year simulations were compared: one simulation was forced with fire emissions typical of a dry (El Niño) burning year, while the other was forced with emissions typical of a low (La Ni

Global warming accelerates drought-induced forest death

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McDowell, Nathan; Pockman, William

2013-07-09

Many southwestern forests in the United States will disappear or be heavily altered by 2050, according to a series of joint Los Alamos National Laboratory-University of New Mexico studies. Nathan McDowell, a Los Alamos plant physiologist, and William Pockman, a UNM biology professor, explain that their research, and more from scientists around the world, is forecasting that by 2100 most conifer forests should be heavily disturbed, if not gone, as air temperatures rise in combination with drought. "Everybody knows trees die when there's a drought, if there's bark beetles or fire, yet nobody in the world can predict it withmore » much accuracy." McDowell said. "What's really changed is that the temperature is going up," thus the researchers are imposing artificial drought conditions on segments of wild forest in the Southwest and pushing forests to their limit to discover the exact processes of mortality and survival. The study is centered on drought experiments in woodlands at both Los Alamos and the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge in central New Mexico. Both sites are testing hypotheses about how forests die on mature, wild trees, rather than seedlings in a greenhouse, through the ecosystem-scale removal of 50 percent of yearly precipitation through large water-diversion trough systems.« less

Global warming accelerates drought-induced forest death

ScienceCinema

McDowell, Nathan; Pockman, William

2018-05-16

Many southwestern forests in the United States will disappear or be heavily altered by 2050, according to a series of joint Los Alamos National Laboratory-University of New Mexico studies. Nathan McDowell, a Los Alamos plant physiologist, and William Pockman, a UNM biology professor, explain that their research, and more from scientists around the world, is forecasting that by 2100 most conifer forests should be heavily disturbed, if not gone, as air temperatures rise in combination with drought. "Everybody knows trees die when there's a drought, if there's bark beetles or fire, yet nobody in the world can predict it with much accuracy." McDowell said. "What's really changed is that the temperature is going up," thus the researchers are imposing artificial drought conditions on segments of wild forest in the Southwest and pushing forests to their limit to discover the exact processes of mortality and survival. The study is centered on drought experiments in woodlands at both Los Alamos and the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge in central New Mexico. Both sites are testing hypotheses about how forests die on mature, wild trees, rather than seedlings in a greenhouse, through the ecosystem-scale removal of 50 percent of yearly precipitation through large water-diversion trough systems.

Post Fire Vegetation Recovery in Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gouveia, Celia; Bastos, Ana; DaCamara, Carlos; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2011-01-01

Fires in Portugal, as in the Mediterranean ecosystems, have a complex effect on vegetation regeneration due to the different responses of vegetation to the variety of fire regimes and to the complexity of landscape structures. A thorough evaluation of vegetation recovery after fire events becomes therefore crucial in land management. In 2005, Portugal suffered a strong damage from forest fires that damaged an area of 300 000 ha of forest and shrub. This year are particularly interesting because it is associated the severe drought of 2005. The aim of the present study is to identify large burnt scars in Portugal during the 2005 fire seasons and monitoring vegetation behaviour throughout the pre and the post fire periods. The mono-parametric model developed by Gouveia et al. (2010), based on monthly values of NDVI, at the 1km×1km spatial scale, as obtained from the VEGETATION-SPOT5 instrument, from 1999 to 2009, was used.

A plant distribution shift: temperature, drought or past disturbance?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwilk, Dylan W.; Keeley, Jon E.

2012-01-01

Simple models of plant response to warming climates predict vegetation moving to cooler and/or wetter locations: in mountainous regions shifting upslope. However, species-specific responses to climate change are likely to be much more complex. We re-examined a recently reported vegetation shift in the Santa Rosa Mountains, California, to better understand the mechanisms behind the reported shift of a plant distribution upslope. We focused on five elevational zones near the center of the gradient that captured many of the reported shifts and which are dominated by fire-prone chaparral. Using growth rings, we determined that a major assumption of the previous work was wrong: past fire histories differed among elevations. To examine the potential effect that this difference might have on the reported upward shift, we focused on one species, Ceanothus greggii: a shrub that only recruits post-fire from a soil stored seedbank. For five elevations used in the prior study, we calculated time series of past per-capita mortality rates by counting growth rings on live and dead individuals. We tested three alternative hypotheses explaining the past patterns of mortality: 1) mortality increased over time consistent with climate warming, 2) mortality was correlated with drought indices, and 3) mortality peaked 40–50 years post fire at each site, consistent with self-thinning. We found that the sites were different ages since the last fire, and that the reported increase in the mean elevation of C. greggii was due to higher recent mortality at the lower elevations, which were younger sites. The time-series pattern of mortality was best explained by the self-thinning hypothesis and poorly explained by gradual warming or drought. At least for this species, the reported distribution shift appears to be an artifact of disturbance history and is not evidence of a climate warming effect.

Natural disturbance production functions

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; D. Evan Mercer; John M. Pye

2008-01-01

Natural disturbances in forests are driven by physical and biological processes. Large, landscape scale disturbances derive primarily from weather (droughts, winds, ice storms, and floods), geophysical activities (earthquakes, volcanic eruptions), fires, insects, and diseases. Humans have invented ways to minimize their negative impacts and reduce their rates of...

Modeling Forest Understory Fires in an Eastern Amazonian Landscape

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alencar, A. A. C.; Solorzano, L. A.; Nepstad, D. C.

2004-01-01

Forest understory fires are an increasingly important cause of forest impoverishment in Ammonia, but little is known of the landscape characteristics and climatic phenomena that determine their occurrence. We developed empirical functions relating the occurrence of understory fires to landscape features near Paragominas, a 35- yr-old ranching and logging center in eastern Ammonia. An historical sequence of maps of forest understory fire was created based on field interviews With local farmers and Landsat TM images. Several landscape features that might explain spatial variations in the occurrence of understory fires were also mapped and co-registered for each of the sample dates, including: forest fragment size and shape, forest impoverishment through logging and understory fires, source of ignition (settlements and charcoal pits), roads, forest edges, and others. The spatial relationship between forest understory fire and each landscape characteristic was tested by regression analyses. Fire probability models were then developed for various combinations of landscape characteristics. The analyses were conducted separately for years of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are associated with severe drought in eastern Amazonia, and non-ENS0 years. Most (91 %) of the forest area that burned during the 10-yr sequence caught fire during ENSO years, when severe drought may have increased both forest flammability and the escape of agricultural management fires. Forest understory fires were associated with forest edges, as reported in previous studies from Ammonia. But the strongest predictor of forest fire was the percentage of the forest fragment that had been previously logged or burned. Forest fragment size, distance to charcoal pits, distance to agricultural settlement, proximity to forest edge, and distance to roads were also correlated with forest understory fire. Logistic regression models using information on fragment degradation and distance to ignition

Understanding of urban hazards, fire, and tsunamis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hays, Walter W.; ,

1997-01-01

Understanding of the causes and solutions of an urban area's (e.g., Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Oakland, Seattle, Portland, Anchorage, Salt Lake City, Memphis, St. Louis, Charleston, Boston, San Juan) vulnerability to earthquakes, fire, and tsunamis has increased significantly during the past 50 years, and during the current International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). Vulnerability is caused by flaws in planning, siting, design, construction, and use. It is fundamentally dependent upon the hazard, built, and policy environments of the urban area. Reduction of vulnerability is directly related to the decision-making process that calls for the adoption and enforcement of risk management programs (e.g., mitigation, preparedness, emergency response, and recovery measures) that are designed to make the urban area resilient to earthquakes, fires, and, as appropriate, tsunamis.

Spatial and temporal variability in the effects of wildfire and drought on thermal habitat for a desert trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schultz, Luke; Heck, Michael; Hockman-Wert, David; Allai, T; Wengerd, Seth J.; Cook, NA; Dunham, Jason B.

2017-01-01

We studied how drought and an associated stressor, wildfire, influenced stream flow permanence and thermal regimes in a Great Basin stream network. We quantified these responses by collecting information with a spatially extensive network of data loggers. To understand the effects of wildfire specifically, we used data from 4 additional sites that were installed prior to a 2012 fire that burned nearly the entire watershed. Within the sampled network 73 reaches were classified as perennial, yet only 51 contained surface water during logger installation in 2014. Among the sites with pre-fire temperature data, we observed 2–4 °C increases in maximum daily stream temperature relative to an unburned control in the month following the fire; effects (elevated up to 6.6 °C) appeared to persist for at least one year. When observed August mean temperatures in 2015 (the peak of regionally severe drought) were compared to those predicted by a regional stream temperature model, we observed deviations of −2.1°-3.5°. The model under-predicted and over-predicted August mean by > 1 °C in 54% and 10% of sites, respectively, and deviance from predicted was negatively associated with elevation. Combined drought and post-fire conditions appeared to greatly restrict thermally-suitable habitat for Lahontan cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii henshawi).

Relationship Between Palmer's Drought Severity Index and the Moisture Index of Woody Debris in the Southern Coastal Plain

Treesearch

James D. Haywood; Richard H. Stagg; Allan E. Tiarks

2004-01-01

After the 1998 through 2000 drought in Louisiana, some prescribed burns had uncommonly severe fire behavior. A significant portion of the consumed fuels most likely were larger material normally unavailable for burning. Therefore at sites in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas, we studied the relationship between Palmer’s Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the drying rate...

Fire, Fuel Composition and Resilience Threshold in Subalpine Ecosystem

PubMed Central

Blarquez, Olivier; Carcaillet, Christopher

2010-01-01

Background Forecasting the effects of global changes on high altitude ecosystems requires an understanding of the long-term relationships between biota and forcing factors to identify resilience thresholds. Fire is a crucial forcing factor: both fuel build-up from land-abandonment in European mountains, and more droughts linked to global warming are likely to increase fire risks. Methods To assess the vegetation response to fire on a millennium time-scale, we analyzed evidence of stand-to-local vegetation dynamics derived from sedimentary plant macroremains from two subalpine lakes. Paleobotanical reconstructions at high temporal resolution, together with a fire frequency reconstruction inferred from sedimentary charcoal, were analyzed by Superposed Epoch Analysis to model plant behavior before, during and after fire events. Principal Findings We show that fuel build-up from arolla pine (Pinus cembra) always precedes fires, which is immediately followed by a rapid increase of birch (Betula sp.), then by ericaceous species after 25–75 years, and by herbs after 50–100 years. European larch (Larix decidua), which is the natural co-dominant species of subalpine forests with Pinus cembra, is not sensitive to fire, while the abundance of Pinus cembra is altered within a 150-year period after fires. A long-term trend in vegetation dynamics is apparent, wherein species that abound later in succession are the functional drivers, loading the environment with fuel for fires. This system can only be functional if fires are mainly driven by external factors (e.g. climate), with the mean interval between fires being longer than the minimum time required to reach the late successional stage, here 150 years. Conclusion Current global warming conditions which increase drought occurrences, combined with the abandonment of land in European mountain areas, creates ideal ecological conditions for the ignition and the spread of fire. A fire return interval of less than 150 years

Statistical Modeling of Fire Occurrence Using Data from the Tōhoku, Japan Earthquake and Tsunami.

PubMed

Anderson, Dana; Davidson, Rachel A; Himoto, Keisuke; Scawthorn, Charles

2016-02-01

In this article, we develop statistical models to predict the number and geographic distribution of fires caused by earthquake ground motion and tsunami inundation in Japan. Using new, uniquely large, and consistent data sets from the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, we fitted three types of models-generalized linear models (GLMs), generalized additive models (GAMs), and boosted regression trees (BRTs). This is the first time the latter two have been used in this application. A simple conceptual framework guided identification of candidate covariates. Models were then compared based on their out-of-sample predictive power, goodness of fit to the data, ease of implementation, and relative importance of the framework concepts. For the ground motion data set, we recommend a Poisson GAM; for the tsunami data set, a negative binomial (NB) GLM or NB GAM. The best models generate out-of-sample predictions of the total number of ignitions in the region within one or two. Prefecture-level prediction errors average approximately three. All models demonstrate predictive power far superior to four from the literature that were also tested. A nonlinear relationship is apparent between ignitions and ground motion, so for GLMs, which assume a linear response-covariate relationship, instrumental intensity was the preferred ground motion covariate because it captures part of that nonlinearity. Measures of commercial exposure were preferred over measures of residential exposure for both ground motion and tsunami ignition models. This may vary in other regions, but nevertheless highlights the value of testing alternative measures for each concept. Models with the best predictive power included two or three covariates. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Woodland-to-forest transition during prolonged drought in Minnesota after ca. AD 1300.

PubMed

Shuman, Bryan; Henderson, Anna K; Plank, Colin; Stefanova, Ivanka; Ziegler, Susy S

2009-10-01

Interactions among multiple causes of ecological perturbation, such as climate change and disturbance, can produce "ecological surprises." Here, we examine whether climate-fire-vegetation interactions can produce ecological changes that differ in direction from those expected from the effects of climate change alone. To do so, we focus on the "Big Woods" of central Minnesota, USA, which was shaped both by climate and fire. The deciduous Big Woods forest replaced regional woodlands and savannas after the severity of regional fire regimes declined at ca. AD 1300. A trend toward wet conditions has long been assumed to explain the forest expansion, but we show that water levels at two lakes within the region (Wolsfeld Lake and Bufflehead Pond) were low when open woodlands were transformed into the Big Woods. Water levels were high instead at ca. 2240-795 BC when regional fire regimes were most severe. Based on the correlation between water levels and fire-regime severity, we infer that prolonged or repeated droughts after ca. AD 1265 reduced the biomass and connectivity of fine fuels (grasses) within the woodlands. As a result, regional fire severity declined and allowed tree populations to expand. Tree-ring data from the region show a peak in the recruitment of key Big Woods tree species during the AD 1930s drought and suggest that low regional moisture balance need not have been a limiting factor for forest expansion. The regional history, thus, demonstrates the types of counterintuitive ecosystem changes that may arise as climate changes in the future.

Progressive forest canopy water loss during the 2012-2015 California drought.

PubMed

Asner, Gregory P; Brodrick, Philip G; Anderson, Christopher B; Vaughn, Nicholas; Knapp, David E; Martin, Roberta E

2016-01-12

The 2012-2015 drought has left California with severely reduced snowpack, soil moisture, ground water, and reservoir stocks, but the impact of this estimated millennial-scale event on forest health is unknown. We used airborne laser-guided spectroscopy and satellite-based models to assess losses in canopy water content of California's forests between 2011 and 2015. Approximately 10.6 million ha of forest containing up to 888 million large trees experienced measurable loss in canopy water content during this drought period. Severe canopy water losses of greater than 30% occurred over 1 million ha, affecting up to 58 million large trees. Our measurements exclude forests affected by fire between 2011 and 2015. If drought conditions continue or reoccur, even with temporary reprieves such as El Niño, we predict substantial future forest change.

Tamm Review: Shifting global fire regimes: Lessons from reburns and research needs

Treesearch

Susan J. Prichard; Camille S. Stevens-Rumann; Paul F. Hessburg

2017-01-01

Across the globe, rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns have caused persistent regional droughts, lengthened fire seasons, and increased the number of weather-driven extreme fire events. Because wildfires currently impact an increasing proportion of the total area burned, land managers need to better understand reburns – in which previously burned...

Impact of Fire on Streamflow in Southern California Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bart, R. R.; Hope, A. S.

2007-12-01

Post-fire streamflow dynamics in Southern California have primarily been studied using small watershed experiments. These studies have concluded that increases in streamflow are a consequence of an increase in soil hydrophobicity, along with a decrease in transpiration rates associated with less vegetation. Extrapolation of the results from these studies to large watersheds (>50 km2) has been limited because large watersheds may not burn completely and other processes may emerge at these scales. In this study, six paired watersheds were used to test the hypothesis that there is an increase in streamflow following fire in large California watersheds (54-632 km2). The percentage of area burned in these watersheds ranged from 23 to 100%. The effects of fires on streamflow were examined at annual, seasonal, and monthly time-steps for the five years following fire. In addition, this study attempted to address fundamental regression assumptions that are commonly ignored, and create uncertainty bounds for evaluating the changes in streamflow before and after fire. Results of this experiment indicate that differences in pre and post-fire streamflows, at all time scales and in all the test catchments, were generally within the 95% uncertainty bounds of the regression equation. It is uncertain whether the apparent lack of significant difference between the pre and post-fire streamflow reflects no actual change in streamflow or is a consequence of the errors and uncertainties in the streamflow data. Furthermore, persistent drought in the years following fire made it challenging to interpret differences in pre and post-fire flows using the paired watershed methodology. The effects of hydrophobicity on post-fire streamflow may have been reduced by a limited number of storm flow events during these drought years. Under these dry conditions, soil moisture was the dominant control over transpirational losses, minimizing the effects of a reduction in vegetation cover. These results

Assessing and mapping drought hazard in Africa and South-Central America with a Meteorological Drought Severity Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrao, Hugo; Barbosa, Paulo; Vogt, Jürgen

2015-04-01

Drought is a recurring extreme climate event characterized by a temporary deficit of precipitation, soil moisture, streamflow, or any combination of the three taking place at the same time. The immediate consequences of short-term (i.e. a few weeks duration) droughts are, for example, a fall in crop production, poor pasture growth and a decline in fodder supplies from crop residues, whereas prolonged water shortages (e.g. of several months or years duration) may, amongst others, lead to a reduction in hydro-electrical power production and an increase of forest fires. As a result, comprehensive drought risk management is nowadays critical for many regions in the world. Examples are many African and South-and Central American countries that strongly depend on rain-fed agriculture for economic development with hydroelectricity and biomass as main sources of energy. Drought risk is the probability of harmful consequences, or expected losses resulting from interactions between drought hazard, i.e. the physical nature of droughts, and the degree to which a population or activity is vulnerable to its effects. As vulnerability to drought is increasing globally and certain tasks, such as distributive policies (e.g. relief aid, regulatory exemptions, or preparedness investments), require information on drought severity that is comparable across different climatic regions, greater attention has recently been directed to the development of methods for a standardized quantification of drought hazard. In this study we, therefore, concentrate on a methodology for assessing the severity of historical droughts and on mapping the frequency of their occurrence. To achieve these goals, we use a new Meteorological Drought Severity Index (MDSI). The motivation is twofold: 1) the observation that primitive indices of drought severity directly measure local precipitation shortages and cannot be compared geographically; and that 2) standardized indices of drought do not take into account

Temporal and spatial climatic controls on Holocene fire-related erosion and sedimentation, Jemez Mountains, New Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitch, Erin P.; Meyer, Grant A.

2016-01-01

In the Jemez Mountains, tree-ring data indicate that low-severity fires characterized the 400 yr before Euro-American settlement, and that subsequent fire suppression promoted denser forests, recent severe fires, and erosion. Over longer timescales, climate change may alter fire regimes; thus, we used fire-related alluvial deposits to assess the timing of moderate- to high-severity fires, their geomorphic impact, and relation to climate over the last 4000 yr. Fire-related sedimentation does not clearly follow millennial-scale climatic changes, but probability peaks commonly correspond with severe drought, e.g., within the interval 1700-1400 cal yr BP, and ca. 650 and ca. 410 cal yr BP. The latter episodes were preceded by prolonged wet intervals that could promote dense stands. Estimated recurrence intervals for fire-related sedimentation are 250-400 yr. Climatic differences with aspect influenced Holocene post-fire response: fire-related deposits constitute 77% of fan sediments from north-facing basins but only 39% of deposits from drier southerly aspects. With sparser vegetation and exposed bedrock, south aspects can generate runoff and sediment when unburned, whereas soil-mantled north aspects produce minor sediment unless severely burned. Recent channel incision appears unprecedented over the last 2300 yr, suggesting that fuel loading and extreme drought produced an anomalously severe burn in 2002.

Do weak global stresses synchronize earthquakes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bendick, R.; Bilham, R.

2017-08-01

Insofar as slip in an earthquake is related to the strain accumulated near a fault since a previous earthquake, and this process repeats many times, the earthquake cycle approximates an autonomous oscillator. Its asymmetric slow accumulation of strain and rapid release is quite unlike the harmonic motion of a pendulum and need not be time predictable, but still resembles a class of repeating systems known as integrate-and-fire oscillators, whose behavior has been shown to demonstrate a remarkable ability to synchronize to either external or self-organized forcing. Given sufficient time and even very weak physical coupling, the phases of sets of such oscillators, with similar though not necessarily identical period, approach each other. Topological and time series analyses presented here demonstrate that earthquakes worldwide show evidence of such synchronization. Though numerous studies demonstrate that the composite temporal distribution of major earthquakes in the instrumental record is indistinguishable from random, the additional consideration of event renewal interval serves to identify earthquake groupings suggestive of synchronization that are absent in synthetic catalogs. We envisage the weak forces responsible for clustering originate from lithospheric strain induced by seismicity itself, by finite strains over teleseismic distances, or by other sources of lithospheric loading such as Earth's variable rotation. For example, quasi-periodic maxima in rotational deceleration are accompanied by increased global seismicity at multidecadal intervals.

Drought, Climate Change and Potential Agricultural Productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; Herrera-Estrada, J. E.; Caylor, K. K.; Wood, E. F.

2011-12-01

Drought is a major factor in agricultural productivity, especially in developing regions where the capacity for water resources management is limited and climate variability ensures that drought is recurrent and problematic. Recent events in East Africa are testament to this, where drought conditions that have slowly developed over multiple years have contributed to reduced productivity and ultimately food crises and famine. Prospects for the future are not promising given ongoing problems of dwindling water supplies from non-renewable sources and the potential for increased water scarcity and increased drought with climate change. This is set against the expected increase in population by over 2 billion people by 2050 and rise in food demand, coupled with changes in demographics that affect food choices and increases in non-food agriculture. In this talk we discuss the global variability of drought over the 20th century and recent years, and the projected changes over the 21st century, and how this translates into changes in potential agricultural productivity. Drought is quantified using land surface hydrological models driven by a hybrid reanalysis-observational meteorological forcing dataset. Drought is defined in terms of anomalies of hydroclimatic variables, in particular precipitation, evaporation and soil moisture, and we calculate changes in various drought characteristics. Potential agricultural productivity is derived from the balance of precipitation to crop water demand, where demand is based on potential evaporation and crop coefficients for a range of staple crops. Some regional examples are shown of historic variations in drought and potential productivity, and the estimated water deficit for various crops. The multitude of events over the past decade, including heat waves in Europe, fires in Russia, long-term drought in northern China, southeast Australia, the Western US and a series of droughts in the Amazon and Argentina, hint at the influence of

Reducing Community Vulnerability to Wildland Fires in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keeley, J. E.

2010-12-01

In the US fires are not treated like other hazards such as earthquakes but rather as preventable through landscape fuel treatments and aggressive fire suppression. In southern California extreme fire weather has made it impossible to control all fires and thus loss of homes and lives is a constant threat to communities. There is growing evidence that indicate we are not likely to ever eliminate fires on these landscapes. Thus, it is time to reframe the fire problem and think of fires like we do with other natural hazards such as earthquakes. We do not attempt to stop earthquakes, rather the primary emphasis is on altering human infrastructure in ways that minimize community vulnerability. In other words we need to change our approach from risk elimination to risk management. This approach means we accept that we cannot eliminate fires but rather learn to live with fire by communities becoming more fire adapted. We potentially can make great strides in reducing community vulnerability by finding those factors with high impacts and are sensitive to changes in management. Presently, decision makers have relatively little guidance about which of these is likely to have the greatest impact. Future reductions in fire risk to communities requires we address both wildland and urban elements that contribute to destructive losses. Damage risk or D is determined by: D = f (I, S, E, G, H) where I = the probability of a fire starting in the landscape S = the probability of the fire reaching a size sufficient to reach the urban environment E = probability of it encroaching into the urban environment G = probability of fire propagating within the built environment H = probability of a fire, once within the built environment, resulting in the destruction of a building. In southern California, reducing I through more strategic fire prevention has potential for reducing fire risk. There are many ignition sources that could be reduced, such as replacing power line ignitions with

Post-fire grazing management in the Great Basin

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Increasing wildfire size and frequency in the Great Basin call for post-fire grazing management practices that ensure sagebrush steppe communities are productive and resilient to disturbances such as drought and species invasions. We provide guidelines for maintaining productive sagebrush steppe co...

Precipitation regime classification for the Mojave Desert: Implications for fire occurrence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tagestad, Jerry; Brooks, Matthew L.; Cullinan, Valerie; Downs, Janelle; McKinley, Randy

2016-01-01

Long periods of drought or above-average precipitation affect Mojave Desert vegetation condition, biomass and susceptibility to fire. Changes in the seasonality of precipitation alter the likelihood of lightning, a key ignition source for fires. The objectives of this study were to characterize the relationship between recent, historic, and future precipitation patterns and fire. Classifying monthly precipitation data from 1971 to 2010 reveals four precipitation regimes: low winter/low summer, moderate winter/moderate summer, high winter/low summer and high winter/high summer. Two regimes with summer monsoonal precipitation covered only 40% of the Mojave Desert ecoregion but contain 88% of the area burned and 95% of the repeat burn area. Classifying historic precipitation for early-century (wet) and mid-century (drought) periods reveals distinct shifts in regime boundaries. Early-century results are similar to current, while the mid-century results show a sizeable reduction in area of regimes with a strong monsoonal component. Such a shift would suggest that fires during the mid-century period would be minimal and anecdotal records confirm this. Predicted precipitation patterns from downscaled global climate models indicate numerous epochs of high winter precipitation, inferring higher fire potential for many multi-decade periods during the next century.

Drought

Treesearch

John W. Coulston

2009-01-01

Drought occurrence is a function of temperature, moisture, and soil characteristics. In some regions, such as much of the Western United States, drought is a regular occurrence, while in others, such as the Northeastern United States, drought occurs on an irregular basis. Moderate drought stress tends to slow plant growth while severe drought stress also reduces...

Seasonal Forecasting of Fires across Southern Borneo, 1997-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spessa, Allan; Field, Robert; Kaiser, Johannes; Langner, Andreas; Moore, Jonathan; Pappenberger, Florian; Siegert, Florian; Weber, Ulrich

2014-05-01

Wildfire is a fundamental Earth System process, affecting almost all biogeochemical cycles, and all vegetated biomes. Fires are naturally rare in humid tropical forests, and tropical trees are generally killed by even low-intensity fires. However, fire activity in the tropics has increased markedly over the past 15-20 years, especially in Indonesia, Amazonia, and more recently, central Africa also. Since fire is the prime tool for clearing land in the tropics, it not surprising that the increase in fire activity is strongly associated with increased levels of deforestation, which is driven mainly by world-wide demand for timber and agricultural commodities. The consequences of deforestation fires for biodiversity conservation and emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols are enormous. For example, carbon emissions from tropical biomass burning are around 20% of annual average global fossil fuel emissions. The destructive fires in Indonesia during the exceptionally strong El Niño-induced drought in late 1997 and early 1998 rank as some of the largest peak emissions events in recorded history. Past studies estimate about 1Gt of carbon was released to the atmosphere from the Indonesian fires in 1997 (which were mostly concentrated in carbon-rich forested peatlands). This amount is equivalent to about 14% of the average global annual fossil fuel emissions released during the 1990s. While not as large as the 1997-98 events, significant emissions from biomass burning have also been recorded in other (less severe) El Niño years across Indonesia, in particular, 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2009-2010. Recent climate modelling studies indicate that the frequency of El Niño events may increase under future climate change, affecting many tropical countries, including Indonesia. An increased drought frequency plus a projected increase in population and land use pressures in Indonesia, imply there will be even more fires and emissions in future across the region. However, while

Fires Across the Western United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2007-01-01

Days of record heat made the western United States tinder dry in early July 2007. Numerous wildfires raced across the dry terrain during the weekend of July 7. From Washington to Arizona, firefighters were battling fast-moving wildfires that threatened residences, businesses, gas wells, coal mines, communications equipment, and municipal watersheds. This image of the West was captured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite on Sunday, July 8. Places where MODIS detected actively burning fires are marked in red. Some of the largest blazes are labeled. Utah's Milford Flat was the largest; according to the July 9 morning report from the National Interagency Fire Center, the blaze was more than 280,000 acres, having grown more than 124,000 acres in the previous 24 hours. The fires have destroyed homes, forced evacuations, shut down trains and highways, and killed several people. Weather conditions were not expected to improve significantly across much of the area for several days, with hot temperatures and dry thunderstorms (lightning and winds, but little rain) likely in many places. Nearly the entire western United States was experiencing some level of drought as of July 3, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The drought had reached the 'extreme' category in southern California and western Arizona, and ranged from moderate to severe across most of the rest of the Southwest and Great Basin. The large image provided above has a spatial resolution (level of detail) of 500 meters per pixel. The MODIS Rapid Response Team provides twice-daily images of the region in additional resolutions and formats, including an infrared-enhanced version that makes burned terrain appear brick red. NASA image courtesy the MODIS Rapid Response Team, Goddard Space Flight Center

Hydro-climate and ecological behaviour of the drought of Amazonia in 2005.

PubMed

Marengo, J A; Nobre, C A; Tomasella, J; Cardoso, M F; Oyama, M D

2008-05-27

In 2005, southwestern Amazonia experienced the effects of an intense drought that affected life and biodiversity. Several major tributaries as well as parts of the main river itself contained only a fraction of their normal volumes of water, and lakes were drying up. The consequences for local people, animals and the forest itself are impossible to estimate now, but they are likely to be serious. The analyses indicate that the drought was manifested as weak peak river season during autumn to winter as a consequence of a weak summertime season in southwestern Amazonia; the winter season was also accompanied by rainfall that sometimes reached 25% of the climatic value, being anomalously warm and dry and helping in the propagation of fires. Analyses of climatic and hydrological records in Amazonia suggest a broad consensus that the 2005 drought was linked not to El Niño as with most previous droughts in the Amazon, but to warming sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean.

Climatic stress increases forest fire severity across the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Mantgem, Philip J.; Nesmith, Jonathan C. B.; Keifer, MaryBeth; Knapp, Eric E.; Flint, Alan; Flint, Lorraine

2013-01-01

Pervasive warming can lead to chronic stress on forest trees, which may contribute to mortality resulting from fire-caused injuries. Longitudinal analyses of forest plots from across the western US show that high pre-fire climatic water deficit was related to increased post-fire tree mortality probabilities. This relationship between climate and fire was present after accounting for fire defences and injuries, and appeared to influence the effects of crown and stem injuries. Climate and fire interactions did not vary substantially across geographical regions, major genera and tree sizes. Our findings support recent physiological evidence showing that both drought and heating from fire can impair xylem conductivity. Warming trends have been linked to increasing probabilities of severe fire weather and fire spread; our results suggest that warming may also increase forest fire severity (the number of trees killed) independent of fire intensity (the amount of heat released during a fire).

The effects of drought and fire in the extirpation of an abundant semi-aquatic turtle from a lacustrine environment in the southwestern USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovich, Jeffrey E.; Quillman, Mari; Zitt, Brian; Schroeder, Adam; Green, David E.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Gibbons, Paul; Goode, Eric

2017-01-01

We documented a significant mortality event affecting a southwestern pond turtle (Actinemys pallida) population living in a lake in southern California, USA. The area around the lake was impacted by a large wildland fire in 2013 that occurred during a protracted drought. As the mortality event was still unfolding, we collected data in 2014 on water quality, demographic structure, and short-term survivorship of the population. Water quality was poor with low levels of dissolved oxygen and high salinity of up to 45.90 ppt. Many turtles were severely emaciated and coated with a pale mineralized layer on their shells and skin. Estimated survival rate was low leading to a projected 90% decline in 134 days and a high probability of extirpation within a year. The lake was dry in September 2015 with no evidence of live turtles. Necropsies and low volumetric body condition indices suggested death by starvation. Although this semi-aquatic species has the ability to aestivate in upland habitats during periods of low water or move to other nearby water bodies, it is unlikely that many were able to do so because of their extremely poor condition and the severity of the drought conditions throughout the area.

Amazon forests did not green up during the 2005 drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samanta, A.; Ganguly, S.; Hashimoto, H.; Devadiga, S.; Vermote, E. F.; Knyazikhin, Y.; Nemani, R. R.; Myneni, R. B.

2009-12-01

The sensitivity of Amazon rainforests to dry-season droughts remains unresolved with reports of enhanced tree mortality and forest fires, on one hand, and, excessive forest green-up, on the other. Here using the latest and improved version of satellite-derived vegetation greenness data - Collection 5 (C5) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) - we report that the there is no evidence of large-scale greening of the Amazon during the 2005 drought - approximately 11%-12% of these forests display greening, while, 28%-29% show browning or no-change, and for the rest the data are not of sufficient quality to characterize any changes. In addition, independent satellite-derived data on precipitation, surface radiation and aerosols do not substantiate underlying assumptions of the hypothesis of enhanced photosynthetic capacity of intact Amazon forests stimulated by increased light availability during a drought. First, interannual changes in dry-season greenness are unrelated to concurrent changes in light availability. Second, the 2005 drought cannot be used as a surrogate for light availability to these rainforests owing to persistently high aerosol loads in the atmosphere. Third, the spatial extent and magnitude of greening do not change systematically with drought severity. Finally, the changes in vegetation activity of these forests during the drought-stricken dry season of 2005 are not unique in comparison to that observed during dry seasons of non-drought years. Our analysis also demonstrates the critical role of biomass burning aerosols in limiting light availability to water stressed Amazon forests during the dry season of 2005. This will have important implications for the sensitivity of these forests to similar droughts in future.

Changes in future fire regimes under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thonicke, Kirsten; von Bloh, Werner; Lutz, Julia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Wu, Minchao; Arneth, Almut

2013-04-01

Fires are expected to change under future climate change, climatic fire is is increasing due to increase in droughts and heat waves affecting vegetation productivity and ecosystem function. Vegetation productivity influences fuel production, but can also limit fire spread. Vegetation-fire models allow investigating the interaction between wildfires and vegetation dynamics, thus non-linear effects between changes in fuel composition and production on fire as well as changes in fire regimes on fire-related plant mortality and fuel combustion. Here we present results from simulation experiments, where the vegetation-fire models LPJmL-SPITFIRE and LPJ-GUESS are applied to future climate change scenarios from regional climate models in Europe and Northern Africa. Climate change impacts on fire regimes, vegetation dynamics and carbon fluxes are quantified and presented. New fire-prone regions are mapped and changes in fire regimes of ecosystems with a long-fire history are analyzed. Fuel limitation is likely to increase in Mediterranean-type ecosystems, indicating non-linear connection between increasing fire risk and fuel production. Increased warming in temperate ecosystems in Eastern Europe and continued fuel production leads to increases not only in climatic fire risk, but also area burnt and biomass burnt. This has implications for fire management, where adaptive capacity to this new vulnerability might be limited.

Spatial Configuration of Drought Disturbance and Forest Gap Creation across Environmental Gradients

PubMed Central

Andrew, Margaret E.; Ruthrof, Katinka X.; Matusick, George; Hardy, Giles E. St. J.

2016-01-01

Climate change is increasing the risk of drought to forested ecosystems. Although drought impacts are often anecdotally noted to occur in discrete patches of high canopy mortality, the landscape effects of drought disturbances have received virtually no study. This study characterized the landscape configuration of drought impact patches and investigated the relationships between patch characteristics, as indicators of drought impact intensity, and environmental gradients related to water availability to determine factors influencing drought vulnerability. Drought impact patches were delineated from aerial surveys following an extreme drought in 2011 in southwestern Australia, which led to patchy canopy dieback of the Northern Jarrah Forest, a Mediterranean forest ecosystem. On average, forest gaps produced by drought-induced dieback were moderate in size (6.6 ± 9.7 ha, max = 85.7 ha), compact in shape, and relatively isolated from each other at the scale of several kilometers. However, there was considerable spatial variation in the size, shape, and clustering of forest gaps. Drought impact patches were larger and more densely clustered in xeric areas, with significant relationships observed with topographic wetness index, meteorological variables, and stand height. Drought impact patch clustering was more strongly associated with the environmental factors assessed (R2 = 0.32) than was patch size (R2 = 0.21); variation in patch shape remained largely unexplained (R2 = 0.02). There is evidence that the xeric areas with more intense drought impacts are ‘chronic disturbance patches’ susceptible to recurrent drought disturbance. The spatial configuration of drought disturbances is likely to influence ecological processes including forest recovery and interacting disturbances such as fire. Regime shifts to an alternate, non-forested ecosystem may occur preferentially in areas with large or clustered drought impact patches. Improved understanding of drought impacts

Simulating drought impacts on energy balance in an Amazonian rainforest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imbuzeiro, H. A.; Costa, M. H.; Galbraith, D.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Powell, T.; Harper, A. B.; Levine, N. M.; Rowland, L.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Benezoli, V. H.; Meir, P.; da Costa, A. C. L.; Brando, P. M.; Malhi, Y.; Saleska, S. R.; Williams, M. D.

2014-12-01

The studies of the interaction between vegetation and climate change in the Amazon Basin indicate that up to half of the region's forests may be displaced by savanna vegetation by the end of the century. Additional analyses suggest that complex interactions among land use, fire-frequency, and episodic drought are driving an even more rapid process of the forest impoverishment and displacement referred here as "savannization". But it is not clear whether surface/ecosystem models are suitable to analyze extreme events like a drought. Long-term simulations of throughfall exclusion experiments has provided unique insights into the energy dynamics of Amazonian rainforests during drought conditions. In this study, we evaluate how well six surface/ecosystem models quantify the energy dynamics from two Amazonian throughfall exclusion experiments. All models were run for the Tapajós and Caxiuanã sites with one control plot using normal precipitation (i.e. do not impose a drought) and then the drought manipulation was imposed for several drought treatments (10 to 90% rainfall exclusion). The sap flow, net radiation (Rn), sensible (H), latent (LE) and ground (G) heat flux are used to analyze if the models are able to capture the dynamics of water stress and what the implications for the energy dynamics are. With respect to the model validation, when we compare the sap flow observed and transpiration simulated, models are more accurate to simulate control plots than drought treatments (50% rainfall exclusion). The results show that the models overestimate the sap flow data during the drought conditions, but they were able to capture the changes in the main energy balance components for different drought treatments. The Rn and LE decreased and H increased with more intensity of drought. The models sensitivity analysis indicate that models are more sensitive to drought when rainfall is excluded for more than 60% and when this reduction occurs during the dry season.

Ground water level, Water storage, Soil moisture, Precipitation Variability Using Multi Satellite Data during 2003-2016 Associated with California Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J. W.; Singh, R. P.

2017-12-01

The agricultural market of California is a multi-billion-dollar industry, however in the recent years, the state is facing severe drought. It is important to have a deeper understanding of how the agriculture is affected by the amount of rainfall as well as the ground conditions in California. We have considered 5 regions (each 2 degree by 2 degree) covering whole of California. Multi satellite (MODIS Terra, GRACE, GLDAS) data through NASA Giovanni portal were used to study long period variability 2003 - 2016 of ground water level and storage, soil moisture, root zone moisture level, precipitation and normalized vegetation index (NDVI) in these 5 regions. Our detailed analysis of these parameters show a strong correlation between the NDVI and some of these parameters. NDVI represents greenness showing strong drought conditions during the period 2011-2016 due to poor rainfall and recharge of ground water in the mid and southern parts of California. Effect of ground water level and underground storage will be also discussed on the frequency of earthquakes in five regions of California. The mid and southern parts of California show increasing frequency of small earthquakes during drought periods.

The economic costs of natural disasters globally from 1900-2015: historical and normalised floods, storms, earthquakes, volcanoes, bushfires, drought and other disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann; Schaefer, Andreas

2016-04-01

For the first time, a breakdown of natural disaster losses from 1900-2015 based on over 30,000 event economic losses globally is given based on increased analysis within the CATDAT Damaging Natural Disaster databases. Using country-CPI and GDP deflator adjustments, over 7 trillion (2015-adjusted) in losses have occurred; over 40% due to flood/rainfall, 26% due to earthquake, 19% due to storm effects, 12% due to drought, 2% due to wildfire and under 1% due to volcano. Using construction cost indices, higher percentages of flood losses are seen. Depending on how the adjustment of dollars are made to 2015 terms (CPI vs. construction cost indices), between 6.5 and 14.0 trillion USD (2015-adjusted) of natural disaster losses have been seen from 1900-2015 globally. Significant reductions in economic losses have been seen in China and Japan from 1950 onwards. An AAL of around 200 billion in the last 16 years has been seen equating to around 0.25% of Global GDP or around 0.1% of Net Capital Stock per year. Normalised losses have also been calculated to examine the trends in vulnerability through time for economic losses. The normalisation methodology globally using the exposure databases within CATDAT that were undertaken previously in papers for the earthquake and volcano databases, are used for this study. The original event year losses are adjusted directly by capital stock change, very high losses are observed with respect to floods over time (however with improved flood control structures). This shows clear trends in the improvement of building stock towards natural disasters and a decreasing trend in most perils for most countries.

Drought, multi-seasonal climate, and wildfire in northern New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Margolis, Ellis; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Swetnam, Thomas W.

2017-01-01

Wildfire is increasingly a concern in the USA, where 10 million acres burned in 2015. Climate is a primary driver of wildfire, and understanding fire-climate relationships is crucial for informing fire management and modeling the effects of climate change on fire. In the southwestern USA, fire-climate relationships have been informed by tree-ring data that extend centuries prior to the onset of fire exclusion in the late 1800s. Variability in cool-season precipitation has been linked to fire occurrence, but the effects of the summer North American monsoon on fire are less understood, as are the effects of climate on fire seasonality. We use a new set of reconstructions for cool-season (October–April) and monsoon-season (July–August) moisture conditions along with a large new fire scar dataset to examine relationships between multi-seasonal climate variability, fire extent, and fire seasonality in the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico (1599–1899 CE). Results suggest that large fires burning in all seasons are strongly influenced by the current year cool-season moisture, but fires burning mid-summer to fall are also influenced by monsoon moisture. Wet conditions several years prior to the fire year during the cool season, and to a lesser extent during the monsoon season, are also important for spring through late-summer fires. Persistent cool-season drought longer than 3 years may inhibit fires due to the lack of moisture to replenish surface fuels. This suggests that fuels may become increasingly limiting for fire occurrence in semi-arid regions that are projected to become drier with climate change.

Drought vulnerability assessment for prioritising drought warning implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naumann, Gustavo; Faneca Sànchez, Marta; Mwangi, Emmah; Barbosa, Paulo; Iglesias, Ana; Garrote, Luis; Werner, Micha

2014-05-01

Drought warning provides a potentially efficient approach to mitigation of drought impacts, and should be targeted at areas most vulnerable to being adversely impacted. Assessing drought vulnerability is, however, complex and needs to consider susceptibility to drought impact as well as the capacity to cope with drought. In this paper a Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) is proposed that considers four primary components that reflect the capacity of society to adapt to drought; the renewable natural capital, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and the available infrastructure and technology. The DVI is established as a weighted combination of these four components, each a composite of selected indicators. Constituent indicators are calculated based on national and/or regional census data and statistics, and while the resulting DVI should not be considered an absolute measure of drought vulnerability it does provide for a prioritisation of areas that can be used to target drought warning efforts. Sensitivity analysis of weights applied show the established DVI to be robust. Through the DVI the development of drought forecasting and warning can be targeted at the most vulnerable areas. The proposed DVI is applied at both the continental scale in Africa to assess drought vulnerability of the different nations across Africa, and at the national level in Kenya, allowing for prioritisation of the counties within Kenya to drought vulnerability. Results show the relative vulnerability of countries and counties vulnerable to drought. At the continental scale, Somalia, Burundi, Niger, Ethiopia, Mali and Chad are found to be the countries most vulnerable to drought. At the national level, the relative vulnerability of the counties across Kenya is found, with counties in the North-East of Kenya having the highest values of DVI. At the country level results were compared with drought disaster information from the EM-DAT disaster database, showing a good

New streams and springs after the 2014 Mw6.0 South Napa earthquake

PubMed Central

Wang, Chi-Yuen; Manga, Michael

2015-01-01

Many streams and springs, which were dry or nearly dry before the 2014 Mw6.0 South Napa earthquake, started to flow after the earthquake. A United States Geological Survey stream gauge also registered a coseismic increase in discharge. Public interest was heightened by a state of extreme drought in California. Since the new flows were not contaminated by pre-existing surface water, their composition allowed unambiguous identification of their origin. Following the earthquake we repeatedly surveyed the new flows, collecting data to test hypotheses about their origin. We show that the new flows originated from groundwater in nearby mountains released by the earthquake. The estimated total amount of new water is ∼106 m3, about 1/40 of the annual water use in the Napa–Sonoma area. Our model also makes a testable prediction of a post-seismic decrease of seismic velocity in the shallow crust of the affected region. PMID:26158898

New streams and springs after the 2014 Mw6.0 South Napa earthquake.

PubMed

Wang, Chi-Yuen; Manga, Michael

2015-07-09

Many streams and springs, which were dry or nearly dry before the 2014 Mw6.0 South Napa earthquake, started to flow after the earthquake. A United States Geological Survey stream gauge also registered a coseismic increase in discharge. Public interest was heightened by a state of extreme drought in California. Since the new flows were not contaminated by pre-existing surface water, their composition allowed unambiguous identification of their origin. Following the earthquake we repeatedly surveyed the new flows, collecting data to test hypotheses about their origin. We show that the new flows originated from groundwater in nearby mountains released by the earthquake. The estimated total amount of new water is ∼ 10(6) m(3), about 1/40 of the annual water use in the Napa-Sonoma area. Our model also makes a testable prediction of a post-seismic decrease of seismic velocity in the shallow crust of the affected region.

Bugaboo Fire Rages in Georgia and Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2007-01-01

Subtropical Storm Andrea apparently did little to quench numerous large wildfires burning in the U.S. Southeast in early May 2007. On May 11, 2007, when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Terra satellite captured this image, the remnants of the storm had dwindled to a small ball of clouds in the Atlantic Ocean, and huge plumes of smoke snaked across Georgia, Florida, and the Gulf of Mexico. Areas where MODIS detected actively burning fires are outlined in red. A huge fire is burning in and near the Okefenokee Swamp, which straddles the state line between Georgia and Florida. For logistical purposes, fire officials are calling the part of the fire in Florida the Florida Bugaboo Fire and the part in Georgia the Bugaboo Scrub Fire. The distinction is simply administrative, however; in reality, it is single, continuous swath of burning timber, swamp land, grass, and scrubland. The blaze was more than 133,000 thousand acres as of May 11, and it appeared to be spreading on virtually all perimeters at the time of the image, with active fire locations detected in a circle that surrounds an already burned (or partially burned) area. According to reports form the Southern Area Coordination Center, the fire grew by at least 20,000 acres on May 10. Numerous communities were threatened and hundreds of people were evacuated, while parts of Interstate 10 were closed to all but emergency vehicles. To the northeast of the Bugaboo Fire, other large wildfires were burning in Georgia as well. The Floyds Prairie Fire, to the immediate north, was threatening endangered species and their habitat, while farther north the 116,000-plus-acre Sweat Farm Road/Big Turnaround Complex Fire was still burning in the area south of the city of Waycross, nearly a month after the fires first started in mid-April. Southern Georgia and Florida are in the grip of moderate to extreme drought. The state line area where the Bugaboo Fire is burning is one of the areas in extreme drought. The

Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blauhut, Veit; Stahl, Kerstin; Stagge, James Howard; Tallaksen, Lena M.; De Stefano, Lucia; Vogt, Jürgen

2016-07-01

Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, meant as the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work tests the capability of commonly applied drought indices and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and combines information on past drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This hybrid approach bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact prediction in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro-region-specific sensitivities of drought indices, with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for a 12-month accumulation period as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictors, with information about land use and water resources being the best vulnerability-based predictors. The application of the hybrid approach revealed strong regional and sector-specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of the best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer accumulation periods, and a combination of information on land use and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information with drought risk prediction

Physiological and Biochemical Responses in Two Ornamental Shrubs to Drought Stress.

PubMed

Toscano, Stefania; Farieri, Elisa; Ferrante, Antonio; Romano, Daniela

2016-01-01

Drought stress is one of the most important abiotic stress limiting the plant survival and growth in the Mediterranean environment. In this work, two species typically grown in Mediterranean areas with different drought responses were used. Two shrubs, with slow (Photinia × fraseri Dress 'Red Robin') or fast (Eugenia uniflora L. 'Etna Fire') adaptation ability to drought, were subjected to three water regimes: well-watered (WW), moderate (MD), and severe (SD) drought stress conditions for 30 days. Net photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance, maximum quantum efficiency of PSII photochemistry (Fv/Fm), relative water content (RWC), chlorophyll content, proline, malondialdehyde (MDA), and antioxidant enzyme activities (superoxide dismutase, catalase, and peroxidase) were measured. Results showed that RWC and proline were higher in Eugenia than in Photinia, demonstrating the greater tolerance of the latter to the water stress. The drought stress levels applied did not compromise photosynthetic efficiency through stomatal regulation, while a reduction of Fv/Fm ratio was observed at the end of the experimental period. MDA significantly increased after 30 days in both species. The antioxidant enzyme activities showed different responses to water stress conditions. In both species, the water stress scores showed positive, while proline content showed negative correlations with all physiological parameters.

Chihuahuan Desert grassland responds similarly to fall, spring, and summer fires during prolonged drought

Treesearch

Laura M. Ladwig; Scott L. Collins; Paulette L. Ford; Laura B. White

2014-01-01

Land managers frequently use prescribed burning to help maintain grassland communities. Semiarid grassland dynamics following fire are linked to precipitation, with increasing soil moisture accelerating the rate of recovery. Prescribed fires are typically scheduled to follow natural fire regimes, but burning outside the natural fire season could be equally effective...

Climatic influences on fire regimes in montane forests of the southern Cascades, California, USA

Treesearch

A. H. Taylor; V. Trouet; C. N. Skinner

2008-01-01

he relationship between climate variability and fire extent was examined in montane and upper montane forests in the southern Cascades. Fire occurrence and extent were reconstructed for seven sites and related to measures of reconstructed climate for the period 1700 to 1900. The climate variables included the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), summer temperature (...

Seasonality of Fire Weather Strongly Influences Fire Regimes in South Florida Savanna-Grassland Landscapes

PubMed Central

Platt, William J.; Orzell, Steve L.; Slocum, Matthew G.

2015-01-01

Fire seasonality, an important characteristic of fire regimes, commonly is delineated using seasons based on single weather variables (rainfall or temperature). We used nonparametric cluster analyses of a 17-year (1993–2009) data set of weather variables that influence likelihoods and spread of fires (relative humidity, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, soil moisture) to explore seasonality of fire in pine savanna-grassland landscapes at the Avon Park Air Force Range in southern Florida. A four-variable, three-season model explained more variation within fire weather variables than models with more seasons. The three-season model also delineated intra-annual timing of fire more accurately than a conventional rainfall-based two-season model. Two seasons coincided roughly with dry and wet seasons based on rainfall. The third season, which we labeled the fire season, occurred between dry and wet seasons and was characterized by fire-promoting conditions present annually: drought, intense solar radiation, low humidity, and warm air temperatures. Fine fuels consisting of variable combinations of pyrogenic pine needles, abundant C4 grasses, and flammable shrubs, coupled with low soil moisture, and lightning ignitions early in the fire season facilitate natural landscape-scale wildfires that burn uplands and across wetlands. We related our three season model to fires with different ignition sources (lightning, military missions, and prescribed fires) over a 13-year period with fire records (1997–2009). Largest wildfires originate from lightning and military ignitions that occur within the early fire season substantially prior to the peak of lightning strikes in the wet season. Prescribed ignitions, in contrast, largely occur outside the fire season. Our delineation of a pronounced fire season provides insight into the extent to which different human-derived fire regimes mimic lightning fire regimes. Delineation of a fire season associated with timing of

Seasonality of fire weather strongly influences fire regimes in South Florida savanna-grassland landscapes.

PubMed

Platt, William J; Orzell, Steve L; Slocum, Matthew G

2015-01-01

Fire seasonality, an important characteristic of fire regimes, commonly is delineated using seasons based on single weather variables (rainfall or temperature). We used nonparametric cluster analyses of a 17-year (1993-2009) data set of weather variables that influence likelihoods and spread of fires (relative humidity, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, soil moisture) to explore seasonality of fire in pine savanna-grassland landscapes at the Avon Park Air Force Range in southern Florida. A four-variable, three-season model explained more variation within fire weather variables than models with more seasons. The three-season model also delineated intra-annual timing of fire more accurately than a conventional rainfall-based two-season model. Two seasons coincided roughly with dry and wet seasons based on rainfall. The third season, which we labeled the fire season, occurred between dry and wet seasons and was characterized by fire-promoting conditions present annually: drought, intense solar radiation, low humidity, and warm air temperatures. Fine fuels consisting of variable combinations of pyrogenic pine needles, abundant C4 grasses, and flammable shrubs, coupled with low soil moisture, and lightning ignitions early in the fire season facilitate natural landscape-scale wildfires that burn uplands and across wetlands. We related our three season model to fires with different ignition sources (lightning, military missions, and prescribed fires) over a 13-year period with fire records (1997-2009). Largest wildfires originate from lightning and military ignitions that occur within the early fire season substantially prior to the peak of lightning strikes in the wet season. Prescribed ignitions, in contrast, largely occur outside the fire season. Our delineation of a pronounced fire season provides insight into the extent to which different human-derived fire regimes mimic lightning fire regimes. Delineation of a fire season associated with timing of

The influences of drought and humans on the fire regimes of northern Pennsylvania, USA

Treesearch

Patrick H. Brose; Daniel C. Dey; Richard P. Guyette; Joseph M. Marschall; Michael C. Stambaugh

2013-01-01

Understanding past fire regimes is necessary to justify and implement restoration of disturbance-associated forests via prescribed fire programs. In eastern North America, the characteristics of many presettlement fire regimes are unclear because of the passage of time. To help clarify this situation, we developed a 435-year fire history for the former conifer forests...

Fires, Floods, and Hurricanes: Is ENSO to Blame?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mjelde, James W.; Litzenberg, Kerry K.; Hoyle, Julie E.; Holochwost, Sharon R.; Funkhouser, Sarah

2007-01-01

Scientists have associated the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon with extreme climate events such as flooding in California, droughts in Australia, fires in Indonesia, and increased hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean. The popular media is constantly attributing individual storms to the ENSO phenomenon. The reality is that a…

Drought: A comprehensive R package for drought monitoring, prediction and analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Zengchao; Hao, Fanghua; Singh, Vijay P.; Cheng, Hongguang

2015-04-01

Drought may impose serious challenges to human societies and ecosystems. Due to complicated causing effects and wide impacts, a universally accepted definition of drought does not exist. The drought indicator is commonly used to characterize drought properties such as duration or severity. Various drought indicators have been developed in the past few decades for the monitoring of a certain aspect of drought condition along with the development of multivariate drought indices for drought characterizations from multiple sources or hydro-climatic variables. Reliable drought prediction with suitable drought indicators is critical to the drought preparedness plan to reduce potential drought impacts. In addition, drought analysis to quantify the risk of drought properties would provide useful information for operation drought managements. The drought monitoring, prediction and risk analysis are important components in drought modeling and assessments. In this study, a comprehensive R package "drought" is developed to aid the drought monitoring, prediction and risk analysis (available from R-Forge and CRAN soon). The computation of a suite of univariate and multivariate drought indices that integrate drought information from various sources such as precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, and runoff is available in the drought monitoring component in the package. The drought prediction/forecasting component consists of statistical drought predictions to enhance the drought early warning for decision makings. Analysis of drought properties such as duration and severity is also provided in this package for drought risk assessments. Based on this package, a drought monitoring and prediction/forecasting system is under development as a decision supporting tool. The package will be provided freely to the public to aid the drought modeling and assessment for researchers and practitioners.

Remote sensing sensitivity to fire severity and fire recovery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Key, C.H.

2005-01-01

The paper examines fundamental ways that geospatial data on fire severity and recovery are influenced by conditions of the remote sensing. Remote sensing sensitivities are spatial, temporal and radiometric in origin. Those discussed include spatial resolution, the sampling time of year, and time since fire. For standard reference, sensitivities are demonstrated with examples drawn from an archive of burn assessments based on one radiometric index, the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio. Resolution determines the aggregation of fire effects within a pixel (alpha variation), hence defining the detected ecological response, and controlling the ability to determine patchiness and spatial distribution of responses throughout a burn (beta variation). As resolution decreases, alpha variation increases, extracting beta variation from the complexity of the whole burn. Seasonal timing impacts the radiometric quality of data in terms of transmittance, sun angle, and potential for enhanced contrast between responses within burns. Remote sensing sensitivity can degrade during many fire seasons when snow, incomplete burning, hazy conditions, low sun angles, or extended drought are common. Time since fire (lag timing) most notably shapes severity detection through the first-order fire effects evident in survivorship and delayed mortality that emerge by the growth period after fire. The former effects appear overly severe at first, but diminish, as burned vegetation remains viable. Conversely, the latter signals vegetation that appears healthy at first, but is damaged by heat to the extent that it soon dies. Both responses can lead to either over- or under-estimating severity, respectively, depending on fire behavior and pre-fire composition unique to each burned area. Based on implications of such sensitivities, three sampling intervals for short-term burn severity are identified; rapid, initial, and extended assessment, sampled within ca. two weeks, two months, and depending on

Vegetation recovery after fire in the Klamath-Siskiyou region, southern Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hibbs, David; Jacobs, Ruth

2011-01-01

In July 2002, lightning strikes started five forest fires that merged into one massive wildfire in the Klamath-Siskiyou Ecoregion of southern Oregon. Aided by drought, severe weather conditions, dry fuels, and steep topography, the fire grew to more than 200,000 hectares of mostly public forest land. Known as the Biscuit Fire, it was Oregon's largest forest fire in more than 130 years and one of the largest wildfires on record in the United States. Discussions centered around why such a massive fire was happening, how large would it become, who was keeping communities and homes safe, and what would be the final economic and ecological outcome. Weeks later when the fire was out, conversations turned to other questions, including what, if anything, should happen for forest recovery.

A growing importance of large fires in conterminous United States during 1984-2012

Treesearch

Jia Yang; Hanqin Tian; Bo Tao; Wei Ren; Shufen Pan; Yongqiang Liu; Yuhang Wang

2015-01-01

Fire frequency, extent, and size exhibit a strong linkage with climate conditions and play a vital role in the climate system. Previous studies have shown that the frequency of large fires in the western United States increased significantly since the mid-1980s due to climate warming and frequent droughts. However, less work has been conducted to examine burned area...

Drought Legacy and the Impacts on the Amazon Forest Carbon Exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saatchi, S. S.

2015-12-01

Sassan Saatchi1,2, Yifan Yu1, Xiang Xu2, Luiz Aragao3, Liana Anderson31Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA2Institute of Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90045. USA3 Remote Sensing Division, National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, Brazil, 12227-010, BrazilRecent Amazonian droughts have drawn attention to the vulnerability of tropical forests to climate perturbations. Ground and satellite observations of 2005 and 2010 mega-droughts have shown an increase in fire occurrence and tree mortality during the period of drought. Here, we use a combination of satellite observations over a period of about 15 years to examine the legacy of the droughts in terms of impacts on the ecological structure and function of the forests in years following the droughts and the subsequent carbon exchange. Using data from microwave satellite sensors of rainfall, canopy backscatter (2000-2014) and GRACE and GOSAT, we show that the 2005 drought has a legacy of 2-5 years in western Amazonia, by increasing the disturbance in canopy trees and impacting the gross primary production of the forest significantly. Amazonian forests, particularly in the southern region were again impacted by the 2010 mega-drought, causing a legacy of 2-4 years with potential decrease in GPP and productivity observed by GOSAT fluorescence. The persistent of low canopy water content observed by a joint QSCAT and OceanSAT observations were linked to a delay in recharging of the hydrological system observed by GRACE over a period of 2-5 years. The results suggest that Amazonian forests with distinct dry seasons in southern and western regions of the basin are potentially more vulnerable to droughts compared to regions with less seasonality. The long recovery time from the 2005 and 2010 droughts suggests that the occurence of droughts in Amazonia at 5-10 year frequency may lead to long-term alteration of the

Effects of drought season length on live moisture content dynamic in Mediterranean shrubs: 8 years of data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellizzaro, Grazia; Ventura, Andrea; Bortolu, Sara; Duce, Pierpaolo

2017-04-01

Mediterranean shrubs are an important component of Mediterranean vegetation communities. In this kind of vegetation, live fuel is a relevant component of the available fuel which catches fire and, consequently, its water content plays an important role in determining fire occurrence and spread. In live plant, water content patterns are related to both environmental conditions (e.g. meteorological variables, soil water availability) and ecophysiological characteristics of the plant species. According to projections on future climate, an increase in risk of summer droughts is likely to take place in Southern Europe. More prolonged drought seasons induced by climatic changes are likely to influence general flammability characteristics of fuel. In addition, variations in precipitation and mean temperature could directly affect fuel water status and length of critical periods of high ignition danger for Mediterranean ecosystems. The aims of this work were to analyse the influence of both weather seasonality and inter-annual weather variability on live fuel moisture content within and among some common Mediterranean species, and to investigate the effects of prolonged drought season on live moisture content dynamic. The study was carried out in North Sardinia (Italy). Measurements of LFMC seasonal pattern of two really common and flammable Mediterranean shrub species (Cistus monspeliensis and Rosmarinus officinalis) were performed periodically for 8 years. Meteorological variables were also recorded. Relationships between live fuel moisture content and environmental conditions (i.e. rainfall, air temperature and soil moisture) were investigated and effects of different lengths of drought season on LFMC pattern were analysed. Results showed that distribution and amount of rainfall affected seasonal variation of live fuel moisture content. In particular more prolonged drought seasons caused a longer period in which LFMC was below 95 -100% that is commonly considered as

Rim Fire, California

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

On August 23, 2013, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite acquired this image of the drought-fueled Rim fire burning in central California, near Yosemite National Park. Red outlines indicate hot spots where MODIS detected unusually warm surface temperatures associated with fires. Winds blew a thick smoke plume toward the northeast. A smaller fire—American fire—burned to the north. The lower image is a photograph that shows the fire burning at night on August 21. Started on August 17, 2013, the fast-moving fire had already charred more than 100,000 acres (40,000 hectares) by August 23, despite the efforts of more than 2,000 firefighters. Hundreds of people were forced to evacuate their homes, and roads in the area were closed. As of August 23, no structures had been reported destroyed, but the fire threatened the towns of Groveland and Pine Mountain Lake. By late August, wildfires had burned 3.4 million acres in the United States, making 2013 somewhat less active than other recent years. Over the last decade, fires charred 5.7 million acres on average by August 22, according to statistics published the National Interagency Fire Center. NASA image by Jeff Schmaltz, LANCE/EOSDIS Rapid Response. Caption by Adam Voiland. Instrument: Aqua - MODIS Credit: NASA Earth Observatory NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

A fire history derived from Pinus resinosa Ait. for the Islands of Eastern Lac La Croix, Minnesota, USA.

PubMed

Johnson, Lane B; Kipfmueller, Kurt F

2016-06-01

We reconstructed fire occurrence near a fur-trade era canoe travel corridor (used ca. 1780-1802) in the Quetico-Superior region west of Lake Superior to explore the possibility of human influence on pre-fire suppression rates of fire occurrence. Our research objectives were to (1) examine the spatial and temporal patterns of fire in the study area, (2) test fires' strength of association with regional drought, and (3) assess whether reconstructed fire frequencies could be explained by observed rates of lightning fire ignition over the modern period of record. We developed a 420-year fire history for the eastern portion of Lac La Croix in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness (BWCAW). Seventy-one fire-scarred samples were collected from remnant Pinus resinosa Ait. (red pine) stumps and logs from thirteen distinct island and three mainland forest stands. Collectively these samples contained records of 255 individual fire scars representing 79 fire events from 1636 to 1933 (study area mean fire intervals [MFI] 3.8 yr). Reconstructed fires were spatially and temporally asynchronous and not strongly associated with regional drought (P > 0.05). When compared to the conservative, tree-ring reconstructed estimate of historical fire occurrence and modern lightning-caused fires (1929-2012), a noticeable change in the distribution and frequency of fires within the study area was evident with only two lightning-ignited island fires since 1934 in the study area. Our results suggest a high likelihood that indigenous land use contributed to surface fire ignitions within our study area and highlights the importance of examining the potential effects of past indigenous land use when determining modern approaches to fire and wilderness management in fire-adapted ecosystems.

Response of Amazon Fires to the 2015/2016 El Niño and Evaluation of a Seasonal Fire Season Severity Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randerson, J. T.

2016-12-01

Recent work has established that year-to-year variability in drought and fire within the Amazon responds to a dual forcing from ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic. Teleconnections between the Pacific and the Amazon are strongest between October and March, when El Niño contributes to below-average precipitation during the wet season. A reduced build-up of soil moisture during the wet season, in turn, may limit water availability and transpiration in tropical forests during the following dry season, lowering surface humidity, drying fuels, and allowing fires to spread more easily through the understory. The delayed influence of soil moisture through this land - atmosphere coupling provides a means to predict fire season severity 3-6 months before the onset of the dry season. With the aim of creating new opportunities for forest conservation, we have developed an experimental seasonal fire forecasting system for the Amazon. The 2016 fire season severity forecast, released in June by UCI and NASA, predicts unusually high risk across eastern Peru, northern Bolivia, and Brazil. Several surface and satellite data streams confirm that El Niño teleconnections had a significant impact on wet season hydrology within the Amazon. Rainfall observations from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre provided evidence that cumulative precipitation deficits during August-April were 1 to 2 standard deviations below the long-term mean for most of the basin. These observations were corroborated by strong negative terrestrial water storage anomalies measured by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, and by fluorescence and vegetation index observations from other sensors that indicated elevated canopy stress. By August 3rd, satellite observations showed above average fire activity in most, but not all, forecast regions. Using additional satellite observations that become available later this year, we plan to describe the full spatial and

Climatic stress increases forest fire severity across the western United States.

PubMed

van Mantgem, Phillip J; Nesmith, Jonathan C B; Keifer, MaryBeth; Knapp, Eric E; Flint, Alan; Flint, Lorriane

2013-09-01

Pervasive warming can lead to chronic stress on forest trees, which may contribute to mortality resulting from fire-caused injuries. Longitudinal analyses of forest plots from across the western US show that high pre-fire climatic water deficit was related to increased post-fire tree mortality probabilities. This relationship between climate and fire was present after accounting for fire defences and injuries, and appeared to influence the effects of crown and stem injuries. Climate and fire interactions did not vary substantially across geographical regions, major genera and tree sizes. Our findings support recent physiological evidence showing that both drought and heating from fire can impair xylem conductivity. Warming trends have been linked to increasing probabilities of severe fire weather and fire spread; our results suggest that warming may also increase forest fire severity (the number of trees killed) independent of fire intensity (the amount of heat released during a fire). Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Monitoring post-fire recovery of shrublands in Mediterranean-type ecosystems using MODIS and TM/ETM+ data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hope, Allen; Albers, Noah; Bart, Ryan

2010-05-01

Wildland fires in Mediterranean-Type Ecosystems (MTEs) are episodic events that dramatically alter land-cover conditions. Monitoring post-fire vegetation recovery is important for land management applications such as the scheduling of prescribed burns, post-fire resource management and soil erosion control. Full recovery of MTE shrublands may take many years and have a prolonged effect on water, energy and carbon fluxes in these ecosystems. Comparative studies of fynbos ecosystems in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa (Western Cape Region) and chaparral ecosystems of California have demonstrated that there is a considerable degree of convergence in some aspects of post-fire vegetation regeneration and marked differences in other aspects. Since these MTEs have contrasting rainfall and soil nutrient conditions, an obvious question arises as to the similarity or dissimilarity in remotely sensed post-fire recovery pathways of vegetation stands in these two regions and the extent to which fire severity and drought impact the rate of vegetation recovery. Post-fire recovery pathways of chaparral and fynbos vegetation stands were characterized using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) based on TM/ETM+ and MODIS (250 m) data. Procedures based on stands of unburned vegetation (control) were implemented to normalize the NDVI for variations associated with inter-annual differences in rainfall. Only vegetation stands that had not burned for 20 years were examined in this study to eliminate potential effects of variable fire histories on the recovery pathways. Post-fire recovery patterns of vegetation in both regions and across different vegetation types were found to be very similar. Post-fire stand age was the primary control over vegetation recovery and the NDVI returned to pre-fire values within seven to 10 years of the fires. Droughts were shown to cause slight interruptions in recovery rates while fire severity had no discernable effect. Intra

Climate Change Transforms Fire Regimes but Does not Eliminate Forest Carbon Sequestration in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henne, P. D.; Hawbaker, T. J.; Berryman, E.

2017-12-01

Annual area burned in the Rocky Mountains varies with climatic conditions. However, projecting long-term changes in wildfire presents an enduring challenge because climate also constrains vegetation and fuel availability. We combined an aridity-threshold fire model with the Landis-II dynamic landscape vegetation model (NECN extension) to project climate change impacts on vegetation, area burned, and ecosystem carbon balance in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). We developed a fire model that relates drought stress to area burned by quantifying an aridity threshold separating large and small years in 15 ecoregions in the Intermountain West. A significant positive correlation (r2 = 0.97) exists between mean fire-season aridity and ecoregion-specific aridity thresholds. We simulated vegetation and fire dynamics in the GYE at 250 m spatial resolution with Landis-II, using projections from five climate models and two emissions scenarios for the period 1980-2100 AD. We determined if each simulation year exceeded the regional aridity threshold, then randomly drew the number of fires and size of individual fires from fire-size distributions from large or small fire years. Burned area increases dramatically in most climate scenarios, especially after 2060, when most years exceed the aridity threshold. Productivity gains due to rising temperatures partially offset biomass lost to fire, but C stocks plateau or decline after 2060 in most simulations as burned area increases, and drought stress causes post-fire regeneration to decline at low elevations. However, species level changes (e.g. expansion by drought-tolerant Pseuodotsuga menziesii) help maintain productivity in sites where water becomes limiting. Fire-adapted Pinus contorta occupies less total area, but a greater proportion of remaining forests, and Picea engelmannii and Abies lasiocarpa significantly decline. Although fire and climate change will alter species distributions and forest structure, our results

El Niño Could Drive Intense Season for Amazon Fires

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

El Niño conditions in 2015 and early 2016 altered rainfall patterns around the world. In the Amazon, El Niño reduced rainfall during the wet season, leaving the region drier at the start of the 2016 dry season than any year since 2002, according to NASA satellite data. Wildfire risk for the dry season months of July to October this year now exceeds fire risk in 2005 and 2010, drought years when wildfires burned large areas of Amazon rainforest, said Doug Morton, an Earth scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center who helped create the fire forecast. "Severe drought conditions at the start of the dry season set the stage for extreme fire risk in 2016 across the southern Amazon," Morton said. The Amazon fire forecast uses the relationship between climate and active fire detections from NASA satellites to predict fire season severity during the region’s dry season. Developed in 2011 by scientists at University of California, Irvine and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, the forecast model is focused particularly on the link between sea surface temperatures and fire activity. Warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific (El Niño) and Atlantic oceans shift rainfall away from the Amazon region, increasing the risk of fires during dry season months. Read more: go.nasa.gov/2937ADt NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

A heuristic expert system for forest fire guidance in Greece.

PubMed

Iliadis, Lazaros S; Papastavrou, Anastasios K; Lefakis, Panagiotis D

2002-07-01

Forests and forestlands are common inheritance for all Greeks and a piece of the national wealth that must be handed over to the next generations in the best possible condition. After 1974, Greece faces a severe forest fire problem and forest fire forecasting is the process that will enable the Greek ministry of Agriculture to reduce the destruction. This paper describes the basic design principles of an Expert System that performs forest fire forecasting (for the following fire season) and classification of the prefectures of Greece into forest fire risk zones. The Expert system handles uncertainty and uses heuristics in order to produce scenarios based on the presence or absence of various qualitative factors. The initial research focused on the construction of a mathematical model which attempted to describe the annual number of forest fires and burnt area in Greece based on historical data. However this has proven to be impossible using regression analysis and time series. A closer analysis of the fire data revealed that two qualitative factors dramatically affect the number of forest fires and the hectares of burnt areas annually. The first is political stability and national elections and the other is drought cycles. Heuristics were constructed that use political stability and drought cycles, to provide forest fire guidance. Fuzzy logic was applied to produce a fuzzy expected interval for each prefecture of Greece. A fuzzy expected interval is a narrow interval of values that best describes the situation in the country or a part of the country for a certain time period. A successful classification of the prefectures of Greece in forest fire risk zones was done by the system, by comparing the fuzzy expected intervals to each other. The system was tested for the years 1994 and 1995. The testing has clearly shown that the system can predict accurately, the number of forest fires for each prefecture for the following year. The average accuracy was as high as 85

Chapter 8: Droughts, Floods, and Wildfires

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wehner, M. F.; Arnold, J. R.; Knutson, T.; Kunkel, K. E.; LeGrande, A. N.

2017-01-01

Recent droughts and associated heat waves have reached record intensity in some regions of the United States; however, by geographical scale and duration, the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s remains the benchmark drought and extreme heat event in the historical record (very high confidence). While by some measures drought has decreased over much of the continental United States in association with long-term increases in precipitation, neither the precipitation increases nor inferred drought decreases have been confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. The human effect on recent major U.S. droughts is complicated. Little evidence is found for a human influence on observed precipitation deficits, but much evidence is found for a human influence on surface soil moisture deficits due to increased evapotranspiration caused by higher temperatures. Future decreases in surface (top 10 cm) soil moisture from anthropogenic forcing over most of the United States are likely as the climate warms under higher scenarios. Substantial reductions in western U.S. winter and spring snowpack are projected as the climate warms. Earlier spring melt and reduced snow water equivalent have been formally attributed to human-induced warming (high confidence) and will very likely be exacerbated as the climate continues to warm (very high confidence). Under higher scenarios, and assuming no change to current water resources management, chronic, long-duration hydrological drought is increasingly possible by the end of this century. Detectable changes in some classes of flood frequency have occurred in parts of the United States and are a mix of increases and decreases. Extreme precipitation, one of the controlling factors in flood statistics, is observed to have generally increased and is projected to continue to do so across the United States in a warming atmosphere. However, formal attribution approaches have not established a significant connection of increased riverine flooding to human

The role of fire in the boreal carbon budget

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harden, J.W.; Trumbore, S.E.; Stocks, B.J.; Hirsch, A.; Gower, S.T.; O'Neill, K. P.; Kasischke, E.S.

2000-01-01

To reconcile observations of decomposition rates, carbon inventories, and net primary production (NPP), we estimated long-term averages for C exchange in boreal forests near Thompson, Manitoba. Soil drainage as defined by water table, moss cover, and permafrost dynamics, is the dominant control on direct fire emissions. In upland forests, an average of about 10-30% of annual NPP was likely consumed by fire over the past 6500 years since these landforms and ecosystems were established. This long-term, average fire emission is much larger than has been accounted for in global C cycle models and may forecast an increase in fire activity for this region. While over decadal to century times these boreal forests may be acting as slight net sinks for C from the atmosphere to land, periods of drought and severe fire activity may result in net sources of C from these systems.

Joint Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures for Foreign Humanitarian Assistance

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-08-15

violence and nuclear, biological, or chemical (NBC) accidents). DOD policy permits military components to participate in FHA operations in response to...Acts of Man Flood, Drought, Fire, Hurricane, Earthquake Volcanic Eruption Civil Violence Nuclear, Biological, or Chemical Accidents FOREIGN DISASTERS I...Supply shortages developed, particularly of items not ordinarily required by a fighting unit — catheters for small children , for example. Finally

Western forest, fire risk, and climate change

Treesearch

Valerie Rapp

2004-01-01

Climate warming may first show up in forests as increased growth, which occurs as warmer temperatures, increased carbon dioxide, and more precipitation encourage higher rates of photosynthesis. The second way that climate change may show up in forests is through changes in disturbance regimes—the long-term patterns of fire, drought, insects, and diseases that are basic...

Western forests, fire risk, and climate change.

Treesearch

Valerie Rapp

2004-01-01

Climate warming may first show up in forests as increased growth, which occurs as warmer temperatures, increased carbon dioxide, and more precipitation encourage higher rates of photosynthesis. The second way that climate change may show up in forests is through changes in disturbance regimes—the long-term patterns of fire, drought, insects, and diseases that are basic...

Does Terrestrial Drought Explain Global CO2 Flux Anomalies Induced by El Nino?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwalm. C. R.; Williams, C. A.; Schaefer, K.; Baker, I.; Collatz, G. J.; Roedenbeck, C.

2011-01-01

The El Nino Southern Oscillation is the dominant year-to-year mode of global climate variability. El Nino effects on terrestrial carbon cycling are mediated by associated climate anomalies, primarily drought, influencing fire emissions and biotic net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Here we evaluate whether El Nino produces a consistent response from the global carbon cycle. We apply a novel bottom-up approach to estimating global NEE anomalies based on FLUXNET data using land cover maps and weather reanalysis. We analyze 13 years (1997-2009) of globally gridded observational NEE anomalies derived from eddy covariance flux data, remotely-sensed fire emissions at the monthly time step, and NEE estimated from an atmospheric transport inversion. We evaluate the overall consistency of biospheric response to El Nino and, more generally, the link between global CO2 flux anomalies and El Nino-induced drought. Our findings, which are robust relative to uncertainty in both methods and time-lags in response, indicate that each event has a different spatial signature with only limited spatial coherence in Amazonia, Australia and southern Africa. For most regions, the sign of response changed across El Nino events. Biotic NEE anomalies, across 5 El Nino events, ranged from -1.34 to +0.98 Pg Cyr(exp -1, whereas fire emissions anomalies were generally smaller in magnitude (ranging from -0.49 to +0.53 Pg C yr(exp -1). Overall drought does not appear to impose consistent terrestrial CO2 flux anomalies during El Ninos, finding large variation in globally integrated responses from 11.15 to +0.49 Pg Cyr(exp -1). Despite the significant correlation between the CO2 flux and El Nino indices, we find that El Nino events have, when globally integrated, both enhanced and weakened terrestrial sink strength, with no consistent response across events

Physiological responses of somaclonal variants of triploid bermudagrass (Cynodon transvaalensis x Cynodon dactylon) to drought stress.

PubMed

Lu, Shaoyun; Chen, Chuanhao; Wang, Zhongcheng; Guo, Zhenfei; Li, Haihang

2009-03-01

Eight somaclonal variants with enhanced drought tolerance were isolated from regenerated plants of triploid bermudagrass (Cynodon dactylon x Cynodon transvaalensis cv., TifEagle). Three of them (10-17, 89-02, 117-08) with strong drought tolerance were selected for investigations of physiological responses to drought stress. Compared to the parent control, TifEagle, the somaclonal variants had higher relative water contents and relative growth, and lower ion leakages in the greenhouse tests, while no difference in evapotranspirational water losses and soil water contents was observed between the variants and TifEagle. The variants also had less leaf firing in the field tests under drought stress. Superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT) and ascorbate peroxidase (APX) activities decreased gradually in responses to drought stress in all plants and exhibited negative correlations with ion leakage, indicating that the declined activities of these antioxidant enzymes were associated with drought injury in the triploid bermudagrass. However, CAT activities were significantly higher in all three variants than in TifEagle during drought stress. Two variants, 10-17 and 89-02, also had significantly higher APX activities than TifEagle before and during the first 4 days of drought treatments. These two lines also showed higher SOD activities after prolonged drought stress. Proline, total soluble sugars and sucrose were accumulated under drought stress in all plants and exhibited positive correlations with ion leakage. More proline and sugars were accumulated in TifEagle than in the variants. The results indicated that higher activities of the antioxidant enzymes in the variants during drought stress are associated with their increased drought tolerance.

Field measurements of trace gases emitted by prescribed fires in southeastern US pine forests using an open-path FTIR system

Treesearch

Sheryl K. Akagi; Ian R. Burling; A. Mendoza; Timothy J. Johnson; M. Cameron; David W. T. Griffith; C. Paton-Walsh; David R. Weise; James Reardon; Robert J. Yokelson

2014-01-01

We report trace-gas emission factors from three pine-understory prescribed fires in South Carolina, US measured during the fall of 2011. The fires were more intense than many prescribed burns because the fuels included mature pine stands not subjected to prescribed fire in decades that were lit following an extended drought. Emission factors were measured with a fixed...

Field measurements of trace gases emitted by prescribed fires in southeastern US pine forests using an open-path FTIR system

Treesearch

S. K. Akagi; I. R. Burling; A. Mendoza; T. J. Johnson; M. Cameron; D. W. T. Griffith; C. Paton-Walsh; D. R. Weise; J. Reardon; R. J. Yokelson

2013-01-01

We report trace-gas emission factors from three pine-understory prescribed fires in South Carolina, US measured during the fall of 2011. The fires were more intense than many prescribed burns because the fuels included mature pine stands not subjected to prescribed fire in decades that were lit following an extended drought. The emission factors were measured...

Numerical study of fire whirlwind taking into account radiative heat transfer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakai, S.; Miyagi, N.

2010-06-01

The fire whirlwind is a strong swirling flow with flame and spark, which may occur in the case of, widespread fire in the urban region by an earthquake disaster or an air raid, and a large-scale fire such as a forest fire. Fire whirlwind moves and promotes spread of fire and may extend serious damage rapidly. In this study, performing the numerical analysis of fire whirlwind with respect to scale effect, it is examined whether a relationship exists between a real phenomenon and the phenomenon in the reduction model with taking into account radiative heat transfer. Three dimensional analyses are performed to investigate the thermal and flow fields by using the analytical software FLUENT6.3. It is analyzed that those swirling flow in original scale, 1/10 scale, 1/50 scale, 1/100 scale from the original brake out to vanish. As an analytical condition, parameter calculation is repeated to get the velocity of a parallel flow which is the easiest to occur the swirling flow for each reduction model, and then scale effect is discussed by comparing the velocity of the natural convection, the velocity of the parallel flow, the center pressure of the whirlwind and the continuance time of the swirling flow. The analysis model of C-character heat source model is performed as well as the analysis in L-character model, which is one of the representative example of the fire whirlwind occurred at Tokyo in the Great Kanto Earthquake (1923). The result of the numerical analysis shows that there is a scale effect to the speed of the parallel flow to generate the swirling flow.

Vegetation responses to season of fire in an aseasonal, fire-prone fynbos shrubland.

PubMed

Kraaij, Tineke; Cowling, Richard M; van Wilgen, Brian W; Rikhotso, Diba R; Difford, Mark

2017-01-01

recruitment responses are not related to the season of fire. Germination appeared less rainfall-dependent than in winter-rainfall shrublands, suggesting that summer drought-avoiding dormancy is limited and has less influence on variation in recruitment success among fire seasons. The varied response of proteoid recruitment to fire season (or its simulation) implies that burning does not have to be restricted to particular seasons in eastern coastal fynbos, affording more flexibility for fire management than in shrublands associated with winter rainfall.

Vegetation responses to season of fire in an aseasonal, fire-prone fynbos shrubland

PubMed Central

Cowling, Richard M.; van Wilgen, Brian W.; Rikhotso, Diba R.; Difford, Mark

2017-01-01

recruitment responses are not related to the season of fire. Germination appeared less rainfall-dependent than in winter-rainfall shrublands, suggesting that summer drought-avoiding dormancy is limited and has less influence on variation in recruitment success among fire seasons. The varied response of proteoid recruitment to fire season (or its simulation) implies that burning does not have to be restricted to particular seasons in eastern coastal fynbos, affording more flexibility for fire management than in shrublands associated with winter rainfall. PMID:28828239

Drought impact functions as intermediate step towards drought damage assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachmair, Sophie; Svensson, Cecilia; Prosdocimi, Ilaria; Hannaford, Jamie; Helm Smith, Kelly; Svoboda, Mark; Stahl, Kerstin

2016-04-01

While damage or vulnerability functions for floods and seismic hazards have gained considerable attention, there is comparably little knowledge on drought damage or loss. On the one hand this is due to the complexity of the drought hazard affecting different domains of the hydrological cycle and different sectors of human activity. Hence, a single hazard indicator is likely not able to fully capture this multifaceted hazard. On the other hand, drought impacts are often non-structural and hard to quantify or monetize. Examples are impaired navigability of streams, restrictions on domestic water use, reduced hydropower production, reduced tree growth, and irreversible deterioration/loss of wetlands. Apart from reduced crop yield, data about drought damage or loss with adequate spatial and temporal resolution is scarce, making the development of drought damage functions difficult. As an intermediate step towards drought damage functions we exploit text-based reports on drought impacts from the European Drought Impact report Inventory and the US Drought Impact Reporter to derive surrogate information for drought damage or loss. First, text-based information on drought impacts is converted into timeseries of absence versus presence of impacts, or number of impact occurrences. Second, meaningful hydro-meteorological indicators characterizing drought intensity are identified. Third, different statistical models are tested as link functions relating drought hazard indicators with drought impacts: 1) logistic regression for drought impacts coded as binary response variable; and 2) mixture/hurdle models (zero-inflated/zero-altered negative binomial regression) and an ensemble regression tree approach for modeling the number of drought impact occurrences. Testing the predictability of (number of) drought impact occurrences based on cross-validation revealed a good agreement between observed and modeled (number of) impacts for regions at the scale of federal states or

Drought, Agriculture, and Labor: Understanding Drought Impacts and Vulnerability in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greene, C.

2015-12-01

Hazardous drought impacts are a product of not only the physical intensity of drought, but also the economic, social, and environmental characteristics of the region exposed to drought. Drought risk management requires understanding the complex links between the physical and human dimensions of drought. Yet, there is a research gap in identifying and explaining the socio-economic complexities of drought in the context of the first world, especially for economic and socially marginal groups who rely on seasonal and temporary jobs. This research uses the current drought in California as a case study to identify the socioeconomic impacts of drought on farmworker communities in California's San Joaquin Valley, with a specific focus on the relationship between drought and agricultural labor. Through both a narrative analysis of drought coverage in newspaper media, drought policy documents, and interviews with farmworkers, farmers, community based organizations, and government officials in the San Joaquin Valley, this research aims to highlight the different understandings and experiences of the human impacts of drought and drought vulnerability in order to better inform drought risk planning and policy.

Climate effects on fire regimes and tree recruitment in Black Hills ponderosa pine forests.

PubMed

Brown, Peter M

2006-10-01

Climate influences forest structure through effects on both species demography (recruitment and mortality) and disturbance regimes. Here, I compare multi-century chronologies of regional fire years and tree recruitment from ponderosa pine forests in the Black Hills of southwestern South Dakota and northeastern Wyoming to reconstructions of precipitation and global circulation indices. Regional fire years were affected by droughts and variations in both Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Fires were synchronous with La Niñas, cool phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and warm phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). These quasi-periodic circulation features are associated with drought conditions over much of the western United States. The opposite pattern (El Niño, warm PDO, cool AMO) was associated with fewer fires than expected. Regional tree recruitment largely occurred during wet periods in precipitation reconstructions, with the most abundant recruitment coeval with an extended pluvial from the late 1700s to early 1800s. Widespread even-aged cohorts likely were not the result of large crown fires causing overstory mortality, but rather were caused by optimal climate conditions that contributed to synchronous regional recruitment and longer intervals between surface fires. Synchronous recruitment driven by climate is an example of the Moran effect. The presence of abundant fire-scarred trees in multi-aged stands supports a prevailing historical model for ponderosa pine forests in which recurrent surface fires affected heterogenous forest structure, although the Black Hills apparently had a greater range of fire behavior and resulting forest structure over multi-decadal time scales than ponderosa pine forests of the Southwest that burned more often.

A Multi-Objective Advanced Design Methodology of Composite Beam-to-Column Joints Subjected to Seismic and Fire Loads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pucinotti, Raffaele; Ferrario, Fabio; Bursi, Oreste S.

2008-07-01

A multi-objective advanced design methodology dealing with seismic actions followed by fire on steel-concrete composite full strength joints with concrete filled tubes is proposed in this paper. The specimens were designed in detail in order to exhibit a suitable fire behaviour after a severe earthquake. The major aspects of the cyclic behaviour of composite joints are presented and commented upon. The data obtained from monotonic and cyclic experimental tests have been used to calibrate a model of the joint in order to perform seismic simulations on several moment resisting frames. A hysteretic law was used to take into account the seismic degradation of the joints. Finally, fire tests were conducted with the objective to evaluate fire resistance of the connection already damaged by an earthquake. The experimental activity together with FE simulation demonstrated the adequacy of the advanced design methodology.

Spatiotemporal Drought Analysis and Drought Indices Comparison in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janardhanan, A.

2017-12-01

Droughts and floods are an ever-occurring phenomenon that has been wreaking havoc on humans since the start of time. As droughts are on a very large scale, studying them within a regional context can minimize confounding factors such as climate change. Droughts and floods are extremely erratic and very difficult to predict and therefore necessitate modeling through advanced statistics. The SPI (Standard Precipitation Index) and the SPEI (Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) are two ways to temporally model drought and flood patterns across each metrological sub basin in India over a variety of different time scales. SPI only accounts for precipitation values, while the SPEI accounts for both precipitation and temperature and is commonly regarded as a more reliable drought index. Using monthly rainfall and temperature data from 1871-2016, these two indices were calculated. The results depict the drought and flood severity index, length of drought, and average SPI or SPEI value for each meteorological sub region in India. A Wilcox Ranksum test was then conducted to determine whether these two indices differed over the long term for drought analysis. The drought return periods were analyzed to determine if the population mean differed between the SPI and SPEI values. Our analysis found no statistical difference between SPI and SPEI with regards to long-term drought analysis. This indicates that temperature is not needed when modeling drought on a long-term time scale and that SPI is just as effective as SPEI, which has the potential to save a lot of time and resources on calculating drought indices.

The dynamics and drivers of fuel and fire in the Portuguese public forest.

PubMed

Fernandes, Paulo M; Loureiro, Carlos; Guiomar, Nuno; Pezzatti, Gianni B; Manso, Filipa T; Lopes, Luís

2014-12-15

The assumption that increased wildfire incidence in the Mediterranean Basin during the last decades is an outcome of changes in land use warrants an objective analysis. In this study we examine how annual area burned (BA) in the Portuguese public forest varied in relation to environmental and human-influenced drivers during the 1943-2011 period. Fire behaviour models were used to describe fuel hazard considering biomass removal, cover type changes, area burned, post-disturbance fuel accumulation, forest age-classes distribution and fuel connectivity. Biomass removal decreased rapidly beyond the 1940s, which, along with afforestation, increased fuel hazard until the 1980s; a subsequent decline was caused by increased fire activity. Change point analysis indicates upward shifts in BA in 1952 and in 1973, both corresponding to six-fold increases. Fire weather (expressed by the 90th percentile of the Canadian FWI during summer) increased over the study period, accounting for 18 and 36% of log(BA) variation before 1974 and after 1973, respectively. Regression modelling indicates that BA responds positively to fire weather, fuel hazard and number of fires in descending order of importance; pre-summer and 2-year lagged precipitation respectively decrease and increase BA, but the effects are minor and non-significant when both variables are included in the model. Land use conflicts (expressed through more fires) played a role, but it was afforestation and agricultural abandonment that supported the fire regime shifts, explaining weather-drought as the current major driver of BA as well. We conclude that bottom-up factors, i.e. human-induced changes in landscape flammability and ignition density, can enhance or override the influence of weather-drought on the fire regime in Mediterranean humid regions. A more relevant role of fuel control in fire management policies and practices is warranted by our findings. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of drought and fire on bird communities of the Kofa National Wildlife Refuge, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCreedy, Chris; van Riper, Charles; Esque, Todd C.; Darrah, Abigail J.

2016-01-08

In chapter 2, we examine the effects of the King Valley fire on breeding and migrant birds within the Kofa NWR. This fire was caused by incendiary weapons testing within Yuma Proving Ground, south of the Kofa NWRboundary (Esque and others, 2013). We found large differences in spring migrant and breeding species abundance and richness between bird count stations within the 2005 King Valley fire zone and bird count stations immediately outside the fire perimeter. Habitat loss to fire, and the subsequent slow regeneration of a Sonoran Desert flora that is not well adapted to fire disturbance, is a recognized threat to bird populations (McCreedy and others, 2009; Latta, 1999), and of all Sonoran Desert wildlife, birds may be the most impacted by loss of perennial Sonoran Desert vegetation to fire (Esque and Schwalbe, 2002). We conclude that decreases in both breeding and migrant use of washes within burned areas will likely persist into the long term (>25 years) due to slow return rates of xeroriparian woodlands lost in the fire.

Natech Events of August 17, 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake: Aftermath and Lessons Learned

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girgin, Serkan

2010-05-01

Kocaeli earthquake (Mw 7.4) on August 17, 1999 was one of the most devastating natural disasters in the modern history of Turkey. Occurred at 03:02am local time, the earthquake resulted in about 17.500 fatalities and 44.000 injured, affected 15 million people with a total property damage of over 15 billion USD. The area struck by the earthquake is one of the industrial heartlands of the country; it is densely populated and heavily industrialized, accounting for 35% of the gross national product. The earthquake caused significant structural damage, machine and equipment loss at industrial facilities, which led to many Natech events ranging from small-sized toxic chemical releases to enormous fires. Among these events, two of them were especially remarkable due to their extent and consequences: the massive fire at the TUPRAS Izmit Refinery and the acrylonitrile (ACN) spill at the AKSA acrylic fiber production plant. TUPRAS Izmit Refinery, one of the four refineries in Turkey, was the industrial facility that suffered the most damage in the earthquake. Breaking of pipes at the port terminal caused significant amount of oil spill to the sea. Collapse of a stack initiated a fire at the crude oil unit, meanwhile sparks created by the bouncing of floating roofs initiated another fire at the naptha tank farm. The damage in the infrastructure and reduced human resources owing to the earthquake hindered response and fire fighting activities. All population in the vicinity of the refinery had been evacuated that prevented rescue activities from the debris. The fire at the tank farm lasted for 3 days and could only be extinguished by international cooperation. The refinery became operational within 2.5 months and reached its full capacity in 12 months at a cost of 57.8 million USD. The earthquake damaged three of the storage tanks at the AKSA acrylic fiber production plant and caused 6,400 tons of ACN, which is a highly flammable, toxic and carcinogenic, to be released into

Spatial and temporal dimensions of fire activity in the fire-prone eastern Canadian taiga.

PubMed

Erni, Sandy; Arseneault, Dominique; Parisien, Marc-André; Bégin, Yves

2017-03-01

The forest age mosaic is a fundamental attribute of the North American boreal forest. Given that fires are generally lethal to trees, the time since last fire largely determines the composition and structure of forest stands and landscapes. Although the spatiotemporal dynamics of such mosaics has long been assumed to be random under the overwhelming influence of severe fire weather, no long-term reconstruction of mosaic dynamics has been performed from direct field evidence. In this study, we use fire length as a proxy for fire extent across the fire-prone eastern Canadian taiga and systematically reconstruct the spatiotemporal variability of fire extent and fire intervals, as well as the resulting forest age along a 340-km transect for the 1840-2013 time period. Our results indicate an extremely active fire regime over the last two centuries, with an overall burn rate of 2.1% of the land area yr -1 , mainly triggered by seasonal anomalies of high temperature and severe drought. However, the rejuvenation of the age mosaic was strongly patterned in space and time due to the intrinsically lower burn rates in wetland-dominated areas and, more importantly, to the much-reduced likelihood of burning of stands up to 50 years postfire. An extremely high burn rate of ~5% yr -1 would have characterized our study region during the last century in the absence of such fuel age effect. Although recent burn rates and fire sizes are within their range of variability of the last 175 years, a particularly severe weather event allowed a 2013 fire to spread across a large fire refuge, thus shifting the abundance of mature and old forest to a historic low. These results provide reference conditions to evaluate the significance and predict the spatiotemporal dynamics and impacts of the currently strengthening fire activity in the North American boreal forest. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Drought occurence

Treesearch

John W. Coulston

2007-01-01

Why Is Drought Important? Drought is an important forest disturbance that occurs regularly in the Western United States and irregularly in the Eastern United States (Dale and others 2001). Moderate drought stress tends to slow plant growth while severedrought stress can also reduce photosynthesis (Kareiva and others 1993). Drought can also interact with...

Simulation and monitoring tools to protect disaster management facilities against earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito, Taiki

2017-10-01

The earthquakes that hit Kumamoto Prefecture in Japan on April 14 and 16, 2016 severely damaged over 180,000 houses, including over 8,000 that were completely destroyed and others that were partially damaged according to the Cabinet Office's report as of November 14, 2016 [1]. Following these earthquakes, other parts of the world have been struck by earthquakes including Italy and New Zealand as well as the central part of Tottori Prefecture in October, where the earthquake-induced collapse of buildings has led to severe damage and casualties. The earthquakes in Kumamoto Prefecture, in fact, damaged various disaster management facilities including Uto City Hall, which significantly hindered the city's evacuation and recovery operations. One of the most crucial issues in times of disaster is securing the functions of disaster management facilities such as city halls, hospitals and fire stations. To address this issue, seismic simulations are conducted on the East and the West buildings of Toyohashi City Hall using the analysis tool developed by the author, STERA_3D, with the data of the ground motion waveform prediction for the Nankai Trough earthquake provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. As the result, it was found that the buildings have sufficient earthquake resistance. It turned out, however, that the west building is at risk for wall cracks or ceiling panel's collapse while in the east building, people would not be able to stand through the strong quakes of 7 on the seismic intensity scale and cabinets not secured to the floors or walls would fall over. Additionally, three IT strong-motion seismometers were installed in the city hall to continuously monitor vibrations. Every five minutes, the vibration data obtained by the seismometers are sent to the computers in Toyohashi University of Technology via the Internet for the analysis tools to run simulations in the cloud. If an earthquake strikes, it is able to use the results

Comprehensive drought characteristics analysis based on a nonlinear multivariate drought index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jie; Chang, Jianxia; Wang, Yimin; Li, Yunyun; Hu, Hui; Chen, Yutong; Huang, Qiang; Yao, Jun

2018-02-01

It is vital to identify drought events and to evaluate multivariate drought characteristics based on a composite drought index for better drought risk assessment and sustainable development of water resources. However, most composite drought indices are constructed by the linear combination, principal component analysis and entropy weight method assuming a linear relationship among different drought indices. In this study, the multidimensional copulas function was applied to construct a nonlinear multivariate drought index (NMDI) to solve the complicated and nonlinear relationship due to its dependence structure and flexibility. The NMDI was constructed by combining meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural variables (precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture) to better reflect the multivariate variables simultaneously. Based on the constructed NMDI and runs theory, drought events for a particular area regarding three drought characteristics: duration, peak, and severity were identified. Finally, multivariate drought risk was analyzed as a tool for providing reliable support in drought decision-making. The results indicate that: (1) multidimensional copulas can effectively solve the complicated and nonlinear relationship among multivariate variables; (2) compared with single and other composite drought indices, the NMDI is slightly more sensitive in capturing recorded drought events; and (3) drought risk shows a spatial variation; out of the five partitions studied, the Jing River Basin as well as the upstream and midstream of the Wei River Basin are characterized by a higher multivariate drought risk. In general, multidimensional copulas provides a reliable way to solve the nonlinear relationship when constructing a comprehensive drought index and evaluating multivariate drought characteristics.

Benefits of Earthquake Early Warning to Large Municipalities (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Featherstone, J.

2013-12-01

The City of Los Angeles has been involved in the testing of the Cal Tech Shake Alert, Earthquake Early Warning (EQEW) system, since February 2012. This system accesses a network of seismic monitors installed throughout California. The system analyzes and processes seismic information, and transmits a warning (audible and visual) when an earthquake occurs. In late 2011, the City of Los Angeles Emergency Management Department (EMD) was approached by Cal Tech regarding EQEW, and immediately recognized the value of the system. Simultaneously, EMD was in the process of finalizing a report by a multi-discipline team that visited Japan in December 2011, which spoke to the effectiveness of EQEW for the March 11, 2011 earthquake that struck that country. Information collected by the team confirmed that the EQEW systems proved to be very effective in alerting the population of the impending earthquake. The EQEW in Japan is also tied to mechanical safeguards, such as the stopping of high-speed trains. For a city the size and complexity of Los Angeles, the implementation of a reliable EQEW system will save lives, reduce loss, ensure effective and rapid emergency response, and will greatly enhance the ability of the region to recovery from a damaging earthquake. The current Shake Alert system is being tested at several governmental organizations and private businesses in the region. EMD, in cooperation with Cal Tech, identified several locations internal to the City where the system would have an immediate benefit. These include the staff offices within EMD, the Los Angeles Police Department's Real Time Analysis and Critical Response Division (24 hour crime center), and the Los Angeles Fire Department's Metropolitan Fire Communications (911 Dispatch). All three of these agencies routinely manage the collaboration and coordination of citywide emergency information and response during times of crisis. Having these three key public safety offices connected and included in the

Investigating dominant characteristics of fires across the Amazon during 2005-2014 through satellite data synthesis of combustion signatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, W.; Arellano, A. F.

2017-01-01

Estimates of fire emissions remain uncertain due to limited constraints on the variations in fire characteristics. Here we demonstrate the utility of space-based observations of smoke constituents in addressing this limitation. We introduce a satellite-derived smoke index (SI) as an indicator of the dominant phase of large-scale fires. This index is calculated as the ratio of the geometric mean of observed fractional enhancements (due to fire) in carbon monoxide and aerosol optical depth to that of nitrogen dioxide. We assess the usefulness of this index on fires in the Amazon. We analyze the seasonal, regional, and interannual joint distribution of SI and fire radiative power (FRP) in relation to fire hotspots, land cover, Drought Severity Index, and deforestation rate estimates. We also compare this index with an analogous quantity derived from field data or emission inventories. Our results show that SI changes from low (more flaming) to high (more smoldering) during the course of a fire season, which is consistent with the changes in observed maximum FRPs from high to low. We also find that flaming combustion is more dominant in areas where deforestation fires dominate, while smoldering combustion has a larger influence during drought years when understory fires are more likely enhanced. Lastly, we find that the spatiotemporal variation in SI is inconsistent with current emission inventories. Although we recognize some limitations of this approach, our results point to the utility of SI as a proxy for overall combustion efficiency in the parameterization of fire emission models.

Financial vulnerability of the electricity sector to drought, and the impacts of changes in generation mix

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kern, J.

2015-12-01

Electric power utilities are increasingly cognizant of the risks water scarcity and rising temperatures pose for generators that use water as a "fuel" (i.e., hydroelectric dams) and generators that use water for cooling (i.e., coal, natural gas and nuclear). At the same time, utilities are under increasing market and policy pressure to retire coal-fired generation, the primary source of carbon emissions in the electric power sector. Due to falling costs of renewables and low natural gas prices, retiring coal fired generation is mostly being replaced with combined cycle natural gas, wind and solar. An immediate benefit of this shift has been a reduction in water withdrawals per megawatt-hour and reduced thermal impacts in surface water systems. In the process of retiring older coal-fired power plants, many of which use water intensive open-loop cooling systems, utilities are making their systems less vulnerable to water scarcity and higher water temperatures. However, it is not clear whether financial risks from water scarcity will decrease as result of this change. In particular, the choice to replace coal with natural gas combined cycle plants leaves utilities financially exposed to natural gas prices, especially during droughts when natural gas generation is used to replace lost hydropower production. Utility-scale solar, while more expensive than natural gas combined cycle generation, gives utilities an opportunity to simultaneously reduce their exposure to water scarcity and fuel price risk. In this study, we assess how switching from coal to natural gas and solar changes a utility's financial exposure to drought. We model impacts on retail prices and a utility's rate of return under current conditions and non-stationarity in natural gas prices and temperature and streamflows to determine whether increased exposure to natural gas prices offsets corresponding gains in water use efficiency. We also evaluate whether utility scale solar is an effective hedge

DroughtView: Satellite Based Drought Monitoring and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartfield, K. A.; Van Leeuwen, W. J. D.; Crimmins, M.; Marsh, S. E.; Torrey, Y.; Rahr, M.; Orr, B. J.

2014-12-01

Drought is an ever growing concern within the United States and Mexico. Extended periods of below-average precipitation can adversely affect agricultural production and ecosystems, impact local water resources and create conditions prime for wildfire. DroughtView (www.droughtview.arizona.edu) is a new on-line resource for scientists, natural resource managers, and the public that brings a new perspective to remote-sensing based drought impact assessment that is not currently available. DroughtView allows users to monitor the impact of drought on vegetation cover for the entire continental United States and the northern regions of Mexico. As a spatially and temporally dynamic geospatial decision support tool, DroughtView is an excellent educational introduction to the relationship between remotely sensed vegetation condition and drought. The system serves up Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) data generated from 250 meter 16-day composite Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery from 2000 to the present. Calculation of difference from average, previous period and previous year greenness products provide the user with a proxy for drought conditions and insight on the secondary impacts of drought, such as wildfire. The various image products and overlays are served up via the ArcGIS Server platform. DroughtView serves as a useful tool to introduce and teach vegetation time series analysis to those unfamiliar with the science. High spatial resolution imagery is available as a reference layer to locate points of interest, zoom in and export images for implementation in reports and presentations. Animation of vegetation time series allows users to examine ecosystem disturbances and climate data is also available to examine the relationship between precipitation, temperature and vegetation. The tool is mobile friendly allowing users to access the system while in the field. The systems capabilities and

Interaction of fire and community development in chaparral of southern California

Treesearch

Philip J. Riggan; Suzanne Goode; Paula M. Jacks; Robert N. Lockwood

1988-01-01

Fire is an ecosystem property rather than an exogenous force in southern California chaparral, and it interacts with processes of drought-mediated canopy development, production, and mortality to affect stability of community composition. Where species that must reproduce from seed, such as Ceanothus crassifolius or Ceanothus...

Towards developing drought impact functions to advance drought monitoring and early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachmair, Sophie; Stahl, Kerstin; Hannaford, Jamie; Svoboda, Mark

2015-04-01

In natural hazard analysis, damage functions (also referred to as vulnerability or susceptibility functions) relate hazard intensity to the negative effects of the hazard event, often expressed as damage ratio or monetary loss. While damage functions for floods and seismic hazards have gained considerable attention, there is little knowledge on how drought intensity translates into ecological and socioeconomic impacts. One reason for this is the multifaceted nature of drought affecting different domains of the hydrological cycle and different sectors of human activity (for example, recognizing meteorological - agricultural - hydrological - socioeconomic drought) leading to a wide range of drought impacts. Moreover, drought impacts are often non-structural and hard to quantify or monetarize (e.g. impaired navigability of streams, bans on domestic water use, increased mortality of aquatic species). Knowledge on the relationship between drought intensity and drought impacts, i.e. negative environmental, economic or social effects experienced under drought conditions, however, is vital to identify critical thresholds for drought impact occurrence. Such information may help to improve drought monitoring and early warning (M&EW), one goal of the international DrIVER project (Drought Impacts: Vulnerability thresholds in monitoring and Early-warning Research). The aim of this study is to test the feasibility of designing "drought impact functions" for case study areas in Europe (Germany and UK) and the United States to derive thresholds meaningful for drought impact occurrence; to account for the multidimensionality of drought impacts, we use the broader term "drought impact function" over "damage function". First steps towards developing empirical drought impact functions are (1) to identify meaningful indicators characterizing the hazard intensity (e.g. indicators expressing a precipitation or streamflow deficit), (2) to identify suitable variables representing impacts

Major losses of nutrients following a severe drought in a boreal forest.

PubMed

Houle, Daniel; Lajoie, Geneviève; Duchesne, Louis

2016-11-28

Because of global warming, the frequency and severity of droughts are expected to increase, which will have an impact on forest ecosystem health worldwide 1 . Although the impact of drought on tree growth and mortality is being increasingly documented 2-4 , very little is known about the impact on nutrient cycling in forest ecosystems. Here, based on long-term monitoring data, we report nutrient fluxes in a boreal forest before, during and following a severe drought in July 2012. During and shortly after the drought, we observed high throughfall (rain collected below the canopy) concentrations of nutrient base cations (potassium, calcium and magnesium), chlorine, phosphorus and dissolved organic carbon (DOC), differing by one to two orders of magnitude relative to the long-term normal, and resulting in important canopy losses. The high throughfall fluxes had repercussions in the soil solution at a depth of 30 cm, leading to high DOC, chlorine and potassium concentrations. The net potassium losses (atmospheric deposition minus leaching losses) following the drought were especially important, being the equivalent of nearly 20 years of net losses under 'normal' conditions. Our data show that droughts have unexpected impacts on nutrient cycling through impacts on tree canopy and soils and may lead to important episodes of potassium losses from boreal forest ecosystems. The potassium losses associated with drought will add to those originating from tree harvesting and from forest fires and insect outbreaks 5-7 (with the last two being expected to increase in the future as a result of climate change), and may contribute to reduced potassium availability in boreal forests in a warming world.

Probabilistic drought intensification forecasts using temporal patterns of satellite-derived drought indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Sumin; Im, Jungho; Park, Seonyeong

2016-04-01

A drought occurs when the condition of below-average precipitation in a region continues, resulting in prolonged water deficiency. A drought can last for weeks, months or even years, so can have a great influence on various ecosystems including human society. In order to effectively reduce agricultural and economic damage caused by droughts, drought monitoring and forecasts are crucial. Drought forecast research is typically conducted using in situ observations (or derived indices such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)) and physical models. Recently, satellite remote sensing has been used for short term drought forecasts in combination with physical models. In this research, drought intensification was predicted using satellite-derived drought indices such as Normalized Difference Drought Index (NDDI), Normalized Multi-band Drought Index (NMDI), and Scaled Drought Condition Index (SDCI) generated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products over the Korean Peninsula. Time series of each drought index at the 8 day interval was investigated to identify drought intensification patterns. Drought condition at the previous time step (i.e., 8 days before) and change in drought conditions between two previous time steps (e.g., between 16 days and 8 days before the time step to forecast) Results show that among three drought indices, SDCI provided the best performance to predict drought intensification compared to NDDI and NMDI through qualitative assessment. When quantitatively compared with SPI, SDCI showed a potential to be used for forecasting short term drought intensification. Finally this research provided a SDCI-based equation to predict short term drought intensification optimized over the Korean Peninsula.

Scientists assess impact of Indonesia fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

The fires burning in Indonesia over the past several months are setting aflame the biomass and wildlife habitat of the tropical forests, spreading a dangerously unhealthy haze across the populous country and nearby nations in southeast Asia, causing transportation hazards, and sending plumes of smoke up into the troposphere.Most of the fires have been set—by big landowners, commercial loggers, and small farmers—in attempts to clear and cultivate the land, as people have done in the past. But this year a drought induced by El Niño limited the rainfall that could help extinguish the flames and wash away the smoke and haze. In addition, some scientists say that smoke could even delay the monsoon, which usually arrives in early November.

Drought Risk Identification: Early Warning System of Seasonal Agrometeorological Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalecios, Nicolas; Spyropoulos, Nicos V.; Tarquis, Ana M.

2014-05-01

By considering drought as a hazard, drought types are classified into three categories, namely meteorological or climatological, agrometeorological or agricultural and hydrological drought and as a fourth class the socioeconomic impacts can be considered. This paper addresses agrometeorological drought affecting agriculture within the risk management framework. Risk management consists of risk assessment, as well as a feedback on the adopted risk reduction measures. And risk assessment comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This paper deals with the quantification and monitoring of agrometeorological drought, which constitute part of risk identification. For the quantitative assessment of agrometeorological or agricultural drought, as well as the computation of spatiotemporal features, one of the most reliable and widely used indices is applied, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). The computation of VHI is based on satellite data of temperature and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The spatiotemporal features of drought, which are extracted from VHI are: areal extent, onset and end time, duration and severity. In this paper, a 20-year (1981-2001) time series of NOAA/AVHRR satellite data is used, where monthly images of VHI are extracted. Application is implemented in Thessaly, which is the major agricultural region of Greece characterized by vulnerable and drought-prone agriculture. The results show that every year there is a seasonal agrometeorological drought with a gradual increase in the areal extent and severity with peaks appearing usually during the summer. Drought monitoring is conducted by monthly remotely sensed VHI images. Drought early warning is developed using empirical relationships of severity and areal extent. In particular, two second-order polynomials are fitted, one for low and the other for high severity drought, respectively. The two fitted curves offer a seasonal

Post-Disturbance Plant Community Dynamics following a Rare Natural-Origin Fire in a Tsuga canadensis Forest

PubMed Central

Murray, Bryan D.; Holmes, Stacie A.; Webster, Christopher R.; Witt, Jill C.

2012-01-01

Opportunities to directly study infrequent forest disturbance events often lead to valuable information about vegetation dynamics. In mesic temperate forests of North America, stand-replacing crown fire occurs infrequently, with a return interval of 2000–3000 years. Rare chance events, however, may have profound impacts on the developmental trajectories of forest ecosystems. For example, it has been postulated that stand-replacing fire may have been an important factor in the establishment of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) stands in the northern Great Lakes region. Nevertheless, experimental evidence linking hemlock regeneration to non-anthropogenic fire is limited. To clarify this potential relationship, we monitored vegetation dynamics following a rare lightning-origin crown fire in a Wisconsin hemlock-hardwood forest. We also studied vegetation in bulldozer-created fire breaks and adjacent undisturbed forest. Our results indicate that hemlock establishment was rare in the burned area but moderately common in the scarified bulldozer lines compared to the reference area. Early-successional, non-arboreal species including Rubus spp., Vaccinium angustifolium, sedges (Carex spp.), grasses, Epilobium ciliatum, and Pteridium aquilinium were the most abundant post-fire species. Collectively, our results suggest that competing vegetation and moisture stress resulting from drought may reduce the efficacy of scarification treatments as well as the usefulness of fire for preparing a suitable seedbed for hemlock. The increasing prevalence of growing-season drought suggests that silvicultural strategies based on historic disturbance regimes may need to be reevaluated for mesic species. PMID:22928044

Drought sensitivity of Amazonian carbon balance revealed by atmospheric measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gatti, L. V.; Gloor, M.; Miller, J. B.; Doughty, C. E.; Malhi, Y.; Domingues, L. G.; Basso, L. S.; Martinewski, A.; Correia, C. S. C.; Borges, V. F.; Freitas, S.; Braz, R.; Anderson, L. O.; Rocha, H.; Grace, J.; Phillips, O. L.; Lloyd, J.

2014-02-01

Feedbacks between land carbon pools and climate provide one of the largest sources of uncertainty in our predictions of global climate. Estimates of the sensitivity of the terrestrial carbon budget to climate anomalies in the tropics and the identification of the mechanisms responsible for feedback effects remain uncertain. The Amazon basin stores a vast amount of carbon, and has experienced increasingly higher temperatures and more frequent floods and droughts over the past two decades. Here we report seasonal and annual carbon balances across the Amazon basin, based on carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide measurements for the anomalously dry and wet years 2010 and 2011, respectively. We find that the Amazon basin lost 0.48+/-0.18 petagrams of carbon per year (PgCyr-1) during the dry year but was carbon neutral (0.06+/-0.1PgCyr-1) during the wet year. Taking into account carbon losses from fire by using carbon monoxide measurements, we derived the basin net biome exchange (that is, the carbon flux between the non-burned forest and the atmosphere) revealing that during the dry year, vegetation was carbon neutral. During the wet year, vegetation was a net carbon sink of 0.25+/-0.14PgCyr-1, which is roughly consistent with the mean long-term intact-forest biomass sink of 0.39+/-0.10PgCyr-1 previously estimated from forest censuses. Observations from Amazonian forest plots suggest the suppression of photosynthesis during drought as the primary cause for the 2010 sink neutralization. Overall, our results suggest that moisture has an important role in determining the Amazonian carbon balance. If the recent trend of increasing precipitation extremes persists, the Amazon may become an increasing carbon source as a result of both emissions from fires and the suppression of net biome exchange by drought.

Drought sensitivity of Amazonian carbon balance revealed by atmospheric measurements.

PubMed

Gatti, L V; Gloor, M; Miller, J B; Doughty, C E; Malhi, Y; Domingues, L G; Basso, L S; Martinewski, A; Correia, C S C; Borges, V F; Freitas, S; Braz, R; Anderson, L O; Rocha, H; Grace, J; Phillips, O L; Lloyd, J

2014-02-06

Feedbacks between land carbon pools and climate provide one of the largest sources of uncertainty in our predictions of global climate. Estimates of the sensitivity of the terrestrial carbon budget to climate anomalies in the tropics and the identification of the mechanisms responsible for feedback effects remain uncertain. The Amazon basin stores a vast amount of carbon, and has experienced increasingly higher temperatures and more frequent floods and droughts over the past two decades. Here we report seasonal and annual carbon balances across the Amazon basin, based on carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide measurements for the anomalously dry and wet years 2010 and 2011, respectively. We find that the Amazon basin lost 0.48 ± 0.18 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C yr(-1)) during the dry year but was carbon neutral (0.06 ± 0.1 Pg C yr(-1)) during the wet year. Taking into account carbon losses from fire by using carbon monoxide measurements, we derived the basin net biome exchange (that is, the carbon flux between the non-burned forest and the atmosphere) revealing that during the dry year, vegetation was carbon neutral. During the wet year, vegetation was a net carbon sink of 0.25 ± 0.14 Pg C yr(-1), which is roughly consistent with the mean long-term intact-forest biomass sink of 0.39 ± 0.10 Pg C yr(-1) previously estimated from forest censuses. Observations from Amazonian forest plots suggest the suppression of photosynthesis during drought as the primary cause for the 2010 sink neutralization. Overall, our results suggest that moisture has an important role in determining the Amazonian carbon balance. If the recent trend of increasing precipitation extremes persists, the Amazon may become an increasing carbon source as a result of both emissions from fires and the suppression of net biome exchange by drought.

Atmospheric CO2 measurements reveal strong drought sensitivity of Amazonian carbon balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, J. B.; Gatti, L.; Gloor, M.; Doughty, C.; Malhi, Y.; Domingues, L. G.; Basso, L. S.; Martinewski, A.; Correia, C.; Borges, V.; Freitas, S. R.; Braz, R.; Anderson, L.; Rocha, H.; Grace, J.; Phillips, O.; Lloyd, J.

2013-12-01

Potential feedbacks between land carbon pools and climate are one of the largest sources of uncertainty for predicting future global climate, but estimates of their sensitivity to climate anomalies in the tropics and determination of underlying mechanisms are either incomplete or strongly model-based. Amazonia alone stores ~150-200 Pg of labile carbon, and has experienced an increasing trend in temperature and extreme floods and droughts over the last two decades. Here we report the first Amazon Basin-wide seasonal and annual carbon balances based on tropospheric greenhouse gas sampling, during an anomalously dry and a wet year, 2010 and 2011, providing the first whole-system assessment of sensitivity to such conditions. During 2010, the Amazon Basin lost 0.5×0.2 PgCyr-1 while in 2011 it was approximately carbon neutral (0.06×0.1 PgCyr-1). Carbon loss via fire was 0.5×0.1 PgCyr-1 in 2010 and 0.3×0.1 PgCyr-1 in 2011, as derived from Basin-wide carbon monoxide (CO) enhancements. Subtracting fire emissions from total carbon flux to derive Basin net biome exchange (NBE) reveals that in 2010 the non-fire regions of the Basin were carbon neutral; in 2011 they were a net carbon sink of -0.3×0.1 PgC yr-1, roughly consistent with a three-decade long intact-forest biomass sink of ~ -0.5×0.3 PgCyr-1 estimated from forest censuses. Altogether, our results suggest that if the recent trend of precipitation extremes persists, the Amazon region may become an increasing carbon source as a result of both emissions from fires and suppression of NBE by drought.

Does drought legacy alter the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics from drought?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahn, M.; Hasibeder, R.; Fuchslueger, L.; Ingrisch, J.; Ladreiter-Knauss, T.; Lair, G.; Reinthaler, D.; Richter, A.; Kaufmann, R.

2016-12-01

Climate projections suggest an increase in the frequency and the severity of extreme climatic events, such as droughts, with consequences for the carbon cycle and its feedbacks to the climate system. An important implication of increasing drought frequency is that possible legacies of previous droughts may increasingly affect ecosystem responses to new drought events, though this has been rarely tested. Based on a series of severe experimental droughts performed during nine subsequent years on a mountain grassland in the Austrian Alps, we present evidence of effects of drought legacies on the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics from drought and analyse the underlying mechanisms. Both single and recurrent droughts led to increased aboveground productivity during drought recovery relative to control plots, favoring the biomass production and leaf area of grass species more strongly than of forbs. Belowground productivity was significantly increased during recovery. This led to higher total root length, even though specific root length was strongly reduced during recovery, particularly after recurrent drought events. Following rewetting, the temperature dependence of soil respiration was increasingly diminished and the Birch effect declined with progressive recurrence of droughts. This was paralleled by a change in soil aggregate stability and soil porosity in plots repeatedly exposed to drought. Pulse-labelling experiments revealed effects of drought legacy on plant carbon uptake and belowground allocation and altered microbial turnover of recent plant-derived carbon during and after a subsequent drought. Shifts in tissue nitrogen concentration indicate that drought effects on soil nitrogen turnover and availability could play an important role in the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics following both single and recurrent droughts. In conclusion, drought legacies can alter the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics from drought, the effects increasing with

Does drought legacy alter the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics from drought?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahn, Michael; Hasibeder, Roland; Fuchslueger, Lucia; Ingrisch, Johannes; Ladreiter-Knauss, Thomas; Lair, Georg; Reinthaler, David; Richter, Andreas; Kaufmann, Rüdiger

2017-04-01

Climate projections suggest an increase in the frequency and the severity of extreme climatic events, such as droughts, with consequences for the carbon cycle and its feedbacks to the climate system. An important implication of increasing drought frequency is that possible legacies of previous droughts may increasingly affect ecosystem responses to new drought events, though this has been rarely tested. Based on a series of severe experimental droughts performed during nine subsequent years on a mountain grassland in the Austrian Alps, we present evidence of effects of drought legacies on the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics from drought and analyse the underlying mechanisms. Both single and recurrent droughts led to increased aboveground productivity during drought recovery relative to control plots, favoring the biomass production and leaf area of grass species more strongly than of forbs. Belowground productivity was significantly increased during recovery. This led to higher total root length, even though specific root length was strongly reduced during recovery, particularly after recurrent drought events. Following rewetting, the temperature dependence of soil respiration was increasingly diminished and the Birch effect declined with progressive recurrence of droughts. This was paralleled by a change in soil aggregate stability and soil porosity in plots repeatedly exposed to drought. Isotopic pulse-labelling experiments revealed effects of drought legacy on plant carbon uptake and belowground allocation and altered microbial turnover of recent plant-derived carbon during and after a subsequent drought. Shifts in tissue nitrogen concentration indicate that drought effects on soil nitrogen turnover and availability could play an important role in the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics following both single and recurrent droughts. In conclusion, drought legacies can alter the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics from drought, the effects increasing

Fire-climate-human interactions during the postglacial period at Sunrise Ridge, Mount Rainier National Park, Washington (USA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, Megan K.; Lukens, Michael L.; McCutcheon, Patrick T.; Burtchard, Greg C.

2017-12-01

With the creation of Mount Rainier National Park (MORA) in 1899 came the active management of the park's landscapes and a heavy emphasis on fire suppression. Today, managers at MORA seek to better manage current fire activity; however, this requires an improved understanding of past fire activity on the mountain. In this study high-resolution macroscopic charcoal analysis and pollen analysis of lake sediment records was used to reconstruct the postglacial fire and vegetation history for the Sunrise Ridge area of MORA. Fire activity was lowest during the Late Glacial when vegetation was sparse and climate was cool and dry. Fire activity increased during the early Holocene as the regional climate warmed and dried, and burnable biomass became more abundant. Fire activity continued to increase into the middle Holocene (until ca. 6600 cal yr BP) even as the regional climate became wetter and eventually cooler; the modern-day mesic forest and subalpine meadow landscapes of the park established at this time. Fire activity was generally highest and mean fire return intervals were lowest on Sunrise Ridge during the late Holocene, and are consistent with tree-ring based estimates of fire frequency. The similarity between the Sunrise Ridge and other paleofire records in the Pacific Northwest suggests that broad-scale climatic shifts, such as the retreat of the Cordilleran ice sheet and changes in annual insolation, as well as increased interannual climate variability (i.e., drought) particularly in the middle to late Holocene, were responsible for changes in fire activity during the postglacial period. However, abundant and increasing archaeological evidence from Sunrise Ridge during the middle to late Holocene suggests that humans may have also influenced the landscape at this time. It is likely that fires will continue to increase at MORA as drought becomes a more frequent occurrence in the Pacific Northwest.

Modelling the role of fires in the terrestrial carbon balance by incorporating SPITFIRE into the global vegetation model ORCHIDEE - Part 2: Carbon emissions and the role of fires in the global carbon balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, C.; Ciais, P.; Cadule, P.; Thonicke, K.; van Leeuwen, T. T.

2015-05-01

Carbon dioxide emissions from wild and anthropogenic fires return the carbon absorbed by plants to the atmosphere, and decrease the sequestration of carbon by land ecosystems. Future climate warming will likely increase the frequency of fire-triggering drought, so that the future terrestrial carbon uptake will depend on how fires respond to altered climate variation. In this study, we modelled the role of fires in the global terrestrial carbon balance for 1901-2012, using the ORCHIDEE global vegetation model equipped with the SPITFIRE model. We conducted two simulations with and without the fire module being activated, using a static land cover. The simulated global fire carbon emissions for 1997-2009 are 2.1 Pg C yr-1, which is close to the 2.0 Pg C yr-1 as estimated by GFED3.1. The simulated land carbon uptake after accounting for emissions for 2003-2012 is 3.1 Pg C yr-1, which is within the uncertainty of the residual carbon sink estimation (2.8 ± 0.8 Pg C yr-1). Fires are found to reduce the terrestrial carbon uptake by 0.32 Pg C yr-1 over 1901-2012, or 20% of the total carbon sink in a world without fire. The fire-induced land sink reduction (SRfire) is significantly correlated with climate variability, with larger sink reduction occurring in warm and dry years, in particular during El Niño events. Our results suggest a "fire respiration partial compensation". During the 10 lowest SRfire years (SRfire = 0.17 Pg C yr-1), fires mainly compensate for the heterotrophic respiration that would occur in a world without fire. By contrast, during the 10 highest SRfire fire years (SRfire = 0.49 Pg C yr-1), fire emissions far exceed their respiration partial compensation and create a larger reduction in terrestrial carbon uptake. Our findings have important implications for the future role of fires in the terrestrial carbon balance, because the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to sequester carbon will be diminished by future climate change characterized by increased

Daily fire occurrence in northern Eurasia from 2002 to 2009

Treesearch

W. M. Hao; H. M. Eissinger; A. Petkov; B. L. Nordgren; Shawn Urbanski

2010-01-01

Northern Eurasia, covering 20% of the global land mass and containing 70% of boreal forest, is extremely sensitive to climate changes. Warmer temperatures in this region have led to less snowfall, earlier spring, longer growing season, and reduced moisture for soil and vegetation in summer. Recently, severe drought and record high temperatures caused catastrophic fires...

Utilizing Objective Drought Thresholds to Improve Drought Monitoring with the SPI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leasor, Z. T.; Quiring, S. M.

2017-12-01

Drought is a prominent climatic hazard in the south-central United States. Droughts are frequently monitored using the severity categories determined by the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM). This study uses the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to conduct a drought frequency analysis across Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas using PRISM precipitation data from 1900-2015. The SPI is shown to be spatiotemporally variant across the south-central United States. In particular, utilizing the default USDM severity thresholds may underestimate drought severity in arid regions. Objective drought thresholds were implemented by fitting a CDF to each location's SPI distribution. This approach results in a more homogeneous distribution of drought frequencies across each severity category. Results also indicate that it may be beneficial to develop objective drought thresholds for each season and SPI timescale. This research serves as a proof-of-concept and demonstrates how drought thresholds should be objectively developed so that they are appropriate for each climatic region.

Protection of agriculture against drought in Slovenia based on vulnerability and risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dovžak, M.; Stanič, S.; Bergant, K.; Gregorič, G.

2012-04-01

Past and recent extreme events, like earthquakes, extreme droughts, heat waves, flash floods and volcanic eruptions continuously remind us that natural hazards are an integral component of the global environment. Despite rapid improvement of detection techniques many of these events evade long-term or even mid-term prediction and can thus have disastrous impacts on affected communities and environment. Effective mitigation and preparedness strategies will be possible to develop only after gaining the understanding on how and where such hazards may occur, what causes them, what circumstances increase their severity, and what their impacts may be and their study has the recent years emerged as under the common title of natural hazard management. The first step in natural risk management is risk identification, which includes hazard analysis and monitoring, vulnerability analysis and determination of the risk level. The presented research focuses on drought, which is at the present already the most widespread as well as still unpredictable natural hazard. Its primary aim was to assess the frequency and the consequences of droughts in Slovenia based on drought events in the past, to develop methodology for drought vulnerability and risk assessment that can be applied in Slovenia and wider in South-Eastern Europe, to prepare maps of drought risk and crop vulnerability and to guidelines to reduce the vulnerability of the crops. Using the amounts of plant available water in the soil, slope inclination, solar radiation, land use and irrigation infrastructure data sets as inputs, we obtained vulnerability maps for Slovenia using GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis with a weighted linear combination of the input parameters. The weight configuration was optimized by comparing the modelled crop damage to the assessed actual damage, which was available for the extensive drought case in 2006. Drought risk was obtained quantitatively as a function of hazard and

Effectiveness of protected areas in mitigating fire within their boundaries: case study of Chiapas, Mexico.

PubMed

Román-Cuesta, María Rosa; Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi

2006-08-01

Since the severe 1982-1983 El Niño drought, recurrent burning has been reported inside tropical protected areas (TPAs). Despite the key role of fire in habitat degradation, little is known about the effectiveness of TPAs in mitigating fire incidence and burned areas. We used a GPS fire database (1995-2005) (n=3590 forest fires) obtained from the National Forest Commission to compare fire incidence (number of fires) and burned areas inside TPAs and their surrounding adjacent buffer areas in Southern Mexico (Chiapas). Burned areas inside parks ranged from 2% (Palenque) to 45% (Lagunas de Montebello) of a park's area, and the amount burned was influenced by two severe El Niño events (1998 and 2003). These two years together resulted in 67% and 46% of the total area burned in TPAs and buffers, respectively during the period under analysis. Larger burned areas in TPAs than in their buffers were exclusively related to the extent of natural habitats (flammable area excluding agrarian and pasture lands). Higher fuel loads together with access and extinction difficulties were likely behind this trend. A higher incidence of fire in TPAs than in their buffers was exclusively related to anthropogenic factors such as higher road densities and agrarian extensions. Our results suggest that TPAs are failing to mitigate fire impacts, with both fire incidence and total burned areas being significantly higher in the reserves than in adjacent buffer areas. Management plans should consider those factors that facilitate fires in TPAs: anthropogenic origin of fires, sensitivity of TPAs to El Niñio-droughts, large fuel loads and fuel continuity inside parks, and limited financial resources. Consideration of these factors favors lines of action such as alternatives to the use of fire (e.g., mucuna-maize system), climatic prediction to follow the evolution of El Niño, fuel management strategies that favor extinction practices, and the strengthening of local communities and ecotourism.

Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes.

PubMed

Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

2016-07-15

Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

El Nino and Health Risks from Landscape Fire Emissions in Southeast Asia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marlier, Miriam E.; Defries, Ruth S.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Kinney, Patrick L.; Randerson, James T.; Shindell, Drew T.; Chen, Yang; Faluvegi, Greg

2013-01-01

Emissions from landscape fires affect both climate and air quality. Here, we combine satellite-derived fire estimates and atmospheric modelling to quantify health effects from fire emissions in southeast Asia from 1997 to 2006. This region has large interannual variability in fire activity owing to coupling between El Nino-induced droughts and anthropogenic land-use change. We show that during strong El Nino years, fires contribute up to 200 micrograms per cubic meter and 50 ppb in annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone surface concentrations near fire sources, respectively. This corresponds to a fire contribution of 200 additional days per year that exceed the World Health Organization 50 micrograms per cubic metre 24-hr PM(sub 2.5) interim target and an estimated 10,800 (6,800-14,300)-person (approximately 2 percent) annual increase in regional adult cardiovascular mortality. Our results indicate that reducing regional deforestation and degradation fires would improve public health along with widely established benefits from reducing carbon emissions, preserving biodiversity and maintaining ecosystem services.

Drought in a human-modified world: reframing drought definitions, understanding, and analysis approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Loon, Anne F.; Stahl, Kerstin; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Clark, Julian; Rangecroft, Sally; Wanders, Niko; Gleeson, Tom; Van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Hannaford, Jamie; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Hannah, David M.; Sheffield, Justin; Svoboda, Mark; Verbeiren, Boud; Wagener, Thorsten; Van Lanen, Henny A. J.

2016-09-01

In the current human-modified world, or Anthropocene, the state of water stores and fluxes has become dependent on human as well as natural processes. Water deficits (or droughts) are the result of a complex interaction between meteorological anomalies, land surface processes, and human inflows, outflows, and storage changes. Our current inability to adequately analyse and manage drought in many places points to gaps in our understanding and to inadequate data and tools. The Anthropocene requires a new framework for drought definitions and research. Drought definitions need to be revisited to explicitly include human processes driving and modifying soil moisture drought and hydrological drought development. We give recommendations for robust drought definitions to clarify timescales of drought and prevent confusion with related terms such as water scarcity and overexploitation. Additionally, our understanding and analysis of drought need to move from single driver to multiple drivers and from uni-directional to multi-directional. We identify research gaps and propose analysis approaches on (1) drivers, (2) modifiers, (3) impacts, (4) feedbacks, and (5) changing the baseline of drought in the Anthropocene. The most pressing research questions are related to the attribution of drought to its causes, to linking drought impacts to drought characteristics, and to societal adaptation and responses to drought. Example questions include

• (i) What are the dominant drivers of drought in different parts of the world? (ii) How do human modifications of drought enhance or alleviate drought severity? (iii) How do impacts of drought depend on the physical characteristics of drought vs. the vulnerability of people or the environment? (iv) To what extent are physical and human drought processes coupled, and can feedback loops be identified and altered to lessen or mitigate drought? (v) How should we adapt our drought analysis to

• Projections of future meteorological drought and wet periods in the Amazon

  PubMed Central

  Duffy, Philip B.; Brando, Paulo; Asner, Gregory P.; Field, Christopher B.

  2015-01-01

  Future intensification of Amazon drought resulting from climate change may cause increased fire activity, tree mortality, and emissions of carbon to the atmosphere across large areas of Amazonia. To provide a basis for addressing these issues, we examine properties of recent and future meteorological droughts in the Amazon in 35 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that the CMIP5 climate models, as a group, simulate important properties of historical meteorological droughts in the Amazon. In addition, this group of models reproduces observed relationships between Amazon precipitation and regional sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific and the North Atlantic oceans. Assuming the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario for future drivers of climate change, the models project increases in the frequency and geographic extent of meteorological drought in the eastern Amazon, and the opposite in the West. For the region as a whole, the CMIP5 models suggest that the area affected by mild and severe meteorological drought will nearly double and triple, respectively, by 2100. Extremes of wetness are also projected to increase after 2040. Specifically, the frequency of periods of unusual wetness and the area affected by unusual wetness are projected to increase after 2040 in the Amazon as a whole, including in locations where annual mean precipitation is projected to decrease. Our analyses suggest that continued emissions of greenhouse gases will increase the likelihood of extreme events that have been shown to alter and degrade Amazonian forests. PMID:26460046

• Predicting drought propagation within peat layers using a three dimensionally explicit voxel based model

  NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

  Condro, A. A.; Pawitan, H.; Risdiyanto, I.

  2018-05-01

  Peatlands are very vulnerable to widespread fires during dry seasons, due to availability of aboveground fuel biomass on the surface and belowground fuel biomass on the sub-surface. Hence, understanding drought propagation occurring within peat layers is crucial with regards to disaster mitigation activities on peatlands. Using a three dimensionally explicit voxel-based model of peatland hydrology, this study predicted drought propagation time lags into sub-surface peat layers after drought events occurrence on the surface of about 1 month during La-Nina and 2.5 months during El-Nino. The study was carried out on a high-conservation-value area of oil palm plantation in West Kalimantan. Validity of the model was evaluated and its applicability for disaster mitigation was discussed. The animations of simulated voxels are available at: goo.gl/HDRMYN (El-Nino 2015 episode) and goo.gl/g1sXPl (La-Nina 2016 episode). The model is available at: goo.gl/RiuMQz.

• The Drought Task Force and Research on Understanding, Predicting, and Monitoring Drought

  NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

  Barrie, D.; Mariotti, A.; Archambault, H. M.; Hoerling, M. P.; Wood, E. F.; Koster, R. D.; Svoboda, M.

  2016-12-01

  Drought has caused serious social and economic impacts throughout the history of the United States. All Americans are susceptible to the direct and indirect threats drought poses to the Nation. Drought challenges agricultural productivity and reduces the quantity and quality of drinking water supplies upon which communities and industries depend. Drought jeopardizes the integrity of critical infrastructure, causes extensive economic and health impacts, harms ecosystems, and increases energy costs. Ensuring the availability of clean, sufficient, and reliable water resources is a top national and NOAA priority. The Climate Program Office's Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program, in partnership with the NOAA-led National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), is focused on improving our understanding of drought causes, evolution, amelioration, and impacts as well as improving our capability to monitor and predict drought. These capabilities and knowledge are critical to providing communities with actionable, reliable information to increase drought preparedness and resilience. This poster will present information on the MAPP-organized Drought Task Force, a consortium of investigators funded by the MAPP program in partnership with NIDIS to advance drought understanding, monitoring, and prediction. Information on Task Force activities, products, and MAPP drought initiatives will be described in the poster, including the Task Force's ongoing focus on the California drought, its predictability, and its causes.

• Contributions of insects and droughts to growth decline of trembling aspen mixed boreal forest of western Canada.

  PubMed

  Chen, Lei; Huang, Jian-Guo; Dawson, Andria; Zhai, Lihong; Stadt, Kenneth J; Comeau, Philip G; Whitehouse, Caroline

  2018-02-01

  Insects, diseases, fire and drought and other disturbances associated with global climate change contribute to forest decline and mortality in many parts of the world. Forest decline and mortality related to drought or insect outbreaks have been observed in North American aspen forests. However, little research has been done to partition and estimate their relative contributions to growth declines. In this study, we combined tree-ring width and basal area increment series from 40 trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) sites along a latitudinal gradient (from 52° to 58°N) in western Canada and attempted to investigate the effect of drought and insect outbreaks on growth decline, and simultaneously partition and quantify their relative contributions. Results indicated that the influence of drought on forest decline was stronger than insect outbreaks, although both had significant effects. Furthermore, the influence of drought and insect outbreaks showed spatiotemporal variability. In addition, our data suggest that insect outbreaks could be triggered by warmer early spring temperature instead of drought, implicating that potentially increased insect outbreaks are expected with continued warming springs, which may further exacerbate growth decline and death in North America aspen mixed forests. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Drought and heatwaves in Europe: historical reconstruction and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaniego, Luis; Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Rakovec, Olda; Wood, Eric; Sheffield, Justin; Pan, Ming; Wanders, Niko; Prudhomme, Christel

2017-04-01

Heat waves and droughts are creeping hydro-meteorological events that may bring societies and natural systems to their limits by inducing large famines, increasing health risks to the population, creating drinking and irrigation water shortfalls, inducing natural fires and degradation of soil and water quality, and in many cases causing large socio-economic losses. Europe, in particular, has endured large scale drought-heat-wave events during the recent past (e.g., 2003 European drought), which have induced enormous socio-economic losses as well as casualties. Recent studies showed that the prediction of droughts and heatwaves is subject to large-scale forcing and parametric uncertainties that lead to considerable uncertainties in the projections of extreme characteristics such as drought magnitude/duration and area under drought, among others. Future projections are also heavily influenced by the RCP scenario uncertainty as well as the coarser spatial resolution of the models. The EDgE project funded by the Copernicus programme (C3S) provides an unique opportunity to investigate the evolution of droughts and heatwaves from 1950 until 2099 over the Pan-EU domain at a scale of 5x5 km2. In this project, high-resolution multi-model hydrologic simulations with the mHM (www.ufz.de/mhm), Noah-MP, VIC and PCR-GLOBWB have been completed for the historical period 1955-2015. Climate projections have been carried out with five CMIP-5 GCMs: GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M from 2006 to 2099 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Using these multi-model unprecedented simulations, daily soil moisture index and temperature anomalies since 1955 until 2099 will be estimated. Using the procedure proposed by Samaniego et al. (2013), the probabilities of exceeding the benchmark events in the reference period 1980-2010 will be estimated for each RCP scenario. References http

Simulating the effects of frequent fire on southern california coastal shrublands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, A.D.; Franklin, J.; Keeley, J.E.

2006-01-01

Fire disturbance is a primary agent of change in the mediterranean-climate chaparral shrublands of southern California, USA. However, fire frequency has been steadily increasing in coastal regions due to ignitions at the growing wildland-urban interface. Although chaparral is resilient to a range of fire frequencies, successively short intervals between fires can threaten the persistence of some species, and the effects may differ according to plant functional type. California shrublands support high levels of biological diversity, including many endangered and endemic species. Therefore, it is important to understand the long-term effects of altered fire regimes on these communities. A spatially explicit simulation model of landscape disturbance and succession (LANDIS) was used to predict the effects of frequent fire on the distribution of dominant plant functional types in a study area administered by the National Park Service. Shrubs dependent on fire-cued seed germination were most sensitive to frequent fire and lost substantial cover to other functional types, including drought-deciduous subshrubs that typify coastal sage scrub and nonnative annual grasses. Shrubs that resprout were favored by higher fire frequencies and gained in extent under these treatments. Due to this potential for vegetation change, caution is advised against the widespread use of prescribed fire in the region. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Development of a Global Fire Weather Database

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Field, R. D.; Spessa, A. C.; Aziz, N. A.; Camia, A.; Cantin, A.; Carr, R.; de Groot, W. J.; Dowdy, A. J.; Flannigan, M. D.; Manomaiphiboon, K.;

Introducing GFWED: The Global Fire Weather Database

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Field, R. D.; Spessa, A. C.; Aziz, N. A.; Camia, A.; Cantin, A.; Carr, R.; de Groot, W. J.; Dowdy, A. J.; Flannigan, M. D.; Manomaiphiboon, K.;

Forest fires and lightning activity during the outstanding 2003 and 2005 fire seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, Ana; Ramos, Alexandre; Trigo, Ricardo

2013-04-01

Wildfires in southern Europe cause frequent extensive economical and ecological losses and, even human casualties. Comparatively to other Mediterranean countries, Portugal is the country with more burnt area and fires per unit area in the last decade, mainly during the summer season (Pereira et al., 2011). According to the fire records available, between 1980 and 2009, wildfires have affected over 3 million hectares in Portugal (JRC, 2011), which corresponds to approximately a third of the Portuguese Continental territory. The main factors that influence fire ignition and propagation are: (1) the presence of fuel (i.e. vegetation); (2) climate and weather; (3) socioeconomic conditions that affect land use/land cover patterns, fire-prevention and fire-fighting capacity and (4) topography. Specifically, weather (e.g. wind, temperature, precipitation, humidity, and lightning occurrence) plays an important role in fire behavior, affecting both ignition and spread of wildfires. Some countries have a relatively large fraction of fires caused by lightning, e.g. northwestern USA, Canada, Russia (). In contrast, Portugal has only a small percentage of fire records caused by lightning. Although significant doubts remain for the majority of fires in the catalog since they were cataloged without a likely cause. The recent years of 2003 and 2005 were particularly outstanding for fire activity in Portugal, registering, respectively, total burned areas of 425 726 ha and 338 262 ha. However, while the 2003 was triggered by an exceptional heatwave that struck the entire western Europe, the 2005 fire season registered was coincident with one of the most severe droughts of the 20th century. In this work we have used mainly two different databases: 1) the Portuguese Rural Fire Database (PRFD) which is representative of rural fires that have occurred in Continental Portugal, 2001-2011, with the original data provided by the Autoridade Florestal Nacional (AFN, 2011); 2) lightning

Dynamics of stem water uptake among isohydric and anisohydric species experiencing a severe drought.

PubMed

Yi, Koong; Dragoni, Danilo; Phillips, Richard P; Roman, D Tyler; Novick, Kimberly A

2017-10-01

Predicting the impact of drought on forest ecosystem processes requires an understanding of trees' species-specific responses to drought, especially in the Eastern USA, where species composition is highly dynamic due to historical changes in land use and fire regime. Here, we adapted a framework that classifies trees' water-use strategy along the spectrum of isohydric to anisohydric behavior to determine the responses of three canopy-dominant species to drought. We used a collection of leaf-level gas exchange, tree-level sap flux and stand-level eddy covariance data collected in south-central Indiana from 2011 to 2013, which included an unusually severe drought in the summer of 2012. Our goal was to assess how patterns in the radial profile of sap flux and reliance on hydraulic capacitance differed among species of contrasting water-use strategies. In isohydric species, which included sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) and tulip poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera L.), we found that the sap flux in the outer xylem experienced dramatic declines during drought, but sap flux at inner xylem was buffered from reductions in water availability. In contrast, for anisohydric oak species (Quercus alba L. and Quercus rubra L.), we observed relatively smaller variations in sap flux during drought in both inner and outer xylem, and higher nighttime refilling when compared with isohydric species. This reliance on nocturnal refilling, which occurred coincident with a decoupling between leaf- and tree-level water-use dynamics, suggests that anisohydric species may benefit from a reliance on hydraulic capacitance to mitigate the risk of hydraulic failure associated with maintaining high transpiration rates during drought. In the case of both isohydric and anisohydric species, our work demonstrates that failure to account for shifts in the radial profile of sap flux during drought could introduce substantial bias in estimates of tree water use during both drought and non-drought

The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics, structure, and biodiversity in the United States.

PubMed

Clark, James S; Iverson, Louis; Woodall, Christopher W; Allen, Craig D; Bell, David M; Bragg, Don C; D'Amato, Anthony W; Davis, Frank W; Hersh, Michelle H; Ibanez, Ines; Jackson, Stephen T; Matthews, Stephen; Pederson, Neil; Peters, Matthew; Schwartz, Mark W; Waring, Kristen M; Zimmermann, Niklaus E

2016-07-01

We synthesize insights from current understanding of drought impacts at stand-to-biogeographic scales, including management options, and we identify challenges to be addressed with new research. Large stand-level shifts underway in western forests already are showing the importance of interactions involving drought, insects, and fire. Diebacks, changes in composition and structure, and shifting range limits are widely observed. In the eastern US, the effects of increasing drought are becoming better understood at the level of individual trees, but this knowledge cannot yet be confidently translated to predictions of changing structure and diversity of forest stands. While eastern forests have not experienced the types of changes seen in western forests in recent decades, they too are vulnerable to drought and could experience significant changes with increased severity, frequency, or duration in drought. Throughout the continental United States, the combination of projected large climate-induced shifts in suitable habitat from modeling studies and limited potential for the rapid migration of tree populations suggests that changing tree and forest biogeography could substantially lag habitat shifts already underway. Forest management practices can partially ameliorate drought impacts through reductions in stand density, selection of drought-tolerant species and genotypes, artificial regeneration, and the development of multistructured stands. However, silvicultural treatments also could exacerbate drought impacts unless implemented with careful attention to site and stand characteristics. Gaps in our understanding should motivate new research on the effects of interactions involving climate and other species at the stand scale and how interactions and multiple responses are represented in models. This assessment indicates that, without a stronger empirical basis for drought impacts at the stand scale, more complex models may provide limited guidance. © 2016 John

Droughts in Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barber, Nancy L.; Stamey, Timothy C.

2000-01-01

Droughts do not have the immediate effects of floods, but sustained droughts can cause economic stress throughout the State. The word 'drought' has various meanings, depending on a person's perspective. To a farmer, a drought is a period of moisture deficiency that affects the crops under cultivation - even two weeks without rainfall can stress many crops during certain periods of the growing cycle. To a meteorologist, a drought is a prolonged period when precipitation is less than normal. To a water manager, a drought is a deficiency in water supply that affects water availability and water quality. To a hydrologist, a drought is an extended period of decreased precipitation and streamflow. Droughts in Georgia have severely affected municipal and industrial water supplies, agriculture, stream water quality, recreation at major reservoirs, hydropower generation, navigation, and forest resources. In Georgia, droughts have been documented at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gaging stations since the 1890's. From 1910 to 1940, about 20 streamflow gaging stations were in operation. Since the early 1950's through the late 1980's, about 100 streamflow gaging stations were in operation. Currently (2000), the USGS streamflow gaging network consists of more than 135 continuous-recording gages. Ground-water levels are currently monitored at 165 wells equipped with continuous recorders.

Impact of the 11 March, 2011, Tohoku earthquake and tsunami on the chemical industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krausmann, E.; Cruz, A. M.

2012-04-01

An earthquake of magnitude 9.0 occurred off the Pacific coast of Tohoku, Japan, on March 11, 2011, at 14:46:23 Japan Standard Time (5:46:23 UTC). It generated a tsunami 130 km off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture in northeast Japan, which inundated over 400 km2 of land. The death toll has reached >15,800 according to the Japan National Policy Agency with over 3,700 still missing as of 26 October 2011. Significant damage to or complete collapse of houses also resulted. The earthquake generated strong ground motion; nevertheless most damage was caused by the tsunami, which is a tribute to the effectiveness of Japan's earthquake damage reduction measures in saving lives and property. Nonetheless, the direct losses amount to more than 200 billion US dollars (not counting the costs of the accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant). The earthquake and tsunami had a significant impact on all types of industry, and in particular on the petrochemical and chemical industry in the affected areas, resulting in hazardous-materials releases, fires and explosions and forcing businesses to interrupt production. These so-called Natech accidents pose an immediate or even long-term threat to the population and the environment, and can also interrupt the supply chain. Overall, the earthquake and tsunami took over 30% of Japan's oil production offline, and two refineries are still not or only partially in operation to repair the damage caused by the fires and explosions. The fire-fighting efforts could only be started 4 days after the disaster due to the absence of personnel that had been evacuated and because of the continuing tsunami alerts. In one of the affected refineries the fires could only be extinguished 10 days after the disasters. Many petrochemical and chemical companies reported problems either due to damage to facilities or because of power outages. In fact, in facilities that suffered no or only minor damage the resuming of operations was hampered by continuous

The ShakeOut scenario: A hypothetical Mw7.8 earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault

USGS Publications Warehouse

Porter, K.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.; Goltz, J.; Hudnut, K.; Mileti, D.; Perry, S.; Ponti, D.; Reichle, M.; Rose, A.Z.; Scawthorn, C.R.; Seligson, H.A.; Shoaf, K.I.; Treiman, J.; Wein, A.

2011-01-01

In 2008, an earthquake-planning scenario document was released by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and California Geological Survey that hypothesizes the occurrence and effects of a Mw7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was created by more than 300 scientists and engineers. Fault offsets reach 13 m and up to 8 m at lifeline crossings. Physics-based modeling was used to generate maps of shaking intensity, with peak ground velocities of 3 m/sec near the fault and exceeding 0.5 m/sec over 10,000 km2. A custom HAZUS??MH analysis and 18 special studies were performed to characterize the effects of the earthquake on the built environment. The scenario posits 1,800 deaths and 53,000 injuries requiring emergency room care. Approximately 1,600 fires are ignited, resulting in the destruction of 200 million square feet of the building stock, the equivalent of 133,000 single-family homes. Fire contributes $87 billion in property and business interruption loss, out of the total $191 billion in economic loss, with most of the rest coming from shakerelated building and content damage ($46 billion) and business interruption loss from water outages ($24 billion). Emergency response activities are depicted in detail, in an innovative grid showing activities versus time, a new format introduced in this study. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

THE GREAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHAKEOUT: Earthquake Science for 22 Million People

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, L.; Cox, D.; Perry, S.; Hudnut, K.; Benthien, M.; Bwarie, J.; Vinci, M.; Buchanan, M.; Long, K.; Sinha, S.; Collins, L.

2008-12-01

response technologies by Los Angeles Unified School District and a top to bottom examination of Los Angeles County Fire Department's earthquake response strategies.

Comparative proteome analysis of drought-sensitive and drought-tolerant rapeseed roots and their hybrid F1 line under drought stress.

PubMed

Mohammadi, Payam Pour; Moieni, Ahmad; Komatsu, Setsuko

2012-11-01

Rapeseed (Brassica napus L.), which is the third leading source of vegetable oil, is sensitive to drought stress during the early vegetative growth stage. To investigate the initial response of rapeseed to drought stress, changes in the protein expression profiles of drought-sensitive (RGS-003) and drought-tolerant lines (SLM-003), and their F1 hybrid, were analyzed using a proteomics approach. Seven-day-old rapeseed seedlings were treated with drought stress by restricting water for 7 days, and proteins were extracted from roots and separated by two-dimensional polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. In the sensitive rapeseed line, 35 protein spots were differentially expressed under drought stress, and proteins related to metabolism, energy, disease/defense, and transport were decreased. In the tolerant line, 32 protein spots were differentially expressed under drought stress, and proteins involved in metabolism, disease/defense, and transport were increased, while energy-related proteins were decreased. Six protein spots in F1 hybrid were common among expressed proteins in the drought-sensitive and -tolerant lines. Notably, tubulin beta-2 and heat shock protein 70 were decreased in the drought-sensitive line and hybrid F1 plants, while jasmonate-inducible protein and 20S proteasome subunit PAF1 were increased in the F1 hybrids and drought-tolerant line. These results indicate that (1) V-type H(+) ATPase, plasma-membrane associated cation-binding protein, HSP 90, and elongation factor EF-2 have a role in the drought tolerance of rapeseed; (2) The decreased levels of heat shock protein 70 and tubulin beta-2 in the drought-sensitive and hybrid F1 lines might explain the reduced growth of these lines in drought conditions.

Effects of controlled fire and livestock grazing on bird communities in East African savannas.

PubMed

Gregory, Nathan C; Sensenig, Ryan L; Wilcove, David S

2010-12-01

In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9-ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3-year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more-lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already-declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these

Can Tree Ring Analyses Predict Resilience of Black Spruce Forests to Fire in Interior Alaska?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, X. J.; Johnstone, J. F.; Mack, M. C.

2015-12-01

Climate change has increased the occurrence, severity, and impact of disturbances on forested ecosystems worldwide. As such there is a growing need to identify factors that contribute to an ecosystem's ability to recover from disturbance, commonly referred to as ecosystem resilience. In trees, drought-induced growth declines may signal decreased ecosystem resilience if mature trees are able to survive in stressful environmental conditions that do not permit successful post-disturbance recruitment and survival. Here we explore links between ecosystem resilience and the growth-climate relationships of pre-fire trees, specifically drought stress signals, across topographic moisture gradients within the boreal forest. We sampled 72 recently (2004) burned black spruce stands within interior Alaska and found the proportion of black spruce relative to deciduous trees decreased post-fire, ranging from almost no change to a 90% decrease. The largest shifts in post-fire species composition occurred in sites where trees showed negative growth responses to warm spring temperatures, and shallow post-fire organic layer depths due to dry site conditions or high fire severity. These sites were generally located at warmer and drier landscape positions, suggesting they are less resilient to disturbance than sites at the wetter end of the gradient. Tree growth-climate responses can provide an estimate of stand environmental stress to ongoing climate change and as such are a valuable tool for predicting landscape variations in forest ecosystem resilience and forecasting future forest composition.

Understorey fire frequency and the fate of burned forests in southern Amazonia.

PubMed

Morton, D C; Le Page, Y; DeFries, R; Collatz, G J; Hurtt, G C

2013-06-05

Recent drought events underscore the vulnerability of Amazon forests to understorey fires. The long-term impact of fires on biodiversity and forest carbon stocks depends on the frequency of fire damages and deforestation rates of burned forests. Here, we characterized the spatial and temporal dynamics of understorey fires (1999-2010) and deforestation (2001-2010) in southern Amazonia using new satellite-based estimates of annual fire activity (greater than 50 ha) and deforestation (greater than 10 ha). Understorey forest fires burned more than 85 500 km(2) between 1999 and 2010 (2.8% of all forests). Forests that burned more than once accounted for 16 per cent of all understorey fires. Repeated fire activity was concentrated in Mato Grosso and eastern Pará, whereas single fires were widespread across the arc of deforestation. Routine fire activity in Mato Grosso coincided with annual periods of low night-time relative humidity, suggesting a strong climate control on both single and repeated fires. Understorey fires occurred in regions with active deforestation, yet the interannual variability of fire and deforestation were uncorrelated, and only 2.6 per cent of forests that burned between 1999 and 2008 were deforested for agricultural use by 2010. Evidence from the past decade suggests that future projections of frontier landscapes in Amazonia should separately consider economic drivers to project future deforestation and climate to project fire risk.

Understorey fire frequency and the fate of burned forests in southern Amazonia

PubMed Central

Morton, D. C.; Le Page, Y.; DeFries, R.; Collatz, G. J.; Hurtt, G. C.

2013-01-01

Recent drought events underscore the vulnerability of Amazon forests to understorey fires. The long-term impact of fires on biodiversity and forest carbon stocks depends on the frequency of fire damages and deforestation rates of burned forests. Here, we characterized the spatial and temporal dynamics of understorey fires (1999–2010) and deforestation (2001–2010) in southern Amazonia using new satellite-based estimates of annual fire activity (greater than 50 ha) and deforestation (greater than 10 ha). Understorey forest fires burned more than 85 500 km2 between 1999 and 2010 (2.8% of all forests). Forests that burned more than once accounted for 16 per cent of all understorey fires. Repeated fire activity was concentrated in Mato Grosso and eastern Pará, whereas single fires were widespread across the arc of deforestation. Routine fire activity in Mato Grosso coincided with annual periods of low night-time relative humidity, suggesting a strong climate control on both single and repeated fires. Understorey fires occurred in regions with active deforestation, yet the interannual variability of fire and deforestation were uncorrelated, and only 2.6 per cent of forests that burned between 1999 and 2008 were deforested for agricultural use by 2010. Evidence from the past decade suggests that future projections of frontier landscapes in Amazonia should separately consider economic drivers to project future deforestation and climate to project fire risk. PMID:23610169

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

2017-04-24

The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks. The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of

Who Died, Where? Quantification of Drought-Induced Tree Mortality in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwantes, A.; Swenson, J. J.; Johnson, D. M.; Domec, J. C.; Jackson, R. B.

2014-12-01

During 2011, Texas experienced a severe drought that killed millions of trees across the state. Drought-induced tree mortality can have significant ecological impacts and is expected to increase with climate change. We identify methods to quantify tree mortality in central Texas by using remotely sensed images before and after the drought at multiple spatial resolutions. Fine-scale tree mortality maps were created by classifying 1-m orthophotos from the National Agriculture Imagery Program. These classifications showed a high correlation with field estimates of percent canopy loss (RMSE = 2%; R2=0.9), and were thus used to calibrate coarser scale 30-m Landsat imagery. Random Forest, a machine learning method, was applied to obtain sub-pixel estimates of tree mortality. Traditional per-pixel classification techniques can map mortality of whole stands of trees (e.g. fire). However, these methods are often inadequate in detecting subtle changes in land cover, such as those associated with drought-induced tree mortality, which is often a widespread but scattered disturbance. Our method is unique, because it is capable of mapping death of individual canopies within a pixel. These 30-m tree mortality maps were then used to identify ecological systems most impacted by the drought and edaphic factors that control spatial distributions of tree mortality across central Texas. Ground observations coupled with our remote sensing analyses revealed that the majority of the mortality was Juniperus ashei. From a physiological standpoint this is surprising, because J. ashei is a drought-resistant tree. However, over the last century, this species has recently encroached into many areas previously dominated by grassland. Also, J. ashei tends to occupy landscape positions with lower available water storage, which could explain its high mortality rate. Predominantly tree mortality occurred in dry landscape positions (e.g. areas dominated by shallow soils, a low compound topographic

Report on the 2010 Chilean earthquake and tsunami response

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2011-01-01

delegation, it was clear that a multidisciplinary approach was required to properly analyze the emergency response, technical, and social components of this disaster. A diverse and knowledgeable delegation was necessary to analyze the Chilean response in a way that would be beneficial to preparedness in California, as well as improve mitigation efforts around the United States. By most standards, the Maule earthquake was a catastrophe for Chile. The economic losses totaled $30 billion USD or 17% of the GDP of the country. Twelve million people, or ¾ of the population of the country, were in areas that felt strong shaking. Yet only 521 fatalities have been confirmed, with 56 people still missing and presumed dead in the tsunami. The Science and Technology Team evaluated the impacts of the earthquake on built environment with implications for the United States. The fires following the earthquake were minimal in part because of the shutdown of the national electrical grid early in the shaking. Only five engineer-designed buildings were destroyed during the earthquake; however, over 350,000 housing units were destroyed. Chile has a law that holds building owners liable for the first 10 years of a building’s existence for any losses resulting from inadequate application of the building code during construction. This law was cited by many our team met with as a prime reason for the strong performance of the built environment. Overall, this earthquake demonstrated that strict building codes and standards could greatly reduce losses in even the largest earthquakes. In the immediate response to the earthquake and tsunami, first responders, emergency personnel, and search and rescue teams handled many challenges. Loss of communications was significant; many lives were lost and effective coordination to support life-sustaining efforts was gravely impacted due to a lack of inter- and intra-agency coordination. The Health and Medical Services Team sought to understand the medical

Linking meteorological drivers of spring-summer drought regimes to agricultural drought risk in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, L.; Wright, J. S.; Yu, C.; Huang, W. Y.

2017-12-01

As a drought prone country, China has experienced frequent severe droughts in recent decades. Drought frequency and severity are projected to increase in China under climate change. An understanding of the physical processes that contribute to extreme droughts is essential for seasonal forecasting, but the dominant physical mechanisms responsible for droughts in most parts of China are still unclear. Moreover, despite numerous studies on droughts in China, there are few clear connections between the meteorological and climatological drivers of extreme droughts and the associated agricultural consequences. This knowledge gap limits the capacity for decision-making support in drought management. The objectives of this study are (1) to identify robust spring-summer drought regimes over China, (2) to investigate the physical mechanisms associated with each regime, and (3) to better clarify connections between meteorological drought regimes and agricultural drought risk. First, we identify six drought regimes over China by applying an area-weighted k-means clustering technique to spatial patterns of spring-summer Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) obtained from the ten-member ERA-20CM ensemble for 1900-2010. Second, we project these drought regimes onto agricultural drought risk maps for the three major cereal crops (rice, maize, and wheat) in China. Taking into account historical harvest areas for these crops, we then evaluate the potential impact of each drought regime on agricultural production. Third, the physical mechanisms and meteorological context behind each drought regimes are investigated based on monthly outputs from ERA20CM. We analyze the preceding and concurrent atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with each regime, and propose mechanistic explanations for drought development. This work provides a new perspective on diagnosing the physical mechanisms behind seasonal droughts, and lays a foundation for improving seasonal drought prediction and

Pulse-drought atop press-drought: unexpected plant responses and implications for dryland ecosystems.

PubMed

Hoover, David L; Duniway, Michael C; Belnap, Jayne

2015-12-01

In drylands, climate change is predicted to cause chronic reductions in water availability (press-droughts) through reduced precipitation and increased temperatures as well as increase the frequency and intensity of short-term extreme droughts (pulse-droughts). These changes in precipitation patterns may have profound ecosystem effects, depending on the sensitivities of the dominant plant functional types (PFTs). Here we present the responses of four Colorado Plateau PFTs to an experimentally imposed, 4-year, press-drought during which a natural pulse-drought occurred. Our objectives were to (1) identify the drought sensitivities of the PFTs, (2) assess the additive effects of the press- and pulse-drought, and (3) examine the interactive effects of soils and drought. Our results revealed that the C3 grasses were the most sensitive PFT to drought, the C3 shrubs were the most resistant, and the C4 grasses and shrubs had intermediate drought sensitivities. Although we expected the C3 grasses would have the greatest response to drought, the higher resistance of C3 shrubs relative to the C4 shrubs was contrary to our predictions based on the higher water use efficiency of C4 photosynthesis. Also, the additive effects of press- and pulse-droughts caused high morality in C3 grasses, which has large ecological and economic ramifications for this region. Furthermore, despite predictions based on the inverse texture hypothesis, we observed no interactive effects of soils with the drought treatment on cover or mortality. These results suggest that plant responses to droughts in drylands may differ from expectations and have large ecological effects if press- and pulse-droughts push species beyond physiological and mortality thresholds.

GRACE-Assimilated Drought Indicators for the U.S. Drought Monitor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rui, Hualan; Vollmer, Bruce; Teng, Bill; Loeser, Carlee; Beaudoing, Hiroko; Rodell, Matt

2018-01-01

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission detects changes in Earth's gravity field by precisely monitoring the changes in distance between two satellites orbiting the Earth in tandem. Scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center generate GRACE-assimilated groundwater and soil moisture drought indicators each week, for drought monitor-related studies and applications. The GRACE-assimilated Drought Indicator Version 2.0 data product (GRACE-DA-DM V2.0) is archived at, and distributed by, the NASA GES DISC (Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center). More information about the data and data access is available on the data product landing page at https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets /GRACEDADM_CLSM0125US_7D_2.0/summary. The GRACE-DA-DM V2.0 data product contains three drought indicators: Groundwater Percentile, Root Zone Soil Moisture Percentile, and Surface Soil Moisture Percentile. The drought indicators are of wet or dry conditions, expressed as a percentile, indicating the probability of occurrence within the period of record from 1948 to 2012. These GRACE-assimilated drought indicators, with improved spatial and temporal resolutions, should provide a more comprehensive and objective identification of drought conditions. This presentation describes the basic characteristics of the data and data services at NASA GES DISC and collaborative organizations, and uses a few examples to demonstrate the simple ways to explore the GRACE-assimilated drought indicator data.

Tree mortality from fires, bark beetles, and timber harvest during a hot and dry decade in the western United States (2003-2012)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berner, Logan T.; Law, Beverly E.; Meddens, Arjan J. H.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.

2017-06-01

High temperatures and severe drought contributed to extensive tree mortality from fires and bark beetles during the 2000s in parts of the western continental United States. Several states in this region have greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets and would benefit from information on the amount of carbon stored in tree biomass killed by disturbance. We quantified mean annual tree mortality from fires, bark beetles, and timber harvest from 2003-2012 for each state in this region. We estimated tree mortality from fires and beetles using tree aboveground carbon (AGC) stock and disturbance data sets derived largely from remote sensing. We quantified tree mortality from harvest using data from US Forest Service reports. In both cases, we used Monte Carlo analyses to track uncertainty associated with parameter error and temporal variability. Regional tree mortality from harvest, beetles, and fires (MORTH+B+F) together averaged 45.8 ± 16.0 Tg AGC yr-1 (±95% confidence interval), indicating a mortality rate of 1.10 ± 0.38% yr-1. Harvest accounted for the largest percentage of MORTH+B+F (˜50%), followed by beetles (˜32%), and fires (˜18%). Tree mortality from harvest was concentrated in Washington and Oregon, where harvest accounted for ˜80% of MORTH+B+F in each state. Tree mortality from beetles occurred widely at low levels across the region, yet beetles had pronounced impacts in Colorado and Montana, where they accounted for ˜80% of MORTH+B+F. Tree mortality from fires was highest in California, though fires accounted for the largest percentage of MORTH+B+F in Arizona and New Mexico (˜50%). Drought and human activities shaped regional variation in tree mortality, highlighting opportunities and challenges to managing GHG emissions from forests. Rising temperatures and greater risk of drought will likely increase tree mortality from fires and bark beetles during coming decades in this region. Thus, sustained monitoring and mapping of tree mortality is necessary to

Analysing the response of European ecosystems to droughts and heat waves within ISI-MIP2 simulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dury, M.; Henrot, A. J.; Francois, L. M.; Munhoven, G.; Jacquemin, I.; Friend, A. D.; Rademacher, T. T.; Hacket Pain, A. J.; Hickler, T.

2015-12-01

With unprecedented speed and extent, the future climate change can be expected to severely impact terrestrial ecosystems due to more frequent extreme events, such as droughts or heat waves. What will be the impacts of these extreme events on ecosystem functioning and structure? How far will net primary production be reduced by such events? What will be the impact on plant mortality? Could such events trigger changes in the abundance of plant species, thus leading to biome shifts? In this contribution, we propose to use ISI-MIP2 model historical simulations from the biome sector to analyse the response of ecosystems to droughts or heat waves, trying to understand the differences between several vegetation models (e.g. CARAIB, HYBRID, LPJ). The analysis will focus on Europe. It will compare and assess the model responses for a series of well-marked drought or heat wave events in the simulated historical period, such as those that occurred in 1976, 2003 or 2010. This analysis will be performed in terms of several important environmental variables, like soil water and hydric stress, runoff, PFT abundance, net primary productivity and biomass, fire frequency, turnover of soil organic matter, etc. Whenever possible, the response of the model will be compared to available data for the most recent well-marked events. Examples of data to be used are eddy covariance, satellite data (including leaf area and fire occurrence) or tree rings.

Improved tolerance to post-anthesis drought stress by pre-drought priming at vegetative stages in drought-tolerant and -sensitive wheat cultivars.

PubMed

Abid, Muhammad; Tian, Zhongwei; Ata-Ul-Karim, Syed Tahir; Liu, Yang; Cui, Yakun; Zahoor, Rizwan; Jiang, Dong; Dai, Tingbo

2016-09-01

Wheat crop endures a considerable penalty of yield reduction to escape the drought events during post-anthesis period. Drought priming under a pre-drought stress can enhance the crop potential to tolerate the subsequent drought stress by triggering a faster and stronger defense mechanism. Towards these understandings, a set of controlled moderate drought stress at 55-60% field capacity (FC) was developed to prime the plants of two wheat cultivars namely Luhan-7 (drought tolerant) and Yangmai-16 (drought sensitive) during tillering (Feekes 2 stage) and jointing (Feekes 6 stage), respectively. The comparative response of primed and non-primed plants, cultivars and priming stages was evaluated by applying a subsequent severe drought stress at 7 days after anthesis. The results showed that primed plants of both cultivars showed higher potential to tolerate the post-anthesis drought stress through improved leaf water potential, more chlorophyll, and ribulose-1, 5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase contents, enhanced photosynthesis, better photoprotection and efficient enzymatic antioxidant system leading to less yield reductions. The primed plants of Luhan-7 showed higher capability to adapt the drought stress events than Yangmai-16. The positive effects of drought priming to sustain higher grain yield were pronounced in plants primed at tillering than those primed at jointing. In consequence, upregulated functioning of photosynthetic apparatus and efficient enzymatic antioxidant activities in primed plants indicated their superior potential to alleviate a subsequently occurring drought stress, which contributed to lower yield reductions than non-primed plants. However, genotypic and priming stages differences in response to drought stress also contributed to affect the capability of primed plants to tolerate the post-anthesis drought stress conditions in wheat. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Fire-induced Carbon Emissions and Regrowth Uptake in Western U.S. Forests: Documenting Variation Across Forest Types, Fire Severity, and Climate Regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghimire, Bardan; Williams, Christopher A.; Collatz, George James; Vanderhoof, Melanie

2012-01-01

The forest area in the western United States that burns annually is increasing with warmer temperatures, more frequent droughts, and higher fuel densities. Studies that examine fire effects for regional carbon balances have tended to either focus on individual fires as examples or adopt generalizations without considering how forest type, fire severity, and regional climate influence carbon legacies. This study provides a more detailed characterization of fire effects and quantifies the full carbon impacts in relation to direct emissions, slow release of fire-killed biomass, and net carbon uptake from forest regrowth. We find important variations in fire-induced mortality and combustion across carbon pools (leaf, live wood, dead wood, litter, and duff) and across low- to high-severity classes. This corresponds to fire-induced direct emissions from 1984 to 2008 averaging 4 TgC/yr and biomass killed averaging 10.5 TgC/yr, with average burn area of 2723 sq km/yr across the western United States. These direct emission and biomass killed rates were 1.4 and 3.7 times higher, respectively, for high-severity fires than those for low-severity fires. The results show that forest regrowth varies greatly by forest type and with severity and that these factors impose a sustained carbon uptake legacy. The western U.S. fires between 1984 and 2008 imposed a net source of 12.3 TgC/yr in 2008, accounting for both direct fire emissions (9.5 TgC/yr) and heterotrophic decomposition of fire-killed biomass (6.1 TgC yr1) as well as contemporary regrowth sinks (3.3 TgC/yr). A sizeable trend exists toward increasing emissions as a larger area burns annually.

Are post-fire silvicultural treatments a useful tool to fight the climate change threat in terms of plant diversity?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hedo de Santiago, Javier; Esteban Lucasr Borja, Manuel; de las Heras, Jorge

2016-04-01

Adaptative forest management demands a huge scientific knowledge about post-fire vegetation dynamics, taking into account the current context of global change. We hypothesized that management practices should be carry out taking into account the climate change effect, to obtain better results in the biodiversity maintenance across time. All of this with respect to diversity and species composition of the post-fire naturally regenerated Aleppo pine forests understory. The study was carried out in two post-fire naturally regenerated Aleppo pine forests in the Southeastern of the Iberian Peninsula, under contrasting climatic conditions: Yeste (Albacete) shows a dry climate and Calasparra (Murcia) shows a semiarid climate. Thinning as post-fire silvicultural treatment was carried out five years after the wildfire event, in the year 1999. An experiment of artificial drought was designed to evacuate 15% of the natural rainfall in both sites, Yeste and Calasparra, to simulate climate change. Taking into account all the variables (site, silvicultural treatment and artificial drought), alpha diversity indices including species richness, Shannon and Simpson diversity indices, and plant cover, were analyzed as a measure of vegetation abundance. The results showed that plant species were affected by thinning, whereas induced drought affected total cover and species, with lower values at Yeste. Significant site variation was also observed in soil properties, species richness and total plant cover, conversely to the plant species diversity indices. We conclude that the plant community shows different responses to a simulated environment of climate change depending on the experimental site.

Determining critical groundwater level to prevent degraded peatland from severe peat fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putra, E. I.; Cochrane, M. A.; Vetrita, Y.; Graham, L.; Saharjo, B. H.

2018-05-01

Peat fires have been a severe recurrent problem for Indonesia, but droughts due to prolonged dry season aggravate burning conditions. To get a better understanding of this issue, we studied fire conditions in a portion of the ex-Mega Rice Project (MRP) area, Central Kalimantan. To examine fire season and hydrology factors affecting peat fires we analyzed daily TRMM data, Nino 3.4 SST Anomalies, and changing groundwater levels (GWL) from 300 dipwells. Our results quantify time-lags between the period of lowest precipitation and the lowest GWL; providing some ability to predict fire risk in advance of the lowest GWL. The rise of Nino 3.4 SST anomalies is significant risk factors for peat fire as they signify dry months which may yield large fire occurrences. GWL in 2011 was lower than in 2012, but fires were more frequent in 2012, indicating that low precipitation amounts in the wet season of 2011/2012 left the peat in a dry condition early in 2012. Most of the fires occurred in areas with GWL less than -30 cm, powerfully illustrating the importance of maintaining GWL at more than -10 cm, to prevent degraded peatlands from experiencing surface and deep peat fires.

Pulse-drought atop press-drought: unexpected plant responses and implications for dryland ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoover, David L.; Duniway, Michael C.; Belnap, Jayne

2015-01-01

In drylands, climate change is predicted to cause chronic reductions in water availability (press-droughts) through reduced precipitation and increased temperatures as well as increase the frequency and intensity of short-term extreme droughts (pulse-droughts). These changes in precipitation patterns may have profound ecosystem effects, depending on the sensitivities of the dominant plant functional types (PFTs). Here we present the responses of four Colorado Plateau PFTs to an experimentally imposed, 4-year, press-drought during which a natural pulse-drought occurred. Our objectives were to (1) identify the drought sensitivities of the PFTs, (2) assess the additive effects of the press- and pulse-drought, and (3) examine the interactive effects of soils and drought. Our results revealed that the C3 grasses were the most sensitive PFT to drought, the C3shrubs were the most resistant, and the C4 grasses and shrubs had intermediate drought sensitivities. Although we expected the C3 grasses would have the greatest response to drought, the higher resistance of C3 shrubs relative to the C4 shrubs was contrary to our predictions based on the higher water use efficiency of C4 photosynthesis. Also, the additive effects of press- and pulse-droughts caused high morality in C3 grasses, which has large ecological and economic ramifications for this region. Furthermore, despite predictions based on the inverse texture hypothesis, we observed no interactive effects of soils with the drought treatment on cover or mortality. These results suggest that plant responses to droughts in drylands may differ from expectations and have large ecological effects if press- and pulse-droughts push species beyond physiological and mortality thresholds.

Earthquakes

MedlinePlus

... Search Term(s): Main Content Home Be Informed Earthquakes Earthquakes An earthquake is the sudden, rapid shaking of the earth, ... by the breaking and shifting of underground rock. Earthquakes can cause buildings to collapse and cause heavy ...

CreativeDrought: An interdisciplinary approach to building resilience to drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rangecroft, Sally; Van Loon, Anne; Rohse, Melanie; Day, Rosie; Birkinshaw, Stephen; Makaya, Eugine

2017-04-01

Drought events cause severe water and food insecurities in many developing countries where resilience to natural hazards and change is low due to a number of reasons (including poverty, social and political inequality, and limited access to information). Furthermore, with climate change and increasing pressures from population and societal change, populations are expected to experience future droughts outside of their historic range. Integrated water resources management is an established tool combining natural science, engineering and management to help address drought and associated impacts. However, it often lacks a strong social and cultural aspect, leading to poor implementation on the ground. For a more holistic approach to building resilience to future drought, a stronger interdisciplinary approach is required which can incorporate the local cultural context and perspectives into drought and water management, and communicate information effectively to communities. In this pilot project 'CreativeDrought', we use a novel interdisciplinary approach aimed at building resilience to future drought in rural Africa by combining hydrological modelling with rich local information and engaging communicative approaches from social sciences. The work is conducted through a series of steps in which we i) engage with local rural communities to collect narratives on drought experiences; ii) generate hydrological modelling scenarios based on IPCC projections, existing data and the collected narratives; iii) feed these back to the local community to gather their responses to these scenarios; iv) iteratively adapt them to obtain hypothetical future drought scenarios; v) engage the community with the scenarios to formulate new future drought narratives; and vi) use this new data to enhance local water resource management. Here we present some of the indigenous knowledge gathered through narratives and the hydrological modelling scenarios for a rural community in Southern Africa

Effects of Natural and Experimental Drought on Growth and Water Use Efficiency in Amazon trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vadeboncoeur, M. A.; Brum, M., Jr.; Oliveira, R. S.; Moutinho, V. H. P.; Flores, C. F.; Llerena, C. A.; Palace, M. W.; Asbjornsen, H.

2016-12-01

Severe regional droughts in the Amazon basin, mostly associated with El Nino events, have attracted considerable attention over the past decade, especially with regard to their effects on tree mortality, vulnerability to fire, and changes in the terrestrial budgets of carbon, water, and energy. Understanding the complex responses of forest ecosystems to such droughts is key to predicting how these globally critical forest ecosystems will respond to a changing climate with higher temperatures and greater precipitation variability. Though tree rings are not formed by all tropical tree species, they offer a unique retrospective approach for investigating patterns of climatic responses in both carbon cycling (primary production inferred from diameter growth) and water cycling (water use efficiency calculated from stable C isotope ratios). We sampled increment cores from 40 tree species at the Tapajos National Forest in Brazil, as well as the Cocha Cashu Biological Station in Peru, for an isotopic dendrochronological investigation into the effects of past droughts on the growth and water-use efficiency of canopy and mid-story tree species. We found that many but not all trees responded to drought years with periods of reduced growth lasting 2-3 years. Forthcoming data on carbon isotope ratios will allow us to compare the sensitivity of species and sites in terms of water use under drought conditions.

Holocene vegetation and fire history of the mountains of northern Sicily (Italy)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tinner, Willy; Vescovi, Elisa; Van Leeuwen, Jacqueline; Colombaroli, Daniele; Henne, Paul; Kaltenrieder, Petra; Morales-Molino, Cesar; Beffa, Giorgia; Gnaegi, Bettina; Van der Knaap, Pim W O; La Mantia, Tommaso; Pasta, Salvatore

2016-01-01

Knowledge about vegetation and fire history of the mountains of Northern Sicily is scanty. We analysed five sites to fill this gap and used terrestrial plant macrofossils to establish robust radiocarbon chronologies. Palynological records from Gorgo Tondo, Gorgo Lungo, Marcato Cixé, Urgo Pietra Giordano and Gorgo Pollicino show that under natural or near natural conditions, deciduous forests (Quercus pubescens, Q. cerris, Fraxinus ornus, Ulmus), that included a substantial portion of evergreen broadleaved species (Q. suber, Q. ilex, Hedera helix), prevailed in the upper meso-mediterranean belt. Mesophilous deciduous and evergreen broadleaved trees (Fagus sylvatica, Ilex aquifolium) dominated in the natural or quasi-natural forests of the oro-mediterranean belt. Forests were repeatedly opened for agricultural purposes. Fire activity was closely associated with farming, providing evidence that burning was a primary land use tool since Neolithic times. Land use and fire activity intensified during the Early Neolithic at 5000 bc, at the onset of the Bronze Age at 2500 bc and at the onset of the Iron Age at 800 bc. Our data and previous studies suggest that the large majority of open land communities in Sicily, from the coastal lowlands to the mountain areas below the thorny-cushion Astragalus belt (ca. 1,800 m a.s.l.), would rapidly develop into forests if land use ceased. Mesophilous Fagus-Ilex forests developed under warm mid Holocene conditions and were resilient to the combined impacts of humans and climate. The past ecology suggests a resilience of these summer-drought adapted communities to climate warming of about 2 °C. Hence, they may be particularly suited to provide heat and drought-adaptedFagus sylvatica ecotypes for maintaining drought-sensitive Central European beech forests under global warming conditions.

Rapid increase in log populations in drought-stressed mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forests in northern Arizona

Treesearch

Joseph L. Ganey; Scott C. Vojta

2012-01-01

Down logs provide important ecosystem services in forests and affect surface fuel loads and fire behavior. Amounts and kinds of logs are influenced by factors such as forest type, disturbance regime, forest man-agement, and climate. To quantify potential short-term changes in log populations during a recent global- climate-change type drought, we sampled logs in mixed-...

El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marlier, Miriam E.; Defries, Ruth S.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Kinney, Patrick L.; Randerson, James T.; Shindell, Drew T.; Chen, Yang; Faluvegi, Greg

2013-02-01

Emissions from landscape fires affect both climate and air quality. Here, we combine satellite-derived fire estimates and atmospheric modelling to quantify health effects from fire emissions in southeast Asia from 1997 to 2006. This region has large interannual variability in fire activity owing to coupling between El Niño-induced droughts and anthropogenic land-use change. We show that during strong El Niño years, fires contribute up to 200μgm-3 and 50ppb in annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone surface concentrations near fire sources, respectively. This corresponds to a fire contribution of 200 additional days per year that exceed the World Health Organization 50μgm-3 24-hr PM2.5 interim target and an estimated 10,800 (6,800-14,300)-person (~ 2%) annual increase in regional adult cardiovascular mortality. Our results indicate that reducing regional deforestation and degradation fires would improve public health along with widely established benefits from reducing carbon emissions, preserving biodiversity and maintaining ecosystem services.

Combining Multiple Rupture Models in Real-Time for Earthquake Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minson, S. E.; Wu, S.; Beck, J. L.; Heaton, T. H.

2015-12-01

The ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system for the west coast of the United States is designed to combine information from multiple independent earthquake analysis algorithms in order to provide the public with robust predictions of shaking intensity at each user's location before they are affected by strong shaking. The current contributing analyses come from algorithms that determine the origin time, epicenter, and magnitude of an earthquake (On-site, ElarmS, and Virtual Seismologist). A second generation of algorithms will provide seismic line source information (FinDer), as well as geodetically-constrained slip models (BEFORES, GPSlip, G-larmS, G-FAST). These new algorithms will provide more information about the spatial extent of the earthquake rupture and thus improve the quality of the resulting shaking forecasts.Each of the contributing algorithms exploits different features of the observed seismic and geodetic data, and thus each algorithm may perform differently for different data availability and earthquake source characteristics. Thus the ShakeAlert system requires a central mediator, called the Central Decision Module (CDM). The CDM acts to combine disparate earthquake source information into one unified shaking forecast. Here we will present a new design for the CDM that uses a Bayesian framework to combine earthquake reports from multiple analysis algorithms and compares them to observed shaking information in order to both assess the relative plausibility of each earthquake report and to create an improved unified shaking forecast complete with appropriate uncertainties. We will describe how these probabilistic shaking forecasts can be used to provide each user with a personalized decision-making tool that can help decide whether or not to take a protective action (such as opening fire house doors or stopping trains) based on that user's distance to the earthquake, vulnerability to shaking, false alarm tolerance, and time required to act.

Tropical North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere interactions synchronize forest carbon losses from hurricanes and Amazon fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yang; Randerson, James T.; Morton, Douglas C.

2015-08-01

We describe a climate mode synchronizing forest carbon losses from North and South America by analyzing time series of tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), landfall hurricanes and tropical storms, and Amazon fires during 1995-2013. Years with anomalously high tropical North Atlantic SSTs during March-June were often followed by a more active hurricane season and a larger number of satellite-detected fires in the southern Amazon during June-November. The relationship between North Atlantic tropical cyclones and southern Amazon fires (r = 0.61, p < 0.003) was stronger than links between SSTs and either cyclones or fires alone, suggesting that fires and tropical cyclones were directly coupled to the same underlying atmospheric dynamics governing tropical moisture redistribution. These relationships help explain why seasonal outlook forecasts for hurricanes and Amazon fires both failed in 2013 and may enable the design of improved early warning systems for drought and fire in Amazon forests.

Massive mortality of aspen following severe drought along the southern edge of the Canadian boreal forest

PubMed Central

Michaelian, Michael; Hogg, Edward H; Hall, Ronald J; Arsenault, Eric

2011-01-01

Drought-induced, regional-scale dieback of forests has emerged as a global concern that is expected to escalate under model projections of climate change. Since 2000, drought of unusual severity, extent, and duration has affected large areas of western North America, leading to regional-scale dieback of forests in the southwestern US. We report on drought impacts on forests in a region farther north, encompassing the transition between boreal forest and prairie in western Canada. A central question is the significance of drought as an agent of large-scale tree mortality and its potential future impact on carbon cycling in this cold region. We used a combination of plot-based, meteorological, and remote sensing measures to map and quantify aboveground, dead biomass of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) across an 11.5 Mha survey area where drought was exceptionally severe during 2001–2002. Within this area, a satellite-based land cover map showed that aspen-dominated broadleaf forests occupied 2.3 Mha. Aerial surveys revealed extensive patches of severe mortality (>55%) resembling the impacts of fire. Dead aboveground biomass was estimated at 45 Mt, representing 20% of the total aboveground biomass, based on a spatial interpolation of plot-based measurements. Spatial variation in percentage dead biomass showed a moderately strong correlation with drought severity. In the prairie-like, southern half of the study area where the drought was most severe, 35% of aspen biomass was dead, compared with an estimated 7% dead biomass in the absence of drought. Drought led to an estimated 29 Mt increase in dead biomass across the survey area, corresponding to 14 Mt of potential future carbon emissions following decomposition. Many recent, comparable episodes of drought-induced forest dieback have been reported from around the world, which points to an emerging need for multiscale monitoring approaches to quantify drought effects on woody biomass and carbon cycling

Introducing the Global Fire WEather Database (GFWED)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Field, R. D.

2015-12-01

The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System is the mostly widely used fire danger rating system in the world. We have developed a global database of daily FWI System calculations beginning in 1980 called the Global Fire WEather Database (GFWED) gridded to a spatial resolution of 0.5° latitude by 2/3° longitude. Input weather data were obtained from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research (MERRA), and two different estimates of daily precipitation from rain gauges over land. FWI System Drought Code calculations from the gridded datasets were compared to calculations from individual weather station data for a representative set of 48 stations in North, Central and South America, Europe, Russia, Southeast Asia and Australia. Agreement between gridded calculations and the station-based calculations tended to be most different at low latitudes for strictly MERRA-based calculations. Strong biases could be seen in either direction: MERRA DC over the Mato Grosso in Brazil reached unrealistically high values exceeding DC=1500 during the dry season but was too low over Southeast Asia during the dry season. These biases are consistent with those previously-identified in MERRA's precipitation and reinforce the need to consider alternative sources of precipitation data. GFWED is being used by researchers around the world for analyzing historical relationships between fire weather and fire activity at large scales, in identifying large-scale atmosphere-ocean controls on fire weather, and calibration of FWI-based fire prediction models. These applications will be discussed. More information on GFWED can be found at http://data.giss.nasa.gov/impacts/gfwed/

The current California drought through EDDI's eyes: early warning and monitoring of agricultural and hydrologic drought with the new Evaporative Demand Drought Index.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobbins, M.; McEvoy, D.; Huntington, J. L.; Wood, A. W.; Morton, C.; Verdin, J. P.

2015-12-01

We have developed a physically based, multi-scalar drought index—the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI)—to improve treatment of evaporative dynamics in drought monitoring. Existing popular drought indices—such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index that informs much of the US Drought Monitor (USDM)—have primarily relyied on precipitation and temperature (T) to represent hydroclimatic anomalies, leaving evaporative demand (E0) most often derived from poorly performing T-based parameterizations then used to derive actual evapotranspiration (ET) from LSMs. Instead, EDDI leverages the inter-relations of E0 and ET, measuring E0's physical response to surface drying anomalies due to two distinct land surface/atmosphere interactions: (i) in sustained drought, limited moisture availability forces E0 and ET into a complementary relation, whereby ET declines as E0 increases; and (ii) in "flash" droughts, E0 increases due to increasing advection or radiation. E0's rise in response to both drought types suggests EDDI's robustness as a monitor and leading indicator of drought. To drive EDDI, we use for E0 daily reference ET from the ASCE Standardized Reference ET equation forced by North American Land Data Assimilation System drivers. EDDI is derived by aggregating E0 anomalies from its long-term mean across a period of interest and normalizing them to a Z-score. Positive EDDI indicates drier than normal conditions (and so drought). We use the current historic California drought as a test-case in which to examine EDDI's performance in monitoring agricultural and hydrologic drought. We observe drought development and decompose the behavior of drought's evaporative drivers during in-drought intensification periods and wetting events. EDDI's performance as a drought leading indicator with respect to the USDM is tested in important agricultural regions. Comparing streamflow from several USGS gauges in the Sierra Nevada to EDDI, we find that EDDI tracks most major

High resolution multi-scalar drought indices for Iberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, Ana; Gouveia, Célia; Trigo, Ricardo; Jerez, Sonia

2014-05-01

The Iberian Peninsula has been recurrently affected by drought episodes and by adverse associated effects (Gouveia et al., 2009), ranging from severe water shortages to losses of hydroelectricity production, increasing risk of forest fires, forest decline and triggering processes of land degradation and desertification. Moreover, Iberia corresponds to one of the most sensitive areas to current and future climate change and is nowadays considered a hot spot of climate change with high probability for the increase of extreme events (Giorgi and Lionello, 2008). The spatial and temporal behavior of climatic droughts at different time scales was analyzed using spatially distributed time series of multi-scalar drought indicators, such as the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010). This new climatic drought index is based on the simultaneous use of precipitation and temperature fields with the advantage of combining a multi-scalar character with the capacity to include the effects of temperature variability on drought assessment. Moreover, reanalysis data and the higher resolution hindcasted databases obtained from them are valuable surrogates of the sparse observations and widely used for in-depth characterizations of the present-day climate. Accordingly, this work aims to enhance the knowledge on high resolution drought patterns in Iberian Peninsula, taking advantage of high-resolution (10km) regional MM5 simulations of the recent past (1959-2007) over Iberia. It should be stressed that these high resolution meteorological fields (e.g. temperature, precipitation) have been validated for various purposes (Jerez et al., 2013). A detailed characterization of droughts since the 1960s using the 10 km resolution hidncasted simulation was performed with the aim to explore the conditions favoring drought onset, duration and ending, as well as the subsequent short, medium and long-term impacts affecting the environment and the

A stand-replacing fire history in upper montane forests of the southern Rocky Mountains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Margolis, E.Q.; Swetnam, T.W.; Allen, Craig D.

2007-01-01

Dendroecological techniques were applied to reconstruct stand-replacing fire history in upper montane forests in northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. Fourteen stand-replacing fires were dated to 8 unique fire years (1842–1901) using four lines of evidence at each of 12 sites within the upper Rio Grande Basin. The four lines of evidence were (i) quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) inner-ring dates, (ii) fire-killed conifer bark-ring dates, (iii) tree-ring width changes or other morphological indicators of injury, and (iv) fire scars. The annual precision of dating allowed the identification of synchronous stand-replacing fire years among the sites, and co-occurrence with regional surface fire events previously reconstructed from a network of fire scar collections in lower elevation pine forests across the southwestern United States. Nearly all of the synchronous stand-replacing and surface fire years coincided with severe droughts, because climate variability created regional conditions where stand-replacing fires and surface fires burned across ecosystems. Reconstructed stand-replacing fires that predate substantial Anglo-American settlement in this region provide direct evidence that stand-replacing fires were a feature of high-elevation forests before extensive and intensive land-use practices (e.g., logging, railroad, and mining) began in the late 19th century.

IMPLEMENTATION OF INFORMATION SHARING DEMONSTRATION AMONG ORGANIZATIONS IN CHARGE OF DISASTER MANAGEMENT IN TOKYO METROPOLITAN NEAR FIELD EARTHQUAKE DISASTER

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hada, Yasunori; Kondo, Shinya; Meguro, Kimiro; Ohara, Miho; Zama, Shinsaku; Endo, Makoto; Kobayashi, Keiji; Suzuki, Takeyasu; Noda, Itsuki; Shimora, Hiroki; Takeuchi, Ikuo; Kobayashi, Satoshi; Arakawa, Junpei; Yoshimoto, Kenichi

For realizing cross-sectional inform ation sharing in the Tokyo metropolitan area, we develop disaster management applications to reduce negative impact due to vital issue in phase of initial response, and cooperation of those applications are demonstrated toward public officials in charge of disaster management. The demonstration of information sharing among disaster related organizations focusing on issues about simultaneous multiple post-earthquake fires and rescue operations after an earthquake directly underneath Tokyo are reported.

Earthquake-induced subsidence and burial of late holocene archaeological sites, northern Oregon coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Minor, R.; Grant, W.C.

1996-01-01

Fire hearths associated with prehistoric Native American occupation lie within the youngest buried lowland soil of the estuaries along the Salmon and Nehalem rivers on the northern Oregon coast. This buried soil is the result of sudden subsidence induced by a great earthquake about 300 years ago along the Cascadia subduction zone, which extends offshore along the North Pacific Coast from Vancouver Island to northern California. The earthquake 300 years ago was the latest in a series of subsidence events along the Cascadia subduction zone over the last several thousand years. Over the long term, subsidence and burial of prehistoric settlements as a result of Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes have almost certainly been an important factor contributing to the limited time depth of the archaeological record along this section of the North Pacific Coast. Copyright ?? by the Society for American Archaeology.

Modeling drought impact occurrence based on climatological drought indices for four European countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stagge, James H.; Kohn, Irene; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Stahl, Kerstin

2014-05-01

The relationship between atmospheric conditions and the likelihood of a significant drought impact has, in the past, been difficult to quantify, particularly in Europe where political boundaries and language have made acquiring comprehensive drought impact information difficult. As such, the majority of studies linking meteorological drought with the occurrence or severity of drought impacts have previously focused on specific regions, very detailed impact types, or both. This study describes a new methodology to link the likelihood of drought impact occurrence with climatological drought indices across different European climatic regions and impact sectors using the newly developed European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII), a collaborative database of drought impact information (www.geo.uio.no/edc/droughtdb/). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) are used as predictor variables to quantify meteorological drought severity over prior time periods (here 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months are used). The indices are derived using the gridded WATCH Forcing Datasets, covering the period 1958-2012. Analysis was performed using logistic regression to identify the climatological drought index and accumulation period, or linear combination of drought indices, that best predicts the likelihood of a documented drought impact, defined by monthly presence/absence. The analysis was carried out for a subset of four European countries (Germany, UK, Norway, Slovenia) and four of the best documented impact sectors: Public Water Supply, Agriculture and Livestock Farming, Energy and Industry, and Environmental Quality. Preliminary results show that drought impacts in these countries occur most frequently due to a combination of short-term (2-6 month) precipitation deficits and long-term (12-24 month) potential evapotranspiration anomaly, likely associated with increased temperatures. Agricultural drought impacts

Earthquakes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walter, Edward J.

1977-01-01

Presents an analysis of the causes of earthquakes. Topics discussed include (1) geological and seismological factors that determine the effect of a particular earthquake on a given structure; (2) description of some large earthquakes such as the San Francisco quake; and (3) prediction of earthquakes. (HM)

The role of climate and vegetation change in shaping past and future fire regimes in the northwestern US and the implications for ecosystem management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitlock, C.; Shafer, S.L.; Marlon, J.

2003-01-01

Fire is an important part of the disturbance regimes of northwestern US forests and its role in maintaining and altering forest vegetation is evident in the paleoecological record of the region. Long-term reconstructions of Holocene fire regimes, provided by the analysis of charcoal, pollen, and other fire proxies in a network of lake records, indicate that the Pacific Northwest and summer-dry regions of the northern Rocky Mountains experienced their highest fire activity in the early Holocene (11,000-7000 years ago) and during the Medieval Warm Period (ca. 1000 years ago) when drought conditions were more severe than today. In contrast, in summer-wet areas of the northern Rocky Mountains, the period of highest fire activity was registered in the last 7000 years when dry woodland vegetation developed. When synthesized across the entire northwestern US, the paleoecological record reveals that past and present fire regimes are strongly controlled by climate changes occurring on multiple time scales. The scarcity of fires in the 20th century in some northwestern US ecosystems may be the result of successful fire suppression policies, but in wetter forests this absence is consistent with long-term fire regime patterns. In addition, simulations of potential future climate and vegetation indicate that future fire conditions in some parts of the northwestern US could be more severe than they are today. The Holocene record of periods of intensified summer drought is used to assess the nature of future fire-climate-vegetation linkages in the region. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Topographic variation in structure of mixed-conifer forests under an active-fire regime

Treesearch

Jamie Lydersen; Malcolm North

2012-01-01

Management efforts to promote forest resiliency as climate changes have often used historical forest conditions to provide general guidance for fuels reduction and forest restoration treatments. However, it has been difficult to identify what stand conditions might be fire and drought resilient because historical data and reconstruction studies are generally limited to...

Modeling Drought Impact Occurrence Based on Climatological Drought Indices for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stagge, J. H.; Kohn, I.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Stahl, K.

2014-12-01

Meteorological drought indices are often assumed to accurately characterize the severity of a drought event; however, these indices do not necessarily reflect the likelihood or severity of a particular type of drought impact experienced on the ground. In previous research, this link between index and impact was often estimated based on thresholds found by experience, measured using composite indices with assumed weighting schemes, or defined based on very narrow impact measures, using either a narrow spatial extent or very specific impacts. This study expands on earlier work by demonstrating the feasibility of relating user-provided impact reports to the climatological drought indices SPI and SPEI by logistic regression. The user-provided drought impact reports are based on the European Drought Impact Inventory (EDII, www.geo.uio.no/edc/droughtdb/), a newly developed online database that allows both public report submission and querying the more than 4,000 reported impacts spanning 33 European countries. This new tool is used to quantify the link between meteorological drought indices and impacts focusing on four primary impact types, spanning agriculture, energy and industry, public water supply, and freshwater ecosystem across five European countries. Statistically significant climate indices are retained as predictors using step-wise regression and used to compare the most relevant drought indices and accumulation periods for different impact types and regions. Agricultural impacts are explained best by 2-12 month anomalies, with 2-3 month anomalies found in predominantly rain-fed agricultural regions, and anomalies greater than 3 months related to agricultural management practices. Energy and industry impacts, related to hydropower and energy cooling water in these countries, respond to longer accumulated precipitation anomalies (6-12 months). Public water supply and freshwater ecosystem impacts are explained by a more complex combination of short (1-3 month

Using Rare Earth Element (REE) tracers to identify preferential micro-sites of post-fire aeolian erosion

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Plant communities in desert environments are spatially anisotropic and nutrient islands develop below plant canopies that enhance plant growth and reinforce the spatial anisotropy. Catastrophic disturbance that removes the vegetation such as fire or drought can result in the release of the trapped ...

Seasonal Water Storage, the Resulting Deformation and Stress, and Occurrence of Earthquakes in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, C. W.; Burgmann, R.; Fu, Y.; Dutilleul, P.

2015-12-01

In California the accumulated winter snow pack in the Sierra Nevada, reservoirs and groundwater water storage in the Central Valley follow an annual periodic cycle and each contribute to the resulting surface deformation, which can be observed using GPS time series. The ongoing drought conditions in the western U.S. amplify the observed uplift signal as the Earth's crust responds to the mass changes associated with the water loss. The near surface hydrological mass loss can result in annual stress changes of ~1kPa at seismogenic depths. Similarly, small static stress perturbations have previously been associated with changes in earthquake activity. Periodicity analysis of earthquake catalog time series suggest that periods of 4-, 6-, 12-, and 14.24-months are statistically significant in regions of California, and provide documentation for the modulation of earthquake populations at periods of natural loading cycles. Knowledge of what governs the timing of earthquakes is essential to understanding the nature of the earthquake cycle. If small static stress changes influence the timing of earthquakes, then one could expect that events will occur more rapidly during periods of greater external load increases. To test this hypothesis we develop a loading model using GPS derived surface water storage for California and calculate the stress change at seismogenic depths for different faulting geometries. We then evaluate the degree of correlation between the stress models and the seismicity taking into consideration the variable amplitude of stress cycles, the orientation of transient load stress with respect to the background stress field, and the geometry of active faults revealed by focal mechanisms.

Forest fire danger index based on modifying Nesterov Index, fuel, and anthropogenic activities using MODIS TERRA, AQUA and TRMM satellite datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suresh Babu, K. V.; Roy, Arijit; Ramachandra Prasad, P.

2016-05-01

Forest fire has been regarded as one of the major causes of degradation of Himalayan forests in Uttarakhand. Forest fires occur annually in more than 50% of forests in Uttarakhand state, mostly due to anthropogenic activities and spreads due to moisture conditions and type of forest fuels. Empirical drought indices such as Keetch-Byram drought index, the Nesterov index, Modified Nesterov index, the Zhdanko index which belongs to the cumulative type and the Angstrom Index which belongs to the daily type have been used throughout the world to assess the potential fire danger. In this study, the forest fire danger index has been developed from slightly modified Nesterov index, fuel and anthropogenic activities. Datasets such as MODIS TERRA Land Surface Temperature and emissivity (MOD11A1), MODIS AQUA Atmospheric profile product (MYD07) have been used to determine the dew point temperature and land surface temperature. Precipitation coefficient has been computed from Tropical Rainfall measuring Mission (TRMM) product (3B42RT). Nesterov index has been slightly modified according to the Indian context and computed using land surface temperature, dew point temperature and precipitation coefficient. Fuel type danger index has been derived from forest type map of ISRO based on historical fire location information and disturbance danger index has been derived from disturbance map of ISRO. Finally, forest fire danger index has been developed from the above mentioned indices and MODIS Thermal anomaly product (MOD14) has been used for validating the forest fire danger index.

Remote Sensing of Drought: Progress and Opportunities for Improving Drought Monitoring and Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AghaKouchak, A.; Huning, L. S.; Love, C. A.; Farahmand, A.

2017-12-01

This presentation surveys current and emerging drought monitoring approaches using satellite remote sensing observations from climatological and ecosystem perspectives. Satellite observations that are not currently used for operational drought monitoring, such as near-surface air relative humidity and water vapor, provide opportunities to improve early drought warning. Current and future satellite missions offer opportunities to develop composite and multi-indicator drought models. This presentation describes how different satellite observations can be combined for overall drought development and impact assessment. Finally, we provide an overview of the research gaps and challenges that are facing us ahead in the remote sensing of drought.

Earthquakes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pakiser, Louis C.

One of a series of general interest publications on science topics, the booklet provides those interested in earthquakes with an introduction to the subject. Following a section presenting an historical look at the world's major earthquakes, the booklet discusses earthquake-prone geographic areas, the nature and workings of earthquakes, earthquake…

Fire-induced erosion and millennial-scale climate change in northern ponderosa pine forests.

PubMed

Pierce, Jennifer L; Meyer, Grant A; Jull, A J Timothy

2004-11-04

Western US ponderosa pine forests have recently suffered extensive stand-replacing fires followed by hillslope erosion and sedimentation. These fires are usually attributed to increased stand density as a result of fire suppression, grazing and other land use, and are often considered uncharacteristic or unprecedented. Tree-ring records from the past 500 years indicate that before Euro-American settlement, frequent, low-severity fires maintained open stands. However, the pre-settlement period between about ad 1500 and ad 1900 was also generally colder than present, raising the possibility that rapid twentieth-century warming promoted recent catastrophic fires. Here we date fire-related sediment deposits in alluvial fans in central Idaho to reconstruct Holocene fire history in xeric ponderosa pine forests and examine links to climate. We find that colder periods experienced frequent low-severity fires, probably fuelled by increased understory growth. Warmer periods experienced severe droughts, stand-replacing fires and large debris-flow events that comprise a large component of long-term erosion and coincide with similar events in sub-alpine forests of Yellowstone National Park. Our results suggest that given the powerful influence of climate, restoration of processes typical of pre-settlement times may be difficult in a warmer future that promotes severe fires.

Global patterns of drought recovery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schwalm, Christopher R.; Anderegg, William R. L.; Michalak, Anna M.

Drought is a recurring multi-factor phenomenon with major impacts on natural and human systems1-3. Drought is especially important for land carbon sink variability, influencing climate regulation of the terrestrial biosphere4. While 20th Century trends in drought regime are ambiguous, “more extreme extremes” as well as more frequent and severe droughts3,7 are expected in the 21st Century. Recovery time, the length of time an ecosystem requires to revert to its pre-drought functional state, is a critical metric of drought impact. Yet the spatiotemporal patterning and controls of drought recovery are largely unknown. Here we use three distinct global datasets of grossmore » primary productivity to show that across diverse terrestrial ecosystems drought recovery times are driven by biological productivity and biodiversity, with drought length and severity of secondary importance. Recovery time, especially for extreme droughts, and the areal extent of ecosystems in recovery from drought generally increase over the 20th Century, supporting an increase globally in drought impact8. Our results indicate that if future Anthropocene droughts become more widespread as expected, that droughts will become more frequent relative to recovery time. This increases the risk of entering a new regime where vegetation never recovers to its original state and widespread degradation of the land carbon sink ensues.« less

Integrated Mapping of Drought-Impacted Areas in the Sierra-Nevada Foothills Region of California Using Landsat Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, M.

2014-12-01

Drought is a natural disaster with serious implications to environmental, social and economic well-being at local, regional and global scales. In its third year, California's drought condition has seriously impacted not just the agricultural sector, but also the natural resources sector including forestry, wildlife, and fisheries. As of July 15, 2014, the National Weather Service drought monitor shows 81% of California in the category of extreme drought. As future predictions of drought and fire severity become more real in California, there is an increased awareness to pursue innovative and cost-effective solutions that are based on silvicultural treatments and controlled burns to improve forest health and reduce the risk of high-severity wildfires. The main goal of this study is to develop a GIS map of the drought-impacted region of northern and central California using remote sensing data. Specifically, based on a geospatial database for the study region, Landsat imagery in conjunction with field and ancillary data will be analyzed using a combination of supervised and unsupervised classification techniques in addition to spectral indices such as the Modified Perpendicular Drought Index (MPDI). This spectral index basically scales the line perpendicular to the soil line defined in the Red-NIR feature space in conjunction with added information about vegetative fraction derived using NDVI. The image processing will be conducted for two time periods (2001 and 2014) to characterize the severity of the drought. In addition to field data, data collected by state agencies including calforests.org will be used in the classification and accuracy assessment procedures. Visual assessment using high-resolution imagery such as NAIP will be used to further refine the spatial maps. The drought severity maps produced will greatly facilitate site-specific planning efforts aimed at implementing resource management decisions.

Future Drought Projections over the Iberian Peninsula using Drought Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Valdecasas Ojeda, M.; Yeste Donaire, P.; Góngora García, T. M.; Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.; Castro-Diez, Y.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.

2017-12-01

Currently, drought events are the cause of numerous annual economic losses. In a context of climate change, it is expected an increase in the severity and the frequency of drought occurrences, especially in areas such as the Mediterranean region. This study makes use of two drought indices in order to analyze the potential changes on future drought events and their effects at different time scales over a vulnerable region, the Iberian Peninsula. The indices selected were the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which takes into account the global warming through the temperature, and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), based solely on precipitation data, at a spatial resolution of 0.088º ( 10 km). For their computation, current (1980-2014) and future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) high resolution simulations were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over a domain centered in the Iberian Peninsula, and nested in the 0.44 EUROCORDEX region. WRF simulations were driven by two different global bias-corrected climate models: the version 1 of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1) and the Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR), and under two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Future projections were analyzed regarding to changes in mean, median and variance of drought indices with respect to the historical distribution, as well as changes in the frequency and duration of moderate and severe drought events. In general, results suggest an increase in frequency and severity of drought, especially for 2071-2100 period in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Results also shown an increase of drought phenomena more evident using the SPEI. Conclusions from this study could provide a valuable contribution to the understanding of how the increase of the temperature would affect the drought variability in the Mediterranean regions which is necessary for a suitable

Application of effective drought index for quantification of meteorological drought events: a case study in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deo, Ravinesh C.; Byun, Hi-Ryong; Adamowski, Jan F.; Begum, Khaleda

2017-04-01

Drought indices (DIs) that quantify drought events by their onset, termination, and subsequent properties such as the severity, duration, and peak intensity are practical stratagems for monitoring and evaluating the impacts of drought. In this study, the effective drought index (EDI) calculated over daily timescales was utilized to quantify short-term (dry spells) and ongoing drought events using drought monitoring data in Australia. EDI was an intensive DI that considered daily water accumulation with a weighting function applied to daily rainfall data with the passage of time. A statistical analysis of the distribution of water deficit period relative to the base period was performed where a run-sum method was adopted to identify drought onset for any day ( i) with EDI i < 0 (rainfall below normal). Drought properties were enumerated in terms of (1) severity (AEDI ≡ accumulated sum of EDIi < 0), (2) duration (DS ≡ cumulative number of days with EDIi < 0), (3) peak intensity (EDImin ≡ minimum EDI of a drought event), (4) annual drought severity (YAEDI ≡ yearly accumulated negative EDI), and (5) accumulated severity of ongoing drought using event-accumulated EDI (EAEDI). The analysis of EDI signal enabled the detection and quantification of a number of drought events in Australia: Federation Drought (1897-1903), 1911-1916 Drought, 1925-1929 Drought, World War II Drought (1937-1945), and Millennium Drought (2002-2010). In comparison with the other droughts, Millennium Drought was exemplified as an unprecedented dry period especially in Victoria (EAEDI ≈ -4243, DS = 1946 days, EDImin = -4.05, and YAEDI = -4903). For the weather station tested in Northern Territory, the worst drought was recorded during 1925-1929 period. The results justified the suitability of effective drought index as a useful scientific tool for monitoring of drought progression, onset and termination, and ranking of drought based on severity, duration, and peak intensity, which allows

Toward a categorical drought prediction system based on U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) and climate forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Zengchao; Xia, Youlong; Luo, Lifeng; Singh, Vijay P.; Ouyang, Wei; Hao, Fanghua

2017-08-01

Disastrous impacts of recent drought events around the world have led to extensive efforts in drought monitoring and prediction. Various drought information systems have been developed with different indicators to provide early drought warning. The climate forecast from North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) has been among the most salient progress in climate prediction and its application for drought prediction has been considerably growing. Since its development in 1999, the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) has played a critical role in drought monitoring with different drought categories to characterize drought severity, which has been employed to aid decision making by a wealth of users such as natural resource managers and authorities. Due to wide applications of USDM, the development of drought prediction with USDM drought categories would greatly aid decision making. This study presented a categorical drought prediction system for predicting USDM drought categories in the U.S., based on the initial conditions from USDM and seasonal climate forecasts from NMME. Results of USDM drought categories predictions in the U.S. demonstrate the potential of the prediction system, which is expected to contribute to operational early drought warning in the U.S.

How useful are meteorological drought indicators to assess agricultural drought impacts across Europe?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachmair, Sophie; Tanguy, Maliko; Hannaford, Jamie; Stahl, Kerstin

2016-04-01

Drought monitoring and early warning (M&EW) is an important component of agricultural and silvicultural risk management. Meteorological indicators such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) are widely used in operational M&EW systems and for drought hazard assessment. Meteorological drought yet does not necessarily equate to agricultural drought given differences in drought susceptibility, e.g. crop-specific vulnerability, soil water holding capacity, irrigation and other management practices. How useful are meteorological indicators such as SPI to assess agricultural drought? Would the inclusion of vegetation indicators into drought M&EW systems add value for the agricultural sector? To answer these questions, it is necessary to investigate the link between meteorological indicators and agricultural impacts of drought. Crop yield or loss data is one source of information for drought impacts, yet mostly available as aggregated data at the annual scale. Remotely sensed vegetation stress data offer another possibility to directly assess agricultural impacts with high spatial and temporal resolution and are already used by some M&EW systems. At the same time, reduced crop yield and satellite-based vegetation stress potentially suffer from multi-causality. The aim of this study is therefore to investigate the relation between meteorological drought indicators and agricultural drought impacts for Europe, and to intercompare different agricultural impact variables. As drought indicators we used SPI and the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) for different accumulation periods. The focus regarding drought impact variables was on remotely sensed vegetation stress derived from MODIS NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and LST (Land Surface Temperature) data, but the analysis was complemented with crop yield data and text-based information from the European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII) for selected countries. A correlation analysis

In search of earthquake-related hydrologic and chemical changes along Hayward Fault

USGS Publications Warehouse

King, C.-Y.; Basler, D.; Presser, T.S.; Evans, William C.; White, L.D.; Minissale, A.

1994-01-01

Flow and chemical measurements have been made about once a month, and more frequently when required, since 1976 at two springs in Alum Rock Park in eastern San Jose, California, and since 1980 at two shallow wells in eastern Oakland in search of earthquake-related changes. All sites are on or near the Hayward Fault and are about 55 km apart. Temperature, electric conductivity, and water level or flow rate were measured in situ with portable instruments. Water samples were collected for later chemical and isotopic analyses in the laboratory. The measured flow rate at one of the springs showed a long-term decrease of about 40% since 1987, when a multi-year drought began in California. It also showed several increases that lasted a few days to a few months with amplitudes of 2.4 to 8.6 times the standard deviations above the background rate. Five of these increases were recorded shortly after nearby earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or larger, and may have resulted from unclogging of the flow path and increase of permeability caused by strong seismic shaking. Two other flow increases were possibly induced by exceptionally heavy rainfalls. The water in both wells showed seasonal temperature and chemical variations, largely in response to rainfall. In 1980 the water also showed some clear chemical changes unrelated to rainfall that lasted a few months; these changes were followed by a magnitude 4 earthquake 37 km away. The chemical composition at one of the wells and at the springs also showed some longer-term variations that were not correlated with rainfall but possibly correlated with the five earthquakes mentioned above. These correlations suggest a common tectonic origin for the earthquakes and the anomalies. The last variation at the affected well occurred abruptly in 1989, shortly before a magnitude 5.0 earthquake 54 km away. ?? 1993.

Strengthening community participation in reducing GHG emission from forest and peatland fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thoha, A. S.; Saharjo, B. H.; Boer, R.; Ardiansyah, M.

2018-02-01

Strengthening community participation is needed to find solutions to encourage community more participate in reducing Green House Gas (GHG) from forest and peatland fire. This research aimed to identify stakeholders that have the role in forest and peatland fire control and to formulate strengthening model of community participation through community-based early warning fire. Stakeholder mapping and action research were used to determine stakeholders that had potential influence and interest and to formulate strengthening model of community participation in reducing GHG from forest and peatland fire. There was found that position of key players in the mapping of stakeholders came from the government institution. The existence of community-based fire control group can strengthen government institution through collaborating with stakeholders having strong interest and influence. Moreover, it was found several local knowledge in Kapuas District about how communities predict drought that have potential value for developing the community-based early warning fire system. Formulated institutional model in this research also can be further developed as a model institution in the preservation of natural resources based on local knowledge. In conclusion, local knowledge and community-based fire groups can be integrated within strengthening model of community participation in reducing GHG from forest and peatland fire.

Chapter A. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Lifelines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schiff, Anshel J.

1998-01-01

To the general public who had their televisions tuned to watch the World Series, the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake was a lifelines earthquake. It was the images seen around the world of the collapsed Cypress Street viaduct, with the frantic and heroic efforts to pull survivors from the structure that was billowing smoke; the collapsed section of the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge and subsequent home video of a car plunging off the open span; and the spectacular fire in the Marina District of San Francisco fed by a broken gasline. To many of the residents of the San Francisco Bay region, the relation of lifelines to the earthquake was characterized by sitting in the dark because of power outage, the inability to make telephone calls because of network congestion, and the slow and snarled traffic. Had the public been aware of the actions of the engineers and tradespeople working for the utilities and other lifeline organizations on the emergency response and restoration of lifelines, the lifeline characteristics of this earthquake would have been even more significant. Unobserved by the public were the warlike devastation in several electrical-power substations, the 13 miles of gas-distribution lines that had to be replaced in several communities, and the more than 1,200 leaks and breaks in water mains and service connections that had to be excavated and repaired. Like the 1971 San Fernando, Calif., earthquake, which was a seminal event for activity to improve the earthquake performance of lifelines, the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake demonstrated that the tasks of preparing lifelines in 'earthquake country' were incomplete-indeed, new lessons had to be learned.

The U.S./Canadian GEO Bilateral Drought Indices and Definitions Study: Implications for the Canadian Drought Monitor and a Global Drought Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadwen, T.; Heim, R. R.; Howard, A.

2011-12-01

Drought is a difficult phenomenon to define; the way in which it is monitored, measured, assessed and even the very definition of drought vary from location to location based on the regional climate and the potential impacts. Drought is not an absolute condition but an evolving state brought on by relatively dry weather, growing more severe over time. There are many factors that define a drought and many more that define its impacts. Many definitions and indices are based solely on meteorological characteristics. Although this approach has merit, it is often necessary to go further to define those meteorological conditions in a way that is relevant to the land and water use in a region. A Drought Indices and Definitions Study was initiated in 2010 as part of a GEO Bilateral effort to examine drought across the U.S. and Canada. The Study's deliverables will include a survey of the drought indices used to monitor drought, and a bibliography of research addressing the nature of drought, across the diverse climates of the continent. With an increasing pressure to utilize drought monitoring as a primary indicator of need for disaster assistance, the reliability of drought indices must be validated and utilized in appropriate in various regions. In 2009, following over five years of participation in the North American Drought Monitor (NA-DM), the National Agroclimate Information Service of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada initiated a project to develop a Canadian Drought Monitor (Can-DM), based on primary principles used in the NA-DM and the US Drought Monitor (US-DM). The process of developing an operational monitoring tool and using drought indices in a vast and environmentally diverse country has been challenging. in Canada, many of the commonly used indices are not appropriate in certain regions or data densities do not allow for proper use. This paper will discuss the experiences that the Can-DM team has had dealing with these challenges, how these experiences

Global patterns of drought recovery

DOE PAGES

Schwalm, Christopher R.; Anderegg, William R. L.; Michalak, Anna M.; ...

2017-08-09

Drought has major impacts on natural and human systems, and is especially important for land carbon sink variability due to its influence on terrestrial biosphere climate regulation. While 20th Century trends in drought regimes have been varied, “more extreme extremes”, including more frequent and severe droughts, are expected in the 21st Century. Recovery time, the length of time an ecosystem requires to revert to its pre-drought functional state, is a critical metric of drought impact. Yet the factors influencing drought recovery and its spatiotemporal patterns are largely unknown. Here we use three independent global data products of gross primary productivitymore » to show that, across diverse terrestrial ecosystems, drought recovery times are strongly associated with climate and carbon cycle dynamics, with biodiversity and CO 2 fertilization as secondary factors. Our analysis also provides two key insights into the spatiotemporal patterns of drought recovery time: (1) Across the globe, recovery is longest in the tropics and high northern latitudes—critical tipping elements in Earth’s climate system. (2) Drought impacts, the area of ecosystems under active recovery and recovery times, have increased over the 20th century. If future droughts become more frequent, time between droughts may become shorter than drought recovery time, leading to chronically impacted ecosystems.« less

Global patterns of drought recovery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schwalm, Christopher R.; Anderegg, William R. L.; Michalak, Anna M.

Drought has major impacts on natural and human systems, and is especially important for land carbon sink variability due to its influence on terrestrial biosphere climate regulation. While 20th Century trends in drought regimes have been varied, “more extreme extremes”, including more frequent and severe droughts, are expected in the 21st Century. Recovery time, the length of time an ecosystem requires to revert to its pre-drought functional state, is a critical metric of drought impact. Yet the factors influencing drought recovery and its spatiotemporal patterns are largely unknown. Here we use three independent global data products of gross primary productivitymore » to show that, across diverse terrestrial ecosystems, drought recovery times are strongly associated with climate and carbon cycle dynamics, with biodiversity and CO 2 fertilization as secondary factors. Our analysis also provides two key insights into the spatiotemporal patterns of drought recovery time: (1) Across the globe, recovery is longest in the tropics and high northern latitudes—critical tipping elements in Earth’s climate system. (2) Drought impacts, the area of ecosystems under active recovery and recovery times, have increased over the 20th century. If future droughts become more frequent, time between droughts may become shorter than drought recovery time, leading to chronically impacted ecosystems.« less

Global patterns of drought recovery.

PubMed

Schwalm, Christopher R; Anderegg, William R L; Michalak, Anna M; Fisher, Joshua B; Biondi, Franco; Koch, George; Litvak, Marcy; Ogle, Kiona; Shaw, John D; Wolf, Adam; Huntzinger, Deborah N; Schaefer, Kevin; Cook, Robert; Wei, Yaxing; Fang, Yuanyuan; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Jain, Atul; Tian, Hanqin

2017-08-09

Drought, a recurring phenomenon with major impacts on both human and natural systems, is the most widespread climatic extreme that negatively affects the land carbon sink. Although twentieth-century trends in drought regimes are ambiguous, across many regions more frequent and severe droughts are expected in the twenty-first century. Recovery time-how long an ecosystem requires to revert to its pre-drought functional state-is a critical metric of drought impact. Yet the factors influencing drought recovery and its spatiotemporal patterns at the global scale are largely unknown. Here we analyse three independent datasets of gross primary productivity and show that, across diverse ecosystems, drought recovery times are strongly associated with climate and carbon cycle dynamics, with biodiversity and CO 2 fertilization as secondary factors. Our analysis also provides two key insights into the spatiotemporal patterns of drought recovery time: first, that recovery is longest in the tropics and high northern latitudes (both vulnerable areas of Earth's climate system) and second, that drought impacts (assessed using the area of ecosystems actively recovering and time to recovery) have increased over the twentieth century. If droughts become more frequent, as expected, the time between droughts may become shorter than drought recovery time, leading to permanently damaged ecosystems and widespread degradation of the land carbon sink.

Global patterns of drought recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwalm, Christopher R.; Anderegg, William R. L.; Michalak, Anna M.; Fisher, Joshua B.; Biondi, Franco; Koch, George; Litvak, Marcy; Ogle, Kiona; Shaw, John D.; Wolf, Adam; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Schaefer, Kevin; Cook, Robert; Wei, Yaxing; Fang, Yuanyuan; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Jain, Atul; Tian, Hanqin

2017-08-01

Drought, a recurring phenomenon with major impacts on both human and natural systems, is the most widespread climatic extreme that negatively affects the land carbon sink. Although twentieth-century trends in drought regimes are ambiguous, across many regions more frequent and severe droughts are expected in the twenty-first century. Recovery time—how long an ecosystem requires to revert to its pre-drought functional state—is a critical metric of drought impact. Yet the factors influencing drought recovery and its spatiotemporal patterns at the global scale are largely unknown. Here we analyse three independent datasets of gross primary productivity and show that, across diverse ecosystems, drought recovery times are strongly associated with climate and carbon cycle dynamics, with biodiversity and CO2 fertilization as secondary factors. Our analysis also provides two key insights into the spatiotemporal patterns of drought recovery time: first, that recovery is longest in the tropics and high northern latitudes (both vulnerable areas of Earth’s climate system) and second, that drought impacts (assessed using the area of ecosystems actively recovering and time to recovery) have increased over the twentieth century. If droughts become more frequent, as expected, the time between droughts may become shorter than drought recovery time, leading to permanently damaged ecosystems and widespread degradation of the land carbon sink.

Loss Estimations due to Earthquakes and Secondary Technological Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frolova, N.; Larionov, V.; Bonnin, J.

2009-04-01

Expected loss and damage assessment due to natural and technological disasters are of primary importance for emergency management just after the disaster, as well as for development and implementation of preventive measures plans. The paper addresses the procedures and simulation models for loss estimations due to strong earthquakes and secondary technological accidents. The mathematical models for shaking intensity distribution, damage to buildings and structures, debris volume, number of fatalities and injuries due to earthquakes and technological accidents at fire and chemical hazardous facilities are considered, which are used in geographical information systems assigned for these purposes. The criteria of technological accidents occurrence are developed on the basis of engineering analysis of past events' consequences. The paper is providing the results of scenario earthquakes consequences estimation and individual seismic risk assessment taking into account the secondary technological hazards at regional and urban levels. The individual risk is understood as the probability of death (or injuries) due to possible hazardous event within one year in a given territory. It is determined through mathematical expectation of social losses taking into account the number of inhabitants in the considered settlement and probability of natural and/or technological disaster.

Groundwater storage inferred from earthquake activities around East Asia and West Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shih, David Ching-Fang

2017-01-01

Groundwater is a necessary and indispensable resource in the gradual depletion of the amount in the world. Groundwater storage is an important indicator to evaluate the capability of volume of water can be released from the aquifer. This research highlights a new assessment to infer the storage of aquifer using earthquakes activated around East Asia and the ring of fire at West Pacific Ocean. Ten significant seismic events are used to evaluate the groundwater storage at an observation station. By analyzing the spectra of groundwater level and seismogram, it is evident that the period varied in 7-25 s of Rayleigh waves significantly dominate propagation from the epicenter of earthquakes to the observation station. The storage coefficient is then shown in the order of 10-4-10-3. The major innovation of this study suggests that to concretely deduce the groundwater storage by earthquake activity has become feasible.

Earthquake Hazard for Aswan High Dam Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail, Awad

2016-04-01

Earthquake activity and seismic hazard analysis are important components of the seismic aspects for very essential structures such as major dams. The Aswan High Dam (AHD) created the second man-made reservoir in the world (Lake Nasser) and is constructed near urban areas pose a high-risk potential for downstream life and property. The Dam area is one of the seismically active regions in Egypt and is occupied with several cross faults, which are dominant in the east-west and north-south. Epicenters were found to cluster around active faults in the northern part of Lake and AHD location. The space-time distribution and the relation of the seismicity with the lake water level fluctuations were studied. The Aswan seismicity separates into shallow and deep seismic zones, between 0 and 14 and 14 and 30 km, respectively. These two seismic zones behave differently over time, as indicated by the seismicity rate, lateral extent, b-value, and spatial clustering. It is characterized by earthquake swarm sequences showing activation of the clustering-events over time and space. The effect of the North African drought (1982 to present) is clearly seen in the reservoir water level. As it decreased and left the most active fault segments uncovered, the shallow activity was found to be more sensitive to rapid discharging than to the filling. This study indicates that geology, topography, lineations in seismicity, offsets in the faults, changes in fault trends and focal mechanisms are closely related. No relation was found between earthquake activity and both-ground water table fluctuations and water temperatures measured in wells located around the Kalabsha area. The peak ground acceleration is estimated in the dam site based on strong ground motion simulation. This seismic hazard analyses have indicated that AHD is stable with the present seismicity. The earthquake epicenters have recently took place approximately 5 km west of the AHD structure. This suggests that AHD dam must be

Drought trends in the Iberian Peninsula over the last 112 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gouveia, Célia M.; Ramos, Patrícia; Russo, Ana; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2015-04-01

time between drought events, although no clear pattern has emerged. Gouveia C.M., Bastos A., Trigo R.M., DaCamara C.C. (2012) "Drought impacts on vegetation in the pre and post-fire events over Iberian Peninsula". Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 12, 3123-3137, 2012. Hoerling, M., Eischeid, J., Perlwitz, J., Quan, X., Zhang, T., and Pegion, P. (2012). On the increased frequency of Mediterranean drought. J. Clim., 25, 2146-2161. Trigo R.M., Añel J., Barriopedro D., García-Herrera R., Gimeno L., Nieto R., Castillo R., Allen M.R., Massey N. (2013), The record Winter drought of 2011-12 in the Iberian Peninsula [in "Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective". [Peterson, T. C., M. P. Hoerling, P.A. Stott and S. Herring, Eds.] Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 94 (9), S41-S45. Vicente-Serrano S.M., López-Moreno J.I., Beguería S., Lorenzo-Lacruz J., Sanchez-Lorenzo A., García-Ruiz J.M., Azorin-Molina C., Móran-Tejeda E., Revuelto J., Trigo R., Coelho F., Espejo F.: Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe. Environmental Research Letters, 9, 044001, 2014. Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project QSECA (PTDC/AAGGLO/4155/2012).

Drought Monitoring with VegDRI

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Jesslyn F.

2010-01-01

Drought strikes somewhere in the United States every year, turning green landscapes brown as precipitation falls below normal levels and water supplies dwindle. Drought is typically a temporary climatic aberration, but it is also an insidious natural hazard. It might last for weeks, months, or years and may have many negative effects. Drought can threaten crops, livestock, and livelihoods, stress wildlife and habitats, and increase wildfire risks and threats to human health. Drought conditions can vary tremendously from place to place and week to week. Accurate drought monitoring is essential to understand a drought's progression and potential effects, and to provide information necessary to support drought mitigation decisions. It is also crucial in light of climate change where droughts could become more frequent, severe, and persistent.

Anthropogenic and Climatic Influence on Vegetation Fires in Peatland of Insular Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liew, S.; Miettinen, J.; Salinas Cortijo, S. V.

2011-12-01

Fire is traditionally used as a tool in land clearing by farmers and shifting cultivators in Southeast Asia. However, the small scale clearing of land is increasingly being replaced by modern large-scale conversion of forests into plantations/agricultural land, usually also by fires. Fires get out of control in periods of extreme drought, especially during the El Nino periods, resulting in severe episodes of transboundary air pollution in the form of smoke haze. We use the MODIS active fires product (hotspots) to establish correlations between the temporal and spatial patterns of vegetation fires with climatic variables, land cover change and soil type (peat or non-peat) in the western part of Insular Southeast Asia for a decade from 2001 to 2010. Fire occurrence exhibits a negative correlation with rainfall, and is more severe overall during the El-Nino periods. However, not all regions are equally affected by El-Nino. In Southern Sumatra and Southern Borneo the correlation with El-Nino is high. However, fires in some regions such as the peatland in Riau, Jambi and Sarawak do not appear to be influenced by El-Nino. These regions are also experiencing rapid conversion of forest to large scale plantations.

El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in Southeast Asia.

PubMed

Marlier, Miriam E; DeFries, Ruth S; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Kinney, Patrick L; Randerson, James T; Shindell, Drew T; Chen, Yang; Faluvegi, Greg

2013-01-01

Emissions from landscape fires affect both climate and air quality 1 . In this study, we combine satellite-derived fire estimates and atmospheric modeling to quantify health effects from fire emissions in Southeast Asia from 1997 to 2006. This region has large interannual variability in fire activity due to coupling between El Niño-induced droughts and anthropogenic land use change 2,3 . We show that during strong El Niño years, fires contribute up to 200 μg/m 3 and 50 ppb in annual average fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and ozone (O 3 ) surface concentrations near fire sources, respectively. This corresponds to a fire contribution of 200 additional days per year that exceed the World Health Organization (WHO) 50 μg/m 3 24-hour PM 2.5 interim target (IT-2) 4 and an estimated 10,800 (6,800-14,300) person (~2%) annual increase in regional adult cardiovascular mortality. Our results indicate that reducing regional deforestation and degradation fires would improve public health along with widely established benefits from reducing carbon emissions, preserving biodiversity, and maintaining ecosystem services.

Drought and Heat Waves: The Role of SST and Land Surface Feedbacks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried

2011-01-01

Drought occurs on a wide range of time scales, and within a variety of different types of regional climates. At the shortest time scales it is often associated with heat waves that last only several weeks to a few months but nevertheless can have profound detrimental impacts on society (e.g., heat-related impacts on human health, desiccation of croplands, increased fire hazard), while at the longest time scales it can extend over decades and can lead to long term structural changes in many aspects of society (e.g., agriculture, water resources, wetlands, tourism, population shifts). There is now considerable evidence that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) play a leading role in the development of drought world-wide, especially at seasonal and longer time scales, though land-atmosphere feedbacks can also play an important role. At shorter (subseasonal) time scales, SSTs are less important, but land feedbacks can play a critical role in maintaining and amplifying the atmospheric conditions associated with heat waves and short-term droughts. This talk reviews our current understanding of the physical mechanisms that drive precipitation and temperature variations on subseasonal to centennial time scales. This includes an assessment of predictability, prediction skill, and user needs at all time scales.

Fire and Deforestation Dynamics in South America over the Past 50 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Marle, M.; Field, R. D.; van der Werf, G.

2015-12-01

Fires play an important role in the Earth system and are one of the major sources of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Satellites have been key to understand their spatial and temporal variability in space and time, but the most frequently used satellite datasets start only in 1995. There are still large uncertainties about the frequency and intensity of fires in the pre-satellite time period, especially in regions with active deforestation, which may have changed dramatically in intensity in the past decades influencing fire dynamics. We used two datasets to extend the record of fires and deforestation in the Amazon region back in time: 1) annual forest loss rates starting in 1990 derived from Vegetation Optical Depth (VOD), which is a satellite-based vegetation product that can be used as proxy for forest loss, and 2) horizontal visibility as proxy for fire emissions, reported by weather stations and airports in the Amazon, which started around 1940, and having widespread coverage since 1973. We show that these datasets overlap with fire emission estimates from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) enabling us to estimate fire emissions over the last 50 years. We will discuss how fires have varied over time in this region with globally significant emissions, how droughts have influenced fire activity and deforestation rates, and what the impact is of land-use change caused by fire on emissions in the Amazon region.

Drought impacts on phloem transport

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sevanto, Sanna Annika

We report drought impacts on phloem transport have attracted attention only recently, despite the well-established, and empirically verified theories on drought impacts on water transport in plants in general. This is because studying phloem transport is challenging. Phloem tissue is relatively small and delicate, and it has often been assumed not to be impacted by drought, or having insignificant impact on plant function or survival compared to the xylem. New evidence, however, suggests that drought responses of the phloem might hold the key for predicting plant survival time during drought or revival capacity after drought. Lastly, this review summarizes currentmore » theories and empirical evidence on how drought might impact phloem transport, and evaluates these findings in relation to plant survival during drought.« less

Drought impacts on phloem transport

DOE PAGES

Sevanto, Sanna Annika

2018-02-12

We report drought impacts on phloem transport have attracted attention only recently, despite the well-established, and empirically verified theories on drought impacts on water transport in plants in general. This is because studying phloem transport is challenging. Phloem tissue is relatively small and delicate, and it has often been assumed not to be impacted by drought, or having insignificant impact on plant function or survival compared to the xylem. New evidence, however, suggests that drought responses of the phloem might hold the key for predicting plant survival time during drought or revival capacity after drought. Lastly, this review summarizes currentmore » theories and empirical evidence on how drought might impact phloem transport, and evaluates these findings in relation to plant survival during drought.« less

Reserves Protect against Deforestation Fires in the Amazon

PubMed Central

Adeney, J. Marion; Christensen, Norman L.; Pimm, Stuart L.

2009-01-01

Background Reserves are the principal means to conserve forests and biodiversity, but the question of whether reserves work is still debated. In the Amazon, fires are closely linked to deforestation, and thus can be used as a proxy for reserve effectiveness in protecting forest cover. We ask whether reserves in the Brazilian Amazon provide effective protection against deforestation and consequently fires, whether that protection is because of their location or their legal status, and whether some reserve types are more effective than others. Methodology/Principal Findings Previous work has shown that most Amazonian fires occur close to roads and are more frequent in El Niño years. We quantified these relationships for reserves and unprotected areas by examining satellite-detected hot pixels regressed against road distance across the entire Brazilian Amazon and for a decade with 2 El Niño-related droughts. Deforestation fires, as measured by hot pixels, declined exponentially with increasing distance from roads in all areas. Fewer deforestation fires occurred within protected areas than outside and the difference between protected and unprotected areas was greatest near roads. Thus, reserves were especially effective at preventing these fires where they are known to be most likely to burn; but they did not provide absolute protection. Even within reserves, at a given distance from roads, there were more deforestation fires in regions with high human impact than in those with low impact. The effect of El Niño on deforestation fires was greatest outside of reserves and near roads. Indigenous reserves, limited-use reserves, and fully protected reserves all had fewer fires than outside areas and did not appear to differ in their effectiveness. Conclusions/Significance Taking time, regional factors, and climate into account, our results show that reserves are an effective tool for curbing destructive burning in the Amazon. PMID:19352423

The 2004 Parkfield, CA Earthquake: A Teachable Moment for Exploring Earthquake Processes, Probability, and Earthquake Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafka, A.; Barnett, M.; Ebel, J.; Bellegarde, H.; Campbell, L.

2004-12-01

The occurrence of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake provided a unique "teachable moment" for students in our science course for teacher education majors. The course uses seismology as a medium for teaching a wide variety of science topics appropriate for future teachers. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake occurred just 15 minutes after our students completed a lab on earthquake processes and earthquake prediction. That lab included a discussion of the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment as a motivation for the exercises they were working on that day. Furthermore, this earthquake was recorded on an AS1 seismograph right in their lab, just minutes after the students left. About an hour after we recorded the earthquake, the students were able to see their own seismogram of the event in the lecture part of the course, which provided an excellent teachable moment for a lecture/discussion on how the occurrence of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake might affect seismologists' ideas about earthquake prediction. The specific lab exercise that the students were working on just before we recorded this earthquake was a "sliding block" experiment that simulates earthquakes in the classroom. The experimental apparatus includes a flat board on top of which are blocks of wood attached to a bungee cord and a string wrapped around a hand crank. Plate motion is modeled by slowly turning the crank, and earthquakes are modeled as events in which the block slips ("blockquakes"). We scaled the earthquake data and the blockquake data (using how much the string moved as a proxy for time) so that we could compare blockquakes and earthquakes. This provided an opportunity to use interevent-time histograms to teach about earthquake processes, probability, and earthquake prediction, and to compare earthquake sequences with blockquake sequences. We were able to show the students, using data obtained directly from their own lab, how global earthquake data fit a Poisson exponential distribution better

Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, hazard indicators and vulnerability factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blauhut, V.; Stahl, K.; Stagge, J. H.; Tallaksen, L. M.; De Stefano, L.; Vogt, J.

2015-12-01

Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work (1) tests the capability of commonly applied hazard indicators and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and (2) combines information on past drought impacts, drought hazard indicators, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This "hybrid approach" bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact forecast in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro region specific sensitivities of hazard indicators, with the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for a twelve month aggregation period (SPEI-12) as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictor, with information about landuse and water resources as best vulnerability-based predictors. (3) The application of the "hybrid approach" revealed strong regional (NUTS combo level) and sector specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer aggregation periods, and a combination of information on landuse and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information

The ambiguity of drought events, a bottleneck for Amazon forest drought response modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Deurwaerder, Hannes; Verbeeck, Hans; Baker, Timothy; Christoffersen, Bradley; Ciais, Philippe; Galbraith, David; Guimberteau, Matthieu; Kruijt, Bart; Langerwisch, Fanny; Meir, Patrick; Rammig, Anja; Thonicke, Kirsten; Von Randow, Celso; Zhang, Ke

2016-04-01

Considering the important role of the Amazon forest in the global water and carbon cycle, the prognosis of altered hydrological patterns resulting from climate change provides strong incentive for apprehending the direct implications of drought on the vegetation of this ecosystem. Dynamic global vegetation models have the potential of providing a useful tool to study drought impacts on various spatial and temporal scales. This however assumes the models being able to properly represent drought impact mechanisms. But how well do the models succeed in meeting this assumption? Within this study meteorological driver data and model output data of 4 different DGVMs, i.e. ORCHIDEE, JULES, INLAND and LPGmL, are studied. Using the palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and the mean cumulative water deficit (MWD), temporal and spatial representation of drought events are studied in the driver data and are referenced to historical extreme drought events in the Amazon. Subsequently, within the resulting temporal and spatial frame, we studied the drought impact on the above ground biomass (AGB) and gross primary production (GPP) fluxes. Flux tower data, field inventory data and the JUNG data-driven GPP product for the Amazon region are used for validation. Our findings not only suggest that the current state of the studied DGVMs is inadequate in representing Amazon droughts in general, but also highlights strong inter-model differences in drought responses. Using scatterplot-studies and input-output correlations, we provide insight in the origin of these encountered inter-model differences. In addition, we present directives of model development and improvement in scope of Amazon forest drought response modelling.

Observing Drought-Induced Groundwater Depletion in California with Seismic Noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clements, T.; Denolle, M.

2017-12-01

While heavy rainfall replenished reservoirs and snowpack recovered in winter 2016/2017, groundwater levels across much of California are still at or near all-time lows following one of the worst droughts in the state's history. Groundwater depletion in California has been studied extensively using GPS, InSAR, and GRACE. Here, we propose to monitor groundwater levels across California through measuring the temporal variation in seismic velocity (dv/v) at a regional scale. In the last decade, dv/v has emerged as a technique to investigate near surface and surficial processes such as landslides, volcanic eruptions, and earthquakes. Toward predicting groundwater levels through real-time monitoring with seismic noise, we investigate the relations between the dv/v time series and observed groundwater levels. 12 years (Jan 2006 - July 2017) of noise cross-correlation functions (CCF) are computed from continuous vertical component seismic data recorded at 100+ sites across California. Velocity changes (dv/v) are obtained by inverting all daily CCFs to produce a dv/v time series for each station pair. Our preliminary results show a seasonal variation in dv/v along with a gradual increase in dv/v throughout the drought. We interpret the increase in dv/v as a response to declining groundwater levels.

Global earthquake casualties due to secondary effects: A quantitative analysis for improving rapid loss analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marano, K.D.; Wald, D.J.; Allen, T.I.

2010-01-01

This study presents a quantitative and geospatial description of global losses due to earthquake-induced secondary effects, including landslide, liquefaction, tsunami, and fire for events during the past 40 years. These processes are of great importance to the US Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, which is currently being developed to deliver rapid earthquake impact and loss assessments following large/significant global earthquakes. An important question is how dominant are losses due to secondary effects (and under what conditions, and in which regions)? Thus, which of these effects should receive higher priority research efforts in order to enhance PAGER's overall assessment of earthquakes losses and alerting for the likelihood of secondary impacts? We find that while 21.5% of fatal earthquakes have deaths due to secondary (non-shaking) causes, only rarely are secondary effects the main cause of fatalities. The recent 2004 Great Sumatra-Andaman Islands earthquake is a notable exception, with extraordinary losses due to tsunami. The potential for secondary hazards varies greatly, and systematically, due to regional geologic and geomorphic conditions. Based on our findings, we have built country-specific disclaimers for PAGER that address potential for each hazard (Earle et al., Proceedings of the 14th World Conference of the Earthquake Engineering, Beijing, China, 2008). We will now focus on ways to model casualties from secondary effects based on their relative importance as well as their general predictability. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

Fine-scale spatial climate variation and drought mediate the likelihood of reburning.

PubMed

Parks, Sean A; Parisien, Marc-André; Miller, Carol; Holsinger, Lisa M; Baggett, Larry Scott

2018-03-01

In many forested ecosystems, it is increasingly recognized that the probability of burning is substantially reduced within the footprint of previously burned areas. This self-limiting effect of wildland fire is considered a fundamental emergent property of ecosystems and is partly responsible for structuring landscape heterogeneity (i.e., mosaics of different age classes), thereby reducing the likelihood of uncharacteristically large fires in regions with active fire regimes. However, the strength and longevity of this self-limiting phenomenon is not well understood in most fire-prone ecosystems. In this study, we quantify the self-limiting effect in terms of its strength and longevity for five fire-prone study areas in western North America and investigate how each measure varies along a spatial climatic gradient and according to temporal (i.e., annual) climatic variation. Results indicate that the longevity (i.e., number of years) of the self-limiting effect ranges between 15 yr in the warm and dry study area in the southwestern United States to 33 yr in the cold, northern study areas in located in northwestern Montana and the boreal forest of Canada. We also found that spatial climatic variation has a strong influence on wildland fire's self-limiting capacity. Specifically, the self-limiting effect within each study area was stronger and lasted longer in areas with low mean moisture deficit (i.e., wetter and cooler settings) compared to areas with high mean moisture deficit (warmer and drier settings). Last, our findings show that annual climatic variation influences wildland fire's self-limiting effect: drought conditions weakened the strength and longevity of the self-limiting effect in all study areas, albeit at varying magnitudes. Overall, our study provides support for the idea that wildland fire contributes to spatial heterogeneity in fuel ages that subsequently mediate future fire sizes and effects. However, our findings show that the strength and

[Earthquakes--a historical review, environmental and health effects, and health care measures].