Science.gov

Sample records for earthquake hazard information

  1. Assessing Lay Understanding of Common Presentations of Earthquake Hazard Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, K. J.; Krantz, D. H.

    2010-12-01

    The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) includes, in its introduction to earthquake rupture forecast maps, the assertion that "In daily living, people are used to making decisions based on probabilities -- from the flip of a coin (50% probability of heads) to weather forecasts (such as a 30% chance of rain) to the annual chance of being killed by lightning (about 0.0003%)." [3] However, psychology research identifies a large gap between lay and expert perception of risk for various hazards [2], and cognitive psychologists have shown in numerous studies [1,4-6] that people neglect, distort, misjudge, or misuse probabilities, even when given strong guidelines about the meaning of numerical or verbally stated probabilities [7]. The gap between lay and expert use of probability needs to be recognized more clearly by scientific organizations such as WGCEP. This study undertakes to determine how the lay public interprets earthquake hazard information, as presented in graphical map form by the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF), compiled by the WGCEP and other bodies including the USGS and CGS. It also explores alternate ways of presenting hazard data, to determine which presentation format most effectively translates information from scientists to public. Participants both from California and from elsewhere in the United States are included, to determine whether familiarity -- either with the experience of an earthquake, or with the geography of the forecast area -- affects people's ability to interpret an earthquake hazards map. We hope that the comparisons between the interpretations by scientific experts and by different groups of laypeople will both enhance theoretical understanding of factors that affect information transmission and assist bodies such as the WGCEP in their laudable attempts to help people prepare themselves and their communities for possible natural hazards. [1] Kahneman, D & Tversky, A (1979). Prospect

  2. Earthquake Hazards.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Donovan, Neville

    1979-01-01

    Provides a survey and a review of earthquake activity and global tectonics from the advancement of the theory of continental drift to the present. Topics include: an identification of the major seismic regions of the earth, seismic measurement techniques, seismic design criteria for buildings, and the prediction of earthquakes. (BT)

  3. 75 FR 8042 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-02-23

    ... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting AGENCY: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of open meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction.... FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Dr. Jack Hayes, National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program...

  4. Earthquake hazards: a national threat

    ,

    2006-01-01

    Earthquakes are one of the most costly natural hazards faced by the Nation, posing a significant risk to 75 million Americans in 39 States. The risks that earthquakes pose to society, including death, injury, and economic loss, can be greatly reduced by (1) better planning, construction, and mitigation practices before earthquakes happen, and (2) providing critical and timely information to improve response after they occur. As part of the multi-agency National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has the lead Federal responsibility to provide notification of earthquakes in order to enhance public safety and to reduce losses through effective forecasts based on the best possible scientific information.

  5. Turning the rumor of May 11, 2011 earthquake prediction In Rome, Italy, into an information day on earthquake hazard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amato, A.; Cultrera, G.; Margheriti, L.; Nostro, C.; Selvaggi, G.; INGVterremoti Team

    2011-12-01

    A devastating earthquake had been predicted for May 11, 2011 in Rome. This prediction was never released officially by anyone, but it grew up in the Internet and was amplified by media. It was erroneously ascribed to Raffaele Bendandi, an Italian self-taught natural scientist who studied planetary motions. Indeed, around May 11, 2011, a planetary alignment was really expected and this contributed to give credibility to the earthquake prediction among people. During the previous months, INGV was overwhelmed with requests for information about this supposed prediction by Roman inhabitants and tourists. Given the considerable mediatic impact of this expected earthquake, INGV decided to organize an Open Day in its headquarter in Rome for people who wanted to learn more about the Italian seismicity and the earthquake as natural phenomenon. The Open Day was preceded by a press conference two days before, in which we talked about this prediction, we presented the Open Day, and we had a scientific discussion with journalists about the earthquake prediction and more in general on the real problem of seismic risk in Italy. About 40 journalists from newspapers, local and national tv's, press agencies and web news attended the Press Conference and hundreds of articles appeared in the following days, advertising the 11 May Open Day. The INGV opened to the public all day long (9am - 9pm) with the following program: i) meetings with INGV researchers to discuss scientific issues; ii) visits to the seismic monitoring room, open 24h/7 all year; iii) guided tours through interactive exhibitions on earthquakes and Earth's deep structure; iv) lectures on general topics from the social impact of rumors to seismic risk reduction; v) 13 new videos on channel YouTube.com/INGVterremoti to explain the earthquake process and give updates on various aspects of seismic monitoring in Italy; vi) distribution of books and brochures. Surprisingly, more than 3000 visitors came to visit INGV

  6. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment along Nankai Trough (1) An assessment based on the information of the forthcoming earthquake that Earthquake Research Committee(2013) evaluated

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirata, K.; Fujiwara, H.; Nakamura, H.; Osada, M.; Morikawa, N.; Kawai, S.; Ohsumi, T.; Aoi, S.; Yamamoto, N.; Matsuyama, H.; Toyama, N.; Kito, T.; Murashima, Y.; Murata, Y.; Inoue, T.; Saito, R.; Takayama, J.; Akiyama, S.; Korenaga, M.; Abe, Y.; Hashimoto, N.

    2015-12-01

    The Earthquake Research Committee(ERC)/HERP, Government of Japan (2013) revised their long-term evaluation of the forthcoming large earthquake along the Nankai Trough; the next earthquake is estimated M8 to 9 class, and the probability (P30) that the next earthquake will occur within the next 30 years (from Jan. 1, 2013) is 60% to 70%. In this study, we assess tsunami hazards (maximum coastal tsunami heights) in the near future, in terms of a probabilistic approach, from the next earthquake along Nankai Trough, on the basis of ERC(2013)'s report. The probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment that we applied is as follows; (1) Characterized earthquake fault models (CEFMs) are constructed on each of the 15 hypothetical source areas (HSA) that ERC(2013) showed. The characterization rule follows Toyama et al.(2015, JpGU). As results, we obtained total of 1441 CEFMs. (2) We calculate tsunamis due to CEFMs by solving nonlinear, finite-amplitude, long-wave equations with advection and bottom friction terms by finite-difference method. Run-up computation on land is included. (3) A time predictable model predicts the recurrent interval of the present seismic cycle is T=88.2 years (ERC,2013). We fix P30 = 67% by applying the renewal process based on BPT distribution with T and alpha=0.24 as its aperiodicity. (4) We divide the probability P30 into P30(i) for i-th subgroup consisting of the earthquakes occurring in each of 15 HSA by following a probability re-distribution concept (ERC,2014). Then each earthquake (CEFM) in i-th subgroup is assigned a probability P30(i)/N where N is the number of CEFMs in each sub-group. Note that such re-distribution concept of the probability is nothing but tentative because the present seismology cannot give deep knowledge enough to do it. Epistemic logic-tree approach may be required in future. (5) We synthesize a number of tsunami hazard curves at every evaluation points on coasts by integrating the information about 30 years occurrence

  7. The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks. The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of

  8. Understanding earthquake hazards in urban areas - Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project

    Boyd, Oliver S.

    2012-01-01

    The region surrounding Evansville, Indiana, has experienced minor damage from earthquakes several times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and the proximity of Evansville to the Wabash Valley and New Madrid seismic zones, there is concern among nearby communities about hazards from earthquakes. Earthquakes currently cannot be predicted, but scientists can estimate how strongly the ground is likely to shake as a result of an earthquake and are able to design structures to withstand this estimated ground shaking. Earthquake-hazard maps provide one way of conveying such information and can help the region of Evansville prepare for future earthquakes and reduce earthquake-caused loss of life and financial and structural loss. The Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project (EAEHMP) has produced three types of hazard maps for the Evansville area: (1) probabilistic seismic-hazard maps show the ground motion that is expected to be exceeded with a given probability within a given period of time; (2) scenario ground-shaking maps show the expected shaking from two specific scenario earthquakes; (3) liquefaction-potential maps show how likely the strong ground shaking from the scenario earthquakes is to produce liquefaction. These maps complement the U.S. Geological Survey's National Seismic Hazard Maps but are more detailed regionally and take into account surficial geology, soil thickness, and soil stiffness; these elements greatly affect ground shaking.

  9. The use of geologic and seismologic information to reduce earthquake Hazards in California

    Kockelman, W.J.; Campbell, C.C.

    1984-01-01

    Five examples illustrate how geologic and seismologic information can be used to reduce the effects of earthquakes Included are procedures for anticipating damage to critical facilities, preparing, adopting, or implementing seismic safety studies, plans, and programs, retrofitting highway bridges, regulating development in areas subject to fault-rupture, and strengthening or removing unreinforced masonry buildings. The collective effect of these procedures is to improve the public safety, health, and welfare of individuals and their communities. ?? 1984 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  10. 75 FR 50749 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-08-17

    ... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting AGENCY: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of open meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction... on NEHRP earthquake related activities and to gather information for the 2011 Annual Report of the...

  11. Oregon Hazard Explorer for Lifelines Program (OHELP): A web-based geographic information system tool for assessing potential Cascadia earthquake hazard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharifi Mood, M.; Olsen, M. J.; Gillins, D. T.; Javadnejad, F.

    2016-12-01

    The Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) has the ability to generate earthquake as powerful as 9 moment magnitude creating great amount of damage to structures and facilities in Oregon. Series of deterministic earthquake analysis are performed for M9.0, M8.7, M8.4 and M8.1 presenting persistent, long lasting shaking associated with other geological threats such as ground shaking, landslides, liquefaction-induced ground deformations, fault rupture vertical displacement, tsunamis, etc. These ground deformation endangers urban structures, foundations, bridges, roadways, pipelines and other lifelines. Lifeline providers in Oregon, including private and public practices responsible for transportation, electric and gas utilities, water and wastewater, fuel, airports, and harbors face an aging infrastructure that was built prior to a full understanding of this extreme seismic risk. As recently experienced in Chile and Japan, a three to five minutes long earthquake scenario, expected in Oregon, necessities a whole different method of risk mitigation for these major lifelines than those created for shorter shakings from crustal earthquakes. A web-based geographic information system tool is developed to fully assess the potential hazard from the multiple threats impending from Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes in the region. The purpose of this website is to provide easy access to the latest and best available hazard information over the web, including work completed in the recent Oregon Resilience Plan (ORP) (OSSPAC, 2013) and other work completed by the Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS). As a result, this tool is designated for engineers, planners, geologists, and others who need this information to help make appropriate decisions despite the fact that this web-GIS tool only needs minimal knowledge of GIS to work with.

  12. Spatial earthquake hazard assessment of Evansville, Indiana

    Rockaway, T.D.; Frost, J.D.; Eggert, D.L.; Luna, R.

    1997-01-01

    The earthquake hazard has been evaluated for a 150-square-kilometer area around Evansville, Indiana. GIS-QUAKE, a system that combines liquefaction and ground motion analysis routines with site-specific geological, geotechnical, and seismological information, was used for the analysis. The hazard potential was determined by using 586 SPT borings, 27 CPT sounding, 39 shear-wave velocity profiles and synthesized acceleration records for body-wave magnitude 6.5 and 7.3 mid-continental earthquakes, occurring at distances of 50 km and 250 km, respectively. The results of the GIS-QUAKE hazard analyses for Evansville identify areas with a high hazard potential that had not previously been identified in earthquake zonation studies. The Pigeon Creek area specifically is identified as having significant potential for liquefaction-induced damage. Damage as a result of ground motion amplification is determined to be a moderate concern throughout the area. Differences in the findings of this zonation study and previous work are attributed to the size and range of the database, the hazard evaluation methodologies, and the geostatistical interpolation techniques used to estimate the hazard potential. Further, assumptions regarding the groundwater elevations made in previous studies are also considered to have had a significant effect on the results.

  13. 13 CFR 120.174 - Earthquake hazards.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Earthquake hazards. 120.174... Applying to All Business Loans Requirements Imposed Under Other Laws and Orders § 120.174 Earthquake..., the construction must conform with the “National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (“NEHRP...

  14. 13 CFR 120.174 - Earthquake hazards.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Earthquake hazards. 120.174... Applying to All Business Loans Requirements Imposed Under Other Laws and Orders § 120.174 Earthquake..., the construction must conform with the “National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (“NEHRP...

  15. Understanding and responding to earthquake hazards

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raymond, C. A.; Lundgren, P. R.; Madsen, S. N.; Rundle, J. B.

    2002-01-01

    Advances in understanding of the earthquake cycle and in assessing earthquake hazards is a topic of great importance. Dynamic earthquake hazard assessments resolved for a range of spatial scales and time scales will allow a more systematic approach to prioritizing the retrofitting of vulnerable structures, relocating populations at risk, protecting lifelines, preparing for disasters, and educating the public.

  16. 13 CFR 120.174 - Earthquake hazards.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Earthquake hazards. 120.174... Applying to All Business Loans Requirements Imposed Under Other Laws and Orders § 120.174 Earthquake..., the construction must conform with the “National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (“NEHRP...

  17. 13 CFR 120.174 - Earthquake hazards.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Earthquake hazards. 120.174... Applying to All Business Loans Requirements Imposed Under Other Laws and Orders § 120.174 Earthquake..., the construction must conform with the “National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (“NEHRP...

  18. Integrating landslide and liquefaction hazard and loss estimates with existing USGS real-time earthquake information products

    Allstadt, Kate E.; Thompson, Eric M.; Hearne, Mike; Nowicki Jessee, M. Anna; Zhu, J.; Wald, David J.; Tanyas, Hakan

    2017-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has made significant progress toward the rapid estimation of shaking and shakingrelated losses through their Did You Feel It? (DYFI), ShakeMap, ShakeCast, and PAGER products. However, quantitative estimates of the extent and severity of secondary hazards (e.g., landsliding, liquefaction) are not currently included in scenarios and real-time post-earthquake products despite their significant contributions to hazard and losses for many events worldwide. We are currently running parallel global statistical models for landslides and liquefaction developed with our collaborators in testing mode, but much work remains in order to operationalize these systems. We are expanding our efforts in this area by not only improving the existing statistical models, but also by (1) exploring more sophisticated, physics-based models where feasible; (2) incorporating uncertainties; and (3) identifying and undertaking research and product development to provide useful landslide and liquefaction estimates and their uncertainties. Although our existing models use standard predictor variables that are accessible globally or regionally, including peak ground motions, topographic slope, and distance to water bodies, we continue to explore readily available proxies for rock and soil strength as well as other susceptibility terms. This work is based on the foundation of an expanding, openly available, case-history database we are compiling along with historical ShakeMaps for each event. The expected outcome of our efforts is a robust set of real-time secondary hazards products that meet the needs of a wide variety of earthquake information users. We describe the available datasets and models, developments currently underway, and anticipated products. 

  19. St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project

    Williams, Robert A.; Steckel, Phyllis; Schweig, Eugene

    2007-01-01

    St. Louis has experienced minor earthquake damage at least 12 times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and its proximity to known active earthquake zones, the St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project will produce digital maps that show variability of earthquake hazards in the St. Louis area. The maps will be available free via the internet. They can be customized by the user to show specific areas of interest, such as neighborhoods or transportation routes.

  20. Volunteers in the earthquake hazard reduction program

    Ward, P.L.

    1978-01-01

    With this in mind, I organized a small workshop for approximately 30 people on February 2 and 3, 1978, in Menlo Park, Calif. the purpose of the meeting was to discuss methods of involving volunteers in a meaningful way in earthquake research and in educating the public about earthquake hazards. The emphasis was on earthquake prediction research, but the discussions covered the whole earthquake hazard reduction program. Representatives attended from the earthquake research community, from groups doing socioeconomic research on earthquake matters, and from a wide variety of organizations who might sponsor volunteers. 

  1. Proceedings of Conference V: communicating earthquake hazard reduction information: convened under auspices of National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program 22-24 May, 1978

    Hays, Walter W.

    1978-01-01

    (11) achieving landslide hazard reduction. The objective was to identify the most significant lessons learned during the course of each experience and to develop recommendations for improving communication that might be incorporated in the search program of the USGS.

  2. 75 FR 18787 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-04-13

    ... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting AGENCY: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of open meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction... sent to National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program Director, National Institute of Standards and...

  3. Two examples of earthquake- hazard reduction in southern California.

    Kockelman, W.J.; Campbell, C.C.

    1983-01-01

    Because California is seismically active, planners and decisionmakers must try to anticipate earthquake hazards there and, where possible, to reduce the hazards. Geologic and seismologic information provides the basis for the necessary plans and actions. Two examples of how such information is used are presented. The first involves assessing the impact of a major earthquake on critical facilities in southern California, and the second involves strengthening or removing unsafe masonry buildings in the Los Angeles area. -from Authors

  4. Earthquake Hazard Analysis Methods: A Review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sari, A. M.; Fakhrurrozi, A.

    2018-02-01

    One of natural disasters that have significantly impacted on risks and damage is an earthquake. World countries such as China, Japan, and Indonesia are countries located on the active movement of continental plates with more frequent earthquake occurrence compared to other countries. Several methods of earthquake hazard analysis have been done, for example by analyzing seismic zone and earthquake hazard micro-zonation, by using Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (N-DSHA) method, and by using Remote Sensing. In its application, it is necessary to review the effectiveness of each technique in advance. Considering the efficiency of time and the accuracy of data, remote sensing is used as a reference to the assess earthquake hazard accurately and quickly as it only takes a limited time required in the right decision-making shortly after the disaster. Exposed areas and possibly vulnerable areas due to earthquake hazards can be easily analyzed using remote sensing. Technological developments in remote sensing such as GeoEye-1 provide added value and excellence in the use of remote sensing as one of the methods in the assessment of earthquake risk and damage. Furthermore, the use of this technique is expected to be considered in designing policies for disaster management in particular and can reduce the risk of natural disasters such as earthquakes in Indonesia.

  5. Earthquake Hazard Assessment: Basics of Evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir

    2016-04-01

    Seismic hazard assessment (SHA) is not an easy task that implies a delicate application of statistics to data of limited size and different accuracy. Earthquakes follow the Unified Scaling Law that generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship by taking into account naturally fractal distribution of their sources. Moreover, earthquakes, including the great and mega events, are clustered in time and their sequences have irregular recurrence intervals. Furthermore, earthquake related observations are limited to the recent most decades (or centuries in just a few rare cases). Evidently, all this complicates reliable assessment of seismic hazard and associated risks. Making SHA claims, either termless or time dependent (so-called t-DASH), quantitatively probabilistic in the frames of the most popular objectivists' viewpoint on probability requires a long series of "yes/no" trials, which cannot be obtained without an extended rigorous testing of the method predictions against real observations. Therefore, we reiterate the necessity and possibility of applying the modified tools of Earthquake Prediction Strategies, in particular, the Error Diagram, introduced by G.M. Molchan in early 1990ies for evaluation of SHA, and the Seismic Roulette null-hypothesis as a measure of the alerted space. The set of errors, i.e. the rates of failure and of the alerted space-time volume, compared to those obtained in the same number of random guess trials permits evaluating the SHA method effectiveness and determining the optimal choice of the parameters in regard to specified cost-benefit functions. These and other information obtained in such a testing supplies us with a realistic estimate of confidence in SHA results and related recommendations on the level of risks for decision making in regard to engineering design, insurance, and emergency management. These basics of SHA evaluation are exemplified in brief with a few examples, which analyses in more detail are given in a poster of

  6. Earthquake hazards in the Alaska transportation corridors

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1983-03-01

    Based on observations made by modern seismographic networks since 1967, and taking into consideration historical records of large Alaskan earthquakes in the past, it is judged that the hazards faced by transportation corridors in different areas of t...

  7. 13 CFR 120.174 - Earthquake hazards.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Earthquake hazards. 120.174 Section 120.174 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Policies Applying to All Business Loans Requirements Imposed Under Other Laws and Orders § 120.174 Earthquake...

  8. Earthquake Hazard and Risk in New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Apel, E. V.; Nyst, M.; Fitzenz, D. D.; Molas, G.

    2014-12-01

    To quantify risk in New Zealand we examine the impact of updating the seismic hazard model. The previous RMS New Zealand hazard model is based on the 2002 probabilistic seismic hazard maps for New Zealand (Stirling et al., 2002). The 2015 RMS model, based on Stirling et al., (2012) will update several key source parameters. These updates include: implementation a new set of crustal faults including multi-segment ruptures, updating the subduction zone geometry and reccurrence rate and implementing new background rates and a robust methodology for modeling background earthquake sources. The number of crustal faults has increased by over 200 from the 2002 model, to the 2012 model which now includes over 500 individual fault sources. This includes the additions of many offshore faults in northern, east-central, and southwest regions. We also use the recent data to update the source geometry of the Hikurangi subduction zone (Wallace, 2009; Williams et al., 2013). We compare hazard changes in our updated model with those from the previous version. Changes between the two maps are discussed as well as the drivers for these changes. We examine the impact the hazard model changes have on New Zealand earthquake risk. Considered risk metrics include average annual loss, an annualized expected loss level used by insurers to determine the costs of earthquake insurance (and premium levels), and the loss exceedance probability curve used by insurers to address their solvency and manage their portfolio risk. We analyze risk profile changes in areas with large population density and for structures of economic and financial importance. New Zealand is interesting in that the city with the majority of the risk exposure in the country (Auckland) lies in the region of lowest hazard, where we don't have a lot of information about the location of faults and distributed seismicity is modeled by averaged Mw-frequency relationships on area sources. Thus small changes to the background rates

  9. Issues on the Japanese Earthquake Hazard Evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashimoto, M.; Fukushima, Y.; Sagiya, T.

    2013-12-01

    The 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake forced the policy of counter-measurements to earthquake disasters, including earthquake hazard evaluations, to be changed in Japan. Before the March 11, Japanese earthquake hazard evaluation was based on the history of earthquakes that repeatedly occurs and the characteristic earthquake model. The source region of an earthquake was identified and its occurrence history was revealed. Then the conditional probability was estimated using the renewal model. However, the Japanese authorities changed the policy after the megathrust earthquake in 2011 such that the largest earthquake in a specific seismic zone should be assumed on the basis of available scientific knowledge. According to this policy, three important reports were issued during these two years. First, the Central Disaster Management Council issued a new estimate of damages by a hypothetical Mw9 earthquake along the Nankai trough during 2011 and 2012. The model predicts a 34 m high tsunami on the southern Shikoku coast and intensity 6 or higher on the JMA scale in most area of Southwest Japan as the maximum. Next, the Earthquake Research Council revised the long-term earthquake hazard evaluation of earthquakes along the Nankai trough in May 2013, which discarded the characteristic earthquake model and put much emphasis on the diversity of earthquakes. The so-called 'Tokai' earthquake was negated in this evaluation. Finally, another report by the CDMC concluded that, with the current knowledge, it is hard to predict the occurrence of large earthquakes along the Nankai trough using the present techniques, based on the diversity of earthquake phenomena. These reports created sensations throughout the country and local governments are struggling to prepare counter-measurements. These reports commented on large uncertainty in their evaluation near their ends, but are these messages transmitted properly to the public? Earthquake scientists, including authors, are involved in

  10. Earthquake Hazard Assessment: an Independent Review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir

    2016-04-01

    Seismic hazard assessment (SHA), from term-less (probabilistic PSHA or deterministic DSHA) to time-dependent (t-DASH) including short-term earthquake forecast/prediction (StEF), is not an easy task that implies a delicate application of statistics to data of limited size and different accuracy. Regretfully, in many cases of SHA, t-DASH, and StEF, the claims of a high potential and efficiency of the methodology are based on a flawed application of statistics and hardly suitable for communication to decision makers. The necessity and possibility of applying the modified tools of Earthquake Prediction Strategies, in particular, the Error Diagram, introduced by G.M. Molchan in early 1990ies for evaluation of SHA, and the Seismic Roulette null-hypothesis as a measure of the alerted space, is evident, and such a testing must be done in advance claiming hazardous areas and/or times. The set of errors, i.e. the rates of failure and of the alerted space-time volume, compared to those obtained in the same number of random guess trials permits evaluating the SHA method effectiveness and determining the optimal choice of the parameters in regard to specified cost-benefit functions. These and other information obtained in such a testing may supply us with a realistic estimate of confidence in SHA results and related recommendations on the level of risks for decision making in regard to engineering design, insurance, and emergency management. These basics of SHA evaluation are exemplified with a few cases of misleading "seismic hazard maps", "precursors", and "forecast/prediction methods".

  11. Earthquake hazard assessment after Mexico (1985).

    PubMed

    Degg, M R

    1989-09-01

    The 1985 Mexican earthquake ranks foremost amongst the major earthquake disasters of the twentieth century. One of the few positive aspects of the disaster is that it provided massive quantities of data that would otherwise have been unobtainable. Every opportunity should be taken to incorporate the findings from these data in earthquake hazard assessments. The purpose of this paper is to provide a succinct summary of some of the more important lessons from Mexico. It stems from detailed field investigations, and subsequent analyses, conducted by the author on the behalf of reinsurance companies.

  12. Landslide Hazards After the 2005 Kashmir Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bulmer, Mark; Farquhar, Tony; Roshan, Masud; Akhtar, Sadar Saeed; Wahla, Sajjad Karamat

    2007-01-01

    The 8 October 2005 Kashmir earthquake killed 87,300 people and disrupted the lives of several million more. By current estimates, 30,000 still live in camps sited more in accordance with short term expedience than with freedom from risk of natural hazards. In December 2006, the international aid community expressed fears that 50,000 people in Northwest Frontier Province may leave their mountain homes this winter as landslides and avalanches block access roads. As the focus of humanitarian assistance shifts toward restoration of Kashmir's infrastructure, it is important that the persistent hazard of landslides within the earthquake affected region be understood and recognized.

  13. Earthquake hazards on the cascadia subduction zone.

    PubMed

    Heaton, T H; Hartzell, S H

    1987-04-10

    Large subduction earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone pose a potential seismic hazard. Very young oceanic lithosphere (10 million years old) is being subducted beneath North America at a rate of approximately 4 centimeters per year. The Cascadia subduction zone shares many characteristics with subduction zones in southern Chile, southwestern Japan, and Colombia, where comparably young oceanic lithosphere is also subducting. Very large subduction earthquakes, ranging in energy magnitude (M(w)) between 8 and 9.5, have occurred along these other subduction zones. If the Cascadia subduction zone is also storing elastic energy, a sequence of several great earthquakes (M(w) 8) or a giant earthquake (M(w) 9) would be necessary to fill this 1200-kilometer gap. The nature of strong ground motions recorded during subduction earthquakes of M(w) less than 8.2 is discussed. Strong ground motions from even larger earthquakes (M(w) up to 9.5) are estimated by simple simulations. If large subduction earthquakes occur in the Pacific Northwest, relatively strong shaking can be expected over a large region. Such earthquakes may also be accompanied by large local tsunamis.

  14. Seismic survey probes urban earthquake hazards in Pacific Northwest

    Fisher, M.A.; Brocher, T.M.; Hyndman, R.D.; Trehu, A.M.; Weaver, C.S.; Creager, K.C.; Crosson, R.S.; Parsons, T.; Cooper, A. K.; Mosher, D.; Spence, G.; Zelt, B.C.; Hammer, P.T.; Childs, J. R.; Cochrane, G.R.; Chopra, S.; Walia, R.

    1999-01-01

    A multidisciplinary seismic survey earlier this year in the Pacific Northwest is expected to reveal much new information about the earthquake threat to U.S. and Canadian urban areas there. A disastrous earthquake is a very real possibility in the region. The survey, known as the Seismic Hazards Investigation in Puget Sound (SHIPS), engendered close cooperation among geologists, biologists, environmental groups, and government agencies. It also succeeded in striking a fine balance between the need to prepare for a great earthquake and the requirement to protect a coveted marine environment while operating a large airgun array.

  15. Playing against nature: improving earthquake hazard mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stein, S. A.; Stein, J.

    2012-12-01

    The great 2011 Tohoku earthquake dramatically demonstrated the need to improve earthquake and tsunami hazard assessment and mitigation policies. The earthquake was much larger than predicted by hazard models, and the resulting tsunami overtopped coastal defenses, causing more than 15,000 deaths and $210 billion damage. Hence if and how such defenses should be rebuilt is a challenging question, because the defences fared poorly and building ones to withstand tsunamis as large as March's is too expensive,. A similar issue arises along the Nankai Trough to the south, where new estimates warning of tsunamis 2-5 times higher than in previous models raise the question of what to do, given that the timescale on which such events may occur is unknown. Thus in the words of economist H. Hori, "What should we do in face of uncertainty? Some say we should spend our resources on present problems instead of wasting them on things whose results are uncertain. Others say we should prepare for future unknown disasters precisely because they are uncertain". Thus society needs strategies to mitigate earthquake and tsunami hazards that make economic and societal sense, given that our ability to assess these hazards is poor, as illustrated by highly destructive earthquakes that often occur in areas predicted by hazard maps to be relatively safe. Conceptually, we are playing a game against nature "of which we still don't know all the rules" (Lomnitz, 1989). Nature chooses tsunami heights or ground shaking, and society selects the strategy to minimize the total costs of damage plus mitigation costs. As in any game of chance, we maximize our expectation value by selecting the best strategy, given our limited ability to estimate the occurrence and effects of future events. We thus outline a framework to find the optimal level of mitigation by balancing its cost against the expected damages, recognizing the uncertainties in the hazard estimates. This framework illustrates the role of the

  16. 77 FR 19224 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-03-30

    ... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting AGENCY: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of open meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction... should be sent to National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program Director, National Institute of Standards...

  17. 77 FR 27439 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-05-10

    ... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting AGENCY: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of open meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction... should be sent to National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program Director, National Institute of Standards...

  18. 78 FR 8109 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-02-05

    ... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting AGENCY: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of open meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction... meeting on the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) web site at http://nehrp.gov...

  19. 75 FR 75457 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-12-03

    ... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting AGENCY: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of open meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction... meeting should be sent to National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program Director, National Institute of...

  20. 76 FR 64325 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-10-18

    ... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting AGENCY: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of open meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction... relationship of Presidential Policy Directive/PPD-8: National Preparedness to National Earthquake Hazards...

  1. 76 FR 72905 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-11-28

    ... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting AGENCY: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of open meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction.... ADDRESSES: Questions regarding the meeting should be sent to National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program...

  2. 76 FR 8712 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-02-15

    ... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting AGENCY: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of open meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction... Committee's 2011 Annual Report of the Effectiveness of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program...

  3. 77 FR 18792 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-03-28

    ... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting AGENCY: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of open meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction... should be sent to National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program Director, National Institute of Standards...

  4. 77 FR 75610 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-12-21

    ... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting AGENCY: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of open meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction... meeting on the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) Web site at http://nehrp.gov...

  5. Earthquake Information System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    IAEMIS (Integrated Automated Emergency Management Information System) is the principal tool of an earthquake preparedness program developed by Martin Marietta and the Mid-America Remote Sensing Center (MARC). It is a two-component set of software, data and procedures to provide information enabling management personnel to make informed decisions in disaster situations. The NASA-developed program ELAS, originally used to analyze Landsat data, provides MARC with a spatially-oriented information management system. Additional MARC projects include land resources management, and development of socioeconomic data.

  6. The 1909 Taipei earthquake: implication for seismic hazard in Taipei

    Kanamori, Hiroo; Lee, William H.K.; Ma, Kuo-Fong

    2012-01-01

    The 1909 April 14 Taiwan earthquake caused significant damage in Taipei. Most of the information on this earthquake available until now is from the written reports on its macro-seismic effects and from seismic station bulletins. In view of the importance of this event for assessing the shaking hazard in the present-day Taipei, we collected historical seismograms and station bulletins of this event and investigated them in conjunction with other seismological data. We compared the observed seismograms with those from recent earthquakes in similar tectonic environments to characterize the 1909 earthquake. Despite the inevitably large uncertainties associated with old data, we conclude that the 1909 Taipei earthquake is a relatively deep (50–100 km) intraplate earthquake that occurred within the subducting Philippine Sea Plate beneath Taipei with an estimated M_W of 7 ± 0.3. Some intraplate events elsewhere in the world are enriched in high-frequency energy and the resulting ground motions can be very strong. Thus, despite its relatively large depth and a moderately large magnitude, it would be prudent to review the safety of the existing structures in Taipei against large intraplate earthquakes like the 1909 Taipei earthquake.

  7. Probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis for Cairo, Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2016-04-01

    Cairo is the capital of Egypt and the largest city in the Arab world and Africa, and the sixteenth largest metropolitan area in the world. It was founded in the tenth century (969 ad) and is 1046 years old. It has long been a center of the region's political and cultural life. Therefore, the earthquake risk assessment for Cairo has a great importance. The present work aims to analysis the earthquake hazard of Cairo as a key input's element for the risk assessment. The regional seismotectonics setting shows that Cairo could be affected by both far- and near-field seismic sources. The seismic hazard of Cairo has been estimated using the probabilistic seismic hazard approach. The logic tree frame work was used during the calculations. Epistemic uncertainties were considered into account by using alternative seismotectonics models and alternative ground motion prediction equations. Seismic hazard values have been estimated within a grid of 0.1° × 0.1 ° spacing for all of Cairo's districts at different spectral periods and four return periods (224, 615, 1230, and 4745 years). Moreover, the uniform hazard spectra have been calculated at the same return periods. The pattern of the contour maps show that the highest values of the peak ground acceleration is concentrated in the eastern zone's districts (e.g., El Nozha) and the lowest values at the northern and western zone's districts (e.g., El Sharabiya and El Khalifa).

  8. Earthquake Hazard and Risk in Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Black Porto, N.; Nyst, M.

    2014-12-01

    Alaska is one of the most seismically active and tectonically diverse regions in the United States. To examine risk, we have updated the seismic hazard model in Alaska. The current RMS Alaska hazard model is based on the 2007 probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Alaska (Wesson et al., 2007; Boyd et al., 2007). The 2015 RMS model will update several key source parameters, including: extending the earthquake catalog, implementing a new set of crustal faults, updating the subduction zone geometry and reoccurrence rate. First, we extend the earthquake catalog to 2013; decluster the catalog, and compute new background rates. We then create a crustal fault model, based on the Alaska 2012 fault and fold database. This new model increased the number of crustal faults from ten in 2007, to 91 faults in the 2015 model. This includes the addition of: the western Denali, Cook Inlet folds near Anchorage, and thrust faults near Fairbanks. Previously the subduction zone was modeled at a uniform depth. In this update, we model the intraslab as a series of deep stepping events. We also use the best available data, such as Slab 1.0, to update the geometry of the subduction zone. The city of Anchorage represents 80% of the risk exposure in Alaska. In the 2007 model, the hazard in Alaska was dominated by the frequent rate of magnitude 7 to 8 events (Gutenberg-Richter distribution), and large magnitude 8+ events had a low reoccurrence rate (Characteristic) and therefore didn't contribute as highly to the overall risk. We will review these reoccurrence rates, and will present the results and impact to Anchorage. We will compare our hazard update to the 2007 USGS hazard map, and discuss the changes and drivers for these changes. Finally, we will examine the impact model changes have on Alaska earthquake risk. Consider risk metrics include average annual loss, an annualized expected loss level used by insurers to determine the costs of earthquake insurance (and premium levels), and the

  9. Assessing the earthquake hazards in urban areas

    Hays, W.W.; Gori, P.L.; Kockelman, W.J.

    1988-01-01

    Major urban areas in widely scattered geographic locations across the United States are a t varying degrees of risk from earthquakes. the locations of these urban areas include Charleston, South Carolina; Memphis Tennessee; St.Louis, Missouri; Salt Lake City, Utah; Seattle-Tacoma, Washington; Portland, Oregon; and Anchorage, Alaska; even Boston, Massachusetts, and Buffalo New York, have a history of large earthquakes. Cooperative research during the past decade has focused on assessing the nature and degree of the risk or seismic hazard i nthe broad geographic regions around each urban area. The strategy since the 1970's has been to bring together local, State, and Federal resources to solve the problem of assessing seismic risk. Successfl sooperative programs have been launched in the San Francisco Bay and Los Angeles regions in California and the Wasatch Front region in Utah. 

  10. Earthquake Hazard for Aswan High Dam Area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ismail, Awad

    2016-04-01

    Earthquake activity and seismic hazard analysis are important components of the seismic aspects for very essential structures such as major dams. The Aswan High Dam (AHD) created the second man-made reservoir in the world (Lake Nasser) and is constructed near urban areas pose a high-risk potential for downstream life and property. The Dam area is one of the seismically active regions in Egypt and is occupied with several cross faults, which are dominant in the east-west and north-south. Epicenters were found to cluster around active faults in the northern part of Lake and AHD location. The space-time distribution and the relation of the seismicity with the lake water level fluctuations were studied. The Aswan seismicity separates into shallow and deep seismic zones, between 0 and 14 and 14 and 30 km, respectively. These two seismic zones behave differently over time, as indicated by the seismicity rate, lateral extent, b-value, and spatial clustering. It is characterized by earthquake swarm sequences showing activation of the clustering-events over time and space. The effect of the North African drought (1982 to present) is clearly seen in the reservoir water level. As it decreased and left the most active fault segments uncovered, the shallow activity was found to be more sensitive to rapid discharging than to the filling. This study indicates that geology, topography, lineations in seismicity, offsets in the faults, changes in fault trends and focal mechanisms are closely related. No relation was found between earthquake activity and both-ground water table fluctuations and water temperatures measured in wells located around the Kalabsha area. The peak ground acceleration is estimated in the dam site based on strong ground motion simulation. This seismic hazard analyses have indicated that AHD is stable with the present seismicity. The earthquake epicenters have recently took place approximately 5 km west of the AHD structure. This suggests that AHD dam must be

  11. Earthquake Hazards Program Could Have New Leadership

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    The interagency National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) in the United States will have new leadership and increased authorized funding, if bipartisan re-authorization legislation approved by the House of Representatives on 1 October becomes law. The bill, H. R. 2608, would elevate the National Institute of Standards and Technology as the lead agency for planning and coordinating NEHRP, replacing the Federal Emergency Management Agency in that role. The NEHRP, established by Congress in 1977, also includes the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Science Foundation (NSF) as agency partners.

  12. Preliminary Earthquake Hazard Map of Afghanistan

    Boyd, Oliver S.; Mueller, Charles S.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

    2007-01-01

    Introduction Earthquakes represent a serious threat to the people and institutions of Afghanistan. As part of a United States Agency for International Development (USAID) effort to assess the resource potential and seismic hazards of Afghanistan, the Seismic Hazard Mapping group of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) has prepared a series of probabilistic seismic hazard maps that help quantify the expected frequency and strength of ground shaking nationwide. To construct the maps, we do a complete hazard analysis for each of ~35,000 sites in the study area. We use a probabilistic methodology that accounts for all potential seismic sources and their rates of earthquake activity, and we incorporate modeling uncertainty by using logic trees for source and ground-motion parameters. See the Appendix for an explanation of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and discussion of seismic risk. Afghanistan occupies a southward-projecting, relatively stable promontory of the Eurasian tectonic plate (Ambraseys and Bilham, 2003; Wheeler and others, 2005). Active plate boundaries, however, surround Afghanistan on the west, south, and east. To the west, the Arabian plate moves northward relative to Eurasia at about 3 cm/yr. The active plate boundary trends northwestward through the Zagros region of southwestern Iran. Deformation is accommodated throughout the territory of Iran; major structures include several north-south-trending, right-lateral strike-slip fault systems in the east and, farther to the north, a series of east-west-trending reverse- and strike-slip faults. This deformation apparently does not cross the border into relatively stable western Afghanistan. In the east, the Indian plate moves northward relative to Eurasia at a rate of about 4 cm/yr. A broad, transpressional plate-boundary zone extends into eastern Afghanistan, trending southwestward from the Hindu Kush in northeast Afghanistan, through Kabul, and along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border

  13. A stochastic automata network for earthquake simulation and hazard estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belubekian, Maya Ernest

    1998-11-01

    This research develops a model for simulation of earthquakes on seismic faults with available earthquake catalog data. The model allows estimation of the seismic hazard at a site of interest and assessment of the potential damage and loss in a region. There are two approaches for studying the earthquakes: mechanistic and stochastic. In the mechanistic approach, seismic processes, such as changes in stress or slip on faults, are studied in detail. In the stochastic approach, earthquake occurrences are simulated as realizations of a certain stochastic process. In this dissertation, a stochastic earthquake occurrence model is developed that uses the results from dislocation theory for the estimation of slip released in earthquakes. The slip accumulation and release laws and the event scheduling mechanism adopted in the model result in a memoryless Poisson process for the small and moderate events and in a time- and space-dependent process for large events. The minimum and maximum of the hazard are estimated by the model when the initial conditions along the faults correspond to a situation right after a largest event and after a long seismic gap, respectively. These estimates are compared with the ones obtained from a Poisson model. The Poisson model overestimates the hazard after the maximum event and underestimates it in the period of a long seismic quiescence. The earthquake occurrence model is formulated as a stochastic automata network. Each fault is divided into cells, or automata, that interact by means of information exchange. The model uses a statistical method called bootstrap for the evaluation of the confidence bounds on its results. The parameters of the model are adjusted to the target magnitude patterns obtained from the catalog. A case study is presented for the city of Palo Alto, where the hazard is controlled by the San Andreas, Hayward and Calaveras faults. The results of the model are used to evaluate the damage and loss distribution in Palo Alto

  14. 77 FR 64314 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-10-19

    ... is to discuss engineering needs for existing buildings, to review the National Earthquake Hazards... Committee business. The final agenda will be posted on the NEHRP Web site at http://nehrp.gov/ . DATES: The... assesses: Trends and developments in the science and engineering of earthquake hazards reduction; The...

  15. Loss Estimations due to Earthquakes and Secondary Technological Hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frolova, N.; Larionov, V.; Bonnin, J.

    2009-04-01

    Expected loss and damage assessment due to natural and technological disasters are of primary importance for emergency management just after the disaster, as well as for development and implementation of preventive measures plans. The paper addresses the procedures and simulation models for loss estimations due to strong earthquakes and secondary technological accidents. The mathematical models for shaking intensity distribution, damage to buildings and structures, debris volume, number of fatalities and injuries due to earthquakes and technological accidents at fire and chemical hazardous facilities are considered, which are used in geographical information systems assigned for these purposes. The criteria of technological accidents occurrence are developed on the basis of engineering analysis of past events' consequences. The paper is providing the results of scenario earthquakes consequences estimation and individual seismic risk assessment taking into account the secondary technological hazards at regional and urban levels. The individual risk is understood as the probability of death (or injuries) due to possible hazardous event within one year in a given territory. It is determined through mathematical expectation of social losses taking into account the number of inhabitants in the considered settlement and probability of natural and/or technological disaster.

  16. Seismic hazard assessment over time: Modelling earthquakes in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chan, Chung-Han; Wang, Yu; Wang, Yu-Ju; Lee, Ya-Ting

    2017-04-01

    To assess the seismic hazard with temporal change in Taiwan, we develop a new approach, combining both the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) model and the Coulomb stress change, and implement the seismogenic source parameters by the Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM). The BPT model was adopted to describe the rupture recurrence intervals of the specific fault sources, together with the time elapsed since the last fault-rupture to derive their long-term rupture probability. We also evaluate the short-term seismicity rate change based on the static Coulomb stress interaction between seismogenic sources. By considering above time-dependent factors, our new combined model suggests an increased long-term seismic hazard in the vicinity of active faults along the western Coastal Plain and the Longitudinal Valley, where active faults have short recurrence intervals and long elapsed time since their last ruptures, and/or short-term elevated hazard levels right after the occurrence of large earthquakes due to the stress triggering effect. The stress enhanced by the February 6th, 2016, Meinong ML 6.6 earthquake also significantly increased rupture probabilities of several neighbouring seismogenic sources in Southwestern Taiwan and raised hazard level in the near future. Our approach draws on the advantage of incorporating long- and short-term models, to provide time-dependent earthquake probability constraints. Our time-dependent model considers more detailed information than any other published models. It thus offers decision-makers and public officials an adequate basis for rapid evaluations of and response to future emergency scenarios such as victim relocation and sheltering.

  17. National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program; time to expand

    Steinbrugge, K.V.

    1990-01-01

    All of us in earthquake engineering, seismology, and many related disciplines have been directly or indirectly affected by the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP). This program was the result of the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-124). With well over a decade of experience, should this expression of public policy now take a different or expanded role? 

  18. Integrating Real-time Earthquakes into Natural Hazard Courses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Furlong, K. P.; Benz, H. M.; Whitlock, J. S.; Bittenbinder, A. N.; Bogaert, B. B.

    2001-12-01

    real-time, consulting other members of their class and accessing the E-DBMS server and other links to glean information that they will then use to make decisions. Students wrestle with the complications in interpreting natural hazard data, evaluating whether a response is needed, and problems such as those associated with communication between media and the public through these focused exercises. Although earthquakes are targeted at present, similar DBMS systems are envisioned for other natural hazards like flooding, volcanoes, and severe weather. We are testing this system as a prototype intended to be expanded to provide web-based access to classes at both the middle/high school and college/university levels.

  19. How Can Museum Exhibits Enhance Earthquake and Tsunami Hazard Resiliency?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olds, S. E.

    2015-12-01

    Creating a natural disaster-ready community requires interoperating scientific, technical, and social systems. In addition to the technical elements that need to be in place, communities and individuals need to be prepared to react when a natural hazard event occurs. Natural hazard awareness and preparedness training and education often takes place through informal learning at science centers and formal k-12 education programs as well as through awareness raising via strategically placed informational tsunami warning signs and placards. Museums and science centers are influential in raising science literacy within a community, however can science centers enhance earthquake and tsunami resiliency by providing hazard science content and preparedness exhibits? Museum docents and informal educators are uniquely situated within the community. They are transmitters and translators of science information to broad audiences. Through interaction with the public, docents are well positioned to be informants of the knowledge beliefs, and feelings of science center visitors. They themselves are life-long learners, both constantly learning from the museum content around them and sharing this content with visitors. They are also members of a community where they live. In-depth interviews with museum informal educators and docents were conducted at a science center in coastal Pacific Northwest. This region has a potential to be struck by a great 9+ Mw earthquake and subsequent tsunami. During the interviews, docents described how they applied learning from natural hazard exhibits at a science visitor center to their daily lives. During the individual interviews, the museum docents described their awareness (knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors) of natural hazards where they live and work, the feelings evoked as they learned about their hazard vulnerability, the extent to which they applied this learning and awareness to their lives, such as creating an evacuation plan, whether

  20. Stability assessment of structures under earthquake hazard through GRID technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prieto Castrillo, F.; Boton Fernandez, M.

    2009-04-01

    This work presents a GRID framework to estimate the vulnerability of structures under earthquake hazard. The tool has been designed to cover the needs of a typical earthquake engineering stability analysis; preparation of input data (pre-processing), response computation and stability analysis (post-processing). In order to validate the application over GRID, a simplified model of structure under artificially generated earthquake records has been implemented. To achieve this goal, the proposed scheme exploits the GRID technology and its main advantages (parallel intensive computing, huge storage capacity and collaboration analysis among institutions) through intensive interaction among the GRID elements (Computing Element, Storage Element, LHC File Catalogue, federated database etc.) The dynamical model is described by a set of ordinary differential equations (ODE's) and by a set of parameters. Both elements, along with the integration engine, are encapsulated into Java classes. With this high level design, subsequent improvements/changes of the model can be addressed with little effort. In the procedure, an earthquake record database is prepared and stored (pre-processing) in the GRID Storage Element (SE). The Metadata of these records is also stored in the GRID federated database. This Metadata contains both relevant information about the earthquake (as it is usual in a seismic repository) and also the Logical File Name (LFN) of the record for its later retrieval. Then, from the available set of accelerograms in the SE, the user can specify a range of earthquake parameters to carry out a dynamic analysis. This way, a GRID job is created for each selected accelerogram in the database. At the GRID Computing Element (CE), displacements are then obtained by numerical integration of the ODE's over time. The resulting response for that configuration is stored in the GRID Storage Element (SE) and the maximum structure displacement is computed. Then, the corresponding

  1. Earthquake and Tsunami History and Hazards of Eastern Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Major, J. R.; Robinson, J. S.; Harris, R. A.

    2008-12-01

    Western Indonesia (i.e. Java and Sumatra) has received much attention by geoscientists, especially in recent years due to events such as the Sumatra-Andaman event of 2004. However, the seismic history of eastern Indonesia is not widely known, notwithstanding the high rate of seismic activity in the area and high convergence rates. Not only do geologic hazards (i.e. strong earthquakes, tsunami, and explosive volcanoes) comparable to those in western part of the country exist, but population has increased nearly 10 fold in the last century. Our historical research of earthquakes and tsunami in eastern Indonesia based primarily on records of Dutch Colonists has uncovered a violent history of earthquakes and tsunami from 1608 to 1877. During this time eastern Indonesia experienced over 30 significant earthquakes and 35 tsunamis. Most of these events are much larger than any recorded in the last century. Due to this marked quiescence over the past century, and recent events in the Sunda arc over the past several years, we have initiated a new investigation of the region that integrates these historic events, field investigations, and, in the future, tsunami modeling. A more complete and comprehensive seismic history of eastern Indonesia is necessary for effective risk assessment. This information, along with renewed efforts by scientists and government will be crucial for disaster mitigation and to save lives.

  2. Vulnerability of port and harbor communities to earthquake and tsunami hazards: The use of GIS in community hazard planning

    Wood, Nathan J.; Good, James W.

    2004-01-01

    AbstractEarthquakes and tsunamis pose significant threats to Pacific Northwest coastal port and harbor communities. Developing holistic mitigation and preparedness strategies to reduce the potential for loss of life and property damage requires community-wide vulnerability assessments that transcend traditional site-specific analyses. The ability of a geographic information system (GIS) to integrate natural, socioeconomic, and hazards information makes it an ideal assessment tool to support community hazard planning efforts. This article summarizes how GIS was used to assess the vulnerability of an Oregon port and harbor community to earthquake and tsunami hazards, as part of a larger risk-reduction planning initiative. The primary purposes of the GIS were to highlight community vulnerability issues and to identify areas that both are susceptible to hazards and contain valued port and harbor community resources. Results of the GIS analyses can help decision makers with limited mitigation resources set priorities for increasing community resiliency to natural hazards.

  3. International Collaboration for Strengthening Capacity to Assess Earthquake Hazard in Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cummins, P. R.; Hidayati, S.; Suhardjono, S.; Meilano, I.; Natawidjaja, D.

    2012-12-01

    Indonesia has experienced a dramatic increase in earthquake risk due to rapid population growth in the 20th century, much of it occurring in areas near the subduction zone plate boundaries that are prone to earthquake occurrence. While recent seismic hazard assessments have resulted in better building codes that can inform safer building practices, many of the fundamental parameters controlling earthquake occurrence and ground shaking - e.g., fault slip rates, earthquake scaling relations, ground motion prediction equations, and site response - could still be better constrained. In recognition of the need to improve the level of information on which seismic hazard assessments are based, the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID) and Indonesia's National Agency for Disaster Management (BNPB), through the Australia-Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction, have initiated a 4-year project designed to strengthen the Government of Indonesia's capacity to reliably assess earthquake hazard. This project is a collaboration of Australian institutions including Geoscience Australia and the Australian National University, with Indonesian government agencies and universities including the Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics, the Geological Agency, the Indonesian Institute of Sciences, and Bandung Institute of Technology. Effective earthquake hazard assessment requires input from many different types of research, ranging from geological studies of active faults, seismological studies of crustal structure, earthquake sources and ground motion, PSHA methodology, and geodetic studies of crustal strain rates. The project is a large and diverse one that spans all these components, and these will be briefly reviewed in this presentation

  4. Salient beliefs about earthquake hazards and household preparedness.

    PubMed

    Becker, Julia S; Paton, Douglas; Johnston, David M; Ronan, Kevin R

    2013-09-01

    Prior research has found little or no direct link between beliefs about earthquake risk and household preparedness. Furthermore, only limited work has been conducted on how people's beliefs influence the nature and number of preparedness measures adopted. To address this gap, 48 qualitative interviews were undertaken with residents in three urban locations in New Zealand subject to seismic risk. The study aimed to identify the diverse hazard and preparedness-related beliefs people hold and to articulate how these are influenced by public education to encourage preparedness. The study also explored how beliefs and competencies at personal, social, and environmental levels interact to influence people's risk management choices. Three main categories of beliefs were found: hazard beliefs; preparedness beliefs; and personal beliefs. Several salient beliefs found previously to influence the preparedness process were confirmed by this study, including beliefs related to earthquakes being an inevitable and imminent threat, self-efficacy, outcome expectancy, personal responsibility, responsibility for others, and beliefs related to denial, fatalism, normalization bias, and optimistic bias. New salient beliefs were also identified (e.g., preparedness being a "way of life"), as well as insight into how some of these beliefs interact within the wider informational and societal context. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project (EAEHMP) - Progress Report, 2008

    Boyd, Oliver S.; Haase, Jennifer L.; Moore, David W.

    2009-01-01

    Maps of surficial geology, deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard, and liquefaction potential index have been prepared by various members of the Evansville Area Earthquake Hazard Mapping Project for seven quadrangles in the Evansville, Indiana, and Henderson, Kentucky, metropolitan areas. The surficial geologic maps feature 23 types of surficial geologic deposits, artificial fill, and undifferentiated bedrock outcrop and include alluvial and lake deposits of the Ohio River valley. Probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard and liquefaction hazard mapping is made possible by drawing on a wealth of information including surficial geologic maps, water well logs, and in-situ testing profiles using the cone penetration test, standard penetration test, down-hole shear wave velocity tests, and seismic refraction tests. These data were compiled and collected with contributions from the Indiana Geological Survey, Kentucky Geological Survey, Illinois State Geological Survey, United States Geological Survey, and Purdue University. Hazard map products are in progress and are expected to be completed by the end of 2009, with a public roll out in early 2010. Preliminary results suggest that there is a 2 percent probability that peak ground accelerations of about 0.3 g will be exceeded in much of the study area within 50 years, which is similar to the 2002 USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps for a firm rock site value. Accelerations as high as 0.4-0.5 g may be exceeded along the edge of the Ohio River basin. Most of the region outside of the river basin has a low liquefaction potential index (LPI), where the probability that LPI is greater than 5 (that is, there is a high potential for liquefaction) for a M7.7 New Madrid type event is only 20-30 percent. Within the river basin, most of the region has high LPI, where the probability that LPI is greater than 5 for a New Madrid type event is 80-100 percent.

  6. Composite Earthquake Catalog of the Yellow Sea for Seismic Hazard Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, S. Y.; Kim, K. H.; LI, Z.; Hao, T.

    2017-12-01

    The Yellow Sea (a.k.a West Sea in Korea) is an epicontinental and semi-closed sea located between Korea and China. Recent earthquakes in the Yellow Sea including, but not limited to, the Seogyuckryulbi-do (1 April 2014, magnitude 5.1), Heuksan-do (21 April 2013, magnitude 4.9), Baekryung-do (18 May 2013, magnitude 4.9) earthquakes, and the earthquake swarm in the Boryung offshore region in 2013, remind us of the seismic hazards affecting east Asia. This series of earthquakes in the Yellow Sea raised numerous questions. Unfortunately, both governments have trouble in monitoring seismicity in the Yellow Sea because earthquakes occur beyond their seismic networks. For example, the epicenters of the magnitude 5.1 earthquake in the Seogyuckryulbi-do region in 2014 reported by the Korea Meteorological Administration and China Earthquake Administration differed by approximately 20 km. This illustrates the difficulty with seismic monitoring and locating earthquakes in the region, despite the huge effort made by both governments. Joint effort is required not only to overcome the limits posed by political boundaries and geographical location but also to study seismicity and the underground structures responsible. Although the well-established and developing seismic networks in Korea and China have provided unprecedented amount and quality of seismic data, high quality catalog is limited to the recent 10s of years, which is far from major earthquake cycle. It is also noticed the earthquake catalog from either country is biased to its own and cannot provide complete picture of seismicity in the Yellow Sea. In order to understand seismic hazard and tectonics in the Yellow Sea, a composite earthquake catalog has been developed. We gathered earthquake information during last 5,000 years from various sources. There are good reasons to believe that some listings account for same earthquake, but in different source parameters. We established criteria in order to provide consistent

  7. Earthquakes

    MedlinePlus

    ... Search Term(s): Main Content Home Be Informed Earthquakes Earthquakes An earthquake is the sudden, rapid shaking of the earth, ... by the breaking and shifting of underground rock. Earthquakes can cause buildings to collapse and cause heavy ...

  8. Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Using a Systems Analysis Approach to Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Legg, M.; Eguchi, R. T.

    2015-12-01

    The earthquake hazard mitigation goal is to reduce losses due to severe natural events. The first step is to conduct a Seismic Risk Assessment consisting of 1) hazard estimation, 2) vulnerability analysis, 3) exposure compilation. Seismic hazards include ground deformation, shaking, and inundation. The hazard estimation may be probabilistic or deterministic. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is generally applied to site-specific Risk assessments, but may involve large areas as in a National Seismic Hazard Mapping program. Deterministic hazard assessments are needed for geographically distributed exposure such as lifelines (infrastructure), but may be important for large communities. Vulnerability evaluation includes quantification of fragility for construction or components including personnel. Exposure represents the existing or planned construction, facilities, infrastructure, and population in the affected area. Risk (expected loss) is the product of the quantified hazard, vulnerability (damage algorithm), and exposure which may be used to prepare emergency response plans, retrofit existing construction, or use community planning to avoid hazards. The risk estimate provides data needed to acquire earthquake insurance to assist with effective recovery following a severe event. Earthquake Scenarios used in Deterministic Risk Assessments provide detailed information on where hazards may be most severe, what system components are most susceptible to failure, and to evaluate the combined effects of a severe earthquake to the whole system or community. Casualties (injuries and death) have been the primary factor in defining building codes for seismic-resistant construction. Economic losses may be equally significant factors that can influence proactive hazard mitigation. Large urban earthquakes may produce catastrophic losses due to a cascading of effects often missed in PSHA. Economic collapse may ensue if damaged workplaces, disruption of utilities, and

  9. Updated earthquake catalogue for seismic hazard analysis in Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, Sarfraz; Waseem, Muhammad; Khan, Muhammad Asif; Ahmed, Waqas

    2018-03-01

    A reliable and homogenized earthquake catalogue is essential for seismic hazard assessment in any area. This article describes the compilation and processing of an updated earthquake catalogue for Pakistan. The earthquake catalogue compiled in this study for the region (quadrangle bounded by the geographical limits 40-83° N and 20-40° E) includes 36,563 earthquake events, which are reported as 4.0-8.3 moment magnitude (M W) and span from 25 AD to 2016. Relationships are developed between the moment magnitude and body, and surface wave magnitude scales to unify the catalogue in terms of magnitude M W. The catalogue includes earthquakes from Pakistan and neighbouring countries to minimize the effects of geopolitical boundaries in seismic hazard assessment studies. Earthquakes reported by local and international agencies as well as individual catalogues are included. The proposed catalogue is further used to obtain magnitude of completeness after removal of dependent events by using four different algorithms. Finally, seismicity parameters of the seismic sources are reported, and recommendations are made for seismic hazard assessment studies in Pakistan.

  10. Harnessing the Collective Power of Eyewitnesses for Improved Earthquake Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bossu, R.; Lefebvre, S.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Steed, R.

    2013-12-01

    earthquakes within, as an average 90s of their occurrence, and can map, in certain cases, the damaged areas. Thanks to the flashsourced and crowdsourced information, we developed an innovative Twitter earthquake information service (currently under test and to be open by November) which intends to offer notifications for earthquakes that matter for the public only. It provides timely information for felt and damaging earthquakes regardless their magnitude and heads-up for seismologists. In conclusion, the experience developed at the EMSC demonstrates the benefit of involving eyewitnesses in earthquake surveillance. The data collected directly and indirectly from eyewitnesses complement information derived from monitoring networks and contribute to improved services. By increasing interaction between science and society, it opens new opportunities for raising awareness on seismic hazard.

  11. USGS Training in Afghanistan: Modern Earthquake Hazards Assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medlin, J. D.; Garthwaite, M.; Holzer, T.; McGarr, A.; Bohannon, R.; Bergen, K.; Vincent, T.

    2007-05-01

    Afghanistan is located in a tectonically active region where ongoing deformation has generated rugged mountainous terrain, and where large earthquakes occur frequently. These earthquakes can present a significant hazard, not only from strong ground shaking, but also from liquefaction and extensive land sliding. The magnitude 6.1 earthquake of March 25, 2002 highlighted the vulnerability of Afghanistan to such hazards, and resulted in over 1000 fatalities. The USGS has provided the first of a series of Earth Science training courses to the Afghan Geological Survey (AGS). This course was concerned with modern earthquake hazard assessments, and is an integral part of a larger USGS effort to provide a comprehensive seismic-hazard assessment for Afghanistan. Funding for these courses is provided by the US Agency for International Development Afghanistan Reconstruction Program. The particular focus of this training course, held December 2-6, 2006 in Kabul, was on providing a background in the seismological and geological methods relevant to preparing for future earthquakes. Topics included identifying active faults, modern tectonic theory, geotechnical measurements of near-surface materials, and strong-motion seismology. With this background, participants may now be expected to educate other members of the community and be actively involved in earthquake hazard assessments themselves. The December, 2006, training course was taught by four lecturers, with all lectures and slides being presented in English and translated into Dari. Copies of the lectures were provided to the students in both hardcopy and digital formats. Class participants included many of the section leaders from within the AGS who have backgrounds in geology, geophysics, and engineering. Two additional training sessions are planned for 2007, the first entitled "Modern Concepts in Geology and Mineral Resource Assessments," and the second entitled "Applied Geophysics for Mineral Resource Assessments."

  12. Central US earthquake catalog for hazard maps of Memphis, Tennessee

    Wheeler, R.L.; Mueller, C.S.

    2001-01-01

    An updated version of the catalog that was used for the current national probabilistic seismic-hazard maps would suffice for production of large-scale hazard maps of the Memphis urban area. Deaggregation maps provide guidance as to the area that a catalog for calculating Memphis hazard should cover. For the future, the Nuttli and local network catalogs could be examined for earthquakes not presently included in the catalog. Additional work on aftershock removal might reduce hazard uncertainty. Graphs of decadal and annual earthquake rates suggest completeness at and above magnitude 3 for the last three or four decades. Any additional work on completeness should consider the effects of rapid, local population changes during the Nation's westward expansion. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Deviant Earthquakes: Data-driven Constraints on the Variability in Earthquake Source Properties and Seismic Hazard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trugman, Daniel Taylor

    The complexity of the earthquake rupture process makes earthquakes inherently unpredictable. Seismic hazard forecasts often presume that the rate of earthquake occurrence can be adequately modeled as a space-time homogenenous or stationary Poisson process and that the relation between the dynamical source properties of small and large earthquakes obey self-similar scaling relations. While these simplified models provide useful approximations and encapsulate the first-order statistical features of the historical seismic record, they are inconsistent with the complexity underlying earthquake occurrence and can lead to misleading assessments of seismic hazard when applied in practice. The six principle chapters of this thesis explore the extent to which the behavior of real earthquakes deviates from these simplified models, and the implications that the observed deviations have for our understanding of earthquake rupture processes and seismic hazard. Chapter 1 provides a brief thematic overview and introduction to the scope of this thesis. Chapter 2 examines the complexity of the 2010 M7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake, focusing on the relation between its unexpected and unprecedented occurrence and anthropogenic stresses from the nearby Cerro Prieto Geothermal Field. Chapter 3 compares long-term changes in seismicity within California's three largest geothermal fields in an effort to characterize the relative influence of natural and anthropogenic stress transients on local seismic hazard. Chapter 4 describes a hybrid, hierarchical clustering algorithm that can be used to relocate earthquakes using waveform cross-correlation, and applies the new algorithm to study the spatiotemporal evolution of two recent seismic swarms in western Nevada. Chapter 5 describes a new spectral decomposition technique that can be used to analyze the dynamic source properties of large datasets of earthquakes, and applies this approach to revisit the question of self-similar scaling of

  14. Earthquake Hazard Analysis Use Vs30 Data In Palu

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rusydi, Muhammad; Efendi, Rustan; Sandra; Rahmawati

    2018-03-01

    Palu City is an area passed by Palu-Koro fault and some small faults around it, causing the Palu of city often hit by earthquake. Therefore, this study is intended to mapped the earthquake hazard zones. Determination of this zone is one of aspect that can be used to reducing risk of earthquake disaster. This research was conducted by integrating Vs30 data from USGS with Vs30 from mikrotremor data. Vs30 data from microtremor used to correction Vs30 from USGS. This Results are then used to determine PeakGround Acceleration (PGA) can be used to calculate the impact of earthquake disaster. Results of the study shows that Palu City is in high danger class. Eight sub-districts in Palu City, there are 7 sub-districts that have high danger level, namely Palu Barat, PaluTimur, Palu Selatan, Palu Utara, Tatanga, Mantikulore and Tawaeli.

  15. Earthquake Hazard and the Environmental Seismic Intensity (ESI) Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serva, Leonello; Vittori, Eutizio; Comerci, Valerio; Esposito, Eliana; Guerrieri, Luca; Michetti, Alessandro Maria; Mohammadioun, Bagher; Mohammadioun, Georgianna C.; Porfido, Sabina; Tatevossian, Ruben E.

    2016-05-01

    The main objective of this paper was to introduce the Environmental Seismic Intensity scale (ESI), a new scale developed and tested by an interdisciplinary group of scientists (geologists, geophysicists and seismologists) in the frame of the International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA) activities, to the widest community of earth scientists and engineers dealing with seismic hazard assessment. This scale defines earthquake intensity by taking into consideration the occurrence, size and areal distribution of earthquake environmental effects (EEE), including surface faulting, tectonic uplift and subsidence, landslides, rock falls, liquefaction, ground collapse and tsunami waves. Indeed, EEEs can significantly improve the evaluation of seismic intensity, which still remains a critical parameter for a realistic seismic hazard assessment, allowing to compare historical and modern earthquakes. Moreover, as shown by recent moderate to large earthquakes, geological effects often cause severe damage"; therefore, their consideration in the earthquake risk scenario is crucial for all stakeholders, especially urban planners, geotechnical and structural engineers, hazard analysts, civil protection agencies and insurance companies. The paper describes background and construction principles of the scale and presents some case studies in different continents and tectonic settings to illustrate its relevant benefits. ESI is normally used together with traditional intensity scales, which, unfortunately, tend to saturate in the highest degrees. In this case and in unpopulated areas, ESI offers a unique way for assessing a reliable earthquake intensity. Finally, yet importantly, the ESI scale also provides a very convenient guideline for the survey of EEEs in earthquake-stricken areas, ensuring they are catalogued in a complete and homogeneous manner.

  16. St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project - A Progress Report-November 2008

    Karadeniz, D.; Rogers, J.D.; Williams, R.A.; Cramer, C.H.; Bauer, R.A.; Hoffman, D.; Chung, J.; Hempen, G.L.; Steckel, P.H.; Boyd, O.L.; Watkins, C.M.; McCallister, N.S.; Schweig, E.

    2009-01-01

    St. Louis has experienced minor earthquake damage at least 12 times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and its proximity to known active earthquake zones, the St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project (SLAEHMP) is producing digital maps that show variability of earthquake hazards, including liquefaction and ground shaking, in the St. Louis area. The maps will be available free via the internet. Although not site specific enough to indicate the hazard at a house-by-house resolution, they can be customized by the user to show specific areas of interest, such as neighborhoods or transportation routes. Earthquakes currently cannot be predicted, but scientists can estimate how strongly the ground is likely to shake as the result of an earthquake. Earthquake hazard maps provide one way of conveying such estimates. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), which produces earthquake hazard maps for the Nation, is working with local partners to develop detailed maps for urban areas vulnerable to strong ground shaking. These partners, which along with the USGS comprise the SLAEHMP, include the Missouri University of Science and Technology-Rolla (Missouri S&T), Missouri Department of Natural Resources (MDNR), Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS), Saint Louis University, Missouri State Emergency Management Agency, and URS Corporation. Preliminary hazard maps covering a test portion of the 29-quadrangle St. Louis study area have been produced and are currently being evaluated by the SLAEHMP. A USGS Fact Sheet summarizing this project was produced and almost 1000 copies have been distributed at several public outreach meetings and field trips that have featured the SLAEHMP (Williams and others, 2007). In addition, a USGS website focusing on the SLAEHMP, which provides links to project results and relevant earthquake hazard information, can be found at: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/ceus/urban_map/st_louis/index.php. This progress report summarizes the

  17. Increased Earthquake Rates in the Central and Eastern US Portend Higher Earthquake Hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Llenos, A. L.; Rubinstein, J. L.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Mueller, C. S.; Michael, A. J.; McGarr, A.; Petersen, M. D.; Weingarten, M.; Holland, A. A.

    2014-12-01

    Since 2009 the central and eastern United States has experienced an unprecedented increase in the rate of M≥3 earthquakes that is unlikely to be due to natural variation. Where the rates have increased so has the seismic hazard, making it important to understand these changes. Areas with significant seismicity increases are limited to areas where oil and gas production take place. By far the largest contributor to the seismicity increase is Oklahoma, where recent studies suggest that these rate changes may be due to fluid injection (e.g., Keranen et al., Geology, 2013; Science, 2014). Moreover, the area of increased seismicity in northern Oklahoma that began in 2013 coincides with the Mississippi Lime play, where well completions greatly increased the year before the seismicity increase. This suggests a link to oil and gas production either directly or from the disposal of significant amounts of produced water within the play. For the purpose of assessing the hazard due to these earthquakes, should they be treated differently from natural earthquakes? Previous studies suggest that induced seismicity may differ from natural seismicity in clustering characteristics or frequency-magnitude distributions (e.g., Bachmann et al., GJI, 2011; Llenos and Michael, BSSA, 2013). These differences could affect time-independent hazard computations, which typically assume that clustering and size distribution remain constant. In Oklahoma, as well as other areas of suspected induced seismicity, we find that earthquakes since 2009 tend to be considerably more clustered in space and time than before 2009. However differences between various regional and national catalogs leave unclear whether there are significant changes in magnitude distribution. Whether they are due to natural or industrial causes, the increased earthquake rates in these areas could increase the hazard in ways that are not accounted for in current hazard assessment practice. Clearly the possibility of induced

  18. Insights into earthquake hazard map performance from shaking history simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stein, S.; Vanneste, K.; Camelbeeck, T.; Vleminckx, B.

    2017-12-01

    Why recent large earthquakes caused shaking stronger than predicted by earthquake hazard maps is under debate. This issue has two parts. Verification involves how well maps implement probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) ("have we built the map right?"). Validation asks how well maps forecast shaking ("have we built the right map?"). We explore how well a map can ideally perform by simulating an area's shaking history and comparing "observed" shaking to that predicted by a map generated for the same parameters. The simulations yield shaking distributions whose mean is consistent with the map, but individual shaking histories show large scatter. Infrequent large earthquakes cause shaking much stronger than mapped, as observed. Hence, PSHA seems internally consistent and can be regarded as verified. Validation is harder because an earthquake history can yield shaking higher or lower than that predicted while being consistent with the hazard map. The scatter decreases for longer observation times because the largest earthquakes and resulting shaking are increasingly likely to have occurred. For the same reason, scatter is much less for the more active plate boundary than for a continental interior. For a continental interior, where the mapped hazard is low, even an M4 event produces exceedances at some sites. Larger earthquakes produce exceedances at more sites. Thus many exceedances result from small earthquakes, but infrequent large ones may cause very large exceedances. However, for a plate boundary, an M6 event produces exceedance at only a few sites, and an M7 produces them in a larger, but still relatively small, portion of the study area. As reality gives only one history, and a real map involves assumptions about more complicated source geometries and occurrence rates, which are unlikely to be exactly correct and thus will contribute additional scatter, it is hard to assess whether misfit between actual shaking and a map — notably higher

  19. Up-to-date Probabilistic Earthquake Hazard Maps for Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaber, Hanan; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Badawy, Ahmed

    2018-04-01

    An up-to-date earthquake hazard analysis has been performed in Egypt using a probabilistic seismic hazard approach. Through the current study, we use a complete and homogenous earthquake catalog covering the time period between 2200 BC and 2015 AD. Three seismotectonic models representing the seismic activity in and around Egypt are used. A logic-tree framework is applied to allow for the epistemic uncertainty in the declustering parameters, minimum magnitude, seismotectonic setting and ground-motion prediction equations. The hazard analysis is performed for a grid of 0.5° × 0.5° in terms of types of rock site for the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at 0.2-, 0.5-, 1.0- and 2.0-s periods. The hazard is estimated for three return periods (72, 475 and 2475 years) corresponding to 50, 10 and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The uniform hazard spectra for the cities of Cairo, Alexandria, Aswan and Nuwbia are constructed. The hazard maps show that the highest ground acceleration values are expected in the northeastern part of Egypt around the Gulf of Aqaba (PGA up to 0.4 g for return period 475 years) and in south Egypt around the city of Aswan (PGA up to 0.2 g for return period 475 years). The Western Desert of Egypt is characterized by the lowest level of hazard (PGA lower than 0.1 g for return period 475 years).

  20. Are seismic hazard assessment errors and earthquake surprises unavoidable?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir

    2013-04-01

    Why earthquake occurrences bring us so many surprises? The answer seems evident if we review the relationships that are commonly used to assess seismic hazard. The time-span of physically reliable Seismic History is yet a small portion of a rupture recurrence cycle at an earthquake-prone site, which makes premature any kind of reliable probabilistic statements about narrowly localized seismic hazard. Moreover, seismic evidences accumulated to-date demonstrate clearly that most of the empirical relations commonly accepted in the early history of instrumental seismology can be proved erroneous when testing statistical significance is applied. Seismic events, including mega-earthquakes, cluster displaying behaviors that are far from independent or periodic. Their distribution in space is possibly fractal, definitely, far from uniform even in a single segment of a fault zone. Such a situation contradicts generally accepted assumptions used for analytically tractable or computer simulations and complicates design of reliable methodologies for realistic earthquake hazard assessment, as well as search and definition of precursory behaviors to be used for forecast/prediction purposes. As a result, the conclusions drawn from such simulations and analyses can MISLEAD TO SCIENTIFICALLY GROUNDLESS APPLICATION, which is unwise and extremely dangerous in assessing expected societal risks and losses. For example, a systematic comparison of the GSHAP peak ground acceleration estimates with those related to actual strong earthquakes, unfortunately, discloses gross inadequacy of this "probabilistic" product, which appears UNACCEPTABLE FOR ANY KIND OF RESPONSIBLE SEISMIC RISK EVALUATION AND KNOWLEDGEABLE DISASTER PREVENTION. The self-evident shortcomings and failures of GSHAP appeals to all earthquake scientists and engineers for an urgent revision of the global seismic hazard maps from the first principles including background methodologies involved, such that there becomes: (a) a

  1. Ice Mass Fluctuations and Earthquake Hazard

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sauber, J.

    2006-01-01

    In south central Alaska, tectonic strain rates are high in a region that includes large glaciers undergoing ice wastage over the last 100-150 years [Sauber et al., 2000; Sauber and Molnia, 2004]. In this study we focus on the region referred to as the Yakataga segment of the Pacific-North American plate boundary zone in Alaska. In this region, the Bering and Malaspina glacier ablation zones have average ice elevation decreases from 1-3 meters/year (see summary and references in Molnia, 2005). The elastic response of the solid Earth to this ice mass decrease alone would cause several mm/yr of horizontal motion and uplift rates of up to 10-12 mm/yr. In this same region observed horizontal rates of tectonic deformation range from 10 to 40 mm/yr to the north-northwest and the predicted tectonic uplift rates range from -2 mm/year near the Gulf of Alaska coast to 12mm/year further inland [Savage and Lisowski, 1988; Ma et al, 1990; Sauber et al., 1997, 2000, 2004; Elliot et al., 2005]. The large ice mass changes associated with glacial wastage and surges perturb the tectonic rate of deformation at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. The associated incremental stress change may enhance or inhibit earthquake occurrence. We report recent (seasonal to decadal) ice elevation changes derived from data from NASA's ICESat satellite laser altimeter combined with earlier DEM's as a reference surface to illustrate the characteristics of short-term ice elevation changes [Sauber et al., 2005, Muskett et al., 2005]. Since we are interested in evaluating the effect of ice changes on faulting potential, we calculated the predicted surface displacement changes and incremental stresses over a specified time interval and calculated the change in the fault stability margin using the approach given by Wu and Hasegawa [1996]. Additionally, we explored the possibility that these ice mass fluctuations altered the seismic rate of background seismicity. Although we primarily focus on

  2. Considering potential seismic sources in earthquake hazard assessment for Northern Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdollahzadeh, Gholamreza; Sazjini, Mohammad; Shahaky, Mohsen; Tajrishi, Fatemeh Zahedi; Khanmohammadi, Leila

    2014-07-01

    Located on the Alpine-Himalayan earthquake belt, Iran is one of the seismically active regions of the world. Northern Iran, south of Caspian Basin, a hazardous subduction zone, is a densely populated and developing area of the country. Historical and instrumental documented seismicity indicates the occurrence of severe earthquakes leading to many deaths and large losses in the region. With growth of seismological and tectonic data, updated seismic hazard assessment is a worthwhile issue in emergency management programs and long-term developing plans in urban and rural areas of this region. In the present study, being armed with up-to-date information required for seismic hazard assessment including geological data and active tectonic setting for thorough investigation of the active and potential seismogenic sources, and historical and instrumental events for compiling the earthquake catalogue, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is carried out for the region using three recent ground motion prediction equations. The logic tree method is utilized to capture epistemic uncertainty of the seismic hazard assessment in delineation of the seismic sources and selection of attenuation relations. The results are compared to a recent practice in code-prescribed seismic hazard of the region and are discussed in detail to explore their variation in each branch of logic tree approach. Also, seismic hazard maps of peak ground acceleration in rock site for 475- and 2,475-year return periods are provided for the region.

  3. Real Time Earthquake Information System in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doi, K.; Kato, T.

    2003-12-01

    An early earthquake notification system in Japan had been developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as a governmental organization responsible for issuing earthquake information and tsunami forecasts. The system was primarily developed for prompt provision of a tsunami forecast to the public with locating an earthquake and estimating its magnitude as quickly as possible. Years after, a system for a prompt provision of seismic intensity information as indices of degrees of disasters caused by strong ground motion was also developed so that concerned governmental organizations can decide whether it was necessary for them to launch emergency response or not. At present, JMA issues the following kinds of information successively when a large earthquake occurs. 1) Prompt report of occurrence of a large earthquake and major seismic intensities caused by the earthquake in about two minutes after the earthquake occurrence. 2) Tsunami forecast in around three minutes. 3) Information on expected arrival times and maximum heights of tsunami waves in around five minutes. 4) Information on a hypocenter and a magnitude of the earthquake, the seismic intensity at each observation station, the times of high tides in addition to the expected tsunami arrival times in 5-7 minutes. To issue information above, JMA has established; - An advanced nationwide seismic network with about 180 stations for seismic wave observation and about 3,400 stations for instrumental seismic intensity observation including about 2,800 seismic intensity stations maintained by local governments, - Data telemetry networks via landlines and partly via a satellite communication link, - Real-time data processing techniques, for example, the automatic calculation of earthquake location and magnitude, the database driven method for quantitative tsunami estimation, and - Dissemination networks, via computer-to-computer communications and facsimile through dedicated telephone lines. JMA operationally

  4. Awareness and understanding of earthquake hazards at school

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saraò, Angela; Peruzza, Laura; Barnaba, Carla; Bragato, Pier Luigi

    2014-05-01

    Schools have a fundamental role in broadening the understanding of natural hazard and risks and in building the awareness in the community. Recent earthquakes in Italy and worldwide, have clearly demonstrated that the poor perception of seismic hazards diminishes the effectiveness of mitigation countermeasures. Since years the Seismology's department of OGS is involved in education projects and public activities to raise awareness about earthquakes. Working together with teachers we aim at developing age-appropriate curricula to improve the student's knowledge about earthquakes, seismic safety, and seismic risk reduction. Some examples of education activities we performed during the last years are here presented. We show our experience with the primary and intermediate schools where, through hands-on activities, we explain the earthquake phenomenon and its effects to kids, but we illustrate also some teaching interventions for high school students. During the past years we lectured classes, we led laboratory and field activities, and we organized summer stages for selected students. In the current year we are leading a project aimed at training high school students on seismic safety through a multidisciplinary approach that involves seismologists, engineers and experts of safety procedures. To combine the objective of dissemination of earthquake culture, also through the knowledge of the past seismicity, with that of a safety culture, we use innovative educational techniques and multimedia resources. Students and teachers, under the guidance of an expert seismologist, organize a combination of hands-on activities for understanding earthquakes in the lab through cheap tools and instrumentations At selected schools we provided the low cost seismometers of the QuakeCatcher network (http://qcn.stanford.edu) for recording earthquakes, and we trained teachers to use such instruments in the lab and to analyze recorded data. Within the same project we are going to train

  5. Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: Altai-Sayan Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, V. G.; Nekrasova, A.

    2017-12-01

    We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on morphostructural analysis, pattern recognition, and the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes, USLE, which generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship making use of naturally fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size in a seismic region. The USLE stands for an empirical relationship log10N(M, L) = A + B·(5 - M) + C·log10L, where N(M, L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L. We use parameters A, B, and C of USLE to estimate, first, the expected maximum credible magnitude in a time interval at seismically prone nodes of the morphostructural scheme of the region under study, then map the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters (e.g. peak ground acceleration, PGA, or macro-seismic intensity etc.). After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (usually, the observed instrumental PGA or the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures (e.g., those based on census of population, buildings inventory, etc.). This, USLE based, methodology of seismic hazard and risks assessment is applied to the territory of Altai-Sayan Region, of Russia. The study supported by the Russian Science Foundation Grant No. 15-17-30020.

  6. Earthquake hazard and risk assessment based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: Greater Caucasus and Crimea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir G.; Nekrasova, Anastasia K.

    2018-05-01

    We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on morphostructural analysis, pattern recognition, and the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), which generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship making use of naturally fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size in a seismic region. The USLE stands for an empirical relationship log10 N(M, L) = A + B·(5 - M) + C·log10 L, where N(M, L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within a seismically prone area of linear dimension L. We use parameters A, B, and C of USLE to estimate, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at seismically prone nodes of the morphostructural scheme of the region under study, then map the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, PGA, or macro-seismic intensity). After a rigorous verification against the available seismic evidences in the past (usually, the observed instrumental PGA or the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures (e.g., those based on census of population, buildings inventory). The methodology of seismic hazard and risk assessment is illustrated by application to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea.

  7. Hazard Assessment and Early Warning of Tsunamis: Lessons from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satake, K.

    2012-12-01

    The March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake (M 9.0) was the largest earthquake in Japanese history, and was the best recorded subduction-zone earthquakes in the world. In particular, various offshore geophysical observations revealed large horizontal and vertical seafloor movements, and the tsunami was recorded on high-quality, high-sampling gauges. Analysis of such tsunami waveforms shows a temporal and spatial slip distribution during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The fault rupture started near the hypocenter and propagated into both deep and shallow parts of the plate interface. Very large, ~25 m, slip off Miyagi on the deep part of plate interface corresponds to an interplate earthquake of M 8.8, the location and size similar to 869 Jogan earthquake model, and was responsible for the large tsunami inundation in Sendai and Ishinomaki plains. Huge slip, more than 50 m, occurred on the shallow part near the trench axis ~3 min after the earthquake origin time. This delayed shallow rupture (M 8.8) was similar to the 1896 "tsunami earthquake," and was responsible for the large tsunami on the northern Sanriku coast, measured at ~100 km north of the largest slip. Thus the Tohoku earthquake can be decomposed into an interplate earthquake and the triggered "tsunami earthquake." The Japan Meteorological Agency issued tsunami warning 3 minutes after the earthquake, and saved many lives. However, their initial estimation of tsunami height was underestimated, because the earthquake magnitude was initially estimated as M 7.9, hence the computed tsunami heights were lower. The JMA attempts to improve the tsunami warning system, including technical developments to estimate the earthquake size in a few minutes by using various and redundant information, to deploy and utilize the offshore tsunami observations, and to issue a warning based on the worst case scenario if a possibility of giant earthquake exists. Predicting a trigger of another large earthquake would still be a challenge

  8. History of Modern Earthquake Hazard Mapping and Assessment in California Using a Deterministic or Scenario Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mualchin, Lalliana

    2011-03-01

    Modern earthquake ground motion hazard mapping in California began following the 1971 San Fernando earthquake in the Los Angeles metropolitan area of southern California. Earthquake hazard assessment followed a traditional approach, later called Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) in order to distinguish it from the newer Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). In DSHA, seismic hazard in the event of the Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) magnitude from each of the known seismogenic faults within and near the state are assessed. The likely occurrence of the MCE has been assumed qualitatively by using late Quaternary and younger faults that are presumed to be seismogenic, but not when or within what time intervals MCE may occur. MCE is the largest or upper-bound potential earthquake in moment magnitude, and it supersedes and automatically considers all other possible earthquakes on that fault. That moment magnitude is used for estimating ground motions by applying it to empirical attenuation relationships, and for calculating ground motions as in neo-DSHA (Z uccolo et al., 2008). The first deterministic California earthquake hazard map was published in 1974 by the California Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) which has been called the California Geological Survey (CGS) since 2002, using the best available fault information and ground motion attenuation relationships at that time. The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) later assumed responsibility for printing the refined and updated peak acceleration contour maps which were heavily utilized by geologists, seismologists, and engineers for many years. Some engineers involved in the siting process of large important projects, for example, dams and nuclear power plants, continued to challenge the map(s). The second edition map was completed in 1985 incorporating more faults, improving MCE's estimation method, and using new ground motion attenuation relationships from the latest published

  9. 2017 One‐year seismic‐hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes

    Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Shumway, Allison; McNamara, Daniel E.; Williams, Robert; Llenos, Andrea L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

    2017-01-01

    We produce a one‐year 2017 seismic‐hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes that updates the 2016 one‐year forecast; this map is intended to provide information to the public and to facilitate the development of induced seismicity forecasting models, methods, and data. The 2017 hazard model applies the same methodology and input logic tree as the 2016 forecast, but with an updated earthquake catalog. We also evaluate the 2016 seismic‐hazard forecast to improve future assessments. The 2016 forecast indicated high seismic hazard (greater than 1% probability of potentially damaging ground shaking in one year) in five focus areas: Oklahoma–Kansas, the Raton basin (Colorado/New Mexico border), north Texas, north Arkansas, and the New Madrid Seismic Zone. During 2016, several damaging induced earthquakes occurred in Oklahoma within the highest hazard region of the 2016 forecast; all of the 21 moment magnitude (M) ≥4 and 3 M≥5 earthquakes occurred within the highest hazard area in the 2016 forecast. Outside the Oklahoma–Kansas focus area, two earthquakes with M≥4 occurred near Trinidad, Colorado (in the Raton basin focus area), but no earthquakes with M≥2.7 were observed in the north Texas or north Arkansas focus areas. Several observations of damaging ground‐shaking levels were also recorded in the highest hazard region of Oklahoma. The 2017 forecasted seismic rates are lower in regions of induced activity due to lower rates of earthquakes in 2016 compared with 2015, which may be related to decreased wastewater injection caused by regulatory actions or by a decrease in unconventional oil and gas production. Nevertheless, the 2017 forecasted hazard is still significantly elevated in Oklahoma compared to the hazard calculated from seismicity before 2009.

  10. Citizen Seismology Provides Insights into Ground Motions and Hazard from Injection-Induced Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hough, S. E.

    2014-12-01

    The US Geological Survey "Did You Feel It?" (DYFI) system is a highly successful example of citizen seismology. Users around the world now routinely report felt earthquakes via the Web; this information is used to determine Community Decimal Intensity values. These data can be enormously valuable for helping address a key issue that has arisen recently: quantifying the shaking/hazard associated with injection-induced earthquakes. I consider the shaking from 11 moderate (Mw3.9-5.7) earthquakes in the central and eastern United States that are believed to be induced by fluid injection. The distance decay of intensities for all events is consistent with that observed for regional tectonic earthquakes, but for all of the events intensities are lower than values predicted from an intensity prediction equation derived using data from tectonic events. I introduce an effective intensity magnitude, MIE, defined as the magnitude that on average would generate a given intensity distribution. For all 11 events, MIE is lower than the event magnitude by 0.4-1.3 units, with an average difference of 0.8 units. This suggests that stress drops of injection-induced earthquakes are lower than tectonic earthquakes by a factor of 2-10. However, relatively limited data suggest that intensities for epicentral distances less than 10 km are more commensurate with expectations for the event magnitude, which can be explained by the shallow focal depth of the events. The results suggest that damage from injection-induced earthquakes will be especially concentrated in the immediate epicentral region. These results further suggest a potential new discriminant for the identification of induced events. For ecample, while systematic analysis of California earthquakes remains to be done, DYFI data from the 2014 Mw5.1 La Habra, California, earthquake reveal no evidence for unusually low intensities, adding to a growing volume of evidence that this was a natural tectonic event.

  11. Volcano and earthquake hazards in the Crater Lake region, Oregon

    Bacon, Charles R.; Mastin, Larry G.; Scott, Kevin M.; Nathenson, Manuel

    1997-01-01

    Crater Lake lies in a basin, or caldera, formed by collapse of the Cascade volcano known as Mount Mazama during a violent, climactic eruption about 7,700 years ago. This event dramatically changed the character of the volcano so that many potential types of future events have no precedent there. This potentially active volcanic center is contained within Crater Lake National Park, visited by 500,000 people per year, and is adjacent to the main transportation corridor east of the Cascade Range. Because a lake is now present within the most likely site of future volcanic activity, many of the hazards at Crater Lake are different from those at most other Cascade volcanoes. Also significant are many faults near Crater Lake that clearly have been active in the recent past. These faults, and historic seismicity, indicate that damaging earthquakes can occur there in the future. This report describes the various types of volcano and earthquake hazards in the Crater Lake area, estimates of the likelihood of future events, recommendations for mitigation, and a map of hazard zones. The main conclusions are summarized below.

  12. A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources

    Davies, Gareth; Griffin, Jonathan; Lovholt, Finn; Glimsdal, Sylfest; Harbitz, Carl; Thio, Hong Kie; Lorito, Stefano; Basili, Roberto; Selva, Jacopo; Geist, Eric L.; Baptista, Maria Ana

    2017-01-01

    Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.

  13. Perspectives on earthquake hazards in the New Madrid seismic zone, Missouri

    SciT

    Thenhaus, P.C.

    1990-01-01

    A sequence of three great earthquakes struck the Central United States during the winter of 1811-12 in the area of New Madrid, Missouri. They are considered to be the greatest earthquakes in the conterminous U.S. because they were felt and caused damage at far greater distances than any other earthquakes in US history. In contrast to California, where earthquakes are felt frequently, the damaging earthquakes that have occurred in the Eastern US are generally regarded as only historical phenomena. A fundamental problem in the Eastern US, therefore, is that the earthquake hazard is not generally considered today in land-use andmore » civic planning. This article offers perspectives on the earthquake hazard of the New Madrid seismic zone through discussions of the geology of the Mississippi Embayment, the historical earthquakes that have occurred there, the earthquake risk, and the tools that geoscientists have to study the region. The so-called earthquake hazard is defined by the characterization of the physical attributes of the geological structures that cause earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, their potential size, and the expected ground motions. The term earthquake risk, on the other hand, refers to aspects of the expected damage to manmade structures and to lifelines as a result of the earthquake hazard.« less

  14. Initiation process of earthquakes and its implications for seismic hazard reduction strategy.

    PubMed Central

    Kanamori, H

    1996-01-01

    For the average citizen and the public, "earthquake prediction" means "short-term prediction," a prediction of a specific earthquake on a relatively short time scale. Such prediction must specify the time, place, and magnitude of the earthquake in question with sufficiently high reliability. For this type of prediction, one must rely on some short-term precursors. Examinations of strain changes just before large earthquakes suggest that consistent detection of such precursory strain changes cannot be expected. Other precursory phenomena such as foreshocks and nonseismological anomalies do not occur consistently either. Thus, reliable short-term prediction would be very difficult. Although short-term predictions with large uncertainties could be useful for some areas if their social and economic environments can tolerate false alarms, such predictions would be impractical for most modern industrialized cities. A strategy for effective seismic hazard reduction is to take full advantage of the recent technical advancements in seismology, computers, and communication. In highly industrialized communities, rapid earthquake information is critically important for emergency services agencies, utilities, communications, financial companies, and media to make quick reports and damage estimates and to determine where emergency response is most needed. Long-term forecast, or prognosis, of earthquakes is important for development of realistic building codes, retrofitting existing structures, and land-use planning, but the distinction between short-term and long-term predictions needs to be clearly communicated to the public to avoid misunderstanding. Images Fig. 8 PMID:11607657

  15. Initiation process of earthquakes and its implications for seismic hazard reduction strategy.

    PubMed

    Kanamori, H

    1996-04-30

    For the average citizen and the public, "earthquake prediction" means "short-term prediction," a prediction of a specific earthquake on a relatively short time scale. Such prediction must specify the time, place, and magnitude of the earthquake in question with sufficiently high reliability. For this type of prediction, one must rely on some short-term precursors. Examinations of strain changes just before large earthquakes suggest that consistent detection of such precursory strain changes cannot be expected. Other precursory phenomena such as foreshocks and nonseismological anomalies do not occur consistently either. Thus, reliable short-term prediction would be very difficult. Although short-term predictions with large uncertainties could be useful for some areas if their social and economic environments can tolerate false alarms, such predictions would be impractical for most modern industrialized cities. A strategy for effective seismic hazard reduction is to take full advantage of the recent technical advancements in seismology, computers, and communication. In highly industrialized communities, rapid earthquake information is critically important for emergency services agencies, utilities, communications, financial companies, and media to make quick reports and damage estimates and to determine where emergency response is most needed. Long-term forecast, or prognosis, of earthquakes is important for development of realistic building codes, retrofitting existing structures, and land-use planning, but the distinction between short-term and long-term predictions needs to be clearly communicated to the public to avoid misunderstanding.

  16. Earthquakes in Hawai‘i—an underappreciated but serious hazard

    Okubo, Paul G.; Nakata, Jennifer S.

    2011-01-01

    The State of Hawaii has a history of damaging earthquakes. Earthquakes in the State are primarily the result of active volcanism and related geologic processes. It is not a question of "if" a devastating quake will strike Hawai‘i but rather "when." Tsunamis generated by both distant and local quakes are also an associated threat and have caused many deaths in the State. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its cooperators monitor seismic activity in the State and are providing crucial information needed to help better prepare emergency managers and residents of Hawai‘i for the quakes that are certain to strike in the future.

  17. The Pacific Northwest; linkage between earthquake and volcano hazards

    Crosson, R.S.

    1990-01-01

    The Pacific Northwest (Oregon, Washington, and northern California) is experiencing rapid industrial and population growth. The same conditions that make the region attractive- close proximity to both mountains and oceans, volcanoes and spectacular inland waters- also present significant geologic hazards that are easily overlooked in the normal timetable of human activities. The catastrophic eruption of Mount St. Helens 10 years ago serves as a dramatic reminder of the forces of nature that can be unleashed through volcanism. other volcanoes such as  mount Rainier, a majestic symbol of Washington, or Mount hood in Oregon, lie closer to population centers and could present far greater hazards should they become active. Earthquakes may affect even larger regions, prodcuging more cumulative damage. 

  18. Earthquake Hazard Class Mapping by Parcel in Las Vegas Valley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pancha, A.; Pullammanappallil, S.; Louie, J. N.; Hellmer, W. K.

    2011-12-01

    Clark County, Nevada completed the very first effort in the United States to map earthquake hazard class systematically through an entire urban area. The map is used in development and disaster response planning, in addition to its direct use for building code implementation and enforcement. The County contracted with the Nevada System of Higher Education to classify about 500 square miles including urban Las Vegas Valley, and exurban areas considered for future development. The Parcel Map includes over 10,000 surface-wave array measurements accomplished over three years using Optim's SeisOpt° ReMi measurement and processing techniques adapted for large scale data. These array measurements classify individual parcels on the NEHRP hazard scale. Parallel "blind" tests were conducted at 93 randomly selected sites. The rms difference between the Vs30 values yielded by the blind data and analyses and the Parcel Map analyses is 4.92%. Only six of the blind-test sites showed a difference with a magnitude greater than 10%. We describe a "C+" Class for sites with Class B average velocities but soft surface soil. The measured Parcel Map shows a clearly definable C+ to C boundary on the west side of the Valley. The C to D boundary is much more complex. Using the parcel map in computing shaking in the Valley for scenario earthquakes is crucial for obtaining realistic predictions of ground motions.

  19. Perspectives on earthquake hazards in the New Madrid seismic zone, Missouri

    Thenhaus, P.C.

    1990-01-01

    A sequence of three great earthquakes struck the Central United States during the winter of 1811-1812 in the area of New Madrid, Missouri. they are considered to be the greatest earthquakes in the conterminous U.S because they were felt and caused damage at far greater distances than any other earthquakes in U.S history. The large population currently living within the damage area of these earthquakes means that widespread destruction and loss of life is likely if the sequence were repeated. In contrast to California, where the earthquakes are felt frequently, the damaging earthquakes that have occurred in the Easter U.S-in 155 (Cape Ann, Mass.), 1811-12 (New Madrid, Mo.), 1886 (Charleston S.C) ,and 1897 (Giles County, Va.- are generally regarded as only historical phenomena (fig. 1). The social memory of these earthquakes no longer exists. A fundamental problem in the Eastern U.S, therefore, is that the earthquake hazard is not generally considered today in land-use and civic planning. This article offers perspectives on the earthquake hazard of the New Madrid seismic zone through discussions of the geology of the Mississippi Embayment, the historical earthquakes that have occurred there, the earthquake risk, and the "tools" that geoscientists have to study the region. The so-called earthquake hazard is defined  by the characterization of the physical attributes of the geological structures that cause earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, their potential size, and the expected ground motions. the term "earthquake risk," on the other hand, refers to aspects of the expected damage to manmade strctures and to lifelines as a result of the earthquake hazard.  

  20. Earthquake and tsunami hazard in West Sumatra: integrating science, outreach, and local stakeholder needs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCaughey, J.; Lubis, A. M.; Huang, Z.; Yao, Y.; Hill, E. M.; Eriksson, S.; Sieh, K.

    2012-04-01

    The Earth Observatory of Singapore (EOS) is building partnerships with local to provincial government agencies, NGOs, and educators in West Sumatra to inform their policymaking, disaster-risk-reduction, and education efforts. Geodetic and paleoseismic studies show that an earthquake as large as M 8.8 is likely sometime in the coming decades on the Mentawai patch of the Sunda megathrust. This earthquake and its tsunami would be devastating for the Mentawai Islands and neighboring areas of the western Sumatra coast. The low-lying coastal Sumatran city of Padang (pop. ~800,000) has been the object of many research and outreach efforts, especially since 2004. Padang experienced deadly earthquakes in 2007 and 2009 that, though tragedies in their own right, served also as wake-up calls for a larger earthquake to come. However, there remain significant barriers to linking science to policy: extant hazard information is sometimes contradictory or confusing for non-scientists, while turnover of agency leadership and staff means that, in the words of one local advocate, "we keep having to start from zero." Both better hazard knowledge and major infrastructure changes are necessary for risk reduction in Padang. In contrast, the small, isolated villages on the outlying Mentawai Islands have received relatively fewer outreach efforts, yet many villages have the potential for timely evacuation with existing infrastructure. Therefore, knowledge alone can go far toward risk reduction. The tragic October 2010 Mentawai tsunami has inspired further disaster-risk reduction work by local stakeholders. In both locations, we are engaging policymakers and local NGOs, providing science to help inform their work. Through outreach contacts, the Mentawai government requested that we produce the first-ever tsunami hazard map for their islands; this aligns well with scientific interests at EOS. We will work with the Mentawai government on the presentation and explanation of the hazard map, as

  1. Reducing Vulnerability of Ports and Harbors to Earthquake and Tsunami Hazards

    Wood, Nathan J.; Good, James W.; Goodwin, Robert F.

    2002-01-01

    Recent scientific research suggests the Pacific Northwest could experience catastrophic earthquakes in the near future, both from distant and local sources, posing a significant threat to coastal communities. Damage could result from numerous earthquake-related hazards, such as severe ground shaking, soil liquefaction, landslides, land subsidence/uplift, and tsunami inundation. Because of their geographic location, ports and harbors are especially vulnerable to these hazards. Ports and harbors, however, are important components of many coastal communities, supporting numerous activities critical to the local and regional economy and possibly serving as vital post-event, response-recovery transportation links. A collaborative, multi-year initiative is underway to increase the resiliency of Pacific Northwest ports and harbors to earthquake and tsunami hazards, involving Oregon Sea Grant (OSG), Washington Sea Grant (WSG), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Services Center (CSC), and the U.S. Geological Survey Center for Science Policy (CSP). Specific products of this research, planning, and outreach initiative include a regional stakeholder issues and needs assessment, a community-based mitigation planning process, a Geographic Information System (GIS) — based vulnerability assessment methodology, an educational web-site and a regional data archive. This paper summarizes these efforts, including results of two pilot port-harbor community projects, one in Yaquina Bay, Oregon and the other in Sinclair Inlet, Washington. Finally, plans are outlined for outreach to other port and harbor communities in the Pacific Northwest and beyond, using "getting started" workshops and a web-based tutorial.

  2. Earthquake Hazard and Risk in Sub-Saharan Africa: current status of the Global Earthquake model (GEM) initiative in the region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ayele, Atalay; Midzi, Vunganai; Ateba, Bekoa; Mulabisana, Thifhelimbilu; Marimira, Kwangwari; Hlatywayo, Dumisani J.; Akpan, Ofonime; Amponsah, Paulina; Georges, Tuluka M.; Durrheim, Ray

    2013-04-01

    Large magnitude earthquakes have been observed in Sub-Saharan Africa in the recent past, such as the Machaze event of 2006 (Mw, 7.0) in Mozambique and the 2009 Karonga earthquake (Mw 6.2) in Malawi. The December 13, 1910 earthquake (Ms = 7.3) in the Rukwa rift (Tanzania) is the largest of all instrumentally recorded events known to have occurred in East Africa. The overall earthquake hazard in the region is on the lower side compared to other earthquake prone areas in the globe. However, the risk level is high enough for it to receive attention of the African governments and the donor community. The latest earthquake hazard map for the sub-Saharan Africa was done in 1999 and updating is long overdue as several development activities in the construction industry is booming allover sub-Saharan Africa. To this effect, regional seismologists are working together under the GEM (Global Earthquake Model) framework to improve incomplete, inhomogeneous and uncertain catalogues. The working group is also contributing to the UNESCO-IGCP (SIDA) 601 project and assessing all possible sources of data for the catalogue as well as for the seismotectonic characteristics that will help to develop a reasonable hazard model in the region. In the current progress, it is noted that the region is more seismically active than we thought. This demands the coordinated effort of the regional experts to systematically compile all available information for a better output so as to mitigate earthquake risk in the sub-Saharan Africa.

  3. Seismic hazard assessment and pattern recognition of earthquake prone areas in the Po Plain (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gorshkov, Alexander; Peresan, Antonella; Soloviev, Alexander; Panza, Giuliano F.

    2014-05-01

    A systematic and quantitative assessment, capable of providing first-order consistent information about the sites where large earthquakes may occur, is crucial for the knowledgeable seismic hazard evaluation. The methodology for the pattern recognition of areas prone to large earthquakes is based on the morphostructural zoning method (MSZ), which employs topographic data and present-day tectonic structures for the mapping of earthquake-controlling structures (i.e. the nodes formed around lineaments intersections) and does not require the knowledge about past seismicity. The nodes are assumed to be characterized by a uniform set of topographic, geologic, and geophysical parameters; on the basis of such parameters the pattern recognition algorithm defines a classification rule to discriminate seismogenic and non-seismogenic nodes. This methodology has been successfully applied since the early 1970s in a number of regions worldwide, including California, where it permitted the identification of areas that have been subsequently struck by strong events and that previously were not considered prone to strong earthquakes. Recent studies on the Iberian Peninsula and the Rhone Valley, have demonstrated the applicability of MSZ to flat basins, with a relatively flat topography. In this study, the analysis is applied to the Po Plain (Northern Italy), an area characterized by a flat topography, to allow for the systematic identification of the nodes prone to earthquakes with magnitude larger or equal to M=5.0. The MSZ method differs from the standard morphostructural analysis where the term "lineament" is used to define the complex of alignments detectable on topographic maps or on satellite images. According to that definition the lineament is locally defined and the existence of the lineament does not depend on the surrounding areas. In MSZ, the primary element is the block - a relatively homogeneous area - while the lineament is a secondary element of the morphostructure

  4. Regional liquefaction hazard evaluation following the 2010-2011 Christchurch (New Zealand) earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Begg, John; Brackley, Hannah; Irwin, Marion; Grant, Helen; Berryman, Kelvin; Dellow, Grant; Scott, David; Jones, Katie; Barrell, David; Lee, Julie; Townsend, Dougal; Jacka, Mike; Harwood, Nick; McCahon, Ian; Christensen, Steve

    2013-04-01

    Following the damaging 4 Sept 2010 Mw7.1 Darfield Earthquake, the 22 Feb 2011 Christchurch Earthquake and subsequent damaging aftershocks, we completed a liquefaction hazard evaluation for c. 2700 km2 of the coastal Canterbury region. Its purpose was to distinguish at a regional scale areas of land that, in the event of strong ground shaking, may be susceptible to damaging liquefaction from areas where damaging liquefaction is unlikely. This information will be used by local government for defining liquefaction-related geotechnical investigation requirements for consent applications. Following a review of historic records of liquefaction and existing liquefaction assessment maps, we undertook comprehensive new work that included: a geologic context from existing geologic maps; geomorphic mapping using LiDAR and integrating existing soil map data; compilation of lithological data for the surficial 10 m from an extensive drillhole database; modelling of depth to unconfined groundwater from existing subsurface and surface water data. Integrating and honouring all these sources of information, we mapped areas underlain by materials susceptible to liquefaction (liquefaction-prone lithologies present, or likely, in the near-surface, with shallow unconfined groundwater) from areas unlikely to suffer widespread liquefaction damage. Comparison of this work with more detailed liquefaction susceptibility assessment based on closely spaced geotechnical probes in Christchurch City provides a level of confidence in these results. We tested our susceptibility map by assigning a matrix of liquefaction susceptibility rankings to lithologies recorded in drillhole logs and local groundwater depths, then applying peak ground accelerations for four earthquake scenarios from the regional probabilistic seismic hazard model (25 year return = 0.13g; 100 year return = 0.22g; 500 year return = 0.38g and 2500 year return = 0.6g). Our mapped boundary between liquefaction-prone areas and areas

  5. Rapid field-based landslide hazard assessment in response to post-earthquake emergency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frattini, Paolo; Gambini, Stefano; Cancelliere, Giorgio

    2016-04-01

    On April 25, 2015 a Mw 7.8 earthquake occurred 80 km to the northwest of Kathmandu (Nepal). The largest aftershock, occurred on May 12, 2015, was the Mw 7.3 Nepal earthquake (SE of Zham, China), 80 km to the east of Kathmandu. . The earthquakes killed ~9000 people and severely damaged a 10,000 sqkm region in Nepal and neighboring countries. Several thousands of landslides have been triggered during the event, causing widespread damages to mountain villages and the evacuation of thousands of people. Rasuwa was one of the most damaged districts. This contribution describes landslide hazard analysis of the Saramthali, Yarsa and Bhorle VDCs (122 km2, Rasuwa district). Hazard is expressed in terms of qualitative classes (low, medium, high), through a simple matrix approach that combines frequency classes and magnitude classes. The hazard analysis is based primarily on the experience gained during a field survey conducted in September 2014. During the survey, local knowledge has been systematically exploited through interviews with local people that have experienced the earthquake and the coseismic landslides. People helped us to recognize fractures and active deformations, and allowed to reconstruct a correct chronicle of landslide events, in order to assign the landslide events to the first shock, the second shock, or the post-earthquake 2015 monsoon. The field experience was complemented with a standard analysis of the relationship between potential controlling factors and the distribution of landslides reported in Kargel et al (2016). This analysis allowed recognizing the most important controlling factor. This information was integrated with the field observations to verify the mapped units and to complete the mapping in area not accessible for field activity. Finally, the work was completed with the analysis and the use of a detailed landslide inventory produced by the University of Milano Bicocca that covers most of the area affected by coseismic landslides in

  6. Echo-sounding method aids earthquake hazard studies

    ,

    1995-01-01

    Dramatic examples of catastrophic damage from an earthquake occurred in 1989, when the M 7.1 Lorna Prieta rocked the San Francisco Bay area, and in 1994, when the M 6.6 Northridge earthquake jolted southern California. The surprising amount and distribution of damage to private property and infrastructure emphasizes the importance of seismic-hazard research in urbanized areas, where the potential for damage and loss of life is greatest. During April 1995, a group of scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Tennessee, using an echo-sounding method described below, is collecting data in San Antonio Park, California, to examine the Monte Vista fault which runs through this park. The Monte Vista fault in this vicinity shows evidence of movement within the last 10,000 years or so. The data will give them a "picture" of the subsurface rock deformation near this fault. The data will also be used to help locate a trench that will be dug across the fault by scientists from William Lettis & Associates.

  7. Earthquake induced landslide hazard field observatory in the Avcilar peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bigarre, Pascal; Coccia, Stella; Theoleyre, Fiona; Ergintav, Semih; Özel, Oguz; Yalçinkaya, Esref; Lenti, Luca; Martino, Salvatore; Gamba, Paolo; Zucca, Francesco; Moro, Marco

    2015-04-01

    SAR temporal series has been undertaken, providing global but accurate Identification and characterization of gravitational phenomena covering the aera. Evaluation of the resolution and identification of landslide hazard-related features using space multispectral/hyperspectral image data has been realized. Profit has been gained from a vast drilling and geological - geotechnical survey program undertaken by the Istanbul Metropolitan Area, to get important data to complete the geological model of the landslide as well as one deep borehole to set up permanent instrumentation on a quite large slow landslide, fully encircled by a dense building environment. The selected landslide was instrumented in 2014 with a real-time observational system including GPS, rainfall, piezometer and seismic monitoring. Objective of this permanent monitoring system is three folds: first to detect and quantify interaction between seismic motion, rainfall and mass movement, building a database opened to the scientific community in the future, second to help to calibrate dynamic numerical geomechanical simulations intending to study the sensitivity to seismic loading, and last but not least. Last but not least important geophysical field work has been conducted to assess seismic site effects already noticed during the 1999 earthquake .Data, metadata and main results are from now progressively compiled and formatted for appropriate integration in the cloud monitoring infrastructure for data sharing.

  8. Earthquake risk reduction in the United States: An assessment of selected user needs and recommendations for the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program

    SciT

    NONE

    1994-12-31

    This Assessment was conducted to improve the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) by providing NEHRP agencies with information that supports their user-oriented setting of crosscutting priorities in the NEHRP strategic planning process. The primary objective of this Assessment was to take a ``snapshot`` evaluation of the needs of selected users throughout the major program elements of NEHRP. Secondary objectives were to conduct an assessment of the knowledge that exists (or is being developed by NEHRP) to support earthquake risk reduction, and to begin a process of evaluating how NEHRP is meeting user needs. An identification of NEHRP`s strengths alsomore » resulted from the effort, since those strengths demonstrate successful methods that may be useful to NEHRP in the future. These strengths are identified in the text, and many of them represent important achievements since the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act was passed in 1977.« less

  9. Connecting Hazard Analysts and Risk Managers to Sensor Information

    PubMed Central

    Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Hosford, Steven; Douglas, John; Serrano, Jean-Jacques; Coraboeuf, Damien; Comte, Jérémie

    2008-01-01

    Hazard analysts and risk managers of natural perils, such as earthquakes, landslides and floods, need to access information from sensor networks surveying their regions of interest. However, currently information about these networks is difficult to obtain and is available in varying formats, thereby restricting accesses and consequently possibly leading to decision-making based on limited information. As a response to this issue, state-of-the-art interoperable catalogues are being currently developed within the framework of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) workplan. This article provides an overview of the prototype catalogue that was developed to improve access to information about the sensor networks surveying geological hazards (geohazards), such as earthquakes, landslides and volcanoes. PMID:27879915

  10. Connecting Hazard Analysts and Risk Managers to Sensor Information.

    PubMed

    Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Hosford, Steven; Douglas, John; Serrano, Jean-Jacques; Coraboeuf, Damien; Comte, Jérémie

    2008-06-11

    Hazard analysts and risk managers of natural perils, such as earthquakes, landslides and floods, need to access information from sensor networks surveying their regions of interest. However, currently information about these networks is difficult to obtain and is available in varying formats, thereby restricting accesses and consequently possibly leading to decision-making based on limited information. As a response to this issue, state-of-the-art interoperable catalogues are being currently developed within the framework of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) workplan. This article provides an overview of the prototype catalogue that was developed to improve access to information about the sensor networks surveying geological hazards (geohazards), such as earthquakes, landslides and volcanoes.

  11. Overestimation of the earthquake hazard along the Himalaya: constraints in bracketing of medieval earthquakes from paleoseismic studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arora, Shreya; Malik, Javed N.

    2017-12-01

    The Himalaya is one of the most seismically active regions of the world. The occurrence of several large magnitude earthquakes viz. 1905 Kangra earthquake (Mw 7.8), 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake (Mw 8.2), 1950 Assam earthquake (Mw 8.4), 2005 Kashmir (Mw 7.6), and 2015 Gorkha (Mw 7.8) are the testimony to ongoing tectonic activity. In the last few decades, tremendous efforts have been made along the Himalayan arc to understand the patterns of earthquake occurrences, size, extent, and return periods. Some of the large magnitude earthquakes produced surface rupture, while some remained blind. Furthermore, due to the incompleteness of the earthquake catalogue, a very few events can be correlated with medieval earthquakes. Based on the existing paleoseismic data certainly, there exists a complexity to precisely determine the extent of surface rupture of these earthquakes and also for those events, which occurred during historic times. In this paper, we have compiled the paleo-seismological data and recalibrated the radiocarbon ages from the trenches excavated by previous workers along the entire Himalaya and compared earthquake scenario with the past. Our studies suggest that there were multiple earthquake events with overlapping surface ruptures in small patches with an average rupture length of 300 km limiting Mw 7.8-8.0 for the Himalayan arc, rather than two or three giant earthquakes rupturing the whole front. It has been identified that the large magnitude Himalayan earthquakes, such as 1905 Kangra, 1934 Bihar-Nepal, and 1950 Assam, that have occurred within a time frame of 45 years. Now, if these events are dated, there is a high possibility that within the range of ±50 years, they may be considered as the remnant of one giant earthquake rupturing the entire Himalayan arc. Therefore, leading to an overestimation of seismic hazard scenario in Himalaya.

  12. The Mw 7.7 Bhuj earthquake: Global lessons for earthquake hazard in intra-plate regions

    Schweig, E.; Gomberg, J.; Petersen, M.; Ellis, M.; Bodin, P.; Mayrose, L.; Rastogi, B.K.

    2003-01-01

    The Mw 7.7 Bhuj earthquake occurred in the Kachchh District of the State of Gujarat, India on 26 January 2001, and was one of the most damaging intraplate earthquakes ever recorded. This earthquake is in many ways similar to the three great New Madrid earthquakes that occurred in the central United States in 1811-1812, An Indo-US team is studying the similarities and differences of these sequences in order to learn lessons for earthquake hazard in intraplate regions. Herein we present some preliminary conclusions from that study. Both the Kutch and New Madrid regions have rift type geotectonic setting. In both regions the strain rates are of the order of 10-9/yr and attenuation of seismic waves as inferred from observations of intensity and liquefaction are low. These strain rates predict recurrence intervals for Bhuj or New Madrid sized earthquakes of several thousand years or more. In contrast, intervals estimated from paleoseismic studies and from other independent data are significantly shorter, probably hundreds of years. All these observations together may suggest that earthquakes relax high ambient stresses that are locally concentrated by rheologic heterogeneities, rather than loading by plate-tectonic forces. The latter model generally underlies basic assumptions made in earthquake hazard assessment, that the long-term average rate of energy released by earthquakes is determined by the tectonic loading rate, which thus implies an inherent average periodicity of earthquake occurrence. Interpreting the observations in terms of the former model therefore may require re-examining the basic assumptions of hazard assessment.

  13. Source modeling of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal (Gorkha) earthquake sequence: Implications for geodynamics and earthquake hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McNamara, D. E.; Yeck, W. L.; Barnhart, W. D.; Schulte-Pelkum, V.; Bergman, E.; Adhikari, L. B.; Dixit, A.; Hough, S. E.; Benz, H. M.; Earle, P. S.

    2017-09-01

    The Gorkha earthquake on April 25th, 2015 was a long anticipated, low-angle thrust-faulting event on the shallow décollement between the India and Eurasia plates. We present a detailed multiple-event hypocenter relocation analysis of the Mw 7.8 Gorkha Nepal earthquake sequence, constrained by local seismic stations, and a geodetic rupture model based on InSAR and GPS data. We integrate these observations to place the Gorkha earthquake sequence into a seismotectonic context and evaluate potential earthquake hazard. Major results from this study include (1) a comprehensive catalog of calibrated hypocenters for the Gorkha earthquake sequence; (2) the Gorkha earthquake ruptured a 150 × 60 km patch of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), the décollement defining the plate boundary at depth, over an area surrounding but predominantly north of the capital city of Kathmandu (3) the distribution of aftershock seismicity surrounds the mainshock maximum slip patch; (4) aftershocks occur at or below the mainshock rupture plane with depths generally increasing to the north beneath the higher Himalaya, possibly outlining a 10-15 km thick subduction channel between the overriding Eurasian and subducting Indian plates; (5) the largest Mw 7.3 aftershock and the highest concentration of aftershocks occurred to the southeast the mainshock rupture, on a segment of the MHT décollement that was positively stressed towards failure; (6) the near surface portion of the MHT south of Kathmandu shows no aftershocks or slip during the mainshock. Results from this study characterize the details of the Gorkha earthquake sequence and provide constraints on where earthquake hazard remains high, and thus where future, damaging earthquakes may occur in this densely populated region. Up-dip segments of the MHT should be considered to be high hazard for future damaging earthquakes.

  14. Source modeling of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal (Gorkha) earthquake sequence: Implications for geodynamics and earthquake hazards

    McNamara, Daniel E.; Yeck, William; Barnhart, William D.; Schulte-Pelkum, V.; Bergman, E.; Adhikari, L. B.; Dixit, Amod; Hough, S.E.; Benz, Harley M.; Earle, Paul

    2017-01-01

    The Gorkha earthquake on April 25th, 2015 was a long anticipated, low-angle thrust-faulting event on the shallow décollement between the India and Eurasia plates. We present a detailed multiple-event hypocenter relocation analysis of the Mw 7.8 Gorkha Nepal earthquake sequence, constrained by local seismic stations, and a geodetic rupture model based on InSAR and GPS data. We integrate these observations to place the Gorkha earthquake sequence into a seismotectonic context and evaluate potential earthquake hazard.Major results from this study include (1) a comprehensive catalog of calibrated hypocenters for the Gorkha earthquake sequence; (2) the Gorkha earthquake ruptured a ~ 150 × 60 km patch of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), the décollement defining the plate boundary at depth, over an area surrounding but predominantly north of the capital city of Kathmandu (3) the distribution of aftershock seismicity surrounds the mainshock maximum slip patch; (4) aftershocks occur at or below the mainshock rupture plane with depths generally increasing to the north beneath the higher Himalaya, possibly outlining a 10–15 km thick subduction channel between the overriding Eurasian and subducting Indian plates; (5) the largest Mw 7.3 aftershock and the highest concentration of aftershocks occurred to the southeast the mainshock rupture, on a segment of the MHT décollement that was positively stressed towards failure; (6) the near surface portion of the MHT south of Kathmandu shows no aftershocks or slip during the mainshock. Results from this study characterize the details of the Gorkha earthquake sequence and provide constraints on where earthquake hazard remains high, and thus where future, damaging earthquakes may occur in this densely populated region. Up-dip segments of the MHT should be considered to be high hazard for future damaging earthquakes.

  15. Assessing the Utility of and Improving USGS Earthquake Hazards Program Products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gomberg, J. S.; Scott, M.; Weaver, C. S.; Sherrod, B. L.; Bailey, D.; Gibbons, D.

    2010-12-01

    A major focus of the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) has been the development and implementation of products and information meant to improve earthquake hazard assessment, mitigation and response for a myriad of users. Many of these products rely on the data and efforts of the EHP and its partner scientists who are building the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS). We report on a project meant to assess the utility of many of these products and information, conducted collaboratively by EHP scientists and Pierce County Department of Emergency Management staff. We have conducted focus group listening sessions with members of the engineering, business, medical, media, risk management, and emergency response communities as well as participated in the planning and implementation of earthquake exercises in the Pacific Northwest. Thus far we have learned that EHP and ANSS products satisfy many of the needs of engineers and some planners, and information is widely used by media and the general public. However, some important communities do not use these products despite their intended application for their purposes, particularly county and local emergency management and business communities. We have learned that products need to convey more clearly the impact of earthquakes, in everyday terms. Users also want products (e.g. maps, forecasts, etc.) that can be incorporated into tools and systems they use regularly. Rather than simply building products and posting them on websites, products need to be actively marketed and training provided. We suggest that engaging users prior to and during product development will enhance their usage and effectiveness.

  16. St. Louis area earthquake hazards mapping project; seismic and liquefaction hazard maps

    Cramer, Chris H.; Bauer, Robert A.; Chung, Jae-won; Rogers, David; Pierce, Larry; Voigt, Vicki; Mitchell, Brad; Gaunt, David; Williams, Robert; Hoffman, David; Hempen, Gregory L.; Steckel, Phyllis; Boyd, Oliver; Watkins, Connor M.; Tucker, Kathleen; McCallister, Natasha

    2016-01-01

    We present probabilistic and deterministic seismic and liquefaction hazard maps for the densely populated St. Louis metropolitan area that account for the expected effects of surficial geology on earthquake ground shaking. Hazard calculations were based on a map grid of 0.005°, or about every 500 m, and are thus higher in resolution than any earlier studies. To estimate ground motions at the surface of the model (e.g., site amplification), we used a new detailed near‐surface shear‐wave velocity model in a 1D equivalent‐linear response analysis. When compared with the 2014 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model, which uses a uniform firm‐rock‐site condition, the new probabilistic seismic‐hazard estimates document much more variability. Hazard levels for upland sites (consisting of bedrock and weathered bedrock overlain by loess‐covered till and drift deposits), show up to twice the ground‐motion values for peak ground acceleration (PGA), and similar ground‐motion values for 1.0 s spectral acceleration (SA). Probabilistic ground‐motion levels for lowland alluvial floodplain sites (generally the 20–40‐m‐thick modern Mississippi and Missouri River floodplain deposits overlying bedrock) exhibit up to twice the ground‐motion levels for PGA, and up to three times the ground‐motion levels for 1.0 s SA. Liquefaction probability curves were developed from available standard penetration test data assuming typical lowland and upland water table levels. A simplified liquefaction hazard map was created from the 5%‐in‐50‐year probabilistic ground‐shaking model. The liquefaction hazard ranges from low (60% of area expected to liquefy) in the lowlands. Because many transportation routes, power and gas transmission lines, and population centers exist in or on the highly susceptible lowland alluvium, these areas in the St. Louis region are at significant potential risk from seismically induced liquefaction and associated

  17. Seismic‐hazard forecast for 2016 including induced and natural earthquakes in the central and eastern United States

    Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

    2016-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has produced a one‐year (2016) probabilistic seismic‐hazard assessment for the central and eastern United States (CEUS) that includes contributions from both induced and natural earthquakes that are constructed with probabilistic methods using alternative data and inputs. This hazard assessment builds on our 2016 final model (Petersen et al., 2016) by adding sensitivity studies, illustrating hazard in new ways, incorporating new population data, and discussing potential improvements. The model considers short‐term seismic activity rates (primarily 2014–2015) and assumes that the activity rates will remain stationary over short time intervals. The final model considers different ways of categorizing induced and natural earthquakes by incorporating two equally weighted earthquake rate submodels that are composed of alternative earthquake inputs for catalog duration, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground‐motion models. These alternatives represent uncertainties on how we calculate earthquake occurrence and the diversity of opinion within the science community. In this article, we also test sensitivity to the minimum moment magnitude between M 4 and M 4.7 and the choice of applying a declustered catalog with b=1.0 rather than the full catalog with b=1.3. We incorporate two earthquake rate submodels: in the informed submodel we classify earthquakes as induced or natural, and in the adaptive submodel we do not differentiate. The alternative submodel hazard maps both depict high hazard and these are combined in the final model. Results depict several ground‐shaking measures as well as intensity and include maps showing a high‐hazard level (1% probability of exceedance in 1 year or greater). Ground motions reach 0.6g horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) in north‐central Oklahoma and southern Kansas, and about 0.2g PGA in the Raton basin of Colorado and New Mexico, in central Arkansas, and in

  18. An Earthquake Information Service with Free and Open Source Tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schroeder, M.; Stender, V.; Jüngling, S.

    2015-12-01

    At the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences in Potsdam, the working group Earthquakes and Volcano Physics examines the spatiotemporal behavior of earthquakes. In this context also the hazards of volcanic eruptions and tsunamis are explored. The aim is to collect related information after the occurrence of such extreme event and make them available for science and partly to the public as quickly as possible. However, the overall objective of this research is to reduce the geological risks that emanate from such natural hazards. In order to meet the stated objectives and to get a quick overview about the seismicity of a particular region and to compare the situation to historical events, a comprehensive visualization was desired. Based on the web-accessible data from the famous GFZ GEOFON network a user-friendly web mapping application was realized. Further, this web service integrates historical and current earthquake information from the USGS earthquake database, and more historical events from various other catalogues like Pacheco, International Seismological Centre (ISC) and more. This compilation of sources is unique in Earth sciences. Additionally, information about historical and current occurrences of volcanic eruptions and tsunamis are also retrievable. Another special feature in the application is the containment of times via a time shifting tool. Users can interactively vary the visualization by moving the time slider. Furthermore, the application was realized by using the newest JavaScript libraries which enables the application to run in all sizes of displays and devices. Our contribution will present the making of, the architecture behind, and few examples of the look and feel of this application.

  19. Quantitative estimation of time-variable earthquake hazard by using fuzzy set theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deyi, Feng; Ichikawa, M.

    1989-11-01

    In this paper, the various methods of fuzzy set theory, called fuzzy mathematics, have been applied to the quantitative estimation of the time-variable earthquake hazard. The results obtained consist of the following. (1) Quantitative estimation of the earthquake hazard on the basis of seismicity data. By using some methods of fuzzy mathematics, seismicity patterns before large earthquakes can be studied more clearly and more quantitatively, highly active periods in a given region and quiet periods of seismic activity before large earthquakes can be recognized, similarities in temporal variation of seismic activity and seismic gaps can be examined and, on the other hand, the time-variable earthquake hazard can be assessed directly on the basis of a series of statistical indices of seismicity. Two methods of fuzzy clustering analysis, the method of fuzzy similarity, and the direct method of fuzzy pattern recognition, have been studied is particular. One method of fuzzy clustering analysis is based on fuzzy netting, and another is based on the fuzzy equivalent relation. (2) Quantitative estimation of the earthquake hazard on the basis of observational data for different precursors. The direct method of fuzzy pattern recognition has been applied to research on earthquake precursors of different kinds. On the basis of the temporal and spatial characteristics of recognized precursors, earthquake hazards in different terms can be estimated. This paper mainly deals with medium-short-term precursors observed in Japan and China.

  20. Earthquake stress triggers, stress shadows, and seismic hazard

    Harris, R.A.

    2000-01-01

    Many aspects of earthquake mechanics remain an enigma at the beginning of the twenty-first century. One potential bright spot is the realization that simple calculations of stress changes may explain some earthquake interactions, just as previous and ongoing studies of stress changes have begun to explain human- induced seismicity. This paper, which is an update of Harris1, reviews many published works and presents a compilation of quantitative earthquake-interaction studies from a stress change perspective. This synthesis supplies some clues about certain aspects of earthquake mechanics. It also demonstrates that much work remains to be done before we have a complete story of how earthquakes work.

  1. Seismic Hazard Assessment for a Characteristic Earthquake Scenario: Probabilistic-Deterministic Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    mouloud, Hamidatou

    2016-04-01

    The objective of this paper is to analyze the seismic activity and the statistical treatment of seismicity catalog the Constantine region between 1357 and 2014 with 7007 seismic event. Our research is a contribution to improving the seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazard in the North-East Algeria. In the present study, Earthquake hazard maps for the Constantine region are calculated. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is classically performed through the Cornell approach by using a uniform earthquake distribution over the source area and a given magnitude range. This study aims at extending the PSHA approach to the case of a characteristic earthquake scenario associated with an active fault. The approach integrates PSHA with a high-frequency deterministic technique for the prediction of peak and spectral ground motion parameters in a characteristic earthquake. The method is based on the site-dependent evaluation of the probability of exceedance for the chosen strong-motion parameter. We proposed five sismotectonique zones. Four steps are necessary: (i) identification of potential sources of future earthquakes, (ii) assessment of their geological, geophysical and geometric, (iii) identification of the attenuation pattern of seismic motion, (iv) calculation of the hazard at a site and finally (v) hazard mapping for a region. In this study, the procedure of the earthquake hazard evaluation recently developed by Kijko and Sellevoll (1992) is used to estimate seismic hazard parameters in the northern part of Algeria.

  2. Examples of Communicating Uncertainty Applied to Earthquake Hazard and Risk Products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wald, D. J.

    2013-12-01

    When is communicating scientific modeling uncertainty effective? One viewpoint is that the answer depends on whether one is communicating hazard or risk: hazards have quantifiable uncertainties (which, granted, are often ignored), yet risk uncertainties compound uncertainties inherent in the hazard with those of the risk calculations, and are thus often larger. Larger, yet more meaningful: since risk entails societal impact of some form, consumers of such information tend to have a better grasp of the potential uncertainty ranges for loss information than they do for less-tangible hazard values (like magnitude, peak acceleration, or stream flow). I present two examples that compare and contrast communicating uncertainty for earthquake hazard and risk products. The first example is the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) ShakeMap system, which portrays the uncertain, best estimate of the distribution and intensity of shaking over the potentially impacted region. The shaking intensity is well constrained at seismograph locations yet is uncertain elsewhere, so shaking uncertainties are quantified and presented spatially. However, with ShakeMap, it seems that users tend to believe what they see is accurate in part because (1) considering the shaking uncertainty complicates the picture, and (2) it would not necessarily alter their decision-making. In contrast, when it comes to making earthquake-response decisions based on uncertain loss estimates, actions tend to be made only after analysis of the confidence in (or source of) such estimates. Uncertain ranges of loss estimates instill tangible images for users, and when such uncertainties become large, intuitive reality-check alarms go off, for example, when the range of losses presented become too wide to be useful. The USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, which in near-real time alerts users to the likelihood of ranges of potential fatalities and economic impact, is aimed at

  3. Assessment of earthquake-induced landslides hazard in El Salvador after the 2001 earthquakes using macroseismic analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Esposito, Eliana; Violante, Crescenzo; Giunta, Giuseppe; Ángel Hernández, Miguel

    2016-04-01

    Two strong earthquakes and a number of smaller aftershocks struck El Salvador in the year 2001. The January 13 2001 earthquake, Mw 7.7, occurred along the Cocos plate, 40 km off El Salvador southern coast. It resulted in about 1300 deaths and widespread damage, mainly due to massive landsliding. Two of the largest earthquake-induced landslides, Las Barioleras and Las Colinas (about 2x105 m3) produced major damage to buildings and infrastructures and 500 fatalities. A neighborhood in Santa Tecla, west of San Salvador, was destroyed. The February 13 2001 earthquake, Mw 6.5, occurred 40 km east-southeast of San Salvador. This earthquake caused over 300 fatalities and triggered several landslides over an area of 2,500 km2 mostly in poorly consolidated volcaniclastic deposits. The La Leona landslide (5-7x105 m3) caused 12 fatalities and extensive damage to the Panamerican Highway. Two very large landslides of 1.5 km3 and 12 km3 produced hazardous barrier lakes at Rio El Desague and Rio Jiboa, respectively. More than 16.000 landslides occurred throughout the country after both quakes; most of them occurred in pyroclastic deposits, with a volume less than 1x103m3. The present work aims to define the relationship between the above described earthquake intensity, size and areal distribution of induced landslides, as well as to refine the earthquake intensity in sparsely populated zones by using landslide effects. Landslides triggered by the 2001 seismic sequences provided useful indication for a realistic seismic hazard assessment, providing a basis for understanding, evaluating, and mapping the hazard and risk associated with earthquake-induced landslides.

  4. Tectonic styles of future earthquakes in Italy as input data for seismic hazard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pondrelli, S.; Meletti, C.; Rovida, A.; Visini, F.; D'Amico, V.; Pace, B.

    2017-12-01

    In a recent elaboration of a new seismogenic zonation and hazard model for Italy, we tried to understand how many indications we have on the tectonic style of future earthquake/rupture. Using all available or recomputed seismic moment tensors for relevant seismic events (Mw starting from 4.5) of the last 100 yrs, first arrival focal mechanisms for less recent earthquakes and also geological data on past activated faults, we collected a database gathering a thousands of data all over the Italian peninsula and regions around it. After several summations of seismic moment tensors, over regular grids of different dimensions and different thicknesses of the seismogenic layer, we applied the same procedure to each of the 50 area sources that were designed in the seismogenic zonation. The results for several seismic zones are very stable, e.g. along the southern Apennines we expect future earthquakes to be mostly extensional, although in the outer part of the chain strike-slip events are possible. In the Northern part of the Apennines we also expect different, opposite tectonic styles for different hypocentral depths. In several zones, characterized by a low seismic moment release, defined for the study region using 1000 yrs of catalog, the next possible tectonic style of future earthquakes is less clear. It is worth to note that for some zones the possible greatest earthquake could be not represented in the available observations. We also add to our analysis the computation of the seismic release rate, computed using a distributed completeness, identified for single great events of the historical seismic catalog for Italy. All these information layers, overlapped and compared, may be used to characterize each new seismogenic zone.

  5. An Advanced Real-Time Earthquake Information System in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, I.; Nakamura, H.; Suzuki, W.; Kunugi, T.; Aoi, S.; Fujiwara, H.

    2015-12-01

    J-RISQ (Japan Real-time Information System for earthquake) has been developing in NIED for appropriate first-actions to big earthquakes. When an earthquake occurs, seismic intensities (SI) are calculated first at each observation station and sent to the Data Management Center in different timing. The system begins the first estimation when the number of the stations observing the SI of 2.5 or larger exceeds the threshold amount. It estimates SI distribution, exposed population and earthquake damage on buildings by using basic data for estimation, such as subsurface amplification factors, population, and building information. It has been accumulated in J-SHIS (Japan Seismic Information Station) developed by NIED, a public portal for seismic hazard information across Japan. The series of the estimation is performed for each 250m square mesh and finally the estimated data is converted into information for each municipality. Since October 2013, we have opened estimated SI, exposed population etc. to the public through the website by making full use of maps and tables.In the previous system, we sometimes could not inspect the information of the surrounding areas out of the range suffered from strong motions, or the details of the focusing areas, and could not confirm whether the present information was the latest or not without accessing the website. J-RISQ has been advanced by introducing the following functions to settle those problems and promote utilization in local areas or in personal levels. In addition, the website in English has been released.・It has become possible to focus on the specific areas and inspect enlarged information.・The estimated information can be downloaded in the form of KML.・The estimated information can be updated automatically and be provided as the latest one.・The newest information can be inspected by using RSS readers or browsers corresponding to RSS.・Exclusive pages for smartphones have been prepared.The information estimated

  6. Earthquake hazards to domestic water distribution systems in Salt Lake County, Utah

    Highland, Lynn M.

    1985-01-01

    A magnitude-7. 5 earthquake occurring along the central portion of the Wasatch Fault, Utah, may cause significant damage to Salt Lake County's domestic water system. This system is composed of water treatment plants, aqueducts, distribution mains, and other facilities that are vulnerable to ground shaking, liquefaction, fault movement, and slope failures. Recent investigations into surface faulting, landslide potential, and earthquake intensity provide basic data for evaluating the potential earthquake hazards to water-distribution systems in the event of a large earthquake. Water supply system components may be vulnerable to one or more earthquake-related effects, depending on site geology and topography. Case studies of water-system damage by recent large earthquakes in Utah and in other regions of the United States offer valuable insights in evaluating water system vulnerability to earthquakes.

  7. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Himalayan-Tibetan Region from Historical and Instrumental Earthquake Catalogs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahman, M. Moklesur; Bai, Ling; Khan, Nangyal Ghani; Li, Guohui

    2018-02-01

    The Himalayan-Tibetan region has a long history of devastating earthquakes with wide-spread casualties and socio-economic damages. Here, we conduct the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by incorporating the incomplete historical earthquake records along with the instrumental earthquake catalogs for the Himalayan-Tibetan region. Historical earthquake records back to more than 1000 years ago and an updated, homogenized and declustered instrumental earthquake catalog since 1906 are utilized. The essential seismicity parameters, namely, the mean seismicity rate γ, the Gutenberg-Richter b value, and the maximum expected magnitude M max are estimated using the maximum likelihood algorithm assuming the incompleteness of the catalog. To compute the hazard value, three seismogenic source models (smoothed gridded, linear, and areal sources) and two sets of ground motion prediction equations are combined by means of a logic tree on accounting the epistemic uncertainties. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) at 0.2 and 1.0 s are predicted for 2 and 10% probabilities of exceedance over 50 years assuming bedrock condition. The resulting PGA and SA maps show a significant spatio-temporal variation in the hazard values. In general, hazard value is found to be much higher than the previous studies for regions, where great earthquakes have actually occurred. The use of the historical and instrumental earthquake catalogs in combination of multiple seismogenic source models provides better seismic hazard constraints for the Himalayan-Tibetan region.

  8. Neo-deterministic definition of earthquake hazard scenarios: a multiscale application to India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peresan, Antonella; Magrin, Andrea; Parvez, Imtiyaz A.; Rastogi, Bal K.; Vaccari, Franco; Cozzini, Stefano; Bisignano, Davide; Romanelli, Fabio; Panza, Giuliano F.; Ashish, Mr; Mir, Ramees R.

    2014-05-01

    performed to understand the influence of the model characteristics on the computed ground shaking scenarios. For massive parametric tests, or for the repeated generation of large scale hazard maps, the methodology can take advantage of more advanced computational platforms, ranging from GRID computing infrastructures to HPC dedicated clusters up to Cloud computing. In such a way, scientists can deal efficiently with the variety and complexity of the potential earthquake sources, and perform parametric studies to characterize the related uncertainties. NDSHA provides realistic time series of expected ground motion readily applicable for seismic engineering analysis and other mitigation actions. The methodology has been successfully applied to strategic buildings, lifelines and cultural heritage sites, and for the purpose of seismic microzoning in several urban areas worldwide. A web application is currently being developed that facilitates the access to the NDSHA methodology and the related outputs by end-users, who are interested in reliable territorial planning and in the design and construction of buildings and infrastructures in seismic areas. At the same, the web application is also shaping up as an advanced educational tool to explore interactively how seismic waves are generated at the source, propagate inside structural models, and build up ground shaking scenarios. We illustrate the preliminary results obtained from a multiscale application of NDSHA approach to the territory of India, zooming from large scale hazard maps of ground shaking at bedrock, to the definition of local scale earthquake scenarios for selected sites in the Gujarat state (NW India). The study aims to provide the community (e.g. authorities and engineers) with advanced information for earthquake risk mitigation, which is particularly relevant to Gujarat in view of the rapid development and urbanization of the region.

  9. Informing Workers of Chemical Hazards: The OSHA Hazard Communication Standard.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    American Chemical Society, Washington, DC.

    Practical information on how to implement a chemical-related safety program is outlined in this publication. Highlights of the federal Occupational Safety and Health Administrations (OSHA) Hazard Communication Standard are presented and explained. These include: (1) hazard communication requirements (consisting of warning labels, material safety…

  10. Earthquake Hazard in the Heart of the Homeland

    Gomberg, Joan; Schweig, Eugene

    2007-01-01

    Evidence that earthquakes threaten the Mississippi, Ohio, and Wabash River valleys of the Central United States abounds. In fact, several of the largest historical earthquakes to strike the continental United States occurred in the winter of 1811-1812 along the New Madrid seismic zone, which stretches from just west of Memphis, Tenn., into southern Illinois. Several times in the past century, moderate earthquakes have been widely felt in the Wabash Valley seismic zone along the southern border of Illinois and Indiana. Throughout the region, between 150 and 200 earthquakes are recorded annually by a network of monitoring instruments, although most are too small to be felt by people. Geologic evidence for prehistoric earthquakes throughout the region has been mounting since the late 1970s. But how significant is the threat? How likely are large earthquakes and, more importantly, what is the chance that the shaking they cause will be damaging?

  11. 88 hours: the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center response to the March 11, 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake

    Wald, David J.; Hayes, Gavin P.; Benz, Harley M.; Earle, Paul S.; Briggs, Richard W.

    2011-01-01

    The M 9.0 11 March 2011 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake and associated tsunami near the east coast of the island of Honshu caused tens of thousands of deaths and potentially over one trillion dollars in damage, resulting in one of the worst natural disasters ever recorded. The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (USGS NEIC), through its responsibility to respond to all significant global earthquakes as part of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, quickly produced and distributed a suite of earthquake information products to inform emergency responders, the public, the media, and the academic community of the earthquake's potential impact and to provide scientific background for the interpretation of the event's tectonic context and potential for future hazard. Here we present a timeline of the NEIC response to this devastating earthquake in the context of rapidly evolving information emanating from the global earthquake-response community. The timeline includes both internal and publicly distributed products, the relative timing of which highlights the inherent tradeoffs between the requirement to provide timely alerts and the necessity for accurate, authoritative information. The timeline also documents the iterative and evolutionary nature of the standard products produced by the NEIC and includes a behind-the-scenes look at the decisions, data, and analysis tools that drive our rapid product distribution.

  12. 78 FR 12780 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Comment Request

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-02-25

    ... INFORMATION CONTACT: To request additional information about this ICR, Elizabeth Lemersal, Earthquake Hazards... . SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Title: Earthquake Hazards Program Research and Monitoring. OMB Control Number: 1028... findings are essential to fulfilling USGS's responsibility under the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act to...

  13. Cascading hazards: Understanding triggering relations between wet tropical cyclones, landslides, and earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wdowinski, S.; Peng, Z.; Ferrier, K.; Lin, C. H.; Hsu, Y. J.; Shyu, J. B. H.

    2017-12-01

    Earthquakes, landslides, and tropical cyclones are extreme hazards that pose significant threats to human life and property. Some of the couplings between these hazards are well known. For example, sudden, widespread landsliding can be triggered by large earthquakes and by extreme rainfall events like tropical cyclones. Recent studies have also shown that earthquakes can be triggered by erosional unloading over 100-year timescales. In a NASA supported project, titled "Cascading hazards: Understanding triggering relations between wet tropical cyclones, landslides, and earthquake", we study triggering relations between these hazard types. The project focuses on such triggering relations in Taiwan, which is subjected to very wet tropical storms, landslides, and earthquakes. One example for such triggering relations is the 2009 Morakot typhoon, which was the wettest recorded typhoon in Taiwan (2850 mm of rain in 100 hours). The typhoon caused widespread flooding and triggered more than 20,000 landslides, including the devastating Hsiaolin landslide. Six months later, the same area was hit by the 2010 M=6.4 Jiashian earthquake near Kaohsiung city, which added to the infrastructure damage induced by the typhoon and the landslides. Preliminary analysis of temporal relations between main-shock earthquakes and the six wettest typhoons in Taiwan's past 50 years reveals similar temporal relations between M≥5 events and wet typhoons. Future work in the project will include remote sensing analysis of landsliding, seismic and geodetic monitoring of landslides, detection of microseismicity and tremor activities, and mechanical modeling of crustal stress changes due to surface unloading.

  14. The Active Fault Parameters for Time-Dependent Earthquake Hazard Assessment in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Y.; Cheng, C.; Lin, P.; Shao, K.; Wu, Y.; Shih, C.

    2011-12-01

    Taiwan is located at the boundary between the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian Plate, with a convergence rate of ~ 80 mm/yr in a ~N118E direction. The plate motion is so active that earthquake is very frequent. In the Taiwan area, disaster-inducing earthquakes often result from active faults. For this reason, it's an important subject to understand the activity and hazard of active faults. The active faults in Taiwan are mainly located in the Western Foothills and the Eastern longitudinal valley. Active fault distribution map published by the Central Geological Survey (CGS) in 2010 shows that there are 31 active faults in the island of Taiwan and some of which are related to earthquake. Many researchers have investigated these active faults and continuously update new data and results, but few people have integrated them for time-dependent earthquake hazard assessment. In this study, we want to gather previous researches and field work results and then integrate these data as an active fault parameters table for time-dependent earthquake hazard assessment. We are going to gather the seismic profiles or earthquake relocation of a fault and then combine the fault trace on land to establish the 3D fault geometry model in GIS system. We collect the researches of fault source scaling in Taiwan and estimate the maximum magnitude from fault length or fault area. We use the characteristic earthquake model to evaluate the active fault earthquake recurrence interval. In the other parameters, we will collect previous studies or historical references and complete our parameter table of active faults in Taiwan. The WG08 have done the time-dependent earthquake hazard assessment of active faults in California. They established the fault models, deformation models, earthquake rate models, and probability models and then compute the probability of faults in California. Following these steps, we have the preliminary evaluated probability of earthquake-related hazards in certain

  15. Lateral spread hazard mapping of the northern Salt Lake Valley, Utah, for a M7.0 scenario earthquake

    Olsen, M.J.; Bartlett, S.F.; Solomon, B.J.

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes the methodology used to develop a lateral spread-displacement hazard map for northern Salt Lake Valley, Utah, using a scenario M7.0 earthquake occurring on the Salt Lake City segment of the Wasatch fault. The mapping effort is supported by a substantial amount of geotechnical, geologic, and topographic data compiled for the Salt Lake Valley, Utah. ArcGIS?? routines created for the mapping project then input this information to perform site-specific lateral spread analyses using methods developed by Bartlett and Youd (1992) and Youd et al. (2002) at individual borehole locations. The distributions of predicted lateral spread displacements from the boreholes located spatially within a geologic unit were subsequently used to map the hazard for that particular unit. The mapped displacement zones consist of low hazard (0-0.1 m), moderate hazard (0.1-0.3 m), high hazard (0.3-1.0 m), and very high hazard (> 1.0 m). As expected, the produced map shows the highest hazard in the alluvial deposits at the center of the valley and in sandy deposits close to the fault. This mapping effort is currently being applied to the southern part of the Salt Lake Valley, Utah, and probabilistic maps are being developed for the entire valley. ?? 2007, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  16. Ground motions from induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas and the implications for seismic hazard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moschetti, M. P.; Rennolet, S.; Thompson, E.; Yeck, W.; McNamara, D. E.; Herrmann, R. B.; Powers, P.; Hoover, S. M.

    2016-12-01

    Recent efforts to characterize the seismic hazard resulting from increased seismicity rates in Oklahoma and Kansas highlight the need for a regionalized ground motion characterization. To support these efforts, we measure and compile strong ground motions and compare these average ground motions intensity measures (IMs) with existing ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). IMs are computed for available broadband and strong-motion records from M≥3 earthquakes occurring January 2009-April 2016, using standard strong motion processing guidelines. We verified our methods by comparing results from specific earthquakes to other standard procedures such as the USGS Shakemap system. The large number of records required an automated processing scheme, which was complicated by the extremely high rate of small-magnitude earthquakes 2014-2016. Orientation-independent IMs include peak ground motions (acceleration and velocity) and pseudo-spectral accelerations (5 percent damping, 0.1-10 s period). Metadata for the records included relocated event hypocenters. The database includes more than 160,000 records from about 3200 earthquakes. Estimates of the mean and standard deviation of the IMs are computed by distance binning at intervals of 2 km. Mean IMs exhibit a clear break in geometrical attenuation at epicentral distances of about 50-70 km, which is consistent with previous studies in the CEUS. Comparisons of these ground motions with modern GMPEs provide some insight into the relative IMs of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas relative to the western U.S. and the central and eastern U.S. The site response for these stations is uncertain because very little is known about shallow seismic velocity in the region, and we make no attempt to correct observed IMs to a reference site conditions. At close distances, the observed IMs are lower than the predictions of the seed GMPEs of the NGA-East project (and about consistent with NGA-West-2 ground motions). This ground

  17. The Wenchuan, China M8.0 Earthquake: A Lesson and Implication for Seismic Hazard Mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Z.

    2008-12-01

    The Wenchuan, China M8.0 earthquake caused great damage and huge casualty. 69,197 people were killed, 374,176 people were injured, and 18,341 people are still missing. The estimated direct economic loss is about 126 billion U.S. dollar. The Wenchuan earthquake again demonstrated that earthquake does not kill people, but the built environments and induced hazards, landslides in particular, do. Therefore, it is critical to strengthen the built environments, such buildings and bridges, and to mitigate the induced hazards in order to avoid such disaster. As a part of the so-called North-South Seismic Zone in China, the Wenchuan earthquake occurred along the Longmen Shan thrust belt which forms a boundary between the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Sichuan basin, and there is a long history (~4,000 years) of seismicity in the area. The historical records show that the area experienced high intensity (i.e., greater than IX) in the past several thousand years. In other words, the area is well-known to have high seismic hazard because of its tectonic setting and seismicity. However, only intensity VII (0.1 to 0.15g PGA) has been considered for seismic design for the built environments in the area. This was one of the main reasons that so many building collapses, particularly the school buildings, during the Wenchuan earthquake. It is clear that the seismic design (i.e., the design ground motion or intensity) is not adequate in the Wenchuan earthquake stricken area. A lesson can be learned from the Wenchuan earthquake on the seismic hazard and risk assessment. A lesson can also be learned from this earthquake on seismic hazard mitigation and/or seismic risk reduction.

  18. Evaluating earthquake hazards in the Los Angeles region; an earth-science perspective

    Ziony, Joseph I.

    1985-01-01

    Potentially destructive earthquakes are inevitable in the Los Angeles region of California, but hazards prediction can provide a basis for reducing damage and loss. This volume identifies the principal geologically controlled earthquake hazards of the region (surface faulting, strong shaking, ground failure, and tsunamis), summarizes methods for characterizing their extent and severity, and suggests opportunities for their reduction. Two systems of active faults generate earthquakes in the Los Angeles region: northwest-trending, chiefly horizontal-slip faults, such as the San Andreas, and west-trending, chiefly vertical-slip faults, such as those of the Transverse Ranges. Faults in these two systems have produced more than 40 damaging earthquakes since 1800. Ninety-five faults have slipped in late Quaternary time (approximately the past 750,000 yr) and are judged capable of generating future moderate to large earthquakes and displacing the ground surface. Average rates of late Quaternary slip or separation along these faults provide an index of their relative activity. The San Andreas and San Jacinto faults have slip rates measured in tens of millimeters per year, but most other faults have rates of about 1 mm/yr or less. Intermediate rates of as much as 6 mm/yr characterize a belt of Transverse Ranges faults that extends from near Santa Barbara to near San Bernardino. The dimensions of late Quaternary faults provide a basis for estimating the maximum sizes of likely future earthquakes in the Los Angeles region: moment magnitude .(M) 8 for the San Andreas, M 7 for the other northwest-trending elements of that fault system, and M 7.5 for the Transverse Ranges faults. Geologic and seismologic evidence along these faults, however, suggests that, for planning and designing noncritical facilities, appropriate sizes would be M 8 for the San Andreas, M 7 for the San Jacinto, M 6.5 for other northwest-trending faults, and M 6.5 to 7 for the Transverse Ranges faults. The

  19. Long aftershock sequences within continents and implications for earthquake hazard assessment.

    PubMed

    Stein, Seth; Liu, Mian

    2009-11-05

    One of the most powerful features of plate tectonics is that the known plate motions give insight into both the locations and average recurrence interval of future large earthquakes on plate boundaries. Plate tectonics gives no insight, however, into where and when earthquakes will occur within plates, because the interiors of ideal plates should not deform. As a result, within plate interiors, assessments of earthquake hazards rely heavily on the assumption that the locations of small earthquakes shown by the short historical record reflect continuing deformation that will cause future large earthquakes. Here, however, we show that many of these recent earthquakes are probably aftershocks of large earthquakes that occurred hundreds of years ago. We present a simple model predicting that the length of aftershock sequences varies inversely with the rate at which faults are loaded. Aftershock sequences within the slowly deforming continents are predicted to be significantly longer than the decade typically observed at rapidly loaded plate boundaries. These predictions are in accord with observations. So the common practice of treating continental earthquakes as steady-state seismicity overestimates the hazard in presently active areas and underestimates it elsewhere.

  20. Tsunami hazard assessments with consideration of uncertain earthquakes characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sepulveda, I.; Liu, P. L. F.; Grigoriu, M. D.; Pritchard, M. E.

    2017-12-01

    The uncertainty quantification of tsunami assessments due to uncertain earthquake characteristics faces important challenges. First, the generated earthquake samples must be consistent with the properties observed in past events. Second, it must adopt an uncertainty propagation method to determine tsunami uncertainties with a feasible computational cost. In this study we propose a new methodology, which improves the existing tsunami uncertainty assessment methods. The methodology considers two uncertain earthquake characteristics, the slip distribution and location. First, the methodology considers the generation of consistent earthquake slip samples by means of a Karhunen Loeve (K-L) expansion and a translation process (Grigoriu, 2012), applicable to any non-rectangular rupture area and marginal probability distribution. The K-L expansion was recently applied by Le Veque et al. (2016). We have extended the methodology by analyzing accuracy criteria in terms of the tsunami initial conditions. Furthermore, and unlike this reference, we preserve the original probability properties of the slip distribution, by avoiding post sampling treatments such as earthquake slip scaling. Our approach is analyzed and justified in the framework of the present study. Second, the methodology uses a Stochastic Reduced Order model (SROM) (Grigoriu, 2009) instead of a classic Monte Carlo simulation, which reduces the computational cost of the uncertainty propagation. The methodology is applied on a real case. We study tsunamis generated at the site of the 2014 Chilean earthquake. We generate earthquake samples with expected magnitude Mw 8. We first demonstrate that the stochastic approach of our study generates consistent earthquake samples with respect to the target probability laws. We also show that the results obtained from SROM are more accurate than classic Monte Carlo simulations. We finally validate the methodology by comparing the simulated tsunamis and the tsunami records for

  1. Time-dependent neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios for the 2016 Central Italy earthquakes sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peresan, Antonella; Kossobokov, Vladimir; Romashkova, Leontina; Panza, Giuliano F.

    2017-04-01

    Predicting earthquakes and related ground shaking is widely recognized among the most challenging scientific problems, both for societal relevance and intrinsic complexity of the problem. The development of reliable forecasting tools requires their rigorous formalization and testing, first in retrospect, and then in an experimental real-time mode, which imply a careful application of statistics to data sets of limited size and different accuracy. Accordingly, the operational issues of prospective validation and use of time-dependent neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios are discussed, reviewing the results in their application in Italy and surroundings. Long-term practice and results obtained for the Italian territory in about two decades of rigorous prospective testing, support the feasibility of earthquake forecasting based on the analysis of seismicity patterns at the intermediate-term middle-range scale. Italy is the only country worldwide where two independent, globally tested, algorithms are simultaneously applied, namely CN and M8S, which permit to deal with multiple sets of seismic precursors to allow for a diagnosis of the intervals of time when a strong event is likely to occur inside a given region. Based on routinely updated space-time information provided by CN and M8S forecasts, an integrated procedure has been developed that allows for the definition of time-dependent seismic hazard scenarios, through the realistic modeling of ground motion by the neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA). This scenario-based methodology permits to construct, both at regional and local scale, scenarios of ground motion for the time interval when a strong event is likely to occur within the alerted areas. CN and M8S predictions, as well as the related time-dependent ground motion scenarios associated with the alarmed areas, are routinely updated since 2006. The issues and results from real-time testing of the integrated NDSHA scenarios are illustrated, with special

  2. Seismicity and seismic hazard in Sabah, East Malaysia from earthquake and geodetic data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilligan, A.; Rawlinson, N.; Tongkul, F.; Stephenson, R.

    2017-12-01

    While the levels of seismicity are low in most of Malaysia, the state of Sabah in northern Borneo has moderate levels of seismicity. Notable earthquakes in the region include the 1976 M6.2 Lahad Datu earthquake and the 2015 M6 Ranau earthquake. The recent Ranau earthquake resulted in the deaths of 18 people on Mt Kinabalu, an estimated 100 million RM ( US$23 million) damage to buildings, roads, and infrastructure from shaking, and flooding, reduced water quality, and damage to farms from landslides. Over the last 40 years the population of Sabah has increased to over four times what it was in 1976, yet seismic hazard in Sabah remains poorly understood. Using seismic and geodetic data we hope to better quantify the hazards posed by earthquakes in Sabah, and thus help to minimize risk. In order to do this we need to know about the locations of earthquakes, types of earthquakes that occur, and faults that are generating them. We use data from 15 MetMalaysia seismic stations currently operating in Sabah to develop a region-specific velocity model from receiver functions and a pre-existing surface wave model. We use this new velocity model to (re)locate earthquakes that occurred in Sabah from 2005-2016, including a large number of aftershocks from the 2015 Ranau earthquake. We use a probabilistic nonlinear earthquake location program to locate the earthquakes and then refine their relative locations using a double difference method. The recorded waveforms are further used to obtain moment tensor solutions for these earthquakes. Earthquake locations and moment tensor solutions are then compared with the locations of faults throughout Sabah. Faults are identified from high-resolution IFSAR images and subsequent fieldwork, with a particular focus on the Lahad Datau and Ranau areas. Used together, these seismic and geodetic data can help us to develop a new seismic hazard model for Sabah, as well as aiding in the delivery of outreach activities regarding seismic hazard

  3. Aftereffects of Subduction-Zone Earthquakes: Potential Tsunami Hazards along the Japan Sea Coast.

    PubMed

    Minoura, Koji; Sugawara, Daisuke; Yamanoi, Tohru; Yamada, Tsutomu

    2015-10-01

    The 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake is a typical subduction-zone earthquake and is the 4th largest earthquake after the beginning of instrumental observation of earthquakes in the 19th century. In fact, the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake displaced the northeast Japan island arc horizontally and vertically. The displacement largely changed the tectonic situation of the arc from compressive to tensile. The 9th century in Japan was a period of natural hazards caused by frequent large-scale earthquakes. The aseismic tsunamis that inflicted damage on the Japan Sea coast in the 11th century were related to the occurrence of massive earthquakes that represented the final stage of a period of high seismic activity. Anti-compressive tectonics triggered by the subduction-zone earthquakes induced gravitational instability, which resulted in the generation of tsunamis caused by slope failing at the arc-back-arc boundary. The crustal displacement after the 2011 earthquake infers an increased risk of unexpected local tsunami flooding in the Japan Sea coastal areas.

  4. The 1906 earthquake and a century of progress in understanding earthquakes and their hazards

    Zoback, M.L.

    2006-01-01

    The 18 April 1906 San Francisco earthquake killed nearly 3000 people and left 225,000 residents homeless. Three days after the earthquake, an eight-person Earthquake Investigation Commission composed of 25 geologists, seismologists, geodesists, biologists and engineers, as well as some 300 others started work under the supervision of Andrew Lawson to collect and document physical phenomena related to the quake . On 31 May 1906, the commission published a preliminary 17-page report titled "The Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission". The report included the bulk of the geological and morphological descriptions of the faulting, detailed reports on shaking intensity, as well as an impressive atlas of 40 oversized maps and folios. Nearly 100 years after its publication, the Commission Report remains a model for post-earthquake investigations. Because the diverse data sets were so complete and carefully documented, researchers continue to apply modern analysis techniques to learn from the 1906 earthquake. While the earthquake marked a seminal event in the history of California, it served as impetus for the birth of modern earthquake science in the United States.

  5. Near real-time aftershock hazard maps for earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCloskey, J.; Nalbant, S. S.

    2009-04-01

    Stress interaction modelling is routinely used to explain the spatial relationships between earthquakes and their aftershocks. On 28 October 2008 a M6.4 earthquake occurred near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border killing several hundred and causing widespread devastation. A second M6.4 event occurred 12 hours later 20km to the south east. By making some well supported assumptions concerning the source event and the geometry of any likely triggered event it was possible to map those areas most likely to experience further activity. Using Google earth, it would further have been possible to identify particular settlements in the source area which were particularly at risk and to publish their locations globally within about 3 hours of the first earthquake. Such actions could have significantly focused the initial emergency response management. We argue for routine prospective testing of such forecasts and dialogue between social and physical scientists and emergency response professionals around the practical application of these techniques.

  6. USGS GNSS Applications to Earthquake Disaster Response and Hazard Mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hudnut, K. W.; Murray, J. R.; Minson, S. E.

    2015-12-01

    Rapid characterization of earthquake rupture is important during a disaster because it establishes which fault ruptured and the extent and amount of fault slip. These key parameters, in turn, can augment in situ seismic sensors for identifying disruption to lifelines as well as localized damage along the fault break. Differential GNSS station positioning, along with imagery differencing, are important methods for augmenting seismic sensors. During response to recent earthquakes (1989 Loma Prieta, 1992 Landers, 1994 Northridge, 1999 Hector Mine, 2010 El Mayor - Cucapah, 2012 Brawley Swarm and 2014 South Napa earthquakes), GNSS co-seismic and post-seismic observations proved to be essential for rapid earthquake source characterization. Often, we find that GNSS results indicate key aspects of the earthquake source that would not have been known in the absence of GNSS data. Seismic, geologic, and imagery data alone, without GNSS, would miss important details of the earthquake source. That is, GNSS results provide important additional insight into the earthquake source properties, which in turn help understand the relationship between shaking and damage patterns. GNSS also adds to understanding of the distribution of slip along strike and with depth on a fault, which can help determine possible lifeline damage due to fault offset, as well as the vertical deformation and tilt that are vitally important for gravitationally driven water systems. The GNSS processing work flow that took more than one week 25 years ago now takes less than one second. Formerly, portable receivers needed to be set up at a site, operated for many hours, then data retrieved, processed and modeled by a series of manual steps. The establishment of continuously telemetered, continuously operating high-rate GNSS stations and the robust automation of all aspects of data retrieval and processing, has led to sub-second overall system latency. Within the past few years, the final challenges of

  7. Increasing seismicity in the U. S. midcontinent: Implications for earthquake hazard

    Ellsworth, William L.; Llenos, Andrea L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Michael, Andrew J.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; Mueller, Charles S.; Petersen, Mark D.; Calais, Eric

    2015-01-01

    Earthquake activity in parts of the central United States has increased dramatically in recent years. The space-time distribution of the increased seismicity, as well as numerous published case studies, indicates that the increase is of anthropogenic origin, principally driven by injection of wastewater coproduced with oil and gas from tight formations. Enhanced oil recovery and long-term production also contribute to seismicity at a few locations. Preliminary hazard models indicate that areas experiencing the highest rate of earthquakes in 2014 have a short-term (one-year) hazard comparable to or higher than the hazard in the source region of tectonic earthquakes in the New Madrid and Charleston seismic zones.

  8. Studying geodesy and earthquake hazard in and around the New Madrid Seismic Zone

    Boyd, Oliver Salz; Magistrale, Harold

    2011-01-01

    Workshop on New Madrid Geodesy and the Challenges of Understanding Intraplate Earthquakes; Norwood, Massachusetts, 4 March 2011 Twenty-six researchers gathered for a workshop sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and FM Global to discuss geodesy in and around the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) and its relation to earthquake hazards. The group addressed the challenge of reconciling current geodetic measurements, which show low present-day surface strain rates, with paleoseismic evidence of recent, relatively frequent, major earthquakes in the region. The workshop presentations and conclusions will be available in a forthcoming USGS open-file report (http://pubs.usgs.gov).

  9. The wicked problem of earthquake hazard in developing countries: the example of Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steckler, M. S.; Akhter, S. H.; Stein, S.; Seeber, L.

    2017-12-01

    Many developing nations in earthquake-prone areas confront a tough problem: how much of their limited resources to use mitigating earthquake hazards? This decision is difficult because it is unclear when an infrequent major earthquake may happen, how big it could be, and how much harm it may cause. This issue faces nations with profound immediate needs and ongoing rapid urbanization. Earthquake hazard mitigation in Bangladesh is a wicked problem. It is the world's most densely populated nation, with 160 million people in an area the size of Iowa. Complex geology and sparse data make assessing a possibly-large earthquake hazard difficult. Hence it is hard to decide how much of the limited resources available should be used for earthquake hazard mitigation, given other more immediate needs. Per capita GDP is $1200, so Bangladesh is committed to economic growth and resources are needed to address many critical challenges and hazards. In their subtropical environment, rural Bangladeshis traditionally relied on modest mud or bamboo homes. Their rapidly growing, crowded capital, Dhaka, is filled with multistory concrete buildings likely to be vulnerable to earthquakes. The risk is compounded by the potential collapse of services and accessibility after a major temblor. However, extensive construction as the population shifts from rural to urban provides opportunity for earthquake-risk reduction. While this situation seems daunting, it is not hopeless. Robust risk management is practical, even for developing nations. It involves recognizing uncertainties and developing policies that should give a reasonable outcome for a range of the possible hazard and loss scenarios. Over decades, Bangladesh has achieved a thousandfold reduction in risk from tropical cyclones by building shelters and setting up a warning system. Similar efforts are underway for earthquakes. Smart investments can be very effective, even if modest. Hence, we suggest strategies consistent with high

  10. Understanding Earthquake Hazard & Disaster in Himalaya - A Perspective on Earthquake Forecast in Himalayan Region of South Central Tibet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shanker, D.; Paudyal, ,; Singh, H.

    2010-12-01

    It is not only the basic understanding of the phenomenon of earthquake, its resistance offered by the designed structure, but the understanding of the socio-economic factors, engineering properties of the indigenous materials, local skill and technology transfer models are also of vital importance. It is important that the engineering aspects of mitigation should be made a part of public policy documents. Earthquakes, therefore, are and were thought of as one of the worst enemies of mankind. Due to the very nature of release of energy, damage is evident which, however, will not culminate in a disaster unless it strikes a populated area. The word mitigation may be defined as the reduction in severity of something. The Earthquake disaster mitigation, therefore, implies that such measures may be taken which help reduce severity of damage caused by earthquake to life, property and environment. While “earthquake disaster mitigation” usually refers primarily to interventions to strengthen the built environment, and “earthquake protection” is now considered to include human, social and administrative aspects of reducing earthquake effects. It should, however, be noted that reduction of earthquake hazards through prediction is considered to be the one of the effective measures, and much effort is spent on prediction strategies. While earthquake prediction does not guarantee safety and even if predicted correctly the damage to life and property on such a large scale warrants the use of other aspects of mitigation. While earthquake prediction may be of some help, mitigation remains the main focus of attention of the civil society. Present study suggests that anomalous seismic activity/ earthquake swarm existed prior to the medium size earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. The mainshocks were preceded by the quiescence period which is an indication for the occurrence of future seismic activity. In all the cases, the identified episodes of anomalous seismic activity were

  11. Earthquake induced landslide hazard: a multidisciplinary field observatory in the Marmara SUPERSITE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bigarré, Pascal

    2014-05-01

    Earthquake-triggered landslides have an increasing disastrous impact in seismic regions due to the fast growing urbanization and infrastructures. Just considering disasters from the last fifteen years, among which the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, these events generated tens of thousands of coseismic landslides. Those resulted in amazing death toll and considerable damages, affecting the regional landscape including its hydrological main features. Despite a strong impetus in research during past decades, knowledge on those geohazards is still fragmentary, while databases of high quality observational data are lacking. These phenomena call for further collaborative researches aiming eventually to enhance preparedness and crisis management. As one of the three SUPERSITE concept FP7 projects dealing with long term high level monitoring of major natural hazards at the European level, the MARSITE project gathers research groups in a comprehensive monitoring activity developed in the Sea of Marmara Region, one of the most densely populated parts of Europe and rated at high seismic risk level since the 1999 Izmit and Duzce devastating earthquakes. Besides the seismic threat, landslides in Turkey and in this region constitute an important source of loss. The 1999 Earthquake caused extensive landslides while tsunami effects were observed during the post-event surveys in several places along the coasts of the Izmit bay. The 6th Work Package of MARSITE project gathers 9 research groups to study earthquake-induced landslides focusing on two sub-regional areas of high interest. First, the Cekmece-Avcilar peninsula, located westwards of Istanbul, is a highly urbanized concentrated landslide prone area, showing high susceptibility to both rainfalls while affected by very significant seismic site effects. Second, the off-shore entrance of the Izmit Gulf, close to the termination of the surface rupture of the 1999 earthquake

  12. Oklahoma experiences largest earthquake during ongoing regional wastewater injection hazard mitigation efforts

    Yeck, William; Hayes, Gavin; McNamara, Daniel E.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; Barnhart, William; Earle, Paul; Benz, Harley M.

    2017-01-01

    The 3 September 2016, Mw 5.8 Pawnee earthquake was the largest recorded earthquake in the state of Oklahoma. Seismic and geodetic observations of the Pawnee sequence, including precise hypocenter locations and moment tensor modeling, shows that the Pawnee earthquake occurred on a previously unknown left-lateral strike-slip basement fault that intersects the mapped right-lateral Labette fault zone. The Pawnee earthquake is part of an unprecedented increase in the earthquake rate in Oklahoma that is largely considered the result of the deep injection of waste fluids from oil and gas production. If this is, indeed, the case for the M5.8 Pawnee earthquake, then this would be the largest event to have been induced by fluid injection. Since 2015, Oklahoma has undergone wide-scale mitigation efforts primarily aimed at reducing injection volumes. Thus far in 2016, the rate of M3 and greater earthquakes has decreased as compared to 2015, while the cumulative moment—or energy released from earthquakes—has increased. This highlights the difficulty in earthquake hazard mitigation efforts given the poorly understood long-term diffusive effects of wastewater injection and their connection to seismicity.

  13. The California Post-Earthquake Information Clearinghouse: A Plan to Learn From the Next Large California Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loyd, R.; Walter, S.; Fenton, J.; Tubbesing, S.; Greene, M.

    2008-12-01

    In the rush to remove debris after a damaging earthquake, perishable data related to a wide range of impacts on the physical, built and social environments can be lost. The California Post-Earthquake Information Clearinghouse is intended to prevent this data loss by supporting the earth scientists, engineers, and social and policy researchers who will conduct fieldwork in the affected areas in the hours and days following the earthquake to study these effects. First called for by Governor Ronald Reagan following the destructive M6.5 San Fernando earthquake in 1971, the concept of the Clearinghouse has since been incorporated into the response plans of the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (USGS Circular 1242). This presentation is intended to acquaint scientists with the purpose, functions, and services of the Clearinghouse. Typically, the Clearinghouse is set up in the vicinity of the earthquake within 24 hours of the mainshock and is maintained for several days to several weeks. It provides a location where field researchers can assemble to share and discuss their observations, plan and coordinate subsequent field work, and communicate significant findings directly to the emergency responders and to the public through press conferences. As the immediate response effort winds down, the Clearinghouse will ensure that collected data are archived and made available through "lessons learned" reports and publications that follow significant earthquakes. Participants in the quarterly meetings of the Clearinghouse include representatives from state and federal agencies, universities, NGOs and other private groups. Overall management of the Clearinghouse is delegated to the agencies represented by the authors above.

  14. Comparing the Performance of Japan's Earthquake Hazard Maps to Uniform and Randomized Maps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brooks, E. M.; Stein, S. A.; Spencer, B. D.

    2015-12-01

    The devastating 2011 magnitude 9.1 Tohoku earthquake and the resulting shaking and tsunami were much larger than anticipated in earthquake hazard maps. Because this and all other earthquakes that caused ten or more fatalities in Japan since 1979 occurred in places assigned a relatively low hazard, Geller (2011) argued that "all of Japan is at risk from earthquakes, and the present state of seismological science does not allow us to reliably differentiate the risk level in particular geographic areas," so a map showing uniform hazard would be preferable to the existing map. Defenders of the maps countered by arguing that these earthquakes are low-probability events allowed by the maps, which predict the levels of shaking that should expected with a certain probability over a given time. Although such maps are used worldwide in making costly policy decisions for earthquake-resistant construction, how well these maps actually perform is unknown. We explore this hotly-contested issue by comparing how well a 510-year-long record of earthquake shaking in Japan is described by the Japanese national hazard (JNH) maps, uniform maps, and randomized maps. Surprisingly, as measured by the metric implicit in the JNH maps, i.e. that during the chosen time interval the predicted ground motion should be exceeded only at a specific fraction of the sites, both uniform and randomized maps do better than the actual maps. However, using as a metric the squared misfit between maximum observed shaking and that predicted, the JNH maps do better than uniform or randomized maps. These results indicate that the JNH maps are not performing as well as expected, that what factors control map performance is complicated, and that learning more about how maps perform and why would be valuable in making more effective policy.

  15. California Fault Parameters for the National Seismic Hazard Maps and Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities 2007

    Wills, Chris J.; Weldon, Ray J.; Bryant, W.A.

    2008-01-01

    This report describes development of fault parameters for the 2007 update of the National Seismic Hazard Maps and the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP, 2007). These reference parameters are contained within a database intended to be a source of values for use by scientists interested in producing either seismic hazard or deformation models to better understand the current seismic hazards in California. These parameters include descriptions of the geometry and rates of movements of faults throughout the state. These values are intended to provide a starting point for development of more sophisticated deformation models which include known rates of movement on faults as well as geodetic measurements of crustal movement and the rates of movements of the tectonic plates. The values will be used in developing the next generation of the time-independent National Seismic Hazard Maps, and the time-dependant seismic hazard calculations being developed for the WGCEP. Due to the multiple uses of this information, development of these parameters has been coordinated between USGS, CGS and SCEC. SCEC provided the database development and editing tools, in consultation with USGS, Golden. This database has been implemented in Oracle and supports electronic access (e.g., for on-the-fly access). A GUI-based application has also been developed to aid in populating the database. Both the continually updated 'living' version of this database, as well as any locked-down official releases (e.g., used in a published model for calculating earthquake probabilities or seismic shaking hazards) are part of the USGS Quaternary Fault and Fold Database http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/qfaults/ . CGS has been primarily responsible for updating and editing of the fault parameters, with extensive input from USGS and SCEC scientists.

  16. NEIC; the National Earthquake Information Center

    Masse, R.P.; Needham, R.E.

    1989-01-01

    At least 9,500 people were killed, 30,000 were injured and 100,000 were left homeless by this earthquake. According to some unconfirmed reports, the death toll from this earthquake may have been as high as 35,000. this earthquake is estimated to have seriously affected an area of 825,000 square kilometers, caused between 3 and 4 billion dollars in damage, and been felt by 20 million people. 

  17. Combining historical and geomorphological information to investigate earthquake induced landslides

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cardinali, M.; Ferrari, G.; Galli, M.; Guidoboni, E.; Guzzetti, F.

    2003-04-01

    Landslides are caused by many different triggers, including earthquakes. In Italy, a detailed new generation catalogue of information on historical earthquakes for the period 461 B.C to 1997 is available (Catalogue of Strong Italian Earthquakes from 461 B.C. to 1997, ING-SGA 2000). The catalogue lists 548 earthquakes and provides information on a total of about 450 mass-movements triggered by 118 seismic events. The information on earthquake-induced landslides listed in the catalogue was obtained through the careful scrutiny of historical documents and chronicles, but was rarely checked in the field. We report on an attempt to combine the available historical information on landslides caused by earthquakes with standard geomorphological techniques, including the interpretation of aerial photographs and field surveys, to better determine the location, type and distribution of seismically induced historical slope failures. We present four examples in the Central Apennines. The first example describes a rock slide triggered by the 1279 April 30 Umbria-Marche Apennines earthquake (Io = IX) at Serravalle, along the Chienti River (Central Italy). The landslide is the oldest known earthquake-induced slope failure in Italy. The second example describes the location of 2 large landslides triggered by the 1584 September 10 earthquake (Io = IX) at San Piero in Bagno, along the Savio River (Northern Italy). The landslides were subsequently largely modified by mass movements occurred on 1855 making the recognition of the original seismically induced failures difficult, if not impossible. In the third example we present the geographical distribution of the available information on landslide events triggered by 8 earthquakes in Central Valnerina, in the period 1703 to 1979. A comparison with the location of landslides triggered by the September-October 1997 Umbria-Marche earthquake sequence is presented. The fourth example describes the geographical distribution of the available

  18. Making the Handoff from Earthquake Hazard Assessments to Effective Mitigation Measures (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Applegate, D.

    2010-12-01

    This year has witnessed a barrage of large earthquakes worldwide with the resulting damages ranging from inconsequential to truly catastrophic. We cannot predict when earthquakes will strike, but we can build communities that are resilient to strong shaking as well as to secondary hazards such as landslides and liquefaction. The contrasting impacts of the magnitude-7 earthquake that struck Haiti in January and the magnitude-8.8 event that struck Chile in April underscore the difference that mitigation and preparedness can make. In both cases, millions of people were exposed to severe shaking, but deaths in Chile were measured in the hundreds rather than the hundreds of thousands that perished in Haiti. Numerous factors contributed to these disparate outcomes, but the most significant is the presence of strong building codes in Chile and their total absence in Haiti. The financial cost of the Chilean earthquake still represents an unacceptably high percentage of that nation’s gross domestic product, a reminder that life safety is the paramount, but not the only, goal of disaster risk reduction measures. For building codes to be effective, both in terms of lives saved and economic cost, they need to reflect the hazard as accurately as possible. As one of four federal agencies that make up the congressionally mandated National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) develops national seismic hazard maps that form the basis for seismic provisions in model building codes through the Federal Emergency Management Agency and private-sector practitioners. This cooperation is central to NEHRP, which both fosters earthquake research and establishes pathways to translate research results into implementation measures. That translation depends on the ability of hazard-focused scientists to interact and develop mutual trust with risk-focused engineers and planners. Strengthening that interaction is an opportunity for the next generation

  19. East Meets West: An Earthquake in India Helps Hazard Assessment in the Central United States

    ,

    2002-01-01

    Although geographically distant, the State of Gujarat in India bears many geological similarities to the Mississippi Valley in the Central United States. The Mississippi Valley contains the New Madrid seismic zone that, during the winter of 1811-1812, produced the three largest historical earthquakes ever in the continental United States and remains the most seismically active region east of the Rocky Mountains. Large damaging earthquakes are rare in ‘intraplate’ settings like New Madrid and Gujarat, far from the boundaries of the world’s great tectonic plates. Long-lasting evidence left by these earthquakes is subtle (fig. 1). Thus, each intraplate earthquake provides unique opportunities to make huge advances in our ability to assess and understand the hazards posed by such events.

  20. Space-Time Earthquake Rate Models for One-Year Hazard Forecasts in Oklahoma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Llenos, A. L.; Michael, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    The recent one-year seismic hazard assessments for natural and induced seismicity in the central and eastern US (CEUS) (Petersen et al., 2016, 2017) rely on earthquake rate models based on declustered catalogs (i.e., catalogs with foreshocks and aftershocks removed), as is common practice in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. However, standard declustering can remove over 90% of some induced sequences in the CEUS. Some of these earthquakes may still be capable of causing damage or concern (Petersen et al., 2015, 2016). The choices of whether and how to decluster can lead to seismicity rate estimates that vary by up to factors of 10-20 (Llenos and Michael, AGU, 2016). Therefore, in order to improve the accuracy of hazard assessments, we are exploring ways to make forecasts based on full, rather than declustered, catalogs. We focus on Oklahoma, where earthquake rates began increasing in late 2009 mainly in central Oklahoma and ramped up substantially in 2013 with the expansion of seismicity into northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. We develop earthquake rate models using the space-time Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, JASA, 1988; Ogata, AISM, 1998; Zhuang et al., JASA, 2002), which characterizes both the background seismicity rate as well as aftershock triggering. We examine changes in the model parameters over time, focusing particularly on background rate, which reflects earthquakes that are triggered by external driving forces such as fluid injection rather than other earthquakes. After the model parameters are fit to the seismicity data from a given year, forecasts of the full catalog for the following year can then be made using a suite of 100,000 ETAS model simulations based on those parameters. To evaluate this approach, we develop pseudo-prospective yearly forecasts for Oklahoma from 2013-2016 and compare them with the observations using standard Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability tests for consistency.

  1. Apparent stress, fault maturity and seismic hazard for normal-fault earthquakes at subduction zones

    Choy, G.L.; Kirby, S.H.

    2004-01-01

    The behavior of apparent stress for normal-fault earthquakes at subduction zones is derived by examining the apparent stress (?? a = ??Es/Mo, where E s is radiated energy and Mo is seismic moment) of all globally distributed shallow (depth, ?? 1 MPa) are also generally intraslab, but occur where the lithosphere has just begun subduction beneath the overriding plate. They usually occur in cold slabs near trenches where the direction of plate motion across the trench is oblique to the trench axis, or where there are local contortions or geometrical complexities of the plate boundary. Lower ??a (< 1 MPa) is associated with events occurring at the outer rise (OR) complex (between the OR and the trench axis), as well as with intracrustal events occurring just landward of the trench. The average apparent stress of intraslab-normal-fault earthquakes is considerably higher than the average apparent stress of interplate-thrust-fault earthquakes. In turn, the average ?? a of strike-slip earthquakes in intraoceanic environments is considerably higher than that of intraslab-normal-fault earthquakes. The variation of average ??a with focal mechanism and tectonic regime suggests that the level of ?? a is related to fault maturity. Lower stress drops are needed to rupture mature faults such as those found at plate interfaces that have been smoothed by large cumulative displacements (from hundreds to thousands of kilometres). In contrast, immature faults, such as those on which intraslab-normal-fault earthquakes generally occur, are found in cold and intact lithosphere in which total fault displacement has been much less (from hundreds of metres to a few kilometres). Also, faults on which high ??a oceanic strike-slip earthquakes occur are predominantly intraplate or at evolving ends of transforms. At subduction zones, earthquakes occurring on immature faults are likely to be more hazardous as they tend to generate higher amounts of radiated energy per unit of moment than

  2. Meeting of the Central and Eastern U.S. (CEUS) Earthquake Hazards Program October 28–29, 2009

    Tuttle, Martitia; Boyd, Oliver; McCallister, Natasha

    2013-01-01

    On October 28th and 29th, 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program held a meeting of Central and Eastern United States investigators and interested parties in Memphis, Tennessee. The purpose of the meeting was to bring together the Central and Eastern United States earthquake-hazards community to present and discuss recent research results, to promote communication and collaboration, to garner input regarding future research priorities, to inform the community about research opportunities afforded by the 2010–2012 arrival of EarthScope/USArray in the central United States, and to discuss plans for the upcoming bicentennial of the 1811–1812 New Madrid earthquakes. The two-day meeting included several keynote speakers, oral and poster presentations by attendees, and breakout sessions. The meeting is summarized in this report and can be subdivided into four primary sections: (1) summaries of breakout discussion groups; (2) list of meeting participants; (3) submitted abstracts; and (4) slide presentations. The abstracts and slides are included “as submitted” by the meeting participants and have not been subject to any formal peer review process; information contained in these sections reflects the opinions of the presenter at the time of the meeting and does not constitute endorsement by the U.S. Geological Survey.

  3. Seismic hazard in Hawaii: High rate of large earthquakes and probabilistics ground-motion maps

    Klein, F.W.; Frankel, A.D.; Mueller, C.S.; Wesson, R.L.; Okubo, P.G.

    2001-01-01

    The seismic hazard and earthquake occurrence rates in Hawaii are locally as high as that near the most hazardous faults elsewhere in the United States. We have generated maps of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) (at 0.2, 0.3 and 1.0 sec, 5% critical damping) at 2% and 10% exceedance probabilities in 50 years. The highest hazard is on the south side of Hawaii Island, as indicated by the MI 7.0, MS 7.2, and MI 7.9 earthquakes, which occurred there since 1868. Probabilistic values of horizontal PGA (2% in 50 years) on Hawaii's south coast exceed 1.75g. Because some large earthquake aftershock zones and the geometry of flank blocks slipping on subhorizontal decollement faults are known, we use a combination of spatially uniform sources in active flank blocks and smoothed seismicity in other areas to model seismicity. Rates of earthquakes are derived from magnitude distributions of the modem (1959-1997) catalog of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory's seismic network supplemented by the historic (1868-1959) catalog. Modern magnitudes are ML measured on a Wood-Anderson seismograph or MS. Historic magnitudes may add ML measured on a Milne-Shaw or Bosch-Omori seismograph or MI derived from calibrated areas of MM intensities. Active flank areas, which by far account for the highest hazard, are characterized by distributions with b slopes of about 1.0 below M 5.0 and about 0.6 above M 5.0. The kinked distribution means that large earthquake rates would be grossly under-estimated by extrapolating small earthquake rates, and that longer catalogs are essential for estimating or verifying the rates of large earthquakes. Flank earthquakes thus follow a semicharacteristic model, which is a combination of background seismicity and an excess number of large earthquakes. Flank earthquakes are geometrically confined to rupture zones on the volcano flanks by barriers such as rift zones and the seaward edge of the volcano, which may be expressed by a magnitude

  4. EFEHR - the European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk: beyond the web-platform

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Danciu, Laurentiu; Wiemer, Stefan; Haslinger, Florian; Kastli, Philipp; Giardini, Domenico

    2017-04-01

    European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (EEFEHR) represents the sustainable community resource for seismic hazard and risk in Europe. The EFEHR web platform is the main gateway to access data, models and tools as well as provide expertise relevant for assessment of seismic hazard and risk. The main services (databases and web-platform) are hosted at ETH Zurich and operated by the Swiss Seismological Service (Schweizerischer Erdbebendienst SED). EFEHR web-portal (www.efehr.org) collects and displays (i) harmonized datasets necessary for hazard and risk modeling, e.g. seismic catalogues, fault compilations, site amplifications, vulnerabilities, inventories; (ii) extensive seismic hazard products, namely hazard curves, uniform hazard spectra and maps for national and regional assessments. (ii) standardized configuration files for re-computing the regional seismic hazard models; (iv) relevant documentation of harmonized datasets, models and web-services. Today, EFEHR distributes full output of the 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model, ESHM13, as developed within the SHARE project (http://www.share-eu.org/); the latest results of the 2014 Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME14), derived within the EMME Project (www.emme-gem.org); the 2001 Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Project (GSHAP) results and the 2015 updates of the Swiss Seismic Hazard. New datasets related to either seismic hazard or risk will be incorporated as they become available. We present the currents status of the EFEHR platform, with focus on the challenges, summaries of the up-to-date datasets, user experience and feedback, as well as the roadmap to future technological innovation beyond the web-platform development. We also show the new services foreseen to fully integrate with the seismological core services of European Plate Observing System (EPOS).

  5. Earthquake and volcano hazard notices: An economic evaluation of changes in risk perceptions

    Bernknopf, R.L.; Brookshire, D.S.; Thayer, M.A.

    1990-01-01

    Earthquake and volcano hazard notices were issued for the Mammoth Lakes, California area by the U.S. Geological Survey under the authority granted by the Disaster Relief Act of 1974. The effects on investment, recretion visitation, and risk perceptionsare explored. The hazard notices did not affect recreation visitation, although investment was affected. A perceived loss in the market value of homes was documented. Risk perceptions were altered for property owners. Communication of the probability of an event over time would enhance hazard notices as a policy instrument and would mitigate unnecessary market perturbations. ?? 1990.

  6. The Cascadia Subduction Zone and related subduction systems: seismic structure, intraslab earthquakes and processes, and earthquake hazards

    Kirby, Stephen H.; Wang, Kelin; Dunlop, Susan

    2002-01-01

    The following report is the principal product of an international workshop titled “Intraslab Earthquakes in the Cascadia Subduction System: Science and Hazards” and was sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey, the Geological Survey of Canada and the University of Victoria. This meeting was held at the University of Victoria’s Dunsmuir Lodge, Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada on September 18–21, 2000 and brought 46 participants from the U.S., Canada, Latin America and Japan. This gathering was organized to bring together active research investigators in the science of subduction and intraslab earthquake hazards. Special emphasis was given to “warm-slab” subduction systems, i.e., those systems involving young oceanic lithosphere subducting at moderate to slow rates, such as the Cascadia system in the U.S. and Canada, and the Nankai system in Japan. All the speakers and poster presenters provided abstracts of their presentations that were a made available in an abstract volume at the workshop. Most of the authors subsequently provided full articles or extended abstracts for this volume on the topics that they discussed at the workshop. Where updated versions were not provided, the original workshop abstracts have been included. By organizing this workshop and assembling this volume, our aim is to provide a global perspective on the science of warm-slab subduction, to thereby advance our understanding of internal slab processes and to use this understanding to improve appraisals of the hazards associated with large intraslab earthquakes in the Cascadia system. These events have been the most frequent and damaging earthquakes in western Washington State over the last century. As if to underscore this fact, just six months after this workshop was held, the magnitude 6.8 Nisqually earthquake occurred on February 28th, 2001 at a depth of about 55 km in the Juan de Fuca slab beneath the southern Puget Sound region of western Washington. The Governor

  7. Providing Seismotectonic Information to the Public Through Continuously Updated National Earthquake Information Center Products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernardino, M. J.; Hayes, G. P.; Dannemann, F.; Benz, H.

    2012-12-01

    One of the main missions of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) is the dissemination of information to national and international agencies, scientists, and the general public through various products such as ShakeMap and earthquake summary posters. During the summer of 2012, undergraduate and graduate student interns helped to update and improve our series of regional seismicity posters and regional tectonic summaries. The "Seismicity of the Earth (1900-2007)" poster placed over a century's worth of global seismicity data in the context of plate tectonics, highlighting regions that have experienced great (M+8.0) earthquakes, and the tectonic settings of those events. This endeavor became the basis for a series of more regionalized seismotectonic posters that focus on major subduction zones and their associated seismicity, including the Aleutian and Caribbean arcs. The first round of these posters were inclusive of events through 2007, and were made with the intent of being continually updated. Each poster includes a regional tectonic summary, a seismic hazard map, focal depth cross-sections, and a main map that illustrates the following: the main subduction zone and other physiographic features, seismicity, and rupture zones of historic great earthquakes. Many of the existing regional seismotectonic posters have been updated and new posters highlighting regions of current seismological interest have been created, including the Sumatra and Java arcs, the Middle East region and the Himalayas (all of which are currently in review). These new editions include updated lists of earthquakes, expanded tectonic summaries, updated relative plate motion vectors, and major crustal faults. These posters thus improve upon previous editions that included only brief tectonic discussions of the most prominent features and historic earthquakes, and which did not systematically represent non-plate boundary faults. Regional tectonic

  8. Hazardous materials information hotline using System 2000

    SciT

    Brower, J.E.; Fuchel, K.

    1984-04-30

    The Center for Assessment of Chemical and Physical Hazards (CACPH) at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has developed a computer hotline service for the Department of Energy (DOE) and its contractors. This service provides access to health and safety information for over 800 chemicals and hazardous materials. The data base uses System 2000 on a CDC 6600 and provides information on the chemical name and its synonyms, 17 categories of health and safety information, composition of chemical mixtures, categories of chemicals, use and hazards, and physical, chemical and toxicity attributes. In order to make this information available to people unfamiliar withmore » System 2000, a user-friendly interface was developed using a Fortran PLEX Program. 1 reference, 1 figure.« less

  9. 2016 one-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes

    Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles S.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

    2016-03-28

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has produced a 1-year seismic hazard forecast for 2016 for the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS) that includes contributions from both induced and natural earthquakes. The model assumes that earthquake rates calculated from several different time windows will remain relatively stationary and can be used to forecast earthquake hazard and damage intensity for the year 2016. This assessment is the first step in developing an operational earthquake forecast for the CEUS, and the analysis could be revised with updated seismicity and model parameters. Consensus input models consider alternative earthquake catalog durations, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground motion estimates, and represent uncertainties in earthquake occurrence and diversity of opinion in the science community. Ground shaking seismic hazard for 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year reaches 0.6 g (as a fraction of standard gravity [g]) in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, and about 0.2 g in the Raton Basin of Colorado and New Mexico, in central Arkansas, and in north-central Texas near Dallas. Near some areas of active induced earthquakes, hazard is higher than in the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NHSM) by more than a factor of 3; the 2014 NHSM did not consider induced earthquakes. In some areas, previously observed induced earthquakes have stopped, so the seismic hazard reverts back to the 2014 NSHM. Increased seismic activity, whether defined as induced or natural, produces high hazard. Conversion of ground shaking to seismic intensity indicates that some places in Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and Arkansas may experience damage if the induced seismicity continues unabated. The chance of having Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) VI or greater (damaging earthquake shaking) is 5–12 percent per year in north-central Oklahoma and southern Kansas, similar to the chance of damage caused by natural earthquakes

  10. Miscellaneous High-Resolution Seismic Imaging Investigations in Salt Lake and Utah Valleys for Earthquake Hazards

    Stephenson, W.J.; Williams, R.A.; Odum, J.K.; Worley, D.M.

    2007-01-01

    Introduction In support of earthquake hazards and ground motion studies by researchers at the Utah Geological Survey, University of Utah, Utah State University, Brigham Young University, and San Diego State University, the U.S. Geological Survey Geologic Hazards Team Intermountain West Project conducted three high-resolution seismic imaging investigations along the Wasatch Front between September 2003 and September 2005. These three investigations include: (1) a proof-of-concept P-wave minivib reflection imaging profile in south-central Salt Lake Valley, (2) a series of seven deep (as deep as 400 m) S-wave reflection/refraction soundings using an S-wave minivib in both Salt Lake and Utah Valleys, and (3) an S-wave (and P-wave) investigation to 30 m at four sites in Utah Valley and at two previously investigated S-wave (Vs) minivib sites. In addition, we present results from a previously unpublished downhole S-wave investigation conducted at four sites in Utah Valley. The locations for each of these investigations are shown in figure 1. Coordinates for the investigation sites are listed in Table 1. With the exception of the P-wave common mid-point (CMP) reflection profile, whose end points are listed, these coordinates are for the midpoint of each velocity sounding. Vs30 and Vs100, also shown in Table 1, are defined as the average shear-wave velocities to depths of 30 and 100 m, respectively, and details of their calculation can be found in Stephenson and others (2005). The information from these studies will be incorporated into components of the urban hazards maps along the Wasatch Front being developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, Utah Geological Survey, and numerous collaborating research institutions.

  11. Earthquake Rate Models for Evolving Induced Seismicity Hazard in the Central and Eastern US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Llenos, A. L.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Michael, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Injection-induced earthquake rates can vary rapidly in space and time, which presents significant challenges to traditional probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodologies that are based on a time-independent model of mainshock occurrence. To help society cope with rapidly evolving seismicity, the USGS is developing one-year hazard models for areas of induced seismicity in the central and eastern US to forecast the shaking due to all earthquakes, including aftershocks which are generally omitted from hazards assessments (Petersen et al., 2015). However, the spatial and temporal variability of the earthquake rates make them difficult to forecast even on time-scales as short as one year. An initial approach is to use the previous year's seismicity rate to forecast the next year's seismicity rate. However, in places such as northern Oklahoma the rates vary so rapidly over time that a simple linear extrapolation does not accurately forecast the future, even when the variability in the rates is modeled with simulations based on an Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, JASA, 1988) to account for earthquake clustering. Instead of relying on a fixed time period for rate estimation, we explore another way to determine when the earthquake rate should be updated. This approach could also objectively identify new areas where the induced seismicity hazard model should be applied. We will estimate the background seismicity rate by optimizing a single set of ETAS aftershock triggering parameters across the most active induced seismicity zones -- Oklahoma, Guy-Greenbrier, the Raton Basin, and the Azle-Dallas-Fort Worth area -- with individual background rate parameters in each zone. The full seismicity rate, with uncertainties, can then be estimated using ETAS simulations and changes in rate can be detected by applying change point analysis in ETAS transformed time with methods already developed for Poisson processes.

  12. Dynamic evaluation of seismic hazard and risks based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, V. G.; Nekrasova, A.

    2016-12-01

    We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A + B•(6 - M) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L, A characterizes the average annual rate of strong (M = 6) earthquakes, B determines the balance between magnitude ranges, and C estimates the fractal dimension of seismic locus in projection to the Earth surface. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to assess, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity or paleo data), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures. The hazard maps for a given territory change dramatically, when the methodology is applied to a certain size moving time window, e.g. about a decade long for an intermediate-term regional assessment or exponentially increasing intervals for a daily local strong aftershock forecasting. The of dynamical seismic hazard and risks assessment is illustrated by applications to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea and the two-year series of aftershocks of the 11 October 2008 Kurchaloy, Chechnya earthquake which case-history appears to be encouraging for further systematic testing as potential short-term forecasting tool.

  13. St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project - December 2008-June 2009 Progress Report

    Williams, R.A.; Bauer, R.A.; Boyd, O.S.; Chung, J.; Cramer, C.H.; Gaunt, D.A.; Hempen, G.L.; Hoffman, D.; McCallister, N.S.; Prewett, J.L.; Rogers, J.D.; Steckel, P.J.; Watkins, C.M.

    2009-01-01

    This report summarizes the mission, the project background, the participants, and the progress of the St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project (SLAEHMP) for the period from December 2008 through June 2009. During this period, the SLAEHMP held five conference calls and two face-to-face meetings in St. Louis, participated in several earthquake awareness public meetings, held one outreach field trip for the business and government community, collected and compiled new borehole and digital elevation data from partners, and published a project summary.

  14. Next-Level ShakeZoning for Earthquake Hazard Definition in Nevada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Louie, J. N.; Savran, W. H.; Flinchum, B. A.; Dudley, C.; Prina, N.; Pullammanappallil, S.; Pancha, A.

    2011-12-01

    We are developing "Next-Level ShakeZoning" procedures tailored for defining earthquake hazards in Nevada. The current Federally sponsored tools- the USGS hazard maps and ShakeMap, and FEMA HAZUS- were developed as statistical summaries to match earthquake data from California, Japan, and Taiwan. The 2008 Wells and Mogul events in Nevada showed in particular that the generalized statistical approach taken by ShakeMap cannot match actual data on shaking from earthquakes in the Intermountain West, even to first order. Next-Level ShakeZoning relies on physics and geology to define earthquake shaking hazards, rather than statistics. It follows theoretical and computational developments made over the past 20 years, to capitalize on detailed and specific local data sets to more accurately model the propagation and amplification of earthquake waves through the multiple geologic basins of the Intermountain West. Excellent new data sets are now available for Las Vegas Valley. Clark County, Nevada has completed the nation's very first effort to map earthquake hazard class systematically through an entire urban area using Optim's SeisOpt° ReMi technique, which was adapted for large-scale data collection. Using the new Parcel Map in computing shaking in the Valley for scenario earthquakes is crucial for obtaining realistic predictions of ground motions. In an educational element of the project, a dozen undergraduate students have been computing 50 separate earthquake scenarios affecting Las Vegas Valley, using the Next-Level ShakeZoning process. Despite affecting only the upper 30 meters, the Vs30 geotechnical shear-velocity from the Parcel Map shows clear effects on 3-d shaking predictions computed so far at frequencies from 0.1 Hz up to 1.0 Hz. The effect of the Parcel Map on even the 0.1-Hz waves is prominent even with the large mismatch of wavelength to geotechnical depths. Amplifications and de-amplifications affected by the Parcel Map exceed a factor of two, and are

  15. Seismic hazard and risks based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir; Nekrasova, Anastasia

    2014-05-01

    Losses from natural disasters continue to increase mainly due to poor understanding by majority of scientific community, decision makers and public, the three components of Risk, i.e., Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Contemporary Science is responsible for not coping with challenging changes of Exposures and their Vulnerability inflicted by growing population, its concentration, etc., which result in a steady increase of Losses from Natural Hazards. Scientists owe to Society for lack of knowledge, education, and communication. In fact, Contemporary Science can do a better job in disclosing Natural Hazards, assessing Risks, and delivering such knowledge in advance catastrophic events. Any kind of risk estimates R(g) at location g results from a convolution of the natural hazard H(g) with the exposed object under consideration O(g) along with its vulnerability V(O(g)). Note that g could be a point, or a line, or a cell on or under the Earth surface and that distribution of hazards, as well as objects of concern and their vulnerability, could be time-dependent. There exist many different risk estimates even if the same object of risk and the same hazard are involved. It may result from the different laws of convolution, as well as from different kinds of vulnerability of an object of risk under specific environments and conditions. Both conceptual issues must be resolved in a multidisciplinary problem oriented research performed by specialists in the fields of hazard, objects of risk, and object vulnerability, i.e. specialists in earthquake engineering, social sciences and economics. To illustrate this general concept, we first construct seismic hazard assessment maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE). The parameters A, B, and C of USLE, i.e. log N(M,L) = A - B•(M-6) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an area of linear size L, are used to estimate the expected maximum

  16. Cruise report for A1-98-SC southern California Earthquake Hazards Project

    Normark, William R.; Bohannon, Robert G.; Sliter, Ray; Dunhill, Gita; Scholl, David W.; Laursen, Jane; Reid, Jane A.; Holton, David

    1999-01-01

    The focus of the Southern California Earthquake Hazards project, within the Western Region Coastal and Marine Geology team (WRCMG), is to identify the landslide and earthquake hazards and related ground-deformation processes that can potentially impact the social and economic well-being of the inhabitants of the Southern California coastal region, the most populated urban corridor along the U.S. Pacific margin. The primary objective is to help mitigate the earthquake hazards for the Southern California region by improving our understanding of how deformation is distributed (spatially and temporally) in the offshore with respect to the onshore region. To meet this overall objective, we are investigating the distribution, character, and relative intensity of active (i.e., primarily Holocene) deformation within the basins and along the shelf adjacent to the most highly populated areas (see Fig. 1). In addition, the project will examine the Pliocene-Pleistocene record of how this deformation has shifted in space and time. The results of this study should improve our knowledge of shifting deformation for both the long-term (105 to several 106 yr) and short-term (<50 ky) time frames and enable us to identify actively deforming structures that may constitute current significant seismic hazards.

  17. Earthquake Hazard in the New Madrid Seismic Zone Remains a Concern

    Frankel, A.D.; Applegate, D.; Tuttle, M.P.; Williams, R.A.

    2009-01-01

    There is broad agreement in the scientific community that a continuing concern exists for a major destructive earthquake in the New Madrid seismic zone. Many structures in Memphis, Tenn., St. Louis, Mo., and other communities in the central Mississippi River Valley region are vulnerable and at risk from severe ground shaking. This assessment is based on decades of research on New Madrid earthquakes and related phenomena by dozens of Federal, university, State, and consulting earth scientists. Considerable interest has developed recently from media reports that the New Madrid seismic zone may be shutting down. These reports stem from published research using global positioning system (GPS) instruments with results of geodetic measurements of strain in the Earth's crust. Because of a lack of measurable strain at the surface in some areas of the seismic zone over the past 14 years, arguments have been advanced that there is no buildup of stress at depth within the New Madrid seismic zone and that the zone may no longer pose a significant hazard. As part of the consensus-building process used to develop the national seismic hazard maps, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) convened a workshop of experts in 2006 to evaluate the latest findings in earthquake hazards in the Eastern United States. These experts considered the GPS data from New Madrid available at that time that also showed little to no ground movement at the surface. The experts did not find the GPS data to be a convincing reason to lower the assessment of earthquake hazard in the New Madrid region, especially in light of the many other types of data that are used to construct the hazard assessment, several of which are described here.

  18. Great earthquakes along the Western United States continental margin: implications for hazards, stratigraphy and turbidite lithology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nelson, C. H.; Gutiérrez Pastor, J.; Goldfinger, C.; Escutia, C.

    2012-11-01

    We summarize the importance of great earthquakes (Mw ≳ 8) for hazards, stratigraphy of basin floors, and turbidite lithology along the active tectonic continental margins of the Cascadia subduction zone and the northern San Andreas Transform Fault by utilizing studies of swath bathymetry visual core descriptions, grain size analysis, X-ray radiographs and physical properties. Recurrence times of Holocene turbidites as proxies for earthquakes on the Cascadia and northern California margins are analyzed using two methods: (1) radiometric dating (14C method), and (2) relative dating, using hemipelagic sediment thickness and sedimentation rates (H method). The H method provides (1) the best estimate of minimum recurrence times, which are the most important for seismic hazards risk analysis, and (2) the most complete dataset of recurrence times, which shows a normal distribution pattern for paleoseismic turbidite frequencies. We observe that, on these tectonically active continental margins, during the sea-level highstand of Holocene time, triggering of turbidity currents is controlled dominantly by earthquakes, and paleoseismic turbidites have an average recurrence time of ~550 yr in northern Cascadia Basin and ~200 yr along northern California margin. The minimum recurrence times for great earthquakes are approximately 300 yr for the Cascadia subduction zone and 130 yr for the northern San Andreas Fault, which indicates both fault systems are in (Cascadia) or very close (San Andreas) to the early window for another great earthquake. On active tectonic margins with great earthquakes, the volumes of mass transport deposits (MTDs) are limited on basin floors along the margins. The maximum run-out distances of MTD sheets across abyssal-basin floors along active margins are an order of magnitude less (~100 km) than on passive margins (~1000 km). The great earthquakes along the Cascadia and northern California margins cause seismic strengthening of the sediment, which

  19. New seafloor map of the Puerto Rico trench helps assess earthquake and tsunami hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brink, Uri ten; Danforth, William; Polloni, Christopher; Andrews, Brian; Llanes, Pilar; Smith, Shepard; Parker, Eugene; Uozumi, Toshihiko

    2004-09-01

    The Puerto Rico Trench, the deepest part of the Atlantic Ocean, is located where the North American (NOAM) plate is subducting under the Caribbean plate (Figure l). The trench region may pose significant seismic and tsunami hazards to Puerto Rico and the U.S.Virgin Islands, where 4 million U.S. citizens reside. Widespread damage in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola from an earthquake in 1787 was estimated to be the result of a magnitude 8 earthquake north of the islands [McCann et al., 2004]. A tsunami killed 40 people in NW Puerto Rico following a magnitude 7.3 earthquake in 1918 [Mercado and McCann, 1998]. Large landslide escarpments have been mapped on the seafloor north of Puerto Rico [Mercado et al., 2002; Schwab et al., 1991],although their ages are unknown.

  20. New seafloor map of the Puerto Rico Trench helps assess earthquake and tsunami hazards

    ten Brink, Uri S.; Danforth, William; Polloni, Christopher; Andrews, Brian D.; Llanes Estrada, Pilar; Smith, Shepard; Parker, Eugene; Uozumi, Toshihiko

    2004-01-01

    The Puerto Rico Trench, the deepest part of the Atlantic Ocean, is located where the North American (NOAM) plate is subducting under the Caribbean plate (Figure l). The trench region may pose significant seismic and tsunami hazards to Puerto Rico and the U.S.Virgin Islands, where 4 million U.S. citizens reside. Widespread damage in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola from an earthquake in 1787 was estimated to be the result of a magnitude 8 earthquake north of the islands [McCann et al., 2004]. A tsunami killed 40 people in NW Puerto Rico following a magnitude 7.3 earthquake in 1918 [Mercado and McCann, 1998]. Large landslide escarpments have been mapped on the seafloor north of Puerto Rico [Mercado et al., 2002; Schwab et al., 1991],although their ages are unknown.

  1. Disaggregated seismic hazard and the elastic input energy spectrum: An approach to design earthquake selection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chapman, Martin Colby

    1998-12-01

    The design earthquake selection problem is fundamentally probabilistic. Disaggregation of a probabilistic model of the seismic hazard offers a rational and objective approach that can identify the most likely earthquake scenario(s) contributing to hazard. An ensemble of time series can be selected on the basis of the modal earthquakes derived from the disaggregation. This gives a useful time-domain realization of the seismic hazard, to the extent that a single motion parameter captures the important time-domain characteristics. A possible limitation to this approach arises because most currently available motion prediction models for peak ground motion or oscillator response are essentially independent of duration, and modal events derived using the peak motions for the analysis may not represent the optimal characterization of the hazard. The elastic input energy spectrum is an alternative to the elastic response spectrum for these types of analyses. The input energy combines the elements of amplitude and duration into a single parameter description of the ground motion that can be readily incorporated into standard probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methodology. This use of the elastic input energy spectrum is examined. Regression analysis is performed using strong motion data from Western North America and consistent data processing procedures for both the absolute input energy equivalent velocity, (Vsbea), and the elastic pseudo-relative velocity response (PSV) in the frequency range 0.5 to 10 Hz. The results show that the two parameters can be successfully fit with identical functional forms. The dependence of Vsbea and PSV upon (NEHRP) site classification is virtually identical. The variance of Vsbea is uniformly less than that of PSV, indicating that Vsbea can be predicted with slightly less uncertainty as a function of magnitude, distance and site classification. The effects of site class are important at frequencies less than a few Hertz. The regression

  2. Preparation of Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue and Tsunami Hazard Curves in Marmara Sea using Monte Carlo Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bayraktar, Başak; Özer Sözdinler, Ceren; Necmioǧlu, Öcal; Meral Özel, Nurcan

    2017-04-01

    The Marmara Sea and its surrounding is one of the most populated areas in Turkey. Many densely populated cities, such as megacity Istanbul with a population of more than 14 million, a great number of industrial facilities in largest capacity and potential, refineries, ports and harbors are located along the coasts of Marmara Sea. The region is highly seismically active. There has been a wide range of studies in this region regarding the fault mechanisms, seismic activities, earthquakes and triggered tsunamis in the Sea of Marmara. The historical documents reveal that the region has been experienced many earthquakes and tsunamis in the past. According to Altinok et al. (2011), 35 tsunami events happened in Marmara Sea between BC 330 and 1999. As earthquakes are expected in Marmara Sea with the break of segments of North Anatolian Fault (NAF) in the future, the region should be investigated in terms of the possibility of tsunamis by the occurrence of earthquakes in specific return periods. This study aims to make probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis in Marmara Sea. For this purpose, the possible sources of tsunami scenarios are specified by compiling the earthquake catalogues, historical records and scientific studies conducted in the region. After compiling all this data, a synthetic earthquake and tsunami catalogue are prepared using Monte Carlo simulations. For specific return periods, the possible epicenters, rupture lengths, widths and displacements are determined with Monte Carlo simulations assuming the angles of fault segments as deterministic. For each earthquake of synthetic catalogue, the tsunami wave heights will be calculated at specific locations along Marmara Sea. As a further objective, this study will determine the tsunami hazard curves for specific locations in Marmara Sea including the tsunami wave heights and their probability of exceedance. This work is supported by SATREPS-MarDim Project (Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in the

  3. Subduction zone and crustal dynamics of western Washington; a tectonic model for earthquake hazards evaluation

    Stanley, Dal; Villaseñor, Antonio; Benz, Harley

    1999-01-01

    The Cascadia subduction zone is extremely complex in the western Washington region, involving local deformation of the subducting Juan de Fuca plate and complicated block structures in the crust. It has been postulated that the Cascadia subduction zone could be the source for a large thrust earthquake, possibly as large as M9.0. Large intraplate earthquakes from within the subducting Juan de Fuca plate beneath the Puget Sound region have accounted for most of the energy release in this century and future such large earthquakes are expected. Added to these possible hazards is clear evidence for strong crustal deformation events in the Puget Sound region near faults such as the Seattle fault, which passes through the southern Seattle metropolitan area. In order to understand the nature of these individual earthquake sources and their possible interrelationship, we have conducted an extensive seismotectonic study of the region. We have employed P-wave velocity models developed using local earthquake tomography as a key tool in this research. Other information utilized includes geological, paleoseismic, gravity, magnetic, magnetotelluric, deformation, seismicity, focal mechanism and geodetic data. Neotectonic concepts were tested and augmented through use of anelastic (creep) deformation models based on thin-plate, finite-element techniques developed by Peter Bird, UCLA. These programs model anelastic strain rate, stress, and velocity fields for given rheological parameters, variable crust and lithosphere thicknesses, heat flow, and elevation. Known faults in western Washington and the main Cascadia subduction thrust were incorporated in the modeling process. Significant results from the velocity models include delineation of a previously studied arch in the subducting Juan de Fuca plate. The axis of the arch is oriented in the direction of current subduction and asymmetrically deformed due to the effects of a northern buttress mapped in the velocity models. This

  4. Probabilistic liquefaction hazard analysis at liquefied sites of 1956 Dunaharaszti earthquake, in Hungary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Győri, Erzsébet; Gráczer, Zoltán; Tóth, László; Bán, Zoltán; Horváth, Tibor

    2017-04-01

    Liquefaction potential evaluations are generally made to assess the hazard from specific scenario earthquakes. These evaluations may estimate the potential in a binary fashion (yes/no), define a factor of safety or predict the probability of liquefaction given a scenario event. Usually the level of ground shaking is obtained from the results of PSHA. Although it is determined probabilistically, a single level of ground shaking is selected and used within the liquefaction potential evaluation. In contrary, the fully probabilistic liquefaction potential assessment methods provide a complete picture of liquefaction hazard, namely taking into account the joint probability distribution of PGA and magnitude of earthquake scenarios; both of which are key inputs in the stress-based simplified methods. Kramer and Mayfield (2007) has developed a fully probabilistic liquefaction potential evaluation method using a performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework. The results of the procedure are the direct estimate of the return period of liquefaction and the liquefaction hazard curves in function of depth. The method combines the disaggregation matrices computed for different exceedance frequencies during probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with one of the recent models for the conditional probability of liquefaction. We have developed a software for the assessment of performance-based liquefaction triggering on the basis of Kramer and Mayfield method. Originally the SPT based probabilistic method of Cetin et al. (2004) was built-in into the procedure of Kramer and Mayfield to compute the conditional probability however there is no professional consensus about its applicability. Therefore we have included not only Cetin's method but Idriss and Boulanger (2012) SPT based moreover Boulanger and Idriss (2014) CPT based procedures into our computer program. In 1956, a damaging earthquake of magnitude 5.6 occurred in Dunaharaszti, in Hungary. Its epicenter was located

  5. Seismic hazard assessment based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: the Greater Caucasus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nekrasova, A.; Kossobokov, V. G.

    2015-12-01

    Losses from natural disasters continue to increase mainly due to poor understanding by majority of scientific community, decision makers and public, the three components of Risk, i.e., Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Contemporary Science is responsible for not coping with challenging changes of Exposures and their Vulnerability inflicted by growing population, its concentration, etc., which result in a steady increase of Losses from Natural Hazards. Scientists owe to Society for lack of knowledge, education, and communication. In fact, Contemporary Science can do a better job in disclosing Natural Hazards, assessing Risks, and delivering such knowledge in advance catastrophic events. We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A - B•(M-6) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to estimate, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters including macro-seismic intensity. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks (e.g., those based on the density of exposed population). The methodology of seismic hazard and risks assessment based on USLE is illustrated by application to the seismic region of Greater Caucasus.

  6. The U.S. Geological Survey's Earthquake Summary Posters: A GIS-based Education and Communication Product for Presenting Consolidated Post-Earthquake Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tarr, A.; Benz, H.; Earle, P.; Wald, D. J.

    2003-12-01

    Earthquake Summary Posters (ESP's), a new product of the U.S. Geological Survey's Earthquake Program, are produced at the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) in Golden. The posters consist of rapidly-generated, GIS-based maps made following significant earthquakes worldwide (typically M>7.0, or events of significant media/public interest). ESP's consolidate, in an attractive map format, a large-scale epicentral map, several auxiliary regional overviews (showing tectonic and geographical setting, seismic history, seismic hazard, and earthquake effects), depth sections (as appropriate), a table of regional earthquakes, and a summary of the reional seismic history and tectonics. The immediate availability of the latter text summaries has been facilitated by the availability of Rapid, Accurate Tectonic Summaries (RATS) produced at NEIC and posted on the web following significant events. The rapid production of ESP's has been facilitated by generating, during the past two years, regional templates for tectonic areas around the world by organizing the necessary spatially-referenced data for the map base and the thematic layers that overlay the base. These GIS databases enable scripted Arc Macro Language (AML) production of routine elements of the maps (for example background seismicity, tectonic features, and probabilistic hazard maps). However, other elements of the maps are earthquake-specific and are produced manually to reflect new data, earthquake effects, and special characteristics. By the end of this year, approximately 85% of the Earth's seismic zones will be covered for generating future ESP's. During the past year, 13 posters were completed, comparable to the yearly average expected for significant earthquakes. Each year, all ESPs will be published on a CD in PDF format as an Open-File Report. In addition, each is linked to the special event earthquake pages on the USGS Earthquake Program web site (http://earthquake.usgs.gov). Although three formats

  7. Large Historical Earthquakes and Tsunami Hazards in the Western Mediterranean: Source Characteristics and Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harbi, Assia; Meghraoui, Mustapha; Belabbes, Samir; Maouche, Said

    2010-05-01

    The western Mediterranean region was the site of numerous large earthquakes in the past. Most of these earthquakes are located at the East-West trending Africa-Eurasia plate boundary and along the coastline of North Africa. The most recent recorded tsunamigenic earthquake occurred in 2003 at Zemmouri-Boumerdes (Mw 6.8) and generated ~ 2-m-high tsunami wave. The destructive wave affected the Balearic Islands and Almeria in southern Spain and Carloforte in southern Sardinia (Italy). The earthquake provided a unique opportunity to gather instrumental records of seismic waves and tide gauges in the western Mediterranean. A database that includes a historical catalogue of main events, seismic sources and related fault parameters was prepared in order to assess the tsunami hazard of this region. In addition to the analysis of the 2003 records, we study the 1790 Oran and 1856 Jijel historical tsunamigenic earthquakes (Io = IX and X, respectively) that provide detailed observations on the heights and extension of past tsunamis and damage in coastal zones. We performed the modelling of wave propagation using NAMI-DANCE code and tested different fault sources from synthetic tide gauges. We observe that the characteristics of seismic sources control the size and directivity of tsunami wave propagation on both northern and southern coasts of the western Mediterranean.

  8. The 1945 Balochistan earthquake and probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran subduction zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Höchner, Andreas; Babeyko, Andrey; Zamora, Natalia

    2014-05-01

    Iran and Pakistan are countries quite frequently affected by destructive earthquakes. For instance, the magnitude 6.6 Bam earthquake in 2003 in Iran with about 30'000 casualties, or the magnitude 7.6 Kashmir earthquake 2005 in Pakistan with about 80'000 casualties. Both events took place inland, but in terms of magnitude, even significantly larger events can be expected to happen offshore, at the Makran subduction zone. This small subduction zone is seismically rather quiescent, but a tsunami caused by a thrust event in 1945 (Balochistan earthquake) led to about 4000 casualties. Nowadays, the coastal regions are more densely populated and vulnerable to similar events. Additionally, some recent publications raise the question of the possiblity of rare but huge magnitude 9 events at the Makran subduction zone. We first model the historic Balochistan event and its effect in terms of coastal wave heights, and then generate various synthetic earthquake and tsunami catalogs including the possibility of large events in order to asses the tsunami hazard at the affected coastal regions. Finally, we show how an effective tsunami early warning could be achieved by the use of an array of high-precision real-time GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) receivers along the coast.

  9. FORESHOCKS AND TIME-DEPENDENT EARTHQUAKE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

    Jones, Lucile M.

    1985-01-01

    The probability that an earthquake in southern California (M greater than equivalent to 3. 0) will be followed by an earthquake of larger magnitude within 5 days and 10 km (i. e. , will be a foreshock) is 6 plus or minus 0. 5 per cent (1 S. D. ), and is not significantly dependent on the magnitude of the possible foreshock between M equals 3 and M equals 5. The probability that an earthquake will be followed by an M greater than equivalent to 5. 0 main shock, however, increases with magnitude of the foreshock from less than 1 per cent at M greater than equivalent to 3 to 6. 5 plus or minus 2. 5 per cent (1 S. D. ) at M greater than equivalent to 5. The main shock will most likely occur in the first hour after the foreshock, and the probability that a main shock will occur in the first hour decreases with elapsed time from the occurrence of the possible foreshock by approximately the inverse of time. Thus, the occurrence of an earthquake of M greater than equivalent to 3. 0 in southern California increases the earthquake hazard within a small space-time window several orders of magnitude above the normal background level.

  10. Research on Collection of Earthquake Disaster Information from the Crowd

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nian, Z.

    2017-12-01

    In China, the assessment of the earthquake disasters information is mainly based on the inversion of the seismic source mechanism and the pre-calculated population data model, the real information of the earthquake disaster is usually collected through the government departments, the accuracy and the speed need to be improved. And in a massive earthquake like the one in Mexico, the telecommunications infrastructure on ground were damaged , the quake zone was difficult to observe by satellites and aircraft in the bad weather. Only a bit of information was sent out through maritime satellite of other country. Thus, the timely and effective development of disaster relief was seriously affected. Now Chinese communication satellites have been orbiting, people don't only rely on the ground telecom base station to keep communication with the outside world, to open the web page,to land social networking sites, to release information, to transmit images and videoes. This paper will establish an earthquake information collection system which public can participate. Through popular social platform and other information sources, the public can participate in the collection of earthquake information, and supply quake zone information, including photos, video, etc.,especially those information made by unmanned aerial vehicle (uav) after earthqake, the public can use the computer, potable terminals, or mobile text message to participate in the earthquake information collection. In the system, the information will be divided into earthquake zone basic information, earthquake disaster reduction information, earthquake site information, post-disaster reconstruction information etc. and they will been processed and put into database. The quality of data is analyzed by multi-source information, and is controlled by local public opinion on them to supplement the data collected by government departments timely and implement the calibration of simulation results ,which will better guide

  11. The Development of an Earthquake Preparedness Plan for a Child Care Center in a Geologically Hazardous Region.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wokurka, Linda

    The director of a child care center at a community college in California developed an earthquake preparedness plan for the center which met state and local requirements for earthquake preparedness at schools. The plan consisted of: (1) the identification and reduction of nonstructural hazards in classrooms, office, and staff rooms; (2) storage of…

  12. Earthquake shaking hazard estimates and exposure changes in the conterminous United States

    Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Petersen, Mark D.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Leith, William S.

    2015-01-01

    A large portion of the population of the United States lives in areas vulnerable to earthquake hazards. This investigation aims to quantify population and infrastructure exposure within the conterminous U.S. that are subjected to varying levels of earthquake ground motions by systematically analyzing the last four cycles of the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Models (published in 1996, 2002, 2008 and 2014). Using the 2013 LandScan data, we estimate the numbers of people who are exposed to potentially damaging ground motions (peak ground accelerations at or above 0.1g). At least 28 million (~9% of the total population) may experience 0.1g level of shaking at relatively frequent intervals (annual rate of 1 in 72 years or 50% probability of exceedance (PE) in 50 years), 57 million (~18% of the total population) may experience this level of shaking at moderately frequent intervals (annual rate of 1 in 475 years or 10% PE in 50 years), and 143 million (~46% of the total population) may experience such shaking at relatively infrequent intervals (annual rate of 1 in 2,475 years or 2% PE in 50 years). We also show that there is a significant number of critical infrastructure facilities located in high earthquake-hazard areas (Modified Mercalli Intensity ≥ VII with moderately frequent recurrence interval).

  13. Active tectonics of the Seattle fault and central Puget sound, Washington - Implications for earthquake hazards

    Johnson, S.Y.; Dadisman, S.V.; Childs, J. R.; Stanley, W.D.

    1999-01-01

    We use an extensive network of marine high-resolution and conventional industry seismic-reflection data to constrain the location, shallow structure, and displacement rates of the Seattle fault zone and crosscutting high-angle faults in the Puget Lowland of western Washington. Analysis of seismic profiles extending 50 km across the Puget Lowland from Lake Washington to Hood Canal indicates that the west-trending Seattle fault comprises a broad (4-6 km) zone of three or more south-dipping reverse faults. Quaternary sediment has been folded and faulted along all faults in the zone but is clearly most pronounced along fault A, the northernmost fault, which forms the boundary between the Seattle uplift and Seattle basin. Analysis of growth strata deposited across fault A indicate minimum Quaternary slip rates of about 0.6 mm/yr. Slip rates across the entire zone are estimated to be 0.7-1.1 mm/yr. The Seattle fault is cut into two main segments by an active, north-trending, high-angle, strike-slip fault zone with cumulative dextral displacement of about 2.4 km. Faults in this zone truncate and warp reflections in Tertiary and Quaternary strata and locally coincide with bathymetric lineaments. Cumulative slip rates on these faults may exceed 0.2 mm/yr. Assuming no other crosscutting faults, this north-trending fault zone divides the Seattle fault into 30-40-km-long western and eastern segments. Although this geometry could limit the area ruptured in some Seattle fault earthquakes, a large event ca. A.D. 900 appears to have involved both segments. Regional seismic-hazard assessments must (1) incorporate new information on fault length, geometry, and displacement rates on the Seattle fault, and (2) consider the hazard presented by the previously unrecognized, north-trending fault zone.

  14. Special Issue "Impact of Natural Hazards on Urban Areas and Infrastructure" in the Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bostenaru Dan, M.

    2009-04-01

    This special issue includes selected papers on the topic of earthquake impact from the sessions held in 2004 in Nice, France and in 2005 in Vienna, Austria at the first and respectivelly the second European Geosciences Union General Assembly. Since its start in 1999, in the Hague, Netherlands, the hazard of earthquakes has been the most popular of the session. The respective calls in 2004 was for: Nature's forces including earthquakes, floods, landslides, high winds and volcanic eruptions can inflict losses to urban settlements and man-made structures such as infrastructure. In Europe, recent years have seen such significant losses from earthquakes in south and south-eastern Europe, floods in central Europe, and wind storms in western Europe. Meanwhile, significant progress has been made in understanding disasters. Several scientific fields contribute to a holistic approach in the evaluation of capacities, vulnerabilities and hazards, the main factors on mitigating urban disasters due to natural hazards. An important part of the session is devoted to assessment of earthquake shaking and loss scenarios, including both physical damage and human causalities. Early warning and rapid damage evaluation are of utmost importance for addressing the safety of many essential facilities, for emergency management of events and for disaster response. In case of earthquake occurrence strong motion networks, data processing and interpretation lead to preliminary estimation (scenarios) of geographical distribution of damages. Factual information on inflicted damage, like those obtained from shaking maps or aerial imagery permit a confrontation with simulation maps of damage in order to define a more accurate picture of the overall losses. Most recent developments towards quantitative and qualitative simulation of natural hazard impacts on urban areas, which provide decision-making support for urban disaster management, and success stories of and lessons learned from disaster

  15. Effects of Strike-Slip Fault Segmentation on Earthquake Energy and Seismic Hazard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madden, E. H.; Cooke, M. L.; Savage, H. M.; McBeck, J.

    2014-12-01

    Many major strike-slip faults are segmented along strike, including those along plate boundaries in California and Turkey. Failure of distinct fault segments at depth may be the source of multiple pulses of seismic radiation observed for single earthquakes. However, how and when segmentation affects fault behavior and energy release is the basis of many outstanding questions related to the physics of faulting and seismic hazard. These include the probability for a single earthquake to rupture multiple fault segments and the effects of segmentation on earthquake magnitude, radiated seismic energy, and ground motions. Using numerical models, we quantify components of the earthquake energy budget, including the tectonic work acting externally on the system, the energy of internal rock strain, the energy required to overcome fault strength and initiate slip, the energy required to overcome frictional resistance during slip, and the radiated seismic energy. We compare the energy budgets of systems of two en echelon fault segments with various spacing that include both releasing and restraining steps. First, we allow the fault segments to fail simultaneously and capture the effects of segmentation geometry on the earthquake energy budget and on the efficiency with which applied displacement is accommodated. Assuming that higher efficiency correlates with higher probability for a single, larger earthquake, this approach has utility for assessing the seismic hazard of segmented faults. Second, we nucleate slip along a weak portion of one fault segment and let the quasi-static rupture propagate across the system. Allowing fractures to form near faults in these models shows that damage develops within releasing steps and promotes slip along the second fault, while damage develops outside of restraining steps and can prohibit slip along the second fault. Work is consumed in both the propagation of and frictional slip along these new fractures, impacting the energy available

  16. An information diffusion technique to assess integrated hazard risks.

    PubMed

    Huang, Chongfu; Huang, Yundong

    2018-02-01

    An integrated risk is a scene in the future associated with some adverse incident caused by multiple hazards. An integrated probability risk is the expected value of disaster. Due to the difficulty of assessing an integrated probability risk with a small sample, weighting methods and copulas are employed to avoid this obstacle. To resolve the problem, in this paper, we develop the information diffusion technique to construct a joint probability distribution and a vulnerability surface. Then, an integrated risk can be directly assessed by using a small sample. A case of an integrated risk caused by flood and earthquake is given to show how the suggested technique is used to assess the integrated risk of annual property loss. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. 76 FR 18165 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-04-01

    ... from remote locations by calling into a central phone number. DATES: The ACEHR will hold a meeting via... phone number is (301) 975-5640. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The Committee was established in accordance... Harman's e-mail address is [email protected] , and her phone number is 301-975-5324. Approximately...

  18. Earthquakes & Volcanoes, Volume 21, Number 1, 1989: Featuring the U.S. Geological Survey's National Earthquake Information Center in Golden, Colorado, USA

    ,; Spall, Henry; Schnabel, Diane C.

    1989-01-01

    Earthquakes and Volcanoes is published bimonthly by the U.S. Geological Survey to provide current information on earthquakes and seismology, volcanoes, and related natural hazards of interest to both generalized and specialized readers. The Secretary of the Interior has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. Use of funds for printing this periodical has been approved by the Office of Management and Budget through June 30, 1989. Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

  19. Reconnaissance engineering geology of Sitka and vicinity, Alaska, with emphasis on evaluation of earthquake and other geologic hazards

    Yehle, Lynn A.

    1974-01-01

    A program to study the engineering geology of most of the larger Alaska coastal communities and to evaluate their earthquake and other geologic hazards was started following the 1964 Alaska earthquake; this report about Sitka and vicinity is a product of that program. Field-study methods were of a reconnaissance nature, and thus the interpretations in the report are subject to revision as further information becomes available. This report can provide broad geologic guidelines for planners and engineers during preparation of land-use plans. The use of this information should lead to minimizing future loss of life and property due to geologic hazards, especially during very large earthquakes. Landscape of Sitka and surrounding area is characterized by numerous islands and a narrow strip of gently rolling ground adjacent to rugged mountains; steep valleys and some fiords cut sharply into the mountains. A few valley floors are wide and flat and grade into moderate-sized deltas. Glaciers throughout southeastern Alaska and elsewhere became vastly enlarged during the Pleistocene Epoch. The Sitka area presumably was covered by ice several times; glaciers deeply eroded some valleys and removed fractured bedrock along some faults. The last major deglaciation occurred sometime before 10,000 years ago. Crustal rebound believed to be related to glacial melting caused land emergence at Sitka of at least 35 feet (10.7 m) relative to present sea level. Bedrock at Sitka and vicinity is composed mostly of bedded, hard, dense graywacke and some argillite. Beds strike predominantly northwest and are vertical or steeply dipping. Locally, bedded rocks are cut by dikes of fine-grained igneous rock. Host bedrock is of Jurassic and Cretaceous age. Eight types of surficial deposits of Quaternary age were recognized. Below altitudes of 3S feet (10.7 m), the dominant deposits are those of modern and elevated shores and deltas; at higher altitudes, widespread muskeg overlies a mantle of

  20. Cockpit display of hazardous weather information

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansman, R. John, Jr.; Wanke, Craig

    1991-01-01

    Information transfer and display issues associated with the dissemination of hazardous weather warnings are studied in the context of wind shear alerts. Operational and developmental wind shear detection systems are briefly reviewed. The July 11, 1988 microburst events observed as part of the Denver Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) operational evaluation are analyzed in terms of information transfer and the effectiveness of the microburst alerts. Information transfer, message content and display issues associated with microburst alerts generated from ground based sources (Doppler Radar, Low Level Wind Shear Alert System, and Pilot Reports) are evaluated by means fo pilot opinion surveys and part task simulator studies.

  1. Cockpit display of hazardous weather information

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansman, R. John, Jr.; Wanke, Craig

    1990-01-01

    Information transfer and display issues associated with the dissemination of hazardous weather warnings are studied in the context of windshear alerts. Operational and developmental windshear detection systems are briefly reviewed. The July 11, 1988 microburst events observed as part of the Denver Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) operational evaluation are analyzed in terms of information transfer and the effectiveness of the microburst alerts. Information transfer, message content and display issues associated with microburst alerts generated from ground based sources are evaluated by means of pilot opinion surveys and part task simulator studies.

  2. Cockpit display of hazardous weather information

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansman, R. John, Jr.; Wanke, Craig

    1989-01-01

    Information transfer and display issues associated with the dissemination of hazardous-weather warnings are studied in the context of wind-shear alerts. Operational and developmental wind-shear detection systems are briefly reviewed. The July 11, 1988 microburst events observed as part of the Denver TDWR operational evaluation are analyzed in terms of information transfer and the effectiveness of the microburst alerts. Information transfer, message content, and display issues associated with microburst alerts generated from ground-based sources (Doppler radars, LLWAS, and PIREPS) are evaluated by means of pilot opinion surveys and part-task simulator studies.

  3. Expanding the Delivery of Rapid Earthquake Information and Warnings for Response and Recovery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blanpied, M. L.; McBride, S.; Hardebeck, J.; Michael, A. J.; van der Elst, N.

    2017-12-01

    Scientific organizations like the United States Geological Survey (USGS) release information to support effective responses during an earthquake crisis. Information is delivered to the White House, the National Command Center, the Departments of Defense, Homeland Security (including FEMA), Transportation, Energy, and Interior. Other crucial stakeholders include state officials and decision makers, emergency responders, numerous public and private infrastructure management centers (e.g., highways, railroads and pipelines), the media, and the public. To meet the diverse information requirements of these users, rapid earthquake notifications have been developed to be delivered by e-mail and text message, as well as a suite of earthquake information resources such as ShakeMaps, Did You Feel It?, PAGER impact estimates, and data are delivered via the web. The ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system being developed for the U.S. West Coast will identify and characterize an earthquake a few seconds after it begins, estimate the likely intensity of ground shaking, and deliver brief but critically important warnings to people and infrastructure in harm's way. Currently the USGS is also developing a capability to deliver Operational Earthquake Forecasts (OEF). These provide estimates of potential seismic behavior after large earthquakes and during evolving aftershock sequences. Similar work is underway in New Zealand, Japan, and Italy. In the development of OEF forecasts, social science research conducted during these sequences indicates that aftershock forecasts are valued for a variety of reasons, from informing critical response and recovery decisions to psychologically preparing for more earthquakes. New tools will allow users to customize map-based, spatiotemporal forecasts to their specific needs. Hazard curves and other advanced information will also be available. For such authoritative information to be understood and used during the pressures of an earthquake

  4. Have recent earthquakes exposed flaws in or misunderstandings of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis?

    Hanks, Thomas C.; Beroza, Gregory C.; Toda, Shinji

    2012-01-01

    In a recent Opinion piece in these pages, Stein et al. (2011) offer a remarkable indictment of the methods, models, and results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). The principal object of their concern is the PSHA map for Japan released by the Japan Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP), which is reproduced by Stein et al. (2011) as their Figure 1 and also here as our Figure 1. It shows the probability of exceedance (also referred to as the “hazard”) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) intensity 6–lower (JMA 6–) in Japan for the 30-year period beginning in January 2010. JMA 6– is an earthquake-damage intensity measure that is associated with fairly strong ground motion that can be damaging to well-built structures and is potentially destructive to poor construction (HERP, 2005, appendix 5). Reiterating Geller (2011, p. 408), Stein et al. (2011, p. 623) have this to say about Figure 1: The regions assessed as most dangerous are the zones of three hypothetical “scenario earthquakes” (Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai; see map). However, since 1979, earthquakes that caused 10 or more fatalities in Japan actually occurred in places assigned a relatively low probability. This discrepancy—the latest in a string of negative results for the characteristic model and its cousin the seismic-gap model—strongly suggest that the hazard map and the methods used to produce it are flawed and should be discarded. Given the central role that PSHA now plays in seismic risk analysis, performance-based engineering, and design-basis ground motions, discarding PSHA would have important consequences. We are not persuaded by the arguments of Geller (2011) and Stein et al. (2011) for doing so because important misunderstandings about PSHA seem to have conditioned them. In the quotation above, for example, they have confused important differences between earthquake-occurrence observations and ground-motion hazard calculations.

  5. The 2011 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake and its significance for seismic hazards in eastern North America: overview and synthesis

    Horton, J. Wright; Chapman, Martin C.; Green, Russell A.

    2015-01-01

    The earthquake and aftershocks occurred in crystalline rocks within Paleozoic thrust sheets of the Chopawamsic terrane. The main shock and majority of aftershocks delineated the newly named Quail fault zone in the subsurface, and shallow aftershocks defined outlying faults. The earthquake induced minor liquefaction sand boils, but notably there was no evidence of a surface fault rupture. Recurrence intervals, and evidence for larger earthquakes in the Quaternary in this area, remain important unknowns. This event, along with similar events during historical time, is a reminder that earthquakes of similar or larger magnitude pose a real hazard in eastern North America.

  6. Hazard assessment of long-period ground motions for the Nankai Trough earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maeda, T.; Morikawa, N.; Aoi, S.; Fujiwara, H.

    2013-12-01

    We evaluate a seismic hazard for long-period ground motions associated with the Nankai Trough earthquakes (M8~9) in southwest Japan. Large interplate earthquakes occurring around the Nankai Trough have caused serious damages due to strong ground motions and tsunami; most recent events were in 1944 and 1946. Such large interplate earthquake potentially causes damages to high-rise and large-scale structures due to long-period ground motions (e.g., 1985 Michoacan earthquake in Mexico, 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake in Japan). The long-period ground motions are amplified particularly on basins. Because major cities along the Nankai Trough have developed on alluvial plains, it is therefore important to evaluate long-period ground motions as well as strong motions and tsunami for the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquakes. The long-period ground motions are evaluated by the finite difference method (FDM) using 'characterized source models' and the 3-D underground structure model. The 'characterized source model' refers to a source model including the source parameters necessary for reproducing the strong ground motions. The parameters are determined based on a 'recipe' for predicting strong ground motion (Earthquake Research Committee (ERC), 2009). We construct various source models (~100 scenarios) giving the various case of source parameters such as source region, asperity configuration, and hypocenter location. Each source region is determined by 'the long-term evaluation of earthquakes in the Nankai Trough' published by ERC. The asperity configuration and hypocenter location control the rupture directivity effects. These parameters are important because our preliminary simulations are strongly affected by the rupture directivity. We apply the system called GMS (Ground Motion Simulator) for simulating the seismic wave propagation based on 3-D FDM scheme using discontinuous grids (Aoi and Fujiwara, 1999) to our study. The grid spacing for the shallow region is 200 m and

  7. Earthquake ethics through scientific knowledge, historical memory and societal awareness: the experience of direct internet information.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Rubeis, Valerio; Sbarra, Paola; Sebaste, Beppe; Tosi, Patrizia

    2013-04-01

    The experience of collection of data on earthquake effects and diffusion of information to people, carried on through the site "haisentitoilterremoto.it" (didyoufeelit) managed by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), has evidenced a constantly growing interest by Italian citizens. Started in 2007, the site has collected more than 520,000 compiled intensity questionnaires, producing intensity maps of almost 6,000 earthquakes. One of the most peculiar feature of this experience is constituted by a bi-directional information exchange. Every person can record observed effects of the earthquake and, at the same time, look at the generated maps. Seismologists, on the other side, can find each earthquake described in real time through its effects on the whole territory. In this way people, giving punctual information, receive global information from the community, mediated and interpreted by seismological knowledge. The relationship amongst seismologists, mass media and civil society is, thus, deep and rich. The presence of almost 20,000 permanent subscribers distributed on the whole Italian territory, alerted in case of earthquake, has reinforced the participation: the subscriber is constantly informed by the seismologists, through e-mail, about events occurred in his-her area, even if with very small magnitude. The "alert" service provides the possibility to remember that earthquakes are a phenomenon continuously present, on the other hand it shows that high magnitude events are very rare. This kind of information is helpful as it is fully complementary to that one given by media. We analyze the effects of our activity on society and mass media. The knowledge of seismic phenomena is present in each person, having roots on fear, idea of death and destruction, often with the deep belief of very rare occurrence. This position feeds refusal and repression. When a strong earthquake occurs, surprise immediately changes into shock and desperation. A

  8. Earthquakes

    MedlinePlus

    An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...

  9. Development of direct multi-hazard susceptibility assessment method for post-earthquake reconstruction planning in Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mavrouli, Olga; Rana, Sohel; van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Jianqiang

    2017-04-01

    After the devastating 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal, reconstruction activities have been delayed considerably, due to many reasons, of a political, organizational and technical nature. Due to the widespread occurrence of co-seismic landslides, and the expectation that these may be aggravated or re-activated in future years during the intense monsoon periods, there is a need to evaluate for thousands of sites whether these are suited for reconstruction. In this evaluation multi-hazards, such as rockfall, landslides, debris flow, and flashfloods should be taken into account. The application of indirect knowledge-based, data-driven or physically-based approaches is not suitable due to several reasons. Physically-based models generally require a large number of parameters, for which data is not available. Data-driven, statistical methods, depend on historical information, which is less useful after the occurrence of a major event, such as an earthquake. Besides, they would lead to unacceptable levels of generalization, as the analysis is done based on rather general causal factor maps. The same holds for indirect knowledge-driven methods. However, location-specific hazards analysis is required using a simple method that can be used by many people at the local level. In this research, a direct scientific method was developed where local level technical people can easily and quickly assess the post-earthquake multi hazards following a decision tree approach, using an app on a smartphone or tablet. The methods assumes that a central organization, such as the Department of Soil Conservation and Watershed Management, generates spatial information beforehand that is used in the direct assessment at a certain location. Pre-earthquake, co-seismic and post-seismic landslide inventories are generated through the interpretation of Google Earth multi-temporal images, using anaglyph methods. Spatial data, such as Digital Elevation Models, land cover maps, and geological maps are

  10. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments of Sabah, east Malaysia: accounting for local earthquake activity near Ranau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khalil, Amin E.; Abir, Ismail A.; Ginsos, Hanteh; Abdel Hafiez, Hesham E.; Khan, Sohail

    2018-02-01

    Sabah state in eastern Malaysia, unlike most of the other Malaysian states, is characterized by common seismological activity; generally an earthquake of moderate magnitude is experienced at an interval of roughly every 20 years, originating mainly from two major sources, either a local source (e.g. Ranau and Lahad Dato) or a regional source (e.g. Kalimantan and South Philippines subductions). The seismicity map of Sabah shows the presence of two zones of distinctive seismicity, these zones are near Ranau (near Kota Kinabalu) and Lahad Datu in the southeast of Sabah. The seismicity record of Ranau begins in 1991, according to the international seismicity bulletins (e.g. United States Geological Survey and the International Seismological Center), and this short record is not sufficient for seismic source characterization. Fortunately, active Quaternary fault systems are delineated in the area. Henceforth, the seismicity of the area is thus determined as line sources referring to these faults. Two main fault systems are believed to be the source of such activities; namely, the Mensaban fault zone and the Crocker fault zone in addition to some other faults in their vicinity. Seismic hazard assessments became a very important and needed study for the extensive developing projects in Sabah especially with the presence of earthquake activities. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments are adopted for the present work since it can provide the probability of various ground motion levels during expected from future large earthquakes. The output results are presented in terms of spectral acceleration curves and uniform hazard curves for periods of 500, 1000 and 2500 years. Since this is the first time that a complete hazard study has been done for the area, the output will be a base and standard for any future strategic plans in the area.

  11. Physics-Based Hazard Assessment for Critical Structures Near Large Earthquake Sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hutchings, L.; Mert, A.; Fahjan, Y.; Novikova, T.; Golara, A.; Miah, M.; Fergany, E.; Foxall, W.

    2017-09-01

    We argue that for critical structures near large earthquake sources: (1) the ergodic assumption, recent history, and simplified descriptions of the hazard are not appropriate to rely on for earthquake ground motion prediction and can lead to a mis-estimation of the hazard and risk to structures; (2) a physics-based approach can address these issues; (3) a physics-based source model must be provided to generate realistic phasing effects from finite rupture and model near-source ground motion correctly; (4) wave propagations and site response should be site specific; (5) a much wider search of possible sources of ground motion can be achieved computationally with a physics-based approach; (6) unless one utilizes a physics-based approach, the hazard and risk to structures has unknown uncertainties; (7) uncertainties can be reduced with a physics-based approach, but not with an ergodic approach; (8) computational power and computer codes have advanced to the point that risk to structures can be calculated directly from source and site-specific ground motions. Spanning the variability of potential ground motion in a predictive situation is especially difficult for near-source areas, but that is the distance at which the hazard is the greatest. The basis of a "physical-based" approach is ground-motion syntheses derived from physics and an understanding of the earthquake process. This is an overview paper and results from previous studies are used to make the case for these conclusions. Our premise is that 50 years of strong motion records is insufficient to capture all possible ranges of site and propagation path conditions, rupture processes, and spatial geometric relationships between source and site. Predicting future earthquake scenarios is necessary; models that have little or no physical basis but have been tested and adjusted to fit available observations can only "predict" what happened in the past, which should be considered description as opposed to prediction

  12. Shallow slip amplification and enhanced tsunami hazard unravelled by dynamic simulations of mega-thrust earthquakes

    PubMed Central

    Murphy, S.; Scala, A.; Herrero, A.; Lorito, S.; Festa, G.; Trasatti, E.; Tonini, R.; Romano, F.; Molinari, I.; Nielsen, S.

    2016-01-01

    The 2011 Tohoku earthquake produced an unexpected large amount of shallow slip greatly contributing to the ensuing tsunami. How frequent are such events? How can they be efficiently modelled for tsunami hazard? Stochastic slip models, which can be computed rapidly, are used to explore the natural slip variability; however, they generally do not deal specifically with shallow slip features. We study the systematic depth-dependence of slip along a thrust fault with a number of 2D dynamic simulations using stochastic shear stress distributions and a geometry based on the cross section of the Tohoku fault. We obtain a probability density for the slip distribution, which varies both with depth, earthquake size and whether the rupture breaks the surface. We propose a method to modify stochastic slip distributions according to this dynamically-derived probability distribution. This method may be efficiently applied to produce large numbers of heterogeneous slip distributions for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis. Using numerous M9 earthquake scenarios, we demonstrate that incorporating the dynamically-derived probability distribution does enhance the conditional probability of exceedance of maximum estimated tsunami wave heights along the Japanese coast. This technique for integrating dynamic features in stochastic models can be extended to any subduction zone and faulting style. PMID:27725733

  13. Comparision of the different probability distributions for earthquake hazard assessment in the North Anatolian Fault Zone

    SciT

    Yilmaz, Şeyda, E-mail: seydayilmaz@ktu.edu.tr; Bayrak, Erdem, E-mail: erdmbyrk@gmail.com; Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: bayrak@ktu.edu.tr

    In this study we examined and compared the three different probabilistic distribution methods for determining the best suitable model in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. We analyzed a reliable homogeneous earthquake catalogue between a time period 1900-2015 for magnitude M ≥ 6.0 and estimated the probabilistic seismic hazard in the North Anatolian Fault zone (39°-41° N 30°-40° E) using three distribution methods namely Weibull distribution, Frechet distribution and three-parameter Weibull distribution. The distribution parameters suitability was evaluated Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit test. We also compared the estimated cumulative probability and the conditional probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes for different elapsed timemore » using these three distribution methods. We used Easyfit and Matlab software to calculate these distribution parameters and plotted the conditional probability curves. We concluded that the Weibull distribution method was the most suitable than other distribution methods in this region.« less

  14. RISMUR II: New seismic hazard and risk study in Murcia Region after the Lorca Earthquake, 2011

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benito, Belen; Gaspar, Jorge; Rivas, Alicia; Quiros, Ligia; Ruiz, Sandra; Hernandez, Roman; Torres, Yolanda; Staller, Sandra

    2016-04-01

    The Murcia Region, is one of the highest seimic activity of Spain, located SE Iberian Peninsula. A system of active faults are included in the región, where the most recent damaging eartquakes took place in our country: 1999, 2002, 2005 and 2011. The last one ocurred in Lorca, causing 9 deads and notably material losses, including the artistic stock. The seismic emergency plann of the Murcia Region was developed in 2006, based of the results of the risk Project RISMUR I, which among other conslusions pointed out Lorca as one of the municipalities with highest risk in the province,. After the Lorca earthquake in 2011, a revisión of the previous study has been developed through the Project RISMUR II, including data of this earthquake , as well as updted Data Base of: seismicity, active faults, strong motion records, cadastre, vulnerability, etc. In adittion, the new study includes, some methodology innovations: modelization of faults as independent units for hazard assessment, analytic methods for risk estimations using data of the earthquake for calibration of capacity and fragility curves. In this work the results of RISMUR II are presented, which are compared with those reached in RISMUR I. The main conclusions are: Increasing of the hazard along the central system fault SW-NE (Alhama de Murcia, Totana nad Carracoy), which involve highest expected damages in the nearest populations to these faults: Lorca, Totana, Alcantarilla and Murcia.

  15. Semi-automated landform classification for hazard mapping of soil liquefaction by earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakano, Takayuki

    2018-05-01

    Soil liquefaction damages were caused by huge earthquake in Japan, and the similar damages are concerned in near future huge earthquake. On the other hand, a preparation of soil liquefaction risk map (soil liquefaction hazard map) is impeded by the difficulty of evaluation of soil liquefaction risk. Generally, relative soil liquefaction risk should be able to be evaluated from landform classification data by using experimental rule based on the relationship between extent of soil liquefaction damage and landform classification items associated with past earthquake. Therefore, I rearranged the relationship between landform classification items and soil liquefaction risk intelligibly in order to enable the evaluation of soil liquefaction risk based on landform classification data appropriately and efficiently. And I developed a new method of generating landform classification data of 50-m grid size from existing landform classification data of 250-m grid size by using digital elevation model (DEM) data and multi-band satellite image data in order to evaluate soil liquefaction risk in detail spatially. It is expected that the products of this study contribute to efficient producing of soil liquefaction hazard map by local government.

  16. Impact of Short-term Changes In Earthquake Hazard on Risk In Christchurch, New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nyst, M.

    2012-12-01

    The recent Mw 7.1, 4 September 2010 Darfield, and Mw 6.2, 22 February 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes and the following aftershock activity completely changed the existing view on earthquake hazard of the Christchurch area. Not only have several faults been added to the New Zealand fault database, the main shocks were also followed by significant increases in seismicity due to high aftershock activity throughout the Christchurch region that is still on-going. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) models take into account a stochastic event set, the full range of possible events that can cause damage or loss at a particular location. This allows insurance companies to look at their risk profiles via average annual losses (AAL) and loss-exceedance curves. The loss-exceedance curve is derived from the full suite of seismic events that could impact the insured exposure and plots the probability of exceeding a particular loss level over a certain period. Insurers manage their risk by focusing on a certain return period exceedance benchmark, typically between the 100 and 250 year return period loss level, and then reserve the amount of money needed to account for that return period loss level, their so called capacity. This component of risk management is not too sensitive to short-term changes in risk due to aftershock seismicity, as it is mostly dominated by longer-return period, larger magnitude, more damaging events. However, because the secondairy uncertainties are taken into account when calculating the exceedance probability, even the longer return period losses can still experience significant impact from the inclusion of time-dependent earthquake behavior. AAL is calculated by summing the product of the expected loss level and the annual rate for all events in the event set that cause damage or loss at a particular location. This relatively simple metric is an important factor in setting the annual premiums. By annualizing the expected losses

  17. Earthquake hazard assessment in the Zagros Orogenic Belt of Iran using a fuzzy rule-based model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farahi Ghasre Aboonasr, Sedigheh; Zamani, Ahmad; Razavipour, Fatemeh; Boostani, Reza

    2017-08-01

    Producing accurate seismic hazard map and predicting hazardous areas is necessary for risk mitigation strategies. In this paper, a fuzzy logic inference system is utilized to estimate the earthquake potential and seismic zoning of Zagros Orogenic Belt. In addition to the interpretability, fuzzy predictors can capture both nonlinearity and chaotic behavior of data, where the number of data is limited. In this paper, earthquake pattern in the Zagros has been assessed for the intervals of 10 and 50 years using fuzzy rule-based model. The Molchan statistical procedure has been used to show that our forecasting model is reliable. The earthquake hazard maps for this area reveal some remarkable features that cannot be observed on the conventional maps. Regarding our achievements, some areas in the southern (Bandar Abbas), southwestern (Bandar Kangan) and western (Kermanshah) parts of Iran display high earthquake severity even though they are geographically far apart.

  18. Rapid earthquake hazard and loss assessment for Euro-Mediterranean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erdik, Mustafa; Sesetyan, Karin; Demircioglu, Mine; Hancilar, Ufuk; Zulfikar, Can; Cakti, Eser; Kamer, Yaver; Yenidogan, Cem; Tuzun, Cuneyt; Cagnan, Zehra; Harmandar, Ebru

    2010-10-01

    The almost-real time estimation of ground shaking and losses after a major earthquake in the Euro-Mediterranean region was performed in the framework of the Joint Research Activity 3 (JRA-3) component of the EU FP6 Project entitled "Network of Research Infra-structures for European Seismology, NERIES". This project consists of finding the most likely location of the earthquake source by estimating the fault rupture parameters on the basis of rapid inversion of data from on-line regional broadband stations. It also includes an estimation of the spatial distribution of selected site-specific ground motion parameters at engineering bedrock through region-specific ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) or physical simulation of ground motion. By using the Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine (ELER) software, the multi-level methodology developed for real time estimation of losses is capable of incorporating regional variability and sources of uncertainty stemming from GMPEs, fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of physical and social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and the associated vulnerability relationships.

  19. 2018 one‐year seismic hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes

    Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; McNamara, Daniel E.; Williams, Robert A.; Shumway, Allison; Powers, Peter; Earle, Paul; Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; Norbeck, Jack; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

    2018-01-01

    This article describes the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 2018 one‐year probabilistic seismic hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes. For consistency, the updated 2018 forecast is developed using the same probabilistic seismicity‐based methodology as applied in the two previous forecasts. Rates of earthquakes across the United States M≥3.0">M≥3.0 grew rapidly between 2008 and 2015 but have steadily declined over the past 3 years, especially in areas of Oklahoma and southern Kansas where fluid injection has decreased. The seismicity pattern in 2017 was complex with earthquakes more spatially dispersed than in the previous years. Some areas of west‐central Oklahoma experienced increased activity rates where industrial activity increased. Earthquake rates in Oklahoma (429 earthquakes of M≥3">M≥3 and 4 M≥4">M≥4), Raton basin (Colorado/New Mexico border, six earthquakes M≥3">M≥3), and the New Madrid seismic zone (11 earthquakes M≥3">M≥3) continue to be higher than historical levels. Almost all of these earthquakes occurred within the highest hazard regions of the 2017 forecast. Even though rates declined over the past 3 years, the short‐term hazard for damaging ground shaking across much of Oklahoma remains at high levels due to continuing high rates of smaller earthquakes that are still hundreds of times higher than at any time in the state’s history. Fine details and variability between the 2016–2018 forecasts are obscured by significant uncertainties in the input model. These short‐term hazard levels are similar to active regions in California. During 2017, M≥3">M≥3 earthquakes also occurred in or near Ohio, West Virginia, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Illinois, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming.

  20. Disseminating Landslide Hazard Information for California Local Government

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wills, C. J.

    2010-12-01

    Since 1969, the California Geological Survey has produced numerous maps showing landslide features and delineating potential slope-stability problem areas. These maps have been provided to local governments to encourage consideration of landslide hazards in planning and development decisions. Maps produced from 1986 through 1995 under the Landslide Hazard Mapping Act were advisory only, and their use by local government was never consistent. By contrast, maps of Zones of Required Investigation for seismically induced landslides produced under the Seismic Hazard Zoning Act since 1997 come with detailed guidelines and legal requirements. A legislative act that required landslide hazards be mapped and hazard maps disseminated to local government proved ineffective in landslide hazard mitigation. A later act with requirements that the hazard zone maps be used by local government proved more effective. Planning scenarios have proven to be an effective way of transmitting scientific information about natural hazards to emergency response professionals. Numerous earthquake planning scenarios have been prepared and used as the basis for emergency response exercises. An advantage of scenarios that include loss estimates is that the effects can be put in units of measure that everyone understands, principally deaths and dollars. HAZUS software available from FEMA allows calculation of losses for earthquake scenarios, but similar methods for landslides have not been developed. As part of the USGS Multi-Hazard Demonstration Project, we have estimated the landslide losses for a major west-coast winter storm scenario by developing a system based loosely on HAZUS. Data on landslide damage in past storms has been sparse and inconsistent, but a few data sets are available. The most detailed and complete available data on landslide damage was gathered by the City of Los Angeles following the 1978 storms. We extrapolate from that data to the entire state by first generalizing a

  1. Observations and recommendations regarding landslide hazards related to the January 13, 2001 M-7.6 El Salvador earthquake

    Jibson, Randall W.; Crone, Anthony J.

    2001-01-01

    The January 13, 2001 earthquake (M-7.6) off the coast of El Salvador triggered widespread damaging landslides in many parts of the El Salvador. In the aftermath of the earthquake, the Salvadoran government requested technical assistance through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID); USAID, in turn, requested help from technical experts in landslide hazards from the U.S. Geological Survey. In response to that request, we arrived in El Salvador on January 31, 2001 and worked with USAID personnel and Salvadoran agency counterparts in visiting landslide sites and evaluating present and potential hazards. A preliminary, unofficial report was prepared at the end of our trip (February 9) to provide immediate information and assistance to interested agencies and parties. The current report is an updated and somewhat expanded version of that unofficial report. Because of the brief nature of this report, conclusions and recommendations contained herein should be considered tentative and may be revised in the future.

  2. Teamwork tools and activities within the hazard component of the Global Earthquake Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pagani, M.; Weatherill, G.; Monelli, D.; Danciu, L.

    2013-05-01

    The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a public-private partnership aimed at supporting and fostering a global community of scientists and engineers working in the fields of seismic hazard and risk assessment. In the hazard sector, in particular, GEM recognizes the importance of local ownership and leadership in the creation of seismic hazard models. For this reason, over the last few years, GEM has been promoting different activities in the context of seismic hazard analysis ranging, for example, from regional projects targeted at the creation of updated seismic hazard studies to the development of a new open-source seismic hazard and risk calculation software called OpenQuake-engine (http://globalquakemodel.org). In this communication we'll provide a tour of the various activities completed, such as the new ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Catalogue, and of currently on-going initiatives like the creation of a suite of tools for the creation of PSHA input models. Discussion, comments and criticism by the colleagues in the audience will be highly appreciated.

  3. Strategic crisis and risk communication during a prolonged natural hazard event: lessons learned from the Canterbury earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wein, A. M.; Potter, S.; Becker, J.; Doyle, E. E.; Jones, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    While communication products are developed for monitoring and forecasting hazard events, less thought may have been given to crisis and risk communication plans. During larger (and rarer) events responsible science agencies may find themselves facing new and intensified demands for information and unprepared for effectively resourcing communications. In a study of the communication of aftershock information during the 2010-12 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (New Zealand), issues are identified and implications for communication strategy noted. Communication issues during the responses included reliability and timeliness of communication channels for immediate and short decision time frames; access to scientists by those who needed information; unfamiliar emergency management frameworks; information needs of multiple audiences, audience readiness to use the information; and how best to convey empathy during traumatic events and refer to other information sources about what to do and how to cope. Other science communication challenges included meeting an increased demand for earthquake education, getting attention on aftershock forecasts; responding to rumor management; supporting uptake of information by critical infrastructure and government and for the application of scientific information in complex societal decisions; dealing with repetitive information requests; addressing diverse needs of multiple audiences for scientific information; and coordinating communications within and outside the science domain. For a science agency, a communication strategy would consider training scientists in communication, establishing relationships with university scientists and other disaster communication roles, coordinating messages, prioritizing audiences, deliberating forecasts with community leaders, identifying user needs and familiarizing them with the products ahead of time, and practicing the delivery and use of information via scenario planning and exercises.

  4. Tsunami Hazard Assessment of Coastal South Africa Based on Mega-Earthquakes of Remote Subduction Zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kijko, Andrzej; Smit, Ansie; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Novikova, Tatyana

    2017-11-01

    After the mega-earthquakes and concomitant devastating tsunamis in Sumatra (2004) and Japan (2011), we launched an investigation into the potential risk of tsunami hazard to the coastal cities of South Africa. This paper presents the analysis of the seismic hazard of seismogenic sources that could potentially generate tsunamis, as well as the analysis of the tsunami hazard to coastal areas of South Africa. The subduction zones of Makran, South Sandwich Island, Sumatra, and the Andaman Islands were identified as possible sources of mega-earthquakes and tsunamis that could affect the African coast. Numerical tsunami simulations were used to investigate the realistic and worst-case scenarios that could be generated by these subduction zones. The simulated tsunami amplitudes and run-up heights calculated for the coastal cities of Cape Town, Durban, and Port Elizabeth are relatively small and therefore pose no real risk to the South African coast. However, only distant tsunamigenic sources were considered and the results should therefore be viewed as preliminary.

  5. Tsunami Hazard Assessment of Coastal South Africa Based on Mega-Earthquakes of Remote Subduction Zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kijko, Andrzej; Smit, Ansie; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Novikova, Tatyana

    2018-04-01

    After the mega-earthquakes and concomitant devastating tsunamis in Sumatra (2004) and Japan (2011), we launched an investigation into the potential risk of tsunami hazard to the coastal cities of South Africa. This paper presents the analysis of the seismic hazard of seismogenic sources that could potentially generate tsunamis, as well as the analysis of the tsunami hazard to coastal areas of South Africa. The subduction zones of Makran, South Sandwich Island, Sumatra, and the Andaman Islands were identified as possible sources of mega-earthquakes and tsunamis that could affect the African coast. Numerical tsunami simulations were used to investigate the realistic and worst-case scenarios that could be generated by these subduction zones. The simulated tsunami amplitudes and run-up heights calculated for the coastal cities of Cape Town, Durban, and Port Elizabeth are relatively small and therefore pose no real risk to the South African coast. However, only distant tsunamigenic sources were considered and the results should therefore be viewed as preliminary.

  6. The 24th January 2016 Hawassa earthquake: Implications for seismic hazard in the Main Ethiopian Rift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilks, Matthew; Ayele, Atalay; Kendall, J.-Michael; Wookey, James

    2017-01-01

    Earthquakes of low to intermediate magnitudes are a commonly observed feature of continental rifting and particularly in regions of Quaternary to Recent volcanism such as in the Main Ethiopian Rift (MER). Although the seismic hazard is estimated to be less in the Hawassa region of the MER than further north and south, a significant earthquake occurred on the 24th January 2016 in the Hawassa caldera basin and close to the Corbetti volcanic complex. The event was felt up to 100 km away and caused structural damage and public anxiety in the city of Hawassa itself. In this paper we first refine the earthquake's location using data from global network and Ethiopian network stations. The resulting location is at 7.0404°N, 38.3478°E and at 4.55 km depth, which suggests that the event occurred on structures associated with the caldera collapse of the Hawassa caldera in the early Pleistocene and not through volcano-tectonic processes at Corbetti. We calculate local and moment magnitudes, which are magnitude scales more appropriate at regional hypocentral distances than (mb) at four stations. This is done using a local scale (attenuation term) previously determined for the MER and spectral analysis for ML and MW respectively and gives magnitude estimates of 4.68 and 4.29. The event indicates predominantly normal slip on a N-S striking fault structure, which suggests that slip continues to occur on Wonji faults that have exploited weaknesses inherited from the preceding caldera collapse. These results and two previous earthquakes in the Hawassa caldera of M > 5 highlight that earthquakes continue to pose a risk to structures within the caldera basin. With this in mind, it is suggested that enhanced monitoring and public outreach should be considered.

  7. Earthquakes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pakiser, Louis C.

    One of a series of general interest publications on science topics, the booklet provides those interested in earthquakes with an introduction to the subject. Following a section presenting an historical look at the world's major earthquakes, the booklet discusses earthquake-prone geographic areas, the nature and workings of earthquakes, earthquake…

  8. Earthquakes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walter, Edward J.

    1977-01-01

    Presents an analysis of the causes of earthquakes. Topics discussed include (1) geological and seismological factors that determine the effect of a particular earthquake on a given structure; (2) description of some large earthquakes such as the San Francisco quake; and (3) prediction of earthquakes. (HM)

  9. Earthquake and Volcanic Hazard Mitigation and Capacity Building in Sub-Saharan Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ayele, A.

    2012-04-01

    The East African Rift System (EARS) is a classic example of active continental rifting, and a natural laboratory setting to study initiation and early stage evolution of continental rifts. The EARS is at different stages of development that varies from relatively matured rift (16 mm/yr) in the Afar to a weakly extended Okavango Delta in the south with predicted opening velocity < 3 mm/yr. Recent studies in the region helped researchers to highlight the length and timescales of magmatism and faulting, the partitioning of strain between faulting and magmatism, and their implications for the development of along-axis segmentation. Although the human resource and instrument coverage is sparse in the continent, our understanding of rift processes and deep structure has improved in the last decade after the advent of space geodesy and broadband seismology. The recent major earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and mega dike intrusions that occurred along the EARS attracted several earth scientist teams across the globe. However, most African countries traversed by the rift do not have the full capacity to monitor and mitigate earthquake and volcanic hazards. Few monitoring facilities exist in some countries, and the data acquisition is rarely available in real-time for mitigation purpose. Many sub-Saharan Africa governments are currently focused on achieving the millennium development goals with massive infrastructure development scheme and urbanization while impending natural hazards of such nature are severely overlooked. Collaborations with overseas researchers and other joint efforts by the international community are opportunities to be used by African institutions to best utilize limited resources and to mitigate earthquake and volcano hazards.

  10. Citizen Monitoring during Hazards: The Case of Fukushima Radiation after the 2011 Japanese Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hultquist, C.; Cervone, G.

    2015-12-01

    Citizen-led movements producing scientific environmental information are increasingly common during hazards. After the Japanese earthquake-triggered tsunami in 2011, the government produced airborne remote sensing data of the radiation levels after the Fukushima nuclear reactor failures. Advances in technology enabled citizens to monitor radiation by innovative mobile devices built from components bought on the Internet. The citizen-led Safecast project measured on-ground levels of radiation in the Fukushima prefecture which total 14 million entries to date in Japan. This non-authoritative citizen science collection recorded radiation levels at specific coordinates and times is available online, yet the reliability and validity of the data had not been assessed. The nuclear incident provided a case for assessment with comparable dimensions of citizen science and authoritative data. To perform a comparison of the datasets, standardization was required. The sensors were calibrated scientifically but collected using different units of measure. Radiation decays over time so temporal interpolation was necessary for comparison of measurements as being the same time frame. Finally, the GPS located points were selected within the overlapping spatial extent of 500 meters. This study spatially analyzes and statistically compares citizen-volunteered and government-generated radiation data. Quantitative measures are used to assess the similarity and difference in the datasets. Radiation measurements from the same geographic extents show similar spatial variations which suggests that citizen science data can be comparable with government-generated measurements. Validation of Safecast demonstrates that we can infer scientific data from unstructured and not vested data. Citizen science can provide real-time data for situational awareness which is crucial for decision making during disasters. This project provides a methodology for comparing datasets of radiological measurements

  11. Scenario-Based Tsunami Hazard Assessment from Earthquake and Landslide Sources for Eastern Sicily, Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tinti, S.; Armigliato, A.; Pagnoni, G.; Paparo, M. A.; Zaniboni, F.

    2016-12-01

    Eastern Sicily was theatre of the most damaging tsunamis that ever struck Italy, such as the 11 January 1693 and the 28 December 1908 tsunamis. Tectonic studies and paleotsunami investigations extended historical records of tsunami occurrence back of several thousands of years. Tsunami sources relevant for eastern Sicily are both local and remote, the latter being located in the Ionian Greece and in the Western Hellenic Arc. Here in 365 A.D. a large earthquake generated a tsunami that was seen in the whole eastern and central Mediterranean including the Sicilian coasts. The objective of this study is the evaluation of tsunami hazard along the coast of eastern Sicily, central Mediterranean, Italy via a scenario-based technique, which has been preferred to the PTHA approach because, when dealing with tsunamis induced by landslides, uncertainties are usually so large to undermine the PTHA results. Tsunamis of earthquake and landslide origin are taken into account for the entire coast of Sicily, from the Messina to the Siracusa provinces. Landslides are essentially local sources and can occur underwater along the unstable flanks of the Messina Straits or along the steep slopes of the Hyblaean-Malta escarpment. The method is based on a two-step procedure. After a preliminary step where very many earthquake and landslide sources are taken into account and tsunamis are computed on a low-resolution grid, the worst-case scenarios are selected and tsunamis are simulated on a finer-resolution grid allowing for a better calculation of coastal wave height and tsunami penetration. The final result of our study is given in the form of aggregate fields computed from individual scenarios. Also interesting is the contribution of the various tsunami sources in different localities along the coast. It is found that the places with the highest level of hazard are the low lands of La Playa south of Catania and of the Bay of Augusta, which is in agreement also with historical

  12. An integrated analysis on source parameters, seismogenic structure and seismic hazard of the 2014 Ms 6.3 Kangding earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Y.

    2016-12-01

    On November 22, 2014, the Ms6.3 Kangding earthquake ended 30 years of history of no strong earthquake at the Xianshuihe fault zone. The focal mechanism and centroid depth of the Kangding earthquake are inverted by teleseismic waveforms and regional seismograms with CAP method. The result shows that the two nodal planes of focal mechanism are 235°/82°/-173° and 144°/83°/-8° respectively, the latter nodal plane should be the ruptured fault plane with a focal depth of 9 km. The rupture process model of the Kangding earthquake is obtained by joint inversion of teleseismic data and regional seismograms. The Kangding earthquake is a bilateral earthquake, and the major rupture zone is within a depth range of 5-15 km, spanning 10 km and 12 km along dip and strike directions, and maximum slip is about 0.5m. Most seismic moment was released during the first 5 s and the magnitude is Mw6.01, smaller than the model determined by InSAR data. The discrepancy between co-seismic rupture models of the Kangding and its Ms 5.8 aftershock and the InSAR model implies significant afterslip deformation occurred in the two weeks after the mainshock. The afterslip released energy equals to an Mw5.9 earthquake and mainly concentrates in the northwest side and the shallower side to the rupture zone. The CFS accumulation near the epicenter of the 2014 Kangding earthquake is increased by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, implying that the Kangding earthquake could be triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake. The CFS at the northwest section of the seismic gap along the Kangding-daofu segment is increased by the Kanding earthquake, and the rupture slip of the Kangding earthquake sequence is too small to release the accumulated strain in the seismic gap. Consequently, the northwest section of the Kangding-daofu seismic gap is under high seismic hazard in the future.

  13. Summary of November 2010 meeting to evaluate turbidite data for constraining the recurrence parameters of great Cascadia earthquakes for the update of national seismic hazard maps

    Frankel, Arthur D.

    2011-01-01

    This report summarizes a meeting of geologists, marine sedimentologists, geophysicists, and seismologists that was held on November 18–19, 2010 at Oregon State University in Corvallis, Oregon. The overall goal of the meeting was to evaluate observations of turbidite deposits to provide constraints on the recurrence time and rupture extent of great Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) earthquakes for the next update of the U.S. national seismic hazard maps (NSHM). The meeting was convened at Oregon State University because this is the major center for collecting and evaluating turbidite evidence of great Cascadia earthquakes by Chris Goldfinger and his colleagues. We especially wanted the participants to see some of the numerous deep sea cores this group has collected that contain the turbidite deposits. Great earthquakes on the CSZ pose a major tsunami, ground-shaking, and ground-failure hazard to the Pacific Northwest. Figure 1 shows a map of the Pacific Northwest with a model for the rupture zone of a moment magnitude Mw 9.0 earthquake on the CSZ and the ground shaking intensity (in ShakeMap format) expected from such an earthquake, based on empirical ground-motion prediction equations. The damaging effects of such an earthquake would occur over a wide swath of the Pacific Northwest and an accompanying tsunami would likely cause devastation along the Pacifc Northwest coast and possibly cause damage and loss of life in other areas of the Pacific. A magnitude 8 earthquake on the CSZ would cause damaging ground shaking and ground failure over a substantial area and could also generate a destructive tsunami. The recent tragic occurrence of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake highlights the importance of having accurate estimates of the recurrence times and magnitudes of great earthquakes on subduction zones. For the U.S. national seismic hazard maps, estimating the hazard from the Cascadia subduction zone has been based on coastal paleoseismic evidence of great

  14. Coulomb Failure Stress Accumulation in Nepal After the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha Earthquake: Testing Earthquake Triggering Hypothesis and Evaluating Seismic Hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiong, N.; Niu, F.

    2017-12-01

    A Mw 7.8 earthquake struck Gorkha, Nepal, on April 5, 2015, resulting in more than 8000 deaths and 3.5 million homeless. The earthquake initiated 70km west of Kathmandu and propagated eastward, rupturing an area of approximately 150km by 60km in size. However, the earthquake failed to fully rupture the locked fault beneath the Himalaya, suggesting that the region south of Kathmandu and west of the current rupture are still locked and a much more powerful earthquake might occur in future. Therefore, the seismic hazard of the unruptured region is of great concern. In this study, we investigated the Coulomb failure stress (CFS) accumulation on the unruptured fault transferred by the Gorkha earthquake and some nearby historical great earthquakes. First, we calculated the co-seismic CFS changes of the Gorkha earthquake on the nodal planes of 16 large aftershocks to quantitatively examine whether they were brought closer to failure by the mainshock. It is shown that at least 12 of the 16 aftershocks were encouraged by an increase of CFS of 0.1-3 MPa. The correspondence between the distribution of off-fault aftershocks and the increased CFS pattern also validates the applicability of the earthquake triggering hypothesis in the thrust regime of Nepal. With the validation as confidence, we calculated the co-seismic CFS change on the locked region imparted by the Gorkha earthquake and historical great earthquakes. A newly proposed ramp-flat-ramp-flat fault geometry model was employed, and the source parameters of historical earthquakes were computed with the empirical scaling relationship. A broad region south of the Kathmandu and west of the current rupture were shown to be positively stressed with CFS change roughly ranging between 0.01 and 0.5 MPa. The maximum of CFS increase (>1MPa) was found in the updip segment south of the current rupture, implying a high seismic hazard. Since the locked region may be additionally stressed by the post-seismic relaxation of the lower

  15. Earthquake Hazard Assessment Based on Geological Data: An approach from Crystalline Terrain of Peninsular India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    John, B.

    2009-04-01

    Earthquake Hazard Assessment Based on Geological Data: An approach from Crystalline Terrain of Peninsular India Biju John National Institute of Rock Mechanics b_johnp@yahoo.co.in Peninsular India was for long considered as seismically stable. But the recent earthquake sequence of Latur (1993), Jabalpur (1997), Bhuj (2001) suggests this region is among one of the active Stable Continental Regions (SCRs) of the world, where the recurrence intervals is of the order of tens of thousands of years. In such areas, earthquake may happen at unexpected locations, devoid of any previous seismicity or dramatic geomorphic features. Even moderate earthquakes will lead to heavy loss of life and property in the present scenario. So it is imperative to map suspected areas to identify active faults and evaluate its activities, which will be a vital input to seismic hazard assessment of SCR area. The region around Wadakkanchery, Kerala, South India has been experiencing micro seismic activities since 1989. Subsequent studies, by the author, identified a 30 km long WNW-ESE trending reverse fault, dipping south (45°), that influenced the drainage system of the area. The macroscopic and microscopic studies of the fault rocks from the exposures near Desamangalam show an episodic nature of faulting. Dislocations of pegmatitic veins across the fault indicate a cumulative dip displacement of 2.1m in the reverse direction. A minimum of four episodes of faulting were identified in this fault based on the cross cutting relations of different structural elements and from the mineralogic changes of different generations of gouge zones. This suggests that an average displacement of 52cm per event might have occurred for each event. A cyclic nature of faulting is identified in this fault zone in which the inter-seismic period is characterized by gouge induration and fracture sealing aided by the prevailing fluids. Available empirical relations connecting magnitude with displacement and rupture

  16. A Geophysical Study of the Cadell Fault Scarp for Earthquake Hazard Assessment in Southeast Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collins, C. D.

    2004-12-01

    The historical record of seismicity in Australia is too short (less than 150 years) to confidently define seismic source zones, particularly the recurrence rates for large, potentially damaging earthquakes, and this leads to uncertainty in hazard assessments. One way to extend this record is to search for evidence of earthquakes in the landscape, including Quaternary fault scarps, tilt blocks and disruptions to drainage patterns. A recent Geoscience Australia compilation of evidence of Quaternary tectonics identified over one hundred examples of potentially recent structures in Australia, testifying to the fact that a greater hazard may exist from large earthquakes than is evident from the recorded history alone. Most of these structures have not been studied in detail and have not been dated, so the recurrence rate for damaging events is unknown. One example of recent tectonic activity lies on the Victoria-New South Wales border, where geologically recent uplift has resulted in the formation of the Cadell Fault Scarp, damming Australia's largest river, the Murray River, and diverting its course. The scarp extends along a north-south strike for at least 50 km and reaches a maximum height of about 13 metres. The scarp displaces sands and clays of the Murray Basin sediments which overlie Palaeozoic bedrock at a depth of 100 to 250 m. There is evidence that the river system has eroded the scarp and displaced the topographic expression away from the location where the fault, or faults, meets the surface. Thus, to locate potential sites for trenching which intersect the faults, Geoscience Australia acquired ground-penetrating radar, resistivity and multi-channel high-resolution seismic reflection and refraction data along traverses across the scarp. The seismic data were acquired using an IVI T15000 MiniVib vibrator operating in p-wave mode, and a 24-channel Stratavisor acquisition system. Four 10-second sweeps, with a frequency range of 10-240 Hz, were carried out

  17. Kinematics, mechanics, and potential earthquake hazards for faults in Pottawatomie County, Kansas, USA

    Ohlmacher, G.C.; Berendsen, P.

    2005-01-01

    Many stable continental regions have subregions with poorly defined earthquake hazards. Analysis of minor structures (folds and faults) in these subregions can improve our understanding of the tectonics and earthquake hazards. Detailed structural mapping in Pottawatomie County has revealed a suite consisting of two uplifted blocks aligned along a northeast trend and surrounded by faults. The first uplift is located southwest of the second. The northwest and southeast sides of these uplifts are bounded by northeast-trending right-lateral faults. To the east, both uplifts are bounded by north-trending reverse faults, and the first uplift is bounded by a north-trending high-angle fault to the west. The structural suite occurs above a basement fault that is part of a series of north-northeast-trending faults that delineate the Humboldt Fault Zone of eastern Kansas, an integral part of the Midcontinent Rift System. The favored kinematic model is a contractional stepover (push-up) between echelon strike-slip faults. Mechanical modeling using the boundary element method supports the interpretation of the uplifts as contractional stepovers and indicates that an approximately east-northeast maximum compressive stress trajectory is responsible for the formation of the structural suite. This stress trajectory suggests potential activity during the Laramide Orogeny, which agrees with the age of kimberlite emplacement in adjacent Riley County. The current stress field in Kansas has a N85??W maximum compressive stress trajectory that could potentially produce earthquakes along the basement faults. Several epicenters of seismic events (

  18. The 2012 Ferrara seismic sequence: Regional crustal structure, earthquake sources, and seismic hazard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malagnini, Luca; Herrmann, Robert B.; Munafò, Irene; Buttinelli, Mauro; Anselmi, Mario; Akinci, Aybige; Boschi, E.

    2012-10-01

    Inadequate seismic design codes can be dangerous, particularly when they underestimate the true hazard. In this study we use data from a sequence of moderate-sized earthquakes in northeast Italy to validate and test a regional wave propagation model which, in turn, is used to understand some weaknesses of the current design spectra. Our velocity model, while regionalized and somewhat ad hoc, is consistent with geophysical observations and the local geology. In the 0.02-0.1 Hz band, this model is validated by using it to calculate moment tensor solutions of 20 earthquakes (5.6 ≥ MW ≥ 3.2) in the 2012 Ferrara, Italy, seismic sequence. The seismic spectra observed for the relatively small main shock significantly exceeded the design spectra to be used in the area for critical structures. Observations and synthetics reveal that the ground motions are dominated by long-duration surface waves, which, apparently, the design codes do not adequately anticipate. In light of our results, the present seismic hazard assessment in the entire Pianura Padana, including the city of Milan, needs to be re-evaluated.

  19. Hazard from far-field tsunami at Hilo: Earthquakes from the Ring of Fire

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arcas, D.; Weiss, R.; Titov, V.

    2007-12-01

    Historical data and modeling are used to study tsunami hazard at Hilo, Hawaii. Hilo has one of the best historical tsunami record in the US. Considering the tsunami observations from the early eighteen hundreds until today reveals that the number of observed events per decade depends on the awareness of tsunami events. The awareness appears to be a function of the observation techniques such as seismometers and communication devices, as well as direct measurements. Three time periods can be identified, in which the number of observed events increases from one event per decade in the first period to 7.7 in the second, to 9.4 events per decade in the third one. A total of 89 events from far-field sources have been encountered. In contrast only 11 events have been observed with sources in the near field. To remove this historical observation bias from the hazard estimate, we have complimented the historical analysis with a modeling study. We have carried out modeling of 1476 individual earthquakes along the subduction zones of the Pacific Ocean in four different magnitude levels (7.5, 8.2, 8.7 and 9.3). The maximum run up and maximum peak at the tide gauge is plotted for the different magnitude levels to reveal sensitive and source areas of tsunami waves for Hilo and a linear scaling of both parameters for small, but non-linear scaling for larger earthquakes

  20. Earthquake hazard analysis for the different regions in and around Ağrı

    SciT

    Bayrak, Erdem, E-mail: erdmbyrk@gmail.com; Yilmaz, Şeyda, E-mail: seydayilmaz@ktu.edu.tr; Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: bayrak@ktu.edu.tr

    We investigated earthquake hazard parameters for Eastern part of Turkey by determining the a and b parameters in a Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relationship. For this purpose, study area is divided into seven different source zones based on their tectonic and seismotectonic regimes. The database used in this work was taken from different sources and catalogues such as TURKNET, International Seismological Centre (ISC), Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) and The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) for instrumental period. We calculated the a value, b value, which is the slope of the frequency–magnitude Gutenberg–Richter relationship, from the maximum likelihoodmore » method (ML). Also, we estimated the mean return periods, the most probable maximum magnitude in the time period of t-years and the probability for an earthquake occurrence for an earthquake magnitude ≥ M during a time span of t-years. We used Zmap software to calculate these parameters. The lowest b value was calculated in Region 1 covered Cobandede Fault Zone. We obtain the highest a value in Region 2 covered Kagizman Fault Zone. This conclusion is strongly supported from the probability value, which shows the largest value (87%) for an earthquake with magnitude greater than or equal to 6.0. The mean return period for such a magnitude is the lowest in this region (49-years). The most probable magnitude in the next 100 years was calculated and we determined the highest value around Cobandede Fault Zone. According to these parameters, Region 1 covered the Cobandede Fault Zone and is the most dangerous area around the Eastern part of Turkey.« less

  1. Earthquake hazard analysis for the different regions in and around Aǧrı

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bayrak, Erdem; Yilmaz, Şeyda; Bayrak, Yusuf

    2016-04-01

    We investigated earthquake hazard parameters for Eastern part of Turkey by determining the a and b parameters in a Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relationship. For this purpose, study area is divided into seven different source zones based on their tectonic and seismotectonic regimes. The database used in this work was taken from different sources and catalogues such as TURKNET, International Seismological Centre (ISC), Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) and The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) for instrumental period. We calculated the a value, b value, which is the slope of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relationship, from the maximum likelihood method (ML). Also, we estimated the mean return periods, the most probable maximum magnitude in the time period of t-years and the probability for an earthquake occurrence for an earthquake magnitude ≥ M during a time span of t-years. We used Zmap software to calculate these parameters. The lowest b value was calculated in Region 1 covered Cobandede Fault Zone. We obtain the highest a value in Region 2 covered Kagizman Fault Zone. This conclusion is strongly supported from the probability value, which shows the largest value (87%) for an earthquake with magnitude greater than or equal to 6.0. The mean return period for such a magnitude is the lowest in this region (49-years). The most probable magnitude in the next 100 years was calculated and we determined the highest value around Cobandede Fault Zone. According to these parameters, Region 1 covered the Cobandede Fault Zone and is the most dangerous area around the Eastern part of Turkey.

  2. Sources of Seismic Hazard in British Columbia: What Controls Earthquakes in the Crust?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balfou, Natalie Joy

    This thesis examines processes causing faulting in the North American crust in the northern Cascadia subduction zone. A combination of seismological methods, including source mechanism determination, stress inversion and earthquake relocations are used to determine where earthquakes occur and what forces influence faulting. We also determine if forces that control faulting can be monitored using seismic anisotropy. Investigating the processes that contribute to faulting in the crust is important because these earthquakes pose significant hazard to the large population centres in British Columbia and Washington State. To determine where crustal earthquakes occur we apply double-difference earthquake relocation techniques to events in the Fraser River Valley, British Columbia, and the San Juan Islands, Washington. This technique is used to identify "hidden" active structures using both catalogue and waveform cross-correlation data. Results have significantly reduced uncertainty over routine catalogue locations and show lineations in areas of clustered seismicity. In the Fraser River Valley these lineations or streaks appear to be hidden structures that do not disrupt near-surface sediments; however, in the San Juan Islands the identified lineation can be related to recently mapped surface expressions of faults. To determine forces that influence faulting we investigate the orientation and sources of stress using Bayesian inversion results from focal mechanism data. More than ˜600 focal mechanisms from crustal earthquakes are calculated to identify the dominant style of faulting and inverted to estimate the principal stress orientations and the stress ratio. Results indicate the maximum horizontal compressive stress (SHmax) orientation changes with distance from the subduction interface, from margin-normal along the coast to margin-parallel further inland. We relate the margin-normal stress direction to subduction-related strain rates due to the locked interface

  3. The use of social media and mobile device applications to disseminate natural hazard information by Natural Resources Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bird, A. L.; Ulmi, M.; Majewski, C.; Hayek, K.; Edwards, W.; McCormack, D. A.; Cole, R. T.; de Paor, D. R.

    2011-12-01

    Public expectation of near-instant and reliable information is constantly rising. Such expectation puts increasing demands on organizations charged with providing the public with information on hazard events in near-real-time, while ensuring quality and accuracy of content. Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) has responded by augmenting existing methods for earthquake information distribution with new and varied methods for relaying natural hazards information. We profile tools now employed operationally by NRCan to distribute earthquake information to emergency measures organizations, news media and the public. Also presented will be an example of a smart-'phone application which includes several tools for natural hazard preparedness and response, supplemented with automated real-time alerts.

  4. Information profiles on potential occupational hazards: benzoin

    SciT

    Not Available

    1981-03-01

    Information on potential occupational hazards from exposure to benzoin was reviewed. Topics discussed included chemical and physical properties, production, uses, manufacturers and distributors, manufacturing processes, occupational exposure, and biological effects. The annual production of benzoin is approximately 90,000 pounds per year with an historical growth rate of about 6% per year. In carcinogenesis studies, the incidence of lymphomas and leukemia in dosed male rats increased with dose level, but not significantly. Mice demonstrated a significant increase in the incidence of lymphomas and leukemias at low dose levels. Bioassays have indicated that benzoin is not carcinogenic to male or female F344-ratsmore » or B6C3F1-mice. No evidence of mutagenicity, teratogenicity, or reproductive effects was found in animal studies. Allergic contact dermatitis has been reported in humans.« less

  5. Satellite Geodetic Constraints On Earthquake Processes: Implications of the 1999 Turkish Earthquakes for Fault Mechanics and Seismic Hazards on the San Andreas Fault

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reilinger, Robert

    2005-01-01

    Our principal activities during the initial phase of this project include: 1) Continued monitoring of postseismic deformation for the 1999 Izmit and Duzce, Turkey earthquakes from repeated GPS survey measurements and expansion of the Marmara Continuous GPS Network (MAGNET), 2) Establishing three North Anatolian fault crossing profiles (10 sitedprofile) at locations that experienced major surface-fault earthquakes at different times in the past to examine strain accumulation as a function of time in the earthquake cycle (2004), 3) Repeat observations of selected sites in the fault-crossing profiles (2005), 4) Repeat surveys of the Marmara GPS network to continue to monitor postseismic deformation, 5) Refining block models for the Marmara Sea seismic gap area to better understand earthquake hazards in the Greater Istanbul area, 6) Continuing development of models for afterslip and distributed viscoelastic deformation for the earthquake cycle. We are keeping close contact with MIT colleagues (Brad Hager, and Eric Hetland) who are developing models for S. California and for the earthquake cycle in general (Hetland, 2006). In addition, our Turkish partners at the Marmara Research Center have undertaken repeat, micro-gravity measurements at the MAGNET sites and have provided us estimates of gravity change during the period 2003 - 2005.

  6. Impact of earthquake source complexity and land elevation data resolution on tsunami hazard assessment and fatality estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muhammad, Ario; Goda, Katsuichiro

    2018-03-01

    This study investigates the impact of model complexity in source characterization and digital elevation model (DEM) resolution on the accuracy of tsunami hazard assessment and fatality estimation through a case study in Padang, Indonesia. Two types of earthquake source models, i.e. complex and uniform slip models, are adopted by considering three resolutions of DEMs, i.e. 150 m, 50 m, and 10 m. For each of the three grid resolutions, 300 complex source models are generated using new statistical prediction models of earthquake source parameters developed from extensive finite-fault models of past subduction earthquakes, whilst 100 uniform slip models are constructed with variable fault geometry without slip heterogeneity. The results highlight that significant changes to tsunami hazard and fatality estimates are observed with regard to earthquake source complexity and grid resolution. Coarse resolution (i.e. 150 m) leads to inaccurate tsunami hazard prediction and fatality estimation, whilst 50-m and 10-m resolutions produce similar results. However, velocity and momentum flux are sensitive to the grid resolution and hence, at least 10-m grid resolution needs to be implemented when considering flow-based parameters for tsunami hazard and risk assessments. In addition, the results indicate that the tsunami hazard parameters and fatality number are more sensitive to the complexity of earthquake source characterization than the grid resolution. Thus, the uniform models are not recommended for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessments. Finally, the findings confirm that uncertainties of tsunami hazard level and fatality in terms of depth, velocity and momentum flux can be captured and visualized through the complex source modeling approach. From tsunami risk management perspectives, this indeed creates big data, which are useful for making effective and robust decisions.

  7. The Effects of the Passage of Time from the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake on the Public's Anxiety about a Variety of Hazards.

    PubMed

    Nakayachi, Kazuya; Nagaya, Kazuhisa

    2016-08-31

    This research investigated whether the Japanese people's anxiety about a variety of hazards, including earthquakes and nuclear accidents, has changed over time since the Tohoku Earthquake in 2011. Data from three nationwide surveys conducted in 2008, 2012, and 2015 were compared to see the change in societal levels of anxiety toward 51 types of hazards. The same two-phase stratified random sampling method was used to create the list of participants in each survey. The results showed that anxiety about earthquakes and nuclear accidents had increased for a time after the Tohoku Earthquake, and then decreased after a four-year time frame with no severe earthquakes and nuclear accidents. It was also revealed that the anxiety level for some hazards other than earthquakes and nuclear accidents had decreased at ten months after the Earthquake, and then remained unchanged after the four years. Therefore, ironically, a major disaster might decrease the public anxiety in general at least for several years.

  8. Hazardous Materials Information System (HMIS) Data Quality Review

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1997-05-01

    The Hazardous Materials Information System (HMIS) is used to manage data required for the use, transportation, storage and disposal of hazardous material by the US Government. In response to concerns expressed by some users, DORO was tasked to conduc...

  9. End-User Applications of Real-Time Earthquake Information in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cua, G. B.; Gasparini, P.; Giardini, D.; Zschau, J.; Filangieri, A. R.; Reakt Wp7 Team

    2011-12-01

    The primary objective of European FP7 project REAKT (Strategies and Tools for Real-Time Earthquake Risk Reduction) is to improve the efficiency of real-time earthquake risk mitigation methods and their capability of protecting structures, infrastructures, and populations. REAKT aims to address the issues of real-time earthquake hazard and response from end-to-end, with efforts directed along the full spectrum of methodology development in earthquake forecasting, earthquake early warning, and real-time vulnerability systems, through optimal decision-making, and engagement and cooperation of scientists and end users for the establishment of best practices for use of real-time information. Twelve strategic test cases/end users throughout Europe have been selected. This diverse group of applications/end users includes civil protection authorities, railway systems, hospitals, schools, industrial complexes, nuclear plants, lifeline systems, national seismic networks, and critical structures. The scale of target applications covers a wide range, from two school complexes in Naples, to individual critical structures, such as the Rion Antirion bridge in Patras, and the Fatih Sultan Mehmet bridge in Istanbul, to large complexes, such as the SINES industrial complex in Portugal and the Thessaloniki port area, to distributed lifeline and transportation networks and nuclear plants. Some end-users are interested in in-depth feasibility studies for use of real-time information and development of rapid response plans, while others intend to install real-time instrumentation and develop customized automated control systems. From the onset, REAKT scientists and end-users will work together on concept development and initial implementation efforts using the data products and decision-making methodologies developed with the goal of improving end-user risk mitigation. The aim of this scientific/end-user partnership is to ensure that scientific efforts are applicable to operational

  10. Combining Real-time Seismic and Geodetic Data to Improve Rapid Earthquake Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murray, M. H.; Neuhauser, D. S.; Gee, L. S.; Dreger, D. S.; Basset, A.; Romanowicz, B.

    2002-12-01

    The Berkeley Seismological Laboratory operates seismic and geodetic stations in the San Francisco Bay area and northern California for earthquake and deformation monitoring. The seismic systems, part of the Berkeley Digital Seismic Network (BDSN), include strong motion and broadband sensors, and 24-bit dataloggers. The data from 20 GPS stations, part of the Bay Area Regional Deformation (BARD) network of more than 70 stations in northern California, are acquired in real-time. We have developed methods to acquire GPS data at 12 stations that are collocated with the seismic systems using the seismic dataloggers, which have large on-site data buffer and storage capabilities, merge it with the seismic data stream in MiniSeed format, and continuously stream both data types using reliable frame relay and/or radio modem telemetry. Currently, the seismic data are incorporated into the Rapid Earthquake Data Integration (REDI) project to provide notification of earthquake magnitude, location, moment tensor, and strong motion information for hazard mitigation and emergency response activities. The geodetic measurements can provide complementary constraints on earthquake faulting, including the location and extent of the rupture plane, unambiguous resolution of the nodal plane, and distribution of slip on the fault plane, which can be used, for example, to refine strong motion shake maps. We are developing methods to rapidly process the geodetic data to monitor transient deformation, such as coseismic station displacements, and for combining this information with the seismic observations to improve finite-fault characterization of large earthquakes. The GPS data are currently processed at hourly intervals with 2-cm precision in horizontal position, and we are beginning a pilot project in the Bay Area in collaboration with the California Spatial Reference Center to do epoch-by-epoch processing with greater precision.

  11. Source of 1629 Banda Mega-Thrust Earthquake and Tsunami: Implications for Tsunami Hazard Evaluation in Eastern Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Major, J. R.; Liu, Z.; Harris, R. A.; Fisher, T. L.

    2011-12-01

    Using Dutch records of geophysical events in Indonesia over the past 400 years, and tsunami modeling, we identify tsunami sources that have caused severe devastation in the past and are likely to reoccur in the near future. The earthquake history of Western Indonesia has received much attention since the 2004 Sumatra earthquakes and subsequent events. However, strain rates along a variety of plate boundary segments are just as high in eastern Indonesia where the earthquake history has not been investigated. Due to the rapid population growth in this region it is essential and urgent to evaluate its earthquake and tsunami hazards. Arthur Wichmann's 'Earthquakes of the Indian Archipelago' shows that there were 30 significant earthquakes and 29 tsunami between 1629 to 1877. One of the largest and best documented is the great earthquake and tsunami effecting the Banda islands on 1 August, 1629. It caused severe damage from a 15 m tsunami that arrived at the Banda Islands about a half hour after the earthquake. The earthquake was also recorded 230 km away in Ambon, but no tsunami is mentioned. This event was followed by at least 9 years of aftershocks. The combination of these observations indicates that the earthquake was most likely a mega-thrust event. We use a numerical simulation of the tsunami to locate the potential sources of the 1629 mega-thrust event and evaluate the tsunami hazard in Eastern Indonesia. The numerical simulation was tested to establish the tsunami run-up amplification factor for this region by tsunami simulations of the 1992 Flores Island (Hidayat et al., 1995) and 2006 Java (Katoet al., 2007) earthquake events. The results yield a tsunami run-up amplification factor of 1.5 and 3, respectively. However, the Java earthquake is a unique case of slow rupture that was hardly felt. The fault parameters of recent earthquakes in the Banda region are used for the models. The modeling narrows the possibilities of mega-thrust events the size of the one

  12. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Iraq Using Complete Earthquake Catalogue Files

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ameer, A. S.; Sharma, M. L.; Wason, H. R.; Alsinawi, S. A.

    2005-05-01

    Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been carried out for Iraq. The earthquake catalogue used in the present study covers an area between latitude 29° 38.5° N and longitude 39° 50° E containing more than a thousand events for the period 1905 2000. The entire Iraq region has been divided into thirteen seismogenic sources based on their seismic characteristics, geological setting and tectonic framework. The completeness of the seismicity catalogue has been checked using the method proposed by Stepp (1972). The analysis of completeness shows that the earthquake catalogue is not complete below Ms=4.8 for all of Iraq and seismic source zones S1, S4, S5, and S8, while it varies for the other seismic zones. A statistical treatment of completeness of the data file was carried out in each of the magnitude classes. The Frequency Magnitude Distributions (FMD) for the study area including all seismic source zones were established and the minimum magnitude of complete reporting (Mc) were then estimated. For the entire Iraq the Mc was estimated to be about Ms=4.0 while S11 shows the lowest Mc to be about Ms=3.5 and the highest Mc of about Ms=4.2 was observed for S4. The earthquake activity parameters (activity rate λ, b value, maximum regional magnitude mmax) as well as the mean return period (R) with a certain lower magnitude mmin ≥ m along with their probability of occurrence have been determined for all thirteen seismic source zones of Iraq. The maximum regional magnitude mmax was estimated as 7.87 ± 0.86 for entire Iraq. The return period for magnitude 6.0 is largest for source zone S3 which is estimated to be 705 years while the smallest value is estimated as 9.9 years for all of Iraq.

  13. New Seafloor Map of the Puerto Rico Trench Helps Assess Earthquake and Tsunami Hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    ten Brink, Uri; Danforth, William; Polloni, Christopher; Andrews, Brian; Llanes, Pilar; Smith, Shepard; Parker, Eugene; Uozumi, Toshihiko

    2004-09-01

    The Puerto Rico Trench, the deepest part of the Atlantic Ocean, is located where the North American (NOAM) plate is subducting under the Caribbean plate (Figure 1). The trench region may pose significant seismic and tsunami hazards to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, where 4 million U.S. citizens reside. Widespread damage in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola from an earthquake in 1787 was estimated to be the result of a magnitude 8 earthquake north of the islands. A tsunami killed 40 people in NW Puerto Rico following a magnitude 7.3 earthquake in 1918. Large landslide escarpments have been mapped on the seafloor north of Puerto Rico, although their ages are unknown. The Puerto Rico Trench is atypical of oceanic trenches. Subduction is highly oblique (10°-20°) to the trench axis with a large component of left-lateral strike-slip motion. Similar convergence geometry is observed at the Challenger Deep in the Mariana Trench, the deepest point on Earth. In addition to its extremely deep seafloor, the Puerto Rico Trench is also characterized by the most negative free-air gravity anomaly on Earth, -380 mGal, located 50 km south of the trench, where water depth is 7950 m (Figure 2). A tilted carbonate platform provides evidence for extreme vertical tectonism in the region. This platform was horizontally deposited over Cretaceous to Paleocene arc rocks starting in the Late Oligocene. Then, at 3.5 Ma, the carbonate platform was tilted by 4° toward the trench over a time period of less than 40 kyr, such that its northern edge is at a depth of 4000 m and its reconstructed elevation on land in Puerto Rico is at +1300 m (Figures 1 and 2).

  14. Earthquake recordings from the 2002 Seattle Seismic Hazard Investigation of Puget Sound (SHIPS), Washington State

    Pratt, Thomas L.; Meagher, Karen L.; Brocher, Thomas M.; Yelin, Thomas; Norris, Robert; Hultgrien, Lynn; Barnett, Elizabeth; Weaver, Craig S.

    2003-01-01

    This report describes seismic data obtained during the fourth Seismic Hazard Investigation of Puget Sound (SHIPS) experiment, termed Seattle SHIPS . The experiment was designed to study the influence of the Seattle sedimentary basin on ground shaking during earthquakes. To accomplish this, we deployed seismometers over the basin to record local earthquakes, quarry blasts, and teleseisms during the period of January 26 to May 27, 2002. We plan to analyze the recordings to compute spectral amplitudes at each site, to determine the variability of ground motions over the basin. During the Seattle SHIPS experiment, seismometers were deployed at 87 sites in a 110-km-long east-west line, three north-south lines, and a grid throughout the Seattle urban area (Figure 1). At each of these sites, an L-22, 2-Hz velocity transducer was installed and connected to a REF TEK Digital Acquisition System (DAS), both provided by the Program for Array Seismic Studies of the Continental Lithosphere (PASSCAL) of the Incorporated Research Institutes for Seismology (IRIS). The instruments were installed on January 26 and 27, and were retrieved gradually between April 18 and May 27. All instruments continuously sampled all three components of motion (velocity) at a sample rate of 50 samples/sec. To ensure accurate computations of amplitude, we calibrated the geophones in situ to obtain the instrument responses. In this report, we discuss the acquisition of these data, we describe the processing and merging of these data into 1-hour long traces and into windowed events, we discuss the geophone calibration process and its results, and we display some of the earthquake recordings.

  15. PEER - National Information Service for Earthquake Engineering - NISEE

    Information Service for Earthquake Engineering - NISEE The NISEE/PEER Library is an affiliated library of the Field Station, five miles from the main Berkeley campus. Address NISEE/PEER Library, University of Regents Hours Monday - Friday, 9:00 am - 1:00 pm Open to the public NISEE/PEER Library home page. 325

  16. Site specific seismic hazard analysis and determination of response spectra of Kolkata for maximum considered earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shiuly, Amit; Sahu, R. B.; Mandal, Saroj

    2017-06-01

    This paper presents site specific seismic hazard analysis of Kolkata city, former capital of India and present capital of state West Bengal, situated on the world’s largest delta island, Bengal basin. For this purpose, peak ground acceleration (PGA) for a maximum considered earthquake (MCE) at bedrock level has been estimated using an artificial neural network (ANN) based attenuation relationship developed on the basis of synthetic ground motion data for the region. Using the PGA corresponding to the MCE, a spectrum compatible acceleration time history at bedrock level has been generated by using a wavelet based computer program, WAVEGEN. This spectrum compatible time history at bedrock level has been converted to the same at surface level using SHAKE2000 for 144 borehole locations in the study region. Using the predicted values of PGA and PGV at the surface, corresponding contours for the region have been drawn. For the MCE, the PGA at bedrock level of Kolkata city has been obtained as 0.184 g, while that at the surface level varies from 0.22 g to 0.37 g. Finally, Kolkata has been subdivided into eight seismic subzones, and for each subzone a response spectrum equation has been derived using polynomial regression analysis. This will be very helpful for structural and geotechnical engineers to design safe and economical earthquake resistant structures.

  17. An Arduino project to record ground motion and to learn on earthquake hazard at high school

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saraò, Angela; Barnaba, Carla; Clocchiatti, Marco; Zuliani, David

    2015-04-01

    Through a multidisciplinary work that integrates Technology education with Earth Sciences, we implemented an educational program to raise the students' awareness of seismic hazard and to disseminate good practices of earthquake safety. Using free software and low-cost open hardware, the students of a senior class of the high school Liceo Paschini in Tolmezzo (NE Italy) implemented a seismograph using the Arduino open-source electronics platform and the ADXL345 sensors to emulate a low cost seismometer (e.g. O-NAVI sensor of the Quake-Catcher Network, http://qcn.stanford.edu). To accomplish their task the students were addressed to use the web resources for technical support and troubleshooting. Shell scripts, running on local computers under Linux OS, controlled the process of recording and display data. The main part of the experiment was documented using the DokuWiki style. Some propaedeutic lessons in computer sciences and electronics were needed to build up the necessary skills of the students and to fill in the gap of their background knowledge. In addition lectures by seismologists and laboratory activity allowed the class to exploit different aspects of the physics of the earthquake and particularly of the seismic waves, and to become familiar with the topics of seismic hazard through an inquiry-based learning. The Arduino seismograph achieved can be used for educational purposes and it can display tremors on the local network of the school. For sure it can record the ground motion due to a seismic event that can occur in the area, but further improvements are necessary for a quantitative analysis of the recorded signals.

  18. The Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP): Rift Processes and Earthquake Hazards in the Salton Trough (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hole, J. A.; Stock, J. M.; Fuis, G. S.; Rymer, M. J.; Murphy, J. M.; Sickler, R. R.; Criley, C. J.; Goldman, M.; Catchings, R. D.; Ricketts, J. W.; Gonzalez-Fernandez, A.; Driscoll, N.; Kent, G.; Harding, A. J.; Klemperer, S. L.

    2009-12-01

    The Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) and coordinated projects will acquire seismic data in and across the Salton Trough in southern California and northern Mexico, including the Coachella, Imperial, and Mexicali Valleys. These projects address both rifting processes at the northern end of the Gulf of California extensional province and earthquake hazards at the southern end of the San Andreas Fault system. In the central Salton Trough, North American lithosphere appears to have been rifted completely apart. Based primarily on a 1979 seismic refraction project, the 20-22 km thick crust is apparently composed entirely of new crust added by magmatism from below and sedimentation from above. The new data will constrain the style of continental breakup, the role and mode of magmatism, the effects of rapid Colorado River sedimentation upon extension and magmatism, and the partitioning of oblique extension. The southernmost San Andreas Fault is considered at high risk of producing a large damaging earthquake, yet structures of the fault and adjacent basins are poorly constrained. To improve hazard models, SSIP will image the geometry of the San Andreas and Imperial Faults, structure of sedimentary basins in the Salton Trough, and three-dimensional seismic velocity of the crust and uppermost mantle. SSIP and collaborating projects have been funded by several different programs at NSF and the USGS. These projects include seven lines of land refraction and low-fold reflection data, airguns and OBS data in the Salton Sea, coordinated fieldwork for onshore-offshore and 3-D data, and a densely sampled line of broadband stations across the trough. Fieldwork is tentatively scheduled for 2010. Preliminary work in 2009 included calibration shots in the Imperial Valley that quantified strong ground motion and proved lack of harm to agricultural irrigation tile drains from explosive shots. Piggyback and complementary studies are encouraged.

  19. Seismic Awareness : Transportation Facilities : A Primer for Transportation Managers on Earthquake Hazards and Measures for Reducing Vulnerability

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1993-12-01

    The purpose of this report is to alert managers and operators of transportation enterprises, in both the public and private sector, to the dangers of earthquakes to buildings and possible precautions to be taken. The nature of seismic hazards in the ...

  20. Marine and land active-source seismic investigation of geothermal potential, tectonic structure, and earthquake hazards in Pyramid Lake, Nevada

    SciT

    Eisses, A.; Kell, A.; Kent, G.

    Amy Eisses, Annie M. Kell, Graham Kent, Neal W. Driscoll, Robert E. Karlin, Robert L. Baskin, John N. Louie, Kenneth D. Smith, Sathish Pullammanappallil, 2011, Marine and land active-source seismic investigation of geothermal potential, tectonic structure, and earthquake hazards in Pyramid Lake, Nevada: presented at American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, Dec. 5-9, abstract NS14A-08.

  1. Earthquake information products and tools from the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS)

    Wald, Lisa

    2006-01-01

    This Fact Sheet provides a brief description of postearthquake tools and products provided by the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) through the U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program. The focus is on products specifically aimed at providing situational awareness in the period immediately following significant earthquake events.

  2. Effective communication of information about chemical hazards.

    PubMed

    Lee, T R

    1986-05-01

    Given that the best available means have been used to assess the risks arising from a chemical process or product, it is a crucial aspect of management to inform the employees and the public. This task of communicating may fall to industry, government, regulating authority, professional association or an environmental protection group. It requires some understanding of the public's perceptions of the risks involved and an ethical duty to try to modify attitudes judged to be either over-anxious or complacent. There is as yet no structured knowledge on communication about chemical hazards as such. Also, circumstances vary enormously. Hence, this paper deploys the general analytic framework constructed within social psychology and reviews the extensive experimental research (and some field studies) with the aim of providing understanding and some guidance. It considers the basic modelling of attitude change as induced by printed or verbal communications. The variables influencing the effectiveness of communications are divided into: the source (e.g. his/her credibility, power or attractiveness); the message (e.g. emotional versus logical; one-sided versus both-sided arguments); and modality or media effects (e.g. spoken versus written; the mass media; campaigns).

  3. Persistency of rupture directivity in moderate-magnitude earthquakes in Italy: Implications for seismic hazard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rovelli, A.; Calderoni, G.

    2012-12-01

    to L'Aquila faults, was characterized by normal-faulting earthquakes with strike substantially parallel to the Apennine trend. Although the amount of data is not as abundant as for the most recent earthquakes, the available data were already object of previous studies indicating unilateral rupture propagation in several of the strongest (5.5 < Mw < 6.0) shocks. We show that the effect of directivity is particularly significant in intermontane basins where long-period (T > 1 sec) ground motions are amplified by soft sediments and the combination of local amplification with source directivity causes exceedance of spectral ordinates at those periods up to more than 2 standard deviations from the expected values of commonly used GMPEs for soft sites. These results arise a concern in terms of seismic hazard because source directivity is found to be recurrent feature in the Apennines. Moreover, the predominant fault strike and intermontane basins are both aligned along the Apennine chain offering a condition potentially favorable to extra-amplifications at periods relevant to seismic risk.

  4. A Poisson method application to the assessment of the earthquake hazard in the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey

    SciT

    Türker, Tuğba, E-mail: tturker@ktu.edu.tr; Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: ybayrak@agri.edu.tr

    North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is one from the most important strike-slip fault zones in the world and located among regions in the highest seismic activity. The NAFZ observed very large earthquakes from the past to present. The aim of this study; the important parameters of Gutenberg-Richter relationship (a and b values) estimated and this parameters taking into account, earthquakes were examined in the between years 1900-2015 for 10 different seismic source regions in the NAFZ. After that estimated occurrence probabilities and return periods of occurring earthquakes in fault zone in the next years, and is being assessed with Poisson methodmore » the earthquake hazard of the NAFZ. The Region 2 were observed the largest earthquakes for the only historical period and hasn’t been observed large earthquake for the instrumental period in this region. Two historical earthquakes (1766, M{sub S}=7.3 and 1897, M{sub S}=7.0) are included for Region 2 (Marmara Region) where a large earthquake is expected in the next years. The 10 different seismic source regions are determined the relationships between the cumulative number-magnitude which estimated a and b parameters with the equation of LogN=a-bM in the Gutenberg-Richter. A homogenous earthquake catalog for M{sub S} magnitude which is equal or larger than 4.0 is used for the time period between 1900 and 2015. The database of catalog used in the study has been created from International Seismological Center (ISC) and Boğazici University Kandilli observation and earthquake research institute (KOERI). The earthquake data were obtained until from 1900 to 1974 from KOERI and ISC until from 1974 to 2015 from KOERI. The probabilities of the earthquake occurring are estimated for the next 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 and 100 years in the 10 different seismic source regions. The highest earthquake occur probabilities in 10 different seismic source regions in the next years estimated that the region Tokat-Erzincan (Region 9

  5. Significant earthquakes on the Enriquillo fault system, Hispaniola, 1500-2010: Implications for seismic hazard

    Bakun, William H.; Flores, Claudia H.; ten Brink, Uri S.

    2012-01-01

    Historical records indicate frequent seismic activity along the north-east Caribbean plate boundary over the past 500 years, particularly on the island of Hispaniola. We use accounts of historical earthquakes to assign intensities and the intensity assignments for the 2010 Haiti earthquakes to derive an intensity attenuation relation for Hispaniola. The intensity assignments and the attenuation relation are used in a grid search to find source locations and magnitudes that best fit the intensity assignments. Here we describe a sequence of devastating earthquakes on the Enriquillo fault system in the eighteenth century. An intensity magnitude MI 6.6 earthquake in 1701 occurred near the location of the 2010 Haiti earthquake, and the accounts of the shaking in the 1701 earthquake are similar to those of the 2010 earthquake. A series of large earthquakes migrating from east to west started with the 18 October 1751 MI 7.4–7.5 earthquake, probably located near the eastern end of the fault in the Dominican Republic, followed by the 21 November 1751 MI 6.6 earthquake near Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and the 3 June 1770 MI 7.5 earthquake west of the 2010 earthquake rupture. The 2010 Haiti earthquake may mark the beginning of a new cycle of large earthquakes on the Enriquillo fault system after 240 years of seismic quiescence. The entire Enriquillo fault system appears to be seismically active; Haiti and the Dominican Republic should prepare for future devastating earthquakes.

  6. Geospatial Information is the Cornerstone of Effective Hazards Response

    Newell, Mark

    2008-01-01

    Every day there are hundreds of natural disasters world-wide. Some are dramatic, whereas others are barely noticeable. A natural disaster is commonly defined as a natural event with catastrophic consequences for living things in the vicinity. Those events include earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, landslides, tsunami, volcanoes, and wildfires. Man-made disasters are events that are caused by man either intentionally or by accident, and that directly or indirectly threaten public health and well-being. These occurrences span the spectrum from terrorist attacks to accidental oil spills. To assist in responding to natural and potential man-made disasters, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has established the Geospatial Information Response Team (GIRT) (http://www.usgs.gov/emergency/). The primary purpose of the GIRT is to ensure rapid coordination and availability of geospatial information for effective response by emergency responders, and land and resource managers, and for scientific analysis. The GIRT is responsible for establishing monitoring procedures for geospatial data acquisition, processing, and archiving; discovery, access, and delivery of data; anticipating geospatial needs; and providing relevant geospatial products and services. The GIRT is focused on supporting programs, offices, other agencies, and the public in mission response to hazards. The GIRT will leverage the USGS Geospatial Liaison Network and partnerships with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), and Northern Command (NORTHCOM) to coordinate the provisioning and deployment of USGS geospatial data, products, services, and equipment. The USGS geospatial liaisons will coordinate geospatial information sharing with State, local, and tribal governments, and ensure geospatial liaison back-up support procedures are in place. The GIRT will coordinate disposition of USGS staff in support of DHS response center activities as requested by DHS. The GIRT

  7. Performance of Real-time Earthquake Information System in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakamura, H.; Horiuchi, S.; Wu, C.; Yamamoto, S.

    2008-12-01

    Horiuchi et al. (2005) developed a real-time earthquake information system (REIS) using Hi-net, a densely deployed nationwide seismic network, which consists of about 800 stations operated by NIED, Japan. REIS determines hypocenter locations and earthquake magnitudes automatically within a few seconds after P waves arrive at the closest station and calculates focal mechanisms within about 15 seconds. Obtained hypocenter parameters are transferred immediately by using XML format to a computer in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), who started the service of EEW to special users in June 2005. JMA also developed EEW using 200 stations. The results by the two systems are merged. Among all the first issued EEW reports by both systems, REIS information accounts for about 80 percent. This study examines the rapidity and credibility of REIS by analyzing the 4050 earthquakes which occurred around the Japan Islands since 2005 with magnitude larger than 3.0. REIS re-determines hypocenter parameters every one second according to the revision of waveform data. Here, we discuss only about the results by the first reports. On rapidness, our results show that about 44 percent of the first reports are issued within 5 seconds after the P waves arrives at the closest stations. Note that this 5-second time window includes time delay due to data package and transmission delay of about 2 seconds. REIS waits till two stations detect P waves for events in the network but four stations outside the network so as to get reliable solutions. For earthquakes with hypocentral distance less than 100km, 55 percent of earthquakes are warned in 5 seconds and 87 percent are warned in 10 seconds. Most of events having long time delay are small and triggered by S wave arrivals. About 80 percent of events have difference in epicenter distances less than 20km relative to JMA manually determined locations. Because of the existence of large lateral heterogeneity in seismic velocity, the difference depends

  8. GPS Imaging of Time-Variable Earthquake Hazard: The Hilton Creek Fault, Long Valley California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammond, W. C.; Blewitt, G.

    2016-12-01

    The Hilton Creek Fault, in Long Valley, California is a down-to-the-east normal fault that bounds the eastern edge of the Sierra Nevada/Great Valley microplate, and lies half inside and half outside the magmatically active caldera. Despite the dense coverage with GPS networks, the rapid and time-variable surface deformation attributable to sporadic magmatic inflation beneath the resurgent dome makes it difficult to use traditional geodetic methods to estimate the slip rate of the fault. While geologic studies identify cumulative offset, constrain timing of past earthquakes, and constrain a Quaternary slip rate to within 1-5 mm/yr, it is not currently possible to use geologic data to evaluate how the potential for slip correlates with transient caldera inflation. To estimate time-variable seismic hazard of the fault we estimate its instantaneous slip rate from GPS data using a new set of algorithms for robust estimation of velocity and strain rate fields and fault slip rates. From the GPS time series, we use the robust MIDAS algorithm to obtain time series of velocity that are highly insensitive to the effects of seasonality, outliers and steps in the data. We then use robust imaging of the velocity field to estimate a gridded time variable velocity field. Then we estimate fault slip rate at each time using a new technique that forms ad-hoc block representations that honor fault geometries, network complexity, connectivity, but does not require labor-intensive drawing of block boundaries. The results are compared to other slip rate estimates that have implications for hazard over different time scales. Time invariant long term seismic hazard is proportional to the long term slip rate accessible from geologic data. Contemporary time-invariant hazard, however, may differ from the long term rate, and is estimated from the geodetic velocity field that has been corrected for the effects of magmatic inflation in the caldera using a published model of a dipping ellipsoidal

  9. Probabilistic Appraisal of Earthquake Hazard Parameters Deduced from a Bayesian Approach in the Northwest Frontier of the Himalayas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yadav, R. B. S.; Tsapanos, T. M.; Bayrak, Yusuf; Koravos, G. Ch.

    2013-03-01

    A straightforward Bayesian statistic is applied in five broad seismogenic source zones of the northwest frontier of the Himalayas to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters (maximum regional magnitude M max, β value of G-R relationship and seismic activity rate or intensity λ). For this purpose, a reliable earthquake catalogue which is homogeneous for M W ≥ 5.0 and complete during the period 1900 to 2010 is compiled. The Hindukush-Pamir Himalaya zone has been further divided into two seismic zones of shallow ( h ≤ 70 km) and intermediate depth ( h > 70 km) according to the variation of seismicity with depth in the subduction zone. The estimated earthquake hazard parameters by Bayesian approach are more stable and reliable with low standard deviations than other approaches, but the technique is more time consuming. In this study, quantiles of functions of distributions of true and apparent magnitudes for future time intervals of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years are calculated with confidence limits for probability levels of 50, 70 and 90 % in all seismogenic source zones. The zones of estimated M max greater than 8.0 are related to the Sulaiman-Kirthar ranges, Hindukush-Pamir Himalaya and Himalayan Frontal Thrusts belt; suggesting more seismically hazardous regions in the examined area. The lowest value of M max (6.44) has been calculated in Northern-Pakistan and Hazara syntaxis zone which have estimated lowest activity rate 0.0023 events/day as compared to other zones. The Himalayan Frontal Thrusts belt exhibits higher earthquake magnitude (8.01) in next 100-years with 90 % probability level as compared to other zones, which reveals that this zone is more vulnerable to occurrence of a great earthquake. The obtained results in this study are directly useful for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the examined region of Himalaya.

  10. Insight into the Earthquake Risk Information Seeking Behavior of the Victims: Evidence from Songyuan, China

    PubMed Central

    Li, Shasha; Zhai, Guofang; Zhou, Shutian; Fan, Chenjing; Wu, Yunqing; Ren, Chongqiang

    2017-01-01

    Efficient risk communication is a vital way to reduce the vulnerability of individuals when facing emergency risks, especially regarding earthquakes. Efficient risk communication aims at improving the supply of risk information and fulfilling the need for risk information by individuals. Therefore, an investigation into individual-level information seeking behavior within earthquake risk contexts is very important for improved earthquake risk communication. However, at present there are very few studies that have explored the behavior of individuals seeking earthquake risk information. Under the guidance of the Risk Information Seeking and Processing model as well as relevant practical findings using the structural equation model, this study attempts to explore the main determinants of an individual’s earthquake risk information seeking behavior, and to validate the mediator effect of information need during the seeking process. A questionnaire-based survey of 918 valid respondents in Songyuan, China, who had been hit by a small earthquake swarm, was used to provide practical evidence for this study. Results indicated that information need played a noteworthy role in the earthquake risk information seeking process, and was detected both as an immediate predictor and as a mediator. Informational subjective norms drive the seeking behavior on earthquake risk information through both direct and indirect approaches. Perceived information gathering capacity, negative affective responses and risk perception have an indirect effect on earthquake risk information seeking behavior via information need. The implications for theory and practice regarding risk communication are discussed and concluded. PMID:28272359

  11. Insight into the Earthquake Risk Information Seeking Behavior of the Victims: Evidence from Songyuan, China.

    PubMed

    Li, Shasha; Zhai, Guofang; Zhou, Shutian; Fan, Chenjing; Wu, Yunqing; Ren, Chongqiang

    2017-03-07

    Efficient risk communication is a vital way to reduce the vulnerability of individuals when facing emergency risks, especially regarding earthquakes. Efficient risk communication aims at improving the supply of risk information and fulfilling the need for risk information by individuals. Therefore, an investigation into individual-level information seeking behavior within earthquake risk contexts is very important for improved earthquake risk communication. However, at present there are very few studies that have explored the behavior of individuals seeking earthquake risk information. Under the guidance of the Risk Information Seeking and Processing model as well as relevant practical findings using the structural equation model, this study attempts to explore the main determinants of an individual's earthquake risk information seeking behavior, and to validate the mediator effect of information need during the seeking process. A questionnaire-based survey of 918 valid respondents in Songyuan, China, who had been hit by a small earthquake swarm, was used to provide practical evidence for this study. Results indicated that information need played a noteworthy role in the earthquake risk information seeking process, and was detected both as an immediate predictor and as a mediator. Informational subjective norms drive the seeking behavior on earthquake risk information through both direct and indirect approaches. Perceived information gathering capacity, negative affective responses and risk perception have an indirect effect on earthquake risk information seeking behavior via information need. The implications for theory and practice regarding risk communication are discussed and concluded.

  12. Geophysical setting of the February 21, 2008 Mw 6 Wells earthquake, Nevada, and implications for earthquake hazards

    Ponce, David A.; Watt, Janet T.; Bouligand, C.

    2011-01-01

    We utilize gravity and magnetic methods to investigate the regional geophysical setting of the Wells earthquake. In particular, we delineate major crustal structures that may have played a role in the location of the earthquake and discuss the geometry of a nearby sedimentary basin that may have contributed to observed ground shaking. The February 21, 2008 Mw 6.0 Wells earthquake, centered about 10 km northeast of Wells, Nevada, caused considerable damage to local buildings, especially in the historic old town area. The earthquake occurred on a previously unmapped normal fault and preliminary relocated events indicate a fault plane dipping about 55 degrees to the southeast. The epicenter lies near the intersection of major Basin and Range normal faults along the Ruby Mountains and Snake Mountains, and strike-slip faults in the southern Snake Mountains. Regionally, the Wells earthquake epicenter is aligned with a crustal-scale boundary along the edge of a basement gravity high that correlates to the Ruby Mountains fault zone. The Wells earthquake also occurred near a geophysically defined strike-slip fault that offsets buried plutonic rocks by about 30 km. In addition, a new depth-to-basement map, derived from the inversion of gravity data, indicates that the Wells earthquake and most of its associated aftershock sequence lie below a small oval- to rhomboid-shaped basin, that reaches a depth of about 2 km. Although the basin is of limited areal extent, it could have contributed to increased ground shaking in the vicinity of the city of Wells, Nevada, due to basin amplification of seismic waves.

  13. 24 CFR 35.130 - Lead hazard information pamphlet.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... and Urban Development LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES General Lead-Based Paint Requirements and Definitions for All Programs. § 35.130 Lead hazard information... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Lead hazard information pamphlet...

  14. 24 CFR 35.130 - Lead hazard information pamphlet.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... and Urban Development LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES General Lead-Based Paint Requirements and Definitions for All Programs. § 35.130 Lead hazard information... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Lead hazard information pamphlet...

  15. 24 CFR 35.130 - Lead hazard information pamphlet.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... and Urban Development LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES General Lead-Based Paint Requirements and Definitions for All Programs. § 35.130 Lead hazard information... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Lead hazard information pamphlet...

  16. 24 CFR 35.130 - Lead hazard information pamphlet.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... and Urban Development LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES General Lead-Based Paint Requirements and Definitions for All Programs. § 35.130 Lead hazard information... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Lead hazard information pamphlet...

  17. 24 CFR 35.130 - Lead hazard information pamphlet.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... and Urban Development LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES General Lead-Based Paint Requirements and Definitions for All Programs. § 35.130 Lead hazard information... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Lead hazard information pamphlet...

  18. Earthquake!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hernandez, Hildo

    2000-01-01

    Examines the types of damage experienced by California State University at Northridge during the 1994 earthquake and what lessons were learned in handling this emergency are discussed. The problem of loose asbestos is addressed. (GR)

  19. Recording and cataloging hazards information, revision A

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stein, R. J.

    1974-01-01

    A data collection process is described for the purpose of discerning causation factors of accidents, and the establishment of boundaries or controls aimed at mitigating and eliminating accidents. A procedure is proposed that suggests a discipline approach to hazard identification based on energy interrelationships together with an integrated control technique which takes the form of checklists.

  20. Geophysical surveying in the Sacramento Delta for earthquake hazard assessment and measurement of peat thickness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Craig, M. S.; Kundariya, N.; Hayashi, K.; Srinivas, A.; Burnham, M.; Oikawa, P.

    2017-12-01

    Near surface geophysical surveys were conducted in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta for earthquake hazard assessment and to provide estimates of peat thickness for use in carbon models. Delta islands have experienced 3-8 meters of subsidence during the past century due to oxidation and compaction of peat. Projected sea level rise over the next century will contribute to an ongoing landward shift of the freshwater-saltwater interface, and increase the risk of flooding due to levee failure or overtopping. Seismic shear wave velocity (VS) was measured in the upper 30 meters to determine Uniform Building Code (UBC)/ National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) site class. Both seismic and ground penetrating radar (GPR) methods were employed to estimate peat thickness. Seismic surface wave surveys were conducted at eight sites on three islands and GPR surveys were conducted at two of the sites. Combined with sites surveyed in 2015, the new work brings the total number of sites surveyed in the Delta to twenty.Soil boreholes were made at several locations using a hand auger, and peat thickness ranged from 2.1 to 5.5 meters. Seismic surveys were conducted using the multichannel analysis of surface wave (MASW) method and the microtremor array method (MAM). On Bouldin Island, VS of the surficial peat layer was 32 m/s at a site with pure peat and 63 m/s at a site peat with higher clay and silt content. Velocities at these sites reached a similar value, about 125 m/s, at a depth of 10 m. GPR surveys were performed at two sites on Sherman Island using 100 MHz antennas, and indicated the base of the peat layer at a depth of about 4 meters, consistent with nearby auger holes.The results of this work include VS depth profiles and UBC/NEHRP site classifications. Seismic and GPR methods may be used in a complementary fashion to estimate peat thickness. The seismic surface wave method is a relatively robust method and more effective than GPR in many areas with high clay

  1. ThinkHazard!: an open-source, global tool for understanding hazard information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Nunez, Ariel; Deparday, Vivien; Saito, Keiko; Murnane, Richard; Balog, Simone

    2016-04-01

    Rapid and simple access to added-value natural hazard and disaster risk information is a key issue for various stakeholders of the development and disaster risk management (DRM) domains. Accessing available data often requires specialist knowledge of heterogeneous data, which are often highly technical and can be difficult for non-specialists in DRM to find and exploit. Thus, availability, accessibility and processing of these information sources are crucial issues, and an important reason why many development projects suffer significant impacts from natural hazards. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) is currently developing a new open-source tool to address this knowledge gap: ThinkHazard! The main aim of the ThinkHazard! project is to develop an analytical tool dedicated to facilitating improvements in knowledge and understanding of natural hazards among non-specialists in DRM. It also aims at providing users with relevant guidance and information on handling the threats posed by the natural hazards present in a chosen location. Furthermore, all aspects of this tool will be open and transparent, in order to give users enough information to understand its operational principles. In this presentation, we will explain the technical approach behind the tool, which translates state-of-the-art probabilistic natural hazard data into understandable hazard classifications and practical recommendations. We will also demonstrate the functionality of the tool, and discuss limitations from a scientific as well as an operational perspective.

  2. Estimating Seismic Hazards from the Catalog of Taiwan Earthquakes from 1900 to 2014 in Terms of Maximum Magnitude

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Kuei-Pao; Chang, Wen-Yen

    2017-04-01

    Maximum expected earthquake magnitude is an important parameter when designing mitigation measures for seismic hazards. This study calculated the maximum magnitude of potential earthquakes for each cell in a 0.1° × 0.1° grid of Taiwan. Two zones vulnerable to maximum magnitudes of M w ≥6.0, which will cause extensive building damage, were identified: one extends from Hsinchu southward to Taichung, Nantou, Chiayi, and Tainan in western Taiwan; the other extends from Ilan southward to Hualian and Taitung in eastern Taiwan. These zones are also characterized by low b values, which are consistent with high peak ground shaking. We also employed an innovative method to calculate (at intervals of M w 0.5) the bounds and median of recurrence time for earthquakes of magnitude M w 6.0-8.0 in Taiwan.

  3. Missing great earthquakes

    Hough, Susan E.

    2013-01-01

    The occurrence of three earthquakes with moment magnitude (Mw) greater than 8.8 and six earthquakes larger than Mw 8.5, since 2004, has raised interest in the long-term global rate of great earthquakes. Past studies have focused on the analysis of earthquakes since 1900, which roughly marks the start of the instrumental era in seismology. Before this time, the catalog is less complete and magnitude estimates are more uncertain. Yet substantial information is available for earthquakes before 1900, and the catalog of historical events is being used increasingly to improve hazard assessment. Here I consider the catalog of historical earthquakes and show that approximately half of all Mw ≥ 8.5 earthquakes are likely missing or underestimated in the 19th century. I further present a reconsideration of the felt effects of the 8 February 1843, Lesser Antilles earthquake, including a first thorough assessment of felt reports from the United States, and show it is an example of a known historical earthquake that was significantly larger than initially estimated. The results suggest that incorporation of best available catalogs of historical earthquakes will likely lead to a significant underestimation of seismic hazard and/or the maximum possible magnitude in many regions, including parts of the Caribbean.

  4. Real-time Seismicity Evaluation as a Tool for the Earthquake and Tsunami Short-Term Hazard Assessment (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papadopoulos, G. A.

    2010-12-01

    Seismic activity is a 3-D process varying in the space-time-magnitude domains. When in a target area the short-term activity deviates significantly from the usual (background) seismicity, then the modes of activity may include swarms, temporary quiescence, foreshock-mainshock-aftershock sequences, doublets and multiplets. This implies that making decision for civil protection purposes requires short-term seismic hazard assessment and evaluation. When a sizable earthquake takes place the critical question is about the nature of the event: mainshock or a foreshock which foreshadows the occurrence of a biger one? Also, the seismicity increase or decrease in a target area may signify either precursory changes or just transient seismicity variations (e.g. swarms) which do not conclude with a strong earthquake. Therefore, the real-time seismicity evaluation is the backbone of the short-term hazard assessment. The algorithm FORMA (Foreshock-Mainshock-Aftershock) is presented which detects and updates automatically and in near real-time significant variations of the seismicity according to the earthquake data flow from the monitoring center. The detection of seismicity variations is based on an expert system which for a given target area indicates the mode of seismicity from the variation of two parameters: the seismicity rate, r, and the b-value of the magnitude-frequency relation. Alert levels are produced according to the significance levels of the changes of r and b. The good performance of FORMA was verified retrospectively in several earthquake cases, e.g. for the L’ Aquila, Italy, 2009 earthquake sequence (Mmax 6.3) (Papadopoulos et al., 2010). Real-time testing was executed during January 2010 with the strong earthquake activity (Mmax 5.6) in the Corinth Rift, Central Greece. Evaluation outputs were publicly documented on a nearly daily basis with successful results. Evaluation of coastal and submarine earthquake activity is also of crucial importance for the

  5. Comparison of the historical record of earthquake hazard with seismic-hazard models for New Zealand and the continental United States

    Stirling, M.; Petersen, M.

    2006-01-01

    We compare the historical record of earthquake hazard experienced at 78 towns and cities (sites) distributed across New Zealand and the continental United States with the hazard estimated from the national probabilistic seismic-hazard (PSH) models for the two countries. The two PSH models are constructed with similar methodologies and data. Our comparisons show a tendency for the PSH models to slightly exceed the historical hazard in New Zealand and westernmost continental United States interplate regions, but show lower hazard than that of the historical record in the continental United States intraplate region. Factors such as non-Poissonian behavior, parameterization of active fault data in the PSH calculations, and uncertainties in estimation of ground-motion levels from historical felt intensity data for the interplate regions may have led to the higher-than-historical levels of hazard at the interplate sites. In contrast, the less-than-historical hazard for the remaining continental United States (intraplate) sites may be largely due to site conditions not having been considered at the intraplate sites, and uncertainties in correlating ground-motion levels to historical felt intensities. The study also highlights the importance of evaluating PSH models at more than one region, because the conclusions reached on the basis of a solely interplate or intraplate study would be very different.

  6. Incorporating Real-time Earthquake Information into Large Enrollment Natural Disaster Course Learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Furlong, K. P.; Benz, H.; Hayes, G. P.; Villasenor, A.

    2010-12-01

    Although most would agree that the occurrence of natural disaster events such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and floods can provide effective learning opportunities for natural hazards-based courses, implementing compelling materials into the large-enrollment classroom environment can be difficult. These natural hazard events derive much of their learning potential from their real-time nature, and in the modern 24/7 news-cycle where all but the most devastating events are quickly out of the public eye, the shelf life for an event is quite limited. To maximize the learning potential of these events requires that both authoritative information be available and course materials be generated as the event unfolds. Although many events such as hurricanes, flooding, and volcanic eruptions provide some precursory warnings, and thus one can prepare background materials to place the main event into context, earthquakes present a particularly confounding situation of providing no warning, but where context is critical to student learning. Attempting to implement real-time materials into large enrollment classes faces the additional hindrance of limited internet access (for students) in most lecture classrooms. In Earth 101 Natural Disasters: Hollywood vs Reality, taught as a large enrollment (150+ students) general education course at Penn State, we are collaborating with the USGS’s National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) to develop efficient means to incorporate their real-time products into learning activities in the lecture hall environment. Over time (and numerous events) we have developed a template for presenting USGS-produced real-time information in lecture mode. The event-specific materials can be quickly incorporated and updated, along with key contextual materials, to provide students with up-to-the-minute current information. In addition, we have also developed in-class activities, such as student determination of population exposure to severe ground

  7. Assessing earthquake hazards with fault trench and LiDAR maps in the Puget Lowland, Washington, USA (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nelson, A. R.; Bradley, L.; Personius, S. F.; Johnson, S. Y.

    2010-12-01

    Deciphering the earthquake histories of faults over the past few thousands of years in tectonically complex forearc regions relies on detailed site-specific as well as regional geologic maps. Here we present examples of site-specific USGS maps used to reconstruct earthquake histories for faults in the Puget Lowland. Near-surface faults and folds in the Puget Lowland accommodate 4-7 mm/yr of north-south shortening resulting from northward migration of forearc blocks along the Cascadia convergent margin. The shortening has produced east-trending uplifts, basins, and associated reverse faults that traverse urban areas. Near the eastern and northern flanks of the Olympic Mountains, complex interactions between north-south shortening and mountain uplift are reflected by normal, oblique-slip, and reverse surface faults. Holocene oblique-slip movement has also been mapped on Whidbey Island and on faults in the foothills of the Cascade Mountains in the northeastern lowland. The close proximity of lowland faults to urban areas may pose a greater earthquake hazard there than do much longer but more distant plate-boundary faults. LiDAR imagery of the densely forested lowland flown over the past 12 years revealed many previously unknown 0.5-m to 6-m-high scarps showing Holocene movement on upper-plate faults. This imagery uses two-way traveltimes of laser light pulses to detect as little as 0.2 m of relative relief on the forest floor. The returns of laser pulses with the longest travel times yield digital elevation models of the ground surface, which we vertically exaggerate and digitally shade from multiple directions at variable transparencies to enhance identification of scarps. Our maps include imagery at scales of 1:40,000 to 1:2500 with contour spacings of 100 m to 0.5 m. Maps of the vertical walls of fault-scarp trenches show complex stratigraphies and structural relations used to decipher the histories of large surface-rupturing earthquakes. These logs (field mapping

  8. Coseismic Stress Changes of the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura, New Zealand, Earthquake and Its Implication for Seismic Hazard Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shan, B.; LIU, C.; Xiong, X.

    2017-12-01

    On 13 November 2016, an earthquake with moment magnitude Mw 7.8 stroke North Canterbury, New Zealand as result of shallow oblique-reverse faulting close to boundary between the Pacific and Australian plates in the South Island, collapsing buildings and resulting in significant economic losses. The distribution of early aftershocks extended about 150 km to the north-northeast of the mainshock, suggesting the potential of earthquake triggering in this complex fault system. Strong aftershocks following major earthquakes present significant challenges for locals' reconstruction and rehabilitation. The regions around the mainshock may also suffer from earthquakes triggered by the Kaikoura earthquake. Therefore, it is significantly important to outline the regions with potential aftershocks and high seismic hazard to mitigate future disasters. Moreover, this earthquake ruptured at least 13 separate faults, and provided an opportunity to test the theory of earthquake stress triggering for a complex fault system. In this study, we calculated the coseismic Coulomb Failure Stress changes (ΔCFS) caused by the Kaikoura earthquake on the hypocenters of both historical earthquakes and aftershocks of this event with focal mechanisms. Our results show that the percentage of earthquake with positive ΔCFS within the aftershocks is higher than that of historical earthquakes. It means that the Kaikoura earthquake effectively influence the seismicity in this region. The aftershocks of Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake are mainly located in the regions with positive ΔCFS. The aftershock distributions can be well explained by the coseismic ΔCFS. Furthermore, earthquake-induced ΔCFS on the surrounding active faults was further discussed. The northeastern Alpine fault, the southwest part of North Canterbury Fault, parts of the Marlborough fault system and the southwest ends of the Kapiti-Manawatu faults are significantly stressed by the Kaikoura earthquake. The earthquake-induced stress

  9. Lessons from the conviction of the L'Aquila seven: The standard probabilistic earthquake hazard and risk assessment is ineffective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wyss, Max

    2013-04-01

    An earthquake of M6.3 killed 309 people in L'Aquila, Italy, on 6 April 2011. Subsequently, a judge in L'Aquila convicted seven who had participated in an emergency meeting on March 30, assessing the probability of a major event to follow the ongoing earthquake swarm. The sentence was six years in prison, a combine fine of 2 million Euros, loss of job, loss of retirement rent, and lawyer's costs. The judge followed the prosecution's accusation that the review by the Commission of Great Risks had conveyed a false sense of security to the population, which consequently did not take their usual precautionary measures before the deadly earthquake. He did not consider the facts that (1) one of the convicted was not a member of the commission and had merrily obeyed orders to bring the latest seismological facts to the discussion, (2) another was an engineer who was not required to have any expertise regarding the probability of earthquakes, (3) and two others were seismologists not invited to speak to the public at a TV interview and a press conference. This exaggerated judgment was the consequence of an uproar in the population, who felt misinformed and even mislead. Faced with a population worried by an earthquake swarm, the head of the Italian Civil Defense is on record ordering that the population be calmed, and the vice head executed this order in a TV interview one hour before the meeting of the Commission by stating "the scientific community continues to tell me that the situation is favorable and that there is a discharge of energy." The first lesson to be learned is that communications to the public about earthquake hazard and risk must not be left in the hands of someone who has gross misunderstandings about seismology. They must be carefully prepared by experts. The more significant lesson is that the approach to calm the population and the standard probabilistic hazard and risk assessment, as practiced by GSHAP, are misleading. The later has been criticized as

  10. Operational earthquake forecasting can enhance earthquake preparedness

    Jordan, T.H.; Marzocchi, W.; Michael, A.J.; Gerstenberger, M.C.

    2014-01-01

    We cannot yet predict large earthquakes in the short term with much reliability and skill, but the strong clustering exhibited in seismic sequences tells us that earthquake probabilities are not constant in time; they generally rise and fall over periods of days to years in correlation with nearby seismic activity. Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about these time‐dependent probabilities to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The goal of OEF is to inform the decisions that people and organizations must continually make to mitigate seismic risk and prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes on time scales from days to decades. To fulfill this role, OEF must provide a complete description of the seismic hazard—ground‐motion exceedance probabilities as well as short‐term rupture probabilities—in concert with the long‐term forecasts of probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis (PSHA).

  11. Publication: Evansville hazard maps

    ,

    2012-01-01

    The Evansville (Indiana) Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project was completed in February 2012. It was a collaborative effort among the U.S. Geological Survey and regional partners Purdue University; the Center for Earthquake Research and Information at the University of Memphis; the state geologic surveys of Kentucky, Illinois, and Indiana; the Southwest Indiana Disaster Resistant Community Corporation; and the Central U.S. Earthquake Consortium state geologists.

  12. J-SHIS - an integrated system for knowing seismic hazard information in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Azuma, H.; Fujiwara, H.; Kawai, S.; Hao, K. X.; Morikawa, N.

    2015-12-01

    An integrated system of Japan seismic hazard information station (J-SHIS) was established in 2005 for issuing and exchanging information of the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan that are based on seismic hazard assessment (SHA). A simplified app, also named J-SHIS, for smartphones is popularly used in Japan based on the integrated system of http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/map/?lang=en. "Smartphone tells hazard" is realized on a cellphone, a tablet and/or a PC. At a given spot, the comprehensive information of SHA map can be easily obtained as below: 1) A SHA probability at given intensity (JMA=5-, 5+, 6-, 6+) within 30 years. 2) A site amplification factor varies within 0.5 ~ 3.0 and expectation is 1 based on surface geology map information. 3) A depth of seismic basement down to ~3,000m based on deeper borehole and geological structure. 4) Scenario earthquake maps: By choosing an active fault, one got the average case for different parameters of the modeling. Then choose a case, you got the shaking map of intensity with color scale. "Seismic Hazard Karte tells more hazard" is another app based on website of http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/labs/karte/. (1) For every mesh of 250m x 250m, professional service SHA information is provided over national-world. (2) With five ranks for eight items, comprehensive SHA information could be delivered. (3) Site amplification factor with an average index is given. (4) Deeper geologic structure modeling is provided with borehole profiling. (5) A SHA probability is assessed within 30 and/or 50 years for the given site. (6) Seismic Hazard curves are given for earthquake sources from inland active fault, subduction zone, undetermined and their summarization. (7) The JMA seismic intensities are assessed in long-term averaged periods of 500-years to ~100,000 years. The app of J-SHIS can be downloaded freely from http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/app-jshis.

  13. Late Holocene liquefaction features in the Dominican Republic: A powerful tool for earthquake hazard assessment in the northeastern Caribbean

    Tuttle, M.P.; Prentice, C.S.; Dyer-Williams, K.; Pena, L.R.; Burr, G.

    2003-01-01

    Several generations of sand blows and sand dikes, indicative of significant and recurrent liquefaction, are preserved in the late Holocene alluvial deposits of the Cibao Valley in northern Dominican Republic. The Cibao Valley is structurally controlled by the Septentrional fault, an onshore section of the North American-Caribbean strike-slip plate boundary. The Septentrional fault was previously studied in the central part of the valley, where it sinistrally offsets Holocene terrace risers and soil horizons. In the eastern and western parts of the valley, the Septentrional fault is buried by Holocene alluvial deposits, making direct study of the structure difficult. Liquefaction features that formed in these Holocene deposits as a result of strong ground shaking provide a record of earthquakes in these areas. Liquefaction features in the eastern Cibao Valley indicate that at least one historic earthquake, probably the moment magnitude, M 8, 4 August 1946 event, and two to four prehistoric earthquakes of M 7 to 8 struck this area during the past 1100 yr. The prehistoric earthquakes appear to cluster in time and could have resulted from rupture of the central and eastern sections of the Septentrional fault circa A.D. 1200. Liquefaction features in the western Cibao Valley indicate that one historic earthquake, probably the M 8, 7 May 1842 event, and two prehistoric earthquakes of M 7-8 struck this area during the past 1600 yr. Our findings suggest that rupture of the Septentrional fault circa A.D. 1200 may have extended beyond the central Cibao Valley and generated an earthquake of M 8. Additional information regarding the age and size distribution of liquefaction features is needed to reconstruct the prehistoric earthquake history of Hispaniola and to define the long-term behavior and earthquake potential of faults associated with the North American-Caribbean plate boundary.

  14. Methodologies for the assessment of earthquake-triggered landslides hazard. A comparison of Logistic Regression and Artificial Neural Network models.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García-Rodríguez, M. J.; Malpica, J. A.; Benito, B.

    2009-04-01

    In recent years, interest in landslide hazard assessment studies has increased substantially. They are appropriate for evaluation and mitigation plan development in landslide-prone areas. There are several techniques available for landslide hazard research at a regional scale. Generally, they can be classified in two groups: qualitative and quantitative methods. Most of qualitative methods tend to be subjective, since they depend on expert opinions and represent hazard levels in descriptive terms. On the other hand, quantitative methods are objective and they are commonly used due to the correlation between the instability factors and the location of the landslides. Within this group, statistical approaches and new heuristic techniques based on artificial intelligence (artificial neural network (ANN), fuzzy logic, etc.) provide rigorous analysis to assess landslide hazard over large regions. However, they depend on qualitative and quantitative data, scale, types of movements and characteristic factors used. We analysed and compared an approach for assessing earthquake-triggered landslides hazard using logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural networks (ANN) with a back-propagation learning algorithm. One application has been developed in El Salvador, a country of Central America where the earthquake-triggered landslides are usual phenomena. In a first phase, we analysed the susceptibility and hazard associated to the seismic scenario of the 2001 January 13th earthquake. We calibrated the models using data from the landslide inventory for this scenario. These analyses require input variables representing physical parameters to contribute to the initiation of slope instability, for example, slope gradient, elevation, aspect, mean annual precipitation, lithology, land use, and terrain roughness, while the occurrence or non-occurrence of landslides is considered as dependent variable. The results of the landslide susceptibility analysis are checked using landslide

  15. 78 FR 51748 - Proposed Information Collection; Hazardous Conditions Complaints

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-08-21

    ... DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Mine Safety and Health Administration Proposed Information Collection; Hazardous Conditions Complaints AGENCY: Mine Safety and Health Administration, Labor. ACTION: Request for... requirements on respondents can be properly assessed. Currently, the Mine Safety and Health Administration...

  16. Earthquake induced liquefaction hazard, probability and risk assessment in the city of Kolkata, India: its historical perspective and deterministic scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nath, Sankar Kumar; Srivastava, Nishtha; Ghatak, Chitralekha; Adhikari, Manik Das; Ghosh, Ambarish; Sinha Ray, S. P.

    2018-01-01

    Liquefaction-induced ground failure is one amongst the leading causes of infrastructure damage due to the impact of large earthquakes in unconsolidated, non-cohesive, water saturated alluvial terrains. The city of Kolkata is located on the potentially liquefiable alluvial fan deposits of Ganga-Bramhaputra-Meghna Delta system with subsurface litho-stratigraphic sequence comprising of varying percentages of clay, cohesionless silt, sand, and gravel interbedded with decomposed wood and peat. Additionally, the region has moderately shallow groundwater condition especially in the post-monsoon seasons. In view of burgeoning population, there had been unplanned expansion of settlements in the hazardous geological, geomorphological, and hydrological conditions exposing the city to severe liquefaction hazard. The 1897 Shillong and 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquakes both of M w 8.1 reportedly induced Modified Mercalli Intensity of IV-V and VI-VII respectively in the city reportedly triggering widespread to sporadic liquefaction condition with surface manifestation of sand boils, lateral spreading, ground subsidence, etc., thus posing a strong case for liquefaction potential analysis in the terrain. With the motivation of assessing seismic hazard, vulnerability, and risk of the city of Kolkata through a consorted federal funding stipulated for all the metros and upstart urban centers in India located in BIS seismic zones III, IV, and V with population more than one million, an attempt has been made here to understand the liquefaction susceptibility condition of Kolkata under the impact of earthquake loading employing modern multivariate techniques and also to predict deterministic liquefaction scenario of the city in the event of a probabilistic seismic hazard condition with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years and a return period of 475 years. We conducted in-depth geophysical and geotechnical investigations in the city encompassing 435 km2 area. The stochastically

  17. Applications of research from the U.S. Geological Survey program, assessment of regional earthquake hazards and risk along the Wasatch Front, Utah

    Gori, Paula L.

    1993-01-01

    INTERACTIVE WORKSHOPS: ESSENTIAL ELEMENTS OF THE EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS RESEARCH AND REDUCTION PROGRAM IN THE WASATCH FRONT, UTAH: Interactive workshops provided the forum and stimulus necessary to foster collaboration among the participants in the multidisciplinary, 5-yr program of earthquake hazards reduction in the Wasatch Front, Utah. The workshop process validated well-documented social science theories on the importance of interpersonal interaction, including interaction between researchers and users of research to increase the probability that research will be relevant to the user's needs and, therefore, more readily used. REDUCING EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS IN UTAH: THE CRUCIAL CONNECTION BETWEEN RESEARCHERS AND PRACTITIONERS: Complex scientific and engineering studies must be translated for and transferred to nontechnical personnel for use in reducing earthquake hazards in Utah. The three elements needed for effective translation, likelihood of occurrence, location, and severity of potential hazards, and the three elements needed for effective transfer, delivery, assistance, and encouragement, are described and illustrated for Utah. The importance of evaluating and revising earthquake hazard reduction programs and their components is emphasized. More than 30 evaluations of various natural hazard reduction programs and techniques are introduced. This report was prepared for research managers, funding sources, and evaluators of the Utah earthquake hazard reduction program who are concerned about effectiveness. An overview of the Utah program is provided for those researchers, engineers, planners, and decisionmakers, both public and private, who are committed to reducing human casualties, property damage, and interruptions of socioeconomic systems. PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF EARTHQUAKE MITIGATION POLICIES ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT IN UTAH: The earthquake hazard potential along the Wasatch Front in Utah has been well defined by a number of scientific and

  18. Assessment of existing and potential landslide hazards resulting from the April 25, 2015 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake sequence

    Collins, Brian D.; Jibson, Randall W.

    2015-07-28

    This report provides a detailed account of assessments performed in May and June 2015 and focuses on valley-blocking landslides because they have the potential to pose considerable hazard to many villages in Nepal. First, we provide a seismological background of Nepal and then detail the methods used for both external and in-country data collection and interpretation. Our results consist of an overview of landsliding extent, a characterization of all valley-blocking landslides identified during our work, and a description of video resources that provide high resolution coverage of approximately 1,000 kilometers (km) of river valleys and surrounding terrain affected by the Gorkha earthquake sequence. This is followed by a description of site-specific landslide-hazard assessments conducted while in Nepal and includes detailed descriptions of five noteworthy case studies. Finally, we assess the expectation for additional landslide hazards during the 2015 summer monsoon season.

  19. Reconnaissance engineering geology of the Metlakatla area, Annette Island, Alaska, with emphasis on evaluation of earthquakes and other geologic hazards

    Yehle, Lynn A.

    1977-01-01

    A program to study the engineering geology of most larger Alaska coastal communities and to evaluate their earthquake and other geologic hazards was started following the 1964 Alaska earthquake; this report about the Metlakatla area, Annette Island, is a product of that program. Field-study methods were of a reconnaissance nature, and thus the interpretations in the report are tentative. Landscape of the Metlakatla Peninsula, on which the city of Metlakatla is located, is characterized by a muskeg-covered terrane of very low relief. In contrast, most of the rest of Annette Island is composed of mountainous terrane with steep valleys and numerous lakes. During the Pleistocene Epoch the Metlakatla area was presumably covered by ice several times; glaciers smoothed the present Metlakatla Peninsula and deeply eroded valleys on the rest. of Annette Island. The last major deglaciation was completed probably before 10,000 years ago. Rebound of the earth's crust, believed to be related to glacial melting, has caused land emergence at Metlakatla of at least 50 ft (15 m) and probably more than 200 ft (61 m) relative to present sea level. Bedrock in the Metlakatla area is composed chiefly of hard metamorphic rocks: greenschist and greenstone with minor hornfels and schist. Strike and dip of beds are generally variable and minor offsets are common. Bedrock is of late Paleozoic to early Mesozoic age. Six types of surficial geologic materials of Quaternary age were recognized: firm diamicton, emerged shore, modern shore and delta, and alluvial deposits, very soft muskeg and other organic deposits, and firm to soft artificial fill. A combination map unit is composed of bedrock or diamicton. Geologic structure in southeastern Alaska is complex because, since at least early Paleozoic time, there have been several cycles of tectonic deformation that affected different parts of the region. Southeastern Alaska is transected by numerous faults and possible faults that attest to major

  20. National Earthquake Information Center Seismic Event Detections on Multiple Scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patton, J.; Yeck, W. L.; Benz, H.; Earle, P. S.; Soto-Cordero, L.; Johnson, C. E.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) monitors seismicity on local, regional, and global scales using automatic picks from more than 2,000 near-real time seismic stations. This presents unique challenges in automated event detection due to the high variability in data quality, network geometries and density, and distance-dependent variability in observed seismic signals. To lower the overall detection threshold while minimizing false detection rates, NEIC has begun to test the incorporation of new detection and picking algorithms, including multiband (Lomax et al., 2012) and kurtosis (Baillard et al., 2014) pickers, and a new bayesian associator (Glass 3.0). The Glass 3.0 associator allows for simultaneous processing of variably scaled detection grids, each with a unique set of nucleation criteria (e.g., nucleation threshold, minimum associated picks, nucleation phases) to meet specific monitoring goals. We test the efficacy of these new tools on event detection in networks of various scales and geometries, compare our results with previous catalogs, and discuss lessons learned. For example, we find that on local and regional scales, rapid nucleation of small events may require event nucleation with both P and higher-amplitude secondary phases (e.g., S or Lg). We provide examples of the implementation of a scale-independent associator for an induced seismicity sequence (local-scale), a large aftershock sequence (regional-scale), and for monitoring global seismicity. Baillard, C., Crawford, W. C., Ballu, V., Hibert, C., & Mangeney, A. (2014). An automatic kurtosis-based P-and S-phase picker designed for local seismic networks. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 104(1), 394-409. Lomax, A., Satriano, C., & Vassallo, M. (2012). Automatic picker developments and optimization: FilterPicker - a robust, broadband picker for real-time seismic monitoring and earthquake early-warning, Seism. Res. Lett. , 83, 531-540, doi: 10

  1. Cockpit display of hazardous wind shear information

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wanke, Craig; Hansman, R. John, Jr.

    1990-01-01

    Information on cockpit display of wind shear information is given in viewgraph form. Based on the current status of windshear sensors and candidate data dissemination systems, the near-term capabilities for windshear avoidance will most likely include: (1) Ground-based detection: TDWR (Terminal Doppler Weather Radar), LLWAS (Low-Level Windshear Alert System), Automated PIREPS; (2) Ground-Air datalinks: Air traffic control voice channels, Mode-S digital datalink, ACARS alphanumeric datalink. The possible datapaths for integration of these systems are illustrated in a diagram. In the future, airborne windshear detection systems such as lidars, passive IR detectors, or airborne Doppler radars may also become available. Possible future datalinks include satellite downlink and specialized en route weather channels.

  2. The hazard map of ML6.6 0206 Meinong earthquake near Guanmiao and its Neotectonic implication

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chung, L. H.; Shyu, J. B. H.; Huang, M. H.; Yang, K. M.; Le Beon, M.; Lee, Y. H.; Chuang, R.; Yi, D.

    2016-12-01

    The serious damage was occurred in SW Taiwan by ML 6.6 0206 Meinong earthquake. Based on InSAR result, 10 cm oval-raised surface deformation is 15 km away from its epicenter, and two obviously N-S trend sharp phase change nearby Guanmiao area. Our field investigation shows bulling damage and surface fracture are high related with the two sharp phase change. Here, we perform the detailed shallow underground geometry by using reflection seismic data, geologic data, and field hazard investigation. This N-S trend surface deformation may be induced by local shallow folding, while the huge uplift west of Guanmiao may be related with pure shear deformation of thick clayey Gutingkeng (GTK) Formation. Our results imply that not only a moderate lower crustal earthquake can trigger active structure at shallower depth, but also those minor shallow active structures are occurred serious damage and surface deformation.

  3. Chapter C. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Fire, Police, Transportation and Hazardous Materials

    Van Anne, Craig; Scawthorn, Charles R.

    1994-01-01

    The papers in this chapter discuss some of the failures and successes that resulted from the societal response by a multitude of agencies to the Loma Prieta earthquake. Some of the lessons learned were old ones relearned. Other lessons were obvious ones which had gone unnoticed. Still, knowledge gained from past earthquakes spawned planning and mitigation efforts which proved to be successful in limiting the aftermath effects of the Loma Prieta event. At least four major areas of response are presented in this chapter: the Oakland Police Department response to the challenge of controlled access to the Cypress freeway collapse area without inhibiting relief and recovery efforts; search and rescue of the freeway collapse and the monumental crisis management problem that accompanied it; the short- and long-term impact on transbay transportation systems to move a large work force from home to business; and the handling of hazardous material releases throughout the Bay Area.

  4. Preparing for an Earthquake: Information for Schools and Families

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heath, Melissa Allen; Dean, Brenda

    2008-01-01

    Over the past decade, catastrophic earthquakes have garnered international attention regarding the need for improving immediate and ongoing support services for disrupted communities. Following the December 26, 2004 Indonesian earthquake, the Indian Ocean tsunami was responsible for displacing millions and taking the lives of an estimated 320,000…

  5. Earthquake Forecasting System in Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Falcone, G.; Marzocchi, W.; Murru, M.; Taroni, M.; Faenza, L.

    2017-12-01

    In Italy, after the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, a procedure was developed for gathering and disseminating authoritative information about the time dependence of seismic hazard to help communities prepare for a potentially destructive earthquake. The most striking time dependency of the earthquake occurrence process is the time clustering, which is particularly pronounced in time windows of days and weeks. The Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) system that is developed at the Seismic Hazard Center (Centro di Pericolosità Sismica, CPS) of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) is the authoritative source of seismic hazard information for Italian Civil Protection. The philosophy of the system rests on a few basic concepts: transparency, reproducibility, and testability. In particular, the transparent, reproducible, and testable earthquake forecasting system developed at CPS is based on ensemble modeling and on a rigorous testing phase. Such phase is carried out according to the guidance proposed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP, international infrastructure aimed at evaluating quantitatively earthquake prediction and forecast models through purely prospective and reproducible experiments). In the OEF system, the two most popular short-term models were used: the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) and the Short-Term Earthquake Probabilities (STEP). Here, we report the results from OEF's 24hour earthquake forecasting during the main phases of the 2016-2017 sequence occurred in Central Apennines (Italy).

  6. Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment based on the long-term evaluation of subduction-zone earthquakes along the Sagami Trough, Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirata, K.; Fujiwara, H.; Nakamura, H.; Osada, M.; Ohsumi, T.; Morikawa, N.; Kawai, S.; Maeda, T.; Matsuyama, H.; Toyama, N.; Kito, T.; Murata, Y.; Saito, R.; Takayama, J.; Akiyama, S.; Korenaga, M.; Abe, Y.; Hashimoto, N.; Hakamata, T.

    2017-12-01

    For the forthcoming large earthquakes along the Sagami Trough where the Philippine Sea Plate is subducting beneath the northeast Japan arc, the Earthquake Research Committee(ERC) /Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, Japanese government (2014a) assessed that M7 and M8 class earthquakes will occur there and defined the possible extent of the earthquake source areas. They assessed 70% and 0% 5% of the occurrence probability within the next 30 years (from Jan. 1, 2014), respectively, for the M7 and M8 class earthquakes. First, we set possible 10 earthquake source areas(ESAs) and 920 ESAs, respectively, for M8 and M7 class earthquakes. Next, we constructed 125 characterized earthquake fault models (CEFMs) and 938 CEFMs, respectively, for M8 and M7 class earthquakes, based on "tsunami receipt" of ERC (2017) (Kitoh et al., 2016, JpGU). All the CEFMs are allowed to have a large slip area for expression of fault slip heterogeneity. For all the CEFMs, we calculate tsunamis by solving a nonlinear long wave equation, using FDM, including runup calculation, over a nesting grid system with a minimum grid size of 50 meters. Finally, we re-distributed the occurrence probability to all CEFMs (Abe et al., 2014, JpGU) and gathered excess probabilities for variable tsunami heights, calculated from all the CEFMs, at every observation point along Pacific coast to get PTHA. We incorporated aleatory uncertainties inherent in tsunami calculation and earthquake fault slip heterogeneity. We considered two kinds of probabilistic hazard models; one is "Present-time hazard model" under an assumption that the earthquake occurrence basically follows a renewal process based on BPT distribution if the latest faulting time was known. The other is "Long-time averaged hazard model" under an assumption that earthquake occurrence follows a stationary Poisson process. We fixed our viewpoint, for example, on the probability that the tsunami height will exceed 3 meters at coastal points in next

  7. What can we learn from the Wells, NV earthquake sequence about seismic hazard in the intermountain west?

    Petersen, M.D.; Pankow, K.L.; Biasi, G.P.; Meremonte, M.

    2008-01-01

    The February 21, 2008 Wells, NV earthquake (M 6) was felt throughout eastern Nevada, southern Idaho, and western Utah. The town of Wells sustained significant damage to unreinforced masonry buildings. The earthquake occurred in a region of low seismic hazard with little seismicity, low geodetic strain rates, and few mapped faults. The peak horizontal ground acceleration predicted by the USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps is about 0.2 g at 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, with the contributions coming mostly from the Ruby Mountain fault and background seismicity (M5-7.0). The hazard model predicts that the probability of occurrence of an M>6 event within 50 km of Wells is about 15% in 100 years. Although the earthquake was inside the USArray Transportable Array network, the nearest on-scale recordings of ground motions from the mainshock were too distant to estimate accelerations in town. The University of Nevada Reno, the University of Utah, and the U.S. Geological Survey deployed portable instruments to capture the ground motions from aftershocks of this rare normal-faulting event. Shaking from a M 4.7 aftershock recorded on portable instruments at distances less than 10 km exceeded 0.3 g, and sustained accelerations above 0.1 g lasted for about 5 seconds. For a magnitude 5 earthquake at 10 km distance the NGA equations predict median peak ground accelerations about 0.1 g. Ground motions from normal faulting earthquakes are poorly represented in the ground motion prediction equations. We compare portable and Transportable Array ground-motion recordings with prediction equations. Advanced National Seismic System stations in Utah recorded ground motions 250 km from the mainshock of about 2% g. The maximum ground motion recorded in Salt Lake City was in the center of the basin. We analyze the spatial variability of ground motions (rock vs. soil) and the influence of the Salt Lake Basin in modifying the ground motions. We then compare this data with the

  8. The Effects of the Passage of Time from the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake on the Public’s Anxiety about a Variety of Hazards

    PubMed Central

    Nakayachi, Kazuya; Nagaya, Kazuhisa

    2016-01-01

    This research investigated whether the Japanese people’s anxiety about a variety of hazards, including earthquakes and nuclear accidents, has changed over time since the Tohoku Earthquake in 2011. Data from three nationwide surveys conducted in 2008, 2012, and 2015 were compared to see the change in societal levels of anxiety toward 51 types of hazards. The same two-phase stratified random sampling method was used to create the list of participants in each survey. The results showed that anxiety about earthquakes and nuclear accidents had increased for a time after the Tohoku Earthquake, and then decreased after a four-year time frame with no severe earthquakes and nuclear accidents. It was also revealed that the anxiety level for some hazards other than earthquakes and nuclear accidents had decreased at ten months after the Earthquake, and then remained unchanged after the four years. Therefore, ironically, a major disaster might decrease the public anxiety in general at least for several years. PMID:27589780

  9. The Sundaland Block in SE Asia: A Tectonic Entity Surrounded by Earthquake Hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simons, W. J.; Vigny, C.; Socquet, A.; Ambrosius, B. A.; Naeije, M. C.

    2007-12-01

    The present-day crustal deformation of SE Asia results from the convergent motion between the Sundaland (SU) block, which covers most of SE Asia, and the adjacent Philippine (PH), Australian (AU) and Indian (IN) tectonic plates in highly active subduction zones. To the north, SU is disconnected from the 'stable' Eurasian (EU) plate by the IN-EU collision which shaped the crustal deformation zones in and around the Himalayan Region. The oblique relative motion between IN/AU and SU caused the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake/tsunami disaster. A unique (100+ points) GPS velocity field (in ITRF2000 and ITRF2005) that spans the entire SE Asia region, based on a decade of regional measurements (1994-2004), was exploited to resolve Sundaland's motion and boundaries and perform a detailed study of the inter-seismic intraplate deformation [1]. This revealed previously undetected deformation patterns on Java, North Borneo and North Thailand and the much larger subduction deformation zone extending (>600 ~km) from the Sumatra trench towards Peninsular Malaysia and South Thailand. There far-field data implies a ~220~km wide locked trench fault plane below SU at shallow (≤gslant 13°) dip angle and full coupling on the subduction. This matches the very large magnitude of the 26/12/2004 earthquake and the subsequently recorded wide-spread co-seismic deformations throughout the network also provided the first unambiguous evidence of the rupture plane length [2]. The post-seismic motions (both at spatial and temporal scales) of ~50 GPS sites (2005-2006) provide information on the contribution of various mechanisms (aftershocks/afterslip, visco-elastic relaxation and poro- elasticity). These post-seismic motions are very significant in the far-field, e.g. the island of Phuket additionally moved ~1.5 times the initial 2004 and 2005 co-seismic displacements. References: [1] Simons, W.J.F, et al al.(2007), J .Geophys. Res., 112, B06420, doi:10.1029/2005JB003868. [2] Vigny, C. et al

  10. Marine geology and earthquake hazards of the San Pedro Shelf region, southern California

    Fisher, Michael A.; Normark, William R.; Langenheim, V.E.; Calvert, Andrew J.; Sliter, Ray

    2004-01-01

    High-resolution seismic-reflection data have been com- bined with a variety of other geophysical and geological data to interpret the offshore structure and earthquake hazards of the San Pedro Shelf, near Los Angeles, California. Prominent structures investigated include the Wilmington Graben, the Palos Verdes Fault Zone, various faults below the western part of the shelf and slope, and the deep-water San Pedro Basin. The structure of the Palos Verdes Fault Zone changes mark- edly southeastward across the San Pedro Shelf and slope. Under the northern part of the shelf, this fault zone includes several strands, but the main strand dips west and is probably an oblique-slip fault. Under the slope, this fault zone con- sists of several fault strands having normal separation, most of which dip moderately east. To the southeast near Lasuen Knoll, the Palos Verdes Fault Zone locally is a low-angle fault that dips east, but elsewhere near this knoll the fault appears to dip steeply. Fresh sea-floor scarps near Lasuen Knoll indi- cate recent fault movement. The observed regional structural variation along the Palos Verdes Fault Zone is explained as the result of changes in strike and fault geometry along a master strike-slip fault at depth. The shallow summit and possible wavecut terraces on Lasuen knoll indicate subaerial exposure during the last sea-level lowstand. Modeling of aeromagnetic data indicates the presence of a large magnetic body under the western part of the San Pedro Shelf and upper slope. This is interpreted to be a thick body of basalt of Miocene(?) age. Reflective sedimentary rocks overlying the basalt are tightly folded, whereas folds in sedimentary rocks east of the basalt have longer wavelengths. This difference might mean that the basalt was more competent during folding than the encasing sedimentary rocks. West of the Palos Verdes Fault Zone, other northwest-striking faults deform the outer shelf and slope. Evidence for recent movement along these

  11. Probability estimates of seismic event occurrence compared to health hazards - Forecasting Taipei's Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fung, D. C. N.; Wang, J. P.; Chang, S. H.; Chang, S. C.

    2014-12-01

    Using a revised statistical model built on past seismic probability models, the probability of different magnitude earthquakes occurring within variable timespans can be estimated. The revised model is based on Poisson distribution and includes the use of best-estimate values of the probability distribution of different magnitude earthquakes recurring from a fault from literature sources. Our study aims to apply this model to the Taipei metropolitan area with a population of 7 million, which lies in the Taipei Basin and is bounded by two normal faults: the Sanchaio and Taipei faults. The Sanchaio fault is suggested to be responsible for previous large magnitude earthquakes, such as the 1694 magnitude 7 earthquake in northwestern Taipei (Cheng et. al., 2010). Based on a magnitude 7 earthquake return period of 543 years, the model predicts the occurrence of a magnitude 7 earthquake within 20 years at 1.81%, within 79 years at 6.77% and within 300 years at 21.22%. These estimates increase significantly when considering a magnitude 6 earthquake; the chance of one occurring within the next 20 years is estimated to be 3.61%, 79 years at 13.54% and 300 years at 42.45%. The 79 year period represents the average lifespan of the Taiwan population. In contrast, based on data from 2013, the probability of Taiwan residents experiencing heart disease or malignant neoplasm is 11.5% and 29%. The inference of this study is that the calculated risk that the Taipei population is at from a potentially damaging magnitude 6 or greater earthquake occurring within their lifetime is just as great as of suffering from a heart attack or other health ailments.

  12. Hazard recognition in mining: A psychological perspective. Information circular/1995

    SciT

    Perdue, C.W.; Kowalski, K.M.; Barrett, E.A.

    1995-07-01

    This U.S. Bureau of Mines report considers, from a psychological perspective, the perceptual process by which miners recognize and respond to mining hazards. It proposes that if the hazard recognition skills of miners can be improved, mining accidents may be reduced to a significant degree. Prior studies of hazard perception in mining are considered, as are relevant studies from investigations of military target identification, pilot and gunnery officer training, transportation safety, automobile operator behavior, as well as research into sensory functioning and visual information processing. A general model of hazard perception is introduced, and selected concepts from the psychology ofmore » perception that are applicable to the detection of mining hazards are reviewed. Hazard recognition is discussed as a function of the perceptual cues available to the miner as well as the cognitive resources and strategies employed by the miner. The development of expertise in resonding to hazards is related to individual differences in the experience, aptitude, and personality of the worker. Potential applications to miner safety and training are presented.« less

  13. Natural Hazard Public Policy Implications of the May 12, 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake, Sichuan, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cydzik, K.; Hamilton, D.; Stenner, H. D.; Cattarossi, A.; Shrestha, P. L.

    2009-12-01

    by the earthquake have allowed survivors to begin rebuilding their lives. However, the long-term impact of the earthquake continues to make headlines. Post-earthquake landslides and debris flows initiated by storm events have continued to impart devastation on the region. Events such as the Wenchuan Earthquake provide unique opportunities for engineers, scientists, and policy makers to collaborate for purposes of exploring the details of natural hazards and developing sound policies to protect lives and property in the future.

  14. Estimating Earthquake Hazards in the San Pedro Shelf Region, Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baher, S.; Fuis, G.; Normark, W. R.; Sliter, R.

    2003-12-01

    The San Pedro Shelf (SPS) region of the inner California Borderland offshore southern California poses a significant seismic hazard to the contiguous Los Angeles Area, as a consequence of late Cenozoic compressional reactivation of mid-Cenozoic extensional faults. The extent of the hazard, however, is poorly understood because of the complexity of fault geometries and uncertainties in earthquake locations. The major faults in the region include the Palos Verdes, THUMS Huntington Beach and the Newport-Inglewood fault zones. We report here the analysis and interpretation of wide-angle seismic-reflection and refraction data recorded as part of the Los Angeles Region Seismic Experiment line 1 (LARSE 1), multichannel seismic (MCS) reflection data obtained by the USGS (1998-2000) and industry borehole stratigraphy. The onshore-offshore velocity model, which is based on forward modeling of the refracted P-wave arrival times, is used to depth migrate the LARSE 1 section. Borehole stratigraphy allows correlation of the onshore and offshore velocity models because state regulations prevent collection of deep-penetration acoustic data nearshore (within 3 mi.). Our refraction study is an extension of ten Brink et al., 2000 tomographic inversion of LARSE I data. They found high velocities (> 6 km/sec) at about ~3.5 km depth from the Catalina Fault (CF) to the SPS. We find these velocities, shallower (around 2 km depth) beneath the Catalina Ridge (CR) and SPS, but at a depth 2.5-3.0 km elsewhere in the study region. This change in velocity structure can provide additional constraints for the tectonic processes of this region. The structural horizons observed in the LARSE 1 reflection data are tied to adjacent MCS lines. We find localized folding and faulting at depth (~2 km) southwest of the CR and on the SPS slope. Quasi-laminar beds, possible of pelagic origin follow the contours of earlier folded (wavelength ~1 km) and faulted Cenozoic sedimentary and volcanic rocks. Depth to

  15. Promise and problems in using stress triggering models for time-dependent earthquake hazard assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cocco, M.

    2001-12-01

    Earthquake stress changes can promote failures on favorably oriented faults and modify the seismicity pattern over broad regions around the causative faults. Because the induced stress perturbations modify the rate of production of earthquakes, they alter the probability of seismic events in a specified time window. Comparing the Coulomb stress changes with the seismicity rate changes and aftershock patterns can statistically test the role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence. The interaction probability may represent a further tool to test the stress trigger or shadow model. The probability model, which incorporate stress transfer, has the main advantage to include the contributions of the induced stress perturbation (a static step in its present formulation), the loading rate and the fault constitutive properties. Because the mechanical conditions of the secondary faults at the time of application of the induced load are largely unkown, stress triggering can only be tested on fault populations and not on single earthquake pairs with a specified time delay. The interaction probability can represent the most suitable tool to test the interaction between large magnitude earthquakes. Despite these important implications and the stimulating perspectives, there exist problems in understanding earthquake interaction that should motivate future research but at the same time limit its immediate social applications. One major limitation is that we are unable to predict how and if the induced stress perturbations modify the ratio between small versus large magnitude earthquakes. In other words, we cannot distinguish between a change in this ratio in favor of small events or of large magnitude earthquakes, because the interaction probability is independent of magnitude. Another problem concerns the reconstruction of the stressing history. The interaction probability model is based on the response to a static step; however, we know that other processes contribute to

  16. San Andreas fault geometry at Desert Hot Springs, California, and its effects on earthquake hazards and groundwater

    Catchings, R.D.; Rymer, M.J.; Goldman, M.R.; Gandhok, G.

    2009-01-01

    The Mission Creek and Banning faults are two of the principal strands of the San Andreas fault zone in the northern Coachella Valley of southern California. Structural characteristics of the faults affect both regional earthquake hazards and local groundwater resources. We use seismic, gravity, and geological data to characterize the San Andreas fault zone in the vicinity of Desert Hot Springs. Seismic images of the upper 500 m of the Mission Creek fault at Desert Hot Springs show multiple fault strands distributed over a 500 m wide zone, with concentrated faulting within a central 200 m wide area of the fault zone. High-velocity (up to 5000 m=sec) rocks on the northeast side of the fault are juxtaposed against a low-velocity (6.0) earthquakes in the area (in 1948 and 1986) occurred at or near the depths (~10 to 12 km) of the merged (San Andreas) fault. Large-magnitude earthquakes that nucleate at or below the merged fault will likely generate strong shaking from guided waves along both fault zones and from amplified seismic waves in the low-velocity basin between the two fault zones. The Mission Creek fault zone is a groundwater barrier with the top of the water table varying by 60 m in depth and the aquifer varying by about 50 m in thickness across a 200 m wide zone of concentrated faulting.

  17. Geological Deformations and Potential Hazards Triggered by the 01-12-2010 Haiti Earthquake: Insights from Google Earth Imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doblas, M.; Benito, B.; Torres, Y.; Belizaire, D.; Dorfeuille, J.; Aretxabala, A.

    2013-05-01

    In this study we compare the different Google Earth imagery (GEI) available before and after the 01-12-2010 earthquake of Haiti and carry out a detailed analysis of the superficial seismic-related geological deformations in the following sites: 1) the capital Port-Au-Prince and other cities (Carrefour and Gresslier); 2) the mountainous area of the Massif de la Selle which is transected by the "Enriquillo-Plaintain-Garden" (EPG) interplate boundary-fault (that supposedly triggered the seism); 3) some of the most important river channels and their corresponding deltas (Momanche, Grise and Frorse). The initial results of our researches were published in March 2010 in a special web page created by the scientific community to try to mitigate the devastating effects of this catastrophe (http://supersites.earthobservations.org/haiti.php). Six types of superficial geological deformations triggered by the seismic event have been identified with the GEI: liquefaction structures, chaotic rupture zones, coastal and domal uplifts, river-delta turnovers, faults/ruptures and landslides. Potential geological hazards triggered by the Haiti earthquake include landslides, inundations, reactivation of active tectonic elements (e.g., fractures), river-delta turnovers, etc. We analyzed again the GEI after the rain period and, as expected, most of the geological deformations that we initially identified had been erased and/or modified by the water washout or buried by the sediments. In this sense the GEI constitutes an invaluable instrument in the analysis of seismic geological hazards: we still have the possibility to compare all the images before and after the seism that are recorded in its useful "time tool". These are in fact the only witnesses of most of the geological deformations triggered by the Haiti earthquake that remain stored in the virtual archives of the GEI. In fact a field trip to the area today would be useless as most of these structures have disappeared. We will show

  18. Evaluation of Tsunami Hazards in Kuwait from Possible Earthquake and Landslide Sources considering Effect of Natural Tide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Latcharote, P.

    2016-12-01

    Kuwait is one of the most important oil producers to the world and most of population and many vital facilities are located along the coasts. However, even with low or unknown tsunami risk, it is important to investigate tsunami hazards in this country to ensure safety of life and sustain the global economy. This study aimed to evaluate tsunami hazards along the coastal areas of Kuwait from both earthquake and landslide sources using numerical modeling. Tsunami generation and propagation was simulated using the two-layer model and the TUNAMI model. Four cases of earthquake scenarios are expected to generate tsunami along the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) based on historical events and worst cases possible to simulate tsunami propagation to the coastal areas of the Arabian Gulf. Case 1 (Mw 8.3) and Case 2 (Mw 8.3) are the replication of the 1945 Makran earthquake, whereas Case 3 (Mw 8.6) and Case 4 (Mw 9.0) are the worst-case scenarios. Tsunami numerical simulation was modelled with mesh size 30 arc-second using bathymetry and topography data from GEBCO. Preliminary results suggested that tsunamis generated by Case 1 and Case 2 will impose very small effects to Kuwait (< 0.1 m) while Case 3 and Case 4 can generate maximum tsunami amplitude up to 0.3 m to 1.0 m after 12 hours from the earthquake. In addition, this study considered tsunamis generated by landslide along the opposite Iranian coast of Kuwait bay. To preliminarily assess tsunami hazards, coastal landslides were assumed occurred at the volume of 1.0-2.0 km3 at three possible locations from their topographic features. The preliminary results revealed that tsunami generated by coastal landslides could impose a significant tsunami impact to Kuwait having maximum tsunami amplitude at the Falika Island in front of Kuwait bay and Azzour power and desalination plant about 0.5 m- 1.1 m depending on landslide volume and energy dissipation. Future works will include more accuracy of tsunami numerical simulation with

  19. Tsunami hazards to U.S. coasts from giant earthquakes in Alaska

    Ryan, Holly F.; von Huene, Roland E.; Scholl, Dave; Kirby, Stephen

    2012-01-01

    In the aftermath of Japan's devastating 11 March 2011Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, scientists are considering whether and how a similar tsunami could be generated along the Alaskan-Aleutian subduction zone (AASZ). A tsunami triggered by an earthquake along the AASZ would cross the Pacific Ocean and cause extensive damage along highly populated U.S. coasts, with ports being particularly vulnerable. For example, a tsunami in 1946 generated by a Mw 8.6 earthquake near Unimak Pass, Alaska (Figure 1a), caused significant damage along the U.S. West Coast, took 150 lives in Hawaii, and inundated shorelines of South Pacific islands and Antarctica [Fryer et al., 2004; Lopez and Okal, 2006]. The 1946 tsunami occurred before modern broadband seismometers were in place, and the mechanisms that created it remain poorly understood.

  20. Analysis on Two Typical Landslide Hazard Phenomena in The Wenchuan Earthquake by Field Investigations and Shaking Table Tests.

    PubMed

    Yang, Changwei; Zhang, Jianjing; Liu, Feicheng; Bi, Junwei; Jun, Zhang

    2015-08-06

    Based on our field investigations of landslide hazards in the Wenchuan earthquake, some findings can be reported: (1) the multi-aspect terrain facing empty isolated mountains and thin ridges reacted intensely to the earthquake and was seriously damaged; (2) the slope angles of most landslides was larger than 45°. Considering the above disaster phenomena, the reasons are analyzed based on shaking table tests of one-sided, two-sided and four-sided slopes. The analysis results show that: (1) the amplifications of the peak accelerations of four-sided slopes is stronger than that of the two-sided slopes, while that of the one-sided slope is the weakest, which can indirectly explain the phenomena that the damage is most serious; (2) the amplifications of the peak accelerations gradually increase as the slope angles increase, and there are two inflection points which are the point where the slope angle is 45° and where the slope angle is 50°, respectively, which can explain the seismic phenomenon whereby landslide hazards mainly occur on the slopes whose slope angle is bigger than 45°. The amplification along the slope strike direction is basically consistent, and the step is smooth.

  1. Recent developments in understanding the tectonic evolution of the Southern California offshore area: Implications for earthquake-hazard analysis

    Fisher, M.A.; Langenheim, V.E.; Nicholson, C.; Ryan, H.F.; Sliter, R.W.

    2009-01-01

    During late Mesozoic and Cenozoic time, three main tectonic episodes affected the Southern California offshore area. Each episode imposed its unique structural imprint such that early-formed structures controlled or at least influenced the location and development of later ones. This cascaded structural inheritance greatly complicates analysis of the extent, orientation, and activity of modern faults. These fault attributes play key roles in estimates of earthquake magnitude and recurrence interval. Hence, understanding the earthquake hazard posed by offshore and coastal faults requires an understanding of the history of structural inheritance and modifi-cation. In this report we review recent (mainly since 1987) findings about the tectonic development of the Southern California offshore area and use analog models of fault deformation as guides to comprehend the bewildering variety of offshore structures that developed over time. This report also provides a background in regional tectonics for other chapters in this section that deal with the threat from offshore geologic hazards in Southern California. ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

  2. Analysis on Two Typical Landslide Hazard Phenomena in The Wenchuan Earthquake by Field Investigations and Shaking Table Tests

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Changwei; Zhang, Jianjing; Liu, Feicheng; Bi, Junwei; Jun, Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Based on our field investigations of landslide hazards in the Wenchuan earthquake, some findings can be reported: (1) the multi-aspect terrain facing empty isolated mountains and thin ridges reacted intensely to the earthquake and was seriously damaged; (2) the slope angles of most landslides was larger than 45°. Considering the above disaster phenomena, the reasons are analyzed based on shaking table tests of one-sided, two-sided and four-sided slopes. The analysis results show that: (1) the amplifications of the peak accelerations of four-sided slopes is stronger than that of the two-sided slopes, while that of the one-sided slope is the weakest, which can indirectly explain the phenomena that the damage is most serious; (2) the amplifications of the peak accelerations gradually increase as the slope angles increase, and there are two inflection points which are the point where the slope angle is 45° and where the slope angle is 50°, respectively, which can explain the seismic phenomenon whereby landslide hazards mainly occur on the slopes whose slope angle is bigger than 45°. The amplification along the slope strike direction is basically consistent, and the step is smooth. PMID:26258785

  3. A contribution to the seismic hazard of the Apulia Region (Southern Italy): environmental effects triggered by historical earthquakes in last centuries.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porfido, Sabina; Alessio, Giuliana; Nappi, Rosa; De Lucia, Maddalena; Gaudiosi, Germana

    2016-04-01

    The aim of this study is a critical revision of the historical and recent seismicity of the Apulia and surrounding seismogenetic areas, for re-evaluating the macroseismic effects in MCS scale and ground effects in natural environment according to the ESI 2007 scale (Michetti et al., 2007) as a contribution to the seismic hazard of the region. The most important environmental effect due to historical earthquakes in the Apulia was the tsunami occurrence, followed by landslides, liquefaction phenomena, hydrological changes and ground cracks. The Apulia (Southern Italy) has been hit by several low energy and a few high energy earthquakes in the last centuries. In particular, the July 30, 1627 earthquake (I=X MCS, Rovida et al., 2011) and the May 5, 1646 event (I=X MCS), the strongest earthquakes of the Gargano promontory have been reviewed, together with the March 20, 1731 earthquake (I=IX MCS, Mw=6.5, Rovida et al., 2011), the most relevant of the Foggia province, and the February 20, 1743 earthquake (I=IX MCS, Mw= 7.1, Rovida et al., 2011, I ESI=X, Nappi et al, 2015), the strongest of the Salento area,. The whole Apulia region has also been struck by strong earthquakes of neighboring seismogenetic areas located in the Southern Apennines, Adriatic and Ionian Sea, Albania and Greece, well propagated throughout the Italian peninsula, and in particular in the southern regions, where the intensity degrees are higher, sometimes exceeding the limit of damage. Some well documented examples of Greek earthquakes strongly felt in the whole Apulia region were: the August 27, 1886 earthquake (Peloponnesus, Greece); the May 28, 1897 earthquake (Creta-Cypro); the June 26, 1926 earthquake (Creta and Cipro, Imax=X MCS), felt all over the Southern Italy; the August 28, 1962 earthquake (epicenter in Peloponnesus area). It is noteworthy that earthquakes located in the Southern Apennines were powerfully felt in the whole Apulia region; among the strongest historical events of the

  4. Near-shore Evaluation of Holocene Faulting and Earthquake Hazard in the New York City Metropolitan Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cormier, M. H.; King, J. W.; Seeber, L.; Heil, C. W., Jr.; Caccioppoli, B.

    2016-12-01

    During its relatively short historic period, the Atlantic Seaboard of North America has experienced a few M6+ earthquakes. These events raise the specter of a similar earthquake occurring anywhere along the eastern seaboard, including in the greater New York City (NYC) metropolitan area. Indeed, the NYC Seismic Zone is one of several concentrations of earthquake activity that stand out in the field of epicenters over eastern North America. Various lines of evidence point to a maximum magnitude in the M7 range for metropolitan NYC - a dramatic scenario that is counterbalanced by the low probability of such an event. Several faults mapped near NYC strike NW, sub-normal to the NE-striking structural trends of the Appalachians, and all earthquake sequences with well-established fault sources in the NYC seismic zone originate from NW-striking faults. With funding from the USGS Earthquake Hazard Program, we recently (July 2016) collected 85 km of high-resolution sub-bottom (CHIRP) profiles along the north shore of western Long Island Sound, immediately adjacent to metropolitan NYC. This survey area is characterized by a smooth, 15.5 kyr-old erosional surface and overlying strata with small original relief. CHIRP sonar profiles of these reflectors are expected to resolve fault or fold-related vertical relief (if present) greater than 50 cm. They would also resolve horizontal fault displacements with similar resolution, as may be expressed by offsets of either sedimentary or geomorphic features. No sedimentary cover on the land portion of the metro area offers such ideal reference surfaces, which are continuous in both time and space. Seismic profiles have a spacing of 200 m and have been acquired mostly perpendicular to the NW-striking faults mapped on land. These new data will be analyzed systematically for all resolvable features and then interpreted, distinguishing sedimentary, geomorphic, and tectonic features. The absence of evidence of post-glacial tectonic

  5. Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER) project and a next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takarada, S.

    2012-12-01

    The first Workshop of Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER1) was held in Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan from February 23 to 24, 2012. The workshop focused on the formulation of strategies to reduce the risks of disasters worldwide caused by the occurrence of earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. More than 150 participants attended the workshop. During the workshop, the G-EVER1 accord was approved by the participants. The Accord consists of 10 recommendations like enhancing collaboration, sharing of resources, and making information about the risks of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions freely available and understandable. The G-EVER Hub website (http://g-ever.org) was established to promote the exchange of information and knowledge among the Asia-Pacific countries. Several G-EVER Working Groups and Task Forces were proposed. One of the working groups was tasked to make the next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system. The next-generation volcano hazard assessment system is useful for volcanic eruption prediction, risk assessment, and evacuation at various eruption stages. The assessment system is planned to be developed based on volcanic eruption scenario datasets, volcanic eruption database, and numerical simulations. Defining volcanic eruption scenarios based on precursor phenomena leading up to major eruptions of active volcanoes is quite important for the future prediction of volcanic eruptions. Compiling volcanic eruption scenarios after a major eruption is also important. A high quality volcanic eruption database, which contains compilations of eruption dates, volumes, and styles, is important for the next-generation volcano hazard assessment system. The volcanic eruption database is developed based on past eruption results, which only represent a subset of possible future scenarios. Hence, different distributions from the previous deposits are mainly observed due to the differences in

  6. Time-decreasing hazard and increasing time until the next earthquake

    SciT

    Corral, Alvaro

    2005-01-01

    The existence of a slowly always decreasing probability density for the recurrence times of earthquakes in the stationary case implies that the occurrence of an event at a given instant becomes more unlikely as time since the previous event increases. Consequently, the expected waiting time to the next earthquake increases with the elapsed time, that is, the event moves away fast to the future. We have found direct empirical evidence of this counterintuitive behavior in two worldwide catalogs as well as in diverse regional catalogs. Universal scaling functions describe the phenomenon well.

  7. Update of the USGS 2016 One-year Seismic Hazard Forecast for the Central and Eastern United States From Induced and Natural Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petersen, M. D.; Mueller, C. S.; Moschetti, M. P.; Hoover, S. M.; Llenos, A. L.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Michael, A. J.; Rubinstein, J. L.; McGarr, A.; Rukstales, K. S.

    2016-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey released a 2016 one-year forecast for seismic hazard in the central and eastern U.S., which included the influence from both induced and natural earthquakes. This forecast was primarily based on 2015 declustered seismicity rates but also included longer-term rates, 10- and 20- km smoothing distances, earthquakes between Mw 4.7 and maximum magnitudes of 6.0 or 7.1, and 9 alternative ground motion models. Results indicate that areas in Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, Arkansas, Texas, and the New Madrid Seismic Zone have a significant chance for damaging ground shaking levels in 2016 (greater than 1% chance of exceeding 0.12 PGA and MMI VI). We evaluate this one-year forecast by considering the earthquakes and ground shaking levels that occurred during the first half of 2016 (earthquakes not included in the forecast). During this period the full catalog records hundreds of events with M ≥ 3.0, but the declustered catalog eliminates most of these dependent earthquakes and results in much lower numbers of earthquakes. The declustered catalog based on USGS COMCAT indicates a M 5.1 earthquake occurred in the zone of highest hazard on the map. Two additional earthquakes of M ≥ 4.0 occurred in Oklahoma, and about 82 earthquakes of M ≥ 3.0 occurred with 77 in Oklahoma and Kansas, 4 in Raton Basin Colorado/New Mexico, and 1 near Cogdell Texas. In addition, 72 earthquakes occurred outside the zones of induced seismicity with more than half in New Madrid and eastern Tennessee. The catalog rates in the first half of 2016 and the corresponding seismic hazard were generally lower than in 2015. For example, the zones for Irving, Venus, and Fashing, Texas; Sun City, Kansas; and north-central Arkansas did not experience any earthquakes with M≥ 2.7 during this period. The full catalog rates were lower by about 30% in Raton Basin and the Oklahoma-Kansas zones but the declustered catalog rates did not drop as much. This decrease in earthquake

  8. Scenario earthquake hazards for the Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area, east-central California (ver. 2.0, January 2018)

    Chen, Rui; Branum, David M.; Wills, Chris J.; Hill, David P.

    2014-06-30

    As part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) multi-hazards project in the Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area, the California Geological Survey (CGS) developed several earthquake scenarios and evaluated potential seismic hazards, including ground shaking, surface fault rupture, liquefaction, and landslide hazards associated with these earthquake scenarios. The results of these analyses can be useful in estimating the extent of potential damage and economic losses because of potential earthquakes and also for preparing emergency response plans.The Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area has numerous active faults. Five of these faults or fault zones are considered capable of producing magnitude ≥6.7 earthquakes according to the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2) developed by the 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) and the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Program. These five faults are the Fish Slough, Hartley Springs, Hilton Creek, Mono Lake, and Round Valley Faults. CGS developed earthquake scenarios for these five faults in the study area and for the White Mountains Fault Zone to the east of the study area.In this report, an earthquake scenario is intended to depict the potential consequences of significant earthquakes. A scenario earthquake is not necessarily the largest or most damaging earthquake possible on a recognized fault. Rather it is both large enough and likely enough that emergency planners should consider it in regional emergency response plans. In particular, the ground motion predicted for a given scenario earthquake does not represent a full probabilistic hazard assessment, and thus it does not provide the basis for hazard zoning and earthquake-resistant building design.Earthquake scenarios presented here are based on fault geometry and activity data developed by the WGCEP, and are consistent with the 2008 Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHM). Alternatives

  9. Active fault databases: building a bridge between earthquake geologists and seismic hazard practitioners, the case of the QAFI v.3 database

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García-Mayordomo, Julián; Martín-Banda, Raquel; Insua-Arévalo, Juan M.; Álvarez-Gómez, José A.; Martínez-Díaz, José J.; Cabral, João

    2017-08-01

    Active fault databases are a very powerful and useful tool in seismic hazard assessment, particularly when singular faults are considered seismogenic sources. Active fault databases are also a very relevant source of information for earth scientists, earthquake engineers and even teachers or journalists. Hence, active fault databases should be updated and thoroughly reviewed on a regular basis in order to keep a standard quality and uniformed criteria. Desirably, active fault databases should somehow indicate the quality of the geological data and, particularly, the reliability attributed to crucial fault-seismic parameters, such as maximum magnitude and recurrence interval. In this paper we explain how we tackled these issues during the process of updating and reviewing the Quaternary Active Fault Database of Iberia (QAFI) to its current version 3. We devote particular attention to describing the scheme devised for classifying the quality and representativeness of the geological evidence of Quaternary activity and the accuracy of the slip rate estimation in the database. Subsequently, we use this information as input for a straightforward rating of the level of reliability of maximum magnitude and recurrence interval fault seismic parameters. We conclude that QAFI v.3 is a much better database than version 2 either for proper use in seismic hazard applications or as an informative source for non-specialized users. However, we already envision new improvements for a future update.

  10. An overview of the National Earthquake Information Center acquisition software system, Edge/Continuous Waveform Buffer

    Patton, John M.; Ketchum, David C.; Guy, Michelle R.

    2015-11-02

    This document provides an overview of the capabilities, design, and use cases of the data acquisition and archiving subsystem at the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center. The Edge and Continuous Waveform Buffer software supports the National Earthquake Information Center’s worldwide earthquake monitoring mission in direct station data acquisition, data import, short- and long-term data archiving, data distribution, query services, and playback, among other capabilities. The software design and architecture can be configured to support acquisition and (or) archiving use cases. The software continues to be developed in order to expand the acquisition, storage, and distribution capabilities.

  11. Why people do what they do to protect against earthquake risk: perceptions of hazard adjustment attributes.

    PubMed

    Lindell, Michael K; Arlikatti, Sudha; Prater, Carla S

    2009-08-01

    This study examined respondents' self-reported adoption of 16 hazard adjustments (preimpact actions to reduce danger to persons and property), their perceptions of those adjustments' attributes, and the correlations of those perceived attributes with respondents' demographic characteristics. The sample comprised 561 randomly selected residents from three cities in Southern California prone to high seismic risk and three cities from Western Washington prone to moderate seismic risks. The results show that the hazard adjustment perceptions were defined by hazard-related attributes and resource-related attributes. More significantly, the respondents had a significant degree of consensus in their ratings of those attributes and used them to differentiate among the hazard adjustments, as indicated by statistically significant differences among the hazard adjustment profiles. Finally, there were many significant correlations between respondents' demographic characteristics and the perceived characteristics of hazard adjustments, but there were few consistent patterns among these correlations.

  12. Earthquakes: Natural Science Museum and Civil Protection of Trento to inform citizens

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lauro, Claudia; Avanzini, Marco

    2010-05-01

    During 2009 the Natural Science Museum of Trento organized the exhibition "Attraction Earth: Earthquakes and Terrestrial Magnetism" in collaboration with the INGV (Italian National Institute of Geophysic and Volcanology). In this exhibition a particular sector has been devoted to the seismic activity and its monitoring in the Province of Trento. The purpose was to inform local people on the geological features of their territory, the monitoring activity carried out by the Civil Protection and the potential earthquake hazards, also in order to adopt a correct behaviour in case of seismic event. This sector, "The seismometric Trentino network", was organized by the Geological Service of the Trento Civil Protection and it is open till May 2010, both for general public and school students. For the latter, a particular education pack, realized by the Educational Department of the Museum and consisting of a guided tour coupled with the laboratory activity "Waves upside-down: seismology", is proposed. The whole exhibition has been also coupled with a cycle conferences targeted to adults, in which these topics have been explained by researchers and technicians of INGV and of Trento Geological Service. "The seismometric Trentino network" sector presents the daily monitoring activity of the Geological Service, that has been monitoring the seismic activity for the last 30 years, and describes the deep earth processes of the local territory, such as presence of tectonic discontinuities and their activity. It consists of display panels, a seismometer with rotating drums and a multimedia that reports the monitoring activity of the seismometric network, with real time connection to the various monitoring stations. This allows visitors to observe instantly the local seismic events recorded by each station. The seismometric network was established by the institutions of Trento Province after the earthquakes occurred in Friuli Venezia-Giulia and at Riva del Garda (1976). It started

  13. Stress changes from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and increased hazard in the Sichuan basin

    Parsons, T.; Ji, C.; Kirby, E.

    2008-01-01

    On 12 May 2008, the devastating magnitude 7.9 (Wenchuan) earthquake struck the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau, collapsing buildings and killing thousands in major cities aligned along the western Sichuan basin in China. After such a large-magnitude earthquake, rearrangement of stresses in the crust commonly leads to subsequent damaging earthquakes. The mainshock of the 12 May earthquake ruptured with as much as 9 m of slip along the boundary between the Longmen Shan and Sichuan basin, and demonstrated the complex strike-slip and thrust motion that characterizes the region. The Sichuan basin and surroundings are also crossed by other active strike-slip and thrust faults. Here we present calculations of the coseismic stress changes that resulted from the 12 May event using models of those faults, and show that many indicate significant stress increases. Rapid mapping of such stress changes can help to locate fault sections with relatively higher odds of producing large aftershocks. ??2008 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

  14. Stochastic ground-motion simulation of two Himalayan earthquakes: seismic hazard assessment perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harbindu, Ashish; Sharma, Mukat Lal; Kamal

    2012-04-01

    The earthquakes in Uttarkashi (October 20, 1991, M w 6.8) and Chamoli (March 8, 1999, M w 6.4) are among the recent well-documented earthquakes that occurred in the Garhwal region of India and that caused extensive damage as well as loss of life. Using strong-motion data of these two earthquakes, we estimate their source, path, and site parameters. The quality factor ( Q β ) as a function of frequency is derived as Q β ( f) = 140 f 1.018. The site amplification functions are evaluated using the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio technique. The ground motions of the Uttarkashi and Chamoli earthquakes are simulated using the stochastic method of Boore (Bull Seismol Soc Am 73:1865-1894, 1983). The estimated source, path, and site parameters are used as input for the simulation. The simulated time histories are generated for a few stations and compared with the observed data. The simulated response spectra at 5% damping are in fair agreement with the observed response spectra for most of the stations over a wide range of frequencies. Residual trends closely match the observed and simulated response spectra. The synthetic data are in rough agreement with the ground-motion attenuation equation available for the Himalayas (Sharma, Bull Seismol Soc Am 98:1063-1069, 1998).

  15. Program and plans of the U.S. Geological Survey for producing information needed in National Seismic hazards and risk assessment, fiscal years 1980-84

    Hays, Walter W.

    1979-01-01

    In accordance with the provisions of the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-124), the U.S. Geological Survey has developed comprehensive plans for producing information needed to assess seismic hazards and risk on a national scale in fiscal years 1980-84. These plans are based on a review of the needs of Federal Government agencies, State and local government agencies, engineers and scientists engaged in consulting and research, professional organizations and societies, model code groups, and others. The Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act provided an unprecedented opportunity for participation in a national program by representatives of State and local governments, business and industry, the design professions, and the research community. The USGS and the NSF (National Science Foundation) have major roles in the national program. The ultimate goal of the program is to reduce losses from earthquakes. Implementation of USGS research in the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program requires the close coordination of responsibility between Federal, State and local governments. The projected research plan in national seismic hazards and risk for fiscal years 1980-84 will be accomplished by USGS and non-USGS scientists and engineers. The latter group will participate through grants and contracts. The research plan calls for (1) national maps based on existing methods, (2) improved definition of earthquake source zones nationwide, (3) development of improved methodology, (4) regional maps based on the improved methodology, and (5) post-earthquake investigations. Maps and reports designed to meet the needs, priorities, concerns, and recommendations of various user groups will be the products of this research and provide the technical basis for improved implementation.

  16. Toxics Release Inventory Chemical Hazard Information Profiles (TRI-CHIP) Dataset

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) Chemical Hazard Information Profiles (TRI-CHIP) dataset contains hazard information about the chemicals reported in TRI. Users can use this XML-format dataset to create their own databases and hazard analyses of TRI chemicals. The hazard information is compiled from a series of authoritative sources including the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS). The dataset is provided as a downloadable .zip file that when extracted provides XML files and schemas for the hazard information tables.

  17. The Southern California Earthquake Center/Undergraduate Studies in Earthquake Information Technology (SCEC/UseIT) Internship Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perry, S.; Jordan, T.

    2006-12-01

    Our undergraduate research program, SCEC/UseIT, an NSF Research Experience for Undergraduates site, provides software for earthquake researchers and educators, movies for outreach, and ways to strengthen the technical career pipeline. SCEC/UseIT motivates diverse undergraduates towards science and engineering careers through team-based research in the exciting field of earthquake information technology. UseIT provides the cross-training in computer science/information technology (CS/IT) and geoscience needed to make fundamental progress in earthquake system science. Our high and increasing participation of women and minority students is crucial given the nation"s precipitous enrollment declines in CS/IT undergraduate degree programs, especially among women. UseIT also casts a "wider, farther" recruitment net that targets scholars interested in creative work but not traditionally attracted to summer science internships. Since 2002, SCEC/UseIT has challenged 79 students in three dozen majors from as many schools with difficult, real-world problems that require collaborative, interdisciplinary solutions. Interns design and engineer open-source software, creating increasingly sophisticated visualization tools (see "SCEC-VDO," session IN11), which are employed by SCEC researchers, in new curricula at the University of Southern California, and by outreach specialists who make animated movies for the public and the media. SCEC-VDO would be a valuable tool for research-oriented professional development programs.

  18. Determination of Bedrock Variations and S-wave Velocity Structure in the NW part of Turkey for Earthquake Hazard Mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ozel, A. O.; Arslan, M. S.; Aksahin, B. B.; Genc, T.; Isseven, T.; Tuncer, M. K.

    2015-12-01

    Tekirdag region (NW Turkey) is quite close to the North Anatolian Fault which is capable of producing a large earthquake. Therefore, earthquake hazard mitigation studies are important for the urban areas close to the major faults. From this point of view, integration of different geophysical methods has important role for the study of seismic hazard problems including seismotectonic zoning. On the other hand, geological mapping and determining the subsurface structure, which is a key to assist management of new developed areas, conversion of current urban areas or assessment of urban geological hazards can be performed by integrated geophysical methods. This study has been performed in the frame of a national project, which is a complimentary project of the cooperative project between Turkey and Japan (JICA&JST), named as "Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in the Marmara Region and Disaster Education". With this principal aim, this study is focused on Tekirdag and its surrounding region (NW of Turkey) where some uncertainties in subsurface knowledge (maps of bedrock depth, thickness of quaternary sediments, basin geometry and seismic velocity structure,) need to be resolved. Several geophysical methods (microgravity, magnetic and single station and array microtremor measurements) are applied and the results are evaluated to characterize lithological changes in the region. Array microtremor measurements with several radiuses are taken in 30 locations and 1D-velocity structures of S-waves are determined by the inversion of phase velocities of surface waves, and the results of 1D structures are verified by theoretical Rayleigh wave modelling. Following the array measurements, single-station microtremor measurements are implemented at 75 locations to determine the predominant frequency distribution. The predominant frequencies in the region range from 0.5 Hz to 8 Hz in study area. On the other hand, microgravity and magnetic measurements are performed on

  19. Vulnerability assessment of a port and harbor community to earthquake and tsunami hazards: Integrating technical expert and stakeholder input

    Wood, Nathan J.; Good, James W.; Goodwin, Robert F.

    2002-01-01

    Research suggests that the Pacific Northwest could experience catastrophic earthquakes and tsunamis in the near future, posing a significant threat to the numerous ports and harbors along the coast. A collaborative, multiagency initiative is underway to increase the resiliency of Pacific Northwest ports and harbors to these hazards, involving Oregon Sea Grant, Washington Sea Grant, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Services Center, and the U.S. Geological Survey Center for Science Policy. One element of this research, planning, and outreach initiative is a natural hazard mitigation and emergency preparedness planning process that combines technical expertise with local stakeholder values and perceptions. This paper summarizes and examines one component of the process, the vulnerability assessment methodology, used in the pilot port and harbor community of Yaquina River, Oregon, as a case study of assessing vulnerability at the local level. In this community, stakeholders were most concerned with potential life loss and other nonstructural vulnerability issues, such as inadequate hazard awareness, communication, and response logistics, rather than structural issues, such as damage to specific buildings or infrastructure.

  20. Geological-Seismological Evaluation of Earthquake Hazards at Prompton and Francis E. Walter Damsites, Pennsylvania.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1986-09-01

    gravity anomalies for the study area were prepared by 15 Wa *~~~.. A *-S A J~ V Hildreth (1979) and are shown in Figure 8. Magnetic anomalies for...the gravity and the magnetic anomalies reflect the patterns of the folded strata and the associated faulting. The magnetic anomalies are in- dicative...BOUGUER GRAVITY ANOMALY 5 C- -- I5 CONTOUR INTERVAL 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 26 - -KM 2 AND 5 MILLIGALS BOUNDARY FOR EARTHQUAKE /: I SOURCE

  1. Geological-Seismological Evaluation of Earthquake Hazards at J. Strom Thurmond Dam

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1993-08-01

    14-08-001- 14553, 92 p. Talwani, P., Stevenson, D., Sauber , 3., Rastogl,_ B.K., :Drew, A., Chiang, 3. and Amick, D., 1978. Seismicity studies at Lake...crust in the eastern United States, final report, Engineers International, Inc., prepared for U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 75 pp. Sauber , Jeanne...studies following the 2 August 1974 South Carolina earthquake, E Notes, 46, No. 4, 21-28. Talwani, P., D. Stevenson, J. Chiang, J. Sauber , and D. Amick

  2. Surface-seismic imaging for nehrp soil profile classifications and earthquake hazards in urban areas

    Williams, R.A.; Stephenson, W.J.; Odum, J.K.

    1998-01-01

    We acquired high-resolution seismic-refraction data on the ground surface in selected areas of the San Fernando Valley (SFV) to help explain the earthquake damage patterns and the variation in ground motion caused by the 17 January 1994 magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquake. We used these data to determine the compressional- and shear-wave velocities (Vp and Vs) at 20 aftershock recording sites to 30-m depth ( V??s30, and V??p30). Two other sites, located next to boreholes with downhole Vp and Vs data, show that we imaged very similar seismic-vefocity structures in the upper 40 m. Overall, high site response appears to be associated with tow Vs in the near surface, but there can be a wide rangepf site amplifications for a given NEHRP soil type. The data suggest that for the SFV, if the V??s30 is known, we can determine whether the earthquake ground motion will be amplified above a factor of 2 relative to a local rock site.

  3. Sn to Sg conversion and focusing along the Atlantic margin, Morocco - Implications for earthquake hazard evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seber, Dogan; Barazangi, Muawia; Tadili, Ben A.; Ramdani, Mohamed; Ibenbrahim, Aomar; Ben Sari, Driss; El Alami, Sidi O.

    1993-07-01

    Digital data from a telemetered, short-period seismic network in Morocco provide a new perspective for understanding the cause of severe shaking and macroseismic reports in Morocco produced by large offshore earthquakes located along the Azores-Gibraltar seismic zone. Even though the earthquake epicenters are 500-1000 km away from the Moroccan coast, historical records show that such events are capable of producing considerable damage in inland areas. We analyze 15 earthquakes that occurred in this region. The records show multiple S phases with varying frequencies and amplitudes. The S phase with the largest amplitude, usually misinterpreted as Sn, has a phase velocity of 4.2-4.4 km/s. We show that these S arrivals can best be explained as Sn to Sg converted phases. Calculated locations of the conversion points for these phases exhibit two distinct zones almost parallel to the Atlantic coastline: one is located along the passive continental margin and the other is located about 100 km inland from the coastline. We interpret these two zones to be regions where a sudden change in crustal thickness occurs. Such zones act to focus and magnify the amplitudes of seismic phases.

  4. 75 FR 82005 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Hazardous Waste...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-12-29

    ... hazardous waste or hazardous constituents to air, soil, or surface water. This information is also needed to... environment from hazardous waste accumulation practices, including contamination from equipment leaks and...

  5. 77 FR 12046 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Hazardous...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-02-28

    ... Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Hazardous Remediation Waste Management Requirements (HWIR... approved Information Collection Request (ICR) concerning the hazardous remediation waste management... business or other for-profit. Title: Hazardous Remediation Waste Management Requirements (HWIR Contaminated...

  6. Large-Scale Earthquake Countermeasures Act and the Earthquake Prediction Council in Japan

    SciT

    Rikitake, T.

    1979-08-07

    The Large-Scale Earthquake Countermeasures Act was enacted in Japan in December 1978. This act aims at mitigating earthquake hazards by designating an area to be an area under intensified measures against earthquake disaster, such designation being based on long-term earthquake prediction information, and by issuing an earthquake warnings statement based on imminent prediction information, when possible. In an emergency case as defined by the law, the prime minister will be empowered to take various actions which cannot be taken at ordinary times. For instance, he may ask the Self-Defense Force to come into the earthquake-threatened area before the earthquake occurrence.more » A Prediction Council has been formed in order to evaluate premonitory effects that might be observed over the Tokai area, which was designated an area under intensified measures against earthquake disaster some time in June 1979. An extremely dense observation network has been constructed over the area.« less

  7. Environmental Factor{trademark} system: RCRA hazardous waste handler information

    SciT

    NONE

    1999-03-01

    Environmental Factor{trademark} RCRA Hazardous Waste Handler Information on CD-ROM unleashes the invaluable information found in two key EPA data sources on hazardous waste handlers and offers cradle-to-grave waste tracking. It`s easy to search and display: (1) Permit status, design capacity and compliance history for facilities found in the EPA Resource Conservation and Recovery Information System (RCRIS) program tracking database; (2) Detailed information on hazardous wastes generation, management and minimization by companies who are large quantity generators, and (3) Data on the waste management practices of treatment, storage and disposal (TSD) facilities from the EPA Biennial Reporting System which is collectedmore » every other year. Environmental Factor`s powerful database retrieval system lets you: (1) Search for RCRA facilities by permit type, SIC code, waste codes, corrective action or violation information, TSD status, generator and transporter status and more; (2) View compliance information -- dates of evaluation, violation, enforcement and corrective action; (3) Lookup facilities by waste processing categories of marketing, transporting, processing and energy recovery; (4) Use owner/operator information and names, titles and telephone numbers of project managers for prospecting; and (5) Browse detailed data on TSD facility and large quantity generators` activities such as onsite waste treatment, disposal, or recycling, offsite waste received, and waste generation and management. The product contains databases, search and retrieval software on two CD-ROMs, an installation diskette and User`s Guide. Environmental Factor has online context-sensitive help from any screen and a printed User`s Guide describing installation and step-by-step procedures for searching, retrieving and exporting. Hotline support is also available for no additional charge.« less

  8. Using Google Maps to Access USGS Volcano Hazards Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Venezky, D. Y.; Snedigar, S.; Guffanti, M.; Bailey, J. E.; Wall, B. G.

    2006-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazard Program (VHP) is revising the information architecture of our website to provide data within a geospatial context for emergency managers, educators, landowners in volcanic areas, researchers, and the general public. Using a map-based interface for displaying hazard information provides a synoptic view of volcanic activity along with the ability to quickly ascertain where hazards are in relation to major population and infrastructure centers. At the same time, the map interface provides a gateway for educators and the public to find information about volcanoes in their geographic context. A plethora of data visualization solutions are available that are flexible, customizable, and can be run on individual websites. We are currently using a Google map interface because it can be accessed immediately from a website (a downloadable viewer is not required), and it provides simple features for moving around and zooming within the large map area that encompasses U.S. volcanism. A text interface will also be available. The new VHP website will serve as a portal to information for each volcano the USGS monitors with icons for alert levels and aviation color codes. When a volcano is clicked, a window will provide additional information including links to maps, images, and real-time data, thereby connecting information from individual observatories, the Smithsonian Institution, and our partner universities. In addition to the VHP home page, many observatories and partners have detailed graphical interfaces to data and images that include the activity pages for the Alaska Volcano Observatory, the Smithsonian Google Earth files, and Yellowstone Volcano Observatory pictures and data. Users with varied requests such as raw data, scientific papers, images, or brief overviews expect to be able to quickly access information for their specialized needs. Over the next few years we will be gathering, cleansing, reorganizing, and posting

  9. Direction based Hazard Routing Protocol (DHRP) for disseminating road hazard information using road side infrastructures in VANETs.

    PubMed

    Berlin, M A; Anand, Sheila

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents Direction based Hazard Routing Protocol (DHRP) for disseminating information about fixed road hazards such as road blocks, tree fall, boulders on road, snow pile up, landslide, road maintenance work and other obstacles to the vehicles approaching the hazardous location. The proposed work focuses on dissemination of hazard messages on highways with sparse traffic. The vehicle coming across the hazard would report the presence of the hazard. It is proposed to use Road Side fixed infrastructure Units for reliable and timely delivery of hazard messages to vehicles. The vehicles can then take appropriate safety action to avoid the hazardous location. The proposed protocol has been implemented and tested using SUMO simulator to generate road traffic and NS 2.33 network simulator to analyze the performance of DHRP. The performance of the proposed protocol was also compared with simple flooding protocol and the results are presented.

  10. Seismic hazard and seismic risk assessment based on the unified scaling law for earthquakes: Himalayas and adjacent regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nekrasova, A. K.; Kossobokov, V. G.; Parvez, I. A.

    2015-03-01

    For the Himalayas and neighboring regions, the maps of seismic hazard and seismic risk are constructed with the use of the estimates for the parameters of the unified scaling law for earthquakes (USLE), in which the Gutenberg-Richter law for magnitude distribution of seismic events within a given area is applied in the modified version with allowance for linear dimensions of the area, namely, log N( M, L) = A + B (5 - M) + C log L, where N( M, L) is the expected annual number of the earthquakes with magnitude M in the area with linear dimension L. The spatial variations in the parameters A, B, and C for the Himalayas and adjacent regions are studied on two time intervals from 1965 to 2011 and from 1980 to 2011. The difference in A, B, and C between these two time intervals indicates that seismic activity experiences significant variations on a scale of a few decades. With a global consideration of the seismic belts of the Earth overall, the estimates of coefficient A, which determines the logarithm of the annual average frequency of the earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.0 and higher in the zone with a linear dimension of 1 degree of the Earth's meridian, differ by a factor of 30 and more and mainly fall in the interval from -1.1 to 0.5. The values of coefficient B, which describes the balance between the number of earthquakes with different magnitudes, gravitate to 0.9 and range from less than 0.6 to 1.1 and higher. The values of coefficient C, which estimates the fractal dimension of the local distribution of epicenters, vary from 0.5 to 1.4 and higher. In the Himalayas and neighboring regions, the USLE coefficients mainly fall in the intervals of -1.1 to 0.3 for A, 0.8 to 1.3 for B, and 1.0 to 1.4 for C. The calculations of the local value of the expected peak ground acceleration (PGA) from the maximal expected magnitude provided the necessary basis for mapping the seismic hazards in the studied region. When doing this, we used the local estimates of the

  11. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment along Nankai Trough (2) a comprehensive assessment including a variety of earthquake source areas other than those that the Earthquake Research Committee, Japanese government (2013) showed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirata, K.; Fujiwara, H.; Nakamura, H.; Osada, M.; Morikawa, N.; Kawai, S.; Ohsumi, T.; Aoi, S.; Yamamoto, N.; Matsuyama, H.; Toyama, N.; Kito, T.; Murashima, Y.; Murata, Y.; Inoue, T.; Saito, R.; Takayama, J.; Akiyama, S.; Korenaga, M.; Abe, Y.; Hashimoto, N.

    2016-12-01

    For the forthcoming Nankai earthquake with M8 to M9 class, the Earthquake Research Committee(ERC)/Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, Japanese government (2013) showed 15 examples of earthquake source areas (ESAs) as possible combinations of 18 sub-regions (6 segments along trough and 3 segments normal to trough) and assessed the occurrence probability within the next 30 years (from Jan. 1, 2013) was 60% to 70%. Hirata et al.(2015, AGU) presented Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) along Nankai Trough in the case where diversity of the next event's ESA is modeled by only the 15 ESAs. In this study, we newly set 70 ESAs in addition of the previous 15 ESAs so that total of 85 ESAs are considered. By producing tens of faults models, with various slip distribution patterns, for each of 85 ESAs, we obtain 2500 fault models in addition of previous 1400 fault models so that total of 3900 fault models are considered to model the diversity of the next Nankai earthquake rupture (Toyama et al.,2015, JpGU). For PTHA, the occurrence probability of the next Nankai earthquake is distributed to possible 3900 fault models in the viewpoint of similarity to the 15 ESAs' extents (Abe et al.,2015, JpGU). A major concept of the occurrence probability distribution is; (i) earthquakes rupturing on any of 15 ESAs that ERC(2013) showed most likely occur, (ii) earthquakes rupturing on any of ESAs whose along-trench extent is the same as any of 15 ESAs but trough-normal extent differs from it second likely occur, (iii) earthquakes rupturing on any of ESAs whose both of along-trough and trough-normal extents differ from any of 15 ESAs rarely occur. Procedures for tsunami simulation and probabilistic tsunami hazard synthesis are the same as Hirata et al (2015). A tsunami hazard map, synthesized under an assumption that the Nankai earthquakes can be modeled as a renewal process based on BPT distribution with a mean recurrence interval of 88.2 years (ERC, 2013) and an

  12. Unexpected earthquake hazard revealed by Holocene rupture on the Kenchreai Fault (central Greece): Implications for weak sub-fault shear zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Copley, Alex; Grützner, Christoph; Howell, Andy; Jackson, James; Penney, Camilla; Wimpenny, Sam

    2018-03-01

    High-resolution elevation models, palaeoseismic trenching, and Quaternary dating demonstrate that the Kenchreai Fault in the eastern Gulf of Corinth (Greece) has ruptured in the Holocene. Along with the adjacent Pisia and Heraion Faults (which ruptured in 1981), our results indicate the presence of closely-spaced and parallel normal faults that are simultaneously active, but at different rates. Such a configuration allows us to address one of the major questions in understanding the earthquake cycle, specifically what controls the distribution of interseismic strain accumulation? Our results imply that the interseismic loading and subsequent earthquakes on these faults are governed by weak shear zones in the underlying ductile crust. In addition, the identification of significant earthquake slip on a fault that does not dominate the late Quaternary geomorphology or vertical coastal motions in the region provides an important lesson in earthquake hazard assessment.

  13. Marine and land active-source seismic investigation of geothermal potential, tectonic structure, and earthquake hazards in Pyramid Lake, Nevada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eisses, A.; Kell, A. M.; Kent, G.; Driscoll, N. W.; Karlin, R. E.; Baskin, R. L.; Louie, J. N.; Smith, K. D.; Pullammanappallil, S.

    2011-12-01

    Preliminary slip rates measured across the East Pyramid Lake fault, or the Lake Range fault, help provide new estimates of extension across the Pyramid Lake basin. Multiple stratigraphic horizons spanning 48 ka were tracked throughout the lake, with layer offsets measured across all significant faults in the basin. A chronstratigraphic framework acquired from four sediment cores allows slip rates of the Lake Range and other faults to be calculated accurately. This region of the northern Walker Lake, strategically placed between the right-lateral strike-slip faults of Honey and Eagle Lakes to the north, and the normal fault bounded basins to the southwest (e.g., Tahoe, Carson), is critical in understanding the underlying structural complexity that is not only necessary for geothermal exploration, but also earthquake hazard assessment due to the proximity of the Reno-Sparks metropolitan area. In addition, our seismic CHIRP imaging with submeter resolution allows the construction of the first fault map of Pyramid Lake. The Lake Range fault can be obviously traced west of Anahoe Island extending north along the east end of the lake in numerous CHIRP lines. Initial drafts of the fault map reveal active transtension through a series of numerous, small, northwest striking, oblique-slip faults in the north end of the lake. A previously field mapped northwest striking fault near Sutcliff can be extended into the west end of Pyramid Lake. This fault map, along with the calculated slip rate of the Lake Range, and potentially multiple other faults, gives a clearer picture into understanding the geothermal potential, tectonic regime and earthquake hazards in the Pyramid Lake basin and the northern Walker Lane. These new results have also been merged with seismicity maps, along with focal mechanisms for the larger events to begin to extend our fault map in depth.

  14. Geological-Seismological Evaluation of Earthquake Hazards for Appurtenant Structures at Gathright Dam, Virginia

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1990-07-01

    1979, Late Holocene faulting and earthquake recurrence in the Reelfoot Lake area, northwestern Tennessee, Bull, Geol. Soc. Am.. vol. J. pp. 1013-1018...upstream from Covington, Virginia. The dam is located in northern Alleghany County and the majority of the reservoir, Lake Moomaw, is located in southern...Bath County. Lake Moomaw is approximately 12 miles (19 km) long and ranges from less than 1/4 to 1-1/2 miles (1/2 to 2-1/2 km) in width. Gathright Dam

  15. How citizen seismology is transforming rapid public earthquake information and interactions between seismologists and society

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bossu, Rémy; Steed, Robert; Mazet-Roux, Gilles; Roussel, Fréderic; Caroline, Etivant

    2015-04-01

    Historical earthquakes are only known to us through written recollections and so seismologists have a long experience of interpreting the reports of eyewitnesses, explaining probably why seismology has been a pioneer in crowdsourcing and citizen science. Today, Internet has been transforming this situation; It can be considered as the digital nervous system comprising of digital veins and intertwined sensors that capture the pulse of our planet in near real-time. How can both seismology and public could benefit from this new monitoring system? This paper will present the strategy implemented at Euro-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC) to leverage this new nervous system to detect and diagnose the impact of earthquakes within minutes rather than hours and how it transformed information systems and interactions with the public. We will show how social network monitoring and flashcrowds (massive website traffic increases on EMSC website) are used to automatically detect felt earthquakes before seismic detections, how damaged areas can me mapped through concomitant loss of Internet sessions (visitors being disconnected) and the benefit of collecting felt reports and geolocated pictures to further constrain rapid impact assessment of global earthquakes. We will also describe how public expectations within tens of seconds of ground shaking are at the basis of improved diversified information tools which integrate this user generated contents. A special attention will be given to LastQuake, the most complex and sophisticated Twitter QuakeBot, smartphone application and browser add-on, which deals with the only earthquakes that matter for the public: the felt and damaging earthquakes. In conclusion we will demonstrate that eyewitnesses are today real time earthquake sensors and active actors of rapid earthquake information.

  16. The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst: geographic information systems software for modeling hazard evacuation potential

    Jones, Jeanne M.; Ng, Peter; Wood, Nathan J.

    2014-01-01

    Recent disasters such as the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake and tsunami; the 2013 Colorado floods; and the 2014 Oso, Washington, mudslide have raised awareness of catastrophic, sudden-onset hazards that arrive within minutes of the events that trigger them, such as local earthquakes or landslides. Due to the limited amount of time between generation and arrival of sudden-onset hazards, evacuations are typically self-initiated, on foot, and across the landscape (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012). Although evacuation to naturally occurring high ground may be feasible in some vulnerable communities, evacuation modeling has demonstrated that other communities may require vertical-evacuation structures within a hazard zone, such as berms or buildings, if at-risk individuals are to survive some types of sudden-onset hazards (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2013). Researchers use both static least-cost-distance (LCD) and dynamic agent-based models to assess the pedestrian evacuation potential of vulnerable communities. Although both types of models help to understand the evacuation landscape, LCD models provide a more general overview that is independent of population distributions, which may be difficult to quantify given the dynamic spatial and temporal nature of populations (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012). Recent LCD efforts related to local tsunami threats have focused on an anisotropic (directionally dependent) path distance modeling approach that incorporates travel directionality, multiple travel speed assumptions, and cost surfaces that reflect variations in slope and land cover (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012, 2013). The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst software implements this anisotropic path-distance approach for pedestrian evacuation from sudden-onset hazards, with a particular focus at this time on local tsunami threats. The model estimates evacuation potential based on elevation, direction of movement, land cover, and travel speed and creates a map showing travel times to safety (a

  17. Natural Hazards within the West Indies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cross, John A.

    1992-01-01

    Outlines the vulnerability of the West Indies to various natural hazards, especially hurricanes, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions. Reviews the geologic and meteorologic causes and consequences of the hazards. Suggests methods of incorporating hazards information in geography classes. Includes maps and a hurricane tracking chart. (DK)

  18. Geographical Information Analysis of Tsunami Flooded Area by the Great East Japan Earthquake Using Mobile Mapping System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koarai, M.; Okatani, T.; Nakano, T.; Nakamura, T.; Hasegawa, M.

    2012-07-01

    The great earthquake occurred in Tohoku District, Japan on 11th March, 2011. This earthquake is named "the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake", and the damage by this earthquake is named "the Great East Japan Earthquake". About twenty thousand people were killed or lost by the tsunami of this earthquake, and large area was flooded and a large number of buildings were destroyed by the tsunami. The Geospatial Information Authority of Japan (GSI) has provided the data of tsunami flooded area interpreted from aerial photos taken just after the great earthquake. This is fundamental data of tsunami damage and very useful for consideration of reconstruction planning of tsunami damaged area. The authors analyzed the relationship among land use, landform classification, DEMs data flooded depth of the tsunami flooded area by the Great East Japan Earthquake in the Sendai Plain using GIS. Land use data is 100 meter grid data of National Land Information Data by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transportation and Tourism (MLIT). Landform classification data is vector data of Land Condition Map produced by GSI. DEMs data are 5 meters grid data measured with LiDAR by GSI after earthquake. Especially, the authors noticed the relationship between tsunami hazard damage and flooded depth. The authors divided tsunami damage into three categories by interpreting aerial photos; first is the completely destroyed area where almost wooden buildings were lost, second is the heavily damaged area where a large number of houses were destroyed by the tsunami, and third is the flooded only area where houses were less destroyed. The flooded depth was measured by photogrammetric method using digital image taken by Mobile Mapping System (MMS). The result of these geographic analyses show the distribution of tsunami damage level is as follows: 1) The completely destroyed area was located within 1km area from the coastline, flooded depth of this area is over 4m, and no relationship

  19. 77 FR 59675 - Compliance With Information Request, Flooding Hazard Reevaluation

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-09-28

    ... height that inundated the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant site. The earthquake and tsunami... industry in the northeastern coastal areas of Japan. When the earthquake occurred, Fukushima Dai-ichi Units... appears to have been normal. Following the events at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant, the NRC...

  20. Deep-Sea Turbidites as Guides to Holocene Earthquake History at the Cascadia Subduction Zone—Alternative Views for a Seismic-Hazard Workshop

    Atwater, Brian F.; Griggs, Gary B.

    2012-01-01

    This report reviews the geological basis for some recent estimates of earthquake hazards in the Cascadia region between southern British Columbia and northern California. The largest earthquakes to which the region is prone are in the range of magnitude 8-9. The source of these great earthquakes is the fault down which the oceanic Juan de Fuca Plate is being subducted or thrust beneath the North American Plate. Geologic evidence for their occurrence includes sedimentary deposits that have been observed in cores from deep-sea channels and fans. Earthquakes can initiate subaqueous slumps or slides that generate turbidity currents and which produce the sedimentary deposits known as turbidites. The hazard estimates reviewed in this report are derived mainly from deep-sea turbidites that have been interpreted as proxy records of great Cascadia earthquakes. The estimates were first published in 2008. Most of the evidence for them is contained in a monograph now in press. We have reviewed a small part of this evidence, chiefly from Cascadia Channel and its tributaries, all of which head offshore the Pacific coast of Washington State. According to the recent estimates, the Cascadia plate boundary ruptured along its full length in 19 or 20 earthquakes of magnitude 9 in the past 10,000 years; its northern third broke during these giant earthquakes only, and southern segments produced at least 20 additional, lesser earthquakes of Holocene age. The turbidite case for full-length ruptures depends on stratigraphic evidence for simultaneous shaking at the heads of multiple submarine canyons. The simultaneity has been inferred primarily from turbidite counts above a stratigraphic datum, sandy beds likened to strong-motion records, and radiocarbon ages adjusted for turbidity-current erosion. In alternatives proposed here, this turbidite evidence for simultaneous shaking is less sensitive to earthquake size and frequency than previously thought. Turbidites far below a channel

  1. OMG Earthquake! Can Twitter improve earthquake response?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Earle, P. S.; Guy, M.; Ostrum, C.; Horvath, S.; Buckmaster, R. A.

    2009-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public, text messages, can augment its earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. The goal is to gather near real-time, earthquake-related messages (tweets) and provide geo-located earthquake detections and rough maps of the corresponding felt areas. Twitter and other social Internet technologies are providing the general public with anecdotal earthquake hazard information before scientific information has been published from authoritative sources. People local to an event often publish information within seconds via these technologies. In contrast, depending on the location of the earthquake, scientific alerts take between 2 to 20 minutes. Examining the tweets following the March 30, 2009, M4.3 Morgan Hill earthquake shows it is possible (in some cases) to rapidly detect and map the felt area of an earthquake using Twitter responses. Within a minute of the earthquake, the frequency of “earthquake” tweets rose above the background level of less than 1 per hour to about 150 per minute. Using the tweets submitted in the first minute, a rough map of the felt area can be obtained by plotting the tweet locations. Mapping the tweets from the first six minutes shows observations extending from Monterey to Sacramento, similar to the perceived shaking region mapped by the USGS “Did You Feel It” system. The tweets submitted after the earthquake also provided (very) short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking. Accurately assessing the potential and robustness of a Twitter-based system is difficult because only tweets spanning the previous seven days can be searched, making a historical study impossible. We have, however, been archiving tweets for several months, and it is clear that significant limitations do exist. The main drawback is the lack of quantitative information

  2. Transient Aseismic Slip in the Cascadia Subduction Zone: From Monitoring to Useful Real-time Hazards Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roeloffs, E. A.; Beeler, N. M.

    2010-12-01

    The Cascadia subduction zone, extending from northern California to Vancouver Island, has a 10,000 year record of earthquakes > M8.5 at intervals of several hundred years, with the last major event (~M9) in 1700. Agencies in CA, OR, WA, and BC are raising public awareness of the hazards posed by a repeat Cascadia earthquake and its ensuing tsunami. Because most of the subduction interface is now seismically quiet, an interface event M6 or larger would generate intense public concern that it could be a potential foreshock of a great earthquake. Cascadia residents are also interested in the episodic tremor and slip (ETS) events that recur months to years apart: strong evidence implies these aseismic events represent accelerated interface slip downdip of the seismogenic zone. Simple mechanics implies ETS events temporarily increase the stressing rate on the locked zone. ETS events in northern Cascadia recur at fairly regular intervals and produced roughly similar patterns of deformation. However, an unusually large ETS event or increased interface seismicity would certainly prompt public officials and local residents to expect scientists to quickly determine the implications for a major Cascadia earthquake. Earthquake scientists generally agree that such “situations of concern” warrant close monitoring, but attempts to quantify potential probability changes are in very early stages. With >30 borehole strainmeters and >100 GPS stations of the NSF-funded Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) in Cascadia, geodesists must develop a well-organized real-time monitoring scheme for interpreting aseismic deformation, with an accompanying public communication strategy. Two previously-exercised monitoring and communication protocols could be adapted for Cascadia. During the Parkfield, California, Earthquake Experiment, geodetic signals were assigned alert levels based on their rareness in the past record, on confirmation by more than one instrument, and on consistency with

  3. Designing and Implementing a Retrospective Earthquake Detection Framework at the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patton, J.; Yeck, W.; Benz, H.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (USGS NEIC) is implementing and integrating new signal detection methods such as subspace correlation, continuous beamforming, multi-band picking and automatic phase identification into near-real-time monitoring operations. Leveraging the additional information from these techniques help the NEIC utilize a large and varied network on local to global scales. The NEIC is developing an ordered, rapid, robust, and decentralized framework for distributing seismic detection data as well as a set of formalized formatting standards. These frameworks and standards enable the NEIC to implement a seismic event detection framework that supports basic tasks, including automatic arrival time picking, social media based event detections, and automatic association of different seismic detection data into seismic earthquake events. In addition, this framework enables retrospective detection processing such as automated S-wave arrival time picking given a detected event, discrimination and classification of detected events by type, back-azimuth and slowness calculations, and ensuring aftershock and induced sequence detection completeness. These processes and infrastructure improve the NEIC's capabilities, accuracy, and speed of response. In addition, this same infrastructure provides an improved and convenient structure to support access to automatic detection data for both research and algorithmic development.

  4. The Canterbury Tales: Lessons from the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence to Inform Better Public Communication Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McBride, S.; Tilley, E. N.; Johnston, D. M.; Becker, J.; Orchiston, C.

    2015-12-01

    This research evaluates the public education earthquake information prior to the Canterbury Earthquake sequence (2010-present), and examines communication learnings to create recommendations for improvement in implementation for these types of campaigns in future. The research comes from a practitioner perspective of someone who worked on these campaigns in Canterbury prior to the Earthquake Sequence and who also was the Public Information Manager Second in Command during the earthquake response in February 2011. Documents, specifically those addressing seismic risk, that were created prior to the earthquake sequence, were analyzed, using a "best practice matrix" created by the researcher, for how closely these aligned to best practice academic research. Readability tests and word counts are also employed to assist with triangulation of the data as was practitioner involvement. This research also outlines the lessons learned by practitioners and explores their experiences in regards to creating these materials and how they perceive these now, given all that has happened since the inception of the booklets. The findings from the research showed these documents lacked many of the attributes of best practice. The overly long, jargon filled text had little positive outcome expectancy messages. This probably would have failed to persuade anyone that earthquakes were a real threat in Canterbury. Paradoxically, it is likely these booklets may have created fatalism in publics who read the booklets. While the overall intention was positive, for scientists to explain earthquakes, tsunami, landslides and other risks to encourage the public to prepare for these events, the implementation could be greatly improved. This final component of the research highlights points of improvement for implementation for more successful campaigns in future. The importance of preparedness and science information campaigns can be not only in preparing the population but also into development of

  5. Active Faults and Earthquake Hazards in the FY 79 Verification Sites - Nevada-Utah Siting Region.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-03-26

    structures, such as shelters and command/control facilities, away from rup- ture hazards. Again, the probability of rupture, the effect of damage and ...accommodate an MCE, and less critical structures (such as the shelters ) designed for a probabilistically determined event, may have merit for the MX...B., and Eaton, G. P., eds., Cenozoic tectonics and regional geophysics of the western cordillera : Geol. Soc. Am. Mem. 152, p. 1-32. Stewart, J. H

  6. Implosion, earthquake, and explosion recordings from the 2000 Seattle Kingdome Seismic Hazards Investigation of Puget Sound (SHIPS), Washington

    Brocher, Thomas M.; Pratt, Thomas L.; Weaver, Craig S.; Snelson, Catherine M.; Frankel, Arthur D.

    2002-01-01

    This report describes seismic data obtained in Seattle, Washington, March 24-28, 2000, during a Seismic Hazards Investigation of Puget Sound (SHIPS). The seismic recordings obtained by this SHIPS experiment, nicknamed Kingdome SHIPS, were designed to (1) measure site responses throughout Seattle and to (2) help define the location of the Seattle fault. During Kingdome SHIPS, we recorded the Kingdome implosion, four 150-lb (68-kg) shots, and a Mw = 7.6 teleseism using a dense network of seismographs deployed throughout Seattle. The seismographs were deployed at a nominal spacing of 1 km in a hexagonal grid extending from Green Lake in the north to Boeing Field in the south. The Seattle Kingdome was a domed sports stadium located in downtown Seattle near the Seattle fault. The Seattle Kingdome was imploded (demolished) at 8:32 AM local time (16:32 UTC) on March 26 (JD 086), 2000. The seismic energy produced by implosion of the Kingdome was equivalent to a local earthquake magnitude of 2.3. Strong impacts produced by the implosion of the Kingdome generated seismic arrivals to frequencies as low as 0.1 Hz. Two shots located north of the Seattle fault, where the charges were detonated within the ground water column (Discovery and Magnuson Parks), were much more strongly coupled than were the two shots to the south of the Seattle fault, where the shots were detonated above the water table (Lincoln and Seward Parks). Thirty-eight RefTek stations, scattered throughout Seattle, recorded the Mw = 7.6 Japan Volcano Islands earthquake (22.4°N, 143.6°E, 104 km depth) of 28 March 2000 (JD 088). This teleseism produced useful signals for periods between 4 and 7 seconds. Only a few recordings of small magnitude local earthquakes were made, and these recordings are not presented. In this report, we describe the acquisition of these data, discuss the processing and merging of the data into common shot gathers, and illustrate the acquired data. We also describe the format and

  7. Disseminating near-real-time hazards information and flood maps in the Philippines through Web-GIS.

    PubMed

    A Lagmay, Alfredo Mahar Francisco; Racoma, Bernard Alan; Aracan, Ken Adrian; Alconis-Ayco, Jenalyn; Saddi, Ivan Lester

    2017-09-01

    The Philippines being a locus of tropical cyclones, tsunamis, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, is a hotbed of disasters. These natural hazards inflict loss of lives and costly damage to property. Situated in a region where climate and geophysical tempest is common, the Philippines will inevitably suffer from calamities similar to those experienced recently. With continued development and population growth in hazard prone areas, it is expected that damage to infrastructure and human losses would persist and even rise unless appropriate measures are immediately implemented by government. In 2012, the Philippines launched a responsive program for disaster prevention and mitigation called the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (Project NOAH), specifically for government warning agencies to be able to provide a 6hr lead-time warning to vulnerable communities against impending floods and to use advanced technology to enhance current geo-hazard vulnerability maps. To disseminate such critical information to as wide an audience as possible, a Web-GIS using mashups of freely available source codes and application program interface (APIs) was developed and can be found in the URLs http://noah.dost.gov.ph and http://noah.up.edu.ph/. This Web-GIS tool is now heavily used by local government units in the Philippines in their disaster prevention and mitigation efforts and can be replicated in countries that have a proactive approach to address the impacts of natural hazards but lack sufficient funds. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  8. Emergency mapping and information management during Nepal Earthquake 2015 - Challenges and lesson learned

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joshi, G.; Gurung, D. R.

    2016-12-01

    A powerful 7.8 magnitude earthquake struck Nepal at 06:11 UTC on 25 April 2015. Several subsequent aftershocks were deadliest earthquake in recent history of Nepal. In total about 9000 people died and 22,300 people were injured, and lives of eight million people, almost one-third of the population of Nepal was effected. The event lead to massive campaigned to gather data and information on damage and loss using remote sensing, field inspection, and community survey. Information on distribution of relief materials is other important domain of information necessary for equitable relief distribution. Pre and post-earthquake high resolution satellite images helped in damage area assessment and mapping. Many national and international agencies became active to generate and fill the information vacuum. The challenges included data access bottleneck due to lack of good IT infrastructure; inconsistent products due to absence of standard mapping guidelines; dissemination challenges due to absence of Standard Operating Protocols and single information gateway. These challenges were negating opportunities offered by improved earth observation data availability, increasing engagement of volunteers for emergency mapping, and centralized emergency coordination practice. This paper highlights critical practical challenges encountered during emergency mapping and information management during the earthquake in Nepal. There is greater need to address such challenges to effectively use technological leverages that recent advancement in space science, IT and mapping domain provides.

  9. Analysis of landslide hazard area in Ludian earthquake based on Random Forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, J.-C.; Liu, R.; Li, H.-W.; Lai, Z.-L.

    2015-04-01

    With the development of machine learning theory, more and more algorithms are evaluated for seismic landslides. After the Ludian earthquake, the research team combine with the special geological structure in Ludian area and the seismic filed exploration results, selecting SLOPE(PODU); River distance(HL); Fault distance(DC); Seismic Intensity(LD) and Digital Elevation Model(DEM), the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) which based on remote sensing images as evaluation factors. But the relationships among these factors are fuzzy, there also exists heavy noise and high-dimensional, we introduce the random forest algorithm to tolerate these difficulties and get the evaluation result of Ludian landslide areas, in order to verify the accuracy of the result, using the ROC graphs for the result evaluation standard, AUC covers an area of 0.918, meanwhile, the random forest's generalization error rate decreases with the increase of the classification tree to the ideal 0.08 by using Out Of Bag(OOB) Estimation. Studying the final landslides inversion results, paper comes to a statistical conclusion that near 80% of the whole landslides and dilapidations are in areas with high susceptibility and moderate susceptibility, showing the forecast results are reasonable and adopted.

  10. Miocene to present deformation rates in the Yakima Fold Province and implications for earthquake hazards in central Washington State, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Staisch, Lydia; Sherrod, Brian; Kelsey, Harvey; Blakely, Richard; Möller, Andreas; Styron, Richard

    2017-04-01

    , which lack syntectonic growth strata, we exploit 2-m LiDAR data and invert stream profiles to analytically solve for a linear solution to relative uplift rate. From stream profile inversion, we see an increase in incision rates in Pliocene time and suggest that this increased rate is tectonically controlled. Our analyses indicate that deformation rates along the Manastash and Umtanum Ridge anticlines are significantly higher than along the Saddle Mountains. We use our new estimates of slip rates along individual anticlines to calculate the time required to accumulate enough strain energy for a large magnitude earthquake (M≥7) along faults within the YFP. Our results indicate that it takes between several hundred to several thousand years to accumulate sufficient strain energy for a M≥7 earthquake, with the greatest hazard posed by the Umtanum Ridge anticline.

  11. Academia Sinica, TW E-science to Assistant Seismic Observations for Earthquake Research, Monitor and Hazard Reduction Surrounding the South China Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Bor-Shouh; Liu, Chun-Chi; Yen, Eric; Liang, Wen-Tzong; Lin, Simon C.; Huang, Win-Gee; Lee, Shiann-Jong; Chen, Hsin-Yen

    Experience from the 1994 giant Sumatra earthquake, seismic and tsunami hazard have been considered as important issues in the South China Sea and its surrounding region, and attracted many seismologist's interesting. Currently, more than 25 broadband seismic instruments are currently operated by Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica in northern Vietnam to study the geodynamic evolution of the Red river fracture zone and rearranged to distribute to southern Vietnam recently to study the geodynamic evolution and its deep structures of the South China Sea. Similar stations are planned to deploy in Philippines in near future. In planning, some high quality stations may be as permanent stations and added continuous GPS observations, and instruments to be maintained and operated by several cooperation institutes, for instance, Institute of Geophysics, Vietnamese Acadamy of Sciences and Technology in Vietnam and Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology in Philippines. Finally, those stations will be planed to upgrade as real time transmission stations for earthquake monitoring and tsunami warning. However, high speed data transfer within different agencies is always a critical issue for successful network operation. By taking advantage of both EGEE and EUAsiaGrid e-Infrastructure, Academia Sinica Grid Computing Centre coordinates researchers from various Asian countries to construct a platform to high performance data transfer for huge parallel computation. Efforts from this data service and a newly build earthquake data centre for data management may greatly improve seismic network performance. Implementation of Grid infrastructure and e-science issues in this region may assistant development of earthquake research, monitor and natural hazard reduction. In the near future, we will search for new cooperation continually from the surrounding countries of the South China Sea to install new seismic stations to construct a complete seismic network of the

  12. ShakeMap Atlas 2.0: an improved suite of recent historical earthquake ShakeMaps for global hazard analyses and loss model calibration

    Garcia, D.; Mah, R.T.; Johnson, K.L.; Hearne, M.G.; Marano, K.D.; Lin, K.-W.; Wald, D.J.

    2012-01-01

    We introduce the second version of the U.S. Geological Survey ShakeMap Atlas, which is an openly-available compilation of nearly 8,000 ShakeMaps of the most significant global earthquakes between 1973 and 2011. This revision of the Atlas includes: (1) a new version of the ShakeMap software that improves data usage and uncertainty estimations; (2) an updated earthquake source catalogue that includes regional locations and finite fault models; (3) a refined strategy to select prediction and conversion equations based on a new seismotectonic regionalization scheme; and (4) vastly more macroseismic intensity and ground-motion data from regional agencies All these changes make the new Atlas a self-consistent, calibrated ShakeMap catalogue that constitutes an invaluable resource for investigating near-source strong ground-motion, as well as for seismic hazard, scenario, risk, and loss-model development. To this end, the Atlas will provide a hazard base layer for PAGER loss calibration and for the Earthquake Consequences Database within the Global Earthquake Model initiative.

  13. Seismic hazard along a crude oil pipeline in the event of an 1811-1812 type New Madrid earthquake. Technical report

    SciT

    Hwang, H.H.M.; Chen, C.H.S.

    1990-04-16

    An assessment of the seismic hazard that exists along the major crude oil pipeline running through the New Madrid seismic zone from southeastern Louisiana to Patoka, Illinois is examined in the report. An 1811-1812 type New Madrid earthquake with moment magnitude 8.2 is assumed to occur at three locations where large historical earthquakes have occurred. Six pipeline crossings of the major rivers in West Tennessee are chosen as the sites for hazard evaluation because of the liquefaction potential at these sites. A seismologically-based model is used to predict the bedrock accelerations. Uncertainties in three model parameters, i.e., stress parameter, cutoffmore » frequency, and strong-motion duration are included in the analysis. Each parameter is represented by three typical values. From the combination of these typical values, a total of 27 earthquake time histories can be generated for each selected site due to an 1811-1812 type New Madrid earthquake occurring at a postulated seismic source.« less

  14. Changes in population evacuation potential for tsunami hazards in Seward, Alaska, since the 1964 Good Friday earthquake

    Wood, Nathan J.; Schmidtlein, Mathew C.; Peters, Jeff

    2014-01-01

    Pedestrian evacuation modeling for tsunami hazards typically focuses on current land-cover conditions and population distributions. To examine how post-disaster redevelopment may influence the evacuation potential of at-risk populations to future threats, we modeled pedestrian travel times to safety in Seward, Alaska, based on conditions before the 1964 Good Friday earthquake and tsunami disaster and on modern conditions. Anisotropic, path distance modeling is conducted to estimate travel times to safety during the 1964 event and in modern Seward, and results are merged with various population data, including the location and number of residents, employees, public venues, and dependent care facilities. Results suggest that modeled travel time estimates conform well to the fatality patterns of the 1964 event and that evacuation travel times have increased in modern Seward due to the relocation and expansion of port and harbor facilities after the disaster. The majority of individuals threatened by tsunamis today in Seward are employee, customer, and tourist populations, rather than residents in their homes. Modern evacuation travel times to safety for the majority of the region are less than wave arrival times for future tectonic tsunamis but greater than arrival times for landslide-related tsunamis. Evacuation travel times will likely be higher in the winter time, when the presence of snow may constrain evacuations to roads.

  15. Seeking Information after the 2010 Haiti Earthquake: A Case Study in Mass-Fatality Management

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gupta, Kailash

    2013-01-01

    The 2010 earthquake in Haiti, which killed an estimated 316,000 people, offered many lessons in mass-fatality management (MFM). The dissertation defined MFM in seeking information and in recovery, preservation, identification, and disposition of human remains. Specifically, it examined how mass fatalities were managed in Haiti, how affected…

  16. Mitigating the consequences of future earthquakes in historical centres: what perspectives from the joined use of past information and geological-geophysical surveys?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terenzio Gizzi, Fabrizio; Moscatelli, Massimiliano; Potenza, Maria Rosaria; Zotta, Cinzia; Simionato, Maurizio; Pileggi, Domenico; Castenetto, Sergio

    2015-04-01

    To mitigate the damage effects of earthquakes in urban areas and particularly in historical centres prone to high seismic hazard is an important task to be pursued. As a matter of fact, seismic history throughout the world informs us that earthquakes have caused deep changes in the ancient urban conglomerations due to their high building vulnerability. Furthermore, some quarters can be exposed to an increase of seismic actions if compared with adjacent areas due to the geological and/or topographical features of the site on which the historical centres lie. Usually, the strategies aimed to estimate the local seismic hazard make only use of the geological-geophysical surveys. Thorough this approach we do not draw any lesson from what happened as a consequences of past earthquakes. With this in mind, we present the results of a joined use of historical data and traditional geological-geophysical approach to analyse the effects of possible future earthquakes in historical centres. The research activity discussed here is arranged into a joint collaboration between the Department of Civil Protection of the Presidency of Council of Ministers, the Institute of Environmental Geology and Geoengineering and the Institute of Archaeological and Monumental Heritage of the National (Italian) Research Council. In order to show the results, we discuss the preliminary achievements of the integrated study carried out on two historical towns located in Southern Apennines, a portion of the Italian peninsula exposed to high seismic hazard. Taking advantage from these two test sites, we also discuss some methodological implications that could be taken as a reference in the seismic microzonation studies.

  17. Real-Time Data Processing Systems and Products at the Alaska Earthquake Information Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruppert, N. A.; Hansen, R. A.

    2007-05-01

    The Alaska Earthquake Information Center (AEIC) receives data from over 400 seismic sites located within the state boundaries and the surrounding regions and serves as a regional data center. In 2007, the AEIC reported ~20,000 seismic events, with the largest event of M6.6 in Andreanof Islands. The real-time earthquake detection and data processing systems at AEIC are based on the Antelope system from BRTT, Inc. This modular and extensible processing platform allows an integrated system complete from data acquisition to catalog production. Multiple additional modules constructed with the Antelope toolbox have been developed to fit particular needs of the AEIC. The real-time earthquake locations and magnitudes are determined within 2-5 minutes of the event occurrence. AEIC maintains a 24/7 seismologist-on-duty schedule. Earthquake alarms are based on the real- time earthquake detections. Significant events are reviewed by the seismologist on duty within 30 minutes of the occurrence with information releases issued for significant events. This information is disseminated immediately via the AEIC website, ANSS website via QDDS submissions, through e-mail, cell phone and pager notifications, via fax broadcasts and recorded voice-mail messages. In addition, automatic regional moment tensors are determined for events with M>=4.0. This information is posted on the public website. ShakeMaps are being calculated in real-time with the information currently accessible via a password-protected website. AEIC is designing an alarm system targeted for the critical lifeline operations in Alaska. AEIC maintains an extensive computer network to provide adequate support for data processing and archival. For real-time processing, AEIC operates two identical, interoperable computer systems in parallel.

  18. The importance of earthquake-induced landslides to long-term slope erosion and slope-failure hazards in seismically active regions

    Keefer, D.K.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes a general method for determining the amount of earthquake-induced landsliding that occurs in a seismically active region over time; this determination can be used as a quantitative measure of the long-term hazard from seismically triggered landslides as well as a measure of the importance of this process to regional slope-erosion rates and landscape evolution. The method uses data from historical earthquakes to relate total volume of landslide material dislodged by an earthquake to the magnitude, M, and seismic moment, M0, of the earthquake. From worldwide data, a linear-regression relation between landslide volume, V, and M0 is determined as: V = M0/1018.9(?? 0.13), where V is measured in m3 and M0 is in dyn-cm. To determine the amount of earthquake-generated landsliding over time, this relation is combined with data on seismic-moment release for a particular region, which may be derived from either earthquake-history or fault-slip data. The form of the M0-V relation allows the rate of production of earthquake-induced landslides over time to be determined from total rate of seismic-moment release without regard to the distribution of individual events, thus simplifying and generalizing the determination. Application of the method to twelve seismically active regions, with areas ranging from 13,275 to 2,308,000 km2, shows that erosion rates from earthquake-induced landslides vary significantly from region to region. Of the regions studied, the highest rates were determined for the island of Hawaii, New Zealand, western New Guinea, and the San Francisco Bay region of California. Significantly lower rates were determined for Iran, Tibet, the Sierra Nevada-Great Basin region of California, and central Japan (for the time period from 715 AD to the present). Intermediate rates were determined for Peru, southern California, onshore California, Turkey, and central Japan (for the time period from 1586 AD to the present). To determine the relative, long

  19. The evaluation of the earthquake hazard using the exponential distribution method for different seismic source regions in and around Ağrı

    SciT

    Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: ybayrak@agri.edu.tr; Türker, Tuğba, E-mail: tturker@ktu.edu.tr

    The aim of this study; were determined of the earthquake hazard using the exponential distribution method for different seismic sources of the Ağrı and vicinity. A homogeneous earthquake catalog has been examined for 1900-2015 (the instrumental period) with 456 earthquake data for Ağrı and vicinity. Catalog; Bogazici University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (Burke), National Earthquake Monitoring Center (NEMC), TUBITAK, TURKNET the International Seismological Center (ISC), Seismological Research Institute (IRIS) has been created using different catalogs like. Ağrı and vicinity are divided into 7 different seismic source regions with epicenter distribution of formed earthquakes in the instrumental period, focalmore » mechanism solutions, and existing tectonic structures. In the study, the average magnitude value are calculated according to the specified magnitude ranges for 7 different seismic source region. According to the estimated calculations for 7 different seismic source regions, the biggest difference corresponding with the classes of determined magnitudes between observed and expected cumulative probabilities are determined. The recurrence period and earthquake occurrence number per year are estimated of occurring earthquakes in the Ağrı and vicinity. As a result, 7 different seismic source regions are determined occurrence probabilities of an earthquake 3.2 magnitude, Region 1 was greater than 6.7 magnitude, Region 2 was greater than than 4.7 magnitude, Region 3 was greater than 5.2 magnitude, Region 4 was greater than 6.2 magnitude, Region 5 was greater than 5.7 magnitude, Region 6 was greater than 7.2 magnitude, Region 7 was greater than 6.2 magnitude. The highest observed magnitude 7 different seismic source regions of Ağrı and vicinity are estimated 7 magnitude in Region 6. Region 6 are determined according to determining magnitudes, occurrence years of earthquakes in the future years, respectively, 7.2 magnitude

  20. The evaluation of the earthquake hazard using the exponential distribution method for different seismic source regions in and around Aǧrı

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bayrak, Yusuf; Türker, Tuǧba

    2016-04-01

    The aim of this study; were determined of the earthquake hazard using the exponential distribution method for different seismic sources of the Aǧrı and vicinity. A homogeneous earthquake catalog has been examined for 1900-2015 (the instrumental period) with 456 earthquake data for Aǧrı and vicinity. Catalog; Bogazici University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (Burke), National Earthquake Monitoring Center (NEMC), TUBITAK, TURKNET the International Seismological Center (ISC), Seismological Research Institute (IRIS) has been created using different catalogs like. Aǧrı and vicinity are divided into 7 different seismic source regions with epicenter distribution of formed earthquakes in the instrumental period, focal mechanism solutions, and existing tectonic structures. In the study, the average magnitude value are calculated according to the specified magnitude ranges for 7 different seismic source region. According to the estimated calculations for 7 different seismic source regions, the biggest difference corresponding with the classes of determined magnitudes between observed and expected cumulative probabilities are determined. The recurrence period and earthquake occurrence number per year are estimated of occurring earthquakes in the Aǧrı and vicinity. As a result, 7 different seismic source regions are determined occurrence probabilities of an earthquake 3.2 magnitude, Region 1 was greater than 6.7 magnitude, Region 2 was greater than than 4.7 magnitude, Region 3 was greater than 5.2 magnitude, Region 4 was greater than 6.2 magnitude, Region 5 was greater than 5.7 magnitude, Region 6 was greater than 7.2 magnitude, Region 7 was greater than 6.2 magnitude. The highest observed magnitude 7 different seismic source regions of Aǧrı and vicinity are estimated 7 magnitude in Region 6. Region 6 are determined according to determining magnitudes, occurrence years of earthquakes in the future years, respectively, 7.2 magnitude was in 158

  1. Collection and Dissemination of Volcanic Hazard Information for Emergency Managers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mouginis-Mark, P. J.; Horton, K. A.; Garbeil, H.

    2010-12-01

    At the companion AGU special session in 2000, we predicted a significant future increase in the use of volcanic hazard information by emergency managers, such as the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC). Improvements in digital elevation models for volcanoes, the understanding of plume eruption dynamics, lava flow emplacement, and dome growth would all contribute to more accurate estimations of the likely damage and area affected. Automated "event detection algorithms" based on remote monitoring sensors, and on more frequent high resolution satellite coverage, were expected to provide quantitative data that would be distributed to the disaster management community via user-interactive web pages tailored to their geographic region of interest and the on-going style of volcanism. This year's activity at Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull volcano highlighted the need for a wide diversity of remote sensing capabilities around the world. It became clear that airline officials and trans-Atlantic flyers required detailed regional information that was often unavailable from the suite of orbital sensors. Contrast this with the wealth of orbital data, from more than a dozen different spacecraft, that was collected daily over the Gulf Oil Spill in mid-2010, and used for near real-time deployment of ships and coastal crews dealing with the event. So what has limited the use of remote sensing data for volcano hazard assessment? There have been some remote sensing successes. The on-going eruption of Halema'uma'u has prompted the development of an array of FLYSPEC SO2 measurement instruments that will be deployed downwind of the vent in order to provide better monitoring and prediction of hazardous conditions for the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory and the Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. This array will provide high resolution, real-time measurement of SO2 flux from the vent during the daylight hours. However, this is a ground-based capability, rather than orbital. One of the inhibitors to

  2. Information for Exporters of Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Hazardous Waste

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Information for exporters of hazardous waste to OECD countries for recycling who are subject to the hazardous waste generator and importer requirements described in 40 CFR Part 262 Subpart H, under RCRA

  3. Information for Importers and Receiving Facilities of Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Hazardous Waste

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Information for importers of hazardous waste from Canada, Chile, Mexico, or non-OECD countries who are subject to the hazardous waste generator and importer requirements described in 40 CFR Part 262 Subpart A – D and F, under RCRA

  4. Prototype operational earthquake prediction system

    Spall, Henry

    1986-01-01

    An objective if the U.S. Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 is to introduce into all regions of the country that are subject to large and moderate earthquakes, systems for predicting earthquakes and assessing earthquake risk. In 1985, the USGS developed for the Secretary of the Interior a program for implementation of a prototype operational earthquake prediction system in southern California.

  5. Report for explosion and earthquake data acquired in the 1999 Seismic Hazards Investigation of Puget Sound (SHIPS), Washington

    Brocher, Thomas M.; Pratt, Thomas L.; Miller, Kate C.; Tréhu, Anne M.; Snelson, Catherine M.; Weaver, Craig S.; Creager, Ken C.; Crosson, Robert S.; ten Brink, Uri S.; Alvarez, Marcos G.; Harder, Steven H.; Asudeh, Isa

    2000-01-01

    This report describes the acquisition, processing, and quality of seismic reflection and refraction data obtained in the Seattle basin, central Puget Lowland, western Washington, in September 1999 during the Seismic Hazards Investigation of Puget Sound (SHIPS). As a sequel to the 1998 SHIPS air gun experiment (also known as 'Wet SHIPS'), the 1999 experiment, nicknamed 'Dry SHIPS,' acquired a 112-km-long east-west trending multichannel seismic reflection and refraction line in the Seattle basin. One thousand and eight seismographs were deployed at a nominal spacing of 100 meters, and 29 shot points were detonated at approximately 4 km intervals along the seismic line. The wide-angle seismic profile was designed to (1) determine the E-W geometry of Seattle basin, (2) measure the seismic velocities within the basin, and (3) define the basement structure underlying the Seattle basin. In this report, we describe the acquisition of these data, discuss the processing and merging of the data into common shot gathers, and illustrate the acquired profiles. We also describe the format and content of the archival tapes containing the SEGY-formatted, common-shot gathers. Data quality is variable, but useful data were acquired from all 29 shot points fired along the Dry SHIPS seismic line. The data show pronounced travel time delays associated with the low velocity sedimentary rocks filling the Seattle basin. Thirty-five REFTEK stations, deployed at 4 km intervals along the Dry SHIPS line, recorded 26 regional earthquakes and blasts and 17 teleseismic events, including the main shock and several aftershocks of the Mw=7.6 Chi-Chi (Taiwan) earthquake of 9/20/1999. The teleseismic recordings of the Chi-Chi (Taiwan) mainshock provide useful signals down to 10 second periods. They document a significant (factor between 5 and 10) focusing of compressional- and shear-wave energy by the Seattle basin at periods between 1 and 2 seconds relative to 'bedrock' sites east and west of the

  6. Great Earthquakes and Tsunami Day for Teachers on the Leading Edge: Geologic Hazards and Links to EarthScope in a Field-Based Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butler, R.; Bishop, E. M.; Ault, C.; Magura, B.; Hedeen, C.; Connor, D.; Southworth-Neumeyer, T.; Conrey, R.

    2005-12-01

    Inviting K-12 science teachers into the field to observe the work of professional geologists and engage in learning that is scientifically important and socially relevant deepens their geologic understanding while instilling enthusiasm for inquiry-based instruction. "Teachers on the Leading Edge" (TOTLE) is a field-based and place-based teacher development program that features active continental margin geology of the Pacific Northwest. Program themes include: (1) Geophysics as fundamental to understanding plate tectonics and essential to deciphering Pacific Northwest geology that underlies a tree-covered landscape; and (2) Geologic Hazards as understandable and inevitable consequences of living on the leading edge of our continent. The two-week TOTLE 2005 field workshop traversed the active continental margin of Oregon from the Pacific Coast through the Cascade Range to accreted terranes along the Snake River. "Great Earthquakes and Tsunami Day" featured introductions to earthquake seismology and paleoseismology. Presentations on earthquake seismology with examples from the December 2004 Sumatra - Andaman earthquake and Indian Ocean tsunami provided context and background. During a morning low tide near Fort Clatsop south of Astoria, paleoseismologist Brian Atwater (USGS, Seattle) helped teachers observe and interpret drowned forests and tsunami deposits that mark four great Cascadia earthquakes of the past 2000 years. That afternoon, Darci Connor, former Tsunami Outreach Coordinator for the City of Seaside, helped teachers understand their critical role in educating K-12 students about natural hazard preparedness. In the evening, TOTLE teachers crafted their new understanding of great earthquakes and tsunami into interactive learning activities for Science Campers at Camp Kiwanilong operated by the Oregon Museum of Science and Industry. These experiences make frontier geophysical research, like GPS observations of slow earthquakes and seismic tomography of the

  7. A comparative study on the Earthquake Information Management Systems (EIMS) in India, Afghanistan and Iran.

    PubMed

    Ajami, Sima

    2012-01-01

    Damages and loss of life sustained during an earthquake results from falling structures and flying glass and objects. To address these and other problems, new information technology and systems as a means can improve crisis management and crisis response. The most important factor for managing the crisis depends on our readiness before disasters by useful data. This study aimed to determine the Earthquake Information Management System (EIMS) in India, Afghanistan and Iran, and describe how we can reduce destruction by EIMS in crisis management. This study was an analytical comparison in which data were collected by questionnaire, observation and checklist. The population was EIMS in selected countries. Sources of information were staff in related organizations, scientific documentations and Internet. For data analysis, Criteria Rating Technique, Delphi Technique and descriptive methods were used. Findings showed that EIMS in India (Disaster Information Management System), Afghanistan (Management Information for Natural Disasters) and Iran are decentralized. The Indian state has organized an expert group to inspect issues about disaster decreasing strategy. In Iran, there was no useful and efficient EIMS to evaluate earthquake information. According to outcomes, it is clear that an information system can only influence decisions if it is relevant, reliable and available for the decision-makers in a timely fashion. Therefore, it is necessary to reform and design a model. The model contains responsible organizations and their functions.

  8. A comparative study on the Earthquake Information Management Systems (EIMS) in India, Afghanistan and Iran

    PubMed Central

    Ajami, Sima

    2012-01-01

    Context: Damages and loss of life sustained during an earthquake results from falling structures and flying glass and objects. To address these and other problems, new information technology and systems as a means can improve crisis management and crisis response. The most important factor for managing the crisis depends on our readiness before disasters by useful data. Aims: This study aimed to determine the Earthquake Information Management System (EIMS) in India, Afghanistan and Iran, and describe how we can reduce destruction by EIMS in crisis management. Materials and Methods: This study was an analytical comparison in which data were collected by questionnaire, observation and checklist. The population was EIMS in selected countries. Sources of information were staff in related organizations, scientific documentations and Internet. For data analysis, Criteria Rating Technique, Delphi Technique and descriptive methods were used. Results: Findings showed that EIMS in India (Disaster Information Management System), Afghanistan (Management Information for Natural Disasters) and Iran are decentralized. The Indian state has organized an expert group to inspect issues about disaster decreasing strategy. In Iran, there was no useful and efficient EIMS to evaluate earthquake information. Conclusions: According to outcomes, it is clear that an information system can only influence decisions if it is relevant, reliable and available for the decision-makers in a timely fashion. Therefore, it is necessary to reform and design a model. The model contains responsible organizations and their functions. PMID:23555130

  9. A new approach to geographic partitioning of probabilistic seismic hazard using seismic source distance with earthquake extreme and perceptibility statistics: an application to the southern Balkan region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bayliss, T. J.

    2016-02-01

    The southeastern European cities of Sofia and Thessaloniki are explored as example site-specific scenarios by geographically zoning their individual localized seismic sources based on the highest probabilities of magnitude exceedance. This is with the aim of determining the major components contributing to each city's seismic hazard. Discrete contributions from the selected input earthquake catalogue are investigated to determine those areas that dominate each city's prevailing seismic hazard with respect to magnitude and source-to-site distance. This work is based on an earthquake catalogue developed and described in a previously published paper by the author and components of a magnitude probability density function. Binned magnitude and distance classes are defined using a joint magnitude-distance distribution. The prevailing seismicity to each city-as defined by a child data set extracted from the parent earthquake catalogue for each city considered-is divided into distinct constrained data bins of small discrete magnitude and source-to-site distance intervals. These are then used to describe seismic hazard in terms of uni-variate modal values; that is, M* and D* which are the modal magnitude and modal source-to-site distance in each city's local historical seismicity. This work highlights that Sofia's dominating seismic hazard-that is, the modal magnitudes possessing the highest probabilities of occurrence-is located in zones confined to two regions at 60-80 km and 170-180 km from this city, for magnitude intervals of 5.75-6.00 Mw and 6.00-6.25 Mw respectively. Similarly, Thessaloniki appears prone to highest levels of hazard over a wider epicentral distance interval, from 80 to 200 km in the moment magnitude range 6.00-6.25 Mw.

  10. Slip on the San Andreas fault at Parkfield, California, over two earthquake cycles, and the implications for seismic hazard

    Murray, J.; Langbein, J.

    2006-01-01

    Parkfield, California, which experienced M 6.0 earthquakes in 1934, 1966, and 2004, is one of the few locales for which geodetic observations span multiple earthquake cycles. We undertake a comprehensive study of deformation over the most recent earthquake cycle and explore the results in the context of geodetic data collected prior to the 1966 event. Through joint inversion of the variety of Parkfield geodetic measurements (trilateration, two-color laser, and Global Positioning System), including previously unpublished two-color data, we estimate the spatial distribution of slip and slip rate along the San Andreas using a fault geometry based on precisely relocated seismicity. Although the three most recent Parkfield earthquakes appear complementary in their along-strike distributions of slip, they do not produce uniform strain release along strike over multiple seismic cycles. Since the 1934 earthquake, more than 1 m of slip deficit has accumulated on portions of the fault that slipped in the 1966 and 2004 earthquakes, and an average of 2 m of slip deficit exists on the 33 km of the fault southeast of Gold Hill to be released in a future, perhaps larger, earthquake. It appears that the fault is capable of partially releasing stored strain in moderate earthquakes, maintaining a disequilibrium through multiple earthquake cycles. This complicates the application of simple earthquake recurrence models that assume only the strain accumulated since the most recent event is relevant to the size or timing of an upcoming earthquake. Our findings further emphasize that accumulated slip deficit is not sufficient for earthquake nucleation.

  11. Impact of the viscoelastic postseismic deformation following megathrust earthquake on seismic hazard in subduction zones : the case of the Maule and Illapel earthquakes in Chile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klein, Emilie; Vigny, Christophe; Fleitout, Luce; Garaud, Jean-Didier

    2016-04-01

    On 16th September 2015, the Mw8,3 Illapel earthquake occurred in the region of Coquimbo, Central Chile. In this area, similar size (Mw 8+) megathrust earthquakes had occurred in 1943 and 1880 and GPS measurements conducted over the last 15 years revealed an apparent coupling of more than 60 %. Therefore, this segment seems to be a clear application of the seismic gap theory with recurrent earthquakes of similar size. However, the precise timing and extension of the 2015 rupture are quite unsettling : it occurred about 6 years after the Maule Mw 8,8 earthquake, why not sooner ? Also, it did not connect to the 2010 rupture area, leaving an even more coupled 200km-long section unbroken in front of Valparaiso. The analysis of 5 years of GPS data following the 2010 event highlights a propagation of the postseismic deformation at very large scale, that we attributed mostly to viscoelastic relaxation in the asthenosphere and in a low viscosity channel along the slab. Orientated trenchward in the Maule rupture zone, the postseismic displacements are rotating northward at the edge of the 2010 rupture, reaching a Northeastern direction in the Coquimbo region. There, we observe an increase of about 10 % of the horizontal surface velocity, roughly aligned with the pre-seismic direction. Between these two sections of the subduction (Maule where strain is highly decreased by post-seismic relaxation and Illapel where strain is increased) lies the Valparaiso section. The latitude where strain starts to increase significantly is located at 32°S (Los Vilos), approximately where the 2015 rupture started. In this study, we take advantage of the very dense GPS data sets to quantify precisely the stress transfer due to viscous relaxation using 3D FE models. We show that the amplitude and orientation of the postseismic deformation in the Valparaiso area contributes to release strain in the upper plate, when on the contrary, it induces a significant stress increase of about 0,3 bar

  12. U.S. Tsunami Information technology (TIM) Modernization: Performance Assessment of Tsunamigenic Earthquake Discrimination System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hagerty, M. T.; Lomax, A.; Hellman, S. B.; Whitmore, P.; Weinstein, S.; Hirshorn, B. F.; Knight, W. R.

    2015-12-01

    Tsunami warning centers must rapidly decide whether an earthquake is likely to generate a destructive tsunami in order to issue a tsunami warning quickly after a large event. For very large events (Mw > 8 or so), magnitude and location alone are sufficient to warrant an alert. However, for events of smaller magnitude (e.g., Mw ~ 7.5), particularly for so-called "tsunami earthquakes", magnitude alone is insufficient to issue an alert and other measurements must be rapidly made and used to assess tsunamigenic potential. The Tsunami Information technology Modernization (TIM) is a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) project to update and standardize the earthquake and tsunami monitoring systems currently employed at the U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers in Ewa Beach, Hawaii (PTWC) and Palmer, Alaska (NTWC). We (ISTI) are responsible for implementing the seismic monitoring components in this new system, including real-time seismic data collection and seismic processing. The seismic data processor includes a variety of methods aimed at real-time discrimination of tsunamigenic events, including: Mwp, Me, slowness (Theta), W-phase, mantle magnitude (Mm), array processing and finite-fault inversion. In addition, it contains the ability to designate earthquake scenarios and play the resulting synthetic seismograms through the processing system. Thus, it is also a convenient tool that integrates research and monitoring and may be used to calibrate and tune the real-time monitoring system. Here we show results of the automated processing system for a large dataset of subduction zone earthquakes containing recent tsunami earthquakes and we examine the accuracy of the various discrimation methods and discuss issues related to their successful real-time application.

  13. Coulomb Stress Change and Seismic Hazard of Rift Zones in Southern Tibet after the 2015 Mw7.8 Nepal Earthquake and Its Mw7.3 Aftershock

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, Z.; Zha, X.; Lu, Z.

    2015-12-01

    In southern Tibet (30~34N, 80~95E), many north-trending rifts, such as Yadong-Gulu and Lunggar rifts, are characterized by internally drained graben or half-graben basins bounded by active normal faults. Some developed rifts have become a portion of important transportation lines in Tibet, China. Since 1976, eighty-seven >Mw5.0 earthquakes have happened in the rift regions, and fifty-five events have normal faulting focal mechanisms according to the GCMT catalog. These rifts and normal faults are associated with both the EW-trending extension of the southern Tibet and the convergence between Indian and Tibet. The 2015 Mw7.8 Nepal great earthquake and its Mw7.3 aftershock occurred at the main Himalayan Thrust zone and caused tremendous damages in Kathmandu region. Those earthquakes will lead to significant viscoelastic deformation and stress changes in the southern Tibet in the future. To evaluate the seismic hazard in the active rift regions in southern Tibet, we modeled the slip distribution of the 2015 Nepal great earthquakes using the InSAR displacement field from the ALOS-2 satellite SAR data, and calculated the Coulomb failure stress (CFS) on these active normal faults in the rift zones. Because the estimated CFS depends on the geometrical parameters of receiver faults, it is necessary to get the accurate fault parameters in the rift zones. Some historical earthquakes have been studied using the field data, teleseismic data and InSAR observations, but results are in not agreement with each other. In this study, we revaluated the geometrical parameters of seismogenic faults occurred in the rift zones using some high-quality coseismic InSAR observations and teleseismic body-wave data. Finally, we will evaluate the seismic hazard in the rift zones according to the value of the estimated CFS and aftershock distribution.

  14. Evaluation of the real-time earthquake information system in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakamura, Hiromitsu; Horiuchi, Shigeki; Wu, Changjiang; Yamamoto, Shunroku; Rydelek, Paul A.

    2009-01-01

    The real-time earthquake information system (REIS) of the Japanese seismic network is developed for automatically determining earthquake parameters within a few seconds after the P-waves arrive at the closest stations using both the P-wave arrival times and the timing data that P-waves have not yet arrived at other stations. REIS results play a fundamental role in the real-time information for earthquake early warning in Japan. We show the rapidity and accuracy of REIS from the analysis of 4,050 earthquakes in three years since 2005; 44 percent of the first reports are issued within 5 seconds after the first P-wave arrival and 80 percent of the events have a difference in epicenter distance less than 20 km relative to manually determined locations. We compared the formal catalog to the estimated magnitude from the real-time analysis and found that 94 percent of the events had a magnitude difference of +/-1.0 unit.

  15. 78 FR 24439 - Compliance With Information Request, Flooding Hazard Reevaluation

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-04-25

    ... to have exceeded 14 meters (45 feet) in height that inundated the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power... earthquake occurred, Fukushima Dai-ichi Units 1, 2, and 3, were in operation and Units 4, 5, and 6, were shut... at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant, the NRC established a senior-level agency task force...

  16. Earthquake prediction: the interaction of public policy and science.

    PubMed Central

    Jones, L M

    1996-01-01

    Earthquake prediction research has searched for both informational phenomena, those that provide information about earthquake hazards useful to the public, and causal phenomena, causally related to the physical processes governing failure on a fault, to improve our understanding of those processes. Neither informational nor causal phenomena are a subset of the other. I propose a classification of potential earthquake predictors of informational, causal, and predictive phenomena, where predictors are causal phenomena that provide more accurate assessments of the earthquake hazard than can be gotten from assuming a random distribution. Achieving higher, more accurate probabilities than a random distribution requires much more information about the precursor than just that it is causally related to the earthquake. PMID:11607656

  17. Assessment of tsunami hazard to the U.S. East Coast using relationships between submarine landslides and earthquakes

    ten Brink, Uri S.; Lee, H.J.; Geist, E.L.; Twichell, D.

    2009-01-01

    Submarine landslides along the continental slope of the U.S. Atlantic margin are potential sources for tsunamis along the U.S. East coast. The magnitude of potential tsunamis depends on the volume and location of the landslides, and tsunami frequency depends on their recurrence interval. However, the size and recurrence interval of submarine landslides along the U.S. Atlantic margin is poorly known. Well-studied landslide-generated tsunamis in other parts of the world have been shown to be associated with earthquakes. Because the size distribution and recurrence interval of earthquakes is generally better known than those for submarine landslides, we propose here to estimate the size and recurrence interval of submarine landslides from the size and recurrence interval of earthquakes in the near vicinity of the said landslides. To do so, we calculate maximum expected landslide size for a given earthquake magnitude, use recurrence interval of earthquakes to estimate recurrence interval of landslide, and assume a threshold landslide size that can generate a destructive tsunami. The maximum expected landslide size for a given earthquake magnitude is calculated in 3 ways: by slope stability analysis for catastrophic slope failure on the Atlantic continental margin, by using land-based compilation of maximum observed distance from earthquake to liquefaction, and by using land-based compilation of maximum observed area of earthquake-induced landslides. We find that the calculated distances and failure areas from the slope stability analysis is similar or slightly smaller than the maximum triggering distances and failure areas in subaerial observations. The results from all three methods compare well with the slope failure observations of the Mw = 7.2, 1929 Grand Banks earthquake, the only historical tsunamigenic earthquake along the North American Atlantic margin. The results further suggest that a Mw = 7.5 earthquake (the largest expected earthquake in the eastern U

  18. Earthquakes in Arkansas and vicinity 1699-2010

    Dart, Richard L.; Ausbrooks, Scott M.

    2011-01-01

    This map summarizes approximately 300 years of earthquake activity in Arkansas. It is one in a series of similar State earthquake history maps. Work on the Arkansas map was done in collaboration with the Arkansas Geological Survey. The earthquake data plotted on the map are from several sources: the Arkansas Geological Survey, the Center for Earthquake Research and Information, the National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research, and the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality. In addition to earthquake locations, other materials presented include seismic hazard and isoseismal maps and related text. Earthquakes are a legitimate concern in Arkansas and parts of adjacent states. Arkansas has undergone a number of significant felt earthquakes since 1811. At least two of these events caused property damage: a magnitude 4.7 earthquake in 1931, and a magnitude 4.3 earthquake in 1967. The map shows all historical and instrumentally located earthquakes in Arkansas and vicinity between 1811 and 2010. The largest historic earthquake in the vicinity of the State was an intensity XI event, on December 16, 1811; the first earthquake in the New Madrid sequence. This violent event and the earthquakes that followed caused considerable damage to the then sparsely settled region.

  19. 77 FR 65574 - Notice of Proposed Information Collection: Healthy Homes and Lead Hazard Control Programs Data...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-10-29

    ... Information Collection: Healthy Homes and Lead Hazard Control Programs Data Collection--Progress Reporting AGENCY: Office of Healthy Homes and Lead Hazard Control, HUD. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The revised... of Healthy Homes and Lead Hazard Control, Department of Housing and Urban Development, 451 7th Street...

  20. 78 FR 8699 - Pipeline Safety: Information Collection Activities, Revision to Annual Report for Hazardous...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-02-06

    ... returning it to you via the U.S. mail. Please note that due to delays in the delivery of U.S. mail to... hazardous liquid pipeline industry. B. Proposed Changes to the Annual Report for Hazardous Liquid Pipeline... of the regulated hazardous liquid pipeline industry already collects this information on a by- state...

  1. 76 FR 70408 - Information Collection; Understanding Value Trade-Offs Regarding Fire Hazard Reduction Programs...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-11-14

    ... Regarding Fire Hazard Reduction Programs in the Wildland-Urban Interface AGENCY: Forest Service, USDA... Regarding Fire Hazard Reduction Programs in the Wildland-Urban Interface. DATES: Comments must be received... holidays. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Title: Understanding Value Trade-offs Regarding Fire Hazard Reduction...

  2. National Earthquake Information Center systems overview and integration

    Guy, Michelle R.; Patton, John M.; Fee, Jeremy; Hearne, Mike; Martinez, Eric; Ketchum, D.; Worden, Charles; Quitoriano, Vince; Hunter, Edward; Smoczyk, Gregory; Schwarz, Stan

    2015-08-18

    It is important to note that this document provides a brief introduction to the work of dozens of software developers and IT specialists, spanning in many cases more than a decade. References to significant amounts of supporting documentation, code, and information are supplied within.

  3. Geophysical setting of the 2000 ML 5.2 Yountville, California, earthquake: Implications for seismic Hazard in Napa Valley, California

    Langenheim, V.E.; Graymer, R.W.; Jachens, R.C.

    2006-01-01

    The epicenter of the 2000 ML 5.2 Yountville earthquake was located 5 km west of the surface trace of the West Napa fault, as defined by Helley and Herd (1977). On the basis of the re-examination of geologic data and the analysis of potential field data, the earthquake occurred on a strand of the West Napa fault, the main basin-bounding fault along the west side of Napa Valley. Linear aeromagnetic anomalies and a prominent gravity gradient extend the length of the fault to the latitude of Calistoga, suggesting that this fault may be capable of larger-magnitude earthquakes. Gravity data indicate an ???2-km-deep basin centered on the town of Napa, where damage was concentrated during the Yountville earthquake. It most likely played a minor role in enhancing shaking during this event but may lead to enhanced shaking caused by wave trapping during a larger-magnitude earthquake.

  4. Using JavaScript and the FDSN web service to create an interactive earthquake information system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Kasper D.

    2015-04-01

    The FDSN web service provides a web interface to access earthquake meta-data (e. g. event or station information) and waveform date over the internet. Requests are send to a server as URLs and the output is either XML or miniSEED. This makes it hard to read by humans but easy to process with different software. Different data centers are already supporting the FDSN web service, e. g. USGS, IRIS, ORFEUS. The FDSN web service is also part of the Seiscomp3 (http://www.seiscomp3.org) software. The Seismological Observatory of the Ruhr-University switched to Seiscomp3 as the standard software for the analysis of mining induced earthquakes at the beginning of 2014. This made it necessary to create a new web-based earthquake information service for the publication of results to the general public. This has be done by processing the output of a FDSN web service query by javascript running in a standard browser. The result is an interactive map presenting the observed events and further information of events and stations on a single web page as a table and on a map. In addition the user can download event information, waveform data and station data in different formats like miniSEED, quakeML or FDSNxml. The developed code and all used libraries are open source and freely available.

  5. Volunteered Geographic Information for Disaster Management with Application to Earthquake Disaster Databank & Sharing Platform

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, H.; Zhang, W. C.; Deng, C.; Nie, N.; Yi, L.

    2017-02-01

    All phases of disaster management require up-to-date and accurate information. Different in-situ and remote sensor systems help to monitor dynamic properties such as air quality, water level or inundated areas. The rapid emergence of web-based services has facilitated the collection, dissemination, and cartographic representation of spatial information from the public, giving rise to the idea of using Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) to aid disaster management. In this study, with a brief review on the concept and the development of disaster management, opportunities and challenges for applying VGI in disaster management were explored. The challenges, including Data availability, Data quality, Data management and Legal issues of using VGI for disaster management, were discussed in detail with particular emphasis on the actual needs of disaster management practice in China. Three different approaches to assure VGI data quality, namely the classification and authority design of volunteers, a government-led VGI data acquisition framework for disaster management and a quality assessment system for VGI, respectively, were presented and discussed. As a case study, a prototype of VGI oriented earthquake disaster databank & sharing platform, an open WebGIS system for volunteers and other interested individuals collaboratively create and manage the earthquake disaster related information, was proposed, to provide references for improving the level of earthquake emergency response and disaster mitigation in China.

  6. Guide to Geologic Hazards in Alaska | Alaska Division of Geological &

    content Guide to Geologic Hazards in Alaska Glossary Coastal and river hazards image Coastal and river Storm surge Tsunami Earthquake related hazards image Earthquake related hazards Earthquake Earthquake Subsidence Surface fault rupture Tsunami Uplift Glacier hazards image Glacier hazards Avalanche Debris flow

  7. Earthquake Education and Public Information Centers: A Collaboration Between the Earthquake Country Alliance and Free-Choice Learning Institutions in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Degroot, R. M.; Springer, K.; Brooks, C. J.; Schuman, L.; Dalton, D.; Benthien, M. L.

    2009-12-01

    In 1999 the Southern California Earthquake Center initiated an effort to expand its reach to multiple target audiences through the development of an interpretive trail on the San Andreas fault at Wallace Creek and an earthquake exhibit at Fingerprints Youth Museum in Hemet. These projects and involvement with the San Bernardino County Museum in Redlands beginning in 2007 led to the creation of Earthquake Education and Public Information Centers (EPIcenters) in 2008. The impetus for the development of the network was to broaden participation in The Great Southern California ShakeOut. In 2009 it has grown to be more comprehensive in its scope including its evolution into a statewide network. EPIcenters constitute a variety of free-choice learning institutions, representing museums, science centers, libraries, universities, parks, and other places visited by a variety of audiences including families, seniors, and school groups. They share a commitment to demonstrating and encouraging earthquake preparedness. EPIcenters coordinate Earthquake Country Alliance activities in their county or region, lead presentations or organize events in their communities, or in other ways demonstrate leadership in earthquake education and risk reduction. The San Bernardino County Museum (Southern California) and The Tech Museum of Innovation (Northern California) serve as EPIcenter regional coordinating institutions. They interact with over thirty institutional partners who have implemented a variety of activities from displays and talks to earthquake exhibitions. While many activities are focused on the time leading up to and just after the ShakeOut, most EPIcenter members conduct activities year round. Network members at Kidspace Museum in Pasadena and San Diego Natural History Museum have formed EPIcenter focus groups on early childhood education and safety and security. This presentation highlights the development of the EPIcenter network, synergistic activities resulting from this

  8. Quantify landslide exposure in areas with limited hazard information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pellicani, R.; Spilotro, G.; Van Westen, C. J.

    2012-04-01

    In Daunia region, located in the North-western part of Apulia (Southern Italy), landslides are the main source of damage to properties in the urban centers of the area, involving especially transportation system and the foundation stability of buildings. In the last 50 years, the growing demand for physical development of these unstable minor hillside and mountain centers has produced a very rapid expansion of built-up areas, often with poor planning of urban and territorial infrastructures, and invasion of the agricultural soil. Because of the expansion of the built-up towards not safe areas, human activities such as deforestation or excavation of slopes for road cuts and building sites, etc., have become important triggers for landslide occurrence. In the study area, the probability of occurrence of landslides is very difficult to predict, as well as the expected magnitude of events, due to the limited data availability on past landslide activity. Because the main limitations concern the availability of temporal data on landslides and triggering events (frequency), run-out distance and landslide magnitude, it was not possible to produce a reliable landslide hazard map and, consequently, a risk map. Given these limitations in data availability and details, a qualitative exposure map has been produced and combined with a landslide susceptibility map, both generated using a spatial multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE) procedure in a GIS system, for obtaining the qualitative landslide risk map. The qualitative analysis has been provided the spatial distribution of the exposure level in the study area; this information could be used in a preliminary stage of regional planning. In order to have a better definition of the risk level in the Daunia territory, the quantification of the economic losses at municipal level was carried out. For transforming these information on economic consequences into landslide risk quantification, it was necessary to assume the temporal

  9. The Benefits and Limitations of Crowdsourced Information for Rapid Damage Assessment of Global Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bossu, R.; Landès, M.; Roussel, F.

    2017-12-01

    The Internet has fastened the collection of felt reports and macroseismic data after global earthquakes. At the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC), where the traditional online questionnaires have been replace by thumbnail-based questionnaires, an average of half of the reports are collected within 10 minutes of an earthquake's occurrence. In regions where EMSC is well identified this goes down to 5 min. The user simply specifies the thumbnail corresponding to observed effects erasing languages barriers and improving collection via small smartphone screens. A previous study has shown that EMSC data is well correlated with "Did You Feel It" (DYFI) data and 3 independent, manually collected datasets. The efficiency and rapidity of felt report collection through thumbnail-based questionnaires does not necessarily mean that they offer a complete picture of the situation for all intensities values, especially the higher ones. There are several potential limitations. Demographics probably play a role but so might eyewitnesses' behaviors: it is probably not their priority to report when their own safety and that of their loved ones is at stake. We propose to test this hypothesis on EMSC felt reports and to extend the study to LastQuake smartphone application uses. LastQuake is a free smartphone app providing very rapid information on felt earthquakes. There are currently 210 000 active users around the world covering almost every country except for a few ones in Sub-Saharan Africa. Along with felt reports we also analyze the characteristics of LastQuake app launches. For both composite datasets created from 108 earthquakes, we analyze the rapidity of eyewitnesses' reaction and how it changes with intensity values and surmise how they reflect different types of behaviors. We will show the intrinsic limitations of crowdsourced information for rapid situation awareness. More importantly, we will show in which cases the lack of crowdsourced information could

  10. Earthquake-by-earthquake fold growth above the Puente Hills blind thrust fault, Los Angeles, California: Implications for fold kinematics and seismic hazard

    Leon, L.A.; Christofferson, S.A.; Dolan, J.F.; Shaw, J.H.; Pratt, T.L.

    2007-01-01

    Boreholes and high-resolution seismic reflection data collected across the forelimb growth triangle above the central segment of the Puente Hills thrust fault (PHT) beneath Los Angeles, California, provide a detailed record of incremental fold growth during large earthquakes on this major blind thrust fault. These data document fold growth within a discrete kink band that narrows upward from ???460 m at the base of the Quaternary section (200-250 m depth) to 82% at 250 m depth) folding and uplift occur within discrete kink bands, thereby enabling us to develop a paleoseismic history of the underlying blind thrust fault. The borehole data reveal that the youngest part of the growth triangle in the uppermost 20 m comprises three stratigraphically discrete growth intervals marked by southward thickening sedimentary strata that are separated by intervals in which sediments do not change thickness across the site. We interpret the intervals of growth as occurring after the formation of now-buried paleofold scarps during three large PHT earthquakes in the past 8 kyr. The intervening intervals of no growth record periods of structural quiescence and deposition at the regional, near-horizontal stream gradient at the study site. Minimum uplift in each of the scarp-forming events, which occurred at 0.2-2.2 ka (event Y), 3.0-6.3 ka (event X), and 6.6-8.1 ka (event W), ranged from ???1.1 to ???1.6 m, indicating minimum thrust displacements of ???2.5 to 4.5 m. Such large displacements are consistent with the occurrence of large-magnitude earthquakes (Mw > 7). Cumulative, minimum uplift in the past three events was 3.3 to 4.7 m, suggesting cumulative thrust displacement of ???7 to 10.5 m. These values yield a minimum Holocene slip rate for the PHT of ???0.9 to 1.6 mm/yr. The borehole and seismic reflection data demonstrate that dip within the kink band is acquired incrementally, such that older strata that have been deformed by more earthquakes dip more steeply than younger

  11. Comparison of Structurally Controlled Landslide Hazard Simulation to the Co-seismic Landslides Caused by the M 7.2 2013 Bohol Earthquake.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galang, J. A. M. B.; Eco, R. C.; Lagmay, A. M. A.

    2014-12-01

    The M_w 7.2 October 15, 2013 Bohol earthquake is one of the more destructive earthquake to hit the Philippines in the 21st century. The epicenter was located in Sagbayan municipality, central Bohol and was generated by a previously unmapped reverse fault called the "Inabanga Fault". The earthquake resulted in 209 fatalities and over 57 million USD worth of damages. The earthquake generated co-seismic landslides most of which were related to fault structures. Unlike rainfall induced landslides, the trigger for co-seismic landslides happen without warning. Preparations for this type of landslides rely heavily on the identification of fracture-related slope instability. To mitigate the impacts of co-seismic landslide hazards, morpho-structural orientations of discontinuity sets were mapped using remote sensing techniques with the aid of a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) obtained in 2012. The DTM used is an IFSAR derived image with a 5-meter pixel resolution and approximately 0.5 meter vertical accuracy. Coltop 3D software was then used to identify similar structures including measurement of their dip and dip directions. The chosen discontinuity sets were then keyed into Matterocking software to identify potential rock slide zones due to planar or wedged discontinuities. After identifying the structurally-controlled unstable slopes, the rock mass propagation extent of the possible rock slides was simulated using Conefall. Separately, a manually derived landslide inventory has been performed using post-earthquake satellite images and LIDAR. The results were compared to the landslide inventory which identified at least 873 landslides. Out of the 873 landslides identified through the inventory, 786 or 90% intersect the simulated structural-controlled landslide hazard areas of Bohol. The results show the potential of this method to identify co-seismic landslide hazard areas for disaster mitigation. Along with computer methods to simulate shallow landslides, and debris flow

  12. Twitter as Information Source for Rapid Damage Estimation after Major Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eggert, Silke; Fohringer, Joachim

    2014-05-01

    Natural disasters like earthquakes require a fast response from local authorities. Well trained rescue teams have to be available, equipment and technology has to be ready set up, information have to be directed to the right positions so the head quarter can manage the operation precisely. The main goal is to reach the most affected areas in a minimum of time. But even with the best preparation for these cases, there will always be the uncertainty of what really happened in the affected area. Modern geophysical sensor networks provide high quality data. These measurements, however, are only mapping disjoint values from their respective locations for a limited amount of parameters. Using observations of witnesses represents one approach to enhance measured values from sensors ("humans as sensors"). These observations are increasingly disseminated via social media platforms. These "social sensors" offer several advantages over common sensors, e.g. high mobility, high versatility of captured parameters as well as rapid distribution of information. Moreover, the amount of data offered by social media platforms is quite extensive. We analyze messages distributed via Twitter after major earthquakes to get rapid information on what eye-witnesses report from the epicentral area. We use this information to (a) quickly learn about damage and losses to support fast disaster response and to (b) densify geophysical networks in areas where there is sparse information to gain a more detailed insight on felt intensities. We present a case study from the Mw 7.1 Philippines (Bohol) earthquake that happened on Oct. 15 2013. We extract Twitter messages, so called tweets containing one or more specified keywords from the semantic field of "earthquake" and use them for further analysis. For the time frame of Oct. 15 to Oct 18 we get a data base of in total 50.000 tweets whereof 2900 tweets are geo-localized and 470 have a photo attached. Analyses for both national level and locally for

  13. IMPLEMENTATION OF INFORMATION SHARING DEMONSTRATION AMONG ORGANIZATIONS IN CHARGE OF DISASTER MANAGEMENT IN TOKYO METROPOLITAN NEAR FIELD EARTHQUAKE DISASTER

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hada, Yasunori; Kondo, Shinya; Meguro, Kimiro; Ohara, Miho; Zama, Shinsaku; Endo, Makoto; Kobayashi, Keiji; Suzuki, Takeyasu; Noda, Itsuki; Shimora, Hiroki; Takeuchi, Ikuo; Kobayashi, Satoshi; Arakawa, Junpei; Yoshimoto, Kenichi

    For realizing cross-sectional inform ation sharing in the Tokyo metropolitan area, we develop disaster management applications to reduce negative impact due to vital issue in phase of initial response, and cooperation of those applications are demonstrated toward public officials in charge of disaster management. The demonstration of information sharing among disaster related organizations focusing on issues about simultaneous multiple post-earthquake fires and rescue operations after an earthquake directly underneath Tokyo are reported.

  14. Earthquakes in Mississippi and vicinity 1811-2010

    Dart, Richard L.; Bograd, Michael B.E.

    2011-01-01

    This map summarizes two centuries of earthquake activity in Mississippi. Work on the Mississippi map was done in collaboration with the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality, Office of Geology. The earthquake data plotted on the map are from several sources: the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality, the Center for Earthquake Research and Information, the National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research, and the Arkansas Geological Survey. In addition to earthquake locations, other materials include seismic hazard and isoseismal maps and related text. Earthquakes are a legitimate concern in Mississippi and parts of adjacent States. Mississippi has undergone a number of felt earthquakes since 1811. At least two of these events caused property damage: a magnitude 4.7 earthquake in 1931, and a magnitude 4.3 earthquake in 1967. The map shows all historical and instrumentally located earthquakes in Mississippi and vicinity between 1811 and 2010. The largest historic earthquake in the vicinity of the State was an intensity XI event, on December 16, 1811; the first earthquake in the New Madrid sequence. This violent event and the earthquakes that followed caused considerable damage to the then sparsely settled region.

  15. A public health issue related to collateral seismic hazards: The valley fever outbreak triggered by the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake

    Jibson, R.W.

    2002-01-01

    Following the 17 January 1994 Northridge. California earthquake (M = 6.7), Ventura County, California, experienced a major outbreak of coccidioidomycosis (CM), commonly known as valley fever, a respiratory disease contracted by inhaling airborne fungal spores. In the 8 weeks following the earthquake (24 January through 15 March), 203 outbreak-associated cases were reported, which is about an order of magnitude more than the expected number of cases, and three of these cases were fatal. Simi Valley, in easternmost Ventura County, had the highest attack rate in the county, and the attack rate decreased westward across the county. The temporal and spatial distribution of CM cases indicates that the outbreak resulted from inhalation of spore-contaminated dust generated by earthquake-triggered landslides. Canyons North East of Simi Valley produced many highly disrupted, dust-generating landslides during the earthquake and its aftershocks. Winds after the earthquake were from the North East, which transported dust into Simi Valley and beyond to communities to the West. The three fatalities from the CM epidemic accounted for 4 percent of the total earthquake-related fatalities.

  16. A Public Health Issue Related To Collateral Seismic Hazards: The Valley Fever Outbreak Triggered By The 1994 Northridge, California Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jibson, Randall W.

    Following the 17 January 1994 Northridge, California earthquake (M = 6.7), Ventura County, California, experienced a major outbreak ofcoccidioidomycosis (CM), commonly known as valley fever, a respiratory disease contracted byinhaling airborne fungal spores. In the 8 weeks following the earthquake (24 Januarythrough 15 March), 203 outbreak-associated cases were reported, which is about an order of magnitude more than the expected number of cases, and three of these cases were fatal.Simi Valley, in easternmost Ventura County, had the highest attack rate in the county,and the attack rate decreased westward across the county. The temporal and spatial distribution of CM cases indicates that the outbreak resulted from inhalation of spore-contaminated dust generated by earthquake-triggered landslides. Canyons North East of Simi Valleyproduced many highly disrupted, dust-generating landslides during the earthquake andits aftershocks. Winds after the earthquake were from the North East, which transporteddust into Simi Valley and beyond to communities to the West. The three fatalities from the CM epidemic accounted for 4 percent of the total earthquake-related fatalities.

  17. 30 CFR 250.219 - What oil and hazardous substance spills information must accompany the EP?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What oil and hazardous substance spills information must accompany the EP? 250.219 Section 250.219 Mineral Resources MINERALS MANAGEMENT SERVICE... and Information Contents of Exploration Plans (ep) § 250.219 What oil and hazardous substance spills...

  18. National information network and database system of hazardous waste management in China

    SciT

    Ma Hongchang

    1996-12-31

    Industries in China generate large volumes of hazardous waste, which makes it essential for the nation to pay more attention to hazardous waste management. National laws and regulations, waste surveys, and manifest tracking and permission systems have been initiated. Some centralized hazardous waste disposal facilities are under construction. China`s National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA) has also obtained valuable information on hazardous waste management from developed countries. To effectively share this information with local environmental protection bureaus, NEPA developed a national information network and database system for hazardous waste management. This information network will have such functions as information collection, inquiry,more » and connection. The long-term objective is to establish and develop a national and local hazardous waste management information network. This network will significantly help decision makers and researchers because it will be easy to obtain information (e.g., experiences of developed countries in hazardous waste management) to enhance hazardous waste management in China. The information network consists of five parts: technology consulting, import-export management, regulation inquiry, waste survey, and literature inquiry.« less

  19. A plate boundary earthquake record from a wetland adjacent to the Alpine fault in New Zealand refines hazard estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cochran, U. A.; Clark, K. J.; Howarth, J. D.; Biasi, G. P.; Langridge, R. M.; Villamor, P.; Berryman, K. R.; Vandergoes, M. J.

    2017-04-01

    Discovery and investigation of millennial-scale geological records of past large earthquakes improve understanding of earthquake frequency, recurrence behaviour, and likelihood of future rupture of major active faults. Here we present a ∼2000 year-long, seven-event earthquake record from John O'Groats wetland adjacent to the Alpine fault in New Zealand, one of the most active strike-slip faults in the world. We linked this record with the 7000 year-long, 22-event earthquake record from Hokuri Creek (20 km along strike to the north) to refine estimates of earthquake frequency and recurrence behaviour for the South Westland section of the plate boundary fault. Eight cores from John O'Groats wetland revealed a sequence that alternated between organic-dominated and clastic-dominated sediment packages. Transitions from a thick organic unit to a thick clastic unit that were sharp, involved a significant change in depositional environment, and were basin-wide, were interpreted as evidence of past surface-rupturing earthquakes. Radiocarbon dates of short-lived organic fractions either side of these transitions were modelled to provide estimates for earthquake ages. Of the seven events recognised at the John O'Groats site, three post-date the most recent event at Hokuri Creek, two match events at Hokuri Creek, and two events at John O'Groats occurred in a long interval during which the Hokuri Creek site may not have been recording earthquakes clearly. The preferred John O'Groats-Hokuri Creek earthquake record consists of 27 events since ∼6000 BC for which we calculate a mean recurrence interval of 291 ± 23 years, shorter than previously estimated for the South Westland section of the fault and shorter than the current interseismic period. The revised 50-year conditional probability of a surface-rupturing earthquake on this fault section is 29%. The coefficient of variation is estimated at 0.41. We suggest the low recurrence variability is likely to be a feature of

  20. Reconnaissance engineering geology of the Haines area, Alaska, with emphasis on evaluation of earthquake and other geologic hazards

    Lemke, Richard Walter; Yehle, Lynn A.

    1972-01-01

    The Alaska earthquake of March 27, 1964, brought into sharp focus the need for engineering geologic studies in urban areas. Study of the Haines area constitutes an integral part of an overall program to evaluate earthquake and other geologic hazards in most of the larger Alaska coastal communities. The evaluations of geologic hazards that follow, although based only upon reconnaissance studies and, therefore, subject to revision, will provide broad guidelines useful in city and land-use planning. It is hoped that the knowledge gained will result in new facilities being built in the best possible geologic environments and being designed so as to minimize future loss of life and property damage. Haines, which is in the northern part of southeastern Alaska approximately 75 miles northwest of Juneau, had a population, of about 700 people in 1970. It is built at the northern end of the Chilkat Peninsula and lies within the Coast Mountains of the Pacific Mountain system. The climate is predominantly marine and is characterized by mild winters and cool summers. The mapped area described in this report comprises about 17 square miles of land; deep fiords constitute most of the remaining mapped area that is evaluated in this study. The Haines area was covered by glacier ice at least once and probably several times during the Pleistocene Epoch. The presence of emergent marine deposits, several hundred feet above sea level, demonstrates that the land has been uplifted relative to sea level since the last major deglaciation of the region about 10,000 years ago. The rate of relative uplift of the land at Haines during the past 39 years is 2.26 cm per year. Most or all of this uplift appears to be due to rebound as a result of deglaciation. Both bedrock and surficial deposits are present in the area. Metamorphic and igneous rocks constitute the exposed bedrock. The metamorphic rocks consist of metabasalt of Mesozoic age and pyroxenite of probable early middle Cretaceous age. The

  1. Notice of Proposed Information Collection Request Regarding Clean Water Act Hazardous Substances and Spill Impacts

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Announcement of a request for public comment on a proposed information collection request. The information collected will help determine the facilities that could be subject to spill prevention regulations for hazardous substances listed at 40 CFR Part 116

  2. Multispectral, hyperspectral, and LiDAR remote sensing and geographic information fusion for improved earthquake response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kruse, F. A.; Kim, A. M.; Runyon, S. C.; Carlisle, Sarah C.; Clasen, C. C.; Esterline, C. H.; Jalobeanu, A.; Metcalf, J. P.; Basgall, P. L.; Trask, D. M.; Olsen, R. C.

    2014-06-01

    The Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) Remote Sensing Center (RSC) and research partners have completed a remote sensing pilot project in support of California post-earthquake-event emergency response. The project goals were to dovetail emergency management requirements with remote sensing capabilities to develop prototype map products for improved earthquake response. NPS coordinated with emergency management services and first responders to compile information about essential elements of information (EEI) requirements. A wide variety of remote sensing datasets including multispectral imagery (MSI), hyperspectral imagery (HSI), and LiDAR were assembled by NPS for the purpose of building imagery baseline data; and to demonstrate the use of remote sensing to derive ground surface information for use in planning, conducting, and monitoring post-earthquake emergency response. Worldview-2 data were converted to reflectance, orthorectified, and mosaicked for most of Monterey County; CA. Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data acquired at two spatial resolutions were atmospherically corrected and analyzed in conjunction with the MSI data. LiDAR data at point densities from 1.4 pts/m2 to over 40 points/ m2 were analyzed to determine digital surface models. The multimodal data were then used to develop change detection approaches and products and other supporting information. Analysis results from these data along with other geographic information were used to identify and generate multi-tiered products tied to the level of post-event communications infrastructure (internet access + cell, cell only, no internet/cell). Technology transfer of these capabilities to local and state emergency response organizations gives emergency responders new tools in support of post-disaster operational scenarios.

  3. State-of-the-Art for Assessing Earthquake Hazards in the United States. Report 25. Parameters for Specifying Intensity-Related Earthquake Ground Motions.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-09-01

    and Sponheuer, W. 1969. Scale of Seismic Intensity: Proc. Fourth World Conf. on Earthquake Engineering, Santiago, Chile . Murphy, J. R., and O’Brien, L...Predom V/H el, V/I Vel V/H Displ V/H sec VIH Period Period Predom Accel cm/sec Vel cm Disp .05 Dur sec sec Period S11 2 0.48 MODIFIED MERCALLI INTENSITY...0.1 0. 0.16 142.20 Long. Vert Hor Vert Ratio Ratio Vert Ratio Vert r io Du r atio Predom Predom VIH Acce V/H Vel V /H Dspi V H sec 1, H Period Period

  4. Performance of USGS one-year earthquake hazard map for natural and induced seismicity in the central and eastern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brooks, E. M.; Stein, S.; Spencer, B. D.; Salditch, L.; Petersen, M. D.; McNamara, D. E.

    2017-12-01

    Seismicity in the central United States has dramatically increased since 2008 due to the injection of wastewater produced by oil and gas extraction. In response, the USGS created a one-year probabilistic hazard model and map for 2016 to describe the increased hazard posed to the central and eastern United States. Using the intensity of shaking reported to the "Did You Feel It?" system during 2016, we assess the performance of this model. Assessing the performance of earthquake hazard maps for natural and induced seismicity is conceptually similar but has practical differences. Maps that have return periods of hundreds or thousands of years— as commonly used for natural seismicity— can be assessed using historical intensity data that also span hundreds or thousands of years. Several different features stand out when assessing the USGS 2016 seismic hazard model for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes. First, the model can be assessed as a forecast in one year, because event rates are sufficiently high to permit evaluation with one year of data. Second, because these models are projections from the previous year thus implicitly assuming that fluid injection rates remain the same, misfit may reflect changes in human activity. Our results suggest that the model was very successful by the metric implicit in probabilistic hazard seismic assessment: namely, that the fraction of sites at which the maximum shaking exceeded the mapped value is comparable to that expected. The model also did well by a misfit metric that compares the spatial patterns of predicted and maximum observed shaking. This was true for both the central and eastern United States as a whole, and for the region within it with the highest amount of seismicity, Oklahoma and its surrounding area. The model performed least well in northern Texas, over-stating hazard, presumably because lower oil and gas prices and regulatory action reduced the water injection volume

  5. The exposure of Sydney (Australia) to earthquake-generated tsunamis, storms and sea level rise: a probabilistic multi-hazard approach

    PubMed Central

    Dall'Osso, F.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Moore, C.; Summerhayes, S.; Withycombe, G.

    2014-01-01

    Approximately 85% of Australia's population live along the coastal fringe, an area with high exposure to extreme inundations such as tsunamis. However, to date, no Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments (PTHA) that include inundation have been published for Australia. This limits the development of appropriate risk reduction measures by decision and policy makers. We describe our PTHA undertaken for the Sydney metropolitan area. Using the NOAA NCTR model MOST (Method for Splitting Tsunamis), we simulate 36 earthquake-generated tsunamis with annual probabilities of 1:100, 1:1,000 and 1:10,000, occurring under present and future predicted sea level conditions. For each tsunami scenario we generate a high-resolution inundation map of the maximum water level and flow velocity, and we calculate the exposure of buildings and critical infrastructure. Results indicate that exposure to earthquake-generated tsunamis is relatively low for present events, but increases significantly with higher sea level conditions. The probabilistic approach allowed us to undertake a comparison with an existing storm surge hazard assessment. Interestingly, the exposure to all the simulated tsunamis is significantly lower than that for the 1:100 storm surge scenarios, under the same initial sea level conditions. The results have significant implications for multi-risk and emergency management in Sydney. PMID:25492514

  6. The exposure of Sydney (Australia) to earthquake-generated tsunamis, storms and sea level rise: a probabilistic multi-hazard approach.

    PubMed

    Dall'Osso, F; Dominey-Howes, D; Moore, C; Summerhayes, S; Withycombe, G

    2014-12-10

    Approximately 85% of Australia's population live along the coastal fringe, an area with high exposure to extreme inundations such as tsunamis. However, to date, no Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments (PTHA) that include inundation have been published for Australia. This limits the development of appropriate risk reduction measures by decision and policy makers. We describe our PTHA undertaken for the Sydney metropolitan area. Using the NOAA NCTR model MOST (Method for Splitting Tsunamis), we simulate 36 earthquake-generated tsunamis with annual probabilities of 1:100, 1:1,000 and 1:10,000, occurring under present and future predicted sea level conditions. For each tsunami scenario we generate a high-resolution inundation map of the maximum water level and flow velocity, and we calculate the exposure of buildings and critical infrastructure. Results indicate that exposure to earthquake-generated tsunamis is relatively low for present events, but increases significantly with higher sea level conditions. The probabilistic approach allowed us to undertake a comparison with an existing storm surge hazard assessment. Interestingly, the exposure to all the simulated tsunamis is significantly lower than that for the 1:100 storm surge scenarios, under the same initial sea level conditions. The results have significant implications for multi-risk and emergency management in Sydney.

  7. Success in transmitting hazard science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Price, J. G.; Garside, T.

    2010-12-01

    Money motivates mitigation. An example of success in communicating scientific information about hazards, coupled with information about available money, is the follow-up action by local governments to actually mitigate. The Nevada Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee helps local governments prepare competitive proposals for federal funds to reduce risks from natural hazards. Composed of volunteers with expertise in emergency management, building standards, and earthquake, flood, and wildfire hazards, the committee advises the Nevada Division of Emergency Management on (1) the content of the State’s hazard mitigation plan and (2) projects that have been proposed by local governments and state agencies for funding from various post- and pre-disaster hazard mitigation programs of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Local governments must have FEMA-approved hazard mitigation plans in place before they can receive this funding. The committee has been meeting quarterly with elected and appointed county officials, at their offices, to encourage them to update their mitigation plans and apply for this funding. We have settled on a format that includes the county’s giving the committee an overview of its infrastructure, hazards, and preparedness. The committee explains the process for applying for mitigation grants and presents the latest information that we have about earthquake hazards, including locations of nearby active faults, historical seismicity, geodetic strain, loss-estimation modeling, scenarios, and documents about what to do before, during, and after an earthquake. Much of the county-specific information is available on the web. The presentations have been well received, in part because the committee makes the effort to go to their communities, and in part because the committee is helping them attract federal funds for local mitigation of not only earthquake hazards but also floods (including canal breaches) and wildfires, the other major concerns in

  8. 88 hours: The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center response to the 11 March 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake

    Hayes, G.P.; Earle, P.S.; Benz, H.M.; Wald, D.J.; Briggs, R.W.

    2011-01-01

    This article presents a timeline of NEIC response to a major global earthquake for the first time in a formal journal publication. We outline the key observations of the earthquake made by the NEIC and its partner agencies, discuss how these analyses evolved, and outline when and how this information was released to the public and to other internal and external parties. Our goal in the presentation of this material is to provide a detailed explanation of the issues faced in the response to a rare, giant earthquake. We envisage that the timeline format of this presentation can highlight technical and procedural successes and shortcomings, which may in turn help prompt research by our academic partners and further improvements to our future response efforts. We have shown how NEIC response efforts have significantly improved over the past six years since the great 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake. We are optimistic that the research spawned from this disaster, and the unparalleled dense and diverse data sets that have been recorded, can lead to similar-and necessary-improvements in the future.

  9. CISN Display Progress to Date - Reliable Delivery of Real-Time Earthquake Information, and ShakeMap to Critical End Users

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rico, H.; Hauksson, E.; Thomas, E.; Friberg, P.; Frechette, K.; Given, D.

    2003-12-01

    The California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) has collaborated to develop a next-generation earthquake notification system that is nearing its first operations-ready release. The CISN Display actively alerts users of seismic data, and vital earthquake hazards information following a significant event. It will primarily replace the Caltech/USGS Broadcast of Earthquakes (CUBE) and Rapid Earthquake Data Integration (REDI) Display as the principal means of delivering geographical seismic data to emergency operations centers, utility companies and media outlets. A subsequent goal is to provide automated access to the many Web products produced by regional seismic networks after an earthquake. Another aim is to create a highly configurable client, allowing user organizations to overlay infrastructure data critical to their roles as first-responders, or lifeline operators. And the final goal is to integrate these requirements, into a package offering several layers of reliability to ensure delivery of services. Central to the CISN Display's role as a gateway to Web-based earthquake products is its comprehensive XML-messaging schema. The message model uses many of the same attributes in the CUBE format, but extends the old standard by provisioning additional elements for products currently available, and others yet to be considered. The client consumes these XML-messages, sorts them through a resident Quake Data Merge filter, and posts updates that also include hyperlinks associated to specific event IDs on the display map. Earthquake products available for delivery to the CISN Display are ShakeMap, focal mechanisms, waveform data, felt reports, aftershock forecasts and earthquake commentaries. By design the XML-message schema can evolve as products and information needs change, without breaking existing applications that rely on it. The latest version of the CISN Display can also automatically download ShakeMaps and display shaking intensity within the GIS system. This

  10. Earthquake Emergency Education in Dushanbe, Tajikistan

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mohadjer, Solmaz; Bendick, Rebecca; Halvorson, Sarah J.; Saydullaev, Umed; Hojiboev, Orifjon; Stickler, Christine; Adam, Zachary R.

    2010-01-01

    We developed a middle school earthquake science and hazards curriculum to promote earthquake awareness to students in the Central Asian country of Tajikistan. These materials include pre- and post-assessment activities, six science activities describing physical processes related to earthquakes, five activities on earthquake hazards and mitigation…

  11. Southern California Earthquake Center/Undergraduate Studies in Earthquake Information Technology (SCEC/UseIT): Towards the Next Generation of Internship

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perry, S.; Benthien, M.; Jordan, T. H.

    2005-12-01

    The SCEC/UseIT internship program is training the next generation of earthquake scientist, with methods that can be adapted to other disciplines. UseIT interns work collaboratively, in multi-disciplinary teams, conducting computer science research that is needed by earthquake scientists. Since 2002, the UseIT program has welcomed 64 students, in some two dozen majors, at all class levels, from schools around the nation. Each summer''s work is posed as a ``Grand Challenge.'' The students then organize themselves into project teams, decide how to proceed, and pool their diverse talents and backgrounds. They have traditional mentors, who provide advice and encouragement, but they also mentor one another, and this has proved to be a powerful relationship. Most begin with fear that their Grand Challenge is impossible, and end with excitement and pride about what they have accomplished. The 22 UseIT interns in summer, 2005, were primarily computer science and engineering majors, with others in geology, mathematics, English, digital media design, physics, history, and cinema. The 2005 Grand Challenge was to "build an earthquake monitoring system" to aid scientists who must visualize rapidly evolving earthquake sequences and convey information to emergency personnel and the public. Most UseIT interns were engaged in software engineering, bringing new datasets and functionality to SCEC-VDO (Virtual Display of Objects), a 3D visualization software that was prototyped by interns last year, using Java3D and an extensible, plug-in architecture based on the Eclipse Integrated Development Environment. Other UseIT interns used SCEC-VDO to make animated movies, and experimented with imagery in order to communicate concepts and events in earthquake science. One movie-making project included the creation of an assessment to test the effectiveness of the movie''s educational message. Finally, one intern created an interactive, multimedia presentation of the UseIT program.

  12. Haz-Map: Information on Hazardous Chemicals and Occupational Diseases

    MedlinePlus

    ... Occupational Activities Industries Job Tasks Processes Symptoms/Findings Customer Service: tehip@teh.nlm.nih.gov Specialized Information Services ... Health Disclaimer Notice Privacy Last Updated: October 2017 Customer Service: tehip@teh.nlm.nih.gov Specialized Information Services ...

  13. Continuing megathrust earthquake potential in Chile after the 2014 Iquique earthquake

    Hayes, Gavin P.; Herman, Matthew W.; Barnhart, William D.; Furlong, Kevin P.; Riquelme, Sebástian; Benz, Harley M.; Bergman, Eric; Barrientos, Sergio; Earle, Paul S.; Samsonov, Sergey

    2014-01-01

    The seismic gap theory identifies regions of elevated hazard based on a lack of recent seismicity in comparison with other portions of a fault. It has successfully explained past earthquakes (see, for example, ref. 2) and is useful for qualitatively describing where large earthquakes might occur. A large earthquake had been expected in the subduction zone adjacent to northern Chile which had not ruptured in a megathrust earthquake since a M ~8.8 event in 1877. On 1 April 2014 a M 8.2 earthquake occurred within this seismic gap. Here we present an assessment of the seismotectonics of the March–April 2014 Iquique sequence, including analyses of earthquake relocations, moment tensors, finite fault models, moment deficit calculations and cumulative Coulomb stress transfer. This ensemble of information allows us to place the sequence within the context of regional seismicity and to identify areas of remaining and/or elevated hazard. Our results constrain the size and spatial extent of rupture, and indicate that this was not the earthquake that had been anticipated. Significant sections of the northern Chile subduction zone have not ruptured in almost 150 years, so it is likely that future megathrust earthquakes will occur to the south and potentially to the north of the 2014 Iquique sequence.

  14. Continuing megathrust earthquake potential in Chile after the 2014 Iquique earthquake.

    PubMed

    Hayes, Gavin P; Herman, Matthew W; Barnhart, William D; Furlong, Kevin P; Riquelme, Sebástian; Benz, Harley M; Bergman, Eric; Barrientos, Sergio; Earle, Paul S; Samsonov, Sergey

    2014-08-21

    The seismic gap theory identifies regions of elevated hazard based on a lack of recent seismicity in comparison with other portions of a fault. It has successfully explained past earthquakes (see, for example, ref. 2) and is useful for qualitatively describing where large earthquakes might occur. A large earthquake had been expected in the subduction zone adjacent to northern Chile, which had not ruptured in a megathrust earthquake since a M ∼8.8 event in 1877. On 1 April 2014 a M 8.2 earthquake occurred within this seismic gap. Here we present an assessment of the seismotectonics of the March-April 2014 Iquique sequence, including analyses of earthquake relocations, moment tensors, finite fault models, moment deficit calculations and cumulative Coulomb stress transfer. This ensemble of information allows us to place the sequence within the context of regional seismicity and to identify areas of remaining and/or elevated hazard. Our results constrain the size and spatial extent of rupture, and indicate that this was not the earthquake that had been anticipated. Significant sections of the northern Chile subduction zone have not ruptured in almost 150 years, so it is likely that future megathrust earthquakes will occur to the south and potentially to the north of the 2014 Iquique sequence.

  15. Far field tsunami simulations of the 1755 Lisbon earthquake: Implications for tsunami hazard to the U.S. East Coast and the Caribbean

    Barkan, R.; ten Brink, Uri S.; Lin, J.

    2009-01-01

    The great Lisbon earthquake of November 1st, 1755 with an estimated moment magnitude of 8.5-9.0 was the most destructive earthquake in European history. The associated tsunami run-up was reported to have reached 5-15??m along the Portuguese and Moroccan coasts and the run-up was significant at the Azores and Madeira Island. Run-up reports from a trans-oceanic tsunami were documented in the Caribbean, Brazil and Newfoundland (Canada). No reports were documented along the U.S. East Coast. Many attempts have been made to characterize the 1755 Lisbon earthquake source using geophysical surveys and modeling the near-field earthquake intensity and tsunami effects. Studying far field effects, as presented in this paper, is advantageous in establishing constraints on source location and strike orientation because trans-oceanic tsunamis are less influenced by near source bathymetry and are unaffected by triggered submarine landslides at the source. Source location, fault orientation and bathymetry are the main elements governing transatlantic tsunami propagation to sites along the U.S. East Coast, much more than distance from the source and continental shelf width. Results of our far and near-field tsunami simulations based on relative amplitude comparison limit the earthquake source area to a region located south of the Gorringe Bank in the center of the Horseshoe Plain. This is in contrast with previously suggested sources such as Marqu??s de Pombal Fault, and Gulf of C??diz Fault, which are farther east of the Horseshoe Plain. The earthquake was likely to be a thrust event on a fault striking ~ 345?? and dipping to the ENE as opposed to the suggested earthquake source of the Gorringe Bank Fault, which trends NE-SW. Gorringe Bank, the Madeira-Tore Rise (MTR), and the Azores appear to have acted as topographic scatterers for tsunami energy, shielding most of the U.S. East Coast from the 1755 Lisbon tsunami. Additional simulations to assess tsunami hazard to the U.S. East

  16. A review on earthquake and tsunami hazards of the Sumatran plate boundary: Observing expected and unexpected events after the Aceh-Andaman Mw 9.15 event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Natawidjaja, D.

    2013-12-01

    The 600-km Mentawai megathrust had produced two giant historical earthquakes generating big tsunamies in 1797 and 1833. The SuGAr (Sumatran GPS continuous Array) network, first deployed in 2002, shows that the subduction interface underlying Mentawai Islands and the neighboring Nias section in the north are fully locked, thus confirming their potential hazards. Outreach activities to warn people about earthquake and tsunamies had been started since 4 months prior to the 26 December 2004 in Aceh-Andaman earthquake (Mw 9.15). Later in March 2005, the expected megathrust earthquake (Mw 8.7) hit Nias-Simelue area and killed about 2000 people, releasing the accumulated strain since the previous 1861 event (~Mw 8.5). After then many Mw 7s and smaller events occured in Sumatra, filling areas between and around two giant ruptures and heighten seismicities in neighboring areas. In March 2007, the twin earthquake disaster (Mw 6.3 and Mw 6.4) broke two consecutive segments of the transcurrent Sumatran fault in the Singkarak lake area. Only six month later, in September 2007, the rapid-fire-failures of three consecutive megathrust patches (Mw 8.5, Mw 7.9 and Mw 7.0) ruptured a 250-km-section of the southern part of the Mentawai. It was a big surprise since this particular section is predicted as a very-low coupled section from modelling the SuGAr data, and hence, bypassing the more potential fully coupled section of the Mentawai in between the 2005 and 2007 ruptures. In September 2009, a rare unexpected event (Mw 7.6) suddenly ruptured an intracrustal fault in the subducted slab down under Padang City and killed about 500 people. Padang had been in preparation for the next tsunami but not for strong shakes from near by major earthquake. This event seems to have remotely triggered another Mw 6.7 on the Sumatran fault near kerinci Lake, a few hundred kilometers south of Padang, in less than a day. Just a year later, in November 2010, again an unexpected large slow-slip event of

  17. How citizen seismology is transforming rapid public earthquake information: the example of LastQuake smartphone application and Twitter QuakeBot

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bossu, R.; Etivant, C.; Roussel, F.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Steed, R.

    2014-12-01

    Smartphone applications have swiftly become one of the most popular tools for rapid reception of earthquake information for the public. Wherever someone's own location is, they can be automatically informed when an earthquake has struck just by setting a magnitude threshold and an area of interest. No need to browse the internet: the information reaches you automatically and instantaneously! One question remains: are the provided earthquake notifications always relevant for the public? A while after damaging earthquakes many eyewitnesses scrap the application they installed just after the mainshock. Why? Because either the magnitude threshold is set too high and many felt earthquakes are missed, or it is set too low and the majority of the notifications are related to unfelt earthquakes thereby only increasing anxiety among the population at each new update. Felt and damaging earthquakes are the ones of societal importance even when of small magnitude. LastQuake app and Twitter feed (QuakeBot) focuses on these earthquakes that matter for the public by collating different information threads covering tsunamigenic, damaging and felt earthquakes. Non-seismic detections and macroseismic questionnaires collected online are combined to identify felt earthquakes regardless their magnitude. Non seismic detections include Twitter earthquake detections, developed by the USGS, where the number of tweets containing the keyword "earthquake" is monitored in real time and flashsourcing, developed by the EMSC, which detect traffic surges on its rapid earthquake information website caused by the natural convergence of eyewitnesses who rush to the Internet to investigate the cause of the shaking that they have just felt. We will present the identification process of the felt earthquakes, the smartphone application and the 27 automatically generated tweets and how, by providing better public services, we collect more data from citizens.

  18. Notification: Audit of Security Categorization for EPA Systems That Handle Hazardous Material Information

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Project #OA-FY18-0089, January 8, 2018. The OIG plans to begin preliminary research to determine whether the EPA classified the sensitivity of data for systems that handle hazardous waste material information as prescribed by NIST.

  19. REASSESSMENT OF TSUNAMI HAZARD IN THE CITY OF IQUIQUE, CHILE, AFTER THE PISAGUA EARTHQUAKE OF APRIL 2014 In the present contribution, we will reassess the tsunami hazard for the North of Chile taking into account the occurrence of the recent events, focusing on the potential tsunami impact that a worse case scenario could produce in the city of Iquique.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cienfuegos, R.; Suarez, L.; Aránguiz, R.; Gonzalez, G.; González-Carrasco, J. F.; Catalan, P. A.; Dominguez, J. C.; Tomita, T.

    2014-12-01

    On April 1st2014 a 8.1 Mw Earthquake occurred at 23:46:50 UTC (20:46:50 local time) with its epicenter located off the coast of Pisagua, 68 km north of the city of Iquique (An et al., 2014). The potential risk of earthquake and tsunami in this area was widely recognized by the scientific community (Chlieh et al., 2004). Nevertheless, the energy released by this earthquake and the associated slip distribution was much less than expected. In the present contribution, we will reassess the tsunami hazard for the North of Chile taking into account the occurrence of the recent events, focusing on the potential impact that a worse case scenario could produce in the city of Iquique. For that purpose, an updated tsunami source will be derived using updated information on the seismic and co-seismic tectonic displacements that is available from historical, geological information, and the dense GPS and seismometer networks available in the North of Chile. The updated tsunami source will be used to generate initial conditions for a tsunami and analyze the following aspects: i) large scale hydrodynamics, ii) arrival times, maximum flow depths, and inundation area, iii) potential impact on the port of Iquique, and more specifically on the container's drift that the tsunami could produce. This analysis is essential to reassess tsunami hazard in Iquique, evaluate evacuation plans and mitigation options regarding the port operation. Tsunami propagation and inundation will be conducted using the STOC model (Tomita and Honda, 2010), and a high resolution Lidar topographic database. ReferencesAn, C. et al. (2014). Tsunami source and its validation of the 2014 Iquique, Chile Earthquake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, doi:10.1002/2014GL060567. Chlieh, et al. (2004). Crustal deformation and fault slip during the seismic cycle in the north Chile subduction zone, from GPS and INSAR observations, Geophys J. Int., 158(2), 695-711, 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2004.02326.x. Tomita, T., & Honda, K. (2010

  20. Earthquake scenario and probabilistic ground-shaking hazard maps for the Albuquerque-Belen-Santa Fe, New Mexico, corridor

    Wong, I.; Olig, S.; Dober, M.; Silva, W.; Wright, D.; Thomas, P.; Gregor, N.; Sanford, A.; Lin, K.-W.; Love, D.

    2004-01-01

    These maps are not intended to be a substitute for site-specific studies for engineering design nor to replace standard maps commonly referenced in building codes. Rather, we hope that these maps will be used as a guide by government agencies; the engineering, urban planning, emergency preparedness, and response communities; and the general public as part of an overall program to reduce earthquake risk and losses in New Mexico.

  1. Environmentally Friendly Solution to Ground Hazards in Design of Bridges in Earthquake Prone Areas Using Timber Piles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sadeghi, H.

    2015-12-01

    Bridges are major elements of infrastructure in all societies. Their safety and continued serviceability guaranties the transportation and emergency access in urban and rural areas. However, these important structures are subject to earthquake induced damages in structure and foundations. The basic approach to the proper support of foundations are a) distribution of imposed loads to foundation in a way they can resist those loads without excessive settlement and failure; b) modification of foundation ground with various available methods; and c) combination of "a" and "b". The engineers has to face the task of designing the foundations meeting all safely and serviceability criteria but sometimes when there are numerous environmental and financial constrains, the use of some traditional methods become inevitable. This paper explains the application of timber piles to improve ground resistance to liquefaction and to secure the abutments of short to medium length bridges in an earthquake/liquefaction prone area in Bohol Island, Philippines. The limitations of using the common ground improvement methods (i.e., injection, dynamic compaction) because of either environmental or financial concerns along with the abundance of timber in the area made the engineers to use a network of timber piles behind the backwalls of the bridge abutments. The suggested timber pile network is simulated by numerical methods and its safety is examined. The results show that the compaction caused by driving of the piles and bearing capacity provided by timbers reduce the settlement and lateral movements due to service and earthquake induced loads.

  2. Review of the Literature on Determinants of Chemical Hazard Information Recall among Workers and Consumers

    PubMed Central

    Sathar, Farzana; Dalvie, Mohamed Aqiel; Rother, Hanna-Andrea

    2016-01-01

    In many low and middle income countries (LMIC), workers’ and consumers’ only access to risk and hazard information in relation to the chemicals they use or work with is on the chemical label and safety data sheet. Recall of chemical hazard information is vital in order for label warnings and precautionary information to promote effective safety behaviors. A literature review, therefore, was conducted on determinants of chemical hazard information recall among workers and consumers globally. Since comprehension and recall are closely linked, the determinants of both were reviewed. Literature was reviewed from both online and print peer reviewed journals for all study designs and countries. This review indicated that the level of education, previous training and the inclusion of pictograms on the hazard communication material are all factors that contribute to the recall of hazard information. The influence of gender and age on recall is incongruent and remains to be explored. More research is required on the demographic predictors of the recall of hazard information, the effect of design and non-design factors on recall, the effect of training on the recall among low literate populations and the examining of different regions or contexts. PMID:27258291

  3. Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

    2016-07-15

    Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the