Earthquake casualty models within the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.; Earle, Paul S.; Porter, Keith A.; Hearne, Mike

2011-01-01

Since the launch of the USGS’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system in fall of 2007, the time needed for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to determine and comprehend the scope of any major earthquake disaster anywhere in the world has been dramatically reduced to less than 30 min. PAGER alerts consist of estimated shaking hazard from the ShakeMap system, estimates of population exposure at various shaking intensities, and a list of the most severely shaken cities in the epicentral area. These estimates help government, scientific, and relief agencies to guide their responses in the immediate aftermath of a significant earthquake. To account for wide variability and uncertainty associated with inventory, structural vulnerability and casualty data, PAGER employs three different global earthquake fatality/loss computation models. This article describes the development of the models and demonstrates the loss estimation capability for earthquakes that have occurred since 2007. The empirical model relies on country-specific earthquake loss data from past earthquakes and makes use of calibrated casualty rates for future prediction. The semi-empirical and analytical models are engineering-based and rely on complex datasets including building inventories, time-dependent population distributions within different occupancies, the vulnerability of regional building stocks, and casualty rates given structural collapse.

Tsunami Loss Assessment For Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hancilar, Ufuk; Cakti, Eser; Zulfikar, Can; Demircioglu, Mine; Erdik, Mustafa

2010-05-01

Tsunami risk and loss assessment incorporating with the inundation mapping in Istanbul and the Marmara Sea region are presented in this study. The city of Istanbul is under the threat of earthquakes expected to originate from the Main Marmara branch of North Anatolian Fault System. In the Marmara region the earthquake hazard reached very high levels with 2% annual probability of occurrence of a magnitude 7+ earthquake on the Main Marmara Fault. Istanbul is the biggest city of Marmara region as well as of Turkey with its almost 12 million inhabitants. It is home to 40% of the industrial facilities in Turkey and operates as the financial and trade hub of the country. Past earthquakes have evidenced that the structural reliability of residential and industrial buildings, as well as that of lifelines including port and harbor structures in the country is questionable. These facts make the management of earthquake risks imperative for the reduction of physical and socio-economic losses. The level of expected tsunami hazard in Istanbul is low as compared to earthquake hazard. Yet the assets at risk along the shores of the city make a thorough assessment of tsunami risk imperative. Important residential and industrial centres exist along the shores of the Marmara Sea. Particularly along the northern and eastern shores we see an uninterrupted settlement pattern with industries, businesses, commercial centres and ports and harbours in between. Following the inundation maps resulting from deterministic and probabilistic tsunami hazard analyses, vulnerability and risk analyses are presented and the socio-economic losses are estimated. This study is part of EU-supported FP6 project ‘TRANSFER'.

Sensitivity of Earthquake Loss Estimates to Source Modeling Assumptions and Uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reasenberg, Paul A.; Shostak, Nan; Terwilliger, Sharon

2006-01-01

Introduction: This report explores how uncertainty in an earthquake source model may affect estimates of earthquake economic loss. Specifically, it focuses on the earthquake source model for the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) created by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities. The loss calculations are made using HAZUS-MH, a publicly available computer program developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for calculating future losses from earthquakes, floods and hurricanes within the United States. The database built into HAZUS-MH includes a detailed building inventory, population data, data on transportation corridors, bridges, utility lifelines, etc. Earthquake hazard in the loss calculations is based upon expected (median value) ground motion maps called ShakeMaps calculated for the scenario earthquake sources defined in WGCEP. The study considers the effect of relaxing certain assumptions in the WG02 model, and explores the effect of hypothetical reductions in epistemic uncertainty in parts of the model. For example, it addresses questions such as what would happen to the calculated loss distribution if the uncertainty in slip rate in the WG02 model were reduced (say, by obtaining additional geologic data)? What would happen if the geometry or amount of aseismic slip (creep) on the region's faults were better known? And what would be the effect on the calculated loss distribution if the time-dependent earthquake probability were better constrained, either by eliminating certain probability models or by better constraining the inherent randomness in earthquake recurrence? The study does not consider the effect of reducing uncertainty in the hazard introduced through models of attenuation and local site characteristics, although these may have a comparable or greater effect than does source-related uncertainty. Nor does it consider sources of uncertainty in the building inventory, building fragility curves, and other assumptions

Spatial correlation of probabilistic earthquake ground motion and loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wesson, R.L.; Perkins, D.M.

2001-01-01

Spatial correlation of annual earthquake ground motions and losses can be used to estimate the variance of annual losses to a portfolio of properties exposed to earthquakes A direct method is described for the calculations of the spatial correlation of earthquake ground motions and losses. Calculations for the direct method can be carried out using either numerical quadrature or a discrete, matrix-based approach. Numerical results for this method are compared with those calculated from a simple Monte Carlo simulation. Spatial correlation of ground motion and loss is induced by the systematic attenuation of ground motion with distance from the source, by common site conditions, and by the finite length of fault ruptures. Spatial correlation is also strongly dependent on the partitioning of the variability, given an event, into interevent and intraevent components. Intraevent variability reduces the spatial correlation of losses. Interevent variability increases spatial correlation of losses. The higher the spatial correlation, the larger the variance in losses to a port-folio, and the more likely extreme values become. This result underscores the importance of accurately determining the relative magnitudes of intraevent and interevent variability in ground-motion studies, because of the strong impact in estimating earthquake losses to a portfolio. The direct method offers an alternative to simulation for calculating the variance of losses to a portfolio, which may reduce the amount of calculation required.

Global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith

2010-01-01

We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Using a Systems Analysis Approach to Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legg, M.; Eguchi, R. T.

2015-12-01

The earthquake hazard mitigation goal is to reduce losses due to severe natural events. The first step is to conduct a Seismic Risk Assessment consisting of 1) hazard estimation, 2) vulnerability analysis, 3) exposure compilation. Seismic hazards include ground deformation, shaking, and inundation. The hazard estimation may be probabilistic or deterministic. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is generally applied to site-specific Risk assessments, but may involve large areas as in a National Seismic Hazard Mapping program. Deterministic hazard assessments are needed for geographically distributed exposure such as lifelines (infrastructure), but may be important for large communities. Vulnerability evaluation includes quantification of fragility for construction or components including personnel. Exposure represents the existing or planned construction, facilities, infrastructure, and population in the affected area. Risk (expected loss) is the product of the quantified hazard, vulnerability (damage algorithm), and exposure which may be used to prepare emergency response plans, retrofit existing construction, or use community planning to avoid hazards. The risk estimate provides data needed to acquire earthquake insurance to assist with effective recovery following a severe event. Earthquake Scenarios used in Deterministic Risk Assessments provide detailed information on where hazards may be most severe, what system components are most susceptible to failure, and to evaluate the combined effects of a severe earthquake to the whole system or community. Casualties (injuries and death) have been the primary factor in defining building codes for seismic-resistant construction. Economic losses may be equally significant factors that can influence proactive hazard mitigation. Large urban earthquakes may produce catastrophic losses due to a cascading of effects often missed in PSHA. Economic collapse may ensue if damaged workplaces, disruption of utilities, and

A global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, K.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.

2010-01-01

We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat's demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Spatial modeling for estimation of earthquakes economic loss in West Java

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Retnowati, Dyah Ayu; Meilano, Irwan; Riqqi, Akhmad; Hanifa, Nuraini Rahma

2017-07-01

Indonesia has a high vulnerability towards earthquakes. The low adaptive capacity could make the earthquake become disaster that should be concerned. That is why risk management should be applied to reduce the impacts, such as estimating the economic loss caused by hazard. The study area of this research is West Java. The main reason of West Java being vulnerable toward earthquake is the existence of active faults. These active faults are Lembang Fault, Cimandiri Fault, Baribis Fault, and also Megathrust subduction zone. This research tries to estimates the value of earthquakes economic loss from some sources in West Java. The economic loss is calculated by using HAZUS method. The components that should be known are hazard (earthquakes), exposure (building), and the vulnerability. Spatial modeling is aimed to build the exposure data and make user get the information easier by showing the distribution map, not only in tabular data. As the result, West Java could have economic loss up to 1,925,122,301,868,140 IDR ± 364,683,058,851,703.00 IDR, which is estimated from six earthquake sources with maximum possibly magnitude. However, the estimation of economic loss value in this research is the worst case earthquakes occurrence which is probably over-estimated.

Factors influencing to earthquake caused economical losses on urban territories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurtaev, B.; Khakimov, S.

2005-12-01

Questions of assessment of earthquake economical losses on urban territories of Uzbekistan, taking into account damage forming factors, which are increqasing or reducing economical losses were discussed in the paper. Buildings and facilities vulnerability factors were classified. From total value (equal to 50) were selected most important ones. Factors ranging by level of impact and weight function in loss assessment were ranged. One group of damage forming factors includs seismic hazard assessment, design, construction and maintenance of building and facilities. Other one is formed by city planning characteristics and includes : density of constructions and population, area of soft soils, existence of liquefaction susceptible soils and etc. To all these factors has been given weight functions and interval values by groups. Methodical recomendations for loss asessment taking into account above mentioned factors were developed. It gives possibility to carry out preventive measures for protection of vulnerable territories, to differentiate cost assessment of each region in relation with territory peculiarity and damage value. Using developed method we have ranged cities by risk level. It has allowed to establish ratings of the general vulnerability of urban territories of cities and on their basis to make optimum decisions, oriented to loss mitigation and increase of safety of population. Besides the technique can be used by insurance companies for estimated zoning of territory, development of effective utilization schema of land resources, rational town-planning, an economic estimation of used territory for supply with information of the various works connected to an estimation of seismic hazard. Further improvement of technique of establishment of rating of cities by level of damage from earthquakes will allow to increase quality of construction, rationality of accommodation of buildings, will be an economic stimulator for increasing of seismic resistance of

On some methods for assessing earthquake predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molchan, G.; Romashkova, L.; Peresan, A.

2017-09-01

A regional approach to the problem of assessing earthquake predictions inevitably faces a deficit of data. We point out some basic limits of assessment methods reported in the literature, considering the practical case of the performance of the CN pattern recognition method in the prediction of large Italian earthquakes. Along with the classical hypothesis testing, a new game approach, the so-called parimutuel gambling (PG) method, is examined. The PG, originally proposed for the evaluation of the probabilistic earthquake forecast, has been recently adapted for the case of 'alarm-based' CN prediction. The PG approach is a non-standard method; therefore it deserves careful examination and theoretical analysis. We show that the PG alarm-based version leads to an almost complete loss of information about predicted earthquakes (even for a large sample). As a result, any conclusions based on the alarm-based PG approach are not to be trusted. We also show that the original probabilistic PG approach does not necessarily identifies the genuine forecast correctly among competing seismicity rate models, even when applied to extensive data.

Hazus® estimated annualized earthquake losses for the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, Kishor; Bausch, Doug; Rozelle, Jesse; Holub, John; McGowan, Sean

2017-01-01

Large earthquakes can cause social and economic disruption that can be unprecedented to any given community, and the full recovery from these impacts may or may not always be achievable. In the United States (U.S.), the 1994 M6.7 Northridge earthquake in California remains the third costliest disaster in U.S. history; and it was one of the most expensive disasters for the federal government. Internationally, earthquakes in the last decade alone have claimed tens of thousands of lives and caused hundreds of billions of dollars of economic impact throughout the globe (~90 billion U.S. dollars (USD) from 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan China, ~20 billion USD from 2010 M8.8 Maule earthquake in Chile, ~220 billion USD from 2011 M9.0 Tohoku Japan earthquake, ~25 billion USD from 2011 M6.3 Christchurch New Zealand, and ~22 billion USD from 2016 M7.0 Kumamoto Japan). Recent earthquakes show a pattern of steadily increasing damages and losses that are primarily due to three key factors: (1) significant growth in earthquake-prone urban areas, (2) vulnerability of the older building stock, including poorly engineered non-ductile concrete buildings, and (3) an increased interdependency in terms of supply and demand for the businesses that operate among different parts of the world. In the United States, earthquake risk continues to grow with increased exposure of population and development even though the earthquake hazard has remained relatively stable except for the regions of induced seismic activity. Understanding the seismic hazard requires studying earthquake characteristics and locales in which they occur, while understanding the risk requires an assessment of the potential damage from earthquake shaking to the built environment and to the welfare of people—especially in high-risk areas. Estimating the varying degree of earthquake risk throughout the United States is critical for informed decision-making on mitigation policies, priorities, strategies, and funding levels in the

Losses to single-family housing from ground motions in the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wesson, R.L.; Perkins, D.M.; Leyendecker, E.V.; Roth, R.J.; Petersen, M.D.

2004-01-01

The distributions of insured losses to single-family housing following the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake for 234 ZIP codes can be satisfactorily modeled with gamma distributions. Regressions of the parameters in the gamma distribution on estimates of ground motion, derived from ShakeMap estimates or from interpolated observations, provide a basis for developing curves of conditional probability of loss given a ground motion. Comparison of the resulting estimates of aggregate loss with the actual aggregate loss gives satisfactory agreement for several different ground-motion parameters. Estimates of loss based on a deterministic spatial model of the earthquake ground motion, using standard attenuation relationships and NEHRP soil factors, give satisfactory results for some ground-motion parameters if the input ground motions are increased about one and one-half standard deviations above the median, reflecting the fact that the ground motions for the Northridge earthquake tended to be higher than the median ground motion for other earthquakes with similar magnitude. The results give promise for making estimates of insured losses to a similar building stock under future earthquake loading. ?? 2004, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

An Atlas of ShakeMaps and population exposure catalog for earthquake loss modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, T.I.; Wald, D.J.; Earle, P.S.; Marano, K.D.; Hotovec, A.J.; Lin, K.; Hearne, M.G.

2009-01-01

We present an Atlas of ShakeMaps and a catalog of human population exposures to moderate-to-strong ground shaking (EXPO-CAT) for recent historical earthquakes (1973-2007). The common purpose of the Atlas and exposure catalog is to calibrate earthquake loss models to be used in the US Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER). The full ShakeMap Atlas currently comprises over 5,600 earthquakes from January 1973 through December 2007, with almost 500 of these maps constrained-to varying degrees-by instrumental ground motions, macroseismic intensity data, community internet intensity observations, and published earthquake rupture models. The catalog of human exposures is derived using current PAGER methodologies. Exposure to discrete levels of shaking intensity is obtained by correlating Atlas ShakeMaps with a global population database. Combining this population exposure dataset with historical earthquake loss data, such as PAGER-CAT, provides a useful resource for calibrating loss methodologies against a systematically-derived set of ShakeMap hazard outputs. We illustrate two example uses for EXPO-CAT; (1) simple objective ranking of country vulnerability to earthquakes, and; (2) the influence of time-of-day on earthquake mortality. In general, we observe that countries in similar geographic regions with similar construction practices tend to cluster spatially in terms of relative vulnerability. We also find little quantitative evidence to suggest that time-of-day is a significant factor in earthquake mortality. Moreover, earthquake mortality appears to be more systematically linked to the population exposed to severe ground shaking (Modified Mercalli Intensity VIII+). Finally, equipped with the full Atlas of ShakeMaps, we merge each of these maps and find the maximum estimated peak ground acceleration at any grid point in the world for the past 35 years. We subsequently compare this "composite ShakeMap" with existing global

Estimating annualized earthquake losses for the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Bausch, Douglas; Chen, Rui; Bouabid, Jawhar; Seligson, Hope

2015-01-01

We make use of the most recent National Seismic Hazard Maps (the years 2008 and 2014 cycles), updated census data on population, and economic exposure estimates of general building stock to quantify annualized earthquake loss (AEL) for the conterminous United States. The AEL analyses were performed using the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Hazus software, which facilitated a systematic comparison of the influence of the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Maps in terms of annualized loss estimates in different parts of the country. The losses from an individual earthquake could easily exceed many tens of billions of dollars, and the long-term averaged value of losses from all earthquakes within the conterminous U.S. has been estimated to be a few billion dollars per year. This study estimated nationwide losses to be approximately $4.5 billion per year (in 2012$), roughly 80% of which can be attributed to the States of California, Oregon and Washington. We document the change in estimated AELs arising solely from the change in the assumed hazard map. The change from the 2008 map to the 2014 map results in a 10 to 20% reduction in AELs for the highly seismic States of the Western United States, whereas the reduction is even more significant for Central and Eastern United States.

Earthquake Loss Estimates in Near Real-Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wyss, Max; Wang, Rongjiang; Zschau, Jochen; Xia, Ye

2006-10-01

The usefulness to rescue teams of nearreal-time loss estimates after major earthquakes is advancing rapidly. The difference in the quality of data available in highly developed compared with developing countries dictates that different approaches be used to maximize mitigation efforts. In developed countries, extensive information from tax and insurance records, together with accurate census figures, furnish detailed data on the fragility of buildings and on the number of people at risk. For example, these data are exploited by the method to estimate losses used in the Hazards U.S. Multi-Hazard (HAZUSMH)software program (http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/). However, in developing countries, the population at risk is estimated from inferior data sources and the fragility of the building stock often is derived empirically, using past disastrous earthquakes for calibration [Wyss, 2004].

Impact of traumatic loss on post-traumatic spectrum symptoms in high school students after the L'Aquila 2009 earthquake in Italy.

PubMed

Dell'OSso, L; Carmassi, C; Massimetti, G; Conversano, C; Daneluzzo, E; Riccardi, I; Stratta, P; Rossi, A

2011-11-01

On April 6th 2009, the town of L'Aquila, Italy, was struck by an earthquake (6.3 on the Richter scale) that lead large parts of the town to be destroyed and the death of 309 people. Significant losses in the framework of earthquakes have been reported as a major risk factor for PTSD development. Aim of this study was to investigate post-traumatic spectrum symptoms in a sample of adolescents exposed to the L'Aquila 2009 earthquake 21 months earlier, with particular attention to the impact of loss. 475 students (203 women and 272 men), attending the last year of High School in L'Aquila, were assessed by: Trauma and Loss Spectrum-Self Report (TALS-SR) and Impact of Event Scale (IES). The presence of full and partial PTSD was also assessed. 72 students (15.2%) reported the loss of a close friend or relative in the framework of the earthquake. Full PTSD was reported by 146 (30.7%) students and partial PTSD by 149 (31.4%) students. There was a significant difference reported in PTSD between bereaved and non bereaved subjects. Significantly higher post-traumatic symptom levels were reported by bereaved subjects. The lack of information on the relationship with the deceased and the number of losses experienced, besides the use of self report instruments are the limitations of this study. Our results show high rates of post-traumatic spectrum symptoms in adolescents who survived the L'Aquila earthquake. Having experienced the loss of a close friend or a relative in the framework of the earthquake seems to be related to higher PTSD rates and more severe symptomatology. These results highlight the need to carefully explore adolescents exposed to a significant loss as consequence of an earthquake. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Debris flow susceptibility assessment after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Xuanmei; van Westen, Cees; Tang, Chenxiao; Tang, Chuan

2014-05-01

Due to a tremendous amount of loose material from landslides that occurred during the Wenchuan earthquake, the frequency and magnitude of debris flows have been immensely increased, causing many casualties and economic losses. This study attempts to assess the post-earthquake debris flow susceptibility based on catchment units in the Wenchuan county, one of the most severely damaged county by the earthquake. The post earthquake debris flow inventory was created by RS image interpretation and field survey. According to our knowledge to the field, several relevant factors were determined as indicators for post-earthquake debris flow occurrence, including the distance to fault surface rupture, peak ground acceleration (PGA), coseismic landslide density, rainfall data, internal relief, slope, drainage density, stream steepness index, existing mitigation works etc. These indicators were then used as inputs in a heuristic model that was developed by adapting the Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation (SMCE) method. The relative importance of the indicators was evaluated according to their contributions to the debris flow events that have occurred after the earthquake. The ultimate goal of this study is to estimate the relative likelihood of debris flow occurrence in each catchment, and use this result together with elements at risk and vulnerability information to assess the changing risk of the most susceptible catchment.

Uncertainties in Earthquake Loss Analysis: A Case Study From Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahdyiar, M.; Guin, J.

2005-12-01

Probabilistic earthquake hazard and loss analyses play important roles in many areas of risk management, including earthquake related public policy and insurance ratemaking. Rigorous loss estimation for portfolios of properties is difficult since there are various types of uncertainties in all aspects of modeling and analysis. It is the objective of this study to investigate the sensitivity of earthquake loss estimation to uncertainties in regional seismicity, earthquake source parameters, ground motions, and sites' spatial correlation on typical property portfolios in Southern California. Southern California is an attractive region for such a study because it has a large population concentration exposed to significant levels of seismic hazard. During the last decade, there have been several comprehensive studies of most regional faults and seismogenic sources. There have also been detailed studies on regional ground motion attenuations and regional and local site responses to ground motions. This information has been used by engineering seismologists to conduct regional seismic hazard and risk analysis on a routine basis. However, one of the more difficult tasks in such studies is the proper incorporation of uncertainties in the analysis. From the hazard side, there are uncertainties in the magnitudes, rates and mechanisms of the seismic sources and local site conditions and ground motion site amplifications. From the vulnerability side, there are considerable uncertainties in estimating the state of damage of buildings under different earthquake ground motions. From an analytical side, there are challenges in capturing the spatial correlation of ground motions and building damage, and integrating thousands of loss distribution curves with different degrees of correlation. In this paper we propose to address some of these issues by conducting loss analyses of a typical small portfolio in southern California, taking into consideration various source and ground

Resource loss, self-efficacy, and family support predict posttraumatic stress symptoms: a 3-year study of earthquake survivors.

PubMed

Warner, Lisa Marie; Gutiérrez-Doña, Benicio; Villegas Angulo, Maricela; Schwarzer, Ralf

2015-01-01

Social support and self-efficacy are regarded as coping resources that may facilitate readjustment after traumatic events. The 2009 Cinchona earthquake in Costa Rica serves as an example for such an event to study resources to prevent subsequent severity of posttraumatic stress symptoms. At Time 1 (1-6 months after the earthquake in 2009), N=200 survivors were interviewed, assessing resource loss, received family support, and posttraumatic stress response. At Time 2 in 2012, severity of posttraumatic stress symptoms and general self-efficacy beliefs were assessed. Regression analyses estimated the severity of posttraumatic stress symptoms accounted for by all variables. Moderator and mediator models were examined to understand the interplay of received family support and self-efficacy with posttraumatic stress symptoms. Baseline posttraumatic stress symptoms and resource loss (T1) accounted for significant but small amounts of the variance in the severity of posttraumatic stress symptoms (T2). The main effects of self-efficacy (T2) and social support (T1) were negligible, but social support buffered resource loss, indicating that only less supported survivors were affected by resource loss. Self-efficacy at T2 moderated the support-stress relationship, indicating that low levels of self-efficacy could be compensated by higher levels of family support. Receiving family support at T1 enabled survivors to feel self-efficacious, underlining the enabling hypothesis. Receiving social support from relatives shortly after an earthquake was found to be an important coping resource, as it alleviated the association between resource loss and the severity of posttraumatic stress response, compensated for deficits of self-efficacy, and enabled self-efficacy, which was in turn associated with more adaptive adjustment 3 years after the earthquake.

Improving PAGER's real-time earthquake casualty and loss estimation toolkit: a challenge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, K.S.; Wald, D.J.

2012-01-01

We describe the on-going developments of PAGER’s loss estimation models, and discuss value-added web content that can be generated related to exposure, damage and loss outputs for a variety of PAGER users. These developments include identifying vulnerable building types in any given area, estimating earthquake-induced damage and loss statistics by building type, and developing visualization aids that help locate areas of concern for improving post-earthquake response efforts. While detailed exposure and damage information is highly useful and desirable, significant improvements are still necessary in order to improve underlying building stock and vulnerability data at a global scale. Existing efforts with the GEM’s GED4GEM and GVC consortia will help achieve some of these objectives. This will benefit PAGER especially in regions where PAGER’s empirical model is less-well constrained; there, the semi-empirical and analytical models will provide robust estimates of damage and losses. Finally, we outline some of the challenges associated with rapid casualty and loss estimation that we experienced while responding to recent large earthquakes worldwide.

Errors in Seismic Hazard Assessment are Creating Huge Human Losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bela, J.

2015-12-01

The current practice of representing earthquake hazards to the public based upon their perceived likelihood or probability of occurrence is proven now by the global record of actual earthquakes to be not only erroneous and unreliable, but also too deadly! Earthquake occurrence is sporadic and therefore assumptions of earthquake frequency and return-period are both not only misleading, but also categorically false. More than 700,000 people have now lost their lives (2000-2011), wherein 11 of the World's Deadliest Earthquakes have occurred in locations where probability-based seismic hazard assessments had predicted only low seismic low hazard. Unless seismic hazard assessment and the setting of minimum earthquake design safety standards for buildings and bridges are based on a more realistic deterministic recognition of "what can happen" rather than on what mathematical models suggest is "most likely to happen" such future huge human losses can only be expected to continue! The actual earthquake events that did occur were at or near the maximum potential-size event that either already had occurred in the past; or were geologically known to be possible. Haiti's M7 earthquake, 2010 (with > 222,000 fatalities) meant the dead could not even be buried with dignity. Japan's catastrophic Tohoku earthquake, 2011; a M9 Megathrust earthquake, unleashed a tsunami that not only obliterated coastal communities along the northern Japanese coast, but also claimed > 20,000 lives. This tsunami flooded nuclear reactors at Fukushima, causing 4 explosions and 3 reactors to melt down. But while this history of huge human losses due to erroneous and misleading seismic hazard estimates, despite its wrenching pain, cannot be unlived; if faced with courage and a more realistic deterministic estimate of "what is possible", it need not be lived again. An objective testing of the results of global probability based seismic hazard maps against real occurrences has never been done by the

Earthquake Loss Scenarios in the Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wyss, M.; Gupta, S.; Rosset, P.; Chamlagain, D.

2017-12-01

We estimate quantitatively that in repeats of the 1555 and 1505 great Himalayan earthquakes the fatalities may range from 51K to 549K, the injured from 157K to 1,700K and the strongly affected population (Intensity≥VI) from 15 to 75 million, depending on the details of the assumed earthquake parameters. For up-dip ruptures in the stressed segments of the M7.8 Gorkha 2015, the M7.9 Subansiri 1947 and the M7.8 Kangra 1905 earthquakes, we estimate 62K, 100K and 200K fatalities, respectively. The numbers of strongly affected people we estimate as 8, 12, 33 million, in these cases respectively. These loss calculations are based on verifications of the QLARM algorithms and data set in the cases of the M7.8 Gorkha 2015, the M7.8 Kashmir 2005, the M6.6 Chamoli 1999, the M6.8 Uttarkashi 1991 and the M7.8 Kangra 1905 earthquakes. The requirement of verification that was fulfilled in these test cases was that the reported intensity field and the fatality count had to match approximately, using the known parameters of the earthquakes. The apparent attenuation factor was a free parameter and ranged within acceptable values. Numbers for population were adjusted for the years in question from the latest census. The hour of day was assumed to be at night with maximum occupation. The assumption that the upper half of the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) will rupture in companion earthquakes to historic earthquakes in the down-dip half is based on the observations of several meters of displacement in trenches across the MFT outcrop. Among mitigation measures awareness with training and adherence to construction codes rank highest. Retrofitting of schools and hospitals would save lives and prevent injuries. Preparation plans for helping millions of strongly affected people should be put in place. These mitigation efforts should focus on an approximately 7 km wide strip along the MFT on the up-thrown side because the strong motions are likely to be doubled. We emphasize that our estimates

Assessing Earthquake-Induced Tree Mortality in Temperate Forest Ecosystems: A Case Study from Wenchuan, China

DOE PAGES

Zeng, Hongcheng; Lu, Tao; Jenkins, Hillary; ...

2016-03-17

Earthquakes can produce significant tree mortality, and consequently affect regional carbon dynamics. Unfortunately, detailed studies quantifying the influence of earthquake on forest mortality are currently rare. The committed forest biomass carbon loss associated with the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China is assessed by a synthetic approach in this study that integrated field investigation, remote sensing analysis, empirical models and Monte Carlo simulation. The newly developed approach significantly improved the forest disturbance evaluation by quantitatively defining the earthquake impact boundary and detailed field survey to validate the mortality models. Based on our approach, a total biomass carbon of 10.9 Tg·C wasmore » lost in Wenchuan earthquake, which offset 0.23% of the living biomass carbon stock in Chinese forests. Tree mortality was highly clustered at epicenter, and declined rapidly with distance away from the fault zone. It is suggested that earthquakes represent a signif icant driver to forest carbon dynamics, and the earthquake-induced biomass carbon loss should be included in estimating forest carbon budgets.« less

Assessing Earthquake-Induced Tree Mortality in Temperate Forest Ecosystems: A Case Study from Wenchuan, China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zeng, Hongcheng; Lu, Tao; Jenkins, Hillary

Earthquakes can produce significant tree mortality, and consequently affect regional carbon dynamics. Unfortunately, detailed studies quantifying the influence of earthquake on forest mortality are currently rare. The committed forest biomass carbon loss associated with the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China is assessed by a synthetic approach in this study that integrated field investigation, remote sensing analysis, empirical models and Monte Carlo simulation. The newly developed approach significantly improved the forest disturbance evaluation by quantitatively defining the earthquake impact boundary and detailed field survey to validate the mortality models. Based on our approach, a total biomass carbon of 10.9 Tg·C wasmore » lost in Wenchuan earthquake, which offset 0.23% of the living biomass carbon stock in Chinese forests. Tree mortality was highly clustered at epicenter, and declined rapidly with distance away from the fault zone. It is suggested that earthquakes represent a signif icant driver to forest carbon dynamics, and the earthquake-induced biomass carbon loss should be included in estimating forest carbon budgets.« less

Comparing population exposure to multiple Washington earthquake scenarios for prioritizing loss estimation studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Schelling, John; Weaver, Craig S.

2014-01-01

Scenario-based, loss-estimation studies are useful for gauging potential societal impacts from earthquakes but can be challenging to undertake in areas with multiple scenarios and jurisdictions. We present a geospatial approach using various population data for comparing earthquake scenarios and jurisdictions to help emergency managers prioritize where to focus limited resources on data development and loss-estimation studies. Using 20 earthquake scenarios developed for the State of Washington (USA), we demonstrate how a population-exposure analysis across multiple jurisdictions based on Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) classes helps emergency managers understand and communicate where potential loss of life may be concentrated and where impacts may be more related to quality of life. Results indicate that certain well-known scenarios may directly impact the greatest number of people, whereas other, potentially lesser-known, scenarios impact fewer people but consequences could be more severe. The use of economic data to profile each jurisdiction’s workforce in earthquake hazard zones also provides additional insight on at-risk populations. This approach can serve as a first step in understanding societal impacts of earthquakes and helping practitioners to efficiently use their limited risk-reduction resources.

Building Inventory Database on the Urban Scale Using GIS for Earthquake Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaplan, O.; Avdan, U.; Guney, Y.; Helvaci, C.

2016-12-01

The majority of the existing buildings are not safe against earthquakes in most of the developing countries. Before a devastating earthquake, existing buildings need to be assessed and the vulnerable ones must be determined. Determining the seismic performance of existing buildings which is usually made with collecting the attributes of existing buildings, making the analysis and the necessary queries, and producing the result maps is very hard and complicated procedure that can be simplified with Geographic Information System (GIS). The aim of this study is to produce a building inventory database using GIS for assessing the earthquake risk of existing buildings. In this paper, a building inventory database for 310 buildings, located in Eskisehir, Turkey, was produced in order to assess the earthquake risk of the buildings. The results from this study show that 26% of the buildings have high earthquake risk, 33% of the buildings have medium earthquake risk and the 41% of the buildings have low earthquake risk. The produced building inventory database can be very useful especially for governments in dealing with the problem of determining seismically vulnerable buildings in the large existing building stocks. With the help of this kind of methods, determination of the buildings, which may collapse and cause life and property loss during a possible future earthquake, will be very quick, cheap and reliable.

Post-earthquake building safety assessments for the Canterbury Earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marshall, J.; Barnes, J.; Gould, N.; Jaiswal, K.; Lizundia, B.; Swanson, David A.; Turner, F.

2012-01-01

This paper explores the post-earthquake building assessment program that was utilized in Christchurch, New Zealand following the Canterbury Sequence of earthquakes beginning with the Magnitude (Mw.) 7.1 Darfield event in September 2010. The aftershocks or triggered events, two of which exceeded Mw 6.0, continued with events in February and June 2011 causing the greatest amount of damage. More than 70,000 building safety assessments were completed following the February event. The timeline and assessment procedures will be discussed including the use of rapid response teams, selection of indicator buildings to monitor damage following aftershocks, risk assessments for demolition of red-tagged buildings, the use of task forces to address management of the heavily damaged downtown area and the process of demolition. Through the post-event safety assessment program that occurred throughout the Canterbury Sequence of earthquakes, many important lessons can be learned that will benefit future response to natural hazards that have potential to damage structures.

Associations between economic loss, financial strain and the psychological status of Wenchuan earthquake survivors.

PubMed

Huang, Yunong; Wong, Hung; Tan, Ngoh Tiong

2015-10-01

This study examines the effects of economic loss on the life satisfaction and mental health of Wenchuan earthquake survivors. Economic loss is measured by earthquake impacts on the income and houses of the survivors. The correlation analysis shows that earthquake impact on income is significantly correlated with life satisfaction and depression. The regression analyses indicate that earthquake impact on income is indirectly associated with life satisfaction and depression through its effect on financial strain. The research highlights the importance of coping strategies in maintaining a balance between economic status and living demands for disaster survivors. © 2015 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2015.

Earthquake Damage Assessment Using Very High Resolution Satelliteimagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiroiu, L.; André, G.; Bahoken, F.; Guillande, R.

Various studies using satellite imagery were applied in the last years in order to assess natural hazard damages, most of them analyzing the case of floods, hurricanes or landslides. For the case of earthquakes, the medium or small spatial resolution data available in the recent past did not allow a reliable identification of damages, due to the size of the elements (e.g. buildings or other structures), too small compared with the pixel size. The recent progresses of remote sensing in terms of spatial resolution and data processing makes possible a reliable damage detection to the elements at risk. Remote sensing techniques applied to IKONOS (1 meter resolution) and IRS (5 meters resolution) imagery were used in order to evaluate seismic vulnerability and post earthquake damages. A fast estimation of losses was performed using a multidisciplinary approach based on earthquake engineering and geospatial analysis. The results, integrated into a GIS database, could be transferred via satellite networks to the rescue teams deployed on the affected zone, in order to better coordinate the emergency operations. The methodology was applied to the city of Bhuj and Anjar after the 2001 Gujarat (India) Earthquake.

Loss estimation in southeast Korea from a scenario earthquake using the deterministic method in HAZUS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, S.; Kim, K.; Suk, B.; Yoo, H.

2007-12-01

Strong ground motion attenuation relationship represents a comprehensive trend of ground shakings at sites with distances from the source, geology, local soil conditions, and others. It is necessary to develop an attenuation relationship with careful considerations of characteristics of the target area for reliable seismic hazard/risk assessments. In the study, observed ground motions from the January 2007 magnitude 4.9 Odaesan earthquake and the events occurring in the Gyeongsang provinces are compared with the previously proposed ground attenuation relationships in the Korean Peninsula to select most appropriate one. In the meantime, a few strong ground motion attenuation relationships are proposed and introduced in HAZUS, which have been designed for the Western United States and the Central and Eastern United States. The selected relationship from the ones for the Korean Peninsula has been compared with attenuation relationships available in HAZUS. Then, the attenuation relation for the Western United States proposed by Sadigh et al. (1997) for the Site Class B has been selected for this study. Reliability of the assessment will be improved by using an appropriate attenuation relation. It has been used for the earthquake loss estimation of the Gyeongju area located in southeast Korea using the deterministic method in HAZUS with a scenario earthquake (M=6.7). Our preliminary estimates show 15.6% damage of houses, shelter needs for about three thousands residents, and 75 life losses in the study area for the scenario events occurring at 2 A.M. Approximately 96% of hospitals will be in normal operation in 24 hours from the proposed event. Losses related to houses will be more than 114 million US dollars. Application of the improved methodology for loss estimation in Korea will help decision makers for planning disaster responses and hazard mitigation.

Earthquake impact scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wald, D.J.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Marano, K.D.; Bausch, D.

2011-01-01

With the advent of the USGS prompt assessment of global earthquakes for response (PAGER) system, which rapidly assesses earthquake impacts, U.S. and international earthquake responders are reconsidering their automatic alert and activation levels and response procedures. To help facilitate rapid and appropriate earthquake response, an Earthquake Impact Scale (EIS) is proposed on the basis of two complementary criteria. On the basis of the estimated cost of damage, one is most suitable for domestic events; the other, on the basis of estimated ranges of fatalities, is generally more appropriate for global events, particularly in developing countries. Simple thresholds, derived from the systematic analysis of past earthquake impact and associated response levels, are quite effective in communicating predicted impact and response needed after an event through alerts of green (little or no impact), yellow (regional impact and response), orange (national-scale impact and response), and red (international response). Corresponding fatality thresholds for yellow, orange, and red alert levels are 1, 100, and 1,000, respectively. For damage impact, yellow, orange, and red thresholds are triggered by estimated losses reaching $1M, $100M, and $1B, respectively. The rationale for a dual approach to earthquake alerting stems from the recognition that relatively high fatalities, injuries, and homelessness predominate in countries in which local building practices typically lend themselves to high collapse and casualty rates, and these impacts lend to prioritization for international response. In contrast, financial and overall societal impacts often trigger the level of response in regions or countries in which prevalent earthquake resistant construction practices greatly reduce building collapse and resulting fatalities. Any newly devised alert, whether economic- or casualty-based, should be intuitive and consistent with established lexicons and procedures. Useful alerts should

A simulation of Earthquake Loss Estimation in Southeastern Korea using HAZUS and the local site classification Map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, S.; Kim, K.

2013-12-01

Regionally varying seismic hazards can be estimated using an earthquake loss estimation system (e.g. HAZUS-MH). The estimations for actual earthquakes help federal and local authorities develop rapid, effective recovery measures. Estimates for scenario earthquakes help in designing a comprehensive earthquake hazard mitigation plan. Local site characteristics influence the ground motion. Although direct measurements are desirable to construct a site-amplification map, such data are expensive and time consuming to collect. Thus we derived a site classification map of the southern Korean Peninsula using geologic and geomorphologic data, which are readily available for the entire southern Korean Peninsula. Class B sites (mainly rock) are predominant in the area, although localized areas of softer soils are found along major rivers and seashores. The site classification map is compared with independent site classification studies to confirm our site classification map effectively represents the local behavior of site amplification during an earthquake. We then estimated the losses due to a magnitude 6.7 scenario earthquake in Gyeongju, southeastern Korea, with and without the site classification map. Significant differences in loss estimates were observed. The loss without the site classification map decreased without variation with increasing epicentral distance, while the loss with the site classification map varied from region to region, due to both the epicentral distance and local site effects. The major cause of the large loss expected in Gyeongju is the short epicentral distance. Pohang Nam-Gu is located farther from the earthquake source region. Nonetheless, the loss estimates in the remote city are as large as those in Gyeongju and are attributed to the site effect of soft soil found widely in the area.

Development of Tools for the Rapid Assessment of Landslide Potential in Areas Exposed to Intense Storms, Earthquakes, and Other Triggering Mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Highland, Lynn

2014-05-01

Landslides frequently occur in connection with other types of hazardous phenomena such as earthquake or volcanic activity and intense rainstorms. Strong shaking, for example, often triggers extensive landslides in mountainous areas, which can then complicate response and compound socio-economic impacts over shaking losses alone. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is exploring different ways to add secondary hazards to its Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, which has been developed to deliver rapid earthquake impact and loss assessments following significant global earthquakes. The PAGER team found that about 22 percent of earthquakes with fatalities have deaths due to secondary causes, and the percentage of economic losses they incur has not been widely studied, but is probably significant. The current approach for rapid assessment and reporting of the potential and distribution of secondary earthquake-induced landslides involves empirical models that consider ground acceleration, slope, and rock-strength. A complementary situational awareness tool being developed is a region-specific landslide database for the U.S. The latter will be able to define, in a narrative form, the landslide types (debris flows, rock avalanches, shallow versus deep) that generally occur in each area, along with the type of soils, geology and meteorological effects that could have a bearing on soil saturation, and thus susceptibility. When a seismic event occurs in the U.S. and the PAGER system generates web-based earthquake information, these landslide narratives will simultaneously be made available, which will help in the assessment of the nature of landslides in that particular region. This landslide profile database could also be applied to landslide events that are not triggered by earthquake shaking, in conjunction with National Weather Service Alerts and other landslide/debris-flow alerting systems. Currently, prototypes are being developed for both

Regional earthquake loss estimation in the Autonomous Province of Bolzano - South Tyrol (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huttenlau, Matthias; Winter, Benjamin

2013-04-01

Beside storm events geophysical events cause a majority of natural hazard losses on a global scale. However, in alpine regions with a moderate earthquake risk potential like in the study area and thereupon connected consequences on the collective memory this source of risk is often neglected in contrast to gravitational and hydrological hazards processes. In this context, the comparative analysis of potential disasters and emergencies on a national level in Switzerland (Katarisk study) has shown that earthquakes are the most serious source of risk in general. In order to estimate the potential losses of earthquake events for different return periods and loss dimensions of extreme events the following study was conducted in the Autonomous Province of Bolzano - South Tyrol (Italy). The applied methodology follows the generally accepted risk concept based on the risk components hazard, elements at risk and vulnerability, whereby risk is not defined holistically (direct, indirect, tangible and intangible) but with the risk category losses on buildings and inventory as a general risk proxy. The hazard analysis is based on a regional macroseismic scenario approach. Thereby, the settlement centre of each community (116 communities) is defined as potential epicentre. For each epicentre four different epicentral scenarios (return periods of 98, 475, 975 and 2475 years) are calculated based on the simple but approved and generally accepted attenuation law according to Sponheuer (1960). The relevant input parameters to calculate the epicentral scenarios are (i) the macroseismic intensity and (ii) the focal depth. The considered macroseismic intensities are based on a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of the Italian earthquake catalogue on a community level (Dipartimento della Protezione Civile). The relevant focal depth are considered as a mean within a defined buffer of the focal depths of the harmonized earthquake catalogues of Italy and Switzerland as well as

Building vulnerability and human loss assessment in different earthquake intensity and time: a case study of the University of the Philippines, Los Baños (UPLB) Campus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rusydy, I.; Faustino-Eslava, D. V.; Muksin, U.; Gallardo-Zafra, R.; Aguirre, J. J. C.; Bantayan, N. C.; Alam, L.; Dakey, S.

2017-02-01

Study on seismic hazard, building vulnerability and human loss assessment become substantial for building education institutions since the building are used by a lot of students, lecturers, researchers, and guests. The University of the Philippines, Los Banos (UPLB) located in an earthquake prone area. The earthquake could cause structural damage and injury of the UPLB community. We have conducted earthquake assessment in different magnitude and time to predict the posibility of ground shaking, building vulnerability and estimated the number of casualty of the UPLB community. The data preparation in this study includes the earthquake scenario modeling using Intensity Prediction Equations (IPEs) for shallow crustal shaking attenuation to produce intensity map of bedrock and surface. Earthquake model was generated from the segment IV and the segment X of the Valley Fault System (VFS). Building vulnerability of different type of building was calculated using fragility curve of the Philippines building. The population data for each building in various occupancy time, damage ratio, and injury ratio data were used to compute the number of casualties. The result reveals that earthquake model from the segment IV and the segment X of the VFS could generate earthquake intensity between 7.6 - 8.1 MMI in the UPLB campus. The 7.7 Mw earthquake (scenario I) from the segment IV could cause 32% - 51% damage of building and 6.5 Mw earthquake (scenario II) occurring in the segment X could cause 18% - 39% structural damage of UPLB buildings. If the earthquake occurs at 2 PM (day-time), it could injure 10.2% - 18.8% for the scenario I and could injure 7.2% - 15.6% of UPLB population in scenario II. The 5 Pm event, predicted will injure 5.1%-9.4% in the scenario I, and 3.6%-7.8% in scenario II. A nighttime event (2 Am) cause injury to students and guests who stay in dormitories. The earthquake is predicted to injure 13 - 66 students and guests in the scenario I and 9 - 47 people in the

A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davies, Gareth; Griffin, Jonathan; Lovholt, Finn; Glimsdal, Sylfest; Harbitz, Carl; Thio, Hong Kie; Lorito, Stefano; Basili, Roberto; Selva, Jacopo; Geist, Eric L.; Baptista, Maria Ana

2017-01-01

Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.

Are seismic hazard assessment errors and earthquake surprises unavoidable?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir

2013-04-01

Why earthquake occurrences bring us so many surprises? The answer seems evident if we review the relationships that are commonly used to assess seismic hazard. The time-span of physically reliable Seismic History is yet a small portion of a rupture recurrence cycle at an earthquake-prone site, which makes premature any kind of reliable probabilistic statements about narrowly localized seismic hazard. Moreover, seismic evidences accumulated to-date demonstrate clearly that most of the empirical relations commonly accepted in the early history of instrumental seismology can be proved erroneous when testing statistical significance is applied. Seismic events, including mega-earthquakes, cluster displaying behaviors that are far from independent or periodic. Their distribution in space is possibly fractal, definitely, far from uniform even in a single segment of a fault zone. Such a situation contradicts generally accepted assumptions used for analytically tractable or computer simulations and complicates design of reliable methodologies for realistic earthquake hazard assessment, as well as search and definition of precursory behaviors to be used for forecast/prediction purposes. As a result, the conclusions drawn from such simulations and analyses can MISLEAD TO SCIENTIFICALLY GROUNDLESS APPLICATION, which is unwise and extremely dangerous in assessing expected societal risks and losses. For example, a systematic comparison of the GSHAP peak ground acceleration estimates with those related to actual strong earthquakes, unfortunately, discloses gross inadequacy of this "probabilistic" product, which appears UNACCEPTABLE FOR ANY KIND OF RESPONSIBLE SEISMIC RISK EVALUATION AND KNOWLEDGEABLE DISASTER PREVENTION. The self-evident shortcomings and failures of GSHAP appeals to all earthquake scientists and engineers for an urgent revision of the global seismic hazard maps from the first principles including background methodologies involved, such that there becomes: (a) a

Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation for Tbilisi City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsereteli, Nino; Alania, Victor; Varazanashvili, Otar; Gugeshashvili, Tengiz; Arabidze, Vakhtang; Arevadze, Nika; Tsereteli, Emili; Gaphrindashvili, Giorgi; Gventcadze, Alexander; Goguadze, Nino; Vephkhvadze, Sophio

2013-04-01

The proper assessment of seismic risk is of crucial importance for society protection and city sustainable economic development, as it is the essential part to seismic hazard reduction. Estimation of seismic risk and losses is complicated tasks. There is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard, local site effects, inventory on elements at risk, infrastructure vulnerability, especially for developing countries. Lately great efforts was done in the frame of EMME (earthquake Model for Middle East Region) project, where in the work packages WP1, WP2 , WP3 and WP4 where improved gaps related to seismic hazard assessment and vulnerability analysis. Finely in the frame of work package wp5 "City Scenario" additional work to this direction and detail investigation of local site conditions, active fault (3D) beneath Tbilisi were done. For estimation economic losses the algorithm was prepared taking into account obtained inventory. The long term usage of building is very complex. It relates to the reliability and durability of buildings. The long term usage and durability of a building is determined by the concept of depreciation. Depreciation of an entire building is calculated by summing the products of individual construction unit' depreciation rates and the corresponding value of these units within the building. This method of calculation is based on an assumption that depreciation is proportional to the building's (constructions) useful life. We used this methodology to create a matrix, which provides a way to evaluate the depreciation rates of buildings with different type and construction period and to determine their corresponding value. Finally loss was estimated resulting from shaking 10%, 5% and 2% exceedance probability in 50 years. Loss resulting from scenario earthquake (earthquake with possible maximum magnitude) also where estimated.

PAGER - Rapid Assessment of an Earthquake's Impact

USGS Publications Warehouse

Earle, Paul S.; Wald, David J.

2007-01-01

PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response) is an automated system to rapidly assess the number of people and regions exposed to severe shaking by an earthquake, and inform emergency responders, government agencies, and the media to the scope of the potential disaster. PAGER monitors the U.S. Geological Survey?s near real-time U.S. and global earthquake detections and automatically identifies events that are of societal importance, well in advance of ground-truth or news accounts.

Future Earth: Reducing Loss By Automating Response to Earthquake Shaking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, R. M.

2014-12-01

Earthquakes pose a significant threat to society in the U.S. and around the world. The risk is easily forgotten given the infrequent recurrence of major damaging events, yet the likelihood of a major earthquake in California in the next 30 years is greater than 99%. As our societal infrastructure becomes ever more interconnected, the potential impacts of these future events are difficult to predict. Yet, the same inter-connected infrastructure also allows us to rapidly detect earthquakes as they begin, and provide seconds, tens or seconds, or a few minutes warning. A demonstration earthquake early warning system is now operating in California and is being expanded to the west coast (www.ShakeAlert.org). In recent earthquakes in the Los Angeles region, alerts were generated that could have provided warning to the vast majority of Los Angelinos who experienced the shaking. Efforts are underway to build a public system. Smartphone technology will be used not only to issue that alerts, but could also be used to collect data, and improve the warnings. The MyShake project at UC Berkeley is currently testing an app that attempts to turn millions of smartphones into earthquake-detectors. As our development of the technology continues, we can anticipate ever-more automated response to earthquake alerts. Already, the BART system in the San Francisco Bay Area automatically stops trains based on the alerts. In the future, elevators will stop, machinery will pause, hazardous materials will be isolated, and self-driving cars will pull-over to the side of the road. In this presentation we will review the current status of the earthquake early warning system in the US. We will illustrate how smartphones can contribute to the system. Finally, we will review applications of the information to reduce future losses.

Development of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wald, D.J.; Earle, P.S.; Allen, T.I.; Jaiswal, K.; Porter, K.; Hearne, M.

2008-01-01

The Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) System plays a primary alerting role for global earthquake disasters as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) response protocol. We provide an overview of the PAGER system, both of its current capabilities and our ongoing research and development. PAGER monitors the USGS’s near real-time U.S. and global earthquake origins and automatically identifies events that are of societal importance, well in advance of ground-truth or news accounts. Current PAGER notifications and Web pages estimate the population exposed to each seismic intensity level. In addition to being a useful indicator of potential impact, PAGER’s intensity/exposure display provides a new standard in the dissemination of rapid earthquake information. We are currently developing and testing a more comprehensive alert system that will include casualty estimates. This is motivated by the idea that an estimated range of possible number of deaths will aid in decisions regarding humanitarian response. Underlying the PAGER exposure and loss models are global earthquake ShakeMap shaking estimates, constrained as quickly as possible by finite-fault modeling and observed ground motions and intensities, when available. Loss modeling is being developed comprehensively with a suite of candidate models that range from fully empirical to largely analytical approaches. Which of these models is most appropriate for use in a particular earthquake depends on how much is known about local building stocks and their vulnerabilities. A first-order country-specific global building inventory has been developed, as have corresponding vulnerability functions. For calibrating PAGER loss models, we have systematically generated an Atlas of 5,000 ShakeMaps for significant global earthquakes during the last 36 years. For many of these, auxiliary earthquake source and shaking intensity data are also available. Refinements to the loss models are ongoing

A stochastic risk assessment for Eastern Europe and Central Asian countries for earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniell, James; Schaefer, Andreas; Toro, Joaquin; Murnane, Rick; Tijssen, Annegien; Simpson, Alanna; Saito, Keiko; Winsemius, Hessel; Ward, Philip

2015-04-01

This systematic assessment of earthquake risk for 33 countries in the ECA region was motivated by the interest of the World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) in supporting Disaster Risk Management (DRM) efforts. They envisaged an exposure-based analysis that looked at the potential economic and/or social exposure of the populations of various countries to earthquake risk. Using a stochastic earthquake hazard model and historical catalogues, a unified earthquake catalogue was created for the 33 countries. A combined fault and background source model was created using data from many authors. The maximum magnitude and seismotectonic source zone discretization was undertaken using logic tree approaches. Site effects were taken into account on the basis of local topography and tectonic regime. Two approaches were used to calculate local ground motion - intensity prediction equations for MMI and a combination of GMPEs for stable and active settings. A 1km grid was used for analysis with aggregations of exposure quantified in terms of GDP and capital stock using disaggregated provincial analysis from CATDAT, as well as population data from Deltares. Vulnerability functions were calculated using socio-economic empirical functions derived by Daniell (2014) for the countries taking into account historical losses, seismic resistant code implementation and building typologies in each country. PML curves were created for each province in the 33 nations, through 3 methods; the 1st using direct historical values via the CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database; the 2nd using normalization procedures in order to provide a quick estimate of the historical record quantified in today's terms filling in gaps; and the 3rd being a traditional stochastic modelling approach over a period of 10,000 years taking all uncertainties into account. SSP projections of growth from the OECD were used to quantify the risk in 2010, 2030 and 2080 in order to examine

Turkish Compulsory Earthquake Insurance and "Istanbul Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durukal, E.; Sesetyan, K.; Erdik, M.

2009-04-01

The city of Istanbul will likely experience substantial direct and indirect losses as a result of a future large (M=7+) earthquake with an annual probability of occurrence of about 2%. This paper dwells on the expected building losses in terms of probable maximum and average annualized losses and discusses the results from the perspective of the compulsory earthquake insurance scheme operational in the country. The TCIP system is essentially designed to operate in Turkey with sufficient penetration to enable the accumulation of funds in the pool. Today, with only 20% national penetration, and about approximately one-half of all policies in highly earthquake prone areas (one-third in Istanbul) the system exhibits signs of adverse selection, inadequate premium structure and insufficient funding. Our findings indicate that the national compulsory earthquake insurance pool in Turkey will face difficulties in covering incurring building losses in Istanbul in the occurrence of a large earthquake. The annualized earthquake losses in Istanbul are between 140-300 million. Even if we assume that the deductible is raised to 15%, the earthquake losses that need to be paid after a large earthquake in Istanbul will be at about 2.5 Billion, somewhat above the current capacity of the TCIP. Thus, a modification to the system for the insured in Istanbul (or Marmara region) is necessary. This may mean an increase in the premia and deductible rates, purchase of larger re-insurance covers and development of a claim processing system. Also, to avoid adverse selection, the penetration rates elsewhere in Turkey need to be increased substantially. A better model would be introduction of parametric insurance for Istanbul. By such a model the losses will not be indemnified, however will be directly calculated on the basis of indexed ground motion levels and damages. The immediate improvement of a parametric insurance model over the existing one will be the elimination of the claim processing

An Account of Preliminary Landslide Damage and Losses Resulting from the February 28, 2001, Nisqually, Washington, Earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Highland, Lynn M.

2003-01-01

The February 28, 2001, Nisqually, Washington, earthquake (Mw = 6.8) damaged an area of the northwestern United States that previously experienced two major historical earthquakes, in 1949 and in 1965. Preliminary estimates of direct monetary losses from damage due to earthquake-induced landslides is approximately $34.3 million. However, this figure does not include costs from damages to the elevated portion of the Alaskan Way Viaduct, a major highway through downtown Seattle, Washington that will be repaired or rebuilt, depending on the future decision of local and state authorities. There is much debate as to the cause of the damage to this viaduct with evaluations of cause ranging from earthquake shaking and liquefaction to lateral spreading to a combination of these effects. If the viaduct is included in the costs, the losses increase to $500+ million (if it is repaired) or to more than $1+ billion (if it is replaced). Preliminary estimate of losses due to all causes of earthquake damage is approximately $2 billion, which includes temporary repairs to the Alaskan Way Viaduct. These preliminary dollar figures will no doubt increase when plans and decisions regarding the Viaduct are completed.

Comparative risk assessments for the city of Pointe-à-Pitre (French West Indies): earthquakes and storm surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reveillere, A. R.; Bertil, D. B.; Douglas, J. D.; Grisanti, L. G.; Lecacheux, S. L.; Monfort, D. M.; Modaressi, H. M.; Müller, H. M.; Rohmer, J. R.; Sedan, O. S.

2012-04-01

In France, risk assessments for natural hazards are usually carried out separately and decision makers lack comprehensive information. Moreover, since the cause of the hazard (e.g. meteorological, geological) and the physical phenomenon that causes damage (e.g. inundation, ground shaking) may be fundamentally different, the quantitative comparison of single risk assessments that were not conducted in a compatible framework is not straightforward. Comprehensive comparative risk assessments exist in a few other countries. For instance, the Risk Map Germany project has developed and applied a methodology for quantitatively comparing the risk of relevant natural hazards at various scales (city, state) in Germany. The present on-going work applies a similar methodology to the Pointe-à-Pitre urban area, which represents more than half of the population of Guadeloupe, an overseas region in the French West Indies. Relevant hazards as well as hazard intensity levels differ from continental Europe, which will lead to different conclusions. French West Indies are prone to a large number of hazards, among which hurricanes, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes dominate. Hurricanes cause damage through three phenomena: wind, heavy rainfall and storm surge, the latter having had a preeminent role during the largest historical event in 1928. Seismic risk is characterized by many induced phenomena, among which earthquake shocks dominate. This study proposes a comparison of earthquake and cyclonic storm surge risks. Losses corresponding to hazard intensities having the same probability of occurrence are calculated. They are quantified in a common loss unit, chosen to be the direct economic losses. Intangible or indirect losses are not considered. The methodology therefore relies on (i) a probabilistic hazard assessment, (ii) a loss ratio estimation for the exposed elements and (iii) an economic estimation of these assets. Storm surge hazard assessment is based on the selection of

Considering potential seismic sources in earthquake hazard assessment for Northern Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdollahzadeh, Gholamreza; Sazjini, Mohammad; Shahaky, Mohsen; Tajrishi, Fatemeh Zahedi; Khanmohammadi, Leila

2014-07-01

Located on the Alpine-Himalayan earthquake belt, Iran is one of the seismically active regions of the world. Northern Iran, south of Caspian Basin, a hazardous subduction zone, is a densely populated and developing area of the country. Historical and instrumental documented seismicity indicates the occurrence of severe earthquakes leading to many deaths and large losses in the region. With growth of seismological and tectonic data, updated seismic hazard assessment is a worthwhile issue in emergency management programs and long-term developing plans in urban and rural areas of this region. In the present study, being armed with up-to-date information required for seismic hazard assessment including geological data and active tectonic setting for thorough investigation of the active and potential seismogenic sources, and historical and instrumental events for compiling the earthquake catalogue, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is carried out for the region using three recent ground motion prediction equations. The logic tree method is utilized to capture epistemic uncertainty of the seismic hazard assessment in delineation of the seismic sources and selection of attenuation relations. The results are compared to a recent practice in code-prescribed seismic hazard of the region and are discussed in detail to explore their variation in each branch of logic tree approach. Also, seismic hazard maps of peak ground acceleration in rock site for 475- and 2,475-year return periods are provided for the region.

Loss estimates for a Puente Hills blind-thrust earthquake in Los Angeles, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, E.H.; Seligson, H.A.; Gupta, N.; Gupta, V.; Jordan, T.H.; Campbell, K.W.

2005-01-01

Based on OpenSHA and HAZUS-MH, we present loss estimates for an earthquake rupture on the recently identified Puente Hills blind-thrust fault beneath Los Angeles. Given a range of possible magnitudes and ground motion models, and presuming a full fault rupture, we estimate the total economic loss to be between $82 and $252 billion. This range is not only considerably higher than a previous estimate of $69 billion, but also implies the event would be the costliest disaster in U.S. history. The analysis has also provided the following predictions: 3,000-18,000 fatalities, 142,000-735,000 displaced households, 42,000-211,000 in need of short-term public shelter, and 30,000-99,000 tons of debris generated. Finally, we show that the choice of ground motion model can be more influential than the earthquake magnitude, and that reducing this epistemic uncertainty (e.g., via model improvement and/or rejection) could reduce the uncertainty of the loss estimates by up to a factor of two. We note that a full Puente Hills fault rupture is a rare event (once every ???3,000 years), and that other seismic sources pose significant risk as well. ?? 2005, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Earthquake hazard assessment after Mexico (1985).

PubMed

Degg, M R

1989-09-01

The 1985 Mexican earthquake ranks foremost amongst the major earthquake disasters of the twentieth century. One of the few positive aspects of the disaster is that it provided massive quantities of data that would otherwise have been unobtainable. Every opportunity should be taken to incorporate the findings from these data in earthquake hazard assessments. The purpose of this paper is to provide a succinct summary of some of the more important lessons from Mexico. It stems from detailed field investigations, and subsequent analyses, conducted by the author on the behalf of reinsurance companies.

A Rapid Public Health Needs Assessment Framework for after Major Earthquakes Using High-Resolution Satellite Imagery.

PubMed

Zhao, Jian; Ding, Fan; Wang, Zhe; Ren, Jinghuan; Zhao, Jing; Wang, Yeping; Tang, Xuefeng; Wang, Yong; Yao, Jianyi; Li, Qun

2018-05-30

Background : Earthquakes causing significant damage have occurred frequently in China, producing enormous health losses, damage to the environment and public health issues. Timely public health response is crucial to reduce mortality and morbidity and promote overall effectiveness of rescue efforts after a major earthquake. Methods : A rapid assessment framework was established based on GIS technology and high-resolution remote sensing images. A two-step casualties and injures estimation method was developed to evaluate health loss with great rapidity. Historical data and health resources information was reviewed to evaluate the damage condition of medical resources and public health issues. Results : The casualties and injures are estimated within a few hours after an earthquake. For the Wenchuan earthquake, which killed about 96,000 people and injured about 288,000, the estimation accuracy is about 77%. 242/294 (82.3%) of the medical existing institutions were severely damaged. About 40,000 tons of safe drinking water was needed every day to ensure basic living needs. The risk of water-borne and foodborne disease, respiratory and close contact transmission disease is high. For natural foci diseases, the high-risk area of schistosomiasis was mapped in Lushan County as an example. Finally, temporary settlements for victims of earthquake were mapped. Conclusions : High resolution Earth observation technology can provide a scientific basis for public health emergency management in the major disasters field, which will be of great significance in helping policy makers effectively improve health service ability and public health emergency management in prevention and control of infectious diseases and risk assessment.

Communicating Earthquake Preparedness: The Influence of Induced Mood, Perceived Risk, and Gain or Loss Frames on Homeowners' Attitudes Toward General Precautionary Measures for Earthquakes.

PubMed

Marti, Michèle; Stauffacher, Michael; Matthes, Jörg; Wiemer, Stefan

2018-04-01

Despite global efforts to reduce seismic risk, actual preparedness levels remain universally low. Although earthquake-resistant building design is the most efficient way to decrease potential losses, its application is not a legal requirement across all earthquake-prone countries and even if, often not strictly enforced. Risk communication encouraging homeowners to take precautionary measures is therefore an important means to enhance a country's earthquake resilience. Our study illustrates that specific interactions of mood, perceived risk, and frame type significantly affect homeowners' attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes. The interdependencies of the variables mood, risk information, and frame type were tested in an experimental 2 × 2 × 2 design (N = 156). Only in combination and not on their own, these variables effectively influence attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes. The control variables gender, "trait anxiety" index, and alteration of perceived risk adjust the effect. Overall, the group with the strongest attitudes toward general precautionary actions for earthquakes are homeowners with induced negative mood who process high-risk information and gain-framed messages. However, the conditions comprising induced negative mood, low-risk information and loss-frame and induced positive mood, low-risk information and gain-framed messages both also significantly influence homeowners' attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes. These results mostly confirm previous findings in the field of health communication. For practitioners, our study emphasizes that carefully compiled communication measures are a powerful means to encourage precautionary attitudes among homeowners, especially for those with an elevated perceived risk. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Application of Remote Sensing in Building Damages Assessment after Moderate and Strong Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Y.; Zhang, J.; Dou, A.

2003-04-01

- Earthquake is a main natural disaster in modern society. However, we still cannot predict the time and place of its occurrence accurately. Then it is of much importance to survey the damages information when an earthquake occurs, which can help us to mitigate losses and implement fast damage evaluation. In this paper, we use remote sensing techniques for our purposes. Remotely sensed satellite images often view a large scale of land at a time. There are several kinds of satellite images, which of different spatial and spectral resolutions. Landsat-4/5 TM sensor can view ground at 30m resolution, while Landsat-7 ETM Plus has a resolution of 15m in panchromatic waveband. SPOT satellite can provide images with higher resolutions. Those images obtained pre- and post-earthquake can help us greatly in identifying damages of moderate and large-size buildings. In this paper, we bring forward a method to implement quick damages assessment by analyzing both pre- and post-earthquake satellite images. First, those images are geographically registered together with low RMS (Root Mean Square) error. Then, we clip out residential areas by overlaying images with existing vector layers through Geographic Information System (GIS) software. We present a new change detection algorithm to quantitatively identify damages degree. An empirical or semi-empirical model is then established by analyzing the real damage degree and changes of pixel values of the same ground objects. Experimental result shows that there is a good linear relationship between changes of pixel values and ground damages, which proves the potentials of remote sensing in post-quake fast damage assessment. Keywords: Damages Assessment, Earthquake Hazard, Remote Sensing

Urban MEMS based seismic network for post-earthquakes rapid disaster assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Alessandro, Antonino; Luzio, Dario; D'Anna, Giuseppe

2014-05-01

Life losses following disastrous earthquake depends mainly by the building vulnerability, intensity of shaking and timeliness of rescue operations. In recent decades, the increase in population and industrial density has significantly increased the exposure to earthquakes of urban areas. The potential impact of a strong earthquake on a town center can be reduced by timely and correct actions of the emergency management centers. A real time urban seismic network can drastically reduce casualties immediately following a strong earthquake, by timely providing information about the distribution of the ground shaking level. Emergency management centers, with functions in the immediate post-earthquake period, could be use this information to allocate and prioritize resources to minimize loss of human life. However, due to the high charges of the seismological instrumentation, the realization of an urban seismic network, which may allow reducing the rate of fatalities, has not been achieved. Recent technological developments in MEMS (Micro Electro-Mechanical Systems) technology could allow today the realization of a high-density urban seismic network for post-earthquakes rapid disaster assessment, suitable for the earthquake effects mitigation. In the 1990s, MEMS accelerometers revolutionized the automotive-airbag system industry and are today widely used in laptops, games controllers and mobile phones. Due to their great commercial successes, the research into and development of MEMS accelerometers are actively pursued around the world. Nowadays, the sensitivity and dynamics of these sensors are such to allow accurate recording of earthquakes with moderate to strong magnitude. Due to their low cost and small size, the MEMS accelerometers may be employed for the realization of high-density seismic networks. The MEMS accelerometers could be installed inside sensitive places (high vulnerability and exposure), such as schools, hospitals, public buildings and places of

USGS Training in Afghanistan: Modern Earthquake Hazards Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medlin, J. D.; Garthwaite, M.; Holzer, T.; McGarr, A.; Bohannon, R.; Bergen, K.; Vincent, T.

2007-05-01

Afghanistan is located in a tectonically active region where ongoing deformation has generated rugged mountainous terrain, and where large earthquakes occur frequently. These earthquakes can present a significant hazard, not only from strong ground shaking, but also from liquefaction and extensive land sliding. The magnitude 6.1 earthquake of March 25, 2002 highlighted the vulnerability of Afghanistan to such hazards, and resulted in over 1000 fatalities. The USGS has provided the first of a series of Earth Science training courses to the Afghan Geological Survey (AGS). This course was concerned with modern earthquake hazard assessments, and is an integral part of a larger USGS effort to provide a comprehensive seismic-hazard assessment for Afghanistan. Funding for these courses is provided by the US Agency for International Development Afghanistan Reconstruction Program. The particular focus of this training course, held December 2-6, 2006 in Kabul, was on providing a background in the seismological and geological methods relevant to preparing for future earthquakes. Topics included identifying active faults, modern tectonic theory, geotechnical measurements of near-surface materials, and strong-motion seismology. With this background, participants may now be expected to educate other members of the community and be actively involved in earthquake hazard assessments themselves. The December, 2006, training course was taught by four lecturers, with all lectures and slides being presented in English and translated into Dari. Copies of the lectures were provided to the students in both hardcopy and digital formats. Class participants included many of the section leaders from within the AGS who have backgrounds in geology, geophysics, and engineering. Two additional training sessions are planned for 2007, the first entitled "Modern Concepts in Geology and Mineral Resource Assessments," and the second entitled "Applied Geophysics for Mineral Resource Assessments."

Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER): A System for Rapidly Determining the Impact of Earthquakes Worldwide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Earle, Paul S.; Wald, David J.; Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Allen, Trevor I.; Hearne, Michael G.; Marano, Kristin D.; Hotovec, Alicia J.; Fee, Jeremy

2009-01-01

Within minutes of a significant earthquake anywhere on the globe, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system assesses its potential societal impact. PAGER automatically estimates the number of people exposed to severe ground shaking and the shaking intensity at affected cities. Accompanying maps of the epicentral region show the population distribution and estimated ground-shaking intensity. A regionally specific comment describes the inferred vulnerability of the regional building inventory and, when available, lists recent nearby earthquakes and their effects. PAGER's results are posted on the USGS Earthquake Program Web site (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/), consolidated in a concise one-page report, and sent in near real-time to emergency responders, government agencies, and the media. Both rapid and accurate results are obtained through manual and automatic updates of PAGER's content in the hours following significant earthquakes. These updates incorporate the most recent estimates of earthquake location, magnitude, faulting geometry, and first-hand accounts of shaking. PAGER relies on a rich set of earthquake analysis and assessment tools operated by the USGS and contributing Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional networks. A focused research effort is underway to extend PAGER's near real-time capabilities beyond population exposure to quantitative estimates of fatalities, injuries, and displaced population.

Time-varying loss forecast for an earthquake scenario in Basel, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrmann, Marcus; Zechar, Jeremy D.; Wiemer, Stefan

2014-05-01

When an unexpected earthquake occurs, people suddenly want advice on how to cope with the situation. The 2009 L'Aquila quake highlighted the significance of public communication and pushed the usage of scientific methods to drive alternative risk mitigation strategies. For instance, van Stiphout et al. (2010) suggested a new approach for objective evacuation decisions on short-term: probabilistic risk forecasting combined with cost-benefit analysis. In the present work, we apply this approach to an earthquake sequence that simulated a repeat of the 1356 Basel earthquake, one of the most damaging events in Central Europe. A recent development to benefit society in case of an earthquake are probabilistic forecasts of the aftershock occurrence. But seismic risk delivers a more direct expression of the socio-economic impact. To forecast the seismic risk on short-term, we translate aftershock probabilities to time-varying seismic hazard and combine this with time-invariant loss estimation. Compared with van Stiphout et al. (2010), we use an advanced aftershock forecasting model and detailed settlement data to allow us spatial forecasts and settlement-specific decision-making. We quantify the risk forecast probabilistically in terms of human loss. For instance one minute after the M6.6 mainshock, the probability for an individual to die within the next 24 hours is 41 000 times higher than the long-term average; but the absolute value remains at minor 0.04 %. The final cost-benefit analysis adds value beyond a pure statistical approach: it provides objective statements that may justify evacuations. To deliver supportive information in a simple form, we propose a warning approach in terms of alarm levels. Our results do not justify evacuations prior to the M6.6 mainshock, but in certain districts afterwards. The ability to forecast the short-term seismic risk at any time-and with sufficient data anywhere-is the first step of personal decision-making and raising risk

Rapid estimation of the economic consequences of global earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, operational since mid 2007, rapidly estimates the most affected locations and the population exposure at different levels of shaking intensities. The PAGER system has significantly improved the way aid agencies determine the scale of response needed in the aftermath of an earthquake. For example, the PAGER exposure estimates provided reasonably accurate assessments of the scale and spatial extent of the damage and losses following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) in China, the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (Mw 6.3) in Italy, the 2010 Haiti earthquake (Mw 7.0), and the 2010 Chile earthquake (Mw 8.8). Nevertheless, some engineering and seismological expertise is often required to digest PAGER's exposure estimate and turn it into estimated fatalities and economic losses. This has been the focus of PAGER's most recent development. With the new loss-estimation component of the PAGER system it is now possible to produce rapid estimation of expected fatalities for global earthquakes (Jaiswal and others, 2009). While an estimate of earthquake fatalities is a fundamental indicator of potential human consequences in developing countries (for example, Iran, Pakistan, Haiti, Peru, and many others), economic consequences often drive the responses in much of the developed world (for example, New Zealand, the United States, and Chile), where the improved structural behavior of seismically resistant buildings significantly reduces earthquake casualties. Rapid availability of estimates of both fatalities and economic losses can be a valuable resource. The total time needed to determine the actual scope of an earthquake disaster and to respond effectively varies from country to country. It can take days or sometimes weeks before the damage and consequences of a disaster can be understood both socially and economically. The objective of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system is

Annualized earthquake loss estimates for California and their sensitivity to site amplification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, Rui; Jaiswal, Kishor; Bausch, D; Seligson, H; Wills, C.J.

2016-01-01

Input datasets for annualized earthquake loss (AEL) estimation for California were updated recently by the scientific community, and include the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), site‐response model, and estimates of shear‐wave velocity. Additionally, the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s loss estimation tool, Hazus, was updated to include the most recent census and economic exposure data. These enhancements necessitated a revisit to our previous AEL estimates and a study of the sensitivity of AEL estimates subjected to alternate inputs for site amplification. The NSHM ground motions for a uniform site condition are modified to account for the effect of local near‐surface geology. The site conditions are approximated in three ways: (1) by VS30 (time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity in the upper 30 m) value obtained from a geology‐ and topography‐based map consisting of 15 VS30 groups, (2) by site classes categorized according to National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) site classification, and (3) by a uniform NEHRP site class D. In case 1, ground motions are amplified using the Seyhan and Stewart (2014) semiempirical nonlinear amplification model. In cases 2 and 3, ground motions are amplified using the 2014 version of the NEHRP site amplification factors, which are also based on the Seyhan and Stewart model but are approximated to facilitate their use for building code applications. Estimated AELs are presented at multiple resolutions, starting with the state level assessment and followed by detailed assessments for counties, metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), and cities. AEL estimate at the state level is ∼$3.7  billion, 70% of which is contributed from Los Angeles–Long Beach–Santa Ana, San Francisco–Oakland–Fremont, and Riverside–San Bernardino–Ontario MSAs. The statewide AEL estimate is insensitive to alternate assumptions of site amplification. However, we note significant differences in AEL estimates

Knowledge base about earthquakes as a tool to minimize strong events consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frolova, Nina; Bonnin, Jean; Larionov, Valery; Ugarov, Alexander; Kijko, Andrzej

2017-04-01

The paper describes the structure and content of the knowledge base on physical and socio-economical consequences of damaging earthquakes, which may be used for calibration of near real-time loss assessment systems based on simulation models for shaking intensity, damage to buildings and casualties estimates. Such calibration allows to compensate some factors which influence on reliability of expected damage and loss assessment in "emergency" mode. The knowledge base contains the description of past earthquakes' consequences for the area under study. It also includes the current distribution of built environment and population at the time of event occurrence. Computer simulation of the recorded in knowledge base events allow to determine the sets of regional calibration coefficients, including rating of seismological surveys, peculiarities of shaking intensity attenuation and changes in building stock and population distribution, in order to provide minimum error of damaging earthquakes loss estimations in "emergency" mode. References 1. Larionov, V., Frolova, N: Peculiarities of seismic vulnerability estimations. In: Natural Hazards in Russia, volume 6: Natural Risks Assessment and Management, Publishing House "Kruk", Moscow, 120-131, 2003. 2. Frolova, N., Larionov, V., Bonnin, J.: Data Bases Used In Worlwide Systems For Earthquake Loss Estimation In Emergency Mode: Wenchuan Earthquake. In Proc. TIEMS2010 Conference, Beijing, China, 2010. 3. Frolova N. I., Larionov V. I., Bonnin J., Sushchev S. P., Ugarov A. N., Kozlov M. A. Loss Caused by Earthquakes: Rapid Estimates. Natural Hazards Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol.84, ISSN 0921-030, Nat Hazards DOI 10.1007/s11069-016-2653

The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2)

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2008-01-01

California?s 35 million people live among some of the most active earthquake faults in the United States. Public safety demands credible assessments of the earthquake hazard to maintain appropriate building codes for safe construction and earthquake insurance for loss protection. Seismic hazard analysis begins with an earthquake rupture forecast?a model of probabilities that earthquakes of specified magnitudes, locations, and faulting types will occur during a specified time interval. This report describes a new earthquake rupture forecast for California developed by the 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2007).

The key role of eyewitnesses in rapid earthquake impact assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bossu, Rémy; Steed, Robert; Mazet-Roux, Gilles; Roussel, Frédéric; Etivant, Caroline

2014-05-01

Uncertainties in rapid earthquake impact models are intrinsically large even when excluding potential indirect losses (fires, landslides, tsunami…). The reason is that they are based on several factors which are themselves difficult to constrain, such as the geographical distribution of shaking intensity, building type inventory and vulnerability functions. The difficulties can be illustrated by two boundary cases. For moderate (around M6) earthquakes, the size of potential damage zone and the epicentral location uncertainty share comparable dimension of about 10-15km. When such an earthquake strikes close to an urban area, like in 1999, in Athens (M5.9), earthquake location uncertainties alone can lead to dramatically different impact scenario. Furthermore, for moderate magnitude, the overall impact is often controlled by individual accidents, like in 2002 in Molise, Italy (M5.7), in Bingol, Turkey (M6.4) in 2003 or in Christchurch, New Zealand (M6.3) where respectively 23 out of 30, 84 out of 176 and 115 out of 185 of the causalities perished in a single building failure. Contrastingly, for major earthquakes (M>7), the point source approximation is not valid anymore, and impact assessment requires knowing exactly where the seismic rupture took place, whether it was unilateral, bilateral etc.… and this information is not readily available directly after the earthquake's occurrence. In-situ observations of actual impact provided by eyewitnesses can dramatically reduce impact models uncertainties. We will present the overall strategy developed at the EMSC which comprises of crowdsourcing and flashsourcing techniques, the development of citizen operated seismic networks, and the use of social networks to engage with eyewitnesses within minutes of an earthquake occurrence. For instance, testimonies are collected through online questionnaires available in 32 languages and automatically processed in maps of effects. Geo-located pictures are collected and then

Earthquakes trigger the loss of groundwater biodiversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galassi, Diana M. P.; Lombardo, Paola; Fiasca, Barbara; di Cioccio, Alessia; di Lorenzo, Tiziana; Petitta, Marco; di Carlo, Piero

2014-09-01

Earthquakes are among the most destructive natural events. The 6 April 2009, 6.3-Mw earthquake in L'Aquila (Italy) markedly altered the karstic Gran Sasso Aquifer (GSA) hydrogeology and geochemistry. The GSA groundwater invertebrate community is mainly comprised of small-bodied, colourless, blind microcrustaceans. We compared abiotic and biotic data from two pre-earthquake and one post-earthquake complete but non-contiguous hydrological years to investigate the effects of the 2009 earthquake on the dominant copepod component of the obligate groundwater fauna. Our results suggest that the massive earthquake-induced aquifer strain biotriggered a flushing of groundwater fauna, with a dramatic decrease in subterranean species abundance. Population turnover rates appeared to have crashed, no longer replenishing the long-standing communities from aquifer fractures, and the aquifer became almost totally deprived of animal life. Groundwater communities are notorious for their low resilience. Therefore, any major disturbance that negatively impacts survival or reproduction may lead to local extinction of species, most of them being the only survivors of phylogenetic lineages extinct at the Earth surface. Given the ecological key role played by the subterranean fauna as decomposers of organic matter and ``ecosystem engineers'', we urge more detailed, long-term studies on the effect of major disturbances to groundwater ecosystems.

Earthquakes trigger the loss of groundwater biodiversity.

PubMed

Galassi, Diana M P; Lombardo, Paola; Fiasca, Barbara; Di Cioccio, Alessia; Di Lorenzo, Tiziana; Petitta, Marco; Di Carlo, Piero

2014-09-03

Earthquakes are among the most destructive natural events. The 6 April 2009, 6.3-Mw earthquake in L'Aquila (Italy) markedly altered the karstic Gran Sasso Aquifer (GSA) hydrogeology and geochemistry. The GSA groundwater invertebrate community is mainly comprised of small-bodied, colourless, blind microcrustaceans. We compared abiotic and biotic data from two pre-earthquake and one post-earthquake complete but non-contiguous hydrological years to investigate the effects of the 2009 earthquake on the dominant copepod component of the obligate groundwater fauna. Our results suggest that the massive earthquake-induced aquifer strain biotriggered a flushing of groundwater fauna, with a dramatic decrease in subterranean species abundance. Population turnover rates appeared to have crashed, no longer replenishing the long-standing communities from aquifer fractures, and the aquifer became almost totally deprived of animal life. Groundwater communities are notorious for their low resilience. Therefore, any major disturbance that negatively impacts survival or reproduction may lead to local extinction of species, most of them being the only survivors of phylogenetic lineages extinct at the Earth surface. Given the ecological key role played by the subterranean fauna as decomposers of organic matter and "ecosystem engineers", we urge more detailed, long-term studies on the effect of major disturbances to groundwater ecosystems.

Earthquakes trigger the loss of groundwater biodiversity

PubMed Central

Galassi, Diana M. P.; Lombardo, Paola; Fiasca, Barbara; Di Cioccio, Alessia; Di Lorenzo, Tiziana; Petitta, Marco; Di Carlo, Piero

2014-01-01

Earthquakes are among the most destructive natural events. The 6 April 2009, 6.3-Mw earthquake in L'Aquila (Italy) markedly altered the karstic Gran Sasso Aquifer (GSA) hydrogeology and geochemistry. The GSA groundwater invertebrate community is mainly comprised of small-bodied, colourless, blind microcrustaceans. We compared abiotic and biotic data from two pre-earthquake and one post-earthquake complete but non-contiguous hydrological years to investigate the effects of the 2009 earthquake on the dominant copepod component of the obligate groundwater fauna. Our results suggest that the massive earthquake-induced aquifer strain biotriggered a flushing of groundwater fauna, with a dramatic decrease in subterranean species abundance. Population turnover rates appeared to have crashed, no longer replenishing the long-standing communities from aquifer fractures, and the aquifer became almost totally deprived of animal life. Groundwater communities are notorious for their low resilience. Therefore, any major disturbance that negatively impacts survival or reproduction may lead to local extinction of species, most of them being the only survivors of phylogenetic lineages extinct at the Earth surface. Given the ecological key role played by the subterranean fauna as decomposers of organic matter and “ecosystem engineers”, we urge more detailed, long-term studies on the effect of major disturbances to groundwater ecosystems. PMID:25182013

Near-real-time and scenario earthquake loss estimates for Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wyss, M.; Zuñiga, R.

2017-12-01

The large earthquakes of 8 September 2017, M8.1, and 19 September 2017, M7.1 have focused attention on the dangers of Mexican seismicity. The near-real-time alerts by QLARM estimated 10 to 300 fatalities and 0 to 200 fatalities, respectively. At the time of this submission the reported death tolls are 96 and 226, respectively. These alerts were issued within 96 and 57 minutes of the occurrence times. For the M8.1 earthquake the losses due to a line model could be calculated. The line with length L=110 km extended from the initial epicenter to the NE, where the USGS had reported aftershocks. On September 19, no aftershocks were available in near-real-time, so a point source had to be used for the quick calculation of likely casualties. In both cases, the casualties were at least an order of magnitude smaller than what they could have been because on 8 September the source was relatively far offshore and on 19 September the hypocenter was relatively deep. The largest historic earthquake in Mexico occurred on 28 March 1787 and likely had a rupture length of 450 km and M8.6. Based on this event, and after verifying our tool for Mexico, we estimated the order of magnitude of a disaster, given the current population, in a maximum credible earthquake along the Pacific coast. In the countryside along the coast we expect approximately 27,000 fatalities and 480,000 injured. In the special case of Mexico City the casualties in a worst possible earthquake along the Pacific plate boundary would likely be counted as five digit numbers. The large agglomerate of the capital with its lake bed soil attracts most attention. Nevertheless, one should pay attention to the fact that the poor, rural segment of society, living in buildings of weak resistance to shaking, are likely to sustain a mortality rate about 20% larger than the population in cities on average soil.

Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Economic losses and costs from 1900-2014: 115 years of the CATDAT database - Trends, Normalisation and Visualisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniell, James; Skapski, Jens-Udo; Vervaeck, Armand; Wenzel, Friedemann; Schaefer, Andreas

2015-04-01

Over the past 12 years, an in-depth database has been constructed for socio-economic losses from earthquakes and volcanoes. The effects of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions have been documented in many databases, however, many errors and incorrect details are often encountered. To combat this, the database was formed with socioeconomic checks of GDP, capital stock, population and other elements, as well as providing upper and lower bounds to each available event loss. The definition of economic losses within the CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database (Daniell et al., 2011a) as of v6.1 has now been redefined to provide three options of natural disaster loss pricing, including reconstruction cost, replacement cost and actual loss, in order to better define the impact of historical disasters. Similarly for volcanoes as for earthquakes, a reassessment has been undertaken looking at the historical net and gross capital stock and GDP at the time of the event, including the depreciated stock, in order to calculate the actual loss. A normalisation has then been undertaken using updated population, GDP and capital stock. The difference between depreciated and gross capital can be removed from the historical loss estimates which have been all calculated without taking depreciation of the building stock into account. The culmination of time series from 1900-2014 of net and gross capital stock, GDP, direct economic loss data, use of detailed studies of infrastructure age, and existing damage surveys, has allowed the first estimate of this nature. The death tolls in earthquakes from 1900-2014 are presented in various forms, showing around 2.32 million deaths due to earthquakes (with a range of 2.18 to 2.63 million) and around 59% due to masonry buildings and 28% from secondary effects. For the death tolls from the volcanic eruption database, 98000 deaths with a range from around 83000 to 107000 is seen from 1900-2014. The application of VSL life costing from death and injury

Review Article: A comparison of flood and earthquake vulnerability assessment indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Ruiter, Marleen C.; Ward, Philip J.; Daniell, James E.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.

2017-07-01

In a cross-disciplinary study, we carried out an extensive literature review to increase understanding of vulnerability indicators used in the disciplines of earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments. We provide insights into potential improvements in both fields by identifying and comparing quantitative vulnerability indicators grouped into physical and social categories. Next, a selection of index- and curve-based vulnerability models that use these indicators are described, comparing several characteristics such as temporal and spatial aspects. Earthquake vulnerability methods traditionally have a strong focus on object-based physical attributes used in vulnerability curve-based models, while flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use classes in curve-based models. In assessing the differences and similarities between indicators used in earthquake and flood vulnerability models, we only include models that separately assess either of the two hazard types. Flood vulnerability studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as developing object-based physical vulnerability curve assessments and incorporating time-of-the-day-based building occupation patterns. Likewise, earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies by refining their selection of social vulnerability indicators. Based on the lessons obtained in this study, we recommend future studies for exploring risk assessment methodologies across different hazard types.

Estimating Casualties for Large Earthquakes Worldwide Using an Empirical Approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.; Hearne, Mike

2009-01-01

We developed an empirical country- and region-specific earthquake vulnerability model to be used as a candidate for post-earthquake fatality estimation by the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. The earthquake fatality rate is based on past fatal earthquakes (earthquakes causing one or more deaths) in individual countries where at least four fatal earthquakes occurred during the catalog period (since 1973). Because only a few dozen countries have experienced four or more fatal earthquakes since 1973, we propose a new global regionalization scheme based on idealization of countries that are expected to have similar susceptibility to future earthquake losses given the existing building stock, its vulnerability, and other socioeconomic characteristics. The fatality estimates obtained using an empirical country- or region-specific model will be used along with other selected engineering risk-based loss models for generation of automated earthquake alerts. These alerts could potentially benefit the rapid-earthquake-response agencies and governments for better response to reduce earthquake fatalities. Fatality estimates are also useful to stimulate earthquake preparedness planning and disaster mitigation. The proposed model has several advantages as compared with other candidate methods, and the country- or region-specific fatality rates can be readily updated when new data become available.

The CATDAT damaging earthquakes database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniell, J. E.; Khazai, B.; Wenzel, F.; Vervaeck, A.

2011-08-01

The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture) database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies, and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure, and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes. Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon. Over 17 000 sources of information have been utilised, primarily in the last few years, to present data from over 12 200 damaging earthquakes historically, with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless, and affected), and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid, and insured). Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto (214 billion USD damage; 2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars) compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>300 billion USD at time of writing), 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product), exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index), and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons. This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis, and the global reinsurance field.

Testing earthquake source inversion methodologies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Page, M.; Mai, P.M.; Schorlemmer, D.

2011-01-01

Source Inversion Validation Workshop; Palm Springs, California, 11-12 September 2010; Nowadays earthquake source inversions are routinely performed after large earthquakes and represent a key connection between recorded seismic and geodetic data and the complex rupture process at depth. The resulting earthquake source models quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of ruptures. They are also used to provide a rapid assessment of the severity of an earthquake and to estimate losses. However, because of uncertainties in the data, assumed fault geometry and velocity structure, and chosen rupture parameterization, it is not clear which features of these source models are robust. Improved understanding of the uncertainty and reliability of earthquake source inversions will allow the scientific community to use the robust features of kinematic inversions to more thoroughly investigate the complexity of the rupture process and to better constrain other earthquakerelated computations, such as ground motion simulations and static stress change calculations.

Tsunami hazard assessments with consideration of uncertain earthquakes characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sepulveda, I.; Liu, P. L. F.; Grigoriu, M. D.; Pritchard, M. E.

2017-12-01

The uncertainty quantification of tsunami assessments due to uncertain earthquake characteristics faces important challenges. First, the generated earthquake samples must be consistent with the properties observed in past events. Second, it must adopt an uncertainty propagation method to determine tsunami uncertainties with a feasible computational cost. In this study we propose a new methodology, which improves the existing tsunami uncertainty assessment methods. The methodology considers two uncertain earthquake characteristics, the slip distribution and location. First, the methodology considers the generation of consistent earthquake slip samples by means of a Karhunen Loeve (K-L) expansion and a translation process (Grigoriu, 2012), applicable to any non-rectangular rupture area and marginal probability distribution. The K-L expansion was recently applied by Le Veque et al. (2016). We have extended the methodology by analyzing accuracy criteria in terms of the tsunami initial conditions. Furthermore, and unlike this reference, we preserve the original probability properties of the slip distribution, by avoiding post sampling treatments such as earthquake slip scaling. Our approach is analyzed and justified in the framework of the present study. Second, the methodology uses a Stochastic Reduced Order model (SROM) (Grigoriu, 2009) instead of a classic Monte Carlo simulation, which reduces the computational cost of the uncertainty propagation. The methodology is applied on a real case. We study tsunamis generated at the site of the 2014 Chilean earthquake. We generate earthquake samples with expected magnitude Mw 8. We first demonstrate that the stochastic approach of our study generates consistent earthquake samples with respect to the target probability laws. We also show that the results obtained from SROM are more accurate than classic Monte Carlo simulations. We finally validate the methodology by comparing the simulated tsunamis and the tsunami records for

International Collaboration for Strengthening Capacity to Assess Earthquake Hazard in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cummins, P. R.; Hidayati, S.; Suhardjono, S.; Meilano, I.; Natawidjaja, D.

2012-12-01

Indonesia has experienced a dramatic increase in earthquake risk due to rapid population growth in the 20th century, much of it occurring in areas near the subduction zone plate boundaries that are prone to earthquake occurrence. While recent seismic hazard assessments have resulted in better building codes that can inform safer building practices, many of the fundamental parameters controlling earthquake occurrence and ground shaking - e.g., fault slip rates, earthquake scaling relations, ground motion prediction equations, and site response - could still be better constrained. In recognition of the need to improve the level of information on which seismic hazard assessments are based, the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID) and Indonesia's National Agency for Disaster Management (BNPB), through the Australia-Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction, have initiated a 4-year project designed to strengthen the Government of Indonesia's capacity to reliably assess earthquake hazard. This project is a collaboration of Australian institutions including Geoscience Australia and the Australian National University, with Indonesian government agencies and universities including the Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics, the Geological Agency, the Indonesian Institute of Sciences, and Bandung Institute of Technology. Effective earthquake hazard assessment requires input from many different types of research, ranging from geological studies of active faults, seismological studies of crustal structure, earthquake sources and ground motion, PSHA methodology, and geodetic studies of crustal strain rates. The project is a large and diverse one that spans all these components, and these will be briefly reviewed in this presentation

Psychosocial Needs Assessment among Earthquake Survivors in Lorestan Province with an Emphasis on the Vulnerable Groups

PubMed Central

Forouzan, A.; Eftekhari, M. Baradaran; Falahat, K.; Dejman, M.; Heidari, N.; Habibi, E.

2013-01-01

Introduction: Iran is one of the ten most earthquake prone countries in the world. Earthquakes not only cause new psychological needs among the population but particularly so when one considers vulnerable groups. This in - depth study was conducted with the aim of assessing psychosocial needs six months after an earthquake happened in the west of the county in Lorestan province. Methods: This is a qualitative study using focus group discussion that focuses mainly on the vulnerable groups (women, children, elderly and disabled people) after an earthquake in Boz-azna; a village in Lorestan province in western part of Iran. Findings: Results of the psychosocial assessment indicated feelings of anxiety and worries in four vulnerable groups. Horror, hyper-excitement, avoidance and disturbing thoughts were observed in all groups with the exception of the elderly. Educational failures, loneliness and isolation were highlighted in children. All groups encountered socio-economic needs that included loss of assets and sense of insecurity and also reproductive problems were reported in women's group. Discussion and Conclusion: Modification of a protocol on psychosocial support considering the context of the rural and urban areas with emphasis on the specific needs of the vulnerable groups is an appropriate strategy in crisis management. It seems that appropriate public awareness regarding assistance programs can be effective in reducing stress and needs of disaster survivors. PMID:23777724

Rapid Ice Mass Loss: Does It Have an Influence on Earthquake Occurrence in Southern Alaska?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sauber, Jeanne M.

2008-01-01

The glaciers of southern Alaska are extensive, and many of them have undergone gigatons of ice wastage on time scales on the order of the seismic cycle. Since the ice loss occurs directly above a shallow main thrust zone associated with subduction of the Pacific-Yakutat plate beneath continental Alaska, the region between the Malaspina and Bering Glaciers is an excellent test site for evaluating the importance of recent ice wastage on earthquake faulting potential. We demonstrate the influence of cumulative glacial mass loss following the 1899 Yakataga earthquake (M=8.1) by using a two dimensional finite element model with a simple representation of ice fluctuations to calculate the incremental stresses and change in the fault stability margin (FSM) along the main thrust zone (MTZ) and on the surface. Along the MTZ, our results indicate a decrease in FSM between 1899 and the 1979 St. Elias earthquake (M=7.4) of 0.2 - 1.2 MPa over an 80 km region between the coast and the 1979 aftershock zone; at the surface, the estimated FSM was larger but more localized to the lower reaches of glacial ablation zones. The ice-induced stresses were large enough, in theory, to promote the occurrence of shallow thrust earthquakes. To empirically test the influence of short-term ice fluctuations on fault stability, we compared the seismic rate from a reference background time period (1988-1992) against other time periods (1993-2006) with variable ice or tectonic change characteristics. We found that the frequency of small tectonic events in the Icy Bay region increased in 2002-2006 relative to the background seismic rate. We hypothesize that this was due to a significant increase in the rate of ice wastage in 2002-2006 instead of the M=7.9, 2002 Denali earthquake, located more than 100km away.

Loss modeling for pricing catastrophic bonds.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-12-01

In the research, a loss estimation framework is presented that directly relates seismic : hazard to seismic response to damage and hence to losses. A Performance-Based Earthquake : Engineering (PBEE) approach towards assessing the seismic vulnerabili...

The global historical and future economic loss and cost of earthquakes during the production of adaptive worldwide economic fragility functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann

2014-05-01

Over the past decade, the production of economic indices behind the CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database has allowed for the conversion of historical earthquake economic loss and cost events into today's terms using long-term spatio-temporal series of consumer price index (CPI), construction costs, wage indices, and GDP from 1900-2013. As part of the doctoral thesis of Daniell (2014), databases and GIS layers for a country and sub-country level have been produced for population, GDP per capita, net and gross capital stock (depreciated and non-depreciated) using studies, census information and the perpetual inventory method. In addition, a detailed study has been undertaken to collect and reproduce as many historical isoseismal maps, macroseismic intensity results and reproductions of earthquakes as possible out of the 7208 damaging events in the CATDAT database from 1900 onwards. a) The isoseismal database and population bounds from 3000+ collected damaging events were compared with the output parameters of GDP and net and gross capital stock per intensity bound and administrative unit, creating a spatial join for analysis. b) The historical costs were divided into shaking/direct ground motion effects, and secondary effects costs. The shaking costs were further divided into gross capital stock related and GDP related costs for each administrative unit, intensity bound couplet. c) Costs were then estimated based on the optimisation of the function in terms of costs vs. gross capital stock and costs vs. GDP via the regression of the function. Losses were estimated based on net capital stock, looking at the infrastructure age and value at the time of the event. This dataset was then used to develop an economic exposure for each historical earthquake in comparison with the loss recorded in the CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database. The production of economic fragility functions for each country was possible using a temporal regression based on the parameters of

Seismic hazard assessment based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: the Greater Caucasus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nekrasova, A.; Kossobokov, V. G.

2015-12-01

Losses from natural disasters continue to increase mainly due to poor understanding by majority of scientific community, decision makers and public, the three components of Risk, i.e., Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Contemporary Science is responsible for not coping with challenging changes of Exposures and their Vulnerability inflicted by growing population, its concentration, etc., which result in a steady increase of Losses from Natural Hazards. Scientists owe to Society for lack of knowledge, education, and communication. In fact, Contemporary Science can do a better job in disclosing Natural Hazards, assessing Risks, and delivering such knowledge in advance catastrophic events. We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A - B•(M-6) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to estimate, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters including macro-seismic intensity. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks (e.g., those based on the density of exposed population). The methodology of seismic hazard and risks assessment based on USLE is illustrated by application to the seismic region of Greater Caucasus.

Impact of the Christchurch earthquakes on hospital staff.

PubMed

Tovaranonte, Pleayo; Cawood, Tom J

2013-06-01

On September 4, 2010 a major earthquake caused widespread damage, but no loss of life, to Christchurch city and surrounding areas. There were numerous aftershocks, including on February 22, 2011 which, in contrast, caused substantial loss of life and major damage to the city. The research aim was to assess how these two earthquakes affected the staff in the General Medicine Department at Christchurch Hospital. Problem To date there have been no published data assessing the impact of this type of natural disaster on hospital staff in Australasia. A questionnaire that examined seven domains (demographics, personal impact, psychological impact, emotional impact, impact on care for patients, work impact, and coping strategies) was handed out to General Medicine staff and students nine days after the September 2010 earthquake and 14 days after the February 2011 earthquake. Response rates were ≥ 99%. Sixty percent of responders were <30 years of age, and approximately 60% were female. Families of eight percent and 35% had to move to another place due to the September and February earthquakes, respectively. A fifth to a third of people had to find an alternative route of transport to get to work but only eight percent to 18% took time off work. Financial impact was more severe following the February earthquake, with 46% reporting damage of >NZ $1,000, compared with 15% following the September earthquake (P < .001). Significantly more people felt upset about the situation following the February earthquake than the September earthquake (42% vs 69%, P < .001). Almost a quarter thought that quality of patient care was affected in some way following the September earthquake but this rose to 53% after the February earthquake (12/53 vs 45/85, P < .001). Half believed that discharges were delayed following the September earthquake but this dropped significantly to 15% following the February earthquake (27/53 vs 13/62, P < .001). This survey provides a measure of the result of

Near Real-Time Earthquake Exposure and Damage Assessment: An Example from Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamer, Yavor; Çomoǧlu, Mustafa; Erdik, Mustafa

2014-05-01

Confined by infamous strike-slip North Anatolian Fault from the north and by the Hellenic subduction trench from the south Turkey is one of the most seismically active countries in Europe. Due this increased exposure and the fragility of the building stock Turkey is among the top countries exposed to earthquake hazard in terms of mortality and economic losses. In this study we focus recent and ongoing efforts to mitigate the earthquake risk in near real-time. We present actual results of recent earthquakes, such as the M6 event off-shore Antalya which occurred on 28 December 2013. Starting at the moment of detection, we obtain a preliminary ground motion intensity distribution based on epicenter and magnitude. Our real-time application is further enhanced by the integration of the SeisComp3 ground motion parameter estimation tool with the Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine (ELER). SeisComp3 provides the online station parameters which are then automatically incorporated into the ShakeMaps produced by ELER. The resulting ground motion distributions are used together with the building inventory to calculate expected number of buildings in various damage states. All these analysis are conducted in an automated fashion and are communicated within a few minutes of a triggering event. In our efforts to disseminate earthquake information to the general public we make extensive use of social networks such as Tweeter and collaborate with mobile phone operators.

Assessment of liquefaction potential during earthquakes by arias intensity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kayen, R.E.; Mitchell, J.K.

1997-01-01

An Arias intensity approach to assess the liquefaction potential of soil deposits during earthquakes is proposed, using an energy-based measure of the severity of earthquake-shaking recorded on seismograms of the two horizontal components of ground motion. Values representing the severity of strong motion at depth in the soil column are associated with the liquefaction resistance of that layer, as measured by in situ penetration testing (SPT, CPT). This association results in a magnitude-independent boundary that envelopes initial liquefaction of soil in Arias intensity-normalized penetration resistance space. The Arias intensity approach is simple to apply and has proven to be highly reliable in assessing liquefaction potential. The advantages of using Arias intensity as a measure of earthquake-shaking severity in liquefaction assessment are: Arias intensity is derived from integration of the entire seismogram wave form, incorporating both the amplitude and duration elements of ground motion; all frequencies of recorded motion are considered; and Arias intensity is an appropriate measure to use when evaluating field penetration test methodologies that are inherently energy-based. Predictor equations describing the attenuation of Arias intensity as a function of earthquake magnitude and source distance are presented for rock, deep-stiff alluvium, and soft soil sites.

Earthquake Hazard Assessment: Basics of Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir

2016-04-01

Seismic hazard assessment (SHA) is not an easy task that implies a delicate application of statistics to data of limited size and different accuracy. Earthquakes follow the Unified Scaling Law that generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship by taking into account naturally fractal distribution of their sources. Moreover, earthquakes, including the great and mega events, are clustered in time and their sequences have irregular recurrence intervals. Furthermore, earthquake related observations are limited to the recent most decades (or centuries in just a few rare cases). Evidently, all this complicates reliable assessment of seismic hazard and associated risks. Making SHA claims, either termless or time dependent (so-called t-DASH), quantitatively probabilistic in the frames of the most popular objectivists' viewpoint on probability requires a long series of "yes/no" trials, which cannot be obtained without an extended rigorous testing of the method predictions against real observations. Therefore, we reiterate the necessity and possibility of applying the modified tools of Earthquake Prediction Strategies, in particular, the Error Diagram, introduced by G.M. Molchan in early 1990ies for evaluation of SHA, and the Seismic Roulette null-hypothesis as a measure of the alerted space. The set of errors, i.e. the rates of failure and of the alerted space-time volume, compared to those obtained in the same number of random guess trials permits evaluating the SHA method effectiveness and determining the optimal choice of the parameters in regard to specified cost-benefit functions. These and other information obtained in such a testing supplies us with a realistic estimate of confidence in SHA results and related recommendations on the level of risks for decision making in regard to engineering design, insurance, and emergency management. These basics of SHA evaluation are exemplified in brief with a few examples, which analyses in more detail are given in a poster of

The Active Fault Parameters for Time-Dependent Earthquake Hazard Assessment in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Y.; Cheng, C.; Lin, P.; Shao, K.; Wu, Y.; Shih, C.

2011-12-01

Taiwan is located at the boundary between the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian Plate, with a convergence rate of ~ 80 mm/yr in a ~N118E direction. The plate motion is so active that earthquake is very frequent. In the Taiwan area, disaster-inducing earthquakes often result from active faults. For this reason, it's an important subject to understand the activity and hazard of active faults. The active faults in Taiwan are mainly located in the Western Foothills and the Eastern longitudinal valley. Active fault distribution map published by the Central Geological Survey (CGS) in 2010 shows that there are 31 active faults in the island of Taiwan and some of which are related to earthquake. Many researchers have investigated these active faults and continuously update new data and results, but few people have integrated them for time-dependent earthquake hazard assessment. In this study, we want to gather previous researches and field work results and then integrate these data as an active fault parameters table for time-dependent earthquake hazard assessment. We are going to gather the seismic profiles or earthquake relocation of a fault and then combine the fault trace on land to establish the 3D fault geometry model in GIS system. We collect the researches of fault source scaling in Taiwan and estimate the maximum magnitude from fault length or fault area. We use the characteristic earthquake model to evaluate the active fault earthquake recurrence interval. In the other parameters, we will collect previous studies or historical references and complete our parameter table of active faults in Taiwan. The WG08 have done the time-dependent earthquake hazard assessment of active faults in California. They established the fault models, deformation models, earthquake rate models, and probability models and then compute the probability of faults in California. Following these steps, we have the preliminary evaluated probability of earthquake-related hazards in certain

Lessons from the conviction of the L'Aquila seven: The standard probabilistic earthquake hazard and risk assessment is ineffective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wyss, Max

2013-04-01

An earthquake of M6.3 killed 309 people in L'Aquila, Italy, on 6 April 2011. Subsequently, a judge in L'Aquila convicted seven who had participated in an emergency meeting on March 30, assessing the probability of a major event to follow the ongoing earthquake swarm. The sentence was six years in prison, a combine fine of 2 million Euros, loss of job, loss of retirement rent, and lawyer's costs. The judge followed the prosecution's accusation that the review by the Commission of Great Risks had conveyed a false sense of security to the population, which consequently did not take their usual precautionary measures before the deadly earthquake. He did not consider the facts that (1) one of the convicted was not a member of the commission and had merrily obeyed orders to bring the latest seismological facts to the discussion, (2) another was an engineer who was not required to have any expertise regarding the probability of earthquakes, (3) and two others were seismologists not invited to speak to the public at a TV interview and a press conference. This exaggerated judgment was the consequence of an uproar in the population, who felt misinformed and even mislead. Faced with a population worried by an earthquake swarm, the head of the Italian Civil Defense is on record ordering that the population be calmed, and the vice head executed this order in a TV interview one hour before the meeting of the Commission by stating "the scientific community continues to tell me that the situation is favorable and that there is a discharge of energy." The first lesson to be learned is that communications to the public about earthquake hazard and risk must not be left in the hands of someone who has gross misunderstandings about seismology. They must be carefully prepared by experts. The more significant lesson is that the approach to calm the population and the standard probabilistic hazard and risk assessment, as practiced by GSHAP, are misleading. The later has been criticized as

Impact-based earthquake alerts with the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system: what's next?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wald, D.J.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Marano, K.D.; Garcia, D.; So, E.; Hearne, M.

2012-01-01

In September 2010, the USGS began publicly releasing earthquake alerts for significant earthquakes around the globe based on estimates of potential casualties and economic losses with its Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. These estimates significantly enhanced the utility of the USGS PAGER system which had been, since 2006, providing estimated population exposures to specific shaking intensities. Quantifying earthquake impacts and communicating estimated losses (and their uncertainties) to the public, the media, humanitarian, and response communities required a new protocol—necessitating the development of an Earthquake Impact Scale—described herein and now deployed with the PAGER system. After two years of PAGER-based impact alerting, we now review operations, hazard calculations, loss models, alerting protocols, and our success rate for recent (2010-2011) events. This review prompts analyses of the strengths, limitations, opportunities, and pressures, allowing clearer definition of future research and development priorities for the PAGER system.

Benefits of multidisciplinary collaboration for earthquake casualty estimation models: recent case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

So, E.

2010-12-01

the field surveys with experiments would also be advantageous as it is not always be possible to validate theories and models with actual earthquake data. In addition, colleagues in other disciplines will benefit from being introduced to the loss algorithms, methodologies and advances familiar to the engineering community, to help dissemination in earthquake mitigation and preparedness programs. It follows that new approaches to loss estimation must include a progressive assessment of what contributes to the final casualty value. In analyzing recent earthquakes, testing common hypotheses, talking to local and international researchers in the field, interviewing search and rescue and medical personnel, and comparing notes with colleagues who have visited other events, the author has developed a list of contributory factors to formulate fatality rates for use in earthquake loss estimation models. In this presentation, we will first look at the current state of data collection and assessment in casualty loss estimation. Then, the analyses of recent earthquake field data, which provide important insights to the contributory factors of fatalities in earthquakes, will be explored. The benefits of a multi-disciplinary approach in deriving fatality rates for masonry buildings will then be examined in detail.

A prototype operational earthquake loss model for California based on UCERF3-ETAS – A first look at valuation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward; Porter, Keith; Milner, Kevn

2017-01-01

We present a prototype operational loss model based on UCERF3-ETAS, which is the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast with an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) component. As such, UCERF3-ETAS represents the first earthquake forecast to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multi-fault ruptures, elastic-rebound, and spatiotemporal clustering, all of which seem important for generating realistic and useful aftershock statistics. UCERF3-ETAS is nevertheless an approximation of the system, however, so usefulness will vary and potential value needs to be ascertained in the context of each application. We examine this question with respect to statewide loss estimates, exemplifying how risk can be elevated by orders of magnitude due to triggered events following various scenario earthquakes. Two important considerations are the probability gains, relative to loss likelihoods in the absence of main shocks, and the rapid decay of gains with time. Significant uncertainties and model limitations remain, so we hope this paper will inspire similar analyses with respect to other risk metrics to help ascertain whether operationalization of UCERF3-ETAS would be worth the considerable resources required.

Assessing the earthquake hazards in urban areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hays, W.W.; Gori, P.L.; Kockelman, W.J.

1988-01-01

Major urban areas in widely scattered geographic locations across the United States are a t varying degrees of risk from earthquakes. the locations of these urban areas include Charleston, South Carolina; Memphis Tennessee; St.Louis, Missouri; Salt Lake City, Utah; Seattle-Tacoma, Washington; Portland, Oregon; and Anchorage, Alaska; even Boston, Massachusetts, and Buffalo New York, have a history of large earthquakes. Cooperative research during the past decade has focused on assessing the nature and degree of the risk or seismic hazard i nthe broad geographic regions around each urban area. The strategy since the 1970's has been to bring together local, State, and Federal resources to solve the problem of assessing seismic risk. Successfl sooperative programs have been launched in the San Francisco Bay and Los Angeles regions in California and the Wasatch Front region in Utah. 

Influence of the Wenchuan earthquake on self-reported irregular menstrual cycles in surviving women.

PubMed

Li, Xiao-Hong; Qin, Lang; Hu, Han; Luo, Shan; Li, Lei; Fan, Wei; Xiao, Zhun; Li, Ying-Xing; Li, Shang-Wei

2011-09-01

To explore the influence of stress induced by the Wenchuan earthquake on the menstrual cycles of surviving women. Self-reports of the menstrual cycles of 473 women that survived the Wenchuan earthquake were analyzed. Menstrual regularity was defined as menses between 21 and 35 days long. The death of a child or the loss of property and social resources was verified for all surviving women. The severity of these losses was assessed and graded as high, little, and none. About 21% of the study participants reported that their menstrual cycles became irregular after the Wenchuan earthquake, and this percentage was significantly higher than before the earthquake (6%, p < 0.05). About 30% of the surviving women with a high degree of loss in the earthquake reported menstrual irregularity after the earthquake. Association analyses showed that some stressors of the Wenchuan earthquake were strongly associated with self-reports of menstrual irregularity, including the loss of children (RR: 1.58; 95% CI: 1.09, 2.28), large amounts of property (RR: 1.49; 95% CI: 1.03, 2.15), social resources (RR: 1.34; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.80) and the hormonal contraception use (RR: 1.62; 95% CI: 1.21, 1.83). Self-reported menstrual irregularity is common in women that survived the Wenchuan earthquake, especially in those who lost children, large amounts of property and social resources.

A discussion of the socio-economic losses and shelter impacts from the Van, Turkey Earthquakes of October and November 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniell, J. E.; Khazai, B.; Wenzel, F.; Kunz-Plapp, T.; Vervaeck, A.; Muehr, B.; Markus, M.

2012-04-01

The Van earthquake in 2011 hit at 10:41 GMT (13:41 Local) on Sunday, October 23rd, 2011. It was a Mw7.1-7.3 event located at a depth of around 10 km with the epicentre located directly between Ercis (pop. 75,000) and Van (pop. 370,000). Since then, the CEDIM Forensic Analysis Group (using a team of seismologists, engineers, sociologists and meteorologists) and www.earthquake-report.com has reported and analysed on the Van event. In addition, many damaging aftershocks occurring after the main eventwere analysed including a major aftershock centered in Van-Edremit on November 9th, 2011, causing much additional losses. The province of Van has around 1.035 million people as of the last census. The Van province is one of the poorest in Turkey and has much inequality between the rural and urban centers with an average HDI (Human Development Index) around that of Bhutan or Congo. The earthquakes are estimated to have caused 604 deaths (23 October) and 40 deaths (9 November); mostly due to falling debris and house collapse). In addition, between 1 billion TRY to 4 billion TRY (approx. 555 million USD - 2.2 billion USD) is estimated as total economic losses. This represents around 17 to 66% of the provincial GDP of the Van Province (approx. 3.3 billion USD) as of 2011. From the CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database, major earthquakes such as this one have occurred in the year 1111 causing major damage and having a magnitude around 6.5-7. In the year 1646 or 1648, Van was again struck by a M6.7 quake killing around 2000 people. In 1881, a M6.3 earthquake near Van killed 95 people. Again, in 1941, a M5.9 earthquake affected Ercis and Van killing between 190 and 430 people. 1945-1946 as well as 1972 brought again damaging and casualty-bearing earthquakes to the Van province. In 1976, the Van-Muradiye earthquake struck the border region with a M7, killing around 3840 people and causing around 51,000 people to become homeless. Key immediate lessons from similar historic

Scientific, Engineering, and Financial Factors of the 1989 Human-Triggered Newcastle Earthquake in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klose, C. D.

2006-12-01

This presentation emphasizes the dualism of natural resources exploitation and economic growth versus geomechanical pollution and risks of human-triggered earthquakes. Large-scale geoengineering activities, e.g., mining, reservoir impoundment, oil/gas production, water exploitation or fluid injection, alter pre-existing lithostatic stress states in the earth's crust and are anticipated to trigger earthquakes. Such processes of in- situ stress alteration are termed geomechanical pollution. Moreover, since the 19th century more than 200 earthquakes have been documented worldwide with a seismic moment magnitude of 4.5earthquakes increased rapidly. An example of a human-triggered earthquake is the 1989 Newcastle event in Australia that was a result of almost 200 years of coal mining and water over-exploitation, respectively. This earthquake, an Mw=5.6 event, caused more than 3.5 billion U.S. dollars in damage (1989 value) and was responsible for Australia's first and only to date earthquake fatalities. It is therefore thought that, the Newcastle region tends to develop unsustainably if comparing economic growth due to mining and financial losses of triggered earthquakes. An hazard assessment, based on a geomechanical crust model, shows that only four deep coal mines were responsible for triggering this severe earthquake. A small-scale economic risk assessment identifies that the financial loss due to earthquake damage has reduced mining profits that have been re-invested in the Newcastle region for over two centuries beginning in 1801. Furthermore, large-scale economic risk assessment reveals that the financial loss is equivalent to 26% of the Australian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 1988/89. These costs account for 13% of the total costs of all natural disasters (e.g., flooding, drought, wild fires) and 94% of the costs of all

Understanding earthquake hazards in urban areas - Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyd, Oliver S.

2012-01-01

The region surrounding Evansville, Indiana, has experienced minor damage from earthquakes several times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and the proximity of Evansville to the Wabash Valley and New Madrid seismic zones, there is concern among nearby communities about hazards from earthquakes. Earthquakes currently cannot be predicted, but scientists can estimate how strongly the ground is likely to shake as a result of an earthquake and are able to design structures to withstand this estimated ground shaking. Earthquake-hazard maps provide one way of conveying such information and can help the region of Evansville prepare for future earthquakes and reduce earthquake-caused loss of life and financial and structural loss. The Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project (EAEHMP) has produced three types of hazard maps for the Evansville area: (1) probabilistic seismic-hazard maps show the ground motion that is expected to be exceeded with a given probability within a given period of time; (2) scenario ground-shaking maps show the expected shaking from two specific scenario earthquakes; (3) liquefaction-potential maps show how likely the strong ground shaking from the scenario earthquakes is to produce liquefaction. These maps complement the U.S. Geological Survey's National Seismic Hazard Maps but are more detailed regionally and take into account surficial geology, soil thickness, and soil stiffness; these elements greatly affect ground shaking.

Earthquake hazards: a national threat

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2006-01-01

Earthquakes are one of the most costly natural hazards faced by the Nation, posing a significant risk to 75 million Americans in 39 States. The risks that earthquakes pose to society, including death, injury, and economic loss, can be greatly reduced by (1) better planning, construction, and mitigation practices before earthquakes happen, and (2) providing critical and timely information to improve response after they occur. As part of the multi-agency National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has the lead Federal responsibility to provide notification of earthquakes in order to enhance public safety and to reduce losses through effective forecasts based on the best possible scientific information.

ShakeMap Atlas 2.0: an improved suite of recent historical earthquake ShakeMaps for global hazard analyses and loss model calibration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garcia, D.; Mah, R.T.; Johnson, K.L.; Hearne, M.G.; Marano, K.D.; Lin, K.-W.; Wald, D.J.

2012-01-01

We introduce the second version of the U.S. Geological Survey ShakeMap Atlas, which is an openly-available compilation of nearly 8,000 ShakeMaps of the most significant global earthquakes between 1973 and 2011. This revision of the Atlas includes: (1) a new version of the ShakeMap software that improves data usage and uncertainty estimations; (2) an updated earthquake source catalogue that includes regional locations and finite fault models; (3) a refined strategy to select prediction and conversion equations based on a new seismotectonic regionalization scheme; and (4) vastly more macroseismic intensity and ground-motion data from regional agencies All these changes make the new Atlas a self-consistent, calibrated ShakeMap catalogue that constitutes an invaluable resource for investigating near-source strong ground-motion, as well as for seismic hazard, scenario, risk, and loss-model development. To this end, the Atlas will provide a hazard base layer for PAGER loss calibration and for the Earthquake Consequences Database within the Global Earthquake Model initiative.

Assessment of impact of strong earthquakes to the global economy by example of Thoku event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tatiana, Skufina; Peter, Skuf'in; Sergey, Baranov; Vera, Samarina; Taisiya, Shatalova

2016-04-01

We examine the economic consequences of strong earthquakes by example of M9 Tahoku one that occurred on March 11, 2011 close to the northeast shore of Japanese coast Honshu. This earthquake became the strongest in the whole history of the seismological observations in this part of the planet. The generated tsunami killed more than 15,700 people, damaged 332,395 buildings and 2,126 roads. The total economic loss in Japan was estimated at 309 billion. The catastrophe in Japan also impacted global economy. To estimate its impact, we used regional and global stock indexes, production indexes, stock prices of the main Japanese, European and US companies, import and export dynamics, as well as the data provided by the custom of Japan. We also demonstrated that the catastrophe substantially affected the markets and on the short run in some indicators it even exceeded the effect of the global financial crisis of 2008. The last strong earthquake occurred in Nepal (25.04.2015, M7.8) and Chile (16.09.2015, M8.3), both actualized the research of cost assessments of the overall economic impact of seismic hazard. We concluded that it is necessary to treat strong earthquakes as one very important factor that affects the world economy depending on their location. The research was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Project 16-06-00056A).

Power Scaling of the Size Distribution of Economic Loss and Fatalities due to Hurricanes, Earthquakes, Tornadoes, and Floods in the USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tebbens, S. F.; Barton, C. C.; Scott, B. E.

2016-12-01

Traditionally, the size of natural disaster events such as hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, and floods is measured in terms of wind speed (m/sec), energy released (ergs), or discharge (m3/sec) rather than by economic loss or fatalities. Economic loss and fatalities from natural disasters result from the intersection of the human infrastructure and population with the size of the natural event. This study investigates the size versus cumulative number distribution of individual natural disaster events for several disaster types in the United States. Economic losses are adjusted for inflation to 2014 USD. The cumulative number divided by the time over which the data ranges for each disaster type is the basis for making probabilistic forecasts in terms of the number of events greater than a given size per year and, its inverse, return time. Such forecasts are of interest to insurers/re-insurers, meteorologists, seismologists, government planners, and response agencies. Plots of size versus cumulative number distributions per year for economic loss and fatalities are well fit by power scaling functions of the form p(x) = Cx-β; where, p(x) is the cumulative number of events with size equal to and greater than size x, C is a constant, the activity level, x is the event size, and β is the scaling exponent. Economic loss and fatalities due to hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, and floods are well fit by power functions over one to five orders of magnitude in size. Economic losses for hurricanes and tornadoes have greater scaling exponents, β = 1.1 and 0.9 respectively, whereas earthquakes and floods have smaller scaling exponents, β = 0.4 and 0.6 respectively. Fatalities for tornadoes and floods have greater scaling exponents, β = 1.5 and 1.7 respectively, whereas hurricanes and earthquakes have smaller scaling exponents, β = 0.4 and 0.7 respectively. The scaling exponents can be used to make probabilistic forecasts for time windows ranging from 1 to 1000 years

Earthquake recurrence and risk assessment in circum-Pacific seismic gaps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thatcher, W.

1989-01-01

THE development of the concept of seismic gaps, regions of low earthquake activity where large events are expected, has been one of the notable achievements of seismology and plate tectonics. Its application to long-term earthquake hazard assessment continues to be an active field of seismological research. Here I have surveyed well documented case histories of repeated rupture of the same segment of circum-Pacific plate boundary and characterized their general features. I find that variability in fault slip and spatial extent of great earthquakes rupturing the same plate boundary segment is typical rather than exceptional but sequences of major events fill identified seismic gaps with remarkable order. Earthquakes are concentrated late in the seismic cycle and occur with increasing size and magnitude. Furthermore, earthquake rup-ture starts near zones of concentrated moment release, suggesting that high-slip regions control the timing of recurrent events. The absence of major earthquakes early in the seismic cycle indicates a more complex behaviour for lower-slip regions, which may explain the observed cycle-to-cycle diversity of gap-filling sequences. ?? 1989 Nature Publishing Group.

Assessment of earthquake-induced landslides hazard in El Salvador after the 2001 earthquakes using macroseismic analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esposito, Eliana; Violante, Crescenzo; Giunta, Giuseppe; Ángel Hernández, Miguel

2016-04-01

Two strong earthquakes and a number of smaller aftershocks struck El Salvador in the year 2001. The January 13 2001 earthquake, Mw 7.7, occurred along the Cocos plate, 40 km off El Salvador southern coast. It resulted in about 1300 deaths and widespread damage, mainly due to massive landsliding. Two of the largest earthquake-induced landslides, Las Barioleras and Las Colinas (about 2x105 m3) produced major damage to buildings and infrastructures and 500 fatalities. A neighborhood in Santa Tecla, west of San Salvador, was destroyed. The February 13 2001 earthquake, Mw 6.5, occurred 40 km east-southeast of San Salvador. This earthquake caused over 300 fatalities and triggered several landslides over an area of 2,500 km2 mostly in poorly consolidated volcaniclastic deposits. The La Leona landslide (5-7x105 m3) caused 12 fatalities and extensive damage to the Panamerican Highway. Two very large landslides of 1.5 km3 and 12 km3 produced hazardous barrier lakes at Rio El Desague and Rio Jiboa, respectively. More than 16.000 landslides occurred throughout the country after both quakes; most of them occurred in pyroclastic deposits, with a volume less than 1x103m3. The present work aims to define the relationship between the above described earthquake intensity, size and areal distribution of induced landslides, as well as to refine the earthquake intensity in sparsely populated zones by using landslide effects. Landslides triggered by the 2001 seismic sequences provided useful indication for a realistic seismic hazard assessment, providing a basis for understanding, evaluating, and mapping the hazard and risk associated with earthquake-induced landslides.

Using remote sensing to predict earthquake impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fylaktos, Asimakis; Yfantidou, Anastasia

2017-09-01

Natural hazards like earthquakes can result to enormous property damage, and human casualties in mountainous areas. Italy has always been exposed to numerous earthquakes, mostly concentrated in central and southern regions. Last year, two seismic events near Norcia (central Italy) have occurred, which led to substantial loss of life and extensive damage to properties, infrastructure and cultural heritage. This research utilizes remote sensing products and GIS software, to provide a database of information. We used both SAR images of Sentinel 1A and optical imagery of Landsat 8 to examine the differences of topography with the aid of the multi temporal monitoring technique. This technique suits for the observation of any surface deformation. This database is a cluster of information regarding the consequences of the earthquakes in groups, such as property and infrastructure damage, regional rifts, cultivation loss, landslides and surface deformations amongst others, all mapped on GIS software. Relevant organizations can implement these data in order to calculate the financial impact of these types of earthquakes. In the future, we can enrich this database including more regions and enhance the variety of its applications. For instance, we could predict the future impacts of any type of earthquake in several areas, and design a preliminarily model of emergency for immediate evacuation and quick recovery response. It is important to know how the surface moves, in particular geographical regions like Italy, Cyprus and Greece, where earthquakes are so frequent. We are not able to predict earthquakes, but using data from this research, we may assess the damage that could be caused in the future.

Demand surge following earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olsen, Anna H.

2012-01-01

Demand surge is understood to be a socio-economic phenomenon where repair costs for the same damage are higher after large- versus small-scale natural disasters. It has reportedly increased monetary losses by 20 to 50%. In previous work, a model for the increased costs of reconstruction labor and materials was developed for hurricanes in the Southeast United States. The model showed that labor cost increases, rather than the material component, drove the total repair cost increases, and this finding could be extended to earthquakes. A study of past large-scale disasters suggested that there may be additional explanations for demand surge. Two such explanations specific to earthquakes are the exclusion of insurance coverage for earthquake damage and possible concurrent causation of damage from an earthquake followed by fire or tsunami. Additional research into these aspects might provide a better explanation for increased monetary losses after large- vs. small-scale earthquakes.

Seismogeodesy and Rapid Earthquake and Tsunami Source Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melgar Moctezuma, Diego

This dissertation presents an optimal combination algorithm for strong motion seismograms and regional high rate GPS recordings. This seismogeodetic solution produces estimates of ground motion that recover the whole seismic spectrum, from the permanent deformation to the Nyquist frequency of the accelerometer. This algorithm will be demonstrated and evaluated through outdoor shake table tests and recordings of large earthquakes, notably the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake and the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-oki events. This dissertations will also show that strong motion velocity and displacement data obtained from the seismogeodetic solution can be instrumental to quickly determine basic parameters of the earthquake source. We will show how GPS and seismogeodetic data can produce rapid estimates of centroid moment tensors, static slip inversions, and most importantly, kinematic slip inversions. Throughout the dissertation special emphasis will be placed on how to compute these source models with minimal interaction from a network operator. Finally we will show that the incorporation of off-shore data such as ocean-bottom pressure and RTK-GPS buoys can better-constrain the shallow slip of large subduction events. We will demonstrate through numerical simulations of tsunami propagation that the earthquake sources derived from the seismogeodetic and ocean-based sensors is detailed enough to provide a timely and accurate assessment of expected tsunami intensity immediately following a large earthquake.

Long aftershock sequences within continents and implications for earthquake hazard assessment.

PubMed

Stein, Seth; Liu, Mian

2009-11-05

One of the most powerful features of plate tectonics is that the known plate motions give insight into both the locations and average recurrence interval of future large earthquakes on plate boundaries. Plate tectonics gives no insight, however, into where and when earthquakes will occur within plates, because the interiors of ideal plates should not deform. As a result, within plate interiors, assessments of earthquake hazards rely heavily on the assumption that the locations of small earthquakes shown by the short historical record reflect continuing deformation that will cause future large earthquakes. Here, however, we show that many of these recent earthquakes are probably aftershocks of large earthquakes that occurred hundreds of years ago. We present a simple model predicting that the length of aftershock sequences varies inversely with the rate at which faults are loaded. Aftershock sequences within the slowly deforming continents are predicted to be significantly longer than the decade typically observed at rapidly loaded plate boundaries. These predictions are in accord with observations. So the common practice of treating continental earthquakes as steady-state seismicity overestimates the hazard in presently active areas and underestimates it elsewhere.

Turkish Compulsory Earthquake Insurance (TCIP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erdik, M.; Durukal, E.; Sesetyan, K.

2009-04-01

Through a World Bank project a government-sponsored Turkish Catastrophic Insurance Pool (TCIP) is created in 2000 with the essential aim of transferring the government's financial burden of replacing earthquake-damaged housing to international reinsurance and capital markets. Providing coverage to about 2.9 Million homeowners TCIP is the largest insurance program in the country with about 0.5 Billion USD in its own reserves and about 2.3 Billion USD in total claims paying capacity. The total payment for earthquake damage since 2000 (mostly small, 226 earthquakes) amounts to about 13 Million USD. The country-wide penetration rate is about 22%, highest in the Marmara region (30%) and lowest in the south-east Turkey (9%). TCIP is the sole-source provider of earthquake loss coverage up to 90,000 USD per house. The annual premium, categorized on the basis of earthquake zones type of structure, is about US90 for a 100 square meter reinforced concrete building in the most hazardous zone with 2% deductible. The earthquake engineering related shortcomings of the TCIP is exemplified by fact that the average rate of 0.13% (for reinforced concrete buildings) with only 2% deductible is rather low compared to countries with similar earthquake exposure. From an earthquake engineering point of view the risk underwriting (Typification of housing units to be insured, earthquake intensity zonation and the sum insured) of the TCIP needs to be overhauled. Especially for large cities, models can be developed where its expected earthquake performance (and consequently the insurance premium) can be can be assessed on the basis of the location of the unit (microzoned earthquake hazard) and basic structural attributes (earthquake vulnerability relationships). With such an approach, in the future the TCIP can contribute to the control of construction through differentiation of premia on the basis of earthquake vulnerability.

Building Time-Dependent Earthquake Recurrence Models for Probabilistic Loss Computations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitzenz, D. D.; Nyst, M.

2013-12-01

We present a Risk Management perspective on earthquake recurrence on mature faults, and the ways that it can be modeled. The specificities of Risk Management relative to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA), include the non-linearity of the exceedance probability curve for losses relative to the frequency of event occurrence, the fact that losses at all return periods are needed (and not at discrete values of the return period), and the set-up of financial models which sometimes require the modeling of realizations of the order in which events may occur (I.e., simulated event dates are important, whereas only average rates of occurrence are routinely used in PSHA). We use New Zealand as a case study and review the physical characteristics of several faulting environments, contrasting them against properties of three probability density functions (PDFs) widely used to characterize the inter-event time distributions in time-dependent recurrence models. We review the data available to help constrain both the priors and the recurrence process. And we propose that with the current level of knowledge, the best way to quantify the recurrence of large events on mature faults is to use a Bayesian combination of models, i.e., the decomposition of the inter-event time distribution into a linear combination of individual PDFs with their weight given by the posterior distribution. Finally we propose to the community : 1. A general debate on how best to incorporate our knowledge (e.g., from geology, geomorphology) on plausible models and model parameters, but also preserve the information on what we do not know; and 2. The creation and maintenance of a global database of priors, data, and model evidence, classified by tectonic region, special fluid characteristic (pH, compressibility, pressure), fault geometry, and other relevant properties so that we can monitor whether some trends emerge in terms of which model dominates in which conditions.

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment along Nankai Trough (1) An assessment based on the information of the forthcoming earthquake that Earthquake Research Committee(2013) evaluated

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, K.; Fujiwara, H.; Nakamura, H.; Osada, M.; Morikawa, N.; Kawai, S.; Ohsumi, T.; Aoi, S.; Yamamoto, N.; Matsuyama, H.; Toyama, N.; Kito, T.; Murashima, Y.; Murata, Y.; Inoue, T.; Saito, R.; Takayama, J.; Akiyama, S.; Korenaga, M.; Abe, Y.; Hashimoto, N.

2015-12-01

The Earthquake Research Committee(ERC)/HERP, Government of Japan (2013) revised their long-term evaluation of the forthcoming large earthquake along the Nankai Trough; the next earthquake is estimated M8 to 9 class, and the probability (P30) that the next earthquake will occur within the next 30 years (from Jan. 1, 2013) is 60% to 70%. In this study, we assess tsunami hazards (maximum coastal tsunami heights) in the near future, in terms of a probabilistic approach, from the next earthquake along Nankai Trough, on the basis of ERC(2013)'s report. The probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment that we applied is as follows; (1) Characterized earthquake fault models (CEFMs) are constructed on each of the 15 hypothetical source areas (HSA) that ERC(2013) showed. The characterization rule follows Toyama et al.(2015, JpGU). As results, we obtained total of 1441 CEFMs. (2) We calculate tsunamis due to CEFMs by solving nonlinear, finite-amplitude, long-wave equations with advection and bottom friction terms by finite-difference method. Run-up computation on land is included. (3) A time predictable model predicts the recurrent interval of the present seismic cycle is T=88.2 years (ERC,2013). We fix P30 = 67% by applying the renewal process based on BPT distribution with T and alpha=0.24 as its aperiodicity. (4) We divide the probability P30 into P30(i) for i-th subgroup consisting of the earthquakes occurring in each of 15 HSA by following a probability re-distribution concept (ERC,2014). Then each earthquake (CEFM) in i-th subgroup is assigned a probability P30(i)/N where N is the number of CEFMs in each sub-group. Note that such re-distribution concept of the probability is nothing but tentative because the present seismology cannot give deep knowledge enough to do it. Epistemic logic-tree approach may be required in future. (5) We synthesize a number of tsunami hazard curves at every evaluation points on coasts by integrating the information about 30 years occurrence

The 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance: A Case Study - Using an Earthquake Anniversary to Promote Earthquake Preparedness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brocher, T. M.; Garcia, S.; Aagaard, B. T.; Boatwright, J. J.; Dawson, T.; Hellweg, M.; Knudsen, K. L.; Perkins, J.; Schwartz, D. P.; Stoffer, P. W.; Zoback, M.

2008-12-01

Last October 21st marked the 140th anniversary of the M6.8 1868 Hayward Earthquake, the last damaging earthquake on the southern Hayward Fault. This anniversary was used to help publicize the seismic hazards associated with the fault because: (1) the past five such earthquakes on the Hayward Fault occurred about 140 years apart on average, and (2) the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault system is the most likely (with a 31 percent probability) fault in the Bay Area to produce a M6.7 or greater earthquake in the next 30 years. To promote earthquake awareness and preparedness, over 140 public and private agencies and companies and many individual joined the public-private nonprofit 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance (1868alliance.org). The Alliance sponsored many activities including a public commemoration at Mission San Jose in Fremont, which survived the 1868 earthquake. This event was followed by an earthquake drill at Bay Area schools involving more than 70,000 students. The anniversary prompted the Silver Sentinel, an earthquake response exercise based on the scenario of an earthquake on the Hayward Fault conducted by Bay Area County Offices of Emergency Services. 60 other public and private agencies also participated in this exercise. The California Seismic Safety Commission and KPIX (CBS affiliate) produced professional videos designed forschool classrooms promoting Drop, Cover, and Hold On. Starting in October 2007, the Alliance and the U.S. Geological Survey held a sequence of press conferences to announce the release of new research on the Hayward Fault as well as new loss estimates for a Hayward Fault earthquake. These included: (1) a ShakeMap for the 1868 Hayward earthquake, (2) a report by the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasting the number of employees, employers, and wages predicted to be within areas most strongly shaken by a Hayward Fault earthquake, (3) new estimates of the losses associated with a Hayward Fault earthquake, (4) new ground motion

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

2017-04-24

The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks. The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of

Modeling And Economics Of Extreme Subduction Earthquakes: Two Case Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavez, M.; Cabrera, E.; Emerson, D.; Perea, N.; Moulinec, C.

2008-05-01

The destructive effects of large magnitude, thrust subduction superficial (TSS) earthquakes on Mexico City (MC) and Guadalajara (G) has been shown in the recent centuries. For example, the 7/04/1845 and the 19/09/1985, two TSS earthquakes occurred on the coast of the state of Guerrero and Michoacan, with Ms 7+ and 8.1. The economical losses for the later were of about 7 billion US dollars. Also, the largest Ms 8.2, instrumentally observed TSS earthquake in Mexico, occurred in the Colima-Jalisco region the 3/06/1932, and the 9/10/1995 another similar, Ms 7.4 event occurred in the same region, the later produced economical losses of hundreds of thousands US dollars.The frequency of occurrence of large TSS earthquakes in Mexico is poorly known, but it might vary from decades to centuries [1]. Therefore there is a lack of strong ground motions records for extreme TSS earthquakes in Mexico, which as mentioned above, recently had an important economical impact on MC and potentially could have it in G. In this work we obtained samples of broadband synthetics [2,3] expected in MC and G, associated to extreme (plausible) magnitude Mw 8.5, TSS scenario earthquakes, with epicenters in the so-called Guerrero gap and in the Colima-Jalisco zone, respectively. The economical impacts of the proposed extreme TSS earthquake scenarios for MC and G were considered as follows: For MC by using a risk acceptability criteria, the probabilities of exceedance of the maximum seismic responses of their construction stock under the assumed scenarios, and the estimated economical losses observed for the 19/09/1985 earthquake; and for G, by estimating the expected economical losses, based on the seismic vulnerability assessment of their construction stock under the extreme seismic scenario considered. ----------------------- [1] Nishenko S.P. and Singh SK, BSSA 77, 6, 1987 [2] Cabrera E., Chavez M., Madariaga R., Mai M, Frisenda M., Perea N., AGU, Fall Meeting, 2005 [3] Chavez M., Olsen K

Efficient Location Uncertainty Treatment for Probabilistic Modelling of Portfolio Loss from Earthquake Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheingraber, Christoph; Käser, Martin; Allmann, Alexander

2017-04-01

Probabilistic seismic risk analysis (PSRA) is a well-established method for modelling loss from earthquake events. In the insurance industry, it is widely employed for probabilistic modelling of loss to a distributed portfolio. In this context, precise exposure locations are often unknown, which results in considerable loss uncertainty. The treatment of exposure uncertainty has already been identified as an area where PSRA would benefit from increased research attention. However, so far, epistemic location uncertainty has not been in the focus of a large amount of research. We propose a new framework for efficient treatment of location uncertainty. To demonstrate the usefulness of this novel method, a large number of synthetic portfolios resembling real-world portfolios is systematically analyzed. We investigate the effect of portfolio characteristics such as value distribution, portfolio size, or proportion of risk items with unknown coordinates on loss variability. Several sampling criteria to increase the computational efficiency of the framework are proposed and put into the wider context of well-established Monte-Carlo variance reduction techniques. The performance of each of the proposed criteria is analyzed.

An atlas of ShakeMaps for selected global earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Trevor I.; Wald, David J.; Hotovec, Alicia J.; Lin, Kuo-Wan; Earle, Paul S.; Marano, Kristin D.

2008-01-01

An atlas of maps of peak ground motions and intensity 'ShakeMaps' has been developed for almost 5,000 recent and historical global earthquakes. These maps are produced using established ShakeMap methodology (Wald and others, 1999c; Wald and others, 2005) and constraints from macroseismic intensity data, instrumental ground motions, regional topographically-based site amplifications, and published earthquake-rupture models. Applying the ShakeMap methodology allows a consistent approach to combine point observations with ground-motion predictions to produce descriptions of peak ground motions and intensity for each event. We also calculate an estimated ground-motion uncertainty grid for each earthquake. The Atlas of ShakeMaps provides a consistent and quantitative description of the distribution and intensity of shaking for recent global earthquakes (1973-2007) as well as selected historic events. As such, the Atlas was developed specifically for calibrating global earthquake loss estimation methodologies to be used in the U.S. Geological Survey Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) Project. PAGER will employ these loss models to rapidly estimate the impact of global earthquakes as part of the USGS National Earthquake Information Center's earthquake-response protocol. The development of the Atlas of ShakeMaps has also led to several key improvements to the Global ShakeMap system. The key upgrades include: addition of uncertainties in the ground motion mapping, introduction of modern ground-motion prediction equations, improved estimates of global seismic-site conditions (VS30), and improved definition of stable continental region polygons. Finally, we have merged all of the ShakeMaps in the Atlas to provide a global perspective of earthquake ground shaking for the past 35 years, allowing comparison with probabilistic hazard maps. The online Atlas and supporting databases can be found at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/shakemap/atlas.php/.

A comparison of socio-economic loss analysis from the 2013 Haiyan Typhoon and Bohol Earthquake events in the Philippines in near real-time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniell, James; Mühr, Bernhard; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Brink, Susan A.; Kunz, Michael; Khazai, Bijan; Wenzel, Friedemann

2014-05-01

In the aftermath of a disaster, the extent of the socioeconomic loss (fatalities, homelessness and economic losses) is often not known and it may take days before a reasonable estimate is known. Using the technique of socio-economic fragility functions developed (Daniell, 2014) using a regression of socio-economic indicators through time against historical empirical loss vs. intensity data, a first estimate can be established. With more information from the region as the disaster unfolds, a more detailed estimate can be provided via a calibration of the initial loss estimate parameters. In 2013, two main disasters hit the Philippines; the Bohol earthquake in October and the Haiyan typhoon in November. Although both disasters were contrasting and hit different regions, the same generalised methodology was used for initial rapid estimates and then the updating of the disaster loss estimate through time. The CEDIM Forensic Disaster Analysis Group of KIT and GFZ produced 6 reports for Bohol and 2 reports for Haiyan detailing various aspects of the disasters from the losses to building damage, the socioeconomic profile and also the social networking and disaster response. This study focusses on the loss analysis undertaken. The following technique was used:- 1. A regression of historical earthquake and typhoon losses for the Philippines was examined using the CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database, and various Philippines databases respectively. 2. The historical intensity impact of the examined events were placed in a GIS environment in order to allow correlation with the population and capital stock database from 1900-2013 to create a loss function. The modified human development index from 1900-2013 was also used to also calibrate events through time. 3. The earthquake intensity and the wind speed intensity was used from the 2013 events as well as the 2013 capital stock and population in order to calculate the number of fatalities (except in Haiyan), homeless and

Remote sensing and earthquake risk: A (re)insurance perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smolka, Anselm; Siebert, Andreas

2013-04-01

The insurance sector is faced with two issues regarding earthquake risk: the estimation of rarely occurring losses from large events and the assessment of the average annual net loss. For this purpose, knowledge is needed of actual event losses, of the distribution of exposed values, and of their vulnerability to earthquakes. To what extent can remote sensing help the insurance industry fulfil these tasks, and what are its limitations? In consequence of more regular and high-resolution satellite coverage, we have seen earth observation and remote sensing methods develop over the past years to a stage where they appear to offer great potential for addressing some shortcomings of the data underlying risk assessment. These include lack of statistical representativeness and lack of topicality. Here, remote sensing can help in the following areas: • Inventories of exposed objects (pre- and post-disaster) • Projection of small-scale ground-based vulnerability classification surveys to a full inventory • Post-event loss assessment But especially from an insurance point of view, challenges remain. The strength of airborne remote sensing techniques lies in outlining heavily damaged areas where damage is caused by easily discernible structural failure, i.e. total or partial building collapse. Examples are the Haiti earthquake (with minimal insured loss) and the tsunami-stricken areas in the Tohoku district of Japan. What counts for insurers, however, is the sum of monetary losses. The Chile, the Christchurch and the Tohoku earthquakes each caused insured losses in the two-digit billion dollar range. By far the greatest proportion of these insured losses were due to non-structural damage to buildings, machinery and equipment. Even with the Tohoku event, no more than 30% of the total material damage was caused by the tsunami according to preliminary surveys, and this figure includes damage due to earthquake shock which was unrecognisable after the passage of the tsunami

The design and implementation of urban earthquake disaster loss evaluation and emergency response decision support systems based on GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Kun; Xu, Quan-li; Peng, Shuang-yun; Cao, Yan-bo

2008-10-01

Based on the necessity analysis of GIS applications in earthquake disaster prevention, this paper has deeply discussed the spatial integration scheme of urban earthquake disaster loss evaluation models and visualization technologies by using the network development methods such as COM/DCOM, ActiveX and ASP, as well as the spatial database development methods such as OO4O and ArcSDE based on ArcGIS software packages. Meanwhile, according to Software Engineering principles, a solution of Urban Earthquake Emergency Response Decision Support Systems based on GIS technologies have also been proposed, which include the systems logical structures, the technical routes,the system realization methods and function structures etc. Finally, the testing systems user interfaces have also been offered in the paper.

Rapid exposure and loss estimates for the May 12, 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake provided by the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Earle, P.S.; Wald, D.J.; Allen, T.I.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Porter, K.A.; Hearne, M.G.

2008-01-01

One half-hour after the May 12th Mw 7.9 Wenchuan, China earthquake, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system distributed an automatically generated alert stating that 1.2 million people were exposed to severe-to-extreme shaking (Modified Mercalli Intensity VIII or greater). It was immediately clear that a large-scale disaster had occurred. These alerts were widely distributed and referenced by the major media outlets and used by governments, scientific, and relief agencies to guide their responses. The PAGER alerts and Web pages included predictive ShakeMaps showing estimates of ground shaking, maps of population density, and a list of estimated intensities at impacted cities. Manual, revised alerts were issued in the following hours that included the dimensions of the fault rupture. Within a half-day, PAGER’s estimates of the population exposed to strong shaking levels stabilized at 5.2 million people. A coordinated research effort is underway to extend PAGER’s capability to include estimates of the number of casualties. We are pursuing loss models that will allow PAGER the flexibility to use detailed inventory and engineering results in regions where these data are available while also calculating loss estimates in regions where little is known about the type and strength of the built infrastructure. Prototype PAGER fatality estimates are currently implemented and can be manually triggered. In the hours following the Wenchuan earthquake, these models predicted fatalities in the tens of thousands.

Coastal land loss and gain as potential earthquake trigger mechanism in SCRs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klose, C. D.

2007-12-01

In stable continental regions (SCRs), historic data show earthquakes can be triggered by natural tectonic sources in the interior of the crust and also by sources stemming from the Earth's sub/surface. Building off of this framework, the following abstract will discuss both as potential sources that might have triggered the 2007 ML4.2 Folkestone earthquake in Kent, England. Folkestone, located along the Southeast coast of Kent in England, is a mature aseismic region. However, a shallow earthquake with a local magnitude of ML = 4.2 occurred on April 28 2007 at 07:18 UTC about 1 km East of Folkestone (51.008° N, 1.206° E) between Dover and New Romney. The epicentral error is about ±5 km. While coastal land loss has major effects towards the Southwest and the Northeast of Folkestone, research observations suggest that erosion and landsliding do not exist in the immediate Folkestone city area (<1km). Furthermore, erosion removes rock material from the surface. This mass reduction decreases the gravitational stress component and would bring a fault away from failure, given a tectonic normal and strike-slip fault regime. In contrast, land gain by geoengineering (e.g., shingle accumulation) in the harbor of Folkestone dates back to 1806. The accumulated mass of sand and gravel accounted for a 2.8·109 kg (2.8 Mt) in 2007. This concentrated mass change less than 1 km away from the epicenter of the mainshock was able to change the tectonic stress in the strike-slip/normal stress regime. Since 1806, shear and normal stresses increased at most on oblique faults dipping 60±10°. The stresses reached values ranging between 1.0 KPa and 30.0 KPa in up to 2 km depth, which are critical for triggering earthquakes. Furthermore, the ratio between holding and driving forces continuously decreased for 200 years. In conclusion, coastal engineering at the surface most likely dominates as potential trigger mechanism for the 2007 ML4.2 Folkestone earthquake. It can be anticipated that

Improving vulnerability models: lessons learned from a comparison between flood and earthquake assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Ruiter, Marleen; Ward, Philip; Daniell, James; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

In a cross-discipline study, an extensive literature review has been conducted to increase the understanding of vulnerability indicators used in both earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments, and to provide insights into potential improvements of earthquake and flood vulnerability assessments. It identifies and compares indicators used to quantitatively assess earthquake and flood vulnerability, and discusses their respective differences and similarities. Indicators have been categorized into Physical- and Social categories, and further subdivided into (when possible) measurable and comparable indicators. Physical vulnerability indicators have been differentiated to exposed assets such as buildings and infrastructure. Social indicators are grouped in subcategories such as demographics, economics and awareness. Next, two different vulnerability model types have been described that use these indicators: index- and curve-based vulnerability models. A selection of these models (e.g. HAZUS) have been described, and compared on several characteristics such as temporal- and spatial aspects. It appears that earthquake vulnerability methods are traditionally strongly developed towards physical attributes at an object scale and used in vulnerability curve models, whereas flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use scales. Flood risk studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as incorporating more detailed lifeline and building indicators, and developing object-based vulnerability curve assessments of physical vulnerability, for example by defining building material based flood vulnerability curves. Related to this, is the incorporation of time of the day based building occupation patterns (at 2am most people will be at home while at 2pm most people will be in the office). Earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies when it comes to the refined selection of social vulnerability indicators

Predicting earthquake effects—Learning from Northridge and Loma Prieta

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holzer, Thomas L.

1994-01-01

The continental United States has been rocked by two particularly damaging earthquakes in the last 4.5 years, Loma Prieta in northern California in 1989 and Northridge in southern California in 1994. Combined losses from these two earthquakes approached $30 billion. Approximately half these losses were reimbursed by the federal government. Because large earthquakes typically overwhelm state resources and place unplanned burdens on the federal government, it is important to learn from these earthquakes how to reduce future losses. My purpose here is to explore a potential implication of the Northridge and Loma Prieta earthquakes for hazard-mitigation strategies: earth scientists should increase their efforts to map hazardous areas within urban regions. 

El Salvador earthquakes: relationships among acute stress disorder symptoms, depression, traumatic event exposure, and resource loss.

PubMed

Sattler, David N; de Alvarado, Ana Maria Glower; de Castro, Norma Blandon; Male, Robert Van; Zetino, A M; Vega, Raphael

2006-12-01

Four and seven weeks after powerful earthquakes in El Salvador, the authors examined the relationships among demographics, traumatic event exposure, social support, resource loss, acute stress disorder (ASD) symptoms, depression, and posttraumatic growth. Participants were 253 college students (Study 1) and 83 people in the community (Study 2). In Study 1, female gender, traumatic event exposure, low social support, and loss of personal characteristic, condition, and energy resources contributed to ASD symptoms and depression. In Study 2, damage to home and loss of personal characteristic and object resources contributed to ASD symptoms and depression. Posttraumatic growth was not associated with ASD symptoms or depression. Findings support the conservation of resources stress theory (Hobfoll, 1998). Resource loss spirals, excessive demands on coping, and exposure to multiple disasters are discussed.

Damaging earthquakes: A scientific laboratory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hays, Walter W.; ,

1996-01-01

This paper reviews the principal lessons learned from multidisciplinary postearthquake investigations of damaging earthquakes throughout the world during the past 15 years. The unique laboratory provided by a damaging earthquake in culturally different but tectonically similar regions of the world has increased fundamental understanding of earthquake processes, added perishable scientific, technical, and socioeconomic data to the knowledge base, and led to changes in public policies and professional practices for earthquake loss reduction.

The Key Role of Eyewitnesses in Rapid Impact Assessment of Global Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bossu, R.; Steed, R.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Roussel, F.; Etivant, C.; Frobert, L.; Godey, S.

2014-12-01

Uncertainties in rapid impact assessments of global earthquakes are intrinsically large because they rely on 3 main elements (ground motion prediction models, building stock inventory and related vulnerability) which values and/or spatial variations are poorly constrained. Furthermore, variations of hypocentral location and magnitude within their respective uncertainty domain can lead to significantly different shaking level for centers of population and change the scope of the disaster. We present the strategy and methods implemented at the Euro-Med Seismological Centre (EMSC) to rapidly collect in-situ observations on earthquake effects from eyewitnesses for reducing uncertainties of rapid earthquake impact assessment. It comprises crowdsourced information (online questionnaires, pics) as well as information derived from real time analysis of web traffic (flashourcing technique), and more recently deployment of QCN (Quake Catcher Network) low cost sensors. We underline the importance of merging results of different methods to improve performances and reliability of collected data.We try to better understand and respond to public demands and expectations after earthquakes through improved information services and diversification of information tools (social networks, smartphone app., browsers adds-on…), which, in turn, drive more eyewitnesses to our services and improve data collection. We will notably present our LastQuake Twitter feed (Quakebot) and smartphone applications (IOs and android) which only report earthquakes that matter for the public and authorities, i.e. felt and damaging earthquakes identified thanks to citizen generated information.

A collaborative user-producer assessment of earthquake-response products

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, Joan; Jakobitz, Allen

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Washington State Emergency Management Division assessed how well USGS earthquake-response products met the needs of emergency managers at county and local levels. Focus-group responses guided development of new products for testing in a regional-scale earthquake exercise. The assessment showed that (1) emergency responders consider most USGS products unnecessary after the first few postearthquake hours because the products are predictors, and responders are quickly immersed in reality; (2) during crises a significant fraction of personnel engaged in emergency response are drawn from many sectors, increasing the breadth of education well beyond emergency management agencies; (3) many emergency personnel do not use maps; and (4) information exchange, archiving, and analyses involve mechanisms and technical capabilities that vary among agencies, so widely used products must be technically versatile and easy to use.

Earthquake risk reduction in the United States: An assessment of selected user needs and recommendations for the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1994-12-31

This Assessment was conducted to improve the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) by providing NEHRP agencies with information that supports their user-oriented setting of crosscutting priorities in the NEHRP strategic planning process. The primary objective of this Assessment was to take a ``snapshot`` evaluation of the needs of selected users throughout the major program elements of NEHRP. Secondary objectives were to conduct an assessment of the knowledge that exists (or is being developed by NEHRP) to support earthquake risk reduction, and to begin a process of evaluating how NEHRP is meeting user needs. An identification of NEHRP`s strengths alsomore » resulted from the effort, since those strengths demonstrate successful methods that may be useful to NEHRP in the future. These strengths are identified in the text, and many of them represent important achievements since the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act was passed in 1977.« less

Earthquake risk assessment of Alexandria, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badawy, Ahmed; Gaber, Hanan; Ibrahim, Hamza

2015-01-01

Throughout historical and recent times, Alexandria has suffered great damage due to earthquakes from both near- and far-field sources. Sometimes, the sources of such damages are not well known. During the twentieth century, the city was shaken by several earthquakes generated from inland dislocations (e.g., 29 Apr. 1974, 12 Oct. 1992, and 28 Dec. 1999) and the African continental margin (e.g., 12 Sept. 1955 and 28 May 1998). Therefore, this study estimates the earthquake ground shaking and the consequent impacts in Alexandria on the basis of two earthquake scenarios. The simulation results show that Alexandria affected by both earthquakes scenarios relatively in the same manner despite the number of casualties during the first scenario (inland dislocation) is twice larger than the second one (African continental margin). An expected percentage of 2.27 from Alexandria's total constructions (12.9 millions, 2006 Census) will be affected, 0.19 % injuries and 0.01 % deaths of the total population (4.1 millions, 2006 Census) estimated by running the first scenario. The earthquake risk profile reveals that three districts (Al-Montazah, Al-Amriya, and Shark) lie in high seismic risks, two districts (Gharb and Wasat) are in moderate, and two districts (Al-Gomrok and Burg El-Arab) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Al-Montazah is the highest vulnerable district whereas 73 % of expected damages were reported there. The undertaken analysis shows that the Alexandria urban area faces high risk. Informal areas and deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated earthquake risks (buildings damages) are concentrated at the most densely populated (Al-Montazah, Al-Amriya, and Shark) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts.

Assessment of precast beam-column using capacity demand response spectrum subject to design basis earthquake and maximum considered earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghani, Kay Dora Abd.; Tukiar, Mohd Azuan; Hamid, Nor Hayati Abdul

2017-08-01

Malaysia is surrounded by the tectonic feature of the Sumatera area which consists of two seismically active inter-plate boundaries, namely the Indo-Australian and the Eurasian Plates on the west and the Philippine Plates on the east. Hence, Malaysia experiences tremors from far distant earthquake occurring in Banda Aceh, Nias Island, Padang and other parts of Sumatera Indonesia. In order to predict the safety of precast buildings in Malaysia under near field ground motion the response spectrum analysis could be used for dealing with future earthquake whose specific nature is unknown. This paper aimed to develop of capacity demand response spectrum subject to Design Basis Earthquake (DBE) and Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE) in order to assess the performance of precast beam column joint. From the capacity-demand response spectrum analysis, it can be concluded that the precast beam-column joints would not survive when subjected to earthquake excitation with surface-wave magnitude, Mw, of more than 5.5 Scale Richter (Type 1 spectra). This means that the beam-column joint which was designed using the current code of practice (BS8110) would be severely damaged when subjected to high earthquake excitation. The capacity-demand response spectrum analysis also shows that the precast beam-column joints in the prototype studied would be severely damaged when subjected to Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE) with PGA=0.22g having a surface-wave magnitude of more than 5.5 Scale Richter, or Type 1 spectra.

Integrated Earthquake Risk Assessment in the Kathmandu Valley - A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaper, Julia; Anhorn, Johannes; Khazai, Bijan; Nüsser, Marcus

2013-04-01

Rapid urban growth is a process which can be observed in cities worldwide. Managing these growing urban areas has become a major challenge for both governing bodies and citizens. Situated not only in a highly earthquake and landslide-prone area, but comprising also the cultural and political capital of Nepal, the fast expanding Kathmandu Valley in the Himalayan region is of particular interest. Vulnerability assessment has been an important tool for spatial planning in this already densely populated area. The magnitude 8.4 earthquake of Bihar in 1934 cost 8600 Nepalis their lives, destroyed 20% of the Kathmandu building stock and heavily damaged another 40%. Since then, Kathmandu has grown into a hub with over a million inhabitants. Rapid infrastructure and population growth aggravate the vulnerability conditions, particularly in the core area of Metropolitan Kathmandu. We propose an integrative framework for vulnerability and risk in Kathmandu Valley. In order to move towards a more systemic and integrated approach, we focus on interactions between natural hazards, physically engineered systems and society. High resolution satellite images are used to identify structural vulnerability of the building stock within the study area. Using object-based image analysis, the spatial dynamics of urban growth are assessed and validated using field data. Complementing this is the analysis of socio-economic attributes gained from databases and field surveys. An indicator-based vulnerability and resilience index will be operationalized using multi-attribute value theory and statistical methods such as principal component analysis. The results allow for a socio-economic comparison of places and their relative potential for harm and loss. The objective in this task is to better understand the interactions between nature and society, engineered systems and built environments through the development of an interdisciplinary framework on systemic seismic risk and vulnerability. Data

Using Groundwater physiochemical properties for assessing potential earthquake precursor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inbar, Nimrod; Reuveni, Yuval; Anker, Yaakov; Guttman, Joseph

2017-04-01

Worldwide studies reports pre-seismic, co-seismic and post-seismic reaction of groundwater to earthquakes. The unique hydrological and geological situation in Israel resulted in relatively deep water wells which are located close to seismically active tectonic plate boundary. Moreover, the Israeli experience show that anomalies may occurs 60-90 minutes prior to the seismic event (Guttman et al., 2005; Anker et al., 2016). Here, we try to assess the possible connection between changes in physiochemical parameters of groundwater and earthquakes along the Dead Sea Transform (DST) region. A designated network of monitoring stations was installed in MEKOROT abandoned deep water wells, continuously measuring water table, conductivity and temperature at a sampling rate of 1 minute. Preliminary analysis compares changes in the measured parameters with rain events, tidal effects and earthquake occurrences of all measured magnitudes (>2.5Md) at monitoring area surroundings. The acquired data set over one year recorded simultaneous abrupt changes in several wells which seems disconnected from standard hydrological occurrences such as precipitation, abstraction or tidal effects. At this stage, our research aims to determine and rationalize a baseline for "normal response" of the measured parameters to external occurrences while isolating those cases in which "deviations" from that base line is recorded. We apply several analysis techniques both in time and frequency domain with the measured signal as well as statistical analysis of several measured earthquake parameters, which indicate potential correlations between earthquakes occurrences and the measured signal. We show that at least in one seismic event (5.1 Md) a potential precursor may have been recorded. Reference: Anker, Y., N. Inbar, A. Y. Dror, Y. Reuveni, J. Guttman, A. Flexer, (2016). Groundwater response to ground movements, as a tool for earthquakes monitoring and a possible precursor. 8th International Conference

Sensitivity analysis of the FEMA HAZUS-MH MR4 Earthquake Model using seismic events affecting King County Washington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neighbors, C.; Noriega, G. R.; Caras, Y.; Cochran, E. S.

2010-12-01

HAZUS-MH MR4 (HAZards U. S. Multi-Hazard Maintenance Release 4) is a risk-estimation software developed by FEMA to calculate potential losses due to natural disasters. Federal, state, regional, and local government use the HAZUS-MH Earthquake Model for earthquake risk mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery planning (FEMA, 2003). In this study, we examine several parameters used by the HAZUS-MH Earthquake Model methodology to understand how modifying the user-defined settings affect ground motion analysis, seismic risk assessment and earthquake loss estimates. This analysis focuses on both shallow crustal and deep intraslab events in the American Pacific Northwest. Specifically, the historic 1949 Mw 6.8 Olympia, 1965 Mw 6.6 Seattle-Tacoma and 2001 Mw 6.8 Nisqually normal fault intraslab events and scenario large-magnitude Seattle reverse fault crustal events are modeled. Inputs analyzed include variations of deterministic event scenarios combined with hazard maps and USGS ShakeMaps. This approach utilizes the capacity of the HAZUS-MH Earthquake Model to define landslide- and liquefaction- susceptibility hazards with local groundwater level and slope stability information. Where Shakemap inputs are not used, events are run in combination with NEHRP soil classifications to determine site amplification effects. The earthquake component of HAZUS-MH applies a series of empirical ground motion attenuation relationships developed from source parameters of both regional and global historical earthquakes to estimate strong ground motion. Ground motion and resulting ground failure due to earthquakes are then used to calculate, direct physical damage for general building stock, essential facilities, and lifelines, including transportation systems and utility systems. Earthquake losses are expressed in structural, economic and social terms. Where available, comparisons between recorded earthquake losses and HAZUS-MH earthquake losses are used to determine how region

Putting down roots in earthquake country-Your handbook for earthquakes in the Central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Contributors: Dart, Richard; McCarthy, Jill; McCallister, Natasha; Williams, Robert A.

2011-01-01

This handbook provides information to residents of the Central United States about the threat of earthquakes in that area, particularly along the New Madrid seismic zone, and explains how to prepare for, survive, and recover from such events. It explains the need for concern about earthquakes for those residents and describes what one can expect during and after an earthquake. Much is known about the threat of earthquakes in the Central United States, including where they are likely to occur and what can be done to reduce losses from future earthquakes, but not enough has been done to prepare for future earthquakes. The handbook describes such preparations that can be taken by individual residents before an earthquake to be safe and protect property.

Stochastic ground-motion simulation of two Himalayan earthquakes: seismic hazard assessment perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harbindu, Ashish; Sharma, Mukat Lal; Kamal

2012-04-01

The earthquakes in Uttarkashi (October 20, 1991, M w 6.8) and Chamoli (March 8, 1999, M w 6.4) are among the recent well-documented earthquakes that occurred in the Garhwal region of India and that caused extensive damage as well as loss of life. Using strong-motion data of these two earthquakes, we estimate their source, path, and site parameters. The quality factor ( Q β ) as a function of frequency is derived as Q β ( f) = 140 f 1.018. The site amplification functions are evaluated using the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio technique. The ground motions of the Uttarkashi and Chamoli earthquakes are simulated using the stochastic method of Boore (Bull Seismol Soc Am 73:1865-1894, 1983). The estimated source, path, and site parameters are used as input for the simulation. The simulated time histories are generated for a few stations and compared with the observed data. The simulated response spectra at 5% damping are in fair agreement with the observed response spectra for most of the stations over a wide range of frequencies. Residual trends closely match the observed and simulated response spectra. The synthetic data are in rough agreement with the ground-motion attenuation equation available for the Himalayas (Sharma, Bull Seismol Soc Am 98:1063-1069, 1998).

Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: Altai-Sayan Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, V. G.; Nekrasova, A.

2017-12-01

We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on morphostructural analysis, pattern recognition, and the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes, USLE, which generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship making use of naturally fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size in a seismic region. The USLE stands for an empirical relationship log10N(M, L) = A + B·(5 - M) + C·log10L, where N(M, L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L. We use parameters A, B, and C of USLE to estimate, first, the expected maximum credible magnitude in a time interval at seismically prone nodes of the morphostructural scheme of the region under study, then map the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters (e.g. peak ground acceleration, PGA, or macro-seismic intensity etc.). After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (usually, the observed instrumental PGA or the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures (e.g., those based on census of population, buildings inventory, etc.). This, USLE based, methodology of seismic hazard and risks assessment is applied to the territory of Altai-Sayan Region, of Russia. The study supported by the Russian Science Foundation Grant No. 15-17-30020.

Earthquake predictions using seismic velocity ratios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherburne, R. W.

1979-01-01

Since the beginning of modern seismology, seismologists have contemplated predicting earthquakes. The usefulness of earthquake predictions to the reduction of human and economic losses and the value of long-range earthquake prediction to planning is obvious. Not as clear are the long-range economic and social impacts of earthquake prediction to a speicifc area. The general consensus of opinion among scientists and government officials, however, is that the quest of earthquake prediction is a worthwhile goal and should be prusued with a sense of urgency. 

Atmospheric Baseline Monitoring Data Losses Due to the Samoa Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schnell, R. C.; Cunningham, M. C.; Vasel, B. A.; Butler, J. H.

2009-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operates an Atmospheric Baseline Observatory at Cape Matatula on the north-eastern point of American Samoa, opened in 1973. The manned observatory conducts continuous measurements of a wide range of climate forcing and atmospheric composition data including greenhouse gas concentrations, solar radiation, CFC and HFC concentrations, aerosols and ozone as well as less frequent measurements of many other parameters. The onset of September 29, 2009 earthquake is clearly visible in the continuous data streams in a variety of ways. The station electrical generator came online when the Samoa power grid failed so instruments were powered during and subsequent to the earthquake. Some instruments ceased operation in a spurt of spurious data followed by silence. Other instruments just stopped sending data abruptly when the shaking from the earthquake broke a data or power links, or an integral part of the instrument was damaged. Others survived the shaking but were put out of calibration. Still others suffered damage after the earthquake as heaters ran uncontrolled or rotating shafts continued operating in a damaged environment grinding away until they seized up or chewed a new operating space. Some instruments operated as if there was no earthquake, others were brought back online within a few days. Many of the more complex (and in most cases, most expensive) instruments will be out of service, some for at least 6 months or more. This presentation will show these results and discuss the impact of the earthquake on long-term measurements of climate forcing agents and other critical climate measurements.

Thermal anomaly before earthquake and damage assessment using remote sensing data for 2014 Yutian earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yanmei; Huang, Haiying; Jiang, Zaisen; Fang, Ying; Cheng, Xiao

2014-12-01

Thermal anomaly appears to be a significant precursor of some strong earthquakes. In this study, time series of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) products from 2001 to 2014 are processed and analyzed to locate possible anomalies prior to the Yutian earthquake (12 February 2014, Xinjiang, CHINA). In order to reduce the seasonal or annual effects from the LST variations, also to avoid the rainy and cloudy weather in this area, a background mean of ten-day nighttime LST are derived using averaged MOD11A2 products from 2001 to 2012. Then the ten-day LST data from Jan 2014 to FebJanuary 2014 were differenced using the above background. Abnormal LST increase before the earthquake is quite obvious from the differential images, indicating that this method is useful in such area with high mountains and wide-area deserts. Also, in order to assess the damage to infrastructure, China's latest civilian high-resolution remote sensing satellite - GF-1 remote sensed data are applied to the affected counties in this area. The damaged infrastructures and ground surface could be easily interpreted in the fused pan-chromatic and multi-spectral images integrating both texture and spectral information.

Earthquake hazard and risk assessment based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: Greater Caucasus and Crimea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir G.; Nekrasova, Anastasia K.

2018-05-01

We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on morphostructural analysis, pattern recognition, and the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), which generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship making use of naturally fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size in a seismic region. The USLE stands for an empirical relationship log10 N(M, L) = A + B·(5 - M) + C·log10 L, where N(M, L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within a seismically prone area of linear dimension L. We use parameters A, B, and C of USLE to estimate, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at seismically prone nodes of the morphostructural scheme of the region under study, then map the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, PGA, or macro-seismic intensity). After a rigorous verification against the available seismic evidences in the past (usually, the observed instrumental PGA or the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures (e.g., those based on census of population, buildings inventory). The methodology of seismic hazard and risk assessment is illustrated by application to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea.

Urban MEMS based seismic network for post-earthquakes rapid disaster assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Alessandro, A.; Luzio, D.; D'Anna, G.

2014-09-01

In this paper, we introduce a project for the realization of the first European real-time urban seismic network based on Micro Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS) technology. MEMS accelerometers are a highly enabling technology, and nowadays, the sensitivity and the dynamic range of these sensors are such as to allow the recording of earthquakes of moderate magnitude even at a distance of several tens of kilometers. Moreover, thanks to their low cost and smaller size, MEMS accelerometers can be easily installed in urban areas in order to achieve an urban seismic network constituted by high density of observation points. The network is being implemented in the Acireale Municipality (Sicily, Italy), an area among those with the highest hazard, vulnerability and exposure to the earthquake of the Italian territory. The main objective of the implemented urban network will be to achieve an effective system for post-earthquake rapid disaster assessment. The earthquake recorded, also that with moderate magnitude will be used for the effective seismic microzonation of the area covered by the network. The implemented system will be also used to realize a site-specific earthquakes early warning system.

Social Media as Seismic Networks for the Earthquake Damage Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meletti, C.; Cresci, S.; La Polla, M. N.; Marchetti, A.; Tesconi, M.

2014-12-01

The growing popularity of online platforms, based on user-generated content, is gradually creating a digital world that mirrors the physical world. In the paradigm of crowdsensing, the crowd becomes a distributed network of sensors that allows us to understand real life events at a quasi-real-time rate. The SoS-Social Sensing project [http://socialsensing.it/] exploits the opportunistic crowdsensing, involving users in the sensing process in a minimal way, for social media emergency management purposes in order to obtain a very fast, but still reliable, detection of emergency dimension to face. First of all we designed and implemented a decision support system for the detection and the damage assessment of earthquakes. Our system exploits the messages shared in real-time on Twitter. In the detection phase, data mining and natural language processing techniques are firstly adopted to select meaningful and comprehensive sets of tweets. Then we applied a burst detection algorithm in order to promptly identify outbreaking seismic events. Using georeferenced tweets and reported locality names, a rough epicentral determination is also possible. The results, compared to Italian INGV official reports, show that the system is able to detect, within seconds, events of a magnitude in the region of 3.5 with a precision of 75% and a recall of 81,82%. We then focused our attention on damage assessment phase. We investigated the possibility to exploit social media data to estimate earthquake intensity. We designed a set of predictive linear models and evaluated their ability to map the intensity of worldwide earthquakes. The models build on a dataset of almost 5 million tweets exploited to compute our earthquake features, and more than 7,000 globally distributed earthquakes data, acquired in a semi-automatic way from USGS, serving as ground truth. We extracted 45 distinct features falling into four categories: profile, tweet, time and linguistic. We run diagnostic tests and

Missing great earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hough, Susan E.

2013-01-01

The occurrence of three earthquakes with moment magnitude (Mw) greater than 8.8 and six earthquakes larger than Mw 8.5, since 2004, has raised interest in the long-term global rate of great earthquakes. Past studies have focused on the analysis of earthquakes since 1900, which roughly marks the start of the instrumental era in seismology. Before this time, the catalog is less complete and magnitude estimates are more uncertain. Yet substantial information is available for earthquakes before 1900, and the catalog of historical events is being used increasingly to improve hazard assessment. Here I consider the catalog of historical earthquakes and show that approximately half of all Mw ≥ 8.5 earthquakes are likely missing or underestimated in the 19th century. I further present a reconsideration of the felt effects of the 8 February 1843, Lesser Antilles earthquake, including a first thorough assessment of felt reports from the United States, and show it is an example of a known historical earthquake that was significantly larger than initially estimated. The results suggest that incorporation of best available catalogs of historical earthquakes will likely lead to a significant underestimation of seismic hazard and/or the maximum possible magnitude in many regions, including parts of the Caribbean.

Living on an Active Earth: Perspectives on Earthquake Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lay, Thorne

2004-02-01

The annualized long-term loss due to earthquakes in the United States is now estimated at $4.4 billion per year. A repeat of the 1923 Kanto earthquake, near Tokyo, could cause direct losses of $2-3 trillion. With such grim numbers, which are guaranteed to make you take its work seriously, the NRC Committee on the Science of Earthquakes begins its overview of the emerging multidisciplinary field of earthquake science. An up-to-date and forward-looking survey of scientific investigation of earthquake phenomena and engineering response to associated hazards is presented at a suitable level for a general educated audience. Perspectives from the fields of seismology, geodesy, neo-tectonics, paleo-seismology, rock mechanics, earthquake engineering, and computer modeling of complex dynamic systems are integrated into a balanced definition of earthquake science that has never before been adequately articulated.

A smartphone application for earthquakes that matter!

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bossu, Rémy; Etivant, Caroline; Roussel, Fréderic; Mazet-Roux, Gilles; Steed, Robert

2014-05-01

Smartphone applications have swiftly become one of the most popular tools for rapid reception of earthquake information for the public, some of them having been downloaded more than 1 million times! The advantages are obvious: wherever someone's own location is, they can be automatically informed when an earthquake has struck. Just by setting a magnitude threshold and an area of interest, there is no longer the need to browse the internet as the information reaches you automatically and instantaneously! One question remains: are the provided earthquake notifications always relevant for the public? What are the earthquakes that really matters to laypeople? One clue may be derived from some newspaper reports that show that a while after damaging earthquakes many eyewitnesses scrap the application they installed just after the mainshock. Why? Because either the magnitude threshold is set too high and many felt earthquakes are missed, or it is set too low and the majority of the notifications are related to unfelt earthquakes thereby only increasing anxiety among the population at each new update. Felt and damaging earthquakes are the ones that matter the most for the public (and authorities). They are the ones of societal importance even when of small magnitude. A smartphone application developed by EMSC (Euro-Med Seismological Centre) with the financial support of the Fondation MAIF aims at providing suitable notifications for earthquakes by collating different information threads covering tsunamigenic, potentially damaging and felt earthquakes. Tsunamigenic earthquakes are considered here to be those ones that are the subject of alert or information messages from the PTWC (Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre). While potentially damaging earthquakes are identified through an automated system called EQIA (Earthquake Qualitative Impact Assessment) developed and operated at EMSC. This rapidly assesses earthquake impact by comparing the population exposed to each expected

Cascadia's Staggering Losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Vogt, B.

2001-05-01

Recent worldwide earthquakes have resulted in staggering losses. The Northridge, California; Kobe, Japan; Loma Prieta, California; Izmit, Turkey; Chi-Chi, Taiwan; and Bhuj, India earthquakes, which range from magnitudes 6.7 to 7.7, have all occurred near populated areas. These earthquakes have resulted in estimated losses between \\3 and \\300 billion, with tens to tens of thousands of fatalities. Subduction zones are capable of producing the largest earthquakes. The 1939 M7.8 Chilean, the 1960 M9.5 Chilean, the 1964 M9.2 Alaskan, the 1970 M7.8 Peruvian, the 1985 M7.9 Mexico City and the 2001 M7.7 Bhuj earthquakes are damaging subduction zone quakes. The Cascadia fault zone poses a tremendous hazard in the Pacific Northwest due to the ground shaking and tsunami inundation hazards combined with the population. To address the Cascadia subduction zone threat, the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries conducted a preliminary statewide loss study. The 1998 Oregon study incorporated a M8.5 quake, the influence of near surface soil effects and default building, social and economic data available in FEMA's HAZUS97 software. Direct financial losses are projected at over \\$12 billion. Casualties are estimated at about 13,000. Over 5,000 of the casualties are estimated to result in fatalities from hazards relating to tsunamis and unreinforced masonry buildings.

Earthquake Risk Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, N.; Sakai, S.; Kasahara, K.; Nakagawa, S.; Nanjo, K.; Panayotopoulos, Y.; Tsuruoka, H.

2010-12-01

Seismic disaster risk mitigation in urban areas constitutes a challenge through collaboration of scientific, engineering, and social-science fields. Examples of collaborative efforts include research on detailed plate structure with identification of all significant faults, developing dense seismic networks; strong ground motion prediction, which uses information on near-surface seismic site effects and fault models; earthquake resistant and proof structures; and cross-discipline infrastructure for effective risk mitigation just after catastrophic events. Risk mitigation strategy for the next greater earthquake caused by the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducting beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area is of major concern because it caused past mega-thrust earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (magnitude M8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M7.9) which had 105,000 fatalities. A M7 or greater (M7+) earthquake in this area at present has high potential to produce devastating loss of life and property with even greater global economic repercussions. The Central Disaster Management Council of Japan estimates that the M7+ earthquake will cause 11,000 fatalities and 112 trillion yen (about 1 trillion US$) economic loss. This earthquake is evaluated to occur with a probability of 70% in 30 years by the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan. In order to mitigate disaster for greater Tokyo, the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (2007-2011) was launched in collaboration with scientists, engineers, and social-scientists in nationwide institutions. The results that are obtained in the respective fields will be integrated until project termination to improve information on the strategy assessment for seismic risk mitigation in the Tokyo metropolitan area. In this talk, we give an outline of our project as an example of collaborative research on earthquake risk mitigation. Discussion is extended to our effort in progress and

Earthquake Hazard Assessment Based on Geological Data: An approach from Crystalline Terrain of Peninsular India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

John, B.

2009-04-01

Earthquake Hazard Assessment Based on Geological Data: An approach from Crystalline Terrain of Peninsular India Biju John National Institute of Rock Mechanics b_johnp@yahoo.co.in Peninsular India was for long considered as seismically stable. But the recent earthquake sequence of Latur (1993), Jabalpur (1997), Bhuj (2001) suggests this region is among one of the active Stable Continental Regions (SCRs) of the world, where the recurrence intervals is of the order of tens of thousands of years. In such areas, earthquake may happen at unexpected locations, devoid of any previous seismicity or dramatic geomorphic features. Even moderate earthquakes will lead to heavy loss of life and property in the present scenario. So it is imperative to map suspected areas to identify active faults and evaluate its activities, which will be a vital input to seismic hazard assessment of SCR area. The region around Wadakkanchery, Kerala, South India has been experiencing micro seismic activities since 1989. Subsequent studies, by the author, identified a 30 km long WNW-ESE trending reverse fault, dipping south (45°), that influenced the drainage system of the area. The macroscopic and microscopic studies of the fault rocks from the exposures near Desamangalam show an episodic nature of faulting. Dislocations of pegmatitic veins across the fault indicate a cumulative dip displacement of 2.1m in the reverse direction. A minimum of four episodes of faulting were identified in this fault based on the cross cutting relations of different structural elements and from the mineralogic changes of different generations of gouge zones. This suggests that an average displacement of 52cm per event might have occurred for each event. A cyclic nature of faulting is identified in this fault zone in which the inter-seismic period is characterized by gouge induration and fracture sealing aided by the prevailing fluids. Available empirical relations connecting magnitude with displacement and rupture

Developing ShakeCast statistical fragility analysis framework for rapid post-earthquake assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lin, K.-W.; Wald, D.J.

2012-01-01

When an earthquake occurs, the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) ShakeMap estimates the extent of potentially damaging shaking and provides overall information regarding the affected areas. The USGS ShakeCast system is a freely-available, post-earthquake situational awareness application that automatically retrieves earthquake shaking data from ShakeMap, compares intensity measures against users’ facilities, sends notifications of potential damage to responsible parties, and generates facility damage assessment maps and other web-based products for emergency managers and responders. We describe notable improvements of the ShakeMap and the ShakeCast applications. We present a design for comprehensive fragility implementation, integrating spatially-varying ground-motion uncertainties into fragility curves for ShakeCast operations. For each facility, an overall inspection priority (or damage assessment) is assigned on the basis of combined component-based fragility curves using pre-defined logic. While regular ShakeCast users receive overall inspection priority designations for each facility, engineers can access the full fragility analyses for further evaluation.

Stochastic output error vibration-based damage detection and assessment in structures under earthquake excitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakellariou, J. S.; Fassois, S. D.

2006-11-01

A stochastic output error (OE) vibration-based methodology for damage detection and assessment (localization and quantification) in structures under earthquake excitation is introduced. The methodology is intended for assessing the state of a structure following potential damage occurrence by exploiting vibration signal measurements produced by low-level earthquake excitations. It is based upon (a) stochastic OE model identification, (b) statistical hypothesis testing procedures for damage detection, and (c) a geometric method (GM) for damage assessment. The methodology's advantages include the effective use of the non-stationary and limited duration earthquake excitation, the handling of stochastic uncertainties, the tackling of the damage localization and quantification subproblems, the use of "small" size, simple and partial (in both the spatial and frequency bandwidth senses) identified OE-type models, and the use of a minimal number of measured vibration signals. Its feasibility and effectiveness are assessed via Monte Carlo experiments employing a simple simulation model of a 6 storey building. It is demonstrated that damage levels of 5% and 20% reduction in a storey's stiffness characteristics may be properly detected and assessed using noise-corrupted vibration signals.

Seismic Hazard Assessment for a Characteristic Earthquake Scenario: Probabilistic-Deterministic Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

mouloud, Hamidatou

2016-04-01

The objective of this paper is to analyze the seismic activity and the statistical treatment of seismicity catalog the Constantine region between 1357 and 2014 with 7007 seismic event. Our research is a contribution to improving the seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazard in the North-East Algeria. In the present study, Earthquake hazard maps for the Constantine region are calculated. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is classically performed through the Cornell approach by using a uniform earthquake distribution over the source area and a given magnitude range. This study aims at extending the PSHA approach to the case of a characteristic earthquake scenario associated with an active fault. The approach integrates PSHA with a high-frequency deterministic technique for the prediction of peak and spectral ground motion parameters in a characteristic earthquake. The method is based on the site-dependent evaluation of the probability of exceedance for the chosen strong-motion parameter. We proposed five sismotectonique zones. Four steps are necessary: (i) identification of potential sources of future earthquakes, (ii) assessment of their geological, geophysical and geometric, (iii) identification of the attenuation pattern of seismic motion, (iv) calculation of the hazard at a site and finally (v) hazard mapping for a region. In this study, the procedure of the earthquake hazard evaluation recently developed by Kijko and Sellevoll (1992) is used to estimate seismic hazard parameters in the northern part of Algeria.

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment along Nankai Trough (2) a comprehensive assessment including a variety of earthquake source areas other than those that the Earthquake Research Committee, Japanese government (2013) showed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, K.; Fujiwara, H.; Nakamura, H.; Osada, M.; Morikawa, N.; Kawai, S.; Ohsumi, T.; Aoi, S.; Yamamoto, N.; Matsuyama, H.; Toyama, N.; Kito, T.; Murashima, Y.; Murata, Y.; Inoue, T.; Saito, R.; Takayama, J.; Akiyama, S.; Korenaga, M.; Abe, Y.; Hashimoto, N.

2016-12-01

For the forthcoming Nankai earthquake with M8 to M9 class, the Earthquake Research Committee(ERC)/Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, Japanese government (2013) showed 15 examples of earthquake source areas (ESAs) as possible combinations of 18 sub-regions (6 segments along trough and 3 segments normal to trough) and assessed the occurrence probability within the next 30 years (from Jan. 1, 2013) was 60% to 70%. Hirata et al.(2015, AGU) presented Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) along Nankai Trough in the case where diversity of the next event's ESA is modeled by only the 15 ESAs. In this study, we newly set 70 ESAs in addition of the previous 15 ESAs so that total of 85 ESAs are considered. By producing tens of faults models, with various slip distribution patterns, for each of 85 ESAs, we obtain 2500 fault models in addition of previous 1400 fault models so that total of 3900 fault models are considered to model the diversity of the next Nankai earthquake rupture (Toyama et al.,2015, JpGU). For PTHA, the occurrence probability of the next Nankai earthquake is distributed to possible 3900 fault models in the viewpoint of similarity to the 15 ESAs' extents (Abe et al.,2015, JpGU). A major concept of the occurrence probability distribution is; (i) earthquakes rupturing on any of 15 ESAs that ERC(2013) showed most likely occur, (ii) earthquakes rupturing on any of ESAs whose along-trench extent is the same as any of 15 ESAs but trough-normal extent differs from it second likely occur, (iii) earthquakes rupturing on any of ESAs whose both of along-trough and trough-normal extents differ from any of 15 ESAs rarely occur. Procedures for tsunami simulation and probabilistic tsunami hazard synthesis are the same as Hirata et al (2015). A tsunami hazard map, synthesized under an assumption that the Nankai earthquakes can be modeled as a renewal process based on BPT distribution with a mean recurrence interval of 88.2 years (ERC, 2013) and an

Statistical validation of earthquake related observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, V. G.

2011-12-01

The confirmed fractal nature of earthquakes and their distribution in space and time implies that many traditional estimations of seismic hazard (from term-less to short-term ones) are usually based on erroneous assumptions of easy tractable or, conversely, delicately-designed models. The widespread practice of deceptive modeling considered as a "reasonable proxy" of the natural seismic process leads to seismic hazard assessment of unknown quality, which errors propagate non-linearly into inflicted estimates of risk and, eventually, into unexpected societal losses of unacceptable level. The studies aimed at forecast/prediction of earthquakes must include validation in the retro- (at least) and, eventually, in prospective tests. In the absence of such control a suggested "precursor/signal" remains a "candidate", which link to target seismic event is a model assumption. Predicting in advance is the only decisive test of forecast/predictions and, therefore, the score-card of any "established precursor/signal" represented by the empirical probabilities of alarms and failures-to-predict achieved in prospective testing must prove statistical significance rejecting the null-hypothesis of random coincidental occurrence in advance target earthquakes. We reiterate suggesting so-called "Seismic Roulette" null-hypothesis as the most adequate undisturbed random alternative accounting for the empirical spatial distribution of earthquakes: (i) Consider a roulette wheel with as many sectors as the number of earthquake locations from a sample catalog representing seismic locus, a sector per each location and (ii) make your bet according to prediction (i.e., determine, which locations are inside area of alarm, and put one chip in each of the corresponding sectors); (iii) Nature turns the wheel; (iv) accumulate statistics of wins and losses along with the number of chips spent. If a precursor in charge of prediction exposes an imperfection of Seismic Roulette then, having in mind

Earthquake Damage Assessment Using Objective Image Segmentation: A Case Study of 2010 Haiti Earthquake

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oommen, Thomas; Rebbapragada, Umaa; Cerminaro, Daniel

2012-01-01

In this study, we perform a case study on imagery from the Haiti earthquake that evaluates a novel object-based approach for characterizing earthquake induced surface effects of liquefaction against a traditional pixel based change technique. Our technique, which combines object-oriented change detection with discriminant/categorical functions, shows the power of distinguishing earthquake-induced surface effects from changes in buildings using the object properties concavity, convexity, orthogonality and rectangularity. Our results suggest that object-based analysis holds promise in automatically extracting earthquake-induced damages from high-resolution aerial/satellite imagery.

Injection-induced earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellsworth, William L.

2013-01-01

Earthquakes in unusual locations have become an important topic of discussion in both North America and Europe, owing to the concern that industrial activity could cause damaging earthquakes. It has long been understood that earthquakes can be induced by impoundment of reservoirs, surface and underground mining, withdrawal of fluids and gas from the subsurface, and injection of fluids into underground formations. Injection-induced earthquakes have, in particular, become a focus of discussion as the application of hydraulic fracturing to tight shale formations is enabling the production of oil and gas from previously unproductive formations. Earthquakes can be induced as part of the process to stimulate the production from tight shale formations, or by disposal of wastewater associated with stimulation and production. Here, I review recent seismic activity that may be associated with industrial activity, with a focus on the disposal of wastewater by injection in deep wells; assess the scientific understanding of induced earthquakes; and discuss the key scientific challenges to be met for assessing this hazard.

SELENA - An open-source tool for seismic risk and loss assessment using a logic tree computation procedure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molina, S.; Lang, D. H.; Lindholm, C. D.

2010-03-01

The era of earthquake risk and loss estimation basically began with the seminal paper on hazard by Allin Cornell in 1968. Following the 1971 San Fernando earthquake, the first studies placed strong emphasis on the prediction of human losses (number of casualties and injured used to estimate the needs in terms of health care and shelters in the immediate aftermath of a strong event). In contrast to these early risk modeling efforts, later studies have focused on the disruption of the serviceability of roads, telecommunications and other important lifeline systems. In the 1990s, the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS) developed a tool (HAZUS ®99) for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), where the goal was to incorporate the best quantitative methodology in earthquake loss estimates. Herein, the current version of the open-source risk and loss estimation software SELENA v4.1 is presented. While using the spectral displacement-based approach (capacity spectrum method), this fully self-contained tool analytically computes the degree of damage on specific building typologies as well as the associated economic losses and number of casualties. The earthquake ground shaking estimates for SELENA v4.1 can be calculated or provided in three different ways: deterministic, probabilistic or based on near-real-time data. The main distinguishing feature of SELENA compared to other risk estimation software tools is that it is implemented in a 'logic tree' computation scheme which accounts for uncertainties of any input (e.g., scenario earthquake parameters, ground-motion prediction equations, soil models) or inventory data (e.g., building typology, capacity curves and fragility functions). The data used in the analysis is assigned with a decimal weighting factor defining the weight of the respective branch of the logic tree. The weighting of the input parameters accounts for the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties that will always follow the necessary

The prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder among adult earthquake survivors in Peru.

PubMed

Cairo, Javier B; Dutta, Suparna; Nawaz, Haq; Hashmi, Shahrukh; Kasl, Stanislav; Bellido, Edgar

2010-03-01

To estimate the prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and to assess the relationships between PTSD and demographic and disaster-related factors. Five months after a magnitude 8.0 earthquake struck the city of Pisco, Peru, we conducted a cross-sectional study using demographic questions, the PTSD Checklist, and a translated version of the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire. We used stratified sampling to randomly enroll subjects in Pisco and its annexes. We then used bivariate and multivariate analyses to find correlations between PTSD and demographic and disaster-related factors. We interviewed 298 adult earthquake survivors and detected 75 cases of PTSD (prevalence 25.2%; 95% confidence interval, 20.2%-30.1%). In the bivariate analysis, PTSD was significantly associated with female sex, loss of church, food and water shortages immediately after the earthquake, joblessness, injuries, loss of a relative or friend, lack of clean drinking water or appropriate sleeping conditions 5 months after the earthquake, and low levels of perceived support from family and friends. In the multivariate analysis, only female sex, food and water shortages, loss of church, injuries, and low levels of perceived support from family and friends were independently associated with PTSD. PTSD affected about a quarter of Pisco's population. Its impact was moderate to severe when compared with other disasters worldwide and in Latin America.

Likely Human Losses in Future Earthquakes in Central Myanmar, Beyond the Northern end of the M9.3 Sumatra Rupture of 2004

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wyss, B. M.; Wyss, M.

2007-12-01

We estimate that the city of Rangoon and adjacent provinces (Rangoon, Rakhine, Ayeryarwady, Bago) represent an earthquake risk similar in severity to that of Istanbul and the Marmara Sea region. After the M9.3 Sumatra earthquake of December 2004 that ruptured to a point north of the Andaman Islands, the likelihood of additional ruptures in the direction of Myanmar and within Myanmar is increased. This assumption is especially plausible since M8.2 and M7.9 earthquakes in September 2007 extended the 2005 ruptures to the south. Given the dense population of the aforementioned provinces, and the fact that historically earthquakes of M7.5 class have occurred there (in 1858, 1895 and three in 1930), it would not be surprising, if similar sized earthquakes would occur in the coming decades. Considering that we predicted the extent of human losses in the M7.6 Kashmir earthquake of October 2005 approximately correctly six month before it occurred, it seems reasonable to attempt to estimate losses in future large to great earthquakes in central Myanmar and along its coast of the Bay of Bengal. We have calculated the expected number of fatalities for two classes of events: (1) M8 ruptures offshore (between the Andaman Islands and the Myanmar coast, and along Myanmar's coast of the Bay of Bengal. (2) M7.5 repeats of the historic earthquakes that occurred in the aforementioned years. These calculations are only order of magnitude estimates because all necessary input parameters are poorly known. The population numbers, the condition of the building stock, the regional attenuation law, the local site amplification and of course the parameters of future earthquakes can only be estimated within wide ranges. For this reason, we give minimum and maximum estimates, both within approximate error limits. We conclude that the M8 earthquakes located offshore are expected to be less harmful than the M7.5 events on land: For M8 events offshore, the minimum number of fatalities is estimated

Public Release of Estimated Impact-Based Earthquake Alerts - An Update to the U.S. Geological Survey PAGER System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wald, D. J.; Jaiswal, K. S.; Marano, K.; Hearne, M.; Earle, P. S.; So, E.; Garcia, D.; Hayes, G. P.; Mathias, S.; Applegate, D.; Bausch, D.

2010-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has begun publicly releasing earthquake alerts for significant earthquakes around the globe based on estimates of potential casualties and economic losses. These estimates should significantly enhance the utility of the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system that has been providing estimated ShakeMaps and computing population exposures to specific shaking intensities since 2007. Quantifying earthquake impacts and communicating loss estimates (and their uncertainties) to the public has been the culmination of several important new and evolving components of the system. First, the operational PAGER system now relies on empirically-based loss models that account for estimated shaking hazard, population exposure, and employ country-specific fatality and economic loss functions derived using analyses of losses due to recent and past earthquakes. In some countries, our empirical loss models are informed in part by PAGER’s semi-empirical and analytical loss models, and building exposure and vulnerability data sets, all of which are being developed in parallel to the empirical approach. Second, human and economic loss information is now portrayed as a supplement to existing intensity/exposure content on both PAGER summary alert (available via cell phone/email) messages and web pages. Loss calculations also include estimates of the economic impact with respect to the country’s gross domestic product. Third, in order to facilitate rapid and appropriate earthquake responses based on our probable loss estimates, in early 2010 we proposed a four-level Earthquake Impact Scale (EIS). Instead of simply issuing median estimates for losses—which can be easily misunderstood and misused—this scale provides ranges of losses from which potential responders can gauge expected overall impact from strong shaking. EIS is based on two complementary criteria: the estimated cost of damage, which is most suitable for U

Estimation of vulnerability functions based on a global earthquake damage database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spence, R. J. S.; Coburn, A. W.; Ruffle, S. J.

2009-04-01

casualties will also be assembled. The database also contains analytical tools enabling data from similar locations, building classes or ground motion levels to be assembled and thus vulnerability relationships derived for any chosen ground motion parameter, for a given class of building, and for particular countries or regions. The paper presents examples of vulnerability relationships for particular classes of buildings and regions of the world, together with the estimated uncertainty ranges. It will discuss the applicability of such vulnerability functions in earthquake loss assessment for insurance purposes or for earthquake risk mitigation.

The Global Earthquake Model - Past, Present, Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Stein, Ross

2014-05-01

Source Models • Ground Motion (Attenuation) Models • Physical Exposure Models • Physical Vulnerability Models • Composite Index Models (social vulnerability, resilience, indirect loss) • Repository of national hazard models • Uniform global hazard model Armed with these tools and databases, stakeholders worldwide will then be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Earthquake hazard information will be able to be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for risk assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a truly integrated view of seismic risk, users will be able to add social vulnerability and resilience indices and estimate the costs and benefits of different risk management measures. Having finished its first five-year Work Program at the end of 2013, GEM has entered into its second five-year Work Program 2014-2018. Beyond maintaining and enhancing the products developed in Work Program 1, the second phase will have a stronger focus on regional hazard and risk activities, and on seeing GEM products used for risk assessment and risk management practice at regional, national and local scales. Furthermore GEM intends to partner with similar initiatives underway for other natural perils, which together are needed to meet the need for advanced risk assessment methods, tools and data to underpin global disaster risk reduction efforts under the Hyogo Framework for Action #2 to be launched in Sendai/Japan in spring 2015

[High Resolution Remote Sensing Monitoring and Assessment of Secondary Geological Disasters Triggered by the Lushan Earthquake].

PubMed

Wang, Fu-tao; Wang, Shi-xin; Zhou, Yi; Wang, Li-tao; Yan, Fu-li; Li, Wen-jun; Liu, Xiong-fei

2016-01-01

The secondary geological disasters triggered by the Lushan earthquake on April 20, 2013, such as landslides, collapses, debris flows, etc., had caused great casualties and losses. We monitored the number and spatial distribution of the secondary geological disasters in the earthquake-hit area from airborne remote sensing images, which covered areas about 3 100 km2. The results showed that Lushan County, Baoxing County and Tianquan County were most severely affected; there were 164, 126 and 71 secondary geological disasters in these regions. Moreover, we analyzed the relationship between the distribution of the secondary geological disasters, geological structure and intensity. The results indicate that there were 4 high-hazard zones in the monitored area, one focused within six kilometers from the epicenter, and others are distributed along the two main fault zones of the Longmen Mountain. More than 97% secondary geological disasters occurred in zones with a seismic intensity of VII to IX degrees, a slope between 25 A degrees and 50 A degrees, and an altitude of between 800 and 2 000 m. At last, preliminary suggestions were proposed for the rehabilitation and reconstruction planning of Lushan earthquake. According to the analysis result, airborne and space borne remote sensing can be used accurately and effectively in almost real-time to monitor and assess secondary geological disasters, providing a scientific basis and decision making support for government emergency command and post-disaster reconstruction.

Playing against nature: improving earthquake hazard mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stein, S. A.; Stein, J.

2012-12-01

The great 2011 Tohoku earthquake dramatically demonstrated the need to improve earthquake and tsunami hazard assessment and mitigation policies. The earthquake was much larger than predicted by hazard models, and the resulting tsunami overtopped coastal defenses, causing more than 15,000 deaths and $210 billion damage. Hence if and how such defenses should be rebuilt is a challenging question, because the defences fared poorly and building ones to withstand tsunamis as large as March's is too expensive,. A similar issue arises along the Nankai Trough to the south, where new estimates warning of tsunamis 2-5 times higher than in previous models raise the question of what to do, given that the timescale on which such events may occur is unknown. Thus in the words of economist H. Hori, "What should we do in face of uncertainty? Some say we should spend our resources on present problems instead of wasting them on things whose results are uncertain. Others say we should prepare for future unknown disasters precisely because they are uncertain". Thus society needs strategies to mitigate earthquake and tsunami hazards that make economic and societal sense, given that our ability to assess these hazards is poor, as illustrated by highly destructive earthquakes that often occur in areas predicted by hazard maps to be relatively safe. Conceptually, we are playing a game against nature "of which we still don't know all the rules" (Lomnitz, 1989). Nature chooses tsunami heights or ground shaking, and society selects the strategy to minimize the total costs of damage plus mitigation costs. As in any game of chance, we maximize our expectation value by selecting the best strategy, given our limited ability to estimate the occurrence and effects of future events. We thus outline a framework to find the optimal level of mitigation by balancing its cost against the expected damages, recognizing the uncertainties in the hazard estimates. This framework illustrates the role of the

Visual inspection & capacity assessment of earthquake damaged reinforced concrete bridge elements.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-11-01

The overarching objective of this project was to produce standard procedures and associated training materials, for the conduct of post-earthquake visual inspection and capacity assessment of damaged reinforced concrete (RC) bridges where the procedu...

Hospital Employee Willingness to Work during Earthquakes Versus Pandemics.

PubMed

Charney, Rachel L; Rebmann, Terri; Flood, Robert G

2015-11-01

Research indicates that licensed health care workers are less willing to work during a pandemic and that the willingness of nonlicensed staff to work has had limited assessment. We sought to assess and compare the willingness to work in all hospital workers during pandemics and earthquakes. An online survey was distributed to Missouri hospital employees. Participants were presented with 2 disaster scenarios (pandemic influenza and earthquake); willingness, ability, and barriers to work were measured. T tests compared willingness to work during a pandemic vs. an earthquake. Multivariate linear regression analyses were conducted to describe factors associated with a higher willingness to work. One thousand eight hundred twenty-two employees participated (15% response rate). More willingness to work was reported for an earthquake than a pandemic (93.3% vs. 84.8%; t = 17.1; p < 0.001). Significantly fewer respondents reported the ability to work during a pandemic (83.5%; t = 17.1; p < 0.001) or an earthquake (89.8%; t = 13.3; p < 0.001) compared to their willingness to work. From multivariate linear regression, factors associated with pandemic willingness to work were as follows: 1) no children ≤3 years of age; 2) older children; 3) working full-time; 4) less concern for family; 5) less fear of job loss; and 6) vaccine availability. Earthquake willingness factors included: 1) not having children with special needs and 2) not working a different role. Improving care for dependent family members, worker protection, cross training, and job importance education may increase willingness to work during disasters. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing the Utility of and Improving USGS Earthquake Hazards Program Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomberg, J. S.; Scott, M.; Weaver, C. S.; Sherrod, B. L.; Bailey, D.; Gibbons, D.

2010-12-01

A major focus of the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) has been the development and implementation of products and information meant to improve earthquake hazard assessment, mitigation and response for a myriad of users. Many of these products rely on the data and efforts of the EHP and its partner scientists who are building the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS). We report on a project meant to assess the utility of many of these products and information, conducted collaboratively by EHP scientists and Pierce County Department of Emergency Management staff. We have conducted focus group listening sessions with members of the engineering, business, medical, media, risk management, and emergency response communities as well as participated in the planning and implementation of earthquake exercises in the Pacific Northwest. Thus far we have learned that EHP and ANSS products satisfy many of the needs of engineers and some planners, and information is widely used by media and the general public. However, some important communities do not use these products despite their intended application for their purposes, particularly county and local emergency management and business communities. We have learned that products need to convey more clearly the impact of earthquakes, in everyday terms. Users also want products (e.g. maps, forecasts, etc.) that can be incorporated into tools and systems they use regularly. Rather than simply building products and posting them on websites, products need to be actively marketed and training provided. We suggest that engaging users prior to and during product development will enhance their usage and effectiveness.

Impact of Short-term Changes In Earthquake Hazard on Risk In Christchurch, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyst, M.

2012-12-01

The recent Mw 7.1, 4 September 2010 Darfield, and Mw 6.2, 22 February 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes and the following aftershock activity completely changed the existing view on earthquake hazard of the Christchurch area. Not only have several faults been added to the New Zealand fault database, the main shocks were also followed by significant increases in seismicity due to high aftershock activity throughout the Christchurch region that is still on-going. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) models take into account a stochastic event set, the full range of possible events that can cause damage or loss at a particular location. This allows insurance companies to look at their risk profiles via average annual losses (AAL) and loss-exceedance curves. The loss-exceedance curve is derived from the full suite of seismic events that could impact the insured exposure and plots the probability of exceeding a particular loss level over a certain period. Insurers manage their risk by focusing on a certain return period exceedance benchmark, typically between the 100 and 250 year return period loss level, and then reserve the amount of money needed to account for that return period loss level, their so called capacity. This component of risk management is not too sensitive to short-term changes in risk due to aftershock seismicity, as it is mostly dominated by longer-return period, larger magnitude, more damaging events. However, because the secondairy uncertainties are taken into account when calculating the exceedance probability, even the longer return period losses can still experience significant impact from the inclusion of time-dependent earthquake behavior. AAL is calculated by summing the product of the expected loss level and the annual rate for all events in the event set that cause damage or loss at a particular location. This relatively simple metric is an important factor in setting the annual premiums. By annualizing the expected losses

Geodetic Imaging for Rapid Assessment of Earthquakes: Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, W. E.; Shrestha, R. L.; Glennie, C. L.; Sartori, M.; Fernandez-Diaz, J.; National CenterAirborne Laser Mapping Operational Center

2010-12-01

To the residents of an area struck by a strong earthquake quantitative information on damage to the infrastructure, and its attendant impact on relief and recovery efforts, is urgent and of primary concern. To earth scientists a strong earthquake offers an opportunity to learn more about earthquake mechanisms, and to compare their models with the real world, in hopes of one day being able to accurately predict the precise locations, magnitudes, and times of large (and potentially disastrous) earthquakes. Airborne laser scanning (also referred to as airborne LiDAR or Airborne Laser Swath Mapping) is particularly well suited for rapid assessment of earthquakes, both for immediately estimating the damage to infrastructure and for providing information for the scientific study of earthquakes. ALS observations collected at low altitude (500—1000m) from a relatively slow (70—100m/sec) aircraft can provide dense (5—15 points/m2) sets of surface features (buildings, vegetation, ground), extending over hundreds of square kilometers with turn around times of several hours to a few days. The actual response time to any given event depends on several factors, including such bureaucratic issues as approval of funds, export license formalities, and clearance to fly over the area to be mapped, and operational factors such as the deployment of the aircraft and ground teams may also take a number of days for remote locations. Of course the need for immediate mapping of earthquake damage generally is not as urgent in remote regions with less infrastructure and few inhabitants. During August 16-19, 2010 the National Center for Airborne Laser Mapping (NCALM) mapped the area affected by the magnitude 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah Earthquake (Northern Baja California Earthquake), which occurred on April 4, 2010, and was felt throughout southern California, Arizona, Nevada, and Baja California North, Mexico. From initial ground observations the fault rupture appeared to extend 75 km

Modified Mercalli Intensity for scenario earthquakes in Evansville, Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cramer, Chris; Haase, Jennifer; Boyd, Oliver

2012-01-01

Evansville, Indiana, has experienced minor damage from earthquakes several times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and the fact that Evansville is close to the Wabash Valley and New Madrid seismic zones, there is concern about the hazards from earthquakes. Earthquakes currently cannot be predicted, but scientists can estimate how strongly the ground is likely to shake as a result of an earthquake. Earthquake-hazard maps provide one way of conveying such estimates of strong ground shaking and will help the region prepare for future earthquakes and reduce earthquake-caused losses.

Seismic hazard assessment over time: Modelling earthquakes in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Chung-Han; Wang, Yu; Wang, Yu-Ju; Lee, Ya-Ting

2017-04-01

To assess the seismic hazard with temporal change in Taiwan, we develop a new approach, combining both the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) model and the Coulomb stress change, and implement the seismogenic source parameters by the Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM). The BPT model was adopted to describe the rupture recurrence intervals of the specific fault sources, together with the time elapsed since the last fault-rupture to derive their long-term rupture probability. We also evaluate the short-term seismicity rate change based on the static Coulomb stress interaction between seismogenic sources. By considering above time-dependent factors, our new combined model suggests an increased long-term seismic hazard in the vicinity of active faults along the western Coastal Plain and the Longitudinal Valley, where active faults have short recurrence intervals and long elapsed time since their last ruptures, and/or short-term elevated hazard levels right after the occurrence of large earthquakes due to the stress triggering effect. The stress enhanced by the February 6th, 2016, Meinong ML 6.6 earthquake also significantly increased rupture probabilities of several neighbouring seismogenic sources in Southwestern Taiwan and raised hazard level in the near future. Our approach draws on the advantage of incorporating long- and short-term models, to provide time-dependent earthquake probability constraints. Our time-dependent model considers more detailed information than any other published models. It thus offers decision-makers and public officials an adequate basis for rapid evaluations of and response to future emergency scenarios such as victim relocation and sheltering.

Integrating Machine Learning into a Crowdsourced Model for Earthquake-Induced Damage Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rebbapragada, Umaa; Oommen, Thomas

2011-01-01

On January 12th, 2010, a catastrophic 7.0M earthquake devastated the country of Haiti. In the aftermath of an earthquake, it is important to rapidly assess damaged areas in order to mobilize the appropriate resources. The Haiti damage assessment effort introduced a promising model that uses crowdsourcing to map damaged areas in freely available remotely-sensed data. This paper proposes the application of machine learning methods to improve this model. Specifically, we apply work on learning from multiple, imperfect experts to the assessment of volunteer reliability, and propose the use of image segmentation to automate the detection of damaged areas. We wrap both tasks in an active learning framework in order to shift volunteer effort from mapping a full catalog of images to the generation of high-quality training data. We hypothesize that the integration of machine learning into this model improves its reliability, maintains the speed of damage assessment, and allows the model to scale to higher data volumes.

The application of the geography census data in seismic hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Shen; Ying, Zhang

2017-04-01

Limited by basic data timeliness to earthquake emergency database in Sichuan province, after the earthquake disaster assessment results and the actual damage there is a certain gap. In 2015, Sichuan completed the province census for the first time which including topography, traffic, vegetation coverage, water area, desert and bare ground, traffic network, the census residents and facilities, geographical unit, geological hazard as well as the Lushan earthquake-stricken area's town planning construction and ecological environment restoration. On this basis, combining with the existing achievements of basic geographic information data and high resolution image data, supplemented by remote sensing image interpretation and geological survey, Carried out distribution and change situation of statistical analysis and information extraction for earthquake disaster hazard-affected body elements such as surface coverage, roads, structures infrastructure in Lushan county before 2013 after 2015. At the same time, achieved the transformation and updating from geographical conditions census data to earthquake emergency basic data through research their data type, structure and relationship. Finally, based on multi-source disaster information including hazard-affected body changed data and Lushan 7.0 magnitude earthquake CORS network coseismal displacement field, etc. obtaining intensity control points through information fusion. Then completed the seismic influence field correction and assessed earthquake disaster again through Sichuan earthquake relief headquarters technology platform. Compared the new assessment result，original assessment result and actual earthquake disaster loss which shows that the revised evaluation result is more close to the actual earthquake disaster loss. In the future can realize geographical conditions census data to earthquake emergency basic data's normalized updates, ensure the timeliness to earthquake emergency database meanwhile improve the

Dancing Earthquake Science Assists Recovery from the Christchurch Earthquakes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Egan, Candice J.; Quigley, Mark C.

2015-01-01

The 2010-2012 Christchurch (Canterbury) earthquakes in New Zealand caused loss of life and psychological distress in residents throughout the region. In 2011, student dancers of the Hagley Dance Company and dance professionals choreographed the performance "Move: A Seismic Journey" for the Christchurch Body Festival that explored…

Prototype operational earthquake prediction system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spall, Henry

1986-01-01

An objective if the U.S. Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 is to introduce into all regions of the country that are subject to large and moderate earthquakes, systems for predicting earthquakes and assessing earthquake risk. In 1985, the USGS developed for the Secretary of the Interior a program for implementation of a prototype operational earthquake prediction system in southern California.

Multi-source and multi-angle remote sensing image data collection, application and sharing of Beichuan National Earthquake Ruins Museum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Yueguan; Wang, Wei; Wen, Qi; Huang, He; Lin, Jingli; Zhang, Wei

2015-12-01

Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake that occurred on May 12, 2008 brought huge casualties and property losses to the Chinese people, and Beichuan County was destroyed in the earthquake. In order to leave a site for commemorate of the people, and for science propaganda and research of earthquake science, Beichuan National Earthquake Ruins Museum has been built on the ruins of Beichuan county. Based on the demand for digital preservation of the earthquake ruins park and collection of earthquake damage assessment of research and data needs, we set up a data set of Beichuan National Earthquake Ruins Museum, including satellite remote sensing image, airborne remote sensing image, ground photogrammetry data and ground acquisition data. At the same time, in order to make a better service for earthquake science research, we design the sharing ideas and schemes for this scientific data set.

A new method for the production of social fragility functions and the result of its use in worldwide fatality loss estimation for earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann

2014-05-01

A review of over 200 fatality models over the past 50 years for earthquake loss estimation from various authors has identified key parameters that influence fatality estimation in each of these models. These are often very specific and cannot be readily adapted globally. In the doctoral dissertation of the author, a new method is used for regression of fatalities to intensity using loss functions based not only on fatalities, but also using population models and other socioeconomic parameters created through time for every country worldwide for the period 1900-2013. A calibration of functions was undertaken from 1900-2008, and each individual quake analysed from 2009-2013 in real-time, in conjunction with www.earthquake-report.com. Using the CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database containing socioeconomic loss information for 7208 damaging earthquake events from 1900-2013 including disaggregation of secondary effects, fatality estimates for over 2035 events have been re-examined from 1900-2013. In addition, 99 of these events have detailed data for the individual cities and towns or have been reconstructed to create a death rate as a percentage of population. Many historical isoseismal maps and macroseismic intensity datapoint surveys collected globally, have been digitised and modelled covering around 1353 of these 2035 fatal events, to include an estimate of population, occupancy and socioeconomic climate at the time of the event at each intensity bracket. In addition, 1651 events without fatalities but causing damage have also been examined in this way. The production of socioeconomic and engineering indices such as HDI and building vulnerability has been undertaken on a country-level and state/province-level leading to a dataset allowing regressions not only using a static view of risk, but also allowing for the change in the socioeconomic climate between the earthquake events to be undertaken. This means that a year 1920 event in a country, will not simply be

The TRIPOD e-learning Platform for the Training of Earthquake Safety Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coppari, S.; Di Pasquale, G.; Goretti, A.; Papa, F.; Papa, S.; Paoli, G.; Pizza, A. G.; Severino, M.

2008-07-01

The paper summarizes the results of the in progress EU Project titled TRIPOD (Training Civil Engineers on Post-Earthquake Safety Assessment of Damaged Buildings), funded under the Leonardo Da Vinci program. The main theme of the project is the development of a methodology and a learning platform for the training of technicians involved in post-earthquake building safety inspections. In the event of a catastrophic earthquake, emergency building inspections constitute a major undertaking with severe social impact. Given the inevitable chaotic conditions and the urgent need of a great number of specialized individuals to carry out inspections, past experience indicates that inspection teams are often formed in an adhoc manner, under stressful conditions, at a varying levels of technical expertise and experience, sometime impairing the reliability and consistency of the inspection results. Furthermore each Country has its own building damage and safety assessment methodology, developed according to its experience, laws, building technology and seismicity. This holds also for the partners participating to the project (Greece, Italy, Turkey, Cyprus), that all come from seismically sensitive Mediterranean countries. The project aims at alleviating the above shortcomings by designing and developing a training methodology and e-platform, forming a complete training program targeted at inspection engineers, specialized personnel and civil protection agencies. The e-learning platform will provide flexible and friendly authoring mechanisms, self-teaching and assessment capabilities, course and trainee management, etc. Courses will be also made available as stand-alone multimedia applications on CD and in the form of a complete pocket handbook. Moreover the project will offer the possibility of upgrading different experiences and practices: a first step towards the harmonization of methodologies and tools of different Countries sharing similar problems. Finally, through wide

Money matters: Rapid post-earthquake financial decision-making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wald, David J.; Franco, Guillermo

2016-01-01

Post-earthquake financial decision-making is a realm beyond that of many people. In the immediate aftermath of a damaging earthquake, billions of dollars of relief, recovery, and insurance funds are in the balance through new financial instruments that allow those with resources to hedge against disasters and those at risk to limit their earthquake losses and receive funds for response and recovery.

Coseismic Stress Changes of the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura, New Zealand, Earthquake and Its Implication for Seismic Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shan, B.; LIU, C.; Xiong, X.

2017-12-01

On 13 November 2016, an earthquake with moment magnitude Mw 7.8 stroke North Canterbury, New Zealand as result of shallow oblique-reverse faulting close to boundary between the Pacific and Australian plates in the South Island, collapsing buildings and resulting in significant economic losses. The distribution of early aftershocks extended about 150 km to the north-northeast of the mainshock, suggesting the potential of earthquake triggering in this complex fault system. Strong aftershocks following major earthquakes present significant challenges for locals' reconstruction and rehabilitation. The regions around the mainshock may also suffer from earthquakes triggered by the Kaikoura earthquake. Therefore, it is significantly important to outline the regions with potential aftershocks and high seismic hazard to mitigate future disasters. Moreover, this earthquake ruptured at least 13 separate faults, and provided an opportunity to test the theory of earthquake stress triggering for a complex fault system. In this study, we calculated the coseismic Coulomb Failure Stress changes (ΔCFS) caused by the Kaikoura earthquake on the hypocenters of both historical earthquakes and aftershocks of this event with focal mechanisms. Our results show that the percentage of earthquake with positive ΔCFS within the aftershocks is higher than that of historical earthquakes. It means that the Kaikoura earthquake effectively influence the seismicity in this region. The aftershocks of Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake are mainly located in the regions with positive ΔCFS. The aftershock distributions can be well explained by the coseismic ΔCFS. Furthermore, earthquake-induced ΔCFS on the surrounding active faults was further discussed. The northeastern Alpine fault, the southwest part of North Canterbury Fault, parts of the Marlborough fault system and the southwest ends of the Kapiti-Manawatu faults are significantly stressed by the Kaikoura earthquake. The earthquake-induced stress

Hazard Assessment and Early Warning of Tsunamis: Lessons from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satake, K.

2012-12-01

. Tsunami hazard assessments or long-term forecast of earthquakes have not considered such a triggering or simultaneous occurrence of different types of earthquakes. The large tsunami at the Fukushima nuclear power station was due to the combination of the deep and shallow slip. Disaster prevention for low-frequency but large-scale hazard must be considered. The Japanese government established a general policy to for two levels: L1 and L2. The L2 tsunamis are the largest possible tsunamis with low frequency of occurrence, but cause devastating disaster once they occur. For such events, saving people's lives is the first priority and soft measures such as tsunami hazard maps, evacuation facilities or disaster education will be prepared. The L1 tsunamis are expected to occur more frequently, typically once in a few decades, for which hard countermeasures such as breakwater must be prepared to protect lives and properties of residents as well as economic and industrial activities.

Satellite-based emergency mapping using optical imagery: experience and reflections from the 2015 Nepal earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Jack G.; Rosser, Nick J.; Kincey, Mark E.; Benjamin, Jessica; Oven, Katie J.; Densmore, Alexander L.; Milledge, David G.; Robinson, Tom R.; Jordan, Colm A.; Dijkstra, Tom A.

2018-01-01

Landslides triggered by large earthquakes in mountainous regions contribute significantly to overall earthquake losses and pose a major secondary hazard that can persist for months or years. While scientific investigations of coseismic landsliding are increasingly common, there is no protocol for rapid (hours-to-days) humanitarian-facing landslide assessment and no published recognition of what is possible and what is useful to compile immediately after the event. Drawing on the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal, we consider how quickly a landslide assessment based upon manual satellite-based emergency mapping (SEM) can be realistically achieved and review the decisions taken by analysts to ascertain the timeliness and type of useful information that can be generated. We find that, at present, many forms of landslide assessment are too slow to generate relative to the speed of a humanitarian response, despite increasingly rapid access to high-quality imagery. Importantly, the value of information on landslides evolves rapidly as a disaster response develops, so identifying the purpose, timescales, and end users of a post-earthquake landslide assessment is essential to inform the approach taken. It is clear that discussions are needed on the form and timing of landslide assessments, and how best to present and share this information, before rather than after an earthquake strikes. In this paper, we share the lessons learned from the Gorkha earthquake, with the aim of informing the approach taken by scientists to understand the evolving landslide hazard in future events and the expectations of the humanitarian community involved in disaster response.

Housing type after the Great East Japan Earthquake and loss of motor function in elderly victims: a prospective observational study

PubMed Central

Tomata, Yasutake; Kogure, Mana; Sugawara, Yumi; Watanabe, Takashi; Asaka, Tadayoshi; Tsuji, Ichiro

2016-01-01

Objective Previous studies have reported that elderly victims of natural disasters might be prone to a subsequent decline in motor function. Victims of the Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) relocated to a wide range of different types of housing. As the evacuee lifestyle varies according to the type of housing available to them, their degree of motor function loss might also vary accordingly. However, the association between postdisaster housing type and loss of motor function has never been investigated. The present study was conducted to investigate the association between housing type after the GEJE and loss of motor function in elderly victims. Methods We conducted a prospective observational study of 478 Japanese individuals aged ≥65 years living in Miyagi Prefecture, one of the areas most significantly affected by the GEJE. Information on housing type after the GEJE, motor function as assessed by the Kihon checklist and other lifestyle factors was collected by interview and questionnaire in 2012. Information on motor function was then collected 1 year later. The multiple logistic regression model was used to estimate the multivariate adjusted ORs of motor function loss. Results We classified 53 (11.1%) of the respondents as having loss of motor function. The multivariate adjusted OR (with 95% CI) for loss of motor function among participants who were living in privately rented temporary housing/rental housing was 2.62 (1.10 to 6.24) compared to those who had remained in the same housing as that before the GEJE, and this increase was statistically significant. Conclusions The proportion of individuals with loss of motor function was higher among persons who had relocated to privately rented temporary housing/rental housing after the GEJE. This result may reflect the influence of a move to a living environment where few acquaintances are located (lack of social capital). PMID:27810976

East Meets West: An Earthquake in India Helps Hazard Assessment in the Central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2002-01-01

Although geographically distant, the State of Gujarat in India bears many geological similarities to the Mississippi Valley in the Central United States. The Mississippi Valley contains the New Madrid seismic zone that, during the winter of 1811-1812, produced the three largest historical earthquakes ever in the continental United States and remains the most seismically active region east of the Rocky Mountains. Large damaging earthquakes are rare in ‘intraplate’ settings like New Madrid and Gujarat, far from the boundaries of the world’s great tectonic plates. Long-lasting evidence left by these earthquakes is subtle (fig. 1). Thus, each intraplate earthquake provides unique opportunities to make huge advances in our ability to assess and understand the hazards posed by such events.

Prediction of earthquake-triggered landslide event sizes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, Anika; Havenith, Hans-Balder; Schlögel, Romy

2016-04-01

Seismically induced landslides are a major environmental effect of earthquakes, which may significantly contribute to related losses. Moreover, in paleoseismology landslide event sizes are an important proxy for the estimation of the intensity and magnitude of past earthquakes and thus allowing us to improve seismic hazard assessment over longer terms. Not only earthquake intensity, but also factors such as the fault characteristics, topography, climatic conditions and the geological environment have a major impact on the intensity and spatial distribution of earthquake induced landslides. We present here a review of factors contributing to earthquake triggered slope failures based on an "event-by-event" classification approach. The objective of this analysis is to enable the short-term prediction of earthquake triggered landslide event sizes in terms of numbers and size of the affected area right after an earthquake event occurred. Five main factors, 'Intensity', 'Fault', 'Topographic energy', 'Climatic conditions' and 'Surface geology' were used to establish a relationship to the number and spatial extend of landslides triggered by an earthquake. The relative weight of these factors was extracted from published data for numerous past earthquakes; topographic inputs were checked in Google Earth and through geographic information systems. Based on well-documented recent earthquakes (e.g. Haiti 2010, Wenchuan 2008) and on older events for which reliable extensive information was available (e.g. Northridge 1994, Loma Prieta 1989, Guatemala 1976, Peru 1970) the combination and relative weight of the factors was calibrated. The calibrated factor combination was then applied to more than 20 earthquake events for which landslide distribution characteristics could be cross-checked. One of our main findings is that the 'Fault' factor, which is based on characteristics of the fault, the surface rupture and its location with respect to mountain areas, has the most important

33 CFR 222.4 - Reporting earthquake effects.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

.... This indicates the possibility that earthquake induced loads may not have been adequately considered in... misalignment of hydraulic control structures or gates. Induced dynamic loading on earth dams may result in loss... area where the earthquake is felt but causes no or insignificant damage (Modified Mercalli Intensity VI...

33 CFR 222.4 - Reporting earthquake effects.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

.... This indicates the possibility that earthquake induced loads may not have been adequately considered in... misalignment of hydraulic control structures or gates. Induced dynamic loading on earth dams may result in loss... area where the earthquake is felt but causes no or insignificant damage (Modified Mercalli Intensity VI...

A new methodology for earthquake damage assessment (MEDEA) and its application following the Molise Italy earthquake of 31.10.02

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuccaro, G.; Papa, F.; Spence, R.

2003-04-01

MEDEA is a multi-media tool designed to support earthquake damage assessment teams in Italy, by providing a means to train the technicians involved. In MEDEA, a range of alternative mechanisms of damage are defined and described, and the symptoms of each mechanism which can be recognised by the assessor are identified and linked to the related causative mechanisms. By using MEDEA, the assessor is guided by the experience of experts in the identification of the damage states and also of the separate mechanisms involved. This leads to a better safety assessment, a more homogeneous evaluation of damage across the affected area, and a great enhancement in the value of the damage statistics obtained in the assessment. The method is applied to both masonry and reinforced concrete buildings of the forms widespread in Italy and neighbouring countries. The paper will describe MEDEA and the context for which it was designed; and will present an example of its use in the M5.1 Molise earthquake of 31.10.02 in which 27 people died and which caused damage to hundreds of buildings.

Landslides Triggered by the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, C.

2018-04-01

The 25 April 2015 Gorkha Mw 7.8 earthquake in central Nepal caused a large number of casualties and serious property losses, and also induced numerous landslides. Based on visual interpretation of high-resolution optical satellite images pre- and post-earthquake and field reconnaissance, we delineated 47,200 coseismic landslides with a total distribution extent more than 35,000 km2, which occupy a total area about 110 km2. On the basis of a scale relationship between landslide area (A) and volume (V), V = 1.3147 × A1.2085, the total volume of the coseismic landslides is estimated to be about 9.64 × 108 m3. Calculation yields that the landslide number density, area density, and volume density are 1.32 km-2, 0.31 %, and 0.027 m, respectively. The spatial distribution of these landslides is consistent with that of the mainshock and aftershocks and the inferred causative fault, indicating the effect of the earthquake energy release on the pattern on coseismic landslides. This study provides a new, more detailed and objective inventory of the landslides triggered by the Gorkha earthquake, which would be significant for further study of genesis of coseismic landslides, hazard assessment and the long-term impact of the slope failure on the geological environment in the earthquake-scarred region.

Post-earthquake building safety inspection: Lessons from the Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marshall, J.; Jaiswal, Kishor; Gould, N.; Turner, F.; Lizundia, B.; Barnes, J.

2013-01-01

The authors discuss some of the unique aspects and lessons of the New Zealand post-earthquake building safety inspection program that was implemented following the Canterbury earthquake sequence of 2010–2011. The post-event safety assessment program was one of the largest and longest programs undertaken in recent times anywhere in the world. The effort engaged hundreds of engineering professionals throughout the country, and also sought expertise from outside, to perform post-earthquake structural safety inspections of more than 100,000 buildings in the city of Christchurch and the surrounding suburbs. While the building safety inspection procedure implemented was analogous to the ATC 20 program in the United States, many modifications were proposed and implemented in order to assess the large number of buildings that were subjected to strong and variable shaking during a period of two years. This note discusses some of the key aspects of the post-earthquake building safety inspection program and summarizes important lessons that can improve future earthquake response.

Integrating landslide and liquefaction hazard and loss estimates with existing USGS real-time earthquake information products

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allstadt, Kate E.; Thompson, Eric M.; Hearne, Mike; Nowicki Jessee, M. Anna; Zhu, J.; Wald, David J.; Tanyas, Hakan

2017-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has made significant progress toward the rapid estimation of shaking and shakingrelated losses through their Did You Feel It? (DYFI), ShakeMap, ShakeCast, and PAGER products. However, quantitative estimates of the extent and severity of secondary hazards (e.g., landsliding, liquefaction) are not currently included in scenarios and real-time post-earthquake products despite their significant contributions to hazard and losses for many events worldwide. We are currently running parallel global statistical models for landslides and liquefaction developed with our collaborators in testing mode, but much work remains in order to operationalize these systems. We are expanding our efforts in this area by not only improving the existing statistical models, but also by (1) exploring more sophisticated, physics-based models where feasible; (2) incorporating uncertainties; and (3) identifying and undertaking research and product development to provide useful landslide and liquefaction estimates and their uncertainties. Although our existing models use standard predictor variables that are accessible globally or regionally, including peak ground motions, topographic slope, and distance to water bodies, we continue to explore readily available proxies for rock and soil strength as well as other susceptibility terms. This work is based on the foundation of an expanding, openly available, case-history database we are compiling along with historical ShakeMaps for each event. The expected outcome of our efforts is a robust set of real-time secondary hazards products that meet the needs of a wide variety of earthquake information users. We describe the available datasets and models, developments currently underway, and anticipated products. 

Earthquake-Induced Building Damage Assessment Based on SAR Correlation and Texture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Lixia; Li, Qiang; Zhang, Jingfa

2016-08-01

Comparing with optical Remote Sensing, the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) has unique advantages as applied to seismic hazard monitoring and evaluation. SAR can be helpful in the whole process of after an earthquake, which can be divided into three stages. On the first stage, pre-disaster imagery provides history information of the attacked area. On the mid-term stage, up-to-date thematic maps are provided for disaster relief. On the later stage, information is provided to assist secondary disaster monitoring, post- disaster assessment and reconstruction second stage. In recent years, SAR has become an important data source of earthquake damage analysis and evaluation.Correlation between pre- and post-event SAR images is considered to be related with building damage. There will be a correlation decrease when the building collapsed in a shock. Whereas correlation decrease does not definitely indicate building changes. Correlation is also affected by perpendicular baseline, the ground coverage type, atmospheric change and other natural conditions, data processing and other factors. Building samples in the earthquake are used to discriminate the relation between damage degree and SAR correlation.

Understanding and responding to earthquake hazards

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raymond, C. A.; Lundgren, P. R.; Madsen, S. N.; Rundle, J. B.

2002-01-01

Advances in understanding of the earthquake cycle and in assessing earthquake hazards is a topic of great importance. Dynamic earthquake hazard assessments resolved for a range of spatial scales and time scales will allow a more systematic approach to prioritizing the retrofitting of vulnerable structures, relocating populations at risk, protecting lifelines, preparing for disasters, and educating the public.

Earthquake Emergency Education in Dushanbe, Tajikistan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mohadjer, Solmaz; Bendick, Rebecca; Halvorson, Sarah J.; Saydullaev, Umed; Hojiboev, Orifjon; Stickler, Christine; Adam, Zachary R.

2010-01-01

We developed a middle school earthquake science and hazards curriculum to promote earthquake awareness to students in the Central Asian country of Tajikistan. These materials include pre- and post-assessment activities, six science activities describing physical processes related to earthquakes, five activities on earthquake hazards and mitigation…

Source Spectra and Site Response for Two Indonesian Earthquakes: the Tasikmalaya and Kerinci Events of 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunawan, I.; Cummins, P. R.; Ghasemi, H.; Suhardjono, S.

2012-12-01

Indonesia is very prone to natural disasters, especially earthquakes, due to its location in a tectonically active region. In September-October 2009 alone, intraslab and crustal earthquakes caused the deaths of thousands of people, severe infrastructure destruction and considerable economic loss. Thus, both intraslab and crustal earthquakes are important sources of earthquake hazard in Indonesia. Analysis of response spectra for these intraslab and crustal earthquakes are needed to yield more detail about earthquake properties. For both types of earthquakes, we have analysed available Indonesian seismic waveform data to constrain source and path parameters - i.e., low frequency spectral level, Q, and corner frequency - at reference stations that appear to be little influenced by site response.. We have considered these analyses for the main shocks as well as several aftershocks. We obtain corner frequencies that are reasonably consistent with the constant stress drop hypothesis. Using these results, we consider using them to extract information about site response form other stations form the Indonesian strong motion network that appear to be strongly affected by site response. Such site response data, as well as earthquake source parameters, are important for assessing earthquake hazard in Indonesia.

Development of a global slope dataset for estimation of landslide occurrence resulting from earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verdin, Kristine L.; Godt, Jonathan W.; Funk, Christopher C.; Pedreros, Diego; Worstell, Bruce; Verdin, James

2007-01-01

Landslides resulting from earthquakes can cause widespread loss of life and damage to critical infrastructure. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed an alarm system, PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response), that aims to provide timely information to emergency relief organizations on the impact of earthquakes. Landslides are responsible for many of the damaging effects following large earthquakes in mountainous regions, and thus data defining the topographic relief and slope are critical to the PAGER system. A new global topographic dataset was developed to aid in rapidly estimating landslide potential following large earthquakes. We used the remotely-sensed elevation data collected as part of the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) to generate a slope dataset with nearly global coverage. Slopes from the SRTM data, computed at 3-arc-second resolution, were summarized at 30-arc-second resolution, along with statistics developed to describe the distribution of slope within each 30-arc-second pixel. Because there are many small areas lacking SRTM data and the northern limit of the SRTM mission was lat 60?N., statistical methods referencing other elevation data were used to fill the voids within the dataset and to extrapolate the data north of 60?. The dataset will be used in the PAGER system to rapidly assess the susceptibility of areas to landsliding following large earthquakes.

Development of an Earthquake Impact Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wald, D. J.; Marano, K. D.; Jaiswal, K. S.

2009-12-01

With the advent of the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, domestic (U.S.) and international earthquake responders are reconsidering their automatic alert and activation levels as well as their response procedures. To help facilitate rapid and proportionate earthquake response, we propose and describe an Earthquake Impact Scale (EIS) founded on two alerting criteria. One, based on the estimated cost of damage, is most suitable for domestic events; the other, based on estimated ranges of fatalities, is more appropriate for most global events. Simple thresholds, derived from the systematic analysis of past earthquake impact and response levels, turn out to be quite effective in communicating predicted impact and response level of an event, characterized by alerts of green (little or no impact), yellow (regional impact and response), orange (national-scale impact and response), and red (major disaster, necessitating international response). Corresponding fatality thresholds for yellow, orange, and red alert levels are 1, 100, and 1000, respectively. For damage impact, yellow, orange, and red thresholds are triggered by estimated losses exceeding 1M, 10M, and $1B, respectively. The rationale for a dual approach to earthquake alerting stems from the recognition that relatively high fatalities, injuries, and homelessness dominate in countries where vernacular building practices typically lend themselves to high collapse and casualty rates, and it is these impacts that set prioritization for international response. In contrast, it is often financial and overall societal impacts that trigger the level of response in regions or countries where prevalent earthquake resistant construction practices greatly reduce building collapse and associated fatalities. Any newly devised alert protocols, whether financial or casualty based, must be intuitive and consistent with established lexicons and procedures. In this analysis, we make an attempt

Risk and the neoliberal state: why post-Mitch lessons didn't reduce El Salvador's earthquake losses.

PubMed

Wisner, B

2001-09-01

Although El Salvador suffered light losses from Hurricane Mitch in 1998, it benefited from the increased international aid and encouragement for advance planning, especially mitigation and prevention interventions. Thus, one would have supposed, El Salvador would have been in a very advantageous position, able more easily than its economically crippled neighbours, Honduras and Nicaragua, to implement the 'lessons of Mitch'. A review of the recovery plan tabled by the El Salvador government following the earthquakes of early 2001 shows that despite the rhetoric in favour of 'learning the lessons of Mitch', very little mitigation and prevention had actually been put in place between the hurricane (1998) and the earthquakes (2001). The recovery plan is analysed in terms of the degree to which it deals with root causes of disaster vulnerability, namely, the economic and political marginality of much of the population and environmental degradation. An explanation for the failure to implement mitigation and preventive actions is traced to the adherence by the government of El Salvador to an extreme form of neoliberal, free market ideology, and the deep fissures and mistrust in a country that follow a long and bloody civil war.

Urban seismic risk assessment: statistical repair cost data and probable structural losses based on damage scenario—correlation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eleftheriadou, Anastasia K.; Baltzopoulou, Aikaterini D.; Karabinis, Athanasios I.

2016-06-01

The current seismic risk assessment is based on two discrete approaches, actual and probable, validating afterwards the produced results. In the first part of this research, the seismic risk is evaluated from the available data regarding the mean statistical repair/strengthening or replacement cost for the total number of damaged structures (180,427 buildings) after the 7/9/1999 Parnitha (Athens) earthquake. The actual evaluated seismic risk is afterwards compared to the estimated probable structural losses, which is presented in the second part of the paper, based on a damage scenario in the referring earthquake. The applied damage scenario is based on recently developed damage probability matrices (DPMs) from Athens (Greece) damage database. The seismic risk estimation refers to 750,085 buildings situated in the extended urban region of Athens. The building exposure is categorized in five typical structural types and represents 18.80 % of the entire building stock in Greece. The last information is provided by the National Statistics Service of Greece (NSSG) according to the 2000-2001 census. The seismic input is characterized by the ratio, a g/ a o, where a g is the regional peak ground acceleration (PGA) which is evaluated from the earlier estimated research macroseismic intensities, and a o is the PGA according to the hazard map of the 2003 Greek Seismic Code. Finally, the collected investigated financial data derived from different National Services responsible for the post-earthquake crisis management concerning the repair/strengthening or replacement costs or other categories of costs for the rehabilitation of earthquake victims (construction and function of settlements for earthquake homeless, rent supports, demolitions, shorings) are used to determine the final total seismic risk factor.

The TRIPOD e-learning Platform for the Training of Earthquake Safety Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coppari, S.; Di Pasquale, G.; Goretti, A.

2008-07-08

The paper summarizes the results of the in progress EU Project titled TRIPOD (Training Civil Engineers on Post-Earthquake Safety Assessment of Damaged Buildings), funded under the Leonardo Da Vinci program. The main theme of the project is the development of a methodology and a learning platform for the training of technicians involved in post-earthquake building safety inspections. In the event of a catastrophic earthquake, emergency building inspections constitute a major undertaking with severe social impact. Given the inevitable chaotic conditions and the urgent need of a great number of specialized individuals to carry out inspections, past experience indicates that inspectionmore » teams are often formed in an adhoc manner, under stressful conditions, at a varying levels of technical expertise and experience, sometime impairing the reliability and consistency of the inspection results. Furthermore each Country has its own building damage and safety assessment methodology, developed according to its experience, laws, building technology and seismicity. This holds also for the partners participating to the project (Greece, Italy, Turkey, Cyprus), that all come from seismically sensitive Mediterranean countries. The project aims at alleviating the above shortcomings by designing and developing a training methodology and e-platform, forming a complete training program targeted at inspection engineers, specialized personnel and civil protection agencies. The e-learning platform will provide flexible and friendly authoring mechanisms, self-teaching and assessment capabilities, course and trainee management, etc. Courses will be also made available as stand-alone multimedia applications on CD and in the form of a complete pocket handbook. Moreover the project will offer the possibility of upgrading different experiences and practices: a first step towards the harmonization of methodologies and tools of different Countries sharing similar problems. Finally, through

Calibration and validation of earthquake catastrophe models. Case study: Impact Forecasting Earthquake Model for Algeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trendafiloski, G.; Gaspa Rebull, O.; Ewing, C.; Podlaha, A.; Magee, B.

2012-04-01

Calibration and validation are crucial steps in the production of the catastrophe models for the insurance industry in order to assure the model's reliability and to quantify its uncertainty. Calibration is needed in all components of model development including hazard and vulnerability. Validation is required to ensure that the losses calculated by the model match those observed in past events and which could happen in future. Impact Forecasting, the catastrophe modelling development centre of excellence within Aon Benfield, has recently launched its earthquake model for Algeria as a part of the earthquake model for the Maghreb region. The earthquake model went through a detailed calibration process including: (1) the seismic intensity attenuation model by use of macroseismic observations and maps from past earthquakes in Algeria; (2) calculation of the country-specific vulnerability modifiers by use of past damage observations in the country. The use of Benouar, 1994 ground motion prediction relationship was proven as the most appropriate for our model. Calculation of the regional vulnerability modifiers for the country led to 10% to 40% larger vulnerability indexes for different building types compared to average European indexes. The country specific damage models also included aggregate damage models for residential, commercial and industrial properties considering the description of the buildings stock given by World Housing Encyclopaedia and the local rebuilding cost factors equal to 10% for damage grade 1, 20% for damage grade 2, 35% for damage grade 3, 75% for damage grade 4 and 100% for damage grade 5. The damage grades comply with the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-1998). The model was validated by use of "as-if" historical scenario simulations of three past earthquake events in Algeria M6.8 2003 Boumerdes, M7.3 1980 El-Asnam and M7.3 1856 Djidjelli earthquake. The calculated return periods of the losses for client market portfolio align with the

Earthquake Hazard Assessment: an Independent Review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir

2016-04-01

Seismic hazard assessment (SHA), from term-less (probabilistic PSHA or deterministic DSHA) to time-dependent (t-DASH) including short-term earthquake forecast/prediction (StEF), is not an easy task that implies a delicate application of statistics to data of limited size and different accuracy. Regretfully, in many cases of SHA, t-DASH, and StEF, the claims of a high potential and efficiency of the methodology are based on a flawed application of statistics and hardly suitable for communication to decision makers. The necessity and possibility of applying the modified tools of Earthquake Prediction Strategies, in particular, the Error Diagram, introduced by G.M. Molchan in early 1990ies for evaluation of SHA, and the Seismic Roulette null-hypothesis as a measure of the alerted space, is evident, and such a testing must be done in advance claiming hazardous areas and/or times. The set of errors, i.e. the rates of failure and of the alerted space-time volume, compared to those obtained in the same number of random guess trials permits evaluating the SHA method effectiveness and determining the optimal choice of the parameters in regard to specified cost-benefit functions. These and other information obtained in such a testing may supply us with a realistic estimate of confidence in SHA results and related recommendations on the level of risks for decision making in regard to engineering design, insurance, and emergency management. These basics of SHA evaluation are exemplified with a few cases of misleading "seismic hazard maps", "precursors", and "forecast/prediction methods".

Emergency medical rescue efforts after a major earthquake: lessons from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.

PubMed

Zhang, Lulu; Liu, Xu; Li, Youping; Liu, Yuan; Liu, Zhipeng; Lin, Juncong; Shen, Ji; Tang, Xuefeng; Zhang, Yi; Liang, Wannian

2012-03-03

Major earthquakes often result in incalculable environmental damage, loss of life, and threats to health. Tremendous progress has been made in response to many medical challenges resulting from earthquakes. However, emergency medical rescue is complicated, and great emphasis should be placed on its organisation to achieve the best results. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake was one of the most devastating disasters in the past 10 years and caused more than 370,000 casualties. The lessons learnt from the medical disaster relief effort and the subsequent knowledge gained about the regulation and capabilities of medical and military back-up teams should be widely disseminated. In this Review we summarise and analyse the emergency medical rescue efforts after the Wenchuan earthquake. Establishment of a national disaster medical response system, an active and effective commanding system, successful coordination between rescue forces and government agencies, effective treatment, a moderate, timely and correct public health response, and long-term psychological support are all crucial to reduce mortality and morbidity and promote overall effectiveness of rescue efforts after a major earthquake. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Societal and observational problems in earthquake risk assessments and their delivery to those most at risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilham, Roger

2013-01-01

Losses from earthquakes continue to rise despite increasingly sophisticated methods to estimate seismic risk throughout the world. This article discusses five specific reasons why this should be. Loss of life is most pronounced in the developing nations where three factors - poverty, corruption and ignorance - conspire to reduce the effective application of seismic resistant codes. A fourth reason is that in many developing nations the application of seismic resistant construction is inadvertently restricted to wealthy, or civil segments of the community, and is either unobtainable or irrelevant to the most vulnerable segment of the public — the owner/occupiers of substandard dwellings. A fifth flaw in current seismic hazard studies is that sophisticated methodologies to evaluate risk are inappropriate in regions where strain rates are low, and where historical data are short compared to the return time of damaging earthquakes. The scientific community has remained largely unaware of the importance of these impediments to the development and application of appropriate seismic resistant code, and is ill-equipped to address them.

Implications of the 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on tsunami forecast and assessment models for great subduction-zone earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Titov, Vasily V.; Arcas, Diego; Pollitz, Fred F.; Bilek, Susan L.

2007-01-01

Results from different tsunami forecasting and hazard assessment models are compared with observed tsunami wave heights from the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Forecast models are based on initial earthquake information and are used to estimate tsunami wave heights during propagation. An empirical forecast relationship based only on seismic moment provides a close estimate to the observed mean regional and maximum local tsunami runup heights for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami but underestimates mean regional tsunami heights at azimuths in line with the tsunami beaming pattern (e.g., Sri Lanka, Thailand). Standard forecast models developed from subfault discretization of earthquake rupture, in which deep- ocean sea level observations are used to constrain slip, are also tested. Forecast models of this type use tsunami time-series measurements at points in the deep ocean. As a proxy for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, a transect of deep-ocean tsunami amplitudes recorded by satellite altimetry is used to constrain slip along four subfaults of the M >9 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake. This proxy model performs well in comparison to observed tsunami wave heights, travel times, and inundation patterns at Banda Aceh. Hypothetical tsunami hazard assessments models based on end- member estimates for average slip and rupture length (Mw 9.0–9.3) are compared with tsunami observations. Using average slip (low end member) and rupture length (high end member) (Mw 9.14) consistent with many seismic, geodetic, and tsunami inversions adequately estimates tsunami runup in most regions, except the extreme runup in the western Aceh province. The high slip that occurred in the southern part of the rupture zone linked to runup in this location is a larger fluctuation than expected from standard stochastic slip models. In addition, excess moment release (∼9%) deduced from geodetic studies in comparison to seismic moment estimates may generate additional tsunami energy, if the

Seismic hazard assessment and pattern recognition of earthquake prone areas in the Po Plain (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorshkov, Alexander; Peresan, Antonella; Soloviev, Alexander; Panza, Giuliano F.

2014-05-01

A systematic and quantitative assessment, capable of providing first-order consistent information about the sites where large earthquakes may occur, is crucial for the knowledgeable seismic hazard evaluation. The methodology for the pattern recognition of areas prone to large earthquakes is based on the morphostructural zoning method (MSZ), which employs topographic data and present-day tectonic structures for the mapping of earthquake-controlling structures (i.e. the nodes formed around lineaments intersections) and does not require the knowledge about past seismicity. The nodes are assumed to be characterized by a uniform set of topographic, geologic, and geophysical parameters; on the basis of such parameters the pattern recognition algorithm defines a classification rule to discriminate seismogenic and non-seismogenic nodes. This methodology has been successfully applied since the early 1970s in a number of regions worldwide, including California, where it permitted the identification of areas that have been subsequently struck by strong events and that previously were not considered prone to strong earthquakes. Recent studies on the Iberian Peninsula and the Rhone Valley, have demonstrated the applicability of MSZ to flat basins, with a relatively flat topography. In this study, the analysis is applied to the Po Plain (Northern Italy), an area characterized by a flat topography, to allow for the systematic identification of the nodes prone to earthquakes with magnitude larger or equal to M=5.0. The MSZ method differs from the standard morphostructural analysis where the term "lineament" is used to define the complex of alignments detectable on topographic maps or on satellite images. According to that definition the lineament is locally defined and the existence of the lineament does not depend on the surrounding areas. In MSZ, the primary element is the block - a relatively homogeneous area - while the lineament is a secondary element of the morphostructure

A preliminary regional assessment of earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility for Vrancea Seismic Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Micu, Mihai; Balteanu, Dan; Ionescu, Constantin; Havenith, Hans; Radulian, Mircea; van Westen, Cees; Damen, Michiel; Jurchescu, Marta

2015-04-01

In seismically-active regions, earthquakes may trigger landslides enhancing the short-to-long term slope denudation and sediment delivery and conditioning the general landscape evolution. Co-seismic slope failures present in general a low frequency - high magnitude pattern which should be addressed accordingly by landslide hazard assessment, with respect to the generally more frequent precipitation-triggered landslides. The Vrancea Seismic Region, corresponding to the curvature sector of the Eastern Romanian Carpathians, represents the most active sub-crustal (focal depth > 50 km) earthquake province of Europe. It represents the main seismic energy source throughout Romania with significant transboundary effects recorded as far as Ukraine and Bulgaria. During the last 300 years, the region featured 14 earthquakes with M>7, among which seven events with magnitude above 7.5 and three between 7.7 and 7.9. Apart from the direct damages, the Vrancea earthquakes are also responsible for causing numerous other geohazards, such as ground fracturing, groundwater level disturbances and possible deep-seated landslide occurrences (rock slumps, rock-block slides, rock falls, rock avalanches). The older deep-seated landslides (assumed to have been) triggered by earthquakes usually affect the entire slope profile. They often formed landslide dams strongly influencing the river morphology and representing potential threats (through flash-floods) in case of lake outburst. Despite the large potential of this research issue, the correlation between the region's seismotectonic context and landslide predisposing factors has not yet been entirely understood. Presently, there is a lack of information provided by the geohazards databases of Vrancea that does not allow us to outline the seismic influence on the triggering of slope failures in this region. We only know that the morphology of numerous large, deep-seated and dormant landslides (which can possibly be reactivated in future

Using Socioeconomic Data to Calibrate Loss Estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holliday, J. R.; Rundle, J. B.

2013-12-01

One of the loftier goals in seismic hazard analysis is the creation of an end-to-end earthquake prediction system: a "rupture to rafters" work flow that takes a prediction of fault rupture, propagates it with a ground shaking model, and outputs a damage or loss profile at a given location. So far, the initial prediction of an earthquake rupture (either as a point source or a fault system) has proven to be the most difficult and least solved step in this chain. However, this may soon change. The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) has amassed a suite of earthquake source models for assorted testing regions worldwide. These models are capable of providing rate-based forecasts for earthquake (point) sources over a range of time horizons. Furthermore, these rate forecasts can be easily refined into probabilistic source forecasts. While it's still difficult to fully assess the "goodness" of each of these models, progress is being made: new evaluation procedures are being devised and earthquake statistics continue to accumulate. The scientific community appears to be heading towards a better understanding of rupture predictability. Ground shaking mechanics are better understood, and many different sophisticated models exists. While these models tend to be computationally expensive and often regionally specific, they do a good job at matching empirical data. It is perhaps time to start addressing the third step in the seismic hazard prediction system. We present a model for rapid economic loss estimation using ground motion (PGA or PGV) and socioeconomic measures as its input. We show that the model can be calibrated on a global scale and applied worldwide. We also suggest how the model can be improved and generalized to non-seismic natural disasters such as hurricane and severe wind storms.

Automatic Blocked Roads Assessment after Earthquake Using High Resolution Satellite Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rastiveis, H.; Hosseini-Zirdoo, E.; Eslamizade, F.

2015-12-01

In 2010, an earthquake in the city of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, happened quite by chance an accident and killed over 300000 people. According to historical data such an earthquake has not occurred in the area. Unpredictability of earthquakes has necessitated the need for comprehensive mitigation efforts to minimize deaths and injuries. Blocked roads, caused by debris of destroyed buildings, may increase the difficulty of rescue activities. In this case, a damage map, which specifies blocked and unblocked roads, can be definitely helpful for a rescue team. In this paper, a novel method for providing destruction map based on pre-event vector map and high resolution world view II satellite images after earthquake, is presented. For this purpose, firstly in pre-processing step, image quality improvement and co-coordination of image and map are performed. Then, after extraction of texture descriptor from the image after quake and SVM classification, different terrains are detected in the image. Finally, considering the classification results, specifically objects belong to "debris" class, damage analysis are performed to estimate the damage percentage. In this case, in addition to the area objects in the "debris" class their shape should also be counted. The aforementioned process are performed on all the roads in the road layer.In this research, pre-event digital vector map and post-event high resolution satellite image, acquired by Worldview-2, of the city of Port-au-Prince, Haiti's capital, were used to evaluate the proposed method. The algorithm was executed on 1200×800 m2 of the data set, including 60 roads, and all the roads were labelled correctly. The visual examination have authenticated the abilities of this method for damage assessment of urban roads network after an earthquake.

Rapid Assessment of Seismic Vulnerability in Palestinian Refugee Camps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Dabbeek, Jalal N.; El-Kelani, Radwan J.

Studies of historical and recorded earthquakes in Palestine demonstrate that damaging earthquakes are occurring frequently along the Dead Sea Transform: Earthquake of 11 July 1927 (ML 6.2), Earthquake of 11 February 2004 (ML 5.2). In order to reduce seismic vulnerability of buildings, losses in lives, properties and infrastructures, an attempt was made to estimate the percentage of damage degrees and losses at selected refugee camps: Al Ama`ri, Balata and Dhaishe. Assessing the vulnerability classes of building structures was carried out according to the European Macro-Seismic Scale 1998 (EMS-98) and the Fedral Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The rapid assessment results showed that very heavy structural and non structural damages will occur in the common buildings of the investigated Refugee Camps (many buildings will suffer from damages grades 4 and 5). Bad quality of buildings in terms of design and construction, lack of uniformity, absence of spaces between the building and the limited width of roads will definitely increase the seismic vulnerability under the influence of moderate-strong (M 6-7) earthquakes in the future.

Classification of Earthquake-triggered Landslide Events - Review of Classical and Particular Cases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, A.; Havenith, H. B.; Schlögel, R.

2016-12-01

Seismically induced landslides often contribute to a significant degree to the losses related to earthquakes. The identification of possible extends of landslide affected areas can help to target emergency measures when an earthquake occurs or improve the resilience of inhabited areas and critical infrastructure in zones of high seismic hazard. Moreover, landslide event sizes are an important proxy for the estimation of the intensity and magnitude of past earthquakes in paleoseismic studies, allowing us to improve seismic hazard assessment over longer terms. Not only earthquake intensity, but also factors such as the fault characteristics, topography, climatic conditions and the geological environment have a major impact on the intensity and spatial distribution of earthquake induced landslides. Inspired by classical reviews of earthquake induced landslides, e.g. by Keefer or Jibson, we present here a review of factors contributing to earthquake triggered slope failures based on an `event-by-event' classification approach. The objective of this analysis is to enable the short-term prediction of earthquake triggered landslide event sizes in terms of numbers and size of the affected area right after an earthquake event occurred. Five main factors, `Intensity', `Fault', `Topographic energy', `Climatic conditions' and `Surface geology' were used to establish a relationship to the number and spatial extend of landslides triggered by an earthquake. Based on well-documented recent earthquakes (e.g. Haiti 2010, Wenchuan 2008) and on older events for which reliable extensive information was available (e.g. Northridge 1994, Loma Prieta 1989, Guatemala 1976, Peru 1970) the combination and relative weight of the factors was calibrated. The calibrated factor combination was then applied to more than 20 earthquake events for which landslide distribution characteristics could be crosschecked. We present cases where our prediction model performs well and discuss particular cases

History of Modern Earthquake Hazard Mapping and Assessment in California Using a Deterministic or Scenario Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mualchin, Lalliana

2011-03-01

Modern earthquake ground motion hazard mapping in California began following the 1971 San Fernando earthquake in the Los Angeles metropolitan area of southern California. Earthquake hazard assessment followed a traditional approach, later called Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) in order to distinguish it from the newer Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). In DSHA, seismic hazard in the event of the Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) magnitude from each of the known seismogenic faults within and near the state are assessed. The likely occurrence of the MCE has been assumed qualitatively by using late Quaternary and younger faults that are presumed to be seismogenic, but not when or within what time intervals MCE may occur. MCE is the largest or upper-bound potential earthquake in moment magnitude, and it supersedes and automatically considers all other possible earthquakes on that fault. That moment magnitude is used for estimating ground motions by applying it to empirical attenuation relationships, and for calculating ground motions as in neo-DSHA (Z uccolo et al., 2008). The first deterministic California earthquake hazard map was published in 1974 by the California Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) which has been called the California Geological Survey (CGS) since 2002, using the best available fault information and ground motion attenuation relationships at that time. The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) later assumed responsibility for printing the refined and updated peak acceleration contour maps which were heavily utilized by geologists, seismologists, and engineers for many years. Some engineers involved in the siting process of large important projects, for example, dams and nuclear power plants, continued to challenge the map(s). The second edition map was completed in 1985 incorporating more faults, improving MCE's estimation method, and using new ground motion attenuation relationships from the latest published

GEM - The Global Earthquake Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smolka, A.

2009-04-01

Over 500,000 people died in the last decade due to earthquakes and tsunamis, mostly in the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth. In many seismic regions, no hazard and risk models exist, and even where models do exist, they are intelligible only by experts, or available only for commercial purposes. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) answers the need for an openly accessible risk management tool. GEM is an internationally sanctioned public private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which will establish an authoritative standard for calculating and communicating earthquake hazard and risk, and will be designed to serve as the critical instrument to support decisions and actions that reduce earthquake losses worldwide. GEM will integrate developments on the forefront of scientific and engineering knowledge of earthquakes, at global, regional and local scale. The work is organized in three modules: hazard, risk, and socio-economic impact. The hazard module calculates probabilities of earthquake occurrence and resulting shaking at any given location. The risk module calculates fatalities, injuries, and damage based on expected shaking, building vulnerability, and the distribution of population and of exposed values and facilities. The socio-economic impact module delivers tools for making educated decisions to mitigate and manage risk. GEM will be a versatile online tool, with open source code and a map-based graphical interface. The underlying data will be open wherever possible, and its modular input and output will be adapted to multiple user groups: scientists and engineers, risk managers and decision makers in the public and private sectors, and the public-at- large. GEM will be the first global model for seismic risk assessment at a national and regional scale, and aims to achieve broad scientific participation and independence. Its development will occur in a

Earthquake Preparedness: What Every Childcare Provider Should Know.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

California State Office of Emergency Services, Sacramento.

This brochure provides information to help child care providers reduce or avoid damage, injuries, or loss of life during earthquakes. It first discusses steps to implement before an earthquake strikes, including securing household contents, and practicing with children how to duck and cover. Next, the brochure describes what to do during an…

Mega-thrust and Intra-slab Earthquakes Beneath Tokyo Metropolitan Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, N.; Sato, H.; Koketsu, K.; Hagiwara, H.; Wu, F.; Okaya, D.; Iwasaki, T.; Kasahara, K.

2006-12-01

In central Japan the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducts beneath the Tokyo Metropolitan area, the Kanto region, where it causes mega-thrust earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (M8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M7.9) which had 105,000 fatalities. The vertical proximity of this down going lithospheric plate is of concern because the greater Tokyo urban region has a population of 42 million and is the center of approximately 40% of the nation's economic activities. A M7+ earthquake in this region at present has high potential to produce devastating loss of life and property with even greater global economic repercussions. The M7+ earthquake is evaluated to occur with a probability of 70% in 30 years by the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan. In 2002, a consortium of universities and government agencies in Japan started the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Urban Areas, a project to improve information needed for seismic hazards analyses of the largest urban centers. Assessment in Kanto of the seismic hazard produced by the Philippine Sea Plate (PSP) mega-thrust earthquakes requires identification of all significant faults and possible earthquake scenarios and rupture behavior, regional characterizations of PSP geometry and the overlying Honshu arc physical properties (e.g., seismic wave velocities, densities, attenuation), and local near-surface seism ic site effects. Our study addresses (1) improved regional characterization of the PSP geometry based on new deep seismic reflection profiles (Sato etal.,2005), reprocessed off-shore profiles (Kimura et al.,2005), and a dense seismic array in the Boso peninsular (Hagiwara et al., 2006) and (2) identification of asperities of the mega-thrust at the top of the PSP. We qualitatively examine the relationship between seismic reflections and asperities inferred by reflection physical properties. We also discuss the relation between deformation of PSP and intra-slab M7+ earthquakes: the

Housing type after the Great East Japan Earthquake and loss of motor function in elderly victims: a prospective observational study.

PubMed

Ito, Kumiko; Tomata, Yasutake; Kogure, Mana; Sugawara, Yumi; Watanabe, Takashi; Asaka, Tadayoshi; Tsuji, Ichiro

2016-11-03

Previous studies have reported that elderly victims of natural disasters might be prone to a subsequent decline in motor function. Victims of the Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) relocated to a wide range of different types of housing. As the evacuee lifestyle varies according to the type of housing available to them, their degree of motor function loss might also vary accordingly. However, the association between postdisaster housing type and loss of motor function has never been investigated. The present study was conducted to investigate the association between housing type after the GEJE and loss of motor function in elderly victims. We conducted a prospective observational study of 478 Japanese individuals aged ≥65 years living in Miyagi Prefecture, one of the areas most significantly affected by the GEJE. Information on housing type after the GEJE, motor function as assessed by the Kihon checklist and other lifestyle factors was collected by interview and questionnaire in 2012. Information on motor function was then collected 1 year later. The multiple logistic regression model was used to estimate the multivariate adjusted ORs of motor function loss. We classified 53 (11.1%) of the respondents as having loss of motor function. The multivariate adjusted OR (with 95% CI) for loss of motor function among participants who were living in privately rented temporary housing/rental housing was 2.62 (1.10 to 6.24) compared to those who had remained in the same housing as that before the GEJE, and this increase was statistically significant. The proportion of individuals with loss of motor function was higher among persons who had relocated to privately rented temporary housing/rental housing after the GEJE. This result may reflect the influence of a move to a living environment where few acquaintances are located (lack of social capital). Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go

The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989: Societal Response

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coordinated by Mileti, Dennis S.

1993-01-01

Professional Paper 1553 describes how people and organizations responded to the earthquake and how the earthquake impacted people and society. The investigations evaluate the tools available to the research community to measure the nature, extent, and causes of damage and losses. They describe human behavior during and immediately after the earthquake and how citizens participated in emergency response. They review the challenges confronted by police and fire departments and disruptions to transbay transportations systems. And they survey the challenges of post-earthquake recovery. Some significant findings were: * Loma Prieta provided the first test of ATC-20, the red, yellow, and green tagging of buildings. It successful application has led to widespread use in other disasters including the September 11, 2001, New York City terrorist incident. * Most people responded calmly and without panic to the earthquake and acted to get themselves to a safe location. * Actions by people to help alleviate emergency conditions were proportional to the level of need at the community level. * Some solutions caused problems of their own. The police perimeter around the Cypress Viaduct isolated businesses from their customers leading to a loss of business and the evacuation of employees from those businesses hindered the movement of supplies to the disaster scene. * Emergency transbay ferry service was established 6 days after the earthquake, but required constant revision of service contracts and schedules. * The Loma Prieta earthquake produced minimal disruption to the regional economy. The total economic disruption resulted in maximum losses to the Gross Regional Product of $725 million in 1 month and $2.9 billion in 2 months, but 80% of the loss was recovered during the first 6 months of 1990. Approximately 7,100 workers were laid off.

Origin of Human Losses due to the Emilia Romagna, Italy, M5.9 Earthquake of 20 May 2012 and their Estimate in Real Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wyss, M.

2012-12-01

Estimating human losses within less than an hour worldwide requires assumptions and simplifications. Earthquake for which losses are accurately recorded after the event provide clues concerning the influence of error sources. If final observations and real time estimates differ significantly, data and methods to calculate losses may be modified or calibrated. In the case of the earthquake in the Emilia Romagna region with M5.9 on May 20th, the real time epicenter estimates of the GFZ and the USGS differed from the ultimate location by the INGV by 6 and 9 km, respectively. Fatalities estimated within an hour of the earthquake by the loss estimating tool QLARM, based on these two epicenters, numbered 20 and 31, whereas 7 were reported in the end, and 12 would have been calculated if the ultimate epicenter released by INGV had been used. These four numbers being small, do not differ statistically. Thus, the epicenter errors in this case did not appreciably influence the results. The QUEST team of INGV has reported intensities with I ≥ 5 at 40 locations with accuracies of 0.5 units and QLARM estimated I > 4.5 at 224 locations. The differences between the observed and calculated values at the 23 common locations show that the calculation in the 17 instances with significant differences were too high on average by one unit. By assuming higher than average attenuation within standard bounds for worldwide loss estimates, the calculated intensities model the observed ones better: For 57% of the locations, the difference was not significant; for the others, the calculated intensities were still somewhat higher than the observed ones. Using a generic attenuation law with higher than average attenuation, but not tailored to the region, the number of estimated fatalities becomes 12 compared to 7 reported ones. Thus, attenuation in this case decreased the discrepancy between observed and reported death by approximately a factor of two. The source of the fatalities is

Earthquake and tsunami forecasts: Relation of slow slip events to subsequent earthquake rupture

PubMed Central

Dixon, Timothy H.; Jiang, Yan; Malservisi, Rocco; McCaffrey, Robert; Voss, Nicholas; Protti, Marino; Gonzalez, Victor

2014-01-01

The 5 September 2012 Mw 7.6 earthquake on the Costa Rica subduction plate boundary followed a 62-y interseismic period. High-precision GPS recorded numerous slow slip events (SSEs) in the decade leading up to the earthquake, both up-dip and down-dip of seismic rupture. Deeper SSEs were larger than shallower ones and, if characteristic of the interseismic period, release most locking down-dip of the earthquake, limiting down-dip rupture and earthquake magnitude. Shallower SSEs were smaller, accounting for some but not all interseismic locking. One SSE occurred several months before the earthquake, but changes in Mohr–Coulomb failure stress were probably too small to trigger the earthquake. Because many SSEs have occurred without subsequent rupture, their individual predictive value is limited, but taken together they released a significant amount of accumulated interseismic strain before the earthquake, effectively defining the area of subsequent seismic rupture (rupture did not occur where slow slip was common). Because earthquake magnitude depends on rupture area, this has important implications for earthquake hazard assessment. Specifically, if this behavior is representative of future earthquake cycles and other subduction zones, it implies that monitoring SSEs, including shallow up-dip events that lie offshore, could lead to accurate forecasts of earthquake magnitude and tsunami potential. PMID:25404327

Earthquake and tsunami forecasts: relation of slow slip events to subsequent earthquake rupture.

PubMed

Dixon, Timothy H; Jiang, Yan; Malservisi, Rocco; McCaffrey, Robert; Voss, Nicholas; Protti, Marino; Gonzalez, Victor

2014-12-02

The 5 September 2012 M(w) 7.6 earthquake on the Costa Rica subduction plate boundary followed a 62-y interseismic period. High-precision GPS recorded numerous slow slip events (SSEs) in the decade leading up to the earthquake, both up-dip and down-dip of seismic rupture. Deeper SSEs were larger than shallower ones and, if characteristic of the interseismic period, release most locking down-dip of the earthquake, limiting down-dip rupture and earthquake magnitude. Shallower SSEs were smaller, accounting for some but not all interseismic locking. One SSE occurred several months before the earthquake, but changes in Mohr-Coulomb failure stress were probably too small to trigger the earthquake. Because many SSEs have occurred without subsequent rupture, their individual predictive value is limited, but taken together they released a significant amount of accumulated interseismic strain before the earthquake, effectively defining the area of subsequent seismic rupture (rupture did not occur where slow slip was common). Because earthquake magnitude depends on rupture area, this has important implications for earthquake hazard assessment. Specifically, if this behavior is representative of future earthquake cycles and other subduction zones, it implies that monitoring SSEs, including shallow up-dip events that lie offshore, could lead to accurate forecasts of earthquake magnitude and tsunami potential.

A stochastic automata network for earthquake simulation and hazard estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belubekian, Maya Ernest

1998-11-01

This research develops a model for simulation of earthquakes on seismic faults with available earthquake catalog data. The model allows estimation of the seismic hazard at a site of interest and assessment of the potential damage and loss in a region. There are two approaches for studying the earthquakes: mechanistic and stochastic. In the mechanistic approach, seismic processes, such as changes in stress or slip on faults, are studied in detail. In the stochastic approach, earthquake occurrences are simulated as realizations of a certain stochastic process. In this dissertation, a stochastic earthquake occurrence model is developed that uses the results from dislocation theory for the estimation of slip released in earthquakes. The slip accumulation and release laws and the event scheduling mechanism adopted in the model result in a memoryless Poisson process for the small and moderate events and in a time- and space-dependent process for large events. The minimum and maximum of the hazard are estimated by the model when the initial conditions along the faults correspond to a situation right after a largest event and after a long seismic gap, respectively. These estimates are compared with the ones obtained from a Poisson model. The Poisson model overestimates the hazard after the maximum event and underestimates it in the period of a long seismic quiescence. The earthquake occurrence model is formulated as a stochastic automata network. Each fault is divided into cells, or automata, that interact by means of information exchange. The model uses a statistical method called bootstrap for the evaluation of the confidence bounds on its results. The parameters of the model are adjusted to the target magnitude patterns obtained from the catalog. A case study is presented for the city of Palo Alto, where the hazard is controlled by the San Andreas, Hayward and Calaveras faults. The results of the model are used to evaluate the damage and loss distribution in Palo Alto

Continuing megathrust earthquake potential in Chile after the 2014 Iquique earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayes, Gavin P.; Herman, Matthew W.; Barnhart, William D.; Furlong, Kevin P.; Riquelme, Sebástian; Benz, Harley M.; Bergman, Eric; Barrientos, Sergio; Earle, Paul S.; Samsonov, Sergey

2014-01-01

The seismic gap theory identifies regions of elevated hazard based on a lack of recent seismicity in comparison with other portions of a fault. It has successfully explained past earthquakes (see, for example, ref. 2) and is useful for qualitatively describing where large earthquakes might occur. A large earthquake had been expected in the subduction zone adjacent to northern Chile which had not ruptured in a megathrust earthquake since a M ~8.8 event in 1877. On 1 April 2014 a M 8.2 earthquake occurred within this seismic gap. Here we present an assessment of the seismotectonics of the March–April 2014 Iquique sequence, including analyses of earthquake relocations, moment tensors, finite fault models, moment deficit calculations and cumulative Coulomb stress transfer. This ensemble of information allows us to place the sequence within the context of regional seismicity and to identify areas of remaining and/or elevated hazard. Our results constrain the size and spatial extent of rupture, and indicate that this was not the earthquake that had been anticipated. Significant sections of the northern Chile subduction zone have not ruptured in almost 150 years, so it is likely that future megathrust earthquakes will occur to the south and potentially to the north of the 2014 Iquique sequence.

Continuing megathrust earthquake potential in Chile after the 2014 Iquique earthquake.

PubMed

Hayes, Gavin P; Herman, Matthew W; Barnhart, William D; Furlong, Kevin P; Riquelme, Sebástian; Benz, Harley M; Bergman, Eric; Barrientos, Sergio; Earle, Paul S; Samsonov, Sergey

2014-08-21

The seismic gap theory identifies regions of elevated hazard based on a lack of recent seismicity in comparison with other portions of a fault. It has successfully explained past earthquakes (see, for example, ref. 2) and is useful for qualitatively describing where large earthquakes might occur. A large earthquake had been expected in the subduction zone adjacent to northern Chile, which had not ruptured in a megathrust earthquake since a M ∼8.8 event in 1877. On 1 April 2014 a M 8.2 earthquake occurred within this seismic gap. Here we present an assessment of the seismotectonics of the March-April 2014 Iquique sequence, including analyses of earthquake relocations, moment tensors, finite fault models, moment deficit calculations and cumulative Coulomb stress transfer. This ensemble of information allows us to place the sequence within the context of regional seismicity and to identify areas of remaining and/or elevated hazard. Our results constrain the size and spatial extent of rupture, and indicate that this was not the earthquake that had been anticipated. Significant sections of the northern Chile subduction zone have not ruptured in almost 150 years, so it is likely that future megathrust earthquakes will occur to the south and potentially to the north of the 2014 Iquique sequence.

Continuing Megathrust Earthquake Potential in northern Chile after the 2014 Iquique Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, G. P.; Herman, M. W.; Barnhart, W. D.; Furlong, K. P.; Riquelme, S.; Benz, H.; Bergman, E.; Barrientos, S. E.; Earle, P. S.; Samsonov, S. V.

2014-12-01

The seismic gap theory, which identifies regions of elevated hazard based on a lack of recent seismicity in comparison to other portions of a fault, has successfully explained past earthquakes and is useful for qualitatively describing where future large earthquakes might occur. A large earthquake had been expected in the subduction zone adjacent to northern Chile, which until recently had not ruptured in a megathrust earthquake since a M~8.8 event in 1877. On April 1 2014, a M 8.2 earthquake occurred within this northern Chile seismic gap, offshore of the city of Iquique; the size and spatial extent of the rupture indicate it was not the earthquake that had been anticipated. Here, we present a rapid assessment of the seismotectonics of the March-April 2014 seismic sequence offshore northern Chile, including analyses of earthquake (fore- and aftershock) relocations, moment tensors, finite fault models, moment deficit calculations, and cumulative Coulomb stress transfer calculations over the duration of the sequence. This ensemble of information allows us to place the current sequence within the context of historic seismicity in the region, and to assess areas of remaining and/or elevated hazard. Our results indicate that while accumulated strain has been released for a portion of the northern Chile seismic gap, significant sections have not ruptured in almost 150 years. These observations suggest that large-to-great sized megathrust earthquakes will occur north and south of the 2014 Iquique sequence sooner than might be expected had the 2014 events ruptured the entire seismic gap.

The Mw 7.7 Bhuj earthquake: Global lessons for earthquake hazard in intra-plate regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schweig, E.; Gomberg, J.; Petersen, M.; Ellis, M.; Bodin, P.; Mayrose, L.; Rastogi, B.K.

2003-01-01

The Mw 7.7 Bhuj earthquake occurred in the Kachchh District of the State of Gujarat, India on 26 January 2001, and was one of the most damaging intraplate earthquakes ever recorded. This earthquake is in many ways similar to the three great New Madrid earthquakes that occurred in the central United States in 1811-1812, An Indo-US team is studying the similarities and differences of these sequences in order to learn lessons for earthquake hazard in intraplate regions. Herein we present some preliminary conclusions from that study. Both the Kutch and New Madrid regions have rift type geotectonic setting. In both regions the strain rates are of the order of 10-9/yr and attenuation of seismic waves as inferred from observations of intensity and liquefaction are low. These strain rates predict recurrence intervals for Bhuj or New Madrid sized earthquakes of several thousand years or more. In contrast, intervals estimated from paleoseismic studies and from other independent data are significantly shorter, probably hundreds of years. All these observations together may suggest that earthquakes relax high ambient stresses that are locally concentrated by rheologic heterogeneities, rather than loading by plate-tectonic forces. The latter model generally underlies basic assumptions made in earthquake hazard assessment, that the long-term average rate of energy released by earthquakes is determined by the tectonic loading rate, which thus implies an inherent average periodicity of earthquake occurrence. Interpreting the observations in terms of the former model therefore may require re-examining the basic assumptions of hazard assessment.

Twitter earthquake detection: Earthquake monitoring in a social world

USGS Publications Warehouse

Earle, Paul S.; Bowden, Daniel C.; Guy, Michelle R.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets) with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word "earthquake" clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.

A Model For Rapid Estimation of Economic Loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holliday, J. R.; Rundle, J. B.

2012-12-01

One of the loftier goals in seismic hazard analysis is the creation of an end-to-end earthquake prediction system: a "rupture to rafters" work flow that takes a prediction of fault rupture, propagates it with a ground shaking model, and outputs a damage or loss profile at a given location. So far, the initial prediction of an earthquake rupture (either as a point source or a fault system) has proven to be the most difficult and least solved step in this chain. However, this may soon change. The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) has amassed a suite of earthquake source models for assorted testing regions worldwide. These models are capable of providing rate-based forecasts for earthquake (point) sources over a range of time horizons. Furthermore, these rate forecasts can be easily refined into probabilistic source forecasts. While it's still difficult to fully assess the "goodness" of each of these models, progress is being made: new evaluation procedures are being devised and earthquake statistics continue to accumulate. The scientific community appears to be heading towards a better understanding of rupture predictability. Ground shaking mechanics are better understood, and many different sophisticated models exists. While these models tend to be computationally expensive and often regionally specific, they do a good job at matching empirical data. It is perhaps time to start addressing the third step in the seismic hazard prediction system. We present a model for rapid economic loss estimation using ground motion (PGA or PGV) and socioeconomic measures as its input. We show that the model can be calibrated on a global scale and applied worldwide. We also suggest how the model can be improved and generalized to non-seismic natural disasters such as hurricane and severe wind storms.

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment based on the long-term evaluation of subduction-zone earthquakes along the Sagami Trough, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, K.; Fujiwara, H.; Nakamura, H.; Osada, M.; Ohsumi, T.; Morikawa, N.; Kawai, S.; Maeda, T.; Matsuyama, H.; Toyama, N.; Kito, T.; Murata, Y.; Saito, R.; Takayama, J.; Akiyama, S.; Korenaga, M.; Abe, Y.; Hashimoto, N.; Hakamata, T.

2017-12-01

For the forthcoming large earthquakes along the Sagami Trough where the Philippine Sea Plate is subducting beneath the northeast Japan arc, the Earthquake Research Committee(ERC) /Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, Japanese government (2014a) assessed that M7 and M8 class earthquakes will occur there and defined the possible extent of the earthquake source areas. They assessed 70% and 0% 5% of the occurrence probability within the next 30 years (from Jan. 1, 2014), respectively, for the M7 and M8 class earthquakes. First, we set possible 10 earthquake source areas(ESAs) and 920 ESAs, respectively, for M8 and M7 class earthquakes. Next, we constructed 125 characterized earthquake fault models (CEFMs) and 938 CEFMs, respectively, for M8 and M7 class earthquakes, based on "tsunami receipt" of ERC (2017) (Kitoh et al., 2016, JpGU). All the CEFMs are allowed to have a large slip area for expression of fault slip heterogeneity. For all the CEFMs, we calculate tsunamis by solving a nonlinear long wave equation, using FDM, including runup calculation, over a nesting grid system with a minimum grid size of 50 meters. Finally, we re-distributed the occurrence probability to all CEFMs (Abe et al., 2014, JpGU) and gathered excess probabilities for variable tsunami heights, calculated from all the CEFMs, at every observation point along Pacific coast to get PTHA. We incorporated aleatory uncertainties inherent in tsunami calculation and earthquake fault slip heterogeneity. We considered two kinds of probabilistic hazard models; one is "Present-time hazard model" under an assumption that the earthquake occurrence basically follows a renewal process based on BPT distribution if the latest faulting time was known. The other is "Long-time averaged hazard model" under an assumption that earthquake occurrence follows a stationary Poisson process. We fixed our viewpoint, for example, on the probability that the tsunami height will exceed 3 meters at coastal points in next

Assessment of earthquake effects - contribution from online communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Amico, Sebastiano; Agius, Matthew; Galea, Pauline

2014-05-01

The rapid increase of social media and online newspapers in the last years have given the opportunity to make a national investigation on macroseismic effects on the Maltese Islands based on felt earthquake reports. A magnitude 4.1 earthquake struck close to Malta on Sunday 24th April 2011 at 13:02 GMT. The earthquake was preceded and followed by a series of smaller magnitude quakes throughout the day, most of which were felt by the locals on the island. The continuous news media coverage during the day and the extensive sharing of the news item on social media resulted in a strong public response to fill in the 'Did you feel it?' online form on the website of the Seismic Monitoring and Research Unit (SMRU) at the University of Malta (http://seismic.research.um.edu.mt/). The results yield interesting information about the demographics of the island, and the different felt experiences possibly relating to geological settings and diverse structural and age-classified buildings. Based on this case study, the SMRU is in the process of developing a mobile phone application dedicated to share earthquake information to the local community. The application will automatically prompt users to fill in a simplified 'Did you feel it?' report to potentially felt earthquakes. Automatic location using Global Positioning Systems can be incorporated to provide a 'real time' intensity map that can be used by the Civil Protection Department.

Measuring the effectiveness of earthquake forecasting in insurance strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mignan, A.; Muir-Wood, R.

2009-04-01

Given the difficulty of judging whether the skill of a particular methodology of earthquake forecasts is offset by the inevitable false alarms and missed predictions, it is important to find a means to weigh the successes and failures according to a common currency. Rather than judge subjectively the relative costs and benefits of predictions, we develop a simple method to determine if the use of earthquake forecasts can increase the profitability of active financial risk management strategies employed in standard insurance procedures. Three types of risk management transactions are employed: (1) insurance underwriting, (2) reinsurance purchasing and (3) investment in CAT bonds. For each case premiums are collected based on modelled technical risk costs and losses are modelled for the portfolio in force at the time of the earthquake. A set of predetermined actions follow from the announcement of any change in earthquake hazard, so that, for each earthquake forecaster, the financial performance of an active risk management strategy can be compared with the equivalent passive strategy in which no notice is taken of earthquake forecasts. Overall performance can be tracked through time to determine which strategy gives the best long term financial performance. This will be determined by whether the skill in forecasting the location and timing of a significant earthquake (where loss is avoided) is outweighed by false predictions (when no premium is collected). This methodology is to be tested in California, where catastrophe modeling is reasonably mature and where a number of researchers issue earthquake forecasts.

Glacial Earthquakes: Monitoring Greenland's Glaciers Using Broadband Seismic Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olsen, K.; Nettles, M.

2017-12-01

The Greenland ice sheet currently loses 400 Gt of ice per year, and up to half of that mass loss comes from icebergs calving from marine-terminating glaciers (Enderlin et al., 2014). Some of the largest icebergs produced by Greenland's glaciers generate magnitude 5 seismic signals when they calve. These glacial earthquakes are recorded by seismic stations around the world. Full-waveform inversion and analysis of glacial earthquakes provides a low-cost tool to identify where and when gigaton-sized icebergs calve, and to track this important mass-loss mechanism in near-real-time. Fifteen glaciers in Greenland are known to have produced glacial earthquakes, and the annual number of these events has increased by a factor of six over the past two decades (e.g., Ekström et al., 2006; Olsen and Nettles, 2017). Since 2000, the number of glacial earthquakes on Greenland's west coast has increased dramatically. Our analysis of three recent years of data shows that more glacial earthquakes occurred on Greenland's west coast from 2011 - 2013 than ever before. In some cases, glacial-earthquake force orientations allow us to identify which section of a glacier terminus produced the iceberg associated with a particular event. We are able to track the timing of major changes in calving-front orientation at several glaciers around Greenland, as well as progressive failure along a single calving front over the course of hours to days. Additionally, the presence of glacial earthquakes resolves a glacier's grounded state, as glacial earthquakes occur only when a glacier terminates close to its grounding line.

Napa Earthquake impact on water systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.

2014-12-01

South Napa earthquake occurred in Napa, California on August 24 at 3am, local time, and the magnitude is 6.0. The earthquake was the largest in SF Bay Area since the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. Economic loss topped $ 1 billion. Wine makers cleaning up and estimated the damage on tourism. Around 15,000 cases of lovely cabernet were pouring into the garden at the Hess Collection. Earthquake potentially raise water pollution risks, could cause water crisis. CA suffered water shortage recent years, and it could be helpful on how to prevent underground/surface water pollution from earthquake. This research gives a clear view on drinking water system in CA, pollution on river systems, as well as estimation on earthquake impact on water supply. The Sacramento-San Joaquin River delta (close to Napa), is the center of the state's water distribution system, delivering fresh water to more than 25 million residents and 3 million acres of farmland. Delta water conveyed through a network of levees is crucial to Southern California. The drought has significantly curtailed water export, and salt water intrusion reduced fresh water outflows. Strong shaking from a nearby earthquake can cause saturated, loose, sandy soils liquefaction, and could potentially damage major delta levee systems near Napa. Napa earthquake is a wake-up call for Southern California. It could potentially damage freshwater supply system.

Earthquake fragility assessment of curved and skewed bridges in Mountain West region : research brief.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-09-01

the ISSUE : the RESEARCH : Earthquake Fragility : Assessment of Curved : and Skewed Bridges in : Mountain West Region : Reinforced concrete bridges with both skew and curvature are common in areas with complex terrains. : These bridges are irregular ...

Practical Applications for Earthquake Scenarios Using ShakeMap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wald, D. J.; Worden, B.; Quitoriano, V.; Goltz, J.

2001-12-01

In planning and coordinating emergency response, utilities, local government, and other organizations are best served by conducting training exercises based on realistic earthquake situations-ones that they are most likely to face. Scenario earthquakes can fill this role; they can be generated for any geologically plausible earthquake or for actual historic earthquakes. ShakeMap Web pages now display selected earthquake scenarios (www.trinet.org/shake/archive/scenario/html) and more events will be added as they are requested and produced. We will discuss the methodology and provide practical examples where these scenarios are used directly for risk reduction. Given a selected event, we have developed tools to make it relatively easy to generate a ShakeMap earthquake scenario using the following steps: 1) Assume a particular fault or fault segment will (or did) rupture over a certain length, 2) Determine the magnitude of the earthquake based on assumed rupture dimensions, 3) Estimate the ground shaking at all locations in the chosen area around the fault, and 4) Represent these motions visually by producing ShakeMaps and generating ground motion input for loss estimation modeling (e.g., FEMA's HAZUS). At present, ground motions are estimated using empirical attenuation relationships to estimate peak ground motions on rock conditions. We then correct the amplitude at that location based on the local site soil (NEHRP) conditions as we do in the general ShakeMap interpolation scheme. Finiteness is included explicitly, but directivity enters only through the empirical relations. Although current ShakeMap earthquake scenarios are empirically based, substantial improvements in numerical ground motion modeling have been made in recent years. However, loss estimation tools, HAZUS for example, typically require relatively high frequency (3 Hz) input for predicting losses, above the range of frequencies successfully modeled to date. Achieving full-synthetic ground motion

Earthquake hazard assessment in the Zagros Orogenic Belt of Iran using a fuzzy rule-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farahi Ghasre Aboonasr, Sedigheh; Zamani, Ahmad; Razavipour, Fatemeh; Boostani, Reza

2017-08-01

Producing accurate seismic hazard map and predicting hazardous areas is necessary for risk mitigation strategies. In this paper, a fuzzy logic inference system is utilized to estimate the earthquake potential and seismic zoning of Zagros Orogenic Belt. In addition to the interpretability, fuzzy predictors can capture both nonlinearity and chaotic behavior of data, where the number of data is limited. In this paper, earthquake pattern in the Zagros has been assessed for the intervals of 10 and 50 years using fuzzy rule-based model. The Molchan statistical procedure has been used to show that our forecasting model is reliable. The earthquake hazard maps for this area reveal some remarkable features that cannot be observed on the conventional maps. Regarding our achievements, some areas in the southern (Bandar Abbas), southwestern (Bandar Kangan) and western (Kermanshah) parts of Iran display high earthquake severity even though they are geographically far apart.

Observing the Greatest Earthquakes: AGU Chapman Conference on Giant Earthquakes and Their Tsunamis: Viña del Mar and Valparaíso, Chile, 16–20 May 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Atwater, Brian F.; Barrientos, Sergio; Cifuentes, Inés; Cisternas, Marco; Wang, Kelin

2010-01-01

An AGU Chapman Conference commemorated the fiftieth anniversary of the 1960 M 9.5 Chile earthquake. Participants reexamined this earthquake, the largest ever recorded instrumentally, and compared it with Chile's February 2010 M 8.8 earthquake. They also addressed the giant earthquake potential of subduction zones worldwide and strategies for reducing losses due to tsunamis. The conference drew 96 participants from 18 countries, and it reached out to public audiences in Chile.

Real-time Seismicity Evaluation as a Tool for the Earthquake and Tsunami Short-Term Hazard Assessment (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadopoulos, G. A.

2010-12-01

Seismic activity is a 3-D process varying in the space-time-magnitude domains. When in a target area the short-term activity deviates significantly from the usual (background) seismicity, then the modes of activity may include swarms, temporary quiescence, foreshock-mainshock-aftershock sequences, doublets and multiplets. This implies that making decision for civil protection purposes requires short-term seismic hazard assessment and evaluation. When a sizable earthquake takes place the critical question is about the nature of the event: mainshock or a foreshock which foreshadows the occurrence of a biger one? Also, the seismicity increase or decrease in a target area may signify either precursory changes or just transient seismicity variations (e.g. swarms) which do not conclude with a strong earthquake. Therefore, the real-time seismicity evaluation is the backbone of the short-term hazard assessment. The algorithm FORMA (Foreshock-Mainshock-Aftershock) is presented which detects and updates automatically and in near real-time significant variations of the seismicity according to the earthquake data flow from the monitoring center. The detection of seismicity variations is based on an expert system which for a given target area indicates the mode of seismicity from the variation of two parameters: the seismicity rate, r, and the b-value of the magnitude-frequency relation. Alert levels are produced according to the significance levels of the changes of r and b. The good performance of FORMA was verified retrospectively in several earthquake cases, e.g. for the L’ Aquila, Italy, 2009 earthquake sequence (Mmax 6.3) (Papadopoulos et al., 2010). Real-time testing was executed during January 2010 with the strong earthquake activity (Mmax 5.6) in the Corinth Rift, Central Greece. Evaluation outputs were publicly documented on a nearly daily basis with successful results. Evaluation of coastal and submarine earthquake activity is also of crucial importance for the

Mass wasting triggered by the 5 March 1987 Ecuador earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schuster, R.L.; Nieto, A.S.; O'Rourke, T. D.; Crespo, E.; Plaza-Nieto, G.

1996-01-01

On 5 March 1987, two earthquakes (Ms=6.1 and Ms=6.9) occurred about 25 km north of Reventador Volcano, along the eastern slopes of the Andes Mountains in northeastern Ecuador. Although the shaking damaged structures in towns and villages near the epicentral area, the economic and social losses directly due to earthquake shaking were small compared to the effects of catastrophic earthquake-triggered mass wasting and flooding. About 600 mm of rain fell in the region in the month preceding the earthquakes; thus, the surficial soils had high moisture contents. Slope failures commonly started as thin slides, which rapidly turned into fluid debris avalanches and debris flows. The surficial soils and thick vegetation covering them flowed down the slopes into minor tributaries and then were carried into major rivers. Rock and earth slides, debris avalanches, debris and mud flows, and resulting floods destroyed about 40 km of the Trans-Ecuadorian oil pipeline and the only highway from Quito to Ecuador's northeastern rain forests and oil fields. Estimates of total volume of earthquake-induced mass wastage ranged from 75-110 million m3. Economic losses were about US$ 1 billion. Nearly all of the approximately 1000 deaths from the earthquakes were a consequence of mass wasting and/ or flooding.

Earthquake Catalogue of the Caucasus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godoladze, T.; Gok, R.; Tvaradze, N.; Tumanova, N.; Gunia, I.; Onur, T.

2016-12-01

The Caucasus has a documented historical catalog stretching back to the beginning of the Christian era. Most of the largest historical earthquakes prior to the 19th century are assumed to have occurred on active faults of the Greater Caucasus. Important earthquakes include the Samtskhe earthquake of 1283 (Ms˜7.0, Io=9); Lechkhumi-Svaneti earthquake of 1350 (Ms˜7.0, Io=9); and the Alaverdi earthquake of 1742 (Ms˜6.8, Io=9). Two significant historical earthquakes that may have occurred within the Javakheti plateau in the Lesser Caucasus are the Tmogvi earthquake of 1088 (Ms˜6.5, Io=9) and the Akhalkalaki earthquake of 1899 (Ms˜6.3, Io =8-9). Large earthquakes that occurred in the Caucasus within the period of instrumental observation are: Gori 1920; Tabatskuri 1940; Chkhalta 1963; Racha earthquake of 1991 (Ms=7.0), is the largest event ever recorded in the region; Barisakho earthquake of 1992 (M=6.5); Spitak earthquake of 1988 (Ms=6.9, 100 km south of Tbilisi), which killed over 50,000 people in Armenia. Recently, permanent broadband stations have been deployed across the region as part of the various national networks (Georgia (˜25 stations), Azerbaijan (˜35 stations), Armenia (˜14 stations)). The data from the last 10 years of observation provides an opportunity to perform modern, fundamental scientific investigations. In order to improve seismic data quality a catalog of all instrumentally recorded earthquakes has been compiled by the IES (Institute of Earth Sciences/NSMC, Ilia State University) in the framework of regional joint project (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, USA) "Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) in the Caucasus. The catalogue consists of more then 80,000 events. First arrivals of each earthquake of Mw>=4.0 have been carefully examined. To reduce calculation errors, we corrected arrivals from the seismic records. We improved locations of the events and recalculate Moment magnitudes in order to obtain unified magnitude

PAGER-CAT: A composite earthquake catalog for calibrating global fatality models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, T.I.; Marano, K.D.; Earle, P.S.; Wald, D.J.

2009-01-01

We have described the compilation and contents of PAGER-CAT, an earthquake catalog developed principally for calibrating earthquake fatality models. It brings together information from a range of sources in a comprehensive, easy to use digital format. Earthquake source information (e.g., origin time, hypocenter, and magnitude) contained in PAGER-CAT has been used to develop an Atlas of Shake Maps of historical earthquakes (Allen et al. 2008) that can subsequently be used to estimate the population exposed to various levels of ground shaking (Wald et al. 2008). These measures will ultimately yield improved earthquake loss models employing the uniform hazard mapping methods of ShakeMap. Currently PAGER-CAT does not consistently contain indicators of landslide and liquefaction occurrence prior to 1973. In future PAGER-CAT releases we plan to better document the incidence of these secondary hazards. This information is contained in some existing global catalogs but is far from complete and often difficult to parse. Landslide and liquefaction hazards can be important factors contributing to earthquake losses (e.g., Marano et al. unpublished). Consequently, the absence of secondary hazard indicators in PAGER-CAT, particularly for events prior to 1973, could be misleading to sorne users concerned with ground-shaking-related losses. We have applied our best judgment in the selection of PAGER-CAT's preferred source parameters and earthquake effects. We acknowledge the creation of a composite catalog always requires subjective decisions, but we believe PAGER-CAT represents a significant step forward in bringing together the best available estimates of earthquake source parameters and reports of earthquake effects. All information considered in PAGER-CAT is stored as provided in its native catalog so that other users can modify PAGER preferred parameters based on their specific needs or opinions. As with all catalogs, the values of some parameters listed in PAGER-CAT are

U.S. Tsunami Information technology (TIM) Modernization: Performance Assessment of Tsunamigenic Earthquake Discrimination System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagerty, M. T.; Lomax, A.; Hellman, S. B.; Whitmore, P.; Weinstein, S.; Hirshorn, B. F.; Knight, W. R.

2015-12-01

Tsunami warning centers must rapidly decide whether an earthquake is likely to generate a destructive tsunami in order to issue a tsunami warning quickly after a large event. For very large events (Mw > 8 or so), magnitude and location alone are sufficient to warrant an alert. However, for events of smaller magnitude (e.g., Mw ~ 7.5), particularly for so-called "tsunami earthquakes", magnitude alone is insufficient to issue an alert and other measurements must be rapidly made and used to assess tsunamigenic potential. The Tsunami Information technology Modernization (TIM) is a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) project to update and standardize the earthquake and tsunami monitoring systems currently employed at the U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers in Ewa Beach, Hawaii (PTWC) and Palmer, Alaska (NTWC). We (ISTI) are responsible for implementing the seismic monitoring components in this new system, including real-time seismic data collection and seismic processing. The seismic data processor includes a variety of methods aimed at real-time discrimination of tsunamigenic events, including: Mwp, Me, slowness (Theta), W-phase, mantle magnitude (Mm), array processing and finite-fault inversion. In addition, it contains the ability to designate earthquake scenarios and play the resulting synthetic seismograms through the processing system. Thus, it is also a convenient tool that integrates research and monitoring and may be used to calibrate and tune the real-time monitoring system. Here we show results of the automated processing system for a large dataset of subduction zone earthquakes containing recent tsunami earthquakes and we examine the accuracy of the various discrimation methods and discuss issues related to their successful real-time application.

Performance assessment of conventional and base-isolated nuclear power plants for earthquake and blast loadings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Yin-Nan

Nuclear power plants (NPPs) and spent nuclear fuel (SNF) are required by code and regulations to be designed for a family of extreme events, including very rare earthquake shaking, loss of coolant accidents, and tornado-borne missile impacts. Blast loading due to malevolent attack became a design consideration for NPPs and SNF after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. The studies presented in this dissertation assess the performance of sample conventional and base isolated NPP reactor buildings subjected to seismic effects and blast loadings. The response of the sample reactor building to tornado-borne missile impacts and internal events (e.g., loss of coolant accidents) will not change if the building is base isolated and so these hazards were not considered. The sample NPP reactor building studied in this dissertation is composed of containment and internal structures with a total weight of approximately 75,000 tons. Four configurations of the reactor building are studied, including one conventional fixed-base reactor building and three base-isolated reactor buildings using Friction Pendulum(TM), lead rubber and low damping rubber bearings. The seismic assessment of the sample reactor building is performed using a new procedure proposed in this dissertation that builds on the methodology presented in the draft ATC-58 Guidelines and the widely used Zion method, which uses fragility curves defined in terms of ground-motion parameters for NPP seismic probabilistic risk assessment. The new procedure improves the Zion method by using fragility curves that are defined in terms of structural response parameters since damage and failure of NPP components are more closely tied to structural response parameters than to ground motion parameters. Alternate ground motion scaling methods are studied to help establish an optimal procedure for scaling ground motions for the purpose of seismic performance assessment. The proposed performance assessment procedure is used

Assessment of Vegetation Destruction Due to Wenchuan Earthquake and Its Recovery Process Using MODIS Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Z.; Xiao, X.

2015-12-01

With a high temporal resolution and a large covering area, MODIS data are particularly useful in assessing vegetation destruction and recovery of a wide range of areas. In this study, MOD13Q1 data of the growing season (Mar. to Nov.) are used to calculate the Maximum NDVI (NDVImax) of each year. This study calculates each pixel's mean and standard deviation of the NDVImaxs in the 8 years before the earthquake. If the pixel's NDVImax of 2008 is two standard deviation smaller than the mean NDVImax, this pixel is detected as a vegetation destructed pixel. For each vegetation destructed pixel, its similar pixels of the same vegetation type are selected within the latitude difference of 0.5 degrees, altitude difference of 100 meters and slope difference of 3 degrees. Then the NDVImax difference of each vegetation destructed pixel and its similar pixels are calculated. The 5 similar pixels with the smallest NDVImax difference in the 8 years before the earthquake are selected as reference pixels. The mean NDVImaxs of these reference pixels after the earthquake are calculated and serve as the criterion to assess the vegetation recovery process.

A Method for Estimation of Death Tolls in Disastrous Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pai, C.; Tien, Y.; Teng, T.

2004-12-01

Fatality tolls caused by the disastrous earthquake are the one of the most important items among the earthquake damage and losses. If we can precisely estimate the potential tolls and distribution of fatality in individual districts as soon as the earthquake occurrences, it not only make emergency programs and disaster management more effective but also supply critical information to plan and manage the disaster and the allotments of disaster rescue manpower and medicine resources in a timely manner. In this study, we intend to reach the estimation of death tolls caused by the Chi-Chi earthquake in individual districts based on the Attributive Database of Victims, population data, digital maps and Geographic Information Systems. In general, there were involved many factors including the characteristics of ground motions, geological conditions, types and usage habits of buildings, distribution of population and social-economic situations etc., all are related to the damage and losses induced by the disastrous earthquake. The density of seismic stations in Taiwan is the greatest in the world at present. In the meantime, it is easy to get complete seismic data by earthquake rapid-reporting systems from the Central Weather Bureau: mostly within about a minute or less after the earthquake happened. Therefore, it becomes possible to estimate death tolls caused by the earthquake in Taiwan based on the preliminary information. Firstly, we form the arithmetic mean of the three components of the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) to give the PGA Index for each individual seismic station, according to the mainshock data of the Chi-Chi earthquake. To supply the distribution of Iso-seismic Intensity Contours in any districts and resolve the problems for which there are no seismic station within partial districts through the PGA Index and geographical coordinates in individual seismic station, the Kriging Interpolation Method and the GIS software, The population density depends on

Spatio-temporal earthquake risk assessment for the Lisbon Metropolitan Area - A contribution to improving standard methods of population exposure and vulnerability analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freire, Sérgio; Aubrecht, Christoph

2010-05-01

The recent 7.0 M earthquake that caused severe damage and destruction in parts of Haiti struck close to 5 PM (local time), at a moment when many people were not in their residences, instead being in their workplaces, schools, or churches. Community vulnerability assessment to seismic hazard relying solely on the location and density of resident-based census population, as is commonly the case, would grossly misrepresent the real situation. In particular in the context of global (climate) change, risk analysis is a research field increasingly gaining in importance whereas risk is usually defined as a function of hazard probability and vulnerability. Assessment and mapping of human vulnerability has however generally been lagging behind hazard analysis efforts. Central to the concept of vulnerability is the issue of human exposure. Analysis of exposure is often spatially tied to administrative units or reference objects such as buildings, spanning scales from the regional level to local studies for small areas. Due to human activities and mobility, the spatial distribution of population is time-dependent, especially in metropolitan areas. Accurately estimating population exposure is a key component of catastrophe loss modeling, one element of effective risk analysis and emergency management. Therefore, accounting for the spatio-temporal dynamics of human vulnerability correlates with recent recommendations to improve vulnerability analyses. Earthquakes are the prototype for a major disaster, being low-probability, rapid-onset, high-consequence events. Lisbon, Portugal, is subject to a high risk of earthquake, which can strike at any day and time, as confirmed by modern history (e.g. December 2009). The recently-approved Special Emergency and Civil Protection Plan (PEERS) is based on a Seismic Intensity map, and only contemplates resident population from the census as proxy for human exposure. In the present work we map and analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of

Coupling of Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2 and ALOS-2 to assess coseismic deformation and earthquake-induced landslides following 26 June, 2016 earthquake in Kyrgyzstan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vajedian, Sanaz; Motagh, Mahdi; Wetzel, Hans-Ulrich; Teshebaeva, Kanayim

2017-04-01

The active deformation in Kyrgyzstan results from the collision between Indian and Asia tectonic plates at a rate of 29 ± 1 mm/yr. This collision is accommodated by deformation on prominent faults, which can be ruptured coseismically and trigger other hazards like landslides. Many earthquake and earthquake-induced landslides in Kyrgyzstan occur in mountainous areas, where limited accessibility makes ground-based measurements for the assessment of their impact a challenging task. In this context, remote sensing measurements are extraordinary useful as they improve our knowledge about coseismic rupture process and provide information on other types of hazards that are triggered during and/or after the earthquakes. This investigation aims to use L-band ALOS/PALSAR, C-band Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2 data to evaluate fault slip model and coseismic-induced landslides related to 26 June 2016 Sary-Tash earthquake, southwest Kyrgyzstan. First we implement three methods to measure coseismic surface motion using radar data including Interferometric SAR (InSAR) analysis, SAR tracking technique and multiple aperture InSAR (MAI), followed by using Genetic Algorithm (GA) to invert the final displacement field to infer combination of orientation, location and slip on rectangular uniform slip fault plane. Slip distribution analysis is done by applying Tikhonov regularization to solve the constrained least-square method with Laplacian smoothing approach. The estimated coseismic slip model suggests a nearly W-E thrusting fault ruptured during the earthquake event in which the main rupture occurred at a depth between 11 and 14 km. Second, the local phase shifts related to landslides are inferred by detailed analysis pre-seismic, coseismic and postseismic C-band and L-band interferograms and the results are compared with the interpretations derived from Sentinel-2 data acquired before and after the earthquake.

Impact of earthquake source complexity and land elevation data resolution on tsunami hazard assessment and fatality estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhammad, Ario; Goda, Katsuichiro

2018-03-01

This study investigates the impact of model complexity in source characterization and digital elevation model (DEM) resolution on the accuracy of tsunami hazard assessment and fatality estimation through a case study in Padang, Indonesia. Two types of earthquake source models, i.e. complex and uniform slip models, are adopted by considering three resolutions of DEMs, i.e. 150 m, 50 m, and 10 m. For each of the three grid resolutions, 300 complex source models are generated using new statistical prediction models of earthquake source parameters developed from extensive finite-fault models of past subduction earthquakes, whilst 100 uniform slip models are constructed with variable fault geometry without slip heterogeneity. The results highlight that significant changes to tsunami hazard and fatality estimates are observed with regard to earthquake source complexity and grid resolution. Coarse resolution (i.e. 150 m) leads to inaccurate tsunami hazard prediction and fatality estimation, whilst 50-m and 10-m resolutions produce similar results. However, velocity and momentum flux are sensitive to the grid resolution and hence, at least 10-m grid resolution needs to be implemented when considering flow-based parameters for tsunami hazard and risk assessments. In addition, the results indicate that the tsunami hazard parameters and fatality number are more sensitive to the complexity of earthquake source characterization than the grid resolution. Thus, the uniform models are not recommended for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessments. Finally, the findings confirm that uncertainties of tsunami hazard level and fatality in terms of depth, velocity and momentum flux can be captured and visualized through the complex source modeling approach. From tsunami risk management perspectives, this indeed creates big data, which are useful for making effective and robust decisions.

Assessment of Stone Columns as a Mitigation Technique of Liquefaction-Induced Effects during Italian Earthquakes (May 2012)

PubMed Central

Forcellini, Davide; Tarantino, Angelo Marcello

2014-01-01

Soil liquefaction has been observed worldwide during recent major earthquakes with induced effects responsible for much of the damage, disruption of function, and considerable replacement expenses for structures. The phenomenon has not been documented in recent time with such damage in Italian context before the recent Emilia-Romagna Earthquake (May 2012). The main lateral spreading and vertical deformations affected the stability of many buildings and impacted social life inducing valuable lessons on liquefaction risk assessment and remediation. This paper aims first of all to reproduce soil response to liquefaction-induced lateral effects and thus to evaluate stone column mitigation technique effectiveness by gradually increasing the extension of remediation, in order to achieve a satisfactory lower level of permanent deformations. The study is based on the use of a FE computational interface able to analyse the earthquake-induced three-dimensional pore pressure generation adopting one of the most credited nonlinear theories in order to assess realistically the displacements connected to lateral spreading. PMID:24592148

Assessment of stone columns as a mitigation technique of liquefaction-induced effects during Italian earthquakes (May 2012).

PubMed

Forcellini, Davide; Tarantino, Angelo Marcello

2014-01-01

Soil liquefaction has been observed worldwide during recent major earthquakes with induced effects responsible for much of the damage, disruption of function, and considerable replacement expenses for structures. The phenomenon has not been documented in recent time with such damage in Italian context before the recent Emilia-Romagna Earthquake (May 2012). The main lateral spreading and vertical deformations affected the stability of many buildings and impacted social life inducing valuable lessons on liquefaction risk assessment and remediation. This paper aims first of all to reproduce soil response to liquefaction-induced lateral effects and thus to evaluate stone column mitigation technique effectiveness by gradually increasing the extension of remediation, in order to achieve a satisfactory lower level of permanent deformations. The study is based on the use of a FE computational interface able to analyse the earthquake-induced three-dimensional pore pressure generation adopting one of the most credited nonlinear theories in order to assess realistically the displacements connected to lateral spreading.

Earthquake Hazard Analysis Methods: A Review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sari, A. M.; Fakhrurrozi, A.

2018-02-01

One of natural disasters that have significantly impacted on risks and damage is an earthquake. World countries such as China, Japan, and Indonesia are countries located on the active movement of continental plates with more frequent earthquake occurrence compared to other countries. Several methods of earthquake hazard analysis have been done, for example by analyzing seismic zone and earthquake hazard micro-zonation, by using Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (N-DSHA) method, and by using Remote Sensing. In its application, it is necessary to review the effectiveness of each technique in advance. Considering the efficiency of time and the accuracy of data, remote sensing is used as a reference to the assess earthquake hazard accurately and quickly as it only takes a limited time required in the right decision-making shortly after the disaster. Exposed areas and possibly vulnerable areas due to earthquake hazards can be easily analyzed using remote sensing. Technological developments in remote sensing such as GeoEye-1 provide added value and excellence in the use of remote sensing as one of the methods in the assessment of earthquake risk and damage. Furthermore, the use of this technique is expected to be considered in designing policies for disaster management in particular and can reduce the risk of natural disasters such as earthquakes in Indonesia.

Fleeing to Fault Zones: Incorporating Syrian Refugees into Earthquake Risk Analysis along the East Anatolian and Dead Sea Rift Fault Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, B.; Paradise, T. R.

2016-12-01

The influx of millions of Syrian refugees into Turkey has rapidly changed the population distribution along the Dead Sea Rift and East Anatolian Fault zones. In contrast to other countries in the Middle East where refugees are accommodated in camp environments, the majority of displaced individuals in Turkey are integrated into cities, towns, and villages—placing stress on urban settings and increasing potential exposure to strong shaking. Yet, displaced populations are not traditionally captured in data sources used in earthquake risk analysis or loss estimations. Accordingly, we present a district-level analysis assessing the spatial overlap of earthquake hazards and refugee locations in southeastern Turkey to determine how migration patterns are altering seismic risk in the region. Using migration estimates from the U.S. Humanitarian Information Unit, we create three district-level population scenarios that combine official population statistics, refugee camp populations, and low, median, and high bounds for integrated refugee populations. We perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis alongside these population scenarios to map spatial variations in seismic risk between 2011 and late 2015. Our results show a significant relative southward increase of seismic risk for this period due to refugee migration. Additionally, we calculate earthquake fatalities for simulated earthquakes using a semi-empirical loss estimation technique to determine degree of under-estimation resulting from forgoing migration data in loss modeling. We find that including refugee populations increased casualties by 11-12% using median population estimates, and upwards of 20% using high population estimates. These results communicate the ongoing importance of placing environmental hazards in their appropriate regional and temporal context which unites physical, political, cultural, and socio-economic landscapes. Keywords: Earthquakes, Hazards, Loss-Estimation, Syrian Crisis, Migration

Examples of Communicating Uncertainty Applied to Earthquake Hazard and Risk Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wald, D. J.

2013-12-01

When is communicating scientific modeling uncertainty effective? One viewpoint is that the answer depends on whether one is communicating hazard or risk: hazards have quantifiable uncertainties (which, granted, are often ignored), yet risk uncertainties compound uncertainties inherent in the hazard with those of the risk calculations, and are thus often larger. Larger, yet more meaningful: since risk entails societal impact of some form, consumers of such information tend to have a better grasp of the potential uncertainty ranges for loss information than they do for less-tangible hazard values (like magnitude, peak acceleration, or stream flow). I present two examples that compare and contrast communicating uncertainty for earthquake hazard and risk products. The first example is the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) ShakeMap system, which portrays the uncertain, best estimate of the distribution and intensity of shaking over the potentially impacted region. The shaking intensity is well constrained at seismograph locations yet is uncertain elsewhere, so shaking uncertainties are quantified and presented spatially. However, with ShakeMap, it seems that users tend to believe what they see is accurate in part because (1) considering the shaking uncertainty complicates the picture, and (2) it would not necessarily alter their decision-making. In contrast, when it comes to making earthquake-response decisions based on uncertain loss estimates, actions tend to be made only after analysis of the confidence in (or source of) such estimates. Uncertain ranges of loss estimates instill tangible images for users, and when such uncertainties become large, intuitive reality-check alarms go off, for example, when the range of losses presented become too wide to be useful. The USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, which in near-real time alerts users to the likelihood of ranges of potential fatalities and economic impact, is aimed at

OMG Earthquake! Can Twitter improve earthquake response?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Earle, P. S.; Guy, M.; Ostrum, C.; Horvath, S.; Buckmaster, R. A.

2009-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public, text messages, can augment its earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. The goal is to gather near real-time, earthquake-related messages (tweets) and provide geo-located earthquake detections and rough maps of the corresponding felt areas. Twitter and other social Internet technologies are providing the general public with anecdotal earthquake hazard information before scientific information has been published from authoritative sources. People local to an event often publish information within seconds via these technologies. In contrast, depending on the location of the earthquake, scientific alerts take between 2 to 20 minutes. Examining the tweets following the March 30, 2009, M4.3 Morgan Hill earthquake shows it is possible (in some cases) to rapidly detect and map the felt area of an earthquake using Twitter responses. Within a minute of the earthquake, the frequency of “earthquake” tweets rose above the background level of less than 1 per hour to about 150 per minute. Using the tweets submitted in the first minute, a rough map of the felt area can be obtained by plotting the tweet locations. Mapping the tweets from the first six minutes shows observations extending from Monterey to Sacramento, similar to the perceived shaking region mapped by the USGS “Did You Feel It” system. The tweets submitted after the earthquake also provided (very) short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking. Accurately assessing the potential and robustness of a Twitter-based system is difficult because only tweets spanning the previous seven days can be searched, making a historical study impossible. We have, however, been archiving tweets for several months, and it is clear that significant limitations do exist. The main drawback is the lack of quantitative information

Increased Earthquake Rates in the Central and Eastern US Portend Higher Earthquake Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llenos, A. L.; Rubinstein, J. L.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Mueller, C. S.; Michael, A. J.; McGarr, A.; Petersen, M. D.; Weingarten, M.; Holland, A. A.

2014-12-01

Since 2009 the central and eastern United States has experienced an unprecedented increase in the rate of M≥3 earthquakes that is unlikely to be due to natural variation. Where the rates have increased so has the seismic hazard, making it important to understand these changes. Areas with significant seismicity increases are limited to areas where oil and gas production take place. By far the largest contributor to the seismicity increase is Oklahoma, where recent studies suggest that these rate changes may be due to fluid injection (e.g., Keranen et al., Geology, 2013; Science, 2014). Moreover, the area of increased seismicity in northern Oklahoma that began in 2013 coincides with the Mississippi Lime play, where well completions greatly increased the year before the seismicity increase. This suggests a link to oil and gas production either directly or from the disposal of significant amounts of produced water within the play. For the purpose of assessing the hazard due to these earthquakes, should they be treated differently from natural earthquakes? Previous studies suggest that induced seismicity may differ from natural seismicity in clustering characteristics or frequency-magnitude distributions (e.g., Bachmann et al., GJI, 2011; Llenos and Michael, BSSA, 2013). These differences could affect time-independent hazard computations, which typically assume that clustering and size distribution remain constant. In Oklahoma, as well as other areas of suspected induced seismicity, we find that earthquakes since 2009 tend to be considerably more clustered in space and time than before 2009. However differences between various regional and national catalogs leave unclear whether there are significant changes in magnitude distribution. Whether they are due to natural or industrial causes, the increased earthquake rates in these areas could increase the hazard in ways that are not accounted for in current hazard assessment practice. Clearly the possibility of induced

Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes.

PubMed

Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

2016-07-15

Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Earthquake Drill using the Earthquake Early Warning System at an Elementary School

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oki, Satoko; Yazaki, Yoshiaki; Koketsu, Kazuki

2010-05-01

Japan frequently suffers from many kinds of disasters such as earthquakes, typhoons, floods, volcanic eruptions, and landslides. On average, we lose about 120 people a year due to natural hazards in this decade. Above all, earthquakes are noteworthy, since it may kill thousands of people in a moment like in Kobe in 1995. People know that we may have "a big one" some day as long as we live on this land and that what to do; retrofit houses, appliance heavy furniture to walls, add latches to kitchen cabinets, and prepare emergency packs. Yet most of them do not take the action, and result in the loss of many lives. It is only the victims that learn something from the earthquake, and it has never become the lore of the nations. One of the most essential ways to reduce the damage is to educate the general public to be able to make the sound decision on what to do at the moment when an earthquake hits. This will require the knowledge of the backgrounds of the on-going phenomenon. The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), therefore, offered for public subscription to choose several model areas to adopt scientific education to the local elementary schools. This presentation is the report of a year and half courses that we had at the model elementary school in Tokyo Metropolitan Area. The tectonic setting of this area is very complicated; there are the Pacific and Philippine Sea plates subducting beneath the North America and the Eurasia plates. The subduction of the Philippine Sea plate causes mega-thrust earthquakes such as the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M 7.9) making 105,000 fatalities. A magnitude 7 or greater earthquake beneath this area is recently evaluated to occur with a probability of 70 % in 30 years. This is of immediate concern for the devastating loss of life and property because the Tokyo urban region now has a population of 42 million and is the center of approximately 40 % of the nation's activities, which may cause great global

A Promising Tool to Assess Long Term Public Health Effects of Natural Disasters: Combining Routine Health Survey Data and Geographic Information Systems to Assess Stunting after the 2001 Earthquake in Peru

PubMed Central

Rydberg, Henny; Marrone, Gaetano; Strömdahl, Susanne; von Schreeb, Johan

2015-01-01

Background Research on long-term health effects of earthquakes is scarce, especially in low- and middle-income countries, which are disproportionately affected by disasters. To date, progress in this area has been hampered by the lack of tools to accurately measure these effects. Here, we explored whether long-term public health effects of earthquakes can be assessed using a combination of readily available data sources on public health and geographic distribution of seismic activity. Methods We used childhood stunting as a proxy for public health effects. Data on stunting were attained from Demographic and Health Surveys. Earthquake data were obtained from U.S. Geological Survey’s ShakeMaps, geographic information system-based maps that divide earthquake affected areas into different shaking intensity zones. We combined these two data sources to categorize the surveyed children into different earthquake exposure groups, based on how much their area of residence was affected by the earthquake. We assessed the feasibility of the approach using a real earthquake case – an 8.4 magnitude earthquake that hit southern Peru in 2001. Results and conclusions Our results indicate that the combination of health survey data and disaster data may offer a readily accessible and accurate method for determining the long-term public health consequences of a natural disaster. Our work allowed us to make pre- and post- earthquake comparisons of stunting, an important indicator of the well-being of a society, as well as comparisons between populations with different levels of exposure to the earthquake. Furthermore, the detailed GIS based data provided a precise and objective definition of earthquake exposure. Our approach should be considered in future public health and disaster research exploring the long-term effects of earthquakes and potentially other natural disasters. PMID:26090999

A Promising Tool to Assess Long Term Public Health Effects of Natural Disasters: Combining Routine Health Survey Data and Geographic Information Systems to Assess Stunting after the 2001 Earthquake in Peru.

PubMed

Rydberg, Henny; Marrone, Gaetano; Strömdahl, Susanne; von Schreeb, Johan

2015-01-01

Research on long-term health effects of earthquakes is scarce, especially in low- and middle-income countries, which are disproportionately affected by disasters. To date, progress in this area has been hampered by the lack of tools to accurately measure these effects. Here, we explored whether long-term public health effects of earthquakes can be assessed using a combination of readily available data sources on public health and geographic distribution of seismic activity. We used childhood stunting as a proxy for public health effects. Data on stunting were attained from Demographic and Health Surveys. Earthquake data were obtained from U.S. Geological Survey's ShakeMaps, geographic information system-based maps that divide earthquake affected areas into different shaking intensity zones. We combined these two data sources to categorize the surveyed children into different earthquake exposure groups, based on how much their area of residence was affected by the earthquake. We assessed the feasibility of the approach using a real earthquake case--an 8.4 magnitude earthquake that hit southern Peru in 2001. Our results indicate that the combination of health survey data and disaster data may offer a readily accessible and accurate method for determining the long-term public health consequences of a natural disaster. Our work allowed us to make pre- and post-earthquake comparisons of stunting, an important indicator of the well-being of a society, as well as comparisons between populations with different levels of exposure to the earthquake. Furthermore, the detailed GIS based data provided a precise and objective definition of earthquake exposure. Our approach should be considered in future public health and disaster research exploring the long-term effects of earthquakes and potentially other natural disasters.

Earthquake triggering in southeast Africa following the 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neves, Miguel; Custódio, Susana; Peng, Zhigang; Ayorinde, Adebayo

2018-02-01

In this paper we present evidence of earthquake dynamic triggering in southeast Africa. We analysed seismic waveforms recorded at 53 broad-band and short-period stations in order to identify possible increases in the rate of microearthquakes and tremor due to the passage of teleseismic waves generated by the Mw8.6 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake. We found evidence of triggered local earthquakes and no evidence of triggered tremor in the region. We assessed the statistical significance of the increase in the number of local earthquakes using β-statistics. Statistically significant dynamic triggering of local earthquakes was observed at 7 out of the 53 analysed stations. Two of these stations are located in the northeast coast of Madagascar and the other five stations are located in the Kaapvaal Craton, southern Africa. We found no evidence of dynamically triggered seismic activity in stations located near the structures of the East African Rift System. Hydrothermal activity exists close to the stations that recorded dynamic triggering, however, it also exists near the East African Rift System structures where no triggering was observed. Our results suggest that factors other than solely tectonic regime and geothermalism are needed to explain the mechanisms that underlie earthquake triggering.

Defining Community Disaster Preparedness as a Resilience Factor for Earthquake Risk Assessment in Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sungay, B.; Durukal, E.; Kilic, O.; Konukcu, B.; Basmaci, A. E.; Khazai, B.; Erdik, M.

2009-04-01

The natural events such as earthquakes turn out to be disasters as a result of not only the poor conditions of the built area and infrastructure, but also affected by the socioeconomic fragility and lack of resilience of the community exposed. Likewise, resilience factors play role in increasing the ability of people to cope with hazards. Social resilience is the capacity of social groups and communities to recover from, or respond positively to, crises. Emergency management plans must recognize and build on this capacity, and that improved indicators of social resilience should receive priority consideration in the application of these plans. The physical risk factors and their damage assessment have been pointed out in previous earthquake risk assessment and scenario studies conducted by Bogazici University and OYO International. A rational assessment of the risk aggravating factors is essential in order to reach to a more complete coverage of the overall risk. It would also introduce the social factors that need to be reduced or strengthened through public policies and actions in order to increase the resilience of the community. With experience from several social studies conducted under CENDIM, Kandilli Observatory & Earthquake Research Institute's Disaster Preparedness Education Unit, and research of the studies conducted by several other national and international institutions, we are defining the community disaster preparedness as an indicator for resilience. Social resilience is understood to have two important properties: resistance, recovery. Resistance relates to a community's efforts to withstand a disaster and its consequences whereas recovery relates to a community's ability to coming back to its pre-disaster level of "normalcy". Researches also indicate that the need for local-level and community-based approaches is recognized in achieving sustainable hazard risk reduction. We will conceptually discuss the description and assessment of the community

Modeling, Forecasting and Mitigating Extreme Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Le Mouel, J.; Soloviev, A.

2012-12-01

Recent earthquake disasters highlighted the importance of multi- and trans-disciplinary studies of earthquake risk. A major component of earthquake disaster risk analysis is hazards research, which should cover not only a traditional assessment of ground shaking, but also studies of geodetic, paleoseismic, geomagnetic, hydrological, deep drilling and other geophysical and geological observations together with comprehensive modeling of earthquakes and forecasting extreme events. Extreme earthquakes (large magnitude and rare events) are manifestations of complex behavior of the lithosphere structured as a hierarchical system of blocks of different sizes. Understanding of physics and dynamics of the extreme events comes from observations, measurements and modeling. A quantitative approach to simulate earthquakes in models of fault dynamics will be presented. The models reproduce basic features of the observed seismicity (e.g., the frequency-magnitude relationship, clustering of earthquakes, occurrence of extreme seismic events). They provide a link between geodynamic processes and seismicity, allow studying extreme events, influence of fault network properties on seismic patterns and seismic cycles, and assist, in a broader sense, in earthquake forecast modeling. Some aspects of predictability of large earthquakes (how well can large earthquakes be predicted today?) will be also discussed along with possibilities in mitigation of earthquake disasters (e.g., on 'inverse' forensic investigations of earthquake disasters).

Stability assessment of structures under earthquake hazard through GRID technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prieto Castrillo, F.; Boton Fernandez, M.

2009-04-01

This work presents a GRID framework to estimate the vulnerability of structures under earthquake hazard. The tool has been designed to cover the needs of a typical earthquake engineering stability analysis; preparation of input data (pre-processing), response computation and stability analysis (post-processing). In order to validate the application over GRID, a simplified model of structure under artificially generated earthquake records has been implemented. To achieve this goal, the proposed scheme exploits the GRID technology and its main advantages (parallel intensive computing, huge storage capacity and collaboration analysis among institutions) through intensive interaction among the GRID elements (Computing Element, Storage Element, LHC File Catalogue, federated database etc.) The dynamical model is described by a set of ordinary differential equations (ODE's) and by a set of parameters. Both elements, along with the integration engine, are encapsulated into Java classes. With this high level design, subsequent improvements/changes of the model can be addressed with little effort. In the procedure, an earthquake record database is prepared and stored (pre-processing) in the GRID Storage Element (SE). The Metadata of these records is also stored in the GRID federated database. This Metadata contains both relevant information about the earthquake (as it is usual in a seismic repository) and also the Logical File Name (LFN) of the record for its later retrieval. Then, from the available set of accelerograms in the SE, the user can specify a range of earthquake parameters to carry out a dynamic analysis. This way, a GRID job is created for each selected accelerogram in the database. At the GRID Computing Element (CE), displacements are then obtained by numerical integration of the ODE's over time. The resulting response for that configuration is stored in the GRID Storage Element (SE) and the maximum structure displacement is computed. Then, the corresponding

The costs and benefits of reconstruction options in Nepal using the CEDIM FDA modelled and empirical analysis following the 2015 earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniell, James; Schaefer, Andreas; Wenzel, Friedemann; Khazai, Bijan; Girard, Trevor; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Kunz, Michael; Muehr, Bernhard

2016-04-01

Over the days following the 2015 Nepal earthquake, rapid loss estimates of deaths and the economic loss and reconstruction cost were undertaken by our research group in conjunction with the World Bank. This modelling relied on historic losses from other Nepal earthquakes as well as detailed socioeconomic data and earthquake loss information via CATDAT. The modelled results were very close to the final death toll and reconstruction cost for the 2015 earthquake of around 9000 deaths and a direct building loss of ca. 3 billion (a). A description of the process undertaken to produce these loss estimates is described and the potential for use in analysing reconstruction costs from future Nepal earthquakes in rapid time post-event. The reconstruction cost and death toll model is then used as the base model for the examination of the effect of spending money on earthquake retrofitting of buildings versus complete reconstruction of buildings. This is undertaken future events using empirical statistics from past events along with further analytical modelling. The effects of investment vs. the time of a future event is also explored. Preliminary low-cost options (b) along the line of other country studies for retrofitting (ca. 100) are examined versus the option of different building typologies in Nepal as well as investment in various sectors of construction. The effect of public vs. private capital expenditure post-earthquake is also explored as part of this analysis, as well as spending on other components outside of earthquakes. a) http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/experts-calculate-new-loss-predictions-for-nepal-quake/ b) http://www.aees.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/23-Daniell.pdf

Assessment of Structural Resistance of building 4862 to Earthquake and Tornado Forces [SEC 1 and 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

METCALF, I.L.

1999-12-06

This report presents the results of work done for Hanford Engineering Laboratory under contract Y213-544-12662. LATA performed an assessment of building 4862 resistance to earthquake and tornado forces.

Assessment of the ripple effects and spatial heterogeneity of total losses in the capital of China after a great catastrophic shock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhengtao; Li, Ning; Xie, Wei; Liu, Yu; Feng, Jieling; Chen, Xi; Liu, Li

2017-03-01

The total losses caused by natural disasters have spatial heterogeneity due to the different economic development levels inside the disaster-hit areas. This paper uses scenarios of direct economic loss to introduce the sectors' losses caused by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (2008 WCE) in Beijing, utilizing the Adaptive Regional Input-Output (ARIO) model and the Inter-regional ripple effect (IRRE) model. The purpose is to assess the ripple effects of indirect economic loss and spatial heterogeneity of both direct and indirect economic loss at the scale of the smallest administrative divisions of China (streets, villages, and towns). The results indicate that the district of Beijing with the most severe indirect economic loss is the Chaoyang District; the finance and insurance industry (15, see Table 1) of Chaowai Street suffers the most in the Chaoyang District, which is 1.46 times that of its direct economic loss. During 2008-2014, the average annual GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate of Beijing was decreased 3.63 % by the catastrophe. Compared with the 8 % of GDP growth rate target, the decreasing GDP growth rate is a significant and noticeable economic impact, and it can be efficiently mitigated by increasing rescue effort and by supporting the industries which are located in the seriously damaged regions.

Statistical analysis of earthquakes after the 1999 MW 7.7 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake based on a modified Reasenberg-Jones model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yuh-Ing; Huang, Chi-Shen; Liu, Jann-Yenq

2015-12-01

We investigated the temporal-spatial hazard of the earthquakes after the 1999 September 21 MW = 7.7 Chi-Chi shock in a continental region of Taiwan. The Reasenberg-Jones (RJ) model (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989, 1994) that combines the frequency-magnitude distribution (Gutenberg and Richter, 1944) and time-decaying occurrence rate (Utsu et al., 1995) is conventionally employed for assessing the earthquake hazard after a large shock. However, it is found that the b values in the frequency-magnitude distribution of the earthquakes in the study region dramatically decreased from background values after the Chi-Chi shock, and then gradually increased up. The observation of a time-dependent frequency-magnitude distribution motivated us to propose a modified RJ model (MRJ) to assess the earthquake hazard. To see how the models perform on assessing short-term earthquake hazard, the RJ and MRJ models were separately used to sequentially forecast earthquakes in the study region. To depict the potential rupture area for future earthquakes, we further constructed relative hazard (RH) maps based on the two models. The Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves (Swets, 1988) finally demonstrated that the RH map based on the MRJ model was, in general, superior to the one based on the original RJ model for exploring the spatial hazard of earthquakes in a short time after the Chi-Chi shock.

Spatial earthquake hazard assessment of Evansville, Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rockaway, T.D.; Frost, J.D.; Eggert, D.L.; Luna, R.

1997-01-01

The earthquake hazard has been evaluated for a 150-square-kilometer area around Evansville, Indiana. GIS-QUAKE, a system that combines liquefaction and ground motion analysis routines with site-specific geological, geotechnical, and seismological information, was used for the analysis. The hazard potential was determined by using 586 SPT borings, 27 CPT sounding, 39 shear-wave velocity profiles and synthesized acceleration records for body-wave magnitude 6.5 and 7.3 mid-continental earthquakes, occurring at distances of 50 km and 250 km, respectively. The results of the GIS-QUAKE hazard analyses for Evansville identify areas with a high hazard potential that had not previously been identified in earthquake zonation studies. The Pigeon Creek area specifically is identified as having significant potential for liquefaction-induced damage. Damage as a result of ground motion amplification is determined to be a moderate concern throughout the area. Differences in the findings of this zonation study and previous work are attributed to the size and range of the database, the hazard evaluation methodologies, and the geostatistical interpolation techniques used to estimate the hazard potential. Further, assumptions regarding the groundwater elevations made in previous studies are also considered to have had a significant effect on the results.

Damages from the 20 September earthquakes near Klamath Falls, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dewey, J.W.

1993-01-01

Most of the damage resulting from the earthquakes was reported from Klamath Falls, approximately 20 km from the source region of earthquakes. As has commonly been the case with earthquakes in other parts of the United States, the degree of damage was highly uneven in Klamath Falls. Most of the town escaped with little damage to buildings or building contents. Losses were concentrated in the downtown area, but even there most of the buildings were not damaged. The unevenness of damage in earthquakes results primarily from large differences in the seismic resistance of individual buildings and differences in the seismic response due to different soil conditions and geology beneath buildings. 

Extreme Magnitude Earthquakes and their Economical Consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavez, M.; Cabrera, E.; Ashworth, M.; Perea, N.; Emerson, D.; Salazar, A.; Moulinec, C.

2011-12-01

The frequency of occurrence of extreme magnitude earthquakes varies from tens to thousands of years, depending on the considered seismotectonic region of the world. However, the human and economic losses when their hypocenters are located in the neighborhood of heavily populated and/or industrialized regions, can be very large, as recently observed for the 1985 Mw 8.01 Michoacan, Mexico and the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku, Japan, earthquakes. Herewith, a methodology is proposed in order to estimate the probability of exceedance of: the intensities of extreme magnitude earthquakes, PEI and of their direct economical consequences PEDEC. The PEI are obtained by using supercomputing facilities to generate samples of the 3D propagation of extreme earthquake plausible scenarios, and enlarge those samples by Monte Carlo simulation. The PEDEC are computed by using appropriate vulnerability functions combined with the scenario intensity samples, and Monte Carlo simulation. An example of the application of the methodology due to the potential occurrence of extreme Mw 8.5 subduction earthquakes on Mexico City is presented.

Use of Ground Motion Simulations of a Historical Earthquake for the Assessment of Past and Future Urban Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kentel, E.; Çelik, A.; karimzadeh Naghshineh, S.; Askan, A.

2017-12-01

Erzincan city located in the Eastern part of Turkey at the conjunction of three active faults is one of the most hazardous regions in the world. In addition to several historical events, this city has experienced one of the largest earthquakes during the last century: The 27 December 1939 (Ms=8.0) event. With limited knowledge of the tectonic structure by then, the city center was relocated to the North after the 1939 earthquake by almost 5km, indeed closer to the existing major strike slip fault. This decision coupled with poor construction technologies, led to severe damage during a later event that occurred on 13 March 1992 (Mw=6.6). The 1939 earthquake occurred in the pre-instrumental era in the region with no available local seismograms whereas the 1992 event was only recorded by 3 nearby stations. There are empirical isoseismal maps from both events indicating indirectly the spatial distribution of the damage. In this study, we focus on this region and present a multidisciplinary approach to discuss the different components of uncertainties involved in the assessment and mitigation of seismic risk in urban areas. For this initial attempt, ground motion simulation of the 1939 event is performed to obtain the anticipated ground motions and shaking intensities. Using these quantified results along with the spatial distribution of the observed damage, the relocation decision is assessed and suggestions are provided for future large earthquakes to minimize potential earthquake risks.

Feasibility study of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thelen, Weston A.; Hotovec-Ellis, Alicia J.; Bodin, Paul

2016-09-30

The effects of earthquake shaking on the population and infrastructure across the State of Hawaii could be catastrophic, and the high seismic hazard in the region emphasizes the likelihood of such an event. Earthquake early warning (EEW) has the potential to give several seconds of warning before strong shaking starts, and thus reduce loss of life and damage to property. The two approaches to EEW are (1) a network approach (such as ShakeAlert or ElarmS) where the regional seismic network is used to detect the earthquake and distribute the alarm and (2) a local approach where a critical facility has a single seismometer (or small array) and a warning system on the premises.The network approach, also referred to here as ShakeAlert or ElarmS, uses the closest stations within a regional seismic network to detect and characterize an earthquake. Most parameters used for a network approach require observations on multiple stations (typically 3 or 4), which slows down the alarm time slightly, but the alarms are generally more reliable than with single-station EEW approaches. The network approach also benefits from having stations closer to the source of any potentially damaging earthquake, so that alarms can be sent ahead to anyone who subscribes to receive the notification. Thus, a fully implemented ShakeAlert system can provide seconds of warning for both critical facilities and general populations ahead of damaging earthquake shaking.The cost to implement and maintain a fully operational ShakeAlert system is high compared to a local approach or single-station solution, but the benefits of a ShakeAlert system would be felt statewide—the warning times for strong shaking are potentially longer for most sources at most locations.The local approach, referred to herein as “single station,” uses measurements from a single seismometer to assess whether strong earthquake shaking can be expected. Because of the reliance on a single station, false alarms are more common than

A Poisson method application to the assessment of the earthquake hazard in the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Türker, Tuğba, E-mail: tturker@ktu.edu.tr; Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: ybayrak@agri.edu.tr

North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is one from the most important strike-slip fault zones in the world and located among regions in the highest seismic activity. The NAFZ observed very large earthquakes from the past to present. The aim of this study; the important parameters of Gutenberg-Richter relationship (a and b values) estimated and this parameters taking into account, earthquakes were examined in the between years 1900-2015 for 10 different seismic source regions in the NAFZ. After that estimated occurrence probabilities and return periods of occurring earthquakes in fault zone in the next years, and is being assessed with Poisson methodmore » the earthquake hazard of the NAFZ. The Region 2 were observed the largest earthquakes for the only historical period and hasn’t been observed large earthquake for the instrumental period in this region. Two historical earthquakes (1766, M{sub S}=7.3 and 1897, M{sub S}=7.0) are included for Region 2 (Marmara Region) where a large earthquake is expected in the next years. The 10 different seismic source regions are determined the relationships between the cumulative number-magnitude which estimated a and b parameters with the equation of LogN=a-bM in the Gutenberg-Richter. A homogenous earthquake catalog for M{sub S} magnitude which is equal or larger than 4.0 is used for the time period between 1900 and 2015. The database of catalog used in the study has been created from International Seismological Center (ISC) and Boğazici University Kandilli observation and earthquake research institute (KOERI). The earthquake data were obtained until from 1900 to 1974 from KOERI and ISC until from 1974 to 2015 from KOERI. The probabilities of the earthquake occurring are estimated for the next 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 and 100 years in the 10 different seismic source regions. The highest earthquake occur probabilities in 10 different seismic source regions in the next years estimated that the region Tokat-Erzincan (Region 9

Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang, Indonesia, considering stochastic earthquake scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhammad, Ario; Goda, Katsuichiro; Alexander, Nicholas A.; Kongko, Widjo; Muhari, Abdul

2017-12-01

This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0) that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 and 10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan - including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary shelters considering the impact due to ground shaking and tsunami, and integrated horizontal-vertical evacuation time maps - has been developed based on the stochastic tsunami simulation results. The developed evacuation plans highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation for future tsunamigenic events.

Insuring against earthquakes: simulating the cost-effectiveness of disaster preparedness.

PubMed

de Hoop, Thomas; Ruben, Ruerd

2010-04-01

Ex-ante measures to improve risk preparedness for natural disasters are generally considered to be more effective than ex-post measures. Nevertheless, most resources are allocated after an event in geographical areas that are vulnerable to natural disasters. This paper analyses the cost-effectiveness of ex-ante adaptation measures in the wake of earthquakes and provides an assessment of the future role of private and public agencies in disaster risk management. The study uses a simulation model approach to evaluate consumption losses after earthquakes under different scenarios of intervention. Particular attention is given to the role of activity diversification measures in enhancing disaster preparedness and the contributions of (targeted) microcredit and education programmes for reconstruction following a disaster. Whereas the former measures are far more cost-effective, missing markets and perverse incentives tend to make ex-post measures a preferred option, thus occasioning underinvestment in ex-ante adaptation initiatives.

The California Post-Earthquake Information Clearinghouse: A Plan to Learn From the Next Large California Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loyd, R.; Walter, S.; Fenton, J.; Tubbesing, S.; Greene, M.

2008-12-01

In the rush to remove debris after a damaging earthquake, perishable data related to a wide range of impacts on the physical, built and social environments can be lost. The California Post-Earthquake Information Clearinghouse is intended to prevent this data loss by supporting the earth scientists, engineers, and social and policy researchers who will conduct fieldwork in the affected areas in the hours and days following the earthquake to study these effects. First called for by Governor Ronald Reagan following the destructive M6.5 San Fernando earthquake in 1971, the concept of the Clearinghouse has since been incorporated into the response plans of the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (USGS Circular 1242). This presentation is intended to acquaint scientists with the purpose, functions, and services of the Clearinghouse. Typically, the Clearinghouse is set up in the vicinity of the earthquake within 24 hours of the mainshock and is maintained for several days to several weeks. It provides a location where field researchers can assemble to share and discuss their observations, plan and coordinate subsequent field work, and communicate significant findings directly to the emergency responders and to the public through press conferences. As the immediate response effort winds down, the Clearinghouse will ensure that collected data are archived and made available through "lessons learned" reports and publications that follow significant earthquakes. Participants in the quarterly meetings of the Clearinghouse include representatives from state and federal agencies, universities, NGOs and other private groups. Overall management of the Clearinghouse is delegated to the agencies represented by the authors above.

Assessing the location and magnitude of the 20 October 1870 Charlevoix, Quebec, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ebel, John E.; Dupuy, Megan; Bakun, William H.

2013-01-01

The Charlevoix, Quebec, earthquake of 20 October 1870 caused damage to several towns in Quebec and was felt throughout much of southeastern Canada and along the U.S. Atlantic seaboard from Maine to Maryland. Site‐specific damage and felt reports from Canadian and U.S. cities and towns were used in analyses of the location and magnitude of the earthquake. The macroseismic center of the earthquake was very close to Baie‐St‐Paul, where the greatest damage was reported, and the intensity magnitude MI was found to be 5.8, with a 95% probability range of 5.5–6.0. After corrections for epicentral‐distance differences are applied, the modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) data for the 1870 earthquake and for the moment magnitude M 6.2 Charlevoix earthquake of 1925 at common sites show that on average, the MMI readings are about 0.8 intensity units smaller for the 1870 earthquake than for the 1925 earthquake, suggesting that the 1870 earthquake was MI 5.7. A similar comparison of the MMI data for the 1870 earthquake with the corresponding data for the M 5.9 1988 Saguenay event suggests that the 1870 earthquake was MI 6.0. These analyses all suggest that the magnitude of the 1870 Charlevoix earthquake is between MI 5.5 and MI 6.0, with a best estimate of MI 5.8.

ShakeCast: Automating and improving the use of shakemap for post-earthquake deeision-making and response

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wald, D.; Lin, K.-W.; Porter, K.; Turner, Loren

2008-01-01

When a potentially damaging earthquake occurs, utility and other lifeline managers, emergency responders, and other critical users have an urgent need for information about the impact on their particular facilities so they can make appropriate decisions and take quick actions to ensure safety and restore system functionality. ShakeMap, a tool used to portray the extent of potentially damaging shaking following an earthquake, on its own can be useful for emergency response, loss estimation, and public information. However, to take full advantage of the potential of ShakeMap, we introduce ShakeCast. ShakeCast facilitates the complicated assessment of potential damage to a user's widely distributed facilities by comparing the complex shaking distribution with the potentially highly variable damageability of their inventory to provide a simple, hierarchical list and maps of structures or facilities most likely impacted. ShakeCast is a freely available, post-earthquake situational awareness application that automatically retrieves earthquake shaking data from ShakeMap, compares intensity measures against users' facilities, sends notifications of potential damage to responsible parties, and generates facility damage maps and other Web-based products for both public and private emergency managers and responders. ?? 2008, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

FORESHOCKS AND TIME-DEPENDENT EARTHQUAKE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Lucile M.

1985-01-01

The probability that an earthquake in southern California (M greater than equivalent to 3. 0) will be followed by an earthquake of larger magnitude within 5 days and 10 km (i. e. , will be a foreshock) is 6 plus or minus 0. 5 per cent (1 S. D. ), and is not significantly dependent on the magnitude of the possible foreshock between M equals 3 and M equals 5. The probability that an earthquake will be followed by an M greater than equivalent to 5. 0 main shock, however, increases with magnitude of the foreshock from less than 1 per cent at M greater than equivalent to 3 to 6. 5 plus or minus 2. 5 per cent (1 S. D. ) at M greater than equivalent to 5. The main shock will most likely occur in the first hour after the foreshock, and the probability that a main shock will occur in the first hour decreases with elapsed time from the occurrence of the possible foreshock by approximately the inverse of time. Thus, the occurrence of an earthquake of M greater than equivalent to 3. 0 in southern California increases the earthquake hazard within a small space-time window several orders of magnitude above the normal background level.

Earthquake Loading Assessment to Evaluate Liquefaction Potential in Emilia-Romagna Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daminelli, R.; Marcellini, A.; Tento, A.

2016-12-01

The May-June 2012 seismic sequence that struck Lombardia and Emilia-Romagna consisted of seven main events of magnitude greater than 5 followed by numerous aftershocks. The strongest earthquakes occurred on May 20 (M=5.9) and May 29 (M=5.8). The widespread soil liquefaction, unexpected because of the moderate magnitude of the events, pushed the local authorities to issue research projects aimed to define the earthquake loading to evaluate the liquefaction safety factor. The reasons explained below led us to adopt a deterministic hazard approach to evaluate the seismic parameters relevant to liquefaction assessment, despite the fact that the Italian Seismic Building Code (NTC08) is based on probabilistic hazard analysis. For urban planning and building design geologists generally adopt the CRR/CSR technique to assess liquefaction potential; therefore we considered PGA and a design magnitude to be representative of the seismic loading. The procedure adopted consists: a) identification of seismic source zones and characterization of each zone by the maximum magnitude; b) evaluation of the source to site distance and c) adoption of a suitable attenuation law to compute the expected PGA at the site, given the site condition and the design magnitude. The design magnitude can be: the maximum magnitude; the magnitude that causes the largest PGA, or both. The PGA values obtained are larger with respect to the 474 years return period PGA prescribed by NTC08 for the seismic design for ordinary buildings. We conducted a CPTU resistance test intended to define the CRR at the village of Cavezzo, situated in the epicentral area of the 2012 earthquake. The CRR/CSR ratio led to an elevated liquefaction risk at the analysed site. On the contrary the adoption of the 474 years return period PGA of the NTCO8 prescribed for Cavezzo site led to a negligible liquefaction risk. Note that very close to the investigated site several liquefaction phenomena were observed.

Earthquake Loading Assessment to Evaluate Liquefaction Potential in Emilia-Romagna Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daminelli, Rosastella; Marcellini, Alberto; Tento, Alberto

2017-04-01

The May-June 2012 seismic sequence that struck Lombardia and Emilia-Romagna consisted of seven main events of magnitude greater than 5 followed by numerous aftershocks. The strongest earthquakes occurred on May 20 (M=5.9) and May 29 (M=5.8). The widespread soil liquefaction, unexpected because of the moderate magnitude of the events, pushed the local authorities to issue research projects aimed to define the earthquake loading to evaluate the liquefaction safety factor. The reasons explained below led us to adopt a deterministic hazard approach to evaluate the seismic parameters relevant to liquefaction assessment, despite the fact that the Italian Seismic Building Code (NTC08) is based on probabilistic hazard analysis. For urban planning and building design geologists generally adopt the CRR/CSR technique to assess liquefaction potential; therefore we considered PGA and a design magnitude to be representative of the seismic loading. The procedure adopted consists: a) identification of seismic source zones and characterization of each zone by the maximum magnitude; b) evaluation of the source to site distance and c) adoption of a suitable attenuation law to compute the expected PGA at the site, given the site condition and the design magnitude. The design magnitude can be: the maximum magnitude; the magnitude that causes the largest PGA, or both. The PGA values obtained are larger with respect to the 474 years return period PGA prescribed by NTC08 for the seismic design for ordinary buildings. We conducted a CPTU resistance test intended to define the CRR at the village of Cavezzo, situated in the epicentral area of the 2012 earthquake. The CRR/CSR ratio led to an elevated liquefaction risk at the analysed site. On the contrary the adoption of the 474 years return period PGA of the NTCO8 prescribed for Cavezzo site led to a negligible liquefaction risk. Note that very close to the investigated site several liquefaction phenomena were observed.

High Attenuation Rate for Shallow, Small Earthquakes in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Si, Hongjun; Koketsu, Kazuki; Miyake, Hiroe

2017-09-01

We compared the attenuation characteristics of peak ground accelerations (PGAs) and velocities (PGVs) of strong motion from shallow, small earthquakes that occurred in Japan with those predicted by the equations of Si and Midorikawa (J Struct Constr Eng 523:63-70, 1999). The observed PGAs and PGVs at stations far from the seismic source decayed more rapidly than the predicted ones. The same tendencies have been reported for deep, moderate, and large earthquakes, but not for shallow, moderate, and large earthquakes. This indicates that the peak values of ground motion from shallow, small earthquakes attenuate more steeply than those from shallow, moderate or large earthquakes. To investigate the reason for this difference, we numerically simulated strong ground motion for point sources of M w 4 and 6 earthquakes using a 2D finite difference method. The analyses of the synthetic waveforms suggested that the above differences are caused by surface waves, which are predominant at stations far from the seismic source for shallow, moderate earthquakes but not for shallow, small earthquakes. Thus, although loss due to reflection at the boundaries of the discontinuous Earth structure occurs in all shallow earthquakes, the apparent attenuation rate for a moderate or large earthquake is essentially the same as that of body waves propagating in a homogeneous medium due to the dominance of surface waves.

Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake Preparedness Project - A Progress Report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayashi, H.

2010-12-01

Munich Re once ranked that Tokyo metropolitan region, the capital of Japan, is the most vulnerable area for earthquake disasters, followed by San Francisco Bay Area, US and Osaka, Japan. Seismologists also predict that Tokyo metropolitan region may have at least one near-field earthquake with a probability of 70% for the next 30 years. Given this prediction, Japanese Government took it seriously to conduct damage estimations and revealed that, as the worst case scenario, if a7.3 magnitude earthquake under heavy winds as shown in the fig. 1, it would kill a total of 11,000 people and a total of direct and indirect losses would amount to 112,000,000,000,000 yen(1,300,000,000,000, 1=85yen) . In addition to mortality and financial losses, a total of 25 million people would be severely impacted by this earthquake in four prefectures. If this earthquake occurs, 300,000 elevators will be stopped suddenly, and 12,500 persons would be confined in them for a long time. Seven million people will come to use over 20,000 public shelters spread over the impacted area. Over one millions temporary housing units should be built to accommodate 4.6 million people who lost their dwellings. 2.5 million people will relocate to outside of the damaged area. In short, an unprecedented scale of earthquake disaster is expected and we must prepare for it. Even though disaster mitigation is undoubtedly the best solution, it is more realistic that the expected earthquake would hit before we complete this business. In other words, we must take into account another solution to make the people and the assets in this region more resilient for the Tokyo metropolitan earthquake. This is the question we have been tackling with for the last four years. To increase societal resilience for Tokyo metropolitan earthquake, we adopted a holistic approach to integrate both emergency response and long-term recovery. There are three goals for long-term recovery, which consists of Physical recovery, Economic

Scientific aspects of the Tohoku earthquake and Fukushima nuclear accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koketsu, Kazuki

2016-04-01

We investigated the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, the accident of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, and assessments conducted beforehand for earthquake and tsunami potential in the Pacific offshore region of the Tohoku District. The results of our investigation show that all the assessments failed to foresee the earthquake and its related tsunami, which was the main cause of the accident. Therefore, the disaster caused by the earthquake, and the accident were scientifically unforeseeable at the time. However, for a zone neighboring the reactors, a 2008 assessment showed tsunamis higher than the plant height. As a lesson learned from the accident, companies operating nuclear power plants should be prepared using even such assessment results for neighboring zones.

Psychosocial determinants of relocation in survivors of the 1999 earthquake in Turkey.

PubMed

Salcoğlu, Ebru; Başoğlu, Metin; Livanou, Maria

2008-01-01

Large-scale earthquakes in urban areas displace many people from their homes. This study examined the role of conditioned fears in determining survivors' tendency to live in shelters after the 1999 earthquake in Turkey. A total of 1655 survivors living in prefabricated housing compounds or residential units in the epicenter zone were screened using a reliable and valid instrument. Among participants whose houses were rendered uninhabitable during the earthquake 87.7% relocated to shelters, whereas others remained in the community by moving to a new house. In contrast, 38.7% of the participants whose houses were still inhabitable after the earthquake lived in the shelters. Relocation was predicted by behavioral avoidance, material losses, and loss of relatives. These findings suggested that a multitude of factors played a role in survivors' displacement from their houses and the elevated rates of mental health problems could constitute a cause rather than an effect of relocation.

The 1964 Great Alaska Earthquake and tsunamis: a modern perspective and enduring legacies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brocher, Thomas M.; Filson, John R.; Fuis, Gary S.; Haeussler, Peter J.; Holzer, Thomas L.; Plafker, George; Blair, J. Luke

2014-01-01

The magnitude 9.2 Great Alaska Earthquake that struck south-central Alaska at 5:36 p.m. on Friday, March 27, 1964, is the largest recorded earthquake in U.S. history and the second-largest earthquake recorded with modern instruments. The earthquake was felt throughout most of mainland Alaska, as far west as Dutch Harbor in the Aleutian Islands some 480 miles away, and at Seattle, Washington, more than 1,200 miles to the southeast of the fault rupture, where the Space Needle swayed perceptibly. The earthquake caused rivers, lakes, and other waterways to slosh as far away as the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. Water-level recorders in 47 states—the entire Nation except for Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island— registered the earthquake. It was so large that it caused the entire Earth to ring like a bell: vibrations that were among the first of their kind ever recorded by modern instruments. The Great Alaska Earthquake spawned thousands of lesser aftershocks and hundreds of damaging landslides, submarine slumps, and other ground failures. Alaska’s largest city, Anchorage, located west of the fault rupture, sustained heavy property damage. Tsunamis produced by the earthquake resulted in deaths and damage as far away as Oregon and California. Altogether the earthquake and subsequent tsunamis caused 129 fatalities and an estimated $2.3 billion in property losses (in 2013 dollars). Most of the population of Alaska and its major transportation routes, ports, and infrastructure lie near the eastern segment of the Aleutian Trench that ruptured in the 1964 earthquake. Although the Great Alaska Earthquake was tragic because of the loss of life and property, it provided a wealth of data about subductionzone earthquakes and the hazards they pose. The leap in scientific understanding that followed the 1964 earthquake has led to major breakthroughs in earth science research worldwide over the past half century. This fact sheet commemorates Great Alaska Earthquake and

Updated earthquake catalogue for seismic hazard analysis in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Sarfraz; Waseem, Muhammad; Khan, Muhammad Asif; Ahmed, Waqas

2018-03-01

A reliable and homogenized earthquake catalogue is essential for seismic hazard assessment in any area. This article describes the compilation and processing of an updated earthquake catalogue for Pakistan. The earthquake catalogue compiled in this study for the region (quadrangle bounded by the geographical limits 40-83° N and 20-40° E) includes 36,563 earthquake events, which are reported as 4.0-8.3 moment magnitude (M W) and span from 25 AD to 2016. Relationships are developed between the moment magnitude and body, and surface wave magnitude scales to unify the catalogue in terms of magnitude M W. The catalogue includes earthquakes from Pakistan and neighbouring countries to minimize the effects of geopolitical boundaries in seismic hazard assessment studies. Earthquakes reported by local and international agencies as well as individual catalogues are included. The proposed catalogue is further used to obtain magnitude of completeness after removal of dependent events by using four different algorithms. Finally, seismicity parameters of the seismic sources are reported, and recommendations are made for seismic hazard assessment studies in Pakistan.

ASSESSMENT OF CROP LOSS FROM OZONE

EPA Science Inventory

Past research has shown that ozone (O3) alone or in combination with sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is responsible for up to 90% of the crop losses in the U.S. caused by air pollution. The National Crop Loss Assessment Network (NCLAN) was set up to determine mor...

Vulnerability assessment of a port and harbor community to earthquake and tsunami hazards: Integrating technical expert and stakeholder input

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Good, James W.; Goodwin, Robert F.

2002-01-01

Research suggests that the Pacific Northwest could experience catastrophic earthquakes and tsunamis in the near future, posing a significant threat to the numerous ports and harbors along the coast. A collaborative, multiagency initiative is underway to increase the resiliency of Pacific Northwest ports and harbors to these hazards, involving Oregon Sea Grant, Washington Sea Grant, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Services Center, and the U.S. Geological Survey Center for Science Policy. One element of this research, planning, and outreach initiative is a natural hazard mitigation and emergency preparedness planning process that combines technical expertise with local stakeholder values and perceptions. This paper summarizes and examines one component of the process, the vulnerability assessment methodology, used in the pilot port and harbor community of Yaquina River, Oregon, as a case study of assessing vulnerability at the local level. In this community, stakeholders were most concerned with potential life loss and other nonstructural vulnerability issues, such as inadequate hazard awareness, communication, and response logistics, rather than structural issues, such as damage to specific buildings or infrastructure.

Geographical Detector-Based Risk Assessment of the Under-Five Mortality in the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake, China

PubMed Central

Hu, Yi; Wang, Jinfeng; Li, Xiaohong; Ren, Dan; Zhu, Jun

2011-01-01

On 12 May, 2008, a devastating earthquake registering 8.0 on the Richter scale occurred in Sichuan Province, China, taking tens of thousands of lives and destroying the homes of millions of people. Many of the deceased were children, particular children less than five years old who were more vulnerable to such a huge disaster than the adult. In order to obtain information specifically relevant to further researches and future preventive measures, potential risk factors associated with earthquake-related child mortality need to be identified. We used four geographical detectors (risk detector, factor detector, ecological detector, and interaction detector) based on spatial variation analysis of some potential factors to assess their effects on the under-five mortality. It was found that three factors are responsible for child mortality: earthquake intensity, collapsed house, and slope. The study, despite some limitations, has important implications for both researchers and policy makers. PMID:21738660

Geographical detector-based risk assessment of the under-five mortality in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, China.

PubMed

Hu, Yi; Wang, Jinfeng; Li, Xiaohong; Ren, Dan; Zhu, Jun

2011-01-01

On 12 May, 2008, a devastating earthquake registering 8.0 on the Richter scale occurred in Sichuan Province, China, taking tens of thousands of lives and destroying the homes of millions of people. Many of the deceased were children, particular children less than five years old who were more vulnerable to such a huge disaster than the adult. In order to obtain information specifically relevant to further researches and future preventive measures, potential risk factors associated with earthquake-related child mortality need to be identified. We used four geographical detectors (risk detector, factor detector, ecological detector, and interaction detector) based on spatial variation analysis of some potential factors to assess their effects on the under-five mortality. It was found that three factors are responsible for child mortality: earthquake intensity, collapsed house, and slope. The study, despite some limitations, has important implications for both researchers and policy makers.

Earthquakes

MedlinePlus

... Search Term(s): Main Content Home Be Informed Earthquakes Earthquakes An earthquake is the sudden, rapid shaking of the earth, ... by the breaking and shifting of underground rock. Earthquakes can cause buildings to collapse and cause heavy ...

Symptoms of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Among Young Children 2 Years After the Great East Japan Earthquake.

PubMed

Fujiwara, Takeo; Yagi, Junko; Homma, Hiroaki; Mashiko, Hirofumi; Nagao, Keizo; Okuyama, Makiko

2017-04-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and its association with each traumatic experience among 5- to 8-year-old children 2 years after the Great East Japan Earthquake. Children ages 5-8 years who were in selected preschool classes on March 11, 2011, in 3 prefectures affected by the earthquake and 1 prefecture that was unaffected, participated in the study (N=280). PTSD symptoms were assessed through questionnaires completed by caregivers and interviews by psychiatrists or psychologists conducted between September 2012 and May 2013 (ie, 1.5-2 years after the earthquake). Among children who experienced the earthquake, 33.8% exhibited PTSD symptoms. Of the different traumatic experiences, experiencing the earthquake and the loss of distant relatives or friends were independently associated with PTSD symptoms; prevalence ratios: 6.88 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.06-23.0) and 2.48 (95% CI: 1.21-5.08), respectively. Approximately 1 in 3 young children in the affected communities exhibited PTSD symptoms, even 2 years after the Great East Japan Earthquake. These data may be useful for preventing PTSD symptoms after natural disasters and suggest the importance of providing appropriate mental health services for children. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:207-215).

Damage and Loss Estimation for Natural Gas Networks: The Case of Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Çaktı, Eser; Hancılar, Ufuk; Şeşetyan, Karin; Bıyıkoǧlu, Hikmet; Şafak, Erdal

2017-04-01

Natural gas networks are one of the major lifeline systems to support human, urban and industrial activities. The continuity of gas supply is critical for almost all functions of modern life. Under natural phenomena such as earthquakes and landslides the damages to the system elements may lead to explosions and fires compromising human life and damaging physical environment. Furthermore, the disruption in the gas supply puts human activities at risk and also results in economical losses. This study is concerned with the performance of one of the largest natural gas distribution systems in the world. Physical damages to Istanbul's natural gas network are estimated under the most recent probabilistic earthquake hazard models available, as well as under simulated ground motions from physics based models. Several vulnerability functions are used in modelling damages to system elements. A first-order assessment of monetary losses to Istanbul's natural gas distribution network is also attempted.

Post-Earthquake Reconstruction — in Context of Housing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarkar, Raju

Comprehensive rescue and relief operations are always launched with no loss of time with active participation of the Army, Governmental agencies, Donor agencies, NGOs, and other Voluntary organizations after each Natural Disaster. There are several natural disasters occurring throughout the world round the year and one of them is Earthquake. More than any other natural catastrophe, an earthquake represents the undoing of our most basic pre-conceptions of the earth as the source of stability or the first distressing factor due to earthquake is the collapse of our dwelling units. Earthquake has affected buildings since people began constructing them. So after each earthquake a reconstruction of housing program is very much essential since housing is referred to as shelter satisfying one of the so-called basic needs next to food and clothing. It is a well-known fact that resettlement (after an earthquake) is often accompanied by the creation of ghettos and ensuing problems in the provision of infrastructure and employment. In fact a housing project after Bhuj earthquake in Gujarat, India, illustrates all the negative aspects of resettlement in the context of reconstruction. The main theme of this paper is to consider few issues associated with post-earthquake reconstruction in context of housing, all of which are significant to communities that have had to rebuild after catastrophe or that will face such a need in the future. Few of them are as follows: (1) Why rebuilding opportunities are time consuming? (2) What are the causes of failure in post-earthquake resettlement? (3) How can holistic planning after an earthquake be planned? (4) What are the criteria to be checked for sustainable building materials? (5) What are the criteria for success in post-earthquake resettlement? (6) How mitigation in post-earthquake housing can be made using appropriate repair, restoration, and strengthening concepts?

Implications for earthquake risk reduction in the United States from the Kocaeli, Turkey, earthquake of August 17, 1999

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2000-01-01

This report documents implications for earthquake risk reduction in the U.S. The magnitude 7.4 earthquake caused 17,127 deaths, 43,953 injuries, and displaced more than 250,000 people from their homes. The report warns that similar disasters are possible in the United States where earthquakes of comparable size strike the heart of American urban areas. Another concern described in the report is the delayed emergency response that was caused by the inadequate seismic monitoring system in Turkey, a problem that contrasts sharply with rapid assessment and response to the September Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan. Additionally, the experience in Turkey suggests that techniques for forecasting earthquakes may be improving.

Coseismic gravitational potential energy changes induced by global earthquakes during 1976 to 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, C.; Chao, B. F.

2017-12-01

We compute the coseismic change in the gravitational potential energy Eg using the spherical-Earth elastic dislocation theory and either the fault model treated as a point source or the finite fault model. The rate of the accumulative coseismic Eg loss produced by historical earthquakes from 1976 to 2016 (about 4, 2000 events) using the GCMT catalogue are estimated to be on the order of -2.1×1020 J/a, or -6.7 TW (1 TW = 1012 watt), amounting to 15% in the total terrestrial heat flow. The energy loss is dominated by the thrust-faulting, especially the mega-thrust earthquakes such as the 2004 Sumatra earthquake (Mw 9.0) and the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Mw 9.1). It's notable that the very deep-focus earthquakes, the 1994 Bolivia earthquake (Mw 8.2) and the 2013 Okhotsk earthquake (Mw 8.3), produced significant overall coseismic Eg gain according to our calculation. The accumulative coseismic Eg is mainly released in the mantle with a decrease tendency, and the core of the Earth also lost the coseismic Eg but with a relatively smaller magnitude. By contrast, the crust of the Earth gains Eg cumulatively because of the coseismic deformations. We further investigate the tectonic signature in these coseismic crustal gravitational potential energy changes in the complex tectonic zone, such as Taiwan region and the northeastern margin of Tibetan Plateau.

Post-Earthquake Assessment of Nevada Bridges Using ShakeMap/ShakeCast

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-01-01

Post-earthquake capacity of Nevada highway bridges is examined through a combination of engineering study and scenario earthquake evaluation. The study was undertaken by the University of Nevada Reno Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering ...

Are Lowered Socioeconomic Circumstances Causally Related to Tooth Loss? A Natural Experiment Involving the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake.

PubMed

Matsuyama, Yusuke; Aida, Jun; Tsuboya, Toru; Hikichi, Hiroyuki; Kondo, Katsunori; Kawachi, Ichiro; Osaka, Ken

2017-07-01

Oral health status is correlated with socioeconomic status. However, the causal nature of the relationship is not established. Here we describe a natural experiment involving deteriorating socioeconomic circumstances following exposure to the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. We investigated the relationship between subjective economic deterioration and housing damage due to the disaster and tooth loss in a cohort of community-dwelling residents (n = 3,039), from whom we obtained information about socioeconomic status and health status in 2010 (i.e., predating the disaster). A follow-up survey was performed in 2013 (postdisaster), and 82.1% of the 4,380 eligible survivors responded. We estimated the impact of subjective economic deterioration and housing damage due to the disaster on tooth loss by fitting an instrumental variable probit model. Subjective economic deterioration and housing damage due to the disaster were significantly associated with 8.1% and 1.7% increases in the probability of tooth loss (probit coefficients were 0.469 (95% confidence interval: 0.065, 0.872) and 0.103 (95% confidence interval: 0.011, 0.196), respectively). In this natural experiment, we confirmed the causal relationship between deteriorating socioeconomic circumstances and tooth loss. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Earthquakes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walter, Edward J.

1977-01-01

Presents an analysis of the causes of earthquakes. Topics discussed include (1) geological and seismological factors that determine the effect of a particular earthquake on a given structure; (2) description of some large earthquakes such as the San Francisco quake; and (3) prediction of earthquakes. (HM)

Statistical aspects and risks of human-caused earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klose, C. D.

2013-12-01

The seismological community invests ample human capital and financial resources to research and predict risks associated with earthquakes. Industries such as the insurance and re-insurance sector are equally interested in using probabilistic risk models developed by the scientific community to transfer risks. These models are used to predict expected losses due to naturally occurring earthquakes. But what about the risks associated with human-caused earthquakes? Such risk models are largely absent from both industry and academic discourse. In countries around the world, informed citizens are becoming increasingly aware and concerned that this economic bias is not sustainable for long-term economic growth, environmental and human security. Ultimately, citizens look to their government officials to hold industry accountable. In the Netherlands, for example, the hydrocarbon industry is held accountable for causing earthquakes near Groningen. In Switzerland, geothermal power plants were shut down or suspended because they caused earthquakes in canton Basel and St. Gallen. The public and the private non-extractive industry needs access to information about earthquake risks in connection with sub/urban geoengineeing activities, including natural gas production through fracking, geothermal energy production, carbon sequestration, mining and water irrigation. This presentation illuminates statistical aspects of human-caused earthquakes with respect to different geologic environments. Statistical findings are based on the first catalog of human-caused earthquakes (in Klose 2013). Findings are discussed which include the odds to die during a medium-size earthquake that is set off by geomechanical pollution. Any kind of geoengineering activity causes this type of pollution and increases the likelihood of triggering nearby faults to rupture.

Comparision of the different probability distributions for earthquake hazard assessment in the North Anatolian Fault Zone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yilmaz, Şeyda, E-mail: seydayilmaz@ktu.edu.tr; Bayrak, Erdem, E-mail: erdmbyrk@gmail.com; Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: bayrak@ktu.edu.tr

In this study we examined and compared the three different probabilistic distribution methods for determining the best suitable model in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. We analyzed a reliable homogeneous earthquake catalogue between a time period 1900-2015 for magnitude M ≥ 6.0 and estimated the probabilistic seismic hazard in the North Anatolian Fault zone (39°-41° N 30°-40° E) using three distribution methods namely Weibull distribution, Frechet distribution and three-parameter Weibull distribution. The distribution parameters suitability was evaluated Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit test. We also compared the estimated cumulative probability and the conditional probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes for different elapsed timemore » using these three distribution methods. We used Easyfit and Matlab software to calculate these distribution parameters and plotted the conditional probability curves. We concluded that the Weibull distribution method was the most suitable than other distribution methods in this region.« less

Multicomponent seismic loss estimation on the North Anatolian Fault Zone (Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

karimzadeh Naghshineh, S.; Askan, A.; Erberik, M. A.; Yakut, A.

2015-12-01

Seismic loss estimation is essential to incorporate seismic risk of structures into an efficient decision-making framework. Evaluation of seismic damage of structures requires a multidisciplinary approach including earthquake source characterization, seismological prediction of earthquake-induced ground motions, prediction of structural responses exposed to ground shaking, and finally estimation of induced damage to structures. As the study region, Erzincan, a city on the eastern part of Turkey is selected which is located in the conjunction of three active strike-slip faults as North Anatolian Fault, North East Anatolian Fault and Ovacik fault. Erzincan city center is in a pull-apart basin underlain by soft sediments that has experienced devastating earthquakes such as the 27 December 1939 (Ms=8.0) and the 13 March 1992 (Mw=6.6) events, resulting in extensive amount of physical as well as economical losses. These losses are attributed to not only the high seismicity of the area but also as a result of the seismic vulnerability of the constructed environment. This study focuses on the seismic damage estimation of Erzincan using both regional seismicity and local building information. For this purpose, first, ground motion records are selected from a set of scenario events simulated with the stochastic finite fault methodology using regional seismicity parameters. Then, existing building stock are classified into specified groups represented with equivalent single-degree-of-freedom systems. Through these models, the inelastic dynamic structural responses are investigated with non-linear time history analysis. To assess the potential seismic damage in the study area, fragility curves for the classified structural types are derived. Finally, the estimated damage is compared with the observed damage during the 1992 Erzincan earthquake. The results are observed to have a reasonable match indicating the efficiency of the ground motion simulations and building analyses.

Evaluating simplified methods for liquefaction assessment for loss estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kongar, Indranil; Rossetto, Tiziana; Giovinazzi, Sonia

2017-06-01

Currently, some catastrophe models used by the insurance industry account for liquefaction by applying a simple factor to shaking-induced losses. The factor is based only on local liquefaction susceptibility and this highlights the need for a more sophisticated approach to incorporating the effects of liquefaction in loss models. This study compares 11 unique models, each based on one of three principal simplified liquefaction assessment methods: liquefaction potential index (LPI) calculated from shear-wave velocity, the HAZUS software method and a method created specifically to make use of USGS remote sensing data. Data from the September 2010 Darfield and February 2011 Christchurch earthquakes in New Zealand are used to compare observed liquefaction occurrences to forecasts from these models using binary classification performance measures. The analysis shows that the best-performing model is the LPI calculated using known shear-wave velocity profiles, which correctly forecasts 78 % of sites where liquefaction occurred and 80 % of sites where liquefaction did not occur, when the threshold is set at 7. However, these data may not always be available to insurers. The next best model is also based on LPI but uses shear-wave velocity profiles simulated from the combination of USGS VS30 data and empirical functions that relate VS30 to average shear-wave velocities at shallower depths. This model correctly forecasts 58 % of sites where liquefaction occurred and 84 % of sites where liquefaction did not occur, when the threshold is set at 4. These scores increase to 78 and 86 %, respectively, when forecasts are based on liquefaction probabilities that are empirically related to the same values of LPI. This model is potentially more useful for insurance since the input data are publicly available. HAZUS models, which are commonly used in studies where no local model is available, perform poorly and incorrectly forecast 87 % of sites where liquefaction occurred, even at

Earthquakes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pakiser, Louis C.

One of a series of general interest publications on science topics, the booklet provides those interested in earthquakes with an introduction to the subject. Following a section presenting an historical look at the world's major earthquakes, the booklet discusses earthquake-prone geographic areas, the nature and workings of earthquakes, earthquake…

Making the Handoff from Earthquake Hazard Assessments to Effective Mitigation Measures (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Applegate, D.

2010-12-01

This year has witnessed a barrage of large earthquakes worldwide with the resulting damages ranging from inconsequential to truly catastrophic. We cannot predict when earthquakes will strike, but we can build communities that are resilient to strong shaking as well as to secondary hazards such as landslides and liquefaction. The contrasting impacts of the magnitude-7 earthquake that struck Haiti in January and the magnitude-8.8 event that struck Chile in April underscore the difference that mitigation and preparedness can make. In both cases, millions of people were exposed to severe shaking, but deaths in Chile were measured in the hundreds rather than the hundreds of thousands that perished in Haiti. Numerous factors contributed to these disparate outcomes, but the most significant is the presence of strong building codes in Chile and their total absence in Haiti. The financial cost of the Chilean earthquake still represents an unacceptably high percentage of that nation’s gross domestic product, a reminder that life safety is the paramount, but not the only, goal of disaster risk reduction measures. For building codes to be effective, both in terms of lives saved and economic cost, they need to reflect the hazard as accurately as possible. As one of four federal agencies that make up the congressionally mandated National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) develops national seismic hazard maps that form the basis for seismic provisions in model building codes through the Federal Emergency Management Agency and private-sector practitioners. This cooperation is central to NEHRP, which both fosters earthquake research and establishes pathways to translate research results into implementation measures. That translation depends on the ability of hazard-focused scientists to interact and develop mutual trust with risk-focused engineers and planners. Strengthening that interaction is an opportunity for the next generation

Chapter A. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Strong Ground Motion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Borcherdt, Roger D.

1994-01-01

Strong ground motion generated by the Loma Prieta, Calif., earthquake (MS~7.1) of October 17, 1989, resulted in at least 63 deaths, more than 3,757 injuries, and damage estimated to exceed $5.9 billion. Strong ground motion severely damaged critical lifelines (freeway overpasses, bridges, and pipelines), caused severe damage to poorly constructed buildings, and induced a significant number of ground failures associated with liquefaction and landsliding. It also caused a significant proportion of the damage and loss of life at distances as far as 100 km from the epicenter. Consequently, understanding the characteristics of the strong ground motion associated with the earthquake is fundamental to understanding the earthquake's devastating impact on society. The papers assembled in this chapter address this problem. Damage to vulnerable structures from the earthquake varied substantially with the distance from the causative fault and the type of underlying geologic deposits. Most of the damage and loss of life occurred in areas underlain by 'soft soil'. Quantifying these effects is important for understanding the tragic concentrations of damage in such areas as Santa Cruz and the Marina and Embarcadero Districts of San Francisco, and the failures of the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge and the Interstate Highway 880 overpass. Most importantly, understanding these effects is a necessary prerequisite for improving mitigation measures for larger earthquakes likely to occur much closer to densely urbanized areas in the San Francisco Bay region. The earthquake generated an especially important data set for understanding variations in the severity of strong ground motion. Instrumental strong-motion recordings were obtained at 131 sites located from about 6 to 175 km from the rupture zone. This set of recordings, the largest yet collected for an event of this size, was obtained from sites on various geologic deposits, including a unique set on 'soft soil' deposits

How citizen seismology is transforming rapid public earthquake information and interactions between seismologists and society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bossu, Rémy; Steed, Robert; Mazet-Roux, Gilles; Roussel, Fréderic; Caroline, Etivant

2015-04-01

Historical earthquakes are only known to us through written recollections and so seismologists have a long experience of interpreting the reports of eyewitnesses, explaining probably why seismology has been a pioneer in crowdsourcing and citizen science. Today, Internet has been transforming this situation; It can be considered as the digital nervous system comprising of digital veins and intertwined sensors that capture the pulse of our planet in near real-time. How can both seismology and public could benefit from this new monitoring system? This paper will present the strategy implemented at Euro-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC) to leverage this new nervous system to detect and diagnose the impact of earthquakes within minutes rather than hours and how it transformed information systems and interactions with the public. We will show how social network monitoring and flashcrowds (massive website traffic increases on EMSC website) are used to automatically detect felt earthquakes before seismic detections, how damaged areas can me mapped through concomitant loss of Internet sessions (visitors being disconnected) and the benefit of collecting felt reports and geolocated pictures to further constrain rapid impact assessment of global earthquakes. We will also describe how public expectations within tens of seconds of ground shaking are at the basis of improved diversified information tools which integrate this user generated contents. A special attention will be given to LastQuake, the most complex and sophisticated Twitter QuakeBot, smartphone application and browser add-on, which deals with the only earthquakes that matter for the public: the felt and damaging earthquakes. In conclusion we will demonstrate that eyewitnesses are today real time earthquake sensors and active actors of rapid earthquake information.

Application of τc*Pd for identifying damaging earthquakes for earthquake early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, P. L.; Lin, T. L.; Wu, Y. M.

2014-12-01

Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) is an effective approach to mitigate earthquake damage. In this study, we used the seismic record by the Kiban Kyoshin network (KiK-net), because it has dense station coverage and co-located borehole strong-motion seismometers along with the free-surface strong-motion seismometers. We used inland earthquakes with moment magnitude (Mw) from 5.0 to 7.3 between 1998 and 2012. We choose 135 events and 10950 strong ground accelerograms recorded by the 696 strong ground accelerographs. Both the free-surface and the borehole data are used to calculate τc and Pd, respectively. The results show that τc*Pd has a good correlation with PGV and is a robust parameter for assessing the potential of damaging earthquake. We propose the value of τc*Pd determined from seconds after the arrival of P wave could be a threshold for the on-site type of EEW.

Victims' time discounting 2.5 years after the Wenchuan earthquake: an ERP study.

PubMed

Li, Jin-Zhen; Gui, Dan-Yang; Feng, Chun-Liang; Wang, Wen-Zhong; Du, Bo-Qi; Gan, Tian; Luo, Yue-Jia

2012-01-01

Time discounting refers to the fact that the subjective value of a reward decreases as the delay until its occurrence increases. The present study investigated how time discounting has been affected in survivors of the magnitude-8.0 Wenchuan earthquake that occurred in China in 2008. Nineteen earthquake survivors and 22 controls, all school teachers, participated in the study. Event-related brain potentials (ERPs) for time discounting tasks involving gains and losses were acquired in both the victims and controls. The behavioral data replicated our previous findings that delayed gains were discounted more steeply after a disaster. ERP results revealed that the P200 and P300 amplitudes were increased in earthquake survivors. There was a significant group (earthquake vs. non-earthquake) × task (gain vs. loss) interaction for the N300 amplitude, with a marginally significantly reduced N300 for gain tasks in the experimental group, which may suggest a deficiency in inhibitory control for gains among victims. The results suggest that post-disaster decisions might involve more emotional (System 1) and less rational thinking (System 2) in terms of a dual-process model of decision making. The implications for post-disaster intervention and management are also discussed.

The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989: Performance of the Built Environment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coordinated by Holzer, Thomas L.

1998-01-01

Professional Paper 1552 focuses on the response of buildings, lifelines, highway systems, and earth structures to the earthquake. Losses to these systems totaled approximated $5.9 billion. The earthquake displaced many residents from their homes and severely disrupted transportation systems. Some significant findings were: * Approximately 16,000 housing units were uninhabitable after the earthquake including 13,000 in the San Francisco Bay region. Another 30,000-35,000 units were moderately damaged in the earthquake. Renters and low-income residents were particularly hard hit. * Failure of highway systems was the single largest cause of loss of life during the earthquake. Forty-two of the 63 earthquake fatalities died when the Cypress Viaduct in Oakland collapsed. The cost to repair and replace highways damaged by the earthquake was $2 billion, about half of which was to replace the Cypress Viaduct. * Major bridge failures were the result of antiquated designs and inadequate anticipation of seismic loading. * Twenty one kilometers (13 mi) of gas-distribution lines had to be replaced in several communities and more than 1,200 leaks and breaks in water mains and service connections had to be excavated and repaired. At least 5 electrical substations were badly damaged, overwhelming the designed redundancy of the electrical system. * Instruments in 28 buildings recorded their response to earthquake shaking that provided opportunities to understand how different types of buildings responded, the importance of site amplification, and how buildings interact with their foundation when shaken (soil structure interaction).

Faith after an Earthquake: A Longitudinal Study of Religion and Perceived Health before and after the 2011 Christchurch New Zealand Earthquake

PubMed Central

Sibley, Chris G.; Bulbulia, Joseph

2012-01-01

On 22 February 2011, Christchurch New Zealand (population 367,700) experienced a devastating earthquake, causing extensive damage and killing one hundred and eighty-five people. The earthquake and aftershocks occurred between the 2009 and 2011 waves of a longitudinal probability sample conducted in New Zealand, enabling us to examine how a natural disaster of this magnitude affected deeply held commitments and global ratings of personal health, depending on earthquake exposure. We first investigated whether the earthquake-affected were more likely to believe in God. Consistent with the Religious Comfort Hypothesis, religious faith increased among the earthquake-affected, despite an overall decline in religious faith elsewhere. This result offers the first population-level demonstration that secular people turn to religion at times of natural crisis. We then examined whether religious affiliation was associated with differences in subjective ratings of personal health. We found no evidence for superior buffering from having religious faith. Among those affected by the earthquake, however, a loss of faith was associated with significant subjective health declines. Those who lost faith elsewhere in the country did not experience similar health declines. Our findings suggest that religious conversion after a natural disaster is unlikely to improve subjective well-being, yet upholding faith might be an important step on the road to recovery. PMID:23227147

Education for Earthquake Disaster Prevention in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oki, S.; Tsuji, H.; Koketsu, K.; Yazaki, Y.

2008-12-01

Japan frequently suffers from all types of disasters such as earthquakes, typhoons, floods, volcanic eruptions, and landslides. In the first half of this year, we already had three big earthquakes and heavy rainfall, which killed more than 30 people. This is not just for Japan but Asia is the most disaster-afflicted region in the world, accounting for about 90% of all those affected by disasters, and more than 50% of the total fatalities and economic losses. One of the most essential ways to reduce the damage of natural disasters is to educate the general public to let them understand what is going on during those desasters. This leads individual to make the sound decision on what to do to prevent or reduce the damage. The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), therefore, offered for public subscription to choose several model areas to adopt scientific education to the local elementary schools, and ERI, the Earthquake Research Institute, is qualified to develop education for earthquake disaster prevention in the Tokyo metropolitan area. The tectonic setting of this area is very complicated; there are the Pacific and Philippine Sea plates subducting beneath the North America and the Eurasia plates. The subduction of the Philippine Sea plate causes mega-thrust earthquakes such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (M 8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M 7.9) which had 105,000 fatalities. A magnitude 7 or greater earthquake beneath this area is recently evaluated to occur with a probability of 70 % in 30 years. This is of immediate concern for the devastating loss of life and property because the Tokyo urban region now has a population of 42 million and is the center of approximately 40 % of the nation's activities, which may cause great global economic repercussion. To better understand earthquakes in this region, "Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Tokyo Metropolitan Area" has been conducted mainly by ERI. It is a 4-year

Preliminary Results of Earthquake-Induced Building Damage Detection with Object-Based Image Classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabuncu, A.; Uca Avci, Z. D.; Sunar, F.

2016-06-01

Earthquakes are the most destructive natural disasters, which result in massive loss of life, infrastructure damages and financial losses. Earthquake-induced building damage detection is a very important step after earthquakes since earthquake-induced building damage is one of the most critical threats to cities and countries in terms of the area of damage, rate of collapsed buildings, the damage grade near the epicenters and also building damage types for all constructions. Van-Ercis (Turkey) earthquake (Mw= 7.1) was occurred on October 23th, 2011; at 10:41 UTC (13:41 local time) centered at 38.75 N 43.36 E that places the epicenter about 30 kilometers northern part of the city of Van. It is recorded that, 604 people died and approximately 4000 buildings collapsed or seriously damaged by the earthquake. In this study, high-resolution satellite images of Van-Ercis, acquired by Quickbird-2 (Digital Globe Inc.) after the earthquake, were used to detect the debris areas using an object-based image classification. Two different land surfaces, having homogeneous and heterogeneous land covers, were selected as case study areas. As a first step of the object-based image processing, segmentation was applied with a convenient scale parameter and homogeneity criterion parameters. As a next step, condition based classification was used. In the final step of this preliminary study, outputs were compared with streetview/ortophotos for the verification and evaluation of the classification accuracy.

The HayWired earthquake scenario—Engineering implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

2018-04-18

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Engineering Implications is the second volume of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013, which describes the HayWired scenario, developed by USGS and its partners. The scenario is a hypothetical yet scientifically realistic earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after a magnitude-7 earthquake (mainshock) on the Hayward Fault and its aftershocks.Analyses in this volume suggest that (1) 800 deaths and 16,000 nonfatal injuries result from shaking alone, plus property and direct business interruption losses of more than $82 billion from shaking, liquefaction, and landslides; (2) the building code is designed to protect lives, but even if all buildings in the region complied with current building codes, 0.4 percent could collapse, 5 percent could be unsafe to occupy, and 19 percent could have restricted use; (3) people expect, prefer, and would be willing to pay for greater resilience of buildings; (4) more than 22,000 people could require extrication from stalled elevators, and more than 2,400 people could require rescue from collapsed buildings; (5) the average east-bay resident could lose water service for 6 weeks, some for as long as 6 months; (6) older steel-frame high-rise office buildings and new reinforced-concrete residential buildings in downtown San Francisco and Oakland could be unusable for as long as 10 months; (7) about 450 large fires could result in a loss of residential and commercial building floor area equivalent to more than 52,000 single-family homes and cause property (building and content) losses approaching $30 billion; and (8) combining earthquake early warning (ShakeAlert) with “drop, cover, and hold on” actions could prevent as many as 1,500 nonfatal injuries out of 18,000 total estimated nonfatal injuries from shaking and liquefaction hazards.

The Lushan earthquake and the giant panda: impacts and conservation.

PubMed

Zhang, Zejun; Yuan, Shibin; Qi, Dunwu; Zhang, Mingchun

2014-06-01

Earthquakes not only result in a great loss of human life and property, but also have profound effects on the Earth's biodiversity. The Lushan earthquake occurred on 20 Apr 2013, with a magnitude of 7.0 and an intensity of 9.0 degrees. A distance of 17.0 km from its epicenter to the nearest distribution site of giant pandas recorded in the Third National Survey was determined. Making use of research on the Wenchuan earthquake (with a magnitude of 8.0), which occurred approximately 5 years ago, we briefly analyze the impacts of the Lushan earthquake on giant pandas and their habitat. An earthquake may interrupt ongoing behaviors of giant pandas and may also cause injury or death. In addition, an earthquake can damage conservation facilities for pandas, and result in further habitat fragmentation and degradation. However, from a historical point of view, the impacts of human activities on giant pandas and their habitat may, in fact, far outweigh those of natural disasters such as earthquakes. Measures taken to promote habitat restoration and conservation network reconstruction in earthquake-affected areas should be based on requirements of giant pandas, not those of humans. © 2013 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Multi-hazards risk assessment at different levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frolova, N.; Larionov, V.; Bonnin, J.

2012-04-01

Natural and technological disasters are becoming more frequent and devastating. Social and economic losses due to those events increase annually, which is definitely in relation with evolution of society. Natural hazards identification and analysis, as well natural risk assessment taking into account secondary technological accidents are the first steps in prevention strategy aimed at saving lives and protecting property against future events. The paper addresses methodological issues of natural and technological integrated risk assessment and mapping at different levels [1, 2]. At the country level the most hazardous natural processes, which may results in fatalities, injuries and economic loss in the Russian Federation, are considered. They are earthquakes, landslides, mud flows, floods, storms, avalanches. The special GIS environment for the country territory was developed which includes information about hazards' level and reoccurrence, an impact databases for the last 20 years, as well as models for estimating damage and casualties caused by these hazards. Federal maps of seismic individual and collective risk, as well as multi-hazards natural risk maps are presented. The examples of regional seismic risk assessment taking into account secondary accidents at fire, explosion and chemical hazardous facilities and regional integrated risk assessment are given for the earthquake prone areas of the Russian Federation. The paper also gives examples of loss computations due to scenario earthquakes taking into account accidents trigged by strong events at critical facilities: fire and chemical hazardous facilities, including oil pipe lines routes located in the earthquake prone areas. The estimations of individual seismic risk obtained are used by EMERCOM of the Russian Federation, as well as by other federal and local authorities, for planning and implementing preventive measures, aimed at saving lives and protecting property against future disastrous events. The

A review on remotely sensed land surface temperature anomaly as an earthquake precursor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhardwaj, Anshuman; Singh, Shaktiman; Sam, Lydia; Joshi, P. K.; Bhardwaj, Akanksha; Martín-Torres, F. Javier; Kumar, Rajesh

2017-12-01

The low predictability of earthquakes and the high uncertainty associated with their forecasts make earthquakes one of the worst natural calamities, capable of causing instant loss of life and property. Here, we discuss the studies reporting the observed anomalies in the satellite-derived Land Surface Temperature (LST) before an earthquake. We compile the conclusions of these studies and evaluate the use of remotely sensed LST anomalies as precursors of earthquakes. The arrival times and the amplitudes of the anomalies vary widely, thus making it difficult to consider them as universal markers to issue earthquake warnings. Based on the randomness in the observations of these precursors, we support employing a global-scale monitoring system to detect statistically robust anomalous geophysical signals prior to earthquakes before considering them as definite precursors.

Assessing earthquake early warning using sparse networks in developing countries: Case study of the Kyrgyz Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parolai, Stefano; Boxberger, Tobias; Pilz, Marco; Fleming, Kevin; Haas, Michael; Pittore, Massimiliano; Petrovic, Bojana; Moldobekov, Bolot; Zubovich, Alexander; Lauterjung, Joern

2017-09-01

The first real-time digital strong-motion network in Central Asia has been installed in the Kyrgyz Republic since 2014. Although this network consists of only 19 strong-motion stations, they are located in near-optimal locations for earthquake early warning and rapid response purposes. In fact, it is expected that this network, which utilizes the GFZ-Sentry software, allowing decentralized event assessment calculations, not only will provide useful strong motion data useful for improving future seismic hazard and risk assessment, but will serve as the backbone for regional and on-site earthquake early warning operations. Based on the location of these stations, and travel-time estimates for P- and S-waves, we have determined potential lead times for several major urban areas in Kyrgyzstan (i.e., Bishkek, Osh, and Karakol) and Kazakhstan (Almaty), where we find the implementation of an efficient earthquake early warning system would provide lead times outside the blind zone ranging from several seconds up to several tens of seconds. This was confirmed by the simulation of the possible shaking (and intensity) that would arise considering a series of scenarios based on historical and expected events, and how they affect the major urban centres. Such lead times would allow the instigation of automatic mitigation procedures, while the system as a whole would support prompt and efficient actions to be undertaken over large areas.

Assessing the Applicability of Earthquake Early Warning in Nicaragua.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massin, F.; Clinton, J. F.; Behr, Y.; Strauch, W.; Cauzzi, C.; Boese, M.; Talavera, E.; Tenorio, V.; Ramirez, J.

2016-12-01

Nicaragua, like much of Central America, suffers from frequent damaging earthquakes (6 M7+ earthquakes occurred in the last 100 years). Thrust events occur at the Middle America Trench where the Cocos plate subducts by 72-81 mm/yr eastward beneath the Caribbean plate. Shallow crustal events occur on-shore, with potential extensive damage as demonstrated in 1972 by a M6.2 earthquake, 5 km beneath Managua. This seismotectonic setting is challenging for Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) because the target events derive from both the offshore seismicity, with potentially large lead times but uncertain locations, and shallow seismicity in close proximity to densely urbanized areas, where an early warning would be short if available at all. Nevertheless, EEW could reduce Nicaragua's earthquake exposure. The Swiss Development and Cooperation Fund and the Nicaraguan Government have funded a collaboration between the Swiss Seismological Service (SED) at ETH Zurich and the Nicaraguan Geosciences Institute (INETER) in Managua to investigate and build a prototype EEW system for Nicaragua and the wider region. In this contribution, we present the potential of EEW to effectively alert Nicaragua and the neighbouring regions. We model alert time delays using all available seismic stations (existing and planned) in the region, as well as communication and processing delays (observed and optimal) to estimate current and potential performances of EEW alerts. Theoretical results are verified with the output from the Virtual Seismologist in SeisComP3 (VS(SC3)). VS(SC3) is implemented in the INETER SeisComP3 system for real-time operation and as an offline instance, that simulates real-time operation, to record processing delays of playback events. We compare our results with similar studies for Europe, California and New Zealand. We further highlight current capabilities and challenges for providing EEW alerts in Nicaragua. We also discuss how combining different algorithms, like e.g. VS

Izmit, Turkey 1999 Earthquake Interferogram

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2001-01-01

This image is an interferogram that was created using pairs of images taken by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). The images, acquired at two different times, have been combined to measure surface deformation or changes that may have occurred during the time between data acquisition. The images were collected by the European Space Agency's Remote Sensing satellite (ERS-2) on 13 August 1999 and 17 September 1999 and were combined to produce these image maps of the apparent surface deformation, or changes, during and after the 17 August 1999 Izmit, Turkey earthquake. This magnitude 7.6 earthquake was the largest in 60 years in Turkey and caused extensive damage and loss of life. Each of the color contours of the interferogram represents 28 mm (1.1 inches) of motion towards the satellite, or about 70 mm (2.8 inches) of horizontal motion. White areas are outside the SAR image or water of seas and lakes. The North Anatolian Fault that broke during the Izmit earthquake moved more than 2.5 meters (8.1 feet) to produce the pattern measured by the interferogram. Thin red lines show the locations of fault breaks mapped on the surface. The SAR interferogram shows that the deformation and fault slip extended west of the surface faults, underneath the Gulf of Izmit. Thick black lines mark the fault rupture inferred from the SAR data. Scientists are using the SAR interferometry along with other data collected on the ground to estimate the pattern of slip that occurred during the Izmit earthquake. This then used to improve computer models that predict how this deformation transferred stress to other faults and to the continuation of the North Anatolian Fault, which extends to the west past the large city of Istanbul. These models show that the Izmit earthquake further increased the already high probability of a major earthquake near Istanbul.

Journal of the Chinese Institute of Engineers. Special Issue: Commemoration of Chi-Chi Earthquake (II)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

2002-09-01

Contents include the following: Deep Electromagnetic Images of Seismogenic Zone of the Chi-Chi (Taiwan) Earthquake; New Techniques for Stress-Forecasting Earthquakes; Aspects of Characteristics of Near-Fault Ground Motions of the 1999 Chi-Chi (Taiwan) Earthquake; Liquefaction Damage and Related Remediation in Wufeng after the Chi-Chi Earthquake; Fines Content Effects on Liquefaction Potential Evaluation for Sites Liquefied during Chi-Chi Earthquake 1999; Damage Investigation and Liquefaction Potential Analysis of Gravelly Soil; Dynamic Characteristics of Soils in Yuan-Lin Liquefaction Area; A Preliminary Study of Earthquake Building Damage and Life Loss Due to the Chi-Chi Earthquake; Statistical Analyses of Relation between Mortality and Building Type in the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake; Development of an After Earthquake Disaster Shelter Evaluation Model; Posttraumatic Stress Reactions in Children and Adolescents One Year after the 1999 Taiwan Chi-Chi Earthquake; Changes or Not is the Question: the Meaning of Posttraumatic Stress Reactions One Year after the Taiwan Chi-Chi Earthquake.

An interdisciplinary approach for earthquake modelling and forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, P.; Zhuang, J.; Hattori, K.; Ogata, Y.

2016-12-01

Earthquake is one of the most serious disasters, which may cause heavy casualties and economic losses. Especially in the past two decades, huge/mega earthquakes have hit many countries. Effective earthquake forecasting (including time, location, and magnitude) becomes extremely important and urgent. To date, various heuristically derived algorithms have been developed for forecasting earthquakes. Generally, they can be classified into two types: catalog-based approaches and non-catalog-based approaches. Thanks to the rapid development of statistical seismology in the past 30 years, now we are able to evaluate the performances of these earthquake forecast approaches quantitatively. Although a certain amount of precursory information is available in both earthquake catalogs and non-catalog observations, the earthquake forecast is still far from satisfactory. In most case, the precursory phenomena were studied individually. An earthquake model that combines self-exciting and mutually exciting elements was developed by Ogata and Utsu from the Hawkes process. The core idea of this combined model is that the status of the event at present is controlled by the event itself (self-exciting) and all the external factors (mutually exciting) in the past. In essence, the conditional intensity function is a time-varying Poisson process with rate λ(t), which is composed of the background rate, the self-exciting term (the information from past seismic events), and the external excitation term (the information from past non-seismic observations). This model shows us a way to integrate the catalog-based forecast and non-catalog-based forecast. Against this background, we are trying to develop a new earthquake forecast model which combines catalog-based and non-catalog-based approaches.

Application of τc*Pd in earthquake early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Po-Lun; Lin, Ting-Li; Wu, Yih-Min

2015-03-01

Rapid assessment of damage potential and size of an earthquake at the station is highly demanded for onsite earthquake early warning. We study the application of τc*Pd for its estimation on the earthquake size using 123 events recorded by the borehole stations of KiK-net in Japan. The new type of earthquake size determined by τc*Pd is more related to the damage potential. We find that τc*Pd provides another parameter to measure the size of earthquake and the threshold to warn strong ground motion.

Crowd-Sourced Global Earthquake Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Owen, S. E.; Iannucci, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.

2014-12-01

Although earthquake early warning (EEW) has shown great promise for reducing loss of life and property, it has only been implemented in a few regions due, in part, to the prohibitive cost of building the required dense seismic and geodetic networks. However, many cars and consumer smartphones, tablets, laptops, and similar devices contain low-cost versions of the same sensors used for earthquake monitoring. If a workable EEW system could be implemented based on either crowd-sourced observations from consumer devices or very inexpensive networks of instruments built from consumer-quality sensors, EEW coverage could potentially be expanded worldwide. Controlled tests of several accelerometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers typically found in consumer devices show that, while they are significantly noisier than scientific-grade instruments, they are still accurate enough to capture displacements from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes. The accuracy of these sensors varies greatly depending on the type of data collected. Raw coarse acquisition (C/A) code GPS data are relatively noisy. These observations have a surface displacement detection threshold approaching ~1 m and would thus only be useful in large Mw 8+ earthquakes. However, incorporating either satellite-based differential corrections or using a Kalman filter to combine the raw GNSS data with low-cost acceleration data (such as from a smartphone) decreases the noise dramatically. These approaches allow detection thresholds as low as 5 cm, potentially enabling accurate warnings for earthquakes as small as Mw 6.5. Simulated performance tests show that, with data contributed from only a very small fraction of the population, a crowd-sourced EEW system would be capable of warning San Francisco and San Jose of a Mw 7 rupture on California's Hayward fault and could have accurately issued both earthquake and tsunami warnings for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.

Reflections from the interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sargeant, S.

2012-04-01

Scientific understanding of earthquakes and their attendant hazards is vital for the development of effective earthquake risk reduction strategies. Within the global disaster reduction policy framework (the Hyogo Framework for Action, overseen by the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), the anticipated role of science and scientists is clear, with respect to risk assessment, loss estimation, space-based observation, early warning and forecasting. The importance of information sharing and cooperation, cross-disciplinary networks and developing technical and institutional capacity for effective disaster management is also highlighted. In practice, the degree to which seismological information is successfully delivered to and applied by individuals, groups or organisations working to manage or reduce the risk from earthquakes is variable. The challenge for scientists is to provide fit-for-purpose information that can be integrated simply into decision-making and risk reduction activities at all levels of governance and at different geographic scales, often by a non-technical audience (i.e. people without any seismological/earthquake engineering training). The interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction (defined here in terms of both the relationship between the science and its application, and the scientist and other risk stakeholders) is complex. This complexity is a function of a range issues that arise relating to communication, multidisciplinary working, politics, organisational practices, inter-organisational collaboration, working practices, sectoral cultures, individual and organisational values, worldviews and expectations. These factors can present significant obstacles to scientific information being incorporated into the decision-making process. The purpose of this paper is to present some personal reflections on the nature of the interface between the worlds of seismological research and risk reduction, and the

Do I Really Sound Like That? Communicating Earthquake Science Following Significant Earthquakes at the NEIC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, G. P.; Earle, P. S.; Benz, H.; Wald, D. J.; Yeck, W. L.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey's National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) responds to about 160 magnitude 6.0 and larger earthquakes every year and is regularly inundated with information requests following earthquakes that cause significant impact. These requests often start within minutes after the shaking occurs and come from a wide user base including the general public, media, emergency managers, and government officials. Over the past several years, the NEIC's earthquake response has evolved its communications strategy to meet the changing needs of users and the evolving media landscape. The NEIC produces a cascade of products starting with basic hypocentral parameters and culminating with estimates of fatalities and economic loss. We speed the delivery of content by prepositioning and automatically generating products such as, aftershock plots, regional tectonic summaries, maps of historical seismicity, and event summary posters. Our goal is to have information immediately available so we can quickly address the response needs of a particular event or sequence. This information is distributed to hundreds of thousands of users through social media, email alerts, programmatic data feeds, and webpages. Many of our products are included in event summary posters that can be downloaded and printed for local display. After significant earthquakes, keeping up with direct inquiries and interview requests from TV, radio, and print reports is always challenging. The NEIC works with the USGS Office of Communications and the USGS Science Information Services to organize and respond to these requests. Written executive summaries reports are produced and distributed to USGS personnel and collaborators throughout the country. These reports are updated during the response to keep our message consistent and information up to date. This presentation will focus on communications during NEIC's rapid earthquake response but will also touch on the broader USGS traditional and

Earthquake-induced gravitational potential energy change at convergent plate boundary near Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, C.; Hsu, S.

2004-12-01

The coseismic displacement induced by earthquakes will change the gravitational potential energy (GPE). Okamoto and Tanimoto (2002) have shown that the gain of {Δ GPE} corresponds to the compressional stress regime while the loss of {Δ GPE} corresponds to the extensional stress regime. Here we show an example at a convergent plate boundary near Taiwan. The Philippine Sea Plate is converging against the Eurasian Plate with a velocity of 7-8 cm/yr near Taiwan, which has caused the active Taiwan orogeny and induced abundant earthquakes. We have examined the corresponding change of gravitational potential energy by using 757 earthquakes from the earthquake catalogue of the Broadband Array in Taiwan for Seismology (BATS) from July 1995 to December 2003. The results show that the variation of the crustal Δ GPE strongly correlates with the different stage of the orogenesis. Except for the western Okinawa Trough and the southern Taiwan, most of the Taiwan convergent region exhibits a gain of crustal Δ GPE. In contrast, the lithospheric Δ GPE in the Taiwan region exhibits a reverse pattern. For the whole Taiwan region, the earthquake-induced crustal Δ GPE and the lithospheric Δ GPE during the observation period are 1.03×1017 joules and -1.15×1017 joules, respectively. The average rate of the whole Δ GPE in the Taiwan region is very intense and equal to -2.07×1010 watts, corresponding to about one percent of the global Δ GPE loss induced by earthquakes.

Posttraumatic stress disorder: a serious post-earthquake complication.

PubMed

Farooqui, Mudassir; Quadri, Syed A; Suriya, Sajid S; Khan, Muhammad Adnan; Ovais, Muhammad; Sohail, Zohaib; Shoaib, Samra; Tohid, Hassaan; Hassan, Muhammad

2017-01-01

Earthquakes are unpredictable and devastating natural disasters. They can cause massive destruction and loss of life and survivors may suffer psychological symptoms of severe intensity. Our goal in this article is to review studies published in the last 20 years to compile what is known about posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) occurring after earthquakes. The review also describes other psychiatric complications that can be associated with earthquakes, to provide readers with better overall understanding, and discusses several sociodemographic factors that can be associated with post-earthquake PTSD. A search for literature was conducted on major databases such as MEDLINE, PubMed, EMBASE, and PsycINFO and in neurology and psychiatry journals, and many other medical journals. Terms used for electronic searches included, but were not limited to, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), posttraumatic symptoms, anxiety, depression, major depressive disorder, earthquake, and natural disaster. The relevant information was then utilized to determine the relationships between earthquakes and posttraumatic stress symptoms. It was found that PTSD is the most commonly occurring mental health condition among earthquake survivors. Major depressive disorder, generalized anxiety disorder, obsessive compulsive disorder, social phobia, and specific phobias were also listed. The PTSD prevalence rate varied widely. It was dependent on multiple risk factors in target populations and also on the interval of time that had elapsed between the exposure to the deadly incident and measurement. Females seemed to be the most widely-affected group, while elderly people and young children exhibit considerable psychosocial impact.

A post-Tohoku earthquake review of earthquake probabilities in the Southern Kanto District, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somerville, Paul G.

2014-12-01

The 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake generated an aftershock sequence that affected a large part of northern Honshu, and has given rise to widely divergent forecasts of changes in earthquake occurrence probabilities in northern Honshu. The objective of this review is to assess these forecasts as they relate to potential changes in the occurrence probabilities of damaging earthquakes in the Kanto Region. It is generally agreed that the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake increased the stress on faults in the southern Kanto district. Toda and Stein (Geophys Res Lett 686, 40: doi:10.1002, 2013) further conclude that the probability of earthquakes in the Kanto Corridor has increased by a factor of 2.5 for the time period 11 March 2013 to 10 March 2018 in the Kanto Corridor. Estimates of earthquake probabilities in a wider region of the Southern Kanto District by Nanjo et al. (Geophys J Int, doi:10.1093, 2013) indicate that any increase in the probability of earthquakes is insignificant in this larger region. Uchida et al. (Earth Planet Sci Lett 374: 81-91, 2013) conclude that the Philippine Sea plate the extends well north of the northern margin of Tokyo Bay, inconsistent with the Kanto Fragment hypothesis of Toda et al. (Nat Geosci, 1:1-6,2008), which attributes deep earthquakes in this region, which they term the Kanto Corridor, to a broken fragment of the Pacific plate. The results of Uchida and Matsuzawa (J Geophys Res 115:B07309, 2013)support the conclusion that fault creep in southern Kanto may be slowly relaxing the stress increase caused by the Tohoku earthquake without causing more large earthquakes. Stress transfer calculations indicate a large stress transfer to the Off Boso Segment as a result of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. However, Ozawa et al. (J Geophys Res 117:B07404, 2012) used onshore GPS measurements to infer large post-Tohoku creep on the plate interface in the Off-Boso region, and Uchida and Matsuzawa (ibid.) measured similar large creep off the Boso

Building Damage Assessment after Earthquake Using Post-Event LiDAR Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rastiveis, H.; Eslamizade, F.; Hosseini-Zirdoo, E.

2015-12-01

After an earthquake, damage assessment plays an important role in leading rescue team to help people and decrease the number of mortality. Damage map is a map that demonstrates collapsed buildings with their degree of damage. With this map, finding destructive buildings can be quickly possible. In this paper, we propose an algorithm for automatic damage map generation after an earthquake using post-event LiDAR Data and pre-event vector map. The framework of the proposed approach has four main steps. To find the location of all buildings on LiDAR data, in the first step, LiDAR data and vector map are registered by using a few number of ground control points. Then, building layer, selected from vector map, are mapped on the LiDAR data and all pixels which belong to the buildings are extracted. After that, through a powerful classifier all the extracted pixels are classified into three classes of "debris", "intact building" and "unclassified". Since textural information make better difference between "debris" and "intact building" classes, different textural features are applied during the classification. After that, damage degree for each candidate building is estimated based on the relation between the numbers of pixels labelled as "debris" class to the whole building area. Calculating the damage degree for each candidate building, finally, building damage map is generated. To evaluate the ability proposed method in generating damage map, a data set from Port-au-Prince, Haiti's capital after the 2010 Haiti earthquake was used. In this case, after calculating of all buildings in the test area using the proposed method, the results were compared to the damage degree which estimated through visual interpretation of post-event satellite image. Obtained results were proved the reliability of the proposed method in damage map generation using LiDAR data.

NASA-Produced Maps Help Gauge Italy Earthquake Damage

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-05

A NASA-funded program provided valuable information for responders and groups supporting the recovery efforts for the Aug. 24, 2016, magnitude 6.2 earthquake that struck central Italy. The earthquake caused significant loss of life and property damage in the town of Amatrice. To assist in the disaster response efforts, scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Caltech, both in Pasadena, California, obtained and used radar imagery of the earthquake's hardest-hit region to discriminate areas of damage from that event. The views indicate the extent of damage caused by the earthquake and subsequent aftershocks in and around Amatrice, based on changes to the ground surface detected by radar. The color variations from yellow to red indicate increasingly more significant ground surface change. The damage maps were created from data obtained before and after the earthquake by satellites belonging to the Italian Space Agency (ASI) and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). The radar-derived damage maps compare well with a damage map produced by the European Commission Copernicus Emergency Management Service based upon visual inspection of high-resolution pre-earthquake aerial photographs and post-earthquake satellite optical imagery, and provide broader geographic coverage of the earthquake's impact in the region. The X-band COSMO-SkyMed (CSK) data were provided through a research collaboration with ASI and were acquired on July 3, August 20, and August 28, 2016. The L-band ALOS/PALSAR-2 data were provided by JAXA through its science research program and were acquired on September 9, 2015, January 27, 2016, and August 24, 2016. The radar data were processed by the Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) team at JPL and Caltech. ARIA is a NASA-funded project that is building an automated system for demonstrating the ability to rapidly and reliably provide GPS and satellite data to support the local, national and international hazard monitoring and

A study of earthquake-induced building detection by object oriented classification approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabuncu, Asli; Damla Uca Avci, Zehra; Sunar, Filiz

2017-04-01

Among the natural hazards, earthquakes are the most destructive disasters and cause huge loss of lives, heavily infrastructure damages and great financial losses every year all around the world. According to the statistics about the earthquakes, more than a million earthquakes occur which is equal to two earthquakes per minute in the world. Natural disasters have brought more than 780.000 deaths approximately % 60 of all mortality is due to the earthquakes after 2001. A great earthquake took place at 38.75 N 43.36 E in the eastern part of Turkey in Van Province on On October 23th, 2011. 604 people died and about 4000 buildings seriously damaged and collapsed after this earthquake. In recent years, the use of object oriented classification approach based on different object features, such as spectral, textural, shape and spatial information, has gained importance and became widespread for the classification of high-resolution satellite images and orthophotos. The motivation of this study is to detect the collapsed buildings and debris areas after the earthquake by using very high-resolution satellite images and orthophotos with the object oriented classification and also see how well remote sensing technology was carried out in determining the collapsed buildings. In this study, two different land surfaces were selected as homogenous and heterogeneous case study areas. In the first step of application, multi-resolution segmentation was applied and optimum parameters were selected to obtain the objects in each area after testing different color/shape and compactness/smoothness values. In the next step, two different classification approaches, namely "supervised" and "unsupervised" approaches were applied and their classification performances were compared. Object-based Image Analysis (OBIA) was performed using e-Cognition software.

The 2004 Parkfield, CA Earthquake: A Teachable Moment for Exploring Earthquake Processes, Probability, and Earthquake Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafka, A.; Barnett, M.; Ebel, J.; Bellegarde, H.; Campbell, L.

2004-12-01

The occurrence of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake provided a unique "teachable moment" for students in our science course for teacher education majors. The course uses seismology as a medium for teaching a wide variety of science topics appropriate for future teachers. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake occurred just 15 minutes after our students completed a lab on earthquake processes and earthquake prediction. That lab included a discussion of the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment as a motivation for the exercises they were working on that day. Furthermore, this earthquake was recorded on an AS1 seismograph right in their lab, just minutes after the students left. About an hour after we recorded the earthquake, the students were able to see their own seismogram of the event in the lecture part of the course, which provided an excellent teachable moment for a lecture/discussion on how the occurrence of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake might affect seismologists' ideas about earthquake prediction. The specific lab exercise that the students were working on just before we recorded this earthquake was a "sliding block" experiment that simulates earthquakes in the classroom. The experimental apparatus includes a flat board on top of which are blocks of wood attached to a bungee cord and a string wrapped around a hand crank. Plate motion is modeled by slowly turning the crank, and earthquakes are modeled as events in which the block slips ("blockquakes"). We scaled the earthquake data and the blockquake data (using how much the string moved as a proxy for time) so that we could compare blockquakes and earthquakes. This provided an opportunity to use interevent-time histograms to teach about earthquake processes, probability, and earthquake prediction, and to compare earthquake sequences with blockquake sequences. We were able to show the students, using data obtained directly from their own lab, how global earthquake data fit a Poisson exponential distribution better

a Collaborative Cyberinfrastructure for Earthquake Seismology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bossu, R.; Roussel, F.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Lefebvre, S.; Steed, R.

2013-12-01

One of the challenges in real time seismology is the prediction of earthquake's impact. It is particularly true for moderate earthquake (around magnitude 6) located close to urbanised areas, where the slightest uncertainty in event location, depth, magnitude estimates, and/or misevaluation of propagation characteristics, site effects and buildings vulnerability can dramatically change impact scenario. The Euro-Med Seismological Centre (EMSC) has developed a cyberinfrastructure to collect observations from eyewitnesses in order to provide in-situ constraints on actual damages. This cyberinfrastructure takes benefit of the natural convergence of earthquake's eyewitnesses on EMSC website (www.emsc-csem.org), the second global earthquake information website within tens of seconds of the occurrence of a felt event. It includes classical crowdsourcing tools such as online questionnaires available in 39 languages, and tools to collect geolocated pics. It also comprises information derived from the real time analysis of the traffic on EMSC website, a method named flashsourcing; In case of a felt earthquake, eyewitnesses reach EMSC website within tens of seconds to find out the cause of the shaking they have just been through. By analysing their geographical origin through their IP address, we automatically detect felt earthquakes and in some cases map the damaged areas through the loss of Internet visitors. We recently implemented a Quake Catcher Network (QCN) server in collaboration with Stanford University and the USGS, to collect ground motion records performed by volunteers and are also involved in a project to detect earthquakes from ground motions sensors from smartphones. Strategies have been developed for several social media (Facebook, Twitter...) not only to distribute earthquake information, but also to engage with the Citizens and optimise data collection. A smartphone application is currently under development. We will present an overview of this

Perspectives on earthquake hazards in the New Madrid seismic zone, Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thenhaus, P.C.

1990-01-01

A sequence of three great earthquakes struck the Central United States during the winter of 1811-1812 in the area of New Madrid, Missouri. they are considered to be the greatest earthquakes in the conterminous U.S because they were felt and caused damage at far greater distances than any other earthquakes in U.S history. The large population currently living within the damage area of these earthquakes means that widespread destruction and loss of life is likely if the sequence were repeated. In contrast to California, where the earthquakes are felt frequently, the damaging earthquakes that have occurred in the Easter U.S-in 155 (Cape Ann, Mass.), 1811-12 (New Madrid, Mo.), 1886 (Charleston S.C) ,and 1897 (Giles County, Va.- are generally regarded as only historical phenomena (fig. 1). The social memory of these earthquakes no longer exists. A fundamental problem in the Eastern U.S, therefore, is that the earthquake hazard is not generally considered today in land-use and civic planning. This article offers perspectives on the earthquake hazard of the New Madrid seismic zone through discussions of the geology of the Mississippi Embayment, the historical earthquakes that have occurred there, the earthquake risk, and the "tools" that geoscientists have to study the region. The so-called earthquake hazard is defined  by the characterization of the physical attributes of the geological structures that cause earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, their potential size, and the expected ground motions. the term "earthquake risk," on the other hand, refers to aspects of the expected damage to manmade strctures and to lifelines as a result of the earthquake hazard.  

Emergency mapping and information management during Nepal Earthquake 2015 - Challenges and lesson learned

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, G.; Gurung, D. R.

2016-12-01

A powerful 7.8 magnitude earthquake struck Nepal at 06:11 UTC on 25 April 2015. Several subsequent aftershocks were deadliest earthquake in recent history of Nepal. In total about 9000 people died and 22,300 people were injured, and lives of eight million people, almost one-third of the population of Nepal was effected. The event lead to massive campaigned to gather data and information on damage and loss using remote sensing, field inspection, and community survey. Information on distribution of relief materials is other important domain of information necessary for equitable relief distribution. Pre and post-earthquake high resolution satellite images helped in damage area assessment and mapping. Many national and international agencies became active to generate and fill the information vacuum. The challenges included data access bottleneck due to lack of good IT infrastructure; inconsistent products due to absence of standard mapping guidelines; dissemination challenges due to absence of Standard Operating Protocols and single information gateway. These challenges were negating opportunities offered by improved earth observation data availability, increasing engagement of volunteers for emergency mapping, and centralized emergency coordination practice. This paper highlights critical practical challenges encountered during emergency mapping and information management during the earthquake in Nepal. There is greater need to address such challenges to effectively use technological leverages that recent advancement in space science, IT and mapping domain provides.

Earthquakes

MedlinePlus

An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...

The Wenchuan, China M8.0 Earthquake: A Lesson and Implication for Seismic Hazard Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z.

2008-12-01

The Wenchuan, China M8.0 earthquake caused great damage and huge casualty. 69,197 people were killed, 374,176 people were injured, and 18,341 people are still missing. The estimated direct economic loss is about 126 billion U.S. dollar. The Wenchuan earthquake again demonstrated that earthquake does not kill people, but the built environments and induced hazards, landslides in particular, do. Therefore, it is critical to strengthen the built environments, such buildings and bridges, and to mitigate the induced hazards in order to avoid such disaster. As a part of the so-called North-South Seismic Zone in China, the Wenchuan earthquake occurred along the Longmen Shan thrust belt which forms a boundary between the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Sichuan basin, and there is a long history (~4,000 years) of seismicity in the area. The historical records show that the area experienced high intensity (i.e., greater than IX) in the past several thousand years. In other words, the area is well-known to have high seismic hazard because of its tectonic setting and seismicity. However, only intensity VII (0.1 to 0.15g PGA) has been considered for seismic design for the built environments in the area. This was one of the main reasons that so many building collapses, particularly the school buildings, during the Wenchuan earthquake. It is clear that the seismic design (i.e., the design ground motion or intensity) is not adequate in the Wenchuan earthquake stricken area. A lesson can be learned from the Wenchuan earthquake on the seismic hazard and risk assessment. A lesson can also be learned from this earthquake on seismic hazard mitigation and/or seismic risk reduction.

Earthquake forecast for the Wasatch Front region of the Intermountain West

USGS Publications Warehouse

DuRoss, Christopher B.

2016-04-18

The Working Group on Utah Earthquake Probabilities has assessed the probability of large earthquakes in the Wasatch Front region. There is a 43 percent probability of one or more magnitude 6.75 or greater earthquakes and a 57 percent probability of one or more magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquakes in the region in the next 50 years. These results highlight the threat of large earthquakes in the region.

Special Issue "Impact of Natural Hazards on Urban Areas and Infrastructure" in the Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bostenaru Dan, M.

2009-04-01

This special issue includes selected papers on the topic of earthquake impact from the sessions held in 2004 in Nice, France and in 2005 in Vienna, Austria at the first and respectivelly the second European Geosciences Union General Assembly. Since its start in 1999, in the Hague, Netherlands, the hazard of earthquakes has been the most popular of the session. The respective calls in 2004 was for: Nature's forces including earthquakes, floods, landslides, high winds and volcanic eruptions can inflict losses to urban settlements and man-made structures such as infrastructure. In Europe, recent years have seen such significant losses from earthquakes in south and south-eastern Europe, floods in central Europe, and wind storms in western Europe. Meanwhile, significant progress has been made in understanding disasters. Several scientific fields contribute to a holistic approach in the evaluation of capacities, vulnerabilities and hazards, the main factors on mitigating urban disasters due to natural hazards. An important part of the session is devoted to assessment of earthquake shaking and loss scenarios, including both physical damage and human causalities. Early warning and rapid damage evaluation are of utmost importance for addressing the safety of many essential facilities, for emergency management of events and for disaster response. In case of earthquake occurrence strong motion networks, data processing and interpretation lead to preliminary estimation (scenarios) of geographical distribution of damages. Factual information on inflicted damage, like those obtained from shaking maps or aerial imagery permit a confrontation with simulation maps of damage in order to define a more accurate picture of the overall losses. Most recent developments towards quantitative and qualitative simulation of natural hazard impacts on urban areas, which provide decision-making support for urban disaster management, and success stories of and lessons learned from disaster

The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and the Rise and Fall of Earthquake Prediction in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Q.; Wang, K.

2009-12-01

Regardless of the future potential of earthquake prediction, it is presently impractical to rely on it to mitigate earthquake disasters. The practical approach is to strengthen the resilience of our built environment to earthquakes based on hazard assessment. But this was not common understanding in China when the M 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake struck the Sichuan Province on 12 May 2008, claiming over 80,000 lives. In China, earthquake prediction is a government-sanctioned and law-regulated measure of disaster prevention. A sudden boom of the earthquake prediction program in 1966-1976 coincided with a succession of nine M > 7 damaging earthquakes in the densely populated region of the country and the political chaos of the Cultural Revolution. It climaxed with the prediction of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake, which was due mainly to an unusually pronounced foreshock sequence and the extraordinary readiness of some local officials to issue imminent warning and evacuation order. The Haicheng prediction was a success in practice and yielded useful lessons, but the experience cannot be applied to most other earthquakes and cultural environments. Since the disastrous Tangshan earthquake in 1976 that killed over 240,000 people, there have been two opposite trends in China: decreasing confidence in prediction and increasing emphasis on regulating construction design for earthquake resilience. In 1976, most of the seismic intensity XI areas of Tangshan were literally razed to the ground, but in 2008, many buildings in the intensity XI areas of Wenchuan did not collapse. Prediction did not save life in either of these events; the difference was made by construction standards. For regular buildings, there was no seismic design in Tangshan to resist any earthquake shaking in 1976, but limited seismic design was required for the Wenchuan area in 2008. Although the construction standards were later recognized to be too low, those buildings that met the standards suffered much less

Methods for assessing the stability of slopes during earthquakes-A retrospective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jibson, R.W.

2011-01-01

During the twentieth century, several methods to assess the stability of slopes during earthquakes were developed. Pseudostatic analysis was the earliest method; it involved simply adding a permanent body force representing the earthquake shaking to a static limit-equilibrium analysis. Stress-deformation analysis, a later development, involved much more complex modeling of slopes using a mesh in which the internal stresses and strains within elements are computed based on the applied external loads, including gravity and seismic loads. Stress-deformation analysis provided the most realistic model of slope behavior, but it is very complex and requires a high density of high-quality soil-property data as well as an accurate model of soil behavior. In 1965, Newmark developed a method that effectively bridges the gap between these two types of analysis. His sliding-block model is easy to apply and provides a useful index of co-seismic slope performance. Subsequent modifications to sliding-block analysis have made it applicable to a wider range of landslide types. Sliding-block analysis provides perhaps the greatest utility of all the types of analysis. It is far easier to apply than stress-deformation analysis, and it yields much more useful information than does pseudostatic analysis. ?? 2010.

The wicked problem of earthquake hazard in developing countries: the example of Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steckler, M. S.; Akhter, S. H.; Stein, S.; Seeber, L.

2017-12-01

Many developing nations in earthquake-prone areas confront a tough problem: how much of their limited resources to use mitigating earthquake hazards? This decision is difficult because it is unclear when an infrequent major earthquake may happen, how big it could be, and how much harm it may cause. This issue faces nations with profound immediate needs and ongoing rapid urbanization. Earthquake hazard mitigation in Bangladesh is a wicked problem. It is the world's most densely populated nation, with 160 million people in an area the size of Iowa. Complex geology and sparse data make assessing a possibly-large earthquake hazard difficult. Hence it is hard to decide how much of the limited resources available should be used for earthquake hazard mitigation, given other more immediate needs. Per capita GDP is $1200, so Bangladesh is committed to economic growth and resources are needed to address many critical challenges and hazards. In their subtropical environment, rural Bangladeshis traditionally relied on modest mud or bamboo homes. Their rapidly growing, crowded capital, Dhaka, is filled with multistory concrete buildings likely to be vulnerable to earthquakes. The risk is compounded by the potential collapse of services and accessibility after a major temblor. However, extensive construction as the population shifts from rural to urban provides opportunity for earthquake-risk reduction. While this situation seems daunting, it is not hopeless. Robust risk management is practical, even for developing nations. It involves recognizing uncertainties and developing policies that should give a reasonable outcome for a range of the possible hazard and loss scenarios. Over decades, Bangladesh has achieved a thousandfold reduction in risk from tropical cyclones by building shelters and setting up a warning system. Similar efforts are underway for earthquakes. Smart investments can be very effective, even if modest. Hence, we suggest strategies consistent with high

Real-time earthquake source imaging: An offline test for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yong; Wang, Rongjiang; Zschau, Jochen; Parolai, Stefano; Dahm, Torsten

2014-05-01

In recent decades, great efforts have been expended in real-time seismology aiming at earthquake and tsunami early warning. One of the most important issues is the real-time assessment of earthquake rupture processes using near-field seismogeodetic networks. Currently, earthquake early warning systems are mostly based on the rapid estimate of P-wave magnitude, which contains generally large uncertainties and the known saturation problem. In the case of the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake, JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) released the first warning of the event with M7.2 after 25 s. The following updates of the magnitude even decreased to M6.3-6.6. Finally, the magnitude estimate stabilized at M8.1 after about two minutes. This led consequently to the underestimated tsunami heights. By using the newly developed Iterative Deconvolution and Stacking (IDS) method for automatic source imaging, we demonstrate an offline test for the real-time analysis of the strong-motion and GPS seismograms of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The results show that we had been theoretically able to image the complex rupture process of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake automatically soon after or even during the rupture process. In general, what had happened on the fault could be robustly imaged with a time delay of about 30 s by using either the strong-motion (KiK-net) or the GPS (GEONET) real-time data. This implies that the new real-time source imaging technique is helpful to reduce false and missing warnings, and therefore should play an important role in future tsunami early warning and earthquake rapid response systems.

Assessment of seismic risk in Tashkent, Uzbekistan and Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erdik, M.; Rashidov, T.; Safak, E.; Turdukulov, A.

2005-01-01

The impact of earthquakes in urban centers prone to disastrous earthquakes necessitates the analysis of associated risk for rational formulation of contingency plans and mitigation strategies. In urban centers the seismic risk is best quantified and portrayed through the preparation of 'Earthquake damage and Loss Scenarios'. The components of such scenarios are the assessment of the hazard, inventories and the vulnerabilities of elements at risk. For the development of earthquake risk scenario in Tashkent-Uzbekistan and Bishkek-Kyrgyzstan an approach based on spectral displacements is utilized. This paper will present the important features of a comprehensive study, highlight the methodology, discuss the results and provide insights to the future developments. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A before and after study on personality assessment in adolescents exposed to the 2009 earthquake in L'Aquila, Italy: influence of sports practice

PubMed Central

Vinciguerra, Maria Giulia; Masedu, Francesco; Tiberti, Sergio; Sconci, Vittorio

2012-01-01

Objective To assess and estimate the personality changes that occurred before and after the 2009 earthquake in L'Aquila and to model the ways that the earthquake affected adolescents according to gender and sport practice. The consequences of earthquakes on psychological health are long lasting for portions of the population, depending on age, gender, social conditions and individual experiences. Sports activities are considered a factor with which to test the overall earthquake impact on individual and social psychological changes in adolescents. Design Before and after design. Setting Population-based study conducted in L'Aquila, Italy, before and after the 2009 earthquake. Participants Before the earthquake, a random sample of 179 adolescent subjects who either practised or did not practise sports (71 vs 108, respectively). After the earthquake, of the original 179 subjects, 149 were assessed a second time. Primary outcome measure Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory—Adolescents (MMPI-A) questionnaire scores, in a supervised environment. Results An unbalanced split plot design, at a 0.05 significance level, was carried out using a linear mixed model with quake, sex and sports practice as predictive factors. Although the overall scores indicated no deviant behaviours in the adolescents tested, changes were detected in many individual content scale scores, including depression (A-dep score mean ± SEM: before quake =47.54±0.73; after quake =52.67±0.86) and social discomfort (A-sod score mean ± SEM: before quake =49.91±0.65; after quake =51.72±0.81). The MMPI-A profiles show different impacts of the earthquake on adolescents according to gender and sport practice. Conclusions The differences detected in MMPI-A scores raise issues about social policies required to address the psychological changes in adolescents. The current study supports the idea that sport should be considered part of a coping strategy to assist adolescents in dealing with the

Vulnerability of port and harbor communities to earthquake and tsunami hazards: The use of GIS in community hazard planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Good, James W.

2004-01-01

AbstractEarthquakes and tsunamis pose significant threats to Pacific Northwest coastal port and harbor communities. Developing holistic mitigation and preparedness strategies to reduce the potential for loss of life and property damage requires community-wide vulnerability assessments that transcend traditional site-specific analyses. The ability of a geographic information system (GIS) to integrate natural, socioeconomic, and hazards information makes it an ideal assessment tool to support community hazard planning efforts. This article summarizes how GIS was used to assess the vulnerability of an Oregon port and harbor community to earthquake and tsunami hazards, as part of a larger risk-reduction planning initiative. The primary purposes of the GIS were to highlight community vulnerability issues and to identify areas that both are susceptible to hazards and contain valued port and harbor community resources. Results of the GIS analyses can help decision makers with limited mitigation resources set priorities for increasing community resiliency to natural hazards.

Assessing a 3D smoothed seismicity model of induced earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zechar, Jeremy; Király, Eszter; Gischig, Valentin; Wiemer, Stefan

2016-04-01

As more energy exploration and extraction efforts cause earthquakes, it becomes increasingly important to control induced seismicity. Risk management schemes must be improved and should ultimately be based on near-real-time forecasting systems. With this goal in mind, we propose a test bench to evaluate models of induced seismicity based on metrics developed by the CSEP community. To illustrate the test bench, we consider a model based on the so-called seismogenic index and a rate decay; to produce three-dimensional forecasts, we smooth past earthquakes in space and time. We explore four variants of this model using the Basel 2006 and Soultz-sous-Forêts 2004 datasets to make short-term forecasts, test their consistency, and rank the model variants. Our results suggest that such a smoothed seismicity model is useful for forecasting induced seismicity within three days, and giving more weight to recent events improves forecast performance. Moreover, the location of the largest induced earthquake is forecast well by this model. Despite the good spatial performance, the model does not estimate the seismicity rate well: it frequently overestimates during stimulation and during the early post-stimulation period, and it systematically underestimates around shut-in. In this presentation, we also describe a robust estimate of information gain, a modification that can also benefit forecast experiments involving tectonic earthquakes.

Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment for Hospital Buildings Using a Gis-Based Group Multi Criteria Decision Making Approach: a Case Study of Tehran, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delavar, M. R.; Moradi, M.; Moshiri, B.

2015-12-01

Nowadays, urban areas are threatened by a number of natural hazards such as flood, landslide and earthquake. They can cause huge damages to buildings and human beings which necessitates disaster mitigation and preparation. One of the most important steps in disaster management is to understand all impacts and effects of disaster on urban facilities. Given that hospitals take care of vulnerable people reaction of hospital buildings against earthquake is vital. In this research, the vulnerability of hospital buildings against earthquake is analysed. The vulnerability of buildings is related to a number of criteria including age of building, number of floors, the quality of materials and intensity of the earthquake. Therefore, the problem of seismic vulnerability assessment is a multi-criteria assessment problem and multi criteria decision making methods can be used to address the problem. In this paper a group multi criteria decision making model is applied because using only one expert's judgments can cause biased vulnerability maps. Sugeno integral which is able to take into account the interaction among criteria is employed to assess the vulnerability degree of buildings. Fuzzy capacities which are similar to layer weights in weighted linear averaging operator are calculated using particle swarm optimization. Then, calculated fuzzy capacities are included into the model to compute a vulnerability degree for each hospital.

Rapid Extraction of Landslide and Spatial Distribution Analysis after Jiuzhaigou Ms7.0 Earthquake Based on Uav Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiao, Q. S.; Luo, Y.; Shen, W. H.; Li, Q.; Wang, X.

2018-04-01

Jiuzhaigou earthquake led to the collapse of the mountains and formed lots of landslides in Jiuzhaigou scenic spot and surrounding roads which caused road blockage and serious ecological damage. Due to the urgency of the rescue, the authors carried unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and entered the disaster area as early as August 9 to obtain the aerial images near the epicenter. On the basis of summarizing the earthquake landslides characteristics in aerial images, by using the object-oriented analysis method, landslides image objects were obtained by multi-scale segmentation, and the feature rule set of each level was automatically built by SEaTH (Separability and Thresholds) algorithm to realize the rapid landslide extraction. Compared with visual interpretation, object-oriented automatic landslides extraction method achieved an accuracy of 94.3 %. The spatial distribution of the earthquake landslide had a significant positive correlation with slope and relief and had a negative correlation with the roughness, but no obvious correlation with the aspect. The relationship between the landslide and the aspect was not found and the probable reason may be that the distance between the study area and the seismogenic fault was too far away. This work provided technical support for the earthquake field emergency, earthquake landslide prediction and disaster loss assessment.

Geomorphic changes induced by the April-May 2015 earthquake sequence in the Pharak-Khumbu area (Nepal): preliminary assessments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fort, Monique

2016-04-01

Landsliding is a common process shaping mountain slopes. There are various potential landslide triggers (rainfall, bank erosion, earthquakes) and their effectiveness depends on their distribution, frequency and magnitude. In a Himalayan context, the effects of monsoon rainfall can be assessed every year whereas the unpredictability and low frequency of large earthquakes make their role in triggering slope instability more obscure. A 7.8 magnitude earthquake struck central Nepal (Gorkha District) on 25 April 2015 and was followed by many aftershocks exceeding magnitude 5, including another strong 7.3 magnitude earthquake on May 12, 2015 (Dolakha District). This seismic crisis provides an exceptional opportunity to assess the disruptions that earthquakes may cause in "regular" geomorphic systems controlled by rainfall. Here we present field observations carried out in the Pharak-Khumbu area (East Nepal, Dudh Kosi catchment) before and after the April-May 2015 earthquakes. The Pharak, a "middle mountains" (2000-4500 m) area, is affected by monsoon rains (3000 m/yr at 2500 m) and characterised by steep hillslopes, shaped by different geomorphic processes according to slope height and aspect, rock type and strength, inherited landforms, stream connectivity and current land use changes. This study focuses on the south of Lukla (Phakding District), and more specifically on the Khari Khola catchment and its surroundings. The area lies at the transition between the Higher Himalayan crystallines and the Lesser Himalayan meta-sediments. On the basis of our diachronic observations (March and November 2015), we surveyed and mapped new earthquake-induced slope instabilities such as rock falls, rockslides, landslides and debris flows and a combination of several of them. Interviews with local people also helped to assess the exact timing of some events. While the first M 7.8 earthquake produced significant impacts in the northern Khumbu area, the M 7.3 aftershock seems to have

The wireless networking system of Earthquake precursor mobile field observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C.; Teng, Y.; Wang, X.; Fan, X.; Wang, X.

2012-12-01

The mobile field observation network could be real-time, reliably record and transmit large amounts of data, strengthen the physical signal observations in specific regions and specific period, it can improve the monitoring capacity and abnormal tracking capability. According to the features of scatter everywhere, a large number of current earthquake precursor observation measuring points, networking technology is based on wireless broadband accessing McWILL system, the communication system of earthquake precursor mobile field observation would real-time, reliably transmit large amounts of data to the monitoring center from measuring points through the connection about equipment and wireless accessing system, broadband wireless access system and precursor mobile observation management center system, thereby implementing remote instrument monitoring and data transmition. At present, the earthquake precursor field mobile observation network technology has been applied to fluxgate magnetometer array geomagnetic observations of Tianzhu, Xichang,and Xinjiang, it can be real-time monitoring the working status of the observational instruments of large area laid after the last two or three years, large scale field operation. Therefore, it can get geomagnetic field data of the local refinement regions and provide high-quality observational data for impending earthquake tracking forecast. Although, wireless networking technology is very suitable for mobile field observation with the features of simple, flexible networking etc, it also has the phenomenon of packet loss etc when transmitting a large number of observational data due to the wireless relatively weak signal and narrow bandwidth. In view of high sampling rate instruments, this project uses data compression and effectively solves the problem of data transmission packet loss; Control commands, status data and observational data transmission use different priorities and means, which control the packet loss rate within

Psychological distress among Bam earthquake survivors in Iran: a population-based study.

PubMed

Montazeri, Ali; Baradaran, Hamid; Omidvari, Sepideh; Azin, Seyed Ali; Ebadi, Mehdi; Garmaroudi, Gholamreza; Harirchi, Amir Mahmood; Shariati, Mohammad

2005-01-11

An earthquake measuring 6.3 on the Richter scale struck the city of Bam in Iran on the 26th of December 2003 at 5.26 A.M. It was devastating, and left over 40,000 dead and around 30,000 injured. The profound tragedy of thousands killed has caused emotional and psychological trauma for tens of thousands of people who have survived. A study was carried out to assess psychological distress among Bam earthquake survivors and factors associated with severe mental health in those who survived the tragedy. This was a population-based study measuring psychological distress among the survivors of Bam earthquake in Iran. Using a multi-stage stratified sampling method a random sample of individuals aged 15 years and over living in Bam were interviewed. Psychological distress was measured using the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12). In all 916 survivors were interviewed. The mean age of the respondents was 32.9 years (SD = 12.4), mostly were males (53%), married (66%) and had secondary school education (50%). Forty-one percent reported they lost 3 to 5 members of their family in the earthquake. In addition the findings showed that 58% of the respondents suffered from severe mental health as measured by the GHQ-12 and this was three times higher than reported psychological distress among the general population. There were significant differences between sub-groups of the study sample with regard to their psychological distress. The results of the logistic regression analysis also indicated that female gender; lower education, unemployment, and loss of family members were associated with severe psychological distress among earthquake victims. The study findings indicated that the amount of psychological distress among earthquake survivors was high and there is an urgent need to deliver mental health care to disaster victims in local medical settings and to reduce negative health impacts of the earthquake adequate psychological counseling is needed for those who

Psychological distress among Bam earthquake survivors in Iran: a population-based study

PubMed Central

Montazeri, Ali; Baradaran, Hamid; Omidvari, Sepideh; Azin, Seyed Ali; Ebadi, Mehdi; Garmaroudi, Gholamreza; Harirchi, Amir Mahmood; Shariati, Mohammad

2005-01-01

Background An earthquake measuring 6.3 on the Richter scale struck the city of Bam in Iran on the 26th of December 2003 at 5.26 A.M. It was devastating, and left over 40,000 dead and around 30,000 injured. The profound tragedy of thousands killed has caused emotional and psychological trauma for tens of thousands of people who have survived. A study was carried out to assess psychological distress among Bam earthquake survivors and factors associated with severe mental health in those who survived the tragedy. Methods This was a population-based study measuring psychological distress among the survivors of Bam earthquake in Iran. Using a multi-stage stratified sampling method a random sample of individuals aged 15 years and over living in Bam were interviewed. Psychological distress was measured using the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12). Results In all 916 survivors were interviewed. The mean age of the respondents was 32.9 years (SD = 12.4), mostly were males (53%), married (66%) and had secondary school education (50%). Forty-one percent reported they lost 3 to 5 members of their family in the earthquake. In addition the findings showed that 58% of the respondents suffered from severe mental health as measured by the GHQ-12 and this was three times higher than reported psychological distress among the general population. There were significant differences between sub-groups of the study sample with regard to their psychological distress. The results of the logistic regression analysis also indicated that female gender; lower education, unemployment, and loss of family members were associated with severe psychological distress among earthquake victims. Conclusion The study findings indicated that the amount of psychological distress among earthquake survivors was high and there is an urgent need to deliver mental health care to disaster victims in local medical settings and to reduce negative health impacts of the earthquake adequate psychological

Earthquake Hazard and the Environmental Seismic Intensity (ESI) Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serva, Leonello; Vittori, Eutizio; Comerci, Valerio; Esposito, Eliana; Guerrieri, Luca; Michetti, Alessandro Maria; Mohammadioun, Bagher; Mohammadioun, Georgianna C.; Porfido, Sabina; Tatevossian, Ruben E.

2016-05-01

The main objective of this paper was to introduce the Environmental Seismic Intensity scale (ESI), a new scale developed and tested by an interdisciplinary group of scientists (geologists, geophysicists and seismologists) in the frame of the International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA) activities, to the widest community of earth scientists and engineers dealing with seismic hazard assessment. This scale defines earthquake intensity by taking into consideration the occurrence, size and areal distribution of earthquake environmental effects (EEE), including surface faulting, tectonic uplift and subsidence, landslides, rock falls, liquefaction, ground collapse and tsunami waves. Indeed, EEEs can significantly improve the evaluation of seismic intensity, which still remains a critical parameter for a realistic seismic hazard assessment, allowing to compare historical and modern earthquakes. Moreover, as shown by recent moderate to large earthquakes, geological effects often cause severe damage"; therefore, their consideration in the earthquake risk scenario is crucial for all stakeholders, especially urban planners, geotechnical and structural engineers, hazard analysts, civil protection agencies and insurance companies. The paper describes background and construction principles of the scale and presents some case studies in different continents and tectonic settings to illustrate its relevant benefits. ESI is normally used together with traditional intensity scales, which, unfortunately, tend to saturate in the highest degrees. In this case and in unpopulated areas, ESI offers a unique way for assessing a reliable earthquake intensity. Finally, yet importantly, the ESI scale also provides a very convenient guideline for the survey of EEEs in earthquake-stricken areas, ensuring they are catalogued in a complete and homogeneous manner.

Earthquakes and depleted gas reservoirs: which comes first?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mucciarelli, M.; Donda, F.; Valensise, G.

2014-12-01

While scientists are paying increasing attention to the seismicity potentially induced by hydrocarbon exploitation, little is known about the reverse problem, i.e. the impact of active faulting and earthquakes on hydrocarbon reservoirs. The recent 2012 earthquakes in Emilia, Italy, raised concerns among the public for being possibly human-induced, but also shed light on the possible use of gas wells as a marker of the seismogenic potential of an active fold-and-thrust belt. Based on the analysis of over 400 borehole datasets from wells drilled along the Ferrara-Romagna Arc, a large oil and gas reserve in the southeastern Po Plain, we found that the 2012 earthquakes occurred within a cluster of sterile wells surrounded by productive ones. Since the geology of the productive and sterile areas is quite similar, we suggest that past earthquakes caused the loss of all natural gas from the potential reservoirs lying above their causative faults. Our findings have two important practical implications: (1) they may allow major seismogenic zones to be identified in areas of sparse seismicity, and (2) suggest that gas should be stored in exploited reservoirs rather than in sterile hydrocarbon traps or aquifers as this is likely to reduce the hazard of triggering significant earthquakes.

Development of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenarios for the city of Tehran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zolfaghari, M. R.; Peyghaleh, E.

2016-01-01

This paper presents the methodology and practical example for the application of optimization process to select earthquake scenarios which best represent probabilistic earthquake hazard in a given region. The method is based on simulation of a large dataset of potential earthquakes, representing the long-term seismotectonic characteristics in a given region. The simulation process uses Monte-Carlo simulation and regional seismogenic source parameters to generate a synthetic earthquake catalogue consisting of a large number of earthquakes, each characterized with magnitude, location, focal depth and fault characteristics. Such catalogue provides full distributions of events in time, space and size; however, demands large computation power when is used for risk assessment, particularly when other sources of uncertainties are involved in the process. To reduce the number of selected earthquake scenarios, a mixed-integer linear program formulation is developed in this study. This approach results in reduced set of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenario, while maintaining shape of hazard curves and full probabilistic picture by minimizing the error between hazard curves driven by full and reduced sets of synthetic earthquake scenarios. To test the model, the regional seismotectonic and seismogenic characteristics of northern Iran are used to simulate a set of 10,000-year worth of events consisting of some 84,000 earthquakes. The optimization model is then performed multiple times with various input data, taking into account probabilistic seismic hazard for Tehran city as the main constrains. The sensitivity of the selected scenarios to the user-specified site/return period error-weight is also assessed. The methodology could enhance run time process for full probabilistic earthquake studies like seismic hazard and risk assessment. The reduced set is the representative of the contributions of all possible earthquakes; however, it requires far less

Children's emotional experience two years after an earthquake: An exploration of knowledge of earthquakes and associated emotions.

PubMed

Raccanello, Daniela; Burro, Roberto; Hall, Rob

2017-01-01

We explored whether and how the exposure to a natural disaster such as the 2012 Emilia Romagna earthquake affected the development of children's emotional competence in terms of understanding, regulating, and expressing emotions, after two years, when compared with a control group not exposed to the earthquake. We also examined the role of class level and gender. The sample included two groups of children (n = 127) attending primary school: The experimental group (n = 65) experienced the 2012 Emilia Romagna earthquake, while the control group (n = 62) did not. The data collection took place two years after the earthquake, when children were seven or ten-year-olds. Beyond assessing the children's understanding of emotions and regulating abilities with standardized instruments, we employed semi-structured interviews to explore their knowledge of earthquakes and associated emotions, and a structured task on the intensity of some target emotions. We applied Generalized Linear Mixed Models. Exposure to the earthquake did not influence the understanding and regulation of emotions. The understanding of emotions varied according to class level and gender. Knowledge of earthquakes, emotional language, and emotions associated with earthquakes were, respectively, more complex, frequent, and intense for children who had experienced the earthquake, and at increasing ages. Our data extend the generalizability of theoretical models on children's psychological functioning following disasters, such as the dose-response model and the organizational-developmental model for child resilience, and provide further knowledge on children's emotional resources related to natural disasters, as a basis for planning educational prevention programs.

Crisis management aspects of bam catastrophic earthquake: review article.

PubMed

Sadeghi-Bazargani, Homayoun; Azami-Aghdash, Saber; Kazemi, Abdolhassan; Ziapour, Behrad

2015-01-01

Bam earthquake was the most catastrophic natural disasters in recent years. The aim of this study was to review different aspects of crisis management during and after the catastrophic earthquake in Bam City, Iran. Data needed for this systematic review were collected through searching PubMed, EMBASE and SID databases, for the period from 2003 to 2011. Keywords included earthquake, Iran and Bam earthquake. The data were summarized and were analyzed using Content Analysis. Out of 422 articles, 25 articles were included in the study. Crisis Management aspects and existing pitfalls were classified into seven categories including planning and organization, human resource management, management of logistics, international humanitarian aids, field performance of the military and security forces, health and medical service provision, and information management. Positive aspects and major pitfalls of crisis management have been introduced in all the mentioned categories. The available evidence indicated poor crisis management during Bam earthquake that resulted in aggravating the losses as well as diminishing the effect of interventions. Thus, concerning the importance of different aspects of the crisis management and the high prevalence of disasters in Iran, the observed vulnerability in disaster management process should be addressed.

The 17 July 2006 Tsunami earthquake in West Java, Indonesia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mori, J.; Mooney, W.D.; Afnimar,; Kurniawan, S.; Anaya, A.I.; Widiyantoro, S.

2007-01-01

A tsunami earthquake (Mw = 7.7) occurred south of Java on 17 July 2006. The event produced relatively low levels of high-frequency radiation, and local felt reports indicated only weak shaking in Java. There was no ground motion damage from the earthquake, but there was extensive damage and loss of life from the tsunami along 250 km of the southern coasts of West Java and Central Java. An inspection of the area a few days after the earthquake showed extensive damage to wooden and unreinforced masonry buildings that were located within several hundred meters of the coast. Since there was no tsunami warning system in place, efforts to escape the large waves depended on how people reacted to the earthquake shaking, which was only weakly felt in the coastal areas. This experience emphasizes the need for adequate tsunami warning systems for the Indian Ocean region.

Time-dependent earthquake probability calculations for southern Kanto after the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nanjo, K. Z.; Sakai, S.; Kato, A.; Tsuruoka, H.; Hirata, N.

2013-05-01

Seismicity in southern Kanto activated with the 2011 March 11 Tohoku earthquake of magnitude M9.0, but does this cause a significant difference in the probability of more earthquakes at the present or in the To? future answer this question, we examine the effect of a change in the seismicity rate on the probability of earthquakes. Our data set is from the Japan Meteorological Agency earthquake catalogue, downloaded on 2012 May 30. Our approach is based on time-dependent earthquake probabilistic calculations, often used for aftershock hazard assessment, and are based on two statistical laws: the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) frequency-magnitude law and the Omori-Utsu (OU) aftershock-decay law. We first confirm that the seismicity following a quake of M4 or larger is well modelled by the GR law with b ˜ 1. Then, there is good agreement with the OU law with p ˜ 0.5, which indicates that the slow decay was notably significant. Based on these results, we then calculate the most probable estimates of future M6-7-class events for various periods, all with a starting date of 2012 May 30. The estimates are higher than pre-quake levels if we consider a period of 3-yr duration or shorter. However, for statistics-based forecasting such as this, errors that arise from parameter estimation must be considered. Taking into account the contribution of these errors to the probability calculations, we conclude that any increase in the probability of earthquakes is insignificant. Although we try to avoid overstating the change in probability, our observations combined with results from previous studies support the likelihood that afterslip (fault creep) in southern Kanto will slowly relax a stress step caused by the Tohoku earthquake. This afterslip in turn reminds us of the potential for stress redistribution to the surrounding regions. We note the importance of varying hazards not only in time but also in space to improve the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for southern Kanto.

Seismic hazard and risks based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir; Nekrasova, Anastasia

2014-05-01

Losses from natural disasters continue to increase mainly due to poor understanding by majority of scientific community, decision makers and public, the three components of Risk, i.e., Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Contemporary Science is responsible for not coping with challenging changes of Exposures and their Vulnerability inflicted by growing population, its concentration, etc., which result in a steady increase of Losses from Natural Hazards. Scientists owe to Society for lack of knowledge, education, and communication. In fact, Contemporary Science can do a better job in disclosing Natural Hazards, assessing Risks, and delivering such knowledge in advance catastrophic events. Any kind of risk estimates R(g) at location g results from a convolution of the natural hazard H(g) with the exposed object under consideration O(g) along with its vulnerability V(O(g)). Note that g could be a point, or a line, or a cell on or under the Earth surface and that distribution of hazards, as well as objects of concern and their vulnerability, could be time-dependent. There exist many different risk estimates even if the same object of risk and the same hazard are involved. It may result from the different laws of convolution, as well as from different kinds of vulnerability of an object of risk under specific environments and conditions. Both conceptual issues must be resolved in a multidisciplinary problem oriented research performed by specialists in the fields of hazard, objects of risk, and object vulnerability, i.e. specialists in earthquake engineering, social sciences and economics. To illustrate this general concept, we first construct seismic hazard assessment maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE). The parameters A, B, and C of USLE, i.e. log N(M,L) = A - B•(M-6) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an area of linear size L, are used to estimate the expected maximum

Earthquake vulnerability assessment of buildings of ward no. 8 of Haldwani-Kathgodam Municipal Corporation, Uttarakhand, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bora, Kritika; Pande, Ravindra K.

2017-07-01

"Earthquake does not kill people; it is the building which kills people". Earthquake is a sudden event below the surface of the earth which results in vertical and horizontal waves that causes destruction. The main aim of this research is to bring into light the unplanned and non-engineered construction practices growing in the Urban areas. Lack of space and continuous migration from hills has resulted in Multistorey construction. The present study is based on primary data collection through Rapid Visual Screening for the assessment of vulnerability of buildings. "Haldwani-Kathgodam being a new Municipal Corporation located in the foot hills of Himalayas is facing same problem. The seismic zonation brings this area into zone 4 of damage risk. Therefore an assessment to estimate the risk of the built up environment is important. This paper presents a systematic and useful way of assessing physical vulnerability of buildings. The present paper will show how the growing pressure on urban area tends to make the built up environment vulnerable towards seismic activities. The challenge today is to make our living environment safe for living. The day by day growing population pressure on urban area as a migration trend in developing countries is leading to high rise building, no planning and reckless construction. For the sake of saving some money people usually do not take the approval from structural engineer. This unplanned and haphazard construction proves non-resistant towards earthquake and brings lives and properties to death and a stand still. The total no. of household in the current study area is 543 whereas the total population is 2497 (2011). The recent formation of Himalayas makes the area more sensitive towards seismic event. The closeness to the Main Boundary thrust brings it to zone 4 in the Seismic Zonation of India i.e., High Damage Risk Zone

The use of psychosocial assessment following the Haiti earthquake in the development of the three-year emotional psycho-medical mental health and psychosocial support (EP-MMHPS) plan.

PubMed

Jordan, Karin

2010-01-01

This article provides information about the 2010 Haiti earthquake. An assessment model used by a crisis counselor responding to the earthquake is presented, focusing on the importance of gathering pre-deployment assessment and in-country assessment. Examples of the information gathered through the in-country assessment model from children, adolescents, and adults are presented. A brief overview of Haiti's three-year Emergency Psycho-Medical Mental Health and Psychosocial Support (EP-MMHPS) is provided. Finally, how the psychosocial manual developed after assessing 200 Haitian survivors through in-country assessment, and information gathered through pre-deployment assessment became part of the EP-MMHPS is offered.