The susceptibility analysis of landslides induced by earthquake in Aso volcanic area, Japan, scoping the prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubota, Tetsuya; Takeda, Tsuyoshi

2017-04-01

Kumamoto earthquake on April 16th 2016 in Kumamoto prefecture, Kyushu Island, Japan with intense seismic scale of M7.3 (maximum acceleration = 1316 gal in Aso volcanic region) yielded countless instances of landslide and debris flow that induced serious damages and causalities in the area, especially in the Aso volcanic mountain range. Hence, field investigation and numerical slope stability analysis were conducted to delve into the characteristics or the prediction factors of the landslides induced by this earthquake. For the numerical analysis, Finite Element Method (FEM) and CSSDP (Critical Slip Surface analysis by Dynamic Programming theory based on limit equilibrium method) were applied to the landslide slopes with seismic acceleration observed. These numerical analysis methods can automatically detect the landslide slip surface which has minimum Fs (factor of safety). The various results and the information obtained through this investigation and analysis were integrated to predict the landslide susceptible slopes in volcanic area induced by earthquakes and rainfalls of their aftermath, considering geologic-geomorphologic features, geo-technical characteristics of the landslides and vegetation effects on the slope stability. Based on the FEM or CSSDP results, the landslides occurred in this earthquake at the mild gradient slope on the ridge have the safety factor of slope Fs=2.20 approximately (without rainfall nor earthquake, and Fs>=1.0 corresponds to stable slope without landslide) and 1.78 2.10 (with the most severe rainfall in the past) while they have approximately Fs=0.40 with the seismic forces in this earthquake (horizontal direction 818 gal, vertical direction -320 gal respectively, observed in the earthquake). It insists that only in case of earthquakes the landslide in volcanic sediment apt to occur at the mild gradient slopes as well as on the ridges with convex cross section. Consequently, the following results are obtained. 1) At volcanic hillside, mild slopes of 7-10 ° gradient with volcanic sediment such as pumice are prone to collapse to be landslide by strong earthquake. 2) The slopes at the mountain ridge with convex cross section where the seismic vibration tends to concentrate are prone to form landslides in case of earthquake. 3) Due to the most severe precipitation of the past or in the aftermath of earthquake, no landslides occurred in these mild gradient slopes or on the mountain ridges with convex cross section. This information will be a great help in the aspect of landslide prediction.

Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: Altai-Sayan Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, V. G.; Nekrasova, A.

2017-12-01

We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on morphostructural analysis, pattern recognition, and the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes, USLE, which generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship making use of naturally fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size in a seismic region. The USLE stands for an empirical relationship log10N(M, L) = A + B·(5 - M) + C·log10L, where N(M, L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L. We use parameters A, B, and C of USLE to estimate, first, the expected maximum credible magnitude in a time interval at seismically prone nodes of the morphostructural scheme of the region under study, then map the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters (e.g. peak ground acceleration, PGA, or macro-seismic intensity etc.). After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (usually, the observed instrumental PGA or the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures (e.g., those based on census of population, buildings inventory, etc.). This, USLE based, methodology of seismic hazard and risks assessment is applied to the territory of Altai-Sayan Region, of Russia. The study supported by the Russian Science Foundation Grant No. 15-17-30020.

Extreme seismicity and disaster risks: Hazard versus vulnerability (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail-Zadeh, A.

2013-12-01

Although the extreme nature of earthquakes has been known for millennia due to the resultant devastation from many of them, the vulnerability of our civilization to extreme seismic events is still growing. It is partly because of the increase in the number of high-risk objects and clustering of populations and infrastructure in the areas prone to seismic hazards. Today an earthquake may affect several hundreds thousand lives and cause significant damage up to hundred billion dollars; it can trigger an ecological catastrophe if occurs in close vicinity to a nuclear power plant. Two types of extreme natural events can be distinguished: (i) large magnitude low probability events, and (ii) the events leading to disasters. Although the first-type events may affect earthquake-prone countries directly or indirectly (as tsunamis, landslides etc.), the second-type events occur mainly in economically less-developed countries where the vulnerability is high and the resilience is low. Although earthquake hazards cannot be reduced, vulnerability to extreme events can be diminished by monitoring human systems and by relevant laws preventing an increase in vulnerability. Significant new knowledge should be gained on extreme seismicity through observations, monitoring, analysis, modeling, comprehensive hazard assessment, prediction, and interpretations to assist in disaster risk analysis. The advanced disaster risk communication skill should be developed to link scientists, emergency management authorities, and the public. Natural, social, economic, and political reasons leading to disasters due to earthquakes will be discussed.

Flood Simulation Using WMS Model in Small Watershed after Strong Earthquake -A Case Study of Longxihe Watershed, Sichuan province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, B.

2017-12-01

Mountain watershed in Western China is prone to flash floods. The Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008 led to the destruction of surface, and frequent landslides and debris flow, which further exacerbated the flash flood hazards. Two giant torrent and debris flows occurred due to heavy rainfall after the earthquake, one was on August 13 2010, and the other on August 18 2010. Flash floods reduction and risk assessment are the key issues in post-disaster reconstruction. Hydrological prediction models are important and cost-efficient mitigation tools being widely applied. In this paper, hydrological observations and simulation using remote sensing data and the WMS model are carried out in the typical flood-hit area, Longxihe watershed, Dujiangyan City, Sichuan Province, China. The hydrological response of rainfall runoff is discussed. The results show that: the WMS HEC-1 model can well simulate the runoff process of small watershed in mountainous area. This methodology can be used in other earthquake-affected areas for risk assessment and to predict the magnitude of flash floods. Key Words: Rainfall-runoff modeling. Remote Sensing. Earthquake. WMS.

Aseismic blocks and destructive earthquakes in the Aegean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stiros, Stathis

2017-04-01

Aseismic areas are not identified only in vast, geologically stable regions, but also within regions of active, intense, distributed deformation such as the Aegean. In the latter, "aseismic blocks" about 200m wide were recognized in the 1990's on the basis of the absence of instrumentally-derived earthquake foci, in contrast to surrounding areas. This pattern was supported by the available historical seismicity data, as well as by geologic evidence. Interestingly, GPS evidence indicates that such blocks are among the areas characterized by small deformation rates relatively to surrounding areas of higher deformation. Still, the largest and most destructive earthquake of the 1990's, the 1995 M6.6 earthquake occurred at the center of one of these "aseismic" zones at the northern part of Greece, found unprotected against seismic hazard. This case was indeed a repeat of the case of the tsunami-associated 1956 Amorgos Island M7.4 earthquake, the largest 20th century event in the Aegean back-arc region: the 1956 earthquake occurred at the center of a geologically distinct region (Cyclades Massif in Central Aegean), till then assumed aseismic. Interestingly, after 1956, the overall idea of aseismic regions remained valid, though a "promontory" of earthquake prone-areas intruding into the aseismic central Aegean was assumed. Exploitation of the archaeological excavation evidence and careful, combined analysis of historical and archaeological data and other palaeoseismic, mostly coastal data, indicated that destructive and major earthquakes have left their traces in previously assumed aseismic blocks. In the latter earthquakes typically occur with relatively low recurrence intervals, >200-300 years, much smaller than in adjacent active areas. Interestingly, areas assumed a-seismic in antiquity are among the most active in the last centuries, while areas hit by major earthquakes in the past are usually classified as areas of low seismic risk in official maps. Some reasons for the apparent contrast between "aseismic" and seismic regions is the problem of the time scale in earthquake sampling, which is superimposed on the problem of earthquake memory within people, especially in changing cultures, and on the selective, "coded", privileged, even extravagant presentation of certain earthquakes by historical sources, troubling ancient, sub-modern and modern investigators and hence distorting the pattern of earthquake occurrence.

Injuries sustained by earthquake relief workers: a retrospective analysis of 207 relief workers during Nepal earthquake.

PubMed

Du, Feizhou; Wu, Jialing; Fan, Jin; Jiang, Rui; Gu, Ming; He, Xiaowu; Wang, Zhiming; He, Ci

2016-07-26

This study aimed to analyse the injuries sustained by rescue workers in earthquake relief efforts in high altitude areas for improving the ways of how to effectively prevent the injuries. The clinical data of 207 relief workers from four military hospitals in Tibet, who were injured in the Tibetan disaster areas of China during '4.25' Nepal earthquake rescue period, was retrospectively analyzed. The demographic features, sites of injury and causes of injury were investigated. The most frequently injured sites were the ankle-foot and hand-wrist (n = 61, 26.5 %), followed by injuries in leg-knee-calf (n = 22, 9.6 %), head-neck (4.87 %), thoracic and abdominal region (2.6 %) and lower back (3.9 %). The specific high-altitude environment increased the challenges associated with earthquake relief. The specific plateau environment and climate increased the burden and challenge in earthquake relief. The injury distribution data shown in this study demonstrated that effective organization and personnel protection can reduce the injury occurrences. Relief workers were prone to suffering various injuries and diseases under specific high-altitude environment.

Joint inversion of high resolution S-wave velocity structure underneath North China Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, C.; Li, G.; Niu, F.

2017-12-01

North China basin is one of earthquake prone areas in China. Many devastating earthquakes occurred in the last century and before, such as the 1937 M7.0 Heze Earthquake in Shandong province, the 1966 M7.2 Xingtai Earthquake and 1976 Tangshan Earthquake in Hebei province. Knowing the structure of the sediment cover is of great importance to predict strong ground motion caused by earthquakes. Unconsolidated sediments are loose materials, ranging from clay to sand to gravel. Earthquakes can liquefy unconsolidated sediments, thus knowing the distribution and thickness of the unconsolidated sediments has significant implication in seismic hazard analysis of the area. Quantitative estimates of the amount of extension of the North China basin is important to understand the thinning and evolution of the eastern North China craton and the underlying mechanism. In principle, the amount of lithospheric stretching can be estimated from sediment and crustal thickness. Therefore an accurate estimate of the sediment and crustal thickness of the area is also important in understanding regional tectonics. In this study, we jointly invert the Rayleigh wave phase-velocity dispersion and Z/H ratio data to construct a 3-D S-wave velocity model beneath North China area. We use 4-year ambient noise data recorded from 249 temporary stations, and 139 earthquake events to extract Rayleigh wave Z/H ratios. The Z/H ratios obtained from ambient noise data and earthquake data show a good agreement within the overlapped periods. The phase velocity dispersion curve was estimated from the same ambient noise data. The preliminary result shows a relatively low Z/H ratio and low velocity anomaly at the shallow part of sediment basins.

The Run-Up of Subduction Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riquelme, S.; Bravo, F. J.; Fuentes, M.; Matias, M.; Medina, M.

2016-12-01

Large earthquakes in subduction zones are liable to produce tsunamis that can cause destruction and fatalities. The Run-up is a geophysical parameter that quantifies damage and if critical facilities or population are exposed to. Here we use the coupling for certain subduction regions measured by different techniques (Potency and GPS observations) to define areas where large earthquakes can occur. Taking the slab 1.0 from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), we can define the geometry of the area including its tsunamigenic potential. By using stochastic earthquakes sources for each area with its maximum tsunamigenic potential, we calculate the numerical and analytical run-up for each case. Then, we perform a statistical analysis and calculate the envelope for both methods. Furthermore, we build an index of risk using: the closest slope to the shore in a piecewise linear approach (last slopecriteria) and the outputsfrom tsunami modeling. Results show that there are areas prone to produce higher run-up than others based on the size of the earthquake, geometrical constraints of the source, tectonic setting and the coast last slope. Based on these results, there are zones that have low risk index which can define escape routes or secure coastal areas for tsunami early warning, urban and planning purposes when detailed data is available.

The Great East-Japan Earthquake and devastating tsunami: an update and lessons from the past Great Earthquakes in Japan since 1923.

PubMed

Ishigaki, Akemi; Higashi, Hikari; Sakamoto, Takako; Shibahara, Shigeki

2013-04-01

Japan has a long history of fighting against great earthquakes that cause structural damage/collapses, fires and/or tsunami. On March 11, 2011 at 14:46 (Friday), the Great East-Japan Earthquake (magnitude 9.0) attacked the Tohoku region (northeastern Japan), which includes Sendai City. The earthquake generated a devastating tsunami, leading to unprecedented disasters (~18,500 victims) in coastal areas of Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima prefectures, despite the fact that people living in the Tohoku region are well trained for tsunami-evacuation procedures, with the mindset of "Tsunami, ten-den-ko." This code means that each person should evacuate individually upon an earthquake. Sharing this rule, children and parents can escape separately from schools, houses or workplaces, without worrying about each other. The concept of ten-den-ko (individual evacuation) is helpful for people living in coastal areas of earthquake-prone zones around the world. It is also important to construct safe evacuation centers, because the March 11(th) tsunami killed people who had evacuated to evacuation sites. We summarize the current conditions of people living in the disaster-stricken areas, including the consequences of the Fukushima nuclear accident. We also describe the disaster responses as the publisher of the Tohoku Journal of Experimental Medicine (TJEM), located in Sendai, with online support from Tokyo. In 1923, the Great Kanto Earthquake (magnitude 7.9) evoked a massive fire that destroyed large areas of Tokyo (~105,000 victims), including the print company for TJEM, but the Wistar Institute printed three TJEM issues in 1923 in Philadelphia. Mutual aid relationships should be established between distant cities to survive future disasters.

Coping with Natural Disasters in Yogyakarta, Indonesia: A Study of Elementary School Seachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seyle, D. Conor; Widyatmoko, C. Siswa; Silver, Roxane Cohen

2013-01-01

The nation of Indonesia is in an area of geological instability, resulting in repeated and severe natural disasters including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis. Teachers, as adult authority figures and people with whom students spend a majority of their day, can play a major role in the lives of children in a disaster-prone community.…

Dynamic evaluation of seismic hazard and risks based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, V. G.; Nekrasova, A.

2016-12-01

We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A + B•(6 - M) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L, A characterizes the average annual rate of strong (M = 6) earthquakes, B determines the balance between magnitude ranges, and C estimates the fractal dimension of seismic locus in projection to the Earth surface. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to assess, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity or paleo data), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures. The hazard maps for a given territory change dramatically, when the methodology is applied to a certain size moving time window, e.g. about a decade long for an intermediate-term regional assessment or exponentially increasing intervals for a daily local strong aftershock forecasting. The of dynamical seismic hazard and risks assessment is illustrated by applications to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea and the two-year series of aftershocks of the 11 October 2008 Kurchaloy, Chechnya earthquake which case-history appears to be encouraging for further systematic testing as potential short-term forecasting tool.

Weights of Evidence Method for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping in Takengon, Central Aceh, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pamela; Sadisun, Imam A.; Arifianti, Yukni

2018-02-01

Takengon is an area prone to earthquake disaster and landslide. On July 2, 2013, Central Aceh earthquake induced large numbers of landslides in Takengon area, which resulted in casualties of 39 people. This location was chosen to assess the landslide susceptibility of Takengon, using a statistical method, referred to as the weight of evidence (WoE). This WoE model was applied to indicate the main factors influencing the landslide susceptible area and to derive landslide susceptibility map of Takengon. The 251 landslides randomly divided into two groups of modeling/training data (70%) and validation/test data sets (30%). Twelve thematic maps of evidence are slope degree, slope aspect, lithology, land cover, elevation, rainfall, lineament, peak ground acceleration, curvature, flow direction, distance to river and roads used as landslide causative factors. According to the AUC, the significant factor controlling the landslide is the slope, the slope aspect, peak ground acceleration, elevation, lithology, flow direction, lineament, and rainfall respectively. Analytical result verified by using test data of landslide shows AUC prediction rate is 0.819 and AUC success rate with all landslide data included is 0.879. This result showed the selective factors and WoE method as good models for assessing landslide susceptibility. The landslide susceptibility map of Takengon shows the probabilities, which represent relative degrees of susceptibility for landslide proneness in Takengon area.

Seismic hazard analysis with PSHA method in four cities in Java.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elistyawati, Y.; Palupi, I. R.; Suharsono

2016-11-01

In this study the tectonic earthquakes was observed through the peak ground acceleration through the PSHA method by dividing the area of the earthquake source. This study applied the earthquake data from 1965 - 2015 that has been analyzed the completeness of the data, location research was the entire Java with stressed in four large cities prone to earthquakes. The results were found to be a hazard map with a return period of 500 years, 2500 years return period, and the hazard curve were four major cities (Jakarta, Bandung, Yogyakarta, and the city of Banyuwangi). Results Java PGA hazard map 500 years had a peak ground acceleration within 0 g ≥ 0.5 g, while the return period of 2500 years had a value of 0 to ≥ 0.8 g. While, the PGA hazard curves on the city's most influential source of the earthquake was from sources such as fault Cimandiri backgroud, for the city of Bandung earthquake sources that influence the seismic source fault dent background form. In other side, the city of Yogyakarta earthquake hazard curve of the most influential was the source of the earthquake background of the Opak fault, and the most influential hazard curve of Banyuwangi earthquake was the source of Java and Sumba megatruts earthquake.

Landslides Induced by 2015 Gorkha Earthquake and Their Continuous Evolution Post 2015 and 2016-Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spear, B.; Haritashya, U. K.; Kargel, J. S.

2017-12-01

Gorkha Nepal has been a hot bed of landslide activity since the 7.8 magnitude earthquake that occurred on April 25th 2015. Even though previous studies have mapped and analyzed the landslides that were directly related to the earthquake, this research maps and analyzes the landslides that occurred during monsoon or after monsoon season in 2015 and 2016. Specifically, our objectives included monitoring post-earthquake landslide evolution and reactivation. We also observed landslides which occurred in the steep side slopes of various small rivers and threatened to block the flow of river. Consequently, we used Landsat, Sentinel, ASTER and images available at Google Earth Engine to locate, map, and analyze these landslides. Our preliminary result indicates 5,270 landslides, however 957 of these landslides occurred significantly after the earthquake. Of the 957 landslides, 508 of them occurred during the monsoon season of 2015 and 48 in the 2016 monsoon season. As well as locating and mapping these landslides, we were able to identify that there were 22 landslides blocking rivers and 24 were reactivated. Our result and landslide density maps clearly identifies zones that are prone to landslides. For example, the steepest areas, such as the Helambu or Langtang region, have a very high concentration of landslides since the earthquake. Furthermore, landslides with the largest area were often nearby each other in very steep regions. This research can be used to determine which areas in the Gorkha Nepal region are safe to use and which areas are high risk.

Causes of unusual distribution of coseismic landslides triggered by the Mw 6.1 2014 Ludian, Yunnan, China earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiao-li; Liu, Chun-guo; Wang, Ming-ming; Zhou, Qing

2018-06-01

The Mw 6.1 2014 Ludian, Yunnan, China earthquake triggered numerous coseismic landslides that do not appear to be associated with any previously known seismogenic fault. Traditional models of triggering for seismically generated landslides do not provide a reasonable explanation for the landslide pattern observed here. Here the Newmark method is applied to a grid to calculate the minimum accelerations required for slope failures throughout the affected region. The results demonstrate that for much of the study area, the distribution of failure prone slopes is similar to the actual pattern of coseismic landslides, however there are some areas where the model predicts considerably fewer failures than occurred. We suggest that this is a result of the complex source faults that generated the Ludian earthquake, which produced a half-conjugate rupture on nearly EW- and NNW trending faults at depth. The rupture directed much of its seismic moment southeast of the epicenter, increasing ground shaking and the number of resulting landslides.

Archaeoseismology in Algeria: observed damages related to probable past earthquakes on archaeological remains on Roman sites (Tel Atlas of Algeria)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roumane, Kahina; Ayadi, Abdelhakim

2017-04-01

The seismological catalogue for Algeria exhibits significant lack for the period before 1365. Some attempts led to retrieve ancient earthquakes evidenced by historical documents and achieves. Archaeoseismology allows a study of earthquakes that have affected archaeological sites, based on the analysis of damage observed on remains. We have focused on the Antiquity period that include Roman, Vandal and Byzantine period from B.C 146 to A.D. 533. This will contribute significantly to the understanding of seismic hazard of the Tell Atlas region known as an earthquake prone area. The Tell Atlas (Algeria) experienced during its history many disastrous earthquakes their impacts are graved on landscape and archaeological monuments. On Roman sites such, Lambaesis (Lambèse), Thamugadi (Timgad) Thibilis (Salaoua Announa) or Thevest (Tebessa), damage were observed on monuments and remains related to seismic events following strong shacking or other ground deformation (subsidence, landslide). Examples of observed damage and disorders on several Roman sites are presented as a contribution to Archaeoseismology in Algeria based on effects of earthquakes on ancient structures and monuments. Keywords : Archaeoseismology. Lambaesis. Drop columns. Aspecelium. Ancient earthquakes

Damage during the 6-24 February 2017 Ayvacık (Çanakkale) earthquake swarm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livaoğlu, Ramazan; Ömer Timurağaoğlu, Mehmet; Serhatoğlu, Cavit; Sami Döven, Mahmud

2018-03-01

On 6 February 2017 an earthquake swarm began at the western end of Turkey. This was the first recorded swarm in the Çanakkale region since continuous seismic monitoring began in 1970. The number of earthquakes located increased during the following 10 days. This paper describes the output of a survey carried out in the earthquake-prone towns in the area of Ayvacık, Çanakkale, Turkey, in February 2017 after the earthquakes. Observations of traditional buildings were made on site at the rural area of Ayvacık. A description of the main structural features and their effects on the most frequently viewed damage modes were made according to in-plane, out-of-plane behavior of the wall regarding construction practice, connection type, etc. It was found that there were no convenient connections like cavity ties or sufficient mortar strength resulting in decreased and/or lack of lateral load bearing capacity of the wall. Furthermore, distribution maps of damaged/undamaged buildings according to villages, damage ratios, structures and damage levels are generated. Distribution maps showed that damage ratio of structures is higher in villages close to epicenter and decrease away from epicenter except Gülpınar, where past experiences and development level affect the construction quality.

Landslides and Earthquake Lakes from the Wenchuan, China Earthquake - Can it Happen in the U.S.?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenner, H.; Cydzik, K.; Hamilton, D.; Cattarossi, A.; Mathieson, E.

2008-12-01

The May 12, 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan, China earthquake destroyed five million homes and schools, causing over 87,650 deaths. Landslides, a secondary effect of the shaking, caused much of the devastation. Debris flows buried homes, rock falls crushed cars, and landslides dammed rivers. Blocked roads greatly impeded emergency access, delaying response. Our August 2008 field experience in the affected area reminded us that the western United States faces serious risks posed by earthquake-induced landslides. The topography of the western U.S. is less extreme than that near Wenchuan, but earthquakes may still cause devastating landslides, damming rivers and blocking access to affected areas. After the Wenchuan earthquake, lakes rapidly rose behind landslide dams, threatening millions of lives. One landslide above Beichuan City created Tangjiashan Lake, a massive body of water upstream of Mianyang, an area with 5.2 million people, 30,000 of whom were killed in the quake. Potential failure of the landslide dam put thousands more people at risk from catastrophic flooding. In 1959, the M7.4 Hebgen Lake earthquake in Montana caused a large landslide, which killed 19 people and dammed the Madison River. The Army Corps excavated sluices to keep the dam from failing catastrophically. The Hebgen Lake earthquake ultimately caused 28 deaths, mostly from landslides, but the affected region was sparsely populated. Slopes prone to strong earthquake shaking and landslides in California, Washington, and Oregon have much larger populations at risk. Landslide hazards continue after the earthquake due to the effect strong shaking has on hillslopes, particularly when subjected to subsequent rain. These hazards must be taken into account. Once a landslide blocks a river, rapid and thoughtful action is needed. The Chinese government quickly and safely mitigated landslide dams that posed the greatest risk to people downstream. It took expert geotechnical advice, the speed and resources of the army, and some luck. It would pay to learn from their success.

Earthquakes Threaten Many American Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bailey, Nancy E.

2010-01-01

Millions of U.S. children attend schools that are not safe from earthquakes, even though they are in earthquake-prone zones. Several cities and states have worked to identify and repair unsafe buildings, but many others have done little or nothing to fix the problem. The reasons for ignoring the problem include political and financial ones, but…

Investigation of atmospheric anomalies associated with Kashmir and Awaran Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmood, Irfan; Iqbal, Muhammad Farooq; Shahzad, Muhammad Imran; Qaiser, Saddam

2017-02-01

The earthquake precursors' anomalies at diverse elevation ranges over the seismogenic region and prior to the seismic events are perceived using Satellite Remote Sensing (SRS) techniques and reanalysis datasets. In the current research, seismic precursors are obtained by analyzing anomalies in Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), Air Temperature (AT), and Relative Humidity (RH) before the two strong Mw>7 earthquakes in Pakistan occurred on 8th October 2005 in Azad Jammu Kashmir with Mw 7.6, and 24th September 2013 in Awaran, Balochistan with Mw 7.7. Multi-parameter data were computed based on multi-year background data for anomalies computation. Results indicate significant transient variations in observed parameters before the main event. Detailed analysis suggests presence of pre-seismic activities one to three weeks prior to the main earthquake event that vanishes after the event. These anomalies are due to increase in temperature after release of gases and physical and chemical interactions on earth surface before the earthquake. The parameter variations behavior for both Kashmir and Awaran earthquake events are similar to other earthquakes in different regions of the world. This study suggests that energy release is not concentrated to a single fault but instead is released along the fault zone. The influence of earthquake events on lightning were also investigated and it was concluded that there is a significant atmospheric lightning activity after the earthquake suggesting a strong possibility for an earthquake induced thunderstorm. This study is valuable for identifying earthquake precursors especially in earthquake prone areas.

Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

2014-05-01

Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII. The usable and realistic ground motion maps for urban areas are generated: - either from the assumption of a "reference earthquake" - or directly, showing values of macroseimic intensity generated by a damaging, real earthquake. In the study, applying deterministic approach, earthquake scenario in macroseismic intensity ("model" earthquake scenario) for the city of Sofia is generated. The deterministic "model" intensity scenario based on assumption of a "reference earthquake" is compared with a scenario based on observed macroseimic effects caused by the damaging 2012 earthquake (MW5.6). The difference between observed (Io) and predicted (Ip) intensities values is analyzed.

Implementation Of Haversine Formula And Best First Search Method In Searching Of Tsunami Evacuation Route

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anisya; Yoga Swara, Ganda

2017-12-01

Padang is one of the cities prone to earthquake disaster with tsunami due to its position at the meeting of two active plates, this is, a source of potentially powerful earthquake and tsunami. Central government and most offices are located in the red zone (vulnerable areas), it will also affect the evacuation of the population during the earthquake and tsunami disaster. In this study, researchers produced a system of search nearest shelter using best-first-search method. This method uses the heuristic function, the amount of cost taken and the estimated value or travel time, path length and population density. To calculate the length of the path, researchers used method of haversine formula. The value obtained from the calculation process is implemented on a web-based system. Some alternative paths and some of the closest shelters will be displayed in the system.

A review of the 2005 Kashmir earthquake-induced landslides; from a remote sensing prospective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shafique, Muhammad; van der Meijde, Mark; Khan, M. Asif

2016-03-01

The 8th October 2005 Kashmir earthquake, in northern Pakistan has triggered thousands of landslides, which was the second major factor in the destruction of the build-up environment, after earthquake-induced ground shaking. Subsequent to the earthquake, several researchers from home and abroad applied a variety of remote sensing techniques, supported with field observations, to develop inventories of the earthquake-triggered landslides, analyzed their spatial distribution and subsequently developed landslide-susceptibility maps. Earthquake causative fault rupture, geology, anthropogenic activities and remote sensing derived topographic attributes were observed to have major influence on the spatial distribution of landslides. These were subsequently used to develop a landslide susceptibility map, thereby demarcating the areas prone to landsliding. Temporal studies monitoring the earthquake-induced landslides shows that the earthquake-induced landslides are stabilized, contrary to earlier belief, directly after the earthquake. The biggest landslide induced dam, as a result of the massive Hattian Bala landslide, is still posing a threat to the surrounding communities. It is observed that remote sensing data is effectively and efficiently used to assess the landslides triggered by the Kashmir earthquake, however, there is still a need of more research to understand the mechanism of intensity and distribution of landslides; and their continuous monitoring using remote sensing data at a regional scale. This paper, provides an overview of remote sensing and GIS applications, for the Kashmir-earthquake triggered landslides, derived outputs and discusses the lessons learnt, advantages, limitations and recommendations for future research.

Multi-hazards risk assessment at different levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frolova, N.; Larionov, V.; Bonnin, J.

2012-04-01

Natural and technological disasters are becoming more frequent and devastating. Social and economic losses due to those events increase annually, which is definitely in relation with evolution of society. Natural hazards identification and analysis, as well natural risk assessment taking into account secondary technological accidents are the first steps in prevention strategy aimed at saving lives and protecting property against future events. The paper addresses methodological issues of natural and technological integrated risk assessment and mapping at different levels [1, 2]. At the country level the most hazardous natural processes, which may results in fatalities, injuries and economic loss in the Russian Federation, are considered. They are earthquakes, landslides, mud flows, floods, storms, avalanches. The special GIS environment for the country territory was developed which includes information about hazards' level and reoccurrence, an impact databases for the last 20 years, as well as models for estimating damage and casualties caused by these hazards. Federal maps of seismic individual and collective risk, as well as multi-hazards natural risk maps are presented. The examples of regional seismic risk assessment taking into account secondary accidents at fire, explosion and chemical hazardous facilities and regional integrated risk assessment are given for the earthquake prone areas of the Russian Federation. The paper also gives examples of loss computations due to scenario earthquakes taking into account accidents trigged by strong events at critical facilities: fire and chemical hazardous facilities, including oil pipe lines routes located in the earthquake prone areas. The estimations of individual seismic risk obtained are used by EMERCOM of the Russian Federation, as well as by other federal and local authorities, for planning and implementing preventive measures, aimed at saving lives and protecting property against future disastrous events. The results also allow to develop effective emergency response plans taking into account possible scenario events. Taking into consideration the size of the oil pipe line systems located in the highly active seismic zones, the results of seismic risk computation are used by TRANSNEFT JSC.

Identification and interpretation of tectonic features from ERTS-1 imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abdel-Gawad, M. (Principal Investigator)

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Many criteria of active or recent fault movements are observable in the imagery. It was observed that where earthquake epicenter clusters occur, evidence of recent fault movements is generally observed. The opposite was not necessarily true as there are areas where evidence of recent faulting is observed, often along major known faults which are peculiarly devoid of significant seismicity. A tentative conclusion is that the seismicity pattern alone can often be a misleading criteria for potential earthquake hazards. The feasibility of recognizing geomorphic criteria of recent fault movement from ERTS-1 imagery suggests that ERTS imagery should be used to map potentially active faults and utilize this data to develop better criteria for the identification of areas prone to future earthquakes. An apparent correlation was observed between the distribution of mercury deposits in the California Coast Range Province and transverse fault zones trending west-northwest oblique to the trend of the San Andreas system. The significance of this correlation and the full extent of its implication on mercury exploration is under study.

Earthquake scenarios based on lessons from the past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solakov, Dimcho; Simeonova, Stella; Aleksandrova, Irena; Popova, Iliana

2010-05-01

Earthquakes are the most deadly of the natural disasters affecting the human environment; indeed catastrophic earthquakes have marked the whole human history. Global seismic hazard and vulnerability to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that are prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The implementation of the earthquake scenarios into the policies for seismic risk reduction will allow focusing on the prevention of earthquake effects rather than on intervention following the disasters. The territory of Bulgaria (situated in the eastern part of the Balkan Peninsula) represents a typical example of high seismic risk area. Over the centuries, Bulgaria has experienced strong earthquakes. At the beginning of the 20-the century (from 1901 to 1928) five earthquakes with magnitude larger than or equal to MS=7.0 occurred in Bulgaria. However, no such large earthquakes occurred in Bulgaria since 1928, which may induce non-professionals to underestimate the earthquake risk. The 1986 earthquake of magnitude MS=5.7 occurred in the central northern Bulgaria (near the town of Strazhitsa) is the strongest quake after 1928. Moreover, the seismicity of the neighboring countries, like Greece, Turkey, former Yugoslavia and Romania (especially Vrancea-Romania intermediate earthquakes), influences the seismic hazard in Bulgaria. In the present study deterministic scenarios (expressed in seismic intensity) for two Bulgarian cities (Rouse and Plovdiv) are presented. The work on scenarios was guided by the perception that usable and realistic (also in the sense of being compatible with seismic histories of cities that are several centuries long) ground motion maps had to be produced for urban areas. By deterministic scenario it is mean a representation of the severity of ground shaking over an urban area, using one or more hazard descriptors. Such representation can be obtained: - either from the assumption of a "reference earthquake" specified by a magnitude or an epicentral intensity, associated to a particular earthquake source - or, directly, showing values of local macroseimic intensity generated by a damaging, real earthquakes of the past. In the study we chose for the second method using the values of macroseimic intensity caused by damaging historical earthquakes (the 1928 quakes in southern Bulgaria; the 1940 and the 1977 Vrancea intermediate earthquakes) - lessons from the past. Such scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning.

Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment in North Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mourabit, T.; Abou Elenean, K. M.; Ayadi, A.; Benouar, D.; Ben Suleman, A.; Bezzeghoud, M.; Cheddadi, A.; Chourak, M.; ElGabry, M. N.; Harbi, A.; Hfaiedh, M.; Hussein, H. M.; Kacem, J.; Ksentini, A.; Jabour, N.; Magrin, A.; Maouche, S.; Meghraoui, M.; Ousadou, F.; Panza, G. F.; Peresan, A.; Romdhane, N.; Vaccari, F.; Zuccolo, E.

2014-04-01

North Africa is one of the most earthquake-prone areas of the Mediterranean. Many devastating earthquakes, some of them tsunami-triggering, inflicted heavy loss of life and considerable economic damage to the region. In order to mitigate the destructive impact of the earthquakes, the regional seismic hazard in North Africa is assessed using the neo-deterministic, multi-scenario methodology (NDSHA) based on the computation of synthetic seismograms, using the modal summation technique, at a regular grid of 0.2 × 0.2°. This is the first study aimed at producing NDSHA maps of North Africa including five countries: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt. The key input data for the NDSHA algorithm are earthquake sources, seismotectonic zonation, and structural models. In the preparation of the input data, it has been really important to go beyond the national borders and to adopt a coherent strategy all over the area. Thanks to the collaborative efforts of the teams involved, it has been possible to properly merge the earthquake catalogues available for each country to define with homogeneous criteria the seismogenic zones, the characteristic focal mechanism associated with each of them, and the structural models used to model wave propagation from the sources to the sites. As a result, reliable seismic hazard maps are produced in terms of maximum displacement ( D max), maximum velocity ( V max), and design ground acceleration.

Assessment of early warning system performance and improvements since it is in operational phase in Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ionescu, Constantin; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Ortansa Cioflan, Carmen

2017-04-01

Earthquake represents a major natural disaster for Romanian territory. The main goal following the occurrence of a strong earthquake is to minimize the total number of fatalities. A rapid early warning system (REWS) was developed in Romania in order to provide 25-35 seconds warning time to Bucharest facilities for the earthquakes with M>5.0. The system consists of four components: a network of strong motion sensors installed in the epicentral area, a redundant communication network, an automatic analyzing system located in the Romanian Data Centre and an alert distribution system. The detection algorithm is based on the magnitude computation using strong motion data and rapid evaluation and scaling relation between the maximum P-wave acceleration measured in the epicentral area and the higher ground motion amplitude recorded in Bucharest. In order to reduce the damages caused by earthquakes, the exploitation of the up to date technology is very important. The information is the key point in the disaster management, and the internet is one of the most used instrument, implying also low costs. The Rapid Early Warning System was expanded to cover all countries affected by major earthquakes originating in the Vrancea seismic area and reduce their impact on existing installations of national interest in neighbouring Romania and elsewhere. REWS provides an efficient instrument for prevention and reaction based on the integrated system for seismic detection in South-Eastern Europe. REWS has been operational since 2013 and sends alert the authorities, hazardous facilities in Romania and Bulgaria (NPP, emergency response agencies etc.) and to public via twitter and some smartphone applications developed in the house. Also, NIEP is part of the UNESCO initiative case on developing a platform on earthquake early warning systems (IP-MEP) that aims to promote and strengthen the development of earthquake early warning systems in earthquake-prone regions of the world by sharing scientific knowledge, capacity building and international cooperation.

Seismogenic structures of the 2006 ML4.0 Dangan Island earthquake offshore Hong Kong

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Shaohong; Cao, Jinghe; Sun, Jinlong; Lv, Jinshui; Xu, Huilong; Zhang, Xiang; Wan, Kuiyuan; Fan, Chaoyan; Zhou, Pengxiang

2018-02-01

The northern margin of the South China Sea, as a typical extensional continental margin, has relatively strong intraplate seismicity. Compared with the active zones of Nanao Island, Yangjiang, and Heyuan, seismicity in the Pearl River Estuary is relatively low. However, a ML4.0 earthquake in 2006 occurred near Dangan Island (DI) offshore Hong Kong, and this site was adjacent to the source of the historical M5.8 earthquake in 1874. To reveal the seismogenic mechanism of intraplate earthquakes in DI, we systematically analyzed the structural characteristics in the source area of the 2006 DI earthquake using integrated 24-channel seismic profiles, onshore-offshore wide-angle seismic tomography, and natural earthquake parameters. We ascertained the locations of NW- and NE-trending faults in the DI sea and found that the NE-trending DI fault mainly dipped southeast at a high angle and cut through the crust with an obvious low-velocity anomaly. The NW-trending fault dipped southwest with a similar high angle. The 2006 DI earthquake was adjacent to the intersection of the NE- and NW-trending faults, which suggested that the intersection of the two faults with different strikes could provide a favorable condition for the generation and triggering of intraplate earthquakes. Crustal velocity model showed that the high-velocity anomaly was imaged in the west of DI, but a distinct entity with low-velocity anomaly in the upper crust and high-velocity anomaly in the lower crust was found in the south of DI. Both the 1874 and 2006 DI earthquakes occurred along the edge of the distinct entity. Two vertical cross-sections nearly perpendicular to the strikes of the intersecting faults revealed good spatial correlations between the 2006 DI earthquake and the low to high speed transition in the distinct entity. This result indicated that the transitional zone might be a weakly structural body that can store strain energy and release it as a brittle failure, resulting in an earthquake-prone area.

Seismic Hazard and risk assessment for Romania -Bulgaria cross-border region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Alexandrova, Irena; Vaseva, Elena; Trifonova, Petya; Raykova, Plamena

2016-04-01

Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic hazard and vulnerability to earthquakes are steadily increasing as urbanization and development occupy more areas that are prone to effects of strong earthquakes. The assessment of the seismic hazard and risk is particularly important, because it provides valuable information for seismic safety and disaster mitigation, and it supports decision making for the benefit of society. Romania and Bulgaria, situated in the Balkan Region as a part of the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt, are characterized by high seismicity, and are exposed to a high seismic risk. Over the centuries, both countries have experienced strong earthquakes. The cross-border region encompassing the northern Bulgaria and southern Romania is a territory prone to effects of strong earthquakes. The area is significantly affected by earthquakes occurred in both countries, on the one hand the events generated by the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source in Romania, and on the other hand by the crustal seismicity originated in the seismic sources: Shabla (SHB), Dulovo, Gorna Orjahovitza (GO) in Bulgaria. The Vrancea seismogenic zone of Romania is a very peculiar seismic source, often described as unique in the world, and it represents a major concern for most of the northern part of Bulgaria as well. In the present study the seismic hazard for Romania-Bulgaria cross-border region on the basis of integrated basic geo-datasets is assessed. The hazard results are obtained by applying two alternative approaches - probabilistic and deterministic. The MSK64 intensity (MSK64 scale is practically equal to the new EMS98) is used as output parameter for the hazard maps. We prefer to use here the macroseismic intensity instead of PGA, because it is directly related to the degree of damages and, moreover, the epicentral intensity is the original parameter in the historical earthquake catalogues. A particular advantage of using intensities is that the very irregular pattern of the attenuation field of the Vrancea intermediate depth earthquakes can be estimated from detailed macroseismic observations that are available (in both countries) for the study region. Additionally, de-aggregation of the seismic hazard for a recurrence period of 475 years (probability of exceedance of 10% in 50 years) for intensity was performed for 9 cities (administrative centers) situated in northern Bulgaria. Finally, applying SELENA software earthquake risk for Bulgarian part of the cross-boarder region is analyzed. The results presented for the Romania-Bulgaria cross border region are part of the work carried out in the DACEA Project (2010-2013) that was implemented in the framework of the Romania - Bulgaria Cross Border Cooperation Programme (2007-2013).

Strength, functionality and beauty of university buildings in earthquake-prone countries

PubMed Central

WADA, Akira

2018-01-01

Strength, functionality and beauty are the three qualities identifying well-designed architecture. For buildings in earthquake-prone countries such as Japan, emphasis on seismic safety frequently leads to the sacrifice of functionality and beauty. Therefore, it is important to develop new structural technologies that can ensure the seismic performance of a building without hampering the pursuit of functionality and beauty. The moment-resisting frame structures widely used for buildings in Japan are likely to experience weak-story collapse. Pin-supported walls, which can effectively enhance the structural story-by-story integrity of a building, were introduced to prevent such an unfavorable failure pattern in the seismic retrofit of an eleven-story building on a university campus in Tokyo, while also greatly aesthetically enhancing the façade of the building. The slight damage observed and monitoring records of the retrofitted building during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake in Japan demonstrate that the pin-supported walls worked as intended, protecting the building and guaranteeing the safety of its occupants during the earthquake. PMID:29434079

Rapid Tsunami Inundation Forecast from Near-field or Far-field Earthquakes using Pre-computed Tsunami Database: Pelabuhan Ratu, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusman, A. R.; Setiyono, U.; Satake, K.; Fujii, Y.

2017-12-01

We built pre-computed tsunami inundation database in Pelabuhan Ratu, one of tsunami-prone areas on the southern coast of Java, Indonesia. The tsunami database can be employed for a rapid estimation of tsunami inundation during an event. The pre-computed tsunami waveforms and inundations are from a total of 340 scenarios ranging from 7.5 to 9.2 in moment magnitude scale (Mw), including simple fault models of 208 thrust faults and 44 tsunami earthquakes on the plate interface, as well as 44 normal faults and 44 reverse faults in the outer-rise region. Using our tsunami inundation forecasting algorithm (NearTIF), we could rapidly estimate the tsunami inundation in Pelabuhan Ratu for three different hypothetical earthquakes. The first hypothetical earthquake is a megathrust earthquake type (Mw 9.0) offshore Sumatra which is about 600 km from Pelabuhan Ratu to represent a worst-case event in the far-field. The second hypothetical earthquake (Mw 8.5) is based on a slip deficit rate estimation from geodetic measurements and represents a most likely large event near Pelabuhan Ratu. The third hypothetical earthquake is a tsunami earthquake type (Mw 8.1) which often occur south off Java. We compared the tsunami inundation maps produced by the NearTIF algorithm with results of direct forward inundation modeling for the hypothetical earthquakes. The tsunami inundation maps produced from both methods are similar for the three cases. However, the tsunami inundation map from the inundation database can be obtained in much shorter time (1 min) than the one from a forward inundation modeling (40 min). These indicate that the NearTIF algorithm based on pre-computed inundation database is reliable and useful for tsunami warning purposes. This study also demonstrates that the NearTIF algorithm can work well even though the earthquake source is located outside the area of fault model database because it uses a time shifting procedure for the best-fit scenario searching.

Seismic hazard assessment based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: the Greater Caucasus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nekrasova, A.; Kossobokov, V. G.

2015-12-01

Losses from natural disasters continue to increase mainly due to poor understanding by majority of scientific community, decision makers and public, the three components of Risk, i.e., Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Contemporary Science is responsible for not coping with challenging changes of Exposures and their Vulnerability inflicted by growing population, its concentration, etc., which result in a steady increase of Losses from Natural Hazards. Scientists owe to Society for lack of knowledge, education, and communication. In fact, Contemporary Science can do a better job in disclosing Natural Hazards, assessing Risks, and delivering such knowledge in advance catastrophic events. We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A - B•(M-6) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to estimate, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters including macro-seismic intensity. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks (e.g., those based on the density of exposed population). The methodology of seismic hazard and risks assessment based on USLE is illustrated by application to the seismic region of Greater Caucasus.

Complex rupture mechanism and topography control symmetry of mass-wasting pattern, 2010 Haiti earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorum, Tolga; van Westen, Cees J.; Korup, Oliver; van der Meijde, Mark; Fan, Xuanmei; van der Meer, Freek D.

2013-02-01

The 12 January 2010 Mw 7.0 Haiti earthquake occurred in a complex deformation zone at the boundary between the North American and Caribbean plates. Combined geodetic, geological and seismological data posited that surface deformation was driven by rupture on the Léogâne blind thrust fault, while part of the rupture occurred as deep lateral slip on the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden Fault (EPGF). The earthquake triggered > 4490 landslides, mainly shallow, disrupted rock falls, debris-soil falls and slides, and a few lateral spreads, over an area of ~ 2150 km2. The regional distribution of these slope failures defies those of most similar earthquake-triggered landslide episodes reported previously. Most of the coseismic landslides did not proliferate in the hanging wall of the main rupture, but clustered instead at the junction of the blind Léogâne and EPGF ruptures, where topographic relief and hillslope steepness are above average. Also, low-relief areas subjected to high coseismic uplift were prone to lesser hanging wall slope instability than previous studies would suggest. We argue that a combined effect of complex rupture dynamics and topography primarily control this previously rarely documented landslide pattern. Compared to recent thrust fault-earthquakes of similar magnitudes elsewhere, we conclude that lower static stress drop, mean fault displacement, and blind ruptures of the 2010 Haiti earthquake resulted in fewer, smaller, and more symmetrically distributed landslides than previous studies would suggest. Our findings caution against overly relying on across-the-board models of slope stability response to seismic ground shaking.

Earthquake Hazard and Risk in Sub-Saharan Africa: current status of the Global Earthquake model (GEM) initiative in the region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayele, Atalay; Midzi, Vunganai; Ateba, Bekoa; Mulabisana, Thifhelimbilu; Marimira, Kwangwari; Hlatywayo, Dumisani J.; Akpan, Ofonime; Amponsah, Paulina; Georges, Tuluka M.; Durrheim, Ray

2013-04-01

Large magnitude earthquakes have been observed in Sub-Saharan Africa in the recent past, such as the Machaze event of 2006 (Mw, 7.0) in Mozambique and the 2009 Karonga earthquake (Mw 6.2) in Malawi. The December 13, 1910 earthquake (Ms = 7.3) in the Rukwa rift (Tanzania) is the largest of all instrumentally recorded events known to have occurred in East Africa. The overall earthquake hazard in the region is on the lower side compared to other earthquake prone areas in the globe. However, the risk level is high enough for it to receive attention of the African governments and the donor community. The latest earthquake hazard map for the sub-Saharan Africa was done in 1999 and updating is long overdue as several development activities in the construction industry is booming allover sub-Saharan Africa. To this effect, regional seismologists are working together under the GEM (Global Earthquake Model) framework to improve incomplete, inhomogeneous and uncertain catalogues. The working group is also contributing to the UNESCO-IGCP (SIDA) 601 project and assessing all possible sources of data for the catalogue as well as for the seismotectonic characteristics that will help to develop a reasonable hazard model in the region. In the current progress, it is noted that the region is more seismically active than we thought. This demands the coordinated effort of the regional experts to systematically compile all available information for a better output so as to mitigate earthquake risk in the sub-Saharan Africa.

International Collaboration for Strengthening Capacity to Assess Earthquake Hazard in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cummins, P. R.; Hidayati, S.; Suhardjono, S.; Meilano, I.; Natawidjaja, D.

2012-12-01

Indonesia has experienced a dramatic increase in earthquake risk due to rapid population growth in the 20th century, much of it occurring in areas near the subduction zone plate boundaries that are prone to earthquake occurrence. While recent seismic hazard assessments have resulted in better building codes that can inform safer building practices, many of the fundamental parameters controlling earthquake occurrence and ground shaking - e.g., fault slip rates, earthquake scaling relations, ground motion prediction equations, and site response - could still be better constrained. In recognition of the need to improve the level of information on which seismic hazard assessments are based, the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID) and Indonesia's National Agency for Disaster Management (BNPB), through the Australia-Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction, have initiated a 4-year project designed to strengthen the Government of Indonesia's capacity to reliably assess earthquake hazard. This project is a collaboration of Australian institutions including Geoscience Australia and the Australian National University, with Indonesian government agencies and universities including the Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics, the Geological Agency, the Indonesian Institute of Sciences, and Bandung Institute of Technology. Effective earthquake hazard assessment requires input from many different types of research, ranging from geological studies of active faults, seismological studies of crustal structure, earthquake sources and ground motion, PSHA methodology, and geodetic studies of crustal strain rates. The project is a large and diverse one that spans all these components, and these will be briefly reviewed in this presentation

Prevalence and psychosocial risk factors of PTSD: 18 months after Kashmir earthquake in Pakistan.

PubMed

Naeem, Farooq; Ayub, Muhammad; Masood, Khadija; Gul, Huma; Khalid, Mahwish; Farrukh, Ammara; Shaheen, Aisha; Waheed, Waquas; Chaudhry, Haroon Rasheed

2011-04-01

On average in a year 939 earthquakes of a magnitude between 5 and 8 on the Richter scale occur around the world. In earthquakes developing countries are prone to large-scale destruction because of poor structural quality of buildings, and preparedness for earthquakes. On 8th October 2005, a major earthquake hit the remote and mountainous region of northern Pakistan and Kashmir. We wanted to find out the rate of PTSD in a randomly selected sample of participants living in earthquake area and the correlates of the PTSD. The study was conducted 18 months after the earthquake. We selected a sample of men and women living in the houses and tents for interviews. Using well established instruments for PTSD and general psychiatric morbidity we gathered information from over 1200 people in face to face interviews. We gathered information about trauma exposure and loss as well. 55.2% women and 33.4% men suffered from PTSD. Living in a joint family was protective against the symptoms of PTSD. Dose of exposure to trauma was associated with the symptoms of PTSD. Living in a tent was associated with general psychiatric morbidity but not with PTSD. We used questionnaire instead of interviews to detect the symptoms of psychiatric disorders. The symptoms of PTSD are common 18 months after the earthquake and they are specifically associated with the dose of trauma exposure. This may have implications for rehabilitation of this population. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Landslides triggered by the Minxian-Zhangxian, China, Mw 5.9 earthquake of 22 July 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Chong; Xu, Xiwei; Shyu, J. Bruce H.

2014-05-01

On July 22, 2013, an earthquake of Ms 6.6 occurred at the junction area of Minxian and Zhangxian counties, Gansu Province, China. This earthquake triggered many landslides of various types, dominated by small-scale soil falls, slides, and topples on loess scarps. There were also some deep-seated landslides, large-scale soil avalanches, and fissure-developing slopes. In this paper, an inventory of landslides triggered by this event is prepared based on field investigations and visual interpretation of high-resolution satellite images. The spatial distribution of the landslides is then analyzed. The inventory indicates that at least 2,330 landslides were triggered by the earthquake. A correlation statistics of the landslides with topographic, geologic, and earthquake factors is performed based on the GIS platform. The results show that the largest number of landslides and the highest landslide density are at 2,400m-2,600m of absolute elevation, and 200m-300m of relative elevation, respectively. The landslide density does not always increase with slope gradient as previously suggested. The slopes most prone to landslides are in S, SW, W, and NW directions. Concave slopes register higher landslide density and larger number of landslides than convex slopes. The largest number of landslides occurs on topographic position with middle slopes, whereas the highest landslide density corresponds to valleys and lower slopes. The underlying bedrocks consisting of conglomerate and sandstone of Lower Paleogene (Eb) register both the largest number of landslides and the highest landslide density value. There is no clear relationship between PGA and the co-seismic landslides. Correlations of landslide number and landslide density with perpendicular- and along-strike distance from the epicenter show an obvious spatial intensifying character of the co-seismic landslides. The spatial pattern of the co-seismic landslides is strongly controlled by a branch of the Lintan-Dangchang fault, which indicates the effect of seismogenic fault on co-seismic landslides. In addition, the landslide limit area related to the earthquake is compared to the relationship of "landslide limit area vs. earthquake magnitude" constructed based on earthquakes worldwide, and it is shown that the limit area of landslides triggered by the Minxian-Zhangxian earthquake is larger than that of almost all other events with similar magnitudes. This research was supported by the National Science Foundation of China (41202235).

Community variations in social vulnerability to Cascadia-related tsunamis in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, N.J.; Burton, C.G.; Cutter, S.L.

2010-01-01

Tsunamis generated by Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes pose significant threats to coastal communities in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. Impacts of future tsunamis to individuals and communities will likely vary due to pre-event socioeconomic and demographic differences. In order to assess social vulnerability to Cascadia tsunamis, we adjust a social vulnerability index based on principal component analysis first developed by Cutter et al. (2003) to operate at the census-block level of geography and focus on community-level comparisons along the Oregon coast. The number of residents from blocks in tsunami-prone areas considered to have higher social vulnerability varies considerably among 26 Oregon cities and most are concentrated in four cities and two unincorporated areas. Variations in the number of residents from census blocks considered to have higher social vulnerability in each city do not strongly correlate with the number of residents or city assets in tsunami-prone areas. Methods presented here will help emergency managers to identify community sub-groups that are more susceptible to loss and to develop risk-reduction strategies that are tailored to local conditions. ?? z.

Applying Binary Forecasting Approaches to Induced Seismicity in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahue, R.; Shcherbakov, R.

2016-12-01

The Western Canada Sedimentary Basin has been chosen as a focus due to an increase in the recent observed seismicity there which is most likely linked to anthropogenic activities related to unconventional oil and gas exploration. Seismicity caused by these types of activities is called induced seismicity. The occurrence of moderate to larger induced earthquakes in areas where critical infrastructure is present can be potentially problematic. Here we use a binary forecast method to analyze past seismicity and well production data in order to quantify future areas of increased seismicity. This method splits the given region into spatial cells. The binary forecast method used here has been suggested in the past to retroactively forecast large earthquakes occurring globally in areas called alarm cells. An alarm cell, or alert zone, is a bin in which there is a higher likelihood for earthquakes to occur based on previous data. The first method utilizes the cumulative Benioff strain, based on earthquakes that had occurred in each bin above a given magnitude over a time interval called the training period. The second method utilizes the cumulative well production data within each bin. Earthquakes that occurred within an alert zone in the retrospective forecast period contribute to the hit rate, while alert zones that did not have an earthquake occur within them in the forecast period contribute to the false alarm rate. In the resulting analysis the hit rate and false alarm rate are determined after optimizing and modifying the initial parameters using the receiver operating characteristic diagram. It is found that when modifying the cell size and threshold magnitude parameters within various training periods, hit and false alarm rates are obtained for specific regions in Western Canada using both recent seismicity and cumulative well production data. Certain areas are thus shown to be more prone to potential larger earthquakes based on both datasets. This has implications for the potential link between oil and gas production and induced seismicity observed in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin.

A landslide susceptibility prediction on a sample slope in Kathmandu Nepal associated with the 2015's Gorkha Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubota, Tetsuya; Prasad Paudel, Prem

2016-04-01

In 2013, some landslides induced by heavy rainfalls occurred in southern part of Kathmandu, Nepal which is located southern suburb of Kathmandu, the capital. These landslide slopes hit by the strong Gorkha Earthquake in April 2015 and seemed to destabilize again. Hereby, to clarify their susceptibility of landslide in the earthquake, one of these landslide slopes was analyzed its slope stability by CSSDP (Critical Slip Surface analysis by Dynamic Programming based on limit equilibrium method, especially Janbu method) against slope failure with various seismic acceleration observed around Kathmandu in the Gorkha Earthquake. The CSSDP can detect the landslide slip surface which has minimum Fs (factor of safety) automatically using dynamic programming theory. The geology in this area mainly consists of fragile schist and it is prone to landslide occurrence. Field survey was conducted to obtain topological data such as ground surface and slip surface cross section. Soil parameters obtained by geotechnical tests with field sampling were applied. Consequently, the slope has distinctive characteristics followings in terms of slope stability: (1) With heavy rainfall, it collapsed and had a factor of safety Fs <1.0 (0.654 or more). (2) With seismic acceleration of 0.15G (147gal) observed around Kathmandu, it has Fs=1.34. (3) With possible local seismic acceleration of 0.35G (343gal) estimated at Kathmandu, it has Fs=0.989. If it were very shallow landslide and covered with cedars, it could have Fs =1.055 due to root reinforcement effect to the soil strength. (4) Without seismic acceleration and with no rainfall condition, it has Fs=1.75. These results can explain the real landslide occurrence in this area with the maximum seismic acceleration estimated as 0.15G in the vicinity of Kathmandu by the Gorkha Earthquake. Therefore, these results indicate landslide susceptibility of the slopes in this area with strong earthquake. In this situation, it is possible to predict efficiently the landslide susceptibility in earthquakes in this area by this method.

The Human Impact of Earthquakes: a Historical Review of Events 1980-2009 and Systematic Literature Review

PubMed Central

Doocy, Shannon; Daniels, Amy; Packer, Catherine; Dick, Anna; Kirsch, Thomas D.

2013-01-01

Introduction. Population growth and increasing urbanization in earthquake-prone areas suggest that earthquake impacts on human populations will increase in the coming decades. Recent large earthquakes affecting large populations in Japan, Haiti, Chile and New Zealand are evidence of this trend and also illustrate significant variations in outcomes such damage and mortality levels. The objectives of this review were to describe the impact of earthquakes on human populations in terms of mortality, injury and displacement and, to the extent possible, identify risk factors associated with these outcomes. This is one of five reviews on the human impact of natural disasters. Methods. Data on the impact of earthquakes were compiled using two methods, a historical review from 1980 to mid 2009 of earthquake events from multiple databases and a systematic literature review of publications, ending in October 2012. Analysis included descriptive statistics and bivariate tests for associations between earthquake mortality and characteristics using STATA 11. Findings. From 1980 through 2009, there were a total of 372,634 deaths (range 314,634-412,599), 995,219 injuries (range: 845,345-1,145,093), and more than 61 million people affected by earthquakes, and mortality was greatest in Asia. Inconsistent reporting across data sources suggests that the numbers injured and affected are likely underestimates. Findings from a systematic review of the literature indicate that the primary cause of earthquake-related death was trauma due to building collapse and, the very young and the elderly were at increased mortality risk, while gender was not consistently associated with mortality risk. Conclusions. Strategies to mitigate the impact of future earthquakes should include improvements to the built environment and a focus on populations most vulnerable to mortality and injury. PMID:23857161

M9.1 Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake Tsunami Inundation Modeling of Sequim Bay and Lopez Island, Washington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, C. J.; Cakir, R.; Walsh, T. J.; LeVeque, R. J.; Adams, L. M.; Gonzalez, F. I.

2016-12-01

The Strait of Juan de Fuca and adjacent coastal zone are prone to tsunami hazard triggered by a M9+ Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake. In addition to the numerous tsunami deposits observed on the outer coast, there is geological evidence for nine sandy or muddy tsunami layers deposited in last 2500-year period in a tidal marsh area of Discovery Bay, Northeastern Olympic Peninsula, Washington (Williams et al., 2005, The Holocene, v. 15, no. 1). Thus, it is important to assess the potential tsunami hazard due to a future M9+ CSZ earthquake event that may impact local communities in and near Discovery Bay area . In this study, we conducted tsunami simulations using Clawpack-GeoClaw and the earthquake source scenario M9.1 CSZ, designated as "L1" (Witter et al., 2011, Oregon DOGAMI Special Paper 43). A fine-resolution (1/3 arc-second) NOAA digital elevation model (DEM) was used to provide a high resolution tsunami inundation simulation in Sequim Bay (about 5 miles west of Discovery Bay), Clallam county and Lopez Island, San Juan County. The test gauges, set around major infrastructures and properties, provided estimates of wave height, wave velocity, and wave arrival time. The results will contribute to further improving mitigation planning and emergency response efforts of the counties.

An assessment of seismic monitoring in the United States; requirement for an Advanced National Seismic System

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1999-01-01

This report assesses the status, needs, and associated costs of seismic monitoring in the United States. It sets down the requirement for an effective, national seismic monitoring strategy and an advanced system linking national, regional, and urban monitoring networks. Modernized seismic monitoring can provide alerts of imminent strong earthquake shaking; rapid assessment of distribution and severity of earthquake shaking (for use in emergency response); warnings of a possible tsunami from an offshore earthquake; warnings of volcanic eruptions; information for correctly characterizing earthquake hazards and for improving building codes; and data on response of buildings and structures during earthquakes, for safe, cost-effective design, engineering, and construction practices in earthquake-prone regions.

Linking giant earthquakes with the subduction of oceanic fracture zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Landgrebe, T. C.; Müller, R. D.; EathByte Group

2011-12-01

Giant subduction earthquakes are known to occur in areas not previously identified as prone to high seismic risk. This highlights the need to better identify subduction zone segments potentially dominated by relatively long (up to 1000 years and more) recurrence times of giant earthquakes. Global digital data sets represent a promising source of information for a multi-dimensional earthquake hazard analysis. We combine the NGDC global Significant Earthquakes database with a global strain rate map, gridded ages of the ocean floor, and a recently produced digital data set for oceanic fracture zones, major aseismic ridges and volcanic chains to investigate the association of earthquakes as a function of magnitude with age of the downgoing slab and convergence rates. We use a so-called Top-N recommendation method, a technology originally developed to search, sort, classify, and filter very large and often statistically skewed data sets on the internet, to analyse the association of subduction earthquakes sorted by magnitude with key parameters. The Top-N analysis is used to progressively assess how strongly particular "tectonic niche" locations (e.g. locations along subduction zones intersected with aseismic ridges or volcanic chains) are associated with sets of earthquakes in sorted order in a given magnitude range. As the total number N of sorted earthquakes is increased, by progressively including smaller-magnitude events, the so-called recall is computed, defined as the number of Top-N earthquakes associated with particular target areas divided by N. The resultant statistical measure represents an intuitive description of the effectiveness of a given set of parameters to account for the location of significant earthquakes on record. We use this method to show that the occurrence of great (magnitude ≥ 8) earthquakes on overriding plate segments is strongly biased towards intersections of oceanic fracture zones with subduction zones. These intersection regions are linked with 8 of the largest 10, 18 of the largest 25, about half of the largest 100 subduction earthquakes, as well as with the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Subduction zone intersections with volcanic chains are not found to be associated with a significantly elevated risk for great earthquakes globally. This difference likely arises from subducting fracture zone ridges leading to stronger seismic coupling than subducting volcanic chains.

The wicked problem of earthquake hazard in developing countries: the example of Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steckler, M. S.; Akhter, S. H.; Stein, S.; Seeber, L.

2017-12-01

Many developing nations in earthquake-prone areas confront a tough problem: how much of their limited resources to use mitigating earthquake hazards? This decision is difficult because it is unclear when an infrequent major earthquake may happen, how big it could be, and how much harm it may cause. This issue faces nations with profound immediate needs and ongoing rapid urbanization. Earthquake hazard mitigation in Bangladesh is a wicked problem. It is the world's most densely populated nation, with 160 million people in an area the size of Iowa. Complex geology and sparse data make assessing a possibly-large earthquake hazard difficult. Hence it is hard to decide how much of the limited resources available should be used for earthquake hazard mitigation, given other more immediate needs. Per capita GDP is $1200, so Bangladesh is committed to economic growth and resources are needed to address many critical challenges and hazards. In their subtropical environment, rural Bangladeshis traditionally relied on modest mud or bamboo homes. Their rapidly growing, crowded capital, Dhaka, is filled with multistory concrete buildings likely to be vulnerable to earthquakes. The risk is compounded by the potential collapse of services and accessibility after a major temblor. However, extensive construction as the population shifts from rural to urban provides opportunity for earthquake-risk reduction. While this situation seems daunting, it is not hopeless. Robust risk management is practical, even for developing nations. It involves recognizing uncertainties and developing policies that should give a reasonable outcome for a range of the possible hazard and loss scenarios. Over decades, Bangladesh has achieved a thousandfold reduction in risk from tropical cyclones by building shelters and setting up a warning system. Similar efforts are underway for earthquakes. Smart investments can be very effective, even if modest. Hence, we suggest strategies consistent with high uncertainty and limited resources. The most crucial steps are enforcing building codes and public education on earthquake risk reduction. Requiring moderate investments that increases building costs by 5-10% can substantially improve safety and is a cost effective strategy. Over time, natural building turnover will make communities more resilient.

The effect of earthquake on architecture geometry with non-parallel system irregularity configuration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teddy, Livian; Hardiman, Gagoek; Nuroji; Tudjono, Sri

2017-12-01

Indonesia is an area prone to earthquake that may cause casualties and damage to buildings. The fatalities or the injured are not largely caused by the earthquake, but by building collapse. The collapse of the building is resulted from the building behaviour against the earthquake, and it depends on many factors, such as architectural design, geometry configuration of structural elements in horizontal and vertical plans, earthquake zone, geographical location (distance to earthquake center), soil type, material quality, and construction quality. One of the geometry configurations that may lead to the collapse of the building is irregular configuration of non-parallel system. In accordance with FEMA-451B, irregular configuration in non-parallel system is defined to have existed if the vertical lateral force-retaining elements are neither parallel nor symmetric with main orthogonal axes of the earthquake-retaining axis system. Such configuration may lead to torque, diagonal translation and local damage to buildings. It does not mean that non-parallel irregular configuration should not be formed on architectural design; however the designer must know the consequence of earthquake behaviour against buildings with irregular configuration of non-parallel system. The present research has the objective to identify earthquake behaviour in architectural geometry with irregular configuration of non-parallel system. The present research was quantitative with simulation experimental method. It consisted of 5 models, where architectural data and model structure data were inputted and analyzed using the software SAP2000 in order to find out its performance, and ETAB2015 to determine the eccentricity occurred. The output of the software analysis was tabulated, graphed, compared and analyzed with relevant theories. For areas of strong earthquake zones, avoid designing buildings which wholly form irregular configuration of non-parallel system. If it is inevitable to design a building with building parts containing irregular configuration of non-parallel system, make it more rigid by forming a triangle module, and use the formula.A good collaboration is needed between architects and structural experts in creating earthquake architecture.

Chest injuries associated with earthquakes: an analysis of injuries sustained during the 2008 Wen-Chuan earthquake in China.

PubMed

Hu, Jia; Guo, Ying-Qiang; Zhang, Er-Yong; Tan, Jin; Shi, Ying-Kang

2010-08-01

The goal of this study was to analyze the patterns, therapeutic modalities, and short-term outcomes of patients with chest injuries in the aftermath of the Wen-Chuan earthquake, which occurred on May 12, 2008 and registered 8.0 on the Richter scale. Of the 1522 patients who were referred to the West China Hospital of Sichuan University from May 12 to May 27, 169 patients (11.1%) had suffered major chest injuries. The type of injury, the presence of infection, Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS 2005), New Injury Severity Score (NISS), treatment, and short-term outcome were all documented for each case. Isolated chest injuries were diagnosed in 129 patients (76.3%), while multiple injuries with a major chest trauma were diagnosed in 40 patients (23.7%). The mean AIS and the median NISS of the hospitalized patients with chest injuries were 2.5 and 13, respectively. The mortality rate was 3.0% (5 patients). Most of the chest injuries were classified as minor to moderate trauma; however, coexistent multiple injuries and subsequent infection should be carefully considered in medical response strategies. Coordinated efforts among emergency medical support groups and prior training in earthquake preparedness and rescue in earthquake-prone areas are therefore necessary for efficient evacuation and treatment of catastrophic casualties.

High tsunami frequency as a result of combined strike-slip faulting and coastal landslides

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hornbach, Matthew J.; Braudy, Nicole; Briggs, Richard W.; Cormier, Marie-Helene; Davis, Marcy B.; Diebold, John B.; Dieudonne, Nicole; Douilly, Roby; Frohlich, Cliff; Gulick, Sean P.S.; Johnson, Harold E.; Mann, Paul; McHugh, Cecilia; Ryan-Mishkin, Katherine; Prentice, Carol S.; Seeber, Leonardo; Sorlien, Christopher C.; Steckler, Michael S.; Symithe, Steeve Julien; Taylor, Frederick W.; Templeton, John

2010-01-01

Earthquakes on strike-slip faults can produce devastating natural hazards. However, because they consist predominantly of lateral motion, these faults are rarely associated with significant uplift or tsunami generation. And although submarine slides can generate tsunami, only a few per cent of all tsunami are believed to be triggered in this way. The 12 January Mw 7.0 Haiti earthquake exhibited primarily strike-slip motion but nevertheless generated a tsunami. Here we present data from a comprehensive field survey that covered the onshore and offshore area around the epicentre to document that modest uplift together with slope failure caused tsunamigenesis. Submarine landslides caused the most severe tsunami locally. Our analysis suggests that slide-generated tsunami occur an order-of-magnitude more frequently along the Gonave microplate than global estimates predict. Uplift was generated because of the earthquake's location, where the Caribbean and Gonave microplates collide obliquely. The earthquake also caused liquefaction at several river deltas that prograde rapidly and are prone to failure. We conclude that coastal strike-slip fault systems such as the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault produce relief conducive to rapid sedimentation, erosion and slope failure, so that even modest predominantly strike-slip earthquakes can cause potentially catastrophic slide-generated tsunami - a risk that is underestimated at present.

High tsunami frequency as a result of combined strike-slip faulting and coastal landslides

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hornbach, M.J.; Braudy, N.; Briggs, R.W.; Cormier, M.-H.; Davis, M.B.; Diebold, J.B.; Dieudonne, N.; Douilly, R.; Frohlich, C.; Gulick, S.P.S.; Johnson, H. E.; Mann, P.; McHugh, C.; Ryan-Mishkin, K.; Prentice, C.S.; Seeber, L.; Sorlien, C.C.; Steckler, M.S.; Symithe, S.J.; Taylor, F.W.; Templeton, J.

2010-01-01

Earthquakes on strike-slip faults can produce devastating natural hazards. However, because they consist predominantly of lateral motion, these faults are rarely associated with significant uplift or tsunami generation. And although submarine slides can generate tsunami, only a few per cent of all tsunami are believed to be triggered in this way. The 12 January Mw 7.0 Haiti earthquake exhibited primarily strike-slip motion but nevertheless generated a tsunami. Here we present data from a comprehensive field survey that covered the onshore and offshore area around the epicentre to document that modest uplift together with slope failure caused tsunamigenesis. Submarine landslides caused the most severe tsunami locally. Our analysis suggests that slide-generated tsunami occur an order-of-magnitude more frequently along the Gonave microplate than global estimates predict. Uplift was generated because of the earthquake?s location, where the Caribbean and Gonave microplates collide obliquely. The earthquake also caused liquefaction at several river deltas that prograde rapidly and are prone to failure. We conclude that coastal strike-slip fault systems such as the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault produce relief conducive to rapid sedimentation, erosion and slope failure, so that even modest predominantly strike-slip earthquakes can cause potentially catastrophic slide-generated tsunamig-a risk that is underestimated at present. ?? 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

A Possible Paradigm for the Mitigation of the Adverse Impacts of Natural Hazards in the Developing Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aswathanarayana, U.

2001-05-01

The proneness of a country or region to a given natural hazard depends upon its geographical location, physiography, geological and structural setting, landuse/landcover situation, and biophysical and socioeconomic environments (e.g. cyclones and floods in Bangladesh, earthquakes in Turkey, drought in Sub-Saharan Africa). While the natural hazards themselves cannot be prevented, it is possible to mitigate their adverse effects, by a knowledge-based, environmentally-sustainable approach, involving the stakeholder communities: (i) by being prepared: on the basis of the understanding of the land conditions which are prone to a given hazard and the processes which could culminate in damage to life and property (e.g. planting of dense-rooted vegetation belts to protect against landslides in the earthquake-prone areas), (ii) by avoiding improper anthropogenic activities that may exacerbate a hazard (e.g. deforestation accentuating the floods and droughts), and (iii) by putting a hazard to a beneficial use, where possible (groundwater recharging of flood waters), etc. Mitigation strategies need to be custom-made for each country/region by integrating the biophysical and socioeconomic components. The proposed paradigm is illustrated in respect of Extreme Weather Events (EWEs), which is based on the adoption of three approaches: (i) Typology approach, involving the interpretation of remotely sensed data, to predict (say) temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation, (ii) "black box" approach, whereby the potential environmental consequences of an EWE are projected on the basis of previously known case histories, and (iii) Information Technology approach, to translate advanced technical information in the form of "virtual" do-it-yourself steps understandable to lay public.

Earthquakes: Risk, Monitoring, Notification, and Research

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-06-19

Washington, Oregon, and Hawaii . The Rocky Mountain region, a portion of the central United States known as the New Madrid Seismic Zone, and portions...California, Washington, Oregon, and Alaska and Hawaii . Alaska is the most earthquake-prone state, experiencing a magnitude 7 earthquake1 almost every...Oakland, CA $349 23 Las Vegas, NV $28 4 San Francisco, CA $346 24 Anchorage, AK $25 5 San Jose, CA $243 25 Boston, MA $23 6 Orange, CA $214 26 Hilo , HI $20

RST (Robust Satellite Techniques) analysis for monitoring earth emitted radiation in seismically active area of California (US): a long term (2006-2011) analysis of GOES-W/IMAGER thermal data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tramutoli, V.; Armandi, B.; Filizzola, C.; Genzano, N.; Lisi, M.; Paciello, R.; Pergola, N.

2014-12-01

More than ten years of applications of the RST (Robust Satellite Techniques) methodology for monitoring earthquake prone area by using satellite TIR(Thermal InfraRed) data, have shown the ability of this approach to discern anomalous TIR signals possibly associated to seismic activity from normal fluctuations of Earth's thermal emission related to other causes independent on the earthquake occurrence. The RST approach was already tested in the case of tens of earthquakes occurred in different continents (Europe, Asia, America and Africa), in various geo-tectonic settings (compressive, extensional and transcurrent) and with a wide range of magnitudes (from 4.0 to 7.9), by analyzing time series of TIR images acquired by sensors on board of polar (like NOAA/AVHRR, EOS/MODIS) and geostationary satellites (like MFG/MVIRI, MSG/SEVIRI, GOES/IMAGER). In addition RST method has been independently tested by several researchers around the world as well as in the framework of several projects funded by different national space agencies (like the Italian ASI, the U.S. NASA and the German DLR) and recently during the EC-FP7 projectPRE-EARTHQUAKES (www.pre-earthquakes.org),which was devoted to study the earthquake precursors using satellite techniques. This paper will show the results of RST analysis on 6 years (2006-2011)of TIR satellite record collected by GOES-W/IMAGER over Southern part United State (California).Results will be discussed particularly in the prospective of an integrated approach devoted to systematically collectand analyze in real-time, independent observations for a time-Dependent Assessment of Seismic Hazard (t-DASH).

Multi-Sensor Observations of Earthquake Related Atmospheric Signals over Major Geohazard Validation Sites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ouzounov, D.; Pulinets, S.; Davindenko, D.; Hattori, K.; Kafatos, M.; Taylor, P.

2012-01-01

We are conducting a scientific validation study involving multi-sensor observations in our investigation of phenomena preceding major earthquakes. Our approach is based on a systematic analysis of several atmospheric and environmental parameters, which we found, are associated with the earthquakes, namely: thermal infrared radiation, outgoing long-wavelength radiation, ionospheric electron density, and atmospheric temperature and humidity. For first time we applied this approach to selected GEOSS sites prone to earthquakes or volcanoes. This provides a new opportunity to cross validate our results with the dense networks of in-situ and space measurements. We investigated two different seismic aspects, first the sites with recent large earthquakes, viz.- Tohoku-oki (M9, 2011, Japan) and Emilia region (M5.9, 2012,N. Italy). Our retrospective analysis of satellite data has shown the presence of anomalies in the atmosphere. Second, we did a retrospective analysis to check the re-occurrence of similar anomalous behavior in atmosphere/ionosphere over three regions with distinct geological settings and high seismicity: Taiwan, Japan and Kamchatka, which include 40 major earthquakes (M>5.9) for the period of 2005-2009. We found anomalous behavior before all of these events with no false negatives; false positives were less then 10%. Our initial results suggest that multi-instrument space-borne and ground observations show a systematic appearance of atmospheric anomalies near the epicentral area that could be explained by a coupling between the observed physical parameters and earthquake preparation processes.

How does Subduction Interface Roughness influence Megathrust Earthquakes: Insights from Natural Data and Analogue Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Rijsingen, E.; Lallemand, S.; Peyret, M.; Corbi, F.; Funiciello, F.; Arcay, D.; Heuret, A.

2017-12-01

The role of subducting oceanic features on the seismogenic behavior of subduction zones has been increasingly addressed over the past years, although their exact relationship remains unclear. Do features like seamounts, fracture zones or submarine ridges act as barriers, prohibiting ruptures to propagate, or do they initiate megathrust earthquakes instead? With this question in mind, we aim to better understand the influence of subduction interface roughness on the location of an earthquake's hypocenter, rupture area and seismic asperity. Following the work on compiling a dual-wavelength subduction interface roughness (SubRough) database, we used this roughness proxy for a global comparison with large subduction earthquakes (MW > 7.5), which occurred since 1900 (SubQuake, new catalogue). We made a quantitative comparison between the earthquake data on the landward side of the trench and the roughness proxy on the seaward side, taking into account the most appropriate direction of roughness extrapolation. Main results show that areas with low roughness at long wavelengths (i.e. 80-100 km) are more prone to host large- to mega-earthquakes. In addition to this natural data study, we perform analogue experiments, which allow us to investigate the role subducting oceanic features play over the course of multiple seismic cycles. The experimental setup consists of a gelatin wedge and an underthrusting rigid aluminum plate (i.e. the analogues of the overriding and downgoing plates, respectively). By adding scaled 3D-printed topographic features (e.g. seamounts) on the downgoing plate, we are able to accurately monitor the initiation and propagation of ruptures with respect to the subducting features. Here we show the results of our natural data study, some preliminary results of the analogue models and our first conclusions on how the subduction interface roughness may influence the seismogenic potential of an area.

Geological structure analysis in Central Java using travel time tomography technique of S waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palupi, I. R.; Raharjo, W.; Nurdian, S. W.; Giamboro, W. S.; Santoso, A.

2016-11-01

Java is one of the islands in Indonesia that is prone to the earthquakes, in south of Java, there is the Australian Plate move to the Java island and press with perpendicular direction. This plate movement formed subduction zone and cause earthquakes. The earthquake is the release of energy due to the sudden movement of the plates. When an earthquake occurs, the energy is released and record by seismometers in the waveform. The first wave recorded is called the P waves (primary) and the next wave is called S waves (secondary). Both of these waves have different characteristics in terms of propagation and direction of movement. S wave is composed of waves of Rayleigh and Love waves, with each direction of movement of the vertical and horizontal, subsurface imaging by using S wave tomography technique can describe the type of the S wave through the medium. The variation of wave velocity under Central Java (esearch area) is ranging from -10% to 10% at the depth of 20, 30 and 40 km, the velocity decrease with the depth increase. Moho discontinuity is lies in the depth of 32 km under the crust, it is indicates there is strong heterogenity in Moho.

Living with earthquakes - development and usage of earthquake-resistant construction methods in European and Asian Antiquity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kázmér, Miklós; Major, Balázs; Hariyadi, Agus; Pramumijoyo, Subagyo; Ditto Haryana, Yohanes

2010-05-01

Earthquakes are among the most horrible events of nature due to unexpected occurrence, for which no spiritual means are available for protection. The only way of preserving life and property is applying earthquake-resistant construction methods. Ancient Greek architects of public buildings applied steel clamps embedded in lead casing to hold together columns and masonry walls during frequent earthquakes in the Aegean region. Elastic steel provided strength, while plastic lead casing absorbed minor shifts of blocks without fracturing rigid stone. Romans invented concrete and built all sizes of buildings as a single, unflexible unit. Masonry surrounding and decorating concrete core of the wall did not bear load. Concrete resisted minor shaking, yielding only to forces higher than fracture limits. Roman building traditions survived the Dark Ages and 12th century Crusader castles erected in earthquake-prone Syria survive until today in reasonably good condition. Concrete and steel clamping persisted side-by-side in the Roman Empire. Concrete was used for cheap construction as compared to building of masonry. Applying lead-encased steel increased costs, and was avoided whenever possible. Columns of the various forums in Italian Pompeii mostly lack steel fittings despite situated in well-known earthquake-prone area. Whether frequent recurrence of earthquakes in the Naples region was known to inhabitants of Pompeii might be a matter of debate. Seemingly the shock of the AD 62 earthquake was not enough to apply well-known protective engineering methods throughout the reconstruction of the city before the AD 79 volcanic catastrophe. An independent engineering tradition developed on the island of Java (Indonesia). The mortar-less construction technique of 8-9th century Hindu masonry shrines around Yogyakarta would allow scattering of blocks during earthquakes. To prevent dilapidation an intricate mortise-and-tenon system was carved into adjacent faces of blocks. Only the outermost layer was treated this way, the core of the shrines was made of simple rectangular blocks. The system resisted both in-plane and out-of-plane shaking quite well, as proven by survival of many shrines for more than a millennium, and by fracturing of blocks instead of displacement during the 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake. Systematic use or disuse of known earthquake-resistant techniques in any one society depends on the perception of earthquake risk and on available financial resources. Earthquake-resistant construction practice is significantly more expensive than regular construction. Perception is influenced mostly by short individual and longer social memory. If earthquake recurrence time is longer than the preservation of social memory, if damaging quakes fade into the past, societies commit the same construction mistakes again and again. Length of the memory is possibly about a generation's lifetime. Events occurring less frequently than 25-30 years can be readily forgotten, and the risk of recurrence considered as negligible, not worth the costs of safe construction practices. (Example of recurring flash floods in Hungary.) Frequent earthquakes maintain safe construction practices, like the Java masonry technique throughout at least two centuries, and like the Fachwerk tradition on Modern Aegean Samos throughout 500 years of political and technological development. (OTKA K67583)

Seismicity and velocity structures along the south-Alpine thrust front of the Venetian Alps (NE-Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anselmi, M.; Govoni, A.; De Gori, P.; Chiarabba, C.

2011-12-01

In this paper we show the seismicity and velocity structure of a segment of the Alpine retro-belt front along the continental collision margin of the Venetian Alps (NE Italy). Our goal is to gain insight on the buried structures and deep fault geometry in a "silent" area, i.e., an area with poor instrumental seismicity but high potential for future earthquakes, as indicated by historical earthquakes (1695 Me = 6.7 Asolo and 1936 Ms = 5.8 Bosco del Cansiglio). Local earthquakes recorded by a dense temporary seismic network are used to compute 3-D Vp and Vp/Vs tomographic images, yielding well resolved images of the upper crust underneath the south-Alpine front. We show the presence of two main distinct high Vp S-verging thrust units, the innermost coincides with the piedmont hill and the outermost is buried under a thick pile of sediments in the Po plain. Background seismicity and Vp/Vs anomalies, interpreted as cracked fluid-filled volumes, suggest that the NE portion of the outermost blind thrust and its oblique/lateral ramps may be a zone of high fluid pressure prone to future earthquakes. Three-dimensional focal mechanisms show compressive and transpressive solutions, in agreement with the tectonic setting, stress field maps and geodetic observations. The bulk of the microseismicity is clustered in two different areas, both in correspondence of inherited lateral ramps of the thrust system. Tomographic images highlight the influence of the paleogeographic setting in the tectonic style and seismic activity of the region.

The threat of silent earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cervelli, Peter

2004-01-01

Not all earthquakes shake the ground. The so-called silent types are forcing scientists to rethink their understanding of the way quake-prone faults behave. In rare instances, silent earthquakes that occur along the flakes of seaside volcanoes may cascade into monstrous landslides that crash into the sea and trigger towering tsunamis. Silent earthquakes that take place within fault zones created by one tectonic plate diving under another may increase the chance of ground-shaking shocks. In other locations, however, silent slip may decrease the likelihood of destructive quakes, because they release stress along faults that might otherwise seem ready to snap.

Depression and anxiety among elderly earthquake survivors in China.

PubMed

Liang, Ying

2017-12-01

This study investigated depression and anxiety among Chinese elderly earthquake survivors, addressing relevant correlations. We sampled one earthquake-prone city, utilising the Geriatric Depression Scale and Beck Anxiety Inventory. In addition, explorative factor analysis and structural equation model methods were used. Results indicated elderly earthquake survivors exhibited symptoms of moderate depression and anxiety; depression and anxiety are highly positively correlated. The overlap between these two psychological problems may be due to subjective fear and motoric dimensions; subjective fear and motoric dimensions of Beck Anxiety Inventory are more strongly related to Geriatric Depression Scale domains. The two scales exhibit high reliability and validity.

Hazus® estimated annualized earthquake losses for the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, Kishor; Bausch, Doug; Rozelle, Jesse; Holub, John; McGowan, Sean

2017-01-01

Large earthquakes can cause social and economic disruption that can be unprecedented to any given community, and the full recovery from these impacts may or may not always be achievable. In the United States (U.S.), the 1994 M6.7 Northridge earthquake in California remains the third costliest disaster in U.S. history; and it was one of the most expensive disasters for the federal government. Internationally, earthquakes in the last decade alone have claimed tens of thousands of lives and caused hundreds of billions of dollars of economic impact throughout the globe (~90 billion U.S. dollars (USD) from 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan China, ~20 billion USD from 2010 M8.8 Maule earthquake in Chile, ~220 billion USD from 2011 M9.0 Tohoku Japan earthquake, ~25 billion USD from 2011 M6.3 Christchurch New Zealand, and ~22 billion USD from 2016 M7.0 Kumamoto Japan). Recent earthquakes show a pattern of steadily increasing damages and losses that are primarily due to three key factors: (1) significant growth in earthquake-prone urban areas, (2) vulnerability of the older building stock, including poorly engineered non-ductile concrete buildings, and (3) an increased interdependency in terms of supply and demand for the businesses that operate among different parts of the world. In the United States, earthquake risk continues to grow with increased exposure of population and development even though the earthquake hazard has remained relatively stable except for the regions of induced seismic activity. Understanding the seismic hazard requires studying earthquake characteristics and locales in which they occur, while understanding the risk requires an assessment of the potential damage from earthquake shaking to the built environment and to the welfare of people—especially in high-risk areas. Estimating the varying degree of earthquake risk throughout the United States is critical for informed decision-making on mitigation policies, priorities, strategies, and funding levels in the public and private sectors. For example, potential losses to new buildings may be reduced by proper land-use planning, applying most current seismic design codes and using new technologies and specialized construction techniques. However, decisions to spend money on any of those solutions require benefit and cost comparison against the perceived risk. Previous versions of the FEMA 366 studies are the only nationally accepted criteria and methodology for comparing seismic risk across regions.

The 40 anniversary of the 1976 Friuli earthquake: a look back for empowering the next generation to the reduction of seismic risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saraò, Angela; Barnaba, Carla; Peruzza, Laura

2016-04-01

On 6 May 1976 an Ms=6.5 earthquake struck the Friuli area (NE Italy), causing about 1,000 casualties, and widespread destruction. Such event is the largest so far recorded in Northern Italy. After 40 years, the memory of a devastating earthquake remains in the urbanization, and in the people that lived that dreadful experience. However, the memories tend to vanish with the quake survivors demise and the celebration of the anniversary become a good opportunity to refresh the earthquake history, and the awareness of living in a seismic prone area. As seismologists, we believe that the seismic risk reduction starts from the education of the next generation. For this reason, we decided to celebrate the 40 anniversary planning a special educational campaign, mainly devoted to the schools and the young people, but it will give us the opportunity to check and, if necessary to raise, the level of seismic awareness of the local communities. The activities started on May 2015, with labs and lessons held in some schools, and the creation of a blog (https://versoi40anni.wordpress.com) to collect news, photos, video and all the materials related to the campaign. From February to May 2016, one day per week, we will open our seismological lab to the school visits, so that students can meet the seismologists, and we will cooperate with local science museums to enlarge the training offers on the earthquake topics. By continuing the efforts of our previous educational projects, the students of a school located in Gemona del Friuli, one of the small town destroyed by the 1976 earthquake, will be deeply involved in experimental activities, like seismic noise measurements for microzonation studies, so to be an active part of the seismic mitigation process. This and some other activities developed for the celebration of the 40 anniversary of the Friuli earthquake will be illustrated in this presentation.

Improving the RST Approach for Earthquake Prone Areas Monitoring: Results of Correlation Analysis among Significant Sequences of TIR Anomalies and Earthquakes (M>4) occurred in Italy during 2004-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tramutoli, V.; Coviello, I.; Filizzola, C.; Genzano, N.; Lisi, M.; Paciello, R.; Pergola, N.

2015-12-01

Looking toward the assessment of a multi-parametric system for dynamically updating seismic hazard estimates and earthquake short term (from days to weeks) forecast, a preliminary step is to identify those parameters (chemical, physical, biological, etc.) whose anomalous variations can be, to some extent, associated to the complex process of preparation of a big earthquake. Among the different parameters, the fluctuations of Earth's thermally emitted radiation, as measured by sensors on board of satellite system operating in the Thermal Infra-Red (TIR) spectral range, have been proposed since long time as potential earthquake precursors. Since 2001, a general approach called Robust Satellite Techniques (RST) has been used to discriminate anomalous thermal signals, possibly associated to seismic activity from normal fluctuations of Earth's thermal emission related to other causes (e.g. meteorological) independent on the earthquake occurrence. Thanks to its full exportability on different satellite packages, RST has been implemented on TIR images acquired by polar (e.g. NOAA-AVHRR, EOS-MODIS) and geostationary (e.g. MSG-SEVIRI, NOAA-GOES/W, GMS-5/VISSR) satellite sensors, in order to verify the presence (or absence) of TIR anomalies in presence (absence) of earthquakes (with M>4) in different seismogenic areas around the world (e.g. Italy, Turkey, Greece, California, Taiwan, etc.).In this paper, a refined RST (Robust Satellite Techniques) data analysis approach and RETIRA (Robust Estimator of TIR Anomalies) index were used to identify Significant Sequences of TIR Anomalies (SSTAs) during eleven years (from May 2004 to December 2014) of TIR satellite records, collected over Italy by the geostationary satellite sensor MSG-SEVIRI. On the basis of specific validation rules (mainly based on physical models and results obtained by applying RST approach to several earthquakes all around the world) the level of space-time correlation among SSTAs and earthquakes (with M≥4) occurrence has been evaluated. Achieved results will be discussed, also in the framework of a multi-parametric approach to time-Dependent Assessment of Seismic Hazard (t-DASH).

Damage from the El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake, April 2010: Why society cannot afford to ignore seismic risks to agricultural regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenner, H. D.; Mathieson, E. L.; Okubo, S.; Anderson, R.; Rodriguez C., M. A.

2010-12-01

The M7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake of April 4, 2010 in Mexico’s Baja California caused extensive damage to the agricultural area of Mexicali Valley. The damage included wide-spread liquefaction and lateral spreading which destroyed or damaged irrigation canals. Without water, wheat, alfalfa, and other crops were lost. Fields were cut by fissures and partially buried by massive sand blows. Regional tilting from the earthquake was a serious issue for the gravity-controlled irrigation system. Ruptured canals and groundwater from sand blows flooded fields, roads, and towns. Flooding further damaged crops and brought contamination with it. Fissures and scarps through farm communities cracked buildings; ruptured water, sewer, and other pipelines; and made roads temporarily difficult to pass. Economically, farmers, seasonal farm workers, and agricultural suppliers were affected; reducing their ability to consume the goods and services of businesses unrelated to agriculture. Similar damage was observed in earlier earthquakes over the past 100 years. Society quickly forgets how the earth responds to strong shaking. We hope to provide a vivid portrait of this agricultural disaster so that other farming communities prone to strong seismic shaking may visualize what can happen from their own inevitable future earthquake. Fissure and sand blows southeast of Cucapah, Baja California, April 16, 2010. Heavily damaged irrigation canal northwest of Zacamoto, Baja California, April 15, 2010.

Psychosocial Needs Assessment among Earthquake Survivors in Lorestan Province with an Emphasis on the Vulnerable Groups

PubMed Central

Forouzan, A.; Eftekhari, M. Baradaran; Falahat, K.; Dejman, M.; Heidari, N.; Habibi, E.

2013-01-01

Introduction: Iran is one of the ten most earthquake prone countries in the world. Earthquakes not only cause new psychological needs among the population but particularly so when one considers vulnerable groups. This in - depth study was conducted with the aim of assessing psychosocial needs six months after an earthquake happened in the west of the county in Lorestan province. Methods: This is a qualitative study using focus group discussion that focuses mainly on the vulnerable groups (women, children, elderly and disabled people) after an earthquake in Boz-azna; a village in Lorestan province in western part of Iran. Findings: Results of the psychosocial assessment indicated feelings of anxiety and worries in four vulnerable groups. Horror, hyper-excitement, avoidance and disturbing thoughts were observed in all groups with the exception of the elderly. Educational failures, loneliness and isolation were highlighted in children. All groups encountered socio-economic needs that included loss of assets and sense of insecurity and also reproductive problems were reported in women's group. Discussion and Conclusion: Modification of a protocol on psychosocial support considering the context of the rural and urban areas with emphasis on the specific needs of the vulnerable groups is an appropriate strategy in crisis management. It seems that appropriate public awareness regarding assistance programs can be effective in reducing stress and needs of disaster survivors. PMID:23777724

Estimating the Locations of Past and Future Large Earthquake Ruptures using Recent M4 and Greater Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebel, J.; Chambers, D. W.

2017-12-01

Although most aftershock activity dies away within months or a few years of a mainshock, there is evidence that aftershocks still occur decades or even centuries after mainshocks, particularly in areas of low background seismicity such as stable continental regions. There also is evidence of long-lasting aftershock sequences in California. New work to study the occurrences of recent M≥4 in California shows that these events occur preferentially at the edges of past major ruptures, with the effect lessening with decreasing magnitude below M4. Prior to several California mainshocks, the M≥4 seismicity was uniformly spread along the future fault ruptures without concentrations at the fault ends. On these faults, the rates of the M≥4 earthquakes prior to the mainshocks were much greater than the rates of the recent M≥4 earthquakes. These results suggest that the spatial patterns and rates of M≥4 earthquakes may help identify which faults are most prone to rupturing in the near future. Using this idea, speculation on which faults in California may be the next ones to experience major earthquakes is presented. Some Japanese earthquakes were also tested for the patterns of M≥4 earthquake seen in California. The 2000 Mw6.6 Western Tottori earthquake shows a premonitory pattern similar to the patterns seen in California, and there have not been any M≥4 earthquakes in the fault vicinity since 2010. The 1995 Mw6.9 Kobe earthquake had little M≥4 seismicity in the years prior to the mainshock, and the M≥4 seismicity since 2000 has been scattered along the fault rupture. Both the 2016 M7.3 Kumamoto, Kyushu earthquake and the 2016 Mw6.2 Central Tottori earthquake had some M≥4 earthquakes along the fault in the two decades before the mainshocks. The results of these analyses suggest that the locations of recent M≥4 earthquakes may be useful for determining the spatial extents of past earthquake ruptures and also may help indicate which faults may have strong earthquakes within the next decade or so.

Worth of data and natural disaster insurance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.; Karlinger, M.R.

1979-01-01

The Federal Government in the past has provided medical and economic aid to victims of earthquakes and floods. However, regulating the use of hazard-prone areas would probably be more efficient. One way to implement such land use regulation is through the national flood and earthquake insurance program. Because insurance firms base their premium rates on available information, the benefits from additional data used to improve parameter estimates of the probability distribution (governing actual disaster events) can be computed by computing changes in the premiums as a function of additional data. An insurance firm is assumed to set rates so as to trade off penalties of overestimation and underestimation of expected damages. A Bayesian preposterior analysis is applied to determine the worth of additional data, as measured by changes in consumers’ surplus, by examining the effects of changes in premiums as a function of a longer hydrologic record.

A grounded theory study of 'turning into a strong nurse': Earthquake experiences and perspectives on disaster nursing education.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Turale, Sue; Stone, Teresa E; Petrini, Marcia

2015-09-01

While Asia has the dubious distinction of being the world's most natural disaster-prone area, disaster nursing education and training are sparse in many Asian countries, especially China where this study took place. To explore the earthquake disaster experiences of Chinese nurses and develop a substantive theory of earthquake disaster nursing that will help inform future development of disaster nursing education. A qualitative study employing grounded theory, informed by symbolic interactionism. Fifteen Chinese registered nurses from five hospitals in Jiangxi Province who undertook relief efforts after the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake. Data were collected in 2012-2013 in digitally-recorded, semi-structured, in-depth interviews and reflective field notes, and analyzed using Glaser's grounded theory method. Participants were unprepared educationally and psychologically for their disaster work. Supporting the emergent theory of "working in that terrible environment", was the core category of "turning into a strong nurse", a process of three stages: "going to the disaster"; "immersing in the disaster"; and "trying to let disaster experiences fade away". The participants found themselves thrust in "terrible" scenes of destruction, experienced personal dangers and ethical dilemmas, and tried the best they could to help survivors, communities and themselves, with limited resources and confronting professional work. Our rich findings confirm those of other studies in China and elsewhere, that attention must be paid to disaster education and training for nurses, as well as the mental health of nurses who work in disaster areas. Emergent theory helps to inform nurse educators, researchers, leaders and policy makers in China, and elsewhere in developing strategies to better prepare nurses for future disasters, and assist communities to prepare for and recover after earthquake disasters. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mitigating the consequences of future earthquakes in historical centres: what perspectives from the joined use of past information and geological-geophysical surveys?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terenzio Gizzi, Fabrizio; Moscatelli, Massimiliano; Potenza, Maria Rosaria; Zotta, Cinzia; Simionato, Maurizio; Pileggi, Domenico; Castenetto, Sergio

2015-04-01

To mitigate the damage effects of earthquakes in urban areas and particularly in historical centres prone to high seismic hazard is an important task to be pursued. As a matter of fact, seismic history throughout the world informs us that earthquakes have caused deep changes in the ancient urban conglomerations due to their high building vulnerability. Furthermore, some quarters can be exposed to an increase of seismic actions if compared with adjacent areas due to the geological and/or topographical features of the site on which the historical centres lie. Usually, the strategies aimed to estimate the local seismic hazard make only use of the geological-geophysical surveys. Thorough this approach we do not draw any lesson from what happened as a consequences of past earthquakes. With this in mind, we present the results of a joined use of historical data and traditional geological-geophysical approach to analyse the effects of possible future earthquakes in historical centres. The research activity discussed here is arranged into a joint collaboration between the Department of Civil Protection of the Presidency of Council of Ministers, the Institute of Environmental Geology and Geoengineering and the Institute of Archaeological and Monumental Heritage of the National (Italian) Research Council. In order to show the results, we discuss the preliminary achievements of the integrated study carried out on two historical towns located in Southern Apennines, a portion of the Italian peninsula exposed to high seismic hazard. Taking advantage from these two test sites, we also discuss some methodological implications that could be taken as a reference in the seismic microzonation studies.

Structural control on the Tohoku earthquake rupture process investigated by 3D FEM, tsunami and geodetic data

PubMed Central

Romano, F.; Trasatti, E.; Lorito, S.; Piromallo, C.; Piatanesi, A.; Ito, Y.; Zhao, D.; Hirata, K.; Lanucara, P.; Cocco, M.

2014-01-01

The 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw = 9.1) highlighted previously unobserved features for megathrust events, such as the large slip in a relatively limited area and the shallow rupture propagation. We use a Finite Element Model (FEM), taking into account the 3D geometrical and structural complexities up to the trench zone, and perform a joint inversion of tsunami and geodetic data to retrieve the earthquake slip distribution. We obtain a close spatial correlation between the main deep slip patch and the local seismic velocity anomalies, and large shallow slip extending also to the North coherently with a seismically observed low-frequency radiation. These observations suggest that the friction controlled the rupture, initially confining the deeper rupture and then driving its propagation up to the trench, where it spreads laterally. These findings are relevant to earthquake and tsunami hazard assessment because they may help to detect regions likely prone to rupture along the megathrust, and to constrain the probability of high slip near the trench. Our estimate of ~40 m slip value around the JFAST (Japan Trench Fast Drilling Project) drilling zone contributes to constrain the dynamic shear stress and friction coefficient of the fault obtained by temperature measurements to ~0.68 MPa and ~0.10, respectively. PMID:25005351

Structural control on the Tohoku earthquake rupture process investigated by 3D FEM, tsunami and geodetic data.

PubMed

Romano, F; Trasatti, E; Lorito, S; Piromallo, C; Piatanesi, A; Ito, Y; Zhao, D; Hirata, K; Lanucara, P; Cocco, M

2014-07-09

The 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw = 9.1) highlighted previously unobserved features for megathrust events, such as the large slip in a relatively limited area and the shallow rupture propagation. We use a Finite Element Model (FEM), taking into account the 3D geometrical and structural complexities up to the trench zone, and perform a joint inversion of tsunami and geodetic data to retrieve the earthquake slip distribution. We obtain a close spatial correlation between the main deep slip patch and the local seismic velocity anomalies, and large shallow slip extending also to the North coherently with a seismically observed low-frequency radiation. These observations suggest that the friction controlled the rupture, initially confining the deeper rupture and then driving its propagation up to the trench, where it spreads laterally. These findings are relevant to earthquake and tsunami hazard assessment because they may help to detect regions likely prone to rupture along the megathrust, and to constrain the probability of high slip near the trench. Our estimate of ~40 m slip value around the JFAST (Japan Trench Fast Drilling Project) drilling zone contributes to constrain the dynamic shear stress and friction coefficient of the fault obtained by temperature measurements to ~0.68 MPa and ~0.10, respectively.

Siting of USArray Seismic Stations in North Carolina and southern Virginia: Experience of NC-1 Team

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, P.; Howard, J.; Horne, T.

2012-12-01

The USArray component of the EarthScope, a transportable array of 400 seismometers installed in a grid about 70 km apart, is in the next two years entering its final stage with station deployment along the Atlantic coast of the United States. Here, we present the experience of the student-faculty team from North Carolina Central University (NCCU) in finding and documenting the suitable sites for the twenty five USArray stations in North Carolina and southern Virginia. The ideal sites are easily accessible yet far from traffic and other sources of noise, with good cell phone coverage, sun exposure and out of flood-prone areas. Although the initial selection of potential locations was done using geospatial mapping and analysis software provided by EarthScope, finding and finalizing the sites involved driving more then 1,000 miles each week for over two months inspecting possible site locations. Aside from driving, the majority of time was spent talking about the EarthScope project and hosting of USArray stations to mostly reluctant landowners. In addition to facing various challenges in finding appropriate sites due to land use issues, such as suburban sprawl of central North Carolina, or topography factors, such as low lying flood prone coastal areas, by far the major challenge was finding the landowners willing to host the seismic station for the necessary three years. In addition to involving students from an HBCU in seismology related project and increasing the visibility of NCCU geophysics program in the University and local community through publicity releases in local media and on university web site, the project had an important outreach component. As North Carolina is located along the seismically quiet, passive Atlantic margin, most residents are not familiar with earthquakes and seismology and the siting experience provided students an opportunity to practice explaining the earthquake research to the general public. The dialog also highlighted science issues that are of interest to North Carolina residents as many landowners asked similar questions related to, among others, fracking, possibility of an earthquake similar to magnitude 5.8 Mineral, Virginia earthquake occurring in North Carolina, and the use of taxpayers money to fund science projects such as EarthScope.

CO2 production by mechanical stress on carbonate rocks and its implications for natural hazards assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Italiano, Francesco; Pizzullo, Sonia; Plescia, Paolo

2010-05-01

The distribution of known CO2 discharges generally coincides with the on-land segments of major linear zones of seismicity throughout the world, showing the strong correlation between natural degassing and earthquakes. On the other hand, aftershocks of large earthquakes have been attributed to the coseismic release of trapped, high-pressure CO2-dominated fluids propagating through damaged zones created by the main shock thus underlining the role of the fluids as "agents" able to generate overpressures and reactivate fault segments inducing earthquakes. Recent experimental results have demonstrated that CO2 can be produced by mechanical stress applied on carbonate rocks sometimes requiring a relatively low energy amount. As a result, crustal volatiles can be produced due to high-pressure, mechanical stresses at moderate levels within the crust. Experiments, whereby different types of carbonate rocks (natural and synthetic) have been milled, have shown that carbonates release CO2 systematically and reproducibly leaving little doubt that carbonate rock located in shallow parts of the crust may undergo structural break-down to form CO2, particularly in the presence of accessory phases such as clays. Such a process allows several natural systems (e.g. active faults in limestones) to become significant CO2 producer when mechanical stress is applied. The possibility of assessing the linkage between variations in geochemical tracers and the onset of seismic activity, is a topical research activity of meaningful societal relevance and contributes to understand some processes related to the seismogenesis, thus to the largest natural hazard for the humankind. As such, monitoring CO2 over seismic-prone areas located in carbonate rocks, may provide a better insight of the development of the seismogenic process and useful tools in understanding the response of volatiles to crustal perturbations. Moreover, since crustal deformation can also occur aseismically, and rock deformation may produce CO2 as a response to the applied mechanical stress, monitoring of CO2 discharges could be useful in the estimate the probability increase of an impending earthquake in a potentially hazardous seismic region. Laboratory results and field investigations carried out over the seismic-prone area of the Central Apennines provided the first results useful for practical applications in facing the natural hazards related to both seismic activity and release of hazardous gases.

Turkish Compulsory Earthquake Insurance and "Istanbul Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durukal, E.; Sesetyan, K.; Erdik, M.

2009-04-01

The city of Istanbul will likely experience substantial direct and indirect losses as a result of a future large (M=7+) earthquake with an annual probability of occurrence of about 2%. This paper dwells on the expected building losses in terms of probable maximum and average annualized losses and discusses the results from the perspective of the compulsory earthquake insurance scheme operational in the country. The TCIP system is essentially designed to operate in Turkey with sufficient penetration to enable the accumulation of funds in the pool. Today, with only 20% national penetration, and about approximately one-half of all policies in highly earthquake prone areas (one-third in Istanbul) the system exhibits signs of adverse selection, inadequate premium structure and insufficient funding. Our findings indicate that the national compulsory earthquake insurance pool in Turkey will face difficulties in covering incurring building losses in Istanbul in the occurrence of a large earthquake. The annualized earthquake losses in Istanbul are between 140-300 million. Even if we assume that the deductible is raised to 15%, the earthquake losses that need to be paid after a large earthquake in Istanbul will be at about 2.5 Billion, somewhat above the current capacity of the TCIP. Thus, a modification to the system for the insured in Istanbul (or Marmara region) is necessary. This may mean an increase in the premia and deductible rates, purchase of larger re-insurance covers and development of a claim processing system. Also, to avoid adverse selection, the penetration rates elsewhere in Turkey need to be increased substantially. A better model would be introduction of parametric insurance for Istanbul. By such a model the losses will not be indemnified, however will be directly calculated on the basis of indexed ground motion levels and damages. The immediate improvement of a parametric insurance model over the existing one will be the elimination of the claim processing period, which would certainly be a major difficulty for the expected low-frequency/high intensity loss case of Istanbul.

Assessment of seismic risk in Tashkent, Uzbekistan and Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erdik, M.; Rashidov, T.; Safak, E.; Turdukulov, A.

2005-01-01

The impact of earthquakes in urban centers prone to disastrous earthquakes necessitates the analysis of associated risk for rational formulation of contingency plans and mitigation strategies. In urban centers the seismic risk is best quantified and portrayed through the preparation of 'Earthquake damage and Loss Scenarios'. The components of such scenarios are the assessment of the hazard, inventories and the vulnerabilities of elements at risk. For the development of earthquake risk scenario in Tashkent-Uzbekistan and Bishkek-Kyrgyzstan an approach based on spectral displacements is utilized. This paper will present the important features of a comprehensive study, highlight the methodology, discuss the results and provide insights to the future developments. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reduction of earthquake risk in the united states: Bridging the gap between research and practice

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hays, W.W.

1998-01-01

Continuing efforts under the auspices of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program are under way to improve earthquake risk assessment and risk management in earthquake-prone regions of Alaska, California, Nevada, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho, the New Madrid and Wabash Valley seismic zones in the central United States, the southeastern and northeastern United States, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Guam, and Hawaii. Geologists, geophysicists, seismologists, architects, engineers, urban planners, emergency managers, health care specialists, and policymakers are having to work at the margins of their disciplines to bridge the gap between research and practice and to provide a social, technical, administrative, political, legal, and economic basis for changing public policies and professional practices in communities where the earthquake risk is unacceptable. ?? 1998 IEEE.

Paleoseismology under sea: First evidence for irregular seismic cycles during Holocene off Algeria from turbidites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratzov, Gueorgui; Cattaneo, Antonio; Babonneau, Nathalie; Déverchere, Jacques; Yelles, Karim; Bracene, Rabah

2013-04-01

According to simple models, stress build-up along a given fault is proportional to the time elapsed since the previous earthquake. Although the resulting « seismic gap » hypothesis suits well for moderate magnitude earthquake (Mw 4-5), large events (Mw>6) are hardly predictable and show great variation in recurrence intervals. Thus, models based on stress transfer and interactions between faults suggest that an earthquake may haste or delay the occurrence of next earthquake on adjacent fault by increasing or lowering the level of static stress. Here, we show that meaningful information of large earthquakes recurrence intervals over several seismic cycles may be obtained using turbidite record offshore the Algerian margin (Mediterranean Sea), an area prone to relatively large (M~7) earthquakes in historical times. Indeed, as evidenced on the Cascadia subduction zone, synchroneous turbidites over a large area and originated from independent sources, are most likely triggered by an earthquake. To test the method on this slowly convergent margin, we analysed turbidites in 3 sediment cores collected off the area shaken by the 1980 Ms 7.3 El Asnam and 1954 M6.7 Orléansville earthquakes. We used X-ray radioscopy, XRF major elements counter, magnetic susceptibility, and grain-size distribution to accurately discriminate turbidites (~instantaneous deposit) from hemipelagites (continuous background sedimentation). We dated turbidites by calculating hemipelagic sedimentation rates obtained with AMS radiocarbon ages, and applied the rates between turbidites. Finally, the age of events was compared to the only paleoseismic investigation available onland. We found that 10 to 25 turbidites deposited as single or multiple pulses over the last ~8ka. Once correlated from site to site, they support 14 seismic events. Most events are correlated with the paleoseismic record of the El Asnam fault, but uncorrelated events support that other faults were active. Only the first of the two major events of 1954 and 1980 triggered a turbidity current, implying that the sediment buffer on the continental shelf could not be reloaded in 26 years thus giving information on the minimum time resolution of our method. The new paleoseismic catalog shows a recurrence interval of 300-700 years for most events, but also a great interval of >1200 years without any major earthquake. This result suggest that the level of static stress may have drastically dropped as a result of three main events occurring within the 800 years prior the quiescence period. The quiescent period also supports a stress transfer and interaction between neighbouring faults.

Soil classification for seismic site effect using MASW and ReMi methods: A case study from western Anatolia (Dikili -İzmir)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karabulut, Savaş

2018-03-01

The study area is located in the northern part of Izmir, Western Turkey, prone to an active tectonic extensional regime and includes typical features of sedimentary basins, horst-grabens surrounded by a series of normal and strike-slip faults. In September 1939 the Dikili (Kabakum) earthquake with a magnitude of Mw: 6.6 occurred and after this phenomenon, residents moved from the west of Dikili to the east (i.d. soft sediments to relative to rock area). A proper estimate of the earthquake-related hazard for the area is the main objective of this study. The site effect and soil engineering problems for estimating hazard parameters at the soil surface need to be carefully analyzed for seismic site classification and geo-engineering problems like soil liquefaction, soil settlement, soil bearing capacity and soil amplification. To solve the soil static and dynamic problems, shear-wave velocities have been used in a joint interpretation process; Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW) and Refraction Microtremor (ReMi) analyses were conducted on 121 sites with 300 × 300 m grid size in an area of 60 km2. It has been proposed that the probability of an earthquake with a magnitude of Mw: 6 occurring within 10 years is 64%, when considering the Gutenberg-Richter model. This puts the region under an important earthquake risk. The estimated Vs30 values are ≤180 m/s in the central and the northernmost part of the study area are showing an E type soil after the classification of NEHRP, where alluvial deposits are dominant. Vs30 values in the north and central part are between 180 ≤ Vs ≤ 360 m/s suggesting a D type soil. In the southernmost part of the study area where volcanic rocks are widely distributed, Vs30 values range between 360 and 908 m/s, corresponding to a C type and B type soil. The results show that soil liquefaction induced settlement and soil amplification are the most important problems in the south and the northernmost part of the study area, which is densely populated and encompasses the urbanized part of the study region.

Simulating Earthquake Early Warning Systems in the Classroom as a New Approach to Teaching Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Alessio, M. A.

2010-12-01

A discussion of P- and S-waves seems an ubiquitous part of studying earthquakes in the classroom. Textbooks from middle school through university level typically define the differences between the waves and illustrate the sense of motion. While many students successfully memorize the differences between wave types (often utilizing the first letter as a memory aide), textbooks rarely give tangible examples of how the two waves would "feel" to a person sitting on the ground. One reason for introducing the wave types is to explain how to calculate earthquake epicenters using seismograms and travel time charts -- very abstract representations of earthquakes. Even when the skill is mastered using paper-and-pencil activities or one of the excellent online interactive versions, locating an epicenter simply does not excite many of our students because it evokes little emotional impact, even in students located in earthquake-prone areas. Despite these limitations, huge numbers of students are mandated to complete the task. At the K-12 level, California requires that all students be able to locate earthquake epicenters in Grade 6; in New York, the skill is a required part of the Regent's Examination. Recent innovations in earthquake early warning systems around the globe give us the opportunity to address the same content standard, but with substantially more emotional impact on students. I outline a lesson about earthquakes focused on earthquake early warning systems. The introductory activities include video clips of actual earthquakes and emphasize the differences between the way P- and S-waves feel when they arrive (P arrives first, but is weaker). I include an introduction to the principle behind earthquake early warning (including a summary of possible uses of a few seconds warning about strong shaking) and show examples from Japan. Students go outdoors to simulate P-waves, S-waves, and occupants of two different cities who are talking to one another on cell phones. The culminating activity is for students to "design" an early warning system that will protect their school from nearby earthquakes. The better they design the system, the safer they will be. Each team of students receives a map of faults in the area and possible sites for real-time seismometer installation. Given a fixed budget, they must select the best sites for detecting a likely earthquake. After selecting their locations, teams face-off two-by-two in a tournament of simulated earthquakes. We created animations of a few simulated earthquakes for our institution and have plans to build a web-based version that will allow others to customize the location to their own location and facilitate the competition between teams. Earthquake early warning is both cutting-edge and has huge societal benefits. Instead of teaching our students how to locate epicenters after an earthquake has occurred, we can teach the same content standards while showing them that earthquake science can really save lives.

Tsunami exposure estimation with land-cover data: Oregon and the Cascadia subduction zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, N.

2009-01-01

A Cascadia subduction-zone earthquake has the potential to generate tsunami waves which would impact more than 1000 km of coastline on the west coast of the United States and Canada. Although the predictable extent of tsunami inundation is similar for low-lying land throughout the region, human use of tsunami-prone land varies, creating variations in community exposure and potential impacts. To better understand such variations, land-cover information derived from midresolution remotely-sensed imagery (e.g., 30-m-resolution Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery) was coupled with tsunami-hazard information to describe tsunami-prone land along the Oregon coast. Land-cover data suggest that 95% of the tsunami-prone land in Oregon is undeveloped and is primarily wetlands and unconsolidated shores. Based on Spearman rank correlation coefficients (rs), correlative relationships are strong and statistically significant (p < 0.05) between city-level estimates of the amount of land-cover pixels classified as developed (impervious cover greater than 20%) and the amount of various societal assets, including residential and employee populations, homes, businesses, and tax-parcel values. Community exposure to tsunami hazards, described here by the amount and relative percentage of developed land in tsunami-prone areas, varies considerably among the 26 communities of the study area, and these variations relate to city size. Correlative relationships are strong and significant (p < 0.05) for community exposure rankings based on land-cover data and those based on aggregated socioeconomic data. In the absence of socioeconomic data or community-based knowledge, the integration of hazards information and land-cover information derived from midresolution remotely-sensed imagery to estimate community exposure may be a useful first step in understanding variations in community vulnerability to regional hazards.

Geomodels of coseismic landslides environments in Central Chile.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serey, A.; Sepulveda, S. A.; Murphy, W.; Petley, D. N.

2017-12-01

Landslides are a major source of fatalities and damage during strong earthquakes in mountain areas. Detailed geomodels of coseismic landslides environments are essential parts of seismic landslide hazard analyses. The development of a site specific geological model is required, based on consideration of the regional and local geological and geomorphological history and the current ground surface conditions. An engineering geological model is any approximation of the geological conditions, at varying scales, created for the purpose of solving an engineering problem. In our case, the objective is the development of a methodology for earthquake-induced landslide hazard assessment applicable to urban/territorial planning and disaster prevention strategies assessment at a regional scale adapted for the Chilean tectonic conditions. We have developed the only 2 complete inventories of landslides triggered by earthquakes in Chile. The first from the Mw 6.2, shallow crustal Aysén earthquake in 2007. Second one from the Mw 8.8, megathrust subduction Maule earthquake in 2010. From the comparison of these 2 inventories with others from abroad, as well as analysis of large, prehistoric landslide inventories proposed as likely induced by seismic activity we have determined topographic, geomorphological, geological and seismic controlling factors in the occurrence of earthquake-triggered landslides. With the information collected we have defined different environments for generation of coseismic landslides based on the construction of geomodels. As a result we have built several geomodels in the Santiago Cordillera in central Chile (33°S), based upon the San Ramón Fault, a west-vergent reverse fault that outcrops at the edge of Santiago basin recently found to be active and a likely source of seismic activity in the future, with potential of triggering landslides in the Santiago mountain front as well as inland into the Mapocho and Maipo Cordilleran valleys. In conclusion these geomodels are a powerful tool for earthquake-induced landslide hazard assessment. As an implication we can identify landslide-prone areas, distinguish different seismic scenarios and describe related potential hazards, including burial and river damming by large rock slides and rock avalanches.

Multidisciplinary Geo-scientific Hazard Analyses: Istanbul Microzonation Projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kara, Sema; Baş, Mahmut; Kılıç, Osman; Tarih, Ahmet; Yahya Menteşe, Emin; Duran, Kemal

2017-04-01

Istanbul (Turkey) is located on the west edge of North Anatolia Fault and hence is an earthquake prone city with a population that exceeds 15 million people. In addition, the city is still growing as center of commerce, tourism and culture that increases the exposure more and more. During the last decade, although Istanbul grew faster than ever in its history, precautions against a possible earthquake have also increased steadily. The two big earthquakes (in Kocaeli and Duzce Provinces) occurred in 1999 alongside Istanbul and these events became the trigger events that accelerated the disaster risk reduction activities in Istanbul. Following a loss estimation study carried out by Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA) in 2001 and Istanbul Earthquake Master Plan prepared by four major universities' researchers in 2003; it was evaluated that understanding and analyzing the geological structure in Istanbul was the main concern. Thereafter Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality's Directorate of Earthquake and Ground Research (DEGRE) carried out two major geo-scientific studies called "microzonation studies" covering 650 km2 of Istanbul's urbanized areas between 2006 and 2009. The studies were called "microzonation" because the analysis resolution was as dense as 250m grids and included various assessments on hazards such as ground shaking, liquefaction, karstification, landslide, flooding, and surface faulting. After the evaluation of geological, geotechnical and geophysical measurements; Earthquake and Tsunami Hazard Maps for all Istanbul, slope, engineering geology, ground water level, faulting, ground shaking, inundation, shear wave velocity and soil classification maps for the project areas were obtained. In the end "Land Suitability Maps" are derived from the combination of inputs using multi-hazard approach. As a result, microzonation is tool for risk oriented urban planning; consisting of interdisciplinary multi-hazard risk analyses. The outputs of microzonation are used in land development/use plans, hazard identification in urban transformation, determination of the routes and characteristics of various types of engineering structures such as highways, tunnels, bridges, railroads, viaducts and ports. Hence, by the use of detailed geo-scientific analyses, basics of earthquake resilient urbanization is guaranteed.

The subsurface cross section resistivity using magnetotelluric method in Pelabuhan Ratu area, West Java, implication for geological hazard mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaffar, Eddy Z.

2016-02-01

Pelabuhan Ratu area is located on the south coast of West Java. Pelabuhan Ratu area's rapid development and population growth were partly stimulated by the Indonesian Government Regulation No. 66 the year 1998 that made Pelabuhan Ratu the capital city of the district of Sukabumi. Because of this fact, it is very important to create a geological hazard mitigation plan for the area. Pelabuhan Ratu were passed by two major faults: Cimandiri fault in the western and Citarik fault in the eastern. Cimandiri fault starts from the upstream of Cimandiri River to the southern of Sukabumi and Cianjur city. While Citarik fault starts from the Citarik River until the Salak Mountain. These two faults needs to be observed closely as they are prone to cause earthquake in the area. To mitigate earthquake that is estimated will occur at Cimandiri fault or the Citarik fault, the Research Center for Geotechnology LIPI conducted research using Magnetotelluric (MT) method with artificial Phoenix MT tool to determine the cross-section resistivity of the Pelabuhan Ratu and the surrounding area. Measurements were taken at 40 points along the highway towards Jampang to Pelabuhan Ratu, and to Bandung towards Cibadak with a distance of less than 500 meters between the measuring points. Measurement results using this tool will generate AMT cross-section resistivity to a depth of 1500 meters below the surface. Cross-section resistivity measurement results showed that there was a layer of rock with about 10 Ohm-m to 1000 Ohm-m resistivity. Rocks with resistivity of 10 Ohm-m was interpreted as conductive rocks that were loose or sandstone containing water. If an earthquake to occur in this area, it will lead to a strong movement and liquefaction that will destroy buildings and potentially cause casualties in this area.

Intensity Based Seismic Hazard Map of Republic of Macedonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dojcinovski, Dragi; Dimiskovska, Biserka; Stojmanovska, Marta

2016-04-01

The territory of the Republic of Macedonia and the border terrains are among the most seismically active parts of the Balkan Peninsula belonging to the Mediterranean-Trans-Asian seismic belt. The seismological data on the R. Macedonia from the past 16 centuries point to occurrence of very strong catastrophic earthquakes. The hypocenters of the occurred earthquakes are located above the Mohorovicic discontinuity, most frequently, at a depth of 10-20 km. Accurate short -term prognosis of earthquake occurrence, i.e., simultaneous prognosis of time, place and intensity of their occurrence is still not possible. The present methods of seismic zoning have advanced to such an extent that it is with a great probability that they enable efficient protection against earthquake effects. The seismic hazard maps of the Republic of Macedonia are the result of analysis and synthesis of data from seismological, seismotectonic and other corresponding investigations necessary for definition of the expected level of seismic hazard for certain time periods. These should be amended, from time to time, with new data and scientific knowledge. The elaboration of this map does not completely solve all issues related to earthquakes, but it provides basic empirical data necessary for updating the existing regulations for construction of engineering structures in seismically active areas regulated by legal regulations and technical norms whose constituent part is the seismic hazard map. The map has been elaborated based on complex seismological and geophysical investigations of the considered area and synthesis of the results from these investigations. There were two phases of elaboration of the map. In the first phase, the map of focal zones characterized by maximum magnitudes of possible earthquakes has been elaborated. In the second phase, the intensities of expected earthquakes have been computed according to the MCS scale. The map is prognostic, i.e., it provides assessment of the probability for occurrence of future earthquakes with a defined area distribution of their seismic intensity, depending on the natural characteristics of the terrain. The period of 10.000 years represents the greatest expected seismic threat for the considered area. From the aspect of low-cost construction, it is also necessary to know the seismicity in shorter time periods, as well. Therefore, maps for return time periods of 50, 100, 200, 500 and 1000 years have also been elaborated. The maps show a probability of 63% for occurrence of expected earthquakes with maximum intensities expressed on the MCS scale. The map has been elaborated to the scale of 1: 1.000.000, while the obtained isolines of seismic intensity are drawn with an error of  5 km. The seismic hazard map of R. Macedonia is used for: • The needs of the Rulebook on Technical Norms on Construction of Structures in Seismic Areas and for the needs of physical and urban planning and design. • While defining the seismic design parameters for construction of structures in zones with intensity of I  VII degrees MSK, investigations should be done for detailed seismic zoning and microzoning of the terrain of these zones in compliance with the technical regulations for construction in seismically prone areas. • The areas on the map indicated by intensity X MCS are not regulated by the valid regulations. Therefore, in practice, these should be treated as such in which it is not possible to construct any structures without previous surveys. • Revision of this map is done at a five year period, i.e., after each occurred earthquake whose parameters are such that require modifications and amendments of the map.

Earthquake Early Warning: A Prospective User's Perspective (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishenko, S. P.; Savage, W. U.; Johnson, T.

2009-12-01

With more than 25 million people at risk from high hazard faults in California alone, Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) presents a promising public safety and emergency response tool. EEW represents the real-time end of an earthquake information spectrum which also includes near real-time notifications of earthquake location, magnitude, and shaking levels; as well as geographic information system (GIS)-based products for compiling and visually displaying processed earthquake data such as ShakeMap and ShakeCast. Improvements to and increased multi-national implementation of EEW have stimulated interest in how such information products could be used in the future. Lifeline organizations, consisting of utilities and transportation systems, can use both onsite and regional EEW information as part of their risk management and public safety programs. Regional EEW information can provide improved situational awareness to system operators before automatic system protection devices activate, and allow trained personnel to take precautionary measures. On-site EEW is used for earthquake-actuated automatic gas shutoff valves, triggered garage door openers at fire stations, system controls, etc. While there is no public policy framework for preemptive, precautionary electricity or gas service shutdowns by utilities in the United States, gas shut-off devices are being required at the building owner level by some local governments. In the transportation sector, high-speed rail systems have already demonstrated the ‘proof of concept’ for EEW in several countries, and more EEW systems are being installed. Recently the Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART) began collaborating with the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) and others to assess the potential benefits of EEW technology to mass transit operations and emergency response in the San Francisco Bay region. A key issue in this assessment is that significant earthquakes are likely to occur close to or within the BART system, limiting the time available for an EEW-based response (i.e., slowing or stopping trains). While EEW systems are currently being tested in California, the societal benefits may be even more pronounced in other earthquake-prone parts of the United States. In the central and eastern United States, strong ground motions are felt over significantly larger areas than in California, enabling both a larger area and longer lead times for warnings ahead of the arrival of strong shaking. Because these regions are less resistant to earthquake shaking, such warnings may be even more important for safety and emergency response. However, in many areas a significant increase in the instrumentation density would be required for EEW to become a reality. Although the details of EEW systems are specific to earthquakes, the operation of sensor networks, real-time data analysis, and rapid notification to lifelines is an emerging technology that can be used for real-time detection and early warning of other types of natural and human-caused disasters and emergencies.

Healing of the landscape after Gorkha earthquake, insights from seismic interferometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Illien, Luc; Sens-Schönfelder, Christoph; Hovius, Niels; Andermann, Christoff; Turowski, Jens Martin

2017-04-01

It has been shown that earthquakes trigger transient effects in the landscape that can last from several days (enhanced river discharge) to several years (enhanced landslides rates) or even decades (e.g. river bedload). These observations are geomorphic expressions of physical changes in shallow subsurface that are yet poorly understood. To gain insights in the underlying physical processes, we appeal to exploratory geophysical methods that allow us to monitor the variation of rock strength over time. Thanks to a seismic dense array deployed in the Bhote Koshi catchment following the April 2015 7.8 Mw Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake we can apply noise correlation monitoring the evolution of the seismic wave velocities at a high spatial resolution in the landscape. Our results show that the observed velocity changes are spatially heterogeneous after ground shaking events. We attribute these velocity changes to coseismic damage that is followed by a recovery in rock strength in the sampled medium. We suggest that these results directly reflect the state of the most fractured layer in the landscape, in the shallow sub-surface. These findings allow us to discuss where erosion patterns such as landslide-prone areas cluster but also mechanisms responsible for hillslope healing after large earthquakes. Finally, this study highlights the value of seismometers for the investigation of near-surface processes in the context of natural hazards.

Odua Weston Jambi Hotel’s Structural Building Design with Prestressed Concrete Slab System Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayuaji, R.; Darmawan, M. S.; Rofiq, M. A.; Santoso, S. E.; Hardiyanto, E.

2017-11-01

Odua Weston Jambi Hotel is an eight-floor hotel and located in a prone to earth-quake area. This building used conventional concrete to its structural beam and column. This research’s purpose was to maximize the second-floor’s function by modifing its architectural design. Special Moment Resisting Frame System (SMRFS) approach was used in the structural design, referred to SNI 03-2847-2013 dan SNI 1726-2012 and to compensate the needs of a spacious hall without any column in the centre of the hall, so therefore, prestressed concrete plate is used to solve this problem.

Seismic Sources for the Territory of Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsereteli, N. S.; Varazanashvili, O.

2011-12-01

The southern Caucasus is an earthquake prone region where devastating earthquakes have repeatedly caused significant loss of lives, infrastructure and buildings. High geodynamic activity of the region expressed in both seismic and aseismic deformations, is conditioned by the still-ongoing convergence of lithospheric plates and northward propagation of the Afro-Arabian continental block at a rate of several cm/year. The geometry of tectonic deformations in the region is largely determined by the wedge-shaped rigid Arabian block intensively intended into the relatively mobile Middle East-Caucasian region. Georgia is partner of ongoing regional project EMME. The main objective of EMME is calculation of Earthquake hazard uniformly with heights standards. One approach used in the project is the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. In this approach the first parameter requirement is the definition of seismic source zones. Seismic sources can be either faults or area sources. Seismoactive structures of Georgia are identified mainly on the basis of the correlation between neotectonic structures of the region and earthquakes. Requirements of modern PSH software to geometry of faults is very high. As our knowledge of active faults geometry is not sufficient, area sources were used. Seismic sources are defined as zones that are characterized with more or less uniform seismicity. Poor knowledge of the processes occurring in deep of the Earth is connected with complexity of direct measurement. From this point of view the reliable data obtained from earthquake fault plane solution is unique for understanding the character of a current tectonic life of investigated area. There are two methods of identification if seismic sources. The first is the seimsotectonic approach, based on identification of extensive homogeneous seismic sources (SS) with the definition of probability of occurrence of maximum earthquake Mmax. In the second method the identification of seismic sources will be obtained on the bases of structural geology, parameters of seismicity and seismotectonics. This last approach was used by us. For achievement of this purpose it was necessary to solve following problems: to calculate the parameters of seismotectonic deformation; to reveal regularities in character of earthquake fault plane solution; use obtained regularities to develop principles of an establishment of borders between various hierarchical and scale levels of seismic deformations fields and to give their geological interpretation; Three dimensional matching of active faults with real geometrical dimension and earthquake sources have been investigated. Finally each zone have been defined with the parameters: the geometry, the magnitude-frequency parameters, maximum magnitude, and depth distribution as well as modern dynamical characteristics widely used for complex processes

Source Spectra and Site Response for Two Indonesian Earthquakes: the Tasikmalaya and Kerinci Events of 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunawan, I.; Cummins, P. R.; Ghasemi, H.; Suhardjono, S.

2012-12-01

Indonesia is very prone to natural disasters, especially earthquakes, due to its location in a tectonically active region. In September-October 2009 alone, intraslab and crustal earthquakes caused the deaths of thousands of people, severe infrastructure destruction and considerable economic loss. Thus, both intraslab and crustal earthquakes are important sources of earthquake hazard in Indonesia. Analysis of response spectra for these intraslab and crustal earthquakes are needed to yield more detail about earthquake properties. For both types of earthquakes, we have analysed available Indonesian seismic waveform data to constrain source and path parameters - i.e., low frequency spectral level, Q, and corner frequency - at reference stations that appear to be little influenced by site response.. We have considered these analyses for the main shocks as well as several aftershocks. We obtain corner frequencies that are reasonably consistent with the constant stress drop hypothesis. Using these results, we consider using them to extract information about site response form other stations form the Indonesian strong motion network that appear to be strongly affected by site response. Such site response data, as well as earthquake source parameters, are important for assessing earthquake hazard in Indonesia.

Management of Combined Natural Risks - A New Approach: Keynote Address

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanisch, Jörg

A new attempt is made to illustrate and to quantify the relationships of individual natural hazards, their combinations and the human vulnerability to natural hazards. During many catastrophic events, combinations of different natural events aggravate their occurrence substantially. Earthquakes are frequently associated with heavy landsliding (El Salvador 2001) and heavy rainstorms are able to trigger fast running debris flows and not only floods (like during the Mitch disaster in Central America in 1998). That signifies that natural hazard maps should show the combinations of different hazards and their genetic relationships. To put into effect this, first, the individual hazards have to be assessed and presented in hazard zones (0 to 3). Then these hazards zones will be overlain using GIS techniques. In this way, e.g., an earthquake-prone area which coincides with an area susceptible to landslides (ranking 0 to 3 as well) can show hazard concentrations of up to a value of 6, simply adding the individual hazard zones. To get the result of the corresponding risk zones, the vulnerability maps of human settlements and infra-structure have to be overlain on the maps of these combinations of natural hazards.

Study on Frequency content in seismic hazard analysis in West Azarbayjan and East Azarbayjan provinces (Iran)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behzadafshar, K.; Abbaszadeh Shahri, A.; Isfandiari, K.

2012-12-01

ABSTRACT: Iran plate is prone to earthquake, occurrence of destructive earthquakes approximately every 5 years certify it. Due to existence of happened great earthquakes and large number of potential seismic sources (active faults) which some of them are responsible for great earthquakes the North-West of Iran which is located in junction of Alborz and Zagros seismotectonic provinces (Mirzaii et al, 1998) is an interesting area for seismologists. Considering to population and existence of large cities like Tabriz, Ardabil and Orumiyeh which play crucial role in industry and economy of Iran, authors decided to focus on study of seismic hazard assessment in these two provinces to achieve ground acceleration in different frequency content and indicate critical frequencies in the studied area. It is important to note that however lots of studies have been done in North -West of Iran, but building code modifications also need frequency content analysis to asses seismic hazard more precisely which has been done in the present study. Furthermore, in previous studies have been applied free download softwares which were provided before 2000 but the most important advantage of this study is applying professional industrial software which has been written in 2009 and provided by authors. This applied software can cover previous software weak points very well such as gridding potential sources, attention to the seismogenic zone and applying attenuation relationships directly. Obtained hazard maps illustrate that maximum accelerations will be experienced in North West to South East direction which increased by frequency reduction from 100 Hz to 10 Hz then decreased by frequency reduce (to 0.25 Hz). Maximum acceleration will be occurred in the basement in 10 HZ frequency content. Keywords: hazard map, Frequency content, seismogenic zone, Iran

The Disconnection of Physical Reconstruction and Living Mode Restoration amongst Resettled Rural Households: A Case Study on The 2008 Sichuan Earthquake Recovery Program, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, L.; Aitchison, J. C.; Hussey, K.

2017-12-01

Population resettlement has been a customary strategy to protect people's lives following natural disasters. While there is plenty research evaluating the consequences of population resettlement programs, evidence of its long-term effects on post-disaster recovery is lacking. Using data from 60 in-depth household interviews, two focus group discussions and field observations, this research examines the recovery among resettled rural households in the 2008 Sichuan earthquake-impacted areas. Results suggest that most households considered themselves worse-off after being resettled, and a large proportion of the resettled population is struggling to meet their basic needs as their living expenses are barely covered by income. This research highlights two original findings: First, the resettled rural households have not recovered from impacts of the earthquake in spite of living in a secure place. Second, the unachieved restoration of familiar living mode amongst the resettled largely contributes to this perception, which is further attributed to the lagging restitution of agricultural assets and the absence of off-job opportunities at the resettled communities. Completing mature recovery is subject to the availability of these resources. Resettlement and reconstruction practice should not be isolated from the consideration of restoring previous livelihood assets and replenishing new income-generating activities. This enables restoration of a familiar living mode for the relocated population in which they are able to recover and develop with their own ability in post-disaster life. Findings in this research can be translated to recovery practice involving rural circumstances in disaster-prone areas. Future work will include the post-earthquake population resettlement programs in Nepal and New Zealand for a comparative study on the effects of these practices in different countries.

Robust Satellite Techniques (RST) for monitoring earthquake prone areas by satellite TIR observations: The case of 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake (Taiwan)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Genzano, N.; Filizzola, C.; Paciello, R.; Pergola, N.; Tramutoli, V.

2015-12-01

For more than 13 years a multi-temporal data-analysis method, named Robust Satellite Techniques (RST), has been being applied to satellite Thermal InfraRed (TIR) monitoring of seismically active regions. It gives a clear definition of a TIR anomaly within a validation/confutation scheme devoted to verify if detected anomalies can be associated or not to the time and location of the occurrence of major earthquakes. In this scheme, the confutation part (i.e. verifying if similar anomalies do not occur in the absence of a significant seismic activity) assumes a role even much important than the usual validation component devoted to verify the presence of anomalous signal transients before (or in association with) specific seismic events. Since 2001, RST approach has been being used to study tens of earthquakes with a wide range of magnitudes (from 4.0 to 7.9) occurred in different continents and in various geo-tectonic settings. In this paper such a long term experience is exploited in order to give a quantitative definition of a significant sequence of TIR anomalies (SSTA) in terms of the required space-time continuity constraints (persistence), identifying also the different typologies of known spurious sequences of TIR anomalies that have to be excluded from the following validation steps. On the same basis, taking also into account for the physical models proposed for justifying the existence of a correlation between TIR anomalies and earthquakes occurrence, specific validation rules (in line with the ones used by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability - CSEP - Project) have been defined to drive the validation process. In this work, such an approach is applied for the first time to a long-term dataset of night-time GMS-5/VISSR (Geostationary Meteorological Satellite/Visible and Infrared Spin-Scan Radiometer) TIR measurements, comparing SSTAs and earthquakes with M > 4 which occurred in a wide area around Taiwan, in the month of September of different years (from 1995 to 2002). In this dataset the Chi-Chi earthquake (MW = 7.6) which occurred on September 20, 1999 represents the major, but not unique, event. The analysis shows that all identified SSTAs occur in the pre-fixed space-time window around (in terms of time and location) earthquakes with M > 4. The false positive rate remains zero even if only earthquakes with M > 4.5 are considered. In the case of the Chi-Chi earthquake, 3 SSTAs were identified (all within the established space-time correlation window), one of them appearing about 2 weeks before and very close to the epicentre of the earthquake just along the associated tectonic lineaments. The wide considered space-time window, together with the high seismicity of the considered area, surely positively conditioned the achieved results, so that further analyses should be carried out by using longer datasets and different geographic areas. However, also considering the coincidence with other (possible) precursor phenomena, independently reported (particularly within the iSTEP project) at the time of the Chi Chi earthquake, achieved results seem already sufficient (at least) to qualify TIR anomalies (identified by RST) among the parameters to be considered in the framework of a multi-parametric approach to a time-Dependent Assessment of Seismic Hazard (t-DASH).

The Geological Susceptibility of Induced Earthquakes in the Duvernay Play

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pawley, Steven; Schultz, Ryan; Playter, Tiffany; Corlett, Hilary; Shipman, Todd; Lyster, Steven; Hauck, Tyler

2018-02-01

Presently, consensus on the incorporation of induced earthquakes into seismic hazard has yet to be established. For example, the nonstationary, spatiotemporal nature of induced earthquakes is not well understood. Specific to the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin, geological bias in seismogenic activation potential has been suggested to control the spatial distribution of induced earthquakes regionally. In this paper, we train a machine learning algorithm to systemically evaluate tectonic, geomechanical, and hydrological proxies suspected to control induced seismicity. Feature importance suggests that proximity to basement, in situ stress, proximity to fossil reef margins, lithium concentration, and rate of natural seismicity are among the strongest model predictors. Our derived seismogenic potential map faithfully reproduces the current distribution of induced seismicity and is suggestive of other regions which may be prone to induced earthquakes. The refinement of induced seismicity geological susceptibility may become an important technique to identify significant underlying geological features and address induced seismic hazard forecasting issues.

Earthquake Damping Device for Steel Frame

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamri Ramli, Mohd; Delfy, Dezoura; Adnan, Azlan; Torman, Zaida

2018-04-01

Structures such as buildings, bridges and towers are prone to collapse when natural phenomena like earthquake occurred. Therefore, many design codes are reviewed and new technologies are introduced to resist earthquake energy especially on building to avoid collapse. The tuned mass damper is one of the earthquake reduction products introduced on structures to minimise the earthquake effect. This study aims to analyse the effectiveness of tuned mass damper by experimental works and finite element modelling. The comparisons are made between these two models under harmonic excitation. Based on the result, it is proven that installing tuned mass damper will reduce the dynamic response of the frame but only in several input frequencies. At the highest input frequency applied, the tuned mass damper failed to reduce the responses. In conclusion, in order to use a proper design of damper, detailed analysis must be carried out to have sufficient design based on the location of the structures with specific ground accelerations.

Building vulnerability and human loss assessment in different earthquake intensity and time: a case study of the University of the Philippines, Los Baños (UPLB) Campus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rusydy, I.; Faustino-Eslava, D. V.; Muksin, U.; Gallardo-Zafra, R.; Aguirre, J. J. C.; Bantayan, N. C.; Alam, L.; Dakey, S.

2017-02-01

Study on seismic hazard, building vulnerability and human loss assessment become substantial for building education institutions since the building are used by a lot of students, lecturers, researchers, and guests. The University of the Philippines, Los Banos (UPLB) located in an earthquake prone area. The earthquake could cause structural damage and injury of the UPLB community. We have conducted earthquake assessment in different magnitude and time to predict the posibility of ground shaking, building vulnerability and estimated the number of casualty of the UPLB community. The data preparation in this study includes the earthquake scenario modeling using Intensity Prediction Equations (IPEs) for shallow crustal shaking attenuation to produce intensity map of bedrock and surface. Earthquake model was generated from the segment IV and the segment X of the Valley Fault System (VFS). Building vulnerability of different type of building was calculated using fragility curve of the Philippines building. The population data for each building in various occupancy time, damage ratio, and injury ratio data were used to compute the number of casualties. The result reveals that earthquake model from the segment IV and the segment X of the VFS could generate earthquake intensity between 7.6 - 8.1 MMI in the UPLB campus. The 7.7 Mw earthquake (scenario I) from the segment IV could cause 32% - 51% damage of building and 6.5 Mw earthquake (scenario II) occurring in the segment X could cause 18% - 39% structural damage of UPLB buildings. If the earthquake occurs at 2 PM (day-time), it could injure 10.2% - 18.8% for the scenario I and could injure 7.2% - 15.6% of UPLB population in scenario II. The 5 Pm event, predicted will injure 5.1%-9.4% in the scenario I, and 3.6%-7.8% in scenario II. A nighttime event (2 Am) cause injury to students and guests who stay in dormitories. The earthquake is predicted to injure 13 - 66 students and guests in the scenario I and 9 - 47 people in the scenario II. To reduce the number of injuries, the authority of UPLB have to carry out the buildings restoration, set up earthquake early warning system in all dormitories, and evacuation sign board.

A Vulnerability Index and Analysis for the Road Network of Rural Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, Andreas; Stötzer, Johanna; Kubisch, Susanne; Dittrich, Andre; Keller, Sina

2017-04-01

Natural hazards impose considerable threats to the physical and socio-economic wellbeing of people, a fact, which is well understood and investigated for many regions. However, not only people are vulnerable. During the last decades, a considerable amount of literature has focussed the particular vulnerability of the critical infrastructure: for example road networks. Considering critical infrastructure, far less reliable information exists for many regions worldwide - particularly, regions outside of the so called developed world. Critical infrastructure is destroyed in many disasters, causing cascade and follow up effects, for instance, impediments during evacuation, rescue and during the resilience phase. These circumstances, which are general enough to be applied to most regions, aggravate in regions characterized by high disparities between the urban and the rural sphere. Peripheral rural areas are especially prone to get isolated due to defects of the few roads which connect them to larger urban centres (where, frequently, disaster and emergency actors are situated). The rural area of Central Chile is a appropriate example for these circumstances. It is prone to destruction by several geo-hazards and furthermore, characterized by the aforementioned disparities. Past disasters, e.g. the 1991 Cerro Hudson eruption and the 2010 Maule earthquake have led to follow up effects (e.g. farmers, being unable to evacuate their animals due to road failures in the first case, and difficultires to evacuate people from places such as Caleta Tumbes or Dichato, which are connected by just a single road only in the second). The contribution develops a methodology to investigate into the critical infrastructure of such places. It develops a remoteness index for Chile, which identifies remote, peripheral rural areas, prone to get isolated due to road network failures during disasters. The approach is graph based. It offers particular advantages for regions like rural Chile since 1. it does not require traffic flow data which do not exist, 2. identifies peripheral areas particularly well, 3. identifies both nodes (places) prone to isolation and edges (roads) critical for the connectivity of rural areas, 4. based on a mathematical structure, it implies several possible planning solutions to reduce vulnerability of the critical infrastructure and people dependent on it. The methodology is presented and elaborated theoretically. Afterwards, it is demonstrated on an actual dataset from central Chile. It is demonstrated, how the methodology can be applied to derive planning solutions for peripheral rural areas.

Earthquake precursory events around epicenters and local active faults; the cases of two inland earthquakes in Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valizadeh Alvan, H.; Mansor, S.; Haydari Azad, F.

2012-12-01

The possibility of earthquake prediction in the frame of several days to few minutes before its occurrence has stirred interest among researchers, recently. Scientists believe that the new theories and explanations of the mechanism of this natural phenomenon are trustable and can be the basis of future prediction efforts. During the last thirty years experimental researches resulted in some pre-earthquake events which are now recognized as confirmed warning signs (precursors) of past known earthquakes. With the advances in in-situ measurement devices and data analysis capabilities and the emergence of satellite-based data collectors, monitoring the earth's surface is now a regular work. Data providers are supplying researchers from all over the world with high quality and validated imagery and non-imagery data. Surface Latent Heat Flux (SLHF) or the amount of energy exchange in the form of water vapor between the earth's surface and atmosphere has been frequently reported as an earthquake precursor during the past years. The accumulated stress in the earth's crust during the preparation phase of earthquakes is said to be the main cause of temperature anomalies weeks to days before the main event and subsequent shakes. Chemical and physical interactions in the presence of underground water lead to higher water evaporation prior to inland earthquakes. On the other hand, the leak of Radon gas occurred as rocks break during earthquake preparation causes the formation of airborne ions and higher Air Temperature (AT) prior to main event. Although co-analysis of direct and indirect observation for precursory events is considered as a promising method for future successful earthquake prediction, without proper and thorough knowledge about the geological setting, atmospheric factors and geodynamics of the earthquake-prone regions we will not be able to identify anomalies due to seismic activity in the earth's crust. Active faulting is a key factor in identification of the source and propagation of seismic waves. In many cases, active faults are capable of buildup and sudden release of tectonic stress. Hence, monitoring the active fault systems near epicentral regions of past earthquakes would be a necessity. In this paper, we try to detect possible anomalies in SLHF and AT during two moderate earthquakes of 6 - 6.5 M in Iran and explain the relationships between the seismic activities prior to these earthquake and active faulting in the area. Our analysis shows abnormal SLHF 5~10 days before these earthquakes. Meaningful anomalous concentrations usually occurred in the epicentral area. On the other hand, spatial distributions of these variations were in accordance with the local active faults. It is concluded that the anomalous increase in SLHF shows great potential in providing early warning of a disastrous earthquake, provided that there is a better understanding of the background noise due to the seasonal effects and climatic factors involved. Changes in near surface air temperature along nearby active faults, one or two weeks before the earthquakes, although not as significant as SLHF changes, can be considered as another earthquake indicator.

Evidence for earthquake triggering of large landslides in coastal Oregon, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schulz, W.H.; Galloway, S.L.; Higgins, J.D.

2012-01-01

Landslides are ubiquitous along the Oregon coast. Many are large, deep slides in sedimentary rock and are dormant or active only during the rainy season. Morphology, observed movement rates, and total movement suggest that many are at least several hundreds of years old. The offshore Cascadia subduction zone produces great earthquakes every 300–500 years that generate tsunami that inundate the coast within minutes. Many slides and slide-prone areas underlie tsunami evacuation and emergency response routes. We evaluated the likelihood of existing and future large rockslides being triggered by pore-water pressure increase or earthquake-induced ground motion using field observations and modeling of three typical slides. Monitoring for 2–9 years indicated that the rockslides reactivate when pore pressures exceed readily identifiable levels. Measurements of total movement and observed movement rates suggest that two of the rockslides are 296–336 years old (the third could not be dated). The most recent great Cascadia earthquake was M 9.0 and occurred during January 1700, while regional climatological conditions have been stable for at least the past 600 years. Hence, the estimated ages of the slides support earthquake ground motion as their triggering mechanism. Limit-equilibrium slope-stability modeling suggests that increased pore-water pressures could not trigger formation of the observed slides, even when accompanied by progressive strength loss. Modeling suggests that ground accelerations comparable to those recorded at geologically similar sites during the M 9.0, 11 March 2011 Japan Trench subduction-zone earthquake would trigger formation of the rockslides. Displacement modeling following the Newmark approach suggests that the rockslides would move only centimeters upon coseismic formation; however, coseismic reactivation of existing rockslides would involve meters of displacement. Our findings provide better understanding of the dynamic coastal bluff environment and hazards from future subduction-zone earthquakes.

Documenting Bronze Age Akrotiri on Thera Using Laser Scanning, Image-Based Modelling and Geophysical Prospection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trinks, I.; Wallner, M.; Kucera, M.; Verhoeven, G.; Torrejón Valdelomar, J.; Löcker, K.; Nau, E.; Sevara, C.; Aldrian, L.; Neubauer, E.; Klein, M.

2017-02-01

The excavated architecture of the exceptional prehistoric site of Akrotiri on the Greek island of Thera/Santorini is endangered by gradual decay, damage due to accidents, and seismic shocks, being located on an active volcano in an earthquake-prone area. Therefore, in 2013 and 2014 a digital documentation project has been conducted with support of the National Geographic Society in order to generate a detailed digital model of Akrotiri's architecture using terrestrial laser scanning and image-based modeling. Additionally, non-invasive geophysical prospection has been tested in order to investigate its potential to explore and map yet buried archaeological remains. This article describes the project and the generated results.

Distribution and sedimentary characteristics of tsunami deposits along the Cascadia margin of western North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peters, R.; Jaffe, B.; Gelfenbaum, G.

2007-01-01

Tsunami deposits have been found at more than 60 sites along the Cascadia margin of Western North America, and here we review and synthesize their distribution and sedimentary characteristics based on the published record. Cascadia tsunami deposits are best preserved, and most easily identified, in low-energy coastal environments such as tidal marshes, back-barrier marshes and coastal lakes where they occur as anomalous layers of sand within peat and mud. They extend up to a kilometer inland in open coastal settings and several kilometers up river valleys. They are distinguished from other sediments by a combination of sedimentary character and stratigraphic context. Recurrence intervals range from 300-1000??years with an average of 500-600??years. The tsunami deposits have been used to help evaluate and mitigate tsunami hazards in Cascadia. They show that the Cascadia subduction zone is prone to great earthquakes that generate large tsunamis. The inclusion of tsunami deposits on inundation maps, used in conjunction with results from inundation models, allows a more accurate assessment of areas subject to tsunami inundation. The application of sediment transport models can help estimate tsunami flow velocity and wave height, parameters which are necessary to help establish evacuation routes and plan development in tsunami prone areas. ?? 2007.

Engineering geological aspect of Gorkha Earthquake 2015, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, Basanta Raj; Andermann, Christoff; Cook, Kristen

2016-04-01

Strong shaking by earthquake causes massif landsliding with severe effects on infrastructure and human lives. The distribution of landslides and other hazards are depending on the combination of earthquake and local characteristics which influence the dynamic response of hillslopes. The Himalayas are one of the most active mountain belts with several kilometers of relief and is very prone to catastrophic mass failure. Strong and shallow earthquakes are very common and cause wide spread collapse of hillslopes, increasing the background landslide rate by several magnitude. The Himalaya is facing many small and large earthquakes in the past i.e. earthquakes i.e. Bihar-Nepal earthquake 1934 (Ms 8.2); Large Kangra earthquake of 1905 (Ms 7.8); Gorkha earthquake 2015 (Mw 7.8). The Mw 7.9 Gorkha earthquake has occurred on and around the main Himalayan Thrust with a hypocentral depth of 15 km (GEER 2015) followed by Mw 7.3 aftershock in Kodari causing 8700+ deaths and leaving hundreds of thousands of homeless. Most of the 3000 aftershocks located by National Seismological Center (NSC) within the first 45 days following the Gorkha Earthquake are concentrated in a narrow 40 km-wide band at midcrustal to shallow depth along the strike of the southern slope of the high Himalaya (Adhikari et al. 2015) and the ground shaking was substantially lower in the short-period range than would be expected for and earthquake of this magnitude (Moss et al. 2015). The effect of this earthquake is very unique in affected areas by showing topographic effect, liquefaction and land subsidence. More than 5000 landslides were triggered by this earthquake (Earthquake without Frontiers, 2015). Most of the landslides are shallow and occurred in weathered bedrock and appear to have mobilized primarily as raveling failures, rock slides and rock falls. Majority of landslides are limited to a zone which runs east-west, approximately parallel the lesser and higher Himalaya. There are numerous cracks in the ground especially in the epicenter area. Similarly, liquefaction occurred in the different parts of Kathmandu valley. However, the recording in KATNP and DMG indicate that the ground motions that resulted from the quake were not strong enough to fully weaken liquefiable materials and in most cases incipient or "marginal" liquefaction was observed. Here, we will present a compilation of the different types of mass wasting that have occurred in this region and discuss their location and hazard potential for local communities. References: Adhikari, L.B., Gautam, U.P., Koirala, B.P., Bhattarai, M., Kandel, T., Gupta, R.M., Timsina, C., Maharjan, N., Maharjan, K., Dhahal, T., Hoste-Colomer, R., Cano, Y., Dandine, M., Guhem, A., Merrer, S., Roudil, P., Bollinger, L., 2015, The aftershock sequence of the 2015 April 25 Gorkha-Nepal Earthquake, Geophysical Journal International, v. 203 (3), pp. 2119-2124. Earthquake Without Frontiers, 2015, http://ewf.nerc.ac.uk/2015/05/12/nepal-update-on-landslide-hazard-following-12-may-2015-earthquake/ GEER, 2015: Geotechnical Extreme Event Reconnaissance http://www.geerassociation.org Moss, R.E.S., Thompson, E.M., Kieffer, D.S., Tiwari, B., Hashash, Y.M.A., Acharya, I., Adhikari B.R., Asimaki, D., Clahan, K.B., Collins, B.D., Dahal, S., Jibson, R.W., Khadka, D., Machdonald, A. Madugo C.L., Mason, H.B., Pehlivan., M., Rayamajhi, D. and Upreti. S., 2015, Geotechnical Effects of the 2015 AMgnitude 7.8 Gorkah, Nepal, Earthquake and Aftershocks, seismological Research Letters, v. 86(6), PP. 1514-1523 National Seismoligical Center, 2015, http://www.seismonepal.gov.np/

An Investigation of Commercial Off-the-Shelf Wireless in Support of Complex Humanitarian Disaster Operations in the Argentine Army

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

Argentina is home to a Jewish community of 200,000, the largest in Latin America (BBC, 2006). Both of these facts have introduced Argentina and the...Argentina, a region highly prone to seismic events. This moderate to strong earthquake (estimated moment magnitudes range from 6.7 to 7.8) destroyed...earthquake took place in San Juan province. It is recorded as a major seismic movement that took place in Argentina and measured magnitude 7.4 on the

Assessing Households Preparedness for Earthquakes: An Exploratory Study in the Development of a Valid and Reliable Persian-version Tool.

PubMed

Ardalan, Ali; Sohrabizadeh, Sanaz

2016-02-25

Iran is placed among countries suffering from the highest number of earthquake casualties. Household preparedness, as one component of risk reduction efforts, is often supported in quake-prone areas. In Iran, lack of a valid and reliable household preparedness tool was reported by previous disaster studies. This study is aimed to fill this gap by developing a valid and reliable tool for assessing household preparedness in the event of an earthquake.  This survey was conducted through three phases including literature review and focus group discussions with the participation of eight key informants, validity measurements and reliability measurements. Field investigation was completed with the participation of 450 households within three provinces of Iran. Content validity, construct validity, the use of factor analysis; internal consistency using Cronbach's alpha coefficient, and test-retest reliability were carried out to develop the tool.  Based on the CVIs, ranging from 0.80 to 0.100, and exploratory factor analysis with factor loading of more than 0.5, all items were valid. The amount of Cronbach's alpha (0.7) and test-retest examination by Spearman correlations indicated that the scale was also reliable. The final instrument consisted of six categories and 18 questions including actions at the time of earthquakes, nonstructural safety, structural safety, hazard map, communications, drill, and safety skills.  Using a Persian-version tool that is adjusted to the socio-cultural determinants and native language may result in more trustful information on earthquake preparedness. It is suggested that disaster managers and researchers apply this tool in their future household preparedness projects. Further research is needed to make effective policies and plans for transforming preparedness knowledge into behavior.

Earthquakes and Children: The Role of Psychologists with Families and Communities

PubMed Central

Margolin, Gayla; Ramos, Michelle C.; Guran, Elyse L.

2010-01-01

The 2008 Sichuan Province earthquake and 2005 Pakistan earthquake are examples of natural disasters that took an unimaginable toll on children. In such disaster management contexts, family members as well as health care and school personnel are the first-line responders and are natural sources of continued social support as children recover. Although psychologists have increasingly sophisticated understandings of post-disaster reactions and strategies for helping children and adolescents cope with trauma, models for responding to mass catastrophes are limited, particularly in geographically remote communities and in regions where mental health services are stigmatizing. With children's well-being subsequent to earthquakes inextricably linked to family and community, psychologists can make important contributions in three spheres: (a) coordinating and activating collaborations within children's existing social contexts to develop post-earthquake interventions; (b) designing prevention and preparedness programs focused on the emotional needs of children in earthquake-prone communities; and (c) conducting research on interventions and recovery with particular attention to developmental stage, socio-cultural-economic contexts, and the similarities versus differences across various types of disasters. PMID:20428504

An Integrated Approach for Urban Earthquake Vulnerability Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Düzgün, H. S.; Yücemen, M. S.; Kalaycioglu, H. S.

2009-04-01

The earthquake risk for an urban area has increased over the years due to the increasing complexities in urban environments. The main reasons are the location of major cities in hazard prone areas, growth in urbanization and population and rising wealth measures. In recent years physical examples of these factors are observed through the growing costs of major disasters in urban areas which have stimulated a demand for in-depth evaluation of possible strategies to manage the large scale damaging effects of earthquakes. Understanding and formulation of urban earthquake risk requires consideration of a wide range of risk aspects, which can be handled by developing an integrated approach. In such an integrated approach, an interdisciplinary view should be incorporated into the risk assessment. Risk assessment for an urban area requires prediction of vulnerabilities related to elements at risk in the urban area and integration of individual vulnerability assessments. However, due to complex nature of an urban environment, estimating vulnerabilities and integrating them necessities development of integrated approaches in which vulnerabilities of social, economical, structural (building stock and infrastructure), cultural and historical heritage are estimated for a given urban area over a given time period. In this study an integrated urban earthquake vulnerability assessment framework, which considers vulnerability of urban environment in a holistic manner and performs the vulnerability assessment for the smallest administrative unit, namely at neighborhood scale, is proposed. The main motivation behind this approach is the inability to implement existing vulnerability assessment methodologies for countries like Turkey, where the required data are usually missing or inadequate and decision makers seek for prioritization of their limited resources in risk reduction in the administrative districts from which they are responsible. The methodology integrates socio-economical, structural, coastal, ground condition, organizational vulnerabilities, as well as accessibility to critical services within the framework. The proposed framework has the following eight components: Seismic hazard analysis, soil response analysis, tsunami inundation analysis, structural vulnerability analysis, socio-economic vulnerability analysis, accessibility to critical services, GIS-based integrated vulnerability assessment, and visualization of vulnerabilities in 3D virtual city model The integrated model for various vulnerabilities obtained for the urban area is developed in GIS environment by using individual vulnerability assessments for considered elements at risk and serve for establishing the backbone of the spatial decision support system. The stages followed in the model are: Determination of a common mapping unit for each aspect of urban earthquake vulnerability, formation of a geo-database for the vulnerabilities, evaluation of urban vulnerability based on multi attribute utility theory with various weighting algorithms, mapping of the evaluated integrated earthquake risk in geographic information systems (GIS) in the neighborhood scale. The framework is also applicable to larger geographical mapping scales, for example, the building scale. When illustrating the results in building scale, 3-D visualizations with remote sensing data is used so that decision-makers can easily interpret the outputs. The proposed vulnerability assessment framework is flexible and can easily be applied to urban environments at various geographical scales with different mapping units. The obtained total vulnerability maps for the urban area provide a baseline for the development of risk reduction strategies for the decision makers. Moreover, as several aspects of elements at risk for an urban area is considered through vulnerability analyses, effect on changes in vulnerability conditions on the total can easily be determined. The developed approach also enables decision makers to monitor temporal and spatial changes in the urban environment due to implementation of risk reduction strategies.

Lack of Dependence of Dynamic Triggering on the Timing within the Seismic Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cattania, C.; McGuire, J. J.; Collins, J. A.

2009-12-01

Numerical models predict that dynamic triggering of earthquakes is more likely when faults are close to failure (e.g. late in their earthquake cycle), and laboratory experiments have supported this hypothesis. We attempted to test this idea by analysing data on three adjacent transform faults of the East Pacific Rise which have a relatively well defined, quasiperiodic seismic cycle with a median repeat time of 5 years. Moreover, the Gofar, Discovery and Quebrada transform faults share several seismicity properties with continental geothermal areas, including high geothermal gradients, high seismicity rates, and frequent earthquake swarms, that suggest they may be prone to dynamic triggering. We analyze an earthquake catalog of over 100,000 events recorded in 2008 by a network of 38 Ocean Bottom Seismometers. We extract Mw>6.3 mainshocks from the Global CMT catalog, and perform the β test for an array of time intervals covering from 5 hours before to 10 hours after the low-frequency Rayleigh wave arrival. To verify the presence of common seismicity patterns, β plots are also stacked for multiple earthquakes. We observe triggering after the May 12th Wenchuan earthquake. On the Quebrada transform a burst of seismicity starts during the wavetrain; in Gofar there is no response during the wave, but an increase in seismicity (β=5.08) starts about 2 h later; no triggering is visible on the Discovery fault. A Mw=6.0 earthquake ruptured the Gofar transform on September 18th, and triggered seismicity on Discovery: ~60 earthquakes (β=15.3), starting 1h after the wave arrival. We have no data from Quebrada for this period. Other instances of triggering are dubious. Stacked β plots suggest delayed triggering (Δt>1h) in Gofar and Discovery, but the statistical significance of these results is unclear. From a comparison of different fault segments, triggering does not appear to be more common at late stages in the seismic cycle. Instead, the events triggered by the largest dynamic stresses concentrate in the regions between rupture zones. This suggests that changes in rock composition or fluid content may make these areas act as barriers to rupture propagation as well as facilitating dynamic triggering. Using the Rate-and-State seismicity model, we estimate that the effective normal stress where triggering occurs: is extremely low (σ<0.1MPa in Quebrada and σ<0.5MPa on Discovery), implying a nearly lithostatic pore pressure.

Earthquake induced landslide hazard: a multidisciplinary field observatory in the Marmara SUPERSITE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bigarré, Pascal

2014-05-01

Earthquake-triggered landslides have an increasing disastrous impact in seismic regions due to the fast growing urbanization and infrastructures. Just considering disasters from the last fifteen years, among which the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, these events generated tens of thousands of coseismic landslides. Those resulted in amazing death toll and considerable damages, affecting the regional landscape including its hydrological main features. Despite a strong impetus in research during past decades, knowledge on those geohazards is still fragmentary, while databases of high quality observational data are lacking. These phenomena call for further collaborative researches aiming eventually to enhance preparedness and crisis management. As one of the three SUPERSITE concept FP7 projects dealing with long term high level monitoring of major natural hazards at the European level, the MARSITE project gathers research groups in a comprehensive monitoring activity developed in the Sea of Marmara Region, one of the most densely populated parts of Europe and rated at high seismic risk level since the 1999 Izmit and Duzce devastating earthquakes. Besides the seismic threat, landslides in Turkey and in this region constitute an important source of loss. The 1999 Earthquake caused extensive landslides while tsunami effects were observed during the post-event surveys in several places along the coasts of the Izmit bay. The 6th Work Package of MARSITE project gathers 9 research groups to study earthquake-induced landslides focusing on two sub-regional areas of high interest. First, the Cekmece-Avcilar peninsula, located westwards of Istanbul, is a highly urbanized concentrated landslide prone area, showing high susceptibility to both rainfalls while affected by very significant seismic site effects. Second, the off-shore entrance of the Izmit Gulf, close to the termination of the surface rupture of the 1999 earthquake, that shows an important slump mass facing the Istanbul coastline. A multidisciplinary research program based on pre-existing studies has been designed with objectives and tasks linked to constrain and tackle progressively some challenging issues related to data integration, modeling, monitoring and mapping technologies. Concerning the on-shore area, this program includes the refined analysis of the seismic site response, the permanent multi-parameter ground monitoring of a representative unstable slope as well as the in-depth slope stability analysis based on the stress-strain dynamic numerical modelling approach. Hyperspectral and Dinsar imagery technologies are also deployed to complete inventory and observational information. The development of a dynamic GIS tool featuring capabilities to integrate and process very different types of data, and up-date susceptibility maps based on near to real-time rainfall-seismic shaking input, is currently undertaken. Moreover, the research is gaining high profit of a vast drilling program undertaken by the Istanbul Metropolitan Area, aiming to yield a detailed geological and geotechnical characterization of the slopes. Also included in the objectives is to test a landslide early warning system. As regards the selected off-shore area, high resolution geophysical marine surveys are being conducted to complete its geomorphological description to help in mapping possible incipient mass movements. This is especially expected to provide better-constrained input for both laboratory testing and numerical modeling of tsunami scenarios thank to a unique lab-scale tsunami channel.

Rebounding from Tragedy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kennedy, Mike

2009-01-01

Some regions are prone to hurricanes, tornadoes, floods or earthquakes. Other tragedies, such as fires or acts of violence, can occur just about anywhere. Regardless of the specific type of disaster, schools and universities must be prepared to cope with crises that can disrupt operations, destroy facilities, and displace students and staff.…

Integrated Earthquake Risk Assessment in the Kathmandu Valley - A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaper, Julia; Anhorn, Johannes; Khazai, Bijan; Nüsser, Marcus

2013-04-01

Rapid urban growth is a process which can be observed in cities worldwide. Managing these growing urban areas has become a major challenge for both governing bodies and citizens. Situated not only in a highly earthquake and landslide-prone area, but comprising also the cultural and political capital of Nepal, the fast expanding Kathmandu Valley in the Himalayan region is of particular interest. Vulnerability assessment has been an important tool for spatial planning in this already densely populated area. The magnitude 8.4 earthquake of Bihar in 1934 cost 8600 Nepalis their lives, destroyed 20% of the Kathmandu building stock and heavily damaged another 40%. Since then, Kathmandu has grown into a hub with over a million inhabitants. Rapid infrastructure and population growth aggravate the vulnerability conditions, particularly in the core area of Metropolitan Kathmandu. We propose an integrative framework for vulnerability and risk in Kathmandu Valley. In order to move towards a more systemic and integrated approach, we focus on interactions between natural hazards, physically engineered systems and society. High resolution satellite images are used to identify structural vulnerability of the building stock within the study area. Using object-based image analysis, the spatial dynamics of urban growth are assessed and validated using field data. Complementing this is the analysis of socio-economic attributes gained from databases and field surveys. An indicator-based vulnerability and resilience index will be operationalized using multi-attribute value theory and statistical methods such as principal component analysis. The results allow for a socio-economic comparison of places and their relative potential for harm and loss. The objective in this task is to better understand the interactions between nature and society, engineered systems and built environments through the development of an interdisciplinary framework on systemic seismic risk and vulnerability. Data from incidences of large-scale Himalayan earthquake disasters will form the basis for a multi-temporal analysis. By analyzing different time slots we identify development paths and building integrity shifts in the light of dynamic urbanization processes. Hereby, future trends and spatial scenarios can be developed. We suggest a goal oriented indicator evaluation process to compare different development scenarios. This serves as an orientation for spatial planning strategies for local and international stakeholders.

NASA Applied Sciences Disasters Program Support for the September 2017 Mexico Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glasscoe, M. T.; Kirschbaum, D.; Torres-Perez, J. L.; Yun, S. H.; Owen, S. E.; Hua, H.; Fielding, E. J.; Liang, C.; Bekaert, D. P.; Osmanoglu, B.; Amini, R.; Green, D. S.; Murray, J. J.; Stough, T.; Struve, J. C.; Seepersad, J.; Thompson, V.

2017-12-01

The 8 September M 8.1 Tehuantepec and 19 September M 7.1 Puebla earthquakes were among the largest earthquakes recorded in Mexico. These two events caused widespread damage, affecting several million people and causing numerous casualties. A team of event coordinators in the NASA Applied Sciences Program activated soon after these devastating earthquakes in order to support decision makers in Mexico, using NASA modeling and international remote sensing capabilities to generate decision support products to aid in response and recovery. The NASA Disasters Program promotes the use of Earth observations to improve the prediction of, preparation for, response to, and recovery from natural and technological disasters. For these two events, the Disasters Program worked with Mexico's space agency (Agencia Espacial Mexico, AEM) and the National Center for Prevention of Disasters (Centro Nacional de Prevención de Desastres, CENAPRED) to generate products to support response, decision-making, and recovery. Products were also provided to academic partners, technical institutions, and field responders to support response. In addition, the Program partnered with the US Geological Survey (USGS), Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA), and other partners in order to provide information to federal and domestic agencies that were supporting event response. Leveraging the expertise of investigators at NASA Centers, products such as landslide susceptibility maps, precipitation models, and radar based damage assessments and surface deformation maps were generated and used by AEM, CENAPRED, and others during the event. These were used by AEM in collaboration with other government agencies in Mexico to make appropriate decisions for mapping damage, rescue and recovery, and informing the population regarding areas prone to potential risk. We will provide an overview of the response activities and data products generated in support of the earthquake response, partnerships with domestic and international partners, and preliminary feedback from end-user partners in Mexico during response efforts following these two earthquakes.

The evaluation of damage mechanism of unreinforced masonry buildings after Van (2011) and Elazig (2010) Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Güney, D.; Aydin, E.; Öztürk, B.

2015-07-01

On March 8th, 2010 Karakocan-Elazig earthquake of magnitude 6.0 occurred at a region where masonry and adobe construction is very common. Karakocan-Elazig is located in a high seismicity region on Eastern Anatolian Fault System (EAFS). Due to the earthquake, 42 people were killed and 14’113 buildings were damaged. Another city, Van located at South east of Turkey is hit by earthquakes with M = 7.2 occurred on October 23rd, 2011 at 13:41 (local time), whose epicenter was about 16 km north of Van (Tabanli village) and M = 5.6 on November 9th, 2011 with an epicenter near the town of Edremit, south of Van and caused the loss of life and heavy damages. Both earthquakes killed 644 people and 2608 people were injured. Approximately 10’000 buildings were seriously damaged. There are many traditional types of structures existing in the region hit by earthquakes (both Van and Elazig). These buildings were built as adobe, unreinforced masonry or mixed type. These types of buildings are very common in rural areas (especially south and east) of Turkey because of easy workmanship and cheap construction cost. Many of those traditional type structures experienced serious damages. The use of masonry is very common in some of the world's most hazard-prone regions, such as in Latin America, Africa, the Indian subcontinent and other parts of Asia, the Middle East, and southern Europe. Based on damage and failure mechanism of those buildings, the parameters affecting the seismic performance of those traditional buildings are analyzed in this paper. The foundation type, soil conditions, production method of the masonry blocks, construction method, the geometry of the masonry walls, workmanship quality, existence of wooden beams, type of roof, mortar between adobe blocks are studied in order to understand the reason of damage for these types of buildings.

The Correlation of Geo-Ecological Environment and Mountain Urban planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Chun; Zeng, Wei

2018-01-01

As a special area with the complex geological structure, mountain city is more prone to geological disasters. Due to air pollution, ground subsidence, serious water pollution, earthquakes and floods geo-ecological environment problems have become increasingly serious, mountain urban planning is facing more severe challenges. Therefore, this article bases on the correlation research of geo-ecological environment and mountain urban planning, and re-examins mountain urban planning from the perspective of geo-ecological, coordinates the relationship between the human and nature by geo-ecological thinking, raises the questions which urban planning need to pay attention. And advocates creating an integrated system of geo-ecological and mountain urban planning, analysis the status and dynamics of present mountain urban planning.

The third hans cloos lecture. Urban landslides: Socioeconomic impacts and overview of mitigative strategies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schuster, R.L.; Highland, L.M.

2007-01-01

As a result of population pressures, hillsides in the world's urban areas are being developed at an accelerating rate. This development increases the risk for urban landslides triggered by rainfall or earthquake activity. To counter this risk, four approaches have been employed by landslide managers and urban planners: (1) restricting development in landslide-prone areas; (2) implementing and enforcing excavation, grading, and construction codes; (3) protecting existing developments by physical mitigation measures and (4) developing and installing monitoring and warning systems. Where they have been utilized, these approaches generally have been effective in reducing the risk due to landslide hazards. In addition to these practices, landslide insurance holds promise as a mitigative measure by reducing the financial impact of landslides on individual property owners. Until recently, however, such insurance has not been widely available and, where it is available, it is so expensive that it has been little used. ?? Springer-Verlag 2006.

Geospatial Modelling Approach for Interlinking of Rivers: A Case Study of Vamsadhara and Nagavali River Systems in Srikakulam, Andhra Pradesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swathi Lakshmi, A.; Saran, S.; Srivastav, S. K.; Krishna Murthy, Y. V. N.

2014-11-01

India is prone to several natural disasters such as floods, droughts, cyclones, landslides and earthquakes on account of its geoclimatic conditions. But the most frequent and prominent disasters are floods and droughts. So to reduce the impact of floods and droughts in India, interlinking of rivers is one of the best solutions to transfer the surplus flood waters to deficit/drought prone areas. Geospatial modelling provides a holistic approach to generate probable interlinking routes of rivers based on existing geoinformatics tools and technologies. In the present study, SRTM DEM and AWiFS datasets coupled with land-use/land -cover, geomorphology, soil and interpolated rainfall surface maps have been used to identify the potential routes in geospatial domain for interlinking of Vamsadhara and Nagavali River Systems in Srikakulam district, Andhra Pradesh. The first order derivatives are derived from DEM and road, railway and drainage networks have been delineated using the satellite data. The inundation map has been prepared using AWiFS derived Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI). The Drought prone areas were delineated on the satellite image as per the records declared by Revenue Department, Srikakulam. Majority Rule Based (MRB) aggregation technique is performed to optimize the resolution of obtained data in order to retain the spatial variability of the classes. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) based Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) is implemented to obtain the prioritization of parameters like geomorphology, soil, DEM, slope, and land use/land-cover. A likelihood grid has been generated and all the thematic layers are overlaid to identify the potential grids for routing optimization. To give a better routing map, impedance map has been generated and several other constraints are considered. The implementation of canal construction needs extra cost in some areas. The developed routing map is published into OGC WMS services using open source GeoServer and proposed routing service can be visualized over Bhuvan portal (http://www.bhuvan.nrsc.gov.in/).Thus the obtained routing map of proposed canals focuses on transferring the surplus waters to drought prone areas to solve the problem of water scarcity, to properly utilize the flood waters for irrigational purposes and also help in recharging of groundwater. Similar methodology can be adopted in other interlinking of river systems.

Variations in City Exposure and Sensitivity to Tsunami Hazards in Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan

2007-01-01

Evidence of past events and modeling of potential future events suggest that tsunamis are significant threats to Oregon coastal communities. Although a potential tsunami-inundation zone from a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake has been delineated, what is in this area and how communities have chosen to develop within it have not been documented. A vulnerability assessment using geographic-information-system tools was conducted to describe tsunami-prone landscapes on the Oregon coast and to document city variations in developed land, human populations, economic assets, and critical facilities relative to the tsunami-inundation zone. Results indicate that the Oregon tsunami-inundation zone contains approximately 22,201 residents (four percent of the total population in the seven coastal counties), 14,857 employees (six percent of the total labor force), and 53,714 day-use visitors on average every day to coastal Oregon State Parks within the tsunami-inundation zone. The tsunami-inundation zone also contains 1,829 businesses that generate approximately $1.9 billion in annual sales volume (seven and five percent of study-area totals, respectively) and tax parcels with a combined total value of $8.2 billion (12 percent of the study-area total). Although occupancy values are not known for each facility, the tsunami-inundation zone also contains numerous dependent-population facilities (for example, adult-residential-care facilities, child-day-care facilities, and schools), public venues (for example, religious organizations and libraries), and critical facilities (for example, police stations). Racial diversity of residents in the tsunami-inundation zone is low, with 96 percent identifying themselves as White, either alone or in combination with one or more race. Twenty-two percent of the residents in the tsunami-inundation zone are over 65 years in age, 36 percent of the residents live on unincorporated county lands, and 37 percent of the households are renter occupied. The employee population in the tsunami-inundation zone is largely in accommodation and food services, retail trade, manufacturing, and arts and entertainment sectors. Results indicate that vulnerability, described here by exposure (the amount of assets in tsunami-prone areas) and sensitivity (the relative percentage of assets in tsunami-prone areas) varies considerably among 26 incorporated cities in Oregon. City exposure and sensitivity to tsunami hazards is highest in the northern portion of the coast. The City of Seaside in Clatsop County has the highest exposure, the highest sensitivity, and the highest combined relative exposure and sensitivity to tsunamis. Results also indicate that the amount of city assets in tsunami-prone areas is weakly related to the amount of a community's land in this zone; the percentage of a city's assets, however, is strongly related to the percentage of its land that is in the tsunami-prone areas. This report will further the dialogue on societal risk to tsunami hazards in Oregon and help identify future preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery planning needs within coastal cities and economic sectors of the state of Oregon.

Development of a national system for prevention and mitigation of earthquake damages to people and properties, and the reduction of costs related to earthquakes for the Italian Government

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Console, R.; Greco, M.; Colangelo, A.; Cioè, A.; Trivigno, L.; Chiappini, M.; Ponzo, F.

2015-12-01

Recognizing that the Italian territory is prone to disasters in connection with seismic and hydro-geological risk, it has become necessary to define novel regulations and viable solutions aimed at conveying the economical resources of the Italian Government, too often utilized for the management of post-event situations, towards prevention activities. The work synthetically presents the project developed by the CGIAM together with the INGV, and open to collaboration with other Italian and International partners. This project is aimed at the development of a National System for prevention and mitigation of the earthquakes damages, through the definition of a model that achieves the mitigation of the building collapsing risk and the consequent reduction of casualties. Such a model is based on two main issues a) a correct evaluation of risk, defined as a reliable assessment of the hazard expected at a given site and of the vulnerability of civil and industrial buildings, b) setting up of novel strategies for the safety of buildings. The hazard assessment is pursued through the application of innovative multidisciplinary geophysical methodologies and the application of a physically based earthquake simulator. The structural vulnerability of buildings is estimated by means of simplified techniques based on few representative parameters (such as different structural typologies, dynamic soil-structure interaction, etc.) and, for detailed studies, standard protocols for model updating techniques. We analyze, through numerical and experimental approaches, new solutions for the use of innovative materials, and new techniques for the reduction of seismic vulnerability of structural, non-structural and accessorial elements, including low cost type. The project activities are initially implemented on a study area in Southern Italy (Calabria) selected because of its tectonic complexity. The results are expected to be applicable for other hazardous seismic areas of Italy.

Keeping focus on earthquakes at school for seismic risk mitigation of the next generations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saraò, Angela; Barnaba, Carla; Peruzza, Laura

2013-04-01

The knowledge of the seismic history of its own territory, the understanding of physical phenomena in response to an earthquake, the changes in the cultural heritage following a strong earthquake, the learning of actions to be taken during and after an earthquake, are piece of information that contribute to keep focus on the seismic hazard and to implement strategies for seismic risk mitigation. The training of new generations, today more than ever subject to rapid forgetting of past events, becomes therefore a key element to increase the perception that earthquakes happened and can happen at anytime and that mitigation actions are the only means to ensure the safety and to reduce damages and human losses. Since several years our institute (OGS) is involved in activities to raise awareness of education on earthquake. We aim to implement education programs with the goal of addressing a critical approach to seismic hazard reduction, differentiating the types of activities according to the age of the students. However, being such kind of activity unfunded, we can act at now only on a very limited number of schools per year. To be effective, the inclusion of the seismic risk issues in school curricula requires specific time and appropriate approaches when planning activities. For this reason, we involve also the teachers as proponents of activities and we encourage them to keep alive memories and discussion on earthquake in the classes. During the past years we acted mainly in the schools of the Friuli Venezia Giulia area (NE Italy), that is an earthquake prone area struck in 1976 by a destructive seismic event (Ms=6.5). We organized short training courses for teachers, we lectured classes, and we led laboratory activities with students. Indeed, being well known that students enjoy classes more when visual and active learning are joined, we propose a program that is composed by seminars, demonstrations and hands-on activities in the classrooms; for high school students we propose summer stages at the OGS Seismological Department. Some examples of education activities we performed during the last two years are here presented. Starting with kids at kindergartens, where we propose play and story-telling activities with the final goal to prepare them on what to do in case an earthquake occurs, we show our experience with the primary and intermediate schools where, through hands-on activities, we reproduce and explain the earthquake phenomenon and its effects. Then we illustrate the work of high school students who, under the guidance of an expert seismologist, designed and performed a microzonation study in Gemona del Friuli, a small town that was severely damaged by the 1976 earthquake. Satisfaction questionnaires and feedback by students and teachers help us to assess the effectiveness of our efforts as well as to improve our next actions.

When the Earth has a Belly-Ache: Young Seismologists at School

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burrato, P.; Nostro, C.; Tertulliani, A.; Winkler, A.; Casale, P.; Marsili, A.; Castellano, C.; Cultrera, G.; Scarlato, P.; Alfonsi, L.; Ciaccio, M.; Frepoli, A.

2004-12-01

The INGV cohoperates with schools of different grades to promote Earth science programs and geophysical knowledge. This is particularly important in areas prone to seismic and volcanic hazards, like Italy. The E&O Group organizes every year school visits to the scientific laboratories of the INGV center of Rome, during which more than 4,000 students interact with scientists and learn about the dynamic Earth. Besides that the E&O Group brings on the road educational activities, carring out projects with schools and partecipating to science festivals. In March 2000 a small size earthquake hit the towns of Subiaco and Agosta, near Rome. This event was strongly felt by teachers and students of the local primary schools, and sprang the idea of a project focused on earthquakes. The aim of the project was to gain knowledge of what causes earthquakes and to familiarize with a phenomenon considered random and unforeseeable. Another goal was to train students and teachers to behave properly during the occurrence of an earthquake. The project was developed starting from the personal experience of the students, with theoretical lessons and practical experiments. The INGV researchers partecipated giving talks and producing educational materials. During the talks they showed that earthquakes are not phenomena so rare and random as thought by most people. They also showed the instruments used to register seismicity, and encouraged kids to produce their own earthquakes jumping close to a portable seismometer. In a second phase the students were divided in groups that investigated different topics of the seismic event, giving a talk to their school mates at the end of the research. The teachers used a cooperative learning approach to stimulate the ability of the kids to team up and work in cooperation. At the end of the project the kids published a book (When the Earth has a belly-ache) and a calendar, that tell about earthquakes using the kid's original drawings. The book illustrates using a kids language, though scientifically correct, what is an earthquake, what can be its effects, and what should be do if an earthquake occurs. The project was presented in a public conference to the local authorities and to the community, extending the issues regarding the natural hazards.

Rapid GNSS and Data Communication System Deployments In Chile and Argentina Following the M8.8 Maule Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blume, F.; Meertens, C. M.; Brooks, B. A.; Bevis, M. G.; Smalley, R.; Parra, H.; Baez, J.

2010-12-01

Because the signal is so big, great earthquakes allow us to make quantum leaps in our understanding of Earth deformation process and material properties. The Maule earthquake, with its occurrence near a large subaerial landmass and the large numbers of instruments available to study it, will surely become one of the most important geophysical events in modern memory. Much of the important signal, however, decays and changes rapidly in the short-term following the event and so a rapid response is necessary. Actually delivering the data from the CGPS response stations, however, represents an intellectual challenge in terms of properly matching the engineering realities with the scientific desiderata. We expect multiple major science advances to come from these data: (1) Understanding earthquake and tsunami-genesis via use of the coseismic displacement field to create the most well-constrained fault slip and tsunami-genesis models. (2) The role of stress loading on both the principal thrust plane and subsidiary planes. (3) The relationship between fault afterslip to the main event as well as to the distribution of aftershocks (4) Study of large aftershocks jointly using conventional seismology and high-rate GPS coseismic displacement seismogram. (5) Rheological behavior of the fault interface. (6) The mechanical response of the bulk earth to large stress perturbations. Within 10 days of the earthquake 20 complete GPS systems were delivered by UNAVCO personnel to IGM and OSU staff in Santiago, and 5 were shipped via diplomatic pouch to Argentina. Consisting of of 10 Trimble NetRS and 15 Topcon GB-1000 receivers, the units were deployed througout the affected area during the following three weeks, using welded-in-place steel tripod monuments driven into soil or drilled into bedrock, or steel masts. Additional GPS hardware was procured from cooperating institutions and donated by GPS manufacturers, and a total of 43 post-earthquake GPS stations are continuously operating in the epicentral area. UNAVCO has developed and deplyed standalone data communications systems at 25 of the stations: (1) the satellite-based Inmarsat Broad Global Area Service (BGAN), (2) ground based cellular internet services provided by a number of telecom companies in Chile and Argentina. Cellular service is economical but prone to disruptions following earthquakes and coverage is limited. BGAN is expensive but robust and globally available. This communication plan has allowed for daily downloads of 15 sec. data and of 1 sec. data recorded during aftershocks of M6.5 and greater. RINEX files from these stations are publicly available at the UNAVCO Facility Archive immediately after data are downloaded, a first for Event Response GPS data. This effort will serve as the type example in the geodetic community for rapid CGPS data communications following a destructive earthquake. The communications system hardware purchased during this response will become part of the UNAVCO pool after one year and will be available for future PI projects and event responses.

The integration of stress, strain, and seismogenic fault data: towards more robust estimates of the earthquake potential in Italy and its surroundings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caporali, Alessandro; Braitenberg, Carla; Burrato, Pierfrancesco; Carafa, Michele; Di Giovambattista, Rita; Gentili, Stefania; Mariucci, Maria Teresa; Montone, Paola; Morsut, Federico; Nicolini, Luca; Pivetta, Tommaso; Roselli, Pamela; Rossi, Giuliana; Valensise, Gian Luca; Vigano, Alfio

2016-04-01

Italy is an earthquake-prone country with a long tradition in observational seismology. For many years, the country's unique historical earthquake record has revealed fundamental properties of Italian seismicity and has been used to determine earthquake rates. Paleoseismological studies conducted over the past 20 years have shown that the length of this record - 5 to 8 centuries, depending on areas - is just a fraction of the typical recurrence interval of Italian faults - consistently larger than a millennium. Hence, so far the earthquake potential may have been significantly over- or under-estimated. Based on a clear perception of these circumstances, over the past two decades large networks and datasets describing independent aspects of the seismic cycle have been developed. INGV, OGS, some universities and local administrations have built networks that globally include nearly 500 permanent GPS/GNSS sites, routinely used to compute accurate horizontal velocity gradients reflecting the accumulation of tectonic strain. INGV developed the Italian present-day stress map, which includes over 700 datapoints based on geophysical in-situ measurements and fault plane solutions, and the Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS), a unique compilation featuring nearly 300 three-dimensional seismogenic faults over the entire nation. INGV also updates and maintains the Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani (CPTI) and the instrumental earthquake database ISIDe, whereas OGS operates its own seismic catalogue for northeastern Italy. We present preliminary results on the use of this wealth of homogeneously collected and updated observations of stress and strain as a source of loading/unloading of the faults listed in the DISS database. We use the geodetic strain rate - after converting it to stress rate in conjunction with the geophysical stress data of the Stress Map - to compute the Coulomb Failure Function on all fault planes described by the DISS database. This may be seen as an indicator of the rate at which the regional stress is transferred to each fault; as its sign can be positive or negative, the Coulomb Failure Function rate should ultimately indicate the rate at which every fault for which sufficient geodetic data are available is loading or unloading elastic energy. A better understanding of the relationships among geodetically-documented strains, present-day stress, active faulting and seismicity for the entire country should enable us to outline regions where the current strains explain well the known seismicity and to single out areas where stress is consistently building up but are historically quiescent. In such areas the lack of seismicity may result from a limited earthquake coupling - i.e. current strains are consumed aseismically - or from the incompleteness of the earthquake record. Our results may ultimately contribute to the assessment of time-dependent seismic hazard in Italy, thus complementing the time-independent approach used for conventional seismic hazard maps.

Lessons from the conviction of the L'Aquila seven: The standard probabilistic earthquake hazard and risk assessment is ineffective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wyss, Max

2013-04-01

An earthquake of M6.3 killed 309 people in L'Aquila, Italy, on 6 April 2011. Subsequently, a judge in L'Aquila convicted seven who had participated in an emergency meeting on March 30, assessing the probability of a major event to follow the ongoing earthquake swarm. The sentence was six years in prison, a combine fine of 2 million Euros, loss of job, loss of retirement rent, and lawyer's costs. The judge followed the prosecution's accusation that the review by the Commission of Great Risks had conveyed a false sense of security to the population, which consequently did not take their usual precautionary measures before the deadly earthquake. He did not consider the facts that (1) one of the convicted was not a member of the commission and had merrily obeyed orders to bring the latest seismological facts to the discussion, (2) another was an engineer who was not required to have any expertise regarding the probability of earthquakes, (3) and two others were seismologists not invited to speak to the public at a TV interview and a press conference. This exaggerated judgment was the consequence of an uproar in the population, who felt misinformed and even mislead. Faced with a population worried by an earthquake swarm, the head of the Italian Civil Defense is on record ordering that the population be calmed, and the vice head executed this order in a TV interview one hour before the meeting of the Commission by stating "the scientific community continues to tell me that the situation is favorable and that there is a discharge of energy." The first lesson to be learned is that communications to the public about earthquake hazard and risk must not be left in the hands of someone who has gross misunderstandings about seismology. They must be carefully prepared by experts. The more significant lesson is that the approach to calm the population and the standard probabilistic hazard and risk assessment, as practiced by GSHAP, are misleading. The later has been criticized as being incorrect for scientific reasons and here I argue that it is also ineffective for psychological reasons. Instead of calming the people or by underestimating the hazard in strongly active areas by the GSHAP approach, they should be told quantitatively the consequences of the reasonably worst case and be motivated to prepare for it, whether or not it may hit the present or the next generation. In a worst case scenario for L'Aquila, the number of expected fatalities and injured should have been calculated for an event in the range of M6.5 to M7, as I did for a civil defense exercise in Umbria, Italy. With the prospect that approximately 500 people may die in an earthquake in the immediate or distant future, some residents might have built themselves an earthquake closet (similar to a simple tornado shelter) in a corner of their apartment, into which they might have dashed to safety at the onset of the P-wave before the destructive S-wave arrived. I conclude that in earthquake prone areas quantitative loss estimates due to a reasonable worst case earthquake should replace probabilistic hazard and risk estimates. This is a service, which experts owe the community. Insurance companies and academics may still find use for probabilistic estimates of losses, especially in areas of low seismic hazard, where the worst case scenario approach is less appropriate.

LiDAR data and SAR imagery acquired by an unmanned helicopter for rapid landslide investigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasai, M.; Tanaka, Y.; Yamazaki, T.

2012-12-01

When earthquakes or heavy rainfall hits a landslide prone area, initial actions require estimation of the size of damage to people and infrastructure. This includes identifying the number and size of newly collapsed or expanded landslides, and appraising subsequent risks from remobilization of landslides and debris materials. In inapproachable areas, the UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) is likely to be of greatest use. In addition, repeat monitoring of sites after the event is a way of utilizing UAVs, particularly in terms of cost and convenience. In this study, LiDAR (SkEyesBox MP-1) data and SAR (Nano SAR) imagery, acquired over 0.5 km2 landslide prone area, are presented to assess the practicability of using unmanned helicopters (in this case a 10 year old YAMAHA RMAX G1) in these situations. LiDAR data was taken in July 2012, when tree foliage covered the ground surface. However, imagery was of sufficient quality to identify and measure landslide features. Nevertheless, LiDAR data obtained by a manned helicopter in the same area in August 2008 was more detailed, reflecting the function of the LiDAR scanner. On the other hand, 2 m resolution Nano SAR imagery produced reasonable results to elucidate hillslope condition. A quick method for data processing without loss of image quality was also investigated. In conclusion, the LiDAR scanner and UAV employed here could be used to plan immediate remedial activity of the area, before LiDAR measurement with a manned helicopter can be organized. SAR imagery from UAV is also available for this initial activity, and can be further applied to long term monitoring.

Cyclic performance of concrete-filled steel batten built-up columns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Razzaghi, M. S.; Khalkhaliha, M.; Aziminejad, A.

2016-03-01

Steel built-up batten columns are common types of columns in Iran and some other parts of the world. They are economic and have acceptable performance due to gravity loads. Although several researches have been conducted on the behavior of the batten columns under axial loads, there are few available articles about their seismic performance. Experience of the past earthquakes, particularly the 2003 Bam earthquake in Iran, revealed that these structural members are seismically vulnerable. Thus, investigation on seismic performance of steel batten columns due to seismic loads and providing a method for retrofitting them are important task in seismic-prone areas. This study aims to investigate the behavior of concrete-filled batten columns due to combined axial and lateral loads. To this end, nonlinear static analyses were performed using ANSYS software. Herein, the behaviors of the steel batten columns with and without concrete core were compared. The results of this study showed that concrete-filled steel batten columns, particularly those filled with high-strength concrete, may cause significant increases in energy absorption and capacity of the columns. Furthermore, concrete core may improve post-buckling behavior of steel batten columns.

Disasters and public health

PubMed Central

Lechat, M. F.

1979-01-01

Studies on the health effects of disasters have shown that epidemiological indices can be of value in planning preventive and relief measures and in evaluating their effectiveness. Mortality rates naturally vary considerably, but in earthquakes, for example, the number of deaths per 100 houses destroyed can give an indication of the adequacy of building techniques. Age-specific mortality rates can help to identify particularly vulnerable groups and perhaps indicate what form of education would be valuable. Except in earthquakes, the number of casualties after a disaster is usually low in relation to the number of deaths, and study of the distribution and types of lesions would help in planning the amounts and types of relief supplies and personnel required. Disasters also affect the general level of morbidity in a district because of either interruption of normal health care services or of spraying or other disease control measures. Mental health and nutrition following disasters are particular problems that require further investigation. Study of all these features of disasters has been handicapped by a lack of data, particularly concerning the health situation immediately after the impact. The provision of surveillance teams in disaster-prone areas would appear to be a field in which international cooperation could yield immense benefits. PMID:311707

Historic and Instrumental Records of Repeating Seismicity in the Gyeongju Area, Southeastern Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

HAN, M.; Kim, K. H.; Kang, S. Y.; Son, M.; Park, J. H.; LI, Z.

2015-12-01

Gyeongju area located in southeastern Korea has experienced repeated seismicity. Historic records during the last 2000 years in the area indicate the earthquake with magnitude 6.7 caused damages of human life and property in 779. During the period of modern instrumental seismic records, the area also experienced numerous small- and moderate-magnitude earthquakes. For example, an earthquake with magnitude 4.3 occurring in 1997 provided a chance for nationwide evaluations of earthquake safety and the renewal of earthquake monitoring system in Korea. The area is still experiencing small earthquakes including magnitude 3.5 in September 2014. We applied waveform correlation detector to continuously recorded seismic data from July 2014 to December 2014 to identify any repeating earthquakes. Detected waveforms are carefully inspected and more than 230 potential events are identified. Eighty three earthquakes among them have been selected for precise determination of earthquake hypocenters. Focal mechanism solutions for representative events were also determined. We further compared the results with those obtained using earthquakes prior to 2013. It has been confirmed the earthquakes in the area are clustered in space. Similar waveforms, earthquake locations, and focal mechanism solutions identified in the study indicates an active faults in the area. Since the area hosts many critical infra-structures, micro-seismicity in the area requires extensive study to address earthquake hazard issues.

Characterizing the Potential for Injection-Induced Fault Reactivation Through Subsurface Structural Mapping and Stress Field Analysis, Wellington Field, Sumner County, Kansas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwab, Drew R.; Bidgoli, Tandis S.; Taylor, Michael H.

2017-12-01

Kansas, like other parts of the central U.S., has experienced a recent increase in seismicity. Correlation of these events with brine disposal operations suggests pore fluid pressure increases are reactivating preexisting faults, but rigorous evaluation at injection sites is lacking. Here we determine the suitability of CO2 injection into the Cambrian-Ordovician Arbuckle Group for long-term storage and into a Mississippian reservoir for enhanced oil recovery in Wellington Field, Sumner County, Kansas. To determine the potential for injection-induced earthquakes, we map subsurface faults and estimate in situ stresses, perform slip and dilation tendency analyses to identify well-oriented faults relative to the estimated stress field, and determine the pressure changes required to induce slip at reservoir and basement depths. Three-dimensional seismic reflection data reveal 12 near-vertical faults, mostly striking NNE, consistent with nodal planes from moment tensor solutions from recent earthquakes in the region. Most of the faults cut both reservoirs and several clearly penetrate the Precambrian basement. Drilling-induced fractures (N = 40) identified from image logs and inversion of earthquake moment tensor solutions (N = 65) indicate that the maximum horizontal stress is approximately EW. Slip tendency analysis indicates that faults striking <020° are stable under current reservoir conditions, whereas faults striking 020°-049° may be prone to reactivation with increasing pore fluid pressure. Although the proposed injection volume (40,000 t) is unlikely to reactive faults at reservoir depths, high-rate injection operations could reach pressures beyond the critical threshold for slip within the basement, as demonstrated by the large number of injection-induced earthquakes west of the study area.

A new approach to geographic partitioning of probabilistic seismic hazard using seismic source distance with earthquake extreme and perceptibility statistics: an application to the southern Balkan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayliss, T. J.

2016-02-01

The southeastern European cities of Sofia and Thessaloniki are explored as example site-specific scenarios by geographically zoning their individual localized seismic sources based on the highest probabilities of magnitude exceedance. This is with the aim of determining the major components contributing to each city's seismic hazard. Discrete contributions from the selected input earthquake catalogue are investigated to determine those areas that dominate each city's prevailing seismic hazard with respect to magnitude and source-to-site distance. This work is based on an earthquake catalogue developed and described in a previously published paper by the author and components of a magnitude probability density function. Binned magnitude and distance classes are defined using a joint magnitude-distance distribution. The prevailing seismicity to each city-as defined by a child data set extracted from the parent earthquake catalogue for each city considered-is divided into distinct constrained data bins of small discrete magnitude and source-to-site distance intervals. These are then used to describe seismic hazard in terms of uni-variate modal values; that is, M* and D* which are the modal magnitude and modal source-to-site distance in each city's local historical seismicity. This work highlights that Sofia's dominating seismic hazard-that is, the modal magnitudes possessing the highest probabilities of occurrence-is located in zones confined to two regions at 60-80 km and 170-180 km from this city, for magnitude intervals of 5.75-6.00 Mw and 6.00-6.25 Mw respectively. Similarly, Thessaloniki appears prone to highest levels of hazard over a wider epicentral distance interval, from 80 to 200 km in the moment magnitude range 6.00-6.25 Mw.

Katrina Kids! Helping Kids Exposed to Population-Wide Trauma

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bender, William N.; Sims, Rebecca

2007-01-01

Although schools have implemented school safety plans as a result of the violence witnessed on rare occasions in schools today, schools are less likely to be prepared for emergencies such as Katrina or 9/11; this is true even for schools in locations prone to hurricanes, tornadoes, or earthquakes. Whereas disaster plans typically involve school…

"Ayiti Cheri": Cultural Orientation of Early Adolescents in Rural Haiti

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ferguson, Gail M.; Desir, Charlene; Bornstein, Marc H.

2014-01-01

Adolescents are an emerging population in Haiti, particularly after the deadly 2010 earthquake. The steady penetration of U.S. culture into this poor, disaster-prone country begs the question, Do today's adolescents possess a similar fondness for their home country, culture, and traditional family values as did Haitians of old? Or are they more…

Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Assess Landslide Characteristics and Devlelop Susceptibility and Exposure Maps in Malawi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klug, M.; Cissell, J.; Grossman, M.

2017-12-01

Malawi has become increasingly prone to landslides in the past few decades. This can be attributed to the terrain, types of soil and vegetation, increased human interference, and heavy flooding after long periods of drought. In addition to the floods and droughts, landslides cause extra stress to farmlands, thus exacerbating the current food security crisis in the country. It can be difficult to pinpoint just how many people are affected by landslides in Malawi because landslides often occur in rural areas or are grouped with other disasters, such as floods or earthquakes. This project created a Landslide Susceptibility Map to assess landslide-prone areas in Malawi using variables such as slope, distance to roads, distance to streams, soil type, and precipitation. These variables were derived using imagery from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Version 3 (SRTM-v3), Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellites. Furthermore, this project created a Landslide Exposure Map to estimate how much of the local population lives in susceptible areas by intersecting population data with the Landslide Susceptibility Map. Additionally, an assessment of GPM and TRMM precipitation measurements was generated to better understand the reliability of both measurements for landslide monitoring. Finally, this project updated NASA SERVIR's Global Landslide Catalog (GLC) for Malawi by using WorldView data from Google Earth and Landsat 8 OLI. These end products were used by NASA SERVIR and the Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD) for aiding in disaster management throughout Malawi.

Improved detection and relocation of micro-earthquakes applied to the Sea of Marmara

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tary, J. B.; Evangelia, B.; Géli, L.; Lomax, A.

2016-12-01

The Sea of Marmara is located at the western end of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF). This part of the NAF is considered as a seismic gap, being between the Izmit and Duzce earthquakes to the East and the Ganos earthquake to the West. Improved detection and location of seismicity in the Sea of Marmara is important for defining the seismic hazard in this area.On July 25, 2011, a Mw 5 earthquake occurred below the Western High in the western part of the Sea of Marmara. This earthquake as well as its aftershock sequence were recorded by a network of 10 ocean bottom seismometers (Ifremer) as well as seafloor observatories (KOERI). The OBSs were deployed from mid-April, 2011, to the end of July, 2011.The aftershock sequence is characterized by deep seismicity ( 10-15 km) around the main shock and shallow seismicity. Some of the shallow seismicity could be located at a similar depth as gas prone sediment layers below the Western High. The exact causes of these shallow aftershocks are still unclear. To better define this aftershock sequence, we use the match filter technique with a selection of aftershocks as templates to dig out child events from the continuous data streams. The templates are cross-correlated with the continuous data for stations with absolute time picks. The cross-correlation coefficients are then summed over all stations and components, and we then compute its median absolute deviation (MAD). Signals are detected when the summed cross-correlation time series exceeds a given number of times the MAD. Using a conservative detection threshold, we obtain a 10-fold increase in the number of events. The newly detected events are then relocated using the double-difference technique. With these newly detected events, we investigate the nucleation phase of the main shock and the aftershock sequence, as well as the possible triggering of the shallow aftershocks by the deeper seismicity.

Large-Scale Earthquake Countermeasures Act and the Earthquake Prediction Council in Japan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rikitake, T.

1979-08-07

The Large-Scale Earthquake Countermeasures Act was enacted in Japan in December 1978. This act aims at mitigating earthquake hazards by designating an area to be an area under intensified measures against earthquake disaster, such designation being based on long-term earthquake prediction information, and by issuing an earthquake warnings statement based on imminent prediction information, when possible. In an emergency case as defined by the law, the prime minister will be empowered to take various actions which cannot be taken at ordinary times. For instance, he may ask the Self-Defense Force to come into the earthquake-threatened area before the earthquake occurrence.more » A Prediction Council has been formed in order to evaluate premonitory effects that might be observed over the Tokai area, which was designated an area under intensified measures against earthquake disaster some time in June 1979. An extremely dense observation network has been constructed over the area.« less

Predicted Attenuation Relation and Observed Ground Motion of Gorkha Nepal Earthquake of 25 April 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, R. P.; Ahmad, R.

2015-12-01

A comparison of recent observed ground motion parameters of recent Gorkha Nepal earthquake of 25 April 2015 (Mw 7.8) with the predicted ground motion parameters using exitsing attenuation relation of the Himalayan region will be presented. The recent earthquake took about 8000 lives and destroyed thousands of poor quality of buildings and the earthquake was felt by millions of people living in Nepal, China, India, Bangladesh, and Bhutan. The knowledge of ground parameters are very important in developing seismic code of seismic prone regions like Himalaya for better design of buildings. The ground parameters recorded in recent earthquake event and aftershocks are compared with attenuation relations for the Himalayan region, the predicted ground motion parameters show good correlation with the observed ground parameters. The results will be of great use to Civil engineers in updating existing building codes in the Himlayan and surrounding regions and also for the evaluation of seismic hazards. The results clearly show that the attenuation relation developed for the Himalayan region should be only used, other attenuation relations based on other regions fail to provide good estimate of observed ground motion parameters.

Influence of Tidal Forces on the Triggering of Seismic Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varga, Péter; Grafarend, Erik

2018-05-01

Tidal stresses are generated in any three-dimensional body influenced by an external inhomogeneous gravity field of rotating planets or moons. In this paper, as a special case, stresses caused within the solid Earth by the body tides are discussed from viewpoint of their influence on seismic activity. The earthquake triggering effects of the Moon and Sun are usually investigated by statistical comparison of tidal variations and temporal distribution of earthquake activity, or with the use of mathematical or experimental modelling of physical processes in earthquake prone structures. In this study, the magnitude of the lunisolar stress tensor in terms of its components along the latitude of the spherical surface of the Earth as well as inside the Earth (up to the core-mantle boundary) were calculated for the PREM (Dziewonski and Anderson in Phys Earth Planet Inter 25(4):297-356, 1981). Results of calculations prove that stress increases as a function of depth reaching a value around some kPa at the depth of 900-1500 km, well below the zone of deep earthquakes. At the depth of the overwhelming part of seismic energy accumulation (around 50 km) the stresses of lunisolar origin are only (0.0-1.0)·103 Pa. Despite the fact that these values are much smaller than the earthquake stress drops (1-30 MPa) (Kanamori in Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 22:207-237, 1994) this does not exclude the possibility of an impact of tidal forces on outbreak of seismic events. Since the tidal potential and its derivatives are coordinate dependent and the zonal, tesseral and sectorial tides have different distributions from the surface down to the CMB, the lunisolar stress cannot influence the break-out of every seismological event in the same degree. The influencing lunisolar effect of the solid earth tides on earthquake occurrences is connected first of all with stress components acting parallel to the surface of the Earth. The influence of load tides is limited to the loaded area and its immediate vicinity.

Influence of Tidal Forces on the Triggering of Seismic Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varga, Péter; Grafarend, Erik

2017-05-01

Tidal stresses are generated in any three-dimensional body influenced by an external inhomogeneous gravity field of rotating planets or moons. In this paper, as a special case, stresses caused within the solid Earth by the body tides are discussed from viewpoint of their influence on seismic activity. The earthquake triggering effects of the Moon and Sun are usually investigated by statistical comparison of tidal variations and temporal distribution of earthquake activity, or with the use of mathematical or experimental modelling of physical processes in earthquake prone structures. In this study, the magnitude of the lunisolar stress tensor in terms of its components along the latitude of the spherical surface of the Earth as well as inside the Earth (up to the core-mantle boundary) were calculated for the PREM (Dziewonski and Anderson in Phys Earth Planet Inter 25(4):297-356, 1981). Results of calculations prove that stress increases as a function of depth reaching a value around some kPa at the depth of 900-1500 km, well below the zone of deep earthquakes. At the depth of the overwhelming part of seismic energy accumulation (around 50 km) the stresses of lunisolar origin are only (0.0-1.0)·103 Pa. Despite the fact that these values are much smaller than the earthquake stress drops (1-30 MPa) (Kanamori in Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 22:207-237, 1994) this does not exclude the possibility of an impact of tidal forces on outbreak of seismic events. Since the tidal potential and its derivatives are coordinate dependent and the zonal, tesseral and sectorial tides have different distributions from the surface down to the CMB, the lunisolar stress cannot influence the break-out of every seismological event in the same degree. The influencing lunisolar effect of the solid earth tides on earthquake occurrences is connected first of all with stress components acting parallel to the surface of the Earth. The influence of load tides is limited to the loaded area and its immediate vicinity.

Earthquake induced landslide hazard field observatory in the Avcilar peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bigarre, Pascal; Coccia, Stella; Theoleyre, Fiona; Ergintav, Semih; Özel, Oguz; Yalçinkaya, Esref; Lenti, Luca; Martino, Salvatore; Gamba, Paolo; Zucca, Francesco; Moro, Marco

2015-04-01

Earthquake-triggered landslides have an increasing disastrous impact in seismic regions due to the fast growing urbanization and infrastructures. Just considering disasters from the last fifteen years, among which the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, these events generated tens of thousands of coseismic landslides. Those resulted in amazing death toll and considerable damages, affecting the regional landscape including its hydrological main features. Despite a strong impetus in research during past decades, knowledge on those geohazards is still fragmentary, while databases of high quality observational data are lacking. These phenomena call for further collaborative researches aiming eventually to enhance preparedness and crisis management. The MARSITE project gathers research groups in a comprehensive monitoring activity developed in the Sea of Marmara Region, one of the most densely populated parts of Europe and rated at high seismic risk level since the 1999 Izmit and Duzce devastating earthquakes. Besides the seismic threat, landslides in Turkey and in this region constitute an important source of loss. The 6th Work Package of MARSITE project gathers 9 research groups to study earthquake-induced landslides focusing on two sub-regional areas of high interest among which the Cekmece-Avcilar peninsula, located westwards of Istanbul, as a highly urbanized concentrated landslide prone area, showing high susceptibility to both rainfalls while affected by very significant seismic site effects. A multidisciplinary research program based on pre-existing studies has been designed with objectives and tasks linked to constrain and tackle progressively some challenging issues related to data integration, modeling, monitoring and mapping technologies. Since the start of the project, progress has been marked on several important points as follows. The photogeological interpretation and analysis of ENVISAT-ERS DInSAR temporal series has been undertaken, providing global but accurate Identification and characterization of gravitational phenomena covering the aera. Evaluation of the resolution and identification of landslide hazard-related features using space multispectral/hyperspectral image data has been realized. Profit has been gained from a vast drilling and geological - geotechnical survey program undertaken by the Istanbul Metropolitan Area, to get important data to complete the geological model of the landslide as well as one deep borehole to set up permanent instrumentation on a quite large slow landslide, fully encircled by a dense building environment. The selected landslide was instrumented in 2014 with a real-time observational system including GPS, rainfall, piezometer and seismic monitoring. Objective of this permanent monitoring system is three folds: first to detect and quantify interaction between seismic motion, rainfall and mass movement, building a database opened to the scientific community in the future, second to help to calibrate dynamic numerical geomechanical simulations intending to study the sensitivity to seismic loading, and last but not least. Last but not least important geophysical field work has been conducted to assess seismic site effects already noticed during the 1999 earthquake .Data, metadata and main results are from now progressively compiled and formatted for appropriate integration in the cloud monitoring infrastructure for data sharing.

Tourism hazard potentials in Mount Merapi: how to deal with the risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muthiah, J.; Muntasib, E. K. S. H.; Meilani, R.

2018-05-01

Mount Merapi as one of the most popular natural tourism destination in Indonesia, indicated as disaster prone area. Hazard management is required to ensure visitors safety. Hazard identification and mapping are prerequisite in developing proper hazard management recommendation. This study aimed to map hazard potentials’ geographical positions obtained with geographical positioning system and to identify the hazard management being implemented. Data collection was carried out in Mei – June 2017 through observation and interview. Hiking trail and Lava tour area was selected as the study site, since the sites are the main areas for tourism activities in Mount Merapi. The type of hazards found in the area included lava, tephra, eruption cloud, ash, earthquake, land slide, extreme weather, slope and loose rock. Early warning system had been developed in this area, however the mechanism to regulate tourism activities still had to be improved. Local tourism entrepreneurs should be involved in the network of early warning system stakeholders to ensure tourist safety, and their capacity should be improved in order to be able to perform the measures needed for handling accident and disaster occurrences. Interpretive media explaining hazard potentials may be used to improve visitors’ awareness and ability to cope with the risk.

Earth Observations by the Expedition 19 crew

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-04-11

ISS019-E-006499 (11 April 2009) --- Ankara, Turkey is featured in this image photographed by an Expedition 19 crewmember on the International Space Station. The central portion of the capital city of Turkey, Ankara, is featured in this view. Ankara is located in central Turkey ? the climate here is continental and relatively dry, leading to cold winters and hot summers. The region is prone to major earthquakes, as Turkey experiences tectonic forces from both the African plate to the west and the Arabian plate to the east. Despite the earthquake hazard, the city traces its roots back into antiquity, with a Hittite settlement here prior to 1200 BC. A citadel built and occupied in turn by the Galatians, Romans, Byzantines, and Seljuks overlooks the central portion of the city, and today serves as both a historical and recreational site. Perhaps an even more imposing structure - the mausoleum of the founder of the modern-day Republic of Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk is visible upon an adjacent hill to the southwest. Hillslopes around the city (left and right) are fairly green due to spring seasonal rainfall. One of the most striking aspects of the urban area is the almost uniform use of red brick roofing tiles that contrast with lighter colored road networks ? this is particularly evident in the northern (lower left) and southern (upper right) portions of the city. Numerous park areas are visible as green patches interspersed within the red-tile roofed urban region. A region of cultivated fields in the western portion of the city (center) is a recreational farming area known as the Ataturk Forest Farm and Zoo ? an interesting example of intentional preservation of a former land use within an urban area.

The Collapse of Ancient Societies by Great Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nur, A. M.

2001-12-01

Although earthquakes have often been associated with inexplicable past societal disasters their impact has thought to be only secondary for two reasons: Inconclusive archaeological interpretation of excavated destruction, and misconceptions about patterns of seismicity. However, new and revised archaeological evidence and a better understanding of the irregularities of the time-space patterns of large earthquakes together suggest that earthquakes (and associated tsunamis) have probably been responsible for some of the great and enigmatic catastrophes in ancient times. The most relevant aspect of seismicity is the episodic time-space clustering of earthquakes such as during the eastern Mediterranean seismic crisis in the second half of the 4th century AD and the seismicity of the north Anatolian fault during our century. During these earthquake clusters, plate boundary rupture by a series of large earthquakes that occur over a period of only 50 to 100 years or so, followed by hundreds or even thousands of years of relative inactivity. The extent of the destruction by such rare but powerful earthquake clusters must have been far greater than similar modern events due to poorer construction and the lack of any earthquake preparedness in ancient times. The destruction by very big earthquakes also made ancient societies so vulnerable because so much of the wealth and power was concentrated and protected by so few. Thus the breaching by an earthquake of the elite's fortified cities must have often led to attacks by (1) external enemies during ongoing wars (e.g., Joshua and Jericho, Arab attack on Herod's Jerusalem in 31 BCE); (2) neighbors during ongoing conflicts (e.g., Mycenea's fall in @1200 BCE, Saul's battle at Michmash @1020 BCE); and (3) uprisings of poor and often enslaved indigenous populations (e.g., Sparta and the Helots @465 BCE, Hattusas @1200 BCE?, Teotihuacan @ 700 AD). When the devastation was by a local earthquake, during a modest conflict, damage was probably limited and may have required a few tens of years to rebuild. But when severe ground shaking is widespread, and when it happened during a major military conflict the devastation may have been so great that it took hundreds of years for a society to recover- going through a dark ages period during which many of the technical skills (e.g., writing) are abandoned (e.g., the cessation of linear B), construction and repairs of monumental buildings ceased, and looting of building materials by surviving squatters was common. In contrast we can imagine the pastoral countryside, especially away from the tsunami prone coastal areas, to have been much less affected (and perhaps even flourished a little as their tax burden to the ruling elite is reduced). During a regional seismic crisis an entire region must have been subjected to a series of devastations by earthquakes over a short period of time. The catastrophic collapse of the main eastern Mediterranean civilizations at the end of the Bronze Age may be a case in point, with the `Sea People' being mostly squatters and refugees.

GPS measurements and finite element modeling of the earthquake cycle along the Middle America subduction zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Correa Mora, Francisco

We model surface deformation recorded by GPS stations along the Pacific coasts of Mexico and Central America to estimate the magnitude of and variations in frictional locking (coupling) along the subduction interface, toward a better understanding of seismic hazard in these earthquake-prone regions. The first chapter describes my primary analysis technique, namely 3-dimensional finite element modeling to simulate subduction and bounded-variable inversions that optimize the fit to the GPS velocity field. This chapter focuses on and describes interseismic coupling of the Oaxaca segment of the Mexican subduction zone and introduces an analysis of transient slip events that occur in this region. Our results indicate that coupling is strong within the rupture zone of the 1978 Ms=7.8 Oaxaca earthquake, making this region a potential source of a future large earthquake. However, we also find evidence for significant variations in coupling on the subduction interface over distances of only tens of kilometers, decreasing toward the outer edges of the 1978 rupture zone. In the second chapter, we study in more detail some of the slow slip events that have been recorded over a broad area of southern Mexico, with emphasis on their space-time behavior. Our modeling indicates that transient deformation beneath southern Mexico is focused in two distinct slip patches mostly located downdip from seismogenic areas beneath Guerrero and Oaxaca. Contrary to conclusions reached in one previous study, we find no evidence for a spatial or temporal correlation between transient slip that occurs in these two widely separated source regions. Finally, chapter three extends the modeling techniques to new GPS data in Central America, where subduction coupling is weak or zero and the upper plate deformation is much more complex than in Mexico. Cocos-Caribbean plate convergence beneath El Salvador and Nicaragua is accompanied by subduction and trench-parallel motion of the forearc. Our GPS velocity field is best fit by a model with strongly locked faults in the volcanic arc and a weakly coupled subduction interface. In this region, seismic hazards associated with subduction are therefore low, but are high for crustal faults, in agreement with records of historic seismicity.

Analysis of frequency shifting in seismic signals using Gabor-Wigner transform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Roshan; Sumathi, P.; Kumar, Ashok

2015-12-01

A hybrid time-frequency method known as Gabor-Wigner transform (GWT) is introduced in this paper for examining the time-frequency patterns of earthquake damaged buildings. GWT is developed by combining the Gabor transform (GT) and Wigner-Ville distribution (WVD). GT and WVD have been used separately on synthetic and recorded earthquake data to identify frequency shifting due to earthquake damages, but GT is prone to windowing effect and WVD involves ambiguity function. Hence to obtain better clarity and to remove the cross terms (frequency interference), GT and WVD are judiciously combined and the resultant GWT used to identify frequency shifting. Synthetic seismic response of an instrumented building and real-time earthquake data recorded on the building were investigated using GWT. It is found that GWT offers good accuracy for even slow variations in frequency, good time-frequency resolution, and localized response. Presented results confirm the efficacy of GWT when compared with GT and WVD used separately. Simulation results were quantified by the Renyi entropy measures and GWT shown to be an adequate technique in identifying localized response for structural damage detection.

Satellite Relay Telemetry of Seismic Data in Earthquake Prediction and Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackson, W. H.; Eaton, J. P.

1971-01-01

The Satellite Telemetry Earthquake Monitoring Program was started to evaluate the applicability of satellite relay telemetry in the collection of seismic data from a large number of dense seismograph clusters laid out along the major fault systems of western North America. Prototype clusters utilizing phone-line telemetry were then being installed by the National Center for Earthquake Research in 3 regions along the San Andreas fault in central California; and the experience of installing and operating the clusters and in reducing and analyzing the seismic data from them was to provide the raw materials for evaluation in the satellite relay telemetry project. The principal advantages of the satellite relay system over commercial telephone or microwave systems were: (1) it could be made less prone to massive failure during a major earthquake; (2) it could be extended readily into undeveloped regions; and (3) it could provide flexible, uniform communications over large sections of major global tectonic zones. Fundamental characteristics of a communications system to cope with the large volume of raw data collected by a short-period seismograph network are discussed.

Science should warn people of looming disaster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir

2014-05-01

Contemporary Science is responsible for not coping with challenging changes of Exposures and their Vulnerability inflicted by growing population, its concentration, etc., which result in a steady increase of Losses from Natural Hazards. Scientists owe to Society for lack of special knowledge, education, and communication. In fact, it appears that a few seismic hazard assessment programs and/or methodologies were tested appropriately against real observations before being endorsed for estimation of earthquake related risks. The fatal evidence and aftermath of the past decades prove that many of the existing internationally accepted methodologies are grossly misleading and are evidently unacceptable for any kind of responsible risk evaluation and knowledgeable disaster prevention. In contrast, the confirmed reliability of pattern recognition aimed at earthquake prone areas and times of increased probability, along with realistic earthquake scaling and scenario modeling, allow us to conclude that Contemporary Science can do a better job in disclosing Natural Hazards, assessing Risks, and delivering this state-of-the-art knowledge of looming disaster in advance catastrophic events. In a lieu of seismic observations long enough for a reliable probabilistic assessment or a comprehensive physical theory of earthquake recurrence, pattern recognition applied to available geophysical and/or geological data sets remains a broad avenue to follow in seismic hazard forecast/prediction. Moreover, better understanding seismic process in terms of non-linear dynamics of a hierarchical system of blocks-and-faults and deterministic chaos, progress to new approaches in assessing time-dependent seismic hazard based on multiscale analysis of seismic activity and reproducible intermediate-term earthquake prediction technique. The algorithms, which make use of multidisciplinary data available and account for fractal nature of earthquake distributions in space and time, have confirmed their reliability by durable statistical testing in the on-going regular real-time application lasted for more than 20 years. Geoscientists must initiate shifting the minds of community from pessimistic disbelieve in forecast/prediction products to optimistic challenging views on Hazard Predictability in space and time, so that not to repeat missed opportunities for disaster preparedness like it happen in advance the 2009 L'Aquila, M6.3 earthquake in Italy and the 2011, M9.0 mega-thrust off the Pacific coast of Tōhoku region in Japan.

Hydro-mechanical mechanism and thresholds of rainfall-induced unsaturated landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Zongji; Lei, Xiaoqin; Huang, Dong; Qiao, Jianping

2017-04-01

The devastating Ms 8 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 created the greatest number of co-seismic mountain hazards ever recorded in China. However, the dynamics of rainfall induced mass remobilization and transport deposits after giant earthquake are not fully understood. Moreover, rainfall intensity and duration (I-D) methods are the predominant early warning indicators of rainfall-induced landslides in post-earthquake region, which are a convenient and straight-forward way to predict the hazards. However, the rainfall-based criteria and thresholds are generally empirical and based on statistical analysis,consequently, they ignore the failure mechanisms of the landslides. This study examines the mechanism and hydro-mechanical behavior and thresholds of these unsaturated deposits under the influence of rainfall. To accomplish this, in situ experiments were performed in an instrumented landslide deposit, The field experimental tests were conducted on a natural co-seismic fractured slope to 1) simulate rainfall-induced shallow failures in the depression channels of a debris flow catchment in an earthquake-affected region, 2)explore the mechanisms and transient processes associated with hydro-mechanical parameter variations in response to the infiltration of rainfall, and 3) identify the hydrologic parameter thresholds and critical criteria of gravitational erosion in areas prone to mass remobilization as a source of debris flows. These experiments provided instrumental evidence and directly proved that post-earthquake rainfall-induced mass remobilization occurred under unsaturated conditions in response to transient rainfall infiltration, and revealed the presence of transient processes and the dominance of preferential flow paths during rainfall infiltration. A hydro-mechanical method was adopted for the transient hydrologic process modelling and unsaturated slope stability analysis. and the slope failures during the experimental test were reproduced by the model, indicating that the decrease in matrix suction and increase in moisture content in response to rainfall infiltration contributed greatly to post-earthquake shallow mass movement. Thus, a threshold model for the initiation of mass remobilization is proposed based on correlations between slope stability and volumetric water content and matrix suction As a complement to rainfall-based early warning strategies, the water content and suction threshold models based on the water infiltration induced slope failure mechanism. the proposed method are expected to improve the accuracy of prediction and early warnings of post-earthquake mountain hazards

44 CFR 60.25 - Designation, duties, and responsibilities of State Coordinating Agencies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

..., Mudslide (i.e., Mudflow)-Prone and Flood-Related Erosion-Prone Areas § 60.25 Designation, duties, and... and coastal flood-prone areas, whenever possible, and provide all relevant technical information to...

44 CFR 60.25 - Designation, duties, and responsibilities of State Coordinating Agencies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

..., Mudslide (i.e., Mudflow)-Prone and Flood-Related Erosion-Prone Areas § 60.25 Designation, duties, and... and coastal flood-prone areas, whenever possible, and provide all relevant technical information to...

44 CFR 60.25 - Designation, duties, and responsibilities of State Coordinating Agencies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

..., Mudslide (i.e., Mudflow)-Prone and Flood-Related Erosion-Prone Areas § 60.25 Designation, duties, and... and coastal flood-prone areas, whenever possible, and provide all relevant technical information to...

44 CFR 60.25 - Designation, duties, and responsibilities of State Coordinating Agencies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

..., Mudslide (i.e., Mudflow)-Prone and Flood-Related Erosion-Prone Areas § 60.25 Designation, duties, and... and coastal flood-prone areas, whenever possible, and provide all relevant technical information to...

Variations in Community Exposure and Sensitivity to Tsunami Hazards on the Open-Ocean and Strait of Juan de Fuca Coasts of Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan; Soulard, Christopher

2008-01-01

Evidence of past events and modeling of potential future events suggest that tsunamis are significant threats to communities on the open-ocean and Strait of Juan de Fuca coasts of Washington. Although potential tsunami-inundation zones from a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake have been delineated, the amount and type of human development in tsunami-prone areas have not been documented. A vulnerability assessment using geographic-information-system tools was conducted to document variations in developed land, human populations, economic assets, and critical facilities relative to CSZ-related tsunami-inundation zones among communities on the open-ocean and Strait of Juan de Fuca coasts of Washington (including Clallam, Jefferson, Grays Harbor, and Pacific Counties). The tsunami-inundation zone in these counties contains 42,972 residents (24 percent of the total study-area population), 24,934 employees (33 percent of the total labor force), and 17,029 daily visitors to coastal Washington State Parks. The tsunami-inundation zone also contains 2,908 businesses that generate $4.6 billion in annual sales volume (31 and 40 percent of study-area totals, respectively) and tax parcels with a combined total value of $4.5 billion (25 percent of the study-area total). Although occupancy values are not known for each site, the tsunami-inundation zone also contains numerous dependent-population facilities (for example, schools and child-day-care centers), public venues (for example, religious organizations), and critical facilities (for example, police stations and public-work facilities). Racial diversity of residents in tsunami-prone areas is low?89 percent of residents are White and 8 percent are American Indian or Alaska Native. Nineteen percent of the residents in the tsunami-inundation zone are over 65 years in age, 30 percent of the residents live on unincorporated county lands, and 35 percent of the households are renter occupied. Employees in the tsunami-inundation zone are largely in businesses related to health care and social assistance, accommodation and food services, and retail trade, reflecting businesses that cater to a growing retiree and tourist population. Community vulnerability, described here by exposure (the amount of assets in tsunami-prone areas) and sensitivity (the relative percentage of assets in tsunami-prone areas) varies among 13 incorporated cities, 7 Indian reservations, and 4 counties. The City of Aberdeen has the highest relative community exposure to tsunamis, whereas the City of Long Beach has the highest relative community sensitivity. Levels of community exposure and sensitivity to tsunamis are found to be related to the amount and percentage, respectively, of a community?s land that is in a tsunami-inundation zone. This report will further the dialogue on societal risk to tsunami hazards in Washington and help risk managers to determine where additional risk-reduction strategies may be needed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Diansari, Angga Vertika, E-mail: anggav.bmkg@gmail.com; Purwana, Ibnu; Subakti, Hendri

The 11 April 2012 earthquakes off-shore Aceh-North Sumatra are unique events for the history of Indonesian earthquake. It is unique because that they have similar magnitude, 8.5 Mw and 8.1 Mw; close to epicenter distance, similar strike-slip focal mechanism, and occuring in outer rise area. The purposes of this research are: (1) comparing area of earthquakes base on models and that of calculation, (2) fitting the shape and the area of earthquake rupture zones, (3) analyzing the relationship between rupture area and magnitude of the earthquakes. Rupture area of the earthquake fault are determined by using 4 different formulas, i.e.more » Utsu and Seki (1954), Wells and Coppersmith (1994), Ellsworth (2003), and Christophersen and Smith (2000). The earthquakes aftershock parameters are taken from PGN (PusatGempabumiNasional or National Earthquake Information Center) of BMKG (Indonesia Agency Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics). The aftershock epicenters are plotted by GMT’s software. After that, ellipse and rectangular models of aftershock spreading are made. The results show that: (1) rupture areas were calculated using magnitude relationship which are larger than the the aftershock distributions model, (2) the best fitting model for that earthquake aftershock distribution is rectangular associated with Utsu and Seki (1954) formula, (3) the larger the magnitude of the earthquake, the larger area of the fault.« less

Hazard perception and the economic impact of internment on residential land values

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Merz, J.F.

1983-04-01

The potential for large scale natural and man-made hazards exists in the form of hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanoes, floods, dams, accidents involving poisonous, explosive or radioactive materials, and severe pollution or waste disposal mishaps. Regions prone to natural hazards and areas located proximally to technological hazards may be subject to economic losses from low probability-high consequence events. Economic costs may be incurred in: evacuation and relocation of inhabitants; personal, industrial, agricultural, and tax revenue losses; decontamination; property damage or loss of value; and temporary or prolonged internment of land. The value of land in an area subjected to a low probability-highmore » consequence event may decrease, reflecting, a fortiori, a reluctance to continue living in the area or to repopulate a region which had required internment. The future value of such land may be described as a function of location, time, interdiction period (if applicable), and variables reflecting the magnitude of the perceived hazard. This paper presents a study of these variables and proposes a model for land value estimation. As an example, the application of the model to the Love Canal area in Niagara Falls, New York is presented.« less

St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Robert A.; Steckel, Phyllis; Schweig, Eugene

2007-01-01

St. Louis has experienced minor earthquake damage at least 12 times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and its proximity to known active earthquake zones, the St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project will produce digital maps that show variability of earthquake hazards in the St. Louis area. The maps will be available free via the internet. They can be customized by the user to show specific areas of interest, such as neighborhoods or transportation routes.

Creating a Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Assessment and Risk Management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

2008-01-01

Earthquakes have claimed approximately 8 million lives over the last 2,000 years (Dunbar, Lockridge and others, 1992) and fatality rates are likely to continue to rise with increased population and urbanizations of global settlements especially in developing countries. More than 75% of earthquake-related human casualties are caused by the collapse of buildings or structures (Coburn and Spence, 2002). It is disheartening to note that large fractions of the world's population still reside in informal, poorly-constructed & non-engineered dwellings which have high susceptibility to collapse during earthquakes. Moreover, with increasing urbanization half of world's population now lives in urban areas (United Nations, 2001), and half of these urban centers are located in earthquake-prone regions (Bilham, 2004). The poor performance of most building stocks during earthquakes remains a primary societal concern. However, despite this dark history and bleaker future trends, there are no comprehensive global building inventories of sufficient quality and coverage to adequately address and characterize future earthquake losses. Such an inventory is vital both for earthquake loss mitigation and for earthquake disaster response purposes. While the latter purpose is the motivation of this work, we hope that the global building inventory database described herein will find widespread use for other mitigation efforts as well. For a real-time earthquake impact alert system, such as U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER), (Wald, Earle and others, 2006), we seek to rapidly evaluate potential casualties associated with earthquake ground shaking for any region of the world. The casualty estimation is based primarily on (1) rapid estimation of the ground shaking hazard, (2) aggregating the population exposure within different building types, and (3) estimating the casualties from the collapse of vulnerable buildings. Thus, the contribution of building stock, its relative vulnerability, and distribution are vital components for determining the extent of casualties during an earthquake. It is evident from large deadly historical earthquakes that the distribution of vulnerable structures and their occupancy level during an earthquake control the severity of human losses. For example, though the number of strong earthquakes in California is comparable to that of Iran, the total earthquake-related casualties in California during the last 100 years are dramatically lower than the casualties from several individual Iranian earthquakes. The relatively low casualties count in California is attributed mainly to the fact that more than 90 percent of the building stock in California is made of wood and is designed to withstand moderate to large earthquakes (Kircher, Seligson and others, 2006). In contrast, the 80 percent adobe and or non-engineered masonry building stock with poor lateral load resisting systems in Iran succumbs even for moderate levels of ground shaking. Consequently, the heavy death toll for the 2003 Bam, Iran earthquake, which claimed 31,828 lives (Ghafory-Ashtiany and Mousavi, 2005), is directly attributable to such poorly resistant construction, and future events will produce comparable losses unless practices change. Similarly, multistory, precast-concrete framed buildings caused heavy casualties in the 1988 Spitak, Armenia earthquake (Bertero, 1989); weaker masonry and reinforced-concrete framed construction designed for gravity loads with soft first stories dominated losses in the Bhuj, India earthquake of 2001 (Madabhushi and Haigh, 2005); and adobe and weak masonry dwellings in Peru controlled the death toll in the Peru earthquake of 2007 (Taucer, J. and others, 2007). Spence (2007) after conducting a brief survey of most lethal earthquakes since 1960 found that building collapses remains a major cause of earthquake mortality and unreinforced masonry buildings are one of the mos

Communicating Earthquake Preparedness: The Influence of Induced Mood, Perceived Risk, and Gain or Loss Frames on Homeowners' Attitudes Toward General Precautionary Measures for Earthquakes.

PubMed

Marti, Michèle; Stauffacher, Michael; Matthes, Jörg; Wiemer, Stefan

2018-04-01

Despite global efforts to reduce seismic risk, actual preparedness levels remain universally low. Although earthquake-resistant building design is the most efficient way to decrease potential losses, its application is not a legal requirement across all earthquake-prone countries and even if, often not strictly enforced. Risk communication encouraging homeowners to take precautionary measures is therefore an important means to enhance a country's earthquake resilience. Our study illustrates that specific interactions of mood, perceived risk, and frame type significantly affect homeowners' attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes. The interdependencies of the variables mood, risk information, and frame type were tested in an experimental 2 × 2 × 2 design (N = 156). Only in combination and not on their own, these variables effectively influence attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes. The control variables gender, "trait anxiety" index, and alteration of perceived risk adjust the effect. Overall, the group with the strongest attitudes toward general precautionary actions for earthquakes are homeowners with induced negative mood who process high-risk information and gain-framed messages. However, the conditions comprising induced negative mood, low-risk information and loss-frame and induced positive mood, low-risk information and gain-framed messages both also significantly influence homeowners' attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes. These results mostly confirm previous findings in the field of health communication. For practitioners, our study emphasizes that carefully compiled communication measures are a powerful means to encourage precautionary attitudes among homeowners, especially for those with an elevated perceived risk. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

An investigation on seismo-ionospheric precursors in various earthquake zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Y.; Liu, J. G.; Chen, M.

2011-12-01

Y. C. Su1, J. Y. Liu1 and M. Q. Chen1 1Institute of Space Science, National Central University, Chung-Li,Taiwan. This paper examines the relationships between the ionosphere and earthquakes occurring in different earthquake zones e.g. Malaysia area, Tibet plateau, mid-ocean ridge, Andes, etc., to reveal the possible seismo-ionospheric precursors for these area. Because the lithology, focal mechanism of earthquakes and electrodynamics in the ionosphere at different area are different, it is probable to have diverse ionospheric reactions before large earthquakes occurring in these areas. In addition to statistical analyses on increase or decrease anomalies of the ionospheric electron density few days before large earthquakes, we focus on the seismo-ionospheric precursors for oceanic and land earthquakes as well as for earthquakes with different focal mechanisms.

Seismic fragility analysis of typical pre-1990 bridges due to near- and far-field ground motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosleh, Araliya; Razzaghi, Mehran S.; Jara, José; Varum, Humberto

2016-03-01

Bridge damages during the past earthquakes caused several physical and economic impacts to transportation systems. Many of the existing bridges in earthquake prone areas are pre-1990 bridges and were designed with out of date regulation codes. The occurrences of strong motions in different parts of the world show every year the vulnerability of these structures. Nonlinear dynamic time history analyses were conducted to assess the seismic vulnerability of typical pre-1990 bridges. A family of existing concrete bridge representative of the most common bridges in the highway system in Iran is studied. The seismic demand consists in a set of far-field and near-field strong motions to evaluate the likelihood of exceeding the seismic capacity of the mentioned bridges. The peak ground accelerations (PGAs) were scaled and applied incrementally to the 3D models to evaluate the seismic performance of the bridges. The superstructure was assumed to remain elastic and the nonlinear behavior in piers was modeled by assigning plastic hinges in columns. In this study the displacement ductility and the PGA are selected as a seismic performance indicator and intensity measure, respectively. The results show that pre-1990 bridges subjected to near-fault ground motions reach minor and moderate damage states.

Application of the principal component analysis (PCA) to HVSR data aimed at the seismic characterization of earthquake prone areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paolucci, Enrico; Lunedei, Enrico; Albarello, Dario

2017-10-01

In this work, we propose a procedure based on principal component analysis on data sets consisting of many horizontal to vertical spectral ratio (HVSR or H/V) curves obtained by single-station ambient vibration acquisitions. This kind of analysis aimed at the seismic characterization of the investigated area by identifying sites characterized by similar HVSR curves. It also allows to extract the typical HVSR patterns of the explored area and to establish their relative importance, providing an estimate of the level of heterogeneity under the seismic point of view. In this way, an automatic explorative seismic characterization of the area becomes possible by only considering ambient vibration data. This also implies that the relevant outcomes can be safely compared with other available information (geological data, borehole measurements, etc.) without any conceptual trade-off. The whole algorithm is remarkably fast: on a common personal computer, the processing time takes few seconds for a data set including 100-200 HVSR measurements. The procedure has been tested in three study areas in the Central-Northern Italy characterized by different geological settings. Outcomes demonstrate that this technique is effective and well correlates with most significant seismostratigraphical heterogeneities present in each of the study areas.

Medical Requirements During a Natural Disaster: A Case Study on WhatsApp Chats Among Medical Personnel During the 2015 Nepal Earthquake.

PubMed

Basu, Moumita; Ghosh, Saptarshi; Jana, Arnab; Bandyopadhyay, Somprakash; Singh, Ravikant

2017-12-01

The objective of this study was to explore a log of WhatsApp messages exchanged among members of the health care group Doctors For You (DFY) while they were providing medical relief in the aftermath of the Nepal earthquake in April 2015. Our motivation was to identify medical resource requirements during a disaster in order to help government agencies and other responding organizations to be better prepared in any upcoming disaster. A large set of WhatsApp (WhatsApp Inc, Mountain View, CA) messages exchanged among DFY members during the Nepal earthquake was collected and analyzed to identify the medical resource requirements during different phases of relief operations. The study revealed detailed phase-wise requirements for various types of medical resources, including medicines, medical equipment, and medical personnel. The data also reflected some of the problems faced by the medical relief workers in the earthquake-affected region. The insights from this study may help not only the Nepalese government, but also authorities in other earthquake-prone regions of the world to better prepare for similar disasters in the future. Moreover, real-time analysis of such online data during a disaster would aid decision-makers in dynamically formulating resource-mapping strategies. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:652-655).

Estimation of Surface Deformation due to Pasni Earthquake Using SAR Interferometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ali, M.; Shahzad, M. I.; Nazeer, M.; Kazmi, J. H.

2018-04-01

Earthquake cause ground deformation in sedimented surface areas like Pasni and that is a hazard. Such earthquake induced ground displacements can seriously damage building structures. On 7 February 2017, an earthquake with 6.3 magnitudes strike near to Pasni. We have successfully distinguished widely spread ground displacements for the Pasni earthquake by using InSAR-based analysis with Sentinel-1 satellite C-band data. The maps of surface displacement field resulting from the earthquake are generated. Sentinel-1 Wide Swath data acquired from 9 December 2016 to 28 February 2017 was used to generate displacement map. The interferogram revealed the area of deformation. The comparison map of interferometric vertical displacement in different time period was treated as an evidence of deformation caused by earthquake. Profile graphs of interferogram were created to estimate the vertical displacement range and trend. Pasni lies in strong earthquake magnitude effected area. The major surface deformation areas are divided into different zones based on significance of deformation. The average displacement in Pasni is estimated about 250 mm. Maximum pasni area is uplifted by earthquake and maximum uplifting occurs was about 1200 mm. Some of areas was subsidized like the areas near to shoreline and maximum subsidence was estimated about 1500 mm. Pasni is facing many problems due to increasing sea water intrusion under prevailing climatic change where land deformation due to a strong earthquake can augment its vulnerability.

Relocation of micro-earthquakes in the Yeongdeok offshore area, Korea using local and Ocean bottom seismometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

HAN, M.; Kim, K. H.; Park, S. C.; Lin, P. P.; Chen, P.; Chang, H.; Jang, J. P.; Kuo, B. Y.; Liao, Y. C.

2016-12-01

Seismicity in the East Sea of Korea has been relatively high during the last four decades of instrumental earthquake observation period. Yeongdeok offshore area is probably the most seismically active area in the East Sea. This study analyzes seismic signals to detect micro-earthquakes and determine their precise earthquake hypocenters in the Yeoungdeok offshore area using data recorded by the Korea National Seismic Network (KNSN) and a temporary ocean bottom seismographic network (OBSN-PNU) operated by Korea Meteorological Administration and Pusan National University, respectively. Continuous waveform data recorded at four seismic stations in the study area of KNSN between January 2007 and July 2016 are inspected to detect any repeating earthquakes by applying a waveform cross-correlation detector. More than 1,600 events are triggered. Events outside the study area or in poor waveform quality are removed from further analysis. Approximately 500 earthquakes are selected, most of which have gone unreported because their magnitudes are lower than the detection threshold of the routine earthquake monitoring. Events in the study area are also under bad azimuthal coverage because all stations are located on land and thus biased to the west. OBSN-PNU comprised three ocean bottom seismometers and operated to observe micro-earthquakes in the study area between February and August 2016. The same technique applied to the KNSN data has been applied to the OBSN-PNU data to detect micro-earthquakes. Precise earthquake hypocenters are determined using phase arrival times and waveform similarities. Resultant hypocenters are clustered to form a few lineaments. They are compared to the local geological and geophysical features to understand micro-earthquake activity in the area.

Socio-Economic Appraisal of Flood Hazard among the Riparian Communities: Case Study of Brahmaputra Valley in Assam; India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Nikhil; Wasini Pandey, Bindhy

2017-04-01

Brahmaputra valley of Assam is one of the most hazard prone areas of the Indian subcontinent. Recurring floods have severely affected the riparian communities of the region since time immemorial. But, the frequency of the problem has been intensified after the great earthquakes of 1897 and 1950. These two extreme earthquakes have disturbed the geological setting of the basin and the channel morphology has been altered henceforth. The impact of floods on riparian communities in Brahmaputra valley has been abysmal. During the monsoon season almost 30 per cent of the valley has been inundated with floods and the riparian communities are mostly affected. Large chunk of people have been uprooted from their native lands due to recurring floods in the low lying areas of the region. Although it is impossible to quantify the human tragedy during the natural disasters, but one can easily understand the situation by the facts that about 1.8 million people and 200,000 hectares of farmland were affected in the 2016 floods of Assam. In the present study, an attempt has been made to assess the spatio-temporal changes of the morphology of Brahmaputra River and its impact on the livelihood of the riparian communities. For that, LANDSAT and SENTINEL imageries have been used to examine the shifting of bank lines of three decades. CARTOSAT DEM has been used to prepare the FLOOD HAZARD ZONATION map of the Brahmaputra valley to examine the flood vulnerable areas of the region. The present study also tries to explain the livelihood condition of the Internally Displaced Persons and their social cohesion. Keywords: Brahmaputra River, Flood, LANDSAT, CARTOSAT DEM, FLOOD HAZARD ZONATION, Riparian Communities

Landslide susceptibility mapping for a part of North Anatolian Fault Zone (Northeast Turkey) using logistic regression model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demir, Gökhan; aytekin, mustafa; banu ikizler, sabriye; angın, zekai

2013-04-01

The North Anatolian Fault is know as one of the most active and destructive fault zone which produced many earthquakes with high magnitudes. Along this fault zone, the morphology and the lithological features are prone to landsliding. However, many earthquake induced landslides were recorded by several studies along this fault zone, and these landslides caused both injuiries and live losts. Therefore, a detailed landslide susceptibility assessment for this area is indispancable. In this context, a landslide susceptibility assessment for the 1445 km2 area in the Kelkit River valley a part of North Anatolian Fault zone (Eastern Black Sea region of Turkey) was intended with this study, and the results of this study are summarized here. For this purpose, geographical information system (GIS) and a bivariate statistical model were used. Initially, Landslide inventory maps are prepared by using landslide data determined by field surveys and landslide data taken from General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration. The landslide conditioning factors are considered to be lithology, slope gradient, slope aspect, topographical elevation, distance to streams, distance to roads and distance to faults, drainage density and fault density. ArcGIS package was used to manipulate and analyze all the collected data Logistic regression method was applied to create a landslide susceptibility map. Landslide susceptibility maps were divided into five susceptibility regions such as very low, low, moderate, high and very high. The result of the analysis was verified using the inventoried landslide locations and compared with the produced probability model. For this purpose, Area Under Curvature (AUC) approach was applied, and a AUC value was obtained. Based on this AUC value, the obtained landslide susceptibility map was concluded as satisfactory. Keywords: North Anatolian Fault Zone, Landslide susceptibility map, Geographical Information Systems, Logistic Regression Analysis.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for a NPP in the Upper Rhine Graben, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clément, Christophe; Chartier, Thomas; Jomard, Hervé; Baize, Stéphane; Scotti, Oona; Cushing, Edward

2015-04-01

The southern part of the Upper Rhine Graben (URG) straddling the border between eastern France and western Germany, presents a relatively important seismic activity for an intraplate area. A magnitude 5 or greater shakes the URG every 25 years and in 1356 a magnitude greater than 6.5 struck the city of Basel. Several potentially active faults have been identified in the area and documented in the French Active Fault Database (web site in construction). These faults are located along the Graben boundaries and also inside the Graben itself, beneath heavily populated areas and critical facilities (including the Fessenheim Nuclear Power Plant). These faults are prone to produce earthquakes with magnitude 6 and above. Published regional models and preliminary geomorphological investigations provided provisional assessment of slip rates for the individual faults (0.1-0.001 mm/a) resulting in recurrence time of 10 000 years or greater for magnitude 6+ earthquakes. Using a fault model, ground motion response spectra are calculated for annual frequencies of exceedance (AFE) ranging from 10-4 to 10-8 per year, typical for design basis and probabilistic safety analyses of NPPs. A logic tree is implemented to evaluate uncertainties in seismic hazard assessment. The choice of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and range of slip rate uncertainty are the main sources of seismic hazard variability at the NPP site. In fact, the hazard for AFE lower than 10-4 is mostly controlled by the potentially active nearby Rhine River fault. Compared with areal source zone models, a fault model localizes the hazard around the active faults and changes the shape of the Uniform Hazard Spectrum at the site. Seismic hazard deaggregations are performed to identify the earthquake scenarios (including magnitude, distance and the number of standard deviations from the median ground motion as predicted by GMPEs) that contribute to the exceedance of spectral acceleration for the different AFE levels. These scenarios are finally examined with respect to the seismicity data available in paleoseismic, historic and instrumental catalogues.

L'Aquila's reconstruction challenges: has Italy learned from its previous earthquake disasters?

PubMed

Ozerdem, Alpaslan; Rufini, Gianni

2013-01-01

Italy is an earthquake-prone country and its disaster emergency response experiences over the past few decades have varied greatly, with some being much more successful than others. Overall, however, its reconstruction efforts have been criticised for being ad hoc, delayed, ineffective, and untargeted. In addition, while the emergency relief response to the L'Aquila earthquake of 6 April 2009-the primary case study in this evaluation-seems to have been successful, the reconstruction initiative got off to a very problematic start. To explore the root causes of this phenomenon, the paper argues that, owing to the way in which Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has politicised the process, the L'Aquila reconstruction endeavour is likely to suffer problems with local ownership, national/regional/municipal coordination, and corruption. It concludes with a set of recommendations aimed at addressing the pitfalls that may confront the L'Aquila reconstruction process over the next few years. © 2013 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2013.

Mapping radon-prone areas using γ-radiation dose rate and geological information.

PubMed

García-Talavera, M; García-Pérez, A; Rey, C; Ramos, L

2013-09-01

Identifying radon-prone areas is key to policies on the control of this environmental carcinogen. In the current paper, we present the methodology followed to delineate radon-prone areas in Spain. It combines information from indoor radon measurements with γ-radiation and geological maps. The advantage of the proposed approach is that it lessens the requirement for a high density of measurements by making use of commonly available information. It can be applied for an initial definition of radon-prone areas in countries committed to introducing a national radon policy or to improving existing radon maps in low population regions.

Environmental Health Risk Assesement in Flood-prone Area in Tamangapa Sub-District Makassar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haris, Ibrahim Abdul; Basir, Basir

2018-05-01

Environmental health in Indonesia is still caution to concern, poor sanitation in Indonesia is characterized by the high incidence of infectious diseases in society. The society in flood-prone area has a high-risk exposure on the disease based on the environment because they live in disaster-prone area. This research aimed to describe the condition of sanitary facilities and risky behavior on public health in flood-prone areas in Manggala district particularly in Tamangapa sub-district of Makassar. This reserach uses an observation method with a descriptive approach. The data is processed by using SPSS and Arc View GIS applications. Environmental risk category is determined by the approach of Environmental Health Risk Assessment (EHRA). The results showed that the flood-prone area in RT 04 RW 06 was included in very high-risk category at 229 with an index value of environmental health risks 212-229. Meanwhile, RT 04 RW 05 was in the category of low risk in the amount of 155 with an index of 155-173. Environmental health hazards identified in Tamangapa flood-prone areas sub-district includes domestic sources of clean water, domestic wastewater, and household garbage.

Landslide Hazard Analysis and Damage Assessment for Tourism Destination at Candikuning Village, Tabanan Regency, Bali, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sunarta, I. N.; Susila, K. D.; Kariasa, I. N.

2018-02-01

Landslide is a movement down the slope by the soil mass or slope constituent rock, a result of disturbance of the stability of the soil or rocks that make up the slope.Bali as one of the best tourism destinations in the world, also has landslide prone areas. Tourism attraction in Bali that is prone to landslides are Lake Beratan and Pura Ulun Danu Beratan in Candikuning Village, Tabanan Regency, Bali Province, Indonesia. Candikunig village area has tourismdestination, settlements and agricultural land. This study aims to analyze landslide- prone areas and the losses caused by landslides include damage analysis for the attractions of Beratan Lake and Ulun Danu Beratan Temple and settlements. The method used is matching and scoring with parameters of rainfall, soil type, slope and land use.The result is, Beratan Lake area has moderate to high landslide prone areas in the eastern and southern parts where most of the settlements in Candikuning Village are located in areas prone to moderate and high landslides hazard.

Spatial patterns of natural hazards mortality in the United States

PubMed Central

Borden, Kevin A; Cutter, Susan L

2008-01-01

Background Studies on natural hazard mortality are most often hazard-specific (e.g. floods, earthquakes, heat), event specific (e.g. Hurricane Katrina), or lack adequate temporal or geographic coverage. This makes it difficult to assess mortality from natural hazards in any systematic way. This paper examines the spatial patterns of natural hazard mortality at the county-level for the U.S. from 1970–2004 using a combination of geographical and epidemiological methods. Results Chronic everyday hazards such as severe weather (summer and winter) and heat account for the majority of natural hazard fatalities. The regions most prone to deaths from natural hazards are the South and intermountain west, but sub-regional county-level mortality patterns show more variability. There is a distinct urban/rural component to the county patterns as well as a coastal trend. Significant clusters of high mortality are in the lower Mississippi Valley, upper Great Plains, and Mountain West, with additional areas in west Texas, and the panhandle of Florida, Significant clusters of low mortality are in the Midwest and urbanized Northeast. Conclusion There is no consistent source of hazard mortality data, yet improvements in existing databases can produce quality data that can be incorporated into spatial epidemiological studies as demonstrated in this paper. It is important to view natural hazard mortality through a geographic lens so as to better inform the public living in such hazard prone areas, but more importantly to inform local emergency practitioners who must plan for and respond to disasters in their community. PMID:19091058

Social vulnerability assessment using spatial multi-criteria analysis (SEVI model) and the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI model) - a case study for Bucharest, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armaş, I.; Gavriş, A.

2013-06-01

In recent decades, the development of vulnerability frameworks has enlarged the research in the natural hazards field. Despite progress in developing the vulnerability studies, there is more to investigate regarding the quantitative approach and clarification of the conceptual explanation of the social component. At the same time, some disaster-prone areas register limited attention. Among these, Romania's capital city, Bucharest, is the most earthquake-prone capital in Europe and the tenth in the world. The location is used to assess two multi-criteria methods for aggregating complex indicators: the social vulnerability index (SoVI model) and the spatial multi-criteria social vulnerability index (SEVI model). Using the data of the 2002 census we reduce the indicators through a factor analytical approach to create the indices and examine if they bear any resemblance to the known vulnerability of Bucharest city through an exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA). This is a critical issue that may provide better understanding of the social vulnerability in the city and appropriate information for authorities and stakeholders to consider in their decision making. The study emphasizes that social vulnerability is an urban process that increased in a post-communist Bucharest, raising the concern that the population at risk lacks the capacity to cope with disasters. The assessment of the indices indicates a significant and similar clustering pattern of the census administrative units, with an overlap between the clustering areas affected by high social vulnerability. Our proposed SEVI model suggests adjustment sensitivity, useful in the expert-opinion accuracy.

Food Guide Pagoda and the food safety of women: one-year follow-up study on the effects of the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake.

PubMed

Xu, Xianglong; Li, Bing; Bai, Ruixue; Rao, Yunshuang; Liu, Lingli; Reis, Cesar; Sharma, Manoj; Zhao, Yong

2018-01-01

Women are a dominant force in the family's diet and nutrition in China. The shortterm effects of the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake were found. However, the long-term effects of the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake on the food safety, energy, and intake frequency of women remain unclear. This study analyzed the effects of the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake on the dietary behaviors of women one year after the earthquake. In this cross-sectional study, a total of 207 women were selected using the proportional sampling method. Among them, 91 were from the earthquake-affected area and 116 were from the non-affected area. Women from the earthquake-affected area paid significantly more attention to health, diet, food and water safety after the earthquake (p<0.05 for each category) when compared with those from the non-affected area. Women from the earthquake-affected area also had a significantly higher proportion of adequate understanding of low-energy food, properly separated their raw food from cooked food, ate high-energy food, and picky eating habits (p<0.05 for each category) than those from the non-affected area. In addition, women from the earthquake-affected area were more likely to adhere to the 2007 Chinese Food Guide Pagoda (FGP) guidelines for eating rice than those from the non-affected area (OR=2.25, 95% CI [1.13, 4.51]). The female survivors of the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake preferred high-energy food, paid more attention to food safety, and were more likely to adhere to FGP when compared to those that did not undergo the same tragedy.

Applicability of source scaling relations for crustal earthquakes to estimation of the ground motions of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irikura, Kojiro; Miyakoshi, Ken; Kamae, Katsuhiro; Yoshida, Kunikazu; Somei, Kazuhiro; Kurahashi, Susumu; Miyake, Hiroe

2017-01-01

A two-stage scaling relationship of the source parameters for crustal earthquakes in Japan has previously been constructed, in which source parameters obtained from the results of waveform inversion of strong motion data are combined with parameters estimated based on geological and geomorphological surveys. A three-stage scaling relationship was subsequently developed to extend scaling to crustal earthquakes with magnitudes greater than M w 7.4. The effectiveness of these scaling relationships was then examined based on the results of waveform inversion of 18 recent crustal earthquakes ( M w 5.4-6.9) that occurred in Japan since the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake. The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, with M w 7.0, was one of the largest earthquakes to occur since dense and accurate strong motion observation networks, such as K-NET and KiK-net, were deployed after the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake. We examined the applicability of the scaling relationships of the source parameters of crustal earthquakes in Japan to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake. The rupture area and asperity area were determined based on slip distributions obtained from waveform inversion of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake observations. We found that the relationship between the rupture area and the seismic moment for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake follows the second-stage scaling within one standard deviation ( σ = 0.14). The ratio of the asperity area to the rupture area for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake is nearly the same as ratios previously obtained for crustal earthquakes. Furthermore, we simulated the ground motions of this earthquake using a characterized source model consisting of strong motion generation areas (SMGAs) based on the empirical Green's function (EGF) method. The locations and areas of the SMGAs were determined through comparison between the synthetic ground motions and observed motions. The sizes of the SMGAs were nearly coincident with the asperities with large slip. The synthetic ground motions obtained using the EGF method agree well with the observed motions in terms of acceleration, velocity, and displacement within the frequency range of 0.3-10 Hz. These findings indicate that the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake is a standard event that follows the scaling relationship of crustal earthquakes in Japan.

Seismic Characterization of the Jakarta Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cipta, A.; Saygin, E.; Cummins, P. R.; Masturyono, M.; Rudyanto, A.; Irsyam, M.

2015-12-01

Jakarta, Indonesia, is home to more than 10 million people. Many of these people live in seismically non-resilient structures in an area that historical records suggest is prone to earthquake shaking. The city lies in a sedimentary basin composed of Quaternary alluvium that experiences rapid subsidence (26 cm/year) due to groundwater extraction. Forecasts of how much subsidence may occur in the future are dependent on the thickness of the basin. However, basin geometry and sediment thickness are poorly known. In term of seismic hazard, thick loose sediment can lead to high amplification of seismic waves, of the kind that led to widespread damage in Mexico city during the Michoacan Earthquake of 1985. In order to characterize basin structure, a temporary seismograph deployment was undertaken in Jakarta in Oct 2013- Jan 2014. A total of 96 seismic instrument were deployed throughout Jakarta were deployed throughout Jakarta at 3-5 km spacing. Ambient noise tomography was applied to obtain models of the subsurface velocity structure. Important key, low velocity anomalies at short period (<8s) correspond to the main sedimentary sub-basins thought to be present based on geological interpretations of shallow stratigraphy in the Jakarta Basin. The result shows that at a depth of 300 m, shear-wave velocity in the northern part (600 m/s) of the basin is lower than that in the southern part. The most prominent low velocity structure appears in the northwest of the basin, down to a depth of 800 m, with velocity as low as 1200 m/s. This very low velocity indicates the thickness of sediment and the variability of basin geometry. Waveform computation using SPECFEM2D shows that amplification due to basin geometry occurs at the basin edge and the thick sediment leads to amplification at the basin center. Computation also shows the longer shaking duration occurrs at the basin edge and center of the basin. The nest step will be validating the basin model using earthquake events recorded by the Jakarta array. The Bohol 2013 earthquake is one good candidate event for model validation. This will require using a source model for the Bohol earthquake and a plane wave input to SPECFEM3D.

Bi-directional volcano-earthquake interaction at Mauna Loa Volcano, Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walter, T. R.; Amelung, F.

2004-12-01

At Mauna Loa volcano, Hawaii, large-magnitude earthquakes occur mostly at the west flank (Kona area), at the southeast flank (Hilea area), and at the east flank (Kaoiki area). Eruptions at Mauna Loa occur mostly at the summit region and along fissures at the southwest rift zone (SWRZ), or at the northeast rift zone (NERZ). Although historic earthquakes and eruptions at these zones appear to correlate in space and time, the mechanisms and implications of an eruption-earthquake interaction was not cleared. Our analysis of available factual data reveals the highly statistical significance of eruption-earthquake pairs, with a random probability of 5-to-15 percent. We clarify this correlation with the help of elastic stress-field models, where (i) we simulate earthquakes and calculate the resulting normal stress change at volcanic active zones of Mauna Loa, and (ii) we simulate intrusions in Mauna Loa and calculate the Coulomb stress change at the active fault zones. Our models suggest that Hilea earthquakes encourage dike intrusion in the SWRZ, Kona earthquakes encourage dike intrusion at the summit and in the SWRZ, and Kaoiki earthquakes encourage dike intrusion in the NERZ. Moreover, a dike in the SWRZ encourages earthquakes in the Hilea and Kona areas. A dike in the NERZ may encourage and discourage earthquakes in the Hilea and Kaoiki areas. The modeled stress change patterns coincide remarkably with the patterns of several historic eruption-earthquake pairs, clarifying the mechanisms of bi-directional volcano-earthquake interaction for Mauna Loa. The results imply that at Mauna Loa volcanic activity influences the timing and location of earthquakes, and that earthquakes influence the timing, location and the volume of eruptions. In combination with near real-time geodetic and seismic monitoring, these findings may improve volcano-tectonic risk assessment.

44 CFR 60.24 - Planning considerations for flood-related erosion-prone areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... flood-related erosion-prone areas. 60.24 Section 60.24 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program CRITERIA FOR LAND MANAGEMENT AND USE Additional Considerations in Managing Flood-Prone...

A longitudinal study of posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms and its relationship with coping skill and locus of control in adolescents after an earthquake in China.

PubMed

Zhang, Weiqing; Liu, Hui; Jiang, Xiaolian; Wu, Dongmei; Tian, Yali

2014-01-01

Post-traumatic stress disorder is a common psychological maladaptation among adolescents after undergoing an earthquake. Knowledge about the prevalence and maintenance of post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms and the changes of its predictors over time can help medical providers assist adolescent survivors with mitigating long-term impacts. This study examined the changes in posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms and its relationship with coping skill and locus of control among adolescent earthquake survivors in China. The study used an observational longitudinal design. A total of 1420 adolescents were evaluated twice after the earthquake by using the Post-traumatic stress disorder Checklist-Civilian Version, The Internality, Powerful others and Chance scale and the Coping Styles Scale. The results indicated that the mean scores of posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms were decreased significantly and the positive rates of posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms also declined remarkably at 17 months compared to the 3 months post-earthquake. Internality locus of control and problem solving coping skill were effective resilient factors for the development and maintenance of posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms, while chance locus of control was a powerful risk factor of posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms as well as being female, being injured and property loss. Continuous screening is recommended to identify adolescent earthquake survivors with posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms. More attention should be paid to adolescent survivors who are prone to adopt passive coping strategies responding to trauma events and who own external causal attribution.

Earthquake precursors: spatial-temporal gravity changes before the great earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Yi-Qing; Liang, Wei-Feng; Zhang, Song

2018-01-01

Using multiple-scale mobile gravity data in the Sichuan-Yunnan area, we systematically analyzed the relationships between spatial-temporal gravity changes and the 2014 Ludian, Yunnan Province Ms6.5 earthquake and the 2014 Kangding Ms6.3, 2013 Lushan Ms7.0, and 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquakes in Sichuan Province. Our main results are as follows. (1) Before the occurrence of large earthquakes, gravity anomalies occur in a large area around the epicenters. The directions of gravity change gradient belts usually agree roughly with the directions of the main fault zones of the study area. Such gravity changes might reflect the increase of crustal stress, as well as the significant active tectonic movements and surface deformations along fault zones, during the period of gestation of great earthquakes. (2) Continuous significant changes of the multiple-scale gravity fields, as well as greater gravity changes with larger time scales, can be regarded as medium-range precursors of large earthquakes. The subsequent large earthquakes always occur in the area where the gravity changes greatly. (3) The spatial-temporal gravity changes are very useful in determining the epicenter of coming large earthquakes. The large gravity networks are useful to determine the general areas of coming large earthquakes. However, the local gravity networks with high spatial-temporal resolution are suitable for determining the location of epicenters. Therefore, denser gravity observation networks are necessary for better forecasts of the epicenters of large earthquakes. (4) Using gravity changes from mobile observation data, we made medium-range forecasts of the Kangding, Ludian, Lushan, and Wenchuan earthquakes, with especially successful forecasts of the location of their epicenters. Based on the above discussions, we emphasize that medium-/long-term potential for large earthquakes might exist nowadays in some areas with significant gravity anomalies in the study region. Thus, the monitoring should be strengthened.

Geomorphic legacy of medieval Himalayan earthquakes in the Pokhara Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R.; Andermann, Christoff; Tofelde, Stefanie; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

2016-04-01

The Himalayas and their foreland belong to the world's most earthquake-prone regions. With millions of people at risk from severe ground shaking and associated damages, reliable data on the spatial and temporal occurrence of past major earthquakes is urgently needed to inform seismic risk analysis. Beyond the instrumental record such information has been largely based on historical accounts and trench studies. Written records provide evidence for damages and fatalities, yet are difficult to interpret when derived from the far-field. Trench studies, in turn, offer information on rupture histories, lengths and displacements along faults but involve high chronological uncertainties and fail to record earthquakes that do not rupture the surface. Thus, additional and independent information is required for developing reliable earthquake histories. Here, we present exceptionally well-dated evidence of catastrophic valley infill in the Pokhara Valley, Nepal. Bayesian calibration of radiocarbon dates from peat beds, plant macrofossils, and humic silts in fine-grained tributary sediments yields a robust age distribution that matches the timing of nearby M>8 earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 AD. The upstream dip of tributary valley fills and X-ray fluorescence spectrometry of their provenance rule out local sediment sources. Instead, geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation and debris flows that had plugged several tributaries with tens of meters of calcareous sediment from the Annapurna Massif >60 km away. The landscape-changing consequences of past large Himalayan earthquakes have so far been elusive. Catastrophic aggradation in the wake of two historically documented medieval earthquakes and one inferred from trench studies underscores that Himalayan valley fills should be considered as potential archives of past earthquakes. Such valley fills are pervasive in the Lesser Himalaya though high erosion rates reduce preservation potential. Further studies may wish to seek such remnants of prehistoric earthquakes using extensive sedimentological work as well as numerical age control.

Reactivity of seismicity rate to static Coulomb stress changes of two consecutive large earthquakes in the central Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dianala, J. D. B.; Aurelio, M.; Rimando, J. M.; Taguibao, K.

2015-12-01

In a region with little understanding in terms of active faults and seismicity, two large-magnitude reverse-fault related earthquakes occurred within 100km of each other in separate islands of the Central Philippines—the Mw=6.7 February 2012 Negros earthquake and the Mw=7.2 October 2013 Bohol earthquake. Based on source faults that were defined using onshore, offshore seismic reflection, and seismicity data, stress transfer models for both earthquakes were calculated using the software Coulomb. Coulomb stress triggering between the two main shocks is unlikely as the stress change caused by Negros earthquake on the Bohol fault was -0.03 bars. Correlating the stress changes on optimally-oriented reverse faults with seismicity rate changes shows that areas that decreased both in static stress and seismicity rate after the first earthquake were then areas with increased static stress and increased seismicity rate caused by the second earthquake. These areas with now increased stress, especially those with seismicity showing reactivity to static stress changes caused by the two earthquakes, indicate the presence of active structures in the island of Cebu. Comparing the history of instrumentally recorded seismicity and the recent large earthquakes of Negros and Bohol, these structures in Cebu have the potential to generate large earthquakes. Given that the Philippines' second largest metropolitan area (Metro Cebu) is in close proximity, detailed analysis of the earthquake potential and seismic hazards in these areas should be undertaken.

The Alaska earthquake, March 27, 1964: lessons and conclusions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eckel, Edwin B.

1970-01-01

One of the greatest earthquakes of all time struck south-central Alaska on March 27, 1964. Strong motion lasted longer than for most recorded earthquakes, and more land surface was dislocated, vertically and horizontally, than by any known previous temblor. Never before were so many effects on earth processes and on the works of man available for study by scientists and engineers over so great an area. The seismic vibrations, which directly or indirectly caused most of the damage, were but surface manifestations of a great geologic event-the dislocation of a huge segment of the crust along a deeply buried fault whose nature and even exact location are still subjects for speculation. Not only was the land surface tilted by the great tectonic event beneath it, with resultant seismic sea waves that traversed the entire Pacific, but an enormous mass of land and sea floor moved several tens of feet horizontally toward the Gulf of Alaska. Downslope mass movements of rock, earth, and snow were initiated. Subaqueous slides along lake shores and seacoasts, near-horizontal movements of mobilized soil (“landspreading”), and giant translatory slides in sensitive clay did the most damage and provided the most new knowledge as to the origin, mechanics, and possible means of control or avoidance of such movements. The slopes of most of the deltas that slid in 1964, and that produced destructive local waves, are still as steep or steeper than they were before the earthquake and hence would be unstable or metastable in the event of another great earthquake. Rockslide avalanches provided new evidence that such masses may travel on cushions of compressed air, but a widely held theory that glaciers surge after an earthquake has not been substantiated. Innumerable ground fissures, many of them marked by copious emissions of water, caused much damage in towns and along transportation routes. Vibration also consolidated loose granular materials. In some coastal areas, local subsidence was superimposed on regional tectonic subsidence to heighten the flooding damage. Ground and surface waters were measurably affected by the earthquake, not only in Alaska but throughout the world. Expectably, local geologic conditions largely controlled the extent of structural damage, whether caused directly by seismic vibrations or by secondary effects such as those just described. Intensity was greatest in areas underlain by thick saturated unconsolidated deposits, least on indurated bedrock or permanently frozen ground, and intermediate on coarse well-drained gravel, on morainal deposits, or on moderately indurated sedimentary rocks. Local and even regional geology also controlled the distribution and extent of the earthquake's effects on hydrologic systems. In the conterminous United States, for example, seiches in wells and bodies of surface water were controlled by geologic structures of regional dimension. Devastating as the earthquake was, it had many long-term beneficial effects. Many of these were socioeconomic or engineering in nature; others were of scientific value. Much new and corroborative basic geologic and hydrologic information was accumulated in the course of the earthquake studies, and many new or improved investigative techniques were developed. Chief among these, perhaps, were the recognition that lakes can be used as giant tiltmeters, the refinement of methods for measuring land-level changes by observing displacements of barnacles and other sessile organisms, and the relating of hydrology to seismology by worldwide study of hydroseisms in surface-water bodies and in wells. The geologic and hydrologic lessons learned from studies of the Alaska earthquake also lead directly to better definition of the research needed to further our understanding of earthquakes and of how to avoid or lessen the effects of future ones. Research is needed on the origins and mechanisms of earthquakes, on crustal structure, and on the generation of tsunamis and local waves. Better earthquake-hazard maps, based on improved knowledge of regional geology, fault behavior, and earthquake mechanisms, are needed for the entire country. Their preparation will require the close collaboration of engineers, seismologists, and geologists. Geologic maps of all inhabited places in earthquake-prone parts of the country are also needed by city planners and others, because the direct relationship between local geology and potential earthquake damage is now well understood. Improved and enlarged nets of earthquake-sensing instruments, sited in relation to known geology, are needed, as are many more geodetic and hydrographic measurements. Every large earthquake, wherever located, should be regarded as a full-scale laboratory experiment whose study can give scientific and engineering information unobtainable from any other source. Plans must be made before the event to insure staffing, funding, and coordination of effort for the scientific and engineering study of future earthquakes. Advice of earth scientists and engineers should be used in the decision-making processes involved in reconstruction after any future disastrous earthquake, as was done after the Alaska earthquake. The volume closes with a selected bibliography and a comprehensive index to the entire series of U.S. Geological Survey Professional Papers 541-546. This is the last in a series of six reports that the U.S. Geological Survey published on the results of a comprehensive geologic study that began, as a reconnaissance survey, within 24 hours after the March 27, 1964, Magnitude 9.2 Great Alaska Earthquake and extended, as detailed investigations, through several field seasons. The 1964 Great Alaska earthquake was the largest earthquake in the U.S. since 1700. Professional Paper 546, in 1 part, describes Lessons and Conclusions.

Seismic Disaster Mitigation in Urban Area by using Building Vibration Observation of Weak Earthquake Ground Motion: an Approach of the IT Kyoshin Seismometer for Buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takano, K.; Ito, T.

2010-12-01

There are a lot of buildings which is not experienced severe earthquakes in urban area. In Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake, it was presumed that 80 percent or more of the person was dead immediately after the earthquake by building collapse. Also in Haiti, a lot of buildings deprived of the life of persons. In order to prevent the earthquake damage of urban area, it is the most effective to make the building earthquake-proof. However, there are still a lot of buildings not made earthquake-proof in Japan though 15 years passed since Kobe Earthquake. In order to promote making of the building earthquake-proof, various approaches such as visualization of seismic hazard, education of disaster prevention and legal system for promotion are needed. We have developed the IT Kyoshin(strong motion) Seismometer for Building which is the observation system of the usual weak earthquake ground motion by installing a lot of acceleration sensors in building, and have been setting it up in some buildings of the University of Tokyo. We have also developed the visualization tool that can reproduce the building vibration during earthquake from the observed data. By this tool, we can successfully show where is more shaking in the building or what is the feature of building vibration easily. Such information contributes to not only promotion of making building earthquake-proof but also promotion of disaster prevention action such as fixation of bookshelf, making the safety area in building, etc. In addition, we proposed a concrete technique of the health investigation of buildings by using weak earthquake ground motion. Because there are 20 to 30 felt earthquakes in year in Tokyo area, it is possible to observe these building vibrations by using weak earthquake ground motions. In addition, we have developed the high sensitive ITK sensor which can observe from the microtremor to the felt earthquake in the place without the felt earthquake either.

Methodologies for the assessment of earthquake-triggered landslides hazard. A comparison of Logistic Regression and Artificial Neural Network models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Rodríguez, M. J.; Malpica, J. A.; Benito, B.

2009-04-01

In recent years, interest in landslide hazard assessment studies has increased substantially. They are appropriate for evaluation and mitigation plan development in landslide-prone areas. There are several techniques available for landslide hazard research at a regional scale. Generally, they can be classified in two groups: qualitative and quantitative methods. Most of qualitative methods tend to be subjective, since they depend on expert opinions and represent hazard levels in descriptive terms. On the other hand, quantitative methods are objective and they are commonly used due to the correlation between the instability factors and the location of the landslides. Within this group, statistical approaches and new heuristic techniques based on artificial intelligence (artificial neural network (ANN), fuzzy logic, etc.) provide rigorous analysis to assess landslide hazard over large regions. However, they depend on qualitative and quantitative data, scale, types of movements and characteristic factors used. We analysed and compared an approach for assessing earthquake-triggered landslides hazard using logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural networks (ANN) with a back-propagation learning algorithm. One application has been developed in El Salvador, a country of Central America where the earthquake-triggered landslides are usual phenomena. In a first phase, we analysed the susceptibility and hazard associated to the seismic scenario of the 2001 January 13th earthquake. We calibrated the models using data from the landslide inventory for this scenario. These analyses require input variables representing physical parameters to contribute to the initiation of slope instability, for example, slope gradient, elevation, aspect, mean annual precipitation, lithology, land use, and terrain roughness, while the occurrence or non-occurrence of landslides is considered as dependent variable. The results of the landslide susceptibility analysis are checked using landslide location data. These results show a high concordance between the landslide inventory and the high susceptibility estimated zone with an adjustment of 95.1 % for ANN model and 89.4% for LR model. In addition, we make a comparative analysis of both techniques using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, a graphical plot of the sensitivity vs. (1 - specificity) for a binary classifier system in function of its discrimination threshold, and calculating the Area Under the ROC (AUROC) value for each model. Finally, the previous models are used for the developing a new probabilistic landslide hazard map for future events. They are obtained combining the expected triggering factor (calculated earthquake ground motion) for a return period of 475 years with the susceptibility map.

Probability Assessment of Mega-thrust Earthquakes in Global Subduction Zones　-from the View of Slip Deficit-

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikuta, R.; Mitsui, Y.; Ando, M.

2014-12-01

We studied inter-plate slip history for about 100 years using earthquake catalogs. On assumption that each earthquake has stick-slip patch centered in its centroid, we regard cumulative seismic slips around the centroid as representing the inter-plate dislocation. We evaluated the slips on the stick-slip patches of over-M5-class earthquakes prior to three recent mega-thrust earthquakes, the 2004 Sumatra (Mw9.2), the 2010 Chile (Mw8.8), and the 2011 Tohoku (Mw9.0) around them. Comparing the cumulative seismic slips with the plate convergence, the slips before the mega-thrust events are significantly short in large area corresponding to the size of the mega-thrust events. We also researched cumulative seismic slips after other three mega-thrust earthquakes occurred in this 100 years, the 1952 Kamchatka (Mw9.0), the 1960 Chile (Mw9.5), the 1964 Alaska (Mw9.2). The cumulative slips have been significantly short in and around the focal area after their occurrence. The result should reflect persistency of the strong or/and large inter-plate coupled area capable of mega-thrust earthquakes. We applied the same procedure to global subduction zones to find that 21 regions including the focal area of above mega-thrust earthquakes show slip deficit over large area corresponding to the size of M9-class earthquakes. Considering that at least six M9-class earthquakes occurred in this 100 years and each recurrence interval should be 500-1000 years, it would not be surprised that from five to ten times of the already known regions (30 to 60 regions) are capable of M9 class earthquakes. The 21 regions as expected M9 class focal areas in our study is less than 5 to 10 times of the known 6, some of these regions may be divided into a few M9 class focal area because they extend to much larger area than typical M9 class focal area.

Effects of realistic topography on the ground motion of the Colombian Andes - A case study at the Aburrá Valley, Antioquia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Restrepo, Doriam; Bielak, Jacobo; Serrano, Ricardo; Gómez, Juan; Jaramillo, Juan

2016-03-01

This paper presents a set of deterministic 3-D ground motion simulations for the greater metropolitan area of Medellín in the Aburrá Valley, an earthquake-prone region of the Colombian Andes that exhibits moderate-to-strong topographic irregularities. We created the velocity model of the Aburrá Valley region (version 1) using the geological structures as a basis for determining the shear wave velocity. The irregular surficial topography is considered by means of a fictitious domain strategy. The simulations cover a 50 × 50 × 25 km3 volume, and four Mw = 5 rupture scenarios along a segment of the Romeral fault, a significant source of seismic activity in Colombia. In order to examine the sensitivity of ground motion to the irregular topography and the 3-D effects of the valley, each earthquake scenario was simulated with three different models: (i) realistic 3-D velocity structure plus realistic topography, (ii) realistic 3-D velocity structure without topography, and (iii) homogeneous half-space with realistic topography. Our results show how surface topography affects the ground response. In particular, our findings highlight the importance of the combined interaction between source-effects, source-directivity, focusing, soft-soil conditions, and 3-D topography. We provide quantitative evidence of this interaction and show that topographic amplification factors can be as high as 500 per cent at some locations. In other areas within the valley, the topographic effects result in relative reductions, but these lie in the 0-150 per cent range.

Experimental seismic behavior of a full-scale four-story soft-story wood-frame building with retrofits II: shake table test results

Treesearch

John W. van de Lindt; Pouria Bahmani; Gary Mochizuki; Steven E. Pryor; Mikhail Gershfeld; Jingjing Tian; Michael D. Symans; Douglas Rammer

2016-01-01

Soft-story wood-frame buildings have been recognized as a disaster preparedness problem for decades. The majority of these buildings were constructed from the 1920s to the 1960s and are prone to collapse during moderate to large earthquakes due to a characteristic deficiency in strength and stiffness in their first story. In order to propose and validate retrofit...

Role of Mass Media in the Disaster Preparedness and Sustainable Development of Society

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seid-Aliyeva, Dinara E.

2006-03-23

Better understanding of the causes and effects of large earthquakes can assists in mitigation of damage and loss of lives as a result of destructive natural events. Well-informed and educated population living in geological hazard-prone regions can reduce catastrophic consequences of natural disasters and guaranty the sustainable development of healthy society. A development of information service for disaster management is of importance in reduction of the disaster's consequences.

Seismicity around the source areas of the 1946 Nankai and the 1944 Tonankai earthquakes detected from data recorded at DONET stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, K.; Kamiya, S.; Takahashi, N.

2016-12-01

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) installed DONET (Dense Oceanfloor Network System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis) off the Kii Peninsula, southwest of Japan, to monitor earthquakes and tsunamis. Stations of DONET1, which are distributed in Kumano-nada, and DONET2, which are distributed off Muroto, were installed by August 2011 and April 2016, respectively. After the installation of all of the 51 stations, DONET was transferred to National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). NIED and JAMSTEC have now corroborated in the operation of DONET since April 2016. To investigate the seismicity around the source areas of the 1946 Nankai and the 1944 Tonankai earthquakes, we detected earthquakes from the records of the broadband seismometers installed to DONET. Because DONET stations are apart from land stations, we can detect smaller earthquakes than by using only land stations. It is important for understanding the stress state and seismogenic mechanism to monitoring the spatial-temporal seismicity change. In this study we purpose to evaluate to the seismicity around the source areas of the Nankai and the Tonankai earthquakes by using our earthquake catalogue. The frequency-magnitude relationships of earthquakes in the areas of DONET1&2 had an almost constant slope of about -1 for earthquakes of ML larger than 1.5 and 2.5, satisfying the Gutenberg-Richter law, and the slope of smaller earthquakes approached 0, reflecting the detection limits. While the most of the earthquakes occurred in the aftershock area of the 2004 off the Kii Peninsula earthquakes, very limited activity was detected in the source region of the Nankai and Tonankai earthquake except for the large earthquake (MJMA = 6.5) on 1st April 2016 and its aftershocks. We will evaluate the detection limit of the earthquake in more detail and investigate the spatial-temporal seismicity change with waiting the data store.

Analysis of post-earthquake landslide activity and geo-environmental effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Chenxiao; van Westen, Cees; Jetten, Victor

2014-05-01

Large earthquakes can cause huge losses to human society, due to ground shaking, fault rupture and due to the high density of co-seismic landslides that can be triggered in mountainous areas. In areas that have been affected by such large earthquakes, the threat of landslides continues also after the earthquake, as the co-seismic landslides may be reactivated by high intensity rainfall events. Earthquakes create Huge amount of landslide materials remain on the slopes, leading to a high frequency of landslides and debris flows after earthquakes which threaten lives and create great difficulties in post-seismic reconstruction in the earthquake-hit regions. Without critical information such as the frequency and magnitude of landslides after a major earthquake, reconstruction planning and hazard mitigation works appear to be difficult. The area hit by Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, Sichuan province, China, shows some typical examples of bad reconstruction planning due to lack of information: huge debris flows destroyed several re-constructed settlements. This research aim to analyze the decay in post-seismic landslide activity in areas that have been hit by a major earthquake. The areas hit by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake will be taken a study area. The study will analyze the factors that control post-earthquake landslide activity through the quantification of the landslide volume changes well as through numerical simulation of their initiation process, to obtain a better understanding of the potential threat of post-earthquake landslide as a basis for mitigation planning. The research will make use of high-resolution stereo satellite images, UAV and Terrestrial Laser Scanning(TLS) to obtain multi-temporal DEM to monitor the change of loose sediments and post-seismic landslide activities. A debris flow initiation model that incorporates the volume of source materials, vegetation re-growth, and intensity-duration of the triggering precipitation, and that evaluates different initiation mechanisms such as erosion and landslide reactivation will be developed. The developed initiation model will be integrated with run-out model to simulate the dynamic process of post-earthquake debris flows in the study area for a future period and make a prediction about the decay of landslide activity in future.

Understanding earthquake hazards in urban areas - Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyd, Oliver S.

2012-01-01

The region surrounding Evansville, Indiana, has experienced minor damage from earthquakes several times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and the proximity of Evansville to the Wabash Valley and New Madrid seismic zones, there is concern among nearby communities about hazards from earthquakes. Earthquakes currently cannot be predicted, but scientists can estimate how strongly the ground is likely to shake as a result of an earthquake and are able to design structures to withstand this estimated ground shaking. Earthquake-hazard maps provide one way of conveying such information and can help the region of Evansville prepare for future earthquakes and reduce earthquake-caused loss of life and financial and structural loss. The Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project (EAEHMP) has produced three types of hazard maps for the Evansville area: (1) probabilistic seismic-hazard maps show the ground motion that is expected to be exceeded with a given probability within a given period of time; (2) scenario ground-shaking maps show the expected shaking from two specific scenario earthquakes; (3) liquefaction-potential maps show how likely the strong ground shaking from the scenario earthquakes is to produce liquefaction. These maps complement the U.S. Geological Survey's National Seismic Hazard Maps but are more detailed regionally and take into account surficial geology, soil thickness, and soil stiffness; these elements greatly affect ground shaking.

Simulation of Sediment Transport Caused by Landslide at Nanhua Reservoir Watershed in Southern Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Ming-Hsi; Huang, Cong-Gi; Lin, Huan-Hsuan

2016-04-01

As a result of heavy rainfall, steep topography, young and weak geological formations, earthquakes, loose soils, slope land cultivation and other human disturbance, much area in Taiwan are prone to the occurrence of disastrous mass movements such as landslides and sediment disasters. During recent years, the extreme rainfall events brought huge amounts of rainfall and triggered severe changes in watershed environments. Typhoon Morakot in August 2009 caused severe landslides, debris flow, flooding and sediment disasters induced by record-break rainfall. The maximum rainfall of mountain area in Chiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung and Pingtung County were over 2,900 mm. The study area is located at Nanhua reservoir watershed in southern Taiwan. The numerical model (HEC-RAS 4.1 and FLO-2D) will be used to simulate the sediment transport caused by landslide and the study will find out the separating location of erosion and deposition in the river, the danger area of riverbank, and the safety of the river terrace village under the return period of 50-year, 100-year and 200-year (such as Typhoon Morakot). The results of this study can provide for the disaster risk management of administrative decisions to lessen the impacts of natural hazards and may also be useful for time-space variation of sediment disasters caused by Climate Change.

Threat of an earthquake right under the capital in Japan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rikitake, T.

1990-01-01

Tokyo, Japan's capital, has been enjoying a seismically quiet period following the 1923 Kanto earthquake of magnitude 7.9 that killed more than 140,000 people. Such a quiet period seems likely to be a repetition of the 80-year quiescence after the great 1703 Genroku earthquake of magntidue 8.2 that occurred in an epicentral area adjacent to that of the 1923 Kanto earthquake. In 1784, seismic activity immediately under the capital area revived with occasional occurrence of magnitude 6 to 7 shocks. Earthquakes of this class tended to occur more frequently as time went on and they eventually culminated in the 1923 Kanto earthquake. As more than 60 years have passed since the Kanto earthquake, we may well expect another revival of activity immediately under the capital area. 

Evidence for remotely triggered micro-earthquakes during salt cavern collapse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jousset, P.; Rohmer, J.

2012-04-01

Micro-seismicity is a good indicator of spatio-temporal evolution of physical properties of rocks prior to catastrophic events like volcanic eruptions or landslides and may be triggered by a number of causes including dynamic characteristics of processes in play or/and external forces. Micro-earthquake triggering has been in the recent years the subject of intense research and our work contribute to showing further evidence of possible triggering of micro-earthquakes by remote large earthquakes. We show evidence of triggered micro-seismicity in the vicinity of an underground salt cavern prone to collapse by a remote M~7.2 earthquake, which occurred ~12000 kilometres away. We demonstrate the near critical state of the cavern before the collapse by means of 2D axisymmetric elastic finite-element simulations. Pressure was lowered in the cavern by pumping operations of brine out of the cavern. We demonstrate that a very small stress increase would be sufficient to break the overburden. High-dynamic broadband records reveal a remarkable time-correlation between a dramatic increase of the local high-frequency micro-seismicity rate associated with the break of the stiffest layer stabilizing the overburden and the passage of low-frequency remote seismic waves, including body, Love and Rayleigh surface waves. Stress oscillations due to the seismic waves exceeded the strength required for the rupture of the complex media made of brine and rock triggering micro-earthquakes and leading to damage of the overburden and eventually collapse of the salt cavern. The increment of stress necessary for the failure of a Dolomite layer is of the same order or magnitude as the maximum dynamic stress magnitude observed during the passage of the earthquakes waves. On this basis, we discuss the possible contribution of the Love and Rayleigh low-frequency surfaces waves.

Monitoring of infrastructural sites by means of advanced multi-temporal DInSAR methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vollrath, Andreas; Zucca, Francesco; Stramondo, Salvatore

2013-10-01

With the launch of Sentinel-1, advanced interferometric measurements will become more applicable then ever. The foreseen standard Wide Area Product (WAP), with its higher spatial and temporal resolution than comparable SAR missions, will provide the basement for the use of new wide scale and multitemporal analysis. By now the use of SAR interferometry methods with respect to risk assessment are mainly conducted for active tectonic zones, plate boundaries, volcanoes as well as urban areas, where local surface movement rates exceed the expected error and enough pixels per area contain a relatively stable phase. This study, in contrast, aims to focus on infrastructural sites that are located outside cities and are therefore surrounded by rural landscapes. The stumbling bock was given by the communication letter by the European Commission with regard to the stress tests of nuclear power plants in Europe in 2012. It is mentioned that continuously re-evaluated risk and safety assessments are necessary to guarantee highest possible security to the European citizens and environment. This is also true for other infrastructural sites, that are prone to diverse geophysical hazards. In combination with GPS and broadband seismology, multitemporal Differential Interferometric SAR approaches demonstrated great potential in contributing valuable information to surface movement phenomenas. At this stage of the project, first results of the Stamps-MTI approach (combined PSInSAR and SBAS) will be presented for the industrial area around Priolo Gargallo in South East Sicily by using ENVISAT ASAR IM mode data from 2003-2010. This area is located between the Malta Escarpment fault system and the Hyblean plateau and is prone to earthquake and tsunami risk. It features a high density of oil refineries that are directly located at the coast. The general potential of these techniques with respect to the SENTINEL-1 mission will be shown for this area and a road-map for further improvements is given in order to overcome limitations that refer to the influence of the atmosphere, orbit or DEM errors. Further steps will also include validation and tectonic modeling for risk assessment.

Frequency Spectrum Method-Based Stress Analysis for Oil Pipelines in Earthquake Disaster Areas

PubMed Central

Wu, Xiaonan; Lu, Hongfang; Huang, Kun; Wu, Shijuan; Qiao, Weibiao

2015-01-01

When a long distance oil pipeline crosses an earthquake disaster area, inertial force and strong ground motion can cause the pipeline stress to exceed the failure limit, resulting in bending and deformation failure. To date, researchers have performed limited safety analyses of oil pipelines in earthquake disaster areas that include stress analysis. Therefore, using the spectrum method and theory of one-dimensional beam units, CAESAR II is used to perform a dynamic earthquake analysis for an oil pipeline in the XX earthquake disaster area. This software is used to determine if the displacement and stress of the pipeline meet the standards when subjected to a strong earthquake. After performing the numerical analysis, the primary seismic action axial, longitudinal and horizontal displacement directions and the critical section of the pipeline can be located. Feasible project enhancement suggestions based on the analysis results are proposed. The designer is able to utilize this stress analysis method to perform an ultimate design for an oil pipeline in earthquake disaster areas; therefore, improving the safe operation of the pipeline. PMID:25692790

Frequency spectrum method-based stress analysis for oil pipelines in earthquake disaster areas.

PubMed

Wu, Xiaonan; Lu, Hongfang; Huang, Kun; Wu, Shijuan; Qiao, Weibiao

2015-01-01

When a long distance oil pipeline crosses an earthquake disaster area, inertial force and strong ground motion can cause the pipeline stress to exceed the failure limit, resulting in bending and deformation failure. To date, researchers have performed limited safety analyses of oil pipelines in earthquake disaster areas that include stress analysis. Therefore, using the spectrum method and theory of one-dimensional beam units, CAESAR II is used to perform a dynamic earthquake analysis for an oil pipeline in the XX earthquake disaster area. This software is used to determine if the displacement and stress of the pipeline meet the standards when subjected to a strong earthquake. After performing the numerical analysis, the primary seismic action axial, longitudinal and horizontal displacement directions and the critical section of the pipeline can be located. Feasible project enhancement suggestions based on the analysis results are proposed. The designer is able to utilize this stress analysis method to perform an ultimate design for an oil pipeline in earthquake disaster areas; therefore, improving the safe operation of the pipeline.

Seismicity of the Earth 1900-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tarr, Arthur C.; Villaseñor, Antonio; Furlong, Kevin P.; Rhea, Susan; Benz, Harley M.

2010-01-01

This map illustrates more than one century of global seismicity in the context of global plate tectonics and the Earth's physiography. Primarily designed for use by earth scientists and engineers interested in earthquake hazards of the 20th and early 21st centuries, this map provides a comprehensive overview of strong earthquakes since 1900. The map clearly identifies the location of the 'great' earthquakes (M8.0 and larger) and the rupture area, if known, of the M8.3 or larger earthquakes. The earthquake symbols are scaled proportional to the moment magnitude and therefore to the area of faulting, thus providing a better understanding of the relative sizes and distribution of earthquakes in the magnitude range 5.5 to 9.5. Plotting the known rupture area of the largest earthquakes also provides a better appreciation of the extent of some of the most famous and damaging earthquakes in modern history. All earthquakes shown on the map were carefully relocated using a standard earth reference model and standardized location procedures, thereby eliminating gross errors and biases in locations of historically important earthquakes that are often found in numerous seismicity catalogs.

Topographic changes and their driving factors after 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, C.; Wang, M.; Xie, J.; Liu, K.

2017-12-01

The Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake caused topographic change in the stricken areas because of the formation of numerous coseismic landslides. The emergence of new landslides and debris flows and movement of loose materials under the driving force of heavy rainfall could further shape the local topography. Dynamic topographic changes in mountainous areas stricken by major earthquakes have a strong linkage to the development and occurrence of secondary disasters. However, little attention has been paid to continuously monitoring mountain environment change after such earthquakes. A digital elevation model (DEM) is the main feature of the terrain surface, in our research, we extracted DEM in 2013 and 2015 of a typical mountainous area severely impacted by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake from the ZY-3 stereo pair images with validation by field measurement. Combined with the elevation dataset in 2002 and 2010, we quantitatively assessed elevation changes in different years and qualitatively analyzed spatiotemporal variation of the terrain and mass movement across the study area. The results show that the earthquake stricken area experienced substantial elevation changes caused by seismic forces and subsequent rainfalls. Meanwhile, deposits after the earthquake are mainly accumulated on the river-channels and mountain ridges and deep gullies which increase the risk of other geo-hazards. And the heavy rainfalls after the earthquake have become the biggest driver of elevation reduction, which overwhelmed elevation increase during the major earthquake. Our study provided a better understanding of subsequent hazards and risks faced by residents and communities stricken by major earthquakes.

The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989: Earthquake Occurrence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coordinated by Bakun, William H.; Prescott, William H.

1993-01-01

Professional Paper 1550 seeks to understand the M6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake itself. It examines how the fault that generated the earthquake ruptured, searches for and evaluates precursors that may have indicated an earthquake was coming, reviews forecasts of the earthquake, and describes the geology of the earthquake area and the crustal forces that affect this geology. Some significant findings were: * Slip during the earthquake occurred on 35 km of fault at depths ranging from 7 to 20 km. Maximum slip was approximately 2.3 m. The earthquake may not have released all of the strain stored in rocks next to the fault and indicates a potential for another damaging earthquake in the Santa Cruz Mountains in the near future may still exist. * The earthquake involved a large amount of uplift on a dipping fault plane. Pre-earthquake conventional wisdom was that large earthquakes in the Bay area occurred as horizontal displacements on predominantly vertical faults. * The fault segment that ruptured approximately coincided with a fault segment identified in 1988 as having a 30% probability of generating a M7 earthquake in the next 30 years. This was one of more than 20 relevant earthquake forecasts made in the 83 years before the earthquake. * Calculations show that the Loma Prieta earthquake changed stresses on nearby faults in the Bay area. In particular, the earthquake reduced stresses on the Hayward Fault which decreased the frequency of small earthquakes on it. * Geological and geophysical mapping indicate that, although the San Andreas Fault can be mapped as a through going fault in the epicentral region, the southwest dipping Loma Prieta rupture surface is a separate fault strand and one of several along this part of the San Andreas that may be capable of generating earthquakes.

Facilitators and obstacles in pre-hospital medical response to earthquakes: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Djalali, Ahmadreza; Khankeh, Hamidreza; Öhlén, Gunnar; Castrén, Maaret; Kurland, Lisa

2011-05-16

Earthquakes are renowned as being amongst the most dangerous and destructive types of natural disasters. Iran, a developing country in Asia, is prone to earthquakes and is ranked as one of the most vulnerable countries in the world in this respect. The medical response in disasters is accompanied by managerial, logistic, technical, and medical challenges being also the case in the Bam earthquake in Iran. Our objective was to explore the medical response to the Bam earthquake with specific emphasis on pre-hospital medical management during the first days. The study was performed in 2008; an interview based qualitative study using content analysis. We conducted nineteen interviews with experts and managers responsible for responding to the Bam earthquake, including pre-hospital emergency medical services, the Red Crescent, and Universities of Medical Sciences. The selection of participants was determined by using a purposeful sampling method. Sample size was given by data saturation. The pre-hospital medical service was divided into three categories; triage, emergency medical care and transportation, each category in turn was identified into facilitators and obstacles. The obstacles identified were absence of a structured disaster plan, absence of standardized medical teams, and shortage of resources. The army and skilled medical volunteers were identified as facilitators. The most compelling, and at the same time amenable obstacle, was the lack of a disaster management plan. It was evident that implementing a comprehensive plan would not only save lives but decrease suffering and enable an effective praxis of the available resources at pre-hospital and hospital levels.

Facilitators and obstacles in pre-hospital medical response to earthquakes: a qualitative study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Earthquakes are renowned as being amongst the most dangerous and destructive types of natural disasters. Iran, a developing country in Asia, is prone to earthquakes and is ranked as one of the most vulnerable countries in the world in this respect. The medical response in disasters is accompanied by managerial, logistic, technical, and medical challenges being also the case in the Bam earthquake in Iran. Our objective was to explore the medical response to the Bam earthquake with specific emphasis on pre-hospital medical management during the first days. Methods The study was performed in 2008; an interview based qualitative study using content analysis. We conducted nineteen interviews with experts and managers responsible for responding to the Bam earthquake, including pre-hospital emergency medical services, the Red Crescent, and Universities of Medical Sciences. The selection of participants was determined by using a purposeful sampling method. Sample size was given by data saturation. Results The pre-hospital medical service was divided into three categories; triage, emergency medical care and transportation, each category in turn was identified into facilitators and obstacles. The obstacles identified were absence of a structured disaster plan, absence of standardized medical teams, and shortage of resources. The army and skilled medical volunteers were identified as facilitators. Conclusions The most compelling, and at the same time amenable obstacle, was the lack of a disaster management plan. It was evident that implementing a comprehensive plan would not only save lives but decrease suffering and enable an effective praxis of the available resources at pre-hospital and hospital levels. PMID:21575233

Discussion of New Approaches to Medium-Short-Term Earthquake Forecast in Practice of The Earthquake Prediction in Yunnan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, F.

2017-12-01

After retrospection of years of practice of the earthquake prediction in Yunnan area, it is widely considered that the fixed-point earthquake precursory anomalies mainly reflect the field information. The increase of amplitude and number of precursory anomalies could help to determine the original time of earthquakes, however it is difficult to obtain the spatial relevance between earthquakes and precursory anomalies, thus we can hardly predict the spatial locations of earthquakes using precursory anomalies. The past practices have shown that the seismic activities are superior to the precursory anomalies in predicting earthquakes locations, resulting from the increased seismicity were observed before 80% M=6.0 earthquakes in Yunnan area. While the mobile geomagnetic anomalies are turned out to be helpful in predicting earthquakes locations in recent year, for instance, the forecasted earthquakes occurring time and area derived form the 1-year-scale geomagnetic anomalies before the M6.5 Ludian earthquake in 2014 are shorter and smaller than which derived from the seismicity enhancement region. According to the past works, the author believes that the medium-short-term earthquake forecast level, as well as objective understanding of the seismogenic mechanisms, could be substantially improved by the densely laying observation array and capturing the dynamic process of physical property changes in the enhancement region of medium to small earthquakes.

Source parameters of microearthquakes on an interplate asperity off Kamaishi, NE Japan over two earthquake cycles

USGS Publications Warehouse

Uchida, Naoki; Matsuzawa, Toru; Ellsworth, William L.; Imanishi, Kazutoshi; Shimamura, Kouhei; Hasegawa, Akira

2012-01-01

We have estimated the source parameters of interplate earthquakes in an earthquake cluster off Kamaishi, NE Japan over two cycles of M~ 4.9 repeating earthquakes. The M~ 4.9 earthquake sequence is composed of nine events that occurred since 1957 which have a strong periodicity (5.5 ± 0.7 yr) and constant size (M4.9 ± 0.2), probably due to stable sliding around the source area (asperity). Using P- and S-wave traveltime differentials estimated from waveform cross-spectra, three M~ 4.9 main shocks and 50 accompanying microearthquakes (M1.5–3.6) from 1995 to 2008 were precisely relocated. The source sizes, stress drops and slip amounts for earthquakes of M2.4 or larger were also estimated from corner frequencies and seismic moments using simultaneous inversion of stacked spectral ratios. Relocation using the double-difference method shows that the slip area of the 2008 M~ 4.9 main shock is co-located with those of the 1995 and 2001 M~ 4.9 main shocks. Four groups of microearthquake clusters are located in and around the mainshock slip areas. Of these, two clusters are located at the deeper and shallower edge of the slip areas and most of these microearthquakes occurred repeatedly in the interseismic period. Two other clusters located near the centre of the mainshock source areas are not as active as the clusters near the edge. The occurrence of these earthquakes is limited to the latter half of the earthquake cycles of the M~ 4.9 main shock. Similar spatial and temporal features of microearthquake occurrence were seen for two other cycles before the 1995 M5.0 and 1990 M5.0 main shocks based on group identification by waveform similarities. Stress drops of microearthquakes are 3–11 MPa and are relatively constant within each group during the two earthquake cycles. The 2001 and 2008 M~ 4.9 earthquakes have larger stress drops of 41 and 27 MPa, respectively. These results show that the stress drop is probably determined by the fault properties and does not change much for earthquakes rupturing in the same area. The occurrence of microearthquakes in the interseismic period suggests the intrusion of aseismic slip, causing a loading of these patches. We also found that some earthquakes near the centre of the mainshock source area occurred just after the earthquakes at the deeper edge of the mainshock source area. These seismic activities probably indicate episodic aseismic slip migrating from the deeper regions in the mainshock asperity to its centre during interseismic periods. Comparison of the source parameters for the 2001 and 2008 main shocks shows that the seismic moments (1.04 x 1016 Nm and 1.12 x 1016 Nm for the 2008 and 2001 earthquakes, respectively) and source sizes (radius = 570 m and 540 m for the 2008 and 2001 earthquakes, respectively) are comparable. Based on careful phase identification and hypocentre relocation by constraining the hypocentres of other small earthquakes to their precisely located centroids, we found that the hypocentres of the 2001 and 2008 M~ 4.9 events are located in the southeastern part of the mainshock source area. This location does not correspond to either episodic slip area or hypocentres of small earthquakes that occurred during the earthquake cycle.

Hotspots, Lifelines, and the Safrr Haywired Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratliff, J. L.; Porter, K.

2014-12-01

Though California has experienced many large earthquakes (San Francisco, 1906; Loma Prieta, 1989; Northridge, 1994), the San Francisco Bay Area has not had a damaging earthquake for 25 years. Earthquake risk and surging reliance on smartphones and the Internet to handle everyday tasks raise the question: is an increasingly technology-reliant Bay Area prepared for potential infrastructure impacts caused by a major earthquake? How will a major earthquake on the Hayward Fault affect lifelines (roads, power, water, communication, etc.)? The U.S. Geological Survey Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) program's Haywired disaster scenario, a hypothetical two-year earthquake sequence triggered by a M7.05 mainshock on the Hayward Fault, addresses these and other questions. We explore four geographic aspects of lifeline damage from earthquakes: (1) geographic lifeline concentrations, (2) areas where lifelines pass through high shaking or potential ground-failure zones, (3) areas with diminished lifeline service demand due to severe building damage, and (4) areas with increased lifeline service demand due to displaced residents and businesses. Potential mainshock lifeline vulnerability and spatial demand changes will be discerned by superimposing earthquake shaking, liquefaction probability, and landslide probability damage thresholds with lifeline concentrations and with large-capacity shelters. Intersecting high hazard levels and lifeline clusters represent potential lifeline susceptibility hotspots. We will also analyze possible temporal vulnerability and demand changes using an aftershock shaking threshold. The results of this analysis will inform regional lifeline resilience initiatives and response and recovery planning, as well as reveal potential redundancies and weaknesses for Bay Area lifelines. Identified spatial and temporal hotspots can provide stakeholders with a reference for possible systemic vulnerability resulting from an earthquake sequence.

Seismic hazard and seismic risk assessment based on the unified scaling law for earthquakes: Himalayas and adjacent regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nekrasova, A. K.; Kossobokov, V. G.; Parvez, I. A.

2015-03-01

For the Himalayas and neighboring regions, the maps of seismic hazard and seismic risk are constructed with the use of the estimates for the parameters of the unified scaling law for earthquakes (USLE), in which the Gutenberg-Richter law for magnitude distribution of seismic events within a given area is applied in the modified version with allowance for linear dimensions of the area, namely, log N( M, L) = A + B (5 - M) + C log L, where N( M, L) is the expected annual number of the earthquakes with magnitude M in the area with linear dimension L. The spatial variations in the parameters A, B, and C for the Himalayas and adjacent regions are studied on two time intervals from 1965 to 2011 and from 1980 to 2011. The difference in A, B, and C between these two time intervals indicates that seismic activity experiences significant variations on a scale of a few decades. With a global consideration of the seismic belts of the Earth overall, the estimates of coefficient A, which determines the logarithm of the annual average frequency of the earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.0 and higher in the zone with a linear dimension of 1 degree of the Earth's meridian, differ by a factor of 30 and more and mainly fall in the interval from -1.1 to 0.5. The values of coefficient B, which describes the balance between the number of earthquakes with different magnitudes, gravitate to 0.9 and range from less than 0.6 to 1.1 and higher. The values of coefficient C, which estimates the fractal dimension of the local distribution of epicenters, vary from 0.5 to 1.4 and higher. In the Himalayas and neighboring regions, the USLE coefficients mainly fall in the intervals of -1.1 to 0.3 for A, 0.8 to 1.3 for B, and 1.0 to 1.4 for C. The calculations of the local value of the expected peak ground acceleration (PGA) from the maximal expected magnitude provided the necessary basis for mapping the seismic hazards in the studied region. When doing this, we used the local estimates of the magnitudes which, according to USLE, corresponded to the probability of exceedance 1% and 10% during 50 years or, if the reliable estimate is absent, the maximal magnitudes reported during the instrumental period. As a result, the seismic hazard maps for the Himalayas and the adjacent regions in terms of standard seismic zoning were constructed. Based on these calculations, in order to exemplify the method, we present a series of seismic risk maps taking into account the population density prone to seismic hazard and the dependence of the risk on the vulnerability as a function of population density.

SEISMICITY OF THE LASSEN PEAK AREA, CALIFORNIA: 1981-1983.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walter, Stephen R.; Rojas, Vernonica; Kollmann, Auriel

1984-01-01

Over 700 earthquakes occurred in the vicinity of Lassen Peak, California, from February 1981 through December 1983. These earthquakes define a broad, northwest-trending seismic zone that extends from the Sierra Nevada through the Lassen Peak area and either terminates or is offset to the northeast about 20 kilometers northwest of Lassen Peak. Approximately 25% of these earthquakes are associated with the geothermal system south of Lassen Peak. Earthquakes in the geothermal area generally occur at depths shallower than 6 kilometers.

Earthquake Risk Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, N.; Sakai, S.; Kasahara, K.; Nakagawa, S.; Nanjo, K.; Panayotopoulos, Y.; Tsuruoka, H.

2010-12-01

Seismic disaster risk mitigation in urban areas constitutes a challenge through collaboration of scientific, engineering, and social-science fields. Examples of collaborative efforts include research on detailed plate structure with identification of all significant faults, developing dense seismic networks; strong ground motion prediction, which uses information on near-surface seismic site effects and fault models; earthquake resistant and proof structures; and cross-discipline infrastructure for effective risk mitigation just after catastrophic events. Risk mitigation strategy for the next greater earthquake caused by the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducting beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area is of major concern because it caused past mega-thrust earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (magnitude M8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M7.9) which had 105,000 fatalities. A M7 or greater (M7+) earthquake in this area at present has high potential to produce devastating loss of life and property with even greater global economic repercussions. The Central Disaster Management Council of Japan estimates that the M7+ earthquake will cause 11,000 fatalities and 112 trillion yen (about 1 trillion US$) economic loss. This earthquake is evaluated to occur with a probability of 70% in 30 years by the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan. In order to mitigate disaster for greater Tokyo, the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (2007-2011) was launched in collaboration with scientists, engineers, and social-scientists in nationwide institutions. The results that are obtained in the respective fields will be integrated until project termination to improve information on the strategy assessment for seismic risk mitigation in the Tokyo metropolitan area. In this talk, we give an outline of our project as an example of collaborative research on earthquake risk mitigation. Discussion is extended to our effort in progress and scientific results obtained so far at the Earthquake Research Institute (ERI). ERI hosts the scientific part focusing on characterization of the plate structure and source faults in and around the Tokyo metropolitan area. One of the topics is ongoing deployment of seismic stations that constitute the Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net). We have deployed 226 stations with a 2-5 km interval in space. Based on seismic data obtained from the MeSO-net, we aim to reveal the detailed geometry of the subducting PSP.

BAREPP: Earthquake preparedness for the San Francisco Bay area

USGS Publications Warehouse

1986-01-01

The threat of major and damaging earthquakes in California is a fact. How people respond to that threat is a concern shared by many local, state, federal, volunteer and private sector organizations. The Bay Area Regional Earthquake Preparedness Project (BAREPP) promotes comprehensive earthquake preparedness actions by these organizations and provides technical and planning assistance for a variety of programs.

Fast Computation of Ground Motion Shaking Map base on the Modified Stochastic Finite Fault Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, W.; Zhong, Q.; Shi, B.

2012-12-01

Rapidly regional MMI mapping soon after a moderate-large earthquake is crucial to loss estimation, emergency services and planning of emergency action by the government. In fact, many countries show different degrees of attention on the technology of rapid estimation of MMI , and this technology has made significant progress in earthquake-prone countries. In recent years, numerical modeling of strong ground motion has been well developed with the advances of computation technology and earthquake science. The computational simulation of strong ground motion caused by earthquake faulting has become an efficient way to estimate the regional MMI distribution soon after earthquake. In China, due to the lack of strong motion observation in network sparse or even completely missing areas, the development of strong ground motion simulation method has become an important means of quantitative estimation of strong motion intensity. In many of the simulation models, stochastic finite fault model is preferred to rapid MMI estimating for its time-effectiveness and accuracy. In finite fault model, a large fault is divided into N subfaults, and each subfault is considered as a small point source. The ground motions contributed by each subfault are calculated by the stochastic point source method which is developed by Boore, and then summed at the observation point to obtain the ground motion from the entire fault with a proper time delay. Further, Motazedian and Atkinson proposed the concept of Dynamic Corner Frequency, with the new approach, the total radiated energy from the fault and the total seismic moment are conserved independent of subfault size over a wide range of subfault sizes. In current study, the program EXSIM developed by Motazedian and Atkinson has been modified for local or regional computations of strong motion parameters such as PGA, PGV and PGD, which are essential for MMI estimating. To make the results more reasonable, we consider the impact of V30 for the ground shaking intensity, and the results of the comparisons between the simulated and observed MMI for the 2004 Mw 6.0 Parkfield earthquake, the 2008 Mw 7.9Wenchuan earthquake and the 1976 Mw 7.6Tangshan earthquake is fairly well. Take Parkfield earthquake as example, the simulative result reflect the directivity effect and the influence of the shallow velocity structure well. On the other hand, the simulative data is in good agreement with the network data and NGA (Next Generation Attenuation). The consumed time depends on the number of the subfaults and the number of the grid point. For the 2004 Mw 6.0 Parkfield earthquake, the grid size we calculated is 2.5° × 2.5°, the grid space is 0.025°, and the total time consumed is about 1.3hours. For the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake, the grid size calculated is 10° × 10°, the grid space is 0.05°, the total number of grid point is more than 40,000, and the total time consumed is about 7.5 hours. For t the 1976 Mw 7.6 Tangshan earthquake, the grid size we calculated is 4° × 6°, the grid space is 0.05°, and the total time consumed is about 2.1 hours. The CPU we used is 3.40GHz, and such computational time could further reduce by using GPU computing technique and other parallel computing technique. This is also our next focus.

Analysis of Earthquake Source Spectra in Salton Trough

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Shearer, P. M.

2009-12-01

Previous studies of the source spectra of small earthquakes in southern California show that average Brune-type stress drops vary among different regions, with particularly low stress drops observed in the Salton Trough (Shearer et al., 2006). The Salton Trough marks the southern end of the San Andreas Fault and is prone to earthquake swarms, some of which are driven by aseismic creep events (Lohman and McGuire, 2007). In order to learn the stress state and understand the physical mechanisms of swarms and slow slip events, we analyze the source spectra of earthquakes in this region. We obtain Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) waveforms for earthquakes from 1977 to 2009 archived at the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) data center, which includes over 17,000 events. After resampling the data to a uniform 100 Hz sample rate, we compute spectra for both signal and noise windows for each seismogram, and select traces with a P-wave signal-to-noise ratio greater than 5 between 5 Hz and 15 Hz. Using selected displacement spectra, we isolate the source spectra from station terms and path effects using an empirical Green’s function approach. From the corrected source spectra, we compute corner frequencies and estimate moments and stress drops. Finally we analyze spatial and temporal variations in stress drop in the Salton Trough and compare them with studies of swarms and creep events to assess the evolution of faulting and stress in the region. References: Lohman, R. B., and J. J. McGuire (2007), Earthquake swarms driven by aseismic creep in the Salton Trough, California, J. Geophys. Res., 112, B04405, doi:10.1029/2006JB004596 Shearer, P. M., G. A. Prieto, and E. Hauksson (2006), Comprehensive analysis of earthquake source spectra in southern California, J. Geophys. Res., 111, B06303, doi:10.1029/2005JB003979.

Investigating the rupture direction of induced earthquakes in the Central US using empirical Green's functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lui, S. K. Y.; Huang, Y.

2017-12-01

A clear understanding of the source physics of induced seismicity is the key to effective seismic hazard mitigation. In particular, resolving their rupture processes can shed lights on the stress state prior to the main shock, as well as ground motion response. Recent numerical models suggest that, compared to their tectonic counterpart, induced earthquake rupture is more prone to propagate unilaterally toward the injection well where fluid pressure is high. However, this is also dependent on the location of the injection relative to the fault and yet to be compared with field data. In this study, we utilize the rich pool of seismic data in the central US to constrain the rupture processes of major induced earthquakes. By implementing a forward-modeling method, we take smaller earthquake recordings as empirical Green's functions (eGf) to simulate the rupture direction of the beginning motion generated by large events. One advantage of the empirical approach is to bypass the fundamental difficulty in resolving path and site effects. We selected eGf events that are close to the target events both in space and time. For example, we use a Mw 3.6 aftershock approximately 3 km from the 2011 Mw 5.7 earthquake in Prague, OK as its eGf event. Preliminary results indicate a southwest rupture for the Prague main shock, which possibly implies a higher fluid pressure concentration on the northeast end of the fault prior to the rupture. We will present further results on other Mw > 4.5 earthquakes in the States of Oklahoma and Kansas. With additional seismic stations installed in the past few years, events such as the 2014 Mw 4.9 Milan earthquake and the 2016 Mw 5.8 Pawnee earthquake are potential candidates with useful eGfs, as they both have good data coverage and a substantial number of aftershocks nearby. We will discuss the implication of our findings for the causative relationships between the injection operations and the induced rupture process.

Undergraduate nursing students' perceptions about disaster preparedness and response in Istanbul, Turkey, and Miyazaki, Japan: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Öztekin, Seher Deniz; Larson, Eric Edwin; Yüksel, Serpil; Altun Uğraş, Gülay

2015-04-01

Although the awareness of disasters has increased among nurses, the concept of disaster preparedness and response has not been sufficiently explored with undergraduate nursing students. The aim of this study was to assess and compare the perceptions of students regarding disaster preparedness and response that live in different earthquake-prone cities; Istanbul, Turkey and Miyazaki, Japan. A cross-sectional study employing seven questions was conducted in a final group of 1053 nursing students from Istanbul, Turkey, and Miyazaki, Japan. Most study respondents were female, aged 18-22 years, with a high proportion of second year students in both cities. Istanbul's students had more knowledge about disaster preparedness and response in relation to age and year of university, showing statistically significant differences. Istanbul's highest rated responses to disaster characteristics were on structural elements and injuries/deaths, while Miyazaki's was "unpredictable/sudden/disorganized". Respondents in Istanbul identified earthquakes as the disaster most likely to occur, while respondents in Miyazaki identified typhoon/hurricane. Study participants responded that they could provide caregiver roles during a disaster event rather than triage or managerial roles as disaster responders. Disaster characteristics were not described by one third of the students. Of the two-thirds that were described, most were of events that were highly predictable because of their frequencies in the given areas. Universities need to target and then focus on high-risk factors in their areas and have disaster plans for students who can provide triage and managerial nursing roles as disaster responders. © 2014 The Authors. Japan Journal of Nursing Science © 2014 Japan Academy of Nursing Science.

An Approach toward an Asia-Pacific Strategy 2012 to 2020

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-01

trigger tsunamis. Located on the western edge of the “ Ring of Fire,” the heart of the Asia-Pacific region is highly prone to unstable geologic...author plotted 7,029 earthquakes that occurred during these 30 days, each with a magnitude greater than 2.5 on the Richter scale. The Ring of Fire...2013, https://www.cia .gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bt.html. 25. Indrani Bagehi, “China’s Coziness with Bhutan Rings Security

Seismic Stability Evaluation of Alben Barkley Dam and Lake Project. Volume 2. Geological and Seismological Evaluation.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-06-01

30 APPENDIX A: EARTHQUAKES AND GEOLOGY OF THE BARKLEY DAM AREA IN RELATION TO THE NEW MADRID EARTHQUAKE REGION TO...Dam is about 115 km from the source area of the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-1812. Four major earthquakes are deduced to have occurred (Street and...hundreds of aftershocks, a dozen of which were felt over much of the central United States. Other major earthquakes that have happened in the New Madrid

Disasters and development: Part 2: understanding and exploiting disaster-development linkages.

PubMed

Stephenson, Rob S; DuFrane, Charles

2002-01-01

Disasters can impede the effectiveness of development resource allocation. The damage sustained from an event can be classified into four categories: (1) Loss of resources; (2) Interruption of programs and switching of crucial resources to other, shorter-term needs; (3) Negative impacts upon investment climates; and/or (4) Disruption of the non-formal sector (local businesses). Disasters have a particularly destructive economic impact in areas in which there are few alternatives for assets that are destroyed or in areas in which the resources already are at critical levels. Development processes can both increase and/or decrease the vulnerability of a society to hazards. There are dearly established linkages between poverty, marginalization, over-population, and vulnerability. To a large extent, vulnerability derives from poverty. The poor are more likely to live in vulnerable areas (slopes prone to landslides, flood plains, marginal agricultural land), have difficulty accessing education and information, have fewer assets to invest in resources to reduce vulnerability, and are more prone to become malnourished and have chronic illnesses that predispose them to injury and death. Development may be associated with the production of new hazards accepted by a society because the perceived benefits of the development project far exceed the relative risk associated with the project. Therefore, risk assessments must be part of any program planning and evaluation. Training and education are of critical importance in preventing increased vulnerability as a result of development strategies. Development also can progress in a manner that will result in mitigation of the impacts of an event on a given society (increase absorbing capacity and/or buffering capacity, elimination of hazards or the risk of them producing a disaster). Such mitigation measures can be either structural or nonstructural. There exists a wide range of options for incorporating mitigation measures in development projects. Two case studies provide exercises that incorporate the concepts provided in this discussion: (1) The 1985 earthquake in Mexico City; and (2) Agricultural development in northern Sudan.

Strain-Based Design Methodology of Large Diameter Grade X80 Linepipe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lower, Mark D.

2014-04-01

Continuous growth in energy demand is driving oil and natural gas production to areas that are often located far from major markets where the terrain is prone to earthquakes, landslides, and other types of ground motion. Transmission pipelines that cross this type of terrain can experience large longitudinal strains and plastic circumferential elongation as the pipeline experiences alignment changes resulting from differential ground movement. Such displacements can potentially impact pipeline safety by adversely affecting structural capacity and leak tight integrity of the linepipe steel. Planning for new long-distance transmission pipelines usually involves consideration of higher strength linepipe steels because theirmore » use allows pipeline operators to reduce the overall cost of pipeline construction and increase pipeline throughput by increasing the operating pressure. The design trend for new pipelines in areas prone to ground movement has evolved over the last 10 years from a stress-based design approach to a strain-based design (SBD) approach to further realize the cost benefits from using higher strength linepipe steels. This report presents an overview of SBD for pipelines subjected to large longitudinal strain and high internal pressure with emphasis on the tensile strain capacity of high-strength microalloyed linepipe steel. The technical basis for this report involved engineering analysis and examination of the mechanical behavior of Grade X80 linepipe steel in both the longitudinal and circumferential directions. Testing was conducted to assess effects on material processing including as-rolled, expanded, and heat treatment processing intended to simulate coating application. Elastic-plastic and low-cycle fatigue analyses were also performed with varying internal pressures. Proposed SBD models discussed in this report are based on classical plasticity theory and account for material anisotropy, triaxial strain, and microstructural damage effects developed from test data. The results are intended to enhance SBD and analysis methods for producing safe and cost effective pipelines capable of accommodating large plastic strains in seismically active arctic areas.« less

44 CFR 60.22 - Planning considerations for flood-prone areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... community shall consider— (1) Preservation of the flood-prone areas for open space purposes; (2) Relocation... debris, to provide an added margin of safety against floods having a magnitude greater than the base...

44 CFR 60.22 - Planning considerations for flood-prone areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... community shall consider— (1) Preservation of the flood-prone areas for open space purposes; (2) Relocation... debris, to provide an added margin of safety against floods having a magnitude greater than the base...

44 CFR 60.22 - Planning considerations for flood-prone areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... community shall consider— (1) Preservation of the flood-prone areas for open space purposes; (2) Relocation... debris, to provide an added margin of safety against floods having a magnitude greater than the base...

Tsunami potential assessment based on rupture zones, focal mechanisms and repeat times of strong earthquakes in the major Atlantic-Mediterranean seismic fracture zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agalos, Apostolos; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Kijko, Andrzej; Papageorgiou, Antonia; Smit, Ansie; Triantafyllou, Ioanna

2016-04-01

In the major Atlantic-Mediterranean seismic fracture zone, extended from Azores islands in the west to the easternmost Mediterranean Sea in the east, including the Marmara and Black Seas, a number of 22 tsunamigenic zones have been determined from historical and instrumental tsunami documentation. Although some tsunamis were produced by volcanic activity or landslides, the majority of them was generated by strong earthquakes. Since the generation of seismic tsunamis depends on several factors, like the earthquake size, focal depth and focal mechanism, the study of such parameters is of particular importance for the assessment of the potential for the generation of future tsunamis. However, one may not rule out the possibility for tsunami generation in areas outside of the 22 zones determined so far. For the Atlantic-Mediterranean seismic fracture zone we have compiled a catalogue of strong, potentially tsunamigenic (focal depth less than 100 km) historical earthquakes from various data bases and other sources. The lateral areas of rupture zones of these earthquakes were determined. Rupture zone is the area where the strain after the earthquake has dropped substantially with respect the strain before the earthquake. Aftershock areas were assumed to determine areas of rupture zones for instrumental earthquakes. For historical earthquakes macroseismic criteria were used such as spots of higher-degree seismic intensity and of important ground failures. For the period of instrumental seismicity, focal mechanism solutions from CMT, EMMA and other data bases were selected for strong earthquakes. From the geographical distribution of seismic rupture zones and the corresponding focal mechanisms in the entire Atlantic-Mediterranean seismic fracture zone we determined potentially tsunamigenic zones regardless they are known to have produced seismic tsunamis in the past or not. An attempt has been made to calculate in each one of such zones the repeat times of strong earthquakes from earthquake catalogue data sets.

Why people do what they do to protect against earthquake risk: perceptions of hazard adjustment attributes.

PubMed

Lindell, Michael K; Arlikatti, Sudha; Prater, Carla S

2009-08-01

This study examined respondents' self-reported adoption of 16 hazard adjustments (preimpact actions to reduce danger to persons and property), their perceptions of those adjustments' attributes, and the correlations of those perceived attributes with respondents' demographic characteristics. The sample comprised 561 randomly selected residents from three cities in Southern California prone to high seismic risk and three cities from Western Washington prone to moderate seismic risks. The results show that the hazard adjustment perceptions were defined by hazard-related attributes and resource-related attributes. More significantly, the respondents had a significant degree of consensus in their ratings of those attributes and used them to differentiate among the hazard adjustments, as indicated by statistically significant differences among the hazard adjustment profiles. Finally, there were many significant correlations between respondents' demographic characteristics and the perceived characteristics of hazard adjustments, but there were few consistent patterns among these correlations.

Reevaluation of the Seismicity and seismic hazards of Northeastern Libya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben Suleman, abdunnur; Aousetta, Fawzi

2014-05-01

Libya, located at the northern margin of the African continent, underwent many episodes of orogenic activities. These episodes of orogenic activities affected and shaped the geological setting of the country. This study represents a detailed investigation that aims to focus on the seismicity and its implications on earthquake hazards of Northeastern Libya. At the end of year 2005 the Libyan National Seismological Network starts functioning with 15 stations. The Seismicity of the area under investigation was reevaluated using data recorded by the recently established network. The Al-Maraj earthquake occurred in May 22nd 2005was analyzed. This earthquake was located in a known seismically active area. This area was the sight of the well known 1963 earthquake that kills over 200 people. Earthquakes were plotted and resulting maps were interpreted and discussed. The level of seismic activity is higher in some areas, such as the city of Al-Maraj. The offshore areas north of Al-Maraj seem to have higher seismic activity. It is highly recommended that the recent earthquake activity is considered in the seismic hazard assessments for the northeastern part of Libya.

From tsunami hazard assessment to risk management in Guadeloupe (F.W.I.)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahibo, Narcisse; Dudon, Bernard; Krien, Yann; Arnaud, Gaël; Mercado, Aurelio; Roger, Jean

2017-04-01

The Caribbean region is prone to numerous natural hazards such as earthquakes, landslides, storm surges, tsunamis, coastal erosion or hurricanes. All these threats may cause great human and economic losses and are thus of prime interest for applied research. One of the main challenges for the scientific community is to conduct state-of-the-art research to assess hazards and share the results with coastal planners and decision makers so that they can regulate land use and develop mitigation strategies. We present here the results of a scientific collaborative project between Guadeloupe and Porto Rico which aimed at bringing a decision-making support to the authorities regarding tsunami hazards. This project led us to build a database of potential extreme events, and to study their impacts on Guadeloupe to investigate storm surge and tsunami hazards. The results were used by local authorities to develop safeguarding and mitigation measures in coastal areas. This project is thus a good example to demonstrate the benefit of inter Caribbean scientific collaboration for natural risks management.

Extraordinary distance limits of landslides triggered by the 2011 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jibson, Randall W.; Harp, Edwin L.

2012-01-01

The 23 August 2011 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake (Mw 5.8) was the largest to strike the eastern U.S. since 1897 and was felt over an extraordinarily large area. Although no large landslides occurred, the shaking did trigger many rock and soil falls from steep river banks and natural cliffs in the epicentral area and from steep road cuts along, and northwest of, the Blue Ridge Parkway. We mapped the occurrence of rock falls to determine distance limits that could be compared with those from other documented earthquakes. Studies of previous earthquakes indicated a maximum epicentral distance limit for landsliding of ~60  km for an M 5.8 earthquake; the maximum distance limit for the 2011 earthquake was 245 km, the largest exceedance of the historical limit ever recorded. Likewise, the previous maximum area affected by landslides for this magnitude was 1500  km2; the area affected by landslides in the 2011 earthquake was 33,400  km2. These observations provide physical evidence that attenuation of strong shaking for eastern U.S. earthquakes is significantly lower than for plate‐boundary earthquakes. Also, distance limits parallel to the regional structural trend are greater than those that transect the structure, which suggests anisotropic attenuation related to the regional geologic structure. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) at the landslide distance limits is estimated to have been about 0.02–0.04g.

Seismicity in the source areas of the 1896 and 1933 Sanriku earthquakes and implications for large near-trench earthquake faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obana, Koichiro; Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Fujie, Gou; Kodaira, Shuichi; Kaiho, Yuka; Yamamoto, Yojiro; Miura, Seiichi

2018-03-01

In the northern part of the Japan Trench, the 1933 Showa-Sanriku earthquake (Mw 8.4), an outer-trench, normal-faulting earthquake, occurred 37 yr after the 1896 Meiji-Sanriku tsunami earthquake (Mw 8.0), a shallow, near-trench, plate-interface rupture. Tsunamis generated by both earthquakes caused severe damage along the Sanriku coast. Precise locations of earthquakes in the source areas of the 1896 and 1933 earthquakes have not previously been obtained because they occurred at considerable distances from the coast in deep water beyond the maximum operational depth of conventional ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs). In 2015, we incorporated OBSs designed for operation in deep water (ultradeep OBSs) in an OBS array during two months of seismic observations in the source areas of the 1896 and 1933 Sanriku earthquakes to investigate the relationship of seismicity there to outer-rise normal-faulting earthquakes and near-trench tsunami earthquakes. Our analysis showed that seismicity during our observation period occurred along three roughly linear trench-parallel trends in the outer-trench region. Seismic activity along these trends likely corresponds to aftershocks of the 1933 Showa-Sanriku earthquake and the Mw 7.4 normal-faulting earthquake that occurred 40 min after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Furthermore, changes of the clarity of reflections from the oceanic Moho on seismic reflection profiles and low-velocity anomalies within the oceanic mantle were observed near the linear trends of the seismicity. The focal mechanisms we determined indicate that an extensional stress regime extends to about 40 km depth, below which the stress regime is compressional. These observations suggest that rupture during the 1933 Showa-Sanriku earthquake did not extend to the base of the oceanic lithosphere and that compound rupture of multiple or segmented faults is a more plausible explanation for that earthquake. The source area of the 1896 Meiji-Sanriku tsunami earthquake is characterized by an aseismic region landward of the trench axis. Spatial heterogeneity of seismicity and crustal structure might indicate the near-trench faults that could lead to future hazardous events such as the 1896 and 1933 Sanriku earthquakes, and should be taken into account in assessment of tsunami hazards related to large near-trench earthquakes.

Evaluation of impact of earthquake on agriculture in Nepal based on remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sekiyama, Ayako; Shimada, Sawahiko; Okazawa, Hiromu; Mihara, Machito; Kuo, Kuang Ting

2016-07-01

The big earthquake happening on April, 2015 killed over than 8000 people in Nepal. The effect of earthquake not only affected safety of local people but also agricultural field. Agricultural economy dominates income of local people. Therefore, restoration of agricultural areas are required for improving life of local people. However, lack of information about agricultural areas is main problem for local government to assess and restore damaged agricultural areas. Remote sensing was applied for accessing damaged agricultural field due to its advantages in observing responds of environment without temporal and spatial restriction. Accordingly, the objective of the study is to evaluate impact of earthquake on agriculture in Nepal based on remote sensing. The experimental procedure includes conducting the impact of earthquake on changes of total agricultural area, and analysis of response of greenness affected by earthquake in agricultural land. For conducting agricultural land changes, land use map was first created and classified into four categories: road, city, forest, and agricultural land. Changes before and after earthquake in total area of agricultural land were analyzed by GIS. Moreover, vegetation index was used as indicator for evaluating greenness responds in agricultural land and computed based on high-resolution satellite imagery such as World view-3. Finally, the conclusion of the study and suggestions will be made and provided for helping local government in Nepal restore agricultural areas.

Injury epidemiology after the 2001 Gujarat earthquake in India: a retrospective analysis of injuries treated at a rural hospital in the Kutch district immediately after the disaster

PubMed Central

Phalkey, Revati; Reinhardt, Jan D.; Marx, Michael

2011-01-01

Background The number of injured far exceeds those dead and the average injury to mortality ratio in earthquakes stands at 3:1. Immediate effective medical response significantly influences injury outcomes and thus the overall health impact of earthquakes. Inadequate or mismanagement of injuries may lead to disabilities. The lack of precise data from immediate aftermath is seen as a remarkable weak point in disaster epidemiology and warrants evidence generation. Objective To analyze the epidemiology of injuries and the treatment imparted at a secondary rural hospital in the Kutch district, Gujarat, India following the January 26, 2001 earthquake. Design/Methods Discharge reports of patients admitted to the hospital over 10 weeks were analyzed retrospectively for earthquake-related injuries. Results Orthopedic injuries, (particularly fractures of the lower limbs) were predominant and serious injuries like head, chest, abdominal, and crush syndrome were minimal. Wound infections were reported in almost 20% of the admitted cases. Surgical procedures were more common than conservative treatment. The most frequently performed surgical procedures were open reduction with internal fixation and cleaning and debridement of contaminated wounds. Four secondary deaths and 102 transfers to tertiary care due to complications were reported. Conclusion The injury epidemiology reported in this study is in general agreement with most other studies reporting injury epidemiology except higher incidence of distal orthopedic injuries particularly to the lower extremities. We also found that young males were more prone to sustaining injuries. These results warrant further research. Inconsistent data reporting procedures against the backdrop of inherent disaster data incompleteness calls for urgent standardization of reporting earthquake injuries for evidence-based response policy planning. PMID:21799668

Inundation Mapping and Hazard Assessment of Tectonic and Landslide Tsunamis in Southeast Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suleimani, E.; Nicolsky, D.; Koehler, R. D., III

2014-12-01

The Alaska Earthquake Center conducts tsunami inundation mapping for coastal communities in Alaska, and is currently focused on the southeastern region and communities of Yakutat, Elfin Cove, Gustavus and Hoonah. This activity provides local emergency officials with tsunami hazard assessment, planning, and mitigation tools. At-risk communities are distributed along several segments of the Alaska coastline, each having a unique seismic history and potential tsunami hazard. Thus, a critical component of our project is accurate identification and characterization of potential tectonic and landslide tsunami sources. The primary tectonic element of Southeast Alaska is the Fairweather - Queen Charlotte fault system, which has ruptured in 5 large strike-slip earthquakes in the past 100 years. The 1958 "Lituya Bay" earthquake triggered a large landslide into Lituya Bay that generated a 540-m-high wave. The M7.7 Haida Gwaii earthquake of October 28, 2012 occurred along the same fault, but was associated with dominantly vertical motion, generating a local tsunami. Communities in Southeast Alaska are also vulnerable to hazards related to locally generated waves, due to proximity of communities to landslide-prone fjords and frequent earthquakes. The primary mechanisms for local tsunami generation are failure of steep rock slopes due to relaxation of internal stresses after deglaciation, and failure of thick unconsolidated sediments accumulated on underwater delta fronts at river mouths. We numerically model potential tsunami waves and inundation extent that may result from future hypothetical far- and near-field earthquakes and landslides. We perform simulations for each source scenario using the Alaska Tsunami Model, which is validated through a set of analytical benchmarks and tested against laboratory and field data. Results of numerical modeling combined with historical observations are compiled on inundation maps and used for site-specific tsunami hazard assessment by emergency planners.

Distribution of intensity for the Westmorland, California, earthquake of April 26, 1981

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnhard, L.M.; Thenhaus, P.C.; Algermissen, Sylvester Theodore

1982-01-01

The maximum Modified Mercalli intensity of the April 26, 1981 earthquake located 5 km northwest of Westmorland, California is VII. Twelve buildings in Westmorland were severely damaged with an additional 30 sustaining minor damage. Two brick parapets fell in Calipatria, 14 km northeast of Westmorland and 10 km from the earthquake epicenter. Significant damage in rural areas was restricted to unreinforced, concrete-lined irrigation canals. Liquefaction effects and ground slumping were widespread in rural areas and were the primary causes of road cracking. Preliminary local government estimates of property loss range from one to three million dollars (Imperial Valley Press, 1981). The earthquake was felt over an area of approximately 160,000 km2; about the same felt area of the October 15, 1979 (Reagor and others, 1980), and May 18, 1940 (Ulrich, 1941) Imperial Valley earthquakes.

Evidence for tidal triggering on the earthquakes of the Hellenic Arc, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergos, G.; Arabelos, D. N.; Contadakis, M. E.

2015-12-01

In this paper we investigate the tidal triggering evidence on the earthquakes of the seismic area of the Hellenic Arc using the Hist(ogram)Cum(mulation) method. We analyze the series of the earthquakes occurred in the area which is confined by the longitudes 22° and 28°E and latitudes 34° and 36°N in the time period from 1964 to 2012. In this time period 16,137 shallow and of intermediate depth earthquakes with ML up to 6.0 and 1,482 deep earthquakes with ML up to 6.2 occurred. The result of the this analysis indicate that the monthly variation of the frequencies of earthquake occurrence is in accordance with the period of the tidal lunar monthly variations, and the same happens with the corresponding daily variations of the frequencies of earthquake occurrence with the diurnal luni-solar (K1) and semidiurnal solar (S2) tidal variations. These results are in favor of a tidal triggering process on earthquakes when the stress in the focal area is near the critical level.

Geographical Information Analysis of Tsunami Flooded Area by the Great East Japan Earthquake Using Mobile Mapping System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koarai, M.; Okatani, T.; Nakano, T.; Nakamura, T.; Hasegawa, M.

2012-07-01

The great earthquake occurred in Tohoku District, Japan on 11th March, 2011. This earthquake is named "the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake", and the damage by this earthquake is named "the Great East Japan Earthquake". About twenty thousand people were killed or lost by the tsunami of this earthquake, and large area was flooded and a large number of buildings were destroyed by the tsunami. The Geospatial Information Authority of Japan (GSI) has provided the data of tsunami flooded area interpreted from aerial photos taken just after the great earthquake. This is fundamental data of tsunami damage and very useful for consideration of reconstruction planning of tsunami damaged area. The authors analyzed the relationship among land use, landform classification, DEMs data flooded depth of the tsunami flooded area by the Great East Japan Earthquake in the Sendai Plain using GIS. Land use data is 100 meter grid data of National Land Information Data by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transportation and Tourism (MLIT). Landform classification data is vector data of Land Condition Map produced by GSI. DEMs data are 5 meters grid data measured with LiDAR by GSI after earthquake. Especially, the authors noticed the relationship between tsunami hazard damage and flooded depth. The authors divided tsunami damage into three categories by interpreting aerial photos; first is the completely destroyed area where almost wooden buildings were lost, second is the heavily damaged area where a large number of houses were destroyed by the tsunami, and third is the flooded only area where houses were less destroyed. The flooded depth was measured by photogrammetric method using digital image taken by Mobile Mapping System (MMS). The result of these geographic analyses show the distribution of tsunami damage level is as follows: 1) The completely destroyed area was located within 1km area from the coastline, flooded depth of this area is over 4m, and no relationship between damaged area and landform classification. 2) The heavily damaged area was observed up to 3 or 4km from the coastline. Flooded depth of this area is over 1.5m, and there is a good relationship between damaged area and height of DEMs. 3) The flood only area was observed up to 4 or 5km from the coastline. Flooded depth of this area was less than 1.5m, and there is a good relationship between damaged area and landform. For instance, a certain area in valley plain or flooded plain was not affected by the tsunami, even though an area with almost the same height in coastal plain or delta was flooded. These results mean that it is important for tsunami disaster management to consider not only DEMs but also landform classification.

Concepts and theoretical specifications of a Coastal Vulnerability Dynamic Simulator (COVUDS): A multi-agent system for simulating coastal vulnerability towards management of coastal ecosystem services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orencio, P. M.; Endo, A.; Taniguchi, M.

2014-12-01

Disaster-causing natural hazards such as floods, erosions, earthquakes or slope failures were particularly observed to be concentrated in certain geographical regions. In the Asia-pacific region, coastal ecosystems were suffering because of perennial threats driven by chronic fluctuations in climate variability (e.g., typhoons, ENSO), or by dynamically occurring events (e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis). Among the many people that were found prone to such a risky condition were the ones inhabiting near the coastal areas. Characteristically, aside from being located at the forefront of these events, the coastal communities have impacted the resource by the kind of behavioral patterns they exhibited, such as overdependence and overexploitation to achieve their wellbeing. In this paper, we introduce the development of an approach to an assessment of the coupled human- environment using a multi- agent simulation (MAS) model known as Coastal Vulnerability Dynamic Simulator (COVUDS). The COVUDS comprised a human- environmental platform consisting multi- agents with corresponding spatial- based dynamic and static variables. These variables were used to present multiple hypothetical future situations that contribute to the purpose of supporting a more rational management of the coastal ecosystem and their environmental equities. Initially, we present the theoretical and conceptual components that would lead to the development of the COVUDS. These consisted of the human population engaged in behavioral patterns affecting the conditions of coastal ecosystem services; the system of the biophysical environment and changes in patches brought by global environment and local behavioral variations; the policy factors that were important for choosing area- specific interventions; and the decision- making mechanism that integrates the first three components. To guide a future scenario-based application that will be undertaken in a coastal area in the Philippines, the components of the model will be presented within a platform following a parameterized architecture.

An innovative tool for landslide susceptibility mapping in Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saponaro, Annamaria; Pilz, Marco; Wieland, Marc; Bindi, Dino; Parolai, Stefano

2013-04-01

Kyrgyzstan is among the most exposed countries in the world to landslide susceptibility. The high seismicity of the area, the presence of high mountain ridges and topographic relieves, the geology of the local materials and the occurrence of heavy precipitations represent the main factors responsible for slope failures. In particular, the large variability of material properties and slope conditions as well as the difficulties in forecasting heavy precipitations locally and in quantifying the level of ground shaking call for harmonized procedures for reducing the negative impact of these factors. Several studies have recently been carried out aiming at preparing landslide susceptibility and hazard maps; however, some of them - qualitative-based - suffer from the application of subjective decision rules from experts in the classification of parameters that influence the occurrence of a landslide. On the other hand, statistical methods provide objectivity over qualitative ones since they allow a numerical evaluation of landslide spatial distribution with landslide potential factors. For this reason, we will make use of a bivariate technique known as Weight-Of-Evidence method to evaluate the influence of landslide predictive factors. The aim of this study is to identify areas in Kyrgyzstan being more prone to earthquake-triggered landslides. An innovative approach which exploits the new advances of GIS technology together with statistical concepts is presented. A range of conditioning factors and their potential impact on landslide activation is quantitatively assessed on the basis of landslide spatial distribution and seismic zonation. Results show areas which are more susceptible to landslides induced by earthquakes. Our approach can be used to fill the gap of subjectivity that typically affects already performed qualitative analysis. The resulting landslide susceptibility map represents a potentially supportive tool for disaster management and planning activities at regional level; furthermore, it can be used as a starting point for further constraining the analysis which might also consider meteorological influences and for carrying out an extension to all Central Asian countries in the framework of cross-border activities.

Seismic hazards in Thailand: a compilation and updated probabilistic analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pailoplee, Santi; Charusiri, Punya

2016-06-01

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Thailand was performed and compared to those of previous works. This PSHA was based upon (1) the most up-to-date paleoseismological data (slip rates), (2) the seismic source zones, (3) the seismicity parameters ( a and b values), and (4) the strong ground-motion attenuation models suggested as being suitable models for Thailand. For the PSHA mapping, both the ground shaking and probability of exceedance (POE) were analyzed and mapped using various methods of presentation. In addition, site-specific PSHAs were demonstrated for ten major provinces within Thailand. For instance, a 2 and 10 % POE in the next 50 years of a 0.1-0.4 g and 0.1-0.2 g ground shaking, respectively, was found for western Thailand, defining this area as the most earthquake-prone region evaluated in Thailand. In a comparison between the ten selected specific provinces within Thailand, the Kanchanaburi and Tak provinces had comparatively high seismic hazards, and therefore, effective mitigation plans for these areas should be made. Although Bangkok was defined as being within a low seismic hazard in this PSHA, a further study of seismic wave amplification due to the soft soil beneath Bangkok is required.

Tectonic studies of the Caribbean: Pure GPS Euler vectors to test for rigidity and for the existence of a Northern Lesser Antilles Forearc block; constraints for tsunami risk from reassessment of the April 1, 1946 Alaska-Aleutians and August 4, 1946 Hispaniola events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, Alberto M.

New Global Positioning System (GPS) data from nine sites within stable portions of the Caribbean (CA) plate have been used to constrain its motion in the International GPS Service reference frame (IGSb00) and with respect to North (NA) and South (SA) American plates. A comparison of GPS velocities between eastern and western Caribbean sites shows that there is no significant internal deformation occurring within the plate (0.9 mm/yr). The CA-NA Euler vector was used to predict azimuths at the northern Lesser Antilles arc, which slip vectors still misfit (˜ 5°--25°). This confirms slip partitioning in the forearc, where a forearc sliver, for the first time introduced here as the Northern Lesser Antilles Forearc block (NLAF) moves counter-clockwise with respect to Caribbean crust. Seismicity of the plate in conjunction with historical records of tsunamis in the Caribbean serves as evidence the region is prone to tsunamis. The Hispaniola August 4, 1946 earthquake generated a tsunami that 5 resulted in great loss of lives. A quantitative comparison of this event with that of the Aleutians April 1, 1946 show the tsunami originated from a submarine landslide and not as a "tsunami earthquake". The April 1, 1946 earthquake stands out as an exceptional case of slow rupture velocity. With a re-computed fault area of 181 x 115 km from aftershock relocations, and seismic moment of 5 x 1027 dyn-cm, the event features the smallest radiated energy to moment ratio (theta = -7.03) ever recorded to date. Tsunami earthquakes, such as the Hispaniola 1946, may have already occured in the past and could occur again in the Caribbean. Hence, potential rupture segments have been identified and used as loci of possible events in an effort to help assess the tsunami risk in the Caribbean and Atlantic region.

A revised “earthquake report” questionaire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stover, C.; Reagor, G.; Simon, R.

1976-01-01

The U.S geological Survey is responsible for conducting intensity and damage surveys following felt or destructive earthquakes in the United States. Shortly after a felt or damaging earthquake occurs, a canvass of the affected area is made. Specially developed questionnaires are mailed to volunteer observers located within the estimated felt area. These questionnaires, "Earthquake Reports," are filled out by the observers and returned to the Survey's National Earthquake Information Service, which is located in Colorado. They are then evaluated, and, based on answers to questions about physical effects seen or felt, each canvassed location is assigned to the various locations, they are plotted on an intensity distribution map. When all of the intensity data have been plotted, isoseismals can then be contoured through places where equal intensity was experienced. The completed isoseismal map yields a detailed picture of the earthquake, its effects, and its felt area. All of the data and maps are published quarterly in a U.S Geological Survey Circular series entitled "Earthquakes in the United States".  

History of Modern Earthquake Hazard Mapping and Assessment in California Using a Deterministic or Scenario Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mualchin, Lalliana

2011-03-01

Modern earthquake ground motion hazard mapping in California began following the 1971 San Fernando earthquake in the Los Angeles metropolitan area of southern California. Earthquake hazard assessment followed a traditional approach, later called Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) in order to distinguish it from the newer Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). In DSHA, seismic hazard in the event of the Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) magnitude from each of the known seismogenic faults within and near the state are assessed. The likely occurrence of the MCE has been assumed qualitatively by using late Quaternary and younger faults that are presumed to be seismogenic, but not when or within what time intervals MCE may occur. MCE is the largest or upper-bound potential earthquake in moment magnitude, and it supersedes and automatically considers all other possible earthquakes on that fault. That moment magnitude is used for estimating ground motions by applying it to empirical attenuation relationships, and for calculating ground motions as in neo-DSHA (Z uccolo et al., 2008). The first deterministic California earthquake hazard map was published in 1974 by the California Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) which has been called the California Geological Survey (CGS) since 2002, using the best available fault information and ground motion attenuation relationships at that time. The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) later assumed responsibility for printing the refined and updated peak acceleration contour maps which were heavily utilized by geologists, seismologists, and engineers for many years. Some engineers involved in the siting process of large important projects, for example, dams and nuclear power plants, continued to challenge the map(s). The second edition map was completed in 1985 incorporating more faults, improving MCE's estimation method, and using new ground motion attenuation relationships from the latest published results at that time. CDMG eventually published the second edition map in 1992 following the Governor's Board of Inquiry on the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake and at the demand of Caltrans. The third edition map was published by Caltrans in 1996 utilizing GIS technology to manage data that includes a simplified three-dimension geometry of faults and to facilitate efficient corrections and revisions of data and the map. The spatial relationship of fault hazards with highways, bridges or any other attribute can be efficiently managed and analyzed now in GIS at Caltrans. There has been great confidence in using DSHA in bridge engineering and other applications in California, and it can be confidently applied in any other earthquake-prone region. Earthquake hazards defined by DSHA are: (1) transparent and stable with robust MCE moment magnitudes; (2) flexible in their application to design considerations; (3) can easily incorporate advances in ground motion simulations; and (4) economical. DSHA and neo-DSHA have the same approach and applicability. The accuracy of DSHA has proven to be quite reasonable for practical applications within engineering design and always done with professional judgment. In the final analysis, DSHA is a reality-check for public safety and PSHA results. Although PSHA has been acclaimed as a better approach for seismic hazard assessment, it is DSHA, not PSHA, that has actually been used in seismic hazard assessment for building and bridge engineering, particularly in California.

Earthquakes

MedlinePlus

An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...

Mental health problems among survivors in hard-hit areas of the 5.12 Wenchuan and 4.20 Lushan earthquakes.

PubMed

Xie, Zongtang; Xu, Jiuping; Wu, Zhibin

2017-02-01

Earthquake exposure has often been associated with psychological distress. However, little is known about the cumulative effect of exposure to two earthquakes on psychological distress and in particular, the effect on the development of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety and depression disorders. This study explored the effect of exposure on mental health outcomes after a first earthquake and again after a second earthquake. A population-based mental health survey using self-report questionnaires was conducted on 278 people in the hard-hit areas of Lushan and Baoxing Counties 13-16 months after the Wenchuan earthquake (Sample 1). 191 of these respondents were evaluated again 8-9 months after the Lushan earthquake (Sample 2), which struck almost 5 years after the Wenchuan earthquake. In Sample 1, the prevalence rates for PTSD, anxiety and depression disorders were 44.53, 54.25 and 51.82%, respectively, and in Sample 2 the corresponding rates were 27.27, 38.63 and 36.93%. Females, the middle-aged, those of Tibetan nationality, and people who reported fear during the earthquake were at an increased risk of experiencing post-traumatic symptoms. Although the incidence of PTSD, anxiety and depression disorders decreased from Sample 1 to Sample 2, the cumulative effect of exposure to two earthquakes on mental health problems was serious in the hard-hit areas. Therefore, it is important that psychological counseling be provided for earthquake victims, and especially those exposed to multiple earthquakes.

GIS learning tool for world's largest earthquakes and their causes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatterjee, Moumita

The objective of this thesis is to increase awareness about earthquakes among people, especially young students by showing the five largest and two most predictable earthquake locations in the world and their plate tectonic settings. This is a geographic based interactive tool which could be used for learning about the cause of great earthquakes in the past and the safest places on the earth in order to avoid direct effect of earthquakes. This approach provides an effective way of learning for the students as it is very user friendly and more aligned to the interests of the younger generation. In this tool the user can click on the various points located on the world map which will open a picture and link to the webpage for that point, showing detailed information of the earthquake history of that place including magnitude of quake, year of past quakes and the plate tectonic settings that made this place earthquake prone. Apart from knowing the earthquake related information students will also be able to customize the tool to suit their needs or interests. Students will be able to add/remove layers, measure distance between any two points on the map, select any place on the map and know more information for that place, create a layer from this set to do a detail analysis, run a query, change display settings, etc. At the end of this tool the user has to go through the earthquake safely guidelines in order to be safe during an earthquake. This tool uses Java as programming language and uses Map Objects Java Edition (MOJO) provided by ESRI. This tool is developed for educational purpose and hence its interface has been kept simple and easy to use so that students can gain maximum knowledge through it instead of having a hard time to install it. There are lots of details to explore which can help more about what a GIS based tool is capable of. Only thing needed to run this tool is latest JAVA edition installed in their machine. This approach makes study more fun and interactive while educating students about a very important natural disaster which has been threatening us in recent years. This tool has been developed to increase awareness of the cause and effect of earthquake and how to be safe if that kind of disaster happens.

Focal mechanism and stress analyses for main tectonic zones in Albania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dushi, Edmond; Koçi, Rexhep; Begu, Enkela; Bozo, Rrezart

2017-04-01

In this study, a number of 33 moderate earthquakes for the period 2013-2015, ranging in magnitude within 2.2 ≤ MW ≤ 4.9 and located within the Albanian territory, have been analyzed. As an earthquake prone country, situated at the frontal collision boundary between Adria microplate and Eurasian tectonic plate, Albania is characterized frequently by micro earthquakes, many moderate and seldom by strong ones. It is evidenced that the whole territory is divided in two different tectonic domains, correspondingly the outer and the inner domain, showing different stress regime as clearly evidenced based on earthquake focal mechanism and geodetic studies. Although strong earthquakes are clearly related to faults in tectonically active areas, moderate events are more frequent revealing valuable information on this purpose. All the studied events are selected to be well-recorded by a maximum possible number of the local broadband (BB) seismological stations of Albanian Seismological Network (ASN), although regional stations have been used as well to constrain the solution. Earthquakes are grouped according to their location, within three well-defined tectonic zones, namely: Adriatic-Ionian (AI), Lushnja-Elbasani-Dibra (LED) and Ohrid-Korça (OK). For each event, the seismic moment M0is determined, through spectral analyses. Moment values vary ranging 1012 - 1015 Nm, for the Adriatic-Ionian (AI) outer zone; 1013 - 1016 Nm, for the Lushnja-Elbasani-Dibra (LED) transversal zone, which cuts through both the outer and the inner domains and 1012 - 1014 Nm, for the Ohrid-Korça (OK), north-south trending inner zone. Focal mechanism solutions (FMS) have been determined for each earthquake, based on the robust first motion polarities method, as applied in the FOCMEC (Seisan 10.1) routine. Using the Michael's linear bootstrap invertion on FMS, a stress analysis is applied. Results show the minimum compressional stress directions variation: σ1 370/270, σ23030/80 and σ31980/620 (μ = 0.4) for AI zone; σ1830/90, σ22040/730and σ33500/140 (μ = 0.4) for LED zone and σ13060/430, σ21860/280 and σ3750/340 (μ = 0.65) for OK zone. Based on final results, according to Zoback (1992), the Adriatic-Ionian (AI) zone is characterized mainly by thrust (TF) faulting, although normal and oblique ones take place as well. This outer zone is under a compressive stress regime, where the maximum horizontal stress lies in the direction of P axes. Meanwhile, the Lushnja-Elbasani-Dibra (LED) transversal zone, is characterized by normal-oblique faulting (NF-NS), undergoing an oblique transform to extensional stress regime, where the maximum horizontal stress extends at the (T + 900) direction. The Ohrid-Korça (OK) zone is characterized by oblique-normal faults, undergoing and extensional stress regime, where the maximum horizontal stress lies in the of T axes direction. Keywords: moderate earthquakes, focal mechanism, stress

Localized surface disruptions observed by InSAR during strong earthquakes in Java and Hawai'i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poland, M.

2010-01-01

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data spanning strong earthquakes on the islands of Java and Hawai‘i in 2006 reveal patches of subsidence and incoherence indicative of localized ground failure. Interferograms spanning the 26 May 2006 Java earthquake suggest an area of about 7.5 km2 of subsidence (~2 cm) and incoherence south of the city of Yogyakarta that correlates with significant damage to housing, high modeled peak ground accelerations, and poorly consolidated geologic deposits. The subsidence and incoherence is inferred to be a result of intense shaking and/or damage. At least five subsidence patches on the west side of the Island of Hawai‘i, ranging 0.3–2.2 km2 in area and 3–8 cm in magnitude, occurred as a result of a pair of strong earthquakes on 15 October 2006. Although no felt reports or seismic data are available from the areas in Hawai‘i, the Java example suggests that the subsidence patches indicate areas of amplified earthquake shaking. Surprisingly, all subsidence areas in Hawai‘i were limited to recent, and supposedly stable, lava flows and may reflect geological conditions not detectable at the surface. In addition, two ‘a‘ā lava flows in Hawai‘i were partially incoherent in interferograms spanning the earthquakes, indicating surface disruption as a result of the earthquake shaking. Coearthquake incoherence of rubbly deposits, like ‘a‘ā flows, should be explored as a potential indicator of earthquake intensity and past strong seismic activity.

Topographic changes and their driving factors after 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Congrong; Wang, Ming; Liu, Kai; Xie, Jun

2018-06-01

The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake caused topographic change in the stricken areas because of the occurrence of numerous coseismic landslides. The emergence of new landslides and debris flows and movement of loose materials under the driving force of high rainfall could further shape the local topography. Currently, little attention has been paid to continuously monitoring and assessing topographic changes after the major earthquake. In this research, we obtained an elevation dataset (2002, 2010, 2013 and 2015) based on digital elevation model (DEM) data and a DEM extracted from ZY-3 stereo paired images with validation by field measurement. We quantitatively assessed elevation changes in different years and qualitatively analyzed spatiotemporal variation of the terrain and mass movement across the study area. The results show that the earthquake affected area experienced substantial elevation changes caused by seismic forces and subsequent rainfalls. High rainfall after the earthquake have become the biggest driver of elevation reduction, which overwhelmed elevation increase caused by the major earthquake. Increased post-earthquake erosion intensity has caused large amounts of loose materials to accumulate in river channels, and gullies and on upper-middle mountain slopes, which increases the risk of flooding and geo-hazards in the area.

St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project - A Progress Report-November 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karadeniz, D.; Rogers, J.D.; Williams, R.A.; Cramer, C.H.; Bauer, R.A.; Hoffman, D.; Chung, J.; Hempen, G.L.; Steckel, P.H.; Boyd, O.L.; Watkins, C.M.; McCallister, N.S.; Schweig, E.

2009-01-01

St. Louis has experienced minor earthquake damage at least 12 times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and its proximity to known active earthquake zones, the St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project (SLAEHMP) is producing digital maps that show variability of earthquake hazards, including liquefaction and ground shaking, in the St. Louis area. The maps will be available free via the internet. Although not site specific enough to indicate the hazard at a house-by-house resolution, they can be customized by the user to show specific areas of interest, such as neighborhoods or transportation routes. Earthquakes currently cannot be predicted, but scientists can estimate how strongly the ground is likely to shake as the result of an earthquake. Earthquake hazard maps provide one way of conveying such estimates. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), which produces earthquake hazard maps for the Nation, is working with local partners to develop detailed maps for urban areas vulnerable to strong ground shaking. These partners, which along with the USGS comprise the SLAEHMP, include the Missouri University of Science and Technology-Rolla (Missouri S&T), Missouri Department of Natural Resources (MDNR), Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS), Saint Louis University, Missouri State Emergency Management Agency, and URS Corporation. Preliminary hazard maps covering a test portion of the 29-quadrangle St. Louis study area have been produced and are currently being evaluated by the SLAEHMP. A USGS Fact Sheet summarizing this project was produced and almost 1000 copies have been distributed at several public outreach meetings and field trips that have featured the SLAEHMP (Williams and others, 2007). In addition, a USGS website focusing on the SLAEHMP, which provides links to project results and relevant earthquake hazard information, can be found at: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/ceus/urban_map/st_louis/index.php. This progress report summarizes the methodology and data used to generate these preliminary maps. For more details about many of the topics in this summary the reader is referred to the Karadeniz (2007) and Chung (2007) Ph.D. theses.

Real-time earthquake shake, damage, and loss mapping for Istanbul metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zülfikar, A. Can; Fercan, N. Özge Zülfikar; Tunç, Süleyman; Erdik, Mustafa

2017-01-01

The past devastating earthquakes in densely populated urban centers, such as the 1994 Northridge; 1995 Kobe; 1999 series of Kocaeli, Düzce, and Athens; and 2011 Van-Erciş events, showed that substantial social and economic losses can be expected. Previous studies indicate that inadequate emergency response can increase the number of casualties by a maximum factor of 10, which suggests the need for research on rapid earthquake shaking damage and loss estimation. The reduction in casualties in urban areas immediately following an earthquake can be improved if the location and severity of damages can be rapidly assessed by information from rapid response systems. In this context, a research project (TUBITAK-109M734) titled "Real-time Information of Earthquake Shaking, Damage, and Losses for Target Cities of Thessaloniki and Istanbul" was conducted during 2011-2014 to establish the rapid estimation of ground motion shaking and related earthquake damages and casualties for the target cities. In the present study, application to Istanbul metropolitan area is presented. In order to fulfill this objective, earthquake hazard and risk assessment methodology known as Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine, which was developed for the Euro-Mediterranean region within the Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology EC-FP6 project, was used. The current application to the Istanbul metropolitan area provides real-time ground motion information obtained by strong motion stations distributed throughout the densely populated areas of the city. According to this ground motion information, building damage estimation is computed by using grid-based building inventory, and the related loss is then estimated. Through this application, the rapidly estimated information enables public and private emergency management authorities to take action and allocate and prioritize resources to minimize the casualties in urban areas during immediate post-earthquake periods. Moreover, it is expected that during an earthquake, rapid information of ground shaking, damage, and loss estimations will provide vital information to allow appropriate emergency agencies to take immediate action, which will help to save lives. In general terms, this study can be considered as an example for application to metropolitan areas under seismic risk.

Oklahoma’s recent earthquakes and saltwater disposal

PubMed Central

Walsh, F. Rall; Zoback, Mark D.

2015-01-01

Over the past 5 years, parts of Oklahoma have experienced marked increases in the number of small- to moderate-sized earthquakes. In three study areas that encompass the vast majority of the recent seismicity, we show that the increases in seismicity follow 5- to 10-fold increases in the rates of saltwater disposal. Adjacent areas where there has been relatively little saltwater disposal have had comparatively few recent earthquakes. In the areas of seismic activity, the saltwater disposal principally comes from “produced” water, saline pore water that is coproduced with oil and then injected into deeper sedimentary formations. These formations appear to be in hydraulic communication with potentially active faults in crystalline basement, where nearly all the earthquakes are occurring. Although most of the recent earthquakes have posed little danger to the public, the possibility of triggering damaging earthquakes on potentially active basement faults cannot be discounted. PMID:26601200

Prevention of Tetanus Outbreak Following Natural Disaster in Indonesia: Lessons Learned from Previous Disasters.

PubMed

Pascapurnama, Dyshelly Nurkartika; Murakami, Aya; Chagan-Yasutan, Haorile; Hattori, Toshio; Sasaki, Hiroyuki; Egawa, Shinichi

2016-03-01

In Indonesia, the Aceh earthquake and tsunami in 2004 killed 127,000 people and caused half a million injuries, while the Yogyakarta earthquake in 2006 caused 5,700 deaths and 37,000 injuries. Because disaster-affected areas are vulnerable to epidemic-prone diseases and tetanus is one such disease that is preventable, we systematically reviewed the literature related to tetanus outbreaks following previous two natural disasters in Indonesia. Based on our findings, recommendations for proper vaccination and education can be made for future countermeasures. Using specified keywords related to tetanus and disasters, relevant documents were screened from PubMed, the WHO website, and books. Reports offering limited data and those released before 2004 were excluded. In all, 16 publications were reviewed systematically. Results show that 106 cases of tetanus occurred in Aceh, with a case fatality ratio (CFR) of 18.9%; 71 cases occurred in Yogyakarta, with CFR of 36.6%. For both outbreaks, most patients had been wounded during scavenging or evacuation after the disaster occurred. Poor access to health care because of limited transportation or hospital facilities, and low vaccination coverage and lack of awareness of tetanus risk contributed to delayed treatment and case severity. Tetanus outbreaks after disasters are preventable by increasing vaccination coverage, improving wound care treatment, and establishing a regular surveillance system, in addition to good practices of disaster management and supportive care following national guidelines. Furthermore, health education for communities should be provided to raise awareness of tetanus risk reduction.

The 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance: A Case Study - Using an Earthquake Anniversary to Promote Earthquake Preparedness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brocher, T. M.; Garcia, S.; Aagaard, B. T.; Boatwright, J. J.; Dawson, T.; Hellweg, M.; Knudsen, K. L.; Perkins, J.; Schwartz, D. P.; Stoffer, P. W.; Zoback, M.

2008-12-01

Last October 21st marked the 140th anniversary of the M6.8 1868 Hayward Earthquake, the last damaging earthquake on the southern Hayward Fault. This anniversary was used to help publicize the seismic hazards associated with the fault because: (1) the past five such earthquakes on the Hayward Fault occurred about 140 years apart on average, and (2) the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault system is the most likely (with a 31 percent probability) fault in the Bay Area to produce a M6.7 or greater earthquake in the next 30 years. To promote earthquake awareness and preparedness, over 140 public and private agencies and companies and many individual joined the public-private nonprofit 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance (1868alliance.org). The Alliance sponsored many activities including a public commemoration at Mission San Jose in Fremont, which survived the 1868 earthquake. This event was followed by an earthquake drill at Bay Area schools involving more than 70,000 students. The anniversary prompted the Silver Sentinel, an earthquake response exercise based on the scenario of an earthquake on the Hayward Fault conducted by Bay Area County Offices of Emergency Services. 60 other public and private agencies also participated in this exercise. The California Seismic Safety Commission and KPIX (CBS affiliate) produced professional videos designed forschool classrooms promoting Drop, Cover, and Hold On. Starting in October 2007, the Alliance and the U.S. Geological Survey held a sequence of press conferences to announce the release of new research on the Hayward Fault as well as new loss estimates for a Hayward Fault earthquake. These included: (1) a ShakeMap for the 1868 Hayward earthquake, (2) a report by the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasting the number of employees, employers, and wages predicted to be within areas most strongly shaken by a Hayward Fault earthquake, (3) new estimates of the losses associated with a Hayward Fault earthquake, (4) new ground motion simulations of a Hayward Fault earthquake, (5) a new USGS Fact Sheet about the earthquake and the Hayward Fault, (6) a virtual tour of the 1868 earthquake, and (7) a new online field trip guide to the Hayward Fault using locations accessible by car and public transit. Finally, the California Geological Survey and many other Alliance members sponsored the Third Conference on Earthquake Hazards in the East Bay at CSU East Bay in Hayward for the three days following the 140th anniversary. The 1868 Alliance hopes to commemorate the anniversary of the 1868 Hayward Earthquake every year to maintain and increase public awareness of this fault, the hazards it and other East Bay Faults pose, and the ongoing need for earthquake preparedness and mitigation.

Investigating microearthquake finite source attributes with IRIS Community Wavefield Demonstration Experiment in Oklahoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Wenyuan; McGuire, Jeffrey J.

2018-05-01

An earthquake rupture process can be kinematically described by rupture velocity, duration and spatial extent. These key kinematic source parameters provide important constraints on earthquake physics and rupture dynamics. In particular, core questions in earthquake science can be addressed once these properties of small earthquakes are well resolved. However, these parameters of small earthquakes are poorly understood, often limited by available datasets and methodologies. The IRIS Community Wavefield Experiment in Oklahoma deployed ˜350 three component nodal stations within 40 km2 for a month, offering an unprecedented opportunity to test new methodologies for resolving small earthquake finite source properties in high resolution. In this study, we demonstrate the power of the nodal dataset to resolve the variations in the seismic wavefield over the focal sphere due to the finite source attributes of a M2 earthquake within the array. The dense coverage allows us to tightly constrain rupture area using the second moment method even for such a small earthquake. The M2 earthquake was a strike-slip event and unilaterally propagated towards the surface at 90 per cent local S- wave speed (2.93 km s-1). The earthquake lasted ˜0.019 s and ruptured Lc ˜70 m by Wc ˜45 m. With the resolved rupture area, the stress-drop of the earthquake is estimated as 7.3 MPa for Mw 2.3. We demonstrate that the maximum and minimum bounds on rupture area are within a factor of two, much lower than typical stress drop uncertainty, despite a suboptimal station distribution. The rupture properties suggest that there is little difference between the M2 Oklahoma earthquake and typical large earthquakes. The new three component nodal systems have great potential for improving the resolution of studies of earthquake source properties.

Earthquake precursory events around epicenters and local active faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valizadeh Alvan, H.; Mansor, S. B.; Haydari Azad, F.

2013-05-01

The chain of underground events which are triggered by seismic activities and physical/chemical interactions prior to a shake in the earth's crust may produce surface and above surface phenomena. During the past decades many researchers have been carried away to seek the possibility of short term earthquake prediction using remote sensing data. Currently, there are several theories about the preparation stages of earthquakes most of which stress on raises in heat and seismic waves as the main signs of an impending earthquakes. Their differences only lie in the secondary phenomena which are triggered by these events. In any case, with the recent advances in remote sensing sensors and techniques now we are able to provide wider, more accurate monitoring of land, ocean and atmosphere. Among all theoretical factors, changes in Surface Latent Heat Flux (SLHF), Sea & Land Surface Temperature (SST & LST) and surface chlorophyll-a are easier to record from earth observing satellites. SLHF is the amount of energy exchange in the form of water vapor between the earth's surface and atmosphere. Abnormal variations in this factor have been frequently reported as an earthquake precursor during the past years. The accumulated stress in the earth's crust during the preparation phase of earthquakes is said to be the main cause of temperature anomalies weeks to days before the main event and subsequent shakes. Chemical and physical interactions in the presence of underground water lead to higher water evaporation prior to inland earthquakes. In case of oceanic earthquakes, higher temperature at the ocean beds may lead to higher amount of Chl-a on the sea surface. On the other hand, it has been also said that the leak of Radon gas which occurs as rocks break during earthquake preparation causes the formation of airborne ions and higher Air Temperature (AT). We have chosen to perform a statistical, long-term, and short-term approach by considering the reoccurrence intervals of past shakes, mapping foreshocks and aftershocks, and following changes in the above-mentioned precursors prior to past earthquake instances all over the globe. Our analyses also encompass the geographical location and extents of local and regional faults which are considered as important factors during earthquakes. The co-analysis of direct and indirect observation for precursory events is considered as a promising method for possible future successful earthquake predictions. With proper and thorough knowledge about the geological setting, atmospheric factors and geodynamics of the earthquake-prone regions we will be able to identify anomalies due to seismic activity in the earth's crust.

Megathrust earthquakes in Central Chile: What is next after the Maule 2010 earthquake?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madariaga, R.

2013-05-01

The 27 February 2010 Maule earthquake occurred in a well identified gap in the Chilean subduction zone. The event has now been studied in detail using both far-field, near field seismic and geodetic data, we will review this information gathered so far. The event broke a region that was much longer along strike than the gap left over from the 1835 Concepcion earthquake, sometimes called the Darwin earthquake because he was in the area when the earthquake occurred and made many observations. Recent studies of contemporary documents by Udias et al indicate that the area broken by the Maule earthquake in 2010 had previously broken by a similar earthquake in 1751, but several events in the magnitude 8 range occurred in the area principally in 1835 already mentioned and, more recently on 1 December 1928 to the North and on 21 May 1960 (1 1/2 days before the big Chilean earthquake of 1960). Currently the area of the 2010 earthquake and the region immediately to the North is undergoing a very large increase in seismicity with numerous clusters of seismicity that move along the plate interface. Examination of the seismicity of Chile of the 18th and 19th century show that the region immediately to the North of the 2010 earthquake broke in a very large megathrust event in July 1730. this is the largest known earthquake in central Chile. The region where this event occurred has broken in many occasions with M 8 range earthquakes in 1822, 1880, 1906, 1971 and 1985. Is it preparing for a new very large megathrust event? The 1906 earthquake of Mw 8.3 filled the central part of the gap but it has broken again on several occasions in 1971, 1973 and 1985. The main question is whether the 1906 earthquake relieved enough stresses from the 1730 rupture zone. Geodetic data shows that most of the region that broke in 1730 is currently almost fully locked from the northern end of the Maule earthquake at 34.5°S to 30°S, near the southern end of the of the Mw 8.5 Atacama earthquake of 11 November 1922. This regions needs special surveillance.

Study on Seismicity of Sino-Mongolia Arc Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Guangyin; Wang, Suyun

2016-04-01

Using the earthquake catalogue from China, Mongolia and the global catalogue, the uniform catalogue of North China, Mongolia and adjacent areas, which is within the region 80-130°E, 40-55°N, has been established by Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration and Research Center of Astronomy and Geophysics, Mongolian Academy of Science for the seismic hazard analysis and seismic zoning map of Mongolia according to the following principles. 1) Earthquakes, which just exist in one catalogue, need to be verified further. If the earthquakes occurred in the country where the catalog comes from, then they will be adopted. If not, it should be checked with other more data. 2) The events that come from the three data sources have be checked and verified as followings. (1) The parameters of earthquakes that occurred in China will be taken from China catalog. (2)The parameters of earthquakes that occurred in Mongolia will be taken from Mongolia catalog. (3) The parameters of earthquakes that occurred in the adjacent areas will be taken from the global catalog by Song et al. According to the uniform catalogue, the seismicity of the North China, Mongolia and adjacent areas is analyzed, and the conclusions as followings are made. 1) The epicenter map can be roughly divided into two parts, bounded by the longitude line 105°E , in accordance with the "North-South Seismic Belt" of China. The seismicity is in a high level with many strong earthquakes in the west and is in a low level with little strong events in the east. 2) Most earthquakes are shallow-focus events, but there are also several middle or deep-focus events in the study area. 3) Earthquakes with magnitude greater than 5 are basically complete since 1450 A.D., and the seismicity of the study areas is in a high level since 1700 A. 4) Two seismic belts, Altay seismic belt and Bolnay-Baikal seismic belt, are determined according to the epicenters and tectonics. 5) The b-values of magnitude - frequency relationship for the whole areas are between 0.6 and 0.7 based on the uniform catalogue, 0.677 for the Altay seismic belt and 0.699 for the Bolnay-Baikal seismic belt. KEY WORDS：Earthquake Catalogue, Seismicity, North China, Mongolia

Near-Field Deformation Associated with the South Napa Earthquake (M 6.0) Using Differential Airborne LiDAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudnut, K. W.; Glennie, C. L.; Brooks, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.; Ericksen, T.; Boatwright, J.; Rosinski, A.; Dawson, T. E.; Mccrink, T. P.; Mardock, D. K.; Hoirup, D. F., Jr.; Bray, J.

2014-12-01

Pre-earthquake airborne LiDAR coverage exists for the area impacted by the M 6.0 South Napa earthquake. The Napa watershed data set was acquired in 2003, and data sets were acquired in other portions of the impacted area in 2007, 2010 and 2014. The pre-earthquake data are being assessed and are of variable quality and point density. Following the earthquake, a coalition was formed to enable rapid acquisition of post-earthquake LiDAR. Coordination of this coalition took place through the California Earthquake Clearinghouse; consequently, a commercial contract was organized by Department of Water Resources that allowed for the main fault rupture and damaged Browns Valley area to be covered 16 days after the earthquake at a density of 20 points per square meter over a 20 square kilometer area. Along with the airborne LiDAR, aerial imagery was acquired and will be processed to form an orthomosaic using the LiDAR-derived DEM. The 'Phase I' airborne data were acquired using an Optech Orion M300 scanner, an Applanix 200 GPS-IMU, and a DiMac ultralight medium format camera by Towill. These new data, once delivered, will be differenced against the pre-earthquake data sets using a newly developed algorithm for point cloud matching, which is improved over prior methods by accounting for scan geometry error sources. Proposed additional 'Phase II' coverage would allow repeat-pass, post-earthquake coverage of the same area of interest as in Phase I, as well as an addition of up to 4,150 square kilometers that would potentially allow for differential LiDAR assessment of levee and bridge impacts at a greater distance from the earthquake source. Levee damage was reported up to 30 km away from the epicenter, and proposed LiDAR coverage would extend up to 50 km away and cover important critical lifeline infrastructure in the western Sacramento River delta, as well as providing full post-earthquake repeat-pass coverage of the Napa watershed to study transient deformation.

Education for Earthquake Disaster Prevention in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oki, S.; Tsuji, H.; Koketsu, K.; Yazaki, Y.

2008-12-01

Japan frequently suffers from all types of disasters such as earthquakes, typhoons, floods, volcanic eruptions, and landslides. In the first half of this year, we already had three big earthquakes and heavy rainfall, which killed more than 30 people. This is not just for Japan but Asia is the most disaster-afflicted region in the world, accounting for about 90% of all those affected by disasters, and more than 50% of the total fatalities and economic losses. One of the most essential ways to reduce the damage of natural disasters is to educate the general public to let them understand what is going on during those desasters. This leads individual to make the sound decision on what to do to prevent or reduce the damage. The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), therefore, offered for public subscription to choose several model areas to adopt scientific education to the local elementary schools, and ERI, the Earthquake Research Institute, is qualified to develop education for earthquake disaster prevention in the Tokyo metropolitan area. The tectonic setting of this area is very complicated; there are the Pacific and Philippine Sea plates subducting beneath the North America and the Eurasia plates. The subduction of the Philippine Sea plate causes mega-thrust earthquakes such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (M 8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M 7.9) which had 105,000 fatalities. A magnitude 7 or greater earthquake beneath this area is recently evaluated to occur with a probability of 70 % in 30 years. This is of immediate concern for the devastating loss of life and property because the Tokyo urban region now has a population of 42 million and is the center of approximately 40 % of the nation's activities, which may cause great global economic repercussion. To better understand earthquakes in this region, "Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Tokyo Metropolitan Area" has been conducted mainly by ERI. It is a 4-year project to develop a high-density network with 400 sites at local elementary schools. We start our education project by using the real seismograms observed at their own schoolyards, putting emphasis on the reality and causality of earthquake disasters. In this presentation, we report some of the educational demonstrations and science experiments for the school kids and their parents.

The Wenchuan, China M8.0 Earthquake: A Lesson and Implication for Seismic Hazard Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z.

2008-12-01

The Wenchuan, China M8.0 earthquake caused great damage and huge casualty. 69,197 people were killed, 374,176 people were injured, and 18,341 people are still missing. The estimated direct economic loss is about 126 billion U.S. dollar. The Wenchuan earthquake again demonstrated that earthquake does not kill people, but the built environments and induced hazards, landslides in particular, do. Therefore, it is critical to strengthen the built environments, such buildings and bridges, and to mitigate the induced hazards in order to avoid such disaster. As a part of the so-called North-South Seismic Zone in China, the Wenchuan earthquake occurred along the Longmen Shan thrust belt which forms a boundary between the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Sichuan basin, and there is a long history (~4,000 years) of seismicity in the area. The historical records show that the area experienced high intensity (i.e., greater than IX) in the past several thousand years. In other words, the area is well-known to have high seismic hazard because of its tectonic setting and seismicity. However, only intensity VII (0.1 to 0.15g PGA) has been considered for seismic design for the built environments in the area. This was one of the main reasons that so many building collapses, particularly the school buildings, during the Wenchuan earthquake. It is clear that the seismic design (i.e., the design ground motion or intensity) is not adequate in the Wenchuan earthquake stricken area. A lesson can be learned from the Wenchuan earthquake on the seismic hazard and risk assessment. A lesson can also be learned from this earthquake on seismic hazard mitigation and/or seismic risk reduction.

Evaluating the Relationship Between Seismicity and Subsurface Well Activity in Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lajoie, L. J.; Bennett, S. E. K.

2014-12-01

Understanding the relationship between seismicity and subsurface well activity is crucial to evaluating the seismic hazard of transient, non-tectonic seismicity. Several studies have demonstrated correlations between increased frequency of earthquake occurrence and the injection/production of fluids (e.g. oil, water) in nearby subsurface wells in intracontinental settings (e.g. Arkansas, Colorado, Ohio, Oklahoma, Texas). Here, we evaluate all earthquake magnitudes for the past 20-30 years across the diverse seismotectonic settings of Utah. We explore earthquakes within 5 km and subsequent to completion dates of oil and gas wells. We compare seismicity rates prior to well establishment with rates after well establishment in an attempt to discriminate between natural and anthropogenic earthquakes in areas of naturally high background seismicity. In a few central Utah locations, we find that the frequency of shallow (0-10 km) earthquakes increased subsequent to completion of gas wells within 5 km, and at depths broadly similar to bottom hole depths. However, these regions typically correspond to mining regions of the Wasatch Plateau, complicating our ability to distinguish between earthquakes related to either well activity or mining. We calculate earthquake density and well density and compare their ratio (earthquakes per area/wells per area) with several published metrics of seismotectonic setting. Areas with a higher earthquake-well ratio are located in relatively high strain regions (determined from GPS) associated with the Intermountain Seismic Belt, but cannot be attributed to any specific Quaternary-active fault. Additionally, higher ratio areas do not appear to coincide with anomalously high heat flow values, where rocks are typically thermally weakened. Incorporation of timing and volume data for well injection/production would allow for more robust temporal statistical analysis and hazard analysis.

Post-traumatic stress disorder and its predictors among bereaved Tibetan adolescents four years after the Yushu earthquake: a cross-sectional survey in China.

PubMed

Dongling, Liu; Hui, Chen; Ling, Ma; Wenqian, Bie; Zailiang, Liu; Changying, Chen

2017-04-01

To examine the prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms and to explore the predictive factors of post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms among bereaved adolescents four years after the Yushu earthquake. On 14 April 2010, the 7·1-magnitude Yushu earthquake occurred in the high-altitude, hypoxia-prone regions primarily inhabited by ethnic minorities. Many adolescents lost their parents during the earthquake. This study examined post-traumatic stress disorder and its predictors among bereaved Tibetan adolescents four years after the trauma in China. This was a cross-sectional descriptive study. This study used a cross-sectional design with 830 bereaved adolescents. Participant demographic data included gender, age and grade, and the earthquake exposure variables included the deceased relatives, whether they were buried, injured or amputated (non-life-threatening) and whether they witnessed a burial, injury or death. The post-traumatic stress disorder Checklist-Civilian version was used to assess the symptoms and prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder, and the Coping Style Scale assessed coping styles. The results indicated that the prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder was 19·3%. Individuals who were buried, injured or amputated (non-life-threatening), who witnessed a burial, injury or death, who suffered severe property loss during the earthquake and who had negative coping skills were the most likely individuals to have post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms. The presence of post-traumatic stress disorder was very prevalent among adolescents four years after the Yushu earthquake. Effective mental health services should be developed to facilitate postdisaster recovery for bereaved adolescents at high risk for post-traumatic stress disorder. The findings in this study improve our understanding of post-traumatic stress disorder and related risk factors in bereaved adolescents in non-Western communities, providing useful information for rebuilding and relief work. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Permeability, storage and hydraulic diffusivity controlled by earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brodsky, E. E.; Fulton, P. M.; Xue, L.

2016-12-01

Earthquakes can increase permeability in fractured rocks. In the farfield, such permeability increases are attributed to seismic waves and can last for months after the initial earthquake. Laboratory studies suggest that unclogging of fractures by the transient flow driven by seismic waves is a viable mechanism. These dynamic permeability increases may contribute to permeability enhancement in the seismic clouds accompanying hydraulic fracking. Permeability enhancement by seismic waves could potentially be engineered and the experiments suggest the process will be most effective at a preferred frequency. We have recently observed similar processes inside active fault zones after major earthquakes. A borehole observatory in the fault that generated the M9.0 2011 Tohoku earthquake reveals a sequence of temperature pulses during the secondary aftershock sequence of an M7.3 aftershock. The pulses are attributed to fluid advection by a flow through a zone of transiently increased permeability. Directly after the M7.3 earthquake, the newly damaged fault zone is highly susceptible to further permeability enhancement, but ultimately heals within a month and becomes no longer as sensitive. The observation suggests that the newly damaged fault zone is more prone to fluid pulsing than would be expected based on the long-term permeability structure. Even longer term healing is seen inside the fault zone of the 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. The competition between damage and healing (or clogging and unclogging) results in dynamically controlled permeability, storage and hydraulic diffusivity. Recent measurements of in situ fault zone architecture at the 1-10 meter scale suggest that active fault zones often have hydraulic diffusivities near 10-2 m2/s. This uniformity is true even within the damage zone of the San Andreas fault where permeability and storage increases balance each other to achieve this value of diffusivity over a 400 m wide region. We speculate that fault zones may evolve to a preferred diffusivity in a dynamic equilibrium.

The Determination Method of Extreme Earthquake Disaster Area Based on the Dust Detection Result from GF-4 Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dou, A.; Ding, L.; Chen, M.; Wang, X.

2018-04-01

The remote sensing has played an important role in many earthquake emergencies by rapidly providing the building damage, road damage, landslide and other disaster information. The earthquake in the mountains often caused to the loosening of the mountains and the blowing of the dust in the epicentre area. The dust particles are more serious in the epicentre area than the other disaster area. Basis on the analysis of abnormal spectrum characteristics, the dust detection methods from medium and high resolutions satellite imagery are studied in order to determinate the extreme earthquake disaster area. The results indicate the distribution of extreme disaster can be acquired using the dust detection information from imagery, which can provide great help for disaster intensity assessment.

[Reduction of pressure sores during prone positioning of ventilated intensive care patients by the prone-head support system: a pilot study].

PubMed

Prebio, Michael; Katz-Papatheophilou, Elfriede; Heindl, Werner; Gelbmann, Herbert; Burghuber, Otto C

2005-02-01

Prone positioning in patients with adult respiratory distress syndrome is a well-known method to improve oxygenation. The aim of our study was to evaluate a new device for prone positioning, the prone-head support system (PHS system), with regard to reduction of cutaneous pressure sores. In a pilot study we randomized 8 patients with ARDS in two groups: 180 degrees standard prone positioning (group without mask) and prone positioning with the PHS system (group with mask). The PHS system consists of a facemask support, which is connected to an adapted air suspension bed. The patients of both groups were intermittently proned for several days. We evaluated the pressure sores on head and neck before turning the patients prone for the first time and after each period of prone positioning. We documented the quantity, the size, the type and the localization of the pressure sores. There was no significant difference in the mean duration of prone positioning (27.1+/-14.7 hours in the group with mask versus 24.5+/-18.7 h in the group without mask). In the group with mask there were 1.5+/-0.8 new pressure sores by each proning, whereas in the group without mask there were 2.37+/-1.6 new pressure sores, which was lower, but not significantly. The overall area of pressure sores (798 mm2 versus 3184 mm2, p=0.004), the area of pressure sores per patient (199.5+/-104.7 mm2 versus 796+/-478 mm2, p=0.03) and the increase of the area of pressure sores per proning (79.8+/-52.0 mm2 versus 398.0+/-214.3 mm2, p=0.004) were significantly lower in the group with mask in comparison to the group without mask. The lips were the most effected localization in both groups. The pressure sores in the group with mask were less severe and showed a homogenous distribution in comparison to the group without mask. Blisters dominated in the group with mask in comparison to erosions, necrosis and ulcers in the group without mask. The PHS system with its face mask is able to reduce the extent and the severity of pressure sores in patients ventilated in prone position. Controlled randomized studies with large study populations seem justified.

Bicentennial of the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquake sequence December 2011-2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2010-01-01

A series of earthquakes hit the New Madrid seismic zone of southeastern Missouri, northeastern Arkansas, and adjacent parts of Tennessee and Kentucky, in December 1811 to February 1812. Three earthquakes had a magnitude of 7.0 or greater. The first earthquake occurred December 16, 1811, at 2:15 a.m.; the second 9 a.m. on January 23, 1812; and the third on February 7, 1812, at 3:45 a.m. These three earthquakes were among the largest to strike North America since European settlement. The main shocks were followed by many hundreds of aftershocks that lasted for decades. Many of the aftershocks were major earthquakes themselves. The area that was strongly shaken by the three main shocks was 2-3 times as large as the strongly shaken area of the 1964 M9.2 Alaskan earthquake, and 10 times as large as that of the 1906 M7.8 San Francisco earthquake.

Culture of fire and environmental education in wildfire-prone areas: current situation in Spain

Treesearch

Clara Quesada-Fernández; Daniel Quesada-Fernández

2013-01-01

The culture of fire in the context of climate change has become a complicated relationship between people and natural areas. The interaction between people and fire is not a new issue. The use of fire by humans in most aspects of life, especially in rural areas, together with rapid and haphazard growth of structures in wildfire-prone areas, has led...

Source area of the 1858 earthquake swarm in the central Ryukyu Islands revealed by the observations of Father Louis Furet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oda, Takuma; Nakamura, Mamoru

2017-09-01

We estimated the location and magnitude of earthquakes constituting the 1858 earthquake swarm in the central Ryukyu Islands using the felt earthquakes recorded by Father Louis Furet who lived in Naha, Okinawa Island, in the middle of the nineteenth century. First, we estimated the JMA seismic intensity of the earthquakes by interpreting the words used to describe the shaking. Next, using the seismic intensity and shaking duration of the felt earthquakes, we estimated the epicentral distance and magnitude range of three earthquakes in the swarm. The results showed that the epicentral distances of the earthquakes were 20-250 km and that magnitudes ranged between 4.5 and 6.5, with a strong correlation between epicentral distance and magnitude. Since the rumblings accompanying some earthquakes in the swarm were heard from a northward direction, the swarm probably occurred to the north of Naha. The most likely source area for the 1858 swarm is the central Okinawa Trough, where a similar swarm event occurred in 1980. If the 1858 swarm occurred in the central Okinawa Trough, the estimated maximum magnitude would have reached 6-7. In contrast, if the 1858 swarm occurred in the vicinity of Amami Island, which is the second most likely candidate area, it would have produced a cluster of magnitude 7-8 earthquakes.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Prediction of earthquake-triggered landslide event sizes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, Anika; Havenith, Hans-Balder; Schlögel, Romy

2016-04-01

Seismically induced landslides are a major environmental effect of earthquakes, which may significantly contribute to related losses. Moreover, in paleoseismology landslide event sizes are an important proxy for the estimation of the intensity and magnitude of past earthquakes and thus allowing us to improve seismic hazard assessment over longer terms. Not only earthquake intensity, but also factors such as the fault characteristics, topography, climatic conditions and the geological environment have a major impact on the intensity and spatial distribution of earthquake induced landslides. We present here a review of factors contributing to earthquake triggered slope failures based on an "event-by-event" classification approach. The objective of this analysis is to enable the short-term prediction of earthquake triggered landslide event sizes in terms of numbers and size of the affected area right after an earthquake event occurred. Five main factors, 'Intensity', 'Fault', 'Topographic energy', 'Climatic conditions' and 'Surface geology' were used to establish a relationship to the number and spatial extend of landslides triggered by an earthquake. The relative weight of these factors was extracted from published data for numerous past earthquakes; topographic inputs were checked in Google Earth and through geographic information systems. Based on well-documented recent earthquakes (e.g. Haiti 2010, Wenchuan 2008) and on older events for which reliable extensive information was available (e.g. Northridge 1994, Loma Prieta 1989, Guatemala 1976, Peru 1970) the combination and relative weight of the factors was calibrated. The calibrated factor combination was then applied to more than 20 earthquake events for which landslide distribution characteristics could be cross-checked. One of our main findings is that the 'Fault' factor, which is based on characteristics of the fault, the surface rupture and its location with respect to mountain areas, has the most important contribution for the prediction of the number (and concentration) of induced landslides. This, for instance, partly explains why the Wenchuan 2008 earthquake triggered far more landslides than the Nepal 2015 earthquake. Moreover, according to our prediction the most severe earthquake-triggered landslide event would have been the Assam 1950 earthquake (India), followed by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Regarding the overall performance of our prediction method it can be seen that the number of landslides is overestimated for a series of earthquakes, while the size of the affected area is often underestimated. Especially for older events the incompleteness of the published catalogues can partly explain the overestimation of the landslide numbers. The underestimation of the affected area however is real and must be attributed to particular remote effects of earthquakes.

Long-period building response to earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olsen, A.H.; Aagaard, Brad T.; Heaton, T.H.

2008-01-01

This article reports a study of modeled, long-period building responses to ground-motion simulations of earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area. The earthquakes include the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake, a magnitude 7.8 simulation of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, and two hypothetical magnitude 7.8 northern San Andreas fault earthquakes with hypocenters north and south of San Francisco. We use the simulated ground motions to excite nonlinear models of 20-story, steel, welded moment-resisting frame (MRF) buildings. We consider MRF buildings designed with two different strengths and modeled with either ductile or brittle welds. Using peak interstory drift ratio (IDR) as a performance measure, the stiffer, higher strength building models outperform the equivalent more flexible, lower strength designs. The hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake with hypocenter north of San Francisco produces the most severe ground motions. In this simulation, the responses of the more flexible, lower strength building model with brittle welds exceed an IDR of 2.5% (that is, threaten life safety) on 54% of the urban area, compared to 4.6% of the urban area for the stiffer, higher strength building with ductile welds. We also use the simulated ground motions to predict the maximum isolator displacement of base-isolated buildings with linear, single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) models. For two existing 3-sec isolator systems near San Francisco, the design maximum displacement is 0.5 m, and our simulations predict isolator displacements for this type of system in excess of 0.5 m in many urban areas. This article demonstrates that a large, 1906-like earthquake could cause significant damage to long-period buildings in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Research in seismology and earthquake engineering in Venezuela

USGS Publications Warehouse

Urbina, L.; Grases, J.

1983-01-01

After the July 29, 1967, damaging earthquake (with a moderate magnitude of 6.3) caused widespread damage to the northern coastal area of Venezuela and to the Caracas Valley, the Venezuelan Government decided to establish a Presidential Earthquake Commission. This commission undertook the task of coordinating the efforts to study the after-effects of the earthquake. The July 1967 earthquake claimed numerous lives and caused extensive damage to the capital of Venezuela. In 1968, the U.S Geological Survey conducted a seismological field study in the northern coastal area and in the Caracas Valley of Venezuela. the objective was to study the area that sustained severe, moderate, and no damage to structures. A reported entitled Ground Amplification Studies in Earthquake Damage Areas: The Caracas Earthquake of 1967 documented, for the first time, short-period seismic wave ground-motion amplifications in the Caracas Valley. Figure 1 shows the area of severe damage in the Los Palos Grantes suburb and the correlation with depth of alluvium and the arabic numbers denote the ground amplification factor at each site in the area. the Venezuelan Government initiated many programs to study in detail the damage sustained and to investigate the ongoing construction practices. These actions motivated professionals in the academic, private, and Government sectors to develops further capabilities and self-sufficiency in the fields of engineering and seismology. Allocation of funds was made to assist in training professionals and technicians and in developing new seismological stations and new programs at the national level in earthquake engineering and seismology. A brief description of the ongoing programs in Venezuela is listed below. these programs are being performed by FUNVISIS and by other national organizations listed at the end of this article.   

Photointerpretation of Alaskan post-earthquake photography

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hackman, R.J.

1965-01-01

Aerial photographs taken after the March 27, 1964, Good Friday, Alaskan earthquake were examined stereoscopically to determine effects of the earthquake in areas remote from the towns, highways, and the railroad. The two thousand black and white photographs used in this study were taking in April, after the earthquake, by the U. S. Coast & Geodetic Survey and were generously supplied to the U. S. Geological Survey. Part of the photographs, at a scale of 1/24,000, provide blanket coverage of approximately 2,000 square miles of land area north and west of Prince William Sound, including parts of the mainland and some of the adjacent islands. The epicenter of the earthquake, near the head of Unakwik Inlet, is located in this area. The rest of the photographs, at scales ranging from 1/17,000 to 1/40,000, cover isolated strips of the coastline of the mainland and nearby islands in the general area of Prince William Sound. Figure 1 shows the area of new photo coverage used in this study. The objective of the study was to determine quickly whether geological features resulting from the earthquake, such as faults, changes in shoreline, cracks in surficial material, pressure ridges in lake ice, fractures in glaciers and lake ice, and rock slides and avalanches, might be identifiable by photointerpretation. The study was made without benefit of comparisons with older, or pre-earthquake photography, which was not readily available for immediate use.

Preliminary results on earthquake triggered landslides for the Haiti earthquake (January 2010)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees; Gorum, Tolga

2010-05-01

This study presents the first results on an analysis of the landslides triggered by the Ms 7.0 Haiti earthquake that occurred on January 12, 2010 in the boundary region of the Pacific Plate and the North American plate. The fault is a left lateral strike slip fault with a clear surface expression. According to the USGS earthquake information the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault system has not produced any major earthquake in the last 100 years, and historical earthquakes are known from 1860, 1770, 1761, 1751, 1684, 1673, and 1618, though none of these has been confirmed in the field as associated with this fault. We used high resolution satellite imagery available for the pre and post earthquake situations, which were made freely available for the response and rescue operations. We made an interpretation of all co-seismic landslides in the epicentral area. We conclude that the earthquake mainly triggered landslide in the northern slope of the fault-related valley and in a number of isolated area. The earthquake apparently didn't trigger many visible landslides within the slum areas on the slopes in the southern part of Port-au-Prince and Carrefour. We also used ASTER DEM information to relate the landslide occurrences with DEM derivatives.

The characteristic of the earthquake damage in Kyoto during the historical period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishiyama, Akihito

2017-04-01

The Kyoto city is located in the northern part of the Kyoto basin, central Japan and has a history of more than 1200 years. Kyoto has long been populated area with many buildings, and the center of politics, economics and culture of Japan. Due to historical large earthquakes, the Kyoto city was severely damaged such as collapses of buildings and human casualties. In the historical period, the Kyoto city has experienced six damaging large earthquake of 976, 1185, 1449, 1596, 1662 and 1830. Among them, Kyoto has experienced three damaging large earthquakes from the end of the 16th century to the middle of the 19th century, when the urban area was being expanded. All of these earthquakes are considered to be not the earthquakes in the Kyoto basin but inland earthquakes occurred in the surrounding area. The earthquake damage in Kyoto during the historical period is strongly controlled by ground conditions and earthquakes resistance of buildings rather than distance from the estimated source fault. To better estimate seismic intensity based on building damage, it is necessary to consider the state of buildings (e.g., elapsed years since established, histories of repairs and/or reinforcements, building structures) as well as the strength of ground shakings. By considering the strength of buildings at the time of an earthquake occurrence, the seismic intensity distribution due to historical large earthquakes can be estimated with higher reliability than before. The estimated seismic intensity distribution map for such historical earthquakes can be utilized for developing the strong ground motion prediction in the Kyoto basin.

The Parkfield earthquake prediction of October 1992; the emergency services response

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andrews, R.

1992-01-01

The science of earthquake prediction is interesting and worthy of support. In many respects the ultimate payoff of earthquake prediction or earthquake forecasting is how the information can be used to enhance public safety and public preparedness. This is a particularly important issue here in California where we have such a high level of seismic risk historically, and currently, as a consequence of activity in 1989 in the San Francisco Bay Area, in Humboldt County in April of this year (1992), and in southern California in the Landers-Big Bear area in late June of this year (1992). We are currently very concerned about the possibility of a major earthquake, one or more, happening close to one of our metropolitan areas. Within that context, the Parkfield experiment becomes very important. 

Landscape scale prediction of earthquake-induced landsliding based on seismological and geomorphological parameters.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marc, O.; Hovius, N.; Meunier, P.; Rault, C.

2017-12-01

In tectonically active areas, earthquakes are an important trigger of landslides with significant impact on hillslopes and river evolutions. However, detailed prediction of landslides locations and properties for a given earthquakes remain difficult.In contrast we propose, landscape scale, analytical prediction of bulk coseismic landsliding, that is total landslide area and volume (Marc et al., 2016a) as well as the regional area within which most landslide must distribute (Marc et al., 2017). The prediction is based on a limited number of seismological (seismic moment, source depth) and geomorphological (landscape steepness, threshold acceleration) parameters, and therefore could be implemented in landscape evolution model aiming at engaging with erosion dynamics at the scale of the seismic cycle. To assess the model we have compiled and normalized estimates of total landslide volume, total landslide area and regional area affected by landslides for 40, 17 and 83 earthquakes, respectively. We have found that low landscape steepness systematically leads to overprediction of the total area and volume of landslides. When this effect is accounted for, the model is able to predict within a factor of 2 the landslide areas and associated volumes for about 70% of the cases in our databases. The prediction of regional area affected do not require a calibration for the landscape steepness and gives a prediction within a factor of 2 for 60% of the database. For 7 out of 10 comprehensive inventories we show that our prediction compares well with the smallest region around the fault containing 95% of the total landslide area. This is a significant improvement on a previously published empirical expression based only on earthquake moment.Some of the outliers seems related to exceptional rock mass strength in the epicentral area or shaking duration and other seismic source complexities ignored by the model. Applications include prediction on the mass balance of earthquakes and this model predicts that only earthquakes generated on a narrow range of fault sizes may cause more erosion than uplift (Marc et al., 2016b), while very large earthquakes are expected to always build topography. The model could also be used to physically calibrate hillslope erosion or perturbations to river network within landscape evolution model.

Lessons learned from the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake: Building damages and behavior of seismically isolated buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morita, Keiko; Takayama, Mineo

2017-10-01

Powerful earthquakes stuck Kumamoto and Oita Prefectures in Kyushu, Japan. It began with the Magnitude 6.5 foreshock at 21:26 JST 14 April, followed by the Magnitude 7.3 mainshock at 1:25 JST 16 April, 2016. The sequence earthquakes also involved more than 1700 perceptible earthquakes as of 13 June. The entire sequence was named the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Thousands of buildings and many roads were damaged, and landslides occurred. The Japanese building standard law is revised in 1981. Structural damages were concentrated on buildings constructed prior to 1981. The area of Mashiki and Southern Aso were most badly affected, especially wooden houses extremely damaged. In Japan, Prof. Hideyuki Tada (title at the time) undertook research on laminated rubber bearings in 1978, and put it into practical use in 1981. The single family house at Yachiyodai, Chiba Prefecture is completed in 1983, it's the first seismically isolated building which is installed laminated rubber bearings in Japan. Afterward, this system is gradually adopted to mainly office buildings, like a research laboratory, a hospital, a computer center and other offices. In the 1994 Northridge earthquake, the 1995 Kobe earthquake and 2011 Tohoku earthquake, seismically isolated buildings improve these good performances, and recently number of the buildings have increased, mainly high risk area of earthquakes. Many people believed that Kumamoto was a low risk area. But there were 24 seismically isolated buildings in Kumamoto Prefecture at the time. The seismically isolated buildings indicated excellent performances during the earthquakes. They protected people, buildings and other important facilities from damages caused by the earthquake. The purpose of this paper is to discuss lessons learned from the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake and behavior of seismically isolated buildings in the earthquake.

Repeating microseismicity in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, Korea, and its implications for the seismic hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, K.; Kim, W.; Kang, S.; Ryoo, Y.; Park, Y.; Kyung, J.

2013-12-01

An earthquake with magnitude 3.0 occurred in the Seoul Metropolitan Capital Area (SNCA), Korea, on 9 February 2010. The earthquake attracted much attention and raised concerns about seismic hazards and risks in the Korea Peninsula, in particular, to the SNCA. SNCA includes the Seoul and Incheon metropolitans and most of the Gyeonggi province. It has a population of 24.5 million and is one of the largest metropolitan areas in the world. We applied waveform correlation detector to 2007-2011 continuously recorded seismic data to identify repeating earthquakes. We identify 9 micro-earthquakes during 2007-2010 periods which are not reported in the KNSN bulletin because their magnitudes are too small. Estimated magnitudes using amplitude ratios measured at the station SEO indicate the smallest event detected by the waveform cross correlation technique in the study is as low as 0.19. The number of events for our interpretation becomes 11 including 2 previously reported events and 9 newly identified ones. All of them occur in a very small area. While there are historic documents reporting earthquakes in the SNCA, repeating earthquakes or clustered seismicity from the instrumental earthquake record have not reported before. We have determined the focal mechanism solution for the representative event (9 February 2010, ML 3.0) using first motions. The preferred focal mechanism solution for the representative event is the WNW-ESE striking fault, which are consistent with the precisely determined earthquake hypocenter distribution. The orientation of P-axis is also consistent with the results in the previous studies of stress orientation in and around the Korean peninsula. The new list of earthquakes in this study is far from any complete, although we have adopted a well-established method to detect earthquakes. Considering the low seismicity, extensive efforts to monitor the micro-seismicity are definitely required to obtain comprehensive picture of the seismicity pattern in the area.

Crustal deformation associated with an M8.1 earthquake in the Solomon Islands, detected by ALOS/PALSAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyagi, Yousuke; Ozawa, Taku; Shimada, Masanobu

2009-10-01

On April 1, 2007 (UTC), a large Mw 8.1 interplate earthquake struck the Solomon Islands subduction zone where complicated tectonics result from the subduction of four plates. Extensive ground movements and a large tsunami occurred in the epicentral area causing severe damage over a wide area. Using ALOS/PALSAR data and the DInSAR technique, we detected crustal deformation exceeding 2 m in islands close to the epicenter. A slip distribution of the inferred seismic fault was estimated using geodetic information derived from DInSAR processing and field investigations. The result indicates large slip areas around the hypocenter and the centroid. It is possible that the largest slip area is related to subduction of the plate boundary between the Woodlark and Australian plates. A small slip area between those large slip areas may indicate weak coupling due to thermal activity related to volcanic activity on Simbo Island. The 2007 earthquake struck an area where large earthquake has not occurred since 1970. Most of this seismic gap was filled by the 2007 events, however a small seismic gap still remains in the southeastern region of the 2007 earthquake.

Chapter F. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Marina District

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Rourke, Thomas D.

1992-01-01

During the earthquake, a total land area of about 4,300 km2 was shaken with seismic intensities that can cause significant damage to structures. The area of the Marina District of San Francisco is only 4.0 km2--less than 0.1 percent of the area most strongly affected by the earthquake--but its significance with respect to engineering, seismology, and planning far outstrips its proportion of shaken terrain and makes it a centerpiece for lessons learned from the earthquake. The Marina District provides perhaps the most comprehensive case history of seismic effects at a specific site developed for any earthquake. The reports assembled in this chapter, which provide an account of these seismic effects, constitute a unique collection of studies on site, as well as infrastructure and societal, response that cover virtually all aspects of the earthquake, ranging from incoming ground waves to the outgoing airwaves used for emergency communication. The Marina District encompasses the area bounded by San Francisco Bay on the north, the Presidio on the west, and Lombard Street and Van Ness Avenue on the south and east, respectively. Nearly all of the earthquake damage in the Marina District, however, occurred within a considerably smaller area of about 0.75 km2, bounded by San Francisco Bay and Baker, Chestnut, and Buchanan Streets. At least five major aspects of earthquake response in the Marina District are covered by the reports in this chapter: (1) dynamic site response, (2) soil liquefaction, (3) lifeline performance, (4) building performance, and (5) emergency services.

Controls of repeating earthquakes' location from a- and b- values imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, K. H.; Kawamura, M.

2017-12-01

The locations where creeping and locked fault areas abut have commonly found to be delineated by the foci of small repeating earthquakes (REs). REs not only represent the finer structure of high creep-rate location, they also function as fault slip-rate indicators. Knowledge of the expected location of REs therefore, is crucial for fault deformation monitoring and assessment of earthquake potential. However, a precise description of factors determining REs locations is lacking. To explore where earthquakes tend to recur, we statistically investigated repeating earthquake catalogs and background seismicity from different regions including six fault segments in California and Taiwan. We show that the location of repeating earthquakes can be mapped using the spatial distribution of the seismic a- and b-values obtained from the background seismicity. Molchan's error diagram statistically confirmed that repeating earthquakes occur within areas with high a-values (2.8-3.8) and high b-values (0.9-1.1) on both strike-slip and thrust fault segments. However, no significant association held true for fault segments with more complicated geometry or for wider areas with a complex fault network. The productivity of small earthquakes responsible for high a- and b-values may thus be the most important factor controlling the location of repeating earthquakes. We hypothesize that, given that the deformation conditions within a fault zone are suitable for a planar fault plane, the location of repeating earthquakes can be best described by a-value 3 and b-value 1. This feature of a- and b-values may be useful for foresee the location of REs for measuring creep rate at depth. Further investigation of REs-rich areas may allow testing of this hypothesis.

Geological evaluation of Radarsat data: Plans and preliminary results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Berger, Z.; Irving, R.E.L.; Thompson, M.D.

1996-01-01

Radarsat, the Canadian synthetic aperture radar satellite to be launched in September 1995, is anticipated to become the prime active imaging system for geological mapping of tropical areas and other humid areas. Radarsat will provide adequate spatial resolution, stereo capabilities and relatively low incidence angles to reduce the geometric distortions of geological structures due to layover effects. As part of the Radarsat User Development Program of the Canadian Space Agency, it has been proposed to conduct an evaluation program of the terrain surface mapping capabilities of Radarsat and its application to hydrocarbon exploration, coal development, geological hazard mapping and environmentalmore » monitoring. The evaluation program will be carried out in three test sites: (1) Western Canadian Basin (a mature exploration area in Alberta with a range of geology/topography), (2) Andean Foothills (frontier tropical sedimentary basins in Columbia representing prototype active exploration areas), and (3) Philippine volcanic region (frontier tropical earthquake-prone geohazard area of Philippine wrench fault system on Luzon Island, in a typical structural setting of the sedimentary basins of southeast Asia). The paper will include the project plans, illustrate the structural setting and the relationships between surface and subsurface structures for each of the three test sites, and present a preliminary evaluation of simulated and actual Radarsat data as compared to data from ERS-1, airborne SAR, Landsat Thematic Mapper and SPOT. The preliminary application of Radarsat for exploration will be discussed.« less

Geological evaluation of Radarsat data: Plans and preliminary results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Berger, Z.; Irving, R.E.L.; Thompson, M.D.

1996-12-31

Radarsat, the Canadian synthetic aperture radar satellite to be launched in September 1995, is anticipated to become the prime active imaging system for geological mapping of tropical areas and other humid areas. Radarsat will provide adequate spatial resolution, stereo capabilities and relatively low incidence angles to reduce the geometric distortions of geological structures due to layover effects. As part of the Radarsat User Development Program of the Canadian Space Agency, it has been proposed to conduct an evaluation program of the terrain surface mapping capabilities of Radarsat and its application to hydrocarbon exploration, coal development, geological hazard mapping and environmentalmore » monitoring. The evaluation program will be carried out in three test sites: (1) Western Canadian Basin (a mature exploration area in Alberta with a range of geology/topography), (2) Andean Foothills (frontier tropical sedimentary basins in Columbia representing prototype active exploration areas), and (3) Philippine volcanic region (frontier tropical earthquake-prone geohazard area of Philippine wrench fault system on Luzon Island, in a typical structural setting of the sedimentary basins of southeast Asia). The paper will include the project plans, illustrate the structural setting and the relationships between surface and subsurface structures for each of the three test sites, and present a preliminary evaluation of simulated and actual Radarsat data as compared to data from ERS-1, airborne SAR, Landsat Thematic Mapper and SPOT. The preliminary application of Radarsat for exploration will be discussed.« less

Earthquake and tsunami forecasts: Relation of slow slip events to subsequent earthquake rupture

PubMed Central

Dixon, Timothy H.; Jiang, Yan; Malservisi, Rocco; McCaffrey, Robert; Voss, Nicholas; Protti, Marino; Gonzalez, Victor

2014-01-01

The 5 September 2012 Mw 7.6 earthquake on the Costa Rica subduction plate boundary followed a 62-y interseismic period. High-precision GPS recorded numerous slow slip events (SSEs) in the decade leading up to the earthquake, both up-dip and down-dip of seismic rupture. Deeper SSEs were larger than shallower ones and, if characteristic of the interseismic period, release most locking down-dip of the earthquake, limiting down-dip rupture and earthquake magnitude. Shallower SSEs were smaller, accounting for some but not all interseismic locking. One SSE occurred several months before the earthquake, but changes in Mohr–Coulomb failure stress were probably too small to trigger the earthquake. Because many SSEs have occurred without subsequent rupture, their individual predictive value is limited, but taken together they released a significant amount of accumulated interseismic strain before the earthquake, effectively defining the area of subsequent seismic rupture (rupture did not occur where slow slip was common). Because earthquake magnitude depends on rupture area, this has important implications for earthquake hazard assessment. Specifically, if this behavior is representative of future earthquake cycles and other subduction zones, it implies that monitoring SSEs, including shallow up-dip events that lie offshore, could lead to accurate forecasts of earthquake magnitude and tsunami potential. PMID:25404327

Earthquake and tsunami forecasts: relation of slow slip events to subsequent earthquake rupture.

PubMed

Dixon, Timothy H; Jiang, Yan; Malservisi, Rocco; McCaffrey, Robert; Voss, Nicholas; Protti, Marino; Gonzalez, Victor

2014-12-02

The 5 September 2012 M(w) 7.6 earthquake on the Costa Rica subduction plate boundary followed a 62-y interseismic period. High-precision GPS recorded numerous slow slip events (SSEs) in the decade leading up to the earthquake, both up-dip and down-dip of seismic rupture. Deeper SSEs were larger than shallower ones and, if characteristic of the interseismic period, release most locking down-dip of the earthquake, limiting down-dip rupture and earthquake magnitude. Shallower SSEs were smaller, accounting for some but not all interseismic locking. One SSE occurred several months before the earthquake, but changes in Mohr-Coulomb failure stress were probably too small to trigger the earthquake. Because many SSEs have occurred without subsequent rupture, their individual predictive value is limited, but taken together they released a significant amount of accumulated interseismic strain before the earthquake, effectively defining the area of subsequent seismic rupture (rupture did not occur where slow slip was common). Because earthquake magnitude depends on rupture area, this has important implications for earthquake hazard assessment. Specifically, if this behavior is representative of future earthquake cycles and other subduction zones, it implies that monitoring SSEs, including shallow up-dip events that lie offshore, could lead to accurate forecasts of earthquake magnitude and tsunami potential.

Volcano-earthquake interaction at Mauna Loa volcano, Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walter, Thomas R.; Amelung, Falk

2006-05-01

The activity at Mauna Loa volcano, Hawaii, is characterized by eruptive fissures that propagate into the Southwest Rift Zone (SWRZ) or into the Northeast Rift Zone (NERZ) and by large earthquakes at the basal decollement fault. In this paper we examine the historic eruption and earthquake catalogues, and we test the hypothesis that the events are interconnected in time and space. Earthquakes in the Kaoiki area occur in sequence with eruptions from the NERZ, and earthquakes in the Kona and Hilea areas occur in sequence with eruptions from the SWRZ. Using three-dimensional numerical models, we demonstrate that elastic stress transfer can explain the observed volcano-earthquake interaction. We examine stress changes due to typical intrusions and earthquakes. We find that intrusions change the Coulomb failure stress along the decollement fault so that NERZ intrusions encourage Kaoiki earthquakes and SWRZ intrusions encourage Kona and Hilea earthquakes. On the other hand, earthquakes decompress the magma chamber and unclamp part of the Mauna Loa rift zone, i.e., Kaoiki earthquakes encourage NERZ intrusions, whereas Kona and Hilea earthquakes encourage SWRZ intrusions. We discuss how changes of the static stress field affect the occurrence of earthquakes as well as the occurrence, location, and volume of dikes and of associated eruptions and also the lava composition and fumarolic activity.

Aftershock seismicity and Tectonic Setting of the 16 September 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lange, Dietrich; Geersen, Jacob; Barrientos, Sergio; Moreno, Marcos; Grevemeyer, Ingo; Contreras-Reyes, Eduardo; Kopp, Heidrun

2016-04-01

Powerful subduction zone earthquakes rupture thousands of square kilometers along continental margins but at certain locations earthquake rupture terminates. On 16 September 2015 the Mw. 8.3 Illapel earthquake ruptured a 200 km long stretch of the Central Chilean subduction zone, triggering a tsunami and causing significant damage. Here we analyze the spatial pattern of coseismic rupture and the temporal and spatial pattern of local seismicity for aftershocks and foreshocks in relation to the tectonic setting in the earthquake area. Aftershock seismicity surrounds the rupture area in lateral and downdip direction. For the first 24 hours following the mainshock we observe aftershock migration to both lateral directions with velocities of approximately 2.5 and 5 km/h. At the southern earthquake boundary aftershocks cluster around individual subducted seamounts located on the prolongation of the downthrusting Juan Fernández Ridge indicating stress transfer from the main rupture area. In the northern part of the rupture area a deeper band of local seismicity is observed indicating an alternation of seismic to aseismic behavior of the plate interface in downdip direction. This aseismic region at ~30 km depth that is also observed before the Illapel 2015 earthquake is likely controlled by the intersection of the continental Moho with the subducting slab.

Continuous forearc extension following the 2010 Maule megathrust earthquake: InSAR and seismic observations and modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bie, L.; Rietbrock, A.; Agurto-Detzel, H.

2017-12-01

The forearc region in subduction zones deforms in response to relative movement on the plate interface throughout the earthquake cycle. Megathrust earthquakes may alter the stress field in the forearc areas from compression to extension, resulting in normal faulting earthquakes. Recent cases include the 2011 Iwaki sequence following the Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan, and 2010 Pichilemu sequence after the Maule earthquake in central Chile. Given the closeness of these normal fault events to residential areas, and their shallow depth, they may pose equivalent, if not higher, seismic risk in comparison to earthquakes on the megathrust. Here, we focus on the 2010 Pichilemu sequence following the Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake in central Chile, where the Nazca Plate subducts beneath the South American Plate. Previous studies have clearly delineated the Pichilemu normal fault structure. However, it is not clear whether the Pichilemu events fully released the extensional stress exerted by the Maule mainshock, or the forearc area is still controlled by extensional stress. A 3 months displacement time-series, constructed by radar satellite images, clearly shows continuous aseismic deformation along the Pichilemu fault. Kinematic inversion reveals peak afterslip of 25 cm at shallow depth, equivalent to a Mw 5.4 earthquake. We identified a Mw 5.3 earthquake 2 months after the Pichilemu sequence from both geodetic and seismic observations. Nonlinear inversion from geodetic data suggests that this event ruptured a normal fault conjugate to the Pichilemu fault, at a depth of 4.5 km, consistent with the result obtained from independent moment tensor inversion. We relocated aftershocks in the Pichilemu area using relative arrivals time and a 3D velocity model. The spatial correlation between geodetic deformation and aftershocks reveals three additional areas which may have experienced aseismic slip at depth. Both geodetic displacement and aftershock distribution show a conjugated L-shape feature. This pattern coincides with weak zones depicted by high vp/vs and low vs in the upper crust of this region, suggesting fluid control of seismic and aseismic activities in the Pichilemu area.

Application of a time probabilistic approach to seismic landslide hazard estimates in Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajabi, A. M.; Del Gaudio, V.; Capolongo, D.; Khamehchiyan, M.; Mahdavifar, M. R.

2009-04-01

Iran is a country located in a tectonic active belt and is prone to earthquake and related phenomena. In the recent years, several earthquakes caused many fatalities and damages to facilities, e.g. the Manjil (1990), Avaj (2002), Bam (2003) and Firuzabad-e-Kojur (2004) earthquakes. These earthquakes generated many landslides. For instance, catastrophic landslides triggered by the Manjil Earthquake (Ms = 7.7) in 1990 buried the village of Fatalak, killed more than 130 peoples and cut many important road and other lifelines, resulting in major economic disruption. In general, earthquakes in Iran have been concentrated in two major zones with different seismicity characteristics: one is the region of Alborz and Central Iran and the other is the Zagros Orogenic Belt. Understanding where seismically induced landslides are most likely to occur is crucial in reducing property damage and loss of life in future earthquakes. For this purpose a time probabilistic approach for earthquake-induced landslide hazard at regional scale, proposed by Del Gaudio et al. (2003), has been applied to the whole Iranian territory to provide the basis of hazard estimates. This method consists in evaluating the recurrence of seismically induced slope failure conditions inferred from the Newmark's model. First, by adopting Arias Intensity to quantify seismic shaking and using different Arias attenuation relations for Alborz - Central Iran and Zagros regions, well-established methods of seismic hazard assessment, based on the Cornell (1968) method, were employed to obtain the occurrence probabilities for different levels of seismic shaking in a time interval of interest (50 year). Then, following Jibson (1998), empirical formulae specifically developed for Alborz - Central Iran and Zagros, were used to represent, according to the Newmark's model, the relation linking Newmark's displacement Dn to Arias intensity Ia and to slope critical acceleration ac. These formulae were employed to evaluate the slope critical acceleration (Ac)x for which a prefixed probability exists that seismic shaking would result in a Dn value equal to a threshold x whose exceedence would cause landslide triggering. The obtained ac values represent the minimum slope resistance required to keep the probability of seismic-landslide triggering within the prefixed value. In particular we calculated the spatial distribution of (Ac)x for x thresholds of 10 and 2 cm in order to represent triggering conditions for coherent slides (e.g., slumps, block slides, slow earth flows) and disrupted slides (e.g., rock falls, rock slides, rock avalanches), respectively. Then we produced a probabilistic national map that shows the spatial distribution of (Ac)10 and (Ac)2, for a 10% probability of exceedence in 50 year, which is a significant level of hazard equal to that commonly used for building codes. The spatial distribution of the calculated (Ac)xvalues can be compared with the in situ actual ac values of specific slopes to estimate whether these slopes have a significant probability of failing under seismic action in the future. As example of possible application of this kind of time probabilistic map to hazard estimates, we compared the values obtained for the Manjil region with a GIS map providing spatial distribution of estimated ac values in the same region. The spatial distribution of slopes characterized by ac < (Ac)10 was then compared with the spatial distribution of the major landslides of coherent type triggered by the Manjil earthquake. This comparison provides indications on potential, problems and limits of the experimented approach for the study area. References Cornell, C.A., 1968: Engineering seismic risk analysis, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 58, 1583-1606. Del Gaudio V., Wasowski J., & Pierri P., 2003: An approach to time probabilistic evaluation of seismically-induced landslide hazard. Bull Seism. Soc. Am., 93, 557-569. Jibson, R.W., E.L. Harp and J.A. Michael, 1998: A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps: an example from the Los Angeles, California, area, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 98-113, Golden, Colorado, 17 pp.

Wireless technologies for the monitoring of strategic civil infrastructures: an ambient vibration test of the Faith Bridge, Istanbul, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Picozzi, M.; Milkereit, C.; Zulfikar, C.; Ditommaso, R.; Erdik, M.; Safak, E.; Fleming, K.; Ozel, O.; Zschau, J.; Apaydin, N.

2008-12-01

The monitoring of strategic civil infrastructures to ensure their structural integrity is a task of major importance, especially in earthquake-prone areas. Classical approaches to such monitoring are based on visual inspections and the use of wired systems. While the former has the drawback that the structure is only superficially examined and discontinuously in time, wired systems are relatively expensive and time consuming to install. Today, however, wireless systems represent an advanced, easily installed and operated tool to be used for monitoring purposes, resulting in a wide and interesting range of possible applications. Within the framework of the earthquake early warning projects SAFER (Seismic eArly warning For EuRope) and EDIM (Earthquake Disaster Information systems for the Marmara Sea region, Turkey), new low-cost wireless sensors with the capability to automatically rearrange their communications scheme are being developed. The reduced sensitivity of these sensors, arising from the use of low-cost components, is compensated by the possibility of deploying high-density self-organizing networks performing real-time data acquisition and analysis. Thanks to the developed system's versatility, it has been possible to perform an experimental ambient vibration test with a network of 24 sensors on the Fatih Sultan Mehmet Bridge, Istanbul (Turkey), a gravity-anchored suspension bridge spanning the Bosphorus Strait with distance between its towers of 1090 m. Preliminary analysis of the data has demonstrated that the main modal properties of the bridge can be retrieved, and may therefore be regularly re-evaluated as part of a long-term monitoring program. Using a multi-hop communications technique, data could be exchanged among groups of sensors over distances of a few hundred meters. Thus, the test showed that, although more work is required to optimize the communication parameters, the performance of the network offers encouragement for us to follow this research direction in developing wireless systems for the monitoring of civil infrastructures.

Seismic Tomography of the Sacramento -- San Joaquin River Delta: Joint P-wave/Gravity and Ambient Noise Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teel, Alexander C.

The Sacramento -- San Joaquin River Delta (SSJRD) is an area that has been identified as having high seismic hazard but has resolution gaps in the seismic velocity models of the area due to a scarcity of local seismic stations and earthquakes. I present new three-dimensional (3D) P-wave velocity (Vp) and S-wave velocity (Vs) models for the SSJRD which fill in the sampling gaps of previous studies. I have created a new 3D seismic velocity model for the SSJRD, addressing an identified need for higher resolution velocity models in the region, using a new joint gravity/body-wave tomography algorithm. I am able to fit gravity and arrival-time residuals jointly using an empirical density-velocity relationship to take advantage of existing gravity data in the region to help fill in the resolution gaps of previous velocity models in the area. I find that the method enhances the ability to resolve the relief of basin structure relative to seismic-only tomography at this location. I find the depth to the basement to be the greatest in the northwest portion of the SSJRD and that there is a plateau in the basement structure beneath the southeast portion of the SSJRD. From my findings I infer that the SSJRD may be prone to focusing effects and basin amplification of ground motion. A 3D, Vs model for the SSJRD and surrounding area was created using ambient noise tomography. The empirical Green's functions are in good agreement with published cross-correlations and match earthquake waveforms sharing similar paths. The group velocity and shear velocity maps are in good agreement with published regional scale models. The new model maps velocity values on a local scale and successfully recovers the basin structure beneath the Delta. From this Vs model I find the maximum depth of the basin to reach approximately 15 km with the Great Valley Ophiolite body rising to a depth of 10 km east of the SSJRD. We consider our basement-depth estimates from the Vp model to be more robust than from the Vs model.

Earthquakes Magnitude Predication Using Artificial Neural Network in Northern Red Sea Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alarifi, A. S.; Alarifi, N. S.

2009-12-01

Earthquakes are natural hazards that do not happen very often, however they may cause huge losses in life and property. Early preparation for these hazards is a key factor to reduce their damage and consequence. Since early ages, people tried to predicate earthquakes using simple observations such as strange or a typical animal behavior. In this paper, we study data collected from existing earthquake catalogue to give better forecasting for future earthquakes. The 16000 events cover a time span of 1970 to 2009, the magnitude range from greater than 0 to less than 7.2 while the depth range from greater than 0 to less than 100km. We propose a new artificial intelligent predication system based on artificial neural network, which can be used to predicate the magnitude of future earthquakes in northern Red Sea area including the Sinai Peninsula, the Gulf of Aqaba, and the Gulf of Suez. We propose a feed forward new neural network model with multi-hidden layers to predicate earthquakes occurrences and magnitudes in northern Red Sea area. Although there are similar model that have been published before in different areas, to our best knowledge this is the first neural network model to predicate earthquake in northern Red Sea area. Furthermore, we present other forecasting methods such as moving average over different interval, normally distributed random predicator, and uniformly distributed random predicator. In addition, we present different statistical methods and data fitting such as linear, quadratic, and cubic regression. We present a details performance analyses of the proposed methods for different evaluation metrics. The results show that neural network model provides higher forecast accuracy than other proposed methods. The results show that neural network achieves an average absolute error of 2.6% while an average absolute error of 3.8%, 7.3% and 6.17% for moving average, linear regression and cubic regression, respectively. In this work, we show an analysis of earthquakes data in northern Red Sea area for different statistics parameters such as correlation, mean, standard deviation, and other. This analysis is to provide a deep understand of the Seismicity of the area, and existing patterns.

Source Model of Huge Subduction Earthquakes for Strong Ground Motion Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwata, T.; Asano, K.

2012-12-01

It is a quite important issue for strong ground motion prediction to construct the source model of huge subduction earthquakes. Irikura and Miyake (2001, 2011) proposed the characterized source model for strong ground motion prediction, which consists of plural strong ground motion generation area (SMGA, Miyake et al., 2003) patches on the source fault. We obtained the SMGA source models for many events using the empirical Green's function method and found the SMGA size has an empirical scaling relationship with seismic moment. Therefore, the SMGA size can be assumed from that empirical relation under giving the seismic moment for anticipated earthquakes. Concerning to the setting of the SMGAs position, the information of the fault segment is useful for inland crustal earthquakes. For the 1995 Kobe earthquake, three SMGA patches are obtained and each Nojima, Suma, and Suwayama segment respectively has one SMGA from the SMGA modeling (e.g. Kamae and Irikura, 1998). For the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, Asano and Iwata (2012) estimated the SMGA source model and obtained four SMGA patches on the source fault. Total SMGA area follows the extension of the empirical scaling relationship between the seismic moment and the SMGA area for subduction plate-boundary earthquakes, and it shows the applicability of the empirical scaling relationship for the SMGA. The positions of two SMGAs are in Miyagi-Oki segment and those other two SMGAs are in Fukushima-Oki and Ibaraki-Oki segments, respectively. Asano and Iwata (2012) also pointed out that all SMGAs are corresponding to the historical source areas of 1930's. Those SMGAs do not overlap the huge slip area in the shallower part of the source fault which estimated by teleseismic data, long-period strong motion data, and/or geodetic data during the 2011 mainshock. This fact shows the huge slip area does not contribute to strong ground motion generation (10-0.1s). The information of the fault segment in the subduction zone, or historical earthquake source area is also applicable for the construction of SMGA settings for strong ground motion prediction for future earthquakes.

Areas of slip of recent earthquakes in the Mexican subduction zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hjorleifsdottir, V.; Sánchez-Reyes, H. S.; Singh, S.; Ji, C.; Iglesias, A.; Perez-Campos, X.

2012-12-01

The Mexican subduction zone is unusual: the width of the seismogenic zone is relatively narrow and a large portion of the co-seismic slip generally occurs below the coast, ~ 45 to 80 km from the trench. The earthquake recurrence interval is relatively short and almost the entire length of the zone has experienced a large (Mw≥7.4) earthquake in the last 100 years (Singh et al., 1981). In this study we present detailed analysis of the areas of significant slip during several recent (last 20 years) large earthquakes in the Mexican subduction zone. The most recent earthquake of 20 March 2012 (Mw7.4) occurred near the Guerrero/Oaxaca border. The slip was concentrated on the plate interface below land and the epicentral PGAs ranged between 0.2 and 0.7g. The updip portion of the plate interface had previously broken during the 25 Feb 1996 earthquake (Mw7.1), which was a slow earthquake and produced anomalously low PGAs (Iglesias et al., 2003). This indicates that in this region the area close to the trench is at least partially locked, with some earthquakes breaking the down-dip portion of the interface and others rupturing the up-dip portion. The Jalisco/Colima segment of the subduction zone seems to behave in a similar fashion. The 9 October 1995 (Mw 8.0) earthquake generated small accelerations relative to its size. The energy to moment ratio, E0/M0, is 4.2e-6 (Pérez-Campos, Singh and Beroza, 2003), a value similar to the Feb, 1996 earthquake. This value is low compared to other thrust events in the region. The earthquake also had the largest (Ms-Mw) disparity along the Mexican subduction zone, 7.4 vs 8.0. The event produced relatively large tsunami. On the contrary, the 3 June 1932 earthquake (Ms8.2, Mw8.0), that is believed to have broken the same segment of the subduction zone, appears to be "normal." Based on the available evidence, it may be concluded that the 1932 event broke a deeper patch of the plate interface relative to the 1995 event. The mode of rupture in the subduction zone between the two areas mentioned above is not known. This part of the subduction zone includes the rupture area of the 1985 Michoacán earthquake (Mw8.0) and the "Guerrero Gap" which is a section of the subduction zone that has not had a large earthquake in the last 100 years. The downdip and updip patches on the plate interface, which, generally, rupture independently may slip during one great earthquake. This possibility must be accounted for in the estimation of maximum-magnitude earthquake along the subduction zone.

Investigating Lushan Earthquake Victims' Individual Behavior Response and Rescue Organization.

PubMed

Kang, Peng; Lv, Yipeng; Deng, Qiangyu; Liu, Yuan; Zhang, Yi; Liu, Xu; Zhang, Lulu

2017-12-11

Research concerning the impact of earthquake victims' individual behavior and its association with earthquake-related injuries is lacking. This study examined this relationship along with effectiveness of earthquake rescue measures. The six most severely destroyed townships during the Lushan earthquake were examined; 28 villages and three earthquake victims' settlement camp areas were selected as research areas. Inclusion criteria comprised living in Lushan county for a longtime, living in Lushan county during the 2013 Lushan earthquake, and having one's home destroyed. Earthquake victims with an intellectual disability or communication problems were excluded. The earthquake victims (N (number) = 5165, male = 2396) completed a questionnaire (response rate: 94.7%). Among them, 209 were injured (5.61%). Teachers (p < 0.0001, OR (odds ratios) = 3.33) and medical staff (p = 0.001, OR = 4.35) were more vulnerable to the earthquake than were farmers. Individual behavior was directly related to injuries, such as the first reaction after earthquake and fear. There is an obvious connection between earthquake-related injury and individual behavior characteristics. It is strongly suggested that victims receive mental health support from medical practitioners and the government to minimize negative effects. The initial reaction after an earthquake also played a vital role in victims' trauma; therefore, earthquake-related experience and education may prevent injuries. Self-aid and mutual help played key roles in emergency, medical rescue efforts.

Crustal deformation at the terminal stage before earthquake occurrence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, C. H.; Meng, G.; Su, X.

2016-12-01

GPS data retrieved from 300 stations in China are used in this work to study stressed areas during earthquake preparation periods. Surface deformation data are derived by using the standard method and are smoothed by a temporal moving to mitigate influence from noise. A statistical method is used to distinguish significant variations from the smoothed data. The spatial distributions comprised of those significant variations show that a diameter of a stressed area preparing earthquakes is about 3500 km for a M6 event. The deformation deduced from the significant variations is highly related with the slip direction of the fault plane determined through the focal mechanism solution of earthquakes. Although the causal mechanism of such large stressed areas with rapid changes is not fully understood, the analytical results suggest that the earthquake preparation would be one of the factors dominating the common mode error in GPS studies. Mechanisms and/or numerical models of some pre-earthquake anomalous phenomena would be reconsidered based on this novel observation.

Normal Fault Type Earthquakes Off Fukushima Region - Comparison of the 1938 Events and Recent Earthquakes -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murotani, S.; Satake, K.

2017-12-01

Off Fukushima region, Mjma 7.4 (event A) and 6.9 (event B) events occurred on November 6, 1938, following the thrust fault type earthquakes of Mjma 7.5 and 7.3 on the previous day. These earthquakes were estimated as normal fault earthquakes by Abe (1977, Tectonophysics). An Mjma 7.0 earthquake occurred on July 12, 2014 near event B and an Mjma 7.4 earthquake occurred on November 22, 2016 near event A. These recent events are the only M 7 class earthquakes occurred off Fukushima since 1938. Except for the two 1938 events, normal fault earthquakes have not occurred until many aftershocks of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. We compared the observed tsunami and seismic waveforms of the 1938, 2014, and 2016 earthquakes to examine the normal fault earthquakes occurred off Fukushima region. It is difficult to compare the tsunami waveforms of the 1938, 2014 and 2016 events because there were only a few observations at the same station. The teleseismic body wave inversion of the 2016 earthquake yielded with the focal mechanism of strike 42°, dip 35°, and rake -94°. Other source parameters were as follows: source area 70 km x 40 km, average slip 0.2 m, maximum slip 1.2 m, seismic moment 2.2 x 1019 Nm, and Mw 6.8. A large slip area is located near the hypocenter, and it is compatible with the tsunami source area estimated from tsunami travel times. The 2016 tsunami source area is smaller than that of the 1938 event, consistent with the difference in Mw: 7.7 for event A estimated by Abe (1977) and 6.8 for the 2016 event. Although the 2014 epicenter is very close to that of event B, the teleseismic waveforms of the 2014 event are similar to those of event A and the 2016 event. While Abe (1977) assumed that the mechanism of event B was the same as event A, the initial motions at some stations are opposite, indicating that the focal mechanisms of events A and B are different and more detailed examination is needed. The normal fault type earthquake seems to occur following the occurrence of M7 9 class thrust type earthquake at the plate boundary off Fukushima region.

The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and the Rise and Fall of Earthquake Prediction in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Q.; Wang, K.

2009-12-01

Regardless of the future potential of earthquake prediction, it is presently impractical to rely on it to mitigate earthquake disasters. The practical approach is to strengthen the resilience of our built environment to earthquakes based on hazard assessment. But this was not common understanding in China when the M 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake struck the Sichuan Province on 12 May 2008, claiming over 80,000 lives. In China, earthquake prediction is a government-sanctioned and law-regulated measure of disaster prevention. A sudden boom of the earthquake prediction program in 1966-1976 coincided with a succession of nine M > 7 damaging earthquakes in the densely populated region of the country and the political chaos of the Cultural Revolution. It climaxed with the prediction of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake, which was due mainly to an unusually pronounced foreshock sequence and the extraordinary readiness of some local officials to issue imminent warning and evacuation order. The Haicheng prediction was a success in practice and yielded useful lessons, but the experience cannot be applied to most other earthquakes and cultural environments. Since the disastrous Tangshan earthquake in 1976 that killed over 240,000 people, there have been two opposite trends in China: decreasing confidence in prediction and increasing emphasis on regulating construction design for earthquake resilience. In 1976, most of the seismic intensity XI areas of Tangshan were literally razed to the ground, but in 2008, many buildings in the intensity XI areas of Wenchuan did not collapse. Prediction did not save life in either of these events; the difference was made by construction standards. For regular buildings, there was no seismic design in Tangshan to resist any earthquake shaking in 1976, but limited seismic design was required for the Wenchuan area in 2008. Although the construction standards were later recognized to be too low, those buildings that met the standards suffered much less damage than those that did not. However, the progress in practice was very far behind the progress in knowledge and regulations; more strict enforcement of seismic design provisions and wiser selection of construction sites would have saved many more lives in the Wenchuan area. The Wenchuan earthquake has started a new era. Confidence in prediction has dropped to a historical low despite a strong sentimental attachment to it, and practical mitigation management has firmly gained its priority position.

Sensitivity analysis of earthquake-induced static stress changes on volcanoes: the 2010 Mw 8.8 Chile earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonali, F. L.; Tibaldi, A.; Corazzato, C.

2015-06-01

In this work, we analyse in detail how a large earthquake could cause stress changes on volcano plumbing systems and produce possible positive feedbacks in promoting new eruptions. We develop a sensitivity analysis that considers several possible parameters, providing also new constraints on the methodological approach. The work is focus on the Mw 8.8 2010 earthquake that occurred along the Chile subduction zone near 24 historic/Holocene volcanoes, located in the Southern Volcanic Zone. We use six different finite fault-slip models to calculate the static stress change, induced by the coseismic slip, in a direction normal to several theoretical feeder dykes with various orientations. Results indicate different magnitudes of stress change due to the heterogeneity of magma pathway geometry and orientation. In particular, the N-S and NE-SW-striking magma pathways suffer a decrease in stress normal to the feeder dyke (unclamping, up to 0.85 MPa) in comparison to those striking NW-SE and E-W, and in some cases there is even a clamping effect depending on the magma path strike. The diverse fault-slip models have also an effect (up to 0.4 MPa) on the results. As a consequence, we reconstruct the geometry and orientation of the most reliable magma pathways below the 24 volcanoes by studying structural and morphometric data, and we resolve the stress changes on each of them. Results indicate that: (i) volcanoes where post-earthquake eruptions took place experienced earthquake-induced unclamping or very small clamping effects, (ii) several volcanoes that did not erupt yet are more prone to experience future unrest, from the point of view of the host rock stress state, because of earthquake-induced unclamping. Our findings also suggest that pathway orientation plays a more relevant role in inducing stress changes, whereas the depth of calculation (e.g. 2, 5 or 10 km) used in the analysis, is not key a parameter. Earthquake-induced magma-pathway unclamping might contribute to promote new eruptions at volcanoes as far as 450 km from the epicentre.

Protecting your family from earthquakes: The seven steps to earthquake safety

USGS Publications Warehouse

Developed by American Red Cross, Asian Pacific Fund

2007-01-01

This book is provided here because of the importance of preparing for earthquakes before they happen. Experts say it is very likely there will be a damaging San Francisco Bay Area earthquake in the next 30 years and that it will strike without warning. It may be hard to find the supplies and services we need after this earthquake. For example, hospitals may have more patients than they can treat, and grocery stores may be closed for weeks. You will need to provide for your family until help arrives. To keep our loved ones and our community safe, we must prepare now. Some of us come from places where earthquakes are also common. However, the dangers of earthquakes in our homelands may be very different than in the Bay Area. For example, many people in Asian countries die in major earthquakes when buildings collapse or from big sea waves called tsunami. In the Bay Area, the main danger is from objects inside buildings falling on people. Take action now to make sure your family will be safe in an earthquake. The first step is to read this book carefully and follow its advice. By making your home safer, you help make our community safer. Preparing for earthquakes is important, and together we can make sure our families and community are ready. English version p. 3-13 Chinese version p. 14-24 Vietnamese version p. 25-36 Korean version p. 37-48

Earthquake prediction in seismogenic areas of the Iberian Peninsula based on computational intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morales-Esteban, A.; Martínez-Álvarez, F.; Reyes, J.

2013-05-01

A method to predict earthquakes in two of the seismogenic areas of the Iberian Peninsula, based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), is presented in this paper. ANNs have been widely used in many fields but only very few and very recent studies have been conducted on earthquake prediction. Two kinds of predictions are provided in this study: a) the probability of an earthquake, of magnitude equal or larger than a preset threshold magnitude, within the next 7 days, to happen; b) the probability of an earthquake of a limited magnitude interval to happen, during the next 7 days. First, the physical fundamentals related to earthquake occurrence are explained. Second, the mathematical model underlying ANNs is explained and the configuration chosen is justified. Then, the ANNs have been trained in both areas: The Alborán Sea and the Western Azores-Gibraltar fault. Later, the ANNs have been tested in both areas for a period of time immediately subsequent to the training period. Statistical tests are provided showing meaningful results. Finally, ANNs were compared to other well known classifiers showing quantitatively and qualitatively better results. The authors expect that the results obtained will encourage researchers to conduct further research on this topic. Development of a system capable of predicting earthquakes for the next seven days Application of ANN is particularly reliable to earthquake prediction. Use of geophysical information modeling the soil behavior as ANN's input data Successful analysis of one region with large seismic activity

Potential earthquake faults offshore Southern California, from the eastern Santa Barbara Channel south to Dana Point

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fisher, M.A.; Sorlien, C.C.; Sliter, R.W.

2009-01-01

Urban areas in Southern California are at risk from major earthquakes, not only quakes generated by long-recognized onshore faults but also ones that occur along poorly understood offshore faults. We summarize recent research findings concerning these lesser known faults. Research by the U.S. Geological Survey during the past five years indicates that these faults from the eastern Santa Barbara Channel south to Dana Point pose a potential earthquake threat. Historical seismicity in this area indicates that, in general, offshore faults can unleash earthquakes having at least moderate (M 5-6) magnitude. Estimating the earthquake hazard in Southern California is complicated by strain partitioning and by inheritance of structures from early tectonic episodes. The three main episodes are Mesozoic through early Miocene subduction, early Miocene crustal extension coeval with rotation of the Western Transverse Ranges, and Pliocene and younger transpression related to plate-boundary motion along the San Andreas Fault. Additional complication in the analysis of earthquake hazards derives from the partitioning of tectonic strain into strike-slip and thrust components along separate but kinematically related faults. The eastern Santa Barbara Basin is deformed by large active reverse and thrust faults, and this area appears to be underlain regionally by the north-dipping Channel Islands thrust fault. These faults could produce moderate to strong earthquakes and destructive tsunamis. On the Malibu coast, earthquakes along offshore faults could have left-lateral-oblique focal mechanisms, and the Santa Monica Mountains thrust fault, which underlies the oblique faults, could give rise to large (M ??7) earthquakes. Offshore faults near Santa Monica Bay and the San Pedro shelf are likely to produce both strike-slip and thrust earthquakes along northwest-striking faults. In all areas, transverse structures, such as lateral ramps and tear faults, which crosscut the main faults, could segment earthquake rupture zones. ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

Inter-plate aseismic slip on the subducting plate boundaries estimated from repeating earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Igarashi, T.

2015-12-01

Sequences of repeating earthquakes are caused by repeating slips of small patches surrounded by aseismic slip areas at plate boundary zones. Recently, they have been detected in many regions. In this study, I detected repeating earthquakes which occurred in Japan and the world by using seismograms observed in the Japanese seismic network, and investigated the space-time characteristics of inter-plate aseismic slip on the subducting plate boundaries. To extract repeating earthquakes, I calculate cross-correlation coefficients of band-pass filtering seismograms at each station following Igarashi [2010]. I used two data-set based on USGS catalog for about 25 years from May 1990 and JMA catalog for about 13 years from January 2002. As a result, I found many sequences of repeating earthquakes in the subducting plate boundaries of the Andaman-Sumatra-Java and Japan-Kuril-Kamchatka-Aleutian subduction zones. By applying the scaling relations among a seismic moment, recurrence interval and slip proposed by Nadeau and Johnson [1998], they indicate the space-time changes of inter-plate aseismic slips. Pairs of repeating earthquakes with the longest time interval occurred in the Solomon Islands area and the recurrence interval was about 18.5 years. The estimated slip-rate is about 46 mm/year, which correspond to about half of the relative plate motion in this area. Several sequences with fast slip-rates correspond to the post-seismic slips after the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake (M9.0), the 2006 Kuril earthquake (M8.3), the 2007 southern Sumatra earthquake (M8.5), and the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake (M9.0). The database of global repeating earthquakes enables the comparison of the inter-plate aseismic slips of various plate boundary zones of the world. I believe that I am likely to detect more sequences by extending analysis periods in the area where they were not found in this analysis.

44 CFR 60.5 - Flood plain management criteria for flood-related erosion-prone areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Flood plain management criteria for flood-related erosion-prone areas. 60.5 Section 60.5 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION...

44 CFR 60.5 - Flood plain management criteria for flood-related erosion-prone areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Flood plain management criteria for flood-related erosion-prone areas. 60.5 Section 60.5 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION...

Impact of the 2016 Ecuador Earthquake on Zika Virus Cases

PubMed Central

Vasquez, Diego; Palacio, Ana; Nuñez, Jose; Briones, Wladimir; Beier, John C.; Tamariz, Leonardo

2017-01-01

Objectives. To evaluate the impact of the April 2016 7.8-magnitude earthquake in Ecuador on the incidence of Zika virus (ZIKV) cases. Methods. We used the national public health surveillance system for reportable transmissible conditions and included suspected and laboratory-confirmed ZIKV cases. We compared the number of cases before and after the earthquake in areas closer to and farther from the epicenter. Results. From January to July 2016, 2234 patients suspected of having ZIKV infection were reported in both affected and control areas. A total of 1110 patients had a reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction assay, and 159 were positive for ZIKV. The cumulative incidence of ZIKV in the affected area was 11.1 per 100 000 after the earthquake. The odds ratio of having ZIKV infection in those living in the affected area was 8.0 (95% CI = 4.4, 14.6; P < .01) compared with the control area and adjusted for age, gender, province population, and number of government health care facilities. Conclusions. A spike in ZIKV cases occurred after the earthquake. Patients in the area closest to the epicenter had a delay in seeking care. PMID:28520489

Alaskan seismic gap only partially filled by 28 February 1979 earthquake

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lahr, J.C.; Stephens, C.D.; Hasegawa, H.S.

1980-03-21

The Saint Elias, Alaska, earthquake (magnitude 7.7) of 28 February 1979 is the first major earthquake since 1900 to occur along the complex Pacific-North American plate boundary between Yakutat Bay and Prince William Sound. This event involved complex rupture on a shallow, low-angle, north-dipping fault beneath the Chugach and Saint Elias Mountains. The plate boundary between Yakutat Bay and Prince William Sound had been identified as a seismic gap, an area devoid of major earthquakes during the last few decades, and was thought to be a likely site for a future major earthquake. Since the Saint Elias earthquake fills onlymore » the eastern quarter of the gap, the remainder of the gap to the west is a prime area for the study of precursory and coseismic phenomena associated with large earthquakes. 1 figure, 1 table.« less

Earthquakes in Virginia and vicinity 1774 - 2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tarr, Arthur C.; Wheeler, Russell L.

2006-01-01

This map summarizes two and a third centuries of earthquake activity. The seismic history consists of letters, journals, diaries, and newspaper and scholarly articles that supplement seismograph recordings (seismograms) dating from the early twentieth century to the present. All of the pre-instrumental (historical) earthquakes were large enough to be felt by people or to cause shaking damage to buildings and their contents. Later, widespread use of seismographs meant that tremors too small or distant to be felt could be detected and accurately located. Earthquakes are a legitimate concern in Virginia and parts of adjacent States. Moderate earthquakes cause slight local damage somewhere in the map area about twice a decade on the average. Additionally, many buildings in the map area were constructed before earthquake protection was added to local building codes. The large map shows all historical and instrumentally located earthquakes from 1774 through 2004.

Relationship between large slip area and static stress drop of aftershocks of inland earthquake :Example of the 2007 Noto Hanto earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urano, S.; Hiramatsu, Y.; Yamada, T.

2013-12-01

The 2007 Noto Hanto earthquake (MJMA 6.9; hereafter referred to the main shock) occurred at 0:41(UTC) on March 25, 2007 at a depth of 11km beneath the west coast of Noto Peninsula, central Japan. The dominant slip of the main shock was on a reverse fault with a right-lateral slip and the large slip area was distributed from hypocenter to the shallow part on the fault plane (Horikawa, 2008). The aftershocks are distributed not only in the small slip area but also in the large slip area (Hiramatsu et al., 2011). In this study, we estimate static stress drops of aftershocks on the fault plane of the main shock. We discuss the relationship between the static stress drops of the aftershocks and the large slip area of the main shock by investigating spatial pattern of the values of the static stress drops. We use the waveform data obtained by the group for the joint aftershock observations of the 2007 Noto Hanto Earthquake (Sakai et al., 2007). The sampling frequency of the waveform data is 100 Hz or 200 Hz. Focusing on similar aftershocks reported by Hiramatsu et al. (2011), we analyze static stress drops by using the method of empirical Green's function (EGF) (Hough, 1997) as follows. The smallest earthquake (MJMA≥2.0) of each group of similar earthquakes is set to the EGF earthquake, and the largest earthquake (MJMA≥2.5) is set to the target earthquake. We then deconvolve the waveform of an interested earthquake with that of the EGF earthquake at each station and obtain the spectral ratio of the sources that cancels the propagation effects (path and site effects). Following the procedure of Yamada et al. (2010), we finally estimate static stress drops for P- and S-waves from corner frequencies of the spectral ratio by using a model of Madariaga (1976). The estimated average value of static stress drop is 8.2×1.3 MPa (8.6×2.2 MPa for P-wave and 7.8×1.3 MPa for S-wave). These values are coincident approximately with the static stress drop of aftershocks of other inland earthquakes in Japan (Ito et al., 2005; Iio et al., 2006) and independent of the seismic moment. We then compare the values with the coseismic slip distribution of the main shock reported by Horikawa (2008). If we define large slip areas as areas with a slip exceeding 1 m, the average value of static stress drop is 12×2.3 (MPa) in the area. On the other hand, the average value is 5.7×0.9 (MPa) outside the large slip area. These results suggest that aftershocks in the large slip area likely have larger values of static stress drop, which would reflect the spatial heterogeneity of shear strength and dynamic stress level. Our results are coincident with the result of Yamada et al. (2010).

Microseismicity in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, Korea, and its implications for the seismic hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, K.; Kim, W.; Kang, S.; Ryoo, Y.; Kim, M.; Park, Y.; Kyung, J.

2012-12-01

On 9 February 2010, a minor earthquake occurred in the northwest of South Korea. The earthquake was widely felt in the Seoul National Capital Area (SNCA). The earthquake attracted much attention from media, politicians, policy makers and the public, who raised concerns about seismic hazards and risks in the Korea Peninsula, in particular, to the SNCA. SNCA includes the Seoul and Incheon metropolitans and most of the Gyeonggi province. It has a population of 24.5 million (as of 2007) and is ranked as the second largest metropolitan area in the world. The SNCA has been the center of the economics, politics, and culture during the past half millennium since the city has been designated as the capital city in 1394. We applied waveform correlation detector to 2007-2010 continuously recorded seismic data to identify repeating earthquakes. We identify 9 micro-earthquakes during 2007-2010 periods which are not reported in the KNSN bulletin because their magnitudes are too small. Estimated magnitudes using amplitude ratios measured at the station SEO indicate the smallest event detected by the waveform cross correlation technique in the study is as low as 0.19. The number of events for our interpretation becomes 11 including two previously reported events and nine newly identified micro-earthquakes. All of them occur in a very small area. While there are historic documents reporting earthquakes in the SNCA, repeating earthquakes or clustered seismicity from the instrumental earthquake record have not reported before. We have determined the focal mechanism solution for the representative events (9 February 2010, ML 3.0) using the first-motion polarities. The preferred focal mechanism solution for the representative event is the WNW-ESE striking fault, which are consistent with the precisely determined earthquake hypocenter distribution. It is also consistent with the results in the previous studies of stress orientation in and around the Korean peninsula. The new list of earthquakes in this study is far from any complete, although we have adopted a well-established method to detect earthquakes. Assuming the average crustal velocity in the study area (P-wave velocity 6.0 km/sec) and the band-width of interest (2-8 Hz), probably the detection technique is effective only for the events located within ~1 km from the master events. Considering the low seismicity, extensive efforts to monitor the micro-seismicity are definitely required to obtain comprehensive picture of the seismicity pattern in the area.

Classification of Earthquake-triggered Landslide Events - Review of Classical and Particular Cases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, A.; Havenith, H. B.; Schlögel, R.

2016-12-01

Seismically induced landslides often contribute to a significant degree to the losses related to earthquakes. The identification of possible extends of landslide affected areas can help to target emergency measures when an earthquake occurs or improve the resilience of inhabited areas and critical infrastructure in zones of high seismic hazard. Moreover, landslide event sizes are an important proxy for the estimation of the intensity and magnitude of past earthquakes in paleoseismic studies, allowing us to improve seismic hazard assessment over longer terms. Not only earthquake intensity, but also factors such as the fault characteristics, topography, climatic conditions and the geological environment have a major impact on the intensity and spatial distribution of earthquake induced landslides. Inspired by classical reviews of earthquake induced landslides, e.g. by Keefer or Jibson, we present here a review of factors contributing to earthquake triggered slope failures based on an `event-by-event' classification approach. The objective of this analysis is to enable the short-term prediction of earthquake triggered landslide event sizes in terms of numbers and size of the affected area right after an earthquake event occurred. Five main factors, `Intensity', `Fault', `Topographic energy', `Climatic conditions' and `Surface geology' were used to establish a relationship to the number and spatial extend of landslides triggered by an earthquake. Based on well-documented recent earthquakes (e.g. Haiti 2010, Wenchuan 2008) and on older events for which reliable extensive information was available (e.g. Northridge 1994, Loma Prieta 1989, Guatemala 1976, Peru 1970) the combination and relative weight of the factors was calibrated. The calibrated factor combination was then applied to more than 20 earthquake events for which landslide distribution characteristics could be crosschecked. We present cases where our prediction model performs well and discuss particular cases where it does not. These are e.g. cases of far distant, delayed or ancient earthquake induced landslides.

Earthquake nucleation by transient deformations caused by the M = 7.9 Denali, Alaska, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.; Bodin, P.; Larson, K.; Dragert, H.

2004-01-01

The permanent and dynamic (transient) stress changes inferred to trigger earthquakes are usually orders of magnitude smaller than the stresses relaxed by the earthquakes themselves, implying that triggering occurs on critically stressed faults. Triggered seismicity rate increases may therefore be most likely to occur in areas where loading rates are highest and elevated pore pressures, perhaps facilitated by high-temperature fluids, reduce frictional stresses and promote failure. Here we show that the 2002 magnitude M = 7.9 Denali, Alaska, earthquake triggered wide-spread seismicity rate increases throughout British Columbia and into the western United States. Dynamic triggering by seismic waves should be enhanced in directions where rupture directivity focuses radiated energy, and we verify this using seismic and new high-sample GPS recordings of the Denali mainshock. These observations are comparable in scale only to the triggering caused by the 1992 M = 7.4 Landers, California, earthquake, and demonstrate that Landers triggering did not reflect some peculiarity of the region or the earthquake. However, the rate increases triggered by the Denali earthquake occurred in areas not obviously tectonically active, implying that even in areas of low ambient stressing rates, faults may still be critically stressed and that dynamic triggering may be ubiquitous and unpredictable.

The April 16th 2016 Pedernales Earthquake and Instituto Geofisico efforts for improving seismic monitoring in Ecuador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz, M. C.; Alvarado, A. P.; Hernandez, S.; Singaucho, J. C.; Gabriela, P.; Landeureau, A.; Perrault, M.; Acero, W.; Viracucha, C.; Plain, M.; Yepes, H. A.; Palacios, P.; Aguilar, J.; Mothes, P. A.; Segovia, M.; Pacheco, D. A.; Vaca, S.

2016-12-01

On April 16th, 2016, Ecuador's coastal provinces were struck by a devastating earthquake with 7.8 Mw magnitude. This event caused the earthquake-related largest dead toll in Ecuador (663 fatalities) since 1987 inland event. It provoked also a widespread destruction of houses, hotels, hospitals, affecting economic activities. Damaged was very worthy in the city of Pedernales, one of the nearest localities to the epicenter. Rupture area extended about a 100 km from the southern limit marked by the aftershock area of the 1998, 7.1 Mw earthquake to its northern limit controlled by the Punta Galera-Mompiche seismic zone, which is one of the several elongated swarms oriented perpendicular to the trench that occurred since 2007. Historical accounts of the Ecuador Colombia subduction zone have few mentions of felt earthquakes in the XVIII and XIX century likely related to poor communication and urban settlements in this area. A cycle of noticeable earthquakes began in 1896, including the 1906 8.8 Mw event and three earthquakes with magnitudes larger than 7.7 in the period 1942-1979, that preceded the 2016 earthquake. The Instituto Geofiísico of the Escuela Politécnica Nacional (IGEPN) has been monitoring the coastal area through the National Seismic Network (RENSIG) since 30 years back and recently enhanced through SENASCYT and SENPLADES supported projects. International collaboration from Japanese JICA and French IRD also contributed to expand the network and implement research projects in the area. Nowadays, the RENSIG has 135 seismic stations including 105 broadband and 5 strong motion velocimeters. Processing performed by Seiscomp3 software allows an automatic distribution of seismic parameters. A joint cooperation between IGEPN, the Navy Oceanographic Institute and the National Department for Risk Management is in charge of tsunami monitoring.

Impact of average household income and damage exposure on post-earthquake distress and functioning: A community study following the February 2011 Christchurch earthquake.

PubMed

Dorahy, Martin J; Rowlands, Amy; Renouf, Charlotte; Hanna, Donncha; Britt, Eileen; Carter, Janet D

2015-08-01

Post-traumatic stress, depression and anxiety symptoms are common outcomes following earthquakes, and may persist for months and years. This study systematically examined the impact of neighbourhood damage exposure and average household income on psychological distress and functioning in 600 residents of Christchurch, New Zealand, 4-6 months after the fatal February, 2011 earthquake. Participants were from highly affected and relatively unaffected suburbs in low, medium and high average household income areas. The assessment battery included the Acute Stress Disorder Scale, the depression module of the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9), and the Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale (GAD-7), along with single item measures of substance use, earthquake damage and impact, and disruptions in daily life and relationship functioning. Controlling for age, gender and social isolation, participants from low income areas were more likely to meet diagnostic cut-offs for depression and anxiety, and have more severe anxiety symptoms. Higher probabilities of acute stress, depression and anxiety diagnoses were evident in affected versus unaffected areas, and those in affected areas had more severe acute stress, depression and anxiety symptoms. An interaction between income and earthquake effect was found for depression, with those from the low and medium income affected suburbs more depressed. Those from low income areas were more likely, post-earthquake, to start psychiatric medication and increase smoking. There was a uniform increase in alcohol use across participants. Those from the low income affected suburb had greater general and relationship disruption post-quake. Average household income and damage exposure made unique contributions to earthquake-related distress and dysfunction. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

New information on earthquake history of the Aksehir-Afyon Graben System, Turkey, since the second half of 18th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozer, N.

2006-12-01

Researches aimed at enriching the number of available documentary sources on earthquakes have an important role in seismology. To this end, this paper documents the history of prominent earthquakes associated with the NW-SE trending Sultandag-Aksehir Fault and Aksehir-Afyon graben system in Western-Central Anatolia since the historical times through 1766. This work also combines the earthquake data for both historical and instrumental periods, previously listed in various catalogues and resources, for the studied area. Documents from the Ottoman archives and libraries as well as the Ottoman and Turkish newspapers were scrutinized, and eight previously unreported earthquakes in the latter half of the nineteenth century and four new earthquakes in the period 1900-1931 were revealed. For the period from 1766 to 1931, the total number of known earthquakes for the area under investigation increased from eighteen to thirty thanks to the document search. Furthermore, the existing information on eleven previously reported earthquakes is updated for the period from 1862 to 1946. Earthquakes from 1946 to 1964 are compiled from the catalogues for data completeness.

The next big earthquake in the Bay Area may come sooner than you think—Are you prepared?

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1990-01-01

Many of us breathed a little easier after October 17, 1989. The Lorna Prieta earthquake, 7.1 on the Richter scale, meant that the big one, talked about for decades, had finally happened. And, bad as it was, we had survived.There are two things wrong with that. First, Lorna Prieta was not the big one. It was a moderately big one, certainly destructive to some parts of the Bay Area, but nowhere near the size of the great San Francisco earthquake of 1906. Second, having an earthquake like Lorna Prieta has little to do with the likelihood of having another one on a different fault, somewhere else in the area.The inevitability of a damaging earthquake still confronts everybody in the Bay Area, and we still risk substantial damage. A new study, released in July 1990 by the United States Geological Survey, says that there is a 67 percent chance of another earthquake the size of Lorna Prieta during the next 30 years and that the quake could strike at any time, including today. In other words, scientists think that a magnitude 7 or larger earthquake is now twice as likely to happen as not to happen. This is a substantial increase, since in 1988, scientists thought the chance for such an earthquake was 50 percent Gust as likely to occur as not to occur) within 30 years.The new report also says that the next one will most likely strike farther north than Lorna Prieta, somewhere between San Jose and Santa Rosa on either side of the Bay. The epicenter of the October 1989 quake was in a sparsely populated area. The next one, according to the study, will likely be centered in a more populated area. During the Lorna Prieta earthquake, shaking was so severe in the Santa Cruz Mountains that a van overturned, treetops snapped off, and many people were thrown to the ground. Because the next one is expected to strike closer to an urban area, it will cause much more damage.Fortunately, there is something we can do about it. By taking actions, such as those described in this booklet, we can drastically reduce the losses and we can make the Bay Area a safer place to live. Earthquake damage is particularly great in certain locations and in certain buildings. Most locations and most modem buildings are relatively safe. By identifying the greatest hazards, we can set priorities for using our limited resources most effectively to reduce them. The choice is ours.

Earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay Region: 2000 to 2030 - a summary of findings

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1999-01-01

The San Francisco Bay region sits astride a dangerous “earthquake machine,” the tectonic boundary between the Pacific and North American Plates. The region has experienced major and destructive earthquakes in 1838, 1868, 1906, and 1989, and future large earthquakes are a certainty. The ability to prepare for large earthquakes is critical to saving lives and reducing damage to property and infrastructure. An increased understanding of the timing, size, location, and effects of these likely earthquakes is a necessary component in any effective program of preparedness. This study reports on the probabilities of occurrence of major earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) for the three decades 2000 to 2030. The SFBR extends from Healdsberg on the northwest to Salinas on the southeast and encloses the entire metropolitan area, including its most rapidly expanding urban and suburban areas. In this study a “major” earthquake is defined as one with M≥6.7 (where M is moment magnitude). As experience from the Northridge, California (M6.7, 1994) and Kobe, Japan (M6.9, 1995) earthquakes has shown us, earthquakes of this size can have a disastrous impact on the social and economic fabric of densely urbanized areas. To reevaluate the probability of large earthquakes striking the SFBR, the U.S. Geological Survey solicited data, interpretations, and analyses from dozens of scientists representing a wide crosssection of the Earth-science community (Appendix A). The primary approach of this new Working Group (WG99) was to develop a comprehensive, regional model for the long-term occurrence of earthquakes, founded on geologic and geophysical observations and constrained by plate tectonics. The model considers a broad range of observations and their possible interpretations. Using this model, we estimate the rates of occurrence of earthquakes and 30-year earthquake probabilities. Our study considers a range of magnitudes for earthquakes on the major faults in the region—an innovation over previous studies of the SFBR that considered only a small number of potential earthquakes of fixed magnitude.

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment based on the long-term evaluation of subduction-zone earthquakes along the Sagami Trough, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, K.; Fujiwara, H.; Nakamura, H.; Osada, M.; Ohsumi, T.; Morikawa, N.; Kawai, S.; Maeda, T.; Matsuyama, H.; Toyama, N.; Kito, T.; Murata, Y.; Saito, R.; Takayama, J.; Akiyama, S.; Korenaga, M.; Abe, Y.; Hashimoto, N.; Hakamata, T.

2017-12-01

For the forthcoming large earthquakes along the Sagami Trough where the Philippine Sea Plate is subducting beneath the northeast Japan arc, the Earthquake Research Committee(ERC) /Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, Japanese government (2014a) assessed that M7 and M8 class earthquakes will occur there and defined the possible extent of the earthquake source areas. They assessed 70% and 0% 5% of the occurrence probability within the next 30 years (from Jan. 1, 2014), respectively, for the M7 and M8 class earthquakes. First, we set possible 10 earthquake source areas(ESAs) and 920 ESAs, respectively, for M8 and M7 class earthquakes. Next, we constructed 125 characterized earthquake fault models (CEFMs) and 938 CEFMs, respectively, for M8 and M7 class earthquakes, based on "tsunami receipt" of ERC (2017) (Kitoh et al., 2016, JpGU). All the CEFMs are allowed to have a large slip area for expression of fault slip heterogeneity. For all the CEFMs, we calculate tsunamis by solving a nonlinear long wave equation, using FDM, including runup calculation, over a nesting grid system with a minimum grid size of 50 meters. Finally, we re-distributed the occurrence probability to all CEFMs (Abe et al., 2014, JpGU) and gathered excess probabilities for variable tsunami heights, calculated from all the CEFMs, at every observation point along Pacific coast to get PTHA. We incorporated aleatory uncertainties inherent in tsunami calculation and earthquake fault slip heterogeneity. We considered two kinds of probabilistic hazard models; one is "Present-time hazard model" under an assumption that the earthquake occurrence basically follows a renewal process based on BPT distribution if the latest faulting time was known. The other is "Long-time averaged hazard model" under an assumption that earthquake occurrence follows a stationary Poisson process. We fixed our viewpoint, for example, on the probability that the tsunami height will exceed 3 meters at coastal points in next 30 years (from Jan. 1, 2014). Present-time hazard model showed relatively high possibility over 0.1% along the Boso Peninsula. Long-time averaged hazard model showed highest possibility over 3% along the Boso Peninsula and relatively high possibility over 0.1 % along wide coastal areas on Pacific side from Kii Peninsula to Fukushima prefecture.

A contribution to the seismic hazard of the Apulia Region (Southern Italy): environmental effects triggered by historical earthquakes in last centuries.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porfido, Sabina; Alessio, Giuliana; Nappi, Rosa; De Lucia, Maddalena; Gaudiosi, Germana

2016-04-01

The aim of this study is a critical revision of the historical and recent seismicity of the Apulia and surrounding seismogenetic areas, for re-evaluating the macroseismic effects in MCS scale and ground effects in natural environment according to the ESI 2007 scale (Michetti et al., 2007) as a contribution to the seismic hazard of the region. The most important environmental effect due to historical earthquakes in the Apulia was the tsunami occurrence, followed by landslides, liquefaction phenomena, hydrological changes and ground cracks. The Apulia (Southern Italy) has been hit by several low energy and a few high energy earthquakes in the last centuries. In particular, the July 30, 1627 earthquake (I=X MCS, Rovida et al., 2011) and the May 5, 1646 event (I=X MCS), the strongest earthquakes of the Gargano promontory have been reviewed, together with the March 20, 1731 earthquake (I=IX MCS, Mw=6.5, Rovida et al., 2011), the most relevant of the Foggia province, and the February 20, 1743 earthquake (I=IX MCS, Mw= 7.1, Rovida et al., 2011, I ESI=X, Nappi et al, 2015), the strongest of the Salento area,. The whole Apulia region has also been struck by strong earthquakes of neighboring seismogenetic areas located in the Southern Apennines, Adriatic and Ionian Sea, Albania and Greece, well propagated throughout the Italian peninsula, and in particular in the southern regions, where the intensity degrees are higher, sometimes exceeding the limit of damage. Some well documented examples of Greek earthquakes strongly felt in the whole Apulia region were: the August 27, 1886 earthquake (Peloponnesus, Greece); the May 28, 1897 earthquake (Creta-Cypro); the June 26, 1926 earthquake (Creta and Cipro, Imax=X MCS), felt all over the Southern Italy; the August 28, 1962 earthquake (epicenter in Peloponnesus area). It is noteworthy that earthquakes located in the Southern Apennines were powerfully felt in the whole Apulia region; among the strongest historical events of the Campania-Lucania Apennines we mention the 1456 (Imax =XI MCS), 1694 (Imax =XI MCS) and 1857 (Imax=XI MCS) earthquakes. More recently, the July 23, 1930 (Imax=X MCS) and the November 23, 1980 (Imax=X MCS) Irpinia earthquakes gave rise to several ground effects, mostly hydrological variations, in the Apulian region. This study is a contribution for a better evaluation of the whole Apulia region seismic hazard that represents one of the most crowded touristic destination of the Southern Italy, all over the summer season.

The Prone Protected Posture

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-08-01

5K 2. METHODOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 3. RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23I 4...2. METHODOLOGY The first step required in this study was to characterize the prone protected posture. Basically, a man in the prone posture differs...reduction in the presented area of target personnel. Reference 6 contains a concise discussion of the methodology used to generate the shielding functions

The Falls City Engineers: A History of the Louisville District U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 1984-2004

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

earthquake prediction in the New Madrid fault area near the Olmsted project.32 LOCAL FLOOD REDUCTION TESTS While...113 Neichter, Patrick, 91 New Albany, IN, 127, 145 Newark Air Force Base, 32, 43 , 47 Newburgh Locks and Dam, xi, 91 New Madrid earthquake , 20... Madrid earthquake , the greatest earthquake in American history, more powerful than the 1906 San Francisco earthquake . The 1811 earthquake had caused

The ``exceptional'' earthquake of 3 January 1117 in the Verona area (northern Italy): A critical time review and detection of two lost earthquakes (lower Germany and Tuscany)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guidoboni, Emanuela; Comastri, Alberto; Boschi, Enzo

2005-12-01

In the seismological literature the 3 January 1117 earthquake represents an interesting case study, both for the sheer size of the area in which that event is recorded by the monastic sources of the 12th century, and for the amount of damage mentioned. The 1117 event has been added to the earthquake catalogues of up to five European countries (Italy, France, Belgium, Switzerland, the Iberian peninsula), and it is the largest historical earthquake for northern Italy. We have analyzed the monastic time system in the 12th century and, by means of a comparative analysis of the sources, have correlated the two shocks mentioned (in the night and in the afternoon of 3 January) to territorial effects, seeking to make the overall picture reported for Europe more consistent. The connection between the linguistic indications and the localization of the effects has allowed us to shed light, with a reasonable degree of approximation, upon two previously little known earthquakes, probably generated by a sequence of events. A first earthquake in lower Germany (I0 (epicentral intensity) VII-VIII MCS (Mercalli, Cancani, Sieberg), M 6.4) preceded the far more violent one in northern Italy (Verona area) by about 12-13 hours. The second event is the one reported in the literature. We have put forward new parameters for this Veronese earthquake (I0 IX MCS, M 7.0). A third earthquake is independently recorded in the northwestern area of Tuscany (Imax VII-VIII MCS), but for the latter event the epicenter and magnitude cannot be evaluated.

Joint the active source and passive source seismic to research the fine crustal structure of the Lushan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Q.; Yu, C.

2017-12-01

On April 20, 2013, Ms7.0 strong earthquake (Lushan earthquake) occurred in Lanshan County Ya'an City, Sichuan Province. It is another earthquake that occurred in the Longmenshan fault zone after the Wenchuan earthquake. However, there is still no conclusive conclusion in relationship between the fine structure of the Lushan area and triggering seismic fault . In this study, the crustal structure, the shallow structure and the hidden faults and the focal mechanism of the Lushan earthquake were analyzed by using the deep seismic reflection profile and the broadband seismic array data. Combined with the surface geological information, the structure and fracture cause of the Lishan earthquake were discussed.We have synthetic analyzed the seismic precursors, fine locating, focal mechanism analysis and time-tomographic imaging of the broadband seismic data before and after the earthquake in Lushan earthquake, and obtained the seismic distribution, the focal mechanism and the crustal fine structure in the Lushan area. And we use these results to detailed interpreted the deep reflection seismic section of the Lushan earthquake zone.The results show that the crust of the Lushan area is characterized by a distinct structure of upper crust with thickness about 14.75km. The nature of the faults is inferred to be thrusting in the region due to the pushing of the crustal material of the Tibetan plateau into the southeast part of the rigid Sichuan basin. The shuangshi-Dachuan fault stretches from the surface to the deep crust at a low angle, and is dominated by thrusting in a form of imbricate structure with small-scale faults nearby. Whereas the Guangyuan-Dayi fault is a positive flower structure with a listric shape, consisting of six branches. Its movement is dominated by thrusting with gentle horizontal slip.

The Near-Source Intensity Distribution for the August 24, 2014, South Napa Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boatwright, J.; Pickering, A.; Blair, J. L.

2016-12-01

The 2014 Mw=6.0 South Napa earthquake was the largest and most damaging earthquake to occur in the Bay Area since the 1989 Mw=6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. The City of Napa estimated that the earthquake caused 300 million damage to homes and commercial properties and 58 million to public infrastructure. Over 41,000 reports were entered on the USGS "Did You Feel It?" (DYFI) website: 730 of these reports were located within 15 km of the rupture. Unfortunately, very few geocoded intensities were obtained immediately west and north of the rupture area. In the weeks following the earthquake, we conducted an intensity survey focused on areas poorly sampled by the DYFI reports. 75 sites were surveyed within 15 km of the earthquake rupture. In addition, we checked and manually geocoded many of the DYFI reports, locating 245 reports within 15 km of the rupture that the automated DYFI processing failed to geocode. We combine the survey sites and the newly geocoded DYFI reports with the original geocoded DYFI reports to map and contour the near-source shaking intensity. In addition to imaging the strong shaking (MMI 7.0-8.0) in the City of Napa, we find an area of very strong shaking (MMI 7.5-8.0) to the northwest of the earthquake rupture. This area, marked by ground cracks, damage to modern wood-frame buildings, and reports of people knocked down, coincides with the directivity expected for rupture to the northwest and up dip. The intensities from the survey sites are consistent with the intensities from the DYFI reports, but are much less variable. For DYFI intensities MMI 4-6, this variability could be derived from the 3:20 AM occurrence of the earthquake: some of the effects that the DYFI questionnaire uses to assign these intensities (objects swaying, bushes and trees shaken) cannot be observed in the dark.

Perspectives on earthquake hazards in the New Madrid seismic zone, Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thenhaus, P.C.

1990-01-01

A sequence of three great earthquakes struck the Central United States during the winter of 1811-1812 in the area of New Madrid, Missouri. they are considered to be the greatest earthquakes in the conterminous U.S because they were felt and caused damage at far greater distances than any other earthquakes in U.S history. The large population currently living within the damage area of these earthquakes means that widespread destruction and loss of life is likely if the sequence were repeated. In contrast to California, where the earthquakes are felt frequently, the damaging earthquakes that have occurred in the Easter U.S-in 155 (Cape Ann, Mass.), 1811-12 (New Madrid, Mo.), 1886 (Charleston S.C) ,and 1897 (Giles County, Va.- are generally regarded as only historical phenomena (fig. 1). The social memory of these earthquakes no longer exists. A fundamental problem in the Eastern U.S, therefore, is that the earthquake hazard is not generally considered today in land-use and civic planning. This article offers perspectives on the earthquake hazard of the New Madrid seismic zone through discussions of the geology of the Mississippi Embayment, the historical earthquakes that have occurred there, the earthquake risk, and the "tools" that geoscientists have to study the region. The so-called earthquake hazard is defined  by the characterization of the physical attributes of the geological structures that cause earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, their potential size, and the expected ground motions. the term "earthquake risk," on the other hand, refers to aspects of the expected damage to manmade strctures and to lifelines as a result of the earthquake hazard.  

The 1748 Montesa (south-east Spain) earthquake, a singular event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buforn, Elisa; Udías, Agustín; Sanz de Galdeano, Carlos

2015-04-01

The Montesa earthquakes of 1748 took place in the south-east region of the Iberian Peninsula. Its location falls somewhat outside the seismic active region of southern Spain. The main shock took place on the 23 of March and was followed by a series of aftershocks, the largest on the 2 of April. Despite of the large number of documents with descriptions of the damage produced by this earthquake it has not been the object of a detailed seismological study. Documents described the damage in about 100 towns and villages over a wide area and it was felt in Valencia, Alcoy and Cartagena. The castle of Montesa was totally destroyed and the town of Xàtiva suffered heavy damage. The source region with seismic intensity IX extends about 15 km from Sellent to Enguera, along a possible fault of NE-SW direction. This is a singular event because it occurred in an area with an assigned low seismic risk where in the past very few large earthquakes have happened. This earthquake shows that a destructive earthquake may happen in the future in this region. The area affected by the earthquake has today a high industrial and tourist development.

The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe.

PubMed

duPont, William; Noy, Ilan; Okuyama, Yoko; Sawada, Yasuyuki

2015-01-01

We quantify the 'permanent' socio-economic impacts of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake in 1995 by employing a large-scale panel dataset of 1,719 cities, towns, and wards from Japan over three decades. In order to estimate the counterfactual--i.e., the Kobe economy without the earthquake--we use the synthetic control method. Three important empirical patterns emerge: First, the population size and especially the average income level in Kobe have been lower than the counterfactual level without the earthquake for over fifteen years, indicating a permanent negative effect of the earthquake. Such a negative impact can be found especially in the central areas which are closer to the epicenter. Second, the surrounding areas experienced some positive permanent impacts in spite of short-run negative effects of the earthquake. Much of this is associated with movement of people to East Kobe, and consequent movement of jobs to the metropolitan center of Osaka, that is located immediately to the East of Kobe. Third, the furthest areas in the vicinity of Kobe seem to have been insulated from the large direct and indirect impacts of the earthquake.

Suicide risk among young children after the Great East Japan Earthquake: A follow-up study.

PubMed

Fujiwara, Takeo; Yagi, Junko; Homma, Hiroaki; Mashiko, Hirobumi; Nagao, Keizo; Okuyama, Makiko

2017-07-01

On 11 March 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake and subsequent tsunami hit East Japan. We aim to investigate the impact of trauma experiences related to the earthquake on suicide risk among young children, stratified by child sex. Participants at baseline were children who were exposed to the 2011 disaster at preschool age (affected area, n=198; unaffected area, n=82, total n=280). From July 2013 to May 2014, suicide risk was assessed using the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview for Children and Adolescents (MINI-KID) in a follow-up interview conducted by a child psychiatrist or psychologist (N=210, follow-up rate: 75%). Among young girls in the affected area, 12 out of 65 (18.5%) showed suicidal ideation, which is significantly higher than girls in the unaffected area (4.7%, p for chi-square=0.036). In the multivariate model adjusted for potential confounders and mediators, the odds ratio for 4 or more trauma experiences related to the earthquake was 5.74 (95% confidence interval: 0.83-39.6, p=0.076) compared to no trauma experience related to the earthquake. Among young boys, trauma exposure was not associated with suicidal ideation. Our findings showed that young girls who experienced earthquake-related trauma at preschool age had a higher suicidal ideation 3 years after the earthquake. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Object-Oriented Analysis of Satellite Images Using Artificial Neural Networks for Post-Earthquake Buildings Change Detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khodaverdi zahraee, N.; Rastiveis, H.

2017-09-01

Earthquake is one of the most divesting natural events that threaten human life during history. After the earthquake, having information about the damaged area, the amount and type of damage can be a great help in the relief and reconstruction for disaster managers. It is very important that these measures should be taken immediately after the earthquake because any negligence could be more criminal losses. The purpose of this paper is to propose and implement an automatic approach for mapping destructed buildings after an earthquake using pre- and post-event high resolution satellite images. In the proposed method after preprocessing, segmentation of both images is performed using multi-resolution segmentation technique. Then, the segmentation results are intersected with ArcGIS to obtain equal image objects on both images. After that, appropriate textural features, which make a better difference between changed or unchanged areas, are calculated for all the image objects. Finally, subtracting the extracted textural features from pre- and post-event images, obtained values are applied as an input feature vector in an artificial neural network for classifying the area into two classes of changed and unchanged areas. The proposed method was evaluated using WorldView2 satellite images, acquired before and after the 2010 Haiti earthquake. The reported overall accuracy of 93% proved the ability of the proposed method for post-earthquake buildings change detection.

Transpressional Structure in Chiayi Area, Taiwan: Insight from the 2017 ML5.1 Zhongpu Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, K. F.; Huang, H. H.

2017-12-01

The Chiayi area is located at the deformation front of active fold-and-thrust belt of Taiwan, where the fault system is composed primarily of a series of north-south-trending east-dipping thrusts and also an east-west-trending strike-slip fault (Meishan Fault, MSF) with right-lateral faulting. On 24th May 2017, a ML 5.1 earthquake occurred at Zhongpu, Chiayi (namely Zhongpu earthquake), however, shows a left-lateral strike-slip faulting distinct from the known structure in the area. The distribution of the reported aftershocks is difficult to distinguish the actual fault plane. To determine the fault plane of this abnormal earthquake and investigate its structural relationships to the regional tectonics, we relocate the earthquake sequence and estimate the rupture directivity of the mainshock by using the 3-D double difference hypocenter relocation method (Lin, 2013) and the 3-D directivity moment tensor inversion method (DMT, Huang et al., 2017, submitted). The DMT results show that the rupture directivity of the Zhongpu earthquake is west- and down-ward along the east-west fault plane, which also agrees with east-west-distributed aftershocks after relocation. As a result, the Zhongpu earthquake reveals an undiscovered east-west-trending structure which is sub-parallel with the MSF but with opposite faulting direction, exhibiting a complex transpressional tectonic regime in the Chiayi area.

MARSite-MARMARA SUPERSITE: Accomplishments and Outlook

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meral Ozel, Nurcan; Necmioglu, Ocal; Ergintav, Semih; Oguz Ozel, Asım; Italiano, Franco; Favali, Paolo; Bigarre, Pascal; Cakir, Ziyadin; Geli, Louis; Aochi, Hideo; Bossu, Remy; Zulfikar, Can; Sesetyan, Karin

2017-04-01

MARsite Project, funded under FP7-ENV.2012 6.4-2 (Grant 308417) and successfully implemented to Marmara Region during 2014-2016 indicated that focusing on the monitoring of the region and the integration of data from land, sea and space and the processing of this composed data based on sound earth-science research is an effective tool for mitigating damage from future earthquakes. This was achieved by monitoring the earthquake hazard through the ground-shaking and forecast maps, short- and long-term earthquake rate forecasting and time-dependent seismic hazard maps to make important risk-mitigation decisions regarding building design, insurance rates, land-use planning, and public-policy issues that need to balance safety and economic and social interests. MARSite has demonstrated the power of the use of different sensors in the assessment of the earthquake hazard. In addition to the more than 30 scientific publication within the MARsite Project framework, a multidisciplinary innovative borehole seismic observatory and a dilatometer have been installed within MARSite where its a data can be used for a range of seismic studies. Due to the encouraging results obtained from this experiment, it was determined that in the future likely smaller number of stations will be required reducing the cost of national seismic networks. The technical infrastructure of the continuous GPS stations of MAGNET network has been updated within MARSite. Tsunami hazard studies in MARSite in Marmara Sea showed that the tsunami hazard in the Marmara Region is primarily due to submarine landslides triggered by an earthquake and a conceptual Tsunami Early Warning System in the Marmara region strongly coupled with the strong ground motion and existing Earthquake Early Warning System was developed. The existing Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Response system in the Marmara Region was improved and the installation and test of a pilot seismic landslide monitoring system was taken place in the Avcilar-Beylikdüzü Peninsula, a large landslide prone area located in westward part of Istanbul and facing the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). An integrated approach based on multi-parameter seafloor observatories was implemented to continuously monitor the micro-seismicity along with the fluid expulsion activity within the submerged fault zone. During MARSite, strong integration and links had been established with major European initiatives focused on the collection of multidisciplinary data, their dissemination, interpretation and fusion to produce consistent theoretical and practical models, the implementation of good practices so as to provide the necessary information to end users, and the updating of seismic hazard and risk evaluations in the Marmara region. In this perspective, to continue the understanding of and improvement in the preparedness for geological disasters, the existing monitoring infrastructure of Marsite requires the continuation of a strong a European initiative. This presentation will provide a venue for information exchange towards the establishment of such an initiative.

Comparative study on diagonal equivalent methods of masonry infill panel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amalia, Aniendhita Rizki; Iranata, Data

2017-06-01

Infrastructure construction in earthquake prone area needs good design process, including modeling a structure in a correct way to reduce damages caused by an earthquake. Earthquakes cause many damages e.g. collapsed buildings that are dangerous. An incorrect modeling in design process certainly affects the structure's ability in responding to load, i.e. an earthquake load, and it needs to be paid attention to in order to reduce damages and fatalities. A correct modeling considers every aspect that affects the strength of a building, including stiffness of resisting lateral loads caused by an earthquake. Most of structural analyses still use open frame method that does not consider the effect of stiffness of masonry panel to the stiffness and strength of the whole structure. Effect of masonry panel is usually not included in design process, but the presence of this panel greatly affects behavior of the building in responding to an earthquake. In worst case scenario, it can even cause the building to collapse as what has been reported after great earthquakes worldwide. Modeling a structure with masonry panel as consideration can be performed by designing the panel as compression brace or shell element. In designing masonry panel as a compression brace, there are fourteen methods popular to be used by structure designers formulated by Saneinejad-Hobbs, Holmes, Stafford-Smith, Mainstones, Mainstones-Weeks, Bazan-Meli, Liauw Kwan, Paulay and Priestley, FEMA 356, Durani Luo, Hendry, Al-Chaar, Papia and Chen-Iranata. Every method has its own equation and parameters to use, therefore the model of every method was compared to results of experimental test to see which one gives closer values. Moreover, those methods also need to be compared to the open frame to see if they can result values within limits. Experimental test that was used in comparing all methods was taken from Mehrabi's research (Fig. 1), which was a prototype of a frame in a structure with 0.5 scale and the ratio of height to width of 1 to 1.5. Load used in the experiment was based on Uniform Building Code (UBC) 1991. Every method compared was calculated first to get equivalent diagonal strut width. The second step was modelling method using structure analysis software as a frame with a diagonal in a linear mode. The linear mode was chosen based on structure analysis commonly used by structure designers. The frame was loaded and for every model, its load and deformation values were identified. The values of load - deformation of every method were compared to those of experimental test specimen by Mehrabi and open frame. From comparative study performed, Holmes' and Bazan-Meli's equations gave results the closest to the experimental test specimen by Mehrabi. Other equations that gave close values within the limit (by comparing it to the open frame) are Saneinejad-Hobbs, Stafford-Smith, Bazan-Meli, Liauw Kwan, Paulay and Priestley, FEMA 356, Durani Luo, Hendry, Papia and Chen-Iranata.

General Vulnerability and Exposure Profile to Tsunami in Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz, R.; Huérfano-Moreno, V.

2012-12-01

The Puerto Rico archipelago, located in the seismically active Caribbean region, has been directly affected by tsunamis in the last two centuries. The M 7.3 tsunamigenic earthquake, which occurred on October 11, 1918, caused $29 million in damage, death of 116 people and 100 residents were reported as missing. Presently, deficiencies on urban planning have induced an increase on the number of vulnerable people living inside the tsunami flood areas. Tsunami-prone areas have been delimited for Puerto Rico based on numerical tsunami modeling. However, the demographic, social and physical (e.g. critical and essential facilities) characteristics of these areas have not been documented in detail. We are conducting a municipality and community-level tsunami vulnerability and exposure study using Geographical Information System (GIS) tool. The results of our study are being integrated into the Puerto Rico Disaster Decision Support Tool (DDST). The DDST is a tool that brings access, at no cost, to a variety of updated geo-referenced information for Puerto Rico. This tool provides internet-based scalable maps that will aid emergency managers and decision-makers on their responsibilities and will improve Puerto Rico communities' resilience against tsunami hazard. This project aims to provide an initial estimate of Puerto Rico vulnerability and exposure to tsunami and brings to the community a technological tool that will help increase their awareness of this hazard and to assist them on their decisions.

Tsunami hazard map in eastern Bali

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afif, Haunan; Cipta, Athanasius

2015-04-01

Bali is a popular tourist destination both for Indonesian and foreign visitors. However, Bali is located close to the collision zone between the Indo-Australian Plate and Eurasian Plate in the south and back-arc thrust off the northern coast of Bali resulted Bali prone to earthquake and tsunami. Tsunami hazard map is needed for better understanding of hazard level in a particular area and tsunami modeling is one of the most reliable techniques to produce hazard map. Tsunami modeling conducted using TUNAMI N2 and set for two tsunami sources scenarios which are subduction zone in the south of Bali and back thrust in the north of Bali. Tsunami hazard zone is divided into 3 zones, the first is a high hazard zones with inundation height of more than 3m. The second is a moderate hazard zone with inundation height 1 to 3m and the third is a low tsunami hazard zones with tsunami inundation heights less than 1m. Those 2 scenarios showed southern region has a greater potential of tsunami impact than the northern areas. This is obviously shown in the distribution of the inundated area in the south of Bali including the island of Nusa Penida, Nusa Lembongan and Nusa Ceningan is wider than in the northern coast of Bali although the northern region of the Nusa Penida Island more inundated due to the coastal topography.

Tsunami hazard map in eastern Bali

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Afif, Haunan, E-mail: afif@vsi.esdm.go.id; Cipta, Athanasius; Australian National University, Canberra

Bali is a popular tourist destination both for Indonesian and foreign visitors. However, Bali is located close to the collision zone between the Indo-Australian Plate and Eurasian Plate in the south and back-arc thrust off the northern coast of Bali resulted Bali prone to earthquake and tsunami. Tsunami hazard map is needed for better understanding of hazard level in a particular area and tsunami modeling is one of the most reliable techniques to produce hazard map. Tsunami modeling conducted using TUNAMI N2 and set for two tsunami sources scenarios which are subduction zone in the south of Bali and backmore » thrust in the north of Bali. Tsunami hazard zone is divided into 3 zones, the first is a high hazard zones with inundation height of more than 3m. The second is a moderate hazard zone with inundation height 1 to 3m and the third is a low tsunami hazard zones with tsunami inundation heights less than 1m. Those 2 scenarios showed southern region has a greater potential of tsunami impact than the northern areas. This is obviously shown in the distribution of the inundated area in the south of Bali including the island of Nusa Penida, Nusa Lembongan and Nusa Ceningan is wider than in the northern coast of Bali although the northern region of the Nusa Penida Island more inundated due to the coastal topography.« less

Earthquake hazard assessment in the Zagros Orogenic Belt of Iran using a fuzzy rule-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farahi Ghasre Aboonasr, Sedigheh; Zamani, Ahmad; Razavipour, Fatemeh; Boostani, Reza

2017-08-01

Producing accurate seismic hazard map and predicting hazardous areas is necessary for risk mitigation strategies. In this paper, a fuzzy logic inference system is utilized to estimate the earthquake potential and seismic zoning of Zagros Orogenic Belt. In addition to the interpretability, fuzzy predictors can capture both nonlinearity and chaotic behavior of data, where the number of data is limited. In this paper, earthquake pattern in the Zagros has been assessed for the intervals of 10 and 50 years using fuzzy rule-based model. The Molchan statistical procedure has been used to show that our forecasting model is reliable. The earthquake hazard maps for this area reveal some remarkable features that cannot be observed on the conventional maps. Regarding our achievements, some areas in the southern (Bandar Abbas), southwestern (Bandar Kangan) and western (Kermanshah) parts of Iran display high earthquake severity even though they are geographically far apart.

Predicting the seismic performance of typical R/C healthcare facilities: emphasis on hospitals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilgin, Huseyin; Frangu, Idlir

2017-09-01

Reinforced concrete (RC) type of buildings constitutes an important part of the current building stock in earthquake prone countries such as Albania. Seismic response of structures during a severe earthquake plays a vital role in the extent of structural damage and resulting injuries and losses. In this context, this study evaluates the expected performance of a five-story RC healthcare facility, representative of common practice in Albania, designed according to older codes. The design was based on the code requirements used in this region during the mid-1980s. Non-linear static and dynamic time history analyses were conducted on the structural model using the Zeus NL computer program. The dynamic time history analysis was conducted with a set of ground motions from real earthquakes. The building responses were estimated in global levels. FEMA 356 criteria were used to predict the seismic performance of the building. The structural response measures such as capacity curve and inter-story drift under the set of ground motions and pushover analyses results were compared and detailed seismic performance assessment was done. The main aim of this study is considering the application and methodology for the earthquake performance assessment of existing buildings. The seismic performance of the structural model varied significantly under different ground motions. Results indicate that case study building exhibit inadequate seismic performance under different seismic excitations. In addition, reasons for the poor performance of the building is discussed.

Earthquake Rate Model 2.2 of the 2007 Working Group for California Earthquake Probabilities, Appendix D: Magnitude-Area Relationships

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stein, Ross S.

2007-01-01

Summary To estimate the down-dip coseismic fault dimension, W, the Executive Committee has chosen the Nazareth and Hauksson (2004) method, which uses the 99% depth of background seismicity to assign W. For the predicted earthquake magnitude-fault area scaling used to estimate the maximum magnitude of an earthquake rupture from a fault's length, L, and W, the Committee has assigned equal weight to the Ellsworth B (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 2003) and Hanks and Bakun (2002) (as updated in 2007) equations. The former uses a single relation; the latter uses a bilinear relation which changes slope at M=6.65 (A=537 km2).

Earthquakes and faults in the San Francisco Bay area (1970-2003)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Calzia, James P.; Walter, Stephen R.; Wong, Florence L.; Saucedo, George J.

2004-01-01

The map depicts both active and inactive faults and earthquakes magnitude 1.5 to 7.0 in the greater San Francisco Bay area. Twenty-two earthquakes magnitude 5.0 and greater are indicated on the map and listed chronologically in an accompanying table. The data are compiled from records from 1970-2003. The bathymetry was generated from a digital version of NOAA maps and hydrogeographic data for San Francisco Bay. Elevation data are from the USGS National Elevation Database. Landsat satellite image is from seven Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus scenes. Fault data are reproduced with permission from the California Geological Survey. The earthquake data are from the Northern California Earthquake Catalog.

Seismicity remotely triggered by the magnitude 7.3 landers, california, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, D.P.; Reasenberg, P.A.; Michael, A.; Arabaz, W.J.; Beroza, G.; Brumbaugh, D.; Brune, J.N.; Castro, R.; Davis, S.; Depolo, D.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Gomberg, J.; Harmsen, S.; House, L.; Jackson, S.M.; Johnston, M.J.S.; Jones, L.; Keller, Rebecca Hylton; Malone, S.; Munguia, L.; Nava, S.; Pechmann, J.C.; Sanford, A.; Simpson, R.W.; Smith, R.B.; Stark, M.; Stickney, M.; Vidal, A.; Walter, S.; Wong, V.; Zollweg, J.

1993-01-01

The magnitude 7.3 Landers earthquake of 28 June 1992 triggered a remarkably sudden and widespread increase in earthquake activity across much of the western United States. The triggered earthquakes, which occurred at distances up to 1250 kilometers (17 source dimensions) from the Landers mainshock, were confined to areas of persistent seismicity and strike-slip to normal faulting. Many of the triggered areas also are sites of geothermal and recent volcanic activity. Static stress changes calculated for elastic models of the earthquake appear to be too small to have caused the triggering. The most promising explanations involve nonlinear interactions between large dynamic strains accompanying seismic waves from the mainshock and crustal fluids (perhaps including crustal magma).

Repeating Deep Very Low Frequency Earthquakes: An Evidence of Transition Zone between Brittle and Ductile Zone along Plate Boundary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishihara, Y.; Yamamoto, Y.; Arai, R.

2017-12-01

Recently slow or low frequency seismic and geodetic events are focused under recognition of important role in tectonic process. The most western region of Ryukyu trench, Yaeyama Islands, is very active area of these type events. It has semiannual-like slow slip (Heki et.al., 2008; Nishimura et.al.,2014) and very frequent shallow very low frequency earthquakes near trench zone (Ando et.al.,2012; Nakamura et.al.,2014). Arai et.al.(2016) identified clear reverse phase discontinuity along plate boundary by air-gun survey, suggesting existence of low velocity layer including fluid. The subducting fluid layer is considered to control slip characteristics. On the other hand, deep low frequency earthquake and tremor observed at south-western Honshu and Shikoku of Japan are not identified well due to lack of high-quality seismic network. A broadband seismic station(ISG/PS) of Pacific21 network is operating in last 20 years that locates on occurrence potential area of low frequency earthquake. We tried to review continuous broadband record, searching low frequency earthquakes. In pilot survey, we found three very low frequency seismic events which are dominant in less than 0.1Hz component and are not listed in earthquake catalogue. Source locates about 50km depth and at transition area between slow slip event and active area of general earthquake along plate boundary. To detect small and/or hidden very low frequency earthquake, we applied matched filter analysis to continuous three components waveform data using pre-reviewed seismogram as template signal. 12 events with high correlation are picked up in last 10 years. Most events have very similar waveform, which means characteristics of repeating deep very low frequency earthquake. The event history of very low frequency earthquake is not related with one of slow slip event in this region. In Yaeyama region, low frequency earthquake, general earthquake and slow slip event occur dividing in space and have apparent independent activity. Further 3D survey around plate boundary may take us important understanding of controlling feature of seismic and geodetic slip.

Geomorphic Flood Area (GFA): a DEM-based tool for flood susceptibility mapping at large scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manfreda, S.; Samela, C.; Albano, R.; Sole, A.

2017-12-01

Flood hazard and risk mapping over large areas is a critical issue. Recently, many researchers are trying to achieve a global scale mapping encountering several difficulties, above all the lack of data and implementation costs. In data scarce environments, a preliminary and cost-effective floodplain delineation can be performed using geomorphic methods (e.g., Manfreda et al., 2014). We carried out several years of research on this topic, proposing a morphologic descriptor named Geomorphic Flood Index (GFI) (Samela et al., 2017) and developing a Digital Elevation Model (DEM)-based procedure able to identify flood susceptible areas. The procedure exhibited high accuracy in several test sites in Europe, United States and Africa (Manfreda et al., 2015; Samela et al., 2016, 2017) and has been recently implemented in a QGIS plugin named Geomorphic Flood Area (GFA) - tool. The tool allows to automatically compute the GFI, and turn it into a linear binary classifier capable of detecting flood-prone areas. To train this classifier, an inundation map derived using hydraulic models for a small portion of the basin is required (the minimum is 2% of the river basin's area). In this way, the GFA-tool allows to extend the classification of the flood-prone areas across the entire basin. We are also defining a simplified procedure for the estimation of the river depth, which may be helpful for large-scale analyses to approximatively evaluate the expected flood damages in the surrounding areas. ReferencesManfreda, S., Nardi, F., Samela, C., Grimaldi, S., Taramasso, A. C., Roth, G., & Sole, A. (2014). Investigation on the use of geomorphic approaches for the delineation of flood prone areas. J. Hydrol., 517, 863-876. Manfreda, S., Samela, C., Gioia, A., Consoli, G., Iacobellis, V., Giuzio, L., & Sole, A. (2016). Flood-prone areas assessment using linear binary classifiers based on flood maps obtained from 1D and 2D hydraulic models. Nat. Hazards, Vol. 79 (2), pp 735-754. Samela, C., Manfreda, S., Paola, F. D., Giugni, M., Sole, A., & Fiorentino, M. (2016). DEM-Based Approaches for the Delineation of Flood-Prone Areas in an Ungauged Basin in Africa. J. Hydrol. Eng,, 06015010. Samela, C., Troy, T. J., & Manfreda, S. (2017a). Geomorphic classifiers for flood-prone areas delineation for data-scarce environments. Adv. Water Resour., 102, 13-28.

A Case Study of Geologic Hazards Affecting School Buildings: Evaluating Seismic Structural Vulnerability and Landslide Hazards at Schools in Aizawl, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perley, M. M.; Guo, J.

2016-12-01

India's National School Safety Program (NSSP) aims to assess all government schools in earthquake prone regions of the country. To supplement the Mizoram State Government's recent survey of 141 government schools, we screened an additional 16 private and 4 government schools for structural vulnerabilities due to earthquakes, as well as landslide hazards, in Mizoram's capital of Aizawl. We developed a geomorphologically derived landslide susceptibility matrix, which was cross-checked with Aizawl Municipal Corporation's landslide hazard map (provided by Lettis Consultants International), to determine the geologic hazards at each school. Our research indicates that only 7% of the 22 assessed school buildings are located within low landslide hazard zones; 64% of the school buildings, with approximately 9,500 students, are located within very high or high landslide hazard zones. Rapid Visual Screening (RVS) was used to determine the structural earthquake vulnerability of each school building. RVS is an initial vulnerability assessment procedure used to inventory and rank buildings that may be hazardous during an earthquake. Our study indicates that all of the 22 assessed school buildings have a damageability rating of Grade 3 or higher on the 5-grade EMS scale, suggesting a significant vulnerability and potential for damage in buildings, ranging from widespread cracking of columns and beam column joints to collapse. Additionally, 86% of the schools we visited had reinforced concrete buildings constructed before Aizawl's building regulations were passed in 2007, which can be assumed to lack appropriate seismic reinforcement. Using our findings, we will give recommendations to the Government of Mizoram to prevent unnecessary loss of life by minimizing each school's landslide risk and ensuring schools are earthquake-resistant.

Effects of Regulation on Induced Seismicity in Southern Kansas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubinstein, J. L.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Dougherty, S. L.

2016-12-01

The appearance of seismicity concurrent with the expansion of oil and gas activities in southern Kansas since September 2012 suggests that industrial operations are inducing earthquakes there. Much of the seismicity can be related to high-rate injection wells within 5 km of the earthquakes. There is significant complexity to the situation, though. Some of the seismicity, including the 2014 M4.8 Milan earthquake, the largest earthquake to occur in the area, lies at least 10km from high-rate injection wells. Additionally, the presence of high-rate wells does not guarantee that there will be nearby seismicity. Many of the highest-rate injection wells are located to the southwest of our study area, where there is minimal seismicity. We have also seen changes in earthquake rates shortly following the March 2015 enactment of new limits on the rate of wastewater disposal in five areas in southern Kansas. Overall, the earthquake rate has decreased significantly since these rules went into place. In more detail, however, earthquake rates within the five areas decreased, but the rate outside the five zones increased. It is likely that fluid-pressure diffusion is responsible for the migration of seismicity outside the areas of reduced injection because there is little injection in the areas unaffected by the new injection rules. This increase is also a reminder that seismicity can persist long after the reduction or cessation of injection. In addition to the effect of the new injection rules, it is possible that the reduction in injection may be partially caused by economic factors that have resulted in a decrease in the production of oil and gas. We have yet to disentangle the effects of the new injection rules and the low prices of oil and gas on the induced seismicity in southern Kansas.

Impact of the 2001 Tohoku-oki earthquake to Tokyo Metropolitan area observed by the Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, N.; Hayashi, H.; Nakagawa, S.; Sakai, S.; Honda, R.; Kasahara, K.; Obara, K.; Aketagawa, T.; Kimura, H.; Sato, H.; Okaya, D. A.

2011-12-01

The March 11, 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake brought a great impact to the Tokyo metropolitan area in both seismological aspect and seismic risk management although Tokyo is located 340 km from the epicenter. The event generated very strong ground motion even in the metropolitan area and resulted severe requifaction in many places of Kanto district. National and local governments have started to discuss counter measurement for possible seismic risks in the area taking account for what they learned from the Tohoku-oki event which is much larger than ever experienced in Japan Risk mitigation strategy for the next greater earthquake caused by the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducting beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area is of major concern because it caused past mega-thrust earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (M8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M7.9). An M7 or greater (M7+) earthquake in this area at present has high potential to produce devastating loss of life and property with even greater global economic repercussions. The Central Disaster Management Council of Japan estimates that an M7+ earthquake will cause 11,000 fatalities and 112 trillion yen (about 1 trillion US$) economic loss. In order to mitigate disaster for greater Tokyo, the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area was launched in collaboration with scientists, engineers, and social-scientists in nationwide institutions. We will discuss the main results that are obtained in the respective fields which have been integrated to improve information on the strategy assessment for seismic risk mitigation in the Tokyo metropolitan area; the project has been much improved after the Tohoku event. In order to image seismic structure beneath the Metropolitan Tokyo area we have developed Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net; Hirata et al., 2009). We have installed 296 seismic stations every few km (Kasahara et al., 2011). We conducted seismic tomography of P- and S- wave structure, seismic interferometry for shallow structure and using the dense MeSO-net data. We observed the 2011 Tohoku-oki event and its aftershocks including M7.7 event off Ibaraki prefecture, which is the largest aftershock so far. We imaged source radiation energy using the MeSO-net data by the back-projection method (Honda et al., 2011). We found seismic activity in the Kanto region has been activated after the event, suggesting increased seismic hazard in Kanto region even for plate boundary events. We use a new image of PSP and Pacific plate. We evaluate potential zones of the M7+ earthquake on the plate boundary and within the PSP slab which will be used for risk mitigation study by a socio-science group. We will also discuss a future plan to continue our effort in seismic risk mitigation in Tokyo Metropolitan area, stress regime of which is seriously changed by the Tohoku-oki event. This is supported by the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Tokyo Metropolitan Area

Analysis of Landslides Triggered by October 2005, Kashmir Earthquake

PubMed Central

Mahmood, Irfan; Qureshi, Shahid Nadeem; Tariq, Shahina; Atique, Luqman; Iqbal, Muhammad Farooq

2015-01-01

Introduction: The October 2005, Kashmir earthquake main event was triggered along the Balakot-Bagh Fault which runs from Bagh to Balakot, and caused more damages in and around these areas. Major landslides were activated during and after the earthquake inflicting large damages in the area, both in terms of infrastructure and casualties. These landslides were mainly attributed to the minimum threshold of the earthquake, geology of the area, climatologic and geomorphologic conditions, mudflows, widening of the roads without stability assessment, and heavy rainfall after the earthquake. These landslides were mainly rock and debris falls. Hattian Bala rock avalanche was largest landslide associated with the earthquake which completely destroyed a village and blocked the valley creating a lake. Discussion: The present study shows that the fault rupture and fault geometry have direct influence on the distribution of landslides and that along the rupture zone a high frequency band of landslides was triggered. There was an increase in number of landslides due to 2005 earthquake and its aftershocks and that most of earthquakes have occurred along faults, rivers and roads. It is observed that the stability of landslide mass is greatly influenced by amplitude, frequency and duration of earthquake induced ground motion. Most of the slope failures along the roads resulted from the alteration of these slopes during widening of the roads, and seepages during the rainy season immediately after the earthquake. Conclusion: Landslides occurred mostly along weakly cemented and indurated rocks, colluvial sand and cemented soils. It is also worth noting that fissures and ground crack which were induced by main and after shock are still present and they pose a major potential threat for future landslides in case of another earthquake activity or under extreme weather conditions. PMID:26366324

Analysis of Landslides Triggered by October 2005, Kashmir Earthquake.

PubMed

Mahmood, Irfan; Qureshi, Shahid Nadeem; Tariq, Shahina; Atique, Luqman; Iqbal, Muhammad Farooq

2015-08-26

The October 2005, Kashmir earthquake main event was triggered along the Balakot-Bagh Fault which runs from Bagh to Balakot, and caused more damages in and around these areas. Major landslides were activated during and after the earthquake inflicting large damages in the area, both in terms of infrastructure and casualties. These landslides were mainly attributed to the minimum threshold of the earthquake, geology of the area, climatologic and geomorphologic conditions, mudflows, widening of the roads without stability assessment, and heavy rainfall after the earthquake. These landslides were mainly rock and debris falls. Hattian Bala rock avalanche was largest landslide associated with the earthquake which completely destroyed a village and blocked the valley creating a lake. The present study shows that the fault rupture and fault geometry have direct influence on the distribution of landslides and that along the rupture zone a high frequency band of landslides was triggered. There was an increase in number of landslides due to 2005 earthquake and its aftershocks and that most of earthquakes have occurred along faults, rivers and roads. It is observed that the stability of landslide mass is greatly influenced by amplitude, frequency and duration of earthquake induced ground motion. Most of the slope failures along the roads resulted from the alteration of these slopes during widening of the roads, and seepages during the rainy season immediately after the earthquake.  Landslides occurred mostly along weakly cemented and indurated rocks, colluvial sand and cemented soils. It is also worth noting that fissures and ground crack which were induced by main and after shock are still present and they pose a major potential threat for future landslides in case of another earthquake activity or under extreme weather conditions.

Statistical analysis of the ionospheric ion density recorded by DEMETER in the epicenter areas of earthquakes as well as in their magnetically conjugate point areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Mei; Parrot, Michel

2018-02-01

Results of a statistical variation of total ion density observed in the vicinity of epicenters as well as around magnetically conjugated points of earthquakes are presented in this paper. Two data sets are used: the ion density measured by DEMETER during about 6.5 years and the list of strong earthquakes (MW ≥ 4.8) occurring globally during this period (14,764 earthquakes in total). First of all, ionospheric perturbations with 23-120 s observation time corresponding to spatial scales of 160-840 km are automatically detected by a software (64,287 anomalies in total). Second, it is checked if a perturbation could be associated either with the epicenter of an earthquake or with its magnetically conjugated point (distance < 1500 km and time < 15 days before the earthquake). The index Kp < 3 is also considered in order to reduce the effect of the geomagnetic activity on the ionosphere during this period. The results show that it is possible to detect variations of the ionospheric parameters above the epicenter areas as well as above their conjugated points. About one third of the earthquakes are detected with ionospheric influence on both sides of the Earth. There is a trend showing that the perturbation length increases as the magnitude of the detected EQs but it is more obvious for large magnitude. The probability that a perturbation appears is higher on the day of the earthquake and then gradually decreases when the time before the earthquake increases. The spatial distribution of perturbations shows that the probability of perturbations appearing southeast of the epicenter before an earthquake is a little bit higher and that there is an obvious trend because perturbations appear west of the conjugated point of an earthquake.

Observations of the rupture development process from source time functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renou, Julien; Vallée, Martin

2017-04-01

The mechanisms governing the seismic rupture expansion and leading to earthquakes of very different magnitudes are still under debate. In the cascade model, the rupture starts from a very small patch, which size is undetectable by seismological investigation. Then rupture grows in a self-similar way, implying that no clues about the earthquake magnitude can be found before rupture starts declining. However dependencies between early phases of the rupture process and final magnitude have also been proposed, which can be explained if an earthquake is more likely to be a big one when its start and early development occur in rupture-prone areas. Here, the analysis of the early phases of the seismic rupture is achieved from an observational point of view using the SCARDEC database, a global catalog containing more than 3000 Source Time Functions (STFs) of earthquakes with magnitude larger than 5.7. This dataset is theoretically very suitable to investigate the initial phase, because STFs directly describe the seismic moment rate released over time, giving access to the rupture growth behavior. As several studies already showed that deep earthquakes tend to have a specific signature of short duration with respect to magnitude (implying a quicker rupture growth than superficial events), only shallow events (depths < 70km) are analyzed here. Our method consists in computing the STFs slope, i.e. the seismic moment acceleration, at several prescribed moment rates. In order to ensure that the chosen moment rates intersect the growth phase of the STF, its value must be high enough to avoid the very beginning of the signal -not well constrained in the deconvolution process-, and low enough to avoid the proximity of the peak moment rate. This approach does not use any rupture time information, which is interesting as (1) the exact hypocentral time can be uncertain and (2) the real rupture expansion can be delayed compared to origin time. If any magnitude-dependent signal exists, the average or median value of the slope should vary with the magnitude of the events, despite the intrinsic variability of the STFs. The preliminary results from the SCARDEC dataset seem to only exhibit a weak dependence of the slope with magnitude, in the magnitude domain where the chosen moment rate value crosses most of the STFs onsets. In addition, our results point out that slope values gradually increase with the moment rate. These findings will be discussed in the frame of the existing models of seismic rupture expansion.

A Promising Tool to Assess Long Term Public Health Effects of Natural Disasters: Combining Routine Health Survey Data and Geographic Information Systems to Assess Stunting after the 2001 Earthquake in Peru

PubMed Central

Rydberg, Henny; Marrone, Gaetano; Strömdahl, Susanne; von Schreeb, Johan

2015-01-01

Background Research on long-term health effects of earthquakes is scarce, especially in low- and middle-income countries, which are disproportionately affected by disasters. To date, progress in this area has been hampered by the lack of tools to accurately measure these effects. Here, we explored whether long-term public health effects of earthquakes can be assessed using a combination of readily available data sources on public health and geographic distribution of seismic activity. Methods We used childhood stunting as a proxy for public health effects. Data on stunting were attained from Demographic and Health Surveys. Earthquake data were obtained from U.S. Geological Survey’s ShakeMaps, geographic information system-based maps that divide earthquake affected areas into different shaking intensity zones. We combined these two data sources to categorize the surveyed children into different earthquake exposure groups, based on how much their area of residence was affected by the earthquake. We assessed the feasibility of the approach using a real earthquake case – an 8.4 magnitude earthquake that hit southern Peru in 2001. Results and conclusions Our results indicate that the combination of health survey data and disaster data may offer a readily accessible and accurate method for determining the long-term public health consequences of a natural disaster. Our work allowed us to make pre- and post- earthquake comparisons of stunting, an important indicator of the well-being of a society, as well as comparisons between populations with different levels of exposure to the earthquake. Furthermore, the detailed GIS based data provided a precise and objective definition of earthquake exposure. Our approach should be considered in future public health and disaster research exploring the long-term effects of earthquakes and potentially other natural disasters. PMID:26090999

A Promising Tool to Assess Long Term Public Health Effects of Natural Disasters: Combining Routine Health Survey Data and Geographic Information Systems to Assess Stunting after the 2001 Earthquake in Peru.

PubMed

Rydberg, Henny; Marrone, Gaetano; Strömdahl, Susanne; von Schreeb, Johan

2015-01-01

Research on long-term health effects of earthquakes is scarce, especially in low- and middle-income countries, which are disproportionately affected by disasters. To date, progress in this area has been hampered by the lack of tools to accurately measure these effects. Here, we explored whether long-term public health effects of earthquakes can be assessed using a combination of readily available data sources on public health and geographic distribution of seismic activity. We used childhood stunting as a proxy for public health effects. Data on stunting were attained from Demographic and Health Surveys. Earthquake data were obtained from U.S. Geological Survey's ShakeMaps, geographic information system-based maps that divide earthquake affected areas into different shaking intensity zones. We combined these two data sources to categorize the surveyed children into different earthquake exposure groups, based on how much their area of residence was affected by the earthquake. We assessed the feasibility of the approach using a real earthquake case--an 8.4 magnitude earthquake that hit southern Peru in 2001. Our results indicate that the combination of health survey data and disaster data may offer a readily accessible and accurate method for determining the long-term public health consequences of a natural disaster. Our work allowed us to make pre- and post-earthquake comparisons of stunting, an important indicator of the well-being of a society, as well as comparisons between populations with different levels of exposure to the earthquake. Furthermore, the detailed GIS based data provided a precise and objective definition of earthquake exposure. Our approach should be considered in future public health and disaster research exploring the long-term effects of earthquakes and potentially other natural disasters.

Time-dependent earthquake forecasting: Method and application to the Italian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, C.; Sorensen, M. B.; Grünthal, G.; Hakimhashemi, A.; Heidbach, O.; Stromeyer, D.; Bosse, C.

2009-12-01

We develop a new approach for time-dependent earthquake forecasting and apply it to the Italian region. In our approach, the seismicity density is represented by a bandwidth function as a smoothing Kernel in the neighboring region of earthquakes. To consider the fault-interaction-based forecasting, we calculate the Coulomb stress change imparted by each earthquake in the study area. From this, the change of seismicity rate as a function of time can be estimated by the concept of rate-and-state stress transfer. We apply our approach to the region of Italy and earthquakes that occurred before 2003 to generate the seismicity density. To validate our approach, we compare our estimated seismicity density with the distribution of earthquakes with M≥3.8 after 2004. A positive correlation is found and all of the examined earthquakes locate in the area of the highest 66 percentile of seismicity density in the study region. Furthermore, the seismicity density corresponding to the epicenter of the 2009 April 6, Mw = 6.3, L’Aquila earthquake is in the area of the highest 5 percentile. For the time-dependent seismicity rate change, we estimate the rate-and-state stress transfer imparted by the M≥5.0 earthquakes occurred in the past 50 years. It suggests that the seismicity rate has increased at the locations of 65% of the examined earthquakes. Applying this approach to the L’Aquila sequence by considering seven M≥5.0 aftershocks as well as the main shock, not only spatial but also temporal forecasting of the aftershock distribution is significant.

Chimney damage in the greater Seattle area from the Nisqually earthquake of 28 February 2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Booth, D.B.; Wells, R.E.; Givler, R.W.

2004-01-01

Unreinforced brick chimneys in the greater Seattle area were damaged repeatedly in the Benioff zone earthquakes of 1949, 1965, and 2001. A survey of visible chimney damage after the 28 February 2001 Nisqually earthquake evaluated approximately 60,000 chimneys through block-by-block coverage of about 50 km2, identifying a total of 1556 damaged chimneys. Chimney damage was strongly clustered in certain areas, in particular in the neighborhood of West Seattle where prior damage was also noted and evaluated after the 1965 earthquake. Our results showed that damage produced by the 2001 earthquake did not obviously correspond to distance from the earthquake epicenter, soft soils, topography, or slope orientation. Chimney damage correlates well to instrumented strong-motion measurements and compiled resident-reported ground-shaking intensities, but it offers much finer spatial resolution than these other data sources. In general, most areas of greatest chimney damage coincide with best estimated locations of strands of the Seattle fault zone. The edge of that zone also coincides with areas where chimney damage dropped abruptly over only one or two blocks' distance. The association between shaking intensity and fault-zone structure suggests that abrupt changes in the depth to bedrock, edge effects at the margin of the Seattle basin, or localized trapping of seismic waves in the Seattle fault zone may be significant contributory factors in the distribution of chimney damage.

Safe-Taipei a Program Project for Strong Motions, Active Faults, and Earthquakes in the Taipei Metropolitan Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jeen-Hwa

Strong collision between the Eurasian and Philippine Sea Plates causes high seismicity in the Taiwan region, which is often attacked by large earthquakes. Several cities, including three mega-cities, i.e., Taipei, Taichung, and Kaoshung, have been constructed on western Taiwan, where is lying on thick sediments. These cities, with a high-population density, are usually a regional center of culture, economics, and politics. Historically, larger-sized earthquakes, e.g. the 1935 Hsingchu—Taichung earthquake and the 1999 Chi—Chi earthquake, often caused serious damage on the cities. Hence, urban seismology must be one of the main subjects of Taiwan's seismological community. Since 2005, a program project, sponsored by Academia Sinica, has been launched to investigate seismological problems in the Taipei Metropolitan Area. This program project is performed during the 2005—2007 period. The core research subjects are: (1) the deployment of the Taipei Down-hole Seismic Array; (2) the properties of earthquakes and active faults in the area; (3) the seismogenic-zone structures, including the 3-D velocity and Q structures, of the area; (4) the characteristics of strong-motions and sites affects; and (5) strong-motion prediction. In addition to academic goals, the results obtained from the program project will be useful for seismic hazard mitigation not only for the area but also for others.

The Quanzhou large earthquake: environment impact and deep process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

WANG, Y.; Gao*, R.; Ye, Z.; Wang, C.

2017-12-01

The Quanzhou earthquake is the largest earthquake in China's southeast coast in history. The ancient city of Quanzhou and its adjacent areas suffered serious damage. Analysis of the impact of Quanzhou earthquake on human activities, ecological environment and social development will provide an example for the research on environment and human interaction.According to historical records, on the night of December 29, 1604, a Ms 8.0 earthquake occurred in the sea area at the east of Quanzhou (25.0°N, 119.5°E) with a focal depth of 25 kilometers. It affected to a maximum distance of 220 kilometers from the epicenter and caused serious damage. Quanzhou, which has been known as one of the world's largest trade ports during Song and Yuan periods was heavily destroyed by this earthquake. The destruction of the ancient city was very serious and widespread. The city wall collapsed in Putian, Nanan, Tongan and other places. The East and West Towers of Kaiyuan Temple, which are famous with magnificent architecture in history, were seriously destroyed.Therefore, an enormous earthquake can exert devastating effects on human activities and social development in the history. It is estimated that a more than Ms. 5.0 earthquake in the economically developed coastal areas in China can directly cause economic losses for more than one hundred million yuan. This devastating large earthquake that severely destroyed the Quanzhou city was triggered under a tectonic-extensional circumstance. In this coastal area of the Fujian Province, the crust gradually thins eastward from inland to coast (less than 29 km thick crust beneath the coast), the lithosphere is also rather thin (60 70 km), and the Poisson's ratio of the crust here appears relatively high. The historical Quanzhou Earthquake was probably correlated with the NE-striking Littoral Fault Zone, which is characterized by right-lateral slip and exhibiting the most active seismicity in the coastal area of Fujian. Meanwhile, tectonic stress field study reveals that the principal compressive stress in the coastal area of Fujian is oriented to NW-NWW, consistent with that manifested in the Taiwan Strait and Taiwan Island, and was inferred to be dominated by the Philippine Sea-Eurasia plate collision. Corresponding Author: R.Gao, ruigao126@126.com

Increasing flood exposure in the Netherlands: implications for risk financing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jongman, B.; Koks, E. E.; Husby, T. G.; Ward, P. J.

2014-05-01

The effectiveness of disaster risk management and financing mechanisms depends on an accurate assessment of current and future hazard exposure. The increasing availability of detailed data offers policy makers and the insurance sector new opportunities to understand trends in risk, and to make informed decisions on ways to deal with these trends. In this paper we show how comprehensive property level information can be used for the assessment of exposure to flooding on a national scale, and how this information provides valuable input to discussions on possible risk financing practices. The case study used is the Netherlands, which is one of the countries most exposed to flooding globally, and which is currently undergoing a debate on strategies for the compensation of potential losses. Our results show that flood exposure has increased rapidly between 1960 and 2012, and that the growth of the building stock and its economic value in flood-prone areas has been higher than in non-flood-prone areas. We also find that property values in flood-prone areas are lower than those in non-flood-prone areas. We argue that the increase in the share of economic value located in potential flood-prone areas can have a negative effect on the feasibility of private insurance schemes in the Netherlands. The methodologies and results presented in this study are relevant for many regions around the world where the effects of rising flood exposure create a challenge for risk financing.

Financing increasing flood risk: evidence from millions of buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jongman, B.; Koks, E. E.; Husby, T. G.; Ward, P. J.

2014-01-01

The effectiveness of disaster risk management and financing mechanisms depends on the accurate assessment of current and future hazard exposure. The increasing availability of detailed data offers policy makers and the insurance sector new opportunities to understand trends in risk, and to make informed decisions on the ways to deal with these trends. In this paper we show how comprehensive property level information can be used for the assessment of exposure to flooding on a national scale, and how this information can contribute to discussions on possible risk financing practices. The case-study used is the Netherlands, which is one of the countries most exposed to flooding globally, and which is currently undergoing a debate on strategies for the compensation of potential losses. Our results show that flood exposure has increased rapidly between 1960 and 2012, and that the growth of the building stock and its economic value in flood prone areas has been higher than in not flood prone areas. We also find that property values in flood prone areas are lower than those in not flood prone areas. We argue that the increase in the share of economic value located in potential flood prone areas can have a negative effect on the feasibility of private insurance schemes in the Netherlands. The methodologies and results presented in this study are relevant for many regions around the world where the effects of rising flood exposure create a challenge for risk financing.

Analysis of pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies before the global M = 7.0+ earthquakes in 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Y. B.; Chen, P.; Zhang, S.; Chen, J. J.; Yan, F.; Peng, W. F.

2012-03-01

The pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies that occurred before the global M = 7.0+ earthquakes in 2010 are investigated using the total electron content (TEC) from the global ionosphere map (GIM). We analyze the possible causes of the ionospheric anomalies based on the space environment and magnetic field status. Results show that some anomalies are related to the earthquakes. By analyzing the time of occurrence, duration, and spatial distribution of these ionospheric anomalies, a number of new conclusions are drawn, as follows: earthquake-related ionospheric anomalies are not bound to appear; both positive and negative anomalies are likely to occur; and the earthquake-related ionospheric anomalies discussed in the current study occurred 0-2 days before the associated earthquakes and in the afternoon to sunset (i.e. between 12:00 and 20:00 local time). Pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies occur mainly in areas near the epicenter. However, the maximum affected area in the ionosphere does not coincide with the vertical projection of the epicenter of the subsequent earthquake. The directions deviating from the epicenters do not follow a fixed rule. The corresponding ionospheric effects can also be observed in the magnetically conjugated region. However, the probability of the anomalies appearance and extent of the anomalies in the magnetically conjugated region are smaller than the anomalies near the epicenter. Deep-focus earthquakes may also exhibit very significant pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies.

Testing an earthquake prediction algorithm

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kossobokov, V.G.; Healy, J.H.; Dewey, J.W.

1997-01-01

A test to evaluate earthquake prediction algorithms is being applied to a Russian algorithm known as M8. The M8 algorithm makes intermediate term predictions for earthquakes to occur in a large circle, based on integral counts of transient seismicity in the circle. In a retroactive prediction for the period January 1, 1985 to July 1, 1991 the algorithm as configured for the forward test would have predicted eight of ten strong earthquakes in the test area. A null hypothesis, based on random assignment of predictions, predicts eight earthquakes in 2.87% of the trials. The forward test began July 1, 1991 and will run through December 31, 1997. As of July 1, 1995, the algorithm had forward predicted five out of nine earthquakes in the test area, which success ratio would have been achieved in 53% of random trials with the null hypothesis.

Far-field triggering of foreshocks near the nucleation zone of the 5 September 2012 (MW 7.6) Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rica earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walter, Jacob I.; Meng, Xiaofeng; Peng, Zhigang; Schwartz, Susan Y.; Newman, Andrew V.; Protti, Marino

2015-12-01

On 5 September 2012, a moment magnitude (MW) 7.6 earthquake occurred directly beneath the Nicoya Peninsula, an area with dense seismic and geodetic network coverage. The mainshock ruptured a portion of a previously identified locked patch that was recognized due to a decade-long effort to delineate the megathrust seismic and aseismic processes in this area. Here we conduct a comprehensive study of the seismicity prior to this event utilizing a matched-filter analysis that allows us to decrease the magnitude of catalog completeness by 1 unit. We observe a statistically significant increase in seismicity rate below the Nicoya Peninsula following the 27 August 2012 (MW 7.3) El Salvador earthquake (about 450 km to the northwest and 9 days prior to the Nicoya earthquake). Additionally, we identify a cluster of small-magnitude (<2.2) earthquakes preceding the mainshock by about 35 min and within 15 km of its hypocenter. The immediate foreshock sequence occurred in the same area as those earthquakes triggered shortly after the El Salvador event; though it is not clear whether the effect of triggering from the El Salvador event persisted until the foreshock sequence given the uncertainties in seismicity rates from a relatively small number of earthquakes. If megathrust earthquakes at such distances can induce significant increases in seismicity during the days before another larger event, this sequence strengthens the need for real-time seismicity monitoring for large earthquake forecasting.

Mitigation of landslide area around railway tunnel, South Sumatra Province, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toha, M. Taufik; Setiabudidaya, Dedi; Komar, Syamsul; Bochori, Ghadafi, Moamar A.; Adiwarman, Mirza; Rahim, S. E.

2017-09-01

Adequate and safe railway line infrastructures as well as facilities are required to support the rail transport system in South Sumatra. The slope stability along railway line of Lahat-Lubuk Linggau South Sumatra were studied during landslide that occured on January 23th, 2016. The landslide occurred on the mouth of railway tunnel in Gunung Gajah Village, Lahat District that causing the railway transportation system had to be stopped for a few days. A comprehensive research was conducted to analyze the causes of the landslide and to identify other landslide risky areas along the railway line Lahat-Lubuk Linggau. The research activities included surveying, sampling, laboratory testing, investigating condition of geology, geotechnics, hydrogeology/hydrology, morphology and land use. The factors that cause landslide in the past studies were found to be morphology, structural geology, physical and mechanical characteristics, hydrogeology, hydrology, external forces (train vibration, earthquake). Results back analysis of slope stability when the landslide occurred showed that the value Safety Factor (SF) = 1, angle of friction = 0°, and cohesion = 0.49 kg/cm2 (49 kPa). Based on the observation and analysis of the condition of the morphology and orientation of the structure of the rock layers, there was a location prone to landslide (labile) in the surrounding area of the landslide. Mitigations to potential landslide in adjacent area were building a retaining wall, draining channels, and shortcrete at the rock wall after landslides and maintaining the land use around the slopes.

Short Term Patterns of Landslides Causing Death in Latin America and the Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sepulveda, S. A.; Petley, D. N.

2015-12-01

Among natural hazards, landslides represent a significant source of loss of life in mountainous terrains. Many regions of Latin America and the Caribbean are prone to landslide activity, due to strong topographic relief, high tectonic uplift rates, seismicity and/or climate. Further, vulnerable populations are often concentrated in deep valleys or mountain foothills susceptible to catastrophic landslides, with vulnerability further increased by dense urbanization and precarious settlements in some large cities. While historic extremely catastrophic events such as the 1999 Vargas flows in Venezuela or the 1970 Huascaran rock avalanche in Peru are commonly cited to characterize landslide hazards in this region, less known is the landslide activity in periods without such large disasters. This study assesses the occurrence of fatal landslides in Latin America and the Caribbean between 2004 and 2013. Over this time period we recorded 611 landslides that caused 11,631 deaths in 25 countries, mostly as a result of rainfall triggers. The countries with the highest number of fatal landslides are Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Guatemala, Peru and Haiti. The highest death toll for a single event was ca.3000. The dataset has not captured a strong El Niño event or large earthquakes in landslide prone areas, thus the analysis is indicative of short term rather than long term spatial and temporal patterns. Results show that at continental scale, the spatial distribution of landslides in the 2004-2013 period correlates well with relief, precipitation and population density, while the temporal distribution reflects the regional annual rainfall patterns. In urban areas, the presence of informal settlements has a big impact on the number of fatalities, while at national level weaker correlations with gross income, human development and corruption indices can be found. This work was funded by the Durham International Fellowships for Research and Enterprise and Fondecyt project 1140317.

Solar modulation of earthquake occurrence in areas penetrated by L of 2.0 populated by anomalous cosmic rays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khachikyan, Galina; Inchin, Alexander; Toyshiev, Nursultan

An analysis of data of global seismological catalog NEIC (National Earthquake Information Center of the U.S. Geological Survey) for 1973-2011 (182933 events with magnitude equal to 4.5 and more) has been carried out with taken into account the geometry of the main geomagnetic field as gives the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF-11) model. It is found that the greatest number of earthquakes occurs in seismic areas penetrated by the geomagnetic force lines L=1.0-1.1, and additionally, the L-shell distribution of earthquake counting rate is peaked at the L equal to 2.0-2.2, which are inhabited by the Anomalous Cosmic Rays (ACRs). It is revealed that occurrence of strong earthquakes (with magnitude 7.0 and more) in these areas is modulated by the 11 year solar cycle. Namely, during 1973-2011, twenty strong earthquakes occurred in regions where the L=2.0-2.2 are loaned into the earth’s crust and, surprisingly, all of these earthquakes occurred only at the declining phase of the 11 year solar cycles while were absent at the ascending phase. Solar modulation of earthquake occurrence may be explained at present in the frame of a modern idea that earthquake is triggered by the electric currents flowing into the global electric circuit (GEC), where the charged geomagnetic force lines play the role of conductors (field align currents). The operation of GEC depends on intensity of cosmic rays which provide ionization and conductivity of the air in the middle atmosphere. Since the ACRs are especially sensitive to solar modulation, and since they populate the L of 2.0, it may be expected that earthquake occurrence in the areas penetrated by L of 2.0 would be especially sensitive to solar modulation. Our results prove this expectation, but much work is required to study this problem in more details.

Urban MEMS based seismic network for post-earthquakes rapid disaster assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Alessandro, A.; Luzio, D.; D'Anna, G.

2014-09-01

In this paper, we introduce a project for the realization of the first European real-time urban seismic network based on Micro Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS) technology. MEMS accelerometers are a highly enabling technology, and nowadays, the sensitivity and the dynamic range of these sensors are such as to allow the recording of earthquakes of moderate magnitude even at a distance of several tens of kilometers. Moreover, thanks to their low cost and smaller size, MEMS accelerometers can be easily installed in urban areas in order to achieve an urban seismic network constituted by high density of observation points. The network is being implemented in the Acireale Municipality (Sicily, Italy), an area among those with the highest hazard, vulnerability and exposure to the earthquake of the Italian territory. The main objective of the implemented urban network will be to achieve an effective system for post-earthquake rapid disaster assessment. The earthquake recorded, also that with moderate magnitude will be used for the effective seismic microzonation of the area covered by the network. The implemented system will be also used to realize a site-specific earthquakes early warning system.

The 2007 Mentawai earthquake sequence on the Sumatra megathrust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konca, A.; Avouac, J.; Sladen, A.; Meltzner, A. J.; Kositsky, A. P.; Sieh, K.; Fang, P.; Li, Z.; Galetzka, J.; Genrich, J.; Chlieh, M.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Bock, Y.; Fielding, E. J.; Helmberger, D. V.

2008-12-01

The Sumatra Megathrust has recently produced a flurry of large interplate earthquakes starting with the giant Mw 9.15, Aceh earthquake of 2004. All of these earthquakes occurred within the area monitored by the Sumatra Geodetic Array (SuGAr), which provided exceptional records of near-field co-seismic and postseismic ground displacements. The most recent of these major earthquakes, an Mw 8.4 earthquake and an Mw 7.9 earthquake twelve hours later, occurred in the Mentawai islands area where devastating historical earthquakes had happened in 1797 and 1833. The 2007 earthquake sequence provides an exceptional opportunity to understand the variability of the earthquakes along megathrusts and their relation to interseismic coupling. The InSAR, GPS and teleseismic modeling shows that 2007 earthquakes ruptured a fraction of the strongly coupled Mentawai patch of the megathrust, which is also only a fraction of the 1833 rupture area. It also released a much smaller moment than the one released in 1833, or than the deficit of moment that has accumulated since. Both earthquakes of 2007 consist of 2 sub-events which are 50 to 100 km apart from each other. On the other hand, the northernmost slip patch of 8.4 and southern slip patch of 7.9 earthquakes abut each other, but they ruptured 12 hours apart. Sunda megathrust earthquakes of recent years include a rupture of a strongly coupled patch that closely mimics a prior rupture of that patch and which is well correlated with the interseismic coupling pattern (Nias-Simeulue section), as well as a rupture sequence of a strongly coupled patch that differs substantially in the details from its most recent predecessors (Mentawai section). We conclude that (1) seismic asperities are probably persistent features which arise form heterogeneous strain build up in the interseismic period; and (2) the same portion of a megathrust can rupture in different ways depending on whether asperities break as isolated events or cooperate to produce a larger rupture. The stress distribution on the portion of the Sunda megathrust that had ruptured in 1833 and 1797 was probably not adequate for the development of a single major earthquake of the coupled zone in 2007. Since the moment released in 2007 amounts to only a fraction of the deficit of moment that had accumulated as a result of interseismic strain since 1833, the potential for a large megathrust event in the Mentawai area remains large.

Fault- and Area-Based PSHA in Nepal using OpenQuake: New Insights from the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha-Nepal Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Victoria

2017-04-01

The 2015 Gorkha-Nepal M7.8 earthquake (hereafter known simply as the Gorkha earthquake) highlights the seismic risk in Nepal, allows better characterization of the geometry of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), and enables comparison of recorded ground-motions with predicted ground-motions. These new data, together with recent paleoseismic studies and geodetic-based coupling models, allow for good parameterization of the fault characteristics. Other faults in Nepal remain less well studied. Unlike previous PSHA studies in Nepal that are exclusively area-based, we use a mix of faults and areas to describe six seismic sources in Nepal. For each source, the Gutenberg-Richter a and b values are found, and the maximum magnitude earthquake estimated, using a combination of earthquake catalogs, moment conservation principals and similarities to other tectonic regions. The MHT and Karakoram fault are described as fault sources, whereas four other sources - normal faulting in N-S trending grabens of northern Nepal, strike-slip faulting in both eastern and western Nepal, and background seismicity - are described as area sources. We use OpenQuake (http://openquake.org/) to carry out the analysis, and peak ground acceleration (PGA) at 2 and 10% chance in 50 years is found for Nepal, along with hazard curves at various locations. We compare this PSHA model with previous area-based models of Nepal. The Main Himalayan Thrust is the principal seismic hazard in Nepal so we study the effects of changing several parameters associated with this fault. We compare ground shaking predicted from various fault geometries suggested from the Gorkha earthquake with each other, and with a simple model of a flat fault. We also show the results from incorporating a coupling model based on geodetic data and microseismicity, which limits the down-dip extent of rupture. There have been no ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) developed specifically for Nepal, so we compare the results of standard GMPEs used together with an earthquake-scenario representing that of the Gorkha earthquake, with actual data from the Gorkha earthquake itself. The Gorkha earthquake also highlighted the importance of basin-, topographic- and directivity-effects, and the location of high-frequency sources, on influencing ground motion. Future study aims at incorporating the above, together with consideration of the fault-rupture history and its influence on the location and timing of future earthquakes.

Model validation and error estimation of tsunami runup using high resolution data in Sadeng Port, Gunungkidul, Yogyakarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basith, Abdul; Prakoso, Yudhono; Kongko, Widjo

2017-07-01

A tsunami model using high resolution geometric data is indispensable in efforts to tsunami mitigation, especially in tsunami prone areas. It is one of the factors that affect the accuracy results of numerical modeling of tsunami. Sadeng Port is a new infrastructure in the Southern Coast of Java which could potentially hit by massive tsunami from seismic gap. This paper discusses validation and error estimation of tsunami model created using high resolution geometric data in Sadeng Port. Tsunami model validation uses the height wave of Tsunami Pangandaran 2006 recorded by Tide Gauge of Sadeng. Tsunami model will be used to accommodate the tsunami numerical modeling involves the parameters of earthquake-tsunami which is derived from the seismic gap. The validation results using t-test (student) shows that the height of the tsunami modeling results and observation in Tide Gauge of Sadeng are considered statistically equal at 95% confidence level and the value of the RMSE and NRMSE are 0.428 m and 22.12%, while the differences of tsunami wave travel time is 12 minutes.

Analyzing crack development pattern of masonry structure in seismic oscillation by digital photography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Guojian; Yu, Chengxin; Ding, Xinhua

2018-01-01

In this study, digital photography is used to monitor the instantaneous deformation of a masonry wall in seismic oscillation. In order to obtain higher measurement accuracy, the image matching-time baseline parallax method (IM-TBPM) is used to correct errors caused by the change of intrinsic and extrinsic parameters of digital cameras. Results show that the average errors of control point C5 are 0.79mm, 0.44mm and 0.96mm in X, Z and comprehensive direction, respectively. The average errors of control point C6 are 0.49mm, 0.44mm and 0.71mm in X, Z and comprehensive direction, respectively. These suggest that IM-TBPM can meet the accuracy requirements of instantaneous deformation monitoring. In seismic oscillation the middle to lower of the masonry wall develops cracks firstly. Then the shear failure occurs on the middle of masonry wall. This study provides technical basis for analyzing the crack development pattern of masonry structure in seismic oscillation and have significant implications for improved construction of masonry structures in earthquake prone areas.

Interseismic, postseismic and co-seismic strain on the Sumatra megathrust and their relation to the megathrust frictional properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konca, A. O.; Avouac, J. P.; Sladen, A.; Meltzner, A. J.; Kositsky, A.; Sieh, K.; Galetzka, J.; Genrich, J.; Natawidjaja, D. H.

2009-04-01

The Sumatra Megathrust has recently produced a flurry of large interplate earthquakes starting with the giant Mw 9.15, Aceh earthquake of 2004. All of these earthquakes occurred within the area monitored by the Sumatra Geodetic Array (SuGAr), which provided exceptional records of near-field co-seismic and postseismic ground displacements. In addition, based on coral growth pattern, it has also been possible to estimate the pattern of interseismic strain in this area over the last few decades preceding 2004. This earthquake sequence provides an exceptional opportunity to understand the eventual relationship between large megathrust ruptures, interseismic coupling and the frictional properties of the megathrust. The emerging view is a megathrust with strong down-dip and lateral variations of frictional properties. The 2005, Mw 8.6 Nias earthquake ruptured nearly entirely a patch that had ruptured already during a similar earthquake in 1861 and that had remained well locked in the interseismic period allowing for stress to build up to an amount comparable to, or even larger than the stress released in 1861 or 2005. This patch is inferred to obey dominantly velocity-weakening friction and the pattern or interseismic coupling and afterslip suggests that it is surrounded by areas with velocity-strengthening friction. The 2007 Mw 8.4 and 7.9 earthquakes ruptured a fraction of a strongly coupled in the Mentawai area. They each consist of 2 sub-events which are 50 to 100 km apart from each other. On the other hand, the northernmost slip patch of 8.4 and southern slip patch of 7.9 earthquakes abut each other, but they ruptured 12 hours apart. They released a moment much smaller than the giant earthquakes known to have occurred in the Mentawai area in 1833 or in 1797. Also the moment released in 2007 amounts to only a fraction of the deficit of moment that had accumulated as a result of interseismic strain since these historical events, the potential for a large megathrust event in the Mentawai area remains large. We conclude that (1) seismic asperities are probably persistent features which arise form heterogeneous strain build up in the interseismic period; and (2) the same portion of a megathrust can rupture in different ways depending on whether asperities break as isolated events or cooperate to produce a larger rupture. The spatial distribution of frictional properties of the megathrust in the Mentawai area could be the cause for a more complex earthquakes sequence than what is observed along the Simelue-Nias segment.

Interseismic, postseismic and co-seismic strain on the Sumatra megathrust and their relation to the megathrust frictional properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konca, A. O.; Avouac, J.-P.; Sladen, A.; Meltzner, A. J.; Kositsky, A.; Sieh, K.; Galetzka, J.; Genrich, J.; Natawidjaja, D. H.

2009-04-01

The Sumatra Megathrust has recently produced a flurry of large interplate earthquakes starting with the giant Mw 9.15, Aceh earthquake of 2004. All of these earthquakes occurred within the area monitored by the Sumatra Geodetic Array (SuGAr), which provided exceptional records of near-field co-seismic and postseismic ground displacements. In addition, based on coral growth pattern, it has also been possible to estimate the pattern of interseismic strain in this area over the last few decades preceding 2004. This earthquake sequence provides an exceptional opportunity to understand the eventual relationship between large megathrust ruptures, interseismic coupling and the frictional properties of the megathrust. The emerging view is a megathrust with strong down-dip and lateral variations of frictional properties. The 2005, Mw 8.6 Nias earthquake ruptured nearly entirely a patch that had ruptured already during a similar earthquake in 1861 and that had remained well locked in the interseismic period allowing for stress to build up to an amount comparable to, or even larger than the stress released in 1861 or 2005. This patch is inferred to obey dominantly velocity-weakening friction and the pattern or interseismic coupling and afterslip suggests that it is surrounded by areas with velocity-strengthening friction. The 2007 Mw 8.4 and 7.9 earthquakes ruptured a fraction of a strongly coupled in the Mentawai area. They each consist of 2 sub-events which are 50 to 100 km apart from each other. On the other hand, the northernmost slip patch of 8.4 and southern slip patch of 7.9 earthquakes abut each other, but they ruptured 12 hours apart. They released a moment much smaller than the giant earthquakes known to have occurred in the Mentawai area in 1833 or in 1797. Also the moment released in 2007 amounts to only a fraction of the deficit of moment that had accumulated as a result of interseismic strain since these historical events, the potential for a large megathrust event in the Mentawai area remains large. We conclude that (1) seismic asperities are probably persistent features which arise form heterogeneous strain build up in the interseismic period; and (2) the same portion of a megathrust can rupture in different ways depending on whether asperities break as isolated events or cooperate to produce a larger rupture. The spatial distribution of frictional properties and prestress on the megathrust in the Mentawai area could be the cause for a more complex earthquakes sequence than what is observed along the Simeulue-Nias segment.

The feature of the focal mechanism solutions and tectonic stress field around the focus of Zaduo earthquake (Ms 6.3) in eastern Tibet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Zeng, Z.; Shuang, X.; Li, X.

2017-12-01

On 17th October, 2016, an earthquake of Ms6.3 occurred in Zaduo County, Qinghai Province (32.9°N, 95.0°E), 159 km away from the epicenter of Yushu Ms7.3 earthquake in 2011. The earthquake is located in the eastern Tibet Plateau and the north region of Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis. Using the broadband seismic waveform data form regional networks, we determined the focal mechanism solutions (FMSs) of 83 earthquakes (M>3.5) occurred in Zaduo and its adjacent areas from 2009 to 2017. We also collected another 63 published FMSs and then inversed the current tectonic stress field in study region using the damped linear inversion method. The results show that the Zaduo earthquake is a normal oblique earthquake. The FMSs in our study region are mainly in strike-slip and normal fault patterns. The strike-slip earthquakes are mainly distributed in Yushu-Ganzi, Zaduo and Yanshiping fault zones, and the normal faulting events occurred in Nu Jiang fault zone and Nierong County and its vicinity, the south and southwest of the study areas. The tectonic stress field results indicate that the stress distribution in the north and east of the study region changes homogeneously and slowly. From west to east, the σ1 gradually changes from NNE to NE direction, and the σ3 varies from NWW to NW direction. Both the maximum (σ1) and minimum (σ3) principal stress axes in the study area are nearly horizontal, except in the Nu Jiang fault zone and its vicinity, the south of the study area, which is in a normal faulting stress regime (σ1 is vertical and σ3 is horizontal). The localized normal faulting stress field in the south area, which is almost limited in a semicircle, indicates that a high pressure and low viscosity body with low S-wave velocity and high conductivity might exists beneath the anomaly area. And there may be another semicircle abnormal area beyond the south of the study region. Waveform data for this study are provided by Data Management Centre of China National Seismic Network at Institute of Geophysics (SEISDMC, doi:10.11998/SeisDmc/SN), China Earthquake Networks Center and GS, QH, SC, XZ Seismic Networks, China Earthquake Administration. This work was supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China under Grant No.41230206.

Controls on the evolution of carbonate landscapes in Provence, France using cosmogenic nuclides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Franck; Godard, Vincent; Bellier, Olivier; Shabanian, Esmaeil; Benedetti, Lucilla; Ollivier, Vincent; Rizza, Magali; Hollender, Fabrice; Team Aster; Guillou, Valéry

2016-04-01

The Provence region located in South-Eastern France has registered significant earthquakes in the last 1000 years, some reaching intensities up to IX. It is currently undergoing a very slow tectonic deformation with little seismicity and long recurrence intervals for major earthquakes (such as the 1909 magnitude 6 Lambesc earthquake). Several West-trending ranges are an important part of the landscape, and the influence of tectonic uplift compared to denudation during the Pliocene-Quaternary is not yet fully understood in the region. The geology of South-Eastern France is dominated by a thick Mesozoic series primarily consisting of carbonate rocks. The iconic ranges of Provence resulting from the Pyrenean orogeny (late Eocene) are mostly made up of uplifted lower Cretaceous. A minor reactivation occurred during the more recent Alpine late Cenozoic tectonic phase and contributed to the rejuvenation of the relief. Carbonate rocks are prone to complete chemical dissolution and are thus highly sensitive to climatic forcings such as precipitation. Moreover, the elevation and the frequency of freezing and thawing are parameters strongly influencing the geomorphic evolution in such environments. To investigate on this matter, 42 carbonate rock samples were collected for 36Cl denudation measurements on the Petit Luberon range. Denudation rates have been determined for both bedrock samples from the crest and sediments from rivers draining the southern and northern flanks of the range, allowing insights into long-term relief evolution. We observe a strong denudation contrast between the flanks lowering at 100-200 mm/ka and the summit surface, at around 30 mm/ka. These results suggest a transient evolution and a probable narrowing of the range. In addition, we collected 23 carbonate bedrock samples from other Mesozoic ranges in Provence with a wide altitude range (from 150 up to 1800 meters high asl), for similar 36Cl analysis. Our objective in this study (CEA-Cashima) is to have a regional overview of the distribution of denudation rates in an area dominated by carbonate rocks and to evaluate the influence of altitude, climate and associated processes on erosion and eventually link it to a slow regional uplift. Thus this study will allow a better understanding of the denudation processes in a carbonate dominated area characterized by slow tectonic deformations and moderate precipitations.

Study on Earthquake Response of High Voltage Electrical Equipment Coupling System with Flexible Busbar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Chuncheng; Qu, Da; Wang, Chongyang; Lv, Chunlei; Li, Guoqiang

2017-12-01

With the rapid development of technology and society, all walks of life in China are becoming more and more dependent on power systems. When earthquake occurs, the electrical equipment of substation is prone to damage because of its own structural features, top-heavy, and brittleness of main body. At the same time, due to the complex coupling of the soft electrical connection of substation electrical equipment, the negative impact can not be estimated. In this paper, the finite element model of the coupling system of the single unit of high voltage electrical equipment with the connecting soft bus is established and the seismic response is analysed. The results showed that there is a significant difference between the simple analysis for the seismic response of electrical equipment monomer and the analytical results of electrical equipment systems, and the impact on different electrical equipment is different. It lays a foundation for the future development of seismic performance analysis of extra high voltage electrical equipment.

Seismic stability of the Duwamish River Delta, Seattle, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kayen, Robert E.; Barnhardt, Walter A.

2007-01-01

The delta front of the Duwamish River valley near Elliott Bay and Harbor Island is founded on young Holocene deposits shaped by sea-level rise, episodic volcanism, and seismicity. These river-mouth deposits are highly susceptible to seismic soil liquefaction and are potentially prone to submarine landsliding and disintegrative flow failure. A highly developed commercial-industrial corridor, extending from the City of Kent to the Elliott Bay/Harbor Island marine terminal facilities, is founded on the young Holocene deposits of the Duwamish River valley. The deposits of this Holocene delta have been shaped not only by relative sea-level rise but also by episodic volcanism and seismicity. Ground-penetrating radar (GPR), cores, in situ testing, and outcrops are being used to examine the delta stratigraphy and to infer how these deposits will respond to future volcanic eruptions and earthquakes in the region. A geotechnical investigation of these river-mouth deposits indicates high initial liquefaction susceptibility during earthquakes, and possibly the potential for unlimited-strain disintegrative flow failure of the delta front.

Knowledge, awareness, and preparedness unlinked in layperson

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oki, S.; Nakayachi, K.

2012-12-01

Risk assessment is of importance for the reduction of natural disasters. By utilizing the risk information such as producing shake maps or tsunami hazard maps, people can learn what kind of natural hazards they have to deal with. Japanese government takes it as an effective strategy in mitigating earthquake disaster to transfer the basic knowledge of the tectonic background of Japan and of the latest research results. In fact, the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion describes in their webpage that their basic concept is: to transfer the knowledge of research results such as long-term evaluation of large earthquake occurrence to the public, so that people will be aware and conscious of the existing risks, and then they take action to mitigate earthquake disaster. On the other hand, it goes without saying that there always exists a constant risk of earthquake disaster in Japan and every single person living in this earthquake prone country knows that. Moreover, residents know what will happen when a big earthquake occurs such as collapse of houses or tsunamis unlike cases for unknown infectious diseases. Thus they do not have to wait for the government's releasing latest research results of long-term evaluation and possibility of large earthquake occurrence to take action to mitigate disaster. Yet, people die from earthquakes of magnitude-7 class almost every year in Japan, and the causes of death are very common ones such as collapse of houses, falloff of furniture, fire or tsunamis. This fact tells us that the knowledge itself will not give serious awareness of earthquake risks or not motivate people to take action for disaster prevention. We have to have another look at the personnel risk management of earthquake disaster, for the concept of 3-steps; giving knowledge, giving awareness, and taking action would not work as expected. To examine this, we conducted experiments to see if knowledge of earthquake science helps people to be aware the risks or to take action for disaster prevention. Examinees are 200 high school and undergraduate students who do not major in Earth science. We first gave them information of basic knowledge such as tectonic backgrounds of Japan and the latest research outcomes such as long-term evaluation of large earthquake occurrence or the strong ground motion, and then asked what they felt. The results show that neither the basic knowledge nor the latest research outcomes motivate examinees to take action for the disaster prevention or even to give awareness. We then showed them the movies of the past earthquake disasters and some episodes who had lost their loved ones from the recent earthquakes, and asked the same question. As psychology implies, this information made examinees feel dread and they became aware of the risks lie ahead. But still, they did not mention what to do to prevent the tragedy. In the presentation, we would like to show the difficulty to make people take action to protect their lives from earthquake disasters. We also show peoples' preparedness/unpreparedness with the information released by a Japanese research group in the late January saying the possibility of metropolitan Tokyo earthquake being 70% in this coming 4-year.

Statiscal analysis of an earthquake-induced landslide distribution - The 1989 Loma Prieta, California event

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keefer, D.K.

2000-01-01

The 1989 Loma Prieta, California earthquake (moment magnitude, M=6.9) generated landslides throughout an area of about 15,000 km2 in central California. Most of these landslides occurred in an area of about 2000 km2 in the mountainous terrain around the epicenter, where they were mapped during field investigations immediately following the earthquake. The distribution of these landslides is investigated statistically, using regression and one-way analysisof variance (ANOVA) techniques to determine how the occurrence of landslides correlates with distance from the earthquake source, slope steepness, and rock type. The landslide concentration (defined as the number of landslide sources per unit area) has a strong inverse correlation with distance from the earthquake source and a strong positive correlation with slope steepness. The landslide concentration differs substantially among the various geologic units in the area. The differences correlate to some degree with differences in lithology and degree of induration, but this correlation is less clear, suggesting a more complex relationship between landslide occurrence and rock properties. ?? 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Expectable Earthquakes and their ground motions in the Van Norman Reservoirs Area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wesson, R.L.; Page, R.A.; Boore, D.M.; Yerkes, R.F.

1974-01-01

The upper and lower Van Norman dams, in northwesternmost San Fernando Valley about 20 mi (32 km) northwest of downtown Los Angeles, were severely damaged during the 1971 San Fernando earthquake. An investigation of the geologic-seismologic setting of the Van Norman area indicates that an earthquake of at least M 7.7 may be expected in the Van Norman area. The expectable transitory effects in the Van Norman area of such an earthquake are as follows: peak horizontal acceleration of at least 1.15 g, peak velocity of displacement of 4.43 ft/sec (135 cm/sec), peak displacement of 2.3 ft (70 cm), and duration of shaking at accelerations greater than 0.05 g, 40 sec. A great earthquake (M 8+) on the San Andreas fault, 25 mi distant, also is expectable. Transitory effects in the Van Norman area from such an earthquake are estimated as follows: peak horizontal acceleration of 0.5 g, peak velocity of 1.97 ft/sec (60 cm/sec), displacement of 1.31 ft (40 cm), and duration of shaking at accelerations greater than 0.05 g, 80 sec. The permanent effects of the expectable local earthquake could include simultaneous fault movement at the lower damsite, the upper damsite, and the site proposed for a replacement dam halfway between the upper and lower dams. The maximum differential displacements due to such movements are estimated at 16.4 ft (5 m) at the lower damsite and about 9.6 ft (2.93 m) at the upper and proposed damsites. The 1971 San Fernando earthquake (M 6?) was accompanied by the most intense ground motions ever recorded instrumentally for a natural earthquake. At the lower Van Norman dam, horizontal accelerations exceeded 0.6 g, and shaking greater than 0.25 g lasted for about 13 see; at Pacoima dam, 6 mi (10 km) northeast of the lower dam, high-frequency peak horizontal accelerations of 1.25 g were recorded in two directions, and shaking greater than 0.25 g lasted for about 7 sec. Permanent effects of the earthquake include slope failures in the embankments of the upper and lower Van Norman dams, rupturing of the ground surface by faulting along parts of the zone of old faults that extends easterly through the reservoir area and across the northern part of the valley, folding or arching of the ground surface, and differential horizontal displacement of the terrane north and south of the fault zone. Although a zone of old faults extends through the reservoir area, the 1971 surface ruptures apparently did not; however, arching and horizontal displacements caused small relative displacements of the abutment areas of each of the three damsites. The 1971 arching coincided with preexisting topographic highs, and the surface ruptures coincided with eroded fault scarps and a buried ground-water impediment formed by pre-1971 faulting in young valley fill. This coincidence with evidence of past deformation indicates that the 1971 deformations were the result of a continuing geologic process that is expected to produce similar deformations during future events. The 1971 San Fernando earthquake probably was not the largest that has occurred in this area during the last approximately 200 years, as indicated by a buried fault like scarp about 200 years old that is higher than, and aligned with, 1971 fault scarps. In addition, the San Fernando zone of 1971 ruptures is part of a regional tectonic system that includes the San Andreas and associated faults; one of these, the White Wolf fault north of the San Andreas, is symmetrical in structural attitude with the San Fernando zone and ruptured the ground surface during the 1952 Kern County earthquake (M 7.7). Other large earthquakes associated with surface rupturing on faults of this system include the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake (M 8+) and possibly the 1852 Big Pine earthquake. Several other historic earthquakes in this general area are not known to be associated with surface ruptures, but were large enough to cause damage in the northern San Fernando Valley. The Van Norman rese

Jumping to conclusions and the continuum of delusional beliefs.

PubMed

Warman, Debbie M; Lysaker, Paul H; Martin, Joel M; Davis, Louanne; Haudenschield, Samantha L

2007-06-01

The present study examined the jumping to conclusions reasoning bias across the continuum of delusional ideation by investigating individuals with active delusions, delusion prone individuals, and non-delusion prone individuals. Neutral and highly self-referent probabilistic reasoning tasks were employed. Results indicated that individuals with delusions gathered significantly less information than delusion prone and non-delusion prone participants on both the neutral and self-referent tasks, (p<.001). Individuals with delusions made less accurate decisions than the delusion prone and non-delusion prone participants on both tasks (p<.001), yet were more confident about their decisions than were delusion prone and non-delusion prone participants on the self-referent task (p=.002). Those with delusions and those who were delusion prone reported higher confidence in their performance on the self-referent task than they did the neutral task (p=.02), indicating that high self-reference impacted information processing for individuals in both of these groups. The results are discussed in relation to previous research in the area of probabilistic reasoning and delusions.

A strain behavior before and after the 2009 Suruga-Bay earthquake (M6.5) in Tokai, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takanami, T.; Hirata, N.; Kitagawa, G.; Kamigaichi, O.; Linde, A. T.; Sacks, S. I.

2012-12-01

On 11 August 2009 the intraslab earthquake (M6.5) struck the Tokai area. The largest intensity observed was VI-in JMA scale, and it was a felt earthquake in a wide area including the Kanto and Koshin'estu Regions. Tsunamis were observed at and around the Suruga Bay. In the Tokai area, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) continuously monitors strain data by the real time automated processing in the Tokai network. According to JMA, it is unconnected to the anticipated Tokai Earthquake (M8) judging from the acceptable reasons. For instance, it is an intraslab earthquake in the Philippine Sea plate, while the anticipated earthquake is a plate boundary earthquake on the upper side of the Philippine Sea plate. We consider it as an appropriate earthquake for validation of the Tokai network, though the feature of earthquake is different from one of the anticipated earthquake. We here tried to investigate the strain behavior before and after the 2009 Suruga Bay earthquake occurred in the fault zone of the anticipated Tokai earthquake. In actual, the Tokai network of strainmeters has been monitoring the short-term slow slip events (SSE) synchronized with nearby low frequency earthquakes or tremors since 2005 (Kobayashi et al., 2006). However, the earth's surface is always under the continuous influence of a variety of natural forces such as earthquakes, wave, wind, tide, air pressure, precipitation and a variety of human induced sources, which create noise when monitoring geodetic strain. Eliminating these noise inputs from the raw strain data requires proper statistical modeling, for automatic processing of geodetic strain data. It is desirable to apply the state space method to noisy Tokai strain data in order to detect precursors of the anticipated Tokai earthquake. The method is based on the general state space method, recursive filtering and smoothing algorithms (Kitagawa and Matsumoto, 1996). The first attempt to apply this method to actual strain data was made using data from the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake (M8.0) recorded by the Sacks-Evertson strainmeter, which has been operating since 1982 at Urakawa Seismological Observatory (KMU) of Hokkaido University in the southern part of the Hidaka Mountains (Takanami et al., 2009). KMU is far 105 km NW of the epicenter of the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake. After the earthquake, the data showed a clear episode of contraction for 4 days followed by expansion for 23 days. These signals correlate with increased aftershock seismicity for M≧4 events. The strain changes, together with surface displacements detected by the GPS network, are indicative of propagation of slow slip at depth (e.g. Geographical Survey Institute, 2004). We here review the computational approach to state space method and the results of its application to the strain data from the 2009 earthquakes (M6.5) occurred off Sagami in the Tokai area. Interestingly, for the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake off the Pacific coast no pre-slip was detected by land-based observations even though its magnitude was M9. In order to detect the nucleation of such an earthquake occurring far offshore, high-precision strain data is necessary but was not available.

Overview of the recommended procedures dealing with the evaluation of liquefaction-induced deformation allong a pipeline corridor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papathanassiou, George

2016-04-01

The last decade several pipeline corridors have been designed in order to transmit to Europe natural gas and oil from Asia. Although the fact that a pipeline is considered as an underground structure, an analysis of earthquake-induced structural failures should be conducted in prone to earthquake countries e.g. Greece, Italy in EU. The aim of these specific analyses is to assess and evaluate the hazard and the relevant risk induced by earthquake-induced slope failures and soil liquefaction. The latter is a phenomenon that is triggered under specific site conditions. In particular the basic ingredients for the occurrence of liquefaction is the surficial water table, the existence of non-plastic or low plasticity soil layer and the generation of strong ground motion. Regarding the liquefaction-induced deformation that should be assessed and evaluated in order to minimize the risk, it is concluded that the pervasive types of ground failures for level to gently sloping sites are the ground settlements and lateral spreads. The goal of this study is to overview the most widely approaches used for the computation of liquefaction-induced settlement and to present a more detailed description, step by step, of the methodology that is recommended to follow for the evaluation of lateral spreading.

Coseismic slip of two large Mexican earthquakes from teleseismic body waveforms - Implications for asperity interaction in the Michoacan plate boundary segment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, Carlos

1993-05-01

The distributions and depths of coseismic slip are derived for the October 25, 1981 Playa Azul and September 21, 1985 Zihuatanejo earthquakes in western Mexico by inverting the recorded teleseismic body waves. Rupture during the Playa Azul earthquake appears to have occurred in two separate zones both updip and downdip of the point of initial nucleation, with most of the slip concentrated in a circular region of 15-km radius downdip from the hypocenter. Coseismic slip occurred entirely within the area of reduced slip between the two primary shallow sources of the Michoacan earthquake that occurred on September 19, 1985, almost 4 years later. The slip of the Zihuatanejo earthquake was concentrated in an area adjacent to one of the main sources of the Michoacan earthquake and appears to be the southeastern continuation of rupture along the Cocos-North America plate boundary. The zones of maximum slip for the Playa Azul, Zihuatanejo, and Michoacan earthquakes may be considered asperity regions that control the occurrence of large earthquakes along the Michoacan segment of the plate boundary.

Vulnerability of populations and man-made facilities to seismic hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badal, J.; Vazquez-Prada, M.; Gonzalez, A.; Chourak, M.; Samardzhieva, E.; Zhang, Z.

2003-04-01

Earthquakes become major societal risks when they impinge on vulnerable populations. According to the available worldwide data during the twentieth century (NEIC Catalog of Earthquakes 1980-1999), almost half a thousand of earthquakes resulted in more than 1,615,000 human victims. Besides human casualty levels, destructive earthquakes frequently inflict huge economic losses. An additional problem of very different nature, but also worthy of being considered in a damage and loss analysis, is the direct cost associated with the damages derived from a strong seismic impact. We focus our attention on both aspects to their rapid quantitative assessment, and to lessen the earthquake disaster in areas affected by relatively strong earthquakes. Our final goal is the knowledge of potential losses from earthquakes to forward national programs in emergency management, and consequently the minimization of the life loss due to earthquakes, and to aid in response and recovery tasks. For this purpose we follow a suitable and comprehensible methodology for risk-based loss analysis, and simulate the occurence of a seismic event in densely populated areas of Spain.

Surface Rupture Effects on Earthquake Moment-Area Scaling Relations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Yingdi; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Miyakoshi, Ken; Irikura, Kojiro

2017-09-01

Empirical earthquake scaling relations play a central role in fundamental studies of earthquake physics and in current practice of earthquake hazard assessment, and are being refined by advances in earthquake source analysis. A scaling relation between seismic moment ( M 0) and rupture area ( A) currently in use for ground motion prediction in Japan features a transition regime of the form M 0- A 2, between the well-recognized small (self-similar) and very large (W-model) earthquake regimes, which has counter-intuitive attributes and uncertain theoretical underpinnings. Here, we investigate the mechanical origin of this transition regime via earthquake cycle simulations, analytical dislocation models and numerical crack models on strike-slip faults. We find that, even if stress drop is assumed constant, the properties of the transition regime are controlled by surface rupture effects, comprising an effective rupture elongation along-dip due to a mirror effect and systematic changes of the shape factor relating slip to stress drop. Based on this physical insight, we propose a simplified formula to account for these effects in M 0- A scaling relations for strike-slip earthquakes.

Are you prepared for the next big earthquake in Alaska?

USGS Publications Warehouse

2006-01-01

Scientists have long recognized that Alaska has more earthquakes than any other region of the United States and is, in fact, one of the most seismically active areas of the world. The second-largest earthquake ever recorded shook the heart of southern Alaska on March 27th, 1964. The largest strike-slip slip earthquake in North America in almost 150 years occurred on the Denali Fault in central Alaska on November 3rd, 2002. “Great” earthquakes (larger than magnitude 8) have rocked the state on an average of once every 13 years since 1900. It is only a matter of time before another major earthquake will impact a large number of Alaskans.Alaska has changed significantly since the damaging 1964 earthquake, and the population has more than doubled. Many new buildings are designed to withstand intense shaking, some older buildings have been reinforced, and development has been discouraged in some particularly hazardous areas. Despite these precautions, future earthquakes may still cause damage to buildings, displace items within buildings, and disrupt the basic utilities that we take for granted. We must take every reasonable action to prepare for damaging earthquakes in order to lower these risks.

An overview of the geotechnical damage brought by the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake, Japan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hemanta Hazarika,; Takaji Kokusho,; Kayen, Robert E.; Dashti, Shideh; Yutaka Tanoue,; Shuuichi Kuroda and Kentaro Kuribayashi,; Daisuke Matsumoto,; Furuichi, Hideo

2016-01-01

The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake with a moment magnitude of 7.0 (Japanese intensity = 7) that struck on April 16 brought devastation in many areas of Kumamoto Prefecture and partly in Oita Prefecture in Kyushu Region, Japan. The earthquake succeeds a foreshock of magnitude 6.5 (Japanese intensity = 7) on April 14. The authors conducted two surveys on the devastated areas: one during April 16-17, and the other during May 11-14. This report summarizes the damage brought to geotechnical structures by the two consecutive earthquakes within a span of twenty-eight hours. This report highlights some of the observed damage and identifies reasons for such damage. The geotechnical challenges towards mitigation of losses from such earthquakes are also suggested.

Earthquakes; March-April 1975

USGS Publications Warehouse

Person, W.J.

1975-01-01

There were no major earthquakes (magnitude 7.0-7.9) in March or April; however, there were earthquake fatalities in Chile, Iran, and Venezuela and approximately 35 earthquake-related injuries were reported around the world. In the United States a magnitude 6.0 earthquake struck the Idaho-Utah border region. Damage was estimated at about a million dollars. The shock was felt over a wide area and was the largest to hit the continental Untied States since the San Fernando earthquake of February 1971. 

Earthquake predictions using seismic velocity ratios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherburne, R. W.

1979-01-01

Since the beginning of modern seismology, seismologists have contemplated predicting earthquakes. The usefulness of earthquake predictions to the reduction of human and economic losses and the value of long-range earthquake prediction to planning is obvious. Not as clear are the long-range economic and social impacts of earthquake prediction to a speicifc area. The general consensus of opinion among scientists and government officials, however, is that the quest of earthquake prediction is a worthwhile goal and should be prusued with a sense of urgency. 

Seismic characteristics of Sumatra and its relevance to Peninsular Malaysia and Singapore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Jichun; Pan, Tso-Chien

In this paper we first use the great Mexico City earthquake of 1985 to demonstrate that great earthquakes not only cause devastating losses locally, but can also be dangerous to buildings on soft soils several hundred kilometers away. The building responses to some recent earthquakes suggest that in South East Asia, similar scenarios cannot be totally ruled out. Secondly, the cause and the characteristics of teh earthquakes in the Sumatra area are reviewed. Thirdly we present the results of a preliminary investigation into the risk of very large earthquakes in Sumatra. The result indicates that the recurrence interval of an earthquake with a moment magnitude ( Mw) of 8.5 or larger is about 340 years, which is equivalent to a 14% probability of exceedance within 50 years. The results imply that the risk of a very large earthquake is high in Sumatra, and that its potential effects on the distant metropolitan areas in Peninsular Malaysia and Singapore should be investigated in further research.

Earthquake alarm; operating the seismograph station at the University of California, Berkeley.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stump, B.

1980-01-01

At the University of California seismographic stations, the task of locating and determining magnitudes for both local and distant earthquakes is a continuous one. Teleseisms must be located rapidly so that events that occur in the Pacific can be identified and the Pacific Tsunami Warning System alerted. For great earthquakes anywhere, there is a responsibility to notify public agencies such as the California Office of Emergency Services, the Federal Disaster Assistance Administration, the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, the California Seismic Safety Commission, and the American Red Cross. In the case of damaging local earthquakes, it is necessary to alert also the California Department of Water Resources, California Division of Mines and Geology, U.S Army Corps of Engineers, Federal Bureau of Reclamation, and the Bay Area Rapid Transit. These days, any earthquakes that are felt in northern California cause immediate inquiries from the news media and an interested public. The series of earthquakes that jolted the Livermore area from January 24 to 26 1980, is a good case in point. 

Construction of Source Model of Huge Subduction Earthquakes for Strong Ground Motion Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwata, T.; Asano, K.; Kubo, H.

2013-12-01

It is a quite important issue for strong ground motion prediction to construct the source model of huge subduction earthquakes. Iwata and Asano (2012, AGU) summarized the scaling relationships of large slip area of heterogeneous slip model and total SMGA sizes on seismic moment for subduction earthquakes and found the systematic change between the ratio of SMGA to the large slip area and the seismic moment. They concluded this tendency would be caused by the difference of period range of source modeling analysis. In this paper, we try to construct the methodology of construction of the source model for strong ground motion prediction for huge subduction earthquakes. Following to the concept of the characterized source model for inland crustal earthquakes (Irikura and Miyake, 2001; 2011) and intra-slab earthquakes (Iwata and Asano, 2011), we introduce the proto-type of the source model for huge subduction earthquakes and validate the source model by strong ground motion modeling.

RASOR flood modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckers, Joost; Buckman, Lora; Bachmann, Daniel; Visser, Martijn; Tollenaar, Daniel; Vatvani, Deepak; Kramer, Nienke; Goorden, Neeltje

2015-04-01

Decision making in disaster management requires fast access to reliable and relevant information. We believe that online information and services will become increasingly important in disaster management. Within the EU FP7 project RASOR (Rapid Risk Assessment and Spatialisation of Risk) an online platform is being developed for rapid multi-hazard risk analyses to support disaster management anywhere in the world. The platform will provide access to a plethora of GIS data that are relevant to risk assessment. It will also enable the user to run numerical flood models to simulate historical and newly defined flooding scenarios. The results of these models are maps of flood extent, flood depths and flow velocities. The RASOR platform will enable to overlay historical event flood maps with observations and Earth Observation (EO) imagery to fill in gaps and assess the accuracy of the flood models. New flooding scenarios can be defined by the user and simulated to investigate the potential impact of future floods. A series of flood models have been developed within RASOR for selected case study areas around the globe that are subject to very different flood hazards: • The city of Bandung in Indonesia, which is prone to fluvial flooding induced by heavy rainfall. The flood hazard is exacerbated by land subsidence. • The port of Cilacap on the south coast of Java, subject to tsunami hazard from submarine earthquakes in the Sunda trench. • The area south of city of Rotterdam in the Netherlands, prone to coastal and/or riverine flooding. • The island of Santorini in Greece, which is subject to tsunamis induced by landslides. Flood models have been developed for each of these case studies using mostly EO data, augmented by local data where necessary. Particular use was made of the new TanDEM-X (TerraSAR-X add-on for Digital Elevation Measurement) product from the German Aerospace centre (DLR) and EADS Astrium. The presentation will describe the flood models and the flooding scenarios that can be defined by the RASOR end user to support risk management in each area. Ongoing work for three more case studies (Haiti, Po valley in Italy and Jakarta, Indonesia) will also be discussed.

Predicted liquefaction in the greater Oakland area and northern Santa Clara Valley during a repeat of the 1868 Hayward Fault (M6.7-7.0) earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holzer, Thomas L.; Noce, Thomas E.; Bennett, Michael J.

2010-01-01

Probabilities of surface manifestations of liquefaction due to a repeat of the 1868 (M6.7-7.0) earthquake on the southern segment of the Hayward Fault were calculated for two areas along the margin of San Francisco Bay, California: greater Oakland and the northern Santa Clara Valley. Liquefaction is predicted to be more common in the greater Oakland area than in the northern Santa Clara Valley owing to the presence of 57 km2 of susceptible sandy artificial fill. Most of the fills were placed into San Francisco Bay during the first half of the 20th century to build military bases, port facilities, and shoreline communities like Alameda and Bay Farm Island. Probabilities of liquefaction in the area underlain by this sandy artificial fill range from 0.2 to ~0.5 for a M7.0 earthquake, and decrease to 0.1 to ~0.4 for a M6.7 earthquake. In the greater Oakland area, liquefaction probabilities generally are less than 0.05 for Holocene alluvial fan deposits, which underlie most of the remaining flat-lying urban area. In the northern Santa Clara Valley for a M7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault and an assumed water-table depth of 1.5 m (the historically shallowest water level), liquefaction probabilities range from 0.1 to 0.2 along Coyote and Guadalupe Creeks, but are less than 0.05 elsewhere. For a M6.7 earthquake, probabilities are greater than 0.1 along Coyote Creek but decrease along Guadalupe Creek to less than 0.1. Areas with high probabilities in the Santa Clara Valley are underlain by young Holocene levee deposits along major drainages where liquefaction and lateral spreading occurred during large earthquakes in 1868 and 1906.

Flood-prone area maps of three sites along the Trans-Alaska Pipeline, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lamke, Robert D.; Jones, Stanley H.

1980-01-01

Flood-prone areas in Alaska are delineated on aerial photographs for the Sagavanirktok River near Pump Station 3, Middle Fork Koyukuk River at Coldfoot, and Jim River near Pump Station 5. An analysis of available flood data and a description of recent flood evidence and maximum evident flood marks are included. (Kosco-USGS)

Earth, wind, and fire: Wildfire risk perceptions in a hurricane-prone environment

Treesearch

Soren M. Newman; Matthew S. Carroll; Pamela J. Jakes; Daniel R. Williams; Lorie L. Higgins

2014-01-01

Wildfire is one of several potential disturbances that could have extraordinary impacts on individuals and communities in fire-prone areas. In this article we describe disturbance risk perceptions from interviews with residents in three Florida communities that face significant wildfire and hurricane risk. Although they live in areas characterized by emergency managers...

LANDSAT imagery analysis: An aid for predicting landslide prone areas for highway construction. [in Arkansas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Macdonald, H. C.; Grubbs, R. S.

1975-01-01

The most obvious landform features of geologic significance revealed on LANDSAT imagery are linear trends or lineaments. These trends were found to correspond, at least to a large degree, with unmapped faults or complex fracture zones. LANDSAT imagery analysis in northern Arkansas revealed a lineament complex which provides a remarkable correlation with landslide-prone areas along major highway routes. The weathering properties of various rock types, which are considered in designing stable cut slopes and drainage structures, appear to be adversely influenced by the location and trends of LANDSAT defined lineaments. Geologic interpretation of LANDSAT imagery, where applicable and utilized effectively, provides the highway engineer with a tool for predicting and evaluating landslide-prone areas.

Investigation of an earthquake swarm near Trinidad, Colorado, August-October 2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meremonte, Mark E.; Lahr, John C.; Frankel, Arthur D.; Dewey, James W.; Crone, Anthony J.; Overturf, Dee E.; Carver, David L.; Bice., W. Thomas

2002-01-01

A swarm of 12 widely felt earthquakes occurred between August 28 and September 21, 2001, in the area west of the town of Trinidad, Colorado. The earthquakes ranged in magnitude between 2.8 and 4.6, and the largest event occurred on September 5, eight days after the initial M 3.4 event. The nearest permanent seismograph station to the swarm is about 290 km away, resulting in large uncertainties in the location and depth of these events. To better locate and characterize the earthquakes in this swarm, we deployed a total of 12 portable seismographs in the area of the swarm starting on September 6. Here we report on data from this portable network that was recorded between September 7 and October 15. During this time period, we have high-quality data from 39 earthquakes. The hypocenters of these earthquakes cluster to define a 6 km long northeast-trending fault plane that dips steeply (70-80?) to the southeast. The upper bound of well-constrained hypocenters is near 3 km depth and lower bound is near 6 km depth. Preliminary fault mechanisms suggest normal faulting with movement down to the southeast. Significant historical earthquakes have occurred in the Trinidad region in 1966 and 1973. Reexamination of felt reports from these earthquakes suggest that the 1973 events may have occurred in the same area, and possibly on the same fault, as the 2001 swarm. In recent years, a large volume of excess water that is produced in conjunction with coal-bed methane gas production has been returned to the subsurface in fluid disposal wells in the area of the earthquake swarm. Because of the proximity of these disposal wells to the earthquakes, local residents and officials are concerned that the fluid disposal might have triggered the earthquakes. We have evaluated the characteristics of the seismicity using criteria proposed by Davis and Frohlich (1993) as diagnostic of seismicity induced by fluid injection. We conclude that the characteristics of the seismicity and the fluid disposal process do not constitute strong evidence that the seismicity is induced by the fluid disposal, though they do not rule out this possibility.

APPALACHIAN FOLDS, LATERAL RAMPS, AND BASEMENT FAULTS: A MODERN ENGINEERING PROBLEM?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pohn, Howard A.

1987-01-01

Field studies and analysis of radar data have shown that cross-strike faulting in the central and southern Appalachians has affected geologic structures at the surface. These basement faults appear to have been active through much of geologic time. Indeed, more than 45 percent of modern earthquakes occur along these narrow zones here termed 'lateral ramps. ' Because of this seismic activity, these lateral ramps are likely to be zones that are prone to slope failure. The engineer should be aware of the presence of such zones and the higher landslide potential along them.

Seismicity in the block mountains between Halle and Leipzig, Central Germany: centroid moment tensors, ground motion simulation, and felt intensities of two M ≈ 3 earthquakes in 2015 and 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahm, Torsten; Heimann, Sebastian; Funke, Sigward; Wendt, Siegfried; Rappsilber, Ivo; Bindi, Dino; Plenefisch, Thomas; Cotton, Fabrice

2018-05-01

On April 29, 2017 at 0:56 UTC (2:56 local time), an M W = 2.8 earthquake struck the metropolitan area between Leipzig and Halle, Germany, near the small town of Markranstädt. The earthquake was felt within 50 km from the epicenter and reached a local intensity of I 0 = IV. Already in 2015 and only 15 km northwest of the epicenter, a M W = 3.2 earthquake struck the area with a similar large felt radius and I 0 = IV. More than 1.1 million people live in the region, and the unusual occurrence of the two earthquakes led to public attention, because the tectonic activity is unclear and induced earthquakes have occurred in neighboring regions. Historical earthquakes south of Leipzig had estimated magnitudes up to M W ≈ 5 and coincide with NW-SE striking crustal basement faults. We use different seismological methods to analyze the two recent earthquakes and discuss them in the context of the known tectonic structures and historical seismicity. Novel stochastic full waveform simulation and inversion approaches are adapted for the application to weak, local earthquakes, to analyze mechanisms and ground motions and their relation to observed intensities. We find NW-SE striking normal faulting mechanisms for both earthquakes and centroid depths of 26 and 29 km. The earthquakes are located where faults with large vertical offsets of several hundred meters and Hercynian strike have developed since the Mesozoic. We use a stochastic full waveform simulation to explain the local peak ground velocities and calibrate the method to simulate intensities. Since the area is densely populated and has sensitive infrastructure, we simulate scenarios assuming that a 12-km long fault segment between the two recent earthquakes is ruptured and study the impact of rupture parameters on ground motions and expected damage.

Seismicity and Seismic Hazard along the Western part of the Eurasia-Nubia plate boundary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bezzeghoud, Mourad; Fontiela, João; Ferrão, Celia; Borges, José Fernando; Caldeira, Bento; Dib, Assia; Ousadou, Farida

2016-04-01

The seismic phenomenon is the most damaging natural hazard known in the Mediterranean area. The western part of the Eurasia-Nubia plate boundary extends from the Azores to the Mediterranean region. The oceanic part of the plate boundary is well delimited from the Azores Islands, along the Azores-Gibraltar fault to approximately 12°W (west of the Strait of Gibraltar). From 12°W to 3.5°E, including the Iberia-Nubia region and extending to the western part of Algeria, the boundary is more diffuse and forms a wider area of deformation. The boundary between the Iberia and Nubia plates is the most complex part of the margin. This region corresponds to the transition from an oceanic boundary to a continental boundary, where Iberia and Nubia collide. Although most earthquakes along this plate boundary are shallow and generally have magnitudes less than 5.5, there have been several high-magnitude events. Many devastating earthquakes, some of them tsunami-triggering, inflicted heavy loss and considerable economic damage to the region. From 1920 to present, three earthquakes with magnitudes of about 8.0 (Mw 8.2, 25 November 1941; Ms 8.0, 25 February 1969; and Mw 7.9, 26 May 1975) occurred in the oceanic region, and four earthquakes with magnitudes of about 7.0 (Mw 7.1, 8 May 1939, Santa Maria Island and Mw 7.1, January 1980, Terceira and Graciosa Islands, both in the Azores; Ms 7.1, 20 May 1931, Azores-Gibraltar fracture zone; and Mw 7.3, 10 October 1980, El Asnam, Algeria) occurred along the western part of the Eurasia-Nubia plate boundary. In general, large earthquakes (M ≥7) occur within the oceanic region, with the exception of the El Asnam (Algeria) earthquakes. Some of these events caused extensive damage. The 1755 Lisbon earthquake (˜Mw 9) on the Portugal Atlantic margin, about 200 km W-SW of Cape St. Vincent, was followed by a tsunami and fires that caused the near-total destruction of Lisbon and adjacent areas. Estimates of the death toll in Lisbon alone (~70,000) make it one of the deadliest earthquakes in history. Measured in lives lost, the 1926, 1980 and 1998 Azores earthquakes (Portugal), the 1954 and 1980 El Asnam earthquakes (North Algeria), the 1994 and 2004 Alhoceima earthquakes (North Morocco), and the 2003 Boumerdes earthquakes (North Algeria) were the worst earthquakes in the past 120 years in the study area. Hence, this region has experienced many large and damaging earthquakes. The city of Cairo (Egypt) was struck in October 1992 by an Mw 5.8 magnitude earthquake, which caused large damage. In 1935, the Syrte region in Libya experienced an M6.9 earthquake with severe damage. Generally, North Africa has experienced moderate earthquakes. However, the region remains vulnerable due to the shallow seismicity, the poor mechanical properties of its soil and local site conditions, and the consequent strength of the ground shaking. Knowing the behaviour of a seismogenic area, particularly the fault zone, will lead us to better assess the hazard and risk in and around large urban areas. In order to mitigate the destructive impact of the earthquakes, the regional seismic hazard in North Africa is assessed using different approaches (ex. deterministic and probabilistic) using historical and instrumental seismicity, earthquake sources, seismotectonic zonation, structural models and attenuation laws. As a result, reliable seismic hazard maps are produced in terms of maximum displacement and in terms of maximum intensity map. This research is funded by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT, Portugal) under the project ICT-UID/GEO/04683/2013. This study also was conducted within the scope of the MEDYNA FP7-PEOPLE-2013-IRSES project, WP-1: Present-day Kinematics and seismic hazards, funded by the Seventh Framework European Programme.

Liquefaction-induced lateral spreading in Oceano, California, during the 2003 San Simeon Earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holzer, Thomas L.; Noce, Thomas E.; Bennett, Michael J.; Di Alessandro, Carola; Boatwright, John; Tinsley, John C.; Sell, Russell W.; Rosenberg, Lewis I.

2004-01-01

The December 22, 2003, San Simeon, California, (M6.5) earthquake caused damage to houses, road surfaces, and underground utilities in Oceano, California. The community of Oceano is approximately 50 miles (80 km) from the earthquake epicenter. Damage at this distance from a M6.5 earthquake is unusual. To understand the causes of this damage, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted extensive subsurface exploration and monitoring of aftershocks in the months after the earthquake. The investigation included 37 seismic cone penetration tests, 5 soil borings, and aftershock monitoring from January 28 to March 7, 2004. The USGS investigation identified two earthquake hazards in Oceano that explain the San Simeon earthquake damage?site amplification and liquefaction. Site amplification is a phenomenon observed in many earthquakes where the strength of the shaking increases abnormally in areas where the seismic-wave velocity of shallow geologic layers is low. As a result, earthquake shaking is felt more strongly than in surrounding areas without similar geologic conditions. Site amplification in Oceano is indicated by the physical properties of the geologic layers beneath Oceano and was confirmed by monitoring aftershocks. Liquefaction, which is also commonly observed during earthquakes, is a phenomenon where saturated sands lose their strength during an earthquake and become fluid-like and mobile. As a result, the ground may undergo large permanent displacements that can damage underground utilities and well-built surface structures. The type of displacement of major concern associated with liquefaction is lateral spreading because it involves displacement of large blocks of ground down gentle slopes or towards stream channels. The USGS investigation indicates that the shallow geologic units beneath Oceano are very susceptible to liquefaction. They include young sand dunes and clean sandy artificial fill that was used to bury and convert marshes into developable lots. Most of the 2003 damage was caused by lateral spreading in two separate areas, one near Norswing Drive and the other near Juanita Avenue. The areas coincided with areas with the highest liquefaction potential found in Oceano. Areas with site amplification conditions similar to those in Oceano are particularly vulnerable to earthquakes. Site amplification may cause shaking from distant earthquakes, which normally would not cause damage, to increase locally to damaging levels. The vulnerability in Oceano is compounded by the widespread distribution of highly liquefiable soils that will reliquefy when ground shaking is amplified as it was during the San Simeon earthquake. The experience in Oceano can be expected to repeat because the region has many active faults capable of generating large earthquakes. In addition, liquefaction and lateral spreading will be more extensive for moderate-size earthquakes that are closer to Oceano than was the 2003 San Simeon earthquake. Site amplification and liquefaction can be mitigated. Shaking is typically mitigated in California by adopting and enforcing up-to-date building codes. Although not a guarantee of safety, application of these codes ensures that the best practice is used in construction. Building codes, however, do not always require the upgrading of older structures to new code requirements. Consequently, many older structures may not be as resistant to earthquake shaking as new ones. For older structures, retrofitting is required to bring them up to code. Seismic provisions in codes also generally do not apply to nonstructural elements such as drywall, heating systems, and shelving. Frequently, nonstructural damage dominates the earthquake loss. Mitigation of potential liquefaction in Oceano presently is voluntary for existing buildings, but required by San Luis Obispo County for new construction. Multiple mitigation procedures are available to individual property owners. These procedures typically involve either

Earthquake Swarm in Armutlu Peninsula, Eastern Marmara Region, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yavuz, Evrim; Çaka, Deniz; Tunç, Berna; Serkan Irmak, T.; Woith, Heiko; Cesca, Simone; Lühr, Birger-Gottfried; Barış, Şerif

2015-04-01

The most active fault system of Turkey is North Anatolian Fault Zone and caused two large earthquakes in 1999. These two earthquakes affected the eastern Marmara region destructively. Unbroken part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone crosses north of Armutlu Peninsula on east-west direction. This branch has been also located quite close to Istanbul known as a megacity with its high population, economic and social aspects. A new cluster of microseismic activity occurred in the direct vicinity southeastern of the Yalova Termal area. Activity started on August 2, 2014 with a series of micro events, and then on August 3, 2014 a local magnitude is 4.1 event occurred, more than 1000 in the followed until August 31, 2014. Thus we call this tentatively a swarm-like activity. Therefore, investigation of the micro-earthquake activity of the Armutlu Peninsula has become important to understand the relationship between the occurrence of micro-earthquakes and the tectonic structure of the region. For these reasons, Armutlu Network (ARNET), installed end of 2005 and equipped with currently 27 active seismic stations operating by Kocaeli University Earth and Space Sciences Research Center (ESSRC) and Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ), is a very dense network tool able to record even micro-earthquakes in this region. In the 30 days period of August 02 to 31, 2014 Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) announced 120 local earthquakes ranging magnitudes between 0.7 and 4.1, but ARNET provided more than 1000 earthquakes for analyzes at the same time period. In this study, earthquakes of the swarm area and vicinity regions determined by ARNET were investigated. The focal mechanism of the August 03, 2014 22:22:42 (GMT) earthquake with local magnitude (Ml) 4.0 is obtained by the moment tensor solution. According to the solution, it discriminates a normal faulting with dextral component. The obtained focal mechanism solution is conformable with the features of local faults in the region. The spatial vicinity of the earthquake swarm and the Yalova geothermal area may suggest a physical link between the ongoing exploitation of the reservoir and the earthquake activity. Keywords: Earthquake swarm, Armutlu Peninsula, ARNET, geothermal activity

Relocation of the 2010-2013 near the north coast of Papua earthquake sequence using Modified Joint Hypocenter Determination (MJHD) method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Salomo, Dimas, E-mail: dimas.salomo@gmail.com; Daryono,; Subakti, Hendri

The accuracy of earthquake hypocenter position is necessary to analyze the tectonic conditions. This study aims to: (1) relocate the mainshock and aftershocks of the large earthquakes in Papua region i.e. June 16, 2010, April 21, 2012 and April 06, 2013 earthquake (2) determine the true fault plane, (3) estimate the area of the fracture, and (4) analyze the advantages and disadvantages of relocation with MJHD method in benefits for tectonic studies. This study used Modified Joint Hypocenter Determination (MJHD) method. Using P arrival phase data reported by the BMKG and openly available from website repogempa.bmkg.go.id, we relocated the mainshockmore » of this large significant earthquake and its aftershocks. Then we identified the prefered fault planes from the candidate fault planes provided by the global CMT catalogue. The position of earthquakes was successfully relocated. The earthquakes mostly were clustered around the mainshock. Earthquakes that not clustered around mainshock are considered to be different mechanism from the mainshock. Relocation results indicate that the mainshock fault plane of June 16, 2010 earthquake is a field with strike 332o, dip 80o and −172o slip, the mainshock fault plane of April 21, 2012 earthquake is a field with strike 82o, dip 84o and 2o slip, the mainshock fault plane of April 06, 2013 earthquake is a field with strike 339o, dip 56o and −137o slip. Fault plane area estimated by cross section graphical method is an area of 2816.0 km2 (June 16, 2010), 906.2 km2 (April 21, 2012) and 1984.3 km2 (April 06, 2013). MJHD method has the advantage that it can calculate a lot of earthquakes simultaneously and has a station correction to account for lateral heterogeneity of the earth. This method successfully provides significant changes to improve the position of the depth of earthquakes that most of the hypocenter depth manually specified as a fixed depth (± 10 km). But this method cannot be sure that the hypocenters derived from the same earthquake mechanism.« less

Business losses, transportation damage and the Northridge Earthquake

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-05-01

The 1994 Northridge earthquake damaged four major freeways in the Los Angeles area. Southern California firms were surveyed to assess the role that these transportation disruptions played in business losses. Of the firms that reported any earthquake ...

Assessing tsunami-induced groundwater salinization and its temporal change: a numerical modelling study on the Niijima Island, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiaqi; Tokunaga, Tomochika

2016-04-01

Groundwater is vulnerable to many natural hazards, including tsunami. As reported after the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake, the generated massive tsunami inundations resulted in unexpected groundwater salinization in coastal areas. Water supply was strongly disturbed due to the significantly elevated salinity in groundwater. Supplying fresh water is one of the prioritized concerns in the immediate aftermath of disaster, and during long-term post-disaster reconstruction as well. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of tsunami on coastal groundwater system and provide guidelines on managing water resources in post-tsunami period. We selected the study area as the Niijima Island, a tsunami-prone area in Japan, which is under the risk of being attacked by a devastated tsunami with its wave height up to 30 m. A three-dimension (3-D) numerical model of the groundwater system on the Niijima Island was developed by using the simulation code FEFLOW which can handle both density- dependent groundwater flow and saturated-unsaturated flow processes. The model was justified by the measured water table data obtained from the field work in July, 2015. By using this model, we investigated saltwater intrusion and aquifer recovery process under different tsunami scenarios. Modelling results showed that saltwater could fully saturate the vadose zone and come into contact with groundwater table in just 10 mins. The 0.6 km2 of inundation area introduced salt mass equivalent to approximately 9×104 t of NaCl into the vadose zone. After the retreat of tsunami waves, the remained saltwater in vadose zone continuously intruded into the groundwater and dramatically salinized the aquifer up to about 10,000 mg/L. In the worst tsunami scenario, it took more than 10 years for the polluted aquifer to be entirely recovered by natural rainfall. Given that the groundwater is the only freshwater source on the Niijima Island, we can provide suggestions on preparedness of tsunami disasters and guidelines of supplying water resource in post-tsunami period based on these numerical modelling results. This approach has implications for the disaster prevention and the better preparation with respect to tsunami and tsunami-like events such as storm surges on other coastal areas.

Reassessment of 50 years of seismicity in Simav-Gediz grabens (Western Turkey), based on earthquake relocations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karasozen, E.; Nissen, E.; Bergman, E. A.; Walters, R. J.

2013-12-01

Western Turkey is a rapidly deforming region with a long history of high-magnitude normal faulting earthquakes. However, the locations and slip rates of the responsible faults are poorly constrained. Here, we reassess a series of large instrumental earthquakes in the Simav-Gediz region, an area exhibiting a strong E-W gradient in N-S extension rates, from low rates bordering the Anatolian Plateau to much higher rates in the west. We start with investigating a recent Mw 5.9 earthquake at Simav (19 May 2011) using InSAR, teleseismic body-wave modeling and field observations. Next, we exploit the small but clear InSAR signal to relocate a series of older, larger earthquakes, using a calibrated earthquake relocation method which is based on the hypocentroidial decomposition (HDC) method for multiple event relocation. These improved locations in turn provide an opportunity to reassess the regional style of deformation. One interesting aspect of these earthquakes is that the largest (the Mw 7.2 Gediz earthquake, March 1970) occurred in an area of slow extension and indistinct surface faulting, whilst the well-defined and more rapidly extending Simav graben has ruptured in several smaller, Mw 6 events. However, our relocations highlight the existence of a significant gap in instrumental earthquakes along the central Simav graben, which, if it ruptured in a single event, could equal ~Mw 7. We were unable to identify fault scarps along this section due to dense vegetation and human modification, and we suggest that acquiring LiDAR data in this area should be a high priority in order to properly investigate earthquake hazard in the Simav graben.

Slip Behavior of the Queen Charlotte Plate Boundary Before and After the 2012, MW 7.8 Haida Gwaii Earthquake: Evidence From Repeating Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayward, Tim W.; Bostock, Michael G.

2017-11-01

The Queen Charlotte plate boundary, near Haida Gwaii, B.C., includes the dextral, strike-slip, Queen Charlotte Fault (QCF) and the subduction interface between the downgoing Pacific and overriding North American plates. In this study, we present a comprehensive repeating earthquake catalog that represents an effective slip meter for both structures. The catalog comprises 712 individual earthquakes (0.3≤MW≤3.5) arranged into 224 repeating earthquake families on the basis of waveform similarity and source separation estimates from coda wave interferometry. We employ and extend existing relationships for repeating earthquake magnitudes and slips to provide cumulative slip histories for the QCF and subduction interface in six adjacent zones within the study area between 52.3°N and 53.8°N. We find evidence for creep on both faults; however, creep rates are significantly less than plate motion rates, which suggests partial locking of both faults. The QCF exhibits the highest degrees of locking south of 52.8°N, which indicates that the seismic hazard for a major strike-slip earthquake is highest in the southern part of the study area. The 28 October 2012, MW 7.8 Haida Gwaii thrust earthquake occurred in our study area and altered the slip dynamics of the plate boundary. The QCF is observed to undergo accelerated, right-lateral slip for 1-2 months following the earthquake. The subduction interface exhibits afterslip thrust motion that persists for the duration of the study period (i.e., 3 years and 2 months after the Haida Gwaii earthquake). Afterslip is greatest (5.7-8.4 cm/yr) on the periphery of the main rupture zone of the Haida Gwaii event.

Triggering Factor of Strong Earthquakes and Its Prediction Verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Z. Q.; Ren, S. H.

After 30 yearsS research, we have found that great earthquakes are triggered by tide- generation force of the moon. ItSs not the tide-generation force in classical view- points, but is a non-classical viewpoint tide-generation force. We call it as TGFR (Tide-Generation ForcesS Resonance). TGFR strongly depends on the tide-generation force at time of the strange astronomical points (SAP). The SAP mostly are when the moon and another celestial body are arranged with the earth along a straight line (with the same apparent right ascension or 180o difference), the other SAP are the turning points of the moonSs relatively motion to the earth. Moreover, TGFR have four different types effective areas. Our study indicates that a majority of earthquakes are triggering by the rare superimposition of TGFRsS effective areas. In China the great earthquakes in the plain area of Hebei Province, Taiwan, Yunnan Province and Sichuan province are trigger by the decompression TGFR; Other earthquakes are trig- gered by compression TGFR which are in Gansu Province, Ningxia Provinces and northwest direction of Beijing. The great earthquakes in Japan, California, southeast of Europe also are triggered by compression of the TGFR. and in the other part of the world like in Philippines, Central America countries, and West Asia, great earthquakes are triggered by decompression TGFR. We have carried out examinational immediate prediction cooperate TGFR method with other earthquake impending signals such as suggested by Professor Li Junzhi. The successful ratio is about 40%(from our fore- cast reports to the China Seismological Administration). Thus we could say the great earthquake can be predicted (include immediate earthquake prediction). Key words: imminent prediction; triggering factor; TGFR (Tide-Generation ForcesS Resonance); TGFR compression; TGFR compression zone; TGFR decompression; TGFR decom- pression zone

Microearthquake detection at 2012 M4.9 Qiaojia earthquake source area , the north of the Xiaojiang Fault in Yunnan, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Yang, H.; Zhou, S.; Yan, C.

2016-12-01

We perform a comprehensive analysis in Yunnan area based on continuous seismic data of 38 stations of Qiaojia Network in Xiaojiang Fault from 2012.3 to 2015.2. We use an effective method: Match and Locate (M&L, Zhang&Wen, 2015) to detect and locate microearthquakes to conduct our research. We first study dynamic triggering around the Xiaojiang Fault in Yunnan. The triggered earthquakes are identified as two impulsive seismic arrivals in 2Hz-highpass-filtered velocity seismograms during the passage of surface waves of large teleseismic earthquakes. We only find two earthquakes that may have triggered regional earthquakes through inspecting their spectrograms: Mexico Mw7.4 earthquake in 03/20/2012 and El Salvador Mw7.3 earthquake in 10/14/2014. To confirm the two earthquakes are triggered instead of coincidence, we use M&L to search if there are any repeating earthquakes. The result of the coefficients shows that it is a coincidence during the surface waves of El Salvador earthquake and whether 2012 Mexico have triggered earthquake is under discussion. We then visually inspect the 2-8Hz-bandpass-filterd velocity envelopes of these years to search for non-volcanic tremor. We haven't detected any signals similar to non-volcanic tremors yet. In the following months, we are going to study the 2012 M4.9 Qiaojia earthquake. It occurred only 30km west of the epicenter of the 2014 M6.5 Ludian earthquake. We use Match and Locate (M&L) technique to detect and relocate microearthquakes that occurred 2 days before and 3 days after the mainshock. Through this, we could obtain several times more events than listed in the catalogs provided by NEIC and reduce the magnitude of completeness Mc. We will also detect microearthquakes along Xiaojiang Fault using template earthquakes listed in the catalogs to learn more about fault shape and other properties of Xiaojiang Fault. Analyzing seismicity near Xiaojiang Fault systematically may cast insight on our understanding of the features of its nearby faults, geological structure in this area and rupture process of the typical earthquake. We will also try to compare its features with 2014 M6.5 Ludian earthquake.

Migrating slow slip detected by slow and repeating earthquakes along the Nankai trough, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uchida, N.; Obara, K.; Takagi, R.; Asano, Y.

2017-12-01

In the western part of the Nankai trough region, successive occurrences of deep non-volcanic tremors and shallow very low frequency earthquakes (VLFEs) associated with long-term slow slip events (SSEs) are reported in 2003 and 2010. To understand the link between the two seismic slow earthquakes, we identify small repeating earthquake in and around the region from the waveform similarity of earthquakes observed by NIED Hi-net. The result shows the repeaters are located in 15-30 km depth that is in between the depth range of the shallow VLFEs (depth <=15 km) and deep SSEs (depth>= 25km). They are also located outside of the source area of the 1946 Mw8.3 Nankai earthquake, consistent with the hypothesis that repeaters occur due to stress concentration to a locked patch by aseismic slip (creep) in the surrounding area. The long-term trend of aseismic slip estimated from the repeaters shows that the slip rate were faster during 2-3 years period before the 2003 and 2010 episodes. We also found short-term (days to month) accelerations of aseismic slip during the episode of 2010 that migrated toward north. The migration detected from repeaters follows shallow migration of VLFEs and precedes the deep migration of tremors. Therefore we consider that during the period of the long-term SSE of 3 years period, short-term slow slip migrated about 300 km length in 1 month from shallower and south part to deeper and north part of the plate boundary near the edge of the slip area of the Nankai earthquake. Such long-distance migration probably related to large-scale locking of plate boundary that is responsible to the Nankai earthquake and the interseismic stress concentration to the locked area.

The street as an area of human exposure in an earthquake aftermath: the case of Lorca, Spain, 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertran Rojo, Marc; Beck, Elise; Lutoff, Céline

2017-04-01

The earthquake which struck the city of Lorca, Spain, on 11 May 2011 killed 9 people, injured over 300 and caused considerable damage, including one collapsed building. Streets near buildings were the main danger areas for people. This article proposes an dynamic ad hoc spatio-temporal method for studying individual evacuation after an earthquake. Its application to the Lorca case shows the spatial and temporal variability of individual exposure levels in the street during the hours following the shock. As yet little studied, human exposure deserves more attention, particularly in zones of moderate seismicity like the Euro-Mediterranean area. The results of this study could be helpful for enhancing the evacuation planning after an earthquake, stressing the specific dangers in the street.

Identifying slow-moving landslides using LiDAR DEM and SAR interferometry: An Example of 2006 Meinong Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, R. F.; Lin, C. W.; Hsu, Y. J.; Zhang, L.; Liang, H. Y.

2017-12-01

The February 6 Meinong Earthquake of 2016 (ML=6.4; at 23.85ºN, 120.81ºE), with a focal depth of 16.7 km, was triggered by an unknown blind thrust in southern Taiwan. The earthquake not only induced coseismic crustal deformation, but also triggered slow-moving landslides nearby the Longchuan active fault. In this study, high-resolution LiDAR derived DEM of 2010 is used to recognize locations of previous slow-moving landslides according to their topographic signatures, such as main escarpment, trench, double ridge, and crown cracks. Within an area of 4.5 km x 1.8 km along Longchuan fault near the ridge of Longchuan mountain, over 50 sites with landslide signatures are recognized, and three of them are over 10 ha. These earthquake-induced landslide deformations are detected from InSAR (synthetic aperture radar interferometry) images using Advanced Land Observing Satellite ALOS2/Phased-array L band and Sentinel 1 C-band SAR (PALSAR) data taken before and after the earthquake; some significant landslide deformation are even overlapped with areas where previous slow moving landslides were identified on the LiDAR DEM. Additionally, field investigation right after the earthquake in the study area also support that these previously identified landslides reactivated in the earthquake. Although these landslides do not cause serious damage due to their minor displacement in the Meinong Earthquake, the study results prove that LiDAR DEM is a powerful tool to identify and continuously monitor slow-motion landslides for preventing catastrophic failures that may be caused by hazardous earthquake or heavy rainfall.

2017 One‐year seismic‐hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Shumway, Allison; McNamara, Daniel E.; Williams, Robert; Llenos, Andrea L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

2017-01-01

We produce a one‐year 2017 seismic‐hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes that updates the 2016 one‐year forecast; this map is intended to provide information to the public and to facilitate the development of induced seismicity forecasting models, methods, and data. The 2017 hazard model applies the same methodology and input logic tree as the 2016 forecast, but with an updated earthquake catalog. We also evaluate the 2016 seismic‐hazard forecast to improve future assessments. The 2016 forecast indicated high seismic hazard (greater than 1% probability of potentially damaging ground shaking in one year) in five focus areas: Oklahoma–Kansas, the Raton basin (Colorado/New Mexico border), north Texas, north Arkansas, and the New Madrid Seismic Zone. During 2016, several damaging induced earthquakes occurred in Oklahoma within the highest hazard region of the 2016 forecast; all of the 21 moment magnitude (M) ≥4 and 3 M≥5 earthquakes occurred within the highest hazard area in the 2016 forecast. Outside the Oklahoma–Kansas focus area, two earthquakes with M≥4 occurred near Trinidad, Colorado (in the Raton basin focus area), but no earthquakes with M≥2.7 were observed in the north Texas or north Arkansas focus areas. Several observations of damaging ground‐shaking levels were also recorded in the highest hazard region of Oklahoma. The 2017 forecasted seismic rates are lower in regions of induced activity due to lower rates of earthquakes in 2016 compared with 2015, which may be related to decreased wastewater injection caused by regulatory actions or by a decrease in unconventional oil and gas production. Nevertheless, the 2017 forecasted hazard is still significantly elevated in Oklahoma compared to the hazard calculated from seismicity before 2009.

Study on Seismogenesis of 2013 Ms5.1 Badong Earthquake in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Zeng, Z.; Xu, S.; He, C.

2015-12-01

On 16 December, 2013, an earthquake of Ms5.1 occurred in Badong County, the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China. We collected all the 150 published focal mechanism solutions (FMS) and inversed the tectonic stress field in Badong, the Three Gorges Dam and Huangling anticline area using the software SATSI (Hardebeck and Michael, 2006). Inversion results show that the orientations of maximum principle stress axis (σ1) in Badong plunge to NNE or SSW. Detailed characteristics of the stress field indicate that the σ1 axis is almost vertical in the center of Huangling anticline and turns horizontal to the west. As to deep structures, we studied the satellite gravity anomalies of 8-638 order in this area using the EIGEN-6C2 model provided by ICGRM. Combining the seismic sounding profile through the epicenter of Badong earthquake and the petrology data, we reinterpreted the deep structure in the study area. The results show that the deep crust in Badong is unstable and the deep material's upwelling leads to Huangling anticline continued uplifting, which is consistent with the result indicated from the stress filed. Both of them provide energy for the preparation of earthquake. The FMS shows that Gaoqiao Fault is the causative fault of this Ms5.1 earthquake. Field investigations indicated that the lithology and fracture characteristic in Badong is beneficial to reservoir water infiltration. Before the earthquake, reservoir water level raised to 175m, the highest storage level, which increased the loading. Based on above researches, we believe that the Ms5.1 Badong earthquake is controlled by deep tectonic environment and stress field in shallow crust. The reservoir water infiltration and uploading increase generated by water storage of the Three Gorges area reduced the strength of Gaoqiao Fault and changed its stress state. These factors jointly promoted an abrupt movement of the fault in the critical stress state, and triggered the Ms5.1 Badong earthquake.

Increased Earthquake Rates in the Central and Eastern US Portend Higher Earthquake Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llenos, A. L.; Rubinstein, J. L.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Mueller, C. S.; Michael, A. J.; McGarr, A.; Petersen, M. D.; Weingarten, M.; Holland, A. A.

2014-12-01

Since 2009 the central and eastern United States has experienced an unprecedented increase in the rate of M≥3 earthquakes that is unlikely to be due to natural variation. Where the rates have increased so has the seismic hazard, making it important to understand these changes. Areas with significant seismicity increases are limited to areas where oil and gas production take place. By far the largest contributor to the seismicity increase is Oklahoma, where recent studies suggest that these rate changes may be due to fluid injection (e.g., Keranen et al., Geology, 2013; Science, 2014). Moreover, the area of increased seismicity in northern Oklahoma that began in 2013 coincides with the Mississippi Lime play, where well completions greatly increased the year before the seismicity increase. This suggests a link to oil and gas production either directly or from the disposal of significant amounts of produced water within the play. For the purpose of assessing the hazard due to these earthquakes, should they be treated differently from natural earthquakes? Previous studies suggest that induced seismicity may differ from natural seismicity in clustering characteristics or frequency-magnitude distributions (e.g., Bachmann et al., GJI, 2011; Llenos and Michael, BSSA, 2013). These differences could affect time-independent hazard computations, which typically assume that clustering and size distribution remain constant. In Oklahoma, as well as other areas of suspected induced seismicity, we find that earthquakes since 2009 tend to be considerably more clustered in space and time than before 2009. However differences between various regional and national catalogs leave unclear whether there are significant changes in magnitude distribution. Whether they are due to natural or industrial causes, the increased earthquake rates in these areas could increase the hazard in ways that are not accounted for in current hazard assessment practice. Clearly the possibility of induced earthquakes needs to be considered in seismic hazard assessments.

Application and analysis of debris-flow early warning system in Wenchuan earthquake-affected area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, D. L.; Zhang, S. J.; Yang, H. J.; Zhao, L. Q.; Jiang, Y. H.; Tang, D.; Leng, X. P.

2016-02-01

The activities of debris flow (DF) in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area significantly increased after the earthquake on 12 May 2008. The safety of the lives and property of local people is threatened by DFs. A physics-based early warning system (EWS) for DF forecasting was developed and applied in this earthquake area. This paper introduces an application of the system in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area and analyzes the prediction results via a comparison to the DF events triggered by the strong rainfall events reported by the local government. The prediction accuracy and efficiency was first compared with a contribution-factor-based system currently used by the weather bureau of Sichuan province. The storm on 17 August 2012 was used as a case study for this comparison. The comparison shows that the false negative rate and false positive rate of the new system is, respectively, 19 and 21 % lower than the system based on the contribution factors. Consequently, the prediction accuracy is obviously higher than the system based on the contribution factors with a higher operational efficiency. On the invitation of the weather bureau of Sichuan province, the authors upgraded their prediction system of DF by using this new system before the monsoon of Wenchuan earthquake-affected area in 2013. Two prediction cases on 9 July 2013 and 10 July 2014 were chosen to further demonstrate that the new EWS has high stability, efficiency, and prediction accuracy.

Stress-based aftershock forecasts made within 24h post mainshock: Expected north San Francisco Bay area seismicity changes after the 2014M=6.0 West Napa earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsons, Thomas E.; Segou, Margaret; Sevilgen, Volkan; Milner, Kevin; Field, Edward; Toda, Shinji; Stein, Ross S.

2014-01-01

We calculate stress changes resulting from the M= 6.0 West Napa earthquake on north San Francisco Bay area faults. The earthquake ruptured within a series of long faults that pose significant hazard to the Bay area, and we are thus concerned with potential increases in the probability of a large earthquake through stress transfer. We conduct this exercise as a prospective test because the skill of stress-based aftershock forecasting methodology is inconclusive. We apply three methods: (1) generalized mapping of regional Coulomb stress change, (2) stress changes resolved on Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast faults, and (3) a mapped rate/state aftershock forecast. All calculations were completed within 24 h after the main shock and were made without benefit of known aftershocks, which will be used to evaluative the prospective forecast. All methods suggest that we should expect heightened seismicity on parts of the southern Rodgers Creek, northern Hayward, and Green Valley faults.

Stress-based aftershock forecasts made within 24 h postmain shock: Expected north San Francisco Bay area seismicity changes after the 2014 M = 6.0 West Napa earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parsons, Tom; Segou, Margaret; Sevilgen, Volkan; Milner, Kevin; Field, Edward; Toda, Shinji; Stein, Ross S.

2014-12-01

We calculate stress changes resulting from the M = 6.0 West Napa earthquake on north San Francisco Bay area faults. The earthquake ruptured within a series of long faults that pose significant hazard to the Bay area, and we are thus concerned with potential increases in the probability of a large earthquake through stress transfer. We conduct this exercise as a prospective test because the skill of stress-based aftershock forecasting methodology is inconclusive. We apply three methods: (1) generalized mapping of regional Coulomb stress change, (2) stress changes resolved on Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast faults, and (3) a mapped rate/state aftershock forecast. All calculations were completed within 24 h after the main shock and were made without benefit of known aftershocks, which will be used to evaluative the prospective forecast. All methods suggest that we should expect heightened seismicity on parts of the southern Rodgers Creek, northern Hayward, and Green Valley faults.

Relationship between isoseismal area and magnitude of historical earthquakes in Greece by a hybrid fuzzy neural network method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tselentis, G.-A.; Sokos, E.

2012-01-01

In this paper we suggest the use of diffusion-neural-networks, (neural networks with intrinsic fuzzy logic abilities) to assess the relationship between isoseismal area and earthquake magnitude for the region of Greece. It is of particular importance to study historical earthquakes for which we often have macroseismic information in the form of isoseisms but it is statistically incomplete to assess magnitudes from an isoseismal area or to train conventional artificial neural networks for magnitude estimation. Fuzzy relationships are developed and used to train a feed forward neural network with a back propagation algorithm to obtain the final relationships. Seismic intensity data from 24 earthquakes in Greece have been used. Special attention is being paid to the incompleteness and contradictory patterns in scanty historical earthquake records. The results show that the proposed processing model is very effective, better than applying classical artificial neural networks since the magnitude macroseismic intensity target function has a strong nonlinearity and in most cases the macroseismic datasets are very small.

Subducting seamounts control interplate coupling and seismic rupture in the 2014 Iquique earthquake area

PubMed Central

Geersen, Jacob; Ranero, César R.; Barckhausen, Udo; Reichert, Christian

2015-01-01

To date, the parameters that determine the rupture area of great subduction zone earthquakes remain contentious. On 1 April 2014, the Mw 8.1 Iquique earthquake ruptured a portion of the well-recognized northern Chile seismic gap but left large highly coupled areas un-ruptured. Marine seismic reflection and swath bathymetric data indicate that structural variations in the subducting Nazca Plate control regional-scale plate-coupling variations, and the limited extent of the 2014 earthquake. Several under-thrusting seamounts correlate to the southward and up-dip arrest of seismic rupture during the 2014 Iquique earthquake, thus supporting a causal link. By fracturing of the overriding plate, the subducting seamounts are likely further responsible for reduced plate-coupling in the shallow subduction zone and in a lowly coupled region around 20.5°S. Our data support that structural variations in the lower plate influence coupling and seismic rupture offshore Northern Chile, whereas the structure of the upper plate plays a minor role. PMID:26419949

Earthquakes; January-February, 1979

USGS Publications Warehouse

Person, W.J.

1979-01-01

The first major earthquake (magnitude 7.0 to 7.9) of the year struck in southeastern Alaska in a sparsely populated area on February 28. On January 16, Iran experienced the first destructive earthquake of the year causing a number of casualties and considerable damage. Peru was hit by a destructive earthquake on February 16 that left casualties and damage. A number of earthquakes were experienced in parts of the Untied States, but only minor damage was reported. 

Mega-thrust and Intra-slab Earthquakes Beneath Tokyo Metropolitan Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, N.; Sato, H.; Koketsu, K.; Hagiwara, H.; Wu, F.; Okaya, D.; Iwasaki, T.; Kasahara, K.

2006-12-01

In central Japan the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducts beneath the Tokyo Metropolitan area, the Kanto region, where it causes mega-thrust earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (M8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M7.9) which had 105,000 fatalities. The vertical proximity of this down going lithospheric plate is of concern because the greater Tokyo urban region has a population of 42 million and is the center of approximately 40% of the nation's economic activities. A M7+ earthquake in this region at present has high potential to produce devastating loss of life and property with even greater global economic repercussions. The M7+ earthquake is evaluated to occur with a probability of 70% in 30 years by the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan. In 2002, a consortium of universities and government agencies in Japan started the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Urban Areas, a project to improve information needed for seismic hazards analyses of the largest urban centers. Assessment in Kanto of the seismic hazard produced by the Philippine Sea Plate (PSP) mega-thrust earthquakes requires identification of all significant faults and possible earthquake scenarios and rupture behavior, regional characterizations of PSP geometry and the overlying Honshu arc physical properties (e.g., seismic wave velocities, densities, attenuation), and local near-surface seism ic site effects. Our study addresses (1) improved regional characterization of the PSP geometry based on new deep seismic reflection profiles (Sato etal.,2005), reprocessed off-shore profiles (Kimura et al.,2005), and a dense seismic array in the Boso peninsular (Hagiwara et al., 2006) and (2) identification of asperities of the mega-thrust at the top of the PSP. We qualitatively examine the relationship between seismic reflections and asperities inferred by reflection physical properties. We also discuss the relation between deformation of PSP and intra-slab M7+ earthquakes: the PSP is subducting beneath the Hoshu arc and also colliding with the Pacific plate. The subduction and collision both contribute active seismicity in the Kanto region. We present a high resolution tomographic image to show a low velocity zone which suggests a possible internal failure of the slab; a source region of the M7+ intra-slab earthquake. Our study contributes a new assessment of the seismic hazard in the Tokyo metropolitan area. tokyo.ac.jp/daidai/index-J.html

Earthquake scenario ground motions for the urban area of Evansville, Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haase, Jennifer S.; Nowack, Robert L.; Cramer, Chris H.; Boyd, Oliver S.; Bauer, Robert A.

2011-01-01

The Wabash Valley seismic zone and the New Madrid seismic zone are the closest large earthquake source zones to Evansville, Indiana. The New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-1812, over 180 kilometers (km) from Evansville, produced ground motions with a Modified Mercalli Intensity of VII near Evansville, the highest intensity observed in Indiana. Liquefaction evidence has been documented less than 40 km away from Evansville resulting from two large earthquakes in the past 12,000 years in the Wabash Valley. Two earthquake scenarios are described in this paper that demonstrate the expected ground motions for a 33×42-km region around Evansville based on a repeat earthquake from each of these source regions. We perform a one-dimensional analysis for a grid of sites that takes into account the amplification or deamplification of ground motion in the unconsolidated soil layer using a new three-dimensional model of seismic velocity and bedrock depth. There are significant differences in the calculated amplification from that expected for National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program site class D conditions, with deamplification at many locations within the ancient bedrock valley underlying Evansville. Ground motions relative to the acceleration of gravity (g) in the Evansville area from a simulation of a magnitude (M) 7.7 New Madrid earthquake range from 0.15 to 0.25 g for peak ground acceleration, 0.14 to 0.7 g for 0.2-second (s) spectral acceleration, and 0.05 to 0.25 g for 1.0-s spectral acceleration. Ground motions from a M6.8 Wabash Valley earthquake centered 40 km northwest of the city produce ground motions that decrease with distance from 1.5 to 0.3 g for 0.2-s spectral acceleration when they reach the main part of Evansville, but then increase in amplitude from 0.3 to 0.6 g south of the city and the Ohio River. The densest urbanization in Evansville and Henderson, Ky., is within the area of preferential amplification at 1.0-s period for both scenarios, but the area experiences relatively less amplification than surrounding areas at 0.2 s, consistent with expected resonance periods based on the soil profiles.

Radar Shows Italy Area Moved 8 Inches by Amatrice Earthquake

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-08-27

NASA and its partners are contributing observations and expertise to the ongoing response to the Aug. 23, 2016, magnitude 6.2 Amatrice earthquake in central Italy caused widespread building damage to several towns throughout the region. This earthquake was the strongest in that area since the 2009 earthquake that destroyed the city of L'Aquila. Scientists with the Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis project (ARIA), a collaboration between NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, and the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, analyzed interferometric synthetic aperture radar images from the PALSAR-2 instrument on the ALOS-2 satellite operated by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) to calculate a map of the deformation of Earth's surface caused by the quake. This false-color map shows the amount of permanent surface movement, as viewed by the satellite, during a seven-month interval between two ALOS-2 images acquired on Sept. 9, 2015 and Aug. 24, 2016. The movement was caused almost entirely by the earthquake. In this map, the colors of the surface displacements are proportional to the surface motion. The red and pink tones show the areas where the land moved toward the satellite by up to 2 inches (5 centimeters). The area with various shades of blue moved away from the satellite, mostly downward, by as much as 8 inches (20 centimeters). Contours on the surface motion are 2 inches (5 centimeters) The green star shows the epicenter where the earthquake started as located by the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center. Black dots show town locations. Scientists use these maps to build detailed models of the fault slip at depth and associated land movements to better understand the impact on future earthquake activity. The map shows the fault or faults that moved in the earthquake is about 14 miles (22 kilometers) long between Amatrice and Norcia and slopes to the west beneath the area that moved downward. The PALSAR-2 data were provided by JAXA through a science project. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA20893

The pattern of spatial flood disaster region in DKI Jakarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tambunan, M. P.

2017-02-01

The study of disaster flood area was conducted in DKI Jakarta Province, Indonesia. The aim of this research is: to study the spatial distribution of potential and actual of flood area The flood was studied from the geographic point of view using spatial approach, while the study of the location, the distribution, the depth and the duration of flooding was conducted using geomorphologic approach and emphasize on the detailed landform unit as analysis unit. In this study the landforms in DKI Jakarta have been a diversity, as well as spatial and temporal pattern of the actual and potential flood area. Landform at DKI Jakarta has been largely used as built up area for settlement and it facilities, thus affecting the distribution pattern of flooding area. The collection of the physical condition of landform in DKI Jakarta data prone were conducted through interpretation of the topographic map / RBI map and geological map. The flood data were obtained by survey and secondary data from Kimpraswil (Public Work) of DKI Jakarta Province for 3 years (1996, 2002, and 2007). Data of rainfall were obtained from BMKG and land use data were obtained from BPN DKI Jakarta. The analysis of the causal factors and distribution of flooding was made spatially and temporally using geographic information system. This study used survey method with a pragmatic approach. In this study landform as result from the analytical survey was settlement land use as result the synthetic survey. The primary data consist of landform, and the flood characteristic obtained by survey. The samples were using purposive sampling. Landform map was composed by relief, structure and material stone, and process data Landform map was overlay with flood map the flood prone area in DKI Jakarta Province in scale 1:50,000 to show. Descriptive analysis was used the spatial distribute of the flood prone area. The result of the study show that actual of flood prone area in the north, west and east of Jakarta lowland both in beach ridge, coastal alluvial plain, and alluvial plain; while the flood potential area on the slope is found flat and steep at alluvial fan, alluvial plain, beach ridge, and coastal alluvial plain in DKI Jakarta. Based on the result can be concluded that actual flood prone is not distributed on potential flood prone

Geologic environment of the Van Norman Reservoirs area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yerkes, R.F.; Bonilla, M.G.; Youd, T.L.; Sims, J.D.

1974-01-01

The upper and lower Van Norman dams, in northwesternmost San Fernando Valley about 20 mi (32 km) northwest of downtown Los Angeles, were severely damaged during the 1971 San Fernando earthquake. An investigation of the geologic-seismologic setting of the Van Norman area indicates that an earthquake of at least M 7.7 may be expected in the Van Norman area. The expectable transitory effects in the Van Norman area of such an earthquake are as follows: peak horizontal acceleration of at least 1.15 g, peak velocity of displacement of 4.43 ft/sec (135 cm/sec), peak displacement of 2.3 ft (70 cm), and duration of shaking at accelerations greater than 0.05 g, 40 sec. A great earthquake (M 8+) on the San Andreas fault, 25 mi distant, also is expectable. Transitory effects in the Van Norman area from such an earthquake are estimated as follows: peak horizontal acceleration of 0.5 g, peak velocity of 1.97 ft/sec (60 cm/sec), displacement of 1.31 ft (40 cm), and duration of shaking at accelerations greater than 0.05 g, 80 sec. The permanent effects of the expectable local earthquake could include simultaneous fault movement at the lower damsite, the upper damsite, and the site proposed for a replacement dam halfway between the upper and lower dams. The maximum differential displacements due to such movements are estimated at 16.4 ft (5 m) at the lower damsite and about 9.6 ft (2.93 m) at the upper and proposed damsites. The 1971 San Fernando earthquake (M 6?) was accompanied by the most intense ground motions ever recorded instrumentally for a natural earthquake. At the lower Van Norman dam, horizontal accelerations exceeded 0.6 g, and shaking greater than 0.25 g lasted for about 13 see; at Pacoima dam, 6 mi (10 km) northeast of the lower dam, high-frequency peak horizontal accelerations of 1.25 g were recorded in two directions, and shaking greater than 0.25 g lasted for about 7 sec. Permanent effects of the earthquake include slope failures in the embankments of the upper and lower Van Norman dams, rupturing of the ground surface by faulting along parts of the zone of old faults that extends easterly through the reservoir area and across the northern part of the valley, folding or arching of the ground surface, and differential horizontal displacement of the terrane north and south of the fault zone. Although a zone of old faults extends through the reservoir area, the 1971 surface ruptures apparently did not; however, arching and horizontal displacements caused small relative displacements of the abutment areas of each of the three damsites. The 1971 arching coincided with preexisting topographic highs, and the surface ruptures coincided with eroded fault scarps and a buried ground-water impediment formed by pre-1971 faulting in young valley fill. This coincidence with evidence of past deformation indicates that the 1971 deformations were the result of a continuing geologic process that is expected to produce similar deformations during future events. The 1971 San Fernando earthquake probably was not the largest that has occurred in this area during the last approximately 200 years, as indicated by a buried fault like scarp about 200 years old that is higher than, and aligned with, 1971 fault scarps. In addition, the San Fernando zone of 1971 ruptures is part of a regional tectonic system that includes the San Andreas and associated faults; one of these, the White Wolf fault north of the San Andreas, is symmetrical in structural attitude with the San Fernando zone and ruptured the ground surface during the 1952 Kern County earthquake (M 7.7). Other large earthquakes associated with surface rupturing on faults of this system include the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake (M 8+) and possibly the 1852 Big Pine earthquake. Several other historic earthquakes in this general area are not known to be associated with surface ruptures, but were large enough to cause damage in the northern San Fernando Valley. The Van Norman rese

Effect of slip-area scaling on the earthquake frequency-magnitude relationship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senatorski, Piotr

2017-06-01

The earthquake frequency-magnitude relationship is considered in the maximum entropy principle (MEP) perspective. The MEP suggests sampling with constraints as a simple stochastic model of seismicity. The model is based on the von Neumann's acceptance-rejection method, with b-value as the parameter that breaks symmetry between small and large earthquakes. The Gutenberg-Richter law's b-value forms a link between earthquake statistics and physics. Dependence between b-value and the rupture area vs. slip scaling exponent is derived. The relationship enables us to explain observed ranges of b-values for different types of earthquakes. Specifically, different b-value ranges for tectonic and induced, hydraulic fracturing seismicity is explained in terms of their different triggering mechanisms: by the applied stress increase and fault strength reduction, respectively.

Automated Radar Image of Deformation for Amatrice, Italy Earthquake

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-08-31

Amatrice earthquake in central Italy, which caused widespread building damage to several towns throughout the region. This earthquake was the strongest in that area since the 2009 earthquake that destroyed the city of L'Aquila. The Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) data system, a collaborative project between NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, and the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, automatically generated interferometric synthetic aperture radar images from the Copernicus Sentinel 1A satellite operated by the European Space Agency (ESA) for the European Commission to calculate a map of the deformation of Earth's surface caused by the quake. This false-color map shows the amount of permanent surface movement, as viewed by the satellite, during a 12-day interval between two Sentinel 1 images acquired on Aug. 15, 2016, and Aug. 27, 2016. The movement was caused almost entirely by the earthquake. In this map, the colors of the surface displacements are proportional to the surface motion. The red and pink tones show the areas where the land moved toward the satellite by up to 2 inches (5 centimeters). The area with various shades of blue moved away from the satellite, mostly downward, by as much as 8 inches (20 centimeters). Contours on the surface motion are 2 inches (5 centimeters) The green star shows the epicenter where the earthquake started as located by the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center. Black dots show town locations. Scientists use these maps to build detailed models of the fault slip at depth and associated land movements to better understand the impact on future earthquake activity. The map shows the fault or faults that moved in the earthquake is about 14 miles (22 kilometers) long between Amatrice and Norcia and slopes to the west beneath the area that moved downward. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA20896

Farmers’s perception and strategies for the development of sustainable livelihoods in disaster prone areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anantanyu, S.; Suwarto; Suminah

2018-03-01

Empowerment is a strategy to develop and build economy and community in both physically and mentally. One effort is to help generate a plan for community development in disaster-prone areas. For that, this study aims to develop farmers profile, to describe farmer perception towards farming effort and to formulate the empowerment strategies in the development of sustainable livelihoods in disaster prone areas. This study uses mixed methods. Farmers population use in this study were live in two villages of landslides prone areas, that are Beruk and Wonorejo which belongs Jatiyoso Subdistrict Karanganyar regency (Central Java). In depth structured interview was conducted to 150 farmers under Focus Group Discussion (FGD) followed with. data analysis using SWOT analysis. The results showed level of farm management is in anxiety level, perception of farmers toward the availability of agricultural inputs is at a reasonable level and the agricultural information becomes the reduction factors. The result of QSPM matrix calculation through SWOT analysis on livelihood of agricultural, resulting some strategy according to the priority level that are development of conservation farming, strengthening the farmers capacity in agricultural products processing, strengthening farmer groups and improving the performance of agriculture extensionist.

Whole-breast irradiation: a subgroup analysis of criteria to stratify for prone position treatment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramella, Sara, E-mail: s.ramella@unicampus.it; Trodella, Lucio; Ippolito, Edy

2012-07-01

To select among breast cancer patients and according to breast volume size those who may benefit from 3D conformal radiotherapy after conservative surgery applied with prone-position technique. Thirty-eight patients with early-stage breast cancer were grouped according to the target volume (TV) measured in the supine position: small ({<=}400 mL), medium (400-700 mL), and large ({>=}700 ml). An ad-hoc designed and built device was used for prone set-up to displace the contralateral breast away from the tangential field borders. All patients underwent treatment planning computed tomography in both the supine and prone positions. Dosimetric data to explore dose distribution and volumemore » of normal tissue irradiated were calculated for each patient in both positions. Homogeneity index, hot spot areas, the maximum dose, and the lung constraints were significantly reduced in the prone position (p < 0.05). The maximum heart distance and the V{sub 5Gy} did not vary consistently in the 2 positions (p = 0.06 and p = 0.7, respectively). The number of necessary monitor units was significantly higher in the supine position (312 vs. 232, p < 0.0001). The subgroups analysis pointed out the advantage in lung sparing in all TV groups (small, medium and large) for all the evaluated dosimetric constraints (central lung distance, maximum lung distance, and V{sub 5Gy}, p < 0.0001). In the small TV group, a dose reduction in nontarget areas of 22% in the prone position was detected (p = 0.056); in the medium and high TV groups, the difference was of about -10% (p = NS). The decrease in hot spot areas in nontarget tissues was 73%, 47%, and 80% for small, medium, and large TVs in the prone position, respectively. Although prone breast radiotherapy is normally proposed in patients with breasts of large dimensions, this study gives evidence of dosimetric benefit in all patient subgroups irrespective of breast volume size.« less

Preliminary Results of Earthquake-Induced Building Damage Detection with Object-Based Image Classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabuncu, A.; Uca Avci, Z. D.; Sunar, F.

2016-06-01

Earthquakes are the most destructive natural disasters, which result in massive loss of life, infrastructure damages and financial losses. Earthquake-induced building damage detection is a very important step after earthquakes since earthquake-induced building damage is one of the most critical threats to cities and countries in terms of the area of damage, rate of collapsed buildings, the damage grade near the epicenters and also building damage types for all constructions. Van-Ercis (Turkey) earthquake (Mw= 7.1) was occurred on October 23th, 2011; at 10:41 UTC (13:41 local time) centered at 38.75 N 43.36 E that places the epicenter about 30 kilometers northern part of the city of Van. It is recorded that, 604 people died and approximately 4000 buildings collapsed or seriously damaged by the earthquake. In this study, high-resolution satellite images of Van-Ercis, acquired by Quickbird-2 (Digital Globe Inc.) after the earthquake, were used to detect the debris areas using an object-based image classification. Two different land surfaces, having homogeneous and heterogeneous land covers, were selected as case study areas. As a first step of the object-based image processing, segmentation was applied with a convenient scale parameter and homogeneity criterion parameters. As a next step, condition based classification was used. In the final step of this preliminary study, outputs were compared with streetview/ortophotos for the verification and evaluation of the classification accuracy.

Temporal and spatial distributions of precursory seismicity rate changes in the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar border region: implication for upcoming hazardous earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puangjaktha, Prayot; Pailoplee, Santi

2018-01-01

To study the prospective areas of upcoming strong-to-major earthquakes, i.e., M w ≥ 6.0, a catalog of seismicity in the vicinity of the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar border region was generated and then investigated statistically. Based on the successful investigations of previous works, the seismicity rate change (Z value) technique was applied in this study. According to the completeness earthquake dataset, eight available case studies of strong-to-major earthquakes were investigated retrospectively. After iterative tests of the characteristic parameters concerning the number of earthquakes ( N) and time window ( T w ), the values of 50 and 1.2 years, respectively, were found to reveal an anomalous high Z-value peak (seismic quiescence) prior to the occurrence of six out of the eight major earthquake events studied. In addition, the location of the Z-value anomalies conformed fairly well to the epicenters of those earthquakes. Based on the investigation of correlation coefficient and the stochastic test of the Z values, the parameters used here ( N = 50 events and T w = 1.2 years) were suitable to determine the precursory Z value and not random phenomena. The Z values of this study and the frequency-magnitude distribution b values of a previous work both highlighted the same prospective areas that might generate an upcoming major earthquake: (i) some areas in the northern part of Laos and (ii) the eastern part of Myanmar.

Has El Salvador Fault Zone produced M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes? The 1719 El Salvador earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canora, C.; Martínez-Díaz, J.; Álvarez-Gómez, J.; Villamor, P.; Ínsua-Arévalo, J.; Alonso-Henar, J.; Capote, R.

2013-05-01

Historically, large earthquakes, Mw ≥ 7.0, in the Εl Salvador area have been attributed to activity in the Cocos-Caribbean subduction zone. Τhis is correct for most of the earthquakes of magnitude greater than 6.5. However, recent paleoseismic evidence points to the existence of large earthquakes associated with rupture of the Εl Salvador Fault Ζone, an Ε-W oriented strike slip fault system that extends for 150 km through central Εl Salvador. Τo calibrate our results from paleoseismic studies, we have analyzed the historical seismicity of the area. In particular, we suggest that the 1719 earthquake can be associated with paleoseismic activity evidenced in the Εl Salvador Fault Ζone. Α reinterpreted isoseismal map for this event suggests that the damage reported could have been a consequence of the rupture of Εl Salvador Fault Ζone, rather than rupture of the subduction zone. Τhe isoseismal is not different to other upper crustal earthquakes in similar tectonovolcanic environments. We thus challenge the traditional assumption that only the subduction zone is capable of generating earthquakes of magnitude greater than 7.0 in this region. Τhis result has broad implications for future risk management in the region. Τhe potential occurrence of strong ground motion, significantly higher and closer to the Salvadorian populations that those assumed to date, must be considered in seismic hazard assessment studies in this area.

Localised Effects of a Mega-Disturbance: Spatiotemporal Responses of Intertidal Sandy Shore Communities to the 2010 Chilean Earthquake.

PubMed

Sepúlveda, Roger D; Valdivia, Nelson

2016-01-01

Determining the effects of unpredictable disturbances on dynamic ecological systems is challenged by the paucity of appropriate temporal and spatial coverage of data. On 27 February 2010, an 8.8 Mw mega-earthquake and tsunami struck central Chile and caused coastal land-level changes, massive damage to coastal infrastructure, and widespread mortality of coastal organisms. Wave-exposed sandy beaches showed significant changes of species abundances from before to after the earthquake, but the highly dynamic biotic and abiotic conditions of these habitats make difficult to draw clear-cut conclusions from these patterns. Here, we analysed a beyond-BACI (Before-After Control-Impact) sampling design to test whether the effects of the Maule earthquake on sandy-shore species diversity, abundance, and structure were heterogeneous along the shore. Invertebrate species abundances were quantified before (i.e. February 2010) and after (i.e. March 2010, September 2010, and March 2011) the earthquake at three sandy shores randomly located within the earthquake rupture area and three sites within a "control" area located >400 km southward from epicentre. Immediately after the earthquake took place, the three sites located in the rupture area showed anomalous beach-profile uplifts that did not comply with the erosion (i.e. "negative" uplifts) that regularly occurs during late summer in the region. Species richness, abundance, and community structure significantly varied from before to after the strike, but these patterns of change varied among sites within both areas. Only the site with the strongest and persistent beach-profile uplift within the rupture area showed significant concomitant changes in species richness and community structure; after 13 months, this community showed a similar multivariate structure to the before-disturbance state. This site, in particular, was located in the section of the rupture area that received most of the impact of the after-earthquake tsunami. Therefore, our results suggest that the effects of the Maule mega-earthquake on the ecological communities were spatially heterogeneous and highly localised. We suggest that high mobility and other species' adaptations to the dynamic environmental conditions of sandy beaches might explain the comparatively high resilience of these assemblages. With this work we hope to motivate further experimental research on the role of individual- and population-level properties in the response of sandy-beach communities to interacting sources of disturbances.

Localised Effects of a Mega-Disturbance: Spatiotemporal Responses of Intertidal Sandy Shore Communities to the 2010 Chilean Earthquake

PubMed Central

Sepúlveda, Roger D.; Valdivia, Nelson

2016-01-01

Determining the effects of unpredictable disturbances on dynamic ecological systems is challenged by the paucity of appropriate temporal and spatial coverage of data. On 27 February 2010, an 8.8 Mw mega-earthquake and tsunami struck central Chile and caused coastal land-level changes, massive damage to coastal infrastructure, and widespread mortality of coastal organisms. Wave-exposed sandy beaches showed significant changes of species abundances from before to after the earthquake, but the highly dynamic biotic and abiotic conditions of these habitats make difficult to draw clear-cut conclusions from these patterns. Here, we analysed a beyond-BACI (Before-After Control-Impact) sampling design to test whether the effects of the Maule earthquake on sandy-shore species diversity, abundance, and structure were heterogeneous along the shore. Invertebrate species abundances were quantified before (i.e. February 2010) and after (i.e. March 2010, September 2010, and March 2011) the earthquake at three sandy shores randomly located within the earthquake rupture area and three sites within a “control” area located >400 km southward from epicentre. Immediately after the earthquake took place, the three sites located in the rupture area showed anomalous beach-profile uplifts that did not comply with the erosion (i.e. “negative” uplifts) that regularly occurs during late summer in the region. Species richness, abundance, and community structure significantly varied from before to after the strike, but these patterns of change varied among sites within both areas. Only the site with the strongest and persistent beach-profile uplift within the rupture area showed significant concomitant changes in species richness and community structure; after 13 months, this community showed a similar multivariate structure to the before-disturbance state. This site, in particular, was located in the section of the rupture area that received most of the impact of the after-earthquake tsunami. Therefore, our results suggest that the effects of the Maule mega-earthquake on the ecological communities were spatially heterogeneous and highly localised. We suggest that high mobility and other species’ adaptations to the dynamic environmental conditions of sandy beaches might explain the comparatively high resilience of these assemblages. With this work we hope to motivate further experimental research on the role of individual- and population-level properties in the response of sandy-beach communities to interacting sources of disturbances. PMID:27383744

The influence of the great Hanshin earthquake on human response to environmental vibration due to the Shinkansen.

PubMed

Sumitomo, S; Tsujimoto, S; Maeda, S; Kitamura, Y

1998-07-01

A severe earthquake of magnitude 7.2 hit the west part of Japan on January 17, 1995. A part of the Shinkansen railway, which is one of the most popular high-speed mass transportation systems in Japan, was seriously damaged by the earthquake. About 80 days later, the Shinkansen service was resumed but complaints about vibration due to the passing Shinkansen increased rapidly among residents near the tracks. This paper reports the results of two investigations that were carried out in both stricken and non-stricken areas to determine the cause of complaint. In the first investigation, the ground vibration propagation induced by passing trains was measured. In the second investigation, questionnaires were distributed to the people living near the Shinkansen tracks. As a result, it was found out that the vibration levels before and after the earthquake were almost the same at most measured points in the stricken area. It was also found that the vibration levels in the stricken area and a non-stricken area were almost the same within 50 m from the Shinkansen tracks. However the results of the questionnaire survey showed that people's nuisance due to the vibration in the stricken area was clearly greater than that in the non-stricken area. This inconsistency was explained using the "category judgment method", which is generally used to determine the relationship between a physical stimulus and psychological reaction. According to the results of this analysis, the vibration level, at which 50% of the inhabitants complained about Shinkansen vibration, was approximately 54 dB in the non-stricken area and 50 dB in the stricken area. This result suggests that the people who experienced the severe earthquake became 4 dB more sensitive to the Shinkansen vibration than the people living in a non-stricken area despite the fact that this investigation was carried out 10 months after the earthquake struck.

Increase in earthquake swarm activity in the southern Red Sea, Afar and Gulf of Aden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruch, Joël; Keir, Derek; Ogubazghi, Ghebrebrhan; di Giacomo, Domenico; Ladron Viltres, Renier; Jónsson, Sigurjón

2017-04-01

Rifting events periodically occur at divergent plate boundaries, consisting of magmatic intrusions, seismic swarms, surface faulting and in some cases volcanic eruptions. While earthquake swarms also occur at other types of plate boundaries, the swarms that have been observed in inland rift zones (e.g., in Afar and Iceland) and in a few offshore cases show an unambiguous relation with magmatic intrusions. These swarms typically last for a few days to a few weeks, lack a clear mainshock-aftershock decay pattern. Here we present a new study on earthquake swarms in the southern Red Sea, Afar and Gulf of Aden. We provide the first earthquake swarm catalogue for the region, which we compiled by integrating reexamined global and local earthquake catalogues with historical observations from 1960 to 2016. We find that in several cases in all the three areas, swarms have been re-occurring at the same locations every few decades (e.g., in the Bada area in Eritrea and Port Sudan region in the southern Red Sea in 1967 and 1993, and in the western Gulf of Aden in 1979, 1997 and 2010-2012). This suggests the existence of active spreading centers that are more active than previously thought. The swarms show different families of earthquake magnitudes, with clusters of Mw4 and Mw5 events (southern Red Sea and Aden) and occasional larger than Mw6 events, primarily in the southern Afar region (the Serdo and Dobi areas). Of the three areas, Gulf of Aden shows the highest swarm activity, followed by the Afar area and the southern Red Sea. Despite seeing the least amount of activity and lower magnitudes, the southern Red Sea has experienced multiple earthquake swarms and three volcanic eruptions (two of which resulted in new volcanic islands) during the past 10 years. We show that the three areas have been subject to an almost simultaneous increase of earthquake swarm activity during the last 10 years. This period (2005-2014) was much more active compared to the preceding decades (1960-2005) and might indicate an increase of magma supply in the region.

The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe

PubMed Central

duPont IV, William; Noy, Ilan; Okuyama, Yoko; Sawada, Yasuyuki

2015-01-01

We quantify the ‘permanent’ socio-economic impacts of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake in 1995 by employing a large-scale panel dataset of 1,719 cities, towns, and wards from Japan over three decades. In order to estimate the counterfactual—i.e., the Kobe economy without the earthquake—we use the synthetic control method. Three important empirical patterns emerge: First, the population size and especially the average income level in Kobe have been lower than the counterfactual level without the earthquake for over fifteen years, indicating a permanent negative effect of the earthquake. Such a negative impact can be found especially in the central areas which are closer to the epicenter. Second, the surrounding areas experienced some positive permanent impacts in spite of short-run negative effects of the earthquake. Much of this is associated with movement of people to East Kobe, and consequent movement of jobs to the metropolitan center of Osaka, that is located immediately to the East of Kobe. Third, the furthest areas in the vicinity of Kobe seem to have been insulated from the large direct and indirect impacts of the earthquake. PMID:26426998

Investigation of the relationship between ionospheric foF2 and earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karaboga, Tuba; Canyilmaz, Murat; Ozcan, Osman

2018-04-01

Variations of the ionospheric F2 region critical frequency (foF2) have been investigated statistically before earthquakes during 1980-2008 periods in Japan area. Ionosonde data was taken from Kokubunji station which is in the earthquake preparation zone for all earthquakes. Standard Deviations and Inter-Quartile Range methods are applied to the foF2 data. It is observed that there are anomalous variations in foF2 before earthquakes. These variations can be regarded as ionospheric precursors and may be used for earthquake prediction.

Scenario earthquake hazards for the Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area, east-central California (ver. 2.0, January 2018)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, Rui; Branum, David M.; Wills, Chris J.; Hill, David P.

2014-06-30

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) multi-hazards project in the Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area, the California Geological Survey (CGS) developed several earthquake scenarios and evaluated potential seismic hazards, including ground shaking, surface fault rupture, liquefaction, and landslide hazards associated with these earthquake scenarios. The results of these analyses can be useful in estimating the extent of potential damage and economic losses because of potential earthquakes and also for preparing emergency response plans.The Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area has numerous active faults. Five of these faults or fault zones are considered capable of producing magnitude ≥6.7 earthquakes according to the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2) developed by the 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) and the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Program. These five faults are the Fish Slough, Hartley Springs, Hilton Creek, Mono Lake, and Round Valley Faults. CGS developed earthquake scenarios for these five faults in the study area and for the White Mountains Fault Zone to the east of the study area.In this report, an earthquake scenario is intended to depict the potential consequences of significant earthquakes. A scenario earthquake is not necessarily the largest or most damaging earthquake possible on a recognized fault. Rather it is both large enough and likely enough that emergency planners should consider it in regional emergency response plans. In particular, the ground motion predicted for a given scenario earthquake does not represent a full probabilistic hazard assessment, and thus it does not provide the basis for hazard zoning and earthquake-resistant building design.Earthquake scenarios presented here are based on fault geometry and activity data developed by the WGCEP, and are consistent with the 2008 Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHM). Alternatives to the NSHM scenario were developed for the Hilton Creek and Hartley Springs Faults to account for different opinions in how far these two faults extend into Long Valley Caldera. For each scenario, ground motions were calculated using the current standard practice: the deterministic seismic hazard analysis program developed by Art Frankel of USGS and three Next Generation Ground Motion Attenuation (NGA) models. Ground motion calculations incorporated the potential amplification of seismic shaking by near-surface soils defined by a map of the average shear wave velocity in the uppermost 30 m (VS30) developed by CGS.In addition to ground shaking and shaking-related ground failure such as liquefaction and earthquake induced landslides, earthquakes cause surface rupture displacement, which can lead to severe damage of buildings and lifelines. For each earthquake scenario, potential surface fault displacements are estimated using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Liquefaction occurs when saturated sediments lose their strength because of ground shaking. Zones of potential liquefaction are mapped by incorporating areas where loose sandy sediments, shallow groundwater, and strong earthquake shaking coincide in the earthquake scenario. The process for defining zones of potential landslide and rockfall incorporates rock strength, surface slope, and existing landslides, with ground motions caused by the scenario earthquake.Each scenario is illustrated with maps of seismic shaking potential and fault displacement, liquefaction, and landslide potential. Seismic shaking is depicted by the distribution of shaking intensity, peak ground acceleration, and 1.0-second spectral acceleration. One-second spectral acceleration correlates well with structural damage to surface facilities. Acceleration greater than 0.2 g is often associated with strong ground shaking and may cause moderate to heavy damage. The extent of strong shaking is influenced by subsurface fault dip and near surface materials. Strong shaking is more widespread in the hanging wall regions of a normal fault. Larger ground motions also occur where young alluvial sediments amplify the shaking. Both of these effects can lead to strong shaking that extends farther from the fault on the valley side than on the hill side.The effect of fault rupture displacements may be localized along the surface trace of the mapped earthquake fault if fault geometry is simple and the fault traces are accurately located. However, surface displacement hazards can spread over a few hundred meters to a few kilometers if the earthquake fault has numerous splays or branches, such as the Hilton Creek Fault. Faulting displacements are estimated to be about 1 meter along normal faults in the study area and close to 2 meters along the White Mountains Fault Zone.All scenarios show the possibility of widespread ground failure. Liquefaction damage would likely occur in the areas of higher ground shaking near the faults where there are sandy/silty sediments and the depth to groundwater is 6.1 meters (20 feet) or less. Generally, this means damage is most common near lakes and streams in the areas of strongest shaking. Landslide potential exists throughout the study region. All steep slopes (>30 degrees) present a potential hazard at any level of shaking. Lesser slopes may have landslides within the areas of the higher ground shaking. The landslide hazard zones also are likely sources for snow avalanches during winter months and for large boulders that can be shaken loose and roll hundreds of feet down hill, which happened during the 1980 Mammoth Lakes earthquakes.Whereas methodologies used in estimating ground shaking, liquefaction, and landslides are well developed and have been applied in published hazard maps; methodologies used in estimating surface fault displacement are still being developed. Therefore, this report provides a more in-depth and detailed discussion of methodologies used for deterministic and probabilistic fault displacement hazard analyses for this project.

Protracted fluvial recovery from medieval earthquakes, Pokhara, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stolle, Amelie; Bernhardt, Anne; Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Andermann, Christoff; Schönfeldt, Elisabeth; Seidemann, Jan; Adhikari, Basanta R.; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

2016-04-01

River response to strong earthquake shaking in mountainous terrain often entails the flushing of sediments delivered by widespread co-seismic landsliding. Detailed mass-balance studies following major earthquakes in China, Taiwan, and New Zealand suggest fluvial recovery times ranging from several years to decades. We report a detailed chronology of earthquake-induced valley fills in the Pokhara region of western-central Nepal, and demonstrate that rivers continue to adjust to several large medieval earthquakes to the present day, thus challenging the notion of transient fluvial response to seismic disturbance. The Pokhara valley features one of the largest and most extensively dated sedimentary records of earthquake-triggered sedimentation in the Himalayas, and independently augments paleo-seismological archives obtained mainly from fault trenches and historic documents. New radiocarbon dates from the catastrophically deposited Pokhara Formation document multiple phases of extremely high geomorphic activity between ˜700 and ˜1700 AD, preserved in thick sequences of alternating fluvial conglomerates, massive mud and silt beds, and cohesive debris-flow deposits. These dated fan-marginal slackwater sediments indicate pronounced sediment pulses in the wake of at least three large medieval earthquakes in ˜1100, 1255, and 1344 AD. We combine these dates with digital elevation models, geological maps, differential GPS data, and sediment logs to estimate the extent of these three pulses that are characterized by sedimentation rates of ˜200 mm yr-1 and peak rates as high as 1,000 mm yr-1. Some 5.5 to 9 km3 of material infilled the pre-existing topography, and is now prone to ongoing fluvial dissection along major canyons. Contemporary river incision into the Pokhara Formation is rapid (120-170 mm yr-1), triggering widespread bank erosion, channel changes, and very high sediment yields of the order of 103 to 105 t km-2 yr-1, that by far outweigh bedrock denudation rates inferred from cosmogenic 10Be inventories in river sands. The rapid infill of about a dozen tributary valleys displaced river channels, and caused them to re-incise into bedrock along steep epigenetic gorges. We conclude that the Pokhara Formation offers a unique archive of medieval earthquakes as well as the associated protracted fluvial response that may have been ongoing for up to 900 years.

GIS Based System for Post-Earthquake Crisis Managment Using Cellular Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raeesi, M.; Sadeghi-Niaraki, A.

2013-09-01

Earthquakes are among the most destructive natural disasters. Earthquakes happen mainly near the edges of tectonic plates, but they may happen just about anywhere. Earthquakes cannot be predicted. Quick response after disasters, like earthquake, decreases loss of life and costs. Massive earthquakes often cause structures to collapse, trapping victims under dense rubble for long periods of time. After the earthquake and destroyed some areas, several teams are sent to find the location of the destroyed areas. The search and rescue phase usually is maintained for many days. Time reduction for surviving people is very important. A Geographical Information System (GIS) can be used for decreasing response time and management in critical situations. Position estimation in short period of time time is important. This paper proposes a GIS based system for post-earthquake disaster management solution. This system relies on several mobile positioning methods such as cell-ID and TA method, signal strength method, angel of arrival method, time of arrival method and time difference of arrival method. For quick positioning, the system can be helped by any person who has a mobile device. After positioning and specifying the critical points, the points are sent to a central site for managing the procedure of quick response for helping. This solution establishes a quick way to manage the post-earthquake crisis.

The characteristic of the building damage from historical large earthquakes in Kyoto

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishiyama, Akihito

2016-04-01

The Kyoto city, which is located in the northern part of Kyoto basin in Japan, has a long history of >1,200 years since the city was initially constructed. The city has been a populated area with many buildings and the center of the politics, economy and culture in Japan for nearly 1,000 years. Some of these buildings are now subscribed as the world's cultural heritage. The Kyoto city has experienced six damaging large earthquakes during the historical period: i.e., in 976, 1185, 1449, 1596, 1662, and 1830. Among these, the last three earthquakes which caused severe damage in Kyoto occurred during the period in which the urban area had expanded. These earthquakes are considered to be inland earthquakes which occurred around the Kyoto basin. The damage distribution in Kyoto from historical large earthquakes is strongly controlled by ground condition and earthquakes resistance of buildings rather than distance from estimated source fault. Therefore, it is necessary to consider not only the strength of ground shaking but also the condition of building such as elapsed years since the construction or last repair in order to more accurately and reliably estimate seismic intensity distribution from historical earthquakes in Kyoto. The obtained seismic intensity map would be helpful for reducing and mitigating disaster from future large earthquakes.

Earthquake Hazard Analysis Methods: A Review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sari, A. M.; Fakhrurrozi, A.

2018-02-01

One of natural disasters that have significantly impacted on risks and damage is an earthquake. World countries such as China, Japan, and Indonesia are countries located on the active movement of continental plates with more frequent earthquake occurrence compared to other countries. Several methods of earthquake hazard analysis have been done, for example by analyzing seismic zone and earthquake hazard micro-zonation, by using Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (N-DSHA) method, and by using Remote Sensing. In its application, it is necessary to review the effectiveness of each technique in advance. Considering the efficiency of time and the accuracy of data, remote sensing is used as a reference to the assess earthquake hazard accurately and quickly as it only takes a limited time required in the right decision-making shortly after the disaster. Exposed areas and possibly vulnerable areas due to earthquake hazards can be easily analyzed using remote sensing. Technological developments in remote sensing such as GeoEye-1 provide added value and excellence in the use of remote sensing as one of the methods in the assessment of earthquake risk and damage. Furthermore, the use of this technique is expected to be considered in designing policies for disaster management in particular and can reduce the risk of natural disasters such as earthquakes in Indonesia.

Evaluation of awareness and preparedness of school Principals and teachers on earthquake reduction effects issues - State's actions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kourou, Assimina; Ioakeimidou, Anastasia; Mokos, Vasileios; Bakas, Konstantinos

2013-04-01

It is generally accepted that the effects of the disasters can be mainly reduced if people are aware, well informed and motivated towards a culture of disaster prevention and resilience. Particularly, in earthquake prone countries, a continuous update and education of the public, on earthquake risk management issues, is essential. Schools can play a crucial role concerning training and building a disaster prevention culture, among various community groups. Principals and teachers have a key role to play in any school-wide initiative through developing and reviewing awareness policy, developing and revising emergency response plans, holding emergency drills and training the students. During the last decade, the Greek State have done a lot of efforts in order to better educate teachers and students in disaster preparedness and management, such as: a. implementation of the E.P.P.O.'s educational project "Earthquake Protection at Schools" which is addressed mainly to school Principals. The project started right after the 1999 earthquake in Athens. b. publication of educational material for students, teachers and people with disabilities and publication of guidelines concerning the development of emergency plans. c. implementation of projects and elaboration of innovative and mobile experiential educational material connected with school curricula. The aim of the present study is to assess levels of awareness and preparedness concerning earthquake protection issues, as well as risk mitigation behaviours, undertaken by teachers at individual, family and workplace level. Furthermore, the assessment of teachers' current levels of earthquake awareness and preparedness, could lead to conclusions about the effectiveness of State's current Policy. In this framework, specific questionnaires were developed and were addressed to Principals and teachers who were responsible for the preparation of their School Emergency Preparedness Plans. The sample of the survey comprises of primary and secondary schools of 9 different prefectures of Greece. Approximately 1.100 responses have been gathered. The analysis of the results indicated that approximately 60% of the surveyed teachers have experienced at least one earthquake at school, which is expected due to Greece's high seismicity (50% of the released seismic energy in Europe). Additionally, the level of knowledge of surveyed teachers on earthquake protection measures is very high. A significant majority of the teachers, were reported being familiar with the identification and reduction of non structural hazards at their home, and the development of School's Emergency Plans. On the other hand, approximately the 25% of the responders were not aware of their school emergency plan or they claimed that such a plan does not exist at their schools. These teachers have not participated in any earthquake school drill. Thus, even though a lot of State's initiatives have been implemented till now to build awareness towards earthquakes and establish a preparedness status for prospective earthquakes in school community, there are still proposed actions to be taken in order to improve the teachers' ability to plan or implement activities concerning earthquake management issues.

Earthquakes in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stover, C.

1977-01-01

To supplement data in the report Preliminary Determination of Epicenters (PDE), the National earthquake Information Service (NEIS) also publishes a quarterly circular, Earthquakes in the United States. This provides information on the felt area of U.S earthquakes and their intensity. The main purpose is to describe the larger effects of these earthquakes so that they can be used in seismic risk studies, site evaluations for nuclear power plants, and answering inquiries by the general public.

Spatio-temporal Variations of Characteristic Repeating Earthquake Sequences along the Middle America Trench in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominguez, L. A.; Taira, T.; Hjorleifsdottir, V.; Santoyo, M. A.

2015-12-01

Repeating earthquake sequences are sets of events that are thought to rupture the same area on the plate interface and thus provide nearly identical waveforms. We systematically analyzed seismic records from 2001 through 2014 to identify repeating earthquakes with highly correlated waveforms occurring along the subduction zone of the Cocos plate. Using the correlation coefficient (cc) and spectral coherency (coh) of the vertical components as selection criteria, we found a set of 214 sequences whose waveforms exceed cc≥95% and coh≥95%. Spatial clustering along the trench shows large variations in repeating earthquakes activity. Particularly, the rupture zone of the M8.1, 1985 earthquake shows an almost absence of characteristic repeating earthquakes, whereas the Guerrero Gap zone and the segment of the trench close to the Guerrero-Oaxaca border shows a significantly larger number of repeating earthquakes sequences. Furthermore, temporal variations associated to stress changes due to major shows episodes of unlocking and healing of the interface. Understanding the different components that control the location and recurrence time of characteristic repeating sequences is a key factor to pinpoint areas where large megathrust earthquakes may nucleate and consequently to improve the seismic hazard assessment.

Multi-segment earthquakes and tsunami potential of the Aleutian megathrust

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shennan, I.; Bruhn, R.; Plafker, G.

2009-01-01

Large to great earthquakes and related tsunamis generated on the Aleutian megathrust produce major hazards for both the area of rupture and heavily populated coastlines around much of the Pacific Ocean. Here we use paleoseismic records preserved in coastal sediments to investigate whether segment boundaries control the largest ruptures or whether in some seismic cycles segments combine to produce earthquakes greater than any observed since instrumented records began. Virtually the entire megathrust has ruptured since AD1900, with four different segments generating earthquakes >M8.0. The largest was the M9.2 great Alaska earthquake of March 1964 that ruptured ???800 km of the eastern segment of the megathrust. The tsunami generated caused fatalities in Alaska and along the coast as far south as California. East of the 1964 zone of deformation, the Yakutat microplate experienced two >M8.0 earthquakes, separated by a week, in September 1899. For the first time, we present evidence that earthquakes ???900 and ???1500 years ago simultaneously ruptured adjacent segments of the Aleutian megathrust and the Yakutat microplate, with a combined area ???15% greater than 1964, giving an earthquake of greater magnitude and increased tsunamigenic potential. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes in Hospitalization for Ischemic Heart Disease After the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake: 10 Years of Data in a Population of 300,000.

PubMed

Huang, Kaisen; Huang, Dejia; He, Dingxiu; van Loenhout, Joris; Liu, Wei; Huang, Baotao; Deng, Xiaojian; Wu, Qi; Chen, Mao; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2016-04-01

The effects of earthquakes on ischemic heart disease (IHD) have often been reported. At a population level, this study examined short-term (60-day) and long-term (5-year) hospitalization events for IHD after the 2008 Sichuan earthquake. We examined the 10-year medical hospitalization records on IHD in the city of Deyang provided by the Urban Employee Basic Health Insurance program. Evaluation of 19,083 hospitalizations showed a significantly lower proportional number and cost of hospitalizations in the 60 days after the earthquake (P<0.001). Hospitalizations were 27.81% lower than would have been expected in a normal year; costs were 32.53% lower. However, in the 5 years after the earthquake, the age-adjusted annual incidence of hospitalization increased significantly (P<0.001). In the fifth year after the earthquake, it was significantly higher in the extremely hard-hit area than in the hard-hit area (P<0.01). After the 2008 earthquake, short- and long-term patterns of hospitalization for IHD changed greatly, but in different ways. Our findings suggest that medical resources for IHD should be distributed dynamically over time after an earthquake.

Pulse-like partial ruptures and high-frequency radiation at creeping-locked transition during megathrust earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, Sylvain; Avouac, Jean-Philippe; Lapusta, Nadia; Jiang, Junle

2017-08-01

Megathrust earthquakes tend to be confined to fault areas locked in the interseismic period and often rupture them only partially. For example, during the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal, a slip pulse propagating along strike unzipped the bottom edge of the locked portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). The lower edge of the rupture produced dominant high-frequency (>1 Hz) radiation of seismic waves. We show that similar partial ruptures occur spontaneously in a simple dynamic model of earthquake sequences. The fault is governed by standard laboratory-based rate-and-state friction with the aging law and contains one homogenous velocity-weakening (VW) region embedded in a velocity-strengthening (VS) area. Our simulations incorporate inertial wave-mediated effects during seismic ruptures (they are thus fully dynamic) and account for all phases of the seismic cycle in a self-consistent way. Earthquakes nucleate at the edge of the VW area and partial ruptures tend to stay confined within this zone of higher prestress, producing pulse-like ruptures that propagate along strike. The amplitude of the high-frequency sources is enhanced in the zone of higher, heterogeneous stress at the edge of the VW area.

Pulse-Like Partial Ruptures and High-Frequency Radiation at Creeping-Locked Transition during Megathrust Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, S. G. R. M.; Avouac, J. P.; Lapusta, N.; Jiang, J.

2017-12-01

Megathrust earthquakes tend to be confined to fault areas locked in the interseismic period and often rupture them only partially. For example, during the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal, a slip pulse propagating along strike unzipped the bottom edge of the locked portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). The lower edge of the rupture produced dominant high-frequency (>1 Hz) radiation of seismic waves. We show that similar partial ruptures occur spontaneously in a simple dynamic model of earthquake sequences. The fault is governed by standard laboratory-based rate-and-state friction with the ageing law and contains one homogenous velocity-weakening (VW) region embedded in a velocity-strengthening (VS) area. Our simulations incorporate inertial wave-mediated effects during seismic ruptures (they are thus fully dynamic) and account for all phases of the seismic cycle in a self-consistent way. Earthquakes nucleate at the edge of the VW area and partial ruptures tend to stay confined within this zone of higher prestress, producing pulse-like ruptures that propagate along strike. The amplitude of the high-frequency sources is enhanced in the zone of higher, heterogeneous stress at the edge of the VW area.

Source parameters of a M4.8 and its accompanying repeating earthquakes off Kamaishi, NE Japan: Implications for the hierarchical structure of asperities and earthquake cycle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Uchida, N.; Matsuzawa, T.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Imanishi, K.; Okada, T.; Hasegawa, A.

2007-01-01

We determine the source parameters of a M4.9 ?? 0.1 'characteristic earthquake' sequence and its accompanying microearthquakes at ???50 km depth on the subduction plate boundary offshore of Kamaishi, NE Japan. The microearthquakes tend to occur more frequently in the latter half of the recurrence intervals of the M4.9 ?? 0.1 events. Our results show that the microearthquakes are repeating events and they are located not only around but also within the slip area for the 2001 M4.8 event. From the hierarchical structure of slip areas and smaller stress drops for the microearthquakes compared to the M4.8 event, we infer the small repeating earthquakes rupture relatively weak patches in and around the slip area for the M4.8 event and their activity reflects a stress concentration process and/or change in frictional property (healing) at the area. We also infer the patches for the M4.9 ?? 0.1 and other repeating earthquakes undergo aseismic slip during their interseismic period. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Thermal anomaly before earthquake and damage assessment using remote sensing data for 2014 Yutian earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yanmei; Huang, Haiying; Jiang, Zaisen; Fang, Ying; Cheng, Xiao

2014-12-01

Thermal anomaly appears to be a significant precursor of some strong earthquakes. In this study, time series of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) products from 2001 to 2014 are processed and analyzed to locate possible anomalies prior to the Yutian earthquake (12 February 2014, Xinjiang, CHINA). In order to reduce the seasonal or annual effects from the LST variations, also to avoid the rainy and cloudy weather in this area, a background mean of ten-day nighttime LST are derived using averaged MOD11A2 products from 2001 to 2012. Then the ten-day LST data from Jan 2014 to FebJanuary 2014 were differenced using the above background. Abnormal LST increase before the earthquake is quite obvious from the differential images, indicating that this method is useful in such area with high mountains and wide-area deserts. Also, in order to assess the damage to infrastructure, China's latest civilian high-resolution remote sensing satellite - GF-1 remote sensed data are applied to the affected counties in this area. The damaged infrastructures and ground surface could be easily interpreted in the fused pan-chromatic and multi-spectral images integrating both texture and spectral information.

Earthquake forecasting test for Kanto district to reduce vulnerability of urban mega earthquake disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yokoi, S.; Tsuruoka, H.; Nanjo, K.; Hirata, N.

2012-12-01

Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global project on earthquake predictability research. The final goal of this project is to search for the intrinsic predictability of the earthquake rupture process through forecast testing experiments. The Earthquake Research Institute, the University of Tokyo joined CSEP and started the Japanese testing center called as CSEP-Japan. This testing center provides an open access to researchers contributing earthquake forecast models applied to Japan. Now more than 100 earthquake forecast models were submitted on the prospective experiment. The models are separated into 4 testing classes (1 day, 3 months, 1 year and 3 years) and 3 testing regions covering an area of Japan including sea area, Japanese mainland and Kanto district. We evaluate the performance of the models in the official suite of tests defined by CSEP. The total number of experiments was implemented for approximately 300 rounds. These results provide new knowledge concerning statistical forecasting models. We started a study for constructing a 3-dimensional earthquake forecasting model for Kanto district in Japan based on CSEP experiments under the Special Project for Reducing Vulnerability for Urban Mega Earthquake Disasters. Because seismicity of the area ranges from shallower part to a depth of 80 km due to subducting Philippine Sea plate and Pacific plate, we need to study effect of depth distribution. We will develop models for forecasting based on the results of 2-D modeling. We defined the 3D - forecasting area in the Kanto region with test classes of 1 day, 3 months, 1 year and 3 years, and magnitudes from 4.0 to 9.0 as in CSEP-Japan. In the first step of the study, we will install RI10K model (Nanjo, 2011) and the HISTETAS models (Ogata, 2011) to know if those models have good performance as in the 3 months 2-D CSEP-Japan experiments in the Kanto region before the 2011 Tohoku event (Yokoi et al., in preparation). We use CSEP-Japan experiments as a starting model of non-divided column in a depth. In the presentation, we will discuss the performance of the models comparing results of the Kanto district with those obtained in all over Japan by CSEP-Japan and also add to discuss the results of the 3-month experiments after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake to understand the learning ability of the models associated with recent seismicity of the area.

Megathrust earthquakes in Japan and Chile triggered multiple volcanoes to subside

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takada, Y.; Pritchard, M. E.; Fukushima, Y.; Jay, J.; Aron, F. A.; Henderson, S.; Lara, L. E.

2012-12-01

With spaceborne interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) analysis, we found that two recent megathrust earthquakes, the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake in Japan (March 11, 2011) and the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake in Chile (February 27, 2010), have triggered unprecedented subsidence of multiple volcanoes. There are strong similarities in the characteristics of the surface deformation in Chile and Japan; (1) the maximum amount of subsidence is about 15 cm, (2) the shape of subsidence areas exhibit elliptic shape elongated in the North-South direction -- perpendicular to the principal axis of the extensional stress change, and (3) most of the subsidence was aseismic. These similarities imply that volcanic subsidence from megathrust earthquakes is a ubiquitous phenomenon. In both areas, we found that hydro-thermal reservoirs (including water, gas, and possibly magma) would play key roles in the subsidence. Further continuous monitoring is necessary to determine if the surface subsidence leads to additional volcanic unrest. For the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake, we used SAR data acquired before and after the mainshock by ALOS (PALSAR). By removing long wave-length phase trend from InSAR images, we obtained the localized subsidence signals at five active volcanoes: Mt. Akitakoma, Mt. Kurikoma region, Mt. Zao, Mt. Azuma, and Mt. Nasu. All of them belong to the volcanic front of Northeast Japan and so they are among the closest volcanoes to the earthquake. The maximum amount of subsidence reaches 15 cm at Mt. Azuma. GPS data from two volcanoes also indicate surface subsidence consistent with the satellite radar observations. Furthermore, the GPS data show that the subsidence occurred immediately after the earthquake. According to numerical modelling, the observed subsidence can be explained by the co-seismic response of fluid-filled ellipsoid with horizontal dimensions of 10-40 × 5-15 km beneath each volcano. For the 2010 Maule Earthquake, we extracted the localized volcanic subsidence in the same manner as Japan by removing the earthquake deformation signature. Most interferograms were created from ALOS data, but several were from ENVISAT and ERS-2. We find subsidence at five volcanic areas: Caldera del Atuel, Tinguiririca, Calabozos caldera, Cerro Azul, and Nevados de Chillán. All of these regions belong to the Andean Southern Volcanic Zone, and are located within the 400 km long rupture area of the Maule earthquake. In three of the five subsiding regions, there are known geothermal reservoirs. The orientation of N-S elongated subsidence areas can be explained by underlying hydrothermal and/or magmatic system and increase in the number of small cracks around those systems due to the coseismic stress disturbance. Existence of such damage zone would make water and/or gas emissions efficient, and enhanced the N-S elongated surface subsidence. Increases in stream flow at the date of Maule earthquake were observed, although the fluid contribution from the volcanic areas is not the only or necessarily the primary source.

Intensity-duration threshold of rainfall-triggered debris flows in the Wenchuan Earthquake affected area, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Xiaojun; Cui, Peng; Li, Yong; Ma, Li; Ge, Yonggang; Mahoney, William B.

2016-01-01

The Ms 8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake has greatly altered the rainfall threshold for debris flows in the affected areas. This study explores the local intensity-duration (I-D) relationship based on 252 post-earthquake debris flows. It was found that I = 5.25 D-0.76 accounts for more than 98% of the debris flow occurrences with rainfall duration between 1 and 135 h; therefore the curve defines the threshold for debris flows in the study area. This gives much lower thresholds than those proposed by the previous studies, suggesting that the earthquake has greatly decreased the thresholds in the past years. Moreover, the rainfall thresholds appear to increase annually in the period of 2008-2013, and present a logarithmic increasing tendency, indicating that the thresholds will recover in the future decades.

Seismic maps foster landmark legislation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Borcherdt, Roger D.; Brown, Robert B.; Page, Robert A.; Wentworth, Carl M.; Hendley, James W.

1995-01-01

When a powerful earthquake strikes an urban region, damage concentrates not only near the quake's source. Damage can also occur many miles from the source in areas of soft ground. In recent years, scientists have developed ways to identify and map these areas of high seismic hazard. This advance has spurred pioneering legislation to reduce earthquake losses in areas of greatest hazard.

Preliminary Study on Earthquake Surface Rupture Extraction from Uav Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, X.; Wang, X.; Ding, X.; Wu, X.; Dou, A.; Wang, S.

2018-04-01

Because of the advantages of low-cost, lightweight and photography under the cloud, UAVs have been widely used in the field of seismic geomorphology research in recent years. Earthquake surface rupture is a typical seismic tectonic geomorphology that reflects the dynamic and kinematic characteristics of crustal movement. The quick identification of earthquake surface rupture is of great significance for understanding the mechanism of earthquake occurrence, disasters distribution and scale. Using integrated differential UAV platform, series images were acquired with accuracy POS around the former urban area (Qushan town) of Beichuan County as the area stricken seriously by the 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake. Based on the multi-view 3D reconstruction technique, the high resolution DSM and DOM are obtained from differential UAV images. Through the shade-relief map and aspect map derived from DSM, the earthquake surface rupture is extracted and analyzed. The results show that the surface rupture can still be identified by using the UAV images although the time of earthquake elapse is longer, whose middle segment is characterized by vertical movement caused by compression deformation from fault planes.

Geospatial cross-correlation analysis of Oklahoma earthquakes and saltwater disposal volume 2011 - 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollyea, R.; Mohammadi, N.; Taylor, J. E.

2017-12-01

The annual earthquake rate in Oklahoma increased dramatically between 2009 and 2016, owing in large part to the rapid proliferation of salt water disposal wells associated with unconventional oil and gas recovery. This study presents a geospatial analysis of earthquake occurrence and SWD injection volume within a 68,420 km2 area in north-central Oklahoma between 2011 and 2016. The spatial co-variability of earthquake occurrence and SWD injection volume is analyzed for each year of the study by calculating the geographic centroid for both earthquake epicenter and volume-weighted well location. In addition, the spatial cross correlation between earthquake occurrence and SWD volume is quantified by calculating the cross semivariogram annually for a 9.6 km × 9.6 km (6 mi × 6 mi) grid over the study area. Results from these analyses suggest that the relationship between volume-weighted well centroids and earthquake centroids generally follow pressure diffusion space-time scaling, and the volume-weighted well centroid predicts the geographic earthquake centroid within a 1σ radius of gyration. The cross semivariogram calculations show that SWD injection volume and earthquake occurrence are spatially cross correlated between 2014 and 2016. These results also show that the strength of cross correlation decreased from 2015 to 2016; however, the cross correlation length scale remains unchanged at 125 km. This suggests that earthquake mitigation efforts have been moderately successful in decreasing the strength of cross correlation between SWD volume and earthquake occurrence near-field, but the far-field contribution of SWD injection volume to earthquake occurrence remains unaffected.

Source of the 1730 Chilean earthquake from historical records: Implications for the future tsunami hazard on the coast of Metropolitan Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvajal, M.; Cisternas, M.; Catalán, P. A.

2017-05-01

Historical records of an earthquake that occurred in 1730 affecting Metropolitan Chile provide essential clues on the source characteristics for the future earthquakes in the region. The earthquake and tsunami of 1730 have been recognized as the largest to occur in Metropolitan Chile since the beginning of written history. The earthquake destroyed buildings along >1000 km of the coast and produced a large tsunami that caused damage as far as Japan. Here its source characteristics are inferred by comparing local tsunami inundations computed from hypothetical earthquakes with varying magnitude and depth, with those inferred from historical observations. It is found that a 600-800 km long rupture involving average slip amounts of 10-14 m (Mw 9.1-9.3) best explains the observed tsunami heights and inundations. This large earthquake magnitude is supported by the 1730 tsunami heights inferred in Japan. The inundation results combined with local uplift reports suggest a southward increase of the slip depth along the rupture zone of the 1730 earthquake. While shallow slip on the area to the north of the 2010 earthquake rupture zone is required to explain the reported inundation, only deeper slip at this area can explain the coastal uplift reports. Since the later earthquakes of the region involved little or no slip at shallow depths, the near-future earthquakes on Metropolitan Chile could release the shallow slip accumulated since 1730 and thus lead to strong tsunami excitation. Moderate shaking from a shallow earthquake could delay tsunami evacuation for the most populated coastal region of Chile.

Broadband waveform inversion of moderate earthquakes in the Messina Straits, southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Amico, Sebastiano; Orecchio, Barbara; Presti, Debora; Zhu, Lupei; Herrmann, Robert B.; Neri, Giancarlo

2010-04-01

We report the first application of the Cut and Paste (CAP) method to compute earthquake focal mechanisms in the Messina Straits area by waveform inversion of Pnl and surface wave segments. This application of CAP has furnished new knowledge about low-magnitude earthquake mechanics that will be useful for improved understanding of the local geodynamics. This is possible because the CAP inversion technique can be applied to small earthquakes, for which traditional moment tensor inversion methods are not appropriate and P-onset focal mechanisms in the study area fail because of a lack of sufficient observations. We estimate the focal mechanisms of 23 earthquakes with local magnitudes in the range of 3-4 occurring in the 2004-2008 time period, and recorded by the broadband stations of the Italian National Seismic Network and the Mediterranean Very Broadband Seismographic Network (MedNet) run by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). The solutions show that normal faulting is the prevailing style of seismic deformation in the northern part of the study area while co-existence of normal faulting and strike-slip has been detected in the southern part. In the whole area of investigation the T-axes of focal mechanisms display a preferential northwest-southeast direction of extension. Combined with the findings of previous investigations, this improved database of focal mechanisms allows us to better detail the transitional area between the extensional domain related to subduction trench retreat (southern Calabria) and the compressional one associated with continental collision (western-central Sicily). The observed spatial change of seismic deformation regime offers new data to current seismotectonic and seismic hazard investigations in the area of Messina Straits where a magnitude 7.2 earthquake caused more than 60,000 casualties on 28 December 1908.

Relationship between two Solomon Islands Earthquakes in 2007 (M8.1), 2010 (M7.1), and Seismic Gap along the Subduction Zone, Revealed by ALOS/PALSAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyagi, Y.; Ozawa, T.

2010-12-01

The Solomon Islands are located in the southwest of the Pacific Ocean. The Australian, Woodlark, and Solomon Sea plates subduct toward the northeast beneath the Pacific plate. Interaction among these four plates cause complicated tectonics around the Solomon Islands, and have caused interplate earthquakes in the subduction zone (e.g. Lay and Kanamori, 1980; Xu and Schwarts, 1993). On April 1, 2007 (UTC), an M8.1 interplate earthquake occurred in the subduction zone between the Pacific Plate and the Australian Plate. This earthquake was accompanied by a large tsunami and caused considerable damage in the area. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) carried out emergency observations using the Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Rader (PALSAR) installed on Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS), and detected more than 2m of maximum displacement using differential interferometric SAR (DInSAR) technique. Miyagi et al. (2009) estimated a slip distribution of the seismic fault mainly from the PALSAR/DInSAR data and suggested that most of a seismic gap was filled by the 2007 events, but a small seismic gap connecting to an Mw7.0-sized earthquake still remained. On January 3, 2010, an M7.1 earthquake occurred in the vicinity of the remnant seismic gap. ALOS/PALSAR observed epicentral area both before and after the event, and detected crustal deformation associated with the earthquake. We inferred fault model using the PALSAR/DInSAR data and concluded that the 2010 event was the supposed thrust earthquake filling the remnant seismic gap. A distribution of coulomb failure stress change in the epicentral area after the 2007 event suggested the possibility that the 2010 event was triggered by the 2007 earthquake.

Source models of M-7 class earthquakes in the rupture area of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake by near-field tsunami modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubota, T.; Hino, R.; Inazu, D.; Saito, T.; Iinuma, T.; Suzuki, S.; Ito, Y.; Ohta, Y.; Suzuki, K.

2012-12-01

We estimated source models of small amplitude tsunami associated with M-7 class earthquakes in the rupture area of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake using near-field records of tsunami recorded by ocean bottom pressure gauges (OBPs). The largest (Mw=7.3) foreshock of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake, occurred on 9 Mar., two days before the mainshock. Tsunami associated with the foreshock was clearly recorded by seven OBPs, as well as coseismic vertical deformation of the seafloor. Assuming a planer fault along the plate boundary as a source, the OBP records were inverted for slip distribution. As a result, the most of the coseismic slip was found to be concentrated in the area of about 40 x 40 km in size and located to the north-west of the epicenter, suggesting downdip rupture propagation. Seismic moment of our tsunami waveform inversion is 1.4 x 10^20 Nm, equivalent to Mw 7.3. On 2011 July 10th, an earthquake of Mw 7.0 occurred near the hypocenter of the mainshock. Its relatively deep focus and strike-slip focal mechanism indicate that this earthquake was an intraslab earthquake. The earthquake was associated with small amplitude tsunami. By using the OBP records, we estimated a model of the initial sea-surface height distribution. Our tsunami inversion showed that a pair of uplift/subsiding eyeballs was required to explain the observed tsunami waveform. The spatial pattern of the seafloor deformation is consistent with the oblique strike-slip solution obtained by the seismic data analyses. The location and strike of the hinge line separating the uplift and subsidence zones correspond well to the linear distribution of the aftershock determined by using local OBS data (Obana et al., 2012).

Predicting the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude from Seismic Data in Israel and Its Neighboring Countries.

PubMed

Last, Mark; Rabinowitz, Nitzan; Leonard, Gideon

2016-01-01

This paper explores several data mining and time series analysis methods for predicting the magnitude of the largest seismic event in the next year based on the previously recorded seismic events in the same region. The methods are evaluated on a catalog of 9,042 earthquake events, which took place between 01/01/1983 and 31/12/2010 in the area of Israel and its neighboring countries. The data was obtained from the Geophysical Institute of Israel. Each earthquake record in the catalog is associated with one of 33 seismic regions. The data was cleaned by removing foreshocks and aftershocks. In our study, we have focused on ten most active regions, which account for more than 80% of the total number of earthquakes in the area. The goal is to predict whether the maximum earthquake magnitude in the following year will exceed the median of maximum yearly magnitudes in the same region. Since the analyzed catalog includes only 28 years of complete data, the last five annual records of each region (referring to the years 2006-2010) are kept for testing while using the previous annual records for training. The predictive features are based on the Gutenberg-Richter Ratio as well as on some new seismic indicators based on the moving averages of the number of earthquakes in each area. The new predictive features prove to be much more useful than the indicators traditionally used in the earthquake prediction literature. The most accurate result (AUC = 0.698) is reached by the Multi-Objective Info-Fuzzy Network (M-IFN) algorithm, which takes into account the association between two target variables: the number of earthquakes and the maximum earthquake magnitude during the same year.

Predicting the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude from Seismic Data in Israel and Its Neighboring Countries

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

This paper explores several data mining and time series analysis methods for predicting the magnitude of the largest seismic event in the next year based on the previously recorded seismic events in the same region. The methods are evaluated on a catalog of 9,042 earthquake events, which took place between 01/01/1983 and 31/12/2010 in the area of Israel and its neighboring countries. The data was obtained from the Geophysical Institute of Israel. Each earthquake record in the catalog is associated with one of 33 seismic regions. The data was cleaned by removing foreshocks and aftershocks. In our study, we have focused on ten most active regions, which account for more than 80% of the total number of earthquakes in the area. The goal is to predict whether the maximum earthquake magnitude in the following year will exceed the median of maximum yearly magnitudes in the same region. Since the analyzed catalog includes only 28 years of complete data, the last five annual records of each region (referring to the years 2006–2010) are kept for testing while using the previous annual records for training. The predictive features are based on the Gutenberg-Richter Ratio as well as on some new seismic indicators based on the moving averages of the number of earthquakes in each area. The new predictive features prove to be much more useful than the indicators traditionally used in the earthquake prediction literature. The most accurate result (AUC = 0.698) is reached by the Multi-Objective Info-Fuzzy Network (M-IFN) algorithm, which takes into account the association between two target variables: the number of earthquakes and the maximum earthquake magnitude during the same year. PMID:26812351

A study of earthquake-induced building detection by object oriented classification approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabuncu, Asli; Damla Uca Avci, Zehra; Sunar, Filiz

2017-04-01

Among the natural hazards, earthquakes are the most destructive disasters and cause huge loss of lives, heavily infrastructure damages and great financial losses every year all around the world. According to the statistics about the earthquakes, more than a million earthquakes occur which is equal to two earthquakes per minute in the world. Natural disasters have brought more than 780.000 deaths approximately % 60 of all mortality is due to the earthquakes after 2001. A great earthquake took place at 38.75 N 43.36 E in the eastern part of Turkey in Van Province on On October 23th, 2011. 604 people died and about 4000 buildings seriously damaged and collapsed after this earthquake. In recent years, the use of object oriented classification approach based on different object features, such as spectral, textural, shape and spatial information, has gained importance and became widespread for the classification of high-resolution satellite images and orthophotos. The motivation of this study is to detect the collapsed buildings and debris areas after the earthquake by using very high-resolution satellite images and orthophotos with the object oriented classification and also see how well remote sensing technology was carried out in determining the collapsed buildings. In this study, two different land surfaces were selected as homogenous and heterogeneous case study areas. In the first step of application, multi-resolution segmentation was applied and optimum parameters were selected to obtain the objects in each area after testing different color/shape and compactness/smoothness values. In the next step, two different classification approaches, namely "supervised" and "unsupervised" approaches were applied and their classification performances were compared. Object-based Image Analysis (OBIA) was performed using e-Cognition software.

Living with wildfire in Boulder County, Colorado, 2007

Treesearch

Patricia A. Champ; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Nicholas Flores

2011-01-01

The devastating impact of wildfire on residents living in fire prone areas has become an all too common media story in recent years. While significant efforts have been made to inform residents in fire prone areas of the risk, it is not clear to what extent property owners are taking action to reduce risk. Likewise, we know little about what factors are related to...

Living with wildfire in Larimer County, Colorado, 2007

Treesearch

Patricia A. Champ; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Nicholas Flores

2011-01-01

The devastating impact of wildfire on residents living in fire prone areas has become an all too common media story in recent years. While significant efforts have been made to inform residents in fire prone areas of the risk, it is not clear to what extent property owners are taking action to reduce risk. Likewise, we know little about what factors are related to...

The application of the geography census data in seismic hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Shen; Ying, Zhang

2017-04-01

Limited by basic data timeliness to earthquake emergency database in Sichuan province, after the earthquake disaster assessment results and the actual damage there is a certain gap. In 2015, Sichuan completed the province census for the first time which including topography, traffic, vegetation coverage, water area, desert and bare ground, traffic network, the census residents and facilities, geographical unit, geological hazard as well as the Lushan earthquake-stricken area's town planning construction and ecological environment restoration. On this basis, combining with the existing achievements of basic geographic information data and high resolution image data, supplemented by remote sensing image interpretation and geological survey, Carried out distribution and change situation of statistical analysis and information extraction for earthquake disaster hazard-affected body elements such as surface coverage, roads, structures infrastructure in Lushan county before 2013 after 2015. At the same time, achieved the transformation and updating from geographical conditions census data to earthquake emergency basic data through research their data type, structure and relationship. Finally, based on multi-source disaster information including hazard-affected body changed data and Lushan 7.0 magnitude earthquake CORS network coseismal displacement field, etc. obtaining intensity control points through information fusion. Then completed the seismic influence field correction and assessed earthquake disaster again through Sichuan earthquake relief headquarters technology platform. Compared the new assessment result，original assessment result and actual earthquake disaster loss which shows that the revised evaluation result is more close to the actual earthquake disaster loss. In the future can realize geographical conditions census data to earthquake emergency basic data's normalized updates, ensure the timeliness to earthquake emergency database meanwhile improve the accuracy of assessment of earthquake disaster constantly.

Putting down roots in earthquake country-Your handbook for earthquakes in the Central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Contributors: Dart, Richard; McCarthy, Jill; McCallister, Natasha; Williams, Robert A.

2011-01-01

This handbook provides information to residents of the Central United States about the threat of earthquakes in that area, particularly along the New Madrid seismic zone, and explains how to prepare for, survive, and recover from such events. It explains the need for concern about earthquakes for those residents and describes what one can expect during and after an earthquake. Much is known about the threat of earthquakes in the Central United States, including where they are likely to occur and what can be done to reduce losses from future earthquakes, but not enough has been done to prepare for future earthquakes. The handbook describes such preparations that can be taken by individual residents before an earthquake to be safe and protect property.

Insight From the Statistics of Nothing: Estimating Limits of Change Detection Using Inferred No-Change Areas in DEM Difference Maps and Application to Landslide Hazard Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haneberg, W. C.

2017-12-01

Remote characterization of new landslides or areas of ongoing movement using differences in high resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) created through time, for example before and after major rains or earthquakes, is an attractive proposition. In the case of large catastrophic landslides, changes may be apparent enough that simple subtraction suffices. In other cases, statistical noise can obscure landslide signatures and place practical limits on detection. In ideal cases on land, GPS surveys of representative areas at the time of DEM creation can quantify the inherent errors. In less-than-ideal terrestrial cases and virtually all submarine cases, it may be impractical or impossible to independently estimate the DEM errors. Examining DEM difference statistics for areas reasonably inferred to have no change, however, can provide insight into the limits of detectability. Data from inferred no-change areas of airborne LiDAR DEM difference maps of the 2014 Oso, Washington landslide and landslide-prone colluvium slopes along the Ohio River valley in northern Kentucky, show that DEM difference maps can have non-zero mean and slope dependent error components consistent with published studies of DEM errors. Statistical thresholds derived from DEM difference error and slope data can help to distinguish between DEM differences that are likely real—and which may indicate landsliding—from those that are likely spurious or irrelevant. This presentation describes and compares two different approaches, one based upon a heuristic assumption about the proportion of the study area likely covered by new landslides and another based upon the amount of change necessary to ensure difference at a specified level of probability.

The 2012 Emilia seismic sequence (Northern Italy): Imaging the thrust fault system by accurate aftershock location

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Govoni, Aladino; Marchetti, Alessandro; De Gori, Pasquale; Di Bona, Massimo; Lucente, Francesco Pio; Improta, Luigi; Chiarabba, Claudio; Nardi, Anna; Margheriti, Lucia; Agostinetti, Nicola Piana; Di Giovambattista, Rita; Latorre, Diana; Anselmi, Mario; Ciaccio, Maria Grazia; Moretti, Milena; Castellano, Corrado; Piccinini, Davide

2014-05-01

Starting from late May 2012, the Emilia region (Northern Italy) was severely shaken by an intense seismic sequence, originated from a ML 5.9 earthquake on May 20th, at a hypocentral depth of 6.3 km, with thrust-type focal mechanism. In the following days, the seismic rate remained high, counting 50 ML ≥ 2.0 earthquakes a day, on average. Seismicity spreads along a 30 km east-west elongated area, in the Po river alluvial plain, in the nearby of the cities Ferrara and Modena. Nine days after the first shock, another destructive thrust-type earthquake (ML 5.8) hit the area to the west, causing further damage and fatalities. Aftershocks following this second destructive event extended along the same east-westerly trend for further 20 km to the west, thus illuminating an area of about 50 km in length, on the whole. After the first shock struck, on May 20th, a dense network of temporary seismic stations, in addition to the permanent ones, was deployed in the meizoseismal area, leading to a sensible improvement of the earthquake monitoring capability there. A combined dataset, including three-component seismic waveforms recorded by both permanent and temporary stations, has been analyzed in order to obtain an appropriate 1-D velocity model for earthquake location in the study area. Here we describe the main seismological characteristics of this seismic sequence and, relying on refined earthquakes location, we make inferences on the geometry of the thrust system responsible for the two strongest shocks.

Geophysical investigation of liquefaction and surface ruptures at selected sites in Oklahoma post the 2016 Mw 5.8 Pawnee, OK earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolawole, F.; Ismail, A. M.; Pickens, C. M.; Beckendorff, D.; Mayle, M. V.; Goussi, J. F.; Nyalugwe, V.; Aghayan, A.; Tim, S.; Atekwana, E. A.

2016-12-01

To date, the Mw 5.8 Pawnee, Oklahoma, earthquake on September 3, 2016 produced the largest moment release in the central and eastern United States, linked to saline waste water injection into the underlying formations. This earthquake occurred in a region of complex fault interactions, and typical of most of the earthquake activity in Oklahoma the earthquake ruptured a previously unknown left-lateral strike-slip fault striking 109°. Moreover, unlike the 2011 Mw 5.7 Prague, Oklahoma earthquake, the Pawnee earthquake produced surface deformation including fractures and liquefaction features. In this study, we use high resolution electrical resistivity, ground penetrating radar (GPR) and surface fracture mapping to image the zones of surface disruption. Our objective was to report some of the near-surface deformations that are associated with the recent earthquake and compare them with deep structures. We selected two sites for this study. We observed linear fractures and liquefaction at the first site which is 5 km away from the earthquake epicenter, while the second site, 7.5 km away from the epicenter, showed mostly curvilinear fractures. The resistivity and GPR sections showed indication of saturated sediments at about 2 m - 5 m below ground surface and settlement-sag structure within the liquefaction dominated area, and less saturated sediments in areas dominated by fractures only. GPS mapping of fractures at the first site revealed a pattern of en-echelon fractures oriented 93°-116°, sub-parallel to the orientation of the slip direction of the earthquake, while the fractures at the second site trend along the bank of a river meander. We infer that the liquefaction was enhanced by the occurrence of loose, wet, fluvial deposits of the Arkansas River flood plain and adequate near-surface pore pressure at the liquefaction dominated areas. Our results suggest the greater influence of surface morphological heterogeneity on the ruptures farther away from the epicenter, while the relationship between the deep structures, displacement kinematics and the linear fractures closer to the epicenter are unclear. We conclude that high resolution geophysical imaging can be used as a rapid response tool for evaluating areas susceptible to failure during earthquakes and can help improve hazard mitigation measures.

Revisiting the November 27, 1945 Makran (Mw=8.2) interplate earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarifi, Z.; Raeesi, M.

2012-04-01

Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) in southern Iran and southwestern Pakistan is a zone of convergence, where the remnant oceanic crust of Arabian plate is subducting beneath the Eurasian plate with a rate of less than 30 mm/yr. The November 27, 1945 earthquake (Mw=8.2) in eastern section of Makran followed by a tsunami, at some points 15 meters high. More than 4000 victims and widespread devastation along the coastal area of Pakistan, Iran, Oman and India are reported for this earthquake. We have collected the old seismograms of the 1945 earthquake and its largest following earthquake (August 5, 1947, Mw=7.3) from a number of stations around the globe. Using ISS data, we relocated these two events. We used the teleseismic body-waveform inversion code of Kikuchi and Kanamori to determine the slip distribution of these two earthquakes for the first time. The results show that the extent of rupture of the 1945 earthquake is larger than what previously had been approximated in other studies. The slip distribution suggests two distinct sets of asperities with different behavior in the west close to Pasni and in the east close to Ormara. The highest slip was obtained for an area between these two cities which shows geological evidence of rapid uplift. To associate this behavior with the structure of slab interface we studied the TPGA (Trench Parallel Free-air Gravity Anomaly) and TPBA (Trench Parallel Bouguer Anomaly) in MSZ. The results of TPGA does not show the expected phenomenon, which is the correlation of asperities with the area of highly negative TPGA. However, TPBA can make correlation between the observed slip distribution and the structure of slab interface. Using the topography and gravity profiles perpendicular to trench and along the MSZ, we could observe the segmentation in the slab interface. This confirms that we barely expect that the whole interface releases energy in one single megathrust earthquake. Current seismicity in MSZ, although sparse, can fairly good confirm signals of a mature cycle of earthquake to the west of the rupture area of the 1945 event. These evidences include distribution of extensional earthquakes at intermediate depths and compressional events in the overriding plate. Revisiting the 1945 earthquake can provide lessons for understanding the behavior of MSZ and its future large events.

OMG Earthquake! Can Twitter improve earthquake response?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Earle, P. S.; Guy, M.; Ostrum, C.; Horvath, S.; Buckmaster, R. A.

2009-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public, text messages, can augment its earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. The goal is to gather near real-time, earthquake-related messages (tweets) and provide geo-located earthquake detections and rough maps of the corresponding felt areas. Twitter and other social Internet technologies are providing the general public with anecdotal earthquake hazard information before scientific information has been published from authoritative sources. People local to an event often publish information within seconds via these technologies. In contrast, depending on the location of the earthquake, scientific alerts take between 2 to 20 minutes. Examining the tweets following the March 30, 2009, M4.3 Morgan Hill earthquake shows it is possible (in some cases) to rapidly detect and map the felt area of an earthquake using Twitter responses. Within a minute of the earthquake, the frequency of “earthquake” tweets rose above the background level of less than 1 per hour to about 150 per minute. Using the tweets submitted in the first minute, a rough map of the felt area can be obtained by plotting the tweet locations. Mapping the tweets from the first six minutes shows observations extending from Monterey to Sacramento, similar to the perceived shaking region mapped by the USGS “Did You Feel It” system. The tweets submitted after the earthquake also provided (very) short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking. Accurately assessing the potential and robustness of a Twitter-based system is difficult because only tweets spanning the previous seven days can be searched, making a historical study impossible. We have, however, been archiving tweets for several months, and it is clear that significant limitations do exist. The main drawback is the lack of quantitative information such as epicenter, magnitude, and strong-motion recordings. Without quantitative data, prioritization of response measures, including building and infrastructure inspection, are not possible. The main advantage of Twitter is speed, especially in sparsely instrumented areas. A Twitter based system potentially could provide a quick notification that there was a possible event and that seismographically derived information will follow. If you are interested in learning more, follow @USGSted on Twitter.

The Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault System: Learning from the Past to Forecast the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, D. P.; Lienkaemper, J. J.; Hecker, S.

2007-12-01

The San Francisco Bay area is located within the Pacific-North American plate boundary. As a result, the region has the highest density of active faults per square kilometer of any urban center in the US. Between the Farallon Islands and Livermore, the faults of the San Andreas fault system are slipping at a rate of about 40 mm/yr. Approximately 25 percent of this rate is accommodated by the Hayward fault and its continuation to the north, the Rodgers Creek fault. The Hayward fault extends 88 km from Warm Springs on the south into San Pablo Bay on the north, traversing the most heavily urbanized part of the Bay Area. The Rodgers Creek fault extends another 63 km, passing through Santa Rosa and ending south of Healdsburg. Geologic, seismologic, and geodetic studies during the past ten years have significantly increased our knowledge of this system. In particular, paleoseismic studies of the timing of past earthquakes have provided critical new information for improving our understanding of how these faults may work in time and space, and for estimating the probability of future earthquakes. The most spectacular result is an 11-earthquake record on the southern Hayward fault that extends back to A.D. 170. It suggests an average time interval between large earthquakes of 170 years for this period, with a shorter interval of 140 years for the five most recent earthquakes. Paleoseismic investigations have also shown that prior to the most recent large earthquake on the southern Hayward fault in 1868, large earthquakes occurred on the southern Hayward fault between 1658 and1786, on the northern Hayward fault between 1640 and 1776, and on the Rodgers Creek fault between 1690 and 1776. These could have been three separate earthquakes. However, the overlapping radiocarbon dates for these paleoearthquakes allow the possibility that these faults may have ruptured together in several different combinations: a combined southern and northern Hayward fault earthquake, a Rodgers Creek-northern Hayward fault earthquake, or a rupture of all three fault sections. Each of these rupture combinations would produce a magnitude larger than 1868 (M~6.9). In 2003, the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities released a new earthquake forecast for the Bay Area. Using the earthquake timing data and alternative fault rupture models, the Working Group estimated a 27 percent likelihood of a M?6.7 earthquake along the Hayward-Rodgers Creek fault zone by the year 2031. This is this highest probability of any individual fault system in the Bay Area. New paleoseismic data will allow updating of this forecast.

Imaging inhomogeneous seismic velocity structure in and around the fault plane of the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi, Japan, Nairiku Earthquake (M7.2) - spatial variation in depth of seismic-aseismic transition and possible high-T/overpressurized fluid distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okada, T.; Umino, N.; Hasegawa, A.; 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake, G. O.

2008-12-01

A large shallow earthquake (named the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake) with a JMA magnitude of 7.2 occurred in the central part of NE Japan on June 14, 2008. Focal area of the present earthquake is located in the Tohoku backbone range strain concentration zone (Miura et al., 2004) along the volcanic front. Just after the occurrence of this earthquake, Japanese universities (Hokkaido, Hirosaki, Tohoku, Tokyo, Nagoya, Kyoto, Kochi, Kyusyu, Kagoshima) and NIED deployed a dense aftershock observation network in and around the focal area. Total number of temporal stations is 128. Using data from this dense aftershock observation and other temporary and routinely operated stations, we estimate hypocenter distribution and seismic velocity structure of the crust in and around the focal area of the present earthquake. We determined three-dimensional seismic velocity structure and relocated hypocenters simultaneously using the double- difference tomography method (Zhang and Thurber, 2003). Spatial extent of the aftershock area is about 45 km (NNE-SSW) by 15 km (WNW-ESE). Most of aftershocks are aligned in westward dipping. Shallower extensions of aftershock alignments seem to be located nearly at the coseismic surface deformations, which are along a geological fault, and the surface trace of the active fault (Detana fault). Note that some aftershocks seem to occur off the fault plane of the mainshock. The focal area of the present earthquake is located at a high Vs area. In the lower crust, we found some distinct low-Vs areas. These low velocity zones are located just beneath the strain concentration zones / seismic belts along the backbone range and in the northern Miyagi region. Focal area of the present earthquake is also located just above the low velocity zone in the lower crust. Beneath active volcanoes, these low velocity zones become more distinct and shallower, and aftershocks tend to occur shallower and not occur within such low-velocity zones. These low-velocity zones in the lower crust might be caused by high temperature upwelling flow of fluid originating from the mantle wedge. The present observation supports the hypothesis by Hasegawa et al. (2005) that anelastic deformation of the crust weakened by fluid forms the strain concentration zone and promotes the occurrence of large shallow inland earthquakes. We used data from JMA, Hi-net/NIED, NAO-Mizusawa and TITECH. We also used data from JNES. This work was conducted under the support of Grant-in-Aid for Special Purposes, MEXT, Japan. We thank Prof. Cliff Thurber and Dr. Haijiang Zhang for providing their programs and valuable discussions.

8 March 2010 Elazığ-Kovancilar (Turkey) Earthquake: observations on ground motions and building damage

USGS Publications Warehouse

Akkar, Sinan; Aldemir, A.; Askan, A.; Bakir, S.; Canbay, E.; Demirel, I.O.; Erberik, M.A.; Gulerce, Z.; Gulkan, Polat; Kalkan, Erol; Prakash, S.; Sandikkaya, M.A.; Sevilgen, V.; Ugurhan, B.; Yenier, E.

2011-01-01

An earthquake of MW = 6.1 occurred in the Elazığ region of eastern Turkey on 8 March 2010 at 02:32:34 UTC. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) reported the epicenter of the earthquake as 38.873°N-39.981°E with a focal depth of 12 km. Forty-two people lost their lives and 137 were injured during the event. The earthquake was reported to be on the left-lateral strike-slip east Anatolian fault (EAF), which is one of the two major active fault systems in Turkey. Teams from the Earthquake Engineering Research Center of the Middle East Technical University (EERC-METU) visited the earthquake area in the aftermath of the mainshock. Their reconnaissance observations were combined with interpretations of recorded ground motions for completeness. This article summarizes observations on building and ground damage in the area and provides a discussion of the recorded motions. No significant observations in terms of geotechnical engineering were made.

Individual differences in posterior cortical volume correlate with proneness to pride and gratitude

PubMed Central

Zahn, Roland; Garrido, Griselda; Moll, Jorge

2014-01-01

Proneness to specific moral sentiments (e.g. pride, gratitude, guilt, indignation) has been linked with individual variations in functional MRI (fMRI) response within anterior brain regions whose lesion leads to inappropriate behaviour. However, the role of structural anatomical differences in rendering individuals prone to particular moral sentiments relative to others is unknown. Here, we investigated grey matter volumes (VBM8) and proneness to specific moral sentiments on a well-controlled experimental task in healthy individuals. Individuals with smaller cuneus, and precuneus volumes were more pride-prone, whereas those with larger right inferior temporal volumes experienced gratitude more readily. Although the primary analysis detected no associations with guilt- or indignation-proneness, subgenual cingulate fMRI responses to guilt were negatively correlated with grey matter volumes in the left superior temporal sulcus and anterior dorsolateral prefrontal cortices (right >left). This shows that individual variations in functional activations within critical areas for moral sentiments were not due to grey matter volume differences in the same areas. Grey matter volume differences between healthy individuals may nevertheless play an important role by affecting posterior cortical brain systems that are non-critical but supportive for the experience of specific moral sentiments. This may be of particular relevance when their experience depends on visuo-spatial elaboration. PMID:24106333

Spatial distribution of landslides triggered from the 2007 Niigata Chuetsu–Oki Japan Earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collins, Brian D.; Kayen, Robert E.; Tanaka, Yasuo

2012-01-01

Understanding the spatial distribution of earthquake-induced landslides from specific earthquakes provides an opportunity to recognize what to expect from future events. The July 16, 2007 Mw 6.6 (MJMA 6.8) Niigata Chuetsu–Oki Japan earthquake triggered hundreds of landslides in the area surrounding the coastal city of Kashiwazaki and provides one such opportunity to evaluate the impacts of an offshore, magnitude 6 + earthquake on a steep coastal region. As part of a larger effort to document all forms of geotechnical damage from this earthquake, we performed landslide inventory mapping throughout the epicentral area and analyzed the resulting data for spatial, seismic-motion, and geologic correlations to describe the pattern of landsliding. Coupled with examination of a third-party, aerial-photo-based landslide inventory, our analyses reveal several areas of high landslide concentration that are not readily explained by either traditional epicentral and fault–plane-distance metrics or by recorded and inferred ground-motions. Whereas average landslide concentrations averaged less than 1 landslide per square kilometer (LS/km2), some areas reached up to 2 LS/km2 in the Nishiyama Hills to the northeast of Kashiwazaki and between 2 and 11 LS/km2 in coastal areas to the north and south of the city. Correlation with seismometer-based and monument overturning back-calculated ground motions suggests that a minimum peak ground acceleration (PGA) of approximately 0.2 g was necessary for landsliding throughout the region, but does not explain the subregional areas of high landslide concentration. However, analysis of topographic slope and the distribution of generally weak, dip-slope, geologic units does sufficiently explain why, on a sub-regional scale, high landslide concentrations occurred where they did. These include: (1) an inland region of steep, dip-slope, anticlinal sedimentary strata with associated fold belt compression and uplift of the anticline and (2) coastal areas with generally weaker, weathered outcrop lithology and steeper slopes resulting from active marine and terrestrial cliff processes. The results offer lessons for understanding the effects of earthquakes on both regional and subregional scales with regard to the spatial distribution of landsliding.

Measuring the size of an earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spence, W.

1977-01-01

Earthquakes occur in a broad range of sizes. A rock burst in an Idaho silver mine may involve the fracture of 1 meter of rock; the 1965 Rat island earthquake in the Aleutian arc involved a 650-kilometer lenght of Earth's crust. Earthquakes can be even smaller and even larger. if an earthquake is felt or causes perceptible surface damage, then its intesnity of shaking can be subjectively estimated. But many large earthquakes occur in oceanic area or at great focal depths. These are either simply not felt or their felt pattern does not really indicate their true size. 

Evidence of uplift near Charleston, South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rhea, S.

1989-01-01

In spite of extensive research, the causal structure of the 1886 magnitude 7 earthquake near Charleston, South Carolina, has not been identified. In this study I analyzed digital surface topography and river morphology in light of earlier studies using seismic reflection, seismic refraction, earthquake seismology, and gravity and magnetic surveys. This analysis revealed an area approximately 400 km2 northwest of Charleston that may have been repeatedly uplifted by earthquakes. Geologic and seismic reflection data confirm alteration of formations at depth. Deformation of the surface is supported by observations on aerial and LANDSAT photographs. Therefore, the structure on which the 1886 earthquake occurred may be within the uplifted area defined in this report. -Author

Wine: the increasing risk of a highly vulnerable industry globally to natural disasters and climate change (NH Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniell, James E.; Daniell, Trevor M.; Daniell, Katherine A.; Wenzel, Friedemann; Schäfer, Andreas M.; Kunz, Michael; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Khazai, Bijan; Girard, Trevor; Burford, Robert

2017-04-01

Globally, well over 10 trillion in economic losses and over 10 million deaths can be attributed directly to natural disaster events from floods, earthquakes, storms, volcanoes and climatic effects historically (CATDAT - Daniell et al., 2016). When looking at the most vulnerable industries to natural disasters for each dollar invested the wine industry rates very highly, thus showing the risky and vulnerable nature of the wine business. Some effects of climate change will be shifting climates so that new grape growing areas are discovered and some traditional locations will require a change of grape variety to be planted, or will unsatisfactory for quality grape production. As new grape types are developed, some other grape types will become less viable leading to a global shift relative to the current state of the industry. The wine industry has been shown to have major losses via sudden shocks such as earthquakes in Chile (2010), Christchurch (2011) and Napa (2014) and hail through Burgundy (2012-2014). Wineries are often prone to other major disasters such as flood, storms, frost, fire or disease causing structural failure of assets, and significant production losses. Natural and man-made disasters play a key role in wine industry losses, and the variability of seasonal shifts and sudden natural shocks can often play a major role in the lifecycle and indeed the lifetime of wineries. Lessons learnt from winery disasters and climate impacts in Australia, Chile, New Zealand and USA are used as well as a comparison with those in Europe and other vulnerable centralised industries, such as cheese in Italy (2012 earthquake). For various natural disasters the structural engineering issues associated with wineries are examined with respect to infrastructure such as elevated steel tanks, as well as the importance of planning for earthquakes. The potential risk mitigation solutions are often simple to implement and are cost-effective in reducing significantly the risk potential of wineries. A risk index is produced for comparing wine regions and wineries globally by assessing the comparative risk of loss of grapes and production as well as business interruption due to various natural disasters and climate change based on stochastic and historic hazard models, as well as semi-empirical vulnerability models. Earthquake, flood, storm, climatic, hurricane and fire models are investigated. This index is of use for: wineries wanting to reduce their potential losses, to create sustainable infrastructure or to know their risks; insurance companies wanting to insure wineries; governments concerned about the loss of industry and the potential for employment loss; and simply those people worried about having a glass of their favourite wine in a few years time. Daniell, J.E., Wenzel, F., Schaefer, A.M. (2016) The economic costs of natural disasters globally from 1900-2015: historical and normalised floods, storms, earthquakes, volcanoes, bushfires, drought and other disasters, Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 18, EGU2016-1899.

Facts about the Eastern Japan Great Earthquake of March 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moriyama, T.

2011-12-01

The 2011 great earthquake was a magnitude 9.0 Mw undersea megathrust earthquake off the coast of Japan that occurred early morning UTC on Friday, 11 March 2011, with the epicenter approximately 70 kilometres east of the Oshika Peninsula of Tohoku and the hypocenter at an underwater depth of approximately 32 km. It was the most powerful known earthquake to have hit Japan, and one of the five most powerful earthquakes in the world overall since modern record keeping began in 1900. The earthquake triggered extremely destructive tsunami waves of up to 38.9 metres that struck Tohoku Japan, in some cases traveling up to 10 km inland. In addition to loss of life and destruction of infrastructure, the tsunami caused a number of nuclear accidents, primarily the ongoing level 7 meltdowns at three reactors in the Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant complex, and the associated evacuation zones affecting hundreds of thousands of residents. The Japanese National Police Agency has confirmed 1,5457 deaths, 5,389 injured, and 7,676 people missing across eighteen prefectures, as well as over 125,000 buildings damaged or destroyed. JAXA carried out ALOS emergency observation just after the earthquake occured, and acquired more than 400 scenes over the disaster area. The coseismic interferogram by InSAR analysis cleary showing the epicenter of the earthquake and land surface deformation over Tohoku area. By comparison of before and after satellite images, the large scale damaged area by tunami are extracted. These images and data can access via JAXA website and also GEO Tohoku oki event supersite website.

2010 Chile Earthquake Aftershock Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barientos, Sergio

2010-05-01

The Mw=8.8 earthquake off the coast of Chile on 27 February 2010 is the 5th largest megathrust earthquake ever to be recorded and provides an unprecedented opportunity to advance our understanding of megathrust earthquakes and associated phenomena. The 2010 Chile earthquake ruptured the Concepcion-Constitucion segment of the Nazca/South America plate boundary, south of the Central Chile region and triggered a tsunami along the coast. Following the 2010 earthquake, a very energetic aftershock sequence is being observed in an area that is 600 km along strike from Valparaiso to 150 km south of Concepcion. Within the first three weeks there were over 260 aftershocks with magnitude 5.0 or greater and 18 with magnitude 6.0 or greater (NEIC, USGS). The Concepcion-Constitucion segment lies immediately north of the rupture zone associated with the great magnitude 9.5 Chile earthquake, and south of the 1906 and the 1985 Valparaiso earthquakes. The last great subduction earthquake in the region dates back to the February 1835 event described by Darwin (1871). Since 1835, part of the region was affected in the north by the Talca earthquake in December 1928, interpreted as a shallow dipping thrust event, and by the Chillan earthquake (Mw 7.9, January 1939), a slab-pull intermediate depth earthquake. For the last 30 years, geodetic studies in this area were consistent with a fully coupled elastic loading of the subduction interface at depth; this led to identify the area as a mature seismic gap with potential for an earthquake of magnitude of the order 8.5 or several earthquakes of lesser magnitude. What was less expected was the partial rupturing of the 1985 segment toward north. Today, the 2010 earthquake raises some disturbing questions: Why and how the rupture terminated where it did at the northern end? How did the 2010 earthquake load the adjacent segment to the north and did the 1985 earthquake only partially ruptured the plate interface leaving loaded asperities since 1906? Since the number of M>7.0 aftershocks has been low, does the distribution of large-magnitude aftershocks differ from previous events of this size? What is the origin of the extensional-type aftershocks at shallow depths within the upper plate? The international seismological community (France, Germany, U.K., U.S.A.) in collaboration with the Chilean seismological community responded with a total of 140 portable seismic stations to deploy in order to record aftershocks. This combined with the Chilean permanent seismic network, in the area results in 180 stations now in operation recording continuous at 100 cps. The seismic equipment is a mix of accelerometers, short -period and broadband seismic sensors deployed along the entire length of the aftershock zone that will record the aftershock sequence for three to six months. The collected seismic data will be merged and archived to produce an international data set open to the entire seismological community immediately after archiving. Each international group will submit their data as soon as possible in standard (mini seed) format with accompanying meta data to the IRIS DMC where the data will be merged into a combined data set and available to individuals and other data centers. This will be by far the best-recorded aftershock sequence of a large megathrust earthquake. This outstanding international collaboration will provide an open data set for this important earthquake as well as provide a model for future aftershock deployments around the world.

Three dimensional images of geothermal systems: local earthquake P-wave velocity tomography at the Hengill and Krafla geothermal areas, Iceland, and The Geysers, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Julian, B.R.; Prisk, A.; Foulger, G.R.; Evans, J.R.; ,

1993-01-01

Local earthquake tomography - the use of earthquake signals to form a 3-dimensional structural image - is now a mature geophysical analysis method, particularly suited to the study of geothermal reservoirs, which are often seismically active and severely laterally inhomogeneous. Studies have been conducted of the Hengill (Iceland), Krafla (Iceland) and The Geysers (California) geothermal areas. All three systems are exploited for electricity and/or heat production, and all are highly seismically active. Tomographic studies of volumes a few km in dimension were conducted for each area using the method of Thurber (1983).

Prediction of the area affected by earthquake-induced landsliding based on seismological parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marc, Odin; Meunier, Patrick; Hovius, Niels

2017-07-01

We present an analytical, seismologically consistent expression for the surface area of the region within which most landslides triggered by an earthquake are located (landslide distribution area). This expression is based on scaling laws relating seismic moment, source depth, and focal mechanism with ground shaking and fault rupture length and assumes a globally constant threshold of acceleration for onset of systematic mass wasting. The seismological assumptions are identical to those recently used to propose a seismologically consistent expression for the total volume and area of landslides triggered by an earthquake. To test the accuracy of the model we gathered geophysical information and estimates of the landslide distribution area for 83 earthquakes. To reduce uncertainties and inconsistencies in the estimation of the landslide distribution area, we propose an objective definition based on the shortest distance from the seismic wave emission line containing 95 % of the total landslide area. Without any empirical calibration the model explains 56 % of the variance in our dataset, and predicts 35 to 49 out of 83 cases within a factor of 2, depending on how we account for uncertainties on the seismic source depth. For most cases with comprehensive landslide inventories we show that our prediction compares well with the smallest region around the fault containing 95 % of the total landslide area. Aspects ignored by the model that could explain the residuals include local variations of the threshold of acceleration and processes modulating the surface ground shaking, such as the distribution of seismic energy release on the fault plane, the dynamic stress drop, and rupture directivity. Nevertheless, its simplicity and first-order accuracy suggest that the model can yield plausible and useful estimates of the landslide distribution area in near-real time, with earthquake parameters issued by standard detection routines.