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Sample records for earthquake recurrence rates

  1. The Nazca-South American convergence rate and the recurrence of the great 1960 Chilean earthquake

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stein, S.; Engeln, J. F.; Demets, C.; Gordon, R. G.; Woods, D.

    1986-01-01

    The seismic slip rate along the Chile Trench estimated from the slip in the great 1960 earthquake and the recurrence history of major earthquakes has been interpreted as consistent with the subduction rate of the Nazca plate beneath South America. The convergence rate, estimated from global relative plate motion models, depends significantly on closure of the Nazca - Antarctica - South America circuit. NUVEL-1, a new plate motion model which incorporates recently determined spreading rates on the Chile Rise, shows that the average convergence rate over the last three million years is slower than previously estimated. If this time-averaged convergence rate provides an appropriate upper bound for the seismic slip rate, either the characteristic Chilean subduction earthquake is smaller than the 1960 event, the average recurrence interval is greater than observed in the last 400 years, or both. These observations bear out the nonuniformity of plate motions on various time scales, the variability in characteristic subduction zone earthquake size, and the limitations of recurrence time estimates.

  2. Earthquakes: Recurrence and Interoccurrence Times

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abaimov, S. G.; Turcotte, D. L.; Shcherbakov, R.; Rundle, J. B.; Yakovlev, G.; Goltz, C.; Newman, W. I.

    2008-04-01

    The purpose of this paper is to discuss the statistical distributions of recurrence times of earthquakes. Recurrence times are the time intervals between successive earthquakes at a specified location on a specified fault. Although a number of statistical distributions have been proposed for recurrence times, we argue in favor of the Weibull distribution. The Weibull distribution is the only distribution that has a scale-invariant hazard function. We consider three sets of characteristic earthquakes on the San Andreas fault: (1) The Parkfield earthquakes, (2) the sequence of earthquakes identified by paleoseismic studies at the Wrightwood site, and (3) an example of a sequence of micro-repeating earthquakes at a site near San Juan Bautista. In each case we make a comparison with the applicable Weibull distribution. The number of earthquakes in each of these sequences is too small to make definitive conclusions. To overcome this difficulty we consider a sequence of earthquakes obtained from a one million year “Virtual California” simulation of San Andreas earthquakes. Very good agreement with a Weibull distribution is found. We also obtain recurrence statistics for two other model studies. The first is a modified forest-fire model and the second is a slider-block model. In both cases good agreements with Weibull distributions are obtained. Our conclusion is that the Weibull distribution is the preferred distribution for estimating the risk of future earthquakes on the San Andreas fault and elsewhere.

  3. Slip rate and earthquake recurrence along the central Septentrional fault, North American-Caribbean plate boundary, Dominican Republic

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Prentice, C.S.; Mann, P.; Pena, L.R.; Burr, G.

    2003-01-01

    The Septentrional fault zone (SFZ) is the major North American-Caribbean, strike-slip, plate boundary fault at the longitude of eastern Hispaniola. The SFZ traverses the densely populated Cibao Valley of the Dominican Republic, forming a prominent scarp in alluvium. Our studies at four sites along the central SFZ are aimed at quantifying the late Quaternary behavior of this structure to better understand the seismic hazard it represents for the northeastern Caribbean. Our investigations of excavations at sites near Rio Cenovi show that the most recent ground-rupturing earthquake along this fault in the north central Dominican Republic occurred between A.D. 1040 and A.D. 1230, and involved a minimum of ???4 m of left-lateral slip and 2.3 m of normal dip slip at that site. Our studies of offset stream terraces at two locations, Rio Juan Lopez and Rio Licey, provide late Holocene slip rate estimates of 6-9 mm/yr and a maximum of 11-12 mm/yr, respectively, across the Septentrional fault. Combining these results gives a best estimate of 6-12 mm/yr for the slip rate across the SFZ. Three excavations, two near Tenares and one at the Rio Licey site, yielded evidence for the occurrence of earlier prehistoric earthquakes. Dates of strata associated with the penultimate event suggest that it occurred post-A.D. 30, giving a recurrence interval of 800-1200 years. These studies indicate that the SFZ has likely accumulated elastic strain sufficient to generate a major earthquake during the more than 800 years since it last slipped and should be considered likely to produce a destructive future earthquake.

  4. Laboratory constraints on models of earthquake recurrence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Beeler, Nicholas M.; Tullis, Terry; Junger, Jenni; Kilgore, Brian D.; Goldsby, David L.

    2014-01-01

    In this study, rock friction ‘stick-slip’ experiments are used to develop constraints on models of earthquake recurrence. Constant-rate loading of bare rock surfaces in high quality experiments produces stick-slip recurrence that is periodic at least to second order. When the loading rate is varied, recurrence is approximately inversely proportional to loading rate. These laboratory events initiate due to a slip rate-dependent process that also determines the size of the stress drop [Dieterich, 1979; Ruina, 1983] and as a consequence, stress drop varies weakly but systematically with loading rate [e.g., Gu and Wong, 1991; Karner and Marone, 2000; McLaskey et al., 2012]. This is especially evident in experiments where the loading rate is changed by orders of magnitude, as is thought to be the loading condition of naturally occurring, small repeating earthquakes driven by afterslip, or low-frequency earthquakes loaded by episodic slip. As follows from the previous studies referred to above, experimentally observed stress drops are well described by a logarithmic dependence on recurrence interval that can be cast as a non-linear slip-predictable model. The fault’s rate dependence of strength is the key physical parameter. Additionally, even at constant loading rate the most reproducible laboratory recurrence is not exactly periodic, unlike existing friction recurrence models. We present example laboratory catalogs that document the variance and show that in large catalogs, even at constant loading rate, stress drop and recurrence co-vary systematically. The origin of this covariance is largely consistent with variability of the dependence of fault strength on slip rate. Laboratory catalogs show aspects of both slip and time predictability and successive stress drops are strongly correlated indicating a ‘memory’ of prior slip history that extends over at least one recurrence cycle.

  5. Laboratory constraints on models of earthquake recurrence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beeler, N. M.; Tullis, Terry; Junger, Jenni; Kilgore, Brian; Goldsby, David

    2014-12-01

    In this study, rock friction "stick-slip" experiments are used to develop constraints on models of earthquake recurrence. Constant rate loading of bare rock surfaces in high-quality experiments produces stick-slip recurrence that is periodic at least to second order. When the loading rate is varied, recurrence is approximately inversely proportional to loading rate. These laboratory events initiate due to a slip-rate-dependent process that also determines the size of the stress drop and, as a consequence, stress drop varies weakly but systematically with loading rate. This is especially evident in experiments where the loading rate is changed by orders of magnitude, as is thought to be the loading condition of naturally occurring, small repeating earthquakes driven by afterslip, or low-frequency earthquakes loaded by episodic slip. The experimentally observed stress drops are well described by a logarithmic dependence on recurrence interval that can be cast as a nonlinear slip predictable model. The fault's rate dependence of strength is the key physical parameter. Additionally, even at constant loading rate the most reproducible laboratory recurrence is not exactly periodic, unlike existing friction recurrence models. We present example laboratory catalogs that document the variance and show that in large catalogs, even at constant loading rate, stress drop and recurrence covary systematically. The origin of this covariance is largely consistent with variability of the dependence of fault strength on slip rate. Laboratory catalogs show aspects of both slip and time predictability, and successive stress drops are strongly correlated indicating a "memory" of prior slip history that extends over at least one recurrence cycle.

  6. How Long Is Long Enough? Estimation of Slip-Rate and Earthquake Recurrence Interval on a Simple Plate-Boundary Fault Using 3D Paleoseismic Trenching

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wechsler, N.; Rockwell, T. K.; Klinger, Y.; Agnon, A.; Marco, S.

    2012-12-01

    Models used to forecast future seismicity make fundamental assumptions about the behavior of faults and fault systems in the long term, but in many cases this long-term behavior is assumed using short-term and perhaps non-representative observations. The question arises - how long of a record is long enough to represent actual fault behavior, both in terms of recurrence of earthquakes and of moment release (aka slip-rate). We test earthquake recurrence and slip models via high-resolution three-dimensional trenching of the Beteiha (Bet-Zayda) site on the Dead Sea Transform (DST) in northern Israel. We extend the earthquake history of this simple plate boundary fault to establish slip rate for the past 3-4kyr, to determine the amount of slip per event and to study the fundamental behavior, thereby testing competing rupture models (characteristic, slip-patch, slip-loading, and Gutenberg Richter type distribution). To this end we opened more than 900m of trenches, mapped 8 buried channels and dated more than 80 radiocarbon samples. By mapping buried channels, offset by the DST on both sides of the fault, we obtained for each an estimate of displacement. Coupled with fault crossing trenches to determine event history, we construct earthquake and slip history for the fault for the past 2kyr. We observe evidence for a total of 9-10 surface-rupturing earthquakes with varying offset amounts. 6-7 events occurred in the 1st millennium, compared to just 2-3 in the 2nd millennium CE. From our observations it is clear that the fault is not behaving in a periodic fashion. A 4kyr old buried channel yields a slip rate of 3.5-4mm/yr, consistent with GPS rates for this segment. Yet in spite of the apparent agreement between GPS, Pleistocene to present slip rate, and the lifetime rate of the DST, the past 800-1000 year period appears deficit in strain release. Thus, in terms of moment release, most of the fault has remained locked and is accumulating elastic strain. In contrast, the

  7. Geodetic slip rate for the eastern California shear zone and the recurrence time of Mojave desert earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauber, J.; Thatcher, W.; Solomon, S.C.; Lisowski, M.

    1994-01-01

    Where the San Andreas fault passes along the southwestern margin of the Mojave desert, it exhibits a large change in trend, and the deformation associated with the Pacific/North American plate boundary is distributed broadly over a complex shear zone. The importance of understanding the partitioning of strain across this region, especially to the east of the Mojave segment of the San Andreas in a region known as the eastern California shear zone (ECSZ), was highlighted by the occurrence (on 28 June 1992) of the magnitude 7.3 Landers earthquake in this zone. Here we use geodetic observations in the central Mojave desert to obtain new estimates for the rate and distribution of strain across a segment of the ECSZ, and to determine a coseismic strain drop of ~770 ??rad for the Landers earthquake. From these results we infer a strain energy recharge time of 3,500-5,000 yr for a Landers-type earthquake and a slip rate of ~12 mm yr-1 across the faults of the central Mojave. The latter estimate implies that a greater fraction of plate motion than heretofore inferred from geodetic data is accommodated across the ECSZ.

  8. A Brownian model for recurrent earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Matthews, M.V.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Reasenberg, P.A.

    2002-01-01

    We construct a probability model for rupture times on a recurrent earthquake source. Adding Brownian perturbations to steady tectonic loading produces a stochastic load-state process. Rupture is assumed to occur when this process reaches a critical-failure threshold. An earthquake relaxes the load state to a characteristic ground level and begins a new failure cycle. The load-state process is a Brownian relaxation oscillator. Intervals between events have a Brownian passage-time distribution that may serve as a temporal model for time-dependent, long-term seismic forecasting. This distribution has the following noteworthy properties: (1) the probability of immediate rerupture is zero; (2) the hazard rate increases steadily from zero at t = 0 to a finite maximum near the mean recurrence time and then decreases asymptotically to a quasi-stationary level, in which the conditional probability of an event becomes time independent; and (3) the quasi-stationary failure rate is greater than, equal to, or less than the mean failure rate because the coefficient of variation is less than, equal to, or greater than 1/???2 ??? 0.707. In addition, the model provides expressions for the hazard rate and probability of rupture on faults for which only a bound can be placed on the time of the last rupture. The Brownian relaxation oscillator provides a connection between observable event times and a formal state variable that reflects the macromechanics of stress and strain accumulation. Analysis of this process reveals that the quasi-stationary distance to failure has a gamma distribution, and residual life has a related exponential distribution. It also enables calculation of "interaction" effects due to external perturbations to the state, such as stress-transfer effects from earthquakes outside the target source. The influence of interaction effects on recurrence times is transient and strongly dependent on when in the loading cycle step pertubations occur. Transient effects may

  9. Universal Recurrence Time Statistics of Characteristic Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goltz, C.; Turcotte, D. L.; Abaimov, S.; Nadeau, R. M.

    2006-12-01

    Characteristic earthquakes are defined to occur quasi-periodically on major faults. Do recurrence time statistics of such earthquakes follow a particular statistical distribution? If so, which one? The answer is fundamental and has important implications for hazard assessment. The problem cannot be solved by comparing the goodness of statistical fits as the available sequences are too short. The Parkfield sequence of M ≍ 6 earthquakes, one of the most extensive reliable data sets available, has grown to merely seven events with the last earthquake in 2004, for example. Recently, however, advances in seismological monitoring and improved processing methods have unveiled so-called micro-repeaters, micro-earthquakes which recur exactly in the same location on a fault. It seems plausible to regard these earthquakes as a miniature version of the classic characteristic earthquakes. Micro-repeaters are much more frequent than major earthquakes, leading to longer sequences for analysis. Due to their recent discovery, however, available sequences contain less than 20 events at present. In this paper we present results for the analysis of recurrence times for several micro-repeater sequences from Parkfield and adjacent regions. To improve the statistical significance of our findings, we combine several sequences into one by rescaling the individual sets by their respective mean recurrence intervals and Weibull exponents. This novel approach of rescaled combination yields the most extensive data set possible. We find that the resulting statistics can be fitted well by an exponential distribution, confirming the universal applicability of the Weibull distribution to characteristic earthquakes. A similar result is obtained from rescaled combination, however, with regard to the lognormal distribution.

  10. Geological and historical evidence of irregular recurrent earthquakes in Japan.

    PubMed

    Satake, Kenji

    2015-10-28

    Great (M∼8) earthquakes repeatedly occur along the subduction zones around Japan and cause fault slip of a few to several metres releasing strains accumulated from decades to centuries of plate motions. Assuming a simple 'characteristic earthquake' model that similar earthquakes repeat at regular intervals, probabilities of future earthquake occurrence have been calculated by a government committee. However, recent studies on past earthquakes including geological traces from giant (M∼9) earthquakes indicate a variety of size and recurrence interval of interplate earthquakes. Along the Kuril Trench off Hokkaido, limited historical records indicate that average recurrence interval of great earthquakes is approximately 100 years, but the tsunami deposits show that giant earthquakes occurred at a much longer interval of approximately 400 years. Along the Japan Trench off northern Honshu, recurrence of giant earthquakes similar to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake with an interval of approximately 600 years is inferred from historical records and tsunami deposits. Along the Sagami Trough near Tokyo, two types of Kanto earthquakes with recurrence interval of a few hundred years and a few thousand years had been recognized, but studies show that the recent three Kanto earthquakes had different source extents. Along the Nankai Trough off western Japan, recurrence of great earthquakes with an interval of approximately 100 years has been identified from historical literature, but tsunami deposits indicate that the sizes of the recurrent earthquakes are variable. Such variability makes it difficult to apply a simple 'characteristic earthquake' model for the long-term forecast, and several attempts such as use of geological data for the evaluation of future earthquake probabilities or the estimation of maximum earthquake size in each subduction zone are being conducted by government committees. © 2015 The Author(s).

  11. A physically-based earthquake recurrence model for estimation of long-term earthquake probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ellsworth, William L.; Matthews, Mark V.; Nadeau, Robert M.; Nishenko, Stuart P.; Reasenberg, Paul A.; Simpson, Robert W.

    1999-01-01

    A physically-motivated model for earthquake recurrence based on the Brownian relaxation oscillator is introduced. The renewal process defining this point process model can be described by the steady rise of a state variable from the ground state to failure threshold as modulated by Brownian motion. Failure times in this model follow the Brownian passage time (BPT) distribution, which is specified by the mean time to failure, μ, and the aperiodicity of the mean, α (equivalent to the familiar coefficient of variation). Analysis of 37 series of recurrent earthquakes, M -0.7 to 9.2, suggests a provisional generic value of α = 0.5. For this value of α, the hazard function (instantaneous failure rate of survivors) exceeds the mean rate for times > μ⁄2, and is ~ ~ 2 ⁄ μ for all times > μ. Application of this model to the next M 6 earthquake on the San Andreas fault at Parkfield, California suggests that the annual probability of the earthquake is between 1:10 and 1:13.

  12. Earthquake recurrence models fail when earthquakes fail to reset the stress field

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tormann, Thessa; Wiemer, Stefan; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.

    2012-01-01

    Parkfield's regularly occurring M6 mainshocks, about every 25 years, have over two decades stoked seismologists' hopes to successfully predict an earthquake of significant size. However, with the longest known inter-event time of 38 years, the latest M6 in the series (28 Sep 2004) did not conform to any of the applied forecast models, questioning once more the predictability of earthquakes in general. Our study investigates the spatial pattern of b-values along the Parkfield segment through the seismic cycle and documents a stably stressed structure. The forecasted rate of M6 earthquakes based on Parkfield's microseismicity b-values corresponds well to observed rates. We interpret the observed b-value stability in terms of the evolution of the stress field in that area: the M6 Parkfield earthquakes do not fully unload the stress on the fault, explaining why time recurrent models fail. We present the 1989 M6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake as counter example, which did release a significant portion of the stress along its fault segment and yields a substantial change in b-values.

  13. Rescaled earthquake recurrence time statistics: application to microrepeaters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goltz, Christian; Turcotte, Donald L.; Abaimov, Sergey G.; Nadeau, Robert M.; Uchida, Naoki; Matsuzawa, Toru

    2009-01-01

    Slip on major faults primarily occurs during `characteristic' earthquakes. The recurrence statistics of characteristic earthquakes play an important role in seismic hazard assessment. A major problem in determining applicable statistics is the short sequences of characteristic earthquakes that are available worldwide. In this paper, we introduce a rescaling technique in which sequences can be superimposed to establish larger numbers of data points. We consider the Weibull and log-normal distributions, in both cases we rescale the data using means and standard deviations. We test our approach utilizing sequences of microrepeaters, micro-earthquakes which recur in the same location on a fault. It seems plausible to regard these earthquakes as a miniature version of the classic characteristic earthquakes. Microrepeaters are much more frequent than major earthquakes, leading to longer sequences for analysis. In this paper, we present results for the analysis of recurrence times for several microrepeater sequences from Parkfield, CA as well as NE Japan. We find that, once the respective sequence can be considered to be of sufficient stationarity, the statistics can be well fitted by either a Weibull or a log-normal distribution. We clearly demonstrate this fact by our technique of rescaled combination. We conclude that the recurrence statistics of the microrepeater sequences we consider are similar to the recurrence statistics of characteristic earthquakes on major faults.

  14. Chilean megathrust earthquake recurrence linked to frictional contrast at depth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreno, M.; Li, S.; Melnick, D.; Bedford, J. R.; Baez, J. C.; Motagh, M.; Metzger, S.; Vajedian, S.; Sippl, C.; Gutknecht, B. D.; Contreras-Reyes, E.; Deng, Z.; Tassara, A.; Oncken, O.

    2018-04-01

    Fundamental processes of the seismic cycle in subduction zones, including those controlling the recurrence and size of great earthquakes, are still poorly understood. Here, by studying the 2016 earthquake in southern Chile—the first large event within the rupture zone of the 1960 earthquake (moment magnitude (Mw) = 9.5)—we show that the frictional zonation of the plate interface fault at depth mechanically controls the timing of more frequent, moderate-size deep events (Mw < 8) and less frequent, tsunamigenic great shallow earthquakes (Mw > 8.5). We model the evolution of stress build-up for a seismogenic zone with heterogeneous friction to examine the link between the 2016 and 1960 earthquakes. Our results suggest that the deeper segments of the seismogenic megathrust are weaker and interseismically loaded by a more strongly coupled, shallower asperity. Deeper segments fail earlier ( 60 yr recurrence), producing moderate-size events that precede the failure of the shallower region, which fails in a great earthquake (recurrence >110 yr). We interpret the contrasting frictional strength and lag time between deeper and shallower earthquakes to be controlled by variations in pore fluid pressure. Our integrated analysis strengthens understanding of the mechanics and timing of great megathrust earthquakes, and therefore could aid in the seismic hazard assessment of other subduction zones.

  15. Paleoseismic Evidence for Recurrence of Earthquakes near Charleston, South Carolina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Talwani, Pradeep; Cox, John

    1985-07-01

    A destructive earthquake that occurred in 1886 near Charleston, South Carolina, was associated with widespread liquefaction of shallow sand structures and their extravasation to the surface. Several seismically induced paleoliquefaction structures preserved within the shallow sediments in the meizoseismal area of the 1886 event were identified. Field evidence and radiocarbon dates suggest that at least two earthquakes of magnitudes greater than 6.2 preceded the 1886 event in the past 3000 to 3700 years. The evidence yielded an initial estimate of about 1500 to 1800 years for the maximum recurrence of destructive, intraplate earthquakes in the Charleston region.

  16. Seismic Regionalization of Michoacan, Mexico and Recurrence Periods for Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magaña García, N.; Figueroa-Soto, Á.; Garduño-Monroy, V. H.; Zúñiga, R.

    2017-12-01

    Michoacán is one of the states with the highest occurrence of earthquakes in Mexico and it is a limit of convergence triggered by the subduction of Cocos plate over the North American plate, located in the zone of the Pacific Ocean of our country, in addition to the existence of active faults inside of the state like the Morelia-Acambay Fault System (MAFS).It is important to make a combination of seismic, paleosismological and geological studies to have good planning and development of urban complexes to mitigate disasters if destructive earthquakes appear. With statistical seismology it is possible to characterize the degree of seismic activity as well as to estimate the recurrence periods for earthquakes. For this work, seismicity catalog of Michoacán was compiled and homogenized in time and magnitude. This information was obtained from world and national agencies (SSN, CMT, etc), some data published by Mendoza and Martínez-López (2016) and starting from the seismic catalog homogenized by F. R. Zúñiga (Personal communication). From the analysis of the different focal mechanisms reported in the literature and geological studies, the seismic regionalization of the state of Michoacán complemented the one presented by Vázquez-Rosas (2012) and the recurrence periods for earthquakes within the four different seismotectonic regions. In addition, stable periods were determined for the b value of the Gutenberg-Richter (1944) using the Maximum Curvature and EMR (Entire Magnitude Range Method, 2005) techniques, which allowed us to determine recurrence periods: years for earthquakes upper to 7.5 for the subduction zone (A zone) with EMR technique and years with MAXC technique for the same years for earthquakes upper to 5 for B1 zone with EMR technique and years with MAXC technique; years for earthquakes upper to 7.0 for B2 zone with EMR technique and years with MAXC technique; and the last one, the Morelia-Acambay Fault Sistem zone (C zone) years for earthquakes

  17. Silica precipitation potentially controls earthquake recurrence in seismogenic zones.

    PubMed

    Saishu, Hanae; Okamoto, Atsushi; Otsubo, Makoto

    2017-10-17

    Silica precipitation is assumed to play a significant role in post-earthquake recovery of the mechanical and hydrological properties of seismogenic zones. However, the relationship between the widespread quartz veins around seismogenic zones and earthquake recurrence is poorly understood. Here we propose a novel model of quartz vein formation associated with fluid advection from host rocks and silica precipitation in a crack, in order to quantify the timescale of crack sealing. When applied to sets of extensional quartz veins around the Nobeoka Thrust of SW Japan, an ancient seismogenic splay fault, our model indicates that a fluid pressure drop of 10-25 MPa facilitates the formation of typical extensional quartz veins over a period of 6.6 × 10 0 -5.6 × 10 1 years, and that 89%-100% of porosity is recovered within ~3 × 10 2 years. The former and latter sealing timescales correspond to the extensional stress period (~3 × 10 1 years) and the recurrence interval of megaearthquakes in the Nankai Trough (~3 × 10 2 years), respectively. We therefore suggest that silica precipitation in the accretionary wedge controls the recurrence interval of large earthquakes in subduction zones.

  18. Large earthquake rates from geologic, geodetic, and seismological perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jackson, D. D.

    2017-12-01

    Earthquake rate and recurrence information comes primarily from geology, geodesy, and seismology. Geology gives the longest temporal perspective, but it reveals only surface deformation, relatable to earthquakes only with many assumptions. Geodesy is also limited to surface observations, but it detects evidence of the processes leading to earthquakes, again subject to important assumptions. Seismology reveals actual earthquakes, but its history is too short to capture important properties of very large ones. Unfortunately, the ranges of these observation types barely overlap, so that integrating them into a consistent picture adequate to infer future prospects requires a great deal of trust. Perhaps the most important boundary is the temporal one at the beginning of the instrumental seismic era, about a century ago. We have virtually no seismological or geodetic information on large earthquakes before then, and little geological information after. Virtually all-modern forecasts of large earthquakes assume some form of equivalence between tectonic- and seismic moment rates as functions of location, time, and magnitude threshold. That assumption links geology, geodesy, and seismology, but it invokes a host of other assumptions and incurs very significant uncertainties. Questions include temporal behavior of seismic and tectonic moment rates; shape of the earthquake magnitude distribution; upper magnitude limit; scaling between rupture length, width, and displacement; depth dependence of stress coupling; value of crustal rigidity; and relation between faults at depth and their surface fault traces, to name just a few. In this report I'll estimate the quantitative implications for estimating large earthquake rate. Global studies like the GEAR1 project suggest that surface deformation from geology and geodesy best show the geography of very large, rare earthquakes in the long term, while seismological observations of small earthquakes best forecasts moderate earthquakes

  19. GPS constraints on M 7-8 earthquake recurrence times for the New Madrid seismic zone

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stuart, W.D.

    2001-01-01

    Newman et al. (1999) estimate the time interval between the 1811-1812 earthquake sequence near New Madrid, Missouri and a future similar sequence to be at least 2,500 years, an interval significantly longer than other recently published estimates. To calculate the recurrence time, they assume that slip on a vertical half-plane at depth contributes to the current interseismic motion of GPS benchmarks. Compared to other plausible fault models, the half-plane model gives nearly the maximum rate of ground motion for the same interseismic slip rate. Alternative models with smaller interseismic fault slip area can satisfy the present GPS data by having higher slip rate and thus can have earthquake recurrence times much less than 2,500 years.

  20. Viscoelasticity, postseismic slip, fault interactions, and the recurrence of large earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Michael, A.J.

    2005-01-01

    The Brownian Passage Time (BPT) model for earthquake recurrence is modified to include transient deformation due to either viscoelasticity or deep post seismic slip. Both of these processes act to increase the rate of loading on the seismogenic fault for some time after a large event. To approximate these effects, a decaying exponential term is added to the BPT model's uniform loading term. The resulting interevent time distributions remain approximately lognormal, but the balance between the level of noise (e.g., unknown fault interactions) and the coefficient of variability of the interevent time distribution changes depending on the shape of the loading function. For a given level of noise in the loading process, transient deformation has the effect of increasing the coefficient of variability of earthquake interevent times. Conversely, the level of noise needed to achieve a given level of variability is reduced when transient deformation is included. Using less noise would then increase the effect of known fault interactions modeled as stress or strain steps because they would be larger with respect to the noise. If we only seek to estimate the shape of the interevent time distribution from observed earthquake occurrences, then the use of a transient deformation model will not dramatically change the results of a probability study because a similar shaped distribution can be achieved with either uniform or transient loading functions. However, if the goal is to estimate earthquake probabilities based on our increasing understanding of the seismogenic process, including earthquake interactions, then including transient deformation is important to obtain accurate results. For example, a loading curve based on the 1906 earthquake, paleoseismic observations of prior events, and observations of recent deformation in the San Francisco Bay region produces a 40% greater variability in earthquake recurrence than a uniform loading model with the same noise level.

  1. Recurrence of attic cholesteatoma: different methods of estimating recurrence rates.

    PubMed

    Stangerup, S E; Drozdziewicz, D; Tos, M; Hougaard-Jensen, A

    2000-09-01

    One problem in cholesteatoma surgery is recurrence of cholesteatoma, which is reported to vary from 5% to 71%. This great variability can be explained by issues such as the type of cholesteatoma, surgical technique, follow-up rate, length of the postoperative observation period, and statistical method applied. The aim of this study was to illustrate the impact of applying different statistical methods to the same material. Thirty-three children underwent single-stage surgery for attic cholesteatoma during a 15-year period. Thirty patients (94%) attended a re-evaluation. During the observation period of 15 years, recurrence of cholesteatoma occurred in 10 ears. The cumulative total recurrence rate varied from 30% to 67%, depending on the statistical method applied. In conclusion, the choice of statistical method should depend on the number of patients, follow-up rates, length of the postoperative observation period and presence of censored data.

  2. Wrightwood and the earthquake cycle: What a long recurrence record tells us about how faults work

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Weldon, R.; Scharer, K.; Fumal, T.; Biasi, G.

    2004-01-01

    The concept of the earthquake cycle is so well established that one often hears statements in the popular media like, "the Big One is overdue" and "the longer it waits, the bigger it will be." Surprisingly, data to critically test the variability in recurrence intervals, rupture displacements, and relationships between the two are almost nonexistent. To generate a long series of earthquake intervals and offsets, we have conducted paleoseismic investigations across the San Andreas fault near the town of Wrightwood, California, excavating 45 trenches over 18 years, and can now provide some answers to basic questions about recurrence behavior of large earthquakes. To date, we have characterized at least 30 prehistoric earthquakes in a 6000-yr-long record, complete for the past 1500 yr and for the interval 3000-1500 B.C. For the past 1500 yr, the mean recurrence interval is 105 yr (31-165 yr for individual intervals) and the mean slip is 3.2 m (0.7-7 m per event). The series is slightly more ordered than random and has a notable cluster of events, during which strain was released at 3 times the long-term average rate. Slip associated with an earthquake is not well predicted by the interval preceding it, and only the largest two earthquakes appear to affect the time interval to the next earthquake. Generally, short intervals tend to coincide with large displacements and long intervals with small displacements. The most significant correlation we find is that earthquakes are more frequent following periods of net strain accumulation spanning multiple seismic cycles. The extent of paleoearthquake ruptures may be inferred by correlating event ages between different sites along the San Andreas fault. Wrightwood and other nearby sites experience rupture that could be attributed to overlap of relatively independent segments that each behave in a more regular manner. However, the data are equally consistent with a model in which the irregular behavior seen at Wrightwood

  3. Earthquake recurrence models and occurrence probabilities of strong earthquakes in the North Aegean Trough (Greece)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christos, Kourouklas; Eleftheria, Papadimitriou; George, Tsaklidis; Vassilios, Karakostas

    2018-06-01

    The determination of strong earthquakes' recurrence time above a predefined magnitude, associated with specific fault segments, is an important component of seismic hazard assessment. The occurrence of these earthquakes is neither periodic nor completely random but often clustered in time. This fact in connection with their limited number, due to shortage of the available catalogs, inhibits a deterministic approach for recurrence time calculation, and for this reason, application of stochastic processes is required. In this study, recurrence time determination in the area of North Aegean Trough (NAT) is developed by the application of time-dependent stochastic models, introducing an elastic rebound motivated concept for individual fault segments located in the study area. For this purpose, all the available information on strong earthquakes (historical and instrumental) with M w ≥ 6.5 is compiled and examined for magnitude completeness. Two possible starting dates of the catalog are assumed with the same magnitude threshold, M w ≥ 6.5 and divided into five data sets, according to a new segmentation model for the study area. Three Brownian Passage Time (BPT) models with different levels of aperiodicity are applied and evaluated with the Anderson-Darling test for each segment in both catalog data where possible. The preferable models are then used in order to estimate the occurrence probabilities of M w ≥ 6.5 shocks on each segment of NAT for the next 10, 20, and 30 years since 01/01/2016. Uncertainties in probability calculations are also estimated using a Monte Carlo procedure. It must be mentioned that the provided results should be treated carefully because of their dependence to the initial assumptions. Such assumptions exhibit large variability and alternative means of these may return different final results.

  4. Recurrence of great earthquakes and tsunamis, Aceh Province, Sumatra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rubin, C. M.; Horton, B.; Sieh, K.; Pilarczyk, J.; Hawkes, A. D.; Daly, P.; Kelsey, H. M.; McKinnon, E.; Ismail, N.; Daryono, M. R.

    2013-12-01

    The timing and characterization of ancient earthquakes and tsunamis inferred from a variety of geologic studies in Aceh Province, Sumatra, are helping to understand predecessors of the 2004 event in the Indian Ocean region. We report results from three different depositional environments along the western and northern coast of Aceh Province, Sumatra, that illuminate the history of tsunamis through the past several millennia. Within a coastal cave along the western coast is an extraordinary sedimentary deposit that contains a 7,000-year long sequence of tsunami sands separated by bat guano. In two sea cliff exposures along the northern coast of Aceh is evidence for two closely timed predecessors of the giant 2004 tsunami that destroyed communities along the coast about 500 years ago. In addition, coastal wetlands along the western coast document land-level changes and tsunamis associated with the earthquake cycle in the early- to mid-Holocene. Together these records show a marked variability in recurrence of large tsunamis along the Acehnese coast. Time between inundations averages close to 500 years but range from a few centuries to a millennium.

  5. Foreshock occurrence rates before large earthquakes worldwide

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reasenberg, P.A.

    1999-01-01

    Global rates of foreshock occurrence involving shallow M ??? 6 and M ??? 7 mainshocks and M ??? 5 foreshocks were measured, using earthquakes listed in the Harvard CMT catalog for the period 1978-1996. These rates are similar to rates ones measured in previous worldwide and regional studies when they are normalized for the ranges of magnitude difference they each span. The observed worldwide rates were compared to a generic model of earthquake clustering, which is based on patterns of small and moderate aftershocks in California, and were found to exceed the California model by a factor of approximately 2. Significant differences in foreshock rate were found among subsets of earthquakes defined by their focal mechanism and tectonic region, with the rate before thrust events higher and the rate before strike-slip events lower than the worldwide average. Among the thrust events a large majority, composed of events located in shallow subduction zones, registered a high foreshock rate, while a minority, located in continental thrust belts, measured a low rate. These differences may explain why previous surveys have revealed low foreshock rates among thrust events in California (especially southern California), while the worldwide observations suggest the opposite: California, lacking an active subduction zone in most of its territory, and including a region of mountain-building thrusts in the south, reflects the low rate apparently typical for continental thrusts, while the worldwide observations, dominated by shallow subduction zone events, are foreshock-rich.

  6. Periodic, chaotic, and doubled earthquake recurrence intervals on the deep San Andreas Fault

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shelly, David R.

    2010-01-01

    Earthquake recurrence histories may provide clues to the timing of future events, but long intervals between large events obscure full recurrence variability. In contrast, small earthquakes occur frequently, and recurrence intervals are quantifiable on a much shorter time scale. In this work, I examine an 8.5-year sequence of more than 900 recurring low-frequency earthquake bursts composing tremor beneath the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. These events exhibit tightly clustered recurrence intervals that, at times, oscillate between ~3 and ~6 days, but the patterns sometimes change abruptly. Although the environments of large and low-frequency earthquakes are different, these observations suggest that similar complexity might underlie sequences of large earthquakes.

  7. Fixed recurrence and slip models better predict earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models: 2. Laboratory earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rubinstein, Justin L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Beeler, Nicholas M.; Kilgore, Brian D.; Lockner, David A.; Savage, Heather M.

    2012-02-01

    The behavior of individual stick-slip events observed in three different laboratory experimental configurations is better explained by a "memoryless" earthquake model with fixed inter-event time or fixed slip than it is by the time- and slip-predictable models for earthquake occurrence. We make similar findings in the companion manuscript for the behavior of natural repeating earthquakes. Taken together, these results allow us to conclude that the predictions of a characteristic earthquake model that assumes either fixed slip or fixed recurrence interval should be preferred to the predictions of the time- and slip-predictable models for all earthquakes. Given that the fixed slip and recurrence models are the preferred models for all of the experiments we examine, we infer that in an event-to-event sense the elastic rebound model underlying the time- and slip-predictable models does not explain earthquake behavior. This does not indicate that the elastic rebound model should be rejected in a long-term-sense, but it should be rejected for short-term predictions. The time- and slip-predictable models likely offer worse predictions of earthquake behavior because they rely on assumptions that are too simple to explain the behavior of earthquakes. Specifically, the time-predictable model assumes a constant failure threshold and the slip-predictable model assumes that there is a constant minimum stress. There is experimental and field evidence that these assumptions are not valid for all earthquakes.

  8. Irregular earthquake recurrence patterns and slip variability on a plate-boundary Fault

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wechsler, N.; Rockwell, T. K.; Klinger, Y.

    2015-12-01

    The Dead Sea fault in the Levant represents a simple, segmented plate boundary from the Gulf of Aqaba northward to the Sea of Galilee, where it changes its character into a complex plate boundary with multiple sub-parallel faults in northern Israel, Lebanon and Syria. The studied Jordan Gorge (JG) segment is the northernmost part of the simple section, before the fault becomes more complex. Seven fault-crossing buried paleo-channels, offset by the Dead Sea fault, were investigated using paleoseismic and geophysical methods. The mapped offsets capture the long-term rupture history and slip-rate behavior on the JG fault segment for the past 4000 years. The ~20 km long JG segment appears to be more active (in term of number of earthquakes) than its neighboring segments to the south and north. The rate of movement on this segment varies considerably over the studied period: the long-term slip-rate for the entire 4000 years is similar to previously observed rates (~4 mm/yr), yet over shorter time periods the rate varies from 3-8 mm/yr. Paleoseismic data on both timing and displacement indicate a high COV >1 (clustered) with displacement per event varying by nearly an order of magnitude. The rate of earthquake production does not produce a time predictable pattern over a period of 2 kyr. We postulate that the seismic behavior of the JG fault is influenced by stress interactions with its neighboring faults to the north and south. Coulomb stress modelling demonstrates that an earthquake on any neighboring fault will increase the Coulomb stress on the JG fault and thus promote rupture. We conclude that deriving on-fault slip-rates and earthquake recurrence patterns from a single site and/or over a short time period can produce misleading results. The definition of an adequately long time period to resolve slip-rate is a question that needs to be addressed and requires further work.

  9. Fixed recurrence and slip models better predict earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models 1: repeating earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rubinstein, Justin L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Chen, Kate Huihsuan; Uchida, Naoki

    2012-01-01

    The behavior of individual events in repeating earthquake sequences in California, Taiwan and Japan is better predicted by a model with fixed inter-event time or fixed slip than it is by the time- and slip-predictable models for earthquake occurrence. Given that repeating earthquakes are highly regular in both inter-event time and seismic moment, the time- and slip-predictable models seem ideally suited to explain their behavior. Taken together with evidence from the companion manuscript that shows similar results for laboratory experiments we conclude that the short-term predictions of the time- and slip-predictable models should be rejected in favor of earthquake models that assume either fixed slip or fixed recurrence interval. This implies that the elastic rebound model underlying the time- and slip-predictable models offers no additional value in describing earthquake behavior in an event-to-event sense, but its value in a long-term sense cannot be determined. These models likely fail because they rely on assumptions that oversimplify the earthquake cycle. We note that the time and slip of these events is predicted quite well by fixed slip and fixed recurrence models, so in some sense they are time- and slip-predictable. While fixed recurrence and slip models better predict repeating earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models, we observe a correlation between slip and the preceding recurrence time for many repeating earthquake sequences in Parkfield, California. This correlation is not found in other regions, and the sequences with the correlative slip-predictable behavior are not distinguishable from nearby earthquake sequences that do not exhibit this behavior.

  10. Estimation of recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone based on seismic moment accumulation/release model.

    PubMed

    Ren, Junjie; Zhang, Shimin

    2013-01-01

    Recurrence interval of large earthquake on an active fault zone is an important parameter in assessing seismic hazard. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) occurred on the central Longmen Shan fault zone and ruptured the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault (YBF) and the Guanxian-Jiangyou fault (GJF). However, there is a considerable discrepancy among recurrence intervals of large earthquake in preseismic and postseismic estimates based on slip rate and paleoseismologic results. Post-seismic trenches showed that the central Longmen Shan fault zone probably undertakes an event similar to the 2008 quake, suggesting a characteristic earthquake model. In this paper, we use the published seismogenic model of the 2008 earthquake based on Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data and construct a characteristic seismic moment accumulation/release model to estimate recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone. Our results show that the seismogenic zone accommodates a moment rate of (2.7 ± 0.3) × 10¹⁷ N m/yr, and a recurrence interval of 3900 ± 400 yrs is necessary for accumulation of strain energy equivalent to the 2008 earthquake. This study provides a preferred interval estimation of large earthquakes for seismic hazard analysis in the Longmen Shan region.

  11. Estimation of Recurrence Interval of Large Earthquakes on the Central Longmen Shan Fault Zone Based on Seismic Moment Accumulation/Release Model

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Shimin

    2013-01-01

    Recurrence interval of large earthquake on an active fault zone is an important parameter in assessing seismic hazard. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) occurred on the central Longmen Shan fault zone and ruptured the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault (YBF) and the Guanxian-Jiangyou fault (GJF). However, there is a considerable discrepancy among recurrence intervals of large earthquake in preseismic and postseismic estimates based on slip rate and paleoseismologic results. Post-seismic trenches showed that the central Longmen Shan fault zone probably undertakes an event similar to the 2008 quake, suggesting a characteristic earthquake model. In this paper, we use the published seismogenic model of the 2008 earthquake based on Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data and construct a characteristic seismic moment accumulation/release model to estimate recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone. Our results show that the seismogenic zone accommodates a moment rate of (2.7 ± 0.3) × 1017 N m/yr, and a recurrence interval of 3900 ± 400 yrs is necessary for accumulation of strain energy equivalent to the 2008 earthquake. This study provides a preferred interval estimation of large earthquakes for seismic hazard analysis in the Longmen Shan region. PMID:23878524

  12. RECURRENCE RATES OF OCULAR TOXOPLASMOSIS DURING PREGNANCY

    PubMed Central

    Braakenburg, Arthur M.D.; Crespi, Catherine M.; Holland, Gary N.; Wu, Sheng; Yu, Fei; Rothova, Aniki

    2014-01-01

    Purpose To investigate whether recurrence rates of ocular toxoplasmosis are higher during pregnancy among women of childbearing age. Design Retrospective longitudinal cohort study. Methods We reviewed medical records of all women seen at a university eye clinic (Utrecht, Netherlands) during episodes of active toxoplasmic retinochoroiditis that occurred while the women were of childbearing age (16–42 years). Each woman was sent a questionnaire requesting information regarding all pregnancies and episodes of ocular toxoplasmosis, whether or not episodes were observed at the eye clinic. Conditional fixed-effects Poisson regression was used to model incident rate ratios of recurrence during pregnant versus non-pregnant intervals, adjusted for potential confounders, including age at time of active toxoplasmic retinochoroiditis and interval since last episode of active disease, which are known to influence risk of recurrence. Results Questionnaires were returned by 50 (58%) of 86 women, 34 of whom had 69 pregnancies during 584 person-years of study. There were 128 episodes of ocular toxoplasmosis during the study period (6 during pregnancy). First episodes of ocular toxoplasmosis occurred between ages 9.6 and 38.5 years. Youngest age at pregnancy was 16.1 years; oldest age at childbirth was 40.9 years. Incident rate ratios for pregnant versus non-pregnant intervals were in the direction of lower recurrence rates during pregnancy, with point estimates of 0.54 and 0.75 under two different approaches, but ratios were not significantly different from the null value (p-values of 0.16 and 0.55). Conclusions Recurrence rates of ocular toxoplasmosis are likely not higher during pregnancy, in contrast to traditional beliefs. PMID:24412127

  13. Recurrence rates of ocular toxoplasmosis during pregnancy.

    PubMed

    Braakenburg, Arthur M D; Crespi, Catherine M; Holland, Gary N; Wu, Sheng; Yu, Fei; Rothova, Aniki

    2014-04-01

    To investigate whether recurrence rates of ocular toxoplasmosis are higher during pregnancy in women of childbearing age. Retrospective longitudinal cohort study. We reviewed medical records of all women seen at a university eye clinic (Utrecht, Netherlands) during episodes of active toxoplasmic retinochoroiditis that occurred while the women were of childbearing age (16-42 years). Each woman was sent a questionnaire requesting information regarding all pregnancies and episodes of ocular toxoplasmosis, whether or not episodes were observed at the eye clinic. Conditional fixed-effects Poisson regression was used to model incidence rate ratios of recurrence during pregnant versus nonpregnant intervals, adjusted for potential confounders, including age at time of active toxoplasmic retinochoroiditis and interval since last episode of active disease, which are known to influence risk for recurrence. Questionnaires were returned by 50 (58%) of 86 women, 34 of whom had had 69 pregnancies during 584 person-years of study. There were 128 episodes of ocular toxoplasmosis during the study period (6 during pregnancy). First episodes of ocular toxoplasmosis occurred between ages 9.6 and 38.5 years. The youngest age at pregnancy was 16.1 years; the oldest age at childbirth was 40.9 years. The incidence-rate ratios for pregnant versus nonpregnant intervals were in the direction of lower recurrence rates during pregnancy, with point estimates of 0.54 and 0.75 under 2 different approaches, but the ratios were not significantly different from the null value (P values of 0.16 and 0.55). Recurrence rates of ocular toxoplasmosis are probably not higher during pregnancy, in contrast to traditional beliefs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Quasi-periodic recurrence of large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Scharer, Katherine M.; Biasi, Glenn P.; Weldon, Ray J.; Fumal, Tom E.

    2010-01-01

    It has been 153 yr since the last large earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault (California, United States), but the average interseismic interval is only ~100 yr. If the recurrence of large earthquakes is periodic, rather than random or clustered, the length of this period is notable and would generally increase the risk estimated in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. Unfortunately, robust characterization of a distribution describing earthquake recurrence on a single fault is limited by the brevity of most earthquake records. Here we use statistical tests on a 3000 yr combined record of 29 ground-rupturing earthquakes from Wrightwood, California. We show that earthquake recurrence there is more regular than expected from a Poisson distribution and is not clustered, leading us to conclude that recurrence is quasi-periodic. The observation of unimodal time dependence is persistent across an observationally based sensitivity analysis that critically examines alternative interpretations of the geologic record. The results support formal forecast efforts that use renewal models to estimate probabilities of future earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault. Only four intervals (15%) from the record are longer than the present open interval, highlighting the current hazard posed by this fault.

  15. Constraining the Long-Term Average of Earthquake Recurrence Intervals From Paleo- and Historic Earthquakes by Assimilating Information From Instrumental Seismicity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zoeller, G.

    2017-12-01

    Paleo- and historic earthquakes are the most important source of information for the estimationof long-term recurrence intervals in fault zones, because sequences of paleoearthquakes cover more than one seismic cycle. On the other hand, these events are often rare, dating uncertainties are enormous and the problem of missing or misinterpreted events leads to additional problems. Taking these shortcomings into account, long-term recurrence intervals are usually unstable as long as no additional information are included. In the present study, we assume that the time to the next major earthquake depends on the rate of small and intermediate events between the large ones in terms of a ``clock-change'' model that leads to a Brownian Passage Time distribution for recurrence intervals. We take advantage of an earlier finding that the aperiodicity of this distribution can be related to the Gutenberg-Richter-b-value, which is usually around one and can be estimated easily from instrumental seismicity in the region under consideration. This allows to reduce the uncertainties in the estimation of the mean recurrence interval significantly, especially for short paleoearthquake sequences and high dating uncertainties. We present illustrative case studies from Southern California and compare the method with the commonly used approach of exponentially distributed recurrence times assuming a stationary Poisson process.

  16. M ≥ 7.0 earthquake recurrence on the San Andreas fault from a stress renewal model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, Thomas E.

    2006-01-01

     Forecasting M ≥ 7.0 San Andreas fault earthquakes requires an assessment of their expected frequency. I used a three-dimensional finite element model of California to calculate volumetric static stress drops from scenario M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes on three San Andreas fault sections. The ratio of stress drop to tectonic stressing rate derived from geodetic displacements yielded recovery times at points throughout the model volume. Under a renewal model, stress recovery times on ruptured fault planes can be a proxy for earthquake recurrence. I show curves of magnitude versus stress recovery time for three San Andreas fault sections. When stress recovery times were converted to expected M ≥ 7.0 earthquake frequencies, they fit Gutenberg-Richter relationships well matched to observed regional rates of M ≤ 6.0 earthquakes. Thus a stress-balanced model permits large earthquake Gutenberg-Richter behavior on an individual fault segment, though it does not require it. Modeled slip magnitudes and their expected frequencies were consistent with those observed at the Wrightwood paleoseismic site if strict time predictability does not apply to the San Andreas fault.

  17. Earthquake Clustering on Normal Faults: Insight from Rate-and-State Friction Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biemiller, J.; Lavier, L. L.; Wallace, L.

    2016-12-01

    Temporal variations in slip rate on normal faults have been recognized in Hawaii and the Basin and Range. The recurrence intervals of these slip transients range from 2 years on the flanks of Kilauea, Hawaii to 10 kyr timescale earthquake clustering on the Wasatch Fault in the eastern Basin and Range. In addition to these longer recurrence transients in the Basin and Range, recent GPS results there also suggest elevated deformation rate events with recurrence intervals of 2-4 years. These observations suggest that some active normal fault systems are dominated by slip behaviors that fall between the end-members of steady aseismic creep and periodic, purely elastic, seismic-cycle deformation. Recent studies propose that 200 year to 50 kyr timescale supercycles may control the magnitude, timing, and frequency of seismic-cycle earthquakes in subduction zones, where aseismic slip transients are known to play an important role in total deformation. Seismic cycle deformation of normal faults may be similarly influenced by its timing within long-period supercycles. We present numerical models (based on rate-and-state friction) of normal faults such as the Wasatch Fault showing that realistic rate-and-state parameter distributions along an extensional fault zone can give rise to earthquake clusters separated by 500 yr - 5 kyr periods of aseismic slip transients on some portions of the fault. The recurrence intervals of events within each earthquake cluster range from 200 to 400 years. Our results support the importance of stress and strain history as controls on a normal fault's present and future slip behavior and on the characteristics of its current seismic cycle. These models suggest that long- to medium-term fault slip history may influence the temporal distribution, recurrence interval, and earthquake magnitudes for a given normal fault segment.

  18. Building Time-Dependent Earthquake Recurrence Models for Probabilistic Loss Computations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fitzenz, D. D.; Nyst, M.

    2013-12-01

    We present a Risk Management perspective on earthquake recurrence on mature faults, and the ways that it can be modeled. The specificities of Risk Management relative to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA), include the non-linearity of the exceedance probability curve for losses relative to the frequency of event occurrence, the fact that losses at all return periods are needed (and not at discrete values of the return period), and the set-up of financial models which sometimes require the modeling of realizations of the order in which events may occur (I.e., simulated event dates are important, whereas only average rates of occurrence are routinely used in PSHA). We use New Zealand as a case study and review the physical characteristics of several faulting environments, contrasting them against properties of three probability density functions (PDFs) widely used to characterize the inter-event time distributions in time-dependent recurrence models. We review the data available to help constrain both the priors and the recurrence process. And we propose that with the current level of knowledge, the best way to quantify the recurrence of large events on mature faults is to use a Bayesian combination of models, i.e., the decomposition of the inter-event time distribution into a linear combination of individual PDFs with their weight given by the posterior distribution. Finally we propose to the community : 1. A general debate on how best to incorporate our knowledge (e.g., from geology, geomorphology) on plausible models and model parameters, but also preserve the information on what we do not know; and 2. The creation and maintenance of a global database of priors, data, and model evidence, classified by tectonic region, special fluid characteristic (pH, compressibility, pressure), fault geometry, and other relevant properties so that we can monitor whether some trends emerge in terms of which model dominates in which conditions.

  19. Is earthquake rate in south Iceland modified by seasonal loading?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jonsson, S.; Aoki, Y.; Drouin, V.

    2017-12-01

    Several temporarily varying processes have the potential of modifying the rate of earthquakes in the south Iceland seismic zone, one of the two most active seismic zones in Iceland. These include solid earth tides, seasonal meteorological effects and influence from passing weather systems, and variations in snow and glacier loads. In this study we investigate the influence these processes may have on crustal stresses and stressing rates in the seismic zone and assess whether they appear to be influencing the earthquake rate. While historical earthquakes in the south Iceland have preferentially occurred in early summer, this tendency is less clear for small earthquakes. The local earthquake catalogue (going back to 1991, magnitude of completeness < 1.0) has indeed more earthquakes in summer than in winter. However, this pattern is strongly influenced by aftershock sequences of the largest M6+ earthquakes, which occurred in June 2000 and May 2008. Standard Reasenberg earthquake declustering or more involved model independent stochastic declustering algorithms are not capable of fully eliminating the aftershocks from the catalogue. We therefore inspected the catalogue for the time period before 2000 and it shows limited seasonal tendency in earthquake occurrence. Our preliminary results show no clear correlation between earthquake rates and short-term stressing variations induced from solid earth tides or passing storms. Seasonal meteorological effects also appear to be too small to influence the earthquake activity. Snow and glacier load variations induce significant vertical motions in the area with peak loading occurring in Spring (April-May) and maximum unloading in Fall (Sept.-Oct.). Early summer occurrence of historical earthquakes therefore correlates with early unloading rather than with the peak unloading or unloading rate, which appears to indicate limited influence of this seasonal process on the earthquake activity.

  20. Unusual geologic evidence of coeval seismic shaking and tsunamis shows variability in earthquake size and recurrence in the area of the giant 1960 Chile earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cisternas, M.; Garrett, E; Wesson, Robert L.; Dura, T.; Ely, L. L

    2017-01-01

    An uncommon coastal sedimentary record combines evidence for seismic shaking and coincident tsunami inundation since AD 1000 in the region of the largest earthquake recorded instrumentally: the giant 1960 southern Chile earthquake (Mw 9.5). The record reveals significant variability in the size and recurrence of megathrust earthquakes and ensuing tsunamis along this part of the Nazca-South American plate boundary. A 500-m long coastal outcrop on Isla Chiloé, midway along the 1960 rupture, provides continuous exposure of soil horizons buried locally by debris-flow diamicts and extensively by tsunami sand sheets. The diamicts flattened plants that yield geologically precise ages to correlate with well-dated evidence elsewhere. The 1960 event was preceded by three earthquakes that probably resembled it in their effects, in AD 898 - 1128, 1300 - 1398 and 1575, and by five relatively smaller intervening earthquakes. Earthquakes and tsunamis recurred exceptionally often between AD 1300 and 1575. Their average recurrence interval of 85 years only slightly exceeds the time already elapsed since 1960. This inference is of serious concern because no earthquake has been anticipated in the region so soon after the 1960 event, and current plate locking suggests that some segments of the boundary are already capable of producing large earthquakes. This long-term earthquake and tsunami history of one of the world's most seismically active subduction zones provides an example of variable rupture mode, in which earthquake size and recurrence interval vary from one earthquake to the next.

  1. Recurrent slow slip event likely hastened by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    PubMed Central

    Hirose, Hitoshi; Kimura, Hisanori; Enescu, Bogdan; Aoi, Shin

    2012-01-01

    Slow slip events (SSEs) are another mode of fault deformation than the fast faulting of regular earthquakes. Such transient episodes have been observed at plate boundaries in a number of subduction zones around the globe. The SSEs near the Boso Peninsula, central Japan, are among the most documented SSEs, with the longest repeating history, of almost 30 y, and have a recurrence interval of 5 to 7 y. A remarkable characteristic of the slow slip episodes is the accompanying earthquake swarm activity. Our stable, long-term seismic observations enable us to detect SSEs using the recorded earthquake catalog, by considering an earthquake swarm as a proxy for a slow slip episode. Six recurrent episodes are identified in this way since 1982. The average duration of the SSE interoccurrence interval is 68 mo; however, there are significant fluctuations from this mean. While a regular cycle can be explained using a simple physical model, the mechanisms that are responsible for the observed fluctuations are poorly known. Here we show that the latest SSE in the Boso Peninsula was likely hastened by the stress transfer from the March 11, 2011 great Tohoku earthquake. Moreover, a similar mechanism accounts for the delay of an SSE in 1990 by a nearby earthquake. The low stress buildups and drops during the SSE cycle can explain the strong sensitivity of these SSEs to stress transfer from external sources. PMID:22949688

  2. Variations in rupture process with recurrence interval in a repeated small earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vidale, J.E.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Cole, A.; Marone, Chris

    1994-01-01

    In theory and in laboratory experiments, friction on sliding surfaces such as rock, glass and metal increases with time since the previous episode of slip. This time dependence is a central pillar of the friction laws widely used to model earthquake phenomena. On natural faults, other properties, such as rupture velocity, porosity and fluid pressure, may also vary with the recurrence interval. Eighteen repetitions of the same small earthquake, separated by intervals ranging from a few days to several years, allow us to test these laboratory predictions in situ. The events with the longest time since the previous earthquake tend to have about 15% larger seismic moment than those with the shortest intervals, although this trend is weak. In addition, the rupture durations of the events with the longest recurrence intervals are more than a factor of two shorter than for the events with the shortest intervals. Both decreased duration and increased friction are consistent with progressive fault healing during the time of stationary contact.In theory and in laboratory experiments, friction on sliding surfaces such as rock, glass and metal increases with time since the previous episode of slip. This time dependence is a central pillar of the friction laws widely used to model earthquake phenomena. On natural faults, other properties, such as rupture velocity, porosity and fluid pressure, may also vary with the recurrence interval. Eighteen repetitions of the same small earthquake, separated by intervals ranging from a few days to several years, allow us to test these laboratory predictions in situ. The events with the longest time since the previous earthquake tend to have about 15% larger seismic moment than those with the shortest intervals, although this trend is weak. In addition, the rupture durations of the events with the longest recurrence intervals are more than a factor of two shorter than for the events with the shortest intervals. Both decreased duration and

  3. High Attenuation Rate for Shallow, Small Earthquakes in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Si, Hongjun; Koketsu, Kazuki; Miyake, Hiroe

    2017-09-01

    We compared the attenuation characteristics of peak ground accelerations (PGAs) and velocities (PGVs) of strong motion from shallow, small earthquakes that occurred in Japan with those predicted by the equations of Si and Midorikawa (J Struct Constr Eng 523:63-70, 1999). The observed PGAs and PGVs at stations far from the seismic source decayed more rapidly than the predicted ones. The same tendencies have been reported for deep, moderate, and large earthquakes, but not for shallow, moderate, and large earthquakes. This indicates that the peak values of ground motion from shallow, small earthquakes attenuate more steeply than those from shallow, moderate or large earthquakes. To investigate the reason for this difference, we numerically simulated strong ground motion for point sources of M w 4 and 6 earthquakes using a 2D finite difference method. The analyses of the synthetic waveforms suggested that the above differences are caused by surface waves, which are predominant at stations far from the seismic source for shallow, moderate earthquakes but not for shallow, small earthquakes. Thus, although loss due to reflection at the boundaries of the discontinuous Earth structure occurs in all shallow earthquakes, the apparent attenuation rate for a moderate or large earthquake is essentially the same as that of body waves propagating in a homogeneous medium due to the dominance of surface waves.

  4. Discrepancy between earthquake rates implied by historic earthquakes and a consensus geologic source model for California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Petersen, M.D.; Cramer, C.H.; Reichle, M.S.; Frankel, A.D.; Hanks, T.C.

    2000-01-01

    We examine the difference between expected earthquake rates inferred from the historical earthquake catalog and the geologic data that was used to develop the consensus seismic source characterization for the state of California [California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Petersen et al., 1996; Frankel et al., 1996]. On average the historic earthquake catalog and the seismic source model both indicate about one M 6 or greater earthquake per year in the state of California. However, the overall earthquake rates of earthquakes with magnitudes (M) between 6 and 7 in this seismic source model are higher, by at least a factor of 2, than the mean historic earthquake rates for both southern and northern California. The earthquake rate discrepancy results from a seismic source model that includes earthquakes with characteristic (maximum) magnitudes that are primarily between M 6.4 and 7.1. Many of these faults are interpreted to accommodate high strain rates from geologic and geodetic data but have not ruptured in large earthquakes during historic time. Our sensitivity study indicates that the rate differences between magnitudes 6 and 7 can be reduced by adjusting the magnitude-frequency distribution of the source model to reflect more characteristic behavior, by decreasing the moment rate available for seismogenic slip along faults, by increasing the maximum magnitude of the earthquake on a fault, or by decreasing the maximum magnitude of the background seismicity. However, no single parameter can be adjusted, consistent with scientific consensus, to eliminate the earthquake rate discrepancy. Applying a combination of these parametric adjustments yields an alternative earthquake source model that is more compatible with the historic data. The 475-year return period hazard for peak ground and 1-sec spectral acceleration resulting from this alternative source model differs from the hazard resulting from the

  5. Earthquake recurrence and risk assessment in circum-Pacific seismic gaps

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thatcher, W.

    1989-01-01

    THE development of the concept of seismic gaps, regions of low earthquake activity where large events are expected, has been one of the notable achievements of seismology and plate tectonics. Its application to long-term earthquake hazard assessment continues to be an active field of seismological research. Here I have surveyed well documented case histories of repeated rupture of the same segment of circum-Pacific plate boundary and characterized their general features. I find that variability in fault slip and spatial extent of great earthquakes rupturing the same plate boundary segment is typical rather than exceptional but sequences of major events fill identified seismic gaps with remarkable order. Earthquakes are concentrated late in the seismic cycle and occur with increasing size and magnitude. Furthermore, earthquake rup-ture starts near zones of concentrated moment release, suggesting that high-slip regions control the timing of recurrent events. The absence of major earthquakes early in the seismic cycle indicates a more complex behaviour for lower-slip regions, which may explain the observed cycle-to-cycle diversity of gap-filling sequences. ?? 1989 Nature Publishing Group.

  6. Monte Carlo Method for Determining Earthquake Recurrence Parameters from Short Paleoseismic Catalogs: Example Calculations for California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, Tom

    2008-01-01

    Paleoearthquake observations often lack enough events at a given site to directly define a probability density function (PDF) for earthquake recurrence. Sites with fewer than 10-15 intervals do not provide enough information to reliably determine the shape of the PDF using standard maximum-likelihood techniques [e.g., Ellsworth et al., 1999]. In this paper I present a method that attempts to fit wide ranges of distribution parameters to short paleoseismic series. From repeated Monte Carlo draws, it becomes possible to quantitatively estimate most likely recurrence PDF parameters, and a ranked distribution of parameters is returned that can be used to assess uncertainties in hazard calculations. In tests on short synthetic earthquake series, the method gives results that cluster around the mean of the input distribution, whereas maximum likelihood methods return the sample means [e.g., NIST/SEMATECH, 2006]. For short series (fewer than 10 intervals), sample means tend to reflect the median of an asymmetric recurrence distribution, possibly leading to an overestimate of the hazard should they be used in probability calculations. Therefore a Monte Carlo approach may be useful for assessing recurrence from limited paleoearthquake records. Further, the degree of functional dependence among parameters like mean recurrence interval and coefficient of variation can be established. The method is described for use with time-independent and time-dependent PDF?s, and results from 19 paleoseismic sequences on strike-slip faults throughout the state of California are given.

  7. Monte Carlo method for determining earthquake recurrence parameters from short paleoseismic catalogs: Example calculations for California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, T.

    2008-01-01

    Paleoearthquake observations often lack enough events at a given site to directly define a probability density function (PDF) for earthquake recurrence. Sites with fewer than 10-15 intervals do not provide enough information to reliably determine the shape of the PDF using standard maximum-likelihood techniques (e.g., Ellsworth et al., 1999). In this paper I present a method that attempts to fit wide ranges of distribution parameters to short paleoseismic series. From repeated Monte Carlo draws, it becomes possible to quantitatively estimate most likely recurrence PDF parameters, and a ranked distribution of parameters is returned that can be used to assess uncertainties in hazard calculations. In tests on short synthetic earthquake series, the method gives results that cluster around the mean of the input distribution, whereas maximum likelihood methods return the sample means (e.g., NIST/SEMATECH, 2006). For short series (fewer than 10 intervals), sample means tend to reflect the median of an asymmetric recurrence distribution, possibly leading to an overestimate of the hazard should they be used in probability calculations. Therefore a Monte Carlo approach may be useful for assessing recurrence from limited paleoearthquake records. Further, the degree of functional dependence among parameters like mean recurrence interval and coefficient of variation can be established. The method is described for use with time-independent and time-dependent PDFs, and results from 19 paleoseismic sequences on strike-slip faults throughout the state of California are given.

  8. A New Insight into the Earthquake Recurrence Studies from the Three-parameter Generalized Exponential Distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pasari, S.; Kundu, D.; Dikshit, O.

    2012-12-01

    Earthquake recurrence interval is one of the important ingredients towards probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for any location. Exponential, gamma, Weibull and lognormal distributions are quite established probability models in this recurrence interval estimation. However, they have certain shortcomings too. Thus, it is imperative to search for some alternative sophisticated distributions. In this paper, we introduce a three-parameter (location, scale and shape) exponentiated exponential distribution and investigate the scope of this distribution as an alternative of the afore-mentioned distributions in earthquake recurrence studies. This distribution is a particular member of the exponentiated Weibull distribution. Despite of its complicated form, it is widely accepted in medical and biological applications. Furthermore, it shares many physical properties with gamma and Weibull family. Unlike gamma distribution, the hazard function of generalized exponential distribution can be easily computed even if the shape parameter is not an integer. To contemplate the plausibility of this model, a complete and homogeneous earthquake catalogue of 20 events (M ≥ 7.0) spanning for the period 1846 to 1995 from North-East Himalayan region (20-32 deg N and 87-100 deg E) has been used. The model parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and method of moment estimator (MOME). No geological or geophysical evidences have been considered in this calculation. The estimated conditional probability reaches quite high after about a decade for an elapsed time of 17 years (i.e. 2012). Moreover, this study shows that the generalized exponential distribution fits the above data events more closely compared to the conventional models and hence it is tentatively concluded that generalized exponential distribution can be effectively considered in earthquake recurrence studies.

  9. Long-Term Fault Memory: A New Time-Dependent Recurrence Model for Large Earthquake Clusters on Plate Boundaries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salditch, L.; Brooks, E. M.; Stein, S.; Spencer, B. D.; Campbell, M. R.

    2017-12-01

    A challenge for earthquake hazard assessment is that geologic records often show large earthquakes occurring in temporal clusters separated by periods of quiescence. For example, in Cascadia, a paleoseismic record going back 10,000 years shows four to five clusters separated by approximately 1,000 year gaps. If we are still in the cluster that began 1700 years ago, a large earthquake is likely to happen soon. If the cluster has ended, a great earthquake is less likely. For a Gaussian distribution of recurrence times, the probability of an earthquake in the next 50 years is six times larger if we are still in the most recent cluster. Earthquake hazard assessments typically employ one of two recurrence models, neither of which directly incorporate clustering. In one, earthquake probability is time-independent and modeled as Poissonian, so an earthquake is equally likely at any time. The fault has no "memory" because when a prior earthquake occurred has no bearing on when the next will occur. The other common model is a time-dependent earthquake cycle in which the probability of an earthquake increases with time until one happens, after which the probability resets to zero. Because the probability is reset after each earthquake, the fault "remembers" only the last earthquake. This approach can be used with any assumed probability density function for recurrence times. We propose an alternative, Long-Term Fault Memory (LTFM), a modified earthquake cycle model where the probability of an earthquake increases with time until one happens, after which it decreases, but not necessarily to zero. Hence the probability of the next earthquake depends on the fault's history over multiple cycles, giving "long-term memory". Physically, this reflects an earthquake releasing only part of the elastic strain stored on the fault. We use the LTFM to simulate earthquake clustering along the San Andreas Fault and Cascadia. In some portions of the simulated earthquake history, events would

  10. Accounting for orphaned aftershocks in the earthquake background rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Elst, Nicholas J.

    2017-11-01

    Aftershocks often occur within cascades of triggered seismicity in which each generation of aftershocks triggers an additional generation, and so on. The rate of earthquakes in any particular generation follows Omori's law, going approximately as 1/t. This function decays rapidly, but is heavy-tailed, and aftershock sequences may persist for long times at a rate that is difficult to discriminate from background. It is likely that some apparently spontaneous earthquakes in the observational catalogue are orphaned aftershocks of long-past main shocks. To assess the relative proportion of orphaned aftershocks in the apparent background rate, I develop an extension of the ETAS model that explicitly includes the expected contribution of orphaned aftershocks to the apparent background rate. Applying this model to California, I find that the apparent background rate can be almost entirely attributed to orphaned aftershocks, depending on the assumed duration of an aftershock sequence. This implies an earthquake cascade with a branching ratio (the average number of directly triggered aftershocks per main shock) of nearly unity. In physical terms, this implies that very few earthquakes are completely isolated from the perturbing effects of other earthquakes within the fault system. Accounting for orphaned aftershocks in the ETAS model gives more accurate estimates of the true background rate, and more realistic expectations for long-term seismicity patterns.

  11. Accounting for orphaned aftershocks in the earthquake background rate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Van Der Elst, Nicholas

    2017-01-01

    Aftershocks often occur within cascades of triggered seismicity in which each generation of aftershocks triggers an additional generation, and so on. The rate of earthquakes in any particular generation follows Omori's law, going approximately as 1/t. This function decays rapidly, but is heavy-tailed, and aftershock sequences may persist for long times at a rate that is difficult to discriminate from background. It is likely that some apparently spontaneous earthquakes in the observational catalogue are orphaned aftershocks of long-past main shocks. To assess the relative proportion of orphaned aftershocks in the apparent background rate, I develop an extension of the ETAS model that explicitly includes the expected contribution of orphaned aftershocks to the apparent background rate. Applying this model to California, I find that the apparent background rate can be almost entirely attributed to orphaned aftershocks, depending on the assumed duration of an aftershock sequence. This implies an earthquake cascade with a branching ratio (the average number of directly triggered aftershocks per main shock) of nearly unity. In physical terms, this implies that very few earthquakes are completely isolated from the perturbing effects of other earthquakes within the fault system. Accounting for orphaned aftershocks in the ETAS model gives more accurate estimates of the true background rate, and more realistic expectations for long-term seismicity patterns.

  12. Maximum earthquake magnitudes in the Aegean area constrained by tectonic moment release rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ch. Koravos, G.; Main, I. G.; Tsapanos, T. M.; Musson, R. M. W.

    2003-01-01

    Seismic moment release is usually dominated by the largest but rarest events, making the estimation of seismic hazard inherently uncertain. This uncertainty can be reduced by combining long-term tectonic deformation rates with short-term recurrence rates. Here we adopt this strategy to estimate recurrence rates and maximum magnitudes for tectonic zones in the Aegean area. We first form a merged catalogue for historical and instrumentally recorded earthquakes in the Aegean, based on a recently published catalogue for Greece and surrounding areas covering the time period 550BC-2000AD, at varying degrees of completeness. The historical data are recalibrated to allow for changes in damping in seismic instruments around 1911. We divide the area up into zones that correspond to recent determinations of deformation rate from satellite data. In all zones we find that the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law holds at low magnitudes. We use Akaike's information criterion to determine the best-fitting distribution at high magnitudes, and classify the resulting frequency-magnitude distributions of the zones as critical (GR law), subcritical (gamma density distribution) or supercritical (`characteristic' earthquake model) where appropriate. We determine the ratio η of seismic to tectonic moment release rate. Low values of η (<0.5) corresponding to relatively aseismic deformation, are associated with higher b values (>1.0). The seismic and tectonic moment release rates are then combined to constrain recurrence rates and maximum credible magnitudes (in the range 6.7-7.6 mW where the results are well constrained) based on extrapolating the short-term seismic data. With current earthquake data, many of the tectonic zones show a characteristic distribution that leads to an elevated probability of magnitudes around 7, but a reduced probability of larger magnitudes above this value when compared with the GR trend. A modification of the generalized gamma distribution is suggested to account

  13. Use of recurrence plot and recurrence quantification analysis in Taiwan unemployment rate time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Wei-Shing

    2011-04-01

    The aim of the article is to answer the question if the Taiwan unemployment rate dynamics is generated by a non-linear deterministic dynamic process. This paper applies a recurrence plot and recurrence quantification approach based on the analysis of non-stationary hidden transition patterns of the unemployment rate of Taiwan. The case study uses the time series data of the Taiwan’s unemployment rate during the period from 1978/01 to 2010/06. The results show that recurrence techniques are able to identify various phases in the evolution of unemployment transition in Taiwan.

  14. Detection of Temporally and Spatially Limited Periodic Earthquake Recurrence in Synthetic Seismic Records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zielke, O.; Arrowsmith, R. J.

    2005-12-01

    The nonlinear dynamics of fault behavior are dominated by complex interactions among the multiple processes controlling the system. For example, temporal and spatial variations in pore pressure, healing effects, and stress transfer cause significant heterogeneities in fault properties and the stress-field at the sub-fault level. Numerical and laboratory fault models show that the interaction of large systems of fault elements causes the entire system to develop into a state of self-organized criticality. Once in this state, small perturbations of the system may result in chain reactions (i.e., earthquakes) which can affect any number of fault segments. This sensitivity to small perturbations is strong evidence for chaotic fault behavior, which implies that exact event prediction is not possible. However, earthquake prediction with a useful accuracy is nevertheless possible. Studies of other natural chaotic systems have shown that they may enter states of metastability, in which the system's behavior is predictable. Applying this concept to earthquake faults, these windows of metastable behavior should be characterized by periodic earthquake recurrence. The observed periodicity of the Parkfield, CA (M= 6) events may resemble such a window of metastability. I am statistically analyzing numerically generated seismic records to study these phases of periodic behavior. In this preliminary study, seismic records were generated using a model introduced by Nakanishi [Phys. Rev. A, 43, 6613-6621, 1991]. It consists of a one-dimensional chain of blocks (interconnected by springs) with a relaxation function that mimics velocity-weakened frictional behavior. The earthquakes occurring in this model show generally a power-law frequency-size distribution. However, for large events the distribution has a shoulder where the frequency of events is higher than expected from the power law. I have analyzed time-series of single block motions within the system. These time-series include

  15. Development of Final A-Fault Rupture Models for WGCEP/ NSHMP Earthquake Rate Model 2

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Field, Edward H.; Weldon, Ray J.; Parsons, Thomas; Wills, Chris J.; Dawson, Timothy E.; Stein, Ross S.; Petersen, Mark D.

    2008-01-01

    This appendix discusses how we compute the magnitude and rate of earthquake ruptures for the seven Type-A faults (Elsinore, Garlock, San Jacinto, S. San Andreas, N. San Andreas, Hayward-Rodgers Creek, and Calaveras) in the WGCEP/NSHMP Earthquake Rate Model 2 (referred to as ERM 2. hereafter). By definition, Type-A faults are those that have relatively abundant paleoseismic information (e.g., mean recurrence-interval estimates). The first section below discusses segmentation-based models, where ruptures are assumed be confined to one or more identifiable segments. The second section discusses an un-segmented-model option, the third section discusses results and implications, and we end with a discussion of possible future improvements. General background information can be found in the main report.

  16. Earthquake Recurrence along the Kuril Trench: A New View from Paleoseismology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satake, K.; Nanayama, F.

    2003-12-01

    Paleoseismological data along the Pacific coast of eastern Hokkaido indicate that unusual earthquakes have repeated at about 500 year interval with the most recent event in the 17th century. Along the Kuril trench, interplate earthquakes with rupture length of 100-200 km occurred in 1952 (Mw 8.1) and 1973 (Mw 7.8), as well as 1843 (M 8.0) and 1894 (M 7.9), which have been considered characteristics of this subduction zone. We review paleoseismological data, examine coastal deformation and tsunami inundation from fault models, and propose a model of earthquake recurrence in the Kuril subduction zone. Pleistocene marine terraces on the Pacific coast show slight net uplift, at an average of 0.1-0.4 mm/yr in the past several hundred thousand years, whereas tide-gauge data show gradual subsidence of 8-9 mm/yr since 1900. Infrequent unusual event (Armageddon) has been inferred (Ikeda, 1996) to resolve this conflict. Holocene stratigraphic and microfossil studies have indicated sea-level changes in the last 3 ka (e.g., Sawai, 2001). Each event is marked by an abrupt upward change from brackish bay deposits to freshwater peat. The youngest change has been dated in the 17th century with an estimated uplift amount of 0.5-1m (Atwater et al., 2003). Such evidence has been found along the 100 km long coast and recurred up to seven times in the last 2.5 ka (Kelsey et al., 2002). Extensive tsunami deposits indicate large prehistoric tsunamis (Nanayama et al., 2003). At Kiritappu, for instance, sand sheets extend 3 km inland, much further than historic tsunamis. Ten sheets of tsunami deposits indicate recurrence of such unusual tsunami with an average recurrence interval of about 500 years. The most recent event occurred in the 17th century. Historic documents in Honshu rules out unusual tsunamis that would cause damage along the Sanriku coast. Tsunami damage from the 1611 and 1677 earthquakes, both along the Japan trench, have been documented along the Sanriku coast. We modeled

  17. Increased Earthquake Rates in the Central and Eastern US Portend Higher Earthquake Hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Llenos, A. L.; Rubinstein, J. L.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Mueller, C. S.; Michael, A. J.; McGarr, A.; Petersen, M. D.; Weingarten, M.; Holland, A. A.

    2014-12-01

    Since 2009 the central and eastern United States has experienced an unprecedented increase in the rate of M≥3 earthquakes that is unlikely to be due to natural variation. Where the rates have increased so has the seismic hazard, making it important to understand these changes. Areas with significant seismicity increases are limited to areas where oil and gas production take place. By far the largest contributor to the seismicity increase is Oklahoma, where recent studies suggest that these rate changes may be due to fluid injection (e.g., Keranen et al., Geology, 2013; Science, 2014). Moreover, the area of increased seismicity in northern Oklahoma that began in 2013 coincides with the Mississippi Lime play, where well completions greatly increased the year before the seismicity increase. This suggests a link to oil and gas production either directly or from the disposal of significant amounts of produced water within the play. For the purpose of assessing the hazard due to these earthquakes, should they be treated differently from natural earthquakes? Previous studies suggest that induced seismicity may differ from natural seismicity in clustering characteristics or frequency-magnitude distributions (e.g., Bachmann et al., GJI, 2011; Llenos and Michael, BSSA, 2013). These differences could affect time-independent hazard computations, which typically assume that clustering and size distribution remain constant. In Oklahoma, as well as other areas of suspected induced seismicity, we find that earthquakes since 2009 tend to be considerably more clustered in space and time than before 2009. However differences between various regional and national catalogs leave unclear whether there are significant changes in magnitude distribution. Whether they are due to natural or industrial causes, the increased earthquake rates in these areas could increase the hazard in ways that are not accounted for in current hazard assessment practice. Clearly the possibility of induced

  18. Prospective Evaluation of the Global Earthquake Activity Rate Model (GEAR1) Earthquake Forecast: Preliminary Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strader, Anne; Schorlemmer, Danijel; Beutin, Thomas

    2017-04-01

    The Global Earthquake Activity Rate Model (GEAR1) is a hybrid seismicity model, constructed from a loglinear combination of smoothed seismicity from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) earthquake catalog and geodetic strain rates (Global Strain Rate Map, version 2.1). For the 2005-2012 retrospective evaluation period, GEAR1 outperformed both parent strain rate and smoothed seismicity forecasts. Since 1. October 2015, GEAR1 has been prospectively evaluated by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) testing center. Here, we present initial one-year test results of the GEAR1, GSRM and GSRM2.1, as well as localized evaluation of GEAR1 performance. The models were evaluated on the consistency in number (N-test), spatial (S-test) and magnitude (M-test) distribution of forecasted and observed earthquakes, as well as overall data consistency (CL-, L-tests). Performance at target earthquake locations was compared between models using the classical paired T-test and its non-parametric equivalent, the W-test, to determine if one model could be rejected in favor of another at the 0.05 significance level. For the evaluation period from 1. October 2015 to 1. October 2016, the GEAR1, GSRM and GSRM2.1 forecasts pass all CSEP likelihood tests. Comparative test results show statistically significant improvement of GEAR1 performance over both strain rate-based forecasts, both of which can be rejected in favor of GEAR1. Using point process residual analysis, we investigate the spatial distribution of differences in GEAR1, GSRM and GSRM2 model performance, to identify regions where the GEAR1 model should be adjusted, that could not be inferred from CSEP test results. Furthermore, we investigate whether the optimal combination of smoothed seismicity and strain rates remains stable over space and time.

  19. Models of recurrent strike-slip earthquake cycles and the state of crustal stress

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lyzenga, Gregory A.; Raefsky, Arthur; Mulligan, Stephanie G.

    1991-01-01

    Numerical models of the strike-slip earthquake cycle, assuming a viscoelastic asthenosphere coupling model, are examined. The time-dependent simulations incorporate a stress-driven fault, which leads to tectonic stress fields and earthquake recurrence histories that are mutually consistent. Single-fault simulations with constant far-field plate motion lead to a nearly periodic earthquake cycle and a distinctive spatial distribution of crustal shear stress. The predicted stress distribution includes a local minimum in stress at depths less than typical seismogenic depths. The width of this stress 'trough' depends on the magnitude of crustal stress relative to asthenospheric drag stresses. The models further predict a local near-fault stress maximum at greater depths, sustained by the cyclic transfer of strain from the elastic crust to the ductile asthenosphere. Models incorporating both low-stress and high-stress fault strength assumptions are examined, under Newtonian and non-Newtonian rheology assumptions. Model results suggest a preference for low-stress (a shear stress level of about 10 MPa) fault models, in agreement with previous estimates based on heat flow measurements and other stress indicators.

  20. Summary of November 2010 meeting to evaluate turbidite data for constraining the recurrence parameters of great Cascadia earthquakes for the update of national seismic hazard maps

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Frankel, Arthur D.

    2011-01-01

    , 1996), which were the basis for seismic provisions in the 2000 International Building Code. These hazard maps used the paleoseismic studies to constrain the recurrence rate of great CSZ earthquakes. Goldfinger and his colleagues have since collected many more deep ocean cores and done extensive analysis on the turbidite deposits that they identified in the cores (Goldfinger and others, 2003, 2008, in press; Goldfinger, 2011). Using their dating of the sediments and correlation of features in the logs of density and magnetic susceptibility between cores, they developed a detailed chronology of great earthquakes along the CSZ for the past 10,000 years (Goldfinger and others, in press). These correlations consist of attempting to match the peaks and valleys in logs of density and magnetic susceptibility between cores separated, in some cases, by hundreds of kilometers. Based on this work, Goldfinger and others (2003, 2008, in press) proposed that the turbidite evidence indicated the occurrence of great earthquakes (Mw 8) that only ruptured the southern portion of the CSZ, as well as earthquakes with about Mw 9 that ruptured the entire length of the CSZ. For the southernmost portion of the CSZ, Goldfinger and others (in press) proposed a recurrence time of Mw 8 or larger earthquakes of about 230 years. This proposed recurrence time was shorter than the 500 year time that was incorporated in one scenario in the NSHM’s. It is important to note that the hazard maps of 1996 and later also included a scenario or set of scenarios with a shorter recurrence time for Mw 8 earthquakes, using rupture zones that are distributed along the length of the CSZ (Frankel and others, 1996; Petersen and others, 2008). Originally, this scenario was meant to correspond to the idea that some of the 500-year averaged ruptures seen in the paleoseismic evidence could have been a series of Mw 8 earthquakes that occurred over a short period of time (a few decades), rather than Mw 9 earthquakes

  1. Earthquakes

    MedlinePlus

    ... Search Term(s): Main Content Home Be Informed Earthquakes Earthquakes An earthquake is the sudden, rapid shaking of the earth, ... by the breaking and shifting of underground rock. Earthquakes can cause buildings to collapse and cause heavy ...

  2. Self-organized criticality in complex systems: Applicability to the interoccurrent and recurrent statistical behavior of earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abaimov, Sergey G.

    The concept of self-organized criticality is associated with scale-invariant, fractal behavior; this concept is also applicable to earthquake systems. It is known that the interoccurrent frequency-size distribution of earthquakes in a region is scale-invariant and obeys the Gutenberg-Richter power-law dependence. Also, the interoccurrent time-interval distribution is known to obey Poissonian statistics excluding aftershocks. However, to estimate the hazard risk for a region it is necessary to know also the recurrent behavior of earthquakes at a given point on a fault. This behavior has been investigated in the literature, however, major questions remain unresolved. The reason is the small number of earthquakes in observed sequences. To overcome this difficulty this research utilizes numerical simulations of a slider-block model and a sand-pile model. Also, experimental observations of creep events on the creeping section of the San Andreas fault are processed and sequences up to 100 events are studied. Then the recurrent behavior of earthquakes at a given point on a fault or at a given fault is investigated. It is shown that both the recurrent frequency-size and the time-interval behaviors of earthquakes obey the Weibull distribution.

  3. The Impact of Frictional Healing on Stick-Slip Recurrence Interval and Stress Drop: Implications for Earthquake Scaling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Im, Kyungjae; Elsworth, Derek; Marone, Chris; Leeman, John

    2017-12-01

    Interseismic frictional healing is an essential process in the seismic cycle. Observations of both natural and laboratory earthquakes demonstrate that the magnitude of stress drop scales with the logarithm of recurrence time, which is a cornerstone of the rate and state friction (RSF) laws. However, the origin of this log linear behavior and short time "cutoff" for small recurrence intervals remains poorly understood. Here we use RSF laws to demonstrate that the back-projected time of null-healing intrinsically scales with the initial frictional state θi. We explore this behavior and its implications for (1) the short-term cutoff time of frictional healing and (2) the connection between healing rates derived from stick-slip sliding versus slide-hold-slide tests. We use a novel, continuous solution of RSF for a one-dimensional spring-slider system with inertia. The numerical solution continuously traces frictional state evolution (and healing) and shows that stick-slip cutoff time also scales with frictional state at the conclusion of the dynamic slip process θi (=Dc/Vpeak). This numerical investigation on the origins of stick-slip response is verified by comparing laboratory data for a range of peak slip velocities. Slower slip motions yield lesser magnitude of friction drop at a given time due to higher frictional state at the end of each slip event. Our results provide insight on the origin of log linear stick-slip evolution and suggest an approach to estimating the critical slip distance on faults that exhibit gradual accelerations, such as for slow earthquakes.

  4. Phenotype at diagnosis predicts recurrence rates in Crohn's disease

    PubMed Central

    Wolters, F L; Russel, M G; Sijbrandij, J; Ambergen, T; Odes, S; Riis, L; Langholz, E; Politi, P; Qasim, A; Koutroubakis, I; Tsianos, E; Vermeire, S; Freitas, J; van Zeijl, G; Hoie, O; Bernklev, T; Beltrami, M; Rodriguez, D; Stockbrügger, R W; Moum, B

    2006-01-01

    Background In Crohn's disease (CD), studies associating phenotype at diagnosis and subsequent disease activity are important for patient counselling and health care planning. Aims To calculate disease recurrence rates and to correlate these with phenotypic traits at diagnosis. Methods A prospectively assembled uniformly diagnosed European population based inception cohort of CD patients was classified according to the Vienna classification for disease phenotype at diagnosis. Surgical and non‐surgical recurrence rates throughout a 10 year follow up period were calculated. Multivariate analysis was performed to classify risk factors present at diagnosis for recurrent disease. Results A total of 358 were classified for phenotype at diagnosis, of whom 262 (73.2%) had a first recurrence and 113 patients (31.6%) a first surgical recurrence during the first 10 years after diagnosis. Patients with upper gastrointestinal disease at diagnosis had an excess risk of recurrence (hazard ratio 1.54 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13–2.10)) whereas age ⩾40 years at diagnosis was protective (hazard ratio 0.82 (95% CI 0.70–0.97)). Colonic disease was a protective characteristic for resective surgery (hazard ratio 0.38 (95% CI 0.21–0.69)). More frequent resective surgical recurrences were reported from Copenhagen (hazard ratio 3.23 (95% CI 1.32–7.89)). Conclusions A mild course of disease in terms of disease recurrence was observed in this European cohort. Phenotype at diagnosis had predictive value for disease recurrence with upper gastrointestinal disease being the most important positive predictor. A phenotypic North‐South gradient in CD may be present, illustrated by higher surgery risks in some of the Northern European centres. PMID:16361306

  5. Phenotype at diagnosis predicts recurrence rates in Crohn's disease.

    PubMed

    Wolters, F L; Russel, M G; Sijbrandij, J; Ambergen, T; Odes, S; Riis, L; Langholz, E; Politi, P; Qasim, A; Koutroubakis, I; Tsianos, E; Vermeire, S; Freitas, J; van Zeijl, G; Hoie, O; Bernklev, T; Beltrami, M; Rodriguez, D; Stockbrügger, R W; Moum, B

    2006-08-01

    In Crohn's disease (CD), studies associating phenotype at diagnosis and subsequent disease activity are important for patient counselling and health care planning. To calculate disease recurrence rates and to correlate these with phenotypic traits at diagnosis. A prospectively assembled uniformly diagnosed European population based inception cohort of CD patients was classified according to the Vienna classification for disease phenotype at diagnosis. Surgical and non-surgical recurrence rates throughout a 10 year follow up period were calculated. Multivariate analysis was performed to classify risk factors present at diagnosis for recurrent disease. A total of 358 were classified for phenotype at diagnosis, of whom 262 (73.2%) had a first recurrence and 113 patients (31.6%) a first surgical recurrence during the first 10 years after diagnosis. Patients with upper gastrointestinal disease at diagnosis had an excess risk of recurrence (hazard ratio 1.54 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-2.10)) whereas age >/=40 years at diagnosis was protective (hazard ratio 0.82 (95% CI 0.70-0.97)). Colonic disease was a protective characteristic for resective surgery (hazard ratio 0.38 (95% CI 0.21-0.69)). More frequent resective surgical recurrences were reported from Copenhagen (hazard ratio 3.23 (95% CI 1.32-7.89)). A mild course of disease in terms of disease recurrence was observed in this European cohort. Phenotype at diagnosis had predictive value for disease recurrence with upper gastrointestinal disease being the most important positive predictor. A phenotypic North-South gradient in CD may be present, illustrated by higher surgery risks in some of the Northern European centres.

  6. Recurrence rate after thoracoscopic surgery for primary spontaneous pneumothorax.

    PubMed

    Dagnegård, Hanna H; Rosén, Alice; Sartipy, Ulrik; Bergman, Per

    2017-08-01

    There is an on-going discussion regarding the recurrence rate after surgery for primary spontaneous pneumothorax by video assisted thoracic surgery (VATS) or by thoracotomy access. This study aimed to describe the recurrence rate, and to identify a possible learning curve, following surgery for primary spontaneous pneumothorax by VATS. All patients who underwent surgery for primary spontaneous pneumothorax by VATS at Karolinska University Hospital 2004-2013 were reviewed. Preoperative and operative characteristics were obtained from medical records. Patients were followed-up through telephone interviews or questionnaires and by review of medical records. The primary outcome of interest was time to recurrence of pneumothorax requiring intervention. Outcomes were compared between patients operated during 2004-June 2010 and July 2010-2013. 219 patients who underwent 234 consecutive procedures were included. The mean follow-up times were 6.3 and 2.9 years in the early and late period, respectively. The postoperative recurrence rate in the early period was 16% (11%-25%), 18% (12%-27%), and 18% (12%-27%), at 1, 3 and 5 years, compared to 1.7% (0.4%-6.8%), 7.6% (3.7%-15%), and 9.8% (4.8%-19%) at 1, 3 and 5 years, in the late period (p = 0.016). We found that the recurrence rate after thoracoscopic surgery for primary spontaneous pneumothorax decreased significantly during the study period. Our results strongly suggest that thoracoscopic surgery for pneumothorax involve a substantial learning curve.

  7. Detection of change points in underlying earthquake rates, with application to global mega-earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Touati, Sarah; Naylor, Mark; Main, Ian

    2016-02-01

    The recent spate of mega-earthquakes since 2004 has led to speculation of an underlying change in the global `background' rate of large events. At a regional scale, detecting changes in background rate is also an important practical problem for operational forecasting and risk calculation, for example due to volcanic processes, seismicity induced by fluid injection or withdrawal, or due to redistribution of Coulomb stress after natural large events. Here we examine the general problem of detecting changes in background rate in earthquake catalogues with and without correlated events, for the first time using the Bayes factor as a discriminant for models of varying complexity. First we use synthetic Poisson (purely random) and Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models (which also allow for earthquake triggering) to test the effectiveness of many standard methods of addressing this question. These fall into two classes: those that evaluate the relative likelihood of different models, for example using Information Criteria or the Bayes Factor; and those that evaluate the probability of the observations (including extreme events or clusters of events) under a single null hypothesis, for example by applying the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and `runs' tests, and a variety of Z-score tests. The results demonstrate that the effectiveness among these tests varies widely. Information Criteria worked at least as well as the more computationally expensive Bayes factor method, and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and runs tests proved to be the relatively ineffective in reliably detecting a change point. We then apply the methods tested to events at different thresholds above magnitude M ≥ 7 in the global earthquake catalogue since 1918, after first declustering the catalogue. This is most effectively done by removing likely correlated events using a much lower magnitude threshold (M ≥ 5), where triggering is much more obvious. We find no strong evidence that the background rate of large

  8. Determining earthquake recurrence intervals from deformational structures in young lacustrine sediments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sims, John D.

    1975-01-01

    Examination of the silty sediments in the lower Van Normal reservoir after the 1971 San Fernando, California earthquake revealed three zones of deformational structures in the 1-m-thick sequence of sediments exposed over about 2 km2 of the reservoir bottom. These zones are correlated with moderate earthquakes that shook the San Fernando area in 1930, 1952, and 1971. The success of this study, coupled with the experimental formation of deformational structures similar to those of the Van Norman reservoir, led to a search for similar structures in Pleistocene and Holocene lakes and lake sediments in other seismically active areas. Thus, studies have been started in Pleistocene and Holocene silty and sandy lake sediments in the Imperial Valley, southeastern California; Clear Lake, in northern California; and the Puget Sound area of Washington. The Imperial Valley study has yielded spectacular results: five zones of structures in the upper 10 m of Late Holocene sediments near Brawley have been correlated over an area of approximately 100 km2, using natural outcrops. These structures are similar to those of the Van Norman reservoir and are interpreted to represent at least five moderate to large earthquakes that affected the southern Imperial Valley area during Late Holocene time. The Clear Lake study has provided ambiguous results with respect to determination of earthquake recurrence intervals because the cores studied are in clayey rich in organic material sediments that have low liquefaction potential. A study of Late Pleistocene varved glacio-lacustrine sediments has been started in the Puget Sound area of Washington, and thirteen sites have been examined. One has yielded 18.75 m of sediments that contains 1,804 varves and fourteen deformed zones interpreted as being caused by earthquake, because they are identical to structures formed experimentally by simulated seismic shaking. Correlation of deformational structures with seismic events is based on:(1) proximity

  9. Short-term volcano-tectonic earthquake forecasts based on a moving mean recurrence time algorithm: the El Hierro seismo-volcanic crisis experience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García, Alicia; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Marrero, José M.; Ortiz, Ramón

    2016-05-01

    Under certain conditions, volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes may pose significant hazards to people living in or near active volcanic regions, especially on volcanic islands; however, hazard arising from VT activity caused by localized volcanic sources is rarely addressed in the literature. The evolution of VT earthquakes resulting from a magmatic intrusion shows some orderly behaviour that may allow the occurrence and magnitude of major events to be forecast. Thus governmental decision makers can be supplied with warnings of the increased probability of larger-magnitude earthquakes on the short-term timescale. We present here a methodology for forecasting the occurrence of large-magnitude VT events during volcanic crises; it is based on a mean recurrence time (MRT) algorithm that translates the Gutenberg-Richter distribution parameter fluctuations into time windows of increased probability of a major VT earthquake. The MRT forecasting algorithm was developed after observing a repetitive pattern in the seismic swarm episodes occurring between July and November 2011 at El Hierro (Canary Islands). From then on, this methodology has been applied to the consecutive seismic crises registered at El Hierro, achieving a high success rate in the real-time forecasting, within 10-day time windows, of volcano-tectonic earthquakes.

  10. Quasi-periodic recurrence of great and giant earthquakes in South-Central Chile inferred from lacustrine turbidite records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strasser, M.; Moernaut, J.; Van Daele, M. E.; De Batist, M. A. O.

    2017-12-01

    Coastal paleoseismic records in south-central Chile indicate that giant megathrust earthquakes -such as in AD1960 (Mw9.5)- occur on average every 300 yrs. Based on geodetic data, it was postulated that the area already has the potential for a Mw8 earthquake. However, to estimate the probability for such a great earthquake from a paleo-perspective, one needs to reconstruct the long-term recurrence pattern of megathrust earthquakes. Here, we present two long lacustrine records, comprising up to 35 earthquake-triggered turbidites over the last 4800 yrs. Calibration of turbidite extent with historical earthquake intensity reveals a different macroseismic intensity threshold (≥VII½ vs. ≥VI½) for the generation of turbidites at the coring sites. The strongest earthquakes (≥VII½) have longer recurrence intervals (292 ±93 yrs) than earthquakes with intensity of ≥VI½ (139 ±69 yrs). The coefficient of variation (CoV) of inter-event times indicate that the strongest earthquakes recur in a quasi-periodic way (CoV: 0.32) and follow a normal distribution. Including also "smaller" earthquakes (Intensity down to VI½) increases the CoV (0.5) and fits best with a Weibull distribution. Regional correlation of our multi-threshold shaking records with coastal records of tsunami and coseismic subsidence suggests that the intensity ≥VII½ events repeatedly ruptured the same part of the megathrust over a distance of at least 300 km and can be assigned to a Mw ≥ 8.6. We hypothesize that a zone of high plate locking -identified by GPS data and large slip in AD 1960- acts as a dominant regional asperity, on which elastic strain builds up over several centuries and mostly gets released in quasi-periodic great and giant earthquakes. For the next 110 yrs, we infer an enhanced probability for a Mw 7.7-8.5 earthquake whereas the probability for a Mw ≥ 8.6 (AD1960-like) earthquake remains low.

  11. Recurrent Holocene movement on the Susitna Glacier Thrust Fault: The structure that initiated the Mw 7.9 Denali Fault earthquake, central Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Personius, Stephen; Crone, Anthony J.; Burns, Patricia A.; Reitman, Nadine G.

    2017-01-01

    We conducted a trench investigation and analyzed pre‐ and postearthquake topography to determine the timing and size of prehistoric surface ruptures on the Susitna Glacier fault (SGF), the thrust fault that initiated the 2002 Mw 7.9 Denali fault earthquake sequence in central Alaska. In two of our three hand‐excavated trenches, we found clear evidence for a single pre‐2002 earthquake (penultimate earthquake [PE]) and determined an age of 2210±420  cal. B.P. (2σ) for this event. We used structure‐from‐motion software to create a pre‐2002‐earthquake digital surface model (DSM) from 1:62,800‐scale aerial photography taken in 1980 and compared this DSM with postearthquake 5‐m/pixel Interferometric Synthetic Aperature Radar topography taken in 2010. Topographic profiles measured from the pre‐earthquake DSM show features that we interpret as fault and fold scarps. These landforms were about the same size as those formed in 2002, so we infer that the PE was similar in size to the initial (Mw 7.2) subevent of the 2002 sequence. A recurrence interval of 2270 yrs and dip slip of ∼4.8  m yield a single‐interval slip rate of ∼1.8  mm/yr. The lack of evidence for pre‐PE deformation indicates probable episodic (clustering) behavior on the SGF that may be related to strain migration among other similarly oriented thrust faults that together accommodate shortening south of the Denali fault. We suspect that slip‐partitioned thrust‐triggered earthquakes may be a common occurrence on the Denali fault system, but documenting the frequency of such events will be very difficult, given the lack of long‐term paleoseismic records, the number of potential thrust‐earthquake sources, and the pervasive glacial erosion in the region.

  12. Earthquakes

    MedlinePlus

    An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...

  13. Strain rates, stress markers and earthquake clustering (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fry, B.; Gerstenberger, M.; Abercrombie, R. E.; Reyners, M.; Eberhart-Phillips, D. M.

    2013-12-01

    The 2010-present Canterbury earthquakes comprise a well-recorded sequence in a relatively low strain-rate shallow crustal region. We present new scientific results to test the hypothesis that: Earthquake sequences in low-strain rate areas experience high stress drop events, low-post seismic relaxation, and accentuated seismic clustering. This hypothesis is based on a physical description of the aftershock process in which the spatial distribution of stress accumulation and stress transfer are controlled by fault strength and orientation. Following large crustal earthquakes, time dependent forecasts are often developed by fitting parameters defined by Omori's aftershock decay law. In high-strain rate areas, simple forecast models utilizing a single p-value fit observed aftershock sequences well. In low-strain rate areas such as Canterbury, assumptions of simple Omori decay may not be sufficient to capture the clustering (sub-sequence) nature exhibited by the punctuated rise in activity following significant child events. In Canterbury, the moment release is more clustered than in more typical Omori sequences. The individual earthquakes in these clusters also exhibit somewhat higher stress drops than in the average crustal sequence in high-strain rate regions, suggesting the earthquakes occur on strong Andersonian-oriented faults, possibly juvenile or well-healed . We use the spectral ratio procedure outlined in (Viegas et al., 2010) to determine corner frequencies and Madariaga stress-drop values for over 800 events in the sequence. Furthermore, we will discuss the relevance of tomographic results of Reyners and Eberhart-Phillips (2013) documenting post-seismic stress-driven fluid processes following the three largest events in the sequence as well as anisotropic patterns in surface wave tomography (Fry et al., 2013). These tomographic studies are both compatible with the hypothesis, providing strong evidence for the presence of widespread and hydrated regional

  14. Long‐term creep rates on the Hayward Fault: evidence for controls on the size and frequency of large earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lienkaemper, James J.; McFarland, Forrest S.; Simpson, Robert W.; Bilham, Roger; Ponce, David A.; Boatwright, John; Caskey, S. John

    2012-01-01

    The Hayward fault (HF) in California exhibits large (Mw 6.5–7.1) earthquakes with short recurrence times (161±65 yr), probably kept short by a 26%–78% aseismic release rate (including postseismic). Its interseismic release rate varies locally over time, as we infer from many decades of surface creep data. Earliest estimates of creep rate, primarily from infrequent surveys of offset cultural features, revealed distinct spatial variation in rates along the fault, but no detectable temporal variation. Since the 1989 Mw 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake (LPE), monitoring on 32 alinement arrays and 5 creepmeters has greatly improved the spatial and temporal resolution of creep rate. We now identify significant temporal variations, mostly associated with local and regional earthquakes. The largest rate change was a 6‐yr cessation of creep along a 5‐km length near the south end of the HF, attributed to a regional stress drop from the LPE, ending in 1996 with a 2‐cm creep event. North of there near Union City starting in 1991, rates apparently increased by 25% above pre‐LPE levels on a 16‐km‐long reach of the fault. Near Oakland in 2007 an Mw 4.2 earthquake initiated a 1–2 cm creep event extending 10–15 km along the fault. Using new better‐constrained long‐term creep rates, we updated earlier estimates of depth to locking along the HF. The locking depths outline a single, ∼50‐km‐long locked or retarded patch with the potential for an Mw∼6.8 event equaling the 1868 HF earthquake. We propose that this inferred patch regulates the size and frequency of large earthquakes on HF.

  15. The method of treatment cessation and recurrence rate of amblyopia.

    PubMed

    Walsh, Leah A; Hahn, Erik K; LaRoche, G Robert

    2009-09-01

    To date, much of the research regarding amblyopia has been focused on which therapeutic modality is the most efficacious in amblyopia management. Unfortunately, there is a lack of research into which method of treatment cessation is the most appropriate once therapy has been completed. The purpose of this study is to investigate if the cessation method affects the recurrence rate of amblyopia. This study was a prospective randomized clinical trial of 20 subjects who were wearing full-time occlusion and were at the end point of their therapy. The subjects were randomized into one of two groups: abrupt cessation or therapy tapering. All subjects were followed for 3 consecutive 4-week intervals, for a total of 12 weeks, to assess the short-term recurrence rate of amblyopia. Subjects who were in the tapered group had their occlusion reduced from full-time occlusion (all waking hours minus one) to 50% of waking hours at study enrollment (i.e., from 12 hours/day to 6 hours per day); occlusion was reduced by an additional 50% at the first 4-week study visit (i.e., from 6 hours/day to 3 hours), with occlusion being discontinued completely at the week 8 visit. All subjects who were in the abrupt cessation group had their full-time occlusion discontinued completely at the start of the study (i.e., from 12 hours/day to none). Additional assessments were also conducted at week 26 and week 52 post-therapy cessation to determine the longer term amblyopia regression rate. For the purposes of this study, recurrence was defined as a 0.2 (10 letters) or more logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution (logMAR) loss of visual acuity. A recurrence of amblyopia occurred in 4 of 17 (24%; CI 9%-47%) participants completing the study by the week 52 study end point. There were 2 subjects from each treatment group who demonstrated a study protocol-defined recurrence. There was a 24% risk of amblyopia recurrence if therapy was discontinued abruptly or tapered in 8 weeks. In this small

  16. Earthquake models using rate and state friction and fast multipoles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tullis, T.

    2003-04-01

    The most realistic current earthquake models employ laboratory-derived non-linear constitutive laws. These are the rate and state friction laws having both a non-linear viscous or direct effect and an evolution effect in which frictional resistance depends on time of stationary contact and has a memory of past slip velocity that fades with slip. The frictional resistance depends on the log of the slip velocity as well as the log of stationary hold time, and the fading memory involves an approximately exponential decay with slip. Due to the nonlinearly of these laws, analytical earthquake models are not attainable and numerical models are needed. The situation is even more difficult if true dynamic models are sought that deal with inertial forces and slip velocities on the order of 1 m/s as are observed during dynamic earthquake slip. Additional difficulties that exist if the dynamic slip phase of earthquakes is modeled arise from two sources. First, many physical processes might operate during dynamic slip, but they are only poorly understood, the relative importance of the processes is unknown, and the processes are even more nonlinear than those described by the current rate and state laws. Constitutive laws describing such behaviors are still being developed. Second, treatment of inertial forces and the influence that dynamic stresses from elastic waves may have on slip on the fault requires keeping track of the history of slip on remote parts of the fault as far into the past as it takes waves to travel from there. This places even more stringent requirements on computer time. Challenges for numerical modeling of complete earthquake cycles are that both time steps and mesh sizes must be small. Time steps must be milliseconds during dynamic slip, and yet models must represent earthquake cycles 100 years or more in length; methods using adaptive step sizes are essential. Element dimensions need to be on the order of meters, both to approximate continuum behavior

  17. Earthquakes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pakiser, Louis C.

    One of a series of general interest publications on science topics, the booklet provides those interested in earthquakes with an introduction to the subject. Following a section presenting an historical look at the world's major earthquakes, the booklet discusses earthquake-prone geographic areas, the nature and workings of earthquakes, earthquake…

  18. Earthquakes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walter, Edward J.

    1977-01-01

    Presents an analysis of the causes of earthquakes. Topics discussed include (1) geological and seismological factors that determine the effect of a particular earthquake on a given structure; (2) description of some large earthquakes such as the San Francisco quake; and (3) prediction of earthquakes. (HM)

  19. Interseismic coupling, seismic potential and earthquake recurrence on the southern front of the Eastern Alps (NE Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheloni, Daniele; D'Agostino, Nicola; Selvaggi, Giulio

    2014-05-01

    The interaction of the African, Arabian, and Eurasia plates in the "greater" Mediterranean region yields to a broad range of tectonic processes including active subduction, continental collision, major continental strike-slip faults and "intra-plate" mountain building. In this puzzling region the convergence between Adria microplate and Eurasia plate is partly or entirely absorbed within the South-Eastern Alps, where the Adriatic lithosphere underthrusts beneath the mountain belt. Historical seismicity and instrumentally recorded earthquakes show thrust faulting on north-dipping low-angle faults in agreement with geological observations of active mountain building and active fold growing at the foothills of the South-Eastern Alps. In this study, we use continuous GPS observations to document the geodetic strain accumulation across the South-Eastern Alps (NE Italy). We estimate the pattern of interseismic coupling on the intra-continental collision north-dipping thrust faults that separate the Eastern Alps and the Venetian-Friulian plain using the back-slip approach and discuss the seismic potential and earthquake recurrence. Comparison between the rigid-rotation predicted motion and the shortening observed across the studied area indicates that the South-Eastern Alpine thrust front absorbs about 80% of the total convergence rate between the Adria microplate and Eurasia plate. The modelled thrust fault is currently locked from the surface to a depth of approximately 10 km. The transition zone between locked and creeping portions of the fault roughly corresponds with the belt of microseismicity parallel and to the north of the mountain front. The estimated moment deficit rate is 1.27±0.14×10^17 Nm/yr. The comparison between the estimated moment deficit and that released historically by the earthquakes suggests that to account for the moment deficit the following two factors or their combination should be considered: (1) a significant part of the observed

  20. Interseismic coupling, seismic potential, and earthquake recurrence on the southern front of the Eastern Alps (NE Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheloni, D.; D'Agostino, N.; Selvaggi, G.

    2014-05-01

    Here we use continuous GPS observations to document the geodetic strain accumulation across the South-Eastern Alps (NE Italy). We estimate the interseismic coupling on the intracontinental collision thrust fault and discuss the seismic potential and earthquake recurrence. We invert the GPS velocities using the back slip approach to simultaneously estimate the relative angular velocity and the degree of interseismic coupling on the thrust fault that separates the Eastern Alps and the Venetian-Friulian plain. Comparison between the rigid rotation predicted motion and the shortening observed across the area indicates that the South-Eastern Alpine thrust front absorbs about 70% of the total convergence between the Adria and Eurasia plates. The coupling is computed on a north dipping fault following the continuous external seismogenic thrust front of the South-Eastern Alps. The modeled thrust fault is currently locked from the surface to a depth of ≈10 km. The transition zone between locked and creeping portions of the fault roughly corresponds with the belt of microseismicity parallel and to the north of the mountain front. The estimated moment deficit rate is 1.3 ± 0.4 × 1017 Nm/yr. The comparison between the estimated moment deficit and that released historically by the earthquakes suggests that to account for the moment deficit the following two factors or their combination should be considered: (1) a significant part of the observed interseismic coupling is released aseismically and (2) infrequent "large" events with long return period (> 1000 years) and with magnitudes larger than the value assigned to the largest historical events (Mw≈ 6.7).

  1. Slip rate and slip magnitudes of past earthquakes along the Bogd left-lateral strike-slip fault (Mongolia)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rizza, M.; Ritz, J.-F.; Braucher, R.; Vassallo, R.; Prentice, C.; Mahan, S.; McGill, S.; Chauvet, A.; Marco, S.; Todbileg, M.; Demberel, S.; Bourles, D.

    2011-01-01

    We carried out morphotectonic studies along the left-lateral strike-slip Bogd Fault, the principal structure involved in the Gobi-Altay earthquake of 1957 December 4 (published magnitudes range from 7.8 to 8.3). The Bogd Fault is 260 km long and can be subdivided into five main geometric segments, based on variation in strike direction. West to East these segments are, respectively: the West Ih Bogd (WIB), The North Ih Bogd (NIB), the West Ih Bogd (WIB), the West Baga Bogd (WBB) and the East Baga Bogd (EBB) segments. Morphological analysis of offset streams, ridges and alluvial fans-particularly well preserved in the arid environment of the Gobi region-allows evaluation of late Quaternary slip rates along the different faults segments. In this paper, we measure slip rates over the past 200 ka at four sites distributed across the three western segments of the Bogd Fault. Our results show that the left-lateral slip rate is ~1 mm yr-1 along the WIB and EIB segments and ~0.5 mm yr-1 along the NIB segment. These variations are consistent with the restraining bend geometry of the Bogd Fault. Our study also provides additional estimates of the horizontal offset associated with the 1957 earthquake along the western part of the Bogd rupture, complementing previously published studies. We show that the mean horizontal offset associated with the 1957 earthquake decreases progressively from 5.2 m in the west to 2.0 m in the east, reflecting the progressive change of kinematic style from pure left-lateral strike-slip faulting to left-lateral-reverse faulting. Along the three western segments, we measure cumulative displacements that are multiples of the 1957 coseismic offset, which may be consistent with a characteristic slip. Moreover, using these data, we re-estimate the moment magnitude of the Gobi-Altay earthquake at Mw 7.78-7.95. Combining our slip rate estimates and the slip distribution per event we also determined a mean recurrence interval of ~2500-5200 yr for past

  2. Stress and Strain Rates from Faults Reconstructed by Earthquakes Relocalization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morra, G.; Chiaraluce, L.; Di Stefano, R.; Michele, M.; Cambiotti, G.; Yuen, D. A.; Brunsvik, B.

    2017-12-01

    Recurrence of main earthquakes on the same fault depends on kinematic setting, hosting lithologies and fault geometry and population. Northern and central Italy transitioned from convergence to post-orogenic extension. This has produced a unique and very complex tectonic setting characterized by superimposed normal faults, crossing different geologic domains, that allows to investigate a variety of seismic manifestations. In the past twenty years three seismic sequences (1997 Colfiorito, 2009 L'Aquila and 2016-17 Amatrice-Norcia-Visso) activated a 150km long normal fault system located between the central and northern apennines and allowing the recordings of thousands of seismic events. Both the 1997 and the 2009 main shocks were preceded by a series of small pre-shocks occurring in proximity to the future largest events. It has been proposed and modelled that the seismicity pattern of the two foreshocks sequences was caused by active dilatancy phenomenon, due to fluid flow in the source area. Seismic activity has continued intensively until three events with 6.0

  3. When do correlations increase with firing rates in recurrent networks?

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    A central question in neuroscience is to understand how noisy firing patterns are used to transmit information. Because neural spiking is noisy, spiking patterns are often quantified via pairwise correlations, or the probability that two cells will spike coincidentally, above and beyond their baseline firing rate. One observation frequently made in experiments, is that correlations can increase systematically with firing rate. Theoretical studies have determined that stimulus-dependent correlations that increase with firing rate can have beneficial effects on information coding; however, we still have an incomplete understanding of what circuit mechanisms do, or do not, produce this correlation-firing rate relationship. Here, we studied the relationship between pairwise correlations and firing rates in recurrently coupled excitatory-inhibitory spiking networks with conductance-based synapses. We found that with stronger excitatory coupling, a positive relationship emerged between pairwise correlations and firing rates. To explain these findings, we used linear response theory to predict the full correlation matrix and to decompose correlations in terms of graph motifs. We then used this decomposition to explain why covariation of correlations with firing rate—a relationship previously explained in feedforward networks driven by correlated input—emerges in some recurrent networks but not in others. Furthermore, when correlations covary with firing rate, this relationship is reflected in low-rank structure in the correlation matrix. PMID:28448499

  4. Global observation of Omori-law decay in the rate of triggered earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parsons, T.

    2001-12-01

    Triggered earthquakes can be large, damaging, and lethal as evidenced by the 1999 shocks in Turkey and the 2001 events in El Salvador. In this study, earthquakes with M greater than 7.0 from the Harvard CMT catalog are modeled as dislocations to calculate shear stress changes on subsequent earthquake rupture planes near enough to be affected. About 61% of earthquakes that occurred near the main shocks are associated with calculated shear stress increases, while ~39% are associated with shear stress decreases. If earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases are interpreted as triggered, then such events make up at least 8% of the CMT catalog. Globally, triggered earthquakes obey an Omori-law rate decay that lasts between ~7-11 years after the main shock. Earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases occur at higher rates than background up to 240 km away from the main-shock centroid. Earthquakes triggered by smaller quakes (foreshocks) also obey Omori's law, which is one of the few time-predictable patterns evident in the global occurrence of earthquakes. These observations indicate that earthquake probability calculations which include interactions from previous shocks should incorporate a transient Omori-law decay with time. In addition, a very simple model using the observed global rate change with time and spatial distribution of triggered earthquakes can be applied to immediately assess the likelihood of triggered earthquakes following large events, and can be in place until more sophisticated analyses are conducted.

  5. Substorm occurrence rates, substorm recurrence times, and solar wind structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borovsky, Joseph E.; Yakymenko, Kateryna

    2017-03-01

    Two collections of substorms are created: 28,464 substorms identified with jumps in the SuperMAG AL index in the years 1979-2015 and 16,025 substorms identified with electron injections into geosynchronous orbit in the years 1989-2007. Substorm occurrence rates and substorm recurrence-time distributions are examined as functions of the phase of the solar cycle, the season of the year, the Russell-McPherron favorability, the type of solar wind plasma at Earth, the geomagnetic-activity level, and as functions of various solar and solar wind properties. Three populations of substorm occurrences are seen: (1) quasiperiodically occurring substorms with recurrence times (waiting times) of 2-4 h, (2) randomly occurring substorms with recurrence times of about 6-15 h, and (3) long intervals wherein no substorms occur. A working model is suggested wherein (1) the period of periodic substorms is set by the magnetosphere with variations in the actual recurrence times caused by the need for a solar wind driving interval to occur, (2) the mesoscale structure of the solar wind magnetic field triggers the occurrence of the random substorms, and (3) the large-scale structure of the solar wind plasma is responsible for the long intervals wherein no substorms occur. Statistically, the recurrence period of periodically occurring substorms is slightly shorter when the ram pressure of the solar wind is high, when the magnetic field strength of the solar wind is strong, when the Mach number of the solar wind is low, and when the polar-cap potential saturation parameter is high.

  6. Simulate earthquake cycles on the oceanic transform faults in the framework of rate-and-state friction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, M.

    2016-12-01

    Progress towards a quantitative and predictive understanding of the earthquake behavior can be achieved by improved understanding of earthquake cycles. However, it is hindered by the long repeat times (100s to 1000s of years) of the largest earthquakes on most faults. At fast-spreading oceanic transform faults, the typical repeating time ranges from 5-20 years, making them a unique tectonic environment for studying the earthquake cycle. One important observation on OTFs is the quasi-periodicity and the spatial-temporal clustering of large earthquakes: same fault segment ruptured repeatedly at a near constant interval and nearby segments ruptured during a short time period. This has been observed on the Gofar and Discovery faults in the East Pacific Rise. Between 1992 and 2014, five clusters of M6 earthquakes occurred on the Gofar and Discovery fault system with recurrence intervals of 4-6 years. Each cluster consisted of a westward migration of seismicity from the Discovery to Gofar segment within a 2-year period, providing strong evidence for spatial-temporal clustering of large OTFs earthquakes. I simulated earthquake cycles of oceanic transform fault in the framework of rate-and-state friction, motivated by the observations at the Gofar and Discovery faults. I focus on a model with two seismic segments, each 20 km long and 5 km wide, separated by an aseismic segment of 10 km wide. This geometry is set based on aftershock locations of the 2008 M6.0 earthquake on Gofar. The repeating large earthquake on both segments are reproduced with similar magnitude as observed. I set the state parameter differently for the two seismic segments so initially they are not synchornized. Results also show that synchronization of the two seismic patches can be achieved after several earthquake cycles when the effective normal stress or the a-b parameter is smaller than surrounding aseismic areas, both having reduced the resistance to seismic rupture in the VS segment. These

  7. Empirical recurrence rates for ground motion signals on planetary surfaces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lorenz, Ralph D.; Panning, Mark

    2018-03-01

    We determine the recurrence rates of ground motion events as a function of sensed velocity amplitude at several terrestrial locations, and make a first interplanetary comparison with measurements on the Moon, Mars, Venus and Titan. This empirical approach gives an intuitive order-of-magnitude guide to the observed ground motion (including both tectonic and ocean- and atmosphere-forced signals) of these locations as a guide to instrument expectations on future missions, without invoking interior models and specific sources: for example a Venera-14 observation of possible ground motion indicates a microseismic environment mid-way between noisy and quiet terrestrial locations. Quiet terrestrial regions see a peak velocity amplitude in mm/s roughly equal to 0.3*N(-0.7), where N is the number of "events" (half-hour intervals in which a given peak ground motion is exceeded) observed per year. The Apollo data show endogenous seismic signals for a given recurrence rate that are typically about 10,000 times smaller in amplitude than a quiet site on Earth, although local thermally-induced moonquakes are much more common. Viking data masked for low-wind periods appear comparable with a quiet terrestrial site, whereas a Venera observation of microseisms suggests ground motion more similar to a more active terrestrial location. Recurrence rate plots from in-situ measurements provide a context for seismic instrumentation on future planetary missions, e.g. to guide formulation of data compression schemes. While even small geophones can discriminate terrestrial activity rates, observations with guidance accelerometers are typically too insensitive to provide meaningful constraints (i.e. a non-zero number of "events") on actual ground motion observations unless operated for very long periods.

  8. The use of earthquake rate changes as a stress meter at Kilauea volcano.

    PubMed

    Dieterich, J; Cayol, V; Okubo, P

    2000-11-23

    Stress changes in the Earth's crust are generally estimated from model calculations that use near-surface deformation as an observational constraint. But the widespread correlation of changes of earthquake activity with stress has led to suggestions that stress changes might be calculated from earthquake occurrence rates obtained from seismicity catalogues. Although this possibility has considerable appeal, because seismicity data are routinely collected and have good spatial and temporal resolution, the method has not yet proven successful, owing to the non-linearity of earthquake rate changes with respect to both stress and time. Here, however, we present two methods for inverting earthquake rate data to infer stress changes, using a formulation for the stress- and time-dependence of earthquake rates. Application of these methods at Kilauea volcano, in Hawaii, yields good agreement with independent estimates, indicating that earthquake rates can provide a practical remote-sensing stress meter.

  9. Modeling earthquake rate changes in Oklahoma and Arkansas: possible signatures of induced seismicity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.

    2013-01-01

    The rate of ML≥3 earthquakes in the central and eastern United States increased beginning in 2009, particularly in Oklahoma and central Arkansas, where fluid injection has occurred. We find evidence that suggests these rate increases are man‐made by examining the rate changes in a catalog of ML≥3 earthquakes in Oklahoma, which had a low background seismicity rate before 2009, as well as rate changes in a catalog of ML≥2.2 earthquakes in central Arkansas, which had a history of earthquake swarms prior to the start of injection in 2009. In both cases, stochastic epidemic‐type aftershock sequence models and statistical tests demonstrate that the earthquake rate change is statistically significant, and both the background rate of independent earthquakes and the aftershock productivity must increase in 2009 to explain the observed increase in seismicity. This suggests that a significant change in the underlying triggering process occurred. Both parameters vary, even when comparing natural to potentially induced swarms in Arkansas, which suggests that changes in both the background rate and the aftershock productivity may provide a way to distinguish man‐made from natural earthquake rate changes. In Arkansas we also compare earthquake and injection well locations, finding that earthquakes within 6 km of an active injection well tend to occur closer together than those that occur before, after, or far from active injection. Thus, like a change in productivity, a change in interevent distance distribution may also be an indicator of induced seismicity.

  10. Likelihood testing of seismicity-based rate forecasts of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Mueller, Charles

    2016-01-01

    Likelihood testing of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas has identified the parameters that optimize the forecasting ability of smoothed seismicity models and quantified the recent temporal stability of the spatial seismicity patterns. Use of the most recent 1-year period of earthquake data and use of 10–20-km smoothing distances produced the greatest likelihood. The likelihood that the locations of January–June 2015 earthquakes were consistent with optimized forecasts decayed with increasing elapsed time between the catalogs used for model development and testing. Likelihood tests with two additional sets of earthquakes from 2014 exhibit a strong sensitivity of the rate of decay to the smoothing distance. Marked reductions in likelihood are caused by the nonstationarity of the induced earthquake locations. Our results indicate a multiple-fold benefit from smoothed seismicity models in developing short-term earthquake rate forecasts for induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas, relative to the use of seismic source zones.

  11. Aseismic transient during the 2010-2014 seismic swarm: evidence for longer recurrence of M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes in the Pollino gap (Southern Italy)?

    PubMed

    Cheloni, Daniele; D'Agostino, Nicola; Selvaggi, Giulio; Avallone, Antonio; Fornaro, Gianfranco; Giuliani, Roberta; Reale, Diego; Sansosti, Eugenio; Tizzani, Pietro

    2017-04-12

    In actively deforming regions, crustal deformation is accommodated by earthquakes and through a variety of transient aseismic phenomena. Here, we study the 2010-2014 Pollino (Southern Italy) swarm sequence (main shock M W 5.1) located within the Pollino seismic gap, by analysing the surface deformation derived from Global Positioning System and Synthetic Aperture Radar data. Inversions of geodetic time series show that a transient slip, with the same mechanism of the main shock, started about 3-4 months before the main shock and lasted almost one year, evolving through time with acceleration phases that correlate with the rate of seismicity. The moment released by the transient slip is equivalent to M W 5.5, significantly larger than the seismic moment release revealing therefore that a significant fraction of the overall deformation is released aseismically. Our findings suggest that crustal deformation in the Pollino gap is accommodated by infrequent "large" earthquakes (M W  ≥ 6.5) and by aseismic episodes releasing a significant fraction of the accrued strain. Lower strain rates, relative to the adjacent Southern Apennines, and a mixed seismic/aseismic strain release are in favour of a longer recurrence for large magnitude earthquakes in the Pollino gap.

  12. Slip rate and slip magnitudes of past earthquakes along the Bogd left-lateral strike-slip fault (Mongolia)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Prentice, Carol S.; Rizza, M.; Ritz, J.F.; Baucher, R.; Vassallo, R.; Mahan, S.

    2011-01-01

    We carried out morphotectonic studies along the left-lateral strike-slip Bogd Fault, the principal structure involved in the Gobi-Altay earthquake of 1957 December 4 (published magnitudes range from 7.8 to 8.3). The Bogd Fault is 260 km long and can be subdivided into five main geometric segments, based on variation in strike direction. West to East these segments are, respectively: the West Ih Bogd (WIB), The North Ih Bogd (NIB), the West Ih Bogd (WIB), the West Baga Bogd (WBB) and the East Baga Bogd (EBB) segments. Morphological analysis of offset streams, ridges and alluvial fans—particularly well preserved in the arid environment of the Gobi region—allows evaluation of late Quaternary slip rates along the different faults segments. In this paper, we measure slip rates over the past 200 ka at four sites distributed across the three western segments of the Bogd Fault. Our results show that the left-lateral slip rate is∼1 mm yr–1 along the WIB and EIB segments and∼0.5 mm yr–1 along the NIB segment. These variations are consistent with the restraining bend geometry of the Bogd Fault. Our study also provides additional estimates of the horizontal offset associated with the 1957 earthquake along the western part of the Bogd rupture, complementing previously published studies. We show that the mean horizontal offset associated with the 1957 earthquake decreases progressively from 5.2 m in the west to 2.0 m in the east, reflecting the progressive change of kinematic style from pure left-lateral strike-slip faulting to left-lateral-reverse faulting. Along the three western segments, we measure cumulative displacements that are multiples of the 1957 coseismic offset, which may be consistent with a characteristic slip. Moreover, using these data, we re-estimate the moment magnitude of the Gobi-Altay earthquake at Mw 7.78–7.95. Combining our slip rate estimates and the slip distribution per event we also determined a mean recurrence interval of∼2500

  13. Detection of burst suppression patterns in EEG using recurrence rate.

    PubMed

    Liang, Zhenhu; Wang, Yinghua; Ren, Yongshao; Li, Duan; Voss, Logan; Sleigh, Jamie; Li, Xiaoli

    2014-01-01

    Burst suppression is a unique electroencephalogram (EEG) pattern commonly seen in cases of severely reduced brain activity such as overdose of general anesthesia. It is important to detect burst suppression reliably during the administration of anesthetic or sedative agents, especially for cerebral-protective treatments in various neurosurgical diseases. This study investigates recurrent plot (RP) analysis for the detection of the burst suppression pattern (BSP) in EEG. The RP analysis is applied to EEG data containing BSPs collected from 14 patients. Firstly we obtain the best selection of parameters for RP analysis. Then, the recurrence rate (RR), determinism (DET), and entropy (ENTR) are calculated. Then RR was selected as the best BSP index one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and multiple comparison tests. Finally, the performance of RR analysis is compared with spectral analysis, bispectral analysis, approximate entropy, and the nonlinear energy operator (NLEO). ANOVA and multiple comparison tests showed that the RR could detect BSP and that it was superior to other measures with the highest sensitivity of suppression detection (96.49%, P = 0.03). Tracking BSP patterns is essential for clinical monitoring in critically ill and anesthetized patients. The purposed RR may provide an effective burst suppression detector for developing new patient monitoring systems.

  14. Complexity in Size, Recurrence and Source of Historical Earthquakes and Tsunamis in Central Chile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cisternas, M.

    2013-05-01

    Central Chile has a 470-year-long written earthquake history, the longest of any part of the country. Thanks to the early and continuous Spanish settlement of this part of Chile (32°- 35° S), records document destructive earthquakes and tsunamis in 1575, 1647, 1730, 1822, 1906 and 1985. This sequence has promoted the idea that central Chile's large subduction inter-plate earthquakes recur at regular intervals of about 80 years. The last of these earthquakes, in 1985, was even forecast as filling a seismic gap on the thrust boundary between the subducting Nazca Plate and the overriding South America Plate. Following this logic, the next large earthquake in metropolitan Chile will not occur until late in the 21st century. However, here I challenge this conclusion by reporting recently discovered historical evidence in Spain, Japan, Peru, and Chile. This new evidence augments the historical catalog in central Chile, strongly suggests that one of these earthquakes previously assumed to occur on the inter-plate interface in fact occurred elsewhere, and forces the conclusion that another of these earthquakes (and its accompanying tsunami) dwarfed the others. These findings complicate the task of assessing the hazard of future earthquakes in Chile's most populated region.

  15. Thermomechanical earthquake cycle simulations with rate-and-state friction and nonlinear viscoelasticity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allison, K. L.; Dunham, E. M.

    2017-12-01

    We simulate earthquake cycles on a 2D strike-slip fault, modeling both rate-and-state fault friction and an off-fault nonlinear power-law rheology. The power-law rheology involves an effective viscosity that is a function of temperature and stress, and therefore varies both spatially and temporally. All phases of the earthquake cycle are simulated, allowing the model to spontaneously generate earthquakes, and to capture frictional afterslip and postseismic and interseismic viscous flow. We investigate the interaction between fault slip and bulk viscous flow, using experimentally-based flow laws for quartz-diorite in the crust and olivine in the mantle, representative of the Mojave Desert region in Southern California. We first consider a suite of three linear geotherms which are constant in time, with dT/dz = 20, 25, and 30 K/km. Though the simulations produce very different deformation styles in the lower crust, ranging from significant interseismc fault creep to purely bulk viscous flow, they have almost identical earthquake recurrence interval, nucleation depth, and down-dip coseismic slip limit. This indicates that bulk viscous flow and interseismic fault creep load the brittle crust similarly. The simulations also predict unrealistically high stresses in the upper crust, resulting from the fact that the lower crust and upper mantle are relatively weak far from the fault, and from the relatively small role that basal tractions on the base of the crust play in the force balance of the lithosphere. We also find that for the warmest model, the effective viscosity varies by an order of magnitude in the interseismic period, whereas for the cooler models it remains roughly constant. Because the rheology is highly sensitive to changes in temperature, in addition to the simulations with constant temperature we also consider the effect of heat generation. We capture both frictional heat generation and off-fault viscous shear heating, allowing these in turn to alter the

  16. Earthquake potential in California-Nevada implied by correlation of strain rate and seismicity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zeng, Yuehua; Petersen, Mark D.; Shen, Zheng-Kang

    2018-01-01

    Rock mechanics studies and dynamic earthquake simulations show that patterns of seismicity evolve with time through (1) accumulation phase, (2) localization phase, and (3) rupture phase. We observe a similar pattern of changes in seismicity during the past century across California and Nevada. To quantify these changes, we correlate GPS strain rates with seismicity. Earthquakes of M > 6.5 are collocated with regions of highest strain rates. By contrast, smaller magnitude earthquakes of M ≥ 4 show clear spatiotemporal changes. From 1933 to the late 1980s, earthquakes of M ≥ 4 were more diffused and broadly distributed in both high and low strain rate regions (accumulation phase). From the late 1980s to 2016, earthquakes were more concentrated within the high strain rate areas focused on the major fault strands (localization phase). In the same time period, the rate of M > 6.5 events also increased significantly in the high strain rate areas. The strong correlation between current strain rate and the later period of seismicity indicates that seismicity is closely related to the strain rate. The spatial patterns suggest that before the late 1980s, the strain rate field was also broadly distributed because of the stress shadows from previous large earthquakes. As the deformation field evolved out of the shadow in the late 1980s, strain has refocused on the major fault systems and we are entering a period of increased risk for large earthquakes in California.

  17. Earthquake Potential in California-Nevada Implied by Correlation of Strain Rate and Seismicity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Yuehua; Petersen, Mark D.; Shen, Zheng-Kang

    2018-02-01

    Rock mechanics studies and dynamic earthquake simulations show that patterns of seismicity evolve with time through (1) accumulation phase, (2) localization phase, and (3) rupture phase. We observe a similar pattern of changes in seismicity during the past century across California and Nevada. To quantify these changes, we correlate GPS strain rates with seismicity. Earthquakes of M > 6.5 are collocated with regions of highest strain rates. By contrast, smaller magnitude earthquakes of M ≥ 4 show clear spatiotemporal changes. From 1933 to the late 1980s, earthquakes of M ≥ 4 were more diffused and broadly distributed in both high and low strain rate regions (accumulation phase). From the late 1980s to 2016, earthquakes were more concentrated within the high strain rate areas focused on the major fault strands (localization phase). In the same time period, the rate of M > 6.5 events also increased significantly in the high strain rate areas. The strong correlation between current strain rate and the later period of seismicity indicates that seismicity is closely related to the strain rate. The spatial patterns suggest that before the late 1980s, the strain rate field was also broadly distributed because of the stress shadows from previous large earthquakes. As the deformation field evolved out of the shadow in the late 1980s, strain has refocused on the major fault systems and we are entering a period of increased risk for large earthquakes in California.

  18. Recurrent slow slip events as a barrier to the northward rupture propagation of the 2016 Pedernales earthquake (Central Ecuador)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaca, Sandro; Vallée, Martin; Nocquet, Jean-Mathieu; Battaglia, Jean; Régnier, Marc

    2018-01-01

    The northern Ecuador segment of the Nazca/South America subduction zone shows spatially heterogeneous interseismic coupling. Two highly coupled zones (0.4° S-0.35° N and 0.8° N-4.0° N) are separated by a low coupled area, hereafter referred to as the Punta Galera-Mompiche Zone (PGMZ). Large interplate earthquakes repeatedly occurred within the coupled zones in 1958 (Mw 7.7) and 1979 (Mw 8.1) for the northern patch and in 1942 (Mw 7.8) and 2016 (Mw 7.8) for the southern patch, while the whole segment is thought to have rupture during the 1906 Mw 8.4-8.8 great earthquake. We find that during the last decade, the PGMZ has experienced regular and frequent seismic swarms. For the best documented sequence (December 2013-January 2014), a joint seismological and geodetic analysis reveals a six-week-long Slow Slip Event (SSE) associated with a seismic swarm. During this period, the microseismicity is organized into families of similar earthquakes spatially and temporally correlated with the evolution of the aseismic slip. The moment release (3.4 × 1018 Nm, Mw 6.3), over a 60 × 40 km area, is considerably larger than the moment released by earthquakes (5.8 × 1015 Nm, Mw 4.4) during the same time period. In 2007-2008, a similar seismic-aseismic episode occurred, with higher magnitudes both for the seismic and aseismic processes. Cross-correlation analyses of the seismic waveforms over a 15 years-long period further suggest a 2-year repeat time for seismic swarms, which also implies that SSEs recurrently affect this area. Such SSEs contribute to release the accumulated stress, likely explaining why the 2016 Pedernales earthquake did not propagate northward into the PGMZ.

  19. Dating Informed Correlations and Large Earthquake Recurrence at the Hokuri Creek Paleoseismic Site, Alpine Fault, South Island, New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biasi, G. P.; Clark, K.; Berryman, K. R.; Cochran, U. A.; Prior, C.

    2010-12-01

    -correlate sections at the site. Within a series of dates from a section, ordering with intrinsic precision of the dates indicates an uncertainty at event horizons on the order of 50 years, while the transitions from peat to silt indicating an earthquake are separated by several times this amount. The effect is to create a stair-stepping date sequence that often allows us to link sections and improve dating resolution in both sections. The combined section provides clear evidence for at least 18 earthquake-induced cycles. Event recurrence would be about 390 years in a simple average. Internal evidence and close examination of date sequences provide preliminary indications of as many as 22 earthquakes could be represented at Hokuri Creek, and a recurrence interval of ~320 years. Both sequences indicate a middle sequence from 3800 to 1000 BC in which recurrence intervals are resolvably longer than average. Variability in recurrence is relatively small - relatively few intervals are even >1.5x the average. This indicates that large earthquakes on the Alpine Fault of South Island, New Zealand are best fit by a time-predictable model.

  20. Earthquake cycle simulations with rate-and-state friction and power-law viscoelasticity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allison, Kali L.; Dunham, Eric M.

    2018-05-01

    We simulate earthquake cycles with rate-and-state fault friction and off-fault power-law viscoelasticity for the classic 2D antiplane shear problem of a vertical, strike-slip plate boundary fault. We investigate the interaction between fault slip and bulk viscous flow with experimentally-based flow laws for quartz-diorite and olivine for the crust and mantle, respectively. Simulations using three linear geotherms (dT/dz = 20, 25, and 30 K/km) produce different deformation styles at depth, ranging from significant interseismic fault creep to purely bulk viscous flow. However, they have almost identical earthquake recurrence interval, nucleation depth, and down-dip coseismic slip limit. Despite these similarities, variations in the predicted surface deformation might permit discrimination of the deformation mechanism using geodetic observations. Additionally, in the 25 and 30 K/km simulations, the crust drags the mantle; the 20 K/km simulation also predicts this, except within 10 km of the fault where the reverse occurs. However, basal tractions play a minor role in the overall force balance of the lithosphere, at least for the flow laws used in our study. Therefore, the depth-integrated stress on the fault is balanced primarily by shear stress on vertical, fault-parallel planes. Because strain rates are higher directly below the fault than far from it, stresses are also higher. Thus, the upper crust far from the fault bears a substantial part of the tectonic load, resulting in unrealistically high stresses. In the real Earth, this might lead to distributed plastic deformation or formation of subparallel faults. Alternatively, fault pore pressures in excess of hydrostatic and/or weakening mechanisms such as grain size reduction and thermo-mechanical coupling could lower the strength of the ductile fault root in the lower crust and, concomitantly, off-fault upper crustal stresses.

  1. Clinical Perineal Streptococcal Infection in Children: Epidemiologic Features, Low Symptomatic Recurrence Rate after Treatment, and Risk Factors for Recurrence.

    PubMed

    Clegg, Herbert William; Giftos, Peter Michael; Anderson, William Edward; Kaplan, Edward Lawrence; Johnson, Dwight Richard

    2015-09-01

    To evaluate the epidemiology of perineal streptococcal infection and recurrence rates following amoxicillin treatment. We used laboratory logs in a single pediatric practice to identify patients 0-18 years of age with perineal cultures positive for group A Streptococcus (GAS) and reviewed their medical charts. We described epidemiologic features, determined recurrence rates following antibiotic treatment, and performed a case-control study to identify possible risk factors for recurrence in patients treated with amoxicillin. We found a perineal streptococcal infection rate of 4.6 per 10,000 patient encounters and a recurrence rate in 157 patients with perineal streptococcal infection of 12.4% after amoxicillin. In male patients, the predominant site of involvement was the perianal region (86%), and for female patients, the perivaginal area (62%). Nearly 80% of patients were 2-7 years of age (range 18 days-12.5 years). Perineal streptococcal infection and GAS pharyngitis followed a similar seasonal pattern of occurrence with 65% of perineal streptococcal infection occurring October through March. In patients with perineal streptococcal infection, 95% had a concomitant pharyngeal culture positive for GAS. Best predictive factors for recurrence after amoxicillin were longer duration of symptoms prior to diagnosis and having a sibling with perineal streptococcal infection at some time before or after the initial episode. Following treatment with amoxicillin, we found a low recurrence rate of 12.4%. Amoxicillin can be expected to be reliable first-line therapy for perineal streptococcal infection. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. The Non-Regularity of Earthquake Recurrence in California: Lessons From Long Paleoseismic Records in Simple vs Complex Fault Regions (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rockwell, T. K.

    2010-12-01

    A long paleoseismic record at Hog Lake on the central San Jacinto fault (SJF) in southern California documents evidence for 18 surface ruptures in the past 3.8-4 ka. This yields a long-term recurrence interval of about 210 years, consistent with its slip rate of ~16 mm/yr and field observations of 3-4 m of displacement per event. However, during the past 3800 years, the fault has switched from a quasi-periodic mode of earthquake production, during which the recurrence interval is similar to the long-term average, to clustered behavior with the inter-event periods as short as a few decades. There are also some periods as long as 450 years during which there were no surface ruptures, and these periods are commonly followed by one to several closely-timed ruptures. The coefficient of variation (CV) for the timing of these earthquakes is about 0.6 for the past 4000 years (17 intervals). Similar behavior has been observed on the San Andreas Fault (SAF) south of the Transverse Ranges where clusters of earthquakes have been followed by periods of lower seismic production, and the CV is as high as 0.7 for some portions of the fault. In contrast, the central North Anatolian Fault (NAF) in Turkey, which ruptured in 1944, appears to have produced ruptures with similar displacement at fairly regular intervals for the past 1600 years. With a CV of 0.16 for timing, and close to 0.1 for displacement, the 1944 rupture segment near Gerede appears to have been both periodic and characteristic. The SJF and SAF are part of a broad plate boundary system with multiple parallel strands with significant slip rates. Additional faults lay to the east (Eastern California shear zone) and west (faults of the LA basin and southern California Borderland), which makes the southern SAF system a complex and broad plate boundary zone. In comparison, the 1944 rupture section of the NAF is simple, straight and highly localized, which contrasts with the complex system of parallel faults in southern

  3. Earthquake!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hernandez, Hildo

    2000-01-01

    Examines the types of damage experienced by California State University at Northridge during the 1994 earthquake and what lessons were learned in handling this emergency are discussed. The problem of loose asbestos is addressed. (GR)

  4. Slip-accumulation patterns and earthquake recurrences along the Talas-Fergana Fault - Contributions of high-resolution geomorphic offsets.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rizza, M.; Dubois, C.; Fleury, J.; Abdrakhmatov, K.; Pousse, L.; Baikulov, S.; Vezinet, A.

    2017-12-01

    In the western Tien-Shan Range, the largest intracontinental strike-slip fault is the Karatau-Talas Fergana Fault system. This dextral fault system is subdivided into two main segments: the Karatau fault to the north and the Talas-Fergana fault (TFF) to the south. Kinematics and rates of deformation for the TFF during the Quaternary period are still debated and are poorly constrained. Only a few paleoseismological investigations are availabe along the TFF (Burtman et al., 1996; Korjenkov et al., 2010) and no systematic quantifications of the dextral displacements along the TFF has been undertaken. As such, the appraisal of the TFF behavior demands new tectonic information. In this study, we present the first detailed analysis of the morphology and the segmentation of the TFF and an offset inventory of morphological markers along the TFF. To discuss temporal and spatial recurrence patterns of slip accumulated over multiple seismic events, our study focused on a 60 km-long section of the TFF (Chatkal segment). Using tri-stereo Pleiades satellite images, high-resolution DEMs (1*1 m pixel size) have been generated in order to (i) analyze the fine-scale fault geometry and (ii) thoroughly measure geomorphic offsets. Photogrammetry data obtained from our drone survey on high interest sites, provide higher-resolution DEMs of 0.5 * 0.5 m pixel size.Our remote sensing mapping allows an unprecedented subdivision - into five distinct segments - of the study area. About 215 geomorphic markers have been measured and offsets range from 4.5m to 180 m. More than 80% of these offsets are smaller than 60 m, suggesting landscape reset during glacial maximum. Calculations of Cumulative Offset Probability Density (COPD) for the whole 60 km-long section as well as for each segments support distinct behavior from a segment to another and thus variability in slip-accumulation patterns. Our data argue for uniform slip model behavior along this section of the TFF. Moreover, we excavated a

  5. The August 2011 Virginia and Colorado Earthquake Sequences: Does Stress Drop Depend on Strain Rate?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abercrombie, R. E.; Viegas, G.

    2011-12-01

    Our preliminary analysis of the August 2011 Virginia earthquake sequence finds the earthquakes to have high stress drops, similar to those of recent earthquakes in NE USA, while those of the August 2011 Trinidad, Colorado, earthquakes are moderate - in between those typical of interplate (California) and the east coast. These earthquakes provide an unprecedented opportunity to study such source differences in detail, and hence improve our estimates of seismic hazard. Previously, the lack of well-recorded earthquakes in the eastern USA severely limited our resolution of the source processes and hence the expected ground accelerations. Our preliminary findings are consistent with the idea that earthquake faults strengthen during longer recurrence times and intraplate faults fail at higher stress (and produce higher ground accelerations) than their interplate counterparts. We use the empirical Green's function (EGF) method to calculate source parameters for the Virginia mainshock and three larger aftershocks, and for the Trinidad mainshock and two larger foreshocks using IRIS-available stations. We select time windows around the direct P and S waves at the closest stations and calculate spectral ratios and source time functions using the multi-taper spectral approach (eg. Viegas et al., JGR 2010). Our preliminary results show that the Virginia sequence has high stress drops (~100-200 MPa, using Madariaga (1976) model), and the Colorado sequence has moderate stress drops (~20 MPa). These numbers are consistent with previous work in the regions, for example the Au Sable Forks (2002) earthquake, and the 2010 Germantown (MD) earthquake. We also calculate the radiated seismic energy and find the energy/moment ratio to be high for the Virginia earthquakes, and moderate for the Colorado sequence. We observe no evidence of a breakdown in constant stress drop scaling in this limited number of earthquakes. We extend our analysis to a larger number of earthquakes and stations

  6. Influence of fluctuations of historic water bodies on fault stability and earthquake recurrence interval: The Dead Sea Rift as a case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belferman, Mariana; Katsman, Regina; Agnon, Amotz; Ben-Avraham, Zvi

    2017-04-01

    Despite the global, social and scientific impact of earthquakes, their triggering mechanisms remain often poorly defined. We suggest that dynamic changes in the levels of the historic water bodies occupying tectonic depressions at the Dead Sea Rift cause significant variations in the shallow crustal stress field and affect local fault systems in a way that may promote or suppress earthquakes. This mechanism and its spatial and temporal scales differ from those in tectonically-driven deformations. We use analytical and numerical poroelastic models to simulate immediate and delayed seismic responses resulting from the observed historic water level changes. The role of variability in the poroelastic and the elastic properties of the rocks composing the upper crust in inducing or retarding deformations under a strike-slip faulting regime is studied. The solution allows estimating a possible reduction in a seismic recurrence interval. Considering the historic water level fluctuation, our preliminary simulations show a promising agreement with paleo-seismic rates identified in the field.

  7. Implementation into earthquake sequence simulations of a rate- and state-dependent friction law incorporating pressure solution creep

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noda, H.

    2016-05-01

    Pressure solution creep (PSC) is an important elementary process in rock friction at high temperatures where solubilities of rock-forming minerals are significantly large. It significantly changes the frictional resistance and enhances time-dependent strengthening. A recent microphysical model for PSC-involved friction of clay-quartz mixtures, which can explain a transition between dilatant and non-dilatant deformation (d-nd transition), was modified here and implemented in dynamic earthquake sequence simulations. The original model resulted in essentially a kind of rate- and state-dependent friction (RSF) law, but assumed a constant friction coefficient for clay resulting in zero instantaneous rate dependency in the dilatant regime. In this study, an instantaneous rate dependency for the clay friction coefficient was introduced, consistent with experiments, resulting in a friction law suitable for earthquake sequence simulations. In addition, a term for time-dependent strengthening due to PSC was added which makes the friction law logarithmically rate-weakening in the dilatant regime. The width of the zone in which clasts overlap or, equivalently, the interface porosity involved in PSC plays a role as the state variable. Such a concrete physical meaning of the state variable is a great advantage in future modelling studies incorporating other physical processes such as hydraulic effects. Earthquake sequence simulations with different pore pressure distributions demonstrated that excess pore pressure at depth causes deeper rupture propagation with smaller slip per event and a shorter recurrence interval. The simulated ruptures were arrested a few kilometres below the point of pre-seismic peak stress at the d-nd transition and did not propagate spontaneously into the region of pre-seismic non-dilatant deformation. PSC weakens the fault against slow deformation and thus such a region cannot produce a dynamic stress drop. Dynamic rupture propagation further down to

  8. A 667 year record of coseismic and interseismic Coulomb stress changes in central Italy reveals the role of fault interaction in controlling irregular earthquake recurrence intervals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wedmore, L. N. J.; Faure Walker, J. P.; Roberts, G. P.; Sammonds, P. R.; McCaffrey, K. J. W.; Cowie, P. A.

    2017-07-01

    Current studies of fault interaction lack sufficiently long earthquake records and measurements of fault slip rates over multiple seismic cycles to fully investigate the effects of interseismic loading and coseismic stress changes on the surrounding fault network. We model elastic interactions between 97 faults from 30 earthquakes since 1349 A.D. in central Italy to investigate the relative importance of co-seismic stress changes versus interseismic stress accumulation for earthquake occurrence and fault interaction. This region has an exceptionally long, 667 year record of historical earthquakes and detailed constraints on the locations and slip rates of its active normal faults. Of 21 earthquakes since 1654, 20 events occurred on faults where combined coseismic and interseismic loading stresses were positive even though 20% of all faults are in "stress shadows" at any one time. Furthermore, the Coulomb stress on the faults that experience earthquakes is statistically different from a random sequence of earthquakes in the region. We show how coseismic Coulomb stress changes can alter earthquake interevent times by 103 years, and fault length controls the intensity of this effect. Static Coulomb stress changes cause greater interevent perturbations on shorter faults in areas characterized by lower strain (or slip) rates. The exceptional duration and number of earthquakes we model enable us to demonstrate the importance of combining long earthquake records with detailed knowledge of fault geometries, slip rates, and kinematics to understand the impact of stress changes in complex networks of active faults.

  9. Earthquake Rate Model 2 of the 2007 Working Group for California Earthquake Probabilities, Magnitude-Area Relationships

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stein, Ross S.

    2008-01-01

    The Working Group for California Earthquake Probabilities must transform fault lengths and their slip rates into earthquake moment-magnitudes. First, the down-dip coseismic fault dimension, W, must be inferred. We have chosen the Nazareth and Hauksson (2004) method, which uses the depth above which 99% of the background seismicity occurs to assign W. The product of the observed or inferred fault length, L, with the down-dip dimension, W, gives the fault area, A. We must then use a scaling relation to relate A to moment-magnitude, Mw. We assigned equal weight to the Ellsworth B (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 2003) and Hanks and Bakun (2007) equations. The former uses a single logarithmic relation fitted to the M=6.5 portion of data of Wells and Coppersmith (1994); the latter uses a bilinear relation with a slope change at M=6.65 (A=537 km2) and also was tested against a greatly expanded dataset for large continental transform earthquakes. We also present an alternative power law relation, which fits the newly expanded Hanks and Bakun (2007) data best, and captures the change in slope that Hanks and Bakun attribute to a transition from area- to length-scaling of earthquake slip. We have not opted to use the alternative relation for the current model. The selections and weights were developed by unanimous consensus of the Executive Committee of the Working Group, following an open meeting of scientists, a solicitation of outside opinions from additional scientists, and presentation of our approach to the Scientific Review Panel. The magnitude-area relations and their assigned weights are unchanged from that used in Working Group (2003).

  10. Absence of earthquake correlation with Earth tides: An indication of high preseismic fault stress rate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vidale, J.E.; Agnew, D.C.; Johnston, M.J.S.; Oppenheimer, D.H.

    1998-01-01

    Because the rate of stress change from the Earth tides exceeds that from tectonic stress accumulation, tidal triggering of earthquakes would be expected if the final hours of loading of the fault were at the tectonic rate and if rupture began soon after the achievement of a critical stress level. We analyze the tidal stresses and stress rates on the fault planes and at the times of 13,042 earthquakes which are so close to the San Andreas and Calaveras faults in California that we may take the fault plane to be known. We find that the stresses and stress rates from Earth tides at the times of earthquakes are distributed in the same way as tidal stresses and stress rates at random times. While the rate of earthquakes when the tidal stress promotes failure is 2% higher than when the stress does not, this difference in rate is not statistically significant. This lack of tidal triggering implies that preseismic stress rates in the nucleation zones of earthquakes are at least 0.15 bar/h just preceding seismic failure, much above the long-term tectonic stress rate of 10-4 bar/h.

  11. Paleoseismic investigations in the Santa Cruz mountains, California: Implications for recurrence of large-magnitude earthquakes on the San Andreas fault

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schwartz, D.P.; Pantosti, D.; Okumura, K.; Powers, T.J.; Hamilton, J.C.

    1998-01-01

    Trenching, microgeomorphic mapping, and tree ring analysis provide information on timing of paleoearthquakes and behavior of the San Andreas fault in the Santa Cruz mountains. At the Grizzly Flat site alluvial units dated at 1640-1659 A.D., 1679-1894 A.D., 1668-1893 A.D., and the present ground surface are displaced by a single event. This was the 1906 surface rupture. Combined trench dates and tree ring analysis suggest that the penultimate event occurred in the mid-1600s, possibly in an interval as narrow as 1632-1659 A.D. There is no direct evidence in the trenches for the 1838 or 1865 earthquakes, which have been proposed as occurring on this part of the fault zone. In a minimum time of about 340 years only one large surface faulting event (1906) occurred at Grizzly Flat, in contrast to previous recurrence estimates of 95-110 years for the Santa Cruz mountains segment. Comparison with dates of the penultimate San Andreas earthquake at sites north of San Francisco suggests that the San Andreas fault between Point Arena and the Santa Cruz mountains may have failed either as a sequence of closely timed earthquakes on adjacent segments or as a single long rupture similar in length to the 1906 rupture around the mid-1600s. The 1906 coseismic geodetic slip and the late Holocene geologic slip rate on the San Francisco peninsula and southward are about 50-70% and 70% of their values north of San Francisco, respectively. The slip gradient along the 1906 rupture section of the San Andreas reflects partitioning of plate boundary slip onto the San Gregorio, Sargent, and other faults south of the Golden Gate. If a mid-1600s event ruptured the same section of the fault that failed in 1906, it supports the concept that long strike-slip faults can contain master rupture segments that repeat in both length and slip distribution. Recognition of a persistent slip rate gradient along the northern San Andreas fault and the concept of a master segment remove the requirement that

  12. Break of slope in earthquake size distribution and creep rate along the San Andreas Fault system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shebalin, P.; Narteau, C.; Vorobieva, I.

    2017-12-01

    Crustal faults accommodate slip either by a succession of earthquakes or continuous slip, andin most instances, both these seismic and aseismic processes coexist. Recorded seismicity and geodeticmeasurements are therefore two complementary data sets that together document ongoing deformationalong active tectonic structures. Here we study the influence of stable sliding on earthquake statistics.We show that creep along the San Andreas Fault is responsible for a break of slope in the earthquake sizedistribution. This slope increases with an increasing creep rate for larger magnitude ranges, whereas itshows no systematic dependence on creep rate for smaller magnitude ranges. This is interpreted as a deficitof large events under conditions of faster creep where seismic ruptures are less likely to propagate. Theseresults suggest that the earthquake size distribution does not only depend on the level of stress but also onthe type of deformation.

  13. Tectonic controls on earthquake size distribution and seismicity rate: slab buoyancy and slab bending

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishikawa, T.; Ide, S.

    2014-12-01

    There are clear variations in maximum earthquake magnitude among Earth's subduction zones. These variations have been studied extensively and attributed to differences in tectonic properties in subduction zones, such as relative plate velocity and subducting plate age [Ruff and Kanamori, 1980]. In addition to maximum earthquake magnitude, the seismicity of medium to large earthquakes also differs among subduction zones, such as the b-value (i.e., the slope of the earthquake size distribution) and the frequency of seismic events. However, the casual relationship between the seismicity of medium to large earthquakes and subduction zone tectonics has been unclear. Here we divide Earth's subduction zones into over 100 study regions following Ide [2013] and estimate b-values and the background seismicity rate—the frequency of seismic events excluding aftershocks—for subduction zones worldwide using the maximum likelihood method [Utsu, 1965; Aki, 1965] and the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model [Ogata, 1988]. We demonstrate that the b-value varies as a function of subducting plate age and trench depth, and that the background seismicity rate is related to the degree of slab bending at the trench. Large earthquakes tend to occur relatively frequently (lower b-values) in shallower subduction zones with younger slabs, and more earthquakes occur in subduction zones with deeper trench and steeper dip angle. These results suggest that slab buoyancy, which depends on subducting plate age, controls the earthquake size distribution, and that intra-slab faults due to slab bending, which increase with the steepness of the slab dip angle, have influence on the frequency of seismic events, because they produce heterogeneity in plate coupling and efficiently inject fluid to elevate pore fluid pressure on the plate interface. This study reveals tectonic factors that control earthquake size distribution and seismicity rate, and these relationships between seismicity and

  14. Laboratory-based maximum slip rates in earthquake rupture zones and radiated energy

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGarr, A.; Fletcher, Joe B.; Boettcher, M.; Beeler, N.; Boatwright, J.

    2010-01-01

    Laboratory stick-slip friction experiments indicate that peak slip rates increase with the stresses loading the fault to cause rupture. If this applies also to earthquake fault zones, then the analysis of rupture processes is simplified inasmuch as the slip rates depend only on the local yield stress and are independent of factors specific to a particular event, including the distribution of slip in space and time. We test this hypothesis by first using it to develop an expression for radiated energy that depends primarily on the seismic moment and the maximum slip rate. From laboratory results, the maximum slip rate for any crustal earthquake, as well as various stress parameters including the yield stress, can be determined based on its seismic moment and the maximum slip within its rupture zone. After finding that our new equation for radiated energy works well for laboratory stick-slip friction experiments, we used it to estimate radiated energies for five earthquakes with magnitudes near 2 that were induced in a deep gold mine, an M 2.1 repeating earthquake near the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD) site and seven major earthquakes in California and found good agreement with energies estimated independently from spectra of local and regional ground-motion data. Estimates of yield stress for the earthquakes in our study range from 12 MPa to 122 MPa with a median of 64 MPa. The lowest value was estimated for the 2004 M 6 Parkfield, California, earthquake whereas the nearby M 2.1 repeating earthquake, as recorded in the SAFOD pilot hole, showed a more typical yield stress of 64 MPa.

  15. Structural Constraints and Earthquake Recurrence Estimates for the West Tahoe-Dollar Point Fault, Lake Tahoe Basin, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maloney, J. M.; Driscoll, N. W.; Kent, G.; Brothers, D. S.; Baskin, R. L.; Babcock, J. M.; Noble, P. J.; Karlin, R. E.

    2011-12-01

    Previous work in the Lake Tahoe Basin (LTB), California, identified the West Tahoe-Dollar Point Fault (WTDPF) as the most hazardous fault in the region. Onshore and offshore geophysical mapping delineated three segments of the WTDPF extending along the western margin of the LTB. The rupture patterns between the three WTDPF segments remain poorly understood. Fallen Leaf Lake (FLL), Cascade Lake, and Emerald Bay are three sub-basins of the LTB, located south of Lake Tahoe, that provide an opportunity to image primary earthquake deformation along the WTDPF and associated landslide deposits. We present results from recent (June 2011) high-resolution seismic CHIRP surveys in FLL and Cascade Lake, as well as complete multibeam swath bathymetry coverage of FLL. Radiocarbon dates obtained from the new piston cores acquired in FLL provide age constraints on the older FLL slide deposits and build on and complement previous work that dated the most recent event (MRE) in Fallen Leaf Lake at ~4.1-4.5 k.y. BP. The CHIRP data beneath FLL image slide deposits that appear to correlate with contemporaneous slide deposits in Emerald Bay and Lake Tahoe. A major slide imaged in FLL CHIRP data is slightly younger than the Tsoyowata ash (7950-7730 cal yrs BP) identified in sediment cores and appears synchronous with a major Lake Tahoe slide deposit (7890-7190 cal yrs BP). The equivalent age of these slides suggests the penultimate earthquake on the WTDPF may have triggered them. If correct, we postulate a recurrence interval of ~3-4 k.y. These results suggest the FLL segment of the WTDPF is near its seismic recurrence cycle. Additionally, CHIRP profiles acquired in Cascade Lake image the WTDPF for the first time in this sub-basin, which is located near the transition zone between the FLL and Rubicon Point Sections of the WTDPF. We observe two fault-strands trending N45°W across southern Cascade Lake for ~450 m. The strands produce scarps of ~5 m and ~2.7 m, respectively, on the lake

  16. Physiological growth hormone replacement and rate of recurrence of craniopharyngioma: the Genentech National Cooperative Growth Study.

    PubMed

    Smith, Timothy R; Cote, David J; Jane, John A; Laws, Edward R

    2016-10-01

    OBJECTIVE The object of this study was to establish recurrence rates in patients with craniopharyngioma postoperatively treated with recombinant human growth hormone (rhGH) as a basis for determining the risk of rhGH therapy in the development of recurrent tumor. METHODS The study included 739 pediatric patients with craniopharyngioma who were naïve to GH upon entering the Genentech National Cooperative Growth Study (NCGS) for treatment. Reoperation for tumor recurrence was documented as an adverse event. Cox proportional-hazards regression models were developed for time to recurrence, using age as the outcome and enrollment date as the predictor. Patients without recurrence were treated as censored. Multivariate logistic regression was used to examine the incidence of recurrence with adjustment for the amount of time at risk. RESULTS Fifty recurrences in these 739 surgically treated patients were recorded. The overall craniopharyngioma recurrence rate in the NCGS was 6.8%, with a median follow-up time of 4.3 years (range 0.7-6.4 years.). Age at the time of study enrollment was statistically significant according to both Cox (p = 0.0032) and logistic (p < 0.001) models, with patients under 9 years of age more likely to suffer recurrence (30 patients [11.8%], 0.025 recurrences/yr of observation, p = 0.0097) than those ages 9-13 years (17 patients [6.0%], 0.17 recurrences/yr of observation) and children older than 13 years (3 patients [1.5%], 0.005 recurrences/yr of observation). CONCLUSIONS Physiological doses of GH do not appear to increase the recurrence rate of craniopharyngioma after surgery in children, but long-term follow-up of GH-treated patients is required to establish a true natural history in the GH treatment era.

  17. Space-Time Earthquake Rate Models for One-Year Hazard Forecasts in Oklahoma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Llenos, A. L.; Michael, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    The recent one-year seismic hazard assessments for natural and induced seismicity in the central and eastern US (CEUS) (Petersen et al., 2016, 2017) rely on earthquake rate models based on declustered catalogs (i.e., catalogs with foreshocks and aftershocks removed), as is common practice in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. However, standard declustering can remove over 90% of some induced sequences in the CEUS. Some of these earthquakes may still be capable of causing damage or concern (Petersen et al., 2015, 2016). The choices of whether and how to decluster can lead to seismicity rate estimates that vary by up to factors of 10-20 (Llenos and Michael, AGU, 2016). Therefore, in order to improve the accuracy of hazard assessments, we are exploring ways to make forecasts based on full, rather than declustered, catalogs. We focus on Oklahoma, where earthquake rates began increasing in late 2009 mainly in central Oklahoma and ramped up substantially in 2013 with the expansion of seismicity into northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. We develop earthquake rate models using the space-time Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, JASA, 1988; Ogata, AISM, 1998; Zhuang et al., JASA, 2002), which characterizes both the background seismicity rate as well as aftershock triggering. We examine changes in the model parameters over time, focusing particularly on background rate, which reflects earthquakes that are triggered by external driving forces such as fluid injection rather than other earthquakes. After the model parameters are fit to the seismicity data from a given year, forecasts of the full catalog for the following year can then be made using a suite of 100,000 ETAS model simulations based on those parameters. To evaluate this approach, we develop pseudo-prospective yearly forecasts for Oklahoma from 2013-2016 and compare them with the observations using standard Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability tests for consistency.

  18. High-powered microwave ablation of larger hepatocellular carcinoma: evaluation of recurrence rate and factors related to recurrence.

    PubMed

    Zhang, N N; Lu, W; Cheng, X J; Liu, J Y; Zhou, Y H; Li, F

    2015-11-01

    To evaluate the safety and efficacy of high-powered (80-100 W) percutaneous microwave ablation (MWA) at a frequency of 2450±10 MHz for treating larger hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and to predict the risk factors of local recurrence after high-powered MWA. The study was approved by the Institutional Review Board, and informed consent was waived because of the retrospective study design. Forty-five patients with a total of 60 lesions received high-power (80-100 W) MWA at a frequency of 2450±10 MHz through a percutaneous approach that was guided by ultrasound. Of the 60 lesions with a maximum tumour measuring 3-8 cm, 46 lesions were 3-5 cm and 14 were 5-8 cm. The complete ablation rates, local recurrence rates, complications, and short-term survival were analysed. Ten possible risk factors for local recurrence were analysed. The complete ablation rates were 82.61% for the first ablation and 100% for the second ablation for 3-5 cm lesions. The complete ablation rates were 64.29% (82.61% versus 64.29%, p=0.037) for the first ablation and 85.71% (100% versus 85.71%, p=0.055) for the second ablation for 5-8 cm lesions. Local recurrence was observed in 11 out of the 45 (24.44%) successfully treated patients. The 1-year and 2-year survival rates were 95.56% (43/45) and 86.67% (39/45), respectively. No procedure-related mortality was observed and no major bleeding, liver rupture, or liver abscesses occurred. Univariate analysis showed that a positive correlation existed between the number of lesions (p=0.022), proximity to the risk area (p=0.001), pre-ablation alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels (p=0.025), hepatitis B virus (HBV)-DNA replication (p=0.027) and local recurrence. Multivariate analysis identified HBV-DNA (p=0.031) and proximity to the risk area (p=0.039) as the independent prognosis factors causing postoperative HCC local recurrence. High-powered MWA of larger hepatocellular carcinomas appears to be a safe and effective treatment. HBV-DNA and proximity

  19. Changes in crustal seismic deformation rates associated with the 1964 Great Alaska earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Doser, D.I.; Ratchkovski, N.A.; Haeussler, Peter J.; Saltus, R.

    2004-01-01

    We calculated seismic moment rates from crustal earthquake information for the upper Cook Inlet region, including Anchorage, Alaska, for the 30 yr prior to and 36 yr following the 1964 Great Alaska earthquake. Our results suggest over a factor of 1000 decrease in seismic moment rate (in units of dyne centimeters per year) following the 1964 mainshock. We used geologic information on structures within the Cook Inlet basin to estimate a regional geologic moment rate, assuming the structures extend to 30 km depth and have near-vertical dips. The geologic moment rates could underestimate the true rates by up to 70% since it is difficult determine the amount of horizontal offset that has occurred along many structures within the basin. Nevertheless, the geologic moment rate is only 3-7 times lower than the pre-1964 seismic moment rate, suggesting the 1964 mainshock has significantly slowed regional crustal deformation. If we compare the geologic moment rate to the post-1964 seismic moment rate, the moment rate deficit over the past 36 yr is equivalent to a moment magnitude 6.6-7.0 earthquake. These observed differences in moment rates highlight the difficulty in using seismicity in the decades following a large megathrust earthquake to adequately characterize long-term crustal deformation.

  20. Characterizing potentially induced earthquake rate changes in the Brawley Seismic Zone, southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.

    2016-01-01

    The Brawley seismic zone (BSZ), in the Salton trough of southern California, has a history of earthquake swarms and geothermal energy exploitation. Some earthquake rate changes may have been induced by fluid extraction and injection activity at local geothermal fields, particularly at the North Brawley Geothermal Field (NBGF) and at the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF). We explore this issue by examining earthquake rate changes and interevent distance distributions in these fields. In Oklahoma and Arkansas, where considerable wastewater injection occurs, increases in background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity and decreases in interevent distance were indicative of fluid‐injection‐induced seismicity. Here, we test if similar changes occur that may be associated with fluid injection and extraction in geothermal areas. We use stochastic epidemic‐type aftershock sequence models to detect changes in the underlying seismogenic processes, shown by statistically significant changes in the model parameters. The most robust model changes in the SSGF roughly occur when large changes in net fluid production occur, but a similar correlation is not seen in the NBGF. Also, although both background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity increased for fluid‐injection‐induced earthquake rate changes in Oklahoma and Arkansas, the background rate increases significantly in the BSZ only, roughly corresponding with net fluid production rate increases. Moreover, in both fields the interevent spacing does not change significantly during active energy projects. This suggests that, although geothermal field activities in a tectonically active region may not significantly change the physics of earthquake interactions, earthquake rates may still be driven by fluid injection or extraction rates, particularly in the SSGF.

  1. Increases in seismicity rate in the Tokyo Metropolitan area after the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ishibe, T.; Satake, K.; Sakai, S.; Shimazaki, K.; Tsuruoka, H.; Nakagawa, S.; Hirata, N.

    2013-12-01

    Abrupt increases in seismicity rate have been observed in the Kanto region, where the Tokyo Metropolitan area is located, after the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake (M9.0) on March 11, 2011. They are well explained by the static increases in the Coulomb Failure Function (ΔCFF) imparted by the gigantic thrusting while some other possible factors (e.g., dynamic stress changes, excess of fluid dehydration, post-seismic slip) may also contribute the rate changes. Because of various types of earthquakes with different focal mechanisms occur in the Kanto region, the receiver faults for the calculation of ΔCFF were assumed to be two nodal planes of small earthquakes before and after the Tohoku earthquake. The regions where seismicity rate increased after the Tohoku earthquake well correlate with concentration on positive ΔCFF (i.e., southwestern Ibaraki and northern Chiba prefectures where intermediate-depth earthquakes occur, and in the shallow crust of western Kanagawa, eastern Shizuoka, and southeastern Yamanashi including the Izu and Hakone regions). The seismicity rate has increased since March 11, 2011 with respect to the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, 1988), suggesting that the rate increase was due to the stress increase by the Tohoku earthquake. Furthermore, the z-values immediately after the Tohoku earthquake show the minimum values during the recent 10 years, indicating significant increases in seismicity rate. At intermediate depth, abrupt increases in thrust faulting earthquakes are well consistent with the Coulomb stress increase. At shallow depth, the earthquakes with the T-axes of roughly NE-SW were activated probably due to the E-W extension of the overriding continental plate, and this is also well explained by the Coulomb stress increase. However, the activated seismicity in the Izu and Hakone regions rapidly decayed following the Omori-Utsu formula, while the increased rate of seismicity in the southwestern

  2. Earthquake Rate Models for Evolving Induced Seismicity Hazard in the Central and Eastern US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Llenos, A. L.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Michael, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Injection-induced earthquake rates can vary rapidly in space and time, which presents significant challenges to traditional probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodologies that are based on a time-independent model of mainshock occurrence. To help society cope with rapidly evolving seismicity, the USGS is developing one-year hazard models for areas of induced seismicity in the central and eastern US to forecast the shaking due to all earthquakes, including aftershocks which are generally omitted from hazards assessments (Petersen et al., 2015). However, the spatial and temporal variability of the earthquake rates make them difficult to forecast even on time-scales as short as one year. An initial approach is to use the previous year's seismicity rate to forecast the next year's seismicity rate. However, in places such as northern Oklahoma the rates vary so rapidly over time that a simple linear extrapolation does not accurately forecast the future, even when the variability in the rates is modeled with simulations based on an Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, JASA, 1988) to account for earthquake clustering. Instead of relying on a fixed time period for rate estimation, we explore another way to determine when the earthquake rate should be updated. This approach could also objectively identify new areas where the induced seismicity hazard model should be applied. We will estimate the background seismicity rate by optimizing a single set of ETAS aftershock triggering parameters across the most active induced seismicity zones -- Oklahoma, Guy-Greenbrier, the Raton Basin, and the Azle-Dallas-Fort Worth area -- with individual background rate parameters in each zone. The full seismicity rate, with uncertainties, can then be estimated using ETAS simulations and changes in rate can be detected by applying change point analysis in ETAS transformed time with methods already developed for Poisson processes.

  3. Reactivity of seismicity rate to static Coulomb stress changes of two consecutive large earthquakes in the central Philippines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dianala, J. D. B.; Aurelio, M.; Rimando, J. M.; Taguibao, K.

    2015-12-01

    In a region with little understanding in terms of active faults and seismicity, two large-magnitude reverse-fault related earthquakes occurred within 100km of each other in separate islands of the Central Philippines—the Mw=6.7 February 2012 Negros earthquake and the Mw=7.2 October 2013 Bohol earthquake. Based on source faults that were defined using onshore, offshore seismic reflection, and seismicity data, stress transfer models for both earthquakes were calculated using the software Coulomb. Coulomb stress triggering between the two main shocks is unlikely as the stress change caused by Negros earthquake on the Bohol fault was -0.03 bars. Correlating the stress changes on optimally-oriented reverse faults with seismicity rate changes shows that areas that decreased both in static stress and seismicity rate after the first earthquake were then areas with increased static stress and increased seismicity rate caused by the second earthquake. These areas with now increased stress, especially those with seismicity showing reactivity to static stress changes caused by the two earthquakes, indicate the presence of active structures in the island of Cebu. Comparing the history of instrumentally recorded seismicity and the recent large earthquakes of Negros and Bohol, these structures in Cebu have the potential to generate large earthquakes. Given that the Philippines' second largest metropolitan area (Metro Cebu) is in close proximity, detailed analysis of the earthquake potential and seismic hazards in these areas should be undertaken.

  4. Recurrence Rate and Magma Effusion Rate for the Latest Volcanism on Arsia Mons, Mars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richardson, Jacob A.; Wilson, James A.; Connor, Charles B.; Bleacher, Jacob E.; Kiyosugi, Koji

    2016-01-01

    Magmatism and volcanism have evolved the Martian lithosphere, surface, and climate throughout the history of Mars. Constraining the rates of magma generation and timing of volcanism on the surface clarifies the ways in which magma and volcanic activity have shaped these Martian systems. The ages of lava flows on other planets are often estimated using impact crater counts, assuming that the number and size-distribution of impact craters per unit area reflect the time the lava flow has been on the surface and exposed to potential impacts. Here we show that impact crater age model uncertainty is reduced by adding stratigraphic information observed at locations where neighboring lavas abut each other, and demonstrate the significance of this reduction in age uncertainty for understanding the history of a volcanic field comprising 29 vents in the 110-kilometer-diameter caldera of Arsia Mons, Mars. Each vent within this caldera produced lava flows several to tens of kilometers in length; these vents are likely among the youngest on Mars, since no impact craters in their lava flows are larger than 1 kilometer in diameter. First, we modeled the age of each vent with impact crater counts performed on their corresponding lava flows and found very large age uncertainties for the ages of individual vents, often spanning the estimated age for the entire volcanic field. The age model derived from impact crater counts alone is broad and unimodal, with estimated peak activity in the field around 130Ma (megaannum, 1 million years). Next we applied our volcano event age model (VEAM), which uses a directed graph of stratigraphic relationships and random sampling of the impact crater age determinations to create alternative age models. Monte Carlo simulation was used to create 10,000 possible vent age sets. The recurrence rate of volcanism is calculated for each possible age set, and these rates are combined to calculate the median recurrence rate of all simulations. Applying this

  5. Recurrence rate and magma effusion rate for the latest volcanism on Arsia Mons, Mars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richardson, Jacob A.; Wilson, James A.; Connor, Charles B.; Bleacher, Jacob E.; Kiyosugi, Koji

    2017-01-01

    Magmatism and volcanism have evolved the Martian lithosphere, surface, and climate throughout the history of Mars. Constraining the rates of magma generation and timing of volcanism on the surface clarifies the ways in which magma and volcanic activity have shaped these Martian systems. The ages of lava flows on other planets are often estimated using impact crater counts, assuming that the number and size-distribution of impact craters per unit area reflect the time the lava flow has been on the surface and exposed to potential impacts. Here we show that impact crater age model uncertainty is reduced by adding stratigraphic information observed at locations where neighboring lavas abut each other, and demonstrate the significance of this reduction in age uncertainty for understanding the history of a volcanic field comprising 29 vents in the 110-km-diameter caldera of Arsia Mons, Mars. Each vent within this caldera produced lava flows several to tens of kilometers in length; these vents are likely among the youngest on Mars, since no impact craters in their lava flows are larger than 1 km in diameter. First, we modeled the age of each vent with impact crater counts performed on their corresponding lava flows and found very large age uncertainties for the ages of individual vents, often spanning the estimated age for the entire volcanic field. The age model derived from impact crater counts alone is broad and unimodal, with estimated peak activity in the field around 130 Ma. Next we applied our volcano event age model (VEAM), which uses a directed graph of stratigraphic relationships and random sampling of the impact crater age determinations to create alternative age models. Monte Carlo simulation was used to create 10,000 possible vent age sets. The recurrence rate of volcanism is calculated for each possible age set, and these rates are combined to calculate the median recurrence rate of all simulations. Applying this approach to the 29 volcanic vents, volcanism

  6. Global Earthquake Activity Rate models based on version 2 of the Global Strain Rate Map

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bird, P.; Kreemer, C.; Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

    2013-12-01

    Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) models have usually been based on either relative tectonic motion (fault slip rates and/or distributed strain rates), or on smoothing of seismic catalogs. However, a hybrid approach appears to perform better than either parent, at least in some retrospective tests. First, we construct a Tectonic ('T') forecast of shallow (≤ 70 km) seismicity based on global plate-boundary strain rates from version 2 of the Global Strain Rate Map. Our approach is the SHIFT (Seismic Hazard Inferred From Tectonics) method described by Bird et al. [2010, SRL], in which the character of the strain rate tensor (thrusting and/or strike-slip and/or normal) is used to select the most comparable type of plate boundary for calibration of the coupled seismogenic lithosphere thickness and corner magnitude. One difference is that activity of offshore plate boundaries is spatially smoothed using empirical half-widths [Bird & Kagan, 2004, BSSA] before conversion to seismicity. Another is that the velocity-dependence of coupling in subduction and continental-convergent boundaries [Bird et al., 2009, BSSA] is incorporated. Another forecast component is the smoothed-seismicity ('S') forecast model of [Kagan & Jackson, 1994, JGR; Kagan & Jackson, 2010, GJI], which was based on optimized smoothing of the shallow part of the GCMT catalog, years 1977-2004. Both forecasts were prepared for threshold magnitude 5.767. Then, we create hybrid forecasts by one of 3 methods: (a) taking the greater of S or T; (b) simple weighted-average of S and T; or (c) log of the forecast rate is a weighted average of the logs of S and T. In methods (b) and (c) there is one free parameter, which is the fractional contribution from S. All hybrid forecasts are normalized to the same global rate. Pseudo-prospective tests for 2005-2012 (using versions of S and T calibrated on years 1977-2004) show that many hybrid models outperform both parents (S and T), and that the optimal weight on S

  7. Earthquake nucleation on faults with rate-and state-dependent strength

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dieterich, J.H.

    1992-01-01

    Dieterich, J.H., 1992. Earthquake nucleation on faults with rate- and state-dependent strength. In: T. Mikumo, K. Aki, M. Ohnaka, L.J. Ruff and P.K.P. Spudich (Editors), Earthquake Source Physics and Earthquake Precursors. Tectonophysics, 211: 115-134. Faults with rate- and state-dependent constitutive properties reproduce a range of observed fault slip phenomena including spontaneous nucleation of slip instabilities at stresses above some critical stress level and recovery of strength following slip instability. Calculations with a plane-strain fault model with spatially varying properties demonstrate that accelerating slip precedes instability and becomes localized to a fault patch. The dimensions of the fault patch follow scaling relations for the minimum critical length for unstable fault slip. The critical length is a function of normal stress, loading conditions and constitutive parameters which include Dc, the characteristic slip distance. If slip starts on a patch that exceeds the critical size, the length of the rapidly accelerating zone tends to shrink to the characteristic size as the time of instability approaches. Solutions have been obtained for a uniform, fixed-patch model that are in good agreement with results from the plane-strain model. Over a wide range of conditions, above the steady-state stress, the logarithm of the time to instability linearly decreases as the initial stress increases. Because nucleation patch length and premonitory displacement are proportional to Dc, the moment of premonitory slip scales by D3c. The scaling of Dc is currently an open question. Unless Dc for earthquake faults is significantly greater than that observed on laboratory faults, premonitory strain arising from the nucleation process for earthquakes may by too small to detect using current observation methods. Excluding the possibility that Dc in the nucleation zone controls the magnitude of the subsequent earthquake, then the source dimensions of the smallest

  8. Seismic hazard in Hawaii: High rate of large earthquakes and probabilistics ground-motion maps

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Klein, F.W.; Frankel, A.D.; Mueller, C.S.; Wesson, R.L.; Okubo, P.G.

    2001-01-01

    The seismic hazard and earthquake occurrence rates in Hawaii are locally as high as that near the most hazardous faults elsewhere in the United States. We have generated maps of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) (at 0.2, 0.3 and 1.0 sec, 5% critical damping) at 2% and 10% exceedance probabilities in 50 years. The highest hazard is on the south side of Hawaii Island, as indicated by the MI 7.0, MS 7.2, and MI 7.9 earthquakes, which occurred there since 1868. Probabilistic values of horizontal PGA (2% in 50 years) on Hawaii's south coast exceed 1.75g. Because some large earthquake aftershock zones and the geometry of flank blocks slipping on subhorizontal decollement faults are known, we use a combination of spatially uniform sources in active flank blocks and smoothed seismicity in other areas to model seismicity. Rates of earthquakes are derived from magnitude distributions of the modem (1959-1997) catalog of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory's seismic network supplemented by the historic (1868-1959) catalog. Modern magnitudes are ML measured on a Wood-Anderson seismograph or MS. Historic magnitudes may add ML measured on a Milne-Shaw or Bosch-Omori seismograph or MI derived from calibrated areas of MM intensities. Active flank areas, which by far account for the highest hazard, are characterized by distributions with b slopes of about 1.0 below M 5.0 and about 0.6 above M 5.0. The kinked distribution means that large earthquake rates would be grossly under-estimated by extrapolating small earthquake rates, and that longer catalogs are essential for estimating or verifying the rates of large earthquakes. Flank earthquakes thus follow a semicharacteristic model, which is a combination of background seismicity and an excess number of large earthquakes. Flank earthquakes are geometrically confined to rupture zones on the volcano flanks by barriers such as rift zones and the seaward edge of the volcano, which may be expressed by a magnitude

  9. Low rates of loco-regional recurrence following extended lymph node dissection for gastric cancer.

    PubMed

    Muratore, A; Zimmitti, G; Lo Tesoriere, R; Mellano, A; Massucco, P; Capussotti, L

    2009-06-01

    The study by MacDonald et al. [Chemoradiotherapy after surgery compared with surgery alone for adenocarcinoma of the stomach or gastroesophageal junction. N Engl J Med 2001;345:725-30] has reported low loco-regional recurrence rates (19%) after gastric cancer resection and adjuvant radiotherapy. However, the lymph node dissection was often "inadequate". The aim of this retrospective study is to analyse if an extended lymph node dissection (D2) without adjuvant radiotherapy may achieve comparable loco-regional recurrence rates. A prospective database of 200 patients who underwent a curative resection for gastric carcinoma from January 2000 to December 2006 was analysed. D2 lymph node dissection was standard. Recurrences were categorized as loco-regional, peritoneal, or distant. No patients received neoadjuvant or adjuvant radiotherapy. The in-hospital mortality rate was 1% (2 patients). The mean number of dissected lymph nodes was 25.9. Overall and disease-free survival at 5years were 60.7% and 61.2% respectively. During the follow-up, 60 patients (30%) have recurred at 76 sites: 38 (50%) distant metastases, 25 (32.9%) peritoneal metastases, and 13 (17.1%) loco-regional recurrences. The loco-regional recurrence was isolated in 6 patients and associated with peritoneal or distant metastases in 7 patients. The mean time to the first recurrence was 18.9 (95% confidence interval: 15.0-21.9) months. Extended lymph node dissection is safe and warrants low loco-regional recurrence rates.

  10. Comparing the stress change characteristics and aftershock decay rate of the 2011 Mineral, VA, earthquake with similar earthquakes from a variety of tectonic settings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walsh, L. S.; Montesi, L. G.; Sauber, J. M.; Watters, T. R.; Kim, W.; Martin, A. J.; Anderson, R.

    2011-12-01

    On August 23, 2011, the magnitude 5.8 Mineral, VA, earthquake rocked the U.S. national capital region (Washington, DC) drawing worldwide attention to the occurrence of intraplate earthquakes. Using regional Coulomb stress change, we evaluate to what extent slip on faults during the Mineral, VA, earthquake and its aftershocks may have increased stress on notable Cenozoic fault systems in the DC metropolitan area: the central Virginia seismic zone, the DC fault zone, and the Stafford fault system. Our Coulomb stress maps indicate that the transfer of stress from the Mineral, VA, mainshock was at least 500 times greater than that produced from the magnitude 3.4 Germantown, MD, earthquake that occurred northwest of DC on July 16, 2010. Overall, the Mineral, VA, earthquake appears to have loaded faults of optimum orientation in the DC metropolitan region, bringing them closer to failure. The distribution of aftershocks of the Mineral, VA, earthquake will be compared with Coulomb stress change maps. We further characterize the Mineral, VA, earthquake by comparing its aftershock decay rate with that of blind thrust earthquakes with similar magnitude, focal mechanism, and depth from a variety of tectonic settings. In particular, we compare aftershock decay relations of the Mineral, VA, earthquake with two well studied California reverse faulting events, the August 4, 1985 Kettleman Hills (Mw = 6.1) and October 1, 1987 Whittier Narrow (Mw = 5.9) earthquakes. Through these relations we test the hypothesis that aftershock duration is inversely proportional to fault stressing rate, suggesting that aftershocks in active tectonic margins may last only a few years while aftershocks in intraplate regions could endure for decades to a century.

  11. Methodology for earthquake rupture rate estimates of fault networks: example for the western Corinth rift, Greece

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chartier, Thomas; Scotti, Oona; Lyon-Caen, Hélène; Boiselet, Aurélien

    2017-10-01

    Modeling the seismic potential of active faults is a fundamental step of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). An accurate estimation of the rate of earthquakes on the faults is necessary in order to obtain the probability of exceedance of a given ground motion. Most PSHA studies consider faults as independent structures and neglect the possibility of multiple faults or fault segments rupturing simultaneously (fault-to-fault, FtF, ruptures). The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast version 3 (UCERF-3) model takes into account this possibility by considering a system-level approach rather than an individual-fault-level approach using the geological, seismological and geodetical information to invert the earthquake rates. In many places of the world seismological and geodetical information along fault networks is often not well constrained. There is therefore a need to propose a methodology relying on geological information alone to compute earthquake rates of the faults in the network. In the proposed methodology, a simple distance criteria is used to define FtF ruptures and consider single faults or FtF ruptures as an aleatory uncertainty, similarly to UCERF-3. Rates of earthquakes on faults are then computed following two constraints: the magnitude frequency distribution (MFD) of earthquakes in the fault system as a whole must follow an a priori chosen shape and the rate of earthquakes on each fault is determined by the specific slip rate of each segment depending on the possible FtF ruptures. The modeled earthquake rates are then compared to the available independent data (geodetical, seismological and paleoseismological data) in order to weight different hypothesis explored in a logic tree.The methodology is tested on the western Corinth rift (WCR), Greece, where recent advancements have been made in the understanding of the geological slip rates of the complex network of normal faults which are accommodating the ˜ 15 mm yr-1 north

  12. Cascadia Onshore-Offshore Site Response, Submarine Sediment Mobilization, and Earthquake Recurrence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gomberg, J.

    2018-02-01

    Local geologic structure and topography may modify arriving seismic waves. This inherent variation in shaking, or "site response," may affect the distribution of slope failures and redistribution of submarine sediments. I used seafloor seismic data from the 2011 to 2015 Cascadia Initiative and permanent onshore seismic networks to derive estimates of site response, denoted Sn, in low- and high-frequency (0.02-1 and 1-10 Hz) passbands. For three shaking metrics (peak velocity and acceleration and energy density) Sn varies similarly throughout Cascadia and changes primarily in the direction of convergence, roughly east-west. In the two passbands, Sn patterns offshore are nearly opposite and range over an order of magnitude or more across Cascadia. Sn patterns broadly may be attributed to sediment resonance and attenuation. This and an abrupt step in the east-west trend of Sn suggest that changes in topography and structure at the edge of the continental margin significantly impact shaking. These patterns also correlate with gravity lows diagnostic of marginal basins and methane plumes channeled within shelf-bounding faults. Offshore Sn exceeds that onshore in both passbands, and the steepest slopes and shelf coincide with the relatively greatest and smallest Sn estimates at low and high frequencies, respectively; these results should be considered in submarine shaking-triggered slope stability failure studies. Significant north-south Sn variations are not apparent, but sparse sampling does not permit rejection of the hypothesis that the southerly decrease in intervals between shaking-triggered turbidites and great earthquakes inferred by Goldfinger et al. (2012, 2013, 2016) and Priest et al. (2017) is due to inherently stronger shaking southward.

  13. A smoothed stochastic earthquake rate model considering seismicity and fault moment release for Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hiemer, S.; Woessner, J.; Basili, R.; Danciu, L.; Giardini, D.; Wiemer, S.

    2014-08-01

    We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Turkey. The spatial component of our model is based on kernel density estimation techniques, which we applied to both past earthquake locations and fault moment release on mapped crustal faults and subduction zone interfaces with assigned slip rates. Our forecast relies on the assumption that the locations of past seismicity is a good guide to future seismicity, and that future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. We show that the optimal weighted sum of the corresponding two spatial densities depends on the magnitude range considered. The kernel bandwidths and density weighting function are optimized using retrospective likelihood-based forecast experiments. We computed earthquake activity rates (a- and b-value) of the truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution separately for crustal and subduction seismicity based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the catalogue. The final annual rate of our forecast is purely driven by the maximum likelihood fit of activity rates to the catalogue data, whereas its spatial component incorporates contributions from both earthquake and fault moment-rate densities. Our model constitutes one branch of the earthquake source model logic tree of the 2013 European seismic hazard model released by the EU-FP7 project `Seismic HAzard haRmonization in Europe' (SHARE) and contributes to the assessment of epistemic uncertainties in earthquake activity rates. We performed retrospective and pseudo-prospective likelihood consistency tests to underline the reliability of our model and SHARE's area source model (ASM) using the testing algorithms applied in the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability (CSEP). We comparatively tested our model's forecasting skill against the ASM and find a statistically significant better performance for

  14. A Comparison of Geodetic and Geologic Rates Prior to Large Strike-Slip Earthquakes: A Diversity of Earthquake-Cycle Behaviors?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dolan, James F.; Meade, Brendan J.

    2017-12-01

    Comparison of preevent geodetic and geologic rates in three large-magnitude (Mw = 7.6-7.9) strike-slip earthquakes reveals a wide range of behaviors. Specifically, geodetic rates of 26-28 mm/yr for the North Anatolian fault along the 1999 MW = 7.6 Izmit rupture are ˜40% faster than Holocene geologic rates. In contrast, geodetic rates of ˜6-8 mm/yr along the Denali fault prior to the 2002 MW = 7.9 Denali earthquake are only approximately half as fast as the latest Pleistocene-Holocene geologic rate of ˜12 mm/yr. In the third example where a sufficiently long pre-earthquake geodetic time series exists, the geodetic and geologic rates along the 2001 MW = 7.8 Kokoxili rupture on the Kunlun fault are approximately equal at ˜11 mm/yr. These results are not readily explicable with extant earthquake-cycle modeling, suggesting that they may instead be due to some combination of regional kinematic fault interactions, temporal variations in the strength of lithospheric-scale shear zones, and/or variations in local relative plate motion rate. Whatever the exact causes of these variable behaviors, these observations indicate that either the ratio of geodetic to geologic rates before an earthquake may not be diagnostic of the time to the next earthquake, as predicted by many rheologically based geodynamic models of earthquake-cycle behavior, or different behaviors characterize different fault systems in a manner that is not yet understood or predictable.

  15. Reducing sojourn points from recurrence plots to improve transition detection: Application to fetal heart rate transitions.

    PubMed

    Zaylaa, Amira; Charara, Jamal; Girault, Jean-Marc

    2015-08-01

    The analysis of biomedical signals demonstrating complexity through recurrence plots is challenging. Quantification of recurrences is often biased by sojourn points that hide dynamic transitions. To overcome this problem, time series have previously been embedded at high dimensions. However, no one has quantified the elimination of sojourn points and rate of detection, nor the enhancement of transition detection has been investigated. This paper reports our on-going efforts to improve the detection of dynamic transitions from logistic maps and fetal hearts by reducing sojourn points. Three signal-based recurrence plots were developed, i.e. embedded with specific settings, derivative-based and m-time pattern. Determinism, cross-determinism and percentage of reduced sojourn points were computed to detect transitions. For logistic maps, an increase of 50% and 34.3% in sensitivity of detection over alternatives was achieved by m-time pattern and embedded recurrence plots with specific settings, respectively, and with a 100% specificity. For fetal heart rates, embedded recurrence plots with specific settings provided the best performance, followed by derivative-based recurrence plot, then unembedded recurrence plot using the determinism parameter. The relative errors between healthy and distressed fetuses were 153%, 95% and 91%. More than 50% of sojourn points were eliminated, allowing better detection of heart transitions triggered by gaseous exchange factors. This could be significant in improving the diagnosis of fetal state. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Estimating the effect of a rare time-dependent treatment on the recurrent event rate.

    PubMed

    Smith, Abigail R; Zhu, Danting; Goodrich, Nathan P; Merion, Robert M; Schaubel, Douglas E

    2018-05-30

    In many observational studies, the objective is to estimate the effect of treatment or state-change on the recurrent event rate. If treatment is assigned after the start of follow-up, traditional methods (eg, adjustment for baseline-only covariates or fully conditional adjustment for time-dependent covariates) may give biased results. We propose a two-stage modeling approach using the method of sequential stratification to accurately estimate the effect of a time-dependent treatment on the recurrent event rate. At the first stage, we estimate the pretreatment recurrent event trajectory using a proportional rates model censored at the time of treatment. Prognostic scores are estimated from the linear predictor of this model and used to match treated patients to as yet untreated controls based on prognostic score at the time of treatment for the index patient. The final model is stratified on matched sets and compares the posttreatment recurrent event rate to the recurrent event rate of the matched controls. We demonstrate through simulation that bias due to dependent censoring is negligible, provided the treatment frequency is low, and we investigate a threshold at which correction for dependent censoring is needed. The method is applied to liver transplant (LT), where we estimate the effect of development of post-LT End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) on rate of days hospitalized. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. 2D Simulations of Earthquake Cycles at a Subduction Zone Based on a Rate and State Friction Law -Effects of Pore Fluid Pressure Changes-

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitsui, Y.; Hirahara, K.

    2006-12-01

    There have been a lot of studies that simulate large earthquakes occurring quasi-periodically at a subduction zone, based on the laboratory-derived rate-and-state friction law [eg. Kato and Hirasawa (1997), Hirose and Hirahara (2002)]. All of them assume that pore fluid pressure in the fault zone is constant. However, in the fault zone, pore fluid pressure changes suddenly, due to coseismic pore dilatation [Marone (1990)] and thermal pressurization [Mase and Smith (1987)]. If pore fluid pressure drops and effective normal stress rises, fault slip is decelerated. Inversely, if pore fluid pressure rises and effective normal stress drops, fault slip is accelerated. The effect of pore fluid may cause slow slip events and low-frequency tremor [Kodaira et al. (2004), Shelly et al. (2006)]. For a simple spring model, how pore dilatation affects slip instability was investigated [Segall and Rice (1995), Sleep (1995)]. When the rate of the slip becomes high, pore dilatation occurs and pore pressure drops, and the rate of the slip is restrained. Then the inflow of pore fluid recovers the pore pressure. We execute 2D earthquake cycle simulations at a subduction zone, taking into account such changes of pore fluid pressure following Segall and Rice (1995), in addition to the numerical scheme in Kato and Hirasawa (1997). We do not adopt hydrostatic pore pressure but excess pore pressure for initial condition, because upflow of dehydrated water seems to exist at a subduction zone. In our model, pore fluid is confined to the fault damage zone and flows along the plate interface. The smaller the flow rate is, the later pore pressure recovers. Since effective normal stress keeps larger, the fault slip is decelerated and stress drop becomes smaller. Therefore the smaller flow rate along the fault zone leads to the shorter earthquake recurrence time. Thus, not only the frictional parameters and the subduction rate but also the fault zone permeability affects the recurrence time of

  18. Relative Contributions of Geothermal Pumping and Long-Term Earthquake Rate to Seismicity at California Geothermal Fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weiser, D. A.; Jackson, D. D.

    2015-12-01

    In a tectonically active area, a definitive discrimination between geothermally-induced and tectonic earthquakes is difficult to achieve. We focus our study on California's 11 major geothermal fields: Amedee, Brawley, Casa Diablo, Coso, East Mesa, The Geysers, Heber, Litchfield, Salton Sea, Susanville, and Wendel. The Geysers geothermal field is the world's largest geothermal energy producer. California's Department of Oil Gas and Geothermal Resources provides field-wide monthly injection and production volumes for each of these sites, which allows us to study the relationship between geothermal pumping activities and seismicity. Since many of the geothermal fields began injecting and producing before nearby seismic stations were installed, we use smoothed seismicity since 1932 from the ANSS catalog as a proxy for tectonic earthquake rate. We examine both geothermal pumping and long-term earthquake rate as factors that may control earthquake rate. Rather than focusing only on the largest earthquake, which is essentially a random occurrence in time, we examine how M≥4 earthquake rate density (probability per unit area, time, and magnitude) varies for each field. We estimate relative contributions to the observed earthquake rate of M≥4 from both a long-term earthquake rate (Kagan and Jackson, 2010) and pumping activity. For each geothermal field, respective earthquake catalogs (NCEDC and SCSN) are complete above at least M3 during the test period (which we tailor to each site). We test the hypothesis that the observed earthquake rate at a geothermal site during the test period is a linear combination of the long-term seismicity and pumping rates. We use a grid search to determine the confidence interval of the weighting parameters.

  19. Evidence for the recurrence of large-magnitude earthquakes along the Makran coast of Iran and Pakistan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Page, W.D.; Alt, J.N.; Cluff, L.S.; Plafker, G.

    1979-01-01

    The presence of raised beaches and marine terraces along the Makran coast indicates episodic uplift of the continental margin resulting from large-magnitude earthquakes. The uplift occurs as incremental steps similar in height to the 1-3 m of measured uplift resulting from the November 28, 1945 (M 8.3) earthquake at Pasni and Ormara, Pakistan. The data support an E-W-trending, active subduction zone off the Makran coast. The raised beaches and wave-cut terraces along the Makran coast are extensive with some terraces 1-2 km wide, 10-15 m long and up to 500 m in elevation. The terraces are generally capped with shelly sandstones 0.5-5 m thick. Wave-cut cliffs, notches, and associated boulder breccia and swash troughs are locally preserved. Raised Holocene accretion beaches, lagoonal deposits, and tombolos are found up to 10 m in elevation. The number and elevation of raised wave-cut terraces along the Makran coast increase eastward from one at Jask, the entrance to the Persian Gulf, at a few meters elevation, to nine at Konarak, 250 km to the east. Multiple terraces are found on the prominent headlands as far east as Karachi. The wave-cut terraces are locally tilted and cut by faults with a few meters of displacement. Long-term, average rates of uplift were calculated from present elevation, estimated elevation at time of deposition, and 14C and U-Th dates obtained on shells. Uplift rates in centimeters per year at various locations from west to east are as follows: Jask, 0 (post-Sangamon); Konarak, 0.031-0.2 (Holocene), 0.01 (post-Sangamon); Ormara 0.2 (Holocene). ?? 1979.

  20. Mortality and recurrence rate after pressure ulcer operation for elderly long-term bedridden patients.

    PubMed

    Kuwahara, Masamitsu; Tada, Hideyuki; Mashiba, Kumi; Yurugi, Satoshi; Iioka, Hiroshi; Niitsuma, Katsunori; Yasuda, Yukiko

    2005-06-01

    We operated on 16 sacral pressure ulcers in elderly and long-term residential patients who were immobile as a result of cerebral vascular disease. The mean age of patients was 76 years. Eight ulcers were treated with local fascial flaps and 8 by simple closure. The follow-up period was from 1 to 4 years. Recurrence and mortality rates were examined retrospectively. In the 16 patients, recurrence occurred in 37.5%, and 43.8% died without recurrence. The recurrence rate was 37.5% for local fascial flaps and 37.5% for simple closure. Overall mortality was 68.8% in the follow-up period. Because postoperative death was common, we should not only focus on reducing local pressure but also pay attention to any underlying disease. Because of this high mortality rate, the least invasive procedure possible should be used. Because the recurrence rate of simple closure was the same as for local fascial flaps, simple closure should be considered as a reconstructive method.

  1. Low rates of recurrence after successful treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Tomsk, Russia.

    PubMed

    Gelmanova, I Y; Ahmad Khan, F; Becerra, M C; Zemlyanaya, N A; Unakova, I A; Andreev, Y G; Berezina, V I; Pavlova, V E; Shin, S; Yedilbayev, A B; Krasnov, V A; Keshavjee, S

    2015-04-01

    Tomsk, Russia, where multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is prevalent. To report rates of recurrence following successful treatment of MDR-TB in a program providing individualized treatment regimens designed according to the current global standard of care. A retrospective cohort study of 408 adults successfully treated for pulmonary MDR-TB from 10 September 2000 to 1 November 2004, and followed for up to 6 years post-treatment. We used Poisson regression with generalized estimating equations to assess whether recurrence rates changed significantly with time. We analyzed 399 (97.5%) patients with at least one follow-up visit (15 850 person-months of observation [PMO]). Baseline resistance to second-line drugs was common (65.2%); 398 patients (99.7%) were human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) negative. In the first year of post-treatment follow-up, there were six episodes of recurrence (1.4/1000 PMO, 95%CI 0.5-3.0). After the first post-treatment year, there were 21 episodes of recurrence (1.8/1000 PMO, 95%CI 1.1-2.8). The rate did not change significantly with time. Individualized regimens designed according to the current global standard of care achieved low rates of MDR-TB recurrence among non-HIV-infected persons treated in a programmatic setting.

  2. Holocene slip rates along the San Andreas Fault System in the San Gorgonio Pass and implications for large earthquakes in southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heermance, Richard V.; Yule, Doug

    2017-06-01

    The San Gorgonio Pass (SGP) in southern California contains a 40 km long region of structural complexity where the San Andreas Fault (SAF) bifurcates into a series of oblique-slip faults with unknown slip history. We combine new 10Be exposure ages (Qt4: 8600 (+2100, -2200) and Qt3: 5700 (+1400, -1900) years B.P.) and a radiocarbon age (1260 ± 60 years B.P.) from late Holocene terraces with scarp displacement of these surfaces to document a Holocene slip rate of 5.7 (+2.7, -1.5) mm/yr combined across two faults. Our preferred slip rate is 37-49% of the average slip rates along the SAF outside the SGP (i.e., Coachella Valley and San Bernardino sections) and implies that strain is transferred off the SAF in this area. Earthquakes here most likely occur in very large, throughgoing SAF events at a lower recurrence than elsewhere on the SAF, so that only approximately one third of SAF ruptures penetrate or originate in the pass.Plain Language SummaryHow large are <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on the southern San Andreas Fault? The answer to this question depends on whether or not the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is contained only along individual fault sections, such as the Coachella Valley section north of Palm Springs, or the rupture crosses multiple sections including the area through the San Gorgonio Pass. We have determined the age and offset of faulted stream deposits within the San Gorgonio Pass to document slip <span class="hlt">rates</span> of these faults over the last 10,000 years. Our results indicate a long-term slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> of 6 mm/yr, which is almost 1/2 of the <span class="hlt">rates</span> east and west of this area. These new <span class="hlt">rates</span>, combined with faulted geomorphic surfaces, imply that large magnitude <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> must occasionally rupture a 300 km length of the San Andreas Fault from the Salton Sea to the Mojave Desert. Although many ( 65%) <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> along the southern San Andreas Fault likely do not rupture through the pass, our new results suggest that large >Mw 7.5 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are possible</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29643366','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29643366"><span>Constant strain accumulation <span class="hlt">rate</span> between major <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on the North Anatolian Fault.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Hussain, Ekbal; Wright, Tim J; Walters, Richard J; Bekaert, David P S; Lloyd, Ryan; Hooper, Andrew</p> <p>2018-04-11</p> <p><span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> are caused by the release of tectonic strain accumulated between events. Recent advances in satellite geodesy mean we can now measure this interseismic strain accumulation with a high degree of accuracy. But it remains unclear how to interpret short-term geodetic observations, measured over decades, when estimating the seismic hazard of faults accumulating strain over centuries. Here, we show that strain accumulation <span class="hlt">rates</span> calculated from geodetic measurements around a major transform fault are constant for its entire 250-year interseismic period, except in the ~10 years following an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The shear strain <span class="hlt">rate</span> history requires a weak fault zone embedded within a strong lower crust with viscosity greater than ~10 20  Pa s. The results support the notion that short-term geodetic observations can directly contribute to long-term seismic hazard assessment and suggest that lower-crustal viscosities derived from postseismic studies are not representative of the lower crust at all spatial and temporal scales.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018Tectp.738...92D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018Tectp.738...92D"><span>Paleoseismic history and slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> along the Sapanca-Akyazı segment of the 1999 İzmit <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture (Mw = 7.4) of the North Anatolian Fault (Turkey)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dikbaş, Aynur; Akyüz, H. Serdar; Meghraoui, Mustapha; Ferry, Matthieu; Altunel, Erhan; Zabcı, Cengiz; Langridge, Robert; Yalçıner, Cahit Çağlar</p> <p>2018-07-01</p> <p>The Sapanca-Akyazı segment (SAS) is located on western part of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) of Turkey. It was ruptured together with four other segments during the 17th August 1999 İzmit <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (Mw = 7.4) which caused 145-km-long surface rupture in the east Marmara region. We conducted geomorphological investigations and 2D-3D paleoseismic trenching at 3 different sites near the Sakarya River along the SAS to obtain new data for the timing of past <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> of this section of the NAF. Detailed investigations using Ground Penetrating Radar on the western bank of the Sakarya River reveal 18.5 ± 0.5 m of right-lateral cumulative offset of an alluvial terrace dated as 850 ± 11 years BP using Optically Stimulated Luminescence. The analysis of trench data from the three different sites of the SAS indicates the occurrence of four surface rupturing past <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> including the 1999 İzmit <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. According to the radiocarbon dating, these paleo-<span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> can be correlated with the 1719 CE, 1567 CE, and 1037 CE historical <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and suggest an average <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> period between 273 and 322 years. The total dextral offset, the age of trench units and the terrace deposits together suggest a 22 ± 3 mm/yr slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> for this portion of the NAF.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18642208','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18642208"><span>[<span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> following adjuvant strontium-90 brachytherapy after excision of conjunctival melanoma].</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Krause, L; Ritter, C; Wachtlin, J; Kreusel, K-M; Höcht, S; Foerster, M H; Bechrakis, N E</p> <p>2008-07-01</p> <p>Because of the high local <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> after excision of conjunctival melanomas, adjuvant local chemotherapy or irradiation is recommended. Strontium-90 brachytherapy is one radiotherapeutic option due to its low penetration depth. 15 patients with conjunctival melanoma were treated with adjuvant strontium-90 brachytherapy after tumour excision. The treatment was fractionated into 9 irradiation sessions with 6 Gy each. The mean follow-up was 35 months (12-60 months). Seven patients (46%) had no <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> during the follow-up. Three patients (20%) had a <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> in the treated or adjacent area. Eight patients (53%) developed new tumours in non-treated areas. Strontium-90 brachytherapy is a useful adjuvant in the treatment of conjunctival melanomas. Regular ophthalmoscopic controls are necessary because of the high <span class="hlt">rate</span> of new tumours in non-irradiated areas, especially in cases with primary acquired melanosis.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.9104H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.9104H"><span>An <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> forecast for Europe based on smoothed seismicity and smoothed fault contribution</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hiemer, Stefan; Woessner, Jochen; Basili, Roberto; Wiemer, Stefan</p> <p>2013-04-01</p> <p>The main objective of project SHARE (Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe) is to develop a community-based seismic hazard model for the Euro-Mediterranean region. The logic tree of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture forecasts comprises several methodologies including smoothed seismicity approaches. Smoothed seismicity thus represents an alternative concept to express the degree of spatial stationarity of seismicity and provides results that are more objective, reproducible, and testable. Nonetheless, the smoothed-seismicity approach suffers from the common drawback of being generally based on <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalogs alone, i.e. the wealth of knowledge from geology is completely ignored. We present a model that applies the kernel-smoothing method to both past <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> locations and slip <span class="hlt">rates</span> on mapped crustal faults and subductions. The result is mainly driven by the data, being independent of subjective delineation of seismic source zones. The core parts of our model are two distinct location probability densities: The first is computed by smoothing past seismicity (using variable kernel smoothing to account for varying data density). The second is obtained by smoothing fault moment <span class="hlt">rate</span> contributions. The fault moment <span class="hlt">rates</span> are calculated by summing the moment <span class="hlt">rate</span> of each fault patch on a fully parameterized and discretized fault as available from the SHARE fault database. We assume that the regional frequency-magnitude distribution of the entire study area is well known and estimate the a- and b-value of a truncated Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the seismic catalog. The two location probability densities are linearly weighted as a function of magnitude assuming that (1) the occurrence of past seismicity is a good proxy to forecast occurrence of future seismicity and (2) future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. Consequently</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70190039','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70190039"><span>A long-term <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> model for the central and eastern United States from smoothed seismicity</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Moschetti, Morgan P.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>I present a long-term <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> model for the central and eastern United States from adaptive smoothed seismicity. By employing pseudoprospective likelihood testing (L-test), I examined the effects of fixed and adaptive smoothing methods and the effects of catalog duration and composition on the ability of the models to forecast the spatial distribution of recent <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. To stabilize the adaptive smoothing method for regions of low seismicity, I introduced minor modifications to the way that the adaptive smoothing distances are calculated. Across all smoothed seismicity models, the use of adaptive smoothing and the use of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> from the recent part of the catalog optimizes the likelihood for tests with M≥2.7 and M≥4.0 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalogs. The smoothed seismicity models optimized by likelihood testing with M≥2.7 catalogs also produce the highest likelihood values for M≥4.0 likelihood testing, thus substantiating the hypothesis that the locations of moderate-size <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> can be forecast by the locations of smaller <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. The likelihood test does not, however, maximize the fraction of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> that are better forecast than a seismicity <span class="hlt">rate</span> model with uniform <span class="hlt">rates</span> in all cells. In this regard, fixed smoothing models perform better than adaptive smoothing models. The preferred model of this study is the adaptive smoothed seismicity model, based on its ability to maximize the joint likelihood of predicting the locations of recent small-to-moderate-size <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> across eastern North America. The preferred <span class="hlt">rate</span> model delineates 12 regions where the annual <span class="hlt">rate</span> of M≥5 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> exceeds 2×10−3. Although these seismic regions have been previously recognized, the preferred forecasts are more spatially concentrated than the <span class="hlt">rates</span> from fixed smoothed seismicity models, with <span class="hlt">rate</span> increases of up to a factor of 10 near clusters of high seismic activity.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.S21D..05N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.S21D..05N"><span>Spatial Distribution of the Coefficient of Variation for the Paleo-<span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> in Japan</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Nomura, S.; Ogata, Y.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Renewal processes, point prccesses in which intervals between consecutive events are independently and identically distributed, are frequently used to describe this repeating <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> mechanism and forecast the next <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. However, one of the difficulties in applying <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> models is the scarcity of the historical data. Most studied fault segments have few, or only one observed <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> that often have poorly constrained historic and/or radiocarbon ages. The maximum likelihood estimate from such a small data set can have a large bias and error, which tends to yield high probability for the next event in a very short time span when the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> intervals have similar lengths. On the other hand, <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> intervals at a fault depend on the long-term slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> caused by the tectonic motion in average. In addition, <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> times are also fluctuated by nearby <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> or fault activities which encourage or discourage surrounding seismicity. These factors have spatial trends due to the heterogeneity of tectonic motion and seismicity. Thus, this paper introduces a spatial structure on the key parameters of renewal processes for <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and estimates it by using spatial statistics. Spatial variation of mean and variance parameters of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> times are estimated in Bayesian framework and the next <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are forecasted by Bayesian predictive distributions. The proposal model is applied for <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalog in Japan and its result is compared with the current forecast adopted by the <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Research Committee of Japan.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25614068','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25614068"><span>Definitive radiotherapy for primary vaginal cancer: correlation between treatment patterns and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kanayama, Naoyuki; Isohashi, Fumiaki; Yoshioka, Yasuo; Baek, Sungjae; Chatani, Masashi; Kotsuma, Tadayuki; Tanaka, Eiichi; Yoshida, Ken; Seo, Yuji; Suzuki, Osamu; Mabuchi, Seiji; Shiki, Yasuhiko; Tatsumi, Keiji; Kimura, Tadashi; Teshima, Teruki; Ogawa, Kazuhiko</p> <p>2015-03-01</p> <p>The purpose of this study was to determine the outcomes and optimal practice patterns of definitive radiotherapy for primary vaginal cancer. Between 1993 and 2012, 49 patients were treated with definitive radiotherapy for primary vaginal cancer in three hospitals. Of these, 15 patients (31%) had clinically positive regional lymph node metastasis. A total of 34 patients (70%) received external beam radiotherapy with high-dose-<span class="hlt">rate</span> brachytherapy (interstitial or intracavitary), and 8 (16%) (with small superficial Stage I tumors) were treated with local radiotherapy. The median follow-up was 33 months (range: 1-169 months). The 3-year overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), and loco-regional control (LRC) <span class="hlt">rates</span> were 83%, 59% and 71%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, the histological type (P = 0.044) was significant risk factors for LRC. In Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) Stage I cases, 3 of 8 patients (38%) who did not undergo prophylactic lymph node irradiation had lymph node <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>, compared with 2 of 12 patients (17%) who underwent prophylactic pelvic irradiation. For Stage III-IV tumors, the local <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> was 50% and the lymph node <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> was 40%. Patients with FIGO Stage I/II or clinical Stage N1 had a higher <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> with treatment using a single modality compared with the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> using combined modalities. In conclusion, our treatment outcomes for vaginal cancer were acceptable, but external beam radiotherapy with brachytherapy (interstitial or intracavitary) was needed regardless of FIGO stage. Improvement of treatment outcomes in cases of FIGO Stage III or IV remains a significant challenge. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Japan Radiation Research Society and Japanese Society for Radiation Oncology.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/30080','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/30080"><span>Relationship of host <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> in fungi to <span class="hlt">rates</span> of tropical leaf decomposition</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a></p> <p>Mirna E. Santanaa; JeanD. Lodgeb; Patricia Lebowc</p> <p>2004-01-01</p> <p>Here we explore the significance of fungal diversity on ecosystem processes by testing whether microfungal ‘preferences’ for (i.e., host <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>) different tropical leaf species increases the <span class="hlt">rate</span> of decomposition. We used pairwise combinations of girradiated litter of five tree species with cultures of two dominant microfungi derived from each plant in a microcosm...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/27114','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/27114"><span>Relationship of host <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> in fungi to <span class="hlt">rates</span> of tropical leaf decomposition</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a></p> <p>Mirna E. Santana; D. Jean Lodge; Patricia Lebow</p> <p>2005-01-01</p> <p>Here we explore the significance of fungal diversity on ecosystem processes by testing whether microfungal ‘preferences’ for (i.e., host <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>) different tropical leaf species increases the <span class="hlt">rate</span> of decomposition. We used pairwise combinations of [gamma]-irradiated litter of five tree species with cultures of two dominant microfungi derived from each plant in a...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70025174','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70025174"><span>Why <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> correlate weakly with the solid Earth tides: Effects of periodic stress on the <span class="hlt">rate</span> and probability of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Beeler, N.M.; Lockner, D.A.</p> <p>2003-01-01</p> <p>We provide an explanation why <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence does not correlate well with the daily solid Earth tides. The explanation is derived from analysis of laboratory experiments in which faults are loaded to quasiperiodic failure by the combined action of a constant stressing <span class="hlt">rate</span>, intended to simulate tectonic loading, and a small sinusoidal stress, analogous to the Earth tides. Event populations whose failure times correlate with the oscillating stress show two modes of response; the response mode depends on the stressing frequency. Correlation that is consistent with stress threshold failure models, e.g., Coulomb failure, results when the period of stress oscillation exceeds a characteristic time tn; the degree of correlation between failure time and the phase of the driving stress depends on the amplitude and frequency of the stress oscillation and on the stressing <span class="hlt">rate</span>. When the period of the oscillating stress is less than tn, the correlation is not consistent with threshold failure models, and much higher stress amplitudes are required to induce detectable correlation with the oscillating stress. The physical interpretation of tn is the duration of failure nucleation. Behavior at the higher frequencies is consistent with a second-order dependence of the fault strength on sliding <span class="hlt">rate</span> which determines the duration of nucleation and damps the response to stress change at frequencies greater than 1/tn. Simple extrapolation of these results to the Earth suggests a very weak correlation of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> with the daily Earth tides, one that would require >13,000 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> to detect. On the basis of our experiments and analysis, the absence of definitive daily triggering of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> by the Earth tides requires that for <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, tn exceeds the daily tidal period. The experiments suggest that the minimum typical duration of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> nucleation on the San Andreas fault system is ???1 year.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22939327','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22939327"><span>Idiopathic bone cavities of the mandible: an update on <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> and case report.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Horne, Robert P; Meara, Daniel J; Granite, Edwin L</p> <p>2014-02-01</p> <p>Idiopathic bone cavities (IBCs) are usually an incidental finding, often found in long bones but also in the craniofacial skeleton. Typically solitary, IBCs can present at multiple sites. Surgical exploration alone has proved effective, although <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> does occur, particularly in cases with multiple lesions. The average time necessary to observe either <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> or complete healing has been reported to be more than 3 years. Previously reported low <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> for IBCs in the craniofacial skeleton may have been artificially low because of insufficient long-term follow-up. Providers should be prepared for long-term follow-up and care of these patients. The case of the patient presented here supports the need for long-term follow-up. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018AIPC.1967d0056C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018AIPC.1967d0056C"><span>Ads' click-through <span class="hlt">rates</span> predicting based on gated <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> unit neural networks</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chen, Qiaohong; Guo, Zixuan; Dong, Wen; Jin, Lingzi</p> <p>2018-05-01</p> <p>In order to improve the effect of online advertising and to increase the revenue of advertising, the gated <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> unit neural networks(GRU) model is used as the ads' click through <span class="hlt">rates</span>(CTR) predicting. Combined with the characteristics of gated unit structure and the unique of time sequence in data, using BPTT algorithm to train the model. Furthermore, by optimizing the step length algorithm of the gated unit <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> neural networks, making the model reach optimal point better and faster in less iterative rounds. The experiment results show that the model based on the gated <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> unit neural networks and its optimization of step length algorithm has the better effect on the ads' CTR predicting, which helps advertisers, media and audience achieve a win-win and mutually beneficial situation in Three-Side Game.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19039163','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19039163"><span>The effect of orthostasis on <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> quantification analysis of heart <span class="hlt">rate</span> and blood pressure dynamics.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Javorka, M; Turianikova, Z; Tonhajzerova, I; Javorka, K; Baumert, M</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of orthostatic challenge on <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> plot based complexity measures of heart <span class="hlt">rate</span> and blood pressure variability (HRV and BPV). HRV and BPV complexities were assessed in 28 healthy subjects over 15 min in the supine and standing positions. The complexity of HRV and BPV was assessed based on <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> quantification analysis. HRV complexity was reduced along with the HRV magnitude after changing from the supine to the standing position. In contrast, the BPV magnitude increased and BPV complexity decreased upon standing. <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> quantification analysis (RQA) of HRV and BPV is sensitive to orthostatic challenge and might therefore be suited to assess changes in autonomic neural outflow to the cardiovascular system.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17576069','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17576069"><span>Long-term <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> of pleomorphic adenoma and postoperative facial nerve paresis (in parotid surgery).</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Zernial, Oliver; Springer, Ingo N; Warnke, Patrick; Härle, Franz; Risick, Christian; Wiltfang, Jörg</p> <p>2007-04-01</p> <p>The purpose of this study was to evaluate <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> and comorbidity in patients with pleomorphic adenomas of patients after superficial and total conservative parotidectomy. Localization of pleomorphic adenomas, age, sex distribution and facial nerve function of 73 patients were examined in this retrospective study. The <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> could be determined in 43 of these patients. The interval between surgery and last recall varied between 2 and 20 years (median: 8.1 years). Most of the patients were female (67%) with a parotid pleomorphic adenoma. No <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> was found regard less of whether a superficial or total conservative parotidectomy had been performed. Our data did show that the total conservative parotidectomy is associated with a higher incidence of temporary impaired facial nerve function, which was seen in 42% of this group. Temporary decreased nerve function after superficial parotidectomy was rare being apparent in only 16% of this group. A more radical procedure does not significantly lower the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span>. We suggest that the indication for a total conservative parotidectomy in cases of superficial adenomas should be considered carefully.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25345405','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25345405"><span>Regression analysis of mixed <span class="hlt">recurrent</span>-event and panel-count data with additive <span class="hlt">rate</span> models.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Zhu, Liang; Zhao, Hui; Sun, Jianguo; Leisenring, Wendy; Robison, Leslie L</p> <p>2015-03-01</p> <p>Event-history studies of <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> events are often conducted in fields such as demography, epidemiology, medicine, and social sciences (Cook and Lawless, 2007, The Statistical Analysis of <span class="hlt">Recurrent</span> Events. New York: Springer-Verlag; Zhao et al., 2011, Test 20, 1-42). For such analysis, two types of data have been extensively investigated: <span class="hlt">recurrent</span>-event data and panel-count data. However, in practice, one may face a third type of data, mixed <span class="hlt">recurrent</span>-event and panel-count data or mixed event-history data. Such data occur if some study subjects are monitored or observed continuously and thus provide <span class="hlt">recurrent</span>-event data, while the others are observed only at discrete times and hence give only panel-count data. A more general situation is that each subject is observed continuously over certain time periods but only at discrete times over other time periods. There exists little literature on the analysis of such mixed data except that published by Zhu et al. (2013, Statistics in Medicine 32, 1954-1963). In this article, we consider the regression analysis of mixed data using the additive <span class="hlt">rate</span> model and develop some estimating equation-based approaches to estimate the regression parameters of interest. Both finite sample and asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established, and the numerical studies suggest that the proposed methodology works well for practical situations. The approach is applied to a Childhood Cancer Survivor Study that motivated this study. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26386496','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26386496"><span>Reduction of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> of benign paroxysmal positional vertigo by treatment of severe vitamin D deficiency.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Talaat, Hossam Sanyelbhaa; Kabel, Abdel-Magied Hasan; Khaliel, Lobna Hamed; Abuhadied, Ghada; El-Naga, Heba Abd El-Rehem Abo; Talaat, Ahmed Sanyelbhaa</p> <p>2016-06-01</p> <p>Several studies correlated between vitamin D deficiency and the development, and the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of benign positional paroxysmal vertigo (BPPV), but none of them proved that treatment of vitamin D deficiency would reduce the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> of BPPV. This study aims to detect the effect of treatment of severe vitamin D deficiency on the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> of BPPV. The inclusion criteria of the study group were: (1) Unilateral, idiopathic, posterior canal BPPV with no history suggestive of secondary BPPV and (2) 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 level ≤10 ng/ml. All subjects enrolled in the current study underwent detailed clinical history, audiovestibular evaluation consisting of pure-tone audiometry, Immittancemetry, Videonystugmography, serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 assessment, and Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Vitamin D therapy was prescribed for the study group. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 level was evaluated twice, on recruitment into the study group and 3 months after commencing vitamin D therapy. According to the results of the second evaluation of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D3, the study group was subdivided into two subgroups: Subgroup (I): including 28 subjects who disclosed elevation of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 level; improvement ≥10 ng/ml. Subgroup (II): including 65 patients who disclosed elevation of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 levels <10 ng/ml. The study group was followed up for 18 months in order to observe the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of BPPV. The differences between both study subgroups (I) & (II) regarding age, sex distribution, and bone mineral density were insignificant. The number of subjects who had <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of BPPV in subgroup (I) was 4 (14%) versus 28 subjects (43%) in subgroup (II). The mean values for <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> attacks/subject in subgroups (I) & (II) were 0.18, and 0.66 attack/subject respectively; these differences between both subgroups were of high statistical significance (p<0.01). The Odds Ratio for development of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of BPPV in subjects with</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19216690','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19216690"><span>Decreased <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> in the laparoscopic herniorraphy in children: comparison between two techniques.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Marte, Antonio; Sabatino, Maria D; Borrelli, Micaela; Parmeggiani, Pio</p> <p>2009-04-01</p> <p>The laparoscopic herniorraphy in children is still associated to a high <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span>. The aim of this study was to assess whether the addition of the lateral incision of the sac to the sole suture of the inner inguinal ring could reduce the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span>. A retrospective review was performed of the collected data of 248 laparoscopic inguinal hernia repairs in 224 children (175 males, 49 females) between 8 months and 11 years of age (mean age, 5 years; median, 4) in our institution from January 2004 to December 2007. The hernia was unilateral in 204 patients (133 on the right side, 71 on the left) and bilateral in 20 patients. A 5-mm umbilical camera port for a 0-degree laparoscopic optics and two operative 2- or 3-mm reusable trocars inserted in the lower right and left quadrants of the abdominal wall were utilized. In a group of 123 patients, the inner inguinal ring was closed, adopting a W-shaped suture (inguinal ring suture; IRS). In the other group of 101 patients, a lateral incision of the sac of 1-2 cm was carried out before the W-shaped suture of the inner inguinal ring (inguinal ring incision suture; IRIS). At a mean follow-up of 24 months (range, 6-36), 5 of 133 (3.76%) hernias recurred between 6 and 12 months after surgery in the IRS group. In the IRIS group, none of the patients presented with <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. The <span class="hlt">rate</span> of <span class="hlt">recurrences</span> in the two groups was compared and analyzed with the x2 test. The resulting difference was statistically significant (P < 0.05). In our experience, the incision of the peritoneum lateral to the internal inguinal ring and the W-shaped suture, compared to the sole W-shaped suture, is safe and effective in preventing hernia <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1111713-new-constraints-slip-rates-recurrence-intervals-strain-partitioning-beneath-pyramid-lake-nevada','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1111713-new-constraints-slip-rates-recurrence-intervals-strain-partitioning-beneath-pyramid-lake-nevada"><span>New constraints on slip-<span class="hlt">rates</span>, <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> intervals, and strain partitioning beneath Pyramid Lake, Nevada</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Eisses, Amy</p> <p></p> <p>A high-resolution CHIRP seismic survey of Pyramid Lake, Nevada, located within the northern Walker Lane Deformation Belt, was conducted in summer 2010. Seismic CHIRP data with submeter vertical accuracy, together with piston and gravity cores, were used to calculate Holocene vertical slip <span class="hlt">rates</span>, relative <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> timing, and produce the first complete fault map beneath the lake. More than 500 line-kilometers of CHIRP data imaged complex fault patterns throughout the basin. Fault architecture beneath Pyramid Lake highlights a polarity flip, where down-to-the west patterns of sedimentation near the dextral Pyramid Lake fault to the south give way to down-to-the-east geometries tomore » the north within a mostly normal (i.e., Lake Range fault) and transtensional environment. The Lake Range fault predominantly controls extensional deformation within the northern two-thirds of the basin and exhibits varying degrees of asymmetric tilting and divergence due to along-strike segmentation. This observation is likely a combination of fault segments splaying onshore moving the focus of extension away from the lake coupled with some true along-strike differences in slip-<span class="hlt">rate</span>. The combination of normal and oblique-slip faults in the northern basin gives Pyramid Lake its distinctive “fanning open to the north” tectonic geometry. The dense network of oblique-slip faults in the northwestern region of the lake, in contrast to the well-defined Lake Range fault, are short and discontinuous in nature, and possible represent a nascent shear zone. Preliminary vertical slip-<span class="hlt">rates</span> measured across the Lake Range and other faults provide new estimates on the extension across the Pyramid Lake basin. A minimum vertical slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> of ~1.0 mm/yr is estimated along the Lake Range fault, which yields a potential <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> magnitude range between M6.4 and M7.0. A rapid influx of sediment was deposited shortly after the end of the Tioga glaciation somewhere between 12.5 ka to 9.5 ka and</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li class="active"><span>8</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_8 --> <div id="page_9" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li class="active"><span>9</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="161"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.T23D..04A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.T23D..04A"><span><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Cycle Simulations with <span class="hlt">Rate</span>-and-State Friction and Linear and Nonlinear Viscoelasticity</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Allison, K. L.; Dunham, E. M.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>We have implemented a parallel code that simultaneously models both <span class="hlt">rate</span>-and-state friction on a strike-slip fault and off-fault viscoelastic deformation throughout the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle in 2D. Because we allow fault slip to evolve with a <span class="hlt">rate</span>-and-state friction law and do not impose the depth of the brittle-to-ductile transition, we are able to address: the physical processes limiting the depth of large ruptures (with hazard implications); the degree of strain localization with depth; the relative partitioning of fault slip and viscous deformation in the brittle-to-ductile transition zone; and the relative contributions of afterslip and viscous flow to postseismic surface deformation. The method uses a discretization that accommodates variable off-fault material properties, depth-dependent frictional properties, and linear and nonlinear viscoelastic rheologies. All phases of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle are modeled, allowing the model to spontaneously generate <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, and to capture afterslip and postseismic viscous flow. We compare the effects of a linear Maxwell rheology, often used in geodetic models, with those of a nonlinear power law rheology, which laboratory data indicates more accurately represents the lower crust and upper mantle. The viscosity of the Maxwell rheology is set by power law rheological parameters with an assumed a geotherm and strain <span class="hlt">rate</span>, producing a viscosity that exponentially decays with depth and is constant in time. In contrast, the power law rheology will evolve an effective viscosity that is a function of the temperature profile and the stress state, and therefore varies both spatially and temporally. We will also integrate the energy equation for the thermomechanical problem, capturing frictional heat generation on the fault and off-fault viscous shear heating, and allowing these in turn to alter the effective viscosity.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/21372172-high-dose-rate-intraoperative-radiation-therapy-recurrent-head-neck-cancer','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/21372172-high-dose-rate-intraoperative-radiation-therapy-recurrent-head-neck-cancer"><span>High-Dose-<span class="hlt">Rate</span> Intraoperative Radiation Therapy for <span class="hlt">Recurrent</span> Head-and-Neck Cancer</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Perry, David J.; Chan, Kelvin; Wolden, Suzanne</p> <p>2010-03-15</p> <p>Purpose: To report the use of high-dose-<span class="hlt">rate</span> intraoperative radiation therapy (HDR-IORT) for <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> head-and-neck cancer (HNC) at a single institution. Methods and Materials: Between July 1998 and February 2007, 34 patients with <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> HNC received 38 HDR-IORT treatments using a Harrison-Anderson-Mick applicator with Iridium-192. A single fraction (median, 15 Gy; range, 10-20 Gy) was delivered intraoperatively after surgical resection to the region considered at risk for close or positive margins. In all patients, the target region was previously treated with external beam radiation therapy (median dose, 63 Gy; range, 24-74 Gy). The 1- and 2-year estimates for in-field local progression-freemore » survival (LPFS), locoregional progression-free survival (LRPFS), distant metastases-free survival (DMFS), and overall survival (OS) were calculated. Results: With a median follow-up for surviving patients of 23 months (range, 6-54 months), 8 patients (24%) are alive and without evidence of disease. The 1- and 2-year LPFS <span class="hlt">rates</span> are 66% and 56%, respectively, with 13 (34%) in-field <span class="hlt">recurrences</span>. The 1- and 2-year DMFS <span class="hlt">rates</span> are 81% and 62%, respectively, with 10 patients (29%) developing distant failure. The 1- and 2-year OS <span class="hlt">rates</span> are 73% and 55%, respectively, with a median time to OS of 24 months. Severe complications included cellulitis (5 patients), fistula or wound complications (3 patients), osteoradionecrosis (1 patient), and radiation-induced trigeminal neuralgia (1 patient). Conclusions: HDR-IORT has shown encouraging local control outcomes in patients with <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> HNC with acceptable <span class="hlt">rates</span> of treatment-related morbidity. Longer follow-up with a larger cohort of patients is needed to fully assess the benefit of this procedure.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EP%26S...68...40S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EP%26S...68...40S"><span>Fatality <span class="hlt">rates</span> of the M w ~8.2, 1934, Bihar-Nepal <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and comparison with the April 2015 Gorkha <span class="hlt">earthquake</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sapkota, Soma Nath; Bollinger, Laurent; Perrier, Frédéric</p> <p>2016-03-01</p> <p>Large Himalayan <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> expose rapidly growing populations of millions of people to high levels of seismic hazards, in particular in northeast India and Nepal. Calibrating vulnerability models specific to this region of the world is therefore crucial to the development of reliable mitigation measures. Here, we reevaluate the >15,700 casualties (8500 in Nepal and 7200 in India) from the M w ~8.2, 1934, Bihar-Nepal <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and calculate the fatality <span class="hlt">rates</span> for this <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> using an estimation of the population derived from two census held in 1921 and 1942. Values reach 0.7-1 % in the epicentral region, located in eastern Nepal, and 2-5 % in the urban areas of the Kathmandu valley. Assuming a constant vulnerability, we obtain, if the same <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> would have repeated in 2011, fatalities of 33,000 in Nepal and 50,000 in India. Fast-growing population in India indeed must unavoidably lead to increased levels of casualty compared with Nepal, where the population growth is smaller. Aside from that probably robust fact, extrapolations have to be taken with great caution. Among other effects, building and life vulnerability could depend on population concentration and evolution of construction methods. Indeed, fatalities of the April 25, 2015, M w 7.8 Gorkha <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> indicated on average a reduction in building vulnerability in urban areas, while rural areas remained highly vulnerable. While effective scaling laws, function of the building stock, seem to describe these differences adequately, vulnerability in the case of an M w >8.2 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> remains largely unknown. Further research should be carried out urgently so that better prevention strategies can be implemented and building codes reevaluated on, adequately combining detailed ancient and modern data.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70189423','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70189423"><span>The effects of varying injection <span class="hlt">rates</span> in Osage County, Oklahoma, on the 2016 Mw5.8 Pawnee <span class="hlt">earthquake</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Barbour, Andrew J.; Norbeck, Jack H.; Rubinstein, Justin L.</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>The 2016 Mw 5.8 Pawnee <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurred in a region with active wastewater injection into a basal formation group. Prior to the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, fluid injection <span class="hlt">rates</span> at most wells were relatively steady, but newly collected data show significant increases in injection <span class="hlt">rate</span> in the years leading up to <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. For the same time period, the total volumes of injected wastewater were roughly equivalent between variable‐<span class="hlt">rate</span> and constant‐<span class="hlt">rate</span> wells. To understand the possible influence of these changes in injection, we simulate the variable‐<span class="hlt">rate</span> injection history and its constant‐<span class="hlt">rate</span> equivalent in a layered poroelastic half‐space to explore the interplay between pore‐pressure effects and poroelastic effects on the fault leading up to the mainshock. In both cases, poroelastic stresses contribute a significant proportion of Coulomb failure stresses on the fault compared to pore‐pressure increases alone, but the resulting changes in seismicity <span class="hlt">rate</span>, calculated using a rate‐and‐state frictional model, are many times larger when poroelastic effects are included, owing to enhanced stressing <span class="hlt">rates</span>. In particular, the variable‐<span class="hlt">rate</span> simulation predicts more than an order of magnitude increase in seismicity <span class="hlt">rate</span> above background <span class="hlt">rates</span> compared to the constant‐<span class="hlt">rate</span> simulation with equivalent volume. The observed cumulative density of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> prior to the mainshock within 10 km of the injection source exhibits remarkable agreement with seismicity predicted by the variable‐<span class="hlt">rate</span> injection case.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.T13C2619I','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.T13C2619I"><span>Statistical analysis of seismicity <span class="hlt">rate</span> change in the Tokyo Metropolitan area due to the 2011 Tohoku <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ishibe, T.; Sakai, S.; Shimazaki, K.; Satake, K.; Tsuruoka, H.; Nakagawa, S.; Hirata, N.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>We examined a relationship between the Coulomb Failure Function (ΔCFF) due to the Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (March 11, 2011; MJMA 9.0) and the seismicity <span class="hlt">rate</span> change in Tokyo Metropolitan area following March 2011. Because of large variation in focal mechanism in the Kanto region, the receiver faults for the ΔCFF were assumed to be two nodal planes of small (M ≥ 2.0) <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> which occurred before and after the Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The seismicity <span class="hlt">rate</span> changes, particularly the <span class="hlt">rate</span> increase, are well explained by ΔCFF due to the gigantic thrusting, while some other possible factors (e.g., dynamic stress changes, excess of fluid dehydration) may also contribute the <span class="hlt">rate</span> changes. Among 30,746 previous events provided by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (M ≥ 2.0, July 1979 - July 2003), we used as receiver faults, almost 16,000 events indicate significant increase in ΔCFF, while about 8,000 events show significant decrease. Positive ΔCFF predicts seismicity <span class="hlt">rate</span> increase in southwestern Ibaraki and northern Chiba prefectures where intermediate-depth <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> occur, and in shallow crust of the Izu-Oshima and Hakone regions. In these regions, seismicity <span class="hlt">rates</span> significantly increased after the Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The seismicity has increased since March 2011 with respect to the Epidemic Type of Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, 1988), indicating that the <span class="hlt">rate</span> change was due to the stress increase by the Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The activated seismicity in the Izu and Hakone regions rapidly decayed following the Omori-Utsu formula, while the increased <span class="hlt">rate</span> of seismicity in the southwestern Ibaraki and northern Chiba prefectures is still continuing. We also calculated ΔCFF due to the 2011 Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> for the focal mechanism solutions of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> between April 2008 and October 2011 recorded on the Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net). The ΔCFF values for the <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> after March 2011 show more</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.9202L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.9202L"><span>Stress Field Variation after the 2001 Skyros <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span>, Greece, Derived from Seismicity <span class="hlt">Rate</span> Changes</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Leptokaropoulos, K.; Papadimitriou, E.; Orlecka-Sikora, B.; Karakostas, V.</p> <p>2012-04-01</p> <p>The spatial variation of the stress field (ΔCFF) after the 2001 strong (Mw=6.4) Skyros <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in North Aegean Sea, Greece, is investigated in association with the changes of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> production <span class="hlt">rates</span>. A detailed slip model is considered in which the causative fault is consisted of several sub-faults with different coseismic slip onto each one of them. First the spatial distribution of aftershock productivity is compared with the static stress changes due to the coseismic slip. Calculations of ΔCFF are performed at different depths inside the seismogenic layer, defined from the vertical distribution of the aftershocks. Seismicity <span class="hlt">rates</span> of the smaller magnitude events with M≥Mc for different time increments before and after the main shock are then derived from the application of a Probability Density Function (PDF). These <span class="hlt">rates</span> are computed by spatially smoothing the seismicity and for this purpose a normal grid of rectangular cells is superimposed onto the area and the PDF determines seismicity <span class="hlt">rate</span> values at the center of each cell. The differences between the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence <span class="hlt">rates</span> before and after the main shock are compared and used as input data in a stress inversion algorithm based upon the <span class="hlt">Rate</span>/State dependent friction concept in order to provide an independent estimation of stress changes. This model incorporates the physical properties of the fault zones (characteristic relaxation time, fault constitutive parameters, effective friction coefficient) with a probabilistic estimation of the spatial distribution of seismicity <span class="hlt">rates</span>, derived from the application of the PDF. The stress patterns derived from the previously mentioned approaches are compared and the quantitative correlation between the respective results is accomplished by the evaluation of Pearson linear correlation coefficient and its confidence intervals to quantify their significance. Different assumptions and combinations of the physical and statistical parameters are tested for</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28059915','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28059915"><span>Bio-Thiersch as an Adjunct to Perineal Proctectomy Reduces <span class="hlt">Rates</span> of <span class="hlt">Recurrent</span> Rectal Prolapse.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Eftaiha, Saleh M; Calata, Jed F; Sugrue, Jeremy J; Marecik, Slawomir J; Prasad, Leela M; Mellgren, Anders; Nordenstam, Johan; Park, John J</p> <p>2017-02-01</p> <p>The <span class="hlt">rates</span> of <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> prolapse after perineal proctectomy vary widely in the literature, with incidences ranging between 0% and 50%. The Thiersch procedure, first described in 1891 for the treatment of rectal prolapse, involves encircling the anus with a foreign material with the goal of confining the prolapsing rectum above the anus. The Bio-Thiersch procedure uses biological mesh for anal encirclement and can be used as an adjunct to perineal proctectomy for rectal prolapse to reduce <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. The aim of this study was to evaluate the Bio-Thiersch procedure as an adjunct to perineal proctectomy and its impact on <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> compared with perineal proctectomy alone. A retrospective review of consecutive patients undergoing perineal proctectomy with and without Bio-Thiersch was performed. Procedures took place in the Division of Colon and Rectal Surgery at a tertiary academic teaching hospital. Patients who had undergone perineal proctectomy and those who received perineal proctectomy with Bio-Thiersch were evaluated and compared. All of the patients with rectal prolapse received perineal proctectomy with levatorplasty, and a proportion of those patients had a Bio-Thiersch placed as an adjunct. The incidence of <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> rectal prolapse after perineal proctectomy alone or perineal proctectomy with Bio-Thiersch was documented. Sixty-two patients underwent perineal proctectomy (8 had a previous prolapse procedure), and 25 patients underwent perineal proctectomy with Bio-Thiersch (12 had a previous prolapse procedure). Patients who received perineal proctectomy with Bio-Thiersch had a lower <span class="hlt">rate</span> of <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> rectal prolapse (p < 0.05) despite a higher proportion of them having had a previous prolapse procedure (p < 0.01). Perineal proctectomy with Bio-Thiersch had a lower <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> over time versus perineal proctectomy alone (p < 0.05). This study was limited by nature of being a retrospective review. Bio-Thiersch as an adjunct to perineal proctectomy may reduce</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.H43C1466H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.H43C1466H"><span>Gradual decay of elevated landslide <span class="hlt">rates</span> after a large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in the Finisterre Mountains, Papua New Guinea</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hovius, N.; Marc, O.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>Large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> can cause widespread mass wasting and landslide <span class="hlt">rates</span> can stay high after a seismic event. The <span class="hlt">rate</span> of decay of seismically enhanced mass wasting determines the total erosional effect of an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. It is also an important term in the post-seismic redevelopment of epicentral areas. Using a time series of Landsat images spanning 1990-2010, we have determined the evolution of landslide <span class="hlt">rates</span> in the western Finisterre Mountains, Papua New Guinea. There, two <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> with Mw 6.7and 6.9 occurred at depth of about 20 km on the range-bounding Ramu-Markam fault in 1993. These <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> triggered landslides with a total volume of about 0.15 km3. Landslide <span class="hlt">rates</span> were up to four orders of magnitude higher after the <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> than in preceding years, decaying to background values over a period of 2-3 years. Due to this short decay time, seismically induced landslides added only 5% to the volume of co-seismic landslides. This contrasts with another well-documented example, the 1999 Chi-Chi <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in Taiwan, where post-seismic landsliding may have increased the total eroded volume by a factor 3-5. In the Finisterre case, landslide <span class="hlt">rates</span> may have been slightly less than normal for up to a decade after the decay period, but this effect is partially obscured by the impact of a smaller <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in 1997. Regardless, the <span class="hlt">rate</span> of decay of landslide incidence was unrelated to both the seismic moment release in aftershocks and local precipitation. A control on this decay <span class="hlt">rate</span> has not yet been identified.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4593482','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4593482"><span>Regression Analysis of Mixed <span class="hlt">Recurrent</span>-Event and Panel-Count Data with Additive <span class="hlt">Rate</span> Models</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Zhu, Liang; Zhao, Hui; Sun, Jianguo; Leisenring, Wendy; Robison, Leslie L.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Summary Event-history studies of <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> events are often conducted in fields such as demography, epidemiology, medicine, and social sciences (Cook and Lawless, 2007; Zhao et al., 2011). For such analysis, two types of data have been extensively investigated: <span class="hlt">recurrent</span>-event data and panel-count data. However, in practice, one may face a third type of data, mixed <span class="hlt">recurrent</span>-event and panel-count data or mixed event-history data. Such data occur if some study subjects are monitored or observed continuously and thus provide <span class="hlt">recurrent</span>-event data, while the others are observed only at discrete times and hence give only panel-count data. A more general situation is that each subject is observed continuously over certain time periods but only at discrete times over other time periods. There exists little literature on the analysis of such mixed data except that published by Zhu et al. (2013). In this paper, we consider the regression analysis of mixed data using the additive <span class="hlt">rate</span> model and develop some estimating equation-based approaches to estimate the regression parameters of interest. Both finite sample and asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established, and the numerical studies suggest that the proposed methodology works well for practical situations. The approach is applied to a Childhood Cancer Survivor Study that motivated this study. PMID:25345405</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25273900','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25273900"><span>Evidence for ASD <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> and reproductive stoppage from large UK ASD research family databases.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Wood, Claire L; Warnell, Frances; Johnson, Mary; Hames, Annette; Pearce, Mark S; McConachie, Helen; Parr, Jeremy R</p> <p>2015-02-01</p> <p>Following a diagnosis of a developmental disorder such as autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in early childhood, parents may decide to have fewer children than previously planned. The tendency for families to halt reproduction after receiving a diagnosis for one child is known as reproductive stoppage. Stoppage may lead to an underestimate of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> risk estimates of parents having more than one child with ASD. Using two large UK ASD family databases, we investigated <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> for ASD and evidence for reproductive stoppage for both ASD and undiagnosed ASD/broader autism phenotype in a subgroup of families. Reproductive stoppage was tested for using the Mann-Whitney U-test to disprove the null hypothesis that affected and nonaffected children were distributed randomly by birth order. Dahlberg's later-sib method was used to estimate <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> risk and take stoppage into account. Data were available from 299 families (660 children) including 327 with ASD. Ten percent of the complete families had more than one child with an ASD. Using Dahlberg's later-sib method, the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> risk for ASD was 24.7% overall and 50.0% in families with two or more older siblings with ASD. Children with ASD were born significantly later in families than those without ASD in all sibship combinations. This study shows strong evidence that ASD is associated with reproductive stoppage. These data have important implications for family planning and genetic counseling. © 2014 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22254904','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22254904"><span><span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> quantification analysis of heart <span class="hlt">rate</span> variability and respiratory flow series in patients on weaning trials.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Arcentales, Andrés; Giraldo, Beatriz F; Caminal, Pere; Benito, Salvador; Voss, Andreas</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>Autonomic nervous system regulates the behavior of cardiac and respiratory systems. Its assessment during the ventilator weaning can provide information about physio-pathological imbalances. This work proposes a non linear analysis of the complexity of the heart <span class="hlt">rate</span> variability (HRV) and breathing duration (T(Tot)) applying <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> plot (RP) and their interaction joint <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> plot (JRP). A total of 131 patients on weaning trials from mechanical ventilation were analyzed: 92 patients with successful weaning (group S) and 39 patients that failed to maintain spontaneous breathing (group F). The results show that parameters as determinism (DET), average diagonal line length (L), and entropy (ENTR), are statistically significant with RP for T(Tot) series, but not with HRV. When comparing the groups with JRP, all parameters have been relevant. In all cases, mean values of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> quantification analysis are higher in the group S than in the group F. The main differences between groups were found on the diagonal and vertical structures of the joint <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> plot.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ApJ...860..110S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ApJ...860..110S"><span>The Masses and Accretion <span class="hlt">Rates</span> of White Dwarfs in Classical and <span class="hlt">Recurrent</span> Novae</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Shara, Michael M.; Prialnik, Dina; Hillman, Yael; Kovetz, Attay</p> <p>2018-06-01</p> <p>Models have long predicted that the frequency-averaged masses of white dwarfs (WDs) in Galactic classical novae are twice as large as those of field WDs. Only a handful of dynamically well-determined nova WDs masses have been published, leaving the theoretical predictions poorly tested. The <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> time distributions and mass accretion <span class="hlt">rate</span> distributions of novae are even more poorly known. To address these deficiencies, we have combined our extensive simulations of nova eruptions with the Strope et al. and Schaefer databases of outburst characteristics of Galactic classical and <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> novae (RNe) to determine the masses of 92 WDs in novae. We find that the mean mass (frequency-averaged mean mass) of 82 Galactic classical novae is 1.06 (1.13) M ⊙, while the mean mass of 10 RNe is 1.31 M ⊙. These masses, and the observed nova outburst amplitude and decline time distributions allow us to determine the long-term mass accretion <span class="hlt">rate</span> distribution of classical novae. Remarkably, that value is just 1.3 × 10‑10 M ⊙ yr‑1, which is an order of magnitude smaller than that of cataclysmic binaries in the decades before and after classical nova eruptions. This predicts that old novae become low-mass transfer <span class="hlt">rate</span> systems, and hence dwarf novae, for most of the time between nova eruptions. We determine the mass accretion <span class="hlt">rates</span> of each of the 10 known Galactic <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> nova, finding them to be in the range of 10‑7–10‑8 M ⊙ yr‑1. We are able to predict the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> time distribution of novae and compare it with the predictions of population synthesis models.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25952091','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25952091"><span><span class="hlt">Rate</span> of duodenal-biliary reflux increases in patients with <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> common bile duct stones: evidence from barium meal examination.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Zhang, Rongchun; Luo, Hui; Pan, Yanglin; Zhao, Lina; Dong, Junqiang; Liu, Zhiguo; Wang, Xiangping; Tao, Qin; Lu, Guohua; Guo, Xuegang</p> <p>2015-10-01</p> <p>Stone <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> is a common late adverse event after ERCP in patients with common bile duct stones (CBDS). Duodenal-biliary reflux (DBR) is considered a major cause of CBDS <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. However, specific evidence is still lacking. To investigate the DBR <span class="hlt">rate</span> in patients with <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> CBDS after ERCP. A prospective case-control study. A tertiary center. During follow-up, patients with a history of either <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> CBDS (<span class="hlt">recurrence</span> group) or nonrecurrent CBDS (control group) were invited to participate in the study. All patients had previously undergone successful CBDS removal by ERCP. Patients in the control group were matched with the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> group by age and gender in a 1:1 ratio. Patients with gallbladder stones, hepatolithiasis, remnant CBDS, CBD strictures, or stents were excluded. Standard barium meal examination, MRCP, and enhanced abdominal CT. DBR. Thirty-two patients with a history of <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> CBDS and 32 matched control subjects were enrolled. Baseline characteristics and parameters regarding the first ERCP were comparable between the 2 groups. The DBR <span class="hlt">rate</span> was significantly higher in the <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> than in the control group (68.8% vs 15.6%, P < .001). Multivariate analysis indicated that DBR (OR, 9.59; 95% CI, 2.65-34.76) and acute distal CBD angulation (OR, 5.48; 95% CI, 1.52-19.78) were independent factors associated with CBDS <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. DBR <span class="hlt">rates</span> in patients with no, single, or multiple <span class="hlt">recurrences</span> were 15.6%, 60.9%, and 88.9%, respectively (P < .001). Intrahepatic bile duct reflux was more common in patients with multiple <span class="hlt">recurrences</span>. Small sample size. DBR is correlated with CBDS <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> in patients who had previously undergone ERCP. DBR and acute distal CBD angulation are 2 independent risk factors related to stone <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. ( NCT02329977.) Copyright © 2015 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28224817','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28224817"><span>Is the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> of chronic subdural hematomas dependent on the duration of drainage?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kale, Aydemir; Öz, İbrahim İlker; Gün, Eren Görkem; Kalaycı, Murat; Gül, Şanser</p> <p>2017-05-01</p> <p>Chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH) is the most frequent type of intracranial hemorrhage which especially affects the elderly. Various surgical techniques have been reported for CSDH treatment; optimal treatment methods are still controversial. In this study, the effects of long drainage durations on results and <span class="hlt">recurrences</span> were investigated in patients on whom closed system drainage with burr hole craniotomy was applied due to CSDH. 90 patients with 105 CSDH were operated between 2008 and 2016. Patients were divided into two groups based on the duration of drainage. Group A (n = 40) was determined as 2-4 days of closed-system drainage, while Group B (n = 50) was recorded as 5-7 days of closed-system drainage. <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> was defined as accumulation of blood in the operation area and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of symptoms within the monitoring period of six months. <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> was observed in 7 (15.6) of the Group A patients and 2 (3.3%) of the Group B patients. There was a statistically significant difference between groups in terms of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> (p = 0.04). Postoperative thickness of hematoma was measured in the first month follow-up computerized tomography. There was a statistically significant difference between groups in terms of postoperative thickness of residual hematoma (p = 0.05). 2-4 days of closed system drainage following burr hole craniotomy is an effective and reliable choice of treatment in CSDH. Nevertheless, increasing the duration of drainage to 5-7 days provided better results without increasing the risk of complication.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2722920','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2722920"><span>Exact Solutions for <span class="hlt">Rate</span> and Synchrony in <span class="hlt">Recurrent</span> Networks of Coincidence Detectors</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Mikula, Shawn; Niebur, Ernst</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>We provide analytical solutions for mean firing <span class="hlt">rates</span> and cross-correlations of coincidence detector neurons in <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> networks with excitatory or inhibitory connectivity with <span class="hlt">rate</span>-modulated steady-state spiking inputs. We use discrete-time finite-state Markov chains to represent network state transition probabilities, which are subsequently used to derive exact analytical solutions for mean firing <span class="hlt">rates</span> and cross-correlations. As illustrated in several examples, the method can be used for modeling cortical microcircuits and clarifying single-neuron and population coding mechanisms. We also demonstrate that increasing firing <span class="hlt">rates</span> do not necessarily translate into increasing cross-correlations, though our results do support the contention that firing <span class="hlt">rates</span> and cross-correlations are likely to be coupled. Our analytical solutions underscore the complexity of the relationship between firing <span class="hlt">rates</span> and cross-correlations. PMID:18439133</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18439133','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18439133"><span>Exact solutions for <span class="hlt">rate</span> and synchrony in <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> networks of coincidence detectors.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Mikula, Shawn; Niebur, Ernst</p> <p>2008-11-01</p> <p>We provide analytical solutions for mean firing <span class="hlt">rates</span> and cross-correlations of coincidence detector neurons in <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> networks with excitatory or inhibitory connectivity, with <span class="hlt">rate</span>-modulated steady-state spiking inputs. We use discrete-time finite-state Markov chains to represent network state transition probabilities, which are subsequently used to derive exact analytical solutions for mean firing <span class="hlt">rates</span> and cross-correlations. As illustrated in several examples, the method can be used for modeling cortical microcircuits and clarifying single-neuron and population coding mechanisms. We also demonstrate that increasing firing <span class="hlt">rates</span> do not necessarily translate into increasing cross-correlations, though our results do support the contention that firing <span class="hlt">rates</span> and cross-correlations are likely to be coupled. Our analytical solutions underscore the complexity of the relationship between firing <span class="hlt">rates</span> and cross-correlations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013JGRB..118.5699B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013JGRB..118.5699B"><span>Active accommodation of plate convergence in Southern Iran: <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> locations, triggered aseismic slip, and regional strain <span class="hlt">rates</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Barnhart, William D.; Lohman, Rowena B.; Mellors, Robert J.</p> <p>2013-10-01</p> <p>We present a catalog of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) constraints on deformation that occurred during <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequences in southern Iran between 1992 and 2011, and explore the implications on the accommodation of large-scale continental convergence between Saudi Arabia and Eurasia within the Zagros Mountains. The Zagros Mountains, a salt-laden fold-and-thrust belt involving ~10 km of sedimentary rocks overlying Precambrian basement rocks, have formed as a result of ongoing continental collision since 10-20 Ma that is currently occurring at a <span class="hlt">rate</span> of ~3 cm/yr. We first demonstrate that there is a biased misfit in <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> locations in global catalogs that likely results from neglect of 3-D velocity structure. Previous work involving two M ~ 6 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> with well-recorded aftershocks has shown that the deformation observed with InSAR may represent triggered slip on faults much shallower than the primary <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, which likely occurred within the basement rocks (>10 km depth). We explore the hypothesis that most of the deformation observed with InSAR spanning <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequences is also due to shallow, triggered slip above a deeper <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, effectively doubling the moment release for each event. We quantify the effects that this extra moment release would have on the discrepancy between seismically and geodetically constrained moment <span class="hlt">rates</span> in the region, finding that even with the extra triggered fault slip, significant aseismic deformation during the interseismic period is necessary to fully explain the convergence between Eurasia and Saudi Arabia.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GeoRL..45.1339B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GeoRL..45.1339B"><span>Volcanic Eruption Forecasts From Accelerating <span class="hlt">Rates</span> of Drumbeat Long-Period <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bell, Andrew F.; Naylor, Mark; Hernandez, Stephen; Main, Ian G.; Gaunt, H. Elizabeth; Mothes, Patricia; Ruiz, Mario</p> <p>2018-02-01</p> <p>Accelerating <span class="hlt">rates</span> of quasiperiodic "drumbeat" long-period <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (LPs) are commonly reported before eruptions at andesite and dacite volcanoes, and promise insights into the nature of fundamental preeruptive processes and improved eruption forecasts. Here we apply a new Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo gamma point process methodology to investigate an exceptionally well-developed sequence of drumbeat LPs preceding a recent large vulcanian explosion at Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador. For more than 24 hr, LP <span class="hlt">rates</span> increased according to the inverse power law trend predicted by material failure theory, and with a retrospectively forecast failure time that agrees with the eruption onset within error. LPs resulted from repeated activation of a single characteristic source driven by accelerating loading, rather than a distributed failure process, showing that similar precursory trends can emerge from quite different underlying physics. Nevertheless, such sequences have clear potential for improving forecasts of eruptions at Tungurahua and analogous volcanoes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25963974','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25963974"><span>Management of Bartholin's cyst and abscess using the Word catheter: implementation, <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> and costs.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Reif, Philipp; Ulrich, Daniela; Bjelic-Radisic, Vesna; Häusler, Martin; Schnedl-Lamprecht, Elke; Tamussino, Karl</p> <p>2015-07-01</p> <p>Bartholin's cysts and abscesses occur in about 2% of women. None of the surgical or conservative treatment approaches have been proven to be superior. The Word catheter is an outpatient treatment option, but little is known about aspects of implementing this therapy in an office setting. The present study's focus is on <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> and organizational requirements of implementing outpatient treatment of Bartholin's cyst and abscess and compares costs of Word catheter treatment and marsupialization. Between March 2013 and May 2014 30 women were included in the study. We measured time consumed for treatment and follow-up and analyzed costs using the Word catheter and marsupialization under general anesthesia. We also assessed the ease of use of the Word catheter for application and removal using a standardized visual analog scale (VAS 1-10). Word catheter treatment was successful in 26/30 cases (87%). Balloon loss before the end of the 4-week treatment period occurred in 11/26 cases with a mean residence time of 19.1 (±10.0) days. None of the patients with early catheter loss developed <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> cyst or abscess. <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> occurred in 1/26 cases (3.8%). Difficulty-score of application was 2 [1-10] and of removal 1 [1], respectively. Costs were € 216 for the treatment in the clinic as compared with € 1584/€ 1282 for surgical marsupialization with a one-night stay or daycare clinic, respectively. The present study indicates that the Word catheter is an easy to handle, low cost outpatient procedure with acceptable short-term <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span>. Treatment costs are seven times lower than for marsupialization. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMNH13B..08A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMNH13B..08A"><span>Insights from interviews regarding high fatality <span class="hlt">rate</span> caused by the 2011 Tohoku-Oki <span class="hlt">earthquake</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ando, M.; Ishida, M.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>The 11 March 2011 Tohoku-Oki <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (Mw9.0) caused approximately 19,000 casualties including missing persons along the entire coast of the Tohoku region. Three historical tsunamis occurred in the past 115 years preceding this tsunami. Since these tsunamis, numerous countermeasures against future tsunamis such as breakwaters, early tsunami warning systems and tsunami evacuation drills were implemented. Despite the preparedness, a number of deaths and missing persons occurred. Although this death <span class="hlt">rate</span> is approximately 4 % of the population in severely inundated areas; 96 % safely evacuated or managed to survive the tsunami. To understand why some people evacuated immediately while others delayed; survivors were interviewed in the northern part of the Tohoku region. Our interviews revealed that many residents obtained no appropriate warnings and many chose to remain in dangerous locations partly because they obtained the wrong idea of the risks. In addition, our interviews also indicated that the resultant high casualties were due to current technology malfunction, underestimated <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> size and tsunami heights, and failure of warning systems. Furthermore, the existing breakwaters provided the local community a false sense of security. The advanced technology did not work properly, especially at the time of the severe disaster. If residents had taken an immediate action after the major shaking stopped, most local residents might have survived considering that safer highlands are within 5 to 20 minute walking distance from the interviewed areas. However, the elderly and physically disabled people would still be in a much more difficult situation to walk such distance into safety. Nevertheless, even if these problems occur in future <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, better knowledge regarding <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and tsunami hazards could save more lives. People must take immediate action without waiting for official warning or help. To avoid similar high tsunami death ratios in the future</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li class="active"><span>9</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_9 --> <div id="page_10" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li class="active"><span>10</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="181"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27979023','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27979023"><span><span class="hlt">Rate</span> of <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> anaphylaxis and associated risk factors among Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents: A population-based study.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Lee, Sangil; Bashore, Curtis; Lohse, Christine M; Bellolio, M Fernanda; Chamberlain, Alanna; Yuki, Kumi; Hess, Erik P; Campbell, Ronna L</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>The <span class="hlt">rate</span> and risk factors for <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of anaphylaxis are not well known. To measure the <span class="hlt">rate</span> and risk factors for <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> anaphylaxis in a population-based cohort in Olmsted County, Minnesota. We conducted a population-based cohort study using the Rochester Epidemiology Project, a comprehensive medical records linkage system, to obtain records of patients who presented to medical centers within the Olmsted County area with anaphylaxis from January 1, 2001, through December 31, 2010. We evaluated the <span class="hlt">rate</span> and associations of risk factors with anaphylaxis <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. Among the 611 patients with anaphylaxis, 50 (8%) experienced a total of 60 <span class="hlt">recurrences</span> within the 10-year period, resulting in a <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> of 2.6 per 100 person-years. A history of atopic dermatitis (hazard ratio [HR], 5.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.0-16.1; P = .001), presenting symptoms of cough (HR, 4.7; 95% CI, 2.1-10.7; P < .001) oral pruritus (HR, 9.9; 95% CI, 4.3-23.2; P < .001), and receiving corticosteroids (HR, 5.2; 95% CI, 2.3-11.7; P < .001) were associated with an increased risk of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. The cardiovascular symptom of chest pain (HR, 0.24; 95% CI, 0.07-0.79; P = .02) was associated with a decreased risk of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. In this epidemiologic study, the <span class="hlt">rate</span> of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> was 8% during the 10-year study period (<span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> of 2.6 per 100 person-years). Those with atopic dermatitis and mucocutaneous or respiratory symptoms were more likely to have a <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> anaphylactic event. Our findings underscore the importance of early patient access to self-injectable epinephrine and referral to an allergist/immunologist for additional testing and education. Copyright © 2016 American College of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12058296','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12058296"><span>[Does intraoperative nerve monitoring reduce the <span class="hlt">rate</span> of <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> nerve palsies during thyroid surgery?].</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Timmermann, W; Dralle, H; Hamelmann, W; Thomusch, O; Sekulla, C; Meyer, Th; Timm, S; Thiede, A</p> <p>2002-05-01</p> <p>Two different aspects of the influence of neuromonitoring on the possible reduction of post-operative <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> laryngeal nerve palsies require critical examination: the nerve identification and the monitoring of it's functions. Due to the additional information from the EMG signals, neuromonitoring is the best method for identifying the nerves as compared to visual identification alone. There are still no randomized studies available that compare the visual and electrophysiological <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> laryngeal nerve detection in thyroid operations with respect to the postoperative nerve palsies. Nevertheless, comparisons with historical collectives show that a constant low nerve-palsy-<span class="hlt">rate</span> was achieved with electrophysiological detection in comparison to visual detection. The <span class="hlt">rate</span> of nerve identification is normally very high and amounts to 99 % in our own patients. The data obtained during the "Quality assurance of benign and malignant Goiter" study show that in hemithyreoidectomy and subtotal resection, lower nerve-palsy-<span class="hlt">rates</span> are achieved with neuromonitoring as compared to solely visual detection. Following subtotal resection, this discrepancy becomes even statistically significant. While monitoring the nerve functions with the presently used neuromonitoring technique, it is possible to observe the EMG-signal remaining constant or decreasing in volume. Assuming that a constant neuromonitoring signal represents a normal vocal cord, our evaluation shows that there is a small percentage of false negative and positive results. Looking at the permanent <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> nerve palsy <span class="hlt">rates</span>, this method has a specificity of 98 %, a sensitivity of 100 %, a positive prognostic value of 10 %, and a negative prognostic value of 100 %. Although an altered neuromonitoring signal can be taken as a clear indication of eventual nerve damage, an absolutely reliable statement about the postoperative vocal cord function is presently not possible with intraoperative neuromonitoring.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26453404','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26453404"><span>Firing <span class="hlt">rate</span> dynamics in <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> spiking neural networks with intrinsic and network heterogeneity.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ly, Cheng</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Heterogeneity of neural attributes has recently gained a lot of attention and is increasing recognized as a crucial feature in neural processing. Despite its importance, this physiological feature has traditionally been neglected in theoretical studies of cortical neural networks. Thus, there is still a lot unknown about the consequences of cellular and circuit heterogeneity in spiking neural networks. In particular, combining network or synaptic heterogeneity and intrinsic heterogeneity has yet to be considered systematically despite the fact that both are known to exist and likely have significant roles in neural network dynamics. In a canonical <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> spiking neural network model, we study how these two forms of heterogeneity lead to different distributions of excitatory firing <span class="hlt">rates</span>. To analytically characterize how these types of heterogeneities affect the network, we employ a dimension reduction method that relies on a combination of Monte Carlo simulations and probability density function equations. We find that the relationship between intrinsic and network heterogeneity has a strong effect on the overall level of heterogeneity of the firing <span class="hlt">rates</span>. Specifically, this relationship can lead to amplification or attenuation of firing <span class="hlt">rate</span> heterogeneity, and these effects depend on whether the <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> network is firing asynchronously or rhythmically firing. These observations are captured with the aforementioned reduction method, and furthermore simpler analytic descriptions based on this dimension reduction method are developed. The final analytic descriptions provide compact and descriptive formulas for how the relationship between intrinsic and network heterogeneity determines the firing <span class="hlt">rate</span> heterogeneity dynamics in various settings.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JGRB..123..583B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JGRB..123..583B"><span>Constraints on Friction, Dilatancy, Diffusivity, and Effective Stress From Low-Frequency <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Rates</span> on the Deep San Andreas Fault</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Beeler, N. M.; Thomas, Amanda; Bürgmann, Roland; Shelly, David</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>Families of recurring low-frequency <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (LFEs) within nonvolcanic tremor on the San Andreas Fault in central California are sensitive to tidal stresses. LFEs occur at all levels of the tides, are strongly correlated and in phase with the 200 Pa shear stresses, and weakly and not systematically correlated with the 2 kPa tidal normal stresses. We assume that LFEs are small sources that repeatedly fail during shear within a much larger scale, aseismically slipping fault zone and consider two different models of the fault slip: (1) modulation of the fault slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> by the tidal stresses or (2) episodic slip, triggered by the tides. LFEs are strongly clustered with duration much shorter than the semidiurnal tide; they cannot be significantly modulated on that time scale. The <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> times of clusters, however, are many times longer than the semidiurnal, leading to an appearance of tidal triggering. In this context we examine the predictions of laboratory-observed triggered frictional (dilatant) fault slip. The undrained end-member model produces no sensitivity to the tidal normal stress, and slip onsets are in phase with the tidal shear stress. The tidal correlation constrains the diffusivity to be less than 1 × 10-6/s and the product of the friction and dilatancy coefficients to be at most 5 × 10-7, orders of magnitude smaller than observed at room temperature. In the absence of dilatancy the effective normal stress at failure would be about 55 kPa. For this model the observations require intrinsic weakness, low dilatancy, and lithostatic pore fluid.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002PhyD..171..249B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002PhyD..171..249B"><span>Assessing nonlinear structures in real exchange <span class="hlt">rates</span> using <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> plot strategies</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Belaire-Franch, Jorge; Contreras, Dulce; Tordera-Lledó, Lorena</p> <p>2002-11-01</p> <p>Purchasing power parity (PPP) is an important theory at the basis of a large number of economic models. However, the implication derived from the theory that real exchange <span class="hlt">rates</span> must follow stationary processes is not conclusively supported by empirical studies. In a recent paper, Serletis and Gogas [Appl. Finance Econ. 10 (2000) 615] show evidence of deterministic chaos in several OECD exchange <span class="hlt">rates</span>. As a consequence, PPP rejections could be spurious. In this work, we follow a two-stage testing procedure to test for nonlinearities and chaos in real exchange <span class="hlt">rates</span>, using a new set of techniques designed by Webber and Zbilut [J. Appl. Physiol. 76 (1994) 965], called <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> quantification analysis (RQA). Our conclusions differ slightly from Serletis and Gogas [Appl. Finance Econ. 10 (2000) 615], but they are also supportive of chaos for some exchange <span class="hlt">rates</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26220351','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26220351"><span>The Impact of Health Education Counseling on <span class="hlt">Rate</span> of <span class="hlt">Recurrent</span> Sexually Transmitted Infections in Adolescents.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>In-Iw, Supinya; Braverman, Paula K; Bates, Justin R; Biro, Frank M</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>To evaluate the effectiveness of a sexually transmitted infection (STI) intervention by a health educator that included partner notification, condom use, and retesting within 3 months. Retrospective chart review was conducted, and data were collected from 274 sexually active adolescent girls, aged 15 to 19 years, who were diagnosed with gonorrhea (GC), Chlamydia (CT), and Trichomonas (TV) infection, during a 9-month span in an urban hospital-based adolescent medicine clinic. Data regarding <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> STIs (GC, CT, and TV) were collected for 12 months following the incident infection. There were 161 in the intervention group (health educator counseling), and 113 controls who received usual care. Differences between groups were analyzed using χ(2) and survival analyses. There were no significant differences in age, gender, or race between the intervention and control groups at baseline. The majority in both groups were diagnosed initially with CT infection (57% CT, 16% GC, and 5% TV in the intervention group; 46% CT, 21% GC, and 12% TV in the control group). There was a significantly lower <span class="hlt">rate</span> of STI in the intervention group for those retested within 12 months of the initial diagnosis (P = .002). The median (SD) time to <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> in the intervention group was greater: 134 (14.7) days versus 116 (12.1) days (P = .034). Health education counseling, initial diagnosis with TV, and duration of time from initial diagnosis to retest (interval to retest) were significant protective factors for <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> STI. Health education counseling in an urban adolescent clinic is effective in reducing <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> infection at 12-month follow-up and can serve as an important component in reducing STI recidivism. Copyright © 2015 North American Society for Pediatric and Adolescent Gynecology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29788491','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29788491"><span>Lowering the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> in pigmented villonodular synovitis: A series of 120 resections.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Capellen, Carl Ferdinand; Tiling, Reinhold; Klein, Alexander; Baur-Melnyk, Andrea; Knösel, Thomas; Birkenmaier, Christof; Roeder, Falk; Jansson, Volkmar; Dürr, Hans Roland</p> <p>2018-05-16</p> <p>Tenosynovial giant-cell tumour or pigmented villonodular synovitis is an aggressive synovial proliferative disease, with the knee joint being the most commonly affected joint. The mainstay of therapy is surgical resection. The aim of this study was to evaluate the main patient characteristics, treatment and outcomes in a large single-centre retrospective study, focusing on meticulous aggressive open surgical procedures. From 1996 through 2014, 122 surgical interventions were performed in 105 patients. All patients underwent open synovectomy and when the knee joint was affected, combined anterior and posterior synovectomy. Radiotherapy was applied in 2 patients, radiosynoviorthesis in 27 patients. In histopathology, the diffuse type was seen in 66 (54%) lesions. Two patients were lost during follow-up. At a median follow-up time of 71 months (range: 13-238), 22 (18%) lesions recurred within a median of 18 months, >90% in the first 3 years. Out of those 22 <span class="hlt">recurrences</span>, 9 (11%) were seen in primary disease and 13 (34%) were a second <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. After renewed resection, 6 (5%) out of the 120 resections had persistent tumour at the end of follow-up. Based on the number of patients with complete follow-up (n = 103), this represents 5.8%. In diffuse-type pigmented villonodular synovitis, total synovectomy might be difficult to achieve. As shown in our results and also in the literature, meticulous open resection, especially in difficult to approach areas such as the popliteal space, reduces local <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span>. External beam radiation is an option in prevention of otherwise non-operable local <span class="hlt">recurrences</span> or in non-operable disease.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22938804','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22938804"><span>Correction of contracture and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> of Dupuytren contracture following invasive treatment: the importance of clear definitions.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Werker, Paul M N; Pess, Gary M; van Rijssen, Annet L; Denkler, Keith</p> <p>2012-10-01</p> <p>To call attention to the wide variety of definitions for <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> that have been employed in studies of different invasive procedures for the treatment of Dupuytren contracture and how this important limitation has contributed to the wide range of reported results. This study reviewed definitions and <span class="hlt">rates</span> of contracture correction and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> in patients undergoing invasive treatment of Dupuytren contracture. A literature search was carried out in January 2011 using the terms "Dupuytren" AND ("fasciectomy" OR "fasciotomy" OR "dermofasciectomy" OR "aponeurotomy" OR "aponeurectomy") and limited to studies in English. The search returned 218 studies, of which 21 had definitions, quantitative results for contracture correction and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>, and a sample size of at least 20 patients. Definitions for correction of contracture and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> varied greatly among articles and were almost always qualitative. Percentages of patients who achieved correction of contracture (ie, responder <span class="hlt">rate</span>) when evaluated at various times after completion of surgery ranged from 15% to 96% for fasciectomy/aponeurectomy. Responder <span class="hlt">rates</span> were not reported for fasciotomy/aponeurotomy. <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> ranged from 12% to 73% for patients treated with fasciectomy/aponeurectomy and from 33% to 100% for fasciotomy/aponeurotomy. Review of these reports underscored the difficulty involved in comparing correction of contracture and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> for different surgical interventions because of differences in definition and duration of follow-up. Clearly defined objective definitions for correction of contracture and for <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> are needed for more meaningful comparisons of results achieved with different surgical interventions. <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> after surgical intervention for Dupuytren contracture is common. This study, which evaluated reported <span class="hlt">rates</span> of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> following surgical treatment of Dupuytren contracture, provides clinicians with practical information regarding expected long</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GeoRL..45.2963N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GeoRL..45.2963N"><span>Hydromechanical <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Nucleation Model Forecasts Onset, Peak, and Falling <span class="hlt">Rates</span> of Induced Seismicity in Oklahoma and Kansas</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Norbeck, J. H.; Rubinstein, J. L.</p> <p>2018-04-01</p> <p>The <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> activity in Oklahoma and Kansas that began in 2008 reflects the most widespread instance of induced seismicity observed to date. We develop a reservoir model to calculate the hydrologic conditions associated with the activity of 902 saltwater disposal wells injecting into the Arbuckle aquifer. Estimates of basement fault stressing conditions inform a <span class="hlt">rate</span>-and-state friction <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> nucleation model to forecast the seismic response to injection. Our model replicates many salient features of the induced <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequence, including the onset of seismicity, the timing of the peak seismicity <span class="hlt">rate</span>, and the reduction in seismicity following decreased disposal activity. We present evidence for variable time lags between changes in injection and seismicity <span class="hlt">rates</span>, consistent with the prediction from <span class="hlt">rate</span>-and-state theory that seismicity <span class="hlt">rate</span> transients occur over timescales inversely proportional to stressing <span class="hlt">rate</span>. Given the efficacy of the hydromechanical model, as confirmed through a likelihood statistical test, the results of this study support broader integration of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> physics within seismic hazard analysis.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017E%26PSL.464...35C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017E%26PSL.464...35C"><span>Seismicity <span class="hlt">rate</span> increases associated with slow slip episodes prior to the 2012 Mw 7.4 Ometepec <span class="hlt">earthquake</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Colella, Harmony V.; Sit, Stefany M.; Brudzinski, Michael R.; Graham, Shannon E.; DeMets, Charles; Holtkamp, Stephen G.; Skoumal, Robert J.; Ghouse, Noorulann; Cabral-Cano, Enrique; Kostoglodov, Vladimir; Arciniega-Ceballos, Alejandra</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>The March 20, 2012 Mw 7.4 Ometepec <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in the Oaxaca region of Southern Mexico provides a unique opportunity to examine whether subtle changes in seismicity, tectonic tremor, or slow slip can be observed prior to a large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> that may illuminate changes in stress or background slip <span class="hlt">rate</span>. Continuous Global Positioning System (cGPS) data reveal a 5-month-long slow slip event (SSE) between ∼20 and 35 km depth that migrated toward and reached the vicinity of the mainshock a few weeks prior to the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Seismicity in Oaxaca is examined using single station tectonic tremor detection and multi-station waveform template matching of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> families. An increase in seismic activity, detected with template matching using aftershock waveforms, is only observed in the weeks prior to the mainshock in the region between the SSE and mainshock. In contrast, a SSE ∼15 months earlier occurred at ∼25-40 km depth and was primarily associated with an increase in tectonic tremor. Together, these observations indicate that in the Oaxaca region of Mexico shallower slow slip promotes elevated seismicity <span class="hlt">rates</span>, and deeper slow slip promotes tectonic tremor. Results from this study add to a growing number of published accounts that indicate slow slip may be a common pre-<span class="hlt">earthquake</span> signature.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12241313','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12241313"><span><span class="hlt">Recurrence</span>-plot-based measures of complexity and their application to heart-<span class="hlt">rate</span>-variability data.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Marwan, Norbert; Wessel, Niels; Meyerfeldt, Udo; Schirdewan, Alexander; Kurths, Jürgen</p> <p>2002-08-01</p> <p>The knowledge of transitions between regular, laminar or chaotic behaviors is essential to understand the underlying mechanisms behind complex systems. While several linear approaches are often insufficient to describe such processes, there are several nonlinear methods that, however, require rather long time observations. To overcome these difficulties, we propose measures of complexity based on vertical structures in <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> plots and apply them to the logistic map as well as to heart-<span class="hlt">rate</span>-variability data. For the logistic map these measures enable us not only to detect transitions between chaotic and periodic states, but also to identify laminar states, i.e., chaos-chaos transitions. The traditional <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> quantification analysis fails to detect the latter transitions. Applying our measures to the heart-<span class="hlt">rate</span>-variability data, we are able to detect and quantify the laminar phases before a life-threatening cardiac arrhythmia occurs thereby facilitating a prediction of such an event. Our findings could be of importance for the therapy of malignant cardiac arrhythmias.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25654196','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25654196"><span><span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> and patient satisfaction of CO2 laser evaporation of lesions in patients with hidradenitis suppurativa: a retrospective study.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Mikkelsen, Peter Riis; Dufour, Deirde Nathalie; Zarchi, Kian; Jemec, Gregor B E</p> <p>2015-02-01</p> <p>Hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) is a debilitating disease and is difficult to treat. Validation of surgical techniques is therefore of great importance in the management of HS. Carbon dioxide (CO2) laser evaporation has been shown effective, but larger-scale studies are scarce. To determine the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span>, time to <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>, and factors influencing disease <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> in skin treated with CO2 laser evaporation, and healing by secondary intention; and patients' satisfaction with treatment. Fifty-eight patients treated with CO2 laser evaporation were interviewed regarding <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> and satisfaction after a mean of 25.7 months. Seventeen of 58 (29%) reported <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of HS lesions within the borders of the treated areas after a mean of 12.7 months. Obesity was a risk factor for <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> with a hazard ratio of 4.53. Fifty-five patients (95%) reported some or great improvement, and 91% would recommend the CO2 laser surgery to other HS patients. This study supports the claim that CO2 laser treatment is an effective modality for <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> HS lesions in a majority of patients. The authors identified obesity as a risk factor for <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. Self-reported satisfaction is high, and only 3 of 58 report no change in the condition. None reported a worsening.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PApGe.174.2279W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PApGe.174.2279W"><span>Spatial Evaluation and Verification of <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Simulators</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wilson, John Max; Yoder, Mark R.; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Schultz, Kasey W.</p> <p>2017-06-01</p> <p>In this paper, we address the problem of verifying <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> simulators with observed data. <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> simulators are a class of computational simulations which attempt to mirror the topological complexity of fault systems on which <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> occur. In addition, the physics of friction and elastic interactions between fault elements are included in these simulations. Simulation parameters are adjusted so that natural <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequences are matched in their scaling properties. Physically based <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> simulators can generate many thousands of years of simulated seismicity, allowing for a robust capture of the statistical properties of large, damaging <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> that have long <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> time scales. Verification of simulations against current observed <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> seismicity is necessary, and following past simulator and forecast model verification methods, we approach the challenges in spatial forecast verification to simulators; namely, that simulator outputs are confined to the modeled faults, while observed <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> epicenters often occur off of known faults. We present two methods for addressing this discrepancy: a simplistic approach whereby observed <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are shifted to the nearest fault element and a smoothing method based on the power laws of the epidemic-type aftershock (ETAS) model, which distributes the seismicity of each simulated <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> over the entire test region at a decaying <span class="hlt">rate</span> with epicentral distance. To test these methods, a receiver operating characteristic plot was produced by comparing the <span class="hlt">rate</span> maps to observed m>6.0 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in California since 1980. We found that the nearest-neighbor mapping produced poor forecasts, while the ETAS power-law method produced <span class="hlt">rate</span> maps that agreed reasonably well with observations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMGP41A1095F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMGP41A1095F"><span>Magnetically Derived Flood <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">Rate</span> Estimates from Stalagmites in Southeastern Minnesota</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Feinberg, J. M.; Lascu, I.; Andrade Lima, E.; Weiss, B. P.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>The magnetism of speleothems remains an untapped resource of paleoclimatic, hydrogeologic, and geomagnetic information. Similar to other deposits containing magnetic minerals, speleothems chronicle the evolution of local environmental parameters via the concentration, composition and grain size of their magnetic mineral assemblages. Here we report a novel use of scanning SQUID microscopy to calculate flood <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> from an annually laminated ~500 year old stalagmite from Spring Valley Caverns (SVC) in southeastern Minnesota. Mineral and organic detritus adheres to the surface of a speleothem as flood waters recede from a cavern, and are subsequently encapsulated by calcite as drip water conditions are reestablished. Such detritus typically consists of allochthonous grains of quartz, clay, and titanomagnetite with an average grain size of ~10 μm. Larger flood layers occur on polished surfaces as dark bands that delineate stalagmite growth horizons. We use scanning SQUID microscopy (with a nominal sensitivity of 10-16 Am2) to map the presence of these flood layers by measuring the vertical component of the stray magnetic field resulting from a 1 T isothermal remanent magnetization (IRM) imparted perpendicular to a polished surface. A magnetization model of the IRM field was then obtained by inverting the field data measured 210 μm above the sample using an algorithm in the Fourier domain. By integrating the magnetic data parallel to the stalagmite growth axis we produce a time series of IRM peaks, each of which corresponds to a flooding event. We calculate an average flood <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> of 5 per century for the last 500 years. This <span class="hlt">rate</span> increases to >10 floods per century in the last century, thereby capturing the combined effects of both climate change and agricultural land-use on karst hydrogeology. These results agree with <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> estimates derived from historical records, tree ring studies, and geochemical analyses of speleothems. The presence</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.S53F..05L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.S53F..05L"><span>Imbricated slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> processes during slow slip transients imaged by low-frequency <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lengliné, O.; Frank, W.; Marsan, D.; Ampuero, J. P.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Low Frequency <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> (LFEs) often occur in conjunction with transient strain episodes, or Slow Slip Events (SSEs), in subduction zones. Their focal mechanism and location consistent with shear failure on the plate interface argue for a model where LFEs are discrete dynamic ruptures in an otherwise slowly slipping interface. SSEs are mostly observed by surface geodetic instruments with limited resolution and it is likely that only the largest ones are detected. The time synchronization of LFEs and SSEs suggests that we could use the recorded LFEs to constrain the evolution of SSEs, and notably of the geodetically-undetected small ones. However, inferring slow slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> from the temporal evolution of LFE activity is complicated by the strong temporal clustering of LFEs. Here we apply dedicated statistical tools to retrieve the temporal evolution of SSE slip <span class="hlt">rates</span> from the time history of LFE occurrences in two subduction zones, Mexico and Cascadia, and in the deep portion of the San Andreas fault at Parkfield. We find temporal characteristics of LFEs that are similar across these three different regions. The longer term episodic slip transients present in these datasets show a slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> decay with time after the passage of the SSE front possibly as t-1/4. They are composed of multiple short term transients with steeper slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> decay as t-α with α between 1.4 and 2. We also find that the maximum slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> of SSEs has a continuous distribution. Our results indicate that creeping faults host intermittent deformation at various scales resulting from the imbricated occurrence of numerous slow slip events of various amplitudes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017E%26PSL.476..122L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017E%26PSL.476..122L"><span>Imbricated slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> processes during slow slip transients imaged by low-frequency <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lengliné, O.; Frank, W. B.; Marsan, D.; Ampuero, J.-P.</p> <p>2017-10-01</p> <p>Low Frequency <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> (LFEs) often occur in conjunction with transient strain episodes, or Slow Slip Events (SSEs), in subduction zones. Their focal mechanism and location consistent with shear failure on the plate interface argue for a model where LFEs are discrete dynamic ruptures in an otherwise slowly slipping interface. SSEs are mostly observed by surface geodetic instruments with limited resolution and it is likely that only the largest ones are detected. The time synchronization of LFEs and SSEs suggests that we could use the recorded LFEs to constrain the evolution of SSEs, and notably of the geodetically-undetected small ones. However, inferring slow slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> from the temporal evolution of LFE activity is complicated by the strong temporal clustering of LFEs. Here we apply dedicated statistical tools to retrieve the temporal evolution of SSE slip <span class="hlt">rates</span> from the time history of LFE occurrences in two subduction zones, Mexico and Cascadia, and in the deep portion of the San Andreas fault at Parkfield. We find temporal characteristics of LFEs that are similar across these three different regions. The longer term episodic slip transients present in these datasets show a slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> decay with time after the passage of the SSE front possibly as t - 1 / 4. They are composed of multiple short term transients with steeper slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> decay as t-α with α between 1.4 and 2. We also find that the maximum slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> of SSEs has a continuous distribution. Our results indicate that creeping faults host intermittent deformation at various scales resulting from the imbricated occurrence of numerous slow slip events of various amplitudes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26160825','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26160825"><span>Estimating the ratio of multivariate <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> event <span class="hlt">rates</span> with application to a blood transfusion study.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ning, Jing; Rahbar, Mohammad H; Choi, Sangbum; Piao, Jin; Hong, Chuan; Del Junco, Deborah J; Rahbar, Elaheh; Fox, Erin E; Holcomb, John B; Wang, Mei-Cheng</p> <p>2017-08-01</p> <p>In comparative effectiveness studies of multicomponent, sequential interventions like blood product transfusion (plasma, platelets, red blood cells) for trauma and critical care patients, the timing and dynamics of treatment relative to the fragility of a patient's condition is often overlooked and underappreciated. While many hospitals have established massive transfusion protocols to ensure that physiologically optimal combinations of blood products are rapidly available, the period of time required to achieve a specified massive transfusion standard (e.g. a 1:1 or 1:2 ratio of plasma or platelets:red blood cells) has been ignored. To account for the time-varying characteristics of transfusions, we use semiparametric <span class="hlt">rate</span> models for multivariate <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> events to estimate blood product ratios. We use latent variables to account for multiple sources of informative censoring (early surgical or endovascular hemorrhage control procedures or death). The major advantage is that the distributions of latent variables and the dependence structure between the multivariate <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> events and informative censoring need not be specified. Thus, our approach is robust to complex model assumptions. We establish asymptotic properties and evaluate finite sample performance through simulations, and apply the method to data from the PRospective Observational Multicenter Major Trauma Transfusion study.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70033472','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70033472"><span>Postearthquake relaxation after the 2004 M6 Parkfield, California, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and <span class="hlt">rate</span>-and-state friction</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Savage, J.C.; Langbein, J.</p> <p>2008-01-01</p> <p>An unusually complete set of measurements (including rapid <span class="hlt">rate</span> GPS over the first 10 days) of postseismic deformation is available at 12 continuous GPS stations located close to the epicenter of the 2004 M6.0 Parkfield <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The principal component modes for the relaxation of the ensemble of those 12 GPS stations were determined. The first mode alone furnishes an adequate approximation to the data. Thus, the relaxation at all stations can be represented by the product of a common temporal function and distinct amplitudes for each component (north or east) of relaxation at each station. The distribution in space of the amplitudes indicates that the relaxation is dominantly strike slip. The temporal function, which spans times from about 5 min to 900 days postearthquake, can be fit by a superposition of three creep terms, each of the form ??l loge(1 + t/??l), with characteristic times ??, = 4.06, 0.11, and 0.0001 days. It seems likely that what is actually involved is a broad spectrum of characteristic times, the individual components of which arise from afterslip on different fault patches. Perfettini and Avouac (2004) have shown that an individual creep term can be explained by the spring-slider model with <span class="hlt">rate</span>-dependent (no state variable) friction. The observed temporal function can also be explained using a single spring-slider model (i.e., single fault patch) that includes <span class="hlt">rate</span>-and-state-dependent friction, a single-state variable, and either of the two commonly used (aging and slip) state evolution laws. In the latter fits, the <span class="hlt">rate</span>-and-state friction parameter b is negative.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006JGRB..111.3409M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006JGRB..111.3409M"><span>Spatial and temporal evolution of stress and slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> during the 2000 Tokai slow <span class="hlt">earthquake</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Miyazaki, Shin'ichi; Segall, Paul; McGuire, Jeffery J.; Kato, Teruyuki; Hatanaka, Yuki</p> <p>2006-03-01</p> <p>We investigate an ongoing silent thrust event in the Tokai seismic gap along the Suruga-Nankai Trough, central Japan. Prior to the event, continuous GPS data from April 1996 to the end of 1999 show that this region displaced ˜2 cm/yr to the northwest relative to the landward plate. The GPS time series show an abrupt change in <span class="hlt">rate</span> in mid-June 2000 that continues as of mid-2005. We model this transient deformation, which we refer to as the Tokai slow thrust slip event, as caused by slip on the interface between the Philippine Sea and Amurian plates. The spatial and temporal distribution of slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> is estimated with Kalman filter based inversion methods. Our inversions reveal two slow subevents. The first initiated in late June 2000 slightly before the Miyake-jima eruption. The locus of slip then propagated southeast in the second half of 2000, with maximum slip <span class="hlt">rates</span> of about 15 cm/yr through 2001. A second locus of slip initiated to the northeast in early 2001. The depth of the slip zone is about 25 km, which may correspond to the transition zone from a seismogenic to a freely sliding zone. The cumulative moment magnitude of the slow slip event up to November 2002 is Mw ˜ 6.8. We calculate shear stress changes on the plate interface from the slip histories. Stress change as a function of slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> shows trajectories similar to that inferred for high-speed ruptures; however, the maximum velocity is 8 orders of magnitude less than in normal <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.T31G..03F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.T31G..03F"><span><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span>-driven fluid flow <span class="hlt">rates</span> inferred from borehole temperature measurements within the Japan Trench plate boundary fault zone</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Fulton, P. M.; Brodsky, E. E.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Using borehole sub-seafloor temperature measurements, we have recently identified signatures suggestive of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-driven fluid pulses within the Japan Trench plate boundary fault zone during a major aftershock sequence. Here we use numerical models to show that these signatures are consistent with time-varying fluid flow <span class="hlt">rates</span> out of permeable zones within the formation into the borehole annulus. In addition, we also identify an apparent time-varying sensitivity of whether suspected fluid pulses occur in response to <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> of a given magnitude and distance. The results suggest a damage and healing process and therefore provides a mechanism to allow for a disproportionate amount of heat and chemical transport in the short time frame after an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Our observations come from an observatory installed across the main plate boundary fault as part of IODP's Japan Trench Fast Drilling Project (JFAST) following the March 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-oki <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. It operated from July 2012 - April 2013 during which a Mw 7.3 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and numerous aftershocks occurred. High-resolution temperature time series data reveal spatially correlated transients in response to <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> with distinct patterns interpreted to reflect advection by transient pulses of fluid flow from permeable zones into the borehole annulus. Typical transients involve perturbations over 12 m with increases of 10 mK that build over 0.1 days at shallower depths and decreases at deeper depths. They are consistently centered around 792.5 m below seafloor (mbsf) where a secondary fault and permeable zone have been independently identified within the damage zone above the main plate boundary fault at 820 mbsf . Model simulations suggest transient flow <span class="hlt">rates</span> of up to 10-3m/s from the formation that quickly decrease. Comparison of characteristics of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> identified in nearby ocean bottom pressure measurements suggest there is not a clear relationship between fluid pulses and static strain. There</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li class="active"><span>10</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_10 --> <div id="page_11" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li class="active"><span>11</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="201"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23070583','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23070583"><span>Importance of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rating</span>, morphology, hernial gap size, and risk factors in ventral and incisional hernia classification.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Dietz, U A; Winkler, M S; Härtel, R W; Fleischhacker, A; Wiegering, A; Isbert, C; Jurowich, Ch; Heuschmann, P; Germer, C-T</p> <p>2014-02-01</p> <p>There is limited evidence on the natural course of ventral and incisional hernias and the results of hernia repair, what might partially be explained by the lack of an accepted classification system. The aim of the present study is to investigate the association of the criteria included in the Wuerzburg classification system of ventral and incisional hernias with postoperative complications and long-term <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. In a retrospective cohort study, the data on 330 consecutive patients who underwent surgery to repair ventral and incisional hernias were analyzed. The following four classification criteria were applied: (a) <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rating</span> (ventral, incisional or incisional <span class="hlt">recurrent</span>); (b) morphology (location); (c) size of the hernial gap; and (d) risk factors. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of a <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> during follow-up. Secondary endpoints were incidence of postoperative complications. Independent association between classification criteria, type of surgical procedures and postoperative complications was calculated by multivariate logistic regression analysis and between classification criteria, type of surgical procedures and risk of long-term <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> by Cox regression analysis. Follow-up lasted a mean 47.7 ± 23.53 months (median 45 months) or 3.9 ± 1.96 years. The criterion "<span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rating</span>" was found as predictive factor for postoperative complications in the multivariate analysis (OR 2.04; 95 % CI 1.09-3.84; incisional vs. ventral hernia). The criterion "morphology" had influence neither on the incidence of the critical event "<span class="hlt">recurrence</span> during follow-up" nor on the incidence of postoperative complications. Hernial gap "width" predicted postoperative complications in the multivariate analysis (OR 1.98; 95 % CI 1.19-3.29; ≤5 vs. >5 cm). Length of the hernial gap was found to be an independent prognostic factor for the critical event "<span class="hlt">recurrence</span> during follow-up" (HR 2.05; 95 % CI 1.25-3.37; ≤5 vs. >5 cm). The presence of 3 or more risk</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70189777','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70189777"><span>Late Holocene slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> and ages of prehistoric <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> along the Maacama Fault near Willits, Mendocino County, northern California</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Prentice, Carol S.; Larsen, Martin C.; Kelsey, Harvey M.; Zachariasen, Judith</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>The Maacama fault is the northward continuation of the Hayward–Rodgers Creek fault system and creeps at a <span class="hlt">rate</span> of 5.7±0.1  mm/yr (averaged over the last 20 years) in Willits, California. Our paleoseismic studies at Haehl Creek suggest that the Maacama fault has produced infrequent large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in addition to creep. Fault terminations observed in several excavations provide evidence that a prehistoric surface‐rupturing <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurred between 1060 and 1180 calibrated years (cal) B.P. at the Haehl Creek site. A folding event, which we attribute to a more recent large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, occurred between 790 and 1060 cal B.P. In the last 560–690 years, a buried channel deposit has been offset 4.6±0.2  m, giving an average slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> of 6.4–8.6  mm/yr, which is higher than the creep <span class="hlt">rate</span> over the last 20 years. The difference between this slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> and the creep <span class="hlt">rate</span> suggests that coseismic slip up to 1.7 m could have occurred after the formation of the channel deposit and could be due to a paleoearthquake known from paleoseismic studies in the Ukiah Valley, about 25 km to the southeast. Therefore, we infer that at least two, and possibly three, large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> have occurred at the Haehl Creek site since 1180 cal B.P. (770 C.E.), consistent with earlier studies suggesting infrequent, large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on the Maacama fault. The short‐term geodetic slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> across the Maacama fault zone is approximately twice the slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> that we have documented at the Haehl Creek site, which is averaged over the last approximately 600 years. If the geodetic <span class="hlt">rate</span> represents the long‐term slip accumulation across the fault zone, then we infer that, in the last ∼1200 years, additional <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> may have occurred either on the Haehl Creek segment of the Maacama fault or on other active faults within the Maacama fault zone at this latitude.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8321771','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8321771"><span>Rectal cancer. Treatment advances that reduce <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> and lengthen survival.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Sexe, R; Miedema, B W</p> <p>1993-07-01</p> <p>The risk of malignant disease arising in rectal mucosa is high. Surgery is the most effective form of treatment but results in cure in only 50% of patients. Adjuvant preoperative radiation therapy reduces the likelihood of local <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> but does not improve survival <span class="hlt">rates</span>. Fluorouracil is the most effective agent for adjuvant chemotherapy and slightly improves survival when given after surgery. Combining radiation therapy with chemotherapy appears to have a synergistic effect, and recent studies show that providing this combination after surgery improves survival. Future trends in the treatment of rectal cancer are expected to include expanded use of local excision to preserve anal sphincter function, preoperative use of a combination of radiation therapy and chemotherapy, perioperative use of chemotherapy combined with immunostimulating therapy, and use of tumor antibodies for diagnostic and therapeutic purposes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMNH33A0239F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMNH33A0239F"><span>Very High-<span class="hlt">rate</span> (50 Hz) GPS for Detection of <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Ground Motions : How High Do We Need to Go?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Fang, R.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The GPS variometric approach can measure displacements using broadcast ephemeris and a single receiver, with comparable precision to relative positioning and PPP within a short period of time. We evaluate the performance of the variometric approach to measure displacements using very high-<span class="hlt">rate</span> (50 Hz) GPS data, which recorded from the 2013 Mw 6.6 Lushan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. To remove the nonlinear drift due to integration process, we present to apply a high-pass filter to reconstruct displacements using the variometric approach. Comparison between 50 Hz and 1 Hz coseismic displacements demonstrates that 1 Hz solutions often fail to faithfully manifest the seismic waves containing high-frequency (> 0.5 Hz) seismic signals, which is common for near-field stations during a moderate-magnitude <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Therefore, in order to reconstruct near-field seismic waves caused by moderate or large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, it is helpful to equip monitoring stations with very high-<span class="hlt">rate</span> GPS receivers. Results derived using the variometric approach are compared with PPP results. They display very good consistence within only a few millimeters both in static and seismic periods. High-frequency (above 10 Hz) noises of displacements derived using the variometric approach are smaller than PPP displacements in three components.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70014341','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70014341"><span>Retardations in fault creep <span class="hlt">rates</span> before local moderate <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> along the San Andreas fault system, central California</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Burford, R.O.</p> <p>1988-01-01</p> <p>Records of shallow aseismic slip (fault creep) obtained along parts of the San Andreas and Calaveras faults in central California demonstrate that significant changes in creep <span class="hlt">rates</span> often have been associated with local moderate <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. An immediate postearthquake increase followed by gradual, long-term decay back to a previous background <span class="hlt">rate</span> is generally the most obvious <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> effect on fault creep. This phenomenon, identified as aseismic afterslip, usually is characterized by above-average creep <span class="hlt">rates</span> for several months to a few years. In several cases, minor step-like movements, called coseismic slip events, have occurred at or near the times of mainshocks. One extreme case of coseismic slip, recorded at Cienega Winery on the San Andreas fault 17.5 km southeast of San Juan Bautista, consisted of 11 mm of sudden displacement coincident with <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> of ML=5.3 and ML=5.2 that occurred 2.5 minutes apart on 9 April 1961. At least one of these shocks originated on the main fault beneath the winery. Creep activity subsequently stopped at the winery for 19 months, then gradually returned to a nearly steady <span class="hlt">rate</span> slightly below the previous long-term average. The phenomena mentioned above can be explained in terms of simple models consisting of relatively weak material along shallow reaches of the fault responding to changes in load imposed by sudden slip within the underlying seismogenic zone. In addition to coseismic slip and afterslip phenomena, however, pre-<span class="hlt">earthquake</span> retardations in creep <span class="hlt">rates</span> also have been observed. Onsets of significant, persistent decreases in creep <span class="hlt">rates</span> have occurred at several sites 12 months or more before the times of moderate <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. A 44-month retardation before the 1979 ML=5.9 Coyote Lake <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> on the Calaveras fault was recorded at the Shore Road creepmeter site 10 km northwest of Hollister. Creep retardation on the San Andreas fault near San Juan Bautista has been evident in records from one creepmeter site for</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1988PApGe.126..499B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1988PApGe.126..499B"><span>Retardations in fault creep <span class="hlt">rates</span> before local moderate <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> along the San Andreas fault system, central California</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Burford, Robert O.</p> <p>1988-06-01</p> <p>Records of shallow aseismic slip (fault creep) obtained along parts of the San Andreas and Calaveras faults in central California demonstrate that significant changes in creep <span class="hlt">rates</span> often have been associated with local moderate <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. An immediate postearthquake increase followed by gradual, long-term decay back to a previous background <span class="hlt">rate</span> is generally the most obvious <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> effect on fault creep. This phenomenon, identified as aseismic afterslip, usually is characterized by above-average creep <span class="hlt">rates</span> for several months to a few years. In several cases, minor step-like movements, called coseismic slip events, have occurred at or near the times of mainshocks. One extreme case of coseismic slip, recorded at Cienega Winery on the San Andreas fault 17.5 km southeast of San Juan Bautista, consisted of 11 mm of sudden displacement coincident with <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> of M L =5.3 and M L =5.2 that occurred 2.5 minutes apart on 9 April 1961. At least one of these shocks originated on the main fault beneath the winery. Creep activity subsequently stopped at the winery for 19 months, then gradually returned to a nearly steady <span class="hlt">rate</span> slightly below the previous long-term average. The phenomena mentioned above can be explained in terms of simple models consisting of relatively weak material along shallow reaches of the fault responding to changes in load imposed by sudden slip within the underlying seismogenic zone. In addition to coseismic slip and afterslip phenomena, however, pre-<span class="hlt">earthquake</span> retardations in creep <span class="hlt">rates</span> also have been observed. Onsets of significant, persistent decreases in creep <span class="hlt">rates</span> have occurred at several sites 12 months or more before the times of moderate <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. A 44-month retardation before the 1979 M L =5.9 Coyote Lake <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> on the Calaveras fault was recorded at the Shore Road creepmeter site 10 km northwest of Hollister. Creep retardation on the San Andreas fault near San Juan Bautista has been evident in records from one creepmeter</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5449222','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5449222"><span>17-alpha Hydroxyprogesterone Caproate did not reduce the <span class="hlt">rate</span> of <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> preterm birth in a prospective cohort study</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Nelson, David B.; McIntire, Donald D.; McDonald, Jeffrey; Gard, John; Turrichi, Paula; Leveno, Kenneth J.</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Background 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate for prevention of <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> preterm birth is recommended for use in the United States. Objective To assess the clinical effectiveness of 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate to prevent <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> preterm birth ≤ 35 weeks compared to similar births in our obstetric population prior to the implementation of 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate. Study Design This was a prospective cohort study of 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate in our obstetric population. The primary outcome was the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of birth ≤ 35 weeks for the entire study cohort compared to a historical referent <span class="hlt">rate</span> of 16.8% of <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> preterm birth in our population. There were three secondary outcomes. First, did 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate modify a woman’s history of preterm birth when taking into account her prior number and sequence of preterm and term births? Second, was <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of preterm birth related to 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate plasma concentration? Third, was duration of pregnancy modified by 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate treatment compared to a prior preterm birth? Results Between January 2012 and March 2016, 430 consecutive women with prior births ≤ 35 weeks were treated with 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate. Nearly two-thirds of the women (N=267) began injections ≤ 18 weeks and 394 (92%) received a scheduled weekly injection within 10 days of reaching 35 weeks or delivery. The overall <span class="hlt">rate</span> of <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> preterm birth was 25% (N=106) for the entire cohort compared to the 16.8% expected <span class="hlt">rate</span> (P = 1.0). The three secondary outcomes were also negative. First, 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate did not significantly reduce the <span class="hlt">rates</span> of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> regardless of prior preterm birth number or sequence. Second, plasma concentrations of 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate were not different (P=0.17 at 24 weeks; P=0.38 at 32 weeks) between women delivered ≤ 35 weeks and those delivered later</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28479479','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28479479"><span>Direct Vision Internal Urethrotomy for Short Anterior Urethral Strictures and Beyond: Success <span class="hlt">Rates</span>, Predictors of Treatment Failure, and <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> Management.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kluth, Luis A; Ernst, Lukas; Vetterlein, Malte W; Meyer, Christian P; Reiss, C Philip; Fisch, Margit; Rosenbaum, Clemens M</p> <p>2017-08-01</p> <p>To determine success <span class="hlt">rates</span>, predictors of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>, and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> management of patients treated for short anterior urethral strictures by direct vision internal urethrotomy (DVIU). We identified 128 patients who underwent DVIU of the anterior urethra between December 2009 and March 2016. Follow-up was conducted by telephone interviews. Success <span class="hlt">rates</span> were assessed by Kaplan-Meier estimators. Predictors of stricture <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> and different further therapy strategies were identified by uni- and multivariable Cox regression analyses. The mean age was 63.8 years (standard deviation: 16.3) and the overall success <span class="hlt">rate</span> was 51.6% (N = 66) at a median follow-up of 16 months (interquartile range: 6-43). Median time to stricture <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> was six months (interquartile range: 2-12). In uni- and multivariable analyses, only repeat DVIU (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.13-3.11, P= .015; and HR=1.78, 95% CI = 1.05-3.03, P = .032, respectively) was a risk factor for <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. Of 62 patients with <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>, 35.5% underwent urethroplasty, 29% underwent further endoscopic treatment, and 33.9% did not undergo further interventional therapy. Age (HR = 1.05, 95% CI = 1.01-1.09, P = .019) and diabetes (HR = 2.90, 95% CI = 1.02-8.26, P = .047) were predictors of no further interventional therapy. DVIU seems justifiable in short urethral strictures as a primary treatment. Prior DVIU was a risk factor for <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. In case of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>, about one-third of the patients did not undergo any further therapy. Higher age and diabetes predicted the denial of any further treatment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20068358','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20068358"><span>Geographic variation in one-year <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> ischemic stroke <span class="hlt">rates</span> for elderly Medicare beneficiaries in the USA.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Allen, Norrina B; Holford, Theodore R; Bracken, Michael B; Goldstein, Larry B; Howard, George; Wang, Yun; Lichtman, Judith H</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>While geographic disparities in stroke mortality are well documented, there are no data describing geographic variation in <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> stroke. Accordingly, we evaluated geographic variations in 1-year <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> ischemic stroke <span class="hlt">rates</span> in the USA with adjustment for patient characteristics. One-year <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> stroke <span class="hlt">rates</span> for ischemic stroke (International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision codes 433, 434 and 436) following hospital discharge were calculated by county for all fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries from 2000 to 2002. The <span class="hlt">rates</span> were standardized and smoothed using a bayesian conditional autoregressive model that was risk-standardized for patients' age, gender, race/ethnicity, prior hospitalizations, Deyo comorbidity score, acute myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, diabetes, hypertension, dementia, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and obesity. The overall 1-year <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> stroke <span class="hlt">rate</span> was 9.4% among 895,916 ischemic stroke patients (mean age: 78 years; 56.6% women; 86.6% White, 9.7% Black and 1.2% Latino/Hispanic). The <span class="hlt">rates</span> varied by geographic region and were highest in the South and in parts of the West and Midwest. Regional variation was present for all racial/ethnic subgroups and persisted after adjustment for individual patient characteristics. Almost 1 in 10 hospitalized ischemic stroke patients was readmitted for an ischemic stroke within 1 year. There was heterogeneity in <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> patterns by geographic region. Further work is needed to understand the reasons for this regional variability. Copyright 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMMR42A..01B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMMR42A..01B"><span>Constraining friction, dilatancy and effective stress with <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> in the deep crust</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Beeler, N. M.; Thomas, A.; Burgmann, R.; Shelly, D. R.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Similar to their behavior on the deep extent of some subduction zones, families of recurring low-frequency <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (LFE) within zones of non-volcanic tremor on the San Andreas fault in central California show strong sensitivity to stresses induced by the tides. Taking all of the LFE families collectively, LFEs occur at all levels of the daily tidal stress, and are in phase with the very small, ~200 Pa, shear stress amplitudes while being uncorrelated with the ~2 kPa tidal normal stresses. Following previous work we assume LFE sources are small, persistent regions that repeatedly fail during shear within a much larger scale, otherwise aseismically creeping fault zone and that the correlation of LFE occurrence reflects modulation of the fault creep <span class="hlt">rate</span> by the tidal stresses. We examine the predictions of laboratory-observed <span class="hlt">rate</span>-dependent dilatancy associated with frictional slip. The effect of dilatancy hardening is to damp the slip <span class="hlt">rate</span>, so high dilatancy under undrained pore pressure reduces modulation of slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> by the tides. The undrained end-member model produces: 1) no sensitivity to the tidal normal stress, as first suggested in this context by Hawthorne and Rubin [2010], and 2) fault creep <span class="hlt">rate</span> in phase with the tidal shear stress. Room temperature laboratory-observed values of the dilatancy and friction coefficients for talc, an extremely weak and weakly dilatant material, under-predict the observed San Andreas modulation at least by an order of magnitude owing to too much dilatancy. This may reflect a temperature dependence of the dilatancy and friction coefficients, both of which are expected to be zero at the brittle-ductile transition. The observed tidal modulation constrains the product of the friction and dilatancy coefficients to be at most 5 x 10-7 in the LFE source region, an order of magnitude smaller than observed at room temperature for talc. Alternatively, considering the predictions of a purely <span class="hlt">rate</span>-dependent talc friction would</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3041273','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3041273"><span>TEN-YEAR <span class="hlt">RECURRENCE</span> <span class="hlt">RATES</span> IN YOUNG WOMEN WITH BREAST CANCER BY LOCOREGIONAL TREATMENT APPROACH</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Beadle, Beth M.; Woodward, Wendy A.; Tucker, Susan L.; Outlaw, Elesyia D.; Allen, Pamela K.; Oh, Julia L.; Strom, Eric A.; Perkins, George H.; Tereffe, Welela; Yu, Tse-Kuan; Meric-Bernstam, Funda; Litton, Jennifer K.; Buchholz, Thomas A.</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>Purpose Young women with breast cancer have higher locoregional <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> (LRR) <span class="hlt">rates</span> than older patients. The goal of this study is to determine the impact of locoregional treatment strategy, breast-conserving therapy (BCT), mastectomy alone (M), or mastectomy with adjuvant radiation (MXRT), on LRR for patients 35 years or younger. Methods and Materials Data for 668 breast cancers in 652 young patients with breast cancer were retrospectively reviewed; 197 patients were treated with BCT, 237 with M, and 234 with MXRT. Results Median follow-up for all living patients was 114 months. In the entire cohort, 10-year actuarial LRR <span class="hlt">rates</span> varied by locoregional treatment: 19.8% for BCT, 24.1% for M, and 15.1% for MXRT (p = 0.05). In patients with Stage II disease, 10-year actuarial LRR <span class="hlt">rates</span> by locoregional treatment strategy were 17.7% for BCT, 22.8% for M, and 5.7% for MXRT (p = 0.02). On multivariate analysis, M (hazard ratio, 4.45) and Grade III disease (hazard ratio, 2.24) predicted for increased LRR. In patients with Stage I disease, there was no difference in LRR <span class="hlt">rates</span> based on locoregional treatment (18.0% for BCT, 19.8% for M; p = 0.56), but chemotherapy use had a statistically significant LRR benefit (13.5% for chemotherapy, 27.9% for none; p = 0.04). Conclusions Young women have high <span class="hlt">rates</span> of LRR after breast cancer treatment. For patients with Stage II disease, the best locoregional control <span class="hlt">rates</span> were achieved with MXRT. For patients with Stage I disease, similar outcomes were achieved with BCT and mastectomy; however, chemotherapy provided a significant benefit to either approach. PMID:18707822</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010GeoJI.183.1525M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010GeoJI.183.1525M"><span><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> prediction analysis based on empirical seismic <span class="hlt">rate</span>: the M8 algorithm</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Molchan, G.; Romashkova, L.</p> <p>2010-12-01</p> <p>The quality of space-time <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> prediction is usually characterized by a 2-D error diagram (n, τ), where n is the fraction of failures-to-predict and τ is the local <span class="hlt">rate</span> of alarm averaged in space. The most reasonable averaging measure for analysis of a prediction strategy is the normalized <span class="hlt">rate</span> of target events λ(dg) in a subarea dg. In that case the quantity H = 1 - (n + τ) determines the prediction capability of the strategy. The uncertainty of λ(dg) causes difficulties in estimating H and the statistical significance, α, of prediction results. We investigate this problem theoretically and show how the uncertainty of the measure can be taken into account in two situations, viz., the estimation of α and the construction of a confidence zone for the (n, τ)-parameters of the random strategies. We use our approach to analyse the results from prediction of M >= 8.0 events by the M8 method for the period 1985-2009 (the M8.0+ test). The model of λ(dg) based on the events Mw >= 5.5, 1977-2004, and the magnitude range of target events 8.0 <= M < 8.5 are considered as basic to this M8 analysis. We find the point and upper estimates of α and show that they are still unstable because the number of target events in the experiment is small. However, our results argue in favour of non-triviality of the M8 prediction algorithm.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018EP%26S...70...92K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018EP%26S...70...92K"><span>Kinetic effect of heating <span class="hlt">rate</span> on the thermal maturity of carbonaceous material as an indicator of frictional heat during <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kaneki, Shunya; Hirono, Tetsuro</p> <p>2018-06-01</p> <p>Because the maximum temperature reached in the slip zone is significant information for understanding slip behaviors during an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, the maturity of carbonaceous material (CM) is widely used as a proxy for detecting frictional heat recorded by fault rocks. The degree of maturation of CM is controlled not only by maximum temperature but also by the heating <span class="hlt">rate</span>. Nevertheless, maximum slip zone temperature has been estimated previously by comparing the maturity of CM in natural fault rocks with that of synthetic products heated at <span class="hlt">rates</span> of about 1 °C s-1, even though this <span class="hlt">rate</span> is much lower than the actual heating <span class="hlt">rate</span> during an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. In this study, we investigated the kinetic effect of the heating <span class="hlt">rate</span> on the CM maturation process by performing organochemical analyses of CM heated at slow (1 °C s-1) and fast (100 °C s-1) <span class="hlt">rates</span>. The results clearly showed that a higher heating <span class="hlt">rate</span> can inhibit the maturation reactions of CM; for example, extinction of aliphatic hydrocarbon chains occurred at 600 °C at a heating <span class="hlt">rate</span> of 1 °C s-1 and at 900 °C at a heating <span class="hlt">rate</span> of 100 °C s-1. However, shear-enhanced mechanochemical effects can also promote CM maturation reactions and may offset the effect of a high heating <span class="hlt">rate</span>. We should thus consider simultaneously the effects of both heating <span class="hlt">rate</span> and mechanochemistry on CM maturation to establish CM as a more rigorous proxy for frictional heat recorded by fault rocks and for estimating slip behaviors during <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20722068','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20722068"><span><span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> of clostridium difficile infection in hospitalized pediatric patients with inflammatory bowel disease.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kelsen, Judith R; Kim, Jason; Latta, Dan; Smathers, Sarah; McGowan, Karin L; Zaoutis, Theodore; Mamula, Petar; Baldassano, Robert N</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>The incidence and associated morbidity of Clostridium difficile (CD) infection has been increasing at an alarming <span class="hlt">rate</span> in North America. Clostridium difficile-associated diarrhea (CDAD) is the leading cause of nosocomial diarrhea in the USA. Patients with CDAD have longer average hospital admissions and additional hospital costs. Evidence has demonstrated that patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have a higher incidence of CD in comparison to the general population. The aim of this study was to compare the <span class="hlt">rate</span> of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of CD in hospitalized pediatric patients with IBD compared to hospitalized controls. The secondary aim was to evaluate whether infection with CD resulted in a more severe disease course of IBD. This was a nested case control retrospective study of hospitalized pediatric patients. Diagnosis of CD was confirmed with stool Toxin A and B analysis. The following data were obtained from the medical records: demographic information, classification of IBD including location of disease, IBD therapy, and prior surgeries. In addition, prior hospital admissions within 1 year and antibiotic exposure were recorded. The same information was recorded following CD infection. Cases were patients with IBD and CD; two control populations were also studied: patients with CD but without IBD, and patients with IBD but without CD. For aim 1, a total of 111 eligible patients with IBD and CD infection and 77 eligible control patients with CD infection were included. The <span class="hlt">rate</span> of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of CD in the IBD population was 34% compared to 7.5% in the control population (P < 0.0001). In evaluating the effect of CD infection on IBD disease severity, we compared the 111 IBD patients with CD to a second control population of 127 IBD patients without CD. 57% of IBD-CD patients were readmitted with an exacerbation of disease within 6 months of infection with CD and 67% required escalation of therapy following CD infection, compared to 30% of IBD patients without CD (P</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27438419','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27438419"><span><span class="hlt">RECURRENCE</span> <span class="hlt">RATE</span> OF HELICOBACTER PYLORI IN PATIENTS WITH PEPTIC ULCER FIVE YEARS OR MORE AFTER SUCCESSFUL ERADICATION.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Fernandes, Yuri Costa Farago; Bonatto, Gabriel da Rocha; Bonatto, Mauro Willeman</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Infection with Helicobacter pylori is highly prevalent worldwide, especially in developing countries. Its presence in the gastroduodenal mucosa is related with development of peptic ulcer and other illnesses. The eradication of H. pylori improves mucosal histology in patients with peptic ulcers. This study was aimed to verify if H. pylori <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> occurs five years or more after confirmed eradication in patients with peptic ulcer. Moreover, we sought to determine the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span>. Retrospective and longitudinal, this study was based on a sample of 201 patients from western Paraná, Brazil. The patients were diagnosed with peptic ulcer disease, in the period of 1990-2000, and followed for five years or more after successful H. pylori eradication. Patients with early <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> - prior to five years after eradication - were excluded from the sample. During an average follow-up of 8 years, 180 patients (89.55%) remained negative, and 21 (10.45%) became positive for H. pylori infection. New ulcers appeared in two-thirds of the patients with H. pylori <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. The <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of H. pylori in patients with peptic ulcer can occur in the long-term - even if the infection had been successfully eradicated and the patients had remained free of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> in the first years of follow-up.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018E%26PSL.482..377C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018E%26PSL.482..377C"><span><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> induced variations in extrusion <span class="hlt">rate</span>: A numerical modeling approach to the 2006 eruption of Merapi Volcano (Indonesia)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Carr, Brett B.; Clarke, Amanda B.; de'Michieli Vitturi, Mattia</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>Extrusion <span class="hlt">rates</span> during lava dome-building eruptions are variable and eruption sequences at these volcanoes generally have multiple phases. Merapi Volcano, Java, Indonesia, exemplifies this common style of activity. Merapi is one of Indonesia's most active volcanoes and during the 20th and early 21st centuries effusive activity has been characterized by long periods of very slow (<0.1 m3 s-1) extrusion <span class="hlt">rate</span> interrupted every few years by short episodes of elevated extrusion <span class="hlt">rates</span> (1-4 m3 s-1) lasting weeks to months. One such event occurred in May-July 2006, and previous research has identified multiple phases with different extrusion <span class="hlt">rates</span> and styles of activity. Using input values established in the literature, we apply a 1D, isothermal, steady-state numerical model of magma ascent in a volcanic conduit to explain the variations and gain insight into corresponding conduit processes. The peak phase of the 2006 eruption occurred in the two weeks following the May 27 Mw 6.4 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> 50 km to the south. Previous work has suggested that the peak extrusion <span class="hlt">rates</span> observed in early June were triggered by the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> through either dynamic stress-induced overpressure or the addition of CO2 due to decarbonation and gas escape from new fractures in the bedrock. We use the numerical model to test the feasibility of these proposed hypotheses and show that, in order to explain the observed change in extrusion <span class="hlt">rate</span>, an increase of approximately 5-7 MPa in magma storage zone overpressure is required. We also find that the addition of ∼1000 ppm CO2 to some portion of the magma in the storage zone following the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> reduces water solubility such that gas exsolution is sufficient to generate the required overpressure. Thus, the proposed mechanism of CO2 addition is a viable explanation for the peak phase of the Merapi 2006 eruption. A time-series of extrusion <span class="hlt">rate</span> shows a sudden increase three days following the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. We explain this three-day delay by the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016E%26PSL.433...89S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016E%26PSL.433...89S"><span>Central and eastern Anatolian crustal deformation <span class="hlt">rate</span> and velocity fields derived from GPS and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Simão, N. M.; Nalbant, S. S.; Sunbul, F.; Komec Mutlu, A.</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>We present a new strain-<span class="hlt">rate</span> and associated kinematic model for the eastern and central parts of Turkey. In the east, a quasi N-S compressional tectonic regime dominates the deformation field and is partitioned through the two major structural elements of the region, which are the conjugate dextral strike-slip North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) and the sinistral strike slip East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ). The observed surface deformation is similar to that inferred by anisotropy studies which sampled the region of the mantle closer to the crust (i.e. the lithospheric mantle and the Moho), and is dependent on the presence or absence of a lithospheric mantle, and of the level of coupling between it and the overlaying crust. The areas of the central and eastern parts of Turkey which are deforming at elevated <span class="hlt">rates</span> are situated above areas with strong gradients in crustal thickness. This seems to indicate that these transition zones, situated between thinner and thicker crusts, promote more deformation at the surface. The regions that reveal elevated strain-<span class="hlt">rate</span> values are 1) the Elaziğ-Bingol segment of the EAFZ, 2) the region around the Karlıova triple-junction including the Yedisu segment and the Varto fault, 3) the section of the NAFZ that extends from the Erzincan province up to the NAFZ-Ezinepazarı fault junction, and 4) sections of the Tuz Gölü Fault Zone. Other regions like the Adana basin, a significant part of the Central Anatolian Fault Zone (CAFZ), the Aksaray and the Ankara provinces, are deforming at smaller but still considerable <span class="hlt">rates</span> and therefore should be considered as areas well capable of producing damaging <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (between M6 and 7). This study also reveals that the central part of Turkey is moving at a faster <span class="hlt">rate</span> towards the west than the eastern part Turkey, and that the wedge region between the NAFZ and the EAFZ accounts for the majority of the counter clockwise rotation between the eastern and the central parts of Turkey. This</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.9123K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.9123K"><span>Lake sediment records as <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalogues: A compilation from Swiss lakes - Limitations and possibilities</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kremer, Katrina; Reusch, Anna; Wirth, Stefanie B.; Anselmetti, Flavio S.; Girardclos, Stéphanie; Strasser, Michael</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Intraplate settings are characterized by low deformation <span class="hlt">rates</span> and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> intervals of strong <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> that often exceed the time span covered by instrumental records. Switzerland, as an example for such settings, shows a low instrumentally recorded seismicity, in contrast to strong <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (e.g. 1356 Basel <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, Mw=6.6 and 1601 Unterwalden <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, Mw=5.9) mentioned in the historical archives. As such long <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> do not allow for instrumental identification of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sources of these strong events, and as intense geomorphologic alterations prevent preservation of surface expressions of faults, the knowledge of active faults is very limited. Lake sediments are sensitive to seismic shaking and thus, can be used to extend the regional <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalogue if the sedimentary deposits or deformation structures can be linked to an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Single lake records allow estimating local intensities of shaking while multiple lake records can furthermore be used to compare temporal and spatial distribution of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. In this study, we compile a large dataset of dated sedimentary event deposits recorded in Swiss lakes available from peer-reviewed publications and unpublished master theses. We combine these data in order to detect large prehistoric regional <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> events or periods of intense shaking that might have affected multiple lake settings. In a second step, using empirical seismic attenuation equations, we test if lake records can be used to reconstruct magnitudes and epicentres of identified <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.S51F..08M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.S51F..08M"><span>Insight into the rupture process of a rare tsunami <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> from near-field high-<span class="hlt">rate</span> GPS</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Macpherson, K. A.; Hill, E. M.; Elosegui, P.; Banerjee, P.; Sieh, K. E.</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>We investigated the rupture duration and velocity of the October 25, 2010 Mentawai <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> by examining high-<span class="hlt">rate</span> GPS displacement data. This Mw=7.8 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> appears to have ruptured either an up-dip part of the Sumatran megathrust or a fore-arc splay fault, and produced tsunami run-ups on nearby islands that were out of proportion with its magnitude. It has been described as a so-called "slow tsunami <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>", characterised by a dearth of high-frequency signal and long rupture duration in low-strength, near-surface media. The event was recorded by the Sumatran GPS Array (SuGAr), a network of high-<span class="hlt">rate</span> (1 sec) GPS sensors located on the nearby islands of the Sumatran fore-arc. For this study, the 1 sec time series from 8 SuGAr stations were selected for analysis due to their proximity to the source and high-quality recordings of both static displacements and dynamic waveforms induced by surface waves. The stations are located at epicentral distances of between 50 and 210 km, providing a unique opportunity to observe the dynamic source processes of a tsunami <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> from near-source, high-<span class="hlt">rate</span> GPS. We estimated the rupture duration and velocity by simulating the rupture using the spectral finite-element method SPECFEM and comparing the synthetic time series to the observed surface waves. A slip model from a previous study, derived from the inversion of GPS static offsets and tsunami data, and the CRUST2.0 3D velocity model were used as inputs for the simulations. Rupture duration and velocity were varied for a suite of simulations in order to determine the parameters that produce the best-fitting waveforms.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.T13D2568M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.T13D2568M"><span>New constraints on the late Quaternary slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> history of the Kalabagh fault from geomorphic mapping: Implications for slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> potential of the western Salt Range thrust</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Madugo, C. M.; Meigs, A.; Ramzan, S.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>Whether the basal décollement ruptures in great <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and at what <span class="hlt">rate</span> it slips are open questions for the Pakistani Himalaya. The fact that the southern expression of the décollement, the Salt Range thrust (SRT) is localized in a thick evaporate deposit implies the fault has low strength. The lack of a strong motion event in historic records suggests no large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> have struck this region in the past 2000 years. Because 101 year GPS geodetic slip <span class="hlt">rates</span> for the SRT (~3 mm/yr) are up to four times lower than 106 year geologic <span class="hlt">rates</span> (9-14 mm/yr), it is unknown whether the convergence <span class="hlt">rate</span> has decreased over time, or whether the geodetic data reflect a transient phenomenon such as fault creep on the SRT. To evaluate these end members, we obtained intermediate term (104 yr) slip <span class="hlt">rates</span> from offset geomorphic markers along the Kalabagh fault (KF). The KF is a structurally complex tear fault and lateral ramp that bounds the western side of the SRT. The bending of the western end of the SRT into the KF, and their similar geologic slip <span class="hlt">rates</span>, suggest the faults are kinematically linked. Thus intermediate-scale slip <span class="hlt">rates</span> and perhaps <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> history for the KF represent a proxy for behavior of the SRT. On a section of the KF that exhibits geomorphic evidence of primarily strike slip motion, we identify two partially eroded alluvial fan apexes that are offset up to 300×25 m and 210×30 m from their source channels. Fan reconstructions suggest the offsets are probably not significantly lower than these values. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages of 23×3 ka and 16×2 ka constrain fan surface abandonment. Assuming that fan abandonment accompanied offset by the KF, both fans yield nearly identical slip <span class="hlt">rates</span> of 13×3 mm/yr and 13×4 mm/yr for the KF. Within uncertainty, these <span class="hlt">rates</span> are at the high end of the geologic <span class="hlt">rate</span> for the KF and SRT, and at least several times higher than the geodetic <span class="hlt">rate</span> for the SRT. We also identify evidence of liquefaction</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li class="active"><span>11</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_11 --> <div id="page_12" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li class="active"><span>12</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="221"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26045058','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26045058"><span>Estimating the <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">Rate</span> of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM) in Massachusetts 1998-2007: Methods and Findings.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>England, Lucinda; Kotelchuck, Milton; Wilson, Hoyt G; Diop, Hafsatou; Oppedisano, Paul; Kim, Shin Y; Cui, Xiaohui; Shapiro-Mendoza, Carrie K</p> <p>2015-10-01</p> <p>Women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) may be able to reduce their risk of <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> GDM and progression to type 2 diabetes mellitus through lifestyle change; however, there is limited population-based information on GDM <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span>. We used data from a population of women delivering two sequential live singleton infants in Massachusetts (1998-2007) to estimate the prevalence of chronic diabetes mellitus (CDM) and GDM in parity one pregnancies and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of GDM and progression from GDM to CDM in parity two pregnancies. We examined four diabetes classification approaches; birth certificate (BC) data alone, hospital discharge (HD) data alone, both sources hierarchically combined with a diagnosis of CDM from either source taking priority over a diagnosis of GDM, and both sources combined including only pregnancies with full agreement in diagnosis. Descriptive statistics were used to describe population characteristics, prevalence of CDM and GDM, and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of diabetes in successive pregnancies. Diabetes classification agreement was assessed using the Kappa statistic. Associated maternal characteristics were examined through adjusted model-based t tests and Chi square tests. A total of 134,670 women with two sequential deliveries of parities one and two were identified. While there was only slight agreement on GDM classification across HD and BC records, estimates of GDM <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> were fairly consistent; nearly half of women with GDM in their parity one pregnancy developed GDM in their subsequent pregnancy. While estimates of progression from GDM to CDM across sequential pregnancies were more variable, all approaches yielded estimates of ≤5 %. The development of either GDM or CDM following a parity one pregnancy with no diagnosis of diabetes was <3 % across approaches. Women with <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> GDM were disproportionately older and foreign born. <span class="hlt">Recurrent</span> GDM is a serious life course public health issue; the inter-pregnancy interval provides an</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27299734','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27299734"><span>Association of the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> and canceration <span class="hlt">rate</span> of vocal leukoplakia with interleukin-10 promoter variants over a 2-year period.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Zhou, Jian; Zhang, Duo; Zhou, Liang; Yang, Yue; Liu, Fei; Tao, Lei; Lu, Li-Ming</p> <p>2016-11-01</p> <p>Conclusion This study indicates that IL-10 promoter polymorphism variants, smoking, and alcohol consumption increase the risk of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> and canceration in vocal leukoplakia. Objective This prospective, clinical trial was performed to evaluate the association of interleukin (IL)-10 promoter polymorphism variants and canceration and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> in vocal leukoplakia (a pre-cancerous laryngeal carcinoma lesion) over a 2-year period. Participants and method Sixty-one post-operative patients with vocal leukoplakia were enrolled in this prospective, observational study and genotyped for the IL-10 promoter gene (IL-10-1082 A/G, -819 T/C and -592 A/C) using pyrosequencing, and responded to a 2-year follow-up survey. <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> and canceration <span class="hlt">rates</span> were used to evaluate the association between the genotype variants and the clinical outcome. Results There was an increased canceration <span class="hlt">rate</span> in the variant genotype group compared to that in the normal genotype group in the 2-year follow-up period (18.4% vs 0%, p-value = 0.038). Compared with the non-smoker group, the smoker group had a higher <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> of vocal leukoplakia (29.3% vs 5%, p-value =0.044). Likewise, the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> in the alcohol consumption group was also higher (30.6% vs 8%, p-value =0.034). The percentage of cancerization in the alcohol consumption group was significantly higher than that in the non-alcohol consumption group (19.4% vs 0%, p-value =0.035).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19860035481&hterms=recurrence+sequences&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Drecurrence%2Bsequences','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19860035481&hterms=recurrence+sequences&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Drecurrence%2Bsequences"><span>Surface deformation associated with the November 23, 1977, Caucete, Argentina, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequence</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Kadinsky-Cade, K.; Reilinger, R.; Isacks, B.</p> <p>1985-01-01</p> <p>The 1977 Caucete (San Juan) <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> considered in the present paper occurred near the Sierra Pie de Palo in the Sierras Pampeanas tectonic province of western Argentina. In the study reported, coseismic surface deformation is combined with seismic observations (main shock and aftershocks, both teleseismic and local data) to place constraints on the geometry and slip of the main fault responsible for the 1977 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The implications of the 1977 event for long-term crustal shortening and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> in this region are also discussed. It is concluded that the 1977 Caucete <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> was accompanied by more than 1 m of vertical uplift.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/21587720-failure-rates-patterns-recurrence-patients-resected-n1-non-small-cell-lung-cancer','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/21587720-failure-rates-patterns-recurrence-patients-resected-n1-non-small-cell-lung-cancer"><span>Failure <span class="hlt">Rates</span> and Patterns of <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> in Patients With Resected N1 Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Varlotto, John M., E-mail: jvarlotto@hmc.psu.edu; Medford-Davis, Laura Nyshel; Recht, Abram</p> <p>2011-10-01</p> <p>Purpose: To examine the local and distant <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> and patterns of failure in patients undergoing potentially curative resection of N1 non-small-cell lung cancer. Methods and Materials: The study included 60 consecutive unirradiated patients treated from 2000 to 2006. Median follow-up was 30 months. Failure <span class="hlt">rates</span> were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method. A univariate Cox proportional hazard model was used to assess factors associated with <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. Results: Local and distant failure <span class="hlt">rates</span> (as the first site of failure) at 2, 3, and 5 years were 33%, 33%, and 46%; and 26%, 26%, and 32%, respectively. The most common site ofmore » local failure was in the mediastinum; 12 of 18 local <span class="hlt">recurrences</span> would have been included within proposed postoperative radiotherapy fields. Patients who received chemotherapy were found to be at increased risk of local failure, whereas those who underwent pneumonectomy or who had more positive nodes had significantly increased risks of distant failure. Conclusions: Patients with resected non-small-cell lung cancer who have N1 disease are at substantial risk of local <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> as the first site of relapse, which is greater than the risk of distant failure. The role of postoperative radiotherapy in such patients should be revisited in the era of adjuvant chemotherapy.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11704950','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11704950"><span>Comparison of the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> of gastric dilatation with or without volvulus in dogs after circumcostal gastropexy versus gastrocolopexy.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Eggertsdóttir, A V; Stigen y, Ø; Lønaas, L; Langeland, M; Devor, M; Vibe-Petersen, G; Eriksen, T</p> <p>2001-01-01</p> <p>To compare the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> of acute gastric dilatation with or without volvulus (GDV) after circumcostal gastropexy (CCGP) or gastrocolopexy (GCP) in dogs. A prospective, double-blind, multicenter, randomized, controlled, clinical trial with two groups (A and B). Fifty-four client-owned dogs presented for treatment of GDV. Dogs with acute GDV that had not previously had a gastropexy performed were included. The preoperative treatment before gastropexy was standardized. A CCGP was performed on dogs in group A, and a GCP was performed on dogs in group B. Postoperative treatment was standardized, but deviation did occur according to the special needs of particular patients. A minimal follow-up time of 180 days was required for dogs not excluded from the study. The median follow-up time in group A was 700 days; in group B, it was 400 days. The occurrence of abdominal pain and gastrointestinal problems after surgery were recorded by the owners. There was no significant difference in the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> of GDV between the two groups. At the end of the study, the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> was 9% and 20% in group A and in group B, respectively. Both surgical techniques are effective in preventing <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of GDV. Copyright 2001 by The American College of Veterinary Surgeons</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMMR33A2640A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMMR33A2640A"><span>High strain <span class="hlt">rate</span> behavior of saturated and non-saturated sandstone: implications for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> mechanisms.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Aben, F. M.; Doan, M. L.; Gratier, J. P.; Renard, F.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Damage zones of active faults control their resistance to rupture and transport properties. Hence, knowing the damage's origin is crucial to shed light on the (paleo)seismic behavior of the fault. Coseismic damage in the damage zone occurs by stress-wave loading of a passing <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture tip, resulting in dynamic (high strain <span class="hlt">rate</span>) loading and subsequent dynamic fracturing or pulverization. Recently, interest in this type of damage has increased and several experimental studies were performed on dry rock specimens to search for pulverization-controlling parameters. However, the influence of fluids in during dynamic loading needs to be constrained. Hence, we have performed compressional dynamic loading experiments on water saturated and oven dried Vosges sandstone samples using a Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar apparatus. Due to the high porosity in these rocks, close to 20%, the effect of fluids should be clear. Afterwards, microstructural analyses have been applied on thin sections. Water saturated samples reveal dynamic mechanical behavior that follows linear poro-elasticity for undrained conditions: the peak strength of the sample decreases by 30-50% and the accumulated strain increases relative to the dry samples that were tested under similar conditions. The mechanical behavior of partially saturated samples falls in between. Microstructural studies on thin section show that fractures are restricted to some quartz grains while other quartz grains remain intact, similar to co-seismically damaged sandstones observed in the field. Most deformation is accommodated by inter-granular processes, thereby appointing an important role to the cement matrix in between grains. Intra-granular fracture damage is highest for the saturated samples. The presence of pore fluids in the rocks lower the dynamic peak strength, especially since fast dynamic loading does not allow for time-dependent fluid dissipation. Thus, fluid-saturated rocks would show undrained mechanical</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70159632','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70159632"><span><span class="hlt">Rates</span> and patterns of surface deformation from laser scanning following the South Napa <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, California</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>DeLong, Stephen B.; Lienkaemper, James J.; Pickering, Alexandra J; Avdievitch, Nikita N.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>The A.D. 2014 M6.0 South Napa <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, despite its moderate magnitude, caused significant damage to the Napa Valley in northern California (USA). Surface rupture occurred along several mapped and unmapped faults. Field observations following the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> indicated that the magnitude of postseismic surface slip was likely to approach or exceed the maximum coseismic surface slip and as such presented ongoing hazard to infrastructure. Using a laser scanner, we monitored postseismic deformation in three dimensions through time along 0.5 km of the main surface rupture. A key component of this study is the demonstration of proper alignment of repeat surveys using point cloud–based methods that minimize error imposed by both local survey errors and global navigation satellite system georeferencing errors. Using solid modeling of natural and cultural features, we quantify dextral postseismic displacement at several hundred points near the main fault trace. We also quantify total dextral displacement of initially straight cultural features. Total dextral displacement from both coseismic displacement and the first 2.5 d of postseismic displacement ranges from 0.22 to 0.29 m. This range increased to 0.33–0.42 m at 59 d post-<span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Furthermore, we estimate up to 0.15 m of vertical deformation during the first 2.5 d post-<span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, which then increased by ∼0.02 m at 59 d post-<span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. This vertical deformation is not expressed as a distinct step or scarp at the fault trace but rather as a broad up-to-the-west zone of increasing elevation change spanning the fault trace over several tens of meters, challenging common notions about fault scarp development in strike-slip systems. Integrating these analyses provides three-dimensional mapping of surface deformation and identifies spatial variability in slip along the main fault trace that we attribute to distributed slip via subtle block rotation. These results indicate the benefits of laser scanner surveys along</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/21491626-reirradiation-large-volume-recurrent-glioma-pulsed-reduced-dose-rate-radiotherapy','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/21491626-reirradiation-large-volume-recurrent-glioma-pulsed-reduced-dose-rate-radiotherapy"><span>Reirradiation of Large-Volume <span class="hlt">Recurrent</span> Glioma With Pulsed Reduced-Dose-<span class="hlt">Rate</span> Radiotherapy</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Adkison, Jarrod B.; Tome, Wolfgang; Department of Medical Physics, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, WI</p> <p>2011-03-01</p> <p>Purpose: Pulsed reduced-dose-<span class="hlt">rate</span> radiotherapy (PRDR) is a reirradiation technique that reduces the effective dose <span class="hlt">rate</span> and increases the treatment time, allowing sublethal damage repair during irradiation. Patients and Methods: A total of 103 patients with <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> glioma underwent reirradiation using PRDR (86 considered to have Grade 4 at PRDR). PRDR was delivered using a series of 0.2-Gy pulses at 3-min intervals, creating an apparent dose <span class="hlt">rate</span> of 0.0667 Gy/min to a median dose of 50 Gy (range, 20-60) delivered in 1.8-2.0-Gy fractions. The mean treatment volume was 403.5 {+-} 189.4 cm{sup 3} according to T{sub 2}-weighted magnetic resonance imaging andmore » a 2-cm margin. Results: For the initial or upgraded Grade 4 cohort (n = 86), the median interval from the first irradiation to PRDR was 14 months. Patients undergoing PRDR within 14 months of the first irradiation (n = 43) had a median survival of 21 weeks. Those treated {>=}14 months after radiotherapy had a median survival of 28 weeks (n = 43; p = 0.004 and HR = 1.82 with a 95% CI ranging from 1.25 to 3.10). These data compared favorably to historical data sets, because only 16% of the patients were treated at first relapse (with 46% treated at the second relapse, 32% at the third or fourth relapse, and 4% at the fourth or fifth relapse). The median survival since diagnosis and retreatment was 6.3 years and 11.4 months for low-grade, 4.1 years and 5.6 months for Grade 3, and 1.6 years and 5.1 months for Grade 4 tumors, respectively, according to the initial histologic findings. Multivariate analysis revealed age at the initial diagnosis, initial low-grade disease, and Karnofsky performance score of {>=}80 to be significant predictors of survival after initiation of PRDR. Conclusion: PRDR allowed for safe retreatment of larger volumes to high doses with palliative benefit.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70036982','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70036982"><span>Assessment of tsunami hazard to the U.S. East Coast using relationships between submarine landslides and <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>ten Brink, Uri S.; Lee, H.J.; Geist, E.L.; Twichell, D.</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>Submarine landslides along the continental slope of the U.S. Atlantic margin are potential sources for tsunamis along the U.S. East coast. The magnitude of potential tsunamis depends on the volume and location of the landslides, and tsunami frequency depends on their <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> interval. However, the size and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> interval of submarine landslides along the U.S. Atlantic margin is poorly known. Well-studied landslide-generated tsunamis in other parts of the world have been shown to be associated with <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Because the size distribution and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> interval of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> is generally better known than those for submarine landslides, we propose here to estimate the size and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> interval of submarine landslides from the size and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> interval of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the near vicinity of the said landslides. To do so, we calculate maximum expected landslide size for a given <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> magnitude, use <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> interval of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> to estimate <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> interval of landslide, and assume a threshold landslide size that can generate a destructive tsunami. The maximum expected landslide size for a given <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> magnitude is calculated in 3 ways: by slope stability analysis for catastrophic slope failure on the Atlantic continental margin, by using land-based compilation of maximum observed distance from <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> to liquefaction, and by using land-based compilation of maximum observed area of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-induced landslides. We find that the calculated distances and failure areas from the slope stability analysis is similar or slightly smaller than the maximum triggering distances and failure areas in subaerial observations. The results from all three methods compare well with the slope failure observations of the Mw = 7.2, 1929 Grand Banks <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, the only historical tsunamigenic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> along the North American Atlantic margin. The results further suggest that a Mw = 7.5 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (the largest expected <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in the eastern U</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28589253','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28589253"><span>Early PET imaging with [68]Ga-PSMA-11 increases the detection <span class="hlt">rate</span> of local <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> in prostate cancer patients with biochemical <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Uprimny, Christian; Kroiss, Alexander Stephan; Fritz, Josef; Decristoforo, Clemens; Kendler, Dorota; von Guggenberg, Elisabeth; Nilica, Bernhard; Maffey-Steffan, Johanna; di Santo, Gianpaolo; Bektic, Jasmin; Horninger, Wolfgang; Virgolini, Irene Johanna</p> <p>2017-09-01</p> <p>PET/CT using 68 Ga-labelled prostate-specific membrane antigen PSMA-11 (HBEDD-CC) has emerged as a promising imaging method in the diagnostic evaluation of prostate cancer (PC) patients with biochemical <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. However, assessment of local <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> (LR) may be limited by intense physiologic tracer accumulation in the urinary bladder on whole-body scans, normally conducted 60 min post-tracer injection (p.i.). It could be shown on early dynamic imaging studies that 68 Ga-PSMA-11 uptake in PC lesions occurs earlier than tracer accumulation in the urinary bladder. This study aims to investigate whether early static PET acquisition increases detection <span class="hlt">rate</span> of local <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> on 68 Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT in comparison to PET imaging 60 min p.i.. 203 consecutive PC patients with biochemical failure referred to 68 Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT were analysed retrospectively (median prostate specific antigen (PSA) value: 1.44 ng/ml). In addition to whole-body PET/CT scans 60 min p.i., early static imaging of the pelvis was performed, starting at a median time of 283 s p.i. (range: 243-491 s). Assessment was based on visual analysis and calculation of maximum standardized uptake value (SUV max ) of pathologic lesions present in the pelvic area found on early PET imaging and on 60 min-PET scans. 26 patients (12.8%) were judged positive for LR on PET scans 60 min p.i. (median SUV max : 10.8; range: 4.7-40.9), whereas 50 patients (24.6%) revealed a lesion suggestive of LR on early PET imaging (median SUV max : 5.9; range: 2.9-17.6), resulting in a significant rise in detection <span class="hlt">rate</span> (p < 0.001). Equivocal findings on PET scans 60 min p.i. decreased significantly with the help of early imaging (15.8% vs. 4.5% of patients; p < 0.001). Tracer activity in the urinary bladder with a median SUV max of 8.2 was present in 63 patients on early PET scans (31.0%). However, acquisition starting time of early PET scans differed significantly in the patient groups with and without urinary</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21334827','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21334827"><span>Analysis of the burns profile and the admission <span class="hlt">rate</span> of severely burned adult patient to the National Burn Center of Chile after the 2010 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Albornoz, Claudia; Villegas, Jorge; Sylvester, Marilu; Peña, Veronica; Bravo, Iside</p> <p>2011-06-01</p> <p>Chile is located in the Ring of Fire, in South America. An <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> 8.8° affected 80% of the population in February 27th, 2010. This study was conducted to assess any change in burns profile caused by the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. This was an ecologic study. We compared the 4 months following the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in 2009 and 2010. age, TBSA, deep TBSA, agent, specific mortality <span class="hlt">rate</span> and <span class="hlt">rate</span> of admissions to the National burn Center of Chile. Mann-Whitney test and a Poisson regression were performed. Age, agent, TBSA and deep TBSA percentages did not show any difference. Mortality <span class="hlt">rate</span> was lower in 2010 (0.52 versus 1.22 per 1,000,000 habitants) but no meaningful difference was found (Poisson regression p = 0.06). Admission <span class="hlt">rate</span> was lower in 2010, 4.6 versus 5.6 per 1,000,000 habitants, but no differences were found (p = 0.26). There was not any admissions directly related to the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. As we do not have incidence registries in Chile, we propose to use the <span class="hlt">rate</span> of admission to the National Burn Reference Center as an incidence estimator. There was not any significant difference in the burn profile, probably because of the time of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (3 am). We conclude the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> did not affect the way the Chilean people get burned. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24877254','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24877254"><span>Prediction of non-biochemical <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> after radical prostatectomy in a Japanese cohort: development of a postoperative nomogram.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Okubo, Hidenori; Ohori, Makoto; Ohno, Yoshio; Nakashima, Jun; Inoue, Rie; Nagao, Toshitaka; Tachibana, Masaaki</p> <p>2014-05-01</p> <p>To develop a nomogram based on postoperative factors and prostate-specific antigen levels to predict the non-biochemical <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> after radical prostatectomy ina Japanese cohort. A total of 606 Japanese patients with T1-3N0M0 prostate cancer who underwent radical prostatectomy and pelvic lymph node dissection at Tokyo Medical University hospital from 2000 to 2010 were studied. A nomogram was constructed based on Cox hazard regression analysis evaluating the prognostic significance of serum prostate-specific antigen and pathological factors in the radical prostatectomy specimens. The discriminating ability of the nomogram was assessed by the concordance index (C-index), and the predicted and actual outcomes were compared with a bootstrapped calibration plot. With a mean follow up of 60.0 months, a total of 187 patients (30.9%) experienced biochemical <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>, with a 5-year non-biochemical <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> of 72.3%. Based on a Cox hazard regression model, a nomogram was constructed to predict non-biochemical <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> using serum prostate-specific antigen level and pathological features in radical prostatectomy specimens. The concordance index was 0.77, and the calibration plots appeared to be accurate. The postoperative nomogram described here can provide valuable information regarding the need for adjuvant/salvage radiation or hormonal therapy in patients after radical prostatectomy.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28423231','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28423231"><span>Direct-acting antiviral therapy decreases hepatocellular carcinoma <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> in cirrhotic patients with chronic hepatitis C.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Virlogeux, Victor; Pradat, Pierre; Hartig-Lavie, Kerstin; Bailly, François; Maynard, Marianne; Ouziel, Guillaume; Poinsot, Domitille; Lebossé, Fanny; Ecochard, Marie; Radenne, Sylvie; Benmakhlouf, Samir; Koffi, Joseph; Lack, Philippe; Scholtes, Caroline; Uhres, Anne-Claire; Ducerf, Christian; Mabrut, Jean-Yves; Rode, Agnès; Levrero, Massimo; Combet, Christophe; Merle, Philippe; Zoulim, Fabien</p> <p>2017-08-01</p> <p>Arrival of direct-acting antiviral agents against hepatitis C virus with high-sustained virological response <span class="hlt">rates</span> and very few side effects has drastically changed the management of hepatitis C virus infection. The impact of direct-acting antiviral exposure on hepatocellular carcinoma <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> after a first remission in patients with advanced fibrosis remains to be clarified. 68 consecutive hepatitis C virus patients with a first hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosis and under remission, subsequently treated or not with a direct-acting antiviral combination, were included. Clinical, biological and virological data were collected at first hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosis, at remission and during the surveillance period. All patients were cirrhotic. Median age was 62 years and 76% of patients were male. Twenty-three patients (34%) were treated with direct-acting antivirals and 96% of them achieved sustained virological response. Median time between hepatocellular carcinoma remission and direct-acting antivirals initiation was 7.2 months (IQR: 3.6-13.5; range: 0.3-71.4) and median time between direct-acting antivirals start and hepatocellular carcinoma <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> was 13.0 months (IQR: 9.2-19.6; range: 3.0-24.7). <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> was 1.7/100 person-months among treated patients vs 4.2/100 person-months among untreated patients (P=.008). In multivariate survival analysis, the hazard ratio for hepatocellular carcinoma <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> after direct-acting antivirals exposure was 0.24 (95% confidence interval: 0.10-0.55; P<.001). Hepatocellular carcinoma <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> was significantly lower among patients treated with direct-acting antivirals compared with untreated patients. Given the potential impact of our observation, large-scale prospective cohort studies are needed to confirm these results. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25970955','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25970955"><span>Pregnancy and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> in infertile patients operated for ovarian endometriosis.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Luţuc, Monica Holicov; Nemescu, D; Onofriescu, Alina; Târnovanu, Mihaela; Moscalu, Mihaela; Onofriescu, M</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>The study deals with the preoperative ultrasound diagnosis of ovarian endometriosis, postoperative ultrasound reassessment, laparoscopic surgical resolution of ovarian endometriosis, estimation of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> risk 12 months after surgery by ultrasound, reappearance of clinical symptoms (such as pain) or second-look laparoscopy, and pregnancy <span class="hlt">rate</span> 2 years after surgery. 140 patients with en- dometriosis and infertility admitted to the Iasi "Cuza-Vodă" Clinical Hospital of Obstetrics and Gynecology between the years 2009-2011 were included in the study. The patients were divided into 2 groups: group 1-59 cases that refused in vitro fertilization procedures, did not afford in vitro fertilization (IVF) or had minimal endometriosis and young ages and thus a possibility of delaying treatment, and group 2--62 cases which underwent IVF procedures immediately after surgery. No significant differences in the chance of becoming pregnant were found between the two groups (χ2 = 2.06, p = 0.0891, 95% CI); in group 1, 11.86% pregnancies were obtained while in group 2 the pregnancy <span class="hlt">rate</span> was 11.29%. Based on the nonparametric method of analysis of contingency tables we could estimate the odds of becoming pregnant in the study groups, obtaining an odds ratio (OR = 1.16, CI: 1.04-2.23, 95% CI). This result indicated that in group 1 the odds of becoming pregnant was not significantly higher, and the estimation was made for a confidence interval of 95%. The study had in view the assessment of pregnancies obtained in the study groups and the time interval (number of weeks) from the time of intervention until the occurrence of pregnancy. The Kaplan-Meier analysis enabled the assessment of the mean value and the median value of the number of weeks until becoming pregnant, and these values did not show significant differences (χ2 = 1.55, p = 0.212, 95% CI). For endometriosis associated with infertility, hormonal suppression does not improve fertility, and therefore surgery followed by</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20433639','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20433639"><span>Single-nucleotide polymorphisms and mRNA expression for melatonin synthesis <span class="hlt">rate</span>-limiting enzyme in <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> depressive disorder.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Gałecki, Piotr; Szemraj, Janusz; Bartosz, Grzegorz; Bieńkiewicz, Małgorzata; Gałecka, Elzbieta; Florkowski, Antoni; Lewiński, Andrzej; Karbownik-Lewińska, Małgorzata</p> <p>2010-05-01</p> <p>Depressive disorder (DD) is characterised by disturbances in blood melatonin concentration. It is well known that melatonin is involved in the control of circadian rhythms, sleep included. The use of melatonin and its analogues has been found to be effective in depression therapy. Melatonin synthesis is a multistage process, where the last stage is catalysed by acetylserotonin methyltransferase (ASMT), the reported <span class="hlt">rate</span>-limiting melatonin synthesis enzyme. Taking into account the significance of genetic factors in depression development, the gene for ASMT may become an interesting focus for studies in patients with <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> DD. The goal of the study was to evaluate two single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (rs4446909; rs5989681) of the ASMT gene, as well as mRNA expression for ASMT in <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> DD-affected patients. We genotyped two polymorphisms in a group of 181 <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> DD patients and in 149 control subjects. The study was performed using the polymerase chain reaction/restriction fragment length polymorphism method. The distribution of genotypes in both studied SNPs in the ASMT gene differed significantly between DD and healthy subjects. The presence of AA genotype of rs4446909 polymorphism and of GG genotype of rs5989681 polymorphism was associated with lower risk for having <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> DD. In turn, patients with depression were characterised by reduced mRNA expression for ASMT. In addition, ASMT transcript level in both <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> DD patients and in healthy subjects depended significantly on genotype distributions in both polymorphisms. In conclusion, our results suggest the ASMT gene as a susceptibility gene for <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> DD.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JGRB..121.3586B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JGRB..121.3586B"><span>Bayesian probabilities for Mw 9.0+ <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the Aleutian Islands from a regionally scaled global <span class="hlt">rate</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Butler, Rhett; Frazer, L. Neil; Templeton, William J.</p> <p>2016-05-01</p> <p>We use the global <span class="hlt">rate</span> of Mw ≥ 9.0 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, and standard Bayesian procedures, to estimate the probability of such mega events in the Aleutian Islands, where they pose a significant risk to Hawaii. We find that the probability of such an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> along the Aleutians island arc is 6.5% to 12% over the next 50 years (50% credibility interval) and that the annualized risk to Hawai'i is about $30 M. Our method (the regionally scaled global <span class="hlt">rate</span> method or RSGR) is to scale the global <span class="hlt">rate</span> of Mw 9.0+ events in proportion to the fraction of global subduction (units of area per year) that takes place in the Aleutians. The RSGR method assumes that Mw 9.0+ events are a Poisson process with a <span class="hlt">rate</span> that is both globally and regionally stationary on the time scale of centuries, and it follows the principle of Burbidge et al. (2008) who used the product of fault length and convergence <span class="hlt">rate</span>, i.e., the area being subducted per annum, to scale the Poisson <span class="hlt">rate</span> for the GSS to sections of the Indonesian subduction zone. Before applying RSGR to the Aleutians, we first apply it to five other regions of the global subduction system where its <span class="hlt">rate</span> predictions can be compared with those from paleotsunami, paleoseismic, and geoarcheology data. To obtain regional <span class="hlt">rates</span> from paleodata, we give a closed-form solution for the probability density function of the Poisson <span class="hlt">rate</span> when event count and observation time are both uncertain.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.S53D..07F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.S53D..07F"><span>Toward a physics-based <span class="hlt">rate</span> and state friction law for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> nucleation processes in fault zones with granular gouge</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ferdowsi, B.; Rubin, A. M.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Numerical simulations of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> nucleation rely on constitutive <span class="hlt">rate</span> and state evolution laws to model <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> initiation and propagation processes. The response of different state evolution laws to large velocity increases is an important feature of these constitutive relations that can significantly change the style of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> nucleation in numerical models. However, currently there is not a rigorous understanding of the physical origins of the response of bare rock or gouge-filled fault zones to large velocity increases. This in turn hinders our ability to design physics-based friction laws that can appropriately describe those responses. We here argue that most fault zones form a granular gouge after an initial shearing phase and that it is the behavior of the gouge layer that controls the fault friction. We perform numerical experiments of a confined sheared granular gouge under a range of confining stresses and driving velocities relevant to fault zones and apply 1-3 order of magnitude velocity steps to explore dynamical behavior of the system from grain- to macro-scales. We compare our numerical observations with experimental data from biaxial double-direct-shear fault gouge experiments under equivalent loading and driving conditions. Our intention is to first investigate the degree to which these numerical experiments, with Hertzian normal and Coulomb friction laws at the grain-grain contact scale and without any time-dependent plasticity, can reproduce experimental fault gouge behavior. We next compare the behavior observed in numerical experiments with predictions of the Dieterich (Aging) and Ruina (Slip) friction laws. Finally, the numerical observations at the grain and meso-scales will be used for designing a <span class="hlt">rate</span> and state evolution law that takes into account recent advances in rheology of granular systems, including local and non-local effects, for a wide range of shear <span class="hlt">rates</span> and slow and fast deformation regimes of the fault gouge.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1162/','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1162/"><span><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Rate</span> Model 2.2 of the 2007 Working Group for California <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Probabilities, Appendix D: Magnitude-Area Relationships</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Stein, Ross S.</p> <p>2007-01-01</p> <p>Summary To estimate the down-dip coseismic fault dimension, W, the Executive Committee has chosen the Nazareth and Hauksson (2004) method, which uses the 99% depth of background seismicity to assign W. For the predicted <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> magnitude-fault area scaling used to estimate the maximum magnitude of an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture from a fault's length, L, and W, the Committee has assigned equal weight to the Ellsworth B (Working Group on California <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Probabilities, 2003) and Hanks and Bakun (2002) (as updated in 2007) equations. The former uses a single relation; the latter uses a bilinear relation which changes slope at M=6.65 (A=537 km2).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29274197','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29274197"><span>Increased <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> of hepatocellular carcinoma after DAA therapy in a hepatitis C-infected Egyptian cohort: A comparative analysis.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>El Kassas, M; Funk, A L; Salaheldin, M; Shimakawa, Y; Eltabbakh, M; Jean, K; El Tahan, A; Sweedy, A T; Afify, S; Youssef, N F; Esmat, G; Fontanet, A</p> <p>2018-06-01</p> <p>In Egypt, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common form of cancer and direct-acting antivirals (DAA) are administered on a large scale to patients with chronic HCV infection to reduce the risk. In this unique setting, we aimed to determine the association of DAA exposure with early-phase HCC <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> in patients with a history of HCV-related liver cancer. This was a prospective cohort study of an HCV-infected population from one Egyptian specialized HCC management centre starting from the time of successful HCC intervention. The incidence <span class="hlt">rates</span> of HCC <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> between DAA-exposed and nonexposed patients were compared, starting from date of HCC complete radiological response and censoring after 2 years. DAA exposure was treated as time varying. Two Poisson regressions models were used to control for potential differences in the exposed and nonexposed group; multivariable adjustment and balancing using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). We included 116 patients: 53 treated with DAAs and 63 not treated with DAAs. There was 37.7% and 25.4% <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> in each group after a median of 16.0 and 23.0 months of follow-up, respectively. Poisson regression using IPTW demonstrated an association between DAAs and HCC <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> with an incidence <span class="hlt">rate</span> ratio of 3.83 (95% CI: 2.02-7.25), which was similar in the multivariable-adjusted model and various sensitivity analyses. These results add important evidence towards the possible role of DAAs in HCC <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> and stress the need for further mechanistic studies and clinical trials to accurately confirm this role and to identify patient characteristics that may be associated with this event. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.S23E..04H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.S23E..04H"><span>Dynamic strain and rotation ground motions of the 2011 Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> from dense high-<span class="hlt">rate</span> GPS observations in Taiwan</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Huang, B. S.; Rau, R. J.; Lin, C. J.; Kuo, L. C.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Seismic waves generated by the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku, Japan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> were well recorded by continuous GPS in Taiwan. Those GPS were operated in one hertz sampling <span class="hlt">rate</span> and densely distributed in Taiwan Island. Those continuous GPS observations and the precise point positioning technique provide an opportunity to estimate spatial derivatives from absolute ground motions of this giant teleseismic event. In this study, we process and investigate more than one and half hundred high-<span class="hlt">rate</span> GPS displacements and its spatial derivatives, thus strain and rotations, to compare to broadband seismic and rotational sensor observations. It is shown that continuous GPS observations are highly consistent with broadband seismic observations during its surface waves across Taiwan Island. Several standard Geodesy and seismic array analysis techniques for spatial gradients have been applied to those continuous GPS time series to determine its dynamic strain and rotation time histories. Results show that those derivate GPS vertical axis ground rotations are consistent to seismic array determined rotations. However, vertical rotation-<span class="hlt">rate</span> observations from the R1 rotational sensors have low resolutions and could not compared with GPS observations for this special event. For its dese spatial distribution of GPS stations in Taiwan Island, not only wavefield gradient time histories at individual site was obtained but also 2-D spatial ground motion fields were determined in this study also. In this study, we will report the analyzed results of those spatial gradient wavefields of the 2011 Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> across Taiwan Island and discuss its geological implications.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li class="active"><span>12</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_12 --> <div id="page_13" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li class="active"><span>13</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="241"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22172852','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22172852"><span><span class="hlt">Rate</span> of tumor growth predicts <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation in patients beyond Milan or UCSF criteria.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Hanouneh, I A; Macaron, C; Lopez, R; Aucejo, F; Zein, N N</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>It is likely that some patients whose tumor burdens exceed the current transplant criteria have favorable tumor biology, and that these patients would have low risk of tumor <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> after liver transplantation (LT). To assess the <span class="hlt">rate</span> of tumor growth as selection criteria for LT in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We identified all patients who underwent LT for HCC in our institution from 2002 to 2008. Total tumor volume (TTV) was calculated as the sum of the volumes of all tumors on pretransplantation imaging [(4/3)πr3, where r is the maximum radius of each HCC]. The <span class="hlt">rate</span> of tumor growth was calculated as per-month change in TTV on sequential pretransplantation imaging before any locoregional therapy. A Kaplan-Meier plot was constructed and Cox regression analysis performed. Ninety-two patients were included in the study. The median follow-up was 19.5 (range 10.7-30.7) months during which 12 patients (13%) experienced <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of HCC. Twenty-four patients (26%) had HCC beyond the Milan criteria, and the overall survival <span class="hlt">rate</span> of the entire group was 72%. Higher pre-LT alpha-fetoprotein (hazard ratio [HR] 1.01; P=.001), poorly differentiated tumors (HR 13; P=.039), the presence of microvascular invasion (HR 7.9; P=.001), higher TTV (HR 1.03; P<.001), and faster tumor growth (HR 1.09; P<.001) were significantly associated with the risk of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. A cutoff value of tumor growth of 1.61 cm3/mo was chosen on the basis of the risk of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> with the use of a receiver operating characteristic curve. Patients beyond the Milan criteria with tumor growth<1.61 cm3/mo experienced less <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> (11% vs 58%; P=.023) than those beyond the Milan criteria with tumor growth>1.61 cm3/mo. Similarly, <span class="hlt">rate</span> of tumor growth predicted HCC <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> in those beyond the University of California of San Francisco (UCSF) criteria. Patients with slowly growing tumor who would be currently excluded from LT because tumor burden exceeds traditional Milan and UCSF</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JSeis..22..303P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JSeis..22..303P"><span>Temporal and spatial distributions of precursory seismicity <span class="hlt">rate</span> changes in the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar border region: implication for upcoming hazardous <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Puangjaktha, Prayot; Pailoplee, Santi</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>To study the prospective areas of upcoming strong-to-major <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, i.e., M w ≥ 6.0, a catalog of seismicity in the vicinity of the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar border region was generated and then investigated statistically. Based on the successful investigations of previous works, the seismicity <span class="hlt">rate</span> change (Z value) technique was applied in this study. According to the completeness <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> dataset, eight available case studies of strong-to-major <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> were investigated retrospectively. After iterative tests of the characteristic parameters concerning the number of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> ( N) and time window ( T w ), the values of 50 and 1.2 years, respectively, were found to reveal an anomalous high Z-value peak (seismic quiescence) prior to the occurrence of six out of the eight major <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> events studied. In addition, the location of the Z-value anomalies conformed fairly well to the epicenters of those <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Based on the investigation of correlation coefficient and the stochastic test of the Z values, the parameters used here ( N = 50 events and T w = 1.2 years) were suitable to determine the precursory Z value and not random phenomena. The Z values of this study and the frequency-magnitude distribution b values of a previous work both highlighted the same prospective areas that might generate an upcoming major <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>: (i) some areas in the northern part of Laos and (ii) the eastern part of Myanmar.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.S23A4489F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.S23A4489F"><span>Quantifying the <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Clustering that Independent Sources with Stationary <span class="hlt">Rates</span> (as Included in Current Risk Models) Can Produce.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Fitzenz, D. D.; Nyst, M.; Apel, E. V.; Muir-Wood, R.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>The recent Canterbury <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequence (CES) renewed public and academic awareness concerning the clustered nature of seismicity. Multiple event occurrence in short time and space intervals is reminiscent of aftershock sequences, but aftershock is a statistical definition, not a label one can give an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in real-time. Aftershocks are defined collectively as what creates the Omori event <span class="hlt">rate</span> decay after a large event or are defined as what is taken away as "dependent events" using a declustering method. It is noteworthy that depending on the declustering method used on the Canterbury <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequence, the number of independent events varies a lot. This lack of unambiguous definition of aftershocks leads to the need to investigate the amount of clustering inherent in "declustered" risk models. This is the task we concentrate on in this contribution. We start from a background source model for the Canterbury region, in which 1) centroids of events of given magnitude are distributed using a latin-hypercube lattice, 2) following the range of preferential orientations determined from stress maps and focal mechanism, 3) with length determined using the local scaling relationship and 4) <span class="hlt">rates</span> from a and b values derived from the declustered pre-2010 catalog. We then proceed to create tens of thousands of realizations of 6 to 20 year periods, and we define criteria to identify which successions of events in the region would be perceived as a sequence. Note that the spatial clustering expected is a lower end compared to a fully uniform distribution of events. Then we perform the same exercise with <span class="hlt">rates</span> and b-values determined from the catalog including the CES. If the pre-2010 catalog was long (or rich) enough, then the computed "stationary" <span class="hlt">rates</span> calculated from it would include the CES declustered events (by construction, regardless of the physical meaning of or relationship between those events). In regions of low seismicity <span class="hlt">rate</span> (e.g., Canterbury before</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24014082','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24014082"><span>HIV positivity but not HPV/p16 status is associated with higher <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> in anal cancer.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Meyer, Joshua E; Panico, Vinicius J A; Marconato, Heloisa M F; Sherr, David L; Christos, Paul; Pirog, Edyta C</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a pathogenic factor of squamous cell carcinoma in various mucosal locations, including anal carcinoma (ACA). It is also known that patients positive for HIV are at high risk of ACA. The goal of this study was to examine clinical outcome in ACA in relation to HPV/p16 positivity, histologic tumor differentiation, and HIV status. Patients with oropharyngeal cancers that are positive for HPV and show overexpression of p16 as well as having non-keratinizing/basaloid histology have been reported to have better outcomes following chemoradiation (CRT). However, such relationships in ACA remain unknown. Forty-two patients with SCC of the anus treated with CRT between 1997 and 2009 were identified. The tumors were subclassified as either non-keratinizing (including basaloid) or keratinizing categories. HPV testing was performed using SPF10-PCR, and all cases were immunostained for p16. There were 23 men and 19 women; 43% of men and 11% of women were HIV-positive (p = 0.04). Fifty-five percent of patients had local disease (stages I and II) and 41% were stages III and IV, with 4% stage unknown. All tumors were positive for high-oncogenic risk HPVs, and all were positive with p16 immunostain. Sixty-four percent of tumors were non-keratinizing/basaloid and 36 % were keratinizing. The keratinizing tumors were more common in HIV-positive patients (67%), whereas non-keratinizing/basaloid tumors were more common in HIV-negative patients (77%) (p = 0.008). Thirty-one percent of patients had <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of disease, including 50% HIV-positive patients and 23% HIV-negative patients (p = 0.09). There was no difference in the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> between non-keratinizing and keratinizing tumor subtypes (p = 0.80). The 24-month <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>-free survival for the cohort was 66% (95% CI = 46%, 81%), with HIV-positive patients having worse <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>-free survival compared to HIV-negative patients (HR = 2.85, 95% CI = 0.95, 8.53; p = 0</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15326555','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15326555"><span>[Analysis of Foetal Heart <span class="hlt">Rate</span> Data using Complex Software: Comparison of <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> Plot of Foetal Heart <span class="hlt">Rate</span> with the Course of Pregnancy -].</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Jörn, H; Morgenstern, B; Wassenberg, B; Rath, W</p> <p>2004-08-01</p> <p>Is it useful to further analyse foetal heart <span class="hlt">rate</span> to improve the prediction of pregnancy complications? The analysis of the foetal heart <span class="hlt">rate</span> is usually based on the variability of the heart <span class="hlt">rate</span>, i. e. the more variable the heart <span class="hlt">rate</span> presents - except a decrease - the better the condition of the foetus is. The same concept is applied in our own analysis which differs only in the presentation of the data. We analysed 25 non-stress-tests from unselected third trimester pregnancies using sophisticated software. The <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> plot (RP) is able to rearrange data from foetal heart <span class="hlt">rate</span> monitoring in order to make the heart <span class="hlt">rate</span> variability visible. We developed criteria for a normal and an abnormal test result describing the structure of the diagram to predict an uneventful and a high-risk pregnancy, respectively. 11 out of 11 patients with uneventful course and outcome of pregnancy showed a coarse and blurred RP pattern. 12 out of 14 (86 %) patients developing either intrauterine growth retardation or preeclampsia and requiring caesarean section because of foetal heart <span class="hlt">rate</span> abnormalities showed a fine and clear RP pattern. Our preliminary results show that it makes sense to further evaluate foetal heart <span class="hlt">rate</span> variability in order to predict pregnancy complications. Computer programs including the algorithms needed (calculation of the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> plot) are not expensive and easy to handle. A widespread use of these programs represents the basis requirement for large controlled clinical trials.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1995/257/','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1995/257/"><span>Seismic Sources and <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">Rates</span> as Adopted by USGS Staff for the Production of the 1982 and 1990 Probabilistic Ground Motion Maps for Alaska and the Conterminous United States</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Hanson, Stanley L.; Perkins, David M.</p> <p>1995-01-01</p> <p>The construction of a probabilistic ground-motion hazard map for a region follows a sequence of analyses beginning with the selection of an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalog and ending with the mapping of calculated probabilistic ground-motion values (Hanson and others, 1992). An integral part of this process is the creation of sources used for the calculation of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> and ground motions. These sources consist of areas and lines that are representative of geologic or tectonic features and faults. After the design of the sources, it is necessary to arrange the coordinate points in a particular order compatible with the input format for the SEISRISK-III program (Bender and Perkins, 1987). Source zones are usually modeled as a point-rupture source. Where applicable, linear rupture sources are modeled with articulated lines, representing known faults, or a field of parallel lines, representing a generalized distribution of hypothetical faults. Based on the distribution of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> throughout the individual source zones (or a collection of several sources), <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> are computed for each of the sources, and a minimum and maximum magnitude is assigned. Over a period of time from 1978 to 1980 several conferences were held by the USGS to solicit information on regions of the United States for the purpose of creating source zones for computation of probabilistic ground motions (Thenhaus, 1983). As a result of these regional meetings and previous work in the Pacific Northwest, (Perkins and others, 1980), California continental shelf, (Thenhaus and others, 1980), and the Eastern outer continental shelf, (Perkins and others, 1979) a consensus set of source zones was agreed upon and subsequently used to produce a national ground motion hazard map for the United States (Algermissen and others, 1982). In this report and on the accompanying disk we provide a complete list of source areas and line sources as used for the 1982 and later 1990 seismic</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27475933','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27475933"><span>Long-term results and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> after spironolactone treatment in non-resolving central serous chorio-retinopathy (CSCR).</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Herold, Tina Rike; Rist, Kristina; Priglinger, Siegfried Georg; Ulbig, Michael Werner; Wolf, Armin</p> <p>2017-02-01</p> <p>To evaluate the long-term results of spironolactone in non-resolving central serous chorio-retinopathy (CSCR) and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> of CSCR. Interventional uncontrolled open-label prospective clinical trial of patients with non-resolving CSCR who were treated with spironolactone 50 mg daily (Spironolacton AL® 50 mg, ALIUD PHARMA) for up to 16 weeks. Follow-up visits were performed at 3, 6, 9, and 12 months. Retreatment criteria for <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> were: gain in sub-retinal fluid (SRF) of more than 25 % plus/or increase of central retinal thickness (CRT) of more than 50 μm plus visual symptoms compared to last visit. 12-month efficacy of upload treatment with spironolactone. Secondary outcome measure was the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> at 6, 9, and 12 months. Of the 21 study eyes treated, 71 % (n = 15) showed significant improvement or complete regression on OCT examination over 12 months. Nineteen percent of the patients (n = 4) showed a stable course from visit 1 to visit 12. The overall reduction of sub-retinal fluid from visit 1 (156 μm ± 131 SD) to visit 12 (53 μm ± 93 SD) was statistically significant (p = 0.003). The change of mean visual acuity (log MAR) from 0.25 (± 0.17 SD) at baseline to 0.17 (± 0.18 SD) at visit 12 was statistically significant, with p = 0.044. Our results confirm a positive effect of spironolactone in non-resolving CSCR in 71 % of cases. Evaluation of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> and retreatments showed good results in patients who responded to spironolactone primarily. A prospective randomized trial may provide better data about this non-invasive treatment.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26880644','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26880644"><span>Autism: Will vitamin D supplementation during pregnancy and early childhood reduce the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> of autism in newborn siblings?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Stubbs, G; Henley, K; Green, J</p> <p>2016-03-01</p> <p>Vitamin D deficiency is widespread in the world including the vulnerable group of pregnant women. Vitamin D deficiency during pregnancy is hypothesized to contribute to the cause of autism. Further, it is hypothesized that vitamin D supplementation during pregnancy and early childhood will reduce the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> of autism in newborn siblings. To investigate the hypothesis an open label prospective study was performed prescribing vitamin D during pregnancy to mothers of children with autism at a dose of 5000IU/day. The newborn siblings were at high risk for the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of autism. The newborn infants were also prescribed vitamin D, 1000IU/day to their third birthday. The newborn siblings were followed for three years and during that time, were assessed for autism on two separate occasions: at 18months and 36months of age. The results were compared to the reported <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> in siblings of autistic children in the literature. The final outcome was 1 out of 19 (5%) developed autism in contrast to the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> of approximately 20% in the literature. We did not have a control group, nor was there blinding. The results are promising, however, this is a preliminary study with very small numbers and was uncontrolled. Further study with larger numbers is indicated. The ethics of prescribing a low dosage of vitamin D such as 400IU D3/day to a control group of mothers in comparison to a large dose such as 5000IU D3/day are problematic in our opinion. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27475479','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27475479"><span>High-dose-<span class="hlt">rate</span> interstitial brachytherapy for the treatment of high-volume locally <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> endometrial carcinoma.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Huang, Kitty; D'Souza, David; Patil, Nikhilesh; Velker, Vikram; Leung, Eric; Stitt, Larry; Whiston, Frances; Sugimoto, Akira; McGee, Jacob; Prefontaine, Michel</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Limited therapeutic options are available for the treatment of locally <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> endometrial carcinoma. Our objective was to report an institutional experience using interstitial brachytherapy (IBT) to treat significant <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> endometrial carcinoma, including previously irradiated disease. Between December 2004 and September 2012, 40 patients with high-volume locally <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> endometrial cancer were treated by high-dose-<span class="hlt">rate</span> IBT (± external beam radiation therapy EBRT). Sixteen patients had prior radiotherapy: EBRT alone (n = 5), intracavitary brachytherapy alone (n = 3), or EBRT with intracavitary brachytherapy boost (n = 8). Actuarial outcome <span class="hlt">rates</span> were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank test. Median followup interval was 18 months. Median disease-free interval was 61 months. Actuarial local control, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival were 74% and 60%, 70% and 51%, and 83% and 72% at 12 and 24 months, respectively. p-Values for local control, progression-free survival, and overall survival between patient who had prior RT (n = 16) to no prior RT (n = 24) were p = 0.38, 0.32, and 0.90, respectively. Acute toxicities include Grade 1-2 pain (5%), genitourinary (7%), gastrointestinal (12%), soft tissue (5%), and dermatologic (12%). Four patients observed late Grade 3-4 toxicities, including rectal bleeding/fistula and soft tissue necrosis. High-dose-<span class="hlt">rate</span> IBT is an effective treatment for locally <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> endometrial carcinoma with an acceptable toxicity profile. Outcomes are similar between previously irradiated and nonirradiated patients. In women who have received prior radiotherapy and are often considered for palliative treatment, interstitial brachytherapy is a potentially curative option. Copyright © 2016 American Brachytherapy Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19222495','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19222495"><span>Coexistence of chronic lymphocytic thyroiditis is associated with lower <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kim, Eui Young; Kim, Won Gu; Kim, Won Bae; Kim, Tae Yong; Kim, Jung Min; Ryu, Jin-Sook; Hong, Suck Joon; Gong, Gyungyub; Shong, Young Kee</p> <p>2009-10-01</p> <p>The effect of coexistent chronic lymphocytic thyroiditis (CLT) on prognosis in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) patients remains controversial. We evaluated the influence of coexistent CLT on prognostic outcome and the association of coexistent CLT with clinicopathological parameters. A retrospective study with a median follow-up of 70 months. Patients with PTC who underwent total thyroidectomy followed by (131)I remnant ablation between 1995 and 2003 at Asan Medical Center, Seoul, Korea were enrolled. CLT was diagnosed histopathologically. Among 1441 patients, 214 (14.9%) had coexistent CLT. A greater female preponderance was noted in the patients with CLT compared with those without CLT (P < 0.01). Mean tumour size in the patients with CLT was smaller than that in patients without CLT (2.0 +/- 1.2 vs. 2.2 +/- 1.4 cm; P = 0.02). One hundred and fifty-one (12.3%) patients without CLT had <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>, whereas 14 (7.1%) patients with CLT had <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> during the follow-up period (P = 0.016). In patients with cervical lymph node metastases, those with coexistent CLT showed a significantly lower <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> than those without CLT (P = 0.012). However, this association was lost on multivariate analysis adjusting for other clinicopathological predictors for <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. In this study, CLT was commonly associated with PTC and was associated with smaller size of the primary tumour at presentation. CLT was also associated with a reduced risk of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> during follow-up, although this was not significant after adjustment for other prognostic factors.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24016611','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24016611"><span>Effect of intraoperative neuromonitoring on <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> laryngeal nerve palsy <span class="hlt">rates</span> after thyroid surgery--a meta-analysis.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Zheng, Shixing; Xu, Zhiwen; Wei, Yuanyuan; Zeng, Manli; He, Jinnian</p> <p>2013-08-01</p> <p>Though intraoperative nerve monitoring (IONM) during thyroid surgery has gained universal acceptance for localizing and identifying the <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> laryngeal nerve (RLN), its role in reducing the <span class="hlt">rate</span> of RLN injury remains controversial. In order to assess the effect of IONM during thyroid surgery, its value in reducing the incidence of RLN palsy was systematically evaluated. Studies were evaluated for inclusion in this analysis by researching PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and the references of included studies. The initial screening of article titles and abstracts was independently performed by five reviewers based on the research protocol criteria. Each article was then read in detail and discussed before inclusion in the meta-analysis. Data were independently extracted, including the level of evidence, number of at-risk nerves, allocation method, baseline equivalence between groups, definitions of transient and permanent vocal fold palsy, systematic application of electrodes, etc. The meta-analysis was then performed. Odds ratios were pooled using a random effects model. Five randomized clinical trials and 12 comparative trials evaluating 36,487 at-risk nerves were included. Statistically significant differences in terms of total <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> laryngeal nerve palsy (3.37% with intraoperative nerve monitoring [IONM] vs. 3.76% without IONM [OR: 0.74; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.59-0.92]) and transient <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> laryngeal nerve palsy (2.56% with IONM vs. 2.71% without IONM [OR: 0.80; 95% CI: 0.65-0.99]) were identified. The persistent incidence of <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> laryngeal nerve palsy was 0.78% for IONM versus 0.96% for nerve identification alone (OR: 0.80; 95% CI: 0.62-1.03). Based on this meta-analysis, statistically significant differences were determined in terms of the incidences of total and transient <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> laryngeal nerve palsy after using IONM versus <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> laryngeal nerve identification alone during thyroidectomy</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18022436','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18022436"><span>Laparoscopic unroofing of splenic cysts results in a high <span class="hlt">rate</span> of <span class="hlt">recurrences</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Schier, Felix; Waag, Karl-Ludwig; Ure, Benno</p> <p>2007-11-01</p> <p>Laparoscopic unroofing is described as an appropriate treatment modality of nonparasitic splenic cysts. However, we repeatedly encountered <span class="hlt">recurrences</span> with this technique. Because splenic cysts are rare, we analyzed the combined experience of 3 German pediatric surgical departments. Between 1995 and 2005, primary and secondary nonparasitic splenic cysts were unroofed laparoscopically in 14 children (aged 5-12 years; median, 8.5 years). In 3 patients, the inner surface was coagulated with the argon beamer. In most children, the cavity was surfaced with omentum. In addition, in 4 patients the omentum was sutured to the splenic parenchyma. No intraoperative complications occurred, and no inadvertent splenectomy or blood transfusions were necessary. However, in 9 children (64%) the cysts recurred at intervals ranging from 6 to 12 months (median, 12 months). Also, argon laser treatment of the surface resulted in <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. Laparoscopic unroofing of true splenic cysts alone proved inadequate in this series. Either removal of the inner layer or partial splenectomy appears to be necessary to prevent <span class="hlt">recurrences</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70022956','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70022956"><span>Inferring <span class="hlt">rate</span> and state friction parameters from a rupture model of the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu (Kobe) Japan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Guatteri, Mariagiovanna; Spudich, P.; Beroza, G.C.</p> <p>2001-01-01</p> <p>We consider the applicability of laboratory-derived <span class="hlt">rate</span>- and state-variable friction laws to the dynamic rupture of the 1995 Kobe <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. We analyze the shear stress and slip evolution of Ide and Takeo's [1997] dislocation model, fitting the inferred stress change time histories by calculating the dynamic load and the instantaneous friction at a series of points within the rupture area. For points exhibiting a fast-weakening behavior, the Dieterich-Ruina friction law, with values of dc = 0.01-0.05 m for critical slip, fits the stress change time series well. This range of dc is 10-20 times smaller than the slip distance over which the stress is released, Dc, which previous studies have equated with the slip-weakening distance. The limited resolution and low-pass character of the strong motion inversion degrades the resolution of the frictional parameters and suggests that the actual dc is less than this value. Stress time series at points characterized by a slow-weakening behavior are well fitted by the Dieterich-Ruina friction law with values of dc ??? 0.01-0.05 m. The apparent fracture energy Gc can be estimated from waveform inversions more stably than the other friction parameters. We obtain a Gc = 1.5??106 J m-2 for the 1995 Kobe <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, in agreement with estimates for previous <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. From this estimate and a plausible upper bound for the local rock strength we infer a lower bound for Dc of about 0.008 m. Copyright 2001 by the American Geophysical Union.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1910401S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1910401S"><span>Miocene to present deformation <span class="hlt">rates</span> in the Yakima Fold Province and implications for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazards in central Washington State, USA</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Staisch, Lydia; Sherrod, Brian; Kelsey, Harvey; Blakely, Richard; Möller, Andreas; Styron, Richard</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>, which lack syntectonic growth strata, we exploit 2-m LiDAR data and invert stream profiles to analytically solve for a linear solution to relative uplift <span class="hlt">rate</span>. From stream profile inversion, we see an increase in incision <span class="hlt">rates</span> in Pliocene time and suggest that this increased <span class="hlt">rate</span> is tectonically controlled. Our analyses indicate that deformation <span class="hlt">rates</span> along the Manastash and Umtanum Ridge anticlines are significantly higher than along the Saddle Mountains. We use our new estimates of slip <span class="hlt">rates</span> along individual anticlines to calculate the time required to accumulate enough strain energy for a large magnitude <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (M≥7) along faults within the YFP. Our results indicate that it takes between several hundred to several thousand years to accumulate sufficient strain energy for a M≥7 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, with the greatest hazard posed by the Umtanum Ridge anticline.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JGRB..120..290K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JGRB..120..290K"><span>Nanoseismicity and picoseismicity <span class="hlt">rate</span> changes from static stress triggering caused by a Mw 2.2 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in Mponeng gold mine, South Africa</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kozłowska, Maria; Orlecka-Sikora, Beata; Kwiatek, Grzegorz; Boettcher, Margaret S.; Dresen, Georg</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Static stress changes following large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are known to affect the <span class="hlt">rate</span> and distribution of aftershocks, yet this process has not been thoroughly investigated for nanoseismicity and picoseismicity at centimeter length scales. Here we utilize a unique data set of M ≥ -3.4 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> following a Mw 2.2 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in Mponeng gold mine, South Africa, that was recorded during a quiet interval in the mine to investigate if <span class="hlt">rate</span>- and state-based modeling is valid for shallow, mining-induced seismicity. We use Dieterich's (1994) <span class="hlt">rate</span>- and state-dependent formulation for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> productivity, which requires estimation of four parameters: (1) Coulomb stress changes due to the main shock, (2) the reference seismicity <span class="hlt">rate</span>, (3) frictional resistance parameter, and (4) the duration of aftershock relaxation time. Comparisons of the modeled spatiotemporal patterns of seismicity based on two different source models with the observed distribution show that while the spatial patterns match well, the <span class="hlt">rate</span> of modeled aftershocks is lower than the observed <span class="hlt">rate</span>. To test our model, we used three metrics of the goodness-of-fit evaluation. The null hypothesis, of no significant difference between modeled and observed seismicity <span class="hlt">rates</span>, was only rejected in the depth interval containing the main shock. Results show that mining-induced <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> may be followed by a stress relaxation expressed through aftershocks located on the rupture plane and in regions of positive Coulomb stress change. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the main features of the temporal and spatial distributions of very small, mining-induced <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> can be successfully determined using <span class="hlt">rate</span>- and state-based stress modeling.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29543959','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29543959"><span>Single-Stage Mastoid Obliteration in Cholesteatoma Surgery and <span class="hlt">Recurrent</span> and Residual Disease <span class="hlt">Rates</span>: A Systematic Review.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>van der Toom, Hylke F E; van der Schroeff, Marc P; Pauw, Robert J</p> <p>2018-05-01</p> <p>The ideal surgical treatment of cholesteatoma has been subject to discussion for years because both traditional surgical techniques (canal wall down [CWD] and canal wall up [CWU] tympanoplasty) have their own advantages and disadvantages. A more recently propagated surgical approach, to combine the CWD or CWU tympanoplasty technique with obliteration of the mastoid and epitympanum, is showing promising results. To systematically review the literature on <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> and residual cholesteatoma <span class="hlt">rates</span> after single-stage CWU and CWD tympanoplasty with mastoid obliteration. A systematic search of literature was performed to identify relevant publications in multiple electronic databases. The initial search was conducted in December 2016 and was updated in July 2017. Each study was reviewed by 2 independent reviewers on predetermined eligibility criteria. The methodological quality was determined using the methodological index for nonrandomized studies (MINORS) scale, and the relevance to the current topic was determined using a 4-criterion checklist. The searches identified a total of 336 potentially relevant publications; 190 articles were excluded based on title and abstract. The full-text articles of the remaining 146 citations were assessed for eligibility, resulting in 22 articles. After assessing these remaining articles for methodological quality and relevance to the current topic, another 8 studies were excluded, and a total of 13 studies (1534 patients) were included. Of the 1534 patients who underwent CWD or CWU tympanoplasty with mastoid obliteration, the <span class="hlt">rate</span> of <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> disease was 4.6%, and the <span class="hlt">rate</span> of residual disease was 5.4%. In CWU tympanoplasty with mastoid obliteration, these <span class="hlt">rates</span> were 0.28% and 4.2%, respectively and in CWD tympanoplasty with mastoid obliteration, 5.9% and 5.8%, respectively. We show the <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> and residual disease <span class="hlt">rates</span> after either CWU or CWD tympanoplasty with mastoid obliteration to be qualitatively similar to, if not better</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.7263G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.7263G"><span>Surface deformation associated with the 2013 Mw7.7 Balochistan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>: Geologic slip <span class="hlt">rates</span> may significantly underestimate strain release</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Gold, Ryan; Reitman, Nadine; Briggs, Richard; Barnhart, William; Hayes, Gavin</p> <p>2015-04-01</p> <p>The 24 September 2013 Mw7.7 Balochistan, Pakistan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ruptured a ~200 km-long stretch of the 60° ± 15° northwest-dipping Hoshab fault in southern Pakistan. The <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is notable because it produced the second-largest lateral surface displacement observed for a continental strike-slip <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Surface displacements and geodetic and teleseismic inversions indicate that peak slip occurred within the upper 0-3 km of the crust. To explore along-strike and fault-perpendicular surface deformation patterns, we remotely mapped the surface trace of the rupture and measured its surface deformation using high-resolution (0.5 m) pre- and post-event satellite imagery. Post-event images were collected 7-114 days following the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, so our analysis captures the sum of both the coseismic and post-seismic (e.g., after slip) deformation. We document peak left-lateral offset of ~15 m using 289 near-field (±10 m from fault) laterally offset piercing points, such as streams, terrace risers, and roads. We characterize off-fault deformation by measuring the medium- (±200 m from fault) and far-field (±10 km from fault) displacement using manual (242 measurements) and automated image cross-correlation methods. Off-fault peak lateral displacement values (medium- and far-field) are ~16 m and commonly exceed the on-fault displacement magnitudes. Our observations suggest that coseismic surface displacement typically increases with distance away from the surface trace of the fault; however, the majority of surface displacement is within 100 m of the primary fault trace and is most localized on sections of the rupture exhibiting narrow (<5 m) zones of observable surface deformation. Furthermore, the near-field displacement measurements account for, on average, only 73% of the total coseismic displacement field and the pattern is highly heterogeneous. This analysis highlights the importance of identifying paleoseismic field study sites (e.g. trenches) that span fault</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.G14A..06H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.G14A..06H"><span>Very shallow source of the October 2010 Mentawai tsunami <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> from tsunami field data and high-<span class="hlt">rate</span> GPS</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hill, E. M.; Qiu, Q.; Borrero, J. C.; Huang, Z.; Banerjee, P.; Elosegui, P.; Fritz, H. M.; Macpherson, K. A.; Li, L.; Sieh, K. E.</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>"Tsunami <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>," which produce very large tsunamis compared to those expected from their magnitude, have long puzzled geoscientists, in part because only a handful have occurred within the time of modern instrumentation. The Mw 7.8 Mentawai <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> of 25 October 2010, which occurred seaward of the southern Mentawai islands of Sumatra, was such an event. This <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> triggered a very large tsunami, causing substantial damage and 509 casualties. Detailed field surveys we conducted immediately after the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> reveal maximum runup in excess of 16 m. The Sumatra GPS Array (SuGAr) recorded beautiful 1-sec data for this event at sites on the nearby islands, making this the first tsunami <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> to be recorded by a dense, high-<span class="hlt">rate</span>, and proximal GPS network, and giving us a unique opportunity to study these rare events from a new perspective. We estimate a maximum horizontal coseismic GPS displacement of 22 cm, at a site ~50 km from the epicenter. Vertical displacements show subsidence of the islands, but are on the order of only a few cm. Comparison of coseismic offsets from 1-sec and 24-hr GPS solutions indicates that rapid afterslip following the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> amounts to ~30% of the displacement estimated by the 24-hr solutions. The coseismic displacements are smaller than expected, and an unconstrained inversion of the GPS displacements indicates maximum fault slip of ~90 cm. Slip of this magnitude will produce maximum seafloor uplift of <15 cm, which is clearly not enough to produce tsunami runup of 16 m. However, investigation of the model resolution from GPS indicates that we are limited in our ability to resolve slip very close to the trench. We therefore deduce that to obtain the adequate level of slip and seafloor uplift to trigger the tsunami, the rupture must have occurred outside the resolution of the GPS network, i.e., at very shallow depths close to the trench. We therefore place prior slip constraints on the GPS inversion, based on</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27720162','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27720162"><span>Is subclinical hypothyroidism associated with lower live birth <span class="hlt">rates</span> in women who have experienced unexplained <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> miscarriage?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>van Dijk, Myrthe M; Vissenberg, Rosa; Bisschop, Peter H; Dawood, Feroza; van Wely, Madelon; Goddijn, Mariëtte; Farquharson, Roy G</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Thyroid disorders have been associated with <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> miscarriage. Little evidence is available on the influence of subclinical hypothyroidism on live birth <span class="hlt">rates</span>. In this cohort study, women who had experienced miscarriage and subclinical hypothyroidism (defined as thyroid-stimulating hormone >97.5th percentile mU/l with a normal thyroxine level) were investigated; the control group included women who had experienced <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> miscarriage and normal thyroid function. Multivariable logistic regression was used to investigate the association of subclinical hypothyroidism. Data were available for 848 women; 20 (2.4%) had subclinical hypothyroidism; 818 women (96%) had euthyroidism; and 10 (1.2%) had overt hypothyroidism. The live birth <span class="hlt">rate</span> was 45% in women with subclinical hypothyroidism and 52% in euthyroid women (OR 0.69, 95% CI 0.28 to 1.71). The ongoing pregnancy <span class="hlt">rate</span> was 65% versus 69% (OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.32 to 2.10) and the miscarriage <span class="hlt">rate</span> was 35% versus 28% (OR 1.43, 95% CI 0.56 to 3.68), respectively. No differences were found when thyroid stimulating hormone 2.5 mU/l was used as cut-off level to define subclinical hypothyroidism. In women with unexplained miscarriage, no differences were found in live birth, ongoing pregnancy and miscarriage <span class="hlt">rates</span> between women with subclinical hypothyroidism and euthyroid women. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70025930','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70025930"><span>The Mw 7.7 Bhuj <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>: Global lessons for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard in intra-plate regions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Schweig, E.; Gomberg, J.; Petersen, M.; Ellis, M.; Bodin, P.; Mayrose, L.; Rastogi, B.K.</p> <p>2003-01-01</p> <p>The Mw 7.7 Bhuj <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurred in the Kachchh District of the State of Gujarat, India on 26 January 2001, and was one of the most damaging intraplate <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> ever recorded. This <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is in many ways similar to the three great New Madrid <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> that occurred in the central United States in 1811-1812, An Indo-US team is studying the similarities and differences of these sequences in order to learn lessons for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard in intraplate regions. Herein we present some preliminary conclusions from that study. Both the Kutch and New Madrid regions have rift type geotectonic setting. In both regions the strain <span class="hlt">rates</span> are of the order of 10-9/yr and attenuation of seismic waves as inferred from observations of intensity and liquefaction are low. These strain <span class="hlt">rates</span> predict <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> intervals for Bhuj or New Madrid sized <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> of several thousand years or more. In contrast, intervals estimated from paleoseismic studies and from other independent data are significantly shorter, probably hundreds of years. All these observations together may suggest that <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> relax high ambient stresses that are locally concentrated by rheologic heterogeneities, rather than loading by plate-tectonic forces. The latter model generally underlies basic assumptions made in <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard assessment, that the long-term average <span class="hlt">rate</span> of energy released by <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> is determined by the tectonic loading <span class="hlt">rate</span>, which thus implies an inherent average periodicity of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence. Interpreting the observations in terms of the former model therefore may require re-examining the basic assumptions of hazard assessment.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li class="active"><span>13</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_13 --> <div id="page_14" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li class="active"><span>14</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="261"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27085125','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27085125"><span>Drug treatment <span class="hlt">rates</span> with beta-blockers and ACE-inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers and <span class="hlt">recurrences</span> in takotsubo cardiomyopathy: A meta-regression analysis.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Brunetti, Natale Daniele; Santoro, Francesco; De Gennaro, Luisa; Correale, Michele; Gaglione, Antonio; Di Biase, Matteo</p> <p>2016-07-01</p> <p>In a recent paper Singh et al. analyzed the effect of drug treatment on <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of takotsubo cardiomyopathy (TTC) in a comprehensive meta-analysis. The study found that <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> were independent of clinic utilization of BB prescription, but inversely correlated with ACEi/ARB prescription: authors therefore conclude that ACEi/ARB rather than BB may reduce risk of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. We aimed to re-analyze data reported in the study, now weighted for populations' size, in a meta-regression analysis. After multiple meta-regression analysis, we found a significant regression between <span class="hlt">rates</span> of prescription of ACEi and <span class="hlt">rates</span> of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of TTC; regression was not statistically significant for BBs. On the bases of our re-analysis, we confirm that <span class="hlt">rates</span> of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of TTC are lower in populations of patients with higher <span class="hlt">rates</span> of treatment with ACEi/ARB. That could not necessarily imply that ACEi may prevent <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of TTC, but barely that, for example, <span class="hlt">rates</span> of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> are lower in cohorts more compliant with therapy or more prescribed with ACEi because more carefully followed. Randomized prospective studies are surely warranted. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20120008395','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20120008395"><span>The White Dwarf Mass and the Accretion <span class="hlt">Rate</span> of <span class="hlt">Recurrent</span> Novae: An X-ray Perspective</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Mukai, Koji; Sokoloski, Jennifer L.; Nelson, Thomas; Luna, Gerardo J. M.</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>We present recent results of quiescent X-ray observations of <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> novae (RNe) and related objects. Several RNe are luminous hard X-ray sources in quiescence, consistent with accretion onto a near Chandrasekhar mass white dwarf. Detection of similar hard X-ray emissions in old novae and other cataclysmic variables may lead to identification of additional RN candidates. On the other hand, other RNe are found to be comparatively hard X-ray faint. We present several scenarios that may explain this dichotomy, which should be explored further.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70030235','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70030235"><span>12 May 2008 M = 7.9 Wenchuan, China, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> calculated to increase failure stress and seismicity <span class="hlt">rate</span> on three major fault systems</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Toda, S.; Lin, J.; Meghraoui, M.; Stein, R.S.</p> <p>2008-01-01</p> <p>The Wenchuan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> on the Longmen Shan fault zone devastated cities of Sichuan, claiming at least 69,000 lives. We calculate that the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> also brought the Xianshuihe, Kunlun and Min Jiang faults 150-400 km from the mainshock rupture in the eastern Tibetan Plateau 0.2-0.5 bars closer to Coulomb failure. Because some portions of these stressed faults have not ruptured in more than a century, the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> could trigger or hasten additional M > 7 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, potentially subjecting regions from Kangding to Daofu and Maqin to Rangtag to strong shaking. We use the calculated stress changes and the observed background seismicity to forecast the <span class="hlt">rate</span> and distribution of damaging shocks. The <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> probability in the region is estimated to be 57-71% for M ??? 6 shocks during the next decade, and 8-12% for M ??? 7 shocks. These are up to twice the probabilities for the decade before the Wenchuan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> struck. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.S21D..03H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.S21D..03H"><span>Numerical Investigation of <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Nucleation on a Laboratory-Scale Heterogeneous Fault with <span class="hlt">Rate</span>-and-State Friction</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Higgins, N.; Lapusta, N.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>Many large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on natural faults are preceded by smaller events, often termed foreshocks, that occur close in time and space to the larger event that follows. Understanding the origin of such events is important for understanding <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> physics. Unique laboratory experiments of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> nucleation in a meter-scale slab of granite (McLaskey and Kilgore, 2013; McLaskey et al., 2014) demonstrate that sample-scale nucleation processes are also accompanied by much smaller seismic events. One potential explanation for these foreshocks is that they occur on small asperities - or bumps - on the fault interface, which may also be the locations of smaller critical nucleation size. We explore this possibility through 3D numerical simulations of a heterogeneous 2D fault embedded in a homogeneous elastic half-space, in an attempt to qualitatively reproduce the laboratory observations of foreshocks. In our model, the simulated fault interface is governed by <span class="hlt">rate</span>-and-state friction with laboratory-relevant frictional properties, fault loading, and fault size. To create favorable locations for foreshocks, the fault surface heterogeneity is represented as patches of increased normal stress, decreased characteristic slip distance L, or both. Our simulation results indicate that one can create a <span class="hlt">rate</span>-and-state model of the experimental observations. Models with a combination of higher normal stress and lower L at the patches are closest to matching the laboratory observations of foreshocks in moment magnitude, source size, and stress drop. In particular, we find that, when the local compression is increased, foreshocks can occur on patches that are smaller than theoretical critical nucleation size estimates. The additional inclusion of lower L for these patches helps to keep stress drops within the range observed in experiments, and is compatible with the asperity model of foreshock sources, since one would expect more compressed spots to be smoother (and hence have</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29128183','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29128183"><span>Does intraoperative neuromonitoring of <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> nerves have an impact on the postoperative palsy <span class="hlt">rate</span>? Results of a prospective multicenter study.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Mirallié, Éric; Caillard, Cécile; Pattou, François; Brunaud, Laurent; Hamy, Antoine; Dahan, Marcel; Prades, Michel; Mathonnet, Muriel; Landecy, Gérard; Dernis, Henri-Pierre; Lifante, Jean-Christophe; Sebag, Frederic; Jegoux, Franck; Babin, Emmanuel; Bizon, Alain; Espitalier, Florent; Durand-Zaleski, Isabelle; Volteau, Christelle; Blanchard, Claire</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>The impact of intraoperative neuromonitoring on <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> laryngeal nerve palsy remains debated. Our aim was to evaluate the potential protective effect of intraoperative neuromonitoring on <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> laryngeal nerve during total thyroidectomy. This was a prospective, multicenter French national study. The use of intraoperative neuromonitoring was left at the surgeons' choice. Postoperative laryngoscopy was performed systematically at day 1 to 2 after operation and at 6 months in case of postoperative <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> laryngeal nerve palsy. Univariate and multivariate analyses and propensity score (sensitivity analysis) were performed to compare <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> laryngeal nerve palsy <span class="hlt">rates</span> between patients operated with or without intraoperative neuromonitoring. Among 1,328 patients included (females 79.9%, median age 51.2 years, median body mass index 25.6 kg/m 2 ), 807 (60.8%) underwent intraoperative neuromonitoring. Postoperative abnormal vocal cord mobility was diagnosed in 131 patients (9.92%), including 69 (8.6%) and 62 (12.1%) in the intraoperative neuromonitoring and nonintraoperative neuromonitoring groups, respectively. Intraoperative neuromonitoring was associated with a lesser <span class="hlt">rate</span> of <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> laryngeal nerve palsy in univariate analysis (odds ratio = 0.68, 95% confidence interval, 0.47; 0.98, P = .04) but not in multivariate analysis (oddsratio = 0.74, 95% confidence interval, 0.47; 1.17, P = .19), or when using a propensity score (odds ratio = 0.76, 95% confidence interval, 0.53; 1.07, P = .11). There was no difference in the <span class="hlt">rates</span> of definitive <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> laryngeal nerve palsy (0.8% and 1.3% in intraoperative neuromonitoring and non-intraoperative neuromonitoring groups respectively, P = .39). The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of intraoperative neuromonitoring for detecting abnormal postoperative vocal cord mobility were 29%, 98%, 61%, and 94%, respectively. The use of intraoperative</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22458646-patterns-recurrence-after-low-dose-rate-prostate-brachytherapy-population-based-study-consecutive-low-intermediate-risk-patients','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22458646-patterns-recurrence-after-low-dose-rate-prostate-brachytherapy-population-based-study-consecutive-low-intermediate-risk-patients"><span>Patterns of <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> After Low-Dose-<span class="hlt">Rate</span> Prostate Brachytherapy: A Population-Based Study of 2223 Consecutive Low- and Intermediate-Risk Patients</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Lo, Andrea C.; Morris, W. James, E-mail: JMorris@bccancer.bc.ca; Pickles, Tom</p> <p></p> <p>Objectives: This study examined patterns of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> after low–dose-<span class="hlt">rate</span> prostate brachytherapy (LDR-PB), estimated local <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> and compared that <span class="hlt">rate</span> to the estimated local <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> after radical prostatectomy (RP). Methods and Materials: A prospective database was maintained with clinical, dosimetric, and outcome data for all LDR-PB implantation procedures performed at our institution. From 1998 to 2008, 2223 patients with prostate cancer received LDR-PB without supplemental external beam radiation therapy. Patients who developed Phoenix-defined biochemical failure were reviewed for sites of relapse and investigations completed. Results: At a median follow-up of 5 years, 108 of 2223 patients (4.8%) developed biochemical relapse.more » In 1 additional patient, local relapse was found on transurethral prostate resection, but his prostate-specific antigen concentration was well short of triggering Phoenix-defined failure. Of the 109 patients with disease relapse, 18 of 2223 (0.8%) had a proven local <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>, and 30 of 2223 (1.3%) had a proven distant <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. The remaining 61 of 2223 patients (2.7%) had unidentified sites of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>; of these, 57 patients (93%) had digital rectal examinations (DREs), 18 (30%) had post-treatment biopsies, 45 (74%) had bone scans, and 34 (56%) had computed tomography imaging of the abdomen and pelvis. If every biochemical failure were local, the local <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> would be as high as 4.9%; however, by excluding those with proven distant failure and those with both a negative DRE and biopsy, we estimate that the local <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> is 2.7% or less. Conclusions: In the context of limitations of the study design, our population-based analysis indicates that the local <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> after LDR-PB is as low or lower than that after RP in our jurisdiction.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70189611','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70189611"><span><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> geology of the Bulnay Fault (Mongolia)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Rizza, Magali; Ritz, Jean-Franciois; Prentice, Carol S.; Vassallo, Ricardo; Braucher, Regis; Larroque, Christophe; Arzhannikova, A.; Arzhanikov, S.; Mahan, Shannon; Massault, M.; Michelot, J-L.; Todbileg, M.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>The Bulnay <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> of July 23, 1905 (Mw 8.3-8.5), in north-central Mongolia, is one of the world's largest recorded intracontinental <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and one of four great <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> that occurred in the region during the 20th century. The 375-km-long surface rupture of the left-lateral, strike-slip, N095°E trending Bulnay Fault associated with this <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is remarkable for its pronounced expression across the landscape and for the size of features produced by previous <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Our field observations suggest that in many areas the width and geometry of the rupture zone is the result of repeated <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>; however, in those areas where it is possible to determine that the geomorphic features are the result of the 1905 surface rupture alone, the size of the features produced by this single <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> are singular in comparison to most other historical strike-slip surface ruptures worldwide. Along the 80 km stretch, between 97.18°E and 98.33°E, the fault zone is characterized by several meters width and the mean left-lateral 1905 offset is 8.9 ± 0.6 m with two measured cumulative offsets that are twice the 1905 slip. These observations suggest that the displacement produced during the penultimate event was similar to the 1905 slip. Morphotectonic analyses carried out at three sites along the eastern part of the Bulnay fault, allow us to estimate a mean horizontal slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> of 3.1 ± 1.7 mm/yr over the Late Pleistocene-Holocene period. In parallel, paleoseismological investigations show evidence for two <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> prior to the 1905 event with <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> intervals of ~2700-4000 years.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70177051','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70177051"><span>Dense lower crust elevates long-term <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> in the New Madrid seismic zone</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Levandowski, William Brower; Boyd, Oliver; Ramirez-Guzman, Leonardo</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Knowledge of the local state of stress is critical in appraising intraplate seismic hazard. Inverting <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> moment tensors, we demonstrate that principal stress directions in the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) differ significantly from those in the surrounding region. Faults in the NMSZ that are incompatible with slip in the regional stress field are favorably oriented relative to local stress. We jointly analyze seismic velocity, gravity, and topography to develop a 3-D crustal and upper mantle density model, revealing uniquely dense lower crust beneath the NMSZ. Finite element simulations then estimate the stress tensor due to gravitational body forces, which sums with regional stress. The anomalous lower crust both elevates gravity-derived stress at seismogenic depths in the NMSZ and rotates it to interfere more constructively with far-field stress, producing a regionally maximal deviatoric stress coincident with the highest concentration of modern seismicity. Moreover, predicted principal stress directions mirror variations (observed independently in moment tensors) at the NMSZ and across the region.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5617512','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5617512"><span>Colorectal adenoma <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> among post-polypectomy patients in the placebo-controlled groups of randomized clinical trials: a meta-analysis</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Shi, Xin; Yang, Zhiping; Wu, Qiong; Fan, Daiming</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Background Evidence regarding the benefit of therapy to prevent the post-polypectomy <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of colorectal adenoma is limited. Endoscopic <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> is the main outcome according to an evaluation of trials involving <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> prevention. Aim To estimate the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> of post-polypectomy colorectal adenoma in placebo-controlled arms of randomized clinical trials and to identify the prognostic factors influencing these <span class="hlt">rates</span>. Methods We combined data from all randomized controlled trials evaluating therapies for colorectal adenoma using placebo from 1988 to 2016. The data were combined in a random-effects model. Primary outcomes were endoscopic adenoma and advanced adenoma <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of colorectal adenoma. Results The pooled estimates of the adenoma <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> were 37% (95% confidence interval [CI], 33%-41%; range, 33%-52%) at 1 year, 47% (95% CI, 41%-54%; range, 46%-51%) at 2 years, 41% (95% CI, 33%-48%; range, 20%-61%) at 3 years, 48% (95% CI, 38%-57%; range, 37%-53%) at 4 years, and 60% (95% CI, 52%-68%; range, 48%-68%) at 5 years. The pooled estimates of the advanced adenoma <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> were 10% (95% CI, 6%-15%; range, 7%-13%) at 1 year, 12% (95% CI, 8%-16%; range, 3%-19%) at 3 years, 14% (95% CI, 10%-18%; range, 13%-16%) at 4 years, and 14% (95% CI, 10%-19%; range, 9%-21%) at 5 years. Significant heterogeneity among the randomized clinical trials (P < 0.001) was observed for each <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span>. Conclusions This meta-analysis confirms the heterogeneity of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> among post-polypectomy colorectal adenoma patients who received placebo. No single design variable was identified that might explain the heterogeneity. PMID:28977952</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28285056','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28285056"><span>Unilateral Salpingectomy and Methotrexate Are Associated With a Similar <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">Rate</span> of Ectopic Pregnancy in Patients Undergoing In Vitro Fertilization.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Irani, Mohamad; Robles, Alex; Gunnala, Vinay; Spandorfer, Steven D</p> <p></p> <p>To determine whether different treatment approaches of ectopic pregnancy (EP), particularly unilateral salpingectomy and methotrexate, affect its <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> in patients undergoing in vitro fertilization (IVF). A retrospective cohort study (Canadian Task Force classification II-2). An academic medical center. Patients with a history of a previous EP who achieved pregnancy after IVF cycles between January 2004 and August 2015 were included. The <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> of EP was compared between patients who underwent different treatment approaches for a previous EP. IVF. A total of 594 patients were included. Seventeen patients had a <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of EP (2.9%). Patients with a history of ≥2 EPs were associated with a significantly higher <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> of EP than those with 1 previous EP (8.5% vs. 1.8%; p = .01; odds ratio [OR] = 2.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-4.4). Patients who underwent unilateral salpingectomy (n = 245) had a comparable <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> of EP after IVF with those who received methotrexate (n = 283) (3.6% vs. 2.8%; p = .5; OR = 1.3; 95% CI, 0.4-3.4). This OR remained unchanged after adjusting for patient's age, number of previous EPs, number of transferred embryos, and peak estradiol level during stimulation (adjusted OR = 1.4; 95% CI, 0.5-3.8). None of the patients who underwent bilateral salpingectomy (n = 45) or salpingostomy (n = 21) had a <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of EP after IVF. The <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> of EP significantly correlates with the number of previous EPs. Treatment of EP with methotrexate has a comparable <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> of EP after IVF with unilateral salpingectomy. Therefore, the risk of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> should not be a reason to favor salpingectomy over methotrexate in this population. Copyright © 2017 AAGL. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFM.G34A..04D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFM.G34A..04D"><span><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Clustering in Noisy Viscoelastic Systems</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dicaprio, C. J.; Simons, M.; Williams, C. A.; Kenner, S. J.</p> <p>2006-12-01</p> <p>Geologic studies show evidence for temporal clustering of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on certain fault systems. Since post- seismic deformation may result in a variable loading <span class="hlt">rate</span> on a fault throughout the inter-seismic period, it is reasonable to expect that the rheology of the non-seismogenic lower crust and mantle lithosphere may play a role in controlling <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> times. Previously, the role of rheology of the lithosphere on the seismic cycle had been studied with a one-dimensional spring-dashpot-slider model (Kenner and Simons [2005]). In this study we use the finite element code PyLith to construct a two-dimensional continuum model a strike-slip fault in an elastic medium overlying one or more linear Maxwell viscoelastic layers loaded in the far field by a constant velocity boundary condition. Taking advantage of the linear properties of the model, we use the finite element solution to one <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> as a spatio-temporal Green's function. Multiple Green's function solutions, scaled by the size of each <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, are then summed to form an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequence. When the shear stress on the fault reaches a predefined yield stress it is allowed to slip, relieving all accumulated shear stress. Random variation in the fault yield stress from one <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> to the next results in a temporally clustered <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequence. The amount of clustering depends on a non-dimensional number, W, called the Wallace number. For models with one viscoelastic layer, W is equal to the standard deviation of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> stress drop divided by the viscosity times the tectonic loading <span class="hlt">rate</span>. This definition of W is modified from the original one used in Kenner and Simons [2005] by using the standard deviation of the stress drop instead of the mean stress drop. We also use a new, more appropriate, metric to measure the amount of temporal clustering of the system. W is the ratio of the viscoelastic relaxation <span class="hlt">rate</span> of the system to the tectonic loading <span class="hlt">rate</span> of the system. For values of</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JGRB..120..326C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JGRB..120..326C"><span>Synthetic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalogs simulating seismic activity in the Corinth Gulf, Greece, fault system</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Console, Rodolfo; Carluccio, Roberto; Papadimitriou, Eleftheria; Karakostas, Vassilis</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>The characteristic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hypothesis is the basis of time-dependent modeling of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> on major faults. However, the characteristic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hypothesis is not strongly supported by observational data. Few fault segments have long historical or paleoseismic records of individually dated ruptures, and when data and parameter uncertainties are allowed for, the form of the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> distribution is difficult to establish. This is the case, for instance, of the Corinth Gulf Fault System (CGFS), for which documents about strong <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> exist for at least 2000 years, although they can be considered complete for M ≥ 6.0 only for the latest 300 years, during which only few characteristic <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are reported for individual fault segments. The use of a physics-based <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> simulator has allowed the production of catalogs lasting 100,000 years and containing more than 500,000 events of magnitudes ≥ 4.0. The main features of our simulation algorithm are (1) an average slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> released by <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> for every single segment in the investigated fault system, (2) heuristic procedures for rupture growth and stop, leading to a self-organized <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> magnitude distribution, (3) the interaction between <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sources, and (4) the effect of minor <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in redistributing stress. The application of our simulation algorithm to the CGFS has shown realistic features in time, space, and magnitude behavior of the seismicity. These features include long-term periodicity of strong <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, short-term clustering of both strong and smaller events, and a realistic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> magnitude distribution departing from the Gutenberg-Richter distribution in the higher-magnitude range.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.S41C0781M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.S41C0781M"><span><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> sequence simulations of a fault in a viscoelastic material with a spectral boundary integral equation method: The effect of interseismic stress relaxation on a behavior of a <span class="hlt">rate</span>-weakening patch</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Miyake, Y.; Noda, H.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> sequences involve many processes in a wide range of time scales, from quasistatic loading to dynamic rupture. At a depth of brittle-plastic transitional and deeper, rock behaves as a viscous fluid in a long timescale, but as an elastic material in a short timescale. Viscoelastic stress relaxation may be important in the interseismic periods at the depth, near the deeper limit of the seismogenic layer or the region of slow slip events (SSEs) [Namiki et al., 2014 and references therein]. In the present study, we implemented the viscoelastic effect (Maxwell material) in fully-dynamic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequence simulations using a spectral boundary integral equation method (SBIEM) [e.g., Lapusta et al., 2000]. SBIEM is efficient in calculation of convolutional terms for dynamic stress transfer, and the problem size is limited by the amount of memory available. Linear viscoelasticity could be implemented by convolution of slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> history and Green's function, but this method requires additional memory and thus not suitable for the implementation to the present code. Instead, we integrated the evolution of "effective slip" distribution, which gives static stress distribution when convolved with static elastic Green's function. This method works only for simple viscoelastic property distributions, but such models are suitable for numerical experiments aiming basic understanding of the system behavior because of the virtue of SBIEM, the ability of fine on-fault spatial resolution and efficient computation utilizing the fast Fourier transformation. In the present study, we examined the effect of viscoelasticity on <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequences of a fault with a <span class="hlt">rate</span>-weakening patch. A series of simulations with various relaxation time tc revealed that as decreasing tc, <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> intervals of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> increases and seismicity ultimately disappears. As long as studied, this transition to aseismic behavior is NOT associated with SSEs. In a case where the <span class="hlt">rate</span>-weakening patch</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.S31A2487W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.S31A2487W"><span>Distribution and Characteristics of Repeating <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> in Northern California</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Waldhauser, F.; Schaff, D. P.; Zechar, J. D.; Shaw, B. E.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p> show burst-like behavior with mean <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> times smaller than one month. 5% of the RES have mean <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> times greater than one year and include more than 10 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> in the 50 most periodic sequences (CV<0.2) do not appear to be predictable by either time- or slip-predictable models, consistent with previous findings. We demonstrate that changes in <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> intervals of repeating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> can be routinely monitored. This is especially important for sequences with CV~0, as they may indicate changes in the loading <span class="hlt">rate</span>. We also present results from retrospective forecast experiments based on near-real time hazard functions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16.1569J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16.1569J"><span>Identified EM <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Precursors</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Jones, Kenneth, II; Saxton, Patrick</p> <p>2014-05-01</p> <p> <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>, duration, and frequency response. At the Southern California field sites, one loop antenna was positioned for omni-directional reception and also detected a strong First Schumann Resonance; however, additional Schumann Resonances were absent. At the Timpson, TX field sites, loop antennae were positioned for directional reception, due to <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-induced, hydraulic fracturing activity currently conducted by the oil and gas industry. Two strong signals, one moderately strong signal, and approximately 6-8 weaker signals were detected in the immediate vicinity. The three stronger signals were mapped by a biangulation technique, followed by a triangulation technique for confirmation. This was the first antenna mapping technique ever performed for determining possible <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> epicenters. Six and a half months later, Timpson experienced two M4 (M4.1 and M4.3) <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on September 2, 2013 followed by a M2.4 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> three days later, all occurring at a depth of five kilometers. The Timpson <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> activity now has a cyclical <span class="hlt">rate</span> and a forecast was given to the proper authorities. As a result, the Southern California and Timpson, TX field results led to an improved design and construction of a third prototype antenna. With a loop antenna array, a viable communication system, and continuous monitoring, a full fracture cycle can be established and observed in real-time. In addition, field data could be reviewed quickly for assessment and lead to a much more improved <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> forecasting capability. The EM precursors determined by this method appear to surpass all prior precursor claims, and the general public will finally receive long overdue forecasting.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25338317','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25338317"><span>Changes in suicide <span class="hlt">rates</span> in disaster-stricken areas following the Great East Japan <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> and their effect on economic factors: an ecological study.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Orui, Masatsugu; Harada, Shuichiro; Hayashi, Mizuho</p> <p>2014-11-01</p> <p>Devastating disasters may increase suicide <span class="hlt">rates</span> due to mental distress. Previous domestic studies have reported decreased suicide <span class="hlt">rates</span> among men following disasters. Few reports are available regarding factors associated with disasters, making it difficult to discuss how these events affect suicide <span class="hlt">rates</span>. This study aimed to observe changes in suicide <span class="hlt">rates</span> in disaster-stricken and neighboring areas following the Great East Japan <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span>, and examine associations between suicide <span class="hlt">rates</span> and economic factors. Monthly suicide <span class="hlt">rates</span> were observed from March 2009 to February 2013, during which time the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurred on March, 2011. Data were included from disaster-stricken (Iwate, Miyagi, and Fukushima Prefectures) and neighboring (control: Aomori, Akita, and Yamagata Prefectures) areas. The association between changes in suicide <span class="hlt">rates</span> and economic variables was evaluated based on the number of bankruptcy cases and ratio of effective job offers. In disaster-stricken areas, post-disaster male suicide <span class="hlt">rates</span> decreased during the 24 months following the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. This trend differed relative to control areas. Female suicide <span class="hlt">rates</span> increased during the first seven months. Multiple regression analysis showed that bankruptcy cases (β = 0.386, p = 0.038) and ratio of effective job offers (β = -0.445, p = 0.018) were only significantly associated with male post-disaster suicide <span class="hlt">rates</span> in control areas. Post-disaster suicide <span class="hlt">rates</span> differed by gender following the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Our findings suggest that considering gender differences might be important for developing future post-disaster suicide prevention measures. This ecological study revealed that increasing effective job offers and decreasing bankruptcy cases can affect protectively male suicide <span class="hlt">rates</span> in control areas.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24217937','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24217937"><span>Long-term remission and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> after first and second transsphenoidal surgery for Cushing's disease: care reality in the Munich Metropolitan Region.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Dimopoulou, C; Schopohl, J; Rachinger, W; Buchfelder, M; Honegger, J; Reincke, M; Stalla, G K</p> <p>2014-02-01</p> <p>Transsphenoidal surgery (TSS) presents the treatment of choice for Cushing's disease (CD). Remission and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> vary dependent on tumor size, extension, adenoma visibility on magnetic resonance imaging, and neurosurgical expertise. Other than published from single-surgeon neurosurgical series so far, we have aimed to describe long-term remission and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> of CD in a series incorporating different neurosurgeons, trying to reflect care reality in the Munich Metropolitan Region, which is accommodated by three tertiary university and multiple, smaller neurosurgical centers. We conducted a retrospective analysis of 120 patients who underwent first and 36 patients who underwent second TSS as treatment for CD between 1990 and 2012. Patients were divided into three groups according to remission status. Potential risk factors for <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>, pituitary function, and strategy in persistent disease were assessed. THREE OUTCOME GROUPS WERE IDENTIFIED ACCORDING TO REMISSION STATUS AFTER FIRST TSS (MEAN FOLLOW-UP 79 MONTHS): remission, 71% (85/120), disease persistence, 29% (35/120), and disease <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>, 34% (29/85) (mean time to <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> 54 months). After second TSS (n=36, mean follow-up 62 months), we documented remission in 42% (15/36), disease persistence in 58% (21/36), and disease <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> in 40% (6/15) (mean time to <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> 42 months). Postoperative hypocortisolism after first, though not after second, TSS was associated with a lower risk of suffering disease <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> (risk=0.72; 95% CI 0.60-0.88; exact significance (two-sided) P=0.035). Our study shows higher <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> of CD after first TSS than previously reported. Second TSS leads an additional 8% of the patients to long-term CD remission.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AIPC.1692b0024G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AIPC.1692b0024G"><span>Valuation of Indonesian catastrophic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> bonds with generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest <span class="hlt">rate</span> model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Gunardi, Setiawan, Ezra Putranda</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Indonesia is a country with high risk of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, because of its position in the border of earth's tectonic plate. An <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> could raise very high amount of damage, loss, and other economic impacts. So, Indonesia needs a mechanism for transferring the risk of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> from the government or the (reinsurance) company, as it could collect enough money for implementing the rehabilitation and reconstruction program. One of the mechanisms is by issuing catastrophe bond, `act-of-God bond', or simply CAT bond. A catastrophe bond issued by a special-purpose-vehicle (SPV) company, and then sold to the investor. The revenue from this transaction is joined with the money (premium) from the sponsor company and then invested in other product. If a catastrophe happened before the time-of-maturity, cash flow from the SPV to the investor will discounted or stopped, and the cash flow is paid to the sponsor company to compensate their loss because of this catastrophe event. When we consider the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> only, the amount of discounted cash flow could determine based on the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>'s magnitude. A case study with Indonesian <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> magnitude data show that the probability of maximum magnitude can model by generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. In pricing this catastrophe bond, we assumed stochastic interest <span class="hlt">rate</span> that following the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest <span class="hlt">rate</span> model. We develop formulas for pricing three types of catastrophe bond, namely zero coupon bonds, `coupon only at risk' bond, and `principal and coupon at risk' bond. Relationship between price of the catastrophe bond and CIR model's parameter, GEV's parameter, percentage of coupon, and discounted cash flow rule then explained via Monte Carlo simulation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70148283','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70148283"><span>Slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> on the San Diego trough fault zone, inner California Borderland, and the 1986 Oceanside <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> swarm revisited</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Ryan, Holly F.; Conrad, James E.; Paull, C.K.; McGann, Mary</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>The San Diego trough fault zone (SDTFZ) is part of a 90-km-wide zone of faults within the inner California Borderland that accommodates motion between the Pacific and North American plates. Along with most faults offshore southern California, the slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> and paleoseismic history of the SDTFZ are unknown. We present new seismic reflection data that show that the fault zone steps across a 5-km-wide stepover to continue for an additional 60 km north of its previously mapped extent. The 1986 Oceanside <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> swarm is located within the 20-km-long restraining stepover. Farther north, at the latitude of Santa Catalina Island, the SDTFZ bends 20° to the west and may be linked via a complex zone of folds with the San Pedro basin fault zone (SPBFZ). In a cooperative program between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI), we measure and date the coseismic offset of a submarine channel that intersects the fault zone near the SDTFZ–SPBFZ junction. We estimate a horizontal slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> of about 1:5 0:3 mm=yr over the past 12,270 yr.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17336329','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17336329"><span>Differentiation of women with premenstrual dysphoric disorder, <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> brief depression, and healthy controls by daily mood <span class="hlt">rating</span> dynamics.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Pincus, Steven M; Schmidt, Peter J; Palladino-Negro, Paula; Rubinow, David R</p> <p>2008-04-01</p> <p>Enhanced statistical characterization of mood-<span class="hlt">rating</span> data holds the potential to more precisely classify and sub-classify <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> mood disorders like premenstrual dysphoric disorder (PMDD) and <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> brief depressive disorder (RBD). We applied several complementary statistical methods to differentiate mood <span class="hlt">rating</span> dynamics among women with PMDD, RBD, and normal controls (NC). We compared three subgroups of women: NC (n=8); PMDD (n=15); and RBD (n=9) on the basis of daily self-<span class="hlt">ratings</span> of sadness, study lengths between 50 and 120 days. We analyzed mean levels; overall variability, SD; sequential irregularity, approximate entropy (ApEn); and a quantification of the extent of brief and staccato dynamics, denoted 'Spikiness'. For each of SD, irregularity (ApEn), and Spikiness, we showed highly significant subgroup differences, ANOVA0.001 for each statistic; additionally, many paired subgroup comparisons showed highly significant differences. In contrast, mean levels were indistinct among the subgroups. For SD, normal controls had much smaller levels than the other subgroups, with RBD intermediate. ApEn showed PMDD to be significantly more regular than the other subgroups. Spikiness showed NC and RBD data sets to be much more staccato than their PMDD counterparts, and appears to suitably characterize the defining feature of RBD dynamics. Compound criteria based on these statistical measures discriminated diagnostic subgroups with high sensitivity and specificity. Taken together, the statistical suite provides well-defined specifications of each subgroup. This can facilitate accurate diagnosis, and augment the prediction and evaluation of response to treatment. The statistical methodologies have broad and direct applicability to behavioral studies for many psychiatric disorders, and indeed to similar analyses of associated biological signals across multiple axes.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li class="active"><span>14</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_14 --> <div id="page_15" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li class="active"><span>15</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="281"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27150644','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27150644"><span>Opening the Internal Hematoma Membrane Does Not Alter the <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">Rate</span> of Chronic Subdural Hematomas: A Prospective Randomized Trial.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Unterhofer, Claudia; Freyschlag, Christian F; Thomé, Claudius; Ortler, Martin</p> <p>2016-08-01</p> <p>Factors determining the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of chronic subdural hematomas (CSDHs) are not clear. Whether opening the so-called internal hematoma membrane is useful has not been investigated. To investigate whether splitting the inner hematoma membrane influences the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> in patients undergoing burr-hole craniotomy for CSDH. Fifty-two awake patients undergoing surgery for 57 CSDHs were prospectively randomized to either partial opening of the inner hematoma membrane (group A) or not (group B) after enlarged burr-hole craniotomy and hematoma evacuation. Drainage was left in situ for several days postoperatively. Groups were comparable with regard to demographic, clinical, and imaging variables. Outcome was assessed after 3-6 weeks for the combined outcome variable of reoperation or residual hematoma of one third or more of the original hematoma thickness. Fourteen patients underwent reoperation for clinical deterioration or residual hematoma during follow-up (n = 6 in group A, 21%; n = 8 in group B, 28 %) (P = 0.537). Residual hematoma of ≥ one third not requiring surgery was present in 7 patients in group A (25%) and 10 patients in group B (36%) (P = 0.383). The overall cumulative failure <span class="hlt">rate</span> (reoperation or hematoma thickness ≥ one third) was 13/28 (46%) in group A and 18/28 in group B (P = 0.178; relative risk, 0.722 [95% confidence interval, 0.445-1.172]; absolute risk reduction -16% [95% confidence interval, -38% to 8%]). Opening the internal hematoma membrane does not alter the <span class="hlt">rate</span> of patients requiring revision surgery and the number of patients showing a marked residual hematoma 6 weeks after evacuation of a CSDH. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22645102-perioperative-interstitial-high-dose-rate-brachytherapy-treatment-recurrent-keloids-feasibility-early-results','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22645102-perioperative-interstitial-high-dose-rate-brachytherapy-treatment-recurrent-keloids-feasibility-early-results"><span>Perioperative Interstitial High-Dose-<span class="hlt">Rate</span> Brachytherapy for the Treatment of <span class="hlt">Recurrent</span> Keloids: Feasibility and Early Results</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Jiang, Ping, E-mail: ping.jiang@uksh.de; Baumann, René; Dunst, Juergen</p> <p></p> <p>Purpose: To prospectively evaluate high-dose-<span class="hlt">rate</span> brachytherapy in the treatment of therapy-resistant keloids and report first results, with emphasis on feasibility and early treatment outcome. Methods and Materials: From 2009 to 2014, 24 patients with 32 <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> keloids were treated with immediate perioperative high-dose-<span class="hlt">rate</span> brachytherapy; 3 patients had been previously treated with adjuvant external beam radiation therapy and presented with <span class="hlt">recurrences</span> in the pretreated areas. Two or more different treatment modalities had been tried in all patients and had failed to achieve remission. After (re-)excision of the keloids, a single brachytherapy tube was placed subcutaneously before closing the wound. The target volumemore » covered the scar in total length. Brachytherapy was given in 3 fractions with a single dose of 6 Gy in 5 mm tissue depth. The first fraction was given within 6 hours after surgery, the other 2 fractions on the first postoperative day. Thus, a total dose of 18 Gy in 3 fractions was administered within 36 hours after the resection. Results: The treatment was feasible in all patients. No procedure-related complications (eg, secondary infections) occurred. Nineteen patients had keloid-related symptoms before treatment like pain and pruritus; disappearance of symptoms was noticed in all patients after treatment. After a median follow-up of 29.4 months (range, 7.9-72.4 months), 2 keloid <span class="hlt">recurrences</span> and 2 mildly hypertrophied scars were observed. The local control <span class="hlt">rate</span> was 94%. Pigmentary abnormalities were detected in 3 patients, and an additional 6 patients had a mild delay in the wound-healing process. Conclusions: The early results of this study prove the feasibility and the efficacy of brachytherapy for the prevention of keloids. The results also suggest that brachytherapy may be advantageous in the management of high-risk keloids or as salvage treatment for failure after external beam therapy.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMNH13A1366L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMNH13A1366L"><span>Linking giant <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> with the subduction of oceanic fracture zones</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Landgrebe, T. C.; Müller, R. D.; EathByte Group</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>Giant subduction <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are known to occur in areas not previously identified as prone to high seismic risk. This highlights the need to better identify subduction zone segments potentially dominated by relatively long (up to 1000 years and more) <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> times of giant <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Global digital data sets represent a promising source of information for a multi-dimensional <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard analysis. We combine the NGDC global Significant <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> database with a global strain <span class="hlt">rate</span> map, gridded ages of the ocean floor, and a recently produced digital data set for oceanic fracture zones, major aseismic ridges and volcanic chains to investigate the association of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> as a function of magnitude with age of the downgoing slab and convergence <span class="hlt">rates</span>. We use a so-called Top-N recommendation method, a technology originally developed to search, sort, classify, and filter very large and often statistically skewed data sets on the internet, to analyse the association of subduction <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> sorted by magnitude with key parameters. The Top-N analysis is used to progressively assess how strongly particular "tectonic niche" locations (e.g. locations along subduction zones intersected with aseismic ridges or volcanic chains) are associated with sets of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in sorted order in a given magnitude range. As the total number N of sorted <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> is increased, by progressively including smaller-magnitude events, the so-called recall is computed, defined as the number of Top-N <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> associated with particular target areas divided by N. The resultant statistical measure represents an intuitive description of the effectiveness of a given set of parameters to account for the location of significant <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on record. We use this method to show that the occurrence of great (magnitude ≥ 8) <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on overriding plate segments is strongly biased towards intersections of oceanic fracture zones with subduction zones. These intersection regions are</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/AD1008259','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/AD1008259"><span>Establishing the Mineral Apposition <span class="hlt">Rate</span> of Heterotopic Ossification for Prevention of <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.dtic.mil/">DTIC Science & Technology</a></p> <p></p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>oxygenation has been demonstrated to have deleterious effects on wound closure <span class="hlt">rates</span>, latency to resumption of an unperturbed blood flow, and may delay the...techniques like near-infrared spectroscopy and blood oxygen level-dependent magnetic resonance imaging may provide noninvasive, precise, and time- effective ...Itada N, Friedenberg ZB. Cathodic oxygen consumption and electrically induced osteogenesis. Clin Orthop Relat Res. 1975;(107):277–282. 27. Ren H</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22743956','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22743956"><span>A systematic review of complication and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> of musculocutaneous, fasciocutaneous, and perforator-based flaps for treatment of pressure sores.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Sameem, Mojib; Au, Michael; Wood, Thomas; Farrokhyar, Forough; Mahoney, James</p> <p>2012-07-01</p> <p>Management of pressure sores poses a significant reconstructive challenge for plastic surgeons. Currently, there is no consensus on whether musculocutaneous, fasciocutaneous, or perforator-based flaps provide superior results for treating pressure sores. The following databases were searched: Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, LILACS (January of 1950 to November of 2010), MEDLINE (January of 1950 to November of 2010), and EMBASE (January of 1980 to November of 2010). Only articles reporting on the use of musculocutaneous, fasciocutaneous, and perforator-based flaps were included. The primary study outcomes were complication and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span>. Fifty-five articles were included in the final analysis (kappa = 0.78). From this total, 28 were categorized as pertaining to musculocutaneous flaps, 13 studied fasciocutaneous flaps, and 14 evaluated perforator-based flaps. The authors' review revealed <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> and complication <span class="hlt">rates</span> of 8.9 and 18.6 percent, respectively, following reconstruction with musculocutaneous flaps, 11.2 and 11.7 percent following reconstruction with fasciocutaneous flaps, and 5.6 and 19.6 percent following reconstruction with perforator-based flaps. Overall, statistical analysis revealed no significant difference in complication or <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> among these three techniques. The authors' review revealed that there was no statistically significant difference with regard to <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> or complication <span class="hlt">rates</span> among musculocutaneous, fasciocutaneous, or perforator-based flaps. This suggests that surgeons performing such reconstructive procedures may choose to consider the advantages of a specific approach rather than the complication and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span>. Therapeutic, IV.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.S53A2749I','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.S53A2749I"><span>Inter-plate aseismic slip on the subducting plate boundaries estimated from repeating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Igarashi, T.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Sequences of repeating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are caused by repeating slips of small patches surrounded by aseismic slip areas at plate boundary zones. Recently, they have been detected in many regions. In this study, I detected repeating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> which occurred in Japan and the world by using seismograms observed in the Japanese seismic network, and investigated the space-time characteristics of inter-plate aseismic slip on the subducting plate boundaries. To extract repeating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, I calculate cross-correlation coefficients of band-pass filtering seismograms at each station following Igarashi [2010]. I used two data-set based on USGS catalog for about 25 years from May 1990 and JMA catalog for about 13 years from January 2002. As a result, I found many sequences of repeating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the subducting plate boundaries of the Andaman-Sumatra-Java and Japan-Kuril-Kamchatka-Aleutian subduction zones. By applying the scaling relations among a seismic moment, <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> interval and slip proposed by Nadeau and Johnson [1998], they indicate the space-time changes of inter-plate aseismic slips. Pairs of repeating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> with the longest time interval occurred in the Solomon Islands area and the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> interval was about 18.5 years. The estimated slip-<span class="hlt">rate</span> is about 46 mm/year, which correspond to about half of the relative plate motion in this area. Several sequences with fast slip-<span class="hlt">rates</span> correspond to the post-seismic slips after the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (M9.0), the 2006 Kuril <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (M8.3), the 2007 southern Sumatra <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (M8.5), and the 2011 Tohoku-oki <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (M9.0). The database of global repeating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> enables the comparison of the inter-plate aseismic slips of various plate boundary zones of the world. I believe that I am likely to detect more sequences by extending analysis periods in the area where they were not found in this analysis.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.S51B2684L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.S51B2684L"><span>Dynamic Simulation of the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> with Geometric Complexity on a <span class="hlt">Rate</span>- and State-dependent Subduction Plane</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Luo, B.; Duan, B.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>The Mw 9.0 Tohoku megathrust <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> on 11 March 2011 is a great surprise to the scientific community due to its unexpected occurrence on the subduction zone of Japan Trench where <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> of magnitude ~7 to 8 are expected based on historical records. Slip distribution and kinematic slip history inverted from seismic data, GPS and tsunami recordings reveal two major aspects of this big event: a strong asperity near the hypocenter and large slip near the trench. To investigate physical conditions of these two aspects, we perform dynamic rupture simulations on a shallow-dipping <span class="hlt">rate</span>- and state-dependent subduction plane with topographic relief. Although existence of a subducted seamount just up-dip of the hypocenter is still an open question, high Vp anomalies [Zhao et al., 2011] and low Vp/Vs anomalies [Yamamoto et al., 2014] there strongly suggest some kind of topographic relief exists there. We explicitly incorporate a subducted seamount on the subduction surface into our models. Our preliminary results show that the subducted seamount play a significant role in dynamic rupture propagation due to the alteration of the stress state around it. We find that a subducted seamount can act as a strong barrier to many <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, but its ultimate failure after some <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycles results in giant <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Its failure gives rise to large stress drop, resulting in a strong asperity in slip distribution as revealed in kinematic inversions. Our preliminary results also suggest that the <span class="hlt">rate</span>- and state- friction law plays an important role in rupture propagation of geometrically complex faults. Although <span class="hlt">rate</span>-strengthening behavior near the trench impedes rupture propagation, an energetic rupture can break such a barrier and manage to reach the trench, resulting in significant uplift at seafloor and hence devastating tsunami to human society.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoRL..4312004A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoRL..4312004A"><span>Moment <span class="hlt">rate</span> scaling for <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> 3.3 ≤ M ≤ 5.3 with implications for stress drop</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Archuleta, Ralph J.; Ji, Chen</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>We have determined a scalable apparent moment <span class="hlt">rate</span> function (aMRF) that correctly predicts the peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), local magnitude, and the ratio of PGA/PGV for <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> 3.3 ≤ M ≤ 5.3. Using the NGA-West2 database for 3.0 ≤ M ≤ 7.7, we find a break in scaling of LogPGA and LogPGV versus M around M 5.3 with nearly linear scaling for LogPGA and LogPGV for 3.3 ≤ M ≤ 5.3. Temporal parameters tp and td—related to rise time and total duration—control the aMRF. Both scale with seismic moment. The Fourier amplitude spectrum of the aMRF has two corners between which the spectrum decays f- 1. Significant attenuation along the raypath results in a Brune-like spectrum with one corner fC. Assuming that fC ≅ 1/td, the aMRF predicts non-self-similar scaling M0∝fC3.3 and weak stress drop scaling Δσ∝M00.091. This aMRF can explain why stress drop is different from the stress parameter used to predict high-frequency ground motion.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70101108','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70101108"><span>Missing great <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Hough, Susan E.</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>The occurrence of three <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> with moment magnitude (Mw) greater than 8.8 and six <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> larger than Mw 8.5, since 2004, has raised interest in the long-term global <span class="hlt">rate</span> of great <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Past studies have focused on the analysis of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> since 1900, which roughly marks the start of the instrumental era in seismology. Before this time, the catalog is less complete and magnitude estimates are more uncertain. Yet substantial information is available for <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> before 1900, and the catalog of historical events is being used increasingly to improve hazard assessment. Here I consider the catalog of historical <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and show that approximately half of all Mw ≥ 8.5 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are likely missing or underestimated in the 19th century. I further present a reconsideration of the felt effects of the 8 February 1843, Lesser Antilles <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, including a first thorough assessment of felt reports from the United States, and show it is an example of a known historical <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> that was significantly larger than initially estimated. The results suggest that incorporation of best available catalogs of historical <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> will likely lead to a significant underestimation of seismic hazard and/or the maximum possible magnitude in many regions, including parts of the Caribbean.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.T43B0689S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.T43B0689S"><span>Dynamics of folding: Impact of fault bend folds on <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycles</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sathiakumar, S.; Barbot, S.; Hubbard, J.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> in subduction zones and subaerial convergent margins are some of the largest in the world. So far, forecasts of future <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> have primarily relied on assessing past <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> to look for seismic gaps and slip deficits. However, the roles of fault geometry and off-fault plasticity are typically overlooked. We use structural geology (fault-bend folding theory) to inform fault modeling in order to better understand how deformation is accommodated on the geological time scale and through the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle. Fault bends in megathrusts, like those proposed for the Nepal Himalaya, will induce folding of the upper plate. This introduces changes in the slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> on different fault segments, and therefore on the loading <span class="hlt">rate</span> at the plate interface, profoundly affecting the pattern of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycles. We develop numerical simulations of slip evolution under <span class="hlt">rate</span>-and-state friction and show that this effect introduces segmentation of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle. In crustal dynamics, it is challenging to describe the dynamics of fault-bend folds, because the deformation is accommodated by small amounts of slip parallel to bedding planes ("flexural slip"), localized on axial surface, i.e. folding axes pinned to fault bends. We use dislocation theory to describe the dynamics of folding along these axial surfaces, using analytic solutions that provide displacement and stress kernels to simulate the temporal evolution of folding and assess the effects of folding on <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycles. Studies of the 2015 Gorkha <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, Nepal, have shown that fault geometry can affect <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> segmentation. Here, we show that in addition to the fault geometry, the actual geology of the rocks in the hanging wall of the fault also affect critical parameters, including the loading <span class="hlt">rate</span> on parts of the fault, based on fault-bend folding theory. Because loading velocity controls the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> time of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, these two effects together are likely to have a strong impact on the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22494308-valuation-indonesian-catastrophic-earthquake-bonds-generalized-extreme-value-gev-distribution-cox-ingersoll-ross-cir-interest-rate-model','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22494308-valuation-indonesian-catastrophic-earthquake-bonds-generalized-extreme-value-gev-distribution-cox-ingersoll-ross-cir-interest-rate-model"><span>Valuation of Indonesian catastrophic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> bonds with generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest <span class="hlt">rate</span> model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Gunardi,; Setiawan, Ezra Putranda</p> <p></p> <p>Indonesia is a country with high risk of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, because of its position in the border of earth’s tectonic plate. An <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> could raise very high amount of damage, loss, and other economic impacts. So, Indonesia needs a mechanism for transferring the risk of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> from the government or the (reinsurance) company, as it could collect enough money for implementing the rehabilitation and reconstruction program. One of the mechanisms is by issuing catastrophe bond, ‘act-of-God bond’, or simply CAT bond. A catastrophe bond issued by a special-purpose-vehicle (SPV) company, and then sold to the investor. The revenue from this transactionmore » is joined with the money (premium) from the sponsor company and then invested in other product. If a catastrophe happened before the time-of-maturity, cash flow from the SPV to the investor will discounted or stopped, and the cash flow is paid to the sponsor company to compensate their loss because of this catastrophe event. When we consider the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> only, the amount of discounted cash flow could determine based on the earthquake’s magnitude. A case study with Indonesian <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> magnitude data show that the probability of maximum magnitude can model by generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. In pricing this catastrophe bond, we assumed stochastic interest <span class="hlt">rate</span> that following the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest <span class="hlt">rate</span> model. We develop formulas for pricing three types of catastrophe bond, namely zero coupon bonds, ‘coupon only at risk’ bond, and ‘principal and coupon at risk’ bond. Relationship between price of the catastrophe bond and CIR model’s parameter, GEV’s parameter, percentage of coupon, and discounted cash flow rule then explained via Monte Carlo simulation.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3596369','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3596369"><span>Hazard-<span class="hlt">Rate</span> Analysis and Patterns of <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> in Early Stage Melanoma: Moving towards a Rationally Designed Surveillance Strategy</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Scheri, Randall P.; Pruitt, Scott K.; Herndon, James E.; Marcello, Jennifer; Tyler, Douglas S.; Abernethy, Amy P.</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Background While curable at early stages, few treatment options exist for advanced melanoma. Currently, no consensus exists regarding the optimal surveillance strategy for patients after resection. The objectives of this study were to identify patterns of metastatic <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>, to determine the influence of metastatic site on survival, and to identify high-risk periods for <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. Methods A retrospective review of the Duke Melanoma Database from 1970 to 2004 was conducted that focused on patients who were initially diagnosed without metastatic disease. The time to first <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> was computed from the date of diagnosis, and the associated hazard function was examined to determine the peak risk period of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. Metastatic sites were coded by the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) system including local skin, distant skin and nodes (M1a), lung (M1b), and other distant (M1c). Results Of 11,615 patients initially diagnosed without metastatic disease, 4616 (40%) had at least one <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. Overall the risk of initial <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> peaked at 12 months. The risk of initial <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> at the local skin, distant skin, and nodes peaked at 8 months, and the risk at lung and other distant sites peaked at 24 months. Patients with a cutaneous or nodal <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> had improved survival compared to other <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> types. Conclusions The risk of developing <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> melanoma peaked at one year, and the site of first <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> had a significant impact on survival. Defining the timing and expected patterns of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> will be important in creating an optimized surveillance strategy for this patient population. PMID:23516415</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28823395','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28823395"><span>MR- versus CT-based high-dose-<span class="hlt">rate</span> interstitial brachytherapy for vaginal <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of endometrial cancer.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kamran, Sophia C; Manuel, Matthias M; Catalano, Paul; Cho, Linda; Damato, Antonio L; Lee, Larissa J; Schmidt, Ehud J; Viswanathan, Akila N</p> <p></p> <p>To compare clinical outcomes of MR-based versus CT-based high-dose-<span class="hlt">rate</span> interstitial brachytherapy (ISBT) for vaginal <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of endometrioid endometrial cancer (EC). We reviewed 66 patients with vaginal <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> EC; 18 had MR-based ISBT on a prospective clinical trial and 48 had CT-based treatment. Kaplan-Meier survival modeling was used to generate estimates for local control (LC), disease-free interval (DFI), and overall survival (OS), and multivariate Cox modeling was used to assess prognostic factors. Toxicities were evaluated and compared. Median followup was 33 months (CT 30 months, MR 35 months). Median cumulative equivalent dose in 2-Gy fractions was 75.5 Gy for MR-ISBT and 73.8 Gy for CT-ISBT (p = 0.58). MR patients were older (p = 0.03) and had larger tumor size (>4 cm vs. ≤ 4 cm) compared to CT patients (p = 0.04). For MR-based versus CT-based ISBT, 3-year KM <span class="hlt">rate</span> for local control was 100% versus 78% (p = 0.04), DFI was 69% versus 55% (p = 0.1), and OS was 63% versus 75% (p = 0.81), respectively. On multivariate analysis, tumor Grade 3 was associated with worse OS (HR 3.57, 95% CI 1.25, 11.36) in a model with MR-ISBT (HR 0.56, 95% CI 0.16, 1.89). Toxicities were not significantly different between the two modalities. Despite worse patient prognostic features, MR-ISBT was associated with a significantly better (100%) 3-year local control, comparable survival, and improved DFI <span class="hlt">rates</span> compared to CT. Toxicities did not differ compared to CT-ISBT patients. Tumor grade contributed as the most significant predictor for survival. Larger prospective studies are needed to assess the impact of MR-ISBT on survival outcomes. Copyright © 2017 American Brachytherapy Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29168407','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29168407"><span>Mortality and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> among systemically untreated high risk breast cancer patients included in the DBCG 77 trials.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Jensen, Maj-Britt; Nielsen, Torsten O; Knoop, Ann S; Laenkholm, Anne-Vibeke; Balslev, Eva; Ejlertsen, Bent</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>Following loco-regional treatment for early breast cancer accurate prognostication is essential for communicating benefits of systemic treatment. The aim of this study was to determine time to <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> and long-term mortality <span class="hlt">rates</span> in high risk patients according to patient characteristics and subtypes as assigned by immunohistochemistry panels. In November 1977 through January 1983, 2862 patients with tumors larger than 5 cm or positive axillary nodes were included in the DBCG 77 trials. Archival tumor tissue from patients randomly assigned to no systemic treatment was analyzed for ER, PR, Ki67, EGFR and HER2. Intrinsic subtypes were defined as follows: Luminal A, ER or PR >0%, HER2-negative, PR >10% and Ki67 < 14%; Luminal B, ER or PR >0%, (PR ≤10% or HER2-positive or Ki67 ≥ 14%); HER2E, ER 0%, PR 0%, HER2 positive; Core basal, ER 0%, PR 0%, HER2 negative and EGFR positive. Multivariate categorical and fractional polynomials (MFP) models were used to construct prognostic subsets by clinicopathologic characteristics. In a multivariate model, mortality <span class="hlt">rate</span> was significantly associated with age, tumor size, nodal status, invasion, histological type and grade, as well as subtype classification. With 35 years of follow-up, in this population of high-risk patients with no systemic therapy, no subgroup based on a composite prognostic score and/or molecular subtypes could be identified without excess mortality as compared to the background population.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70025332','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70025332"><span>Late Holocene <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on the Toe Jam Hill fault, Seattle fault zone, Bainbridge Island, Washington</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Nelson, A.R.; Johnson, S.Y.; Kelsey, H.M.; Wells, R.E.; Sherrod, B.L.; Pezzopane, S.K.; Bradley, L.A.; Koehler, R. D.; Bucknam, R.C.</p> <p>2003-01-01</p> <p>Five trenches across a Holocene fault scarp yield the first radiocarbon-measured <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> intervals for a crustal fault in western Washington. The scarp, the first to be revealed by laser imagery, marks the Toe Jam Hill fault, a north-dipping backthrust to the Seattle fault. Folded and faulted strata, liquefaction features, and forest soil A horizons buried by hanging-wall-collapse colluvium record three, or possibly four, <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> between 2500 and 1000 yr ago. The most recent <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is probably the 1050-1020 cal. (calibrated) yr B.P. (A.D. 900-930) <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> that raised marine terraces and triggered a tsunami in Puget Sound. Vertical deformation estimated from stratigraphic and surface offsets at trench sites suggests late Holocene <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> magnitudes near M7, corresponding to surface ruptures >36 km long. Deformation features recording poorly understood latest Pleistocene <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> suggest that they were smaller than late Holocene <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Postglacial <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> intervals based on 97 radiocarbon ages, most on detrital charcoal, range from ???12,000 yr to as little as a century or less; corresponding fault-slip <span class="hlt">rates</span> are 0.2 mm/yr for the past 16,000 yr and 2 mm/yr for the past 2500 yr. Because the Toe Jam Hill fault is a backthrust to the Seattle fault, it may not have ruptured during every <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> on the Seattle fault. But the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> history of the Toe Jam Hill fault is at least a partial proxy for the history of the rest of the Seattle fault zone.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26492490','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26492490"><span>Does Prison Crowding Predict Higher <span class="hlt">Rates</span> of Substance Use Related Parole Violations? A <span class="hlt">Recurrent</span> Events Multi-Level Survival Analysis.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ruderman, Michael A; Wilson, Deirdra F; Reid, Savanna</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>This administrative data-linkage cohort study examines the association between prison crowding and the <span class="hlt">rate</span> of post-release parole violations in a random sample of prisoners released with parole conditions in California, for an observation period of two years (January 2003 through December 2004). Crowding overextends prison resources needed to adequately protect inmates and provide drug rehabilitation services. Violence and lack of access to treatment are known risk factors for drug use and substance use disorders. These and other psychosocial effects of crowding may lead to higher <span class="hlt">rates</span> of recidivism in California parolees. <span class="hlt">Rates</span> of parole violation for parolees exposed to high and medium levels of prison crowding were compared to parolees with low prison crowding exposure. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using a Cox model for <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> events. Our dataset included 13070 parolees in California, combining individual level parolee data with aggregate level crowding data for multilevel analysis. Comparing parolees exposed to high crowding with those exposed to low crowding, the effect sizes from greatest to least were absconding violations (HR 3.56 95% CI: 3.05-4.17), drug violations (HR 2.44 95% CI: 2.00-2.98), non-violent violations (HR 2.14 95% CI: 1.73-2.64), violent and serious violations (HR 1.88 95% CI: 1.45-2.43), and technical violations (HR 1.86 95% CI: 1.37-2.53). Prison crowding predicted higher <span class="hlt">rates</span> of parole violations after release from prison. The effect was magnitude-dependent and particularly strong for drug charges. Further research into whether adverse prison experiences, such as crowding, are associated with recidivism and drug use in particular may be warranted.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4619627','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4619627"><span>Does Prison Crowding Predict Higher <span class="hlt">Rates</span> of Substance Use Related Parole Violations? A <span class="hlt">Recurrent</span> Events Multi-Level Survival Analysis</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Ruderman, Michael A.; Wilson, Deirdra F.; Reid, Savanna</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Objective This administrative data-linkage cohort study examines the association between prison crowding and the <span class="hlt">rate</span> of post-release parole violations in a random sample of prisoners released with parole conditions in California, for an observation period of two years (January 2003 through December 2004). Background Crowding overextends prison resources needed to adequately protect inmates and provide drug rehabilitation services. Violence and lack of access to treatment are known risk factors for drug use and substance use disorders. These and other psychosocial effects of crowding may lead to higher <span class="hlt">rates</span> of recidivism in California parolees. Methods <span class="hlt">Rates</span> of parole violation for parolees exposed to high and medium levels of prison crowding were compared to parolees with low prison crowding exposure. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using a Cox model for <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> events. Our dataset included 13070 parolees in California, combining individual level parolee data with aggregate level crowding data for multilevel analysis. Results Comparing parolees exposed to high crowding with those exposed to low crowding, the effect sizes from greatest to least were absconding violations (HR 3.56 95% CI: 3.05–4.17), drug violations (HR 2.44 95% CI: 2.00–2.98), non-violent violations (HR 2.14 95% CI: 1.73–2.64), violent and serious violations (HR 1.88 95% CI: 1.45–2.43), and technical violations (HR 1.86 95% CI: 1.37–2.53). Conclusions Prison crowding predicted higher <span class="hlt">rates</span> of parole violations after release from prison. The effect was magnitude-dependent and particularly strong for drug charges. Further research into whether adverse prison experiences, such as crowding, are associated with recidivism and drug use in particular may be warranted. PMID:26492490</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26922440','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26922440"><span>Complication and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> in laser CO2 versus traditional surgery in the treatment of Bartholin's gland cyst.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Frega, Antonio; Schimberni, Mauro; Ralli, Eleonora; Verrone, Antonella; Manzara, Federica; Schimberni, Matteo; Nobili, Flavia; Caserta, Donatella</p> <p>2016-08-01</p> <p>The treatment of Bartholin's gland cysts by traditional surgery is characterized by some disadvantages and complications such as hemorrhage, postoperative dyspareunia, infections, necessity for a general anesthesia. Contrarily, CO2 laser surgery might be less invasive and more effective as it solves many problems of traditional surgery. The aim of our study is to describe CO2 laser technique evaluating its feasibility, complication <span class="hlt">rate</span> and results vs traditional surgery. Among patients treated for Bartholin's gland cyst, we enrolled 62 patients comparing traditional surgical excision vs CO2 laser surgery of whom 27 patients underwent traditional surgery, whereas 35 patients underwent CO2 laser surgery. Mean operative time, complication <span class="hlt">rate</span>, <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> and short- and long-term outcomes were assessed. The procedures required a mean operative time of 9 ± 5.3 min for CO2 laser surgery and 42.2 ± 13.8 for traditional surgery. Two patients (5.7 %) needed an hemostatic suture for intraoperative bleeding in the laser CO2 laser technique against 14.8 % for traditional surgery. Carbon dioxide allows a complete healing in a mean time of 22 days without scarring, hematomas or wound infections and a return to daily living in a mean time of 2 days. Instead, patients undergone traditional surgery required a mean time of 14 days to return to daily life with a healing mean time completed in 28 days. The minimum <span class="hlt">rate</span> of intra- and post-operative complications, the ability to perform it under local anesthesia in an outpatient setting make CO2 laser surgery more cost-effective than traditional surgery.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23887595','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23887595"><span>Lower reoperation <span class="hlt">rate</span> for <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> after mesh versus sutured elective repair in small umbilical and epigastric hernias. A nationwide register study.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Christoffersen, M W; Helgstrand, F; Rosenberg, J; Kehlet, H; Bisgaard, T</p> <p>2013-11-01</p> <p>Repair for a small (≤ 2 cm) umbilical and epigastric hernia is a minor surgical procedure. The most common surgical repair techniques are a sutured repair or a repair with mesh reinforcement. However, the optimal repair technique with regard to risk of reoperation for <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> is not well documented. The aim of the present study was in a nationwide setup to investigate the reoperation <span class="hlt">rate</span> for <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> after small open umbilical and epigastric hernia repairs using either sutured or mesh repair. This was a prospective cohort study based on intraoperative registrations from the Danish Ventral Hernia Database (DVHD) of patients undergoing elective open mesh and sutured repair for small (≤ 2 cm) umbilical and epigastric hernias. Patients were included during a 4-year study period. A complete follow-up was obtained by combining intraoperative data from the DVHD with data from the Danish National Patient Register. The cumulative reoperation <span class="hlt">rates</span> were obtained using cumulative incidence plot and compared with the log rank test. In total, 4,786 small (≤ 2 cm) elective open umbilical and epigastric hernia repairs were included. Age was median 48 years (range 18-95 years). Follow-up was 21 months (range 0-47 months). The cumulated reoperation <span class="hlt">rates</span> for <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> were 2.2 % for mesh reinforcement and 5.6 % for sutured repair (P = 0.001). The overall cumulated reoperation <span class="hlt">rate</span> for sutured and mesh repairs was 4.8 %. In conclusion, reoperation <span class="hlt">rate</span> for <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> for small umbilical and epigastric hernias was significantly lower after mesh repair compared with sutured repair. Mesh reinforcement should be routine in even small umbilical or epigastric hernias to lower the risk of reoperation for <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> avoid <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70024773','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70024773"><span>Stress triggering of the 1999 Hector Mine <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> by transient deformation following the 1992 Landers <span class="hlt">earthquake</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Pollitz, F.F.; Sacks, I.S.</p> <p>2002-01-01</p> <p>The M 7.3 June 28, 1992 Landers and M 7.1 October 16, 1999 Hector Mine <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, California, both right lateral strike-slip events on NNW-trending subvertical faults, occurred in close proximity in space and time in a region where <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> times for surface-rupturing <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are thousands of years. This suggests a causal role for the Landers <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in triggering the Hector Mine <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Previous modeling of the static stress change associated with the Landers <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> shows that the area of peak Hector Mine slip lies where the Coulomb failure stress promoting right-lateral strike-slip failure was high, but the nucleation point of the Hector Mine rupture was neutrally to weakly promoted, depending on the assumed coefficient of friction. Possible explanations that could account for the 7-year delay between the two ruptures include background tectonic stressing, dissipation of fluid pressure gradients, <span class="hlt">rate</span>- and state-dependent friction effects, and post-Landers viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle. By employing a viscoelastic model calibrated by geodetic data collected during the time period between the Landers and Hector Mine events, we calculate that postseismic relaxation produced a transient increase in Coulomb failure stress of about 0.7 bars on the impending Hector Mine rupture surface. The increase is greatest over the broad surface that includes the 1999 nucleation point and the site of peak slip further north. Since stress changes of magnitude greater than or equal to 0.1 bar are associated with documented causal fault interactions elsewhere, viscoelastic relaxation likely contributed to the triggering of the Hector Mine <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. This interpretation relies on the assumption that the faults occupying the central Mojave Desert (i.e., both the Landers and Hector Mine rupturing faults) were critically stressed just prior to the Landers <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li class="active"><span>15</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_15 --> <div id="page_16" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li class="active"><span>16</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="301"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GSL.....4....7H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GSL.....4....7H"><span>Historical <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> research in Austria</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hammerl, Christa</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Austria has a moderate seismicity, and on average the population feels 40 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> per year or approximately three <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> per month. A severe <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> with light building damage is expected roughly every 2 to 3 years in Austria. Severe damage to buildings ( I 0 > 8° EMS) occurs significantly less frequently, the average period of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> is about 75 years. For this reason the historical <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> research has been of special importance in Austria. The interest in historical <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the past in the Austro-Hungarian Empire is outlined, beginning with an initiative of the Austrian Academy of Sciences and the development of historical <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> research as an independent research field after the 1978 "Zwentendorf plebiscite" on whether the nuclear power plant will start up. The applied methods are introduced briefly along with the most important studies and last but not least as an example of a recently carried out case study, one of the strongest past <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in Austria, the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> of 17 July 1670, is presented. The research into historical <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in Austria concentrates on seismic events of the pre-instrumental period. The investigations are not only of historical interest, but also contribute to the completeness and correctness of the Austrian <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalogue, which is the basis for seismic hazard analysis and as such benefits the public, communities, civil engineers, architects, civil protection, and many others.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70029548','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70029548"><span>Time-dependent <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> probabilities</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Gomberg, J.; Belardinelli, M.E.; Cocco, M.; Reasenberg, P.</p> <p>2005-01-01</p> <p>We have attempted to provide a careful examination of a class of approaches for estimating the conditional probability of failure of a single large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, particularly approaches that account for static stress perturbations to tectonic loading as in the approaches of Stein et al. (1997) and Hardebeck (2004). We have loading as in the framework based on a simple, generalized <span class="hlt">rate</span> change formulation and applied it to these two approaches to show how they relate to one another. We also have attempted to show the connection between models of seismicity <span class="hlt">rate</span> changes applied to (1) populations of independent faults as in background and aftershock seismicity and (2) changes in estimates of the conditional probability of failures of different members of a the notion of failure <span class="hlt">rate</span> corresponds to successive failures of different members of a population of faults. The latter application requires specification of some probability distribution (density function of PDF) that describes some population of potential <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> times. This PDF may reflect our imperfect knowledge of when past <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> have occurred on a fault (epistemic uncertainty), the true natural variability in failure times, or some combination of both. We suggest two end-member conceptual single-fault models that may explain natural variability in <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> times and suggest how they might be distinguished observationally. When viewed deterministically, these single-fault patch models differ significantly in their physical attributes, and when faults are immature, they differ in their responses to stress perturbations. Estimates of conditional failure probabilities effectively integrate over a range of possible deterministic fault models, usually with ranges that correspond to mature faults. Thus conditional failure probability estimates usually should not differ significantly for these models. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1911903S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1911903S"><span>Aseismic blocks and destructive <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the Aegean</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Stiros, Stathis</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Aseismic areas are not identified only in vast, geologically stable regions, but also within regions of active, intense, distributed deformation such as the Aegean. In the latter, "aseismic blocks" about 200m wide were recognized in the 1990's on the basis of the absence of instrumentally-derived <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> foci, in contrast to surrounding areas. This pattern was supported by the available historical seismicity data, as well as by geologic evidence. Interestingly, GPS evidence indicates that such blocks are among the areas characterized by small deformation <span class="hlt">rates</span> relatively to surrounding areas of higher deformation. Still, the largest and most destructive <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> of the 1990's, the 1995 M6.6 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurred at the center of one of these "aseismic" zones at the northern part of Greece, found unprotected against seismic hazard. This case was indeed a repeat of the case of the tsunami-associated 1956 Amorgos Island M7.4 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, the largest 20th century event in the Aegean back-arc region: the 1956 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurred at the center of a geologically distinct region (Cyclades Massif in Central Aegean), till then assumed aseismic. Interestingly, after 1956, the overall idea of aseismic regions remained valid, though a "promontory" of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> prone-areas intruding into the aseismic central Aegean was assumed. Exploitation of the archaeological excavation evidence and careful, combined analysis of historical and archaeological data and other palaeoseismic, mostly coastal data, indicated that destructive and major <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> have left their traces in previously assumed aseismic blocks. In the latter <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> typically occur with relatively low <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> intervals, >200-300 years, much smaller than in adjacent active areas. Interestingly, areas assumed a-seismic in antiquity are among the most active in the last centuries, while areas hit by major <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the past are usually classified as areas of low seismic risk in official maps. Some reasons</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22494856','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22494856"><span><span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> and patient assessed outcomes of 0.5% 5-fluorouracil in combination with salicylic acid treating actinic keratoses.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Stockfleth, Eggert; Zwingers, Thomas; Willers, Christoph</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Actinic keratoses (AK) have been classified as early in situ squamous cell carcinomas and should be treated. To evaluate the clinical benefit of 5-fluorouracil 0.5%/salicylic acid 10.0% (5-FU/SA) versus 3% diclofenac/hyaluronic acid (HA) for the treatment of AK and report patients' assessments of efficacy, tolerability and practicability. Randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind, parallel-group, multicentre trial. Patients received topical 0.5% 5-FU/SA once daily, its vehicle or diclofenac/HA twice daily for maximum of 12 weeks. Lesion <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> were evaluated at 6 and 12 months after end of treatment (EOT). Patients' assessments were evaluated at 6 weeks, EOT, post-treatment (PT) visit, 6 and 12 months. At 12 months 85.8% of lesions did not recur in the 5-FU/SA group compared to 79.8% (p=0.04419) in the vehicle and 81.0% (p=0.02476) in the diclofenac/HA groups. At PT visit 93.2% patients (n=163/175) in the 5-FU/SA group <span class="hlt">rated</span> clinical improvement as "very good" or "good" compared to vehicle (66.7%, n=62/93, p<0.0001) and diclofenac/HA (81.6%, n=142/174, p<0.0001). Local side effects (inflammation and burning) were more common with 0.5% FU/SA but in general did not lead to discontinuation of therapy. Overall, patients were satisfied with the therapy. At 12 months, there were no differences in practicability and handling between treatments. Topical 0.5% 5-FU/SA demonstrated superior sustained clinical efficacy versus diclofenac/HA with acceptable tolerability. Patient satisfaction was high.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004GeoJI.159..931C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004GeoJI.159..931C"><span>New constraints on the rupture process of the 1999 August 17 Izmit <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> deduced from estimates of stress glut <span class="hlt">rate</span> moments</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Clévédé, E.; Bouin, M.-P.; Bukchin, B.; Mostinskiy, A.; Patau, G.</p> <p>2004-12-01</p> <p>This paper illustrates the use of integral estimates given by the stress glut <span class="hlt">rate</span> moments of total degree 2 for constraining the rupture scenario of a large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in the particular case of the 1999 Izmit mainshock. We determine the integral estimates of the geometry, source duration and rupture propagation given by the stress glut <span class="hlt">rate</span> moments of total degree 2 by inverting long-period surface wave (LPSW) amplitude spectra. Kinematic and static models of the Izmit <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> published in the literature are quite different from one another. In order to extract the characteristic features of this event, we calculate the same integral estimates directly from those models and compare them with those deduced from our inversion. While the equivalent rupture zone and the eastward directivity are consistent among all models, the LPSW solution displays a strong unilateral character of the rupture associated with a short rupture duration that is not compatible with the solutions deduced from the published models. With the aim of understand this discrepancy, we use simple equivalent kinematic models to reproduce the integral estimates of the considered rupture processes (including ours) by adjusting a few free parameters controlling the western and eastern parts of the rupture. We show that the joint analysis of the LPSW solution and source tomographies allows us to elucidate the scattering of source processes published for this <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and to discriminate between the models. Our results strongly suggest that (1) there was significant moment released on the eastern segment of the activated fault system during the Izmit <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>; (2) the apparent rupture velocity decreases on this segment.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMNH13D1952P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMNH13D1952P"><span>A reliable simultaneous representation of seismic hazard and of ground shaking <span class="hlt">recurrence</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Peresan, A.; Panza, G. F.; Magrin, A.; Vaccari, F.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Different <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard maps may be appropriate for different purposes - such as emergency management, insurance and engineering design. Accounting for the lower occurrence <span class="hlt">rate</span> of larger sporadic <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> may allow to formulate cost-effective policies in some specific applications, provided that statistically sound <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> estimates are used, which is not typically the case of PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment). We illustrate the procedure to associate the expected ground motions from Neo-deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) to an estimate of their <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. Neo-deterministic refers to a scenario-based approach, which allows for the construction of a broad range of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> scenarios via full waveforms modeling. From the synthetic seismograms the estimates of peak ground acceleration, velocity and displacement, or any other parameter relevant to seismic engineering, can be extracted. NDSHA, in its standard form, defines the hazard computed from a wide set of scenario <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (including the largest deterministically or historically defined credible <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, MCE) and it does not supply the frequency of occurrence of the expected ground shaking. A recent enhanced variant of NDSHA that reliably accounts for <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> has been developed and it is applied to the Italian territory. The characterization of the frequency-magnitude relation can be performed by any statistically sound method supported by data (e.g. multi-scale seismicity model), so that a <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> estimate is associated to each of the pertinent sources. In this way a standard NDSHA map of ground shaking is obtained simultaneously with the map of the corresponding <span class="hlt">recurrences</span>. The introduction of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> estimates in NDSHA naturally allows for the generation of ground shaking maps at specified return periods. This permits a straightforward comparison between NDSHA and PSHA maps.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19890328','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19890328"><span>Long aftershock sequences within continents and implications for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard assessment.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Stein, Seth; Liu, Mian</p> <p>2009-11-05</p> <p>One of the most powerful features of plate tectonics is that the known plate motions give insight into both the locations and average <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> interval of future large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on plate boundaries. Plate tectonics gives no insight, however, into where and when <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> will occur within plates, because the interiors of ideal plates should not deform. As a result, within plate interiors, assessments of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazards rely heavily on the assumption that the locations of small <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> shown by the short historical record reflect continuing deformation that will cause future large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Here, however, we show that many of these recent <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are probably aftershocks of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> that occurred hundreds of years ago. We present a simple model predicting that the length of aftershock sequences varies inversely with the <span class="hlt">rate</span> at which faults are loaded. Aftershock sequences within the slowly deforming continents are predicted to be significantly longer than the decade typically observed at rapidly loaded plate boundaries. These predictions are in accord with observations. So the common practice of treating continental <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> as steady-state seismicity overestimates the hazard in presently active areas and underestimates it elsewhere.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27538015','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27538015"><span>Does Early Resumption of Low-Dose Aspirin After Evacuation of Chronic Subdural Hematoma With Burr-Hole Drainage Lead to Higher <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">Rates</span>?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kamenova, Maria; Lutz, Katharina; Schaedelin, Sabine; Fandino, Javier; Mariani, Luigi; Soleman, Jehuda</p> <p>2016-11-01</p> <p>Antiplatelet therapy in patients with chronic subdural hematoma (cSDH) presents significant neurosurgical challenges. Given the lack of guidelines regarding perioperative management with antiplatelet therapy, it is difficult to balance the patient's increased cardiovascular risk and prevalence of cSDH. To better understand the risk and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> related to resuming low-dose acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) by evaluating our patients' resumption of low-dose ASA at various times after burr-hole drainage of the hematoma. In our retrospective study, 140 consecutive patients taking low-dose ASA undergoing surgical evacuation of cSDH were included. Data included baseline characteristics and <span class="hlt">rates</span> of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>, morbidity, and mortality. A multivariate logistic regression model analyzed the association between ASA resumption time and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span>. No statistically significant association was observed between early postoperative resumption of low-dose ASA and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of cSDH (odds ratio, 1.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.001-1.022; P = .06). Corresponding odds ratios and risk differences for restarting ASA treatment on postoperative days 1, 7, 14, 21, 28, 35, or 42 were estimated at 1.53 and 5.9%, 1.42 and 5.1%, 1.33 and 4.1%, 1.23 and 3.2%, 1.15 and 2.2%, 1.07 and 1.1%, and 1.01 and 0.2%, respectively (P > .05). Cardiovascular event <span class="hlt">rates</span>, surgical morbidity, and mortality did not significantly differ between patients with or without ASA therapy. Given the few published studies regarding ASA use in cranial neurosurgery, our findings elucidate one issue, showing comparable <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> with early or late resumption of low-dose ASA after burr-hole evacuation of cSDH. ASA, acetylsalicylic acidCAD, coronary artery diseaseCI, confidence intervalcSDH, chronic subdural hematomaGCS, Glasgow Coma ScalemRS, modified Rankin ScaleOR, odds ratioRD, risk difference.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25479909','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25479909"><span>Increased incidence and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> of nonmelanoma skin cancer in patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma: a Rochester Epidemiology Project population-based study in Minnesota.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Brewer, Jerry D; Shanafelt, Tait D; Khezri, Farzaneh; Sosa Seda, Ivette M; Zubair, Adeel S; Baum, Christian L; Arpey, Christopher J; Cerhan, James R; Call, Timothy G; Roenigk, Randall K; Smith, Carin Y; Weaver, Amy L; Otley, Clark C</p> <p>2015-02-01</p> <p>Cutaneous malignancy is associated with worse outcomes in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). We sought to identify the incidence and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> of nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). NMSC incidence was calculated and Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate associations with risk of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> for patients with NHL between 1976 and 2005 who were in the Rochester Epidemiology Project research infrastructure. We identified 282 patients with CLL or small lymphocytic lymphoma and 435 with non-CLL NHL. The incidence of basal cell carcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma was 1829.3 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1306.7-2491.1) and 2224.9 (95% CI 1645.9-2941.6), respectively, in patients with CLL. The cumulative <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> at 8 years after treatment with Mohs micrographic surgery was 8.3% (95% CI 0.0%-22.7%) for basal cell carcinoma and 13.4% (95% CI 0.0%-25.5%) for squamous cell carcinoma in patients with CLL. This was a retrospective cohort study. After Mohs micrographic surgery and standard excision of NMSC, patients with NHL had a skin cancer <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> that was higher than expected. Careful treatment and monitoring of patients with NHL and NMSC are warranted. Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29696158','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29696158"><span>A novel approach for analyzing data on <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> events with duration to estimate the combined cumulative <span class="hlt">rate</span> of both variables over time.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Bhattacharya, Sudipta</p> <p>2018-06-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Recurrent</span> adverse events, once occur often continue for some duration of time in clinical trials; and the number of events along with their durations is clinically considered as a measure of severity of a disease under study. While there are methods available for analyzing <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> events or durations or for analyzing both side by side, no effort has been made so far to combine them and present as a single measure. However, this single-valued combined measure may help clinicians assess the wholesome effect of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of incident comprising events and durations. Non-parametric approach is adapted here to develop an estimator for estimating the combined <span class="hlt">rate</span> of both, the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of events as well as the event-continuation, that is the duration per event. The proposed estimator produces a single numerical value, the interpretation and meaningfulness of which are discussed through the analysis of a real-life clinical dataset. The algebraic expression of variance is derived, asymptotic normality of the estimator is noted, and demonstration is provided on how the estimator can be used in the setup of testing of statistical hypothesis. Further possible development of the estimator is also noted, to adjust for the dependence of event occurrences on the history of the process generating <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> events through covariates and for the case of dependent censoring.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014E%26PSL.396..143W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014E%26PSL.396..143W"><span>Dilution of 10Be in detrital quartz by <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-induced landslides: Implications for determining denudation <span class="hlt">rates</span> and potential to provide insights into landslide sediment dynamics</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>West, A. Joshua; Hetzel, Ralf; Li, Gen; Jin, Zhangdong; Zhang, Fei; Hilton, Robert G.; Densmore, Alexander L.</p> <p>2014-06-01</p> <p>The concentration of 10Be in detrital quartz (10Beqtz) from river sediments is now widely used to quantify catchment-wide denudation <span class="hlt">rates</span> but may also be sensitive to inputs from bedrock landslides that deliver sediment with low 10Beqtz. Major landslide-triggering events can provide large amounts of low-concentration material to rivers in mountain catchments, but changes in river sediment 10Beqtz due to such events have not yet been measured directly. Here we examine the impact of widespread landslides triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> on 10Beqtz in sediment samples from the Min Jiang river basin, in Sichuan, China. Landslide deposit material associated with the Wenchuan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> has consistently lower 10Beqtz than in river sediment prior to the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. River sediment 10Beqtz decreased significantly following the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> downstream of areas of high coseismic landslide occurrence (i.e., with greater than ∼0.3% of the upstream catchment area affected by landslides), because of input of the 10Be-depleted landslide material, but showed no systematic changes where landslide occurrence was low. Changes in river sediment 10Beqtz concentration were largest in small first-order catchments but were still significant in large river basins with areas of 104-105 km. Spatial and temporal variability in river sediment 10Beqtz has important implications for inferring representative denudation <span class="hlt">rates</span> in tectonically active, landslide-dominated environments, even in large basins. Although the dilution of 10Beqtz in river sediment by landslide inputs may complicate interpretation of denudation <span class="hlt">rates</span>, it also may provide a possible opportunity to track the transport of landslide sediment. The associated uncertainties are large, but in the Wenchuan case, calculations based on 10Be mixing proportions suggest that river sediment fluxes in the 2-3 years following the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> increased by a similar order of magnitude in the 0.25-1 mm and the <0.25 mm size fractions</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004AGUFMNG54A..07J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004AGUFMNG54A..07J"><span><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Prediction in Large-scale Faulting Experiments</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Junger, J.; Kilgore, B.; Beeler, N.; Dieterich, J.</p> <p>2004-12-01</p> <p>We study repeated <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> slip of a 2 m long laboratory granite fault surface with approximately homogenous frictional properties. In this apparatus <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> follow a period of controlled, constant <span class="hlt">rate</span> shear stress increase, analogous to tectonic loading. Slip initiates and accumulates within a limited area of the fault surface while the surrounding fault remains locked. Dynamic rupture propagation and slip of the entire fault surface is induced when slip in the nucleating zone becomes sufficiently large. We report on the event to event reproducibility of loading time (<span class="hlt">recurrence</span> interval), failure stress, stress drop, and precursory activity. We tentatively interpret these variations as indications of the intrinsic variability of small <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence and source physics in this controlled setting. We use the results to produce measures of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> predictability based on the probability density of repeating occurrence and the reproducibility of near-field precursory strain. At 4 MPa normal stress and a loading <span class="hlt">rate</span> of 0.0001 MPa/s, the loading time is ˜25 min, with a coefficient of variation of around 10%. Static stress drop has a similar variability which results almost entirely from variability of the final (rather than initial) stress. Thus, the initial stress has low variability and event times are slip-predictable. The variability of loading time to failure is comparable to the lowest variability of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> time of small repeating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> at Parkfield (Nadeau et al., 1998) and our result may be a good estimate of the intrinsic variability of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. Distributions of loading time can be adequately represented by a log-normal or Weibel distribution but long term prediction of the next event time based on probabilistic representation of previous occurrence is not dramatically better than for field-observed small- or large-magnitude <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> datasets. The gradually accelerating precursory aseismic slip observed in the region of</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GeoJI.212.1627R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GeoJI.212.1627R"><span>Surface rupture of the 1933 M 7.5 Diexi <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in eastern Tibet: implications for seismogenic tectonics</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ren, Junjie; Xu, Xiwei; Zhang, Shimin; Yeats, Robert S.; Chen, Jiawei; Zhu, Ailan; Liu, Shao</p> <p>2018-03-01</p> <p>The 1933 M 7.5 Diexi <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is another catastrophic event with the loss of over 10 000 lives in eastern Tibet comparable to the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Because of its unknown surface rupture, the seismogenic tectonics of the 1933 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> remains controversial. We collected unpublished reports, literatures and old photos associated with the 1933 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and conducted field investigations based on high-resolution Google Earth imagery. Combined with palaeoseismological analysis, radiocarbon dating and relocated <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, our results demonstrate that the source of the 1933 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is the northwest-trending Songpinggou fault. This quake produced a > 30 km long normal-faulting surface rupture with the coseismic offset of 0.9-1.7 m. Its moment magnitude (Mw) is ˜6.8. The Songpinggou fault undergoes an average vertical slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> of ˜0.25 mm yr-1 and has a <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> interval of ˜6700 yr of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. The normal-faulting surface rupture of this quake is probably the reactivation of the Mesozoic Jiaochang tectonic belt in gravitational adjustment of eastern Tibet. Besides the major boundary faults, minor structures within continental blocks may take a role in strain partitioning of eastern Tibet and have the potential of producing large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. This study contributes to a full understanding of seismotectonics of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and strain partitioning in eastern Tibet.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.6265W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.6265W"><span>Quantified sensitivity of lakes to record historic <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>: Implications for paleoseismology</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wilhelm, Bruno; Nomade, Jerome; Crouzet, Christian; Litty, Camille; Belle, Simon; Rolland, Yann; Revel, Marie; Courboulex, Françoise; Arnaud, Fabien; Anselmetti, Flavio S.</p> <p>2015-04-01</p> <p> the sedimentation <span class="hlt">rate</span>. Indeed, an increasing sedimentation <span class="hlt">rate</span> implies an increasing sensitivity to <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> shaking with a apparent threshold of 0.5-1 mm.yr-1. To improve the paleoseismic event catalogue, further studies in small alpine-type lakes are needed. They should (i) focus on lake systems with sedimentation <span class="hlt">rates</span> ≥ 1mm.yr-1, (ii) consider inter-lakes correlation over less than 100 km for epicentral <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> MSK intensity < IX and (iii) control carefully that no significant change in sedimentation <span class="hlt">rates</span> occurs within the record, which could falsify <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>-interval assessment.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25643820','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25643820"><span><span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> and clinical outcome for dogs with grade II mast cell tumours with a low AgNOR count and Ki67 index treated with surgery alone.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Smith, J; Kiupel, M; Farrelly, J; Cohen, R; Olmsted, G; Kirpensteijn, J; Brocks, B; Post, G</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>Grade II mast cell tumours (MCT) are tumours with variable biologic behaviour. Multiple factors have been associated with outcome, including proliferation markers. The purpose of this study was to determine if extent of surgical excision affects <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> in dogs with grade II MCT with low proliferation activity, determined by Ki67 and argyrophilic nucleolar organising regions (AgNOR). Eighty-six dogs with cutaneous MCT were evaluated. All dogs had surgical excision of their MCT with a low Ki67 index and combined AgNORxKi67 (Ag67) values. Twenty-three (27%) dogs developed local or distant <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> during the median follow-up time. Of these dogs, six (7%) had local <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>, one had complete and five had incomplete histologic margins. This difference in <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> between dogs with complete and incomplete histologic margins was not significant. On the basis of this study, ancillary therapy may not be necessary for patients with incompletely excised grade II MCT with low proliferation activity. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20933644','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20933644"><span>Impact of anatomical variations of the circle of Willis on the incidence of aneurysms and their <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> following endovascular treatment.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Songsaeng, D; Geibprasert, S; Willinsky, R; Tymianski, M; TerBrugge, K G; Krings, T</p> <p>2010-11-01</p> <p>To analyse the impact of anatomical variations of the parent arteries on the incidence and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> following coil embolization of aneurysms of the anterior (AcoA), posterior communicating artery (PcoA) and basilar artery (BA) tip. Two hundred and two (96 AcoA, 67 PcoA, and 29 BA) aneurysms in 200 patients were treated with coil embolization between January 2000 and April 2008. Parent artery variations at each location were classified as: AcoA: A1 aplasia versus hypoplasia versus symmetrical size; PcoA: foetal origin versus medium versus small size, BA: cranial versus caudal versus asymmetrical fusion. The incidence of aneurysms and difference between <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> for each group were recorded on follow-up. AcoA, PcoA, and BA aneurysms were more often associated with embryonically earlier vessel wall dispositions (A1 aplasia, foetal PcoA, asymmetrical fusion). Two of these variations were also associated with aneurysm <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> following coil embolization: asymmetrical A1 segment (p=0.01), and asymmetrical BA tip (p=0.02). AcoA, PcoA, and BA tip aneurysms tend to occur more often in anatomically variant parent artery dispositions, some of which are related to aneurysm <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> following coil embolization. This may relate to a more fragile vessel disposition as it is not fully matured or to altered haemodynamics secondary to the anatomical variations. Copyright © 2010 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GSL.....4...26S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GSL.....4...26S"><span>Introduction to thematic collection "Historical and geological studies of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>"</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Satake, Kenji; Wang, Jian; Hammerl, Christa; Malik, Javed N.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>This thematic collection contains eight papers mostly presented at the 2016 AOGS meeting in Beijing. Four papers describe historical <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> studies in Europe, Japan, and China; one paper uses modern instrumental data to examine the effect of giant <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on the seismicity <span class="hlt">rate</span>; and three papers describe paleoseismological studies using tsunami deposit in Japan, marine terraces in Philippines, and active faults in Himalayas. Hammerl (Geosci Lett 4:7, 2017) introduced historical seismological studies in Austria, starting from methodology which is state of the art in most European countries, followed by a case study for an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> of July 17, 1670 in Tyrol. Albini and Rovida (Geosci Lett 3:30, 2016) examined 114 historical records for the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> on April 6, 1667 on the east coast of the Adriatic Sea, compiled 37 Macroseismic Data Points, and estimated the epicenter and the size of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Matsu'ura (Geosci Lett 4:3, 2017) summarized historical <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> studies in Japan which resulted in about 8700 Intensity Data Points, assigned epicenters for 214 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> between AD 599 and 1872, and estimated focal depth and magnitudes for 134 events. Wang et al. (Geosci Lett 4:4, 2017) introduced historical seismology in China, where historical <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> archives include about 15,000 sources, and parametric catalogs include about 1000 historical <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> between 2300 BC and AD 1911. Ishibe et al. (Geosci Lett 4:5, 2017) tested the Coulomb stress triggering hypothesis for three giant (M 9) <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> that occurred in recent years, and found that at least the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman and 2011 Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> caused the seismicity <span class="hlt">rate</span> change. Ishimura (2017) re-estimated the ages of 11 tsunami deposits in the last 4000 years along the Sanriku coast of northern Japan and found that the average <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> interval of those tsunamis as 350-390 years. Ramos et al. (2017) studied 1000-year-old marine terraces on the west coast of Luzon Island, Philippines</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018SedG..365...62L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018SedG..365...62L"><span>Sedimentary evidence of historical and prehistorical <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> along the Venta de Bravo Fault System, Acambay Graben (Central Mexico)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lacan, Pierre; Ortuño, María; Audin, Laurence; Perea, Hector; Baize, Stephane; Aguirre-Díaz, Gerardo; Zúñiga, F. Ramón</p> <p>2018-03-01</p> <p>The Venta de Bravo normal fault is one of the longest structures in the intra-arc fault system of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. It defines, together with the Pastores Fault, the 80 km long southern margin of the Acambay Graben. We focus on the westernmost segment of the Venta de Bravo Fault and provide new paleoseismological information, evaluate its <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> history, and assess the related seismic hazard. We analyzed five trenches, distributed at three different sites, in which Holocene surface faulting offsets interbedded volcanoclastic, fluvio-lacustrine and colluvial deposits. Despite the lack of known historical destructive <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> along this fault, we found evidence of at least eight <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> during the late Quaternary. Our results indicate that this is one of the major seismic sources of the Acambay Graben, capable of producing by itself <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> with magnitudes (MW) up to 6.9, with a slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> of 0.22-0.24 mm yr- 1 and a <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> interval between 1940 and 2390 years. In addition, a possible multi-fault rupture of the Venta de Bravo Fault together with other faults of the Acambay Graben could result in a MW > 7 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. These new slip <span class="hlt">rates</span>, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span>, and estimation of slips per event help advance our understanding of the seismic hazard posed by the Venta de Bravo Fault and provide new parameters for further hazard assessment.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.S23E..04G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.S23E..04G"><span>Simulation Based <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Forecasting with RSQSim</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Gilchrist, J. J.; Jordan, T. H.; Dieterich, J. H.; Richards-Dinger, K. B.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>We are developing a physics-based forecasting model for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ruptures in California. We employ the 3D boundary element code RSQSim to generate synthetic catalogs with millions of events that span up to a million years. The simulations incorporate <span class="hlt">rate</span>-state fault constitutive properties in complex, fully interacting fault systems. The Unified California <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3) model and data sets are used for calibration of the catalogs and specification of fault geometry. Fault slip <span class="hlt">rates</span> match the UCERF3 geologic slip <span class="hlt">rates</span> and catalogs are tuned such that <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> matches the UCERF3 model. Utilizing the Blue Waters Supercomputer, we produce a suite of million-year catalogs to investigate the epistemic uncertainty in the physical parameters used in the simulations. In particular, values of the <span class="hlt">rate</span>- and state-friction parameters a and b, the initial shear and normal stress, as well as the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> slip speed, are varied over several simulations. In addition to testing multiple models with homogeneous values of the physical parameters, the parameters a, b, and the normal stress are varied with depth as well as in heterogeneous patterns across the faults. Cross validation of UCERF3 and RSQSim is performed within the SCEC Collaboratory for Interseismic Simulation and Modeling (CISM) to determine the affect of the uncertainties in physical parameters observed in the field and measured in the lab, on the uncertainties in probabilistic forecasting. We are particularly interested in the short-term hazards of multi-event sequences due to complex faulting and multi-fault ruptures.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.S41C..04W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.S41C..04W"><span>Long-term changes in regular and low-frequency <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> inter-event times near Parkfield, CA</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wu, C.; Shelly, D. R.; Johnson, P. A.; Gomberg, J. S.; Peng, Z.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>The temporal evolution of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> inter-event time may provide important clues for the timing of future events and underlying physical mechanisms of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> nucleation. In this study, we examine inter-event times from 12-yr catalogs of ~50,000 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and ~730,000 LFEs in the vicinity of the Parkfield section of the San Andreas Fault. We focus on the long-term evolution of inter-event times after the 2003 Mw6.5 San Simeon and 2004 Mw6.0 Parkfield <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. We find that inter-event times decrease by ~4 orders of magnitudes after the Parkfield and San Simeon <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and are followed by a long-term recovery with time scales of ~3 years and more than 8 years for <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> along and to the southwest of the San Andreas fault, respectively. The differing long-term recovery of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> inter-event times is likely a manifestation of different aftershock recovery time scales that reflect the different tectonic loading <span class="hlt">rates</span> in the two regions. We also observe a possible decrease of LFE inter-event times in some LFE families, followed by a recovery with time scales of ~4 months to several years. The drop in the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> time of LFE after the Parkfield <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is likely caused by a combination of the dynamic and positive static stress induced by the Parkfield <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, and the long-term recovery in LFE <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> time could be due to post-seismic relaxation or gradual recovery of the fault zone material properties. Our on-going work includes better constraining and understanding the physical mechanisms responsible for the observed long-term recovery in <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and LFE inter-event times.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li class="active"><span>16</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_16 --> <div id="page_17" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li class="active"><span>17</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="321"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=neuropsychology&id=EJ962916','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=neuropsychology&id=EJ962916"><span>Is <span class="hlt">Recurrent</span> Perseveration a Product of Deafferented Functional Systems with Otherwise Normal Post-Activation Decay <span class="hlt">Rates</span>?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Buckingham, Hugh W.; Buckingham, Sarah S.</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>Recent work in neuropsychology, clinical aphasiology and neuropharmacology have presented evidence that the causative substrates of <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> perseveration in adults with aphasia are more recondite and subject to distinct interpretations than originally thought. This article will discuss and evaluate how various proposals from theory, from the…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26743873','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26743873"><span><span class="hlt">Rates</span> and predictors of remission, <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> and conversion to bipolar disorder after the first lifetime episode of depression--a prospective 5-year follow-up study.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Bukh, J D; Andersen, P K; Kessing, L V</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>In depression, non-remission, <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of depressive episodes after remission and conversion to bipolar disorder are crucial determinants of poor outcome. The present study aimed to determine the cumulative incidences and clinical predictors of these long-term outcomes after the first lifetime episode of depression. A total of 301 in- or out-patients aged 18-70 years with a validated diagnosis of a single depressive episode were assessed from 2005 to 2007. At 5 years of follow-up, 262 patients were reassessed by means of the life chart method and diagnostic interviews from 2011 to 2013. Cumulative incidences and the influence of clinical variables on the <span class="hlt">rates</span> of remission, <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> and conversion to bipolar disorder, respectively, were estimated by survival analysis techniques. Within 5 years, 83.3% obtained remission, 31.5% experienced <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of depression and 8.6% converted to bipolar disorder (6.3% within the first 2 years). Non-remission increased with younger age, co-morbid anxiety and suicidal ideations. <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> increased with severity and treatment resistance of the first depression, and conversion to bipolar disorder with treatment resistance, a family history of affective disorder and co-morbid alcohol or drug abuse. The identified clinical characteristics of the first lifetime episode of depression should guide patients and clinicians for long-term individualized tailored treatment.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19450314','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19450314"><span><span class="hlt">Recurrent</span> miscarriage.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Duckitt, Kirsten; Qureshi, Aysha</p> <p>2008-04-14</p> <p><span class="hlt">Recurrent</span> miscarriage is the spontaneous loss of three or more consecutive pregnancies with the same biological father in the first trimester, and affects 1-2% of women, half of whom have no identifiable cause. Overall, 75% of affected women will have a successful subsequent pregnancy, but this <span class="hlt">rate</span> falls for older mothers and with increasing number of miscarriages. Antiphospholipid syndrome, with anticardiolipin or lupus anticoagulant antibodies, is present in 15% of women with <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> first and second trimester miscarriage. We conducted a systematic review and aimed to answer the following clinical questions: What are the effects of treatments for unexplained <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> miscarriage? What are the effects of treatments for <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> miscarriage caused by antiphospholipid syndrome? We searched: Medline, Embase, The Cochrane Library and other important databases up to April 2007 (Clinical Evidence reviews are updated periodically, please check our website for the most up-to-date version of this review). We included harms alerts from relevant organisations such as the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA). We found 14 systematic reviews, RCTs, or observational studies that met our inclusion criteria. We performed a GRADE evaluation of the quality of evidence for interventions. In this systematic review we present information relating to the effectiveness and safety of the following interventions: aspirin (low dose), bed rest, corticosteroids, early scanning in subsequent pregnancies, heparin plus low-dose aspirin, human chorionic gonadotrophin, intravenous immunoglobulin treatment, lifestyle adaptation, oestrogen, paternal white cell immunisation, progesterone, trophoblastic membrane infusion, and vitamin supplementation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21718553','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21718553"><span><span class="hlt">Recurrent</span> miscarriage.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Duckitt, Kirsten; Qureshi, Aysha</p> <p>2011-02-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Recurrent</span> miscarriage is the spontaneous loss of three or more consecutive pregnancies with the same biological father in the first trimester, and affects 1% to 2% of women, half of whom have no identifiable cause. Overall, 75% of affected women will have a successful subsequent pregnancy, but this <span class="hlt">rate</span> falls for older mothers and with increasing number of miscarriages. Antiphospholipid syndrome, with anticardiolipin or lupus anticoagulant antibodies, is present in 15% of women with <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> first and second trimester miscarriage. We conducted a systematic review and aimed to answer the following clinical questions: What are the effects of treatments for unexplained <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> miscarriage? What are the effects of treatments for <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> miscarriage caused by antiphospholipid syndrome? We searched: Medline, Embase, The Cochrane Library, and other important databases up to January 2010 (Clinical Evidence reviews are updated periodically, please check our website for the most up-to-date version of this review). We included harms alerts from relevant organisations such as the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA). We found 14 systematic reviews, RCTs, or observational studies that met our inclusion criteria. We performed a GRADE evaluation of the quality of evidence for interventions. In this systematic review we present information relating to the effectiveness and safety of the following interventions: aspirin (low dose), bed-rest, corticosteroids, early scanning in subsequent pregnancies, heparin plus low-dose aspirin, human chorionic gonadotrophin, intravenous immunoglobulin treatment, lifestyle adaptation, oestrogen, paternal white cell immunisation, progesterone, trophoblastic membrane infusion, and vitamin supplementation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70028656','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70028656"><span>Slip on the San Andreas fault at Parkfield, California, over two <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycles, and the implications for seismic hazard</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Murray, J.; Langbein, J.</p> <p>2006-01-01</p> <p>Parkfield, California, which experienced M 6.0 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in 1934, 1966, and 2004, is one of the few locales for which geodetic observations span multiple <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycles. We undertake a comprehensive study of deformation over the most recent <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle and explore the results in the context of geodetic data collected prior to the 1966 event. Through joint inversion of the variety of Parkfield geodetic measurements (trilateration, two-color laser, and Global Positioning System), including previously unpublished two-color data, we estimate the spatial distribution of slip and slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> along the San Andreas using a fault geometry based on precisely relocated seismicity. Although the three most recent Parkfield <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> appear complementary in their along-strike distributions of slip, they do not produce uniform strain release along strike over multiple seismic cycles. Since the 1934 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, more than 1 m of slip deficit has accumulated on portions of the fault that slipped in the 1966 and 2004 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, and an average of 2 m of slip deficit exists on the 33 km of the fault southeast of Gold Hill to be released in a future, perhaps larger, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. It appears that the fault is capable of partially releasing stored strain in moderate <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, maintaining a disequilibrium through multiple <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycles. This complicates the application of simple <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> models that assume only the strain accumulated since the most recent event is relevant to the size or timing of an upcoming <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Our findings further emphasize that accumulated slip deficit is not sufficient for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> nucleation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16.2030J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16.2030J"><span>Combination of High <span class="hlt">Rate</span>, Real-time GNSS and Accelerometer Observations - Preliminary Results Using a Shake Table and Historic <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Events.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Jackson, Michael; Passmore, Paul; Zimakov, Leonid; Raczka, Jared</p> <p>2014-05-01</p> <p>One of the fundamental requirements of an <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Early Warning (EEW) system (and other mission critical applications) is to quickly detect and process the information from the strong motion event, i.e. event detection and location, magnitude estimation, and the peak ground motion estimation at the defined targeted site, thus allowing the civil protection authorities to provide pre-programmed emergency response actions: Slow down or stop rapid transit trains and high-speed trains; shutoff of gas pipelines and chemical facilities; stop elevators at the nearest floor; send alarms to hospitals, schools and other civil institutions. An important question associated with the EEW system is: can we measure displacements in real time with sufficient accuracy? Scientific GNSS networks are moving towards a model of real-time data acquisition, storage integrity, and real-time position and displacement calculations. This new paradigm allows the integration of real-time, high-<span class="hlt">rate</span> GNSS displacement information with acceleration and velocity data to create very high-<span class="hlt">rate</span> displacement records. The mating of these two instruments allows the creation of a new, very high-<span class="hlt">rate</span> (200 Hz) displacement observable that has the full-scale displacement characteristics of GNSS and high-precision dynamic motions of seismic technologies. It is envisioned that these new observables can be used for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> early warning studies and other mission critical applications, such as volcano monitoring, building, bridge and dam monitoring systems. REF TEK a Division of Trimble has developed the integrated GNSS/Accelerograph system, model 160-09SG, which consists of REF TEK's fourth generation electronics, a 147-01 high-resolution ANSS Class A accelerometer, and Trimble GNSS receiver and antenna capable of real time, on board Precise Point Positioning (PPP) techniques with satellite clock and orbit corrections delivered to the receiver directly via L-band satellite communications. The test we</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://geology.utah.gov/hazards/technical-information/paleoseismology-of-utah-series/','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://geology.utah.gov/hazards/technical-information/paleoseismology-of-utah-series/"><span>Holocene surface-faulting <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> at the Spring Lake and North Creek Sites on the Wasatch Fault Zone: Evidence for complex rupture of the Nephi Segment</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Duross, Christopher; Hylland, Michael D.; Hiscock, Adam; Personius, Stephen; Briggs, Richard; Gold, Ryan D.; Beukelman, Gregg; McDonald, Geg N; Erickson, Ben; McKean, Adam; Angster, Steve; King, Roselyn; Crone, Anthony J.; Mahan, Shannon</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>The Nephi segment of the Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) comprises two fault strands, the northern and southern strands, which have evidence of <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> late Holocene surface-faulting <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. We excavated paleoseismic trenches across these strands to refine and expand their Holocene <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> chronologies; improve estimates of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>, displacement, and fault slip <span class="hlt">rate</span>; and assess whether the strands rupture separately or synchronously in large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Paleoseismic data from the Spring Lake site expand the Holocene record of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on the northern strand: at least five to seven <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> ruptured the Spring Lake site at 0.9 ± 0.2 ka (2σ), 2.9 ± 0.7 ka, 4.0 ± 0.5 ka, 4.8 ± 0.8 ka, 5.7 ± 0.8 ka, 6.6 ± 0.7 ka, and 13.1 ± 4.0 ka, yielding a Holocene mean <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of ~1.2–1.5 kyr and vertical slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> of ~0.5–0.8 mm/yr. Paleoseismic data from the North Creek site help refine the Holocene <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> chronology for the southern strand: at least five <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> ruptured the North Creek site at 0.2 ± 0.1 ka (2σ), 1.2 ± 0.1 ka, 2.6 ± 0.9 ka, 4.0 ± 0.1 ka, and 4.7 ± 0.7 ka, yielding a mean <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of 1.1–1.3 kyr and vertical slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> of ~1.9–2.0 mm/yr. We compare these Spring Lake and North Creek data with previous paleoseismic data for the Nephi segment and report late Holocene mean <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> intervals of ~1.0–1.2 kyr for the northern strand and ~1.1–1.3 kyr for the southern strand. The northern and southern strands have similar late Holocene <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> histories, which allow for models of both independent and synchronous rupture. However, considering the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> timing probabilities and per-event vertical displacements, we have the greatest confidence in the simultaneous rupture of the strands, including rupture of one strand with spillover rupture to the other. Ultimately, our results improve the surface-faulting <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> history of the Nephi segment and enhance our understanding of how structural barriers</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1437/b/','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1437/b/"><span><span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> Interval and Event Age Data for Type A Faults</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Dawson, Timothy E.; Weldon, Ray J.; Biasi, Glenn P.</p> <p>2008-01-01</p> <p>This appendix summarizes available <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> interval, event age, and timing of most recent event data for Type A faults considered in the <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Rate</span> Model 2 (ERM 2) and used in the ERM 2 Appendix C analysis as well as Appendix N (time-dependent probabilities). These data have been compiled into an Excel workbook named Appendix B A-fault event ages_<span class="hlt">recurrence</span>_V5.0 (herein referred to as the Appendix B workbook). For convenience, the Appendix B workbook is attached to the end of this document as a series of tables. The tables within the Appendix B workbook include site locations, event ages, and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> data, and in some cases, the interval of time between <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> is also reported. The Appendix B workbook is organized as individual worksheets, with each worksheet named by fault and paleoseismic site. Each worksheet contains the site location in latitude and longitude, as well as information on event ages, and a summary of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> data. Because the data has been compiled from different sources with different presentation styles, descriptions of the contents of each worksheet within the Appendix B spreadsheet are summarized.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012NHESS..12.3191N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012NHESS..12.3191N"><span>Great <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> along the Western United States continental margin: implications for hazards, stratigraphy and turbidite lithology</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Nelson, C. H.; Gutiérrez Pastor, J.; Goldfinger, C.; Escutia, C.</p> <p>2012-11-01</p> <p>We summarize the importance of great <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (Mw ≳ 8) for hazards, stratigraphy of basin floors, and turbidite lithology along the active tectonic continental margins of the Cascadia subduction zone and the northern San Andreas Transform Fault by utilizing studies of swath bathymetry visual core descriptions, grain size analysis, X-ray radiographs and physical properties. <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> times of Holocene turbidites as proxies for <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on the Cascadia and northern California margins are analyzed using two methods: (1) radiometric dating (14C method), and (2) relative dating, using hemipelagic sediment thickness and sedimentation <span class="hlt">rates</span> (H method). The H method provides (1) the best estimate of minimum <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> times, which are the most important for seismic hazards risk analysis, and (2) the most complete dataset of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> times, which shows a normal distribution pattern for paleoseismic turbidite frequencies. We observe that, on these tectonically active continental margins, during the sea-level highstand of Holocene time, triggering of turbidity currents is controlled dominantly by <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, and paleoseismic turbidites have an average <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> time of ~550 yr in northern Cascadia Basin and ~200 yr along northern California margin. The minimum <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> times for great <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are approximately 300 yr for the Cascadia subduction zone and 130 yr for the northern San Andreas Fault, which indicates both fault systems are in (Cascadia) or very close (San Andreas) to the early window for another great <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. On active tectonic margins with great <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, the volumes of mass transport deposits (MTDs) are limited on basin floors along the margins. The maximum run-out distances of MTD sheets across abyssal-basin floors along active margins are an order of magnitude less (~100 km) than on passive margins (~1000 km). The great <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> along the Cascadia and northern California margins cause seismic strengthening of the sediment, which</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70099205','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70099205"><span>Triggering of repeating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in central California</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Wu, Chunquan; Gomberg, Joan; Ben-Naim, Eli; Johnson, Paul</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Dynamic stresses carried by transient seismic waves have been found capable of triggering <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> instantly in various tectonic settings. Delayed triggering may be even more common, but the mechanisms are not well understood. Catalogs of repeating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> that recur repeatedly at the same location, provide ideal data sets to test the effects of transient dynamic perturbations on the timing of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence. Here we employ a catalog of 165 families containing ~2500 total repeating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> to test whether dynamic perturbations from local, regional, and teleseismic <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> change <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> intervals. The distance to the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> generating the perturbing waves is a proxy for the relative potential contributions of static and dynamic deformations, because static deformations decay more rapidly with distance. Clear changes followed the nearby 2004 Mw6 Parkfield <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, so we study only repeaters prior to its origin time. We apply a Monte Carlo approach to compare the observed number of shortened <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> intervals following dynamic perturbations with the distribution of this number estimated for randomized perturbation times. We examine the comparison for a series of dynamic stress peak amplitude and distance thresholds. The results suggest a weak correlation between dynamic perturbations in excess of ~20 kPa and shortened <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> intervals, for both nearby and remote perturbations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70029523','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70029523"><span>Significance of stress transfer in time-dependent <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> probability calculations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Parsons, T.</p> <p>2005-01-01</p> <p>A sudden change in stress is seen to modify <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span>, but should it also revise <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> probability? Data used to derive input parameters permits an array of forecasts; so how large a static stress change is require to cause a statistically significant <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> probability change? To answer that question, effects of parameter and philosophical choices are examined through all phases of sample calculations, Drawing at random from distributions of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>-aperiodicity pairs identifies many that recreate long paleoseismic and historic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalogs. Probability density funtions built from the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>-aperiodicity pairs give the range of possible <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> forecasts under a point process renewal model. Consequences of choices made in stress transfer calculations, such as different slip models, fault rake, dip, and friction are, tracked. For interactions among large faults, calculated peak stress changes may be localized, with most of the receiving fault area changed less than the mean. Thus, to avoid overstating probability change on segments, stress change values should be drawn from a distribution reflecting the spatial pattern rather than using the segment mean. Disparity resulting from interaction probability methodology is also examined. For a fault with a well-understood <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> history, a minimum stress change to stressing <span class="hlt">rate</span> ratio of 10:1 to 20:1 is required to significantly skew probabilities with >80-85% confidence. That ratio must be closer to 50:1 to exceed 90-95% confidence levels. Thus revision to <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> probability is achievable when a perturbing event is very close to the fault in question or the tectonic stressing <span class="hlt">rate</span> is low.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22416516-intraoperative-radiation-therapy-reduces-local-recurrence-rates-patients-microscopically-involved-circumferential-resection-margins-after-resection-oflocally-advanced-rectal-cancer','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22416516-intraoperative-radiation-therapy-reduces-local-recurrence-rates-patients-microscopically-involved-circumferential-resection-margins-after-resection-oflocally-advanced-rectal-cancer"><span>Intraoperative Radiation Therapy Reduces Local <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">Rates</span> in Patients With Microscopically Involved Circumferential Resection Margins After Resection of Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Alberda, Wijnand J.; Verhoef, Cornelis; Nuyttens, Joost J.</p> <p></p> <p>Purpose: Intraoperative radiation therapy (IORT) is advocated by some for patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) who have involved or narrow circumferential resection margins (CRM) after rectal surgery. This study evaluates the potentially beneficial effect of IORT on local control. Methods and Materials: All surgically treated patients with LARC treated in a tertiary referral center between 1996 and 2012 were analyzed retrospectively. The outcome in patients treated with IORT with a clear but narrow CRM (≤2 mm) or a microscopically involved CRM was compared with the outcome in patients who were not treated with IORT. Results: A total of 409 patients underwent resectionmore » of LARC, and 95 patients (23%) had a CRM ≤ 2 mm. Four patients were excluded from further analysis because of a macroscopically involved resection margin. In 43 patients with clear but narrow CRMs, there was no difference in the cumulative 5-year local <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>-free survival of patients treated with (n=21) or without (n=22) IORT (70% vs 79%, P=.63). In 48 patients with a microscopically involved CRM, there was a significant difference in the cumulative 5-year local <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>-free survival in favor of the patients treated with IORT (n=31) compared with patients treated without IORT (n=17) (84 vs 41%, P=.01). Multivariable analysis confirmed that IORT was independently associated with a decreased local <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> (hazard ratio 0.24, 95% confidence interval 0.07-0.86). There was no significant difference in complication <span class="hlt">rate</span> of patients treated with or without IORT (65% vs 52%, P=.18) Conclusion: The current study suggests that IORT reduces local <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> in patients with LARC with a microscopically involved CRM.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFM.T12A..01R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFM.T12A..01R"><span>On the feedback between forearc morphotectonics and megathrust <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in subduction zones</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Rosenau, M.; Oncken, O.</p> <p>2008-12-01</p> <p>An increasing number of observations suggest an intrinsic relationship between short- and long-term deformation processes in subduction zones. These include the global correlation between megathrust <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> slip patterns with morphotectonic forearc features, the historical predominance of giant <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (M > 9) along accretionary margins and the occurrence of (slow and shallow) tsunami <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> along erosive margins. To gain insight into the interplay between seismogenesis and tectonics in subduction settings we have developed a new modeling technique which joins analog and elastic dislocation approaches. Using elastoplastic wedges overlying a <span class="hlt">rate</span>- and state-dependent interface, we demonstrate how analog <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> drive permanent wedge deformation consistent with the dynamic Coulomb wedge theory and how wedge deformation in turn controls basal "seismicity". During an experimental run, elastoplastic wedges evolve from those comparable to accretionary margins, characterized by plastic wedge shortening, to those mimicking erosive margins, characterized by minor plastic deformation. Permanent shortening localizes at the periphery of the "seismogenic" zone leading to a "morphotectonic" segmentation of the upper plate. Along with the evolving segmentation of the wedge, the magnitude- frequency relationship and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> distribution of analog <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> develop towards more periodic events of similar size (i.e. characteristic <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>). From the experiments we infer a positive feedback between short- and long-term deformation processes which tends to stabilize the spatiotemporal patterns of elastoplastic deformation in subduction settings. We suggest (1) that forearc anatomy reflects the distribution of seismic and aseismic slip at depth, (2) that morphotectonic segmentation assists the occurrence of more characteristic <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, (3) that postseismic near-trench shortening relaxes coseismic compression by megathrust <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and thus reduces</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70024397','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70024397"><span>The <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> potential of the New Madrid seismic zone</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Tuttle, Martitia P.; Schweig, Eugene S.; Sims, John D.; Lafferty, Robert H.; Wolf, Lorraine W.; Haynes, Marion L.</p> <p>2002-01-01</p> <p>The fault system responsible for New Madrid seismicity has generated temporally clustered very large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in A.D. 900 ± 100 years and A.D. 1450 ± 150 years as well as in 1811–1812. Given the uncertainties in dating liquefaction features, the time between the past three New Madrid events may be as short as 200 years and as long as 800 years, with an average of 500 years. This advance in understanding the Late Holocene history of the New Madrid seismic zone and thus, the contemporary tectonic behavior of the associated fault system was made through studies of hundreds of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-induced liquefaction features at more than 250 sites across the New Madrid region. We have found evidence that prehistoric sand blows, like those that formed during the 1811–1812 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, are probably compound structures resulting from multiple <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> closely clustered in time or <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequences. From the spatial distribution and size of sand blows and their sedimentary units, we infer the source zones and estimate the magnitudes of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> within each sequence and thereby characterize the detailed behavior of the fault system. It appears that fault rupture was complex and that the central branch of the seismic zone produced very large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> during the A.D. 900 and A.D. 1450 events as well as in 1811–1812. On the basis of a minimum <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> of 200 years, we are now entering the period during which the next 1811–1812-type event could occur.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70037700','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70037700"><span>Evidence for a twelfth large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> on the southern hayward fault in the past 1900 years</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Lienkaemper, J.J.; Williams, P.L.; Guilderson, T.P.</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>We present age and stratigraphic evidence for an additional paleoearthquake at the Tyson Lagoon site. The acquisition of 19 additional radiocarbon dates and the inclusion of this additional event has resolved a large age discrepancy in our earlier <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> chronology. The age of event E10 was previously poorly constrained, thus increasing the uncertainty in the mean <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> interval (RI), a critical factor in seismic hazard evaluation. Reinspection of many trench logs revealed substantial evidence suggesting that an additional <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurred between E10 and E9 within unit u45. Strata in older u45 are faulted in the main fault zone and overlain by scarp colluviums in two locations.We conclude that an additional surfacerupturing event (E9.5) occurred between E9 and E10. Since 91 A.D. (??40 yr, 1??), 11 paleoearthquakes preceded the M 6:8 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in 1868, yielding a mean RI of 161 ?? 65 yr (1??, standard deviation of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> intervals). However, the standard error of the mean (SEM) is well determined at ??10 yr. Since ~1300 A.D., the mean <span class="hlt">rate</span> has increased slightly, but is indistinguishable from the overall <span class="hlt">rate</span> within the uncertainties. <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> for the 12-event sequence seems fairly regular: the coefficient of variation is 0.40, and it yields a 30-yr <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> probability of 29%. The apparent regularity in timing implied by this <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> chronology lends support for the use of time-dependent renewal models rather than assuming a random process to forecast <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, at least for the southern Hayward fault.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70030759','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70030759"><span>Paleoearthquakes on the southern San Andreas Fault, Wrightwood, California, 3000 to 1500 B.C.: A new method for evaluating paleoseismic evidence and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> horizons</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Scharer, K.M.; Weldon, R.J.; Fumal, T.E.; Biasi, G.P.</p> <p>2007-01-01</p> <p>We present evidence of 11-14 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> that occurred between 3000 and 1500 B.C. on the San Andreas fault at the Wrightwood paleoseismic site. <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> evidence is presented in a novel form in which we rank (high, moderate, poor, or low) the quality of all evidence of ground deformation, which are called "event indicators." Event indicator quality reflects our confidence that the morphologic and sedimentologic evidence can be attributable to a ground-deforming <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and that the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> horizon is accurately identified by the morphology of the feature. In four vertical meters of section exposed in ten trenches, we document 316 event indicators attributable to 32 separate stratigraphic horizons. Each stratigraphic horizon is evaluated based on the sum of rank (Rs), maximum rank (Rm), average rank (Ra), number of observations (Obs), and sum of higher-quality event indicators (Rs>1). Of the 32 stratigraphic horizons, 14 contain 83% of the event indicators and are qualified based on the number and quality of event indicators; the remaining 18 do not have satisfactory evidence for further consideration. Eleven of the 14 stratigraphic horizons have sufficient number and quality of event indicators to be qualified as "probable" to "very likely" <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>; the remaining three stratigraphic horizons are associated with somewhat ambiguous features and are qualified as "possible" <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Although no single measurement defines an obvious threshold for designation as an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> horizon, Rs, Rm, and Rs>1 correlate best with the interpreted <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> quality. <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> age distributions are determined from radio-carbon ages of peat samples using a Bayesian approach to layer dating. The average <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> interval for the 10 consecutive and highest-quality <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> is 111 (93-131) years and individual intervals are ??50% of the average. With comparison with the previously published 14-15 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> record between A.D. 500 and present, we find no evidence</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=ptsd+OR+post+AND+traumatic+AND+stress+AND+disorder&pg=6&id=EJ690549','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=ptsd+OR+post+AND+traumatic+AND+stress+AND+disorder&pg=6&id=EJ690549"><span>The Dose of Exposure and Prevalence <span class="hlt">Rates</span> of Post Traumatic Stress Disorder in a Sample of Turkish Children Eleven Months After the 1999 Marmara <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Bulut, Sefa; Bulut, Solmaz; Tayli, Asli</p> <p>2005-01-01</p> <p>Since Turkey is a centrally prime <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> zone, Turkey's children are at risk for developing Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) caused by <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> exposures and threats of anticipated <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Given the gaps in the literature and the risk to children living in Turkey, the present study was undertaken to investigate the severity and…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..11.6648E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..11.6648E"><span>Turkish Compulsory <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Insurance (TCIP)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Erdik, M.; Durukal, E.; Sesetyan, K.</p> <p>2009-04-01</p> <p>Through a World Bank project a government-sponsored Turkish Catastrophic Insurance Pool (TCIP) is created in 2000 with the essential aim of transferring the government's financial burden of replacing <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-damaged housing to international reinsurance and capital markets. Providing coverage to about 2.9 Million homeowners TCIP is the largest insurance program in the country with about 0.5 Billion USD in its own reserves and about 2.3 Billion USD in total claims paying capacity. The total payment for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> damage since 2000 (mostly small, 226 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>) amounts to about 13 Million USD. The country-wide penetration <span class="hlt">rate</span> is about 22%, highest in the Marmara region (30%) and lowest in the south-east Turkey (9%). TCIP is the sole-source provider of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> loss coverage up to 90,000 USD per house. The annual premium, categorized on the basis of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> zones type of structure, is about US90 for a 100 square meter reinforced concrete building in the most hazardous zone with 2% deductible. The <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> engineering related shortcomings of the TCIP is exemplified by fact that the average <span class="hlt">rate</span> of 0.13% (for reinforced concrete buildings) with only 2% deductible is rather low compared to countries with similar <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> exposure. From an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> engineering point of view the risk underwriting (Typification of housing units to be insured, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> intensity zonation and the sum insured) of the TCIP needs to be overhauled. Especially for large cities, models can be developed where its expected <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> performance (and consequently the insurance premium) can be can be assessed on the basis of the location of the unit (microzoned <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard) and basic structural attributes (<span class="hlt">earthquake</span> vulnerability relationships). With such an approach, in the future the TCIP can contribute to the control of construction through differentiation of premia on the basis of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> vulnerability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/21436067-treatment-results-postoperative-radiotherapy-squamous-cell-carcinoma-oral-cavity-coexistence-multiple-minor-risk-factors-results-higher-recurrence-rates','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/21436067-treatment-results-postoperative-radiotherapy-squamous-cell-carcinoma-oral-cavity-coexistence-multiple-minor-risk-factors-results-higher-recurrence-rates"><span>Treatment Results of Postoperative Radiotherapy on Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Oral Cavity: Coexistence of Multiple Minor Risk Factors Results in Higher <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">Rates</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Fan, Kang-Hsing; Taipei Chang Gung Head and Neck Oncology Group, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taiwan; Graduate Institute of Clinical Medical Sciences, Taiwan</p> <p>2010-07-15</p> <p>Purpose: The aim of this study was to investigate the treatment results of postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) on squamous cell carcinoma of the oral cavity (OSCC). Materials and Methods: This study included 302 OSCC patients who were treated by radical surgery and PORT. Indications for PORT include Stage III or IV OSCC according to the 2002 criteria of the American Joint Committee on Cancer, the presence of perineural invasion or lymphatic invasion, the depth of tumor invasion, or a close surgical margin. Patients with major risk factors, such as multiple nodal metastases, a positive surgical margin, or extracapsular spreading, were excluded.more » The prescribed dose of PORT ranged from 59.4 to 66.6Gy (median, 63Gy). Results: The 3-year overall and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>-free survival <span class="hlt">rates</span> were 73% and 70%, respectively. Univariate analysis revealed that differentiation, perineural invasion, lymphatic invasion, bone invasion, location (hard palate and retromolar trigone), invasion depths {>=}10mm, and margin distances {<=}4mm were significant prognostic factors. The presence of multiple significant factors of univariate analysis correlated with disease <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. The 3-year <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>-free survival <span class="hlt">rates</span> were 82%, 76%, and 45% for patients with no risk factors, one or two risk factors, and three or more risk factors, respectively. After multivariate analysis, the number of risk factors and lymphatic invasion were significant prognostic factors. Conclusion: PORT may be an adequate adjuvant therapy for OSCC patients with one or two risk factors of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. The presence of multiple risk factors and lymphatic invasion correlated with poor prognosis, and more aggressive treatment may need to be considered.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70027839','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70027839"><span>Predecessors of the giant 1960 Chile <span class="hlt">earthquake</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Cisternas, M.; Atwater, B.F.; Torrejon, F.; Sawai, Y.; Machuca, G.; Lagos, M.; Eipert, A.; Youlton, C.; Salgado, I.; Kamataki, T.; Shishikura, M.; Rajendran, C.P.; Malik, J.K.; Rizal, Y.; Husni, M.</p> <p>2005-01-01</p> <p>It is commonly thought that the longer the time since last <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, the larger the next <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>'s slip will be. But this logical predictor of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> size, unsuccessful for large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on a strike-slip fault, fails also with the giant 1960 Chile <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> of magnitude 9.5 (ref. 3). Although the time since the preceding <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> spanned 123 years (refs 4, 5), the estimated slip in 1960, which occurred on a fault between the Nazca and South American tectonic plates, equalled 250-350 years' worth of the plate motion. Thus the average interval between such giant <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on this fault should span several centuries. Here we present evidence that such long intervals were indeed typical of the last two millennia. We use buried soils and sand layers as records of tectonic subsidence and tsunami inundation at an estuary midway along the 1960 rupture. In these records, the 1960 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ended a <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> interval that had begun almost four centuries before, with an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> documented by Spanish conquistadors in 1575. Two later <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, in 1737 and 1837, produced little if any subsidence or tsunami at the estuary and they therefore probably left the fault partly loaded with accumulated plate motion that the 1960 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> then expended. ?? 2005 Nature Publishing Group.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li class="active"><span>17</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_17 --> <div id="page_18" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li class="active"><span>18</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="341"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16163355','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16163355"><span>Predecessors of the giant 1960 Chile <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Cisternas, Marco; Atwater, Brian F; Torrejón, Fernando; Sawai, Yuki; Machuca, Gonzalo; Lagos, Marcelo; Eipert, Annaliese; Youlton, Cristián; Salgado, Ignacio; Kamataki, Takanobu; Shishikura, Masanobu; Rajendran, C P; Malik, Javed K; Rizal, Yan; Husni, Muhammad</p> <p>2005-09-15</p> <p>It is commonly thought that the longer the time since last <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, the larger the next <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>'s slip will be. But this logical predictor of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> size, unsuccessful for large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on a strike-slip fault, fails also with the giant 1960 Chile <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> of magnitude 9.5 (ref. 3). Although the time since the preceding <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> spanned 123 years (refs 4, 5), the estimated slip in 1960, which occurred on a fault between the Nazca and South American tectonic plates, equalled 250-350 years' worth of the plate motion. Thus the average interval between such giant <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on this fault should span several centuries. Here we present evidence that such long intervals were indeed typical of the last two millennia. We use buried soils and sand layers as records of tectonic subsidence and tsunami inundation at an estuary midway along the 1960 rupture. In these records, the 1960 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ended a <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> interval that had begun almost four centuries before, with an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> documented by Spanish conquistadors in 1575. Two later <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, in 1737 and 1837, produced little if any subsidence or tsunami at the estuary and they therefore probably left the fault partly loaded with accumulated plate motion that the 1960 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> then expended.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70035833','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70035833"><span>Late Holocene slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> of the San Andreas fault and its accommodation by creep and moderate-magnitude <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> at Parkfield, California</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Toke, N.A.; Arrowsmith, J.R.; Rymer, M.J.; Landgraf, A.; Haddad, D.E.; Busch, M.; Coyan, J.; Hannah, A.</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>Investigation of a right-laterally offset channel at the Miller's Field paleoseismic site yields a late Holocene slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> of 26.2 +6.4/-4.3 mm/yr (1??) for the main trace of the San Andreas fault at Park-field, California. This is the first well-documented geologic slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> between the Carrizo and creeping sections of the San Andreas fault. This <span class="hlt">rate</span> is lower than Holocene measurements along the Carrizo Plain and <span class="hlt">rates</span> implied by far-field geodetic measurements (~35 mm/yr). However, the <span class="hlt">rate</span> is consistent with historical slip <span class="hlt">rates</span>, measured to the northwest, along the creeping section of the San Andreas fault (<30 mm/yr). The paleoseismic exposures at the Miller's Field site reveal a pervasive fabric of clay shear bands, oriented clockwise oblique to the San Andreas fault strike and extending into the upper-most stratigraphy. This fabric is consistent with dextral aseismic creep and observations of surface slip from the 28 September 2004 M6 Parkfield <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Together, this slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> and deformation fabric suggest that the historically observed San Andreas fault slip behavior along the Parkfield section has persisted for at least a millennium, and that significant slip is accommodated by structures in a zone beyond the main San Andreas fault trace. ?? 2011 Geological Society of America.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/7271755-new-madrid-seismic-zone-recurrence-intervals','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/7271755-new-madrid-seismic-zone-recurrence-intervals"><span>New Madrid seismic zone <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> intervals</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Schweig, E.S.; Ellis, M.A.</p> <p>1993-03-01</p> <p>Frequency-magnitude relations in the New Madrid seismic zone suggest that great <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> should occur every 700--1,200 yrs, implying relatively high strain <span class="hlt">rates</span>. These estimates are supported by some geological and GPS results. <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> intervals of this order should have produced about 50 km of strike-slip offset since Miocene time. No subsurface evidence for such large displacements is known within the seismic zone. Moreover, the irregular fault pattern forming a compressive step that one sees today is not compatible with large displacements. There are at least three possible interpretations of the observations of short <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> intervals and high strain <span class="hlt">rates</span>, butmore » apparently youthful fault geometry and lack of major post-Miocene deformation. One is that the seismological and geodetic evidence are misleading. A second possibility is that activity in the region is cyclic. That is, the geological and geodetic observations that suggest relatively short <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> intervals reflect a time of high, but geologically temporary, pore-fluid pressure. Zoback and Zoback have suggested such a model for intraplate seismicity in general. Alternatively, the New Madrid seismic zone is geologically young feature that has been active for only the last few tens of thousands of years. In support of this, observe an irregular fault geometry associated with a unstable compressive step, a series of en echelon and discontinuous lineaments that may define the position of a youthful linking fault, and the general absence of significant post-Eocene faulting or topography.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoRL..43..161G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoRL..43..161G"><span>Real-time capture of seismic waves using high-<span class="hlt">rate</span> multi-GNSS observations: Application to the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal <span class="hlt">earthquake</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Geng, Tao; Xie, Xin; Fang, Rongxin; Su, Xing; Zhao, Qile; Liu, Gang; Li, Heng; Shi, Chuang; Liu, Jingnan</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>The variometric approach is investigated to measure real-time seismic waves induced by the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> with high-<span class="hlt">rate</span> multi-GNSS observations, especially with the contribution of newly available BDS. The velocity estimation using GPS + BDS shows an additional improvement of around 20% with respect to GPS-only solutions. We also reconstruct displacements by integrating GNSS-derived velocities after a linear trend removal (IGV). The displacement waveforms with accuracy of better than 5 cm are derived when postprocessed GPS precise point positioning results are used as ground truth, even if those stations have strong ground motions and static offsets of up to 1-2 m. GNSS-derived velocity and displacement waveforms with the variometric approach are in good agreement with results from strong motion data. We therefore conclude that it is feasible to capture real-time seismic waves with multi-GNSS observations using the IGV-enhanced variometric approach, which has critical implications for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> early warning, tsunami forecasting, and rapid hazard assessment.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70022764','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70022764"><span><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> stress drop and laboratory-inferred interseismic strength recovery</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Beeler, N.M.; Hickman, S.H.; Wong, T.-F.</p> <p>2001-01-01</p> <p>We determine the scaling relationships between <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> stress drop and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> interval tr that are implied by laboratory-measured fault strength. We assume that repeating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> can be simulated by stick-slip sliding using a spring and slider block model. Simulations with static/kinetic strength, time-dependent strength, and <span class="hlt">rate</span>- and state-variable-dependent strength indicate that the relationship between loading velocity and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> interval can be adequately described by the power law VL ??? trn, where n=-1. Deviations from n=-1 arise from second order effects on strength, with n>-1 corresponding to apparent time-dependent strengthening and n<-1 corresponding to weakening. Simulations with <span class="hlt">rate</span> and state-variable equations show that dynamic shear stress drop ????d scales with <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> as d????d/dlntr ??? ??e(b-a), where ??e is the effective normal stress, ??=??/??e, and (a-b)=d??ss/dlnV is the steady-state slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> dependence of strength. In addition, accounting for seismic energy radiation, we suggest that the static shear stress drop ????s scales as d????s/dlntr ??? ??e(1+??)(b-a), where ?? is the fractional overshoot. The variation of ????s with lntr for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> stress drops is somewhat larger than implied by room temperature laboratory values of ?? and b-a. However, the uncertainty associated with the seismic data is large and the discrepancy between the seismic observations and the <span class="hlt">rate</span> of strengthening predicted by room temperature experiments is less than an order of magnitude. Copyright 2001 by the American Geophysical Union.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=continental+AND+drift&pg=2&id=EJ211635','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=continental+AND+drift&pg=2&id=EJ211635"><span><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Hazards.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Donovan, Neville</p> <p>1979-01-01</p> <p>Provides a survey and a review of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> activity and global tectonics from the advancement of the theory of continental drift to the present. Topics include: an identification of the major seismic regions of the earth, seismic measurement techniques, seismic design criteria for buildings, and the prediction of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. (BT)</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/146985','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/146985"><span>Analog <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Hofmann, R.B.</p> <p>1995-09-01</p> <p>Analogs are used to understand complex or poorly understood phenomena for which little data may be available at the actual repository site. <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> are complex phenomena, and they can have a large number of effects on the natural system, as well as on engineered structures. Instrumental data close to the source of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are rarely obtained. The rare events for which measurements are available may be used, with modfications, as analogs for potential large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> at sites where no <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> data are available. In the following, several examples of nuclear reactor and liquified natural gas facility siting are discussed.more » A potential use of analog <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> is proposed for a high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repository.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.4258R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.4258R"><span>A fault slip model of the 2016 Meinong, Taiwan, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> from near-source strong motion and high-<span class="hlt">rate</span> GPS waveforms</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Rau, Ruey-Juin; Wen, Yi-Ying; Tseng, Po-Ching; Chen, Wei-Cheng; Cheu, Chi-Yu; Hsieh, Min-Che; Ching, Kuo-En</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>The 6 February 2016 MW 6.5 Meinong <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (03:57:26.1 local time) occurred at about 30 km ESE of the Tainan city with a focal depth of 14.6 km. It is a mid-crust moderate-sized event, however, produced widespread strong shaking in the 30-km-away Tainan city and caused about 10 buildings collapsed and 117 death. Furthermore, the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> created a 20 x 10 km2 dome-shaped structure with a maximum uplift of 13 cm in between the epicenter and the Tainan city. We collected 81 50-Hz GPS and 130 strong motion data recorded within 60 km epicentral distances. High-<span class="hlt">rate</span> GPS data are processed with GIPSY 6.4 and the calculated GPS displacement wavefield record section shows 40-60 cm Peak Ground Displacement (PGD) concentrated at 25-30 km WNW of the epicenter. The large PGDs correspond to 65-85 cm/sec PGV, which are significantly larger than the near-fault ground motion collected from moderate-sized <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> occurred worldwide. To investigate the source properties of the causative fault, considering the azimuthal coverage and data quality, we selected waveform data from 10 50-Hz GPS stations and 10 free-field 200-Hz strong motion stations to invert for the finite source parameters using the non-negative least squares approach. A bandpass filter of 0.05-0.5 Hz is applied to both high-<span class="hlt">rate</span> GPS data and strong motion data, with sampling <span class="hlt">rate</span> of 0.1 sec. The fault plane parameters (strike 281 degrees, dip 24 degrees) derived from Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) are used in the finite fault inversion. The results of our joint GPS and strong motion data inversion indicates two major slip patches. The first large-slip patch occurred just below the hypocenter propagating westward at a 15-25 km depth range. The second high-slip patch appeared at 5-10 km depth slipping westward under the western side of the erected structure shown by InSAR image. These two large-slip patches appeared to devoid of aftershock seismicity, which concentrated mainly at the low-slip zones.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24343461','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24343461"><span>Proximal gastrectomy versus total gastrectomy for proximal gastric carcinoma. A meta-analysis on postoperative complications, 5-year survival, and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Pu, Yu-Wei; Gong, Wei; Wu, Yong-You; Chen, Qiang; He, Teng-Fei; Xing, Chun-Gen</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>To compare proximal gastrectomy (PG) with total gastrectomy (TG) for proximal gastric carcinoma, through the 5-year survival <span class="hlt">rate</span>, <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span>, postoperative complications, and long-term life quality. The meta-analysis was carried out in the General Surgery Department of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, China. We searched Medline, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library from June to November 2012. The literature searches were carried out using medical subject headings and free-text word: `proximal gastrectomy` `total gastrectomy` `partial gastrectomy` `stomach neoplasms` and `gastric cancer`. Two different reviewers carried out the search and evaluated studies independently. Two randomized controlled trials and 9 retrospective studies were included. A total of 1364 patients were included in our study. Our analysis showed that there is no statistically significant difference in 5-year survival <span class="hlt">rate</span> between PG and TG (60.9% versus 64.4%). But, the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> is higher in the PG group than the TG (38.7% versus 24.4%). The anastomotic stenosis <span class="hlt">rate</span> is also higher in the PG than the TG (27.4% versus 7.4%). Proximal gastrectomy is an option for upper third gastric cancer in terms of safety. However, it is associated with high risk of reflux symptoms and anastomotic stenosis. Therefore, TG should be the first choice for proximal gastric cancer to prevent reflux symptoms.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29458969','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29458969"><span>Hospital readmission following open, single-stage, elective abdominal wall reconstructions using acellular dermal matrix affects long-term hernia <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Giordano, Salvatore A; Garvey, Patrick B; Baumann, Donald P; Liu, Jun; Butler, Charles E</p> <p>2018-02-05</p> <p>We evaluated the incidence of and the risk factors for readmission in patients who underwent abdominal wall reconstruction (AWR) using acellular dermal matrix (ADM) and assess whether readmission affects AWR long-term outcomes. A retrospective, single-center study of patients underwent AWR with ADM was conducted. The primary outcome was the incidence of unplanned readmission within 30 days after the initial discharge post-AWR. Secondary outcomes were surgical site occurrence (SSO) and hernia <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> at follow-up. Of 452 patients (mean age, 59 years; mean follow-up, 35 months), 29 (6.4%) were readmitted within 30 days. Most readmissions were due to SSO (44.8%) or wound infections (12.8%). The hernia <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> was significantly higher in readmitted patients (17.2% vs 9.9%; P = 0.044). Wider defects, prolonged operative time, and coronary artery disease were independent predictors of readmission. Readmission is associated with hernia <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> on long-term follow-up. SSO is the most common cause for readmission. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..11.6654D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..11.6654D"><span>Turkish Compulsory <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Insurance and "Istanbul <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Durukal, E.; Sesetyan, K.; Erdik, M.</p> <p>2009-04-01</p> <p>The city of Istanbul will likely experience substantial direct and indirect losses as a result of a future large (M=7+) <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> with an annual probability of occurrence of about 2%. This paper dwells on the expected building losses in terms of probable maximum and average annualized losses and discusses the results from the perspective of the compulsory <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> insurance scheme operational in the country. The TCIP system is essentially designed to operate in Turkey with sufficient penetration to enable the accumulation of funds in the pool. Today, with only 20% national penetration, and about approximately one-half of all policies in highly <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> prone areas (one-third in Istanbul) the system exhibits signs of adverse selection, inadequate premium structure and insufficient funding. Our findings indicate that the national compulsory <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> insurance pool in Turkey will face difficulties in covering incurring building losses in Istanbul in the occurrence of a large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The annualized <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> losses in Istanbul are between 140-300 million. Even if we assume that the deductible is raised to 15%, the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> losses that need to be paid after a large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in Istanbul will be at about 2.5 Billion, somewhat above the current capacity of the TCIP. Thus, a modification to the system for the insured in Istanbul (or Marmara region) is necessary. This may mean an increase in the premia and deductible <span class="hlt">rates</span>, purchase of larger re-insurance covers and development of a claim processing system. Also, to avoid adverse selection, the penetration <span class="hlt">rates</span> elsewhere in Turkey need to be increased substantially. A better model would be introduction of parametric insurance for Istanbul. By such a model the losses will not be indemnified, however will be directly calculated on the basis of indexed ground motion levels and damages. The immediate improvement of a parametric insurance model over the existing one will be the elimination of the claim processing</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27810091','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27810091"><span>Primary fascial closure with biologic mesh reinforcement results in lesser complication and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> than bridged biologic mesh repair for abdominal wall reconstruction: A propensity score analysis.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Giordano, Salvatore; Garvey, Patrick B; Baumann, Donald P; Liu, Jun; Butler, Charles E</p> <p>2017-02-01</p> <p>Previous studies suggest that bridged mesh repair for abdominal wall reconstruction may result in worse outcomes than mesh-reinforced, primary fascial closure, particularly when acellular dermal matrix is used. We compared our outcomes of bridged versus reinforced repair using ADM in abdominal wall reconstruction procedures. This retrospective study included 535 consecutive patients at our cancer center who underwent abdominal wall reconstruction either for an incisional hernia or for abdominal wall defects left after excision of malignancies involving the abdominal wall with underlay mesh. A total of 484 (90%) patients underwent mesh-reinforced abdominal wall reconstruction and 51 (10%) underwent bridged repair abdominal wall reconstruction. Acellular dermal matrix was used, respectively, in 98% of bridged and 96% of reinforced repairs. We compared outcomes between these 2 groups using propensity score analysis for risk-adjustment in multivariate analysis and for 1-to-1 matching. Bridged repairs had a greater hernia <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> (33.3% vs 6.2%, P < .001), a greater overall complication <span class="hlt">rate</span> (59% vs 30%, P = .001), and worse freedom from hernia <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> (log-rank P <.001) than reinforced repairs. Bridged repairs also had a greater <span class="hlt">rate</span> of wound dehiscence (26% vs 14%, P = .034) and mesh exposure (10% vs 1%, P = .003) than mesh-reinforced abdominal wall reconstruction. When the treatment method was adjusted for propensity score in the propensity-score-matched pairs (n = 100), we found that the <span class="hlt">rates</span> of hernia <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> (32% vs 6%, P = .002), overall complications (32% vs 6%, P = .002), and freedom from hernia <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> (68% vs 32%, P = .001) <span class="hlt">rates</span> were worse after bridged repair. We did not observe differences in wound healing and mesh complications between the 2 groups. In our population of primarily cancer patients at MD Anderson Cancer Center bridged repair for abdominal wall reconstruction is associated with worse outcomes than mesh</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23404343','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23404343"><span>Anorectal gastrointestinal stromal tumors: a retrospective multicenter analysis of 15 cases emphasizing their high local <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> and the need for standardized therapeutic approach.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Agaimy, Abbas; Vassos, Nikolaos; Märkl, Bruno; Meidenbauer, Norbert; Köhler, Jens; Spatz, Johann; Hohenberger, Werner; Haller, Florian; Croner, Roland S; Schneider-Stock, Regine; Matzel, Klaus</p> <p>2013-08-01</p> <p>This study aims to report our multicenter experience with diagnosis, management, and prognosis of anorectal gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST). We retrospectively reviewed cases treated and/or followed up at our institutions in the period 2000-2011. Fifteen patients were identified (eight men and seven women; mean age, 55 years). Presenting symptoms were rectal/perirectal (eight), rectovaginal space (four), or retrovesical/prostatic (three) mass. Primary surgical treatment was local excision (six), deep anterior resection (eight), and palliative diagnostic excision (one). Tumor mean size was 4.8 cm. All but two cases were high risk (Miettinen and Lasota, Semin Diagn Pathol 23:70-83, 2006). R0 resection was achieved in 46% of cases: one of six local excisions vs. five of seven deep anterior resection (16 vs. 71%, respectively). All three cases who received total mesorectal excision had R0. Non-R0 status was mainly due to opening of tumor capsule at surgery (Rx). Seven of 14 patients (50%) developed ≥1 pelvic local <span class="hlt">recurrences</span> at a mean period of 48.4 months (mean follow-up, 61.6 months). Only two patients developed distant metastasis (adrenal, liver, and peritoneal). <span class="hlt">Recurrences</span> developed after Rx (three), R1 (two), and unknown R-status (two). Successful mutational analysis in 13 patients revealed KIT mutations in all (10 exon 11, 2 exon 9, and 1 exon 13). Our results confirm the high local <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> of anorectal GISTs (50%) which correlates with the common practice of suboptimal oncological primary tumor resection (Rx or R1 = 7/13). This uncommon subset of GISTs needs more standardized oncological surgical approach to minimize the propensity for local disease <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3223288','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3223288"><span>Age, Comorbidity, and Breast Cancer Severity: Impact on Receipt of Definitive Local Therapy and <span class="hlt">Rate</span> of <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> among Older Women with Early Stage Breast Cancer</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Field, Terry S; Bosco, Jaclyn LF; Prout, Marianne N; Gold, Heather T; Cutrona, Sarah; Pawloski, Pamala A; Yood, Marianne Ulcickas; Quinn, Virginia P; Thwin, Soe Soe; Silliman, Rebecca A</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>Background The definitive local therapy options for early stage breast cancer are 1) mastectomy and 2) breast conserving surgery followed by radiation therapy. Older women and those with comorbidities frequently receive breast conserving surgery alone. The interaction of age and comorbidity with breast cancer severity and their impact on receipt of definitive therapy have not been well studied Study Design In a cohort of 1837 women age≥65 years receiving treatment for early stage breast cancer in 6 integrated healthcare delivery systems in 1990–1994 and followed for 10 years, we examined predictors of receiving non-definitive local therapy and assessed the impact on breast cancer <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> within levels of severity, defined as level of risk for <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. Results Age and comorbidity were associated with receipt of non-definitive therapy. Compared to those at low risk, women at the highest risk were less likely to receive non-definitive therapy (odds ratio (OR) 0.32, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.22, 0.47) while women at moderate risk were about half as likely (OR 0.54, CI 0.35, 0.84). Non-definitive local therapy was associated with higher <span class="hlt">rates</span> of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> among women at moderate (HR 5.1, CI 1.9, 13.5) and low risk (HR 3.2, CI 1.1, 8.9). The association among women at high risk was weak (HR 1.3, CI 0.75, 2.1). Conclusions Among these older women with early stage breast cancer, decisions about therapy partially balanced breast cancer severity against age and comorbidity. However, even among women at low risk, omitting definitive local therapy was associated with increased <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. PMID:22014658</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFM.S52A..08J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFM.S52A..08J"><span>Geophysical Anomalies and <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Prediction</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Jackson, D. D.</p> <p>2008-12-01</p> <p>Finding anomalies is easy. Predicting <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> convincingly from such anomalies is far from easy. Why? Why have so many beautiful geophysical abnormalities not led to successful prediction strategies? What is <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> prediction? By my definition it is convincing information that an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> of specified size is temporarily much more likely than usual in a specific region for a specified time interval. We know a lot about normal <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> behavior, including locations where <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> are higher than elsewhere, with estimable <span class="hlt">rates</span> and size distributions. We know that <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> have power law size distributions over large areas, that they cluster in time and space, and that aftershocks follow with power-law dependence on time. These relationships justify prudent protective measures and scientific investigation. <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> prediction would justify exceptional temporary measures well beyond those normal prudent actions. Convincing <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> prediction would result from methods that have demonstrated many successes with few false alarms. Predicting <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> convincingly is difficult for several profound reasons. First, <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> start in tiny volumes at inaccessible depth. The power law size dependence means that tiny unobservable ones are frequent almost everywhere and occasionally grow to larger size. Thus prediction of important <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> is not about nucleation, but about identifying the conditions for growth. Second, <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are complex. They derive their energy from stress, which is perniciously hard to estimate or model because it is nearly singular at the margins of cracks and faults. Physical properties vary from place to place, so the preparatory processes certainly vary as well. Thus establishing the needed track record for validation is very difficult, especially for large events with immense interval times in any one location. Third, the anomalies are generally complex as well. Electromagnetic anomalies in particular require</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4423274','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4423274"><span>EMR is not inferior to ESD for early Barrett’s and EGJ neoplasia: An extensive review on outcome, <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> and complication <span class="hlt">rates</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Komeda, Yoriaki; Bruno, Marco; Koch, Arjun</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Background and study aims In recent years, it has been reported that early Barrett’s and esophagogastric junction (EGJ) neoplasia can be effectively and safely treated using endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) and endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD). Multiband mucosectomy (MBM) appears to be the safest EMR method. The aim of this systematic review is to assess the safety and efficacy of MBM compared with ESD for the treatment of early neoplasia in Barrett’s or at the EGJ. Methods A literature review of studies published up to May 2013 on EMR and ESD for early Barrett’s esophagus (BE) neoplasia and adenocarcinoma at the EGJ was performed through MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library. Results on outcome parameters such as number of curative resections, complications and procedure times are compared and reported. Results A total of 16 studies met the inclusion criteria for analysis in this study. There were no significant differences in <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> when comparing EMR (10/380, 2.6 %) to ESD (1/333, 0.7 %) (OR 8.55; 95 %CI, 0.91 – 80.0, P = 0.06). All <span class="hlt">recurrences</span> after EMR were treated with additional endoscopic resection. The risks of delayed bleeding, perforation and stricture <span class="hlt">rates</span> in both groups were similar. The procedure was considerably less time-consuming in the EMR group (mean time 36.7 min, 95 %CI, 34.5 – 38.9) than in the ESD group (mean time 83.3 min, 95 %CI, 57.4 – 109.2). Conclusions The MBM technique for EMR is as effective as ESD when comparing outcomes related to <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> and complication <span class="hlt">rates</span> for the treatment of early Barrett’s or EGJ neoplasia. The MBM technique is considerably less time-consuming. PMID:26135261</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5161549','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5161549"><span>Breast Carcinoma with Oncotype DX <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> Score Lower Than 18: <span class="hlt">Rate</span> of Distant Metastases in a Large Series with Clinical Follow-Up</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Wen, Hannah Y; Krystel-Whittemore, Melissa; Patil, Sujata; Pareja, Fresia; Bowser, Zenica L; Dickler, Maura N.; Norton, Larry; Morrow, Monica; Hudis, Clifford A.; Brogi, Edi</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Backgrounds A 21-gene expression assay (Oncotype DX™ <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> Score (“RS”)) that utilizes RT-PCR is used clinically in early-stage estrogen receptor-positive, HER2-negative breast carcinoma (ER+/HER2− BC) to determine both prognosis with tamoxifen therapy and the utility of adding adjuvant chemotherapy. Use of the assay is associated with reductions in overall chemotherapy usage. This study examined the treatments and outcomes in patients with low <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> scores. Methods We reviewed the institutional database to identify patients with node-negative, ER+/HER2− BC and the 21-gene <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> score results treated at our center between September 2008 and August 2013. Results We identified 1406 consecutive patients with node-negative ER+/HER2− BC and low RS [RS 0–10: n=510; RS 11–17: n=896]. The median age at BC diagnosis was 56 years; 63 (4%) patients were younger than 40 years. Overall, 1361 (97%) of patients received endocrine therapy and 170 (12%) received chemotherapy. The median follow-up time was 46 months. Six patients (0.4%) developed distant metastases (one patient with RS = 5, and five with RS of 11–17). In the RS 11–17 cohort, the absolute <span class="hlt">rate</span> of distant metastasis among patients <40 years old was 7.1% (3/42), versus 0.2% (2/854) among patients ≥40 years. Conclusions Our data document a 0.4% <span class="hlt">rate</span> of distant metastasis within 5 years of BC diagnosis among patients with node-negative ER+/HER2− BC of RS<18. Patients younger than 40 years at BC diagnosis were observed to have a higher <span class="hlt">rate</span> of distant metastases. Analysis of data from other studies is necessary to further validate this observation. PMID:27526056</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.7695K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.7695K"><span><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Hazard Assessment: Basics of Evaluation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kossobokov, Vladimir</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Seismic hazard assessment (SHA) is not an easy task that implies a delicate application of statistics to data of limited size and different accuracy. <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> follow the Unified Scaling Law that generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship by taking into account naturally fractal distribution of their sources. Moreover, <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, including the great and mega events, are clustered in time and their sequences have irregular <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> intervals. Furthermore, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> related observations are limited to the recent most decades (or centuries in just a few rare cases). Evidently, all this complicates reliable assessment of seismic hazard and associated risks. Making SHA claims, either termless or time dependent (so-called t-DASH), quantitatively probabilistic in the frames of the most popular objectivists' viewpoint on probability requires a long series of "yes/no" trials, which cannot be obtained without an extended rigorous testing of the method predictions against real observations. Therefore, we reiterate the necessity and possibility of applying the modified tools of <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Prediction Strategies, in particular, the Error Diagram, introduced by G.M. Molchan in early 1990ies for evaluation of SHA, and the Seismic Roulette null-hypothesis as a measure of the alerted space. The set of errors, i.e. the <span class="hlt">rates</span> of failure and of the alerted space-time volume, compared to those obtained in the same number of random guess trials permits evaluating the SHA method effectiveness and determining the optimal choice of the parameters in regard to specified cost-benefit functions. These and other information obtained in such a testing supplies us with a realistic estimate of confidence in SHA results and related recommendations on the level of risks for decision making in regard to engineering design, insurance, and emergency management. These basics of SHA evaluation are exemplified in brief with a few examples, which analyses in more detail are given in a poster of</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70036563','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70036563"><span>Seismicity <span class="hlt">rate</span> changes along the central California coast due to stress changes from the 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon and 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Aron, A.; Hardebeck, J.L.</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>We investigated the relationship between seismicity <span class="hlt">rate</span> changes and modeled Coulomb static stress changes from the 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon and the 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in central California. Coulomb stress modeling indicates that the San Simeon mainshock loaded parts of the Rinconada, Hosgri, and San Andreas strike-slip faults, along with the reverse faults of the southern Los Osos domain. All of these loaded faults, except for the San Andreas, experienced a seismicity <span class="hlt">rate</span> increase at the time of the San Simeon mainshock. The Parkfield <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurred 9 months later on the loaded portion of the San Andreas fault. The Parkfield <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> unloaded the Hosgri fault and the reverse faults of the southern Los Osos domain, which both experienced seismicity <span class="hlt">rate</span> decreases at the time of the Parkfield event, although the decreases may be related to the decay of San Simeon-triggered seismicity. Coulomb stress unloading from the Parkfield <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> appears to have altered the aftershock decay <span class="hlt">rate</span> of the southern cluster of San Simeon after-shocks, which is deficient compared to the expected number of aftershocks from the Omori decay parameters based on the pre-Parkfield aftershocks. Dynamic stress changes cannot explain the deficiency of aftershocks, providing evidence that static stress changes affect <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence. However, a burst of seismicity following the Parkfield <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> at Ragged Point, where the static stress was decreased, provides evidence for dynamic stress triggering. It therefore appears that both Coulomb static stress changes and dynamic stress changes affect the seismicity <span class="hlt">rate</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28274241','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28274241"><span>Salvage prostate re-irradiation using high-dose-<span class="hlt">rate</span> brachytherapy or focal stereotactic body radiotherapy for local <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> after definitive radiation therapy.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Mbeutcha, Aurélie; Chauveinc, Laurent; Bondiau, Pierre-Yves; Chand, Marie-Eve; Durand, Matthieu; Chevallier, Daniel; Amiel, Jean; Kee, Daniel Lam Cham; Hannoun-Lévi, Jean-Michel</p> <p>2017-03-09</p> <p>Optimal management of locally <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> prostate cancer after definitive radiation therapy is still challenging. With the development of highly accurate radiotherapy devices, prostate salvage re-irradiation might generate lower toxicity <span class="hlt">rates</span> than classical salvage therapies. We retrospectively evaluated the toxicity and the feasibility of a prostate re-irradiation after definitive radiation therapy failure. Two modalities were investigated: high-dose-<span class="hlt">rate</span> brachytherapy (HDRB) on whole prostate gland and focal stereotactic radiotherapy (SBRT) using CyberKnife® linac. Between 2011 and 2015, 28 patients with imaged and/or biopsy-proven intra-prostatic <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of cancer after definitive radiation therapy underwent a salvage re-irradiation using HDRB (n = 10) or focal SBRT (n = 18). The schedule of re-irradiation was 35 Gy in 5 fractions. Biological response (defined as post-salvage radiation PSA variation) and biochemical no-evidence of disease (bNED) were evaluated in the whole cohort. For patients who had a positive biological response after salvage radiation, biochemical <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> (BCR) and survival after salvage radiotherapy were evaluated. Post-salvage toxicities were assessed according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE) v4.03 and were compared to baseline status. Within a median follow-up of 22.5 months (IQR = 8-42), 9 (90%) patients experienced a positive biological response after salvage HDRB and 5 (50%) remained bNED at the end of the follow-up. Among patients who initially responded to salvage HDRB, the BCR <span class="hlt">rate</span> was 44.4% after a median interval of 19.5 months (IQR = 11.5-26). Only one patient experienced a transient grade 3 urinary complication. In the SBRT group, the median follow-up was 14.5 months (IQR = 7-23) and 10 (55.6%) out of the 18 patients remained bNED. Among the 15 patients who initially responded to salvage SBRT, 5 (33.3%) experienced a BCR. One patient experienced a transient grade 4</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li class="active"><span>18</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_18 --> <div id="page_19" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li class="active"><span>19</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="361"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMOS13D..03B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMOS13D..03B"><span>Holocene Mass Transport Deposits in Western Norwegian fjords and lakes revealing prehistoric <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> history of Scandinavia</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bellwald, B.; Hjelstuen, B. O.; Sejrup, H. P.; Kuvås, J.; Stokowy, T.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>The sensitivity of fjord sediments to seismic shaking makes fjord systems appropriate study sites when extending regional <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalogs back in time and when estimating <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> of prehistoric <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in intraplate settings. In this study we compiled evidence of 140 postglacial mass movement events and their associated mass transport deposits (MTDs) from previously analyzed and new sediment cores and high-resolution seismic profiles from 22 fjord systems and six lakes in Western Norway. Evaluation of trigger mechanisms make us infer that most of these mass movement events were initiated by regional <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, and that both climate-related processes and tsunamis most likely can be excluded as trigger mechanism for most of the events. A total of 33 individual <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> has been identified, which most likely outbalance the historically recorded events in magnitude, thus indicating magnitudes >6. Frequency plots of MTDs suggest high seismic activity in the early Holocene (11000-9700 cal. yrs BP), followed by seismic quiescence in the mid-Holocene before a seismic reactivation took place at 4000 cal. yrs BP. Coevally-triggered MTDs at 8100 cal. yrs BP are identified in all the archives, and are correlating with the age of the offshore Storegga slide. We estimate <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> of 1/80 years directly after the last deglaciation of Western Norway (12800-11600 ca. yrs BP), 1/200 years for the early Holocene and 1/300 years for the last 4000 years. Our compilation suggests that the mid-Holocene is characterized by low seismic activity, suggesting <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> of 1/1300 years. Comparisons of the Western Norwegian dataset with paleoseimologic studies of other previously glaciated intraplate settings indicate that both Scandinavia and the Alps show similar trends as Western Norway, whereas Eastern Canada is not correlating with the paleoseismologic trend of this study, which could be explained by different deglaciation histories.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFM.G31A..06H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFM.G31A..06H"><span>Characterization of a Strain <span class="hlt">Rate</span> Transient Along the San Andreas and San Jacinto Faults Following the October 1999 Hector Mine <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hernandez, D.; Holt, W. E.; Bennett, R. A.; Dimitrova, L.; Haines, A. J.</p> <p>2006-12-01</p> <p>We are continuing work on developing and refining a tool for recognizing strain <span class="hlt">rate</span> transients as well as for quantifying the magnitude and style of their temporal and spatial variations. We determined time-averaged velocity values in 0.05 year epochs using time-varying velocity estimates for continuous GPS station data from the Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN) for the time period between October 1999 and February 2004 [Li et al., 2005]. A self-consistent model velocity gradient tensor field solution is determined for each epoch by fitting bi-cubic Bessel interpolation to the GPS velocity vectors and we determine model dilatation strain <span class="hlt">rates</span>, shear strain <span class="hlt">rates</span>, and the rotation <span class="hlt">rates</span>. Departures of the time dependent model strain <span class="hlt">rate</span> and velocity fields from a master solution, obtained from a time-averaged solution for the period 1999-2004, with imposed plate motion constraints and Quaternary fault data, are evaluated in order to best characterize the time dependent strain <span class="hlt">rate</span> field. A particular problem in determining the transient strain <span class="hlt">rate</span> fields is the level of smoothing or damping that is applied. Our current approach is to choose a damping that both maximizes the departure of the transient strain <span class="hlt">rate</span> field from the long-term master solution and achieves a reduced chi-squared value between model and observed GPS velocities of around 1.0 for all time epochs. We observe several noteworthy time-dependent changes. First, in the Eastern California Shear Zone (ECSZ) region, immediately following the October 1999 Hector Mine <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, there occurs a significant spatial increase of relatively high shear strain <span class="hlt">rate</span>, which encompasses a significant portion of the ECSZ. Second, also following the Hector Mine event, there is a strain <span class="hlt">rate</span> corridor that extends through the Pinto Mt. fault connecting the ECSZ to the San Andreas fault segment in the Salton Trough region. As this signal slowly decays, shear strain <span class="hlt">rates</span> on segments of the San</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011PhRvE..83d6109K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011PhRvE..83d6109K"><span><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> correlations and networks: A comparative study</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Krishna Mohan, T. R.; Revathi, P. G.</p> <p>2011-04-01</p> <p>We quantify the correlation between <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and use the same to extract causally connected <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> pairs. Our correlation metric is a variation on the one introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski [M. Baiesi and M. Paczuski, Phys. Rev. E EULEEJ1539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.69.06610669, 066106 (2004)]. A network of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> is then constructed from the time-ordered catalog and with links between the more correlated ones. A list of <span class="hlt">recurrences</span> to each of the <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> is identified employing correlation thresholds to demarcate the most meaningful ones in each cluster. Data pertaining to three different seismic regions (viz., California, Japan, and the Himalayas) are comparatively analyzed using such a network model. The distribution of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> lengths and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> times are two of the key features analyzed to draw conclusions about the universal aspects of such a network model. We find that the unimodal feature of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> length distribution, which helps to associate typical rupture lengths with different magnitude <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, is robust across the different seismic regions. The out-degree of the networks shows a hub structure rooted on the large magnitude <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. In-degree distribution is seen to be dependent on the density of events in the neighborhood. Power laws, with two regimes having different exponents, are obtained with <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> time distribution. The first regime confirms the Omori law for aftershocks while the second regime, with a faster falloff for the larger <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> times, establishes that pure spatial <span class="hlt">recurrences</span> also follow a power-law distribution. The crossover to the second power-law regime can be taken to be signaling the end of the aftershock regime in an objective fashion.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004AGUFMPA24A..03B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004AGUFMPA24A..03B"><span>Urban <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> - Reducing Building Collapse Through Education</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bilham, R.</p> <p>2004-12-01</p> <p>Fatalities from <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> rose from 6000k to 9000k/year in the past decade, yet the ratio of numbers of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> fatalities to instantaneous population continues to fall. Since 1950 the ratio declined worldwide by a factor of three, but in some countries the ratio has changed little. E.g in Iran, 1 in 3000 people can expect to die in an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, a percentage that has not changed significantly since 1890. Fatalities from <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> remain high in those countries that have traditionally suffered from frequent large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (Turkey, Iran, Japan, and China), suggesting that the exposure time of recently increased urban populations in other countries may be too short to have interacted with <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> with long <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> intervals. This in turn, suggests that disasters of unprecendented size will occur (more than 1 million fatalities) when future large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> occur close to megacities. However, population growth is most rapid in cities of less than 1 million people in the developing nations, where the financial ability to implement <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> resistant construction methods is limited. In that structural collapse can often be traced to ignorance about the forces at work in an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, the future collapse of buildings presently under construction could be much reduced were contractors, builders and occupants educated in the principles of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> resistant assembly. Education of builders who are tempted to cut assembly costs is likely to be more cost effective than material aid.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26059509','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26059509"><span>High-dose-<span class="hlt">rate</span> stereotactic body radiation therapy for postradiation therapy locally <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> prostatic carcinoma: Preliminary prostate-specific antigen response, disease-free survival, and toxicity assessment.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Fuller, Donald B; Wurzer, James; Shirazi, Reza; Bridge, Stephen S; Law, Jonathan; Mardirossian, George</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Patients with locally <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> adenocarcinoma of the prostate following radiation therapy (RT) present a challenging problem. We prospectively evaluated the use of "high-dose-<span class="hlt">rate</span>-like" prostate stereotactic body RT (SBRT) salvage for this circumstance, evaluating prostate-specific antigen response, disease-free survival, and toxicity. Between February 2009 and March 2014, 29 patients with biopsy-proven <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> locally prostate cancer >2 years post-RT were treated. Median prior RT dose was 73.8 Gy and median interval to SBRT salvage was 88 months. Median <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> Gleason score was 7 (79% was ≥7). Pre-existing RT toxicity >grade 1 was a reason for exclusion. Magnetic resonance imaging-defined prostate volume including any suspected extraprostatic extension, comprising the planning target volume. A total of 34 Gy/5 fractions was given, delivering a heterogeneous, high-dose-<span class="hlt">rate</span>-like dose-escalation pattern. Toxicities were assessed using Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, version 3.0, criteria. Twenty-nine treated patients had a median 24-month follow-up (range, 3-60 months). A median pre-SBRT salvage baseline prostate-specific antigen level of 3.1 ng/mL decreased to 0.65 ng/mL and 0.16 ng/mL at 1 and 2 years, respectively. Actuarial 2-year biochemical disease-free survival measured 82%, with no local failures. Toxicity >grade 1 was limited to the genitourinary domain, with 18% grade 2 or higher and 7% grade 3 or higher. No gastrointestinal toxicity >grade 1 occurred. Two-year disease-free survival is encouraging, and the prostate-specific antigen response kinetic appears comparable with that seen in de novo patients treated with SBRT, albeit still a preliminary finding. Grade ≥2 genitourinary toxicity was occasionally seen with no obvious predictive factor. Noting that our only brachytherapy case was 1 of the 2 cases with ≥grade 3 genitourinary toxicity, caution is recommended treating these patients. SBRT salvage of post-RT local <span class="hlt">recurrence</span></p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70048548','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70048548"><span>Fault healing promotes high-frequency <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in laboratory experiments and on natural faults</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>McLaskey, Gregory C.; Thomas, Amanda M.; Glaser, Steven D.; Nadeau, Robert M.</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Faults strengthen or heal with time in stationary contact and this healing may be an essential ingredient for the generation of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. In the laboratory, healing is thought to be the result of thermally activated mechanisms that weld together micrometre-sized asperity contacts on the fault surface, but the relationship between laboratory measures of fault healing and the seismically observable properties of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> is at present not well defined. Here we report on laboratory experiments and seismological observations that show how the spectral properties of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> vary as a function of fault healing time. In the laboratory, we find that increased healing causes a disproportionately large amount of high-frequency seismic radiation to be produced during fault rupture. We observe a similar connection between <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> spectra and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> time for repeating <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequences on natural faults. Healing <span class="hlt">rates</span> depend on pressure, temperature and mineralogy, so the connection between seismicity and healing may help to explain recent observations of large megathrust <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> which indicate that energetic, high-frequency seismic radiation originates from locations that are distinct from the geodetically inferred locations of large-amplitude fault slip</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.T13E..02V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.T13E..02V"><span>Aseismic Slip Throughout the <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Cycle in Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rica</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Voss, N. K.; Liu, Z.; Hobbs, T. E.; Schwartz, S. Y.; Malservisi, R.; Dixon, T. H.; Protti, M.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Geodetically resolved Slow Slip Events (SSE), a large M7.6 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, and afterslip have all been documented in the last 16 years of observation in Nicoya, Costa Rica. We present a synthesis of the observations of observed aseismic slip behavior. SSEs in Nicoya are observed both during the late inter-seismic period and the post-seismic period, despite ongoing post-seismic phenomena. While <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span> appear unchanged by position within <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle, SSE behavior does vary before and after the event. We discuss how afterslip may be responsible for this change in behavior. We also present observations of a pre-<span class="hlt">earthquake</span> transient observed starting 6 months prior to the M7.6 megathrust <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. This <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> takes place within an asperity that is surrounded by regions which previously underwent slow slip behavior. We compare how this pre-<span class="hlt">earthquake</span> transient, modeled as aseismic slip, differs from observations of typical Nicoya SSEs. Finally, we attempt to explain the segmentation of behaviors in Costa Rica with a simple frictional model.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoJI.211..335K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoJI.211..335K"><span><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> number forecasts testing</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kagan, Yan Y.</p> <p>2017-10-01</p> <p>We study the distributions of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> numbers in two global <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalogues: Global Centroid-Moment Tensor and Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters. The properties of these distributions are especially required to develop the number test for our forecasts of future seismic activity <span class="hlt">rate</span>, tested by the Collaboratory for Study of <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Predictability (CSEP). A common assumption, as used in the CSEP tests, is that the numbers are described by the Poisson distribution. It is clear, however, that the Poisson assumption for the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> number distribution is incorrect, especially for the catalogues with a lower magnitude threshold. In contrast to the one-parameter Poisson distribution so widely used to describe <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrences, the negative-binomial distribution (NBD) has two parameters. The second parameter can be used to characterize the clustering or overdispersion of a process. We also introduce and study a more complex three-parameter beta negative-binomial distribution. We investigate the dependence of parameters for both Poisson and NBD distributions on the catalogue magnitude threshold and on temporal subdivision of catalogue duration. First, we study whether the Poisson law can be statistically rejected for various catalogue subdivisions. We find that for most cases of interest, the Poisson distribution can be shown to be rejected statistically at a high significance level in favour of the NBD. Thereafter, we investigate whether these distributions fit the observed distributions of seismicity. For this purpose, we study upper statistical moments of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> numbers (skewness and kurtosis) and compare them to the theoretical values for both distributions. Empirical values for the skewness and the kurtosis increase for the smaller magnitude threshold and increase with even greater intensity for small temporal subdivision of catalogues. The Poisson distribution for large <span class="hlt">rate</span> values approaches the Gaussian law, therefore its skewness</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/facts.php','NIH-MEDLINEPLUS'); return false;" href="https://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/facts.php"><span><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Facts</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://medlineplus.gov/">MedlinePlus</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>... recordings of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, scientists built large spring-pendulum seismometers in an attempt to record the long- ... are moving away from one another. The first “pendulum seismoscope” to measure the shaking of the ground ...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.T51A2448J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.T51A2448J"><span>The EM <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Precursor</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Jones, K. B., II; Saxton, P. T.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>Many attempts have been made to determine a sound forecasting method regarding <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and warn the public in turn. Presently, the animal kingdom leads the precursor list alluding to a transmission related source. By applying the animal-based model to an electromagnetic (EM) wave model, various hypotheses were formed, but the most interesting one required the use of a magnetometer with a differing design and geometry. To date, numerous, high-end magnetometers have been in use in close proximity to fault zones for potential <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> forecasting; however, something is still amiss. The problem still resides with what exactly is forecastable and the investigating direction of EM. After the 1989 Loma Prieta <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span>, American <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> investigators predetermined magnetometer use and a minimum <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> magnitude necessary for EM detection. This action was set in motion, due to the extensive damage incurred and public outrage concerning <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> forecasting; however, the magnetometers employed, grounded or buried, are completely subject to static and electric fields and have yet to correlate to an identifiable precursor. Secondly, there is neither a networked array for finding any epicentral locations, nor have there been any attempts to find even one. This methodology needs dismissal, because it is overly complicated, subject to continuous change, and provides no response time. As for the minimum magnitude threshold, which was set at M5, this is simply higher than what modern technological advances have gained. Detection can now be achieved at approximately M1, which greatly improves forecasting chances. A propagating precursor has now been detected in both the field and laboratory. Field antenna testing conducted outside the NE Texas town of Timpson in February, 2013, detected three strong EM sources along with numerous weaker signals. The antenna had mobility, and observations were noted for <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>, duration, and frequency response. Next, two</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22661175-self-consistent-model-full-cycle-recurrent-novaewind-mass-loss-rate-ray-luminosity','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22661175-self-consistent-model-full-cycle-recurrent-novaewind-mass-loss-rate-ray-luminosity"><span>A Self-consistent Model for a Full Cycle of <span class="hlt">Recurrent</span> Novae—Wind Mass-loss <span class="hlt">Rate</span> and X-Ray Luminosity</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Kato, Mariko; Saio, Hideyuki; Hachisu, Izumi, E-mail: mariko.kato@hc.st.keio.ac.jp</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>An unexpectedly slow evolution in the pre-optical-maximum phase was suggested in the very short <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> period of nova M31N 2008-12a. To obtain reasonable nova light curves we have improved our calculation method by consistently combining optically thick wind solutions of hydrogen-rich envelopes with white dwarf (WD) structures calculated by a Henyey-type evolution code. The wind mass-loss <span class="hlt">rate</span> is properly determined with high accuracy. We have calculated light curve models for 1.2 M {sub ⊙} and 1.38 M {sub ⊙} WDs with mass accretion <span class="hlt">rates</span> corresponding to <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> periods of 10 yr and 1 yr, respectively. The outburst lasts 590/29 days,more » in which the pre-optical-maximum phase is 82/16 days, for 1.2/1.38 M {sub ⊙}, respectively. Optically thick winds start at the end of the X-ray flash and cease at the beginning of the supersoft X-ray phase. We also present supersoft X-ray light curves including a prompt X-ray flash and later supersoft X-ray phase.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/6294255-treatment-stages-ii-cancer-cervix-analysis-year-survival-recurrence-rates-effects-surgery-incidence-complications-following-radiotherapy','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/6294255-treatment-stages-ii-cancer-cervix-analysis-year-survival-recurrence-rates-effects-surgery-incidence-complications-following-radiotherapy"><span>Treatment of Stages I and II cancer of the cervix: analysis of 5 year survival and <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rates</span>. [Effects of surgery an incidence of complications following radiotherapy</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Tavares, M.A.; da Conceicao Belo, M.; Santos, M.</p> <p>1979-03-01</p> <p>Eight hundred and thirty five patients with a diagnosis of Stages I or II carcinoma of the cervix were treated from 2 January 1965 to 30 June 1971. The purpose of this study was to calculate the 5 year survival <span class="hlt">rates</span> and to analyze the treatment failures according to the modality of treatment applied. Two series of Stages Ib and IIa patients were available; one group was treated with radiotherapy, and the other with radical hysterectomy and pelvic lymphadenectomy after previous intracavitary radiumtherapy. No statistically significant difference was found in the 5 year survival of both groups. Most Stage IIbmore » patients were treated with radiotherapy. When residual tumor was found in the uterus of a patients who underwent radical surgery after intracavitary radiumtherapy it did not influence survival. On the other hand, the presence of metastatic pelvic lymph nodes after intracavitary radium treatment was related to a lowered survival <span class="hlt">rate</span>. The number of severe injuries was higher in patients who were treated surgically. <span class="hlt">Recurrences</span> developed within 5 years after completion of treatment in 10.8% of Stage Ib patients, 21.5% of Stage IIa patients, and 34.5% of Stage IIb patients. Ninety per cent of these <span class="hlt">recurrences</span> appeared within 3 years after therapy.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70170234','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70170234"><span><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> watch</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Hill, M.</p> <p>1976-01-01</p> <p> When the time comes that <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> can be predicted accurately, what shall we do with the knowledge? This was the theme of a November 1975 conference on <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> warning and response held in San Francisco called by Assistant Secretary of the Interior Jack W. Carlson. Invited were officials of State and local governments from Alaska, California, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, utah, Washington, and Wyoming and representatives of the news media. </p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28871096','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28871096"><span>Near-source high-<span class="hlt">rate</span> GPS, strong motion and InSAR observations to image the 2015 Lefkada (Greece) <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> rupture history.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Avallone, Antonio; Cirella, Antonella; Cheloni, Daniele; Tolomei, Cristiano; Theodoulidis, Nikos; Piatanesi, Alessio; Briole, Pierre; Ganas, Athanassios</p> <p>2017-09-04</p> <p>The 2015/11/17 Lefkada (Greece) <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ruptured a segment of the Cephalonia Transform Fault (CTF) where probably the penultimate major event was in 1948. Using near-source strong motion and high sampling <span class="hlt">rate</span> GPS data and Sentinel-1A SAR images on two tracks, we performed the inversion for the geometry, slip distribution and rupture history of the causative fault with a three-step self-consistent procedure, in which every step provided input parameters for the next one. Our preferred model results in a ~70° ESE-dipping and ~13° N-striking fault plane, with a strike-slip mechanism (rake ~169°) in agreement with the CTF tectonic regime. This model shows a bilateral propagation spanning ~9 s with the activation of three main slip patches, characterized by rise time and peak slip velocity in the ranges 2.5-3.5 s and 1.4-2.4 m/s, respectively, corresponding to 1.2-1.8 m of slip which is mainly concentrated in the shallower (<10 km) southern half of the causative fault. The inferred slip distribution and the resulting seismic moment (M 0  = 1.05 × 10 19 N m) suggest a magnitude of M w 6.6. Our best solution suggests that the occurrence of large (M w  > 6) <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> to the northern and to the southern boundaries of the 2015 causative fault cannot be excluded.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70188475','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70188475"><span>On- and off-fault deformation associated with the September 2013 Mw7.7 Balochistan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>: implications for geologic slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> measurements</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Gold, Ryan D.; Reitman, Nadine G.; Briggs, Richard; Barnhart, William; Hayes, Gavin; Wilson, Earl M.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>The 24 September 2013 Mw7.7 Balochistan, Pakistan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ruptured a ~ 200 km-long stretch of the Hoshab fault in southern Pakistan and produced the second-largest lateral surface displacement observed for a continental strike-slip <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. We remotely measured surface deformation associated with this event using high-resolution (0.5 m) pre- and post-event satellite optical imagery. We document left lateral, near-field, on-fault offsets (10 m from fault) using 309 laterally offset piercing points, such as streams, terrace risers, and roads. Peak near-field displacement is 13.6 + 2.5/− 3.4 m. We characterize off-fault deformation by measuring medium- (< 350 m from fault) and far-field (> 350 m from fault) displacement using manual (259 measurements) and automated image cross-correlation methods, respectively. Off-fault peak lateral displacement values are ~ 15 m and exceed on-fault displacement magnitudes for ~ 85% of the rupture length. Our observations suggest that for this rupture, coseismic surface displacement typically increases with distance away from the surface trace of the fault; however, nearly 100% of total surface displacement occurs within a few hundred meters of the primary fault trace. Furthermore, off-fault displacement accounts for, on average, 28% of the total displacement but exhibits a highly heterogeneous along-strike pattern. The best agreement between near-field and far-field displacements generally corresponds to the narrowest fault zone widths. Our analysis demonstrates significant and heterogeneous mismatches between on- and off-fault coseismic deformation, and we conclude that this phenomenon should be considered in hazard models based on geologically determined on-fault slip <span class="hlt">rates</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015Tectp.660...65G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015Tectp.660...65G"><span>On- and off-fault deformation associated with the September 2013 Mw 7.7 Balochistan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>: Implications for geologic slip <span class="hlt">rate</span> measurements</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Gold, Ryan D.; Reitman, Nadine G.; Briggs, Richard W.; Barnhart, William D.; Hayes, Gavin P.; Wilson, Earl</p> <p>2015-10-01</p> <p>The 24 September 2013 Mw7.7 Balochistan, Pakistan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ruptured a ~ 200 km-long stretch of the Hoshab fault in southern Pakistan and produced the second-largest lateral surface displacement observed for a continental strike-slip <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. We remotely measured surface deformation associated with this event using high-resolution (0.5 m) pre- and post-event satellite optical imagery. We document left lateral, near-field, on-fault offsets (10 m from fault) using 309 laterally offset piercing points, such as streams, terrace risers, and roads. Peak near-field displacement is 13.6 + 2.5/- 3.4 m. We characterize off-fault deformation by measuring medium- (< 350 m from fault) and far-field (> 350 m from fault) displacement using manual (259 measurements) and automated image cross-correlation methods, respectively. Off-fault peak lateral displacement values are ~ 15 m and exceed on-fault displacement magnitudes for ~ 85% of the rupture length. Our observations suggest that for this rupture, coseismic surface displacement typically increases with distance away from the surface trace of the fault; however, nearly 100% of total surface displacement occurs within a few hundred meters of the primary fault trace. Furthermore, off-fault displacement accounts for, on average, 28% of the total displacement but exhibits a highly heterogeneous along-strike pattern. The best agreement between near-field and far-field displacements generally corresponds to the narrowest fault zone widths. Our analysis demonstrates significant and heterogeneous mismatches between on- and off-fault coseismic deformation, and we conclude that this phenomenon should be considered in hazard models based on geologically determined on-fault slip <span class="hlt">rates</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.T23A2891L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.T23A2891L"><span>Depth variations of friction <span class="hlt">rate</span> parameter derived from dynamic modeling of GPS afterslip associated with the 2003 Mw 6.5 Chengkung <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in eastern Taiwan</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lee, J. C.; Liu, Z. Y. C.; Shirzaei, M.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>The Chihshang fault lies at the plate suture between the Eurasian and the Philippine Sea plates along the Longitudinal Valley in eastern Taiwan. Here we investigate depth variation of fault frictional parameters derived from the post-seismic slip model of the 2003 Mw 6.5 Chengkung <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Assuming a <span class="hlt">rate</span>-strengthening friction, we implement an inverse dynamic modeling scheme to estimate the frictional parameter (a-b) and reference friction coefficient (μ*) in depths by taking into account: pre-seismic stress as well as co-seismic and post-seismic coulomb stress changes associated with the 2003 Chengkung <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. We investigate two coseismic models by Hsu et al. (2009) and Thomas et al. (2014). Model parameters, including stress gradient, depth dependent a-b and μ*, are determined from fitting the transient post-seismic geodetic signal measured at 12 continuous GPS stations. In our inversion scheme, we apply a non-linear optimization algorithm, Genetic Algorithm (GA), to search for the optimum frictional parameters. Considering the zone with velocity-strengthening frictional properties along Chihshang fault, the optimum a-b is 7-8 × 10-3 along the shallow part of the fault (0-10 km depth) and 1-2 × 10-2 in 22-28 km depth. Optimum solution for μ* is 0.3-0.4 in 0-10 km depth and reaches 0.8 in 22-28 km depth. The optimized stress gradient is 54 MPa/ km. The inferred frictional parameters are consistent with the laboratory measurements on clay-rich fault zone gouges comparable to the Lichi Melange, which is thrust over Holocene alluvial deposits across the Chihshang fault, considering the main rock composition of the Chihshang fault, at least at the upper kilometers level of the fault. Our results can facilitate further studies in particular on seismic cycle and hazard assessment of active faults.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26517771','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26517771"><span>Lower <span class="hlt">rates</span> of symptom <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> and surgical revision after primary compared with secondary endoscopic third ventriculostomy for obstructive hydrocephalus secondary to aqueductal stenosis in adults.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Sankey, Eric W; Goodwin, C Rory; Jusué-Torres, Ignacio; Elder, Benjamin D; Hoffberger, Jamie; Lu, Jennifer; Blitz, Ari M; Rigamonti, Daniele</p> <p>2016-05-01</p> <p>OBJECT Endoscopic third ventriculostomy (ETV) is the treatment of choice for obstructive hydrocephalus; however, the success of ETV in patients who have previously undergone shunt placement remains unclear. The present study analyzed 103 adult patients with aqueductal stenosis who underwent ETV for obstructive hydrocephalus and evaluated the effect of previous shunt placement on post-ETV outcomes. METHODS This study was a retrospective review of 151 consecutive patients who were treated between 2007 and 2013 with ETV for hydrocephalus. One hundred three (68.2%) patients with aqueductal stenosis causing obstructive hydrocephalus were included in the analysis. Postoperative ETV patency and aqueductal and cisternal flow were assessed by high-resolution, gradient-echo MRI. Post-ETV Mini-Mental State Examination, Timed Up and Go, and Tinetti scores were compared with preoperative values. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed comparing the post-ETV outcomes in patients who underwent a primary (no previous shunt) ETV (n = 64) versus secondary (previous shunt) ETV (n = 39). RESULTS The majority of patients showed significant improvement in symptoms after ETV; however, no significant differences were seen in any of the quantitative tests performed during follow-up. Symptom <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> occurred in 29 (28.2%) patients after ETV, after a median of 3.0 (interquartile range 0.8-8.0) months post-ETV failure. Twenty-seven (26.2%) patients required surgical revision after their initial ETV. Patients who received a secondary ETV had higher <span class="hlt">rates</span> of symptom <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> (p = 0.003) and surgical revision (p = 0.003), particularly in regard to additional shunt placement/revision post-ETV (p = 0.005). These differences remained significant after multivariate analysis for both symptom <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> (p = 0.030) and surgical revision (p = 0.043). CONCLUSIONS Patients with obstructive hydrocephalus due to aqueductal stenosis exhibit symptomatic improvement after ETV, with a</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.S21A2146L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.S21A2146L"><span>The Active Fault Parameters for Time-Dependent <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Hazard Assessment in Taiwan</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lee, Y.; Cheng, C.; Lin, P.; Shao, K.; Wu, Y.; Shih, C.</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>Taiwan is located at the boundary between the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian Plate, with a convergence <span class="hlt">rate</span> of ~ 80 mm/yr in a ~N118E direction. The plate motion is so active that <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is very frequent. In the Taiwan area, disaster-inducing <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> often result from active faults. For this reason, it's an important subject to understand the activity and hazard of active faults. The active faults in Taiwan are mainly located in the Western Foothills and the Eastern longitudinal valley. Active fault distribution map published by the Central Geological Survey (CGS) in 2010 shows that there are 31 active faults in the island of Taiwan and some of which are related to <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Many researchers have investigated these active faults and continuously update new data and results, but few people have integrated them for time-dependent <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard assessment. In this study, we want to gather previous researches and field work results and then integrate these data as an active fault parameters table for time-dependent <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard assessment. We are going to gather the seismic profiles or <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> relocation of a fault and then combine the fault trace on land to establish the 3D fault geometry model in GIS system. We collect the researches of fault source scaling in Taiwan and estimate the maximum magnitude from fault length or fault area. We use the characteristic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> model to evaluate the active fault <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> interval. In the other parameters, we will collect previous studies or historical references and complete our parameter table of active faults in Taiwan. The WG08 have done the time-dependent <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard assessment of active faults in California. They established the fault models, deformation models, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> models, and probability models and then compute the probability of faults in California. Following these steps, we have the preliminary evaluated probability of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-related hazards in certain</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1910315W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1910315W"><span>Controls on the long term <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> behavior of an intraplate fault revealed by U-Th and stable isotope analyses of syntectonic calcite veins</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Williams, Randolph; Goodwin, Laurel; Sharp, Warren; Mozley, Peter</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>U-Th dates on calcite precipitated in coseismic extension fractures in the Loma Blanca normal fault zone, Rio Grande rift, NM, USA, constrain <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> intervals from 150-565 ka. This is the longest direct record of seismicity documented for a fault in any tectonic environment. Combined U-Th and stable isotope analyses of these calcite veins define 13 distinct <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> events. These data show that for more than 400 ka the Loma Blanca fault produced <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> with a mean <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> interval of 40 ± 7 ka. The coefficient of variation for these events is 0.40, indicating strongly periodic seismicity consistent with a time-dependent model of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>. Stochastic statistical analyses further validate the inference that <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> behavior on the Loma Blanca was time-dependent. The time-dependent nature of these <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> suggests that the seismic cycle was fundamentally controlled by a stress renewal process. However, this periodic cycle was punctuated by an episode of clustered seismicity at 430 ka. <span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> intervals within the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cluster were as low as 5-11 ka. Breccia veins formed during this episode exhibit carbon isotope signatures consistent with having formed through pronounced degassing of a CO2 charged brine during post-failure, fault-localized fluid migration. The 40 ka periodicity of the long-term <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> record of the Loma Blanca fault is similar in magnitude to <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> intervals documented through paleoseismic studies of other normal faults in the Rio Grande rift and Basin and Range Province. We propose that it represents a background <span class="hlt">rate</span> of failure in intraplate extension. The short-term, clustered seismicity that occurred on the fault records an interruption of the stress renewal process, likely by elevated fluid pressure in deeper structural levels of the fault, consistent with fault-valve behavior. The relationship between <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> interval and inferred fluid degassing suggests that pore fluid pressure</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li class="active"><span>19</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_19 --> <div id="page_20" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li class="active"><span>20</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="381"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27825030','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27825030"><span>Nonabsorbable urethral bulking agent - clinical effectiveness and late complications <span class="hlt">rates</span> in the treatment of <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> stress urinary incontinence after 2 years of follow-up.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Futyma, Konrad; Nowakowski, Łukasz; Gałczyński, Krzysztof; Miotła, Paweł; Rechberger, Tomasz</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Those patients who failed to achieve continence after a procedure aimed to correct it, require a special attitude and precise management due to the sophisticated anatomical and functional field of interest. The purpose of the present study was to assess long-term clinical efficacy and evaluate the frequency and severity of any complications related to <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> stress urinary incontinence treatment with a non-absorbable bulking agent periurethral injections. Between February 2012-September 2013, 66 patients with <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> stress urinary incontinence were treated with Urolastic in the tertiary referral gynecologic department. The efficacy of the procedure was assessed objectively at each follow-up visit, scheduled at two, six weeks and 3, 6, 12 and 24 months after primary procedure. Material was injected under local anesthesia according to the manufacturer's instructions, at 10, 2, 4 and 8 o'clock positions with 0.5-1.25ccm per spot. Statistical analyses were performed with Statistica package version 8.0 (StatSoft Inc., Tulsa, OK, USA). A p value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Objective success <span class="hlt">rate</span> at 24 months was found in 32.7% of patients, including 22.4% patients who were completely dry. The efficacy of Urolastic, when considering the intention to treat, is 24.2% and 16.7%, respectively. In 4.5% patients an oval shaped material was found inside the bladder. Overall, complications were observed in 17 (25.8%) patients. Although only 30% of patients will benefit from Urolastic injection on the long-term basis it seems to be a safe procedure in the treatment of <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> stress urinary incontinence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23437851','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23437851"><span>Recovery of self-<span class="hlt">rated</span> health as a predictor of <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> ischemic events after first myocardial infarction: a 13-year follow-up.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Benyamini, Yael; Gerber, Yariv; Molshatzki, Noa; Goldbourt, Uri; Drory, Yaacov</p> <p>2014-04-01</p> <p>Following the trajectory hypothesis for the validity of self-<span class="hlt">rated</span> health (SRH), we tested whether subjective recovery of health, that is, return to the same or higher level of SRH after a major health event, independently predicts better long-term prognosis. Participants were 640 patients (≤ 65 years) admitted to the eight medical centers in central Israel with incident MI in a 1-year period (mean age 54, 17% female). Baseline data were collected within days of the index MI. SRH in the preceding year was assessed at baseline, and current SRH was assessed 3-6 months later. <span class="hlt">Recurrent</span> ischemic events (<span class="hlt">recurrent</span> MI, hospitalization with unstable angina pectoris, or cardiac death) were recorded during a mean follow-up of 13 years. A reduced risk of <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> events was associated with an upward change of one level (e.g., from 3 at T1 to 4 at T2) in SRH (HR = 0.76, 95%CI: 0.69-0.85), controlling for baseline retrospective SRH. Risk was still significantly lower for each unit of improvement after adjusting for sociodemographics, preevent comorbidity, cardiac risk factors, MI severity, and early post-MI events (HR = 0.85, 95% CI 0.75-0.95). Individuals who perceived themselves 3-6 months after a first MI to be healthier than they had been in the year preceding the MI were more likely to survive event-free throughout the next 13 years, controlling for baseline retrospective SRH and multiple cardiac risk factors. Failure to experience such subjective recovery of one's health is a serious risk factor, which indicates that SRH should be monitored regularly after a MI.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/kids/','NIH-MEDLINEPLUS'); return false;" href="https://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/kids/"><span><span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> for Kids</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://medlineplus.gov/">MedlinePlus</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>... across a fault to learn about past <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Science Fair Projects A GPS instrument measures slow movements of the ground. Become an <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Scientist Cool <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Facts Today in <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> History A scientist stands in ...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.S21D..03N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.S21D..03N"><span>Variability of <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> interval for New Zealand surface-rupturing paleoearthquakes</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Nicol, A., , Prof; Robinson, R., Jr.; Van Dissen, R. J.; Harvison, A.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> interval (RI) for successive <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on individual faults is recorded by paleoseismic datasets for surface-rupturing <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> which, in New Zealand, have magnitudes of >Mw ~6 to 7.2 depending on the thickness of the brittle crust. New Zealand faults examined have mean RI of ~130 to 8500 yrs, with an upper bound censored by the sample duration (<30 kyr) and an inverse relationship to fault slip <span class="hlt">rate</span>. Frequency histograms, probability density functions (PDFs) and coefficient of variation (CoV= standard deviation/arithmetic mean) values have been used to quantify RI variability for geological and simulated <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on >100 New Zealand active faults. RI for individual faults can vary by more than an order of magnitude. CoV of RI for paleoearthquake data comprising 4-10 events ranges from ~0.2 to 1 with a mean of 0.6±0.2. These values are generally comparable to simulated <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (>100 events per fault) and suggest that RI ranges from quasi periodic (e.g., ~0.2-0.5) to random (e.g., ~1.0). Comparison of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> simulation and paleoearthquake data indicates that the mean and CoV of RI can be strongly influenced by sampling artefacts including; the magnitude of completeness, the dimensionality of spatial sampling and the duration of the sample period. Despite these sampling issues RI for the best of the geological data (i.e. >6 events) and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> simulations are described by log-normal or Weibull distributions with long <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> tails (~3 times the mean) and provide a basis for quantifying real RI variability (rather than sampling artefacts). Our analysis indicates that CoV of RI is negatively related to fault slip <span class="hlt">rate</span>. These data are consistent with the notion that fault interaction and associated stress perturbations arising from slip on larger faults are more likely to advance or retard future slip on smaller faults than visa versa.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.G41B0484Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.G41B0484Z"><span>Combination of High <span class="hlt">Rate</span>, Real-Time GNSS and Accelerometer Observations and Rapid Seismic Event Notification for <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Early Warning and Volcano Monitoring with a Focus on the Pacific Rim.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zimakov, L. G.; Passmore, P.; Raczka, J.; Alvarez, M.; Jackson, M.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>Scientific GNSS networks are moving towards a model of real-time data acquisition, epoch-by-epoch storage integrity, and on-board real-time position and displacement calculations. This new paradigm allows the integration of real-time, high-<span class="hlt">rate</span> GNSS displacement information with acceleration and velocity data to create very high-<span class="hlt">rate</span> displacement records. The mating of these two instruments allows the creation of a new, very high-<span class="hlt">rate</span> (200 sps) displacement observable that has the full-scale displacement characteristics of GNSS and high-precision dynamic motions of seismic technologies. It is envisioned that these new observables can be used for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> early warning studies, volcano monitoring, and critical infrastructure monitoring applications. Our presentation will focus on the characteristics of GNSS, seismic, and strong motion sensors in high dynamic environments, including historic <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in Southern California and the Pacific Rim, replicated on a shake table, over a range of displacements and frequencies. We will explore the optimum integration of these sensors from a filtering perspective including simple harmonic impulses over varying frequencies and amplitudes and under the dynamic conditions of various <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> scenarios. In addition we will discuss implementation of a Rapid Seismic Event Notification System that provides quick delivery of digital data from seismic stations to the acquisition and processing center and a full data integrity model for real-time <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> notification that provides warning prior to significant ground shaking.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29721609','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29721609"><span>MMP-7 expression may influence the <span class="hlt">rate</span> of distant <span class="hlt">recurrences</span> and disease-specific survival in HPV-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Vento, Seija I; Jouhi, Lauri; Mohamed, Hesham; Haglund, Caj; Mäkitie, Antti A; Atula, Timo; Hagström, Jaana; Mäkinen, Laura K</p> <p>2018-05-02</p> <p>The objective of this study was to determine if matrix metalloproteinase-7 (MMP-7) expression is related to human papilloma virus (HPV) status, clinical parameters, and outcome in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). Tumor tissue specimens from 201 OPSCC patients treated with curative intent were available for immunohistochemistry, and the samples were stained with monoclonal MMP-7 antibody. All the patients were followed up at least 3 years or until death. MMP-7 expression did not differ between HPV-positive and HPV-negative patients. MMP-7 was not prognostic among patients with HPV-negative OPSCC. In the HPV-positive subgroup, patients with moderate, high, or very high MMP-7 expression had significantly worse 5-year disease-specific survival (DSS) (56.6%) than patients with absent, or low MMP-7 expression (77.2%), and MMP-7 expression appeared as a prognostic factor in the multivariate analysis. In addition, among HPV-positive OPSCC with moderate, high, or very high MMP-7 expression, the 5-year distant <span class="hlt">recurrence</span>-free survival was significantly lower (69.6%) than in those who had low or absent MMP-7 expression (97.5%). Our results suggest that among HPV-positive OPSCC patients, high MMP-7 expression is related to worse 5-year DSS and increased <span class="hlt">rate</span> of distant <span class="hlt">recurrences</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1910909C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1910909C"><span>Seismic hazard assessment over time: Modelling <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in Taiwan</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chan, Chung-Han; Wang, Yu; Wang, Yu-Ju; Lee, Ya-Ting</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>To assess the seismic hazard with temporal change in Taiwan, we develop a new approach, combining both the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) model and the Coulomb stress change, and implement the seismogenic source parameters by the Taiwan <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Model (TEM). The BPT model was adopted to describe the rupture <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> intervals of the specific fault sources, together with the time elapsed since the last fault-rupture to derive their long-term rupture probability. We also evaluate the short-term seismicity <span class="hlt">rate</span> change based on the static Coulomb stress interaction between seismogenic sources. By considering above time-dependent factors, our new combined model suggests an increased long-term seismic hazard in the vicinity of active faults along the western Coastal Plain and the Longitudinal Valley, where active faults have short <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> intervals and long elapsed time since their last ruptures, and/or short-term elevated hazard levels right after the occurrence of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> due to the stress triggering effect. The stress enhanced by the February 6th, 2016, Meinong ML 6.6 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> also significantly increased rupture probabilities of several neighbouring seismogenic sources in Southwestern Taiwan and raised hazard level in the near future. Our approach draws on the advantage of incorporating long- and short-term models, to provide time-dependent <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> probability constraints. Our time-dependent model considers more detailed information than any other published models. It thus offers decision-makers and public officials an adequate basis for rapid evaluations of and response to future emergency scenarios such as victim relocation and sheltering.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70036936','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70036936"><span><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> impact scale</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Wald, D.J.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Marano, K.D.; Bausch, D.</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>With the advent of the USGS prompt assessment of global <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> for response (PAGER) system, which rapidly assesses <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> impacts, U.S. and international <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> responders are reconsidering their automatic alert and activation levels and response procedures. To help facilitate rapid and appropriate <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> response, an <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Impact Scale (EIS) is proposed on the basis of two complementary criteria. On the basis of the estimated cost of damage, one is most suitable for domestic events; the other, on the basis of estimated ranges of fatalities, is generally more appropriate for global events, particularly in developing countries. Simple thresholds, derived from the systematic analysis of past <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> impact and associated response levels, are quite effective in communicating predicted impact and response needed after an event through alerts of green (little or no impact), yellow (regional impact and response), orange (national-scale impact and response), and red (international response). Corresponding fatality thresholds for yellow, orange, and red alert levels are 1, 100, and 1,000, respectively. For damage impact, yellow, orange, and red thresholds are triggered by estimated losses reaching $1M, $100M, and $1B, respectively. The rationale for a dual approach to <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> alerting stems from the recognition that relatively high fatalities, injuries, and homelessness predominate in countries in which local building practices typically lend themselves to high collapse and casualty <span class="hlt">rates</span>, and these impacts lend to prioritization for international response. In contrast, financial and overall societal impacts often trigger the level of response in regions or countries in which prevalent <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> resistant construction practices greatly reduce building collapse and resulting fatalities. Any newly devised alert, whether economic- or casualty-based, should be intuitive and consistent with established lexicons and procedures. Useful alerts should</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED094148.pdf','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED094148.pdf"><span><span class="hlt">Recurrent</span> Education.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Mushkin, Selma J., Ed.</p> <p></p> <p>The volume presents 24 papers deriving from the March 1973, Georgetown University Conference of <span class="hlt">Recurrent</span> Education, the first major meeting on <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> education to be held in the United States. The conference findings underscore the many problems and issues favoring greater flexibility in the timing of education and educational systems that…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.T23F0665M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.T23F0665M"><span>Two-dimensional analysis of post-seismic deformation of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> with <span class="hlt">rate</span>-and-state friction and non-linear rock rheology</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Muto, J.; Moore, J. D. P.; Barbot, S.; Iinuma, T.; Ohta, Y.; Horiuchi, S.; Hikaru, I.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>We conduct a two-dimensional (2D) analysis of the post-seismic deformation of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> with the nonlinear coupling between frictional afterslip and viscoelastic flow. We consider slip on the plate boundary and distributed viscous flow of the lower crust and mantle. We created 2D transects across the Miyagi-Yamagata area where the largest coseismic slip was observed. We use the stress change by the coseismic slip model of Iinuma et al. (2012) to drive the post-seismic relaxation. The simulation is performed by the integral method (Lambert & Barbot, 2016) expanded to plane strain (Barbot, Moore, & Lambert, 2017). Despite the simple 2D approximation, we look for a realistic model compatible with mineral physics to explain geodetic observations including 5 years of seafloor observations (Tomita et al., 2017). In the ductile regions, the model employs a bi-viscous Burgers rheology with power-law flow (Masuti et al., 2016). The steady-state viscosity is estimated based on a thermal structure obtained by thermal-flow model including the wedge corner flow (Horiuchi & Iwamori, 2016). We model afterslip by the regularized <span class="hlt">rate</span>-strengthening approximation of the <span class="hlt">rate</span>-and-state dependent friction law (Barbot et al., 2009). The combination of power-law rheology with stress-driven afterslip explains the observed 2D displacement fields well during the 5-year post-seismic period. We also find that the model requires a low viscosity ( 1018 Pas) body beneath the quaternary volcano (Mt. Naruko) to reproduce the localized subsidence detected in the 9-month post-seismic period (Muto et al., 2016). The introduction of the low-viscosity body also reproduces quick recovery of the subsidence in the 5-year period. Equipped with a reference model that fits available geodetic observations, we discuss the importance of the mechanical coupling between afterslip and viscoelastic flow. We find that ignoring the traction change on the fault by viscoelastic flow introduces</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70016934','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70016934"><span>Wasatch fault zone, Utah - segmentation and history of Holocene <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Machette, Michael N.; Personius, Stephen F.; Nelson, Alan R.; Schwartz, David P.; Lund, William R.</p> <p>1991-01-01</p> <p>The Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) forms the eastern boundary of the Basin and Range province and is the longest continuous, active normal fault (343 km) in the United States. It underlies an urban corridor of 1.6 million people (80% of Utah's population) representing the largest <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> risk in the interior of the western United States. The authors have used paleoseismological data to identify 10 discrete segments of the WFZ. Five are active, medial segments with Holocene slip <span class="hlt">rates</span> of 1-2 mm a-1, <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> intervals of 2000-4000 years and average lengths of about 50 km. Five are less active, distal segments with mostly pre-Holocene surface ruptures, late Quaternary slip <span class="hlt">rates</span> of <0.5 mm a-1, <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> intervals of ???10,000 years and average lengths of about 20 km. Surface-faulting events on each of the medial segments of the WFZ formed 2-4-m-high scarps repeatedly during the Holocene. Paleoseismological records for the past 6000 years indicate that a major surface-rupturing <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> has occurred along one of the medial segments about every 395 ?? 60 years. However, between about 400 and 1500 years ago, the WFZ experienced six major surface-rupturing events, an average of one event every 220 years, or about twice as often as expected from the 6000-year record. Evidence has been found that surface-rupturing events occurred on the WFZ during the past 400 years, a time period which is twice the average intracluster <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> interval and equal to the average Holocene <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> interval.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28551737','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28551737"><span><span class="hlt">Recurrent</span> Meningitis.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Rosenberg, Jon; Galen, Benjamin T</p> <p>2017-07-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Recurrent</span> meningitis is a rare clinical scenario that can be self-limiting or life threatening depending on the underlying etiology. This review describes the causes, risk factors, treatment, and prognosis for <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> meningitis. As a general overview of a broad topic, the aim of this review is to provide clinicians with a comprehensive differential diagnosis to aide in the evaluation and management of a patient with <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> meningitis. New developments related to understanding the pathophysiology of <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> meningitis are as scarce as studies evaluating the treatment and prevention of this rare disorder. A trial evaluating oral valacyclovir suppression after HSV-2 meningitis did not demonstrate a benefit in preventing <span class="hlt">recurrences</span>. The data on prophylactic antibiotics after basilar skull fractures do not support their use. Intrathecal trastuzumab has shown promise in treating leptomeningeal carcinomatosis from HER-2 positive breast cancer. Monoclonal antibodies used to treat cancer and autoimmune diseases are new potential causes of drug-induced aseptic meningitis. Despite their potential for causing <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> meningitis, the clinical entities reviewed herein are not frequently discussed together given that they are a heterogeneous collection of unrelated, rare diseases. Epidemiologic data on <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> meningitis are lacking. The syndrome of <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> benign lymphocytic meningitis described by Mollaret in 1944 was later found to be closely related to HSV-2 reactivation, but HSV-2 is by no means the only etiology of <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> aseptic meningitis. While the mainstay of treatment for <span class="hlt">recurrent</span> meningitis is supportive care, it is paramount to ensure that reversible and treatable causes have been addressed for further prevention.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70191859','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70191859"><span>Ground-rupturing <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on the northern Big Bend of the San Andreas Fault, California, 800 A.D. to Present</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Scharer, Katherine M.; Weldon, Ray; Biasi, Glenn; Streig, Ashley; Fumal, Thomas E.</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Paleoseismic data on the timing of ground-rupturing <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> constrain the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> behavior of active faults and can provide insight on the rupture history of a fault if <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> dated at neighboring sites overlap in age and are considered correlative. This study presents the evidence and ages for 11 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> that occurred along the Big Bend section of the southern San Andreas Fault at the Frazier Mountain paleoseismic site. The most recent <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> to rupture the site was the Mw7.7–7.9 Fort Tejon <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> of 1857. We use over 30 trench excavations to document the structural and sedimentological evolution of a small pull-apart basin that has been repeatedly faulted and folded by ground-rupturing <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. A sedimentation <span class="hlt">rate</span> of 0.4 cm/yr and abundant organic material for radiocarbon dating contribute to a record that is considered complete since 800 A.D. and includes 10 paleoearthquakes. <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> have ruptured this location on average every ~100 years over the last 1200 years, but individual intervals range from ~22 to 186 years. The coefficient of variation of the length of time between <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (0.7) indicates quasiperiodic behavior, similar to other sites along the southern San Andreas Fault. Comparison with the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> chronology at neighboring sites along the fault indicates that only one other 1857-size <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> could have occurred since 1350 A.D., and since 800 A.D., the Big Bend and Mojave sections have ruptured together at most 50% of the time in Mw ≥ 7.3 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29238614','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29238614"><span><span class="hlt">Recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> and need for reoperation after surgery with or without internal limiting membrane removal for the treatment of the epiretinal membrane.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>De Novelli, Fernando José; Goldbaum, Mauro; Monteiro, Mario Luiz Ribeiro; Aggio, Fabio Bom; Nóbrega, Mario Junqueira; Takahashi, Walter Yukihiko</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>To compare the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> and need for reoperation after epiretinal membrane surgery with and without removal of the internal limiting membrane. In this retrospective study, 125 patients operated for epiretinal membrane removal were evaluated, with a minimum 6-month follow-up. Removal of the epiretinal membrane (ERM) was performed in 78 patients, while 47 had removal of the epiretinal membrane associated with internal limiting membrane peeling (ERM + ILM). The mean age in the ERM group was 65.8 years old, ranging from 41 to 80 years old. In the ERM + ILM group, the mean age was 67.2 years old, ranging from 52 to 82 years old. The mean preoperative visual acuity in the ERM group was 20/80p, and in the ERM + ILM group, it was 20/80. The mean postoperative visual acuity in both groups was 20/30. The mean preoperative macular thickness in the ERM group was 467 µm ranging from 281 to 663 µm; in the ERM + ILM group, the preoperative macular thickness was 497 µm, ranging from 172 to 798 µm. After surgery, a reduction in macular thickness was observed in both groups. In the ERM group, the mean macular thickness reduction was 361 ± 101. µm, whereas in the ERM + ILM group, it was 367 ± 75.2 µm. Twenty-two patients presented with a <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> of epiretinal membrane, of which 16 (20.5%) were from the ERM group and 6 (12.8%) were from the ERM + ILM group (p = 0.39); one patient (2%) was retreated in the ERM + ILM group, whereas 5 patients (6%) where retreated in the ERM group. We postulate that ILM peeling for the treatment of epiretinal membrane is not a relevant factor either for visual recovery or macular thickness reduction, but it may reduce the <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> and reoperation <span class="hlt">rate</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3404904','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3404904"><span>Cyclin A1 shows age-related expression in benign tonsils, HPV16-dependent overexpression in HNSCC and predicts lower <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> in HNSCC independently of HPV16</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p></p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Background Promoter methylation of the tumor suppressor gene Cyclin A1 could be associated with Human Papillomavirus 16 (HPV16) induced Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) and Cervical Carcinoma. There is disagreement about the impact of this epigenetic event on protein expression of Cyclin A1 in malignant and non-malignant tissue and there hardly exists any information about possible relationships between Cyclin A1 expression and clinicopathological characteristics in HNSCC. Methods We analyzed protein expression of Cyclin A1 in 81 HNSCC and 74 benign tonsils by immunohistochemistry and correlated it to Cyclin A1 methylation status, presence of HPV16 infection and other clinicopathological characteristics. Results Overexpression of Cyclin A1 was more present in HNSCC than in tonsils (p < 0.001). In both entities, HNSCC and benign tonsils, expression of Cyclin A1 significantly correlated with the expression of Cyclin-dependent kinase-inhibitor p16 (p = 0.000672 and 0.00495). In tonsils, expression of Cyclin A1 was inversely proportional to age (p = 0.00000396), and further correlated with expression of tumor suppressor gene p53 (p = 0.000228). In HNSCC Cyclin A1 expression was associated with the presence of HPV16 DNA (p = 0.0014) and a lower <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> in univariate and multivariate analysis (p = 0.002 and 0.013). Neither in HNSCC nor in tonsils Cyclin A1 expression correlated with promoter methylation. Conclusions Cyclin A1 is an important cell cycle regulator with age-related increased expression in tonsils of children. HPV16 induces overexpression of Cyclin A1 in HNSCC despite promoter methylation. Overexpression of Cyclin A1 predicts a lower <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> <span class="hlt">rate</span> in HNSCC independently of HPV16. PMID:22712549</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20030020856','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20030020856"><span>Crustal Deformation in Southcentral Alaska: The 1964 Prince William Sound <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Subduction Zone</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Cohen, Steven C.; Freymueller, Jeffrey T.</p> <p>2003-01-01</p> <p> throughout the several hundred year <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> time for great <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The nearly 10 mm/yr uplift <span class="hlt">rate</span> at Seldovia on the Kenai Peninsula is an example.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUSM.U51A..03G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUSM.U51A..03G"><span>Holocene turbidite and onshore paleoseismic record of great <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on the Cascadia Subduction Zone: relevance for the Sumatra 2004 Great <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Gutierrez-Pastor, J.; Nelson, C. H.; Goldfinger, C.; Johnson, J.</p> <p>2005-05-01</p> <p>Marine turbidite stratigraphy, onshore paleoseismic records of tsunami sand beds and co-seismic subsidence (Atwater and Hemphill-Haley, 1997; Kelsey et al., 2002; Witter et al., 2003) and tsunami sands of Japan (Satake et al., 1996) all show evidence for great <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (M ~ 9) on the Cascadia Subduction Zone. When a great <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> shakes 1000 kilometers of the Cascadia margin, sediment failures occur in all tributary canyons and resulting turbidity currents travel down the canyon systems and deposit synchronous turbidites in abyssal seafloor channels. These turbidite records provide a deepwater paleoseismic record of great <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. An onshore paleoseismic record develops from rapid coseismic subsidence resulting in buried marshes and drowned forests, and subsequent tsunami sand layer deposition. The Cascadia Basin provides the longest paleoseismic record of great <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> that is presently available for a subduction zone. A total of 17 synchronous turbidites have deposited along ~700 km of the Cascadia margin during the Holocene time of ~10,000 cal yr. Because the youngest paleoseismic event in all turbidite and onshore records is 300 AD, the average <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> interval of Great <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> is ~ 600 yr. At least 6 smaller events have also ruptured shorter margin segments. Linkage of the rupture length of these events comes from relative dating tools such as the "confluence test" of Adams (1990), radiocarbon ages of onshore and offshore events and physical property correlation of individual event "signatures". We use both 14C ages and analysis of hemipelagic sediment thickness between turbidites (H), where H/sedimentation <span class="hlt">rate</span> = time between turbidite events to develop two <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> histories. Utilizing the most reliable 14C and hemipelagic data sets from turbidites for the past ~ 5000 yr, the minimum <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> time is ~ 300 yr and maximum time is ~ 1300 yr. There also is a <span class="hlt">recurrence</span> pattern through the entire Holocene that consists of a long time</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.mapstore.utah.gov/uga46.html','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://www.mapstore.utah.gov/uga46.html"><span>The history of late holocene surface-faulting <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on the central segments of the Wasatch fault zone, Utah</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Duross, Christopher; Personius, Stephen; Olig, Susan S; Crone, Anthony J.; Hylland, Michael D.; Lund, William R; Schwartz, David P.</p>