Sample records for earthquake related phenomena

  1. Luminous phenomena and electromagnetic VHF wave emission originated from earthquake-related radon exhalation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seki, A.; Tobo, I.; Omori, Y.; Muto, J.; Nagahama, H.

    2013-12-01

    Anomalous luminous phenomena and electromagnetic wave emission before or during earthquakes have been reported (e.g., the 1965 Matsushiro earthquake swarm). However, their mechanism is still unsolved, in spite of many models for these phenomena. Here, we propose a new model about luminous phenomena and electromagnetic wave emission during earthquake by focusing on atmospheric radon (Rn-222) and its daughter nuclides (Po-218 and Po-214). Rn-222, Po-218 and Po-214 are alpha emitters, and these alpha particles ionize atmospheric molecules. A light emission phenomenon, called 'the air luminescence', is caused by de-excitation of the ionized molecules of atmospheric nitrogen due to electron impact ionization from alpha particles. The de-excitation is from the second positive system of neutral nitrogen molecules and the first negative system of nitrogen molecule ion. Wavelengths of lights by these transitions include the visible light wavelength. So based on this mechanism, we proposed a new luminous phenomenon model before or during earthquake: 1. The concentration of atmospheric radon and its daughter nuclides increase anomalously before or during earthquakes, 2. Nitrogen molecules and their ions are excited by alpha particles emitted from Rn-222, Po-218 and Po-214, and air luminescence is generated by their de-excitation. Similarly, electromagnetic VHF wave emission can be explained by ionizing effect of radon and its daughter nuclides. Boyarchuk et al. (2005) proposed a model that electromagnetic VHF wave emission is originated when excited state of neutral clusters changes. Radon gas ionizes atmosphere and forms positively and negatively charged heavy particles. The process of ion hydration in ordinary air can be determined by the formation of complex chemically active structures of the various types of ion radicals. As a result of the association of such hydration radical ions, a neutral cluster, which is dipole quasi-molecules, is formed. A neutral cluster

  2. Gas and Dust Phenomena of Mega-earthquakes and the Cause

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yue, Z.

    2013-12-01

    A mega-earthquake suddenly releases a large to extremely large amount of kinetic energy within a few tens to two hundreds seconds and over ten to hundreds kilometer distances in the Earth's crust and on ground surface. It also generates seismic waves that can be received globally and co-seismic ground damages such co-seismic ruptures and landslides. However, such vast, dramatic and devastating kinetic actions in the Earth's crustal rocks and on the ground soils cannot be known or predicted by people at few weeks, days, hours, or minutes before they are happening. Although seismologists can develop and use seismometers to report the locations and magnitudes of earthquakes within minutes of their occurrence, they cannot predict earthquakes at present. Therefore, damage earthquakes have caused and would continue to cause huge disasters, fatalities and injuries to our human beings. This problem may indicate that it is necessary to re-examine the cause of mega-earthquakes in addition to the conventional cause of active fault elastic rebounding. In the last ten years, many mega-earthquakes occurred in China and around the Pacific Ocean and caused many casualties to human beings and devastating disasters to environments. The author will give a brief review on the impacts of the mega-earthquakes happened in recent years. He will then present many gas and dust related phenomena associated with the sudden occurrences of these mega earthquakes. They include the 2001 Kunlunshan Earthquake M8.1, 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake M8.0 and the 2010 Yushu Earthquake M7.1 in China, the 2010 Haiti Earthquake M7.0, the 2010 Mexicali Earthquake M7.2, the 2010 Chile Earthquake M8.8, the 2011 Christchurch earthquake M6.3 and the 2011 Japan Earthquake M9.0 around the Pacific Ocean. He will discuss the cause of these gas and dust related phenomena. He will use these phenomena and their common cause to show that the earthquakes were caused the rapid migration and expansion of highly compressed and

  3. An integrated perspective of the continuum between earthquakes and slow-slip phenomena

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peng, Zhigang; Gomberg, Joan

    2010-01-01

    The discovery of slow-slip phenomena has revolutionized our understanding of how faults accommodate relative plate motions. Faults were previously thought to relieve stress either through continuous aseismic sliding, or as earthquakes resulting from instantaneous failure of locked faults. In contrast, slow-slip events proceed so slowly that slip is limited and only low-frequency (or no) seismic waves radiate. We find that slow-slip phenomena are not unique to the depths (tens of kilometres) of subduction zone plate interfaces. They occur on faults in many settings, at numerous scales and owing to various loading processes, including landslides and glaciers. Taken together, the observations indicate that slowly slipping fault surfaces relax most of the accrued stresses through aseismic slip. Aseismic motion can trigger more rapid slip elsewhere on the fault that is sufficiently fast to generate seismic waves. The resulting radiation has characteristics ranging from those indicative of slow but seismic slip, to those typical of earthquakes. The mode of seismic slip depends on the inherent characteristics of the fault, such as the frictional properties. Slow-slip events have previously been classified as a distinct mode of fault slip compared with that seen in earthquakes. We conclude that instead, slip modes span a continuum and are of common occurrence.

  4. Slow-Slip Phenomena Represented by the One-Dimensional Burridge-Knopoff Model of Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kawamura, Hikaru; Yamamoto, Maho; Ueda, Yushi

    2018-05-01

    Slow-slip phenomena, including afterslips and silent earthquakes, are studied using a one-dimensional Burridge-Knopoff model that obeys the rate-and-state dependent friction law. By varying only a few model parameters, this simple model allows reproducing a variety of seismic slips within a single framework, including main shocks, precursory nucleation processes, afterslips, and silent earthquakes.

  5. Electromagnetic earthquake triggering phenomena: State-of-the-art research and future developments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeigarnik, Vladimir; Novikov, Victor

    2014-05-01

    of geoacoustic emission recorded in the wells at a distance of 7-12 km from the emitting dipole to the ERGU-600 pulses confirmed the effects of an influence of electromagnetic field on the deformation processes in the Earth crust and the real existence of electromagnetic triggering phenomena. For verification of results of field observations laboratory studies of behavior of rock samples under critical stress-strain state and external electric actions were carried out at the spring and lever presses, as well as at the stick-slip models simulated the seismic cycle (stress accumulation and discharge) in the seismogenic geological fault. Various possible mechanisms of weak electrical stimulation (electric current density 10-7-10-8 mA/cm2 at a depth of earthquake epicenters of 5 to10 km) of deformation processes in the Earth crust, including increased fluid pore pressure, electrokinetic phenomena, magnetostriction, electrical stimulation of fluid migration into the fault area are considered. However, the mechanism of electromagnetic earthquake triggering phenomena is still open. Based on the field observations of electromagnetic triggering of weak seismicity resulting in a partial safe release of stresses in the Earth crust a possibility of control of seismic process is considered for risk reduction of catastrophic earthquakes. The results obtained from field and laboratory experiments on electromagnetic initiation of seismic events allow to consider a problem of lithosphere-ionosphere relations from another point of view. Keeping in mind that the current density generated in the Earth crust by artificial electric source is comparable with the density of telluric currents induced during severe ionospheric disturbances (e.g., magnetic storms) it may be possible under certain favorable conditions in lithosphere to initiate earthquakes by electromagnetic disturbances in ionosphere. A possibility of application of these triggering phenomena for short-term earthquake

  6. Earthquake prediction with electromagnetic phenomena

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hayakawa, Masashi, E-mail: hayakawa@hi-seismo-em.jp; Advanced Wireless & Communications Research Center, UEC, Chofu Tokyo; Earthquake Analysis Laboratory, Information Systems Inc., 4-8-15, Minami-aoyama, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 107-0062

    Short-term earthquake (EQ) prediction is defined as prospective prediction with the time scale of about one week, which is considered to be one of the most important and urgent topics for the human beings. If this short-term prediction is realized, casualty will be drastically reduced. Unlike the conventional seismic measurement, we proposed the use of electromagnetic phenomena as precursors to EQs in the prediction, and an extensive amount of progress has been achieved in the field of seismo-electromagnetics during the last two decades. This paper deals with the review on this short-term EQ prediction, including the impossibility myth of EQsmore » prediction by seismometers, the reason why we are interested in electromagnetics, the history of seismo-electromagnetics, the ionospheric perturbation as the most promising candidate of EQ prediction, then the future of EQ predictology from two standpoints of a practical science and a pure science, and finally a brief summary.« less

  7. Earthquake prediction: the interaction of public policy and science.

    PubMed Central

    Jones, L M

    1996-01-01

    Earthquake prediction research has searched for both informational phenomena, those that provide information about earthquake hazards useful to the public, and causal phenomena, causally related to the physical processes governing failure on a fault, to improve our understanding of those processes. Neither informational nor causal phenomena are a subset of the other. I propose a classification of potential earthquake predictors of informational, causal, and predictive phenomena, where predictors are causal phenomena that provide more accurate assessments of the earthquake hazard than can be gotten from assuming a random distribution. Achieving higher, more accurate probabilities than a random distribution requires much more information about the precursor than just that it is causally related to the earthquake. PMID:11607656

  8. Period doubling and other nonlinear phenomena in volcanic earthquakes and tremor

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Julian, B.R.

    2000-01-01

    Evidence of subharmonic period-doubling cascades has recently been recognized in seismograms of volcanic tremor from several volcanoes. This phenomenon occurs only in nonlinear systems, and is the commonest route by which such systems change from periodic to chaotic behavior. It is predicted to occur in a model of volcanic tremor excitation by flow-induced vibration, and it might well also occur in other volcano-seismic source process. If the possibility of period doubling is not taken into account in interpreting spectra of tremor and long-period earthquakes, then low-frequency "sub-harmonic" oscillations may be mis-identified as normal modes of a linear acoustic resonator, leading to errors of an order of magnitude or more in inferred magma-body dimensions. This example illustrates the importance of nonlinear phenomena in attempts to understand volcano-seismic phenomena physically. Linear systems are fundamentally incapable of causing earthquakes or exciting tremor, so nonlinearity is essential to any theory of volcano-seismic phenomena. Nonlinear processes are in many respects qualitatively different from linear ones. A few of their characteristics that might be relevant in volcanoes include the possibility: (1) that damping might increase, rather than decrease, oscillation frequencies; and (2) that these frequencies might be functions of the amplitude of oscillation, so that temporal variations in spectral peak frequencies might not be manifestations of changes of conditions within the magmatic system.

  9. Structural variation along the southwestern Nankai seismogenic zone related to various earthquake phenomena

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakanishi, A.; Shimomura, N.; Kodaira, S.; Obana, K.; Takahashi, T.; Yamamoto, Y.; Sato, T.; Kashiwase, K.; Fujimori, H.; Kaneda, Y.; Mochizuki, K.; Kato, A.; Iidaka, T.; Kurashimo, E.; Shinohara, M.; Takeda, T.; Shiomi, K.

    2011-12-01

    In the Nankai Trough subduction seismogenic zone, the Nankai and Tonankai earthquakes had often occurred simultaneously, and caused a great event. In order to reduce a great deal of damage to coastal area from both strong ground motion and tsunami generation, it is necessary to understand rupture synchronization and segmentation of the Nankai megathrust earthquake. For a precise estimate of the rupture area of the Nankai megathrust event, it is important to know the geometry of the subducting Philippine Sea plate and deep subduction structure along the Nankai Trough. To obtain the deep subduction structure of the coseismic rupture area of the Nankai earthquake in 1946 off Shikoku area, the large-scale high-resolution wide-angle seismic study was conducted in 2009 and 2010. In this study, 201 and 200 ocean bottom seismographs were deployed off the Shikoku Island and the Kii channel respectively. A tuned airgun system (7800 cu. in.) shot every 200m along 13 profiles. Airgun shots were also recorded along an onshore seismic profile (prepared by ERI, univ. of Tokyo and NIED) prolonged from the offshore profile off the Kii Peninsula. Long-term observation was conducted for ~9 months by 21 OBSs off the Shikoku area and 20 OBSs off the Kii channel.This research is part of 'Research concerning Interaction Between the Tokai, Tonankai and Nankai Earthquakes' funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan. Structural images of the overriding plate indicate the old accreted sediments (the Cretaceous-Tertiary accretionary prism) with the velocity greater than 6km/s extend seaward from off the Shikoku to the Hyuga-nada. Moreover, the young accreted sediments become relatively thinner eastward from off the cape Ashizuri to Muroto. These structural variations might be related to the different rupture pattern of the Nankai event. Structural image of the deep low frequency earthquakes and tremors is shown by using the airgun shots recorded at onshore

  10. Comparative study of earthquake-related and non-earthquake-related head traumas using multidetector computed tomography

    PubMed Central

    Chu, Zhi-gang; Yang, Zhi-gang; Dong, Zhi-hui; Chen, Tian-wu; Zhu, Zhi-yu; Shao, Heng

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The features of earthquake-related head injuries may be different from those of injuries obtained in daily life because of differences in circumstances. We aim to compare the features of head traumas caused by the Sichuan earthquake with those of other common head traumas using multidetector computed tomography. METHODS: In total, 221 patients with earthquake-related head traumas (the earthquake group) and 221 patients with other common head traumas (the non-earthquake group) were enrolled in our study, and their computed tomographic findings were compared. We focused the differences between fractures and intracranial injuries and the relationships between extracranial and intracranial injuries. RESULTS: More earthquake-related cases had only extracranial soft tissue injuries (50.7% vs. 26.2%, RR = 1.9), and fewer cases had intracranial injuries (17.2% vs. 50.7%, RR = 0.3) compared with the non-earthquake group. For patients with fractures and intracranial injuries, there were fewer cases with craniocerebral injuries in the earthquake group (60.6% vs. 77.9%, RR = 0.8), and the earthquake-injured patients had fewer fractures and intracranial injuries overall (1.5±0.9 vs. 2.5±1.8; 1.3±0.5 vs. 2.1±1.1). Compared with the non-earthquake group, the incidences of soft tissue injuries and cranial fractures combined with intracranial injuries in the earthquake group were significantly lower (9.8% vs. 43.7%, RR = 0.2; 35.1% vs. 82.2%, RR = 0.4). CONCLUSION: As depicted with computed tomography, the severity of earthquake-related head traumas in survivors was milder, and isolated extracranial injuries were more common in earthquake-related head traumas than in non-earthquake-related injuries, which may have been the result of different injury causes, mechanisms and settings. PMID:22012045

  11. Discrete Scaling in Earthquake Precursory Phenomena: Evidence in the Kobe Earthquake, Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johansen, Anders; Sornette, Didier; Wakita, Hiroshi; Tsunogai, Urumu; Newman, William I.; Saleur, Hubert

    1996-10-01

    We analyze the ion concentration of groundwater issuing from deep wells located near the epicenter of the recent earthquake of magnitude 6.9 near Kobe, Japan, on January 17, 1995. These concentrations are well fitted by log-periodic modulations around a leading power law. The exponent (real and imaginary parts) is very close to those already found for the fits of precursory seismic activity for Loma Prieta and the Aleutian Islands. This brings further support for the general hypothesis that complex critical exponents are a general phenomenon in irreversible self-organizing systems and particularly in rupture and earthquake phenomena. Nous analysons les fluctuations de concentrations ioniques de l'eau issue de puits profonds situés à proximité de l'épicentre du récent tremblement de terre de magnitude 6.9 proche de Kobe au Japon, le 17 janvier 1995. Ces fluctuations sont bien reproduites par des modulations log-périodiques autour d'une loi de puissance. Les parties réelle et imaginaire de l'exposant sont très proches de celles trouvées précédemment pour les tremblements de terre de Loma Prieta et des Iles Aléoutiennes. Ces résultats renforcent l'hypothèse que des exposants critiques complexes sont une propriété générale des phénomènes de croissance irréversible, et en particulier des problèmes de rupture et des tremblements de terre.

  12. Earthquake-related versus non-earthquake-related injuries in spinal injury patients: differentiation with multidetector computed tomography

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Introduction In recent years, several massive earthquakes have occurred across the globe. Multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) is reliable in detecting spinal injuries. The purpose of this study was to compare the features of spinal injuries resulting from the Sichuan earthquake with those of non-earthquake-related spinal trauma using MDCT. Methods Features of spinal injuries of 223 Sichuan earthquake-exposed patients and 223 non-earthquake-related spinal injury patients were retrospectively compared using MDCT. The date of non-earthquake-related spinal injury patients was collected from 1 May 2009 to 22 July 2009 to avoid the confounding effects of seasonal activity and clothing. We focused on anatomic sites, injury types and neurologic deficits related to spinal injuries. Major injuries were classified according to the grid 3-3-3 scheme of the Magerl (AO) classification system. Results A total of 185 patients (82.96%) in the earthquake-exposed cohort experienced crush injuries. In the earthquake and control groups, 65 and 92 patients, respectively, had neurologic deficits. The anatomic distribution of these two cohorts was significantly different (P < 0.001). Cervical spinal injuries were more common in the control group (risk ratio (RR) = 2.12, P < 0.001), whereas lumbar spinal injuries were more common in the earthquake-related spinal injuries group (277 of 501 injured vertebrae; 55.29%). The major types of injuries were significantly different between these cohorts (P = 0.002). Magerl AO type A lesions composed most of the lesions seen in both of these cohorts. Type B lesions were more frequently seen in earthquake-related spinal injuries (RR = 1.27), while we observed type C lesions more frequently in subjects with non-earthquake-related spinal injuries (RR = 1.98, P = 0.0029). Conclusions Spinal injuries sustained in the Sichuan earthquake were located mainly in the lumbar spine, with a peak prevalence of type A lesions and a high occurrence of

  13. Analog earthquakes

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hofmann, R.B.

    1995-09-01

    Analogs are used to understand complex or poorly understood phenomena for which little data may be available at the actual repository site. Earthquakes are complex phenomena, and they can have a large number of effects on the natural system, as well as on engineered structures. Instrumental data close to the source of large earthquakes are rarely obtained. The rare events for which measurements are available may be used, with modfications, as analogs for potential large earthquakes at sites where no earthquake data are available. In the following, several examples of nuclear reactor and liquified natural gas facility siting are discussed.more » A potential use of analog earthquakes is proposed for a high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repository.« less

  14. Investigation of ionospheric precursors related to deep and intermediate earthquakes based on spectral and statistical analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oikonomou, Christina; Haralambous, Haris; Muslim, Buldan

    2017-01-01

    Ionospheric TEC (Total Electron Content) variations prior to the deep (≈600 km) earthquake doublet close to magnetic equator in Peru (M = 7.6) and to the intermediate (≈200 km) earthquake in Afghanistan (M = 7.5) during 2015 were investigated using measurements from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) network with the aim to detect possible ionospheric precursors of these events. For this we applied both statistical and spectral analysis. Ionospheric anomalies related to both earthquakes were observed few hours and few days prior to the earthquakes during daytime localized mainly near the epicenter. These were large-scale positive TEC anomalies and small-scale TEC oscillations with periods of 20 min and duration around 2-4 h appearing at the same local time each day. Several days prior to the earthquake in Peru a significant phenomenon was observed during afternoon time related to the modification of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) structure. During nighttime, however, it was not possible to identify any ionospheric earthquake precursor due to the concurrence of various phenomena, such as Equatorial Plasma Bubbles and pre- and post-midnight TEC peaks prior to Peru earthquake, and solar terminator transition prior to both earthquakes which could induce resembling ionospheric anomalies.

  15. Causal mechanisms of seismo-EM phenomena during the 1965-1967 Matsushiro earthquake swarm.

    PubMed

    Enomoto, Yuji; Yamabe, Tsuneaki; Okumura, Nobuo

    2017-03-21

    The 1965-1967 Matsushiro earthquake swarm in central Japan exhibited two unique characteristics. The first was a hydro-mechanical crust rupture resulting from degassing, volume expansion of CO 2 /water, and a crack opening within the critically stressed crust under a strike-slip stress. The other was, despite the lower total seismic energy, the occurrence of complexed seismo-electromagnetic (seismo-EM) phenomena of the geomagnetic intensity increase, unusual earthquake lights (EQLs) and atmospheric electric field (AEF) variations. Although the basic rupture process of this swarm of earthquakes is reasonably understood in terms of hydro-mechanical crust rupture, the associated seismo-EM processes remain largely unexplained. Here, we describe a series of seismo-EM mechanisms involved in the hydro-mechanical rupture process, as observed by coupling the electric interaction of rock rupture with CO 2 gas and the dielectric-barrier discharge of the modelled fields in laboratory experiments. We found that CO 2 gases passing through the newly created fracture surface of the rock were electrified to generate pressure-impressed current/electric dipoles, which could induce a magnetic field following Biot-Savart's law, decrease the atmospheric electric field and generate dielectric-barrier discharge lightning affected by the coupling effect between the seismic and meteorological activities.

  16. Causal mechanisms of seismo-EM phenomena during the 1965-1967 Matsushiro earthquake swarm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Enomoto, Yuji; Yamabe, Tsuneaki; Okumura, Nobuo

    2017-03-01

    The 1965-1967 Matsushiro earthquake swarm in central Japan exhibited two unique characteristics. The first was a hydro-mechanical crust rupture resulting from degassing, volume expansion of CO2/water, and a crack opening within the critically stressed crust under a strike-slip stress. The other was, despite the lower total seismic energy, the occurrence of complexed seismo-electromagnetic (seismo-EM) phenomena of the geomagnetic intensity increase, unusual earthquake lights (EQLs) and atmospheric electric field (AEF) variations. Although the basic rupture process of this swarm of earthquakes is reasonably understood in terms of hydro-mechanical crust rupture, the associated seismo-EM processes remain largely unexplained. Here, we describe a series of seismo-EM mechanisms involved in the hydro-mechanical rupture process, as observed by coupling the electric interaction of rock rupture with CO2 gas and the dielectric-barrier discharge of the modelled fields in laboratory experiments. We found that CO2 gases passing through the newly created fracture surface of the rock were electrified to generate pressure-impressed current/electric dipoles, which could induce a magnetic field following Biot-Savart’s law, decrease the atmospheric electric field and generate dielectric-barrier discharge lightning affected by the coupling effect between the seismic and meteorological activities.

  17. Assessment of precursory information in seismo-electromagnetic phenomena

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, P.; Hattori, K.; Zhuang, J.

    2017-12-01

    Previous statistical studies showed that there were correlations between seismo-electromagnetic phenomena and sizeable earthquakes in Japan. In this study, utilizing Molchan's error diagram, we evaluate whether these phenomena contain precursory information and discuss how they can be used in short-term forecasting of large earthquake events. In practice, for given series of precursory signals and related earthquake events, each prediction strategy is characterized by the leading time of alarms, the length of alarm window, the alarm radius (area) and magnitude. The leading time is the time length between a detected anomaly and its following alarm, and the alarm window is the duration that an alarm lasts. The alarm radius and magnitude are maximum predictable distance and minimum predictable magnitude of earthquake events, respectively. We introduce the modified probability gain (PG') and the probability difference (D') to quantify the forecasting performance and to explore the optimal prediction parameters for a given electromagnetic observation. The above methodology is firstly applied to ULF magnetic data and GPS-TEC data. The results show that the earthquake predictions based on electromagnetic anomalies are significantly better than random guesses, indicating the data contain potential useful precursory information. Meanwhile, we reveal the optimal prediction parameters for both observations. The methodology proposed in this study could be also applied to other pre-earthquake phenomena to find out whether there is precursory information, and then on this base explore the optimal alarm parameters in practical short-term forecast.

  18. Thoracic Injuries in earthquake-related versus non-earthquake-related trauma patients: differentiation via Multi-detector Computed Tomography.

    PubMed

    Dong, Zhi-Hui; Yang, Zhi-Gang; Chen, Tian-Wu; Chu, Zhi-Gang; Deng, Wen; Shao, Heng

    2011-01-01

    Massive earthquakes are harmful to humankind. This study of a historical cohort aimed to investigate the difference between earthquake-related crush thoracic traumas and thoracic traumas unrelated to earthquakes using a multi-detector Computed Tomography (CT). We retrospectively compared an earthquake-exposed cohort of 215 thoracic trauma crush victims of the Sichuan earthquake to a cohort of 215 non-earthquake-related thoracic trauma patients, focusing on the lesions and coexisting injuries to the thoracic cage and the pulmonary parenchyma and pleura using a multi-detector CT. The incidence of rib fracture was elevated in the earthquake-exposed cohort (143 vs. 66 patients in the non-earthquake-exposed cohort, Risk Ratio (RR) = 2.2; p<0.001). Among these patients, those with more than 3 fractured ribs (106/143 vs. 41/66 patients, RR=1.2; p<0.05) or flail chest (45/143 vs. 11/66 patients, RR=1.9; p<0.05) were more frequently seen in the earthquake cohort. Earthquake-related crush injuries more frequently resulted in bilateral rib fractures (66/143 vs. 18/66 patients, RR= 1.7; p<0.01). Additionally, the incidence of non-rib fracture was higher in the earthquake cohort (85 vs. 60 patients, RR= 1.4; p<0.01). Pulmonary parenchymal and pleural injuries were more frequently seen in earthquake-related crush injuries (117 vs. 80 patients, RR=1.5 for parenchymal and 146 vs. 74 patients, RR = 2.0 for pleural injuries; p<0.001). Non-rib fractures, pulmonary parenchymal and pleural injuries had significant positive correlation with rib fractures in these two cohorts. Thoracic crush traumas resulting from the earthquake were life threatening with a high incidence of bony thoracic fractures. The ribs were frequently involved in bilateral and severe types of fractures, which were accompanied by non-rib fractures, pulmonary parenchymal and pleural injuries.

  19. Near Space Tracking of the EM Phenomena Associated with the Main Earthquakes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ouzounov, Dimitar; Taylor, Patrick; Bryant, Nevin; Pulinets, Sergey; Liu, Jann-Yenq; Yang, Kwang-Su

    2004-01-01

    Searching for electromagnetic (EM) phenomena originating in the Earth's crust prior to major earthquakes (M>5) are the object of this exploratory study. We present the idea of a possible relationship between: (1) electro-chemical and thermodynamic processes in the Earth's crust and (2) ionic enhancement of the atmosphere/ionosphere with tectonic stress and earthquake activity. The major source of these signals are proposed to originate from electromagnetic phenomenon which are responsible for these observed pre-seismic processes, such as, enhanced IR emission, also born as thermal anomalies, generation of long wave radiation, light emission caused by ground-to-air electric discharges, Total Electron Content (TEC) ionospheric anomalies and ionospheric plasma variations. The source of these data will include: (i) ionospheric plasma perturbations data from the recently launched DEMETER mission and currently available TEC/GPS network data; (ii) geomagnetic data from ORSTED and CHAMP; (iii) Thermal infra-red (TIR) transients mapped by the polar orbiting (NOAA/AVHRR, MODIS) and (iv) geosynchronous weather satellites measurements of GOES, METEOSAT. This approach requires continues observations and data collecting, in addition to both ground and space based monitoring over selected regions in order to investigate the various techniques for recording possible anomalies. During the space campaign emphasis will be on IR emission, obtained from TIR (thermal infrared) satellites, that records land/sea surface temperature anomalies and changes in the plasma and total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere that occur over areas of potential earthquake activity.

  20. Investigation of Pre-Earthquake Ionospheric Disturbances by 3D Tomographic Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yagmur, M.

    2016-12-01

    Ionospheric variations before earthquakes have been widely discussed phenomena in ionospheric studies. To clarify the source and mechanism of these phenomena is highly important for earthquake forecasting. To well understanding the mechanical and physical processes of pre-seismic Ionospheric anomalies that might be related even with Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere-Magnetosphere Coupling, both statistical and 3D modeling analysis are needed. For these purpose, firstly we have investigated the relation between Ionospheric TEC Anomalies and potential source mechanisms such as space weather activity and lithospheric phenomena like positive surface electric charges. To distinguish their effects on Ionospheric TEC, we have focused on pre-seismically active days. Then, we analyzed the statistical data of 54 earthquakes that M≽6 between 2000 and 2013 as well as the 2011 Tohoku and the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes in Japan. By comparing TEC anomaly and Solar activity by Dst Index, we have found that 28 events that might be related with Earthquake activity. Following the statistical analysis, we also investigate the Lithospheric effect on TEC change on selected days. Among those days, we have chosen two case studies as the 2011 Tohoku and the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes to make 3D reconstructed images by utilizing 3D Tomography technique with Neural Networks. The results will be presented in our presentation. Keywords : Earthquake, 3D Ionospheric Tomography, Positive and Negative Anomaly, Geomagnetic Storm, Lithosphere

  1. Thoracic Injuries in earthquake-related versus non-earthquake-related trauma patients: differentiation via Multi-detector Computed Tomography

    PubMed Central

    Dong, Zhi-hui; Yang, Zhi-gang; Chen, Tian-wu; Chu, Zhi-gang; Deng, Wen; Shao, Heng

    2011-01-01

    PURPOSE: Massive earthquakes are harmful to humankind. This study of a historical cohort aimed to investigate the difference between earthquake-related crush thoracic traumas and thoracic traumas unrelated to earthquakes using a multi-detector Computed Tomography (CT). METHODS: We retrospectively compared an earthquake-exposed cohort of 215 thoracic trauma crush victims of the Sichuan earthquake to a cohort of 215 non-earthquake-related thoracic trauma patients, focusing on the lesions and coexisting injuries to the thoracic cage and the pulmonary parenchyma and pleura using a multi-detector CT. RESULTS: The incidence of rib fracture was elevated in the earthquake-exposed cohort (143 vs. 66 patients in the non-earthquake-exposed cohort, Risk Ratio (RR) = 2.2; p<0.001). Among these patients, those with more than 3 fractured ribs (106/143 vs. 41/66 patients, RR = 1.2; p<0.05) or flail chest (45/143 vs. 11/66 patients, RR = 1.9; p<0.05) were more frequently seen in the earthquake cohort. Earthquake-related crush injuries more frequently resulted in bilateral rib fractures (66/143 vs. 18/66 patients, RR = 1.7; p<0.01). Additionally, the incidence of non-rib fracture was higher in the earthquake cohort (85 vs. 60 patients, RR = 1.4; p<0.01). Pulmonary parenchymal and pleural injuries were more frequently seen in earthquake-related crush injuries (117 vs. 80 patients, RR = 1.5 for parenchymal and 146 vs. 74 patients, RR = 2.0 for pleural injuries; p<0.001). Non-rib fractures, pulmonary parenchymal and pleural injuries had significant positive correlation with rib fractures in these two cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Thoracic crush traumas resulting from the earthquake were life threatening with a high incidence of bony thoracic fractures. The ribs were frequently involved in bilateral and severe types of fractures, which were accompanied by non-rib fractures, pulmonary parenchymal and pleural injuries. PMID:21789386

  2. Causal mechanisms of seismo-EM phenomena during the 1965–1967 Matsushiro earthquake swarm

    PubMed Central

    Enomoto, Yuji; Yamabe, Tsuneaki; Okumura, Nobuo

    2017-01-01

    The 1965–1967 Matsushiro earthquake swarm in central Japan exhibited two unique characteristics. The first was a hydro-mechanical crust rupture resulting from degassing, volume expansion of CO2/water, and a crack opening within the critically stressed crust under a strike-slip stress. The other was, despite the lower total seismic energy, the occurrence of complexed seismo-electromagnetic (seismo-EM) phenomena of the geomagnetic intensity increase, unusual earthquake lights (EQLs) and atmospheric electric field (AEF) variations. Although the basic rupture process of this swarm of earthquakes is reasonably understood in terms of hydro-mechanical crust rupture, the associated seismo-EM processes remain largely unexplained. Here, we describe a series of seismo-EM mechanisms involved in the hydro-mechanical rupture process, as observed by coupling the electric interaction of rock rupture with CO2 gas and the dielectric-barrier discharge of the modelled fields in laboratory experiments. We found that CO2 gases passing through the newly created fracture surface of the rock were electrified to generate pressure-impressed current/electric dipoles, which could induce a magnetic field following Biot-Savart’s law, decrease the atmospheric electric field and generate dielectric-barrier discharge lightning affected by the coupling effect between the seismic and meteorological activities. PMID:28322263

  3. The 1980 Irpinia-Basilicata earthquake: the environmental phenomena and the choices of reconstruction.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porfido, Sabina; Alessio, Giuliana; Avallone, Paola; Gaudiosi, Germana; Lombardi, Giovanni; Nappi, Rosa; Salvemini, Raffaella; Spiga, Efisio

    2016-04-01

    This paper, by means of a multidisciplinary approach, deals with changes of the urban and territorial setting in many localities of the epicentral area of the 23 November 1980 Irpinia earthquake. The 23 November 1980 earthquake, known as the "Irpinia-Basilicata earthquake" was the strongest seismic event of the last 80 years in the Southern Apennines of Italy (Mw 6.9, I0=X MCS). It was felt nearly everywhere in Italy, from Sicily in the South, to Emilia Romagna and Liguria in the North. This earthquake was characterized by a complex main rupture, composed of three major sub-events, interpreted as a succession of normal faulting events. Many localities in the Avellino, Salerno and Potenza provinces were nearly completely destroyed (I=IX-X MSK, Postpischl et al., 1985); among them Castelnuovo di Conza, Conza della Campania, Lioni, Santomenna, San Mango sul Calore, San Michele di Serino and Sant'Angelo dei Lombardi. About 800 localities suffered serious damage (Balvano, Bisaccia, Calitri, etc); 75,000 houses collapsed totally and 275,000 were badly damaged. Casualties were 3000, and 10,000 people were wounded. A large amount of information on primary and secondary environmental effects, over all slope movements, was available on the basis of several geological surveys of the area affected by this earthquake. The amount of surface faulting was about 40 km in length and the maximum displacement about 100 cm, while the total area interested by slope movements was estimated in 7400 km2 (Porfido et al., 2002, 2007; Serva et al.2009). In this study we aim to describe trends and specific effects that have taken place in the 35 years following the 1980 earthquake: how the urban and territorial setting have changed, especially in the villages located in the epicentral area; the consequences of the environmental effects on the choices of reconstruction, both in situ, and far from the original historical centre. Therefore, some case histories as San Mango sul Calore and Calitri

  4. Analysis on Two Typical Landslide Hazard Phenomena in The Wenchuan Earthquake by Field Investigations and Shaking Table Tests.

    PubMed

    Yang, Changwei; Zhang, Jianjing; Liu, Feicheng; Bi, Junwei; Jun, Zhang

    2015-08-06

    Based on our field investigations of landslide hazards in the Wenchuan earthquake, some findings can be reported: (1) the multi-aspect terrain facing empty isolated mountains and thin ridges reacted intensely to the earthquake and was seriously damaged; (2) the slope angles of most landslides was larger than 45°. Considering the above disaster phenomena, the reasons are analyzed based on shaking table tests of one-sided, two-sided and four-sided slopes. The analysis results show that: (1) the amplifications of the peak accelerations of four-sided slopes is stronger than that of the two-sided slopes, while that of the one-sided slope is the weakest, which can indirectly explain the phenomena that the damage is most serious; (2) the amplifications of the peak accelerations gradually increase as the slope angles increase, and there are two inflection points which are the point where the slope angle is 45° and where the slope angle is 50°, respectively, which can explain the seismic phenomenon whereby landslide hazards mainly occur on the slopes whose slope angle is bigger than 45°. The amplification along the slope strike direction is basically consistent, and the step is smooth.

  5. Analysis on Two Typical Landslide Hazard Phenomena in The Wenchuan Earthquake by Field Investigations and Shaking Table Tests

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Changwei; Zhang, Jianjing; Liu, Feicheng; Bi, Junwei; Jun, Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Based on our field investigations of landslide hazards in the Wenchuan earthquake, some findings can be reported: (1) the multi-aspect terrain facing empty isolated mountains and thin ridges reacted intensely to the earthquake and was seriously damaged; (2) the slope angles of most landslides was larger than 45°. Considering the above disaster phenomena, the reasons are analyzed based on shaking table tests of one-sided, two-sided and four-sided slopes. The analysis results show that: (1) the amplifications of the peak accelerations of four-sided slopes is stronger than that of the two-sided slopes, while that of the one-sided slope is the weakest, which can indirectly explain the phenomena that the damage is most serious; (2) the amplifications of the peak accelerations gradually increase as the slope angles increase, and there are two inflection points which are the point where the slope angle is 45° and where the slope angle is 50°, respectively, which can explain the seismic phenomenon whereby landslide hazards mainly occur on the slopes whose slope angle is bigger than 45°. The amplification along the slope strike direction is basically consistent, and the step is smooth. PMID:26258785

  6. Earthquake Scaling Relations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jordan, T. H.; Boettcher, M.; Richardson, E.

    2002-12-01

    Using scaling relations to understand nonlinear geosystems has been an enduring theme of Don Turcotte's research. In particular, his studies of scaling in active fault systems have led to a series of insights about the underlying physics of earthquakes. This presentation will review some recent progress in developing scaling relations for several key aspects of earthquake behavior, including the inner and outer scales of dynamic fault rupture and the energetics of the rupture process. The proximate observations of mining-induced, friction-controlled events obtained from in-mine seismic networks have revealed a lower seismicity cutoff at a seismic moment Mmin near 109 Nm and a corresponding upper frequency cutoff near 200 Hz, which we interpret in terms of a critical slip distance for frictional drop of about 10-4 m. Above this cutoff, the apparent stress scales as M1/6 up to magnitudes of 4-5, consistent with other near-source studies in this magnitude range (see special session S07, this meeting). Such a relationship suggests a damage model in which apparent fracture energy scales with the stress intensity factor at the crack tip. Under the assumption of constant stress drop, this model implies an increase in rupture velocity with seismic moment, which successfully predicts the observed variation in corner frequency and maximum particle velocity. Global observations of oceanic transform faults (OTFs) allow us to investigate a situation where the outer scale of earthquake size may be controlled by dynamics (as opposed to geologic heterogeneity). The seismicity data imply that the effective area for OTF moment release, AE, depends on the thermal state of the fault but is otherwise independent of fault's average slip rate; i.e., AE ~ AT, where AT is the area above a reference isotherm. The data are consistent with β = 1/2 below an upper cutoff moment Mmax that increases with AT and yield the interesting scaling relation Amax ~ AT1/2. Taken together, the OTF

  7. Fractals and Forecasting in Earthquakes and Finance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Turcotte, D. L.

    2011-12-01

    It is now recognized that Benoit Mandelbrot's fractals play a critical role in describing a vast range of physical and social phenomena. Here we focus on two systems, earthquakes and finance. Since 1942, earthquakes have been characterized by the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relation, which in more recent times is often written as a moment-frequency power law. A similar relation can be shown to hold for financial markets. Moreover, a recent New York Times article, titled "A Richter Scale for the Markets" [1] summarized the emerging viewpoint that stock market crashes can be described with similar ideas as large and great earthquakes. The idea that stock market crashes can be related in any way to earthquake phenomena has its roots in Mandelbrot's 1963 work on speculative prices in commodities markets such as cotton [2]. He pointed out that Gaussian statistics did not account for the excessive number of booms and busts that characterize such markets. Here we show that both earthquakes and financial crashes can both be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model, involving the presence of a classical limit of stability, or spinodal. These metastable systems are characterized by fractal statistics near the spinodal. For earthquakes, the independent ("order") parameter is the slip deficit along a fault, whereas for the financial markets, it is financial leverage in place. For financial markets, asset values play the role of a free energy. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In the case of financial models, the probabilities are closely related to implied volatility, an important component of Black-Scholes models for stock valuations. [2] B. Mandelbrot, The variation of certain speculative prices, J. Business, 36, 294 (1963)

  8. The 1906 earthquake and a century of progress in understanding earthquakes and their hazards

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zoback, M.L.

    2006-01-01

    The 18 April 1906 San Francisco earthquake killed nearly 3000 people and left 225,000 residents homeless. Three days after the earthquake, an eight-person Earthquake Investigation Commission composed of 25 geologists, seismologists, geodesists, biologists and engineers, as well as some 300 others started work under the supervision of Andrew Lawson to collect and document physical phenomena related to the quake . On 31 May 1906, the commission published a preliminary 17-page report titled "The Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission". The report included the bulk of the geological and morphological descriptions of the faulting, detailed reports on shaking intensity, as well as an impressive atlas of 40 oversized maps and folios. Nearly 100 years after its publication, the Commission Report remains a model for post-earthquake investigations. Because the diverse data sets were so complete and carefully documented, researchers continue to apply modern analysis techniques to learn from the 1906 earthquake. While the earthquake marked a seminal event in the history of California, it served as impetus for the birth of modern earthquake science in the United States.

  9. Statistical validation of earthquake related observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, V. G.

    2011-12-01

    optional "antipodal strategy", one can make the predictions efficient, so that the wins will systematically outscore the losses. Sounds easy, however, many precursor phenomena are lacking info on a rigorous control and, in many cases, even the necessary precondition of any scientific study, i.e., an unambiguous definition of "precursor/signal". On the other hand, understanding the complexity of seismic process along with its non-stationary hierarchically organized behaviors, has led already to reproducible intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique that has passed control test in forward real-time applications during at least the last two decades. In particular, place and time of each of the mega earthquakes of 27 February 2010 in Chile and 11 March 2011 in Japan were recognized as in state of increased probability of such events in advance their occurrences in the ongoing since 1992 Global Test of the algorithms M8 and MSc. These evidences, in conjunction with a retrospective analysis of seismic activity preceding 26 December 2004 in the Indian Ocean and other mega earthquakes of the 20th century, give grounds for assuming that the algorithms of validated effectiveness in magnitude ranges M7.5+ and M8.0+ are applicable to predict the mega-earthquakes as well.

  10. From Multi-Sensors Observations Towards Cross-Disciplinary Study of Pre-Earthquake Signals. What have We Learned from the Tohoku Earthquake?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ouzounov, D.; Pulinets, S.; Papadopoulos, G.; Kunitsyn, V.; Nesterov, I.; Hayakawa, M.; Mogi, K.; Hattori, K.; Kafatos, M.; Taylor, P.

    2012-01-01

    The lessons we have learned from the Great Tohoku EQ (Japan, 2011) how this knowledge will affect our future observation and analysis is the main focus of this presentation.We present multi-sensors observations and multidisciplinary research in our investigation of phenomena preceding major earthquakes. These observations revealed the existence of atmospheric and ionospheric phenomena occurring prior to theM9.0 Tohoku earthquake of March 11, 2011, which indicates s new evidence of a distinct coupling between the lithosphere and atmosphere/ionosphere, as related to underlying tectonic activity. Similar results have been reported before the catastrophic events in Chile (M8.8, 2010), Italy (M6.3, 2009) and Sumatra (M9.3, 2004). For the Tohoku earthquake, our analysis shows a synergy between several independent observations characterizing the state of the lithosphere /atmosphere coupling several days before the onset of the earthquakes, namely: (i) Foreshock sequence change (rate, space and time); (ii) Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) measured at the top of the atmosphere; and (iii) Anomalous variations of ionospheric parameters revealed by multi-sensors observations. We are presenting a cross-disciplinary analysis of the observed pre-earthquake anomalies and will discuss current research in the detection of these signals in Japan. We expect that our analysis will shed light on the underlying physics of pre-earthquake signals associated with some of the largest earthquake events

  11. Surface Rupture Effects on Earthquake Moment-Area Scaling Relations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, Yingdi; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Miyakoshi, Ken; Irikura, Kojiro

    2017-09-01

    Empirical earthquake scaling relations play a central role in fundamental studies of earthquake physics and in current practice of earthquake hazard assessment, and are being refined by advances in earthquake source analysis. A scaling relation between seismic moment ( M 0) and rupture area ( A) currently in use for ground motion prediction in Japan features a transition regime of the form M 0- A 2, between the well-recognized small (self-similar) and very large (W-model) earthquake regimes, which has counter-intuitive attributes and uncertain theoretical underpinnings. Here, we investigate the mechanical origin of this transition regime via earthquake cycle simulations, analytical dislocation models and numerical crack models on strike-slip faults. We find that, even if stress drop is assumed constant, the properties of the transition regime are controlled by surface rupture effects, comprising an effective rupture elongation along-dip due to a mirror effect and systematic changes of the shape factor relating slip to stress drop. Based on this physical insight, we propose a simplified formula to account for these effects in M 0- A scaling relations for strike-slip earthquakes.

  12. The escaping "pneuma" - gas of ancient earthquake concepts in relation to animal, atmospheric and thermal precursors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Helmut, Tributsch

    2013-04-01

    The escaping "pneuma" - gas of ancient earthquake concepts in relation to animal, atmospheric and thermal precursors Helmut Tributsch Present affiliation: Carinthian University for Applied Sciences, Bio-mimetics program, Europastrasse 4, 9524 Villach, Austria, helmut.tributsch@alice.it Retired from: Free University Berlin, Institute for physical and theoretical chemistry, Takustr. 3, 14195 Berlin, Germany. For two thousand years ancient European and medieval (including islamic) natural philosophers have considered a dry, warm gas, the "pneuma" ( breath, exhalation), escaping from the earth, as precursor and trigger of earthquakes. Also in China an escaping gas or breath (the qi) was considered the cause of earthquake, first in a document from 780 BC. We know today that escaping gas is not causing earthquakes. But it may be that natural phenomena that supported such a pneuma-concept have again and again been observed. The unpolluted environment and the largely absence of distracting artificial stimuli may have allowed the recognition of distinct earthquake precursors, such as described by ancient observers: (1) the sun becomes veiled and has a dim appearance, turns reddish or dark (2) a narrow long stretched cloud becomes visible, like a line drawn by a ruler, (3) earthquakes preceded by a thin streak of cloud stretching over a wide space. (4) earthquakes in the morning sometimes preceded by a still and a strong frost, (5) a surf - line of the air sea is forming (near the horizon). The described phenomena may be interpreted as a kind of smog forming above the ground prior to an earthquake, a smog exhaled from the ground, which is triggering water condensation, releasing latent heat, changing visibility, temperature, heat conduction and radiation properties. This could perfectly match the phenomenon, which is at the origin of satellite monitored temperature anomalies preceding earthquakes. Based on a few examples it will be shown that the time window of temperature

  13. One research from turkey on groundwater- level changes related earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirmizitas, H.; Göktepe, G.

    2003-04-01

    Groundwater levels are recorded by limnigraphs in drilling wells in order to determine groundwater potential accurately and reliable under hydrogeological studies in Turkey State Haydraulic Works (DSI) set the limnigraphs to estimate mainly groundwater potential. Any well is drilled to determine and to obtain data on water level changes related earthquake up today. The main purpose of these studies are based on groundwater potential and to expose the hydrodynamic structure of an aquifer. In this study, abnormal oscillations, water rising and water drops were observed on graphs which is related with water level changes in groundwater. These observations showed that, some earthquakes has been effective on water level changes. There is a distance ranging to 2000 km between this epicentral and water wells. Water level changes occur in groundwater bearing layers that could be consisting of grained materials such as, alluvium or consolidated rocks such as, limestones. The biggest water level change is ranging to 1,48 m on diagrams and it is recorded as oscillation movement. Water level changes related earthquake are observed in different types of movements below in this research. 1-Rise-drop oscillation changes on same point. 2-Water level drop in certain periods or permanent periods after earthquakes. 3-Water level rise in certain periods or permanent periods after earthquakes. (For example, during Gölcük Earthquake with magnitude of 7.8 on August, 17, 1999 one artesian occured in DSI well ( 49160 numbered ) in Adapazari, Dernekkiri Village. Groundwater level changes might easily be changed because of atmosferic pressure that comes in first range, precipitation, irrigation or water pumping. Owing to relate groundwater level changes with earthquake on any time, such changes should be observed accurately, carefully and at right time. Thus, first of all, the real reason of this water level changes must be determined From 1970 to 2001 many earthquakes occured in Turkey

  14. Intermediate-depth earthquakes facilitated by eclogitization-related stresses

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nakajima, Junichi; Uchida, Naoki; Shiina, Takahiro; Hasegawa, Akira; Hacker, Bradley R.; Kirby, Stephen H.

    2013-01-01

    Eclogitization of the basaltic and gabbroic layer in the oceanic crust involves a volume reduction of 10%–15%. One consequence of the negative volume change is the formation of a paired stress field as a result of strain compatibility across the reaction front. Here we use waveform analysis of a tiny seismic cluster in the lower crust of the downgoing Pacific plate and reveal new evidence in favor of this mechanism: tensional earthquakes lying 1 km above compressional earthquakes, and earthquakes with highly similar waveforms lying on well-defined planes with complementary rupture areas. The tensional stress is interpreted to be caused by the dimensional mismatch between crust transformed to eclogite and underlying untransformed crust, and the earthquakes are probably facilitated by reactivation of fossil faults extant in the subducting plate. These observations provide seismic evidence for the role of volume change–related stresses and, possibly, fluid-related embrittlement as viable processes for nucleating earthquakes in downgoing oceanic lithosphere.

  15. The surface latent heat flux anomalies related to major earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jing, Feng; Shen, Xuhui; Kang, Chunli; Xiong, Pan; Hong, Shunying

    2011-12-01

    SLHF (Surface Latent Heat Flux) is an atmospheric parameter, which can describe the heat released by phase changes and dependent on meteorological parameters such as surface temperature, relative humidity, wind speed etc. There is a sharp difference between the ocean surface and the land surface. Recently, many studies related to the SLHF anomalies prior to earthquakes have been developed. It has been shown that the energy exchange enhanced between coastal surface and atmosphere prior to earthquakes can increase the rate of the water-heat exchange, which will lead to an obviously increases in SLHF. In this paper, two earthquakes in 2010 (Haiti earthquake and southwest of Sumatra in Indonesia earthquake) have been analyzed using SLHF data by STD (standard deviation) threshold method. It is shows that the SLHF anomaly may occur in interpolate earthquakes or intraplate earthquakes and coastal earthquakes or island earthquakes. And the SLHF anomalies usually appear 5-6 days prior to an earthquake, then disappear quickly after the event. The process of anomaly evolution to a certain extent reflects a dynamic energy change process about earthquake preparation, that is, weak-strong-weak-disappeared.

  16. Effects of the New Madrid earthquake series in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. Final report

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Saucier, R.T.

    1977-02-01

    Geological effects of the New Madrid earthquake series of 1811-12 in the upper portion of the Lower Mississippi Valley include land subsidence, uplift or doming, landslides, bank caving, fissuring, and sand blow phenomena. Features resulting from the liquefaction of sand are widespread in the alluvial valley and offer the greatest potential for definitively assessing the effects of major earthquakes on thick alluvial deposits and predicting the recurrence interval of infrequent major earthquakes in the region. However, liquefaction phenomena have not been the subject of detailed geological investigations applying knowledge of alluvial morphology and earth sciences methodology. Comparative aerial photo interpretationmore » has been used to classify liquefaction phenomena according to morphology, distribution, and relationship to major depositional environments. Surface morphology and spatial distribution of sand blows and fissures indicate basic control by drainage lines, water table position, and thickness of fine-grained topstratum deposits, Research efforts have been aimed at locating field test sites where the subsurface expression of the liquefaction phenomena can be investigated through trenching and land planing. Subsurface expression is presumed to be more permanent than surface expression and may permit the recognition of such features in older formations. Evidence of fissures and related phenomena is being sought in older Quaternary deposits to permit estimates of the frequency of past major earthquakes.« less

  17. Precise Relative Earthquake Magnitudes from Cross Correlation

    DOE PAGES

    Cleveland, K. Michael; Ammon, Charles J.

    2015-04-21

    We present a method to estimate precise relative magnitudes using cross correlation of seismic waveforms. Our method incorporates the intercorrelation of all events in a group of earthquakes, as opposed to individual event pairings relative to a reference event. This method works well when a reliable reference event does not exist. We illustrate the method using vertical strike-slip earthquakes located in the northeast Pacific and Panama fracture zone regions. Our results are generally consistent with the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog, which we use to establish a baseline for the relative event sizes.

  18. Recognition of earthquake-related damage in archaeological sites: Examples from the Dead Sea fault zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marco, Shmuel

    2008-06-01

    Archaeological structures that exhibit seismogenic damage expand our knowledge of temporal and spatial distribution of earthquakes, afford independent examination of historical accounts, provide information on local earthquake intensities and enable the delineation of macroseismic zones. They also illustrate what might happen in future earthquakes. In order to recover this information, we should be able to distinguish earthquake damage from anthropogenic damage and from other natural processes of wear and tear. The present paper reviews several types of damage that can be attributed with high certainty to earthquakes and discusses associated caveats. In the rare cases, where faults intersect with archaeological sites, offset structures enable precise determination of sense and size of slip, and constrain its time. Among the characteristic off-fault damage types, I consider horizontal shifting of large building blocks, downward sliding of one or several blocks from masonry arches, collapse of heavy, stably-built walls, chipping of corners of building blocks, and aligned falling of walls and columns. Other damage features are less conclusive and require additional evidence, e.g., fractures that cut across several structures, leaning walls and columns, warps and bulges in walls. Circumstantial evidence for catastrophic earthquake-related destruction includes contemporaneous damage in many sites in the same area, absence of weapons or other anthropogenic damage, stratigraphic data on collapse of walls and ceilings onto floors and other living horizons and burial of valuable artifacts, as well as associated geological palaeoseismic phenomena such as liquefaction, land- and rock-slides, and fault ruptures. Additional support may be found in reliable historical accounts. Special care must be taken in order to avoid circular reasoning by maintaining the independence of data acquisition methods.

  19. Understanding earthquake from the granular physics point of view — Causes of earthquake, earthquake precursors and predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Kunquan; Hou, Meiying; Jiang, Zehui; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Gang; Liu, Jixing

    2018-03-01

    We treat the earth crust and mantle as large scale discrete matters based on the principles of granular physics and existing experimental observations. Main outcomes are: A granular model of the structure and movement of the earth crust and mantle is established. The formation mechanism of the tectonic forces, which causes the earthquake, and a model of propagation for precursory information are proposed. Properties of the seismic precursory information and its relevance with the earthquake occurrence are illustrated, and principle of ways to detect the effective seismic precursor is elaborated. The mechanism of deep-focus earthquake is also explained by the jamming-unjamming transition of the granular flow. Some earthquake phenomena which were previously difficult to understand are explained, and the predictability of the earthquake is discussed. Due to the discrete nature of the earth crust and mantle, the continuum theory no longer applies during the quasi-static seismological process. In this paper, based on the principles of granular physics, we study the causes of earthquakes, earthquake precursors and predictions, and a new understanding, different from the traditional seismological viewpoint, is obtained.

  20. A Review of Low Frequency Electromagnetic Wave Phenomena Related to Tropospheric-Ionospheric Coupling Mechanisms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Simoes, Fernando; Pfaff, Robert; Berthelier, Jean-Jacques; Klenzing, Jeffrey

    2012-01-01

    Investigation of coupling mechanisms between the troposphere and the ionosphere requires a multidisciplinary approach involving several branches of atmospheric sciences, from meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and fulminology to aeronomy, plasma physics, and space weather. In this work, we review low frequency electromagnetic wave propagation in the Earth-ionosphere cavity from a troposphere-ionosphere coupling perspective. We discuss electromagnetic wave generation, propagation, and resonance phenomena, considering atmospheric, ionospheric and magnetospheric sources, from lightning and transient luminous events at low altitude to Alfven waves and particle precipitation related to solar and magnetospheric processes. We review in situ ionospheric processes as well as surface and space weather phenomena that drive troposphere-ionosphere dynamics. Effects of aerosols, water vapor distribution, thermodynamic parameters, and cloud charge separation and electrification processes on atmospheric electricity and electromagnetic waves are reviewed. We also briefly revisit ionospheric irregularities such as spread-F and explosive spread-F, sporadic-E, traveling ionospheric disturbances, Trimpi effect, and hiss and plasma turbulence. Regarding the role of the lower boundary of the cavity, we review transient surface phenomena, including seismic activity, earthquakes, volcanic processes and dust electrification. The role of surface and atmospheric gravity waves in ionospheric dynamics is also briefly addressed. We summarize analytical and numerical tools and techniques to model low frequency electromagnetic wave propagation and solving inverse problems and summarize in a final section a few challenging subjects that are important for a better understanding of tropospheric-ionospheric coupling mechanisms.

  1. Simultaneous infrasonic, seismic, magnetic and ionospheric observations in an earthquake epicentre

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laštovička, J.; Baše, J.; Hruška, F.; Chum, J.; Šindelářová, T.; Horálek, J.; Zedník, J.; Krasnov, V.

    2010-10-01

    Various pre-seismic and co-seismic effects have been reported in the literature in the solid Earth, hydrosphere, atmosphere, electric/magnetic field and in the ionosphere. Some of the effects observed above the surface, particularly some of the pre-seismic effects, are still a matter of debate. Here we analyze the co-seismic effects of a relatively weak earthquake of 28 October 2008, which was a part of an earthquake swarm in the westernmost region of the Czech Republic. Special attention is paid to unique measurements of infrasonic phenomena. As far as we know, these have been the first infrasonic measurements during earthquake in the epicentre zone. Infrasonic oscillations (˜1-12 Hz) in the epicentre region appear to be excited essentially by the vertical seismic oscillations. The observed oscillations are real epicentral infrasound not caused by seismic shaking of the instruments or by meteorological phenomena. Seismo-infrasonic oscillations observed 155 km apart from the epicentre were excited in situ by seismic waves. No earthquake-related infrasonic effects have been observed in the ionosphere. Necessity to make vibration tests of instruments is pointed out in order to be sure that observed effects are not effects of mechanical shaking of the instrument.

  2. Multi-Sensor Observations of Earthquake Related Atmospheric Signals over Major Geohazard Validation Sites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ouzounov, D.; Pulinets, S.; Davindenko, D.; Hattori, K.; Kafatos, M.; Taylor, P.

    2012-01-01

    We are conducting a scientific validation study involving multi-sensor observations in our investigation of phenomena preceding major earthquakes. Our approach is based on a systematic analysis of several atmospheric and environmental parameters, which we found, are associated with the earthquakes, namely: thermal infrared radiation, outgoing long-wavelength radiation, ionospheric electron density, and atmospheric temperature and humidity. For first time we applied this approach to selected GEOSS sites prone to earthquakes or volcanoes. This provides a new opportunity to cross validate our results with the dense networks of in-situ and space measurements. We investigated two different seismic aspects, first the sites with recent large earthquakes, viz.- Tohoku-oki (M9, 2011, Japan) and Emilia region (M5.9, 2012,N. Italy). Our retrospective analysis of satellite data has shown the presence of anomalies in the atmosphere. Second, we did a retrospective analysis to check the re-occurrence of similar anomalous behavior in atmosphere/ionosphere over three regions with distinct geological settings and high seismicity: Taiwan, Japan and Kamchatka, which include 40 major earthquakes (M>5.9) for the period of 2005-2009. We found anomalous behavior before all of these events with no false negatives; false positives were less then 10%. Our initial results suggest that multi-instrument space-borne and ground observations show a systematic appearance of atmospheric anomalies near the epicentral area that could be explained by a coupling between the observed physical parameters and earthquake preparation processes.

  3. Seasonality of alcohol-related phenomena in Estonia.

    PubMed

    Silm, Siiri; Ahas, Rein

    2005-03-01

    We studied alcohol consumption and its consequences as a seasonal phenomenon in Estonia and analysed the social and environmental factors that may cause its seasonal rhythm. There are two important questions when researching the seasonality of human activities: (1) whether it is caused by natural or social factors, and (2) whether the impact of the factors is direct or indirect. Often the seasonality of social phenomena is caused by social factors, but the triggering mechanisms are related to environmental factors like temperature, precipitation, and radiation via the circannual calendar. The indicators of alcohol consumption in the current paper are grouped as: (1) pre-consumption phenomena, i.e. production, tax and excise, sales (beer, wine and vodka are analysed separately), and (2) post-consumption phenomena, i.e. alcohol-related crime and traffic accidents and the number of people detained in lockups and admitted to alcohol treatment clinics. In addition, seasonal variability in the amount of alcohol advertising has been studied, and a survey has been carried out among 87 students of Tartu University. The analysis shows that different phenomena related to alcohol have a clear seasonal rhythm in Estonia. The peak period of phenomena related to beer is in the summer, from June to August and the low point is during the first months of the year. Beer consumption correlates well with air temperature. The consumption of vodka increases sharply at the end of the year and in June; the production of vodka does not have a significant correlation with negative temperatures. The consumption of wine increases during summer and in December. The consequences of alcohol consumption, expressed as the rate of traffic accidents or the frequency of medical treatment, also show seasonal variability. Seasonal variability of alcohol consumption in Estonia is influenced by natural factors (temperature, humidity, etc.) and by social factors (celebrations, vacations, etc.). However

  4. Seasonality of alcohol-related phenomena in Estonia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silm, Siiri; Ahas, Rein

    2005-03-01

    We studied alcohol consumption and its consequences as a seasonal phenomenon in Estonia and analysed the social and environmental factors that may cause its seasonal rhythm. There are two important questions when researching the seasonality of human activities: (1) whether it is caused by natural or social factors, and (2) whether the impact of the factors is direct or indirect. Often the seasonality of social phenomena is caused by social factors, but the triggering mechanisms are related to environmental factors like temperature, precipitation, and radiation via the circannual calendar. The indicators of alcohol consumption in the current paper are grouped as: (1) pre-consumption phenomena, i.e. production, tax and excise, sales (beer, wine and vodka are analysed separately), and (2) post-consumption phenomena, i.e. alcohol-related crime and traffic accidents and the number of people detained in lockups and admitted to alcohol treatment clinics. In addition, seasonal variability in the amount of alcohol advertising has been studied, and a survey has been carried out among 87 students of Tartu University. The analysis shows that different phenomena related to alcohol have a clear seasonal rhythm in Estonia. The peak period of phenomena related to beer is in the summer, from June to August and the low point is during the first months of the year. Beer consumption correlates well with air temperature. The consumption of vodka increases sharply at the end of the year and in June; the production of vodka does not have a significant correlation with negative temperatures. The consumption of wine increases during summer and in December. The consequences of alcohol consumption, expressed as the rate of traffic accidents or the frequency of medical treatment, also show seasonal variability. Seasonal variability of alcohol consumption in Estonia is influenced by natural factors (temperature, humidity, etc.) and by social factors (celebrations, vacations, etc.). However

  5. Crustal deformation at the terminal stage before earthquake occurrence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, C. H.; Meng, G.; Su, X.

    2016-12-01

    GPS data retrieved from 300 stations in China are used in this work to study stressed areas during earthquake preparation periods. Surface deformation data are derived by using the standard method and are smoothed by a temporal moving to mitigate influence from noise. A statistical method is used to distinguish significant variations from the smoothed data. The spatial distributions comprised of those significant variations show that a diameter of a stressed area preparing earthquakes is about 3500 km for a M6 event. The deformation deduced from the significant variations is highly related with the slip direction of the fault plane determined through the focal mechanism solution of earthquakes. Although the causal mechanism of such large stressed areas with rapid changes is not fully understood, the analytical results suggest that the earthquake preparation would be one of the factors dominating the common mode error in GPS studies. Mechanisms and/or numerical models of some pre-earthquake anomalous phenomena would be reconsidered based on this novel observation.

  6. Physics of Earthquake Disaster: From Crustal Rupture to Building Collapse

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uenishi, Koji

    2018-05-01

    Earthquakes of relatively greater magnitude may cause serious, sometimes unexpected failures of natural and human-made structures, either on the surface, underground, or even at sea. In this review, by treating several examples of extraordinary earthquake-related failures that range from the collapse of every second building in a commune to the initiation of spontaneous crustal rupture at depth, we consider the physical background behind the apparently abnormal earthquake disaster. Simple but rigorous dynamic analyses reveal that such seemingly unusual failures actually occurred for obvious reasons, which may remain unrecognized in part because in conventional seismic analyses only kinematic aspects of the effects of lower-frequency seismic waves below 1 Hz are normally considered. Instead of kinematics, some dynamic approach that takes into account the influence of higher-frequency components of waves over 1 Hz will be needed to anticipate and explain such extraordinary phenomena and mitigate the impact of earthquake disaster in the future.

  7. The search for Infrared radiation prior to major earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouzounov, D.; Taylor, P.; Pulinets, S.

    2004-12-01

    This work describes our search for a relationship between tectonic stresses and electro-chemical and thermodynamic processes in the Earth and increases in mid-IR flux as part of a possible ensemble of electromagnetic (EM) phenomena that may be related to earthquake activity. Recent analysis of continuous ongoing long- wavelength Earth radiation (OLR) indicates significant and anomalous variability prior to some earthquakes. The cause of these anomalies is not well understood but could be the result of a triggering by an interaction between the lithosphere-hydrosphere and atmospheric related to changes in the near surface electrical field and gas composition prior to the earthquake. The OLR anomaly covers large areas surrounding the main epicenter. We have use the NOAA IR data to differentiate between the global and seasonal variability and these transient local anomalies. Indeed, on the basis of a temporal and spatial distribution analysis, an anomaly pattern is found to occur several days prior some major earthquakes. The significance of these observations was explored using data sets of some recent worldwide events.

  8. Report on the Aseismic Slip, Tremor, and Earthquakes Workshop

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gomberg, Joan; Roeloffs, Evelyn; Trehu, Anne; Dragert, Herb; Meertens, Charles

    2008-01-01

    This report summarizes the discussions and information presented during the workshop on Aseismic Slip, Tremor, and Earthquakes. Workshop goals included improving coordination among those involved in conducting research related to these phenomena, assessing the implications for earthquake hazard assessment, and identifying ways to capitalize on the education and outreach opportunities presented by these phenomena. Research activities of focus included making, disseminating, and analyzing relevant measurements; the relationships among tremor, aseismic or 'slow-slip', and earthquakes; and discovering the underlying causative physical processes. More than 52 participants contributed to the workshop, held February 25-28, 2008 in Sidney, British Columbia. The workshop was sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey, the National Science Foundation?s Earthscope Program and UNAVCO Consortium, and the Geological Survey of Canada. This report has five parts. In the first part, we integrate the information exchanged at the workshop as it relates to advancing our understanding of earthquake generation and hazard. In the second part, we summarize the ideas and concerns discussed in workshop working groups on Opportunities for Education and Outreach, Data and Instrumentation, User and Public Needs, and Research Coordination. The third part presents summaries of the oral presentations. The oral presentations are grouped as they were at the workshop in the categories of phenomenology, underlying physical processes, and implications for earthquake hazards. The fourth part contains the meeting program and the fifth part lists the workshop participants. References noted in parentheses refer to the authors of presentations made at the workshop, and published references are noted in square brackets and listed in the Reference section. Appendix A contains abstracts of all participant presentations and posters, which also have been posted online, along with presentations and author contact

  9. Progress in Understanding the Pre-Earthquake Associated Events by Analyzing IR Satellite Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ouzounov, Dimitar; Taylor, Patrick; Bryant, Nevin

    2004-01-01

    We present latest result in understanding the potential relationship between tectonic stress, electro-chemical and thermodynamic processes in the Earths crust and atmosphere with an increase in IR flux as a potential signature of electromagnetic (EM) phenomena that are related to earthquake activity, either pre-, co- or post seismic. Thermal infra-red (TIR) surveys performed by the polar orbiting (NOAA/AVHRR MODIS) and geosynchronous weather satellites (GOES, METEOSAT) gave an indication of the appearance (from days to weeks before the event) of "anomalous" space-time TIR transients that are associated with the location (epicenter and local tectonic structures) and time of a number of major earthquakes with M>5 and focal depths less than 50km. We analyzed broad category of associated pre-earthquake events, which provided evidence for changes in surface temperature, surface latent heat flux, chlorophyll concentrations, soil moisture, brightness temperature, emissivity of surface, water vapour in the atmosphere prior to the earthquakes occurred in Algeria, India, Iran, Italy, Mexico and Japan. The cause of such anomalies has been mainly related to the change of near-surface thermal properties due to complex lithosphere-hydrosphere-atmospheric interactions. As final results we present examples from the most recent (2000-2004) worldwide strong earthquakes and the techniques used to capture the tracks of EM emission mid-IR anomalies and a methodology for practical future use of such phenomena in the early warning systems.

  10. Cascading hazards: Understanding triggering relations between wet tropical cyclones, landslides, and earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wdowinski, S.; Peng, Z.; Ferrier, K.; Lin, C. H.; Hsu, Y. J.; Shyu, J. B. H.

    2017-12-01

    Earthquakes, landslides, and tropical cyclones are extreme hazards that pose significant threats to human life and property. Some of the couplings between these hazards are well known. For example, sudden, widespread landsliding can be triggered by large earthquakes and by extreme rainfall events like tropical cyclones. Recent studies have also shown that earthquakes can be triggered by erosional unloading over 100-year timescales. In a NASA supported project, titled "Cascading hazards: Understanding triggering relations between wet tropical cyclones, landslides, and earthquake", we study triggering relations between these hazard types. The project focuses on such triggering relations in Taiwan, which is subjected to very wet tropical storms, landslides, and earthquakes. One example for such triggering relations is the 2009 Morakot typhoon, which was the wettest recorded typhoon in Taiwan (2850 mm of rain in 100 hours). The typhoon caused widespread flooding and triggered more than 20,000 landslides, including the devastating Hsiaolin landslide. Six months later, the same area was hit by the 2010 M=6.4 Jiashian earthquake near Kaohsiung city, which added to the infrastructure damage induced by the typhoon and the landslides. Preliminary analysis of temporal relations between main-shock earthquakes and the six wettest typhoons in Taiwan's past 50 years reveals similar temporal relations between M≥5 events and wet typhoons. Future work in the project will include remote sensing analysis of landsliding, seismic and geodetic monitoring of landslides, detection of microseismicity and tremor activities, and mechanical modeling of crustal stress changes due to surface unloading.

  11. PEER - January 12, 2010 Haiti Earthquake - Related Events

    Science.gov Websites

    Related Events Related Events Preliminary Reconnaissance Presentation about Chile Earthquake Tuesday Topic: Chile EERI/PEER Reconnaissance Briefing Date: Tuesday, March 30, 2010 Time: 3:00 PM to 5PM

  12. Inter-Disciplinary Validation of Pre Earthquake Signals. Case Study for Major Earthquakes in Asia (2004-2010) and for 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ouzounov, D.; Pulinets, S.; Hattori, K.; Liu, J.-Y.; Yang. T. Y.; Parrot, M.; Kafatos, M.; Taylor, P.

    2012-01-01

    We carried out multi-sensors observations in our investigation of phenomena preceding major earthquakes. Our approach is based on a systematic analysis of several physical and environmental parameters, which we found, associated with the earthquake processes: thermal infrared radiation, temperature and concentration of electrons in the ionosphere, radon/ion activities, and air temperature/humidity in the atmosphere. We used satellite and ground observations and interpreted them with the Lithosphere-Atmosphere- Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model, one of possible paradigms we study and support. We made two independent continues hind-cast investigations in Taiwan and Japan for total of 102 earthquakes (M>6) occurring from 2004-2011. We analyzed: (1) ionospheric electromagnetic radiation, plasma and energetic electron measurements from DEMETER (2) emitted long-wavelength radiation (OLR) from NOAA/AVHRR and NASA/EOS; (3) radon/ion variations (in situ data); and 4) GPS Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements collected from space and ground based observations. This joint analysis of ground and satellite data has shown that one to six (or more) days prior to the largest earthquakes there were anomalies in all of the analyzed physical observations. For the latest March 11 , 2011 Tohoku earthquake, our analysis shows again the same relationship between several independent observations characterizing the lithosphere /atmosphere coupling. On March 7th we found a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation observed from satellite data and subsequently an anomaly developed near the epicenter. The GPS/TEC data indicated an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. Beginning from this day we confirmed an abnormal TEC variation over the epicenter in the lower ionosphere. These findings revealed the existence of atmospheric and ionospheric phenomena occurring prior to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, which indicated new evidence of a distinct

  13. Scaling Relations of Earthquakes on Inland Active Mega-Fault Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murotani, S.; Matsushima, S.; Azuma, T.; Irikura, K.; Kitagawa, S.

    2010-12-01

    Since 2005, The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) has been publishing 'National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan' to provide useful information for disaster prevention countermeasures for the country and local public agencies, as well as promote public awareness of disaster prevention of earthquakes. In the course of making the year 2009 version of the map, which is the commemorate of the tenth anniversary of the settlement of the Comprehensive Basic Policy, the methods to evaluate magnitude of earthquakes, to predict strong ground motion, and to construct underground structure were investigated in the Earthquake Research Committee and its subcommittees. In order to predict the magnitude of earthquakes occurring on mega-fault systems, we examined the scaling relations for mega-fault systems using 11 earthquakes of which source processes were analyzed by waveform inversion and of which surface information was investigated. As a result, we found that the data fit in between the scaling relations of seismic moment and rupture area by Somerville et al. (1999) and Irikura and Miyake (2001). We also found that maximum displacement of surface rupture is two to three times larger than the average slip on the seismic fault and surface fault length is equal to length of the source fault. Furthermore, compiled data of the source fault shows that displacement saturates at 10m when fault length(L) is beyond 100km, L>100km. By assuming the fault width (W) to be 18km in average of inland earthquakes in Japan, and the displacement saturate at 10m for length of more than 100 km, we derived a new scaling relation between source area and seismic moment, S[km^2] = 1.0 x 10^-17 M0 [Nm] for mega-fault systems that seismic moment (M0) exceeds 1.8×10^20 Nm.

  14. Transport-related impacts of the Northridge Earthquake

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1998-05-01

    This research estimates the transport-related business interruption impacts of the 1994 Northridge earthquake using a spatial allocation model, SCPM (the Southern California Planning Model) and surveys of businesses and individuals. Total business in...

  15. Rupture, waves and earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Uenishi, Koji

    2017-01-01

    Normally, an earthquake is considered as a phenomenon of wave energy radiation by rupture (fracture) of solid Earth. However, the physics of dynamic process around seismic sources, which may play a crucial role in the occurrence of earthquakes and generation of strong waves, has not been fully understood yet. Instead, much of former investigation in seismology evaluated earthquake characteristics in terms of kinematics that does not directly treat such dynamic aspects and usually excludes the influence of high-frequency wave components over 1 Hz. There are countless valuable research outcomes obtained through this kinematics-based approach, but "extraordinary" phenomena that are difficult to be explained by this conventional description have been found, for instance, on the occasion of the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu, Japan, earthquake, and more detailed study on rupture and wave dynamics, namely, possible mechanical characteristics of (1) rupture development around seismic sources, (2) earthquake-induced structural failures and (3) wave interaction that connects rupture (1) and failures (2), would be indispensable.

  16. Rupture, waves and earthquakes

    PubMed Central

    UENISHI, Koji

    2017-01-01

    Normally, an earthquake is considered as a phenomenon of wave energy radiation by rupture (fracture) of solid Earth. However, the physics of dynamic process around seismic sources, which may play a crucial role in the occurrence of earthquakes and generation of strong waves, has not been fully understood yet. Instead, much of former investigation in seismology evaluated earthquake characteristics in terms of kinematics that does not directly treat such dynamic aspects and usually excludes the influence of high-frequency wave components over 1 Hz. There are countless valuable research outcomes obtained through this kinematics-based approach, but “extraordinary” phenomena that are difficult to be explained by this conventional description have been found, for instance, on the occasion of the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu, Japan, earthquake, and more detailed study on rupture and wave dynamics, namely, possible mechanical characteristics of (1) rupture development around seismic sources, (2) earthquake-induced structural failures and (3) wave interaction that connects rupture (1) and failures (2), would be indispensable. PMID:28077808

  17. Earthquake and tsunami forecasts: Relation of slow slip events to subsequent earthquake rupture

    PubMed Central

    Dixon, Timothy H.; Jiang, Yan; Malservisi, Rocco; McCaffrey, Robert; Voss, Nicholas; Protti, Marino; Gonzalez, Victor

    2014-01-01

    The 5 September 2012 Mw 7.6 earthquake on the Costa Rica subduction plate boundary followed a 62-y interseismic period. High-precision GPS recorded numerous slow slip events (SSEs) in the decade leading up to the earthquake, both up-dip and down-dip of seismic rupture. Deeper SSEs were larger than shallower ones and, if characteristic of the interseismic period, release most locking down-dip of the earthquake, limiting down-dip rupture and earthquake magnitude. Shallower SSEs were smaller, accounting for some but not all interseismic locking. One SSE occurred several months before the earthquake, but changes in Mohr–Coulomb failure stress were probably too small to trigger the earthquake. Because many SSEs have occurred without subsequent rupture, their individual predictive value is limited, but taken together they released a significant amount of accumulated interseismic strain before the earthquake, effectively defining the area of subsequent seismic rupture (rupture did not occur where slow slip was common). Because earthquake magnitude depends on rupture area, this has important implications for earthquake hazard assessment. Specifically, if this behavior is representative of future earthquake cycles and other subduction zones, it implies that monitoring SSEs, including shallow up-dip events that lie offshore, could lead to accurate forecasts of earthquake magnitude and tsunami potential. PMID:25404327

  18. Earthquake and tsunami forecasts: relation of slow slip events to subsequent earthquake rupture.

    PubMed

    Dixon, Timothy H; Jiang, Yan; Malservisi, Rocco; McCaffrey, Robert; Voss, Nicholas; Protti, Marino; Gonzalez, Victor

    2014-12-02

    The 5 September 2012 M(w) 7.6 earthquake on the Costa Rica subduction plate boundary followed a 62-y interseismic period. High-precision GPS recorded numerous slow slip events (SSEs) in the decade leading up to the earthquake, both up-dip and down-dip of seismic rupture. Deeper SSEs were larger than shallower ones and, if characteristic of the interseismic period, release most locking down-dip of the earthquake, limiting down-dip rupture and earthquake magnitude. Shallower SSEs were smaller, accounting for some but not all interseismic locking. One SSE occurred several months before the earthquake, but changes in Mohr-Coulomb failure stress were probably too small to trigger the earthquake. Because many SSEs have occurred without subsequent rupture, their individual predictive value is limited, but taken together they released a significant amount of accumulated interseismic strain before the earthquake, effectively defining the area of subsequent seismic rupture (rupture did not occur where slow slip was common). Because earthquake magnitude depends on rupture area, this has important implications for earthquake hazard assessment. Specifically, if this behavior is representative of future earthquake cycles and other subduction zones, it implies that monitoring SSEs, including shallow up-dip events that lie offshore, could lead to accurate forecasts of earthquake magnitude and tsunami potential.

  19. Department of Energy Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation Program

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Murray, R.C.

    1993-09-01

    This paper will present a summary of past and present accomplishments of the Natural Phenomena Hazards Program that has been ongoing at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory since 1975. The Natural Phenomena covered includes earthquake; winds, hurricanes, and tornadoes; flooding and precipitation; lightning; and volcanic events. The work is organized into four major areas (1) Policy, requirements, standards, and guidance (2) Technical support, research development, (3) Technology transfer, and (4) Oversight.

  20. Attention bias in earthquake-exposed survivors: an event-related potential study.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yan; Kong, Fanchang; Han, Li; Najam Ul Hasan, Abbasi; Chen, Hong

    2014-12-01

    The Chinese Wenchuan earthquake, which happened on the 28th of May in 2008, may leave deep invisible scars in individuals. China has a large number of children and adolescents, who tend to be most vulnerable because they are in an early stage of human development and possible post-traumatic psychological distress may have a life-long consequence. Trauma survivors without post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) have received little attention in previous studies, especially in event-related potential (ERP) studies. We compared the attention bias to threat stimuli between the earthquake-exposed group and the control group in a masked version of the dot probe task. The target probe presented at the same space location consistent with earthquake-related words was the congruent trial, while in the space location of neutral words was the incongruent trial. Thirteen earthquake-exposed middle school students without PTSD and 13 matched controls were included in this investigation. The earthquake-exposed group showed significantly faster RTs to congruent trials than to incongruent trials. The earthquake-exposed group produced significantly shorter C1 and P1 latencies and larger C1, P1 and P2 amplitudes than the control group. In particular, enhanced P1 amplitude to threat stimuli was observed in the earthquake-exposed group. These findings are in agreement with the prediction that earthquake-exposed survivors have an attention bias to threat stimuli. The traumatic event had a much greater effect on earthquake-exposed survivors even if they showed no PTSD symptoms than individuals in the controls. These results will provide neurobiological evidences for effective intervention and prevention to post-traumatic mental problems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Charles Darwin's earthquake reports

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galiev, Shamil

    2010-05-01

    problems which began to discuss only during the last time. Earthquakes often precede volcanic eruptions. According to Darwin, the earthquake-induced shock may be a common mechanism of the simultaneous eruptions of the volcanoes separated by long distances. In particular, Darwin wrote that ‘… the elevation of many hundred square miles of territory near Concepcion is part of the same phenomenon, with that splashing up, if I may so call it, of volcanic matter through the orifices in the Cordillera at the moment of the shock;…'. According to Darwin the crust is a system where fractured zones, and zones of seismic and volcanic activities interact. Darwin formulated the task of considering together the processes studied now as seismology and volcanology. However the difficulties are such that the study of interactions between earthquakes and volcanoes began only recently and his works on this had relatively little impact on the development of geosciences. In this report, we discuss how the latest data on seismic and volcanic events support the Darwin's observations and ideas about the 1835 Chilean earthquake. The material from researchspace. auckland. ac. nz/handle/2292/4474 is used. We show how modern mechanical tests from impact engineering and simple experiments with weakly-cohesive materials also support his observations and ideas. On the other hand, we developed the mathematical theory of the earthquake-induced catastrophic wave phenomena. This theory allow to explain the most important aspects the Darwin's earthquake reports. This is achieved through the simplification of fundamental governing equations of considering problems to strongly-nonlinear wave equations. Solutions of these equations are constructed with the help of analytic and numerical techniques. The solutions can model different strongly-nonlinear wave phenomena which generate in a variety of physical context. A comparison with relevant experimental observations is also presented.

  2. The Seminole Serpent Warrior At Miramar, FL, Shows Settlement Locations Enabled Environmental Monitoring Reminiscent Of the Four-corners Kokopelli-like EMF Phenomena, and Related to Earthquakes, Tornados and Hurricanes.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balam Matagamon, Chan; Pawa Matagamon, Sagamo

    2004-03-01

    Certain Native Americans of the past seem to have correctly deduced that significant survival information for their tradition-respecting cultures resided in EMF-based phenomena that they were monitoring. This is based upon their myths and the place or cult-hero names they bequeathed us. The sites we have located in FL have been detectable by us visually, usually by faint blue light, or by the elicitation of pin-like prickings, by somewhat intense nervous-system response, by EMF interactions with aural electrochemical systems that can elicit tinitus, and other ways. In the northeast, Cautantowit served as a harbinger of Indian summer, and appears to be another alter ego of the EMF. The Miami, FL Tequesta site along the river clearly correlates with tornado, earthquake and hurricane locations. Sites like the Mohave Deserts giant man may have had similar significance.

  3. Slow slip phenomena in Cascadia from 2007 and beyond: a review

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gomberg, Joan; ,

    2010-01-01

    Recent technological advances combined with more detailed analyses of seismologic and geodetic observations have fundamentally changed our understanding of the ways in which tectonic stresses arising from plate motions are accommodated by slip on faults. The traditional view that relative plate motions are accommodated by a simple cycle of stress accumulation and release on “locked” plate-boundary faults has been revolutionized by the serendipitous discovery and recognition of the significance of slow-slip phenomena, mostly in the deeper reaches of subduction zones. The Cascadia subduction zone, located in the Pacific Northwest of the conterminous United States and adjacent Canada, is an archetype of exploration and learning about slow-slip phenomena. These phenomena are manifest as geodetically observed aseismic transient deformations accompanied by a previously unrecognized class of seismic signals. Although secondary failure processes may be involved in generating the seismic signals, the primary origins of both aseismic and seismic phenomena appear to be episodic fault slip, probably facilitated by fluids, on a plate interface that is critically stressed or weakened. In Cascadia, this transient slip evolves more slowly and over more prolonged durations relative to the slip in earthquakes, and it occurs between the 30- and 40-km-depth contours of the plate interface where information was previously elusive. Although there is some underlying organization that relaxes nearly all the accrued plate-motion stresses along the entirety of Cascadia, we now infer that slow slip evolves in complex patterns indicative of propagating stress fronts. Our new understanding provides key constraints not only on the region where the slow slip originates, but also on the probable characteristics of future megathrust earthquakes in Cascadia. Herein, we review the most significant scientific issues and progress related to understanding slow-slip phenomena in Cascadia and

  4. A new asymptotic method for jump phenomena

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reiss, E. L.

    1980-01-01

    Physical phenomena involving rapid and sudden transitions, such as snap buckling of elastic shells, explosions, and earthquakes, are characterized mathematically as a small disturbance causing a large-amplitude response. Because of this, standard asymptotic and perturbation methods are ill-suited to these problems. In the present paper, a new method of analyzing jump phenomena is proposed. The principal feature of the method is the representation of the response in terms of rational functions. For illustration, the method is applied to the snap buckling of an elastic arch and to a simple combustion problem.

  5. Strong earthquakes, novae and cosmic ray environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yu, Z. D.

    1985-01-01

    Observations about the relationship between seismic activity and astronomical phenomena are discussed. First, after investigating the seismic data (magnitude 7.0 and over) with the method of superposed epochs it is found that world seismicity evidently increased after the occurring of novae with apparent magnitude brighter than 2.2. Second, a great many earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 and over occurred in the 13th month after two of the largest ground level solar cosmic ray events (GLEs). The causes of three high level phenomena of global seismic activity in 1918-1965 can be related to these, and it is suggested that according to the information of large GLE or bright nova predictions of the times of global intense seismic activity can be made.

  6. Earthquakes on Your Dinner Table

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexeev, N. A.; Tape, C.; Alexeev, V. A.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquakes have interesting physics applicable to other phenomena like propagation of waves, also, they affect human lives. This study focused on three questions, how: depth, distance from epicenter and ground hardness affect earthquake strength. Experimental setup consisted of a gelatin slab to simulate crust. The slab was hit with a weight and earthquake amplitude was measured. It was found that earthquake amplitude was larger when the epicenter was deeper, which contradicts observations and probably was an artifact of the design. Earthquake strength was inversely proportional to the distance from the epicenter, which generally follows reality. Soft and medium jello were implanted into hard jello. It was found that earthquakes are stronger in softer jello, which was a result of resonant amplification in soft ground. Similar results are found in Minto Flats, where earthquakes are stronger and last longer than in the nearby hills. Earthquakes waveforms from Minto Flats showed that that the oscillations there have longer periods compared to the nearby hills with harder soil. Two gelatin pieces with identical shapes and different hardness were vibrated on a platform at varying frequencies in order to demonstrate that their resonant frequencies are statistically different. This phenomenon also occurs in Yukon Flats.

  7. An interdisciplinary approach to study Pre-Earthquake processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouzounov, D.; Pulinets, S. A.; Hattori, K.; Taylor, P. T.

    2017-12-01

    We will summarize a multi-year research effort on wide-ranging observations of pre-earthquake processes. Based on space and ground data we present some new results relevant to the existence of pre-earthquake signals. Over the past 15-20 years there has been a major revival of interest in pre-earthquake studies in Japan, Russia, China, EU, Taiwan and elsewhere. Recent large magnitude earthquakes in Asia and Europe have shown the importance of these various studies in the search for earthquake precursors either for forecasting or predictions. Some new results were obtained from modeling of the atmosphere-ionosphere connection and analyses of seismic records (foreshocks /aftershocks), geochemical, electromagnetic, and thermodynamic processes related to stress changes in the lithosphere, along with their statistical and physical validation. This cross - disciplinary approach could make an impact on our further understanding of the physics of earthquakes and the phenomena that precedes their energy release. We also present the potential impact of these interdisciplinary studies to earthquake predictability. A detail summary of our approach and that of several international researchers will be part of this session and will be subsequently published in a new AGU/Wiley volume. This book is part of the Geophysical Monograph series and is intended to show the variety of parameters seismic, atmospheric, geochemical and historical involved is this important field of research and will bring this knowledge and awareness to a broader geosciences community.

  8. Recurrence and interoccurrence behavior of self-organized complex phenomena

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abaimov, S. G.; Turcotte, D. L.; Shcherbakov, R.; Rundle, J. B.

    2007-08-01

    The sandpile, forest-fire and slider-block models are said to exhibit self-organized criticality. Associated natural phenomena include landslides, wildfires, and earthquakes. In all cases the frequency-size distributions are well approximated by power laws (fractals). Another important aspect of both the models and natural phenomena is the statistics of interval times. These statistics are particularly important for earthquakes. For earthquakes it is important to make a distinction between interoccurrence and recurrence times. Interoccurrence times are the interval times between earthquakes on all faults in a region whereas recurrence times are interval times between earthquakes on a single fault or fault segment. In many, but not all cases, interoccurrence time statistics are exponential (Poissonian) and the events occur randomly. However, the distribution of recurrence times are often Weibull to a good approximation. In this paper we study the interval statistics of slip events using a slider-block model. The behavior of this model is sensitive to the stiffness α of the system, α=kC/kL where kC is the spring constant of the connector springs and kL is the spring constant of the loader plate springs. For a soft system (small α) there are no system-wide events and interoccurrence time statistics of the larger events are Poissonian. For a stiff system (large α), system-wide events dominate the energy dissipation and the statistics of the recurrence times between these system-wide events satisfy the Weibull distribution to a good approximation. We argue that this applicability of the Weibull distribution is due to the power-law (scale invariant) behavior of the hazard function, i.e. the probability that the next event will occur at a time t0 after the last event has a power-law dependence on t0. The Weibull distribution is the only distribution that has a scale invariant hazard function. We further show that the onset of system-wide events is a well defined

  9. Relating stick-slip friction experiments to earthquake source parameters

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGarr, Arthur F.

    2012-01-01

    Analytical results for parameters, such as static stress drop, for stick-slip friction experiments, with arbitrary input parameters, can be determined by solving an energy-balance equation. These results can then be related to a given earthquake based on its seismic moment and the maximum slip within its rupture zone, assuming that the rupture process entails the same physics as stick-slip friction. This analysis yields overshoots and ratios of apparent stress to static stress drop of about 0.25. The inferred earthquake source parameters static stress drop, apparent stress, slip rate, and radiated energy are robust inasmuch as they are largely independent of the experimental parameters used in their estimation. Instead, these earthquake parameters depend on C, the ratio of maximum slip to the cube root of the seismic moment. C is controlled by the normal stress applied to the rupture plane and the difference between the static and dynamic coefficients of friction. Estimating yield stress and seismic efficiency using the same procedure is only possible when the actual static and dynamic coefficients of friction are known within the earthquake rupture zone.

  10. Modeling fast and slow earthquakes at various scales

    PubMed Central

    IDE, Satoshi

    2014-01-01

    Earthquake sources represent dynamic rupture within rocky materials at depth and often can be modeled as propagating shear slip controlled by friction laws. These laws provide boundary conditions on fault planes embedded in elastic media. Recent developments in observation networks, laboratory experiments, and methods of data analysis have expanded our knowledge of the physics of earthquakes. Newly discovered slow earthquakes are qualitatively different phenomena from ordinary fast earthquakes and provide independent information on slow deformation at depth. Many numerical simulations have been carried out to model both fast and slow earthquakes, but problems remain, especially with scaling laws. Some mechanisms are required to explain the power-law nature of earthquake rupture and the lack of characteristic length. Conceptual models that include a hierarchical structure over a wide range of scales would be helpful for characterizing diverse behavior in different seismic regions and for improving probabilistic forecasts of earthquakes. PMID:25311138

  11. Modeling fast and slow earthquakes at various scales.

    PubMed

    Ide, Satoshi

    2014-01-01

    Earthquake sources represent dynamic rupture within rocky materials at depth and often can be modeled as propagating shear slip controlled by friction laws. These laws provide boundary conditions on fault planes embedded in elastic media. Recent developments in observation networks, laboratory experiments, and methods of data analysis have expanded our knowledge of the physics of earthquakes. Newly discovered slow earthquakes are qualitatively different phenomena from ordinary fast earthquakes and provide independent information on slow deformation at depth. Many numerical simulations have been carried out to model both fast and slow earthquakes, but problems remain, especially with scaling laws. Some mechanisms are required to explain the power-law nature of earthquake rupture and the lack of characteristic length. Conceptual models that include a hierarchical structure over a wide range of scales would be helpful for characterizing diverse behavior in different seismic regions and for improving probabilistic forecasts of earthquakes.

  12. Facilitation of intermediate-depth earthquakes by eclogitization-related stresses and H2O

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakajima, J.; Uchida, N.; Hasegawa, A.; Shiina, T.; Hacker, B. R.; Kirby, S. H.

    2012-12-01

    Generation of intermediate-depth earthquakes is an ongoing enigma because high lithostatic pressures render ordinary dry frictional failure unlikely. A popular hypothesis to solve this conundrum is fluid-related embrittlement (e.g., Kirby et al., 1996; Preston et al., 2003), which is known to work even for dehydration reactions with negative volume change (Jung et al., 2004). One consequence of reaction with the negative volume change is the formation of a paired stress field as a result of strain compatibility across the reaction front (Hacker, 1996; Kirby et al., 1996). Here we analyze waveforms of a tiny seismic cluster in the lower crust of the downgoing Pacific plate at a depth of 155 km and propose new evidence in favor of this mechanism: tensional earthquakes lying 1 km above compressional earthquakes, and earthquakes with highly similar waveforms lying on well-defined planes with complementary rupture areas. The tensional stress is interpreted to be caused by the dimensional mismatch between crust transformed to eclogite and underlying untransformed crust, and the earthquakes are interpreted to be facilitated by fluid produced by eclogitization. These observations provide seismic evidence for the dual roles of volume-change related stresses and fluid-related embrittlement as viable processes for nucleating earthquakes in downgoing oceanic lithosphere.

  13. Earthquake clouds and physical mechanism of their formation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doda, L.; Pulinets, S.

    2006-12-01

    The Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere (LAI) coupling model created recently permitted to explain some unknown phenomena observed around the time of strong earthquakes. One of them is formation of special shape clouds, usually presented as the thin linear structures. It was discovered that these clouds are associated with the active tectonic faults or with the tectonic plate borders. They repeat the fault shape but usually are turned in relation to the fault position. Their formation is explained by the anomalous vertical electric field generated in the vicinity of active tectonic structure due to air ionization produced by the radon increased emanation. The new formed ions through the hydration process do not recombine and growth with time due to increased water molecules attachment to the ion. Simultaneously they move up driven by the anomalous electric field and drift in the crossed ExB fields. At the higher altitudes the large ion clusters become the centers of condensation and the cloud formation. Examples for the recent major earthquakes (Sumatra 2004, Kashmir 2005, Java 2006) are presented. The size and the angle of the cloud rotation in relation to the fault position permit to estimate the magnitude of the impending earthquake.

  14. Fear based Education or Curiosity based Education as an Example of Earthquake and Natural Disaster Education: Results of Statistical Study in Primary Schools in Istanbul-Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ozcep, T.; Ozcep, F.

    2012-04-01

    Natural disaster reduction focuses on the urgent need for prevention activities to reduce loss of life, damage to property, infrastructure and environment, and the social and economic disruption caused by natural hazards. One of the most important factors in reduction of the potential damage of earthquakes is trained manpower. To understanding the causes of earthquakes and other natural phenomena (landslides, avalanches, floods, volcanoes, etc.) is one of the pre-conditions to show a conscious behavior. The aim of the study is to analysis and to investigate, how earthquakes and other natural phenomena are perceived by the students and the possible consequences of this perception, and their effects of reducing earthquake damage. One of the crucial questions is that is our education system fear or curiosity based education system? Effects of the damages due to earthquakes have led to look like a fear subject. In fact, due to the results of the effects, the earthquakes are perceived scary phenomena. In the first stage of the project, the learning (or perception) levels of earthquakes and other natural disasters for the students of primary school are investigated with a survey. Aim of this survey study of earthquakes and other natural phenomena is that have the students fear based or curiosity based approaching to the earthquakes and other natural events. In the second stage of the project, the path obtained by the survey are evaluated with the statistical point of approach. A questionnaire associated with earthquakes and natural disasters are applied to primary school students (that total number of them is approximately 700 pupils) to measure the curiosity and/or fear levels. The questionnaire consists of 17 questions related to natural disasters. The questions are: "What is the Earthquake ?", "What is power behind earthquake?", "What is the mental response during the earthquake ?", "Did we take lesson from earthquake's results ?", "Are you afraid of earthquake

  15. Earthquake lights and the stress-activation of positive hole charge carriers in rocks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    St-Laurent, F.; Derr, J.S.; Freund, F.T.

    2006-01-01

    Earthquake-related luminous phenomena (also known as earthquake lights) may arise from (1) the stress-activation of positive hole (p-hole) charge carriers in igneous rocks and (2) the accumulation of high charge carrier concentrations at asperities in the crust where the stress rates increase very rapidly as an earthquake approaches. It is proposed that, when a critical charge carrier concentration is reached, the p-holes form a degenerated solid state plasma that can break out of the confined rock volume and propagate as a rapidly expanding charge cloud. Upon reaching the surface the charge cloud causes dielectric breakdown at the air-rock interface, i.e. corona discharges, accompanied by the emission of light and high frequency electromagnetic radiation. ?? 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. The 2012 Mw5.6 earthquake in Sofia seismogenic zone - is it a slow earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raykova, Plamena; Solakov, Dimcho; Slavcheva, Krasimira; Simeonova, Stela; Aleksandrova, Irena

    2017-04-01

    Recently our understanding of tectonic faulting has been shaken by the discoveries of seismic tremor, low frequency earthquakes, slow slip events, and other models of fault slip. These phenomenas represent models of failure that were thought to be non-existent and theoretically impossible only a few years ago. Slow earthquakes are seismic phenomena in which the rupture of geological faults in the earth's crust occurs gradually without creating strong tremors. Despite the growing number of observations of slow earthquakes their origin remains unresolved. Studies show that the duration of slow earthquakes ranges from a few seconds to a few hundred seconds. The regular earthquakes with which most people are familiar release a burst of built-up stress in seconds, slow earthquakes release energy in ways that do little damage. This study focus on the characteristics of the Mw5.6 earthquake occurred in Sofia seismic zone on May 22nd, 2012. The Sofia area is the most populated, industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The Sofia seismic zone is located in South-western Bulgaria - the area with pronounce tectonic activity and proved crustal movement. In 19th century the city of Sofia (situated in the centre of the Sofia seismic zone) has experienced two strong earthquakes with epicentral intensity of 10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK64).The 2012 quake occurs in an area characterized by a long quiescence (of 95 years) for moderate events. Moreover, a reduced number of small earthquakes have also been registered in the recent past. The Mw5.6 earthquake is largely felt on the territory of Bulgaria and neighbouring countries. No casualties and severe injuries have been reported. Mostly moderate damages were observed in the cities of Pernik and Sofia and their surroundings. These observations could be assumed indicative for a

  17. Living on an Active Earth: Perspectives on Earthquake Science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lay, Thorne

    2004-02-01

    The annualized long-term loss due to earthquakes in the United States is now estimated at $4.4 billion per year. A repeat of the 1923 Kanto earthquake, near Tokyo, could cause direct losses of $2-3 trillion. With such grim numbers, which are guaranteed to make you take its work seriously, the NRC Committee on the Science of Earthquakes begins its overview of the emerging multidisciplinary field of earthquake science. An up-to-date and forward-looking survey of scientific investigation of earthquake phenomena and engineering response to associated hazards is presented at a suitable level for a general educated audience. Perspectives from the fields of seismology, geodesy, neo-tectonics, paleo-seismology, rock mechanics, earthquake engineering, and computer modeling of complex dynamic systems are integrated into a balanced definition of earthquake science that has never before been adequately articulated.

  18. Real-Time Earthquake Monitoring with Spatio-Temporal Fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whittier, J. C.; Nittel, S.; Subasinghe, I.

    2017-10-01

    With live streaming sensors and sensor networks, increasingly large numbers of individual sensors are deployed in physical space. Sensor data streams are a fundamentally novel mechanism to deliver observations to information systems. They enable us to represent spatio-temporal continuous phenomena such as radiation accidents, toxic plumes, or earthquakes almost as instantaneously as they happen in the real world. Sensor data streams discretely sample an earthquake, while the earthquake is continuous over space and time. Programmers attempting to integrate many streams to analyze earthquake activity and scope need to write code to integrate potentially very large sets of asynchronously sampled, concurrent streams in tedious application code. In previous work, we proposed the field stream data model (Liang et al., 2016) for data stream engines. Abstracting the stream of an individual sensor as a temporal field, the field represents the Earth's movement at the sensor position as continuous. This simplifies analysis across many sensors significantly. In this paper, we undertake a feasibility study of using the field stream model and the open source Data Stream Engine (DSE) Apache Spark(Apache Spark, 2017) to implement a real-time earthquake event detection with a subset of the 250 GPS sensor data streams of the Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN). The field-based real-time stream queries compute maximum displacement values over the latest query window of each stream, and related spatially neighboring streams to identify earthquake events and their extent. Further, we correlated the detected events with an USGS earthquake event feed. The query results are visualized in real-time.

  19. GPS Technologies as a Tool to Detect the Pre-Earthquake Signals Associated with Strong Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulinets, S. A.; Krankowski, A.; Hernandez-Pajares, M.; Liu, J. Y. G.; Hattori, K.; Davidenko, D.; Ouzounov, D.

    2015-12-01

    The existence of ionospheric anomalies before earthquakes is now widely accepted. These phenomena started to be considered by GPS community to mitigate the GPS signal degradation over the territories of the earthquake preparation. The question is still open if they could be useful for seismology and for short-term earthquake forecast. More than decade of intensive studies proved that ionospheric anomalies registered before earthquakes are initiated by processes in the boundary layer of atmosphere over earthquake preparation zone and are induced in the ionosphere by electromagnetic coupling through the Global Electric Circuit. Multiparameter approach based on the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling model demonstrated that earthquake forecast is possible only if we consider the final stage of earthquake preparation in the multidimensional space where every dimension is one from many precursors in ensemble, and they are synergistically connected. We demonstrate approaches developed in different countries (Russia, Taiwan, Japan, Spain, and Poland) within the framework of the ISSI and ESA projects) to identify the ionospheric precursors. They are also useful to determine the all three parameters necessary for the earthquake forecast: impending earthquake epicenter position, expectation time and magnitude. These parameters are calculated using different technologies of GPS signal processing: time series, correlation, spectral analysis, ionospheric tomography, wave propagation, etc. Obtained results from different teams demonstrate the high level of statistical significance and physical justification what gives us reason to suggest these methodologies for practical validation.

  20. Nonlinear waves in earth crust faults: application to regular and slow earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gershenzon, Naum; Bambakidis, Gust

    2015-04-01

    The genesis, development and cessation of regular earthquakes continue to be major problems of modern geophysics. How are earthquakes initiated? What factors determine the rapture velocity, slip velocity, rise time and geometry of rupture? How do accumulated stresses relax after the main shock? These and other questions still need to be answered. In addition, slow slip events have attracted much attention as an additional source for monitoring fault dynamics. Recently discovered phenomena such as deep non-volcanic tremor (NVT), low frequency earthquakes (LFE), very low frequency earthquakes (VLF), and episodic tremor and slip (ETS) have enhanced and complemented our knowledge of fault dynamic. At the same time, these phenomena give rise to new questions about their genesis, properties and relation to regular earthquakes. We have developed a model of macroscopic dry friction which efficiently describes laboratory frictional experiments [1], basic properties of regular earthquakes including post-seismic stress relaxation [3], the occurrence of ambient and triggered NVT [4], and ETS events [5, 6]. Here we will discuss the basics of the model and its geophysical applications. References [1] Gershenzon N.I. & G. Bambakidis (2013) Tribology International, 61, 11-18, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.triboint.2012.11.025 [2] Gershenzon, N.I., G. Bambakidis and T. Skinner (2014) Lubricants 2014, 2, 1-x manuscripts; doi:10.3390/lubricants20x000x; arXiv:1411.1030v2 [3] Gershenzon N.I., Bykov V. G. and Bambakidis G., (2009) Physical Review E 79, 056601 [4] Gershenzon, N. I, G. Bambakidis, (2014a), Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 104, 4, doi: 10.1785/0120130234 [5] Gershenzon, N. I.,G. Bambakidis, E. Hauser, A. Ghosh, and K. C. Creager (2011), Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L01309, doi:10.1029/2010GL045225. [6] Gershenzon, N.I. and G. Bambakidis (2014) Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., (in press); arXiv:1411.1020

  1. Comparison of the sand liquefaction estimated based on codes and practical earthquake damage phenomena

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fang, Yi; Huang, Yahong

    2017-12-01

    Conducting sand liquefaction estimated based on codes is the important content of the geotechnical design. However, the result, sometimes, fails to conform to the practical earthquake damages. Based on the damage of Tangshan earthquake and engineering geological conditions, three typical sites are chosen. Moreover, the sand liquefaction probability was evaluated on the three sites by using the method in the Code for Seismic Design of Buildings and the results were compared with the sand liquefaction phenomenon in the earthquake. The result shows that the difference between sand liquefaction estimated based on codes and the practical earthquake damage is mainly attributed to the following two aspects: The primary reasons include disparity between seismic fortification intensity and practical seismic oscillation, changes of groundwater level, thickness of overlying non-liquefied soil layer, local site effect and personal error. Meanwhile, although the judgment methods in the codes exhibit certain universality, they are another reason causing the above difference due to the limitation of basic data and the qualitative anomaly of the judgment formulas.

  2. Earthquake mechanism and seafloor deformation for tsunami generation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Geist, Eric L.; Oglesby, David D.; Beer, Michael; Kougioumtzoglou, Ioannis A.; Patelli, Edoardo; Siu-Kui Au, Ivan

    2014-01-01

    Tsunamis are generated in the ocean by rapidly displacing the entire water column over a significant area. The potential energy resulting from this disturbance is balanced with the kinetic energy of the waves during propagation. Only a handful of submarine geologic phenomena can generate tsunamis: large-magnitude earthquakes, large landslides, and volcanic processes. Asteroid and subaerial landslide impacts can generate tsunami waves from above the water. Earthquakes are by far the most common generator of tsunamis. Generally, earthquakes greater than magnitude (M) 6.5–7 can generate tsunamis if they occur beneath an ocean and if they result in predominantly vertical displacement. One of the greatest uncertainties in both deterministic and probabilistic hazard assessments of tsunamis is computing seafloor deformation for earthquakes of a given magnitude.

  3. Earthquake and Tsunami booklet based on two Indonesia earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayashi, Y.; Aci, M.

    2014-12-01

    Many destructive earthquakes occurred during the last decade in Indonesia. These experiences are very important precepts for the world people who live in earthquake and tsunami countries. We are collecting the testimonies of tsunami survivors to clarify successful evacuation process and to make clear the characteristic physical behaviors of tsunami near coast. We research 2 tsunami events, 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and 2010 Mentawai slow earthquake tsunami. Many video and photographs were taken by people at some places in 2004 Indian ocean tsunami disaster; nevertheless these were few restricted points. We didn't know the tsunami behavior in another place. In this study, we tried to collect extensive information about tsunami behavior not only in many places but also wide time range after the strong shake. In Mentawai case, the earthquake occurred in night, so there are no impressive photos. To collect detail information about evacuation process from tsunamis, we contrived the interview method. This method contains making pictures of tsunami experience from the scene of victims' stories. In 2004 Aceh case, all survivors didn't know tsunami phenomena. Because there were no big earthquakes with tsunami for one hundred years in Sumatra region, public people had no knowledge about tsunami. This situation was highly improved in 2010 Mentawai case. TV programs and NGO or governmental public education programs about tsunami evacuation are widespread in Indonesia. Many people know about fundamental knowledge of earthquake and tsunami disasters. We made drill book based on victim's stories and painted impressive scene of 2 events. We used the drill book in disaster education event in school committee of west Java. About 80 % students and teachers evaluated that the contents of the drill book are useful for correct understanding.

  4. Earthquake-Related Injuries in the Pediatric Population: A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Jacquet, Gabrielle A.; Hansoti, Bhakti; Vu, Alexander; Bayram, Jamil D.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Children are a special population, particularly susceptible to injury. Registries for various injury types in the pediatric population are important, not only for epidemiological purposes but also for their implications on intervention programs. Although injury registries already exist, there is no uniform injury classification system for traumatic mass casualty events such as earthquakes. Objective: To systematically review peer-reviewed literature on the patterns of earthquake-related injuries in the pediatric population. Methods: On May 14, 2012, the authors performed a systematic review of literature from 1950 to 2012 indexed in Pubmed, EMBASE, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library. Articles written in English, providing a quantitative description of pediatric injuries were included. Articles focusing on other types of disasters, geological, surgical, conceptual, psychological, indirect injuries, injury complications such as wound infections and acute kidney injury, case reports, reviews, and non-English articles were excluded. Results: A total of 2037 articles were retrieved, of which only 10 contained quantitative earthquake-related pediatric injury data. All studies were retrospective, had different age categorization, and reported injuries heterogeneously. Only 2 studies reported patterns of injury for all pediatric patients, including patients admitted and discharged. Seven articles described injuries by anatomic location, 5 articles described injuries by type, and 2 articles described injuries using both systems. Conclusions: Differences in age categorization of pediatric patients, and in the injury classification system make quantifying the burden of earthquake-related injuries in the pediatric population difficult. A uniform age categorization and injury classification system are paramount for drawing broader conclusions, enhancing disaster preparation for future disasters, and decreasing morbidity and mortality. PMID:24761308

  5. Relationships of earthquakes (and earthquake-associated mass movements) and polar motion as determined by Kalman filtered, Very-Long-Baseline-Interferometry

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Preisig, Joseph Richard Mark

    1988-01-01

    A Kalman filter was designed to yield optimal estimates of geophysical parameters from Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) group delay data. The geophysical parameters are the polar motion components, adjustments to nutation in obliquity and longitude, and a change in the length of day parameter. The VLBI clock (and clock rate) parameters and atmospheric zenith delay parameters are estimated simultaneously. Filter background is explained. The IRIS (International Radio Interferometric Surveying) VLBI data are Kalman filtered. The resulting polar motion estimates are examined. There are polar motion signatures at the times of three large earthquakes occurring in 1984 to 1986: Mexico, 19 September, 1985 (Magnitude M sub s = 8.1); Chile, 3 March, 1985 (M sub s = 7.8); and Taiwan, 14 November, 1986 (M sub s = 7.8). Breaks in polar motion occurring about 20 days after the earthquakes appear to correlate well with the onset of increased regional seismic activity and a return to more normal seismicity (respectively). While the contribution of these three earthquakes to polar motion excitations is small, the cumulative excitation due to earthquakes, or seismic phenomena over a Chandler wobble damping period may be significant. Mechanisms for polar motion excitation due to solid earth phenomena are examined. Excitation functions are computed, but the data spans are too short to draw conclusions based on these data.

  6. INVESTIGATIVE RESEARCH PROJECTS RELATED TO THE TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE (THE GREAT EAST JAPAN EARTHQUAKE) CONDUCTED IN FUKUSHIMA

    PubMed Central

    YAMAMOTO, TOSHIYUKI; HASHIMOTO, YASUHIRO; YOSHIDA, MASAYUKI; OHNO, KIKUO; OHTO, HITOSHI; ABE, MASAFUMI

    2015-01-01

    ABSTRACT Backgrounds: On March 11th 2011, the Tohoku region of Japan was struck by catastrophic disasters. Thousands of people were killed due to a magnitude 9.0 earthquake and its subsequent tsunami. Furthermore, a serious nuclear crisis occurred in Fukushima Prefecture as a result of the disasters, and an emergency evacuation was ordered to people living near the nuclear power plants. There was a lot of anxiety regarding lost families as well as the influences of radioactivity on the health of people and their children. Based on these urgent and uncertain situations, a number of research projects were developed at many institutes both inside and outside Fukushima. Methods: We herein report the investigative research projects related to the Tohoku Earthquake (The Great East Japan Earthquake) conducted after the disasters. The research projects were reviewed by the Institutional Review Board in Fukushima Medical University during the two years following the disasters. The research projects conducted in universities other than Fukushima Medical University were also examined using questionnaire analysis. Results: Among the research projects conducted in Fukushima Medical University (n=424), 7% (n=32) were disaster-related investigative research. The mean duration planned to pursue the projects was 25.5 months. Among these projects, those focusing on the health of Fukushima citizens were most common (n=9), followed by the influence of chronic exposure of radiation on chronic inflammatory disorders (n=6), and the mental health of Fukushima citizens (n=5). They were carefully reviewed for the purpose, suitability, and necessity from ethical as well as scientific viewpoints. The majority of the research projects focused on the effects of the Tohoku Earthquake and/or chronic exposure to low-dose radioactivity on the health of children and pregnant women, as well as on various disorders, such as mental health and chronic inflammatory diseases. On the other hand, among 58

  7. INVESTIGATIVE RESEARCH PROJECTS RELATED TO THE TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE (THE GREAT EAST JAPAN EARTHQUAKE) CONDUCTED IN FUKUSHIMA.

    PubMed

    Yamamoto, Toshiyuki; Hashimoto, Yasuhiro; Yoshida, Masayuki; Ohno, Kikuo; Ohto, Hitoshi; Abe, Masafumi

    2015-01-01

    On March 11(th) 2011, the Tohoku region of Japan was struck by catastrophic disasters. Thousands of people were killed due to a magnitude 9.0 earthquake and its subsequent tsunami. Furthermore, a serious nuclear crisis occurred in Fukushima Prefecture as a result of the disasters, and an emergency evacuation was ordered to people living near the nuclear power plants. There was a lot of anxiety regarding lost families as well as the influences of radioactivity on the health of people and their children. Based on these urgent and uncertain situations, a number of research projects were developed at many institutes both inside and outside Fukushima. We herein report the investigative research projects related to the Tohoku Earthquake (The Great East Japan Earthquake) conducted after the disasters. The research projects were reviewed by the Institutional Review Board in Fukushima Medical University during the two years following the disasters. The research projects conducted in universities other than Fukushima Medical University were also examined using questionnaire analysis. Among the research projects conducted in Fukushima Medical University (n=424), 7% (n=32) were disaster-related investigative research. The mean duration planned to pursue the projects was 25.5 months. Among these projects, those focusing on the health of Fukushima citizens were most common (n=9), followed by the influence of chronic exposure of radiation on chronic inflammatory disorders (n=6), and the mental health of Fukushima citizens (n=5). They were carefully reviewed for the purpose, suitability, and necessity from ethical as well as scientific viewpoints. The majority of the research projects focused on the effects of the Tohoku Earthquake and/or chronic exposure to low-dose radioactivity on the health of children and pregnant women, as well as on various disorders, such as mental health and chronic inflammatory diseases. On the other hand, among 58 projects we collected from 22

  8. Earthquake Damping Device for Steel Frame

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zamri Ramli, Mohd; Delfy, Dezoura; Adnan, Azlan; Torman, Zaida

    2018-04-01

    Structures such as buildings, bridges and towers are prone to collapse when natural phenomena like earthquake occurred. Therefore, many design codes are reviewed and new technologies are introduced to resist earthquake energy especially on building to avoid collapse. The tuned mass damper is one of the earthquake reduction products introduced on structures to minimise the earthquake effect. This study aims to analyse the effectiveness of tuned mass damper by experimental works and finite element modelling. The comparisons are made between these two models under harmonic excitation. Based on the result, it is proven that installing tuned mass damper will reduce the dynamic response of the frame but only in several input frequencies. At the highest input frequency applied, the tuned mass damper failed to reduce the responses. In conclusion, in order to use a proper design of damper, detailed analysis must be carried out to have sufficient design based on the location of the structures with specific ground accelerations.

  9. Natural phenomena evaluations of the K-25 site UF{sub 6} cylinder storage yards

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Fricke, K.E.

    1996-09-15

    The K-25 Site UF{sub 6} cylinder storage yards are used for the temporary storage of UF{sub 6} normal assay cylinders and long-term storage of other UF{sub 6} cylinders. The K-25 Site UF{sub 6} cylinder storage yards consist of six on-site areas: K-1066-B, K-1066-E, K-1066-F, K-1066-J, K-1066-K and K-1066-L. There are no permanent structures erected on the cylinder yards, except for five portable buildings. The operating contractor for the K-25 Site is preparing a Safety Analysis Report (SAR) to examine the safety related aspects of the K-25 Site UF{sub 6} cylinder storage yards. The SAR preparation encompasses many tasks terminating inmore » consequence analysis for the release of gaseous and liquid UF{sub 6}, one of which is the evaluation of natural phenomena threats, such as earthquakes, floods, and winds. In support of the SAR, the six active cylinder storage yards were evaluated for vulnerabilities to natural phenomena, earthquakes, high winds and tornados, tornado-generated missiles, floods (local and regional), and lightning. This report summarizes those studies. 30 refs.« less

  10. Strain buildup and release, earthquake prediction and selection of VBL sites for margins of the north Pacific

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scholz, C. H.; Bilham, R.; Johnson, T. L.

    1981-01-01

    During the past year, the grant supported research on several aspects of crustal deformation. The relation between earthquake displacements and fault dimensions was studied in an effort to find scaling laws that relate static parameters such as slip and stress drop to the dimensions of the rupture. Several implications of the static relations for the dynamic properties of earthquakes such as rupture velocity and dynamic stress drop were proposed. A theoretical basis for earthquake related phenomena associated with slow rupture growth or propagation, such as delayed multiple events, was developed using the stress intensity factor defined in fracture mechanics and experimental evidence from studies of crack growth by stress corrosion. Finally, extensive studies by Japanese geologists have established the offset across numerous faults in Japan over the last one hundred thousand years. These observations of intraplate faulting are being used to establish the spatial variations of the average strain rate of subregions in southern Japan.

  11. Ionospheric Anomalies Related to the (M = 7.3), August 27, 2012, Puerto Earthquake, (M = 6.8), August 30, 2012 Jan Mayen Island Earthquake, and (M = 7.6), August 31, 2012, Philippines Earthquake: Two-Dimensional Principal Component Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Jyh-Woei

    2013-01-01

    Two-dimensional principal component analysis (2DPCA) and principal component analysis (PCA) are used to examine the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) data during the time period from 00:00 on August 21 to 12: 45 on August 31 (UT), which are 10 days before the M = 7.6 Philippines earthquake at 12:47:34 on August 31, 2012 (UT) with the depth at 34.9 km. From the results by using 2DPCA, a TEC precursor of Philippines earthquake is found during the time period from 4:25 to 4:40 on August 28, 2012 (UT) with the duration time of at least 15 minutes. Another earthquake-related TEC anomaly is detectable for the time period from 04:35 to 04:40 on August 27, 2012 (UT) with the duration time of at least 5 minutes during the Puerto earthquake at 04: 37:20 on August 27, 2012 (UT) (M w = 7.3) with the depth at 20.3 km. The precursor of the Puerto earthquake is not detectable. TEC anomaly is not to be found related to the Jan Mayen Island earthquake (M w = 6.8) at 13:43:24 on August 30, 2012 (UT). These earthquake-related TEC anomalies are detectable by using 2DPCA rather than PCA. They are localized nearby the epicenters of the Philippines and Puerto earthquakes. PMID:23844386

  12. What Can Sounds Tell Us About Earthquake Interactions?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aiken, C.; Peng, Z.

    2012-12-01

    It is important not only for seismologists but also for educators to effectively convey information about earthquakes and the influences earthquakes can have on each other. Recent studies using auditory display [e.g. Kilb et al., 2012; Peng et al. 2012] have depicted catastrophic earthquakes and the effects large earthquakes can have on other parts of the world. Auditory display of earthquakes, which combines static images with time-compressed sound of recorded seismic data, is a new approach to disseminating information to a general audience about earthquakes and earthquake interactions. Earthquake interactions are influential to understanding the underlying physics of earthquakes and other seismic phenomena such as tremors in addition to their source characteristics (e.g. frequency contents, amplitudes). Earthquake interactions can include, for example, a large, shallow earthquake followed by increased seismicity around the mainshock rupture (i.e. aftershocks) or even a large earthquake triggering earthquakes or tremors several hundreds to thousands of kilometers away [Hill and Prejean, 2007; Peng and Gomberg, 2010]. We use standard tools like MATLAB, QuickTime Pro, and Python to produce animations that illustrate earthquake interactions. Our efforts are focused on producing animations that depict cross-section (side) views of tremors triggered along the San Andreas Fault by distant earthquakes, as well as map (bird's eye) views of mainshock-aftershock sequences such as the 2011/08/23 Mw5.8 Virginia earthquake sequence. These examples of earthquake interactions include sonifying earthquake and tremor catalogs as musical notes (e.g. piano keys) as well as audifying seismic data using time-compression. Our overall goal is to use auditory display to invigorate a general interest in earthquake seismology that leads to the understanding of how earthquakes occur, how earthquakes influence one another as well as tremors, and what the musical properties of these

  13. Testing new methodologies for short -term earthquake forecasting: Multi-parameters precursors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouzounov, Dimitar; Pulinets, Sergey; Tramutoli, Valerio; Lee, Lou; Liu, Tiger; Hattori, Katsumi; Kafatos, Menas

    2014-05-01

    We are conducting real-time tests involving multi-parameter observations over different seismo-tectonics regions in our investigation of phenomena preceding major earthquakes. Our approach is based on a systematic analysis of several selected parameters, namely: gas discharge; thermal infrared radiation; ionospheric electron density; and atmospheric temperature and humidity, which we believe are all associated with the earthquake preparation phase. We are testing a methodology capable to produce alerts in advance of major earthquakes (M > 5.5) in different regions of active earthquakes and volcanoes. During 2012-2013 we established a collaborative framework with PRE-EARTHQUAKE (EU) and iSTEP3 (Taiwan) projects for coordinated measurements and prospective validation over seven testing regions: Southern California (USA), Eastern Honshu (Japan), Italy, Greece, Turkey, Taiwan (ROC), Kamchatka and Sakhalin (Russia). The current experiment provided a "stress test" opportunity to validate the physical based earthquake precursor approach over regions of high seismicity. Our initial results are: (1) Real-time tests have shown the presence of anomalies in the atmosphere and ionosphere before most of the significant (M>5.5) earthquakes; (2) False positives exist and ratios are different for each region, varying between 50% for (Southern Italy), 35% (California) down to 25% (Taiwan, Kamchatka and Japan) with a significant reduction of false positives as soon as at least two geophysical parameters are contemporarily used; (3) Main problems remain related to the systematic collection and real-time integration of pre-earthquake observations. Our findings suggest that real-time testing of physically based pre-earthquake signals provides a short-term predictive power (in all three important parameters, namely location, time and magnitude) for the occurrence of major earthquakes in the tested regions and this result encourages testing to continue with a more detailed analysis of

  14. Earthquake-Related Orthopedic Injuries in Adult Population: A Systematic Review.

    PubMed

    Bortolin, Michelangelo; Morelli, Ilaria; Voskanyan, Amalia; Joyce, Nina R; Ciottone, Gregory R

    2017-04-01

    Introduction Earthquake-related trauma results in crush injuries and bony- and soft-tissue trauma. There are no systematic reviews analyzing the typical injury patterns and treatments in "Mega-Mass-Casualty" earthquakes. The characterization of an injury pattern specific to disaster type, be it natural or manmade, is imperative to build an effective disaster preparedness and response system. The systematic review was conducted in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA). A comprehensive search strategy was developed to identify all publications relating to earthquakes and the orthopedic treatment in adult patients. The following databases were searched: PubMed (Medline; US National Library of Medicine, National Institutes of Health; Bethesda, Maryland USA), Ovid (Ovid Technologies; New York, New York USA), Web of Science (Thomson Reuters; New York, New York USA), and The Cochrane Library (The Cochrane Collaboration; Oxford, United Kingdom). The searches identified 4,704 articles: 4,445 after duplicates were removed. The papers were screened for title and abstract and 65 out of those were selected for full-text analysis. The quality of data does not permit a standard-of-care (SOC) to be defined. Scarcity and poor quality of the data collected also may suggest a low level of accountability of the activity of the international hospital teams. Qualitatively, it is possible to define that there are more open fractures during daytime hours than at night. Excluding data about open and closed fractures, for all types of injuries, the results underline that the higher the impact of the earthquake, as measured by Richter Magnitude Scale (RMS), the higher is the number of injuries. Discussion Regarding orthopedic injuries during earthquakes, special attention must be paid to the management of the lower limbs most frequently injured. Spinal cord involvement following spine fractures is an important issue: this underlines how a

  15. From Data-Sharing to Model-Sharing: SCEC and the Development of Earthquake System Science (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jordan, T. H.

    2009-12-01

    Earthquake system science seeks to construct system-level models of earthquake phenomena and use them to predict emergent seismic behavior—an ambitious enterprise that requires high degree of interdisciplinary, multi-institutional collaboration. This presentation will explore model-sharing structures that have been successful in promoting earthquake system science within the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). These include disciplinary working groups to aggregate data into community models; numerical-simulation working groups to investigate system-specific phenomena (process modeling) and further improve the data models (inverse modeling); and interdisciplinary working groups to synthesize predictive system-level models. SCEC has developed a cyberinfrastructure, called the Community Modeling Environment, that can distribute the community models; manage large suites of numerical simulations; vertically integrate the hardware, software, and wetware needed for system-level modeling; and promote the interactions among working groups needed for model validation and refinement. Various socio-scientific structures contribute to successful model-sharing. Two of the most important are “communities of trust” and collaborations between government and academic scientists on mission-oriented objectives. The latter include improvements of earthquake forecasts and seismic hazard models and the use of earthquake scenarios in promoting public awareness and disaster management.

  16. Earthquake Source Mechanics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    The past 2 decades have seen substantial progress in our understanding of the nature of the earthquake faulting process, but increasingly, the subject has become an interdisciplinary one. Thus, although the observation of radiated seismic waves remains the primary tool for studying earthquakes (and has been increasingly focused on extracting the physical processes occurring in the “source”), geological studies have also begun to play a more important role in understanding the faulting process. Additionally, defining the physical underpinning for these phenomena has come to be an important subject in experimental and theoretical rock mechanics.In recognition of this, a Maurice Ewing Symposium was held at Arden House, Harriman, N.Y. (the former home of the great American statesman Averill Harriman), May 20-23, 1985. The purpose of the meeting was to bring together the international community of experimentalists, theoreticians, and observationalists who are engaged in the study of various aspects of earthquake source mechanics. The conference was attended by more than 60 scientists from nine countries (France, Italy, Japan, Poland, China, the United Kingdom, United States, Soviet Union, and the Federal Republic of Germany).

  17. Precise relative locations for earthquakes in the northeast Pacific region

    DOE PAGES

    Cleveland, K. Michael; VanDeMark, Thomas F.; Ammon, Charles J.

    2015-10-09

    We report that double-difference methods applied to cross-correlation measured Rayleigh wave time shifts are an effective tool to improve epicentroid locations and relative origin time shifts in remote regions. We apply these methods to seismicity offshore of southwestern Canada and the U.S. Pacific Northwest, occurring along the boundaries of the Pacific and Juan de Fuca (including the Explorer Plate and Gorda Block) Plates. The Blanco, Mendocino, Revere-Dellwood, Nootka, and Sovanco fracture zones host the majority of this seismicity, largely consisting of strike-slip earthquakes. The Explorer, Juan de Fuca, and Gorda spreading ridges join these fracture zones and host normal faultingmore » earthquakes. Our results show that at least the moderate-magnitude activity clusters along fault strike, supporting suggestions of large variations in seismic coupling along oceanic transform faults. Our improved relative locations corroborate earlier interpretations of the internal deformation in the Explorer and Gorda Plates. North of the Explorer Plate, improved locations support models that propose northern extension of the Revere-Dellwood fault. Relocations also support interpretations that favor multiple parallel active faults along the Blanco Transform Fault Zone. Seismicity of the western half of the Blanco appears more scattered and less collinear than the eastern half, possibly related to fault maturity. We use azimuthal variations in the Rayleigh wave cross-correlation amplitude to detect and model rupture directivity for a moderate size earthquake along the eastern Blanco Fault. Lastly, the observations constrain the seismogenic zone geometry and suggest a relatively narrow seismogenic zone width of 2 to 4 km.« less

  18. Health behaviors of victims and related factors in Wenchuan earthquake resettlement sites.

    PubMed

    Liu, Qiaolan; Zhou, Hongyu; Zhou, Huan; Yang, Yang; Yang, Xiaoyan; Yu, Lingyun; Qiu, Peiyuan; Ma, Xiao

    2011-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to describe the health behaviors of earthquake victims related to gastrointestinal and respiratory infectious diseases in the centralized transitional earthquake resettlement sites in Wenchuan, China; and to identify key factors related to health behaviors that may inform local infectious diseases prevention and control strategies. Data were collected using a questionnaire that included questions about socio-demographic characteristics and health beliefs and behaviors. In total, 1411 participants were included through a two-stage random sampling strategy. A bivariate multilevel model was used to explore the related factors. Approximately 67% of the participants wash their hands after going to lavatories every time, and 87% felt uncomfortable spitting on the ground. The more the participants perceived their susceptibility to and the severity of infectious diseases, the better their health-related behaviors (P < 0.05). Both health-related behaviors were influenced by communication modes of health education (P = 0.01) and socio-demographic characteristics. There was heterogeneity of health-related behaviors among different resettlement sites (P < 0.01). Health education intervention, based on the Health Belief Model, is one of the main preventative strategies that should be implemented to inspire self-efficacy and to enhance better health-related behaviors among earthquake victims. Appropriate health education communication modes should be considered among different resettlement sites. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Prospective Validation of Pre-earthquake Atmospheric Signals and Their Potential for Short–term Earthquake Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouzounov, Dimitar; Pulinets, Sergey; Hattori, Katsumi; Lee, Lou; Liu, Tiger; Kafatos, Menas

    2015-04-01

    We are presenting the latest development in multi-sensors observations of short-term pre-earthquake phenomena preceding major earthquakes. Our challenge question is: "Whether such pre-earthquake atmospheric/ionospheric signals are significant and could be useful for early warning of large earthquakes?" To check the predictive potential of atmospheric pre-earthquake signals we have started to validate anomalous ionospheric / atmospheric signals in retrospective and prospective modes. The integrated satellite and terrestrial framework (ISTF) is our method for validation and is based on a joint analysis of several physical and environmental parameters (Satellite thermal infrared radiation (STIR), electron concentration in the ionosphere (GPS/TEC), radon/ion activities, air temperature and seismicity patterns) that were found to be associated with earthquakes. The science rationale for multidisciplinary analysis is based on concept Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) [Pulinets and Ouzounov, 2011], which explains the synergy of different geospace processes and anomalous variations, usually named short-term pre-earthquake anomalies. Our validation processes consist in two steps: (1) A continuous retrospective analysis preformed over two different regions with high seismicity- Taiwan and Japan for 2003-2009 (2) Prospective testing of STIR anomalies with potential for M5.5+ events. The retrospective tests (100+ major earthquakes, M>5.9, Taiwan and Japan) show STIR anomalous behavior before all of these events with false negatives close to zero. False alarm ratio for false positives is less then 25%. The initial prospective testing for STIR shows systematic appearance of anomalies in advance (1-30 days) to the M5.5+ events for Taiwan, Kamchatka-Sakhalin (Russia) and Japan. Our initial prospective results suggest that our approach show a systematic appearance of atmospheric anomalies, one to several days prior to the largest earthquakes That feature could be

  20. Alaskan seismic gap only partially filled by 28 February 1979 earthquake

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Lahr, J.C.; Stephens, C.D.; Hasegawa, H.S.

    1980-03-21

    The Saint Elias, Alaska, earthquake (magnitude 7.7) of 28 February 1979 is the first major earthquake since 1900 to occur along the complex Pacific-North American plate boundary between Yakutat Bay and Prince William Sound. This event involved complex rupture on a shallow, low-angle, north-dipping fault beneath the Chugach and Saint Elias Mountains. The plate boundary between Yakutat Bay and Prince William Sound had been identified as a seismic gap, an area devoid of major earthquakes during the last few decades, and was thought to be a likely site for a future major earthquake. Since the Saint Elias earthquake fills onlymore » the eastern quarter of the gap, the remainder of the gap to the west is a prime area for the study of precursory and coseismic phenomena associated with large earthquakes. 1 figure, 1 table.« less

  1. Seismic, structural, and individual factors associated with earthquake related injury

    PubMed Central

    Peek-Asa, C; Ramirez, M; Seligson, H; Shoaf, K

    2003-01-01

    Background: Earthquakes cause thousands of deaths worldwide every year, and systematic study of the causes of these deaths can lead to their prevention. Few studies have examined how multiple types of risk factors are related to physical injury during an earthquake. Methods: A population based case-control study was conducted to examine how individual characteristics, building characteristics, and seismic features of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake contributed to physical injury. Cases included fatal and hospital-admitted injuries caused by the earthquake. Controls were drawn from a population based phone survey of county residents. Cases were individually matched to two sets of controls: one matched by age and gender and one matched by location at the time of the earthquake. Results: Individuals over age 65 had 2.9 times the risk of injury as younger people (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2 to 7.4) and women had a 2.4 times greater risk than men (95% CI 1.2 to 5.1). Location in multiple unit residential and commercial structures each led to increased injury risk compared with single unit residential structures, but the exact estimate varied depending on the control group used. With every increase in ground motion of 10%g, injury risk increased 2.2 times (95% CI 1.6 to 3.3). Conclusions: Controlling for other factors, it was found that individual, building, and seismic characteristics were independently predictive of increased injury risk. Prevention and preparedness efforts should focus on each of these as potential points of intervention. PMID:12642562

  2. Satellite Infrared Radiation Measurements Prior to the Major Earthquakes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ouzounov, Dimitar; Pulintes, S.; Bryant, N.; Taylor, Patrick; Freund, F.

    2005-01-01

    This work describes our search for a relationship between tectonic stresses and increases in mid-infrared (IR) flux as part of a possible ensemble of electromagnetic (EM) phenomena that may be related to earthquake activity. We present and &scuss observed variations in thermal transients and radiation fields prior to the earthquakes of Jan 22, 2003 Colima (M6.7) Mexico, Sept. 28 .2004 near Parkfield (M6.0) in California and Northern Sumatra (M8.5) Dec. 26,2004. Previous analysis of earthquake events has indicated the presence of an IR anomaly, where temperatures increased or did not return to its usual nighttime value. Our procedures analyze nighttime satellite data that records the general condtion of the ground after sunset. We have found from the MODIS instrument data that five days before the Colima earthquake the IR land surface nighttime temperature rose up to +4 degrees C in a 100 km radius around the epicenter. The IR transient field recorded by MODIS in the vicinity of Parkfield, also with a cloud free environment, was around +1 degree C and is significantly smaller than the IR anomaly around the Colima epicenter. Ground surface temperatures near the Parkfield epicenter four days prior to the earthquake show steady increase. However, on the night preceding the quake, a significant drop in relative humidity was indicated, process similar to those register prior to the Colima event. Recent analyses of continuous ongoing long- wavelength Earth radiation (OLR) indicate significant and anomalous variability prior to some earthquakes. The cause of these anomalies is not well understood but could be the result of a triggering by an interaction between the lithosphere-hydrosphere and atmospheric related to changes in the near surface electrical field and/or gas composition prior to the earthquake. The OLR anomaly usually covers large areas surrounding the main epicenter. We have found strong anomalies signal (two sigma) along the epicentral area signals on Dec 21

  3. Burst of ULF Electric Field Recorded by DEMETER Possibly Related to the Series of Earthquakes Occurred during the Tsunami Over the Indian Region (P19)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gwal, A. K.; Shrivastava, A.

    2006-11-01

    ak_gwal@yahoo.co.in The scientists have found that the accumulation of tectonic energy is localized in certain places and is not universal. Taking into account this hypothesis the authors have studied the sequence of occurrence rate of the earthquakes (M≥5) in the South-East Asian region, as the chronological data related to the occurrence of earthquakes collected in that region for last five years i.e. from 2001 to 2005 have revealed that the disastrous tsunami events which took place on 26th December, 2004 as an effect of Sumatra earthquake( M=9) have increased the occurrence of earthquake frequency for a longer period (which might be due to adjustment of tectonic plates). Observing these facts i.e. sudden enhancement in occurrence rate of earthquakes, the authors have availed this opportunity to further explore the concept of seismoelectromagnetic-ionospheric phenomena, which still needs a lot of statistical evidences, comprising tremendous amount of data to establish it. In this paper the authors have tried to analyze the chain of observations made and data collected and stored month wise w.e.f. 26th December, 2004 to 31st March, 2005 in the region, using DEMETER satellite. Further, efforts have also been made to provide the statistical analysis of the ionospheric variability caused due to detected electromagnetic burst in ULF frequency ranges in the context of natural variability in order to distinguish the variability introduced by other sources. In brief, it could be concluded that there is possibility of getting the electromagnetic precursors in the ionosphere at different frequency ranges due to excess release of tectonic energy as a result of occurrence rate of the earthquakes in the region.

  4. On Earthquake Prediction in Japan

    PubMed Central

    UYEDA, Seiya

    2013-01-01

    Japan’s National Project for Earthquake Prediction has been conducted since 1965 without success. An earthquake prediction should be a short-term prediction based on observable physical phenomena or precursors. The main reason of no success is the failure to capture precursors. Most of the financial resources and manpower of the National Project have been devoted to strengthening the seismographs networks, which are not generally effective for detecting precursors since many of precursors are non-seismic. The precursor research has never been supported appropriately because the project has always been run by a group of seismologists who, in the present author’s view, are mainly interested in securing funds for seismology — on pretense of prediction. After the 1995 Kobe disaster, the project decided to give up short-term prediction and this decision has been further fortified by the 2011 M9 Tohoku Mega-quake. On top of the National Project, there are other government projects, not formally but vaguely related to earthquake prediction, that consume many orders of magnitude more funds. They are also un-interested in short-term prediction. Financially, they are giants and the National Project is a dwarf. Thus, in Japan now, there is practically no support for short-term prediction research. Recently, however, substantial progress has been made in real short-term prediction by scientists of diverse disciplines. Some promising signs are also arising even from cooperation with private sectors. PMID:24213204

  5. Nature of Pre-Earthquake Phenomena and their Effects on Living Organisms

    PubMed Central

    Freund, Friedemann; Stolc, Viktor

    2013-01-01

    Simple Summary Earthquakes are invariably preceded by a period when stresses increase deep in the Earth. Animals appear to be able to sense impending seismic events. During build-up of stress, electronic charge carriers are activated deep below, called positive holes. Positive holes have unusual properties: they can travel fast and far into and through the surrounding rocks. As they flow, they generate ultralow frequency electromagnetic waves. When they arrive at the Earth surface, they can ionize the air. When they flow into water, they oxidize it to hydrogen peroxides. All these physical and chemical processes can have noticeable effects on animals. Abstract Earthquakes occur when tectonic stresses build up deep in the Earth before catastrophic rupture. During the build-up of stress, processes that occur in the crustal rocks lead to the activation of highly mobile electronic charge carriers. These charge carriers are able to flow out of the stressed rock volume into surrounding rocks. Such outflow constitutes an electric current, which generates electromagnetic (EM) signals. If the outflow occurs in bursts, it will lead to short EM pulses. If the outflow is continuous, the currents may fluctuate, generating EM emissions over a wide frequency range. Only ultralow and extremely low frequency (ULF/ELF) waves travel through rock and can reach the Earth surface. The outflowing charge carriers are (i) positively charged and (ii) highly oxidizing. When they arrive at the Earth surface from below, they build up microscopic electric fields, strong enough to field-ionize air molecules. As a result, the air above the epicentral region of an impending major earthquake often becomes laden with positive airborne ions. Medical research has long shown that positive airborne ions cause changes in stress hormone levels in animals and humans. In addition to the ULF/ELF emissions, positive airborne ions can cause unusual reactions among animals. When the charge carriers flow into

  6. Predictability of Landslide Timing From Quasi-Periodic Precursory Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bell, Andrew F.

    2018-02-01

    Accelerating rates of geophysical signals are observed before a range of material failure phenomena. They provide insights into the physical processes controlling failure and the basis for failure forecasts. However, examples of accelerating seismicity before landslides are rare, and their behavior and forecasting potential are largely unknown. Here I use a Bayesian methodology to apply a novel gamma point process model to investigate a sequence of quasiperiodic repeating earthquakes preceding a large landslide at Nuugaatsiaq in Greenland in June 2017. The evolution in earthquake rate is best explained by an inverse power law increase with time toward failure, as predicted by material failure theory. However, the commonly accepted power law exponent value of 1.0 is inconsistent with the data. Instead, the mean posterior value of 0.71 indicates a particularly rapid acceleration toward failure and suggests that only relatively short warning times may be possible for similar landslides in future.

  7. Review of Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) Assessments for the Hanford 200 Areas (Non-Seismic)

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Snow, Robert L.; Ross, Steven B.; Sullivan, Robin S.

    2010-09-24

    The purpose of this review is to assess the need for updating Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) assessments for the Hanford 200 Areas, as required by DOE Order 420.1B Chapter IV, Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation, based on significant changes in state-of-the-art NPH assessment methodology or site-specific information. The review includes all natural phenomena hazards with the exception of seismic/earthquake hazards, which are being addressed under a separate effort. It was determined that existing non-seismic NPH assessments are consistent with current design methodology and site specific data.

  8. 30 CFR 250.192 - What reports and statistics must I submit relating to a hurricane, earthquake, or other natural...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... relating to a hurricane, earthquake, or other natural occurrence? 250.192 Section 250.192 Mineral Resources... What reports and statistics must I submit relating to a hurricane, earthquake, or other natural..., such as a hurricane, a tropical storm, or an earthquake. Statistics include facilities and rigs...

  9. 30 CFR 250.192 - What reports and statistics must I submit relating to a hurricane, earthquake, or other natural...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... relating to a hurricane, earthquake, or other natural occurrence? 250.192 Section 250.192 Mineral Resources... What reports and statistics must I submit relating to a hurricane, earthquake, or other natural..., such as a hurricane, a tropical storm, or an earthquake. Statistics include facilities and rigs...

  10. 30 CFR 250.192 - What reports and statistics must I submit relating to a hurricane, earthquake, or other natural...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... relating to a hurricane, earthquake, or other natural occurrence? 250.192 Section 250.192 Mineral Resources... What reports and statistics must I submit relating to a hurricane, earthquake, or other natural..., such as a hurricane, a tropical storm, or an earthquake. Statistics include facilities and rigs...

  11. Scale-invariant structure of energy fluctuations in real earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Ping; Chang, Zhe; Wang, Huanyu; Lu, Hong

    2017-11-01

    Earthquakes are obviously complex phenomena associated with complicated spatiotemporal correlations, and they are generally characterized by two power laws: the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) and the Omori-Utsu laws. However, an important challenge has been to explain two apparently contrasting features: the GR and Omori-Utsu laws are scale-invariant and unaffected by energy or time scales, whereas earthquakes occasionally exhibit a characteristic energy or time scale, such as with asperity events. In this paper, three high-quality datasets on earthquakes were used to calculate the earthquake energy fluctuations at various spatiotemporal scales, and the results reveal the correlations between seismic events regardless of their critical or characteristic features. The probability density functions (PDFs) of the fluctuations exhibit evidence of another scaling that behaves as a q-Gaussian rather than random process. The scaling behaviors are observed for scales spanning three orders of magnitude. Considering the spatial heterogeneities in a real earthquake fault, we propose an inhomogeneous Olami-Feder-Christensen (OFC) model to describe the statistical properties of real earthquakes. The numerical simulations show that the inhomogeneous OFC model shares the same statistical properties with real earthquakes.

  12. Analysis and selection of magnitude relations for the Working Group on Utah Earthquake Probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Duross, Christopher; Olig, Susan; Schwartz, David

    2015-01-01

    Prior to calculating time-independent and -dependent earthquake probabilities for faults in the Wasatch Front region, the Working Group on Utah Earthquake Probabilities (WGUEP) updated a seismic-source model for the region (Wong and others, 2014) and evaluated 19 historical regressions on earthquake magnitude (M). These regressions relate M to fault parameters for historical surface-faulting earthquakes, including linear fault length (e.g., surface-rupture length [SRL] or segment length), average displacement, maximum displacement, rupture area, seismic moment (Mo ), and slip rate. These regressions show that significant epistemic uncertainties complicate the determination of characteristic magnitude for fault sources in the Basin and Range Province (BRP). For example, we found that M estimates (as a function of SRL) span about 0.3–0.4 units (figure 1) owing to differences in the fault parameter used; age, quality, and size of historical earthquake databases; and fault type and region considered.

  13. Relating triggering processes in lab experiments with earthquakes.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baro Urbea, J.; Davidsen, J.; Kwiatek, G.; Charalampidou, E. M.; Goebel, T.; Stanchits, S. A.; Vives, E.; Dresen, G.

    2016-12-01

    Statistical relations such as Gutenberg-Richter's, Omori-Utsu's and the productivity of aftershocks were first observed in seismology, but are also common to other physical phenomena exhibiting avalanche dynamics such as solar flares, rock fracture, structural phase transitions and even stock market transactions. All these examples exhibit spatio-temporal correlations that can be explained as triggering processes: Instead of being activated as a response to external driving or fluctuations, some events are consequence of previous activity. Although different plausible explanations have been suggested in each system, the ubiquity of such statistical laws remains unknown. However, the case of rock fracture may exhibit a physical connection with seismology. It has been suggested that some features of seismology have a microscopic origin and are reproducible over a vast range of scales. This hypothesis has motivated mechanical experiments to generate artificial catalogues of earthquakes at a laboratory scale -so called labquakes- and under controlled conditions. Microscopic fractures in lab tests release elastic waves that are recorded as ultrasonic (kHz-MHz) acoustic emission (AE) events by means of piezoelectric transducers. Here, we analyse the statistics of labquakes recorded during the failure of small samples of natural rocks and artificial porous materials under different controlled compression regimes. Temporal and spatio-temporal correlations are identified in certain cases. Specifically, we distinguish between the background and triggered events, revealing some differences in the statistical properties. We fit the data to statistical models of seismicity. As a particular case, we explore the branching process approach simplified in the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. We evaluate the empirical spatio-temporal kernel of the model and investigate the physical origins of triggering. Our analysis of the focal mechanisms implies that the occurrence

  14. Study of the characteristics of seismic signals generated by natural and cultural phenomena. [such as earthquakes, sonic booms, and nuclear explosions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goforth, T. T.; Rasmussen, R. K.

    1974-01-01

    Seismic data recorded at the Tonto Forest Seismological Observatory in Arizona and the Uinta Basin Seismological Observatory in Utah were used to compare the frequency of occurrence, severity, and spectral content of ground motions resulting from earthquakes, and other natural and man-made sources with the motions generated by sonic booms. A search of data recorded at the two observatories yielded a classification of over 180,000 earthquake phase arrivals on the basis of frequency of occurrence versus maximum ground velocity. The majority of the large ground velocities were produced by seismic surface waves from moderate to large earthquakes in the western United States, and particularly along the Pacific Coast of the United States and northern Mexico. A visual analysis of raw film seismogram data over a 3-year period indicates that local and regional seismic events, including quarry blasts, are frequent in occurrence, but do not produce ground motions at the observatories comparable to either the large western United States earthquakes or to sonic booms. Seismic data from the Nevada Test Site nuclear blasts were used to derive magnitude-distance-sonic boom overpressure relations.

  15. Predicted Attenuation Relation and Observed Ground Motion of Gorkha Nepal Earthquake of 25 April 2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, R. P.; Ahmad, R.

    2015-12-01

    A comparison of recent observed ground motion parameters of recent Gorkha Nepal earthquake of 25 April 2015 (Mw 7.8) with the predicted ground motion parameters using exitsing attenuation relation of the Himalayan region will be presented. The recent earthquake took about 8000 lives and destroyed thousands of poor quality of buildings and the earthquake was felt by millions of people living in Nepal, China, India, Bangladesh, and Bhutan. The knowledge of ground parameters are very important in developing seismic code of seismic prone regions like Himalaya for better design of buildings. The ground parameters recorded in recent earthquake event and aftershocks are compared with attenuation relations for the Himalayan region, the predicted ground motion parameters show good correlation with the observed ground parameters. The results will be of great use to Civil engineers in updating existing building codes in the Himlayan and surrounding regions and also for the evaluation of seismic hazards. The results clearly show that the attenuation relation developed for the Himalayan region should be only used, other attenuation relations based on other regions fail to provide good estimate of observed ground motion parameters.

  16. 30 CFR 250.192 - What reports and statistics must I submit relating to a hurricane, earthquake, or other natural...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... relating to a hurricane, earthquake, or other natural occurrence? 250.192 Section 250.192 Mineral Resources... Requirements § 250.192 What reports and statistics must I submit relating to a hurricane, earthquake, or other... occurrence, such as a hurricane, a tropical storm, or an earthquake. Statistics include facilities and rigs...

  17. [Family function and depression in relatives of earthquake victims: a survey conducted one year after China's Wenchuan Earthquake].

    PubMed

    Hu, Xiao-Lin; Li, Xiao-Lin; Jiang, Xiao-Lian; Li, Rong; Dou, Xin-Man

    2012-10-01

    The Wenchuan Earthquake that hit Sichuan, China in 2008 not only caused huge losses in terms of human life and economic damage. It also caused psychological trauma in survivors, especially those who had lost relatives and close friends (bereaved). In the aftermath of earthquakes, bereaved individuals require family and spiritual renewal in addition to material assistance. This study investigated the status of and relationship between family function and depression in bereaved individuals living in areas devastated by the Wenchuan Earthquake. Results provide baseline information for post-disaster family reconstruction. This cross-sectional study surveyed 264 qualified bereaved individuals who lived in an area hard hit by the Wenchuan Earthquake. Face-to-face interviews were administered based on the family APGAR(adaptation, partnership, growth, affection, resolve) index and Hamilton depression (HAMD) scale. The mean family function score for participants was 6.52 ± 2.65. Results for half (50.0%) of participants indicated "good" family function. Results indicated marital status, family structure and status of having another baby as factors that significantly influence family function (p < .05). Participants' mean depression score was 40.41 ± 9.35, with all (100%) of participants demonstrating symptoms of depression. The 5 most prevalent depressive symptoms were: depressed mood, decreased interest in work, mental anxiety, diminished capacity and agitation. Results showed marital status, leisure frequency, economic status, and having another baby as factors that significantly influenced family function (p < .05). A Pearson's correlation analysis indicated no significant relationship between level of depression and family function (p >.05). Family functions of the bereaved living in areas hard hit by the Wenchuan Earthquake were all undermined to varying degrees. Although participants all exhibited depressive symptoms, this study found no affect of such symptoms on

  18. Scaling relation between earthquake magnitude and the departure time from P wave similar growth

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Noda, Shunta; Ellsworth, William L.

    2016-01-01

    We introduce a new scaling relation between earthquake magnitude (M) and a characteristic of initial P wave displacement. By examining Japanese K-NET data averaged in bins partitioned by Mw and hypocentral distance, we demonstrate that the P wave displacement briefly displays similar growth at the onset of rupture and that the departure time (Tdp), which is defined as the time of departure from similarity of the absolute displacement after applying a band-pass filter, correlates with the final M in a range of 4.5 ≤ Mw ≤ 7. The scaling relation between Mw and Tdp implies that useful information on the final M can be derived while the event is still in progress because Tdp occurs before the completion of rupture. We conclude that the scaling relation is important not only for earthquake early warning but also for the source physics of earthquakes.

  19. Experimental Study of Thermal Field Evolution in the Short-Impending Stage Before Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Yaqiong; Ma, Jin; Liu, Peixun; Chen, Shunyun

    2017-08-01

    Phenomena at critical points are vital for identifying the short-impending stage prior to earthquakes. The peak stress is a critical point when stress is converted from predominantly accumulation to predominantly release. We call the duration between the peak stress and instability "the meta-instability stage", which refers to the short-impending stage of earthquakes. The meta-instability stage consists of a steady releasing quasi-static stage and an accelerated releasing quasi-dynamic stage. The turning point of the above two stages is the remaining critical point. To identify the two critical points in the field, it is necessary to study the characteristic phenomena of various physical fields in the meta-instability stage in the laboratory, and the strain and displacement variations were studied. Considering that stress and relative displacement can be detected by thermal variations and peculiarities in the full-field observations, we employed a cooled thermal infrared imaging system to record thermal variations in the meta-instability stage of stick slip events generated along a simulated, precut planer strike slip fault in a granodiorite block on a horizontally bilateral servo-controlled press machine. The experimental results demonstrate the following: (1) a large area of decreasing temperatures in wall rocks and increasing temperatures in sporadic sections of the fault indicate entrance into the meta-instability stage. (2) The rapid expansion of regions of increasing temperatures on the fault and the enhancement of temperature increase amplitude correspond to the turning point from the quasi-static stage to the quasi-dynamic stage. Our results reveal thermal indicators for the critical points prior to earthquakes that provide clues for identifying the short-impending stage of earthquakes.

  20. Earthquake precursory events around epicenters and local active faults

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valizadeh Alvan, H.; Mansor, S. B.; Haydari Azad, F.

    2013-05-01

    The chain of underground events which are triggered by seismic activities and physical/chemical interactions prior to a shake in the earth's crust may produce surface and above surface phenomena. During the past decades many researchers have been carried away to seek the possibility of short term earthquake prediction using remote sensing data. Currently, there are several theories about the preparation stages of earthquakes most of which stress on raises in heat and seismic waves as the main signs of an impending earthquakes. Their differences only lie in the secondary phenomena which are triggered by these events. In any case, with the recent advances in remote sensing sensors and techniques now we are able to provide wider, more accurate monitoring of land, ocean and atmosphere. Among all theoretical factors, changes in Surface Latent Heat Flux (SLHF), Sea & Land Surface Temperature (SST & LST) and surface chlorophyll-a are easier to record from earth observing satellites. SLHF is the amount of energy exchange in the form of water vapor between the earth's surface and atmosphere. Abnormal variations in this factor have been frequently reported as an earthquake precursor during the past years. The accumulated stress in the earth's crust during the preparation phase of earthquakes is said to be the main cause of temperature anomalies weeks to days before the main event and subsequent shakes. Chemical and physical interactions in the presence of underground water lead to higher water evaporation prior to inland earthquakes. In case of oceanic earthquakes, higher temperature at the ocean beds may lead to higher amount of Chl-a on the sea surface. On the other hand, it has been also said that the leak of Radon gas which occurs as rocks break during earthquake preparation causes the formation of airborne ions and higher Air Temperature (AT). We have chosen to perform a statistical, long-term, and short-term approach by considering the reoccurrence intervals of past

  1. Biological Anomalies around the 2009 L’Aquila Earthquake

    PubMed Central

    Fidani, Cristiano

    2013-01-01

    Simple Summary Earthquakes have been seldom associated with reported non-seismic phenomena observed weeks before and after shocks. Non-seismic phenomena are characterized by radio disturbances and light emissions as well as degassing of vast areas near the epicenter with chemical alterations of shallow geospheres (aquifers, soils) and the troposphere. Many animals are sensitive to even the weakest changes in the environment, typically responding with behavioral and physiological changes. A specific questionnaire was developed to collect data on these changes around the time of the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake. Abstract The April 6, 2009 L’Aquila earthquake was the strongest seismic event to occur in Italy over the last thirty years with a magnitude of M = 6.3. Around the time of the seismic swarm many instruments were operating in Central Italy, even if not dedicated to biological effects associated with the stress field variations, including seismicity. Testimonies were collected using a specific questionnaire immediately after the main shock, including data on earthquake lights, gas leaks, human diseases, and irregular animal behavior. The questionnaire was made up of a sequence of arguments, based upon past historical earthquake observations and compiled over seven months after the main shock. Data on animal behavior, before, during and after the main shocks, were analyzed in space/time distributions with respect to the epicenter area, evidencing the specific responses of different animals. Several instances of strange animal behavior were observed which could causally support the hypotheses that they were induced by the physical presence of gas, electric charges and electromagnetic waves in atmosphere. The aim of this study was to order the biological observations and thereby allow future work to determine whether these observations were influenced by geophysical parameters. PMID:26479529

  2. Perspectives on earthquake hazards in the New Madrid seismic zone, Missouri

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Thenhaus, P.C.

    1990-01-01

    A sequence of three great earthquakes struck the Central United States during the winter of 1811-12 in the area of New Madrid, Missouri. They are considered to be the greatest earthquakes in the conterminous U.S. because they were felt and caused damage at far greater distances than any other earthquakes in US history. In contrast to California, where earthquakes are felt frequently, the damaging earthquakes that have occurred in the Eastern US are generally regarded as only historical phenomena. A fundamental problem in the Eastern US, therefore, is that the earthquake hazard is not generally considered today in land-use andmore » civic planning. This article offers perspectives on the earthquake hazard of the New Madrid seismic zone through discussions of the geology of the Mississippi Embayment, the historical earthquakes that have occurred there, the earthquake risk, and the tools that geoscientists have to study the region. The so-called earthquake hazard is defined by the characterization of the physical attributes of the geological structures that cause earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, their potential size, and the expected ground motions. The term earthquake risk, on the other hand, refers to aspects of the expected damage to manmade structures and to lifelines as a result of the earthquake hazard.« less

  3. Detection of co-seismic earthquake gravity field signals using GRACE-like mission simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharifi, Mohammad Ali; Shahamat, Abolfazl

    2017-05-01

    After launching the GRACE satellite mission in 2002, the earth's gravity field and its temporal variations are measured with a closer inspection. Although these variations are mainly because of the mass transfer of land water storage, they can also happen due to mass movements related to some natural phenomena including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, melting of polar ice caps and glacial isostatic adjustment. Therefore this paper shows which parameters of an earthquake are more sensitive to GRACE-Like satellite missions. For this purpose, the parameters of the Maule earthquake that occurred in recent years and Alaska earthquake that occurred in 1964 have been chosen. Then we changed their several parameters to serve our purpose. The GRACE-Like sensitivity is observed by using the simulation of the earthquakes along with gravity changes they caused, as well as using dislocation theory under a half space earth. This observation affects the various faulting parameters which include fault length, width, depth and average slip. These changes were therefore evaluated and the result shows that the GRACE satellite missions tend to be more sensitive to Width among the Length and Width, the other parameter is Dip variations than other parameters. This article can be useful to the upcoming scenario designers and seismologists in their quest to study fault parameters.

  4. Non-double-couple earthquakes. 1. Theory

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Julian, B.R.; Miller, A.D.; Foulger, G.R.

    1998-01-01

    Historically, most quantitative seismological analyses have been based on the assumption that earthquakes are caused by shear faulting, for which the equivalent force system in an isotropic medium is a pair of force couples with no net torque (a 'double couple,' or DC). Observations of increasing quality and coverage, however, now resolve departures from the DC model for many earthquakes and find some earthquakes, especially in volcanic and geothermal areas, that have strongly non-DC mechanisms. Understanding non-DC earthquakes is important both for studying the process of faulting in detail and for identifying nonshear-faulting processes that apparently occur in some earthquakes. This paper summarizes the theory of 'moment tensor' expansions of equivalent-force systems and analyzes many possible physical non-DC earthquake processes. Contrary to long-standing assumption, sources within the Earth can sometimes have net force and torque components, described by first-rank and asymmetric second-rank moment tensors, which must be included in analyses of landslides and some volcanic phenomena. Non-DC processes that lead to conventional (symmetric second-rank) moment tensors include geometrically complex shear faulting, tensile faulting, shear faulting in an anisotropic medium, shear faulting in a heterogeneous region (e.g., near an interface), and polymorphic phase transformations. Undoubtedly, many non-DC earthquake processes remain to be discovered. Progress will be facilitated by experimental studies that use wave amplitudes, amplitude ratios, and complete waveforms in addition to wave polarities and thus avoid arbitrary assumptions such as the absence of volume changes or the temporal similarity of different moment tensor components.

  5. Palaeoseismological evidence for the 1570 Ferrara earthquake, Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caputo, R.; Poli, M. E.; Minarelli, L.; Rapti, D.; Sboras, S.; Stefani, M.; Zanferrari, A.

    2016-06-01

    In May 2012, two earthquakes (Mw 6.1 and 5.9) affected the Po Plain, Italy. The strongest shock produced extensive secondary effects associated with liquefaction phenomena. Few weeks after the earthquakes, an exploratory trench was excavated across a levee of the palaeo-Reno reach, where a system of aligned ground ruptures was observed. The investigated site well preserves the geomorphic expression of a fluvial body that mainly formed in the fifteenth to sixteenth centuries as historical sources and radiometric data testify. In the trench several features pinpointed the occurrence of past liquefaction events: (i) dikes filled with overpressured injected sand and associated with vertical displacements have no correspondence with the fractures mapped at the surface; (ii) thick dikes are buried by the plowed level or even by fluvial deposits; (iii) although some of the 2012 ground fractures characterized by vertical displacement and opening occurred in correspondence of thick dikes observed in the trench, sand and water ejection did not occur; (iv) some seismites (load casts) were observed in the trench well above the 2012 water level. The results strongly suggest that shaking has locally occurred in the past producing a sufficient ground motion capable of triggering liquefaction phenomena prior to, and likely stronger than, the May 2012 earthquake. Historical seismicity documents three seismic events that might have been able to generate liquefaction in the broader investigated area. Based on the analysis of their macroseismic fields, the 17 November 1570 Ferrara earthquake is the most likely causative event of the observed palaeoliquefactions.

  6. Some comparisons between mining-induced and laboratory earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGarr, A.

    1994-01-01

    Although laboratory stick-slip friction experiments have long been regarded as analogs to natural crustal earthquakes, the potential use of laboratory results for understanding the earthquake source mechanism has not been fully exploited because of essential difficulties in relating seismographic data to measurements made in the controlled laboratory environment. Mining-induced earthquakes, however, provide a means of calibrating the seismic data in terms of laboratory results because, in contrast to natural earthquakes, the causative forces as well as the hypocentral conditions are known. A comparison of stick-slip friction events in a large granite sample with mining-induced earthquakes in South Africa and Canada indicates both similarities and differences between the two phenomena. The physics of unstable fault slip appears to be largely the same for both types of events. For example, both laboratory and mining-induced earthquakes have very low seismic efficiencies {Mathematical expression} where ??a is the apparent stress and {Mathematical expression} is the average stress acting on the fault plane to cause slip; nearly all of the energy released by faulting is consumed in overcoming friction. In more detail, the mining-induced earthquakes differ from the laboratory events in the behavior of ?? as a function of seismic moment M0. Whereas for the laboratory events ?????0.06 independent of M0, ?? depends quite strongly on M0 for each set of induced earthquakes, with 0.06 serving, apparently, as an upper bound. It seems most likely that this observed scaling difference is due to variations in slip distribution over the fault plane. In the laboratory, a stick-slip event entails homogeneous slip over a fault of fixed area. For each set of induced earthquakes, the fault area appears to be approximately fixed but the slip is inhomogeneous due presumably to barriers (zones of no slip) distributed over the fault plane; at constant {Mathematical expression}, larger

  7. Applicability of source scaling relations for crustal earthquakes to estimation of the ground motions of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irikura, Kojiro; Miyakoshi, Ken; Kamae, Katsuhiro; Yoshida, Kunikazu; Somei, Kazuhiro; Kurahashi, Susumu; Miyake, Hiroe

    2017-01-01

    A two-stage scaling relationship of the source parameters for crustal earthquakes in Japan has previously been constructed, in which source parameters obtained from the results of waveform inversion of strong motion data are combined with parameters estimated based on geological and geomorphological surveys. A three-stage scaling relationship was subsequently developed to extend scaling to crustal earthquakes with magnitudes greater than M w 7.4. The effectiveness of these scaling relationships was then examined based on the results of waveform inversion of 18 recent crustal earthquakes ( M w 5.4-6.9) that occurred in Japan since the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake. The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, with M w 7.0, was one of the largest earthquakes to occur since dense and accurate strong motion observation networks, such as K-NET and KiK-net, were deployed after the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake. We examined the applicability of the scaling relationships of the source parameters of crustal earthquakes in Japan to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake. The rupture area and asperity area were determined based on slip distributions obtained from waveform inversion of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake observations. We found that the relationship between the rupture area and the seismic moment for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake follows the second-stage scaling within one standard deviation ( σ = 0.14). The ratio of the asperity area to the rupture area for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake is nearly the same as ratios previously obtained for crustal earthquakes. Furthermore, we simulated the ground motions of this earthquake using a characterized source model consisting of strong motion generation areas (SMGAs) based on the empirical Green's function (EGF) method. The locations and areas of the SMGAs were determined through comparison between the synthetic ground motions and observed motions. The sizes of the SMGAs were nearly coincident with the asperities with large slip. The synthetic

  8. The 1868 Hayward fault, California, earthquake: Implications for earthquake scaling relations on partially creeping faults

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, Susan E.; Martin, Stacey

    2015-01-01

    The 21 October 1868 Hayward, California, earthquake is among the best-characterized historical earthquakes in California. In contrast to many other moderate-to-large historical events, the causative fault is clearly established. Published magnitude estimates have been fairly consistent, ranging from 6.8 to 7.2, with 95% confidence limits including values as low as 6.5. The magnitude is of particular importance for assessment of seismic hazard associated with the Hayward fault and, more generally, to develop appropriate magnitude–rupture length scaling relations for partially creeping faults. The recent reevaluation of archival accounts by Boatwright and Bundock (2008), together with the growing volume of well-calibrated intensity data from the U.S. Geological Survey “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) system, provide an opportunity to revisit and refine the magnitude estimate. In this study, we estimate the magnitude using two different methods that use DYFI data as calibration. Both approaches yield preferred magnitude estimates of 6.3–6.6, assuming an average stress drop. A consideration of data limitations associated with settlement patterns increases the range to 6.3–6.7, with a preferred estimate of 6.5. Although magnitude estimates for historical earthquakes are inevitably uncertain, we conclude that, at a minimum, a lower-magnitude estimate represents a credible alternative interpretation of available data. We further discuss implications of our results for probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment from partially creeping faults.

  9. GPS detection of ionospheric perturbation before the 13 February 2001, El Salvador earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plotkin, V. V.

    A large earthquake of M6.6 occurred on 13 February 2001 at 14:22:05 UT in El Salvador. We detected ionospheric perturbation before this earthquake using GPS data received from CORS network. Systematic decreases of ionospheric total electron content during two days before the earthquake onset were observed at set of stations near the earthquake location and probably in region of about 1000 km from epicenter. This result is consistent with that of investigators, which studied these phenomena with several observational techniques. However it is possible, that such TEC changes are simultaneously accompanied by changes due to solar wind parameters and Kp -index.

  10. Data mining of atmospheric parameters associated with coastal earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cervone, Guido

    Earthquakes are natural hazards that pose a serious threat to society and the environment. A single earthquake can claim thousands of lives, cause damages for billions of dollars, destroy natural landmarks and render large territories uninhabitable. Studying earthquakes and the processes that govern their occurrence, is of fundamental importance to protect lives, properties and the environment. Recent studies have shown that anomalous changes in land, ocean and atmospheric parameters occur prior to earthquakes. The present dissertation introduces an innovative methodology and its implementation to identify anomalous changes in atmospheric parameters associated with large coastal earthquakes. Possible geophysical mechanisms are discussed in view of the close interaction between the lithosphere, the hydrosphere and the atmosphere. The proposed methodology is a multi strategy data mining approach which combines wavelet transformations, evolutionary algorithms, and statistical analysis of atmospheric data to analyze possible precursory signals. One dimensional wavelet transformations and statistical tests are employed to identify significant singularities in the data, which may correspond to anomalous peaks due to the earthquake preparatory processes. Evolutionary algorithms and other localized search strategies are used to analyze the spatial and temporal continuity of the anomalies detected over a large area (about 2000 km2), to discriminate signals that are most likely associated with earthquakes from those due to other, mostly atmospheric, phenomena. Only statistically significant singularities occurring within a very short time of each other, and which tract a rigorous geometrical path related to the geological properties of the epicentral area, are considered to be associated with a seismic event. A program called CQuake was developed to implement and validate the proposed methodology. CQuake is a fully automated, real time semi-operational system, developed to

  11. Attempt at correlating Italian long lineaments from LANDSAT-1 satellite images with some geological phenomena. Possible use in geothermal energy research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barbier, E.; Fanelli, M.

    1975-01-01

    By utilizing the images from the LANDSAT-1, in the spectral band 0.8-1.1 microns (near infrared), a photomosaic was obtained of Italian territory. From this mosaic the field of long lineaments was drawn, corresponding to fractures of the earth crust more than 100 km long. The relationship between lineaments, hot springs, volcanic areas, and earthquake epicenters is verified. There is a clear connection between long lineaments and hot springs: 78% of the springs are located on one or more lineaments, and the existence of hot lineaments was observed. A slightly weaker, but still significant, connection exists between the Pliocene-Quaternary volcanic areas and long lineaments. The relationship between earthquakes and long lineaments can only be verified in some cases. The lineaments which can be related to earthquakes have little or no connection with the other phenomena.

  12. Initiation process of earthquakes and its implications for seismic hazard reduction strategy.

    PubMed Central

    Kanamori, H

    1996-01-01

    For the average citizen and the public, "earthquake prediction" means "short-term prediction," a prediction of a specific earthquake on a relatively short time scale. Such prediction must specify the time, place, and magnitude of the earthquake in question with sufficiently high reliability. For this type of prediction, one must rely on some short-term precursors. Examinations of strain changes just before large earthquakes suggest that consistent detection of such precursory strain changes cannot be expected. Other precursory phenomena such as foreshocks and nonseismological anomalies do not occur consistently either. Thus, reliable short-term prediction would be very difficult. Although short-term predictions with large uncertainties could be useful for some areas if their social and economic environments can tolerate false alarms, such predictions would be impractical for most modern industrialized cities. A strategy for effective seismic hazard reduction is to take full advantage of the recent technical advancements in seismology, computers, and communication. In highly industrialized communities, rapid earthquake information is critically important for emergency services agencies, utilities, communications, financial companies, and media to make quick reports and damage estimates and to determine where emergency response is most needed. Long-term forecast, or prognosis, of earthquakes is important for development of realistic building codes, retrofitting existing structures, and land-use planning, but the distinction between short-term and long-term predictions needs to be clearly communicated to the public to avoid misunderstanding. Images Fig. 8 PMID:11607657

  13. Initiation process of earthquakes and its implications for seismic hazard reduction strategy.

    PubMed

    Kanamori, H

    1996-04-30

    For the average citizen and the public, "earthquake prediction" means "short-term prediction," a prediction of a specific earthquake on a relatively short time scale. Such prediction must specify the time, place, and magnitude of the earthquake in question with sufficiently high reliability. For this type of prediction, one must rely on some short-term precursors. Examinations of strain changes just before large earthquakes suggest that consistent detection of such precursory strain changes cannot be expected. Other precursory phenomena such as foreshocks and nonseismological anomalies do not occur consistently either. Thus, reliable short-term prediction would be very difficult. Although short-term predictions with large uncertainties could be useful for some areas if their social and economic environments can tolerate false alarms, such predictions would be impractical for most modern industrialized cities. A strategy for effective seismic hazard reduction is to take full advantage of the recent technical advancements in seismology, computers, and communication. In highly industrialized communities, rapid earthquake information is critically important for emergency services agencies, utilities, communications, financial companies, and media to make quick reports and damage estimates and to determine where emergency response is most needed. Long-term forecast, or prognosis, of earthquakes is important for development of realistic building codes, retrofitting existing structures, and land-use planning, but the distinction between short-term and long-term predictions needs to be clearly communicated to the public to avoid misunderstanding.

  14. Observing Triggered Earthquakes Across Iran with Calibrated Earthquake Locations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karasozen, E.; Bergman, E.; Ghods, A.; Nissen, E.

    2016-12-01

    We investigate earthquake triggering phenomena in Iran by analyzing patterns of aftershock activity around mapped surface ruptures. Iran has an intense level of seismicity (> 40,000 events listed in the ISC Bulletin since 1960) due to it accommodating a significant portion of the continental collision between Arabia and Eurasia. There are nearly thirty mapped surface ruptures associated with earthquakes of M 6-7.5, mostly in eastern and northwestern Iran, offering a rich potential to study the kinematics of earthquake nucleation, rupture propagation, and subsequent triggering. However, catalog earthquake locations are subject to up to 50 km of location bias from the combination of unknown Earth structure and unbalanced station coverage, making it challenging to assess both the rupture directivity of larger events and the spatial patterns of their aftershocks. To overcome this limitation, we developed a new two-tiered multiple-event relocation approach to obtain hypocentral parameters that are minimally biased and have realistic uncertainties. In the first stage, locations of small clusters of well-recorded earthquakes at local spatial scales (100s of events across 100 km length scales) are calibrated either by using near-source arrival times or independent location constraints (e.g. local aftershock studies, InSAR solutions), using an implementation of the Hypocentroidal Decomposition relocation technique called MLOC. Epicentral uncertainties are typically less than 5 km. Then, these events are used as prior constraints in the code BayesLoc, a Bayesian relocation technique that can handle larger datasets, to yield region-wide calibrated hypocenters (1000s of events over 1000 km length scales). With locations and errors both calibrated, the pattern of aftershock activity can reveal the type of the earthquake triggering: dynamic stress changes promote an increase in the seismicity rate in the direction of unilateral propagation, whereas static stress changes should

  15. New ideas about the physics of earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, John B.; Klein, William

    1995-07-01

    It may be no exaggeration to claim that this most recent quaddrenium has seen more controversy and thus more progress in understanding the physics of earthquakes than any in recent memory. The most interesting development has clearly been the emergence of a large community of condensed matter physicists around the world who have begun working on the problem of earthquake physics. These scientists bring to the study of earthquakes an entirely new viewpoint, grounded in the physics of nucleation and critical phenomena in thermal, magnetic, and other systems. Moreover, a surprising technology transfer from geophysics to other fields has been made possible by the realization that models originally proposed to explain self-organization in earthquakes can also be used to explain similar processes in problems as disparate as brain dynamics in neurobiology (Hopfield, 1994), and charge density waves in solids (Brown and Gruner, 1994). An entirely new sub-discipline is emerging that is focused around the development and analysis of large scale numerical simulations of the dynamics of faults. At the same time, intriguing new laboratory and field data, together with insightful physical reasoning, has led to significant advances in our understanding of earthquake source physics. As a consequence, we can anticipate substantial improvement in our ability to understand the nature of earthquake occurrence. Moreover, while much research in the area of earthquake physics is fundamental in character, the results have many potential applications (Cornell et al., 1993) in the areas of earthquake risk and hazard analysis, and seismic zonation.

  16. Design and evaluation guidelines for Department of Energy facilities subjected to natural phenomena hazards

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kennedy, R.P.; Short, S.A.; McDonald, J.R.

    1990-06-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) and the DOE Natural Phenomena Hazards Panel have developed uniform design and evaluation guidelines for protection against natural phenomena hazards at DOE sites throughout the United States. The goal of the guidelines is to assure that DOE facilities can withstand the effects of natural phenomena such as earthquakes, extreme winds, tornadoes, and flooding. The guidelines apply to both new facilities (design) and existing facilities (evaluation, modification, and upgrading). The intended audience is primarily the civil/structural or mechanical engineers conducting the design or evaluation of DOE facilities. The likelihood of occurrence of natural phenomena hazards atmore » each DOE site has been evaluated by the DOE Natural Phenomena Hazard Program. Probabilistic hazard models are available for earthquake, extreme wind/tornado, and flood. Alternatively, site organizations are encouraged to develop site-specific hazard models utilizing the most recent information and techniques available. In this document, performance goals and natural hazard levels are expressed in probabilistic terms, and design and evaluation procedures are presented in deterministic terms. Design/evaluation procedures conform closely to common standard practices so that the procedures will be easily understood by most engineers. Performance goals are expressed in terms of structure or equipment damage to the extent that: (1) the facility cannot function; (2) the facility would need to be replaced; or (3) personnel are endangered. 82 refs., 12 figs., 18 tabs.« less

  17. On the reported ionospheric precursor of the Hector Mine, California earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, J.N.; Love, J.J.; Komjathy, A.; Verkhoglyadova, O.P.; Butala, M.; Rivera, N.

    2012-01-01

    Using Global Positioning System (GPS) data from sites near the 16 Oct. 1999 Hector Mine, California earthquake, Pulinets et al. (2007) identified anomalous changes in the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) starting one week prior to the earthquake. Pulinets (2007) suggested that precursory phenomena of this type could be useful for predicting earthquakes. On the other hand, and in a separate analysis, Afraimovich et al. (2004) concluded that TEC variations near the epicenter were controlled by solar and geomagnetic activity that were unrelated to the earthquake. In an investigation of these very different results, we examine TEC time series of long duration from GPS stations near and far from the epicenter of the Hector Mine earthquake, and long before and long after the earthquake. While we can reproduce the essential time series results of Pulinets et al., we find that the signal they identified as being anomalous is not actually anomalous. Instead, it is just part of normal global-scale TEC variation. We conclude that the TEC anomaly reported by Pulinets et al. is unrelated to the Hector Mine earthquake.

  18. Sensory phenomena related to tics, obsessive-compulsive symptoms, and global functioning in Tourette syndrome.

    PubMed

    Kano, Yukiko; Matsuda, Natsumi; Nonaka, Maiko; Fujio, Miyuki; Kuwabara, Hitoshi; Kono, Toshiaki

    2015-10-01

    Sensory phenomena, including premonitory urges, are experienced by patients with Tourette syndrome (TS) and obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). The goal of the present study was to investigate such phenomena related to tics, obsessive-compulsive symptoms (OCS), and global functioning in Japanese patients with TS. Forty-one patients with TS were assessed using the University of São Paulo Sensory Phenomena Scale (USP-SPS), the Premonitory Urge for Tics Scale (PUTS), the Yale Global Tic Severity Scale (YGTSS), the Dimensional Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale (DY-BOCS), and the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) Scale. USP-SPS and PUTS total scores were significantly correlated with YGTSS total and vocal tics scores. Additionally, both sensory phenomena severity scores were significantly correlated with DY-BOCS total OCS scores. Of the six dimensional OCS scores, the USP-SPS scores were significantly correlated with measures of aggression and sexual/religious dimensions. Finally, the PUTS total scores were significantly and negatively correlated with GAF scores. By assessing premonitory urges and broader sensory phenomena, and by viewing OCS from a dimensional approach, this study provides significant insight into sensory phenomena related to tics, OCS, and global functioning in patients with TS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. The relationship between earthquake exposure and posttraumatic stress disorder in 2013 Lushan earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yan; Lu, Yi

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this study is to explore the relationship between earthquake exposure and the incidence of PTSD. A stratification random sample survey was conducted to collect data in the Longmenshan thrust fault after Lushan earthquake three years. We used the Children's Revised Impact of Event Scale (CRIES-13) and the Earthquake Experience Scale. Subjects in this study included 3944 school student survivors in local eleven schools. The prevalence of probable PTSD is relatively higher, when the people was trapped in the earthquake, was injured in the earthquake or have relatives who died in the earthquake. It concluded that researchers need to pay more attention to the children and adolescents. The government should pay more attention to these people and provide more economic support.

  20. Earthquakes, September-October 1986

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Person, W.J.

    1987-01-01

    There was one great earthquake (8.0 and above) during this reporting period in the South Pacific in the Kermadec Islands. There were no major earthquakes (7.0-7.9) but earthquake-related deaths were reported in Greece and in El Salvador. There were no destrcutive earthquakes in the United States.

  1. Radon anomaly in soil gas as an earthquake precursor.

    PubMed

    Miklavcić, I; Radolić, V; Vuković, B; Poje, M; Varga, M; Stanić, D; Planinić, J

    2008-10-01

    The mechanical processes of earthquake preparation are always accompanied by deformations; afterwards, the complex short- or long-term precursory phenomena can appear. Anomalies of radon concentrations in soil gas are registered a few weeks or months before many earthquakes. Radon concentrations in soil gas were continuously measured by the LR-115 nuclear track detectors at site A (Osijek) during a 4-year period, as well as by the Barasol semiconductor detector at site B (Kasina) during 2 years. We investigated the influence of the meteorological parameters on the temporal radon variations, and we determined the equation of the multiple regression that enabled the reduction (deconvolution) of the radon variation caused by the barometric pressure, rainfall and temperature. The pre-earthquake radon anomalies at site A indicated 46% of the seismic events, on criterion M>or=3, R<200 km, and 21% at site B. Empirical equations between earthquake magnitude, epicenter distance and precursor time enabled estimation or prediction of an earthquake that will rise at the epicenter distance R from the monitoring site in expecting precursor time T.

  2. Technical basis, supporting information, and strategy for development and implementation of DOE policy for natural phenomena hazards

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Murray, R.C.

    1991-09-01

    Policy for addressing natural phenomenon comprises a hierarchy of interrelated documents. The top level of policy is contained in the code of Federal Regulations which establishes the framework and intent to ensure overall safety of DOE facilities when subjected to the effects of natural phenomena. The natural phenomena to be considered include earthquakes and tsunami, winds, hurricanes and tornadoes, floods, volcano effects and seiches. Natural phenomena criteria have been established for design of new facilities; evaluation of existing facilities; additions, modifications, and upgrades to existing facilities; and evaluation criteria for new or existing sites. Steps needed to implement these fourmore » general criteria are described. The intent of these criteria is to identify WHAT needs to be done to ensure adequate protection from natural phenomena. The commentary provides discussion of WHY this is needed for DOE facilities within the complex. Implementing procedures identifying HOW to carry out these criteria are next identified. Finally, short and long term tasks needed to identify the implementing procedure are tabulated. There is an overall need for consistency throughout the DOE complex related to natural phenomena including consistent terminology, policy, and implementation. 1 fig, 6 tabs.« less

  3. Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dieterich, J.H.; Kilgore, B.

    1996-01-01

    The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance D(c), apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time- dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of D, apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of D(c) is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

  4. Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.

    PubMed Central

    Dieterich, J H; Kilgore, B

    1996-01-01

    The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks. Images Fig. 3 PMID:11607666

  5. Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.

    PubMed

    Dieterich, J H; Kilgore, B

    1996-04-30

    The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

  6. The 2008 earthquakes in the Bavarian Molasse Basin - possible relation to deep geothermics?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kraft, T.; Wassermann, J.; Deichmann, N.; Stange, S.

    2009-04-01

    We discuss several microearthquakes of magnitude up to Ml=2.3 that occurred in the Bavarian Molasse Basin (ByM), south of Munich, Germany, in February and July 2008. The strongest event was felt by local residents. The Bavarian Earthquake catalog, which dates back to the year 1000, does list a small number of isolated earthquakes in the western part of the ByM as well as a cluster of mining induced earthquakes (Peißenberg 1962-1970, I0(MSK)=5.5). The eastern part of the ByM, including the wider surrounding of Munich, was so far considered aseismic. Due to the spatio-temporal clustering of the microearthquakes in February and July 2008 the University of Munich (LMU) and the Swiss Seismologcical Service installed a temporal network of seismological stations in the south of Munich to investigate the newly arising seismicity. First analysis of the recorded data indicate shallow source depths (~5km) for the July events. This result is supported by the fact that one of these very small earthquakes was felt by local residents. The earthquakes hypocenters are located closely to a number of deep geothermal wells of 3-4.5km depth being either in production or running productivity tests in late 2007 and early 2008. Therefore, the 2008 seimicity might represent a case of induced seimicity related to the injection or withdrawal of water from the hydrothermal aquifer. Due to the lack of high quality recordings of a denser seismic monitoring network in the source area it is not possible to resolve details of the processes behind the 2008 seismicity. Therefore, a definite answer to the question if the earthquakes are related the deep geothermal projects or not can not be given at present. However, a number of recent well-studied cases have proved that earthquakes can also happen in depths much shallower than 5km, and that small changes of the hydrological conditions at depth are sufficient to trigger seismicity. Therefore, a detailed understanding of the causative processes

  7. Hydro-Mechanical Modelling of Slow Slip Phenomena at the Subduction Interface.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrini, C.; Gerya, T.; Madonna, C.; van Dinther, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Subduction zones experience a spectrum of slip phenomena, ranging from large devastating megathrust earthquakes to aseismic slow slip events. Slow slip events, lasting hours to years and being perceptible only by instruments, are believed to have the capability to induce large earthquakes. It is also repeatedly proposed that such slow events are controlled by fluid-rock interactions along the subduction interface, thus calling for development of fully coupled seismo-hydro-mechanical modeling approaches to identify their physics and controlling parameters. We present a newly developed finite difference visco-elasto-plastic numerical code with marker-in-cell technique, which fully couples mechanical deformation and fluid flow. We use this to investigate how the presence of fluids in the pore space of a (de)compacting rock matrix affects elastic stress accumulation and release along a fluid-bearing subduction interface. The model simulates the spontaneous occurrence of quasi-periodic slow slip phenomena along self-consistently forming highly localized shearbands, which accommodate shear displacement between two plates. The produced elastic rebound events show a slip velocity on the order of cm/yr, which is in good agreement with measured data. The governing gradual strength decrease along the slowly propagating shear bands is related to a drop in total pressure caused by shear localization at nearly constant (slightly decreasing) fluid pressure. Gradual reduction of the difference between the total and fluid pressure decreases brittle/plastic strength of fluid-bearing rocks along the shear bands, thus providing a dynamic feedback mechanism for the accumulated elastic stress release at the subduction interface.

  8. Fractal dynamics of earthquakes

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bak, P.; Chen, K.

    1995-05-01

    Many objects in nature, from mountain landscapes to electrical breakdown and turbulence, have a self-similar fractal spatial structure. It seems obvious that to understand the origin of self-similar structures, one must understand the nature of the dynamical processes that created them: temporal and spatial properties must necessarily be completely interwoven. This is particularly true for earthquakes, which have a variety of fractal aspects. The distribution of energy released during earthquakes is given by the Gutenberg-Richter power law. The distribution of epicenters appears to be fractal with dimension D {approx} 1--1.3. The number of after shocks decay as a function ofmore » time according to the Omori power law. There have been several attempts to explain the Gutenberg-Richter law by starting from a fractal distribution of faults or stresses. But this is a hen-and-egg approach: to explain the Gutenberg-Richter law, one assumes the existence of another power-law--the fractal distribution. The authors present results of a simple stick slip model of earthquakes, which evolves to a self-organized critical state. Emphasis is on demonstrating that empirical power laws for earthquakes indicate that the Earth`s crust is at the critical state, with no typical time, space, or energy scale. Of course the model is tremendously oversimplified; however in analogy with equilibrium phenomena they do not expect criticality to depend on details of the model (universality).« less

  9. Earthquake induced landslide hazard field observatory in the Avcilar peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bigarre, Pascal; Coccia, Stella; Theoleyre, Fiona; Ergintav, Semih; Özel, Oguz; Yalçinkaya, Esref; Lenti, Luca; Martino, Salvatore; Gamba, Paolo; Zucca, Francesco; Moro, Marco

    2015-04-01

    Earthquake-triggered landslides have an increasing disastrous impact in seismic regions due to the fast growing urbanization and infrastructures. Just considering disasters from the last fifteen years, among which the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, these events generated tens of thousands of coseismic landslides. Those resulted in amazing death toll and considerable damages, affecting the regional landscape including its hydrological main features. Despite a strong impetus in research during past decades, knowledge on those geohazards is still fragmentary, while databases of high quality observational data are lacking. These phenomena call for further collaborative researches aiming eventually to enhance preparedness and crisis management. The MARSITE project gathers research groups in a comprehensive monitoring activity developed in the Sea of Marmara Region, one of the most densely populated parts of Europe and rated at high seismic risk level since the 1999 Izmit and Duzce devastating earthquakes. Besides the seismic threat, landslides in Turkey and in this region constitute an important source of loss. The 6th Work Package of MARSITE project gathers 9 research groups to study earthquake-induced landslides focusing on two sub-regional areas of high interest among which the Cekmece-Avcilar peninsula, located westwards of Istanbul, as a highly urbanized concentrated landslide prone area, showing high susceptibility to both rainfalls while affected by very significant seismic site effects. A multidisciplinary research program based on pre-existing studies has been designed with objectives and tasks linked to constrain and tackle progressively some challenging issues related to data integration, modeling, monitoring and mapping technologies. Since the start of the project, progress has been marked on several important points as follows. The photogeological interpretation and analysis of ENVISAT-ERS DIn

  10. Characteristics of Gyeongju earthquake, moment magnitude 5.5 and relative relocations of aftershocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cho, ChangSoo; Son, Minkyung

    2017-04-01

    There is low seismicity in the korea peninsula. According historical record in the historic book, There were several strong earthquake in the korea peninsula. Especially in Gyeongju of capital city of the Silla dynasty, few strong earthquakes caused the fatalities of several hundreds people 1,300 years ago and damaged the houses and make the wall of castles collapsed. Moderate strong earthquake of moment magnitude 5.5 hit the city in September 12, 2016. Over 1000 aftershocks were detected. The numbers of occurrences of aftershock over time follows omori's law well. The distribution of relative locations of 561 events using clustering aftershocks by cross-correlation between P and S waveform of the events showed the strike NNE 25 30 o and dip 68 74o of fault plane to cause the earthquake matched with the fault plane solution of moment tensor inversion well. The depth of range of the events is from 11km to 16km. The width of distribution of event locations is about 5km length. The direction of maximum horizontal stress by inversion of stress for the moment solutions of main event and large aftershocks is similar to the known maximum horizontal stress direction of the korea peninsula. The relation curves between moment magnitude and local magnitude of aftershocks shows that the moment magnitude increases slightly more for events of size less than 2.0

  11. Earthquakes and related catastrophic events, Island of Hawaii, November 29, 1975; a preliminary report

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tilling, Robert I.; Koyanagi, R.Y.; Lipman, P.W.; Lockwood, J.P.; Moore, J.G.; Swanson, D.A.

    1976-01-01

    The largest earthquake in over a century--magnitude 7.2 on the Richter Scale--struck Hawaii the morning of November 29, 1975, at 0448. It was centered about 5 km beneath the Kalapana area on the southeastern coast of the island at 19? 20.1 ' N., long 155? 01.4 ' W.). The earthquake was preceded by numerous foreshocks, the largest of which was a 5.7-magnitude jolt at 0336 the same morning, and was accompanied, or closely followed, by a tsunami seismic sea wave), massive ground movements, hundreds of aftershocks, and a volcanic eruption. The tsunami reached a height of 12.2-14.6 m above sea level on the southeastern coast about 25 km west of the earthquake center, elsewhere generally 8 m or less. The south flank of Kilauea Volcano, which forms the southeastern part of the island, was deformed by dislocations along old and new faults along a 25-km long zone. Downward and seaward fault displacements resulted in widespread subsidence, locally as much as 3.5 m, leaving coconut palms standing in the sea and nearly submerging a small, near-shore island. A brief, small-volume volcanic eruption, triggered by the earthquake and associated ground movements occurred at Kilauea's summit about three-quarters of an hour later. The earthquake, together with the tsunami it generated, locally caused severe property damage in the southeastern part of the island; the tsunami also caused two deaths. Damage from the earthquake and related catastrophic events is estimated by the Hawaii Civil Defense Agency at about $4.1 million. The 1975 Kalapana earthquake and accompanying events represent the latest events in a recurring pattern of behavior for Kilauea. A large earthquake of about the same magnitude, tsunami, subsidence, and eruption occurred at Kilauea in 1868, and a less powerful earthquake and similar related processes are believed to have occurred in 1823. Indeed, the geologic evidence suggests that such events have been repeated many times in Kilauea's past and will continue. The

  12. Earthquakes and aseismic creep associated with growing fault-related folds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burke, C. C.; Johnson, K. M.

    2017-12-01

    Blind thrust faults overlain by growing anticlinal folds pose a seismic risk to many urban centers in the world. A large body of research has focused on using fold and growth strata geometry to infer the rate of slip on the causative fault and the distribution of off-fault deformation. However, because we have had few recorded large earthquakes on blind faults underlying folds, it remains unclear how much of the folding occurs during large earthquakes or during the interseismic period accommodated by aseismic creep. Numerous kinematic and mechanical models as well as field observations demonstrate that flexural slip between sedimentary layering is an important mechanism of fault-related folding. In this study, we run boundary element models of flexural-slip fault-related folding to examine the extent to which energy is released seismically or aseismically throughout the evolution of the fold and fault. We assume a fault imbedded in viscoelastic mechanical layering under frictional contact. We assign depth-dependent frictional properties and adopt a rate-state friction formulation to simulate slip over time. We find that in many cases, a large percentage (greater than 50%) of fold growth is accomplished by aseismic creep at bedding and fault contacts. The largest earthquakes tend to occur on the fault, but a significant portion of the seismicity is distributed across bedding contacts through the fold. We are currently working to quantify these results using a large number of simulations with various fold and fault geometries. Result outputs include location, duration, and magnitude of events. As more simulations are completed, these results from different fold and fault geometries will provide insight into how much folding occurs from these slip events. Generalizations from these simulations can be compared with observations of active fault-related folds and used in the future to inform seismic hazard studies.

  13. Anomalous phenomena in Schumann resonance band observed in China before the 2011 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Hongjuan; Zhou, Zhiquan; Qiao, Xiaolin; Yu, Haiyan

    2013-12-01

    anomalous phenomena in the Schumann resonance (SR) band, possibly associated with the Tohoku-Oki earthquake (EQ), are studied based on the ELF observations at two stations in China. The anomaly appeared on 8 March, 3 days prior to the main shock, and was characterized by an increase in the intensity at frequencies from the first mode to the fourth mode in both magnetic field components, different from the observations in Japan before large EQs in Taiwan. The abnormal behaviors of the north-south and east-west magnetic field components primarily appeared at 0000-0900 UT and 0200-0900 UT on 8 March, respectively. The finite difference time domain numerical method is applied to model the impact of seismic process on the ELF radio propagation. A partially uniform knee model of the vertical conductivity profile suggested by V. C. Mushtak is used to model the day-night asymmetric Earth-ionosphere cavity, and a locally EQ-induced disturbance model of the atmospheric conductivity is introduced. The atmospheric conductivity is assumed to increase around the epicenter according to the localized enhancement of total electron content in the ionosphere. It is concluded that the SR anomalous phenomena before the Tohoku-Oki EQ have much to do with the excited sources located at South America and Asia and also with the localized distribution of the disturbed conductivity. This work is a further confirmation of the relationship of SR anomalies with large EQs and has further concluded that the distortions in the SR band before large EQs may be caused by the irregularities located over the shock epicenter in the Earth-ionosphere cavity by numerical method.

  14. On the reported ionospheric precursor of the 1999 Hector Mine, California earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, Jeremy N.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Komjathy, Attila; Verkhoglyadova, Olga P.; Butala, Mark; Rivera, Nicholas

    2012-01-01

    Using Global Positioning System (GPS) data from sites near the 16 Oct. 1999 Hector Mine, California earthquake, Pulinets et al. (2007) identified anomalous changes in the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) starting one week prior to the earthquake. Pulinets (2007) suggested that precursory phenomena of this type could be useful for predicting earthquakes. On the other hand, and in a separate analysis, Afraimovich et al. (2004) concluded that TEC variations near the epicenter were controlled by solar and geomagnetic activity that were unrelated to the earthquake. In an investigation of these very different results, we examine TEC time series of long duration from GPS stations near and far from the epicenter of the Hector Mine earthquake, and long before and long after the earthquake. While we can reproduce the essential time series results of Pulinets et al., we find that the signal they identify as anomalous is not actually anomalous. Instead, it is just part of normal global-scale TEC variation. We conclude that the TEC anomaly reported by Pulinets et al. is unrelated to the Hector Mine earthquake.

  15. Aseismic Slip Throughout the Earthquake Cycle in Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voss, N. K.; Liu, Z.; Hobbs, T. E.; Schwartz, S. Y.; Malservisi, R.; Dixon, T. H.; Protti, M.

    2017-12-01

    Geodetically resolved Slow Slip Events (SSE), a large M7.6 earthquake, and afterslip have all been documented in the last 16 years of observation in Nicoya, Costa Rica. We present a synthesis of the observations of observed aseismic slip behavior. SSEs in Nicoya are observed both during the late inter-seismic period and the post-seismic period, despite ongoing post-seismic phenomena. While recurrence rates appear unchanged by position within earthquake cycle, SSE behavior does vary before and after the event. We discuss how afterslip may be responsible for this change in behavior. We also present observations of a pre-earthquake transient observed starting 6 months prior to the M7.6 megathrust earthquake. This earthquake takes place within an asperity that is surrounded by regions which previously underwent slow slip behavior. We compare how this pre-earthquake transient, modeled as aseismic slip, differs from observations of typical Nicoya SSEs. Finally, we attempt to explain the segmentation of behaviors in Costa Rica with a simple frictional model.

  16. In search of earthquake-related hydrologic and chemical changes along Hayward Fault

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    King, C.-Y.; Basler, D.; Presser, T.S.; Evans, William C.; White, L.D.; Minissale, A.

    1994-01-01

    Flow and chemical measurements have been made about once a month, and more frequently when required, since 1976 at two springs in Alum Rock Park in eastern San Jose, California, and since 1980 at two shallow wells in eastern Oakland in search of earthquake-related changes. All sites are on or near the Hayward Fault and are about 55 km apart. Temperature, electric conductivity, and water level or flow rate were measured in situ with portable instruments. Water samples were collected for later chemical and isotopic analyses in the laboratory. The measured flow rate at one of the springs showed a long-term decrease of about 40% since 1987, when a multi-year drought began in California. It also showed several increases that lasted a few days to a few months with amplitudes of 2.4 to 8.6 times the standard deviations above the background rate. Five of these increases were recorded shortly after nearby earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or larger, and may have resulted from unclogging of the flow path and increase of permeability caused by strong seismic shaking. Two other flow increases were possibly induced by exceptionally heavy rainfalls. The water in both wells showed seasonal temperature and chemical variations, largely in response to rainfall. In 1980 the water also showed some clear chemical changes unrelated to rainfall that lasted a few months; these changes were followed by a magnitude 4 earthquake 37 km away. The chemical composition at one of the wells and at the springs also showed some longer-term variations that were not correlated with rainfall but possibly correlated with the five earthquakes mentioned above. These correlations suggest a common tectonic origin for the earthquakes and the anomalies. The last variation at the affected well occurred abruptly in 1989, shortly before a magnitude 5.0 earthquake 54 km away. ?? 1993.

  17. Natural phenomena hazards design and evaluation criteria for Department of Energy Facilities

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    NONE

    1996-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) has issued an Order 420.1 which establishes policy for its facilities in the event of natural phenomena hazards (NPH) along with associated NPH mitigation requirements. This DOE Standard gives design and evaluation criteria for NPH effects as guidance for implementing the NPH mitigation requirements of DOE Order 420.1 and the associated implementation Guides. These are intended to be consistent design and evaluation criteria for protection against natural phenomena hazards at DOE sites throughout the United States. The goal of these criteria is to assure that DOE facilities can withstand the effects of natural phenomena suchmore » as earthquakes, extreme winds, tornadoes, and flooding. These criteria apply to the design of new facilities and the evaluation of existing facilities. They may also be used for modification and upgrading of existing facilities as appropriate. The design and evaluation criteria presented herein control the level of conservatism introduced in the design/evaluation process such that earthquake, wind, and flood hazards are treated on a consistent basis. These criteria also employ a graded approach to ensure that the level of conservatism and rigor in design/evaluation is appropriate for facility characteristics such as importance, hazards to people on and off site, and threat to the environment. For each natural phenomena hazard covered, these criteria consist of the following: Performance Categories and target performance goals as specified in the DOE Order 420.1 NPH Implementation Guide, and DOE-STD-1 021; specified probability levels from which natural phenomena hazard loading on structures, equipment, and systems is developed; and design and evaluation procedures to evaluate response to NPH loads and criteria to assess whether or not computed response is permissible.« less

  18. Risk in nuclear power plants due to natural hazard phenomena

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Lu, S.C.

    1995-12-01

    For the safety of nuclear power plants, it is important to identify potential areas of vulnerabilities to internal as well as external events to which nuclear power plants are exposed. This paper summarizes the risk in nuclear power plants due to natural hazard phenomena such as earthquakes, winds and tornadoes, floods, etc. The reported results are based on a limited number of probabilistic risk assessments (PRAS) performed for a few of the operating nuclear power plants within the United States. The summary includes an importance ranking of various natural hazard phenomena based on their contribution to the plant risk alongmore » with insights observed from the PRA studies.« less

  19. An interdisciplinary approach for earthquake modelling and forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, P.; Zhuang, J.; Hattori, K.; Ogata, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake is one of the most serious disasters, which may cause heavy casualties and economic losses. Especially in the past two decades, huge/mega earthquakes have hit many countries. Effective earthquake forecasting (including time, location, and magnitude) becomes extremely important and urgent. To date, various heuristically derived algorithms have been developed for forecasting earthquakes. Generally, they can be classified into two types: catalog-based approaches and non-catalog-based approaches. Thanks to the rapid development of statistical seismology in the past 30 years, now we are able to evaluate the performances of these earthquake forecast approaches quantitatively. Although a certain amount of precursory information is available in both earthquake catalogs and non-catalog observations, the earthquake forecast is still far from satisfactory. In most case, the precursory phenomena were studied individually. An earthquake model that combines self-exciting and mutually exciting elements was developed by Ogata and Utsu from the Hawkes process. The core idea of this combined model is that the status of the event at present is controlled by the event itself (self-exciting) and all the external factors (mutually exciting) in the past. In essence, the conditional intensity function is a time-varying Poisson process with rate λ(t), which is composed of the background rate, the self-exciting term (the information from past seismic events), and the external excitation term (the information from past non-seismic observations). This model shows us a way to integrate the catalog-based forecast and non-catalog-based forecast. Against this background, we are trying to develop a new earthquake forecast model which combines catalog-based and non-catalog-based approaches.

  20. "Storms of crustal stress" and AE earthquake precursors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gregori, G. P.; Poscolieri, M.; Paparo, G.; de Simone, S.; Rafanelli, C.; Ventrice, G.

    2010-02-01

    "storm", started in 2008, the l'Aquila earthquake occurred. Additional logical analysis envisages the possibility of distinguishing some kind of "elementary" constituents of a "crustal storm", which can be briefly called "crustal substorms". The concept of "storm" and "substorm" is a common logical aspect, which is shared by several phenomena, depending on their common intrinsic and primary logical properties that can be called lognormality and fractality. Compared to a "crustal storm", a "crustal substorm" is likely to be reckoned to some specific seismic event. Owing to brevity purposes, however, the discussion of "substorms" is given elsewhere. AE is an effective tool for monitoring these phenomena, and other processes that are ongoing within the crust. Eventually they result to be precursors of some more or less violent earthquake. It should be stressed, however, that the target of AE monitoring is diagnosing the Earth's crust. In contrast, earthquake prediction implies a much different perspective, which makes sense only by means of more detailed multiparametric monitoring. An AE array can provide real physical information only about the processes that are objectively ongoing inside different and contiguous large slabs of the crust. The purpose is to monitor the stress propagation that crosses different regions, in order to envisage where and when it can eventually trigger a catastrophe of the system. The conclusion is that continental - or planetary - scale arrays of AE monitoring stations, which record a few different AE frequencies, appear to be the likely first step for diagnosing the evolution of local structures preceding an earthquake. On the other hand, as it is well known, the magnitude of the shock is to be related to the elastic energy stored in the focal volume, rather than to the trigger that starts it.

  1. Analysis of pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies before the global M = 7.0+ earthquakes in 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, Y. B.; Chen, P.; Zhang, S.; Chen, J. J.; Yan, F.; Peng, W. F.

    2012-03-01

    The pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies that occurred before the global M = 7.0+ earthquakes in 2010 are investigated using the total electron content (TEC) from the global ionosphere map (GIM). We analyze the possible causes of the ionospheric anomalies based on the space environment and magnetic field status. Results show that some anomalies are related to the earthquakes. By analyzing the time of occurrence, duration, and spatial distribution of these ionospheric anomalies, a number of new conclusions are drawn, as follows: earthquake-related ionospheric anomalies are not bound to appear; both positive and negative anomalies are likely to occur; and the earthquake-related ionospheric anomalies discussed in the current study occurred 0-2 days before the associated earthquakes and in the afternoon to sunset (i.e. between 12:00 and 20:00 local time). Pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies occur mainly in areas near the epicenter. However, the maximum affected area in the ionosphere does not coincide with the vertical projection of the epicenter of the subsequent earthquake. The directions deviating from the epicenters do not follow a fixed rule. The corresponding ionospheric effects can also be observed in the magnetically conjugated region. However, the probability of the anomalies appearance and extent of the anomalies in the magnetically conjugated region are smaller than the anomalies near the epicenter. Deep-focus earthquakes may also exhibit very significant pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies.

  2. Plasmas in the atmosphere, tectonics and earthquake: a possible link for the crustal diagnosis?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Straser, V.

    2017-12-01

    An important aspect in the crustal surmise is the potential link between luminous phenomena and the earthquake . The study want to added data to this new geophysics concepts. The method is based on the comparison approach and consist in the data connection on a field in the area of Po Plain (Italy) with professional equipment: cameras, video cameras, spectroscopes, ELF / VLF receivers, Geiger counters and EM fields detectors. The Luminous phenomena sighting is compared 24/7 online with INGV and USGS database. The results show the formation of 2 types of plasma near the soil: Spheroidal shape, yellow-orange, constant brightness, sudden appearances, elevation from the ground between 10 ° -20 °, no noise, no wake emitted, estimated size about 2m, and duration of few seconds. Spheroidal shape, intense red fuzzy coloration, constant brightness, sudden appearances and fast movements in a linear fashion or slow movements, elevation from the ground between 2° to 7 °, no noise, no waves emitted, estimated dimensions over 2m, with a duration from a few seconds to a few minutes. We suppose that the formation of gas, also radioactive such as radon, and the electric charges necessary to trigger plasma, are related to the crustal stress. The rocks are exposed to important tectonics efforts and the outcome is the air ionizations near the soil that produce plasma if there are gas. The appearance of plasma forerun the earthquake that will happen some days later. The Anomalous Luminous phenomena may be related to tectonic activity, and the area of investigation can become a "lab" for research in Physics and Geology for the crustal diagnosis of pre-seismic phase.

  3. Salient Features of the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal Earthquake in Relation to Earthquake Cycle and Dynamic Rupture Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ampuero, J. P.; Meng, L.; Hough, S. E.; Martin, S. S.; Asimaki, D.

    2015-12-01

    Two salient features of the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake provide new opportunities to evaluate models of earthquake cycle and dynamic rupture. The Gorkha earthquake broke only partially across the seismogenic depth of the Main Himalayan Thrust: its slip was confined in a narrow depth range near the bottom of the locked zone. As indicated by the belt of background seismicity and decades of geodetic monitoring, this is an area of stress concentration induced by deep fault creep. Previous conceptual models attribute such intermediate-size events to rheological segmentation along-dip, including a fault segment with intermediate rheology in between the stable and unstable slip segments. We will present results from earthquake cycle models that, in contrast, highlight the role of stress loading concentration, rather than frictional segmentation. These models produce "super-cycles" comprising recurrent characteristic events interspersed by deep, smaller non-characteristic events of overall increasing magnitude. Because the non-characteristic events are an intrinsic component of the earthquake super-cycle, the notion of Coulomb triggering or time-advance of the "big one" is ill-defined. The high-frequency (HF) ground motions produced in Kathmandu by the Gorkha earthquake were weaker than expected for such a magnitude and such close distance to the rupture, as attested by strong motion recordings and by macroseismic data. Static slip reached close to Kathmandu but had a long rise time, consistent with control by the along-dip extent of the rupture. Moreover, the HF (1 Hz) radiation sources, imaged by teleseismic back-projection of multiple dense arrays calibrated by aftershock data, was deep and far from Kathmandu. We argue that HF rupture imaging provided a better predictor of shaking intensity than finite source inversion. The deep location of HF radiation can be attributed to rupture over heterogeneous initial stresses left by the background seismic activity

  4. Ionospheric earthquake effects detection based on Total Electron Content (TEC) GPS Correlation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sunardi, Bambang; Muslim, Buldan; Eka Sakya, Andi; Rohadi, Supriyanto; Sulastri; Murjaya, Jaya

    2018-03-01

    Advances in science and technology showed that ground-based GPS receiver was able to detect ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) disturbances caused by various natural phenomena such as earthquakes. One study of Tohoku (Japan) earthquake, March 11, 2011, magnitude M 9.0 showed TEC fluctuations observed from GPS observation network spread around the disaster area. This paper discussed the ionospheric earthquake effects detection using TEC GPS data. The case studies taken were Kebumen earthquake, January 25, 2014, magnitude M 6.2, Sumba earthquake, February 12, 2016, M 6.2 and Halmahera earthquake, February 17, 2016, M 6.1. TEC-GIM (Global Ionosphere Map) correlation methods for 31 days were used to monitor TEC anomaly in ionosphere. To ensure the geomagnetic disturbances due to solar activity, we also compare with Dst index in the same time window. The results showed anomalous ratio of correlation coefficient deviation to its standard deviation upon occurrences of Kebumen and Sumba earthquake, but not detected a similar anomaly for the Halmahera earthquake. It was needed a continous monitoring of TEC GPS data to detect the earthquake effects in ionosphere. This study giving hope in strengthening the earthquake effect early warning system using TEC GPS data. The method development of continuous TEC GPS observation derived from GPS observation network that already exists in Indonesia is needed to support earthquake effects early warning systems.

  5. Earthquakes; March-April 1975

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Person, W.J.

    1975-01-01

    There were no major earthquakes (magnitude 7.0-7.9) in March or April; however, there were earthquake fatalities in Chile, Iran, and Venezuela and approximately 35 earthquake-related injuries were reported around the world. In the United States a magnitude 6.0 earthquake struck the Idaho-Utah border region. Damage was estimated at about a million dollars. The shock was felt over a wide area and was the largest to hit the continental Untied States since the San Fernando earthquake of February 1971. 

  6. Earthquakes, March-April, 1993

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Person, Waverly J.

    1993-01-01

    Worldwide, only one major earthquake (7.0earthquake, a magnitude 7.2 shock, struck the Santa Cruz Islands region in the South Pacific on March 6. Earthquake-related deaths occurred in the Fiji Islands, China, and Peru.

  7. Thermal emission before earthquakes by analyzing satellite infra-red data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouzounov, D.; Taylor, P.; Bryant, N.; Pulinets, S.; Freund, F.

    2004-05-01

    Satellite thermal imaging data indicate long-lived thermal anomaly fields associated with large linear structures and fault systems in the Earth's crust but also with short-lived anomalies prior to major earthquakes. Positive anomalous land surface temperature excursions of the order of 3-4oC have been observed from NOAA/AVHRR, GOES/METEOSAT and EOS Terra/Aqua satellites prior to some major earthquake around the world. The rapid time-dependent evolution of the "thermal anomaly" suggests that is changing mid-IR emissivity from the earth. These short-lived "thermal anomalies", however, are very transient therefore there origin has yet to be determined. Their areal extent and temporal evolution may be dependent on geology, tectonic, focal mechanism, meteorological conditions and other factors.This work addresses the relationship between tectonic stress, electro-chemical and thermodynamic processes in the atmosphere and increasing mid-IR flux as part of a larger family of electromagnetic (EM) phenomena related to seismic activity.We still need to understand better the link between seismo-mechanical processes in the crust, on the surface, and at the earth-atmospheric interface that trigger thermal anomalies. This work serves as an introduction to our effort to find an answer to this question. We will present examples from the strong earthquakes that have occurred in the Americas during 2003/2004 and the techniques used to record the thermal emission mid-IR anomalies, geomagnetic and ionospheric variations that appear to associated with impending earthquake activity.

  8. Perspectives on earthquake hazards in the New Madrid seismic zone, Missouri

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thenhaus, P.C.

    1990-01-01

    A sequence of three great earthquakes struck the Central United States during the winter of 1811-1812 in the area of New Madrid, Missouri. they are considered to be the greatest earthquakes in the conterminous U.S because they were felt and caused damage at far greater distances than any other earthquakes in U.S history. The large population currently living within the damage area of these earthquakes means that widespread destruction and loss of life is likely if the sequence were repeated. In contrast to California, where the earthquakes are felt frequently, the damaging earthquakes that have occurred in the Easter U.S-in 155 (Cape Ann, Mass.), 1811-12 (New Madrid, Mo.), 1886 (Charleston S.C) ,and 1897 (Giles County, Va.- are generally regarded as only historical phenomena (fig. 1). The social memory of these earthquakes no longer exists. A fundamental problem in the Eastern U.S, therefore, is that the earthquake hazard is not generally considered today in land-use and civic planning. This article offers perspectives on the earthquake hazard of the New Madrid seismic zone through discussions of the geology of the Mississippi Embayment, the historical earthquakes that have occurred there, the earthquake risk, and the "tools" that geoscientists have to study the region. The so-called earthquake hazard is defined  by the characterization of the physical attributes of the geological structures that cause earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, their potential size, and the expected ground motions. the term "earthquake risk," on the other hand, refers to aspects of the expected damage to manmade strctures and to lifelines as a result of the earthquake hazard.  

  9. Relative Contributions of Geothermal Pumping and Long-Term Earthquake Rate to Seismicity at California Geothermal Fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weiser, D. A.; Jackson, D. D.

    2015-12-01

    In a tectonically active area, a definitive discrimination between geothermally-induced and tectonic earthquakes is difficult to achieve. We focus our study on California's 11 major geothermal fields: Amedee, Brawley, Casa Diablo, Coso, East Mesa, The Geysers, Heber, Litchfield, Salton Sea, Susanville, and Wendel. The Geysers geothermal field is the world's largest geothermal energy producer. California's Department of Oil Gas and Geothermal Resources provides field-wide monthly injection and production volumes for each of these sites, which allows us to study the relationship between geothermal pumping activities and seismicity. Since many of the geothermal fields began injecting and producing before nearby seismic stations were installed, we use smoothed seismicity since 1932 from the ANSS catalog as a proxy for tectonic earthquake rate. We examine both geothermal pumping and long-term earthquake rate as factors that may control earthquake rate. Rather than focusing only on the largest earthquake, which is essentially a random occurrence in time, we examine how M≥4 earthquake rate density (probability per unit area, time, and magnitude) varies for each field. We estimate relative contributions to the observed earthquake rate of M≥4 from both a long-term earthquake rate (Kagan and Jackson, 2010) and pumping activity. For each geothermal field, respective earthquake catalogs (NCEDC and SCSN) are complete above at least M3 during the test period (which we tailor to each site). We test the hypothesis that the observed earthquake rate at a geothermal site during the test period is a linear combination of the long-term seismicity and pumping rates. We use a grid search to determine the confidence interval of the weighting parameters.

  10. Retrospective stress-forecasting of earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Yuan; Crampin, Stuart

    2015-04-01

    retrospectively stress-forecasting ~17 earthquakes ranging in magnitude from a M1.7 swarm event in N Iceland, to the 1999 M7.7 Chi-Chi Earthquake in Taiwan, and the 2004 Mw9.2 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake (SAE). Before SAE, the changes in SWS were observed at seismic stations in Iceland at a distance of ~10,500km the width of the Eurasian Plate, from Indonesia demonstrating the 'butterfly wings' sensitivity of the New Geophysics of a critically microcracked Earth. At that time, the sensitivity of the phenomena had not been recognised, and the SAE was not stress-forecast. These results have been published at various times in various formats in various journals. This presentation displays all the results in a normalised format that allows the similarities to be recognised, confirming that observations of SWS time-delays can stress-forecast the times, magnitudes, and in some circumstances fault-breaks, of impending earthquakes. Papers referring to these developments can be found in geos.ed.ac.uk/home/scrampin/opinion. Also see abstracts in EGU2015 Sessions: Crampin & Gao (SM1.1), Liu & Crampin (NH2.5), and Crampin & Gao (GD.1).

  11. Empirical ground-motion relations for subduction-zone earthquakes and their application to Cascadia and other regions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Atkinson, G.M.; Boore, D.M.

    2003-01-01

    Ground-motion relations for earthquakes that occur in subduction zones are an important input to seismic-hazard analyses in many parts of the world. In the Cascadia region (Washington, Oregon, northern California, and British Columbia), for example, there is a significant hazard from megathrust earthquakes along the subduction interface and from large events within the subducting slab. These hazards are in addition to the hazard from shallow earthquakes in the overlying crust. We have compiled a response spectra database from thousands of strong-motion recordings from events of moment magnitude (M) 5-8.3 occurring in subduction zones around the world, including both interface and in-slab events. The 2001 M 6.8 Nisqually and 1999 M 5.9 Satsop earthquakes are included in the database, as are many records from subduction zones in Japan (Kyoshin-Net data), Mexico (Guerrero data), and Central America. The size of the database is four times larger than that available for previous empirical regressions to determine ground-motion relations for subduction-zone earthquakes. The large dataset enables improved determination of attenuation parameters and magnitude scaling, for both interface and in-slab events. Soil response parameters are also better determined by the data. We use the database to develop global ground-motion relations for interface and in-slab earthquakes, using a maximum likelihood regression method. We analyze regional variability of ground-motion amplitudes across the global database and find that there are significant regional differences. In particular, amplitudes in Cascadia differ by more than a factor of 2 from those in Japan for the same magnitude, distance, event type, and National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) soil class. This is believed to be due to regional differences in the depth of the soil profile, which are not captured by the NEHRP site classification scheme. Regional correction factors to account for these differences are

  12. Multi-Sensors Observations of Pre-Earthquake Signals. What We Learned from the Great Tohoku Earthquake?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ouzonounov, D.; Pulinets, S.; Papadopoulos, G.; Kunitsyn, V.; Nesterov, I.; Hattori, K.; Kafatos, M.; Taylor, P.

    2012-01-01

    The lessons learned from the Great Tohoku EQ (Japan, 2011) will affect our future observations and an analysis is the main focus of this presentation. Multi-sensors observations and multidisciplinary research is presented in our study of the phenomena preceding major earthquakes Our approach is based on a systematic analysis of several physical and environmental parameters, which been reported by others in connections with earthquake processes: thermal infrared radiation; temperature; concentration of electrons in the ionosphere; radon/ion activities; and atmospheric temperature/humidity [Ouzounov et al, 2011]. We used the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model, one of several possible paradigms [Pulinets and Ouzounov, 2011] to interpret our observations. We retrospectively analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of three different physical parameters characterizing the state of the atmosphere, ionosphere the ground surface several days before the March 11, 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake Namely: (i) Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) measured at the top of the atmosphere; (ii) Anomalous variations of ionospheric parameters revealed by multi-sensors observations; and (iii) The change in the foreshock sequence (rate, space and time); Our results show that on March 8th, 2011 a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed and an anomaly developed near the epicenter with largest value occurring on March 11 at 07.30 LT. The GPS/TEC data indicate an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. Starting from this day in the lower ionosphere there was also observed an abnormal TEC variation over the epicenter. From March 3 to 11 a large increase in electron concentration was recorded at all four Japanese ground-based ionosondes, which returned to normal after the main earthquake. We use the Japanese GPS network stations and method of Radio Tomography to study the spatiotemporal structure of ionospheric

  13. Earthquake nucleation on faults with rate-and state-dependent strength

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dieterich, J.H.

    1992-01-01

    Dieterich, J.H., 1992. Earthquake nucleation on faults with rate- and state-dependent strength. In: T. Mikumo, K. Aki, M. Ohnaka, L.J. Ruff and P.K.P. Spudich (Editors), Earthquake Source Physics and Earthquake Precursors. Tectonophysics, 211: 115-134. Faults with rate- and state-dependent constitutive properties reproduce a range of observed fault slip phenomena including spontaneous nucleation of slip instabilities at stresses above some critical stress level and recovery of strength following slip instability. Calculations with a plane-strain fault model with spatially varying properties demonstrate that accelerating slip precedes instability and becomes localized to a fault patch. The dimensions of the fault patch follow scaling relations for the minimum critical length for unstable fault slip. The critical length is a function of normal stress, loading conditions and constitutive parameters which include Dc, the characteristic slip distance. If slip starts on a patch that exceeds the critical size, the length of the rapidly accelerating zone tends to shrink to the characteristic size as the time of instability approaches. Solutions have been obtained for a uniform, fixed-patch model that are in good agreement with results from the plane-strain model. Over a wide range of conditions, above the steady-state stress, the logarithm of the time to instability linearly decreases as the initial stress increases. Because nucleation patch length and premonitory displacement are proportional to Dc, the moment of premonitory slip scales by D3c. The scaling of Dc is currently an open question. Unless Dc for earthquake faults is significantly greater than that observed on laboratory faults, premonitory strain arising from the nucleation process for earthquakes may by too small to detect using current observation methods. Excluding the possibility that Dc in the nucleation zone controls the magnitude of the subsequent earthquake, then the source dimensions of the smallest

  14. Preliminary results on earthquake triggered landslides for the Haiti earthquake (January 2010)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Westen, Cees; Gorum, Tolga

    2010-05-01

    This study presents the first results on an analysis of the landslides triggered by the Ms 7.0 Haiti earthquake that occurred on January 12, 2010 in the boundary region of the Pacific Plate and the North American plate. The fault is a left lateral strike slip fault with a clear surface expression. According to the USGS earthquake information the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault system has not produced any major earthquake in the last 100 years, and historical earthquakes are known from 1860, 1770, 1761, 1751, 1684, 1673, and 1618, though none of these has been confirmed in the field as associated with this fault. We used high resolution satellite imagery available for the pre and post earthquake situations, which were made freely available for the response and rescue operations. We made an interpretation of all co-seismic landslides in the epicentral area. We conclude that the earthquake mainly triggered landslide in the northern slope of the fault-related valley and in a number of isolated area. The earthquake apparently didn't trigger many visible landslides within the slum areas on the slopes in the southern part of Port-au-Prince and Carrefour. We also used ASTER DEM information to relate the landslide occurrences with DEM derivatives.

  15. Studies related to the Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake of 1886; tectonics and seismicity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gottfried, David; Annell, C.S.; Byerly, G.R.; Lanphere, Marvin A.; Phillips, Jeffrey D.; Gohn, Gregory S.; Houser, Brenda B.; Schneider, Ray R.; Ackermann, Hans D.; Yantis, B.R.; Costain, John K.; Schilt, F. Steve; Brown, Larry; Oliver, Jack E.; Kaufman, Sidney; Hamilton, Robert Morrison; Behrendt, John C.; Henry, V. James; Bayer, Kenneth C.; Daniels, David L.; Zietz, Isidore; Popenoe, Peter; Chowns, T.M.; Williams, C.T.; Dooley, Robert E.; Wampler, J.; Dillon, William P.; Klitgord, Kim D.; Paull, Charles K.; McGinnis, Lyle D.; Dewey, James W.; Tarr, Arthur C.; Rhea, Susan; Wentworth, Carl M.; Mergner-Keefer, Marcia; Bollinger, G.A.; Gohn, Gregory S.

    1983-01-01

    Since 1973, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), with support from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, has conducted extensive investigations of the tectonic and seismic history of the Charleston, S.C., earthquake zone and surrounding areas. The goal of these investigations has been to discover the cause of the large intraplate Charleston earthquake of 1886, which dominates the record of seismicity in the Southeastern United States, through an understanding of the historic and modern seismicity at Charleston and of the tectonic setting of the seismicity. This goal is being pursued to evaluate the potential for additional large earthquakes in the Charleston area and surrounding regions and to determine whether the Charleston area differs tectonically in any significant fashion from other parts of the Southeastern United States. An understanding of the specific cause for the 1886 event and of the regional distribution of any structures that are generically related to or geometrically and mechanically similar to the source structure is essential for evaluation of seismic hazards throughout the Southeast.The results given herein represent significant progress toward understanding the tectonic setting of the Charleston-area seismicity. Several chapters in the volume address the distribution and origin of pre-Cretaceous rocks and structures beneath Coastal Plain sediments in the Charleston area and regionally beneath the southern Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Continental Shelf. The modern seismicity at Charleston is occurring at depths equal to or greater than the known extent of these older structures, and rejuvenation of an older fault in the modern stress field is a possible cause of the seismicity. Accordingly, several chapters discuss the possible relationships of the various pre-Cretaceous structures to faults identified near Charleston that have a known Cretaceous and Cenozoic movement history and to the historic and instrumentally recorded seismicity. However

  16. Issues on the Japanese Earthquake Hazard Evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashimoto, M.; Fukushima, Y.; Sagiya, T.

    2013-12-01

    The 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake forced the policy of counter-measurements to earthquake disasters, including earthquake hazard evaluations, to be changed in Japan. Before the March 11, Japanese earthquake hazard evaluation was based on the history of earthquakes that repeatedly occurs and the characteristic earthquake model. The source region of an earthquake was identified and its occurrence history was revealed. Then the conditional probability was estimated using the renewal model. However, the Japanese authorities changed the policy after the megathrust earthquake in 2011 such that the largest earthquake in a specific seismic zone should be assumed on the basis of available scientific knowledge. According to this policy, three important reports were issued during these two years. First, the Central Disaster Management Council issued a new estimate of damages by a hypothetical Mw9 earthquake along the Nankai trough during 2011 and 2012. The model predicts a 34 m high tsunami on the southern Shikoku coast and intensity 6 or higher on the JMA scale in most area of Southwest Japan as the maximum. Next, the Earthquake Research Council revised the long-term earthquake hazard evaluation of earthquakes along the Nankai trough in May 2013, which discarded the characteristic earthquake model and put much emphasis on the diversity of earthquakes. The so-called 'Tokai' earthquake was negated in this evaluation. Finally, another report by the CDMC concluded that, with the current knowledge, it is hard to predict the occurrence of large earthquakes along the Nankai trough using the present techniques, based on the diversity of earthquake phenomena. These reports created sensations throughout the country and local governments are struggling to prepare counter-measurements. These reports commented on large uncertainty in their evaluation near their ends, but are these messages transmitted properly to the public? Earthquake scientists, including authors, are involved in

  17. Statistical relations among earthquake magnitude, surface rupture length, and surface fault displacement

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bonilla, Manuel G.; Mark, Robert K.; Lienkaemper, James J.

    1984-01-01

    In order to refine correlations of surface-wave magnitude, fault rupture length at the ground surface, and fault displacement at the surface by including the uncertainties in these variables, the existing data were critically reviewed and a new data base was compiled. Earthquake magnitudes were redetermined as necessary to make them as consistent as possible with the Gutenberg methods and results, which make up much of the data base. Measurement errors were estimated for the three variables for 58 moderate to large shallow-focus earthquakes. Regression analyses were then made utilizing the estimated measurement errors.The regression analysis demonstrates that the relations among the variables magnitude, length, and displacement are stochastic in nature. The stochastic variance, introduced in part by incomplete surface expression of seismogenic faulting, variation in shear modulus, and regional factors, dominates the estimated measurement errors. Thus, it is appropriate to use ordinary least squares for the regression models, rather than regression models based upon an underlying deterministic relation in which the variance results primarily from measurement errors.Significant differences exist in correlations of certain combinations of length, displacement, and magnitude when events are grouped by fault type or by region, including attenuation regions delineated by Evernden and others.Estimates of the magnitude and the standard deviation of the magnitude of a prehistoric or future earthquake associated with a fault can be made by correlating Ms with the logarithms of rupture length, fault displacement, or the product of length and displacement.Fault rupture area could be reliably estimated for about 20 of the events in the data set. Regression of Ms on rupture area did not result in a marked improvement over regressions that did not involve rupture area. Because no subduction-zone earthquakes are included in this study, the reported results do not apply to such

  18. Primate empathy: three factors and their combinations for empathy-related phenomena.

    PubMed

    Yamamoto, Shinya

    2017-05-01

    Empathy as a research topic is receiving increasing attention, although there seems some confusion on the definition of empathy across different fields. Frans de Waal (de Waal FBM. Putting the altruism back into altruism: the evolution of empathy. Annu Rev Psychol 2008, 59:279-300. doi:10.1146/annurev.psych.59.103006.093625) used empathy as an umbrella term and proposed a comprehensive model for the evolution of empathy with some of its basic elements in nonhuman animals. In de Waal's model, empathy consists of several layers distinguished by required cognitive levels; the perception-action mechanism plays the core role for connecting ourself and others. Then, human-like empathy such as perspective-taking develops in outer layers according to cognitive sophistication, leading to prosocial acts such as targeted helping. I agree that animals demonstrate many empathy-related phenomena; however, the species differences and the level of cognitive sophistication of the phenomena might be interpreted in another way than this simple linearly developing model. Our recent studies with chimpanzees showed that their perspective-taking ability does not necessarily lead to proactive helping behavior. Herein, as a springboard for further studies, I reorganize the empathy-related phenomena by proposing a combination model instead of the linear development model. This combination model is composed of three organizing factors: matching with others, understanding of others, and prosociality. With these three factors and their combinations, most empathy-related matters can be categorized and mapped to appropriate context; this may be a good first step to discuss the evolution of empathy in relation to the neural connections in human and nonhuman animal brains. I would like to propose further comparative studies, especially from the viewpoint of Homo-Pan (chimpanzee and bonobo) comparison. WIREs Cogn Sci 2017, 8:e1431. doi: 10.1002/wcs.1431 For further resources related to this article

  19. 2010 Chile Earthquake Aftershock Response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barientos, Sergio

    2010-05-01

    The Mw=8.8 earthquake off the coast of Chile on 27 February 2010 is the 5th largest megathrust earthquake ever to be recorded and provides an unprecedented opportunity to advance our understanding of megathrust earthquakes and associated phenomena. The 2010 Chile earthquake ruptured the Concepcion-Constitucion segment of the Nazca/South America plate boundary, south of the Central Chile region and triggered a tsunami along the coast. Following the 2010 earthquake, a very energetic aftershock sequence is being observed in an area that is 600 km along strike from Valparaiso to 150 km south of Concepcion. Within the first three weeks there were over 260 aftershocks with magnitude 5.0 or greater and 18 with magnitude 6.0 or greater (NEIC, USGS). The Concepcion-Constitucion segment lies immediately north of the rupture zone associated with the great magnitude 9.5 Chile earthquake, and south of the 1906 and the 1985 Valparaiso earthquakes. The last great subduction earthquake in the region dates back to the February 1835 event described by Darwin (1871). Since 1835, part of the region was affected in the north by the Talca earthquake in December 1928, interpreted as a shallow dipping thrust event, and by the Chillan earthquake (Mw 7.9, January 1939), a slab-pull intermediate depth earthquake. For the last 30 years, geodetic studies in this area were consistent with a fully coupled elastic loading of the subduction interface at depth; this led to identify the area as a mature seismic gap with potential for an earthquake of magnitude of the order 8.5 or several earthquakes of lesser magnitude. What was less expected was the partial rupturing of the 1985 segment toward north. Today, the 2010 earthquake raises some disturbing questions: Why and how the rupture terminated where it did at the northern end? How did the 2010 earthquake load the adjacent segment to the north and did the 1985 earthquake only partially ruptured the plate interface leaving loaded asperities since

  20. Earthquakes, September-October 1991

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Person, W.J.

    1992-01-01

    There were two major earthquakes (7.0-7.9) during this reporting period. the first was in the Solomon Islands on October 14 and the second was in India on October 19. Earthquake-related deaths were reported in Guatemala and India. Htere were no significant earthquakes in the United States during the period covered in this report. 

  1. Earthquake potential revealed by tidal influence on earthquake size-frequency statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ide, Satoshi; Yabe, Suguru; Tanaka, Yoshiyuki

    2016-11-01

    The possibility that tidal stress can trigger earthquakes is long debated. In particular, a clear causal relationship between small earthquakes and the phase of tidal stress is elusive. However, tectonic tremors deep within subduction zones are highly sensitive to tidal stress levels, with tremor rate increasing at an exponential rate with rising tidal stress. Thus, slow deformation and the possibility of earthquakes at subduction plate boundaries may be enhanced during periods of large tidal stress. Here we calculate the tidal stress history, and specifically the amplitude of tidal stress, on a fault plane in the two weeks before large earthquakes globally, based on data from the global, Japanese, and Californian earthquake catalogues. We find that very large earthquakes, including the 2004 Sumatran, 2010 Maule earthquake in Chile and the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan, tend to occur near the time of maximum tidal stress amplitude. This tendency is not obvious for small earthquakes. However, we also find that the fraction of large earthquakes increases (the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation decreases) as the amplitude of tidal shear stress increases. The relationship is also reasonable, considering the well-known relationship between stress and the b-value. This suggests that the probability of a tiny rock failure expanding to a gigantic rupture increases with increasing tidal stress levels. We conclude that large earthquakes are more probable during periods of high tidal stress.

  2. ViscoSim Earthquake Simulator

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pollitz, Fred

    2012-01-01

    Synthetic seismicity simulations have been explored by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Earthquake Simulators Group in order to guide long‐term forecasting efforts related to the Unified California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (Tullis et al., 2012a). In this study I describe the viscoelastic earthquake simulator (ViscoSim) of Pollitz, 2009. Recapitulating to a large extent material previously presented by Pollitz (2009, 2011) I describe its implementation of synthetic ruptures and how it differs from other simulators being used by the group.

  3. Local observations of the onset of a large earthquake: 28 June 1992 Landers, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Abercrombie, Richael; Mori, Jim

    1994-01-01

    The Landers earthquake (MW 7.3) of 28 June 1992 had a very emergent onset. The first large amplitude arrivals are delayed by about 3 sec with respect to the origin time, and are preceded by smaller-scale slip. Other large earthquakes have been observed to have similar emergent onsets, but the Landers event is one of the first to be well recorded on nearby stations. We used these recordings to investigate the spatial relationship between the hypocenter and the onset of the large energy release, and to determine the slip function of the 3-sec nucleation process. Relative location of the onset of the large energy release with respect to the initial hypocenter indicates its source was between 1 and 4 km north of the hypocenter and delayed by approximately 2.5 sec. Three-station array analysis of the P wave shows that the large amplitude onset arrives with a faster apparent velocity compared to the first arrivals, indicating that the large amplitude source was several kilometers deeper than the initial onset. An ML 2.8 foreshock, located close to the hypocenter, was used as an empirical Green's function to correct for path and site effects from the first 3 sec of the mainshock seismogram. The resultant deconvolution produced a slip function that showed two subevents preceding the main energy release, an MW4.4 followed by an MW 5.6. These subevents do not appear anomalous in comparison to simple moderate-sized earthquakes, suggesting that they were normal events which just triggered or grew into a much larger earthquake. If small and moderate-sized earthquakes commonly “detonate” much larger events, this implies that the dynamic stresses during earthquake rupture are at least as important as long-term static stresses in causing earthquakes, and the prospects of reliable earthquake prediction from premonitory phenomena are not improved.

  4. Non-Seismic Pre-Earthquake Phenomena and their Effects on the Biosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freund, Friedemann; Stolc, Viktor

    2013-04-01

    Earthquakes occur when tectonic stresses build up deep in the Earth and reach the threshold of catastrophic rupture. During the build-up of stress, long before rupture, processes occur in the Earth crust that lead to the activation of highly mobile electronic charge carriers. One remarkable property of these charge carriers is that they are able to flow out of the stressed rock volume into surrounding rocks. Such an outflow constitutes an electric current, which generates electromagnetic (EM) signals. If the outflow occurs in bursts, the EM signals will consist of short EM pulses. If the outflow is continuous, the currents are likely to fluctuate, generating EM emissions over a wide frequency range. Only the ultralow and extremely low frequency (ULF/ELF) waves can travel through kilometers of rock and reach the Earth surface. These ULF/ELF emissions can last for hours or days. In a companion poster we report on their effects on crucial biochemical reactions in living organisms. Another remarkable property of the outflowing charge carriers is that they are (i) positively charged and (ii) highly oxidizing. When they reach the Earth surface from below, they build up microscopic but very steep electric fields, strong enough to field-ionize air molecules, i.e. rip an electron off air molecules. As a result the air above the epicenter of an impending major earthquake often becomes heavily laden with positive airborne ions. Medical research has long shown that positive airborne ions cause changes in the stress hormone level in animals and humans. Therefore, positive airborne ions are a likely cause for unusual reactions among animals and humans. When the outflowing charge carriers cross from rocks into water, they oxidize the water to hydrogen peroxide. This process, plus oxidation reactions involving dissolved organic compounds in the ground water, are likely candidates for causing behavioral changes, even death, among aquatic animals.

  5. The Chiloé Mw 7.6 earthquake of 2016 December 25 in Southern Chile and its relation to the Mw 9.5 1960 Valdivia earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lange, Dietrich; Ruiz, Javier; Carrasco, Sebastián; Manríquez, Paula

    2018-04-01

    On 2016 December 25, an Mw 7.6 earthquake broke a portion of the Southern Chilean subduction zone south of Chiloé Island, located in the central part of the Mw 9.5 1960 Valdivia earthquake. This region is characterized by repeated earthquakes in 1960 and historical times with very sparse interseismic activity due to the subduction of a young (˜15 Ma), and therefore hot, oceanic plate. We estimate the coseismic slip distribution based on a kinematic finite-fault source model, and through joint inversion of teleseismic body waves and strong motion data. The coseismic slip model yields a total seismic moment of 3.94 × 1020 N.m that occurred over ˜30 s, with the rupture propagating mainly downdip, reaching a peak slip of ˜4.2 m. Regional moment tensor inversion of stronger aftershocks reveals thrust type faulting at depths of the plate interface. The fore- and aftershock seismicity is mostly related to the subduction interface with sparse seismicity in the overriding crust. The 2016 Chiloé event broke a region with increased locking and most likely broke an asperity of the 1960 earthquake. The updip limit of the main event, aftershocks, foreshocks and interseismic activity are spatially similar, located ˜15 km offshore and parallel to Chiloé Islands west coast. The coseismic slip model of the 2016 Chiloé earthquake suggests a peak slip of 4.2 m that locally exceeds the 3.38 m slip deficit that has accumulated since 1960. Therefore, the 2016 Chiloé earthquake possibly released strain that has built up prior to the 1960 Valdivia earthquake.

  6. In-situ investigation of relations between slow slip events, repeaters and earthquake nucleation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marty, S. B.; Schubnel, A.; Gardonio, B.; Bhat, H. S.; Fukuyama, E.

    2017-12-01

    Recent observations have shown that, in subduction zones, imperceptible slip, known as "slow slip events", could trigger powerful earthquakes and could be link to the onset of swarms of repeaters. In the aim of investigating the relation between repeaters, slow slip events and earthquake nucleation, we have conducted stick-slip experiments on saw-cut Indian Gabbro under upper crustal stress conditions (up to 180 MPa confining pressure). During the past decades, the reproduction of micro-earthquakes in the laboratory enabled a better understanding and to better constrain physical parameters that are the origin of the seismic source. Using a new set of calibrated piezoelectric acoustic emission sensors and high frequency dynamic strain gages, we are now able to measure a large number of physical parameters during stick-slip motion, such as the rupture velocity, the slip velocity, the dynamic stress drop and the absolute magnitudes and sizes of foreshock acoustic emissions. Preliminary observations systemically show quasi-static slip accelerations, onset of repeaters as well as an increase in the acoustic emission rate before failure. In the next future, we will further investigate the links between slow slip events, repeaters, stress build-up and earthquakes, using our high-frequency acoustic and strain recordings and applying template matching analysis.

  7. Earthquake Emergency Education in Dushanbe, Tajikistan

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mohadjer, Solmaz; Bendick, Rebecca; Halvorson, Sarah J.; Saydullaev, Umed; Hojiboev, Orifjon; Stickler, Christine; Adam, Zachary R.

    2010-01-01

    We developed a middle school earthquake science and hazards curriculum to promote earthquake awareness to students in the Central Asian country of Tajikistan. These materials include pre- and post-assessment activities, six science activities describing physical processes related to earthquakes, five activities on earthquake hazards and mitigation…

  8. Complex surface rupturing and related formation mechanisms in the Xiaoyudong area for the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Xi-bin; Yuan, Ren-mao; Xu, Xi-wei; Chen, Gui-hua; Klinger, Yann; Chang, Chung-Pai; Ren, Jun-jie; Xu, Chong; Li, Kang

    2012-09-01

    The large oblique reverse slip shock of the 2008 Mw = 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake, China, produced one of the longest and most complicated surface ruptures ever known. The complexity is particularly evident in the Xiaoyudong area, where three special phenomena occurred: the 7 km long Xiaoyudong rupture perpendicular to the Beichuan-Yingxiu fault; the occurrence of two parallel faults rupturing simultaneously, and apparent discontinuity of the Beichuan-Yingxiu rupture. This paper systematically documents these co-seismic rupture phenomena for the Xiaoyudong area. The discussion and results are based on field investigations and analyses of faulting mechanisms and prevalent stress conditions. The results show that the Beichuan-Yingxiu fault formed a 3.5 km wide restraining stepover at the Xiaoyudong area. The Xiaoyudong fault is not a tear fault suggested by previous researches, but a frontal reverse fault induced by the oblique compression at this stepover; it well accommodates the 'deformation gap' of the Beichuan-Yingxiu fault in the Xiaoyudong area. Further, stress along the Peng-Guan fault plane doubles due to a change in dip angle of the Beichuan-Yingxiu fault across the Xiaoyudong restraining stepover. This resulted in two faults rupturing the ground's surface simultaneously, to the north of the Xiaoyudong area. These results are helpful in deepening our understanding of the dynamic processes that produced surface ruptures during the Wenchuan earthquake. Furthermore, the results suggest more attention be focused on the influence of dextral slip component, the change of the control fault's attitude, and property differences in rocks on either side of faults when discussing the formation mechanism of surface ruptures.

  9. Deviant Earthquakes: Data-driven Constraints on the Variability in Earthquake Source Properties and Seismic Hazard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trugman, Daniel Taylor

    The complexity of the earthquake rupture process makes earthquakes inherently unpredictable. Seismic hazard forecasts often presume that the rate of earthquake occurrence can be adequately modeled as a space-time homogenenous or stationary Poisson process and that the relation between the dynamical source properties of small and large earthquakes obey self-similar scaling relations. While these simplified models provide useful approximations and encapsulate the first-order statistical features of the historical seismic record, they are inconsistent with the complexity underlying earthquake occurrence and can lead to misleading assessments of seismic hazard when applied in practice. The six principle chapters of this thesis explore the extent to which the behavior of real earthquakes deviates from these simplified models, and the implications that the observed deviations have for our understanding of earthquake rupture processes and seismic hazard. Chapter 1 provides a brief thematic overview and introduction to the scope of this thesis. Chapter 2 examines the complexity of the 2010 M7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake, focusing on the relation between its unexpected and unprecedented occurrence and anthropogenic stresses from the nearby Cerro Prieto Geothermal Field. Chapter 3 compares long-term changes in seismicity within California's three largest geothermal fields in an effort to characterize the relative influence of natural and anthropogenic stress transients on local seismic hazard. Chapter 4 describes a hybrid, hierarchical clustering algorithm that can be used to relocate earthquakes using waveform cross-correlation, and applies the new algorithm to study the spatiotemporal evolution of two recent seismic swarms in western Nevada. Chapter 5 describes a new spectral decomposition technique that can be used to analyze the dynamic source properties of large datasets of earthquakes, and applies this approach to revisit the question of self-similar scaling of

  10. Electrocardiographic features of patients with earthquake related posttraumatic stress disorder

    PubMed Central

    İlhan, Erkan; Kaplan, Abdullah; Güvenç, Tolga Sinan; Biteker, Murat; Karabulut, Evindar; Işıklı, Serhan

    2013-01-01

    AIM: To analyze electrocardiographic features of patients diagnosed with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after the Van-Erciş earthquake, with a shock measuring 7.2 on the Richter scale that took place in Turkey in October 2011. METHODS: Surface electrocardiograms of 12 patients with PTSD admitted to Van Erciş State Hospital (Van, Turkey) from February 2012 to May 2012 were examined. Psychiatric interviews of the sex and age matched control subjects, who had experienced the earthquake, confirmed the absence of any known diagnosable psychiatric conditions in the control group. RESULTS: A wide range of electrocardiogram (ECG) parameters, such as P-wave dispersion, QT dispersion, QT interval, Tpeak to Tend interval, intrinsicoid deflection durations and other traditional parameters were similar in both groups. There was no one with an abnormal P wave axis, short or long PR interval, long or short QT interval, negative T wave in lateral leads, abnormal T wave axis, abnormal left or right intrinsicoid deflection duration, low voltage, left bundle branch block, right bundle branch block, left posterior hemiblock, left or right axis deviation, left ventricular hypertrophy, right or left atrial enlargement and pathological q(Q) wave in either group. CONCLUSION: The study showed no direct effect of earthquake related PTSD on surface ECG in young patients. So, we propose that PTSD has no direct effect on surface ECG but may cause electrocardiographic changes indirectly by triggering atherosclerosis and/or contributing to the ongoing atherosclerotic process. PMID:23538549

  11. Public Perception of Relative Risk: Earthquakes vs. Hurricanes in the San Diego Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Means, J. D.

    2014-12-01

    Public perception of risk is key in pre-disaster preparation. Despite admonitions from emergency planners, people often fail to take reasonable precautions. But if emergency planners also fail to realize the possibility of a particular disaster scenario, there is very little chance that the public will plan for it. In Southern California there is a well-known risk associated with earthquakes, and it would be difficult to find anyone that didn't understand that the region was subject to risk from earthquakes. On the other hand, few, if any people consider the risk associated with tropical storms or hurricanes. This is reasonable considering people have always been told that the west coast of the United States is immune from hurricanes due to the cold water associated with the California Current, and the hazard of earthquakes is fairly obvious to anyone that has lived the for a while. Such an attitude is probably justifiable for most of Southern California, but it's unclear whether this is true for the San Diego region: destructive earthquakes are historically rare, and there is good evidence that the region was affected by a Category 1 hurricane in 1858. Indeed, during the last 70 years, more people have died from tropical cyclones in Calfornia's southernmost counties (San Diego and Imperial) than have died from earthquakes. In this paper we compare the relative risks from these two different types of disasters for the San Diego region, and attempt to answer why one type of hazard is emphasized in public planning and the other is neglected.

  12. On relating apparent stress to the stress causing earthquake fault slip

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGarr, A.

    1999-01-01

    Apparent stress ??a is defined as ??a = ??????, where ???? is the average shear stress loading the fault plane to cause slip and ?? is the seismic efficiency, defined as Ea/W, where Ea is the energy radiated seismically and W is the total energy released by the earthquake. The results of a recent study in which apparent stresses of mining-induced earthquakes were compared to those measured for laboratory stick-slip friction events led to the hypothesis that ??a/???? ??? 0.06. This hypothesis is tested here against a substantially augmented data set of earthquakes for which ???? can be estimated, mostly from in situ stress measurements, for comparison with ??a. The expanded data set, which includes earthquakes artificially triggered at a depth of 9 km in the German Kontinentales Tiefbohrprogramm der Bundesrepublik Deutschland (KTB) borehole and natural tectonic earthquakes, covers a broad range of hypocentral depths, rock types, pore pressures, and tectonic settings. Nonetheless, over ???14 orders of magnitude in seismic moment, apparent stresses exhibit distinct upper bounds defined by a maximum seismic efficiency of ???0.06, consistent with the hypothesis proposed before. This behavior of ??a and ?? can be expressed in terms of two parameters measured for stick-slip friction events in the laboratory: the ratio of the static to the dynamic coefficient of friction and the fault slip overshoot. Typical values for these two parameters yield seismic efficiencies of ???0.06. In contrast to efficiencies for laboratory events for which ?? is always near 0.06, those for earthquakes tend to be less than this bounding value because Ea for earthquakes is usually underestimated due to factors such as band-limited recording. Thus upper bounds on ??a/???? appear to be controlled by just a few fundamental aspects of frictional stick-slip behavior that are common to shallow earthquakes everywhere. Estimates of ???? from measurements of ??a for suites of earthquakes, using ??a

  13. Impact of earthquakes on sex ratio at birth: Eastern Marmara earthquakes

    PubMed Central

    Doğer, Emek; Çakıroğlu, Yiğit; Köpük, Şule Yıldırım; Ceylan, Yasin; Şimşek, Hayal Uzelli; Çalışkan, Eray

    2013-01-01

    Objective: Previous reports suggest that maternal exposure to acute stress related to earthquakes affects the sex ratio at birth. Our aim was to examine the change in sex ratio at birth after Eastern Marmara earthquake disasters. Material and Methods: This study was performed using the official birth statistics from January 1997 to December 2002 – before and after 17 August 1999, the date of the Golcuk Earthquake – supplied from the Turkey Statistics Institute. The secondary sex ratio was expressed as the male proportion at birth, and the ratio of both affected and unaffected areas were calculated and compared on a monthly basis using data from gender with using the Chi-square test. Results: We observed significant decreases in the secondary sex ratio in the 4th and 8th months following an earthquake in the affected region compared to the unaffected region (p= 0.001 and p= 0.024). In the earthquake region, the decrease observed in the secondary sex ratio during the 8th month after an earthquake was specific to the period after the earthquake. Conclusion: Our study indicated a significant reduction in the secondary sex ratio after an earthquake. With these findings, events that cause sudden intense stress such as earthquakes can have an effect on the sex ratio at birth. PMID:24592082

  14. The effects of earthquake measurement concepts and magnitude anchoring on individuals' perceptions of earthquake risk

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Celsi, R.; Wolfinbarger, M.; Wald, D.

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to explore earthquake risk perceptions in California. Specifically, we examine the risk beliefs, feelings, and experiences of lay, professional, and expert individuals to explore how risk is perceived and how risk perceptions are formed relative to earthquakes. Our results indicate that individuals tend to perceptually underestimate the degree that earthquake (EQ) events may affect them. This occurs in large part because individuals' personal felt experience of EQ events are generally overestimated relative to experienced magnitudes. An important finding is that individuals engage in a process of "cognitive anchoring" of their felt EQ experience towards the reported earthquake magnitude size. The anchoring effect is moderated by the degree that individuals comprehend EQ magnitude measurement and EQ attenuation. Overall, the results of this research provide us with a deeper understanding of EQ risk perceptions, especially as they relate to individuals' understanding of EQ measurement and attenuation concepts. ?? 2005, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  15. Earthquakes, July-August 1992

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Person, W.J.

    1992-01-01

    There were two major earthquakes (7.0≤M<8.0) during this reporting period. A magnitude 7.5 earthquake occurred in Kyrgyzstan on August 19 and a magnitude 7.0 quake struck the Ascension Island region on August 28. In southern California, aftershocks of the magnitude 7.6 earthquake on June 28, 1992, continued. One of these aftershocks caused damage and injuries, and at least one other aftershock caused additional damage. Earthquake-related fatalities were reportred in Kyrgzstan and Pakistan. 

  16. Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

    2016-07-15

    Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  17. Earthquakes, July-August 1991

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Person, W.J.

    1992-01-01

    There was one major earthquake during this reporting period-a magnitude 7.1 shock off the coast of Northern California on August 17. Earthquake-related deaths were reported from Indonesia, Romania, Peru, and Iraq. 

  18. Disaster preparedness and response improvement: comparison of the 2010 Haiti earthquake-related diagnoses with baseline medical data.

    PubMed

    van Berlaer, Gerlant; Staes, Tom; Danschutter, Dirk; Ackermans, Ronald; Zannini, Stefano; Rossi, Gabriele; Buyl, Ronald; Gijs, Geert; Debacker, Michel; Hubloue, Ives

    2017-10-01

    Disaster medicine research generally lacks control groups. This study aims to describe categories of diagnoses encountered by the Belgian First Aid and Support Team after the 2010 Haiti earthquake and extract earthquake-related changes from comparison with comparable baseline data. The hypothesis is that besides earthquake-related trauma, medical problems emerge soon, questioning an appropriate composition of Foreign Medical Teams and Interagency Emergency Health Kits. Using a descriptive cohort study design, diagnoses of patients presenting to the Belgian field hospital were prospectively registered during 4 weeks after the earthquake and compared with those recorded similarly by Médecins Sans Frontières in the same area and time span in previous and later years. Of 7000 triaged postearthquake patients, 3500 were admitted, of whom 2795 were included and analysed. In the fortnight after the earthquake, 90% suffered from injury. In the following fortnight, medical diseases emerged, particularly respiratory (23%) and digestive (14%). More than 53% developed infections within 3 weeks after the event. Médecins Sans Frontières registered 6407 patients in 2009; 6033 in 2011; and 7300 in 2012. A comparison indicates that postearthquake patients suffered significantly less from violence, but more from wounds, respiratory, digestive and ophthalmological diseases. This is the first comparison of postearthquake diagnoses with baseline data. Within 2 weeks after the acute phase of an earthquake, respiratory, digestive and ophthalmological problems will emerge to the prejudice of trauma. This fact should be anticipated when composing Foreign Medical Teams and Interagency Emergency Health Kits to be sent to the disaster site.

  19. Characteristics of broadband slow earthquakes explained by a Brownian model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ide, S.; Takeo, A.

    2017-12-01

    Brownian slow earthquake (BSE) model (Ide, 2008; 2010) is a stochastic model for the temporal change of seismic moment release by slow earthquakes, which can be considered as a broadband phenomena including tectonic tremors, low frequency earthquakes, and very low frequency (VLF) earthquakes in the seismological frequency range, and slow slip events in geodetic range. Although the concept of broadband slow earthquake may not have been widely accepted, most of recent observations are consistent with this concept. Then, we review the characteristics of slow earthquakes and how they are explained by BSE model. In BSE model, the characteristic size of slow earthquake source is represented by a random variable, changed by a Gaussian fluctuation added at every time step. The model also includes a time constant, which divides the model behavior into short- and long-time regimes. In nature, the time constant corresponds to the spatial limit of tremor/SSE zone. In the long-time regime, the seismic moment rate is constant, which explains the moment-duration scaling law (Ide et al., 2007). For a shorter duration, the moment rate increases with size, as often observed for VLF earthquakes (Ide et al., 2008). The ratio between seismic energy and seismic moment is constant, as shown in Japan, Cascadia, and Mexico (Maury et al., 2017). The moment rate spectrum has a section of -1 slope, limited by two frequencies corresponding to the above time constant and the time increment of the stochastic process. Such broadband spectra have been observed for slow earthquakes near the trench axis (Kaneko et al., 2017). This spectrum also explains why we can obtain VLF signals by stacking broadband seismograms relative to tremor occurrence (e.g., Takeo et al., 2010; Ide and Yabe, 2014). The fluctuation in BSE model can be non-Gaussian, as far as the variance is finite, as supported by the central limit theorem. Recent observations suggest that tremors and LFEs are spatially characteristic

  20. Accelerated Seismic Release and Related Aspects of Seismicity Patterns on Earthquake Faults

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ben-Zion, Y.; Lyakhovsky, V.

    2001-05-01

    Observational studies indicate that large earthquakes are sometimes preceded by phases of accelerated seismic release (ASR) characterized by cumulative Benioff strain following a power law time-to-failure relation with a term (tf - t)m, where tf is the failure time of the large event and observed values of m are close to 0.3. We discuss properties of ASR and related aspects of seismicity patterns associated with several theoretical frameworks, with a focus on models of heterogeneous faults in continuum solids. Using stress and earthquake histories simulated by the model of Ben-Zion (1996) for a discrete fault with quenched heterogeneities in a 3D elastic half space, we show that large model earthquakes are associated with non-repeating cyclical establishment and destruction of long-range stress correlations, accompanied by non-stationary cumulative Benioff strain release. We then analyze results associated with a regional lithospheric model consisting of a seismogenic upper crust governed by the damage rheology of Lyakhovsky et al. (1997) over a viscoelastic substrate. We demonstrate analytically for a simplified 1D case that the employed damage rheology leads to a singular power law equation for strain proportional to (tf - t)-1/3, and a non-singular power law relation for cumulative Benioff strain proportional to (tf - t)1/3. A simple approximate generalization of the latter for regional cumulative Benioff strain is obtained by adding to the result a linear function of time representing a stationary background release. To go beyond the analytical expectations, we examine results generated by various realizations of the regional lithospheric model producing seismicity following the characteristic frequency-size statistics, Gutenberg-Richter power law distribution, and mode switching activity. We find that phases of ASR exist only when the seismicity preceding a given large event has broad frequency-size statistics. In such cases the simulated ASR phases can be

  1. Statistical relations among earthquake magnitude, surface rupture length, and surface fault displacement

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bonilla, M.G.; Mark, R.K.; Lienkaemper, J.J.

    1984-01-01

    In order to refine correlations of surface-wave magnitude, fault rupture length at the ground surface, and fault displacement at the surface by including the uncertainties in these variables, the existing data were critically reviewed and a new data base was compiled. Earthquake magnitudes were redetermined as necessary to make them as consistent as possible with the Gutenberg methods and results, which necessarily make up much of the data base. Measurement errors were estimated for the three variables for 58 moderate to large shallow-focus earthquakes. Regression analyses were then made utilizing the estimated measurement errors. The regression analysis demonstrates that the relations among the variables magnitude, length, and displacement are stochastic in nature. The stochastic variance, introduced in part by incomplete surface expression of seismogenic faulting, variation in shear modulus, and regional factors, dominates the estimated measurement errors. Thus, it is appropriate to use ordinary least squares for the regression models, rather than regression models based upon an underlying deterministic relation with the variance resulting from measurement errors. Significant differences exist in correlations of certain combinations of length, displacement, and magnitude when events are qrouped by fault type or by region, including attenuation regions delineated by Evernden and others. Subdivision of the data results in too few data for some fault types and regions, and for these only regressions using all of the data as a group are reported. Estimates of the magnitude and the standard deviation of the magnitude of a prehistoric or future earthquake associated with a fault can be made by correlating M with the logarithms of rupture length, fault displacement, or the product of length and displacement. Fault rupture area could be reliably estimated for about 20 of the events in the data set. Regression of MS on rupture area did not result in a marked improvement

  2. Variations in rupture process with recurrence interval in a repeated small earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vidale, J.E.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Cole, A.; Marone, Chris

    1994-01-01

    In theory and in laboratory experiments, friction on sliding surfaces such as rock, glass and metal increases with time since the previous episode of slip. This time dependence is a central pillar of the friction laws widely used to model earthquake phenomena. On natural faults, other properties, such as rupture velocity, porosity and fluid pressure, may also vary with the recurrence interval. Eighteen repetitions of the same small earthquake, separated by intervals ranging from a few days to several years, allow us to test these laboratory predictions in situ. The events with the longest time since the previous earthquake tend to have about 15% larger seismic moment than those with the shortest intervals, although this trend is weak. In addition, the rupture durations of the events with the longest recurrence intervals are more than a factor of two shorter than for the events with the shortest intervals. Both decreased duration and increased friction are consistent with progressive fault healing during the time of stationary contact.In theory and in laboratory experiments, friction on sliding surfaces such as rock, glass and metal increases with time since the previous episode of slip. This time dependence is a central pillar of the friction laws widely used to model earthquake phenomena. On natural faults, other properties, such as rupture velocity, porosity and fluid pressure, may also vary with the recurrence interval. Eighteen repetitions of the same small earthquake, separated by intervals ranging from a few days to several years, allow us to test these laboratory predictions in situ. The events with the longest time since the previous earthquake tend to have about 15% larger seismic moment than those with the shortest intervals, although this trend is weak. In addition, the rupture durations of the events with the longest recurrence intervals are more than a factor of two shorter than for the events with the shortest intervals. Both decreased duration and

  3. Extending earthquakes' reach through cascading.

    PubMed

    Marsan, David; Lengliné, Olivier

    2008-02-22

    Earthquakes, whatever their size, can trigger other earthquakes. Mainshocks cause aftershocks to occur, which in turn activate their own local aftershock sequences, resulting in a cascade of triggering that extends the reach of the initial mainshock. A long-lasting difficulty is to determine which earthquakes are connected, either directly or indirectly. Here we show that this causal structure can be found probabilistically, with no a priori model nor parameterization. Large regional earthquakes are found to have a short direct influence in comparison to the overall aftershock sequence duration. Relative to these large mainshocks, small earthquakes collectively have a greater effect on triggering. Hence, cascade triggering is a key component in earthquake interactions.

  4. Differential energy radiation from two earthquakes in Japan with identical Mw: The Kyushu 1996 and Tottori 2000 earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Choy, G.L.; Boatwright, J.

    2009-01-01

    We examine two closely located earthquakes in Japan that had identical moment magnitudes Mw but significantly different energy magnitudes Me. We use teleseismic data from the Global Seismograph Network and strong-motion data from the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention's K-Net to analyze the 19 October 1996 Kyushu earthquake (Mw 6.7, Me 6.6) and the 6 October 2000 Tottori earthquake (Mw 6.7, Me 7.4). To obtain regional estimates of radiated energy ES we apply a spectral technique to regional (<200 km) waveforms that are dominated by S and Lg waves. For the thrust-fault Kyushu earthquake, we estimate an average regional attenuation Q(f) 230f0:65. For the strike-slip Tottori earthquake, the average regional attenuation is Q(f) 180f0:6. These attenuation functions are similar to those derived from studies of both California and Japan earthquakes. The regional estimate of ES for the Kyushu earthquake, 3:8 ?? 1014 J, is significantly smaller than that for the Tottori earthquake, ES 1:3 ?? 1015 J. These estimates correspond well with the teleseismic estimates of 3:9 ?? 1014 J and 1:8 ?? 1015 J, respectively. The apparent stress (Ta = ??Es/M0 with ?? equal to rigidity) for the Kyushu earthquake is 4 times smaller than the apparent stress for the Tottori earthquake. In terms of the fault maturity model, the significantly greater release of energy by the strike-slip Tottori earthquake can be related to strong deformation in an immature intraplate setting. The relatively lower energy release of the thrust-fault Kyushu earthquake can be related to rupture on mature faults at a subduction environment. The consistence between teleseismic and regional estimates of ES is particularly significant as teleseismic data for computing ES are routinely available for all large earthquakes whereas often there are no near-field data.

  5. Advances in analysis of pre-earthquake thermal anomalies by analyzing IR satellite data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouzounov, D.; Bryant, N.; Filizzola, C.; Pergola, N.; Taylor, P.; Tramutoli, V.

    Presented work addresses the possible relationship between tectonic stress, electro-chemical and thermodynamic processes in the atmosphere and increasing infrared (IR) flux as part of a larger family of electromagnetic (EM) phenomena related to earthquake activity. Thermal infra-red (TIR) surveys performed by polar orbiting (NOAA/AVHRR, MODIS) and geosynchronous weather satellites (GOES, METEOSAT) seems to indicate the appearance (from days to weeks before the event) of "anomalous" space-time TIR transients associated with the place (epicentral area, linear structures and fault systems) and the time of occurrence of a number of major earthquakes with M>5 and focal depths no deeper than 50km. As Earth emitted in 8-14 microns range the TIR signal measured from satellite strongly vary depending on meteorological conditions and other factors (space-time changes in atmospheric transmittance, time/season, solar and satellite zenithal angles and etc) independent from seismic activity, a preliminary definition of "anomalous TIR signal" should be given. To provide reliable discrimination of thermal anomalous area from the natural events (seasonal changes, local morphology) new robust approach (RAT) has been recently proposed (and successfully applied in the field of the monitoring of the major environmental risks) that permits to give a statistically based definition of thermal info-red (TIR) anomaly and reduce of false events detection. New techniques also were specifically developed to assure the precise co-registration of all satellite scenes and permit accurate time-series analysis of satellite observations. As final results we present examples of most recent 2000/2004 worldwide strong earthquakes and the techniques used to capture the tracks of thermal emission mid-IR anomalies and methodology for practical future use of such phenomena in the early warning systems.

  6. Causal relations among events and states in dynamic geographical phenomena

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Zhaoqiang; Feng, Xuezhi; Xuan, Wenling; Chen, Xiuwan

    2007-06-01

    There is only a static state of the real world to be recorded in conventional geographical information systems. However, there is not only static information but also dynamic information in geographical phenomena. So that how to record the dynamic information and reveal the relations among dynamic information is an important issue in a spatio-temporal information system. From an ontological perspective, we can initially divide the spatio-temporal entities in the world into continuants and occurrents. Continuant entities endure through some extended (although possibly very short) interval of time (e.g., houses, roads, cities, and real-estate). Occurrent entities happen and are then gone (e.g., a house repair job, road construction project, urban expansion, real-estate transition). From an information system perspective, continuants and occurrents that have a unique identity in the system are referred to as objects and events, respectively. And the change is represented implicitly by static snapshots in current spatial temporal information systems. In the previous models, the objects can be considered as the fundamental components of the system, and the change is modeled by considering time-varying attributes of these objects. In the spatio-temporal database, the temporal information that is either interval or instant is involved and the underlying data structures and indexes for temporal are considerable investigated. However, there is the absence of explicit ways of considering events, which affect the attributes of objects or the state. So the research issue of this paper focuses on how to model events in conceptual models of dynamic geographical phenomena and how to represent the causal relations among events and the objects or states. Firstly, the paper reviews the conceptual modeling in a temporal GIS by researchers. Secondly, this paper discusses the spatio-temporal entities: objects and events. Thirdly, this paper investigates the causal relations amongst

  7. Retardations in fault creep rates before local moderate earthquakes along the San Andreas fault system, central California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burford, R.O.

    1988-01-01

    Records of shallow aseismic slip (fault creep) obtained along parts of the San Andreas and Calaveras faults in central California demonstrate that significant changes in creep rates often have been associated with local moderate earthquakes. An immediate postearthquake increase followed by gradual, long-term decay back to a previous background rate is generally the most obvious earthquake effect on fault creep. This phenomenon, identified as aseismic afterslip, usually is characterized by above-average creep rates for several months to a few years. In several cases, minor step-like movements, called coseismic slip events, have occurred at or near the times of mainshocks. One extreme case of coseismic slip, recorded at Cienega Winery on the San Andreas fault 17.5 km southeast of San Juan Bautista, consisted of 11 mm of sudden displacement coincident with earthquakes of ML=5.3 and ML=5.2 that occurred 2.5 minutes apart on 9 April 1961. At least one of these shocks originated on the main fault beneath the winery. Creep activity subsequently stopped at the winery for 19 months, then gradually returned to a nearly steady rate slightly below the previous long-term average. The phenomena mentioned above can be explained in terms of simple models consisting of relatively weak material along shallow reaches of the fault responding to changes in load imposed by sudden slip within the underlying seismogenic zone. In addition to coseismic slip and afterslip phenomena, however, pre-earthquake retardations in creep rates also have been observed. Onsets of significant, persistent decreases in creep rates have occurred at several sites 12 months or more before the times of moderate earthquakes. A 44-month retardation before the 1979 ML=5.9 Coyote Lake earthquake on the Calaveras fault was recorded at the Shore Road creepmeter site 10 km northwest of Hollister. Creep retardation on the San Andreas fault near San Juan Bautista has been evident in records from one creepmeter site for

  8. Retardations in fault creep rates before local moderate earthquakes along the San Andreas fault system, central California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burford, Robert O.

    1988-06-01

    Records of shallow aseismic slip (fault creep) obtained along parts of the San Andreas and Calaveras faults in central California demonstrate that significant changes in creep rates often have been associated with local moderate earthquakes. An immediate postearthquake increase followed by gradual, long-term decay back to a previous background rate is generally the most obvious earthquake effect on fault creep. This phenomenon, identified as aseismic afterslip, usually is characterized by above-average creep rates for several months to a few years. In several cases, minor step-like movements, called coseismic slip events, have occurred at or near the times of mainshocks. One extreme case of coseismic slip, recorded at Cienega Winery on the San Andreas fault 17.5 km southeast of San Juan Bautista, consisted of 11 mm of sudden displacement coincident with earthquakes of M L =5.3 and M L =5.2 that occurred 2.5 minutes apart on 9 April 1961. At least one of these shocks originated on the main fault beneath the winery. Creep activity subsequently stopped at the winery for 19 months, then gradually returned to a nearly steady rate slightly below the previous long-term average. The phenomena mentioned above can be explained in terms of simple models consisting of relatively weak material along shallow reaches of the fault responding to changes in load imposed by sudden slip within the underlying seismogenic zone. In addition to coseismic slip and afterslip phenomena, however, pre-earthquake retardations in creep rates also have been observed. Onsets of significant, persistent decreases in creep rates have occurred at several sites 12 months or more before the times of moderate earthquakes. A 44-month retardation before the 1979 M L =5.9 Coyote Lake earthquake on the Calaveras fault was recorded at the Shore Road creepmeter site 10 km northwest of Hollister. Creep retardation on the San Andreas fault near San Juan Bautista has been evident in records from one creepmeter

  9. The Cascadia Subduction Zone and related subduction systems: seismic structure, intraslab earthquakes and processes, and earthquake hazards

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kirby, Stephen H.; Wang, Kelin; Dunlop, Susan

    2002-01-01

    The following report is the principal product of an international workshop titled “Intraslab Earthquakes in the Cascadia Subduction System: Science and Hazards” and was sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey, the Geological Survey of Canada and the University of Victoria. This meeting was held at the University of Victoria’s Dunsmuir Lodge, Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada on September 18–21, 2000 and brought 46 participants from the U.S., Canada, Latin America and Japan. This gathering was organized to bring together active research investigators in the science of subduction and intraslab earthquake hazards. Special emphasis was given to “warm-slab” subduction systems, i.e., those systems involving young oceanic lithosphere subducting at moderate to slow rates, such as the Cascadia system in the U.S. and Canada, and the Nankai system in Japan. All the speakers and poster presenters provided abstracts of their presentations that were a made available in an abstract volume at the workshop. Most of the authors subsequently provided full articles or extended abstracts for this volume on the topics that they discussed at the workshop. Where updated versions were not provided, the original workshop abstracts have been included. By organizing this workshop and assembling this volume, our aim is to provide a global perspective on the science of warm-slab subduction, to thereby advance our understanding of internal slab processes and to use this understanding to improve appraisals of the hazards associated with large intraslab earthquakes in the Cascadia system. These events have been the most frequent and damaging earthquakes in western Washington State over the last century. As if to underscore this fact, just six months after this workshop was held, the magnitude 6.8 Nisqually earthquake occurred on February 28th, 2001 at a depth of about 55 km in the Juan de Fuca slab beneath the southern Puget Sound region of western Washington. The Governor

  10. Earthquakes, November-December 1991

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Person, W.J.

    1992-01-01

    There were three major earthquakes (7.0-7.9) during the last two months of the year: a magntidue 7.0 on November 19 in Columbia, a magnitude 7.4 in the Kuril Islands on December 22, and a magnitude 7.1 in the South Sandwich Islands on December 27. Earthquake-related deaths were reported in Colombia, Yemen, and Iran. there were no significant earthquakes in the United States during this reporting period. 

  11. Believing in paranormal phenomena: relations to asymmetry of body and brain.

    PubMed

    Schulter, Günter; Papousek, Ilona

    2008-01-01

    The goal of this study was to investigate the possible relationship between established measures of body and brain asymmetries and individual differences in paranormal beliefs. In addition to behavioural measures of cerebral laterality, measures of facial features and finger length were taken to calculate body asymmetry scores and indicators of fluctuating asymmetry (average absolute differences between left and right body features). Both the direction and degree of laterality measures were used. In addition to that, quantitative measures of inconsistency of cerebral lateralization were obtained. Results indicated that a stronger belief in paranormal phenomena was associated with fluctuating asymmetry of finger length, and that this aspect of body asymmetry may be related to greater intraindividual variability in the degree of 'atypical' functional lateralization. This intraindividual variability index, in turn, significantly predicted strength of belief in the paranormal. Belief in the paranormal was also higher in women than men and it was negatively correlated with the education level. In sum, these findings suggest that a part of the variance of strength of belief in paranormal phenomena can be explained by patterns of functional hemispheric asymmetry that may be related to perturbations during fetal development.

  12. Scaling in geology: landforms and earthquakes.

    PubMed Central

    Turcotte, D L

    1995-01-01

    Landforms and earthquakes appear to be extremely complex; yet, there is order in the complexity. Both satisfy fractal statistics in a variety of ways. A basic question is whether the fractal behavior is due to scale invariance or is the signature of a broadly applicable class of physical processes. Both landscape evolution and regional seismicity appear to be examples of self-organized critical phenomena. A variety of statistical models have been proposed to model landforms, including diffusion-limited aggregation, self-avoiding percolation, and cellular automata. Many authors have studied the behavior of multiple slider-block models, both in terms of the rupture of a fault to generate an earthquake and in terms of the interactions between faults associated with regional seismicity. The slider-block models exhibit a remarkably rich spectrum of behavior; two slider blocks can exhibit low-order chaotic behavior. Large numbers of slider blocks clearly exhibit self-organized critical behavior. Images Fig. 6 PMID:11607562

  13. Precise Relative Earthquake Depth Determination Using Array Processing Techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Florez, M. A.; Prieto, G. A.

    2014-12-01

    The mechanism for intermediate depth and deep earthquakes is still under debate. The temperatures and pressures are above the point where ordinary fractures ought to occur. Key to constraining this mechanism is the precise determination of hypocentral depth. It is well known that using depth phases allows for significant improvement in event depth determination, however routinely and systematically picking such phases for teleseismic or regional arrivals is problematic due to poor signal-to-noise ratios around the pP and sP phases. To overcome this limitation we have taken advantage of the additional information carried by seismic arrays. We have used beamforming and velocity spectral analysis techniques to precise measure pP-P and sP-P differential travel times. These techniques are further extended to achieve subsample accuracy and to allow for events where the signal-to-noise ratio is close to or even less than 1.0. The individual estimates obtained at different subarrays for a pair of earthquakes can be combined using a double-difference technique in order to precisely map seismicity in regions where it is tightly clustered. We illustrate these methods using data from the recent M 7.9 Alaska earthquake and its aftershocks, as well as data from the Bucaramanga nest in northern South America, arguably the densest and most active intermediate-depth earthquake nest in the world.

  14. Improvement of Earthquake Epicentral Locations Using T-Phases: Testing by Comparison With Surface Wave Relative Event Locations

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2001-10-01

    deployment of 51 ocean -bottom seismometers (OBS) on the seafloor spanning 800 km across the East Pacific Rise provides a unique opportunity to test the...aftershock sequence of earthquakes at the northern end of the Easter microplate . In addition, for the larger earthquakes, we can compare relative... ocean -bottom seismometers OBJECTIVES The objectives of this research are To explore the synergy between hydroacoustic and seismic techniques

  15. Near field earthquake sources scenarios and related tsunamis on the French-Italian Riviera (Western Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larroque, Christophe; Ioualalen, Mansour; Scotti, Oona

    2014-05-01

    The large system of thrust faults recently evidenced at the foot of the northern Ligurian margin accommodates the inversion of this ancient passive margin since at least 5 Ma (Messinian times). At depth, these faults are certainly connected to a major northward dipping thrust that accounts for the major part of the seismicity in the northern Ligurian Sea. The deformations of the Quaternary sediments along the faults attest to a compressive tectonic regime consistent with the focal mechanisms of earthquakes. The major event in the area (the Ligurian earthquake, 1887/02/23, Mw 6.7-6.9 and the related tsunami) could result from the activation of part of the Ligurian thrust. Starting from the Ligurian earthquake source characteristics (strike: N55°E, dip: 16°N, length: 35 km, width: 17 km, co-seismic slip: 1.5 m, focal depth: 15 km, Mw 6.9), we have built an exhaustive set of earthquake scenarios involving the 80 km long Ligurian thrust. (1) Two of these earthquake scenarios ruptured respectively the eastern (offshore Imperia) and western (offshore Nice) part of the Ligurian thrust. (2) As these scenarios must scan the range of potential events in accordance with the geology, a second group of scenarios tests an 80 km long rupture of the entire Ligurian thrust with different strikes (N55°E and N70°E) and different widths of the faulting surface (17 km and 27 km) and then co-seismic slips of 2 m and 3.3 m, respectively. As the Ligurian coast is a densely populated and industrial area, the vulnerability is high. We want to stress here that we are more concerned with tsunamis triggered by local earthquakes. This is because, considering their arrival times (a few minutes), the risk prevention cannot be handled by existing tsunami warning system. For all scenarios we evaluate the tsunami coastal impact. The spatial distribution of the maximum wave height (MWH) is provided with a tentative identification of the processes that are responsible for it. The predictions

  16. Accelerated Seismic Release and Related Aspects of Seismicity Patterns on Earthquake Faults

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ben-Zion, Y.; Lyakhovsky, V.

    Observational studies indicate that large earthquakes are sometimes preceded by phases of accelerated seismic release (ASR) characterized by cumulative Benioff strain following a power law time-to-failure relation with a term (tf-t)m, where tf is the failure time of the large event and observed values of m are close to 0.3. We discuss properties of ASR and related aspects of seismicity patterns associated with several theoretical frameworks. The subcritical crack growth approach developed to describe deformation on a crack prior to the occurrence of dynamic rupture predicts great variability and low asymptotic values of the exponent m that are not compatible with observed ASR phases. Statistical physics studies assuming that system-size failures in a deforming region correspond to critical phase transitions predict establishment of long-range correlations of dynamic variables and power-law statistics before large events. Using stress and earthquake histories simulated by the model of Ben-Zion (1996) for a discrete fault with quenched heterogeneities in a 3-D elastic half space, we show that large model earthquakes are associated with nonrepeating cyclical establishment and destruction of long-range stress correlations, accompanied by nonstationary cumulative Benioff strain release. We then analyze results associated with a regional lithospheric model consisting of a seismogenic upper crust governed by the damage rheology of Lyakhovskyet al. (1997) over a viscoelastic substrate. We demonstrate analytically for a simplified 1-D case that the employed damage rheology leads to a singular power-law equation for strain proportional to (tf-t)-1/3, and a nonsingular power-law relation for cumulative Benioff strain proportional to (tf-t)1/3. A simple approximate generalization of the latter for regional cumulative Benioff strain is obtained by adding to the result a linear function of time representing a stationary background release. To go beyond the analytical

  17. NRIAG's Effort to Mitigate Earthquake Disasters in Egypt Using GPS and Seismic Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmoud, Salah

    It has been estimated that, during historical time more than 50 million people have lost their lives in earthquakes during ground shaking, such as soil amplification and/or liquefaction, landslides and tsunamis or its immediate aftereffects, as fires. The distribution of population takes generally no account of earthquake risk, at least on a large scale. An earthquake may be large but not destructive, on the other hand, an earthquake may be destructive but not large. The absence of correlation is due to the fact that, great number of other factors entering into consideration: first of all, the location of the earthquake in relation to populated areas, also soil conditions and building constructions. Soil liquefaction has been identified as the underlying phenomenon for many ground failures, settlements and lateral spreads, which are a major cause of damage to soil structures and building foundations in many events. Egypt is suffered a numerous of destructive earthquakes as well as Kalabsha earthquake (1981, Mag 5.4) near Aswan city and the High dam, Dahshour earthquake (1992, Mag 5.9) near Cairo city and Aqaba earthquake (1995, Mag 7.2). As the category of earthquake damage includes all the phenomena related to the direct and indirect damages, the Egyptian authorities do a great effort to mitigate the earthquake disasters. The seismicity especially at the zones of high activity is investigated in details in order to obtain the active source zones not only by the Egyptian National Seismic Network (ENSN) but also by the local seismic networks at, Aswan, Hurghada, Aqaba, Abu Dabbab and Dabbaa. On the other hand the soil condition, soil amplification, soil structure interaction, liquefaction and seismic hazard are carried out in particular the urbanized areas and the region near the source zones. All these parameters are integrated to obtain the Egyptian building code which is valid to construct buildings resist damages and consequently mitigate the earthquake

  18. Scientists Engage South Carolina Community in Earthquake Education and Preparedness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hall, C.; Beutel, E.; Jaume', S.; Levine, N.; Doyle, B.

    2008-12-01

    Scientists at the College of Charleston are working with the state of South Carolina's Emergency Management Division to increase awareness and understanding of earthquake hazards throughout South Carolina. As part of this mission, the SCEEP (South Carolina Earthquake Education and Preparedness) program was formed at the College of Charleston to promote earthquake research, outreach, and education in the state of South Carolina. Working with local, regional, state and federal offices, SCEEP has developed education programs for everyone from professional hazard management teams to formal and informal educators. SCEEP also works with the media to ensure accurate reporting of earthquake and other hazard information and to increase the public's understanding of earthquake science and earthquake seismology. As part of this program, we have developed a series of activities that can be checked out by educators for use in their classrooms and in informal education venues. These activities are designed to provide educators with the information and tools they lack to adequately, informatively, and enjoyably teach about earthquake and earth science. The toolkits contain seven activities meeting a variety of National Education Standards, not only in Science, but also in Geography, Math, Social Studies, Arts Education, History and Language Arts - providing a truly multidisciplinary toolkit for educators. The activities provide information on earthquake myths, seismic waves, elastic rebound, vectors, liquefaction, location of an epicenter, and then finally South Carolina earthquakes. The activities are engaging and inquiry based, implementing proven effective strategies for peaking learners' interest in scientific phenomena. All materials are provided within the toolkit and so it is truly check and go. While the SCEEP team has provided instructions and grade level suggestions for implementing the activity in an educational setting, the educator has full reign on what to showcase

  19. The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks. The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of

  20. Nonlinear phenomena in general relativity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allahyari, Alireza; Firouzjaee, Javad T.; Mansouri, Reza

    2018-04-01

    The perturbation theory plays an important role in studying structure formation in cosmology and post-Newtonian physics, but not all phenomena can be described by the linear perturbation theory. Thus, it is necessary to study exact solutions or higher-order perturbations. Specifically, we study black hole (apparent) horizons and the cosmological event horizon formation in the perturbation theory. We emphasize that in the perturbative regime of the gravitational potential these horizons cannot form in the lower order. Studying the infinite plane metric, we show that, to capture the cosmological constant effect, we need at least a second-order expansion.

  1. Natural phenomena hazards design and evaluation criteria for Department of Energy Facilities

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Not Available

    1994-04-01

    This DOE standard gives design and evaluation criteria for natural phenomena hazards (NPH) effects as guidance for implementing the NPH mitigation requirements of DOE 5480.28. Goal of the criteria is to assure that DOE facilities can withstand the effects of earthquakes, extreme winds, tornadoes, flooding, etc. They apply to the design of new facilities and the evaluation of existing facilities; they may also be used for modification and upgrading of the latter.

  2. OMG Earthquake! Can Twitter improve earthquake response?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Earle, P. S.; Guy, M.; Ostrum, C.; Horvath, S.; Buckmaster, R. A.

    2009-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public, text messages, can augment its earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. The goal is to gather near real-time, earthquake-related messages (tweets) and provide geo-located earthquake detections and rough maps of the corresponding felt areas. Twitter and other social Internet technologies are providing the general public with anecdotal earthquake hazard information before scientific information has been published from authoritative sources. People local to an event often publish information within seconds via these technologies. In contrast, depending on the location of the earthquake, scientific alerts take between 2 to 20 minutes. Examining the tweets following the March 30, 2009, M4.3 Morgan Hill earthquake shows it is possible (in some cases) to rapidly detect and map the felt area of an earthquake using Twitter responses. Within a minute of the earthquake, the frequency of “earthquake” tweets rose above the background level of less than 1 per hour to about 150 per minute. Using the tweets submitted in the first minute, a rough map of the felt area can be obtained by plotting the tweet locations. Mapping the tweets from the first six minutes shows observations extending from Monterey to Sacramento, similar to the perceived shaking region mapped by the USGS “Did You Feel It” system. The tweets submitted after the earthquake also provided (very) short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking. Accurately assessing the potential and robustness of a Twitter-based system is difficult because only tweets spanning the previous seven days can be searched, making a historical study impossible. We have, however, been archiving tweets for several months, and it is clear that significant limitations do exist. The main drawback is the lack of quantitative information

  3. Earthquakes March-April 1992

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Person, Waverly J.

    1992-01-01

    The months of March and April were quite active seismically speaking. There was one major earthquake (7.0Earthquake-related deaths were reported in Iran, Costa Rica, Turkey, and Germany.

  4. Ionospheric anomalies detected by ionosonde and possibly related to crustal earthquakes in Greece

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perrone, Loredana; De Santis, Angelo; Abbattista, Cristoforo; Alfonsi, Lucilla; Amoruso, Leonardo; Carbone, Marianna; Cesaroni, Claudio; Cianchini, Gianfranco; De Franceschi, Giorgiana; De Santis, Anna; Di Giovambattista, Rita; Marchetti, Dedalo; Pavòn-Carrasco, Francisco J.; Piscini, Alessandro; Spogli, Luca; Santoro, Francesca

    2018-03-01

    Ionosonde data and crustal earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 6.0 observed in Greece during the 2003-2015 period were examined to check if the relationships obtained earlier between precursory ionospheric anomalies and earthquakes in Japan and central Italy are also valid for Greek earthquakes. The ionospheric anomalies are identified on the observed variations of the sporadic E-layer parameters (h'Es, foEs) and foF2 at the ionospheric station of Athens. The corresponding empirical relationships between the seismo-ionospheric disturbances and the earthquake magnitude and the epicentral distance are obtained and found to be similar to those previously published for other case studies. The large lead times found for the ionospheric anomalies occurrence may confirm a rather long earthquake preparation period. The possibility of using the relationships obtained for earthquake prediction is finally discussed.

  5. Media exposure related to the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake predicted probable PTSD among Chinese adolescents in Kunming, China: A longitudinal study.

    PubMed

    Yeung, Nelson C Y; Lau, Joseph T F; Yu, Nancy Xiaonan; Zhang, Jianping; Xu, Zhening; Choi, Kai Chow; Zhang, Qi; Mak, Winnie W S; Lui, Wacy W S

    2018-03-01

    This study examined the prevalence and the psychosocial predictors of probable PTSD among Chinese adolescents in Kunming (approximately 444 miles from the epicenter), China, who were indirectly exposed to the Sichuan Earthquake in 2008. Using a longitudinal study design, primary and secondary school students (N = 3577) in Kunming completed questionnaires at baseline (June 2008) and 6 months afterward (December 2008) in classroom settings. Participants' exposure to earthquake-related imagery and content, perceptions and emotional reactions related to the earthquake, and posttraumatic stress symptoms were measured. Univariate and forward stepwise multivariable logistic regression models were fit to identify significant predictors of probable PTSD at the 6-month follow-up. Prevalences of probable PTSD (with a Children's Revised Impact of Event Scale score ≥30) among the participants at baseline and 6-month follow-up were 16.9% and 11.1% respectively. In the multivariable analysis, those who were frequently exposed to distressful imagery had experienced at least two types of negative life events, perceived that teachers were distressed due to the earthquake, believed that the earthquake resulted from damages to the ecosystem, and felt apprehensive and emotionally disturbed due to the earthquake reported a higher risk of probable PTSD at 6-month follow-up (all ps < .05). Exposure to distressful media images, emotional responses, and disaster-related perceptions at baseline were found to be predictive of probable PTSD several months after indirect exposure to the event. Parents, teachers, and the mass media should be aware of the negative impacts of disaster-related media exposure on adolescents' psychological health. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  6. Empirical relations to convert magnitudes of the earthquake catalogue for the north western of Algeria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belayadi, Ilyes; Bezzeghoud, Mourad; Fontiela, João; Nadji, Amansour

    2017-04-01

    North Algeria is one of the most seismically active regions on the western Mediterranean basin and it is related with the boundaries of the Eurasian and Nubian plates. We compiled an earthquake catalogue for the north western of Algeria, within the area -2°W-1°E and 34°N-37°N for the time span 1790 - 2016. To compile the earthquake catalogue we merge all available catalogues either national and international. Then we remove all duplicates and fake earthquakes. The lower level of the catalogue entries is set at M = 2.5. Nevertheless, the magnitudes reported on the catalogue are ML, Ms, Mb, Mw and macroseismic intensity. Thus, we develop new empirical relations to calculate the Mw from the different magnitudes and intensity suitable to the seismic hazard and geodynamic context of North Algeria. Acknowledgements: Ilyes Belayadi is funded entirely by the University of Oran 2 Mohamed Ben Ahmed (Algeria). This work is co-financed by the European Union through the European Regional Development Fund under COMPETE 2020 (Operational Program for Competitiveness and Internationalization) through the ICT project (UID / GEO / 04683/2013) under the reference POCI-01-0145 -FEDER-007690.

  7. Developing a new perspective to study the health of survivors of Sichuan earthquakes in China: a study on the effect of post-earthquake rescue policies on survivors’ health-related quality of life

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Sichuan is a province in China with an extensive history of earthquakes. Recent earthquakes, including the Lushan earthquake in 2013, have resulted in thousands of people losing their homes and their families. However, there is a research gap on the efficiency of government support policies. Therefore, this study develops a new perspective to study the health of earthquake survivors, based on the effect of post-earthquake rescue policies on health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of survivors of the Sichuan earthquake. Methods This study uses data from a survey conducted in five hard-hit counties (Wenchuan, Qingchuan, Mianzhu, Lushan, and Dujiangyan) in Sichuan in 2013. A total of 2,000 questionnaires were distributed, and 1,672 were returned; the response rate was 83.6%. Results Results of the rescue policies scale and Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 36 (SF-36) scale passed the reliability test. The confirmatory factor analysis model showed that the physical component summary (PCS) directly affected the mental component summary (MCS). The results of structural equation model regarding the effects of rescue policies on HRQOL showed that the path coefficients of six policies (education, orphans, employment, poverty, legal, and social rescue policies) to the PCS of survivors were all positive and passed the test of significance. Finally, although only the path coefficient of the educational rescue policy to the MCS of survivors was positive and passed the test of significance, the other five policies affected the MCS indirectly through the PCS. Conclusions The general HRQOL of survivors is not ideal; the survivors showed a low satisfaction with the post-earthquake rescue policies. Further, the six post-earthquake rescue policies significantly improved the HRQOL of survivors and directly affected the promotion of the PCS of survivors. Aside from the educational rescue policy, all other policies affected the MCS indirectly through the PCS. This finding

  8. Developing a new perspective to study the health of survivors of Sichuan earthquakes in China: a study on the effect of post-earthquake rescue policies on survivors' health-related quality of life.

    PubMed

    Liang, Ying; Wang, Xiukun

    2013-10-29

    Sichuan is a province in China with an extensive history of earthquakes. Recent earthquakes, including the Lushan earthquake in 2013, have resulted in thousands of people losing their homes and their families. However, there is a research gap on the efficiency of government support policies. Therefore, this study develops a new perspective to study the health of earthquake survivors, based on the effect of post-earthquake rescue policies on health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of survivors of the Sichuan earthquake. This study uses data from a survey conducted in five hard-hit counties (Wenchuan, Qingchuan, Mianzhu, Lushan, and Dujiangyan) in Sichuan in 2013. A total of 2,000 questionnaires were distributed, and 1,672 were returned; the response rate was 83.6%. Results of the rescue policies scale and Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 36 (SF-36) scale passed the reliability test. The confirmatory factor analysis model showed that the physical component summary (PCS) directly affected the mental component summary (MCS). The results of structural equation model regarding the effects of rescue policies on HRQOL showed that the path coefficients of six policies (education, orphans, employment, poverty, legal, and social rescue policies) to the PCS of survivors were all positive and passed the test of significance. Finally, although only the path coefficient of the educational rescue policy to the MCS of survivors was positive and passed the test of significance, the other five policies affected the MCS indirectly through the PCS. The general HRQOL of survivors is not ideal; the survivors showed a low satisfaction with the post-earthquake rescue policies. Further, the six post-earthquake rescue policies significantly improved the HRQOL of survivors and directly affected the promotion of the PCS of survivors. Aside from the educational rescue policy, all other policies affected the MCS indirectly through the PCS. This finding indicates relatively large differences in

  9. Observing pre-earthquake features in the Earth atmosphere-ionosphere environment associated with 2017 Tehuantepec and Puebla earthquakes in Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouzounov, D.; Pulinets, S. A.; Guiliani, G.; Hernandez-Pajares, M.; Garcia-Rigo, A.; Petrov, L.; Taylor, P. T.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kafatos, M.

    2017-12-01

    We are presenting a multi parameter study of lithosphere/atmosphere /ionosphere transient phenomena observed in advance of the M8.2 Tehuantepec and M7.1Puebla earthquakes, the largest and most damaging earthquakes ever recorded in Mexico. We are collecting data from four instruments which recorded hourly and daily: 1.Ground Radon variations (Gamma network in Southern CA) ; 2. Outgoing long-wavelength radiation (OLR obtained from NPOES) on the top of the atmosphere (TOA), 3. Atmospheric chemical potential (ACP) obtained from NASA assimilation models and 4. Electron density variations in the ionosphere via GPS Total Electron Content (GPS/TEC). The September M8.2 earthquake was situated about 3200 kilometers south of two-radon monitoring stations in Orange, Southern California. Real time hourly data show a sharp increase on both sensors (160 kilometers apart) on Sept 2 ( 6 days prior to the M8.2 of 09.08.2017 ) and second anomaly appeared again on Sept 11 ( 7 days prior to the M7.1 of 09.19.2017). Those increases in radon coincide (with some delay) with an increase in the atmospheric chemical potential (on Sept. 03 and10 respectively) measured near the epicentral area from satellite data. And subsequently at the end of August there was an increase of infrared radiation observed which was associated with the acceleration of OLR at the TOA observed from NOAA polar orbit satellites reaching a maximum near the epicenter on Sept 5 and Sept 17. The GPS/Total Electron Content data indicated an increase of electron concentration in ionosphere on Sep 7 and Sep 18, 1-2 days before both earthquakes. Before the earthquake ground and satellite data both show a synergetic anomalous trend, a week before the M8.2 Tehuantepec of 09.08.2017 and continuously up to the Puebla earthquake(M7.1 of 09.19.2017) , although the radon variations were observed far from both epicentral areas. We examined the possible correlation between different pre-earthquake signals in the frame of a

  10. MyShake: Smartphone-based detection and analysis of Oklahoma earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kong, Q.; Allen, R. M.; Schreier, L.

    2016-12-01

    MyShake is a global smartphone seismic network that harnesses the power of crowdsourcing (myshake.berkeley.edu). It uses the accelerometer data from phones to detect earthquake-like motion, and then uploads triggers and waveform data to a server for aggregation of the results. Since the public release in Feb 2016, more than 200,000 android-phone owners have installed the app, and the global network has recorded more than 300 earthquakes. In Oklahoma, there are about 200 active users each day providing enough data for the network to detect earthquakes and for us to perform analysis of the events. MyShake has recorded waveform data for M2.6 to M5.8 earthquakes in the state. For the September 3, 2016, M5.8 earthquake 14 phones detected the event and we can use the waveforms to determine event characteristics. MyShake data provides a location 3.95 km from the ANSS location and a magnitude of 5.7. We can also use MyShake data to estimate a stress drop of 7.4 MPa. MyShake is still a rapidly expanding network that has the ability to grow by thousands of stations/phones in a matter of hours as public interest increases. These initial results suggest that the data will be useful for a variety of scientific studies of induced seismicity phenomena in Oklahoma as well as having the potential to provide earthquake early warning in the future.

  11. From integrated observation of pre-earthquake signals towards physical-based forecasting: A prospective test experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouzounov, D.; Pulinets, S. A.; Tramutoli, V.; Lee, L.; Liu, J. G.; Hattori, K.; Kafatos, M.

    2013-12-01

    We are conducting an integrated study involving multi-parameter observations over different seismo- tectonics regions in our investigation of phenomena preceding major earthquakes. Our approach is based on a systematic analysis of several selected parameters namely: gas discharge; thermal infrared radiation; ionospheric electron concentration; and atmospheric temperature and humidity, which we suppose are associated with earthquake preparation phase. We intended to test in prospective mode the set of geophysical measurements for different regions of active earthquakes and volcanoes. In 2012-13 we established a collaborative framework with the leading projects PRE-EARTHQUAKE (EU) and iSTEP3 (Taiwan) for coordinate measurements and prospective validation over seven test regions: Southern California (USA), Eastern Honshu (Japan), Italy, Turkey, Greece, Taiwan (ROC), Kamchatka and Sakhalin (Russia). The current experiment provided a 'stress test' opportunity to validate the physical based approach in teal -time over regions of high seismicity. Our initial results are: (1) Prospective tests have shown the presence in real time of anomalies in the atmosphere before most of the significant (M>5.5) earthquakes in all regions; (2) False positive rate alarm is different for each region and varying between 50% (Italy, Kamchatka and California) to 25% (Taiwan and Japan) with a significant reduction of false positives when at least two parameters are contemporary used; (3) One of most complex problem, which is still open, was the systematic collection and real-time integration of pre-earthquake observations. Our findings suggest that the physical based short-term forecast is feasible and more tests are needed. We discus the physical concept we used, the future integration of data observations and related developments.

  12. Earthquakes

    MedlinePlus

    ... Search Term(s): Main Content Home Be Informed Earthquakes Earthquakes An earthquake is the sudden, rapid shaking of the earth, ... by the breaking and shifting of underground rock. Earthquakes can cause buildings to collapse and cause heavy ...

  13. Perception of earthquake risk in Taiwan: effects of gender and past earthquake experience.

    PubMed

    Kung, Yi-Wen; Chen, Sue-Huei

    2012-09-01

    This study explored how individuals in Taiwan perceive the risk of earthquake and the relationship of past earthquake experience and gender to risk perception. Participants (n= 1,405), including earthquake survivors and those in the general population without prior direct earthquake exposure, were selected and interviewed through a computer-assisted telephone interviewing procedure using a random sampling and stratification method covering all 24 regions of Taiwan. A factor analysis of the interview data yielded a two-factor structure of risk perception in regard to earthquake. The first factor, "personal impact," encompassed perception of threat and fear related to earthquakes. The second factor, "controllability," encompassed a sense of efficacy of self-protection in regard to earthquakes. The findings indicated prior earthquake survivors and females reported higher scores on the personal impact factor than males and those with no prior direct earthquake experience, although there were no group differences on the controllability factor. The findings support that risk perception has multiple components, and suggest that past experience (survivor status) and gender (female) affect the perception of risk. Exploration of potential contributions of other demographic factors such as age, education, and marital status to personal impact, especially for females and survivors, is discussed. Future research on and intervention program with regard to risk perception are suggested accordingly. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. Regional patterns of earthquake-triggered landslides and their relation to ground motion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meunier, Patrick; Hovius, Niels; Haines, A. John

    2007-10-01

    We have documented patterns of landsliding associated with large earthquakes on three thrust faults: the Northridge earthquake in California, Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, and two earthquakes on the Ramu-Markham fault bounding the Finisterre Mountains of Papua New Guinea. In each case, landslide densities are shown to be greatest in the area of strongest ground acceleration and to decay with distance from the epicenter. In California and Taiwan, the density of co-seismic landslides is linearly and highly correlated with both the vertical and horizontal components of measured peak ground acceleration. Based on this observation, we derive an expression for the spatial variation of landslide density analogous with regional seismic attenuation laws. In its general form, this expression applies to our three examples, and we determine best fit values for individual cases. Our findings open a window on the construction of shake maps from geomorphic observations for earthquakes in non-instrumented regions.

  15. Temporal-Spatial Pattern of Pre-earthquake Signatures in Atmosphere and Ionosphere Associated with Major Earthquakes in Greece.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calderon, I. S.; Ouzounov, D.; Anagnostopoulos, G. C.; Pulinets, S. A.; Davidenko, D.; Karastathis, V. K.; Kafatos, M.

    2015-12-01

    We are conducting validation studies on atmosphere/ionosphere phenomena preceding major earthquakes in Greece in the last decade and in particular the largest (M6.9) earthquakes that occurred on May 24, 2014 in the Aegean Sea and on February 14, 2008 in South West Peloponisos (Methoni). Our approach is based on monitoring simultaneously a series of different physical parameters from space: Outgoing long-wavelength radiation (OLR) on the top of the atmosphere, electron and electron density variations in the ionosphere via GPS Total Electron Content (GPS/TEC), and ULF radiation and radiation belt electron precipitation (RBEP) accompanied by VLF wave activity into the topside ionosphere. In particular, we analyzed prospectively and retrospectively the temporal and spatial variations of various parameters characterizing the state of the atmosphere and ionosphere several days before the two M6.9 earthquakes. Concerning the Methoni EQ, DEMETER data confirm an almost standard profile before large EQs, with TEC, ULF, VLF and RBEP activity preceding some (four) days the EQ occurrence and silence the day of EQ; furthermore, during the period before the EQ, a progressive concentration of ULF emission centers around the future epicenter was confirmed. Concerning the recent Greek EQ of May 24, 2014, thermal anomaly was discovered 30 days and TEC anomaly 38 hours in advance accordingly. The spatial characteristics of pre-earthquake anomalous behavior were associated with the epicentral region. Our analysis of simultaneous space measurements before the great EQs suggests that they follow a general temporal-spatial pattern, which has been seen in other large EQs worldwide.

  16. Analysis of the enhanced negative correlation between electron density and electron temperature related to earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, X. H.; Zhang, X.; Liu, J.; Zhao, S. F.; Yuan, G. P.

    2015-04-01

    Ionospheric perturbations in plasma parameters have been observed before large earthquakes, but the correlation between different parameters has been less studied in previous research. The present study is focused on the relationship between electron density (Ne) and temperature (Te) observed by the DEMETER (Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions) satellite during local nighttime, in which a positive correlation has been revealed near the equator and a weak correlation at mid- and low latitudes over both hemispheres. Based on this normal background analysis, the negative correlation with the lowest percent in all Ne and Te points is studied before and after large earthquakes at mid- and low latitudes. The multiparameter observations exhibited typical synchronous disturbances before the Chile M8.8 earthquake in 2010 and the Pu'er M6.4 in 2007, and Te varied inversely with Ne over the epicentral areas. Moreover, statistical analysis has been done by selecting the orbits at a distance of 1000 km and ±7 days before and after the global earthquakes. Enhanced negative correlation coefficients lower than -0.5 between Ne and Te are found in 42% of points to be connected with earthquakes. The correlation median values at different seismic levels show a clear decrease with earthquakes larger than 7. Finally, the electric-field-coupling model is discussed; furthermore, a digital simulation has been carried out by SAMI2 (Sami2 is Another Model of the Ionosphere), which illustrates that the external electric field in the ionosphere can strengthen the negative correlation in Ne and Te at a lower latitude relative to the disturbed source due to the effects of the geomagnetic field. Although seismic activity is not the only source to cause the inverse Ne-Te variations, the present results demonstrate one possibly useful tool in seismo-electromagnetic anomaly differentiation, and a comprehensive analysis with multiple parameters helps to

  17. Discovering Coseismic Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances Generated by the 2016 Kaikoura Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, J. D.; Rude, C. M.; Gowanlock, M.; Pankratius, V.

    2017-12-01

    Geophysical events and hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanoes, have been shown to generate traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs). These disturbances can be measured by means of Total Electron Content fluctuations obtained from a network of multifrequency GPS receivers in the MIT Haystack Observatory Madrigal database. Analyzing the response of the ionosphere to such hazards enhances our understanding of natural phenomena and augments our large-scale monitoring capabilities in conjunction with other ground-based sensors. However, it is currently challenging for human investigators to spot and characterize such signatures, or whether a geophysical event has actually occurred, because the ionosphere can be noisy with multiple simultaneous phenomena taking place at the same time. This work therefore explores a systematic pipeline for the ex-post discovery and characterization of TIDs. Our technique starts by geolocating the event and gathering the corresponding data, then checks for potentially conflicting TID sources, and processes the raw total electron content data to generate differential measurements. A Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is applied to evaluate the statistical significance of detected deviations in the differential measurements. We present results from our successful application of this pipeline to the 2016 7.8 Mw Kaikoura earthquake occurring in New Zealand on November 13th. We detect a coseismic TID occurring 8 minutes after the earthquake and propagating towards the equator at 1050 m/s, with a 0.22 peak-to-peak TECu amplitude. Furthermore, the observed waveform exhibits more complex behavior than the expected N-wave for a coseismic TID, which potentially results from the complex multi-fault structure of the earthquake. We acknowledge support from NSF ACI1442997 (PI Pankratius), NASA AISTNNX15AG84G (PI Pankratius), and NSF AGS-1343967 (PI Pankratius), and NSF AGS-1242204 (PI Erickson).

  18. A new strategy for earthquake focal mechanisms using waveform-correlation-derived relative polarities and cluster analysis: Application to the 2014 Long Valley Caldera earthquake swarm

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shelly, David R.; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Hill, David P.

    2016-01-01

    In microseismicity analyses, reliable focal mechanisms can typically be obtained for only a small subset of located events. We address this limitation here, presenting a framework for determining robust focal mechanisms for entire populations of very small events. To achieve this, we resolve relative P and S wave polarities between pairs of waveforms by using their signed correlation coefficients—a by-product of previously performed precise earthquake relocation. We then use cluster analysis to group events with similar patterns of polarities across the network. Finally, we apply a standard mechanism inversion to the grouped data, using either catalog or correlation-derived P wave polarity data sets. This approach has great potential for enhancing analyses of spatially concentrated microseismicity such as earthquake swarms, mainshock-aftershock sequences, and industrial reservoir stimulation or injection-induced seismic sequences. To demonstrate its utility, we apply this technique to the 2014 Long Valley Caldera earthquake swarm. In our analysis, 85% of the events (7212 out of 8494 located by Shelly et al. [2016]) fall within five well-constrained mechanism clusters, more than 12 times the number with network-determined mechanisms. Of the earthquakes we characterize, 3023 (42%) have magnitudes smaller than 0.0. We find that mechanism variations are strongly associated with corresponding hypocentral structure, yet mechanism heterogeneity also occurs where it cannot be resolved by hypocentral patterns, often confined to small-magnitude events. Small (5–20°) rotations between mechanism orientations and earthquake location trends persist when we apply 3-D velocity models and might reflect a geometry of en echelon, interlinked shear, and dilational faulting.

  19. Investigating Lushan Earthquake Victims' Individual Behavior Response and Rescue Organization.

    PubMed

    Kang, Peng; Lv, Yipeng; Deng, Qiangyu; Liu, Yuan; Zhang, Yi; Liu, Xu; Zhang, Lulu

    2017-12-11

    Research concerning the impact of earthquake victims' individual behavior and its association with earthquake-related injuries is lacking. This study examined this relationship along with effectiveness of earthquake rescue measures. The six most severely destroyed townships during the Lushan earthquake were examined; 28 villages and three earthquake victims' settlement camp areas were selected as research areas. Inclusion criteria comprised living in Lushan county for a longtime, living in Lushan county during the 2013 Lushan earthquake, and having one's home destroyed. Earthquake victims with an intellectual disability or communication problems were excluded. The earthquake victims (N (number) = 5165, male = 2396) completed a questionnaire (response rate: 94.7%). Among them, 209 were injured (5.61%). Teachers (p < 0.0001, OR (odds ratios) = 3.33) and medical staff (p = 0.001, OR = 4.35) were more vulnerable to the earthquake than were farmers. Individual behavior was directly related to injuries, such as the first reaction after earthquake and fear. There is an obvious connection between earthquake-related injury and individual behavior characteristics. It is strongly suggested that victims receive mental health support from medical practitioners and the government to minimize negative effects. The initial reaction after an earthquake also played a vital role in victims' trauma; therefore, earthquake-related experience and education may prevent injuries. Self-aid and mutual help played key roles in emergency, medical rescue efforts.

  20. Multi-parameter Observations and Validation of Pre-earthquake Atmospheric Signals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouzounov, D.; Pulinets, S. A.; Hattori, K.; Mogi, T.; Kafatos, M.

    2014-12-01

    We are presenting the latest development in multi-sensors observations of short-term pre-earthquake phenomena preceding major earthquakes. We are exploring the potential of pre-seismic atmospheric and ionospheric signals to alert for large earthquakes. To achieve this, we start validating anomalous ionospheric /atmospheric signals in retrospective and prospective modes. The integrated satellite and terrestrial framework (ISTF) is our method for validation and is based on a joint analysis of several physical and environmental parameters (Satellite thermal infrared radiation (OLR), electron concentration in the ionosphere (GPS/TEC), VHF-bands radio waves, radon/ion activities, air temperature and seismicity patterns) that were found to be associated with earthquakes. The science rationale for multidisciplinary analysis is based on concept Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) [Pulinets and Ouzounov, 2011], which explains the synergy of different geospace processes and anomalous variations, usually named short-term pre-earthquake anomalies. Our validation processes consist in two steps: (1) A continuous retrospective analysis preformed over two different regions with high seismicity- Taiwan and Japan for 2003-2009 The retrospective tests (100+ major earthquakes, M>5.9, Taiwan and Japan) show OLR anomalous behavior before all of these events with no false negatives. False alarm ratio for false positives is less then 25%. (2) Prospective testing using multiple parameters with potential for M5.5+ events. The initial testing shows systematic appearance of atmospheric anomalies in advance (days) to the M5.5+ events for Taiwan and Japan (Honshu and Hokkaido areas). Our initial prospective results suggest that our approach show a systematic appearance of atmospheric anomalies, one to several days prior to the largest earthquakes That feature could be further studied and tested for advancing the multi-sensors detection of pre-earthquake atmospheric signals.

  1. Earthquake forewarning — A multidisciplinary challenge from the ground up to space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freund, Friedemann

    2013-08-01

    Most destructive earthquakes nucleate at between 5-7 km and about 35-40 km depth. Before earthquakes, rocks are subjected to increasing stress. Not every stress increase leads to rupture. To understand pre-earthquake phenomena we note that igneous and high-grade metamorphic rocks contain defects which, upon stressing, release defect electrons in the oxygen anion sublattice, known as positive holes. These charge carriers are highly mobile, able to flow out of stressed rocks into surrounding unstressed rocks. They form electric currents, which emit electromagnetic radiation, sometimes in pulses, sometimes sustained. The arrival of positive holes at the ground-air interface can lead to air ionization, often exclusively positive. Ionized air rising upward can lead to cloud condensation. The upward flow of positive ions can lead to instabilities in the mesosphere, to mesospheric lightning, to changes in the Total Electron Content (TEC) at the lower edge of the ionosphere, and electric field turbulences. Advances in deciphering the earthquake process can only be achieved in a broadly multidisciplinary spirit.

  2. Earthquakes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walter, Edward J.

    1977-01-01

    Presents an analysis of the causes of earthquakes. Topics discussed include (1) geological and seismological factors that determine the effect of a particular earthquake on a given structure; (2) description of some large earthquakes such as the San Francisco quake; and (3) prediction of earthquakes. (HM)

  3. Regional Phenomena of Vertical Deformation in Southern Part of Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarsito, D. A.; Susilo; Andreas, H.; Pradipta, D.; Gumilar, I.

    2018-02-01

    Distribution of present-day horizontal and vertical deformation across the Southern Part of Indonesia at Java, Bali and Nusa Tenggara now days can be determined from continuous and campaign types of GNSS GPS data monitoring. For vertical deformation in this case we use the continuous types since they are give better quality of data consistency compare to campaign type. Continuous Global Positioning System (CGPS) are maintaining by Geospatial Information Agency for more than a decade. The vertical displacements or velocity rates are estimated from time series analysis after multi-baseline GPS processing using GAMIT-GLOBK software with respect to the latest International Terrestrial Reference Frame. The result shows some interesting phenomena where the northern part of research area majority have negative value that may indicate land subsidence with or without tectonic subsidence combination. In the middle part, the uplift phenomena are clearly shown and in the southern part show combine pattern between uplift and subsidence. The impacts of those phenomena would be discuss also in this paper since many population and infrastructure are located in the areas that will need more protection planning to reduce the negative impact such as earthquake and flooding.

  4. Intermediate-term earthquake prediction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Knopoff, L.

    1990-01-01

    The problems in predicting earthquakes have been attacked by phenomenological methods from pre-historic times to the present. The associations of presumed precursors with large earthquakes often have been remarked upon. the difficulty in identifying whether such correlations are due to some chance coincidence or are real precursors is that usually one notes the associations only in the relatively short time intervals before the large events. Only rarely, if ever, is notice taken of whether the presumed precursor is to be found in the rather long intervals that follow large earthquakes, or in fact is absent in these post-earthquake intervals. If there are enough examples, the presumed correlation fails as a precursor in the former case, while in the latter case the precursor would be verified. Unfortunately, the observer is usually not concerned with the 'uniteresting' intervals that have no large earthquakes

  5. Simulating subduction zone earthquakes using discrete element method: a window into elusive source processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blank, D. G.; Morgan, J.

    2017-12-01

    Large earthquakes that occur on convergent plate margin interfaces have the potential to cause widespread damage and loss of life. Recent observations reveal that a wide range of different slip behaviors take place along these megathrust faults, which demonstrate both their complexity, and our limited understanding of fault processes and their controls. Numerical modeling provides us with a useful tool that we can use to simulate earthquakes and related slip events, and to make direct observations and correlations among properties and parameters that might control them. Further analysis of these phenomena can lead to a more complete understanding of the underlying mechanisms that accompany the nucleation of large earthquakes, and what might trigger them. In this study, we use the discrete element method (DEM) to create numerical analogs to subduction megathrusts with heterogeneous fault friction. Displacement boundary conditions are applied in order to simulate tectonic loading, which in turn, induces slip along the fault. A wide range of slip behaviors are observed, ranging from creep to stick slip. We are able to characterize slip events by duration, stress drop, rupture area, and slip magnitude, and to correlate the relationships among these quantities. These characterizations allow us to develop a catalog of rupture events both spatially and temporally, for comparison with slip processes on natural faults.

  6. Tsunami Mapping Related to Local Earthquakes on the French-Italian Riviera (Western Mediterranean)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ioualalen, Mansour; Larroque, Christophe; Scotti, Oona; Daubord, Camille

    2014-07-01

    The Ligurian coast, located at the French-Italian border, is densely populated as well as a touristic area. It is also a location where earthquakes and underwater landslides are recurrent. The nature of the local tsunamigenesis is therefore a legitimate question, because no tsunami warning system can resolve tsunami arrival times of a few minutes, which is the case for the area. As far as the seismicity of the area is concerned, the frequent recurrent earthquakes are generally of moderate magnitude: most of them are lower than M w 5. However, the relatively large M w 6.9 earthquake (Larroque et al., in Geophys J Int, 2012. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05498.x) that occurred on the February 23, 1887, offshore of Imperia (Italian Riviera) is quite emblematic. This unusual event for the region merits a complete study: the quantification of its rupture mechanism is essential (1) to understand the regional active deformation, but also (2) to evaluate its tsunamigenesis potential by deriving relevant rupture scenarios obtained from our knowledge of the event; for that purpose the event is extensively described here. The first point has been the subject of quite a few studies based on the seismotectonics of the area. The last documented approach has been completed by Larroque et al. (Geophys J Int, 2012. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05498.x) who proposed a rupture scenario involving a reverse faulting along a north dipping fault and favoring a M w 6.9 magnitude. In the present paper (1) we study the accuracy of their solutions in relation to the computational grid spacing and the dispersive/nondispersive parameterization, (2) based on an uncertainty on the recorded wave amplitude of the Genoa tide gauge they used, we propose a M w 6.7 earthquake magnitude solution for the event (the kinematics is unchanged), co-existing with the M w 6.9, (3) we evaluate the tsunami coastal impact of the 1887 event, and (4) we test a range of possible ruptures that local faults may

  7. Possible Mechanisms for Generation of Anomalously High PGA During the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavlenko, O. V.

    2017-08-01

    Mechanisms are suggested that could explain anomalously high PGAs (peak ground accelerations) exceeding 1 g recorded during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake ( M w = 9.0). In my previous research, I studied soil behavior during the Tohoku earthquake based on KiK-net vertical array records and revealed its `atypical' pattern: instead of being reduced in the near-source zones as usually observed during strong earthquakes, shear moduli in soil layers increased, indicating soil hardening, and reached their maxima at the moments of the highest intensity of strong motion, then reduced. We could explain this assuming that the soils experienced some additional compression. The observed changes in the shapes of acceleration time histories with distance from the source, such as a decrease of the duration and an increase of the intensity of strong motion, indicate phenomena similar to overlapping of seismic waves and a shock wave generation, which led to the compression of soils. The phenomena reach their maximum in the vicinity of stations FKSH10, TCGH16, and IBRH11, where the highest PGAs were recorded; at larger epicentral distances, PGAs sharply fall. Thus, the occurrence of anomalously high PGAs on the surface can result from the combination of the overlapping of seismic waves at the bottoms of soil layers and their increased amplification by the pre-compressed soils.

  8. Earthquakes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pakiser, Louis C.

    One of a series of general interest publications on science topics, the booklet provides those interested in earthquakes with an introduction to the subject. Following a section presenting an historical look at the world's major earthquakes, the booklet discusses earthquake-prone geographic areas, the nature and workings of earthquakes, earthquake…

  9. Thermal Infrared Anomalies of Several Strong Earthquakes

    PubMed Central

    Wei, Congxin; Guo, Xiao; Qin, Manzhong

    2013-01-01

    In the history of earthquake thermal infrared research, it is undeniable that before and after strong earthquakes there are significant thermal infrared anomalies which have been interpreted as preseismic precursor in earthquake prediction and forecasting. In this paper, we studied the characteristics of thermal radiation observed before and after the 8 great earthquakes with magnitude up to Ms7.0 by using the satellite infrared remote sensing information. We used new types of data and method to extract the useful anomaly information. Based on the analyses of 8 earthquakes, we got the results as follows. (1) There are significant thermal radiation anomalies before and after earthquakes for all cases. The overall performance of anomalies includes two main stages: expanding first and narrowing later. We easily extracted and identified such seismic anomalies by method of “time-frequency relative power spectrum.” (2) There exist evident and different characteristic periods and magnitudes of thermal abnormal radiation for each case. (3) Thermal radiation anomalies are closely related to the geological structure. (4) Thermal radiation has obvious characteristics in abnormal duration, range, and morphology. In summary, we should be sure that earthquake thermal infrared anomalies as useful earthquake precursor can be used in earthquake prediction and forecasting. PMID:24222728

  10. Thermal infrared anomalies of several strong earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Wei, Congxin; Zhang, Yuansheng; Guo, Xiao; Hui, Shaoxing; Qin, Manzhong; Zhang, Ying

    2013-01-01

    In the history of earthquake thermal infrared research, it is undeniable that before and after strong earthquakes there are significant thermal infrared anomalies which have been interpreted as preseismic precursor in earthquake prediction and forecasting. In this paper, we studied the characteristics of thermal radiation observed before and after the 8 great earthquakes with magnitude up to Ms7.0 by using the satellite infrared remote sensing information. We used new types of data and method to extract the useful anomaly information. Based on the analyses of 8 earthquakes, we got the results as follows. (1) There are significant thermal radiation anomalies before and after earthquakes for all cases. The overall performance of anomalies includes two main stages: expanding first and narrowing later. We easily extracted and identified such seismic anomalies by method of "time-frequency relative power spectrum." (2) There exist evident and different characteristic periods and magnitudes of thermal abnormal radiation for each case. (3) Thermal radiation anomalies are closely related to the geological structure. (4) Thermal radiation has obvious characteristics in abnormal duration, range, and morphology. In summary, we should be sure that earthquake thermal infrared anomalies as useful earthquake precursor can be used in earthquake prediction and forecasting.

  11. Are Earthquakes Predictable? A Study on Magnitude Correlations in Earthquake Catalog and Experimental Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stavrianaki, K.; Ross, G.; Sammonds, P. R.

    2015-12-01

    The clustering of earthquakes in time and space is widely accepted, however the existence of correlations in earthquake magnitudes is more questionable. In standard models of seismic activity, it is usually assumed that magnitudes are independent and therefore in principle unpredictable. Our work seeks to test this assumption by analysing magnitude correlation between earthquakes and their aftershocks. To separate mainshocks from aftershocks, we perform stochastic declustering based on the widely used Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, which allows us to then compare the average magnitudes of aftershock sequences to that of their mainshock. The results of earthquake magnitude correlations were compared with acoustic emissions (AE) from laboratory analog experiments, as fracturing generates both AE at the laboratory scale and earthquakes on a crustal scale. Constant stress and constant strain rate experiments were done on Darley Dale sandstone under confining pressure to simulate depth of burial. Microcracking activity inside the rock volume was analyzed by the AE technique as a proxy for earthquakes. Applying the ETAS model to experimental data allowed us to validate our results and provide for the first time a holistic view on the correlation of earthquake magnitudes. Additionally we search the relationship between the conditional intensity estimates of the ETAS model and the earthquake magnitudes. A positive relation would suggest the existence of magnitude correlations. The aim of this study is to observe any trends of dependency between the magnitudes of aftershock earthquakes and the earthquakes that trigger them.

  12. Comparative Study of Earthquake Clustering in Relation to Hydraulic Activities at Geothermal Fields in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martínez-Garzón, P.; Zaliapin, I. V.; Ben-Zion, Y.; Kwiatek, G.; Bohnhoff, M.

    2017-12-01

    We investigate earthquake clustering properties from three geothermal reservoirs to clarify how earthquake patterns respond to hydraulic activities. We process ≈ 9 years from four datasets corresponding to the Geysers (both the entire field and a local subset), Coso and Salton Sea geothermal fields, California. For each, the completeness magnitude, b-value and fractal dimension are calculated and used to identify seismicity clusters using the nearest-neighbor approach of Zaliapin and Ben-Zion [2013a, 2013b]. Estimations of temporal evolution of different clustering properties in relation to hydraulic parameters point to different responses of earthquake dynamics to hydraulic operations in each case study. The clustering at the Geysers at local scale and Salton Sea are most and least affected by hydraulic activities, respectively. The response of the earthquake clustering from different datasets to the hydraulic activities may reflect the regional seismo-tectonic complexity as well as the dimension of the geothermal activities performed (e.g. number of active wells and superposition of injection + production activities).Two clustering properties significantly respond to hydraulic changes across all datasets: the background rates and the proportion of clusters consisting of a single event. Background rates are larger at the Geysers and Coso during high injection-production periods, while the opposite holds for the Salton Sea. This possibly reflects the different physical mechanisms controlling seismicity at each geothermal field. Additionally, a lower proportion of singles is found during time periods with higher injection-production rates. This may reflect decreasing effective stress in areas subjected to higher pore pressure and larger earthquake triggering by stress transfer.

  13. Two grave issues concerning the expected Tokai Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mogi, K.

    2004-08-01

    The possibility of a great shallow earthquake (M 8) in the Tokai region, central Honshu, in the near future was pointed out by Mogi in 1969 and by the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction (CCEP), Japan (1970). In 1978, the government enacted the Large-Scale Earthquake Countermeasures Law and began to set up intensified observations in this region for short-term prediction of the expected Tokai earthquake. In this paper, two serious issues are pointed out, which may contribute to catastrophic effects in connection with the Tokai earthquake: 1. The danger of black-and-white predictions: According to the scenario based on the Large-Scale Earthquake Countermeasures Law, if abnormal crustal changes are observed, the Earthquake Assessment Committee (EAC) will determine whether or not there is an imminent danger. The findings are reported to the Prime Minister who decides whether to issue an official warning statement. Administrative policy clearly stipulates the measures to be taken in response to such a warning, and because the law presupposes the ability to predict a large earthquake accurately, there are drastic measures appropriate to the situation. The Tokai region is a densely populated region with high social and economic activity, and it is traversed by several vital transportation arteries. When a warning statement is issued, all transportation is to be halted. The Tokyo capital region would be cut off from the Nagoya and Osaka regions, and there would be a great impact on all of Japan. I (the former chairman of EAC) maintained that in view of the variety and complexity of precursory phenomena, it was inadvisable to attempt a black-and-white judgment as the basis for a "warning statement". I urged that the government adopt a "soft warning" system that acknowledges the uncertainty factor and that countermeasures be designed with that uncertainty in mind. 2. The danger of nuclear power plants in the focal region: Although the possibility of the

  14. Prediction of earthquake-triggered landslide event sizes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Braun, Anika; Havenith, Hans-Balder; Schlögel, Romy

    2016-04-01

    Seismically induced landslides are a major environmental effect of earthquakes, which may significantly contribute to related losses. Moreover, in paleoseismology landslide event sizes are an important proxy for the estimation of the intensity and magnitude of past earthquakes and thus allowing us to improve seismic hazard assessment over longer terms. Not only earthquake intensity, but also factors such as the fault characteristics, topography, climatic conditions and the geological environment have a major impact on the intensity and spatial distribution of earthquake induced landslides. We present here a review of factors contributing to earthquake triggered slope failures based on an "event-by-event" classification approach. The objective of this analysis is to enable the short-term prediction of earthquake triggered landslide event sizes in terms of numbers and size of the affected area right after an earthquake event occurred. Five main factors, 'Intensity', 'Fault', 'Topographic energy', 'Climatic conditions' and 'Surface geology' were used to establish a relationship to the number and spatial extend of landslides triggered by an earthquake. The relative weight of these factors was extracted from published data for numerous past earthquakes; topographic inputs were checked in Google Earth and through geographic information systems. Based on well-documented recent earthquakes (e.g. Haiti 2010, Wenchuan 2008) and on older events for which reliable extensive information was available (e.g. Northridge 1994, Loma Prieta 1989, Guatemala 1976, Peru 1970) the combination and relative weight of the factors was calibrated. The calibrated factor combination was then applied to more than 20 earthquake events for which landslide distribution characteristics could be cross-checked. One of our main findings is that the 'Fault' factor, which is based on characteristics of the fault, the surface rupture and its location with respect to mountain areas, has the most important

  15. Earthquakes in Arkansas and vicinity 1699-2010

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dart, Richard L.; Ausbrooks, Scott M.

    2011-01-01

    This map summarizes approximately 300 years of earthquake activity in Arkansas. It is one in a series of similar State earthquake history maps. Work on the Arkansas map was done in collaboration with the Arkansas Geological Survey. The earthquake data plotted on the map are from several sources: the Arkansas Geological Survey, the Center for Earthquake Research and Information, the National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research, and the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality. In addition to earthquake locations, other materials presented include seismic hazard and isoseismal maps and related text. Earthquakes are a legitimate concern in Arkansas and parts of adjacent states. Arkansas has undergone a number of significant felt earthquakes since 1811. At least two of these events caused property damage: a magnitude 4.7 earthquake in 1931, and a magnitude 4.3 earthquake in 1967. The map shows all historical and instrumentally located earthquakes in Arkansas and vicinity between 1811 and 2010. The largest historic earthquake in the vicinity of the State was an intensity XI event, on December 16, 1811; the first earthquake in the New Madrid sequence. This violent event and the earthquakes that followed caused considerable damage to the then sparsely settled region.

  16. Unraveling earthquake stresses: Insights from dynamically triggered and induced earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velasco, A. A.; Alfaro-Diaz, R. A.

    2017-12-01

    Induced seismicity, earthquakes caused by anthropogenic activity, has more than doubled in the last several years resulting from practices related to oil and gas production. Furthermore, large earthquakes have been shown to promote the triggering of other events within two fault lengths (static triggering), due to static stresses caused by physical movement along the fault, and also remotely from the passage of seismic waves (dynamic triggering). Thus, in order to understand the mechanisms for earthquake failure, we investigate regions where natural, induced, and dynamically triggered events occur, and specifically target Oklahoma. We first analyze data from EarthScope's USArray Transportable Array (TA) and local seismic networks implementing an optimized (STA/LTA) detector in order to develop local detection and earthquake catalogs. After we identify triggered events through statistical analysis, and perform a stress analysis to gain insight on the stress-states leading to triggered earthquake failure. We use our observations to determine the role of different transient stresses in contributing to natural and induced seismicity by comparing these stresses to regional stress orientation. We also delineate critically stressed regions of triggered seismicity that may indicate areas susceptible to earthquake hazards associated with sustained fluid injection in provinces of induced seismicity. Anthropogenic injection and extraction activity can alter the stress state and fluid flow within production basins. By analyzing the stress release of these ancient faults caused by dynamic stresses, we may be able to determine if fluids are solely responsible for increased seismic activity in induced regions.

  17. A public health issue related to collateral seismic hazards: The valley fever outbreak triggered by the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jibson, R.W.

    2002-01-01

    Following the 17 January 1994 Northridge. California earthquake (M = 6.7), Ventura County, California, experienced a major outbreak of coccidioidomycosis (CM), commonly known as valley fever, a respiratory disease contracted by inhaling airborne fungal spores. In the 8 weeks following the earthquake (24 January through 15 March), 203 outbreak-associated cases were reported, which is about an order of magnitude more than the expected number of cases, and three of these cases were fatal. Simi Valley, in easternmost Ventura County, had the highest attack rate in the county, and the attack rate decreased westward across the county. The temporal and spatial distribution of CM cases indicates that the outbreak resulted from inhalation of spore-contaminated dust generated by earthquake-triggered landslides. Canyons North East of Simi Valley produced many highly disrupted, dust-generating landslides during the earthquake and its aftershocks. Winds after the earthquake were from the North East, which transported dust into Simi Valley and beyond to communities to the West. The three fatalities from the CM epidemic accounted for 4 percent of the total earthquake-related fatalities.

  18. Archaeoseismology in Algeria: observed damages related to probable past earthquakes on archaeological remains on Roman sites (Tel Atlas of Algeria)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roumane, Kahina; Ayadi, Abdelhakim

    2017-04-01

    The seismological catalogue for Algeria exhibits significant lack for the period before 1365. Some attempts led to retrieve ancient earthquakes evidenced by historical documents and achieves. Archaeoseismology allows a study of earthquakes that have affected archaeological sites, based on the analysis of damage observed on remains. We have focused on the Antiquity period that include Roman, Vandal and Byzantine period from B.C 146 to A.D. 533. This will contribute significantly to the understanding of seismic hazard of the Tell Atlas region known as an earthquake prone area. The Tell Atlas (Algeria) experienced during its history many disastrous earthquakes their impacts are graved on landscape and archaeological monuments. On Roman sites such, Lambaesis (Lambèse), Thamugadi (Timgad) Thibilis (Salaoua Announa) or Thevest (Tebessa), damage were observed on monuments and remains related to seismic events following strong shacking or other ground deformation (subsidence, landslide). Examples of observed damage and disorders on several Roman sites are presented as a contribution to Archaeoseismology in Algeria based on effects of earthquakes on ancient structures and monuments. Keywords : Archaeoseismology. Lambaesis. Drop columns. Aspecelium. Ancient earthquakes

  19. A Public Health Issue Related To Collateral Seismic Hazards: The Valley Fever Outbreak Triggered By The 1994 Northridge, California Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jibson, Randall W.

    Following the 17 January 1994 Northridge, California earthquake (M = 6.7), Ventura County, California, experienced a major outbreak ofcoccidioidomycosis (CM), commonly known as valley fever, a respiratory disease contracted byinhaling airborne fungal spores. In the 8 weeks following the earthquake (24 Januarythrough 15 March), 203 outbreak-associated cases were reported, which is about an order of magnitude more than the expected number of cases, and three of these cases were fatal.Simi Valley, in easternmost Ventura County, had the highest attack rate in the county,and the attack rate decreased westward across the county. The temporal and spatial distribution of CM cases indicates that the outbreak resulted from inhalation of spore-contaminated dust generated by earthquake-triggered landslides. Canyons North East of Simi Valleyproduced many highly disrupted, dust-generating landslides during the earthquake andits aftershocks. Winds after the earthquake were from the North East, which transporteddust into Simi Valley and beyond to communities to the West. The three fatalities from the CM epidemic accounted for 4 percent of the total earthquake-related fatalities.

  20. The isolated 678-km deep 30 May 2015 MW 7.9 Ogasawara (Bonin) Islands earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, L.; Lay, T.; Zhan, Z.; Kanamori, H.; Hao, J.

    2015-12-01

    Deep-focus earthquakes, located 300 to 700 km below the Earth's surface within sinking slabs of relatively cold oceanic lithosphere, are mysterious phenomena. Seismic radiation from deep events is essentially indistinguishable from that for shallow stick-slip frictional-sliding earthquakes, but the confining pressure and temperature are so high for deep-focus events that a distinct process is likely needed to account for their abrupt energy release. The largest recorded deep-focus earthquake (MW 7.9) in the Izu-Bonin slab struck on 30 May 2015 beneath the Ogasawara (Bonin) Islands, isolated from prior seismicity by over 100 km in depth, and followed by only 2 small aftershocks. Globally, this is the deepest (678 km) major (MW > 7) earthquake in the seismological record. Seismicity indicates along-strike contortion of the Izu-Bonin slab, with horizontal flattening near a depth of 550 km in the Izu region and progressive steepening to near-vertical toward the south above the location of the 2015 event. Analyses of a large global data set of P, SH and pP seismic phases using short-period back-projection, subevent directivity, and broadband finite-fault inversion indicate that the mainshock ruptured a shallowly-dipping fault plane with patchy slip that spread over a distance of ~40 km with variable expansion rate (~5 km/s down-dip initially, ~3 km/s up-dip later). During the 17 s rupture duration the radiated energy was ~3.3 x 1016 J and the stress drop was ~38 MPa. The radiation efficiency is moderate (0.34), intermediate to that of the 1994 Bolivia and 2013 Sea of Okhotsk MW 8.3 earthquakes, indicating a continuum of processes. The isolated occurrence of the event suggests that localized stress concentration associated with the pronounced deformation of the Izu-Bonin slab likely played a role in generating this major earthquake.

  1. Finite element models of earthquake cycles in mature strike-slip fault zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lynch, John Charles

    The research presented in this dissertation is on the subject of strike-slip earthquakes and the stresses that build and release in the Earth's crust during earthquake cycles. Numerical models of these cycles in a layered elastic/viscoelastic crust are produced using the finite element method. A fault that alternately sticks and slips poses a particularly challenging problem for numerical implementation, and a new contact element dubbed the "Velcro" element was developed to address this problem (Appendix A). Additionally, the finite element code used in this study was bench-marked against analytical solutions for some simplified problems (Chapter 2), and the resolving power was tested for the fault region of the models (Appendix B). With the modeling method thus developed, there are two main questions posed. First, in Chapter 3, the effect of a finite-width shear zone is considered. By defining a viscoelastic shear zone beneath a periodically slipping fault, it is found that shear stress concentrates at the edges of the shear zone and thus causes the stress tensor to rotate into non-Andersonian orientations. Several methods are used to examine the stress patterns, including the plunge angles of the principal stresses and a new method that plots the stress tensor in a manner analogous to seismic focal mechanism diagrams. In Chapter 4, a simple San Andreas-like model is constructed, consisting of two great earthquake producing faults separated by a freely-slipping shorter fault. The model inputs of lower crustal viscosity, fault separation distance, and relative breaking strengths are examined for their effect on fault communication. It is found that with a lower crustal viscosity of 1018 Pa s (in the lower range of estimates for California), the two faults tend to synchronize their earthquake cycles, even in the cases where the faults have asymmetric breaking strengths. These models imply that postseismic stress transfer over hundreds of kilometers may play a

  2. Precursory diffuse carbon dioxide degassing signature related to a 5.1 magnitude earthquake in El Salvador, Central America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salazar, J. M. L.; Pérez, N. M.; Hernández, P. A.; Soriano, T.; Barahona, F.; Olmos, R.; Cartagena, R.; López, D. L.; Lima, R. N.; Melián, G.; Galindo, I.; Padrón, E.; Sumino, H.; Notsu, K.

    2002-12-01

    Anomalous changes in the diffuse emission of carbon dioxide have been observed before some of the aftershocks of the 13 February 2001 El Salvador earthquake (magnitude 6.6). A significant increase in soil CO 2 efflux was detected 8 days before a 5.1 magnitude earthquake on 8 May 2001 25 km away from the observation site. In addition, pre- and co-seismic CO 2 efflux variations have also been observed related to the onset of a seismic swarm beneath San Vicente volcano on May 2001. Strain changes and/or fluid pressure fluctuations prior to earthquakes in the crust are hypothesized to be responsible for the observed variations in gas efflux at the surface environment of San Vicente volcano.

  3. Earthquakes in Mississippi and vicinity 1811-2010

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dart, Richard L.; Bograd, Michael B.E.

    2011-01-01

    This map summarizes two centuries of earthquake activity in Mississippi. Work on the Mississippi map was done in collaboration with the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality, Office of Geology. The earthquake data plotted on the map are from several sources: the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality, the Center for Earthquake Research and Information, the National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research, and the Arkansas Geological Survey. In addition to earthquake locations, other materials include seismic hazard and isoseismal maps and related text. Earthquakes are a legitimate concern in Mississippi and parts of adjacent States. Mississippi has undergone a number of felt earthquakes since 1811. At least two of these events caused property damage: a magnitude 4.7 earthquake in 1931, and a magnitude 4.3 earthquake in 1967. The map shows all historical and instrumentally located earthquakes in Mississippi and vicinity between 1811 and 2010. The largest historic earthquake in the vicinity of the State was an intensity XI event, on December 16, 1811; the first earthquake in the New Madrid sequence. This violent event and the earthquakes that followed caused considerable damage to the then sparsely settled region.

  4. Nowcasting Earthquakes and Tsunamis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.

    2017-12-01

    The term "nowcasting" refers to the estimation of the current uncertain state of a dynamical system, whereas "forecasting" is a calculation of probabilities of future state(s). Nowcasting is a term that originated in economics and finance, referring to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or market indicators such as GDP at the current time by indirect means. We have applied this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of a system of faults, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EA000185/full). Advantages of our nowcasting method over forecasting models include: 1) Nowcasting is simply data analysis and does not involve a model having parameters that must be fit to data; 2) We use only earthquake catalog data which generally has known errors and characteristics; and 3) We use area-based analysis rather than fault-based analysis, meaning that the methods work equally well on land and in subduction zones. To use the nowcast method to estimate how far the fault system has progressed through the "cycle" of large recurring earthquakes, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. We select a "small" region in which the nowcast is to be made, and compute the statistics of a much larger region around the small region. The statistics of the large region are then applied to the small region. For an application, we can define a small region around major global cities, for example a "small" circle of radius 150 km and a depth of 100 km, as well as a "large" earthquake magnitude, for example M6.0. The region of influence of such earthquakes is roughly 150 km radius x 100 km depth, which is the reason these values were selected. We can then compute and rank the seismic risk of the world's major cities in terms of their relative seismic risk

  5. Turkish Compulsory Earthquake Insurance (TCIP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erdik, M.; Durukal, E.; Sesetyan, K.

    2009-04-01

    Through a World Bank project a government-sponsored Turkish Catastrophic Insurance Pool (TCIP) is created in 2000 with the essential aim of transferring the government's financial burden of replacing earthquake-damaged housing to international reinsurance and capital markets. Providing coverage to about 2.9 Million homeowners TCIP is the largest insurance program in the country with about 0.5 Billion USD in its own reserves and about 2.3 Billion USD in total claims paying capacity. The total payment for earthquake damage since 2000 (mostly small, 226 earthquakes) amounts to about 13 Million USD. The country-wide penetration rate is about 22%, highest in the Marmara region (30%) and lowest in the south-east Turkey (9%). TCIP is the sole-source provider of earthquake loss coverage up to 90,000 USD per house. The annual premium, categorized on the basis of earthquake zones type of structure, is about US90 for a 100 square meter reinforced concrete building in the most hazardous zone with 2% deductible. The earthquake engineering related shortcomings of the TCIP is exemplified by fact that the average rate of 0.13% (for reinforced concrete buildings) with only 2% deductible is rather low compared to countries with similar earthquake exposure. From an earthquake engineering point of view the risk underwriting (Typification of housing units to be insured, earthquake intensity zonation and the sum insured) of the TCIP needs to be overhauled. Especially for large cities, models can be developed where its expected earthquake performance (and consequently the insurance premium) can be can be assessed on the basis of the location of the unit (microzoned earthquake hazard) and basic structural attributes (earthquake vulnerability relationships). With such an approach, in the future the TCIP can contribute to the control of construction through differentiation of premia on the basis of earthquake vulnerability.

  6. Earth is speaking: listen her! On-line questionnaire about anomalous geological and biological phenomena

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sciarra, Alessandra; Quattrocchi, Fedora; Cantucci, Barbara; Mazzarini, Francesco

    2014-05-01

    Earthquakes can be associated with non-seismic phenomena which may manifest many weeks before and after the main shock. These phenomena are characterized by ground fractures and soil liquefactions at surface often coupled with degassing events, chemical alterations of water and soils, changes in temperature and/or waters level in the epicentral area. Further manifestations include radio disturbances and light emissions. On the other hand, anomalous behavior of animals has been reported to occur before environmental changes. The co-occurrence of several phenomena may be considered as a signal of subsurface changes, and their analysis may be used as possible forecast indicators for seismic events, landslides, damages in infrastructure (e.g., dam) and groundwaters contamination. In order to obtain an accurate statistical analysis of these factors, a pre-crisis large database over a prolonged period of time is a pre-requisite. To this end, we elaborated a questionnaire for the population to pick up signs about anomalous phenomena like as: animal behavior, geological manifestations, effect on vegetation, degassing, changes on aquifers, wells and springs. After the January 25, 2013, mainshock (ML 4.8) in the Garfagnana seismic district, the Bagni di Lucca Municipality was selected as pilot site for testing this questionnaire. The complexity, variety and extension of this territory (165 kmq) sound suitable for this project. Bagni di Lucca is located in the southern border of the Garfagnana seismogenic source, characterized by the carbonate Mesozoic sequences and the Tertiary terrigenous sedimentary deposits of the Tuscan Nappe. The questionnaire was published on Bagni di Lucca web site (https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bzw3vOYX47XoTGltTVJRbkJuajA/edit) in collaboration with Municipal Commitee, Local Civil Protection and Local Red Cross, and sent by ordinary mail to the citizenry. It is possible to answer to the questionnaire, also anonymously, direct on line (https

  7. Teaching optical phenomena with Tracker

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodrigues, M.; Simeão Carvalho, P.

    2014-11-01

    Since the invention and dissemination of domestic laser pointers, observing optical phenomena is a relatively easy task. Any student can buy a laser and experience at home, in a qualitative way, the reflection, refraction and even diffraction phenomena of light. However, quantitative experiments need instruments of high precision that have a relatively complex setup. Fortunately, nowadays it is possible to analyse optical phenomena in a simple and quantitative way using the freeware video analysis software ‘Tracker’. In this paper, we show the advantages of video-based experimental activities for teaching concepts in optics. We intend to show: (a) how easy the study of such phenomena can be, even at home, because only simple materials are needed, and Tracker provides the necessary measuring instruments; and (b) how we can use Tracker to improve students’ understanding of some optical concepts. We give examples using video modelling to study the laws of reflection, Snell’s laws, focal distances in lenses and mirrors, and diffraction phenomena, which we hope will motivate teachers to implement it in their own classes and schools.

  8. From Tornadoes to Earthquakes: Forecast Verification for Binary Events Applied to the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, C.; Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Nanjo, K.; Turcotte, D. L.; Li, S.; Tiampo, K. F.

    2005-12-01

    Forecast verification procedures for statistical events with binary outcomes typically rely on the use of contingency tables and Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) diagrams. Originally developed for the statistical evaluation of tornado forecasts on a county-by-county basis, these methods can be adapted to the evaluation of competing earthquake forecasts. Here we apply these methods retrospectively to two forecasts for the m = 7.3 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake. These forecasts are based on a method, Pattern Informatics (PI), that locates likely sites for future large earthquakes based on large change in activity of the smallest earthquakes. A competing null hypothesis, Relative Intensity (RI), is based on the idea that future large earthquake locations are correlated with sites having the greatest frequency of small earthquakes. We show that for Taiwan, the PI forecast method is superior to the RI forecast null hypothesis. Inspection of the two maps indicates that their forecast locations are indeed quite different. Our results confirm an earlier result suggesting that the earthquake preparation process for events such as the Chi-Chi earthquake involves anomalous changes in activation or quiescence, and that signatures of these processes can be detected in precursory seismicity data. Furthermore, we find that our methods can accurately forecast the locations of aftershocks from precursory seismicity changes alone, implying that the main shock together with its aftershocks represent a single manifestation of the formation of a high-stress region nucleating prior to the main shock.

  9. Earthquake damage orientation to infer seismic parameters in archaeological sites and historical earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martín-González, Fidel

    2018-01-01

    Studies to provide information concerning seismic parameters and seismic sources of historical and archaeological seismic events are used to better evaluate the seismic hazard of a region. This is of especial interest when no surface rupture is recorded or the seismogenic fault cannot be identified. The orientation pattern of the earthquake damage (ED) (e.g., fallen columns, dropped key stones) that affected architectonic elements of cities after earthquakes has been traditionally used in historical and archaeoseismological studies to infer seismic parameters. However, in the literature depending on the authors, the parameters that can be obtained are contradictory (it has been proposed: the epicenter location, the orientation of the P-waves, the orientation of the compressional strain and the fault kinematics) and authors even question these relations with the earthquake damage. The earthquakes of Lorca in 2011, Christchurch in 2011 and Emilia Romagna in 2012 present an opportunity to measure systematically a large number and wide variety of earthquake damage in historical buildings (the same structures that are used in historical and archaeological studies). The damage pattern orientation has been compared with modern instrumental data, which is not possible in historical and archaeoseismological studies. From measurements and quantification of the orientation patterns in the studied earthquakes, it is observed that there is a systematic pattern of the earthquake damage orientation (EDO) in the proximity of the seismic source (fault trace) (<10 km). The EDO in these earthquakes is normal to the fault trend (±15°). This orientation can be generated by a pulse of motion that in the near fault region has a distinguishable acceleration normal to the fault due to the polarization of the S-waves. Therefore, the earthquake damage orientation could be used to estimate the seismogenic fault trend of historical earthquakes studies where no instrumental data are available.

  10. Are there new findings in the search for ULF magnetic precursors to earthquakes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masci, F.; Thomas, J. N.

    2015-12-01

    Moore (1964) in a letter published in Nature reported disturbances in geomagnetic field data prior to the 27 March 1964 Alaska earthquake. After the publication of this report, many papers have shown magnetic changes preceding earthquakes. However, a causal relationship between preearthquake magnetic changes and impending earthquakes has never been demonstrated. As a consequence, after 50 years, magnetic disturbances in the geomagnetic field are still candidate precursory phenomena. Some researchers consider the investigation of ultra low frequency (ULF: 0.001-10 Hz) magnetic data the correct approach for identifying precursory signatures of earthquakes. Other researchers, instead, have recently reviewed many published ULF magnetic changes that preceded earthquakes and have shown that these are not actual precursors. The recent studies by Currie and Waters (2014) and Han et al. (2014) aim to provide relevant new findings in the search for ULF magnetic precursory signals. However, in order to contribute to science, alleged precursors must be shown to be valid and reproducible by objective testing. Here we will briefly discuss the state of the art in the search for ULF magnetic precursors, paying special attention to the recent findings of Currie and Waters (2014) and Han et al. (2014). We do not see in these two reports significant evidence that may support the observation of precursory signatures of earthquakes in ULF magnetic records.

  11. Earthquake Rate Model 2 of the 2007 Working Group for California Earthquake Probabilities, Magnitude-Area Relationships

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stein, Ross S.

    2008-01-01

    The Working Group for California Earthquake Probabilities must transform fault lengths and their slip rates into earthquake moment-magnitudes. First, the down-dip coseismic fault dimension, W, must be inferred. We have chosen the Nazareth and Hauksson (2004) method, which uses the depth above which 99% of the background seismicity occurs to assign W. The product of the observed or inferred fault length, L, with the down-dip dimension, W, gives the fault area, A. We must then use a scaling relation to relate A to moment-magnitude, Mw. We assigned equal weight to the Ellsworth B (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 2003) and Hanks and Bakun (2007) equations. The former uses a single logarithmic relation fitted to the M=6.5 portion of data of Wells and Coppersmith (1994); the latter uses a bilinear relation with a slope change at M=6.65 (A=537 km2) and also was tested against a greatly expanded dataset for large continental transform earthquakes. We also present an alternative power law relation, which fits the newly expanded Hanks and Bakun (2007) data best, and captures the change in slope that Hanks and Bakun attribute to a transition from area- to length-scaling of earthquake slip. We have not opted to use the alternative relation for the current model. The selections and weights were developed by unanimous consensus of the Executive Committee of the Working Group, following an open meeting of scientists, a solicitation of outside opinions from additional scientists, and presentation of our approach to the Scientific Review Panel. The magnitude-area relations and their assigned weights are unchanged from that used in Working Group (2003).

  12. The 2004 Parkfield, CA Earthquake: A Teachable Moment for Exploring Earthquake Processes, Probability, and Earthquake Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kafka, A.; Barnett, M.; Ebel, J.; Bellegarde, H.; Campbell, L.

    2004-12-01

    The occurrence of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake provided a unique "teachable moment" for students in our science course for teacher education majors. The course uses seismology as a medium for teaching a wide variety of science topics appropriate for future teachers. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake occurred just 15 minutes after our students completed a lab on earthquake processes and earthquake prediction. That lab included a discussion of the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment as a motivation for the exercises they were working on that day. Furthermore, this earthquake was recorded on an AS1 seismograph right in their lab, just minutes after the students left. About an hour after we recorded the earthquake, the students were able to see their own seismogram of the event in the lecture part of the course, which provided an excellent teachable moment for a lecture/discussion on how the occurrence of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake might affect seismologists' ideas about earthquake prediction. The specific lab exercise that the students were working on just before we recorded this earthquake was a "sliding block" experiment that simulates earthquakes in the classroom. The experimental apparatus includes a flat board on top of which are blocks of wood attached to a bungee cord and a string wrapped around a hand crank. Plate motion is modeled by slowly turning the crank, and earthquakes are modeled as events in which the block slips ("blockquakes"). We scaled the earthquake data and the blockquake data (using how much the string moved as a proxy for time) so that we could compare blockquakes and earthquakes. This provided an opportunity to use interevent-time histograms to teach about earthquake processes, probability, and earthquake prediction, and to compare earthquake sequences with blockquake sequences. We were able to show the students, using data obtained directly from their own lab, how global earthquake data fit a Poisson exponential distribution better

  13. Earthquake Hazard in the New Madrid Seismic Zone Remains a Concern

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Frankel, A.D.; Applegate, D.; Tuttle, M.P.; Williams, R.A.

    2009-01-01

    There is broad agreement in the scientific community that a continuing concern exists for a major destructive earthquake in the New Madrid seismic zone. Many structures in Memphis, Tenn., St. Louis, Mo., and other communities in the central Mississippi River Valley region are vulnerable and at risk from severe ground shaking. This assessment is based on decades of research on New Madrid earthquakes and related phenomena by dozens of Federal, university, State, and consulting earth scientists. Considerable interest has developed recently from media reports that the New Madrid seismic zone may be shutting down. These reports stem from published research using global positioning system (GPS) instruments with results of geodetic measurements of strain in the Earth's crust. Because of a lack of measurable strain at the surface in some areas of the seismic zone over the past 14 years, arguments have been advanced that there is no buildup of stress at depth within the New Madrid seismic zone and that the zone may no longer pose a significant hazard. As part of the consensus-building process used to develop the national seismic hazard maps, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) convened a workshop of experts in 2006 to evaluate the latest findings in earthquake hazards in the Eastern United States. These experts considered the GPS data from New Madrid available at that time that also showed little to no ground movement at the surface. The experts did not find the GPS data to be a convincing reason to lower the assessment of earthquake hazard in the New Madrid region, especially in light of the many other types of data that are used to construct the hazard assessment, several of which are described here.

  14. Integrated study of geophysical and biological anomalies before earthquakes (seismic and non-seismic), in Austria and Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Straka, Wolfgang; Assef, Rizkita; Faber, Robert; Ferasyi, Reza

    2015-04-01

    Earthquakes are commonly seen as unpredictable. Even when scientists believe an earthquake is likely, it is still hard to understand the indications observed, as well as their theoretical and practical implications. There is some controversy surrounding the concept of using animals as a precursor of earthquakes. Nonetheless, several institutes at University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, and Vienna University of Technology, both Vienna, Austria, and Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh, as well as Terramath Indonesia, Buleleng, both Indonesia, cooperate in a long-term project, funded by Red Bull Media House, Salzburg, Austria, which aims at getting some decisive step forward from anecdotal to scientific evidence of those interdependencies, and show their possible use in forecasting seismic hazard on a short-term basis. Though no conclusive research has yet been published, an idea in this study is that even if animals do not respond to specific geophysical precursors and with enough notice to enable earthquake forecasting on that basis, they may at least enhance, in conjunction with other indications, the degree of certainty we can get of a prediction of an impending earthquake. In Indonesia, indeed, before the great earthquakes of 2004 and 2005, ominous geophysical as well as biological phenomena occurred (but were realized as precursors only in retrospect). Numerous comparable stories can be told from other times and regions. Nearly 2000 perceptible earthquakes (> M3.5) occur each year in Indonesia. Also, in 2007, the government has launched a program, focused on West Sumatra, for investigating earthquake precursors. Therefore, Indonesia is an excellent target area for a study concerning possible interconnections between geophysical and biological earthquake precursors. Geophysical and atmospheric measurements and behavioral observation of several animal species (elephant, domestic cattle, water buffalo, chicken, rat, catfish) are conducted in three areas

  15. Limitation of the Predominant-Period Estimator for Earthquake Early Warning and the Initial Rupture of Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamada, T.; Ide, S.

    2007-12-01

    Earthquake early warning is an important and challenging issue for the reduction of the seismic damage, especially for the mitigation of human suffering. One of the most important problems in earthquake early warning systems is how immediately we can estimate the final size of an earthquake after we observe the ground motion. It is relevant to the problem whether the initial rupture of an earthquake has some information associated with its final size. Nakamura (1988) developed the Urgent Earthquake Detection and Alarm System (UrEDAS). It calculates the predominant period of the P wave (τp) and estimates the magnitude of an earthquake immediately after the P wave arrival from the value of τpmax, or the maximum value of τp. The similar approach has been adapted by other earthquake alarm systems (e.g., Allen and Kanamori (2003)). To investigate the characteristic of the parameter τp and the effect of the length of the time window (TW) in the τpmax calculation, we analyze the high-frequency recordings of earthquakes at very close distances in the Mponeng mine in South Africa. We find that values of τpmax have upper and lower limits. For larger earthquakes whose source durations are longer than TW, the values of τpmax have an upper limit which depends on TW. On the other hand, the values for smaller earthquakes have a lower limit which is proportional to the sampling interval. For intermediate earthquakes, the values of τpmax are close to their typical source durations. These two limits and the slope for intermediate earthquakes yield an artificial final size dependence of τpmax in a wide size range. The parameter τpmax is useful for detecting large earthquakes and broadcasting earthquake early warnings. However, its dependence on the final size of earthquakes does not suggest that the earthquake rupture is deterministic. This is because τpmax does not always have a direct relation to the physical quantities of an earthquake.

  16. An earthquake instability model based on faults containing high fluid-pressure compartments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lockner, D.A.; Byerlee, J.D.

    1995-01-01

    results of a one-dimensional dynamic Burridge-Knopoff-type model to demonstrate various aspects of the fluid-assisted fault instability described above. In the numerical model, the fault is represented by a series of blocks and springs, with fault rheology expressed by static and dynamic friction. In addition, the fault surface of each block has associated with it pore pressure, porosity and permeability. All of these variables are allowed to evolve with time, resulting in a wide range of phenomena related to fluid diffusion, dilatancy, compaction and heating. These phenomena include creep events, diffusion-controlled precursors, triggered earthquakes, foreshocks, aftershocks, and multiple earthquakes. While the simulations have limitations inherent to 1-D fault models, they demonstrate that the fluid compartment model can, in principle, provide the rich assortment of phenomena that have been associated with earthquakes. ?? 1995 Birkha??user Verlag.

  17. Ionospheric precursors to large earthquakes: A case study of the 2011 Japanese Tohoku Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carter, B. A.; Kellerman, A. C.; Kane, T. A.; Dyson, P. L.; Norman, R.; Zhang, K.

    2013-09-01

    Researchers have reported ionospheric electron distribution abnormalities, such as electron density enhancements and/or depletions, that they claimed were related to forthcoming earthquakes. In this study, the Tohoku earthquake is examined using ionosonde data to establish whether any otherwise unexplained ionospheric anomalies were detected in the days and hours prior to the event. As the choices for the ionospheric baseline are generally different between previous works, three separate baselines for the peak plasma frequency of the F2 layer, foF2, are employed here; the running 30-day median (commonly used in other works), the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model and the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM). It is demonstrated that the classification of an ionospheric perturbation is heavily reliant on the baseline used, with the 30-day median, the IRI and the TIE-GCM generally underestimating, approximately describing and overestimating the measured foF2, respectively, in the 1-month period leading up to the earthquake. A detailed analysis of the ionospheric variability in the 3 days before the earthquake is then undertaken, where a simultaneous increase in foF2 and the Es layer peak plasma frequency, foEs, relative to the 30-day median was observed within 1 h before the earthquake. A statistical search for similar simultaneous foF2 and foEs increases in 6 years of data revealed that this feature has been observed on many other occasions without related seismic activity. Therefore, it is concluded that one cannot confidently use this type of ionospheric perturbation to predict an impending earthquake. It is suggested that in order to achieve significant progress in our understanding of seismo-ionospheric coupling, better account must be taken of other known sources of ionospheric variability in addition to solar and geomagnetic activity, such as the thermospheric coupling.

  18. Earthquakes

    MedlinePlus

    An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...

  19. Advanced Simulation of Coupled Earthquake and Tsunami Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Behrens, Joern

    2013-04-01

    Tsunami-Earthquakes represent natural catastrophes threatening lives and well-being of societies in a solitary and unexpected extreme event as tragically demonstrated in Sumatra (2004), Samoa (2009), Chile (2010), or Japan (2011). Both phenomena are consequences of the complex system of interactions of tectonic stress, fracture mechanics, rock friction, rupture dynamics, fault geometry, ocean bathymetry, and coastline geometry. The ASCETE project forms an interdisciplinary research consortium that couples the most advanced simulation technologies for earthquake rupture dynamics and tsunami propagation to understand the fundamental conditions of tsunami generation. We report on the latest research results in physics-based dynamic rupture and tsunami wave propagation simulation, using unstructured and adaptive meshes with continuous and discontinuous Galerkin discretization approaches. Coupling both simulation tools - the physics-based dynamic rupture simulation and the hydrodynamic tsunami wave propagation - will give us the possibility to conduct highly realistic studies of the interaction of rupture dynamics and tsunami impact characteristics.

  20. Foreshock and aftershocks in simple earthquake models.

    PubMed

    Kazemian, J; Tiampo, K F; Klein, W; Dominguez, R

    2015-02-27

    Many models of earthquake faults have been introduced that connect Gutenberg-Richter (GR) scaling to triggering processes. However, natural earthquake fault systems are composed of a variety of different geometries and materials and the associated heterogeneity in physical properties can cause a variety of spatial and temporal behaviors. This raises the question of how the triggering process and the structure interact to produce the observed phenomena. Here we present a simple earthquake fault model based on the Olami-Feder-Christensen and Rundle-Jackson-Brown cellular automata models with long-range interactions that incorporates a fixed percentage of stronger sites, or asperity cells, into the lattice. These asperity cells are significantly stronger than the surrounding lattice sites but eventually rupture when the applied stress reaches their higher threshold stress. The introduction of these spatial heterogeneities results in temporal clustering in the model that mimics that seen in natural fault systems along with GR scaling. In addition, we observe sequences of activity that start with a gradually accelerating number of larger events (foreshocks) prior to a main shock that is followed by a tail of decreasing activity (aftershocks). This work provides further evidence that the spatial and temporal patterns observed in natural seismicity are strongly influenced by the underlying physical properties and are not solely the result of a simple cascade mechanism.

  1. Large earthquakes and creeping faults

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, Ruth A.

    2017-01-01

    Faults are ubiquitous throughout the Earth's crust. The majority are silent for decades to centuries, until they suddenly rupture and produce earthquakes. With a focus on shallow continental active-tectonic regions, this paper reviews a subset of faults that have a different behavior. These unusual faults slowly creep for long periods of time and produce many small earthquakes. The presence of fault creep and the related microseismicity helps illuminate faults that might not otherwise be located in fine detail, but there is also the question of how creeping faults contribute to seismic hazard. It appears that well-recorded creeping fault earthquakes of up to magnitude 6.6 that have occurred in shallow continental regions produce similar fault-surface rupture areas and similar peak ground shaking as their locked fault counterparts of the same earthquake magnitude. The behavior of much larger earthquakes on shallow creeping continental faults is less well known, because there is a dearth of comprehensive observations. Computational simulations provide an opportunity to fill the gaps in our understanding, particularly of the dynamic processes that occur during large earthquake rupture and arrest.

  2. The 2011 Tohoku-oki Earthquake related to a large velocity gradient within the Pacific plate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsubara, Makoto; Obara, Kazushige

    2015-04-01

    rays from the hypocenter around the coseismic region of the Tohoku-oki earthquake take off downward and pass through the Pacific plate. The landward low-V zone with a large anomaly corresponds to the western edge of the coseismic slip zone of the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake. The initial break point (hypocenter) is associated with the edge of a slightly low-V and low-Vp/Vs zone corresponding to the boundary of the low- and high-V zone. The trenchward low-V and low-Vp/Vs zone extending southwestward from the hypocenter may indicate the existence of a subducted seamount. The high-V zone and low-Vp/Vs zone might have accumulated the strain and resulted in the huge coseismic slip zone of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The low-V and low-Vp/Vs zone is a slight fluctuation within the high-V zone and might have acted as the initial break point of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Reference Matsubara, M. and K. Obara (2011) The 2011 Off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku earthquake related to a strong velocity gradient with the Pacific plate, Earth Planets Space, 63, 663-667. Okada, Y., K. Kasahara, S. Hori, K. Obara, S. Sekiguchi, H. Fujiwara, and A. Yamamoto (2004) Recent progress of seismic observation networks in Japan-Hi-net, F-net, K-NET and KiK-net, Research News Earth Planets Space, 56, xv-xxviii.

  3. Earthquake source properties from pseudotachylite

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Beeler, Nicholas M.; Di Toro, Giulio; Nielsen, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    The motions radiated from an earthquake contain information that can be interpreted as displacements within the source and therefore related to stress drop. Except in a few notable cases, the source displacements can neither be easily related to the absolute stress level or fault strength, nor attributed to a particular physical mechanism. In contrast paleo-earthquakes recorded by exhumed pseudotachylite have a known dynamic mechanism whose properties constrain the co-seismic fault strength. Pseudotachylite can also be used to directly address a longstanding discrepancy between seismologically measured static stress drops, which are typically a few MPa, and much larger dynamic stress drops expected from thermal weakening during localized slip at seismic speeds in crystalline rock [Sibson, 1973; McKenzie and Brune, 1969; Lachenbruch, 1980; Mase and Smith, 1986; Rice, 2006] as have been observed recently in laboratory experiments at high slip rates [Di Toro et al., 2006a]. This note places pseudotachylite-derived estimates of fault strength and inferred stress levels within the context and broader bounds of naturally observed earthquake source parameters: apparent stress, stress drop, and overshoot, including consideration of roughness of the fault surface, off-fault damage, fracture energy, and the 'strength excess'. The analysis, which assumes stress drop is related to corner frequency by the Madariaga [1976] source model, is restricted to the intermediate sized earthquakes of the Gole Larghe fault zone in the Italian Alps where the dynamic shear strength is well-constrained by field and laboratory measurements. We find that radiated energy exceeds the shear-generated heat and that the maximum strength excess is ~16 MPa. More generally these events have inferred earthquake source parameters that are rate, for instance a few percent of the global earthquake population has stress drops as large, unless: fracture energy is routinely greater than existing models allow

  4. Remarkable Changes in Behavior and Physiology of Laboratory Mice after the Massive 2011 Tohoku Earthquake in Japan

    PubMed Central

    Yanai, Shuichi; Semba, Yuki; Endo, Shogo

    2012-01-01

    A devastating earthquake and tsunami hit Japan on March 11, 2011, followed by several long and intense aftershocks. Laboratory mice housed in the Tokyo, located approximately 330 km south of this earthquake’s epicenter, displayed remarkable changes in a variety of behaviors and physiological measures. Although unusual pre-earthquake behaviors have been previously reported in laboratory animals, little is known about behavioral and physiological changes that occur after a great earthquake. In the present study, the effects of Tohoku earthquake on mice behavior were investigated. “Earthquake-experienced” mice displayed a marked increase in food consumption without gaining body weight in response to the earthquake. They also displayed enhanced anxiety, and in a formal fear memory task, showed significantly greater tone- and context-dependent conditioned freezing. Water maze performance of earthquake-experienced mice showed the quicker acquisition of the task, faster swim speed and longer swim distance than the naive mice. Serum corticosterone levels were elevated compared to the naive mice, indicating that the earthquake and aftershocks were stressful for the mice. These results demonstrate that great earthquakes strongly affect mouse behaviors and physiology. Although the effects of a variety of experimental manipulations on mouse behaviors in disease models or in models of higher cognitive functions have been extensively examined, researchers need to be aware how natural phenomena, such as earthquakes and perhaps other natural environmental factors, influence laboratory animal behaviors and physiology. PMID:22957073

  5. Nursing phenomena in inpatient psychiatry.

    PubMed

    Frauenfelder, F; Müller-Staub, M; Needham, I; Van Achterberg, T

    2011-04-01

    Little is known about the question if the nursing diagnosis classification of North American Nursing Association-International (NANDA-I) describes the adult inpatient psychiatric nursing care. The present study aimed to identify nursing phenomena mentioned in journal articles about the psychiatric inpatient nursing care and to compare these phenomena with the labels and the definitions of the nursing diagnoses to elucidate how well this classification covers these phenomena. A search of journal articles took place in the databases MedLine, PsychInfo, Cochrane and CINAHL. A qualitative content analysis approach was used to identify nursing phenomena in the articles. Various phenomena were found in the articles. The study demonstrated that NANDA-I describes essential phenomena for the adult inpatient psychiatry on the level of labels and definitions. However, some apparently important nursing phenomena are not covered by the labels or definitions of NANDA-I. Other phenomena are assigned as defining characteristics or as related factors to construct nursing diagnoses. The further development of the classification NANDA-I will strengthen the application in the daily work of psychiatric nurses and enhance the quality of nursing care in the inpatient setting. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing.

  6. How personal earthquake experience impacts on the Stroop interference effect: an event-related potential study.

    PubMed

    Qiu, Jiang; Su, Yanhua; Li, Hong; Wei, Dongtao; Tu, Shen; Zhang, Qinglin

    2010-11-01

    Event-related brain potentials (ERPs) were measured when 24 Chinese subjects performed the classical Stroop task. All of subjects had experienced the great Sichuan earthquake (5/12), with 12 people in each of the Far (Chengdu city) and the Close (Deyang city) earthquake experience groups. The behavioral data showed that the Stroop task yielded a robust Stroop interference effect as indexed by longer RT for incongruent than congruent color words in both the Chengdu and Deyang groups. Scalp ERP data showed that incongruent stimuli elicited a more negative ERP deflection (N400-600; Stroop interference effect) than did congruent stimuli between 400-600 ms in the Chengdu group, while the Stroop interference ERP effect was not found in the Deyang group. Dipole source analysis localized the generator of the N400-600 in the right prefrontal cortex (PFC) and was possibly related to conflict monitoring and cognitive control. Copyright © 2010 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

  7. Earthquake ethics through scientific knowledge, historical memory and societal awareness: the experience of direct internet information.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Rubeis, Valerio; Sbarra, Paola; Sebaste, Beppe; Tosi, Patrizia

    2013-04-01

    The experience of collection of data on earthquake effects and diffusion of information to people, carried on through the site "haisentitoilterremoto.it" (didyoufeelit) managed by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), has evidenced a constantly growing interest by Italian citizens. Started in 2007, the site has collected more than 520,000 compiled intensity questionnaires, producing intensity maps of almost 6,000 earthquakes. One of the most peculiar feature of this experience is constituted by a bi-directional information exchange. Every person can record observed effects of the earthquake and, at the same time, look at the generated maps. Seismologists, on the other side, can find each earthquake described in real time through its effects on the whole territory. In this way people, giving punctual information, receive global information from the community, mediated and interpreted by seismological knowledge. The relationship amongst seismologists, mass media and civil society is, thus, deep and rich. The presence of almost 20,000 permanent subscribers distributed on the whole Italian territory, alerted in case of earthquake, has reinforced the participation: the subscriber is constantly informed by the seismologists, through e-mail, about events occurred in his-her area, even if with very small magnitude. The "alert" service provides the possibility to remember that earthquakes are a phenomenon continuously present, on the other hand it shows that high magnitude events are very rare. This kind of information is helpful as it is fully complementary to that one given by media. We analyze the effects of our activity on society and mass media. The knowledge of seismic phenomena is present in each person, having roots on fear, idea of death and destruction, often with the deep belief of very rare occurrence. This position feeds refusal and repression. When a strong earthquake occurs, surprise immediately changes into shock and desperation. A

  8. How fault geometry controls earthquake magnitude

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bletery, Q.; Thomas, A.; Karlstrom, L.; Rempel, A. W.; Sladen, A.; De Barros, L.

    2016-12-01

    Recent large megathrust earthquakes, such as the Mw9.3 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake in 2004 and the Mw9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in 2011, astonished the scientific community. The first event occurred in a relatively low-convergence-rate subduction zone where events of its size were unexpected. The second event involved 60 m of shallow slip in a region thought to be aseismicaly creeping and hence incapable of hosting very large magnitude earthquakes. These earthquakes highlight gaps in our understanding of mega-earthquake rupture processes and the factors controlling their global distribution. Here we show that gradients in dip angle exert a primary control on mega-earthquake occurrence. We calculate the curvature along the major subduction zones of the world and show that past mega-earthquakes occurred on flat (low-curvature) interfaces. A simplified analytic model demonstrates that shear strength heterogeneity increases with curvature. Stress loading on flat megathrusts is more homogeneous and hence more likely to be released simultaneously over large areas than on highly-curved faults. Therefore, the absence of asperities on large faults might counter-intuitively be a source of higher hazard.

  9. A seismological study of shallow weak earthquakes in the urban area of Hamburg city, Germany, and its possible relation to salt dissolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dahm, Torsten; Heimann, Sebastian; Bialowons, Wilhelm

    2010-05-01

    In the night from 8/9 April 2009, shortly after midnight on Maundy Thursday before Easter, several people in Gross-Flottbek, Hamburg, felt unusual strong ground shocks so that some of them left their houses in fear of earthquake shaking. Police and Fire Brigade received phone calls of worried residents, and few days later Internet pages were published where people reported their observations. On 21 April 2009 at about 8 p.m. local time a second micro-earthquake was felt. Damage to buildings or infrastructure did not occur to our knowledge. The Institute of Geophysics, University of Hamburg, installed from 22 April to 17 May 2009 three temporal seismic stations in the epicentral area. Seismological data from two close-by stations at the Deutsches Elektron-Synchrotron (DESY) in about 1 km and the Geophysical Institute in about 7 km distance were collected and integrated to the temporal network. The events occurred above the roof of the shallow Othmarschen Langenfelde salt diapir (OLD), in an area known for active sinkhole formation and previous historic ground shaking events. The analysis of the seismological data recovers that three shallow micro-earthquakes occurred from 8 to 21 April at a depth of about 100m, the largest one with a moment magnitude of about MW 0.6. Depth location of such shallow events is difficult with standard methods, and is here constrained by waveform modeling of surface waves. Earthquakes occurring in soft sediments within the uppermost 100 m are a rare phenomena and cannot be explained by standard models. Rupture process in soft sediments differ from those on faults in more competent rock. We discuss the rupture and source mechanism of the earthquakes in the context of previous historic shocks and existing sinkhole and deformation data. Although the event was so weak, the rupture duration was unusual long and possibly 0.3 s. Three possible models for the generation of repeated micro-earthquakes in Gross Flottbek are developed and discussed

  10. Historical reconstruction of oil and gas spills during moderate and strong earthquakes and related geochemical surveys in Southern Apennines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sciarra, Alessandra; Cantucci, Barbara; Ferrari, Graziano; Pizzino, Luca; Quattrocchi, Fedora

    2016-04-01

    The aim of this study is to contribute to the assessment of natural hazards in a seismically active area of southern Italy through the joint analysis of historical sources and fluid geochemistry. In particular, our studies have been focalized in the Val d'Agri basin, in the Apennines extensional belt, since it hosts the largest oilfield in onshore Europe and normal-fault systems with high seismogenic potential (up to M7). The work was organized into three main themes: 1) literature search aimed at identifying fluid emissions during previous moderate-strong earthquakes; 2) consultation of local and national archives to identify historic local place names correlated to natural fluids emissions; 3) geochemical sampling of groundwater and gas issuing at surface, identified on the basis of the bibliographic sources. A reasoned reading of written documents and available historical data was performed. Moreover, we reworked information reported in historical catalogues, referred to liquid and gas hydrocarbon leakages occurred during seismic events of the past (in a range of magnitude from 5 to 7) in the Southern Apennines (with a particular focus on the Val d'Agri). Special attention was given to the phenomena of geochemical emissions related to major historical earthquakes that took place in the area, most notably that of 16 December 1857 (M = 7). A careful analysis of the Robert Mallet's report, a complete work aimed at describing the social impact and the effects on the environment produced by this earthquake through illustrated maps and diagrams, included several hundred monoscopic and stereoscopic photographs, was done. From archival sources (at national and/or local administrations), "sensitive" sites to the onset of leakage of liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons in the past were identified. A soil-gas survey (22 gas concentrations and flux measurements) and 35 groundwater samplings were carried out in specific sites recognized through the above studies. From a

  11. Simple Physical Model for the Probability of a Subduction- Zone Earthquake Following Slow Slip Events and Earthquakes: Application to the Hikurangi Megathrust, New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaneko, Yoshihiro; Wallace, Laura M.; Hamling, Ian J.; Gerstenberger, Matthew C.

    2018-05-01

    Slow slip events (SSEs) have been documented in subduction zones worldwide, yet their implications for future earthquake occurrence are not well understood. Here we develop a relatively simple, simulation-based method for estimating the probability of megathrust earthquakes following tectonic events that induce any transient stress perturbations. This method has been applied to the locked Hikurangi megathrust (New Zealand) surrounded on all sides by the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake and SSEs. Our models indicate the annual probability of a M≥7.8 earthquake over 1 year after the Kaikoura earthquake increases by 1.3-18 times relative to the pre-Kaikoura probability, and the absolute probability is in the range of 0.6-7%. We find that probabilities of a large earthquake are mainly controlled by the ratio of the total stressing rate induced by all nearby tectonic sources to the mean stress drop of earthquakes. Our method can be applied to evaluate the potential for triggering a megathrust earthquake following SSEs in other subduction zones.

  12. Diffusive Phenomena and the Austenite/Martensite Relative Stability in Cu-Based Shape-Memory Alloys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pelegrina, J. L.; Yawny, A.; Sade, M.

    2018-03-01

    The main characteristic of martensitic phase transitions is the coordinate movement of the atoms which takes place athermally, without the contribution of diffusion during its occurrence. However, the impacts of diffusive phenomena on the relative stability between the phases involved and, consequently, on the associated transformation temperatures and functional properties can be significant. This is particularly evident in the case of Cu-based shape-memory alloys where atomic diffusion in both austenite and martensite metastable phases might occur even at room-temperature levels, giving rise to a variety of intensively studied phenomena. In the present study, the progresses made in the understanding of three selected diffusion-related effects of importance in Cu-Zn-Al and Cu-Al-Be alloys are reviewed. They are the after-quench retained disorder in the austenitic structure and its subsequent reordering, the stabilization of the martensite, and the effect of applied stress on the austenitic order. It is shown how the experimental results obtained from tests performed on single crystal material can be rationalized under the shed of a model developed to evaluate the variation of the relative stability between the phases in terms of atom pairs interchanges.

  13. Diffusive Phenomena and the Austenite/Martensite Relative Stability in Cu-Based Shape-Memory Alloys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pelegrina, J. L.; Yawny, A.; Sade, M.

    2018-02-01

    The main characteristic of martensitic phase transitions is the coordinate movement of the atoms which takes place athermally, without the contribution of diffusion during its occurrence. However, the impacts of diffusive phenomena on the relative stability between the phases involved and, consequently, on the associated transformation temperatures and functional properties can be significant. This is particularly evident in the case of Cu-based shape-memory alloys where atomic diffusion in both austenite and martensite metastable phases might occur even at room-temperature levels, giving rise to a variety of intensively studied phenomena. In the present study, the progresses made in the understanding of three selected diffusion-related effects of importance in Cu-Zn-Al and Cu-Al-Be alloys are reviewed. They are the after-quench retained disorder in the austenitic structure and its subsequent reordering, the stabilization of the martensite, and the effect of applied stress on the austenitic order. It is shown how the experimental results obtained from tests performed on single crystal material can be rationalized under the shed of a model developed to evaluate the variation of the relative stability between the phases in terms of atom pairs interchanges.

  14. The variation of the ground electric field associated with the Mei-Nung earthquake on Feb. 6, 2016

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bing-Chih Chen, Alfred; Yeh, Er-Chun; Chuang, Chia-Wen

    2017-04-01

    Recent studies show that a strong coupling exists between lithosphere, atmosphere and extending up to the ionosphere. Natural phenomena on the ground surface such as oceans variation, volcanic and seismic activities such as earthquakes, and lightning possibly generate significant impacts at ionosphere immediately by electrodynamic processes. The electric field near the ground is one of the potential quantities to explore this coupling process, especially caused by earthquake. Unfortunately, thunderstorm, dust storm or human activities also affect the measured electric field at ground. To investigate the feasibility of a network to monitor the variation of the ground electric field driven by the lightning and earthquake, a filed mill has been deployed in the NCKU campus since Dec. 2015, and luckily experienced the earthquake with a moment magnitude of 6.4 struck 28 km on 6 Feb. 2016. The recorded ground electric field deceased steadily since 1.5 days before the earthquake, and returned to normal level gradually. Moreover, this special feature can not be identified in the other period of the field test. The detail analysis is reported in this presentation.

  15. Earthquake Simulator Finds Tremor Triggers

    ScienceCinema

    Johnson, Paul

    2018-01-16

    Using a novel device that simulates earthquakes in a laboratory setting, a Los Alamos researcher has found that seismic waves-the sounds radiated from earthquakes-can induce earthquake aftershocks, often long after a quake has subsided. The research provides insight into how earthquakes may be triggered and how they recur. Los Alamos researcher Paul Johnson and colleague Chris Marone at Penn State have discovered how wave energy can be stored in certain types of granular materials-like the type found along certain fault lines across the globe-and how this stored energy can suddenly be released as an earthquake when hit by relatively small seismic waves far beyond the traditional “aftershock zone” of a main quake. Perhaps most surprising, researchers have found that the release of energy can occur minutes, hours, or even days after the sound waves pass; the cause of the delay remains a tantalizing mystery.

  16. The 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence: Environmental effects, seismic triggering thresholds and geologic legacy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quigley, Mark C.; Hughes, Matthew W.; Bradley, Brendon A.; van Ballegooy, Sjoerd; Reid, Catherine; Morgenroth, Justin; Horton, Travis; Duffy, Brendan; Pettinga, Jarg R.

    2016-03-01

    characteristics. However, the severity of a given environmental response at any given site related predominantly to ground shaking characteristics (PGA, peak ground velocities) and site conditions (water table depth, soil type, geomorphic and topographic setting) rather than earthquake Mw. In most cases, the most severe liquefaction, rockfall, cliff collapse, subsidence, flooding, tree damage, and biologic habitat changes were triggered by proximal, moderate magnitude (Mw ≤ 6.2) earthquakes on blind faults. CES environmental effects will be incompletely preserved in the geologic record and variably diagnostic of spatial and temporal earthquake clustering. Liquefaction feeder dikes in areas of severe and recurrent liquefaction will provide the best preserved and potentially most diagnostic CES features. Rockfall talus deposits and boulders will be well preserved and potentially diagnostic of the strong intensity of CES shaking, but challenging to decipher in terms of single versus multiple events. Most other phenomena will be transient (e.g., distal groundwater responses), not uniquely diagnostic of earthquakes (e.g., flooding), or more ambiguous (e.g. biologic changes). Preliminary palaeoseismic investigations in the CES region indicate recurrence of liquefaction in susceptible sediments of 100 to 300 yr, recurrence of severe rockfall event(s) of ca. 6000 to 8000 yr, and recurrence of surface rupturing on the largest CES source fault of ca. 20,000 to 30,000 yr. These data highlight the importance of utilising multiple proxy datasets in palaeoearthquake studies. The severity of environmental effects triggered during the strongest CES earthquakes was as great as or equivalent to any historic or prehistoric effects recorded in the geologic record. We suggest that the shaking caused by rupture of local blind faults in the CES comprised a 'worst case' seismic shaking scenario for parts of the Christchurch urban area. Moderate Mw blind fault earthquakes may contribute the highest

  17. The 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance: A Case Study - Using an Earthquake Anniversary to Promote Earthquake Preparedness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brocher, T. M.; Garcia, S.; Aagaard, B. T.; Boatwright, J. J.; Dawson, T.; Hellweg, M.; Knudsen, K. L.; Perkins, J.; Schwartz, D. P.; Stoffer, P. W.; Zoback, M.

    2008-12-01

    Last October 21st marked the 140th anniversary of the M6.8 1868 Hayward Earthquake, the last damaging earthquake on the southern Hayward Fault. This anniversary was used to help publicize the seismic hazards associated with the fault because: (1) the past five such earthquakes on the Hayward Fault occurred about 140 years apart on average, and (2) the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault system is the most likely (with a 31 percent probability) fault in the Bay Area to produce a M6.7 or greater earthquake in the next 30 years. To promote earthquake awareness and preparedness, over 140 public and private agencies and companies and many individual joined the public-private nonprofit 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance (1868alliance.org). The Alliance sponsored many activities including a public commemoration at Mission San Jose in Fremont, which survived the 1868 earthquake. This event was followed by an earthquake drill at Bay Area schools involving more than 70,000 students. The anniversary prompted the Silver Sentinel, an earthquake response exercise based on the scenario of an earthquake on the Hayward Fault conducted by Bay Area County Offices of Emergency Services. 60 other public and private agencies also participated in this exercise. The California Seismic Safety Commission and KPIX (CBS affiliate) produced professional videos designed forschool classrooms promoting Drop, Cover, and Hold On. Starting in October 2007, the Alliance and the U.S. Geological Survey held a sequence of press conferences to announce the release of new research on the Hayward Fault as well as new loss estimates for a Hayward Fault earthquake. These included: (1) a ShakeMap for the 1868 Hayward earthquake, (2) a report by the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasting the number of employees, employers, and wages predicted to be within areas most strongly shaken by a Hayward Fault earthquake, (3) new estimates of the losses associated with a Hayward Fault earthquake, (4) new ground motion

  18. Slip in Great Megathrust Earthquakes and its Relation to Crustal Structure as Revealed by Satellite Free-air Gravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wells, R. E.; Blakely, R. J.; Scholl, D.

    2007-12-01

    In 2003, Song and Simons and Wells et al. showed that approximately 70% of the moment released during past large, shallow subduction zone thrust earthquakes occurred beneath trench-parallel, free-air gravity lows outlining the deep-sea slope terrace and its basins. The authors suggested that the basin-centered, fore-arc gravity lows might be good predictors of high seismic slip in future earthquakes. Since 2001, ten megathrust earthquakes have occurred with magnitudes greater than Mw 7.7, including the giant, Mw 9.17 Sumatra earthquake of 2004. These earthquakes provide a robust test of the idea that seismic slip is focused beneath basin-centered gravity lows, and also the related ideas that the landward maximum gravity gradient marks the effective down-dip limit of large coseismic slip, and that intrabasin, transverse gravity highs are areas of lower slip. A compilation of seismic and geodetic slip inversions for the post-2001 earthquakes and new analyses of slip for the great Antofagasta, Jalisco, and Peru events in 1995 and 1996 indicate that more than 80% of the high-slip areas occur beneath deep-sea terrace gravity lows (DSTL), and that half of the earthquake asperities lie beneath fore-arc basins or local gravity lows. The maximum gravity gradient along the landward margin of the deep-sea terrace may mark the point where thicker overlying crust and higher temperatures on the megathrust limit the down dip extent of stick-slip behavior. Onland analogues are the mountain front of the Himalaya, which approximately marks the down-dip limit of large coseismic slip along the Main Frontal Thrust, and the front of the Taiwan Central Ranges, which coincides with the limit of slip during the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake (Mw 7.6). In the up dip direction, coseismic slip may be partitioned onto splay faults in the wedge, as occurred in the 1964 Alaska earthquake. The observed pattern of greater slip at depth beneath fore arc basins is consistent with partitioning of slip up

  19. Postearthquake relaxation and aftershock accumulation linearly related after the 2003 M 6.5 Chengkung, Taiwan, and the 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Savage, J.C.; Yu, S.-B.

    2007-01-01

    We treat both the number of earthquakes and the deformation following a mainshock as the superposition of a steady background accumulation and the post-earthquake process. The preseismic displacement and seismicity rates ru and rE are used as estimates of the background rates. Let t be the time after the mainshock, u(t) + u0 the postseismic displacement less the background accumulation rut, and ??N(t) the observed cumulative number of postseismic earthquakes less the background accumulation rE t. For the first 160 days (duration limited by the occurrence of another nearby earthquake) following the Chengkung (M 6.5, 10 December 2003, eastern Taiwan) and the first 560 days following the Parkfield (M 6.0, 28 September 2004, central California) earthquakes u(t) + u0 is a linear function of ??N(t). The aftershock accumulation ??N(t) for both earthquakes is described by the modified Omori Law d??N/dt ?? (1 + t/??)-p with p = 0.96 and ?? = 0.03 days. Although the Chengkung earthquake involved sinistral, reverse slip on a moderately dipping fault and the Parkfield earthquake right-lateral slip on a near-vertical fault, the earthquakes share an unusual feature: both occurred on faults exhibiting interseismic fault creep at the surface. The source of the observed postseismic deformation appears to be afterslip on the coseismic rupture. The linear relation between u(t) + u0 and N(t) suggests that this afterslip also generates the aftershocks. The linear relation between u(t) + u0 and ??N(t) obtains after neither the 1999 M 7.1 Hector Mine (southern California) nor the 1999 M 7.6 Chi-Chi (central Taiwan) earthquakes, neither of which occurred on fault segments exhibiting fault creep.

  20. Teaching Optical Phenomena with Tracker

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rodrigues, M.; Carvalho, P. Simeão

    2014-01-01

    Since the invention and dissemination of domestic laser pointers, observing optical phenomena is a relatively easy task. Any student can buy a laser and experience at home, in a qualitative way, the reflection, refraction and even diffraction phenomena of light. However, quantitative experiments need instruments of high precision that have a…

  1. Late Holocene megathrust earthquakes in south central Chile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garrett, Ed; Shennan, Ian; Gulliver, Pauline; Woodroffe, Sarah

    2013-04-01

    A lack of comprehensive understanding of the seismic hazards associated with a subduction zone can lead to inadequate anticipation of earthquake and tsunami magnitudes. Four hundred and fifty years of Chilean historical documents record the effects of numerous great earthquakes; however, with recurrence intervals between the largest megathrust earthquakes approaching 300 years, seismic hazard assessment requires longer chronologies. This research seeks to verify and extend historical records in south central Chile using a relative-sea level approach to palaeoseismology. Our quantitative, diatom-based approaches to relative sea-level reconstruction are successful in reconstructing the magnitude of coseismic deformation during recent, well documented Chilean earthquakes. The few disparities between my estimates and independent data highlight the possibility of shaking-induced sediment consolidation in tidal marshes. Following this encouraging confirmation of the approach, we quantify land-level changes in longer sedimentary records from the centre of the rupture zone of the 1960 Valdivia earthquake. Here, laterally extensive marsh soils abruptly overlain by low intertidal sediments attest to the occurrence of four megathrust earthquakes. Sites preserve evidence of the 1960 and 1575 earthquakes and we constrain the timing of two predecessors to 1270 to 1410 and 1050 to 1200. The sediments and biostratigraphy lack evidence for the historically documented 1737 and 1837 earthquakes.

  2. Tidal controls on earthquake size-frequency statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ide, S.; Yabe, S.; Tanaka, Y.

    2016-12-01

    The possibility that tidal stresses can trigger earthquakes is a long-standing issue in seismology. Except in some special cases, a causal relationship between seismicity and the phase of tidal stress has been rejected on the basis of studies using many small events. However, recently discovered deep tectonic tremors are highly sensitive to tidal stress levels, with the relationship being governed by a nonlinear law according to which the tremor rate increases exponentially with increasing stress; thus, slow deformation (and the probability of earthquakes) may be enhanced during periods of large tidal stress. Here, we show the influence of tidal stress on seismicity by calculating histories of tidal shear stress during the 2-week period before earthquakes. Very large earthquakes tend to occur near the time of maximum tidal stress, but this tendency is not obvious for small earthquakes. Rather, we found that tidal stress controls the earthquake size-frequency statistics; i.e., the fraction of large events increases (i.e. the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation decreases) as the tidal shear stress increases. This correlation is apparent in data from the global catalog and in relatively homogeneous regional catalogues of earthquakes in Japan. The relationship is also reasonable, considering the well-known relationship between stress and the b-value. Our findings indicate that the probability of a tiny rock failure expanding to a gigantic rupture increases with increasing tidal stress levels. This finding has clear implications for probabilistic earthquake forecasting.

  3. Earth-Atmospheric Coupling During Strong Earthquakes by Analyzing MODIS Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ouzounov, Dimitar; Williams, Robin G.; Freund, Friedemann

    2001-01-01

    Interactions between the Earth and the atmosphere during major earthquakes (M greater than 5) are the subject of this investigation. Recently a mechanism has been proposed predicting the build-up of positive ground potentials prior to strong earthquake activity. Connected phenomena include: transient conductivity of rocks, injection of currents, possibly also electromagnetic emission and light emission from high points at the surface of the Earth. To understand this process we analyze vertical atmospheric profiles, land surface and brightness (temperature) data, using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard NASA's Terra satellite launched in December 1999. MODIS covers the entire Earth every 1-2 days in 36 wavelength bands (20 visible and 16 infrared) at different spatial resolutions (250 m, 500 m, and 1 km). Using MODIS data we look for correlations between the atmospheric dynamics and solid Earth processes for the January 2001 strong earthquakes in San Salvador and India. As part of the build-up of positive grounds potential, an IR luminescence is predicted to occur in the 8-12 micrometer band. We use the MODIS data to differentiate between true "thermal" signals and IR luminescence. Indeed, on the basis of a temporal and spatial distribution analysis, a thermal anomaly pattern is found that appears to be related to the seismic activity. Aerosol content and atmospheric instability parameters also change when ground charges build up causing ion emission and leading to a thin aerosol layer over land. We analyze the aerosol content, atmospheric pressure, moisture profile and lifted index. Anomalous trends have been identified in few days prior to the main shocks. The significance of this observation should be explored further using other data sets.

  4. On the relation of earthquake stress drop and ground motion variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oth, Adrien; Miyake, Hiroe; Bindi, Dino

    2017-07-01

    One of the key parameters for earthquake source physics is stress drop since it can be directly linked to the spectral level of ground motion. Stress drop estimates from moment corner frequency analysis have been shown to be extremely variable, and this to a much larger degree than expected from the between-event ground motion variability. This discrepancy raises the question whether classically determined stress drop variability is too large, which would have significant consequences for seismic hazard analysis. We use a large high-quality data set from Japan with well-studied stress drop data to address this issue. Nonparametric and parametric reference ground motion models are derived, and the relation of between-event residuals for Japan Meteorological Agency equivalent seismic intensity and peak ground acceleration with stress drop is analyzed for crustal earthquakes. We find a clear correlation of the between-event residuals with stress drops estimates; however, while the island of Kyushu is characterized by substantially larger stress drops than Honshu, the between-event residuals do not reflect this observation, leading to the appearance of two event families with different stress drop levels yet similar range of between-event residuals. Both the within-family and between-family stress drop variations are larger than expected from the ground motion between-event variability. A systematic common analysis of these parameters holds the potential to provide important constraints on the relative robustness of different groups of data in the different parameter spaces and to improve our understanding on how much of the observed source parameter variability is likely to be true source physics variability.

  5. Theoretical and experimental studies of space-related plasma wave propagation and resonance phenomena

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crawford, F. W.

    1975-01-01

    A ten year summary was given of university research on the nature and characteristics of space related plasma resonance phenomena, whistler propagation in laboratory plasmas, and theoretical and experimental studies of plasma wave propagation. Data are also given on long delayed echoes, low frequency instabilities, ionospheric heating, and backscatter, and pulse propagation. A list is included of all conference papers, publications, and reports resulting from the study.

  6. Japanese earthquake predictability experiment with multiple runs before and after the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirata, N.; Tsuruoka, H.; Yokoi, S.

    2011-12-01

    The current Japanese national earthquake prediction program emphasizes the importance of modeling as well as monitoring for a sound scientific development of earthquake prediction research. One major focus of the current program is to move toward creating testable earthquake forecast models. For this purpose, in 2009 we joined the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) and installed, through an international collaboration, the CSEP Testing Centre, an infrastructure to encourage researchers to develop testable models for Japan. We started Japanese earthquake predictability experiment on November 1, 2009. The experiment consists of 12 categories, with 4 testing classes with different time spans (1 day, 3 months, 1 year and 3 years) and 3 testing regions called 'All Japan,' 'Mainland,' and 'Kanto.' A total of 160 models, as of August 2013, were submitted, and are currently under the CSEP official suite of tests for evaluating the performance of forecasts. We will present results of prospective forecast and testing for periods before and after the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake. Because a seismic activity has changed dramatically since the 2011 event, performances of models have been affected very much. In addition, as there is the problem of authorized catalogue related to the completeness magnitude, most models did not pass the CSEP consistency tests. Also, we will discuss the retrospective earthquake forecast experiments for aftershocks of the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake. Our aim is to describe what has turned out to be the first occasion for setting up a research environment for rigorous earthquake forecasting in Japan.

  7. Japanese earthquake predictability experiment with multiple runs before and after the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirata, N.; Tsuruoka, H.; Yokoi, S.

    2013-12-01

    The current Japanese national earthquake prediction program emphasizes the importance of modeling as well as monitoring for a sound scientific development of earthquake prediction research. One major focus of the current program is to move toward creating testable earthquake forecast models. For this purpose, in 2009 we joined the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) and installed, through an international collaboration, the CSEP Testing Centre, an infrastructure to encourage researchers to develop testable models for Japan. We started Japanese earthquake predictability experiment on November 1, 2009. The experiment consists of 12 categories, with 4 testing classes with different time spans (1 day, 3 months, 1 year and 3 years) and 3 testing regions called 'All Japan,' 'Mainland,' and 'Kanto.' A total of 160 models, as of August 2013, were submitted, and are currently under the CSEP official suite of tests for evaluating the performance of forecasts. We will present results of prospective forecast and testing for periods before and after the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake. Because a seismic activity has changed dramatically since the 2011 event, performances of models have been affected very much. In addition, as there is the problem of authorized catalogue related to the completeness magnitude, most models did not pass the CSEP consistency tests. Also, we will discuss the retrospective earthquake forecast experiments for aftershocks of the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake. Our aim is to describe what has turned out to be the first occasion for setting up a research environment for rigorous earthquake forecasting in Japan.

  8. Sedimentary Signatures of Submarine Earthquakes: Deciphering the Extent of Sediment Remobilization from the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami and 2010 Haiti Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McHugh, C. M.; Seeber, L.; Moernaut, J.; Strasser, M.; Kanamatsu, T.; Ikehara, K.; Bopp, R.; Mustaque, S.; Usami, K.; Schwestermann, T.; Kioka, A.; Moore, L. M.

    2017-12-01

    deepest, offering a comprehensive characterization of sediment remobilization by a transform earthquake. These and other modern case studies will improve our ability to recognize earthquake-related sedimentation events, to differentiate them from other causes, and to decipher in them important characteristics of the earthquakes.

  9. Volcanotectonic earthquakes induced by propagating dikes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gudmundsson, Agust

    2016-04-01

    Volcanotectonic earthquakes are of high frequency and mostly generated by slip on faults. During chamber expansion/contraction earthquakes are distribution in the chamber roof. Following magma-chamber rupture and dike injection, however, earthquakes tend to concentrate around the dike and follow its propagation path, resulting in an earthquake swarm characterised by a number of earthquakes of similar magnitudes. I distinguish between two basic processes by which propagating dikes induce earthquakes. One is due to stress concentration in the process zone at the tip of the dike, the other relates to stresses induced in the walls and surrounding rocks on either side of the dike. As to the first process, some earthquakes generated at the dike tip are related to pure extension fracturing as the tip advances and the dike-path forms. Formation of pure extension fractures normally induces non-double couple earthquakes. There is also shear fracturing in the process zone, however, particularly normal faulting, which produces double-couple earthquakes. The second process relates primarily to slip on existing fractures in the host rock induced by the driving pressure of the propagating dike. Such pressures easily reach 5-20 MPa and induce compressive and shear stresses in the adjacent host rock, which already contains numerous fractures (mainly joints) of different attitudes. In piles of lava flows or sedimentary beds the original joints are primarily vertical and horizontal. Similarly, the contacts between the layers/beds are originally horizontal. As the layers/beds become buried, the joints and contacts become gradually tilted so that the joints and contacts become oblique to the horizontal compressive stress induced by a driving pressure of the (vertical) dike. Also, most of the hexagonal (or pentagonal) columnar joints in the lava flows are, from the beginning, oblique to an intrusive sheet of any attitude. Consequently, the joints and contacts function as potential shear

  10. A post-Tohoku earthquake review of earthquake probabilities in the Southern Kanto District, Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Somerville, Paul G.

    2014-12-01

    The 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake generated an aftershock sequence that affected a large part of northern Honshu, and has given rise to widely divergent forecasts of changes in earthquake occurrence probabilities in northern Honshu. The objective of this review is to assess these forecasts as they relate to potential changes in the occurrence probabilities of damaging earthquakes in the Kanto Region. It is generally agreed that the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake increased the stress on faults in the southern Kanto district. Toda and Stein (Geophys Res Lett 686, 40: doi:10.1002, 2013) further conclude that the probability of earthquakes in the Kanto Corridor has increased by a factor of 2.5 for the time period 11 March 2013 to 10 March 2018 in the Kanto Corridor. Estimates of earthquake probabilities in a wider region of the Southern Kanto District by Nanjo et al. (Geophys J Int, doi:10.1093, 2013) indicate that any increase in the probability of earthquakes is insignificant in this larger region. Uchida et al. (Earth Planet Sci Lett 374: 81-91, 2013) conclude that the Philippine Sea plate the extends well north of the northern margin of Tokyo Bay, inconsistent with the Kanto Fragment hypothesis of Toda et al. (Nat Geosci, 1:1-6,2008), which attributes deep earthquakes in this region, which they term the Kanto Corridor, to a broken fragment of the Pacific plate. The results of Uchida and Matsuzawa (J Geophys Res 115:B07309, 2013)support the conclusion that fault creep in southern Kanto may be slowly relaxing the stress increase caused by the Tohoku earthquake without causing more large earthquakes. Stress transfer calculations indicate a large stress transfer to the Off Boso Segment as a result of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. However, Ozawa et al. (J Geophys Res 117:B07404, 2012) used onshore GPS measurements to infer large post-Tohoku creep on the plate interface in the Off-Boso region, and Uchida and Matsuzawa (ibid.) measured similar large creep off the Boso

  11. Investigating landslides caused by earthquakes - A historical review

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keefer, D.K.

    2002-01-01

    Post-earthquake field investigations of landslide occurrence have provided a basis for understanding, evaluating, and mapping the hazard and risk associated with earthquake-induced landslides. This paper traces the historical development of knowledge derived from these investigations. Before 1783, historical accounts of the occurrence of landslides in earthquake are typically so incomplete and vague that conclusions based on these accounts are of limited usefulness. For example, the number of landslides triggered by a given event is almost always greatly underestimated. The first formal, scientific post-earthquake investigation that included systematic documentation of the landslides was undertaken in the Calabria region of Italy after the 1783 earthquake swarm. From then until the mid-twentieth century, the best information on earthquake-induced landslides came from a succession of post-earthquake investigations largely carried out by formal commissions that undertook extensive ground-based field studies. Beginning in the mid-twentieth century, when the use of aerial photography became widespread, comprehensive inventories of landslide occurrence have been made for several earthquakes in the United States, Peru, Guatemala, Italy, El Salvador, Japan, and Taiwan. Techniques have also been developed for performing "retrospective" analyses years or decades after an earthquake that attempt to reconstruct the distribution of landslides triggered by the event. The additional use of Geographic Information System (GIS) processing and digital mapping since about 1989 has greatly facilitated the level of analysis that can applied to mapped distributions of landslides. Beginning in 1984, synthesis of worldwide and national data on earthquake-induced landslides have defined their general characteristics and relations between their occurrence and various geologic and seismic parameters. However, the number of comprehensive post-earthquake studies of landslides is still

  12. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989: Earthquake Occurrence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coordinated by Bakun, William H.; Prescott, William H.

    1993-01-01

    Professional Paper 1550 seeks to understand the M6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake itself. It examines how the fault that generated the earthquake ruptured, searches for and evaluates precursors that may have indicated an earthquake was coming, reviews forecasts of the earthquake, and describes the geology of the earthquake area and the crustal forces that affect this geology. Some significant findings were: * Slip during the earthquake occurred on 35 km of fault at depths ranging from 7 to 20 km. Maximum slip was approximately 2.3 m. The earthquake may not have released all of the strain stored in rocks next to the fault and indicates a potential for another damaging earthquake in the Santa Cruz Mountains in the near future may still exist. * The earthquake involved a large amount of uplift on a dipping fault plane. Pre-earthquake conventional wisdom was that large earthquakes in the Bay area occurred as horizontal displacements on predominantly vertical faults. * The fault segment that ruptured approximately coincided with a fault segment identified in 1988 as having a 30% probability of generating a M7 earthquake in the next 30 years. This was one of more than 20 relevant earthquake forecasts made in the 83 years before the earthquake. * Calculations show that the Loma Prieta earthquake changed stresses on nearby faults in the Bay area. In particular, the earthquake reduced stresses on the Hayward Fault which decreased the frequency of small earthquakes on it. * Geological and geophysical mapping indicate that, although the San Andreas Fault can be mapped as a through going fault in the epicentral region, the southwest dipping Loma Prieta rupture surface is a separate fault strand and one of several along this part of the San Andreas that may be capable of generating earthquakes.

  13. Earthquake Preparedness Among Japanese Hemodialysis Patients in Prefectures Heavily Damaged by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake.

    PubMed

    Sugisawa, Hidehiro; Shimizu, Yumiko; Kumagai, Tamaki; Sugisaki, Hiroaki; Ohira, Seiji; Shinoda, Toshio

    2017-08-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the factors related to earthquake preparedness in Japanese hemodialysis patients. We focused on three aspects of the related factors: health condition factors, social factors, and the experience of disasters. A mail survey of all the members of the Japan Association of Kidney Disease Patients in three Japanese prefectures (N = 4085) was conducted in March, 2013. We obtained 1841 valid responses for analysis. The health factors covered were: activities of daily living (ADL), mental distress, primary renal diseases, and the duration of dialysis. The social factors were: socioeconomic status, family structure, informational social support, and the provision of information regarding earthquake preparedness from dialysis facilities. The results show that the average percentage of participants that had met each criterion of earthquake preparedness in 2013 was 53%. Hemodialysis patients without disabled ADL, without mental distress, and requiring longer periods of dialysis, were likely to meet more of the earthquake preparedness criteria. Hemodialysis patients who had received informational social support from family or friends, had lived with spouse and children in comparison to living alone, and had obtained information regarding earthquake preparedness from dialysis facilities, were also likely to meet more of the earthquake preparedness criteria. © 2017 International Society for Apheresis, Japanese Society for Apheresis, and Japanese Society for Dialysis Therapy.

  14. Geoarchaeological evidence of strong prehistoric earthquakes in the New Madrid (Missouri) seismic zone

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Saucier, R.T.

    1991-04-01

    Sand blows and fissures that cover >10,500 km{sup 2} in northeastern Arkansas and southeastern Missouri attest to the severity of the 1811-1812 earthquake series in the New Madrid seismic zone. However, except for one occurence near New Madrid, Missouri, the region has been devoid of any evidence of other major shocks for at least 1.3 ka prior to 1811 and possibly for >9 ka. Stratigraphic relations and radiocarbon dating at a recently excavated archaeological site near East Prairie, Missouri, have revealed liquifaction phenomena attributable to a shock dated to within about 100 yr prior to A.D. 539 and a probablemore » second one dated between about A.D. 539 and 991.« less

  15. Environmental consequences of postulated plutonium releases from Westinghouse PFDL, Cheswick, Pennsylvania, as a result of severe natural phenomena

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    McPherson, R.B.; Watson, E.C.

    1979-06-01

    Potential environmental consequences in terms of radiation dose to people are presented for postulated accidents due to earthquakes, tornadoes, high straight-line winds, and floods. Maximum plutonium deposition values are given for significant locations around the site. All important potential exposure pathways are examined. The most likely calculated 50-year collective committed dose equivalents are all much lower than the collective dose equivalent expected from 50 years of exposure to natural background radiation and medical x-rays except Earthquake No. 4 and the 260-mph tornado. The most likely maximum residual plutonium contamination estimated to be deposited offsite following Earthquake No. 4, and themore » 200-mph and 260-mph tornadoes are above the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) proposed guideline for plutonium in the general environment of 0.2 ..mu..Ci/m/sup 2/. The deposition values following the other severe natural phenomena are below the EPA proposed guideline.« less

  16. PAGER--Rapid assessment of an earthquake?s impact

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wald, D.J.; Jaiswal, K.; Marano, K.D.; Bausch, D.; Hearne, M.

    2010-01-01

    PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response) is an automated system that produces content concerning the impact of significant earthquakes around the world, informing emergency responders, government and aid agencies, and the media of the scope of the potential disaster. PAGER rapidly assesses earthquake impacts by comparing the population exposed to each level of shaking intensity with models of economic and fatality losses based on past earthquakes in each country or region of the world. Earthquake alerts--which were formerly sent based only on event magnitude and location, or population exposure to shaking--now will also be generated based on the estimated range of fatalities and economic losses.

  17. 76 FR 19123 - National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC)

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-04-06

    ... Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) AGENCY: U.S. Geological Survey, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: Pursuant to Public Law 96-472, the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council... proposed earthquake predictions, on the completeness and scientific validity of the available data related...

  18. [Adhesive properties and related phenomena for powdered pharmaceuticals].

    PubMed

    Otsuka, A

    1998-04-01

    This report deals with adhesive properties and related phenomena of powdered materials including pharmaceuticals. The adhesive force between a powder particle and substrate as well as the tensile strength of a powder bed and tablet was measured. Various factors were found to affect powder adhesion. Physical properties such as the size, shape and surface roughness were examined. The adhesive force between a particle and substrate decreased remarkably in the presence of ultrafine particles, which is of interest since the addition of adequate amount of "glidant" causes an increase in powder fluidity. From a pharmaceutical point of view, temperature and humidity were essential to particle adhesion. For several organic substances, the adhesive force increased significantly at homologous temperatures more than ca. 0.7, suggesting the sintering mechanism to be operative. The adhsive force between polymer films and glass beads varied according to polymer and relative humidity. A close correlation of water sorbed by the polymer film with adhesive force was noted. In connection with powder fluidity, compaction properties were studied by the centrifugal and tapping methods. Apparent adhesion defined as the ratio of the adhesive force between two contacting particles to the external force acting on a particle was noted to be the primary determinant of the void fraction or the porosity of the powder bed, indicating that the probability of particle displacement essentially depended on apparent adhesion.

  19. Potentially induced earthquakes in Oklahoma, USA: links between wastewater injection and the 2011 Mw 5.7 earthquake sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keranen, Katie M.; Savage, Heather M.; Abers, Geoffrey A.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

    2013-01-01

    Significant earthquakes are increasingly occurring within the continental interior of the United States, including five of moment magnitude (Mw) ≥ 5.0 in 2011 alone. Concurrently, the volume of fluid injected into the subsurface related to the production of unconventional resources continues to rise. Here we identify the largest earthquake potentially related to injection, an Mw 5.7 earthquake in November 2011 in Oklahoma. The earthquake was felt in at least 17 states and caused damage in the epicentral region. It occurred in a sequence, with 2 earthquakes of Mw 5.0 and a prolific sequence of aftershocks. We use the aftershocks to illuminate the faults that ruptured in the sequence, and show that the tip of the initial rupture plane is within ~200 m of active injection wells and within ~1 km of the surface; 30% of early aftershocks occur within the sedimentary section. Subsurface data indicate that fluid was injected into effectively sealed compartments, and we interpret that a net fluid volume increase after 18 yr of injection lowered effective stress on reservoir-bounding faults. Significantly, this case indicates that decades-long lags between the commencement of fluid injection and the onset of induced earthquakes are possible, and modifies our common criteria for fluid-induced events. The progressive rupture of three fault planes in this sequence suggests that stress changes from the initial rupture triggered the successive earthquakes, including one larger than the first.

  20. An improved data integration algorithm to constrain the 3D displacement field induced by fast deformation phenomena tested on the Napa Valley earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polcari, Marco; Fernández, José; Albano, Matteo; Bignami, Christian; Palano, Mimmo; Stramondo, Salvatore

    2017-12-01

    In this work, we propose an improved algorithm to constrain the 3D ground displacement field induced by fast surface deformations due to earthquakes or landslides. Based on the integration of different data, we estimate the three displacement components by solving a function minimization problem from the Bayes theory. We exploit the outcomes from SAR Interferometry (InSAR), Global Positioning System (GNSS) and Multiple Aperture Interferometry (MAI) to retrieve the 3D surface displacement field. Any other source of information can be added to the processing chain in a simple way, being the algorithm computationally efficient. Furthermore, we use the intensity Pixel Offset Tracking (POT) to locate the discontinuity produced on the surface by a sudden deformation phenomenon and then improve the GNSS data interpolation. This approach allows to be independent from other information such as in-situ investigations, tectonic studies or knowledge of the data covariance matrix. We applied such a method to investigate the ground deformation field related to the 2014 Mw 6.0 Napa Valley earthquake, occurred few kilometers from the San Andreas fault system.

  1. Safety and survival in an earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    ,

    1969-01-01

    Many earth scientists in this country and abroad are focusing their studies on the search for means of predicting impending earthquakes, but, as yet, an accurate prediction of the time and place of such an event cannot be made. From past experience, however, one can assume that earthquakes will continue to harass mankind and that they will occur most frequently in the areas where they have been relatively common in the past. In the United States, earthquakes can be expected to occur most frequently in the western states, particularly in Alaska, California, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Utah, and Montana. The danger, however, is not confined to any one part of the country; major earthquakes have occurred at widely scattered locations.

  2. The use of the Finite Element method for the earthquakes modelling in different geodynamic environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castaldo, Raffaele; Tizzani, Pietro

    2016-04-01

    Many numerical models have been developed to simulate the deformation and stress changes associated to the faulting process. This aspect is an important topic in fracture mechanism. In the proposed study, we investigate the impact of the deep fault geometry and tectonic setting on the co-seismic ground deformation pattern associated to different earthquake phenomena. We exploit the impact of the structural-geological data in Finite Element environment through an optimization procedure. In this framework, we model the failure processes in a physical mechanical scenario to evaluate the kinematics associated to the Mw 6.1 L'Aquila 2009 earthquake (Italy), the Mw 5.9 Ferrara and Mw 5.8 Mirandola 2012 earthquake (Italy) and the Mw 8.3 Gorkha 2015 earthquake (Nepal). These seismic events are representative of different tectonic scenario: the normal, the reverse and thrust faulting processes, respectively. In order to simulate the kinematic of the analyzed natural phenomena, we assume, under the plane stress approximation (is defined to be a state of stress in which the normal stress, sz, and the shear stress sxz and syz, directed perpendicular to x-y plane are assumed to be zero), the linear elastic behavior of the involved media. The performed finite element procedure consist of through two stages: (i) compacting under the weight of the rock successions (gravity loading), the deformation model reaches a stable equilibrium; (ii) the co-seismic stage simulates, through a distributed slip along the active fault, the released stresses. To constrain the models solution, we exploit the DInSAR deformation velocity maps retrieved by satellite data acquired by old and new generation sensors, as ENVISAT, RADARSAT-2 and SENTINEL 1A, encompassing the studied earthquakes. More specifically, we first generate 2D several forward mechanical models, then, we compare these with the recorded ground deformation fields, in order to select the best boundaries setting and parameters. Finally

  3. Earthquake impact scale

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wald, D.J.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Marano, K.D.; Bausch, D.

    2011-01-01

    With the advent of the USGS prompt assessment of global earthquakes for response (PAGER) system, which rapidly assesses earthquake impacts, U.S. and international earthquake responders are reconsidering their automatic alert and activation levels and response procedures. To help facilitate rapid and appropriate earthquake response, an Earthquake Impact Scale (EIS) is proposed on the basis of two complementary criteria. On the basis of the estimated cost of damage, one is most suitable for domestic events; the other, on the basis of estimated ranges of fatalities, is generally more appropriate for global events, particularly in developing countries. Simple thresholds, derived from the systematic analysis of past earthquake impact and associated response levels, are quite effective in communicating predicted impact and response needed after an event through alerts of green (little or no impact), yellow (regional impact and response), orange (national-scale impact and response), and red (international response). Corresponding fatality thresholds for yellow, orange, and red alert levels are 1, 100, and 1,000, respectively. For damage impact, yellow, orange, and red thresholds are triggered by estimated losses reaching $1M, $100M, and $1B, respectively. The rationale for a dual approach to earthquake alerting stems from the recognition that relatively high fatalities, injuries, and homelessness predominate in countries in which local building practices typically lend themselves to high collapse and casualty rates, and these impacts lend to prioritization for international response. In contrast, financial and overall societal impacts often trigger the level of response in regions or countries in which prevalent earthquake resistant construction practices greatly reduce building collapse and resulting fatalities. Any newly devised alert, whether economic- or casualty-based, should be intuitive and consistent with established lexicons and procedures. Useful alerts should

  4. Napa earthquake: An earthquake in a highly connected world

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bossu, R.; Steed, R.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Roussel, F.

    2014-12-01

    The Napa earthquake recently occurred close to Silicon Valley. This makes it a good candidate to study what social networks, wearable objects and website traffic analysis (flashsourcing) can tell us about the way eyewitnesses react to ground shaking. In the first part, we compare the ratio of people publishing tweets and with the ratio of people visiting EMSC (European Mediterranean Seismological Centre) real time information website in the first minutes following the earthquake occurrence to the results published by Jawbone, which show that the proportion of people waking up depends (naturally) on the epicentral distance. The key question to evaluate is whether the proportions of inhabitants tweeting or visiting the EMSC website are similar to the proportion of people waking up as shown by the Jawbone data. If so, this supports the premise that all methods provide a reliable image of the relative ratio of people waking up. The second part of the study focuses on the reaction time for both Twitter and EMSC website access. We show, similarly to what was demonstrated for the Mineral, Virginia, earthquake (Bossu et al., 2014), that hit times on the EMSC website follow the propagation of the P waves and that 2 minutes of website traffic is sufficient to determine the epicentral location of an earthquake on the other side of the Atlantic. We also compare with the publication time of messages on Twitter. Finally, we check whether the number of tweets and the number of visitors relative to the number of inhabitants is correlated to the local level of shaking. Together these results will tell us whether the reaction of eyewitnesses to ground shaking as observed through Twitter and the EMSC website analysis is tool specific (i.e. specific to Twitter or EMSC website) or whether they do reflect people's actual reactions.

  5. Visualizing the ground motions of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chourasia, A.; Cutchin, S.; Aagaard, Brad T.

    2008-01-01

    With advances in computational capabilities and refinement of seismic wave-propagation models in the past decade large three-dimensional simulations of earthquake ground motion have become possible. The resulting datasets from these simulations are multivariate, temporal and multi-terabyte in size. Past visual representations of results from seismic studies have been largely confined to static two-dimensional maps. New visual representations provide scientists with alternate ways of viewing and interacting with these results potentially leading to new and significant insight into the physical phenomena. Visualizations can also be used for pedagogic and general dissemination purposes. We present a workflow for visual representation of the data from a ground motion simulation of the great 1906 San Francisco earthquake. We have employed state of the art animation tools for visualization of the ground motions with a high degree of accuracy and visual realism. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

  6. The October 12, 1992, Dahshur, Egypt, Earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thenhaus, P.C.; Celebi, M.; Sharp, R.V.

    1993-01-01

    We were part of an international reconnaissance team that investigated the Dahsur earthquake. This article summarizes our findings and points out how even a relatively moderate sized earthquake can cause widespread damage and a large number of casualities. 

  7. The Occurrence of the Recent Deadly Mexico Earthquakes was not that Unexpected

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flores-Marquez, L.; Sarlis, N. V.; Skordas, E. S.; Varotsos, P.; Ramírez-Rojas, A.

    2017-12-01

    Most big Mexican earthquakes occur right along the interface between the colliding Cocos and North American plates, but the two recent deadly Mexico earthquakes, i.e., the magnitude 8.2 earthquake that struck the Mexico's Chiapas state on 7 September 2017 and the magnitude 7.1 earthquake that struck central Mexico, almost 12 days later, killing more than 400 people and reducing buildings to rubble in several States happened at two different spots in the flat-slab in the middle of the Cocos tectonic plate which is considered a geologically surprising area [1]. Here, upon considering a new type of analysis termed natural time, we show that their occurrence should not in principle puzzle scientists. Earthquakes may be considered as critical phenomena, see Ref. [2] and references therein and natural time analysis [3] uncovers an order parameter for seismicity. It has been shown [2] that the fluctuations of this order parameter exhibit a universal behavior with a probability density function (pdf), which is non-Gaussian having a left exponential tail [3]. Natural time analysis of seismicity in various tectonic regions of the Mexican Pacific Coast has been made in Ref.[4]. The study of the order parameter pdf for the Chiapas area as well as for the Guerrero area shows that the occurrence of large earthquakes in these two areas was not unexpected. References A. Witze, Deadly Mexico quakes not linked, Nature 549, 442 (2017). Varotsos PA, Sarlis NV, Skordas ES, Natural Time Analysis: The new view of time. Precursory Seismic Electric Signals, Earthquakes and other Complex Time-Series (Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg 2011) P. Varotsos et al., Similarity of fluctuations in correlated systems: the case of seismicity. Phys. Rev. E 72, 041103 (2005) A. Ramírez-Rojas and E.L. Flores-Márquez, Order parameter analysis of seismicity of the Mexican Pacific coast. Physica A, 392 2507 (2013)

  8. Investigating Landslides Caused by Earthquakes A Historical Review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keefer, David K.

    Post-earthquake field investigations of landslide occurrence have provided a basis for understanding, evaluating, and mapping the hazard and risk associated withearthquake-induced landslides. This paper traces thehistorical development of knowledge derived from these investigations. Before 1783, historical accounts of the occurrence of landslides in earthquakes are typically so incomplete and vague that conclusions based on these accounts are of limited usefulness. For example, the number of landslides triggered by a given event is almost always greatly underestimated. The first formal, scientific post-earthquake investigation that included systematic documentation of the landslides was undertaken in the Calabria region of Italy after the 1783 earthquake swarm. From then until the mid-twentieth century, the best information on earthquake-induced landslides came from a succession ofpost-earthquake investigations largely carried out by formal commissions that undertook extensive ground-based field studies. Beginning in the mid-twentieth century, when the use of aerial photography became widespread, comprehensive inventories of landslide occurrence have been made for several earthquakes in the United States, Peru, Guatemala, Italy, El Salvador, Japan, and Taiwan. Techniques have also been developed for performing ``retrospective'' analyses years or decades after an earthquake that attempt to reconstruct the distribution of landslides triggered by the event. The additional use of Geographic Information System (GIS) processing and digital mapping since about 1989 has greatly facilitated the level of analysis that can applied to mapped distributions of landslides. Beginning in 1984, syntheses of worldwide and national data on earthquake-induced landslides have defined their general characteristics and relations between their occurrence and various geologic and seismic parameters. However, the number of comprehensive post-earthquake studies of landslides is still

  9. Local tsunamis and earthquake source parameters

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Geist, Eric L.; Dmowska, Renata; Saltzman, Barry

    1999-01-01

    This chapter establishes the relationship among earthquake source parameters and the generation, propagation, and run-up of local tsunamis. In general terms, displacement of the seafloor during the earthquake rupture is modeled using the elastic dislocation theory for which the displacement field is dependent on the slip distribution, fault geometry, and the elastic response and properties of the medium. Specifically, nonlinear long-wave theory governs the propagation and run-up of tsunamis. A parametric study is devised to examine the relative importance of individual earthquake source parameters on local tsunamis, because the physics that describes tsunamis from generation through run-up is complex. Analysis of the source parameters of various tsunamigenic earthquakes have indicated that the details of the earthquake source, namely, nonuniform distribution of slip along the fault plane, have a significant effect on the local tsunami run-up. Numerical methods have been developed to address the realistic bathymetric and shoreline conditions. The accuracy of determining the run-up on shore is directly dependent on the source parameters of the earthquake, which provide the initial conditions used for the hydrodynamic models.

  10. Blueschist- and Eclogite facies Pseudotachylytes: Products of Earthquakes in Collision- and Subduction zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andersen, T. B.; Austrheim, H.; John, T.; Medvedev, S.; Mair, K.

    2009-04-01

    Pseudotachylytes are the products of violent geological processes such as metorite impacts and seismic faulting. The fault-rock weakening processes leading to release of earthquakes are commonly related to phenomena such as grain size reduction and gouge formation, pressurization of pore-fluids and in some cases to melting by frictional heating. Explaining the frequently observed intermediate and deep earthquakes by brittle failure is, however, inherently difficult to reconcile because of extremely high normal stresses occuring at depth. In recent years several mechanisms for seismic events on deep faults have been suggested. These include: a) The most commonly accepted mechanism, dehydration embrittlement coupled to prograde metamorphic dehydration of wet rocks, such as serpentinites, at depth. b) Grain-size dependent flow-laws coupled with shear heating instability has been suggested as an alternative to explain repeated seismic faulting in Wadati-Benioff zones. c) Self-localized-thermal-runaway (SLTR) has been forwarded as a mechanism for ultimate failure of visco-elastic materials and as mechanism to explain the co-existence of shear zones and pseudotachylyte fault veins formed at eclogite facies conditions. All these mechanism point to the importance of metamorphism and/or metasomatism in understanding the mechanism(s) of intermediate- and deep earthquakes. Exhumed high to ultra-high pressure [(U)HP] metamorphic rocks are recognized in many orogenic belts. These complexes provide avenues to study a number of important products of geological processes including earthquakes with hypocentres at great depths. (U)HP co-seismic fault rocks are difficult to find in the field; nevertheless, a number of occurrences of co-seismic fault rocks from such complexes have been described after the initial discovery of such rocks in Norway (see: Austrheim and Boundy, Science 1994). In this talk we review some observations and interpretations based on these hitherto rarely

  11. Electromagnetic emission memory phenomena related to LiF ionic crystal deformation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mavromatou, C.; Tombras, G. S.; Ninos, D.; Hadjicontis, V.

    2008-04-01

    During the uniaxial compression of LiF ionic monocrystals, acoustic and electromagnetic emissions (EME) are detected. We observed that when the compression is performed in successive loading, unloading cycles and these emissions are being monitored, no new emissions will occur unless the maximum stress of the previous cycle is exceeded, meaning that the material presents memory characteristics. This is observed not only for the acoustic emission (AE), which is the well known Kaiser effect, but for the EME as well. In other words, the material appears to memorize and reveal the previously maximum stress it suffered while being deformed. The importance of an electromagnetic memory feature of a material can be related to various applications in material science, especially when the detection of AE is not feasible or gives false alert. Such cases may very well be earthquakes' predictive indications, monitoring of mines' stability, imminent landslides, etc.

  12. Induced seismicity provides insight into why earthquake ruptures stop.

    PubMed

    Galis, Martin; Ampuero, Jean Paul; Mai, P Martin; Cappa, Frédéric

    2017-12-01

    Injection-induced earthquakes pose a serious seismic hazard but also offer an opportunity to gain insight into earthquake physics. Currently used models relating the maximum magnitude of injection-induced earthquakes to injection parameters do not incorporate rupture physics. We develop theoretical estimates, validated by simulations, of the size of ruptures induced by localized pore-pressure perturbations and propagating on prestressed faults. Our model accounts for ruptures growing beyond the perturbed area and distinguishes self-arrested from runaway ruptures. We develop a theoretical scaling relation between the largest magnitude of self-arrested earthquakes and the injected volume and find it consistent with observed maximum magnitudes of injection-induced earthquakes over a broad range of injected volumes, suggesting that, although runaway ruptures are possible, most injection-induced events so far have been self-arrested ruptures.

  13. Induced seismicity provides insight into why earthquake ruptures stop

    PubMed Central

    Galis, Martin; Ampuero, Jean Paul; Mai, P. Martin; Cappa, Frédéric

    2017-01-01

    Injection-induced earthquakes pose a serious seismic hazard but also offer an opportunity to gain insight into earthquake physics. Currently used models relating the maximum magnitude of injection-induced earthquakes to injection parameters do not incorporate rupture physics. We develop theoretical estimates, validated by simulations, of the size of ruptures induced by localized pore-pressure perturbations and propagating on prestressed faults. Our model accounts for ruptures growing beyond the perturbed area and distinguishes self-arrested from runaway ruptures. We develop a theoretical scaling relation between the largest magnitude of self-arrested earthquakes and the injected volume and find it consistent with observed maximum magnitudes of injection-induced earthquakes over a broad range of injected volumes, suggesting that, although runaway ruptures are possible, most injection-induced events so far have been self-arrested ruptures. PMID:29291250

  14. Operational earthquake forecasting can enhance earthquake preparedness

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jordan, T.H.; Marzocchi, W.; Michael, A.J.; Gerstenberger, M.C.

    2014-01-01

    We cannot yet predict large earthquakes in the short term with much reliability and skill, but the strong clustering exhibited in seismic sequences tells us that earthquake probabilities are not constant in time; they generally rise and fall over periods of days to years in correlation with nearby seismic activity. Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about these time‐dependent probabilities to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The goal of OEF is to inform the decisions that people and organizations must continually make to mitigate seismic risk and prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes on time scales from days to decades. To fulfill this role, OEF must provide a complete description of the seismic hazard—ground‐motion exceedance probabilities as well as short‐term rupture probabilities—in concert with the long‐term forecasts of probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis (PSHA).

  15. Switching Phenomena

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stanley, H. E.; Buldyrev, S. V.; Franzese, G.; Havlin, S.; Mallamace, F.; Mazza, M. G.; Kumar, P.; Plerou, V.; Preis, T.; Stokely, K.; Xu, L.

    One challenge of biology, medicine, and economics is that the systems treated by these serious scientific disciplines can suddenly "switch" from one behavior to another, even though they possess no perfect metronome in time. As if by magic, out of nothing but randomness one finds remarkably fine-tuned processes in time. The past century has, philosophically, been concerned with placing aside the human tendency to see the universe as a fine-tuned machine. Here we will address the challenge of uncovering how, through randomness (albeit, as we shall see, strongly correlated randomness), one can arrive at some of the many temporal patterns in physics, economics, and medicine and even begin to characterize the switching phenomena that enable a system to pass from one state to another. We discuss some applications of correlated randomness to understanding switching phenomena in various fields. Specifically, we present evidence from experiments and from computer simulations supporting the hypothesis that water's anomalies are related to a switching point (which is not unlike the "tipping point" immortalized by Malcolm Gladwell), and that the bubbles in economic phenomena that occur on all scales are not "outliers" (another Gladwell immortalization).

  16. Simulating Earthquakes for Science and Society: New Earthquake Visualizations Ideal for Use in Science Communication

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Groot, R. M.; Benthien, M. L.

    2006-12-01

    The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has been developing groundbreaking computer modeling capabilities for studying earthquakes. These visualizations were initially shared within the scientific community but have recently have gained visibility via television news coverage in Southern California. These types of visualizations are becoming pervasive in the teaching and learning of concepts related to earth science. Computers have opened up a whole new world for scientists working with large data sets, and students can benefit from the same opportunities (Libarkin &Brick, 2002). Earthquakes are ideal candidates for visualization products: they cannot be predicted, are completed in a matter of seconds, occur deep in the earth, and the time between events can be on a geologic time scale. For example, the southern part of the San Andreas fault has not seen a major earthquake since about 1690, setting the stage for an earthquake as large as magnitude 7.7 -- the "big one." Since no one has experienced such an earthquake, visualizations can help people understand the scale of such an event. Accordingly, SCEC has developed a revolutionary simulation of this earthquake, with breathtaking visualizations that are now being distributed. According to Gordin and Pea (1995), theoretically visualization should make science accessible, provide means for authentic inquiry, and lay the groundwork to understand and critique scientific issues. This presentation will discuss how the new SCEC visualizations and other earthquake imagery achieve these results, how they fit within the context of major themes and study areas in science communication, and how the efficacy of these tools can be improved.

  17. Aura phenomena during syncope.

    PubMed

    Benke, T; Hochleitner, M; Bauer, G

    1997-01-01

    We studied the frequency and clinical characteristics of aura phenomena in 60 patients with cardiac and 40 subjects with vasovagal syncopes. The majority (93%) of all syncope patients recalled having experienced an aura. Aura phenomena were similar in both groups and were mostly compound auras comprising epigastric, vertiginous, visual, or somatosensory experiences, but were more detailed in the noncardiac group. The localizing significance of auras preceding a syncope was generally poor. Although hard to distinguish from epileptic auras from their structure and shape, syncope-related auras lacked symptoms that are commonly reported after epileptic seizures such as tastes, smells, déjà vu phenomena, scenic visual perceptions, and speech impairments. A detailed anamnestic exploration of auras seems worthwhile in unexplained disorders of consciousness.

  18. Application of the region-time-length algorithm to study of earthquake precursors in the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar borders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Puangjaktha, P.; Pailoplee, S.

    2018-04-01

    In order to examine the precursory seismic quiescence of upcoming hazardous earthquakes, the seismicity data available in the vicinity of the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar borders was analyzed using the Region-Time-Length (RTL) algorithm based statistical technique. The utilized earthquake data were obtained from the International Seismological Centre. Thereafter, the homogeneity and completeness of the catalogue were improved. After performing iterative tests with different values of the r0 and t0 parameters, those of r0 = 120 km and t0 = 2 yr yielded reasonable estimates of the anomalous RTL scores, in both temporal variation and spatial distribution, of a few years prior to five out of eight strong-to-major recognized earthquakes. Statistical evaluation of both the correlation coefficient and stochastic process for the RTL were checked and revealed that the RTL score obtained here excluded artificial or random phenomena. Therefore, the prospective earthquake sources mentioned here should be recognized and effective mitigation plans should be provided.

  19. Space-borne Observations of Atmospheric Pre-Earthquake Signals in Seismically Active Areas: Case Study for Greece 2008-2009

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ouzounov, D. P.; Pulinets, S. A.; Davidenko, D. A.; Kafatos, M.; Taylor, P. T.

    2013-01-01

    We are conducting theoretical studies and practical validation of atm osphere/ionosphere phenomena preceding major earthquakes. Our approach is based on monitoring of two physical parameters from space: outgoi ng long-wavelength radiation (OLR) on the top of the atmosphere and e lectron and electron density variations in the ionosphere via GPS Tot al Electron Content (GPS/TEC). We retrospectively analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of OLR an GPS/TEC parameters characterizing the state of the atmosphere and ionosphere several days before four m ajor earthquakes (M>6) in Greece for 2008-2009: M6.9 of 02.12.08, M6. 2 02.20.08; M6.4 of 06.08.08 and M6.4 of 07.01.09.We found anomalous behavior before all of these events (over land and sea) over regions o f maximum stress. We expect that our analysis reveal the underlying p hysics of pre-earthquake signals associated with some of the largest earthquakes in Greece.

  20. Focal mechanisms of earthquakes in Mongolia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sodnomsambuu, D.; Natalia, R.; Gangaadorj, B.; Munkhuu, U.; Davaasuren, G.; Danzansan, E.; Yan, R.; Valentina, M.; Battsetseg, B.

    2011-12-01

    Focal mechanism data provide information on the relative magnitudes of the principal stresses, so that a tectonic regime can be assigned. Especially such information is useful for the study of intraplate seismic active regions. A study of earthquake focal mechanisms in the territory of Mongolia as landlocked and intraplate region was conducted. We present map of focal mechanisms of earthquakes with M4.5 which occurred in Mongolia and neighboring regions. Focal mechanisms solutions were constrained by the first motion solutions, as well as by waveform modeling, particularly CMT solutions. Four earthquakes have been recorded in Mongolia in XX century with magnitude more than 8, the 1905 M7.9 Tsetserleg and M8.4 Bolnai earthquakes, the 1931 M8.0 Fu Yun earthquake, the 1957 M8.1 Gobi-Altai earthquake. However the map of focal mechanisms of earthquakes in Mongolia allows seeing all seismic active structures: Gobi Altay, Mongolian Altay, active fringe of Hangay dome, Hentii range etc. Earthquakes in the most of Mongolian territory and neighboring China regions are characterized by strike-slip and reverse movements. Strike-slip movements also are typical for earthquakes in Altay Range in Russia. The north of Mongolia and south part of the Baikal area is a region where have been occurred earthquakes with different focal mechanisms. This region is a zone of the transition between compressive regime associated to India-Eurasian collision and extensive structures localized in north of the country as Huvsgul area and Baykal rift. Earthquakes in the Baikal basin itself are characterized by normal movements. Earthquakes in Trans-Baikal zone and NW of Mongolia are characterized dominantly by strike-slip movements. Analysis of stress-axis orientations, the tectonic stress tensor is presented. The map of focal mechanisms of earthquakes in Mongolia could be useful tool for researchers in their study on Geodynamics of Central Asia, particularly of Mongolian and Baikal regions.

  1. Earthquake hazards on the cascadia subduction zone.

    PubMed

    Heaton, T H; Hartzell, S H

    1987-04-10

    Large subduction earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone pose a potential seismic hazard. Very young oceanic lithosphere (10 million years old) is being subducted beneath North America at a rate of approximately 4 centimeters per year. The Cascadia subduction zone shares many characteristics with subduction zones in southern Chile, southwestern Japan, and Colombia, where comparably young oceanic lithosphere is also subducting. Very large subduction earthquakes, ranging in energy magnitude (M(w)) between 8 and 9.5, have occurred along these other subduction zones. If the Cascadia subduction zone is also storing elastic energy, a sequence of several great earthquakes (M(w) 8) or a giant earthquake (M(w) 9) would be necessary to fill this 1200-kilometer gap. The nature of strong ground motions recorded during subduction earthquakes of M(w) less than 8.2 is discussed. Strong ground motions from even larger earthquakes (M(w) up to 9.5) are estimated by simple simulations. If large subduction earthquakes occur in the Pacific Northwest, relatively strong shaking can be expected over a large region. Such earthquakes may also be accompanied by large local tsunamis.

  2. Fault Branching and Long-Term Earthquake Rupture Scenario for Strike-Slip Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klinger, Y.; CHOI, J. H.; Vallage, A.

    2017-12-01

    Careful examination of surface rupture for large continental strike-slip earthquakes reveals that for the majority of earthquakes, at least one major branch is involved in the rupture pattern. Often, branching might be either related to the location of the epicenter or located toward the end of the rupture, and possibly related to the stopping of the rupture. In this work, we examine large continental earthquakes that show significant branches at different scales and for which ground surface rupture has been mapped in great details. In each case, rupture conditions are described, including dynamic parameters, past earthquakes history, and regional stress orientation, to see if the dynamic stress field would a priori favor branching. In one case we show that rupture propagation and branching are directly impacted by preexisting geological structures. These structures serve as pathways for the rupture attempting to propagate out of its shear plane. At larger scale, we show that in some cases, rupturing a branch might be systematic, hampering possibilities for the development of a larger seismic rupture. Long-term geomorphology hints at the existence of a strong asperity in the zone where the rupture branched off the main fault. There, no evidence of throughgoing rupture could be seen along the main fault, while the branch is well connected to the main fault. This set of observations suggests that for specific configurations, some rupture scenarios involving systematic branching are more likely than others.

  3. Catalog of Hawaiian earthquakes, 1823-1959

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Klein, Fred W.; Wright, Thomas L.

    2000-01-01

    This catalog of more than 17,000 Hawaiian earthquakes (of magnitude greater than or equal to 5), principally located on the Island of Hawaii, from 1823 through the third quarter of 1959 is designed to expand our ability to evaluate seismic hazard in Hawaii, as well as our knowledge of Hawaiian seismic rhythms as they relate to eruption cycles at Kilauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes and to subcrustal earthquake patterns related to the tectonic evolution of the Hawaiian chain.

  4. National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program; time to expand

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steinbrugge, K.V.

    1990-01-01

    All of us in earthquake engineering, seismology, and many related disciplines have been directly or indirectly affected by the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP). This program was the result of the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-124). With well over a decade of experience, should this expression of public policy now take a different or expanded role? 

  5. The aftershock signature of supershear earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Bouchon, Michel; Karabulut, Hayrullah

    2008-06-06

    Recent studies show that earthquake faults may rupture at speeds exceeding the shear wave velocity of rocks. This supershear rupture produces in the ground a seismic shock wave similar to the sonic boom produced by a supersonic airplane. This shock wave may increase the destruction caused by the earthquake. We report that supershear earthquakes are characterized by a specific pattern of aftershocks: The fault plane itself is remarkably quiet whereas aftershocks cluster off the fault, on secondary structures that are activated by the supershear rupture. The post-earthquake quiescence of the fault shows that friction is relatively uniform over supershear segments, whereas the activation of off-fault structures is explained by the shock wave radiation, which produces high stresses over a wide zone surrounding the fault.

  6. Earthquake Education in Prime Time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Groot, R.; Abbott, P.; Benthien, M.

    2004-12-01

    Since 2001, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has collaborated on several video production projects that feature important topics related to earthquake science, engineering, and preparedness. These projects have also fostered many fruitful and sustained partnerships with a variety of organizations that have a stake in hazard education and preparedness. The Seismic Sleuths educational video first appeared in the spring season 2001 on Discovery Channel's Assignment Discovery. Seismic Sleuths is based on a highly successful curriculum package developed jointly by the American Geophysical Union and The Department of Homeland Security Federal Emergency Management Agency. The California Earthquake Authority (CEA) and the Institute for Business and Home Safety supported the video project. Summer Productions, a company with a reputation for quality science programming, produced the Seismic Sleuths program in close partnership with scientists, engineers, and preparedness experts. The program has aired on the National Geographic Channel as recently as Fall 2004. Currently, SCEC is collaborating with Pat Abbott, a geology professor at San Diego State University (SDSU) on the video project Written In Stone: Earthquake Country - Los Angeles. Partners on this project include the California Seismic Safety Commission, SDSU, SCEC, CEA, and the Insurance Information Network of California. This video incorporates live-action demonstrations, vivid animations, and a compelling host (Abbott) to tell the story about earthquakes in the Los Angeles region. The Written in Stone team has also developed a comprehensive educator package that includes the video, maps, lesson plans, and other supporting materials. We will present the process that facilitates the creation of visually effective, factually accurate, and entertaining video programs. We acknowledge the need to have a broad understanding of the literature related to communication, media studies, science education, and

  7. Application of τc*Pd in earthquake early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Po-Lun; Lin, Ting-Li; Wu, Yih-Min

    2015-03-01

    Rapid assessment of damage potential and size of an earthquake at the station is highly demanded for onsite earthquake early warning. We study the application of τc*Pd for its estimation on the earthquake size using 123 events recorded by the borehole stations of KiK-net in Japan. The new type of earthquake size determined by τc*Pd is more related to the damage potential. We find that τc*Pd provides another parameter to measure the size of earthquake and the threshold to warn strong ground motion.

  8. Earthquakes for Kids

    MedlinePlus

    ... across a fault to learn about past earthquakes. Science Fair Projects A GPS instrument measures slow movements of the ground. Become an Earthquake Scientist Cool Earthquake Facts Today in Earthquake History A scientist stands in ...

  9. Earthquake Rate Model 2.2 of the 2007 Working Group for California Earthquake Probabilities, Appendix D: Magnitude-Area Relationships

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stein, Ross S.

    2007-01-01

    Summary To estimate the down-dip coseismic fault dimension, W, the Executive Committee has chosen the Nazareth and Hauksson (2004) method, which uses the 99% depth of background seismicity to assign W. For the predicted earthquake magnitude-fault area scaling used to estimate the maximum magnitude of an earthquake rupture from a fault's length, L, and W, the Committee has assigned equal weight to the Ellsworth B (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 2003) and Hanks and Bakun (2002) (as updated in 2007) equations. The former uses a single relation; the latter uses a bilinear relation which changes slope at M=6.65 (A=537 km2).

  10. Frog Swarms: Earthquake Precursors or False Alarms?

    PubMed Central

    Grant, Rachel A.; Conlan, Hilary

    2013-01-01

    Simple Summary Media reports linking unusual animal behaviour with earthquakes can potentially create false alarms and unnecessary anxiety among people that live in earthquake risk zones. Recently large frog swarms in China and elsewhere have been reported as earthquake precursors in the media. By examining international media reports of frog swarms since 1850 in comparison to earthquake data, it was concluded that frog swarms are naturally occurring dispersal behaviour of juveniles and are not associated with earthquakes. However, the media in seismic risk areas may be more likely to report frog swarms, and more likely to disseminate reports on frog swarms after earthquakes have occurred, leading to an apparent link between frog swarms and earthquakes. Abstract In short-term earthquake risk forecasting, the avoidance of false alarms is of utmost importance to preclude the possibility of unnecessary panic among populations in seismic hazard areas. Unusual animal behaviour prior to earthquakes has been reported for millennia but has rarely been scientifically documented. Recently large migrations or unusual behaviour of amphibians have been linked to large earthquakes, and media reports of large frog and toad migrations in areas of high seismic risk such as Greece and China have led to fears of a subsequent large earthquake. However, at certain times of year large migrations are part of the normal behavioural repertoire of amphibians. News reports of “frog swarms” from 1850 to the present day were examined for evidence that this behaviour is a precursor to large earthquakes. It was found that only two of 28 reported frog swarms preceded large earthquakes (Sichuan province, China in 2008 and 2010). All of the reported mass migrations of amphibians occurred in late spring, summer and autumn and appeared to relate to small juvenile anurans (frogs and toads). It was concluded that most reported “frog swarms” are actually normal behaviour, probably caused by

  11. Geochemical challenge to earthquake prediction.

    PubMed Central

    Wakita, H

    1996-01-01

    The current status of geochemical and groundwater observations for earthquake prediction in Japan is described. The development of the observations is discussed in relation to the progress of the earthquake prediction program in Japan. Three major findings obtained from our recent studies are outlined. (i) Long-term radon observation data over 18 years at the SKE (Suikoen) well indicate that the anomalous radon change before the 1978 Izu-Oshima-kinkai earthquake can with high probability be attributed to precursory changes. (ii) It is proposed that certain sensitive wells exist which have the potential to detect precursory changes. (iii) The appearance and nonappearance of coseismic radon drops at the KSM (Kashima) well reflect changes in the regional stress state of an observation area. In addition, some preliminary results of chemical changes of groundwater prior to the 1995 Kobe (Hyogo-ken nanbu) earthquake are presented. PMID:11607665

  12. Streamflow and water well responses to earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Montgomery, David R; Manga, Michael

    2003-06-27

    Earthquake-induced crustal deformation and ground shaking can alter stream flow and water levels in wells through consolidation of surficial deposits, fracturing of solid rocks, aquifer deformation, and the clearing of fracture-filling material. Although local conditions affect the type and amplitude of response, a compilation of reported observations of hydrological response to earthquakes indicates that the maximum distance to which changes in stream flow and water levels in wells have been reported is related to earthquake magnitude. Detectable streamflow changes occur in areas within tens to hundreds of kilometers of the epicenter, whereas changes in groundwater levels in wells can occur hundreds to thousands of kilometers from earthquake epicenters.

  13. Remote Imaging of Earthquake Characteristics Along Oceanic Transforms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cleveland, M.; Ammon, C. J.

    2014-12-01

    Compared with subduction and continental transform systems, many characteristics of oceanic transform faults (OTF) are better defined (first-order structure and composition, thermal properties, etc.). Still, many aspects of earthquake behavior along OTFs remain poorly understood as a result of their relative remoteness. But the substantial aseismic deformation (averaging roughly 85%) that occurs along OTFs and the implied interaction of aseismic with seismic deformation is an opportunity to explore fundamental earthquake nucleation and rupture processes. However, the study of OTF earthquake properties is not easy because these faults are often located in remote regions, lacking nearby seismic networks. Thus, many standard network-based seismic approaches are infeasible, but some can be adapted to the effort. For example, double-difference methods applied to cross-correlation measured Rayleigh wave time shifts is an effective tool to provide greatly improved relative epicentroid locations, origin-time shifts, and relative event magnitudes for earthquakes in remote regions. The same comparative waveform measurements can provide insight into rupture directivity of the larger OTF events. In this study, we calculate improved relative earthquake locations and magnitudes of earthquakes along the Blanco Fracture Zone in the northeast Pacific Ocean and compare and contrast that work with a study of the more remote Menard Transform Fault (MTF), located in the southeast Pacific Ocean. For the Blanco, we work exclusively with Rayleigh (R1) observations exploiting the dense networks in the northern hemisphere. For the MTF, we combine R1 with Love (G1) observations to map and to analyze the distribution of strong asperities along this remote, 200-km-long fault. Specifically, we attempt to better define the relationship between observed near-transform normal and vertical strike-slip earthquakes in the vicinity of the MTF. We test our ability to use distant observations (the

  14. Hydroacoustic monitoring of seafloor earthquake and cryogenic sounds in the Bransfield Strait, Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, M.; Lee, W.; Dziak, R. P.; Matsumoto, H.; Bohnenstiehl, D. R.; Haxel, J. H.

    2008-12-01

    To record signals from submarine tectonic activity and ice-generated sound around the Antarctic Peninsula, we have operated an Autonomous Underwater Hydrophone (AUH) array from 2005 to 2007. The objectives of this experiment are to improve detection capability in the study area which is poorly covered by global seismic networks and to reveal characteristics of cryogenic sound which is hard to detect using low-latitude hydrophone array. NEIC has reported ~10-20 earthquakes per year in this region, while the efficiency of sound propagation in the ocean allows detection of greater than two orders of magnitude more earthquakes. A total of 5,160 earthquakes including 12 earthquake swarms are located during the deployment period. A total of 6 earthquake swarms (3,008) occurred in the western part of the Bransfield Strait (WBS), show an epicenter migration of 1-2 km/hr, exhibit a deficiency in high-frequency energy, and occurred near submarine volcanic centers along the back-arc rift axis. Cross-correlation analysis with ocean and solid earth tides indicates the WBS seismicity is modulated by tidal stress, where volcanic earthquake activity reflects variations in tidal forcing than do tectonic earthquakes. On-the-other hand, earthquake swarms from the eastern part of the BS (EBS) show features typical of tectonic earthquakes such as widely distributed epicenters with no clear spatio-temporal pattern and full-spectrum (broadband) signals. These results are consistent with previous crustal models indicating the WBS is undergoing volcanically dominated rifting, whereas rifting in the EBS is tectonically driven. A total of 5,929 ice-generated signals were also derived from the data and are the first detailed observation of various cryogenic phenomena in the region. These cryogenic signals exhibit unusual, tremor-like signals with a high-frequency fundamental (~40 Hz) and 5-6 overtones caused by iceberg resonance, as well as impulsive, short-duration "icequakes" caused by ice

  15. Evidence for late Holocene relative sea-level fall from reconnaissance stratigraphical studies in an area of earthquake-subsided intertidal deposits, Isla Chiloé, southern Chile

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Frostick, L.E.; Steel, R.J.; Bartsch-Winkler, S.; Schmoll, H.R.

    1993-01-01

    At Río Pudeto and Quetalmahue, two estuaries along the northern shore of Isla Chiloé that subsided as much as 2 m in the great 1960 earthquake, reconnaissance stratigraphical studies reveal evidence of a regressive, nearshore marine sequence. The intertidal deposits include a peat-bearing, high-intertidal marsh sequence as thick as 1.4 m overlying shell- and foraminifera-bearing silt and clay layers presumed to represent a deeper water, low-intertidal environment.Stratigraphy indicates a relative sea-level fall since about 5000 years BP as evidenced by radiocarbon ages that constrain the peat-bearing sequences. Locally, low-intertidal silt and clay overlie high-intertidal peat layers, but such minor transgressions cannot be correlated from site to site. At Río Pudeto, the youngest foraminifera-bearing silt deposit is no younger than 1200 years BP. The youngest age of shells at Quetalmahue is about 2600 years BP. The oldest peat-bearing deposits that are not overlain by silt deposits are about 1350 years BP at Río Pudeto, and as old as 4900 years BP at Quetalmahue. At Río Pudeto, peat-bearing deposits, which are overlain by silt and clay, range in age from 760 to 5430 years BP, and at Quetalmahue from 290 to 5290 years BP. A beach terrace on the northwest coast of the Isla is estimated to have been emergent since 1150 + 130 years ago.Although some relatively abrupt transgressions may be due to sudden coseismic subsidence, data are not sufficient to document regional subsidence during individual plate-interface earthquakes. Seven earthquakes in south central Chile since 1520, especially those that occurred in 1575, 1737, and 1837, are thought to have been of a magnitude comparable to that of the 1960 earthquake. Although the sedimentological effects of the 1960 earthquake on the intertidal zone were dramatic, only limited evidence of possible historic earthquakes is found on Isla Chiloé and nearby islands; the ages and displacements of these earthquakes are

  16. Defining "Acceptable Risk" for Earthquakes Worldwide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tucker, B.

    2001-05-01

    The greatest and most rapidly growing earthquake risk for mortality is in developing countries. Further, earthquake risk management actions of the last 50 years have reduced the average lethality of earthquakes in earthquake-threatened industrialized countries. (This is separate from the trend of the increasing fiscal cost of earthquakes there.) Despite these clear trends, every new earthquake in developing countries is described in the media as a "wake up" call, announcing the risk these countries face. GeoHazards International (GHI) works at both the community and the policy levels to try to reduce earthquake risk. GHI reduces death and injury by helping vulnerable communities recognize their risk and the methods to manage it, by raising awareness of its risk, building local institutions to manage that risk, and strengthening schools to protect and train the community's future generations. At the policy level, GHI, in collaboration with research partners, is examining whether "acceptance" of these large risks by people in these countries and by international aid and development organizations explains the lack of activity in reducing these risks. The goal of this pilot project - The Global Earthquake Safety Initiative (GESI) - is to develop and evaluate a means of measuring the risk and the effectiveness of risk mitigation actions in the world's largest, most vulnerable cities: in short, to develop an earthquake risk index. One application of this index is to compare the risk and the risk mitigation effort of "comparable" cities. By this means, Lima, for example, can compare the risk of its citizens dying due to earthquakes with the risk of citizens in Santiago and Guayaquil. The authorities of Delhi and Islamabad can compare the relative risk from earthquakes of their school children. This index can be used to measure the effectiveness of alternate mitigation projects, to set goals for mitigation projects, and to plot progress meeting those goals. The preliminary

  17. Distant, delayed and ancient earthquake-induced landslides

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Havenith, Hans-Balder; Torgoev, Almaz; Braun, Anika; Schlögel, Romy; Micu, Mihai

    2016-04-01

    On the basis of a new classification of seismically induced landslides we outline particular effects related to the delayed and distant triggering of landslides. Those cannot be predicted by state-of-the-art methods. First, for about a dozen events the 'predicted' extension of the affected area is clearly underestimated. The most problematic cases are those for which far-distant triggering of landslides had been reported, such as for the 1988 Saguenay earthquake. In Central Asia reports for such cases are known for areas marked by a thick cover of loess. One possible contributing effect could be a low-frequency resonance of the thick soils induced by distant earthquakes, especially those in the Pamir - Hindu Kush seismic region. Such deep focal and high magnitude (>>7) earthquakes are also found in Europe, first of all in the Vrancea region (Romania). For this area and others in Central Asia we computed landslide event sizes related to scenario earthquakes with M>7.5. The second particular and challenging type of triggering is the one delayed with respect to the main earthquake event: case histories have been reported for the Racha earthquake in 1991 when several larger landslides only started moving 2 or 3 days after the main shock. Similar observations were also made after other earthquake events in the U.S., such as after the 1906 San Francisco, the 1949 Tacoma, the 1959 Hebgen Lake and the 1983 Bora Peak earthquakes. Here, we will present a series of detailed examples of (partly monitored) mass movements in Central Asia that mainly developed after earthquakes, some even several weeks after the main shock: e.g. the Tektonik and Kainama landslides triggered in 1992 and 2004, respectively. We believe that the development of the massive failures is a consequence of the opening of tension cracks during the seismic shaking and their filling up with water during precipitations that followed the earthquakes. The third particular aspect analysed here is the use of large

  18. Earthquakes of Garhwal Himalaya region of NW Himalaya, India: A study of relocated earthquakes and their seismogenic source and stress

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    R, A. P.; Paul, A.; Singh, S.

    2017-12-01

    Since the continent-continent collision 55 Ma, the Himalaya has accommodated 2000 km of convergence along its arc. The strain energy is being accumulated at a rate of 37-44 mm/yr and releases at time as earthquakes. The Garhwal Himalaya is located at the western side of a Seismic Gap, where a great earthquake is overdue atleast since 200 years. This seismic gap (Central Seismic Gap: CSG) with 52% probability for a future great earthquake is located between the rupture zones of two significant/great earthquakes, viz. the 1905 Kangra earthquake of M 7.8 and the 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake of M 8.0; and the most recent one, the 2015 Gorkha earthquake of M 7.8 is in the eastern side of this seismic gap (CSG). The Garhwal Himalaya is one of the ideal locations of the Himalaya where all the major Himalayan structures and the Himalayan Seimsicity Belt (HSB) can ably be described and studied. In the present study, we are presenting the spatio-temporal analysis of the relocated local micro-moderate earthquakes, recorded by a seismicity monitoring network, which is operational since, 2007. The earthquake locations are relocated using the HypoDD (double difference hypocenter method for earthquake relocations) program. The dataset from July, 2007- September, 2015 have been used in this study to estimate their spatio-temporal relationships, moment tensor (MT) solutions for the earthquakes of M>3.0, stress tensors and their interactions. We have also used the composite focal mechanism solutions for small earthquakes. The majority of the MT solutions show thrust type mechanism and located near the mid-crustal-ramp (MCR) structure of the detachment surface at 8-15 km depth beneath the outer lesser Himalaya and higher Himalaya regions. The prevailing stress has been identified to be compressional towards NNE-SSW, which is the direction of relative plate motion between the India and Eurasia continental plates. The low friction coefficient estimated along with the stress inversions

  19. Earthquake chemical precursors in groundwater: a review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paudel, Shukra Raj; Banjara, Sushant Prasad; Wagle, Amrita; Freund, Friedemann T.

    2018-03-01

    We review changes in groundwater chemistry as precursory signs for earthquakes. In particular, we discuss pH, total dissolved solids (TDS), electrical conductivity, and dissolved gases in relation to their significance for earthquake prediction or forecasting. These parameters are widely believed to vary in response to seismic and pre-seismic activity. However, the same parameters also vary in response to non-seismic processes. The inability to reliably distinguish between changes caused by seismic or pre-seismic activities from changes caused by non-seismic activities has impeded progress in earthquake science. Short-term earthquake prediction is unlikely to be achieved, however, by pH, TDS, electrical conductivity, and dissolved gas measurements alone. On the other hand, the production of free hydroxyl radicals (•OH), subsequent reactions such as formation of H2O2 and oxidation of As(III) to As(V) in groundwater, have distinctive precursory characteristics. This study deviates from the prevailing mechanical mantra. It addresses earthquake-related non-seismic mechanisms, but focused on the stress-induced electrification of rocks, the generation of positive hole charge carriers and their long-distance propagation through the rock column, plus on electrochemical processes at the rock-water interface.

  20. Presenteeism and absenteeism: differentiated understanding of related phenomena.

    PubMed

    Gosselin, Eric; Lemyre, Louise; Corneil, Wayne

    2013-01-01

    In the past it was assumed that work attendance equated to performance. It now appears that health-related loss of productivity can be traced equally to workers showing up at work as well as to workers choosing not to. Presenteeism in the workplace, showing up for work while sick, seems now more prevalent than absenteeism. These findings are forcing organizations to reconsider their approaches regarding regular work attendance. Given this, and echoing recommendations in the literature, this study seeks to identify the main behavioral correlates of presenteeism and absenteeism in the workplace. Comparative analysis of the data from a representative sample of executives from the Public Service of Canada enables us to draw a unique picture of presenteeism and absenteeism with regards not only to the impacts of health disorders but also to the demographic, organizational, and individual factors involved. Results provide a better understanding of the similarities and differences between these phenomena, and more specifically, of the differentiated influence of certain variables. These findings provide food for thought and may pave the way to the development of new organizational measures designed to manage absenteeism without creating presenteeism.

  1. Children's emotional experience two years after an earthquake: An exploration of knowledge of earthquakes and associated emotions.

    PubMed

    Raccanello, Daniela; Burro, Roberto; Hall, Rob

    2017-01-01

    We explored whether and how the exposure to a natural disaster such as the 2012 Emilia Romagna earthquake affected the development of children's emotional competence in terms of understanding, regulating, and expressing emotions, after two years, when compared with a control group not exposed to the earthquake. We also examined the role of class level and gender. The sample included two groups of children (n = 127) attending primary school: The experimental group (n = 65) experienced the 2012 Emilia Romagna earthquake, while the control group (n = 62) did not. The data collection took place two years after the earthquake, when children were seven or ten-year-olds. Beyond assessing the children's understanding of emotions and regulating abilities with standardized instruments, we employed semi-structured interviews to explore their knowledge of earthquakes and associated emotions, and a structured task on the intensity of some target emotions. We applied Generalized Linear Mixed Models. Exposure to the earthquake did not influence the understanding and regulation of emotions. The understanding of emotions varied according to class level and gender. Knowledge of earthquakes, emotional language, and emotions associated with earthquakes were, respectively, more complex, frequent, and intense for children who had experienced the earthquake, and at increasing ages. Our data extend the generalizability of theoretical models on children's psychological functioning following disasters, such as the dose-response model and the organizational-developmental model for child resilience, and provide further knowledge on children's emotional resources related to natural disasters, as a basis for planning educational prevention programs.

  2. 75 FR 50749 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-08-17

    ... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting AGENCY: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of open meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction... on NEHRP earthquake related activities and to gather information for the 2011 Annual Report of the...

  3. Aseismic blocks and destructive earthquakes in the Aegean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stiros, Stathis

    2017-04-01

    Aseismic areas are not identified only in vast, geologically stable regions, but also within regions of active, intense, distributed deformation such as the Aegean. In the latter, "aseismic blocks" about 200m wide were recognized in the 1990's on the basis of the absence of instrumentally-derived earthquake foci, in contrast to surrounding areas. This pattern was supported by the available historical seismicity data, as well as by geologic evidence. Interestingly, GPS evidence indicates that such blocks are among the areas characterized by small deformation rates relatively to surrounding areas of higher deformation. Still, the largest and most destructive earthquake of the 1990's, the 1995 M6.6 earthquake occurred at the center of one of these "aseismic" zones at the northern part of Greece, found unprotected against seismic hazard. This case was indeed a repeat of the case of the tsunami-associated 1956 Amorgos Island M7.4 earthquake, the largest 20th century event in the Aegean back-arc region: the 1956 earthquake occurred at the center of a geologically distinct region (Cyclades Massif in Central Aegean), till then assumed aseismic. Interestingly, after 1956, the overall idea of aseismic regions remained valid, though a "promontory" of earthquake prone-areas intruding into the aseismic central Aegean was assumed. Exploitation of the archaeological excavation evidence and careful, combined analysis of historical and archaeological data and other palaeoseismic, mostly coastal data, indicated that destructive and major earthquakes have left their traces in previously assumed aseismic blocks. In the latter earthquakes typically occur with relatively low recurrence intervals, >200-300 years, much smaller than in adjacent active areas. Interestingly, areas assumed a-seismic in antiquity are among the most active in the last centuries, while areas hit by major earthquakes in the past are usually classified as areas of low seismic risk in official maps. Some reasons

  4. Dense Ocean Floor Network for Earthquakes and Tsunamis; DONET/ DONET2, Part2 -Development and data application for the mega thrust earthquakes around the Nankai trough-

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaneda, Y.; Kawaguchi, K.; Araki, E.; Matsumoto, H.; Nakamura, T.; Nakano, M.; Kamiya, S.; Ariyoshi, K.; Baba, T.; Ohori, M.; Hori, T.; Takahashi, N.; Kaneko, S.; Donet Research; Development Group

    2010-12-01

    Yoshiyuki Kaneda Katsuyoshi Kawaguchi*, Eiichiro Araki*, Shou Kaneko*, Hiroyuki Matsumoto*, Takeshi Nakamura*, Masaru Nakano*, Shinichirou Kamiya*, Keisuke Ariyoshi*, Toshitaka Baba*, Michihiro Ohori*, Narumi Takakahashi*, and Takane Hori** * Earthquake and Tsunami Research Project for Disaster Prevention, Leading Project , Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) **Institute for Research on Earth Evolution, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) DONET (Dense Ocean Floor Network for Earthquakes and Tsunamis) is the real time monitoring system of the Tonankai seismogenic zones around the Nankai trough southwestern Japan. We were starting to develop DONET to perform real time monitoring of crustal activities over there and the advanced early warning system. DONET will provide important and useful data to understand the Nankai trough maga thrust earthquake seismogenic zones and to improve the accuracy of the earthquake recurrence cycle simulation. Details of DONET concept are as follows. 1) Redundancy, Extendable function and advanced maintenance system using the looped cable system, junction boxes and the ROV/AUV. DONET has 20 observatories and incorporated in a double land stations concept. Also, we are developed ROV for the 10km cable extensions and heavy weight operations. 2) Multi kinds of sensors to observe broad band phenomena such as long period tremors, very low frequency earthquakes and strong motions of mega thrust earthquakes over M8: Therefore, sensors such as a broadband seismometer, an accelerometer, a hydrophone, a precise pressure gauge, a differential pressure gauge and a thermometer are equipped with each observatory in DONET. 3) For speedy detections, evaluations and notifications of earthquakes and tsunamis: DONET system will be deployed around the Tonankai seismogenic zone. 4) Provide data of ocean floor crustal deformations derived from pressure sensors: Simultaneously, the development of data

  5. Critical behavior in earthquake energy dissipation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wanliss, James; Muñoz, Víctor; Pastén, Denisse; Toledo, Benjamín; Valdivia, Juan Alejandro

    2017-09-01

    We explore bursty multiscale energy dissipation from earthquakes flanked by latitudes 29° S and 35.5° S, and longitudes 69.501° W and 73.944° W (in the Chilean central zone). Our work compares the predictions of a theory of nonequilibrium phase transitions with nonstandard statistical signatures of earthquake complex scaling behaviors. For temporal scales less than 84 hours, time development of earthquake radiated energy activity follows an algebraic arrangement consistent with estimates from the theory of nonequilibrium phase transitions. There are no characteristic scales for probability distributions of sizes and lifetimes of the activity bursts in the scaling region. The power-law exponents describing the probability distributions suggest that the main energy dissipation takes place due to largest bursts of activity, such as major earthquakes, as opposed to smaller activations which contribute less significantly though they have greater relative occurrence. The results obtained provide statistical evidence that earthquake energy dissipation mechanisms are essentially "scale-free", displaying statistical and dynamical self-similarity. Our results provide some evidence that earthquake radiated energy and directed percolation belong to a similar universality class.

  6. Missing great earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, Susan E.

    2013-01-01

    The occurrence of three earthquakes with moment magnitude (Mw) greater than 8.8 and six earthquakes larger than Mw 8.5, since 2004, has raised interest in the long-term global rate of great earthquakes. Past studies have focused on the analysis of earthquakes since 1900, which roughly marks the start of the instrumental era in seismology. Before this time, the catalog is less complete and magnitude estimates are more uncertain. Yet substantial information is available for earthquakes before 1900, and the catalog of historical events is being used increasingly to improve hazard assessment. Here I consider the catalog of historical earthquakes and show that approximately half of all Mw ≥ 8.5 earthquakes are likely missing or underestimated in the 19th century. I further present a reconsideration of the felt effects of the 8 February 1843, Lesser Antilles earthquake, including a first thorough assessment of felt reports from the United States, and show it is an example of a known historical earthquake that was significantly larger than initially estimated. The results suggest that incorporation of best available catalogs of historical earthquakes will likely lead to a significant underestimation of seismic hazard and/or the maximum possible magnitude in many regions, including parts of the Caribbean.

  7. The 1909 Taipei earthquake: implication for seismic hazard in Taipei

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kanamori, Hiroo; Lee, William H.K.; Ma, Kuo-Fong

    2012-01-01

    The 1909 April 14 Taiwan earthquake caused significant damage in Taipei. Most of the information on this earthquake available until now is from the written reports on its macro-seismic effects and from seismic station bulletins. In view of the importance of this event for assessing the shaking hazard in the present-day Taipei, we collected historical seismograms and station bulletins of this event and investigated them in conjunction with other seismological data. We compared the observed seismograms with those from recent earthquakes in similar tectonic environments to characterize the 1909 earthquake. Despite the inevitably large uncertainties associated with old data, we conclude that the 1909 Taipei earthquake is a relatively deep (50–100 km) intraplate earthquake that occurred within the subducting Philippine Sea Plate beneath Taipei with an estimated M_W of 7 ± 0.3. Some intraplate events elsewhere in the world are enriched in high-frequency energy and the resulting ground motions can be very strong. Thus, despite its relatively large depth and a moderately large magnitude, it would be prudent to review the safety of the existing structures in Taipei against large intraplate earthquakes like the 1909 Taipei earthquake.

  8. Investigating Earthquake-induced Landslides­a Historical Review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keefer, D. K.; Geological Survey, Us; Park, Menlo; Usa, Ca

    , extensive to relatively complete inventories landslides have been prepared for a relatively small number of earthquakes. Through the 1960's and 1970's the best landslide inventories typically were complete only for a central affected area, although the first virtually complete inventory of a large earthquake was prepared for the M 7.6 Guatemala earthquake in 1976. Beginning in 1980, virtu- ally complete landslide inventories have prepared for several additional earthquakes in California, El Salvador, Japan, Italy, and Taiwan. Most of these used aerial pho- tography in combination with ground field studies, although the studies of the most recent of these events, in Taiwan, have also used satellite imagery, and three of the others (including the two smallest) were compiled largely from ground-based field 1 studies without aerial photography. Since 1989, digital mapping and GIS techniques have come into common use for mapping earthquake-induced landslides, and the use of these techniques has greatly enhanced the level of analysis that can be applied to earthquake-induced landslide occurrence. The first synthesis of data on earthquake- induced landslides, completed in 1984, defined the general characteristics of these landslides, derived relations between landslide occurrence on the one hand and geo- logic and seismic parameters on the other hand, and identified the types of hazards as- sociated with them. Since then, additional synthesis of worldwide data (1999) and na- tional data from New Zealand (1997), Greece (2000), and Italy (2000) have provided additional data on landslide characteristics and hazards and have extended, revised, and refined these relations. Recently completed studies have also identified areas with anomalous landslide distributions, have provided data for correlating the occurrence of landslides with a measure of local ground motion, have verified the occasional delayed triggering of landslides as a consequence of seismic shaking, and have identi- fied

  9. Triggering of repeating earthquakes in central California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wu, Chunquan; Gomberg, Joan; Ben-Naim, Eli; Johnson, Paul

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic stresses carried by transient seismic waves have been found capable of triggering earthquakes instantly in various tectonic settings. Delayed triggering may be even more common, but the mechanisms are not well understood. Catalogs of repeating earthquakes, earthquakes that recur repeatedly at the same location, provide ideal data sets to test the effects of transient dynamic perturbations on the timing of earthquake occurrence. Here we employ a catalog of 165 families containing ~2500 total repeating earthquakes to test whether dynamic perturbations from local, regional, and teleseismic earthquakes change recurrence intervals. The distance to the earthquake generating the perturbing waves is a proxy for the relative potential contributions of static and dynamic deformations, because static deformations decay more rapidly with distance. Clear changes followed the nearby 2004 Mw6 Parkfield earthquake, so we study only repeaters prior to its origin time. We apply a Monte Carlo approach to compare the observed number of shortened recurrence intervals following dynamic perturbations with the distribution of this number estimated for randomized perturbation times. We examine the comparison for a series of dynamic stress peak amplitude and distance thresholds. The results suggest a weak correlation between dynamic perturbations in excess of ~20 kPa and shortened recurrence intervals, for both nearby and remote perturbations.

  10. Evaluating spatial and temporal relationships between an earthquake cluster near Entiat, central Washington, and the large December 1872 Entiat earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brocher, Thomas M.; Blakely, Richard J.; Sherrod, Brian

    2017-01-01

    We investigate spatial and temporal relations between an ongoing and prolific seismicity cluster in central Washington, near Entiat, and the 14 December 1872 Entiat earthquake, the largest historic crustal earthquake in Washington. A fault scarp produced by the 1872 earthquake lies within the Entiat cluster; the locations and areas of both the cluster and the estimated 1872 rupture surface are comparable. Seismic intensities and the 1–2 m of coseismic displacement suggest a magnitude range between 6.5 and 7.0 for the 1872 earthquake. Aftershock forecast models for (1) the first several hours following the 1872 earthquake, (2) the largest felt earthquakes from 1900 to 1974, and (3) the seismicity within the Entiat cluster from 1976 through 2016 are also consistent with this magnitude range. Based on this aftershock modeling, most of the current seismicity in the Entiat cluster could represent aftershocks of the 1872 earthquake. Other earthquakes, especially those with long recurrence intervals, have long‐lived aftershock sequences, including the Mw">MwMw 7.5 1891 Nobi earthquake in Japan, with aftershocks continuing 100 yrs after the mainshock. Although we do not rule out ongoing tectonic deformation in this region, a long‐lived aftershock sequence can account for these observations.

  11. Surface-Wave Relocation of Remote Continental Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kintner, J. A.; Ammon, C. J.; Cleveland, M.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate hypocenter locations are essential for seismic event analysis. Single-event location estimation methods provide relatively imprecise results in remote regions with few nearby seismic stations. Previous work has demonstrated that improved relative epicentroid precision in oceanic environments is obtainable using surface-wave cross correlation measurements. We use intermediate-period regional and teleseismic Rayleigh and Love waves to estimate relative epicentroid locations of moderately-sized seismic events in regions around Iran. Variations in faulting geometry, depth, and intermediate-period dispersion make surface-wave based event relocation challenging across this broad continental region. We compare and integrate surface-wave based relative locations with InSAR centroid location estimates. However, mapping an earthquake sequence mainshock to an InSAR fault deformation model centroid is not always a simple process, since the InSAR observations are sensitive to post-seismic deformation. We explore these ideas using earthquake sequences in western Iran. We also apply surface-wave relocation to smaller magnitude earthquakes (3.5 < M < 5.0). Inclusion of smaller-magnitude seismic events in a relocation effort requires a shift in bandwidth to shorter periods, which increases the sensitivity of relocations to surface-wave dispersion. Frequency-domain inter-event phase observations are used to understand the time-domain cross-correlation information, and to choose the appropriate band for applications using shorter periods. Over short inter-event distances, the changing group velocity does not strongly degrade the relative locations. For small-magnitude seismic events in continental regions, surface-wave relocation does not appear simple enough to allow broad routine application, but using this method to analyze individual earthquake sequences can provide valuable insight into earthquake and faulting processes.

  12. A prospective earthquake forecast experiment in the western Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eberhard, David A. J.; Zechar, J. Douglas; Wiemer, Stefan

    2012-09-01

    Since the beginning of 2009, the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) has been conducting an earthquake forecast experiment in the western Pacific. This experiment is an extension of the Kagan-Jackson experiments begun 15 years earlier and is a prototype for future global earthquake predictability experiments. At the beginning of each year, seismicity models make a spatially gridded forecast of the number of Mw≥ 5.8 earthquakes expected in the next year. For the three participating statistical models, we analyse the first two years of this experiment. We use likelihood-based metrics to evaluate the consistency of the forecasts with the observed target earthquakes and we apply measures based on Student's t-test and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test to compare the forecasts. Overall, a simple smoothed seismicity model (TripleS) performs the best, but there are some exceptions that indicate continued experiments are vital to fully understand the stability of these models, the robustness of model selection and, more generally, earthquake predictability in this region. We also estimate uncertainties in our results that are caused by uncertainties in earthquake location and seismic moment. Our uncertainty estimates are relatively small and suggest that the evaluation metrics are relatively robust. Finally, we consider the implications of our results for a global earthquake forecast experiment.

  13. Shallow moonquakes - How they compare with earthquakes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nakamura, Y.

    1980-01-01

    Of three types of moonquakes strong enough to be detectable at large distances - deep moonquakes, meteoroid impacts and shallow moonquakes - only shallow moonquakes are similar in nature to earthquakes. A comparison of various characteristics of moonquakes with those of earthquakes indeed shows a remarkable similarity between shallow moonquakes and intraplate earthquakes: (1) their occurrences are not controlled by tides; (2) they appear to occur in locations where there is evidence of structural weaknesses; (3) the relative abundances of small and large quakes (b-values) are similar, suggesting similar mechanisms; and (4) even the levels of activity may be close. The shallow moonquakes may be quite comparable in nature to intraplate earthquakes, and they may be of similar origin.

  14. Children's emotional experience two years after an earthquake: An exploration of knowledge of earthquakes and associated emotions

    PubMed Central

    Burro, Roberto; Hall, Rob

    2017-01-01

    A major earthquake has a potentially highly traumatic impact on children’s psychological functioning. However, while many studies on children describe negative consequences in terms of mental health and psychiatric disorders, little is known regarding how the developmental processes of emotions can be affected following exposure to disasters. Objectives We explored whether and how the exposure to a natural disaster such as the 2012 Emilia Romagna earthquake affected the development of children’s emotional competence in terms of understanding, regulating, and expressing emotions, after two years, when compared with a control group not exposed to the earthquake. We also examined the role of class level and gender. Method The sample included two groups of children (n = 127) attending primary school: The experimental group (n = 65) experienced the 2012 Emilia Romagna earthquake, while the control group (n = 62) did not. The data collection took place two years after the earthquake, when children were seven or ten-year-olds. Beyond assessing the children’s understanding of emotions and regulating abilities with standardized instruments, we employed semi-structured interviews to explore their knowledge of earthquakes and associated emotions, and a structured task on the intensity of some target emotions. Results We applied Generalized Linear Mixed Models. Exposure to the earthquake did not influence the understanding and regulation of emotions. The understanding of emotions varied according to class level and gender. Knowledge of earthquakes, emotional language, and emotions associated with earthquakes were, respectively, more complex, frequent, and intense for children who had experienced the earthquake, and at increasing ages. Conclusions Our data extend the generalizability of theoretical models on children’s psychological functioning following disasters, such as the dose-response model and the organizational-developmental model for child resilience, and

  15. Automatic Earthquake Detection by Active Learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bergen, K.; Beroza, G. C.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years, advances in machine learning have transformed fields such as image recognition, natural language processing and recommender systems. Many of these performance gains have relied on the availability of large, labeled data sets to train high-accuracy models; labeled data sets are those for which each sample includes a target class label, such as waveforms tagged as either earthquakes or noise. Earthquake seismologists are increasingly leveraging machine learning and data mining techniques to detect and analyze weak earthquake signals in large seismic data sets. One of the challenges in applying machine learning to seismic data sets is the limited labeled data problem; learning algorithms need to be given examples of earthquake waveforms, but the number of known events, taken from earthquake catalogs, may be insufficient to build an accurate detector. Furthermore, earthquake catalogs are known to be incomplete, resulting in training data that may be biased towards larger events and contain inaccurate labels. This challenge is compounded by the class imbalance problem; the events of interest, earthquakes, are infrequent relative to noise in continuous data sets, and many learning algorithms perform poorly on rare classes. In this work, we investigate the use of active learning for automatic earthquake detection. Active learning is a type of semi-supervised machine learning that uses a human-in-the-loop approach to strategically supplement a small initial training set. The learning algorithm incorporates domain expertise through interaction between a human expert and the algorithm, with the algorithm actively posing queries to the user to improve detection performance. We demonstrate the potential of active machine learning to improve earthquake detection performance with limited available training data.

  16. Turkish Compulsory Earthquake Insurance and "Istanbul Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Durukal, E.; Sesetyan, K.; Erdik, M.

    2009-04-01

    The city of Istanbul will likely experience substantial direct and indirect losses as a result of a future large (M=7+) earthquake with an annual probability of occurrence of about 2%. This paper dwells on the expected building losses in terms of probable maximum and average annualized losses and discusses the results from the perspective of the compulsory earthquake insurance scheme operational in the country. The TCIP system is essentially designed to operate in Turkey with sufficient penetration to enable the accumulation of funds in the pool. Today, with only 20% national penetration, and about approximately one-half of all policies in highly earthquake prone areas (one-third in Istanbul) the system exhibits signs of adverse selection, inadequate premium structure and insufficient funding. Our findings indicate that the national compulsory earthquake insurance pool in Turkey will face difficulties in covering incurring building losses in Istanbul in the occurrence of a large earthquake. The annualized earthquake losses in Istanbul are between 140-300 million. Even if we assume that the deductible is raised to 15%, the earthquake losses that need to be paid after a large earthquake in Istanbul will be at about 2.5 Billion, somewhat above the current capacity of the TCIP. Thus, a modification to the system for the insured in Istanbul (or Marmara region) is necessary. This may mean an increase in the premia and deductible rates, purchase of larger re-insurance covers and development of a claim processing system. Also, to avoid adverse selection, the penetration rates elsewhere in Turkey need to be increased substantially. A better model would be introduction of parametric insurance for Istanbul. By such a model the losses will not be indemnified, however will be directly calculated on the basis of indexed ground motion levels and damages. The immediate improvement of a parametric insurance model over the existing one will be the elimination of the claim processing

  17. Tilt precursors before earthquakes on the San Andreas fault, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnston, M.J.S.; Mortensen, C.E.

    1974-01-01

    An array of 14 biaxial shallow-borehole tiltmeters (at 10-7 radian sensitivity) has been installed along 85 kilometers of the San Andreas fault during the past year. Earthquake-related changes in tilt have been simultaneously observed on up to four independent instruments. At earthquake distances greater than 10 earthquake source dimensions, there are few clear indications of tilt change. For the four instruments with the longest records (>10 months), 26 earthquakes have occurred since July 1973 with at least one instrument closer than 10 source dimensions and 8 earthquakes with more than one instrument within that distance. Precursors in tilt direction have been observed before more than 10 earthquakes or groups of earthquakes, and no similar effect has yet been seen without the occurrence of an earthquake.

  18. Generalized statistical mechanics approaches to earthquakes and tectonics.

    PubMed

    Vallianatos, Filippos; Papadakis, Giorgos; Michas, Georgios

    2016-12-01

    Despite the extreme complexity that characterizes the mechanism of the earthquake generation process, simple empirical scaling relations apply to the collective properties of earthquakes and faults in a variety of tectonic environments and scales. The physical characterization of those properties and the scaling relations that describe them attract a wide scientific interest and are incorporated in the probabilistic forecasting of seismicity in local, regional and planetary scales. Considerable progress has been made in the analysis of the statistical mechanics of earthquakes, which, based on the principle of entropy, can provide a physical rationale to the macroscopic properties frequently observed. The scale-invariant properties, the (multi) fractal structures and the long-range interactions that have been found to characterize fault and earthquake populations have recently led to the consideration of non-extensive statistical mechanics (NESM) as a consistent statistical mechanics framework for the description of seismicity. The consistency between NESM and observations has been demonstrated in a series of publications on seismicity, faulting, rock physics and other fields of geosciences. The aim of this review is to present in a concise manner the fundamental macroscopic properties of earthquakes and faulting and how these can be derived by using the notions of statistical mechanics and NESM, providing further insights into earthquake physics and fault growth processes.

  19. Earthquake Potential in Myanmar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aung, Hla Hla

    Myanmar region is generally believed to be an area of high earthquake potential from the point of view of seismic activity which has been low compared to the surrounding regions like Indonesia, China, and Pakistan. Geoscientists and seismologists predicted earthquakes to occur in the area north of the Sumatra-Andaman Islands, i.e. the southwest and west part of Myanmar. Myanmar tectonic setting relative to East and SE Asia is rather peculiar and unique with different plate tectonic models but similar to the setting of western part of North America. Myanmar crustal blocks are caught within two lithospheric plates of India and Indochina experiencing oblique subduction with major dextral strike-slip faulting of the Sagaing fault. Seismic tomography and thermal structure of India plate along the Sunda subduction zone vary from south to north. Strong partitioning in central Andaman basin where crustal fragmentation and northward dispersion of Burma plate by back-arc spreading mechanism has been operating since Neogene. Northward motion of Burma plate relative to SE Asia would dock against the major continent further north and might have caused the accumulation of strain which in turn will be released as earthquakes in the future.

  20. Robust Satellite Techniques (RST) for monitoring earthquake prone areas by satellite TIR observations: The case of 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake (Taiwan)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Genzano, N.; Filizzola, C.; Paciello, R.; Pergola, N.; Tramutoli, V.

    2015-12-01

    different years (from 1995 to 2002). In this dataset the Chi-Chi earthquake (MW = 7.6) which occurred on September 20, 1999 represents the major, but not unique, event. The analysis shows that all identified SSTAs occur in the pre-fixed space-time window around (in terms of time and location) earthquakes with M > 4. The false positive rate remains zero even if only earthquakes with M > 4.5 are considered. In the case of the Chi-Chi earthquake, 3 SSTAs were identified (all within the established space-time correlation window), one of them appearing about 2 weeks before and very close to the epicentre of the earthquake just along the associated tectonic lineaments. The wide considered space-time window, together with the high seismicity of the considered area, surely positively conditioned the achieved results, so that further analyses should be carried out by using longer datasets and different geographic areas. However, also considering the coincidence with other (possible) precursor phenomena, independently reported (particularly within the iSTEP project) at the time of the Chi Chi earthquake, achieved results seem already sufficient (at least) to qualify TIR anomalies (identified by RST) among the parameters to be considered in the framework of a multi-parametric approach to a time-Dependent Assessment of Seismic Hazard (t-DASH).

  1. Journal of Transportation and Statistics : special issue on the Northridge earthquake

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1998-09-01

    This is special issue on the Northridge Earthquake. Contents: Impacts of the Northridge Earthquake on Transit and Highway Use by Genevieve Giuliano; Transport Related Impacts on the Northridge Earthquake by Peter Gordon; Goods Movement After the Nort...

  2. Redefining Earthquakes and the Earthquake Machine

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hubenthal, Michael; Braile, Larry; Taber, John

    2008-01-01

    The Earthquake Machine (EML), a mechanical model of stick-slip fault systems, can increase student engagement and facilitate opportunities to participate in the scientific process. This article introduces the EML model and an activity that challenges ninth-grade students' misconceptions about earthquakes. The activity emphasizes the role of models…

  3. A smartphone application for earthquakes that matter!

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bossu, Rémy; Etivant, Caroline; Roussel, Fréderic; Mazet-Roux, Gilles; Steed, Robert

    2014-05-01

    Smartphone applications have swiftly become one of the most popular tools for rapid reception of earthquake information for the public, some of them having been downloaded more than 1 million times! The advantages are obvious: wherever someone's own location is, they can be automatically informed when an earthquake has struck. Just by setting a magnitude threshold and an area of interest, there is no longer the need to browse the internet as the information reaches you automatically and instantaneously! One question remains: are the provided earthquake notifications always relevant for the public? What are the earthquakes that really matters to laypeople? One clue may be derived from some newspaper reports that show that a while after damaging earthquakes many eyewitnesses scrap the application they installed just after the mainshock. Why? Because either the magnitude threshold is set too high and many felt earthquakes are missed, or it is set too low and the majority of the notifications are related to unfelt earthquakes thereby only increasing anxiety among the population at each new update. Felt and damaging earthquakes are the ones that matter the most for the public (and authorities). They are the ones of societal importance even when of small magnitude. A smartphone application developed by EMSC (Euro-Med Seismological Centre) with the financial support of the Fondation MAIF aims at providing suitable notifications for earthquakes by collating different information threads covering tsunamigenic, potentially damaging and felt earthquakes. Tsunamigenic earthquakes are considered here to be those ones that are the subject of alert or information messages from the PTWC (Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre). While potentially damaging earthquakes are identified through an automated system called EQIA (Earthquake Qualitative Impact Assessment) developed and operated at EMSC. This rapidly assesses earthquake impact by comparing the population exposed to each expected

  4. Dynamic Earthquake Triggering on Seismogenic Faults in Oklahoma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qin, Y.; Chen, X.; Peng, Z.; Aiken, C.

    2016-12-01

    Regions with high pore pressure are generally more susceptible to dynamic triggering from transient stress change caused by surface wave of distant earthquakes. The stress threshold from triggering studies can help understand the stress state of seismogenic faults. The recent dramatic seismicity increase in central US provides a rich database for assessing dynamic triggering phenomena. We begin our study by conducting a systematic analysis of dynamic triggering for the continental U.S using ANSS catalog (with magnitude of completeness Mc=3) from 49 global mainshocks (Ms>6.5, depth<100km, estimated dynamic stress>1kPa). We calculate β value for each 1° by 1° bins in 30 days before and 10 days after the mainshock. To identify regions that experience triggering from a distant mainshock, we generate a stacked map using β≥2 - which represents significant seismicity rate increase. As expected, the geothermal and volcanic fields in California show clear response to distant earthquakes. We also note areas in Oklahoma and north Texas show enhanced triggering, where wastewater-injection induced seismicity are occurring. Next we focus on Oklahoma and use a local catalog from Oklahoma Geological Survey with lower completeness threshold Mc to calculate the beta map in 0.2° by 0.2° bins for each selected mainshock to obtain finer spatial resolutions of the triggering behavior. For those grids with β larger than 2.0, we use waveforms from nearby stations to search for triggered events. The April 2015 M7.8 Nepal earthquake causes a statistically significant increase of local seismicity (β=3.5) in the Woodward area (west Oklahoma) during an on-going earthquake sequence. By visually examining the surface wave from the nearest station, we identify 3 larger local events, and 10 additional smaller events with weaker but discernable amplitude. Preliminary analysis shows that the triggering is related to Rayleigh wave, which would cause dilatational or shear stress changes

  5. Inter-occurrence times and universal laws in finance, earthquakes and genomes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsallis, Constantino

    2016-07-01

    A plethora of natural, artificial and social systems exist which do not belong to the Boltzmann-Gibbs (BG) statistical-mechanical world, based on the standard additive entropy $S_{BG}$ and its associated exponential BG factor. Frequent behaviors in such complex systems have been shown to be closely related to $q$-statistics instead, based on the nonadditive entropy $S_q$ (with $S_1=S_{BG}$), and its associated $q$-exponential factor which generalizes the usual BG one. In fact, a wide range of phenomena of quite different nature exist which can be described and, in the simplest cases, understood through analytic (and explicit) functions and probability distributions which exhibit some universal features. Universality classes are concomitantly observed which can be characterized through indices such as $q$. We will exhibit here some such cases, namely concerning the distribution of inter-occurrence (or inter-event) times in the areas of finance, earthquakes and genomes.

  6. Correlation between pore fluid pressures and DInSAR post-seismic deformation of the May 20, 2012 Emilia-Romagna (Italy) earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moro, M.; Stramondo, S.; Albano, M.; Barba, S.; Solaro, G.; Saroli, M.; Bignami, C.

    2015-12-01

    The present work focuses on the detection and analysis of the postseismic surface deformations following the two earthquakes that hit the Emilia Romagna region (Italy) on May 20 and 29, 2012. The 2012 Emilia earthquake sequence struck the central sector of the Ferrara arc, which represents the external fold-and-thrust system of the Northern Apennines thrust belt buried below the Po plain. The May 20 event occurred on the Ferrara basal thrust at depth, at about 6-7 km, while, during the May 29 event, the rupture jumped on an inner splay of the Ferrara system. The analysis of the postseismic displacements was carried out thanks to a dataset of SAR COSMO­ SkyMed images covering a time span of about one year (May 20, 2012 - May 11, 2013) after the May 20 event. The DInSAR results revealed the presence of two deformation patches: the first one is located in the area that experienced the coseismic uplift. Here the postseismic displacements point out a further ground uplift occurring along the first three months after the 20 May event. The second deformation patch is located in the villages of San Carlo and Mirabello, where ground subsidence lasting about four months was detected. We hypothesized that both the observed phenomena are related to the pore pressure perturbation caused by the coseismic deformation. In particular, the ground uplift is due to the deep crustal deformations caused by the pore fluid diffusion at depth to re-establish the initial hydrostatic stresses. Instead, the ground subsidence is related to the compaction of the shallow sandy layers caused by the liquefaction phenomena, which widely affected the San Carlo and Mirabello area. Preliminary numerical analyses performed with the Finite Element Method and empirical relations confirmed our hypothesis.

  7. Prospects for earthquake prediction and control

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Healy, J.H.; Lee, W.H.K.; Pakiser, L.C.; Raleigh, C.B.; Wood, M.D.

    1972-01-01

    The San Andreas fault is viewed, according to the concepts of seafloor spreading and plate tectonics, as a transform fault that separates the Pacific and North American plates and along which relative movements of 2 to 6 cm/year have been taking place. The resulting strain can be released by creep, by earthquakes of moderate size, or (as near San Francisco and Los Angeles) by great earthquakes. Microearthquakes, as mapped by a dense seismograph network in central California, generally coincide with zones of the San Andreas fault system that are creeping. Microearthquakes are few and scattered in zones where elastic energy is being stored. Changes in the rate of strain, as recorded by tiltmeter arrays, have been observed before several earthquakes of about magnitude 4. Changes in fluid pressure may control timing of seismic activity and make it possible to control natural earthquakes by controlling variations in fluid pressure in fault zones. An experiment in earthquake control is underway at the Rangely oil field in Colorado, where the rates of fluid injection and withdrawal in experimental wells are being controlled. ?? 1972.

  8. Oklahoma’s recent earthquakes and saltwater disposal

    PubMed Central

    Walsh, F. Rall; Zoback, Mark D.

    2015-01-01

    Over the past 5 years, parts of Oklahoma have experienced marked increases in the number of small- to moderate-sized earthquakes. In three study areas that encompass the vast majority of the recent seismicity, we show that the increases in seismicity follow 5- to 10-fold increases in the rates of saltwater disposal. Adjacent areas where there has been relatively little saltwater disposal have had comparatively few recent earthquakes. In the areas of seismic activity, the saltwater disposal principally comes from “produced” water, saline pore water that is coproduced with oil and then injected into deeper sedimentary formations. These formations appear to be in hydraulic communication with potentially active faults in crystalline basement, where nearly all the earthquakes are occurring. Although most of the recent earthquakes have posed little danger to the public, the possibility of triggering damaging earthquakes on potentially active basement faults cannot be discounted. PMID:26601200

  9. Long-range dependence in earthquake-moment release and implications for earthquake occurrence probability.

    PubMed

    Barani, Simone; Mascandola, Claudia; Riccomagno, Eva; Spallarossa, Daniele; Albarello, Dario; Ferretti, Gabriele; Scafidi, Davide; Augliera, Paolo; Massa, Marco

    2018-03-28

    Since the beginning of the 1980s, when Mandelbrot observed that earthquakes occur on 'fractal' self-similar sets, many studies have investigated the dynamical mechanisms that lead to self-similarities in the earthquake process. Interpreting seismicity as a self-similar process is undoubtedly convenient to bypass the physical complexities related to the actual process. Self-similar processes are indeed invariant under suitable scaling of space and time. In this study, we show that long-range dependence is an inherent feature of the seismic process, and is universal. Examination of series of cumulative seismic moment both in Italy and worldwide through Hurst's rescaled range analysis shows that seismicity is a memory process with a Hurst exponent H ≈ 0.87. We observe that H is substantially space- and time-invariant, except in cases of catalog incompleteness. This has implications for earthquake forecasting. Hence, we have developed a probability model for earthquake occurrence that allows for long-range dependence in the seismic process. Unlike the Poisson model, dependent events are allowed. This model can be easily transferred to other disciplines that deal with self-similar processes.

  10. Source properties of earthquakes near the Salton Sea triggered by the 16 October 1999 M 7.1 Hector Mine, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, S.E.; Kanamori, H.

    2002-01-01

    We analyze the source properties of a sequence of triggered earthquakes that occurred near the Salton Sea in southern California in the immediate aftermath of the M 7.1 Hector Mine earthquake of 16 October 1999. The sequence produced a number of early events that were not initially located by the regional network, including two moderate earthquakes: the first within 30 sec of the P-wave arrival and a second approximately 10 minutes after the mainshock. We use available amplitude and waveform data from these events to estimate magnitudes to be approximately 4.7 and 4.4, respectively, and to obtain crude estimates of their locations. The sequence of small events following the initial M 4.7 earthquake is clustered and suggestive of a local aftershock sequence. Using both broadband TriNet data and analog data from the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN), we also investigate the spectral characteristics of the M 4.4 event and other triggered earthquakes using empirical Green's function (EGF) analysis. We find that the source spectra of the events are consistent with expectations for tectonic (brittle shear failure) earthquakes, and infer stress drop values of 0.1 to 6 MPa for six M 2.1 to M 4.4 events. The estimated stress drop values are within the range observed for tectonic earthquakes elsewhere. They are relatively low compared to typically observed stress drop values, which is consistent with expectations for faulting in an extensional, high heat flow regime. The results therefore suggest that, at least in this case, triggered earthquakes are associated with a brittle shear failure mechanism. This further suggests that triggered earthquakes may tend to occur in geothermal-volcanic regions because shear failure occurs at, and can be triggered by, relatively low stresses in extensional regimes.

  11. Absence of remote earthquake triggering within the Coso and Salton Sea geothermal production fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Qiong; Lin, Guoqing; Zhan, Zhongwen; Chen, Xiaowei; Qin, Yan; Wdowinski, Shimon

    2017-01-01

    Geothermal areas are long recognized to be susceptible to remote earthquake triggering, probably due to the high seismicity rates and presence of geothermal fluids. However, anthropogenic injection and extraction activity may alter the stress state and fluid flow within the geothermal fields. Here we examine the remote triggering phenomena in the Coso geothermal field and its surrounding areas to assess possible anthropogenic effects. We find that triggered earthquakes are absent within the geothermal field but occur in the surrounding areas. Similar observation is also found in the Salton Sea geothermal field. We hypothesize that continuous geothermal operation has eliminated any significant differential pore pressure between fractures inside the geothermal field through flushing geothermal precipitations and sediments out of clogged fractures. To test this hypothesis, we analyze the pore-pressure-driven earthquake swarms, and they are found to occur outside or on the periphery of the geothermal production field. Therefore, our results suggest that the geothermal operation has changed the subsurface fracture network, and differential pore pressure is the primary controlling factor of remote triggering in geothermal fields.

  12. Revisiting the 1872 Owens Valley, California, Earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, S.E.; Hutton, K.

    2008-01-01

    The 26 March 1872 Owens Valley earthquake is among the largest historical earthquakes in California. The felt area and maximum fault displacements have long been regarded as comparable to, if not greater than, those of the great San Andreas fault earthquakes of 1857 and 1906, but mapped surface ruptures of the latter two events were 2-3 times longer than that inferred for the 1872 rupture. The preferred magnitude estimate of the Owens Valley earthquake has thus been 7.4, based largely on the geological evidence. Reinterpreting macroseismic accounts of the Owens Valley earthquake, we infer generally lower intensity values than those estimated in earlier studies. Nonetheless, as recognized in the early twentieth century, the effects of this earthquake were still generally more dramatic at regional distances than the macroseismic effects from the 1906 earthquake, with light damage to masonry buildings at (nearest-fault) distances as large as 400 km. Macroseismic observations thus suggest a magnitude greater than that of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, which appears to be at odds with geological observations. However, while the mapped rupture length of the Owens Valley earthquake is relatively low, the average slip was high. The surface rupture was also complex and extended over multiple fault segments. It was first mapped in detail over a century after the earthquake occurred, and recent evidence suggests it might have been longer than earlier studies indicated. Our preferred magnitude estimate is Mw 7.8-7.9, values that we show are consistent with the geological observations. The results of our study suggest that either the Owens Valley earthquake was larger than the 1906 San Francisco earthquake or that, by virtue of source properties and/or propagation effects, it produced systematically higher ground motions at regional distances. The latter possibility implies that some large earthquakes in California will generate significantly larger ground motions than San

  13. Large earthquake rates from geologic, geodetic, and seismological perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jackson, D. D.

    2017-12-01

    Earthquake rate and recurrence information comes primarily from geology, geodesy, and seismology. Geology gives the longest temporal perspective, but it reveals only surface deformation, relatable to earthquakes only with many assumptions. Geodesy is also limited to surface observations, but it detects evidence of the processes leading to earthquakes, again subject to important assumptions. Seismology reveals actual earthquakes, but its history is too short to capture important properties of very large ones. Unfortunately, the ranges of these observation types barely overlap, so that integrating them into a consistent picture adequate to infer future prospects requires a great deal of trust. Perhaps the most important boundary is the temporal one at the beginning of the instrumental seismic era, about a century ago. We have virtually no seismological or geodetic information on large earthquakes before then, and little geological information after. Virtually all-modern forecasts of large earthquakes assume some form of equivalence between tectonic- and seismic moment rates as functions of location, time, and magnitude threshold. That assumption links geology, geodesy, and seismology, but it invokes a host of other assumptions and incurs very significant uncertainties. Questions include temporal behavior of seismic and tectonic moment rates; shape of the earthquake magnitude distribution; upper magnitude limit; scaling between rupture length, width, and displacement; depth dependence of stress coupling; value of crustal rigidity; and relation between faults at depth and their surface fault traces, to name just a few. In this report I'll estimate the quantitative implications for estimating large earthquake rate. Global studies like the GEAR1 project suggest that surface deformation from geology and geodesy best show the geography of very large, rare earthquakes in the long term, while seismological observations of small earthquakes best forecasts moderate earthquakes

  14. POST Earthquake Debris Management - AN Overview

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarkar, Raju

    Every year natural disasters, such as fires, floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, landslides, tsunami, and tornadoes, challenge various communities of the world. Earthquakes strike with varying degrees of severity and pose both short- and long-term challenges to public service providers. Earthquakes generate shock waves and displace the ground along fault lines. These seismic forces can bring down buildings and bridges in a localized area and damage buildings and other structures in a far wider area. Secondary damage from fires, explosions, and localized flooding from broken water pipes can increase the amount of debris. Earthquake debris includes building materials, personal property, and sediment from landslides. The management of this debris, as well as the waste generated during the reconstruction works, can place significant challenges on the national and local capacities. Debris removal is a major component of every post earthquake recovery operation. Much of the debris generated from earthquake is not hazardous. Soil, building material, and green waste, such as trees and shrubs, make up most of the volume of earthquake debris. These wastes not only create significant health problems and a very unpleasant living environment if not disposed of safely and appropriately, but also can subsequently impose economical burdens on the reconstruction phase. In practice, most of the debris may be either disposed of at landfill sites, reused as materials for construction or recycled into useful commodities Therefore, the debris clearance operation should focus on the geotechnical engineering approach as an important post earthquake issue to control the quality of the incoming flow of potential soil materials. In this paper, the importance of an emergency management perspective in this geotechnical approach that takes into account the different criteria related to the operation execution is proposed by highlighting the key issues concerning the handling of the construction

  15. Areas of slip of recent earthquakes in the Mexican subduction zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hjorleifsdottir, V.; Sánchez-Reyes, H. S.; Singh, S.; Ji, C.; Iglesias, A.; Perez-Campos, X.

    2012-12-01

    The Mexican subduction zone is unusual: the width of the seismogenic zone is relatively narrow and a large portion of the co-seismic slip generally occurs below the coast, ~ 45 to 80 km from the trench. The earthquake recurrence interval is relatively short and almost the entire length of the zone has experienced a large (Mw≥7.4) earthquake in the last 100 years (Singh et al., 1981). In this study we present detailed analysis of the areas of significant slip during several recent (last 20 years) large earthquakes in the Mexican subduction zone. The most recent earthquake of 20 March 2012 (Mw7.4) occurred near the Guerrero/Oaxaca border. The slip was concentrated on the plate interface below land and the epicentral PGAs ranged between 0.2 and 0.7g. The updip portion of the plate interface had previously broken during the 25 Feb 1996 earthquake (Mw7.1), which was a slow earthquake and produced anomalously low PGAs (Iglesias et al., 2003). This indicates that in this region the area close to the trench is at least partially locked, with some earthquakes breaking the down-dip portion of the interface and others rupturing the up-dip portion. The Jalisco/Colima segment of the subduction zone seems to behave in a similar fashion. The 9 October 1995 (Mw 8.0) earthquake generated small accelerations relative to its size. The energy to moment ratio, E0/M0, is 4.2e-6 (Pérez-Campos, Singh and Beroza, 2003), a value similar to the Feb, 1996 earthquake. This value is low compared to other thrust events in the region. The earthquake also had the largest (Ms-Mw) disparity along the Mexican subduction zone, 7.4 vs 8.0. The event produced relatively large tsunami. On the contrary, the 3 June 1932 earthquake (Ms8.2, Mw8.0), that is believed to have broken the same segment of the subduction zone, appears to be "normal." Based on the available evidence, it may be concluded that the 1932 event broke a deeper patch of the plate interface relative to the 1995 event. The mode of rupture

  16. Earthquake prediction in Japan and natural time analysis of seismicity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uyeda, S.; Varotsos, P.

    2011-12-01

    M9 super-giant earthquake with huge tsunami devastated East Japan on 11 March, causing more than 20,000 casualties and serious damage of Fukushima nuclear plant. This earthquake was predicted neither short-term nor long-term. Seismologists were shocked because it was not even considered possible to happen at the East Japan subduction zone. However, it was not the only un-predicted earthquake. In fact, throughout several decades of the National Earthquake Prediction Project, not even a single earthquake was predicted. In reality, practically no effective research has been conducted for the most important short-term prediction. This happened because the Japanese National Project was devoted for construction of elaborate seismic networks, which was not the best way for short-term prediction. After the Kobe disaster, in order to parry the mounting criticism on their no success history, they defiantly changed their policy to "stop aiming at short-term prediction because it is impossible and concentrate resources on fundamental research", that meant to obtain "more funding for no prediction research". The public were and are not informed about this change. Obviously earthquake prediction would be possible only when reliable precursory phenomena are caught and we have insisted this would be done most likely through non-seismic means such as geochemical/hydrological and electromagnetic monitoring. Admittedly, the lack of convincing precursors for the M9 super-giant earthquake has adverse effect for us, although its epicenter was far out off shore of the range of operating monitoring systems. In this presentation, we show a new possibility of finding remarkable precursory signals, ironically, from ordinary seismological catalogs. In the frame of the new time domain termed natural time, an order parameter of seismicity, κ1, has been introduced. This is the variance of natural time kai weighted by normalised energy release at χ. In the case that Seismic Electric Signals

  17. Seismicity in the source areas of the 1896 and 1933 Sanriku earthquakes and implications for large near-trench earthquake faults

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Obana, Koichiro; Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Fujie, Gou; Kodaira, Shuichi; Kaiho, Yuka; Yamamoto, Yojiro; Miura, Seiichi

    2018-03-01

    characterized by an aseismic region landward of the trench axis. Spatial heterogeneity of seismicity and crustal structure might indicate the near-trench faults that could lead to future hazardous events such as the 1896 and 1933 Sanriku earthquakes, and should be taken into account in assessment of tsunami hazards related to large near-trench earthquakes.

  18. The continuous automatic monitoring network installed in Tuscany (Italy) since late 2002, to study earthquake precursory phenomena

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pierotti, Lisa; Cioni, Roberto

    2010-05-01

    Since late 2002, a continuous automatic monitoring network (CAMN) was designed, built and installed in Tuscany (Italy), in order to investigate and define the geochemical response of the aquifers to the local seismic activity. The purpose of the investigation was to identify eventual earthquake precursors. The CAMN is constituted by two groups of five measurement stations each. A first group has been installed in the Serchio and Magra graben (Garfagnana and Lunigiana Valleys, Northern Tuscany), while the second one, in the area of Mt. Amiata (Southern Tuscany), an extinct volcano. Garfagnana, Lunigiana and Mt. Amiata regions belong to the inner zone of the Northern Apennine fold-and-thrust belt. This zone has been involved in the post-collision extensional tectonics since the Upper Miocene-Pliocene. Such tectonic activity has produced horst and graben structures oriented from N-S to NW-SE that are transferred by NE-SW system. Both Garfagnana (Serchio graben) and Lunigiana (Magra graben) belong to the most inner sector of the belt where the seismic sources, responsible for the strongest earthquakes of the northern Apennine, are located (e.g. the M=6.5 earthquake of September 1920). The extensional processes in southern Tuscany have been accompanied by magmatic activity since the Upper Miocene, developing effusive and intrusive products traditionally attributed to the so-called Tuscan Magmatic Province. Mt. Amiata, whose magmatic activity ceased about 0.3 M.y. ago, belongs to the extensive Tyrrhenian sector that is characterized by high heat flow and crustal thinning. The whole zone is characterized by wide-spread but moderate seismicity (the maximum recorded magnitude has been 5.1 with epicentre in Piancastagnaio, 1919). The extensional regime in both the Garfagnana-Lunigiana and Mt. Amiata area is confirmed by the focal mechanisms of recent earthquakes. An essential phase of the monitoring activities has been the selection of suitable sites for the installation of

  19. Twitter earthquake detection: Earthquake monitoring in a social world

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Earle, Paul S.; Bowden, Daniel C.; Guy, Michelle R.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets) with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word "earthquake" clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.

  20. Possible cause for an improbable earthquake: The 1997 MW 4.9 southern Alabama earthquake and hydrocarbon recovery

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gomberg, J.; Wolf, L.

    1999-01-01

    Circumstantial and physical evidence indicates that the 1997 MW 4.9 earthquake in southern Alabama may have been related to hydrocarbon recovery. Epicenters of this earthquake and its aftershocks were located within a few kilometers of active oil and gas extraction wells and two pressurized injection wells. Main shock and aftershock focal depths (2-6 km) are within a few kilometers of the injection and withdrawal depths. Strain accumulation at geologic rates sufficient to cause rupture at these shallow focal depths is not likely. A paucity of prior seismicity is difficult to reconcile with the occurrence of an earthquake of MW 4.9 and a magnitude-frequency relationship usually assumed for natural earthquakes. The normal-fault main-shock mechanism is consistent with reactivation of preexisting faults in the regional tectonic stress field. If the earthquake were purely tectonic, however, the question arises as to why it occurred on only the small fraction of a large, regional fault system coinciding with active hydrocarbon recovery. No obvious temporal correlation is apparent between the earthquakes and recovery activities. Although thus far little can be said quantitatively about the physical processes that may have caused the 1997 sequence, a plausible explanation involves the poroelastic response of the crust to extraction of hydrocarbons.

  1. Chance findings about early holocene tidal marshes of Grays Harbor, Washington, in relation to rapidly rising seas and great subduction earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Phipps, James B.; Hemphill-Haley, Eileen; Atwater, Brian F.

    2015-06-18

    The puzzles posed by these findings include: (1) How did the marshes manage to endure centuries of relative sea-level rise that likely approached 1 cm/yr on average? (2) Did the marshes also endure subsidence that accompanied great thrust earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone? (3) Was their eventual drowning triggered by a Cascadia earthquake of unusually large size, or can the drowning be explained by sea-level rise that included a jump from drainage of glacial Lake Agassiz?

  2. Crustal earthquake triggering by pre-historic great earthquakes on subduction zone thrusts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sherrod, Brian; Gomberg, Joan

    2014-01-01

    Triggering of earthquakes on upper plate faults during and shortly after recent great (M>8.0) subduction thrust earthquakes raises concerns about earthquake triggering following Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes. Of particular regard to Cascadia was the previously noted, but only qualitatively identified, clustering of M>~6.5 crustal earthquakes in the Puget Sound region between about 1200–900 cal yr B.P. and the possibility that this was triggered by a great Cascadia thrust subduction thrust earthquake, and therefore portends future such clusters. We confirm quantitatively the extraordinary nature of the Puget Sound region crustal earthquake clustering between 1200–900 cal yr B.P., at least over the last 16,000. We conclude that this cluster was not triggered by the penultimate, and possibly full-margin, great Cascadia subduction thrust earthquake. However, we also show that the paleoseismic record for Cascadia is consistent with conclusions of our companion study of the global modern record outside Cascadia, that M>8.6 subduction thrust events have a high probability of triggering at least one or more M>~6.5 crustal earthquakes.

  3. 75 FR 63854 - National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) Advisory Committee

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-10-18

    ... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Geological Survey National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council...: Pursuant to Public Law 96-472, the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) will hold a 2... proposed earthquake predictions, on the completeness and scientific validity of the available data related...

  4. An empirical model for global earthquake fatality estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David

    2010-01-01

    We analyzed mortality rates of earthquakes worldwide and developed a country/region-specific empirical model for earthquake fatality estimation within the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. The earthquake fatality rate is defined as total killed divided by total population exposed at specific shaking intensity level. The total fatalities for a given earthquake are estimated by multiplying the number of people exposed at each shaking intensity level by the fatality rates for that level and then summing them at all relevant shaking intensities. The fatality rate is expressed in terms of a two-parameter lognormal cumulative distribution function of shaking intensity. The parameters are obtained for each country or a region by minimizing the residual error in hindcasting the total shaking-related deaths from earthquakes recorded between 1973 and 2007. A new global regionalization scheme is used to combine the fatality data across different countries with similar vulnerability traits.

  5. Multi-instrument observations of pre-earthquake transient signatures associated with 2015 M8.3 Chile earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouzounov, D.; Pulinets, S. A.; Hernandez-Pajares, M.; Garcia-Rigo, A.; De Santis, A.; Pavón, J.; Liu, J. Y. G.; Chen, C. H.; Cheng, K. C.; Hattori, K.; Stepanova, M. V.; Romanova, N.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kafatos, M.

    2016-12-01

    We are conducting multi parameter validation study on lithosphere/atmosphere /ionosphere transient phenomena preceding major earthquakes particularly for the case of M8.3 of Sept 16th, 2015 in Chile. Our approach is based on monitoring simultaneously a series of different physical parameters from space: 1/Outgoing long-wavelength radiation (OLR obtained from NOAA/AVHRR); 2/ electron and electron density variations in the ionosphere via GPS Total Electron Content (GPS/TEC), and 3/geomagnetic field and plasma density variation (Swarm); and from ground: 3/ GPS crustal deformation and 4/ground-based magnetometers. The time and location of main shock was prospectively alerted in advance using the Multi Sensor Networking Approach (MSNA-LAIC) approach. We analyzed retrospectively several physical observations characterizing the state of the lithosphere, atmosphere and ionosphere several days before, during and after the M8.3 earthquakes in Illapel. Our continuous satellite monitoring of long-wave (LW) data over Chile, shows a rapid increase of emitted radiation during the end of August 2015 and an anomaly in the atmosphere was detected at 19 LT on Sept 1st, 2015, over the water near to the epicenter. On Sept 2nd Swarm magnetic measurements show an anomalous signature over the epicentral region. GPS/TEC analysis revealed an anomaly on Sept 14th and on the same day the degradation of Equatorial Ionospheric Anomaly (EIA) and disappearance of the crests of EIA as is characteristic for pre-dawn and early morning hours (11 LT) was observed. On Sept 16th co-seismic ionospheric signatures consistent with defined circular acoustic-gravity wave and different shock-acoustic waves were also observed. GPS TEC and deformation studies were computed from 48 GPS stations (2013-2015) of National Seismological Center of Chile (CSN) GPS network. A transient signal of deformation has been observed a week in advance correlated with ground-based magnetometers ULF signal fluctuation from closest

  6. Multi-Parameter Observation and Detection of Pre-Earthquake Signals in Seismically Active Areas

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ouzounov, D.; Pulinets, S.; Parrot, M.; Liu, J. Y.; Hattori, K.; Kafatos, M.; Taylor, P.

    2012-01-01

    The recent large earthquakes (M9.0 Tohoku, 03/2011; M7.0 Haiti, 01/2010; M6.7 L Aquila, 04/2008; and M7.9 Wenchuan 05/2008) have renewed interest in pre-anomalous seismic signals associated with them. Recent workshops (DEMETER 2006, 2011 and VESTO 2009 ) have shown that there were precursory atmospheric /ionospheric signals observed in space prior to these events. Our initial results indicate that no single pre-earthquake observation (seismic, magnetic field, electric field, thermal infrared [TIR], or GPS/TEC) can provide a consistent and successful global scale early warning. This is most likely due to complexity and chaotic nature of earthquakes and the limitation in existing ground (temporal/spatial) and global satellite observations. In this study we analyze preseismic temporal and spatial variations (gas/radon counting rate, atmospheric temperature and humidity change, long-wave radiation transitions and ionospheric electron density/plasma variations) which we propose occur before the onset of major earthquakes:. We propose an Integrated Space -- Terrestrial Framework (ISTF), as a different approach for revealing pre-earthquake phenomena in seismically active areas. ISTF is a sensor web of a coordinated observation infrastructure employing multiple sensors that are distributed on one or more platforms; data from satellite sensors (Terra, Aqua, POES, DEMETER and others) and ground observations, e.g., Global Positioning System, Total Electron Content (GPS/TEC). As a theoretical guide we use the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model to explain the generation of multiple earthquake precursors. Using our methodology, we evaluated retrospectively the signals preceding the most devastated earthquakes during 2005-2011. We observed a correlation between both atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies preceding most of these earthquakes. The second phase of our validation include systematic retrospective analysis for more than 100 major earthquakes (M>5

  7. The California Post-Earthquake Information Clearinghouse: A Plan to Learn From the Next Large California Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loyd, R.; Walter, S.; Fenton, J.; Tubbesing, S.; Greene, M.

    2008-12-01

    In the rush to remove debris after a damaging earthquake, perishable data related to a wide range of impacts on the physical, built and social environments can be lost. The California Post-Earthquake Information Clearinghouse is intended to prevent this data loss by supporting the earth scientists, engineers, and social and policy researchers who will conduct fieldwork in the affected areas in the hours and days following the earthquake to study these effects. First called for by Governor Ronald Reagan following the destructive M6.5 San Fernando earthquake in 1971, the concept of the Clearinghouse has since been incorporated into the response plans of the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (USGS Circular 1242). This presentation is intended to acquaint scientists with the purpose, functions, and services of the Clearinghouse. Typically, the Clearinghouse is set up in the vicinity of the earthquake within 24 hours of the mainshock and is maintained for several days to several weeks. It provides a location where field researchers can assemble to share and discuss their observations, plan and coordinate subsequent field work, and communicate significant findings directly to the emergency responders and to the public through press conferences. As the immediate response effort winds down, the Clearinghouse will ensure that collected data are archived and made available through "lessons learned" reports and publications that follow significant earthquakes. Participants in the quarterly meetings of the Clearinghouse include representatives from state and federal agencies, universities, NGOs and other private groups. Overall management of the Clearinghouse is delegated to the agencies represented by the authors above.

  8. Pre-seismic anomalous geomagnetic signature related to M8.3 earthquake occurred in Chile on September 16-th, 2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armand Stanica, Dragos, ,, Dr.; Stanica, Dumitru, ,, Dr.; Vladimirescu, Nicoleta

    2016-04-01

    In this paper, we retrospectively analyzed the geomagnetic data collected, via internet (www.intermagnet.com), on the interval 01 July-30 September 2015 at the observatories Easter Island (IMP) and Pilar (PIL), placed in Chile and Argentina, respectively, to emphasize a possible relationship between the pre-seismic anomalous behavior of the normalized function Bzn and M8.3 earthquake, that occurred in Offshore Coquimbo (Chile) on September 16-th, 2015. The daily mean distributions of the normalized function Bzn=Bz/Bperp (where Bz is vertical component of the geomagnetic field; Bperp is geomagnetic component perpendicular to the geoelectrical strike) and its standard deviation (STDEV) are performed in the ULF frequency range 0.001Hz to 0.0083Hz by using the FFT band-pass filter analysis. It was demonstrated that in pre-seismic conditions the Bzn has a significant enhancement due to the crustal electrical conductivity changes, possibly associated with the earthquake-induced rupture-processes and high-pressure fluid flow through the faulting system developed inside the foci and its neighboring area. After analyzing the anomalous values of the normalized function Bzn obtained at Easter Island and Pilar observatories, the second one taken as reference, we used a statistical analysis, based on a standardized random variable equation, to identify on 1-2 September 2015 a pre-seismic signature related to the M8.3 earthquake. The lead time was 14 days before the M8.3 earthquake occurrence. The final conclusion is that the proposed geomagnetic methodology might be used to provide suitable information for the extreme earthquake hazard assessment.

  9. Earthquake prediction evaluation standards applied to the VAN Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jackson, David D.

    Earthquake prediction research must meet certain standards before it can be suitably evaluated for potential application in decision making. For methods that result in a binary (on or off) alarm condition, requirements include (1) a quantitative description of observables that trigger an alarm, (2) a quantitative description, including ranges of time, location, and magnitude, of the predicted earthquakes, (3) documented evidence of all previous alarms, (4) a complete list of predicted earthquakes, (5) a complete list of unpredicted earthquakes. The VAN technique [Varotsos and Lazaridou, 1991; Varotsos et al., 1996] has not yet been stated as a testable hypothesis. It fails criteria (1) and (2) so it is not ready to be evaluated properly. Although telegrams were transmitted in advance of claimed successes, these telegrams did not fully specify the predicted events, and all of the published statistical evaluations involve many subjective ex post facto decisions. Lacking a statistically demonstrated relationship to earthquakes, a candidate prediction technique should satisfy several plausibility criteria, including: (1) a reasonable relationship between the location of the candidate precursor and that of the predicted earthquake, (2) some demonstration that the candidate precursory observations are related to stress, strain, or other quantities related to earthquakes, and (3) the existence of co-seismic as well as pre-seismic variations of the candidate precursor. The VAN technique meets none of these criteria.

  10. Generalized statistical mechanics approaches to earthquakes and tectonics

    PubMed Central

    Papadakis, Giorgos; Michas, Georgios

    2016-01-01

    Despite the extreme complexity that characterizes the mechanism of the earthquake generation process, simple empirical scaling relations apply to the collective properties of earthquakes and faults in a variety of tectonic environments and scales. The physical characterization of those properties and the scaling relations that describe them attract a wide scientific interest and are incorporated in the probabilistic forecasting of seismicity in local, regional and planetary scales. Considerable progress has been made in the analysis of the statistical mechanics of earthquakes, which, based on the principle of entropy, can provide a physical rationale to the macroscopic properties frequently observed. The scale-invariant properties, the (multi) fractal structures and the long-range interactions that have been found to characterize fault and earthquake populations have recently led to the consideration of non-extensive statistical mechanics (NESM) as a consistent statistical mechanics framework for the description of seismicity. The consistency between NESM and observations has been demonstrated in a series of publications on seismicity, faulting, rock physics and other fields of geosciences. The aim of this review is to present in a concise manner the fundamental macroscopic properties of earthquakes and faulting and how these can be derived by using the notions of statistical mechanics and NESM, providing further insights into earthquake physics and fault growth processes. PMID:28119548

  11. Comparing the stress change characteristics and aftershock decay rate of the 2011 Mineral, VA, earthquake with similar earthquakes from a variety of tectonic settings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walsh, L. S.; Montesi, L. G.; Sauber, J. M.; Watters, T. R.; Kim, W.; Martin, A. J.; Anderson, R.

    2011-12-01

    On August 23, 2011, the magnitude 5.8 Mineral, VA, earthquake rocked the U.S. national capital region (Washington, DC) drawing worldwide attention to the occurrence of intraplate earthquakes. Using regional Coulomb stress change, we evaluate to what extent slip on faults during the Mineral, VA, earthquake and its aftershocks may have increased stress on notable Cenozoic fault systems in the DC metropolitan area: the central Virginia seismic zone, the DC fault zone, and the Stafford fault system. Our Coulomb stress maps indicate that the transfer of stress from the Mineral, VA, mainshock was at least 500 times greater than that produced from the magnitude 3.4 Germantown, MD, earthquake that occurred northwest of DC on July 16, 2010. Overall, the Mineral, VA, earthquake appears to have loaded faults of optimum orientation in the DC metropolitan region, bringing them closer to failure. The distribution of aftershocks of the Mineral, VA, earthquake will be compared with Coulomb stress change maps. We further characterize the Mineral, VA, earthquake by comparing its aftershock decay rate with that of blind thrust earthquakes with similar magnitude, focal mechanism, and depth from a variety of tectonic settings. In particular, we compare aftershock decay relations of the Mineral, VA, earthquake with two well studied California reverse faulting events, the August 4, 1985 Kettleman Hills (Mw = 6.1) and October 1, 1987 Whittier Narrow (Mw = 5.9) earthquakes. Through these relations we test the hypothesis that aftershock duration is inversely proportional to fault stressing rate, suggesting that aftershocks in active tectonic margins may last only a few years while aftershocks in intraplate regions could endure for decades to a century.

  12. Large-Scale Earthquake Countermeasures Act and the Earthquake Prediction Council in Japan

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Rikitake, T.

    1979-08-07

    The Large-Scale Earthquake Countermeasures Act was enacted in Japan in December 1978. This act aims at mitigating earthquake hazards by designating an area to be an area under intensified measures against earthquake disaster, such designation being based on long-term earthquake prediction information, and by issuing an earthquake warnings statement based on imminent prediction information, when possible. In an emergency case as defined by the law, the prime minister will be empowered to take various actions which cannot be taken at ordinary times. For instance, he may ask the Self-Defense Force to come into the earthquake-threatened area before the earthquake occurrence.more » A Prediction Council has been formed in order to evaluate premonitory effects that might be observed over the Tokai area, which was designated an area under intensified measures against earthquake disaster some time in June 1979. An extremely dense observation network has been constructed over the area.« less

  13. Foreshocks, aftershocks, and earthquake probabilities: Accounting for the landers earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Lucile M.

    1994-01-01

    The equation to determine the probability that an earthquake occurring near a major fault will be a foreshock to a mainshock on that fault is modified to include the case of aftershocks to a previous earthquake occurring near the fault. The addition of aftershocks to the background seismicity makes its less probable that an earthquake will be a foreshock, because nonforeshocks have become more common. As the aftershocks decay with time, the probability that an earthquake will be a foreshock increases. However, fault interactions between the first mainshock and the major fault can increase the long-term probability of a characteristic earthquake on that fault, which will, in turn, increase the probability that an event is a foreshock, compensating for the decrease caused by the aftershocks.

  14. Deep crustal earthquakes associated with continental rifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doser, Diane I.; Yarwood, Dennis R.

    1994-01-01

    Deep (> 20 km) crustal earthquakes have occurred within or along the margins of at least four continental rift zones. The largest of these deep crustal earthquakes ( M ⩾ 5.0) have strike-slip or oblique-slip mechanisms with T-axes oriented similarly to those associated with shallow normal faulting within the rift zones. The majority of deep crustal earthquakes occur along the rift margins in regions that have cooler, thicker crust. Several deep crustal events, however, occur in regions of high heat flow. These regions also appear to be regions of high strain, a factor that could account for the observed depths. We believe the deep crustal earthquakes represent either the relative motion of rift zones with respect to adjacent stable regions or the propagation of rifting into stable regions.

  15. The Technical Efficiency of Earthquake Medical Rapid Response Teams Following Disasters: The Case of the 2010 Yushu Earthquake in China.

    PubMed

    Liu, Xu; Tang, Bihan; Yang, Hongyang; Liu, Yuan; Xue, Chen; Zhang, Lulu

    2015-12-04

    Performance assessments of earthquake medical rapid response teams (EMRRTs), particularly the first responders deployed to the hardest hit areas following major earthquakes, should consider efficient and effective use of resources. This study assesses the daily technical efficiency of EMRRTs in the emergency period immediately following the 2010 Yushu earthquake in China. Data on EMRRTs were obtained from official daily reports of the general headquarters for Yushu earthquake relief, the emergency office of the National Ministry of Health, and the Health Department of Qinghai Province, for a sample of data on 15 EMRRTs over 62 days. Data envelopment analysis was used to examine the technical efficiency in a constant returns to scale model, a variable returns to scale model, and the scale efficiency of EMRRTs. Tobit regression was applied to analyze the effects of corresponding influencing factors. The average technical efficiency scores under constant returns to scale, variable returns to scale, and the scale efficiency scores of the 62 units of analysis were 77.95%, 89.00%, and 87.47%, respectively. The staff-to-bed ratio was significantly related to global technical efficiency. The date of rescue was significantly related to pure technical efficiency. The type of institution to which an EMRRT belonged and the staff-to-bed ratio were significantly related to scale efficiency. This study provides evidence that supports improvements to EMRRT efficiency and serves as a reference for earthquake emergency medical rapid assistance leaders and teams.

  16. Earthquake catalog for estimation of maximum earthquake magnitude, Central and Eastern United States: Part B, historical earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wheeler, Russell L.

    2014-01-01

    Computation of probabilistic earthquake hazard requires an estimate of Mmax: the moment magnitude of the largest earthquake that is thought to be possible within a specified geographic region. The region specified in this report is the Central and Eastern United States and adjacent Canada. Parts A and B of this report describe the construction of a global catalog of moderate to large earthquakes that occurred worldwide in tectonic analogs of the Central and Eastern United States. Examination of histograms of the magnitudes of these earthquakes allows estimation of Central and Eastern United States Mmax. The catalog and Mmax estimates derived from it are used in the 2014 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey national seismic-hazard maps. Part A deals with prehistoric earthquakes, and this part deals with historical events.

  17. Understanding earthquake hazards in urban areas - Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boyd, Oliver S.

    2012-01-01

    The region surrounding Evansville, Indiana, has experienced minor damage from earthquakes several times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and the proximity of Evansville to the Wabash Valley and New Madrid seismic zones, there is concern among nearby communities about hazards from earthquakes. Earthquakes currently cannot be predicted, but scientists can estimate how strongly the ground is likely to shake as a result of an earthquake and are able to design structures to withstand this estimated ground shaking. Earthquake-hazard maps provide one way of conveying such information and can help the region of Evansville prepare for future earthquakes and reduce earthquake-caused loss of life and financial and structural loss. The Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project (EAEHMP) has produced three types of hazard maps for the Evansville area: (1) probabilistic seismic-hazard maps show the ground motion that is expected to be exceeded with a given probability within a given period of time; (2) scenario ground-shaking maps show the expected shaking from two specific scenario earthquakes; (3) liquefaction-potential maps show how likely the strong ground shaking from the scenario earthquakes is to produce liquefaction. These maps complement the U.S. Geological Survey's National Seismic Hazard Maps but are more detailed regionally and take into account surficial geology, soil thickness, and soil stiffness; these elements greatly affect ground shaking.

  18. Do weak global stresses synchronize earthquakes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bendick, R.; Bilham, R.

    2017-08-01

    Insofar as slip in an earthquake is related to the strain accumulated near a fault since a previous earthquake, and this process repeats many times, the earthquake cycle approximates an autonomous oscillator. Its asymmetric slow accumulation of strain and rapid release is quite unlike the harmonic motion of a pendulum and need not be time predictable, but still resembles a class of repeating systems known as integrate-and-fire oscillators, whose behavior has been shown to demonstrate a remarkable ability to synchronize to either external or self-organized forcing. Given sufficient time and even very weak physical coupling, the phases of sets of such oscillators, with similar though not necessarily identical period, approach each other. Topological and time series analyses presented here demonstrate that earthquakes worldwide show evidence of such synchronization. Though numerous studies demonstrate that the composite temporal distribution of major earthquakes in the instrumental record is indistinguishable from random, the additional consideration of event renewal interval serves to identify earthquake groupings suggestive of synchronization that are absent in synthetic catalogs. We envisage the weak forces responsible for clustering originate from lithospheric strain induced by seismicity itself, by finite strains over teleseismic distances, or by other sources of lithospheric loading such as Earth's variable rotation. For example, quasi-periodic maxima in rotational deceleration are accompanied by increased global seismicity at multidecadal intervals.

  19. A Bayesian explanation of the "Uncanny Valley" effect and related psychological phenomena

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, Roger K.

    2012-11-01

    There are a number of psychological phenomena in which dramatic emotional responses are evoked by seemingly innocuous perceptual stimuli. A well known example is the `uncanny valley' effect whereby a near human-looking artifact can trigger feelings of eeriness and repulsion. Although such phenomena are reasonably well documented, there is no quantitative explanation for the findings and no mathematical model that is capable of predicting such behavior. Here I show (using a Bayesian model of categorical perception) that differential perceptual distortion arising from stimuli containing conflicting cues can give rise to a perceptual tension at category boundaries that could account for these phenomena. The model is not only the first quantitative explanation of the uncanny valley effect, but it may also provide a mathematical explanation for a range of social situations in which conflicting cues give rise to negative, fearful or even violent reactions.

  20. Continuing megathrust earthquake potential in Chile after the 2014 Iquique earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hayes, Gavin P.; Herman, Matthew W.; Barnhart, William D.; Furlong, Kevin P.; Riquelme, Sebástian; Benz, Harley M.; Bergman, Eric; Barrientos, Sergio; Earle, Paul S.; Samsonov, Sergey

    2014-01-01

    The seismic gap theory identifies regions of elevated hazard based on a lack of recent seismicity in comparison with other portions of a fault. It has successfully explained past earthquakes (see, for example, ref. 2) and is useful for qualitatively describing where large earthquakes might occur. A large earthquake had been expected in the subduction zone adjacent to northern Chile which had not ruptured in a megathrust earthquake since a M ~8.8 event in 1877. On 1 April 2014 a M 8.2 earthquake occurred within this seismic gap. Here we present an assessment of the seismotectonics of the March–April 2014 Iquique sequence, including analyses of earthquake relocations, moment tensors, finite fault models, moment deficit calculations and cumulative Coulomb stress transfer. This ensemble of information allows us to place the sequence within the context of regional seismicity and to identify areas of remaining and/or elevated hazard. Our results constrain the size and spatial extent of rupture, and indicate that this was not the earthquake that had been anticipated. Significant sections of the northern Chile subduction zone have not ruptured in almost 150 years, so it is likely that future megathrust earthquakes will occur to the south and potentially to the north of the 2014 Iquique sequence.

  1. Continuing megathrust earthquake potential in Chile after the 2014 Iquique earthquake.

    PubMed

    Hayes, Gavin P; Herman, Matthew W; Barnhart, William D; Furlong, Kevin P; Riquelme, Sebástian; Benz, Harley M; Bergman, Eric; Barrientos, Sergio; Earle, Paul S; Samsonov, Sergey

    2014-08-21

    The seismic gap theory identifies regions of elevated hazard based on a lack of recent seismicity in comparison with other portions of a fault. It has successfully explained past earthquakes (see, for example, ref. 2) and is useful for qualitatively describing where large earthquakes might occur. A large earthquake had been expected in the subduction zone adjacent to northern Chile, which had not ruptured in a megathrust earthquake since a M ∼8.8 event in 1877. On 1 April 2014 a M 8.2 earthquake occurred within this seismic gap. Here we present an assessment of the seismotectonics of the March-April 2014 Iquique sequence, including analyses of earthquake relocations, moment tensors, finite fault models, moment deficit calculations and cumulative Coulomb stress transfer. This ensemble of information allows us to place the sequence within the context of regional seismicity and to identify areas of remaining and/or elevated hazard. Our results constrain the size and spatial extent of rupture, and indicate that this was not the earthquake that had been anticipated. Significant sections of the northern Chile subduction zone have not ruptured in almost 150 years, so it is likely that future megathrust earthquakes will occur to the south and potentially to the north of the 2014 Iquique sequence.

  2. Environmental consequences of postulated plutonium releases from General Electric Company Vallecitos Nuclear Center, Vallecitos, California, as a result of severe natural phenomena

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Jamison, J.D.; Watson, E.C.

    1980-11-01

    Potential environmental consequences in terms of radiation dose to people are presented for postulated plutonium releases caused by severe natural phenomena at the General Electric Company Vallecitos Nuclear Center, Vallecitos, California. The severe natural phenomena considered are earthquakes, tornadoes, and high straight-line winds. Maximum plutonium deposition values are given for significant locations around the site. All important potential exposure pathways are examined. The most likely 50-year committed dose equivalents are given for the maximum-exposed individual and the population within a 50-mile radius of the plant. The maximum plutonium deposition values likely to occur offsite are also given. The most likelymore » calculated 50-year collective committed dose equivalents are all much lower than the collective dose equivalent expected from 50 years of exposure to natural background radiation and medical x-rays. The most likely maximum residual plutonium contamination estimated to be deposited offsite following the earthquakes, and the 180-mph and 230-mph tornadoes are above the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) proposed guideline for plutonium in the general environment of 0.2 ..mu..Ci/m/sup 2/. The deposition values following the 135-mph tornado are below the EPA proposed guidelines.« less

  3. Optimizing correlation techniques for improved earthquake location

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schaff, D.P.; Bokelmann, G.H.R.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Zanzerkia, E.; Waldhauser, F.; Beroza, G.C.

    2004-01-01

    Earthquake location using relative arrival time measurements can lead to dramatically reduced location errors and a view of fault-zone processes with unprecedented detail. There are two principal reasons why this approach reduces location errors. The first is that the use of differenced arrival times to solve for the vector separation of earthquakes removes from the earthquake location problem much of the error due to unmodeled velocity structure. The second reason, on which we focus in this article, is that waveform cross correlation can substantially reduce measurement error. While cross correlation has long been used to determine relative arrival times with subsample precision, we extend correlation measurements to less similar waveforms, and we introduce a general quantitative means to assess when correlation data provide an improvement over catalog phase picks. We apply the technique to local earthquake data from the Calaveras Fault in northern California. Tests for an example streak of 243 earthquakes demonstrate that relative arrival times with normalized cross correlation coefficients as low as ???70%, interevent separation distances as large as to 2 km, and magnitudes up to 3.5 as recorded on the Northern California Seismic Network are more precise than relative arrival times determined from catalog phase data. Also discussed are improvements made to the correlation technique itself. We find that for large time offsets, our implementation of time-domain cross correlation is often more robust and that it recovers more observations than the cross spectral approach. Longer time windows give better results than shorter ones. Finally, we explain how thresholds and empirical weighting functions may be derived to optimize the location procedure for any given region of interest, taking advantage of the respective strengths of diverse correlation and catalog phase data on different length scales.

  4. Stochastic dynamic modeling of regular and slow earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aso, N.; Ando, R.; Ide, S.

    2017-12-01

    Both regular and slow earthquakes are slip phenomena on plate boundaries and are simulated by a (quasi-)dynamic modeling [Liu and Rice, 2005]. In these numerical simulations, spatial heterogeneity is usually considered not only for explaining real physical properties but also for evaluating the stability of the calculations or the sensitivity of the results on the condition. However, even though we discretize the model space with small grids, heterogeneity at smaller scales than the grid size is not considered in the models with deterministic governing equations. To evaluate the effect of heterogeneity at the smaller scales we need to consider stochastic interactions between slip and stress in a dynamic modeling. Tidal stress is known to trigger or affect both regular and slow earthquakes [Yabe et al., 2015; Ide et al., 2016], and such an external force with fluctuation can also be considered as a stochastic external force. A healing process of faults may also be stochastic, so we introduce stochastic friction law. In the present study, we propose a stochastic dynamic model to explain both regular and slow earthquakes. We solve mode III problem, which corresponds to the rupture propagation along the strike direction. We use BIEM (boundary integral equation method) scheme to simulate slip evolution, but we add stochastic perturbations in the governing equations, which is usually written in a deterministic manner. As the simplest type of perturbations, we adopt Gaussian deviations in the formulation of the slip-stress kernel, external force, and friction. By increasing the amplitude of perturbations of the slip-stress kernel, we reproduce complicated rupture process of regular earthquakes including unilateral and bilateral ruptures. By perturbing external force, we reproduce slow rupture propagation at a scale of km/day. The slow propagation generated by a combination of fast interaction at S-wave velocity is analogous to the kinetic theory of gasses: thermal

  5. Earthquakes: Predicting the unpredictable?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, Susan E.

    2005-01-01

    The earthquake prediction pendulum has swung from optimism in the 1970s to rather extreme pessimism in the 1990s. Earlier work revealed evidence of possible earthquake precursors: physical changes in the planet that signal that a large earthquake is on the way. Some respected earthquake scientists argued that earthquakes are likewise fundamentally unpredictable. The fate of the Parkfield prediction experiment appeared to support their arguments: A moderate earthquake had been predicted along a specified segment of the central San Andreas fault within five years of 1988, but had failed to materialize on schedule. At some point, however, the pendulum began to swing back. Reputable scientists began using the "P-word" in not only polite company, but also at meetings and even in print. If the optimism regarding earthquake prediction can be attributed to any single cause, it might be scientists' burgeoning understanding of the earthquake cycle.

  6. Debris flow susceptibility assessment after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Xuanmei; van Westen, Cees; Tang, Chenxiao; Tang, Chuan

    2014-05-01

    Due to a tremendous amount of loose material from landslides that occurred during the Wenchuan earthquake, the frequency and magnitude of debris flows have been immensely increased, causing many casualties and economic losses. This study attempts to assess the post-earthquake debris flow susceptibility based on catchment units in the Wenchuan county, one of the most severely damaged county by the earthquake. The post earthquake debris flow inventory was created by RS image interpretation and field survey. According to our knowledge to the field, several relevant factors were determined as indicators for post-earthquake debris flow occurrence, including the distance to fault surface rupture, peak ground acceleration (PGA), coseismic landslide density, rainfall data, internal relief, slope, drainage density, stream steepness index, existing mitigation works etc. These indicators were then used as inputs in a heuristic model that was developed by adapting the Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation (SMCE) method. The relative importance of the indicators was evaluated according to their contributions to the debris flow events that have occurred after the earthquake. The ultimate goal of this study is to estimate the relative likelihood of debris flow occurrence in each catchment, and use this result together with elements at risk and vulnerability information to assess the changing risk of the most susceptible catchment.

  7. Journal of the Chinese Institute of Engineers. Special Issue: Commemoration of Chi-Chi Earthquake (II)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2002-09-01

    Contents include the following: Deep Electromagnetic Images of Seismogenic Zone of the Chi-Chi (Taiwan) Earthquake; New Techniques for Stress-Forecasting Earthquakes; Aspects of Characteristics of Near-Fault Ground Motions of the 1999 Chi-Chi (Taiwan) Earthquake; Liquefaction Damage and Related Remediation in Wufeng after the Chi-Chi Earthquake; Fines Content Effects on Liquefaction Potential Evaluation for Sites Liquefied during Chi-Chi Earthquake 1999; Damage Investigation and Liquefaction Potential Analysis of Gravelly Soil; Dynamic Characteristics of Soils in Yuan-Lin Liquefaction Area; A Preliminary Study of Earthquake Building Damage and Life Loss Due to the Chi-Chi Earthquake; Statistical Analyses of Relation between Mortality and Building Type in the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake; Development of an After Earthquake Disaster Shelter Evaluation Model; Posttraumatic Stress Reactions in Children and Adolescents One Year after the 1999 Taiwan Chi-Chi Earthquake; Changes or Not is the Question: the Meaning of Posttraumatic Stress Reactions One Year after the Taiwan Chi-Chi Earthquake.

  8. Comparison of two large earthquakes: the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake and the 2011 East Japan Earthquake.

    PubMed

    Otani, Yuki; Ando, Takayuki; Atobe, Kaori; Haiden, Akina; Kao, Sheng-Yuan; Saito, Kohei; Shimanuki, Marie; Yoshimoto, Norifumi; Fukunaga, Koichi

    2012-01-01

    Between August 15th and 19th, 2011, eight 5th-year medical students from the Keio University School of Medicine had the opportunity to visit the Peking University School of Medicine and hold a discussion session titled "What is the most effective way to educate people for survival in an acute disaster situation (before the mental health care stage)?" During the session, we discussed the following six points: basic information regarding the Sichuan Earthquake and the East Japan Earthquake, differences in preparedness for earthquakes, government actions, acceptance of medical rescue teams, earthquake-induced secondary effects, and media restrictions. Although comparison of the two earthquakes was not simple, we concluded that three major points should be emphasized to facilitate the most effective course of disaster planning and action. First, all relevant agencies should formulate emergency plans and should supply information regarding the emergency to the general public and health professionals on a normal basis. Second, each citizen should be educated and trained in how to minimize the risks from earthquake-induced secondary effects. Finally, the central government should establish a single headquarters responsible for command, control, and coordination during a natural disaster emergency and should centralize all powers in this single authority. We hope this discussion may be of some use in future natural disasters in China, Japan, and worldwide.

  9. Creating a Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Assessment and Risk Management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

    2008-01-01

    Earthquakes have claimed approximately 8 million lives over the last 2,000 years (Dunbar, Lockridge and others, 1992) and fatality rates are likely to continue to rise with increased population and urbanizations of global settlements especially in developing countries. More than 75% of earthquake-related human casualties are caused by the collapse of buildings or structures (Coburn and Spence, 2002). It is disheartening to note that large fractions of the world's population still reside in informal, poorly-constructed & non-engineered dwellings which have high susceptibility to collapse during earthquakes. Moreover, with increasing urbanization half of world's population now lives in urban areas (United Nations, 2001), and half of these urban centers are located in earthquake-prone regions (Bilham, 2004). The poor performance of most building stocks during earthquakes remains a primary societal concern. However, despite this dark history and bleaker future trends, there are no comprehensive global building inventories of sufficient quality and coverage to adequately address and characterize future earthquake losses. Such an inventory is vital both for earthquake loss mitigation and for earthquake disaster response purposes. While the latter purpose is the motivation of this work, we hope that the global building inventory database described herein will find widespread use for other mitigation efforts as well. For a real-time earthquake impact alert system, such as U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER), (Wald, Earle and others, 2006), we seek to rapidly evaluate potential casualties associated with earthquake ground shaking for any region of the world. The casualty estimation is based primarily on (1) rapid estimation of the ground shaking hazard, (2) aggregating the population exposure within different building types, and (3) estimating the casualties from the collapse of vulnerable buildings. Thus, the

  10. Mexican Earthquakes and Tsunamis Catalog Reviewed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramirez-Herrera, M. T.; Castillo-Aja, R.

    2015-12-01

    Today the availability of information on the internet makes online catalogs very easy to access by both scholars and the public in general. The catalog in the "Significant Earthquake Database", managed by the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI formerly NCDC), NOAA, allows access by deploying tabular and cartographic data related to earthquakes and tsunamis contained in the database. The NCEI catalog is the product of compiling previously existing catalogs, historical sources, newspapers, and scientific articles. Because NCEI catalog has a global coverage the information is not homogeneous. Existence of historical information depends on the presence of people in places where the disaster occurred, and that the permanence of the description is preserved in documents and oral tradition. In the case of instrumental data, their availability depends on the distribution and quality of seismic stations. Therefore, the availability of information for the first half of 20th century can be improved by careful analysis of the available information and by searching and resolving inconsistencies. This study shows the advances we made in upgrading and refining data for the earthquake and tsunami catalog of Mexico since 1500 CE until today, presented in the format of table and map. Data analysis allowed us to identify the following sources of error in the location of the epicenters in existing catalogs: • Incorrect coordinate entry • Place name erroneous or mistaken • Too general data that makes difficult to locate the epicenter, mainly for older earthquakes • Inconsistency of earthquakes and the tsunami occurrence: earthquake's epicenter located too far inland reported as tsunamigenic. The process of completing the catalogs directly depends on the availability of information; as new archives are opened for inspection, there are more opportunities to complete the history of large earthquakes and tsunamis in Mexico. Here, we also present new earthquake and

  11. Earthquake risk assessment of Alexandria, Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Gaber, Hanan; Ibrahim, Hamza

    2015-01-01

    Throughout historical and recent times, Alexandria has suffered great damage due to earthquakes from both near- and far-field sources. Sometimes, the sources of such damages are not well known. During the twentieth century, the city was shaken by several earthquakes generated from inland dislocations (e.g., 29 Apr. 1974, 12 Oct. 1992, and 28 Dec. 1999) and the African continental margin (e.g., 12 Sept. 1955 and 28 May 1998). Therefore, this study estimates the earthquake ground shaking and the consequent impacts in Alexandria on the basis of two earthquake scenarios. The simulation results show that Alexandria affected by both earthquakes scenarios relatively in the same manner despite the number of casualties during the first scenario (inland dislocation) is twice larger than the second one (African continental margin). An expected percentage of 2.27 from Alexandria's total constructions (12.9 millions, 2006 Census) will be affected, 0.19 % injuries and 0.01 % deaths of the total population (4.1 millions, 2006 Census) estimated by running the first scenario. The earthquake risk profile reveals that three districts (Al-Montazah, Al-Amriya, and Shark) lie in high seismic risks, two districts (Gharb and Wasat) are in moderate, and two districts (Al-Gomrok and Burg El-Arab) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Al-Montazah is the highest vulnerable district whereas 73 % of expected damages were reported there. The undertaken analysis shows that the Alexandria urban area faces high risk. Informal areas and deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated earthquake risks (buildings damages) are concentrated at the most densely populated (Al-Montazah, Al-Amriya, and Shark) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts.

  12. The 2015 Nepal Earthquake(s): Lessons Learned From the Disability and Rehabilitation Sector's Preparation for, and Response to, Natural Disasters.

    PubMed

    Landry, Michel D; Sheppard, Phillip S; Leung, Kit; Retis, Chiara; Salvador, Edwin C; Raman, Sudha R

    2016-11-01

    The frequency of natural disasters appears to be mounting at an alarming rate, and the degree to which people are surviving such traumatic events also is increasing. Postdisaster survival often triggers increases in population and individual disability-related outcomes in the form of impairments, activity limitations, and participation restrictions, all of which have an important impact on the individual, his or her family, and their community. The increase in postdisaster disability-related outcomes has provided a rationale for the increased role of the disability and rehabilitation sector's involvement in emergency response, including physical therapists. A recent major earthquake that has drawn the world's attention occurred in the spring of 2015 in Nepal. The response of the local and international communities was large and significant, and although the collection of complex health and disability issues have yet to be fully resolved, there has been a series of important lessons learned from the 2015 Nepal earthquake(s). This perspective article outlines lessons learned from Nepal that can be applied to future disasters to reduce overall disability-related outcomes and more fully integrate rehabilitation in preparation and planning. First, information is presented on disasters in general, and then information is presented that focuses on the earthquake(s) in Nepal. Next, field experience in Nepal before, during, and after the earthquake is described, and actions that can and should be adopted prior to disasters as part of disability preparedness planning are examined. Then, the emerging roles of rehabilitation providers such as physical therapists during the immediate and postdisaster recovery phases are discussed. Finally, approaches are suggested that can be adopted to "build back better" for, and with, people with disabilities in postdisaster settings such as Nepal. © 2016 American Physical Therapy Association.

  13. Teacher Guidelines for Helping Students after an Earthquake

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Child Traumatic Stress Network, 2013

    2013-01-01

    Being in an earthquake is very frightening, and the days, weeks, and months following are very stressful. Most families recover over time, especially with the support of relatives, friends, and their community. But different families may have different experiences during and after the earthquake, including the experience of aftershocks which may…

  14. ANALYSIS ON THE GROUND DESTROYED FEATURES AND TECTONIC STRESS FIELD OF THE 2008 WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE AND OUR TREATING TACTICS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Y.; Wang, H.; Deng, Z.; You, H.

    2009-12-01

    To research the ground destroyed features and tectonic stress field of the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake, we went the earthquake-hazard area, Hongkou Town in Dujiangyan City, Yingxiu Town in Wenchuan County, Bailu Town in Pengzhou City, Yinghua Town in Shifang City, Hanwang Town in Mianzhu City and Beichuan Cit early and late twice in 2008. The geological survey was made. Firstly, the ground destroyed features of the Wenchuan Earthquake around both Yingxiu - Beichuan Fracture and Guanxian - Jiangyou Fracture were analyzed. They mainly display as the ground crack ground, road steep slope, ground deformation, road rise high and deformation, road staggering and rupture, etc. Besides, the Wenchuan Earthquake resulted in the great deal of building collapse and lots of bridges damage even break down; It can be seen that the first floor of the building disappeared or damaged seriously; Some building still stood there although damaged by the earthquake; A few of building was damaged slightly and kept intact structure. Furthermore, the earthquake caused earth slide, mudflow and rolling stone, which lead to the building destroyed seriously, river blocked up, the life line engineering destroyed. Secondly, the phenomena of the ground destroy were analyzed preliminarily. The seismic intensity was determined based on the field investigation. The damaged situation of the construction was concluded. Based on the principle of structure geology and making use of the Stereographic projection, the stress field was analyzed according to the attitude, structural nature and relations among the fracture, fault scratch and joint fissure as well as the characteristics of ground deformation thirdly. The geodynamics of the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake are probed into preliminarily. The main compressive stress (the maximum main stress) σ1 took Northeast by east direction, and the main tensile stress (the minimum main stress)σ3 took Northwest by north direction. The main fracture shows as the right

  15. The Physics of Earthquakes: In the Quest for a Unified Theory (or Model) That Quantitatively Describes the Entire Process of an Earthquake Rupture, From its Nucleation to the Dynamic Regime and to its Arrest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ohnaka, M.

    2004-12-01

    For the past four decades, great progress has been made in understanding earthquake source processes. In particular, recent progress in the field of the physics of earthquakes has contributed substantially to unraveling the earthquake generation process in quantitative terms. Yet, a fundamental problem remains unresolved in this field. The constitutive law that governs the behavior of earthquake ruptures is the basis of earthquake physics, and the governing law plays a fundamental role in accounting for the entire process of an earthquake rupture, from its nucleation to the dynamic propagation to its arrest, quantitatively in a unified and consistent manner. Therefore, without establishing the rational constitutive law, the physics of earthquakes cannot be a quantitative science in a true sense, and hence it is urgent to establish the rational constitutive law. However, it has been controversial over the past two decades, and it is still controversial, what the constitutive law for earthquake ruptures ought to be, and how it should be formulated. To resolve the controversy is a necessary step towards a more complete, unified theory of earthquake physics, and now the time is ripe to do so. Because of its fundamental importance, we have to discuss thoroughly and rigorously what the constitutive law ought to be from the standpoint of the physics of rock friction and fracture on the basis of solid evidence. There are prerequisites for the constitutive formulation. The brittle, seismogenic layer and individual faults therein are characterized by inhomogeneity, and fault inhomogeneity has profound implications for earthquake ruptures. In addition, rupture phenomena including earthquakes are inherently scale dependent; indeed, some of the physical quantities inherent in rupture exhibit scale dependence. To treat scale-dependent physical quantities inherent in the rupture over a broad scale range quantitatively in a unified and consistent manner, it is critical to

  16. Real-time earthquake monitoring: Early warning and rapid response

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    A panel was established to investigate the subject of real-time earthquake monitoring (RTEM) and suggest recommendations on the feasibility of using a real-time earthquake warning system to mitigate earthquake damage in regions of the United States. The findings of the investigation and the related recommendations are described in this report. A brief review of existing real-time seismic systems is presented with particular emphasis given to the current California seismic networks. Specific applications of a real-time monitoring system are discussed along with issues related to system deployment and technical feasibility. In addition, several non-technical considerations are addressed including cost-benefit analysis, public perceptions, safety, and liability.

  17. A Connection between Transport Phenomena and Thermodynamics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Swaney, Ross; Bird, R. Byron

    2017-01-01

    Although students take courses in transport phenomena and thermodynamics, they probably do not ask whether these two subjects are related. Here we give an answer to that question. Specifically we give relationships between the equations of change for total energy, internal energy, and entropy of transport phenomena and key equations of equilibrium…

  18. Monitoring the Earthquake source process in North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Herrmann, Robert B.; Benz, H.; Ammon, C.J.

    2011-01-01

    With the implementation of the USGS National Earthquake Information Center Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response system (PAGER), rapid determination of earthquake moment magnitude is essential, especially for earthquakes that are felt within the contiguous United States. We report an implementation of moment tensor processing for application to broad, seismically active areas of North America. This effort focuses on the selection of regional crustal velocity models, codification of data quality tests, and the development of procedures for rapid computation of the seismic moment tensor. We systematically apply these techniques to earthquakes with reported magnitude greater than 3.5 in continental North America that are not associated with a tectonic plate boundary. Using the 0.02-0.10 Hz passband, we can usually determine, with few exceptions, moment tensor solutions for earthquakes with M w as small as 3.7. The threshold is significantly influenced by the density of stations, the location of the earthquake relative to the seismic stations and, of course, the signal-to-noise ratio. With the existing permanent broadband stations in North America operated for rapid earthquake response, the seismic moment tensor of most earthquakes that are M w 4 or larger can be routinely computed. As expected the nonuniform spatial pattern of these solutions reflects the seismicity pattern. However, the orientation of the direction of maximum compressive stress and the predominant style of faulting is spatially coherent across large regions of the continent.

  19. Understanding Earthquake Hazard & Disaster in Himalaya - A Perspective on Earthquake Forecast in Himalayan Region of South Central Tibet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shanker, D.; Paudyal, ,; Singh, H.

    2010-12-01

    characterized by an extremely high annual earthquake frequency as compared to the preceding normal and the following gap episodes, and is the characteristics of the events in such an episode is causally related with the magnitude and the time of occurrence of the forthcoming earthquake. It is observed here that for the shorter duration of the preparatory time period, there will be the smaller mainshock, and vice-versa. The Western Nepal and the adjoining Tibet region are potential for the future medium size earthquakes. Accordingly, it has been estimated here that an earthquake with M 6.5 ± 0.5 may occur at any time from now onwards till December 2011 in the Western Nepal within an area bounded by 29.3°-30.5° N and 81.2°-81.9° E, in the focal depth range 10 -30 km.

  20. Injection-induced earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ellsworth, William L.

    2013-01-01

    Earthquakes in unusual locations have become an important topic of discussion in both North America and Europe, owing to the concern that industrial activity could cause damaging earthquakes. It has long been understood that earthquakes can be induced by impoundment of reservoirs, surface and underground mining, withdrawal of fluids and gas from the subsurface, and injection of fluids into underground formations. Injection-induced earthquakes have, in particular, become a focus of discussion as the application of hydraulic fracturing to tight shale formations is enabling the production of oil and gas from previously unproductive formations. Earthquakes can be induced as part of the process to stimulate the production from tight shale formations, or by disposal of wastewater associated with stimulation and production. Here, I review recent seismic activity that may be associated with industrial activity, with a focus on the disposal of wastewater by injection in deep wells; assess the scientific understanding of induced earthquakes; and discuss the key scientific challenges to be met for assessing this hazard.

  1. Earthquakes; January-February 1982

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Person, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    In the United States, a number of earthquakes occurred, but only minor damage was reported. Arkansas experienced a swarm of earthquakes beginning on January 12. Canada experienced one of its strongest earthquakes in a number of years on January 9; this earthquake caused slight damage in Maine. 

  2. Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California.

    PubMed

    Lee, Ya-Ting; Turcotte, Donald L; Holliday, James R; Sachs, Michael K; Rundle, John B; Chen, Chien-Chih; Tiampo, Kristy F

    2011-10-04

    The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California was the first competitive evaluation of forecasts of future earthquake occurrence. Participants submitted expected probabilities of occurrence of M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes in 0.1° × 0.1° cells for the period 1 January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2010. Probabilities were submitted for 7,682 cells in California and adjacent regions. During this period, 31 M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes occurred in the test region. These earthquakes occurred in 22 test cells. This seismic activity was dominated by earthquakes associated with the M = 7.2, April 4, 2010, El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake in northern Mexico. This earthquake occurred in the test region, and 16 of the other 30 earthquakes in the test region could be associated with it. Nine complete forecasts were submitted by six participants. In this paper, we present the forecasts in a way that allows the reader to evaluate which forecast is the most "successful" in terms of the locations of future earthquakes. We conclude that the RELM test was a success and suggest ways in which the results can be used to improve future forecasts.

  3. Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Ya-Ting; Turcotte, Donald L.; Holliday, James R.; Sachs, Michael K.; Rundle, John B.; Chen, Chien-Chih; Tiampo, Kristy F.

    2011-01-01

    The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California was the first competitive evaluation of forecasts of future earthquake occurrence. Participants submitted expected probabilities of occurrence of M≥4.95 earthquakes in 0.1° × 0.1° cells for the period 1 January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2010. Probabilities were submitted for 7,682 cells in California and adjacent regions. During this period, 31 M≥4.95 earthquakes occurred in the test region. These earthquakes occurred in 22 test cells. This seismic activity was dominated by earthquakes associated with the M = 7.2, April 4, 2010, El Mayor–Cucapah earthquake in northern Mexico. This earthquake occurred in the test region, and 16 of the other 30 earthquakes in the test region could be associated with it. Nine complete forecasts were submitted by six participants. In this paper, we present the forecasts in a way that allows the reader to evaluate which forecast is the most “successful” in terms of the locations of future earthquakes. We conclude that the RELM test was a success and suggest ways in which the results can be used to improve future forecasts. PMID:21949355

  4. Empirical Scaling Relations of Source Parameters For The Earthquake Swarm 2000 At Novy Kostel (vogtland/nw-bohemia)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heuer, B.; Plenefisch, T.; Seidl, D.; Klinge, K.

    Investigations on the interdependence of different source parameters are an impor- tant task to get more insight into the mechanics and dynamics of earthquake rup- ture, to model source processes and to make predictions for ground motion at the surface. The interdependencies, providing so-called scaling relations, have often been investigated for large earthquakes. However, they are not commonly determined for micro-earthquakes and swarm-earthquakes, especially for those of the Vogtland/NW- Bohemia region. For the most recent swarm in the Vogtland/NW-Bohemia, which took place between August and December 2000 near Novy Kostel (Czech Republic), we systematically determine the most important source parameters such as energy E0, seismic moment M0, local magnitude ML, fault length L, corner frequency fc and rise time r and build their interdependencies. The swarm of 2000 is well suited for such investigations since it covers a large magnitude interval (1.5 ML 3.7) and there are also observations in the near-field at several stations. In the present paper we mostly concentrate on two near-field stations with hypocentral distances between 11 and 13 km, namely WERN (Wernitzgrün) and SBG (Schönberg). Our data processing includes restitution to true ground displacement and rotation into the ray-based prin- cipal co-ordinate system, which we determine by the covariance matrix of the P- and S-displacement, respectively. Data preparation, determination of the distinct source parameters as well as statistical interpretation of the results will be exemplary pre- sented. The results will be discussed with respect to temporal variations in the swarm activity (the swarm consists of eight distinct sub-episodes) and already existing focal mechanisms.

  5. Induced earthquake during the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Mw7.0): Importance of real-time shake monitoring for Earthquake Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoshiba, M.; Ogiso, M.

    2016-12-01

    Sequence of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes (Mw6.2 on April 14, Mw7.0 on April 16, and many aftershocks) caused a devastating damage at Kumamoto and Oita prefectures, Japan. During the Mw7.0 event, just after the direct S waves passing the central Oita, another M6 class event occurred there more than 80 km apart from the Mw7.0 event. The M6 event is interpreted as an induced earthquake; but it brought stronger shaking at the central Oita than that from the Mw7.0 event. We will discuss the induced earthquake from viewpoint of Earthquake Early Warning. In terms of ground shaking such as PGA and PGV, the Mw7.0 event is much smaller than those of the M6 induced earthquake at the central Oita (for example, 1/8 smaller at OIT009 station for PGA), and then it is easy to discriminate two events. However, PGD of the Mw7.0 is larger than that of the induced earthquake, and its appearance is just before the occurrence of the induced earthquake. It is quite difficult to recognize the induced earthquake from displacement waveforms only, because the displacement is strongly contaminated by that of the preceding Mw7.0 event. In many methods of EEW (including current JMA EEW system), magnitude is used for prediction of ground shaking through Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) and the magnitude is often estimated from displacement. However, displacement magnitude does not necessarily mean the best one for prediction of ground shaking, such as PGA and PGV. In case of the induced earthquake during the Kumamoto earthquake, displacement magnitude could not be estimated because of the strong contamination. Actually JMA EEW system could not recognize the induced earthquake. One of the important lessons we learned from eight years' operation of EEW is an issue of the multiple simultaneous earthquakes, such as aftershocks of the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake. Based on this lesson, we have proposed enhancement of real-time monitor of ground shaking itself instead of rapid estimation of

  6. Fluid-driven normal faulting earthquake sequences in the Taiwan orogen

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Ling-hua; Rau, Ruey-Juin; Lee, En-Jui

    2017-04-01

    Seismicity in the Central Range of Taiwan shows normal faulting mechanisms with T-axes directing NE, subparallel to the strike of the mountain belt. We analyze earthquake sequences occurred within 2012-2015 in the Nanshan area of northern Taiwan which indicating swarm behavior and migration characteristics. We select events larger than 2.0 from Central Weather Bureau catalog and use the double-difference relocation program hypoDD with waveform cross-correlation in the Nanshan area. We obtained a final count of 1406 (95%) relocated earthquakes. Moreover, we compute focal mechanisms using USGS program HASH by P-wave first motion and S/P ratio picking and 114 fault plane solutions with M 3.0-5.87 were determined. To test for fluid diffusion, we model seismicity using the equation of Shapiro et al. (1997) by fitting earthquake diffusing rate D during the migration period. According to the relocation result, seismicity in the Taiwan orogenic belt present mostly N25E orientation parallel to the mountain belt with the same direction of the tension axis. In addition, another seismic fracture depicted by seismicity rotated 35 degree counterclockwise to the NW direction. Nearly all focal mechanisms are normal fault type. In the Nanshan area, events show N10W distribution with a focal depth range from 5-12 km and illustrate fault plane dipping about 45-60 degree to SW. Three months before the M 5.87 mainshock which occurred in March, 2013, there were some foreshock events occurred in the shallow part of the fault plane of the mainshock. Half a year following the mainshock, earthquakes migrated to the north and south, respectively with processes matched the diffusion model at a rate of 0.2-0.6 m2/s. This migration pattern and diffusion rate offer an evidence of 'fluid-driven' process in the fault zone. We also find the upward migration of earthquakes in the mainshock source region. These phenomena are likely caused by the opening of the permeable conduit due to the M 5

  7. Investigation of Ionospheric Anomalies related to moderate Romanian earthquakes occurred during last decade using VLF/LF INFREP and GNSS Global Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moldovan, Iren-Adelina; Oikonomou, Christina; Haralambous, Haris; Nastase, Eduard; Emilian Toader, Victorin; Biagi, Pier Francesco; Colella, Roberto; Toma-Danila, Dragos

    2017-04-01

    Ionospheric TEC (Total Electron Content) variations and Low Frequency (LF) signal amplitude data prior to five moderate earthquakes (Mw≥5) occurred in Romania, in Vrancea crustal and subcrustal seismic zones, during the last decade were analyzed using observations from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and the European INFREP (International Network for Frontier Research on Earthquake Precursors) networks respectively, aiming to detect potential ionospheric anomalies related to these events and describe their characteristics. For this, spectral analysis on TEC data and terminator time method on VLF/LF data were applied. It was found that TEC perturbations appeared few days (1-7) up to few hours before the events lasting around 2-3 hours, with periods 20 and 3-5 minutes which could be associated with the impending earthquakes. In addition, in all three events the sunrise terminator times were delayed approximately 20-40 min few days prior and during the earthquake day. Acknowledgments This work was partially supported by the Partnership in Priority Areas Program - PNII, under MEN-UEFISCDI, DARING Project no. 69/2014 and the Nucleu Program - PN 16-35, Project no. 03 01

  8. Earthquake cycle modeling of multi-segmented faults: dynamic rupture and ground motion simulation of the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers earthquake.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petukhin, A.; Galvez, P.; Somerville, P.; Ampuero, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    We perform earthquake cycle simulations to study the characteristics of source scaling relations and strong ground motions and in multi-segmented fault ruptures. For earthquake cycle modeling, a quasi-dynamic solver (QDYN, Luo et al, 2016) is used to nucleate events and the fully dynamic solver (SPECFEM3D, Galvez et al., 2014, 2016) is used to simulate earthquake ruptures. The Mw 7.3 Landers earthquake has been chosen as a target earthquake to validate our methodology. The SCEC fault geometry for the three-segmented Landers rupture is included and extended at both ends to a total length of 200 km. We followed the 2-D spatial correlated Dc distributions based on Hillers et. al. (2007) that associates Dc distribution with different degrees of fault maturity. The fault maturity is related to the variability of Dc on a microscopic scale. Large variations of Dc represents immature faults and lower variations of Dc represents mature faults. Moreover we impose a taper (a-b) at the fault edges and limit the fault depth to 15 km. Using these settings, earthquake cycle simulations are performed to nucleate seismic events on different sections of the fault, and dynamic rupture modeling is used to propagate the ruptures. The fault segmentation brings complexity into the rupture process. For instance, the change of strike between fault segments enhances strong variations of stress. In fact, Oglesby and Mai (2012) show the normal stress varies from positive (clamping) to negative (unclamping) between fault segments, which leads to favorable or unfavorable conditions for rupture growth. To replicate these complexities and the effect of fault segmentation in the rupture process, we perform earthquake cycles with dynamic rupture modeling and generate events similar to the Mw 7.3 Landers earthquake. We extract the asperities of these events and analyze the scaling relations between rupture area, average slip and combined area of asperities versus moment magnitude. Finally, the

  9. Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Social Media Data Related to Nepal Earthquake 2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thapa, L.

    2016-06-01

    Social Medias these days have become the instant communication platform to share anything; from personal feelings to the matter of public concern, these are the easiest and aphoristic way to deliver information among the mass. With the development of Web 2.0 technologies, more and more emphasis has been given to user input in the web; the concept of Geoweb is being visualized and in the recent years, social media like Twitter, Flicker are among the popular Location Based Social Medias with locational functionality enabled in them. Nepal faced devastating earthquake on 25 April, 2015 resulting in the loss of thousands of lives, destruction in the historical-archaeological sites and properties. Instant help was offered by many countries around the globe and even lots of NGOs, INGOs and people started the rescue operations immediately; concerned authorities and people used different communication medium like Frequency Modulation Stations, Television, and Social Medias over the World Wide Web to gather information associated with the Quake and to ease the rescue activities. They also initiated campaign in the Social Media to raise the funds and support the victims. Even the social medias like Facebook, Twitter, themselves announced the helping campaign to rebuild Nepal. In such scenario, this paper features the analysis of Twitter data containing hashtag related to Nepal Earthquake 2015 together with their temporal characteristics, when were the message generated, where were these from and how these spread spatially over the internet?

  10. Classifying prion and prion-like phenomena.

    PubMed

    Harbi, Djamel; Harrison, Paul M

    2014-01-01

    The universe of prion and prion-like phenomena has expanded significantly in the past several years. Here, we overview the challenges in classifying this data informatically, given that terms such as "prion-like", "prion-related" or "prion-forming" do not have a stable meaning in the scientific literature. We examine the spectrum of proteins that have been described in the literature as forming prions, and discuss how "prion" can have a range of meaning, with a strict definition being for demonstration of infection with in vitro-derived recombinant prions. We suggest that although prion/prion-like phenomena can largely be apportioned into a small number of broad groups dependent on the type of transmissibility evidence for them, as new phenomena are discovered in the coming years, a detailed ontological approach might be necessary that allows for subtle definition of different "flavors" of prion / prion-like phenomena.

  11. Post earthquake recovery in natural gas systems--1971 San Fernando Earthquake

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Johnson, W.T. Jr.

    1983-01-01

    In this paper a concise summary of the post earthquake investigations for the 1971 San Fernando Earthquake is presented. The effects of the earthquake upon building and other above ground structures are briefly discussed. Then the damages and subsequent repairs in the natural gas systems are reported.

  12. Earthquakes; July-August, 1978

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Person, W.J.

    1979-01-01

    Earthquake activity during this period was about normal. Deaths from earthquakes were reported from Greece and Guatemala. Three major earthquakes (magnitude 7.0-7.9) occurred in Taiwan, Chile, and Costa Rica. In the United States, the most significant earthquake was a magnitude 5.6 on August 13 in southern California. 

  13. Statistical analysis of earthquakes after the 1999 MW 7.7 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake based on a modified Reasenberg-Jones model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Yuh-Ing; Huang, Chi-Shen; Liu, Jann-Yenq

    2015-12-01

    We investigated the temporal-spatial hazard of the earthquakes after the 1999 September 21 MW = 7.7 Chi-Chi shock in a continental region of Taiwan. The Reasenberg-Jones (RJ) model (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989, 1994) that combines the frequency-magnitude distribution (Gutenberg and Richter, 1944) and time-decaying occurrence rate (Utsu et al., 1995) is conventionally employed for assessing the earthquake hazard after a large shock. However, it is found that the b values in the frequency-magnitude distribution of the earthquakes in the study region dramatically decreased from background values after the Chi-Chi shock, and then gradually increased up. The observation of a time-dependent frequency-magnitude distribution motivated us to propose a modified RJ model (MRJ) to assess the earthquake hazard. To see how the models perform on assessing short-term earthquake hazard, the RJ and MRJ models were separately used to sequentially forecast earthquakes in the study region. To depict the potential rupture area for future earthquakes, we further constructed relative hazard (RH) maps based on the two models. The Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves (Swets, 1988) finally demonstrated that the RH map based on the MRJ model was, in general, superior to the one based on the original RJ model for exploring the spatial hazard of earthquakes in a short time after the Chi-Chi shock.

  14. Improvements of the offshore earthquake locations in the Earthquake Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Ta-Yi; Hsu, Hsin-Chih

    2017-04-01

    Since 2014 the Earthworm Based Earthquake Alarm Reporting (eBEAR) system has been operated and been used to issue warnings to schools. In 2015 the system started to provide warnings to the public in Taiwan via television and the cell phone. Online performance of the eBEAR system indicated that the average reporting times afforded by the system are approximately 15 and 28 s for inland and offshore earthquakes, respectively. The eBEAR system in average can provide more warning time than the current EEW system (3.2 s and 5.5 s for inland and offshore earthquakes, respectively). However, offshore earthquakes were usually located poorly because only P-wave arrivals were used in the eBEAR system. Additionally, in the early stage of the earthquake early warning system, only fewer stations are available. The poor station coverage may be a reason to answer why offshore earthquakes are difficult to locate accurately. In the Geiger's inversion procedure of earthquake location, we need to put an initial hypocenter and origin time into the location program. For the initial hypocenter, we defined some test locations on the offshore area instead of using the average of locations from triggered stations. We performed 20 programs concurrently running the Geiger's method with different pre-defined initial position to locate earthquakes. We assume that if the program with the pre-defined initial position is close to the true earthquake location, during the iteration procedure of the Geiger's method the processing time of this program should be less than others. The results show that using pre-defined locations for trial-hypocenter in the inversion procedure is able to improve the accurate of offshore earthquakes. Especially for EEW system, in the initial stage of the EEW system, only use 3 or 5 stations to locate earthquakes may lead to bad results because of poor station coverage. In this study, the pre-defined trial-locations provide a feasible way to improve the estimations of

  15. Megathrust earthquakes in Central Chile: What is next after the Maule 2010 earthquake?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madariaga, R.

    2013-05-01

    The 27 February 2010 Maule earthquake occurred in a well identified gap in the Chilean subduction zone. The event has now been studied in detail using both far-field, near field seismic and geodetic data, we will review this information gathered so far. The event broke a region that was much longer along strike than the gap left over from the 1835 Concepcion earthquake, sometimes called the Darwin earthquake because he was in the area when the earthquake occurred and made many observations. Recent studies of contemporary documents by Udias et al indicate that the area broken by the Maule earthquake in 2010 had previously broken by a similar earthquake in 1751, but several events in the magnitude 8 range occurred in the area principally in 1835 already mentioned and, more recently on 1 December 1928 to the North and on 21 May 1960 (1 1/2 days before the big Chilean earthquake of 1960). Currently the area of the 2010 earthquake and the region immediately to the North is undergoing a very large increase in seismicity with numerous clusters of seismicity that move along the plate interface. Examination of the seismicity of Chile of the 18th and 19th century show that the region immediately to the North of the 2010 earthquake broke in a very large megathrust event in July 1730. this is the largest known earthquake in central Chile. The region where this event occurred has broken in many occasions with M 8 range earthquakes in 1822, 1880, 1906, 1971 and 1985. Is it preparing for a new very large megathrust event? The 1906 earthquake of Mw 8.3 filled the central part of the gap but it has broken again on several occasions in 1971, 1973 and 1985. The main question is whether the 1906 earthquake relieved enough stresses from the 1730 rupture zone. Geodetic data shows that most of the region that broke in 1730 is currently almost fully locked from the northern end of the Maule earthquake at 34.5°S to 30°S, near the southern end of the of the Mw 8.5 Atacama earthquake of 11

  16. Road Damage Following Earthquake

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1989-01-01

    Ground shaking triggered liquefaction in a subsurface layer of water-saturated sand, producing differential lateral and vertical movement in a overlying carapace of unliquified sand and slit, which moved from right to left towards the Pajaro River. This mode of ground failure, termed lateral spreading, is a principal cause of liquefaction-related earthquake damage caused by the Oct. 17, 1989, Loma Prieta earthquake. Sand and soil grains have faces that can cause friction as they roll and slide against each other, or even cause sticking and form small voids between grains. This complex behavior can cause soil to behave like a liquid under certain conditions such as earthquakes or when powders are handled in industrial processes. Mechanics of Granular Materials (MGM) experiments aboard the Space Shuttle use the microgravity of space to simulate this behavior under conditons that carnot be achieved in laboratory tests on Earth. MGM is shedding light on the behavior of fine-grain materials under low effective stresses. Applications include earthquake engineering, granular flow technologies (such as powder feed systems for pharmaceuticals and fertilizers), and terrestrial and planetary geology. Nine MGM specimens have flown on two Space Shuttle flights. Another three are scheduled to fly on STS-107. The principal investigator is Stein Sture of the University of Colorado at Boulder. Credit: S.D. Ellen, U.S. Geological Survey

  17. Temporal variations of radon in soil related to earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Planinić, J; Radolić, V; Lazanin, Z

    2001-08-01

    A radon detector with LR-115 nuclear track film was constructed for radon concentration measurements in soil. Temporal radon variations, as well as the barometric pressure, precipitation and temperature were measured for two years. Negative correlation between radon concentration in soil and barometric pressure was found. For some of the recorded earthquakes that occurred during the observation period, soil radon anomalies may be noticed one month before the quakes.

  18. Significant earthquakes on the Enriquillo fault system, Hispaniola, 1500-2010: Implications for seismic hazard

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bakun, William H.; Flores, Claudia H.; ten Brink, Uri S.

    2012-01-01

    Historical records indicate frequent seismic activity along the north-east Caribbean plate boundary over the past 500 years, particularly on the island of Hispaniola. We use accounts of historical earthquakes to assign intensities and the intensity assignments for the 2010 Haiti earthquakes to derive an intensity attenuation relation for Hispaniola. The intensity assignments and the attenuation relation are used in a grid search to find source locations and magnitudes that best fit the intensity assignments. Here we describe a sequence of devastating earthquakes on the Enriquillo fault system in the eighteenth century. An intensity magnitude MI 6.6 earthquake in 1701 occurred near the location of the 2010 Haiti earthquake, and the accounts of the shaking in the 1701 earthquake are similar to those of the 2010 earthquake. A series of large earthquakes migrating from east to west started with the 18 October 1751 MI 7.4–7.5 earthquake, probably located near the eastern end of the fault in the Dominican Republic, followed by the 21 November 1751 MI 6.6 earthquake near Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and the 3 June 1770 MI 7.5 earthquake west of the 2010 earthquake rupture. The 2010 Haiti earthquake may mark the beginning of a new cycle of large earthquakes on the Enriquillo fault system after 240 years of seismic quiescence. The entire Enriquillo fault system appears to be seismically active; Haiti and the Dominican Republic should prepare for future devastating earthquakes.

  19. Modelling the elements of country vulnerability to earthquake disasters.

    PubMed

    Asef, M R

    2008-09-01

    Earthquakes have probably been the most deadly form of natural disaster in the past century. Diversity of earthquake specifications in terms of magnitude, intensity and frequency at the semicontinental scale has initiated various kinds of disasters at a regional scale. Additionally, diverse characteristics of countries in terms of population size, disaster preparedness, economic strength and building construction development often causes an earthquake of a certain characteristic to have different impacts on the affected region. This research focuses on the appropriate criteria for identifying the severity of major earthquake disasters based on some key observed symptoms. Accordingly, the article presents a methodology for identification and relative quantification of severity of earthquake disasters. This has led to an earthquake disaster vulnerability model at the country scale. Data analysis based on this model suggested a quantitative, comparative and meaningful interpretation of the vulnerability of concerned countries, and successfully explained which countries are more vulnerable to major disasters.

  20. Testing prediction methods: Earthquake clustering versus the Poisson model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Michael, A.J.

    1997-01-01

    Testing earthquake prediction methods requires statistical techniques that compare observed success to random chance. One technique is to produce simulated earthquake catalogs and measure the relative success of predicting real and simulated earthquakes. The accuracy of these tests depends on the validity of the statistical model used to simulate the earthquakes. This study tests the effect of clustering in the statistical earthquake model on the results. Three simulation models were used to produce significance levels for a VLF earthquake prediction method. As the degree of simulated clustering increases, the statistical significance drops. Hence, the use of a seismicity model with insufficient clustering can lead to overly optimistic results. A successful method must pass the statistical tests with a model that fully replicates the observed clustering. However, a method can be rejected based on tests with a model that contains insufficient clustering. U.S. copyright. Published in 1997 by the American Geophysical Union.

  1. POST Earthquake Debris Management — AN Overview

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarkar, Raju

    Every year natural disasters, such as fires, floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, landslides, tsunami, and tornadoes, challenge various communities of the world. Earthquakes strike with varying degrees of severity and pose both short- and long-term challenges to public service providers. Earthquakes generate shock waves and displace the ground along fault lines. These seismic forces can bring down buildings and bridges in a localized area and damage buildings and other structures in a far wider area. Secondary damage from fires, explosions, and localized flooding from broken water pipes can increase the amount of debris. Earthquake debris includes building materials, personal property, and sediment from landslides. The management of this debris, as well as the waste generated during the reconstruction works, can place significant challenges on the national and local capacities. Debris removal is a major component of every post earthquake recovery operation. Much of the debris generated from earthquake is not hazardous. Soil, building material, and green waste, such as trees and shrubs, make up most of the volume of earthquake debris. These wastes not only create significant health problems and a very unpleasant living environment if not disposed of safely and appropriately, but also can subsequently impose economical burdens on the reconstruction phase. In practice, most of the debris may be either disposed of at landfill sites, reused as materials for construction or recycled into useful commodities Therefore, the debris clearance operation should focus on the geotechnical engineering approach as an important post earthquake issue to control the quality of the incoming flow of potential soil materials. In this paper, the importance of an emergency management perspective in this geotechnical approach that takes into account the different criteria related to the operation execution is proposed by highlighting the key issues concerning the handling of the construction

  2. An earthquake history derived from stratigraphic and microfossil evidence of relative sea-level change at Coos Bay, southern coastal Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nelson, A.R.; Jennings, A.E.; Kashima, K.

    1996-01-01

    Much of the uncertainty in determining the number and magnitude of past great earthquakes in the Cascadia subduction zone of western North America stems from difficulties in using estuarine stratigraphy to infer the size and rate of late Holocene relative sea-level changes. A sequence of interbedded peaty and muddy intertidal sediment beneath a small, protected tidal marsh in a narrow inlet of Coos Bay, Oregon, records ten rapid to instantaneous rises in relative sea level. Each rise is marked by a contact that records an upward transition from peaty to muddy sediment. But only two contacts, dating from about 1700 and 2300 yr ago, show the site-wide extent and abrupt changes in lithology and foraminiferal and diatom assemblages that can be used to infer at least half a meter of sudden coseismic subsidence. Although the characteristics of a third, gradual contact do not differ from those of some contacts produced by nonseismic processes, regional correlation with other similar sequences and high-precision 14C dating suggest that the third contact records a great plate-boundary earthquake about 300 yr ago. A fourth contact formed too slowly to have been caused by coseismic subsidence. Because lithologic and microfossil data are not sufficient to distinguish a coseismic from a nonseismic origin for the other six peatmud contacts, we cannot determine earthquake recurrence intervals at this site. Similar uncertainties in great earthquake recurrence and magnitude prevail at similar sites elsewhere in the Cascadia subduction zone, except those with sequences showing changes in fossils indicative of > 1 m of sudden subsidence, sand sheets deposited by tsunamis, or liquefaction features.

  3. Practical Applications for Earthquake Scenarios Using ShakeMap

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wald, D. J.; Worden, B.; Quitoriano, V.; Goltz, J.

    2001-12-01

    In planning and coordinating emergency response, utilities, local government, and other organizations are best served by conducting training exercises based on realistic earthquake situations-ones that they are most likely to face. Scenario earthquakes can fill this role; they can be generated for any geologically plausible earthquake or for actual historic earthquakes. ShakeMap Web pages now display selected earthquake scenarios (www.trinet.org/shake/archive/scenario/html) and more events will be added as they are requested and produced. We will discuss the methodology and provide practical examples where these scenarios are used directly for risk reduction. Given a selected event, we have developed tools to make it relatively easy to generate a ShakeMap earthquake scenario using the following steps: 1) Assume a particular fault or fault segment will (or did) rupture over a certain length, 2) Determine the magnitude of the earthquake based on assumed rupture dimensions, 3) Estimate the ground shaking at all locations in the chosen area around the fault, and 4) Represent these motions visually by producing ShakeMaps and generating ground motion input for loss estimation modeling (e.g., FEMA's HAZUS). At present, ground motions are estimated using empirical attenuation relationships to estimate peak ground motions on rock conditions. We then correct the amplitude at that location based on the local site soil (NEHRP) conditions as we do in the general ShakeMap interpolation scheme. Finiteness is included explicitly, but directivity enters only through the empirical relations. Although current ShakeMap earthquake scenarios are empirically based, substantial improvements in numerical ground motion modeling have been made in recent years. However, loss estimation tools, HAZUS for example, typically require relatively high frequency (3 Hz) input for predicting losses, above the range of frequencies successfully modeled to date. Achieving full-synthetic ground motion

  4. Paranormal phenomena

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaina, Alex

    1996-08-01

    Critical analysis is given of some paranormal phenomena events (UFO, healers, psychokinesis (telekinesis))reported in Moldova. It is argued that correct analysis of paranormal phenomena should be made in the framework of electromagnetism.

  5. Results of seismological monitoring in the Cascade Range 1962-1989: earthquakes, eruptions, avalanches and other curiosities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Weaver, C.S.; Norris, R.D.; Jonientz-Trisler, C.

    1990-01-01

    Modern monitoring of seismic activity at Cascade Range volcanoes began at Longmire on Mount Rainier in 1958. Since then, there has been an expansion of the regional seismic networks in Washington, northern Oregon and northern California. Now, the Cascade Range from Lassen Peak to Mount Shasta in the south and Newberry Volcano to Mount Baker in the north is being monitored for earthquakes as small as magnitude 2.0, and many of the stratovolcanoes are monitored for non-earthquake seismic activity. This monitoring has yielded three major observations. First, tectonic earthquakes are concentrated in two segments of the Cascade Range between Mount Rainier and Mount Hood and between Mount Shasta and Lassen Peak, whereas little seismicity occurs between Mount Hood and Mount Shasta. Second, the volcanic activity and associated phenomena at Mount St. Helens have produced intense and widely varied seismicity. And third, at the northern stratovolcanoes, signals generated by surficial events such as debris flows, icequakes, steam emissions, rockfalls and icefalls are seismically recorded. Such records have been used to alert authorities of dangerous events in progress. -Authors

  6. Protecting your family from earthquakes: The seven steps to earthquake safety

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Developed by American Red Cross, Asian Pacific Fund

    2007-01-01

    This book is provided here because of the importance of preparing for earthquakes before they happen. Experts say it is very likely there will be a damaging San Francisco Bay Area earthquake in the next 30 years and that it will strike without warning. It may be hard to find the supplies and services we need after this earthquake. For example, hospitals may have more patients than they can treat, and grocery stores may be closed for weeks. You will need to provide for your family until help arrives. To keep our loved ones and our community safe, we must prepare now. Some of us come from places where earthquakes are also common. However, the dangers of earthquakes in our homelands may be very different than in the Bay Area. For example, many people in Asian countries die in major earthquakes when buildings collapse or from big sea waves called tsunami. In the Bay Area, the main danger is from objects inside buildings falling on people. Take action now to make sure your family will be safe in an earthquake. The first step is to read this book carefully and follow its advice. By making your home safer, you help make our community safer. Preparing for earthquakes is important, and together we can make sure our families and community are ready. English version p. 3-13 Chinese version p. 14-24 Vietnamese version p. 25-36 Korean version p. 37-48

  7. Earthquake Triggering in the September 2017 Mexican Earthquake Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fielding, E. J.; Gombert, B.; Duputel, Z.; Huang, M. H.; Liang, C.; Bekaert, D. P.; Moore, A. W.; Liu, Z.; Ampuero, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Southern Mexico was struck by four earthquakes with Mw > 6 and numerous smaller earthquakes in September 2017, starting with the 8 September Mw 8.2 Tehuantepec earthquake beneath the Gulf of Tehuantepec offshore Chiapas and Oaxaca. We study whether this M8.2 earthquake triggered the three subsequent large M>6 quakes in southern Mexico to improve understanding of earthquake interactions and time-dependent risk. All four large earthquakes were extensional despite the the subduction of the Cocos plate. The traditional definition of aftershocks: likely an aftershock if it occurs within two rupture lengths of the main shock soon afterwards. Two Mw 6.1 earthquakes, one half an hour after the M8.2 beneath the Tehuantepec gulf and one on 23 September near Ixtepec in Oaxaca, both fit as traditional aftershocks, within 200 km of the main rupture. The 19 September Mw 7.1 Puebla earthquake was 600 km away from the M8.2 shock, outside the standard aftershock zone. Geodetic measurements from interferometric analysis of synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and time-series analysis of GPS station data constrain finite fault total slip models for the M8.2, M7.1, and M6.1 Ixtepec earthquakes. The early M6.1 aftershock was too close in time and space to the M8.2 to measure with InSAR or GPS. We analyzed InSAR data from Copernicus Sentinel-1A and -1B satellites and JAXA ALOS-2 satellite. Our preliminary geodetic slip model for the M8.2 quake shows significant slip extended > 150 km NW from the hypocenter, longer than slip in the v1 finite-fault model (FFM) from teleseismic waveforms posted by G. Hayes at USGS NEIC. Our slip model for the M7.1 earthquake is similar to the v2 NEIC FFM. Interferograms for the M6.1 Ixtepec quake confirm the shallow depth in the upper-plate crust and show centroid is about 30 km SW of the NEIC epicenter, a significant NEIC location bias, but consistent with cluster relocations (E. Bergman, pers. comm.) and with Mexican SSN location. Coulomb static stress

  8. Earthquake catalog for estimation of maximum earthquake magnitude, Central and Eastern United States: Part A, Prehistoric earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wheeler, Russell L.

    2014-01-01

    Computation of probabilistic earthquake hazard requires an estimate of Mmax, the maximum earthquake magnitude thought to be possible within a specified geographic region. This report is Part A of an Open-File Report that describes the construction of a global catalog of moderate to large earthquakes, from which one can estimate Mmax for most of the Central and Eastern United States and adjacent Canada. The catalog and Mmax estimates derived from it were used in the 2014 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey national seismic-hazard maps. This Part A discusses prehistoric earthquakes that occurred in eastern North America, northwestern Europe, and Australia, whereas a separate Part B deals with historical events.

  9. The initial subevent of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: Is earthquake size predictable?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kilb, Debi; Gomberg, J.

    1999-01-01

    We examine the initial subevent (ISE) of the M?? 6.7, 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake in order to discriminate between two end-member rupture initiation models: the 'preslip' and 'cascade' models. Final earthquake size may be predictable from an ISE's seismic signature in the preslip model but not in the cascade model. In the cascade model ISEs are simply small earthquakes that can be described as purely dynamic ruptures. In this model a large earthquake is triggered by smaller earthquakes; there is no size scaling between triggering and triggered events and a variety of stress transfer mechanisms are possible. Alternatively, in the preslip model, a large earthquake nucleates as an aseismically slipping patch in which the patch dimension grows and scales with the earthquake's ultimate size; the byproduct of this loading process is the ISE. In this model, the duration of the ISE signal scales with the ultimate size of the earthquake, suggesting that nucleation and earthquake size are determined by a more predictable, measurable, and organized process. To distinguish between these two end-member models we use short period seismograms recorded by the Southern California Seismic Network. We address questions regarding the similarity in hypocenter locations and focal mechanisms of the ISE and the mainshock. We also compare the ISE's waveform characteristics to those of small earthquakes and to the beginnings of earthquakes with a range of magnitudes. We find that the focal mechanisms of the ISE and mainshock are indistinguishable, and both events may have nucleated on and ruptured the same fault plane. These results satisfy the requirements for both models and thus do not discriminate between them. However, further tests show the ISE's waveform characteristics are similar to those of typical small earthquakes in the vicinity and more importantly, do not scale with the mainshock magnitude. These results are more consistent with the cascade model.

  10. Along-strike variations in fault frictional properties along the San Andreas Fault near Cholame, California from joint earthquake and low-frequency earthquake relocations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harrington, Rebecca M.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Griffiths, Emily M.; Zeng, Xiangfang; Thurber, Clifford H.

    2016-01-01

    Recent observations of low‐frequency earthquakes (LFEs) and tectonic tremor along the Parkfield–Cholame segment of the San Andreas fault suggest slow‐slip earthquakes occur in a transition zone between the shallow fault, which accommodates slip by a combination of aseismic creep and earthquakes (<15  km depth), and the deep fault, which accommodates slip by stable sliding (>35  km depth). However, the spatial relationship between shallow earthquakes and LFEs remains unclear. Here, we present precise relocations of 34 earthquakes and 34 LFEs recorded during a temporary deployment of 13 broadband seismic stations from May 2010 to July 2011. We use the temporary array waveform data, along with data from permanent seismic stations and a new high‐resolution 3D velocity model, to illuminate the fine‐scale details of the seismicity distribution near Cholame and the relation to the distribution of LFEs. The depth of the boundary between earthquakes and LFE hypocenters changes along strike and roughly follows the 350°C isotherm, suggesting frictional behavior may be, in part, thermally controlled. We observe no overlap in the depth of earthquakes and LFEs, with an ∼5  km separation between the deepest earthquakes and shallowest LFEs. In addition, clustering in the relocated seismicity near the 2004 Mw 6.0 Parkfield earthquake hypocenter and near the northern boundary of the 1857 Mw 7.8 Fort Tejon rupture may highlight areas of frictional heterogeneities on the fault where earthquakes tend to nucleate.

  11. A Comparison of Geodetic and Geologic Rates Prior to Large Strike-Slip Earthquakes: A Diversity of Earthquake-Cycle Behaviors?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dolan, James F.; Meade, Brendan J.

    2017-12-01

    Comparison of preevent geodetic and geologic rates in three large-magnitude (Mw = 7.6-7.9) strike-slip earthquakes reveals a wide range of behaviors. Specifically, geodetic rates of 26-28 mm/yr for the North Anatolian fault along the 1999 MW = 7.6 Izmit rupture are ˜40% faster than Holocene geologic rates. In contrast, geodetic rates of ˜6-8 mm/yr along the Denali fault prior to the 2002 MW = 7.9 Denali earthquake are only approximately half as fast as the latest Pleistocene-Holocene geologic rate of ˜12 mm/yr. In the third example where a sufficiently long pre-earthquake geodetic time series exists, the geodetic and geologic rates along the 2001 MW = 7.8 Kokoxili rupture on the Kunlun fault are approximately equal at ˜11 mm/yr. These results are not readily explicable with extant earthquake-cycle modeling, suggesting that they may instead be due to some combination of regional kinematic fault interactions, temporal variations in the strength of lithospheric-scale shear zones, and/or variations in local relative plate motion rate. Whatever the exact causes of these variable behaviors, these observations indicate that either the ratio of geodetic to geologic rates before an earthquake may not be diagnostic of the time to the next earthquake, as predicted by many rheologically based geodynamic models of earthquake-cycle behavior, or different behaviors characterize different fault systems in a manner that is not yet understood or predictable.

  12. The earthquake educational institute at San Francisco State University

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sullivan, R.; Pestrong, R.; Strongin, H.

    1980-01-01

    The Earthquake Educational Institute was established in 1978 at San Francisco State University under a grant from the U.S National Science Foundation. The goal of the Institute is to develop earthquake-related curricula for use in elementary and secondary schools in the hope that, by educating students about earthquakes, they will be better prepared for the disruptions associated with a major quake. To date, about 140 elementary and secondary school teachers and administrators have enrolled in the program. 

  13. Classification of Earthquake-triggered Landslide Events - Review of Classical and Particular Cases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Braun, A.; Havenith, H. B.; Schlögel, R.

    2016-12-01

    Seismically induced landslides often contribute to a significant degree to the losses related to earthquakes. The identification of possible extends of landslide affected areas can help to target emergency measures when an earthquake occurs or improve the resilience of inhabited areas and critical infrastructure in zones of high seismic hazard. Moreover, landslide event sizes are an important proxy for the estimation of the intensity and magnitude of past earthquakes in paleoseismic studies, allowing us to improve seismic hazard assessment over longer terms. Not only earthquake intensity, but also factors such as the fault characteristics, topography, climatic conditions and the geological environment have a major impact on the intensity and spatial distribution of earthquake induced landslides. Inspired by classical reviews of earthquake induced landslides, e.g. by Keefer or Jibson, we present here a review of factors contributing to earthquake triggered slope failures based on an `event-by-event' classification approach. The objective of this analysis is to enable the short-term prediction of earthquake triggered landslide event sizes in terms of numbers and size of the affected area right after an earthquake event occurred. Five main factors, `Intensity', `Fault', `Topographic energy', `Climatic conditions' and `Surface geology' were used to establish a relationship to the number and spatial extend of landslides triggered by an earthquake. Based on well-documented recent earthquakes (e.g. Haiti 2010, Wenchuan 2008) and on older events for which reliable extensive information was available (e.g. Northridge 1994, Loma Prieta 1989, Guatemala 1976, Peru 1970) the combination and relative weight of the factors was calibrated. The calibrated factor combination was then applied to more than 20 earthquake events for which landslide distribution characteristics could be crosschecked. We present cases where our prediction model performs well and discuss particular cases

  14. The persistence of directivity in small earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boatwright, J.

    2007-01-01

    We derive a simple inversion of peak ground acceleration (PGA) or peak ground velocity (PGV) for rupture direction and rupture velocity and then test this inversion on the peak motions obtained from seven 3.5 ??? M ??? 4.1 earthquakes that occurred in two clusters in November 2002 and February 2003 near San Ramon, California. These clusters were located on two orthogonal strike-slip faults so that the events share the same approximate focal mechanism but not the same fault plane. Three earthquakes exhibit strong directivity, but the other four earthquakes exhibit relatively weak directivity. We use the residual PGAs and PGVs from the other six events to determine station corrections for each earthquake. The inferred rupture directions unambiguously identify the fault plane for the three earthquakes with strong directivity and for three of the four earthquakes with weak directivity. The events with strong directivity have fast rupture velocities (0.63????? v ??? 0.87??); the events with weak directivity either rupture more slowly (0.17????? v ???0.35??) or bilaterally. The simple unilateral inversion cannot distinguish between slow and bilateral ruptures: adding a bilateral rupture component degrades the fit of the rupture directions to the fault planes. By comparing PGAs from the events with strong and weak directivity, we show how an up-dip rupture in small events can distort the attenuation of peak ground motion with distance. When we compare the rupture directions of the earthquakes to the location of aftershocks in the two clusters, we find than almost all the aftershocks of the three earthquakes with strong directivity occur within 70?? of the direction of rupture.

  15. Identification of Deep Earthquakes

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-09-01

    discriminants that will reliably separate small, crustal earthquakes (magnitudes less than about 4 and depths less than about 40 to 50 km) from small...characteristics on discrimination plots designed to separate nuclear explosions from crustal earthquakes. Thus, reliably flagging these small, deep events is...Further, reliably identifying subcrustal earthquakes will allow us to eliminate deep events (previously misidentified as crustal earthquakes) from

  16. Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty seismic monitoring: 2012 USNAS report and recent explosions, earthquakes, and other seismic sources

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Richards, Paul G.

    A comprehensive ban on nuclear explosive testing is briefly characterized as an arms control initiative related to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The work of monitoring for nuclear explosions uses several technologies of which the most important is seismology-a physics discipline that draws upon extensive and ever-growing assets to monitor for earthquakes and other ground-motion phenomena as well as for explosions. This paper outlines the basic methods of seismic monitoring within that wider context, and lists web-based and other resources for learning details. It also summarizes the main conclusions, concerning capability to monitor for test-ban treaty compliance, contained in a major studymore » published in March 2012 by the US National Academy of Sciences.« less

  17. The 1985 central chile earthquake: a repeat of previous great earthquakes in the region?

    PubMed

    Comte, D; Eisenberg, A; Lorca, E; Pardo, M; Ponce, L; Saragoni, R; Singh, S K; Suárez, G

    1986-07-25

    A great earthquake (surface-wave magnitude, 7.8) occurred along the coast of central Chile on 3 March 1985, causing heavy damage to coastal towns. Intense foreshock activity near the epicenter of the main shock occurred for 11 days before the earthquake. The aftershocks of the 1985 earthquake define a rupture area of 170 by 110 square kilometers. The earthquake was forecast on the basis of the nearly constant repeat time (83 +/- 9 years) of great earthquakes in this region. An analysis of previous earthquakes suggests that the rupture lengths of great shocks in the region vary by a factor of about 3. The nearly constant repeat time and variable rupture lengths cannot be reconciled with time- or slip-predictable models of earthquake recurrence. The great earthquakes in the region seem to involve a variable rupture mode and yet, for unknown reasons, remain periodic. Historical data suggest that the region south of the 1985 rupture zone should now be considered a gap of high seismic potential that may rupture in a great earthquake in the next few tens of years.

  18. Long Period Earthquakes Beneath California's Young and Restless Volcanoes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pitt, A. M.; Dawson, P. B.; Shelly, D. R.; Hill, D. P.; Mangan, M.

    2013-12-01

    The newly established USGS California Volcano Observatory has the broad responsibility of monitoring and assessing hazards at California's potentially threatening volcanoes, most notably Mount Shasta, Medicine Lake, Clear Lake Volcanic Field, and Lassen Volcanic Center in northern California; and Long Valley Caldera, Mammoth Mountain, and Mono-Inyo Craters in east-central California. Volcanic eruptions occur in California about as frequently as the largest San Andreas Fault Zone earthquakes-more than ten eruptions have occurred in the last 1,000 years, most recently at Lassen Peak (1666 C.E. and 1914-1917 C.E.) and Mono-Inyo Craters (c. 1700 C.E.). The Long Valley region (Long Valley caldera and Mammoth Mountain) underwent several episodes of heightened unrest over the last three decades, including intense swarms of volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes, rapid caldera uplift, and hazardous CO2 emissions. Both Medicine Lake and Lassen are subsiding at appreciable rates, and along with Clear Lake, Long Valley Caldera, and Mammoth Mountain, sporadically experience long period (LP) earthquakes related to migration of magmatic or hydrothermal fluids. Worldwide, the last two decades have shown the importance of tracking LP earthquakes beneath young volcanic systems, as they often provide indication of impending unrest or eruption. Herein we document the occurrence of LP earthquakes at several of California's young volcanoes, updating a previous study published in Pitt et al., 2002, SRL. All events were detected and located using data from stations within the Northern California Seismic Network (NCSN). Event detection was spatially and temporally uneven across the NCSN in the 1980s and 1990s, but additional stations, adoption of the Earthworm processing system, and heightened vigilance by seismologists have improved the catalog over the last decade. LP earthquakes are now relatively well-recorded under Lassen (~150 events since 2000), Clear Lake (~60 events), Mammoth Mountain

  19. High-Dimensional Disorder-Driven Phenomena in Weyl Semimetals, Semiconductors, and Related Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Syzranov, Sergey V.; Radzihovsky, Leo

    2018-03-01

    It is commonly believed that a noninteracting disordered electronic system can undergo only the Anderson metal-insulator transition. It has been suggested, however, that a broad class of systems can display disorder-driven transitions distinct from Anderson localization that have manifestations in the disorder-averaged density of states, conductivity, and other observables. Such transitions have received particular attention in the context of recently discovered 3D Weyl and Dirac materials but have also been predicted in cold-atom systems with long-range interactions, quantum kicked rotors, and all sufficiently high-dimensional systems. Moreover, such systems exhibit unconventional behavior of Lifshitz tails, energy-level statistics, and ballistic-transport properties. Here, we review recent progress and the status of results on non-Anderson disorder-driven transitions and related phenomena.

  20. Earthquake Archaeology: a case study from Ancient Cnidus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stewart, I. S.; Altunel, E.; Piccardi, L.

    2003-04-01

    Ancient earthquakes can leave their mark in the mythical practices and literary accounts of ancient peoples, the stratigraphy of their site histories, and the structural integrity of their constructions. The ancient Greek/Roman city of Cnidus in southwestern Turkey records all three. A spectacular exposed fault plane cliff bordering the northern edge of the city appears to have been an important revered site, bearing votive niches carved into the near-vertical slip plane and associated with a Sanctuary of Demeter that implies a connection to the underworld. Stratigraphic evidence for earthquake faulting can be found in the form of a destruction horizon of contorted soil, relics and human remains exposed in the original excavations of the Sanctuary of Demeter by Sir Charles Newton (1857-58) and in a destruction horizon of burnt soil and bone uncovered by the ongoing excavation of a colonnaded street. Structural damage to constructions is widespread across the site, with warped and offset walls in the Sanctuary of Demeter, collapsed buildings in several places, and a parallel arrangement of fallen columns in the colonnaded street. The most remarkable structural evidence for fault activity, however, is the rupture of the ancient city's famous Round Temple of Aphrodite, whose podium reveals a history of damage and which is unambiguously displaced across a bedrock fault. While these phenomena are equivocal when viewed in isolation, collectively they imply at least two damaging earthquakes at the site, one (possibly both) of which ruptured along the fault on which the city is found. The Cnidus case study highlights how reliable identification of archaeoseismic damage relies on compiling an assemblage of indicators rather than the discovery of a diagnostic "smoking gun".

  1. 10.1142/9781911299660_fmatter years Laser Interaction and Related Plasma Phenomena (lirpp Vol. 13)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hora, Heinrich

    2016-10-01

    When these proceedings of 13th international conference LASER INTERACTION AND RELATED PLASMA PHENOMENA (LIRPP) will be circulated in 1998, it is just 30 years that this conference series began. Professor Miley asked me to present some thoughts at this occasion since I am involved from the beginning to 1991 a director and then as emeritus director. The conferences were in the following years 1969, 1971, 1973, 1976, 1979, 1982, 1985, 1987, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1995 and 1997 and reference to each of the conferences is simply given by the year in brackets...

  2. Geochemical variation of groundwater in the Abruzzi region: earthquakes related signals?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cardellini, C.; Chiodini, G.; Caliro, S.; Frondini, F.; Avino, R.; Minopoli, C.; Morgantini, N.

    2009-12-01

    The presence of a deep and inorganic source of CO2 has been recently recognized in Italy on the basis of the deeply derived carbon dissolved in the groundwater. In particular, the regional map of CO2 Earth degassing shows that two large degassing structures affect the Tyrrhenian side of the Italian peninsula. The northern degassing structure (TRDS, Tuscan Roman degassing structure) includes Tuscany, Latium and part of Umbria regions (~30000 km2) and releases > 6.1 Mt/y of deeply derived CO2. The southern degassing structure (CDS, Campanian degassing structure) affects the Campania region (~10000 km2) and releases > 3.1 Mt/y of deeply derived CO2. The total CO2 released by TRDS and CDS (> 9.2 Mt/y) is globally significant, being ~10% of the estimated present-day total CO2 discharge from sub aerial volcanoes of the Earth. The comparison between the map of CO2 Earth degassing and of the location of the Italian earthquakes highlights that the anomalous CO2 flux suddenly disappears in the Apennine in correspondence of a narrow band where most of the seismicity concentrates. A previous conceptual model proposed that in this area, at the eastern borders of TRDS and CDS plumes, the CO2 from the mantle wedge intrudes the crust and accumulate in structural traps generating over-pressurized reservoirs. These CO2 over-pressurized levels can play a major role in triggering the Apennine earthquakes, by reducing fault strength and potentially controlling the nucleation, arrest, and recurrence of both micro and major (M>5) earthquakes. The 2009 Abruzzo earthquakes, like previous seismic crises in the Northern Apennine, occurred at the border of the TRDS, suggesting also in this case a possible role played by deeply derived fluids in the earthquake generation. In order to investigate this process, detailed hydro-geochemical campaigns started immediately after the main shock of the 6th of April 2009. The surveys include the main springs of the area which were previously studied in

  3. Possible multihazard events (tsunamis, earthquakes, landslides) expected on the North Bulgarian Black sea coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ranguelov, B.; Gospodinopv, D.

    2009-04-01

    Earthquakes The area is famous with its seismic regime. The region usually shows non regular behavior of the strong events occurrence. There are episodes of activation and between them long periods of seismic quiescence. The most important one is at the I-st century BC when according to the chronicler Strabo, the ancient Greek colony "Bisone sank in the waters of the sea". The seismic source is known as Shabla-Kaliakra zone with the best documented seismic event of 31st March 1901. This event had a magnitude of 7.2 (estimated by the macroseismic transformation formula) with a source depth of about 10-20 km. The epicenter was located in the aquatory of the sea. The observed macroseismic intensity on the land reached the maximum value of X degree MSK. This event produced a number of secondary effects - landslides, rockfalls, subsidence, extensive destruction of the houses located around and tsunami (up to 3 meters height observed at Balchik port. This event is selected as referent one. Tsunamis Such earthquakes (magnitude greater then 7.0) almost always trigger tsunamis. They could be generated by the earthquake rupture process, or more frequently by the secondary triggered phenomena - landslides (submarine or surface) and/or other geodynamic phenomena - rock falls, degradation of gas hydrates, etc. the most famous water level change is described by Strabo - related to the great catastrophe. The area shows also some other expressions about tsunamis - the last one - a non seismic tsunami at 7th May, 2007 with maximum observed amplitudes of about 3 meters water level changes. Landslides The area on the north Bulgarian Black Sea coast is covered by many active landslides. They have different size, depth and activation time. Most of them are located near the coast line thus presenting huge danger about the beaches, tourist infrastructure, population and historical heritage. The most famous landslide (subsidence) is related with the I-st century BC seismic event, when a

  4. 88 hours: the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center response to the March 11, 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wald, David J.; Hayes, Gavin P.; Benz, Harley M.; Earle, Paul S.; Briggs, Richard W.

    2011-01-01

    The M 9.0 11 March 2011 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake and associated tsunami near the east coast of the island of Honshu caused tens of thousands of deaths and potentially over one trillion dollars in damage, resulting in one of the worst natural disasters ever recorded. The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (USGS NEIC), through its responsibility to respond to all significant global earthquakes as part of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, quickly produced and distributed a suite of earthquake information products to inform emergency responders, the public, the media, and the academic community of the earthquake's potential impact and to provide scientific background for the interpretation of the event's tectonic context and potential for future hazard. Here we present a timeline of the NEIC response to this devastating earthquake in the context of rapidly evolving information emanating from the global earthquake-response community. The timeline includes both internal and publicly distributed products, the relative timing of which highlights the inherent tradeoffs between the requirement to provide timely alerts and the necessity for accurate, authoritative information. The timeline also documents the iterative and evolutionary nature of the standard products produced by the NEIC and includes a behind-the-scenes look at the decisions, data, and analysis tools that drive our rapid product distribution.

  5. Specific variations of air temperature and relative humidity around the time of Michoacan earthquake M8.1 Sept. 19, 1985 as a possible indicator of interaction between tectonic plates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulinets, S. A.; Dunajecka, M. A.

    2007-02-01

    The recent development of the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere (LAI) coupling model and experimental data of remote sensing satellites on thermal anomalies before major strong earthquakes have demonstrated that radon emanations in the area of earthquake preparation can produce variations of the air temperature and relative humidity. Specific repeating pattern of humidity and air temperature variations was revealed as a result of analysis of the meteorological data for several tens of strong earthquakes all over the world. The main physical process responsible for the observed variations is the latent heat release due to water vapor condensation on ions produced as a result of air ionization by energetic α-particles emitted by 222Rn. The high effectiveness of this process was proved by the laboratory and field experiments; hence the specific variations of air humidity and temperature can be used as indicator of radon variations before earthquakes. We analyzed the historical meteorological data all over the Mexico around the time of one of the most destructive earthquakes (Michoacan earthquake M8.1) that affected the Mexico City on September 19, 1985. Several distinct zones of specific variations of the air temperature and relative humidity were revealed that may indicate the different character of radon variations in different parts of Mexico before the Michoacan earthquake. The most interesting result on the specific variations of atmosphere parameters was obtained at Baja California region close to the border of Cocos and Rivera tectonic plates. This result demonstrates the possibility of the increased radon variations not only in the vicinity of the earthquake source but also at the border of interacting tectonic plates. Recent results on Thermal InfraRed (TIR) anomalies registered by Meteosat 5 before the Gujarat earthquake M7.9 on 26 of January 2001 supports the idea on the possibility of thermal effects at the border of interacting tectonic plates.

  6. Crowdsourced earthquake early warning.

    PubMed

    Minson, Sarah E; Brooks, Benjamin A; Glennie, Craig L; Murray, Jessica R; Langbein, John O; Owen, Susan E; Heaton, Thomas H; Iannucci, Robert A; Hauser, Darren L

    2015-04-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an M w (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California's Hayward fault, and real data from the M w 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.

  7. Crowdsourced earthquake early warning

    PubMed Central

    Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.

    2015-01-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing. PMID:26601167

  8. Earthquakes, November-December 1992

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Person, W.J.

    1993-01-01

    There were two major earthquakes (7.0≤M<8.0) during the last two months of the year, a magntidue 7.5 earthquake on December 12 in the Flores region, Indonesia, and a magnitude 7.0 earthquake on December 20 in the Banda Sea. Earthquakes caused fatalities in China and Indonesia. The greatest number of deaths (2,500) for the year occurred in Indonesia. In Switzerland, six people were killed by an accidental explosion recoreded by seismographs. In teh United States, a magnitude 5.3 earthquake caused slight damage at Big Bear in southern California. 

  9. Crowdsourced earthquake early warning

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.

    2015-01-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.

  10. Crowd-Sourced Global Earthquake Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Owen, S. E.; Iannucci, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.

    2014-12-01

    Although earthquake early warning (EEW) has shown great promise for reducing loss of life and property, it has only been implemented in a few regions due, in part, to the prohibitive cost of building the required dense seismic and geodetic networks. However, many cars and consumer smartphones, tablets, laptops, and similar devices contain low-cost versions of the same sensors used for earthquake monitoring. If a workable EEW system could be implemented based on either crowd-sourced observations from consumer devices or very inexpensive networks of instruments built from consumer-quality sensors, EEW coverage could potentially be expanded worldwide. Controlled tests of several accelerometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers typically found in consumer devices show that, while they are significantly noisier than scientific-grade instruments, they are still accurate enough to capture displacements from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes. The accuracy of these sensors varies greatly depending on the type of data collected. Raw coarse acquisition (C/A) code GPS data are relatively noisy. These observations have a surface displacement detection threshold approaching ~1 m and would thus only be useful in large Mw 8+ earthquakes. However, incorporating either satellite-based differential corrections or using a Kalman filter to combine the raw GNSS data with low-cost acceleration data (such as from a smartphone) decreases the noise dramatically. These approaches allow detection thresholds as low as 5 cm, potentially enabling accurate warnings for earthquakes as small as Mw 6.5. Simulated performance tests show that, with data contributed from only a very small fraction of the population, a crowd-sourced EEW system would be capable of warning San Francisco and San Jose of a Mw 7 rupture on California's Hayward fault and could have accurately issued both earthquake and tsunami warnings for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.

  11. Limits on great earthquake size at subduction zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCaffrey, R.

    2012-12-01

    Subduction zones are where the world's greatest earthquakes occur due to the large fault area available to slip. Yet some subduction zones are thought to be immune from these massive events, where quake size is limited by some physical processes or properties. Accordingly, the size of the 2011 Tohoku-oki Mw 9.0 earthquake caught some in the earthquake research community by surprise. The expectations of these massive quakes have been driven in the past by reliance on our short, incomplete history of earthquakes and causal relationships derived from it. The logic applied is that if a great earthquake has not happened in the past, that we know of, one cannot happen in the future. Using the ~100-year global earthquake seismological history, and in some cases extended with geologic observations, relationships between maximum earthquake sizes and other properties of subduction zones are suggested, leading to the notion that some subduction zones, like the Japan Trench, would never produce a magnitude ~9 event. Empirical correlations of earthquake behavior with other subduction parameters can give false positive results when the data are incomplete or incorrect, of small numbers and numerous attributes are examined. Given multi-century return times of the greatest earthquakes, ignorance of those return times and our relatively limited temporal observation span (in most places), I suggest that we cannot yet rule out great earthquakes at any subduction zones. Alternatively, using the length of a subduction zone that is available for slip as the predominant factor in determining maximum earthquake size, we cannot rule out that any subduction zone of a few hundred kilometers or more in length may be capable of producing a magnitude 9 or larger earthquake. Based on this method, the expected maximum size for the Japan Trench was 9.0 (McCaffrey, Geology, p. 263, 2008). The same approach indicates that a M > 9 off Java, with twice the population density as Honshu and much lower

  12. Eighty phenomena about the self: representation, evaluation, regulation, and change

    PubMed Central

    Thagard, Paul; Wood, Joanne V.

    2015-01-01

    We propose a new approach for examining self-related aspects and phenomena. The approach includes (1) a taxonomy and (2) an emphasis on multiple levels of mechanisms. The taxonomy categorizes approximately eighty self-related phenomena according to three primary functions involving the self: representing, effecting, and changing. The representing self encompasses the ways in which people depict themselves, either to themselves or to others (e.g., self-concepts, self-presentation). The effecting self concerns ways in which people facilitate or limit their own traits and behaviors (e.g., self-enhancement, self-regulation). The changing self is less time-limited than the effecting self; it concerns phenomena that involve lasting alterations in how people represent and control themselves (e.g., self-expansion, self-development). Each self-related phenomenon within these three categories may be examined at four levels of interacting mechanisms (social, individual, neural, and molecular). We illustrate our approach by focusing on seven self-related phenomena. PMID:25870574

  13. Earthquake Clusters and Spatio-temporal Migration of earthquakes in Northeastern Tibetan Plateau: a Finite Element Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Y.; Luo, G.

    2017-12-01

    Seismicity in a region is usually characterized by earthquake clusters and earthquake migration along its major fault zones. However, we do not fully understand why and how earthquake clusters and spatio-temporal migration of earthquakes occur. The northeastern Tibetan Plateau is a good example for us to investigate these problems. In this study, we construct and use a three-dimensional viscoelastoplastic finite-element model to simulate earthquake cycles and spatio-temporal migration of earthquakes along major fault zones in northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We calculate stress evolution and fault interactions, and explore effects of topographic loading and viscosity of middle-lower crust and upper mantle on model results. Model results show that earthquakes and fault interactions increase Coulomb stress on the neighboring faults or segments, accelerating the future earthquakes in this region. Thus, earthquakes occur sequentially in a short time, leading to regional earthquake clusters. Through long-term evolution, stresses on some seismogenic faults, which are far apart, may almost simultaneously reach the critical state of fault failure, probably also leading to regional earthquake clusters and earthquake migration. Based on our model synthetic seismic catalog and paleoseismic data, we analyze probability of earthquake migration between major faults in northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We find that following the 1920 M 8.5 Haiyuan earthquake and the 1927 M 8.0 Gulang earthquake, the next big event (M≥7) in northeastern Tibetan Plateau would be most likely to occur on the Haiyuan fault.

  14. Pre-seismic geomagnetic and ionosphere signatures related to the Mw5.7 earthquake occurred in Vrancea zone on September 24, 2016

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stanica, Dragos Armand; Stanica, Dumitru; Błęcki, Jan; Ernst, Tomasz; Jóźwiak, Waldemar; Słomiński, Jan

    2018-02-01

    To emphasize the relationship between the pre-seismic geomagnetic signals and Vrancea seismicity, in this work it is hypothesized that before an earthquake initiation, the high stress reached into seismogenic volume generates dehydration of the rocks and fracturing processes followed by release of electric charges along the faulting systems, which lead to resistivity changes. These changes were explored on September 2016 by the normalized function Bzn obtained from the geomagnetic data recorded in ULF range (0.001-0.0083 Hz). A statistical analysis was also performed to discriminate on the new Bzn* time series a pre-seismic signature related to the Mw5.7 earthquake. Significant anomalous behavior of Bzn* was identified on September 21, with 3 days prior to the onset of the seismic event. Similar information is provided by registrations of the magnetic and electron concentration variations in the ionosphere over the Vrancea zone, by Swarm satellites, 4 days and 1 day before the earthquake.

  15. Rapid Earthquake Magnitude Estimation for Early Warning Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldberg, Dara; Bock, Yehuda; Melgar, Diego

    2017-04-01

    Earthquake magnitude is a concise metric that provides invaluable information about the destructive potential of a seismic event. Rapid estimation of magnitude for earthquake and tsunami early warning purposes requires reliance on near-field instrumentation. For large magnitude events, ground motions can exceed the dynamic range of near-field broadband seismic instrumentation (clipping). Strong motion accelerometers are designed with low gains to better capture strong shaking. Estimating earthquake magnitude rapidly from near-source strong-motion data requires integration of acceleration waveforms to displacement. However, integration amplifies small errors, creating unphysical drift that must be eliminated with a high pass filter. The loss of the long period information due to filtering is an impediment to magnitude estimation in real-time; the relation between ground motion measured with strong-motion instrumentation and magnitude saturates, leading to underestimation of earthquake magnitude. Using station displacements from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations, we can supplement the high frequency information recorded by traditional seismic systems with long-period observations to better inform rapid response. Unlike seismic-only instrumentation, ground motions measured with GNSS scale with magnitude without saturation [Crowell et al., 2013; Melgar et al., 2015]. We refine the current magnitude scaling relations using peak ground displacement (PGD) by adding a large GNSS dataset of earthquakes in Japan. Because it does not suffer from saturation, GNSS alone has significant advantages over seismic-only instrumentation for rapid magnitude estimation of large events. The earthquake's magnitude can be estimated within 2-3 minutes of earthquake onset time [Melgar et al., 2013]. We demonstrate that seismogeodesy, the optimal combination of GNSS and seismic data at collocated stations, provides the added benefit of improving the sensitivity of

  16. Research on response spectrum of dam based on scenario earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Xiaoliang; Zhang, Yushan

    2017-10-01

    Taking a large hydropower station as an example, the response spectrum based on scenario earthquake is determined. Firstly, the potential source of greatest contribution to the site is determined on the basis of the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Secondly, the magnitude and epicentral distance of the scenario earthquake are calculated according to the main faults and historical earthquake of the potential seismic source zone. Finally, the response spectrum of scenario earthquake is calculated using the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) relations. The response spectrum based on scenario earthquake method is less than the probability-consistent response spectrum obtained by PSHA method. The empirical analysis shows that the response spectrum of scenario earthquake considers the probability level and the structural factors, and combines the advantages of the deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methods. It is easy for people to accept and provide basis for seismic engineering of hydraulic engineering.

  17. Magnetic field observations in the near-field the 28 June 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnston, M.J.; Mueller, R.J.; Sasai, Yoichi

    1994-01-01

    Recent reports suggest that large magnetic field changes occur prior to, and during, large earthquakes. Two continuously operating proton magnetometers, LSBM and OCHM, at distances of 17.3 and 24.2 km, respectively, from the epicenter of the 28 June 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers earthquake, recorded data through the earthquake and its aftershocks. These two stations are part of a differentially connected array of proton magnetometers that has been operated along the San Andreas fault since 1976. The instruments have a sensitivity of 0.25 nT or better and transmit data every 10 min through the GOES satellite to the USGS headquarters in Menlo Park, California. Seismomagnetic offsets of −1.2 ± 0.6 and −0.7 ± 0.7 nT were observed at these sites. In comparison, offsets of −0.3 ± 0.2 and −1.3 ± 0.2 nT were observed during the 8 July 1986 ML 5.9 North Palm Springs earthquake, which occurred directly beneath the OCHM magnetometer site. The observations are generally consistent with seismomagnetic models of the earthquake, in which fault geometry and slip have the same from as that determined by either inversion of the seismic data or inversion of geodetically determined ground displacements produced by the earthquake. In these models, right-lateral rupture occurs on connected fault segments in a homogeneous medium with average magnetization of 2 A/m. The fault-slip distribution has roughly the same form as the observed surface rupture, and the total moment release is 1.1 × 1020 Nm. There is no indication of diffusion-like character to the magnetic field offsets that might indicate these effects result from fluid flow phenomena. It thus seems unlikely that these earthquake-generated offsets and those produced by the North Palm Springs earthquake were generated by electrokinetic effects. Also, there are no indications of enhanced low-frequency magnetic noise before the earthquake at frequencies below 0.001 Hz.

  18. Prototype operational earthquake prediction system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spall, Henry

    1986-01-01

    An objective if the U.S. Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 is to introduce into all regions of the country that are subject to large and moderate earthquakes, systems for predicting earthquakes and assessing earthquake risk. In 1985, the USGS developed for the Secretary of the Interior a program for implementation of a prototype operational earthquake prediction system in southern California.

  19. Temporal and spatial distributions of precursory seismicity rate changes in the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar border region: implication for upcoming hazardous earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Puangjaktha, Prayot; Pailoplee, Santi

    2018-01-01

    To study the prospective areas of upcoming strong-to-major earthquakes, i.e., M w ≥ 6.0, a catalog of seismicity in the vicinity of the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar border region was generated and then investigated statistically. Based on the successful investigations of previous works, the seismicity rate change (Z value) technique was applied in this study. According to the completeness earthquake dataset, eight available case studies of strong-to-major earthquakes were investigated retrospectively. After iterative tests of the characteristic parameters concerning the number of earthquakes ( N) and time window ( T w ), the values of 50 and 1.2 years, respectively, were found to reveal an anomalous high Z-value peak (seismic quiescence) prior to the occurrence of six out of the eight major earthquake events studied. In addition, the location of the Z-value anomalies conformed fairly well to the epicenters of those earthquakes. Based on the investigation of correlation coefficient and the stochastic test of the Z values, the parameters used here ( N = 50 events and T w = 1.2 years) were suitable to determine the precursory Z value and not random phenomena. The Z values of this study and the frequency-magnitude distribution b values of a previous work both highlighted the same prospective areas that might generate an upcoming major earthquake: (i) some areas in the northern part of Laos and (ii) the eastern part of Myanmar.

  20. Thermal Radiation Anomalies Associated with Major Earthquakes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ouzounov, Dimitar; Pulinets, Sergey; Kafatos, Menas C.; Taylor, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Recent developments of remote sensing methods for Earth satellite data analysis contribute to our understanding of earthquake related thermal anomalies. It was realized that the thermal heat fluxes over areas of earthquake preparation is a result of air ionization by radon (and other gases) and consequent water vapor condensation on newly formed ions. Latent heat (LH) is released as a result of this process and leads to the formation of local thermal radiation anomalies (TRA) known as OLR (outgoing Longwave radiation, Ouzounov et al, 2007). We compare the LH energy, obtained by integrating surface latent heat flux (SLHF) over the area and time with released energies associated with these events. Extended studies of the TRA using the data from the most recent major earthquakes allowed establishing the main morphological features. It was also established that the TRA are the part of more complex chain of the short-term pre-earthquake generation, which is explained within the framework of a lithosphere-atmosphere coupling processes.