Algermissen, S.T.; Hays, Walter W.; Krumpe, Paul R.
Considerable progress has been made in the Worldwide Earthquake Risk Management (WWERM) Program since its initiation in late 1989 as a cooperative program of the Agency for International Development (AID), Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA), and the U.S. Geological Survey. Probabilistic peak acceleration and peak Modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) maps have been prepared for Chile and for Sulawesi province in Indonesia. Earthquake risk (loss) studies for dwellings in Gorontalo, North Sulawesi, have been completed and risk studies for dwellings in selected areas of central Chile are underway. A special study of the effect of site response on earthquake ground motion estimation in central Chile has also been completed and indicates that site response may modify the ground shaking by as much as plus or minus two units of MMI. A program for the development of national probabilistic ground motion maps for the Philippines is now underway and pilot studies of earthquake ground motion and risk are being planned for Morocco.
Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith
We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.
Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.
Earthquake forecasts have been computed by a variety of countries and economies world-wide for over two decades. For the most part, forecasts have been computed for insurance, reinsurance and underwriters of catastrophe bonds. One example is the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities that has been responsible for the official California earthquake forecast since 1988. However, in a time of increasingly severe global financial constraints, we are now moving inexorably towards personal risk management, wherein mitigating risk is becoming the responsibility of individual members of the public. Under these circumstances, open access to a variety of web-based tools, utilities and information is a necessity. Here we describe a web-based system that has been operational since 2009 at www.openhazards.com and www.quakesim.org. Models for earthquake physics and forecasting require input data, along with model parameters. The models we consider are the Natural Time Weibull (NTW) model for regional earthquake forecasting, together with models for activation and quiescence. These models use small earthquakes ('seismicity-based models") to forecast the occurrence of large earthquakes, either through varying rates of small earthquake activity, or via an accumulation of this activity over time. These approaches use data-mining algorithms combined with the ANSS earthquake catalog. The basic idea is to compute large earthquake probabilities using the number of small earthquakes that have occurred in a region since the last large earthquake. Each of these approaches has computational challenges associated with computing forecast information in real time. Using 25 years of data from the ANSS California-Nevada catalog of earthquakes, we show that real-time forecasting is possible at a grid scale of 0.1o. We have analyzed the performance of these models using Reliability/Attributes and standard Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) tests. We show how the Reliability and
Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan
The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety
Jaiswal, K.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.
We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat's demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.
The greatest and most rapidly growing earthquake risk for mortality is in developing countries. Further, earthquake risk management actions of the last 50 years have reduced the average lethality of earthquakes in earthquake-threatened industrialized countries. (This is separate from the trend of the increasing fiscal cost of earthquakes there.) Despite these clear trends, every new earthquake in developing countries is described in the media as a "wake up" call, announcing the risk these countries face. GeoHazards International (GHI) works at both the community and the policy levels to try to reduce earthquake risk. GHI reduces death and injury by helping vulnerable communities recognize their risk and the methods to manage it, by raising awareness of its risk, building local institutions to manage that risk, and strengthening schools to protect and train the community's future generations. At the policy level, GHI, in collaboration with research partners, is examining whether "acceptance" of these large risks by people in these countries and by international aid and development organizations explains the lack of activity in reducing these risks. The goal of this pilot project - The Global Earthquake Safety Initiative (GESI) - is to develop and evaluate a means of measuring the risk and the effectiveness of risk mitigation actions in the world's largest, most vulnerable cities: in short, to develop an earthquake risk index. One application of this index is to compare the risk and the risk mitigation effort of "comparable" cities. By this means, Lima, for example, can compare the risk of its citizens dying due to earthquakes with the risk of citizens in Santiago and Guayaquil. The authorities of Delhi and Islamabad can compare the relative risk from earthquakes of their school children. This index can be used to measure the effectiveness of alternate mitigation projects, to set goals for mitigation projects, and to plot progress meeting those goals. The preliminary
Rundle, J. B.
Earthquakes and financial markets share surprising similarities . For example, the well-known VIX index, which by definition is the implied volatility of the Standard and Poors 500 index, behaves in very similar quantitative fashion to time series for earthquake rates. Both display sudden increases at the time of an earthquake or an announcement of the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee , and both decay as an inverse power of time. Both can be regarded as examples of first order phase transitions , and display fractal and scaling behavior associated with critical transitions, such as power-law magnitude-frequency relations in the tails of the distributions. Early quantitative investors such as Edward Thorpe and John Kelly invented novel methods to mitigate or manage risk in games of chance such as blackjack, and in markets using hedging techniques that are still in widespread use today. The basic idea is the concept of proportional betting, where the gambler/investor bets a fraction of the bankroll whose size is determined by the "edge" or inside knowledge of the real (and changing) odds. For earthquake systems, the "edge" over nature can only exist in the form of a forecast (probability of a future earthquake); a nowcast (knowledge of the current state of an earthquake fault system); or a timecast (statistical estimate of the waiting time until the next major earthquake). In our terminology, a forecast is a model, while the nowcast and timecast are analysis methods using observed data only (no model). We also focus on defined geographic areas rather than on faults, thereby eliminating the need to consider specific fault data or fault interactions. Data used are online earthquake catalogs, generally since 1980. Forecasts are based on the Weibull (1952) probability law, and only a handful of parameters are needed. These methods allow the development of real time hazard and risk estimation using cloud-based technologies, and permit the application of
Ohira, Tetsuya; Hosoya, Mitsuaki; Yasumura, Seiji; Satoh, Hiroaki; Suzuki, Hitoshi; Sakai, Akira; Ohtsuru, Akira; Kawasaki, Yukihiko; Takahashi, Atsushi; Ozasa, Kotaro; Kobashi, Gen; Hashimoto, Shigeatsu; Kamiya, Kenji; Yamashita, Shunichi; Abe, Masafumi
On March 11, 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred in Japan, with a nuclear accident subsequently occurring at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. The disaster forced many evacuees to change particular aspects of their lifestyles. This study assessed the hypothesis that evacuation may have increased the risk of hypertension among residents in Fukushima. A longitudinal study examined data collected from 31 252 Japanese participants aged 40 to 74 years sourced from general health checkups conducted in 13 communities between 2008 and 2010. Follow-up examinations were conducted from 2011 through 2013. A total of 21 989 participants (follow-up proportion, 70.4%) received follow-up examinations. Mean blood pressure significantly increased in both evacuees and nonevacuees after the disaster, with greater changes in blood pressure among the former. The changes in systolic and diastolic blood pressure among the evacuees and nonevacuees were +5.8/3.4 versus +4.6/2.1 mm Hg (P<0.01/P<0.0001) for men and +4.4/2.8 versus +4.1/1.7 mm Hg (P=0.33/P<0.0001) for women, respectively. Evacuation was associated with an increased risk of hypertension among men, and the age-adjusted hazard ratios of evacuation for incidence of hypertension were 1.24 (95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.39; P<0.001) for men and 1.05 (95% confidence interval, 0.94-1.17; P=0.37) for women, respectively. For men, after adjustment for confounding variables, the hazard ratio slightly decreased to 1.20, but the association was essentially unchanged. Blood pressure increased among residents, especially evacuees, in the evacuation zone of Fukushima prefecture after the Great East Japan Earthquake. Evacuation may be associated with an increased risk of hypertension among men in the 2 years after the disaster. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.
Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Donnellan, A.; Graves, W.; Tiampo, K. F.; Klein, W.
Risks from natural and financial catastrophes are currently managed by a combination of large public and private institutions. Public institutions usually are comprised of government agencies that conduct studies, formulate policies and guidelines, enforce regulations, and make “official” forecasts. Private institutions include insurance and reinsurance companies, and financial service companies that underwrite catastrophe (“cat”) bonds, and make private forecasts. Although decisions about allocating resources and developing solutions are made by large institutions, the costs of dealing with catastrophes generally fall for the most part on businesses and the general public. Information on potential risks is generally available to the public for some hazards but not others. For example, in the case of weather, private forecast services are provided by www.weather.com and www.wunderground.com. For earthquakes in California (only), the official forecast is the WGCEP-USGS forecast, but provided in a format that is difficult for the public to use. Other privately made forecasts are currently available, for example by the JPL QuakeSim and Russian groups, but these efforts are limited. As more of the world’s population moves increasingly into major seismic zones, new strategies are needed to allow individuals to manage their personal risk from large and damaging earthquakes. Examples include individual mitigation measures such as retrofitting, as well as microinsurance in both developing and developed countries, as well as other financial strategies. We argue that the “long tail” of the internet offers an ideal, and greatly underutilized mechanism to reach out to consumers and to provide them with the information and tools they need to confront and manage seismic hazard and risk on an individual, personalized basis. Information of this type includes not only global hazard forecasts, which are now possible, but also global risk estimation. Additionally
Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.
Earthquakes have claimed approximately 8 million lives over the last 2,000 years (Dunbar, Lockridge and others, 1992) and fatality rates are likely to continue to rise with increased population and urbanizations of global settlements especially in developing countries. More than 75% of earthquake-related human casualties are caused by the collapse of buildings or structures (Coburn and Spence, 2002). It is disheartening to note that large fractions of the world's population still reside in informal, poorly-constructed & non-engineered dwellings which have high susceptibility to collapse during earthquakes. Moreover, with increasing urbanization half of world's population now lives in urban areas (United Nations, 2001), and half of these urban centers are located in earthquake-prone regions (Bilham, 2004). The poor performance of most building stocks during earthquakes remains a primary societal concern. However, despite this dark history and bleaker future trends, there are no comprehensive global building inventories of sufficient quality and coverage to adequately address and characterize future earthquake losses. Such an inventory is vital both for earthquake loss mitigation and for earthquake disaster response purposes. While the latter purpose is the motivation of this work, we hope that the global building inventory database described herein will find widespread use for other mitigation efforts as well. For a real-time earthquake impact alert system, such as U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER), (Wald, Earle and others, 2006), we seek to rapidly evaluate potential casualties associated with earthquake ground shaking for any region of the world. The casualty estimation is based primarily on (1) rapid estimation of the ground shaking hazard, (2) aggregating the population exposure within different building types, and (3) estimating the casualties from the collapse of vulnerable buildings. Thus, the
The paper aims at proposing some considerations about some recent experiences of research carried out on the theme of earthquake risk mitigation and combining policies and actions of mitigation with urban development strategies. The objective was to go beyond the classical methodological approach aiming at defining a "technical" evaluation of the earthquake risk through a procedure which can correlate the three "components" of danger, exposure and vulnerability. These researches experiment, in terms of methodology and application, with a new category of interpretation and strategy: the so-called Struttura Urbana Minima (Minimum urban structure). Actually, the introduction of the Struttura Urbana Minima establishes a different approach towards the theme of safety in the field of earthquake risk, since it leads to a wider viewpoint, combining the building aspect of the issue with the purely urban one, involving not only town planning, but also social and managerial implications. In this sense the constituent logic of these researches is strengthened by two fundamental issues: - The social awareness of earthquake; - The inclusion of mitigation policies in the ordinary strategies for town and territory management. Three main aspects of the first point, that is of the "social awareness of earthquake", characterize this issue and demand to be considered within a prevention policy: - The central role of the risk as a social production, - The central role of the local community consent, - The central role of the local community capability to plan Therefore, consent, considered not only as acceptance, but above all as participation in the elaboration and implementation of choices, plays a crucial role in the wider issue of prevention policies. As far as the second point is concerned, the inclusion of preventive mitigation policies in ordinary strategies for the town and territory management demands the identification of criteria of choice and priorities of intervention and
Black Porto, N.; Nyst, M.
Alaska is one of the most seismically active and tectonically diverse regions in the United States. To examine risk, we have updated the seismic hazard model in Alaska. The current RMS Alaska hazard model is based on the 2007 probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Alaska (Wesson et al., 2007; Boyd et al., 2007). The 2015 RMS model will update several key source parameters, including: extending the earthquake catalog, implementing a new set of crustal faults, updating the subduction zone geometry and reoccurrence rate. First, we extend the earthquake catalog to 2013; decluster the catalog, and compute new background rates. We then create a crustal fault model, based on the Alaska 2012 fault and fold database. This new model increased the number of crustal faults from ten in 2007, to 91 faults in the 2015 model. This includes the addition of: the western Denali, Cook Inlet folds near Anchorage, and thrust faults near Fairbanks. Previously the subduction zone was modeled at a uniform depth. In this update, we model the intraslab as a series of deep stepping events. We also use the best available data, such as Slab 1.0, to update the geometry of the subduction zone. The city of Anchorage represents 80% of the risk exposure in Alaska. In the 2007 model, the hazard in Alaska was dominated by the frequent rate of magnitude 7 to 8 events (Gutenberg-Richter distribution), and large magnitude 8+ events had a low reoccurrence rate (Characteristic) and therefore didn't contribute as highly to the overall risk. We will review these reoccurrence rates, and will present the results and impact to Anchorage. We will compare our hazard update to the 2007 USGS hazard map, and discuss the changes and drivers for these changes. Finally, we will examine the impact model changes have on Alaska earthquake risk. Consider risk metrics include average annual loss, an annualized expected loss level used by insurers to determine the costs of earthquake insurance (and premium levels), and the
Apel, E. V.; Nyst, M.; Fitzenz, D. D.; Molas, G.
To quantify risk in New Zealand we examine the impact of updating the seismic hazard model. The previous RMS New Zealand hazard model is based on the 2002 probabilistic seismic hazard maps for New Zealand (Stirling et al., 2002). The 2015 RMS model, based on Stirling et al., (2012) will update several key source parameters. These updates include: implementation a new set of crustal faults including multi-segment ruptures, updating the subduction zone geometry and reccurrence rate and implementing new background rates and a robust methodology for modeling background earthquake sources. The number of crustal faults has increased by over 200 from the 2002 model, to the 2012 model which now includes over 500 individual fault sources. This includes the additions of many offshore faults in northern, east-central, and southwest regions. We also use the recent data to update the source geometry of the Hikurangi subduction zone (Wallace, 2009; Williams et al., 2013). We compare hazard changes in our updated model with those from the previous version. Changes between the two maps are discussed as well as the drivers for these changes. We examine the impact the hazard model changes have on New Zealand earthquake risk. Considered risk metrics include average annual loss, an annualized expected loss level used by insurers to determine the costs of earthquake insurance (and premium levels), and the loss exceedance probability curve used by insurers to address their solvency and manage their portfolio risk. We analyze risk profile changes in areas with large population density and for structures of economic and financial importance. New Zealand is interesting in that the city with the majority of the risk exposure in the country (Auckland) lies in the region of lowest hazard, where we don't have a lot of information about the location of faults and distributed seismicity is modeled by averaged Mw-frequency relationships on area sources. Thus small changes to the background rates
Badawy, Ahmed; Gaber, Hanan; Ibrahim, Hamza
Throughout historical and recent times, Alexandria has suffered great damage due to earthquakes from both near- and far-field sources. Sometimes, the sources of such damages are not well known. During the twentieth century, the city was shaken by several earthquakes generated from inland dislocations (e.g., 29 Apr. 1974, 12 Oct. 1992, and 28 Dec. 1999) and the African continental margin (e.g., 12 Sept. 1955 and 28 May 1998). Therefore, this study estimates the earthquake ground shaking and the consequent impacts in Alexandria on the basis of two earthquake scenarios. The simulation results show that Alexandria affected by both earthquakes scenarios relatively in the same manner despite the number of casualties during the first scenario (inland dislocation) is twice larger than the second one (African continental margin). An expected percentage of 2.27 from Alexandria's total constructions (12.9 millions, 2006 Census) will be affected, 0.19 % injuries and 0.01 % deaths of the total population (4.1 millions, 2006 Census) estimated by running the first scenario. The earthquake risk profile reveals that three districts (Al-Montazah, Al-Amriya, and Shark) lie in high seismic risks, two districts (Gharb and Wasat) are in moderate, and two districts (Al-Gomrok and Burg El-Arab) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Al-Montazah is the highest vulnerable district whereas 73 % of expected damages were reported there. The undertaken analysis shows that the Alexandria urban area faces high risk. Informal areas and deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated earthquake risks (buildings damages) are concentrated at the most densely populated (Al-Montazah, Al-Amriya, and Shark) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts.
Hirata, N.; Sakai, S.; Kasahara, K.; Nakagawa, S.; Nanjo, K.; Panayotopoulos, Y.; Tsuruoka, H.
Seismic disaster risk mitigation in urban areas constitutes a challenge through collaboration of scientific, engineering, and social-science fields. Examples of collaborative efforts include research on detailed plate structure with identification of all significant faults, developing dense seismic networks; strong ground motion prediction, which uses information on near-surface seismic site effects and fault models; earthquake resistant and proof structures; and cross-discipline infrastructure for effective risk mitigation just after catastrophic events. Risk mitigation strategy for the next greater earthquake caused by the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducting beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area is of major concern because it caused past mega-thrust earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (magnitude M8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M7.9) which had 105,000 fatalities. A M7 or greater (M7+) earthquake in this area at present has high potential to produce devastating loss of life and property with even greater global economic repercussions. The Central Disaster Management Council of Japan estimates that the M7+ earthquake will cause 11,000 fatalities and 112 trillion yen (about 1 trillion US$) economic loss. This earthquake is evaluated to occur with a probability of 70% in 30 years by the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan. In order to mitigate disaster for greater Tokyo, the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (2007-2011) was launched in collaboration with scientists, engineers, and social-scientists in nationwide institutions. The results that are obtained in the respective fields will be integrated until project termination to improve information on the strategy assessment for seismic risk mitigation in the Tokyo metropolitan area. In this talk, we give an outline of our project as an example of collaborative research on earthquake risk mitigation. Discussion is extended to our effort in progress and
Randal, L. Nathan
This chapter of "Principles of School Business Management" presents an overview of risk management for school districts. The chapter first discusses four fundamental elements of risk management: (1) identifying and measuring risks; (2) reducing or eliminating risks; (3) transferring unassumable risks; and (4) assuming remaining risks.…
actively attack the risks, they will actively attack you.” -Tom Gib Why do Risk Management? 8 “The first step in the risk management process is to...opportunities to manage and improve our chances of success. - Roger Vanscoy “If you do not actively attack the risks, they will actively attack ...our risks provides opportunities to manage and improve our chances of success. - Roger Vanscoy “If you do not actively attack the risks, they will
Every year natural disasters, such as fires, floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, landslides, tsunami, and tornadoes, challenge various communities of the world. Earthquakes strike with varying degrees of severity and pose both short- and long-term challenges to public service providers. Earthquakes generate shock waves and displace the ground along fault lines. These seismic forces can bring down buildings and bridges in a localized area and damage buildings and other structures in a far wider area. Secondary damage from fires, explosions, and localized flooding from broken water pipes can increase the amount of debris. Earthquake debris includes building materials, personal property, and sediment from landslides. The management of this debris, as well as the waste generated during the reconstruction works, can place significant challenges on the national and local capacities. Debris removal is a major component of every post earthquake recovery operation. Much of the debris generated from earthquake is not hazardous. Soil, building material, and green waste, such as trees and shrubs, make up most of the volume of earthquake debris. These wastes not only create significant health problems and a very unpleasant living environment if not disposed of safely and appropriately, but also can subsequently impose economical burdens on the reconstruction phase. In practice, most of the debris may be either disposed of at landfill sites, reused as materials for construction or recycled into useful commodities Therefore, the debris clearance operation should focus on the geotechnical engineering approach as an important post earthquake issue to control the quality of the incoming flow of potential soil materials. In this paper, the importance of an emergency management perspective in this geotechnical approach that takes into account the different criteria related to the operation execution is proposed by highlighting the key issues concerning the handling of the construction
Every year natural disasters, such as fires, floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, landslides, tsunami, and tornadoes, challenge various communities of the world. Earthquakes strike with varying degrees of severity and pose both short- and long-term challenges to public service providers. Earthquakes generate shock waves and displace the ground along fault lines. These seismic forces can bring down buildings and bridges in a localized area and damage buildings and other structures in a far wider area. Secondary damage from fires, explosions, and localized flooding from broken water pipes can increase the amount of debris. Earthquake debris includes building materials, personal property, and sediment from landslides. The management of this debris, as well as the waste generated during the reconstruction works, can place significant challenges on the national and local capacities. Debris removal is a major component of every post earthquake recovery operation. Much of the debris generated from earthquake is not hazardous. Soil, building material, and green waste, such as trees and shrubs, make up most of the volume of earthquake debris. These wastes not only create significant health problems and a very unpleasant living environment if not disposed of safely and appropriately, but also can subsequently impose economical burdens on the reconstruction phase. In practice, most of the debris may be either disposed of at landfill sites, reused as materials for construction or recycled into useful commodities Therefore, the debris clearance operation should focus on the geotechnical engineering approach as an important post earthquake issue to control the quality of the incoming flow of potential soil materials. In this paper, the importance of an emergency management perspective in this geotechnical approach that takes into account the different criteria related to the operation execution is proposed by highlighting the key issues concerning the handling of the construction
Tucker, B. E.
The seventeen-year-and-counting history of the Palo Alto-based nonprofit organization GeoHazards International (GHI) is the story of many initiatives within a larger initiative to increase the societal impact of geophysics and civil engineering. GHI's mission is to reduce death and suffering due to earthquakes and other natural hazards in the world's most vulnerable communities through preparedness, mitigation and advocacy. GHI works by raising awareness in these communities about their risk and about affordable methods to manage it, identifying and strengthening institutions in these communities to manage their risk, and advocating improvement in natural disaster management. Some of GHI's successful initiatives include: (1) creating an earthquake scenario for Quito, Ecuador that describes in lay terms the consequences for that city of a probable earthquake; (2) improving the curricula of Pakistani university courses about seismic retrofitting; (3) training employees of the Public Works Department of Delhi, India on assessing the seismic vulnerability of critical facilities such as a school, a hospital, a police headquarters, and city hall; (4) assessing the vulnerability of the Library of Tibetan Works and Archives in Dharamsala, India; (5) developing a seismic hazard reduction plan for a nonprofit organization in Kathmandu, Nepal that works to manage Nepal's seismic risk; and (6) assisting in the formulation of a resolution by the Council of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to promote school earthquake safety among OECD member countries. GHI's most important resource, in addition to its staff and Board of Trustees, is its members and volunteer advisors, who include some of the world's leading earth scientists, earthquake engineers, urban planners and architects, from the academic, public, private and nonprofit sectors. GHI is planning several exciting initiatives in the near future. One would oversee the design and construction of
Arnold, Christopher; Lyons, Jack; Munger, James; Quinn, Rebecca C.; Smith, Thomas L.
This manual is intended to provide guidance for the protection of school buildings and their occupants from natural disasters, and the economic losses and social disruption caused by building damage and destruction. This volume concentrates on grade schools, K-12. This publication covers earthquakes, floods, and high winds. Its intended audience…
The first Workshop of Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER1) was held in Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan from February 23 to 24, 2012. The workshop focused on the formulation of strategies to reduce the risks of disasters worldwide caused by the occurrence of earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. More than 150 participants attended the workshop. During the workshop, the G-EVER1 accord was approved by the participants. The Accord consists of 10 recommendations like enhancing collaboration, sharing of resources, and making information about the risks of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions freely available and understandable. The G-EVER Hub website (http://g-ever.org) was established to promote the exchange of information and knowledge among the Asia-Pacific countries. Several G-EVER Working Groups and Task Forces were proposed. One of the working groups was tasked to make the next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system. The next-generation volcano hazard assessment system is useful for volcanic eruption prediction, risk assessment, and evacuation at various eruption stages. The assessment system is planned to be developed based on volcanic eruption scenario datasets, volcanic eruption database, and numerical simulations. Defining volcanic eruption scenarios based on precursor phenomena leading up to major eruptions of active volcanoes is quite important for the future prediction of volcanic eruptions. Compiling volcanic eruption scenarios after a major eruption is also important. A high quality volcanic eruption database, which contains compilations of eruption dates, volumes, and styles, is important for the next-generation volcano hazard assessment system. The volcanic eruption database is developed based on past eruption results, which only represent a subset of possible future scenarios. Hence, different distributions from the previous deposits are mainly observed due to the differences in
Global Seismic Network (GSN). The GSN is a system of broadband digital seismographs arrayed around the globe and designed to collect high-quality...39 states face some risk from earthquakes. Seismic hazards are greatest in the western United States, particularly California, Alaska, Washington...Oregon, and Hawaii. The Rocky Mountain region, a portion of the central United States known as the New Madrid Seismic Zone, and portions of the eastern
Chambers, David W
Every plan contains risk. To proceed without planning some means of managing that risk is to court failure. The basic logic of risk is explained. It consists in identifying a threshold where some corrective action is necessary, the probability of exceeding that threshold, and the attendant cost should the undesired outcome occur. This is the probable cost of failure. Various risk categories in dentistry are identified, including lack of liquidity; poor quality; equipment or procedure failures; employee slips; competitive environments; new regulations; unreliable suppliers, partners, and patients; and threats to one's reputation. It is prudent to make investments in risk management to the extent that the cost of managing the risk is less than the probable loss due to risk failure and when risk management strategies can be matched to type of risk. Four risk management strategies are discussed: insurance, reducing the probability of failure, reducing the costs of failure, and learning. A risk management accounting of the financial meltdown of October 2008 is provided.
Kung, Yi-Wen; Chen, Sue-Huei
This study explored how individuals in Taiwan perceive the risk of earthquake and the relationship of past earthquake experience and gender to risk perception. Participants (n= 1,405), including earthquake survivors and those in the general population without prior direct earthquake exposure, were selected and interviewed through a computer-assisted telephone interviewing procedure using a random sampling and stratification method covering all 24 regions of Taiwan. A factor analysis of the interview data yielded a two-factor structure of risk perception in regard to earthquake. The first factor, "personal impact," encompassed perception of threat and fear related to earthquakes. The second factor, "controllability," encompassed a sense of efficacy of self-protection in regard to earthquakes. The findings indicated prior earthquake survivors and females reported higher scores on the personal impact factor than males and those with no prior direct earthquake experience, although there were no group differences on the controllability factor. The findings support that risk perception has multiple components, and suggest that past experience (survivor status) and gender (female) affect the perception of risk. Exploration of potential contributions of other demographic factors such as age, education, and marital status to personal impact, especially for females and survivors, is discussed. Future research on and intervention program with regard to risk perception are suggested accordingly. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.
Celsi, R.; Wolfinbarger, M.; Wald, D.
The purpose of this research is to explore earthquake risk perceptions in California. Specifically, we examine the risk beliefs, feelings, and experiences of lay, professional, and expert individuals to explore how risk is perceived and how risk perceptions are formed relative to earthquakes. Our results indicate that individuals tend to perceptually underestimate the degree that earthquake (EQ) events may affect them. This occurs in large part because individuals' personal felt experience of EQ events are generally overestimated relative to experienced magnitudes. An important finding is that individuals engage in a process of "cognitive anchoring" of their felt EQ experience towards the reported earthquake magnitude size. The anchoring effect is moderated by the degree that individuals comprehend EQ magnitude measurement and EQ attenuation. Overall, the results of this research provide us with a deeper understanding of EQ risk perceptions, especially as they relate to individuals' understanding of EQ measurement and attenuation concepts. ?? 2005, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.
Suneja, Amit; Gakh, Maxim; Rutkow, Lainie
This integrative review examines extant literature assessing the burden and management of noncommunicable diseases 6 months or more after earthquakes and tsunamis. We conducted an integrative review to identify and characterize the strength of published studies about noncommunicable disease-specific outcomes and interventions at least 6 months after an earthquake and/or tsunami. We included disasters that occurred from 2004 to 2016. We focused primarily on the World Health Organization noncommunicable disease designations to define chronic disease, but we also included chronic renal disease, risk factors for noncommunicable diseases, and other chronic diseases or symptoms. After removing duplicates, our search yielded 6,188 articles. Twenty-five articles met our inclusion criteria, some discussing multiple noncommunicable diseases. Results demonstrate that existing medical conditions may worsen and subsequently improve, new diseases may develop, and risk factors, such as weight and cholesterol levels, may increase for several years after an earthquake and/or tsunami. We make 3 recommendations for practitioners and researchers: (1) plan for noncommunicable disease management further into the recovery period of disaster; (2) increase research on the burden of noncommunicable diseases, the treatment modalities employed, resulting population-level outcomes in the postdisaster setting, and existing models to improve stakeholder coordination and action regarding noncommunicable diseases after disasters; and (3) coordinate with preexisting provision networks, especially primary care.
Continuing efforts under the auspices of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program are under way to improve earthquake risk assessment and risk management in earthquake-prone regions of Alaska, California, Nevada, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho, the New Madrid and Wabash Valley seismic zones in the central United States, the southeastern and northeastern United States, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Guam, and Hawaii. Geologists, geophysicists, seismologists, architects, engineers, urban planners, emergency managers, health care specialists, and policymakers are having to work at the margins of their disciplines to bridge the gap between research and practice and to provide a social, technical, administrative, political, legal, and economic basis for changing public policies and professional practices in communities where the earthquake risk is unacceptable. ?? 1998 IEEE.
The Municipality of Bucharest is one of the capitals with the highest seismic risk in the world. Bucharest is particularly vulnerable to seismic hazard due to: the high density of inhabitants, especially within the residential districts with blocks of flats; the old public utility fund; the out-of-date infrastructure; the numerous industrial parks that are undergoing a restructuring process, not to mention the inefficient organization of civil protection and poor education of the population regarding seismic risk. This research was designed to examine the attitudes and perceptions of people living with the risk of an earthquake hazard in Bucharest. We were interested in how attitudes and perceptions differ depending on gender, age, education, residential area and socioeconomic status, characteristics of seismic hazard, degree of risk exposure, degree of danger, and casualty awareness. At the same time, we compare the results of this study with those from a previous and similar enquiry in 1997. The statistical processing has indicated a significant difference between the declared perception of seismic risk and the independent variables of gender, age, level of education, level of attachment to the residential area, and degree to which the subjects consider they may be affected and could retrieve their losses. Due to the continuous decrease of their living standard, the most vulnerable is the aged population. The feelings toward the residential area is another factor of statistical significance for the population's seismic danger perception. A strong affective bond offers a feeling of safety and leads to the neglect and even total denial of the hazard. In the case of independent variables regarding the type of dwelling, its age, and property form, deviations of empiric values from the theoretical distribution are not relevant for the correlation searched for, which indicates that this issue goes beyond the above-mentioned criteria.
... Search Term(s): Main Content Home Be Informed Earthquakes Earthquakes An earthquake is the sudden, rapid shaking of the earth, ... by the breaking and shifting of underground rock. Earthquakes can cause buildings to collapse and cause heavy ...
Klose, C. D.
The awareness of natural hazards has been up-trending in recent years. In particular, this is true for earthquakes, which increase in frequency and magnitude in regions that normally do not experience seismic activity. In fact, one of the major concerns for many communities and businesses is that humans today seem to cause earthquakes due to large-scale shale gas production, dewatering and flooding of mines and deep geothermal power production. Accordingly, without opposing any of these technologies it should be a priority of earth scientists who are researching natural hazards to communicate earthquake risks. This presentation discusses the challenges that earth scientists are facing to properly communicate earthquake risks, in light of the fact that human-caused earthquakes are an environmental change affecting only some communities and businesses. Communication channels may range from research papers, books and class room lectures to outreach events and programs, popular media events or even social media networks.
Klose, C. D.
The seismological community invests ample human capital and financial resources to research and predict risks associated with earthquakes. Industries such as the insurance and re-insurance sector are equally interested in using probabilistic risk models developed by the scientific community to transfer risks. These models are used to predict expected losses due to naturally occurring earthquakes. But what about the risks associated with human-caused earthquakes? Such risk models are largely absent from both industry and academic discourse. In countries around the world, informed citizens are becoming increasingly aware and concerned that this economic bias is not sustainable for long-term economic growth, environmental and human security. Ultimately, citizens look to their government officials to hold industry accountable. In the Netherlands, for example, the hydrocarbon industry is held accountable for causing earthquakes near Groningen. In Switzerland, geothermal power plants were shut down or suspended because they caused earthquakes in canton Basel and St. Gallen. The public and the private non-extractive industry needs access to information about earthquake risks in connection with sub/urban geoengineeing activities, including natural gas production through fracking, geothermal energy production, carbon sequestration, mining and water irrigation. This presentation illuminates statistical aspects of human-caused earthquakes with respect to different geologic environments. Statistical findings are based on the first catalog of human-caused earthquakes (in Klose 2013). Findings are discussed which include the odds to die during a medium-size earthquake that is set off by geomechanical pollution. Any kind of geoengineering activity causes this type of pollution and increases the likelihood of triggering nearby faults to rupture.
Washington, Oregon, and Hawaii . The Rocky Mountain region, a portion of the central United States known as the New Madrid Seismic Zone, and portions...California, Washington, Oregon, and Alaska and Hawaii . Alaska is the most earthquake-prone state, experiencing a magnitude 7 earthquake1 almost every...Oakland, CA $349 23 Las Vegas, NV $28 4 San Francisco, CA $346 24 Anchorage, AK $25 5 San Jose, CA $243 25 Boston, MA $23 6 Orange, CA $214 26 Hilo , HI $20
Flat earthquake premiums are 'uniformly' set for a variety of buildings in many countries, neglecting the fact that the risk of damage to buildings by earthquakes is based on a wide range of factors. How these factors influence the insurance premiums is worth being studied further. Proposed herein is a risk-based approach to estimate the earthquake insurance rates of buildings. Examples of application of the approach to buildings located in Taipei city of Taiwan were examined. Then, the earthquake insurance rates for the buildings investigated were calculated and tabulated. To fulfil insurance rating, the buildings were classified into 15 model building types according to their construction materials and building height. Seismic design levels were also considered in insurance rating in response to the effect of seismic zone and construction years of buildings. This paper may be of interest to insurers, actuaries, and private and public sectors of insurance. © 2018 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2018.
An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...
which affect taller , multi-story buildings. Ground motion that affects shorter buildings of a few stories, called short-period seismic waves, is...places in a single fault, or jump between connected faults. Earthquakes that occur along the Sierra Madre fault in southern California, for example
Sadeghi-Bazargani, Homayoun; Azami-Aghdash, Saber; Kazemi, Abdolhassan; Ziapour, Behrad
Bam earthquake was the most catastrophic natural disasters in recent years. The aim of this study was to review different aspects of crisis management during and after the catastrophic earthquake in Bam City, Iran. Data needed for this systematic review were collected through searching PubMed, EMBASE and SID databases, for the period from 2003 to 2011. Keywords included earthquake, Iran and Bam earthquake. The data were summarized and were analyzed using Content Analysis. Out of 422 articles, 25 articles were included in the study. Crisis Management aspects and existing pitfalls were classified into seven categories including planning and organization, human resource management, management of logistics, international humanitarian aids, field performance of the military and security forces, health and medical service provision, and information management. Positive aspects and major pitfalls of crisis management have been introduced in all the mentioned categories. The available evidence indicated poor crisis management during Bam earthquake that resulted in aggravating the losses as well as diminishing the effect of interventions. Thus, concerning the importance of different aspects of the crisis management and the high prevalence of disasters in Iran, the observed vulnerability in disaster management process should be addressed.
Pakiser, Louis C.
One of a series of general interest publications on science topics, the booklet provides those interested in earthquakes with an introduction to the subject. Following a section presenting an historical look at the world's major earthquakes, the booklet discusses earthquake-prone geographic areas, the nature and workings of earthquakes, earthquake…
Walter, Edward J.
Presents an analysis of the causes of earthquakes. Topics discussed include (1) geological and seismological factors that determine the effect of a particular earthquake on a given structure; (2) description of some large earthquakes such as the San Francisco quake; and (3) prediction of earthquakes. (HM)
Kossobokov, V. G.; Nekrasova, A.
We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on morphostructural analysis, pattern recognition, and the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes, USLE, which generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship making use of naturally fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size in a seismic region. The USLE stands for an empirical relationship log10N(M, L) = A + B·(5 - M) + C·log10L, where N(M, L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L. We use parameters A, B, and C of USLE to estimate, first, the expected maximum credible magnitude in a time interval at seismically prone nodes of the morphostructural scheme of the region under study, then map the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters (e.g. peak ground acceleration, PGA, or macro-seismic intensity etc.). After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (usually, the observed instrumental PGA or the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures (e.g., those based on census of population, buildings inventory, etc.). This, USLE based, methodology of seismic hazard and risks assessment is applied to the territory of Altai-Sayan Region, of Russia. The study supported by the Russian Science Foundation Grant No. 15-17-30020.
Kossobokov, Vladimir G.; Nekrasova, Anastasia K.
We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on morphostructural analysis, pattern recognition, and the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), which generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship making use of naturally fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size in a seismic region. The USLE stands for an empirical relationship log10 N(M, L) = A + B·(5 - M) + C·log10 L, where N(M, L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within a seismically prone area of linear dimension L. We use parameters A, B, and C of USLE to estimate, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at seismically prone nodes of the morphostructural scheme of the region under study, then map the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, PGA, or macro-seismic intensity). After a rigorous verification against the available seismic evidences in the past (usually, the observed instrumental PGA or the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures (e.g., those based on census of population, buildings inventory). The methodology of seismic hazard and risk assessment is illustrated by application to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea.
Shearer, Peter M; Stark, Philip B
The recent elevated rate of large earthquakes has fueled concern that the underlying global rate of earthquake activity has increased, which would have important implications for assessments of seismic hazard and our understanding of how faults interact. We examine the timing of large (magnitude M≥7) earthquakes from 1900 to the present, after removing local clustering related to aftershocks. The global rate of M≥8 earthquakes has been at a record high roughly since 2004, but rates have been almost as high before, and the rate of smaller earthquakes is close to its historical average. Some features of the global catalog are improbable in retrospect, but so are some features of most random sequences--if the features are selected after looking at the data. For a variety of magnitude cutoffs and three statistical tests, the global catalog, with local clusters removed, is not distinguishable from a homogeneous Poisson process. Moreover, no plausible physical mechanism predicts real changes in the underlying global rate of large events. Together these facts suggest that the global risk of large earthquakes is no higher today than it has been in the past.
Shearer, Peter M.; Stark, Philip B.
The recent elevated rate of large earthquakes has fueled concern that the underlying global rate of earthquake activity has increased, which would have important implications for assessments of seismic hazard and our understanding of how faults interact. We examine the timing of large (magnitude M≥7) earthquakes from 1900 to the present, after removing local clustering related to aftershocks. The global rate of M≥8 earthquakes has been at a record high roughly since 2004, but rates have been almost as high before, and the rate of smaller earthquakes is close to its historical average. Some features of the global catalog are improbable in retrospect, but so are some features of most random sequences—if the features are selected after looking at the data. For a variety of magnitude cutoffs and three statistical tests, the global catalog, with local clusters removed, is not distinguishable from a homogeneous Poisson process. Moreover, no plausible physical mechanism predicts real changes in the underlying global rate of large events. Together these facts suggest that the global risk of large earthquakes is no higher today than it has been in the past. PMID:22184228
Mata, Isabel; Rodrigues, Isabel; Matias, Luis
"Earthquakes in the kindergarten educate for risk mitigation" Isabel Rodrigues, Jardim de Infância D. Dinis, Odivelas, Isabel Mata, Secondary School Adelaide Cabette, Odivelas Luis Matias (UL / IDL), Instituto Dom Luiz, Universityof Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal In Portugal Education for risk is now recognized as a child training component and young learners should develop the right skills in the first years of life. School can have an important role in this process, as a privileged actor in the mobilization of every society, providing and promoting dynamic and educational practices aimed at the wider spectrum of education for citizenship, the adoption of safety behaviours, prevention and adequate management of risk. The Group of Schools Adelaide Cabette in Odivelas is now a set of schools, from Kindergarten to Secondary. Aiming at educating for risk prevention, we developed an experiment with a pre-school class directed to the seismic risk, which was extended to Earth Sciences because it is difficult to teach this topic to the youngest learners, either from Kindergarten or from Primary School, as they haven't learned enough about planet Earth (many don't even know that it is not flat but round like a ball). This experiment involved a working project 1, which was initially developed in one of the classrooms, in kindergarten D. Dinis, and many questions have been asked by the students. The explanation for the students' questions gave origin to a set of experiences developed in the Secondary school. The same class concluded the project in their own classroom. In this project the young learners could have contact with pre-school teachers, secondary and university researchers, thus promoting the sharing of different knowledge, including the scientific linked to the educational one. We would like to share our poster summarizing our experience which we feltwas not only a great challenge, but also a rewarding way to disseminate science to the youngest learners. 1. Keywords
Pondard, Nicolas; Armijo, Rolando; King, Geoffrey C. P.; Meyer, Bertrand; Ucarkus, Gulsen
Seismotectonic methods allowing quantitative measures of the frequency and severity of earthquakes have greatly advanced over the last 30 years, aided by high-resolution imagery, digital topography and modern techniques for dating. During the same period, deterministic models based on the physics of earthquakes (Coulomb stress interactions) have been extensively developed to explain the distribution of earthquakes in space and time. Seismotectonic data and Coulomb Stress models provide valuable information on seismic hazard and could assist the public policy, disaster risk management and financial risk transfer communities to make more informed decisions around their strategic planning and risk management activities. The Sea of Marmara and Istanbul regions (North Anatolian Fault, NAF) are among the most appropriate on Earth to analyse seismic hazard, because reliable data covers almost completely two seismic cycles (the past ~500 years). Earthquake ruptures associated with historical events have been found in the direct vicinity of the city, on the Marmara sea floor. The MARMARASCARPS cruise using an unmanned submersible (ROV) provides direct observations to study the morphology and geology of those ruptures, their distribution and geometry. These observations are crucial to quantify the magnitude of past earthquakes along the submarine fault system (e.g. 1894, 1912, 1999, M > 7). In particular, the identification of a break continuous over 60 km with a right-lateral slip of 5 m, corresponding probably to the offshore extension of the Ganos earthquake rupture (1912, Ms 7.4), modifies substantially our understanding of the current state of loading along the NAF next to Istanbul. Coulomb stress analysis is used to characterise loading evolution in well-identified fault segments, including secular loading from below and lateral loading imposed by the occurrence of previous earthquakes. The 20th century earthquake sequence in the region of Istanbul is modelled using
Perera, Jeevan S.
Leadership is key to success. Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks -- risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.
Scientific understanding of earthquakes and their attendant hazards is vital for the development of effective earthquake risk reduction strategies. Within the global disaster reduction policy framework (the Hyogo Framework for Action, overseen by the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), the anticipated role of science and scientists is clear, with respect to risk assessment, loss estimation, space-based observation, early warning and forecasting. The importance of information sharing and cooperation, cross-disciplinary networks and developing technical and institutional capacity for effective disaster management is also highlighted. In practice, the degree to which seismological information is successfully delivered to and applied by individuals, groups or organisations working to manage or reduce the risk from earthquakes is variable. The challenge for scientists is to provide fit-for-purpose information that can be integrated simply into decision-making and risk reduction activities at all levels of governance and at different geographic scales, often by a non-technical audience (i.e. people without any seismological/earthquake engineering training). The interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction (defined here in terms of both the relationship between the science and its application, and the scientist and other risk stakeholders) is complex. This complexity is a function of a range issues that arise relating to communication, multidisciplinary working, politics, organisational practices, inter-organisational collaboration, working practices, sectoral cultures, individual and organisational values, worldviews and expectations. These factors can present significant obstacles to scientific information being incorporated into the decision-making process. The purpose of this paper is to present some personal reflections on the nature of the interface between the worlds of seismological research and risk reduction, and the
Osborn, John E.
Colleges and universities face a wide range of environmental risk. In spite of this, with proper planning, they can avoid emergencies or surprises. Advanced planning, coupled with strategic, technical environmental and legal advice, enable higher-education institutions to keep their environmental budgets under control and predictable. This article…
Zulfikar, Can; Kariptas, Cagatay; Biyikoglu, Hikmet; Ozarpa, Cevat
Earthquake Risk Reduction to Istanbul Natural Gas Distribution Network Istanbul Natural Gas Distribution Corporation (IGDAS) is one of the end users of the Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) signal. IGDAS, the primary natural gas provider in Istanbul, operates an extensive system 9,867km of gas lines with 750 district regulators and 474,000 service boxes. The natural gas comes to Istanbul city borders with 70bar in 30inch diameter steel pipeline. The gas pressure is reduced to 20bar in RMS stations and distributed to district regulators inside the city. 110 of 750 district regulators are instrumented with strong motion accelerometers in order to cut gas flow during an earthquake event in the case of ground motion parameters exceeds the certain threshold levels. Also, state of-the-art protection systems automatically cut natural gas flow when breaks in the gas pipelines are detected. IGDAS uses a sophisticated SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) system to monitor the state-of-health of its pipeline network. This system provides real-time information about quantities related to pipeline monitoring, including input-output pressure, drawing information, positions of station and RTU (remote terminal unit) gates, slum shut mechanism status at 750 district regulator sites. IGDAS Real-time Earthquake Risk Reduction algorithm follows 4 stages as below: 1) Real-time ground motion data transmitted from 110 IGDAS and 110 KOERI (Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute) acceleration stations to the IGDAS Scada Center and KOERI data center. 2) During an earthquake event EEW information is sent from IGDAS Scada Center to the IGDAS stations. 3) Automatic Shut-Off is applied at IGDAS district regulators, and calculated parameters are sent from stations to the IGDAS Scada Center and KOERI. 4) Integrated building and gas pipeline damage maps are prepared immediately after the earthquake event. The today's technology allows to rapidly estimate the
Perera, Jeevan S.
Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks - not just risk office personnel. Each group/department is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. ? Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.
Girgin, Serkan; Krausmann, Elisabeth
Natural hazard-triggered technological accidents (so-called Natech accidents) at hazardous installations are an emerging risk with possibly serious consequences due to the potential for release of hazardous materials, fires or explosions. For the reduction of Natech risk, one of the highest priority needs is the identification of Natech-prone areas and the systematic assessment of Natech risks. With hardly any Natech risk maps existing within the EU the European Commission's Joint Research Centre has developed a Natech risk analysis and mapping tool called RAPID-N, that estimates the overall risk of natural-hazard impact to industrial installations and its possible consequences. The results are presented as risk summary reports and interactive risk maps which can be used for decision making. Currently, RAPID-N focuses on Natech risk due to earthquakes at industrial installations. However, it will be extended to also analyse and map Natech risk due to floods in the near future. The RAPID-N methodology is based on the estimation of on-site natural hazard parameters, use of fragility curves to determine damage probabilities of plant units for various damage states, and the calculation of spatial extent, severity, and probability of Natech events potentially triggered by the natural hazard. The methodology was implemented as a web-based risk assessment and mapping software tool which allows easy data entry, rapid local or regional risk assessment and mapping. RAPID-N features an innovative property estimation framework to calculate on-site natural hazard parameters, industrial plant and plant unit characteristics, and hazardous substance properties. Custom damage states and fragility curves can be defined for different types of plant units. Conditional relationships can be specified between damage states and Natech risk states, which describe probable Natech event scenarios. Natech consequences are assessed using a custom implementation of U.S. EPA's Risk Management
Zaré, M; Afrouz, S Ghaychi
The huge earthquake in 11 March 2012 which followed by a destructive tsunami in Japan was largest recorded earthquake in the history. Japan is pioneer in disaster management, especially earthquakes. How this developed country faced this disaster, which had significant worldwide effects? The humanitarian behavior of the Japanese people amazingly wondered the word's media, meanwhile the management of government and authorities showed some deficiencies. The impact of the disaster is followed up after the event and the different impacts are tried to be analyzed in different sectors. The situation one year after Japan 2011 earthquake and Tsunami is overviewed. The reason of Japanese plans failure was the scale of tsunami, having higher waves than what was assumed, especially in the design of the Nuclear Power Plant. Japanese authorities considered economic benefits more than safety and moral factors exacerbate the situation. Major lessons to be learnt are 1) the effectiveness of disaster management should be restudied in all hazardous countries; 2) the importance of the high-Tech early-warning systems in reducing risk; 3) Reconsidering of extreme values expected/possible hazard and risk levels is necessary; 4) Morality and might be taken as an important factor in disaster management; 5) Sustainable development should be taken as the basis for reconstruction after disaster.
Zaré, M; Afrouz, S Ghaychi
The huge earthquake in 11 March 2012 which followed by a destructive tsunami in Japan was largest recorded earthquake in the history. Japan is pioneer in disaster management, especially earthquakes. How this developed country faced this disaster, which had significant worldwide effects? The humanitarian behavior of the Japanese people amazingly wondered the word’s media, meanwhile the management of government and authorities showed some deficiencies. The impact of the disaster is followed up after the event and the different impacts are tried to be analyzed in different sectors. The situation one year after Japan 2011 earthquake and Tsunami is overviewed. The reason of Japanese plans failure was the scale of tsunami, having higher waves than what was assumed, especially in the design of the Nuclear Power Plant. Japanese authorities considered economic benefits more than safety and moral factors exacerbate the situation. Major lessons to be learnt are 1) the effectiveness of disaster management should be restudied in all hazardous countries; 2) the importance of the high-Tech early-warning systems in reducing risk; 3) Reconsidering of extreme values expected/possible hazard and risk levels is necessary; 4) Morality and might be taken as an important factor in disaster management; 5) Sustainable development should be taken as the basis for reconstruction after disaster. PMID:23113189
Van Dissen, R.; Brackley, H. L.; Francois-Holden, C.
The Wellington region, home of New Zealand's capital city, is cut by a number of major right-lateral strike slip faults, and is underlain by the currently locked west-dipping subduction interface between the down going Pacific Plate, and the over-riding Australian Plate. In its short historic period (ca. 160 years), the region has been impacted by large earthquakes on the strike-slip faults, but has yet to bear the brunt of a subduction interface rupture directly beneath the capital city. It's Our Fault is a comprehensive study of Wellington's earthquake risk. Its objective is to position the capital city of New Zealand to become more resilient through an encompassing study of the likelihood of large earthquakes, and the effects and impacts of these earthquakes on humans and the built environment. It's Our Fault is jointly funded by New Zealand's Earthquake Commission, Accident Compensation Corporation, Wellington City Council, Wellington Region Emergency Management Group, Greater Wellington Regional Council, and Natural Hazards Research Platform. The programme has been running for six years, and key results to date include better definition and constraints on: 1) location, size, timing, and likelihood of large earthquakes on the active faults closest to Wellington; 2) earthquake size and ground shaking characterization of a representative suite of subduction interface rupture scenarios under Wellington; 3) stress interactions between these faults; 4) geological, geotechnical, and geophysical parameterisation of the near-surface sediments and basin geometry in Wellington City and the Hutt Valley; and 5) characterisation of earthquake ground shaking behaviour in these two urban areas in terms of subsoil classes specified in the NZ Structural Design Standard. The above investigations are already supporting measures aimed at risk reduction, and collectively they will facilitate identification of additional actions that will have the greatest benefit towards further
Romeo Cretu, Zeno; Armas, Iuliana; Stanciugelu, Irina
The importance of studying the relationship with the natural hazard events from a psycho-social perspective is fundamental by the experience with past disasters as much as by the research in the field that proved that the people's psychologic structures may constitute a starting point for risk reduction. People's psycho-behavioural patterns contain conscious or unconscious references to the environmental risk, thus creating certain adjustment strategies and mechanisms, with a certain degree of psychological vulnerability. In modern man's case, the high level of awareness in front of natural dangers, doubled by the perception of the environment's unsafety, experienced as a lack of control, brings to attention nowadays the problematic of the analysis of natural risk perception, as a main factor in the adjustment of human communities' capacity of adapting to the natural environment's dynamics. The major objective of this present work is, based on the development of an efficient evaluation methodology, to identify specific relational patterns to seismic risk in Bucharest, function the characteristics of the urban environment, the social, economical and psychological vulnerability, with results that can be applied for disaster management. For explaining human reactions and the way in which they perceive and evaluate the psychological resources, on a daily basis, but also in risk situations (earthquakes), a multi-modal questionnaire was conceived through qualitative methods (a focus group, along with experts from the Public and Administrative Sciences National School, Risk Communication Center). The questionnaire was structured on a 49 items sequence, in which were included different type of questions (with single or multiple answers, open questions etc), and also questions using different scaling methods. The items caught cognitive elements (expectations, anticipations and negative or positive judgments regarding risk element), affective (feelings) and behavioral
IT IS OFTEN NECESSARY TO STUDY THE METHODOLOGY OF WHAT WAS DONE TO KEEP A SOCIETY MOVING WHEN DISASTER STRIKES. OTHERS MAY LOOK BACK ON THOSE METHODS TO HELP THEM IN THEIR TIMES OF NEED. THE TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT FOLLOWING THE 1994 NORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAKE...
Jr., R. F. Miles
Project risk management is primarily concerned with performance, reliability, cost, and schedule. Environmental risk management is primarily concerned with human health and ecological hazards and likelihoods. This paper discusses project risk management and compares it to environmental risk management, both with respect to goals and implementation. The approach of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to risk management is presented as an example of a project risk management approach that is an extension to NASA NHB 7120.5: Management of Major System Programs and Projects.
Li, Shasha; Zhai, Guofang; Zhou, Shutian; Fan, Chenjing; Wu, Yunqing; Ren, Chongqiang
Efficient risk communication is a vital way to reduce the vulnerability of individuals when facing emergency risks, especially regarding earthquakes. Efficient risk communication aims at improving the supply of risk information and fulfilling the need for risk information by individuals. Therefore, an investigation into individual-level information seeking behavior within earthquake risk contexts is very important for improved earthquake risk communication. However, at present there are very few studies that have explored the behavior of individuals seeking earthquake risk information. Under the guidance of the Risk Information Seeking and Processing model as well as relevant practical findings using the structural equation model, this study attempts to explore the main determinants of an individual’s earthquake risk information seeking behavior, and to validate the mediator effect of information need during the seeking process. A questionnaire-based survey of 918 valid respondents in Songyuan, China, who had been hit by a small earthquake swarm, was used to provide practical evidence for this study. Results indicated that information need played a noteworthy role in the earthquake risk information seeking process, and was detected both as an immediate predictor and as a mediator. Informational subjective norms drive the seeking behavior on earthquake risk information through both direct and indirect approaches. Perceived information gathering capacity, negative affective responses and risk perception have an indirect effect on earthquake risk information seeking behavior via information need. The implications for theory and practice regarding risk communication are discussed and concluded. PMID:28272359
Li, Shasha; Zhai, Guofang; Zhou, Shutian; Fan, Chenjing; Wu, Yunqing; Ren, Chongqiang
Efficient risk communication is a vital way to reduce the vulnerability of individuals when facing emergency risks, especially regarding earthquakes. Efficient risk communication aims at improving the supply of risk information and fulfilling the need for risk information by individuals. Therefore, an investigation into individual-level information seeking behavior within earthquake risk contexts is very important for improved earthquake risk communication. However, at present there are very few studies that have explored the behavior of individuals seeking earthquake risk information. Under the guidance of the Risk Information Seeking and Processing model as well as relevant practical findings using the structural equation model, this study attempts to explore the main determinants of an individual's earthquake risk information seeking behavior, and to validate the mediator effect of information need during the seeking process. A questionnaire-based survey of 918 valid respondents in Songyuan, China, who had been hit by a small earthquake swarm, was used to provide practical evidence for this study. Results indicated that information need played a noteworthy role in the earthquake risk information seeking process, and was detected both as an immediate predictor and as a mediator. Informational subjective norms drive the seeking behavior on earthquake risk information through both direct and indirect approaches. Perceived information gathering capacity, negative affective responses and risk perception have an indirect effect on earthquake risk information seeking behavior via information need. The implications for theory and practice regarding risk communication are discussed and concluded.
This report documents implications for earthquake risk reduction in the U.S. The magnitude 7.4 earthquake caused 17,127 deaths, 43,953 injuries, and displaced more than 250,000 people from their homes. The report warns that similar disasters are possible in the United States where earthquakes of comparable size strike the heart of American urban areas. Another concern described in the report is the delayed emergency response that was caused by the inadequate seismic monitoring system in Turkey, a problem that contrasts sharply with rapid assessment and response to the September Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan. Additionally, the experience in Turkey suggests that techniques for forecasting earthquakes may be improving.
The March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake and its tsunami killed 18,508 people, including the missing (National Police Agency report as of April 2014) and raise the Level 7 accident at TEPCO's Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station in Japan. The problems revealed can be viewed as due to a combination of risk-management, risk-communication, and geoethics issues. Japan's preparations for earthquakes and tsunamis are based on the magnitude of the anticipated earthquake for each region. The government organization coordinating the estimation of anticipated earthquakes is the "Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion" (HERP), which is under the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). Japan's disaster mitigation system is depicted schematically as consisting of three layers: seismology, civil engineering, and disaster mitigation planning. This research explains students in geoscience should study geoethics as part of their education related Tohoku earthquake and the Level 7 accident at TEPCO's Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station. Only when they become practicing professionals, they will be faced with real geoethical dilemmas. A crisis such as the 2011 earthquake, tsunami, and Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident, will force many geoscientists to suddenly confront previously unanticipated geoethics and risk-communication issues. One hopes that previous training will help them to make appropriate decisions under stress. We name it "decision science".
Gyawali, Bishal; Keeling, June; Kallestrup, Per
As Nepal mourns the 1-year commemoration of the April 2015 earthquake and its aftershocks that killed more than 8500 people and left thousands injured and displaced, other more hidden repercussions of the resultant chaotic environment need attention: the increased risk of human trafficking. Considering that natural disasters provide a milieu for this illicit trade, there is a need for a robust response from stakeholders such as donors, civil society organizations, and government organizations against human trafficking following disasters such as the Nepal earthquake. Responsibility to prevent and fight trafficking should be explicitly included in the mandate of relief and rehabilitation mechanisms set up at the national level to coordinate the disaster relief response, serving to support populations in both rural and urban areas. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:153-154).
Nakayachi, Kazuya; Kudo, Daisuke; Ozaki, Taku
This study investigated the levels of public trust in organizations associated with the Great East Japan Earthquake. In Study 1 (N = 639), the levels of trust in eight organizations as well as the determinants of trust--perceived salient value similarity (SVS), ability, and motivation--were measured twice, first immediately after the earthquake and then a year later. The results indicated that the trust levels for six of the eight organizations had been preserved, supporting the double asymmetric effect of trust. The results of structural equation modeling (SEM) revealed that SVS explained trust more when the organization had been less trusted. Trust in the organization explains well the perceived reduction of the target risk. The results of SEM in Study 2 (N = 1,030) replicated those of Study 1, suggesting the stability of the explanatory power of the determinants of trust. Implications of the study for risk management practices are discussed.
Smolka, A. J.
Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all
Managing clinical risk involves all staff with clinical and managerial responsibilities. This article draws attention to some key steps in risk management and ways to deal with the problems when things do go wrong.
Examines the types of damage experienced by California State University at Northridge during the 1994 earthquake and what lessons were learned in handling this emergency are discussed. The problem of loose asbestos is addressed. (GR)
The earthquakes that hit Kumamoto Prefecture in Japan on April 14 and 16, 2016 severely damaged over 180,000 houses, including over 8,000 that were completely destroyed and others that were partially damaged according to the Cabinet Office's report as of November 14, 2016 . Following these earthquakes, other parts of the world have been struck by earthquakes including Italy and New Zealand as well as the central part of Tottori Prefecture in October, where the earthquake-induced collapse of buildings has led to severe damage and casualties. The earthquakes in Kumamoto Prefecture, in fact, damaged various disaster management facilities including Uto City Hall, which significantly hindered the city's evacuation and recovery operations. One of the most crucial issues in times of disaster is securing the functions of disaster management facilities such as city halls, hospitals and fire stations. To address this issue, seismic simulations are conducted on the East and the West buildings of Toyohashi City Hall using the analysis tool developed by the author, STERA_3D, with the data of the ground motion waveform prediction for the Nankai Trough earthquake provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. As the result, it was found that the buildings have sufficient earthquake resistance. It turned out, however, that the west building is at risk for wall cracks or ceiling panel's collapse while in the east building, people would not be able to stand through the strong quakes of 7 on the seismic intensity scale and cabinets not secured to the floors or walls would fall over. Additionally, three IT strong-motion seismometers were installed in the city hall to continuously monitor vibrations. Every five minutes, the vibration data obtained by the seismometers are sent to the computers in Toyohashi University of Technology via the Internet for the analysis tools to run simulations in the cloud. If an earthquake strikes, it is able to use the results
Welsh, M. B.; Steacy, S.; Begg, S. H.; Navarro, D. J.
L'Aquila, with 6 scientists convicted of manslaughter, shocked the scientific community, leading to urgent re-appraisal of communication methods for low-probability, high-impact events. Before the trial, a commission investigating the earthquake recommended risk assessment be formalised via operational earthquake forecasts and that social scientists be enlisted to assist in developing communication strategies. Psychological research has identified numerous decision biases relevant to this, including hindsight bias, where people (after the fact) overestimate an event's predictability. This affects experts as well as naïve participants as it relates to their ability to construct a plausible causal story rather than the likelihood of the event. Another problem is availability, which causes overestimation of the likelihood of observed rare events due to their greater noteworthiness. This, however, is complicated by the 'description-experience' gap, whereby people underestimate probabilities for events they have not experienced. That is, people who have experienced strong earthquakes judge them more likely while those who have not judge them less likely - relative to actual probabilities. Finally, format changes alter people's decisions. That is people treat '1 in 10,000' as different from 0.01% despite their mathematical equivalence. Such effects fall under the broad term framing, which describes how different framings of the same event alter decisions. In particular, people's attitude to risk depends significantly on how scenarios are described. We examine the effect of biases on the communication of change in risk. South Australian participants gave responses to scenarios describing familiar (bushfire) or unfamiliar (earthquake) risks. While bushfires are rare in specific locations, significant fire events occur each year and are extensively covered. By comparison, our study location (Adelaide) last had a M5 quake in 1954. Preliminary results suggest the description
Hall, Jonathan; Lutomski, M.
This viewgraph presentation reviews the use of risk management in Extravehicular Activities (EVA). The contents include: 1) EVA Office at NASA - JSC; 2) EVA Project Risk Management: Why and When; 3) EVA Office Risk Management: How; 4) Criteria for Closing a Risk; 5) Criteria for Accepting a Risk; 6) ISS IRMA Reference Card Data Entry Requirement s; 7) XA/ EVA Office Risk Activity Summary; 8) EVA Significant Change Summary; 9) Integrated Risk Management Application (XA) Matrix, March 31, 2004; 10) ISS Watch Item: 50XX Summary Report; and 11) EVA Project RM Usefulness
Sghaier, W; Hergon, E; Desroches, A
Risk management is a fundamental component of any successful company, whether it is in economic, societal or environmental aspect. Risk management is an especially important activity for companies that optimal security challenge of products and services is great. This is the case especially for the health sector institutions. Risk management is therefore a decision support tool and a means to ensure the sustainability of an organization. In this context, what methods and approaches implemented to manage the risks? Through this state of the art, we are interested in the concept of risk and risk management processes. Then we focus on the different methods of risk management and the criteria for choosing among these methods. Finally we highlight the need to supplement these methods by a systemic and global approach including through risk assessment by the audits. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
Daniell, James; Schaefer, Andreas; Toro, Joaquin; Murnane, Rick; Tijssen, Annegien; Simpson, Alanna; Saito, Keiko; Winsemius, Hessel; Ward, Philip
This systematic assessment of earthquake risk for 33 countries in the ECA region was motivated by the interest of the World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) in supporting Disaster Risk Management (DRM) efforts. They envisaged an exposure-based analysis that looked at the potential economic and/or social exposure of the populations of various countries to earthquake risk. Using a stochastic earthquake hazard model and historical catalogues, a unified earthquake catalogue was created for the 33 countries. A combined fault and background source model was created using data from many authors. The maximum magnitude and seismotectonic source zone discretization was undertaken using logic tree approaches. Site effects were taken into account on the basis of local topography and tectonic regime. Two approaches were used to calculate local ground motion - intensity prediction equations for MMI and a combination of GMPEs for stable and active settings. A 1km grid was used for analysis with aggregations of exposure quantified in terms of GDP and capital stock using disaggregated provincial analysis from CATDAT, as well as population data from Deltares. Vulnerability functions were calculated using socio-economic empirical functions derived by Daniell (2014) for the countries taking into account historical losses, seismic resistant code implementation and building typologies in each country. PML curves were created for each province in the 33 nations, through 3 methods; the 1st using direct historical values via the CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database; the 2nd using normalization procedures in order to provide a quick estimate of the historical record quantified in today's terms filling in gaps; and the 3rd being a traditional stochastic modelling approach over a period of 10,000 years taking all uncertainties into account. SSP projections of growth from the OECD were used to quantify the risk in 2010, 2030 and 2080 in order to examine
Wright, Shayla L.
Continuous Risk Management (CM) is a software engineering practice with processes, methods, and tools for managing risk in a project. It provides a controlled environment for practical decision making, in order to assess continually what could go wrong, determine which risk are important to deal with, implement strategies to deal with those risk and assure the measure effectiveness of the implemented strategies. Continuous Risk Management provides many training workshops and courses to teach the staff how to implement risk management to their various experiments and projects. The steps of the CRM process are identification, analysis, planning, tracking, and control. These steps and the various methods and tools that go along with them, identification, and dealing with risk is clear-cut. The office that I worked in was the Risk Management Office (RMO). The RMO at NASA works hard to uphold NASA s mission of exploration and advancement of scientific knowledge and technology by defining and reducing program risk. The RMO is one of the divisions that fall under the Safety and Assurance Directorate (SAAD). I worked under Cynthia Calhoun, Flight Software Systems Engineer. My task was to develop a help screen for the Continuous Risk Management Implementation Tool (RMIT). The Risk Management Implementation Tool will be used by many NASA managers to identify, analyze, track, control, and communicate risks in their programs and projects. The RMIT will provide a means for NASA to continuously assess risks. The goals and purposes for this tool is to provide a simple means to manage risks, be used by program and project managers throughout NASA for managing risk, and to take an aggressive approach to advertise and advocate the use of RMIT at each NASA center.
Smolka, Anselm; Siebert, Andreas
The insurance sector is faced with two issues regarding earthquake risk: the estimation of rarely occurring losses from large events and the assessment of the average annual net loss. For this purpose, knowledge is needed of actual event losses, of the distribution of exposed values, and of their vulnerability to earthquakes. To what extent can remote sensing help the insurance industry fulfil these tasks, and what are its limitations? In consequence of more regular and high-resolution satellite coverage, we have seen earth observation and remote sensing methods develop over the past years to a stage where they appear to offer great potential for addressing some shortcomings of the data underlying risk assessment. These include lack of statistical representativeness and lack of topicality. Here, remote sensing can help in the following areas: • Inventories of exposed objects (pre- and post-disaster) • Projection of small-scale ground-based vulnerability classification surveys to a full inventory • Post-event loss assessment But especially from an insurance point of view, challenges remain. The strength of airborne remote sensing techniques lies in outlining heavily damaged areas where damage is caused by easily discernible structural failure, i.e. total or partial building collapse. Examples are the Haiti earthquake (with minimal insured loss) and the tsunami-stricken areas in the Tohoku district of Japan. What counts for insurers, however, is the sum of monetary losses. The Chile, the Christchurch and the Tohoku earthquakes each caused insured losses in the two-digit billion dollar range. By far the greatest proportion of these insured losses were due to non-structural damage to buildings, machinery and equipment. Even with the Tohoku event, no more than 30% of the total material damage was caused by the tsunami according to preliminary surveys, and this figure includes damage due to earthquake shock which was unrecognisable after the passage of the tsunami
The recent Mw 7.1, 4 September 2010 Darfield, and Mw 6.2, 22 February 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes and the following aftershock activity completely changed the existing view on earthquake hazard of the Christchurch area. Not only have several faults been added to the New Zealand fault database, the main shocks were also followed by significant increases in seismicity due to high aftershock activity throughout the Christchurch region that is still on-going. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) models take into account a stochastic event set, the full range of possible events that can cause damage or loss at a particular location. This allows insurance companies to look at their risk profiles via average annual losses (AAL) and loss-exceedance curves. The loss-exceedance curve is derived from the full suite of seismic events that could impact the insured exposure and plots the probability of exceeding a particular loss level over a certain period. Insurers manage their risk by focusing on a certain return period exceedance benchmark, typically between the 100 and 250 year return period loss level, and then reserve the amount of money needed to account for that return period loss level, their so called capacity. This component of risk management is not too sensitive to short-term changes in risk due to aftershock seismicity, as it is mostly dominated by longer-return period, larger magnitude, more damaging events. However, because the secondairy uncertainties are taken into account when calculating the exceedance probability, even the longer return period losses can still experience significant impact from the inclusion of time-dependent earthquake behavior. AAL is calculated by summing the product of the expected loss level and the annual rate for all events in the event set that cause damage or loss at a particular location. This relatively simple metric is an important factor in setting the annual premiums. By annualizing the expected losses
Abraham, Janice M.
The role of the college or university chief financial officer in institutional risk management is (1) to identify risk (physical, casualty, fiscal, business, reputational, workplace safety, legal liability, employment practices, general liability), (2) to develop a campus plan to reduce and control risk, (3) to transfer risk, and (4) to track and…
Hall, James C.
Ask a college administrator about students and risk management, and you're likely to get a quick and agitated speech about alcohol consumption and bad behavior or a meditation on mental health and campus safety. But in colleges and universities, we manage intellectual risk-taking too. Bring that up, and you'll probably get little out of that same…
Sungay, B.; Durukal, E.; Kilic, O.; Konukcu, B.; Basmaci, A. E.; Khazai, B.; Erdik, M.
The natural events such as earthquakes turn out to be disasters as a result of not only the poor conditions of the built area and infrastructure, but also affected by the socioeconomic fragility and lack of resilience of the community exposed. Likewise, resilience factors play role in increasing the ability of people to cope with hazards. Social resilience is the capacity of social groups and communities to recover from, or respond positively to, crises. Emergency management plans must recognize and build on this capacity, and that improved indicators of social resilience should receive priority consideration in the application of these plans. The physical risk factors and their damage assessment have been pointed out in previous earthquake risk assessment and scenario studies conducted by Bogazici University and OYO International. A rational assessment of the risk aggravating factors is essential in order to reach to a more complete coverage of the overall risk. It would also introduce the social factors that need to be reduced or strengthened through public policies and actions in order to increase the resilience of the community. With experience from several social studies conducted under CENDIM, Kandilli Observatory & Earthquake Research Institute's Disaster Preparedness Education Unit, and research of the studies conducted by several other national and international institutions, we are defining the community disaster preparedness as an indicator for resilience. Social resilience is understood to have two important properties: resistance, recovery. Resistance relates to a community's efforts to withstand a disaster and its consequences whereas recovery relates to a community's ability to coming back to its pre-disaster level of "normalcy". Researches also indicate that the need for local-level and community-based approaches is recognized in achieving sustainable hazard risk reduction. We will conceptually discuss the description and assessment of the community
Kaplan, O.; Avdan, U.; Guney, Y.; Helvaci, C.
The majority of the existing buildings are not safe against earthquakes in most of the developing countries. Before a devastating earthquake, existing buildings need to be assessed and the vulnerable ones must be determined. Determining the seismic performance of existing buildings which is usually made with collecting the attributes of existing buildings, making the analysis and the necessary queries, and producing the result maps is very hard and complicated procedure that can be simplified with Geographic Information System (GIS). The aim of this study is to produce a building inventory database using GIS for assessing the earthquake risk of existing buildings. In this paper, a building inventory database for 310 buildings, located in Eskisehir, Turkey, was produced in order to assess the earthquake risk of the buildings. The results from this study show that 26% of the buildings have high earthquake risk, 33% of the buildings have medium earthquake risk and the 41% of the buildings have low earthquake risk. The produced building inventory database can be very useful especially for governments in dealing with the problem of determining seismically vulnerable buildings in the large existing building stocks. With the help of this kind of methods, determination of the buildings, which may collapse and cause life and property loss during a possible future earthquake, will be very quick, cheap and reliable.
Tolon, Mert; Yazgan, Ufuk; Ural, Derin N; Goss, Kay C
On October 23, 2011, a M7.2 earthquake caused damage in a widespread area in the Van province located in eastern Turkey. This strong earthquake was followed by a M5.7 earthquake on November 9, 2011. This sequence of damaging earthquakes led to 644 fatalities. The management during and after these earthquake disaster imposed many critical challenges. In this article, an overview of these challenges is presented based on the observations by the authors in the aftermath of this disaster. This article presents the characteristics of 2011 Van earthquakes. Afterward, the key information related to the four main phases (ie, preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery) of the disaster in Van is presented. The potential strategies that can be taken to improve the disaster management practice are identified, and a set of recommendations are proposed to improve the existing situation.
RMP implements Section 112(r) of the 1990 Clean Air Act amendments, and requires facilities that use extremely hazardous substances to develop a Risk Management Plan and revise/resubmit every five years. Find guidance, factsheets, training, and assistance.
Rep. Hudson, Richard [R-NC-8
House - 02/12/2014 Referred to the Subcommittee on General Farm Commodities and Risk Management. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status IntroducedHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:
Besana-Ostman, G. M.
With the increasing concerns regarding both natural and induced seismicity in Ohio, ODNR (Ohio Department of Natural Resources) initial efforts on seismic risk reduction paved way to various changes and improvement to tackle several major issues. For natural earthquakes, regional seismicity indicates a NE-SW structure in the northern portion of the area associated with a number of moderate historical earthquakes but no active trace identified. On the other hand, earthquakes of 1986 and 2011 are most probably incidents of induced seismicity that trigger more public uproar against disposal of regulated waste waters through injections. ODNR, in efforts to adapt with increasing need to regulate all operations related to both the Utica and Marcellus shale play within the state, had recently strengthen itself both through additional human resources and improved infrastructure. Tougher regulations and additional field tests were required that took effect immediately when a M4 earthquake was associated with the operations of an injection well. Public meetings were undertaken focused on educating many local inhabitants related to oil and gas operations, hydraulic fracturing, injection wells, and seismicity. Trainings for new and existing staff were regularly done especially for field inspection, data management and technology advancements. Considering the existing seismic stations that are few and distant related to sites of the injection wells, additional seismic stations were installed to gather baseline data and monitor for earthquakes within the injection area(s). Furthermore, to assess if the sites of the injection wells are safe from active structures, initial geomorphic and structural analyses indicated possible active faults in the northern portion of state oriented NE-SW. With the above-mentioned recent changes, ODNR had made a significant leap not only in the improvement of its principal regulatory role in the state for oil and gas operations but also in its
Johnson, Cheryl P.; Levering, Steve
School districts are held accountable not only for the monies that contribute to the education system but also for mitigating any issues that threaten student learning. Some school districts are fortunate to have professional risk managers on staff who can identify and control the many risks that are unique to school systems. Most schools,…
Raeesi, M.; Sadeghi-Niaraki, A.
Earthquakes are among the most destructive natural disasters. Earthquakes happen mainly near the edges of tectonic plates, but they may happen just about anywhere. Earthquakes cannot be predicted. Quick response after disasters, like earthquake, decreases loss of life and costs. Massive earthquakes often cause structures to collapse, trapping victims under dense rubble for long periods of time. After the earthquake and destroyed some areas, several teams are sent to find the location of the destroyed areas. The search and rescue phase usually is maintained for many days. Time reduction for surviving people is very important. A Geographical Information System (GIS) can be used for decreasing response time and management in critical situations. Position estimation in short period of time time is important. This paper proposes a GIS based system for post-earthquake disaster management solution. This system relies on several mobile positioning methods such as cell-ID and TA method, signal strength method, angel of arrival method, time of arrival method and time difference of arrival method. For quick positioning, the system can be helped by any person who has a mobile device. After positioning and specifying the critical points, the points are sent to a central site for managing the procedure of quick response for helping. This solution establishes a quick way to manage the post-earthquake crisis.
Williams, Martin L
Rather than attempt to provide a comprehensive account of air quality risk assessment, as might be found in a textbook or manual, this article discusses some issues that are of current importance in the United Kingdom and the rest of Europe, with special emphasis on risk assessment in the context of policy formulation, and emerging scientific knowledge. There are two pollutants of particular concern and that both pose challenges for risk assessment and policy, and they are particulate matter (PM) and ozone. The article describes some issues for health risk assessment and finally some forward-looking suggestions for future approaches to air quality management.
Cheng, Yongzhong; Wang, Fang; Wen, Jin; Shi, Yingkang
Few clues were found in the literature about the independent risk factors for PTSD among earthquake survivors in Sichuan province three years after the 2008 earthquake. Ours was the first case-control study with matching factors of age and distance from the epicenter among survivors age 16 years or older, three years after the catastrophe. To identify independent risk factors for PTSD among earthquake survivors. We performed a population-based matched case-control study. The cases were drawn from earthquake areas three years after the Wenchuan earthquake, including 113 cases who met positive criteria for PTSD symptoms according to the PCL-C (PTSD Checklist-Civilian Version) score and 452 controls who did not meet the criteria. Cases and controls were matched individually by birth year (+ three years) and the town they lived in when the earthquake occurred. Independent risk factors for PTSD symptoms included two-week disease prevalence (odds ratio [OR],1.92; 95% confidence interval [CI],1.18-3.13), witnessing someone being killed in the earthquake (OR, 2.04;95%CI, 1.17-3.58), having no regular income after the earthquake (OR, 0.52; 95%CI, 0.28-0.98), receiving mental health support only one time after the earthquake (OR, 2.43; 95%CI, 1.09-5.42) and lower social support (lower PSSS score) (OR, 0.95; 95%CI, 0.93-0.97). Earthquake experience, suffering from physical illnesses, lack of stable income, and lower social support were associated with PTSD symptoms.
Certification Program Acquisition, Technology and Logistics 9 DoD Hexavalent Chromium Risk Reduction Non- Chrome Primer II EXAVAJ ENT CHROM lrUMI...Royal Demolition eXplosive (RDX) • Cyclotrimethylenetrinitramine Hexavalent Chromium (Cr6+) Naphthalene …pending downgrade to watch list Beryllium...T1me (secondo) 700 Acquisition, Technology and Logistics 10 Hexavalent Chromium Risk Management Actions • DoD minimization policy signed April
Hunsucker, J. L.
The purpose of this report is to first present a basis or foundation for the building of an integrated risk management plan and them to present the plan. The integration referred to is across both the temporal and the hierarchical dimensions. Complexity, consequence, and credibility seem to be driving the need for the consideration of risk. Reduction of personal bias and reproducibility of the decision making process seem to be driving the consideration of a formal risk plan. While risk can be used as either a selection tool or a control tool, this paper concentrates on the selection usage. Risk relies on stated purpose. The tightness of the definition of purpose and success is directly reflected in the definition and control of risk. Much of a risk management plan could be designed by the answers to the questions of why, what, who, when, and where. However, any plan must provide the following information about a threat or risk: likelihood, consequence, predictability, reliability, and reproducibility. While the environment at NASA is seen as warm, but not hot, for the introduction of a risk program, some encouragement is seen if the following problems are addressed: no champion, no commitment of resource, confused definitions, lack of direction and focus, a hard sell, NASA culture, many choices of assessment methods, and cost. The plan is designed to follow the normal method of doing work and is structured to follow either the work break down structure or a functional structure very well. The parts of the plan include: defining purpose and success, initial threat assessment, initial risk assessment, reconciling threats and parameters, putting part of the information down and factoring the information back into the decision process as it comes back up, and developing inferences. Two major suggestions are presented. One is to build an office of risk management to be used as a resource by managers in doing the risk process. Another is to form a pilot program to try
Langendorfer, Stephen; And Others
This article identifies the major risks faced by young children in aquatic programs, outlines several methods for managing risk factors, and discusses the steps involved in implementing a risk-management system. (IAH)
Wessen, Randii R.; Padilla, Deborah A.
In this paper, program risk management as applied to the Navigator Program: In Search of New Worlds will be discussed. The Navigator Program's goals are to learn how planetary systems form and to search for those worlds that could or do harbor life.
Rodriguez, Jenna; Ustin, Susan; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel; O'Geen, Anthony Toby
Earthquakes often cause destructive and unpredictable changes that can affect local hydrology (e.g. groundwater elevation or reduction) and thus disrupt land uses and human activities. Prolific agricultural regions overlie seismically active areas, emphasizing the importance to improve our understanding and monitoring of hydrologic and agricultural systems following a seismic event. A thorough data collection is necessary for adequate post-earthquake crop management response; however, the large spatial extent of earthquake's impact makes challenging the collection of robust data sets for identifying locations and magnitude of these impacts. Observing hydrologic responses to earthquakes is not a novel concept, yet there is a lack of methods and tools for assessing earthquake's impacts upon the regional hydrology and agricultural systems. The objective of this paper is to describe how remote sensing imagery, methods and tools allow detecting crop responses and damage incurred after earthquakes because a change in the regional hydrology. Many remote sensing datasets are long archived with extensive coverage and with well-documented methods to assess plant-water relations. We thus connect remote sensing of plant water relations to its utility in agriculture using a post-earthquake agrohydrologic remote sensing (PEARS) framework; specifically in agro-hydrologic relationships associated with recent earthquake events that will lead to improved water management. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Zechar, J. Douglas; Zhuang, Jiancang
In 2003, the Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP) algorithm attracted the attention of seismologists and international news agencies when researchers claimed two successful predictions of large earthquakes. These researchers had begun applying RTP to seismicity in Japan, California, the eastern Mediterranean and Italy; they have since applied it to seismicity in the northern Pacific, Oregon and Nevada. RTP is a pattern recognition algorithm that uses earthquake catalogue data to declare alarms, and these alarms indicate that RTP expects a moderate to large earthquake in the following months. The spatial extent of alarms is highly variable and each alarm typically lasts 9 months, although the algorithm may extend alarms in time and space. We examined the record of alarms and outcomes since the prospective application of RTP began, and in this paper we report on the performance of RTP to date. To analyse these predictions, we used a recently developed approach based on a gambling score, and we used a simple reference model to estimate the prior probability of target earthquakes for each alarm. Formally, we believe that RTP investigators did not rigorously specify the first two `successful' predictions in advance of the relevant earthquakes; because this issue is contentious, we consider analyses with and without these alarms. When we included contentious alarms, RTP predictions demonstrate statistically significant skill. Under a stricter interpretation, the predictions are marginally unsuccessful.
Rosenberg, Linda; Hammer, Theodore F.
Software risk management is important because it helps avoid disasters, rework, and overkill, but more importantly because it stimulates win-win situations. The objectives of software risk management are to identify, address, and eliminate software risk items before they become threats to success or major sources of rework. In general, good project managers are also good managers of risk. It makes good business sense for all software development projects to incorporate risk management as part of project management. The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) at NASA GSFC has been tasked with the responsibility for developing and teaching a systems level course for risk management that provides information on how to implement risk management. The course was developed in conjunction with the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, then tailored to the NASA systems community. This is an introductory tutorial to continuous risk management based on this course. The rational for continuous risk management and how it is incorporated into project management are discussed. The risk management structure of six functions is discussed in sufficient depth for managers to understand what is involved in risk management and how it is implemented. These functions include: (1) Identify the risks in a specific format; (2) Analyze the risk probability, impact/severity, and timeframe; (3) Plan the approach; (4) Track the risk through data compilation and analysis; (5) Control and monitor the risk; (6) Communicate and document the process and decisions.
Laumal, F. E.; Nope, K. B. N.; Peli, Y. S.
Early warning is a warning mechanism before an actual incident occurs, can be implemented on natural events such as tsunamis or earthquakes. Earthquakes are classified in tectonic and volcanic types depend on the source and nature. The tremor in the form of energy propagates in all directions as Primary and Secondary waves. Primary wave as initial earthquake vibrations propagates longitudinally, while the secondary wave propagates like as a sinusoidal wave after Primary, destructive and as a real earthquake. To process the primary vibration data captured by the earthquake sensor, a network management required client computer to receives primary data from sensors, authenticate and forward to a server computer to set up an early warning system. With the water propagation concept, a method of early warning system has been determined in which some sensors are located on the same line, sending initial vibrations as primary data on the same scale and the server recommended to the alarm sound as an early warning.
Are the levels of information risk management efforts within and between firms correlated with the resilience of the firms to information disruptions? This paper examines the question by considering the results of field studies of information risk management practices at organizations and in supply chains. The organizations investigated differ greatly in the degree of coupling from a general and information risk management standpoint, as well as in the levels of internal awareness and activity regarding information risk management. The comparison of the levels of information risk management in the firms and their actual or inferred resilience indicates that a formal information risk management approach is not necessary for resilience in certain sectors.
This thesis examines collapse risk of tall steel braced frame buildings using rupture-to-rafters simulations due to suite of San Andreas earthquakes. Two key advancements in this work are the development of (i) a rational methodology for assigning scenario earthquake probabilities and (ii) an artificial correction-free approach to broadband ground motion simulation. The work can be divided into the following sections: earthquake source modeling, earthquake probability calculations, ground motion simulations, building response, and performance analysis. As a first step the kinematic source inversions of past earthquakes in the magnitude range of 6-8 are used to simulate 60 scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. For each scenario earthquake a 30-year occurrence probability is calculated and we present a rational method to redistribute the forecast earthquake probabilities from UCERF to the simulated scenario earthquake. We illustrate the inner workings of the method through an example involving earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in southern California. Next, three-component broadband ground motion histories are computed at 636 sites in the greater Los Angeles metropolitan area by superposing short-period (0.2s-2.0s) empirical Green's function synthetics on top of long-period (> 2.0s) spectral element synthetics. We superimpose these seismograms on low-frequency seismograms, computed from kinematic source models using the spectral element method, to produce broadband seismograms. Using the ground motions at 636 sites for the 60 scenario earthquakes, 3-D nonlinear analysis of several variants of an 18-story steel braced frame building, designed for three soil types using the 1994 and 1997 Uniform Building Code provisions and subjected to these ground motions, are conducted. Model performance is classified into one of five performance levels: Immediate Occupancy, Life Safety, Collapse Prevention, Red-Tagged, and Model Collapse. The results are combined with
EPA's existing chemicals programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.
Neuhauser, D.; Dietz, L.; Lombard, P.; Klein, F.; Zuzlewski, S.; Kohler, W.; Hellweg, M.; Luetgert, J.; Oppenheimer, D.; Romanowicz, B.
The longstanding cooperation between the USGS Menlo Park and UC Berkeley's Seismological Laboratory for monitoring earthquakes and providing data to the research community is achieving a new level of integration. While station support and data collection for each network (NC, BK, BP) remain the responsibilities of the host institution, picks, codas and amplitudes will be produced and shared between the data centers continuously. Thus, realtime earthquake processing from triggering and locating through magnitude and moment tensor calculation and Shakemap production will take place independently at both locations, improving the robustness of event reporting in the Northern California Earthquake Management Center. Parametric data will also be exchanged with the Southern California Earthquake Management System to allow statewide earthquake detection and processing for further redundancy within the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN). The database plays an integral part in this system, providing the coordination for event processing as well as the repository for event, instrument (metadata) and waveform information. The same master database serves both realtime processing, data quality control and archival, and the data center which provides waveforms and earthquake data to users in the research community. Continuous waveforms from all BK, BP, and NC stations, event waveform gathers, and event information automatically become available at the Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC). Currently, the NCEDC is collecting and makes available over 4 TByes of data per year from the NCEMC stations and other seismic networks, as well as from GPS and and other geophysical instrumentation.
Losses from earthquakes continue to rise despite increasingly sophisticated methods to estimate seismic risk throughout the world. This article discusses five specific reasons why this should be. Loss of life is most pronounced in the developing nations where three factors - poverty, corruption and ignorance - conspire to reduce the effective application of seismic resistant codes. A fourth reason is that in many developing nations the application of seismic resistant construction is inadvertently restricted to wealthy, or civil segments of the community, and is either unobtainable or irrelevant to the most vulnerable segment of the public — the owner/occupiers of substandard dwellings. A fifth flaw in current seismic hazard studies is that sophisticated methodologies to evaluate risk are inappropriate in regions where strain rates are low, and where historical data are short compared to the return time of damaging earthquakes. The scientific community has remained largely unaware of the importance of these impediments to the development and application of appropriate seismic resistant code, and is ill-equipped to address them.
Lebanon faces the risk of powerful earthquakes with potentially devastating effects. However, the Lebanese people in general have not yet recognized this risk, as current educational programs and government officials have failed to inform them about it. This article discusses the essential role that Lebanese institutions of higher education should…
Fujiwara, Takeo; Yagi, Junko; Homma, Hiroaki; Mashiko, Hirobumi; Nagao, Keizo; Okuyama, Makiko
On 11 March 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake and subsequent tsunami hit East Japan. We aim to investigate the impact of trauma experiences related to the earthquake on suicide risk among young children, stratified by child sex. Participants at baseline were children who were exposed to the 2011 disaster at preschool age (affected area, n=198; unaffected area, n=82, total n=280). From July 2013 to May 2014, suicide risk was assessed using the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview for Children and Adolescents (MINI-KID) in a follow-up interview conducted by a child psychiatrist or psychologist (N=210, follow-up rate: 75%). Among young girls in the affected area, 12 out of 65 (18.5%) showed suicidal ideation, which is significantly higher than girls in the unaffected area (4.7%, p for chi-square=0.036). In the multivariate model adjusted for potential confounders and mediators, the odds ratio for 4 or more trauma experiences related to the earthquake was 5.74 (95% confidence interval: 0.83-39.6, p=0.076) compared to no trauma experience related to the earthquake. Among young boys, trauma exposure was not associated with suicidal ideation. Our findings showed that young girls who experienced earthquake-related trauma at preschool age had a higher suicidal ideation 3 years after the earthquake. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Ran, Mao-Sheng; Zhang, Zhen; Fan, Mei; Li, Rong-Hui; Li, Yuan-Hao; Ou, Guo Jing; Jiang, Zhe; Tong, Yu-Zhen; Fang, Ding-Zhi
Suicidal ideation is a common phenomenon in survivors after disaster event. To identify the change of suicidal ideation, and to test hypotheses concerning the suicidal ideation, depression and PTSD symptoms among adolescent survivors after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China. The suicidal ideation among high school students at 6, 12 and 18 months after the Wenchuan earthquake were investigated. Subjects included 737 student survivors in an affected high school. The PTSD Checklist-Civilian Version (PCL-C) and the Chinese Beck Depression Inventory (C-BDI) were used to measure the symptoms of PTSD and depression. The rates of suicidal ideation among the adolescent survivors at 6-, 12- and 18-month after the earthquake were 35.6%, 35.6% and 30.7% respectively. Depression symptoms in the 18-month follow-up, suicidal ideations at 6 and 12 months after the earthquake were the independent risk factors of suicidal ideation in the 18-month follow-up. Depression symptoms were the strongest predictor of suicidal ideation after earthquake. An increased rate of suicidal ideation after the earthquake may be mainly due to depression but not to PTSD symptoms. The disaster-related psychological sequelae and the risk factors of suicidal ideation, especially depression symptoms, should be considered in the mental health services and suicide prevention. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Raghunandan, Meera; Liel, Abbie B.; Luco, Nicolas
Subduction earthquakes similar to the 2011 Japan and 2010 Chile events will occur in the future in the Cascadia subduction zone in the Pacific Northwest. In this paper, nonlinear dynamic analyses are carried out on 24 buildings designed according to outdated and modern building codes for the cities of Seattle, Washington, and Portland, Oregon. The results indicate that the median collapse capacity of the ductile (post-1970) buildings is approximately 40% less when subjected to ground motions from subduction, as compared to crustal earthquakes. Buildings are more susceptible to earthquake-induced collapse when shaken by subduction records (as compared to crustal records of the same intensity) because the subduction motions tend to be longer in duration due to their larger magnitude and the greater source-to-site distance. As a result, subduction earthquakes are shown to contribute to the majority of the collapse risk of the buildings analyzed.
White, Joshua A.; Foxall, William
This work describes strategies for assessing and managing induced seismicity risk during each phase of a carbon storage project. We consider both nuisance and damage potential from induced earthquakes, as well as the indirect risk of enhancing fault leakage pathways. A phased approach to seismicity management is proposed, in which operations are continuously adapted based on available information and an on-going estimate of risk. At each project stage, specific recommendations are made for (a) monitoring and characterization, (b) modeling and analysis, and (c) site operations. The resulting methodology can help lower seismic risk while ensuring site operations remain practical andmore » cost-effective.« less
Marti, Michèle; Stauffacher, Michael; Matthes, Jörg; Wiemer, Stefan
Despite global efforts to reduce seismic risk, actual preparedness levels remain universally low. Although earthquake-resistant building design is the most efficient way to decrease potential losses, its application is not a legal requirement across all earthquake-prone countries and even if, often not strictly enforced. Risk communication encouraging homeowners to take precautionary measures is therefore an important means to enhance a country's earthquake resilience. Our study illustrates that specific interactions of mood, perceived risk, and frame type significantly affect homeowners' attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes. The interdependencies of the variables mood, risk information, and frame type were tested in an experimental 2 × 2 × 2 design (N = 156). Only in combination and not on their own, these variables effectively influence attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes. The control variables gender, "trait anxiety" index, and alteration of perceived risk adjust the effect. Overall, the group with the strongest attitudes toward general precautionary actions for earthquakes are homeowners with induced negative mood who process high-risk information and gain-framed messages. However, the conditions comprising induced negative mood, low-risk information and loss-frame and induced positive mood, low-risk information and gain-framed messages both also significantly influence homeowners' attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes. These results mostly confirm previous findings in the field of health communication. For practitioners, our study emphasizes that carefully compiled communication measures are a powerful means to encourage precautionary attitudes among homeowners, especially for those with an elevated perceived risk. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.
Cody, Frank J.; Dise, John H., Jr.
This is the first risk management publication for school administrators that attempts to be comprehensive by addressing all potential areas of risk to school districts and offering specific guidelines on how to manage those areas. Chapter 1 gives directions on how to use the manual. Chapter 2 contains a complete overview of risk management,…
Hammer, Theodore F.
This document includes a course plan for Continuous Risk Management taught by the Software Assurance Technology Center along with the Continuous Risk Management Guidebook of the Software Engineering Institute of Carnegie Mellon University and a description of Continuous Risk Management at NASA.
Seisser, M A; Epstein, A L
The staff members of a healthcare organization are recognized as students of risk management. The risk manager, through application of the fundamentals of andragogy (i.e., learning strategies specific to adult learners), is in an advantageous position to assist staff in successfully applying risk management thought processes and related actions.
SUMMARY . ,den.ifying risks 5.3 PROGRAMMATIC RISK SUMMARY o Quantifying risk 5.4 SUPPORTABILITY RISK SUMMARY 55 SCHEDULE RISK SUMMARY * Use of tools to...with Life Cycle Cost Estimates," Defense Systems Management School, (Fort Belvoir). 1973. 207. Lieber, R.S., "New Approaches for Quantifying Risk and
Schaper, Julia; Anhorn, Johannes; Khazai, Bijan; Nüsser, Marcus
Rapid urban growth is a process which can be observed in cities worldwide. Managing these growing urban areas has become a major challenge for both governing bodies and citizens. Situated not only in a highly earthquake and landslide-prone area, but comprising also the cultural and political capital of Nepal, the fast expanding Kathmandu Valley in the Himalayan region is of particular interest. Vulnerability assessment has been an important tool for spatial planning in this already densely populated area. The magnitude 8.4 earthquake of Bihar in 1934 cost 8600 Nepalis their lives, destroyed 20% of the Kathmandu building stock and heavily damaged another 40%. Since then, Kathmandu has grown into a hub with over a million inhabitants. Rapid infrastructure and population growth aggravate the vulnerability conditions, particularly in the core area of Metropolitan Kathmandu. We propose an integrative framework for vulnerability and risk in Kathmandu Valley. In order to move towards a more systemic and integrated approach, we focus on interactions between natural hazards, physically engineered systems and society. High resolution satellite images are used to identify structural vulnerability of the building stock within the study area. Using object-based image analysis, the spatial dynamics of urban growth are assessed and validated using field data. Complementing this is the analysis of socio-economic attributes gained from databases and field surveys. An indicator-based vulnerability and resilience index will be operationalized using multi-attribute value theory and statistical methods such as principal component analysis. The results allow for a socio-economic comparison of places and their relative potential for harm and loss. The objective in this task is to better understand the interactions between nature and society, engineered systems and built environments through the development of an interdisciplinary framework on systemic seismic risk and vulnerability. Data
Webb, Edward M.
Discusses risk management for colleges' cocurricular activities. Discusses tort liability, contributory negligence, and assumption of risk. Provides six concrete steps for managing risks responsibly and professionally: adopting an educational mission statement, assigning risk to others, establishing safety standards, training club advisors,…
Shivers, C. Herbert
Program Managers (PM) can protect program resources and improve chances of success by anticipating, understanding and managing risks. Understanding the range of potential risks helps one to avoid or manage the risks. A PM must choose which risks to accept to reduce fire fighting, must meet the expectations of stakeholders consistently, and avoid falling into costly "black holes" that may open. A good risk management process provides the PM more confidence to seize opportunities save money, meet schedule, even improve relationships with people important to the program. Evidence of managing risk and sound internal controls can mean better support from superiors for the program by building a trust and reputation from being on top of issues. Risk managers have an obligation to provide the PM with the best information possible to allow the benefits to be realized (Small Business Consortium, 2004). The Institute for Chartered Accountants in England and Wales sees very important benefits for companies in providing better information about what they do to assess and manage key business risks. Such information will: a) provide practical forward-looking information; b) reduce the cost of capital; c) encourage better risk management; and d) improve accountability for stewardship, investor protection and the usefulness of financial reporting. We are particularly convinced that enhanced risk reporting will help listed companies obtain capital at the lowest possible cost (The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England &Wales, June 2002). Risk managers can take a significant role in quantifying the success of their department and communicating those figures to executive (program) management levels while pushing for a broader risk management role. Overall, risk managers must show that risk management work matters in the most crucial place-the bottom line- as they prove risk management can be a profit center (Sullivan, 2004).
The 2010 earthquake in Haiti, which killed an estimated 316,000 people, offered many lessons in mass-fatality management (MFM). The dissertation defined MFM in seeking information and in recovery, preservation, identification, and disposition of human remains. Specifically, it examined how mass fatalities were managed in Haiti, how affected…
Information Technology (IT) Security Risk Management is a critical task for the organization to protect against the loss of confidentiality, integrity and availability of IT resources. As systems bgecome more complex and diverse and and attacks from intrusions and malicious content increase, it is becoming increasingly difficult to manage IT security risk. This paper describes a two-pronged approach in addressing IT security risk and risk management in the organization: 1) an institutional enterprise appraoch, and 2) a project life cycle approach.
Rowe, Roger E.
Discusses what facilities management leaders can do to ensure the safety of students and employees. Focuses on six specific tasks, such as detecting hazards and assessing the risks, and offers three rules underlying the application of risk management, including do not accept unnecessary risk. Provides an outline of prevention responsibilities.…
Zhang, Jun; Zhang, Ye; Du, Changhui; Zhu, Shenyue; Huang, Yalin; Tian, Yulian; Chen, Decao; Li, Haimin; Gong, Yao; Zhang, Mengmeng; Gu, Bo
Abstract Teachers and students often suffer from the same disaster. The prevalence of PTSD in students has been given great attention. However, in acting as mentors to students and their families, teachers are more likely to have vicarious and indirect exposure via hearing stories of their aftermath and witnessing the consequences of traumatic events. There are limited data pertaining to the prevalence of PTSD and its risk factors among teachers. A total of 316 teachers from 21 primary and secondary schools in Baoxing County were administered a project-developed questionnaire which included the items regarding demographic characteristics, earthquake-related experiences, somatic discomforts, emotional reactions, support status, and everyday functioning 2 weeks after the Lushan earthquake, and they finished a 1-to-1 telephone interview for addressing the PTSD criteria of the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI) 3 months after the earthquake. The prevalence of PTSD was 24.4% among teachers. Somatic discomforts (odds ratio [OR] 1.89, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06–3.37) were positive risk factors of PTSD. Perceived social support (OR 0.30, 95% CI 0.14–0.62) and being able to calm down (OR 0.25, 95% CI 0.09–0.75) in teaching were negative risk factors. PTSD is commonly seen among teachers after an earthquake, and risk factors of PTSD were identified. These findings may help those providing psychological health programs to find the teachers who are at high risk of PTSD in schools after an earthquake in China. PMID:27442675
Legg, M.; Eguchi, R. T.
The earthquake hazard mitigation goal is to reduce losses due to severe natural events. The first step is to conduct a Seismic Risk Assessment consisting of 1) hazard estimation, 2) vulnerability analysis, 3) exposure compilation. Seismic hazards include ground deformation, shaking, and inundation. The hazard estimation may be probabilistic or deterministic. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is generally applied to site-specific Risk assessments, but may involve large areas as in a National Seismic Hazard Mapping program. Deterministic hazard assessments are needed for geographically distributed exposure such as lifelines (infrastructure), but may be important for large communities. Vulnerability evaluation includes quantification of fragility for construction or components including personnel. Exposure represents the existing or planned construction, facilities, infrastructure, and population in the affected area. Risk (expected loss) is the product of the quantified hazard, vulnerability (damage algorithm), and exposure which may be used to prepare emergency response plans, retrofit existing construction, or use community planning to avoid hazards. The risk estimate provides data needed to acquire earthquake insurance to assist with effective recovery following a severe event. Earthquake Scenarios used in Deterministic Risk Assessments provide detailed information on where hazards may be most severe, what system components are most susceptible to failure, and to evaluate the combined effects of a severe earthquake to the whole system or community. Casualties (injuries and death) have been the primary factor in defining building codes for seismic-resistant construction. Economic losses may be equally significant factors that can influence proactive hazard mitigation. Large urban earthquakes may produce catastrophic losses due to a cascading of effects often missed in PSHA. Economic collapse may ensue if damaged workplaces, disruption of utilities, and
Means, J. D.
Public perception of risk is key in pre-disaster preparation. Despite admonitions from emergency planners, people often fail to take reasonable precautions. But if emergency planners also fail to realize the possibility of a particular disaster scenario, there is very little chance that the public will plan for it. In Southern California there is a well-known risk associated with earthquakes, and it would be difficult to find anyone that didn't understand that the region was subject to risk from earthquakes. On the other hand, few, if any people consider the risk associated with tropical storms or hurricanes. This is reasonable considering people have always been told that the west coast of the United States is immune from hurricanes due to the cold water associated with the California Current, and the hazard of earthquakes is fairly obvious to anyone that has lived the for a while. Such an attitude is probably justifiable for most of Southern California, but it's unclear whether this is true for the San Diego region: destructive earthquakes are historically rare, and there is good evidence that the region was affected by a Category 1 hurricane in 1858. Indeed, during the last 70 years, more people have died from tropical cyclones in Calfornia's southernmost counties (San Diego and Imperial) than have died from earthquakes. In this paper we compare the relative risks from these two different types of disasters for the San Diego region, and attempt to answer why one type of hazard is emphasized in public planning and the other is neglected.
Ayele, Atalay; Midzi, Vunganai; Ateba, Bekoa; Mulabisana, Thifhelimbilu; Marimira, Kwangwari; Hlatywayo, Dumisani J.; Akpan, Ofonime; Amponsah, Paulina; Georges, Tuluka M.; Durrheim, Ray
Large magnitude earthquakes have been observed in Sub-Saharan Africa in the recent past, such as the Machaze event of 2006 (Mw, 7.0) in Mozambique and the 2009 Karonga earthquake (Mw 6.2) in Malawi. The December 13, 1910 earthquake (Ms = 7.3) in the Rukwa rift (Tanzania) is the largest of all instrumentally recorded events known to have occurred in East Africa. The overall earthquake hazard in the region is on the lower side compared to other earthquake prone areas in the globe. However, the risk level is high enough for it to receive attention of the African governments and the donor community. The latest earthquake hazard map for the sub-Saharan Africa was done in 1999 and updating is long overdue as several development activities in the construction industry is booming allover sub-Saharan Africa. To this effect, regional seismologists are working together under the GEM (Global Earthquake Model) framework to improve incomplete, inhomogeneous and uncertain catalogues. The working group is also contributing to the UNESCO-IGCP (SIDA) 601 project and assessing all possible sources of data for the catalogue as well as for the seismotectonic characteristics that will help to develop a reasonable hazard model in the region. In the current progress, it is noted that the region is more seismically active than we thought. This demands the coordinated effort of the regional experts to systematically compile all available information for a better output so as to mitigate earthquake risk in the sub-Saharan Africa.
Xie, Ying-jie; Xu, Xing-gang
Based on the practices of the risk management activities by Chinese medical device manufacturers and theoretical study of the latest international standard ISO 14971:2007, this article analyses the risk management in medical device manufacturing industry by introducing the status quo of applications, four requirements at operational stages, and future trends of development. Methods and suggestions are therefore given to medical device manufacturers for risk management.
Risk Management Using Project Recon UNCLASSIFIED: Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Bonnie Leece... Project Recon Lead What is Project Recon? • A web-based GOTS tool designed to capture, manage, and link Risks, Issues, and Opportunities in a...centralized database. • Project Recon (formerly Risk Recon) is designed to be used by all Program Management Offices, Integrated Project Teams and any
Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina
EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.
manaOptimizing risk to information to protect the enterprise as well as to satisfy government and industry mandates is a core function of most information security departments. Risk management is the discipline that is focused on assessing, mitigating, monitoring and optimizing risks to information. Risk assessments and analyses are critical…
Donald G. MacGregor; Armando González-Cabán
Large fires pose risks to a number of important values, including the ecology, property and the lives of incident responders. A relatively unstudied aspect of fire management is the risks to which incident managers are exposed due to organizational and sociopolitical factors that put them in a position of, for example, potential liability or degradation of their image...
Chen, H.; Zhang, W. C.; Deng, C.; Nie, N.; Yi, L.
All phases of disaster management require up-to-date and accurate information. Different in-situ and remote sensor systems help to monitor dynamic properties such as air quality, water level or inundated areas. The rapid emergence of web-based services has facilitated the collection, dissemination, and cartographic representation of spatial information from the public, giving rise to the idea of using Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) to aid disaster management. In this study, with a brief review on the concept and the development of disaster management, opportunities and challenges for applying VGI in disaster management were explored. The challenges, including Data availability, Data quality, Data management and Legal issues of using VGI for disaster management, were discussed in detail with particular emphasis on the actual needs of disaster management practice in China. Three different approaches to assure VGI data quality, namely the classification and authority design of volunteers, a government-led VGI data acquisition framework for disaster management and a quality assessment system for VGI, respectively, were presented and discussed. As a case study, a prototype of VGI oriented earthquake disaster databank & sharing platform, an open WebGIS system for volunteers and other interested individuals collaboratively create and manage the earthquake disaster related information, was proposed, to provide references for improving the level of earthquake emergency response and disaster mitigation in China.
Sedayo, M. H.; Damanik, R.
Financial institutions included microfinance institutions those lend money to people also face the risk when catastrophe event hit their operation area. Liquidity risk when withdrawal amount and Non Performance Loan (NPL) hiking fast in the same time could hit their cash flow. There are products in market that provide backup fund for this kind of situation. Microfinance institution needs a guideline too make contingency plan in their disaster management program. We develop a probabilistic seismic hazard, index and zonation map as a tool to help in making financial disaster impact reduction program for microfinance in Indonesia. GMPE was used to estimate PGA for each Kabupaten points. PGA to MMI conversion was done by applied empirical relationship. We used loan distribution data from Financial Service Authority and Bank Indonesia as exposure in indexing. Index level from this study could be use as rank of urgency. Probabilistic hazard map was used to pricing two backup scenarios and to make a zonation. We proposed three zones with annual average cost 0.0684‰, 0.4236‰ and 1.4064 for first scenario and 0.3588‰, 2.6112‰, and 6.0816‰ for second scenario.
Oughton, Deborah H
The recognition of the social and ethical aspects of radiation risk management has been an important part of international projects following the Chernobyl accident of 1986. This study comments on the science and policy issues in environmental risk assessment, including the social and ethical dimensions of emergency preparedness and remediation experiences gained from the Chernobyl accident. While the unique situation of Fukushima, combined with an earthquake and tsunami, raises its own social and political challenges, it is hoped that some of the lessons learnt from Chernobyl will be relevant to long-term management of the Fukushima site. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.
Hammer, Theodore F.; Rosenberg, Linda
NPG 7120.5A, "NASA Program and Project Management Processes and Requirements" enacted in April, 1998, requires that "The program or project manager shall apply risk management principles..." The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) at NASA GSFC has been tasked with the responsibility for developing and teaching a systems level course for risk management that provides information on how to comply with this edict. The course was developed in conjunction with the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, then tailored to the NASA systems community. This presentation will briefly discuss the six functions for risk management: (1) Identify the risks in a specific format; (2) Analyze the risk probability, impact/severity, and timeframe; (3) Plan the approach; (4) Track the risk through data compilation and analysis; (5) Control and monitor the risk; (6) Communicate and document the process and decisions. This risk management structure of functions has been taught to projects at all NASA Centers and is being successfully implemented on many projects. This presentation will give project managers the information they need to understand if risk management is to be effectively implemented on their projects at a cost they can afford.
Yuan, S.; Xin, C.; Ying, Z.
In recent years, earthquake disaster occurred frequently in Chinese mainland, the secondary disaster which have been caused by it is more serious in mountainous region. Because of the influence of terrain and geological conditions, the difficulty of earthquake emergency rescue work greatly increased, rescue force is also urged. Yet, it has been studied less on earthquake emergency rescue in mountainous region, the research in existing equipment whether can meet the actual needs of local earthquake emergency rescue is poorly. This paper intends to discuss and solve these problems. Through the mountainous regions Ganzi and Liangshan states in Sichuan field research, we investigated the process of earthquake emergency response and the projects for rescue force after an earthquake, and we also collected and collated local rescue force based data. By consulting experts and statistical analyzing the basic data, there are mainly two problems: The first is about local rescue force, they are poorly equipped and lack in the knowledge of medical help or identify architectural structure. There are no countries to establish a sound financial investment protection mechanism. Also, rescue equipment's updates and maintenance; The second problem is in earthquake emergency rescue progress. In the complicated geologic structure of mountainous regions, traffic and communication may be interrupted by landslides and mud-rock flows after earthquake. The outside rescue force may not arrive in time, rescue equipment was transported by manpower. Because of unknown earthquake disaster information, the local rescue force was deployed unreasonable. From the above, the local government worker should analyze the characteristics of the earthquake disaster in mountainous regions, and research how to improve their earthquake emergency rescue ability. We think they can do that by strengthening and regulating the rescue force structure, enhancing the skills and knowledge, training rescue workers
Budhathoki, Shyam Sundar; Bhattachan, Meika; Castro-Sánchez, Enrique; Sagtani, Reshu Agrawal; Rayamajhi, Rajan Bikram; Rai, Pramila; Sharma, Gaurav
Menstrual hygiene management (MHM) is an essential aspect of hygiene for women and adolescent girls between menarche and menopause. Despite being an important issue concerning women and girls in the menstruating age group MHM is often overlooked in post-disaster responses. Further, there is limited evidence of menstrual hygiene management in humanitarian settings. This study aims to describe the experiences and perceptions of women and adolescent girls on menstrual hygiene management in post-earthquake Nepal. A mixed methods study was carried out among the earthquake affected women and adolescent girls in three villages of Sindhupalchowk district of Nepal. Data was collected using a semi-structured questionnaire that captured experiences and perceptions of respondents on menstrual hygiene management in the aftermath of the Nepal earthquake. Quantitative data were triangulated with in-depth interview regarding respondent's personal experiences of menstrual hygiene management. Menstrual hygiene was rated as the sixth highest overall need and perceived as an immediate need by 18.8% of the respondents. There were 42.8% women & girls who menstruated within first week of the earthquake. Reusable sanitary cloth were used by about 66.7% of the respondents before the earthquake and remained a popular method (76.1%) post-earthquake. None of the respondents reported receiving menstrual adsorbents as relief materials in the first month following the earthquake. Disposable pads (77.8%) were preferred by respondents as they were perceived to be clean and convenient to use. Most respondents (73.5%) felt that reusable sanitary pads were a sustainable choice. Women who were in the age group of 15-34 years (OR = 3.14; CI = (1.07-9.20), did not go to school (OR = 9.68; CI = 2.16-43.33), married (OR = 2.99; CI = 1.22-7.31) and previously used reusable sanitary cloth (OR = 5.82; CI = 2.33-14.55) were more likely to use the reusable sanitary cloth. In
Risk identification is an ongoing activity that takes place during the routine project work flow. Project activities such as programmatic and technical meetings, telecons, reviews, and other forms of communication often bring to light project risks. When this occurs, we record and analyze the risk on a Risk Information Sheet. This process helps the project team identify and cope with project risks throughout the life of the project.
Kossobokov, V. G.; Nekrasova, A.
We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A + B•(6 - M) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L, A characterizes the average annual rate of strong (M = 6) earthquakes, B determines the balance between magnitude ranges, and C estimates the fractal dimension of seismic locus in projection to the Earth surface. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to assess, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity or paleo data), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures. The hazard maps for a given territory change dramatically, when the methodology is applied to a certain size moving time window, e.g. about a decade long for an intermediate-term regional assessment or exponentially increasing intervals for a daily local strong aftershock forecasting. The of dynamical seismic hazard and risks assessment is illustrated by applications to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea and the two-year series of aftershocks of the 11 October 2008 Kurchaloy, Chechnya earthquake which case-history appears to be encouraging for further systematic testing as potential short-term forecasting tool.
Rundle, John B.; Luginbuhl, Molly; Giguere, Alexis; Turcotte, Donald L.
Natural Time ("NT") refers to the concept of using small earthquake counts, for example of M > 3 events, to mark the intervals between large earthquakes, for example M > 6 events. The term was first used by Varotsos et al. (2005) and later by Holliday et al. (2006) in their studies of earthquakes. In this paper, we discuss ideas and applications arising from the use of NT to understand earthquake dynamics, in particular by use of the idea of nowcasting. Nowcasting differs from forecasting, in that the goal of nowcasting is to estimate the current state of the system, rather than the probability of a future event. Rather than focus on an individual earthquake faults, we focus on a defined local geographic region surrounding a particular location. This local region is considered to be embedded in a larger regional setting from which we accumulate the relevant statistics. We apply the nowcasting idea to the practical development of methods to estimate the current state of risk for dozens of the world's seismically exposed megacities, defined as cities having populations of over 1 million persons. We compute a ranking of these cities based on their current nowcast value, and discuss the advantages and limitations of this approach. We note explicitly that the nowcast method is not a model, in that there are no free parameters to be fit to data. Rather, the method is simply a presentation of statistical data, which the user can interpret. Among other results, we find, for example, that the current nowcast ranking of the Los Angeles region is comparable to its ranking just prior to the January 17, 1994 Northridge earthquake.
Three relatively recent examples of earthquakes can be used as a background for suggesting geoethical views into any prediction accompanied by a risk analysis. ĹAquila earthquake (Italy - 2009): ĹAquila was largely destroyed by earthquakes in 1315, 1319, 1452, 1461, 1501, 1646, 1703 (until that time altogether about 3000 victims) and 1786 (about 6000 victims of this event only). The city was rebuilt and remained stable until October 2008, when tremors began again. From January 1 through April 5, 2009, additional 304 tremors were reported. When after measuring increased levels of radon emitted from the ground a local citizen (for many years working for the Italian National Institute of Astrophysics) predicted a major earthquake on Italian television, he was accused of being alarmist. Italy's National Commission for Prediction and Prevention of Major Risks met in L'Aquila for one hour on March 31, 2009, without really evaluating and characterising the risks that were present. On April 6 a 6.3 magnitude earthquake struck Aquila and nearby towns, killing 309 people and injuring more than 1,500. The quake also destroyed roughly 20,000 buildings, temporarily displacing another 65,000 people. In July 2010, prosecutor Fabio Picuti charged the Commission members with manslaughter and negligence for failing to warn the public of the impending risk. Many international organizations joined the chorus of criticism wrongly interpreting the accusation and sentence at the first stage as a problem of impossibility to predict earthquakes. - The Eyjafjallajokull volcano eruption (Iceland - 2010) is a reminder that in our globalized, interconnected world because of the increased sensibility of the new technology even a relatively small natural disaster may cause unexpected range of problems. - Earthquake and tsunami (Japan - 2011) - the most powerful known earthquake ever to have hit Japan on March 11. Whereas the proper earthquake with the magnitude of 9.0 has caused minimum of
Abad Lopez, Carlos Adrian
Current electricity infrastructure is being stressed from several directions -- high demand, unreliable supply, extreme weather conditions, accidents, among others. Infrastructure planners have, traditionally, focused on only the cost of the system; today, resilience and sustainability are increasingly becoming more important. In this dissertation, we develop computational tools for efficiently managing electricity resources to help create a more reliable and sustainable electrical grid. The tools we present in this work will help electric utilities coordinate demand to allow the smooth and large scale integration of renewable sources of energy into traditional grids, as well as provide infrastructure planners and operators in developing countries a framework for making informed planning and control decisions in the presence of uncertainty. Demand-side management is considered as the most viable solution for maintaining grid stability as generation from intermittent renewable sources increases. Demand-side management, particularly demand response (DR) programs that attempt to alter the energy consumption of customers either by using price-based incentives or up-front power interruption contracts, is more cost-effective and sustainable in addressing short-term supply-demand imbalances when compared with the alternative that involves increasing fossil fuel-based fast spinning reserves. An essential step in compensating participating customers and benchmarking the effectiveness of DR programs is to be able to independently detect the load reduction from observed meter data. Electric utilities implementing automated DR programs through direct load control switches are also interested in detecting the reduction in demand to efficiently pinpoint non-functioning devices to reduce maintenance costs. We develop sparse optimization methods for detecting a small change in the demand for electricity of a customer in response to a price change or signal from the utility
Marios Karagiannis, Georgios; Synolakis, Costas
Greece is vulnerable to tsunamis, due to the length of the coastline, its islands and its geographical proximity to the Hellenic Arc, an active subduction zone. Historically, about 10% of all world tsunamis occur in the Mediterranean region. Here we review existing tsunami disaster risk management capabilities in Greece. We analyze capabilities across the disaster management continuum, including prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. Specifically, we focus on issues like legal requirements, stakeholders, hazard mitigation practices, emergency operations plans, public awareness and education, community-based approaches and early-warning systems. Our research is based on a review of existing literature and official documentation, on previous projects, as well as on interviews with civil protection officials in Greece. In terms of tsunami disaster prevention and hazard mitigation, the lack of tsunami inundation maps, except for some areas in Crete, makes it quite difficult to get public support for hazard mitigation practices. Urban and spatial planning tools in Greece allow the planner to take into account hazards and establish buffer zones near hazard areas. However, the application of such ordinances at the local and regional levels is often difficult. Eminent domain is not supported by law and there are no regulatory provisions regarding tax abatement as a disaster prevention tool. Building codes require buildings and other structures to withstand lateral dynamic earthquake loads, but there are no provisions for resistance to impact loading from water born debris Public education about tsunamis has increased during the last half-decade but remains sporadic. In terms of disaster preparedness, Greece does have a National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC) and is a Member of UNESCO's Tsunami Program for North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (NEAM) region. Several exercises have been organized in the framework of the NEAM Tsunami Warning
This paper describes the NASA Risk Management Program established by the Headquarters Office of Safety and Mission Quality (MSQ). Current agency policy is outlined, risk management assistance to the field is described, and examples are given of independent risk assessments conducted by SMQ. The motivation for and the structure of the program is placed in the historical context of pre- and post-Challenger environments.
Boxberger, Tobias; Fleming, Kevin; Pittore, Massimiliano; Parolai, Stefano; Pilz, Marco; Mikulla, Stefan
The Multi-Parameter Wireless Sensing (MPwise) system is an innovative instrumental design that allows different sensor types to be combined with relatively high-performance computing and communications components. These units, which incorporate off-the-shelf components, can undertake complex information integration and processing tasks at the individual unit or node level (when used in a network), allowing the establishment of networks that are linked by advanced, robust and rapid communications routing and network topologies. The system (and its predecessors) was originally designed for earthquake risk mitigation, including earthquake early warning (EEW), rapid response actions, structural health monitoring, and site-effect characterization. For EEW, MPwise units are capable of on-site, decentralized, independent analysis of the recorded ground motion and based on this, may issue an appropriate warning, either by the unit itself or transmitted throughout a network by dedicated alarming procedures. The multi-sensor capabilities of the system allow it to be instrumented with standard strong- and weak-motion sensors, broadband sensors, MEMS (namely accelerometers), cameras, temperature and humidity sensors, and GNSS receivers. In this work, the MPwise hardware, software and communications schema are described, as well as an overview of its possible applications. While focusing on earthquake risk mitigation actions, the aim in the future is to expand its capabilities towards a more multi-hazard and risk mitigation role. Overall, MPwise offers considerable flexibility and has great potential in contributing to natural hazard risk mitigation.
Boxberger, Tobias; Fleming, Kevin; Pittore, Massimiliano; Parolai, Stefano; Pilz, Marco; Mikulla, Stefan
The Multi-Parameter Wireless Sensing (MPwise) system is an innovative instrumental design that allows different sensor types to be combined with relatively high-performance computing and communications components. These units, which incorporate off-the-shelf components, can undertake complex information integration and processing tasks at the individual unit or node level (when used in a network), allowing the establishment of networks that are linked by advanced, robust and rapid communications routing and network topologies. The system (and its predecessors) was originally designed for earthquake risk mitigation, including earthquake early warning (EEW), rapid response actions, structural health monitoring, and site-effect characterization. For EEW, MPwise units are capable of on-site, decentralized, independent analysis of the recorded ground motion and based on this, may issue an appropriate warning, either by the unit itself or transmitted throughout a network by dedicated alarming procedures. The multi-sensor capabilities of the system allow it to be instrumented with standard strong- and weak-motion sensors, broadband sensors, MEMS (namely accelerometers), cameras, temperature and humidity sensors, and GNSS receivers. In this work, the MPwise hardware, software and communications schema are described, as well as an overview of its possible applications. While focusing on earthquake risk mitigation actions, the aim in the future is to expand its capabilities towards a more multi-hazard and risk mitigation role. Overall, MPwise offers considerable flexibility and has great potential in contributing to natural hazard risk mitigation. PMID:29053608
Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor
A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model's algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.
ZARÉ, Mehdi; NAZMAZAR, Behnaz
An earthquake was happened on 23 October 2011 in Van, Turkey (Mw7.2) at the eastern most area of Anatolian plateau and in the neighborhood of Iranian border (West Azerbaijan Province). The study was performed based on field and office observations and has been focused on the process of disaster management in Turkey after the 23 October 2011 earthquake. We surveyed the quake from the view point of disaster management, and study the relief process during and after the catastrophe. The day-to-day disaster management procedure in seventeen days after the event has been scrutinized as well. The number of victims and extent of damage in Van earthquake was relatively limited according to the national experiences and recent modernization of infrastructures in Turkey. The Van earthquake caused 644 deaths and demolishing of several buildings in the cities of Van and Erciş in Van Province. The performance of the government organizations is however criticized based on their response to the event. PMID:23515082
DePaoli, Marilyn M.; And Others
Stanford University's use of a risk assessment methodology to improve the management of systems development projects is discussed. After examining the concepts of hazard, peril, and risk as they relate to the system development process, three ways to assess risk are covered: size, structure, and technology. The overall objective for Stanford…
Damages and loss of life sustained during an earthquake results from falling structures and flying glass and objects. To address these and other problems, new information technology and systems as a means can improve crisis management and crisis response. The most important factor for managing the crisis depends on our readiness before disasters by useful data. This study aimed to determine the Earthquake Information Management System (EIMS) in India, Afghanistan and Iran, and describe how we can reduce destruction by EIMS in crisis management. This study was an analytical comparison in which data were collected by questionnaire, observation and checklist. The population was EIMS in selected countries. Sources of information were staff in related organizations, scientific documentations and Internet. For data analysis, Criteria Rating Technique, Delphi Technique and descriptive methods were used. Findings showed that EIMS in India (Disaster Information Management System), Afghanistan (Management Information for Natural Disasters) and Iran are decentralized. The Indian state has organized an expert group to inspect issues about disaster decreasing strategy. In Iran, there was no useful and efficient EIMS to evaluate earthquake information. According to outcomes, it is clear that an information system can only influence decisions if it is relevant, reliable and available for the decision-makers in a timely fashion. Therefore, it is necessary to reform and design a model. The model contains responsible organizations and their functions.
Context: Damages and loss of life sustained during an earthquake results from falling structures and flying glass and objects. To address these and other problems, new information technology and systems as a means can improve crisis management and crisis response. The most important factor for managing the crisis depends on our readiness before disasters by useful data. Aims: This study aimed to determine the Earthquake Information Management System (EIMS) in India, Afghanistan and Iran, and describe how we can reduce destruction by EIMS in crisis management. Materials and Methods: This study was an analytical comparison in which data were collected by questionnaire, observation and checklist. The population was EIMS in selected countries. Sources of information were staff in related organizations, scientific documentations and Internet. For data analysis, Criteria Rating Technique, Delphi Technique and descriptive methods were used. Results: Findings showed that EIMS in India (Disaster Information Management System), Afghanistan (Management Information for Natural Disasters) and Iran are decentralized. The Indian state has organized an expert group to inspect issues about disaster decreasing strategy. In Iran, there was no useful and efficient EIMS to evaluate earthquake information. Conclusions: According to outcomes, it is clear that an information system can only influence decisions if it is relevant, reliable and available for the decision-makers in a timely fashion. Therefore, it is necessary to reform and design a model. The model contains responsible organizations and their functions. PMID:23555130
Roces, M. C.; White, M. E.; Dayrit, M. M.; Durkin, M. E.
On 16 July 1990, an earthquake measuring 7.7 on the Richter scale struck the island of Luzon, Philippines. A case-control study was carried out to identify the risk factors for earthquake-related injuries and at the same time observations were made on the rescue efforts. Being hit by falling objects was the leading cause of injury (34%). Those injured during the tremor were more likely to have been inside buildings constructed of concrete or mixed materials (odds ratio, 2.6; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.7-4.1) and to have been on the middle floors of multistorey buildings (odds ratio, 3.4; 95% CI, 2.2-5.5). Leaving a building during the earthquake was a protective behaviour (odds ratio, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.2-0.8). Of the 235 survivors who were trapped and rescued alive from the rubble, 99% were rescued within 48 hours of the impact of the tremor. These findings should prove useful in developing seismic safety codes. People should be taught proper evasive actions to take during earthquakes, and training in basic first aid and methods of rescue should be an integral part of community preparedness programmes. PMID:1394785
Benito, Belen; Gaspar, Jorge; Rivas, Alicia; Quiros, Ligia; Ruiz, Sandra; Hernandez, Roman; Torres, Yolanda; Staller, Sandra
The Murcia Region, is one of the highest seimic activity of Spain, located SE Iberian Peninsula. A system of active faults are included in the región, where the most recent damaging eartquakes took place in our country: 1999, 2002, 2005 and 2011. The last one ocurred in Lorca, causing 9 deads and notably material losses, including the artistic stock. The seismic emergency plann of the Murcia Region was developed in 2006, based of the results of the risk Project RISMUR I, which among other conslusions pointed out Lorca as one of the municipalities with highest risk in the province,. After the Lorca earthquake in 2011, a revisión of the previous study has been developed through the Project RISMUR II, including data of this earthquake , as well as updted Data Base of: seismicity, active faults, strong motion records, cadastre, vulnerability, etc. In adittion, the new study includes, some methodology innovations: modelization of faults as independent units for hazard assessment, analytic methods for risk estimations using data of the earthquake for calibration of capacity and fragility curves. In this work the results of RISMUR II are presented, which are compared with those reached in RISMUR I. The main conclusions are: Increasing of the hazard along the central system fault SW-NE (Alhama de Murcia, Totana nad Carracoy), which involve highest expected damages in the nearest populations to these faults: Lorca, Totana, Alcantarilla and Murcia.
to the racial differences in cardiovascular risk and events among women. High levels of socioeconomic stress, higher dietary fat intake and sedentary ... lifestyle are more prevalent among black than white women. The proposed study will address the issue of whether the cluster of risk factors for
A catastrophe -cat- bond is an instrument used by insurance and reinsurance companies, by governments or by groups of nations to cede catastrophic risk to the financial markets, which are capable of supplying cover for highly destructive events, surpassing the typical capacity of traditional reinsurance contracts. Parametric cat bonds, a specific type of cat bonds, use trigger mechanisms or indices that depend on physical event parameters published by respected third parties in order to determine whether a part or the entire bond principal is to be paid for a certain event. First generation cat bonds, or cat-in-a-box bonds, display a trigger mechanism that consists of a set of geographic zones in which certain conditions need to be met by an earthquake’s magnitude and depth in order to trigger payment of the bond principal. Second generation cat bonds use an index formulation that typically consists of a sum of products of a set of weights by a polynomial function of the ground motion variables reported by a geographically distributed seismic network. These instruments are especially appealing to developing countries with incipient insurance industries wishing to cede catastrophic losses to the financial markets because the payment trigger mechanism is transparent and does not involve the parties ceding or accepting the risk, significantly reducing moral hazard. In order to be successful in the market, however, parametric cat bonds have typically been required to specify relatively simple trigger conditions. The consequence of such simplifications is the increase of basis risk. This risk represents the possibility that the trigger mechanism fails to accurately capture the actual losses of a catastrophic event, namely that it does not trigger for a highly destructive event or vice versa, that a payment of the bond principal is caused by an event that produced insignificant losses. The first case disfavors the sponsor who was seeking cover for its losses while the
This Assessment was conducted to improve the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) by providing NEHRP agencies with information that supports their user-oriented setting of crosscutting priorities in the NEHRP strategic planning process. The primary objective of this Assessment was to take a ``snapshot`` evaluation of the needs of selected users throughout the major program elements of NEHRP. Secondary objectives were to conduct an assessment of the knowledge that exists (or is being developed by NEHRP) to support earthquake risk reduction, and to begin a process of evaluating how NEHRP is meeting user needs. An identification of NEHRP`s strengths alsomore » resulted from the effort, since those strengths demonstrate successful methods that may be useful to NEHRP in the future. These strengths are identified in the text, and many of them represent important achievements since the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act was passed in 1977.« less
Saraò, Angela; Barnaba, Carla; Peruzza, Laura
The knowledge of the seismic history of its own territory, the understanding of physical phenomena in response to an earthquake, the changes in the cultural heritage following a strong earthquake, the learning of actions to be taken during and after an earthquake, are piece of information that contribute to keep focus on the seismic hazard and to implement strategies for seismic risk mitigation. The training of new generations, today more than ever subject to rapid forgetting of past events, becomes therefore a key element to increase the perception that earthquakes happened and can happen at anytime and that mitigation actions are the only means to ensure the safety and to reduce damages and human losses. Since several years our institute (OGS) is involved in activities to raise awareness of education on earthquake. We aim to implement education programs with the goal of addressing a critical approach to seismic hazard reduction, differentiating the types of activities according to the age of the students. However, being such kind of activity unfunded, we can act at now only on a very limited number of schools per year. To be effective, the inclusion of the seismic risk issues in school curricula requires specific time and appropriate approaches when planning activities. For this reason, we involve also the teachers as proponents of activities and we encourage them to keep alive memories and discussion on earthquake in the classes. During the past years we acted mainly in the schools of the Friuli Venezia Giulia area (NE Italy), that is an earthquake prone area struck in 1976 by a destructive seismic event (Ms=6.5). We organized short training courses for teachers, we lectured classes, and we led laboratory activities with students. Indeed, being well known that students enjoy classes more when visual and active learning are joined, we propose a program that is composed by seminars, demonstrations and hands-on activities in the classrooms; for high school students
Perera, Jeevan S.
Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks--risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements.. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner, Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.
Nakaya, Naoki; Nakamura, Tomohiro; Tsuchiya, Naho; Narita, Akira; Tsuji, Ichiro; Hozawa, Atsushi; Tomita, Hiroaki
Since the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, many of the affected have been forced to live in temporary housing or at a relative's house. Special attention needs to be paid to the negative health impacts resulting from such changes in living conditions. This study examined the association between future housing prospects and the risk of psychological distress 1 year after the earthquake. In 2012, a questionnaire was completed by a cross-sectional study of people aged 20 years or older living in Shichigahama Town, Miyagi, northeastern Japan, an area that had been severely inundated by the tsunami. Future housing prospects post-earthquake were classified into four categories: already settled in permanent housing, moving to new housing, under consideration, or unable to make any plans. Psychological distress was evaluated using the Kessler 6 scale, defined as ≥5 points out of 24. We performed multiple logistic regression analyses adjusted for potential confounding factors. Of the 3614 individuals studied, subjects whose future housing was under consideration (odds ratio [OR] = 2.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.6-2.7, P < 0.01) and those who were unable to make any future housing plans (OR = 1.9, 95%CI = 1.4-2.5, P < 0.01) exhibited a significantly higher risk of psychological distress compared with subjects who had already settled in permanent housing. In this study, subjects whose future housing prospects were under consideration and those who were unable to make any future housing plans were at a higher risk of psychological distress 1 year after the earthquake disaster. © 2015 The Authors. Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences © 2015 Japanese Society of Psychiatry and Neurology.
Chen, Enqiang; Deng, Linyu; Liu, Zigui; Zhu, Xia; Chen, Xuebing; Tang, Hong
Gas gangrene is an emergency condition, which usually develops after injuries or surgery. This study was designed to investigate clinical characteristics, appropriate therapy, and effective control of nosocomial cross-infection of gas gangrene in Wenchuan earthquake victims. Data on diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of confirmed, suspected, or highly suspected gas gangrene were collected. Sixty-seven (2.41%) cases of suspected gas gangrene were found, in which 32 cases were highly suspected of gas gangrene and 5 cases were confirmed by culture of Clostridium perfringens. Thereof, injury sites were mainly located on the limbs, and typical indications, including crepitation, severe localized pain, swelling, wound discoloration, dark red or black necrotic muscle, foul smell as well as different degrees of systemic toxic performance were common among them. After hospitalization, all patients were isolated and had surgery quickly to remove dead, damaged or infected tissue. The wounds were also exposed for drainage and washed or padded with 3% liquid hydrogen peroxide for disinfection before all diagnostic test results were available. Additionally, high doses of antibiotics (mainly penicillin) were given for the prevention of infection, and supportive therapy was applied for corresponding symptoms control. Among those cases, no fatality was reported. In summary, in post-disaster emergency relief, the diagnosis of gas gangrene should be primarily based on clinical manifestations; while patient isolation, wound debridement and disinfection, as well as antibiotics treatment, is the main measures for proper treatment and control of nosocomial infection for gas gangrene.
Smith, H. E.
Present software development accomplishments are indicative of the emerging interest in and increasing efforts to provide risk assessment backbone tools in the manned spacecraft engineering community. There are indications that similar efforts are underway in the chemical processes industry and are probably being planned for other high risk ground base environments. It appears that complex flight systems intended for extended manned planetary exploration will drive this technology.
Maniccia, M D
The responsibility for carrying financial risk for medical coverage has migrated from individuals to insurers to employers to providers, without finding a satisfactory home. Each shift further complicates the health care infrastructure, as other responsibilities in the management of benefits and provision of care gravitate to the stakeholder who accepts risk. The social imperative to broaden coverage is forcing a change in the mechanisms of risk management--from avoiding high-risk patients, to managing those patients to better outcomes. In this paper we seek to identify objectively the most appropriate party to carry the financial risk of medical coverage, consider what characteristics are necessary to make that a practical and enduring solution, and examine the secondary effects of the structure required to support that solution.
Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.
Bernknopf, R.L.; Brookshire, D.S.; Thayer, M.A.
Earthquake and volcano hazard notices were issued for the Mammoth Lakes, California area by the U.S. Geological Survey under the authority granted by the Disaster Relief Act of 1974. The effects on investment, recretion visitation, and risk perceptionsare explored. The hazard notices did not affect recreation visitation, although investment was affected. A perceived loss in the market value of homes was documented. Risk perceptions were altered for property owners. Communication of the probability of an event over time would enhance hazard notices as a policy instrument and would mitigate unnecessary market perturbations. ?? 1990.
Kossobokov, Vladimir; Nekrasova, Anastasia
Losses from natural disasters continue to increase mainly due to poor understanding by majority of scientific community, decision makers and public, the three components of Risk, i.e., Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Contemporary Science is responsible for not coping with challenging changes of Exposures and their Vulnerability inflicted by growing population, its concentration, etc., which result in a steady increase of Losses from Natural Hazards. Scientists owe to Society for lack of knowledge, education, and communication. In fact, Contemporary Science can do a better job in disclosing Natural Hazards, assessing Risks, and delivering such knowledge in advance catastrophic events. Any kind of risk estimates R(g) at location g results from a convolution of the natural hazard H(g) with the exposed object under consideration O(g) along with its vulnerability V(O(g)). Note that g could be a point, or a line, or a cell on or under the Earth surface and that distribution of hazards, as well as objects of concern and their vulnerability, could be time-dependent. There exist many different risk estimates even if the same object of risk and the same hazard are involved. It may result from the different laws of convolution, as well as from different kinds of vulnerability of an object of risk under specific environments and conditions. Both conceptual issues must be resolved in a multidisciplinary problem oriented research performed by specialists in the fields of hazard, objects of risk, and object vulnerability, i.e. specialists in earthquake engineering, social sciences and economics. To illustrate this general concept, we first construct seismic hazard assessment maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE). The parameters A, B, and C of USLE, i.e. log N(M,L) = A - B•(M-6) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an area of linear size L, are used to estimate the expected maximum
A general methodology is presented for conducting an analysis of the various aspects of the hazards associated with the storage and transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) which should be considered during the planning stages of a typical LNG ship terminal. The procedure includes the performance of a hazards and system analysis of the proposed site, a probability analysis of accident scenarios and safety impacts, an analysis of the consequences of credible accidents such as tanker accidents, spills and fires, the assessment of risks and the design and evaluation of risk mitigation measures.
Gori, Paula L.
INTERACTIVE WORKSHOPS: ESSENTIAL ELEMENTS OF THE EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS RESEARCH AND REDUCTION PROGRAM IN THE WASATCH FRONT, UTAH: Interactive workshops provided the forum and stimulus necessary to foster collaboration among the participants in the multidisciplinary, 5-yr program of earthquake hazards reduction in the Wasatch Front, Utah. The workshop process validated well-documented social science theories on the importance of interpersonal interaction, including interaction between researchers and users of research to increase the probability that research will be relevant to the user's needs and, therefore, more readily used. REDUCING EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS IN UTAH: THE CRUCIAL CONNECTION BETWEEN RESEARCHERS AND PRACTITIONERS: Complex scientific and engineering studies must be translated for and transferred to nontechnical personnel for use in reducing earthquake hazards in Utah. The three elements needed for effective translation, likelihood of occurrence, location, and severity of potential hazards, and the three elements needed for effective transfer, delivery, assistance, and encouragement, are described and illustrated for Utah. The importance of evaluating and revising earthquake hazard reduction programs and their components is emphasized. More than 30 evaluations of various natural hazard reduction programs and techniques are introduced. This report was prepared for research managers, funding sources, and evaluators of the Utah earthquake hazard reduction program who are concerned about effectiveness. An overview of the Utah program is provided for those researchers, engineers, planners, and decisionmakers, both public and private, who are committed to reducing human casualties, property damage, and interruptions of socioeconomic systems. PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF EARTHQUAKE MITIGATION POLICIES ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT IN UTAH: The earthquake hazard potential along the Wasatch Front in Utah has been well defined by a number of scientific and
Oki, S.; Koketsu, K.
The ANSA web news titled "'No L'Aquila quake risk' experts probed in Italy in June 2010" gave a shock to the Japanese seismological community. For the previous 6 months from the L'Aquila earthquake which occurred on 6th April 2009, the seismicity in that region had been active. Having become even more active and reached to magnitude 4 on 30th March, the government held the Major Risks Committee, which is a part of the Civil Protection Department and is tasked with forecasting possible risks by collating and analyzing data from a variety of sources and making preventative recommendations. According to this ANSA news, the committee did not insist on the risk of damaging earthquake at the press conference held after the committee. Six days later, however, a magnitude 6.3 earthquake attacked L'Aquila and killed 308 people. On 3rd June next year, the prosecutors started on the investigation after complaints of the victims that far more people would have fled their homes that night if there had been no reassurances of the Major Risks Committee in the previous week. Lessons from this issue are of significant importance. Science communication is now in currency, and more efforts are made to reach out to the public and policy makers. But when we deal with disaster sciences, it contains a much bigger proportion of risk communication. A similar incident had happened with the outbreak of the BSE back in the late 1980's. Many of the measures taken according to the Southwood Committee are laudable, but for one - science back then could not show whether or not it was contagious to humans, and is written in the committee minutes that "it is unlikely to infect humans". If read thoroughly, it does refer to the risk, but since it had not been stressed, the government started a campaign saying that "UK beef is safe". In the presentation, we review the L'Aquila affair referring to our interviews to some of the committee members and the Civil Protection Department, and also introduce
Joshi, G.; Gurung, D. R.
A powerful 7.8 magnitude earthquake struck Nepal at 06:11 UTC on 25 April 2015. Several subsequent aftershocks were deadliest earthquake in recent history of Nepal. In total about 9000 people died and 22,300 people were injured, and lives of eight million people, almost one-third of the population of Nepal was effected. The event lead to massive campaigned to gather data and information on damage and loss using remote sensing, field inspection, and community survey. Information on distribution of relief materials is other important domain of information necessary for equitable relief distribution. Pre and post-earthquake high resolution satellite images helped in damage area assessment and mapping. Many national and international agencies became active to generate and fill the information vacuum. The challenges included data access bottleneck due to lack of good IT infrastructure; inconsistent products due to absence of standard mapping guidelines; dissemination challenges due to absence of Standard Operating Protocols and single information gateway. These challenges were negating opportunities offered by improved earth observation data availability, increasing engagement of volunteers for emergency mapping, and centralized emergency coordination practice. This paper highlights critical practical challenges encountered during emergency mapping and information management during the earthquake in Nepal. There is greater need to address such challenges to effectively use technological leverages that recent advancement in space science, IT and mapping domain provides.
Purpose: To explain how progressive companies are using a combination of knowledge and risk management (KRM) systems and techniques in order to help them to prevent, or respond most effectively to, ethical or reputation-damaging incidents. Design/methodology/approach: The paper explains KRM, develops a corporate integrity framework, and then…
Hada, Yasunori; Kondo, Shinya; Meguro, Kimiro; Ohara, Miho; Zama, Shinsaku; Endo, Makoto; Kobayashi, Keiji; Suzuki, Takeyasu; Noda, Itsuki; Shimora, Hiroki; Takeuchi, Ikuo; Kobayashi, Satoshi; Arakawa, Junpei; Yoshimoto, Kenichi
For realizing cross-sectional inform ation sharing in the Tokyo metropolitan area, we develop disaster management applications to reduce negative impact due to vital issue in phase of initial response, and cooperation of those applications are demonstrated toward public officials in charge of disaster management. The demonstration of information sharing among disaster related organizations focusing on issues about simultaneous multiple post-earthquake fires and rescue operations after an earthquake directly underneath Tokyo are reported.
Coleman, Justin; Sabharwall, Piyush
Nuclear power plants should safely operate during normal operations and maintain core-cooling capabilities during off-normal events, including external hazards (such as flooding and earthquakes). Management of external hazards to expectable levels of risk is critical to maintaining nuclear facility and nuclear power plant safety. Seismic risk is determined by convolving the seismic hazard with seismic fragilities (capacity of systems, structures, and components). Seismic isolation (SI) is one protective measure showing promise to minimize seismic risk. Current SI designs (used in commercial industry) reduce horizontal earthquake loads and protect critical infrastructure from the potentially destructive effects of large earthquakes. The benefitmore » of SI application in the nuclear industry is being recognized and SI systems have been proposed in American Society of Civil Engineer Standard 4, ASCE-4, to be released in the winter of 2014, for light water reactors facilities using commercially available technology. The intent of ASCE-4 is to provide criteria for seismic analysis of safety related nuclear structures such that the responses to design basis seismic events, computed in accordance with this standard, will have a small likelihood of being exceeded. The U.S. nuclear industry has not implemented SI to date; a seismic isolation gap analysis meeting was convened on August 19, 2014, to determine progress on implementing SI in the U.S. nuclear industry. The meeting focused on the systems and components that could benefit from SI. As a result, this article highlights the gaps identified at this meeting.« less
Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor
Background A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities’ preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. Methods An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model’s algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. Results the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. Conclusion The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties. PMID:26959647
Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Hosford, Steven; Douglas, John; Serrano, Jean-Jacques; Coraboeuf, Damien; Comte, Jérémie
Hazard analysts and risk managers of natural perils, such as earthquakes, landslides and floods, need to access information from sensor networks surveying their regions of interest. However, currently information about these networks is difficult to obtain and is available in varying formats, thereby restricting accesses and consequently possibly leading to decision-making based on limited information. As a response to this issue, state-of-the-art interoperable catalogues are being currently developed within the framework of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) workplan. This article provides an overview of the prototype catalogue that was developed to improve access to information about the sensor networks surveying geological hazards (geohazards), such as earthquakes, landslides and volcanoes. PMID:27879915
Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Hosford, Steven; Douglas, John; Serrano, Jean-Jacques; Coraboeuf, Damien; Comte, Jérémie
Hazard analysts and risk managers of natural perils, such as earthquakes, landslides and floods, need to access information from sensor networks surveying their regions of interest. However, currently information about these networks is difficult to obtain and is available in varying formats, thereby restricting accesses and consequently possibly leading to decision-making based on limited information. As a response to this issue, state-of-the-art interoperable catalogues are being currently developed within the framework of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) workplan. This article provides an overview of the prototype catalogue that was developed to improve access to information about the sensor networks surveying geological hazards (geohazards), such as earthquakes, landslides and volcanoes.
Wald, D. J.
When is communicating scientific modeling uncertainty effective? One viewpoint is that the answer depends on whether one is communicating hazard or risk: hazards have quantifiable uncertainties (which, granted, are often ignored), yet risk uncertainties compound uncertainties inherent in the hazard with those of the risk calculations, and are thus often larger. Larger, yet more meaningful: since risk entails societal impact of some form, consumers of such information tend to have a better grasp of the potential uncertainty ranges for loss information than they do for less-tangible hazard values (like magnitude, peak acceleration, or stream flow). I present two examples that compare and contrast communicating uncertainty for earthquake hazard and risk products. The first example is the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) ShakeMap system, which portrays the uncertain, best estimate of the distribution and intensity of shaking over the potentially impacted region. The shaking intensity is well constrained at seismograph locations yet is uncertain elsewhere, so shaking uncertainties are quantified and presented spatially. However, with ShakeMap, it seems that users tend to believe what they see is accurate in part because (1) considering the shaking uncertainty complicates the picture, and (2) it would not necessarily alter their decision-making. In contrast, when it comes to making earthquake-response decisions based on uncertain loss estimates, actions tend to be made only after analysis of the confidence in (or source of) such estimates. Uncertain ranges of loss estimates instill tangible images for users, and when such uncertainties become large, intuitive reality-check alarms go off, for example, when the range of losses presented become too wide to be useful. The USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, which in near-real time alerts users to the likelihood of ranges of potential fatalities and economic impact, is aimed at
Bommer, Julian J; Crowley, Helen; Pinho, Rui
Earthquakes may be induced by a wide range of anthropogenic activities such as mining, fluid injection and extraction, and hydraulic fracturing. In recent years, the increased occurrence of induced seismicity and the impact of some of these earthquakes on the built environment have heightened both public concern and regulatory scrutiny, motivating the need for a framework for the management of induced seismicity. Efforts to develop systems to enable control of seismicity have not yet resulted in solutions that can be applied with confidence in most cases. The more rational approach proposed herein is based on applying the same risk quantification and mitigation measures that are applied to the hazard from natural seismicity. This framework allows informed decision-making regarding the conduct of anthropogenic activities that may cause earthquakes. The consequent risk, if related to non-structural damage (when re-location is not an option), can be addressed by appropriate financial compensation. If the risk poses a threat to life and limb, then it may be reduced through the application of strengthening measures in the built environment-the cost of which can be balanced against the economic benefits of the activity in question-rather than attempting to ensure that some threshold on earthquake magnitude or ground-shaking amplitude is not exceeded. However, because of the specific characteristics of induced earthquakes-which may occur in regions with little or no natural seismicity-the procedures used in standard earthquake engineering need adaptation and modification for application to induced seismicity.
The concept of having an in-house obstetrician (serving as an obstetrics [OB] hospitalist) available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week provides a safety net for OB events that many need immediate intervention for a successful outcome. A key precept of risk management, that of loss prevention, fits perfectly with the addition of an OB hospitalist role in the perinatal department. Inherent in the role of OB hospitalists are the patient safety and risk management principles of improved communication, enhanced readiness, and immediate availability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Oki, S.; Koketsu, K.; Kuwabara, E.; Tomari, J.
For the previous 6 months from the L'Aquila earthquake which occurred on 6th April 2009, the seismicity in that region had been active. Having become even more active and reached to magnitude 4 earthquake on 30th March, the government held Major Risks Committee which is a part of the Civil Protection Department and is tasked with forecasting possible risks by collating and analyzing data from a variety of sources and making preventative recommendations. At the press conference immediately after the committee, they reported that "The scientific community tells us there is no danger, because there is an ongoing discharge of energy. The situation looks favorable." 6 days later, a magunitude 6.3 earthquake attacked L'Aquila and killed 308 people. On 3rd June next year, the prosecutors opened the investigation after complaints of the victims that far more people would have fled their homes that night if there had been no reassurances of the Major Risks Committee the previous week. This issue becomes widely known to the seismological society especially after an email titled "Letter of Support for Italian Earthquake Scientists" from seismologists at the National Geophysics and Volcanology Institute (INGV) sent worldwide. It says that the L'Aquila Prosecutors office indicted of manslaughter the members of the Major Risks Committee and that the charges are for failing to provide a short term alarm to the population before the earthquake struck. It is true that there is no generalized method to predict earthquakes but failing the short term alarm is not the reason for the investigation of the scientists. The chief prosecutor stated that "the committee could have provided the people with better advice", and "it wasn't the case that they did not receive any warnings, because there had been tremors". The email also requests sign-on support for the open letter to the president of Italy from Earth sciences colleagues from all over the world and collected more than 5000 signatures
... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Risk management. 917.3 Section 917.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT OF THE FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANKS POWERS AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF BANK BOARDS OF DIRECTORS AND SENIOR MANAGEMENT § 917.3 Risk management. (a) Risk management...
... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Risk management. 917.3 Section 917.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT OF THE FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANKS POWERS AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF BANK BOARDS OF DIRECTORS AND SENIOR MANAGEMENT § 917.3 Risk management. (a) Risk management...
... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Risk management. 917.3 Section 917.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT OF THE FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANKS POWERS AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF BANK BOARDS OF DIRECTORS AND SENIOR MANAGEMENT § 917.3 Risk management. (a) Risk management...
... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk management. 917.3 Section 917.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT OF THE FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANKS POWERS AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF BANK BOARDS OF DIRECTORS AND SENIOR MANAGEMENT § 917.3 Risk management. (a) Risk management...
An objective if the U.S. Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 is to introduce into all regions of the country that are subject to large and moderate earthquakes, systems for predicting earthquakes and assessing earthquake risk. In 1985, the USGS developed for the Secretary of the Interior a program for implementation of a prototype operational earthquake prediction system in southern California.
Greenfield, Michael A.
In NPG (NASA Procedures and Guidelines) 7120.5A, we define risk management as "an organized, systematic decision-making process that efficiently identifies, analyzes, plans, tracks, controls, and communicates and documents risk in order to increase the likelihood of achieving program/project goals." Effective risk management depends upon a thorough understanding of the concept of risk, the principles of risk management and the formation of a disciplined risk management process. In human spaceflight programs, NASA has always maintained a rigorous and highly structured risk management effort. When lives are at stake, NASA's missions must be 100% safe; the risk management approach used in human spaceflight has always been comprehensive.
Bossu, R.; Steed, R.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Roussel, F.; Frobert, L.
Many seismic events are only picked up by seismometers but the only earthquakes that really interest the public (and the authorities) are those which are felt by the population. It is not a magnitude issue only; even a small magnitude earthquake, if widely felt can create a public desire for information. In LastQuake, felt events are automatically discriminated through the reactions of the population on the Internet. It uses three different and complementary methods. Twitter Earthquake detection, initially developed by the USGS, detects surges in the number of tweets containing the word "earthquake" in different languages. Flashsourcing, developed by EMSC, detects traffic surges caused by eyewitnesses on its website - one of the top global earthquake information websites. Both detections happen typically within 2 minutes of an event's occurrence. Finally, an earthquake is also confirmed as being felt when at least 3 independent felt reports (questionnaires) are collected. LastQuake automatically merges seismic data, direct (crowdsourced) and indirect eyewitnesses' contributions, damage scenarios and tsunami alerts to provide information on felt earthquakes and their effects in a time ranging from a few tens of seconds to 90 minutes. It is based on visual communication to erase language hurdles, for instance, it crowdsources felt reports through simple cartoons as well as geo-located pics. It was massively adopted in Nepal within hours of the Gorkha earthquake and collected thousands of felt reports and more than 100 informative pics. LastQuake is also a seismic risk reduction tools thanks to its very rapid information. When such information does not exist, people tend to call emergency services, crowds emerge and rumors spread. In its next release, LastQuake will also have "do/don't do" cartoons popping up after an earthquake to encourage appropriate behavior.
This paper discusses subjective hazards in wilderness activities and suggests means of assessing and managing related risks. Wilderness educators conveniently group hazards into objective and subjective ones. Objective hazards such as rockfall, moving water, and weather, while not necessarily predictable, are visible and understandable. Subjective…
Wein, A. M.; Potter, S.; Becker, J.; Doyle, E. E.; Jones, J. L.
While communication products are developed for monitoring and forecasting hazard events, less thought may have been given to crisis and risk communication plans. During larger (and rarer) events responsible science agencies may find themselves facing new and intensified demands for information and unprepared for effectively resourcing communications. In a study of the communication of aftershock information during the 2010-12 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (New Zealand), issues are identified and implications for communication strategy noted. Communication issues during the responses included reliability and timeliness of communication channels for immediate and short decision time frames; access to scientists by those who needed information; unfamiliar emergency management frameworks; information needs of multiple audiences, audience readiness to use the information; and how best to convey empathy during traumatic events and refer to other information sources about what to do and how to cope. Other science communication challenges included meeting an increased demand for earthquake education, getting attention on aftershock forecasts; responding to rumor management; supporting uptake of information by critical infrastructure and government and for the application of scientific information in complex societal decisions; dealing with repetitive information requests; addressing diverse needs of multiple audiences for scientific information; and coordinating communications within and outside the science domain. For a science agency, a communication strategy would consider training scientists in communication, establishing relationships with university scientists and other disaster communication roles, coordinating messages, prioritizing audiences, deliberating forecasts with community leaders, identifying user needs and familiarizing them with the products ahead of time, and practicing the delivery and use of information via scenario planning and exercises.
Danciu, Laurentiu; Wiemer, Stefan; Haslinger, Florian; Kastli, Philipp; Giardini, Domenico
European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (EEFEHR) represents the sustainable community resource for seismic hazard and risk in Europe. The EFEHR web platform is the main gateway to access data, models and tools as well as provide expertise relevant for assessment of seismic hazard and risk. The main services (databases and web-platform) are hosted at ETH Zurich and operated by the Swiss Seismological Service (Schweizerischer Erdbebendienst SED). EFEHR web-portal (www.efehr.org) collects and displays (i) harmonized datasets necessary for hazard and risk modeling, e.g. seismic catalogues, fault compilations, site amplifications, vulnerabilities, inventories; (ii) extensive seismic hazard products, namely hazard curves, uniform hazard spectra and maps for national and regional assessments. (ii) standardized configuration files for re-computing the regional seismic hazard models; (iv) relevant documentation of harmonized datasets, models and web-services. Today, EFEHR distributes full output of the 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model, ESHM13, as developed within the SHARE project (http://www.share-eu.org/); the latest results of the 2014 Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME14), derived within the EMME Project (www.emme-gem.org); the 2001 Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Project (GSHAP) results and the 2015 updates of the Swiss Seismic Hazard. New datasets related to either seismic hazard or risk will be incorporated as they become available. We present the currents status of the EFEHR platform, with focus on the challenges, summaries of the up-to-date datasets, user experience and feedback, as well as the roadmap to future technological innovation beyond the web-platform development. We also show the new services foreseen to fully integrate with the seismological core services of European Plate Observing System (EPOS).
Various NASA Langley Research Center and other center projects were attempted for analysis to obtain historical data comparing pre-phase A study and the final outcome for each project. This attempt, however, was abandoned once it became clear that very little documentation was available. Next, extensive literature search was conducted on the role of risk and reliability concepts in project management. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques are being used with increasing regularity both in and outside of NASA. The value and the usage of PRA techniques were reviewed for large projects. It was found that both civilian and military branches of the space industry have traditionally refrained from using PRA, which was developed and expanded by nuclear industry. Although much has changed with the end of the cold war and the Challenger disaster, it was found that ingrained anti-PRA culture is hard to stop. Examples of skepticism against the use of risk management and assessment techniques were found both in the literature and in conversations with some technical staff. Program and project managers need to be convinced that the applicability and use of risk management and risk assessment techniques is much broader than just in the traditional safety-related areas of application. The time has come to begin to uniformly apply these techniques. The whole idea of risk-based system can maximize the 'return on investment' that the public demands. Also, it would be very useful if all project documents of NASA Langley Research Center, pre-phase A through final report, are carefully stored in a central repository preferably in electronic format.
The Asian Disaster Reduction Center informed that on 27 May 2006 at 5:54 AM Local time or 26 May 2006 at 10:54:00 PM UTC, an M6.3 earthquake has struck the very highly populated region of Yogyakarta. The death estimated between 5,775 and 6,234 and the number of injured was between 46,000 and 53,000. Invitation letters were sent to Indonesia Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) and to 18 government institutions for attending the session at the Yogyakarta Court on 4 December 2006. Such case was a lawsuit proposed by 46 citizens and registered as number 73/PDT.G/ 2006/PN-Yk and the researcher attended court-session on behalf of the BMKG. Research is conducted to provide legal analysis of citizen lawsuit toward management of the 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake. Data was collected by examining the process of court sessions and mediation between Parties involved which then analysed using the relevant articles of Indonesian Civil Procedural Law. Legal analysis proposed by the researcher indicates that State Court (Pengadilan Negeri) held an `absolute competence' because such case shall not be settled by State Administrative Court (Pengadilan Tata Usaha Negara), however Yogyakarta District Court didn't hold a `relative competence' because such case shall be settled by the Central Jakarta District Court. Such case was not continued due to successful mediation between the two Parties. The 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake alerts BMKG as the earthquake information provider to work properly in accordance with the standard operating procedure to avoid citizen lawsuit that might be proposed in the near future.
Nostro, C.; Baroux, E.; Maramai, A.; Graziani, L.; Tertulliani, A.; Castellano, C.; Arcoraci, L.; Casale, P.; Ciaccio, M. G.; Frepoli, A.
Italy is a country well known for the seismic and volcanic hazard. However, a similarly great hazard, although not well recognized, is posed by the occurrence of tsunami waves along the Italian coastline. This is testified by a rich catalogue and by field evidence of deposits left over by pre- and historical tsunamis, even in places today considered safe. This observation is of great importance since many of the areas affected by tsunamis in the past are today touristic places. The Italian tsunamis can be caused by different sources: 1- off-shore or near coast in-land earthquakes; 2- very large earthquakes on distant sources in the Mediterranean; 3- submarine volcanic explosion in the Tyrrhenian sea; 4- submarine landslides triggered by earthquakes and volcanic activity. The consequence of such a wide spectrum of sources is that an important part of the more than 7000 km long Italian coast line is exposed to the tsunami risk, and thousands of inhabitants (with numbers increasing during summer) live near hazardous coasts. The main historical tsunamis are the 1783 and 1908 events that hit Calabrian and Sicilian coasts. The recent tsunami is that caused by the 2002 Stromboli landslide. In order to reduce this risk and following the emotional impact of the December 2004 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami, we developed an outreach program consisting in talks given by scientists and in a movie and a book, both exploring the causes of the tsunami waves, how do they propagate in deep and shallow waters, and what are the effects on the coasts. Hints are also given on the most dangerous Italian coasts (as deduced by scientific studies), and how to behave in the case of a tsunami approaching the coast. These seminars are open to the general public, but special programs are developed with schools of all grades. In this talk we want to present the book and the movie used during the seminars and scientific expositions, that was realized from a previous 3D version originally
Zuñiga, Leyre; Calvo, Begoña
Biosimilars cannot be authorized based on the same requirements that apply to generic medicines. Despite the fact that the biosimilar and reference drug can show similar efficacy, the biosimilar may exhibit different safety profile in terms of nature, seriousness or incidence of adverse reactions. However, the data from pre-authorization clinical studies normally are insufficient to identify all potential differences. Therefore, clinical safety of similar biological medicinal products must be monitored closely on an ongoing basis during the post-approval phase including continued risk-benefit assessment. The biosimilar applicant must provide the European Medicines Agency (EMEA) with a risk management plan (EU-RMP) and pharmacovigilance programme with its application, including a description of the potential safety issues associated with the similar biological medicinal product that may be a result of differences in the manufacturing process from the reference biologic. The most critical safety concern relating to biopharmaceuticals (including biosimilars) is immunogenicity. Risk management applies scientifically based methodologies to identify, assess, communicate and minimise risk throughout a drug's life cycle so as to establish and maintain a favourable benefit-risk profile in patients. The risk management plan for biosimilars should focus on heightens the pharmacovigilance measures, identify immunogenicity risk and implement special post-marketing surveillance. Although International Nonproprietary Names (INNs) served as a useful tool in worldwide pharmacovigilance, for biologicals they should not be relied upon as the only means of product identification. Biologicals should always be commercialized with a brand name or the INN plus the manufacturer's name. (c) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Holden, Deborah A; Quin, Maureen; Holden, Des P
Over recent years there has been a growing appreciation that a small but significant proportion of patients experience (sometimes serious) adverse events in the hands of health care workers. Although research in this area is very much in its infancy there has been an increasing move towards applying principles of risk management from industry to health care organizations. With the particularly disastrous and costly nature of adverse outcomes in obstetrics it is appropriate to review clinical risk management issues in maternity. This review explores the appropriateness of applying lessons learned in industry to maternity. The classification of errors into individual and latent, or organizational, is examined. Furthermore, the way in which these errors can be identified and subsequently analysed, with examples from maternity units in the UK and USA, is discussed. The importance of an educational and supportive environment, rather than a blame culture, for both reporting of incidents and learning from adverse outcomes is emphasized. Improvement in patient experience of health care rests not just with improved treatments, but also with a reduction in the adverse events which occur in health care institutions. The principles by which risk can be identified prospectively and retrospectively, and the mechanisms for both local risk management and regional/national reporting and learning are considered.
Wu, Zhibin; Xu, Jiuping; Sui, Yan
Various studies have assessed the negative and/or positive changes in the aftermath of traumatic events. Yet few of these have addressed the factors associated with the coexistence of both negative and positive changes after a devastating earthquake. The aim of this study is to assess the relationship between the negative and positive changes and elucidate the risk factors of such changes one year after Wenchuan earthquake. A total of 2080 survivors from 19 counties participated in a self-report questionnaire survey which included the posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) Check list-Civilian, the posttraumatic growth PTG Inventory (PTGI). The prevalence of PTSD and moderate PTG was found to be 40.1% (95% CI [37.9% 42.3%]) and 51.1% (95% CI [48.9% 53.3%]). The PTSD and moderate PTG coexistence was 19.6% (95% CI [17.8% 21.4%]). PTSD symptom severity was significantly positively associated with the PTG score. Middle aged groups (31-40 and 41-50 years old, OR=2.323, 95% CI [1.059, 5.095] and OR=2.410, 95% CI [1.090, 5.329] respectively), those with lower income levels (OR=8.019, 95% CI [2.421, 26.558]), those living in temporary house (OR=1.946, 95% CI [1.280, 2.956]), and those who had had less social support (OR=1.109, 95% CI [1.076, 1.143]) had a significantly higher possibility for the presence of PTSD and moderate PTG coexistence. The results indicated the widespread positive changes in earthquake survivors. Better income levels and living conditions and higher social support were suggested to promote PTG in those with PTSD. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Kalantar Motamedi, Mohammad Hosein; Sagafinia, Masoud; Ebrahimi, Ali; Shams, Ehsan; Kalantar Motamedi, Mostafa
Objectives: This article sought to review and compare data of major earthquakes of the past decade and their aftermath in order to compare the magnitude, death toll, type of injuries, management procedures, extent of destruction and effectiveness of relief efforts. Materials and Methods: A retrospective study of the various aspects of management and aftermath of 5 major earthquakes of the past decade (2000–2010) was undertaken. This included earthquakes occurring in Bam Iran, Sichuan China, Port-au-Prince Haiti, Kashmir Pakistan and Ica Peru. A literature search was done via computer of published articles (indexed in Pubmed). The issues assessed included: 1)Local magnitude,2)Type of building structure 3)Time of the earthquake (day/time/season), 4)Time to rescue, 5)Triage, Transfer, and Treatment 6) Distribution of casualties (dead/ injured), 7)Degree of city damage, 8)Degree of damage to health facilities, 9)Field hospital availability, 10)International aid, 11)Air transfer, 12) Telecommunication systems availability, 13) PTSD prevalence, 14) Most common injury and 15) Most common disease outbreak. Results: The Bam earthquake had the lowest (6.6 Richter’s) and the Sichuan earthquake had the greatest magnitude (8.0 Richter’s). Mortality in Haiti was 212,000 and it was the deadliest earthquake of the past decade. Collapse of heavy clay roofing structures was a major cause of death in Iran and Pakistan. Earthquakes occurring at night and nonworking days carried a high death toll. The time to rescue and treat was the lengthiest in Haiti (possibly contributing to the death to injured ratio). However, the worst dead to injured ratios were in Bam (51%) and in Pakistan (47%); the best ratio was in China (15%). Iran and Pakistan suffered the highest percentage of damage to the health facilities (90%). Field hospital availability, international aid and air transfer were important issues. Telecommunication systems were best in China and worst in Pakistan. PTSD
Kalantar Motamedi, Mohammad Hosein; Sagafinia, Masoud; Ebrahimi, Ali; Shams, Ehsan; Kalantar Motamedi, Mostafa
This article sought to review and compare data of major earthquakes of the past decade and their aftermath in order to compare the magnitude, death toll, type of injuries, management procedures, extent of destruction and effectiveness of relief efforts. A retrospective study of the various aspects of management and aftermath of 5 major earthquakes of the past decade (2000-2010) was undertaken. This included earthquakes occurring in Bam Iran, Sichuan China, Port-au-Prince Haiti, Kashmir Pakistan and Ica Peru. A literature search was done via computer of published articles (indexed in Pubmed). The issues assessed included: 1)Local magnitude,2)Type of building structure 3)Time of the earthquake (day/time/season), 4)Time to rescue, 5)Triage, Transfer, and Treatment 6) Distribution of casualties (dead/ injured), 7)Degree of city damage, 8)Degree of damage to health facilities, 9)Field hospital availability, 10)International aid, 11)Air transfer, 12) Telecommunication systems availability, 13) PTSD prevalence, 14) Most common injury and 15) Most common disease outbreak. The Bam earthquake had the lowest (6.6 Richter's) and the Sichuan earthquake had the greatest magnitude (8.0 Richter's). Mortality in Haiti was 212,000 and it was the deadliest earthquake of the past decade. Collapse of heavy clay roofing structures was a major cause of death in Iran and Pakistan. Earthquakes occurring at night and nonworking days carried a high death toll. The time to rescue and treat was the lengthiest in Haiti (possibly contributing to the death to injured ratio). However, the worst dead to injured ratios were in Bam (51%) and in Pakistan (47%); the best ratio was in China (15%). Iran and Pakistan suffered the highest percentage of damage to the health facilities (90%). Field hospital availability, international aid and air transfer were important issues. Telecommunication systems were best in China and worst in Pakistan. PTSD prevalence was highest in Iran. Respiratory infection was
... 42 Public Health 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Risk management. 441.476 Section 441.476 Public... Self-Directed Personal Assistance Services Program § 441.476 Risk management. (a) The State must... plan for how identified risks will be mitigated. (d) The State must ensure that the risk management...
... 42 Public Health 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Risk management. 441.476 Section 441.476 Public... Self-Directed Personal Assistance Services Program § 441.476 Risk management. (a) The State must... plan for how identified risks will be mitigated. (d) The State must ensure that the risk management...
... 42 Public Health 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Risk management. 441.476 Section 441.476 Public... Self-Directed Personal Assistance Services Program § 441.476 Risk management. (a) The State must... plan for how identified risks will be mitigated. (d) The State must ensure that the risk management...
... 42 Public Health 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Risk management. 441.476 Section 441.476 Public... Self-Directed Personal Assistance Services Program § 441.476 Risk management. (a) The State must... plan for how identified risks will be mitigated. (d) The State must ensure that the risk management...
... 42 Public Health 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Risk management. 441.476 Section 441.476 Public... Self-Directed Personal Assistance Services Program § 441.476 Risk management. (a) The State must... plan for how identified risks will be mitigated. (d) The State must ensure that the risk management...
RISK MANAGEMENT: The large proportion of human errors in aviation accidents suggested the solution--at first sight brilliant--to replace the fallible human being by an "infallible" digitally-operating computer. However, even after the introduction of the so-called HITEC-airplanes, the factor human error still accounts for 75% of all accidents. Thus, if the computer is ruled out as the ultimate safety system, how else can complex operations involving quick and difficult decisions be controlled? OPTIMIZED TEAM INTERACTION/PARALLEL CONNECTION OF THOUGHT MACHINES: Since a single person is always "highly error-prone", support and control have to be guaranteed by a second person. The independent work of mind results in a safety network that more efficiently cushions human errors. NON-PUNITIVE ERROR MANAGEMENT: To be able to tackle the actual problems, the open discussion of intervened errors must not be endangered by the threat of punishment. It has been shown in the past that progress is primarily achieved by investigating and following up mistakes, failures and catastrophes shortly after they happened. HUMAN FACTOR RESEARCH PROJECT: A comprehensive survey showed the following result: By far the most frequent safety-critical situation (37.8% of all events) consists of the following combination of risk factors: 1. A complication develops. 2. In this situation of increased stress a human error occurs. 3. The negative effects of the error cannot be corrected or eased because there are deficiencies in team interaction on the flight deck. This means, for example, that a negative social climate has the effect of a "turbocharger" when a human error occurs. It needs to be pointed out that a negative social climate is not identical with a dispute. In many cases the working climate is burdened without the responsible person even noticing it: A first negative impression, too much or too little respect, contempt, misunderstandings, not expressing unclear concern, etc. can
Hu, Yi; Wang, Jinfeng; Li, Xiaohong; Ren, Dan; Zhu, Jun
On 12 May, 2008, a devastating earthquake registering 8.0 on the Richter scale occurred in Sichuan Province, China, taking tens of thousands of lives and destroying the homes of millions of people. Many of the deceased were children, particular children less than five years old who were more vulnerable to such a huge disaster than the adult. In order to obtain information specifically relevant to further researches and future preventive measures, potential risk factors associated with earthquake-related child mortality need to be identified. We used four geographical detectors (risk detector, factor detector, ecological detector, and interaction detector) based on spatial variation analysis of some potential factors to assess their effects on the under-five mortality. It was found that three factors are responsible for child mortality: earthquake intensity, collapsed house, and slope. The study, despite some limitations, has important implications for both researchers and policy makers. PMID:21738660
Hu, Yi; Wang, Jinfeng; Li, Xiaohong; Ren, Dan; Zhu, Jun
On 12 May, 2008, a devastating earthquake registering 8.0 on the Richter scale occurred in Sichuan Province, China, taking tens of thousands of lives and destroying the homes of millions of people. Many of the deceased were children, particular children less than five years old who were more vulnerable to such a huge disaster than the adult. In order to obtain information specifically relevant to further researches and future preventive measures, potential risk factors associated with earthquake-related child mortality need to be identified. We used four geographical detectors (risk detector, factor detector, ecological detector, and interaction detector) based on spatial variation analysis of some potential factors to assess their effects on the under-five mortality. It was found that three factors are responsible for child mortality: earthquake intensity, collapsed house, and slope. The study, despite some limitations, has important implications for both researchers and policy makers.
license under the clause at DFARS 252.227-7013 (a)(16) [Jun 2013]. Cyber Insurance – Managing Cyber Risk Data breaches involving...significant personal information losses and financial impact are becoming increasingly common. Whether the data breach has financial implications for...hundreds of millions of dollars depending on the type and size of the breach. Most states have some type of data breach law requiring notification
Kentel, E.; Çelik, A.; karimzadeh Naghshineh, S.; Askan, A.
Erzincan city located in the Eastern part of Turkey at the conjunction of three active faults is one of the most hazardous regions in the world. In addition to several historical events, this city has experienced one of the largest earthquakes during the last century: The 27 December 1939 (Ms=8.0) event. With limited knowledge of the tectonic structure by then, the city center was relocated to the North after the 1939 earthquake by almost 5km, indeed closer to the existing major strike slip fault. This decision coupled with poor construction technologies, led to severe damage during a later event that occurred on 13 March 1992 (Mw=6.6). The 1939 earthquake occurred in the pre-instrumental era in the region with no available local seismograms whereas the 1992 event was only recorded by 3 nearby stations. There are empirical isoseismal maps from both events indicating indirectly the spatial distribution of the damage. In this study, we focus on this region and present a multidisciplinary approach to discuss the different components of uncertainties involved in the assessment and mitigation of seismic risk in urban areas. For this initial attempt, ground motion simulation of the 1939 event is performed to obtain the anticipated ground motions and shaking intensities. Using these quantified results along with the spatial distribution of the observed damage, the relocation decision is assessed and suggestions are provided for future large earthquakes to minimize potential earthquake risks.
Sari, A. M.; Fakhrurrozi, A.
One of natural disasters that have significantly impacted on risks and damage is an earthquake. World countries such as China, Japan, and Indonesia are countries located on the active movement of continental plates with more frequent earthquake occurrence compared to other countries. Several methods of earthquake hazard analysis have been done, for example by analyzing seismic zone and earthquake hazard micro-zonation, by using Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (N-DSHA) method, and by using Remote Sensing. In its application, it is necessary to review the effectiveness of each technique in advance. Considering the efficiency of time and the accuracy of data, remote sensing is used as a reference to the assess earthquake hazard accurately and quickly as it only takes a limited time required in the right decision-making shortly after the disaster. Exposed areas and possibly vulnerable areas due to earthquake hazards can be easily analyzed using remote sensing. Technological developments in remote sensing such as GeoEye-1 provide added value and excellence in the use of remote sensing as one of the methods in the assessment of earthquake risk and damage. Furthermore, the use of this technique is expected to be considered in designing policies for disaster management in particular and can reduce the risk of natural disasters such as earthquakes in Indonesia.
Maluf, David A.; Bell, David G.
This paper describes recent work on developing an extensible information grid for risk management at NASA - a RISK INFORMATION GRID. This grid is being developed by integrating information grid technology with risk management processes for a variety of risk related applications. To date, RISK GRID applications are being developed for three main NASA processes: risk management - a closed-loop iterative process for explicit risk management, program/project management - a proactive process that includes risk management, and mishap management - a feedback loop for learning from historical risks that escaped other processes. This is enabled through an architecture involving an extensible database, structuring information with XML, schemaless mapping of XML, and secure server-mediated communication using standard protocols.
Freire, Sérgio; Aubrecht, Christoph
The recent 7.0 M earthquake that caused severe damage and destruction in parts of Haiti struck close to 5 PM (local time), at a moment when many people were not in their residences, instead being in their workplaces, schools, or churches. Community vulnerability assessment to seismic hazard relying solely on the location and density of resident-based census population, as is commonly the case, would grossly misrepresent the real situation. In particular in the context of global (climate) change, risk analysis is a research field increasingly gaining in importance whereas risk is usually defined as a function of hazard probability and vulnerability. Assessment and mapping of human vulnerability has however generally been lagging behind hazard analysis efforts. Central to the concept of vulnerability is the issue of human exposure. Analysis of exposure is often spatially tied to administrative units or reference objects such as buildings, spanning scales from the regional level to local studies for small areas. Due to human activities and mobility, the spatial distribution of population is time-dependent, especially in metropolitan areas. Accurately estimating population exposure is a key component of catastrophe loss modeling, one element of effective risk analysis and emergency management. Therefore, accounting for the spatio-temporal dynamics of human vulnerability correlates with recent recommendations to improve vulnerability analyses. Earthquakes are the prototype for a major disaster, being low-probability, rapid-onset, high-consequence events. Lisbon, Portugal, is subject to a high risk of earthquake, which can strike at any day and time, as confirmed by modern history (e.g. December 2009). The recently-approved Special Emergency and Civil Protection Plan (PEERS) is based on a Seismic Intensity map, and only contemplates resident population from the census as proxy for human exposure. In the present work we map and analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of
Bommer, Julian J.; Crowley, Helen; Pinho, Rui
Earthquakes may be induced by a wide range of anthropogenic activities such as mining, fluid injection and extraction, and hydraulic fracturing. In recent years, the increased occurrence of induced seismicity and the impact of some of these earthquakes on the built environment have heightened both public concern and regulatory scrutiny, motivating the need for a framework for the management of induced seismicity. Efforts to develop systems to enable control of seismicity have not yet resulted in solutions that can be applied with confidence in most cases. The more rational approach proposed herein is based on applying the same risk quantification and mitigation measures that are applied to the hazard from natural seismicity. This framework allows informed decision-making regarding the conduct of anthropogenic activities that may cause earthquakes. The consequent risk, if related to non-structural damage (when re-location is not an option), can be addressed by appropriate financial compensation. If the risk poses a threat to life and limb, then it may be reduced through the application of strengthening measures in the built environment—the cost of which can be balanced against the economic benefits of the activity in question—rather than attempting to ensure that some threshold on earthquake magnitude or ground-shaking amplitude is not exceeded. However, because of the specific characteristics of induced earthquakes—which may occur in regions with little or no natural seismicity—the procedures used in standard earthquake engineering need adaptation and modification for application to induced seismicity.
Earthquakes have long been feared as one of nature's most terrifying and devastating events. Although seismic codes clearly exist in countries with a high seismic risk to save lives and human suffering, earthquakes still continue to cause tragic events with high death tolls, particularly due to the collapse of widespread non-engineered buildings with non-seismic resistance in developing countries such as Indonesia. The implementation of seismic codes in non-engineered construction is the key to ensuring earthquake safety. In fact, such implementation is not simple, because it comprises all forms of cross disciplinary and cross sectoral linkages at different levels of understanding, commitment, and skill. This fact suggests that a widely agreed framework can help to harmonise the various perspectives. Hence, this research is aimed at developing an integrated framework for guiding and monitoring seismic risk reduction of non-engineered buildings in Indonesia via a risk management method.Primarily, the proposed framework for the study has drawn heavily on wider literature, the three existing frameworks around the world, and on the contribution of various stakeholders who participated in the study. A postal questionnaire survey, selected interviews, and workshop event constituted the primary data collection methods. As a robust framework needed to be achieved, the following two workshop events, which were conducted in Yogyakarta City and Bengkulu City in Indonesia, were carried out for practicality, validity, and moderation or any identifiable improvement requirements. The data collected was analysed with the assistance of SPSS and NVivo software programmes.This research found that the content of the proposed framework comprises 63 pairs of characteristic-indicators complemented by (a) three important factors of effective seismic risk management of non-engineered buildings, (b) three guiding principles for sustainable dissemination to the grass root communities and (c
NASA requires continuous risk management for all programs and projects. The risk management process identifies risks, analyzes their impact, prioritizes them, develops and carries out plans to mitigate or accept them, tracks risks and mitigation plans, and communicates and documents risk information. Project risk management is driven by the project goal and is performed by the entire team. Risk management begins early in the formulation phase with initial risk identification and development of a risk management plan and continues throughout the project life cycle. This paper describes the risk management approach that is suggested for use in NASA's Human Support Technology Development. The first step in risk management is to identify the detailed technical and programmatic risks specific to a project. Each individual risk should be described in detail. The identified risks are summarized in a complete risk list. Risk analysis provides estimates of the likelihood and the qualitative impact of a risk. The likelihood and impact of the risk are used to define its priority location in the risk matrix. The approaches for responding to risk are either to mitigate it by eliminating or reducing the effect or likelihood of a risk, to accept it with a documented rationale and contingency plan, or to research or monitor the risk, The Human Support Technology Development program includes many projects with independently achievable goals. Each project must do independent risk management, considering all its risks together and trading them against performance, budget, and schedule. Since the program can succeed even if some projects fail, the program risk has a complex dependence on the individual project risks.
... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Risk management. 932.1 Section 932.1 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS § 932.1 Risk management. Before its new capital plan may take...
... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Risk management. 932.1 Section 932.1 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS § 932.1 Risk management. Before its new capital plan may take...
... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Risk management. 932.1 Section 932.1 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS § 932.1 Risk management. Before its new capital plan may take...
... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Risk management. 39.13 Section... ORGANIZATIONS Compliance with Core Principles § 39.13 Risk management. (a) General. A derivatives clearing..., procedures, and controls, approved by its board of directors, which establish an appropriate risk management...
... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Risk management. 39.13 Section... ORGANIZATIONS Compliance with Core Principles § 39.13 Risk management. (a) General. A derivatives clearing..., procedures, and controls, approved by its board of directors, which establish an appropriate risk management...
... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Risk management. 39.13 Section... ORGANIZATIONS Compliance with Core Principles § 39.13 Risk management. (a) General. A derivatives clearing..., procedures, and controls, approved by its board of directors, which establish an appropriate risk management...
... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk management. 932.1 Section 932.1 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS § 932.1 Risk management. Before its new capital plan may take...
Forlin, Peter; Forlin, Chris
Describes a health-and-safety risk-management audit in four Queensland, Australia high schools. One major outcome of this research project is the development of a comprehensive risk-management policy in compliance with the law. Other outcomes include the preparation of a professional-development package in risk-management policy for use as a…
Thank you to our Presenting Sponsor, California Earthquake Authority. What's New? What's Next ? What's Your Role in Building a National Strategy? The National Earthquake Conference (NEC) is a , state government leaders, social science practitioners, U.S. State and Territorial Earthquake Managers
Funding project risk management is a process for identifying, assessing, and prioritizing project funding risks. To plan to : minimize or eliminate the impact of negative events, one must identify what projects have higher risk to respond to potentia...
McNamara, R. P.; Booth, P.
A management strategy that is potentially more fruitful for the nonprofit sector than traditional management toward a primary objective is a risk management approach to organizational effectiveness. The organization's effectiveness, its survival, can be analyzed by categorizing the risks facing it and assessing its performance in managing these…
A monograph examines the role of risk and risk management in experiential education, particularly stress/challenge programming. Definitions of risk are presented. The importance of risk and stress in experiential education is emphasized. Implications of subjective versus objective risk assessment in adventure education are discussed, with…
Mahue-Giangreco, M; Mack, W; Seligson, H; Bourque, L B
The purpose of this study was to use emergency department data to estimate levels of morbidity and risk factors due to earthquake-related mechanisms of injury subsequent to an urban night-time earthquake. Data were abstracted from 4190 medical records for the month of January, 1994. Injuries attributable to the earthquake were identified through emergency department and medical records. These injuries were: (a) categorized by mechanism of injury; (b) assigned an injury severity score; and (c) linked to structural and geologic data. Proportional polytomous and dichotomous logistic regression were used to estimate risk of more severe injury associated with demographic characteristics, injury characteristics, structural characteristics, and geologic factors. More severe earthquake-related injuries (serious versus moderate and moderate versus minor) were statistically significantly associated with patient age (> or = 60 years old), upper extremities, falling, multi-family structures, pre-1960 housing, and the 50th percentile of Peak Ground Acceleration, after adjusting for all other available demographic, injury, structural, and geologic characteristics. The current recommendation of 'duck, cover, and hold' might not be optimal during a nighttime earthquake, particularly if individuals are in the padded environment of the bed. Actions such as reaching for or catching objects, bracing, or holding onto perceived stable objects may increase risk for more serious injury. Alternate responses include assuming a tucked position (as in airline crashes) or staying in bed for non-ambulating people. Structural damage and structure size were not associated with more serious injuries, but structure use and age were, leading the authors to suspect that unmeasured socioeconomic factors might impact risk factors. The importance of including population demographic characteristics in hazard modeling is emphasized.
Cardona, O. D.
Recently earthquakes have struck cities both from developing as well as developed countries, revealing significant knowledge gaps and the need to improve the quality of input data and of the assumptions of the risk models. The quake and tsunami in Japan (2011) and the disasters due to earthquakes in Haiti (2010), Chile (2010), New Zealand (2011) and Spain (2011), only to mention some unexpected impacts in different regions, have left several concerns regarding hazard assessment as well as regarding the associated uncertainties to the estimation of the future losses. Understanding probable losses and reconstruction costs due to earthquakes creates powerful incentives for countries to develop planning options and tools to cope with sovereign risk, including allocating the sustained budgetary resources necessary to reduce those potential damages and safeguard development. Therefore the use of robust risk models is a need to assess the future economic impacts, the country's fiscal responsibilities and the contingent liabilities for governments and to formulate, justify and implement risk reduction measures and optimal financial strategies of risk retention and transfer. Special attention should be paid to the understanding of risk metrics such as the Loss Exceedance Curve (empiric and analytical) and the Expected Annual Loss in the context of conjoint and cascading hazards.
Marzocchi, Warner; Taroni, Matteo; Falcone, Giuseppe
Earthquake forecasting is the ultimate challenge for seismologists, because it condenses the scientific knowledge about the earthquake occurrence process, and it is an essential component of any sound risk mitigation planning. It is commonly assumed that, in the short term, trustworthy earthquake forecasts are possible only for typical aftershock sequences, where the largest shock is followed by many smaller earthquakes that decay with time according to the Omori power law. We show that the current Italian operational earthquake forecasting system issued statistically reliable and skillful space-time-magnitude forecasts of the largest earthquakes during the complex 2016-2017 Amatrice-Norcia sequence, which is characterized by several bursts of seismicity and a significant deviation from the Omori law. This capability to deliver statistically reliable forecasts is an essential component of any program to assist public decision-makers and citizens in the challenging risk management of complex seismic sequences.
Marzocchi, Warner; Taroni, Matteo; Falcone, Giuseppe
Earthquake forecasting is the ultimate challenge for seismologists, because it condenses the scientific knowledge about the earthquake occurrence process, and it is an essential component of any sound risk mitigation planning. It is commonly assumed that, in the short term, trustworthy earthquake forecasts are possible only for typical aftershock sequences, where the largest shock is followed by many smaller earthquakes that decay with time according to the Omori power law. We show that the current Italian operational earthquake forecasting system issued statistically reliable and skillful space-time-magnitude forecasts of the largest earthquakes during the complex 2016–2017 Amatrice-Norcia sequence, which is characterized by several bursts of seismicity and a significant deviation from the Omori law. This capability to deliver statistically reliable forecasts is an essential component of any program to assist public decision-makers and citizens in the challenging risk management of complex seismic sequences. PMID:28924610
Mignan, A.; Muir-Wood, R.
Given the difficulty of judging whether the skill of a particular methodology of earthquake forecasts is offset by the inevitable false alarms and missed predictions, it is important to find a means to weigh the successes and failures according to a common currency. Rather than judge subjectively the relative costs and benefits of predictions, we develop a simple method to determine if the use of earthquake forecasts can increase the profitability of active financial risk management strategies employed in standard insurance procedures. Three types of risk management transactions are employed: (1) insurance underwriting, (2) reinsurance purchasing and (3) investment in CAT bonds. For each case premiums are collected based on modelled technical risk costs and losses are modelled for the portfolio in force at the time of the earthquake. A set of predetermined actions follow from the announcement of any change in earthquake hazard, so that, for each earthquake forecaster, the financial performance of an active risk management strategy can be compared with the equivalent passive strategy in which no notice is taken of earthquake forecasts. Overall performance can be tracked through time to determine which strategy gives the best long term financial performance. This will be determined by whether the skill in forecasting the location and timing of a significant earthquake (where loss is avoided) is outweighed by false predictions (when no premium is collected). This methodology is to be tested in California, where catastrophe modeling is reasonably mature and where a number of researchers issue earthquake forecasts.
The Calysto: Risk Management for Commercial Manned Spaceflight study analyzes risk management in large enterprises and how to effectively communicate risks across organizations. The Calysto Risk Management tool developed by NASA's Kennedy Space Center's SharePoint team is used and referenced throughout the study. Calysto is a web-base tool built on Microsoft's SharePoint platform. The risk management process at NASA is examined and incorporated in the study. Using risk management standards from industry and specific organizations at the Kennedy Space Center, three methods of communicating and elevating risk are examined. Each method describes details of the effectiveness and plausibility of using the method in the Calysto Risk Management Tool. At the end of the study suggestions are made for future renditions of Calysto.
Moreau, K.; Roumagnac, A.
For several years, as floods were increasing in South of France, local communities felt deprive to assume their mission of protection and information of citizens, and were looking for assistance in flood management. In term of flood disaster, the fact is that physical protection is necessary but inevitably limited. Tools and structures of assistance to anticipation remain slightly developed. To manage repeated crisis, local authorities need to be able to base their policy against flood on prevention, warnings, post-crisis analysis and feedback from former experience. In this objective, after 3 years of test and improvement since 2003, the initiative Predict-Services was developed in South of France: it aims at helping communities and companies to face repeated flood crisis. The principle is to prepare emergency plans, to organize crisis management and reduce risks; to help and assist communities and companies during crisis to activate and adapt their emergency plans with enough of anticipation; and to analyse floods effects and improve emergency plans afterwards. With the help of Meteo France datas and experts, Predict services helps local communities and companies in decision making for flood management. In order to reduce risks, and to keep the benefits of such an initiative, local communities and companies have to maintain the awareness of risk of the citizens and employees. They also have to maintain their safety plans to keep them constantly operational. This is a part of the message relayed. Companies, Local communities, local government authorities and basin stakeholders are the decision makers. Companies and local communities have to involve themselves in the elaboration of safety plans. They are also completely involved in their activation that is their own responsability. This applies to other local government authorities, like districts one's and basin stakeholders, which participle in the financing community safety plans and adminitrative district which
Dinitz, L.; Wein, A. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Jones, J. L.
This research led by the U.S. Geological Survey aims to inform and stimulate the development of plans and policies in disaster management and hazard mitigation that will help improve the capacity of residents, businesses and communities to rebound from disasters. As was evidenced in the 1994 Northridge earthquake, "ghost towns" emerged in neighborhoods with high concentrations of damaged rental housing. Also, rental properties that served predominantly lower income households had more difficulty financing repairs which led to blight and other long-term community recovery challenges. Our approach is to develop a framework for identifying and spatially analyzing communities at risk of long-term displacement and recovery challenges for an earthquake scenario. The HayWired scenario postulates a M7.05 earthquake on the Hayward Fault in the San Francisco Bay Area with surface fault rupture, liquefaction, landslides, and fires, as well as subsequent aftershocks. The analytical framework relies on the literature and prior disaster experience to identify and systematically combine physical and socioeconomic impacts of the earthquake sequence with pre-existing socioeconomic conditions to identify areas where housing and building damage, lifeline service disruption, and socioeconomic challenges intersect and can potentially lead to long-term displacements of people, businesses, and jobs. Hazus analyses estimate $46 billion in building damage from the HayWired main shock, which increases by 10-25% due to aftershocks. Heavy damage to large apartment buildings exceeds many other housing types, and preliminary analyses identify neighborhoods where these damage concentrations also intersect with concentrations of low income households. Also, in some counties, the estimated population displaced from severely damaged housing far exceeds the number of vacant housing units, which means residents may be forced to move well away from former neighborhoods and even outside the region
The purpose of this report is to alert managers and operators of transportation enterprises, in both the public and private sector, to the dangers of earthquakes to buildings and possible precautions to be taken. The nature of seismic hazards in the ...
Disasters due to natural extreme events continue to grow in number and intensity. Disaster risk and crisis management requires long-term planning, and to undertake that planning, a science-driven approach is needed to understand and assess disaster risks and to help in impact assessment and in recovery processes after a disaster. Science is used in assessments and rapid modeling of the disaster impact, in forecasting triggered hazards and risk (e.g., a tsunami or a landslide after a large earthquake), in contacts with and medical treatment of the affected population, and in some other actions. At the stage of response to disaster, science helps to analyze routinely the disaster happened (e.g., the physical processes led to this extreme event; hidden vulnerabilities; etc.) At the stage of recovery, natural scientists improve the existing regional hazard assessments; engineers try to use new science to produce new materials and technologies to make safer houses and infrastructure. At the stage of disaster risk mitigation new scientific methods and approaches are being developed to study natural extreme events; vulnerability of society is periodically investigated, and the measures for increasing the resilience of society to extremes are developed; existing disaster management regulations are improved. At the stage of preparedness, integrated research on disaster risks should be developed to understand the roots of potential disasters. Enhanced forecasting and early warning systems are to be developed reducing predictive uncertainties, and comprehensive disaster risk assessment is to be undertaken at local, regional, national and global levels. Science education should be improved by introducing trans-disciplinary approach to disaster risks. Science can help society by improving awareness about extreme events, enhancing risk communication with policy makers, media and society, and assisting disaster risk management authorities in organization of local and regional
Claycamp, H Gregg
Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although risk is generally a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management tools are relatively silent on the meaning and uses of "probability." The probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of frequency-based calculation and a "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management. A rich history of probability in risk management applied to other fields suggests that high-quality risk management decisions benefit from the implementation of more thoughtful probability concepts in both risk modeling and risk management. Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although "risk" generally describes a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management methodologies and respective tools focus on managing severity but are relatively silent on the in-depth meaning and uses of "probability." Pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding their use of quality risk management to identify and manage risks to the patient that might occur in phases of the pharmaceutical life cycle from drug development to manufacture, marketing to product discontinuation. A probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of data-based measures of probability and a subjective "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as
Jardine, Cindy; Hrudey, Steve; Shortreed, John; Craig, Lorraine; Krewski, Daniel; Furgal, Chris; McColl, Stephen
A comprehensive analytical review of the risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication approaches currently being undertaken by key national, provincial/state, territorial, and international agencies was conducted. The information acquired for review was used to identify the differences, commonalities, strengths, and weaknesses among the various approaches, and to identify elements that should be included in an effective, current, and comprehensive approach applicable to environmental, human health and occupational health risks. More than 80 agencies, organizations, and advisory councils, encompassing more than 100 risk documents, were examined during the period from February 2000 until November 2002. An overview was made of the most important general frameworks for risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication for human health and ecological risk, and for occupational health risk. In addition, frameworks for specific applications were reviewed and summarized, including those for (1)contaminated sites; (2) northern contaminants; (3) priority substances; (4) standards development; (5) food safety; (6) medical devices; (7) prescription drug use; (8) emergency response; (9) transportation; (10) risk communication. Twelve frameworks were selected for more extensive review on the basis of representation of the areas of human health, ecological, and occupational health risk; relevance to Canadian risk management needs; representation of comprehensive and well-defined approaches; generalizability with their risk areas; representation of "state of the art" in Canada, the United States, and/or internationally; and extent of usage of potential usage within Canada. These 12 frameworks were: 1. Framework for Environmental Health Risk Management (US Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management, 1997). 2. Health Risk Determination: The Challenge of Health Protection (Health and Welfare Canada, 1990). 3. Health Canada Decision
Gulino, Matteo; Vergallo, Gianluca Montanari; Frati, Paola
Medical activity includes a risk of possible injury or complications for the patients, that should drive the Health Care Institutions to introduce and/ or improve clinical Risk management instruments. Although Italy is still lacking a National project of Clinical Risk Management, a number of efforts have been made by different Italian Regions to introduce instruments of risk management. In addition, most of National Health Care Institutions include actually a Department specifically in charge to manage the clinical risk. Despite the practical difficulties, the results obtained until now suggest that the risk management may represent a useful instrument to contribute to the reduction of errors in clinical conduct. Indeed, the introduction of adequate instruments of prevention and management of clinical risk may help to ameliorate the quality of health care Institution services.
Paté-Cornell, M E
A method is presented here that allows probabilistic evaluation and optimization of warning systems, and comparison of their performance and cost-effectiveness with those of other means of risk management. The model includes an assessment of the signals, and of human response, given the memory that people have kept of the quality of previous alerts. The trade-off between the rate of false alerts and the length of the lead time is studied to account for the long-term effects of "crying wolf" and the effectiveness of emergency actions. An explicit formulation of the system's benefits, including inputs from a signal model, a response model, and a consequence model, is given to allow optimization of the warning threshold and of the system's sensitivity.
Under a Phase II SBIR contract, Kennedy and Lumina Decision Systems, Inc., jointly developed the Schedule and Cost Risk Analysis Modeling (SCRAM) system, based on a version of Lumina's flagship software product, Analytica(R). Acclaimed as "the best single decision-analysis program yet produced" by MacWorld magazine, Analytica is a "visual" tool used in decision-making environments worldwide to build, revise, and present business models, minus the time-consuming difficulty commonly associated with spreadsheets. With Analytica as their platform, Kennedy and Lumina created the SCRAM system in response to NASA's need to identify the importance of major delays in Shuttle ground processing, a critical function in project management and process improvement. As part of the SCRAM development project, Lumina designed a version of Analytica called the Analytica Design Engine (ADE) that can be easily incorporated into larger software systems. ADE was commercialized and utilized in many other developments, including web-based decision support.
Meerts-Brandsma, Lisa; Furman, Nate; Sibthorp, Jim
In 2003, the University of Utah and the National Outdoor Leadership School (NOLS) completed a study that developed a risk management taxonomy in the outdoor adventure industry and assessed how different outdoor expeditionary programs (OEPs) managed risk (Szolosi, Sibthorp, Paisley, & Gookin, 2003). By unifying the language around risk, the…
... Management AGENCY: Commodity Futures Trading Commission. ACTION: Notice of proposed rulemaking. SUMMARY: The... proposed rules address risk management for cleared trades by futures commission merchants, swap dealers... Commission has proposed extensive regulations addressing open access and risk management at the derivatives...
Dunklee, Dennis R.
Site-based school management opens the possibility of problems in districtwide risk management and liability prevention programs. Describes a program to transfer prevention law and risk management strategies to individual school sites. Cautions that only duly authorized agents of local school boards can commit boards to contractual obligations.…
An enterprise risk management (ERM) discipline is comprehensive and organization-wide. The effectiveness of ERM is governed in part by the strength and breadth of its practices and processes. An essential element in decision making is a thorough process by which organizational risks and value opportunities can be identified. This article will offer identification techniques that go beyond those used in traditional risk management programs and demonstrate how these techniques can be used to identify risks and opportunity in the ERM environment. © 2016 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.
An earthquake of M6.3 killed 309 people in L'Aquila, Italy, on 6 April 2011. Subsequently, a judge in L'Aquila convicted seven who had participated in an emergency meeting on March 30, assessing the probability of a major event to follow the ongoing earthquake swarm. The sentence was six years in prison, a combine fine of 2 million Euros, loss of job, loss of retirement rent, and lawyer's costs. The judge followed the prosecution's accusation that the review by the Commission of Great Risks had conveyed a false sense of security to the population, which consequently did not take their usual precautionary measures before the deadly earthquake. He did not consider the facts that (1) one of the convicted was not a member of the commission and had merrily obeyed orders to bring the latest seismological facts to the discussion, (2) another was an engineer who was not required to have any expertise regarding the probability of earthquakes, (3) and two others were seismologists not invited to speak to the public at a TV interview and a press conference. This exaggerated judgment was the consequence of an uproar in the population, who felt misinformed and even mislead. Faced with a population worried by an earthquake swarm, the head of the Italian Civil Defense is on record ordering that the population be calmed, and the vice head executed this order in a TV interview one hour before the meeting of the Commission by stating "the scientific community continues to tell me that the situation is favorable and that there is a discharge of energy." The first lesson to be learned is that communications to the public about earthquake hazard and risk must not be left in the hands of someone who has gross misunderstandings about seismology. They must be carefully prepared by experts. The more significant lesson is that the approach to calm the population and the standard probabilistic hazard and risk assessment, as practiced by GSHAP, are misleading. The later has been criticized as
Gielen, Stephan; Sandri, Marcus; Schuler, Gerhard; Teupser, Daniel
Despite the advances in interventional techniques, the management of stable atherosclerosis remains the domain of optimal guideline-oriented therapy. Recent studies on the effects of aggressive lipid lowering on atheroma volume changes using intravascular ultrasound indicate that it is possible to achieve atherosclerosis regression by reaching low-density lipoprotein (LDL) levels less than 75 mg/dl. The pleiotropic anti-inflammatory effects of statins contribute to the reduction of cardiovascular (CV) event observed with aggressive lipid lowering. As a second important strategy to prevent disease progression, lifestyle changes with regular physical exercise are capable of halting the atherosclerotic process and reducing angina symptoms and CV events. Optimal medical therapy, a healthy lifestyle with regular physical exercise, and coronary interventions are not mutually exclusive treatment strategies. Over the last few decades, both have proved to be effective in significantly reducing the CV mortality in the Western world. However, risk factor modification contributed to at least half the effect in the reduction of CV mortality. This figure provides an estimate of what could be achieved if we were to take risk factor modification more seriously - especially in the acute care setting. The knowledge is there: today we have a better understanding on how to stop progression and even induce regression of atherosclerosis. Much research still needs to be done and will be done. In the meantime, however, our primary focus should lie in implementing what is already known. In addition, it is essential not just to treat CV risk factors, but also to treat them to achieve the target values as set by the guidelines of European Society of Cardiology.
Increasingly, risk assessors are moving away from simple deterministic assessments to probabilistic approaches that explicitly incorporate ecological variability, measurement imprecision, and lack of knowledge (collectively termed "uncertainty"). While the new methods provide an...
Min, Li; Tu, Chong-qi; Liu, Lei; Zhang, Wen-li; Yi, Min; Song, Yue-ming; Huang, Fu-guo; Yang, Tian-fu; Pei, Fu-xing
To comparatively analyze the medical records of patients with limb fractures as well as rescue strategy in Wenchuan and Yushu earthquakes so as to provide references for post-earthquake rescue. We retrospectively investigated 944 patients sustaining limb fractures, including 891 in Wenchuan earthquake and 53 in Yushu earthquake, who were admitted to West China Hospital (WCH) of Sichuan University. In Wenchuan earthquake, WCH met its three peaks of limb fracture patients influx, on post-earthquake day (PED) 2, 8 and 14 respectively. Between PED 3-14, 585 patients were transferred from WCH to other hospitals outside the Sichuan Province. In Yushu earthquake, the maximum influx of limb fracture patients happened on PED 3, and no one was shifted to other hospitals. Both in Wenchuan and Yushu earthquakes, most limb fractures were caused by blunt strike and crush/burying. In Wenchuan earthquake, there were 396 (396/942, 42.0%) open limb fractures, including 28 Gustilo I, 201 Gustilo II and 167 Gustilo III injuries. But in Yushu earthquake, the incidence of open limb fracture was much lower (6/61, 9.8%). The percent of patients with acute complications in Wenchuan earthquake (167/891, 18.7%) was much higher than that in Yushu earthquake (5/53, 3.8%). In Wenchuan earthquake rescue, 1 018 surgeries were done, composed of debridement in 376, internal fixation in 283, external fixation in 119, and vacuum sealing drainage in 117, etc. While among the 64 surgeries in Yushu earthquake rescue, the internal fixation for limb fracture was mostly adopted. All patients received proper treatment and survived except one who died due to multiple organs failure in Wenchuan earthquake. Provision of suitable and sufficient medical care in a catastrophe can only be achieved by construction of sophisticated national disaster medical system, prediction of the injury types and number of injuries, and confirmation of participating hospitals?exact role. Based on the valuable rescue experiences
Hammer, Theodore F.; Rosenberg, Linda
NPG 7120.5A, "NASA Program and Project Management Processes and Requirements" enacted in April, 1998, requires that "The program or project manager shall apply risk management principles..." The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) at NASA GSFC has been tasked with the responsibility for developing and teaching a systems level course for risk management that provides information on how to comply with this edict. The course was developed in conjunction with the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, then tailored to the NASA systems community. This presentation will briefly discuss the six functions for risk management: (1) Identify the risks in a specific format; (2) Analyze the risk probability, impact/severity, and timeframe; (3) Plan the approach; (4) Track the risk through data compilation and analysis; (5) Control and monitor the risk; (6) Communicate and document the process and decisions.
The main objective of this paper is to demonstrate that it makes good business sense to identify risks and hazards of an operation and take appropriate steps to manage them effectively. Developing and implementing an effective risk and hazard management plan also contibutes to other industry requirements and standards. Development of a risk management system, key elements of a risk management plan, and hazards and risk analysis methods are outlined. Comparing potential risk to the cost of prevention is also discussed. It is estimated that the cost of developing and preparing the first risk management plan varies between $50,000 tomore » $200,000. 3 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.« less
Bossu, R.; Roussel, F.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Steed, R.; Frobert, L.
LastQuake is a smartphone app, browser add-on and the most sophisticated Twitter robot (quakebot) for earthquakes currently in operation. It fulfills eyewitnesses' needs by offering information on felt earthquakes and their effects within tens of seconds of their occurrence. Associated with an active presence on Facebook, Pinterest and on websites, this proves a very efficient engagement strategy. For example, the app was installed thousands of times after the Ghorka earthquake in Nepal. Language barriers have been erased by using visual communication; for example, felt reports are collected through a set of cartoons representing different shaking levels. Within 3 weeks of the magnitude 7.8 Ghorka earthquakes, 7,000 felt reports with thousands of comments were collected related to the mainshock and tens of its aftershocks as well as 100 informative geo-located pics. The QuakeBot was essential in allowing us to be identified so well and interact with those affected. LastQuake is also a risk reduction tool since it provides rapid information. Rapid information is similar to prevention since when it does not exist, disasters can happen. When no information is available after a felt earthquake, the public block emergency lines by trying to find out the cause of the shaking, crowds form potentially leading to unpredictable crowd movement, rumors spread. In its next release LastQuake will also provide people with guidance immediately after a shaking through a number of pop-up cartoons illustrating "do/don't do" items (go to open places, do not phone emergency services except if people are injured…). LastQuake's app design is simple and intuitive and has a global audience. It benefited from a crowdfunding campaign (and the support of the Fondation MAIF) and more improvements have been planned after an online feedback campaign organized in early June with the Ghorka earthquake eyewitnesses. LastQuake is also a seismic risk reduction tools thanks to its very rapid
RSKM 2004 COSO Enterprise RSKM Framework 2006 ISO/IEC 16085 Risk Management Process 2008 ISO/IEC 12207 Software Lifecycle Processes 2009 ISO/IEC...1 Software And Systems Engineering Risk Management John Walz VP Technical and Conferences Activities, IEEE Computer Society Vice-Chair Planning...Software & Systems Engineering Standards Committee, IEEE Computer Society US TAG to ISO TMB Risk Management Working Group Systems and Software
Anton, W.; Havenhill, M.
The Office of Chief Medical Officer (OCHMO) owns all human health and performance risks managed by the Human System Risk Board (HSRB). While the HSRB manages the risks, the Human Research Program (HRP) manages the research portion of the overall risk mitigation strategy for these risks. The HSRB manages risks according to a process that identifies and analyzes risks, plans risk mitigation and tracks and reviews the implementation of these strategies according to its decisions pertaining to the OCHMO risk posture. HRP manages risk research work using an architecture that describes evidence-based risks, gaps in our knowledge about characterizing or mitigating the risk, and the tasks needed to produce deliverables to fill the gaps and reduce the risk. A planning schedule reflecting expected research milestones is developed, and as deliverables and new evidence are generated, research progress is tracked via the Path to Risk Reduction (PRR) that reflects a risk's research plan for a design reference mission. HRP's risk research process closely interfaces with the HSRB risk management process. As research progresses, new deliverables and evidence are used by the HSRB in conjunction with other operational and non-research evidence to inform decisions pertaining to the likelihood and consequence of the risk and risk posture. Those decisions in turn guide forward work for research as it contributes to overall risk mitigation strategies. As HRP tracks its research work, it aligns its priorities by assessing the effectiveness of its contributions and maintaining specific core competencies that would be invaluable for future work for exploration missions.
This report presents the outcome from a multi-year research study to incorporate a risk management framework for the Alaska Department of Transportation & Public Facilities Geotechnical Asset Management (GAM) Plan. The GAM Plan was developed by Paul ...
Naeem, Farooq; Ayub, Muhammad; Masood, Khadija; Gul, Huma; Khalid, Mahwish; Farrukh, Ammara; Shaheen, Aisha; Waheed, Waquas; Chaudhry, Haroon Rasheed
On average in a year 939 earthquakes of a magnitude between 5 and 8 on the Richter scale occur around the world. In earthquakes developing countries are prone to large-scale destruction because of poor structural quality of buildings, and preparedness for earthquakes. On 8th October 2005, a major earthquake hit the remote and mountainous region of northern Pakistan and Kashmir. We wanted to find out the rate of PTSD in a randomly selected sample of participants living in earthquake area and the correlates of the PTSD. The study was conducted 18 months after the earthquake. We selected a sample of men and women living in the houses and tents for interviews. Using well established instruments for PTSD and general psychiatric morbidity we gathered information from over 1200 people in face to face interviews. We gathered information about trauma exposure and loss as well. 55.2% women and 33.4% men suffered from PTSD. Living in a joint family was protective against the symptoms of PTSD. Dose of exposure to trauma was associated with the symptoms of PTSD. Living in a tent was associated with general psychiatric morbidity but not with PTSD. We used questionnaire instead of interviews to detect the symptoms of psychiatric disorders. The symptoms of PTSD are common 18 months after the earthquake and they are specifically associated with the dose of trauma exposure. This may have implications for rehabilitation of this population. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.
Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing. PMID:26601167
Minson, Sarah E; Brooks, Benjamin A; Glennie, Craig L; Murray, Jessica R; Langbein, John O; Owen, Susan E; Heaton, Thomas H; Iannucci, Robert A; Hauser, Darren L
Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an M w (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California's Hayward fault, and real data from the M w 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.
Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.
Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.
of Master of Science in Operations Analysis Charles L. Carter, MA Major, USAF June 2012 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. APPROVED FOR...literature regarding supply chain risk management and intelligence doctrine. This review established the importance of supply chain risk analysis to...risk analysis . This research culminated in the development of a methodology for intelligence professionals to use to support supply chain risk
Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.
The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…
Simeone, Cynthia L
The responsibility of risk management in healthcare is fractured, with multiple stakeholders. Most hospitals and healthcare systems do not have a fully integrated risk management system that spans the entire organizational and operational structure for the delivery of key services. This article provides insight toward utilizing a comprehensive Business Resilience program and associated methodology to understand and manage organizational risk leading to organizational effectiveness and operational efficiencies, with the fringe benefit of realizing sustainable operational capability during adverse conditions. © 2015 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.
Quinley, K M
Like most businesses, adjusting companies are not charitable organizations. They are entitled to a reasonable profit, which the risk manager should not begrudge. As a buyer of adjusting services, a risk manager with an inordinate obsession with slashing adjusting bills can destroy the goal of high-quality service. It is best for risk managers to pick and choose the areas for cutting adjusting expenses. To an extent, health care risk managers should view payment of high-quality adjusting services as an investment, with the payback being money saved by fighting fraudulent, exaggerated, and questionable claims.
Nabutola, W.; Scheer, S.
Keywords: natural disasters; man-made disasters; terrorist attacks; land slides; disaster policies and legislations; fire; earthquakes; hurricanes; soil erosion; disaster research policy; Preamble: "Risk does not begin and end on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. The vastness of the subject matter is daunting. Risk touches on the most profound aspects of psychology, mathematics, statistics and history. The literature is monumental; each day's headlines bring many new items of interest. But I know we are not unique, everywhere in the world risks abound." "AGAINST THE GODS the remarkable story of risk" by Peter L. Bernstein, 1998 The real challenge is what can we, as a nation do to avert, prevent them, or in the unfortunate event that they occur, how can we mitigate their impact on the economy? Introductory remarks: Disaster in Kenya, as indeed anywhere else, is not one of those happenings we can wish away. It can strike anywhere any time. Some of it is man-made but most of it is natural. The natural are sometimes induced by man in one way or another. For example, when we harvest trees without replacing them, this diminishes the forest cover and can lead to soil erosion, whose advanced form is land slides. Either way disasters in their different forms and sizes present challenges to the way we live our lives or not, perhaps, even how we die. Disasters in our country have reached crisis stage. ‘In Chinese language, crisis means danger, but it also means opportunity' Les Brown, motivational speaker in "the power of a larger vision" Why I am interested Whereas Kenya experiences man made and natural disasters, there are more sinister challenges of the man-made variety. These loom on the horizon and, from time to time raise their ugly heads, taking many Kenyan lives in their wake, and property destroyed. These are post election violence and terrorist attacks, both related to politics, internal and external. In January 2008, soon after presidential and national
Keywords: natural disasters; man-made disasters; terrorist attacks; land slides; disaster policies and legislations; fire; earthquakes; hurricanes; soil erosion; disaster research policy; Preamble: "Risk does not begin and end on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. The vastness of the subject matter is daunting. Risk touches on the most profound aspects of psychology, mathematics, statistics and history. The literature is monumental; each day's headlines bring many new items of interest. But I know we are not unique, everywhere in the world risks abound." "AGAINST THE GODS the remarkable story of risk" by Peter L. Bernstein, 1998 The real challenge is what can we, as a nation do to avert, prevent them, or in the unfortunate event that they occur, how can we mitigate their impact on the economy? Introductory remarks: Disaster in Kenya, as indeed anywhere else, is not one of those happenings we can wish away. It can strike anywhere any time. Some of it is man-made but most of it is natural. The natural are sometimes induced by man in one way or another. For example, when we harvest trees without replacing them, this diminishes the forest cover and can lead to soil erosion, whose advanced form is land slides. Either way disasters in their different forms and sizes present challenges to the way we live our lives or not, perhaps, even how we die. Disasters in our country have reached crisis stage. ‘In Chinese language, crisis means danger, but it also means opportunity' Les Brown, motivational speaker in "the power of a larger vision" Why I am interested Whereas Kenya experiences man made and natural disasters, there are more sinister challenges of the man-made variety. These loom on the horizon and, from time to time raise their ugly heads, taking many Kenyan lives in their wake, and property destroyed. These are post election violence and terrorist attacks, both related to politics, internal and external. In January 2008, soon after presidential and national
Raila, Emilia M; Anderson, David O
Despite growing effects of human activities on climate change throughout the world, and global South in particular, scientists are yet to understand how poor healthcare waste management practices in an emergency influences the climate change. This article presents new findings on climate change risks of healthcare waste disposal during and after the 2010 earthquake and cholera disasters in Haiti. The researchers analysed quantities of healthcare waste incinerated by the United Nations Mission in Haiti for 60 months (2009 to 2013). The aim was to determine the relationship between healthcare waste incinerated weights and the time of occurrence of the two disasters, and associated climate change effects, if any. Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient indicated a weak correlation between the quantities of healthcare waste disposed of and the time of occurrence of the actual emergencies (r (58) = 0.406, p = 0.001). Correspondingly, linear regression analysis indicated a relatively linear data trend (R 2 = 0.16, F (1, 58) = 11.42, P = 0.001) with fluctuating scenarios that depicted a sharp rise in 2012, and time series model showed monthly and yearly variations within 60 months. Given that the peak healthcare waste incineration occurred 2 years after the 2010 disasters, points at the need to minimise wastage on pharmaceuticals by improving logistics management. The Government of Haiti had no data on healthcare waste disposal and practised smoky open burning, thus a need for capacity building on green healthcare waste management technologies for effective climate change mitigation.
Moreau, K.; Roumagnac, A.
For several years, as floods were increasing in South of France, local communities felt deprive to assume their mission of protection and information of citizens, and were looking for assistance in flood management. In term of flood disaster, the fact is that physical protection is necessary but inevitably limited. Tools and structures of assistance to anticipation remain slightly developed. To manage repeated crisis, local authorities need to be able to base their policy against flood on prevention, warnings, post-crisis analysis and feedback from former experience. In this objective, after 3 years of test and improvement since 2003, the initiative Predict-Services was developped in South of France: it aims at helping communities and companies to face repeated flood crisis. The principle is to prepare emergency plans, to organize crisis management and reduce risks; to help and assist communities and companies during crisis to activate and adapt their emergency plans with enough of anticipation; and to analyse floods effects and improve emergency plans afterwards. In order to reduce risks, and to keep the benefits of such an initiative, local communities and companies have to maintain the awareness of risk of the citizens and employees. They also have to maintain their safety plans to keep them constantly operational. This is a part of the message relayed. Companies, Local communities, local government authorities and basin stakeholders are the decision makers. Companies and local communities have to involve themselves in the elaboration of safety plans. They are also completely involved in their activation that is their own responsability. This applies to other local government authorities, like districts one's and basin stakeholders, which participle in the financing community safety plans and adminitrative district which are responsible of the transmission of meteorological alert and of rescue actions. In the crossing of the géo-information stemming from the
Sebastian, J.; Brezovic, Philip
The International Space Station (ISS) is an extremely complex system, both technically and programmatically. The Space Station must support a wide range of payloads and missions. It must be launched in numerous launch packages and be safely assembled and operated in the harsh environment of space. It is being designed and manufactured by many organizations, including the prime contractor, Boeing, the NASA institutions, and international partners and their contractors. Finally, the ISS has multiple customers, (e.g., the Administration, Congress, users, public, international partners, etc.) with contrasting needs and constraints. It is the ISS Risk Management Office strategy to proactively and systematically manages risks to help ensure ISS Program success. ISS program follows integrated risk management process (both quantitative and qualitative) and is integrated into ISS project management. The process and tools are simple and seamless and permeate to the lowest levels (at a level where effective management can be realized) and follows the continuous risk management methodology. The risk process assesses continually what could go wrong (risks), determine which risks need to be managed, implement strategies to deal with those risks, and measure effectiveness of the implemented strategies. The process integrates all facets of risk including cost, schedule and technical aspects. Support analysis risk tools like PRA are used to support programatic decisions and assist in analyzing risks.
Suzuki, Hitoshi; Ohira, Tetsuya; Takeishi, Yasuchika; Hosoya, Mitsuaki; Yasumura, Seiji; Satoh, Hiroaki; Kawasaki, Yukihiko; Takahashi, Atsushi; Sakai, Akira; Ohtsuru, Akira; Kobashi, Gen; Ozasa, Kotaro; Yamashita, Shunichi; Kamiya, Kenji; Abe, Masafumi
Previous studies have shown that control of cardiovascular risk factors deteriorates among residents after a natural disaster. This study assessed the hypothesis that the prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) increased among residents in the evacuation zone of Fukushima prefecture after the Great East Japan Earthquake. This longitudinal study examined subjects aged 40-90 years using data collected from 26,163 participants (11,628 men and 14,535 women) sourced from general health checkups conducted in twelve communities, including the evacuation zone specified by the government, between 2008 and 2010. The study obtained 12-lead ECG tracings and conducted follow-up examinations from June 2011 to the end of March 2013. A total of 12,410 participants (5704 men and 6706 women, follow-up proportion: 47%) received follow-up examinations after the earthquake, with an average follow-up of 1.4 years. The prevalence of AF increased among participants after the earthquake (before: 1.9% vs. after: 2.4%, P<.001). During the follow-up period, 79 incidences of AF occurred among participants. Excess ethanol intake (≥44 g/day) and obesity showed associations with an increased risk of AF after the earthquake, with multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of 3.07 (1.55-6.08) and 1.87 (1.19-2.94), respectively. The prevalence of AF increased among residents in the evacuation zone of Fukushima prefecture after the Great East Japan Earthquake, with excess alcohol intake and obesity associated with an increased risk of AF. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Involvement with both risk management and quality assurance programs has led many authors to the conclusion that the fundamental differences between these activities are, in fact, very small. "At the point of overlap, it is almost impossible to distinguish the purposes and methods of both functions from one another." "Good risk management includes real improvement in patient care through organized quality assurance activities." The interface between a proactive risk management program and a quality assurance program is dynamic and can serve the legitimate interests of both. There is little to be gained by thinking of them as separate entities and much to be gained by sharing the lessons of both. If one thinks of risk management in terms of "risk" to quality patient care, and that "assuring quality" is the most productive type of risk management, then there is no practical reason to separate one from the other.
Zulfikar, Can; Pinar, Ali; Tunc, Suleyman; Erdik, Mustafa
The Istanbul EEW network consisting of 10 inland and 5 OBS strong motion stations located close to the Main Marmara Fault zone is operated by KOERI. Data transmission between the remote stations and the base station at KOERI is provided both with satellite and fiber optic cable systems. The continuous on-line data from these stations is used to provide real time warning for emerging potentially disastrous earthquakes. The data transmission time from the remote stations to the KOERI data center is a few milliseconds through fiber optic lines and less than a second via satellites. The early warning signal (consisting three alarm levels) is communicated to the appropriate servo shut-down systems of the receipent facilities, that automatically decide proper action based on the alarm level. Istanbul Gas Distribution Corporation (IGDAS) is one of the end users of the EEW signal. IGDAS, the primary natural gas provider in Istanbul, operates an extensive system 9,867 km of gas lines with 550 district regulators and 474,000 service boxes. State of-the-art protection systems automatically cut natural gas flow when breaks in the pipelines are detected. Since 2005, buildings in Istanbul using natural gas are required to install seismometers that automatically cut natural gas flow when certain thresholds are exceeded. IGDAS uses a sophisticated SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) system to monitor the state-of-health of its pipeline network. This system provides real-time information about quantities related to pipeline monitoring, including input-output pressure, drawing information, positions of station and RTU (remote terminal unit) gates, slum shut mechanism status at 581 district regulator sites. The SCADA system of IGDAŞ receives the EEW signal from KOERI and decide the proper actions according to the previously specified ground acceleration levels. Presently, KOERI sends EEW signal to the SCADA system of IGDAS Natural Gas Network of Istanbul. The EEW signal
Financial risk management of pharmacy benefits in integrated health systems is explained. A managed care organization should assume financial risk for pharmacy benefits only if it can manage the risk. Horizontally integrated organizations often do not have much control over the management of drug utilization and costs. Vertically integrated organizations have the greatest ability to manage pharmacy financial risk; virtual integration may also be compatible. Contracts can be established in which the provider is incentivized or placed at partial or full risk. The main concerns that health plans have with respect to pharmacy capitation are formulary management and the question of who should receive rebates from manufacturers. The components needed to managed pharmacy financial risk depend on the type of contract negotiated. Health-system pharmacists are uniquely positioned to take advantage of opportunities opening up through pharmacy risk contracting. Functions most organizations must provide when assuming pharmacy financial risk can be divided into internal and external categories. Internally performed functions include formulary management, clinical pharmacy services and utilization management, and utilization reports for physicians. Functions that can be outsourced include claims processing and administration, provider- and customer support services, and rebates. Organizations that integrate the pharmacy benefit across the health care continuum will be more effective in controlling costs and improving outcomes than organizations that handle this benefit as separate from others. Patient care should not focus on payment mechanisms and unit costs but on developing superior processes and systems that improve health care.
Thomas, L. Dale
This report has been developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) Risk Management team in close coordination with the Systems Engineering Team. This document provides a point-in-time, cumulative, summary of key lessons learned derived from the SE RFP Development process. Lessons learned invariably address challenges and risks and the way in which these areas have been addressed. Accordingly the risk management thread is woven throughout the document.
Schulte, P. A.; Geraci, C. L.; Hodson, L. L.; Zumwalde, R. D.; Kuempel, E. D.; Murashov, V.; Martinez, K. F.; Heidel, D. S.
Occupational exposure to engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) is considered a new and challenging occurrence. Preliminary information from laboratory studies indicates that workers exposed to some kinds of ENMs could be at risk of adverse health effects. To protect the nanomaterial workforce, a precautionary risk management approach is warranted and given the newness of ENMs and emergence of nanotechnology, a naturalistic view of risk management is useful. Employers have the primary responsibility for providing a safe and healthy workplace. This is achieved by identifying and managing risks which include recognition of hazards, assessing exposures, characterizing actual risk, and implementing measures to control those risks. Following traditional risk management models for nanomaterials is challenging because of uncertainties about the nature of hazards, issues in exposure assessment, questions about appropriate control methods, and lack of occupational exposure limits (OELs) or nano-specific regulations. In the absence of OELs specific for nanomaterials, a precautionary approach has been recommended in many countries. The precautionary approach entails minimizing exposures by using engineering controls and personal protective equipment (PPE). Generally, risk management utilizes the hierarchy of controls. Ideally, risk management for nanomaterials should be part of an enterprise-wide risk management program or system and this should include both risk control and a medical surveillance program that assesses the frequency of adverse effects among groups of workers exposed to nanomaterials. In some cases, the medical surveillance could include medical screening of individual workers to detect early signs of work-related illnesses. All medical surveillance should be used to assess the effectiveness of risk management; however, medical surveillance should be considered as a second line of defense to ensure that implemented risk management practices are effective.
Stein, R. S.; Sevilgen, V.; Sevilgen, S.; Kim, A.; Jacobson, D. S.; Lotto, G. C.; Ely, G.; Bhattacharjee, G.; O'Sullivan, J.
Temblor quantifies and personalizes earthquake risk and offers solutions by connecting users with qualified retrofit and insurance providers. Temblor's daily blog on current earthquakes, seismic swarms, eruptions, floods, and landslides makes the science accessible to the public. Temblor is available on iPhone, Android, and mobile web app platforms (http://temblor.net). The app presents both scenario (worst case) and probabilistic (most likely) financial losses for homes and commercial buildings, and estimates the impact of seismic retrofit and insurance on the losses and safety. Temblor's map interface has clickable earthquakes (with source parameters and links) and active faults (name, type, and slip rate) around the world, and layers for liquefaction, landslides, tsunami inundation, and flood zones in the U.S. The app draws from the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model and the 2014 USGS Building Seismic Safety Council ShakeMap scenari0 database. The Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) model is used worldwide, with active faults displayed in 75 countries. The Temblor real-time global catalog is merged from global and national catalogs, with aftershocks discriminated from mainshocks. Earthquake notifications are issued to Temblor users within 30 seconds of their occurrence, with approximate locations and magnitudes that are rapidly refined in the ensuing minutes. Launched in 2015, Temblor has 650,000 unique users, including 250,000 in the U.S. and 110,000 in Chile, as well as 52,000 Facebook followers. All data shown in Temblor is gathered from authoritative or published sources and is synthesized to be intuitive and actionable to the public. Principal data sources include USGS, FEMA, EMSC, GEM Foundation, NOAA, GNS Science (New Zealand), INGV (Italy), PHIVOLCS (Philippines), GSJ (Japan), Taiwan Earthquake Model, EOS Singapore (Southeast Asia), MTA (Turkey), PB2003 (plate boundaries), CICESE (Baja California), California Geological Survey, and 20 other state
THE development of the concept of seismic gaps, regions of low earthquake activity where large events are expected, has been one of the notable achievements of seismology and plate tectonics. Its application to long-term earthquake hazard assessment continues to be an active field of seismological research. Here I have surveyed well documented case histories of repeated rupture of the same segment of circum-Pacific plate boundary and characterized their general features. I find that variability in fault slip and spatial extent of great earthquakes rupturing the same plate boundary segment is typical rather than exceptional but sequences of major events fill identified seismic gaps with remarkable order. Earthquakes are concentrated late in the seismic cycle and occur with increasing size and magnitude. Furthermore, earthquake rup-ture starts near zones of concentrated moment release, suggesting that high-slip regions control the timing of recurrent events. The absence of major earthquakes early in the seismic cycle indicates a more complex behaviour for lower-slip regions, which may explain the observed cycle-to-cycle diversity of gap-filling sequences. ?? 1989 Nature Publishing Group.
A key element of clinical risk management is the analysis of errors causing near misses or patient damage. After analyzing the causes and circumstances, measures for process improvement have to be taken. Process management, human resource development and other established methods are used. If an interpersonal conflict is a contributory factor to the error, there is usually no structured conflict management available which includes selection criteria for various methods of conflict processing. The European University Viadrina in Frankfurt (Oder) has created a process model for introducing a structured conflict management system which is suitable for hospitals and could fill the gap in the methodological spectrum of clinical risk management. There is initial evidence that a structured conflict management reduces staff fluctuation and hidden conflict costs. This article should be understood as an impulse for discussion on to what extent the range of methods of clinical risk management should be complemented by conflict management.
Cohen, Hedy; Tuohy, Nancy; Carroll, Roberta
ASHRM is committed to the future development of the healthcare risk management profession. A key contribution to this commitment is the creation of a student version of ASHRM's best-selling Risk Management Handbook for Healthcare Organizations. The Student Edition was released this spring. It is now being made available to universities and colleges to incorporate into their degree programs.
Suzuki, Kohta; Goto, Aya; Fujimori, Keiya
The aim of this study was to examine the association between medical institution change for perinatal care and gestational duration after the Great East Japan Earthquake using data from the Fukushima Health Management Survey. The data of pregnant women who experienced the earthquake in Fukushima prefecture and participated in the Pregnancy and Birth Survey as part of the Fukushima Health Management Survey were analyzed. The primary and secondary outcomes of this study were gestational duration and preterm birth, respectively. The main study factor was prenatal checkup institution (only one institution, changed institution due to self-referral, changed institution due to medical indication, and went to parents' home for childbirth). Self-referral was considered as indicative of relocation after the disaster. Multiple linear and logistic regression analyses were conducted to examine the effect of earthquake on each outcome. A total of 5593 (60.2%) participants experienced the earthquake between the 4th and 37th weeks of their gestational period. After controlling for variables, pregnant women who changed their perinatal checkup institution due to medical indication were significantly associated with shorter gestational duration (β = -10.6, P < 0.001) and preterm birth (adjusted odds ratio, 8.5; 95% confidence interval, 5.8-12.5) compared with women who visited only one institution. Self-referral, however, was not significantly associated with the outcomes. According to prenatal checkup status, our results suggest that the effect on gestational duration of the Great East Japan Earthquake and the subsequent Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster was not significant. © 2016 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.
Giosa, L.; Margiotta, M. R.; Sdao, F.; Sole, A.; Albano, R.; Cappa, G.; Giammatteo, C.; Pagliuca, R.; Piccolo, G.; Statuto, D.
The Environmental Engineering Faculty of University of Basilicata have higher-level course for students in the field of natural hazard. The curriculum provides expertise in the field of prediction, prevention and management of earthquake risk, hydrologic-hydraulic risk, and geomorphological risk. These skills will contribute to the training of specialists, as well as having a thorough knowledge of the genesis and the phenomenology of natural risks, know how to interpret, evaluate and monitor the dynamic of environment and of territory. In addition to basic training in the fields of mathematics and physics, the course of study provides specific lessons relating to seismic and structural dynamics of land, environmental and computational hydraulics, hydrology and applied hydrogeology. In particular in this course there are organized two connected examination arguments: Laboratory of hydrologic and hydraulic risk management and Applied geomorphology. These course foresee the development and resolution of natural hazard problems through the study of a real natural disaster. In the last year, the work project has regarded the collapse of two decantation basins of fluorspar, extracted from some mines in Stava Valley, 19 July 1985, northern Italy. During the development of the course, data and event information has been collected, a guided tour to the places of the disaster has been organized, and finally the application of mathematical models to simulate the disaster and analysis of the results has been carried out. The student work has been presented in a public workshop.
Vastola, Pasquale; Saracino, Donato M T
Risk management in healthcare refers to the process of developing strategies aimed at preventing and controlling the risk of occurrence of errors and harmful events. The final objective is primarily that of increasing patient safety and secondarily, that of reducing the financial burden of adverse events. The implementation of a risk management system is therefore of vital strategic importance. Nevertheless, a fundamental question that needs to be answered in the operational phase is: should a proactive or reactive approach to risk management be taken? In our view, proactive risk management has many advantages over a reactive approach and is therefore preferable. The reactive approach should be taken exclusively to obtain information regarding risk and errors, in the preliminary, as well as monitoring and follow-up phases of the project.
Shefali V. Mehta; Robert G. Haight; Frances R. Homans
Invasive species management is closely entwined with the assessment and management of risk that arises from the inherently random nature of the invasion process. The theory and application of risk management for invasive species with an economic perspective is reviewed in this synthesis. Invasive species management can be delineated into three general categories:...
Grant, Rachel A.; Savirina, Anna
Simple Summary Marine mammals stranding on coastal beaches is not unusual. However, there appears to be no single cause for this, with several causes being probable, such as starvation, contact with humans (for example boat strike or entanglement with fishing gear), disease, and parasitism. We evaluated marine mammal stranding off the Washington and Oregon coasts and looked at offshore earthquakes as a possible contributing factor. Our analysis showed that offshore earthquakes did not make marine mammals more likely to strand. We also analysed a subset of data from the north of Washington State and found that non-adult animals made up a large proportion of stranded animals, and for dead animals the commonest cause of death was disease, traumatic injury, or starvation. Abstract The causes of marine mammals stranding on coastal beaches are not well understood, but may relate to topography, currents, wind, water temperature, disease, toxic algal blooms, and anthropogenic activity. Offshore earthquakes are a source of intense sound and disturbance and could be a contributing factor to stranding probability. We tested the hypothesis that the probability of marine mammal stranding events on the coasts of Washington and Oregon, USA is increased by the occurrence of offshore earthquakes in the nearby Cascadia subduction zone. The analysis carried out here indicated that earthquakes are at most, a very minor predictor of either single, or large (six or more animals) stranding events, at least for the study period and location. We also tested whether earthquakes inhibit stranding and again, there was no link. Although we did not find a substantial association of earthquakes with strandings in this study, it is likely that there are many factors influencing stranding of marine mammals and a single cause is unlikely to be responsible. Analysis of a subset of data for which detailed descriptions were available showed that most live stranded animals were pups, calves, or
Wiig, E.; Berthelsen, I.; Donovan, K.
The Petroleum Act and Internal Control regulations in Norway lay down requirements for how HSE shall be Managed and documented. To comply with the Norwegian legislation the Troll Project has developed an HSE Risk Management System (RMS) structured around Hazards and Effects Management. The resulting quality, technical and operating integrity, and HSE performance are an endorsement of the power of RMS.
Freer, Y; Lyon, A
National reporting of adverse incidents has resulted in a number of clinical alerts being issued. Despite a lack of evidence, these alerts are often accompanied by a mandatory requirement to alter practice. There is likely to be clinician resistance to such a method of change management, particularly where evidence of safety is missing. To determine the level of implementation within neonatal units of an alert requiring the change from litmus to pH paper to test nasogastric tube position. A questionnaire sent to all neonatal units in the United Kingdom with more than 12 cots. From the 207 questionnaires sent, there were 165 (80%) responses. Fifty five percent of units were still using litmus. All continued to use supplementary tests not recommended in best practice statements issued at the time of the alert. There was considerable variation in the pH value at which it was considered safe to feed. Nine months after the alert, more than half the units had not changed to pH paper, and supplementary methods of testing were still being used. The wide range of pH values highlights the uncertainty about the "normal" gastric pH in the newborn. The evidence that, in neonatal units, changing to pH paper is safer than the long established use of litmus is lacking. Recommendations for change in practice must be based on good information and not seen just as a "knee jerk" response to adverse incidents.
Grant, Rachel A; Savirina, Anna; Hoppitt, Will
The causes of marine mammals stranding on coastal beaches are not well understood, but may relate to topography, currents, wind, water temperature, disease, toxic algal blooms, and anthropogenic activity. Offshore earthquakes are a source of intense sound and disturbance and could be a contributing factor to stranding probability. We tested the hypothesis that the probability of marine mammal stranding events on the coasts of Washington and Oregon, USA is increased by the occurrence of offshore earthquakes in the nearby Cascadia subduction zone. The analysis carried out here indicated that earthquakes are at most, a very minor predictor of either single, or large (six or more animals) stranding events, at least for the study period and location. We also tested whether earthquakes inhibit stranding and again, there was no link. Although we did not find a substantial association of earthquakes with strandings in this study, it is likely that there are many factors influencing stranding of marine mammals and a single cause is unlikely to be responsible. Analysis of a subset of data for which detailed descriptions were available showed that most live stranded animals were pups, calves, or juveniles, and in the case of dead stranded mammals, the commonest cause of death was trauma, disease, and emaciation.
Freer, Y; Lyon, A
Background National reporting of adverse incidents has resulted in a number of clinical alerts being issued. Despite a lack of evidence, these alerts are often accompanied by a mandatory requirement to alter practice. There is likely to be clinician resistance to such a method of change management, particularly where evidence of safety is missing. Aim To determine the level of implementation within neonatal units of an alert requiring the change from litmus to pH paper to test nasogastric tube position. Method A questionnaire sent to all neonatal units in the United Kingdom with more than 12 cots. Results From the 207 questionnaires sent, there were 165 (80%) responses. Fifty five percent of units were still using litmus. All continued to use supplementary tests not recommended in best practice statements issued at the time of the alert. There was considerable variation in the pH value at which it was considered safe to feed. Conclusions Nine months after the alert, more than half the units had not changed to pH paper, and supplementary methods of testing were still being used. The wide range of pH values highlights the uncertainty about the “normal” gastric pH in the newborn. The evidence that, in neonatal units, changing to pH paper is safer than the long established use of litmus is lacking. Recommendations for change in practice must be based on good information and not seen just as a “knee jerk” response to adverse incidents. PMID:16464936
use by third parties of results or methods presented in this report. The Company also stresses that various sections of this report rely on data...inundation probability Levee contribution to risk The methods used in FRE have been applied to establish the National Flood Risk in England and...be noted that when undertaking high level probabilistic risk assessments in the UK, if a defence’s condition is unknown, grade 3 is applied with
Fuller, David E; Hornfeldt, Carl S; Kelloway, Judy S; Stahl, Pamela J; Anderson, Todd F
Sodium oxybate, also known as gamma-hydroxybutyric acid (GHB), was discovered in 1960 and has been described both as a therapeutic agent with high medical value and, more recently, a substance of abuse. The naturally occurring form of this drug is found in various body tissues but has been studied most extensively in the CNS where its possible function as a neurotransmitter continues to be studied. Sodium oxybate has been approved in different countries for such varied uses as general anaesthesia, the treatment of alcohol withdrawal and addiction, and, most recently, cataplexy associated with narcolepsy. During the 1980s, easy access to GHB-containing products led to various unapproved uses, including weight loss, bodybuilding and the treatment of sleeplessness, sometimes with serious long-term effects. The availability of these unapproved and unregulated forms of the drug led to GHB and its analogues being popularised as substances of abuse and subsequent notoriety as agents used in drug-facilitated sexual assault, or 'date rape', eventually leading to the prohibition of GHB sales in the US. Legal efforts to control the sale and distribution of GHB and its analogues nearly prevented the clinical development of sodium oxybate for narcolepsy in the US. However, following extensive discussions with a variety of interested parties, a satisfactory solution was devised, including legislative action and the development of the Xyrem Risk Management Program. Amendments to the US Controlled Substances Act made GHB a schedule I drug, but also contained provisions that allow US FDA-approved products to be placed under schedule III. This unique, bifurcated schedule for sodium oxybate/GHB allowed the clinical development of sodium oxybate to proceed and, in July 2002, it was approved by the FDA as an orphan drug for the treatment of cataplexy in patients with narcolepsy as Xyrem(sodium oxybate) oral solution. To promote the safe use of sodium oxybate, as well as alleviate
Kirby, Stephen; Scholl, David; von Huene, Roland E.; Wells, Ray
Tsunami modeling has shown that tsunami sources located along the Alaska Peninsula segment of the Aleutian-Alaska subduction zone have the greatest impacts on southern California shorelines by raising the highest tsunami waves for a given source seismic moment. The most probable sector for a Mw ~ 9 source within this subduction segment is between Kodiak Island and the Shumagin Islands in what we call the Semidi subduction sector; these bounds represent the southwestern limit of the 1964 Mw 9.2 Alaska earthquake rupture and the northeastern edge of the Shumagin sector that recent Global Positioning System (GPS) observations indicate is currently creeping. Geological and geophysical features in the Semidi sector that are thought to be relevant to the potential for large magnitude, long-rupture-runout interplate thrust earthquakes are remarkably similar to those in northeastern Japan, where the destructive Mw 9.1 tsunamigenic earthquake of 11 March 2011 occurred. In this report we propose and justify the selection of a tsunami source seaward of the Alaska Peninsula for use in the Tsunami Scenario that is part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) Project. This tsunami source should have the potential to raise damaging tsunami waves on the California coast, especially at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Accordingly, we have summarized and abstracted slip distribution from the source literature on the 2011 event, the best characterized for any subduction earthquake, and applied this synoptic slip distribution to the similar megathrust geometry of the Semidi sector. The resulting slip model has an average slip of 18.6 m and a moment magnitude of Mw = 9.1. The 2011 Tohoku earthquake was not anticipated, despite Japan having the best seismic and geodetic networks in the world and the best historical record in the world over the past 1,500 years. What was lacking was adequate paleogeologic data on prehistoric earthquakes
Minardi, Valentina; Gigantesco, Antonella; Mancini, Cristiana; Quarchioni, Elisa; D'Argenio, Paolo; Cofini, Vincenza
to evaluate the long-term impact on the health of the general population of L'Aquila earthquake that occurred on April 6th, 2009. three consecutive surveys were performed on samples of the population of 18-69 years resident in L'Aquila and in the other towns affected by the earthquake. Data on health-related quality of life, depressive disorders, behaviour risk factor, and adoption of preventive measures were collected through telephone interviews in 2007-2008, in 2010, and in 2011-2014. the prevalence of individuals who declared to have economic difficulties increased after 3-5 years from the earthquake (8% in 2010 vs. 14% in 2011-2014). Nevertheless, health-related quality of life improved (decrease of unhealthy days: 7 in 2010 vs. 5 in 2011-2014), while the prevalence of depressive symptoms decreased so that it reached the national average rates (16% in 2010 vs. 7% in 2011-2014). Lack of physical activity, a serious consequence of the first period after the earthquake, became less habitual (39% in 2010 vs. 27% in 2011-2014), probably due to an improvement in the urban redevelopment. The prevalence of smoking and harmful use of alcohol is high (34% and 21%), mostly among young adults. 3-5 years after the earthquake of L'Aquila, compared to 2010 the quality of life related to health is improved (except in people with at least one chronic disease), and the frequency of depressive symptoms decreased, a sign of an extended recovery from conditions caused by the earthquake, despite of an increasing economic difficulties. On the other hand, we must emphasize critical elements, such as the high prevalence of smoking and consumption of alcoholic beverages other than as part of the meals, especially among young people, and very frequent physical inactivity, particularly among the elderly, although lower than in 2010. Finally, adherence to preventive measures and screening for cancer, and adoption of road safety devices could be improved.
Strametz, R; Tannheimer, M; Rall, M
Background: The fact that medical treatment is associated with errors has long been recognized. Based on the principle of "first do no harm", numerous efforts have since been made to prevent such errors or limit their impact. However, recent statistics show that these measures do not sufficiently prevent grave mistakes with serious consequences. Preventable mistakes such as wrong patient or wrong site surgery still frequently occur in error statistics. Methods: Based on insight from research on human error, in due consideration of recent legislative regulations in Germany, the authors give an overview of the clinical risk management tools needed to identify risks in surgery, analyse their causes, and determine adequate measures to manage those risks depending on their relevance. The use and limitations of critical incident reporting systems (CIRS), safety checklists and crisis resource management (CRM) are highlighted. Also the rationale for IT systems to support the risk management process is addressed. Results/Conclusion: No single tool of risk management can be effective as a standalone instrument, but unfolds its effect only when embedded in a superordinate risk management system, which integrates tailor-made elements to increase patient safety into the workflows of each organisation. Competence in choosing adequate tools, effective IT systems to support the risk management process as well as leadership and commitment to constructive handling of human error are crucial components to establish a safety culture in surgery. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.
In this second article in the series, the issue of risk assessment and management, in the context of a recent case, is revisited. The case in question is outlined in the previous article 'Compliance with directives and protocols'.
Toso, Robert; Tsang, Jonathan; Xie, Jasmina; Hohwald, Stephen; Bain, David; Willison-Parry, Derek
Technology transfer of biological products is a complex process that is important for product commercialization. To achieve a successful technology transfer, the risks that arise from changes throughout the project must be managed. Iterative risk analysis and mitigation tools can be used to both evaluate and reduce risk. The technology transfer stage gate model is used as an example tool to help manage risks derived from both designed process change and unplanned changes that arise due to unforeseen circumstances. The strategy of risk assessment for a change can be tailored to the type of change. In addition, a cross-functional team and centralized documentation helps maximize risk management efficiency to achieve a successful technology transfer. © PDA, Inc. 2016.
From a public health perspective, food safety is the overall goal and there are two distinct areas where interventions to this end can take place – either pre- or post-harvest. In pre-harvest, water quality management is the focus whereas post-harvest quality management depends ...
This report documents the actions taken by transportation agencies in response to the earthquake in Northridge, California on January 17, 1994, and is part of a larger effort to examine the impacts of catastrophic events on transportation system faci...
Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy
Competing with analytics - Can the insurance market take advantage of seasonal or "near-term" forecasting and temporal changes in risk? Natural perils (re)insurance has been based on models following climatology i.e. the long-term "historical" average. This is opposed to considering the "near-term" and forecasting hazard and risk for the seasons or years to come. Variability and short-term changes in risk are deemed abundant for almost all perils. In addition to hydrometeorological perils whose changes are vastly discussed, earthquake activity might also change over various time-scales affected by earlier local (or even global) events, regional changes in the distribution of stresses and strains and more. Only recently has insurance risk modeling of (stochastic) hurricane-years or extratropical-storm-years started considering our ability to forecast climate variability herewith taking advantage of apparent correlations between climate indicators and the activity of storm events. Once some of these "near-term measures" were in the market, rating agencies and regulators swiftly adopted these concepts demanding companies to deploy a selection of more conservative "time-dependent" models. This was despite the fact that the ultimate effect of some of these measures on insurance risk was not well understood. Apparent short-term success over the last years in near-term seasonal hurricane forecasting was brought to a halt in 2013 when these models failed to forecast the exceptional shortage of hurricanes herewith contradicting an active-year forecast. The focus of earthquake forecasting has in addition been mostly on high rather than low temporal and regional activity despite the fact that avoiding losses does not by itself create a product. This presentation sheds light on new risk management concepts for over-regional and global (re)insurance portfolios that take advantage of forecasting changes in risk. The presentation focuses on the "upside" and on new opportunities
Carmona, María; Mañez, María
Risk is generally defined as the "combination of the probability of the occurrence of an event and its negative consequences" ( UNISDR, 2009). However, the perception of a risk differs among cultures regarding different features such as the context,causes, benefits or damage. Risk perception is the subjective valuation of the probability of an event happening and how concerned individuals or groups are with the consequences (Sjöberg, 2004). Our study is based on an existing framework for risk perception (Rehn and Rohrmann, 2000). We analyse the characteristics of the risk perception regarding extreme events (e.g.droughts) and how the perception of the group drives the action to manage the risk. We do this to achieve an overview of the conditions that let stakeholders join each other to improve risk management especially when governments are not reacting properly. For our research, attention is paid on risk perception of Multi-Sector Partnerships not taking into account the individual level of risk perception. We focus on those factors that make risk management effective and increase resilience. Multi-Sector Partnerships, considered as significant governance structures for risk management, might contribute to reduce vulnerability in prone areas to natural hazards and disasters. The Multi-Sector Partnerships used for our research are existing partnerships identified in the cases studies of the European project ENHANCE. We implement a survey to analyse the perception of risk in the case studies. That survey is based on the Cultural Theory (Douglas and Wildavsky, 1982)and the Protection Motivation Theory (Rogers, 1975). We analyse the results using the Qualitative-Comparative Analysis proposed by Ragin in 1987. The results show the main characteristics of a risk culture that are beneficial to manage a risk. Those characteristics are shaped by the perception of risk of the people involved in the partnership, which in turn shapes their risk management. Nevertheless, we
Fuller, Colin; Drawer, Scott
The process of risk management can be implemented as part of a best practice management system within the sport and leisure sector. The process enables risk factors that might lead to injuries to be identified and the levels of risk associated with activities to be estimated and evaluated. This information can be utilised proactively by sports governing bodies and participants to identify preventive and therapeutic interventions in order to reduce the frequency of occurrence and/or severity of injuries within their sports. The acceptability of risk within specific sports, however, is dependent on the perceptions of the participants involved. Copyright 2004 Adis Data Information BV
September 26, 1997. The Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management, which was mandated as part of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, was disbanded on August 31, 1997, with some staff work continuing into September. The reports and asso...
WN911NF-10-2-0104 FLOOD RISK AND ASSET MANGEMENT ----Approved for Public Release, distribution unlimited PN 01 1 R. 1.0 WN911NF-10-2-0104... MANGEMENT PN 01 2 R. 1.0 Contents 1. Progress statement...DTM Ground model of the St Paul, Minnesota Study Area. WN911NF-10-2-0104 FLOOD RISK AND ASSET MANGEMENT PN 01 3 R. 1.0 Figure 2
Jordan, T.H.; Marzocchi, W.; Michael, A.J.; Gerstenberger, M.C.
We cannot yet predict large earthquakes in the short term with much reliability and skill, but the strong clustering exhibited in seismic sequences tells us that earthquake probabilities are not constant in time; they generally rise and fall over periods of days to years in correlation with nearby seismic activity. Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about these time‐dependent probabilities to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The goal of OEF is to inform the decisions that people and organizations must continually make to mitigate seismic risk and prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes on time scales from days to decades. To fulfill this role, OEF must provide a complete description of the seismic hazard—ground‐motion exceedance probabilities as well as short‐term rupture probabilities—in concert with the long‐term forecasts of probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis (PSHA).
This research focuses on how to manage the risks of project costs and revenue uncertainties over the long-term, and identifies significant : process improvements to ensure projects are delivered on time and as intended, thus maximizing the miles pave...
Fisher, K.; Greanias, G.; Rose, J.; Dumas, R.
This paper describes the approach used in designing and adapting the SIRTF prototype, discusses some of the lessons learned in developing the SIRTF prototype, and explains the adaptability of the risk management database to varying levels project complexity.
This workbook provide government employees background information related to tort liability and risk management. Past experience with lawsuits against government entities are summarized. The reasons for the lawsuits and results are analyzed. The obje...
This factsheet helps small businesses comply with the regulation requiring companies that use regulated substances, hazardous chemical such as ammonia and chlorine, to develop a risk management plan, to help prevent accidental toxic or flammable releases.
The jurisdification of medicine is an unstoppable force that finds its visible expression in a medical liability boom which--apart from the negative impact of legal and out-of-court proceedings on the bond of the doctor-patient relationship--bears considerable economic disadvantages for the providers of care. It is therefore necessary to fight in particular the legally influenced causes of medical liability for which risk management seems to be a suitable, effective tool. As the examples taken from the jurisdiction in the organisational sector will demonstrate, risk management pinpoints the sources of trouble so that we are able to learn from current errors and provide appropriate remedies for the future. Risk management, though, is not a "unique event", but a dynamic, repetitive process that has to be institutionally secured by appointing a risk manager so that the proposals discussed, recommendations and essential measures can actually be implemented.
Jones, M.; Pitts, R.
For emergency managers, government officials, and others who must respond to rapidly changing natural disasters, timely access to detailed information related to affected terrain, population and infrastructure is critical for planning, response and recovery operations. Accessing, analyzing and disseminating such disparate information in near real-time are critical decision support components. However, finding a way to handle a variety of informative yet complex datasets poses a challenge when preparing for and responding to disasters. Here, we discuss the implementation of a web-based data integration and decision support tool for earthquakes developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) as a solution to some of these challenges. While earthquakes are among the most well- monitored and measured of natural hazards, the spatially broad impacts of shaking, ground deformation, landslides, liquefaction, and even tsunamis, are extremely difficult to quantify without accelerated access to data, modeling, and analytics. This web-based application, deemed the "Earthquake Incident Journal", provides real-time access to authoritative and event-specific data from external (e.g. US Geological Survey, NASA, state and local governments, etc.) and internal (FEMA) data sources. The journal includes a GIS-based model for exposure analytics, allowing FEMA to assess the severity of an event, estimate impacts to structures and population in near real-time, and then apply planning factors to exposure estimates to answer questions such as: What geographic areas are impacted? Will federal support be needed? What resources are needed to support survivors? And which infrastructure elements or essential facilities are threatened? This presentation reviews the development of the Earthquake Incident Journal, detailing the data integration solutions, the methodology behind the GIS-based automated exposure model, and the planning factors as well as other analytical advances that
Thompson, M.; Calkin, D. E.; Hand, M. S.; Kreitler, J.
In this presentation we address federal wildfire risk management largely through the lens of economics, targeting questions related to costs, effectiveness, efficiency, and tradeoffs. Beyond risks to resources and assets such as wildlife habitat, watersheds, and homes, wildfires present financial risk and budgetary instability for federal wildfire management agencies due to highly variable annual suppression costs. Despite its variability, the costs of wildfire management have continued to escalate and account for an ever-growing share of overall agency budgets, compromising abilities to attain other objectives related to forest health, recreation, timber management, etc. Trends associated with a changing climate and human expansion into fire-prone areas could lead to additional suppression costs in the future, only further highlighting the need for an ability to evaluate economic tradeoffs in investments across the wildfire management spectrum. Critically, these economic analyses need to accurately capture the complex spatial and stochastic aspects of wildfire, the inherent uncertainty associated with monetizing environmental impacts of wildfire, the costs and effectiveness of alternative management policies, and linkages between pre-fire investments and active incident management. Investing in hazardous fuels reduction and forest restoration in particular is a major policy lever for pre-fire risk mitigation, and will be a primary focus of our presentation. Evaluating alternative fuel management and suppression policies could provide opportunities for significant efficiency improvements in the development of risk-informed management fire management strategies. Better understanding tradeoffs of fire impacts and costs can help inform policy questions such as how much of the landscape to treat and how to balance investments in treating new areas versus maintaining previous investments. We will summarize current data needs, knowledge gaps, and other factors
Electronics Engineers (IEEE) to harmonize the standards for software (IEEE 12207 ) and system (IEEE 15288) life-cycle processes. A goal of this harmonization...management ( ISO /IEC 16085) is being generalized to apply to the systems level. The revised, generalized standard will add require- ments and guidance for the...risk management. The documents include the following: • ISO /IEC Guide 73: Risk Management—Vocabulary—Guidelines for use in stan- dards [ ISO 02
Wagner, M; Strube, I
With the continuous restructuring of the water market due to liberalisation, privatisation and internationalisation processes, the requirements on waste water disposal companies have grown. Increasing competition requires a target-oriented and clearly structured procedure. At the same time it is necessary to meet the environment-relevant legal requirements and to design the processes to be environment-oriented. The implementation of risk management and the integration of such a management instrument in an existing system in addition to the use of modern technologies and procedures can help to make the operation of the waste water treatment safer and consequently strengthen market position. The risk management process consists of three phases, risk identification, risk analysis/risk assessment and risk handling, which are based on each other, as well as of the risk managing. To achieve an identification of the risks as complete as possible, a subdivision of the kind of risks (e.g. legal, financial, market, operational) is suggested. One possibility to assess risks is the portfolio method which offers clear representation. It allows a division of the risks into classes showing which areas need handling. The determination of the appropriate measures to handle a risk (e.g. avoidance, reduction, shift) is included in the concluding third phase. Different strategies can be applied here. On the one hand, the cause-oriented strategy, aiming at preventive measures which aim to reduce the probability of occurrence of a risk (e.g. creation of redundancy, systems with low susceptibility to malfunction). On the other hand, the effect-oriented strategy, aiming to minimise the level of damage in case of an undesired occurrence (e.g. use of alarm systems, insurance cover).
Issues in Japan's disaster management system were revealed by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, and by the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station accident. Many important decisions were based on scientific data, but appear not to have sufficiently considered the uncertainties of the data and the societal aspects of the problems. The issues that arose show the need for scientists to appropriately deal with risk communication and geoethics and issues. This paper discusses necessity of education for risk communication, geoethics and decisions science in school before students become sicentific decision makers in future.
Haeussler, Peter J.; Plafker, George
Earthquake risk is high in much of the southern half of Alaska, but it is not the same everywhere. This map shows the overall geologic setting in Alaska that produces earthquakes. The Pacific plate (darker blue) is sliding northwestward past southeastern Alaska and then dives beneath the North American plate (light blue, green, and brown) in southern Alaska, the Alaska Peninsula, and the Aleutian Islands. Most earthquakes are produced where these two plates come into contact and slide past each other. Major earthquakes also occur throughout much of interior Alaska as a result of collision of a piece of crust with the southern margin.
Stein, R. S.
The 2004 M=9.2 Sumatra earthquake claimed what seemed an unfathomable 228,000 lives, although because of its size, we could at least assure ourselves that it was an extremely rare event. But in the short space of 8 years, the Sumatra quake no longer looks like an anomaly, and it is no longer even the worst disaster of the Century: 80,000 deaths in the 2005 M=7.6 Pakistan quake; 88,000 deaths in the 2008 M=7.9 Wenchuan, China quake; 316,000 deaths in the M=7.0 Haiti, quake. In each case, poor design and construction were unable to withstand the ferocity of the shaken earth. And this was compounded by inadequate rescue, medical care, and shelter. How could the toll continue to mount despite the advances in our understanding of quake risk? The world's population is flowing into megacities, and many of these migration magnets lie astride the plate boundaries. Caught between these opposing demographic and seismic forces are 50 cities of at least 3 million people threatened by large earthquakes, the targets of chance. What we know for certain is that no one will take protective measures unless they are convinced they are at risk. Furnishing that knowledge is the animating principle of the Global Earthquake Model, launched in 2009. At the very least, everyone should be able to learn what his or her risk is. At the very least, our community owes the world an estimate of that risk. So, first and foremost, GEM seeks to raise quake risk awareness. We have no illusions that maps or models raise awareness; instead, earthquakes do. But when a quake strikes, people need a credible place to go to answer the question, how vulnerable am I, and what can I do about it? The Global Earthquake Model is being built with GEM's new open source engine, OpenQuake. GEM is also assembling the global data sets without which we will never improve our understanding of where, how large, and how frequently earthquakes will strike, what impacts they will have, and how those impacts can be lessened by
Aktan, A. Emin; Comfort, Louise K.; Shanis, Donald S.
This proposal outlines an action plan for risk management in the Delaware Valley Metropolitan Region. This plan is consistent with the goals for strengthening homeland security announced by President Bush, and is designed to complement efforts currently under development by Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency and Department of Health. This plan proposes the formation of a Delaware Valley Risk Management Consortium, representing the critical disciplines and organizations related to risk assessment and management. This group would have membership from academic institutions, government agencies, industry, and nonprofit organizations. This Consortium would develop a systemic scope of work with the appropriate recommendations for technology acquisition, development and integration with risk management policies and procedures. This scope of work would include the development of two related information systems for the Delaware Valley Region. The first would be a comprehensive 'health monitoring' system to assess the continuity of operations, which would use integrated remote sensing and imaging, information gathering, communication, computation, and, information processing and management over wide-area networks covering the entire metropolitan area. The second would use real-time information from the health monitoring system to support interactive communication, search and information exchange needed to coordinate action among the relevant agencies to mitigate risk, respond to hazards and manage its resources efficiently and effectively.
Une, Hiroshi; Nakano, Takayuki
Geographic location is one of the most fundamental and indispensable information elements in the field of disaster response and prevention. For example, in the case of the Tohoku Earthquake in 2011, aerial photos taken immediately after the earthquake greatly improved information sharing among different government offices and facilitated rescue and recovery operations, and maps prepared after the disaster assisted in the rapid reconstruction of affected local communities. Thanks to the recent development of geospatial information technology, this information has become more essential for disaster response activities. Advancements in web mapping technology allows us to better understand the situation by overlaying various location-specific data on base maps on the web and specifying the areas on which activities should be focused. Through 3-D modelling technology, we can have a more realistic understanding of the relationship between disaster and topography. Geospatial information technology can sup-port proper preparation and emergency responses against disasters by individuals and local communities through hazard mapping and other information services using mobile devices. Thus, geospatial information technology is playing a more vital role on all stages of disaster risk management and responses. In acknowledging geospatial information's vital role in disaster risk reduction, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, adopted at the Third United Nations World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction, repeatedly reveals the importance of utilizing geospatial information technology for disaster risk reduction. This presentation aims to report the recent practical applications of geospatial information technology for disaster risk management and responses.
Pokorny, Frank M.
As an intern this summer in the GRC Risk Management Office, I have become familiar with the NASA Continuous Risk Management Process. In this process, risk is considered in terms of the probability that an undesired event will occur and the impact of the event, should it occur (ref., NASA-NPG: 7120.5). Risk management belongs in every part of every project and should be ongoing from start to finish. Another key point is that a risk is not a problem until it has happened. With that in mind, there is a six step cycle for continuous risk management that prevents risks from becoming problems. The steps are: identify, analyze, plan, track, control, and communicate & document. Incorporated in the first step are several methods to identify risks such as brainstorming and using lessons learned. Once a risk is identified, a risk statement is made on a risk information sheet consisting of a single condition and one or more consequences. There can also be a context section where the risk is explained in more detail. Additionally there are three main goals of analyzing a risk, which are evaluate, classify, and prioritize. Here is where a value is given to the attributes of a risk &e., probability, impact, and timeframe) based on a multi-level classification system (e.g., low, medium, high). It is important to keep in mind that the definitions of these levels are probably different for each project. Furthermore the risks can be combined into groups. Then, the risks are prioritized to see what risk is necessary to mitigate first. After the risks are analyzed, a plan is made to mitigate as many risks as feasible. Each risk should be assigned to someone in the project with knowledge in the area of the risk. Then the possible approaches to choose from are: research, accept, watch, or mitigate. Next, all risks, mitigated or not, are tracked either individually or in groups. As the plan is executed, risks are re-evaluated, and the attribute values are adjusted as necessary. Metrics
Bacha, Obiyathulla Ismath
Despite the impressive growth of Islamic Banking and Finance (IBF), a number of weaknesses remain. The most important of this is perhaps the lack of shariah compliant risk management tools. While the risk sharing philosophy of Islamic Finance requires the acceptance of risk to justify returns, the shariah also requires adherents to avoid unnecessary risk-maysir. The requirement to avoid maysir is in essence a call for the prudent management of risk. Contemporary risk management revolves around financial engineering, the building blocks of which are financial derivatives. Despite the proven efficacy of derivatives in the management of risk in the conventional space, shariah scholars appear to be suspicious and uneasy with their use in IBF. Some have imposed outright prohibition of their use. This paper re-examines the issue of contemporary derivative instruments and shariah compliance. The shariah compatibility of derivatives is shown in a number of ways. First, by way of qualitative evaluation of whether derivatives can be made to comply with the key prohibitions of the sharia. Second, by way of comparing the payoff profiles of derivatives with risk sharing finance and Bai Salam contracts. Finally, the equivalence between shariah compliant derivatives like the IPRS and Islamic FX Currency Forwards with conventional ones is presented.
Rubendall, Robert L.
Adventure programs attempt to control or limit injuries in high-risk programming. This risk management has concentrated on the physical safety of participants at the expense of emotional and developmental security. In the zeal for accident-free statistics, a highly controlled, directive approach is created that treats individuals according to a…
Freeman, John G.; And Others
This paper focuses on the development of a counseling intervention for use with youth in managing their anger. The anger-management materials described combine elements of a cognitive-behavioral approach with a process orientation to help at-risk youth maintain a career. It is noted that students are taught a strategy for dealing with anger and…
Lengyel, David M.; Newman, J. S.
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) has combined the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) discipline with innovative knowledge management (KM) practices to more effectively enable the accomplishment of work. CRM enables proactive problem identification and problem solving in the complex world of rocket science. while KM is used to improve this process.
McMullan, Sandra H.
This booklet discusses the risks that educational institutions face in regard to employment discrimination litigation and outlines a program to effectively manage such risks. Institutions need to address three main types of employment discrimination issues: sexual harassment, disability-based discrimination, and age discrimination. To deal with…
Zolfaghari, Mohammad R; Peyghaleh, Elnaz
This article presents a new methodology to implement the concept of equity in regional earthquake risk mitigation programs using an optimization framework. It presents a framework that could be used by decisionmakers (government and authorities) to structure budget allocation strategy toward different seismic risk mitigation measures, i.e., structural retrofitting for different building structural types in different locations and planning horizons. A two-stage stochastic model is developed here to seek optimal mitigation measures based on minimizing mitigation expenditures, reconstruction expenditures, and especially large losses in highly seismically active countries. To consider fairness in the distribution of financial resources among different groups of people, the equity concept is incorporated using constraints in model formulation. These constraints limit inequity to the user-defined level to achieve the equity-efficiency tradeoff in the decision-making process. To present practical application of the proposed model, it is applied to a pilot area in Tehran, the capital city of Iran. Building stocks, structural vulnerability functions, and regional seismic hazard characteristics are incorporated to compile a probabilistic seismic risk model for the pilot area. Results illustrate the variation of mitigation expenditures by location and structural type for buildings. These expenditures are sensitive to the amount of available budget and equity consideration for the constant risk aversion. Most significantly, equity is more easily achieved if the budget is unlimited. Conversely, increasing equity where the budget is limited decreases the efficiency. The risk-return tradeoff, equity-reconstruction expenditures tradeoff, and variation of per-capita expected earthquake loss in different income classes are also presented. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
Galluzzi, Michael C.
Emphasis on KSC ground processing operations, reduced spares up-mass lift requirements and campaign-level flexible path perspective for space systems support as Regolith-based ISM is achieved by; Network modeling for sequencing space logistics and in-space logistics nodal positioning to include feedstock. Economic modeling to assess ISM 3D printing adaption and supply chain risk.
A discussion of fire risks, causes, prevention, and salvage in libraries is presented in text and photographs. A description of some historic library fires demonstrates the value of adequate protection and preparedness programs to minimize loss and damage. The need for fire retardant construction and protection from valdalism and arson are…
Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Stein, Ross
The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe are key to assessing risk more effectively. Through consortium driven global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. The year 2013 has seen the completion of ten global data sets or components addressing various aspects of earthquake hazard and risk, as well as two GEM-related, but independently managed regional projects SHARE and EMME. Notably, the International Seismological Centre (ISC) led the development of a new ISC-GEM global instrumental earthquake catalogue, which was made publicly available in early 2013. It has set a new standard for global earthquake catalogues and has found widespread acceptance and application in the global earthquake community. By the end of 2014, GEM's OpenQuake computational platform will provide the OpenQuake hazard/risk assessment software and integrate all GEM data and information products. The public release of OpenQuake is planned for the end of this 2014, and will comprise the following datasets and models: • ISC-GEM Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (released January 2013) • Global Earthquake History Catalogue [1000-1903] • Global Geodetic Strain Rate Database and Model • Global Active Fault Database • Tectonic Regionalisation Model • Global Exposure Database • Buildings and Population Database • Earthquake Consequences Database • Physical Vulnerabilities Database • Socio-Economic Vulnerability and Resilience Indicators • Seismic
Anwar, Jasim; Mpofu, Elias; Matthews, Lynda R; Shadoul, Ahmed Farah; Brock, Kaye E
The reproductive and mental health of women contributes significantly to their overall well-being. Three of the eight Millennium Development Goals are directly related to reproductive and sexual health while mental disorders make up three of the ten leading causes of disease burden in low and middle-income countries. Among mental disorders, depression and anxiety are two of the most prevalent. In the context of slower progress in achieving Millennium Development Goals in developing countries and the ever-increasing man-made and natural disasters in these areas, it is important to understand the association between reproductive health and mental health among women with post-disaster experiences. This was a cross-sectional study with a sample of 387 women of reproductive age (15-49 years) randomly selected from the October 2005 earthquake affected areas of Pakistan. Data on reproductive health was collected using the Centers for Disease Control reproductive health assessment toolkit. Depression and anxiety were measured using the Hopkins Symptom Checklist-25, while earthquake experiences were captured using the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire. The association of either depression or anxiety with socio-demographic variables, earthquake experiences, reproductive health and access to health facilities was estimated using multivariate logistic regression. Post-earthquake reproductive health events together with economic deprivation, lower family support and poorer access to health care facilities explained a significant proportion of differences in the experiencing of clinical levels of depression and anxiety. For instance, women losing resources for subsistence, separation from family and experiencing reproductive health events such as having a stillbirth, having had an abortion, having had abnormal vaginal discharge or having had genital ulcers, were at significant risk of depression and anxiety. The relationship between women's post-earthquake mental health and
Background The reproductive and mental health of women contributes significantly to their overall well-being. Three of the eight Millennium Development Goals are directly related to reproductive and sexual health while mental disorders make up three of the ten leading causes of disease burden in low and middle-income countries. Among mental disorders, depression and anxiety are two of the most prevalent. In the context of slower progress in achieving Millennium Development Goals in developing countries and the ever-increasing man-made and natural disasters in these areas, it is important to understand the association between reproductive health and mental health among women with post-disaster experiences. Methods This was a cross-sectional study with a sample of 387 women of reproductive age (15-49 years) randomly selected from the October 2005 earthquake affected areas of Pakistan. Data on reproductive health was collected using the Centers for Disease Control reproductive health assessment toolkit. Depression and anxiety were measured using the Hopkins Symptom Checklist-25, while earthquake experiences were captured using the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire. The association of either depression or anxiety with socio-demographic variables, earthquake experiences, reproductive health and access to health facilities was estimated using multivariate logistic regression. Results Post-earthquake reproductive health events together with economic deprivation, lower family support and poorer access to health care facilities explained a significant proportion of differences in the experiencing of clinical levels of depression and anxiety. For instance, women losing resources for subsistence, separation from family and experiencing reproductive health events such as having a stillbirth, having had an abortion, having had abnormal vaginal discharge or having had genital ulcers, were at significant risk of depression and anxiety. Conclusion The relationship between women's post-earthquake
Giuntini, Ronald E.; Storm, Richard E.
The development of a model for the cost-effective management of space venture risks is discussed. The risk assessment and control program of insurance companies is examined. A simplified system development cycle which consists of a conceptual design phase, a preliminary design phase, a final design phase, a construction phase, and a system operations and maintenance phase is described. The model incorporates insurance safety risk methods and reliability engineering, and testing practices used in the development of large aerospace and defense systems.
Reveillere, A. R.; Bertil, D. B.; Douglas, J. D.; Grisanti, L. G.; Lecacheux, S. L.; Monfort, D. M.; Modaressi, H. M.; Müller, H. M.; Rohmer, J. R.; Sedan, O. S.
In France, risk assessments for natural hazards are usually carried out separately and decision makers lack comprehensive information. Moreover, since the cause of the hazard (e.g. meteorological, geological) and the physical phenomenon that causes damage (e.g. inundation, ground shaking) may be fundamentally different, the quantitative comparison of single risk assessments that were not conducted in a compatible framework is not straightforward. Comprehensive comparative risk assessments exist in a few other countries. For instance, the Risk Map Germany project has developed and applied a methodology for quantitatively comparing the risk of relevant natural hazards at various scales (city, state) in Germany. The present on-going work applies a similar methodology to the Pointe-à-Pitre urban area, which represents more than half of the population of Guadeloupe, an overseas region in the French West Indies. Relevant hazards as well as hazard intensity levels differ from continental Europe, which will lead to different conclusions. French West Indies are prone to a large number of hazards, among which hurricanes, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes dominate. Hurricanes cause damage through three phenomena: wind, heavy rainfall and storm surge, the latter having had a preeminent role during the largest historical event in 1928. Seismic risk is characterized by many induced phenomena, among which earthquake shocks dominate. This study proposes a comparison of earthquake and cyclonic storm surge risks. Losses corresponding to hazard intensities having the same probability of occurrence are calculated. They are quantified in a common loss unit, chosen to be the direct economic losses. Intangible or indirect losses are not considered. The methodology therefore relies on (i) a probabilistic hazard assessment, (ii) a loss ratio estimation for the exposed elements and (iii) an economic estimation of these assets. Storm surge hazard assessment is based on the selection of
Vega, Johnny Alexander; Hidalgo, Cesar Augusto
This paper outlines a framework for risk assessment of landslides triggered by earthquakes and rainfall in urban buildings in the city of Medellín - Colombia, applying a model that uses a geographic information system (GIS). We applied a computer model that includes topographic, geological, geotechnical and hydrological features of the study area to assess landslide hazards using the Newmark's pseudo-static method, together with a probabilistic approach based on the first order and second moment method (FOSM). The physical vulnerability assessment of buildings was conducted using structural fragility indexes, as well as the definition of damage level of buildings via decision trees and using Medellin's cadastral inventory data. The probability of occurrence of a landslide was calculated assuming that an earthquake produces horizontal ground acceleration (Ah) and considering the uncertainty of the geotechnical parameters and the soil saturation conditions of the ground. The probability of occurrence was multiplied by the structural fragility index values and by the replacement value of structures. The model implemented aims to quantify the risk caused by this kind of disaster in an area of the city of Medellín based on different values of Ah and an analysis of the damage costs of this disaster to buildings under different scenarios and structural conditions. Currently, 62% of ;Valle de Aburra; where the study area is located is under very low condition of landslide hazard and 38% is under low condition. If all buildings in the study area fulfilled the requirements of the Colombian building code, the costs of a landslide would be reduced 63% compared with the current condition. An earthquake with a return period of 475 years was used in this analysis according to the seismic microzonation study in 2002.
This document describes National Estuary Program partner projects that demonstrate how risk management can be successfully applied to address environmental challenges in our country’s coastal areas.
Feng, Jun; Xia, Zhigui; Zhang, Li; Cheng, Siyuan; Wang, Rubo
The objective of this study was to investigate malaria prevalence after the 2014 earthquakes in Ludian, Yongshan, and Jinggu counties, Yunnan Province, China. We collected and analyzed epidemiological data and made a risk assessment of transmission probability. From January 2005 to July 2015, 87 malaria cases were reported in the three counties, most of which (81.6%) occurred between 2005 and 2009, with five cases reported in Jinggu County between January 2014 and July 2015, of which one case was reported after the earthquake. In addition, no local transmission occurred in the three counties from 2010, and 95.5% of imported malaria occurred in patients who had returned from Myanmar. The townships of Lehong, Qingsheng, and Weiyuan were the main endemic areas in the three counties. The probability of malaria transmission in the three counties was low, but Jinggu County had a higher risk due to the existence of infected patients and an appropriate vector. With sporadic cases reported annually, close monitoring should continue to enhance early detection of a possible malaria outbreak. PMID:26711514
Apurv, T.; Cai, X.
Drought is one of the most expensive natural disasters as it affects many sectors of the economy. The threat posed by droughts is expected to further increase due to increasing water demands fuelled by increasing population and also due to climate change in many regions. Management of the increasing drought risk requires shift from traditional crisis management approaches to long term strategic planning for reduction of drought risk. This study proposes a framework for management of long term drought risk. The framework uses the system based approach proposed by Tsakiris et al. (2013), in which a watershed is considered as a system and different water sources in the watershed (like groundwater, reservoirs, streams etc.) are considered as subsystems associated with certain water requirements of different sectors. Droughts are defined separately for each subsystem considering water availability and requirement. The percentile based drought indicator framework proposed by Steinemann et al. (2015) is used for defining drought for each subsystem, allowing the selection of thresholds, variables of interest, and time scale which are most relevant for stakeholders dependent on a particular subsystem. Future drought risk under different drought management strategies are assessed using hydrologic models that model both hydrologic and human components of a watershed. The robustness of a management strategy is assessed by simulating system response across a wide range of stochastically generated future climate scenarios. The framework is useful for operational drought management as it allows direct management of drought risks with consideration of different water sources and water users. Steinemann, A., Iacobellis, S.F., Cayan, D.R., (2015) "Developing and evaluating drought indicators for decision-making" J. Hydrometeor. 16 (4), 1793-1803 Tsakiris, G, Nalbantis, I, Vangelis, H, Verbeiren, B, Huysmans, M, Tychon, B, Jacquemin, I, Canters, F, Vanderhaegen, S, Engelen, G
Zhuang, Fei; Ding, Biao
Bio-evaluation within the medical device quality/risk management system is a risk analyzing and assessing process. On the basis of data from characterization of materials, scientific literatures, application history, bio-toxicology testing and so on, weighing the benefit and the risk, bio-evaluation does a conclusion to "take" or "quit" the product design. There is no "zero risk" though "no toxicity" always is the most desirable conclusion in a testing report. The application history data is the most comprehensive among the information available, since no testing system can "clone" the human body. In addition, the capital cost has to be taken into account when bringing the sophisticated testing technologies into the evaluating system. Investigating the #G95-1 of FDA CDRH and the changes of ISO 10993-1, the trend to integrate bio-evaluation into a quality/risk management process can be figured out.
Rieger, C.; Byrne, J. M.
Citizen science includes networks of ordinary people acting as sensors, observing and recording information for science. OpenStreetMap is one such sensor network which empowers citizens to collaboratively produce a global picture from free geographic information. The success of this open source software is extended by the development of freely used open databases for the user community. Participating citizens do not require a high level of skill. Final results are processed by professionals following quality assurance protocols before map information is released. OpenStreetMap is not only the cheapest source of timely maps in many cases but also often the only source. This is particularly true in developing countries. Emergency responses to the recent earthquake in Nepal illustrates the value for rapidly updated geographical information. This includes emergency management, damage assessment, post-disaster response, and future risk mitigation. Local disaster conditions (landslides, road closings, bridge failures, etc.) were documented for local aid workers by citizen scientists working remotely. Satellites and drones provide digital imagery of the disaster zone and OpenStreetMap participants shared the data from locations around the globe. For the Nepal earthquake, OpenStreetMap provided a team of volunteers on the ground through their Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team (HOT) which contribute data to the disaster response through smartphones and laptops. This, combined with global citizen science efforts, provided immediate geographically useful maps to assist aid workers, including the Red Cross and Canadian DART Team, and the Nepalese government. As of August 2014, almost 1.7 million users provided over 2.5 billion edits to the OpenStreetMap map database. Due to the increased usage of smartphones, GPS-enabled devices, and the growing participation in citizen science projects, data gathering is proving an effective way to contribute as a global citizen. This paper
Even starting from the purpose of restoring the damage caused by a natural disaster, the post-earthquake reconstructions imply the risk of triggering a set of social disasters that may affect the public health sphere. In the case of the L'Aquila earthquake this risk seems to emerge within the urban planning on two levels of dwelling: at a landscape level, where there has been a change in the shape of the city towards a sprawling-sprinkling process; at an architectural level, on the problematic relationship between the politics and the poetics of cultural heritage protection and the goal to get restoration works capable to ensure the citizens seismic safety.
production, cited by 40 percent • natural disasters, including earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, tornados, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions , cited by... volcanic eruption in Iceland, which are peripherally connected to the global supply network, can also create disruptions that require management...reduced Volcanic eruptions Flight cancellations Floods Capacities of high-tech and automotive industries reduced Labor unrest Chinese factory riots
Mechler, R.; Hochrainer, S.; Pflug, G.; Linnerooth-Bayer, J.
The public sector plays a major role in reducing the long-term economic repercussions of disasters by repairing damaged infrastructure and providing financial assistance to households and businesses. If critical infrastructure is not repaired in a timely manner, there can be serious effects on the economy and the livelihoods of the population. The repair of public infrastructure, however, can be a significant drain on public budgets especially in developing and transition countries. Developing country governments frequently lack the liquidity, even including international aid and loans, to fully repair damaged critical public infrastructure or provide sufficient support to households and businesses for their recovery. The earthquake in Gujarat, and other recent cases of government post-disaster liquidity crises, have sounded an alarm, prompting financial development organizations, such as the World Bank, among others, to call for greater attention to reducing financial vulnerability and increasing the resilience of the public sector. This talk reports on a model designed to illustrate the tradeoffs and choices a developing country must make in financially managing the economic risks due to natural disasters. Budgetary resources allocated to pre-disaster risk management strategies, such as loss mitigation measures, a catastrophe reserve fund, insurance and contingent credit arrangements for public assets, reduce the probability of financing gaps - the inability of governments to meet their full obligations in providing relief to private victims and restoring public infrastructure - or prevent the deterioration of the ability to undertake additional borrowing without incurring a debt crisis. The model -which is equipped with a graphical interface - can be a helpful tool for building capacity of policy makers for developing and assessing public financing strategies for disaster risk by indicating the respective costs and consequences of financing alternatives.
Nath, Sankar Kumar; Srivastava, Nishtha; Ghatak, Chitralekha; Adhikari, Manik Das; Ghosh, Ambarish; Sinha Ray, S. P.
Liquefaction-induced ground failure is one amongst the leading causes of infrastructure damage due to the impact of large earthquakes in unconsolidated, non-cohesive, water saturated alluvial terrains. The city of Kolkata is located on the potentially liquefiable alluvial fan deposits of Ganga-Bramhaputra-Meghna Delta system with subsurface litho-stratigraphic sequence comprising of varying percentages of clay, cohesionless silt, sand, and gravel interbedded with decomposed wood and peat. Additionally, the region has moderately shallow groundwater condition especially in the post-monsoon seasons. In view of burgeoning population, there had been unplanned expansion of settlements in the hazardous geological, geomorphological, and hydrological conditions exposing the city to severe liquefaction hazard. The 1897 Shillong and 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquakes both of M w 8.1 reportedly induced Modified Mercalli Intensity of IV-V and VI-VII respectively in the city reportedly triggering widespread to sporadic liquefaction condition with surface manifestation of sand boils, lateral spreading, ground subsidence, etc., thus posing a strong case for liquefaction potential analysis in the terrain. With the motivation of assessing seismic hazard, vulnerability, and risk of the city of Kolkata through a consorted federal funding stipulated for all the metros and upstart urban centers in India located in BIS seismic zones III, IV, and V with population more than one million, an attempt has been made here to understand the liquefaction susceptibility condition of Kolkata under the impact of earthquake loading employing modern multivariate techniques and also to predict deterministic liquefaction scenario of the city in the event of a probabilistic seismic hazard condition with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years and a return period of 475 years. We conducted in-depth geophysical and geotechnical investigations in the city encompassing 435 km2 area. The stochastically
Sun, Niuyun; Wang, Li; Zhou, Jun; Yuan, Qiang; Zhang, Zongjiu; Li, Youping; Liang, Minghui; Cheng, Lan; Gao, Guangming; Cui, Xiaohui
Interpretation of the growing body of global literature on health care risk is compromised by a lack of common understanding and language. This series of articles aims to comprehensively compare laws and regulations, institutional management, and administration of incidence reporting systems on medical risk management in the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Australia, and Taiwan, so as to provide evidence and recommendations for health care risk management policy in China. We searched the official websites of the healthcare risk management agencies of the four countries and one district for laws, regulatory documents, research reports, reviews and evaluation forms concerned with healthcare risk management and assessment. Descriptive comparative analysis was performed on relevant documents. A total of 146 documents were included in this study, including 2 laws (1.4%), 17 policy documents (11.6%), 41 guidance documents (28.1%), 37 reviews (25.3%), and 49 documents giving general information (33.6%). The United States government implemented one law and one rule of patient safety management, while the United Kingdom and Australia each issued professional guidances on patient safety improvement. The four countries implemented patient safety management policy on four different levels: national, state/province, hospital, and non-governmental organization. The four countries and one district adopted four levels of patient safety management, and the administration modes can be divided into an "NGO-led mode" represented by the United States and Canada and a "government-led mode" represented by the United Kingdom, Australia, and Taiwan. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd and Chinese Cochrane Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University.
Tramutoli, V.; Inan, S.; Jakowski, N.; Pulinets, S. A.; Romanov, A.; Filizzola, C.; Shagimuratov, I.; Pergola, N.; Ouzounov, D. P.; Papadopoulos, G. A.; Parrot, M.; Genzano, N.; Lisi, M.; Alparlsan, E.; Wilken, V.; Tsybukia, K.; Romanov, A.; Paciello, R.; Zakharenkova, I.; Romano, G.
The integration of different observations together with the refinement of data analysis methods, is generally expected to improve our present knowledge of preparatory phases of earthquakes and of their possible precursors. This is also the main goal of PRE-EARTHQUAKES (Processing Russian and European EARTH observations for earthQUAKE precursors Studies) the FP7 Project which, to this aim, committed together, different international expertise and observational capabilities, in the last 2 years. In the learning phase of the project, different parameters (e.g. thermal anomalies, total electron content, radon concentration, etc.), measured from ground and satellite systems and analyzed by using different data analysis approaches, have been studied for selected geographic areas and specific seismic events in the past. Since July 2012 the PRIME (PRE-EARTHQUAKES Real-time Integration and Monitoring Experiment) started attempting to perform, on the base of independent observations collected and integrated in real-time through the PEG (PRE-EARTHQUAKES Geo-portal), a Dynamic Assessment of Seismic Risk (DASR) on selected geographic areas of Europe (Italy-Greece-Turkey) and Asia (Kamchatka, Sakhalin, Japan). In this paper, results so far achieved as well as the potential and opportunities they open for a worldwide Earthquake Observation System (EQuOS) - as a dedicated component of GEOSS (Global Earth Observation System of Systems) - will be presented.
McCormick, Cynthia G; Henningfield, Jack E; Haddox, J David; Varughese, Sajan; Lindholm, Anders; Rosen, Susan; Wissel, Janne; Waxman, Deborah; Carter, Lawrence P; Seeger, Vickie; Johnson, Rolley E
The development and implementation of programs in the U.S. to minimize risks and assess unintended consequences of new medications has been increasingly required by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) since the mid 1990s. This paper provides four case histories of risk management and post-marketing surveillance programs utilized recently to address problems associated with possible abuse, dependence and diversion. The pharmaceutical sponsors of each of these drugs were invited to present their programs and followed a similar template for their summaries that are included in this article. The drugs and presenting companies were OxyContin, an analgesic marketed by Purdue Pharma L.P., Daytrana and Vyvanse, ADHD medications marketed by Shire Pharmaceuticals, Xyrem for narcolepsy marketed by Jazz Pharmaceuticals, and Subutex and Suboxone for opioid dependence marketed by Reckitt Benckiser Pharmaceuticals Inc. These case histories and subsequent discussions provide invaluable real-world examples and illustrate both the promise of risk management programs in providing a path to market and/or for keeping on the market drugs with serious potential risks. They also illustrate the limitations of such programs in actually controlling unintended consequences, as well as the challenge of finding the right balance of reducing risks without posing undue barriers to patient access. These experiences are highly relevant as the FDA increasingly requires pharmaceutical sponsors to develop and implement the more formalized and enforceable versions of the risk management term Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS).
Research related to the ecological risk management of sediment stress in watersheds is placed under a common conceptual framework in order to help promote the timely advance of decision support methods for aquatic resource managers and watershed-level planning. The proposed risk ...
Horan, Richard D.; Fenichel, Eli P.; Finnoff, David; Wolf, Christopher A.
There is growing concern that trade, by connecting geographically isolated regions, unintentionally facilitates the spread of invasive pathogens and pests – forms of biological pollution that pose significant risks to ecosystem and human health. We use a bioeconomic framework to examine whether trade always increases private risks, focusing specifically on pathogen risks from live animal trade. When the pathogens have already established and traders bear some private risk, we find two results that run counter to the conventional wisdom on trade. First, uncertainty about the disease status of individual animals held in inventory may increase the incentives to trade relative to the disease-free case. Second, trade may facilitate reduced long-run disease prevalence among buyers. These results arise because disease risks are endogenous due to dynamic feedback processes involving valuable inventories, and markets facilitate the management of private risks that producers face with or without trade. PMID:25914431
Baiardi, Fabrizio; Telmon, Claudio; Sgandurra, Daniele
This paper discusses risk modeling and risk management in information and communications technology (ICT) systems for which the attack impact distribution is heavy tailed (e.g., power law distribution) and the average risk is unbounded. Systems with these properties include billing infrastructures used to charge customers for services they access. Attacks against billing infrastructures can be classified as peripheral attacks and backbone attacks. The goal of a peripheral attack is to tamper with user bills; a backbone attack seeks to seize control of the billing infrastructure. The probability distribution of the overall impact of an attack on a billing infrastructure also has a heavy-tailed curve. This implies that the probability of a massive impact cannot be ignored and that the average impact may be unbounded - thus, even the most expensive countermeasures would be cost effective. Consequently, the only strategy for managing risk is to increase the resilience of the infrastructure by employing redundant components.
Hollingsworth, Kristen; Toscani, Michael
The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the primary regulatory responsibility to ensure that medications are safe and effective both prior to drug approval and while the medication is being actively marketed by manufacturers. The responsibility for safe medications prior to marketing was signed into law in 1938 under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act; however, a significant risk management evolution has taken place since 1938. Additional federal rules, entitled the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act, were established in 2007 and extended the government's oversight through the addition of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for certain drugs. REMS is a mandated strategy to manage a known or potentially serious risk associated with a medication or biological product. Reasons for this extension of oversight were driven primarily by the FDA's movement to ensure that patients and providers are better informed of drug therapies and their specific benefits and risks prior to initiation. This article provides an historical perspective of the evolution of medication risk management policy and includes a review of REMS programs, an assessment of the positive and negative aspects of REMS, and provides suggestions for planning and measuring outcomes. In particular, this publication presents an overview of the evolution of the REMS program and its implications.
Hyman, Jon L; Luks, Howard J; Sechrest, Randale
The rapidly developing array of online physician-only communities represents a potential extraordinary advance in the availability of educational and informational resources to physicians. These online communities provide physicians with a new range of controls over the information they process, but use of this social media technology carries some risk. The purpose of this review was to help physicians manage the risks of online professional networking and discuss the potential benefits that may come with such networks. This article explores the risks and benefits of physicians engaging in online professional networking with peers and provides suggestions on risk management. Through an Internet search and literature review, we scrutinized available case law, federal regulatory code, and guidelines of conduct from professional organizations and consultants. We reviewed the OrthoMind.com site as a case example because it is currently the only online social network exclusively for orthopaedic surgeons. Existing case law suggests potential liability for orthopaedic surgeons who engage with patients on openly accessible social network platforms. Current society guidelines in both the United States and Britain provide sensible rules that may mitigate such risks. However, the overall lack of a strong body of legal opinions, government regulations as well as practical experience for most surgeons limit the suitability of such platforms. Closed platforms that are restricted to validated orthopaedic surgeons may limit these downside risks and hence allow surgeons to collaborate with one another both as clinicians and practice owners. Educating surgeons about the pros and cons of participating in these networking platforms is helping them more astutely manage risks and optimize benefits. This evolving online environment of professional interaction is one of few precedents, but the application of risk management strategies that physicians use in daily practice carries over
Worthington, Patricia H; Gilbert, Karen A
Parenteral nutrition is a life-saving modality, but one that also carries risks for potentially life-threatening complications. Comprehensive management of patients receiving parenteral nutrition includes careful selection of candidates, individualizing formulas to meet patients' unique needs, monitoring response to therapy, and implementing strategies designed to avoid complications. Measures to mitigate the risk of central line-associated bloodstream infections are particularly important. As with all complex therapies, a collaborative, multidisciplinary approach promotes optimal outcomes.
Over 500,000 people died in the last decade due to earthquakes and tsunamis, mostly in the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth. In many seismic regions, no hazard and risk models exist, and even where models do exist, they are intelligible only by experts, or available only for commercial purposes. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) answers the need for an openly accessible risk management tool. GEM is an internationally sanctioned public private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which will establish an authoritative standard for calculating and communicating earthquake hazard and risk, and will be designed to serve as the critical instrument to support decisions and actions that reduce earthquake losses worldwide. GEM will integrate developments on the forefront of scientific and engineering knowledge of earthquakes, at global, regional and local scale. The work is organized in three modules: hazard, risk, and socio-economic impact. The hazard module calculates probabilities of earthquake occurrence and resulting shaking at any given location. The risk module calculates fatalities, injuries, and damage based on expected shaking, building vulnerability, and the distribution of population and of exposed values and facilities. The socio-economic impact module delivers tools for making educated decisions to mitigate and manage risk. GEM will be a versatile online tool, with open source code and a map-based graphical interface. The underlying data will be open wherever possible, and its modular input and output will be adapted to multiple user groups: scientists and engineers, risk managers and decision makers in the public and private sectors, and the public-at- large. GEM will be the first global model for seismic risk assessment at a national and regional scale, and aims to achieve broad scientific participation and independence. Its development will occur in a
Grech, Michelle Rita
It is evident that despite efforts directed at mitigating the risk of fatigue through the adoption of hours of work and rest regulations and development of codes and guidelines, fatigue still remains a concern in shipping. Lack of fatigue management has been identified as a contributory factor in a number of recent accidents. This is further substantiated through research reports with shortfalls highlighted in current fatigue management approaches. These approaches mainly focus on prescriptive hours of work and rest and include an individualistic approach to managing fatigue. The expectation is that seafarers are responsible to manage and tolerate fatigue as part of their working life at sea. This attitude is an accepted part of a seafarer’s role. Poor compliance is one manifest of this problem with shipboard demands making it hard for seafarers to follow hours of work and rest regulations, forcing them into this “poor compliance” trap. This makes current fatigue management approaches ineffective. This paper proposes a risk based approach and way forward for the implementation of a fatigue risk management framework for shipping, aiming to support the hours of work and rest requirements. This forms part of the work currently underway to review and update the International Maritime Organization, Guidelines on Fatigue. PMID:26840326
Grech, Michelle Rita
It is evident that despite efforts directed at mitigating the risk of fatigue through the adoption of hours of work and rest regulations and development of codes and guidelines, fatigue still remains a concern in shipping. Lack of fatigue management has been identified as a contributory factor in a number of recent accidents. This is further substantiated through research reports with shortfalls highlighted in current fatigue management approaches. These approaches mainly focus on prescriptive hours of work and rest and include an individualistic approach to managing fatigue. The expectation is that seafarers are responsible to manage and tolerate fatigue as part of their working life at sea. This attitude is an accepted part of a seafarer's role. Poor compliance is one manifest of this problem with shipboard demands making it hard for seafarers to follow hours of work and rest regulations, forcing them into this "poor compliance" trap. This makes current fatigue management approaches ineffective. This paper proposes a risk based approach and way forward for the implementation of a fatigue risk management framework for shipping, aiming to support the hours of work and rest requirements. This forms part of the work currently underway to review and update the International Maritime Organization, Guidelines on Fatigue.
Yahya Menteşe, Emin; Kılıç, Osman; Baş, Mahmut; Khazai, Bijan; Ergün Konukcu, Betul; Emre Basmacı, Ahmet
Decision makers need tools to understand the priorities and to set up benchmarks and track progress in their disaster risk reduction activities, so that they can justify their decisions and investments. In this regard, Megacity Indicator System for Disaster Risk Management (MegaIST), is developed in order to be used in disaster risk management studies, for decision makers and managers to establish right strategies and proper risk reduction actions, enhance resource management and investment decisions, set priorities, monitor progress in DRM and validate decisions taken with the aim of helping disaster oriented urban redevelopment, inform investors about risk profile of the city and providing a basis for dissemination and sharing of risk components with related stakeholders; by Directorate of Earthquake and Ground Research of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM). MegaIST achieves these goals by analyzing the earthquake risk in three separate but complementary sub-categories consisting of "urban seismic risk, coping capacity and disaster risk management index" in an integrated way. MegaIST model fosters its analyses by presenting the outputs in a simple and user friendly format benefiting from GIS technology that ensures the adoptability of the model's use. Urban seismic risk analysis includes two components, namely; Physical Risk and Social Vulnerability Analysis. Physical risk analysis is based on the possible physical losses (such as building damage, casualties etc.) due to an earthquake while social vulnerability is considered as a factor that increases the results of the physical losses in correlation with the level of education, health, economic status and disaster awareness/preparedness of society. Coping capacity analysis is carried out with the aim of understanding the readiness of the Municipality to respond and recover from a disaster in Istanbul can be defined both in terms of the Municipality's operational capacities - the capacity of the
The perioperative system is a complex system that requires people, materials, and processes to come together in a highly ordered and timely manner. However, when working in this high-risk system, even well-organized, knowledgeable, vigilant, and well-intentioned individuals will eventually make errors. All systems need to be evaluated on a continual basis to reduce the risk of errors, make errors more easily recognizable, and provide methods for error mitigation. A simple approach to risk management that may be applied in clinical medicine is discussed.
... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Electricity Subsector Cybersecurity Risk Management Process Guideline AGENCY: Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability, Department of Energy. ACTION: Notice of public... Electricity Subsector Cybersecurity Risk Management Process guideline. The guideline describes a risk...
... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Electricity Subsector Cybersecurity Risk Management Process AGENCY: Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability, Department of Energy. ACTION: Notice of publication. SUMMARY... Electricity Subsector Cybersecurity Risk Management Process guideline. The guideline describes a risk...
Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a quantitative engineering process that provides the analytic structure and decision-making framework for total programmatic risk management. Ideally, it is initiated in the conceptual design phase and used throughout the program life cycle. Although PRA was developed for assessment of safety, reliability, and availability risk, it has far greater application. Throughout the design phase, PRA can guide trade-off studies among system performance, safety, reliability, cost, and schedule. These studies are based on the assessment of the risk of meeting each parameter goal, with full consideration of the uncertainties. Quantitative trade-off studies are essential, but without full identification, propagation, and display of uncertainties, poor decisions may result. PRA also can focus attention on risk drivers in situations where risk is too high. For example, if safety risk is unacceptable, the PRA prioritizes the risk contributors to guide the use of resources for risk mitigation. PRA is used in the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) Program. To meet the stringent requirements of the SEI mission, within strict budgetary constraints, the PRA structure supports informed and traceable decision-making. This paper briefly describes the SEI PRA process.
Outdoor education--be it canoe tripping, adventure programs, field studies or anything else--is inherently risky. Outdoor educators deal with unpredictable settings and situations, where change is constant and outcomes are sometimes uncertain. In this naturalistic environment, their risk management procedures have the potential to break down and…
EPA let a contract for a consultant to collect information about historical changes in operations and maintenance, design and construction, and planning and siting for water and wastewater infrastructure. The goal of this research study is to determine risk management alternativ...
The overall objective of the guidebook is to provide ports with the basic skills and information needed to establish and maintain appropriate and cost-effective insurance and risk management programs. it is designed to serve as a practical "how-to" m...
J. Brenner; D. Carlton; S. McLellan; A. Dozier; T. Spencer; D. Buckley; A. Ralowicz
Floridaâs Wildland Fire Risk Assessment (FRA), which was completed in 2002, is a statewide effort to develop a comprehensive suite of standardized spatial data layers developed to support implementation of a statewide fuels management strategy. By maintaining focus on fire and fuel dynamics for use with scientifically credible local to statewide applications, the FRA...
Hatta, Masumitsu; Kaku, Mitsuo
On 11 March 2011, an earthquake measuring 9.0 on the Richter scale off the northeast coast of Honshu Island, Japan, produced a devastating tsunami that destroyed many towns and villages near the coast in Iwate, Miyagi, and Fukushima prefectures. Miyagi Prefecture was the area most severely devastated by the tsunami, with extensive loss of life and property; hundreds of thousands of people lost their houses and were forced to move to evacuation areas. In the days and weeks following devastating natural disasters, the threat of infectious disease outbreak is high. Rapid diagnostic tests can be performed at or near the site of patient care and the tests were very useful in this disaster, because they enabled us to manage patients appropriately in the settings where medical resources were limited. Here we report actual cases where the rapid diagnostic tests for infectious diseases were useful in the patient management.
Lanza, T.; Crescimbene, M.; La Longa, F.
Italy is a country at risk of impending earthquake in the near future. Very probably, as it has already happened in the 13 years between the last two important seismic events (Colfiorito 1997- L'Aquila 2009), there won't be enough time to solve all the problems connected to seismic risk: first of all the corruption related to politics concerning buildings; the lack of the money necessary to strengthen the already existing ones, historical centres, monuments and the masterpieces of Art; the difficult relations of the Institutions with the traditional media (newspapers, radio and TV) and, at the same time, the new media (web); the difficulties for scientists to reach important results in the immediate future due to the lack of funding and, last but not least, to the conflicting relationships inside the scientific community itself. In this scenario, communication and education play a crucial role in minimizing the risk of the population. In the present work we reconsider the past with the intent of starting to trace a path for a future strategy of risk communication where everybody involved, included the population, should do his best in order to face the next emergency.
The southwestern part of the Ethiopian rift is one of the most seismically and volcanically active tectonic units in East Africa. Notable seismic events have occurred in 2010 and 2011 in Hosanna and Yirgalem, respectively. The main shock of the Hosanna event occurred on December 19, 2010 with magnitude 5.2 mb and was located 15-20 km northwest of the town. It caused significant damage on several buildings in Hosanna and the shaking was felt from Mizan town in the south as far as Addis Ababa in the north. Damages on buildings were sever in walls facing east and west which is sub-parallel to the extension direction of the main Ethiopian rift. Patients rushed out unconsciously from hospitals in Hosanna but luckily no damage on human life was reported. It was also strongly felt in Jimma town and students from Jimma University accommodated at higher floors of the residence buildings were terrified and rushing down where it caused injuries of over 26 students during that event. The seismic activity continued for over a year. The Yirgalem earthquake occurred on March 19, 2011 with magnitude 5.1 mb close to a highly populated area near Yirgalem town and it was widely felt in the area but there was no significant damage except demolishing of loosely plastered walls. The feeling of the residents was complicated by their perception on the famous Tohuku earthquake of March 11, 2011 that occurred a week before and the associated disaster which was widely televised all over the world. Seismologists and geophysicists from Addis Ababa University had to go to the site to make presentations and make some outreach campaigns that saved thousands of residents from fleeing the area. These recent seismic activities in the highly populated main Ethiopian rift were a warning call both for the construction industry and decision makers to create awareness so as to save human life and property from eminent earthquake disasters. This recent seismic activity in southwestern Ethiopia sheds light
This brief abstract reviews the development of the current day approach to human system risk management for space flight and the development of the critical components of this process over the past few years. The human system risk management process now provides a comprehensive assessment of each human system risk by design reference mission (DRM) and is evaluated not only for mission success but also for long-term health impacts for the astronauts. The discipline of bioastronautics is the study of the biological and medical effects of space flight on humans. In 1997, the Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) initiated the Bioastronautics Roadmap (Roadmap) as the "Critical Path Roadmap", and in 1998 participation in the roadmap was expanded to include the National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI) and the external community. A total of 55 risks and 250 questions were identified and prioritized and in 2000, the Roadmap was base-lined and put under configuration control. The Roadmap took into account several major advisory committee reviews including the Institute of Medicine (IOM) "Safe Passage: Astronaut care for Exploration Missions", 2001. Subsequently, three collaborating organizations at NASA HQ (Chief Health and Medical Officer, Office of Space Flight and Office of Biological & Physical Research), published the Bioastronautics Strategy in 2003, that identified the human as a "critical subsystem of space flight" and noted that "tolerance limits and safe operating bands must be established" to enable human space flight. These offices also requested a review by the IOM of the Roadmap and that review was published in October 2005 as "A Risk Reduction Strategy for Human Exploration of Space: A Review of NASA's Bioastronautics Roadmap", that noted several strengths and weaknesses of the Roadmap and made several recommendations. In parallel with the development of the Roadmap, the Office of the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) began a process in
Charoo, Naseem Ahmad; Ali, Areeg Anwer
The objective of ICH Q8, Q9 and Q10 documents is application of systemic and science based approach to formulation development for building quality into product. There is always some uncertainty in new product development. Good risk management practice is essential for success of new product development in decreasing this uncertainty. In quality by design paradigm, the product performance properties relevant to the patient are predefined in target product profile (TPP). Together with prior knowledge and experience, TPP helps in identification of critical quality attributes (CQA's). Initial risk assessment which identifies risks to these CQA's provides impetus for product development. Product and process are designed to gain knowledge about these risks, devise strategies to eliminate or mitigate these risks and meet objectives set in TPP. By laying more emphasis on high risk events the protection level of patient is increased. The process being scientifically driven improves the transparency and reliability of the manufacturer. The focus on risk to the patient together with flexible development approach saves invaluable resources, increases confidence on quality and reduces compliance risk. The knowledge acquired in analysing risks to CQA's permits construction of meaningful design space. Within the boundaries of the design space, variation in critical material characteristics and process parameters must be managed in order to yield a product having the desired characteristics. Specifications based on product and process understanding are established such that product will meet the specifications if tested. In this way, the product is amenable to real time release, since specifications only confirm quality but they do not serve as a means of effective process control.
Mehta, Neha; Dino, Giovanna Antonella; Ajmone-Marsan, Franco; Lasagna, Manuela; Romè, Chiara; De Luca, Domenico Antonio
Abandoned mine sites continue to present serious environmental hazards because the heavy metals associated with extractive waste are continuously released into the environment, where they threaten human life and the environment. Remediating and securing extractive waste are complex, lengthy and costly processes. Thus, in most European countries, a site is considered for intervention when it poses a risk to human health and the surrounding environment. As a consequence, risk analysis presents a viable decisional approach towards the management of extractive waste. To evaluate the effects posed by extractive waste to human health and groundwater, a risk analysis approach was used for an abandoned nickel extraction site in Campello Monti in North Italy. This site is located in the Southern Italian Alps. The area consists of large and voluminous mafic rocks intruded by mantle peridotite. The mining activities in this area have generated extractive waste. A risk analysis of the site was performed using Risk Based Corrective Action (RBCA) guidelines, considering the properties of extractive waste and water for the properties of environmental matrices. The results showed the presence of carcinogenic risk due to arsenic and risks to groundwater due to nickel. The results of the risk analysis form a basic understanding of the current situation at the site, which is affected by extractive waste. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Communicating information about environmental risk to the people most affected by it is one of the major challenges faced by risk managers and community decision makers. Changing human behavior is a far more complex task than designing water retention systems or managing storm wa...
Harris, Margaret; Nilan, Pam; Kirby, Emma
In this article, we address the experiences of female sex workers in urban Australia through analysis of interviews using a feminist approach. Although many previous studies have been conducted, our focus was on the voices of sex workers in an area that was rapidly gentrifying, leading to local community tensions. Intensive analysis of interview transcripts was employed to derive thematic codes for understanding how the women viewed and managed everyday risk in sex work. They were well aware of the health risks associated with sex work. For women working on premises, domain separation between sex work and other life domains was an important management strategy for maintaining self-esteem. For women working on the street, instincts honed by years of dangerous work provided a measure of safety. Our findings have implications for health and other agencies dealing with sex workers in situations in which community pressure is exerted to move sex workers away from the area.
Nakamura, Akihiro; Nozaki, Eiji; Fukui, Shigefumi; Endo, Hideaki; Takahashi, Tohru; Tamaki, Kenji
Strong psychosocial stress is considered to be a precipitating factor in acute coronary events. To assess the hypothesis that the incidence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and its severity was remarkably heightened after the great earthquake, we retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of patients with AMI admitted to our hospital during a 3-week period between March 11 and March 31, 2011 (disaster group) as compared with AMI patients during the corresponding time period of 2010 (non-disaster group). The number of patients with AMI in the disaster group increased by about threefold (22 in the disaster group vs. seven in the non-disaster group). Compared with the previous years 2010 or 2009, the odds ratios [OR] for AMI during a 3-week period in 2011 were 4.40 (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.05-18.35), 5.66 (95 % CI: 1.42-22.59), respectively. Although the number of patients who underwent coronary revascularization was higher in the disaster group than in the non-disaster group (68.2 vs. 42.9 %, p = 0.0397), peak serum creatine kinase (CK)-MB level was significantly higher in the disaster group than in the non-disaster group (208.0 ± 159.0 vs. 149.3 ± 102.7 IU/l, p = 0.0431). In the disaster group, four patients died of cardiac causes, whereas no patient died in the non-disaster group (in-hospital mortality rate in the disaster vs. non-disaster group: 18.2 vs. 0 %, p = 0.0281). These results suggest that patients with AMI after the earthquake might be subject to strong psychosocial stress, and that psychological stress brought on by such disaster could trigger cardiac events and cardiac death.
Nekrasova, A. K.; Kossobokov, V. G.; Parvez, I. A.
For the Himalayas and neighboring regions, the maps of seismic hazard and seismic risk are constructed with the use of the estimates for the parameters of the unified scaling law for earthquakes (USLE), in which the Gutenberg-Richter law for magnitude distribution of seismic events within a given area is applied in the modified version with allowance for linear dimensions of the area, namely, log N( M, L) = A + B (5 - M) + C log L, where N( M, L) is the expected annual number of the earthquakes with magnitude M in the area with linear dimension L. The spatial variations in the parameters A, B, and C for the Himalayas and adjacent regions are studied on two time intervals from 1965 to 2011 and from 1980 to 2011. The difference in A, B, and C between these two time intervals indicates that seismic activity experiences significant variations on a scale of a few decades. With a global consideration of the seismic belts of the Earth overall, the estimates of coefficient A, which determines the logarithm of the annual average frequency of the earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.0 and higher in the zone with a linear dimension of 1 degree of the Earth's meridian, differ by a factor of 30 and more and mainly fall in the interval from -1.1 to 0.5. The values of coefficient B, which describes the balance between the number of earthquakes with different magnitudes, gravitate to 0.9 and range from less than 0.6 to 1.1 and higher. The values of coefficient C, which estimates the fractal dimension of the local distribution of epicenters, vary from 0.5 to 1.4 and higher. In the Himalayas and neighboring regions, the USLE coefficients mainly fall in the intervals of -1.1 to 0.3 for A, 0.8 to 1.3 for B, and 1.0 to 1.4 for C. The calculations of the local value of the expected peak ground acceleration (PGA) from the maximal expected magnitude provided the necessary basis for mapping the seismic hazards in the studied region. When doing this, we used the local estimates of the
Yatsalo, Boris; Sullivan, Terrence; Didenko, Vladimir; Linkov, Igor
The consequences of the Tohuku earthquake and subsequent tsunami in March 2011 caused a loss of power at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, in Japan, and led to the release of radioactive materials into the environment. Although the full extent of the contamination is not currently known, the highly complex nature of the environmental contamination (radionuclides in water, soil, and agricultural produce) typical of nuclear accidents requires a detailed geospatial analysis of information with the ability to extrapolate across different scales with applications to risk assessment models and decision making support. This article briefly summarizes the approach used to inform risk-based land management and remediation decision making after the Chernobyl, Soviet Ukraine, accident in 1986. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.
... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Credit risk management. 704.6 Section 704.6... CREDIT UNIONS § 704.6 Credit risk management. (a) Policies. A corporate credit union must operate according to a credit risk management policy that is commensurate with the investment risks and activities...
Michael S. Hand; Matthew J. Wibbenmeyer; Dave Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson
Wildfires present a complex applied risk management environment, but relatively little attention has been paid to behavioral and cognitive responses to risk among public agency wildfire managers. This study investigates responses to risk, including probability weighting and risk aversion, in a wildfire management context using a survey-based experiment administered to...
The ecosystem services (ES) concept holds much promise for environmental decision making. Even so, the concept has yet to gain full traction in the decisions and policies of environmental agencies in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere. Here we examine the opportunities for and implications of including ES in risk assessments and the risk management decisions that they inform. We assert that use of ES will: 1) lead to more comprehensive environmental protection; 2) help to articulate the benefits of environmental decisions, policies, and actions; 3) better inform the derivation of environmental quality standards; 4) enable integration of human health and ecological risk assessment; and 5) facilitate horizontal integration of policies, regulations, and programs. We provide the technical basis and supporting rationale for each assertion, relying on examples taken from experiences in the United States and European Union. Specific recommendations are offered for use of ES in risk assessment and risk management, and issues and challenges to advancing use of ES are described along with some of the science needed to improve the value of the ES concept to environmental protection. This paper is one of 4 papers generated from the 2014 Pellston Workshop “Ecosystem Services, Environmental Stressors and Decision Making,” organized jointly by the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry and the Ecological Society of America. The main workshop objective was
Guzik, Amy; Bushnell, Cheryl
Death from stroke has decreased over the past decade, with stroke now the fifth leading cause of death in the United States. In addition, the incidence of new and recurrent stroke is declining, likely because of the increased use of specific prevention medications, such as statins and antihypertensives. Despite these positive trends in incidence and mortality, many strokes remain preventable. The major modifiable risk factors are hypertension, diabetes mellitus, tobacco smoking, and hyperlipidemia, as well as lifestyle factors, such as obesity, poor diet/nutrition, and physical inactivity. This article reviews the current recommendations for the management of each of these modifiable risk factors. It has been documented that some blood pressure medications may increase variability of blood pressure and ultimately increase the risk for stroke. Stroke prevention typically includes antiplatelet therapy (unless an indication for anticoagulation exists), so the most recent evidence supporting use of these drugs is reviewed. In addition, emerging risk factors, such as obstructive sleep apnea, electronic cigarettes, and elevated lipoprotein (a), are discussed. Overall, secondary stroke prevention includes a multifactorial approach. This article incorporates evidence from guidelines and published studies and uses an illustrative case study throughout the article to provide examples of secondary prevention management of stroke risk factors.
Kasckow, John; Felmet, Kandi; Zisook, Sidney
The management of suicide risk in patients with schizophrenia poses many challenges for clinicians. Compared with the general population, these patients have an 8.5-fold greater risk of suicide. This article reviews the literature dealing with the treatment of at-risk patients with schizophrenia. An integrated psychosocial and pharmacological approach to managing this population of patients is recommended. Although there is at least modest evidence suggesting that antipsychotic medications protect against suicidal risk, the evidence appears to be most favourable for second-generation antipsychotics, particularly clozapine, which is the only medication approved by the US FDA for preventing suicide in patients with schizophrenia. In addition, treating depressive symptoms in patients with schizophrenia is an important component of suicide risk reduction. While selective serotonin receptor inhibitors (SSRIs) ameliorate depressive symptoms in patients with schizophrenia, they also appear to attenuate suicidal thoughts. Further research is needed to more effectively personalize the treatment of suicidal thoughts and behaviours and the prevention of suicide in patients with schizophrenia. PMID:21254789
Sendlhofer, Gerald; Brunner, Gernot; Tax, Christa; Falzberger, Gebhard; Smolle, Josef; Leitgeb, Karina; Kober, Brigitte; Kamolz, Lars Peter
For health care systems in recent years, patient safety has increasingly become a priority issue. National and international strategies have been considered to attempt to overcome the most prominent hazards while patients are receiving health care. Thereby, clinical risk management (CRM) plays a dominant role in enabling the identification, analysis, and management of potential risks. CRM implementation into routine procedures within complex hospital organizations is challenging, as in the past, organizational change strategies using a top-down approach have often failed. Therefore, one of our main objectives was to educate a certain number of risk managers in facilitating CRM using a bottom-up approach. To achieve our primary purpose, five project strands were developed, and consequently followed, introducing CRM: corporate governance, risk management (RM) training, CRM process, information, and involvement. The core part of the CRM process involved the education of risk managers within each organizational unit. To account for the size of the existing organization, we assumed that a minimum of 1 % of the workforce had to be trained in RM to disseminate the continuous improvement of quality and safety. Following a roll-out plan, CRM was introduced in each unit and potential risks were identified. Alongside the changes in the corporate governance, a hospital-wide CRM process was introduced resulting in 158 trained risk managers correlating to 2.0 % of the total workforce. Currently, risk managers are present in every unit and have identified 360 operational risks. Among those, 176 risks were scored as strategic and clustered together into top risks. Effective meeting structures and opportunities to share information and knowledge were introduced. Thus far, 31 units have been externally audited in CRM. The CRM approach is unique with respect to its dimension; members of all health care professions were trained to be able to identify potential risks. A network of risk
Mohan, Mayank; Trump, Benjamin D; Bates, Matthew E; Monica, John C; Linkov, Igor
Among other things, the wide-scale development and use of nanomaterials is expected to produce costly regulatory and civil liabilities for nanomanufacturers due to lingering uncertainties, unanticipated effects, and potential toxicity. The life-cycle environmental, health, and safety (EHS) risks of nanomaterials are currently being studied, but the corresponding legal risks have not been systematically addressed. With the aid of a systematic approach that holistically evaluates and accounts for uncertainties about the inherent properties of nanomaterials, it is possible to provide an order of magnitude estimate of liability risks from regulatory and litigious sources based on current knowledge. In this work, we present a conceptual framework for integrating estimated legal liabilities with EHS risks across nanomaterial life-cycle stages using empirical knowledge in the field, scientific and legal judgment, probabilistic risk assessment, and multicriteria decision analysis. Such estimates will provide investors and operators with a basis to compare different technologies and practices and will also inform regulatory and legislative bodies in determining standards that balance risks with technical advancement. We illustrate the framework through the hypothetical case of a manufacturer of nanoscale titanium dioxide and use the resulting expected legal costs to evaluate alternative risk-management actions.
Zink, Robyn; Leberman, Sarah
Interviews with 12 New Zealand outdoor instructors found that they viewed risk as an opportunity to gain something of value, as opposed to losing something of value. Repositioning risk in this manner could allow the debate around adventure education to move away from being dominated by risk management, allowing consideration of adventure…
Vaishya, Raju; Vijay, Vipul; Hussaini, Mustafa; Singh, Harsh
We report our experience of handling 80 major musculoskeletal injuries in a brief span of three days immediately after the major earthquake of Nepal in April 2015. Planning, proper utilization of resources, and prioritizing the patients for surgical intervention is highlighted. The value of damage control by orthopaedics in these disasters is discussed. Timely and appropriate surgical treatment by a skilled orthopaedic team not only can save these injured limbs but also the lives of the victims of a major disaster. PMID:26430580
Hämäläinen, R P; Lindstedt, M R; Sinkko, K
Radiation protection authorities have seen a potential for applying multiattribute risk analysis in nuclear emergency management and planning to deal with conflicting objectives, different parties involved, and uncertainties. This type of approach is expected to help in the following areas: to ensure that all relevant attributes are considered in decision making; to enhance communication between the concerned parties, including the public; and to provide a method for explicitly including risk analysis in the process. A multiattribute utility theory analysis was used to select a strategy for protecting the population after a simulated nuclear accident. The value-focused approach and the use of a neutral facilitator were identified as being useful.
Vykydal, David; Halfarová, Petra; Nenadál, Jaroslav; Plura, Jiří; Hekelová, Edita
Fitzenz, D. D.; Nyst, M.; Apel, E. V.; Muir-Wood, R.
The recent Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES) renewed public and academic awareness concerning the clustered nature of seismicity. Multiple event occurrence in short time and space intervals is reminiscent of aftershock sequences, but aftershock is a statistical definition, not a label one can give an earthquake in real-time. Aftershocks are defined collectively as what creates the Omori event rate decay after a large event or are defined as what is taken away as "dependent events" using a declustering method. It is noteworthy that depending on the declustering method used on the Canterbury earthquake sequence, the number of independent events varies a lot. This lack of unambiguous definition of aftershocks leads to the need to investigate the amount of clustering inherent in "declustered" risk models. This is the task we concentrate on in this contribution. We start from a background source model for the Canterbury region, in which 1) centroids of events of given magnitude are distributed using a latin-hypercube lattice, 2) following the range of preferential orientations determined from stress maps and focal mechanism, 3) with length determined using the local scaling relationship and 4) rates from a and b values derived from the declustered pre-2010 catalog. We then proceed to create tens of thousands of realizations of 6 to 20 year periods, and we define criteria to identify which successions of events in the region would be perceived as a sequence. Note that the spatial clustering expected is a lower end compared to a fully uniform distribution of events. Then we perform the same exercise with rates and b-values determined from the catalog including the CES. If the pre-2010 catalog was long (or rich) enough, then the computed "stationary" rates calculated from it would include the CES declustered events (by construction, regardless of the physical meaning of or relationship between those events). In regions of low seismicity rate (e.g., Canterbury before
Wilson, B.; Paradise, T. R.
The influx of millions of Syrian refugees into Turkey has rapidly changed the population distribution along the Dead Sea Rift and East Anatolian Fault zones. In contrast to other countries in the Middle East where refugees are accommodated in camp environments, the majority of displaced individuals in Turkey are integrated into cities, towns, and villages—placing stress on urban settings and increasing potential exposure to strong shaking. Yet, displaced populations are not traditionally captured in data sources used in earthquake risk analysis or loss estimations. Accordingly, we present a district-level analysis assessing the spatial overlap of earthquake hazards and refugee locations in southeastern Turkey to determine how migration patterns are altering seismic risk in the region. Using migration estimates from the U.S. Humanitarian Information Unit, we create three district-level population scenarios that combine official population statistics, refugee camp populations, and low, median, and high bounds for integrated refugee populations. We perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis alongside these population scenarios to map spatial variations in seismic risk between 2011 and late 2015. Our results show a significant relative southward increase of seismic risk for this period due to refugee migration. Additionally, we calculate earthquake fatalities for simulated earthquakes using a semi-empirical loss estimation technique to determine degree of under-estimation resulting from forgoing migration data in loss modeling. We find that including refugee populations increased casualties by 11-12% using median population estimates, and upwards of 20% using high population estimates. These results communicate the ongoing importance of placing environmental hazards in their appropriate regional and temporal context which unites physical, political, cultural, and socio-economic landscapes. Keywords: Earthquakes, Hazards, Loss-Estimation, Syrian Crisis, Migration
Mexico is a country which has to deal with several natural disaster risks: earthquakes, droughts, volcanic eruptions, floods, slides, wild fires, extreme temperatures, etc. In order to reduce the country's vulnerability to the impact of these natural disasters and to support rapid recovery when they occur, the government established in 1996 Mexico's Fund for Natural Disasters (FONDEN). Since its creation, its resources have been insufficient to meet all government obligations. The aim of this project is the development of a dynamic strategy to optimise the management of a fund for natural disasters starting from the example of FONDEN. The problem of budgetary planning is being considered for the modelling. We control the level of the fund's cash (R_t)0<= t
NASA Headquarters Environmental Management Division supports NASA's mission to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research by integrating environmental considerations into programs and projects early-on, thereby proactively reducing NASA's exposure to institutional, programmatic and operational risk. As part of this effort, NASA established the Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC) as a resource for detecting, analyzing, and communicating environmental regulatory risks to the NASA stakeholder community. The RRAC PC focuses on detecting emerging environmental regulations and other operational change drivers that may pose risks to NASA programs and facilities, and effectively communicating the potential risks. For example, regulatory change may restrict how and where certain activities or operations may be conducted. Regulatory change can also directly affect the ability to use certain materials by mandating a production phase-out or restricting usage applications of certain materials. Regulatory change can result in significant adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities due to NASA's stringent performance requirements for materials and components related to human-rated space vehicles. Even if a regulation does not directly affect NASA operations, U.S. and international regulations can pose program risks indirectly through requirements levied on manufacturers and vendors of components and materials. For example, manufacturers can change their formulations to comply with new regulatory requirements. Such changes can require time-consuming and costly requalification certification for use in human spaceflight programs. The RRAC PC has implemented a system for proactively managing regulatory change to minimize potential adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities. This presentation highlights the process utilized by the RRACPC to communicate regulatory change and the associated
The management of a dental practice is most often focused on what clinicians do (production of items), and not so much on what is achieved in terms of oral health. The main reason for this is probably that it is easier to measure production and more difficult to measure health outcome. This paper presents a model based on individual risk assessment that aims to achieve a financially sound economy and good oral health. The close-to-the-clinic management tool, the HIDEP Model (Health Improvement in a DEntal Practice) was pioneered initially in Sweden at the end of 1980s. The experience over a 15-year period with different elements of the model is presented, including: the basis of examination and risk assessment; motivation; task delegation and leadership issues; health-finance evaluations; and quality development within a dental clinic. DentiGroupXL, a software program designed to support the work based on the model, is also described.
Principal activities of maintenance carried out in hospital, staff required, various type of organization (inside team or global service), management aspects are described. Subjects responsible of maintenance are characterized and the relationships between Service of Maintenance and Service of Prevention and Protection in hospital are specified. Responsibility aspects concerning safety of maintenance workers and main risks which are exposed are defined. The importance of disponibility of a good maintenance handbook and of projects and programs of practice for new hospitals are emphasized.
help manage risk in only AFC’s credit and retail departments. However, after the crisis that occurred in financial markets at the turn of the...my research of the company. After conducting independent research, I was able to determine that Open Pages and Methodware are almost identical in...the software they offer, much like a pair of basketball shoes provided by Nike vice Adidas . What allows them to operate successfully as independent
Sun Protection differentiates itself from other texts by adopting a risk-management approach to determine whether, how, and in what circumstances, harm might be caused, and to explore the feasibility of various strategies in controlling exposure to solar UV radiation. This multi-disciplinary book covers topics from climatology through human exposure to sunlight, as well as biological and clinical effects of UV radiation to physical and chemical strategies for photoprotection.
Vitriol, Verónica; Minoletti, Alberto; Alvarado, Rubén; Sierralta, Paula; Cancino, Alfredo
Thirty to 50% of people exposed to a natural disaster suffer psychological problems in the ensuing months. To characterize the activities in mental health developed by Primary Health Care centers after the earthquake that affected Chile on february 27th, 2010. A cross-sectional study analyzing 16 urban centers of Maule Region, was carried out. A questionnaire was developed to know the preparatory and supportive activities directed to the community and the training and self-care activities directed to Health Care personnel that were made during the 12 months following the catastrophe. In addition, a questionnaire evaluating structural aspects was designed. Only 1/3 of the centers made some preparatory activity and none of them made a diagnosis of population vulnerability. The average of protective Mental Health interventions coverage reached 35% of the population estimated to be most affected. The activities lasted 31 to 62% of the optimal duration standards set by experts (according to the type of action). Important differences between centers in economic and geographical accessibility, construction and professional resources were found. This study shows the difficulties faced by urban centers of Maule Region to deal with mental health problems caused by the earthquake, which were attributable to the absence of local planning and drills, and to the lack of intra and inter sectorial coordination.
Xu, Jiuping; Wang, Yan; Tang, Wanjie
This study examined the severity of post-traumatic stress and depressive disorders in Longmenshan adolescents after the 2013 Lushan earthquake, as well as relationships among earthquake-related exposure, post-earthquake negative factors, previous exposure to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, and level of earthquake impact (city). A cross-sectional survey was conducted among adolescents in Lushan (n = 1416), Baoxing (n = 1102) and Tianquan (n = 1265) at 3 years after the Lushan earthquake. Respondents were evaluated using the Earthquake Experience Scale, the Adolescent Self-rating Life Events Checklist (ASLEC), the Children's Revised Impact of Event Scale (CRIES-13), and the Depression Self-Rating Scale (KADS-6). High levels of post-traumatic stress and depression symptoms were found among adolescents in the most heavily affected cities, and these symptoms were more severe in respondents exposed to the 2008 earthquake. PTSD correlated most strongly with earthquake exposure, whereas depression correlated most strongly with psychosocial stressors following the event.
Engineering Test Satellite - 8 (ETS-8) is the Japanese largest geo-synchronous satellite of 3 tons in mass, of which mission is mobile communications and navigation experiment. It is now in the flight model manufacturing phase. This paper introduces the risk management taken in this project as a reference. The mission success criteria of ETS-8 are described at first. All the risk management activities are planned taking these criteria into consideration. ETS-8 consists of many new technologies such as the large deployable antenna (19m x 17m), 64-bit MPU, 100 V solar paddle and so on. We have to pay attention to control these risk through each phase of development. In system design of ETS - 8, almost components have redundancy and there is some back-up function to avoid fatal failure. What kind of back-up function should be taken is one of the hot issues in this project. The consideration process is described as an actual case. In addition to conventional risk management procedure, FMEA and identification of the critical items so on, we conducted the validation experiment in space by use of a scale model that was launched on Ariane 5. The decision to conduct this kind of experiment is taken after evaluation between risk and cost, because it takes a lot of resources of project. The effect of this experiment is also presented. Failure detection, isolation and reconfiguration in the flight software are more important as the satellite system becomes large and complicated. We did the independent verification and validation to the software. Some remarks are noted with respect to its effectiveness.
Asymptomatic patients with Brugada syndrome (BrS) have a small, but not trivial, risk of cardiac events. Their risk stratification and its impact on their management are controversial. The review focuses on the clinical aspects of BrS with special emphasis on the asymptomatic patient. Emerging data suggest that drug and fever-induced type I Brugada patterns are more common than previously appreciated. Although preliminary, these data may imply that asymptomatic patients with induced Brugada pattern are at an even lower risk than currently estimated.The latest data regarding induced ventricular arrhythmias during electrophysiological studies support its use as an indication for an implantable cardioverter defibrillator; however, this issue remains highly controversial.Several new risk markers, such as presence of the Brugada pattern in infero-lateral leads or the concomitant finding of an early repolarization pattern, have recently been proposed. Most asymptomatic BrS patients are at low risk of cardiac events. The presence of new risk markers in this population may prompt consideration of primary prevention measures; however, data supporting this approach are still limited.
Resnik, David B.; Elliot, Kevin C.
It is widely recognized that endocrine disrupting compounds, such as Bisphenol A, pose challenges for traditional paradigms in toxicology, insofar as these substances appear to have a wider range of low-dose effects than previously recognized. These compounds also pose challenges for ethics and policymaking. When a chemical does not have significant low-dose effects, regulators can allow it to be introduced into commerce or the environment, provided that procedures and rules are in place to keep exposures below an acceptable level. This option allows society to maximize the benefits from the use of the chemical while minimizing risks to human health or the environment, and it represents a compromise between competing values. When it is not possible to establish acceptable exposure levels for chemicals that pose significant health or environmental risks, the most reasonable options for risk management may be to enact either partial or complete bans on their use. These options create greater moral conflict than other risk management strategies, leaving policymakers difficult choices between competing values. PMID:24471646
Resnik, David B; Elliott, Kevin C
It is widely recognized that endocrine disrupting compounds, such as Bisphenol A, pose challenges for traditional paradigms in toxicology, insofar as these substances appear to have a wider range of low-dose effects than previously recognized. These compounds also pose challenges for ethics and policymaking. When a chemical does not have significant low-dose effects, regulators can allow it to be introduced into commerce or the environment, provided that procedures and rules are in place to keep exposures below an acceptable level. This option allows society to maximize the benefits from the use of the chemical while minimizing risks to human health or the environment, and it represents a compromise between competing values. When it is not possible to establish acceptable exposure levels for chemicals that pose significant health or environmental risks, the most reasonable options for risk management may be to enact either partial or complete bans on their use. These options create greater moral conflict than other risk management strategies, leaving policymakers difficult choices between competing values. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Although it is often vigorously contested and has several different formulations, the precautionary principle has in recent decades guided environmental policy making in the face of scientific uncertainty. Originating from a criticism of traditional risk assessment, the key element of the precautionary principle is the justification for acting in the face of uncertain knowledge about risks. In the light of its growing invocation in various areas that are related to public health and recently in relation to drug safety issues, this article presents an introductory review of the main elements of the precautionary principle and some arguments conveyed by its advocates and opponents. A comparison of the characteristics of pharmaceutical risk management and environmental policy making (i.e. the setting within which the precautionary principle evolved), indicates that several important differences exist. If believed to be of relevance, in order to avoid arbitrary and unpredictable decision making, both the interpretation and possible application of the precautionary principle need to be adapted to the conditions of pharmaceutical risk management.
Park, Hyun Jun; Cho, Duk Young; Park, Yong Sug; Kim, Sun Wook; Park, Jae-Hong
Purpose To analyze the types of medical malpractice, medical errors, and medical disputes in a university hospital for the proposal of countermeasures that maximize the efficiency of hospital management, medical departments, and healthcare providers. Materials and Methods This study retrospectively reviewed and analyzed 55 closed civil lawsuits among 64 medical lawsuit cases carried out in Pusan National University Hospital from January 2000 to April 2013 using medical records, petitions, briefs, and data from the Medical Dispute Mediation Committee. Results Of 55 civil lawsuits, men were the main plaintiffs in 31 cases (56.4%). The average period from medical malpractice to malpractice proceeding was 16.5 months (range, 1 month to 6.4 years), and the average period from malpractice proceeding to the disposition of a lawsuit was 21.7 months (range, 1 month to 4 years and 11 months). Conclusions Hospitals can effectively manage their legal risks by implementing a systematic medical system, eliminating risk factors in administrative service, educating all hospital employees on preventative strategies, and improving customer service. Furthermore, efforts should be made to establish standard coping strategies to manage medical disputes and malpractice lawsuits, operate alternative dispute resolution methods including the Medical Dispute Mediation Committee, create a compliance support center, deploy a specialized workforce including improved legal services for employees, and specialize the management-level tasks of the hospital. PMID:27169130
Cui, P.; Dang, C.; Zhuang, J.; You, Y.; Chen, X.; Scott, K.M.
Landslides and rock avalanches triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake produced 257 landslide dams, mainly situated along the eastern boundary of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau where rivers descend approximately 3,000 m into the Sichuan Basin. The largest of these dams blocked the Tongkou River (a tributary of the Fujiang River) at Tangjiashan. The blockage, consisting of 2. 04 ?? 10 7 m 3 of landslide debris, impounded a lake with a projected maximum volume of 3. 15 ?? 10 8 m 3, potentially inundating 8. 92 km 2 of terrain. Its creation during the rainy season and the possibility of an uncontrolled release posed a serious, impending threat to at least 1. 3 million people downstream that could add substantially to the total of 69,200 individuals directly killed by the earthquake. Risk assessment of the blockage indicated that it was unlikely to collapse suddenly, and that eventual overtopping could be mitigated by notching the structure in order to create an engineered breach and achieve safe drainage of the lake. In addition to the installation of monitoring and warning instrumentation, for emergency planning we estimated several outburst scenarios equivalent to 20, 25, 33, and 50% of the dam failing suddenly, creating, respectively, 3. 35, 3. 84, 4. 22, and 4. 65 km 2 of flooded area, and overbank water depths of 4. 6, 5. 1, 5. 7, and 6. 2 m, respectively, in Mianyang, the second largest city in Sichuan Province, 48 km downstream from the blockage. Based on these scenarios, recommendations and plans for excavating a sluiceway, draining the lake, and downstream evacuation were proposed and later were implemented successfully, with the blockage breached by overtopping on June 10, less than a month after dam emplacement. The peak discharge of the release only slightly exceeded the flood of record at Mianyang City. No lives were lost, and significant property damage was avoided. Post-breaching evaluation reveals how future similar mitigation can be improved. Although
Saraò, Angela; Barnaba, Carla; Peruzza, Laura
On 6 May 1976 an Ms=6.5 earthquake struck the Friuli area (NE Italy), causing about 1,000 casualties, and widespread destruction. Such event is the largest so far recorded in Northern Italy. After 40 years, the memory of a devastating earthquake remains in the urbanization, and in the people that lived that dreadful experience. However, the memories tend to vanish with the quake survivors demise and the celebration of the anniversary become a good opportunity to refresh the earthquake history, and the awareness of living in a seismic prone area. As seismologists, we believe that the seismic risk reduction starts from the education of the next generation. For this reason, we decided to celebrate the 40 anniversary planning a special educational campaign, mainly devoted to the schools and the young people, but it will give us the opportunity to check and, if necessary to raise, the level of seismic awareness of the local communities. The activities started on May 2015, with labs and lessons held in some schools, and the creation of a blog (https://versoi40anni.wordpress.com) to collect news, photos, video and all the materials related to the campaign. From February to May 2016, one day per week, we will open our seismological lab to the school visits, so that students can meet the seismologists, and we will cooperate with local science museums to enlarge the training offers on the earthquake topics. By continuing the efforts of our previous educational projects, the students of a school located in Gemona del Friuli, one of the small town destroyed by the 1976 earthquake, will be deeply involved in experimental activities, like seismic noise measurements for microzonation studies, so to be an active part of the seismic mitigation process. This and some other activities developed for the celebration of the 40 anniversary of the Friuli earthquake will be illustrated in this presentation.
O'Donnell, Kevin; Greene, Anne; Zwitkovits, Michael; Calnan, Nuala
This paper presents a practical way in which current approaches to quality risk management (QRM) may be improved, such that they better support qualification, validation programs, and change control proposals at manufacturing sites. The paper is focused on the treatment of good manufacturing practice (GMP) controls during QRM exercises. It specifically addresses why it is important to evaluate and classify such controls in terms of how they affect the severity, probability of occurrence, and detection ratings that may be assigned to potential failure modes or negative events. It also presents a QRM process that is designed to directly link the outputs of risk assessments and risk control activities with qualification and validation protocols in the GMP environment. This paper concerns the need for improvement in the use of risk-based principles and tools when working to ensure that the manufacturing processes used to produce medicines, and their related equipment, are appropriate. Manufacturing processes need to be validated (or proven) to demonstrate that they can produce a medicine of the required quality. The items of equipment used in such processes need to be qualified, in order to prove that they are fit for their intended use. Quality risk management (QRM) tools can be used to support such qualification and validation activities, but their use should be science-based and subject to as little subjectivity and uncertainty as possible. When changes are proposed to manufacturing processes, equipment, or related activities, they also need careful evaluation to ensure that any risks present are managed effectively. This paper presents a practical approach to how QRM may be improved so that it better supports qualification, validation programs, and change control proposals in a more scientific way. This improved approach is based on the treatment of what are called good manufacturing process (GMP) controls during those QRM exercises. A GMP control can be considered
The National Risk Management Research Laboratory (NRMRL) developed a Risk Management Evaluation (RME) to provide information needed to help plan future research in the Laboratory dealing with the environmental impact of concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs). Agriculture...
Wood, Matthew D; Bostrom, Ann; Bridges, Todd; Linkov, Igor
Risk managers are increasingly interested in incorporating stakeholder beliefs and other human factors into the planning process. Effective risk assessment and management requires understanding perceptions and beliefs of involved stakeholders, and how these beliefs give rise to actions that influence risk management decisions. Formal analyses of risk manager and stakeholder cognitions represent an important first step. Techniques for diagramming stakeholder mental models provide one tool for risk managers to better understand stakeholder beliefs and perceptions concerning risk, and to leverage this new understanding in developing risk management strategies. This article reviews three methodologies for assessing and diagramming stakeholder mental models--decision-analysis-based mental modeling, concept mapping, and semantic web analysis--and assesses them with regard to their ability to address risk manager needs. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.
Marshall, J.; Barnes, J.; Gould, N.; Jaiswal, K.; Lizundia, B.; Swanson, David A.; Turner, F.
This paper explores the post-earthquake building assessment program that was utilized in Christchurch, New Zealand following the Canterbury Sequence of earthquakes beginning with the Magnitude (Mw.) 7.1 Darfield event in September 2010. The aftershocks or triggered events, two of which exceeded Mw 6.0, continued with events in February and June 2011 causing the greatest amount of damage. More than 70,000 building safety assessments were completed following the February event. The timeline and assessment procedures will be discussed including the use of rapid response teams, selection of indicator buildings to monitor damage following aftershocks, risk assessments for demolition of red-tagged buildings, the use of task forces to address management of the heavily damaged downtown area and the process of demolition. Through the post-event safety assessment program that occurred throughout the Canterbury Sequence of earthquakes, many important lessons can be learned that will benefit future response to natural hazards that have potential to damage structures.
Codd, Geoffrey A.; Morrison, Louise F.; Metcalf, James S
This paper reviews the occurrence and properties of cyanobacterial toxins, with reference to the recognition and management of the human health risks which they may present. Mass populations of toxin-producing cyanobacteria in natural and controlled waterbodies include blooms and scums of planktonic species, and mats and biofilms of benthic species. Toxic cyanobacterial populations have been reported in freshwaters in over 45 countries, and in numerous brackish, coastal, and marine environments. The principal toxigenic genera are listed. Known sources of the families of cyanobacterial toxins (hepato-, neuro-, and cytotoxins, irritants, and gastrointestinal toxins) are briefly discussed. Key procedures in the riskmore » management of cyanobacterial toxins and cells are reviewed, including derivations (where sufficient data are available) of tolerable daily intakes (TDIs) and guideline values (GVs) with reference to the toxins in drinking water, and guideline levels for toxigenic cyanobacteria in bathing waters. Uncertainties and some gaps in knowledge are also discussed, including the importance of exposure media (animal and plant foods), in addition to potable and recreational waters. Finally, we present an outline of steps to develop and implement risk management strategies for cyanobacterial cells and toxins in waterbodies, with recent applications and the integration of Hazard Assessment Critical Control Point (HACCP) principles.« less
This paper gives a background to risk management of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) transport activities, with special regard to the activities taking place in Hong Kong. In particular, it looks at the recent activities undertaken by the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR); the recent risk assessment of LPG transport in the Territory, the measures developed to minimise the risks (including risk management improvements) and the risk management activities undertaken by the Government and the operators.
Cordero-Reyes, A M; Palacios, I; Ramia, D; West, R; Valencia, M; Ramia, N; Egas, D; Rodas, P; Bahamonde, M; Grunauer, M
This case study describes the implementation of an academic institution's disaster management plan. Case study. USFQ's Medical School developed a six-phase disaster relief plan consisting of: induction, establishing a base camp, crisis management and mental health aid, creation of multidisciplinary teams and multi-agency teams, and reconstruction. Each phase uses a community-oriented approach to foster survivor autonomy and recovery. Our methodology facilitated the successful implementation of multidisciplinary interventions to manage the earthquake's aftermath on the personal, community and regional levels, treated and prevented psychological and physical morbidity among survivors and promoted healthy living conditions and independence. A multidisciplinary response team that addresses medical needs, mental health, education, food, nutrition and sanitation is highly effective in contributing to timely, effective relief efforts. The short- and long-term solutions we describe could be applicable to other academic centres' interventions in future disaster scenarios around the world. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
GAO United States General Accounting Office Performance and Accountability SeriesJanuary 2001 Major Management Challenges and Program Risks ...34) Title and Subtitle Major Management Challenges and Program Risks Department of Education Contract or Grant Number Program Element Number Authors...Accountability Series: Major Management Challenges and Program Risks . In that series, GAO advised the Congress that it planned to reassess the
... approach to managing these risks. [65 FR 70316, Nov. 22, 2000] ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Risk management. 1815.203... Proposals and Information 1815.203-72 Risk management. In all RFPs and RFOs for supplies or services for...
... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Management of interest rate risk. 615.5135... agricultural credit bank shall develop and implement an interest rate risk management program as set forth in subpart G of this part. The board of directors shall adopt an interest rate risk management section of an...
... 7 Agriculture 7 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Risk management purchase requirements. 760.104 Section... Agricultural Disaster Assistance Programs § 760.104 Risk management purchase requirements. (a) To be eligible... available from the USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA)) obtained catastrophic coverage or better under a...
... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Interest rate risk management. 652.30 Section... CORPORATION FUNDING AND FISCAL AFFAIRS § 652.30 Interest rate risk management. (a) The board of directors of... management and must be knowledgeable of the nature and level of interest rate risk taken by Farmer Mac. (b...
.... Risk Management Requirements Core Principle D, as amended by the Dodd-Frank Act,\\27\\ requires each DCO... Part II Commodity Futures Trading Commission 17 CFR Part 39 Risk Management Requirements for... RIN 3038-AC98 Risk Management Requirements for Derivatives Clearing Organizations AGENCY: Commodity...
... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Management of risk. 39.102... CONTRACTING ACQUISITION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY General 39.102 Management of risk. (a) Prior to entering... monitored, funding availability, and program management risk. (c) Appropriate techniques should be applied...
... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Management of interest rate risk. 615.5135... agricultural credit bank shall develop and implement an interest rate risk management program as set forth in subpart G of this part. The board of directors shall adopt an interest rate risk management section of an...
... 7 Agriculture 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk management purchase requirements. 760.104 Section... Agricultural Disaster Assistance Programs § 760.104 Risk management purchase requirements. (a) To be eligible... available from the USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA)) obtained catastrophic coverage or better under a...
This Risk Management Plan defines the approach to be taken to manage programmatic risks in the TWRS Tank Waste Retrieval program. It provides specific instructions applicable to TWR, and is used to supplement the guidance given by the TWRS Risk Management procedure.
Silbergeld, Ellen K
Managing hazards in place (MHP) is a policy instrument in environmental health that allows less than complete removal, abatement, or remediation of environmental hazards. The practice of minimizing exposure to hazards rather than removing them is widely recognized as part of the toolbox of environmental protection for human and ecosystem health. The concept of managing hazards in place is embedded in several environmental statutes and regulations in the US notably the waste management regulations, as well as in the Safe Drinking Water Act and the Clean Water Act. While this commentary focuses largely on applications of MHP in the US, this policy is also utilized by agencies in many other countries for managing hazardous waste sites, lead in housing and drinking water systems, and environmental contamination of rivers and estuaries. The rationale for this concept is not difficult to understand: MHP policies can reduce the costs of meeting environmental goals; it can provide opportunities for access to resources that have been contaminated by past actions such as waste disposal, and it can enhance land and property values as well as tax revenues all of which are important to home owners and communities. The concerns related to this concept are also not difficult to understand: an incompletely abated or contained hazard may present future exposure risks to humans and environmental biota. Further, the compromise implicit in MHP is the assurance of indefinite oversight and monitoring to detect any releases. To that extent, MHP involves both sociology as well as toxicology and the exposure sciences. Because of the prevalence of managing hazards in place, this commentary suggests that evaluation of its performance is needed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Roskilde University hosted a November 2015 workshop on “Environmental Risk – Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World”. Thirty attendees from 9 countries developed consensus recommendations regarding: implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process involving both universal and site-, region-, or problem-specific protection goals; addressing societal issues; risk management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. We encourage both cross- and inter-disciplinary approaches to address 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and non-chemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk management process; 5) consider socio-economics and increase transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference con
Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.
The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks. The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of
of assets within the portfolio for use in Risk and Reliability analysis ... US Army Corps of Engineers assesses its Civil Works infrastructure and applies risk and reliability in the management of that infrastructure. The ... the Corps must complete assessments across its portfolio of major assets before risk management can be used in decision making. Effective risk
Clark, Scott B.; DeCato, Kristen Devan; George, Dave; Henderson, Dana; Henry, Aston A., Jr.; Hoch, Christopher
Public schools have a mandate to educate children in a way that is safe, effective, and cost efficient. The risks involved in achieving that mandate have become increasingly complex, and the need to manage those risks has never been greater. The emergence of widespread, interconnected risks, such as cyber risks and data management, infrastructure…
Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim
Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.
Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim
Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a “gold standard” for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable. PMID:26322307
Farrell, Hazel; Murray, Shauna A.; Zammit, Anthony; Edwards, Alan W.
Between 2014 and 2016, five cases of ciguatera fish poisoning (CFP), involving twenty four individuals, were linked to Spanish Mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson) caught in the coastal waters of the state of New South Wales (NSW) on the east coast of Australia. Previously, documented cases of CFP in NSW were few, and primarily linked to fish imported from other regions. Since 2015, thirteen individuals were affected across four additional CFP cases in NSW, linked to fish imported from tropical locations. The apparent increase in CFP in NSW from locally sourced catch, combined with the risk of CFP from imported fish, has highlighted several considerations that should be incorporated into risk management strategies to minimize CFP exposure for seafood consumers. PMID:29135913
Barco, Stefano; Konstantinides, Stavros V
The presence and severity of right ventricular (RV) dysfunction is a key determinant of prognosis in the acute phase of pulmonary embolism (PE). Risk-adapted treatment strategies continue to evolve, tailoring initial management to the clinical presentation and the functional status of the RV. Beyond pharmacological and, if necessary, mechanical circulatory support, systemic thrombolysis remains the mainstay of treatment for hemodynamically unstable patients; in contrast, it is not routinely recommended for intermediate-risk PE. Catheter-directed pharmacomechanical reperfusion treatment represents a promising option for minimizing bleeding risk; for reduced-dose intravenous thrombolysis, the data are still preliminary. Non-vitamin K-dependent oral anticoagulants, directly inhibiting factor Xa (rivaroxaban, apixaban, edoxaban) or thrombin (dabigatran), have simplified initial and long-term anticoagulation for PE while reducing major bleeding risk. Use of vena cava filters should be restricted to selected patients with absolute contraindications to anticoagulation, or PE recurrence despite adequately dosed anticoagulants. © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Fedor, O. H.; Parsons, W. N.; Coutinho, J. De C.
In connection with the construction of four major liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities in New York City, the New York City Fire Commissioner has asked NASA for assistance. It was decided that the Kennedy Space Center should develop a risk management system (RMS) for the use of the New York Fire Department (NYFD). The RMS provides for a published set of safety regulations by the NYFD. A description of the RMS is presented as an example of an application of aerospace technology to a civilian sector, namely LNG facilities.
Urban, Mary Elizabeth
Risk is a factor, element, constraint, or course of action that introduces an uncertainty of outcome that could impact project objectives. Risk is an inherent part of all activities, whether the activity is simple and small, or large and complex. Risk management is a process that identifies, evaluates, handles, and monitors risks that have the potential to affect project success. The risk management process spans the entire project, from its initiation to its successful completion and closeout, including both technical and programmatic (non-technical) risks. This Risk Management Plan (RMP) defines the process to be used for identifying, evaluating, handling, andmore » monitoring risks as part of the overall management of the Enhanced Capabilities for Subcritical Experiments (ECSE) ‘Project’. Given the changing nature of the project environment, risk management is essentially an ongoing and iterative process, which applies the best efforts of a knowledgeable project staff to a suite of focused and prioritized concerns. The risk management process itself must be continually applied throughout the project life cycle. This document was prepared in accordance with DOE O 413.3B, Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets, its associated guide for risk management DOE G 413.3-7, Risk Management Guide, and LANL ADPM AP-350-204, Risk and Opportunity Management.« less
Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c
Cui, Ke; Han, Ziqiang; Wang, Dongming
Disaster risk reduction (DRR) activities have given growing attention to building community resilience, but the effects of such efforts on community resilience are still under-investigated, especially in China where the concept of community resilience has only just emerged. Using the Communities Advancing Resilience Toolkit Assessment Survey, data on self-perceived community resilience were collected in 2017 from a post-disaster Chinese rural community in Yingxiu Town, which was the epicenter of the Wenchuan earthquake (Magnitude = 8.0) in the year 2008. Linear regression analyses were conducted to explore the correlations between residents' DRR behaviors and perceived community resilience with the control of their socio-demographic characteristics including age, ethnicity, gender, education, income level, employment status and marital status. Results indicate that residents who volunteered for DRR activities received geological disaster education, participated in evacuation drills, and reported higher income levels had a perception of higher community resilience. Practice research is suggested to help clarify the cause and effect of DRR work on the enhancement of community resilience to disasters in China and abroad. Attention is also called to the development of a Chinese indigenous community resilience concept and assessment instrument.
Cui, Ke; Wang, Dongming
Disaster risk reduction (DRR) activities have given growing attention to building community resilience, but the effects of such efforts on community resilience are still under-investigated, especially in China where the concept of community resilience has only just emerged. Using the Communities Advancing Resilience Toolkit Assessment Survey, data on self-perceived community resilience were collected in 2017 from a post-disaster Chinese rural community in Yingxiu Town, which was the epicenter of the Wenchuan earthquake (Magnitude = 8.0) in the year 2008. Linear regression analyses were conducted to explore the correlations between residents’ DRR behaviors and perceived community resilience with the control of their socio-demographic characteristics including age, ethnicity, gender, education, income level, employment status and marital status. Results indicate that residents who volunteered for DRR activities, received geological disaster education, participated in evacuation drills, and reported higher income levels had a perception of higher community resilience. Practice research is suggested to help clarify the cause and effect of DRR work on the enhancement of community resilience to disasters in China and abroad. Attention is also called to the development of a Chinese indigenous community resilience concept and assessment instrument. PMID:29495473
Zhu, Wenmin; Jia, Yuanhua
Based on the risk management theory and the PDCA cycle model, requirements of the railway passenger transport safety production is analyzed, and the establishment of the security risk assessment team is proposed to manage risk by FTA with Delphi from both qualitative and quantitative aspects. The safety production committee is also established to accomplish performance appraisal, which is for further ensuring the correctness of risk management results, optimizing the safety management business processes and improving risk management capabilities. The basic framework and risk information database of risk management information system of railway passenger transport safety are designed by Ajax, Web Services and SQL technologies. The system realizes functions about risk management, performance appraisal and data management, and provides an efficient and convenient information management platform for railway passenger safety manager.
Daniell, James; Schaefer, Andreas; Wenzel, Friedemann
The average loss per building in developed countries like Australia or Switzerland due to earthquakes will be far in excess of 100€ over a political lifetime of 4 years (via a stochastic risk assessment). So a good question is, what can be done for 100€ and a bit of hard work, to strengthen and retrofit a URM (unreinforced masonry house). Of course much of the loss occurs in a few large events, but significant damage also occurs from more frequent smaller events. Using the CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database (Daniell et al., 2011), 57% of deaths from earthquakes have occurred in masonry buildings since 1900 globally. Thus, with a view towards life safety and the maximum return on investment, different options are tested and discussed for retrofitting the average brick house for earthquake resistance. Bolting and bracketing furniture, electrical equipment and valuables to walls, the removal or tying in of certain non-structural elements, as well as adjustments such as seismic wallpaper and reinforcement are tested from empirical and analytical experience from around the world. Of course, earthquakes are not the only main concern for developed nation populations, so a view as to the best use of the 100€ is looked at in combination with other disaster types. Insurance takeout and its implications are also discussed. The process is repeated for the D-A-CH (Germany, Austria and Switzerland) region in order to see the regional economic implications for widespread awareness of earthquake risks and losses. The risk reduction is quantified and is seen to be significant for nearly all of the D-A-CH region. This analysis has implications for developed and developing nations alike.
Fine, R P
The increased financial risk that not-for-profit integrated delivery systems have assumed to function under managed care has required them to become increasingly reliant on income and gains from their investment portfolios. This reliance underscores the need for these organizations to take steps to effectively manage their investment risk. Not-for-profit IDSs should establish a systematic approach to investment risk management that is based on maintaining a sound fiduciary infrastructure and having a clear understanding of risk exposures, the most important of which are policy and market risk. Applying reasonable and common-sense risk management strategies to investment policy will enhance an IDS's overall financial and competitive strength.
Moorman, Jessica D; Harrison, Kristen
Sex worker experience of risk (e.g., physical violence or rape) is shaped by race, gender, and context. For web-based sex workers, experience of risk is comparatively minimal; what is unclear is how web-based sex workers manage risk and if online advertising plays a role in risk management. Building on intersectionality theory and research exploring risk management in sex work, we content-analyzed 600 escort advertisements from Backpage.com ( http://www.backpage.com ) to explore risk management in web-based sex work. To guide our research we asked: Do advertisements contain risk management messages? Does the use of risk management messaging differ by sex worker race or gender? Which groups have the highest overall use of risk management messages? Through a multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA) we found that advertisements contained risk management messages and that uses of these phrases varied by race and gender. Blacks, women, and transgender women drove the use of risk management messages. Black and White transgender women had the highest overall use of these phrases. We conclude that risk management is an intersectional practice and that the use of risk management messages is a venue-specific manifestation of broader risk management priorities found in all venues where sex is sold.
Dulac, Guillaume; Forni, Marc
Starting from the general concept of risk, we set up an economic analysis framework for Disaster Risk Management (DRM) investment. It builds on uncertainty management techniques - notably Monte Carlo simulations - and includes both a risk and performance metrics adapted to recurring issues in disaster risk management as entertained by governments and international organisations. This type of framework proves to be enlightening in several regards, and is thought to ease the promotion of DRM projects as "investments" rather than "costs to be born" and allow for meaningful comparison between DRM and other sectors. We then look at the specificities of disaster risk investments of medium to large scales through this framework, where some "invariants" can be identified, notably: (i) it makes more sense to perform analysis over long-term horizons -space and time scales are somewhat linked; (ii) profiling of the fluctuations of the gains and losses of DRM investments over long periods requires the ability to handle possibly highly volatile variables; (iii) complexity increases with the scale which results in a higher sensitivity of the analytic framework on the results; (iv) as the perimeter of analysis (time, theme and space-wise) is widened, intrinsic parameters of the project tend to weight lighter. This puts DRM in a very different perspective from traditional modelling, which usually builds on more intrinsic features of the disaster as it relates to the scientific knowledge about hazard(s). As models hardly accommodate for such complexity or "data entropy" (they require highly structured inputs), there is a need for a complementary approach to understand risk at global scale. The proposed framework suggests opting for flexible ad hoc modelling of specific issues consistent with one's objective, risk and performance metrics. Such tailored solutions are strongly context-dependant (time and budget, sensitivity of the studied variable in the economic framework) and can
Hrudey, Steve E; Hrudey, Elizabeth J; Pollard, Simon J T
Millions of people die every year around the world from diarrheal diseases much of which is caused by contaminated drinking water. By contrast, drinking water safety is largely taken for granted by many citizens of affluent nations. The ability to drink water that is delivered into households without fear of becoming ill may be one of the key defining characteristics of developed nations in relation to the majority of the world. Yet there is well-documented evidence that disease outbreaks remain a risk that could be better managed and prevented even in affluent nations. A detailed retrospective analysis of more than 70 case studies of disease outbreaks in 15 affluent nations over the past 30 years provides the basis for much of our discussion [Hrudey, S.E. and Hrudey, E.J. Safe Drinking Water--Lessons from Recent Outbreaks in Affluent Nations. London, UK: IWA Publishing; 2004.]. The insights provided can assist in developing a better understanding within the water industry of the causes of drinking water disease outbreaks, so that more effective preventive measures can be adopted by water systems that are vulnerable. This preventive feature lies at the core of risk management for the provision of safe drinking water.
Meshkat, Leila; Bryant, Larry W.
Command File Error (CFE), as defined by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's (JPL) Mission Operations Assurance (MOA) is, regardless of the consequence on the spacecraft, either: an error in a command file sent to the spacecraft, an error in the process for developing and delivering a command file to the spacecraft, or the omission of a command file that should have been sent to the spacecraft. The risk consequence of a CFE can be mission ending and thus a concern to space exploration projects during their mission operations. A CFE during space mission operations is often the symptom of some kind of imbalance or inadequacy within the system that comprises the hardware & software used for command generation and the human experts involved in this endeavour. As we move into an era of enhanced collaboration with other NASA centers and commercial partners, these systems become more and more complex and hence it is all the more important to formally model and analyze CFEs in order to manage the risk of CFEs. Here we will provide a summary of the ongoing efforts at JPL in this area and also explain some more recent developments in the area of developing quantitative models for the purpose of managing CFE's.
Charles River Laboratories Japan produces laboratory animals, mainly mice and rats. In its history, we have experienced many crises such as mass food poisoning of staff and contamination of animals. However, we overcame these crises, accomplishing our corporate missions to secure steady supply of healthy animals. Under such circumstances, in 2008, we faced an unprecedented crisis involving a novel influenza possibly becoming pandemic. Therefore, we prepared a Crisis Management Plan (CMP) and Business Continuity Plan (BCP) to avoid the worst case scenario. Fortunately, the novel influenza did not develop into a pandemic and no major problems occurred in production of our laboratory animals. In March 2011, our Tsukuba Breeding Center was struck by the Great East Japan Earthquake. Many cages fell from racks, and consequently, 14,000 mice and rats were euthanized. Moreover, this animal production facility experienced not only blackouts and water outage but also various maintenance problems. After triage of the animals, almost half of the animals kept were eventually lost. However, we recovered and resumed shipment of animals two weeks after the disaster by utilizing the CMP and BCP we initially created as a countermeasure against novel influenza. After two months, our production volume returned to normal except for two strains. I sincerely hope this review, which highlights our experience and related issues, will be a useful resource in regard to crisis management for people who are engaged in laboratory animal care and use.
Abaimov, S. G.; Turcotte, D. L.; Shcherbakov, R.; Rundle, J. B.; Yakovlev, G.; Goltz, C.; Newman, W. I.
The purpose of this paper is to discuss the statistical distributions of recurrence times of earthquakes. Recurrence times are the time intervals between successive earthquakes at a specified location on a specified fault. Although a number of statistical distributions have been proposed for recurrence times, we argue in favor of the Weibull distribution. The Weibull distribution is the only distribution that has a scale-invariant hazard function. We consider three sets of characteristic earthquakes on the San Andreas fault: (1) The Parkfield earthquakes, (2) the sequence of earthquakes identified by paleoseismic studies at the Wrightwood site, and (3) an example of a sequence of micro-repeating earthquakes at a site near San Juan Bautista. In each case we make a comparison with the applicable Weibull distribution. The number of earthquakes in each of these sequences is too small to make definitive conclusions. To overcome this difficulty we consider a sequence of earthquakes obtained from a one million year “Virtual California” simulation of San Andreas earthquakes. Very good agreement with a Weibull distribution is found. We also obtain recurrence statistics for two other model studies. The first is a modified forest-fire model and the second is a slider-block model. In both cases good agreements with Weibull distributions are obtained. Our conclusion is that the Weibull distribution is the preferred distribution for estimating the risk of future earthquakes on the San Andreas fault and elsewhere.
Qin, Ting-Rong; Chen, Wei-Jiong; Zeng, Xiang-Kun
Quantified risk assessment (QRA) needs mathematicization of risk theory. However, attention has been paid almost exclusively to applications of assessment methods, which has led to neglect of research into fundamental theories, such as the relationships among risk, safety, danger, and so on. In order to solve this problem, as a first step, fundamental theoretical relationships about risk and risk management were analyzed for this paper in the light of mathematics, and then illustrated with some charts. Second, man-machine-environment-management (MMEM) theory was introduced into risk theory to analyze some properties of risk. On the basis of this, a three-dimensional model of risk management was established that includes: a goal dimension; a management dimension; an operation dimension. This goal management operation (GMO) model was explained and then emphasis was laid on the discussion of the risk flowchart (operation dimension), which lays the groundwork for further study of risk management and qualitative and quantitative assessment. Next, the relationship between Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) and Risk Management was researched. This revealed that the FSA method, which the international maritime organization (IMO) is actively spreading, comes from Risk Management theory. Finally, conclusion were made about how to apply this risk management method to concrete fields efficiently and conveniently, as well as areas where further research is required.
To supplement data in the report Preliminary Determination of Epicenters (PDE), the National earthquake Information Service (NEIS) also publishes a quarterly circular, Earthquakes in the United States. This provides information on the felt area of U.S earthquakes and their intensity. The main purpose is to describe the larger effects of these earthquakes so that they can be used in seismic risk studies, site evaluations for nuclear power plants, and answering inquiries by the general public.
Shen, Jianfei; Wang, Yige
This paper derived from the background that electric power enterprises strengthen their risk management under requirements of the government. For the power industry, we explained the risk management theory, analysed current macro environment as well as basic situation, then classified and interpreted the main risks. In a case study on a power bureau, we established a risk management system based on deep understanding about the characteristics of its organization system and risk management function. Then, we focused on risks in operation as well as incorrupt government construction to give a more effective framework of the risk management system. Finally, we came up with the problems and specific countermeasures in risk management, which provided a reference for other electric power enterprises.
Eisner, R. K.
This presentation will describe a collaborative dialogue process between earth scientists and emergency management officials that focused on translation of science into policy, building long term trust based relationships between sectors and unified presentation of hazards, risks and consequence management to public officials and the general public. The author will describe the structure and process of the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (CEPEC) in assessing the credibility of long and short term earthquake predictions, assessment of risk, and the formulation of public communication strategies and preparatory actions by government agencies. For nearly 4 decades, earth scientists, politically appointed state officials and emergency managers have engaged in ongoing discussions of the policy implications of research on potential seismic risk. Some discussions were scheduled and occurred over months, and others were ad hoc and occurred in the minutes between potential precursory incidents and possible large events. The effectiveness of this process was dependent on building respect for ones counterparts expertise, bias and responsibilities, clear communication of data, uncertainty and knowledge of the physical models assumed, history and probabilities; and the physical and political consequences of possible events; and the costs and economic and social disruption of alternative preparedness actions. But, the dialogue included political and social scientists, representatives of the print and broadcast media, political and management officials from federal, state and local governments. The presentation will provide an assessment of the effectiveness of the collaborative dialogue process and lessons on sustaining a long term partnership among the participating federal, state and local officials.
de Ville de Goyet, C
The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) has 25 years of experience dealing with major natural disasters. This piece provides a preliminary review of the events taking place in the weeks following the major earthquakes in El Salvador on 13 January and 13 February 2001. It also describes the lessons that have been learned over the last 25 years and the impact that the El Salvador earthquakes and other disasters have had on the health of the affected populations. Topics covered include mass-casualties management, communicable diseases, water supply, managing donations and international assistance, damages to the health-facilities infrastructure, mental health, and PAHO's role in disasters.
Lindell, Michael K; Arlikatti, Sudha; Prater, Carla S
This study examined respondents' self-reported adoption of 16 hazard adjustments (preimpact actions to reduce danger to persons and property), their perceptions of those adjustments' attributes, and the correlations of those perceived attributes with respondents' demographic characteristics. The sample comprised 561 randomly selected residents from three cities in Southern California prone to high seismic risk and three cities from Western Washington prone to moderate seismic risks. The results show that the hazard adjustment perceptions were defined by hazard-related attributes and resource-related attributes. More significantly, the respondents had a significant degree of consensus in their ratings of those attributes and used them to differentiate among the hazard adjustments, as indicated by statistically significant differences among the hazard adjustment profiles. Finally, there were many significant correlations between respondents' demographic characteristics and the perceived characteristics of hazard adjustments, but there were few consistent patterns among these correlations.
The Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management (DREAM) tool was developed as part of the effort to quantify the risk of geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2) under the U.S. Department of Energy's National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). DREAM is an optimization tool created to identify optimal monitoring schemes that minimize the time to first detection of CO 2 leakage from a subsurface storage formation. DREAM acts as a post-processer on user-provided output from subsurface leakage simulations. While DREAM was developed for CO 2 leakage scenarios, it is applicable to any subsurface leakage simulation of the same output format.more » The DREAM tool is comprised of three main components: (1) a Java wizard used to configure and execute the simulations, (2) a visualization tool to view the domain space and optimization results, and (3) a plotting tool used to analyze the results. A secondary Java application is provided to aid users in converting common American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) output data to the standard DREAM hierarchical data format (HDF5). DREAM employs a simulated annealing approach that searches the solution space by iteratively mutating potential monitoring schemes built of various configurations of monitoring locations and leak detection parameters. This approach has proven to be orders of magnitude faster than an exhaustive search of the entire solution space. The user's manual illustrates the program graphical user interface (GUI), describes the tool inputs, and includes an example application.« less
Denman, Matthew R.; Groth, Katrina; Cardoni, Jeffrey N.
Accident management is an important component to maintaining risk at acceptable levels for all complex systems, such as nuclear power plants. With the introduction of self - correcting, or inherently safe, reactor designs the focus has shifted from management by operators to allowing the syste m's design to manage the accident. While inherently and passively safe designs are laudable, extreme boundary conditions can interfere with the design attributes which facilitate inherent safety , thus resulting in unanticipated and undesirable end states. This report examines an inherently safe and small sodium fast reactor experiencing a beyond design basis seismic event withmore » the intend of exploring two issues : (1) can human intervention either improve or worsen the potential end states and (2) can a Bayes ian Network be constructed to infer the state of the reactor to inform (1). ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author s would like to acknowledge the U.S. Department of E nergy's Office of Nuclear Energy for funding this research through Work Package SR - 14SN100303 under the Advanced Reactor Concepts program. The authors also acknowledge the PRA teams at A rgonne N ational L aborator y , O ak R idge N ational L aborator y , and I daho N ational L aborator y for their continue d contributions to the advanced reactor PRA mission area.« less
Mering, M. M.; Aminudin, E.; Chai, C. S.; Zakaria, R.; Tan, C. S.; Lee, Y. Y.; Redzuan, A. A.
An efficient and effective risk management required a systematic and proper methodology besides knowledge and experience. However, if the risk management is not discussed from the starting of the project, this duty is notably complicated and no longer efficient. This paper presents the adoption of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in project planning risk management. The objectives is to identify the traditional risk management practices and its function, besides, determine the best function of BIM in risk management and investigating the efficiency of adopting BIM-based risk management during the project planning phase. In order to obtain data, a quantitative approach is adopted in this research. Based on data analysis, the lack of compliance with project requirements and failure to recognise risk and develop responses to opportunity are the risks occurred when traditional risk management is implemented. When using BIM in project planning, it works as the tracking of cost control and cash flow give impact on the project cycle to be completed on time. 5D cost estimation or cash flow modeling benefit risk management in planning, controlling and managing budget and cost reasonably. There were two factors that mostly benefit a BIM-based technology which were formwork plan with integrated fall plan and design for safety model check. By adopting risk management, potential risks linked with a project and acknowledging to those risks can be identified to reduce them to an acceptable extent. This means recognizing potential risks and avoiding threat by reducing their negative effects. The BIM-based risk management can enhance the planning process of construction projects. It benefits the construction players in various aspects. It is important to know the application of BIM-based risk management as it can be a lesson learnt to others to implement BIM and increase the quality of the project.
Ickert, Johanna; Stewart, Iain S.
An important paradox of hazard communication is that the more effectively a potential physical threat is made public by the scientist, the more readily the scientific message becomes normalized into the daily discourses of ordinary life. As a result, a heightened risk awareness does not necessarily motivate personal or collective preparedness. If geoscientists are to help at-risk communities adopt meaningful measures to protect themselves, new strategies are needed for public communication and community engagement. This paper outlines an attempt to develop a novel approach to train geoscientists, using doctoral and post-doctoral researchers in an EU integrated training network studying tectonic processes and geohazards in Turkey. An urban field visit to seismically vulnerable neighbourhoods in Istanbul allowed the researchers to meet with local residents facing the seismic threat. Those meetings exposed the complex social, political and cultural concerns among Istanbul's at-risk urban communities. These concerns were used to provoke subsequent focus group discussions among the group of geoscientists about roles, responsibilities and methods of communicating hazard information to the public. Through the direct testimony of local residents and geoscientists, we explore the form that new strategies for public communication and community engagement might take.
... for the transaction of the business of the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation and the Risk Management... 7 Agriculture 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Administrator, Risk Management Agency and Manager... Management Agency and Manager, Federal Crop Insurance Corporation. (a) Delegations. Pursuant to § 2.16(a)(4...
Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.
The term "nowcasting" refers to the estimation of the current uncertain state of a dynamical system, whereas "forecasting" is a calculation of probabilities of future state(s). Nowcasting is a term that originated in economics and finance, referring to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or market indicators such as GDP at the current time by indirect means. We have applied this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of a system of faults, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EA000185/full). Advantages of our nowcasting method over forecasting models include: 1) Nowcasting is simply data analysis and does not involve a model having parameters that must be fit to data; 2) We use only earthquake catalog data which generally has known errors and characteristics; and 3) We use area-based analysis rather than fault-based analysis, meaning that the methods work equally well on land and in subduction zones. To use the nowcast method to estimate how far the fault system has progressed through the "cycle" of large recurring earthquakes, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. We select a "small" region in which the nowcast is to be made, and compute the statistics of a much larger region around the small region. The statistics of the large region are then applied to the small region. For an application, we can define a small region around major global cities, for example a "small" circle of radius 150 km and a depth of 100 km, as well as a "large" earthquake magnitude, for example M6.0. The region of influence of such earthquakes is roughly 150 km radius x 100 km depth, which is the reason these values were selected. We can then compute and rank the seismic risk of the world's major cities in terms of their relative seismic risk
Raymond, C. A.; Lundgren, P. R.; Madsen, S. N.; Rundle, J. B.
Advances in understanding of the earthquake cycle and in assessing earthquake hazards is a topic of great importance. Dynamic earthquake hazard assessments resolved for a range of spatial scales and time scales will allow a more systematic approach to prioritizing the retrofitting of vulnerable structures, relocating populations at risk, protecting lifelines, preparing for disasters, and educating the public.
Erdik, M.; Durukal, E.; Sesetyan, K.
Through a World Bank project a government-sponsored Turkish Catastrophic Insurance Pool (TCIP) is created in 2000 with the essential aim of transferring the government's financial burden of replacing earthquake-damaged housing to international reinsurance and capital markets. Providing coverage to about 2.9 Million homeowners TCIP is the largest insurance program in the country with about 0.5 Billion USD in its own reserves and about 2.3 Billion USD in total claims paying capacity. The total payment for earthquake damage since 2000 (mostly small, 226 earthquakes) amounts to about 13 Million USD. The country-wide penetration rate is about 22%, highest in the Marmara region (30%) and lowest in the south-east Turkey (9%). TCIP is the sole-source provider of earthquake loss coverage up to 90,000 USD per house. The annual premium, categorized on the basis of earthquake zones type of structure, is about US90 for a 100 square meter reinforced concrete building in the most hazardous zone with 2% deductible. The earthquake engineering related shortcomings of the TCIP is exemplified by fact that the average rate of 0.13% (for reinforced concrete buildings) with only 2% deductible is rather low compared to countries with similar earthquake exposure. From an earthquake engineering point of view the risk underwriting (Typification of housing units to be insured, earthquake intensity zonation and the sum insured) of the TCIP needs to be overhauled. Especially for large cities, models can be developed where its expected earthquake performance (and consequently the insurance premium) can be can be assessed on the basis of the location of the unit (microzoned earthquake hazard) and basic structural attributes (earthquake vulnerability relationships). With such an approach, in the future the TCIP can contribute to the control of construction through differentiation of premia on the basis of earthquake vulnerability.
Provides a survey and a review of earthquake activity and global tectonics from the advancement of the theory of continental drift to the present. Topics include: an identification of the major seismic regions of the earth, seismic measurement techniques, seismic design criteria for buildings, and the prediction of earthquakes. (BT)
Banholzer, William F; Vosejpka, Laura J
Several key strategies can be used to manage the risk associated with innovation to create maximum value. These include balancing the timing of investments versus cash flows, management of fads, prioritization across the company, savvy portfolio management, and a system of metrics that measure real success. Successful R&D managers will do whatever is necessary to manage the risks associated with an R&D program and stick to their long-term strategy.
Bachri, S.; Stöetter, J.; Sartohadi, J.; Setiawan, M. A.
Merapi (Central Java Province) and Bromo (East Java Province) volcanoes have human-environmental systems with unique characteristics, thus causing specific consequences on their risk management. Various efforts have been carried out by many parties (institutional government, scientists, and non-governmental organizations) to reduce the risk in these areas. However, it is likely that most of the actions have been done for temporary and partial purposes, leading to overlapping work and finally to a non-integrated scheme of volcanic risk management. This study, therefore, aims to identify and evaluate actions of risk and disaster reduction in Merapi and Bromo Volcanoes. To achieve this aims, a thorough literature review was carried out to identify earlier studies in both areas. Afterward, the basic concept of risk management cycle, consisting of risk assessment, risk reduction, event management and regeneration, is used to map those earlier studies and already implemented risk management actions in Merapi and Bromo. The results show that risk studies in Merapi have been developed predominantly on physical aspects of volcanic eruptions, i.e. models of lahar flows, hazard maps as well as other geophysical modeling. Furthermore, after the 2006 eruption of Merapi, research such on risk communication, social vulnerability, cultural vulnerability have appeared on the social side of risk management research. Apart from that, disaster risk management activities in the Bromo area were emphasizing on physical process and historical religious aspects. This overview of both study areas provides information on how risk studies have been used for managing the volcano disaster. This result confirms that most of earlier studies emphasize on the risk assessment and only few of them consider the risk reduction phase. Further investigation in this field work in the near future will accomplish the findings and contribute to formulate integrated volcanic risk management cycles for both
Wang, Huanlin; Jin, Hua; Nunnink, Sarah E; Guo, Wei; Sun, Jian; Shi, Jianan; Zhao, Bin; Bi, Yinhau; Yan, Tongjun; Yu, Haiying; Wang, Guangjian; Gao, Zhiqing; Zhao, Hanqing; Ou, Yanghui; Song, Zixiagn; Chen, Fangbin; Lohr, James B; Baker, Dewleen G
Military personnel commonly serve as first responders to natural disasters. Our aim is to identify Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) and determine risk in military responders to the Wen Chuan earthquake. Analyses were carried out on 1056 of the 1125 soldiers enrolled. In addition to social demographic characteristics, the Davidson Trauma Scale (DTS) and an Earthquake exposure screening scale were administered. PTSD prevalence was 6.53% (69 cases). Logistic regression indicated that intensity of traumatic exposure (odds ratio 6.46, 95% CI 4.47-9.32, p<0.001), not having received psychological counseling (odds ratio 3.28, 95% CI 1.31-8.20, p<0.02) and regular drinking (odds ratio 2.42, 95% CI 1.04-5.62, p<0.05) were significant predictors of PTSD. Being a single-child, not being raised by both parents and regular smoking also independently predicted PTSD if intensity of earthquake traumatic exposure was not included in the model. The self-rated DTS was used to classify PTSD in this study and psychiatric co-morbidity outside of PTSD was not assessed in this sample. PTSD is a concern for Military disaster responders; to identify those with high risk of developing PTSD would be important and beneficial. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Analogs are used to understand complex or poorly understood phenomena for which little data may be available at the actual repository site. Earthquakes are complex phenomena, and they can have a large number of effects on the natural system, as well as on engineered structures. Instrumental data close to the source of large earthquakes are rarely obtained. The rare events for which measurements are available may be used, with modfications, as analogs for potential large earthquakes at sites where no earthquake data are available. In the following, several examples of nuclear reactor and liquified natural gas facility siting are discussed.more » A potential use of analog earthquakes is proposed for a high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repository.« less
Bauder, Stephen P.
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Division has implemented an innovative approach to Enterprise Risk Management under a unique governance structure and streamlined integration model. ESD's mission is to design and build the capability to extend human existence to deep space. The Enterprise consists of three Programs: Space Launch System (SLS), Orion, and Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO). The SLS is a rocket and launch system that will be capable of powering humans, habitats, and support systems to deep space. Orion will be the first spacecraft in history capable of taking humans to multiple destinations within deep space. GSDO is modernizing Kennedy's spaceport to launch spacecraft built and designed by both NASA and private industry. ESD's approach to Enterprise Risk Management is commensurate with affordability and a streamlined management philosophy. ESD Enterprise Risk Management leverages off of the primary mechanisms for integration within the Enterprise. The Enterprise integration approach emphasizes delegation of authority to manage and execute the majority of cross-program activities and products to the individual Programs, while maintaining the overall responsibility for all cross-program activities at the Division. The intent of the ESD Enterprise Risk Management approach is to improve risk communication, to avoid replication and/or contradictory strategies, and to minimize overhead process burden. This is accomplished by the facilitation and integration of risk information within ESD. The ESD Division risks, Orion risks, SLS risks, and GSDO risks are owned and managed by the applicable Program. When the Programs have shared risks with multiple consequences, they are jointly owned and managed. When a risk is associated with the integrated system that involves more than one Program in condition, consequence, or mitigation plan, it is considered an Exploration Systems Integration
Mehrtens, Ilayna K; Crapanzano, Kathleen; Tynes, L Lee
Psychotherapy competence is a core skill for psychiatry residents, and psychotherapy supervision is a time-honored approach to teaching this skill. To explore the current supervision practices of psychiatry training programs, a 24-item questionnaire was sent to all program directors of Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME)-approved adult psychiatry programs. The questionnaire included items regarding adherence to recently proposed therapy supervision practices aimed at reducing potential liability risk. The results suggested that current therapy supervision practices do not include sufficient management of the potential liability involved in therapy supervision. Better protections for patients, residents, supervisors and the institutions would be possible with improved credentialing practices and better documentation of informed consent and supervision policies and procedures. © 2017 American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law.
Shryock, T R
Much effort has been invested in the development and implementation of international recommendations to manage the risk of foodborne antimicrobial resistance, and monitoring programmes to measure bacterial antimicrobial resistance and antimicrobial product volumes. A variety of approaches have been recommended for various stakeholders in the food animal and food production sectors. Interestingly, much less consideration has been given to the establishment of success criteria for the individual interventions and even less for the cumulative effects, when all interventions are considered together as consecutive 'hurdles' along the food chain. The author explores the outcome and unforeseen consequences of these various interventions and appropriate methods that could provide data to assess their impact, as well as key learning experiences that should lead to refinements of such interventions in the future.
Kim, Jeoum Nam; Lee, Byung Mu
Health risks associated with long periods of time in flight are of concern to astronauts, crew members, and passengers. Many epidemiological studies showed that occupational and frequent flyers may be susceptible to ocular, cardiovascular, neurological, pulmonary, gastrointestinal, sensory, immunological, physiological, and even developmental disorders. In addition, the incidences of cancer and food poisoning are expected to be higher in such individuals. This article reviews health risks and risk factors associated with air travel, and discusses risk management strategies. To reduce adverse health risks, risk factors such as radiation, infection, stress, temperature, pressure, and circadian rhythm need to be avoided or reduced to levels that are as low as technologically achievable to protect flight personnel and passengers.
Often, the performance of risk management techniques is evaluated by measuring the concentrations of the chemials of concern before and after risk management effoprts. However, using bioassays and chemical data provides a more robust understanding of the effectiveness of risk man...
... COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION 17 CFR Part 39 RIN 3038-AC98 Risk Management Requirements for... other things, would implement DCO Core Principle D (Risk Management) and would establish a related... framework to reduce risk, increase transparency, and promote market integrity within the financial system...
Marc Hanewinkel; Susan Hummel; Axel Albrecht
We address the problem of how to integrate risk assessment into forest management and therefore provide a comprehensive review of recent and past literature on risk analysis and modeling and, moreover, an evaluation and summary on these papers. We provide a general scheme on how to integrate concepts of risk into forest management decisions. After an overview of the...
The ultimate purpose of the SRM tactical phase is to choose how to manage risk. Prior to this stage, we determined the sources of risk, identified the relevant management actions and estimated the likelihood of all known outcomes. Next, we combine this information with your personal risk preference...
Provides a framework that incorporates the diverse elements of risk management in science education into a systematic process and is adaptable to changing circumstances. Appendix contains risk management checklist for management, laboratory and storage, extreme biological and chemical hazards, protective equipment, waste disposal, electrical…
How a camp responds to a crisis may determine whether it can survive financially. Effective risk management requires total commitment from ownership and management, and staff involvement. Steps in formulating a risk management plan include identifying all potential crises and their frequency and severity potential, developing responses,…
... are not limited to: prudent project management; use of modular contracting; thorough acquisition... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Management of risk. 39.102... CONTRACTING ACQUISITION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY General 39.102 Management of risk. (a) Prior to entering...
... are not limited to: prudent project management; use of modular contracting; thorough acquisition... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Management of risk. 39.102... CONTRACTING ACQUISITION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY General 39.102 Management of risk. (a) Prior to entering...
... are not limited to: prudent project management; use of modular contracting; thorough acquisition... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Management of risk. 39.102... CONTRACTING ACQUISITION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY General 39.102 Management of risk. (a) Prior to entering...
... are not limited to: prudent project management; use of modular contracting; thorough acquisition... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Management of risk. 39.102... CONTRACTING ACQUISITION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY General 39.102 Management of risk. (a) Prior to entering...
Allen, Stewart D.
This survey was conducted to determine the frequency of participation in high-risk recreation activities in the Northern Rocky Mountains and to identify how wildland managers perceive the presence of these sports and the problems associated with them. Managers rated perceived risk, management difficulty, and appropriateness given management…
Davis, Frank W.; And Others
This manual is designed to educate human service agency management personnel involved in transportation about basic risk management principles and insurance issues. Chapter I illustrates the liability factors that create the insurance and risk management needs. Both legal and humanitarian obligations of human service agencies involved in…
Gail Blatternberger; William F. Hyde; Thomas J. Mills
In the past, decisionmaking in wildland fire management generally has not included a full consideration of the risk and uncertainty that is inherent in evaluating alternatives. Fire management policies in some Federal land management agencies now require risk evaluation. The model for estimating the economic efficiency of fire program alternatives is the minimization...
van Dijk, Heleen; Houghton, Julie; van Kleef, Ellen; van der Lans, Ivo; Rowe, Gene; Frewer, Lynn
Recent emphasis within policy circles has been on transparent communication with consumers about food risk management decisions and practices. As a consequence, it is important to develop best practice regarding communication with the public about how food risks are managed. In the current study, the provision of information about regulatory enforcement, proactive risk management, scientific uncertainty and risk variability were manipulated in an experiment designed to examine their impact on consumer perceptions of food risk management quality. In order to compare consumer reactions across different cases, three food hazards were selected (mycotoxins on organically grown food, pesticide residues, and a genetically modified potato). Data were collected from representative samples of consumers in Germany, Greece, Norway and the UK. Scores on the "perceived food risk management quality" scale were subjected to a repeated-measures mixed linear model. Analysis points to a number of important findings, including the existence of cultural variation regarding the impact of risk communication strategies-something which has obvious implications for pan-European risk communication approaches. For example, while communication of uncertainty had a positive impact in Germany, it had a negative impact in the UK and Norway. Results also indicate that food risk managers should inform the public about enforcement of safety laws when communicating scientific uncertainty associated with risks. This has implications for the coordination of risk communication strategies between risk assessment and risk management organizations.
Earthquakes are one of the most costly natural hazards faced by the Nation, posing a significant risk to 75 million Americans in 39 States. The risks that earthquakes pose to society, including death, injury, and economic loss, can be greatly reduced by (1) better planning, construction, and mitigation practices before earthquakes happen, and (2) providing critical and timely information to improve response after they occur. As part of the multi-agency National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has the lead Federal responsibility to provide notification of earthquakes in order to enhance public safety and to reduce losses through effective forecasts based on the best possible scientific information.
Aziz, Farah; Khalil, Alizan; Hall, John C
In the past, the detection and response to adverse clinical events were viewed as an inherent part of professionalism; and, if perceived problems were not sorted out at that level, the ultimate expression of dissatisfaction was litigation. There are now demands for the adoption of more transparent and effective processes for risk management. Reviews of surgical practice have highlighted the presence of unacceptable levels of avoidable adverse events. This is being resolved in two ways. First, attention is being directed to the extent that training and experience have on outcomes after surgery, and both appear to be important. Second, a greater appreciation of human factors engineering has promoted a greater involvement of surgeons in processes involving teamwork and non-technical skills. The community wants surgeons who are competent and health-care systems that minimize risk. In recent times attention has been focused on the turmoil associated with change; but, when events are viewed over a period of several decades, there has been considerable progress towards these ideals. Further advancement would be aided by removing the adversarial nature of malpractice systems that have failed to maintain standards.
Characklis, Greg; Foster, Ben; Kern, Jordan; Meyer, Eliot; Zeff, Harrison
of financial losses experienced by such entities as water utilities, hydropower producers and inland shipping firms as a result of water scarcity, all of which suggest a growing role for financial instruments in managing environmental risk.
McCaughey, J.; Dewi, P. R.
Scientists have information that is critical to policy and public education, yet lack field staff of their own to put this into practice. NGOs have field staff as well as connections with policymakers and the community, yet lack a direct connection to the latest scientific research. Scientists face pressure to obtain grants and publish; NGOs face pressure to deliver programs to as many people as possible. Lacking institutional incentives that recognize efforts to bridge the science-practice gap, it is often out of personal convictions that scientists seek to share their results with NGOs, and NGO practitioners seek to deepen their own scientific knowledge. Such individual efforts are impactful; however, more can be achieved with institutional commitments to closer collaboration. Science communication is dialogue, not a one-way transfer of knowledge from science to practice. On the university side, listening to our NGO partners has inspired faculty, staff, and students, identified new areas of fundamental scientific research inspired by practical use, and helped prioritize and clarify the scientific information that is most useful for disaster-risk-reduction practice. On the NGO side, connections to scientists have informed the content of public education and policy advocacy programs and clarified technical information; this new understanding has been incorporated in advocacy and community engagement programs.
Nagai, Masato; Ohira, Tetsuya; Yasumura, Seiji; Takahashi, Hideto; Yuki, Michiko; Nakano, Hironori; Wen, Zhang; Yabe, Hirooki; Ohtsuru, Akira; Maeda, Masaharu; Takase, Kanae
Objectives: Prevalence of life-style disease has increased dramatically in evacuees due to the Great East Japan Earthquake. One reason may be that physical activity level decreased from life environment changes due to evacuation. However, associations between evacuation condition and habitual physical activity have not been studied. We examined this association in Fukushima residents who participated in the Fukushima Health Management Survey. Methods: In this study, 37,843 evacuees from 13 municipal evacuation zones from the nuclear-power accident caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake, born before April 1, 1995, were included in the analysis. Evacuation condition was defined by disaster living place (13 zones), evacuation place (inside or outside the prefecture), and current living status (evacuation shelter or temporary housing, rental housing/ apartment, and relative's home or own home). Habitual physical activity was defined from self-administered questionnaires as participants who responded "almost every day" and "2-4 times/week" of regular exercise. In the analysis, habitual physical activity prevalence was aggregated by gender and variables (living place in the disaster, evacuation place, and current living status). Prevalence was adjusted for age, disaster living place, evacuation place, and current living status by standard analysis of covariance methods. Results: Adjusted prevalences of habitual physical activity were: men, 27.9-46.5%; women, 27.0-43.7% in each disaster living place. The differences were 18.6% point in men and 16.7% point in women. For evacuation place, physical activity outside the prefecture for men (37.7%) and inside the prefecture for women (32.1%) were higher, but those differences were only 2.2% point and 1.8% point in men and women, respectively. For current living status, physical activity of those in rental housing/ apartment was the lowest; evacuation shelter or temporary housing was the highest in both genders (men: 38
Cash, Charles D
This ongoing column is dedicated to providing information to our readers on managing legal risks associated with medical practice. We invite questions from our readers. The answers are provided by PRMS, Inc. (www.prms.com), a manager of medical professional liability insurance programs with services that include risk management consultation, education and onsite risk management audits, and other resources to healthcare providers to help improve patient outcomes and reduce professional liability risk. The answers published in this column represent those of only one risk management consulting company. Other risk management consulting companies or insurance carriers may provide different advice, and readers should take this into consideration. The information in this column does not constitute legal advice. For legal advice, contact your personal attorney. Note: The information and recommendations in this article are applicable to physicians and other healthcare professionals so "clinician" is used to indicate all treatment team members.
Cash, Charles D.
This ongoing column is dedicated to providing information to our readers on managing legal risks associated with medical practice. We invite questions from our readers. The answers are provided by PRMS, Inc. (www.prms.com), a manager of medical professional liability insurance programs with services that include risk management consultation, education and onsite risk management audits, and other resources to healthcare providers to help improve patient outcomes and reduce professional liability risk. The answers published in this column represent those of only one risk management consulting company. Other risk management consulting companies or insurance carriers may provide different advice, and readers should take this into consideration. The information in this column does not constitute legal advice. For legal advice, contact your personal attorney. Note: The information and recommendations in this article are applicable to physicians and other healthcare professionals so “clinician” is used to indicate all treatment team members. PMID:28386523
The Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011, besides further studying the appropriateness of the initial response and post-countermeasures against the severe Fukushima nuclear accident, has now increased the importance of the epidemiological study in comprehensive health risk management and radiation protection; lessons learnt from the Chernobyl accident should be also implemented. Therefore, since May 2011, Fukushima Prefecture has started the "Fukushima Health Management Survey Project" for the purpose of long-term health care administration and early diagnosis/treatment for the prefectural residents. Basic survey is under investigation on a retrospective estimation of external exposure of the first four months. As one of the four detailed surveys, the thyroid ultrasound examination has clarified the increased detection rate of childhood thyroid cancers as a screening effect in the past three years and so thyroid cancer occurrence by Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, especially due to radioactive iodine will be discussed despite of difficult challenge of accurate estimation of low dose and low-dose rate radiation exposures. Through the on-site valuable experience and a difficult challenge for recovery, we should learn the lessons from this severe and large-scale nuclear accident, especially how to countermeasure against public health emergency at the standpoint of health risk and also social risk management.
Karadsheh, Louay A.
This research focused on the challenges experienced when executing risk management activities for information technology projects. The lack of adequate knowledge management support of risk management activities has caused many project failures in the past. The research objective was to propose a conceptual framework of the Knowledge-Based Risk…
James, P J
The equipment management risk ratings system outlined here offers two significant departures from current practice: risk classifications are based on intrinsic device risks, and the risk rating system is based on engineering endpoints. Intrinsic device risks are categorized as physical, clinical and technical, and these flow from the incoming equipment assessment process. Engineering risk management is based on verification of engineering endpoints such as clinical measurements or energy delivery. This practice eliminates the ambiguity associated with ranking risk in terms of physiologic and higher-level outcome endpoints such as no significant hazards, low significance, injury, or mortality.
Snowberg, David; Weber, Jochem
Over the past decade, the global marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) industry has suffered a number of serious technological and commercial setbacks. To help reduce the risks of industry failures and advance the development of new technologies, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed an MHK Risk Management Framework. By addressing uncertainties, the MHK Risk Management Framework increases the likelihood of successful development of an MHK technology. It covers projects of any technical readiness level (TRL) or technical performance level (TPL) and all risk types (e.g. technological risk, regulatory risk, commercial risk) over themore » development cycle. This framework is intended for the development and deployment of a single MHK technology—not for multiple device deployments within a plant. This risk framework is intended to meet DOE’s risk management expectations for the MHK technology research and development efforts of the Water Power Program (see Appendix A). It also provides an overview of other relevant risk management tools and documentation.1 This framework emphasizes design and risk reviews as formal gates to ensure risks are managed throughout the technology development cycle. Section 1 presents the recommended technology development cycle, Sections 2 and 3 present tools to assess the TRL and TPL of the project, respectively. Section 4 presents a risk management process with design and risk reviews for actively managing risk within the project, and Section 5 presents a detailed description of a risk registry to collect the risk management information into one living document. Section 6 presents recommendations for collecting and using lessons learned throughout the development process.« less
Major Management Challenges and Program Risks Department of StateGAO-01-252 Form SF298 Citation Data Report Date ("DD MON YYYY") 00JAN2001 Report...Type N/A Dates Covered (from... to) ("DD MON YYYY") Title and Subtitle Major Management Challenges and Program Risks Department of State Contract or...special series, first issued in January 1999, entitled the Performance and Accountability Series: Major Management Challenges and Program Risks . In
Major Management Challenges and Program Risks Department of the InteriorGAO-01-249 Report Date ("DD MON YYYY") 00JAN2001 Report Type N/A Dates...Covered (from... to) ("DD MON YYYY") Title and Subtitle Major Management Challenges and Program Risks Department of the Interior Contract or Grant...first issued in January 1999, entitled the Performance and Accountability Series: Major Management Challenges and Program Risks . In that series, GAO
Abercrombie, Robert K
The Department of Energy Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (DOE-OE) CyberSecurity for Energy Delivery Systems (CSEDS) industry led program (DE-FOA-0000359) entitled "Innovation for Increasing CyberSecurity for Energy Delivery Systems (12CSEDS)," awarded a contract to Sypris Electronics LLC to develop a Cryptographic Key Management System for the smart grid (Scalable Key Management Solutions for Critical Infrastructure Protection). Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Sypris Electronics, LLC as a result of that award entered into a CRADA (NFE-11-03562) between ORNL and Sypris Electronics, LLC. ORNL provided its Cyber Security Econometrics System (CSES) as a tool to be modified and usedmore » as a metric to address risks and vulnerabilities in the management of cryptographic keys within the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) domain of the electric sector. ORNL concentrated our analysis on the AMI domain of which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) Working Group 1 (WG1) has documented 29 failure scenarios. The computational infrastructure of this metric involves system stakeholders, security requirements, system components and security threats. To compute this metric, we estimated the stakes that each stakeholder associates with each security requirement, as well as stochastic matrices that represent the probability of a threat to cause a component failure and the probability of a component failure to cause a security requirement violation. We applied this model to estimate the security of the AMI, by leveraging the recently established National Institute of Standards and Technology Interagency Report (NISTIR) 7628 guidelines for smart grid security and the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) 63351, Part 9 to identify the life cycle for cryptographic key management, resulting in a vector that assigned to each stakeholder an estimate of their average loss in terms of dollars per day of
Miller, Vivian B
Whether directly involved in development and implementation of the organization's risk financing program or not, risk management professionals, at the very least, need to be familiar with and understand the various risk financing strategies available to address all areas of exposure. This article addresses the types of coverages and risk financing options that should be considered when developing a comprehensive risk-financing program, and why it is important for risk management professionals to have some knowledge about these products, in order for their true value to be fully appreciated. © 2011 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.
Muir-Cochrane, Eimear; Gerace, Adam; Mosel, Krista; O'Kane, Debra; Barkway, Patricia; Curren, David; Oster, Candice
Risk assessment and management is a major component of contemporary mental health practice. Risk assessment in health care exists within contemporary perspectives of management and risk aversive practices in health care. This has led to much discussion about the best approach to assessing possible risks posed by people with mental health problems. In addition, researchers and commentators have expressed concern that clinical practice is being dominated by managerial models of risk management at the expense of meeting the patient's health and social care needs. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the risk assessment practices of a multidisciplinary mental health service. Findings indicate that mental health professionals draw on both managerial and therapeutic approaches to risk management, integrating these approaches into their clinical practice. Rather than being dominated by managerial concerns regarding risk, the participants demonstrate professional autonomy and concern for the needs of their clients.
Providing the ultimate decision makers with a quantitative risk analysis based on thoughtful assessment by the organization's experts enables an efficient decision. © 2017 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.
Allergan, a multi-specialty healthcare company and pharmaceutical manufacturer, discusses how it manages climate and energy risks, how these areas are linked, and how energy and climate management strategies pervade critical business decisions.
Munirwansyah; Irsyam, Masyhur; Munirwan, Reza P.; Yunita, Halida; Zulfan Usrina, M.
Occupational safety and health (OSH) is a planned effort to prevent accidents and diseases caused by work. In conducting mining activities often occur work accidents caused by unsafe field conditions. In open mine area, there is often a slump due to unstable slopes, which can disrupt the activities and productivity of mining companies. Based on research on stability of open pit slopes conducted by Febrianti , the Meureubo coal mine located in Aceh Barat district, on the slope of mine was indicated unsafe slope conditions, it will be continued research on OSH for landslide which is to understand the stability of the excavation slope and the shape of the slope collapse. Plaxis software was used for this research. After analyzing the slope stability and the effect of landslide on OSH with Job Safety Analysis (JSA) method, to identify the hazard to work safety, risk management analysis will be conducted to classified hazard level and its handling technique. This research aim is to know the level of risk of work accident at the company and its prevention effort. The result of risk analysis research is very high-risk value that is > 350 then the activity must be stopped until the risk can be reduced to reach the risk value limit < 20 which is allowed or accepted.
Zwikael, Ofer; Ahn, Mark
This article examines the effectiveness of current risk management practices to reduce project risk using a multinational, multi-industry study across different scenarios and cultures. A survey was administered to 701 project managers, and their supervisors, in seven industries and three diverse countries (New Zealand, Israel, and Japan), in multiple languages during the 2002-2007 period. Results of this study show that project context--industry and country where a project is executed--significantly impacts perceived levels of project risk, and the intensity of risk management processes. Our findings also suggest that risk management moderates the relationship between risk level and project success. Specifically, we found that even moderate levels of risk management planning are sufficient to reduce the negative effect risk levels have on project success. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.
Collins, Loel; Collins, Dave
Adventure sport coaches practice in environments that are dynamic and high in risk, both perceived and actual. The inherent risks associated with these activities, individuals' responses and the optimal exploitation of both combine to make the processes of risk management more complex and hazardous than the traditional sports where risk management…
Theories to evaluate the risks and benefits of various acquisition alternatives and allowed researchers to monitor the process students used to make a...revealed distinct risk-management strategies. 15. SUBJECT TERMS risk managements, acquisition process, expected value theory , multi-attribute utility theory ...Utility Theories to evaluate the risks and benefits of various acquisition alternatives, and allowed us to monitor the process subjects used to arrive at
Slingsby, Aidan; Dykes, Jason; Wood, Jo; Foote, Matthew
Risk management involves the cooperation of scientists, underwriters and actuaries all of whom analyse data to support decision-making. Results are often disseminated through static documents with graphics that convey the message the analyst wishes to communicate. Interactive graphics are increasingly popular means of communicating the results of data analyses because they enable other parties to explore and visually analyse some of the data themselves prior to and during discussion. Discussion around interactive graphics can occur synchronously in face-to-face meetings or with video-conferencing and screen sharing or they can occur asynchronously through web-sites such as ManyEyes, web-based fora, blogs, wikis and email. A limitation of approaches that do not involve screen sharing is the difficulty in sharing the results of insights from interacting with the graphic. Static images accompanied can be shared but these themselves cannot be interacted, producing a discussion bottleneck (Baker, 2008). We address this limitation by allowing the state and configuration of graphics to be shared (rather than static images) so that a user can reproduce someone else's graphic, interact with it and then share the results of this accompanied with some commentary. HiVE (Slingsby et al, 2009) is a compact and intuitive text-based language that has been designed for this purpose. We will describe the vizTweets project (a 9-month project funded by JISC) in which we are applying these principles to insurance risk management in the context of the Willis Research Network, the world's largest collaboration between the insurance industry and the academia). The project aims to extend HiVE to meet the needs of the sector, design, implement free-available web services and tools and to provide case studies. We will present a case study that demonstrate the potential of this approach for collaboration within the Willis Research Network. Baker, D. Towards Transparency in Visualisation Based
Connley, Warren; Rad, Adrian; Botzum, Stephen
As NASA Project Risk Management activities continue to evolve, the need to successfully integrate risk management processes across the life cycle, between functional disciplines, stakeholders, various management policies, and within cost, schedule and performance requirements/constraints become more evident and important. Today's programs and projects are complex undertakings that include a myriad of processes, tools, techniques, management arrangements and other variables all of which must function together in order to achieve mission success. The perception and impact of risk may vary significantly among stakeholders and may influence decisions that may have unintended consequences on the project during a future phase of the life cycle. In these cases, risks may be unintentionally and/or arbitrarily transferred to others without the benefit of a comprehensive systemic risk assessment. Integrating risk across people, processes, and project requirements/constraints serves to enhance decisions, strengthen communication pathways, and reinforce the ability of the project team to identify and manage risks across the broad spectrum of project management responsibilities. The ability to identify risks in all areas of project management increases the likelihood a project will identify significant issues before they become problems and allows projects to make effective and efficient use of shrinking resources. By getting a total team integrated risk effort, applying a disciplined and rigorous process, along with understanding project requirements/constraints provides the opportunity for more effective risk management. Applying an integrated approach to risk management makes it possible to do a better job at balancing safety, cost, schedule, operational performance and other elements of risk. This paper will examine how people, processes, and project requirements/constraints can be integrated across the project lifecycle for better risk management and ultimately improve the
Canora, C.; Martínez-Díaz, J.; Álvarez-Gómez, J.; Villamor, P.; Ínsua-Arévalo, J.; Alonso-Henar, J.; Capote, R.
Historically, large earthquakes, Mw ≥ 7.0, in the Εl Salvador area have been attributed to activity in the Cocos-Caribbean subduction zone. Τhis is correct for most of the earthquakes of magnitude greater than 6.5. However, recent paleoseismic evidence points to the existence of large earthquakes associated with rupture of the Εl Salvador Fault Ζone, an Ε-W oriented strike slip fault system that extends for 150 km through central Εl Salvador. Τo calibrate our results from paleoseismic studies, we have analyzed the historical seismicity of the area. In particular, we suggest that the 1719 earthquake can be associated with paleoseismic activity evidenced in the Εl Salvador Fault Ζone. Α reinterpreted isoseismal map for this event suggests that the damage reported could have been a consequence of the rupture of Εl Salvador Fault Ζone, rather than rupture of the subduction zone. Τhe isoseismal is not different to other upper crustal earthquakes in similar tectonovolcanic environments. We thus challenge the traditional assumption that only the subduction zone is capable of generating earthquakes of magnitude greater than 7.0 in this region. Τhis result has broad implications for future risk management in the region. Τhe potential occurrence of strong ground motion, significantly higher and closer to the Salvadorian populations that those assumed to date, must be considered in seismic hazard assessment studies in this area.
Ruch, Markus; Sackmann, Stefan
Increasing potential for turnover in e-commerce is inextricably linked with an increase in risk. Online retailers (e-tailers), aiming for a company-wide value orientation should manage this risk. However, current approaches to risk management either use average retail prices elevated by an overall risk premium or restrict the payment methods offered to customers. Thus, they neglect customer-specific value and risk attributes and leave turnover potentials unconsidered. To close this gap, an innovative valuation model is proposed in this contribution that integrates customer-specific risk and potential turnover. The approach presented evaluates different payment methods using their risk-turnover characteristic, provides a risk-adjusted decision basis for selecting payment methods and allows e-tailers to derive automated risk management decisions per customer and transaction without reducing turnover potential.
Interrigi, Maria Concetta; Trovato, Francesca M; Catalano, Daniela; Trovato, Guglielmo M
Purpose Thoracic ultrasound (TUS) has been proposed as an easy-option replacement for chest X-ray (CXR) in emergency diagnosis of pneumonia, pleural effusion, and pneumothorax. We investigated CXR unforeseen diagnosis, subsequently investigated by TUS, considering its usefulness in clinical risk assessment and management and also assessing the sustainability of telementoring. Patients and methods This observational report includes a period of 6 months with proactive concurrent adjunctive TUS diagnosis telementoring, which was done using freely available smartphone applications for transfer of images and movies. Results Three hundred and seventy emergency TUS scans (excluding trauma patients) were performed and telementored. In 310 cases, no significant chest pathology was detected either by CXR, TUS, or the subsequent work-up; in 24 patients, there was full concordance between TUS and CXR (ten isolated pleural effusion; eleven pleural effusion with lung consolidations; and three lung consolidation without pleural effusion); in ten patients with lung consolidations, abnormalities identified by CXR were not detected by TUS. In 26 patients, only TUS diagnosis criteria of disease were present: in 19 patients, CXR was not diagnostic, ie, substantially negative, but TUS detected these conditions correctly, and these were later confirmed by computed tomography (CT). In seven patients, even if chest disease was identified by CXR, such diagnoses were significantly modified by ultrasound, and CT confirmed that TUS was more appropriate. The overall respective individual performances of CXR and TUS for the diagnosis of a pleural–pulmonary disease in emergency are good, with accuracy >95%. Conclusion About 20% of pneumonia cases were detectable only by CXR and 20% only by TUS and not by CXR; ie, about 40% of patients may have been misdiagnosed if, by chance, only one of the two tools had been used. The concurrent use of TUS and CXR increases the overall sensitivity and
Bouaakkaz, Brahim; El Abidine El Morjani, Zine; Bouchaou, Lhoussaine; Elhimri, Hamza
Flooding is the most devasting natural hazards that causes more damage throughout the world. In 2016, for the fourth year in a row, it was the most costly natural disaster, in terms of global economic losses: 62 billion, according to a Benfield's 2016 annual report on climate and natural disasters . The semi-arid to arid Souss watershed is vulnerable to floods, whose the intensity is becoming increasingly alarming and this area does not escape to the effects of this extreme event.. Indeed, the susceptibility of this region to this type of hazard is accentuated by its rapid evolution in terms of demography, uncontrolled land use, anthropogenic actions (uncontrolled urbanization, encroachment of the hydraulic public domain, overgrazing, clearing and deforestation).), and physical behavior of the environment (higher slope, impermeable rock