Source Parameters and Rupture Directivities of Earthquakes Within the Mendocino Triple Junction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, A. A.; Chen, X.

2017-12-01

The Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ), a region in the Cascadia subduction zone, produces a sizable amount of earthquakes each year. Direct observations of the rupture properties are difficult to achieve due to the small magnitudes of most of these earthquakes and lack of offshore observations. The Cascadia Initiative (CI) project provides opportunities to look at the earthquakes in detail. Here we look at the transform plate boundary fault located in the MTJ, and measure source parameters of Mw≥4 earthquakes from both time-domain deconvolution and spectral analysis using empirical Green's function (EGF) method. The second-moment method is used to infer rupture length, width, and rupture velocity from apparent source duration measured at different stations. Brune's source model is used to infer corner frequency and spectral complexity for stacked spectral ratio. EGFs are selected based on their location relative to the mainshock, as well as the magnitude difference compared to the mainshock. For the transform fault, we first look at the largest earthquake recorded during the Year 4 CI array, a Mw5.72 event that occurred in January of 2015, and select two EGFs, a Mw1.75 and a Mw1.73 located within 5 km of the mainshock. This earthquake is characterized with at least two sub-events, with total duration of about 0.3 second and rupture length of about 2.78 km. The earthquake is rupturing towards west along the transform fault, and both source durations and corner frequencies show strong azimuthal variations, with anti-correlation between duration and corner frequency. The stacked spectral ratio from multiple stations with the Mw1.73 EGF event shows deviation from pure Brune's source model following the definition from Uchide and Imanishi [2016], likely due to near-field recordings with rupture complexity. We will further analyze this earthquake using more EGF events to test the reliability and stability of the results, and further analyze three other Mw≥4 earthquakes within the array.

Source Model of Huge Subduction Earthquakes for Strong Ground Motion Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwata, T.; Asano, K.

2012-12-01

It is a quite important issue for strong ground motion prediction to construct the source model of huge subduction earthquakes. Irikura and Miyake (2001, 2011) proposed the characterized source model for strong ground motion prediction, which consists of plural strong ground motion generation area (SMGA, Miyake et al., 2003) patches on the source fault. We obtained the SMGA source models for many events using the empirical Green's function method and found the SMGA size has an empirical scaling relationship with seismic moment. Therefore, the SMGA size can be assumed from that empirical relation under giving the seismic moment for anticipated earthquakes. Concerning to the setting of the SMGAs position, the information of the fault segment is useful for inland crustal earthquakes. For the 1995 Kobe earthquake, three SMGA patches are obtained and each Nojima, Suma, and Suwayama segment respectively has one SMGA from the SMGA modeling (e.g. Kamae and Irikura, 1998). For the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, Asano and Iwata (2012) estimated the SMGA source model and obtained four SMGA patches on the source fault. Total SMGA area follows the extension of the empirical scaling relationship between the seismic moment and the SMGA area for subduction plate-boundary earthquakes, and it shows the applicability of the empirical scaling relationship for the SMGA. The positions of two SMGAs are in Miyagi-Oki segment and those other two SMGAs are in Fukushima-Oki and Ibaraki-Oki segments, respectively. Asano and Iwata (2012) also pointed out that all SMGAs are corresponding to the historical source areas of 1930's. Those SMGAs do not overlap the huge slip area in the shallower part of the source fault which estimated by teleseismic data, long-period strong motion data, and/or geodetic data during the 2011 mainshock. This fact shows the huge slip area does not contribute to strong ground motion generation (10-0.1s). The information of the fault segment in the subduction zone, or historical earthquake source area is also applicable for the construction of SMGA settings for strong ground motion prediction for future earthquakes.

Inducing in situ, nonlinear soil response applying an active source

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, P.A.; Bodin, P.; Gomberg, J.; Pearce, F.; Lawrence, Z.; Menq, F.-Y.

2009-01-01

[1] It is well known that soil sites have a profound effect on ground motion during large earthquakes. The complex structure of soil deposits and the highly nonlinear constitutive behavior of soils largely control nonlinear site response at soil sites. Measurements of nonlinear soil response under natural conditions are critical to advancing our understanding of soil behavior during earthquakes. Many factors limit the use of earthquake observations to estimate nonlinear site response such that quantitative characterization of nonlinear behavior relies almost exclusively on laboratory experiments and modeling of wave propagation. Here we introduce a new method for in situ characterization of the nonlinear behavior of a natural soil formation using measurements obtained immediately adjacent to a large vibrator source. To our knowledge, we are the first group to propose and test such an approach. Employing a large, surface vibrator as a source, we measure the nonlinear behavior of the soil by incrementally increasing the source amplitude over a range of frequencies and monitoring changes in the output spectra. We apply a homodyne algorithm for measuring spectral amplitudes, which provides robust signal-to-noise ratios at the frequencies of interest. Spectral ratios are computed between the receivers and the source as well as receiver pairs located in an array adjacent to the source, providing the means to separate source and near-source nonlinearity from pervasive nonlinearity in the soil column. We find clear evidence of nonlinearity in significant decreases in the frequency of peak spectral ratios, corresponding to material softening with amplitude, observed across the array as the source amplitude is increased. The observed peak shifts are consistent with laboratory measurements of soil nonlinearity. Our results provide constraints for future numerical modeling studies of strong ground motion during earthquakes.

Seismic source characterization for the 2014 update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moschetti, Morgan P.; Powers, Peter; Petersen, Mark D.; Boyd, Oliver; Chen, Rui; Field, Edward H.; Frankel, Arthur; Haller, Kathleen; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles S.; Wheeler, Russell; Zeng, Yuehua

2015-01-01

We present the updated seismic source characterization (SSC) for the 2014 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States. Construction of the seismic source models employs the methodology that was developed for the 1996 NSHM but includes new and updated data, data types, source models, and source parameters that reflect the current state of knowledge of earthquake occurrence and state of practice for seismic hazard analyses. We review the SSC parameterization and describe the methods used to estimate earthquake rates, magnitudes, locations, and geometries for all seismic source models, with an emphasis on new source model components. We highlight the effects that two new model components—incorporation of slip rates from combined geodetic-geologic inversions and the incorporation of adaptively smoothed seismicity models—have on probabilistic ground motions, because these sources span multiple regions of the conterminous United States and provide important additional epistemic uncertainty for the 2014 NSHM.

Applicability of source scaling relations for crustal earthquakes to estimation of the ground motions of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irikura, Kojiro; Miyakoshi, Ken; Kamae, Katsuhiro; Yoshida, Kunikazu; Somei, Kazuhiro; Kurahashi, Susumu; Miyake, Hiroe

2017-01-01

A two-stage scaling relationship of the source parameters for crustal earthquakes in Japan has previously been constructed, in which source parameters obtained from the results of waveform inversion of strong motion data are combined with parameters estimated based on geological and geomorphological surveys. A three-stage scaling relationship was subsequently developed to extend scaling to crustal earthquakes with magnitudes greater than M w 7.4. The effectiveness of these scaling relationships was then examined based on the results of waveform inversion of 18 recent crustal earthquakes ( M w 5.4-6.9) that occurred in Japan since the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake. The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, with M w 7.0, was one of the largest earthquakes to occur since dense and accurate strong motion observation networks, such as K-NET and KiK-net, were deployed after the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake. We examined the applicability of the scaling relationships of the source parameters of crustal earthquakes in Japan to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake. The rupture area and asperity area were determined based on slip distributions obtained from waveform inversion of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake observations. We found that the relationship between the rupture area and the seismic moment for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake follows the second-stage scaling within one standard deviation ( σ = 0.14). The ratio of the asperity area to the rupture area for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake is nearly the same as ratios previously obtained for crustal earthquakes. Furthermore, we simulated the ground motions of this earthquake using a characterized source model consisting of strong motion generation areas (SMGAs) based on the empirical Green's function (EGF) method. The locations and areas of the SMGAs were determined through comparison between the synthetic ground motions and observed motions. The sizes of the SMGAs were nearly coincident with the asperities with large slip. The synthetic ground motions obtained using the EGF method agree well with the observed motions in terms of acceleration, velocity, and displacement within the frequency range of 0.3-10 Hz. These findings indicate that the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake is a standard event that follows the scaling relationship of crustal earthquakes in Japan.

Rapid characterization of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake sequence and its seismotectonic context

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayes, Gavin; Briggs, Richard; Barnhart, William D.; Yeck, William; McNamara, Daniel E.; Wald, David J.; Nealy, Jennifer; Benz, Harley M.; Gold, Ryan D.; Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Marano, Kristin; Earle, Paul S.; Hearne, Mike; Smoczyk, Gregory M.; Wald, Lisa A.; Samsonov, Sergey

2015-01-01

Earthquake response and related information products are important for placing recent seismic events into context and particularly for understanding the impact earthquakes can have on the regional community and its infrastructure. These tools are even more useful if they are available quickly, ahead of detailed information from the areas affected by such earthquakes. Here we provide an overview of the response activities and related information products generated and provided by the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center in association with the 2015 M 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake. This group monitors global earthquakes 24  hrs/day and 7  days/week to provide rapid information on the location and size of recent events and to characterize the source properties, tectonic setting, and potential fatalities and economic losses associated with significant earthquakes. We present the timeline over which these products became available, discuss what they tell us about the seismotectonics of the Gorkha earthquake and its aftershocks, and examine how their information is used today, and might be used in the future, to help mitigate the impact of such natural disasters.

Contribution of Satellite Gravimetry to Understanding Seismic Source Processes of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Han, Shin-Chan; Sauber, Jeanne; Riva, Riccardo

2011-01-01

The 2011 great Tohoku-Oki earthquake, apart from shaking the ground, perturbed the motions of satellites orbiting some hundreds km away above the ground, such as GRACE, due to coseismic change in the gravity field. Significant changes in inter-satellite distance were observed after the earthquake. These unconventional satellite measurements were inverted to examine the earthquake source processes from a radically different perspective that complements the analyses of seismic and geodetic ground recordings. We found the average slip located up-dip of the hypocenter but within the lower crust, as characterized by a limited range of bulk and shear moduli. The GRACE data constrained a group of earthquake source parameters that yield increasing dip (7-16 degrees plus or minus 2 degrees) and, simultaneously, decreasing moment magnitude (9.17-9.02 plus or minus 0.04) with increasing source depth (15-24 kilometers). The GRACE solution includes the cumulative moment released over a month and demonstrates a unique view of the long-wavelength gravimetric response to all mass redistribution processes associated with the dynamic rupture and short-term postseismic mechanisms to improve our understanding of the physics of megathrusts.

Source Model of the MJMA 6.5 Plate-Boundary Earthquake at the Nankai Trough, Southwest Japan, on April 1, 2016, Based on Strong Motion Waveform Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asano, K.

2017-12-01

An MJMA 6.5 earthquake occurred offshore the Kii peninsula, southwest Japan on April 1, 2016. This event was interpreted as a thrust-event on the plate-boundary along the Nankai trough where (Wallace et al., 2016). This event is the largest plate-boundary earthquake in the source region of the 1944 Tonankai earthquake (MW 8.0) after that event. The significant point of this event regarding to seismic observation is that this event occurred beneath an ocean-bottom seismic network called DONET1, which is jointly operated by NIED and JAMSTEC. Since moderate-to-large earthquake of this focal type is very rare in this region in the last half century, it is a good opportunity to investigate the source characteristics relating to strong motion generation of subduction-zone plate-boundary earthquakes along the Nankai trough. Knowledge obtained from the study of this earthquake would contribute to ground motion prediction and seismic hazard assessment for future megathrust earthquakes expected in the Nankai trough. In this study, the source model of the 2016 offshore the Kii peninsula earthquake was estimated by broadband strong motion waveform modeling using the empirical Green's function method (Irikura, 1986). The source model is characterized by strong motion generation area (SMGA) (Miyake et al., 2003), which is defined as a rectangular area with high-stress drop or high slip-velocity. SMGA source model based on the empirical Green's function method has great potential to reproduce ground motion time history in broadband frequency range. We used strong motion data from offshore stations (DONET1 and LTBMS) and onshore stations (NIED F-net and DPRI). The records of an MJMA 3.2 aftershock at 13:04 on April 1, 2016 were selected for the empirical Green's functions. The source parameters of SMGA are optimized by the waveform modeling in the frequency range 0.4-10 Hz. The best estimate of SMGA size is 19.4 km2, and SMGA of this event does not follow the source scaling relationship for past plate-boundary earthquakes along the Japan trench, northeast Japan. This finding implies that the source characteristics of plate-boundary events in the Nankai trough are different from those in the Japan Trench, and it could be important information to consider regional variation in ground motion prediction.

Numerical Simulation of Strong Ground Motion at Mexico City:A Hybrid Approach for Efficient Evaluation of Site Amplification and Path Effects for Different Types of Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cruz, H.; Furumura, T.; Chavez-Garcia, F. J.

2002-12-01

The estimation of scenarios of the strong ground motions caused by future great earthquakes is an important problem in strong motion seismology. This was pointed out by the great 1985 Michoacan earthquake, which caused a great damage in Mexico City, 300 km away from the epicenter. Since the seismic wavefield is characterized by the source, path and site effects, the pattern of strong motion damage from different types of earthquakes should differ significantly. In this study, the scenarios for intermediate-depth normal-faulting, shallow-interplate thrust faulting, and crustal earthquakes have been estimated using a hybrid simulation technique. The character of the seismic wavefield propagating from the source to Mexico City for each earthquake was first calculated using the pseudospectral method for 2D SH waves. The site amplifications in the shallow structure of Mexico City are then calculated using the multiple SH wave reverberation theory. The scenarios of maximum ground motion for both inslab and interplate earthquakes obtained by the simulation show a good agreement with the observations. This indicates the effectiveness of the hybrid simulation approach to investigate the strong motion damage for future earthquakes.

A probabilistic approach for the estimation of earthquake source parameters from spectral inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Supino, M.; Festa, G.; Zollo, A.

2017-12-01

The amplitude spectrum of a seismic signal related to an earthquake source carries information about the size of the rupture, moment, stress and energy release. Furthermore, it can be used to characterize the Green's function of the medium crossed by the seismic waves. We describe the earthquake amplitude spectrum assuming a generalized Brune's (1970) source model, and direct P- and S-waves propagating in a layered velocity model, characterized by a frequency-independent Q attenuation factor. The observed displacement spectrum depends indeed on three source parameters, the seismic moment (through the low-frequency spectral level), the corner frequency (that is a proxy of the fault length) and the high-frequency decay parameter. These parameters are strongly correlated each other and with the quality factor Q; a rigorous estimation of the associated uncertainties and parameter resolution is thus needed to obtain reliable estimations.In this work, the uncertainties are characterized adopting a probabilistic approach for the parameter estimation. Assuming an L2-norm based misfit function, we perform a global exploration of the parameter space to find the absolute minimum of the cost function and then we explore the cost-function associated joint a-posteriori probability density function around such a minimum, to extract the correlation matrix of the parameters. The global exploration relies on building a Markov chain in the parameter space and on combining a deterministic minimization with a random exploration of the space (basin-hopping technique). The joint pdf is built from the misfit function using the maximum likelihood principle and assuming a Gaussian-like distribution of the parameters. It is then computed on a grid centered at the global minimum of the cost-function. The numerical integration of the pdf finally provides mean, variance and correlation matrix associated with the set of best-fit parameters describing the model. Synthetic tests are performed to investigate the robustness of the method and uncertainty propagation from the data-space to the parameter space. Finally, the method is applied to characterize the source parameters of the earthquakes occurring during the 2016-2017 Central Italy sequence, with the goal of investigating the source parameter scaling with magnitude.

Seismicity in the source areas of the 1896 and 1933 Sanriku earthquakes and implications for large near-trench earthquake faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obana, Koichiro; Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Fujie, Gou; Kodaira, Shuichi; Kaiho, Yuka; Yamamoto, Yojiro; Miura, Seiichi

2018-03-01

In the northern part of the Japan Trench, the 1933 Showa-Sanriku earthquake (Mw 8.4), an outer-trench, normal-faulting earthquake, occurred 37 yr after the 1896 Meiji-Sanriku tsunami earthquake (Mw 8.0), a shallow, near-trench, plate-interface rupture. Tsunamis generated by both earthquakes caused severe damage along the Sanriku coast. Precise locations of earthquakes in the source areas of the 1896 and 1933 earthquakes have not previously been obtained because they occurred at considerable distances from the coast in deep water beyond the maximum operational depth of conventional ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs). In 2015, we incorporated OBSs designed for operation in deep water (ultradeep OBSs) in an OBS array during two months of seismic observations in the source areas of the 1896 and 1933 Sanriku earthquakes to investigate the relationship of seismicity there to outer-rise normal-faulting earthquakes and near-trench tsunami earthquakes. Our analysis showed that seismicity during our observation period occurred along three roughly linear trench-parallel trends in the outer-trench region. Seismic activity along these trends likely corresponds to aftershocks of the 1933 Showa-Sanriku earthquake and the Mw 7.4 normal-faulting earthquake that occurred 40 min after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Furthermore, changes of the clarity of reflections from the oceanic Moho on seismic reflection profiles and low-velocity anomalies within the oceanic mantle were observed near the linear trends of the seismicity. The focal mechanisms we determined indicate that an extensional stress regime extends to about 40 km depth, below which the stress regime is compressional. These observations suggest that rupture during the 1933 Showa-Sanriku earthquake did not extend to the base of the oceanic lithosphere and that compound rupture of multiple or segmented faults is a more plausible explanation for that earthquake. The source area of the 1896 Meiji-Sanriku tsunami earthquake is characterized by an aseismic region landward of the trench axis. Spatial heterogeneity of seismicity and crustal structure might indicate the near-trench faults that could lead to future hazardous events such as the 1896 and 1933 Sanriku earthquakes, and should be taken into account in assessment of tsunami hazards related to large near-trench earthquakes.

Source spectral properties of small-to-moderate earthquakes in southern Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Trugman, Daniel T.; Dougherty, Sara L.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Shearer, Peter M.

2017-01-01

The source spectral properties of injection-induced earthquakes give insight into their nucleation, rupture processes, and influence on ground motion. Here we apply a spectral decomposition approach to analyze P-wave spectra and estimate Brune-type stress drop for more than 2000 ML1.5–5.2 earthquakes occurring in southern Kansas from 2014 to 2016. We find that these earthquakes are characterized by low stress drop values (median ∼0.4MPa) compared to natural seismicity in California. We observe a significant increase in stress drop as a function of depth, but the shallow depth distribution of these events is not by itself sufficient to explain their lower stress drop. Stress drop increases with magnitude from M1.5–M3.5, but this scaling trend may weaken above M4 and also depends on the assumed source model. Although we observe a nonstationary, sequence-specific temporal evolution in stress drop, we find no clear systematic relation with the activity of nearby injection wells.

Deviant Earthquakes: Data-driven Constraints on the Variability in Earthquake Source Properties and Seismic Hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trugman, Daniel Taylor

The complexity of the earthquake rupture process makes earthquakes inherently unpredictable. Seismic hazard forecasts often presume that the rate of earthquake occurrence can be adequately modeled as a space-time homogenenous or stationary Poisson process and that the relation between the dynamical source properties of small and large earthquakes obey self-similar scaling relations. While these simplified models provide useful approximations and encapsulate the first-order statistical features of the historical seismic record, they are inconsistent with the complexity underlying earthquake occurrence and can lead to misleading assessments of seismic hazard when applied in practice. The six principle chapters of this thesis explore the extent to which the behavior of real earthquakes deviates from these simplified models, and the implications that the observed deviations have for our understanding of earthquake rupture processes and seismic hazard. Chapter 1 provides a brief thematic overview and introduction to the scope of this thesis. Chapter 2 examines the complexity of the 2010 M7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake, focusing on the relation between its unexpected and unprecedented occurrence and anthropogenic stresses from the nearby Cerro Prieto Geothermal Field. Chapter 3 compares long-term changes in seismicity within California's three largest geothermal fields in an effort to characterize the relative influence of natural and anthropogenic stress transients on local seismic hazard. Chapter 4 describes a hybrid, hierarchical clustering algorithm that can be used to relocate earthquakes using waveform cross-correlation, and applies the new algorithm to study the spatiotemporal evolution of two recent seismic swarms in western Nevada. Chapter 5 describes a new spectral decomposition technique that can be used to analyze the dynamic source properties of large datasets of earthquakes, and applies this approach to revisit the question of self-similar scaling of southern California seismicity. Chapter 6 builds upon these results and applies the same spectral decomposition technique to examine the source properties of several thousand recent earthquakes in southern Kansas that are likely human-induced by massive oil and gas operations in the region. Chapter 7 studies the connection between source spectral properties and earthquake hazard, focusing on spatial variations in dynamic stress drop and its influence on ground motion amplitudes. Finally, Chapter 8 provides a summary of the key findings of and relations between these studies, and outlines potential avenues of future research.

Transform fault earthquakes in the North Atlantic: Source mechanisms and depth of faulting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bergman, Eric A.; Solomon, Sean C.

1987-01-01

The centroid depths and source mechanisms of 12 large earthquakes on transform faults of the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge were determined from an inversion of long-period body waveforms. The earthquakes occurred on the Gibbs, Oceanographer, Hayes, Kane, 15 deg 20 min, and Vema transforms. The depth extent of faulting during each earthquake was estimated from the centroid depth and the fault width. The source mechanisms for all events in this study display the strike slip motion expected for transform fault earthquakes; slip vector azimuths agree to 2 to 3 deg of the local strike of the zone of active faulting. The only anomalies in mechanism were for two earthquakes near the western end of the Vema transform which occurred on significantly nonvertical fault planes. Secondary faulting, occurring either precursory to or near the end of the main episode of strike-slip rupture, was observed for 5 of the 12 earthquakes. For three events the secondary faulting was characterized by reverse motion on fault planes striking oblique to the trend of the transform. In all three cases, the site of secondary reverse faulting is near a compression jog in the current trace of the active transform fault zone. No evidence was found to support the conclusions of Engeln, Wiens, and Stein that oceanic transform faults in general are either hotter than expected from current thermal models or weaker than normal oceanic lithosphere.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments of Sabah, east Malaysia: accounting for local earthquake activity near Ranau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalil, Amin E.; Abir, Ismail A.; Ginsos, Hanteh; Abdel Hafiez, Hesham E.; Khan, Sohail

2018-02-01

Sabah state in eastern Malaysia, unlike most of the other Malaysian states, is characterized by common seismological activity; generally an earthquake of moderate magnitude is experienced at an interval of roughly every 20 years, originating mainly from two major sources, either a local source (e.g. Ranau and Lahad Dato) or a regional source (e.g. Kalimantan and South Philippines subductions). The seismicity map of Sabah shows the presence of two zones of distinctive seismicity, these zones are near Ranau (near Kota Kinabalu) and Lahad Datu in the southeast of Sabah. The seismicity record of Ranau begins in 1991, according to the international seismicity bulletins (e.g. United States Geological Survey and the International Seismological Center), and this short record is not sufficient for seismic source characterization. Fortunately, active Quaternary fault systems are delineated in the area. Henceforth, the seismicity of the area is thus determined as line sources referring to these faults. Two main fault systems are believed to be the source of such activities; namely, the Mensaban fault zone and the Crocker fault zone in addition to some other faults in their vicinity. Seismic hazard assessments became a very important and needed study for the extensive developing projects in Sabah especially with the presence of earthquake activities. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments are adopted for the present work since it can provide the probability of various ground motion levels during expected from future large earthquakes. The output results are presented in terms of spectral acceleration curves and uniform hazard curves for periods of 500, 1000 and 2500 years. Since this is the first time that a complete hazard study has been done for the area, the output will be a base and standard for any future strategic plans in the area.

Source Complexity of an Injection Induced Event: The 2016 Mw 5.1 Fairview, Oklahoma Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-Comino, J. A.; Cesca, S.

2018-05-01

Complex rupture processes are occasionally resolved for weak earthquakes and can reveal a dominant direction of the rupture propagation and the presence and geometry of main slip patches. Finding and characterizing such properties could be important for understanding the nucleation and growth of induced earthquakes. One of the largest earthquakes linked to wastewater injection, the 2016 Mw 5.1 Fairview, Oklahoma earthquake, is analyzed using empirical Green's function techniques to reveal its source complexity. Two subevents are clearly identified and located using a new approach based on relative hypocenter-centroid location. The first subevent has a magnitude of Mw 5.0 and shows the main rupture propagated toward the NE, in the direction of higher pore pressure perturbations due to wastewater injection. The second subevent appears as an early aftershock with lower magnitude, Mw 4.7. It is located SW of the mainshock in a region of increased Coulomb stress, where most aftershocks relocated.

A Search for Characteristic Seismic Energy Radiation Patterns to Identify Possible Fast-Rupturing Activity Associated with Tsunamigenic and Other Earthquakes Around the Solomon Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barama, L.; Newman, A. V.; Convers, J.

2016-12-01

The Solomon Islands are heavily affected by frequent and destructive tsunamigenic earthquakes. Many of these earthquakes have rupture very near the trench, a feature normally associated with slow-source "tsunami earthquakes" as defined by Kanamori [Kanamori, PEPI 1972]. However, prior evaluation of energetic behavior of some recent larger tsunamigenic earthquakes have revealed little evidence for such a slow nature [Convers and Newman, JGR 2011; Newman et al., GJI 2011]. In this study, we evaluate all regional earthquakes surrounding the Solomon Islands with moment magnitude greater than 5.5 since 1976. We will use a newly developed methodology for more robustly characterizing the rupture duration along with seismic energy radiation from teleseismically located broad-band seismic stations, called the Time-Averaged Cumulative Energy Rate (TACER) [Convers and Newman, GRL 2013], for evaluating the slow-source nature. This methodology uniquely identifies the slow-rupture often associated with tsunami earthquakes due to the contrasting nature of the up-to order-of-magnitude negative deviation in energy and up-to three-fold excess in rupture duration in such events for a particular seismic moment [Newman et al., GRL 2011]. A ubiquitous slow-nature in this region would be surprising due to the spatial variance of the subducting features, and lack of any known slow-source tsunami earthquakes in the past century. It is more likely this region is not solely characterized by such slow-nature events, but instead have rupture energies comparable to what we see for events elsewhere and occuring in deeper segments of the megathrust interface. The most recent tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Solomon islands include the 2007 April 1, MW 8.1, 2010 January 3, MW 7.1 and 2013 February 6, MW 7.9 events, that display higher radiated seismic energies and shorter rupture durations than expected in recognized tsunami earthquakes that are observed at higher magnitudes (MW >7.5) elsewhere [Convers and Newman, 2011]. It is possible that characteristics of the Solomon Islands subduction zone produce near-trench earthquakes that are energetic, with shorter rupture duration times, like observed elsewhere but deeper, however are highly tsunamigenic because of large slip and deep-water excitation that occurs near the trench.

Modeling fast and slow earthquakes at various scales

PubMed Central

IDE, Satoshi

2014-01-01

Earthquake sources represent dynamic rupture within rocky materials at depth and often can be modeled as propagating shear slip controlled by friction laws. These laws provide boundary conditions on fault planes embedded in elastic media. Recent developments in observation networks, laboratory experiments, and methods of data analysis have expanded our knowledge of the physics of earthquakes. Newly discovered slow earthquakes are qualitatively different phenomena from ordinary fast earthquakes and provide independent information on slow deformation at depth. Many numerical simulations have been carried out to model both fast and slow earthquakes, but problems remain, especially with scaling laws. Some mechanisms are required to explain the power-law nature of earthquake rupture and the lack of characteristic length. Conceptual models that include a hierarchical structure over a wide range of scales would be helpful for characterizing diverse behavior in different seismic regions and for improving probabilistic forecasts of earthquakes. PMID:25311138

Modeling fast and slow earthquakes at various scales.

PubMed

Ide, Satoshi

2014-01-01

Earthquake sources represent dynamic rupture within rocky materials at depth and often can be modeled as propagating shear slip controlled by friction laws. These laws provide boundary conditions on fault planes embedded in elastic media. Recent developments in observation networks, laboratory experiments, and methods of data analysis have expanded our knowledge of the physics of earthquakes. Newly discovered slow earthquakes are qualitatively different phenomena from ordinary fast earthquakes and provide independent information on slow deformation at depth. Many numerical simulations have been carried out to model both fast and slow earthquakes, but problems remain, especially with scaling laws. Some mechanisms are required to explain the power-law nature of earthquake rupture and the lack of characteristic length. Conceptual models that include a hierarchical structure over a wide range of scales would be helpful for characterizing diverse behavior in different seismic regions and for improving probabilistic forecasts of earthquakes.

The 2014, MW6.9 North Aegean earthquake: seismic and geodetic evidence for coseismic slip on persistent asperities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konca, Ali Ozgun; Cetin, Seda; Karabulut, Hayrullah; Reilinger, Robert; Dogan, Ugur; Ergintav, Semih; Cakir, Ziyadin; Tari, Ergin

2018-05-01

We report that asperities with the highest coseismic slip in the 2014 MW6.9 North Aegean earthquake persisted through the interseismic, coseismic and immediate post-seismic periods. We use GPS and seismic data to obtain the source model of the 2014 earthquake, which is located on the western extension of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF). The earthquake ruptured a bilateral, 90 km strike-slip fault with three slip patches: one asperity located west of the hypocentre and two to the east with a rupture duration of 40 s. Relocated pre-earthquake seismicity and aftershocks show that zones with significant coseismic slip were relatively quiet during both the 7 yr of interseismic and the 3-month aftershock periods, while the surrounding regions generated significant seismicity during both the interseismic and post-seismic periods. We interpret the unusually long fault length and source duration, and distribution of pre- and post-main-shock seismicity as evidence for a rupture of asperities that persisted through strain accumulation and coseismic strain release in a partially coupled fault zone. We further suggest that the association of seismicity with fault creep may characterize the adjacent Izmit, Marmara Sea and Saros segments of the NAF. Similar behaviour has been reported for sections of the San Andreas Fault, and some large subduction zones, suggesting that the association of seismicity with creeping fault segments and rapid relocking of asperities may characterize many large earthquake faults.

Investigating environmental tectonics in Northern Alpine Foreland of Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ENTEC Working Group; Cloetingh, Sierd; Ziegler, Peter; Cornu, Tristan

Until now, research on neotectonics and related seismicity has mostly focused on active plate boundaries characterized by a generally high level of earthquake activity. Current seismic hazard estimates for intraplate areas are commonly based on probabilistic analyses of historical and instrumental earthquake data. The accuracy of these hazard estimates is limited by the nature of the data (e.g., ambiguous historical sources), and by the restriction of available earthquake catalogues to time scales of only a few hundred years. Both of these are geologically insignificant and unsuitable for describing tectonic processes causing earthquakes. This is especially relevant to intraplate regions, where faults show low slip rates resulting in long average recurrence times for large earthquakes (103 to 106 yrs), such as the devastating Basel earthquake of 1356, with an estimated magnitude of 6.5.

Multifractal Fluctuations of Jiuzhaigou Tourists Before and after Wenchuan Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Kai; Li, Wen-Yong; Liu, Chun-Qiong; Huang, Zheng-Wen

2013-03-01

In this work, multifractal methods have been successfully used to characterize the temporal fluctuations of daily Jiuzhai Valley domestic and foreign tourists before and after Wenchuan earthquake in China. We used multifractal detrending moving average method (MF-DMA). It showed that Jiuzhai Valley tourism markets are characterized by long-term memory and multifractal nature in. Moreover, the major sources of multifractality are studied. Based on the concept of sliding window, the time evolutions of the multifractal behavior of domestic and foreign tourists were analyzed and the influence of Wenchuan earthquake on Jiuzhai Valley tourism system dynamics were evaluated quantitatively. The study indicates that the inherent dynamical mechanism of Jiuzhai Valley tourism system has not been fundamentally changed from long views, although Jiuzhai Valley tourism system was seriously affected by the Wenchuan earthquake. Jiuzhai Valley tourism system has the ability to restore to its previous state in the short term.

Fault- and Area-Based PSHA in Nepal using OpenQuake: New Insights from the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha-Nepal Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Victoria

2017-04-01

The 2015 Gorkha-Nepal M7.8 earthquake (hereafter known simply as the Gorkha earthquake) highlights the seismic risk in Nepal, allows better characterization of the geometry of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), and enables comparison of recorded ground-motions with predicted ground-motions. These new data, together with recent paleoseismic studies and geodetic-based coupling models, allow for good parameterization of the fault characteristics. Other faults in Nepal remain less well studied. Unlike previous PSHA studies in Nepal that are exclusively area-based, we use a mix of faults and areas to describe six seismic sources in Nepal. For each source, the Gutenberg-Richter a and b values are found, and the maximum magnitude earthquake estimated, using a combination of earthquake catalogs, moment conservation principals and similarities to other tectonic regions. The MHT and Karakoram fault are described as fault sources, whereas four other sources - normal faulting in N-S trending grabens of northern Nepal, strike-slip faulting in both eastern and western Nepal, and background seismicity - are described as area sources. We use OpenQuake (http://openquake.org/) to carry out the analysis, and peak ground acceleration (PGA) at 2 and 10% chance in 50 years is found for Nepal, along with hazard curves at various locations. We compare this PSHA model with previous area-based models of Nepal. The Main Himalayan Thrust is the principal seismic hazard in Nepal so we study the effects of changing several parameters associated with this fault. We compare ground shaking predicted from various fault geometries suggested from the Gorkha earthquake with each other, and with a simple model of a flat fault. We also show the results from incorporating a coupling model based on geodetic data and microseismicity, which limits the down-dip extent of rupture. There have been no ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) developed specifically for Nepal, so we compare the results of standard GMPEs used together with an earthquake-scenario representing that of the Gorkha earthquake, with actual data from the Gorkha earthquake itself. The Gorkha earthquake also highlighted the importance of basin-, topographic- and directivity-effects, and the location of high-frequency sources, on influencing ground motion. Future study aims at incorporating the above, together with consideration of the fault-rupture history and its influence on the location and timing of future earthquakes.

75 FR 22868 - Withdrawal of Regulatory Guide

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-30

... Characterization of Seismic Sources and Determination of Safe Shutdown Earthquake Ground Motion.'' FOR FURTHER.... Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is withdrawing RG 1.165, ``Identification and Characterization of... alter the licensing basis of any currently operating reactor or any of the currently issued early site...

Earthquake source imaging by high-resolution array analysis at regional distances: the 2010 M7 Haiti earthquake as seen by the Venezuela National Seismic Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, L.; Ampuero, J. P.; Rendon, H.

2010-12-01

Back projection of teleseismic waves based on array processing has become a popular technique for earthquake source imaging,in particular to track the areas of the source that generate the strongest high frequency radiation. The technique has been previously applied to study the rupture process of the Sumatra earthquake and the supershear rupture of the Kunlun earthquakes. Here we attempt to image the Haiti earthquake using the data recorded by Venezuela National Seismic Network (VNSN). The network is composed of 22 broad-band stations with an East-West oriented geometry, and is located approximately 10 degrees away from Haiti in the perpendicular direction to the Enriquillo fault strike. This is the first opportunity to exploit the privileged position of the VNSN to study large earthquake ruptures in the Caribbean region. This is also a great opportunity to explore the back projection scheme of the crustal Pn phase at regional distances,which provides unique complementary insights to the teleseismic source inversions. The challenge in the analysis of the 2010 M7.0 Haiti earthquake is its very compact source region, possibly shorter than 30km, which is below the resolution limit of standard back projection techniques based on beamforming. Results of back projection analysis using the teleseismic USarray data reveal little details of the rupture process. To overcome the classical resolution limit we explored the Multiple Signal Classification method (MUSIC), a high-resolution array processing technique based on the signal-noise orthognality in the eigen space of the data covariance, which achieves both enhanced resolution and better ability to resolve closely spaced sources. We experiment with various synthetic earthquake scenarios to test the resolution. We find that MUSIC provides at least 3 times higher resolution than beamforming. We also study the inherent bias due to the interferences of coherent Green’s functions, which leads to a potential quantification of biased uncertainty of the back projection. Preliminary results from the Venezuela data set shows an East to West rupture propagation along the fault with sub-Rayleigh rupture speed, consistent with a compact source with two significant asperities which are confirmed by source time function obtained from Green’s function deconvolution and other source inversion results. These efforts could lead the Venezuela National Seismic Network to play a prominent role in the timely characterization of the rupture process of large earthquakes in the Caribbean, including the future ruptures along the yet unbroken segments of the Enriquillo fault system.

Ground motion models used in the 2014 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rezaeian, Sanaz; Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.

2015-01-01

The National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHMs) are an important component of seismic design regulations in the United States. This paper compares hazard using the new suite of ground motion models (GMMs) relative to hazard using the suite of GMMs applied in the previous version of the maps. The new source characterization models are used for both cases. A previous paper (Rezaeian et al. 2014) discussed the five NGA-West2 GMMs used for shallow crustal earthquakes in the Western United States (WUS), which are also summarized here. Our focus in this paper is on GMMs for earthquakes in stable continental regions in the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS), as well as subduction interface and deep intraslab earthquakes. We consider building code hazard levels for peak ground acceleration (PGA), 0.2-s, and 1.0-s spectral accelerations (SAs) on uniform firm-rock site conditions. The GMM modifications in the updated version of the maps created changes in hazard within 5% to 20% in WUS; decreases within 5% to 20% in CEUS; changes within 5% to 15% for subduction interface earthquakes; and changes involving decreases of up to 50% and increases of up to 30% for deep intraslab earthquakes for most U.S. sites. These modifications were combined with changes resulting from modifications in the source characterization models to obtain the new hazard maps.

Real-time Estimation of Fault Rupture Extent for Recent Large Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamada, M.; Mori, J. J.

2009-12-01

Current earthquake early warning systems assume point source models for the rupture. However, for large earthquakes, the fault rupture length can be of the order of tens to hundreds of kilometers, and the prediction of ground motion at a site requires the approximated knowledge of the rupture geometry. Early warning information based on a point source model may underestimate the ground motion at a site, if a station is close to the fault but distant from the epicenter. We developed an empirical function to classify seismic records into near-source (NS) or far-source (FS) records based on the past strong motion records (Yamada et al., 2007). Here, we defined the near-source region as an area with a fault rupture distance less than 10km. If we have ground motion records at a station, the probability that the station is located in the near-source region is; P = 1/(1+exp(-f)) f = 6.046log10(Za) + 7.885log10(Hv) - 27.091 where Za and Hv denote the peak values of the vertical acceleration and horizontal velocity, respectively. Each observation provides the probability that the station is located in near-source region, so the resolution of the proposed method depends on the station density. The information of the fault rupture location is a group of points where the stations are located. However, for practical purposes, the 2-dimensional configuration of the fault is required to compute the ground motion at a site. In this study, we extend the methodology of NS/FS classification to characterize 2-dimensional fault geometries and apply them to strong motion data observed in recent large earthquakes. We apply a cosine-shaped smoothing function to the probability distribution of near-source stations, and convert the point fault location to 2-dimensional fault information. The estimated rupture geometry for the 2007 Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki earthquake 10 seconds after the origin time is shown in Figure 1. Furthermore, we illustrate our method with strong motion data of the 2007 Noto-hanto earthquake, 2008 Iwate-Miyagi earthquake, and 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The on-going rupture extent can be estimated for all datasets as the rupture propagates. For earthquakes with magnitude about 7.0, the determination of the fault parameters converges to the final geometry within 10 seconds.

Rupture characteristics of the 2016 Meinong earthquake revealed by the back projection and directivity analysis of teleseismic broadband waveforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jian, Pei-Ru; Hung, Shu-Huei; Meng, Lingsen; Sun, Daoyuan

2017-04-01

The 2016 Mw 6.4 Meinong earthquake struck a previously unrecognized fault zone in midcrust beneath south Taiwan and inflicted heavy causalities in the populated Tainan City about 30 km northwest of the epicenter. Because of its relatively short rupture duration and P wave trains contaminated by large-amplitude depth phases and reverberations generated in the source region, accurate characterization of the rupture process and source properties for such a shallow strong earthquake remains challenging. Here we present a first high-resolution MUltiple SIgnal Classification back projection source image by using both P and depth-phase sP waves recorded at two large and dense arrays to understand the source behavior and consequent hazards of this peculiar catastrophic event. The results further corroborated by the directivity analysis indicate a unilateral rupture propagating northwestward and slightly downward on the shallow NE-dipping fault plane. The source radiation process is primarily characterized by one single peak, 7 s duration, with a total rupture length of 17 km and average rupture speed of 2.4 km/s. The rupture terminated immediately east of the prominent off-fault aftershock cluster about 20 km northwest of the hypocenter. Synergistic amplification of ground shaking by the directivity and strong excitation of sP and reverberations mainly caused the destruction concentrated in the area further to the northwest away from the rupture zone.

A New Simplified Source Model to Explain Strong Ground Motions from a Mega-Thrust Earthquake - Application to the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0) -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nozu, A.

2013-12-01

A new simplified source model is proposed to explain strong ground motions from a mega-thrust earthquake. The proposed model is simpler, and involves less model parameters, than the conventional characterized source model, which itself is a simplified expression of actual earthquake source. In the proposed model, the spacio-temporal distribution of slip within a subevent is not modeled. Instead, the source spectrum associated with the rupture of a subevent is modeled and it is assumed to follow the omega-square model. By multiplying the source spectrum with the path effect and the site amplification factor, the Fourier amplitude at a target site can be obtained. Then, combining it with Fourier phase characteristics of a smaller event, the time history of strong ground motions from the subevent can be calculated. Finally, by summing up contributions from the subevents, strong ground motions from the entire rupture can be obtained. The source model consists of six parameters for each subevent, namely, longitude, latitude, depth, rupture time, seismic moment and corner frequency of the subevent. Finite size of the subevent can be taken into account in the model, because the corner frequency of the subevent is included in the model, which is inversely proportional to the length of the subevent. Thus, the proposed model is referred to as the 'pseudo point-source model'. To examine the applicability of the model, a pseudo point-source model was developed for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The model comprises nine subevents, located off Miyagi Prefecture through Ibaraki Prefecture. The velocity waveforms (0.2-1 Hz), the velocity envelopes (0.2-10 Hz) and the Fourier spectra (0.2-10 Hz) at 15 sites calculated with the pseudo point-source model agree well with the observed ones, indicating the applicability of the model. Then the results were compared with the results of a super-asperity (SPGA) model of the same earthquake (Nozu, 2012, AGU), which can be considered as an example of characterized source models. Although the pseudo point-source model involves much less model parameters than the super-asperity model, the errors associated with the former model were comparable to those for the latter model for velocity waveforms and envelopes. Furthermore, the errors associated with the former model were much smaller than those for the latter model for Fourier spectra. These evidences indicate the usefulness of the pseudo point-source model. Comparison of the observed (black) and synthetic (red) Fourier spectra. The spectra are the composition of two horizontal components and smoothed with a Parzen window with a band width of 0.05 Hz.

2014 Update of the Pacific Northwest portion of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, Arthur; Chen, Rui; Petersen, Mark; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Sherrod, Brian

2015-01-01

Several aspects of the earthquake characterization were changed for the Pacific Northwest portion of the 2014 update of the national seismic hazard maps, reflecting recent scientific findings. New logic trees were developed for the recurrence parameters of M8-9 earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) and for the eastern edge of their rupture zones. These logic trees reflect recent findings of additional M8 CSZ earthquakes using offshore deposits of turbidity flows and onshore tsunami deposits and subsidence. These M8 earthquakes each rupture a portion of the CSZ and occur in the time periods between M9 earthquakes that have an average recurrence interval of about 500 years. The maximum magnitude was increased for deep intraslab earthquakes. An areal source zone to account for the possibility of deep earthquakes under western Oregon was expanded. The western portion of the Tacoma fault was added to the hazard maps.

Earthquake source properties of a shallow induced seismic sequence in SE Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agurto-Detzel, Hans; Bianchi, Marcelo; Prieto, Germán. A.; Assumpção, Marcelo

2017-04-01

We study source parameters of a cluster of 21 very shallow (<1 km depth) small-magnitude (Mw < 2) earthquakes induced by percolation of water by gravity in SE Brazil. Using a multiple empirical Green's functions (meGf) approach, we estimate seismic moments, corner frequencies, and static stress drops of these events by inversion of their spectral ratios. For the studied magnitude range (-0.3 < Mw < 1.9), we found an increase of stress drop with seismic moment. We assess associated uncertainties by considering different signal time windows and by performing a jackknife resampling of the spectral ratios. We also calculate seismic moments by full waveform inversion to independently validate our moments from spectral analysis. We propose repeated rupture on a fault patch at shallow depth, following continuous inflow of water, as the cause for the observed low absolute stress drop values (<1 MPa) and earthquake size dependency. To our knowledge, no other study on earthquake source properties of shallow events induced by water injection with no added pressure is available in the literature. Our study suggests that source parameter characterization may provide additional information of induced seismicity by hydraulic stimulation.

Characterizing the Seismic Ocean Bottom Environment of the Bransfield Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Washington, B.; Lekic, V.; Schmerr, N. C.

2017-12-01

Ocean bottom seismometers record ground motions that result from earthquakes, anthropogenic sound sources (e.g. propellers, air gun sources, etc.), ocean waves and currents, biological activity, as well as surface processes on the sea and coastal land. Over a two-week span in April, 2001 - the Austral late fall -ten stations arranged in eleven lines were deployed beneath the Bransfield Strait along the Antarctica Peninsula to passively record data before and after an active source seismic survey. The goal of this study is to understand ocean bottom seismicity, identify centers of seismic activity and characterize possible glaciological mechanisms of icequakes and tremors. The instruments were sampled at 200Hz, allowing signals of ice-quakes, small earthquakes, and other high frequency sources to be detected and located. By visualizing the data as spectrograms, we identify and document ground vibrations excited by local earthquakes, whale songs, and those potentially due to surface processes, such as the cracking and movement of icebergs or ice shelves, including possible harmonic tremors from the ice or the volcanic arc nearby. Using relative timing of P-wave arrivals, we locate the hypocenters of nearby earthquakes and icequakes, and present frequency-dependent polarization analysis of their waveforms. Marine mammal sounds were detected in a substantial part of the overall acoustic environment-late March and Early April are the best months to hear whales such as humpback, sperm and orca communicating amongst each other because they are drawn to the cold, nutrient-rich Antarctic waters. We detect whales communicating for several hours in the dataset. Other extensively recorded sources resemble harmonic tremors, and we also identify signals possibly associated with waves set up on the notoriously stormy seas.

Rapid estimate of earthquake source duration: application to tsunami warning.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reymond, Dominique; Jamelot, Anthony; Hyvernaud, Olivier

2016-04-01

We present a method for estimating the source duration of the fault rupture, based on the high-frequency envelop of teleseismic P-Waves, inspired from the original work of (Ni et al., 2005). The main interest of the knowledge of this seismic parameter is to detect abnormal low velocity ruptures that are the characteristic of the so called 'tsunami-earthquake' (Kanamori, 1972). The validation of the results of source duration estimated by this method are compared with two other independent methods : the estimated duration obtained by the Wphase inversion (Kanamori and Rivera, 2008, Duputel et al., 2012) and the duration calculated by the SCARDEC process that determines the source time function (M. Vallée et al., 2011). The estimated source duration is also confronted to the slowness discriminant defined by Newman and Okal, 1998), that is calculated routinely for all earthquakes detected by our tsunami warning process (named PDFM2, Preliminary Determination of Focal Mechanism, (Clément and Reymond, 2014)). Concerning the point of view of operational tsunami warning, the numerical simulations of tsunami are deeply dependent on the source estimation: better is the source estimation, better will be the tsunami forecast. The source duration is not directly injected in the numerical simulations of tsunami, because the cinematic of the source is presently totally ignored (Jamelot and Reymond, 2015). But in the case of a tsunami-earthquake that occurs in the shallower part of the subduction zone, we have to consider a source in a medium of low rigidity modulus; consequently, for a given seismic moment, the source dimensions will be decreased while the slip distribution increased, like a 'compact' source (Okal, Hébert, 2007). Inversely, a rapid 'snappy' earthquake that has a poor tsunami excitation power, will be characterized by higher rigidity modulus, and will produce weaker displacement and lesser source dimensions than 'normal' earthquake. References: CLément, J. and Reymond, D. (2014). New Tsunami Forecast Tools for the French Polynesia Tsunami Warning System. Pure Appl. Geophys, 171. DUPUTEL, Z., RIVERA, L., KANAMORI, H. and HAYES, G. (2012). Wphase source inversion for moderate to large earthquakes. Geophys. J. Intl.189, 1125-1147. Kanamori, H. (1972). Mechanism of tsunami earthquakes. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 6, 246-259. Kanamori, H. and Rivera, L. (2008). Source inversion of W phase : speeding up seismic tsunami warning. Geophys. J. Intl. 175, 222-238. Newman, A. and Okal, E. (1998). Teleseismic estimates of radiated seismic energy : The E=M0 discriminant for tsunami earthquakes. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 26885-26898. Ni, S., H. Kanamori, and D. Helmberger (2005), Energy radiation from the Sumatra earthquake, Nature, 434, 582. Okal, E.A., and H. Hébert (2007), Far-field modeling of the 1946 Aleutian tsunami, Geophys. J. Intl., 169, 1229-1238. Vallée, M., J. Charléty, A.M.G. Ferreira, B. Delouis, and J. Vergoz, SCARDEC : a new technique for the rapid determination of seismic moment magnitude, focal mechanism and source time functions for large earthquakes using body wave deconvolution, Geophys. J. Int., 184, 338-358, 2011.

Source Characterization of the 2015 Collapse in Gypsum Mine in Shandong, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, H.; Chu, R.; Sheng, M.

2016-12-01

Source parameters of mining earthquakes are essential to investigating pressure redistribution and accumulation due to underground excavation. On 25 December 2015, a local magnitude 4.0 earthquake occurred at 07:56:12 BJT in Pingyi County, China (latitude: 35.5°N, longitude: 117.7°E) with a depth of 0 km. This earthquake is caused by underground cave collapse. In this paper, we used sliding-window cross-correlation method to detect aftershocks of this event. The result indicates there are at least six aftershocks within ten minutes after the earthquake. Then we inverted focal mechanisms and depths of the mainshock and the largest aftershock with three-component broadband seismic waveform data recorded by the National Seismic Network. We use the generalized Cut-and-Paste (gCAP) method to obtain their moment tensors, which allows for a characterization of the relative amounts of deviatoric and isotropic source components. This gCAP method divides three component waveforms into Pnl and surface wave segments, and allows adjustable time shifts between observed and synthetic data, so that it reduces the influence of uncertainties in the 1-D velocity model. The results show that both events have similar focal mechanisms, which contains obvious non-double-couple component with a large proportion of isotropic source component. The mechanisms are dominated by 80% implosive isotropic energy and 20% thrusting double couple energy. Such mechanisms might be explained by an asymmetric collapse of the mine cavity due to unevenly distributed in situ stresses, sympathetic shear on a roof fault, or between the roof and floor of the mine.

Study on the evaluation method for fault displacement based on characterized source model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonagi, M.; Takahama, T.; Matsumoto, Y.; Inoue, N.; Irikura, K.; Dalguer, L. A.

2016-12-01

In IAEA Specific Safety Guide (SSG) 9 describes that probabilistic methods for evaluating fault displacement should be used if no sufficient basis is provided to decide conclusively that the fault is not capable by using the deterministic methodology. In addition, International Seismic Safety Centre compiles as ANNEX to realize seismic hazard for nuclear facilities described in SSG-9 and shows the utility of the deterministic and probabilistic evaluation methods for fault displacement. In Japan, it is required that important nuclear facilities should be established on ground where fault displacement will not arise when earthquakes occur in the future. Under these situations, based on requirements, we need develop evaluation methods for fault displacement to enhance safety in nuclear facilities. We are studying deterministic and probabilistic methods with tentative analyses using observed records such as surface fault displacement and near-fault strong ground motions of inland crustal earthquake which fault displacements arose. In this study, we introduce the concept of evaluation methods for fault displacement. After that, we show parts of tentative analysis results for deterministic method as follows: (1) For the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, referring slip distribution estimated by waveform inversion, we construct a characterized source model (Miyake et al., 2003, BSSA) which can explain observed near-fault broad band strong ground motions. (2) Referring a characterized source model constructed in (1), we study an evaluation method for surface fault displacement using hybrid method, which combines particle method and distinct element method. At last, we suggest one of the deterministic method to evaluate fault displacement based on characterized source model. This research was part of the 2015 research project `Development of evaluating method for fault displacement` by the Secretariat of Nuclear Regulation Authority (S/NRA), Japan.

Blind source deconvolution for deep Earth seismology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stefan, W.; Renaut, R.; Garnero, E. J.; Lay, T.

2007-12-01

We present an approach to automatically estimate an empirical source characterization of deep earthquakes recorded teleseismically and subsequently remove the source from the recordings by applying regularized deconvolution. A principle goal in this work is to effectively deblur the seismograms, resulting in more impulsive and narrower pulses, permitting better constraints in high resolution waveform analyses. Our method consists of two stages: (1) we first estimate the empirical source by automatically registering traces to their 1st principal component with a weighting scheme based on their deviation from this shape, we then use this shape as an estimation of the earthquake source. (2) We compare different deconvolution techniques to remove the source characteristic from the trace. In particular Total Variation (TV) regularized deconvolution is used which utilizes the fact that most natural signals have an underlying spareness in an appropriate basis, in this case, impulsive onsets of seismic arrivals. We show several examples of deep focus Fiji-Tonga region earthquakes for the phases S and ScS, comparing source responses for the separate phases. TV deconvolution is compared to the water level deconvolution, Tikenov deconvolution, and L1 norm deconvolution, for both data and synthetics. This approach significantly improves our ability to study subtle waveform features that are commonly masked by either noise or the earthquake source. Eliminating source complexities improves our ability to resolve deep mantle triplications, waveform complexities associated with possible double crossings of the post-perovskite phase transition, as well as increasing stability in waveform analyses used for deep mantle anisotropy measurements.

Source characterization and dynamic fault modeling of induced seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lui, S. K. Y.; Young, R. P.

2017-12-01

In recent years there are increasing concerns worldwide that industrial activities in the sub-surface can cause or trigger damaging earthquakes. In order to effectively mitigate the damaging effects of induced seismicity, the key is to better understand the source physics of induced earthquakes, which still remain elusive at present. Furthermore, an improved understanding of induced earthquake physics is pivotal to assess large-magnitude earthquake triggering. A better quantification of the possible causes of induced earthquakes can be achieved through numerical simulations. The fault model used in this study is governed by the empirically-derived rate-and-state friction laws, featuring a velocity-weakening (VW) patch embedded into a large velocity-strengthening (VS) region. Outside of that, the fault is slipping at the background loading rate. The model is fully dynamic, with all wave effects resolved, and is able to resolve spontaneous long-term slip history on a fault segment at all stages of seismic cycles. An earlier study using this model has established that aseismic slip plays a major role in the triggering of small repeating earthquakes. This study presents a series of cases with earthquakes occurring on faults with different fault frictional properties and fluid-induced stress perturbations. The effects to both the overall seismicity rate and fault slip behavior are investigated, and the causal relationship between the pre-slip pattern prior to the event and the induced source characteristics is discussed. Based on simulation results, the subsequent step is to select specific cases for laboratory experiments which allow well controlled variables and fault parameters. Ultimately, the aim is to provide better constraints on important parameters for induced earthquakes based on numerical modeling and laboratory data, and hence to contribute to a physics-based induced earthquake hazard assessment.

Low-frequency source parameters of twelve large earthquakes. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harabaglia, Paolo

1993-01-01

A global survey of the low-frequency (1-21 mHz) source characteristics of large events are studied. We are particularly interested in events unusually enriched in low-frequency and in events with a short-term precursor. We model the source time function of 12 large earthquakes using teleseismic data at low frequency. For each event we retrieve the source amplitude spectrum in the frequency range between 1 and 21 mHz with the Silver and Jordan method and the phase-shift spectrum in the frequency range between 1 and 11 mHz with the Riedesel and Jordan method. We then model the source time function by fitting the two spectra. Two of these events, the 1980 Irpinia, Italy, and the 1983 Akita-Oki, Japan, are shallow-depth complex events that took place on multiple faults. In both cases the source time function has a length of about 100 seconds. By comparison Westaway and Jackson find 45 seconds for the Irpinia event and Houston and Kanamori about 50 seconds for the Akita-Oki earthquake. The three deep events and four of the seven intermediate-depth events are fast rupturing earthquakes. A single pulse is sufficient to model the source spectra in the frequency range of our interest. Two other intermediate-depth events have slower rupturing processes, characterized by a continuous energy release lasting for about 40 seconds. The last event is the intermediate-depth 1983 Peru-Ecuador earthquake. It was first recognized as a precursive event by Jordan. We model it with a smooth rupturing process starting about 2 minutes before the high frequency origin time superimposed to an impulsive source.

Coseismic deformation observed with radar interferometry: Great earthquakes and atmospheric noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, Chelsea Phipps

Spatially dense maps of coseismic deformation derived from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) datasets result in valuable constraints on earthquake processes. The recent increase in the quantity of observations of coseismic deformation facilitates the examination of signals in many tectonic environments associated with earthquakes of varying magnitude. Efforts to place robust constraints on the evolution of the crustal stress field following great earthquakes often rely on knowledge of the earthquake location, the fault geometry, and the distribution of slip along the fault plane. Well-characterized uncertainties and biases strengthen the quality of inferred earthquake source parameters, particularly when the associated ground displacement signals are near the detection limit. Well-preserved geomorphic records of earthquakes offer additional insight into the mechanical behavior of the shallow crust and the kinematics of plate boundary systems. Together, geodetic and geologic observations of crustal deformation offer insight into the processes that drive seismic cycle deformation over a range of timescales. In this thesis, I examine several challenges associated with the inversion of earthquake source parameters from SAR data. Variations in atmospheric humidity, temperature, and pressure at the timing of SAR acquisitions result in spatially correlated phase delays that are challenging to distinguish from signals of real ground deformation. I characterize the impact of atmospheric noise on inferred earthquake source parameters following elevation-dependent atmospheric corrections. I analyze the spatial and temporal variations in the statistics of atmospheric noise from both reanalysis weather models and InSAR data itself. Using statistics that reflect the spatial heterogeneity of atmospheric characteristics, I examine parameter errors for several synthetic cases of fault slip on a basin-bounding normal fault. I show a decrease in uncertainty in fault geometry and kinematics following the application of atmospheric corrections to an event spanned by real InSAR data, the 1992 M5.6 Little Skull Mountain, Nevada, earthquake. Finally, I discuss how the derived workflow could be applied to other tectonic problems, such as solving for interseismic strain accumulation rates in a subduction zone environment. I also study the evolution of the crustal stress field in the South American plate following two recent great earthquakes along the Nazca- South America subduction zone. I show that the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile, earthquake very likely triggered several moderate magnitude earthquakes in the Andean volcanic arc and backarc. This suggests that great earthquakes modulate the crustal stress field outside of the immediate aftershock zone and that far-field faults may pose a heightened hazard following large subduction earthquakes. The 2014 Mw 8.1 Pisagua, Chile, earthquake reopened ancient surface cracks that have been preserved in the hyperarid forearc setting of northern Chile for thousands of earthquake cycles. The orientation of cracks reopened in this event reflects the static and likely dynamic stresses generated by the recent earthquake. Coseismic cracks serve as a reliable marker of permanent earthquake deformation and plate boundary behavior persistent over the million-year timescale. This work on great earthquakes suggests that InSAR observations can play a crucial role in furthering our understanding of the crustal mechanics that drive seismic cycle processes in subduction zones.

Extension of Characterized Source Model for Broadband Strong Ground Motion Simulations (0.1-50s) of M9 Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asano, K.; Iwata, T.

2014-12-01

After the 2011 Tohoku earthquake in Japan (Mw9.0), many papers on the source model of this mega subduction earthquake have been published. From our study on the modeling of strong motion waveforms in the period 0.1-10s, four isolated strong motion generation areas (SMGAs) were identified in the area deeper than 25 km (Asano and Iwata, 2012). The locations of these SMGAs were found to correspond to the asperities of M7-class events in 1930's. However, many studies on kinematic rupture modeling using seismic, geodetic and tsunami data revealed that the existence of the large slip area from the trench to the hypocenter (e.g., Fujii et al., 2011; Koketsu et al., 2011; Shao et al., 2011; Suzuki et al., 2011). That is, the excitation of seismic wave is spatially different in long and short period ranges as is already discussed by Lay et al.(2012) and related studies. The Tohoku earthquake raised a new issue we have to solve on the relationship between the strong motion generation and the fault rupture process, and it is an important issue to advance the source modeling for future strong motion prediction. The previous our source model consists of four SMGAs, and observed ground motions in the period range 0.1-10s are explained well by this source model. We tried to extend our source model to explain the observed ground motions in wider period range with a simple assumption referring to the previous our study and the concept of the characterized source model (Irikura and Miyake, 2001, 2011). We obtained a characterized source model, which have four SMGAs in the deep part, one large slip area in the shallow part and background area with low slip. The seismic moment of this source model is equivalent to Mw9.0. The strong ground motions are simulated by the empirical Green's function method (Irikura, 1986). Though the longest period limit is restricted by the SN ratio of the EGF event (Mw~6.0) records, this new source model succeeded to reproduce the observed waveforms and Fourier amplitude spectra in the period range 0.1-50s. The location of this large slip area seems to overlap the source regions of historical events in 1793 and 1897 off Sanriku area. We think the source model for strong motion prediction of Mw9 event could be constructed by the combination of hierarchical multiple asperities or source patches related to histrorical events in this region.

Alaska earthquake source for the SAFRR tsunami scenario: Chapter B in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirby, Stephen; Scholl, David; von Huene, Roland E.; Wells, Ray

2013-01-01

Tsunami modeling has shown that tsunami sources located along the Alaska Peninsula segment of the Aleutian-Alaska subduction zone have the greatest impacts on southern California shorelines by raising the highest tsunami waves for a given source seismic moment. The most probable sector for a Mw ~ 9 source within this subduction segment is between Kodiak Island and the Shumagin Islands in what we call the Semidi subduction sector; these bounds represent the southwestern limit of the 1964 Mw 9.2 Alaska earthquake rupture and the northeastern edge of the Shumagin sector that recent Global Positioning System (GPS) observations indicate is currently creeping. Geological and geophysical features in the Semidi sector that are thought to be relevant to the potential for large magnitude, long-rupture-runout interplate thrust earthquakes are remarkably similar to those in northeastern Japan, where the destructive Mw 9.1 tsunamigenic earthquake of 11 March 2011 occurred. In this report we propose and justify the selection of a tsunami source seaward of the Alaska Peninsula for use in the Tsunami Scenario that is part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) Project. This tsunami source should have the potential to raise damaging tsunami waves on the California coast, especially at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Accordingly, we have summarized and abstracted slip distribution from the source literature on the 2011 event, the best characterized for any subduction earthquake, and applied this synoptic slip distribution to the similar megathrust geometry of the Semidi sector. The resulting slip model has an average slip of 18.6 m and a moment magnitude of Mw = 9.1. The 2011 Tohoku earthquake was not anticipated, despite Japan having the best seismic and geodetic networks in the world and the best historical record in the world over the past 1,500 years. What was lacking was adequate paleogeologic data on prehistoric earthquakes and tsunamis, a data gap that also presently applies to the Alaska Peninsula and the Aleutian Islands. Quantitative appraisal of potential tsunami sources in Alaska requires such investigations.

U.S. Quaternary Fault and Fold Database Released

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haller, Kathleen M.; Machette, Michael N.; Dart, Richard L.; Rhea, B. Susan

2004-06-01

A comprehensive online compilation of Quaternary-age faults and folds throughout the United States was recently released by the U.S. Geological Survey, with cooperation from state geological surveys, academia, and the private sector. The Web site at http://Qfaults.cr.usgs.gov/ contains searchable databases and related geo-spatial data that characterize earthquake-related structures that could be potential seismic sources for large-magnitude (M > 6) earthquakes.

Earthquake sources near Uturuncu Volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keyson, L.; West, M. E.

2013-12-01

Uturuncu, located in southern Bolivia near the Chile and Argentina border, is a dacitic volcano that was last active 270 ka. It is a part of the Altiplano-Puna Volcanic Complex, which spans 50,000 km2 and is comprised of a series of ignimbrite flare-ups since ~23 ma. Two sets of evidence suggest that the region is underlain by a significant magma body. First, seismic velocities show a low velocity layer consistent with a magmatic sill below depths of 15-20 km. This inference is corroborated by high electrical conductivity between 10km and 30km. This magma body, the so called Altiplano-Puna Magma Body (APMB) is the likely source of volcanic activity in the region. InSAR studies show that during the 1990s, the volcano experienced an average uplift of about 1 to 2 cm per year. The deformation is consistent with an expanding source at depth. Though the Uturuncu region exhibits high rates of crustal seismicity, any connection between the inflation and the seismicity is unclear. We investigate the root causes of these earthquakes using a temporary network of 33 seismic stations - part of the PLUTONS project. Our primary approach is based on hypocenter locations and magnitudes paired with correlation-based relative relocation techniques. We find a strong tendency toward earthquake swarms that cluster in space and time. These swarms often last a few days and consist of numerous earthquakes with similar source mechanisms. Most seismicity occurs in the top 10 kilometers of the crust and is characterized by well-defined phase arrivals and significant high frequency content. The frequency-magnitude relationship of this seismicity demonstrates b-values consistent with tectonic sources. There is a strong clustering of earthquakes around the Uturuncu edifice. Earthquakes elsewhere in the region align in bands striking northwest-southeast consistent with regional stresses.

A New Network-Based Approach for the Earthquake Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandro, C.; Zollo, A.; Colombelli, S.; Elia, L.

2017-12-01

Here we propose a new method which allows for issuing an early warning based upon the real-time mapping of the Potential Damage Zone (PDZ), e.g. the epicentral area where the peak ground velocity is expected to exceed the damaging or strong shaking levels with no assumption about the earthquake rupture extent and spatial variability of ground motion. The system includes the techniques for a refined estimation of the main source parameters (earthquake location and magnitude) and for an accurate prediction of the expected ground shaking level. The system processes the 3-component, real-time ground acceleration and velocity data streams at each station. For stations providing high quality data, the characteristic P-wave period (τc) and the P-wave displacement, velocity and acceleration amplitudes (Pd, Pv and Pa) are jointly measured on a progressively expanded P-wave time window. The evolutionary estimate of these parameters at stations around the source allow to predict the geometry and extent of PDZ, but also of the lower shaking intensity regions at larger epicentral distances. This is done by correlating the measured P-wave amplitude with the Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) and Instrumental Intensity (IMM) and by interpolating the measured and predicted P-wave amplitude at a dense spatial grid, including the nodes of the accelerometer/velocimeter array deployed in the earthquake source area. Depending of the network density and spatial source coverage, this method naturally accounts for effects related to the earthquake rupture extent (e.g. source directivity) and spatial variability of strong ground motion related to crustal wave propagation and site amplification. We have tested this system by a retrospective analysis of three earthquakes: 2016 Italy 6.5 Mw, 2008 Iwate-Miyagi 6.9 Mw and 2011 Tohoku 9.0 Mw. Source parameters characterization are stable and reliable, also the intensity map shows extended source effects consistent with kinematic fracture models of evets.

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Sumatra, Indonesia and across the Southern Malaysian Peninsula

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, M.D.; Dewey, J.; Hartzell, S.; Mueller, C.; Harmsen, S.; Frankel, A.D.; Rukstales, K.

2004-01-01

The ground motion hazard for Sumatra and the Malaysian peninsula is calculated in a probabilistic framework, using procedures developed for the US National Seismic Hazard Maps. We constructed regional earthquake source models and used standard published and modified attenuation equations to calculate peak ground acceleration at 2% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock site conditions. We developed or modified earthquake catalogs and declustered these catalogs to include only independent earthquakes. The resulting catalogs were used to define four source zones that characterize earthquakes in four tectonic environments: subduction zone interface earthquakes, subduction zone deep intraslab earthquakes, strike-slip transform earthquakes, and intraplate earthquakes. The recurrence rates and sizes of historical earthquakes on known faults and across zones were also determined from this modified catalog. In addition to the source zones, our seismic source model considers two major faults that are known historically to generate large earthquakes: the Sumatran subduction zone and the Sumatran transform fault. Several published studies were used to describe earthquakes along these faults during historical and pre-historical time, as well as to identify segmentation models of faults. Peak horizontal ground accelerations were calculated using ground motion prediction relations that were developed from seismic data obtained from the crustal interplate environment, crustal intraplate environment, along the subduction zone interface, and from deep intraslab earthquakes. Most of these relations, however, have not been developed for large distances that are needed for calculating the hazard across the Malaysian peninsula, and none were developed for earthquake ground motions generated in an interplate tectonic environment that are propagated into an intraplate tectonic environment. For the interplate and intraplate crustal earthquakes, we have applied ground-motion prediction relations that are consistent with California (interplate) and India (intraplate) strong motion data that we collected for distances beyond 200 km. For the subduction zone equations, we recognized that the published relationships at large distances were not consistent with global earthquake data that we collected and modified the relations to be compatible with the global subduction zone ground motions. In this analysis, we have used alternative source and attenuation models and weighted them to account for our uncertainty in which model is most appropriate for Sumatra or for the Malaysian peninsula. The resulting peak horizontal ground accelerations for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years range from over 100% g to about 10% g across Sumatra and generally less than 20% g across most of the Malaysian peninsula. The ground motions at 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years are typically about 60% of the ground motions derived for a hazard level at 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The largest contributors to hazard are from the Sumatran faults.

Comparisons of Source Characteristics between Recent Inland Crustal Earthquake Sequences inside and outside of Niigata-Kobe Tectonic Zone, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somei, K.; Asano, K.; Iwata, T.; Miyakoshi, K.

2012-12-01

After the 1995 Kobe earthquake, many M7-class inland earthquakes occurred in Japan. Some of those events (e.g., the 2004 Chuetsu earthquake) occurred in a tectonic zone which is characterized as a high strain rate zone by the GPS observation (Sagiya et al., 2000) or dense distribution of active faults. That belt-like zone along the coast in Japan Sea side of Tohoku and Chubu districts, and north of Kinki district, is called as the Niigata-Kobe tectonic zone (NKTZ, Sagiya et al, 2000). We investigate seismic scaling relationship for recent inland crustal earthquake sequences in Japan and compare source characteristics between events occurring inside and outside of NKTZ. We used S-wave coda part for estimating source spectra. Source spectral ratio is obtained by S-wave coda spectral ratio between the records of large and small events occurring close to each other from nation-wide strong motion network (K-NET and KiK-net) and broad-band seismic network (F-net) to remove propagation-path and site effects. We carefully examined the commonality of the decay of coda envelopes between event-pair records and modeled the observed spectral ratio by the source spectral ratio function with assuming omega-square source model for large and small events. We estimated the corner frequencies and seismic moment (ratio) from those modeled spectral ratio function. We determined Brune's stress drops of 356 events (Mw: 3.1-6.9) in ten earthquake sequences occurring in NKTZ and six sequences occurring outside of NKTZ. Most of source spectra obey omega-square source spectra. There is no obvious systematic difference between stress drops of events in NKTZ zone and others. We may conclude that the systematic tendency of seismic source scaling of the events occurred inside and outside of NKTZ does not exist and the average source scaling relationship can be effective for inland crustal earthquakes. Acknowledgements: Waveform data were provided from K-NET, KiK-net and F-net operated by National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention Japan. This study is supported by Multidisciplinary research project for Niigata-Kobe tectonic zone promoted by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan.

Uncertainties for seismic moment tensors and applications to nuclear explosions, volcanic events, and earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tape, C.; Alvizuri, C. R.; Silwal, V.; Tape, W.

2017-12-01

When considered as a point source, a seismic source can be characterized in terms of its origin time, hypocenter, moment tensor, and source time function. The seismologist's task is to estimate these parameters--and their uncertainties--from three-component ground motion recorded at irregularly spaced stations. We will focus on one portion of this problem: the estimation of the moment tensor and its uncertainties. With magnitude estimated separately, we are left with five parameters describing the normalized moment tensor. A lune of normalized eigenvalue triples can be used to visualize the two parameters (lune longitude and lune latitude) describing the source type, while the conventional strike, dip, and rake angles can be used to characterize the orientation. Slight modifications of these five parameters lead to a uniform parameterization of moment tensors--uniform in the sense that equal volumes in the coordinate domain of the parameterization correspond to equal volumes of moment tensors. For a moment tensor m that we have inferred from seismic data for an earthquake, we define P(V) to be the probability that the true moment tensor for the earthquake lies in the neighborhood of m that has fractional volume V. The average value of P(V) is then a measure of our confidence in our inference of m. The calculation of P(V) requires knowing both the probability P(w) and the fractional volume V(w) of the set of moment tensors within a given angular radius w of m. We apply this approach to several different data sets, including nuclear explosions from the Nevada Test Site, volcanic events from Uturuncu (Bolivia), and earthquakes. Several challenges remain: choosing an appropriate misfit function, handling time shifts between data and synthetic waveforms, and extending the uncertainty estimation to include more source parameters (e.g., hypocenter and source time function).

Seismic Sources for the Territory of Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsereteli, N. S.; Varazanashvili, O.

2011-12-01

The southern Caucasus is an earthquake prone region where devastating earthquakes have repeatedly caused significant loss of lives, infrastructure and buildings. High geodynamic activity of the region expressed in both seismic and aseismic deformations, is conditioned by the still-ongoing convergence of lithospheric plates and northward propagation of the Afro-Arabian continental block at a rate of several cm/year. The geometry of tectonic deformations in the region is largely determined by the wedge-shaped rigid Arabian block intensively intended into the relatively mobile Middle East-Caucasian region. Georgia is partner of ongoing regional project EMME. The main objective of EMME is calculation of Earthquake hazard uniformly with heights standards. One approach used in the project is the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. In this approach the first parameter requirement is the definition of seismic source zones. Seismic sources can be either faults or area sources. Seismoactive structures of Georgia are identified mainly on the basis of the correlation between neotectonic structures of the region and earthquakes. Requirements of modern PSH software to geometry of faults is very high. As our knowledge of active faults geometry is not sufficient, area sources were used. Seismic sources are defined as zones that are characterized with more or less uniform seismicity. Poor knowledge of the processes occurring in deep of the Earth is connected with complexity of direct measurement. From this point of view the reliable data obtained from earthquake fault plane solution is unique for understanding the character of a current tectonic life of investigated area. There are two methods of identification if seismic sources. The first is the seimsotectonic approach, based on identification of extensive homogeneous seismic sources (SS) with the definition of probability of occurrence of maximum earthquake Mmax. In the second method the identification of seismic sources will be obtained on the bases of structural geology, parameters of seismicity and seismotectonics. This last approach was used by us. For achievement of this purpose it was necessary to solve following problems: to calculate the parameters of seismotectonic deformation; to reveal regularities in character of earthquake fault plane solution; use obtained regularities to develop principles of an establishment of borders between various hierarchical and scale levels of seismic deformations fields and to give their geological interpretation; Three dimensional matching of active faults with real geometrical dimension and earthquake sources have been investigated. Finally each zone have been defined with the parameters: the geometry, the magnitude-frequency parameters, maximum magnitude, and depth distribution as well as modern dynamical characteristics widely used for complex processes

Improved earthquake monitoring in the central and eastern United States in support of seismic assessments for critical facilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leith, William S.; Benz, Harley M.; Herrmann, Robert B.

2011-01-01

Evaluation of seismic monitoring capabilities in the central and eastern United States for critical facilities - including nuclear powerplants - focused on specific improvements to understand better the seismic hazards in the region. The report is not an assessment of seismic safety at nuclear plants. To accomplish the evaluation and to provide suggestions for improvements using funding from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey examined addition of new strong-motion seismic stations in areas of seismic activity and addition of new seismic stations near nuclear power-plant locations, along with integration of data from the Transportable Array of some 400 mobile seismic stations. Some 38 and 68 stations, respectively, were suggested for addition in active seismic zones and near-power-plant locations. Expansion of databases for strong-motion and other earthquake source-characterization data also was evaluated. Recognizing pragmatic limitations of station deployment, augmentation of existing deployments provides improvements in source characterization by quantification of near-source attenuation in regions where larger earthquakes are expected. That augmentation also supports systematic data collection from existing networks. The report further utilizes the application of modeling procedures and processing algorithms, with the additional stations and the improved seismic databases, to leverage the capabilities of existing and expanded seismic arrays.

Source characterization of a small earthquake cluster at Edmond, Oklahoma using a very dense array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ng, R.; Nakata, N.

2017-12-01

Recent seismicity in Oklahoma has caught the attention of the public in the last few years since seismicity is commonly related to loss in urban areas. To account for the increase in public interest, improve the understanding of damaging ground motions produced in earthquakes and develop better seismic hazard assessment, we must characterize the seismicity in Oklahoma and its associated structure and source parameters. Regional changes in subsurface stresses have increased seismic activities due to reactivation of faults in places such as central Oklahoma. It is imperative for seismic investigation and modeling to characterize subsurface structural features that may influence the damaging effects of ground motion. We analyze the full-waveform data collected from a temporary dense array of 72 portable seismometers with a 110 meter spacing that were active for a one-month period from May to June 2017, deployed at Edmond, Oklahoma. The data from this one-month duration array captured over 10,000 events and enabled us to make measurements of small-scale lateral variations of earthquake wavefields. We examine the waveform for events using advanced methods of detection, location and determine the source mechanism. We compare our results with selected events listed in the Oklahoma Geological Survey (OGS) and United States Geological Survey (USGS) catalogue. Based on the detection and located small events, we will discuss the causative fault structure at the area and present the results of the investigation.

Earthquake Forecasting in Northeast India using Energy Blocked Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohapatra, A. K.; Mohanty, D. K.

2009-12-01

In the present study, the cumulative seismic energy released by earthquakes (M ≥ 5) for a period 1897 to 2007 is analyzed for Northeast (NE) India. It is one of the most seismically active regions of the world. The occurrence of three great earthquakes like 1897 Shillong plateau earthquake (Mw= 8.7), 1934 Bihar Nepal earthquake with (Mw= 8.3) and 1950 Upper Assam earthquake (Mw= 8.7) signify the possibility of great earthquakes in future from this region. The regional seismicity map for the study region is prepared by plotting the earthquake data for the period 1897 to 2007 from the source like USGS,ISC catalogs, GCMT database, Indian Meteorological department (IMD). Based on the geology, tectonic and seismicity the study region is classified into three source zones such as Zone 1: Arakan-Yoma zone (AYZ), Zone 2: Himalayan Zone (HZ) and Zone 3: Shillong Plateau zone (SPZ). The Arakan-Yoma Range is characterized by the subduction zone, developed by the junction of the Indian Plate and the Eurasian Plate. It shows a dense clustering of earthquake events and the 1908 eastern boundary earthquake. The Himalayan tectonic zone depicts the subduction zone, and the Assam syntaxis. This zone suffered by the great earthquakes like the 1950 Assam, 1934 Bihar and the 1951 Upper Himalayan earthquakes with Mw > 8. The Shillong Plateau zone was affected by major faults like the Dauki fault and exhibits its own style of the prominent tectonic features. The seismicity and hazard potential of Shillong Plateau is distinct from the Himalayan thrust. Using energy blocked model by Tsuboi, the forecasting of major earthquakes for each source zone is estimated. As per the energy blocked model, the supply of energy for potential earthquakes in an area is remarkably uniform with respect to time and the difference between the supply energy and cumulative energy released for a span of time, is a good indicator of energy blocked and can be utilized for the forecasting of major earthquakes. The proposed process provides a more consistent model of gradual accumulation of strain and non-uniform release through large earthquakes and can be applied in the evaluation of seismic risk. The cumulative seismic energy released by major earthquakes throughout the period from 1897 to 2007 of last 110 years in the all the zones are calculated and plotted. The plot gives characteristics curve for each zone. Each curve is irregular, reflecting occasional high activity. The maximum earthquake energy available at a particular time in a given area is given by S. The difference between the theoretical upper limit given by S and the cumulative energy released up to that time is calculated to find out the maximum magnitude of an earthquake which can occur in future. Energy blocked of the three source regions are 1.35*1017 Joules, 4.25*1017 Joules and 0.12*1017 in Joules respectively for source zone 1, 2 and 3, as a supply for potential earthquakes in due course of time. The predicted maximum magnitude (mmax) obtained for each source zone AYZ, HZ, and SPZ are 8.2, 8.6, and 8.4 respectively by this model. This study is also consistent with the previous predicted results by other workers.

W phase source inversion for moderate to large earthquakes (1990-2010)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duputel, Zacharie; Rivera, Luis; Kanamori, Hiroo; Hayes, Gavin P.

2012-01-01

Rapid characterization of the earthquake source and of its effects is a growing field of interest. Until recently, it still took several hours to determine the first-order attributes of a great earthquake (e.g. Mw≥ 7.5), even in a well-instrumented region. The main limiting factors were data saturation, the interference of different phases and the time duration and spatial extent of the source rupture. To accelerate centroid moment tensor (CMT) determinations, we have developed a source inversion algorithm based on modelling of the W phase, a very long period phase (100–1000 s) arriving at the same time as the P wave. The purpose of this work is to finely tune and validate the algorithm for large-to-moderate-sized earthquakes using three components of W phase ground motion at teleseismic distances. To that end, the point source parameters of all Mw≥ 6.5 earthquakes that occurred between 1990 and 2010 (815 events) are determined using Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks, Global Seismographic Network broad-band stations and STS1 global virtual networks of the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology Data Management Center. For each event, a preliminary magnitude obtained from W phase amplitudes is used to estimate the initial moment rate function half duration and to define the corner frequencies of the passband filter that will be applied to the waveforms. Starting from these initial parameters, the seismic moment tensor is calculated using a preliminary location as a first approximation of the centroid. A full CMT inversion is then conducted for centroid timing and location determination. Comparisons with Harvard and Global CMT solutions highlight the robustness of W phase CMT solutions at teleseismic distances. The differences in Mw rarely exceed 0.2 and the source mechanisms are very similar to one another. Difficulties arise when a target earthquake is shortly (e.g. within 10 hr) preceded by another large earthquake, which disturbs the waveforms of the target event. To deal with such difficult situations, we remove the perturbation caused by earlier disturbing events by subtracting the corresponding synthetics from the data. The CMT parameters for the disturbed event can then be retrieved using the residual seismograms. We also explore the feasibility of obtaining source parameters of smaller earthquakes in the range 6.0 ≤Mw w= 6 or larger.

Ground-motion modeling of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, part I: Validation using the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aagaard, Brad T.; Brocher, T.M.; Dolenc, D.; Dreger, D.; Graves, R.W.; Harmsen, S.; Hartzell, S.; Larsen, S.; Zoback, M.L.

2008-01-01

We compute ground motions for the Beroza (1991) and Wald et al. (1991) source models of the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake using four different wave-propagation codes and recently developed 3D geologic and seismic velocity models. In preparation for modeling the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, we use this well-recorded earthquake to characterize how well our ground-motion simulations reproduce the observed shaking intensities and amplitude and durations of recorded motions throughout the San Francisco Bay Area. All of the simulations generate ground motions consistent with the large-scale spatial variations in shaking associated with rupture directivity and the geologic structure. We attribute the small variations among the synthetics to the minimum shear-wave speed permitted in the simulations and how they accommodate topography. Our long-period simulations, on average, under predict shaking intensities by about one-half modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) units (25%-35% in peak velocity), while our broadband simulations, on average, under predict the shaking intensities by one-fourth MMI units (16% in peak velocity). Discrepancies with observations arise due to errors in the source models and geologic structure. The consistency in the synthetic waveforms across the wave-propagation codes for a given source model suggests the uncertainty in the source parameters tends to exceed the uncertainty in the seismic velocity structure. In agreement with earlier studies, we find that a source model with slip more evenly distributed northwest and southeast of the hypocenter would be preferable to both the Beroza and Wald source models. Although the new 3D seismic velocity model improves upon previous velocity models, we identify two areas needing improvement. Nevertheless, we find that the seismic velocity model and the wave-propagation codes are suitable for modeling the 1906 earthquake and scenario events in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Earthquake scaling laws for rupture geometry and slip heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.; Mai, P. Martin; Goda, Katsuichiro

2016-04-01

We analyze an extensive compilation of finite-fault rupture models to investigate earthquake scaling of source geometry and slip heterogeneity to derive new relationships for seismic and tsunami hazard assessment. Our dataset comprises 158 earthquakes with a total of 316 rupture models selected from the SRCMOD database (http://equake-rc.info/srcmod). We find that fault-length does not saturate with earthquake magnitude, while fault-width reveals inhibited growth due to the finite seismogenic thickness. For strike-slip earthquakes, fault-length grows more rapidly with increasing magnitude compared to events of other faulting types. Interestingly, our derived relationship falls between the L-model and W-model end-members. In contrast, both reverse and normal dip-slip events are more consistent with self-similar scaling of fault-length. However, fault-width scaling relationships for large strike-slip and normal dip-slip events, occurring on steeply dipping faults (δ~90° for strike-slip faults, and δ~60° for normal faults), deviate from self-similarity. Although reverse dip-slip events in general show self-similar scaling, the restricted growth of down-dip fault extent (with upper limit of ~200 km) can be seen for mega-thrust subduction events (M~9.0). Despite this fact, for a given earthquake magnitude, subduction reverse dip-slip events occupy relatively larger rupture area, compared to shallow crustal events. In addition, we characterize slip heterogeneity in terms of its probability distribution and spatial correlation structure to develop a complete stochastic random-field characterization of earthquake slip. We find that truncated exponential law best describes the probability distribution of slip, with observable scale parameters determined by the average and maximum slip. Applying Box-Cox transformation to slip distributions (to create quasi-normal distributed data) supports cube-root transformation, which also implies distinctive non-Gaussian slip distributions. To further characterize the spatial correlations of slip heterogeneity, we analyze the power spectral decay of slip applying the 2-D von Karman auto-correlation function (parameterized by the Hurst exponent, H, and correlation lengths along strike and down-slip). The Hurst exponent is scale invariant, H = 0.83 (± 0.12), while the correlation lengths scale with source dimensions (seismic moment), thus implying characteristic physical scales of earthquake ruptures. Our self-consistent scaling relationships allow constraining the generation of slip-heterogeneity scenarios for physics-based ground-motion and tsunami simulations.

The Effect of the 2015 Earthquake on the Bacterial Community Compositions in Water in Nepal

PubMed Central

Uprety, Sital; Hong, Pei-Ying; Sadik, Nora; Dangol, Bipin; Adhikari, Rameswor; Jutla, Antarpreet; Shisler, Joanna L.; Degnan, Patrick; Nguyen, Thanh H.

2017-01-01

We conducted a study to examine the effect of seasonal variations and the disruptive effects of the 2015 Nepal earthquake on microbial communities associated with drinking water sources. We first characterized the microbial communities of water samples in two Nepali regions (Kathmandu and Jhapa) to understand the stability of microbial communities in water samples collected in 2014. We analyzed additional water samples from the same sources collected from May to August 2015, allowing the comparison of samples from dry-to-dry season and from dry-to-monsoon seasons. Emphasis was placed on microbes responsible for maintaining the geobiochemical characteristics of water (e.g., ammonia-oxidizing and nitrite-oxidizing bacteria and archaea and sulfate-reducing bacteria) and opportunistic pathogens often found in water (Acinetobacter). When examining samples from Jhapa, we identified that most geobiochemical microbe populations remained similar. When examining samples from Kathmandu, the abundance of microbial genera responsible for maintaining the geobiochemical characteristics of water increased immediately after the earthquake and decreased 8 months later (December 2015). In addition, microbial source tracking was used to monitor human fecal contamination and revealed deteriorated water quality in some specific sampling sites in Kathmandu post-earthquake. This study highlights a disruption of the environmental microbiome after an earthquake and the restoration of these microbial communities as a function of time and sanitation practices. PMID:29270153

Initial source and site characterization studies for the U.C. Santa Barbara campus

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Archuleta, R.; Nicholson, C.; Steidl, J.

1997-12-01

The University of California Campus-Laboratory Collaboration (CLC) project is an integrated 3 year effort involving Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and four UC campuses - Los Angeles (UCLA), Riverside (UCR), Santa Barbara (UCSB), and San Diego (UCSD) - plus additional collaborators at San Diego State University (SDSU), at Los Alamos National Laboratory and in industry. The primary purpose of the project is to estimate potential ground motions from large earthquakes and to predict site-specific ground motions for one critical structure on each campus. This project thus combines the disciplines of geology, seismology, geodesy, soil dynamics, and earthquake engineering into amore » fully integrated approach. Once completed, the CLC project will provide a template to evaluate other buildings at each of the four UC campuses, as well as provide a methodology for evaluating seismic hazards at other critical sites in California, including other UC locations at risk from large earthquakes. Another important objective of the CLC project is the education of students and other professional in the application of this integrated, multidisciplinary, state-of-the-art approach to the assessment of earthquake hazard. For each campus targeted by the CLC project, the seismic hazard study will consist of four phases: Phase I - Initial source and site characterization, Phase II - Drilling, logging, seismic monitoring, and laboratory dynamic soil testing, Phase III - Modeling of predicted site-specific earthquake ground motions, and Phase IV - Calculations of 3D building response. This report cover Phase I for the UCSB campus and incudes results up through March 1997.« less

Improved Detection of Local Earthquakes in the Vienna Basin (Austria), using Subspace Detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apoloner, Maria-Theresia; Caffagni, Enrico; Bokelmann, Götz

2016-04-01

The Vienna Basin in Eastern Austria is densely populated and highly-developed; it is also a region of low to moderate seismicity, yet the seismological network coverage is relatively sparse. This demands improving our capability of earthquake detection by testing new methods, enlarging the existing local earthquake catalogue. This contributes to imaging tectonic fault zones for better understanding seismic hazard, also through improved earthquake statistics (b-value, magnitude of completeness). Detection of low-magnitude earthquakes or events for which the highest amplitudes slightly exceed the signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR), may be possible by using standard methods like the short-term over long-term average (STA/LTA). However, due to sparse network coverage and high background noise, such a technique may not detect all potentially recoverable events. Yet, earthquakes originating from the same source region and relatively close to each other, should be characterized by similarity in seismic waveforms, at a given station. Therefore, waveform similarity can be exploited by using specific techniques such as correlation-template based (also known as matched filtering) or subspace detection methods (based on the subspace theory). Matching techniques basically require a reference or template event, usually characterized by high waveform coherence in the array receivers, and high SNR, which is cross-correlated with the continuous data. Instead, subspace detection methods overcome in principle the necessity of defining template events as single events, but use a subspace extracted from multiple events. This approach theoretically should be more robust in detecting signals that exhibit a strong variability (e.g. because of source or magnitude). In this study we scan the continuous data recorded in the Vienna Basin with a subspace detector to identify additional events. This will allow us to estimate the increase of the seismicity rate in the local earthquake catalogue, therefore providing an evaluation of network performance and efficiency of the method.

Deterministic Tectonic Origin Tsunami Hazard Analysis for the Eastern Mediterranean and its Connected Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Necmioglu, O.; Meral Ozel, N.

2014-12-01

Accurate earthquake source parameters are essential for any tsunami hazard assessment and mitigation, including early warning systems. Complex tectonic setting makes the a priori accurate assumptions of earthquake source parameters difficult and characterization of the faulting type is a challenge. Information on tsunamigenic sources is of crucial importance in the Eastern Mediterranean and its Connected Seas, especially considering the short arrival times and lack of offshore sea-level measurements. In addition, the scientific community have had to abandon the paradigm of a ''maximum earthquake'' predictable from simple tectonic parameters (Ruff and Kanamori, 1980) in the wake of the 2004 Sumatra event (Okal, 2010) and one of the lessons learnt from the 2011 Tohoku event was that tsunami hazard maps may need to be prepared for infrequent gigantic earthquakes as well as more frequent smaller-sized earthquakes (Satake, 2011). We have initiated an extensive modeling study to perform a deterministic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for the Eastern Mediterranean and its Connected Seas. Characteristic earthquake source parameters (strike, dip, rake, depth, Mwmax) at each 0.5° x 0.5° size bin for 0-40 km depth (total of 310 bins) and for 40-100 km depth (total of 92 bins) in the Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean and Black Sea region (30°N-48°N and 22°E-44°E) have been assigned from the harmonization of the available databases and previous studies. These parameters have been used as input parameters for the deterministic tsunami hazard modeling. Nested Tsunami simulations of 6h duration with a coarse (2 arc-min) and medium (1 arc-min) grid resolution have been simulated at EC-JRC premises for Black Sea and Eastern and Central Mediterranean (30°N-41.5°N and 8°E-37°E) for each source defined using shallow water finite-difference SWAN code (Mader, 2004) for the magnitude range of 6.5 - Mwmax defined for that bin with a Mw increment of 0.1. Results show that not only the earthquakes resembling the well-known historical earthquakes such as AD 365 or AD 1303 in the Hellenic Arc, but also earthquakes with lower magnitudes do constitute to the tsunami hazard in the study area.

Insights in Low Frequency Earthquake Source Processes from Observations of Their Size-Duration Scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farge, G.; Shapiro, N.; Frank, W.; Mercury, N.; Vilotte, J. P.

2017-12-01

Low frequency earthquakes (LFE) are detected in association with volcanic and tectonic tremor signals as impulsive, repeated, low frequency (1-5 Hz) events originating from localized sources. While the mechanism causing this depletion of the high frequency content of their signal is still unknown, this feature may indicate that the source processes at the origin of LFE are different from those for regular earthquakes. Tectonic LFE are often associated with slip instabilities in the brittle-ductile transition zones of active faults and volcanic LFE with fluid transport in magmatic and hydrothermal systems. Key constraints on the LFE-generating physical mechanisms can be obtained by establishing scaling laws between their sizes and durations. We apply a simple spectral analysis method to the S-waveforms of each LFE to retrieve its seismic moment and corner frequency. The former characterizes the earthquake's size while the latter is inversely proportional to its duration. First, we analyze a selection of tectonic LFE from the Mexican "Sweet Spot" (Guerrero, Mexico). We find characteristic values of M ˜ 1013 N.m (Mw ˜ 2.6) and fc ˜ 2 Hz. The moment-corner frequency distribution compared to values reported in previous studies in tectonic contexts is consistent with the scaling law suggested by Bostock et al. (2015): fc ˜ M-1/10 . We then apply the same source- parameters determination method to deep volcanic LFE detected in the Klyuchevskoy volcanic group in Kamtchatka, Russia. While the seismic moments for these earthquakes are slightly smaller, they still approximately follow the fc ˜ M-1/10 scaling. This size-duration scaling observed for LFE is very different from the one established for regular earthquakes (fc ˜ M-1/3) and from the scaling more recently suggested by Ide et al. (2007) for the broad class of "slow earthquakes". The scaling observed for LFE suggests that they are generated by sources of nearly constant size with strongly varying intensities. LFE then do not exhibit the self-similarity characteristic of regular earthquakes, strongly suggesting that the physical mechanisms at their origin are different. Moreover, the agreement with the size-duration scaling for both tectonic and volcanic LFE might indicate a similarity in their source behavior.

A seismically active section of the Southwest Indian Ridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wald, David J.; Wallace, Terry C.

1986-10-01

The section of the Southwest Indian Ocean Ridge west of the Prince Edward Fracture zone has a large ridge axis offset and a complicated ridge-transform morphology. We have determined the source mechanisms of transform earthquakes along this portion of the ridge from an inversion of long-period P and SH waveforms. The seismicity is characterized by anomalous faulting mechanisms, source complexity and an unexpectedly large seismic moment release. Several earthquakes with dip-slip components of faulting have been recognized on the central section of the Andrew Bain and 32° E transforms suggesting geometrical complexity along the transform. This region has experienced a Mw = 8.0 transform earthquake in 1942, yet we observe a seismic slip rate during the last 20 years that is still comparable to the predicted spreading rate (1.6 cm/yr). The calculated slip rate over a period of 60 years is three times greater than the expected rate of spreading.

A study of regional waveform calibration in the eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Luccio, F.; Pino, N. A.; Thio, H. K.

2003-06-01

We modeled P nl phases from several moderate magnitude earthquakes in the eastern Mediterranean to test methods and develop path calibrations for determining source parameters. The study region, which extends from the eastern part of the Hellenic arc to the eastern Anatolian fault, is dominated by moderate earthquakes that can produce significant damage. Our results are useful for analyzing regional seismicity as well as seismic hazard, because very few broadband seismic stations are available in the selected area. For the whole region we have obtained a single velocity model characterized by a 30 km thick crust, low upper mantle velocities and a very thin lid overlaying a distinct low velocity layer. Our preferred model proved quite reliable for determining focal mechanism and seismic moment across the entire range of selected paths. The source depth is also well constrained, especially for moderate earthquakes.

Characterizing spatial heterogeneity based on the b-value and fractal analyses of the 2015 Nepal earthquake sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nampally, Subhadra; Padhy, Simanchal; Dimri, Vijay P.

2018-01-01

The nature of spatial distribution of heterogeneities in the source area of the 2015 Nepal earthquake is characterized based on the seismic b-value and fractal analysis of its aftershocks. The earthquake size distribution of aftershocks gives a b-value of 1.11 ± 0.08, possibly representing the highly heterogeneous and low stress state of the region. The aftershocks exhibit a fractal structure characterized by a spectrum of generalized dimensions, Dq varying from D2 = 1.66 to D22 = 0.11. The existence of a fractal structure suggests that the spatial distribution of aftershocks is not a random phenomenon, but it self-organizes into a critical state, exhibiting a scale-independent structure governed by a power-law scaling, where a small perturbation in stress is sufficient enough to trigger aftershocks. In order to obtain the bias in fractal dimensions resulting from finite data size, we compared the multifractal spectrum for the real data and random simulations. On comparison, we found that the lower limit of bias in D2 is 0.44. The similarity in their multifractal spectra suggests the lack of long-range correlation in the data, with an only weakly multifractal or a monofractal with a single correlation dimension D2 characterizing the data. The minimum number of events required for a multifractal process with an acceptable error is discussed. We also tested for a possible correlation between changes in D2 and energy released during the earthquakes. The values of D2 rise during the two largest earthquakes (M > 7.0) in the sequence. The b- and D2 values are related by D2 = 1.45 b that corresponds to the intermediate to large earthquakes. Our results provide useful constraints on the spatial distribution of b- and D2-values, which are useful for seismic hazard assessment in the aftershock area of a large earthquake.

Response of high-rise and base-isolated buildings to a hypothetical M w 7.0 blind thrust earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heaton, T.H.; Hall, J.F.; Wald, D.J.; Halling, M.W.

1995-01-01

High-rise flexible-frame buildings are commonly considered to be resistant to shaking from the largest earthquakes. In addition, base isolation has become increasingly popular for critical buildings that should still function after an earthquake. How will these two types of buildings perform if a large earthquake occurs beneath a metropolitan area? To answer this question, we simulated the near-source ground motions of a Mw 7.0 thrust earthquake and then mathematically modeled the response of a 20-story steel-frame building and a 3-story base-isolated building. The synthesized ground motions were characterized by large displacement pulses (up to 2 meters) and large ground velocities. These ground motions caused large deformation and possible collapse of the frame building, and they required exceptional measures in the design of the base-isolated building if it was to remain functional.

Source parameters and rupture velocities of microearthquakes in western Nagano, Japan, determined using stopping phases

USGS Publications Warehouse

Imanishi, K.; Takeo, M.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Ito, H.; Matsuzawa, T.; Kuwahara, Y.; Iio, Y.; Horiuchi, S.; Ohmi, S.

2004-01-01

We use an inversion method based on stopping phases (Imanishi and Takeo, 2002) to estimate the source dimension, ellipticity, and rupture velocity of microearthquakes and investigate the scaling relationships between source parameters. We studied 25 earthquakes, ranging in size from M 1.3 to M 2.7, that occurred between May and August 1999 at the western Nagano prefecture, Japan, which is characterized by a high rate of shallow earthquakes. The data consist of seismograms recorded in an 800-m borehole and at 46 surface and 2 shallow borehole seismic stations whose spacing is a few kilometers. These data were recorded with a sampling frequency of 10 kHz. In particular, the 800-m-borehole data provide a wide frequency bandwidth with greatly reduced ground noise and coda wave amplitudes compared with surface recordings. High-frequency stopping phases appear in the body waves in Hilbert transform pairs and are readily detected on seismograms recorded in the 800-m borehole. After correcting both borehole and surface data for attenuation, we also measure the rise time, which is defined as the interval from the arrival time of the direct wave to the timing of the maximum amplitude in the displacement pulse. The differential time of the stopping phases and the rise times were used to obtain source parameters. We found that several microearthquakes propagated unilaterally, suggesting that all microearthquakes cannot be modeled as a simple circular crack model. Static stress drops range from approximately 0.1 to 2 MPa and do not vary with seismic moment. It seems that the breakdown in stress drop scaling seen in previous studies using surface data is simply an artifact of attenuation in the crust. The average value of rupture velocity does not depend on earthquake size and is similar to those reported for moderate and large earthquakes. It is likely that earthquakes are self-similar over a wide range of earthquake size and that the dynamics of small and large earthquakes are similar.

Characterizing Mega-Earthquake Related Tsunami on Subduction Zones without Large Historical Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. R.; Lee, R.; Astill, S.; Farahani, R.; Wilson, P. S.; Mohammed, F.

2014-12-01

Due to recent large tsunami events (e.g., Chile 2010 and Japan 2011), the insurance industry is very aware of the importance of managing its exposure to tsunami risk. There are currently few tools available to help establish policies for managing and pricing tsunami risk globally. As a starting point and to help address this issue, Risk Management Solutions Inc. (RMS) is developing a global suite of tsunami inundation footprints. This dataset will include both representations of historical events as well as a series of M9 scenarios on subductions zones that have not historical generated mega earthquakes. The latter set is included to address concerns about the completeness of the historical record for mega earthquakes. This concern stems from the fact that the Tohoku Japan earthquake was considerably larger than had been observed in the historical record. Characterizing the source and rupture pattern for the subduction zones without historical events is a poorly constrained process. In many case, the subduction zones can be segmented based on changes in the characteristics of the subducting slab or major ridge systems. For this project, the unit sources from the NOAA propagation database are utilized to leverage the basin wide modeling included in this dataset. The length of the rupture is characterized based on subduction zone segmentation and the slip per unit source can be determined based on the event magnitude (i.e., M9) and moment balancing. As these events have not occurred historically, there is little to constrain the slip distribution. Sensitivity tests on the potential rupture pattern have been undertaken comparing uniform slip to higher shallow slip and tapered slip models. Subduction zones examined include the Makran Trench, the Lesser Antilles and the Hikurangi Trench. The ultimate goal is to create a series of tsunami footprints to help insurers understand their exposures at risk to tsunami inundation around the world.

Building a risk-targeted regional seismic hazard model for South-East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woessner, J.; Nyst, M.; Seyhan, E.

2015-12-01

The last decade has tragically shown the social and economic vulnerability of countries in South-East Asia to earthquake hazard and risk. While many disaster mitigation programs and initiatives to improve societal earthquake resilience are under way with the focus on saving lives and livelihoods, the risk management sector is challenged to develop appropriate models to cope with the economic consequences and impact on the insurance business. We present the source model and ground motions model components suitable for a South-East Asia earthquake risk model covering Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Indochine countries. The source model builds upon refined modelling approaches to characterize 1) seismic activity from geologic and geodetic data on crustal faults and 2) along the interface of subduction zones and within the slabs and 3) earthquakes not occurring on mapped fault structures. We elaborate on building a self-consistent rate model for the hazardous crustal fault systems (e.g. Sumatra fault zone, Philippine fault zone) as well as the subduction zones, showcase some characteristics and sensitivities due to existing uncertainties in the rate and hazard space using a well selected suite of ground motion prediction equations. Finally, we analyze the source model by quantifying the contribution by source type (e.g., subduction zone, crustal fault) to typical risk metrics (e.g.,return period losses, average annual loss) and reviewing their relative impact on various lines of businesses.

Monochromatic body waves excited by great subduction zone earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ihmlé, Pierre F.; Madariaga, Raúl

Large quasi-monochromatic body waves were excited by the 1995 Chile Mw=8.1 and by the 1994 Kurile Mw=8.3 events. They are observed on vertical/radial component seismograms following the direct P and Pdiff arrivals, at all azimuths. We devise a slant stack algorithm to characterize the source of the oscillations. This technique aims at locating near-source isotropic scatterers using broadband data from global networks. For both events, we find that the oscillations emanate from the trench. We show that these monochromatic waves are due to localized oscillations of the water column. Their period corresponds to the gravest ID mode of a water layer for vertically traveling compressional waves. We suggest that these monochromatic body waves may yield additional constraints on the source process of great subduction zone earthquakes.

Joint the active source and passive source seismic to research the fine crustal structure of the Lushan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Q.; Yu, C.

2017-12-01

On April 20, 2013, Ms7.0 strong earthquake (Lushan earthquake) occurred in Lanshan County Ya'an City, Sichuan Province. It is another earthquake that occurred in the Longmenshan fault zone after the Wenchuan earthquake. However, there is still no conclusive conclusion in relationship between the fine structure of the Lushan area and triggering seismic fault . In this study, the crustal structure, the shallow structure and the hidden faults and the focal mechanism of the Lushan earthquake were analyzed by using the deep seismic reflection profile and the broadband seismic array data. Combined with the surface geological information, the structure and fracture cause of the Lishan earthquake were discussed.We have synthetic analyzed the seismic precursors, fine locating, focal mechanism analysis and time-tomographic imaging of the broadband seismic data before and after the earthquake in Lushan earthquake, and obtained the seismic distribution, the focal mechanism and the crustal fine structure in the Lushan area. And we use these results to detailed interpreted the deep reflection seismic section of the Lushan earthquake zone.The results show that the crust of the Lushan area is characterized by a distinct structure of upper crust with thickness about 14.75km. The nature of the faults is inferred to be thrusting in the region due to the pushing of the crustal material of the Tibetan plateau into the southeast part of the rigid Sichuan basin. The shuangshi-Dachuan fault stretches from the surface to the deep crust at a low angle, and is dominated by thrusting in a form of imbricate structure with small-scale faults nearby. Whereas the Guangyuan-Dayi fault is a positive flower structure with a listric shape, consisting of six branches. Its movement is dominated by thrusting with gentle horizontal slip.

High-frequency seismic signals associated with glacial earthquakes in Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olsen, K.; Nettles, M.

2017-12-01

Glacial earthquakes are magnitude 5 seismic events generated by iceberg calving at marine-terminating glaciers. They are characterized by teleseismically detectable signals at 35-150 seconds period that arise from the rotation and capsize of gigaton-sized icebergs (e.g., Ekström et al., 2003; Murray et al., 2015). Questions persist regarding the details of this calving process, including whether there are characteristic precursory events such as ice slumps or pervasive crevasse opening before an iceberg rotates away from the glacier. We investigate the high-frequency seismic signals produced before, during, and after glacial earthquakes. We analyze a set of 94 glacial earthquakes that occurred at three of Greenland's major glaciers, Jakobshavn Isbræ, Helheim Glacier, and Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier, from 2001 - 2013. We employ data from the GLISN network of broadband seismometers around Greenland and from short-term seismic deployments located close to the glaciers. These data are bandpass filtered to 3 - 10 Hz and trimmed to one-hour windows surrounding known glacial earthquakes. We observe elevated amplitudes of the 3 - 10 Hz signal for 500 - 1500 seconds spanning the time of each glacial earthquake. These durations are long compared to the 60 second glacial-earthquake source. In the majority of cases we observe an increase in the amplitude of the 3 - 10 Hz signal 200 - 600 seconds before the centroid time of the glacial earthquake and sustained high amplitudes for up to 800 seconds after. In some cases, high-amplitude energy in the 3 - 10 Hz band precedes elevated amplitudes in the 35 - 150 s band by 300 seconds. We explore possible causes for these high-frequency signals, and discuss implications for improving understanding of the glacial-earthquake source.

Source and Aftershock Analysis of a Large Deep Earthquake in the Tonga Flat Slab

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, C.; Wiens, D. A.; Warren, L. M.

2013-12-01

The 9 November 2009 (Mw 7.3) deep focus earthquake (depth = 591 km) occurred in the Tonga flat slab region, which is characterized by limited seismicity but has been imaged as a flat slab in tomographic imaging studies. In addition, this earthquake occurred immediately beneath the largest of the Fiji Islands and was well recorded by a temporary array of 16 broadband seismographs installed in Fiji and Tonga, providing an excellent opportunity to study the source mechanism of a deep earthquake in a partially aseismic flat slab region. We determine the positions of main shock hypocenter, its aftershocks and moment release subevents relative to the background seismicity using a hypocentroidal decomposition relative relocation method. We also investigate the rupture directivity by measuring the variation of rupture durations at different azimuth [e.g., Warren and Silver, 2006]. Arrival times picked from the local seismic stations together with teleseismic arrival times from the International Seismological Centre (ISC) are used for the relocation. Teleseismic waveforms are used for directivity study. Preliminary results show this entire region is relatively aseismic, with diffuse background seismicity distributed between 550-670 km. The main shock happened in a previously aseismic region, with only 1 small earthquake within 50 km during 1980-2012. 11 aftershocks large enough for good locations all occurred within the first 24 hours following the earthquake. The aftershock zone extends about 80 km from NW to SE, covering a much larger area than the mainshock rupture. The aftershock distribution does not correspond to the main shock fault plane, unlike the 1994 March 9 (Mw 7.6) Fiji-Tonga earthquake in the steeply dipping, highly seismic part of the Tonga slab. Mainshock subevent locations suggest a sub-horizontal SE-NW rupture direction. However, the directivity study shows a complicated rupture process which could not be solved with simple rupture assumption. We will present the result of this example earthquake and some other deep earthquakes at the fall meeting. Warren, L. M., and P. G. Silver (2006), Measurement of differential rupture durations as constraints on the source finiteness of deep earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., 111, B06304, doi:10.1029/2005JB004001.

Real-time detection and characterization of nuclear explosion using broadband analyses of regional seismic stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prastowo, T.; Madlazim

2018-01-01

This preliminary study aims to propose a new method of real-time detection and characterization of nuclear explosions by analyzing broadband seismic waveforms acquired from a network of regional seismic stations. Signal identification generated by a nuclear test was differentiated from natural sources of either earthquakes or other natural seismo-tectonic events by verifying crucial parameters, namely source depth, type of first motion, and P-wave domination of the broadband seismic wavesunder consideration. We examined and analyzed a recently hypothetical nuclear test performed by the North Koreangovernment that occurred on September 3, 2017 as a vital point to study. From spectral analyses, we found that the source of corresponding signals associated with detonations of the latest underground nuclear test was at a much shallower depth below the surface relatively compared with that of natural earthquakes, the suspected nuclear explosions produced compressional waves with radially directed outward from the source for their first motions, and the waves were only dominated by P-components. The results are then discussed in the context of potential uses of the proposed methodology for human-induced disaster early warning system and/or the need of rapid response purposes for minimizing the disaster risks.

SEISMIC SOURCE SCALING AND DISCRIMINATION IN DIVERSE TECTONIC ENVIRONMENTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abercrombie, R E; Mayeda, K; Walter, W R

2007-07-10

The objectives of this study are to improve low-magnitude regional seismic discrimination by performing a thorough investigation of earthquake source scaling using diverse, high-quality datasets from varied tectonic regions. Local-to-regional high-frequency discrimination requires an estimate of how earthquakes scale with size. Walter and Taylor (2002) developed the MDAC (Magnitude and Distance Amplitude Corrections) method to empirically account for these effects through regional calibration. The accuracy of these corrections has a direct impact on our ability to identify clandestine explosions in the broad regional areas characterized by low seismicity. Unfortunately our knowledge of source scaling at small magnitudes (i.e., m{sub b}more » < {approx}4.0) is poorly resolved. It is not clear whether different studies obtain contradictory results because they analyze different earthquakes, or because they use different methods. Even in regions that are well studied, such as test sites or areas of high seismicity, we still rely on empirical scaling relations derived from studies taken from half-way around the world at inter-plate regions. We investigate earthquake sources and scaling from different tectonic settings, comparing direct and coda wave analysis methods. We begin by developing and improving the two different methods, and then in future years we will apply them both to each set of earthquakes. Analysis of locally recorded, direct waves from events is intuitively the simplest way of obtaining accurate source parameters, as these waves have been least affected by travel through the earth. But there are only a limited number of earthquakes that are recorded locally, by sufficient stations to give good azimuthal coverage, and have very closely located smaller earthquakes that can be used as an empirical Green's function (EGF) to remove path effects. In contrast, coda waves average radiation from all directions so single-station records should be adequate, and previous work suggests that the requirements for the EGF event are much less stringent. We can study more earthquakes using the coda-wave methods, while using direct wave methods for the best recorded subset of events so as to investigate any differences between the results of the two approaches. Finding 'perfect' EGF events for direct wave analysis is difficult, as is ascertaining the quality of a particular EGF event. We develop a multi-taper method to obtain time-domain source-time-functions by frequency division. If an earthquake and EGF event pair are able to produce a clear, time-domain source pulse then we accept the EGF event. We then model the spectral (amplitude) ratio to determine source parameters from both direct P and S waves. We use the well-recorded sequence of aftershocks of the M5 Au Sable Forks, NY, earthquake to test the method and also to obtain some of the first accurate source parameters for small earthquakes in eastern North America. We find that the stress drops are high, confirming previous work suggesting that intraplate continental earthquakes have higher stress drops than events at plate boundaries. We simplify and improve the coda wave analysis method by calculating spectral ratios between different sized earthquakes. We first compare spectral ratio performance between local and near-regional S and coda waves in the San Francisco Bay region for moderate-sized events. The average spectral ratio standard deviations using coda are {approx}0.05 to 0.12, roughly a factor of 3 smaller than direct S-waves for 0.2 < f < 15.0 Hz. Also, direct wave analysis requires collocated pairs of earthquakes whereas the event-pairs (Green's function and target events) can be separated by {approx}25 km for coda amplitudes without any appreciable degradation. We then apply coda spectral ratio method to the 1999 Hector Mine mainshock (M{sub w} 7.0, Mojave Desert) and its larger aftershocks. We observe a clear departure from self-similarity, consistent with previous studies using similar regional datasets.« less

Lake sediment records as earthquake catalogues: A compilation from Swiss lakes - Limitations and possibilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kremer, Katrina; Reusch, Anna; Wirth, Stefanie B.; Anselmetti, Flavio S.; Girardclos, Stéphanie; Strasser, Michael

2016-04-01

Intraplate settings are characterized by low deformation rates and recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes that often exceed the time span covered by instrumental records. Switzerland, as an example for such settings, shows a low instrumentally recorded seismicity, in contrast to strong earthquakes (e.g. 1356 Basel earthquake, Mw=6.6 and 1601 Unterwalden earthquake, Mw=5.9) mentioned in the historical archives. As such long recurrence rates do not allow for instrumental identification of earthquake sources of these strong events, and as intense geomorphologic alterations prevent preservation of surface expressions of faults, the knowledge of active faults is very limited. Lake sediments are sensitive to seismic shaking and thus, can be used to extend the regional earthquake catalogue if the sedimentary deposits or deformation structures can be linked to an earthquake. Single lake records allow estimating local intensities of shaking while multiple lake records can furthermore be used to compare temporal and spatial distribution of earthquakes. In this study, we compile a large dataset of dated sedimentary event deposits recorded in Swiss lakes available from peer-reviewed publications and unpublished master theses. We combine these data in order to detect large prehistoric regional earthquake events or periods of intense shaking that might have affected multiple lake settings. In a second step, using empirical seismic attenuation equations, we test if lake records can be used to reconstruct magnitudes and epicentres of identified earthquakes.

Seismic hazard analysis with PSHA method in four cities in Java.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elistyawati, Y.; Palupi, I. R.; Suharsono

2016-11-01

In this study the tectonic earthquakes was observed through the peak ground acceleration through the PSHA method by dividing the area of the earthquake source. This study applied the earthquake data from 1965 - 2015 that has been analyzed the completeness of the data, location research was the entire Java with stressed in four large cities prone to earthquakes. The results were found to be a hazard map with a return period of 500 years, 2500 years return period, and the hazard curve were four major cities (Jakarta, Bandung, Yogyakarta, and the city of Banyuwangi). Results Java PGA hazard map 500 years had a peak ground acceleration within 0 g ≥ 0.5 g, while the return period of 2500 years had a value of 0 to ≥ 0.8 g. While, the PGA hazard curves on the city's most influential source of the earthquake was from sources such as fault Cimandiri backgroud, for the city of Bandung earthquake sources that influence the seismic source fault dent background form. In other side, the city of Yogyakarta earthquake hazard curve of the most influential was the source of the earthquake background of the Opak fault, and the most influential hazard curve of Banyuwangi earthquake was the source of Java and Sumba megatruts earthquake.

Stress analysis of the Mw 7.4 Armería, Colima, Mexico earthquake of 22 January 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vargas-Bracamontes, D.; Nunez-Cornu, F. J.

2012-12-01

On 22 January 2003 a shallow Mw 7.4 earthquake occurred off the Pacific coast of the state of Colima. This event struck near the towns of Tecomán and Armería in western Mexico where a diffuse triple junction between the North American, Cocos and Rivera plates makes the local tectonic setting highly complex. This earthquake is the largest during the twenty-first century in the area. Some seismic studies of this earthquake indicate that this event occurred on a continental intraplate reverse fault, suggesting that the shock and its aftershocks represent partial accommodation of deformation in the continental crust caused by oblique subduction. In contrast, other works propose that the 2003 Armería earthquake was due to faulting along the subduction interface between the Rivera and North American Plates. We assess the suggested sources of this earthquake in terms of stress models that consider the controversial geometrical features that characterize this tectonic area. Also, we explore the implications for seismic hazard that this event could have caused in the Colima region.

Imaging different components of a tectonic tremor sequence in southwestern Japan using an automatic statistical detection and location method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poiata, Natalia; Vilotte, Jean-Pierre; Bernard, Pascal; Satriano, Claudio; Obara, Kazushige

2018-06-01

In this study, we demonstrate the capability of an automatic network-based detection and location method to extract and analyse different components of tectonic tremor activity by analysing a 9-day energetic tectonic tremor sequence occurring at the downdip extension of the subducting slab in southwestern Japan. The applied method exploits the coherency of multiscale, frequency-selective characteristics of non-stationary signals recorded across the seismic network. Use of different characteristic functions, in the signal processing step of the method, allows to extract and locate the sources of short-duration impulsive signal transients associated with low-frequency earthquakes and of longer-duration energy transients during the tectonic tremor sequence. Frequency-dependent characteristic functions, based on higher-order statistics' properties of the seismic signals, are used for the detection and location of low-frequency earthquakes. This allows extracting a more complete (˜6.5 times more events) and time-resolved catalogue of low-frequency earthquakes than the routine catalogue provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency. As such, this catalogue allows resolving the space-time evolution of the low-frequency earthquakes activity in great detail, unravelling spatial and temporal clustering, modulation in response to tide, and different scales of space-time migration patterns. In the second part of the study, the detection and source location of longer-duration signal energy transients within the tectonic tremor sequence is performed using characteristic functions built from smoothed frequency-dependent energy envelopes. This leads to a catalogue of longer-duration energy sources during the tectonic tremor sequence, characterized by their durations and 3-D spatial likelihood maps of the energy-release source regions. The summary 3-D likelihood map for the 9-day tectonic tremor sequence, built from this catalogue, exhibits an along-strike spatial segmentation of the long-duration energy-release regions, matching the large-scale clustering features evidenced from the low-frequency earthquake's activity analysis. Further examination of the two catalogues showed that the extracted short-duration low-frequency earthquakes activity coincides in space, within about 10-15 km distance, with the longer-duration energy sources during the tectonic tremor sequence. This observation provides a potential constraint on the size of the longer-duration energy-radiating source region in relation with the clustering of low-frequency earthquakes activity during the analysed tectonic tremor sequence. We show that advanced statistical network-based methods offer new capabilities for automatic high-resolution detection, location and monitoring of different scale-components of tectonic tremor activity, enriching existing slow earthquakes catalogues. Systematic application of such methods to large continuous data sets will allow imaging the slow transient seismic energy-release activity at higher resolution, and therefore, provide new insights into the underlying multiscale mechanisms of slow earthquakes generation.

Imaging different components of a tectonic tremor sequence in southwestern Japan using an automatic statistical detection and location method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poiata, Natalia; Vilotte, Jean-Pierre; Bernard, Pascal; Satriano, Claudio; Obara, Kazushige

2018-02-01

In this study, we demonstrate the capability of an automatic network-based detection and location method to extract and analyse different components of tectonic tremor activity by analysing a 9-day energetic tectonic tremor sequence occurring at the down-dip extension of the subducting slab in southwestern Japan. The applied method exploits the coherency of multi-scale, frequency-selective characteristics of non-stationary signals recorded across the seismic network. Use of different characteristic functions, in the signal processing step of the method, allows to extract and locate the sources of short-duration impulsive signal transients associated with low-frequency earthquakes and of longer-duration energy transients during the tectonic tremor sequence. Frequency-dependent characteristic functions, based on higher-order statistics' properties of the seismic signals, are used for the detection and location of low-frequency earthquakes. This allows extracting a more complete (˜6.5 times more events) and time-resolved catalogue of low-frequency earthquakes than the routine catalogue provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency. As such, this catalogue allows resolving the space-time evolution of the low-frequency earthquakes activity in great detail, unravelling spatial and temporal clustering, modulation in response to tide, and different scales of space-time migration patterns. In the second part of the study, the detection and source location of longer-duration signal energy transients within the tectonic tremor sequence is performed using characteristic functions built from smoothed frequency-dependent energy envelopes. This leads to a catalogue of longer-duration energy sources during the tectonic tremor sequence, characterized by their durations and 3-D spatial likelihood maps of the energy-release source regions. The summary 3-D likelihood map for the 9-day tectonic tremor sequence, built from this catalogue, exhibits an along-strike spatial segmentation of the long-duration energy-release regions, matching the large-scale clustering features evidenced from the low-frequency earthquake's activity analysis. Further examination of the two catalogues showed that the extracted short-duration low-frequency earthquakes activity coincides in space, within about 10-15 km distance, with the longer-duration energy sources during the tectonic tremor sequence. This observation provides a potential constraint on the size of the longer-duration energy-radiating source region in relation with the clustering of low-frequency earthquakes activity during the analysed tectonic tremor sequence. We show that advanced statistical network-based methods offer new capabilities for automatic high-resolution detection, location and monitoring of different scale-components of tectonic tremor activity, enriching existing slow earthquakes catalogues. Systematic application of such methods to large continuous data sets will allow imaging the slow transient seismic energy-release activity at higher resolution, and therefore, provide new insights into the underlying multi-scale mechanisms of slow earthquakes generation.

Tectonic position and geological manifestations of the Mogod (Central Mongolia), January 5, 1967, earthquake (a view after 40 years)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rogozhin, E.A.; Imaev, V.S.; Smekalin, O.P.; Schwartz, D.P.

2008-01-01

The earthquake source, reaching the surface in the form of an extended system of faults, encompassed the N-S and NW-SE planes of two large faults near their juncture zone. A revised seismotectonic study of the system of coseismic ruptures performed after many years revealed a complex structure of primary coseismic ruptures in the juncture area of fault branches of different directions. In addition to the two major faults, the juncture zone consists of intersecting or parallel branches of both structural directions. The trench study and detailed mapping of the shallow structure of the seismic rupture characterizes it as a right-lateral-thrust fault on the N-S branch and a strike-slip-reverse fault on the NW-SE branch. Results of our paleoseismogeological study indicate that equally strong earthquakes are likely to have occurred in the same seismic source in the past (about 8000 and 160 years ago). ?? Pleiades Publishing, Ltd. 2008.

Development of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenarios for the city of Tehran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zolfaghari, M. R.; Peyghaleh, E.

2016-01-01

This paper presents the methodology and practical example for the application of optimization process to select earthquake scenarios which best represent probabilistic earthquake hazard in a given region. The method is based on simulation of a large dataset of potential earthquakes, representing the long-term seismotectonic characteristics in a given region. The simulation process uses Monte-Carlo simulation and regional seismogenic source parameters to generate a synthetic earthquake catalogue consisting of a large number of earthquakes, each characterized with magnitude, location, focal depth and fault characteristics. Such catalogue provides full distributions of events in time, space and size; however, demands large computation power when is used for risk assessment, particularly when other sources of uncertainties are involved in the process. To reduce the number of selected earthquake scenarios, a mixed-integer linear program formulation is developed in this study. This approach results in reduced set of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenario, while maintaining shape of hazard curves and full probabilistic picture by minimizing the error between hazard curves driven by full and reduced sets of synthetic earthquake scenarios. To test the model, the regional seismotectonic and seismogenic characteristics of northern Iran are used to simulate a set of 10,000-year worth of events consisting of some 84,000 earthquakes. The optimization model is then performed multiple times with various input data, taking into account probabilistic seismic hazard for Tehran city as the main constrains. The sensitivity of the selected scenarios to the user-specified site/return period error-weight is also assessed. The methodology could enhance run time process for full probabilistic earthquake studies like seismic hazard and risk assessment. The reduced set is the representative of the contributions of all possible earthquakes; however, it requires far less computation power. The authors have used this approach for risk assessment towards identification of effectiveness-profitability of risk mitigation measures, using optimization model for resource allocation. Based on the error-computation trade-off, 62-earthquake scenarios are chosen to be used for this purpose.

Methodology to determine the parameters of historical earthquakes in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jian; Lin, Guoliang; Zhang, Zhe

2017-12-01

China is one of the countries with the longest cultural tradition. Meanwhile, China has been suffering very heavy earthquake disasters; so, there are abundant earthquake recordings. In this paper, we try to sketch out historical earthquake sources and research achievements in China. We will introduce some basic information about the collections of historical earthquake sources, establishing intensity scale and the editions of historical earthquake catalogues. Spatial-temporal and magnitude distributions of historical earthquake are analyzed briefly. Besides traditional methods, we also illustrate a new approach to amend the parameters of historical earthquakes or even identify candidate zones for large historical or palaeo-earthquakes. In the new method, a relationship between instrumentally recorded small earthquakes and strong historical earthquakes is built up. Abundant historical earthquake sources and the achievements of historical earthquake research in China are of valuable cultural heritage in the world.

Suitability of rapid energy magnitude determinations for emergency response purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Giacomo, Domenico; Parolai, Stefano; Bormann, Peter; Grosser, Helmut; Saul, Joachim; Wang, Rongjiang; Zschau, Jochen

2010-01-01

It is common practice in the seismological community to use, especially for large earthquakes, the moment magnitude Mw as a unique magnitude parameter to evaluate the earthquake's damage potential. However, as a static measure of earthquake size, Mw does not provide direct information about the released seismic wave energy and its high frequency content, which is the more interesting information both for engineering purposes and for a rapid assessment of the earthquake's shaking potential. Therefore, we recommend to provide to disaster management organizations besides Mw also sufficiently accurate energy magnitude determinations as soon as possible after large earthquakes. We developed and extensively tested a rapid method for calculating the energy magnitude Me within about 10-15 min after an earthquake's occurrence. The method is based on pre-calculated spectral amplitude decay functions obtained from numerical simulations of Green's functions. After empirical validation, the procedure has been applied offline to a large data set of 767 shallow earthquakes that have been grouped according to their type of mechanism (strike-slip, normal faulting, thrust faulting, etc.). The suitability of the proposed approach is discussed by comparing our rapid Me estimates with Mw published by GCMT as well as with Mw and Me reported by the USGS. Mw is on average slightly larger than our Me for all types of mechanisms. No clear dependence on source mechanism is observed for our Me estimates. In contrast, Me from the USGS is generally larger than Mw for strike-slip earthquakes and generally smaller for the other source types. For ~67 per cent of the event data set our Me differs <= +/-0.3 magnitude units (m.u.) from the respective Me values published by the USGS. However, larger discrepancies (up to 0.8 m.u.) may occur for strike-slip events. A reason of that may be the overcorrection of the energy flux applied by the USGS for this type of earthquakes. We follow the original definition of magnitude scales, which does not apply a priori mechanism corrections to measured amplitudes, also since reliable fault-plane solutions are hardly available within 10-15 min after the earthquake origin time. Notable is that our uncorrected Me data show a better linear correlation and less scatter with respect to Mw than Me of the USGS. Finally, by analysing the recordings of representative recent pairs of strong and great earthquakes, we emphasize the importance of combining Mw and Me in the rapid characterization of the seismic source. They are related to different aspects of the source and may differ occasionally even more than 1 m.u. This highlights the usefulness and importance of providing these two magnitude estimates together for a better assessment of an earthquake's shaking potential and/or tsunamigenic potential.

Augmenting Onshore GPS Displacements with Offshore Observations to Improve Slip Characterization for Cascadia Subduction Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saunders, J. K.; Haase, J. S.

2017-12-01

The rupture location of a Mw 8 megathrust earthquake can dramatically change the near-source tsunami impact, where a shallow earthquake can produce a disproportionally large tsunami for its magnitude. Because the locking pattern of the shallow Cascadia megathrust is unconstrained due to the lack of widespread seafloor geodetic observations, near-source tsunami early warning systems need to be able to identify shallow, near-trench earthquakes. Onshore GPS displacements provide low frequency ground motions and coseismic offsets for characterizing tsunamigenic earthquakes, however the one-sided distribution of data may not be able to uniquely determine the rupture region. We examine how augmenting the current real-time GPS network in Cascadia with different offshore station configurations improves static slip inversion solutions for Mw 8 earthquakes at different rupture depths. Two offshore coseismic data types are tested in this study: vertical-only, which would be available using existing technology for bottom pressure sensors, and all-component, which could be achieved by combining pressure sensors with real-time GPS-Acoustic observations. We find that both types of offshore data better constrain the rupture region for a shallow earthquake compared to onshore data alone when offshore stations are located above the rupture. However, inversions using vertical-only offshore data tend to underestimate the amount of slip for a shallow rupture, which we show underestimates the tsunami impact. Including offshore horizontal coseismic data into the inversions improves the slip solutions for a given offshore station configuration, especially in terms of maximum slip. This suggests that while real-time GPS-Acoustic sensors may have a long development timeline, they will have more impact for inversion-based tsunami early warning systems than bottom pressure sensors. We also conduct sensitivity studies using kinematic models with varying rupture speeds and rise times as a proxy for expected rigidity changes with depth along the megathrust. We find distinguishing features in displacement waveforms that can be used to infer primary rupture region. We discuss how kinematic inversion methods that use these characteristics in high-rate GPS data could be applied to the Cascadia subduction zone.

Widespread ground motion distribution caused by rupture directivity during the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koketsu, Kazuki; Miyake, Hiroe; Guo, Yujia; Kobayashi, Hiroaki; Masuda, Tetsu; Davuluri, Srinagesh; Bhattarai, Mukunda; Adhikari, Lok Bijaya; Sapkota, Soma Nath

2016-06-01

The ground motion and damage caused by the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake can be characterized by their widespread distributions to the east. Evidence from strong ground motions, regional acceleration duration, and teleseismic waveforms indicate that rupture directivity contributed significantly to these distributions. This phenomenon has been thought to occur only if a strike-slip or dip-slip rupture propagates to a site in the along-strike or updip direction, respectively. However, even though the earthquake was a dip-slip faulting event and its source fault strike was nearly eastward, evidence for rupture directivity is found in the eastward direction. Here, we explore the reasons for this apparent inconsistency by performing a joint source inversion of seismic and geodetic datasets, and conducting ground motion simulations. The results indicate that the earthquake occurred on the underthrusting Indian lithosphere, with a low dip angle, and that the fault rupture propagated in the along-strike direction at a velocity just slightly below the S-wave velocity. This low dip angle and fast rupture velocity produced rupture directivity in the along-strike direction, which caused widespread ground motion distribution and significant damage extending far eastwards, from central Nepal to Mount Everest.

A N-S fossil transform fault reactivated by the March 2, 2016 Mw7.8 southwest of Sumatra, Indonesia earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, H.; van der Lee, S.

2016-12-01

Warton Basin (WB) is characterized by N-S striking fossil transform faults and E-W trending extinct ridges. The 2016 Mw7.8 southwest of Sumatra earthquake, nearby the WB's center, was first imaged by back-projecting P-waves from three regional seismic networks in Europn, Japan, and Australia. Next, the rupture direction of the earthquake was further determined using the rupture directivity analysis to P-waves from the global seismic network (GSN). Finally, we inverting these GSN waveforms on a defined N-S striking vertical fault for a kinematic source model. The results show that the earthquake reactivates a 190 degree N-S striking vertical fossil transform fault and asymmetrically bilaterally ruptures a 65 km by 30 km asperity over 35 s. Specifically, the earthquake first bilaterally ruptures northward and southward at a speed of 1.0 km/s over the first 12 s, and then mainly rupture northward at a speed of 1.6 km/s. Compared with two previous M≥7.8 WB earthquakes, including the 2000 southern WB earthquake and 2012 Mw8.6 Sumatra earthquake, the lower seismic energy radiation efficiency and slower rupture velicity of the 2016 earthquake indicate the rupture of the earthquake is probably controlled by the warmer ambient slab and tectonic stress regime.

Forecasting in Complex Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.

2014-12-01

Complex nonlinear systems are typically characterized by many degrees of freedom, as well as interactions between the elements. Interesting examples can be found in the areas of earthquakes and finance. In these two systems, fat tails play an important role in the statistical dynamics. For earthquake systems, the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency is applicable, whereas for daily returns for the securities in the financial markets are known to be characterized by leptokurtotic statistics in which the tails are power law. Very large fluctuations are present in both systems. In earthquake systems, one has the example of great earthquakes such as the M9.1, March 11, 2011 Tohoku event. In financial systems, one has the example of the market crash of October 19, 1987. Both were largely unexpected events that severely impacted the earth and financial systems systemically. Other examples include the M9.3 Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004, and the Great Recession which began with the fall of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 12, 2013. Forecasting the occurrence of these damaging events has great societal importance. In recent years, national funding agencies in a variety of countries have emphasized the importance of societal relevance in research, and in particular, the goal of improved forecasting technology. Previous work has shown that both earthquakes and financial crashes can be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model. These metastable systems are characterized by fat tail statistics near the classical spinodal. Correlations in these systems can grow and recede, but do not imply causation, a common source of misunderstanding. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In this talk, we describe the basic phenomenology of these systems and emphasize their similarities and differences. We also consider the problem of forecast validation and verification. In both of these systems, we show that small event counts (the natural time domain) is an important component of a forecast system.

Depth varying rupture properties during the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, Han; Simons, Mark; Duputel, Zacharie; Jiang, Junle; Fielding, Eric; Liang, Cunren; Owen, Susan; Moore, Angelyn; Riel, Bryan; Ampuero, Jean Paul; Samsonov, Sergey V.

2017-09-01

On April 25th 2015, the Mw 7.8 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake ruptured a portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust underlying Kathmandu and surrounding regions. We develop kinematic slip models of the Gorkha earthquake using both a regularized multi-time-window (MTW) approach and an unsmoothed Bayesian formulation, constrained by static and high rate GPS observations, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) offset images, interferometric SAR (InSAR), and teleseismic body wave records. These models indicate that Kathmandu is located near the updip limit of fault slip and approximately 20 km south of the centroid of fault slip. Fault slip propagated unilaterally along-strike in an ESE direction for approximately 140 km with a 60 km cross-strike extent. The deeper portions of the fault are characterized by a larger ratio of high frequency (0.03-0.2 Hz) to low frequency slip than the shallower portions. From both the MTW and Bayesian results, we can resolve depth variations in slip characteristics, with higher slip roughness, higher rupture velocity, longer rise time and higher complexity of subfault source time functions in the deeper extents of the rupture. The depth varying nature of rupture characteristics suggests that the up-dip portions are characterized by relatively continuous rupture, while the down-dip portions may be better characterized by a cascaded rupture. The rupture behavior and the tectonic setting indicate that the earthquake may have ruptured both fully seismically locked and a deeper transitional portions of the collision interface, analogous to what has been seen in major subduction zone earthquakes.

Tsunami simulations of the 1867 Virgin Island earthquake: Constraints on epicenter location and fault parameters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barkan, Roy; ten Brink, Uri S.

2010-01-01

The 18 November 1867 Virgin Island earthquake and the tsunami that closely followed caused considerable loss of life and damage in several places in the northeast Caribbean region. The earthquake was likely a manifestation of the complex tectonic deformation of the Anegada Passage, which cuts across the Antilles island arc between the Virgin Islands and the Lesser Antilles. In this article, we attempt to characterize the 1867 earthquake with respect to fault orientation, rake, dip, fault dimensions, and first tsunami wave propagating phase, using tsunami simulations that employ high-resolution multibeam bathymetry. In addition, we present new geophysical and geological observations from the region of the suggested earthquake source. Results of our tsunami simulations based on relative amplitude comparison limit the earthquake source to be along the northern wall of the Virgin Islands basin, as suggested by Reid and Taber (1920), or on the carbonate platform north of the basin, and not in the Virgin Islands basin, as commonly assumed. The numerical simulations suggest the 1867 fault was striking 120°–135° and had a mixed normal and left-lateral motion. First propagating wave phase analysis suggests a fault striking 300°–315° is also possible. The best-fitting rupture length was found to be relatively small (50 km), probably indicating the earthquake had a moment magnitude of ∼7.2. Detailed multibeam echo sounder surveys of the Anegada Passage bathymetry between St. Croix and St. Thomas reveal a scarp, which cuts the northern wall of the Virgin Islands basin. High-resolution seismic profiles further indicate it to be a reasonable fault candidate. However, the fault orientation and the orientation of other subparallel faults in the area are more compatible with right-lateral motion. For the other possible source region, no clear disruption in the bathymetry or seismic profiles was found on the carbonate platform north of the basin.

SEISMIC SOURCE SCALING AND DISCRIMINATION IN DIVERSE TECTONIC ENVIRONMENTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abercrombie, R E; Mayeda, K; Walter, W R

2008-07-08

The objectives of this study are to improve low-magnitude (concentrating on M2.5-5) regional seismic discrimination by performing a thorough investigation of earthquake source scaling using diverse, high-quality datasets from varied tectonic regions. Local-to-regional high-frequency discrimination requires an estimate of how earthquakes scale with size. Walter and Taylor (2002) developed the MDAC (Magnitude and Distance Amplitude Corrections) method to empirically account for these effects through regional calibration. The accuracy of these corrections has a direct impact on our ability to identify clandestine explosions in the broad regional areas characterized by low seismicity. Unfortunately our knowledge at small magnitudes (i.e., m{sub b}more » < {approx} 4.0) is poorly resolved, and source scaling remains a subject of on-going debate in the earthquake seismology community. Recently there have been a number of empirical studies suggesting scaling of micro-earthquakes is non-self-similar, yet there are an equal number of compelling studies that would suggest otherwise. It is not clear whether different studies obtain different results because they analyze different earthquakes, or because they use different methods. Even in regions that are well studied, such as test sites or areas of high seismicity, we still rely on empirical scaling relations derived from studies taken from half-way around the world at inter-plate regions. We investigate earthquake sources and scaling from different tectonic settings, comparing direct and coda wave analysis methods that both make use of empirical Green's function (EGF) earthquakes to remove path effects. Analysis of locally recorded, direct waves from events is intuitively the simplest way of obtaining accurate source parameters, as these waves have been least affected by travel through the earth. But finding well recorded earthquakes with 'perfect' EGF events for direct wave analysis is difficult, limits the number of earthquakes that can be studied. We begin with closely-located, well-correlated earthquakes. We use a multi-taper method to obtain time-domain source-time-functions by frequency division. We only accept an earthquake and EGF pair if they are able to produce a clear, time-domain source pulse. We fit the spectral ratios and perform a grid-search about the preferred parameters to ensure the fits are well constrained. We then model the spectral (amplitude) ratio to determine source parameters from both direct P and S waves. We analyze three clusters of aftershocks from the well-recorded sequence following the M5 Au Sable Forks, NY, earthquake to obtain some of the first accurate source parameters for small earthquakes in eastern North America. Each cluster contains a M{approx}2, and two contain M{approx}3, as well as smaller aftershocks. We find that the corner frequencies and stress drops are high (averaging 100 MPa) confirming previous work suggesting that intraplate continental earthquakes have higher stress drops than events at plate boundaries. We also demonstrate that a scaling breakdown suggested by earlier work is simply an artifact of their more band-limited data. We calculate radiated energy, and find that the ratio of Energy to seismic Moment is also high, around 10{sup -4}. We estimate source parameters for the M5 mainshock using similar methods, but our results are more doubtful because we do not have a EGF event that meets our preferred criteria. The stress drop and energy/moment ratio for the mainshock are slightly higher than for the aftershocks. Our improved, and simplified coda wave analysis method uses spectral ratios (as for the direct waves) but relies on the averaging nature of the coda waves to use EGF events that do not meet the strict criteria of similarity required for the direct wave analysis. We have applied the coda wave spectral ratio method to the 1999 Hector Mine mainshock (M{sub w} 7.0, Mojave Desert) and its larger aftershocks, and also to several sequences in Italy with M{approx}6 mainshocks. The Italian earthquakes have higher stress drops than the Hector Mine sequence, but lower than Au Sable Forks. These results show a departure from self-similarity, consistent with previous studies using similar regional datasets. The larger earthquakes have higher stress drops and energy/moment ratios. We perform a preliminary comparison of the two methods using the M5 Au Sable Forks earthquake. Both methods give very consistent results, and we are applying the comparison to further events.« less

Infrasonic and seismic signals from earthquakes and explosions observed with Plostina seismo-acoustic array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghica, D.; Ionescu, C.

2012-04-01

Plostina seismo-acoustic array has been recently deployed by the National Institute for Earth Physics in the central part of Romania, near the Vrancea epicentral area. The array has a 2.5 km aperture and consists of 7 seismic sites (PLOR) and 7 collocated infrasound instruments (IPLOR). The array is being used to assess the importance of collocated seismic and acoustic sensors for the purposes of (1) seismic monitoring of the local and regional events, and (2) acoustic measurement, consisting of detection of the infrasound events (explosions, mine and quarry blasts, earthquakes, aircraft etc.). This paper focuses on characterization of infrasonic and seismic signals from the earthquakes and explosions (accidental and mining type). Two Vrancea earthquakes with magnitude above 5.0 were selected to this study: one occurred on 1st of May 2011 (MD = 5.3, h = 146 km), and the other one, on 4th October 2011 (MD = 5.2, h = 142 km). The infrasonic signals from the earthquakes have the appearance of the vertical component of seismic signals. Because the mechanism of the infrasonic wave formation is the coupling of seismic waves with the atmosphere, trace velocity values for such signals are compatible with the characteristics of the various seismic phases observed with PLOR array. The study evaluates and characterizes, as well, infrasound and seismic data recorded from the explosion caused by the military accident produced at Evangelos Florakis Naval Base, in Cyprus, on 11th July 2011. Additionally, seismo-acoustic signals presumed to be related to strong mine and quarry blasts were investigated. Ground truth of mine observations provides validation of this interpretation. The combined seismo-acoustic analysis uses two types of detectors for signal identification: one is the automatic detector DFX-PMCC, applied for infrasound detection and characterization, while the other one, which is used for seismic data, is based on array processing techniques (beamforming and frequency-wave number analysis). Spectrograms of the recorded infrasonic and seismic data were examined, showing that an earthquake produces acoustic signals with a high energy in the 1 to 5 Hz frequency range, while, for the explosion, this range lays below 0.6 Hz. Using the combined analysis of the seismic and acoustic data, Plostina array can greatly enhance the event detection and localization in the region. The analysis can be, as well, particularly important in identifying sources of industrial explosion, and therefore, in monitoring of the hazard created both by earthquakes and anthropogenic sources of pollution (chemical factories, nuclear and power plants, refineries, mines).

Persistency of rupture directivity in moderate-magnitude earthquakes in Italy: Implications for seismic hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rovelli, A.; Calderoni, G.

2012-12-01

A simple method based on the EGF deconvolution in the frequency domain is applied to detect the occurrence of unilateral ruptures in recent damaging earthquakes in Italy. The spectral ratio between event pairs with different magnitudes at individual stations shows large azimuthal variations above corner frequency when the target event is affected by source directivity and the EGF is not or vice versa. The analysis is applied to seismograms and accelerograms recorded during the seismic sequence following the 20 May 2012, Mw 5.6 main shock in Emilia, northern Italy, the 6 April 2009, Mw 6.1 earthquake of L'Aquila, central Italy, and the 26 September 1997, Mw 5.7 and 6.0 shocks in Umbria-Marche, central Italy. Events of each seismic sequence are selected as having consistent focal mechanisms, and the station selection obeys to the constraint of a similar source-to-receiver path for the event pairs. The analyzed data set of L'Aquila consists of 962 broad-band seismograms relative to 69 normal-faulting earthquakes (3.3 ≤ MW ≤ 6.1, according to Herrmann et al., 2011), stations are selected in the distance range 100 to 250 km to minimize differences in propagation paths. The seismogram analysis reveals that a strong along-strike (toward SE) source directivity characterized all of the three Mw > 5.0 shocks. Source directivity was also persistent up to the smallest magnitudes: 65% of earthquakes under study showed evidence of directivity toward SE whereas only one (Mw 3.7) event showed directivity in the opposite direction. Also the Mw 5.6 main shock of the 20 May 2012 in Emilia result in large azimuthal spectral variations indicating unilateral rupture propagation toward SE. According to the reconstructed geometry of the trust-fault plane, the inferred directivity direction suggests top-down rupture propagation. The analysis over the Emilia aftershock sequence is in progress. The third seismic sequence, dated 1997-1998, occurred in the northern Apennines and, similarly to L'Aquila faults, was characterized by normal-faulting earthquakes with strike substantially parallel to the Apennine trend. Although the amount of data is not as abundant as for the most recent earthquakes, the available data were already object of previous studies indicating unilateral rupture propagation in several of the strongest (5.5 < Mw < 6.0) shocks. We show that the effect of directivity is particularly significant in intermontane basins where long-period (T > 1 sec) ground motions are amplified by soft sediments and the combination of local amplification with source directivity causes exceedance of spectral ordinates at those periods up to more than 2 standard deviations from the expected values of commonly used GMPEs for soft sites. These results arise a concern in terms of seismic hazard because source directivity is found to be recurrent feature in the Apennines. Moreover, the predominant fault strike and intermontane basins are both aligned along the Apennine chain offering a condition potentially favorable to extra-amplifications at periods relevant to seismic risk.

The Source Inversion Validation (SIV) Initiative: A Collaborative Study on Uncertainty Quantification in Earthquake Source Inversions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mai, P. M.; Schorlemmer, D.; Page, M.

2012-04-01

Earthquake source inversions image the spatio-temporal rupture evolution on one or more fault planes using seismic and/or geodetic data. Such studies are critically important for earthquake seismology in general, and for advancing seismic hazard analysis in particular, as they reveal earthquake source complexity and help (i) to investigate earthquake mechanics; (ii) to develop spontaneous dynamic rupture models; (iii) to build models for generating rupture realizations for ground-motion simulations. In applications (i - iii), the underlying finite-fault source models are regarded as "data" (input information), but their uncertainties are essentially unknown. After all, source models are obtained from solving an inherently ill-posed inverse problem to which many a priori assumptions and uncertain observations are applied. The Source Inversion Validation (SIV) project is a collaborative effort to better understand the variability between rupture models for a single earthquake (as manifested in the finite-source rupture model database) and to develop robust uncertainty quantification for earthquake source inversions. The SIV project highlights the need to develop a long-standing and rigorous testing platform to examine the current state-of-the-art in earthquake source inversion, and to develop and test novel source inversion approaches. We will review the current status of the SIV project, and report the findings and conclusions of the recent workshops. We will briefly discuss several source-inversion methods, how they treat uncertainties in data, and assess the posterior model uncertainty. Case studies include initial forward-modeling tests on Green's function calculations, and inversion results for synthetic data from spontaneous dynamic crack-like strike-slip earthquake on steeply dipping fault, embedded in a layered crustal velocity-density structure.

Ground-motion signature of dynamic ruptures on rough faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mai, P. Martin; Galis, Martin; Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.; Vyas, Jagdish C.

2016-04-01

Natural earthquakes occur on faults characterized by large-scale segmentation and small-scale roughness. This multi-scale geometrical complexity controls the dynamic rupture process, and hence strongly affects the radiated seismic waves and near-field shaking. For a fault system with given segmentation, the question arises what are the conditions for producing large-magnitude multi-segment ruptures, as opposed to smaller single-segment events. Similarly, for variable degrees of roughness, ruptures may be arrested prematurely or may break the entire fault. In addition, fault roughness induces rupture incoherence that determines the level of high-frequency radiation. Using HPC-enabled dynamic-rupture simulations, we generate physically self-consistent rough-fault earthquake scenarios (M~6.8) and their associated near-source seismic radiation. Because these computations are too expensive to be conducted routinely for simulation-based seismic hazard assessment, we thrive to develop an effective pseudo-dynamic source characterization that produces (almost) the same ground-motion characteristics. Therefore, we examine how variable degrees of fault roughness affect rupture properties and the seismic wavefield, and develop a planar-fault kinematic source representation that emulates the observed dynamic behaviour. We propose an effective workflow for improved pseudo-dynamic source modelling that incorporates rough-fault effects and its associated high-frequency radiation in broadband ground-motion computation for simulation-based seismic hazard assessment.

Mitigating artifacts in back-projection source imaging with implications for frequency-dependent properties of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Lingsen; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Luo, Yingdi; Wu, Wenbo; Ni, Sidao

2012-12-01

Comparing teleseismic array back-projection source images of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake with results from static and kinematic finite source inversions has revealed little overlap between the regions of high- and low-frequency slip. Motivated by this interesting observation, back-projection studies extended to intermediate frequencies, down to about 0.1 Hz, have suggested that a progressive transition of rupture properties as a function of frequency is observable. Here, by adapting the concept of array response function to non-stationary signals, we demonstrate that the "swimming artifact", a systematic drift resulting from signal non-stationarity, induces significant bias on beamforming back-projection at low frequencies. We introduce a "reference window strategy" into the multitaper-MUSIC back-projection technique and significantly mitigate the "swimming artifact" at high frequencies (1 s to 4 s). At lower frequencies, this modification yields notable, but significantly smaller, artifacts than time-domain stacking. We perform extensive synthetic tests that include a 3D regional velocity model for Japan. We analyze the recordings of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake at the USArray and at the European array at periods from 1 s to 16 s. The migration of the source location as a function of period, regardless of the back-projection methods, has characteristics that are consistent with the expected effect of the "swimming artifact". In particular, the apparent up-dip migration as a function of frequency obtained with the USArray can be explained by the "swimming artifact". This indicates that the most substantial frequency-dependence of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake source occurs at periods longer than 16 s. Thus, low-frequency back-projection needs to be further tested and validated in order to contribute to the characterization of frequency-dependent rupture properties.

Seismic Moment, Seismic Energy, and Source Duration of Slow Earthquakes: Application of Brownian slow earthquake model to three major subduction zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ide, Satoshi; Maury, Julie

2018-04-01

Tectonic tremors, low-frequency earthquakes, very low-frequency earthquakes, and slow slip events are all regarded as components of broadband slow earthquakes, which can be modeled as a stochastic process using Brownian motion. Here we show that the Brownian slow earthquake model provides theoretical relationships among the seismic moment, seismic energy, and source duration of slow earthquakes and that this model explains various estimates of these quantities in three major subduction zones: Japan, Cascadia, and Mexico. While the estimates for these three regions are similar at the seismological frequencies, the seismic moment rates are significantly different in the geodetic observation. This difference is ascribed to the difference in the characteristic times of the Brownian slow earthquake model, which is controlled by the width of the source area. We also show that the model can include non-Gaussian fluctuations, which better explains recent findings of a near-constant source duration for low-frequency earthquake families.

Machine learning reveals cyclic changes in seismic source spectra in Geysers geothermal field.

PubMed

Holtzman, Benjamin K; Paté, Arthur; Paisley, John; Waldhauser, Felix; Repetto, Douglas

2018-05-01

The earthquake rupture process comprises complex interactions of stress, fracture, and frictional properties. New machine learning methods demonstrate great potential to reveal patterns in time-dependent spectral properties of seismic signals and enable identification of changes in faulting processes. Clustering of 46,000 earthquakes of 0.3 < M L < 1.5 from the Geysers geothermal field (CA) yields groupings that have no reservoir-scale spatial patterns but clear temporal patterns. Events with similar spectral properties repeat on annual cycles within each cluster and track changes in the water injection rates into the Geysers reservoir, indicating that changes in acoustic properties and faulting processes accompany changes in thermomechanical state. The methods open new means to identify and characterize subtle changes in seismic source properties, with applications to tectonic and geothermal seismicity.

Integrating Low-Cost Mems Accelerometer Mini-Arrays (mama) in Earthquake Early Warning Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nof, R. N.; Chung, A. I.; Rademacher, H.; Allen, R. M.

2016-12-01

Current operational Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) acquire data with networks of single seismic stations, and compute source parameters assuming earthquakes to be point sources. For large events, the point-source assumption leads to an underestimation of magnitude, and the use of single stations leads to large uncertainties in the locations of events outside the network. We propose the use of mini-arrays to improve EEWS. Mini-arrays have the potential to: (a) estimate reliable hypocentral locations by beam forming (FK-analysis) techniques; (b) characterize the rupture dimensions and account for finite-source effects, leading to more reliable estimates for large magnitudes. Previously, the high price of multiple seismometers has made creating arrays cost-prohibitive. However, we propose setting up mini-arrays of a new seismometer based on low-cost (<$150), high-performance MEMS accelerometer around conventional seismic stations. The expected benefits of such an approach include decreasing alert-times, improving real-time shaking predictions and mitigating false alarms. We use low-resolution 14-bit Quake Catcher Network (QCN) data collected during Rapid Aftershock Mobilization Program (RAMP) in Christchurch, NZ following the M7.1 Darfield earthquake in September 2010. As the QCN network was so dense, we were able to use small sub-array of up to ten sensors spread along a maximum area of 1.7x2.2 km2 to demonstrate our approach and to solve for the BAZ of two events (Mw4.7 and Mw5.1) with less than ±10° error. We will also present the new 24-bit device details, benchmarks, and real-time measurements.

Testing earthquake source inversion methodologies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Page, M.; Mai, P.M.; Schorlemmer, D.

2011-01-01

Source Inversion Validation Workshop; Palm Springs, California, 11-12 September 2010; Nowadays earthquake source inversions are routinely performed after large earthquakes and represent a key connection between recorded seismic and geodetic data and the complex rupture process at depth. The resulting earthquake source models quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of ruptures. They are also used to provide a rapid assessment of the severity of an earthquake and to estimate losses. However, because of uncertainties in the data, assumed fault geometry and velocity structure, and chosen rupture parameterization, it is not clear which features of these source models are robust. Improved understanding of the uncertainty and reliability of earthquake source inversions will allow the scientific community to use the robust features of kinematic inversions to more thoroughly investigate the complexity of the rupture process and to better constrain other earthquakerelated computations, such as ground motion simulations and static stress change calculations.

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment based on the long-term evaluation of subduction-zone earthquakes along the Sagami Trough, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, K.; Fujiwara, H.; Nakamura, H.; Osada, M.; Ohsumi, T.; Morikawa, N.; Kawai, S.; Maeda, T.; Matsuyama, H.; Toyama, N.; Kito, T.; Murata, Y.; Saito, R.; Takayama, J.; Akiyama, S.; Korenaga, M.; Abe, Y.; Hashimoto, N.; Hakamata, T.

2017-12-01

For the forthcoming large earthquakes along the Sagami Trough where the Philippine Sea Plate is subducting beneath the northeast Japan arc, the Earthquake Research Committee(ERC) /Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, Japanese government (2014a) assessed that M7 and M8 class earthquakes will occur there and defined the possible extent of the earthquake source areas. They assessed 70% and 0% 5% of the occurrence probability within the next 30 years (from Jan. 1, 2014), respectively, for the M7 and M8 class earthquakes. First, we set possible 10 earthquake source areas(ESAs) and 920 ESAs, respectively, for M8 and M7 class earthquakes. Next, we constructed 125 characterized earthquake fault models (CEFMs) and 938 CEFMs, respectively, for M8 and M7 class earthquakes, based on "tsunami receipt" of ERC (2017) (Kitoh et al., 2016, JpGU). All the CEFMs are allowed to have a large slip area for expression of fault slip heterogeneity. For all the CEFMs, we calculate tsunamis by solving a nonlinear long wave equation, using FDM, including runup calculation, over a nesting grid system with a minimum grid size of 50 meters. Finally, we re-distributed the occurrence probability to all CEFMs (Abe et al., 2014, JpGU) and gathered excess probabilities for variable tsunami heights, calculated from all the CEFMs, at every observation point along Pacific coast to get PTHA. We incorporated aleatory uncertainties inherent in tsunami calculation and earthquake fault slip heterogeneity. We considered two kinds of probabilistic hazard models; one is "Present-time hazard model" under an assumption that the earthquake occurrence basically follows a renewal process based on BPT distribution if the latest faulting time was known. The other is "Long-time averaged hazard model" under an assumption that earthquake occurrence follows a stationary Poisson process. We fixed our viewpoint, for example, on the probability that the tsunami height will exceed 3 meters at coastal points in next 30 years (from Jan. 1, 2014). Present-time hazard model showed relatively high possibility over 0.1% along the Boso Peninsula. Long-time averaged hazard model showed highest possibility over 3% along the Boso Peninsula and relatively high possibility over 0.1 % along wide coastal areas on Pacific side from Kii Peninsula to Fukushima prefecture.

High-resolution seismic survey for the characterization of planned PIER-ICDP fluid-monitoring sites in the Eger Rift zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simon, H.; Buske, S.

2017-12-01

The Eger Rift zone (Czech Republic) is a intra-continental non-volcanic region and is characterized by outstanding geodynamic activities, which result in earthquake swarms and significant CO2 emanations. Because fluid-induced stress can trigger earthquake swarms, both natural phenomena are probably related to each other. The epicentres of the earthquake swarms cluster at the northern edge of the Cheb Basin. Although the location of the cluster coincides with the major Mariánské-Lázně Fault Zone (MLFZ) the strike of the focal plane indicates another fault zone, the N-S trending Počátky-Plesná Zone (PPZ). Isotopic analysis of the CO2-rich fluids revealed a significant portion of upper mantle derived components, hence a magmatic fluid source in the upper mantle was postulated. Because of these phenomena, the Eger Rift area is a unique site for interdisciplinary drilling programs to study the fluid-earthquake interaction. The ICDP project PIER (Probing of Intra-continental magmatic activity: drilling the Eger Rift) will set up an observatory, consisting of five monitoring boreholes. In preparation for the drilling, the goal of the seismic survey is the characterization of the projected fluid-monitoring drill site at the CO2 degassing mofette field near Hartoušov. This will be achieved by a 6 km long profile with dense source and receiver spacing. The W-E trending profile will cross the proposed drill site and the surface traces of MLFZ and PPZ. The outcome of the seismic survey will be a high-resolution structural image of potential reflectors related to these fault zones. This will be achieved by the application of advanced pre-stack depth migration methods and a detailed P-wave velocity distribution of the area obtained from first arrival tomography. During interpretation of the seismic data, a geoelectrical resistivity model, acquired along the same profile line, will provide important constraints, especially with respect to fluid pathways.

Landslides and megathrust splay faults captured by the late Holocene sediment record of eastern Prince William Sound, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Finn, S.P.; Liberty, Lee M.; Haeussler, Peter J.; Pratt, Thomas L.

2015-01-01

We present new marine seismic‐reflection profiles and bathymetric maps to characterize Holocene depositional patterns, submarine landslides, and active faults beneath eastern and central Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, which is the eastern rupture patch of the 1964 Mw 9.2 earthquake. We show evidence that submarine landslides, many of which are likely earthquake triggered, repeatedly released along the southern margin of Orca Bay in eastern PWS. We document motion on reverse faults during the 1964 Great Alaska earthquake and estimate late Holocene slip rates for these growth faults, which splay from the subduction zone megathrust. Regional bathymetric lineations help define the faults that extend 40–70 km in length, some of which show slip rates as great as 3.75  mm/yr. We infer that faults mapped below eastern PWS connect to faults mapped beneath central PWS and possibly onto the Alaska mainland via an en echelon style of faulting. Moderate (Mw>4) upper‐plate earthquakes since 1964 give rise to the possibility that these faults may rupture independently to potentially generate Mw 7–8 earthquakes, and that these earthquakes could damage local infrastructure from ground shaking. Submarine landslides, regardless of the source of initiation, could generate local tsunamis to produce large run‐ups along nearby shorelines. In a more general sense, the PWS area shows that faults that splay from the underlying plate boundary present proximal, perhaps independent seismic sources within the accretionary prism, creating a broad zone of potential surface rupture that can extend inland 150 km or more from subduction zone trenches.

Improved Phase Characterization of Far-Regional Body Wave Arrivals in Central Asia

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-30

developing array -based methods that can more accurately characterize far-regional (14*-29*) seismic wavefield structure. Far- regional (14*-29*) seismograms...arrivals with the primary arrivals. These complexities can be region and earthquake specific. The regional seismic arrays that have been built in the last...fifteen years should be a rich data source for the study of far-regional phase behavior. The arrays are composed of high-quality borehole seismometers

Seismic Hazard and Ground Motion Characterization at the Itoiz Dam (Northern Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivas-Medina, A.; Santoyo, M. A.; Luzón, F.; Benito, B.; Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; García-Jerez, A.

2012-08-01

This paper presents a new hazard-consistent ground motion characterization of the Itoiz dam site, located in Northern Spain. Firstly, we propose a methodology with different approximation levels to the expected ground motion at the dam site. Secondly, we apply this methodology taking into account the particular characteristics of the site and of the dam. Hazard calculations were performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment method using a logic tree, which accounts for different seismic source zonings and different ground-motion attenuation relationships. The study was done in terms of peak ground acceleration and several spectral accelerations of periods coinciding with the fundamental vibration periods of the dam. In order to estimate these ground motions we consider two different dam conditions: when the dam is empty ( T = 0.1 s) and when it is filled with water to its maximum capacity ( T = 0.22 s). Additionally, seismic hazard analysis is done for two return periods: 975 years, related to the project earthquake, and 4,975 years, identified with an extreme event. Soil conditions were also taken into account at the site of the dam. Through the proposed methodology we deal with different forms of characterizing ground motion at the study site. In a first step, we obtain the uniform hazard response spectra for the two return periods. In a second step, a disaggregation analysis is done in order to obtain the controlling earthquakes that can affect the dam. Subsequently, we characterize the ground motion at the dam site in terms of specific response spectra for target motions defined by the expected values SA ( T) of T = 0.1 and 0.22 s for the return periods of 975 and 4,975 years, respectively. Finally, synthetic acceleration time histories for earthquake events matching the controlling parameters are generated using the discrete wave-number method and subsequently analyzed. Because of the short relative distances between the controlling earthquakes and the dam site we considered finite sources in these computations. We conclude that directivity effects should be taken into account as an important variable in this kind of studies for ground motion characteristics.

Local tsunamis and earthquake source parameters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Dmowska, Renata; Saltzman, Barry

1999-01-01

This chapter establishes the relationship among earthquake source parameters and the generation, propagation, and run-up of local tsunamis. In general terms, displacement of the seafloor during the earthquake rupture is modeled using the elastic dislocation theory for which the displacement field is dependent on the slip distribution, fault geometry, and the elastic response and properties of the medium. Specifically, nonlinear long-wave theory governs the propagation and run-up of tsunamis. A parametric study is devised to examine the relative importance of individual earthquake source parameters on local tsunamis, because the physics that describes tsunamis from generation through run-up is complex. Analysis of the source parameters of various tsunamigenic earthquakes have indicated that the details of the earthquake source, namely, nonuniform distribution of slip along the fault plane, have a significant effect on the local tsunami run-up. Numerical methods have been developed to address the realistic bathymetric and shoreline conditions. The accuracy of determining the run-up on shore is directly dependent on the source parameters of the earthquake, which provide the initial conditions used for the hydrodynamic models.

Discriminating the tectonic and non-tectonic contributions in the ionospheric signature of the 2011, Mw7.1, dip-slip Van earthquake, Eastern Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rolland, Lucie M.; Vergnolle, Mathilde; Nocquet, Jean-Mathieu; Sladen, Anthony; Dessa, Jean-Xavier; Tavakoli, Farokh; Nankali, Hamid Reza; Cappa, FréDéRic

2013-06-01

It has previously been suggested that ionospheric perturbations triggered by large dip-slip earthquakes might offer additional source parameter information compared to the information gathered from land observations. Based on 3D modeling of GPS- and GLONASS-derived total electron content signals recorded during the 2011 Van earthquake (thrust, intra-plate event, Mw = 7.1, Turkey), we confirm that coseismic ionospheric signals do contain important information about the earthquake source, namely its slip mode. Moreover, we show that part of the ionospheric signal (initial polarity and amplitude distribution) is not related to the earthquake source, but is instead controlled by the geomagnetic field and the geometry of the Global Navigation Satellite System satellites constellation. Ignoring these non-tectonic effects would lead to an incorrect description of the earthquake source. Thus, our work emphasizes the added caution that should be used when analyzing ionospheric signals for earthquake source studies.

Discriminating the tectonic and non-tectonic contributions in the ionospheric signature of the 2011, Mw 7.1, dip-slip Van earthquake, Eastern Turkey (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rolland, L. M.; Vergnolle, M.; Nocquet, J.; Sladen, A.; Dessa, J.; Tavakoli, F.; Nankali, H.; Cappa, F.

2013-12-01

It has previously been suggested that ionospheric perturbations triggered by large dip-slip earthquakes might offer additional source parameter information compared to the information gathered from land observations. Based on 3D modeling of GPS- and GLONASS-derived total electron content signals recorded during the 2011 Van earthquake (thrust, intra-plate event, Mw = 7.1, Turkey), we confirm that coseismic ionospheric signals do contain important information about the earthquake source, namely its slip mode. Moreover, we show that part of the ionospheric signal (initial polarity and amplitude distribution) is not related to the earthquake source, but is instead controlled by the geomagnetic field and the geometry of the Global Navigation Satellite System satellites constellation. Ignoring these non-tectonic effects would lead to an incorrect description of the earthquake source. Thus, our work emphasizes the added caution that should be used when analyzing ionospheric signals for earthquake source studies.

Simulating subduction zone earthquakes using discrete element method: a window into elusive source processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blank, D. G.; Morgan, J.

2017-12-01

Large earthquakes that occur on convergent plate margin interfaces have the potential to cause widespread damage and loss of life. Recent observations reveal that a wide range of different slip behaviors take place along these megathrust faults, which demonstrate both their complexity, and our limited understanding of fault processes and their controls. Numerical modeling provides us with a useful tool that we can use to simulate earthquakes and related slip events, and to make direct observations and correlations among properties and parameters that might control them. Further analysis of these phenomena can lead to a more complete understanding of the underlying mechanisms that accompany the nucleation of large earthquakes, and what might trigger them. In this study, we use the discrete element method (DEM) to create numerical analogs to subduction megathrusts with heterogeneous fault friction. Displacement boundary conditions are applied in order to simulate tectonic loading, which in turn, induces slip along the fault. A wide range of slip behaviors are observed, ranging from creep to stick slip. We are able to characterize slip events by duration, stress drop, rupture area, and slip magnitude, and to correlate the relationships among these quantities. These characterizations allow us to develop a catalog of rupture events both spatially and temporally, for comparison with slip processes on natural faults.

New Tsunami Forecast Tools for the French Polynesia Tsunami Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clément, Joël; Reymond, Dominique

2015-03-01

This paper presents the tsunami warning tools, which are used for the estimation of the seismic source parameters. These tools are grouped under a method called Preliminary Determination of Focal Mechanism_2 ( PDFM2), that has been developed at the French Polynesia Warning Center, in the framework of the system, as a plug-in concept. The first tool determines the seismic moment and the focal geometry (strike, dip, and slip), and the second tool identifies the "tsunami earthquakes" (earthquakes that cause much bigger tsunamis than their magnitude would imply). In a tsunami warning operation, initial assessment of the tsunami potential is based on location and magnitude. The usual quick magnitude methods which use waves, work fine for smaller earthquakes. For major earthquakes these methods drastically underestimate the magnitude and its tsunami potential because the radiated energy shifts to the longer period waves. Since French Polynesia is located far away from the subduction zones of the Pacific rim, the tsunami threat is not imminent, and this luxury of time allows to use the long period surface wave data to determine the true size of a major earthquake. The source inversion method presented in this paper uses a combination of surface waves amplitude spectra and P wave first motions. The advantage of using long period surface data is that there is a much more accurate determination of earthquake size, and the advantage of using P wave first motion is to have a better constrain of the focal geometry than using the surface waves alone. The method routinely gives stable results at minutes, with being the origin time of an earthquake. Our results are then compared to the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog for validating both the seismic moment and the source geometry. The second tool discussed in this paper is the slowness parameter and is the energy-to-moment ratio. It has been used to identify tsunami earthquakes, which are characterized by having unusual slow rupture velocity and release seismic energy that has been shifted to longer periods and, therefore, have low values. The slow rupture velocity would indicate weaker material and bigger uplift and, thus, bigger tsunami potential. The use of the slowness parameter is an efficient tool for monitoring the near real-time identification of tsunami earthquakes.

The Ms4.4 2016 Yuncheng, Shanxi, China, Seismic Sequence: Source Characterizations and Tectonic Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Z.; Riaz, M. S.; Zheng, Y.; Xiong, X.

2017-12-01

On 12 March 2016 at 11:14 (Beijing time) , a moderate earthquake with magnitude Ms4.4 struck Yuncheng County, Shanxi Province, Central China. Seismic activity continued with numerous aftershocks, and another event with little smaller magnitude of Ms4.0 occurred on 27 March 2016 at 3:58 as well as a lot of aftershocks followed. Seismic waves from the earthquakes were recorded by a dense local broadband seismic network in Shanxi and its surrounding provinces, enabling detailed the source characterizations of this earthquake sequence. The hypocenters of the Yuncheng earthquake sequence determined by the TomoDD method displayed that the events occurred in the middle of Yuncheng Basin which locates between Weihe Basin and Fenhe Basin, one of renowned active seismic belts in mainland China. The relocation of the aftershocks presented a NNW-SSE orientated distribution, and the earlier aftershocks tended to fault at shallow depths, concentrating at 5 km. After the Ms4.0 event, the aftershocks extended to the SSE direction with deeper focal depths. The focal mechanisms of the mainshock and the biggest aftershock obtained by the CAP (Cut And Paste) method indicated consistent right-lateral strike-slip faults. Since the magnitude was relatively small, no surface rupture associated with this shock sequence had been observed, and no known faults exited around the epicenter, indicating that the causative fault was ambiguous just based on the focal mechanism. According to the aftershocks distribution and the recent GPS results, the ruptured fault was apt to the nodal plane striking at 194°, dipping 79° and rake 151° for Ms4.4 mainshock and 199°/73°/141°, representing strike/dip/rake, for Ms4.0 aftershock. This earthquake sequence was regarded as an adjustment of stress accumulation in the pull-apart Yuncheng Basin, implying that the energy around the boundary faults of the basin has accumulated continuously.

Investigating microearthquake finite source attributes with IRIS Community Wavefield Demonstration Experiment in Oklahoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Wenyuan; McGuire, Jeffrey J.

2018-05-01

An earthquake rupture process can be kinematically described by rupture velocity, duration and spatial extent. These key kinematic source parameters provide important constraints on earthquake physics and rupture dynamics. In particular, core questions in earthquake science can be addressed once these properties of small earthquakes are well resolved. However, these parameters of small earthquakes are poorly understood, often limited by available datasets and methodologies. The IRIS Community Wavefield Experiment in Oklahoma deployed ˜350 three component nodal stations within 40 km2 for a month, offering an unprecedented opportunity to test new methodologies for resolving small earthquake finite source properties in high resolution. In this study, we demonstrate the power of the nodal dataset to resolve the variations in the seismic wavefield over the focal sphere due to the finite source attributes of a M2 earthquake within the array. The dense coverage allows us to tightly constrain rupture area using the second moment method even for such a small earthquake. The M2 earthquake was a strike-slip event and unilaterally propagated towards the surface at 90 per cent local S- wave speed (2.93 km s-1). The earthquake lasted ˜0.019 s and ruptured Lc ˜70 m by Wc ˜45 m. With the resolved rupture area, the stress-drop of the earthquake is estimated as 7.3 MPa for Mw 2.3. We demonstrate that the maximum and minimum bounds on rupture area are within a factor of two, much lower than typical stress drop uncertainty, despite a suboptimal station distribution. The rupture properties suggest that there is little difference between the M2 Oklahoma earthquake and typical large earthquakes. The new three component nodal systems have great potential for improving the resolution of studies of earthquake source properties.

The role of complex site and basin response in Wellington city, New Zealand, during the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake and other recent earthquake sequences.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaiser, A. E.; McVerry, G.; Wotherspoon, L.; Bradley, B.; Gerstenberger, M.; Benites, R. A.; Bruce, Z.; Bourguignon, S.; Giallini, S.; Hill, M.

2017-12-01

We present analysis of ground motion and complex amplification characteristics in Wellington during recent earthquake sequences and an overview of the 3D basin characterization and ongoing work to update site parameters for seismic design. Significant damage was observed in central Wellington, New Zealand's capital city, following the 2016 Mw7.8 Kaikōura earthquake. Damage was concentrated in mid-rise structures (5 - 15 storeys) and was clearly exacerbated by the particular characteristics of ground motion and the presence of basin effects. Due to the distance of the source (50 - 60km) from the central city, peak ground accelerations were moderate (up to 0.28g) and well within ultimate limit state (ULS) design levels. However, spectral accelerations within the 1 -2 s period range, exceeded 1 in 500 year design level spectra (ULS) in deeper parts of the basin. Amplification with respect to rock at these locations reached factors of up to 7, and was also observed with factors up to at least three across all central city soil recording sites. The ground motions in Wellington were the strongest recorded in the modern era of instrumentation. While similar amplification was observed during the 2013 Mw 6.6 Cook Strait and Grassmere earthquakes, which struck close to the termination of the Kaikōura earthquake rupture, these sources were not sufficiently large to excite significant long-period motions. However, other M7.2+ sources in the region that dominate the seismic hazard, e.g. Wellington Fault, Hikurangi subduction interface and other large proximal crustal faults, are also potentially capable of exciting significant long-period basin response in Wellington. These observations and the expectation of ongoing heightened seismicity have prompted re-evaluation of the current seismic demand levels. Additional field campaigns have also been undertaken to update geotechnical properties and the 3D basin model, in order to inform ongoing research and seismic design practice.

Source Spectra and Site Response for Two Indonesian Earthquakes: the Tasikmalaya and Kerinci Events of 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunawan, I.; Cummins, P. R.; Ghasemi, H.; Suhardjono, S.

2012-12-01

Indonesia is very prone to natural disasters, especially earthquakes, due to its location in a tectonically active region. In September-October 2009 alone, intraslab and crustal earthquakes caused the deaths of thousands of people, severe infrastructure destruction and considerable economic loss. Thus, both intraslab and crustal earthquakes are important sources of earthquake hazard in Indonesia. Analysis of response spectra for these intraslab and crustal earthquakes are needed to yield more detail about earthquake properties. For both types of earthquakes, we have analysed available Indonesian seismic waveform data to constrain source and path parameters - i.e., low frequency spectral level, Q, and corner frequency - at reference stations that appear to be little influenced by site response.. We have considered these analyses for the main shocks as well as several aftershocks. We obtain corner frequencies that are reasonably consistent with the constant stress drop hypothesis. Using these results, we consider using them to extract information about site response form other stations form the Indonesian strong motion network that appear to be strongly affected by site response. Such site response data, as well as earthquake source parameters, are important for assessing earthquake hazard in Indonesia.

Seismic evolution of the 1989-1990 eruption sequence of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Power, J.A.; Lahr, J.C.; Page, R.A.; Chouet, B.A.; Stephens, C.D.; Harlow, D.H.; Murray, T.L.; Davies, J.N.

1994-01-01

Redoubt Volcano in south-central Alaska erupted between December 1989 and June 1990 in a sequence of events characterized by large tephra eruptions, pyroclastic flows, lahars and debris flows, and episodes of dome growth. The eruption was monitored by a network of five to nine seismic stations located 1 to 22 km from the summit crater. Notable features of the eruption seismicity include : (1) small long-period events beginning in September 1989 which increased slowly in number during November and early December; (2) an intense swarm of long-period events which preceded the initial eruptions on December 14 by 23 hours; (3) shallow swarms (0 to 3 km) of volcano-tectonic events following each eruption on December 15; (4) a persistent cluster of deep (6 to 10 km) volcano-tectonic earthquakes initiated by the eruptions on December 15, which continued throughout and beyond the eruption; (5) an intense swarm of long-period events which preceded the eruptions on January 2; and (6) nine additional intervals of increased long-period seismicity each of which preceded a tephra eruption. Hypocenters of volcano-tectonic earthquakes suggest the presence of a magma source region at 6-10 km depth. Earthquakes at these depths were initiated by the tephra eruptions on December 15 and likely represent the readjustment of stresses in the country rock associated with the removal of magma from these depths. The locations and time-history of these earthquakes coupled with the eruptive behavior of the volcano suggest this region was the source of most of the erupted material during the 1989-1990 eruption. This source region appears to be connected to the surface by a narrow pipe-like conduit as inferred from the hypocenters of volcano-tectonic earthquakes. Concentrations of shallow volcano-tectonic earthquakes followed each of the tephra eruptions on December 15; these shocks may represent stress readjustment in the wall rock related to the removal of magma and volatiles at these depths. This shallow zone was the source area of the majority of long-period seismicity through the remainder of the eruption. The long-period seismicity likely reflects the pressurization of the shallow portions of the magmatic system. ?? 1994.

Facilitating open global data use in earthquake source modelling to improve geodetic and seismological approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudhaus, Henriette; Heimann, Sebastian; Steinberg, Andreas; Isken, Marius; Vasyura-Bathke, Hannes

2017-04-01

In the last few years impressive achievements have been made in improving inferences about earthquake sources by using InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) data. Several factors aided these developments. The open data basis of earthquake observations has expanded vastly with the two powerful Sentinel-1 SAR sensors up in space. Increasing computer power allows processing of large data sets for more detailed source models. Moreover, data inversion approaches for earthquake source inferences are becoming more advanced. By now data error propagation is widely implemented and the estimation of model uncertainties is a regular feature of reported optimum earthquake source models. Also, more regularly InSAR-derived surface displacements and seismological waveforms are combined, which requires finite rupture models instead of point-source approximations and layered medium models instead of homogeneous half-spaces. In other words the disciplinary differences in geodetic and seismological earthquake source modelling shrink towards common source-medium descriptions and a source near-field/far-field data point of view. We explore and facilitate the combination of InSAR-derived near-field static surface displacement maps and dynamic far-field seismological waveform data for global earthquake source inferences. We join in the community efforts with the particular goal to improve crustal earthquake source inferences in generally not well instrumented areas, where often only the global backbone observations of earthquakes are available provided by seismological broadband sensor networks and, since recently, by Sentinel-1 SAR acquisitions. We present our work on modelling standards for the combination of static and dynamic surface displacements in the source's near-field and far-field, e.g. on data and prediction error estimations as well as model uncertainty estimation. Rectangular dislocations and moment-tensor point sources are exchanged by simple planar finite rupture models. 1d-layered medium models are implemented for both near- and far-field data predictions. A highlight of our approach is a weak dependence on earthquake bulletin information: hypocenter locations and source origin times are relatively free source model parameters. We present this harmonized source modelling environment based on example earthquake studies, e.g. the 2010 Haiti earthquake, the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake and others. We discuss the benefit of combined-data non-linear modelling on the resolution of first-order rupture parameters, e.g. location, size, orientation, mechanism, moment/slip and rupture propagation. The presented studies apply our newly developed software tools which build up on the open-source seismological software toolbox pyrocko (www.pyrocko.org) in the form of modules. We aim to facilitate a better exploitation of open global data sets for a wide community studying tectonics, but the tools are applicable also for a large range of regional to local earthquake studies. Our developments therefore ensure a large flexibility in the parametrization of medium models (e.g. 1d to 3d medium models), source models (e.g. explosion sources, full moment tensor sources, heterogeneous slip models, etc) and of the predicted data (e.g. (high-rate) GPS, strong motion, tilt). This work is conducted within the project "Bridging Geodesy and Seismology" (www.bridges.uni-kiel.de) funded by the German Research Foundation DFG through an Emmy-Noether grant.

How much does geometry of seismic sources matter in tsunami modeling? A sensitivity analysis for the Calabrian subduction interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonini, R.; Maesano, F. E.; Tiberti, M. M.; Romano, F.; Scala, A.; Lorito, S.; Volpe, M.; Basili, R.

2017-12-01

The geometry of seismogenic sources could be one of the most important factors concurring to control the generation and the propagation of earthquake-generated tsunamis and their effects on the coasts. Since the majority of potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes occur offshore, the corresponding faults are generally poorly constrained and, consequently, their geometry is often oversimplified as a planar fault. The rupture area of mega-thrust earthquakes in subduction zones, where most of the greatest tsunamis have occurred, extends for tens to hundreds of kilometers both down dip and along strike, and generally deviates from the planar geometry. Therefore, the larger the earthquake size is, the weaker the planar fault assumption become. In this work, we present a sensitivity analysis aimed to explore the effects on modeled tsunamis generated by seismic sources with different degrees of geometric complexities. We focused on the Calabrian subduction zone, located in the Mediterranean Sea, which is characterized by the convergence between the African and European plates, with rates of up to 5 mm/yr. This subduction zone has been considered to have generated some past large earthquakes and tsunamis, despite it shows only in-slab significant seismic activity below 40 km depth and no relevant seismicity in the shallower portion of the interface. Our analysis is performed by defining and modeling an exhaustive set of tsunami scenarios located in the Calabrian subduction and using different models of the subduction interface with increasing geometrical complexity, from a planar surface to a highly detailed 3D surface. The latter was obtained from the interpretation of a dense network of seismic reflection profiles coupled with the analysis of the seismicity distribution. The more relevant effects due to the inclusion of 3D complexities in the seismic source geometry are finally highlighted in terms of the resulting tsunami impact.

Remotely-triggered Slip in Mexico City Induced by the September 2017 Mw=7.1 Puebla Earthquake.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solano Rojas, D. E.; Havazli, E.; Cabral-Cano, E.; Wdowinski, S.

2017-12-01

Although the epicenter of the September 19th, 2017 Mw=7.1 Puebla earthquake is located 100 km from Mexico City, the earthquake caused severe destruction in the city, leading to life loss and property damage. Mexico City is built on a thick clay-rich sedimentary sequence and, hence, is susceptible to seismic acceleration during earthquakes. The sediment layer also causes land subsidence, at rates as high as 350 mm/yr, and surface faulting. The earthquake damage in the eastern part of the city, characterized by the collapse of several buildings, can be explained by seismic amplification. However, the damage in the southern part of the city, characterized by the collapse of small houses and surface faulting, requires a different explanation. We present here geodetic observations suggesting that the surface faulting in Mexico City triggered by the Puebla earthquake occurred in areas already experiencing differential displacements. Our study is based on Sentinel-1A satellite data from before and after the earthquake (September 17th and 29th, 2017). We process the data using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) to produce a coseismic interferogram. We also identify phase discontinuities that can be interpreted as surface faulting using the phase gradient technique (Price and Sandwell, 1998). The results of our analysis reveal the locations and patterns of coseismic phase discontinuities, mainly in the piedmont of the Sierra de Santa Catarina, which agree with the location of earthquake's damage reported by official and unofficial sources (GCDMX, 2017; OSM, 2017). The observed phase discontinuities also agree well with the location of preexisting, subsidence-related faults identified during 10 years of field surveys (GCDMX, 2017) and coincide with differential displacements identified using a Fast Fourier Transform residual technique on high-resolution InSAR results from 2012 (Solano-Rojas et. al, 2017). We propose that the seismic energy released by the 2017 Mw=7.1 Puebla earthquake induced fast soil consolidation, which remotely triggered slip on the preexisting subsidence-related faults. The slip observed during this earthquake represents a hazard that needs to be considered in future urban development plans of Mexico City.

USGS remote sensing coordination for the 2010 Haiti earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duda, Kenneth A.; Jones, Brenda

2011-01-01

In response to the devastating 12 January 2010, earthquake in Haiti, the US Geological Survey (USGS) provided essential coordinating services for remote sensing activities. Communication was rapidly established between the widely distributed response teams and data providers to define imaging requirements and sensor tasking opportunities. Data acquired from a variety of sources were received and archived by the USGS, and these products were subsequently distributed using the Hazards Data Distribution System (HDDS) and other mechanisms. Within six weeks after the earthquake, over 600,000 files representing 54 terabytes of data were provided to the response community. The USGS directly supported a wide variety of groups in their use of these data to characterize post-earthquake conditions and to make comparisons with pre-event imagery. The rapid and continuing response achieved was enabled by existing imaging and ground systems, and skilled personnel adept in all aspects of satellite data acquisition, processing, distribution and analysis. The information derived from image interpretation assisted senior planners and on-site teams to direct assistance where it was most needed.

Spatiotemporal earthquake clusters along the North Anatolian fault zone offshore Istanbul

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bulut, Fatih; Ellsworth, William L.; Bohnhoff, Marco; Aktar, Mustafa; Dresen, Georg

2011-01-01

We investigate earthquakes with similar waveforms in order to characterize spatiotemporal microseismicity clusters within the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) in northwest Turkey along the transition between the 1999 ??zmit rupture zone and the Marmara Sea seismic gap. Earthquakes within distinct activity clusters are relocated with cross-correlation derived relative travel times using the double difference method. The spatiotemporal distribution of micro earthquakes within individual clusters is resolved with relative location accuracy comparable to or better than the source size. High-precision relative hypocenters define the geometry of individual fault patches, permitting a better understanding of fault kinematics and their role in local-scale seismotectonics along the region of interest. Temporal seismic sequences observed in the eastern Sea of Marmara region suggest progressive failure of mostly nonoverlapping areas on adjacent fault patches and systematic migration of microearthquakes within clusters during the progressive failure of neighboring fault patches. The temporal distributions of magnitudes as well as the number of events follow swarmlike behavior rather than a mainshock/aftershock pattern.

A combined geodetic and seismic model for the Mw 8.3 2015 Illapel (Chile) earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simons, M.; Duputel, Z.; Jiang, J.; Liang, C.; Fielding, E. J.; Agram, P. S.; Owen, S. E.; Moore, A. W.; Kanamori, H.; Rivera, L. A.; Riel, B. V.; Ortega, F.

2015-12-01

The 2015 September 16 Mw 8.3 Illapel earthquake occurred on the subduction megathrust offshore of the Chilean coastline between the towns of Valparaiso and Coquimbo. This earthquake is the 3rdevent with Mw>8 to impact coastal Chile in the last 6 years. It occurred north of both the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake and the 1985 Mw 8.0 Valparaiso earthquake. While the location of the 2015 earthquake is close to the inferred location of a large earthquake in 1943, comparison of seismograms from the two earthquakes suggests the recent event is not clearly a repeat of the 1943 event. To gain a better understanding of the distribution of coseismic fault slip, we develop a finite fault model that is constrained by a combination of static GPS offsets, Sentinel 1a ascending and descending radar interferograms, tsunami waveform measurements made at selected DART buoys, high rate (1 sample/sec) GPS waveforms and strong motion seismic data. Our modeling approach follows a Bayesian formulation devoid of a priori smoothing thereby allowing us to maximize spatial resolution of the inferred family of models. The adopted approach also attempts to account for major sources of uncertainty in the assumed forward models. At the inherent resolution of the model, the posterior ensemble of purely static models (without using high rate GPS and strong motion data) is characterized by a distribution of slip that reaches as much as 10 m in localized regions, with significant slip apparently reaching the trench or at least very close to the trench. Based on our W-phase point-source estimate, the event duration is approximately 1.7 minutes. We also present a joint kinematic model and describe the relationship of the coseismic model to the spatial distribution of aftershocks and post-seismic slip.

Source characteristics of the Fairview, OK, earthquake sequence and its relationship to industrial activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeck, W. L.; Weingarten, M.; Benz, H.; McNamara, D. E.; Herrmann, R. B.; Rubinstein, J. L.; Earle, P. S.; Bergman, E.

2016-12-01

We characterize the spatio-temporal patterns of seismicity surrounding the February 13, 2016, Mw 5.1 Fairview, Oklahoma earthquake. This earthquake sequence accounts for the largest moment release in the central and eastern US since the November 06, 2011 Mw 5.6 Prague, OK earthquake sequence. To improve the location accuracy of the sequence and measure near-source ground motions, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) deployed eight seismometers and accelerometers in the epicentral region. With the added depth control from these stations, we show that earthquakes primarily occur in the Precambrian basement, at depths of 6-10 km below sea level. The Mw 5.1 mainshock, the largest event in the cluster, locates near the base of the seismicity. Relocated aftershocks delineate a partially unmapped, 14-km-long fault segment that strikes approximately N40°E, partially bridging the gap between previously mapped basement faults to the southwest and northeast. Gas production and hydraulic fracking data from the region show no evidence that either of these activities correlates spatio-temporally with the Fairview sequence. Instead, we suggest that a series of high-rate, Arbuckle injection wells (> 300,000 bbls/month) 8-25 km northeast of this sequence pressurized the reservoir in the far field. Regional injection into the Arbuckle formation increased 7-fold in the 24 months before the initiation of the sequence with some wells operating at rates greater than 1 million barrels per month. Seismicity in the proximity of the high-rate wells is diffuse whilst the energetic Fairview sequence occurs more than 15 km from this region. Our observations point to the critical role pre-existing geologic structures play in the occurrence of large induced earthquakes. This study demonstrates the need for a better understanding of the role of far-field pressurization. High-quality data sets such as this facilitate the USGS mission to improve earthquake hazard identification, especially as related to induced earthquakes.

Tsunami Simulations in the Western Makran Using Hypothetical Heterogeneous Source Models from World's Great Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rashidi, Amin; Shomali, Zaher Hossein; Keshavarz Farajkhah, Nasser

2018-03-01

The western segment of Makran subduction zone is characterized with almost no major seismicity and no large earthquake for several centuries. A possible episode for this behavior is that this segment is currently locked accumulating energy to generate possible great future earthquakes. Taking into account this assumption, a hypothetical rupture area is considered in the western Makran to set different tsunamigenic scenarios. Slip distribution models of four recent tsunamigenic earthquakes, i.e. 2015 Chile M w 8.3, 2011 Tohoku-Oki M w 9.0 (using two different scenarios) and 2006 Kuril Islands M w 8.3, are scaled into the rupture area in the western Makran zone. The numerical modeling is performed to evaluate near-field and far-field tsunami hazards. Heterogeneity in slip distribution results in higher tsunami amplitudes. However, its effect reduces from local tsunamis to regional and distant tsunamis. Among all considered scenarios for the western Makran, only a similar tsunamigenic earthquake to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki event can re-produce a significant far-field tsunami and is considered as the worst case scenario. The potential of a tsunamigenic source is dominated by the degree of slip heterogeneity and the location of greatest slip on the rupture area. For the scenarios with similar slip patterns, the mean slip controls their relative power. Our conclusions also indicate that along the entire Makran coasts, the southeastern coast of Iran is the most vulnerable area subjected to tsunami hazard.

Tsunami Simulations in the Western Makran Using Hypothetical Heterogeneous Source Models from World's Great Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rashidi, Amin; Shomali, Zaher Hossein; Keshavarz Farajkhah, Nasser

2018-04-01

The western segment of Makran subduction zone is characterized with almost no major seismicity and no large earthquake for several centuries. A possible episode for this behavior is that this segment is currently locked accumulating energy to generate possible great future earthquakes. Taking into account this assumption, a hypothetical rupture area is considered in the western Makran to set different tsunamigenic scenarios. Slip distribution models of four recent tsunamigenic earthquakes, i.e. 2015 Chile M w 8.3, 2011 Tohoku-Oki M w 9.0 (using two different scenarios) and 2006 Kuril Islands M w 8.3, are scaled into the rupture area in the western Makran zone. The numerical modeling is performed to evaluate near-field and far-field tsunami hazards. Heterogeneity in slip distribution results in higher tsunami amplitudes. However, its effect reduces from local tsunamis to regional and distant tsunamis. Among all considered scenarios for the western Makran, only a similar tsunamigenic earthquake to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki event can re-produce a significant far-field tsunami and is considered as the worst case scenario. The potential of a tsunamigenic source is dominated by the degree of slip heterogeneity and the location of greatest slip on the rupture area. For the scenarios with similar slip patterns, the mean slip controls their relative power. Our conclusions also indicate that along the entire Makran coasts, the southeastern coast of Iran is the most vulnerable area subjected to tsunami hazard.

Machine learning reveals cyclic changes in seismic source spectra in Geysers geothermal field

PubMed Central

Paisley, John

2018-01-01

The earthquake rupture process comprises complex interactions of stress, fracture, and frictional properties. New machine learning methods demonstrate great potential to reveal patterns in time-dependent spectral properties of seismic signals and enable identification of changes in faulting processes. Clustering of 46,000 earthquakes of 0.3 < ML < 1.5 from the Geysers geothermal field (CA) yields groupings that have no reservoir-scale spatial patterns but clear temporal patterns. Events with similar spectral properties repeat on annual cycles within each cluster and track changes in the water injection rates into the Geysers reservoir, indicating that changes in acoustic properties and faulting processes accompany changes in thermomechanical state. The methods open new means to identify and characterize subtle changes in seismic source properties, with applications to tectonic and geothermal seismicity. PMID:29806015

Mega-thrust and Intra-slab Earthquakes Beneath Tokyo Metropolitan Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, N.; Sato, H.; Koketsu, K.; Hagiwara, H.; Wu, F.; Okaya, D.; Iwasaki, T.; Kasahara, K.

2006-12-01

In central Japan the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducts beneath the Tokyo Metropolitan area, the Kanto region, where it causes mega-thrust earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (M8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M7.9) which had 105,000 fatalities. The vertical proximity of this down going lithospheric plate is of concern because the greater Tokyo urban region has a population of 42 million and is the center of approximately 40% of the nation's economic activities. A M7+ earthquake in this region at present has high potential to produce devastating loss of life and property with even greater global economic repercussions. The M7+ earthquake is evaluated to occur with a probability of 70% in 30 years by the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan. In 2002, a consortium of universities and government agencies in Japan started the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Urban Areas, a project to improve information needed for seismic hazards analyses of the largest urban centers. Assessment in Kanto of the seismic hazard produced by the Philippine Sea Plate (PSP) mega-thrust earthquakes requires identification of all significant faults and possible earthquake scenarios and rupture behavior, regional characterizations of PSP geometry and the overlying Honshu arc physical properties (e.g., seismic wave velocities, densities, attenuation), and local near-surface seism ic site effects. Our study addresses (1) improved regional characterization of the PSP geometry based on new deep seismic reflection profiles (Sato etal.,2005), reprocessed off-shore profiles (Kimura et al.,2005), and a dense seismic array in the Boso peninsular (Hagiwara et al., 2006) and (2) identification of asperities of the mega-thrust at the top of the PSP. We qualitatively examine the relationship between seismic reflections and asperities inferred by reflection physical properties. We also discuss the relation between deformation of PSP and intra-slab M7+ earthquakes: the PSP is subducting beneath the Hoshu arc and also colliding with the Pacific plate. The subduction and collision both contribute active seismicity in the Kanto region. We present a high resolution tomographic image to show a low velocity zone which suggests a possible internal failure of the slab; a source region of the M7+ intra-slab earthquake. Our study contributes a new assessment of the seismic hazard in the Tokyo metropolitan area. tokyo.ac.jp/daidai/index-J.html

Sensitivity of Earthquake Loss Estimates to Source Modeling Assumptions and Uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reasenberg, Paul A.; Shostak, Nan; Terwilliger, Sharon

2006-01-01

Introduction: This report explores how uncertainty in an earthquake source model may affect estimates of earthquake economic loss. Specifically, it focuses on the earthquake source model for the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) created by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities. The loss calculations are made using HAZUS-MH, a publicly available computer program developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for calculating future losses from earthquakes, floods and hurricanes within the United States. The database built into HAZUS-MH includes a detailed building inventory, population data, data on transportation corridors, bridges, utility lifelines, etc. Earthquake hazard in the loss calculations is based upon expected (median value) ground motion maps called ShakeMaps calculated for the scenario earthquake sources defined in WGCEP. The study considers the effect of relaxing certain assumptions in the WG02 model, and explores the effect of hypothetical reductions in epistemic uncertainty in parts of the model. For example, it addresses questions such as what would happen to the calculated loss distribution if the uncertainty in slip rate in the WG02 model were reduced (say, by obtaining additional geologic data)? What would happen if the geometry or amount of aseismic slip (creep) on the region's faults were better known? And what would be the effect on the calculated loss distribution if the time-dependent earthquake probability were better constrained, either by eliminating certain probability models or by better constraining the inherent randomness in earthquake recurrence? The study does not consider the effect of reducing uncertainty in the hazard introduced through models of attenuation and local site characteristics, although these may have a comparable or greater effect than does source-related uncertainty. Nor does it consider sources of uncertainty in the building inventory, building fragility curves, and other assumptions adopted in the loss calculations. This is a sensitivity study aimed at future regional earthquake source modelers, so that they may be informed of the effects on loss introduced by modeling assumptions and epistemic uncertainty in the WG02 earthquake source model.

Kinematic and Dynamic Source Rupture Scenario for Potential Megathrust Event along the Southernmost Ryukyu Trench

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, T. C.; Hu, F.; Chen, X.; Lee, S. J.; Hung, S. H.

2017-12-01

Kinematic source model is widely used for the simulation of an earthquake, because of its simplicity and ease of application. On the other hand, dynamic source model is a more complex but important tool that can help us to understand the physics of earthquake initiation, propagation, and healing. In this study, we focus on the southernmost Ryukyu Trench which is extremely close to northern Taiwan. Interseismic GPS data in northeast Taiwan shows a pattern of strain accumulation, which suggests the maximum magnitude of a potential future earthquake in this area is probably about magnitude 8.7. We develop dynamic rupture models for the hazard estimation of the potential megathrust event based on the kinematic rupture scenarios which are inverted using the interseismic GPS data. Besides, several kinematic source rupture scenarios with different characterized slip patterns are also considered to constrain the dynamic rupture process better. The initial stresses and friction properties are tested using the trial-and-error method, together with the plate coupling and tectonic features. An analysis of the dynamic stress field associated with the slip prescribed in the kinematic models can indicate possible inconsistencies with physics of faulting. Furthermore, the dynamic and kinematic rupture models are considered to simulate the ground shaking from based on 3-D spectral-element method. We analyze ShakeMap and ShakeMovie from the simulation results to evaluate the influence over the island between different source models. A dispersive tsunami-propagation simulation is also carried out to evaluate the maximum tsunami wave height along the coastal areas of Taiwan due to coseismic seafloor deformation of different source models. The results of this numerical simulation study can provide a physically-based information of megathrust earthquake scenario for the emergency response agency to take the appropriate action before the really big one happens.

The effects of core-reflected waves on finite fault inversions with teleseismic body wave data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Yunyi; Ni, Sidao; Wei, Shengji; Almeida, Rafael; Zhang, Han

2017-11-01

Teleseismic body waves are essential for imaging rupture processes of large earthquakes. Earthquake source parameters are usually characterized by waveform analyses such as finite fault inversions using only turning (direct) P and SH waves without considering the reflected phases from the core-mantle boundary (CMB). However, core-reflected waves such as ScS usually have amplitudes comparable to direct S waves due to the total reflection from the CMB and might interfere with the S waves used for inversion, especially at large epicentral distances for long duration earthquakes. In order to understand how core-reflected waves affect teleseismic body wave inversion results, we develop a procedure named Multitel3 to compute Green's functions that contain turning waves (direct P, pP, sP, direct S, sS and reverberations in the crust) and core-reflected waves (PcP, pPcP, sPcP, ScS, sScS and associated reflected phases from the CMB). This ray-based method can efficiently generate synthetic seismograms for turning and core-reflected waves independently, with the flexibility to take into account the 3-D Earth structure effect on the timing between these phases. The performance of this approach is assessed through a series of numerical inversion tests on synthetic waveforms of the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake and the 2015 Mw7.8 Nepal earthquake. We also compare this improved method with the turning-wave only inversions and explore the stability of the new procedure when there are uncertainties in a priori information (such as fault geometry and epicentre location) or arrival time of core-reflected phases. Finally, a finite fault inversion of the 2005 Mw8.7 Nias-Simeulue earthquake is carried out using the improved Green's functions. Using enhanced Green's functions yields better inversion results as expected. While the finite source inversion with conventional P and SH waves is able to recover large-scale characteristics of the earthquake source, by adding PcP and ScS phases, the inverted slip model and moment rate function better match previous results incorporating field observations, geodetic and seismic data.

Characterizing directional variations in long-period ground motion amplifications in the Kanto Basin, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukai, Y.; Furumura, T.; Maeda, T.

2017-12-01

In the Kanto Basin (including Tokyo in Japan), the long-period (T=3-10 s) ground motions are strongly developed when large earthquakes occur nearby. The amplitude of the long-period ground motion in the basin varies strongly among earthquakes; it is tremendous from the earthquakes in Niigata (northwest of Kanto), but is several times weaker from the earthquakes in Tohoku (north of Kanto). In this study, we examined the cause of such azimuthal-dependent amplitude variation for the 2004 Niigata Chuetsu (M6.8) and the 2011 Fukushima Hamadori (M7.0) earthquake based on numerical simulations of seismic wave propagation by the finite-difference method. We first examined the non-isotropic source-radiation effect of these events. By performing numerical simulations for different strike angles of these source faults, significant variation in amplitude of the long-period ground motions were observed in Tokyo for both the events. Among tested strike angles, the source of the 2004 event (strike = 212 deg.) produced the largest long-period ground motion due to strong radiation of surface wave towards the Kanto Basin, while the 2011 event (strike = 132 deg.) produced the least. The minimum-to-maximum ratio of their amplitudes with respect to strike angle is about 2 and 1.3, respectively. These investigations suggest the source radiation effect considerably contributes to the variations of the long-period ground motions. We then examined the effect of the 3D structure of the Kanto Basin on the generation of the long-period ground motion. For the 2004 event, we found that the long-period signal first arrives at the central Tokyo from the western edge of the Kanto Basin. Then, later signals containing both the Rayleigh and Love waves were amplified dramatically due to the localized low-velocity structure to the northwestern part of the basin. On the other hand, in the case of the 2011 event, the seismic waves propagating towards the basin were dissipated significantly as it travels over the ridge structure of the basement in the northern part of the basin, where the seismic wave speed is faster than the surroundings. Therefore, the large variation of the long-period ground motion among earthquakes occurs due to the combined effects of source radiation and propagation properties in the 3D heterogeneous structure of the Kanto Basin.

Empirical Green's functions from small earthquakes: A waveform study of locally recorded aftershocks of the 1971 San Fernando earthquake

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hutchings, L.; Wu, F.

1990-02-10

Seismograms from 52 aftershocks of the 1971 San Fernando earthquake recorded at 25 stations distributed across the San Fernando Valley are examined to identify empirical Green's functions, and characterize the dependence of their waveforms on moment, focal mechanism, source and recording site spatial variations, recording site geology, and recorded frequency band. Recording distances ranged from 3.0 to 33.0 km, hypocentral separations ranged from 0.22 to 28.4 km, and recording site separations ranged from 0.185 to 24.2 km. The recording site geologies are diorite gneiss, marine and nonmarine sediments, and alluvium of varying thicknesses. Waveforms of events with moment below aboutmore » 1.5 {times} 10{sup 21} dyn cm are independent of the source-time function and are termed empirical Green's functions. Waveforms recorded at a particular station from events located within 1.0 to 3.0 km of each other, depending upon site geology, with very similar focal mechanism solutions are nearly identical for frequencies up to 10 Hz. There is no correlation to waveforms between recording sites at least 1.2 km apart, and waveforms are clearly distinctive for two sites 0.185 km apart. The geologic conditions of the recording site dominate the character of empirical Green's functions. Even for source separations of up to 20.0 km, the empirical Green's functions at a particular site are consistent in frequency content, amplification, and energy distribution. Therefore, it is shown that empirical Green's functions can be used to obtain site response functions. The observations of empirical Green's functions are used as a basis for developing the theory for using empirical Green's functions in deconvolution for source pulses and synthesis of seismograms of larger earthquakes.« less

The Earthquake Source Inversion Validation (SIV) - Project: Summary, Status, Outlook

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mai, P. M.

2017-12-01

Finite-fault earthquake source inversions infer the (time-dependent) displacement on the rupture surface from geophysical data. The resulting earthquake source models document the complexity of the rupture process. However, this kinematic source inversion is ill-posed and returns non-unique solutions, as seen for instance in multiple source models for the same earthquake, obtained by different research teams, that often exhibit remarkable dissimilarities. To address the uncertainties in earthquake-source inversions and to understand strengths and weaknesses of various methods, the Source Inversion Validation (SIV) project developed a set of forward-modeling exercises and inversion benchmarks. Several research teams then use these validation exercises to test their codes and methods, but also to develop and benchmark new approaches. In this presentation I will summarize the SIV strategy, the existing benchmark exercises and corresponding results. Using various waveform-misfit criteria and newly developed statistical comparison tools to quantify source-model (dis)similarities, the SIV platforms is able to rank solutions and identify particularly promising source inversion approaches. Existing SIV exercises (with related data and descriptions) and all computational tools remain available via the open online collaboration platform; additional exercises and benchmark tests will be uploaded once they are fully developed. I encourage source modelers to use the SIV benchmarks for developing and testing new methods. The SIV efforts have already led to several promising new techniques for tackling the earthquake-source imaging problem. I expect that future SIV benchmarks will provide further innovations and insights into earthquake source kinematics that will ultimately help to better understand the dynamics of the rupture process.

Dilational processes accompanying earthquakes in the Long Valley Caldera

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dreger, Douglas S.; Tkalcic, Hrvoje; Johnston, M.

2000-01-01

Regional distance seismic moment tensor determinations and broadband waveforms of moment magnitude 4.6 to 4.9 earthquakes from a November 1997 Long Valley Caldera swarm, during an inflation episode, display evidence of anomalous seismic radiation characterized by non-double couple (NDC) moment tensors with significant volumetric components. Observed coseismic dilation suggests that hydrothermal or magmatic processes are directly triggering some of the seismicity in the region. Similarity in the NDC solutions implies a common source process, and the anomalous events may have been triggered by net fault-normal stress reduction due to high-pressure fluid injection or pressurization of fluid-saturated faults due to magmatic heating.

Tectonic styles of future earthquakes in Italy as input data for seismic hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pondrelli, S.; Meletti, C.; Rovida, A.; Visini, F.; D'Amico, V.; Pace, B.

2017-12-01

In a recent elaboration of a new seismogenic zonation and hazard model for Italy, we tried to understand how many indications we have on the tectonic style of future earthquake/rupture. Using all available or recomputed seismic moment tensors for relevant seismic events (Mw starting from 4.5) of the last 100 yrs, first arrival focal mechanisms for less recent earthquakes and also geological data on past activated faults, we collected a database gathering a thousands of data all over the Italian peninsula and regions around it. After several summations of seismic moment tensors, over regular grids of different dimensions and different thicknesses of the seismogenic layer, we applied the same procedure to each of the 50 area sources that were designed in the seismogenic zonation. The results for several seismic zones are very stable, e.g. along the southern Apennines we expect future earthquakes to be mostly extensional, although in the outer part of the chain strike-slip events are possible. In the Northern part of the Apennines we also expect different, opposite tectonic styles for different hypocentral depths. In several zones, characterized by a low seismic moment release, defined for the study region using 1000 yrs of catalog, the next possible tectonic style of future earthquakes is less clear. It is worth to note that for some zones the possible greatest earthquake could be not represented in the available observations. We also add to our analysis the computation of the seismic release rate, computed using a distributed completeness, identified for single great events of the historical seismic catalog for Italy. All these information layers, overlapped and compared, may be used to characterize each new seismogenic zone.

First application of tsunami back-projection and source inversion for the 2012 Haida Gwaii earthquake using tsunami data recorded on a dense array of seafloor pressure gauges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusman, A. R.; Satake, K.; Sheehan, A. F.; Mulia, I. E.; Heidarzadeh, M.; Maeda, T.

2015-12-01

Adaption of absolute or differential pressure gauges (APG or DPG) to Ocean Bottom Seismometers has provided the opportunity to study tsunamis. Recently we extracted tsunami waveforms of the 28 October 2012 Haida Gwaii earthquake recoded by the APG and DPG of Cascadia Initiative program (Sheehan et al., 2015, SRL). We applied such dense tsunami observations (48 stations) together with other records from DARTs (9 stations) to characterize the tsunami source. This study is the first study that used such a large number of offshore tsunami records for earthquake source study. Conventionally the curves of tsunami travel times are drawn backward from station locations to estimate the tsunami source region. Here we propose a more advanced technique called tsunami back-projection to estimate the source region. Our image produced by tsunami back-projection has the largest value or tsunami centroid that is very close to the epicenter and above the Queen Charlotte transform fault (QCF), whereas the negative values are mostly located east of Haida Gwaii in the Hecate Strait. By using tsunami back-projection we avoid picking initial tsunami phase which is a necessary step in the conventional method that is rather subjective. The slip distribution of the 2012 Haida Gwaii earthquake estimated by tsunami waveform inversion shows large slip near the trench (4-5 m) and also on a plate interface southeast the epicenter (3-4 m) below QCF. From the slip distribution, the calculated seismic moment is 5.4 × 1020 N m (Mw 7.8). The steep bathymetry offshore Haida Gwaii and the horizontal movement caused by the earthquake possibly affects the sea surface deformation. The potential tsunami energy calculated from the sea-surface deformation of pure faulting is 2.20 × 1013 J, while that from the bathymetry effect is 0.12 × 1013 J or about 5% of the total potential energy. The significant deformation above the steep slope is confirmed by another tsunami inversion that disregards fault parameters.

Interactions and triggering in a 3D rate and state asperity model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dublanchet, P.; Bernard, P.

2012-12-01

Precise relocation of micro-seismicity and careful analysis of seismic source parameters have progressively imposed the concept of seismic asperities embedded in a creeping fault segment as being one of the most important aspect that should appear in a realistic representation of micro-seismic sources. Another important issue concerning micro-seismic activity is the existence of robust empirical laws describing the temporal and magnitude distribution of earthquakes, such as the Omori law, the distribution of inter-event time and the Gutenberg-Richter law. In this framework, this study aims at understanding statistical properties of earthquakes, by generating synthetic catalogs with a 3D, quasi-dynamic continuous rate and state asperity model, that takes into account a realistic geometry of asperities. Our approach contrasts with ETAS models (Kagan and Knopoff, 1981) usually implemented to produce earthquake catalogs, in the sense that the non linearity observed in rock friction experiments (Dieterich, 1979) is fully taken into account by the use of rate and state friction law. Furthermore, our model differs from discrete models of faults (Ziv and Cochard, 2006) because the continuity allows us to define realistic geometries and distributions of asperities by the assembling of sub-critical computational cells that always fail in a single event. Moreover, this model allows us to adress the question of the influence of barriers and distribution of asperities on the event statistics. After recalling the main observations of asperities in the specific case of Parkfield segment of San-Andreas Fault, we analyse earthquake statistical properties computed for this area. Then, we present synthetic statistics obtained by our model that allow us to discuss the role of barriers on clustering and triggering phenomena among a population of sources. It appears that an effective size of barrier, that depends on its frictional strength, controls the presence or the absence, in the synthetic catalog, of statistical laws that are similar to what is observed for real earthquakes. As an application, we attempt to draw a comparison between synthetic statistics and the observed statistics of Parkfield in order to characterize what could be a realistic frictional model of Parkfield area. More generally, we obtained synthetic statistical properties that are in agreement with power-law decays characterized by exponents that match the observations at a global scale, showing that our mechanical model is able to provide new insights into the understanding of earthquake interaction processes in general.

Investigating the Physics Behind VLFEs and LFEs: Analysis Based on Dynamic Rupture Models with Ductile-like Friction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, B.; Oglesby, D. D.; Ghosh, A.; LI, B.

2017-12-01

Very low frequency earthquakes (VLFE) and low frequency earthquakes (LFE) are two main types of seismic signal that are observed during slow earthquakes. These phenomena differ from standard ("fast") earthquakes in many ways. In contrast to seismic signals generated by standard earthquakes, these two types of signal lack energy at higher frequencies, and have very low stress drops of around 10 kPa. In addition, the Moment-Duration scaling relationship shown by VLFEs and LFEs is linear(M T) instead of M T^3 for regular earthquakes. However, if investigated separately over a small range magnitudes and durations, the scaling relationship for each is somewhat closer to M T^3, not M T. The physical mechanism of VLFEs and LFEs is still not clear, although some models have explored this issue [e.g., Gomberg, 2016b]. Here we investigate the behavior of dynamic rupture models with a ductile-like viscous frictional property [Ando et al., 2010; Nakata et al., 2011; Ando et al., 2012] on a single patch. In the model's framework, VLFE source patches are characterized by a high viscous damping term η and a larger area( 25km^2), while sources that approach LFE properties have a low viscous damping term η and smaller patch area(<0.5km^2). Using both analytical and numerical analyses, we show how and why this model may help to explain current observations. This model supports the idea that VLFEs and LFEs are distinct events, possibly rupturing distinct patches with their own stress dynamics [Hutchison and Ghosh, 2016]. The model also makes predictions that can be tested in future observational experiments.

Inundation Mapping and Hazard Assessment of Tectonic and Landslide Tsunamis in Southeast Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suleimani, E.; Nicolsky, D.; Koehler, R. D., III

2014-12-01

The Alaska Earthquake Center conducts tsunami inundation mapping for coastal communities in Alaska, and is currently focused on the southeastern region and communities of Yakutat, Elfin Cove, Gustavus and Hoonah. This activity provides local emergency officials with tsunami hazard assessment, planning, and mitigation tools. At-risk communities are distributed along several segments of the Alaska coastline, each having a unique seismic history and potential tsunami hazard. Thus, a critical component of our project is accurate identification and characterization of potential tectonic and landslide tsunami sources. The primary tectonic element of Southeast Alaska is the Fairweather - Queen Charlotte fault system, which has ruptured in 5 large strike-slip earthquakes in the past 100 years. The 1958 "Lituya Bay" earthquake triggered a large landslide into Lituya Bay that generated a 540-m-high wave. The M7.7 Haida Gwaii earthquake of October 28, 2012 occurred along the same fault, but was associated with dominantly vertical motion, generating a local tsunami. Communities in Southeast Alaska are also vulnerable to hazards related to locally generated waves, due to proximity of communities to landslide-prone fjords and frequent earthquakes. The primary mechanisms for local tsunami generation are failure of steep rock slopes due to relaxation of internal stresses after deglaciation, and failure of thick unconsolidated sediments accumulated on underwater delta fronts at river mouths. We numerically model potential tsunami waves and inundation extent that may result from future hypothetical far- and near-field earthquakes and landslides. We perform simulations for each source scenario using the Alaska Tsunami Model, which is validated through a set of analytical benchmarks and tested against laboratory and field data. Results of numerical modeling combined with historical observations are compiled on inundation maps and used for site-specific tsunami hazard assessment by emergency planners.

Pseudo-dynamic source characterization accounting for rough-fault effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galis, Martin; Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.; Mai, P. Martin

2016-04-01

Broadband ground-motion simulations, ideally for frequencies up to ~10Hz or higher, are important for earthquake engineering; for example, seismic hazard analysis for critical facilities. An issue with such simulations is realistic generation of radiated wave-field in the desired frequency range. Numerical simulations of dynamic ruptures propagating on rough faults suggest that fault roughness is necessary for realistic high-frequency radiation. However, simulations of dynamic ruptures are too expensive for routine applications. Therefore, simplified synthetic kinematic models are often used. They are usually based on rigorous statistical analysis of rupture models inferred by inversions of seismic and/or geodetic data. However, due to limited resolution of the inversions, these models are valid only for low-frequency range. In addition to the slip, parameters such as rupture-onset time, rise time and source time functions are needed for complete spatiotemporal characterization of the earthquake rupture. But these parameters are poorly resolved in the source inversions. To obtain a physically consistent quantification of these parameters, we simulate and analyze spontaneous dynamic ruptures on rough faults. First, by analyzing the impact of fault roughness on the rupture and seismic radiation, we develop equivalent planar-fault kinematic analogues of the dynamic ruptures. Next, we investigate the spatial interdependencies between the source parameters to allow consistent modeling that emulates the observed behavior of dynamic ruptures capturing the rough-fault effects. Based on these analyses, we formulate a framework for pseudo-dynamic source model, physically consistent with the dynamic ruptures on rough faults.

Appraising the Early-est earthquake monitoring system for tsunami alerting at the Italian Candidate Tsunami Service Provider

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardi, F.; Lomax, A.; Michelini, A.; Lauciani, V.; Piatanesi, A.; Lorito, S.

2015-09-01

In this paper we present and discuss the performance of the procedure for earthquake location and characterization implemented in the Italian Candidate Tsunami Service Provider at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) in Rome. Following the ICG/NEAMTWS guidelines, the first tsunami warning messages are based only on seismic information, i.e., epicenter location, hypocenter depth, and magnitude, which are automatically computed by the software Early-est. Early-est is a package for rapid location and seismic/tsunamigenic characterization of earthquakes. The Early-est software package operates using offline-event or continuous-real-time seismic waveform data to perform trace processing and picking, and, at a regular report interval, phase association, event detection, hypocenter location, and event characterization. Early-est also provides mb, Mwp, and Mwpd magnitude estimations. mb magnitudes are preferred for events with Mwp ≲ 5.8, while Mwpd estimations are valid for events with Mwp ≳ 7.2. In this paper we present the earthquake parameters computed by Early-est between the beginning of March 2012 and the end of December 2014 on a global scale for events with magnitude M ≥ 5.5, and we also present the detection timeline. We compare the earthquake parameters automatically computed by Early-est with the same parameters listed in reference catalogs. Such reference catalogs are manually revised/verified by scientists. The goal of this work is to test the accuracy and reliability of the fully automatic locations provided by Early-est. In our analysis, the epicenter location, hypocenter depth and magnitude parameters do not differ significantly from the values in the reference catalogs. Both mb and Mwp magnitudes show differences to the reference catalogs. We thus derived correction functions in order to minimize the differences and correct biases between our values and the ones from the reference catalogs. Correction of the Mwp distance dependency is particularly relevant, since this magnitude refers to the larger and probably tsunamigenic earthquakes. Mwp values at stations with epicentral distance Δ ≲ 30° are significantly overestimated with respect to the CMT-global solutions, whereas Mwp values at stations with epicentral distance Δ ≳ 90° are slightly underestimated. After applying such distance correction the Mwp provided by Early-est differs from CMT-global catalog values of about δ Mwp ≈ 0.0 ∓ 0.2. Early-est continuously acquires time-series data and updates the earthquake source parameters. Our analysis shows that the epicenter coordinates and the magnitude values converge within less than 10 min (5 min in the Mediterranean region) toward the stable values. Our analysis shows that we can compute Mwp magnitudes that do not display short epicentral distance dependency overestimation, and we can provide robust and reliable earthquake source parameters to compile tsunami warning messages within less than 15 min after the event origin time.

Could the collapse of a massive speleothem be the record of a large paleoearthquake?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valentini, Alessandro; Pace, Bruno; Vasta, Marcello; Ferranti, Luigi; Colella, Abner; Vassallo, Maurizio

2016-04-01

Earthquake forecast and seismic hazard models are generally based on historical and instrumental seismicity. However, in regions characterized by moderate strain rates and by strong earthquakes with recurrence longer than the time span covered by historical catalogues, different approaches are desirable to provide an independent test of seismologically-based models. We used non-conventional methods, such as the so-called "Fragile Geological Features", and in particular cave speleothems, for assessing and improving existing paleoseismological databases and seismic hazard models. In this work we present a detailed study of a massive speleothem found collapsed in the Cola Cave (Abruzzo region, Central Apennines, Italy) that could be considered the record of a large paleoearthquake. Radiometric dating and geotechnical measurements are carried out to characterize the collapse time and the mechanical properties of speleothem. We performed theoretical and numerical modelling in order to estimate the values of the horizontal ground acceleration required to failure the speleothems. In particular we used a finite element method (FEM), with the SAP200 software, starting from the detailed geometry of the speleothem and its mechanical properties. We used several individual seismogenic source geometries and four different ground motion prediction equations to calculate the possible response spectra. We carried out also a seismic noise survey to understand and quantify any ground motion amplification phenomenon. The results suggest two faults located in the Fucino area as the most probable causative sources of the cave speleothem collapses, recorded ~4-5 ka ago, with a Mw=6.8 ± 0.2. Our approach contributes to assess the existence of past earthquakes integrating the classical paleoseismological trenches techniques, and to attribute the retrieved event to geometrically-defined individual seismogenic sources, which represents a key contribution to improve fault-based seismic hazard models.

Earthquake activity along the Himalayan orogenic belt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, L.; Mori, J. J.

2017-12-01

The collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates formed the Himalayas, the largest orogenic belt on the Earth. The entire region accommodates shallow earthquakes, while intermediate-depth earthquakes are concentrated at the eastern and western Himalayan syntaxis. Here we investigate the focal depths, fault plane solutions, and source rupture process for three earthquake sequences, which are located at the western, central and eastern regions of the Himalayan orogenic belt. The Pamir-Hindu Kush region is located at the western Himalayan syntaxis and is characterized by extreme shortening of the upper crust and strong interaction of various layers of the lithosphere. Many shallow earthquakes occur on the Main Pamir Thrust at focal depths shallower than 20 km, while intermediate-deep earthquakes are mostly located below 75 km. Large intermediate-depth earthquakes occur frequently at the western Himalayan syntaxis about every 10 years on average. The 2015 Nepal earthquake is located in the central Himalayas. It is a typical megathrust earthquake that occurred on the shallow portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). Many of the aftershocks are located above the MHT and illuminate faulting structures in the hanging wall with dip angles that are steeper than the MHT. These observations provide new constraints on the collision and uplift processes for the Himalaya orogenic belt. The Indo-Burma region is located south of the eastern Himalayan syntaxis, where the strike of the plate boundary suddenly changes from nearly east-west at the Himalayas to nearly north-south at the Burma Arc. The Burma arc subduction zone is a typical oblique plate convergence zone. The eastern boundary is the north-south striking dextral Sagaing fault, which hosts many shallow earthquakes with focal depth less than 25 km. In contrast, intermediate-depth earthquakes along the subduction zone reflect east-west trending reverse faulting.

Investigating Along-Strike Variations of Source Parameters for Relocated Thrust Earthquakes Along the Sumatra-Java Subduction Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Hariri, M.; Bilek, S. L.; Deshon, H. R.; Engdahl, E. R.

2009-12-01

Some earthquakes generate anomalously large tsunami waves relative to their surface wave magnitudes (Ms). This class of events, known as tsunami earthquakes, is characterized by having a long rupture duration and low radiated energy at long periods. These earthquakes are relatively rare. There have been only 9 documented cases, including 2 in the Java subduction zone (1994 Mw=7.8 and the 2006 Mw=7.7). Several models have been proposed to explain the unexpectedly large tsunami, such as displacement along high-angle splay faults, landslide-induced tsunami due to coseismic shaking, or large seismic slip within low rigidity sediments or weaker material along the shallowest part of the subduction zone. Slow slip has also been suggested along portions of the 2004 Mw=9.2 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake zone. In this study we compute the source parameters of 90 relocated shallow thrust events (Mw 5.1-7.8) along the Sumatra-Java subduction zone including the two Java tsunami earthquakes. Events are relocated using a modification to the Engdahl, van der Hilst and Buland (EHB) earthquake relocation method that incorporates an automated frequency-dependent phase detector. This allows for the use of increased numbers of phase arrival times, especially depth phases, and improves hypocentral locations. Source time functions, rupture duration and depth estimates are determined using multi-station deconvolution of broadband teleseismic P and SH waves. We seek to correlate any along-strike variation in rupture characteristics with tectonic features and rupture characteristics of the previous slow earthquakes along this margin to gain a better understanding of the conditions resulting in slow ruptures. Preliminary results from the analysis of these events show that in addition to depth-dependent variations there are also along-strike variations in rupture duration. We find that along the Java segment, the longer duration event locates in a highly coupled region corresponding to the location of a proposed subducting seamount. This correlation is less clear along the southern Sumatran segment. One longer duration event is located within the high slip area of the Mw=8.4 2007 rupture, while another is located in the weakly coupled region of the 1935 Mw=7.7 rupture area.

Shaking intensity from injection-induced versus tectonic earthquakes in the central-eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hough, Susan E.

2015-01-01

Although instrumental recordings of earthquakes in the central and eastern United States (CEUS) remain sparse, the U. S. Geological Survey's “Did you feel it?” (DYFI) system now provides excellent characterization of shaking intensities caused by induced and tectonic earthquakes. Seventeen CEUS events are considered between 2013 and 2015. It is shown that for 15 events, observed intensities at epicentral distances greater than ≈ 10 km are lower than expected given a published intensity-prediction equation for the region. Using simple published relations among intensity, magnitude, and stress drop, the results suggest that 15 of the 17 events have low stress drop. For those 15 events, intensities within ≈ 10-km epicentral distance are closer to predicted values, which can be explained as a consequence of relatively shallow source depths. The results suggest that those 15 events, most of which occurred in areas where induced earthquakes have occurred previously, were likely induced. Although moderate injection-induced earthquakes in the central and eastern United States will be felt widely because of low regional attenuation, the damage from shallow earthquakes induced by injection will be more localized to event epicenters than shaking tectonic earthquakes, which tend to be somewhat deeper. Within approximately 10 km of the epicenter, intensities are generally commensurate with predicted levels expected for the event magnitude.

Engineering applications of strong ground motion simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somerville, Paul

1993-02-01

The formulation, validation and application of a procedure for simulating strong ground motions for use in engineering practice are described. The procedure uses empirical source functions (derived from near-source strong motion recordings of small earthquakes) to provide a realistic representation of effects such as source radiation that are difficult to model at high frequencies due to their partly stochastic behavior. Wave propagation effects are modeled using simplified Green's functions that are designed to transfer empirical source functions from their recording sites to those required for use in simulations at a specific site. The procedure has been validated against strong motion recordings of both crustal and subduction earthquakes. For the validation process we choose earthquakes whose source models (including a spatially heterogeneous distribution of the slip of the fault) are independently known and which have abundant strong motion recordings. A quantitative measurement of the fit between the simulated and recorded motion in this validation process is used to estimate the modeling and random uncertainty associated with the simulation procedure. This modeling and random uncertainty is one part of the overall uncertainty in estimates of ground motions of future earthquakes at a specific site derived using the simulation procedure. The other contribution to uncertainty is that due to uncertainty in the source parameters of future earthquakes that affect the site, which is estimated from a suite of simulations generated by varying the source parameters over their ranges of uncertainty. In this paper, we describe the validation of the simulation procedure for crustal earthquakes against strong motion recordings of the 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake, and for subduction earthquakes against the 1985 Michoacán, Mexico, and Valparaiso, Chile, earthquakes. We then show examples of the application of the simulation procedure to the estimatation of the design response spectra for crustal earthquakes at a power plant site in California and for subduction earthquakes in the Seattle-Portland region. We also demonstrate the use of simulation methods for modeling the attenuation of strong ground motion, and show evidence of the effect of critical reflections from the lower crust in causing the observed flattening of the attenuation of strong ground motion from the 1988 Saguenay, Quebec, and 1989 Loma Prieta earthquakes.

Source parameters of microearthquakes on an interplate asperity off Kamaishi, NE Japan over two earthquake cycles

USGS Publications Warehouse

Uchida, Naoki; Matsuzawa, Toru; Ellsworth, William L.; Imanishi, Kazutoshi; Shimamura, Kouhei; Hasegawa, Akira

2012-01-01

We have estimated the source parameters of interplate earthquakes in an earthquake cluster off Kamaishi, NE Japan over two cycles of M~ 4.9 repeating earthquakes. The M~ 4.9 earthquake sequence is composed of nine events that occurred since 1957 which have a strong periodicity (5.5 ± 0.7 yr) and constant size (M4.9 ± 0.2), probably due to stable sliding around the source area (asperity). Using P- and S-wave traveltime differentials estimated from waveform cross-spectra, three M~ 4.9 main shocks and 50 accompanying microearthquakes (M1.5–3.6) from 1995 to 2008 were precisely relocated. The source sizes, stress drops and slip amounts for earthquakes of M2.4 or larger were also estimated from corner frequencies and seismic moments using simultaneous inversion of stacked spectral ratios. Relocation using the double-difference method shows that the slip area of the 2008 M~ 4.9 main shock is co-located with those of the 1995 and 2001 M~ 4.9 main shocks. Four groups of microearthquake clusters are located in and around the mainshock slip areas. Of these, two clusters are located at the deeper and shallower edge of the slip areas and most of these microearthquakes occurred repeatedly in the interseismic period. Two other clusters located near the centre of the mainshock source areas are not as active as the clusters near the edge. The occurrence of these earthquakes is limited to the latter half of the earthquake cycles of the M~ 4.9 main shock. Similar spatial and temporal features of microearthquake occurrence were seen for two other cycles before the 1995 M5.0 and 1990 M5.0 main shocks based on group identification by waveform similarities. Stress drops of microearthquakes are 3–11 MPa and are relatively constant within each group during the two earthquake cycles. The 2001 and 2008 M~ 4.9 earthquakes have larger stress drops of 41 and 27 MPa, respectively. These results show that the stress drop is probably determined by the fault properties and does not change much for earthquakes rupturing in the same area. The occurrence of microearthquakes in the interseismic period suggests the intrusion of aseismic slip, causing a loading of these patches. We also found that some earthquakes near the centre of the mainshock source area occurred just after the earthquakes at the deeper edge of the mainshock source area. These seismic activities probably indicate episodic aseismic slip migrating from the deeper regions in the mainshock asperity to its centre during interseismic periods. Comparison of the source parameters for the 2001 and 2008 main shocks shows that the seismic moments (1.04 x 1016 Nm and 1.12 x 1016 Nm for the 2008 and 2001 earthquakes, respectively) and source sizes (radius = 570 m and 540 m for the 2008 and 2001 earthquakes, respectively) are comparable. Based on careful phase identification and hypocentre relocation by constraining the hypocentres of other small earthquakes to their precisely located centroids, we found that the hypocentres of the 2001 and 2008 M~ 4.9 events are located in the southeastern part of the mainshock source area. This location does not correspond to either episodic slip area or hypocentres of small earthquakes that occurred during the earthquake cycle.

Intraplate earthquakes and the state of stress in oceanic lithosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bergman, Eric A.

1986-01-01

The dominant sources of stress relieved in oceanic intraplate earthquakes are investigated to examine the usefulness of earthquakes as indicators of stress orientation. The primary data for this investigation are the detailed source studies of 58 of the largest of these events, performed with a body-waveform inversion technique of Nabelek (1984). The relationship between the earthquakes and the intraplate stress fields was investigated by studying, the rate of seismic moment release as a function of age, the source mechanisms and tectonic associations of larger events, and the depth-dependence of various source parameters. The results indicate that the earthquake focal mechanisms are empirically reliable indicators of stress, probably reflecting the fact that an earthquake will occur most readily on a fault plane oriented in such a way that the resolved shear stress is maximized while the normal stress across the fault, is minimized.

The earthquake potential of the New Madrid seismic zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tuttle, Martitia P.; Schweig, Eugene S.; Sims, John D.; Lafferty, Robert H.; Wolf, Lorraine W.; Haynes, Marion L.

2002-01-01

The fault system responsible for New Madrid seismicity has generated temporally clustered very large earthquakes in A.D. 900 ± 100 years and A.D. 1450 ± 150 years as well as in 1811–1812. Given the uncertainties in dating liquefaction features, the time between the past three New Madrid events may be as short as 200 years and as long as 800 years, with an average of 500 years. This advance in understanding the Late Holocene history of the New Madrid seismic zone and thus, the contemporary tectonic behavior of the associated fault system was made through studies of hundreds of earthquake-induced liquefaction features at more than 250 sites across the New Madrid region. We have found evidence that prehistoric sand blows, like those that formed during the 1811–1812 earthquakes, are probably compound structures resulting from multiple earthquakes closely clustered in time or earthquake sequences. From the spatial distribution and size of sand blows and their sedimentary units, we infer the source zones and estimate the magnitudes of earthquakes within each sequence and thereby characterize the detailed behavior of the fault system. It appears that fault rupture was complex and that the central branch of the seismic zone produced very large earthquakes during the A.D. 900 and A.D. 1450 events as well as in 1811–1812. On the basis of a minimum recurrence rate of 200 years, we are now entering the period during which the next 1811–1812-type event could occur.

Yellowstone volcano-tectonic microseismic cycles constrain models of migrating volcanic fluids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massin, F.; Farrell, J.; Smith, R. B.

2011-12-01

The objective of our research is to evaluate the source properties of extensive earthquake swarms in and around the 0.64Myr Yellowstone caldera, Yellowstone National Park, that is also the locus of widespread hydrothermal activity and ground deformation. We use earthquake waveforms data to investigate seismic wave multiplets that occur within discrete earthquake sequences. Waveform cross-correlation coefficients are computed from data acquired at six high quality stations that are merged from data of identical earthquakes into multiplets. Multiplets provide important indicators on the rupture process of the distinct seismogenic structures. Our multiplet database allowed evaluation of the seismic-source chronology from 1992 to 2010. We assess the evolution of micro-earthquake triggering by evaluating the evolution of earthquake rates and magnitudes. Some striking differences appear between two kinds of seismic swarms: 1) swarms with a high rate of repeating earthquakes of more than 200 events per day, and 2) swarms with a low rate of repeating earthquakes (less than 20 events per day). The 2010 Madison Plateau, western caldera, and the 2008-2009 Yellowstone Lake, eastern caldera, earthquake swarms are two examples representing respectively cascading relaxation of a uniform stress, and an example of highly concentrated stress perturbation induced by a migrating material. The repeating earthquake pattern methodology was then used to characterize the composition of the migrating material by modelling the migration time-space pattern with a experimental thermo-physical simulations of solidification of a fluid filled propagating dike. Comparison of our results with independent GPS deformation data suggests a most-likely model of rhyolitic-granitic magma intrusion along a vertical dike outlined by the pattern of earthquakes. The magma-hydrothermal mix was modeled with a temperature of 800°C-900°C and an average volumetric injection flux between 1.5 and 5 m3/s. Our interpretation is that the Yellowstone Lake swarm was caused by magma and hydrothermal fluids migrating laterally, at 1000 m per day, from ~12 km to 2 km depth and with the pattern of earthquake nucleation from south to north. The causative magmatic fluid came within a few km but did not reach the Earth's surface because of its low density contrast with the host rock. We also used multiplets for precise earthquake relocation using the P- and S-wave three-dimensional velocity models established previously for Yellowstone. Most of the repeating earthquakes are located in the northwestern part of the caldera and in the Hebgen Lake fault system, west of the caldera, that appear as the most active multiplet generator in Yellowstone. We are also evaluating multiplets for earthquake focal mechanism determinations and magmatic source property studies. The abnormal multiplets-triggering zone around the Hebgen Lake fault system, for example is also a research focus for multiplet stress simulation and we will present results on how multiplets can be used to investigate the volcano-tectonic stress interactions between the pre existing ~ 15 My Basin and Range normal faults and the superimposed effects of the 2 Mr Yellowstone volcanism on the pre-existing structures.

Cortical origin of the 2007 Mw = 6.2 Aysén earthquake: surface rupture evidence and paleoseismological assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villalobos, A.

2015-12-01

On 2007 April 21, a Mw = 6.2 earthquake hit the Aysén region, an area of low seismicity in southern Chile. This event corresponds to the main shock of a sequence of earthquakes that were felt from January 10, with a small earthquake of magnitude ML <3, to February 2008 as recurrent aftershocks. This area is characterized by the presence of the Liquiñe-Ofqui Fault System (LOFS), which corresponds to neotectonic feature and the main seismotectonic southern Chile. In this research we use improved sub-aqueous paleoseismological techniques with geomorphological evidence to constrain the seismogenic source of this event as cortical origin. It is established that the Punta Cola Fault, a dextral-reverse structure which exhibits in seismic profiles a complex fault zone with distinguished positive flower geometry, is responsible for the main shock. This fault caused vertical offsets that reached the seafloor generating fault scarps in a mass movement deposit triggered by the same earthquake. Following this idea, a model of surface rupture is proposed for this structure. Further evidence that this cortical phenomenon is not an isolated event in time is presented by paleoseismological trench-like mappings in sub-bottom profiles.

Stress drop variation of M > 4 earthquakes on the Blanco oceanic transform fault using a phase coherence method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, J. R.; Hawthorne, J.; Rost, S.; Wright, T. J.

2017-12-01

Earthquakes on oceanic transform faults often show unusual behaviour. They tend to occur in swarms, have large numbers of foreshocks, and have high stress drops. We estimate stress drops for approximately 60 M > 4 earthquakes along the Blanco oceanic transform fault, a right-lateral fault separating the Juan de Fuca and Pacific plates offshore of Oregon. We find stress drops with a median of 4.4±19.3MPa and examine how they vary with earthquake moment. We calculate stress drops using a recently developed method based on inter-station phase coherence. We compare seismic records of co-located earthquakes at a range of stations. At each station, we apply an empirical Green's function (eGf) approach to remove phase path effects and isolate the relative apparent source time functions. The apparent source time functions at each earthquake should vary among stations at periods shorter than a P wave's travel time across the earthquake rupture area. Therefore we compute the rupture length of the larger earthquake by identifying the frequency at which the relative apparent source time functions start to vary among stations, leading to low inter-station phase coherence. We determine a stress drop from the rupture length and moment of the larger earthquake. Our initial stress drop estimates increase with increasing moment, suggesting that earthquakes on the Blanco fault are not self-similar. However, these stress drops may be biased by several factors, including depth phases, trace alignment, and source co-location. We find that the inclusion of depth phases (such as pP) in the analysis time window has a negligible effect on the phase coherence of our relative apparent source time functions. We find that trace alignment must be accurate to within 0.05 s to allow us to identify variations in the apparent source time functions at periods relevant for M > 4 earthquakes. We check that the alignments are accurate enough by comparing P wave arrival times across groups of earthquakes. Finally, we note that the eGf path effect removal will be unsuccessful if earthquakes are too far apart. We therefore calculate relative earthquake locations from our estimated differential P wave arrival times, then we examine how our stress drop estimates vary with inter-earthquake distance.

Global variations of large megathrust earthquake rupture characteristics

PubMed Central

Kanamori, Hiroo

2018-01-01

Despite the surge of great earthquakes along subduction zones over the last decade and advances in observations and analysis techniques, it remains unclear whether earthquake complexity is primarily controlled by persistent fault properties or by dynamics of the failure process. We introduce the radiated energy enhancement factor (REEF), given by the ratio of an event’s directly measured radiated energy to the calculated minimum radiated energy for a source with the same seismic moment and duration, to quantify the rupture complexity. The REEF measurements for 119 large [moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 to 9.2] megathrust earthquakes distributed globally show marked systematic regional patterns, suggesting that the rupture complexity is strongly influenced by persistent geological factors. We characterize this as the existence of smooth and rough rupture patches with varying interpatch separation, along with failure dynamics producing triggering interactions that augment the regional influences on large events. We present an improved asperity scenario incorporating both effects and categorize global subduction zones and great earthquakes based on their REEF values and slip patterns. Giant earthquakes rupturing over several hundred kilometers can occur in regions with low-REEF patches and small interpatch spacing, such as for the 1960 Chile, 1964 Alaska, and 2011 Tohoku earthquakes, or in regions with high-REEF patches and large interpatch spacing as in the case for the 2004 Sumatra and 1906 Ecuador-Colombia earthquakes. Thus, combining seismic magnitude Mw and REEF, we provide a quantitative framework to better represent the span of rupture characteristics of great earthquakes and to understand global seismicity. PMID:29750186

Application of an improved spectral decomposition method to examine earthquake source scaling in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trugman, Daniel T.; Shearer, Peter M.

2017-04-01

Earthquake source spectra contain fundamental information about the dynamics of earthquake rupture. However, the inherent tradeoffs in separating source and path effects, when combined with limitations in recorded signal bandwidth, make it challenging to obtain reliable source spectral estimates for large earthquake data sets. We present here a stable and statistically robust spectral decomposition method that iteratively partitions the observed waveform spectra into source, receiver, and path terms. Unlike previous methods of its kind, our new approach provides formal uncertainty estimates and does not assume self-similar scaling in earthquake source properties. Its computational efficiency allows us to examine large data sets (tens of thousands of earthquakes) that would be impractical to analyze using standard empirical Green's function-based approaches. We apply the spectral decomposition technique to P wave spectra from five areas of active contemporary seismicity in Southern California: the Yuha Desert, the San Jacinto Fault, and the Big Bear, Landers, and Hector Mine regions of the Mojave Desert. We show that the source spectra are generally consistent with an increase in median Brune-type stress drop with seismic moment but that this observed deviation from self-similar scaling is both model dependent and varies in strength from region to region. We also present evidence for significant variations in median stress drop and stress drop variability on regional and local length scales. These results both contribute to our current understanding of earthquake source physics and have practical implications for the next generation of ground motion prediction assessments.

Source parameters of the 2013 Lushan, Sichuan, Ms7.0 earthquake and estimation of the near-fault strong ground motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, L.; Zhou, L.; Liu, J.

2013-12-01

Abstract: The April 20, 2013 Ms 7.0 earthquake in Lushan city, Sichuan province of China occurred as the result of east-west oriented reverse-type motion on a north-south striking fault. The source location suggests the event occurred on the Southern part of Longmenshan fault at a depth of 13km. The Lushan earthquake caused a great of loss of property and 196 deaths. The maximum intensity is up to VIII to IX at Boxing and Lushan city, which are located in the meizoseismal area. In this study, we analyzed the dynamic source process and calculated source spectral parameters, estimated the strong ground motion in the near-fault field based on the Brune's circle model at first. A dynamical composite source model (DCSM) has been developed further to simulate the near-fault strong ground motion with associated fault rupture properties at Boxing and Lushan city, respectively. The results indicate that the frictional undershoot behavior in the dynamic source process of Lushan earthquake, which is actually different from the overshoot activity of the Wenchuan earthquake. Based on the simulated results of the near-fault strong ground motion, described the intensity distribution of the Lushan earthquake field. The simulated intensity indicated that, the maximum intensity value is IX, and region with and above VII almost 16,000km2, which is consistence with observation intensity published online by China Earthquake Administration (CEA) on April 25. Moreover, the numerical modeling developed in this study has great application in the strong ground motion prediction and intensity estimation for the earthquake rescue purpose. In fact, the estimation methods based on the empirical relationship and numerical modeling developed in this study has great application in the strong ground motion prediction for the earthquake source process understand purpose. Keywords: Lushan, Ms7.0 earthquake; near-fault strong ground motion; DCSM; simulated intensity

Ground Motion Characteristics of Induced Earthquakes in Central North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atkinson, G. M.; Assatourians, K.; Novakovic, M.

2017-12-01

The ground motion characteristics of induced earthquakes in central North America are investigated based on empirical analysis of a compiled database of 4,000,000 digital ground-motion records from events in induced-seismicity regions (especially Oklahoma). Ground-motion amplitudes are characterized non-parametrically by computing median amplitudes and their variability in magnitude-distance bins. We also use inversion techniques to solve for regional source, attenuation and site response effects. Ground motion models are used to interpret the observations and compare the source and attenuation attributes of induced earthquakes to those of their natural counterparts. Significant conclusions are that the stress parameter that controls the strength of high-frequency radiation is similar for induced earthquakes (depth of h 5 km) and shallow (h 5 km) natural earthquakes. By contrast, deeper natural earthquakes (h 10 km) have stronger high-frequency ground motions. At distances close to the epicenter, a greater focal depth (which increases distance from the hypocenter) counterbalances the effects of a larger stress parameter, resulting in motions of similar strength close to the epicenter, regardless of event depth. The felt effects of induced versus natural earthquakes are also investigated using USGS "Did You Feel It?" reports; 400,000 reports from natural events and 100,000 reports from induced events are considered. The felt reports confirm the trends that we expect based on ground-motion modeling, considering the offsetting effects of the stress parameter versus focal depth in controlling the strength of motions near the epicenter. Specifically, felt intensity for a given magnitude is similar near the epicenter, on average, for all event types and depths. At distances more than 10 km from the epicenter, deeper events are felt more strongly than shallow events. These ground-motion attributes imply that the induced-seismicity hazard is most critical for facilities in close proximity (<10 km) to oil and gas operations.

Characterization of earthquake-induced ground motion from the L'Aquila seismic sequence of 2009, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malagnini, Luca; Akinci, Aybige; Mayeda, Kevin; Munafo', Irene; Herrmann, Robert B.; Mercuri, Alessia

2011-01-01

Based only on weak-motion data, we carried out a combined study on region-specific source scaling and crustal attenuation in the Central Apennines (Italy). Our goal was to obtain a reappraisal of the existing predictive relationships for the ground motion, and to test them against the strong-motion data [peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and spectral acceleration (SA)] gathered during the Mw 6.15 L'Aquila earthquake (2009 April 6, 01:32 UTC). The L'Aquila main shock was not part of the predictive study, and the validation test was an extrapolation to one magnitude unit above the largest earthquake of the calibration data set. The regional attenuation was determined through a set of regressions on a data set of 12 777 high-quality, high-gain waveforms with excellent S/N ratios (4259 vertical and 8518 horizontal time histories). Seismograms were selected from the recordings of 170 foreshocks and aftershocks of the sequence (the complete set of all earthquakes with ML≥ 3.0, from 2008 October 1 to 2010 May 10). All waveforms were downloaded from the ISIDe web page (), a web site maintained by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). Weak-motion data were used to obtain a moment tensor solution, as well as a coda-based moment-rate source spectrum, for each one of the 170 events of the L'Aquila sequence (2.8 ≤Mw≤ 6.15). Source spectra were used to verify the good agreement with the source scaling of the Colfiorito seismic sequence of 1997-1998 recently described by Malagnini (2008). Finally, results on source excitation and crustal attenuation were used to produce the absolute site terms for the 23 stations located within ˜80 km of the epicentral area. The complete set of spectral corrections (crustal attenuation and absolute site effects) was used to implement a fast and accurate tool for the automatic computation of moment magnitudes in the Central Apennines.

A rapid estimation of near field tsunami run-up

USGS Publications Warehouse

Riqueime, Sebastian; Fuentes, Mauricio; Hayes, Gavin; Campos, Jamie

2015-01-01

Many efforts have been made to quickly estimate the maximum run-up height of tsunamis associated with large earthquakes. This is a difficult task, because of the time it takes to construct a tsunami model using real time data from the source. It is possible to construct a database of potential seismic sources and their corresponding tsunami a priori.However, such models are generally based on uniform slip distributions and thus oversimplify the knowledge of the earthquake source. Here, we show how to predict tsunami run-up from any seismic source model using an analytic solution, that was specifically designed for subduction zones with a well defined geometry, i.e., Chile, Japan, Nicaragua, Alaska. The main idea of this work is to provide a tool for emergency response, trading off accuracy for speed. The solutions we present for large earthquakes appear promising. Here, run-up models are computed for: The 1992 Mw 7.7 Nicaragua Earthquake, the 2001 Mw 8.4 Perú Earthquake, the 2003Mw 8.3 Hokkaido Earthquake, the 2007 Mw 8.1 Perú Earthquake, the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule Earthquake, the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake and the recent 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique Earthquake. The maximum run-up estimations are consistent with measurements made inland after each event, with a peak of 9 m for Nicaragua, 8 m for Perú (2001), 32 m for Maule, 41 m for Tohoku, and 4.1 m for Iquique. Considering recent advances made in the analysis of real time GPS data and the ability to rapidly resolve the finiteness of a large earthquake close to existing GPS networks, it will be possible in the near future to perform these calculations within the first minutes after the occurrence of similar events. Thus, such calculations will provide faster run-up information than is available from existing uniform-slip seismic source databases or past events of pre-modeled seismic sources.

Seismic reflection imaging with conventional and unconventional sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiros Ugalde, Diego Alonso

This manuscript reports the results of research using both conventional and unconventional energy sources as well as conventional and unconventional analysis to image crustal structure using reflected seismic waves. The work presented here includes the use of explosions to investigate the Taiwanese lithosphere, the use of 'noise' from railroads to investigate the shallow subsurface of the Rio Grande rift, and the use of microearthquakes to image subsurface structure near an active fault zone within the Appalachian mountains. Chapter 1 uses recordings from the land refraction and wide-angle reflection component of the Taiwan Integrated Geodynamic Research (TAIGER) project. The most prominent reflection feature imaged by these surveys is an anomalously strong reflector found in northeastern Taiwan. The goal of this chapter is to analyze the TAIGER recordings and to place the reflector into a geologic framework that fits with the modern tectonic kinematics of the region. Chapter 2 uses railroad traffic as a source for reflection profiling within the Rio Grande rift. Here the railroad recordings are treated in an analogous way to Vibroseis recordings. These results suggest that railroad noise in general can be a valuable new tool in imaging and characterizing the shallow subsurface in environmental and geotechnical studies. In chapters 3 and 4, earthquakes serve as the seismic imaging source. In these studies the methodology of Vertical Seismic Profiling (VSP) is borrowed from the oil and gas industry to develop reflection images. In chapter 3, a single earthquake is used to probe a small area beneath Waterboro, Maine. In chapter 4, the same method is applied to multiple earthquakes to take advantage of the increased redundancy that results from multiple events illuminating the same structure. The latter study demonstrates how dense arrays can be a powerful new tool for delineating, and monitoring temporal changes of deep structure in areas characterized by significant seismic activity.

Seismicity around the source areas of the 1946 Nankai and the 1944 Tonankai earthquakes detected from data recorded at DONET stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, K.; Kamiya, S.; Takahashi, N.

2016-12-01

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) installed DONET (Dense Oceanfloor Network System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis) off the Kii Peninsula, southwest of Japan, to monitor earthquakes and tsunamis. Stations of DONET1, which are distributed in Kumano-nada, and DONET2, which are distributed off Muroto, were installed by August 2011 and April 2016, respectively. After the installation of all of the 51 stations, DONET was transferred to National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). NIED and JAMSTEC have now corroborated in the operation of DONET since April 2016. To investigate the seismicity around the source areas of the 1946 Nankai and the 1944 Tonankai earthquakes, we detected earthquakes from the records of the broadband seismometers installed to DONET. Because DONET stations are apart from land stations, we can detect smaller earthquakes than by using only land stations. It is important for understanding the stress state and seismogenic mechanism to monitoring the spatial-temporal seismicity change. In this study we purpose to evaluate to the seismicity around the source areas of the Nankai and the Tonankai earthquakes by using our earthquake catalogue. The frequency-magnitude relationships of earthquakes in the areas of DONET1&2 had an almost constant slope of about -1 for earthquakes of ML larger than 1.5 and 2.5, satisfying the Gutenberg-Richter law, and the slope of smaller earthquakes approached 0, reflecting the detection limits. While the most of the earthquakes occurred in the aftershock area of the 2004 off the Kii Peninsula earthquakes, very limited activity was detected in the source region of the Nankai and Tonankai earthquake except for the large earthquake (MJMA = 6.5) on 1st April 2016 and its aftershocks. We will evaluate the detection limit of the earthquake in more detail and investigate the spatial-temporal seismicity change with waiting the data store.

Tilt precursors before earthquakes on the San Andreas fault, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnston, M.J.S.; Mortensen, C.E.

1974-01-01

An array of 14 biaxial shallow-borehole tiltmeters (at 10-7 radian sensitivity) has been installed along 85 kilometers of the San Andreas fault during the past year. Earthquake-related changes in tilt have been simultaneously observed on up to four independent instruments. At earthquake distances greater than 10 earthquake source dimensions, there are few clear indications of tilt change. For the four instruments with the longest records (>10 months), 26 earthquakes have occurred since July 1973 with at least one instrument closer than 10 source dimensions and 8 earthquakes with more than one instrument within that distance. Precursors in tilt direction have been observed before more than 10 earthquakes or groups of earthquakes, and no similar effect has yet been seen without the occurrence of an earthquake.

Frequency-Dependent Rupture Processes for the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyake, H.

2012-12-01

The 2011 Tohoku earthquake is characterized by frequency-dependent rupture process [e.g., Ide et al., 2011; Wang and Mori, 2011; Yao et al., 2011]. For understanding rupture dynamics of this earthquake, it is extremely important to investigate wave-based source inversions for various frequency bands. The above frequency-dependent characteristics have been derived from teleseismic analyses. This study challenges to infer frequency-dependent rupture processes from strong motion waveforms of K-NET and KiK-net stations. The observations suggested three or more S-wave phases, and ground velocities at several near-source stations showed different arrivals of their long- and short-period components. We performed complex source spectral inversions with frequency-dependent phase weighting developed by Miyake et al. [2002]. The technique idealizes both the coherent and stochastic summation of waveforms using empirical Green's functions. Due to the limitation of signal-to-noise ratio of the empirical Green's functions, the analyzed frequency bands were set within 0.05-10 Hz. We assumed a fault plane with 480 km in length by 180 km in width with a single time window for rupture following Koketsu et al. [2011] and Asano and Iwata [2012]. The inversion revealed source ruptures expanding from the hypocenter, and generated sharp slip-velocity intensities at the down-dip edge. In addition to test the effects of empirical/hybrid Green's functions and with/without rupture front constraints on the inverted solutions, we will discuss distributions of slip-velocity intensity and a progression of wave generation with increasing frequency.

The effect of segmented fault zones on earthquake rupture propagation and termination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Y.

2017-12-01

A fundamental question in earthquake source physics is what can control the nucleation and termination of an earthquake rupture. Besides stress heterogeneities and variations in frictional properties, damaged fault zones (DFZs) that surround major strike-slip faults can contribute significantly to earthquake rupture propagation. Previous earthquake rupture simulations usually characterize DFZs as several-hundred-meter-wide layers with lower seismic velocities than host rocks, and find earthquake ruptures in DFZs can exhibit slip pulses and oscillating rupture speeds that ultimately enhance high-frequency ground motions. However, real DFZs are more complex than the uniform low-velocity structures, and show along-strike variations of damages that may be correlated with historical earthquake ruptures. These segmented structures can either prohibit or assist rupture propagation and significantly affect the final sizes of earthquakes. For example, recent dense array data recorded at the San Jacinto fault zone suggests the existence of three prominent DFZs across the Anza seismic gap and the south section of the Clark branch, while no prominent DFZs were identified near the ends of the Anza seismic gap. To better understand earthquake rupture in segmented fault zones, we will present dynamic rupture simulations that calculate the time-varying rupture process physically by considering the interactions between fault stresses, fault frictional properties, and material heterogeneities. We will show that whether an earthquake rupture can break through the intact rock outside the DFZ depend on the nucleation size of the earthquake and the rupture propagation distance in the DFZ. Moreover, material properties of the DFZ, stress conditions along the fault, and friction properties of the fault also have a critical impact on rupture propagation and termination. We will also present scenarios of San Jacinto earthquake ruptures and show the parameter space that is favorable for rupture propagation through the Anza seismic gap. Our results suggest that a priori knowledge of properties of segmented fault zones is of great importance for predicting sizes of future large earthquakes on major faults.

Temporal and spatial heterogeneity of rupture process application in shakemaps of Yushu Ms7.1 earthquake, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kun, C.

2015-12-01

Studies have shown that estimates of ground motion parameter from ground motion attenuation relationship often greater than the observed value, mainly because multiple ruptures of the big earthquake reduce the source pulse height of source time function. In the absence of real-time data of the station after the earthquake, this paper attempts to make some constraints from the source, to improve the accuracy of shakemaps. Causative fault of Yushu Ms 7.1 earthquake is vertical approximately (dip 83 °), and source process in time and space was dispersive distinctly. Main shock of Yushu Ms7.1 earthquake can be divided into several sub-events based on source process of this earthquake. Magnitude of each sub-events depended on each area under the curve of source pulse of source time function, and location derived from source process of each sub-event. We use ShakeMap method with considering the site effect to generate shakeMap for each sub-event, respectively. Finally, ShakeMaps of mainshock can be aquired from superposition of shakemaps for all the sub-events in space. Shakemaps based on surface rupture of causative Fault from field survey can also be derived for mainshock with only one magnitude. We compare ShakeMaps of both the above methods with Intensity of investigation. Comparisons show that decomposition method of main shock more accurately reflect the shake of earthquake in near-field, but for far field the shake is controlled by the weakening influence of the source, the estimated Ⅵ area was smaller than the intensity of the actual investigation. Perhaps seismic intensity in far-field may be related to the increasing seismic duration for the two events. In general, decomposition method of main shock based on source process, considering shakemap of each sub-event, is feasible for disaster emergency response, decision-making and rapid Disaster Assessment after the earthquake.

The evaluation of the earthquake hazard using the exponential distribution method for different seismic source regions in and around Ağrı

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: ybayrak@agri.edu.tr; Türker, Tuğba, E-mail: tturker@ktu.edu.tr

The aim of this study; were determined of the earthquake hazard using the exponential distribution method for different seismic sources of the Ağrı and vicinity. A homogeneous earthquake catalog has been examined for 1900-2015 (the instrumental period) with 456 earthquake data for Ağrı and vicinity. Catalog; Bogazici University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (Burke), National Earthquake Monitoring Center (NEMC), TUBITAK, TURKNET the International Seismological Center (ISC), Seismological Research Institute (IRIS) has been created using different catalogs like. Ağrı and vicinity are divided into 7 different seismic source regions with epicenter distribution of formed earthquakes in the instrumental period, focalmore » mechanism solutions, and existing tectonic structures. In the study, the average magnitude value are calculated according to the specified magnitude ranges for 7 different seismic source region. According to the estimated calculations for 7 different seismic source regions, the biggest difference corresponding with the classes of determined magnitudes between observed and expected cumulative probabilities are determined. The recurrence period and earthquake occurrence number per year are estimated of occurring earthquakes in the Ağrı and vicinity. As a result, 7 different seismic source regions are determined occurrence probabilities of an earthquake 3.2 magnitude, Region 1 was greater than 6.7 magnitude, Region 2 was greater than than 4.7 magnitude, Region 3 was greater than 5.2 magnitude, Region 4 was greater than 6.2 magnitude, Region 5 was greater than 5.7 magnitude, Region 6 was greater than 7.2 magnitude, Region 7 was greater than 6.2 magnitude. The highest observed magnitude 7 different seismic source regions of Ağrı and vicinity are estimated 7 magnitude in Region 6. Region 6 are determined according to determining magnitudes, occurrence years of earthquakes in the future years, respectively, 7.2 magnitude was in 158 years, 6.7 magnitude was in 70 years, 6.2 magnitude was in 31 years, 5.7 magnitude was in 13 years, 5.2 magnitude was in 6 years.« less

The evaluation of the earthquake hazard using the exponential distribution method for different seismic source regions in and around Aǧrı

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayrak, Yusuf; Türker, Tuǧba

2016-04-01

The aim of this study; were determined of the earthquake hazard using the exponential distribution method for different seismic sources of the Aǧrı and vicinity. A homogeneous earthquake catalog has been examined for 1900-2015 (the instrumental period) with 456 earthquake data for Aǧrı and vicinity. Catalog; Bogazici University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (Burke), National Earthquake Monitoring Center (NEMC), TUBITAK, TURKNET the International Seismological Center (ISC), Seismological Research Institute (IRIS) has been created using different catalogs like. Aǧrı and vicinity are divided into 7 different seismic source regions with epicenter distribution of formed earthquakes in the instrumental period, focal mechanism solutions, and existing tectonic structures. In the study, the average magnitude value are calculated according to the specified magnitude ranges for 7 different seismic source region. According to the estimated calculations for 7 different seismic source regions, the biggest difference corresponding with the classes of determined magnitudes between observed and expected cumulative probabilities are determined. The recurrence period and earthquake occurrence number per year are estimated of occurring earthquakes in the Aǧrı and vicinity. As a result, 7 different seismic source regions are determined occurrence probabilities of an earthquake 3.2 magnitude, Region 1 was greater than 6.7 magnitude, Region 2 was greater than than 4.7 magnitude, Region 3 was greater than 5.2 magnitude, Region 4 was greater than 6.2 magnitude, Region 5 was greater than 5.7 magnitude, Region 6 was greater than 7.2 magnitude, Region 7 was greater than 6.2 magnitude. The highest observed magnitude 7 different seismic source regions of Aǧrı and vicinity are estimated 7 magnitude in Region 6. Region 6 are determined according to determining magnitudes, occurrence years of earthquakes in the future years, respectively, 7.2 magnitude was in 158 years, 6.7 magnitude was in 70 years, 6.2 magnitude was in 31 years, 5.7 magnitude was in 13 years, 5.2 magnitude was in 6 years.

Recent Mega-Thrust Tsunamigenic Earthquakes and PTHA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorito, S.

2013-05-01

The occurrence of several mega-thrust tsunamigenic earthquakes in the last decade, including but not limited to the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman, the 2010 Maule, and 2011 Tohoku earthquakes, has been a dramatic reminder of the limitations in our capability of assessing earthquake and tsunami hazard and risk. However, the increasingly high-quality geophysical observational networks allowed the retrieval of most accurate than ever models of the rupture process of mega-thrust earthquakes, thus paving the way for future improved hazard assessments. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) methodology, in particular, is less mature than its seismic counterpart, PSHA. Worldwide recent research efforts of the tsunami science community allowed to start filling this gap, and to define some best practices that are being progressively employed in PTHA for different regions and coasts at threat. In the first part of my talk, I will briefly review some rupture models of recent mega-thrust earthquakes, and highlight some of their surprising features that likely result in bigger error bars associated to PTHA results. More specifically, recent events of unexpected size at a given location, and with unexpected rupture process features, posed first-order open questions which prevent the definition of an heterogeneous rupture probability along a subduction zone, despite of several recent promising results on the subduction zone seismic cycle. In the second part of the talk, I will dig a bit more into a specific ongoing effort for improving PTHA methods, in particular as regards epistemic and aleatory uncertainties determination, and the computational PTHA feasibility when considering the full assumed source variability. Only logic trees are usually explicated in PTHA studies, accounting for different possible assumptions on the source zone properties and behavior. The selection of the earthquakes to be actually modelled is then in general made on a qualitative basis or remains implicit, despite different methods like event trees have been used for different applications. I will define a quite general PTHA framework, based on the mixed use of logic and event trees. I will first discuss a particular class of epistemic uncertainties, i.e. those related to the parametric fault characterization in terms of geometry, kinematics, and assessment of activity rates. A systematic classification in six justification levels of epistemic uncertainty related with the existence and behaviour of fault sources will be presented. Then, a particular branch of the logic tree is chosen in order to discuss just the aleatory variability of earthquake parameters, represented with an event tree. Even so, PTHA based on numerical scenarios is a too demanding computational task, particularly when probabilistic inundation maps are needed. For trying to reduce the computational burden without under-representing the source variability, the event tree is first constructed by taking care of densely (over-)sampling the earthquake parameter space, and then the earthquakes are filtered basing on their associated tsunami impact offshore, before calculating inundation maps. I'll describe this approach by means of a case study in the Mediterranean Sea, namely the PTHA for some locations of Eastern Sicily coasts and Southern Crete coast due to potential subduction earthquakes occurring on the Hellenic Arc.

Anomalies of rupture velocity in deep earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, M.; Yagi, Y.

2010-12-01

Explaining deep seismicity is a long-standing challenge in earth science. Deeper than 300 km, the occurrence rate of earthquakes with depth remains at a low level until ~530 km depth, then rises until ~600 km, finally terminate near 700 km. Given the difficulty of estimating fracture properties and observing the stress field in the mantle transition zone (410-660 km), the seismic source processes of deep earthquakes are the most important information for understanding the distribution of deep seismicity. However, in a compilation of seismic source models of deep earthquakes, the source parameters for individual deep earthquakes are quite varied [Frohlich, 2006]. Rupture velocities for deep earthquakes estimated using seismic waveforms range from 0.3 to 0.9Vs, where Vs is the shear wave velocity, a considerably wider range than the velocities for shallow earthquakes. The uncertainty of seismic source models prevents us from determining the main characteristics of the rupture process and understanding the physical mechanisms of deep earthquakes. Recently, the back projection method has been used to derive a detailed and stable seismic source image from dense seismic network observations [e.g., Ishii et al., 2005; Walker et al., 2005]. Using this method, we can obtain an image of the seismic source process from the observed data without a priori constraints or discarding parameters. We applied the back projection method to teleseismic P-waveforms of 24 large, deep earthquakes (moment magnitude Mw ≥ 7.0, depth ≥ 300 km) recorded since 1994 by the Data Management Center of the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS-DMC) and reported in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) catalog, and constructed seismic source models of deep earthquakes. By imaging the seismic rupture process for a set of recent deep earthquakes, we found that the rupture velocities are less than about 0.6Vs except in the depth range of 530 to 600 km. This is consistent with the depth variation of deep seismicity: it peaks between about 530 and 600 km, where the fast rupture earthquakes (greater than 0.7Vs) are observed. Similarly, aftershock productivity is particularly low from 300 to 550 km depth and increases markedly at depth greater than 550 km [e.g., Persh and Houston, 2004]. We propose that large fracture surface energy (Gc) value for deep earthquakes generally prevent the acceleration of dynamic rupture propagation and generation of earthquakes between 300 and 700 km depth, whereas small Gc value in the exceptional depth range promote dynamic rupture propagation and explain the seismicity peak near 600 km.

Investigation of the relationship between radon anomalıes in deep water resources near Akşehir fault zone and the radial distances of the sources to an earthquake center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gümüş, Ayla; Yalım, Hüseyin Ali

2018-02-01

Radon emanation occurs all the rocks and earth containing uranium element. Anomalies in radon concentrations before earthquakes are observed in fault lines, geothermal sources, uranium deposits, volcanic movements. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between the radon anomalies in water resources and the radial distances of the sources to the earthquake center. For this purpose, radon concentrations of 9 different deep water sources near Akşehir fault line were determined by taking samples with monthly periods for two years. The relationship between the radon anomalies and the radial distances of the sources to the earthquake center was obtained for the sources.

Updating the USGS seismic hazard maps for Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, Charles; Briggs, Richard; Wesson, Robert L.; Petersen, Mark D.

2015-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey makes probabilistic seismic hazard maps and engineering design maps for building codes, emergency planning, risk management, and many other applications. The methodology considers all known earthquake sources with their associated magnitude and rate distributions. Specific faults can be modeled if slip-rate or recurrence information is available. Otherwise, areal sources are developed from earthquake catalogs or GPS data. Sources are combined with ground-motion estimates to compute the hazard. The current maps for Alaska were developed in 2007, and included modeled sources for the Alaska-Aleutian megathrust, a few crustal faults, and areal seismicity sources. The megathrust was modeled as a segmented dipping plane with segmentation largely derived from the slip patches of past earthquakes. Some megathrust deformation is aseismic, so recurrence was estimated from seismic history rather than plate rates. Crustal faults included the Fairweather-Queen Charlotte system, the Denali–Totschunda system, the Castle Mountain fault, two faults on Kodiak Island, and the Transition fault, with recurrence estimated from geologic data. Areal seismicity sources were developed for Benioff-zone earthquakes and for crustal earthquakes not associated with modeled faults. We review the current state of knowledge in Alaska from a seismic-hazard perspective, in anticipation of future updates of the maps. Updated source models will consider revised seismicity catalogs, new information on crustal faults, new GPS data, and new thinking on megathrust recurrence, segmentation, and geometry. Revised ground-motion models will provide up-to-date shaking estimates for crustal earthquakes and subduction earthquakes in Alaska.

High Attenuation Rate for Shallow, Small Earthquakes in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Si, Hongjun; Koketsu, Kazuki; Miyake, Hiroe

2017-09-01

We compared the attenuation characteristics of peak ground accelerations (PGAs) and velocities (PGVs) of strong motion from shallow, small earthquakes that occurred in Japan with those predicted by the equations of Si and Midorikawa (J Struct Constr Eng 523:63-70, 1999). The observed PGAs and PGVs at stations far from the seismic source decayed more rapidly than the predicted ones. The same tendencies have been reported for deep, moderate, and large earthquakes, but not for shallow, moderate, and large earthquakes. This indicates that the peak values of ground motion from shallow, small earthquakes attenuate more steeply than those from shallow, moderate or large earthquakes. To investigate the reason for this difference, we numerically simulated strong ground motion for point sources of M w 4 and 6 earthquakes using a 2D finite difference method. The analyses of the synthetic waveforms suggested that the above differences are caused by surface waves, which are predominant at stations far from the seismic source for shallow, moderate earthquakes but not for shallow, small earthquakes. Thus, although loss due to reflection at the boundaries of the discontinuous Earth structure occurs in all shallow earthquakes, the apparent attenuation rate for a moderate or large earthquake is essentially the same as that of body waves propagating in a homogeneous medium due to the dominance of surface waves.

Best Practices in Physics-Based Fault Rupture Models for Seismic Hazard Assessment of Nuclear Installations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalguer, Luis A.; Fukushima, Yoshimitsu; Irikura, Kojiro; Wu, Changjiang

2017-09-01

Inspired by the first workshop on Best Practices in Physics-Based Fault Rupture Models for Seismic Hazard Assessment of Nuclear Installations (BestPSHANI) conducted by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on 18-20 November, 2015 in Vienna (http://www-pub.iaea.org/iaeameetings/50896/BestPSHANI), this PAGEOPH topical volume collects several extended articles from this workshop as well as several new contributions. A total of 17 papers have been selected on topics ranging from the seismological aspects of earthquake cycle simulations for source-scaling evaluation, seismic source characterization, source inversion and ground motion modeling (based on finite fault rupture using dynamic, kinematic, stochastic and empirical Green's functions approaches) to the engineering application of simulated ground motion for the analysis of seismic response of structures. These contributions include applications to real earthquakes and description of current practice to assess seismic hazard in terms of nuclear safety in low seismicity areas, as well as proposals for physics-based hazard assessment for critical structures near large earthquakes. Collectively, the papers of this volume highlight the usefulness of physics-based models to evaluate and understand the physical causes of observed and empirical data, as well as to predict ground motion beyond the range of recorded data. Relevant importance is given on the validation and verification of the models by comparing synthetic results with observed data and empirical models.

Rapid earthquake characterization using MEMS accelerometers and volunteer hosts following the M 7.2 Darfield, New Zealand, Earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lawrence, J. F.; Cochran, E.S.; Chung, A.; Kaiser, A.; Christensen, C. M.; Allen, R.; Baker, J.W.; Fry, B.; Heaton, T.; Kilb, Debi; Kohler, M.D.; Taufer, M.

2014-01-01

We test the feasibility of rapidly detecting and characterizing earthquakes with the Quake‐Catcher Network (QCN) that connects low‐cost microelectromechanical systems accelerometers to a network of volunteer‐owned, Internet‐connected computers. Following the 3 September 2010 M 7.2 Darfield, New Zealand, earthquake we installed over 180 QCN sensors in the Christchurch region to record the aftershock sequence. The sensors are monitored continuously by the host computer and send trigger reports to the central server. The central server correlates incoming triggers to detect when an earthquake has occurred. The location and magnitude are then rapidly estimated from a minimal set of received ground‐motion parameters. Full seismic time series are typically not retrieved for tens of minutes or even hours after an event. We benchmark the QCN real‐time detection performance against the GNS Science GeoNet earthquake catalog. Under normal network operations, QCN detects and characterizes earthquakes within 9.1 s of the earthquake rupture and determines the magnitude within 1 magnitude unit of that reported in the GNS catalog for 90% of the detections.

Strong correlation between stress drop and peak ground acceleration for recent M1–4 earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area

DOE PAGES

Trugman, Daniel Taylor; Shearer, Peter M.

2018-03-06

Theoretical and observational studies suggest that between-event variability in the median ground motions of larger ( M≥5 ) earthquakes is controlled primarily by the dynamic properties of the earthquake source, such as Brune-type stress drop. Analogous results remain equivocal for smaller events due to the lack of comprehensive and overlapping ground-motion and source-parameter datasets in this regime. Here in this paper, we investigate the relationship between peak ground acceleration (PGA) and dynamic stress drop for a new dataset of 5297 earthquakes that occurred in the San Francisco Bay area from 2002 through 2016. For each event, we measure PGA onmore » horizontal-component channels of stations within 100 km and estimate stress drop from P-wave spectra recorded on vertical-component channels of the same stations. We then develop a nonparametric ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) applicable for the moderate (M 1–4) earthquakes in our study region, using a mixed-effects generalization of the Random Forest algorithm. We use the Random Forest GMPE to model the joint influence of magnitude, distance, and near-site effects on observed PGA. We observe a strong correlation between dynamic stress drop and the residual PGA of each event, with the events with higher-than-expected PGA associated with higher values of stress drop. The strength of this correlation increases as a function of magnitude but remains significant even for smaller magnitude events with corner frequencies that approach the observable bandwidth of the acceleration records. Mainshock events are characterized by systematically higher stress drop and PGA than aftershocks of equivalent magnitude. Coherent local variations in the distribution of dynamic stress drop provide observational constraints to support the future development of nonergodic GMPEs that account for variations in median stress drop at different source locations.« less

Strong correlation between stress drop and peak ground acceleration for recent M1–4 earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Trugman, Daniel Taylor; Shearer, Peter M.

Theoretical and observational studies suggest that between-event variability in the median ground motions of larger ( M≥5 ) earthquakes is controlled primarily by the dynamic properties of the earthquake source, such as Brune-type stress drop. Analogous results remain equivocal for smaller events due to the lack of comprehensive and overlapping ground-motion and source-parameter datasets in this regime. Here in this paper, we investigate the relationship between peak ground acceleration (PGA) and dynamic stress drop for a new dataset of 5297 earthquakes that occurred in the San Francisco Bay area from 2002 through 2016. For each event, we measure PGA onmore » horizontal-component channels of stations within 100 km and estimate stress drop from P-wave spectra recorded on vertical-component channels of the same stations. We then develop a nonparametric ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) applicable for the moderate (M 1–4) earthquakes in our study region, using a mixed-effects generalization of the Random Forest algorithm. We use the Random Forest GMPE to model the joint influence of magnitude, distance, and near-site effects on observed PGA. We observe a strong correlation between dynamic stress drop and the residual PGA of each event, with the events with higher-than-expected PGA associated with higher values of stress drop. The strength of this correlation increases as a function of magnitude but remains significant even for smaller magnitude events with corner frequencies that approach the observable bandwidth of the acceleration records. Mainshock events are characterized by systematically higher stress drop and PGA than aftershocks of equivalent magnitude. Coherent local variations in the distribution of dynamic stress drop provide observational constraints to support the future development of nonergodic GMPEs that account for variations in median stress drop at different source locations.« less

Sensitivity analysis of tall buildings in Semarang, Indonesia due to fault earthquakes with maximum 7 Mw

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partono, Windu; Pardoyo, Bambang; Atmanto, Indrastono Dwi; Azizah, Lisa; Chintami, Rouli Dian

2017-11-01

Fault is one of the dangerous earthquake sources that can cause building failure. A lot of buildings were collapsed caused by Yogyakarta (2006) and Pidie (2016) fault source earthquakes with maximum magnitude 6.4 Mw. Following the research conducted by Team for Revision of Seismic Hazard Maps of Indonesia 2010 and 2016, Lasem, Demak and Semarang faults are three closest earthquake sources surrounding Semarang. The ground motion from those three earthquake sources should be taken into account for structural design and evaluation. Most of tall buildings, with minimum 40 meter high, in Semarang were designed and constructed following the 2002 and 2012 Indonesian Seismic Code. This paper presents the result of sensitivity analysis research with emphasis on the prediction of deformation and inter-story drift of existing tall building within the city against fault earthquakes. The analysis was performed by conducting dynamic structural analysis of 8 (eight) tall buildings using modified acceleration time histories. The modified acceleration time histories were calculated for three fault earthquakes with magnitude from 6 Mw to 7 Mw. The modified acceleration time histories were implemented due to inadequate time histories data caused by those three fault earthquakes. Sensitivity analysis of building against earthquake can be predicted by evaluating surface response spectra calculated using seismic code and surface response spectra calculated from acceleration time histories from a specific earthquake event. If surface response spectra calculated using seismic code is greater than surface response spectra calculated from acceleration time histories the structure will stable enough to resist the earthquake force.

Seismogeodesy for rapid earthquake and tsunami characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bock, Y.

2016-12-01

Rapid estimation of earthquake magnitude and fault mechanism is critical for earthquake and tsunami warning systems. Traditionally, the monitoring of earthquakes and tsunamis has been based on seismic networks for estimating earthquake magnitude and slip, and tide gauges and deep-ocean buoys for direct measurement of tsunami waves. These methods are well developed for ocean basin-wide warnings but are not timely enough to protect vulnerable populations and infrastructure from the effects of local tsunamis, where waves may arrive within 15-30 minutes of earthquake onset time. Direct measurements of displacements by GPS networks at subduction zones allow for rapid magnitude and slip estimation in the near-source region, that are not affected by instrumental limitations and magnitude saturation experienced by local seismic networks. However, GPS displacements by themselves are too noisy for strict earthquake early warning (P-wave detection). Optimally combining high-rate GPS and seismic data (in particular, accelerometers that do not clip), referred to as seismogeodesy, provides a broadband instrument that does not clip in the near field, is impervious to magnitude saturation, and provides accurate real-time static and dynamic displacements and velocities in real time. Here we describe a NASA-funded effort to integrate GPS and seismogeodetic observations as part of NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii. It consists of a series of plug-in modules that allow for a hierarchy of rapid seismogeodetic products, including automatic P-wave picking, hypocenter estimation, S-wave prediction, magnitude scaling relationships based on P-wave amplitude (Pd) and peak ground displacement (PGD), finite-source CMT solutions and fault slip models as input for tsunami warnings and models. For the NOAA/NASA project, the modules are being integrated into an existing USGS Earthworm environment, currently limited to traditional seismic data. We are focused on a network of dozens of seismogeodetic stations available through the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (University of Washington), the Plate Boundary Observatory (UNAVCO) and the Pacific Northwest Geodetic Array (Central Washington University) as the basis for local tsunami warnings for a large subduction zone earthquake in Cascadia.

Aftershocks of the India Republic Day Earthquake: the MAEC/ISTAR Temporary Seismograph Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodin, P.; Horton, S.; Johnston, A.; Patterson, G.; Bollwerk, J.; Rydelek, P.; Steiner, G.; McGoldrick, C.; Budhbhatti, K. P.; Shah, R.; Macwan, N.

2001-05-01

The MW=7.7 Republic Day (26 January, 2001) earthquake on the Kachchh in western India initiated a strong sequence of small aftershocks. Seventeen days following the mainshock, we deployed a network of portable digital event recorders as a cooperative project of the Mid America Earthquake Center in the US and the Institute for Scientific and Technological Advanced Research. Our network consisted of 8 event-triggered Kinemetrics K2 seismographs with 6 data channels (3 accelerometer, 3 Mark L-28/3d seismometer) sampled at 200 Hz, and one continuously-recording Guralp CMG40TD broad-band seismometer sampled at 220 Hz. This network was in place for 18 days. Underlying our network deployment was the notion that because of its tectonic and geologic setting the Republic Day earthquake and its aftershocks might have source and/or propagation characteristics common to earthquakes in stable continental plate-interiors rather than those on plate boundaries or within continental mobile belts. Thus, our goals were to provide data that could be used to compare the Republic Day earthquake with other earthquakes. In particular, the objectives of our network deployment were: (1) to characterize the spatial distribution and occurrence rates of aftershocks, (2) to examine source characteristics of the aftershocks (stress-drops, focal mechanisms), (3) to study the effect of deep unconsolidated sediment on wave propagation, and (4) to determine if other faults (notably the Allah Bundh) were simultaneously active. Most of our sites were on Jurassic bedrock, and all were either free-field, or on the floor of light structures built on rock or with a thin soil cover. However, one of our stations was on a section of unconsolidated sediments hundreds of meters thick adjacent to a site that was subjected to shaking-induced sediment liquefaction during the mainshock. The largest aftershock reported by global networks was an MW=5.9 event on January 28, prior to our deployment. The largest aftershock we recorded was MW=5.3. Our network recorded signals from nearly 2000 earthquakes, all on-scale.

On near-source earthquake triggering

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsons, T.; Velasco, A.A.

2009-01-01

When one earthquake triggers others nearby, what connects them? Two processes are observed: static stress change from fault offset and dynamic stress changes from passing seismic waves. In the near-source region (r ??? 50 km for M ??? 5 sources) both processes may be operating, and since both mechanisms are expected to raise earthquake rates, it is difficult to isolate them. We thus compare explosions with earthquakes because only earthquakes cause significant static stress changes. We find that large explosions at the Nevada Test Site do not trigger earthquakes at rates comparable to similar magnitude earthquakes. Surface waves are associated with regional and long-range dynamic triggering, but we note that surface waves with low enough frequency to penetrate to depths where most aftershocks of the 1992 M = 5.7 Little Skull Mountain main shock occurred (???12 km) would not have developed significant amplitude within a 50-km radius. We therefore focus on the best candidate phases to cause local dynamic triggering, direct waves that pass through observed near-source aftershock clusters. We examine these phases, which arrived at the nearest (200-270 km) broadband station before the surface wave train and could thus be isolated for study. Direct comparison of spectral amplitudes of presurface wave arrivals shows that M ??? 5 explosions and earthquakes deliver the same peak dynamic stresses into the near-source crust. We conclude that a static stress change model can readily explain observed aftershock patterns, whereas it is difficult to attribute near-source triggering to a dynamic process because of the dearth of aftershocks near large explosions.

Overview of seismic potential in the central and eastern United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schweig, E.S.

1995-12-31

The seismic potential of any region can be framed in terms the locations of source zones, the frequency of earthquake occurrence for each source, and the maximum size earthquake that can be expect from each source. As delineated by modern and historical seismicity, the most important seismic source zones affecting the eastern United States include the New Madrid and Wabash Valley seismic zones of the central U.S., the southern Appalachians and Charleston, South Carolina, areas in the southeast, and the northern Appalachians and Adirondacks in the northeast. The most prominant of these in terms of current seismicity and historical seismicmore » moment release in the New Madrid seismic zone, which produced three earthquakes of moment magnitude {ge} 8 in 1811 and 1812. The frequency of earthquake recurrence can be examined using the instrumental record, the historical record, and the geological record. Each record covers a unique time period and has a different scale of temporal resolution and completeness of the data set. The Wabash Valley is an example where the long-term geological record indicates a greater potential than the instrumental and historical records. This points to the need to examine all of the evidence in any region in order to obtain a credible estimates of earthquake hazards. Although earthquake hazards may be dominated by mid-magnitude 6 earthquakes within the mapped seismic source zones, the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake is just the most recent example of the danger of assuming future events will occur on faults known to have had past events and how destructive such an earthquake can be.« less

Source modeling of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal (Gorkha) earthquake sequence: Implications for geodynamics and earthquake hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNamara, D. E.; Yeck, W. L.; Barnhart, W. D.; Schulte-Pelkum, V.; Bergman, E.; Adhikari, L. B.; Dixit, A.; Hough, S. E.; Benz, H. M.; Earle, P. S.

2017-09-01

The Gorkha earthquake on April 25th, 2015 was a long anticipated, low-angle thrust-faulting event on the shallow décollement between the India and Eurasia plates. We present a detailed multiple-event hypocenter relocation analysis of the Mw 7.8 Gorkha Nepal earthquake sequence, constrained by local seismic stations, and a geodetic rupture model based on InSAR and GPS data. We integrate these observations to place the Gorkha earthquake sequence into a seismotectonic context and evaluate potential earthquake hazard. Major results from this study include (1) a comprehensive catalog of calibrated hypocenters for the Gorkha earthquake sequence; (2) the Gorkha earthquake ruptured a 150 × 60 km patch of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), the décollement defining the plate boundary at depth, over an area surrounding but predominantly north of the capital city of Kathmandu (3) the distribution of aftershock seismicity surrounds the mainshock maximum slip patch; (4) aftershocks occur at or below the mainshock rupture plane with depths generally increasing to the north beneath the higher Himalaya, possibly outlining a 10-15 km thick subduction channel between the overriding Eurasian and subducting Indian plates; (5) the largest Mw 7.3 aftershock and the highest concentration of aftershocks occurred to the southeast the mainshock rupture, on a segment of the MHT décollement that was positively stressed towards failure; (6) the near surface portion of the MHT south of Kathmandu shows no aftershocks or slip during the mainshock. Results from this study characterize the details of the Gorkha earthquake sequence and provide constraints on where earthquake hazard remains high, and thus where future, damaging earthquakes may occur in this densely populated region. Up-dip segments of the MHT should be considered to be high hazard for future damaging earthquakes.

Links Between Earthquake Characteristics and Subducting Plate Heterogeneity in the 2016 Pedernales Ecuador Earthquake Rupture Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, L.; Mori, J. J.

2016-12-01

The collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates formed the Himalayas, the largest orogenic belt on the Earth. The entire region accommodates shallow earthquakes, while intermediate-depth earthquakes are concentrated at the eastern and western Himalayan syntaxis. Here we investigate the focal depths, fault plane solutions, and source rupture process for three earthquake sequences, which are located at the western, central and eastern regions of the Himalayan orogenic belt. The Pamir-Hindu Kush region is located at the western Himalayan syntaxis and is characterized by extreme shortening of the upper crust and strong interaction of various layers of the lithosphere. Many shallow earthquakes occur on the Main Pamir Thrust at focal depths shallower than 20 km, while intermediate-deep earthquakes are mostly located below 75 km. Large intermediate-depth earthquakes occur frequently at the western Himalayan syntaxis about every 10 years on average. The 2015 Nepal earthquake is located in the central Himalayas. It is a typical megathrust earthquake that occurred on the shallow portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). Many of the aftershocks are located above the MHT and illuminate faulting structures in the hanging wall with dip angles that are steeper than the MHT. These observations provide new constraints on the collision and uplift processes for the Himalaya orogenic belt. The Indo-Burma region is located south of the eastern Himalayan syntaxis, where the strike of the plate boundary suddenly changes from nearly east-west at the Himalayas to nearly north-south at the Burma Arc. The Burma arc subduction zone is a typical oblique plate convergence zone. The eastern boundary is the north-south striking dextral Sagaing fault, which hosts many shallow earthquakes with focal depth less than 25 km. In contrast, intermediate-depth earthquakes along the subduction zone reflect east-west trending reverse faulting.

Source modeling of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal (Gorkha) earthquake sequence: Implications for geodynamics and earthquake hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

McNamara, Daniel E.; Yeck, William; Barnhart, William D.; Schulte-Pelkum, V.; Bergman, E.; Adhikari, L. B.; Dixit, Amod; Hough, S.E.; Benz, Harley M.; Earle, Paul

2017-01-01

The Gorkha earthquake on April 25th, 2015 was a long anticipated, low-angle thrust-faulting event on the shallow décollement between the India and Eurasia plates. We present a detailed multiple-event hypocenter relocation analysis of the Mw 7.8 Gorkha Nepal earthquake sequence, constrained by local seismic stations, and a geodetic rupture model based on InSAR and GPS data. We integrate these observations to place the Gorkha earthquake sequence into a seismotectonic context and evaluate potential earthquake hazard.Major results from this study include (1) a comprehensive catalog of calibrated hypocenters for the Gorkha earthquake sequence; (2) the Gorkha earthquake ruptured a ~ 150 × 60 km patch of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), the décollement defining the plate boundary at depth, over an area surrounding but predominantly north of the capital city of Kathmandu (3) the distribution of aftershock seismicity surrounds the mainshock maximum slip patch; (4) aftershocks occur at or below the mainshock rupture plane with depths generally increasing to the north beneath the higher Himalaya, possibly outlining a 10–15 km thick subduction channel between the overriding Eurasian and subducting Indian plates; (5) the largest Mw 7.3 aftershock and the highest concentration of aftershocks occurred to the southeast the mainshock rupture, on a segment of the MHT décollement that was positively stressed towards failure; (6) the near surface portion of the MHT south of Kathmandu shows no aftershocks or slip during the mainshock. Results from this study characterize the details of the Gorkha earthquake sequence and provide constraints on where earthquake hazard remains high, and thus where future, damaging earthquakes may occur in this densely populated region. Up-dip segments of the MHT should be considered to be high hazard for future damaging earthquakes.

Rapid modeling of complex multi-fault ruptures with simplistic models from real-time GPS: Perspectives from the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crowell, B.; Melgar, D.

2017-12-01

The 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake is one of the most complex earthquakes in recent history, rupturing across at least 10 disparate faults with varying faulting styles, and exhibiting intricate surface deformation patterns. The complexity of this event has motivated the need for multidisciplinary geophysical studies to get at the underlying source physics to better inform earthquake hazards models in the future. However, events like Kaikoura beg the question of how well (or how poorly) such earthquakes can be modeled automatically in real-time and still satisfy the general public and emergency managers. To investigate this question, we perform a retrospective real-time GPS analysis of the Kaikoura earthquake with the G-FAST early warning module. We first perform simple point source models of the earthquake using peak ground displacement scaling and a coseismic offset based centroid moment tensor (CMT) inversion. We predict ground motions based on these point sources as well as simple finite faults determined from source scaling studies, and validate against true recordings of peak ground acceleration and velocity. Secondly, we perform a slip inversion based upon the CMT fault orientations and forward model near-field tsunami maximum expected wave heights to compare against available tide gauge records. We find remarkably good agreement between recorded and predicted ground motions when using a simple fault plane, with the majority of disagreement in ground motions being attributable to local site effects, not earthquake source complexity. Similarly, the near-field tsunami maximum amplitude predictions match tide gauge records well. We conclude that even though our models for the Kaikoura earthquake are devoid of rich source complexities, the CMT driven finite fault is a good enough "average" source and provides useful constraints for rapid forecasting of ground motion and near-field tsunami amplitudes.

Regional Characteristics of Stress State of Main Seismic Active Faults in Mid-Northern Part of Sichuan-Yunnan Block

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiwei, W.; Yaling, W.

2017-12-01

We restore the seismic source spectrums of 1012 earthquakes(2.0 ≤ ML ≤ 5.0) in the mid-northern part of Sichuan-Yunnan seismic block(26 ° N-33 ° N, 99 ° E-104 ° E),then calculate the source parameters.Based on the regional seismic tectonic background, the distribution of active faults and seismicity, the study area is divided into four statistical units (Z1 Jinshajiang and Litang fault zone, Z2 Xianshuihe fault zone, Z3 Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone, Z4 Lijiang-Xiaojinhe fault zone). Seismic source stress drop results show the following, (1)The stress at the end of the Jinshajiang fault is low, strong earthquake activity rare.Stress-strain loading deceases gradually from northwest to southeast along Litang fault, the northwest section which is relatively locked is more likely to accumulate strain than southeast section. (2)Stress drop of Z2 is divided by Kangding, the southern section is low and northern section is high. Southern section (Kangding-Shimian) is difficult to accumulate higher strain in the short term, but in northern section (Garzê-Kangding), moderate and strong earthquakes have not filled the gaps of seismic moment release, there is still a high stress accumulation in partial section. (3)High stress-drop events were concentrated on Z3, strain accumulation of this unit is strong, and stress level is the highest, earthquake risk is high. (4)On Z4, stress drop characteristics of different magnitude earthquakes are not the same, which is related to complex tectonic setting, the specific reasons still need to be discussed deeply.The study also show that, (1)Stress drops display a systematic change with different faults and locations, high stress-drop events occurs mostly on the fault intersection area. Faults without locking condition and mainly creep, are mainly characterized by low stress drop. (2)Contrasting to what is commonly thought that "strike-slip faults are not easy to accumulate stress ", Z2 and Z3 all exhibit high stress levels, which may be due to that the magnitude and intensity of medium-strong earthquakes are not enough to release the accumulated energy. On the other hand, when the tectonic unit blocking fault movement and its contribution to accumulation of stress play a key role, the earthquake of same magnitude will release higher stress drop.

Planar seismic source characterization models developed for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gülerce, Zeynep; Buğra Soyman, Kadir; Güner, Barış; Kaymakci, Nuretdin

2017-12-01

This contribution provides an updated planar seismic source characterization (SSC) model to be used in the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Istanbul. It defines planar rupture systems for the four main segments of the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) that are critical for the PSHA of Istanbul: segments covering the rupture zones of the 1999 Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes, central Marmara, and Ganos/Saros segments. In each rupture system, the source geometry is defined in terms of fault length, fault width, fault plane attitude, and segmentation points. Activity rates and the magnitude recurrence models for each rupture system are established by considering geological and geodetic constraints and are tested based on the observed seismicity that is associated with the rupture system. Uncertainty in the SSC model parameters (e.g., b value, maximum magnitude, slip rate, weights of the rupture scenarios) is considered, whereas the uncertainty in the fault geometry is not included in the logic tree. To acknowledge the effect of earthquakes that are not associated with the defined rupture systems on the hazard, a background zone is introduced and the seismicity rates in the background zone are calculated using smoothed-seismicity approach. The state-of-the-art SSC model presented here is the first fully documented and ready-to-use fault-based SSC model developed for the PSHA of Istanbul.

The Chiloé Mw 7.6 earthquake of 2016 December 25 in Southern Chile and its relation to the Mw 9.5 1960 Valdivia earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lange, Dietrich; Ruiz, Javier; Carrasco, Sebastián; Manríquez, Paula

2018-04-01

On 2016 December 25, an Mw 7.6 earthquake broke a portion of the Southern Chilean subduction zone south of Chiloé Island, located in the central part of the Mw 9.5 1960 Valdivia earthquake. This region is characterized by repeated earthquakes in 1960 and historical times with very sparse interseismic activity due to the subduction of a young (˜15 Ma), and therefore hot, oceanic plate. We estimate the coseismic slip distribution based on a kinematic finite-fault source model, and through joint inversion of teleseismic body waves and strong motion data. The coseismic slip model yields a total seismic moment of 3.94 × 1020 N.m that occurred over ˜30 s, with the rupture propagating mainly downdip, reaching a peak slip of ˜4.2 m. Regional moment tensor inversion of stronger aftershocks reveals thrust type faulting at depths of the plate interface. The fore- and aftershock seismicity is mostly related to the subduction interface with sparse seismicity in the overriding crust. The 2016 Chiloé event broke a region with increased locking and most likely broke an asperity of the 1960 earthquake. The updip limit of the main event, aftershocks, foreshocks and interseismic activity are spatially similar, located ˜15 km offshore and parallel to Chiloé Islands west coast. The coseismic slip model of the 2016 Chiloé earthquake suggests a peak slip of 4.2 m that locally exceeds the 3.38 m slip deficit that has accumulated since 1960. Therefore, the 2016 Chiloé earthquake possibly released strain that has built up prior to the 1960 Valdivia earthquake.

The August 2011 Virginia and Colorado Earthquake Sequences: Does Stress Drop Depend on Strain Rate?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abercrombie, R. E.; Viegas, G.

2011-12-01

Our preliminary analysis of the August 2011 Virginia earthquake sequence finds the earthquakes to have high stress drops, similar to those of recent earthquakes in NE USA, while those of the August 2011 Trinidad, Colorado, earthquakes are moderate - in between those typical of interplate (California) and the east coast. These earthquakes provide an unprecedented opportunity to study such source differences in detail, and hence improve our estimates of seismic hazard. Previously, the lack of well-recorded earthquakes in the eastern USA severely limited our resolution of the source processes and hence the expected ground accelerations. Our preliminary findings are consistent with the idea that earthquake faults strengthen during longer recurrence times and intraplate faults fail at higher stress (and produce higher ground accelerations) than their interplate counterparts. We use the empirical Green's function (EGF) method to calculate source parameters for the Virginia mainshock and three larger aftershocks, and for the Trinidad mainshock and two larger foreshocks using IRIS-available stations. We select time windows around the direct P and S waves at the closest stations and calculate spectral ratios and source time functions using the multi-taper spectral approach (eg. Viegas et al., JGR 2010). Our preliminary results show that the Virginia sequence has high stress drops (~100-200 MPa, using Madariaga (1976) model), and the Colorado sequence has moderate stress drops (~20 MPa). These numbers are consistent with previous work in the regions, for example the Au Sable Forks (2002) earthquake, and the 2010 Germantown (MD) earthquake. We also calculate the radiated seismic energy and find the energy/moment ratio to be high for the Virginia earthquakes, and moderate for the Colorado sequence. We observe no evidence of a breakdown in constant stress drop scaling in this limited number of earthquakes. We extend our analysis to a larger number of earthquakes and stations. We calculate uncertainties in all our measurements, and also consider carefully the effects of variation in available bandwidth in order to improve our constraints on the source parameters.

Automated Determination of Magnitude and Source Length of Large Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D.; Kawakatsu, H.; Zhuang, J.; Mori, J. J.; Maeda, T.; Tsuruoka, H.; Zhao, X.

2017-12-01

Rapid determination of earthquake magnitude is of importance for estimating shaking damages, and tsunami hazards. However, due to the complexity of source process, accurately estimating magnitude for great earthquakes in minutes after origin time is still a challenge. Mw is an accurate estimate for large earthquakes. However, calculating Mw requires the whole wave trains including P, S, and surface phases, which takes tens of minutes to reach stations at tele-seismic distances. To speed up the calculation, methods using W phase and body wave are developed for fast estimating earthquake sizes. Besides these methods that involve Green's Functions and inversions, there are other approaches that use empirically simulated relations to estimate earthquake magnitudes, usually for large earthquakes. The nature of simple implementation and straightforward calculation made these approaches widely applied at many institutions such as the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the USGS. Here we developed an approach that was originated from Hara [2007], estimating magnitude by considering P-wave displacement and source duration. We introduced a back-projection technique [Wang et al., 2016] instead to estimate source duration using array data from a high-sensitive seismograph network (Hi-net). The introduction of back-projection improves the method in two ways. Firstly, the source duration could be accurately determined by seismic array. Secondly, the results can be more rapidly calculated, and data derived from farther stations are not required. We purpose to develop an automated system for determining fast and reliable source information of large shallow seismic events based on real time data of a dense regional array and global data, for earthquakes that occur at distance of roughly 30°- 85° from the array center. This system can offer fast and robust estimates of magnitudes and rupture extensions of large earthquakes in 6 to 13 min (plus source duration time) depending on the epicenter distances. It may be a promising aid for disaster mitigation right after a damaging earthquake, especially when dealing with the tsunami evacuation and emergency rescue.

Automated Determination of Magnitude and Source Extent of Large Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dun

2017-04-01

Rapid determination of earthquake magnitude is of importance for estimating shaking damages, and tsunami hazards. However, due to the complexity of source process, accurately estimating magnitude for great earthquakes in minutes after origin time is still a challenge. Mw is an accurate estimate for large earthquakes. However, calculating Mw requires the whole wave trains including P, S, and surface phases, which takes tens of minutes to reach stations at tele-seismic distances. To speed up the calculation, methods using W phase and body wave are developed for fast estimating earthquake sizes. Besides these methods that involve Green's Functions and inversions, there are other approaches that use empirically simulated relations to estimate earthquake magnitudes, usually for large earthquakes. The nature of simple implementation and straightforward calculation made these approaches widely applied at many institutions such as the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the USGS. Here we developed an approach that was originated from Hara [2007], estimating magnitude by considering P-wave displacement and source duration. We introduced a back-projection technique [Wang et al., 2016] instead to estimate source duration using array data from a high-sensitive seismograph network (Hi-net). The introduction of back-projection improves the method in two ways. Firstly, the source duration could be accurately determined by seismic array. Secondly, the results can be more rapidly calculated, and data derived from farther stations are not required. We purpose to develop an automated system for determining fast and reliable source information of large shallow seismic events based on real time data of a dense regional array and global data, for earthquakes that occur at distance of roughly 30°- 85° from the array center. This system can offer fast and robust estimates of magnitudes and rupture extensions of large earthquakes in 6 to 13 min (plus source duration time) depending on the epicenter distances. It may be a promising aid for disaster mitigation right after a damaging earthquake, especially when dealing with the tsunami evacuation and emergency rescue.

Paleoseismicity and neotectonics of the Aleutian Subduction Zone—An overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carver, Gary; Plafker, George

The Aleutian subduction zone is one of the most seismically active plate boundaries and the source of several of the world's largest historic earthquakes. The structural architecture of the subduction zone varies considerably along its length. At the eastern end is a tectonically complex collision zone where the allochthonous Yakutat terrane is moving northwest into mainland Alaska. West of the collision zone a shallow-dipping subducted plate beneath a wide forearc, nearly orthogonal convergence, and a continental-type subduction regime characterizes the eastern part of the subduction zone. In the central part of the subduction zone, convergence becomes increasingly right oblique and the forearc is divided into a series of large clockwise-rotated fault-bounded blocks. Highly oblique convergence and island arc tectonics characterize the western part of the subduction zone. At the extreme western end of the arc, the relative plate motion is nearly pure strike-slip. A series of great subduction earthquakes ruptured most of the 4000-km length of the subduction zone during a period of several decades in the mid 1900s. The majority of these earthquakes broke multiple segments as defined by the large-scale structure of the overriding plate margin and patterns of historic seismicity. Several of these earthquakes generated Pacific-wide tsunamis and significant damage in the southwestern and south-central regions of Alaska. Characterization of previous subduction earthquakes is important in assessing future seismic and tsunami hazards. However, at present such information is available only for the eastern part of the subduction zone. The 1964 Alaska earthquake (M 9.2) ruptured about ˜950 km of the plate boundary that encompassed the Kodiak and Prince William Sound (PWS) segments. Within this region, nine paleosubduction earthquakes in the past ˜5000 years are recognized on the basis of geologic evidence of sudden land level change and, at some sites, coeval tsunami deposits. Carbon 14-based chronologies indicate recurrence intervals between median calibrated ages for these paleoearthquakes range from 333 to 875 years. The most recent occurred about 489 years ago and broke only the Kodiak segment. During the previous three cycles, both the Kodiak and PWS segments were involved in either multiple-segment ruptures or closely timed pairs of single segment ruptures. Evidence for the earlier paleosubduction earthquakes has been found only at sites in the PWS segment. Thus, future work on the paleoseismicity of other segments would by particular valuable in defining the seismic behavior of the subduction zone.

Earthquake Source Inversion Blindtest: Initial Results and Further Developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mai, P.; Burjanek, J.; Delouis, B.; Festa, G.; Francois-Holden, C.; Monelli, D.; Uchide, T.; Zahradnik, J.

2007-12-01

Images of earthquake ruptures, obtained from modelling/inverting seismic and/or geodetic data exhibit a high degree in spatial complexity. This earthquake source heterogeneity controls seismic radiation, and is determined by the details of the dynamic rupture process. In turn, such rupture models are used for studying source dynamics and for ground-motion prediction. But how reliable and trustworthy are these earthquake source inversions? Rupture models for a given earthquake, obtained by different research teams, often display striking disparities (see http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/srcmod) However, well resolved, robust, and hence reliable source-rupture models are an integral part to better understand earthquake source physics and to improve seismic hazard assessment. Therefore it is timely to conduct a large-scale validation exercise for comparing the methods, parameterization and data-handling in earthquake source inversions.We recently started a blind test in which several research groups derive a kinematic rupture model from synthetic seismograms calculated for an input model unknown to the source modelers. The first results, for an input rupture model with heterogeneous slip but constant rise time and rupture velocity, reveal large differences between the input and inverted model in some cases, while a few studies achieve high correlation between the input and inferred model. Here we report on the statistical assessment of the set of inverted rupture models to quantitatively investigate their degree of (dis-)similarity. We briefly discuss the different inversion approaches, their possible strength and weaknesses, and the use of appropriate misfit criteria. Finally we present new blind-test models, with increasing source complexity and ambient noise on the synthetics. The goal is to attract a large group of source modelers to join this source-inversion blindtest in order to conduct a large-scale validation exercise to rigorously asses the performance and reliability of current inversion methods and to discuss future developments.

Rapid tsunami models and earthquake source parameters: Far-field and local applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.

2005-01-01

Rapid tsunami models have recently been developed to forecast far-field tsunami amplitudes from initial earthquake information (magnitude and hypocenter). Earthquake source parameters that directly affect tsunami generation as used in rapid tsunami models are examined, with particular attention to local versus far-field application of those models. First, validity of the assumption that the focal mechanism and type of faulting for tsunamigenic earthquakes is similar in a given region can be evaluated by measuring the seismic consistency of past events. Second, the assumption that slip occurs uniformly over an area of rupture will most often underestimate the amplitude and leading-wave steepness of the local tsunami. Third, sometimes large magnitude earthquakes will exhibit a high degree of spatial heterogeneity such that tsunami sources will be composed of distinct sub-events that can cause constructive and destructive interference in the wavefield away from the source. Using a stochastic source model, it is demonstrated that local tsunami amplitudes vary by as much as a factor of two or more, depending on the local bathymetry. If other earthquake source parameters such as focal depth or shear modulus are varied in addition to the slip distribution patterns, even greater uncertainty in local tsunami amplitude is expected for earthquakes of similar magnitude. Because of the short amount of time available to issue local warnings and because of the high degree of uncertainty associated with local, model-based forecasts as suggested by this study, direct wave height observations and a strong public education and preparedness program are critical for those regions near suspected tsunami sources.

Recent updates in developing a statistical pseudo-dynamic source-modeling framework to capture the variability of earthquake rupture scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Seok Goo; Kwak, Sangmin; Lee, Kyungbook; Park, Donghee

2017-04-01

It is a critical element to predict the intensity and variability of strong ground motions in seismic hazard assessment. The characteristics and variability of earthquake rupture process may be a dominant factor in determining the intensity and variability of near-source strong ground motions. Song et al. (2014) demonstrated that the variability of earthquake rupture scenarios could be effectively quantified in the framework of 1-point and 2-point statistics of earthquake source parameters, constrained by rupture dynamics and past events. The developed pseudo-dynamic source modeling schemes were also validated against the recorded ground motion data of past events and empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) at the broadband platform (BBP) developed by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). Recently we improved the computational efficiency of the developed pseudo-dynamic source-modeling scheme by adopting the nonparametric co-regionalization algorithm, introduced and applied in geostatistics initially. We also investigated the effect of earthquake rupture process on near-source ground motion characteristics in the framework of 1-point and 2-point statistics, particularly focusing on the forward directivity region. Finally we will discuss whether the pseudo-dynamic source modeling can reproduce the variability (standard deviation) of empirical GMPEs and the efficiency of 1-point and 2-point statistics to address the variability of ground motions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, Paul A.

Nonlinear dynamics induced by seismic sources and seismic waves are common in Earth. Observations range from seismic strong ground motion (the most damaging aspect of earthquakes), intense near-source effects, and distant nonlinear effects from the source that have important consequences. The distant effects include dynamic earthquake triggering-one of the most fascinating topics in seismology today-which may be elastically nonlinearly driven. Dynamic earthquake triggering is the phenomenon whereby seismic waves generated from one earthquake trigger slip events on a nearby or distant fault. Dynamic triggering may take place at distances thousands of kilometers from the triggering earthquake, and includes triggering ofmore » the entire spectrum of slip behaviors currently identified. These include triggered earthquakes and triggered slow, silent-slip during which little seismic energy is radiated. It appears that the elasticity of the fault gouge-the granular material located between the fault blocks-is key to the triggering phenomenon.« less

The Mw 5.8 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake of August 2011 and aftershock sequence: constraints on earthquake source parameters and fault geometry

USGS Publications Warehouse

McNamara, Daniel E.; Benz, H.M.; Herrmann, Robert B.; Bergman, Eric A.; Earle, Paul; Meltzer, Anne; Withers, Mitch; Chapman, Martin

2014-01-01

The Mw 5.8 earthquake of 23 August 2011 (17:51:04 UTC) (moment, M0 5.7×1017  N·m) occurred near Mineral, Virginia, within the central Virginia seismic zone and was felt by more people than any other earthquake in United States history. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received 148,638 felt reports from 31 states and 4 Canadian provinces. The USGS PAGER system estimates as many as 120,000 people were exposed to shaking intensity levels of IV and greater, with approximately 10,000 exposed to shaking as high as intensity VIII. Both regional and teleseismic moment tensor solutions characterize the earthquake as a northeast‐striking reverse fault that nucleated at a depth of approximately 7±2  km. The distribution of reported macroseismic intensities is roughly ten times the area of a similarly sized earthquake in the western United States (Horton and Williams, 2012). Near‐source and far‐field damage reports, which extend as far away as Washington, D.C., (135 km away) and Baltimore, Maryland, (200 km away) are consistent with an earthquake of this size and depth in the eastern United States (EUS). Within the first few days following the earthquake, several government and academic institutions installed 36 portable seismograph stations in the epicentral region, making this among the best‐recorded aftershock sequences in the EUS. Based on modeling of these data, we provide a detailed description of the source parameters of the mainshock and analysis of the subsequent aftershock sequence for defining the fault geometry, area of rupture, and observations of the aftershock sequence magnitude–frequency and temporal distribution. The observed slope of the magnitude–frequency curve or b‐value for the aftershock sequence is consistent with previous EUS studies (b=0.75), suggesting that most of the accumulated strain was released by the mainshock. The aftershocks define a rupture that extends between approximately 2–8 km in depth and 8–10 km along the strike of the fault plane. Best‐fit modeling of the geometry of the aftershock sequence defines a rupture plane that strikes N36°E and dips to the east‐southeast at 49.5°. Moment tensor solutions of the mainshock and larger aftershocks are consistent with the distribution of aftershock locations, both indicating reverse slip along a northeast–southwest striking southeast‐dipping fault plane.

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment along Nankai Trough (1) An assessment based on the information of the forthcoming earthquake that Earthquake Research Committee(2013) evaluated

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, K.; Fujiwara, H.; Nakamura, H.; Osada, M.; Morikawa, N.; Kawai, S.; Ohsumi, T.; Aoi, S.; Yamamoto, N.; Matsuyama, H.; Toyama, N.; Kito, T.; Murashima, Y.; Murata, Y.; Inoue, T.; Saito, R.; Takayama, J.; Akiyama, S.; Korenaga, M.; Abe, Y.; Hashimoto, N.

2015-12-01

The Earthquake Research Committee(ERC)/HERP, Government of Japan (2013) revised their long-term evaluation of the forthcoming large earthquake along the Nankai Trough; the next earthquake is estimated M8 to 9 class, and the probability (P30) that the next earthquake will occur within the next 30 years (from Jan. 1, 2013) is 60% to 70%. In this study, we assess tsunami hazards (maximum coastal tsunami heights) in the near future, in terms of a probabilistic approach, from the next earthquake along Nankai Trough, on the basis of ERC(2013)'s report. The probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment that we applied is as follows; (1) Characterized earthquake fault models (CEFMs) are constructed on each of the 15 hypothetical source areas (HSA) that ERC(2013) showed. The characterization rule follows Toyama et al.(2015, JpGU). As results, we obtained total of 1441 CEFMs. (2) We calculate tsunamis due to CEFMs by solving nonlinear, finite-amplitude, long-wave equations with advection and bottom friction terms by finite-difference method. Run-up computation on land is included. (3) A time predictable model predicts the recurrent interval of the present seismic cycle is T=88.2 years (ERC,2013). We fix P30 = 67% by applying the renewal process based on BPT distribution with T and alpha=0.24 as its aperiodicity. (4) We divide the probability P30 into P30(i) for i-th subgroup consisting of the earthquakes occurring in each of 15 HSA by following a probability re-distribution concept (ERC,2014). Then each earthquake (CEFM) in i-th subgroup is assigned a probability P30(i)/N where N is the number of CEFMs in each sub-group. Note that such re-distribution concept of the probability is nothing but tentative because the present seismology cannot give deep knowledge enough to do it. Epistemic logic-tree approach may be required in future. (5) We synthesize a number of tsunami hazard curves at every evaluation points on coasts by integrating the information about 30 years occurrence probabilities P30(i) for all earthquakes (CEFMs) and calculated maximum coastal tsunami heights. In the synthesis, aleatory uncertainties relating to incompleteness of governing equations, CEFM modeling, bathymetry and topography data, etc, are modeled assuming a log-normal probabilistic distribution. Examples of tsunami hazard curves will be presented.

Discovering Coseismic Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances Generated by the 2016 Kaikoura Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J. D.; Rude, C. M.; Gowanlock, M.; Pankratius, V.

2017-12-01

Geophysical events and hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanoes, have been shown to generate traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs). These disturbances can be measured by means of Total Electron Content fluctuations obtained from a network of multifrequency GPS receivers in the MIT Haystack Observatory Madrigal database. Analyzing the response of the ionosphere to such hazards enhances our understanding of natural phenomena and augments our large-scale monitoring capabilities in conjunction with other ground-based sensors. However, it is currently challenging for human investigators to spot and characterize such signatures, or whether a geophysical event has actually occurred, because the ionosphere can be noisy with multiple simultaneous phenomena taking place at the same time. This work therefore explores a systematic pipeline for the ex-post discovery and characterization of TIDs. Our technique starts by geolocating the event and gathering the corresponding data, then checks for potentially conflicting TID sources, and processes the raw total electron content data to generate differential measurements. A Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is applied to evaluate the statistical significance of detected deviations in the differential measurements. We present results from our successful application of this pipeline to the 2016 7.8 Mw Kaikoura earthquake occurring in New Zealand on November 13th. We detect a coseismic TID occurring 8 minutes after the earthquake and propagating towards the equator at 1050 m/s, with a 0.22 peak-to-peak TECu amplitude. Furthermore, the observed waveform exhibits more complex behavior than the expected N-wave for a coseismic TID, which potentially results from the complex multi-fault structure of the earthquake. We acknowledge support from NSF ACI1442997 (PI Pankratius), NASA AISTNNX15AG84G (PI Pankratius), and NSF AGS-1343967 (PI Pankratius), and NSF AGS-1242204 (PI Erickson).

Detailed source process of the 2007 Tocopilla earthquake.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peyrat, S.; Madariaga, R.; Campos, J.; Asch, G.; Favreau, P.; Bernard, P.; Vilotte, J.

2008-05-01

We investigated the detail rupture process of the Tocopilla earthquake (Mw 7.7) of the 14 November 2007 and of the main aftershocks that occurred in the southern part of the North Chile seismic gap using strong motion data. The earthquake happen in the middle of the permanent broad band and strong motion network IPOC newly installed by GFZ and IPGP, and of a digital strong-motion network operated by the University of Chile. The Tocopilla earthquake is the last large thrust subduction earthquake that occurred since the major Iquique 1877 earthquake which produced a destructive tsunami. The Arequipa (2001) and Antofagasta (1995) earthquakes already ruptured the northern and southern parts of the gap, and the intraplate intermediate depth Tarapaca earthquake (2005) may have changed the tectonic loading of this part of the Peru-Chile subduction zone. For large earthquakes, the depth of the seismic rupture is bounded by the depth of the seismogenic zone. What controls the horizontal extent of the rupture for large earthquakes is less clear. Factors that influence the extent of the rupture include fault geometry, variations of material properties and stress heterogeneities inherited from the previous ruptures history. For subduction zones where structures are not well known, what may have stopped the rupture is not obvious. One crucial problem raised by the Tocopilla earthquake is to understand why this earthquake didn't extent further north, and at south, what is the role of the Mejillones peninsula that seems to act as a barrier. The focal mechanism was determined using teleseismic waveforms inversion and with a geodetic analysis (cf. Campos et al.; Bejarpi et al., in the same session). We studied the detailed source process using the strong motion data available. This earthquake ruptured the interplate seismic zone over more than 150 km and generated several large aftershocks, mainly located south of the rupture area. The strong-motion data show clearly two S-waves arrivals, allowing the localization of the 2 sources. The main shock started north of the segment close to Tocopilla. The rupture propagated southward. The second source was identified to start about 20 seconds later and was located 50 km south from the hypocenter. The network configuration provides a good resolution for the inverted slip distribution in the north-south direction, but a lower resolution for the east-west extent of the slip. However, this study of the source process of this earthquake shows a complex source with at least two slip asperities of different dynamical behavior.

Microearthquake sequences along the Irpinia normal fault system in Southern Apennines, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orefice, Antonella; Festa, Gaetano; Alfredo Stabile, Tony; Vassallo, Maurizio; Zollo, Aldo

2013-04-01

Microearthquakes reflect a continuous readjustment of tectonic structures, such as faults, under the action of local and regional stress fields. Low magnitude seismicity in the vicinity of active fault zones may reveal insights into the mechanics of the fault systems during the inter-seismic period and shine a light on the role of fluids and other physical parameters in promoting or disfavoring the nucleation of larger size events in the same area. Here we analyzed several earthquake sequences concentrated in very limited regions along the 1980 Irpinia earthquake fault zone (Southern Italy), a complex system characterized by normal stress regime, monitored by the dense, multi-component, high dynamic range seismic network ISNet (Irpinia Seismic Network). On a specific single sequence, the May 2008 Laviano swarm, we performed accurate absolute and relative locations and estimated source parameters and scaling laws that were compared with standard stress-drops computed for the area. Additionally, from EGF deconvolution, we computed a slip model for the mainshock and investigated the space-time evolution of the events in the sequence to reveal possible interactions among earthquakes. Through the massive analysis of cross-correlation based on the master event scanning of the continuous recording, we also reconstructed the catalog of repeated earthquakes and recognized several co-located sequences. For these events, we analyzed the statistical properties, location and source parameters and their space-time evolution with the aim of inferring the processes that control the occurrence and the size of microearthquakes in a swarm.

Stress Wave Source Characterization: Impact, Fracture, and Sliding Friction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLaskey, Gregory Christofer

Rapidly varying forces, such as those associated with impact, rapid crack propagation, and fault rupture, are sources of stress waves which propagate through a solid body. This dissertation investigates how properties of a stress wave source can be identified or constrained using measurements recorded at an array of sensor sites located far from the source. This methodology is often called the method of acoustic emission and is useful for structural health monitoring and the noninvasive study of material behavior such as friction and fracture. In this dissertation, laboratory measurements of 1--300 mm wavelength stress waves are obtained by means of piezoelectric sensors which detect high frequency (10 kHz--3MHz) motions of a specimen's surface, picometers to nanometers in amplitude. Then, stress wave source characterization techniques are used to study ball impact, drying shrinkage cracking in concrete, and the micromechanics of stick-slip friction of Poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) and rock/rock interfaces. In order to quantitatively relate recorded signals obtained with an array of sensors to a particular stress wave source, wave propagation effects and sensor distortions must be accounted for. This is achieved by modeling the physics of wave propagation and transduction as linear transfer functions. Wave propagation effects are precisely modeled by an elastodynamic Green's function, sensor distortion is characterized by an instrument response function, and the stress wave source is represented with a force moment tensor. These transfer function models are verified though calibration experiments which employ two different mechanical calibration sources: ball impact and glass capillary fracture. The suitability of the ball impact source model, based on Hertzian contact theory, is experimentally validated for small (˜1 mm) balls impacting massive plates composed of four different materials: aluminum, steel, glass, and PMMA. Using this transfer function approach and the two mechanical calibration sources, four types of piezoelectric sensors were calibrated: three commercially available sensors and the Glaser-type conical piezoelectric sensor, which was developed in the Glaser laboratory. The distorting effects of each sensor are modeled using autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) models, and because vital phase information is robustly incorporated into these models, they are useful for simulating or removing sensor-induced distortions, so that a displacement time history can be retrieved from recorded signals. The Glaser-type sensor was found to be very well modeled as a unidirectional displacement sensor which detects stress wave disturbances down to about 1 picometer in amplitude. Finally, the merits of a fully calibrated experimental system are demonstrated in a study of stress wave sources arising from sliding friction, and the relationship between those sources and earthquakes. A laboratory friction apparatus was built for this work which allows the micro-mechanisms of friction to be studied with stress wave analysis. Using an array of 14 Glaser-type sensors, and precise models of wave propagation effects and the sensor distortions, the physical origins of the stress wave sources are explored. Force-time functions and focal mechanisms are determined for discrete events found amid the "noise" of friction. These localized events are interpreted to be the rupture of micrometer-sized contacts, known as asperities. By comparing stress wave sources from stick-slip experiments on plastic/plastic and rock/rock interfaces, systematic differences were found. The rock interface produces very rapid (<1 microsecond) implosive forces indicative of brittle asperity failure and fault gouge formation, while rupture on the plastic interface releases only shear force and produces a source more similar to earthquakes commonly recorded in the field. The difference between the mechanisms is attributed to the vast differences in the hardness and melting temperatures of the two materials, which affect the distribution of asperities as well as their failure behavior. With proper scaling, the strong link between material properties and laboratory earthquakes will aid in our understanding of fault mechanics and the generation of earthquakes and seismic tremor.

Point spread functions for earthquake source imaging: An interpretation based on seismic interferometry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nakahara, Hisashi; Haney, Matt

2015-01-01

Recently, various methods have been proposed and applied for earthquake source imaging, and theoretical relationships among the methods have been studied. In this study, we make a follow-up theoretical study to better understand the meanings of earthquake source imaging. For imaging problems, the point spread function (PSF) is used to describe the degree of blurring and degradation in an obtained image of a target object as a response of an imaging system. In this study, we formulate PSFs for earthquake source imaging. By calculating the PSFs, we find that waveform source inversion methods remove the effect of the PSF and are free from artifacts. However, the other source imaging methods are affected by the PSF and suffer from the effect of blurring and degradation due to the restricted distribution of receivers. Consequently, careful treatment of the effect is necessary when using the source imaging methods other than waveform inversions. Moreover, the PSF for source imaging is found to have a link with seismic interferometry with the help of the source-receiver reciprocity of Green’s functions. In particular, the PSF can be related to Green’s function for cases in which receivers are distributed so as to completely surround the sources. Furthermore, the PSF acts as a low-pass filter. Given these considerations, the PSF is quite useful for understanding the physical meaning of earthquake source imaging.

Amending and complicating Chile’s seismic catalog with the Santiago earthquake of 7 August 1580

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cisternas, Marco; Torrejón, Fernando; Gorigoitia, Nicolás

2012-02-01

Historical earthquakes of Chile's metropolitan region include a previously uncatalogued earthquake that occurred on 7 August 1580 in the Julian calendar. We found an authoritative account of this earthquake in a letter written four days later in Santiago and now archived in Spain. The letter tells of a destructive earthquake that struck Santiago and its environs. In its reported effects it surpassed the one in the same city in 1575, until now presumed to be the only earthquake in the first century of central Chile's written history. It is not yet possible to identify the source of the 1580 earthquake but viable candidates include both the plate boundary and Andean faults at shallows depths around Santiago. By occurring just five years after another large earthquake, the 1580 earthquake casts doubt on the completeness of the region's historical earthquake catalog and the periodicity of its large earthquakes. That catalog, based on eyewitness accounts compiled mainly by Alexander Perrey and Fernand Montessus de Ballore, tells of large Chile's metropolitan region earthquakes in 1575, 1647, 1730, 1822, 1906 and 1985. The addition of a large earthquake in 1580 implies greater variability in recurrence intervals and may also mean greater variety in earthquake sources.

Triggered Seismicity in Utah from the November 3, 2002, Denali Fault Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pankow, K. L.; Nava, S. J.; Pechmann, J. C.; Arabasz, W. J.

2002-12-01

Coincident with the arrival of the surface waves from the November 3, 2002, Mw 7.9 Denali Fault, Alaska earthquake (DFE), the University of Utah Seismograph Stations (UUSS) regional seismic network detected a marked increase in seismicity along the Intermountain Seismic Belt (ISB) in central and north-central Utah. The number of earthquakes per day in Utah located automatically by the UUSS's Earthworm system in the week following the DFE was approximately double the long-term average during the preceding nine months. From these preliminary data, the increased seismicity appears to be characterized by small magnitude events (M = 3.2) and concentrated in five distinct spatial clusters within the ISB between 38.75°and 42.0° N. The first of these earthquakes was an M 2.2 event located ~20 km east of Salt Lake City, Utah, which occurred during the arrival of the Love waves from the DFE. The increase in Utah earthquake activity at the time of the arrival of the surface waves from the DFE suggests that these surface waves triggered earthquakes in Utah at distances of more than 3,000 km from the source. We estimated the peak dynamic shear stress caused by these surface waves from measurements of their peak vector velocities at 43 recording sites: 37 strong-motion stations of the Advanced National Seismic System and six broadband stations. (The records from six other broadband instruments in the region of interest were clipped.) The estimated peak stresses ranged from 1.2 bars to 3.5 bars with a mean of 2.3 bars, and generally occurred during the arrival of Love waves of ~15 sec period. These peak dynamic shear stress estimates are comparable to those obtained from recordings of the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers, California, earthquake in regions where the Landers earthquake triggered increased seismicity. We plan to present more complete analyses of UUSS seismic network data, further testing our hypothesis that the DFE remotely triggered seismicity in Utah. This hypothesis is important to investigate because well-documented evidence for triggering of seismicity by distant earthquakes comes primarily from areas characterized by recent volcanic or geothermal activity. The regions of apparent triggered seismicity from the DFE in Utah fall into neither of these two categories.

Dynamic rupture scenarios from Sumatra to Iceland - High-resolution earthquake source physics on natural fault systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabriel, Alice-Agnes; Madden, Elizabeth H.; Ulrich, Thomas; Wollherr, Stephanie

2017-04-01

Capturing the observed complexity of earthquake sources in dynamic rupture simulations may require: non-linear fault friction, thermal and fluid effects, heterogeneous fault stress and fault strength initial conditions, fault curvature and roughness, on- and off-fault non-elastic failure. All of these factors have been independently shown to alter dynamic rupture behavior and thus possibly influence the degree of realism attainable via simulated ground motions. In this presentation we will show examples of high-resolution earthquake scenarios, e.g. based on the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake, the 1994 Northridge earthquake and a potential rupture of the Husavik-Flatey fault system in Northern Iceland. The simulations combine a multitude of representations of source complexity at the necessary spatio-temporal resolution enabled by excellent scalability on modern HPC systems. Such simulations allow an analysis of the dominant factors impacting earthquake source physics and ground motions given distinct tectonic settings or distinct focuses of seismic hazard assessment. Across all simulations, we find that fault geometry concurrently with the regional background stress state provide a first order influence on source dynamics and the emanated seismic wave field. The dynamic rupture models are performed with SeisSol, a software package based on an ADER-Discontinuous Galerkin scheme for solving the spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture problem with high-order accuracy in space and time. Use of unstructured tetrahedral meshes allows for a realistic representation of the non-planar fault geometry, subsurface structure and bathymetry. The results presented highlight the fact that modern numerical methods are essential to further our understanding of earthquake source physics and complement both physic-based ground motion research and empirical approaches in seismic hazard analysis.

Simulation of the Tsunami Resulting from the M 9.2 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake - Dynamic Rupture vs. Seismic Inversion Source Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vater, Stefan; Behrens, Jörn

2017-04-01

Simulations of historic tsunami events such as the 2004 Sumatra or the 2011 Tohoku event are usually initialized using earthquake sources resulting from inversion of seismic data. Also, other data from ocean buoys etc. is sometimes included in the derivation of the source model. The associated tsunami event can often be well simulated in this way, and the results show high correlation with measured data. However, it is unclear how the derived source model compares to the particular earthquake event. In this study we use the results from dynamic rupture simulations obtained with SeisSol, a software package based on an ADER-DG discretization solving the spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture problem with high-order accuracy in space and time. The tsunami model is based on a second-order Runge-Kutta discontinuous Galerkin (RKDG) scheme on triangular grids and features a robust wetting and drying scheme for the simulation of inundation events at the coast. Adaptive mesh refinement enables the efficient computation of large domains, while at the same time it allows for high local resolution and geometric accuracy. The results are compared to measured data and results using earthquake sources based on inversion. With the approach of using the output of actual dynamic rupture simulations, we can estimate the influence of different earthquake parameters. Furthermore, the comparison to other source models enables a thorough comparison and validation of important tsunami parameters, such as the runup at the coast. This work is part of the ASCETE (Advanced Simulation of Coupled Earthquake and Tsunami Events) project, which aims at an improved understanding of the coupling between the earthquake and the generated tsunami event.

Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in The Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey Part2 Yoshiyuki KANEDA Nagoya University Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) Haluk OZENER Boğaziçi University, Earthquake Researches Institute (KOERI) and Members of SATREPS Japan-Turkey project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaneda, Y.; Ozener, H.

2015-12-01

The 1999 Izumit Earthquake as the destructive earthquake occurred near the Marmara Sea. The Marmara Sea should be focused on because of a seismic gap in the North Anatolian fault. Istanbul is located around the Marmara Sea, so, if next earthquake will occur near Istanbul, fatal damages will be generated. The Japan and Turkey can share our own experiences during past damaging earthquakes and we can prepare for future large earthquakes in cooperation with each other. In earthquakes in Tokyo area and Istanbul area as the destructive earthquakes near high population cities, there are common disaster researches and measures. For disaster mitigation, we are progressing multidisciplinary researches. Our goals of this SATREPS project are as follows, To develop disaster mitigation policy and strategies based on multidisciplinary research activities. To provide decision makers with newly found knowledge for its implementation to the current regulations. To organize disaster education programs in order to increase disaster awareness in Turkey. To contribute the evaluation of active fault studies in Japan. This project is composed of four research groups. The first group is Marmara Earthquake Source region observationally research group. This group has 4 sub-themes such as Seismicity, Geodesy, Electromagnetics and Trench analyses. The second group focuses on scenario researches of earthquake occurrence along the North Anatolia fault and precise tsunami simulation in the Marmara region. Aims of the third group are improvements and constructions of seismic characterizations and damage predictions based on observation researches and precise simulations. The fourth group is promoting disaster educations using research result visuals. In this SATREPS project, we will integrate these research results for disaster mitigation in Marmara region and .disaster education in Turkey. We will have a presentation of the updated results of this SATREPS project.

Chapter two: Phenomenology of tsunamis II: scaling, event statistics, and inter-event triggering

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.

2012-01-01

Observations related to tsunami catalogs are reviewed and described in a phenomenological framework. An examination of scaling relationships between earthquake size (as expressed by scalar seismic moment and mean slip) and tsunami size (as expressed by mean and maximum local run-up and maximum far-field amplitude) indicates that scaling is significant at the 95% confidence level, although there is uncertainty in how well earthquake size can predict tsunami size (R2 ~ 0.4-0.6). In examining tsunami event statistics, current methods used to estimate the size distribution of earthquakes and landslides and the inter-event time distribution of earthquakes are first reviewed. These methods are adapted to estimate the size and inter-event distribution of tsunamis at a particular recording station. Using a modified Pareto size distribution, the best-fit power-law exponents of tsunamis recorded at nine Pacific tide-gauge stations exhibit marked variation, in contrast to the approximately constant power-law exponent for inter-plate thrust earthquakes. With regard to the inter-event time distribution, significant temporal clustering of tsunami sources is demonstrated. For tsunami sources occurring in close proximity to other sources in both space and time, a physical triggering mechanism, such as static stress transfer, is a likely cause for the anomalous clustering. Mechanisms of earthquake-to-earthquake and earthquake-to-landslide triggering are reviewed. Finally, a modification of statistical branching models developed for earthquake triggering is introduced to describe triggering among tsunami sources.

Stress Drop and Depth Controls on Ground Motion From Induced Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baltay, A.; Rubinstein, J. L.; Terra, F. M.; Hanks, T. C.; Herrmann, R. B.

2015-12-01

Induced earthquakes in the central United States pose a risk to local populations, but there is not yet agreement on how to portray their hazard. A large source of uncertainty in the hazard arises from ground motion prediction, which depends on the magnitude and distance of the causative earthquake. However, ground motion models for induced earthquakes may be very different than models previously developed for either the eastern or western United States. A key question is whether ground motions from induced earthquakes are similar to those from natural earthquakes, yet there is little history of natural events in the same region with which to compare the induced ground motions. To address these problems, we explore how earthquake source properties, such as stress drop or depth, affect the recorded ground motion of induced earthquakes. Typically, due to stress drop increasing with depth, ground motion prediction equations model shallower events to have smaller ground motions, when considering the same absolute hypocentral distance to the station. Induced earthquakes tend to occur at shallower depths, with respect to natural eastern US earthquakes, and may also exhibit lower stress drops, which begs the question of how these two parameters interact to control ground motion. Can the ground motions of induced earthquakes simply be understood by scaling our known source-ground motion relations to account for the shallow depth or potentially smaller stress drops of these induced earthquakes, or is there an inherently different mechanism in play for these induced earthquakes? We study peak ground-motion velocity (PGV) and acceleration (PGA) from induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas, recorded by USGS networks at source-station distances of less than 20 km, in order to model the source effects. We compare these records to those in both the NGA-West2 database (primarily from California) as well as NGA-East, which covers the central and eastern United States and Canada. Preliminary analysis indicates that the induced ground motions appear similar to those from the NGA-West2 database. However, upon consideration of their shallower depths, ground motion behavior from induced events seems to fall in between the West data and that of NGA-East, so we explore the control of stress drop and depth on ground motion in more detail.

SOURCE PULSE ENHANCEMENT BY DECONVOLUTION OF AN EMPIRICAL GREEN'S FUNCTION.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, Charles S.

1985-01-01

Observations of the earthquake source-time function are enhanced if path, recording-site, and instrument complexities can be removed from seismograms. Assuming that a small earthquake has a simple source, its seismogram can be treated as an empirical Green's function and deconvolved from the seismogram of a larger and/or more complex earthquake by spectral division. When the deconvolution is well posed, the quotient spectrum represents the apparent source-time function of the larger event. This study shows that with high-quality locally recorded earthquake data it is feasible to Fourier transform the quotient and obtain a useful result in the time domain. In practice, the deconvolution can be stabilized by one of several simple techniques. Application of the method is given. Refs.

High-Resolution Source Parameter and Site Characteristics Using Near-Field Recordings - Decoding the Trade-off Problems Between Site and Source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Abercrombie, R. E.; Pennington, C.

2017-12-01

Recorded seismic waveforms include contributions from earthquake source properties and propagation effects, leading to long-standing trade-off problems between site/path effects and source effects. With near-field recordings, the path effect is relatively small, so the trade-off problem can be simplified to between source and site effects (commonly referred as "kappa value"). This problem is especially significant for small earthquakes where the corner frequencies are within similar ranges of kappa values, so direct spectrum fitting often leads to systematic biases due to corner frequency and magnitude. In response to the significantly increased seismicity rate in Oklahoma, several local networks have been deployed following major earthquakes: the Prague, Pawnee and Fairview earthquakes. Each network provides dense observations within 20 km surrounding the fault zone, recording tens of thousands of aftershocks between M1 to M3. Using near-field recordings in the Prague area, we apply a stacking approach to separate path/site and source effects. The resulting source parameters are consistent with parameters derived from ground motion and spectral ratio methods from other studies; they exhibit spatial coherence within the fault zone for different fault patches. We apply these source parameter constraints in an analysis of kappa values for stations within 20 km of the fault zone. The resulting kappa values show significantly reduced variability compared to those from direct spectral fitting without constraints on the source spectrum; they are not biased by earthquake magnitudes. With these improvements, we plan to apply the stacking analysis to other local arrays to analyze source properties and site characteristics. For selected individual earthquakes, we will also use individual-pair empirical Green's function (EGF) analysis to validate the source parameter estimations.

Earthquake and submarine landslide tsunamis: how can we tell the difference? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tappin, D. R.; Grilli, S. T.; Harris, J.; Geller, R. J.; Masterlark, T.; Kirby, J. T.; Ma, G.; Shi, F.

2013-12-01

Several major recent events have shown the tsunami hazard from submarine mass failures (SMF), i.e., submarine landslides. In 1992 a small earthquake triggered landslide generated a tsunami over 25 meters high on Flores Island. In 1998 another small, earthquake-triggered, sediment slump-generated tsunami up to 15 meters high devastated the local coast of Papua New Guinea killing 2,200 people. It was this event that led to the recognition of the importance of marine geophysical data in mapping the architecture of seabed sediment failures that could be then used in modeling and validating the tsunami generating mechanism. Seabed mapping of the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake rupture zone demonstrated, however, that large, if not great, earthquakes do not necessarily cause major seabed failures, but that along some convergent margins frequent earthquakes result in smaller sediment failures that are not tsunamigenic. Older events, such as Messina, 1908, Makran, 1945, Alaska, 1946, and Java, 2006, all have the characteristics of SMF tsunamis, but for these a SMF source has not been proven. When the 2011 tsunami struck Japan, it was generally assumed that it was directly generated by the earthquake. The earthquake has some unusual characteristics, such as a shallow rupture that is somewhat slow, but is not a 'tsunami earthquake.' A number of simulations of the tsunami based on an earthquake source have been published, but in general the best results are obtained by adjusting fault rupture models with tsunami wave gauge or other data so, to the extent that they can model the recorded tsunami data, this demonstrates self-consistency rather than validation. Here we consider some of the existing source models of the 2011 Japan event and present new tsunami simulations based on a combination of an earthquake source and an SMF mapped from offshore data. We show that the multi-source tsunami agrees well with available tide gauge data and field observations and the wave data from offshore buoys, and that the SMF generated the large runups in the Sanriku region (northern Tohoku). Our new results for the 2011 Tohoku event suggest that care is required in using tsunami wave and tide gauge data to both model and validate earthquake tsunami sources. They also suggest a potential pitfall in the use of tsunami waveform inversion from tide gauges and buoys to estimate the size and spatial characteristics of earthquake rupture. If the tsunami source has a significant SMF component such studies may overestimate earthquake magnitude. Our seabed mapping identifies other large SMFs off Sanriku that have the potential to generate significant tsunamis and which should be considered in future analyses of the tsunami hazard in Japan. The identification of two major SMF-generated tsunamis (PNG and Tohoku), especially one associated with a M9 earthquake, is important in guiding future efforts at forecasting and mitigating the tsunami hazard from large megathrust plus SMF events both in Japan and globally.

Source of 1629 Banda Mega-Thrust Earthquake and Tsunami: Implications for Tsunami Hazard Evaluation in Eastern Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Major, J. R.; Liu, Z.; Harris, R. A.; Fisher, T. L.

2011-12-01

Using Dutch records of geophysical events in Indonesia over the past 400 years, and tsunami modeling, we identify tsunami sources that have caused severe devastation in the past and are likely to reoccur in the near future. The earthquake history of Western Indonesia has received much attention since the 2004 Sumatra earthquakes and subsequent events. However, strain rates along a variety of plate boundary segments are just as high in eastern Indonesia where the earthquake history has not been investigated. Due to the rapid population growth in this region it is essential and urgent to evaluate its earthquake and tsunami hazards. Arthur Wichmann's 'Earthquakes of the Indian Archipelago' shows that there were 30 significant earthquakes and 29 tsunami between 1629 to 1877. One of the largest and best documented is the great earthquake and tsunami effecting the Banda islands on 1 August, 1629. It caused severe damage from a 15 m tsunami that arrived at the Banda Islands about a half hour after the earthquake. The earthquake was also recorded 230 km away in Ambon, but no tsunami is mentioned. This event was followed by at least 9 years of aftershocks. The combination of these observations indicates that the earthquake was most likely a mega-thrust event. We use a numerical simulation of the tsunami to locate the potential sources of the 1629 mega-thrust event and evaluate the tsunami hazard in Eastern Indonesia. The numerical simulation was tested to establish the tsunami run-up amplification factor for this region by tsunami simulations of the 1992 Flores Island (Hidayat et al., 1995) and 2006 Java (Katoet al., 2007) earthquake events. The results yield a tsunami run-up amplification factor of 1.5 and 3, respectively. However, the Java earthquake is a unique case of slow rupture that was hardly felt. The fault parameters of recent earthquakes in the Banda region are used for the models. The modeling narrows the possibilities of mega-thrust events the size of the one in 1629 to the Seram and Timor Troughs. For the Seram Trough source a Mw 8.8 produces run-up heights in the Banda Islands of 15.5 m with an arrival time of 17 minuets. For a Timor Trough earthquake near the Tanimbar Islands a Mw 9.2 is needed to produce a 15 m run-up height with an arrival time of 25 minuets. The main problem with the Timor Trough source is that it predicts run-up heights in Ambon of 10 m, which would likely have been recorded. Therefore, we conclude that the most likely source of the 1629 mega-thrust earthquake is the Seram Trough. No large earthquakes are reported along the Seram Trough for over 200 years although high rates of strain are measured across it. This study suggests that the earthquake triggers from this fault zone could be extremely devastating to Eastern Indonesia. We strive to raise the awareness to the local government to not underestimate the natural hazard of this region based on lessons learned from the 2004 Sumatra and 2011 Tohoku tsunamigenic mega-thrust earthquakes.

Seismic Hazard and risk assessment for Romania -Bulgaria cross-border region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Alexandrova, Irena; Vaseva, Elena; Trifonova, Petya; Raykova, Plamena

2016-04-01

Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic hazard and vulnerability to earthquakes are steadily increasing as urbanization and development occupy more areas that are prone to effects of strong earthquakes. The assessment of the seismic hazard and risk is particularly important, because it provides valuable information for seismic safety and disaster mitigation, and it supports decision making for the benefit of society. Romania and Bulgaria, situated in the Balkan Region as a part of the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt, are characterized by high seismicity, and are exposed to a high seismic risk. Over the centuries, both countries have experienced strong earthquakes. The cross-border region encompassing the northern Bulgaria and southern Romania is a territory prone to effects of strong earthquakes. The area is significantly affected by earthquakes occurred in both countries, on the one hand the events generated by the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source in Romania, and on the other hand by the crustal seismicity originated in the seismic sources: Shabla (SHB), Dulovo, Gorna Orjahovitza (GO) in Bulgaria. The Vrancea seismogenic zone of Romania is a very peculiar seismic source, often described as unique in the world, and it represents a major concern for most of the northern part of Bulgaria as well. In the present study the seismic hazard for Romania-Bulgaria cross-border region on the basis of integrated basic geo-datasets is assessed. The hazard results are obtained by applying two alternative approaches - probabilistic and deterministic. The MSK64 intensity (MSK64 scale is practically equal to the new EMS98) is used as output parameter for the hazard maps. We prefer to use here the macroseismic intensity instead of PGA, because it is directly related to the degree of damages and, moreover, the epicentral intensity is the original parameter in the historical earthquake catalogues. A particular advantage of using intensities is that the very irregular pattern of the attenuation field of the Vrancea intermediate depth earthquakes can be estimated from detailed macroseismic observations that are available (in both countries) for the study region. Additionally, de-aggregation of the seismic hazard for a recurrence period of 475 years (probability of exceedance of 10% in 50 years) for intensity was performed for 9 cities (administrative centers) situated in northern Bulgaria. Finally, applying SELENA software earthquake risk for Bulgarian part of the cross-boarder region is analyzed. The results presented for the Romania-Bulgaria cross border region are part of the work carried out in the DACEA Project (2010-2013) that was implemented in the framework of the Romania - Bulgaria Cross Border Cooperation Programme (2007-2013).

STSHV a teleinformatic system for historic seismology in Venezuela

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choy, J. E.; Palme, C.; Altez, R.; Aranguren, R.; Guada, C.; Silva, J.

2013-05-01

From 1997 on, when the first "Jornadas Venezolanas de Sismicidad Historica" took place, a big interest awoke in Venezuela to organize the available information related to historic earthquakes. At that moment only existed one published historic earthquake catalogue, that from Centeno Grau published the first time in 1949. That catalogue had no references about the sources of information. Other catalogues existed but they were internal reports for the petroleum companies and therefore difficult to access. In 2000 Grases et al reedited the Centeno-Grau catalogue, it ended up in a new, very complete catalogue with all the sources well referenced and updated. The next step to organize historic seismicity data was, from 2004 to 2008, the creation of the STSHV (Sistema de teleinformacion de Sismologia Historica Venezolana, http://sismicidad.hacer.ula.ve ). The idea was to bring together all information about destructive historic earthquakes in Venezuela in one place in the internet so it could be accessed easily by a widespread public. There are two ways to access the system. The first one, selecting an earthquake or a list of earthquakes, and the second one, selecting an information source or a list of sources. For each earthquake there is a summary of general information and additional materials: a list with the source parameters published by different authors, a list with intensities assessed by different authors, a list of information sources, a short text summarizing the historic situation at the time of the earthquake and a list of pictures if available. There are searching facilities for the seismic events and dynamic maps can be created. The information sources are classified in: books, handwritten documents, transcription of handwritten documents, documents published in books, journals and congress memories, newspapers, seismologic catalogues and electronic sources. There are facilities to find specific documents or lists of documents with common characteristics. For each document general information is displayed together with an extract of the information relating to the earthquake. If the complete document was available and no problem with the publishers rights a pdf copy of the document was included. We found this system extremely useful for studying historic earthquakes, as one can access immediately previous research works about an earthquake and it allows to check easily the historic information and so to validate the intensity data. So far, the intensity data have not been completed for earthquakes after 2000. This information would be important for improving calibration of intensity - magnitude calibrations of historic events, and is a work in progress. On the other hand, it is important to mention that "El Catálogo Sismológico Venezolano del siglo XX" (The Seismological Venezuelan Catalog), published in 2012, updates seismic information up to 2007, and that the STSHV was one of its primary sources of information.

Tsunami Source Estimate for the 1960 Chilean Earthquake from Near- and Far-Field Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, T.; Satake, K.; Watada, S.; Fujii, Y.

2017-12-01

The tsunami source of the 1960 Chilean earthquake was estimated from the near- and far-field tsunami data. The 1960 Chilean earthquake is known as the greatest earthquake instrumentally ever recorded. This earthquake caused a large tsunami which was recorded by 13 near-field tidal gauges in South America, and 84 far-field stations around the Pacific Ocean at the coasts of North America, Asia, and Oceania. The near-field stations had been used for estimating the tsunami source [Fujii and Satake, Pageoph, 2013]. However, far-field tsunami waveforms have not been utilized because of the discrepancy between observed and simulated waveforms. The observed waveforms at the far-field stations are found systematically arrived later than the simulated waveforms. This phenomenon has been also observed in the tsunami of the 2004 Sumatra earthquake, the 2010 Chilean earthquake, and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Recently, the factors for the travel time delay have been explained [Watada et al., JGR, 2014; Allgeyer and Cummins, GRL, 2014], so the far-field data are usable for tsunami source estimation. The phase correction method [Watada et al., JGR, 2014] converts the tsunami waveforms computed by the linear long wave into the dispersive waveform which accounts for the effects of elasticity of the Earth and ocean, ocean density stratification, and gravitational potential change associated with tsunami propagation. We apply the method to correct the computed waveforms. For the preliminary initial sea surface height inversion, we use 12 near-field stations and 63 far-field stations, located in the South and North America, islands in the Pacific Ocean, and the Oceania. The estimated tsunami source from near-field stations is compared with the result from both near- and far-field stations. Two estimated sources show a similar pattern: a large sea surface displacement concentrated at the south of the epicenter close to the coast and extended to south. However, the source estimated from near-field stations shows larger displacement than one from both dataset.

Rupture processes of the 2010 Canterbury earthquake and the 2011 Christchurch earthquake inferred from InSAR, strong motion and teleseismic datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yun, S.; Koketsu, K.; Aoki, Y.

2014-12-01

The September 4, 2010, Canterbury earthquake with a moment magnitude (Mw) of 7.1 is a crustal earthquake in the South Island, New Zealand. The February 22, 2011, Christchurch earthquake (Mw=6.3) is the biggest aftershock of the 2010 Canterbury earthquake that is located at about 50 km to the east of the mainshock. Both earthquakes occurred on previously unrecognized faults. Field observations indicate that the rupture of the 2010 Canterbury earthquake reached the surface; the surface rupture with a length of about 30 km is located about 4 km south of the epicenter. Also various data including the aftershock distribution and strong motion seismograms suggest a very complex rupture process. For these reasons it is useful to investigate the complex rupture process using multiple data with various sensitivities to the rupture process. While previously published source models are based on one or two datasets, here we infer the rupture process with three datasets, InSAR, strong-motion, and teleseismic data. We first performed point source inversions to derive the focal mechanism of the 2010 Canterbury earthquake. Based on the focal mechanism, the aftershock distribution, the surface fault traces and the SAR interferograms, we assigned several source faults. We then performed the joint inversion to determine the rupture process of the 2010 Canterbury earthquake most suitable for reproducing all the datasets. The obtained slip distribution is in good agreement with the surface fault traces. We also performed similar inversions to reveal the rupture process of the 2011 Christchurch earthquake. Our result indicates steep dip and large up-dip slip. This reveals the observed large vertical ground motion around the source region is due to the rupture process, rather than the local subsurface structure. To investigate the effects of the 3-D velocity structure on characteristic strong motion seismograms of the two earthquakes, we plan to perform the inversion taking 3-D velocity structure of this region into account.

Developing a Near Real-time System for Earthquake Slip Distribution Inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Li; Hsieh, Ming-Che; Luo, Yan; Ji, Chen

2016-04-01

Advances in observational and computational seismology in the past two decades have enabled completely automatic and real-time determinations of the focal mechanisms of earthquake point sources. However, seismic radiations from moderate and large earthquakes often exhibit strong finite-source directivity effect, which is critically important for accurate ground motion estimations and earthquake damage assessments. Therefore, an effective procedure to determine earthquake rupture processes in near real-time is in high demand for hazard mitigation and risk assessment purposes. In this study, we develop an efficient waveform inversion approach for the purpose of solving for finite-fault models in 3D structure. Full slip distribution inversions are carried out based on the identified fault planes in the point-source solutions. To ensure efficiency in calculating 3D synthetics during slip distribution inversions, a database of strain Green tensors (SGT) is established for 3D structural model with realistic surface topography. The SGT database enables rapid calculations of accurate synthetic seismograms for waveform inversion on a regular desktop or even a laptop PC. We demonstrate our source inversion approach using two moderate earthquakes (Mw~6.0) in Taiwan and in mainland China. Our results show that 3D velocity model provides better waveform fitting with more spatially concentrated slip distributions. Our source inversion technique based on the SGT database is effective for semi-automatic, near real-time determinations of finite-source solutions for seismic hazard mitigation purposes.

Geotechnical reconnaissance of the 2002 Denali fault, Alaska, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kayen, R.; Thompson, E.; Minasian, D.; Moss, R.E.S.; Collins, B.D.; Sitar, N.; Dreger, D.; Carver, G.

2004-01-01

The 2002 M7.9 Denali fault earthquake resulted in 340 km of ruptures along three separate faults, causing widespread liquefaction in the fluvial deposits of the alpine valleys of the Alaska Range and eastern lowlands of the Tanana River. Areas affected by liquefaction are largely confined to Holocene alluvial deposits, man-made embankments, and backfills. Liquefaction damage, sparse surrounding the fault rupture in the western region, was abundant and severe on the eastern rivers: the Robertson, Slana, Tok, Chisana, Nabesna and Tanana Rivers. Synthetic seismograms from a kinematic source model suggest that the eastern region of the rupture zone had elevated strong-motion levels due to rupture directivity, supporting observations of elevated geotechnical damage. We use augered soil samples and shear-wave velocity profiles made with a portable apparatus for the spectral analysis of surface waves (SASW) to characterize soil properties and stiffness at liquefaction sites and three trans-Alaska pipeline pump station accelerometer locations. ?? 2004, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Source of the 1730 Chilean earthquake from historical records: Implications for the future tsunami hazard on the coast of Metropolitan Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvajal, M.; Cisternas, M.; Catalán, P. A.

2017-05-01

Historical records of an earthquake that occurred in 1730 affecting Metropolitan Chile provide essential clues on the source characteristics for the future earthquakes in the region. The earthquake and tsunami of 1730 have been recognized as the largest to occur in Metropolitan Chile since the beginning of written history. The earthquake destroyed buildings along >1000 km of the coast and produced a large tsunami that caused damage as far as Japan. Here its source characteristics are inferred by comparing local tsunami inundations computed from hypothetical earthquakes with varying magnitude and depth, with those inferred from historical observations. It is found that a 600-800 km long rupture involving average slip amounts of 10-14 m (Mw 9.1-9.3) best explains the observed tsunami heights and inundations. This large earthquake magnitude is supported by the 1730 tsunami heights inferred in Japan. The inundation results combined with local uplift reports suggest a southward increase of the slip depth along the rupture zone of the 1730 earthquake. While shallow slip on the area to the north of the 2010 earthquake rupture zone is required to explain the reported inundation, only deeper slip at this area can explain the coastal uplift reports. Since the later earthquakes of the region involved little or no slip at shallow depths, the near-future earthquakes on Metropolitan Chile could release the shallow slip accumulated since 1730 and thus lead to strong tsunami excitation. Moderate shaking from a shallow earthquake could delay tsunami evacuation for the most populated coastal region of Chile.

Ground-motion site effects from multimethod shear-wave velocity characterization at 16 seismograph stations deployed for aftershocks of the August 2011 Mineral, Virginia earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stephenson, William J.; Odum, Jackson K.; McNamara, Daniel E.; Williams, Robert A.; Angster, Stephen J

2014-01-01

We characterize shear-wave velocity versus depth (Vs profile) at 16 portable seismograph sites through the epicentral region of the 2011 Mw 5.8 Mineral (Virginia, USA) earthquake to investigate ground-motion site effects in the area. We used a multimethod acquisition and analysis approach, where active-source horizontal shear (SH) wave reflection and refraction as well as active-source multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) and passive-source refraction microtremor (ReMi) Rayleigh wave dispersion were interpreted separately. The time-averaged shear-wave velocity to a depth of 30 m (Vs30), interpreted bedrock depth, and site resonant frequency were estimated from the best-fit Vs profile of each method at each location for analysis. Using the median Vs30 value (270–715 m/s) as representative of a given site, we estimate that all 16 sites are National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) site class C or D. Based on a comparison of simplified mapped surface geology to median Vs30 at our sites, we do not see clear evidence for using surface geologic units as a proxy for Vs30 in the epicentral region, although this may primarily be because the units are similar in age (Paleozoic) and may have similar bulk seismic properties. We compare resonant frequencies calculated from ambient noise horizontal:vertical spectral ratios (HVSR) at available sites to predicted site frequencies (generally between 1.9 and 7.6 Hz) derived from the median bedrock depth and average Vs to bedrock. Robust linear regression of HVSR to both site frequency and Vs30 demonstrate moderate correlation to each, and thus both appear to be generally representative of site response in this region. Based on Kendall tau rank correlation testing, we find that Vs30 and the site frequency calculated from average Vs to median interpreted bedrock depth can both be considered reliable predictors of weak-motion site effects in the epicentral region.

Seismicity and stress transfer studies in eastern California and Nevada: Implications for earthquake sources and tectonics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichinose, Gene Aaron

The source parameters for eastern California and western Nevada earthquakes are estimated from regionally recorded seismograms using a moment tensor inversion. We use the point source approximation and fit the seismograms, at long periods. We generated a moment tensor catalog for Mw > 4.0 since 1997 and Mw > 5.0 since 1990. The catalog includes centroid depths, seismic moments, and focal mechanisms. The regions with the most moderate sized earthquakes in the last decade were in aftershock zones located in Eureka Valley, Double Spring Flat, Coso, Ridgecrest, Fish Lake Valley, and Scotty's Junction. The remaining moderate size earthquakes were distributed across the region. The 1993 (Mw 6.0) Eureka Valley earthquake occurred in the Eastern California Shear Zone. Careful aftershock relocations were used to resolve structure from aftershock clusters. The mainshock appears to rupture along the western side of the Last Change Range along a 30° to 60° west dipping fault plane, consistent with previous geodetic modeling. We estimate the source parameters for aftershocks at source-receiver distances less than 20 km using waveform modeling. The relocated aftershocks and waveform modeling results do not indicate any significant evidence of low angle faulting (dips > 30°. The results did reveal deformation along vertical faults within the hanging-wall block, consistent with observed surface rupture along the Saline Range above the dipping fault plane. The 1994 (Mw 5.8) Double Spring Flat earthquake occurred along the eastern Sierra Nevada between overlapping normal faults. Aftershock migration and cross fault triggering occurred in the following two years, producing seventeen Mw > 4 aftershocks The source parameters for the largest aftershocks were estimated from regionally recorded seismograms using moment tensor inversion. We estimate the source parameters for two moderate sized earthquakes which occurred near Reno, Nevada, the 1995 (Mw 4.4) Border Town, and the 1998 (Mw 4.7) Incline Village Earthquakes. We test to see how such stress interactions affected a cluster of six large earthquakes (Mw 6.6 to 7.5) between 1915 to 1954 within the Central Nevada Seismic Belt. We compute the static stress changes for these earthquake using dislocation models based on the location and amount of surface rupture. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Feasibility Study of Earthquake Early Warning in Hawai`i For the Mauna Kea Thirty Meter Telescope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okubo, P.; Hotovec-Ellis, A. J.; Thelen, W. A.; Bodin, P.; Vidale, J. E.

2014-12-01

Earthquakes, including large damaging events, are as central to the geologic evolution of the Island of Hawai`i as its more famous volcanic eruptions and lava flows. Increasing and expanding development of facilities and infrastructure on the island continues to increase exposure and risk associated with strong ground shaking resulting from future large local earthquakes. Damaging earthquakes over the last fifty years have shaken the most heavily developed areas and critical infrastructure of the island to levels corresponding to at least Modified Mercalli Intensity VII. Hawai`i's most recent damaging earthquakes, the M6.7 Kiholo Bay and M6.0 Mahukona earthquakes, struck within seven minutes of one another off of the northwest coast of the island in October 2006. These earthquakes resulted in damage at all thirteen of the telescopes near the summit of Mauna Kea that led to gaps in telescope operations ranging from days up to four months. With the experiences of 2006 and Hawai`i's history of damaging earthquakes, we have begun a study to explore the feasibility of implementing earthquake early warning systems to provide advanced warnings to the Thirty Meter Telescope of imminent strong ground shaking from future local earthquakes. One of the major challenges for earthquake early warning in Hawai`i is the variety of earthquake sources, from shallow crustal faults to deeper mantle sources, including the basal decollement separating the volcanic pile from the ancient oceanic crust. Infrastructure on the Island of Hawai`i may only be tens of kilometers from these sources, allowing warning times of only 20 s or less. We assess the capability of the current seismic network to produce alerts for major historic earthquakes, and we will provide recommendations for upgrades to improve performance.

New seismic sources parameterization in El Salvador. Implications to seismic hazard.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alonso-Henar, Jorge; Staller, Alejandra; Jesús Martínez-Díaz, José; Benito, Belén; Álvarez-Gómez, José Antonio; Canora, Carolina

2014-05-01

El Salvador is located at the pacific active margin of Central America, here, the subduction of the Cocos Plate under the Caribbean Plate at a rate of ~80 mm/yr is the main seismic source. Although the seismic sources located in the Central American Volcanic Arc have been responsible for some of the most damaging earthquakes in El Salvador. The El Salvador Fault Zone is the main geological structure in El Salvador and accommodates 14 mm/yr of horizontal displacement between the Caribbean Plate and the forearc sliver. The ESFZ is a right lateral strike-slip fault zone c. 150 km long and 20 km wide .This shear band distributes the deformation among strike-slip faults trending N90º-100ºE and secondary normal faults trending N120º- N170º. The ESFZ is relieved westward by the Jalpatagua Fault and becomes less clear eastward disappearing at Golfo de Fonseca. Five sections have been proposed for the whole fault zone. These fault sections are (from west to east): ESFZ Western Section, San Vicente Section, Lempa Section, Berlin Section and San Miguel Section. Paleoseismic studies carried out in the Berlin and San Vicente Segments reveal an important amount of quaternary deformation and paleoearthquakes up to Mw 7.6. In this study we present 45 capable seismic sources in El Salvador and their preliminary slip-rate from geological and GPS data. The GPS data detailled results are presented by Staller et al., 2014 in a complimentary communication. The calculated preliminary slip-rates range from 0.5 to 8 mm/yr for individualized faults within the ESFZ. We calculated maximum magnitudes from the mapped lengths and paleoseismic observations.We propose different earthquakes scenario including the potential combined rupture of different fault sections of the ESFZ, resulting in maximum earthquake magnitudes of Mw 7.6. We used deterministic models to calculate acceleration distribution related with maximum earthquakes of the different proposed scenario. The spatial distribution of seismic accelerations are compared and calibrated using the February 13, 2001 earthquake, as control earthquake. To explore the sources of historical earthquakes we compare synthetic acceleration maps with the historical earthquakes of March 6, 1719 and June 8, 1917. control earthquake. To explore the sources of historical earthquakes we compare synthetic acceleration maps with the historical earthquakes of March 6, 1719 and June 8, 1917.

New perspectives on self-similarity for shallow thrust earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denolle, Marine A.; Shearer, Peter M.

2016-09-01

Scaling of dynamic rupture processes from small to large earthquakes is critical to seismic hazard assessment. Large subduction earthquakes are typically remote, and we mostly rely on teleseismic body waves to extract information on their slip rate functions. We estimate the P wave source spectra of 942 thrust earthquakes of magnitude Mw 5.5 and above by carefully removing wave propagation effects (geometrical spreading, attenuation, and free surface effects). The conventional spectral model of a single-corner frequency and high-frequency falloff rate does not explain our data, and we instead introduce a double-corner-frequency model, modified from the Haskell propagating source model, with an intermediate falloff of f-1. The first corner frequency f1 relates closely to the source duration T1, its scaling follows M0∝T13 for Mw<7.5, and changes to M0∝T12 for larger earthquakes. An elliptical rupture geometry better explains the observed scaling than circular crack models. The second time scale T2 varies more weakly with moment, M0∝T25, varies weakly with depth, and can be interpreted either as expressions of starting and stopping phases, as a pulse-like rupture, or a dynamic weakening process. Estimated stress drops and scaled energy (ratio of radiated energy over seismic moment) are both invariant with seismic moment. However, the observed earthquakes are not self-similar because their source geometry and spectral shapes vary with earthquake size. We find and map global variations of these source parameters.

Magnetic, gravity, radiometric, LiDAR, and seismic data to characterize the region of the M5.8 August 23, 2011 earthquake near Mineral, Virginia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shah, A. K.; McNamara, D. E.; Odum, J. K.; Stephenson, W. J.; Kayen, R. E.; Emmett, P. F.; Herrmann, R. B.; Snyder, S. L.; Horton, J. W.; Williams, R. A.

2012-12-01

In response to the M5.8 August 23, 2011 Mineral, VA earthquake, the U.S. Geological Survey and partner organizations acquired or sponsored collection of several geophysical datasets to assist characterization of the earthquake region. Goals include the mapping of the main shock causative and aftershock faults as well as associated geologic features which may be buried or difficult to access, estimates of regional ground motion attenuation, and measurements describing local amplification of seismic energy. The deployment of 46 portable seismic stations by several organizations within days following the earthquake, along with public availability of the resulting data, has greatly aided site characterization efforts. The aftershock data recorded by these stations have allowed delineation of the probable causative fault and other faults that were active afterwards. Using the portable seismograph network and regional permanent stations, S and Lg waves were analyzed to estimate crustal attenuation characteristics. Active- and passive-source seismic experiments were also conducted at many of the portable and permanent stations to characterize site conditions and constrain local response models via estimates of Vs30 and bedrock depth. In March 2012, a LiDAR survey with 8pt/m2 resolution was flown over a ~20x35 km area covering the epicenters of the earthquake and most aftershocks. In July 2012, a high-resolution airborne magnetic, gravity, and radiometric survey was flown over a similar but slightly smaller area. Supplementary ground gravity data have been collected inside and outside of the airborne survey areas. The gravity and magnetic data reflect subsurface features in a region where outcropping rocks are sparse, while LiDAR and radiometric data, respectively, delineate subtle features at the land surface and upper few centimeters. Each of these datasets reflects the regional NE-SW striking fabric. Seismic wave analyses show preferential attenuation in a NW-SE direction, perpendicular to major structures and consistent with estimates of motion intensity such as USGS "Did you feel it?" website responses and local damage reports (Virginia DMME). Preliminary analyses of strong ground motions show measurable differences in shaking over scales of kilometers. Magnetic data show numerous NE-SW lineations, some which extend several tens of km to the northeast from near the aftershock plane, suggesting continuity of some features in that direction. Near the earthquake epicenter and primary aftershock plane, small changes in the orientation of major structures (< 20°) are apparent in magnetic, gravity and topographic data. Detailed analyses to understand possible relations are underway.

Source Mechanisms of Destructive Tsunamigenic Earthquakes occurred along the Major Subduction Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yolsal-Çevikbilen, Seda; Taymaz, Tuncay; Ulutaş, Ergin

2016-04-01

Subduction zones, where an oceanic plate is subducted down into the mantle by tectonic forces, are potential tsunami locations. Many big, destructive and tsunamigenic earthquakes (Mw > 7.5) and high amplitude tsunami waves are observed along the major subduction zones particularly near Indonesia, Japan, Kuril and Aleutan Islands, Gulf of Alaska, Southern America. Not all earthquakes are tsunamigenic; in order to generate a tsunami, the earthquake must occur under or near the ocean, be large, and create significant vertical movements of the seafloor. It is also known that tsunamigenic earthquakes release their energy over a couple of minutes, have long source time functions and slow-smooth ruptures. In this study, we performed point-source inversions by using teleseismic long-period P- and SH- and broad-band P-waveforms recorded by the Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks (FDSN) and the Global Digital Seismograph Network (GDSN) stations. We obtained source mechanism parameters and finite-fault slip distributions of recent destructive ten earthquakes (Mw ≥ 7.5) by comparing the shapes and amplitudes of long period P- and SH-waveforms, recorded in the distance range of 30° - 90°, with synthetic waveforms. We further obtained finite-fault rupture histories of those earthquakes to determine the faulting area (fault length and width), maximum displacement, rupture duration and stress drop. We applied a new back-projection method that uses teleseismic P-waveforms to integrate the direct P-phase with reflected phases from structural discontinuities near the source, and customized it to estimate the spatio-temporal distribution of the seismic energy release of earthquakes. Inversion results exhibit that recent tsunamigenic earthquakes show dominantly thrust faulting mechanisms with small amount of strike-slip components. Their focal depths are also relatively shallow (h < 40 km). As an example, the September 16, 2015 Illapel (Chile) earthquake (Mw: 8.3; h: 26 km) reflects the major characteristics of the Peru-Chile subduction zone between the Nazca and South America Plates. The size, location, depth and focal mechanism of this earthquake are consistent with its occurrence on the megathrust interface in this region. This study is supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK, Project No: CAYDAG - 114Y066).

Characterization of Earthquake-Induced Ground Motion from the L'Aquila Seismic Sequence of 2009, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malagnini, L.; Akinci, A.; Mayeda, K. M.; Munafo', I.; Herrmann, R. B.; Mercuri, A.

2010-12-01

Based only on weak-motion data, we carried out a combined study on region-specific source scaling and crustal attenuation in the Central Apennines (Italy). Our goal was to obtain a reappraisal of the existing predictive relationships for the ground motion, and to test them against the strong-motion data (Peak Ground Acceleration, PGA, Peak Ground Velocity, PGV, and Spectral Acceleration, SA) gathered during the Mw 6.15 L’Aquila earthquake (April 6, 2009, 01:32 UTC). The L’Aquila main-shock was not part of the predictive study, and the validation test was an extrapolation to one magnitude unit above the largest earthquake of the calibration data set. The regional attenuation was determined through a set of regressions on a data set of 12,777 high-quality, high-gain waveforms with excellent S/N ratios (4,259 vertical, and 8,518 horizontal time histories). Seismograms were selected from the recordings of 170 fore-shocks and after-shocks of the sequence (the complete set of all earthquakes with ML ≥ 3.0, from October 1, 2008, to May 10, 2010). All waveforms were downloaded from the ISIDe web page (http://iside.rm.ingv.it/iside/standard/index.jsp), a web site maintained by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). Weak-motion data were used to obtain a moment tensor solution, as well as a coda-based moment-rate source spectrum, for each one of the 170 events of the L’Aquila sequence (2.8 ≤ Mw ≤ 6.15). Source spectra were used to verify the good agreement with the source scaling of the Colfiorito seismic sequence of 1997-98 recently described by Malagnini et al. (2008). Finally, results on source excitation and crustal attenuation were used to produce the absolute site terms for the 23 stations located within ~ 80 km of the epicentral area. The complete set of spectral corrections (crustal attenuation and absolute site effects) was used to implement a fast and accurate tool for the automatic computation of moment magnitudes in the Central Apennines.

Detection of high-frequency radiation sources during the 2004 Parkfield earthquake by a matched filter analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uchide, T.; Shearer, P. M.

2009-12-01

Introduction Uchide and Ide [SSA Spring Meeting, 2009] proposed a new framework for studying the scaling and overall nature of earthquake rupture growth in terms of cumulative moment functions. For better understanding of rupture growth processes, spatiotemporally local processes are also important. The nature of high-frequency (HF) radiation has been investigated for some time, but its role in the earthquake rupture process is still unclear. A wavelet analysis reveals that the HF radiation (e.g., 4 - 32 Hz) of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake is peaky, which implies that the sources of the HF radiation are isolated in space and time. We experiment with applying a matched filter analysis using small template events occurring near the target event rupture area to test whether it can reveal the HF radiation sources for a regular large earthquake. Method We design a matched filter for multiple components and stations. Shelly et al. [2007] attempted identifying low-frequency earthquakes (LFE) in non-volcanic tremor waveforms by stacking the correlation coefficients (CC) between the seismograms of the tremor and the LFE. Differing from their method, our event detection indicator is the CC between the seismograms of the target and template events recorded at the same stations, since the key information for detecting the sources will be the arrival-time differences and the amplitude ratios among stations. Data from both the target and template events are normalized by the maximum amplitude of the seismogram of the template event in the cross-correlation time window. This process accounts for the radiation pattern and distance between the source and stations. At each small earthquake target, high values in the CC time series suggest the possibility of HF radiation during the mainshock rupture from a similar location to the target event. Application to the 2004 Parkfield earthquake We apply the matched filter method to the 2004 Parkfield earthquake (Mw 6.0). We use seismograms recorded at the 13 stations of UPSAR [Fletcher et al, 1992]. At each station, both acceleration and velocity sensors are installed, therefore both large and small earthquakes are observable. We employ 184 earthquakes (M 2.0 - 3.5) as template events, and 0.5 s of the P waves on the vertical components and the S waves on all three components. The data are bandpass-filtered between 4 and 16 Hz. One source is detected at 4 s and 12 km northwest from the hypocenter. Although the CC has generally low values, its peak is more than five times larger than its standard deviation and thus remarkably high. This source is close to the secondary onset revealed by a back-projection analysis of 2 - 8 Hz data from Parkfield strong motion stations [Allmann and Shearer, 2007]. While the back-projection approach images the peak of HF radiation, our method detects the onset time, which is slightly different. Another source is located at 1.2 s and 2 km southeast from the hypocenter, which may correspond to deceleration of the initial rupture. Comparisons of the derived HF radiation sources to the whole rupture process will help us reveal general earthquake source dynamics.

Dynamic strains for earthquake source characterization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbour, Andrew J.; Crowell, Brendan W

2017-01-01

Strainmeters measure elastodynamic deformation associated with earthquakes over a broad frequency band, with detection characteristics that complement traditional instrumentation, but they are commonly used to study slow transient deformation along active faults and at subduction zones, for example. Here, we analyze dynamic strains at Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) borehole strainmeters (BSM) associated with 146 local and regional earthquakes from 2004–2014, with magnitudes from M 4.5 to 7.2. We find that peak values in seismic strain can be predicted from a general regression against distance and magnitude, with improvements in accuracy gained by accounting for biases associated with site–station effects and source–path effects, the latter exhibiting the strongest influence on the regression coefficients. To account for the influence of these biases in a general way, we include crustal‐type classifications from the CRUST1.0 global velocity model, which demonstrates that high‐frequency strain data from the PBO BSM network carry information on crustal structure and fault mechanics: earthquakes nucleating offshore on the Blanco fracture zone, for example, generate consistently lower dynamic strains than earthquakes around the Sierra Nevada microplate and in the Salton trough. Finally, we test our dynamic strain prediction equations on the 2011 M 9 Tohoku‐Oki earthquake, specifically continuous strain records derived from triangulation of 137 high‐rate Global Navigation Satellite System Earth Observation Network stations in Japan. Moment magnitudes inferred from these data and the strain model are in agreement when Global Positioning System subnetworks are unaffected by spatial aliasing.

Stress modulation of earthquakes: A study of long and short period stress perturbations and the crustal response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Christopher W.

Decomposing fault mechanical processes advances our understanding of active fault systems and properties of the lithosphere, thereby increasing the effectiveness of seismic hazard assessment and preventative measures implemented in urban centers. Along plate boundaries earthquakes are inevitable as tectonic forces reshape the Earth's surface. Earthquakes, faulting, and surface displacements are related systems that require multidisciplinary approaches to characterize deformation in the lithosphere. Modern geodetic instrumentation can resolve displacements to millimeter precision and provide valuable insight into secular deformation in near real-time. The expansion of permanent seismic networks as well as temporary deployments allow unprecedented detection of microseismic events that image fault interfaces and fracture networks in the crust. The research presented in this dissertation is at the intersection of seismology and geodesy to study the Earth's response to transient deformation and explores research questions focusing on earthquake triggering, induced seismicity, and seasonal loading while utilizing seismic data, geodetic data, and modeling tools. The focus is to quantify stress changes in the crust, explore seismicity rate variations and migration patterns, and model crustal deformation in order to characterize the evolving state of stress on faults and the migration of fluids in the crust. The collection of problems investigated all investigate the question: Why do earthquakes nucleate following a low magnitude stress perturbation? Answers to this question are fundamental to understanding the time dependent failure processes of the lithosphere. Dynamic triggering is the interaction of faults and triggering of earthquakes represents stress transferring from one system to another, at both local and remote distances [Freed, 2005]. The passage of teleseismic surface waves from the largest earthquakes produce dynamic stress fields and provides a natural laboratory to explore the causal relationship between low-amplitude stress changes and dynamically triggered events. Interestingly, observations of dynamically triggered M≥5.5 earthquakes are absent in the seismic records [Johnson et al., 2015; Parsons and Velasco, 2011], which invokes questions regarding whether or not large magnitude events can be dynamically triggered. Emerging results in the literature indicate undocumented M≥5.5 events at near to intermediate distances are dynamically triggered during the passage of surface waves but are undetected by automated networks [Fan and Shearer, 2016]. This raises new questions about the amplitude and duration of dynamic stressing for large magnitude events. I used 35-years of global seismicity and find that large event rate increases only occur following a delay from the transient load, suggesting aseismic processes are associated with large magnitude triggered events. To extend this finding I investigated three cases of large magnitude delayed dynamic triggering following the M8.6 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake [Pollitz et al., 2012] by producing microseismicity catalogs and modeling the transient stresses. The results indicate immediate triggering of microseismic events that hours later culminate into a large magnitude event and support the notion that large magnitude events are triggerable by transient loading, but seismic and aseismic processes (e.g. induced creep or fluid mobilization) are contributing to the nucleation process. Open questions remain concerning the source of a nucleation delay period following a stress perturbation that require both geodetic and seismic observations to constrain the source of delayed dynamic triggering and possibly provide insight into a precursory nucleation phase. Induced seismicity has gained much attention in the past 5 years as earthquake rates in regions of low tectonic strain accumulation accelerate to unprecedented levels [Ellsworth, 2013]. The source of the seismicity is attributed to shallow fluid injection associated with energy production. As hydrocarbon extraction continues to increase in the U.S. the deformation and induced seismicity from wastewater injection is providing new avenues to explore crustal properties. The large magnitude events associated with regions of high rate injection support the notion that the crust is critically stressed. Seismic data in these areas provides the opportunity to delineate fault structures in the crust using precise earthquake locations. To augment the studies of transient loading cycles I investigated induced seismicity at The Geysers geothermal field in northern California. Using high-resolution hypocenter data I implement an epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model to develop seismicity rate time series in the active geothermal field and characterize the migration of fluids from high volume water injection. Subtle stress changes induced by thermo- and poroelastic strains trigger seismicity for 5 months after peak injection at depths 3 km below the main injection interval. This suggests vertical migration paths are maintained in the geothermal field that allows fluid propagation on annual time scales. Fully describing the migration pattern of fluids in the crust and the associated stresses are applicable to tectonic related faulting and triggered seismic activity. Seasonal hydrological loading is a source of annual periodic transient deformation that is ideal for investigating the modulation of seismicity. The initial step in exploring the modulation of seismicity is to validate that a significant annual period does exist in California earthquake records. The periodicity results [Dutilleul et al., 2015] motivate continued investigation of seismically active regions that experience significant seasonal mass loading, i.e. high precipitation and snowfall rates, to quantify the magnitude of seasonal stress changes and possible correlation with seismicity modulation. The implication of this research addresses questions concerning the strength and state of stress on faults. High-resolution water storage time series throughout California are developed using continuous GPS records. The results allow an estimation of the stress changes induced by hydrological loading, which is combined with a detailed focal mechanism analysis to characterize the modulation of seismicity. The hydrologic loading is augmented with the contribution of additional deformation sources (e.g. tidal, atmosphere, and temperature) and find that annual stress changes of 5 kPa are modulating seismicity, most notably on dip-slip structures. These observations suggest that mechanical differences exist between the vertically dipping strike-slip faults and the shallowly dipping oblique structures in California. When comparing all the annual loading cycles it is evident that future studies incorporate all the sources of solid Earth deformation to fully describe the stresses realized on fault systems that respond to seasonal loads.

Leveraging geodetic data to reduce losses from earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murray, Jessica R.; Roeloffs, Evelyn A.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Langbein, John O.; Leith, William S.; Minson, Sarah E.; Svarc, Jerry L.; Thatcher, Wayne R.

2018-04-23

Seismic hazard assessments that are based on a variety of data and the best available science, coupled with rapid synthesis of real-time information from continuous monitoring networks to guide post-earthquake response, form a solid foundation for effective earthquake loss reduction. With this in mind, the Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Hazards Mission Area (NHMA) engages in a variety of undertakings, both established and emergent, in order to provide high quality products that enable stakeholders to take action in advance of and in response to earthquakes. Examples include the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), development of tools for improved situational awareness such as earthquake early warning (EEW) and operational earthquake forecasting (OEF), research about induced seismicity, and new efforts to advance comprehensive subduction zone science and monitoring. Geodetic observations provide unique and complementary information directly relevant to advancing many aspects of these efforts (fig. 1). EHP scientists have long leveraged geodetic data for a range of influential studies, and they continue to develop innovative observation and analysis methods that push the boundaries of the field of geodesy as applied to natural hazards research. Given the ongoing, rapid improvement in availability, variety, and precision of geodetic measurements, considering ways to fully utilize this observational resource for earthquake loss reduction is timely and essential. This report presents strategies, and the underlying scientific rationale, by which the EHP could achieve the following outcomes: The EHP is an authoritative source for the interpretation of geodetic data and its use for earthquake loss reduction throughout the United States and its territories.The USGS consistently provides timely, high quality geodetic data to stakeholders.Significant earthquakes are better characterized by incorporating geodetic data into USGS event response products and by expanded use of geodetic imaging data to assess fault rupture and source parameters.Uncertainties in the NSHM, and in regional earthquake models, are reduced by fully incorporating geodetic data into earthquake probability calculations.Geodetic networks and data are integrated into the operations and earthquake information products of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS).Earthquake early warnings are improved by more rapidly assessing ground displacement and the dynamic faulting process for the largest earthquakes using real-time geodetic data.Methodology for probabilistic earthquake forecasting is refined by including geodetic data when calculating evolving moment release during aftershock sequences and by better understanding the implications of transient deformation for earthquake likelihood.A geodesy program that encompasses a balanced mix of activities to sustain missioncritical capabilities, grows new competencies through the continuum of fundamental to applied research, and ensures sufficient resources for these endeavors provides a foundation by which the EHP can be a leader in the application of geodesy to earthquake science. With this in mind the following objectives provide a framework to guide EHP efforts:Fully utilize geodetic information to improve key products, such as the NSHM and EEW, and to address new ventures like the USGS Subduction Zone Science Plan.Expand the variety, accuracy, and timeliness of post-earthquake information products, such as PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response), through incorporation of geodetic observations.Determine if geodetic measurements of transient deformation can significantly improve estimates of earthquake probability.Maintain an observational strategy aligned with the target outcomes of this document that includes continuous monitoring, recording of ephemeral observations, focused data collection for use in research, and application-driven data processing and analysis systems.Collaborate on research, development, and operation of affordable, high-precision seafloor geodetic methods that improve earthquake forecasting and event response.Advance computational techniques and instrumentation to enable use of strategies like repeat-pass imagery and low-cost geodetic sensors for earthquake response, monitoring, and research.Engage stakeholders and collaborate with partner institutions to foster operational and research objectives and to safeguard the continued health of geodetic infrastructure upon which we mutually depend.Maintaining a vibrant internal research program provides the foundation by which the EHP can remain an effective and trusted source for earthquake science. Exploiting abundant new data sources, evaluating and assimilating the latest science, and pursuing novel avenues of investigation are means to fulfilling the EHP’s core responsibilities and realizing the important scientific advances envisioned by its scientists. Central to the success of such a research program is engaging personnel with a breadth of competencies and a willingness and ability to adapt these to the program’s evolving priorities, enabling current staff to expand their skills and responsibilities, and planning holistically to meet shared workforce needs. In parallel, collaboration with external partners to support scientific investigations that complement ongoing internal research enables the EHP to strengthen earthquake information products by incorporating alternative perspectives and approaches and to study topics and geographic regions that cannot be adequately covered internally.With commensurate support from technical staff who possess diverse skills, including engineering, information technology, and proficiency in quantitative analysis combined with basic geophysical knowledge, the EHP can achieve the geodetic outcomes identified in this document.

Near-field observations of microearthquake source physics using dense array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Nakata, N.; Abercrombie, R. E.

2017-12-01

The recorded waveform includes contributions from earthquake source properties and propagation effects, leading to long-standing trade-off problems between site/path effects and source effects. This problem is especially significant for small earthquakes where the corner frequencies are within similar ranges of near-site attenuation effects. Fortunately, this problem can be remedied by dense near-field recordings at high frequency, and large databases with wide magnitude range. The 2016 IRIS wavefield experiment provides high-quality recordings of earthquake sequences in north-central Oklahoma with about 400 sensors in 15 km area. Preliminary processing of the IRIS wavefield array resulted with about 20,000 microearthquakes ranging from M-1 to M2, while only 2 earthquakes are listed in the catalog during the same time period. A preliminary examination of the catalog reveals three similar magnitude earthquakes (M 2) occurred at similar locations within 9 seconds of each other. Utilizing this catalog, we will combine individual empirical Green's function (EGF) analysis and stacking over multiple EGFs to examine if there are any systematic variations of source time functions and spectral ratios across the array, which will provide constrains of rupture complexity, directivity and earthquake interactions. For example, this would help us to understand if these three earthquakes rupture overlapping fault patches from cascading failure, or from repeated rupture at the same slip patch due to external stress loading. Deciphering the interaction at smaller scales with near-field observations is important for a controlled earthquake experiment.

Using Simulated Ground Motions to Constrain Near-Source Ground Motion Prediction Equations in Areas Experiencing Induced Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bydlon, S. A.; Dunham, E. M.

2016-12-01

Recent increases in seismic activity in historically quiescent areas such as Oklahoma, Texas, and Arkansas, including large, potentially induced events such as the 2011 Mw 5.6 Prague, OK, earthquake, have spurred the need for investigation into expected ground motions associated with these seismic sources. The neoteric nature of this seismicity increase corresponds to a scarcity of ground motion recordings within 50 km of earthquakes Mw 3.0 and greater, with increasing scarcity at larger magnitudes. Gathering additional near-source ground motion data will help better constraints on regional ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and will happen over time, but this leaves open the possibility of damaging earthquakes occurring before potential ground shaking and seismic hazard in these areas are properly understood. To aid the effort of constraining near-source GMPEs associated with induced seismicity, we integrate synthetic ground motion data from simulated earthquakes into the process. Using the dynamic rupture and seismic wave propagation code waveqlab3d, we perform verification and validation exercises intended to establish confidence in simulated ground motions for use in constraining GMPEs. We verify the accuracy of our ground motion simulator by performing the PEER/SCEC layer-over-halfspace comparison problem LOH.1 Validation exercises to ensure that we are synthesizing realistic ground motion data include comparisons to recorded ground motions for specific earthquakes in target areas of Oklahoma between Mw 3.0 and 4.0. Using a 3D velocity structure that includes a 1D structure with additional small-scale heterogeneity, the properties of which are based on well-log data from Oklahoma, we perform ground motion simulations of small (Mw 3.0 - 4.0) earthquakes using point moment tensor sources. We use the resulting synthetic ground motion data to develop GMPEs for small earthquakes in Oklahoma. Preliminary results indicate that ground motions can be amplified if the source is located in the shallow, sedimentary sequence compared to the basement. Source depth could therefore be an important variable to define explicitly in GMPEs instead of being incorporated into traditional distance metrics. Future work will include the addition of dynamic sources to develop GMPEs for large earthquakes.

Accounting for Fault Roughness in Pseudo-Dynamic Ground-Motion Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mai, P. Martin; Galis, Martin; Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.; Vyas, Jagdish C.; Dunham, Eric M.

2017-09-01

Geological faults comprise large-scale segmentation and small-scale roughness. These multi-scale geometrical complexities determine the dynamics of the earthquake rupture process, and therefore affect the radiated seismic wavefield. In this study, we examine how different parameterizations of fault roughness lead to variability in the rupture evolution and the resulting near-fault ground motions. Rupture incoherence naturally induced by fault roughness generates high-frequency radiation that follows an ω-2 decay in displacement amplitude spectra. Because dynamic rupture simulations are computationally expensive, we test several kinematic source approximations designed to emulate the observed dynamic behavior. When simplifying the rough-fault geometry, we find that perturbations in local moment tensor orientation are important, while perturbations in local source location are not. Thus, a planar fault can be assumed if the local strike, dip, and rake are maintained. We observe that dynamic rake angle variations are anti-correlated with the local dip angles. Testing two parameterizations of dynamically consistent Yoffe-type source-time function, we show that the seismic wavefield of the approximated kinematic ruptures well reproduces the radiated seismic waves of the complete dynamic source process. This finding opens a new avenue for an improved pseudo-dynamic source characterization that captures the effects of fault roughness on earthquake rupture evolution. By including also the correlations between kinematic source parameters, we outline a new pseudo-dynamic rupture modeling approach for broadband ground-motion simulation.

Navigating Earthquake Physics with High-Resolution Array Back-Projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Lingsen

Understanding earthquake source dynamics is a fundamental goal of geophysics. Progress toward this goal has been slow due to the gap between state-of-art earthquake simulations and the limited source imaging techniques based on conventional low-frequency finite fault inversions. Seismic array processing is an alternative source imaging technique that employs the higher frequency content of the earthquakes and provides finer detail of the source process with few prior assumptions. While the back-projection provides key observations of previous large earthquakes, the standard beamforming back-projection suffers from low resolution and severe artifacts. This thesis introduces the MUSIC technique, a high-resolution array processing method that aims to narrow the gap between the seismic observations and earthquake simulations. The MUSIC is a high-resolution method taking advantage of the higher order signal statistics. The method has not been widely used in seismology yet because of the nonstationary and incoherent nature of the seismic signal. We adapt MUSIC to transient seismic signal by incorporating the Multitaper cross-spectrum estimates. We also adopt a "reference window" strategy that mitigates the "swimming artifact," a systematic drift effect in back projection. The improved MUSIC back projections allow the imaging of recent large earthquakes in finer details which give rise to new perspectives on dynamic simulations. In the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, we observe frequency-dependent rupture behaviors which relate to the material variation along the dip of the subduction interface. In the 2012 off-Sumatra earthquake, we image the complicated ruptures involving orthogonal fault system and an usual branching direction. This result along with our complementary dynamic simulations probes the pressure-insensitive strength of the deep oceanic lithosphere. In another example, back projection is applied to the 2010 M7 Haiti earthquake recorded at regional distance. The high-frequency subevents are located at the edges of geodetic slip regions, which are correlated to the stopping phases associated with rupture speed reduction when the earthquake arrests.

Normal Fault Type Earthquakes Off Fukushima Region - Comparison of the 1938 Events and Recent Earthquakes -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murotani, S.; Satake, K.

2017-12-01

Off Fukushima region, Mjma 7.4 (event A) and 6.9 (event B) events occurred on November 6, 1938, following the thrust fault type earthquakes of Mjma 7.5 and 7.3 on the previous day. These earthquakes were estimated as normal fault earthquakes by Abe (1977, Tectonophysics). An Mjma 7.0 earthquake occurred on July 12, 2014 near event B and an Mjma 7.4 earthquake occurred on November 22, 2016 near event A. These recent events are the only M 7 class earthquakes occurred off Fukushima since 1938. Except for the two 1938 events, normal fault earthquakes have not occurred until many aftershocks of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. We compared the observed tsunami and seismic waveforms of the 1938, 2014, and 2016 earthquakes to examine the normal fault earthquakes occurred off Fukushima region. It is difficult to compare the tsunami waveforms of the 1938, 2014 and 2016 events because there were only a few observations at the same station. The teleseismic body wave inversion of the 2016 earthquake yielded with the focal mechanism of strike 42°, dip 35°, and rake -94°. Other source parameters were as follows: source area 70 km x 40 km, average slip 0.2 m, maximum slip 1.2 m, seismic moment 2.2 x 1019 Nm, and Mw 6.8. A large slip area is located near the hypocenter, and it is compatible with the tsunami source area estimated from tsunami travel times. The 2016 tsunami source area is smaller than that of the 1938 event, consistent with the difference in Mw: 7.7 for event A estimated by Abe (1977) and 6.8 for the 2016 event. Although the 2014 epicenter is very close to that of event B, the teleseismic waveforms of the 2014 event are similar to those of event A and the 2016 event. While Abe (1977) assumed that the mechanism of event B was the same as event A, the initial motions at some stations are opposite, indicating that the focal mechanisms of events A and B are different and more detailed examination is needed. The normal fault type earthquake seems to occur following the occurrence of M7 9 class thrust type earthquake at the plate boundary off Fukushima region.

Constructing new seismograms from old earthquakes: Retrospective seismology at multiple length scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Entwistle, Elizabeth; Curtis, Andrew; Galetti, Erica; Baptie, Brian; Meles, Giovanni

2015-04-01

If energy emitted by a seismic source such as an earthquake is recorded on a suitable backbone array of seismometers, source-receiver interferometry (SRI) is a method that allows those recordings to be projected to the location of another target seismometer, providing an estimate of the seismogram that would have been recorded at that location. Since the other seismometer may not have been deployed at the time the source occurred, this renders possible the concept of 'retrospective seismology' whereby the installation of a sensor at one period of time allows the construction of virtual seismograms as though that sensor had been active before or after its period of installation. Using the benefit of hindsight of earthquake location or magnitude estimates, SRI can establish new measurement capabilities closer to earthquake epicenters, thus potentially improving earthquake location estimates. Recently we showed that virtual SRI seismograms can be constructed on target sensors in both industrial seismic and earthquake seismology settings, using both active seismic sources and ambient seismic noise to construct SRI propagators, and on length scales ranging over 5 orders of magnitude from ~40 m to ~2500 km[1]. Here we present the results from earthquake seismology by comparing virtual earthquake seismograms constructed at target sensors by SRI to those actually recorded on the same sensors. We show that spatial integrations required by interferometric theory can be calculated over irregular receiver arrays by embedding these arrays within 2D spatial Voronoi cells, thus improving spatial interpolation and interferometric results. The results of SRI are significantly improved by restricting the backbone receiver array to include approximately those receivers that provide a stationary phase contribution to the interferometric integrals. We apply both correlation-correlation and correlation-convolution SRI, and show that the latter constructs virtual seismograms with fewer non-physical arrivals. Finally we reconstruct earthquake seismograms at sensors that were previously active but were subsequently removed before the earthquakes occurred; thus we create virtual earthquake seismograms at those sensors, truly retrospectively. Such SRI seismograms can be used to create a catalogue of new, virtual earthquake seismograms that are available to complement real earthquake data in future earthquake seismology studies. [1]E. Entwistle, Curtis, A., Galetti, E., Baptie, B., Meles, G., Constructing new seismograms from old earthquakes: Retrospective seismology at multiple length scales, JGR, in press.

Focal mechanisms of earthquakes in Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sodnomsambuu, D.; Natalia, R.; Gangaadorj, B.; Munkhuu, U.; Davaasuren, G.; Danzansan, E.; Yan, R.; Valentina, M.; Battsetseg, B.

2011-12-01

Focal mechanism data provide information on the relative magnitudes of the principal stresses, so that a tectonic regime can be assigned. Especially such information is useful for the study of intraplate seismic active regions. A study of earthquake focal mechanisms in the territory of Mongolia as landlocked and intraplate region was conducted. We present map of focal mechanisms of earthquakes with M4.5 which occurred in Mongolia and neighboring regions. Focal mechanisms solutions were constrained by the first motion solutions, as well as by waveform modeling, particularly CMT solutions. Four earthquakes have been recorded in Mongolia in XX century with magnitude more than 8, the 1905 M7.9 Tsetserleg and M8.4 Bolnai earthquakes, the 1931 M8.0 Fu Yun earthquake, the 1957 M8.1 Gobi-Altai earthquake. However the map of focal mechanisms of earthquakes in Mongolia allows seeing all seismic active structures: Gobi Altay, Mongolian Altay, active fringe of Hangay dome, Hentii range etc. Earthquakes in the most of Mongolian territory and neighboring China regions are characterized by strike-slip and reverse movements. Strike-slip movements also are typical for earthquakes in Altay Range in Russia. The north of Mongolia and south part of the Baikal area is a region where have been occurred earthquakes with different focal mechanisms. This region is a zone of the transition between compressive regime associated to India-Eurasian collision and extensive structures localized in north of the country as Huvsgul area and Baykal rift. Earthquakes in the Baikal basin itself are characterized by normal movements. Earthquakes in Trans-Baikal zone and NW of Mongolia are characterized dominantly by strike-slip movements. Analysis of stress-axis orientations, the tectonic stress tensor is presented. The map of focal mechanisms of earthquakes in Mongolia could be useful tool for researchers in their study on Geodynamics of Central Asia, particularly of Mongolian and Baikal regions.

Lisbon 1755, a multiple-rupture earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fonseca, J. F. B. D.

2017-12-01

The Lisbon earthquake of 1755 poses a challenge to seismic hazard assessment. Reports pointing to MMI 8 or above at distances of the order of 500km led to magnitude estimates near M9 in classic studies. A refined analysis of the coeval sources lowered the estimates to 8.7 (Johnston, 1998) and 8.5 (Martinez-Solares, 2004). I posit that even these lower magnitude values reflect the combined effect of multiple ruptures. Attempts to identify a single source capable of explaining the damage reports with published ground motion models did not gather consensus and, compounding the challenge, the analysis of tsunami traveltimes has led to disparate source models, sometimes separated by a few hundred kilometers. From this viewpoint, the most credible source would combine a sub-set of the multiple active structures identifiable in SW Iberia. No individual moment magnitude needs to be above M8.1, thus rendering the search for candidate structures less challenging. The possible combinations of active structures should be ranked as a function of their explaining power, for macroseismic intensities and tsunami traveltimes taken together. I argue that the Lisbon 1755 earthquake is an example of a distinct class of intraplate earthquake previously unrecognized, of which the Indian Ocean earthquake of 2012 is the first instrumentally recorded example, showing space and time correlation over scales of the orders of a few hundred km and a few minutes. Other examples may exist in the historical record, such as the M8 1556 Shaanxi earthquake, with an unusually large damage footprint (MMI equal or above 6 in 10 provinces; 830000 fatalities). The ability to trigger seismicity globally, observed after the 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake, may be a characteristic of this type of event: occurrences in Massachussets (M5.9 Cape Ann earthquake on 18/11/1755), Morocco (M6.5 Fez earthquake on 27/11/1755) and Germany (M6.1 Duren earthquake, on 18/02/1756) had in all likelyhood a causal link to the Lisbon earthquake. This may reflect the very long period of surface waves generated by the combined sources as a result of the delays between ruptures. Recognition of this new class of large intraplate earthquakes may pave the way to a better understanding of the mechanisms driving intraplate deformation.

Earthquake source parameters along the Hellenic subduction zone and numerical simulations of historical tsunamis in the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yolsal-Çevikbilen, Seda; Taymaz, Tuncay

2012-04-01

We studied source mechanism parameters and slip distributions of earthquakes with Mw ≥ 5.0 occurred during 2000-2008 along the Hellenic subduction zone by using teleseismic P- and SH-waveform inversion methods. In addition, the major and well-known earthquake-induced Eastern Mediterranean tsunamis (e.g., 365, 1222, 1303, 1481, 1494, 1822 and 1948) were numerically simulated and several hypothetical tsunami scenarios were proposed to demonstrate the characteristics of tsunami waves, propagations and effects of coastal topography. The analogy of current plate boundaries, earthquake source mechanisms, various earthquake moment tensor catalogues and several empirical self-similarity equations, valid for global or local scales, were used to assume conceivable source parameters which constitute the initial and boundary conditions in simulations. Teleseismic inversion results showed that earthquakes along the Hellenic subduction zone can be classified into three major categories: [1] focal mechanisms of the earthquakes exhibiting E-W extension within the overriding Aegean plate; [2] earthquakes related to the African-Aegean convergence; and [3] focal mechanisms of earthquakes lying within the subducting African plate. Normal faulting mechanisms with left-lateral strike slip components were observed at the eastern part of the Hellenic subduction zone, and we suggest that they were probably concerned with the overriding Aegean plate. However, earthquakes involved in the convergence between the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean lithospheres indicated thrust faulting mechanisms with strike slip components, and they had shallow focal depths (h < 45 km). Deeper earthquakes mainly occurred in the subducting African plate, and they presented dominantly strike slip faulting mechanisms. Slip distributions on fault planes showed both complex and simple rupture propagations with respect to the variation of source mechanism and faulting geometry. We calculated low stress drop values (Δσ < 30 bars) for all earthquakes implying typically interplate seismic activity in the region. Further, results of numerical simulations verified that damaging historical tsunamis along the Hellenic subduction zone are able to threaten especially the coastal plains of Crete and Rhodes islands, SW Turkey, Cyprus, Levantine, and Nile Delta-Egypt regions. Thus, we tentatively recommend that special care should be considered in the evaluation of the tsunami risk assessment of the Eastern Mediterranean region for future studies.

Dynamic rupture scenarios from Sumatra to Iceland - High-resolution earthquake source physics on natural fault systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabriel, A. A.; Madden, E. H.; Ulrich, T.; Wollherr, S.

2016-12-01

Capturing the observed complexity of earthquake sources in dynamic rupture simulations may require: non-linear fault friction, thermal and fluid effects, heterogeneous fault stress and strength initial conditions, fault curvature and roughness, on- and off-fault non-elastic failure. All of these factors have been independently shown to alter dynamic rupture behavior and thus possibly influence the degree of realism attainable via simulated ground motions. In this presentation we will show examples of high-resolution earthquake scenarios, e.g. based on the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake and a potential rupture of the Husavik-Flatey fault system in Northern Iceland. The simulations combine a multitude of representations of source complexity at the necessary spatio-temporal resolution enabled by excellent scalability on modern HPC systems. Such simulations allow an analysis of the dominant factors impacting earthquake source physics and ground motions given distinct tectonic settings or distinct focuses of seismic hazard assessment. Across all simulations, we find that fault geometry concurrently with the regional background stress state provide a first order influence on source dynamics and the emanated seismic wave field. The dynamic rupture models are performed with SeisSol, a software package based on an ADER-Discontinuous Galerkin scheme for solving the spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture problem with high-order accuracy in space and time. Use of unstructured tetrahedral meshes allows for a realistic representation of the non-planar fault geometry, subsurface structure and bathymetry. The results presented highlight the fact that modern numerical methods are essential to further our understanding of earthquake source physics and complement both physic-based ground motion research and empirical approaches in seismic hazard analysis.

Fault healing and earthquake spectra from stick slip sequences in the laboratory and on active faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLaskey, G. C.; Glaser, S. D.; Thomas, A.; Burgmann, R.

2011-12-01

Repeating earthquake sequences (RES) are thought to occur on isolated patches of a fault that fail in repeated stick-slip fashion. RES enable researchers to study the effect of variations in earthquake recurrence time and the relationship between fault healing and earthquake generation. Fault healing is thought to be the physical process responsible for the 'state' variable in widely used rate- and state-dependent friction equations. We analyze RES created in laboratory stick slip experiments on a direct shear apparatus instrumented with an array of very high frequency (1KHz - 1MHz) displacement sensors. Tests are conducted on the model material polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA). While frictional properties of this glassy polymer can be characterized with the rate- and state- dependent friction laws, the rate of healing in PMMA is higher than room temperature rock. Our experiments show that in addition to a modest increase in fault strength and stress drop with increasing healing time, there are distinct spectral changes in the recorded laboratory earthquakes. Using the impact of a tiny sphere on the surface of the test specimen as a known source calibration function, we are able to remove the instrument and apparatus response from recorded signals so that the source spectrum of the laboratory earthquakes can be accurately estimated. The rupture of a fault that was allowed to heal produces a laboratory earthquake with increased high frequency content compared to one produced by a fault which has had less time to heal. These laboratory results are supported by observations of RES on the Calaveras and San Andreas faults, which show similar spectral changes when recurrence time is perturbed by a nearby large earthquake. Healing is typically attributed to a creep-like relaxation of the material which causes the true area of contact of interacting asperity populations to increase with time in a quasi-logarithmic way. The increase in high frequency seismicity shown here suggests that fault healing produces an increase in fault strength heterogeneity on a small spatial scale. A fault which has healed may possess an asperity population which will allow less slip to be accumulated aseismically, will rupture faster and more violently, and produce more high frequency seismic waves than one which has not healed.

Preliminary Hazard Assessment for Tectonic Tsunamis in the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aydin, B.; Bayazitoglu, O.; Sharghi vand, N.; Kanoglu, U.

2017-12-01

There are many critical industrial facilities such as energy production units and energy transmission lines along the southeast coast of Turkey. This region is also active on tourism, and agriculture and aquaculture production. There are active faults in the region, i.e. the Cyprus Fault, which extends along the Mediterranean basin in the east-west direction and connects to the Hellenic Arc. Both the Cyprus Fault and the Hellenic Arc are seismologically active and are capable of generating earthquakes with tsunamigenic potential. Even a small tsunami in the region could cause confusion as shown by the recent 21 July 2017 earthquake of Mw 6.6, which occurred in the Aegean Sea, between Bodrum, Turkey and Kos Island, Greece since region is not prepared for such an event. Moreover, the Mediterranean Sea is one of the most vulnerable regions against sea level rise due to global warming, according to the 5th Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For these reasons, a marine hazard such as a tsunami can cause much worse damage than expected in the region (Kanoglu et al., Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 373, 2015). Hence, tsunami hazard assessment is required for the region. In this study, we first characterize earthquakes which have potential to generate a tsunami in the Eastern Mediterranean. Such study is a prerequisite for regional tsunami mitigation studies. For fast and timely predictions, tsunami warning systems usually employ databases that store pre-computed tsunami propagation resulting from hypothetical earthquakes with pre-defined parameters. These pre-defined sources are called tsunami unit sources and they are linearly superposed to mimic a real event, since wave propagation is linear offshore. After investigating historical earthquakes along the Cyprus Fault and the Hellenic Arc, we identified tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Eastern Mediterranean and proposed tsunami unit sources for the region. We used the tsunami numerical model MOST (Titov et al., J. Waterw. Port Coastal Ocean Eng. 142(6), 2016) to numerically solve the nonlinear shallow water-wave equations for calculating offshore wave propagation, shoreline wave heights, and inundation depths through its interface ComMIT (Titov et al., Pure Appl. Geophys. 168(11), 2011) and generated inundation map for one town in the southeast coast of Turkey.

A phase coherence approach to estimating the spatial extent of earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawthorne, Jessica C.; Ampuero, Jean-Paul

2016-04-01

We present a new method for estimating the spatial extent of seismic sources. The approach takes advantage of an inter-station phase coherence computation that can identify co-located sources (Hawthorne and Ampuero, 2014). Here, however, we note that the phase coherence calculation can eliminate the Green's function and give high values only if both earthquakes are point sources---if their dimensions are much smaller than the wavelengths of the propagating seismic waves. By examining the decrease in coherence at higher frequencies (shorter wavelengths), we can estimate the spatial extents of the earthquake ruptures. The approach can to some extent be seen as a simple way of identifying directivity or variations in the apparent source time functions recorded at various stations. We apply this method to a set of well-recorded earthquakes near Parkfield, CA. We show that when the signal to noise ratio is high, the phase coherence remains high well above 50 Hz for closely spaced M<1.5 earthquake. The high-frequency phase coherence is smaller for larger earthquakes, suggesting larger spatial extents. The implied radii scale roughly as expected from typical magnitude-corner frequency scalings. We also examine a second source of high-frequency decoherence: spatial variation in the shape of the Green's functions. This spatial decoherence appears to occur on a similar wavelengths as the decoherence associated with the apparent source time functions. However, the variation in Green's functions can be normalized away to some extent by comparing observations at multiple components on a single station, which see the same apparent source time functions.

Analysis of Earthquake Source Spectra in Salton Trough

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Shearer, P. M.

2009-12-01

Previous studies of the source spectra of small earthquakes in southern California show that average Brune-type stress drops vary among different regions, with particularly low stress drops observed in the Salton Trough (Shearer et al., 2006). The Salton Trough marks the southern end of the San Andreas Fault and is prone to earthquake swarms, some of which are driven by aseismic creep events (Lohman and McGuire, 2007). In order to learn the stress state and understand the physical mechanisms of swarms and slow slip events, we analyze the source spectra of earthquakes in this region. We obtain Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) waveforms for earthquakes from 1977 to 2009 archived at the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) data center, which includes over 17,000 events. After resampling the data to a uniform 100 Hz sample rate, we compute spectra for both signal and noise windows for each seismogram, and select traces with a P-wave signal-to-noise ratio greater than 5 between 5 Hz and 15 Hz. Using selected displacement spectra, we isolate the source spectra from station terms and path effects using an empirical Green’s function approach. From the corrected source spectra, we compute corner frequencies and estimate moments and stress drops. Finally we analyze spatial and temporal variations in stress drop in the Salton Trough and compare them with studies of swarms and creep events to assess the evolution of faulting and stress in the region. References: Lohman, R. B., and J. J. McGuire (2007), Earthquake swarms driven by aseismic creep in the Salton Trough, California, J. Geophys. Res., 112, B04405, doi:10.1029/2006JB004596 Shearer, P. M., G. A. Prieto, and E. Hauksson (2006), Comprehensive analysis of earthquake source spectra in southern California, J. Geophys. Res., 111, B06303, doi:10.1029/2005JB003979.

Earthquake source properties from pseudotachylite

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beeler, Nicholas M.; Di Toro, Giulio; Nielsen, Stefan

2016-01-01

The motions radiated from an earthquake contain information that can be interpreted as displacements within the source and therefore related to stress drop. Except in a few notable cases, the source displacements can neither be easily related to the absolute stress level or fault strength, nor attributed to a particular physical mechanism. In contrast paleo-earthquakes recorded by exhumed pseudotachylite have a known dynamic mechanism whose properties constrain the co-seismic fault strength. Pseudotachylite can also be used to directly address a longstanding discrepancy between seismologically measured static stress drops, which are typically a few MPa, and much larger dynamic stress drops expected from thermal weakening during localized slip at seismic speeds in crystalline rock [Sibson, 1973; McKenzie and Brune, 1969; Lachenbruch, 1980; Mase and Smith, 1986; Rice, 2006] as have been observed recently in laboratory experiments at high slip rates [Di Toro et al., 2006a]. This note places pseudotachylite-derived estimates of fault strength and inferred stress levels within the context and broader bounds of naturally observed earthquake source parameters: apparent stress, stress drop, and overshoot, including consideration of roughness of the fault surface, off-fault damage, fracture energy, and the 'strength excess'. The analysis, which assumes stress drop is related to corner frequency by the Madariaga [1976] source model, is restricted to the intermediate sized earthquakes of the Gole Larghe fault zone in the Italian Alps where the dynamic shear strength is well-constrained by field and laboratory measurements. We find that radiated energy exceeds the shear-generated heat and that the maximum strength excess is ~16 MPa. More generally these events have inferred earthquake source parameters that are rate, for instance a few percent of the global earthquake population has stress drops as large, unless: fracture energy is routinely greater than existing models allow, pseudotachylite is not representative of the shear strength during the earthquake that generated it, or unless the strength excess is larger than we have allowed.

Prediction of Strong Earthquake Ground Motion for the M=7.4 and M=7.2 1999, Turkey Earthquakes based upon Geological Structure Modeling and Local Earthquake Recordings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gok, R.; Hutchings, L.

2004-05-01

We test a means to predict strong ground motion using the Mw=7.4 and Mw=7.2 1999 Izmit and Duzce, Turkey earthquakes. We generate 100 rupture scenarios for each earthquake, constrained by a prior knowledge, and use these to synthesize strong ground motion and make the prediction. Ground motion is synthesized with the representation relation using impulsive point source Green's functions and synthetic source models. We synthesize the earthquakes from DC to 25 Hz. We demonstrate how to incorporate this approach into standard probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA). The synthesis of earthquakes is based upon analysis of over 3,000 aftershocks recorded by several seismic networks. The analysis provides source parameters of the aftershocks; records available for use as empirical Green's functions; and a three-dimensional velocity structure from tomographic inversion. The velocity model is linked to a finite difference wave propagation code (E3D, Larsen 1998) to generate synthetic Green's functions (DC < f < 0.5 Hz). We performed the simultaneous inversion for hypocenter locations and three-dimensional P-wave velocity structure of the Marmara region using SIMULPS14 along with 2,500 events. We also obtained source moment and corner frequency and individual station attenuation parameter estimates for over 500 events by performing a simultaneous inversion to fit these parameters with a Brune source model. We used the results of the source inversion to deconvolve out a Brune model from small to moderate size earthquake (M<4.0) recordings to obtain empirical Green's functions for the higher frequency range of ground motion (0.5 < f < 25.0 Hz). Work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract W-7405-ENG-48.

A rapid estimation of tsunami run-up based on finite fault models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campos, J.; Fuentes, M. A.; Hayes, G. P.; Barrientos, S. E.; Riquelme, S.

2014-12-01

Many efforts have been made to estimate the maximum run-up height of tsunamis associated with large earthquakes. This is a difficult task, because of the time it takes to construct a tsunami model using real time data from the source. It is possible to construct a database of potential seismic sources and their corresponding tsunami a priori. However, such models are generally based on uniform slip distributions and thus oversimplify our knowledge of the earthquake source. Instead, we can use finite fault models of earthquakes to give a more accurate prediction of the tsunami run-up. Here we show how to accurately predict tsunami run-up from any seismic source model using an analytic solution found by Fuentes et al, 2013 that was especially calculated for zones with a very well defined strike, i.e, Chile, Japan, Alaska, etc. The main idea of this work is to produce a tool for emergency response, trading off accuracy for quickness. Our solutions for three large earthquakes are promising. Here we compute models of the run-up for the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule Earthquake, the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake, and the recent 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique Earthquake. Our maximum rup-up predictions are consistent with measurements made inland after each event, with a peak of 15 to 20 m for Maule, 40 m for Tohoku, and 2,1 m for the Iquique earthquake. Considering recent advances made in the analysis of real time GPS data and the ability to rapidly resolve the finiteness of a large earthquake close to existing GPS networks, it will be possible in the near future to perform these calculations within the first five minutes after the occurrence of any such event. Such calculations will thus provide more accurate run-up information than is otherwise available from existing uniform-slip seismic source databases.

Summary of workshops concerning regional seismic source zones of parts of the conterminous United States, convened by the U.S. Geological Survey, 1979-1980, Golden, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thenhaus, P.C.; McKeown, F.A.; Bucknam, R.C.; Ross, D.C.; Anderson, R.E.; Irwin, W.P.; Russ, D.P.; Diment, W.H.; Thenhaus, Paul C.

1983-01-01

Workshops were convened by the U.S. Geological Survey to obtain the latest information and concepts relative to defining seismic source zones for five regions of the United States. The zones, with some modifications, have been used in preparation of new national probabilistic ground motion hazard maps by the U.S. Geological Survey. The five regions addressed are the Great Basin, the Northern Rocky Mountains, the Southern Rocky Mountains, the Central Interior, and the northeastern United States. Discussions at the workshops focussed on possible temporal and spatial variations of seismicity within the regions, latest ages of surface-fault displacements, most recent uplift or subsidence, geologic structural provinces as they relate to seismicity, and speculation on earthquake causes. Within the Great Basin region, the zones conform to areas characterized by a predominance of faults that have certain ages of latest surface displacements. In the Northern and Southern Rocky Mountain regions, zones primarily conform to distinctive structural terrane. In the Central Interior, primary emphasis was placed on an interpretation of the areal distribution of historic seismicity, although geophysical studies in the Reelfoot rift area provided data for defining zones in the New Madrid earthquake area. An interpretation of the historic seismicity also provided the basis for drawing the zones of the New England region. Estimates of earthquake maximum magnitudes and of recurrence times for these earthquakes are given for most of the zones and are based on either geologic data or opinion.

Seismological investigation of earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone. Final report, September 1986--December 1992

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herrmann, R.B.; Nguyen, B.

Earthquake activity in the New Madrid Seismic Zone had been monitored by regional seismic networks since 1975. During this time period, over 3,700 earthquakes have been located within the region bounded by latitudes 35{degrees}--39{degrees}N and longitudes 87{degrees}--92{degrees}W. Most of these earthquakes occur within a 1.5{degrees} x 2{degrees} zone centered on the Missouri Bootheel. Source parameters of larger earthquakes in the zone and in eastern North America are determined using surface-wave spectral amplitudes and broadband waveforms for the purpose of determining the focal mechanism, source depth and seismic moment. Waveform modeling of broadband data is shown to be a powerful toolmore » in defining these source parameters when used complementary with regional seismic network data, and in addition, in verifying the correctness of previously published focal mechanism solutions.« less

Real-time earthquake monitoring using a search engine method.

PubMed

Zhang, Jie; Zhang, Haijiang; Chen, Enhong; Zheng, Yi; Kuang, Wenhuan; Zhang, Xiong

2014-12-04

When an earthquake occurs, seismologists want to use recorded seismograms to infer its location, magnitude and source-focal mechanism as quickly as possible. If such information could be determined immediately, timely evacuations and emergency actions could be undertaken to mitigate earthquake damage. Current advanced methods can report the initial location and magnitude of an earthquake within a few seconds, but estimating the source-focal mechanism may require minutes to hours. Here we present an earthquake search engine, similar to a web search engine, that we developed by applying a computer fast search method to a large seismogram database to find waveforms that best fit the input data. Our method is several thousand times faster than an exact search. For an Mw 5.9 earthquake on 8 March 2012 in Xinjiang, China, the search engine can infer the earthquake's parameters in <1 s after receiving the long-period surface wave data.

Research on response spectrum of dam based on scenario earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaoliang; Zhang, Yushan

2017-10-01

Taking a large hydropower station as an example, the response spectrum based on scenario earthquake is determined. Firstly, the potential source of greatest contribution to the site is determined on the basis of the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Secondly, the magnitude and epicentral distance of the scenario earthquake are calculated according to the main faults and historical earthquake of the potential seismic source zone. Finally, the response spectrum of scenario earthquake is calculated using the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) relations. The response spectrum based on scenario earthquake method is less than the probability-consistent response spectrum obtained by PSHA method. The empirical analysis shows that the response spectrum of scenario earthquake considers the probability level and the structural factors, and combines the advantages of the deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methods. It is easy for people to accept and provide basis for seismic engineering of hydraulic engineering.

Variable anelastic attenuation and site effect in estimating source parameters of various major earthquakes including M w 7.8 Nepal and M w 7.5 Hindu kush earthquake by using far-field strong-motion data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Naresh; Kumar, Parveen; Chauhan, Vishal; Hazarika, Devajit

2017-10-01

Strong-motion records of recent Gorkha Nepal earthquake ( M w 7.8), its strong aftershocks and seismic events of Hindu kush region have been analysed for estimation of source parameters. The M w 7.8 Gorkha Nepal earthquake of 25 April 2015 and its six aftershocks of magnitude range 5.3-7.3 are recorded at Multi-Parametric Geophysical Observatory, Ghuttu, Garhwal Himalaya (India) >600 km west from the epicentre of main shock of Gorkha earthquake. The acceleration data of eight earthquakes occurred in the Hindu kush region also recorded at this observatory which is located >1000 km east from the epicentre of M w 7.5 Hindu kush earthquake on 26 October 2015. The shear wave spectra of acceleration record are corrected for the possible effects of anelastic attenuation at both source and recording site as well as for site amplification. The strong-motion data of six local earthquakes are used to estimate the site amplification and the shear wave quality factor ( Q β) at recording site. The frequency-dependent Q β( f) = 124 f 0.98 is computed at Ghuttu station by using inversion technique. The corrected spectrum is compared with theoretical spectrum obtained from Brune's circular model for the horizontal components using grid search algorithm. Computed seismic moment, stress drop and source radius of the earthquakes used in this work range 8.20 × 1016-5.72 × 1020 Nm, 7.1-50.6 bars and 3.55-36.70 km, respectively. The results match with the available values obtained by other agencies.

The energy radiated by the 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake estimated from 10-minute P-wave windows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Choy, G.L.; Boatwright, J.

2007-01-01

The rupture process of the Mw 9.1 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake lasted for approximately 500 sec, nearly twice as long as the teleseismic time windows between the P and PP arrival times generally used to compute radiated energy. In order to measure the P waves radiated by the entire earthquake, we analyze records that extend from the P-wave to the S-wave arrival times from stations at distances ?? >60??. These 8- to 10-min windows contain the PP, PPP, and ScP arrivals, along with other multiply reflected phases. To gauge the effect of including these additional phases, we form the spectral ratio of the source spectrum estimated from extended windows (between TP and TS) to the source spectrum estimated from normal windows (between TP and TPP). The extended windows are analyzed as though they contained only the P-pP-sP wave group. We analyze four smaller earthquakes that occurred in the vicinity of the Mw 9.1 mainshock, with similar depths and focal mechanisms. These smaller events range in magnitude from an Mw 6.0 aftershock of 9 January 2005 to the Mw 8.6 Nias earthquake that occurred to the south of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on 28 March 2005. We average the spectral ratios for these four events to obtain a frequency-dependent operator for the extended windows. We then correct the source spectrum estimated from the extended records of the 26 December 2004 mainshock to obtain a complete or corrected source spectrum for the entire rupture process (???600 sec) of the great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake. Our estimate of the total seismic energy radiated by this earthquake is 1.4 ?? 1017 J. When we compare the corrected source spectrum for the entire earthquake to the source spectrum from the first ???250 sec of the rupture process (obtained from normal teleseismic windows), we find that the mainshock radiated much more seismic energy in the first half of the rupture process than in the second half, especially over the period range from 3 sec to 40 sec.

Comparative study of two tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Solomon Islands: 2015 Mw 7.0 normal-fault and 2013 Santa Cruz Mw 8.0 megathrust earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Harada, Tomoya; Satake, Kenji; Ishibe, Takeo; Gusman, Aditya Riadi

2016-05-01

The July 2015 Mw 7.0 Solomon Islands tsunamigenic earthquake occurred ~40 km north of the February 2013 Mw 8.0 Santa Cruz earthquake. The proximity of the two epicenters provided unique opportunities for a comparative study of their source mechanisms and tsunami generation. The 2013 earthquake was an interplate event having a thrust focal mechanism at a depth of 30 km while the 2015 event was a normal-fault earthquake occurring at a shallow depth of 10 km in the overriding Pacific Plate. A combined use of tsunami and teleseismic data from the 2015 event revealed the north dipping fault plane and a rupture velocity of 3.6 km/s. Stress transfer analysis revealed that the 2015 earthquake occurred in a region with increased Coulomb stress following the 2013 earthquake. Spectral deconvolution, assuming the 2015 tsunami as empirical Green's function, indicated the source periods of the 2013 Santa Cruz tsunami as 10 and 22 min.

Implications from palaeoseismological investigations at the Markgrafneusiedl Fault (Vienna Basin, Austria) for seismic hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hintersberger, Esther; Decker, Kurt; Lomax, Johanna; Lüthgens, Christopher

2018-02-01

Intraplate regions characterized by low rates of seismicity are challenging for seismic hazard assessment, mainly for two reasons. Firstly, evaluation of historic earthquake catalogues may not reveal all active faults that contribute to regional seismic hazard. Secondly, slip rate determination is limited by sparse geomorphic preservation of slowly moving faults. In the Vienna Basin (Austria), moderate historical seismicity (Imax, obs / Mmax, obs = 8/5.2) concentrates along the left-lateral strike-slip Vienna Basin Transfer Fault (VBTF). In contrast, several normal faults branching out from the VBTF show neither historical nor instrumental earthquake records, although geomorphological data indicate Quaternary displacement along those faults. Here, located about 15 km outside of Vienna, the Austrian capital, we present a palaeoseismological dataset of three trenches that cross one of these splay faults, the Markgrafneusiedl Fault (MF), in order to evaluate its seismic potential. Comparing the observations of the different trenches, we found evidence for five to six surface-breaking earthquakes during the last 120 kyr, with the youngest event occurring at around 14 ka. The derived surface displacements lead to magnitude estimates ranging between 6.2 ± 0.5 and 6.8 ± 0.4. Data can be interpreted by two possible slip models, with slip model 1 showing more regular recurrence intervals of about 20-25 kyr between the earthquakes with M ≥ 6.5 and slip model 2 indicating that such earthquakes cluster in two time intervals in the last 120 kyr. Direct correlation between trenches favours slip model 2 as the more plausible option. Trench observations also show that structural and sedimentological records of strong earthquakes with small surface offset have only low preservation potential. Therefore, the earthquake frequency for magnitudes between 6 and 6.5 cannot be constrained by the trenching records. Vertical slip rates of 0.02-0.05 mm a-1 derived from the trenches compare well to geomorphically derived slip rates of 0.02-0.09 mm a-1. Magnitude estimates from fault dimensions suggest that the largest earthquakes observed in the trenches activated the entire fault surface of the MF including the basal detachment that links the normal fault with the VBTF. The most important implications of these palaeoseismological results for seismic hazard assessment are as follows. (1) The MF is an active seismic source, capable of rupturing the surface despite the lack of historical earthquakes. (2) The MF is kinematically and geologically equivalent to a number of other splay faults of the VBTF. It is reasonable to assume that these faults are potential sources of large earthquakes as well. The frequency of strong earthquakes near Vienna is therefore expected to be significantly higher than the earthquake frequency reconstructed for the MF alone. (3) Although rare events, the potential for earthquake magnitudes equal or greater than M = 7.0 in the Vienna Basin should be considered in seismic hazard studies.

Fractal analysis of the spatial distribution of earthquakes along the Hellenic Subduction Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadakis, Giorgos; Vallianatos, Filippos; Sammonds, Peter

2014-05-01

The Hellenic Subduction Zone (HSZ) is the most seismically active region in Europe. Many destructive earthquakes have taken place along the HSZ in the past. The evolution of such active regions is expressed through seismicity and is characterized by complex phenomenology. The understanding of the tectonic evolution process and the physical state of subducting regimes is crucial in earthquake prediction. In recent years, there is a growing interest concerning an approach to seismicity based on the science of complex systems (Papadakis et al., 2013; Vallianatos et al., 2012). In this study we calculate the fractal dimension of the spatial distribution of earthquakes along the HSZ and we aim to understand the significance of the obtained values to the tectonic and geodynamic evolution of this area. We use the external seismic sources provided by Papaioannou and Papazachos (2000) to create a dataset regarding the subduction zone. According to the aforementioned authors, we define five seismic zones. Then, we structure an earthquake dataset which is based on the updated and extended earthquake catalogue for Greece and the adjacent areas by Makropoulos et al. (2012), covering the period 1976-2009. The fractal dimension of the spatial distribution of earthquakes is calculated for each seismic zone and for the HSZ as a unified system using the box-counting method (Turcotte, 1997; Robertson et al., 1995; Caneva and Smirnov, 2004). Moreover, the variation of the fractal dimension is demonstrated in different time windows. These spatiotemporal variations could be used as an additional index to inform us about the physical state of each seismic zone. As a precursor in earthquake forecasting, the use of the fractal dimension appears to be a very interesting future work. Acknowledgements Giorgos Papadakis wish to acknowledge the Greek State Scholarships Foundation (IKY). References Caneva, A., Smirnov, V., 2004. Using the fractal dimension of earthquake distributions and the slope of the recurrence curve to forecast earthquakes in Colombia. Earth Sci. Res. J., 8, 3-9. Makropoulos, K., Kaviris, G., Kouskouna, V., 2012. An updated and extended earthquake catalogue for Greece and adjacent areas since 1900. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1425-1430. Papadakis, G., Vallianatos, F., Sammonds, P., 2013. Evidence of non extensive statistical physics behavior of the Hellenic Subduction Zone seismicity. Tectonophysics, 608, 1037-1048. Papaioannou, C.A., Papazachos, B.C., 2000. Time-independent and time-dependent seismic hazard in Greece based on seismogenic sources. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 90, 22-33. Robertson, M.C., Sammis, C.G., Sahimi, M., Martin, A.J., 1995. Fractal analysis of three-dimensional spatial distributions of earthquakes with a percolation interpretation. J. Geophys. Res., 100, 609-620. Turcotte, D.L., 1997. Fractals and chaos in geology and geophysics. Second Edition, Cambridge University Press. Vallianatos, F., Michas, G., Papadakis, G., Sammonds, P., 2012. A non-extensive statistical physics view to the spatiotemporal properties of the June 1995, Aigion earthquake (M6.2) aftershock sequence (West Corinth rift, Greece). Acta Geophys., 60, 758-768.

Strong Motion Network of Medellín and Aburrá Valley: technical advances, seismicity records and micro-earthquake monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Posada, G.; Trujillo, J. C., Sr.; Hoyos, C.; Monsalve, G.

2017-12-01

The tectonics setting of Colombia is determined by the interaction of Nazca, Caribbean and South American plates, together with the Panama-Choco block collision, which makes a seismically active region. Regional seismic monitoring is carried out by the National Seismological Network of Colombia and the Accelerometer National Network of Colombia. Both networks calculate locations, magnitudes, depths and accelerations, and other seismic parameters. The Medellín - Aburra Valley is located in the Northern segment of the Central Cordillera of Colombia, and according to the Colombian technical seismic norm (NSR-10), is a region of intermediate hazard, because of the proximity to seismic sources of the Valley. Seismic monitoring in the Aburra Valley began in 1996 with an accelerometer network which consisted of 38 instruments. Currently, the network consists of 26 stations and is run by the Early Warning System of Medellin and Aburra Valley (SIATA). The technical advances have allowed the real-time communication since a year ago, currently with 10 stations; post-earthquake data is processed through operationally near-real-time, obtaining quick results in terms of location, acceleration, spectrum response and Fourier analysis; this information is displayed at the SIATA web site. The strong motion database is composed by 280 earthquakes; this information is the basis for the estimation of seismic hazards and risk for the region. A basic statistical analysis of the main information was carried out, including the total recorded events per station, natural frequency, maximum accelerations, depths and magnitudes, which allowed us to identify the main seismic sources, and some seismic site parameters. With the idea of a more complete seismic monitoring and in order to identify seismic sources beneath the Valley, we are in the process of installing 10 low-cost shake seismometers for micro-earthquake monitoring. There is no historical record of earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 3.5 beneath the Aburra Valley, and the neotectonic evidence are limited, so it is expected that this network helps to characterize the seismic hazards.

InSAR constraints on the kinematics and magnitude of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, D.; Bürgmann, R.

2005-12-01

The Mw 7.6 Bhuj intraplate event occurred along a blind thrust within the Kutch Rift basin of western India in January of 2001. The lack of any surface rupture and limited geodetic data have made it difficult to place the event on a known fault and constrain its source parameters. Moment tensor solutions and aftershock relocations indicate that the earthquake was a reverse event along an east-west striking, south dipping fault. In an effort to image the surface deformation, we have processed a total of 9 interferograms that span the coseismic event. Interferometry has proven difficult for the region because of technical difficulties experienced by the ERS Satellite around the time of the earthquake and because of low coherence. The stabilization of the orbital control by the European Space Agency beginning in 2002 has allowed us to interfere more recent SAR data with pre-earthquake data. Therefore, all available interferograms of the event include the first year of any postseismic deformation. The source region is characterized by broad floodplains interrupted by isolated highlands. Coherence is limited to the surrounding highlands and no data is available directly over the epicenter. Using the InSAR data along two descending and one ascending tracks, we perform a gridded search for the optimal source parameters of the earthquake. The deformation pattern is modeled assuming uniform slip on an elastic dislocation. Since the highland regions are discontinuous, the coherent InSAR phase is isolated to several individual patches. For each iteration of the gridded search algorithm, we optimize the fit to the data by solving for number of 2π phase cycles between coherent patches and the orbital gradient across each interferogram. Since the look angle varies across a SAR scene, a variable unit vector is calculated for each track. Inversion results place the center of the fault plane at 70.33° E/23.42° N at a depth of 21 km, and are consistent with the strike and dip suggested by the relocated aftershocks. The data also constrain the magnitude, rake, and finiteness of the event.

Insights into the Fault Geometry and Rupture History of the 2016 MW 7.8 Kaikoura, New Zealand, Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, M.; Ji, C.

2017-12-01

The November 14th 2016 MW 7.8 Kaikoura, New Zealand earthquake occurred along the east coast of the northern part of the South Island. The local tectonic setting is complicated. The central South Island is dominated by oblique continental convergence, whereas the southern part of this island experiences eastward subduction of the Australian plate. Available information (e.g., Hamling et al., 2017; Bradley et al., 2017) indicate that this earthquake involved multiple fault segments of the Marlborough fault system (MFS) as the rupture propagated northwards for more than 150 km. Additional slip might also occur on the subduction interface of the Pacific plate under the Australian plate, beneath the MFS. However, the exact number of involved fault segments as well as the temporal co-seismic rupture sequence has not been fully determined with geodetic and geological observations. Knowledge of the kinematics of complex fault interactions has important implications for our understanding of global seismic hazards, particularly to relatively unmodeled multisegment ruptures. Understanding the Kaikoura earthquake will provide insight into how one incorporates multi-fault ruptures in seismic-hazard models. We propose to apply a multiple double-couple inversion to determine the fault geometry and spatiotemporal rupture history using teleseismic and strong motion waveforms, before constraining the detailed slip history using both seismic and geodetic data. The Kaikoura earthquake will be approximated as the summation of multiple subevents—each represented as a double-couple point source, characterized by i) fault geometry (strike, dip and rake), ii) seismic moment, iii) centroid time, iv) half-duration and v) location (latitude, longitude and depth), a total of nine variables. We progressively increase the number of point sources until the additional source cannot produce significant improvement to the observations. Our preliminary results using only teleseismic data indicate that, broadly speaking, the sequence of fault planes dips towards the northwest and the motion of slip is largely to the northeast. Sequence and timing of the rupturing faults is still to be determined.

A new source process for evolving repetitious earthquakes at Ngauruhoe volcano, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jolly, A. D.; Neuberg, J.; Jousset, P.; Sherburn, S.

2012-02-01

Since early 2005, Ngauruhoe volcano has produced repeating low-frequency earthquakes with evolving waveforms and spectral features which become progressively enriched in higher frequency energy during the period 2005 to 2009, with the trend reversing after that time. The earthquakes also show a seasonal cycle since January 2006, with peak numbers of events occurring in the spring and summer period and lower numbers of events at other times. We explain these patterns by the excitation of a shallow two-phase water/gas or water/steam cavity having temporal variations in volume fraction of bubbles. Such variations in two-phase systems are known to produce a large range of acoustic velocities (2-300 m/s) and corresponding changes in impedance contrast. We suggest that an increasing bubble volume fraction is caused by progressive heating of melt water in the resonant cavity system which, in turn, promotes the scattering excitation of higher frequencies, explaining both spectral shift and seasonal dependence. We have conducted a constrained waveform inversion and grid search for moment, position and source geometry for the onset of two example earthquakes occurring 17 and 19 January 2008, a time when events showed a frequency enrichment episode occurring over a period of a few days. The inversion and associated error analysis, in conjunction with an earthquake phase analysis show that the two earthquakes represent an excitation of a single source position and geometry. The observed spectral changes from a stationary earthquake source and geometry suggest that an evolution in both near source resonance and scattering is occurring over periods from days to months.

Observational constraints on earthquake source scaling: Understanding the limits in resolution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hough, S.E.

1996-01-01

I examine the resolution of the type of stress drop estimates that have been used to place observational constraints on the scaling of earthquake source processes. I first show that apparent stress and Brune stress drop are equivalent to within a constant given any source spectral decay between ??1.5 and ??3 (i.e., any plausible value) and so consistent scaling is expected for the two estimates. I then discuss the resolution and scaling of Brune stress drop estimates, in the context of empirical Green's function results from recent earthquake sequences, including the 1992 Joshua Tree, California, mainshock and its aftershocks. I show that no definitive scaling of stress drop with moment is revealed over the moment range 1019-1025; within this sequence, however, there is a tendency for moderate-sized (M 4-5) events to be characterized by high stress drops. However, well-resolved results for recent M > 6 events are inconsistent with any extrapolated stress increase with moment for the aftershocks. Focusing on comer frequency estimates for smaller (M < 3.5) events, I show that resolution is extremely limited even after empirical Green's function deconvolutions. A fundamental limitation to resolution is the paucity of good signal-to-noise at frequencies above 60 Hz, a limitation that will affect nearly all surficial recordings of ground motion in California and many other regions. Thus, while the best available observational results support a constant stress drop for moderate-to large-sized events, very little robust observational evidence exists to constrain the quantities that bear most critically on our understanding of source processes: stress drop values and stress drop scaling for small events.

Observation of the seismic nucleation phase in the Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellsworth, W.L.; Beroza, G.C.

1998-01-01

Near-source observations of five M 3.8-5.2 earthquakes near Ridgecrest, California are consistent with the presence of a seismic nucleation phase. These earthquakes start abruptly, but then slow or stop before rapidly growing again toward their maximum rate of moment release. Deconvolution of instrument and path effects by empirical Green's functions demonstrates that the initial complexity at the start of the earthquake is a source effect. The rapid growth of the P-wave arrival at the start of the seismic nucleation phase supports the conclusion of Mori and Kanamori [1996] that these earthquakes begin without a magnitude-scaled slow initial phase of the type observed by Iio [1992, 1995].

The 2006 Java Earthquake revealed by the broadband seismograph network in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakano, M.; Kumagai, H.; Miyakawa, K.; Yamashina, T.; Inoue, H.; Ishida, M.; Aoi, S.; Morikawa, N.; Harjadi, P.

2006-12-01

On May 27, 2006, local time, a moderate-size earthquake (Mw=6.4) occurred in central Java. This earthquake caused severe damages near Yogyakarta City, and killed more than 5700 people. To estimate the source mechanism and location of this earthquake, we performed a waveform inversion of the broadband seismograms recorded by a nationwide seismic network in Indonesia (Realtime-JISNET). Realtime-JISNET is a part of the broadband seismograph network developed by an international cooperation among Indonesia, Germany, China, and Japan, aiming at improving the capabilities to monitor seismic activity and tsunami generation in Indonesia. 12 stations in Realitme-JISNET were in operation when the earthquake occurred. We used the three-component seismograms from the two closest stations, which were located about 100 and 300 km from the source. In our analysis, we assumed pure double couple as the source mechanism, thus reducing the number of free parameters in the waveform inversion. Therefore we could stably estimate the source mechanism using the signals observed by a small number of seismic stations. We carried out a grid search with respect to strike, dip, and rake angles to investigate fault orientation and slip direction. We determined source-time functions of the moment-tensor components in the frequency domain for each set of strike, dip, and rake angles. We also conducted a spatial grid search to find the best-fit source location. The best-fit source was approximately 12 km SSE of Yogyakarta at a depth of 10 km below sea level, immediately below the area of extensive damage. The focal mechanism indicates that this earthquake was caused by compressive stress in the NS direction and strike-slip motion was dominant. The moment magnitude (Mw) was 6.4. We estimated the seismic intensity in the areas of severe damage using the source paramters and an empirical attenuation relation for averaged peak ground velocity (PGV) of horizontal seismic motion. We then calculated the instrumental modified Mercalli intensity (Imm) from the estimated PGV values. Our result indicates that strong ground motion with Imm of 7 or more occurred within 10 km of the earthquake fault, although the actual seismic intensity can be affected by shallow structural heterogeneity. We therefore conclude that the severe damages of the Java earthquake are attributed to the strong ground motion, which was primarily caused by the source located immediately below the populated areas.

Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty seismic monitoring: 2012 USNAS report and recent explosions, earthquakes, and other seismic sources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Richards, Paul G.

A comprehensive ban on nuclear explosive testing is briefly characterized as an arms control initiative related to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The work of monitoring for nuclear explosions uses several technologies of which the most important is seismology-a physics discipline that draws upon extensive and ever-growing assets to monitor for earthquakes and other ground-motion phenomena as well as for explosions. This paper outlines the basic methods of seismic monitoring within that wider context, and lists web-based and other resources for learning details. It also summarizes the main conclusions, concerning capability to monitor for test-ban treaty compliance, contained in a major studymore » published in March 2012 by the US National Academy of Sciences.« less

Swarms of repeating long-period earthquakes at Shishaldin Volcano, Alaska, 2001-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Tanja

2007-01-01

During 2001–2004, a series of four periods of elevated long-period seismic activity, each lasting about 1–2 months, occurred at Shishaldin Volcano, Aleutian Islands, Alaska. The time periods are termed swarms of repeating events, reflecting an abundance of earthquakes with highly similar waveforms that indicate stable, non-destructive sources. These swarms are characterized by increased earthquake amplitudes, although the seismicity rate of one event every 0.5–5 min has remained more or less constant since Shishaldin last erupted in 1999. A method based on waveform cross-correlation is used to identify highly repetitive events, suggestive of spatially distinct source locations. The waveform analysis shows that several different families of similar events co-exist during a given swarm day, but generally only one large family dominates. A network of hydrothermal fractures may explain the events that do not belong to a dominant repeating event group, i.e. multiple sources at different locations exist next to a dominant source. The dominant waveforms exhibit systematic changes throughout each swarm, but some of these waveforms do reappear over the course of 4 years indicating repeatedly activated source locations. The choked flow model provides a plausible trigger mechanism for the repeating events observed at Shishaldin, explaining the gradual changes in waveforms over time by changes in pressure gradient across a constriction within the uppermost part of the conduit. The sustained generation of Shishaldin's long-period events may be attributed to complex dynamics of a multi-fractured hydrothermal system: the pressure gradient within the main conduit may be regulated by temporarily sealing and reopening of parallel flow pathways, by the amount of debris within the main conduit and/or by changing gas influx into the hydrothermal system. The observations suggest that Shishaldin's swarms of repeating events represent time periods during which a dominant source is activated.

OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH IN DISASTER RESTORATION ACTIVITY AFTER SOME MAJOR EARTHQUAKES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toyosawa, Yasuo; Itoh, Kazuya; Kikkawa, Naotaka

Occupational safety and health in disaster restoration activity following the Great Hanshin Earthquake (1995), Niigata Chuetsu Earthquake (2004), Niigata Chuetsu-oki Earthquake (2007) Great East Japan Earthquake (2011) were analyzed and characterized in order to raise awareness on the risks and hazards in such work. In this scenario, the predominant type of accident is a "fall" which increases mainly due to the fact that labourers are working to repair houses and buildings. On the other hand, landslides were prevalent in the Niigata Chuetsu Earthquake, resulting in more accidents occurring during geotechnical works rather than in buildings construction works. In the abnormal conditions that characterize recovery activities, when safety and health measures have a tendency to be neglected, it is important to reinstate adequate measures as soon as possible by carrying out the usial risk assessments.

Source mechanism inversion and ground motion modeling of induced earthquakes in Kuwait - A Bayesian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, C.; Toksoz, M. N.; Marzouk, Y.; Al-Enezi, A.; Al-Jeri, F.; Buyukozturk, O.

2016-12-01

The increasing seismic activity in the regions of oil/gas fields due to fluid injection/extraction and hydraulic fracturing has drawn new attention in both academia and industry. Source mechanism and triggering stress of these induced earthquakes are of great importance for understanding the physics of the seismic processes in reservoirs, and predicting ground motion in the vicinity of oil/gas fields. The induced seismicity data in our study are from Kuwait National Seismic Network (KNSN). Historically, Kuwait has low local seismicity; however, in recent years the KNSN has monitored more and more local earthquakes. Since 1997, the KNSN has recorded more than 1000 earthquakes (Mw < 5). In 2015, two local earthquakes - Mw4.5 in 03/21/2015 and Mw4.1 in 08/18/2015 - have been recorded by both the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) and KNSN, and widely felt by people in Kuwait. These earthquakes happen repeatedly in the same locations close to the oil/gas fields in Kuwait (see the uploaded image). The earthquakes are generally small (Mw < 5) and are shallow with focal depths of about 2 to 4 km. Such events are very common in oil/gas reservoirs all over the world, including North America, Europe, and the Middle East. We determined the location and source mechanism of these local earthquakes, with the uncertainties, using a Bayesian inversion method. The triggering stress of these earthquakes was calculated based on the source mechanisms results. In addition, we modeled the ground motion in Kuwait due to these local earthquakes. Our results show that most likely these local earthquakes occurred on pre-existing faults and were triggered by oil field activities. These events are generally smaller than Mw 5; however, these events, occurring in the reservoirs, are very shallow with focal depths less than about 4 km. As a result, in Kuwait, where oil fields are close to populated areas, these induced earthquakes could produce ground accelerations high enough to cause damage to local structures without using seismic design criteria.

PAGER-CAT: A composite earthquake catalog for calibrating global fatality models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, T.I.; Marano, K.D.; Earle, P.S.; Wald, D.J.

2009-01-01

We have described the compilation and contents of PAGER-CAT, an earthquake catalog developed principally for calibrating earthquake fatality models. It brings together information from a range of sources in a comprehensive, easy to use digital format. Earthquake source information (e.g., origin time, hypocenter, and magnitude) contained in PAGER-CAT has been used to develop an Atlas of Shake Maps of historical earthquakes (Allen et al. 2008) that can subsequently be used to estimate the population exposed to various levels of ground shaking (Wald et al. 2008). These measures will ultimately yield improved earthquake loss models employing the uniform hazard mapping methods of ShakeMap. Currently PAGER-CAT does not consistently contain indicators of landslide and liquefaction occurrence prior to 1973. In future PAGER-CAT releases we plan to better document the incidence of these secondary hazards. This information is contained in some existing global catalogs but is far from complete and often difficult to parse. Landslide and liquefaction hazards can be important factors contributing to earthquake losses (e.g., Marano et al. unpublished). Consequently, the absence of secondary hazard indicators in PAGER-CAT, particularly for events prior to 1973, could be misleading to sorne users concerned with ground-shaking-related losses. We have applied our best judgment in the selection of PAGER-CAT's preferred source parameters and earthquake effects. We acknowledge the creation of a composite catalog always requires subjective decisions, but we believe PAGER-CAT represents a significant step forward in bringing together the best available estimates of earthquake source parameters and reports of earthquake effects. All information considered in PAGER-CAT is stored as provided in its native catalog so that other users can modify PAGER preferred parameters based on their specific needs or opinions. As with all catalogs, the values of some parameters listed in PAGER-CAT are highly uncertain, particularly the casualty numbers, which must be regarded as estimates rather than firm numbers for many earthquakes. Consequently, we encourage contributions from the seismology and earthquake engineering communities to further improve this resource via the Wikipedia page and personal communications, for the benefit of the whole community.

Impact of cascadia subduction zone earthquake on the seismic evaluation criteria of bridges : technical report : SPR 770.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-12-01

A large magnitude long duration subduction earthquake is impending in the Pacific Northwest, which lies near the : Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ). Great subduction zone earthquakes are the largest earthquakes in the world and are the sole source : zo...

Aseismic blocks and destructive earthquakes in the Aegean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stiros, Stathis

2017-04-01

Aseismic areas are not identified only in vast, geologically stable regions, but also within regions of active, intense, distributed deformation such as the Aegean. In the latter, "aseismic blocks" about 200m wide were recognized in the 1990's on the basis of the absence of instrumentally-derived earthquake foci, in contrast to surrounding areas. This pattern was supported by the available historical seismicity data, as well as by geologic evidence. Interestingly, GPS evidence indicates that such blocks are among the areas characterized by small deformation rates relatively to surrounding areas of higher deformation. Still, the largest and most destructive earthquake of the 1990's, the 1995 M6.6 earthquake occurred at the center of one of these "aseismic" zones at the northern part of Greece, found unprotected against seismic hazard. This case was indeed a repeat of the case of the tsunami-associated 1956 Amorgos Island M7.4 earthquake, the largest 20th century event in the Aegean back-arc region: the 1956 earthquake occurred at the center of a geologically distinct region (Cyclades Massif in Central Aegean), till then assumed aseismic. Interestingly, after 1956, the overall idea of aseismic regions remained valid, though a "promontory" of earthquake prone-areas intruding into the aseismic central Aegean was assumed. Exploitation of the archaeological excavation evidence and careful, combined analysis of historical and archaeological data and other palaeoseismic, mostly coastal data, indicated that destructive and major earthquakes have left their traces in previously assumed aseismic blocks. In the latter earthquakes typically occur with relatively low recurrence intervals, >200-300 years, much smaller than in adjacent active areas. Interestingly, areas assumed a-seismic in antiquity are among the most active in the last centuries, while areas hit by major earthquakes in the past are usually classified as areas of low seismic risk in official maps. Some reasons for the apparent contrast between "aseismic" and seismic regions is the problem of the time scale in earthquake sampling, which is superimposed on the problem of earthquake memory within people, especially in changing cultures, and on the selective, "coded", privileged, even extravagant presentation of certain earthquakes by historical sources, troubling ancient, sub-modern and modern investigators and hence distorting the pattern of earthquake occurrence.

New approach to analysis of strongest earthquakes with upper-value magnitude in subduction zones and induced by them catastrophic tsunamis on examples of catastrophic events in 21 century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garagash, I. A.; Lobkovsky, L. I.; Mazova, R. Kh.

2012-04-01

The study of generation of strongest earthquakes with upper-value magnitude (near above 9) and induced by them catastrophic tsunamis, is performed by authors on the basis of new approach to the generation process, occurring in subduction zones under earthquake. The necessity of performing of such studies is connected with recent 11 March 2011 catastrophic underwater earthquake close to north-east Japan coastline and following it catastrophic tsunami which had led to vast victims and colossal damage for Japan. The essential importance in this study is determined by unexpected for all specialists the strength of earthquake occurred (determined by magnitude M = 9), inducing strongest tsunami with wave height runup on the beach up to 10 meters. The elaborated by us model of interaction of ocean lithosphere with island-arc blocks in subduction zones, with taking into account of incomplete stress discharge at realization of seismic process and further accumulation of elastic energy, permits to explain arising of strongest mega-earthquakes, such as catastrophic earthquake with source in Japan deep-sea trench in March, 2011. In our model, the wide possibility for numerical simulation of dynamical behaviour of underwater seismic source is provided by kinematical model of seismic source as well as by elaborated by authors numerical program for calculation of tsunami wave generation by dynamical and kinematical seismic sources. The method obtained permits take into account the contribution of residual tectonic stress in lithosphere plates, leading to increase of earthquake energy, which is usually not taken into account up to date.

Coseismic source model of the 2003 Mw 6.8 Chengkung earthquake, Taiwan, determined from GPS measurements

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ching, K.-E.; Rau, R.-J.; Zeng, Y.

2007-01-01

A coseismic source model of the 2003 Mw 6.8 Chengkung, Taiwan, earthquake was well determined with 213 GPS stations, providing a unique opportunity to study the characteristics of coseismic displacements of a high-angle buried reverse fault. Horizontal coseismic displacements show fault-normal shortening across the fault trace. Displacements on the hanging wall reveal fault-parallel and fault-normal lengthening. The largest horizontal and vertical GPS displacements reached 153 and 302 mm, respectively, in the middle part of the network. Fault geometry and slip distribution were determined by inverting GPS data using a three-dimensional (3-D) layered-elastic dislocation model. The slip is mainly concentrated within a 44 ?? 14 km slip patch centered at 15 km depth with peak amplitude of 126.6 cm. Results from 3-D forward-elastic model tests indicate that the dome-shaped folding on the hanging wall is reproduced with fault dips greater than 40??. Compared with the rupture area and average slip from slow slip earthquakes and a compilation of finite source models of 18 earthquakes, the Chengkung earthquake generated a larger rupture area and a lower stress drop, suggesting lower than average friction. Hence the Chengkung earthquake seems to be a transitional example between regular and slow slip earthquakes. The coseismic source model of this event indicates that the Chihshang fault is divided into a creeping segment in the north and the locked segment in the south. An average recurrence interval of 50 years for a magnitude 6.8 earthquake was estimated for the southern fault segment. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Spatial and Temporal Stress Drop Variations of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyake, H.

2013-12-01

The 2011 Tohoku earthquake sequence consists of foreshocks, mainshock, aftershocks, and repeating earthquakes. To quantify spatial and temporal stress drop variations is important for understanding M9-class megathrust earthquakes. Variability and spatial and temporal pattern of stress drop is a basic information for rupture dynamics as well as useful to source modeling. As pointed in the ground motion prediction equations by Campbell and Bozorgnia [2008, Earthquake Spectra], mainshock-aftershock pairs often provide significant decrease of stress drop. We here focus strong motion records before and after the Tohoku earthquake, and analyze source spectral ratios considering azimuth- and distance dependency [Miyake et al., 2001, GRL]. Due to the limitation of station locations on land, spatial and temporal stress drop variations are estimated by adjusting shifts from the omega-squared source spectral model. The adjustment is based on the stochastic Green's function simulations of source spectra considering azimuth- and distance dependency. We assumed the same Green's functions for event pairs for each station, both the propagation path and site amplification effects are cancelled out. Precise studies of spatial and temporal stress drop variations have been performed [e.g., Allmann and Shearer, 2007, JGR], this study targets the relations between stress drop vs. progression of slow slip prior to the Tohoku earthquake by Kato et al. [2012, Science] and plate structures. Acknowledgement: This study is partly supported by ERI Joint Research (2013-B-05). We used the JMA unified earthquake catalogue and K-NET, KiK-net, and F-net data provided by NIED.

A Poisson method application to the assessment of the earthquake hazard in the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Türker, Tuğba, E-mail: tturker@ktu.edu.tr; Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: ybayrak@agri.edu.tr

North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is one from the most important strike-slip fault zones in the world and located among regions in the highest seismic activity. The NAFZ observed very large earthquakes from the past to present. The aim of this study; the important parameters of Gutenberg-Richter relationship (a and b values) estimated and this parameters taking into account, earthquakes were examined in the between years 1900-2015 for 10 different seismic source regions in the NAFZ. After that estimated occurrence probabilities and return periods of occurring earthquakes in fault zone in the next years, and is being assessed with Poisson methodmore » the earthquake hazard of the NAFZ. The Region 2 were observed the largest earthquakes for the only historical period and hasn’t been observed large earthquake for the instrumental period in this region. Two historical earthquakes (1766, M{sub S}=7.3 and 1897, M{sub S}=7.0) are included for Region 2 (Marmara Region) where a large earthquake is expected in the next years. The 10 different seismic source regions are determined the relationships between the cumulative number-magnitude which estimated a and b parameters with the equation of LogN=a-bM in the Gutenberg-Richter. A homogenous earthquake catalog for M{sub S} magnitude which is equal or larger than 4.0 is used for the time period between 1900 and 2015. The database of catalog used in the study has been created from International Seismological Center (ISC) and Boğazici University Kandilli observation and earthquake research institute (KOERI). The earthquake data were obtained until from 1900 to 1974 from KOERI and ISC until from 1974 to 2015 from KOERI. The probabilities of the earthquake occurring are estimated for the next 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 and 100 years in the 10 different seismic source regions. The highest earthquake occur probabilities in 10 different seismic source regions in the next years estimated that the region Tokat-Erzincan (Region 9) %99 with an earthquake occur probability for magnitude 6.5 which the return period 24.7 year, %92 with an earthquake occur probability for magnitude 7 which the return period 39.1 year, %80 with an earthquake occur probability for magnitude 7.5 which the return period 62.1 year, %64 with an earthquake occur probability for magnitude 8 which the return period 98.5 year. For the Marmara Region (Region 2) in the next 100 year estimated that %89 with an earthquake occur probability for magnitude 6 which the return period 44.9 year, %45 with an earthquake occur probability for magnitude 6.5 which the return period 87 year, %45 with an earthquake occur probability for magnitude 7 which the return period 168.6 year.« less

Constraining the source location of the 30 May 2015 (Mw 7.9) Bonin deep-focus earthquake using seismogram envelopes of high-frequency P waveforms: Occurrence of deep-focus earthquake at the bottom of a subducting slab

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takemura, Shunsuke; Maeda, Takuto; Furumura, Takashi; Obara, Kazushige

2016-05-01

In this study, the source location of the 30 May 2015 (Mw 7.9) deep-focus Bonin earthquake was constrained using P wave seismograms recorded across Japan. We focus on propagation characteristics of high-frequency P wave. Deep-focus intraslab earthquakes typically show spindle-shaped seismogram envelopes with peak delays of several seconds and subsequent long-duration coda waves; however, both the main shock and aftershock of the 2015 Bonin event exhibited pulse-like P wave propagations with high apparent velocities (~12.2 km/s). Such P wave propagation features were reproduced by finite-difference method simulations of seismic wave propagation in the case of slab-bottom source. The pulse-like P wave seismogram envelopes observed from the 2015 Bonin earthquake show that its source was located at the bottom of the Pacific slab at a depth of ~680 km, rather than within its middle or upper regions.

High-frequency seismic energy radiation from the 2003 Miyagi-Oki, JAPAN, earthquake (M7.0) as revealed from an envelope inversion analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakahara, H.

2003-12-01

The 2003 Miyagi-Oki earthquake (M 7.0) took place on May 26, 2003 in the subducting Pacific plate beneath northeastern Japan. The focal depth is around 70km. The focal mechanism is reverse type on a fault plane dipping to the west with a high angle. There was no fatality, fortunately. However, this earthquake caused more than 100 injures, 2000 collapsed houses, and so on. To the south of this focal area by about 50km, an interplate earthquake of M7.5, the Miyagi-Ken-Oki earthquake, is expected to occur in the near future. So the relation between this earthquake and the expected Miyagi-Ken-Oki earthquake attracts public attention. Seismic-energy distribution on earthquake fault planes estimated by envelope inversion analyses can contribute to better understanding of the earthquake source process. For moderate to large earthquakes, seismic energy in frequencies higher than 1 Hz is sometimes much larger than a level expected from the omega-squared model with source parameters estimated by lower-frequency analyses. Therefore, an accurate estimation of seismic energy in such high frequencies has significant importance on estimation of dynamic source parameters such as the seismic energy or the apparent stress. In this study, we execute an envelope inversion analysis based on the method by Nakahara et al. (1998) and clarify the spatial distribution of high-frequency seismic energy radiation on the fault plane of this earthquake. We use three-component sum of mean squared velocity seismograms multiplied by a density of earth medium, which is called envelopes here, for the envelope inversion analysis. Four frequency bands of 1-2, 2-4, 4-8, and 8-16 Hz are adopted. We use envelopes in the time window from the onset of S waves to the lapse time of 51.2 sec. Green functions of envelopes representing the energy propagation process through a scattering medium are calculated based on the radiative transfer theory, which are characterized by parameters of scattering attenuation and intrinsic absorption. We use the values obtained for the northeastern Japan (Sakurai, 1995). We assume the fault plane as follows: strike=193,a, dip=69,a, rake=87,a, length=30km, width=25km with referrence to a waveform inversion analysis in low-frequencies (e.g. Yagi, 2003). We divide this fault plane into 25 subfaults, each of which is a 5km x 5km square. Rupture velocity is assumed to be constant. Seismic energy is radiated from a point source as soon as the rupture front passes the center of each subfault. Time function of energy radiation is assumed as a box-car function. The amount of seismic energy from all the subfaults and site amplification factors for all the stations are estimated by the envelope inversion method. Rupture velocity and the duration time of a box-car function should be estimated by a grid search. Theoretical envelopes calculated with best-fit parameters generally fit to observed ones. The rupture velocity and duration time were estimated as 3.8 km/s and 1.6 sec, respectively. The high-frequency seismic energy was found to be radiated mainly from two spots on the fault plane: The first one is around the initial rupture point and the second is the northern part of the fault plane. These two spots correspond to observed two peaks on envelopes. Amount of seismic energy increases with increasing frequency in the 1-16Hz band, which contradicts an expectation from the omega-squared model. Therefore, stronger radiation of higher-frequency seismic energy is a prominent character of this earthquake. Acknowledgements: We used strong-motion seismograms recorded by the K-NET and KiK-net of NIED, JAPAN.

Approaching the potential seismogenic source of the 8 September 1905 earthquake: New geophysical, geological and biochemical data from the S. Eufemia Gulf (S Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loreto, Maria Filomena; Fracassi, Umberto; Franzo, Annalisa; Del Negro, Paola; Zgur, Fabrizio; Facchin, Lorenzo

2013-04-01

The earthquake that occurred on 8 September 1905 is one of the strongest events that ever affected western Calabria. This event caused 557 casualties, more than 2000 injured, and left about 300,000 people homeless. The mainshock was followed by a feeble tsunami and hundreds of aftershocks. During the last 15 years, various authors proposed hypotheses for a seismogenic source causative of the 1905 earthquake, apparently diverse and without an unequivocal solution. To study the active tectonics of the region and to gain insight into a potential seismogenic source responsible for the 1905 event, we carried out a well-targeted multidisciplinary survey within the Gulf of S. Eufemia (summer 2010) in the frame of the ISTEGE project, using the R/V OGS-Explora. The acquired dataset consists of geophysical data, oceanographical measurements, and biological, chemical and sedimentary samples. The analysis of the geophysical data (330 km of MultiChannel Seismic, 2223 km of sub-bottom Chirp profiles, and 2231 km2 of high resolution morpho-bathymetric data) allowed the identification of some main morpho-structural features characterizing the sedimentary basin hosted within the S. Eufemia Gulf. The three main tectonic structures shaping the basin and its sedimentary bodies are: 1) an E-dipping large normal fault, N31° oriented; 2) a WNW-trending polyphased fault system; and 3) a likely E-W trending fault with dip-slip motion. Among these, the large normal fault shows evidence of activity, as witnessed by the deformed recent sediments, and by the lineament due to consistent seabed rupture observed on the seafloor along which, locally, fluids leakage occurs. Finally, evidence of probable geothermal activity is reflected by the anomalous distribution of prokaryotic abundance and biopolymeric C content, whereas no such evidence comes from water temperature analysis (CTD measurements). The various seismogenic sources proposed in the literature make up a composite framework of this sector of western Calabria, and can be reviewed a) in the light of the geological evidence arising from the newly acquired multidisciplinary dataset and b) against regional seismotectonic models - with surprising results. Re-appraising such a major historical earthquakes as the 1905 one located within poorly explored submarine areas, promisingly enhances the seismotectonic picture of western Calabria. A comprehensive understanding of the region and robust constraining of the seismogenic source of the 1905 earthquake may arise from an integrated interpretation of our data together with a) on-land field evidence and b) seismological modeling.

Earthquake-origin expansion of the Earth inferred from a spherical-Earth elastic dislocation theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Changyi; Sun, Wenke

2014-12-01

In this paper, we propose an approach to compute the coseismic Earth's volume change based on a spherical-Earth elastic dislocation theory. We present a general expression of the Earth's volume change for three typical dislocations: the shear, tensile and explosion sources. We conduct a case study for the 2004 Sumatra earthquake (Mw9.3), the 2010 Chile earthquake (Mw8.8), the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Mw9.0) and the 2013 Okhotsk Sea earthquake (Mw8.3). The results show that mega-thrust earthquakes make the Earth expand and earthquakes along a normal fault make the Earth contract. We compare the volume changes computed for finite fault models and a point source of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Mw9.0). The big difference of the results indicates that the coseismic changes in the Earth's volume (or the mean radius) are strongly dependent on the earthquakes' focal mechanism, especially the depth and the dip angle. Then we estimate the cumulative volume changes by historical earthquakes (Mw ≥ 7.0) since 1960, and obtain an Earth mean radius expanding rate about 0.011 mm yr-1.

A decade of induced slip on the causative fault of the 2015 Mw 4.0 Venus earthquake, northeast Johnson County, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scales, Monique M.; DeShon, Heather R.; Magnani, M. Beatrice; Walter, Jacob I.; Quinones, Louis; Pratt, Thomas L.; Hornbach, Matthew J.

2017-01-01

On 7 May 2015, a Mw 4.0 earthquake occurred near Venus, northeast Johnson County, Texas, in an area of the Bend Arch-Fort Worth Basin that reports long-term, high-volume wastewater disposal and that has hosted felt earthquakes since 2009. In the weeks following the Mw 4.0 earthquake, we deployed a local seismic network and purchased nearby active-source seismic reflection data to capture additional events, characterize the causative fault, and explore potential links between ongoing industry activity and seismicity. Hypocenter relocations of the resulting local earthquake catalog span ~4–6 km depth and indicate a fault striking ~230°, dipping to the west, consistent with a nodal plane of the Mw 4.0 regional moment tensor. Fault plane solutions indicate normal faulting, with B axes striking parallel to maximum horizontal compressive stress. Seismic reflection data image the reactivated basement fault penetrating the Ordovician disposal layer and Mississippian production layer, but not displacing post-Lower Pennsylvanian units. Template matching at regional seismic stations indicates that low-magnitude earthquakes with similar waveforms began in April 2008, with increasing magnitude over time. Pressure data from five saltwater disposal wells within 5 km of the active fault indicate a disposal formation that is 0.9–4.8 MPa above hydrostatic. We suggest that the injection of 28,000,000 m3 of wastewater between 2006 and 2015 at these wells led to an increase in subsurface pore fluid pressure that contributed to inducing this long-lived earthquake sequence. The 2015 Mw 4.0 event represents the largest event in the continuing evolution of slip on the causative fault.

A Decade of Induced Slip on the Causative Fault of the 2015 Mw 4.0 Venus Earthquake, Northeast Johnson County, Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scales, Monique M.; DeShon, Heather R.; Magnani, M. Beatrice; Walter, Jacob I.; Quinones, Louis; Pratt, Thomas L.; Hornbach, Matthew J.

2017-10-01

On 7 May 2015, a Mw 4.0 earthquake occurred near Venus, northeast Johnson County, Texas, in an area of the Bend Arch-Fort Worth Basin that reports long-term, high-volume wastewater disposal and that has hosted felt earthquakes since 2009. In the weeks following the Mw 4.0 earthquake, we deployed a local seismic network and purchased nearby active-source seismic reflection data to capture additional events, characterize the causative fault, and explore potential links between ongoing industry activity and seismicity. Hypocenter relocations of the resulting local earthquake catalog span 4-6 km depth and indicate a fault striking 230°, dipping to the west, consistent with a nodal plane of the Mw 4.0 regional moment tensor. Fault plane solutions indicate normal faulting, with B axes striking parallel to maximum horizontal compressive stress. Seismic reflection data image the reactivated basement fault penetrating the Ordovician disposal layer and Mississippian production layer, but not displacing post-Lower Pennsylvanian units. Template matching at regional seismic stations indicates that low-magnitude earthquakes with similar waveforms began in April 2008, with increasing magnitude over time. Pressure data from five saltwater disposal wells within 5 km of the active fault indicate a disposal formation that is 0.9-4.8 MPa above hydrostatic. We suggest that the injection of 28,000,000 m3 of wastewater between 2006 and 2015 at these wells led to an increase in subsurface pore fluid pressure that contributed to inducing this long-lived earthquake sequence. The 2015 Mw 4.0 event represents the largest event in the continuing evolution of slip on the causative fault.

Detecting Batholithic Structures That Influence Seismogenic Processes in the North Chile Seismic Gap With Seismological and Gravity Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobiesiak, M.; Schaller, T.; Götze, H. J.; Gutknecht, B. D.

2016-12-01

Ever since the occurrence of the last M9 event in 1877 defining the North Chile Seismic Gap, a great earthquake of M≥9 has been expected to happen. Still, this great event has not yet taken place. Instead, the entire area was repeatedly ruptured through major earthquakes like the 2007 Mw 7.9 Tocopilla earthquake and the 2014 Pisagua/ Iquique earthquake sequence of Mw 8.3 and Mw 7.6, leaving large parts of the North Chile Seismic Gap undisturbed. The question remains if the remaining parts will rupture in a relatively small event or if a large event rupturing the entire gap will occur.To answer this question, we study the interplay between geological structure, tectonic setting and the stress/ strain fields, which result in the observed patterns of past seismic events in this area. We will show results of a pilot study of the 1995 Mw 8.1 Antofagasta earthquake occurring directly adjacent to the North Chile Seismic Gap as well as a case study of the area around the Pisagua/ Iquique earthquake sequence using seismological data (b-value map, source time function, moment release), the gravity isostatic residual anomaly field, vertical stress load and subsurface density modeling. These studies show a strong spatial correlation between the seismological parameters characterizing these earthquakes and the distribution of maxima and minima of the gravity isostatic residual and corresponding stress anomaly fields. Thus, we postulate a common cause being high density bodies situated in the crust of the South American plate. This theory is supported by gravity inferred density modeling and surface geology.

Very low frequency earthquakes in Tohoku-Oki recorded by short-period ocean bottom seismographs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, H.; Hino, R.; Ohta, Y.; Uchida, N.; Suzuki, S.; Shinohara, M.; Nakatani, Y.; Matsuzawa, T.

2017-12-01

Various kind of slow earthquakes have been found along many plate boundary zones in the world (Obara, and Kato, 2016). In the Tohoku subduction zone where slow event activities have been considered insignificant, slow slip events associated with low frequency tremors were identified prior to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake based on seafloor geodetic and seismographical observations. Recently very low frequency earthquakes (VLFEs) have been discovered by inspecting onshore broad-band seismograms. Although the activity of the detected VLFEs is low and the VLFEs occurred in the limited area, VLFEs tends to occur successively in a short time period. In this study, we try to characterize the VLFEs along the Japan Trench based on the seismograms obtained by the instruments deployed near the estimated epicenters.Temporary seismic observations using Ocean Bottom Seismometers (OBSs) have been carried out several times after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, and several VLFE activities were observed during the deployments of the OBSs. Amplitudes of horizontal component seismograms of the OBSs grow shortly after the estimated origin times of the VLFEs identified by the onshore seismograms, even though the sensors are 4.5 Hz geophones. It is difficult to recognize evident onsets of P or S waves, correspondence between order of arrivals of discernible wave packets and their amplitudes suggests that these wave packets are seismic signals radiated from the VLFE sources. The OBSs detect regular local earthquakes of the similar magnitudes as the VLFEs. Signal powers of the possible VLFE seismograms are comparable to the regular earthquakes in the frequency range < 1 Hz, while significant deficiency of higher frequency components are observed.

Tsunami runup and tide-gauge observations from the 14 November 2016 M7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Power, William; Clark, Kate; King, Darren N.; Borrero, Jose; Howarth, Jamie; Lane, Emily M.; Goring, Derek; Goff, James; Chagué-Goff, Catherine; Williams, James; Reid, Catherine; Whittaker, Colin; Mueller, Christof; Williams, Shaun; Hughes, Matthew W.; Hoyle, Jo; Bind, Jochen; Strong, Delia; Litchfield, Nicola; Benson, Adrian

2017-07-01

The 2016 M w 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake was one of the largest earthquakes in New Zealand's historical record, and it generated the most significant local source tsunami to affect New Zealand since 1947. There are many unusual features of this earthquake from a tsunami perspective: the epicentre was well inland of the coast, multiple faults were involved in the rupture, and the greatest tsunami damage to residential property was far from the source. In this paper, we summarise the tectonic setting and the historical and geological evidence for past tsunamis on this coast, then present tsunami tide gauge and runup field observations of the tsunami that followed the Kaikōura earthquake. For the size of the tsunami, as inferred from the measured heights, the impact of this event was relatively modest, and we discuss the reasons for this which include: the state of the tide at the time of the earthquake, the degree of co-seismic uplift, and the nature of the coastal environment in the tsunami source region.

Large Historical Earthquakes and Tsunami Hazards in the Western Mediterranean: Source Characteristics and Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harbi, Assia; Meghraoui, Mustapha; Belabbes, Samir; Maouche, Said

2010-05-01

The western Mediterranean region was the site of numerous large earthquakes in the past. Most of these earthquakes are located at the East-West trending Africa-Eurasia plate boundary and along the coastline of North Africa. The most recent recorded tsunamigenic earthquake occurred in 2003 at Zemmouri-Boumerdes (Mw 6.8) and generated ~ 2-m-high tsunami wave. The destructive wave affected the Balearic Islands and Almeria in southern Spain and Carloforte in southern Sardinia (Italy). The earthquake provided a unique opportunity to gather instrumental records of seismic waves and tide gauges in the western Mediterranean. A database that includes a historical catalogue of main events, seismic sources and related fault parameters was prepared in order to assess the tsunami hazard of this region. In addition to the analysis of the 2003 records, we study the 1790 Oran and 1856 Jijel historical tsunamigenic earthquakes (Io = IX and X, respectively) that provide detailed observations on the heights and extension of past tsunamis and damage in coastal zones. We performed the modelling of wave propagation using NAMI-DANCE code and tested different fault sources from synthetic tide gauges. We observe that the characteristics of seismic sources control the size and directivity of tsunami wave propagation on both northern and southern coasts of the western Mediterranean.

Earthquake Hoax in Ghana: Exploration of the Cry Wolf Hypothesis

PubMed Central

Aikins, Moses; Binka, Fred

2012-01-01

This paper investigated the belief of the news of impending earthquake from any source in the context of the Cry Wolf hypothesis as well as the belief of the news of any other imminent disaster from any source. We were also interested in the correlation between preparedness, risk perception and antecedents. This explorative study consisted of interviews, literature and Internet reviews. Sampling was of a simple random nature. Stratification was carried out by sex and residence type. The sample size of (N=400), consisted of 195 males and 205 Females. Further stratification was based on residential classification used by the municipalities. The study revealed that a person would believe news of an impending earthquake from any source, (64.4%) and a model significance of (P=0.000). It also showed that a person would believe news of any other impending disaster from any source, (73.1%) and a significance of (P=0.003). There is association between background, risk perception and preparedness. Emergency preparedness is weak. Earthquake awareness needs to be re-enforced. There is a critical need for public education of earthquake preparedness. The authors recommend developing emergency response program for earthquakes, standard operating procedures for a national risk communication through all media including instant bulk messaging. PMID:28299086

GPS-derived Coseismic deformations of the 2016 Aktao Ms6.7 earthquake and source modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Zhao, B.; Xiaoqiang, W.; Daiqing, L.; Yushan, A.

2017-12-01

On 25th November 2016, a Ms6.7 earthquake occurred on Aktao, a county of Xinjiang, China. This earthquake was the largest earthquake occurred in the northeastern margin of the Pamir Plateau in the last 30 years. By GPS observation, we get the coseismic displacement of this earthquake. The maximum displacement site is located in the Muji Basin, 15km from south of the causative fault. The maximum deformation is down to 0.12m, and 0.10m for coseismic displacement, our results indicate that the earthquake has the characteristics of dextral strike-slip and normal-fault rupture. Based on the GPS results, we inverse the rupture distribution of the earthquake. The source model is consisted of two approximate independent zones with a depth of less than 20km, the maximum displacement of one zone is 0.6m, the other is 0.4m. The total seismic moment is Mw6.6.1 which is calculated by the geodetic inversion. The source model of GPS-derived is basically consistent with that of seismic waveform inversion, and is consistent with the surface rupture distribution obtained from field investigation. According to our inversion calculation, the recurrence period of strong earthquakes similar to this earthquake should be 30 60 years, and the seismic risk of the eastern segment of Muji fault is worthy of attention. This research is financially supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.41374030)

Strong Ground Motion Generation during the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asano, K.; Iwata, T.

2011-12-01

Strong ground motions during the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Mw9.0) were densely observed by the strong motion observation networks all over Japan. Seeing the acceleration and velocity waveforms observed at strong stations in northeast Japan along the source region, those ground motions are characterized by plural wave packets with duration of about twenty seconds. Particularly, two wave packets separated by about fifty seconds could be found on the records in the northern part of the damaged area, whereas only one significant wave packets could be recognized on the records in the southern part of the damaged area. The record section shows four isolated wave packets propagating from different locations to north and south, and it gives us a hint of the strong motion generation process on the source fault which is related to the heterogeneous rupture process in the scale of tens of kilometers. In order to solve it, we assume that each isolated wave packet is contributed by the corresponding strong motion generation area (SMGA). It is a source patch whose slip velocity is larger than off the area (Miyake et al., 2003). That is, the source model of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake consists of four SMGAs. The SMGA source model has succeeded in reproducing broadband strong ground motions for past subduction-zone events (e.g., Suzuki and Iwata, 2007). The target frequency range is set to be 0.1-10 Hz in this study as this range is significantly related to seismic damage generation to general man-made structures. First, we identified the rupture starting points of each SMGA by picking up the onset of individual packets. The source fault plane is set following the GCMT solution. The first two SMGAs were located approximately 70 km and 30 km west of the hypocenter. The third and forth SMGAs were located approximately 160 km and 230 km southwest of the hypocenter. Then, the model parameters (size, rise time, stress drop, rupture velocity, rupture propagation pattern) of these four SMGAs were determined by waveform modeling using the empirical Green's function method (Irikura, 1986). The first and second SMGAs are located close to each other, and they are partially overlapped though the difference in the rupture time between them is more than 40 s. Those two SMGA appear to be included in the source region of the past repeating Miyagi-Oki subduction-zone event in 1936. The third and fourth SMGAs appear to be located in the source region of the past Fukushima-Oki events in 1938. Each of Those regions has been expected to cause next major earthquakes in the long-term evaluation. The obtained source model explains the acceleration, velocity, and displacement time histories in the target frequency range at most stations well. All of four SMGAs exist apparently outside of the large slip area along the trench east of the hypocenter, which was estimated by the seismic, geodetic, and tsunami inversion analyses, and this large slip zone near the trench does not contribute to strong motion much. At this point, we can conclude that the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake has a possibility to be a complex event rupturing multiple preexisting asperities in terms of strong ground motion generation. It should be helpful to validate and improve the applicability of the strong motion prediction recipe for great subduction-zone earthquakes.

Generalized statistical mechanics approaches to earthquakes and tectonics.

PubMed

Vallianatos, Filippos; Papadakis, Giorgos; Michas, Georgios

2016-12-01

Despite the extreme complexity that characterizes the mechanism of the earthquake generation process, simple empirical scaling relations apply to the collective properties of earthquakes and faults in a variety of tectonic environments and scales. The physical characterization of those properties and the scaling relations that describe them attract a wide scientific interest and are incorporated in the probabilistic forecasting of seismicity in local, regional and planetary scales. Considerable progress has been made in the analysis of the statistical mechanics of earthquakes, which, based on the principle of entropy, can provide a physical rationale to the macroscopic properties frequently observed. The scale-invariant properties, the (multi) fractal structures and the long-range interactions that have been found to characterize fault and earthquake populations have recently led to the consideration of non-extensive statistical mechanics (NESM) as a consistent statistical mechanics framework for the description of seismicity. The consistency between NESM and observations has been demonstrated in a series of publications on seismicity, faulting, rock physics and other fields of geosciences. The aim of this review is to present in a concise manner the fundamental macroscopic properties of earthquakes and faulting and how these can be derived by using the notions of statistical mechanics and NESM, providing further insights into earthquake physics and fault growth processes.

Generalized statistical mechanics approaches to earthquakes and tectonics

PubMed Central

Papadakis, Giorgos; Michas, Georgios

2016-01-01

Despite the extreme complexity that characterizes the mechanism of the earthquake generation process, simple empirical scaling relations apply to the collective properties of earthquakes and faults in a variety of tectonic environments and scales. The physical characterization of those properties and the scaling relations that describe them attract a wide scientific interest and are incorporated in the probabilistic forecasting of seismicity in local, regional and planetary scales. Considerable progress has been made in the analysis of the statistical mechanics of earthquakes, which, based on the principle of entropy, can provide a physical rationale to the macroscopic properties frequently observed. The scale-invariant properties, the (multi) fractal structures and the long-range interactions that have been found to characterize fault and earthquake populations have recently led to the consideration of non-extensive statistical mechanics (NESM) as a consistent statistical mechanics framework for the description of seismicity. The consistency between NESM and observations has been demonstrated in a series of publications on seismicity, faulting, rock physics and other fields of geosciences. The aim of this review is to present in a concise manner the fundamental macroscopic properties of earthquakes and faulting and how these can be derived by using the notions of statistical mechanics and NESM, providing further insights into earthquake physics and fault growth processes. PMID:28119548

New Frontiers in Characterization of Sub-Catalog Microseismicity: Utilizing Inter-Event Waveform Cross Correlation for Estimating Precise Locations, Magnitudes, and Focal Mechanisms of Tiny Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellsworth, W. L.; Shelly, D. R.; Hardebeck, J.; Hill, D. P.

2017-12-01

Microseismicity often conveys the most direct information about active processes in the earth's subsurface. However, routine network processing typically leaves most earthquakes uncharacterized. These "sub-catalog" events can provide critical clues to ongoing processes in the source region. To address this issue, we have developed waveform-based processing that leverages the existing routine catalog of earthquakes to detect and characterize "sub-catalog" events (those absent in routine catalogs). By correlating waveforms of cataloged events with the continuous data stream, we 1) identify events with similar waveform signatures in the continuous data across multiple stations, 2) precisely measure relative time lags across these stations for both P- and S-wave time windows, and 3) estimate the relative polarity between events by the sign of the peak absolute value correlations and its height above the secondary peak. When combined, these inter-event comparisons yield robust measurements, which enable sensitive event detection, relative relocation, and relative magnitude estimation. The most recent addition, focal mechanisms derived from correlation-based relative polarities, addresses a significant shortcoming in microseismicity analyses (see Shelly et al., JGR, 2016). Depending on the application, we can characterize 2-10 times as many events as included in the initial catalog. This technique is particularly well suited for compact zones of active seismicity such as seismic swarms. Application to a 2014 swarm in Long Valley Caldera, California, illuminates complex patterns of faulting that would have otherwise remained obscured. The prevalence of such features in other environments remains an important, as yet unresolved, question.

Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Earthquake Dynamics: Case Study of the Mw 8.3 Illapel Earthquake, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jiuxun; Denolle, Marine A.; Yao, Huajian

2018-01-01

We develop a methodology that combines compressive sensing backprojection (CS-BP) and source spectral analysis of teleseismic P waves to provide metrics relevant to earthquake dynamics of large events. We improve the CS-BP method by an autoadaptive source grid refinement as well as a reference source adjustment technique to gain better spatial and temporal resolution of the locations of the radiated bursts. We also use a two-step source spectral analysis based on (i) simple theoretical Green's functions that include depth phases and water reverberations and on (ii) empirical P wave Green's functions. Furthermore, we propose a source spectrogram methodology that provides the temporal evolution of dynamic parameters such as radiated energy and falloff rates. Bridging backprojection and spectrogram analysis provides a spatial and temporal evolution of these dynamic source parameters. We apply our technique to the recent 2015 Mw 8.3 megathrust Illapel earthquake (Chile). The results from both techniques are consistent and reveal a depth-varying seismic radiation that is also found in other megathrust earthquakes. The low-frequency content of the seismic radiation is located in the shallow part of the megathrust, propagating unilaterally from the hypocenter toward the trench while most of the high-frequency content comes from the downdip part of the fault. Interpretation of multiple rupture stages in the radiation is also supported by the temporal variations of radiated energy and falloff rates. Finally, we discuss the possible mechanisms, either from prestress, fault geometry, and/or frictional properties to explain our observables. Our methodology is an attempt to bridge kinematic observations with earthquake dynamics.

Compiling an earthquake catalogue for the Arabian Plate, Western Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deif, Ahmed; Al-Shijbi, Yousuf; El-Hussain, Issa; Ezzelarab, Mohamed; Mohamed, Adel M. E.

2017-10-01

The Arabian Plate is surrounded by regions of relatively high seismicity. Accounting for this seismicity is of great importance for seismic hazard and risk assessments, seismic zoning, and land use. In this study, a homogenous earthquake catalogue of moment-magnitude (Mw) for the Arabian Plate is provided. The comprehensive and homogenous earthquake catalogue provided in the current study spatially involves the entire Arabian Peninsula and neighboring areas, covering all earthquake sources that can generate substantial hazard for the Arabian Plate mainland. The catalogue extends in time from 19 to 2015 with a total number of 13,156 events, of which 497 are historical events. Four polygons covering the entire Arabian Plate were delineated and different data sources including special studies, local, regional and international catalogues were used to prepare the earthquake catalogue. Moment magnitudes (Mw) that provided by original sources were given the highest magnitude type priority and introduced to the catalogues with their references. Earthquakes with magnitude differ from Mw were converted into this scale applying empirical relationships derived in the current or in previous studies. The four polygons catalogues were included in two comprehensive earthquake catalogues constituting the historical and instrumental periods. Duplicate events were identified and discarded from the current catalogue. The present earthquake catalogue was declustered in order to contain only independent events and investigated for the completeness with time of different magnitude spans.

Impact of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake on river organic carbon provenance: Insight from biomarkers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jin; Feng, Xiaojuan; Hilton, Robert; Jin, Zhangdong; Ma, Tian; Zhang, Fei; Li, Gen; Densmore, Alexander; West, A. Joshua

2017-04-01

Large earthquakes can trigger widespread landslides in active mountain belts, which can mobilize biospheric organic carbon (OC) from the soil and vegetation. Rivers can erode and export biospheric particulate organic carbon (POC), which is an export of ecosystem productivity and may result in a CO2 sink if buried in sedimentary deposits. Our previous work showed that the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake increased the discharge of biospheric OC by rivers, due to the increased supply by earthquake triggered landslides (Wang et al., 2016). However, while the OC derived from sedimentary rocks could be accounted for, the source of biospheric OC in rivers before and after the earthquake remains poorly constrained. Here we use suspended sediment samples collected from the Zagunao River before and after the Wenchuan earthquake and measured the specific compounds of OC, including fatty acids, lignin phenols and glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (GDGT) lipids. In combination with the analysis of bulk elemental concentration (C and N) and carbon isotopic ratio, the new data shows differential export patterns for OC components derived from varied terrestrial sources. A high frequency sampling enabled us to explore how the biospheric OC source changes following the earthquake, helping to better understand the link between active tectonics and the carbon cycle. Our results are also important in revealing how sedimentary biomarker records may record past earthquakes.

What Can Sounds Tell Us About Earthquake Interactions?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aiken, C.; Peng, Z.

2012-12-01

It is important not only for seismologists but also for educators to effectively convey information about earthquakes and the influences earthquakes can have on each other. Recent studies using auditory display [e.g. Kilb et al., 2012; Peng et al. 2012] have depicted catastrophic earthquakes and the effects large earthquakes can have on other parts of the world. Auditory display of earthquakes, which combines static images with time-compressed sound of recorded seismic data, is a new approach to disseminating information to a general audience about earthquakes and earthquake interactions. Earthquake interactions are influential to understanding the underlying physics of earthquakes and other seismic phenomena such as tremors in addition to their source characteristics (e.g. frequency contents, amplitudes). Earthquake interactions can include, for example, a large, shallow earthquake followed by increased seismicity around the mainshock rupture (i.e. aftershocks) or even a large earthquake triggering earthquakes or tremors several hundreds to thousands of kilometers away [Hill and Prejean, 2007; Peng and Gomberg, 2010]. We use standard tools like MATLAB, QuickTime Pro, and Python to produce animations that illustrate earthquake interactions. Our efforts are focused on producing animations that depict cross-section (side) views of tremors triggered along the San Andreas Fault by distant earthquakes, as well as map (bird's eye) views of mainshock-aftershock sequences such as the 2011/08/23 Mw5.8 Virginia earthquake sequence. These examples of earthquake interactions include sonifying earthquake and tremor catalogs as musical notes (e.g. piano keys) as well as audifying seismic data using time-compression. Our overall goal is to use auditory display to invigorate a general interest in earthquake seismology that leads to the understanding of how earthquakes occur, how earthquakes influence one another as well as tremors, and what the musical properties of these interactions can tell us about the source characteristics of earthquakes and tremors.

On The Source Of The 25 November 1941 - Atlantic Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baptista, M. A.; Lisboa, F. B.; Miranda, J. M. A.

2015-12-01

In this study we analyze the tsunami recorded in the North Atlantic following the 25 November 1941 earthquake. The earthquake with a magnitude of 8.3, located on the Gloria Fault, was one of the largest strike slip events recorded. The Gloria fault is a 500 km long scarp in the North Atlantic Ocean between 19W and 24W known to be a segment of the Eurasia-Nubia plate boundary between Iberia and the Azores. Ten tide stations recorded the tsunami. Six in Portugal (mainland, Azores and Madeira Islands), two in Morocco, one in the United Kingdom and one in Spain (Tenerife-Canary Islands). The tsunami waves reached Azores and Madeira Islands less than one hour after the main shock. The tide station of Casablanca (in Morocco) recorded the maximum amplitude of 0.54 m. All amplitudes recorded are lower than 0.5 m but the tsunami reached Portugal mainland in high tide conditions where the sea flooded some streets We analyze the 25 November 1941 tsunami data using the tide-records in the coasts of Portugal, Spain, Morocco and UK to infer its source. The use of wavelet analysis to characterize the frequency content of the tide-records shows predominant periods of 9-13min e 18-22min. A preliminary location of the tsunami source location was obtained Backward Ray Tracing (BRT). The results of the BRT technique are compatible with the epicenter location of the earthquake. We compute empirical Green functions for the earthquake generation area, and use a linear shallow water inversion technique to compute the initial water displacement. The comparison between forward modeling with observations shows a fair agreement with available data. This work received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n° 603839 (Project ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe)"

Studies of earthquakes and microearthquakes using near-field seismic and geodetic observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Toole, Thomas Bartholomew

The Centroid-Moment Tensor (CMT) method allows an optimal point-source description of an earthquake to be recovered from a set of seismic observations, and, for over 30 years, has been routinely applied to determine the location and source mechanism of teleseismically recorded earthquakes. The CMT approach is, however, entirely general: any measurements of seismic displacement fields could, in theory, be used within the CMT inversion formulation, so long as the treatment of the earthquake as a point source is valid for that data. We modify the CMT algorithm to enable a variety of near-field seismic observables to be inverted for the source parameters of an earthquake. The first two data types that we implement are provided by Global Positioning System receivers operating at sampling frequencies of 1,Hz and above. When deployed in the seismic near field, these instruments may be used as long-period-strong-motion seismometers, recording displacement time series that include the static offset. We show that both the displacement waveforms, and static displacements alone, can be used to obtain CMT solutions for moderate-magnitude earthquakes, and that performing analyses using these data may be useful for earthquake early warning. We also investigate using waveform recordings - made by conventional seismometers deployed at the surface, or by geophone arrays placed in boreholes - to determine CMT solutions, and their uncertainties, for microearthquakes induced by hydraulic fracturing. A similar waveform inversion approach could be applied in many other settings where induced seismicity and microseismicity occurs..

Source parameters and tectonic interpretation of recent earthquakes (1995 1997) in the Pannonian basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badawy, Ahmed; Horváth, Frank; Tóth, László

2001-01-01

From January 1995 to December 1997, about 74 earthquakes were located in the Pannonian basin and digitally recorded by a recently established network of seismological stations in Hungary. On reviewing the notable events, about 12 earthquakes were reported as felt with maximum intensity varying between 4 and 6 MSK. The dynamic source parameters of these earthquakes have been derived from P-wave displacement spectra. The displacement source spectra obtained are characterised by relatively small values of corner frequency ( f0) ranging between 2.5 and 10 Hz. The seismic moments change from 1.48×10 20 to 1.3×10 23 dyne cm, stress drops from 0.25 to 76.75 bar, fault length from 0.42 to 1.7 km and relative displacement from 0.05 to 15.35 cm. The estimated source parameters suggest a good agreement with the scaling law for small earthquakes. The small values of stress drops in the studied earthquakes can be attributed to the low strength of crustal materials in the Pannonian basin. However, the values of stress drops are not different for earthquake with thrust or normal faulting focal mechanism solutions. It can be speculated that an increase of the seismic activity in the Pannonian basin can be predicted in the long run because extensional development ceased and structural inversion is in progress. Seismic hazard assessment is a delicate job due to the inadequate knowledge of the seismo-active faults, particularly in the interior part of the Pannonian basin.

Ground Motion Simulation for a Large Active Fault System using Empirical Green's Function Method and the Strong Motion Prediction Recipe - a Case Study of the Noubi Fault Zone -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuriyama, M.; Kumamoto, T.; Fujita, M.

2005-12-01

The 1995 Hyogo-ken Nambu Earthquake (1995) near Kobe, Japan, spurred research on strong motion prediction. To mitigate damage caused by large earthquakes, a highly precise method of predicting future strong motion waveforms is required. In this study, we applied empirical Green's function method to forward modeling in order to simulate strong ground motion in the Noubi Fault zone and examine issues related to strong motion prediction for large faults. Source models for the scenario earthquakes were constructed using the recipe of strong motion prediction (Irikura and Miyake, 2001; Irikura et al., 2003). To calculate the asperity area ratio of a large fault zone, the results of a scaling model, a scaling model with 22% asperity by area, and a cascade model were compared, and several rupture points and segmentation parameters were examined for certain cases. A small earthquake (Mw: 4.6) that occurred in northern Fukui Prefecture in 2004 were examined as empirical Green's function, and the source spectrum of this small event was found to agree with the omega-square scaling law. The Nukumi, Neodani, and Umehara segments of the 1891 Noubi Earthquake were targeted in the present study. The positions of the asperity area and rupture starting points were based on the horizontal displacement distributions reported by Matsuda (1974) and the fault branching pattern and rupture direction model proposed by Nakata and Goto (1998). Asymmetry in the damage maps for the Noubi Earthquake was then examined. We compared the maximum horizontal velocities for each case that had a different rupture starting point. In the case, rupture started at the center of the Nukumi Fault, while in another case, rupture started on the southeastern edge of the Umehara Fault; the scaling model showed an approximately 2.1-fold difference between these cases at observation point FKI005 of K-Net. This difference is considered to relate to the directivity effect associated with the direction of rupture propagation. Moreover, it was clarified that the horizontal velocities by assuming the cascade model was underestimated more than one standard deviation of empirical relation by Si and Midorikawa (1999). The scaling and cascade models showed an approximately 6.4-fold difference for the case, in which the rupture started along the southeastern edge of the Umehara Fault at observation point GIF020. This difference is significantly large in comparison with the effect of different rupture starting points, and shows that it is important to base scenario earthquake assumptions on active fault datasets before establishing the source characterization model. The distribution map of seismic intensity for the 1891 Noubi Earthquake also suggests that the synthetic waveforms in the southeastern Noubi Fault zone may be underestimated. Our results indicate that outer fault parameters (e.g., earthquake moment) related to the construction of scenario earthquakes influence strong motion prediction, rather than inner fault parameters such as the rupture starting point. Based on these methods, we will predict strong motion for approximately 140 to 150 km of the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line.

Application of Second-Moment Source Analysis to Three Problems in Earthquake Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donovan, J.; Jordan, T. H.

2011-12-01

Though earthquake forecasting models have often represented seismic sources as space-time points (usually hypocenters), a more complete hazard analysis requires the consideration of finite-source effects, such as rupture extent, orientation, directivity, and stress drop. The most compact source representation that includes these effects is the finite moment tensor (FMT), which approximates the degree-two polynomial moments of the stress glut by its projection onto the seismic (degree-zero) moment tensor. This projection yields a scalar space-time source function whose degree-one moments define the centroid moment tensor (CMT) and whose degree-two moments define the FMT. We apply this finite-source parameterization to three forecasting problems. The first is the question of hypocenter bias: can we reject the null hypothesis that the conditional probability of hypocenter location is uniformly distributed over the rupture area? This hypothesis is currently used to specify rupture sets in the "extended" earthquake forecasts that drive simulation-based hazard models, such as CyberShake. Following McGuire et al. (2002), we test the hypothesis using the distribution of FMT directivity ratios calculated from a global data set of source slip inversions. The second is the question of source identification: given an observed FMT (and its errors), can we identify it with an FMT in the complete rupture set that represents an extended fault-based rupture forecast? Solving this problem will facilitate operational earthquake forecasting, which requires the rapid updating of earthquake triggering and clustering models. Our proposed method uses the second-order uncertainties as a norm on the FMT parameter space to identify the closest member of the hypothetical rupture set and to test whether this closest member is an adequate representation of the observed event. Finally, we address the aftershock excitation problem: given a mainshock, what is the spatial distribution of aftershock probabilities? The FMT representation allows us to generalize the models typically used for this purpose (e.g., marked point process models, such as ETAS), which will again be necessary in operational earthquake forecasting. To quantify aftershock probabilities, we compare mainshock FMTs with the first and second spatial moments of weighted aftershock hypocenters. We will describe applications of these results to the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3, which is now under development by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.

On the relation of earthquake stress drop and ground motion variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oth, Adrien; Miyake, Hiroe; Bindi, Dino

2017-07-01

One of the key parameters for earthquake source physics is stress drop since it can be directly linked to the spectral level of ground motion. Stress drop estimates from moment corner frequency analysis have been shown to be extremely variable, and this to a much larger degree than expected from the between-event ground motion variability. This discrepancy raises the question whether classically determined stress drop variability is too large, which would have significant consequences for seismic hazard analysis. We use a large high-quality data set from Japan with well-studied stress drop data to address this issue. Nonparametric and parametric reference ground motion models are derived, and the relation of between-event residuals for Japan Meteorological Agency equivalent seismic intensity and peak ground acceleration with stress drop is analyzed for crustal earthquakes. We find a clear correlation of the between-event residuals with stress drops estimates; however, while the island of Kyushu is characterized by substantially larger stress drops than Honshu, the between-event residuals do not reflect this observation, leading to the appearance of two event families with different stress drop levels yet similar range of between-event residuals. Both the within-family and between-family stress drop variations are larger than expected from the ground motion between-event variability. A systematic common analysis of these parameters holds the potential to provide important constraints on the relative robustness of different groups of data in the different parameter spaces and to improve our understanding on how much of the observed source parameter variability is likely to be true source physics variability.

InSAR Analysis of the 2011 Hawthorne (Nevada) Earthquake Swarm: Implications of Earthquake Migration and Stress Transfer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zha, X.; Dai, Z.; Lu, Z.

2015-12-01

The 2011 Hawthorne earthquake swarm occurred in the central Walker Lane zone, neighboring the border between California and Nevada. The swarm included an Mw 4.4 on April 13, Mw 4.6 on April 17, and Mw 3.9 on April 27. Due to the lack of the near-field seismic instrument, it is difficult to get the accurate source information from the seismic data for these moderate-magnitude events. ENVISAT InSAR observations captured the deformation mainly caused by three events during the 2011 Hawthorne earthquake swarm. The surface traces of three seismogenic sources could be identified according to the local topography and interferogram phase discontinuities. The epicenters could be determined using the interferograms and the relocated earthquake distribution. An apparent earthquake migration is revealed by InSAR observations and the earthquake distribution. Analysis and modeling of InSAR data show that three moderate magnitude earthquakes were produced by slip on three previously unrecognized faults in the central Walker Lane. Two seismogenic sources are northwest striking, right-lateral strike-slip faults with some thrust-slip components, and the other source is a northeast striking, thrust-slip fault with some strike-slip components. The former two faults are roughly parallel to each other, and almost perpendicular to the latter one. This special spatial correlation between three seismogenic faults and nature of seismogenic faults suggest the central Walker Lane has been undergoing southeast-northwest horizontal compressive deformation, consistent with the region crustal movement revealed by GPS measurement. The Coulomb failure stresses on the fault planes were calculated using the preferred slip model and the Coulomb 3.4 software package. For the Mw4.6 earthquake, the Coulomb stress change caused by the Mw4.4 event increased by ~0.1 bar. For the Mw3.9 event, the Coulomb stress change caused by the Mw4.6 earthquake increased by ~1.0 bar. This indicates that the preceding earthquake may trigger the subsequence one. Because no abnormal volcano activity was observed during the 2011 Hawthorne earthquake swarm, we can rule out the volcano activity to induce these events. However, the groundwater change and mining in the epicentral zone may contribute to the 2011 Hawthorne earthquake.

The music of earthquakes and Earthquake Quartet #1

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michael, Andrew J.

2013-01-01

Earthquake Quartet #1, my composition for voice, trombone, cello, and seismograms, is the intersection of listening to earthquakes as a seismologist and performing music as a trombonist. Along the way, I realized there is a close relationship between what I do as a scientist and what I do as a musician. A musician controls the source of the sound and the path it travels through their instrument in order to make sound waves that we hear as music. An earthquake is the source of waves that travel along a path through the earth until reaching us as shaking. It is almost as if the earth is a musician and people, including seismologists, are metaphorically listening and trying to understand what the music means.

Seismic gaps and source zones of recent large earthquakes in coastal Peru

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dewey, J.W.; Spence, W.

1979-01-01

The earthquakes of central coastal Peru occur principally in two distinct zones of shallow earthquake activity that are inland of and parallel to the axis of the Peru Trench. The interface-thrust (IT) zone includes the great thrust-fault earthquakes of 17 October 1966 and 3 October 1974. The coastal-plate interior (CPI) zone includes the great earthquake of 31 May 1970, and is located about 50 km inland of and 30 km deeper than the interface thrust zone. The occurrence of a large earthquake in one zone may not relieve elastic strain in the adjoining zone, thus complicating the application of the seismic gap concept to central coastal Peru. However, recognition of two seismic zones may facilitate detection of seismicity precursory to a large earthquake in a given zone; removal of probable CPI-zone earthquakes from plots of seismicity prior to the 1974 main shock dramatically emphasizes the high seismic activity near the rupture zone of that earthquake in the five years preceding the main shock. Other conclusions on the seismicity of coastal Peru that affect the application of the seismic gap concept to this region are: (1) Aftershocks of the great earthquakes of 1966, 1970, and 1974 occurred in spatially separated clusters. Some clusters may represent distinct small source regions triggered by the main shock rather than delimiting the total extent of main-shock rupture. The uncertainty in the interpretation of aftershock clusters results in corresponding uncertainties in estimates of stress drop and estimates of the dimensions of the seismic gap that has been filled by a major earthquake. (2) Aftershocks of the great thrust-fault earthquakes of 1966 and 1974 generally did not extend seaward as far as the Peru Trench. (3) None of the three great earthquakes produced significant teleseismic activity in the following month in the source regions of the other two earthquakes. The earthquake hypocenters that form the basis of this study were relocated using station adjustments computed by the method of joint hypocenter determination. ?? 1979 Birkha??user Verlag.

Earthquake Risk Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, N.; Sakai, S.; Kasahara, K.; Nakagawa, S.; Nanjo, K.; Panayotopoulos, Y.; Tsuruoka, H.

2010-12-01

Seismic disaster risk mitigation in urban areas constitutes a challenge through collaboration of scientific, engineering, and social-science fields. Examples of collaborative efforts include research on detailed plate structure with identification of all significant faults, developing dense seismic networks; strong ground motion prediction, which uses information on near-surface seismic site effects and fault models; earthquake resistant and proof structures; and cross-discipline infrastructure for effective risk mitigation just after catastrophic events. Risk mitigation strategy for the next greater earthquake caused by the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducting beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area is of major concern because it caused past mega-thrust earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (magnitude M8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M7.9) which had 105,000 fatalities. A M7 or greater (M7+) earthquake in this area at present has high potential to produce devastating loss of life and property with even greater global economic repercussions. The Central Disaster Management Council of Japan estimates that the M7+ earthquake will cause 11,000 fatalities and 112 trillion yen (about 1 trillion US$) economic loss. This earthquake is evaluated to occur with a probability of 70% in 30 years by the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan. In order to mitigate disaster for greater Tokyo, the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (2007-2011) was launched in collaboration with scientists, engineers, and social-scientists in nationwide institutions. The results that are obtained in the respective fields will be integrated until project termination to improve information on the strategy assessment for seismic risk mitigation in the Tokyo metropolitan area. In this talk, we give an outline of our project as an example of collaborative research on earthquake risk mitigation. Discussion is extended to our effort in progress and scientific results obtained so far at the Earthquake Research Institute (ERI). ERI hosts the scientific part focusing on characterization of the plate structure and source faults in and around the Tokyo metropolitan area. One of the topics is ongoing deployment of seismic stations that constitute the Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net). We have deployed 226 stations with a 2-5 km interval in space. Based on seismic data obtained from the MeSO-net, we aim to reveal the detailed geometry of the subducting PSP.

An empirical model for earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay region, California, 2002-2031

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reasenberg, P.A.; Hanks, T.C.; Bakun, W.H.

2003-01-01

The moment magnitude M 7.8 earthquake in 1906 profoundly changed the rate of seismic activity over much of northern California. The low rate of seismic activity in the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) since 1906, relative to that of the preceding 55 yr, is often explained as a stress-shadow effect of the 1906 earthquake. However, existing elastic and visco-elastic models of stress change fail to fully account for the duration of the lowered rate of earthquake activity. We use variations in the rate of earthquakes as a basis for a simple empirical model for estimating the probability of M ≥6.7 earthquakes in the SFBR. The model preserves the relative magnitude distribution of sources predicted by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities' (WGCEP, 1999; WGCEP, 2002) model of characterized ruptures on SFBR faults and is consistent with the occurrence of the four M ≥6.7 earthquakes in the region since 1838. When the empirical model is extrapolated 30 yr forward from 2002, it gives a probability of 0.42 for one or more M ≥6.7 in the SFBR. This result is lower than the probability of 0.5 estimated by WGCEP (1988), lower than the 30-yr Poisson probability of 0.60 obtained by WGCEP (1999) and WGCEP (2002), and lower than the 30-yr time-dependent probabilities of 0.67, 0.70, and 0.63 obtained by WGCEP (1990), WGCEP (1999), and WGCEP (2002), respectively, for the occurrence of one or more large earthquakes. This lower probability is consistent with the lack of adequate accounting for the 1906 stress-shadow in these earlier reports. The empirical model represents one possible approach toward accounting for the stress-shadow effect of the 1906 earthquake. However, the discrepancy between our result and those obtained with other modeling methods underscores the fact that the physics controlling the timing of earthquakes is not well understood. Hence, we advise against using the empirical model alone (or any other single probability model) for estimating the earthquake hazard and endorse the use of all credible earthquake probability models for the region, including the empirical model, with appropriate weighting, as was done in WGCEP (2002).

Feasibility study of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thelen, Weston A.; Hotovec-Ellis, Alicia J.; Bodin, Paul

2016-09-30

The effects of earthquake shaking on the population and infrastructure across the State of Hawaii could be catastrophic, and the high seismic hazard in the region emphasizes the likelihood of such an event. Earthquake early warning (EEW) has the potential to give several seconds of warning before strong shaking starts, and thus reduce loss of life and damage to property. The two approaches to EEW are (1) a network approach (such as ShakeAlert or ElarmS) where the regional seismic network is used to detect the earthquake and distribute the alarm and (2) a local approach where a critical facility has a single seismometer (or small array) and a warning system on the premises.The network approach, also referred to here as ShakeAlert or ElarmS, uses the closest stations within a regional seismic network to detect and characterize an earthquake. Most parameters used for a network approach require observations on multiple stations (typically 3 or 4), which slows down the alarm time slightly, but the alarms are generally more reliable than with single-station EEW approaches. The network approach also benefits from having stations closer to the source of any potentially damaging earthquake, so that alarms can be sent ahead to anyone who subscribes to receive the notification. Thus, a fully implemented ShakeAlert system can provide seconds of warning for both critical facilities and general populations ahead of damaging earthquake shaking.The cost to implement and maintain a fully operational ShakeAlert system is high compared to a local approach or single-station solution, but the benefits of a ShakeAlert system would be felt statewide—the warning times for strong shaking are potentially longer for most sources at most locations.The local approach, referred to herein as “single station,” uses measurements from a single seismometer to assess whether strong earthquake shaking can be expected. Because of the reliance on a single station, false alarms are more common than when using a regional network of seismometers. Given the current network, a single-station approach provides more warning for damaging earthquakes that occur close to the station, but it would have limited benefit compared to a fully implemented ShakeAlert system. For Honolulu, for example, the single-station approach provides an advantage over ShakeAlert only for earthquakes that occur in a narrow zone extending northeast and southwest of O‘ahu. Instrumentation and alarms associated with the single-station approach are typically maintained and assessed within the target facility, and thus no outside connectivity is required. A single-station approach, then, is unlikely to help broader populations beyond the individuals at the target facility, but they have the benefit of being commercially available for relatively little cost. The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) is the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional seismic network responsible for locating and characterizing earthquakes across the State of Hawaii. During 2014 and 2015, HVO tested a network-based EEW algorithm within the current seismic network in order to assess the suitability for building a full EEW system. Using the current seismic instrumentation and processing setup at HVO, it is possible for a network approach to release an alarm a little more than 3 seconds after the earthquake is recorded on the fourth seismometer. Presently, earthquakes having M≥3 detected with the ElarmS algorithm have an average location error of approximately 4.5 km and an average magnitude error of -0.3 compared to the reviewed catalog locations from the HVO. Additional stations and upgrades to existing seismic stations would serve to improve solution precision and warning times and additional staffing would be required to provide support for a robust, network-based EEW system. For a critical facility on the Island of Hawaiʻi, such as the telescopes atop Mauna Kea, one phased approach to mitigate losses could be to immediately install a single station system to establish some level of warning. Subsequently, supporting the implementation of a full network-based EEW system on the Island of Hawaiʻi would provide additional benefit in the form of improved warning times once the system is fully installed and operational, which may take several years. Distributed populations across the Hawaiian Islands, including those outside the major cities and far from the likely earthquake source areas, would likely only benefit from a network approach such as ShakeAlert to provide warnings of strong shaking.

On the scale dependence of earthquake stress drop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cocco, Massimo; Tinti, Elisa; Cirella, Antonella

2016-10-01

We discuss the debated issue of scale dependence in earthquake source mechanics with the goal of providing supporting evidence to foster the adoption of a coherent interpretative framework. We examine the heterogeneous distribution of source and constitutive parameters during individual ruptures and their scaling with earthquake size. We discuss evidence that slip, slip-weakening distance and breakdown work scale with seismic moment and are interpreted as scale dependent parameters. We integrate our estimates of earthquake stress drop, computed through a pseudo-dynamic approach, with many others available in the literature for both point sources and finite fault models. We obtain a picture of the earthquake stress drop scaling with seismic moment over an exceptional broad range of earthquake sizes (-8 < MW < 9). Our results confirm that stress drop values are scattered over three order of magnitude and emphasize the lack of corroborating evidence that stress drop scales with seismic moment. We discuss these results in terms of scale invariance of stress drop with source dimension to analyse the interpretation of this outcome in terms of self-similarity. Geophysicists are presently unable to provide physical explanations of dynamic self-similarity relying on deterministic descriptions of micro-scale processes. We conclude that the interpretation of the self-similar behaviour of stress drop scaling is strongly model dependent. We emphasize that it relies on a geometric description of source heterogeneity through the statistical properties of initial stress or fault-surface topography, in which only the latter is constrained by observations.

Repeated Earthquakes in the Vrancea Subcrustal Source and Source Scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popescu, Emilia; Otilia Placinta, Anica; Borleasnu, Felix; Radulian, Mircea

2017-12-01

The Vrancea seismic nest, located at the South-Eastern Carpathians Arc bend, in Romania, is a well-confined cluster of seismicity at intermediate depth (60 - 180 km). During the last 100 years four major shocks were recorded in the lithosphere body descending almost vertically beneath the Vrancea region: 10 November 1940 (Mw 7.7, depth 150 km), 4 March 1977 (Mw 7.4, depth 94 km), 30 August 1986 (Mw 7.1, depth 131 km) and a double shock on 30 and 31 May 1990 (Mw 6.9, depth 91 km and Mw 6.4, depth 87 km, respectively). The probability of repeated earthquakes in the Vrancea seismogenic volume is relatively large taking into account the high density of foci. The purpose of the present paper is to investigate source parameters and clustering properties for the repetitive earthquakes (located close each other) recorded in the Vrancea seismogenic subcrustal region. To this aim, we selected a set of earthquakes as templates for different co-located groups of events covering the entire depth range of active seismicity. For the identified clusters of repetitive earthquakes, we applied spectral ratios technique and empirical Green’s function deconvolution, in order to constrain as much as possible source parameters. Seismicity patterns of repeated earthquakes in space, time and size are investigated in order to detect potential interconnections with larger events. Specific scaling properties are analyzed as well. The present analysis represents a first attempt to provide a strategy for detecting and monitoring possible interconnections between different nodes of seismic activity and their role in modelling tectonic processes responsible for generating the major earthquakes in the Vrancea subcrustal seismogenic source.

Modeling subduction earthquake sources in the central-western region of Colombia using waveform inversion of body waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monsalve-Jaramillo, Hugo; Valencia-Mina, William; Cano-Saldaña, Leonardo; Vargas, Carlos A.

2018-05-01

Source parameters of four earthquakes located within the Wadati-Benioff zone of the Nazca plate subducting beneath the South American plate in Colombia were determined. The seismic moments for these events were recalculated and their approximate equivalent rupture area, slip distribution and stress drop were estimated. The source parameters for these earthquakes were obtained by deconvolving multiple events through teleseismic analysis of body waves recorded in long period stations and with simultaneous inversion of P and SH waves. The calculated source time functions for these events showed different stages that suggest that these earthquakes can reasonably be thought of being composed of two subevents. Even though two of the overall focal mechanisms obtained yielded similar results to those reported by the CMT catalogue, the two other mechanisms showed a clear difference compared to those officially reported. Despite this, it appropriate to mention that the mechanisms inverted in this work agree well with the expected orientation of faulting at that depth as well as with the wave forms they are expected to produce. In some of the solutions achieved, one of the two subevents exhibited a focal mechanism considerably different from the total earthquake mechanism; this could be interpreted as the result of a slight deviation from the overall motion due the complex stress field as well as the possibility of a combination of different sources of energy release analogous to the ones that may occur in deeper earthquakes. In those cases, the subevents with very different focal mechanism compared to the total earthquake mechanism had little contribution to the final solution and thus little contribution to the total amount of energy released.

International Aftershock Forecasting: Lessons from the Gorkha Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michael, A. J.; Blanpied, M. L.; Brady, S. R.; van der Elst, N.; Hardebeck, J.; Mayberry, G. C.; Page, M. T.; Smoczyk, G. M.; Wein, A. M.

2015-12-01

Following the M7.8 Gorhka, Nepal, earthquake of April 25, 2015 the USGS issued a series of aftershock forecasts. The initial impetus for these forecasts was a request from the USAID Office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance to support their Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) which coordinated US Government disaster response, including search and rescue, with the Government of Nepal. Because of the possible utility of the forecasts to people in the region and other response teams, the USGS released these forecasts publicly through the USGS Earthquake Program web site. The initial forecast used the Reasenberg and Jones (Science, 1989) model with generic parameters developed for active deep continental regions based on the Garcia et al. (BSSA, 2012) tectonic regionalization. These were then updated to reflect a lower productivity and higher decay rate based on the observed aftershocks, although relying on teleseismic observations, with a high magnitude-of-completeness, limited the amount of data. After the 12 May M7.3 aftershock, the forecasts used an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model to better characterize the multiple sources of earthquake clustering. This model provided better estimates of aftershock uncertainty. These forecast messages were crafted based on lessons learned from the Christchurch earthquake along with input from the U.S. Embassy staff in Kathmandu. Challenges included how to balance simple messaging with forecasts over a variety of time periods (week, month, and year), whether to characterize probabilities with words such as those suggested by the IPCC (IPCC, 2010), how to word the messages in a way that would translate accurately into Nepali and not alarm the public, and how to present the probabilities of unlikely but possible large and potentially damaging aftershocks, such as the M7.3 event, which had an estimated probability of only 1-in-200 for the week in which it occurred.

Global Dynamic Exposure and the OpenBuildingMap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schorlemmer, D.; Beutin, T.; Hirata, N.; Hao, K. X.; Wyss, M.; Cotton, F.; Prehn, K.

2015-12-01

Detailed understanding of local risk factors regarding natural catastrophes requires in-depth characterization of the local exposure. Current exposure capture techniques have to find the balance between resolution and coverage. We aim at bridging this gap by employing a crowd-sourced approach to exposure capturing focusing on risk related to earthquake hazard. OpenStreetMap (OSM), the rich and constantly growing geographical database, is an ideal foundation for us. More than 2.5 billion geographical nodes, more than 150 million building footprints (growing by ~100'000 per day), and a plethora of information about school, hospital, and other critical facility locations allow us to exploit this dataset for risk-related computations. We will harvest this dataset by collecting exposure and vulnerability indicators from explicitly provided data (e.g. hospital locations), implicitly provided data (e.g. building shapes and positions), and semantically derived data, i.e. interpretation applying expert knowledge. With this approach, we can increase the resolution of existing exposure models from fragility classes distribution via block-by-block specifications to building-by-building vulnerability. To increase coverage, we will provide a framework for collecting building data by any person or community. We will implement a double crowd-sourced approach to bring together the interest and enthusiasm of communities with the knowledge of earthquake and engineering experts. The first crowd-sourced approach aims at collecting building properties in a community by local people and activists. This will be supported by tailored building capture tools for mobile devices for simple and fast building property capturing. The second crowd-sourced approach involves local experts in estimating building vulnerability that will provide building classification rules that translate building properties into vulnerability and exposure indicators as defined in the Building Taxonomy 2.0 developed by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM). These indicators will then be combined with a hazard model using the GEM OpenQuake engine to compute a risk model. The free/open framework we will provide can be used on commodity hardware for local to regional exposure capturing and for communities to understand their earthquake risk.

Earthquake-induced ground failures in Italy from a reviewed database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martino, S.; Prestininzi, A.; Romeo, R. W.

2013-05-01

A database (Italian acronym CEDIT) of earthquake-induced ground failures in Italy is presented, and the related content is analysed. The catalogue collects data regarding landslides, liquefaction, ground cracks, surface faulting and ground-level changes triggered by earthquakes of Mercalli intensity 8 or greater that occurred in the last millennium in Italy. As of January 2013, the CEDIT database has been available online for public use (URL: http://www.ceri.uniroma1.it/cn/index.do?id=230&page=55) and is presently hosted by the website of the Research Centre for Geological Risks (CERI) of the "Sapienza" University of Rome. Summary statistics of the database content indicate that 14% of the Italian municipalities have experienced at least one earthquake-induced ground failure and that landslides are the most common ground effects (approximately 45%), followed by ground cracks (32%) and liquefaction (18%). The relationships between ground effects and earthquake parameters such as seismic source energy (earthquake magnitude and epicentral intensity), local conditions (site intensity) and source-to-site distances are also analysed. The analysis indicates that liquefaction, surface faulting and ground-level changes are much more dependent on the earthquake source energy (i.e. magnitude) than landslides and ground cracks. In contrast, the latter effects are triggered at lower site intensities and greater epicentral distances than the other environmental effects.

Tsunami early warning in the central Mediterranean: effect of the heterogeneity of the seismic source on the timely detectability of a tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armigliato, A.; Tinti, S.; Pagnoni, G.; Zaniboni, F.

2012-04-01

The central Mediterranean, and in particular the coasts of southern Italy, is one of the areas with the highest tsunami hazard in Europe. Limiting our attention to earthquake-generated tsunamis, the sources of historical events hitting this region, as well as the largest part of the potential tsunamigenic seismic sources mapped there, are found at very short distances from the closest shorelines, reducing the time needed for the tsunami to attack the coasts themselves to few minutes. This represents by itself an issue from the Tsunami Early Warning (TEW) perspective. To make the overall problem even more intriguing and challenging, it is known that large tsunamigenic earthquakes are generally characterized by highly heterogeneous distributions of the slip on the fault. This feature has been recognized clearly, for instance, in the giant Sumatra 2004, Chile 2010, and Japan 2011 earthquakes (magnitude 9.3, 8.8 and 9.0, respectively), but it was a property also of smaller magnitude events occurred in the region considered in this study, like the 28 December 1908 Messina Straits tsunamigenic earthquake (M=7.2). In terms of tsunami impact, the parent fault slip heterogeneity usually determines a high variability of run-up and inundation on the near-field coasts, which further complicates the TEW problem. The information on the details of the seismic source rupture coming from the seismic (and possibly geodetic) networks, though of primary importance, is typically available after a time that is comparable or larger than the time comprised between the generation and the impact of the tsunami. In the framework of the EU-FP7 TRIDEC Project, we investigate how a proper marine sensors coverage both along the coasts and offshore can help posing constraints on the characteristics of the source in near-real time. Our approach consists in discussing numerical tsunami scenarios in the central Mediterranean involving different slip distributions on the parent fault; the tsunamigenic region we take into consideration is the Hyblaean-Malta escarpment located offshore eastern Sicily, where several large historical tsunamigenic earthquakes took place (e.g. 11 January 1693). Starting from different slip configurations on a chosen fault, we compare the time series of wave elevation simulated for tide gauges placed along the coast and for virtual deep sea sensors placed at different distances from the source area. The final goal is to understand whether a properly designed marine sensor network can help determining in real-time the slip characteristics along the parent fault and hence forecasting the pattern of impact of the tsunami especially along the closest coasts.

Characterizing waveform uncertainty due to ambient noise for the Global Seismic Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guandique, J. A.; Burdick, S.; Lekic, V.

2015-12-01

Ambient seismic noise is the vibration present on seismograms not due by any earthquake or discrete source. It can be caused by trees swaying in the wind or trucks rumbling on the freeway, but the main source of noise is the microseism caused by ocean waves. The frequency content and amplitude of seismic noise varies due to weather, season, and the location of a station, among other factors. Because noise affects recordings of earthquake waveforms, better understanding it could improve the detection of small earthquakes, reduce false positives in earthquake early warning, and quantify uncertainty in waveform-based studies In this study, we used two years of 3-component accelerograms from stations in the GSN. We eliminate days with major earthquakes, aggregate analysis by month, and calculate the mean power spectrum for each component and the transfer function between components. For each power spectrum, we determine the dominant frequency and amplitude of the primary (PM) and secondary (SM) microseisms which appear at periods of ~14s and ~7s, as well as any other prominent peaks. The cross-component terms show that noise recorded on different components cannot be treated as independent. Trends in coherence and phase delay suggest directionality in the noise and information about in which modes it propagates. Preliminary results show that the noise on island stations exhibits less monthly variability, and its PM peaks tend to be much weaker than the SM peaks. The continental stations show much less consistent behavior, with higher variability in the PM peaks between stations and higher frequency content during winter months. Stations that are further inland have smaller SM peaks compared to coastal stations, which are more similar to island stations. Using these spectra and cross-component results, we develop a method for generating realistic 3-component seismic noise and covariance matrices, which can be used across various seismic applications.

Seismological investigation of September 09 2016, North Korea underground nuclear test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaber, H.; Elkholy, S.; Abdelazim, M.; Hamama, I. H.; Othman, A. S.

2017-12-01

On Sep. 9, 2016, a seismic event of mb 5.3 took place in North Korea. This event was reported as a nuclear test. In this study, we applied a number of discriminant techniques that facilitate the ability to distinguish between explosions and earthquakes on the Korean Peninsula. The differences between explosions and earthquakes are due to variation in source dimension, epicenter depth and source mechanism, or a collection of them. There are many seismological differences between nuclear explosions and earthquakes, but not all of them are detectable at large distances or are appropriate to each earthquake and explosion. The discrimination methods used in the current study include the seismic source location, source depth, the differences in the frequency contents, complexity versus spectral ratio and Ms-mb differences for both earthquakes and explosions. Sep. 9, 2016, event is located in the region of North Korea nuclear test site at a zero depth, which is likely to be a nuclear explosion. Comparison between the P wave spectra of the nuclear test and the Sep. 8, 2000, North Korea earthquake, mb 4.9 shows that the spectrum of both events is nearly the same. The results of applying the theoretical model of Brune to P wave spectra of both explosion and earthquake show that the explosion manifests larger corner frequency than the earthquake, reflecting the nature of the different sources. The complexity and spectral ratio were also calculated from the waveform data recorded at a number of stations in order to investigate the relation between them. The observed classification percentage of this method is about 81%. Finally, the mb:Ms method is also investigated. We calculate mb and Ms for the Sep. 9, 2016, explosion and compare the result with the mb: Ms chart obtained from the previous studies. This method is working well with the explosion.

Coseismic slip of two large Mexican earthquakes from teleseismic body waveforms - Implications for asperity interaction in the Michoacan plate boundary segment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, Carlos

1993-05-01

The distributions and depths of coseismic slip are derived for the October 25, 1981 Playa Azul and September 21, 1985 Zihuatanejo earthquakes in western Mexico by inverting the recorded teleseismic body waves. Rupture during the Playa Azul earthquake appears to have occurred in two separate zones both updip and downdip of the point of initial nucleation, with most of the slip concentrated in a circular region of 15-km radius downdip from the hypocenter. Coseismic slip occurred entirely within the area of reduced slip between the two primary shallow sources of the Michoacan earthquake that occurred on September 19, 1985, almost 4 years later. The slip of the Zihuatanejo earthquake was concentrated in an area adjacent to one of the main sources of the Michoacan earthquake and appears to be the southeastern continuation of rupture along the Cocos-North America plate boundary. The zones of maximum slip for the Playa Azul, Zihuatanejo, and Michoacan earthquakes may be considered asperity regions that control the occurrence of large earthquakes along the Michoacan segment of the plate boundary.

Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freire, S.; Aubrecht, C.

2012-11-01

Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

Eruption-induced modifications to volcanic seismicity at Ruapehu, New Zealand, and its implications for eruption forecasting

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bryan, C.J.; Sherburn, S.

2003-01-01

Broadband seismic data collected on Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand, in 1994 and 1998 show that the 1995-1996 eruptions of Ruapehu resulted in a significant change in the frequency content of tremor and volcanic earthquakes at the volcano. The pre-eruption volcanic seismicity was characterized by several independent dominant frequencies, with a 2 Hz spectral peak dominating the strongest tremor and volcanic earthquakes and higher frequencies forming the background signal. The post-eruption volcanic seismicity was dominated by a 0.8-1.4 Hz spectral peak not seen before the eruptions. The 2 Hz and higher frequency signals remained, but were subordinate to the 0.8-1.4 Hz energy. That the dominant frequencies of volcanic tremor and volcanic earthquakes were identical during the individual time periods prior to and following the 1995-1996 eruptions suggests that during each of these time periods the volcanic tremor and earthquakes were generated by the same source process. The overall change in the frequency content, which occurred during the 1995-1996 eruptions and remains as of the time of the writing of this paper, most likely resulted from changes in the volcanic plumbing system and has significant implications for forecasting and real-time assessment of future eruptive activity at Ruapehu.

An integrated investigation of the induced seismicity near Crooked Lake, Alberta, Canada in 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, R.; Gu, Y. J.; Shen, J.; Schultz, R.

2016-12-01

In the past three years, the Crooked Lake (or Fox Creek) region has become one of the most seismically active areas in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB), mostly attributable to hydraulic-fracturing operations on shale gas. Among the human-related earthquakes, the January 12, 2016 event (M = 4.1) not only triggered the "red light" provincial protocol, leading to the temporary suspension of a near-by injection well, but also set a new magnitude record for earthquakes in Alberta in the last decade. In this study, we determine the source parameters (e.g., magnitude, hypocenter location) of this earthquake and its aftershocks using full moment tensor inversions. Our findings are consistent with the anthropogenic origin of this earthquake and the source solution of the main shock shows a strike-slip mechanism with limited non-double-couple components ( 22%). The candidate fault orientations, which are predominantly N-S and E-W trending, are consistent with those of earlier events in this region but different from induced events in other parts in the WCSB. The inferred compressional axis is supported by crustal stress orientations extracted from bore-hole breakouts and the right-lateral fault is preferred by both seismic and aeromagnetic data. A further analysis of the waveforms from the near-source stations (<10 km) detected nearly 100 pre-/aftershocks within a week of this earthquake. Systematic differences in the waveforms between earthquake multiples before and after the master event suggest moderate changes of seismic velocity structures at the injection depth around the source area, possibly a reflection of fluid migration and/or changes in stress field. In short, our integrated study on the January 2016 earthquake cluster offers critical insights on the nature of induced earthquakes in the Crooked Lake region and other parts of the WCSB.

Deterministic earthquake scenario for the Basel area: Simulating strong motions and site effects for Basel, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

OpršAl, Ivo; FäH, Donat; Mai, P. Martin; Giardini, Domenico

2005-04-01

The Basel earthquake of 18 October 1356 is considered one of the most serious earthquakes in Europe in recent centuries (I0 = IX, M ≈ 6.5-6.9). In this paper we present ground motion simulations for earthquake scenarios for the city of Basel and its vicinity. The numerical modeling combines the finite extent pseudodynamic and kinematic source models with complex local structure in a two-step hybrid three-dimensional (3-D) finite difference (FD) method. The synthetic seismograms are accurate in the frequency band 0-2.2 Hz. The 3-D FD is a linear explicit displacement formulation using an irregular rectangular grid including topography. The finite extent rupture model is adjacent to the free surface because the fault has been recognized through trenching on the Reinach fault. We test two source models reminiscent of past earthquakes (the 1999 Athens and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake) to represent Mw ≈ 5.9 and Mw ≈ 6.5 events that occur approximately to the south of Basel. To compare the effect of the same wave field arriving at the site from other directions, we considered the same sources placed east and west of the city. The local structural model is determined from the area's recently established P and S wave velocity structure and includes topography. The selected earthquake scenarios show strong ground motion amplification with respect to a bedrock site, which is in contrast to previous 2-D simulations for the same area. In particular, we found that the edge effects from the 3-D structural model depend strongly on the position of the earthquake source within the modeling domain.

Analysis the Source model of the 2009 Mw 7.6 Padang Earthquake in Sumatra Region using continuous GPS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amertha Sanjiwani, I. D. M.; En, C. K.; Anjasmara, I. M.

2017-12-01

A seismic gap on the interface along the Sunda subduction zone has been proposed among the 2000, 2004, 2005 and 2007 great earthquakes. This seismic gap therefore plays an important role in the earthquake risk on the Sunda trench. The Mw 7.6 Padang earthquake, an intraslab event, was occurred on September 30, 2009 located at ± 250 km east of the Sunda trench, close to the seismic gap on the interface. To understand the interaction between the seismic gap and the Padang earthquake, twelves continuous GPS data from SUGAR are adopted in this study to estimate the source model of this event. The daily GPS coordinates one month before and after the earthquake were calculated by the GAMIT software. The coseismic displacements were evaluated based on the analysis of coordinate time series in Padang region. This geodetic network provides a rather good spatial coverage for examining the seismic source along the Padang region in detail. The general pattern of coseismic horizontal displacements is moving toward epicenter and also the trench. The coseismic vertical displacement pattern is uplift. The highest coseismic displacement derived from the MSAI station are 35.0 mm for horizontal component toward S32.1°W and 21.7 mm for vertical component. The second largest one derived from the LNNG station are 26.6 mm for horizontal component toward N68.6°W and 3.4 mm for vertical component. Next, we will use uniform stress drop inversion to invert the coseismic displacement field for estimating the source model. Then the relationship between the seismic gap on the interface and the intraslab Padang earthquake will be discussed in the next step. Keyword: seismic gap, Padang earthquake, coseismic displacement.

Scaling Relations of Earthquakes on Inland Active Mega-Fault Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murotani, S.; Matsushima, S.; Azuma, T.; Irikura, K.; Kitagawa, S.

2010-12-01

Since 2005, The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) has been publishing 'National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan' to provide useful information for disaster prevention countermeasures for the country and local public agencies, as well as promote public awareness of disaster prevention of earthquakes. In the course of making the year 2009 version of the map, which is the commemorate of the tenth anniversary of the settlement of the Comprehensive Basic Policy, the methods to evaluate magnitude of earthquakes, to predict strong ground motion, and to construct underground structure were investigated in the Earthquake Research Committee and its subcommittees. In order to predict the magnitude of earthquakes occurring on mega-fault systems, we examined the scaling relations for mega-fault systems using 11 earthquakes of which source processes were analyzed by waveform inversion and of which surface information was investigated. As a result, we found that the data fit in between the scaling relations of seismic moment and rupture area by Somerville et al. (1999) and Irikura and Miyake (2001). We also found that maximum displacement of surface rupture is two to three times larger than the average slip on the seismic fault and surface fault length is equal to length of the source fault. Furthermore, compiled data of the source fault shows that displacement saturates at 10m when fault length(L) is beyond 100km, L>100km. By assuming the fault width (W) to be 18km in average of inland earthquakes in Japan, and the displacement saturate at 10m for length of more than 100 km, we derived a new scaling relation between source area and seismic moment, S[km^2] = 1.0 x 10^-17 M0 [Nm] for mega-fault systems that seismic moment (M0) exceeds 1.8×10^20 Nm.

Fault rupture process and strong ground motion simulation of the 2014/04/01 Northern Chile (Pisagua) earthquake (Mw8.2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido Hernandez, N. E.; Suzuki, W.; Aoi, S.

2014-12-01

A megathrust earthquake occurred in Northern Chile in April 1, 2014, 23:46 (UTC) (Mw 8.2), in a region that had not experienced a major earthquake since the great 1877 (~M8.6) event. This area had been already identified as a mature seismic gap with a strong interseismic coupling inferred from geodetic measurements (Chlieh et al., JGR, 2011 and Metois et al., GJI, 2013). We used 48 components of strong motion records belonging to the IPOC network in Northern Chile to investigate the source process of the M8.2 Pisagua earthquake. Acceleration waveforms were integrated to get velocities and filtered between 0.02 and 0.125 Hz. We assumed a single fault plane segment with an area of 180 km by 135 km, a strike of 357, and a dip of 18 degrees (GCMT). We set the starting point of rupture at the USGS hypocenter (19.610S, 70.769W, depth 25km), and employed a multi-time-window linear waveform inversion method (Hartzell and Heaton, BSSA, 1983), to derive the rupture process of the Pisagua earthquake. Our results show a slip model characterized by one large slip area (asperity) localized 50 km south of the epicenter, a peak slip of 10 m and a total seismic moment of 2.36 x 1021Nm (Mw 8.2). Fault rupture slowly propagated to the south in front of the main asperity for the initial 25 seconds, and broke it by producing a strong acceleration stage. The fault plane rupture velocity was in average 2.9 km/s. Our calculations show an average stress drop of 4.5MPa for the entire fault rupture area and 12MPa for the asperity area. We simulated the near-source strong ground motion records in a broad frequency band (0.1 ~ 20 Hz), to investigate a possible multi-frequency fault rupture process as the one observed in recent mega-thrust earthquakes such as the 2011 Tohoku-oki (M9.0). Acknowledgments Strong motion data was kindly provided by Chile University as well as the IPOC (Integrated Plate boundary Observatory Chile).

Analysis of ground-motion simulation big data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maeda, T.; Fujiwara, H.

2016-12-01

We developed a parallel distributed processing system which applies a big data analysis to the large-scale ground motion simulation data. The system uses ground-motion index values and earthquake scenario parameters as input. We used peak ground velocity value and velocity response spectra as the ground-motion index. The ground-motion index values are calculated from our simulation data. We used simulated long-period ground motion waveforms at about 80,000 meshes calculated by a three dimensional finite difference method based on 369 earthquake scenarios of a great earthquake in the Nankai Trough. These scenarios were constructed by considering the uncertainty of source model parameters such as source area, rupture starting point, asperity location, rupture velocity, fmax and slip function. We used these parameters as the earthquake scenario parameter. The system firstly carries out the clustering of the earthquake scenario in each mesh by the k-means method. The number of clusters is determined in advance using a hierarchical clustering by the Ward's method. The scenario clustering results are converted to the 1-D feature vector. The dimension of the feature vector is the number of scenario combination. If two scenarios belong to the same cluster the component of the feature vector is 1, and otherwise the component is 0. The feature vector shows a `response' of mesh to the assumed earthquake scenario group. Next, the system performs the clustering of the mesh by k-means method using the feature vector of each mesh previously obtained. Here the number of clusters is arbitrarily given. The clustering of scenarios and meshes are performed by parallel distributed processing with Hadoop and Spark, respectively. In this study, we divided the meshes into 20 clusters. The meshes in each cluster are geometrically concentrated. Thus this system can extract regions, in which the meshes have similar `response', as clusters. For each cluster, it is possible to determine particular scenario parameters which characterize the cluster. In other word, by utilizing this system, we can obtain critical scenario parameters of the ground-motion simulation for each evaluation point objectively. This research was supported by CREST, JST.

Real-time earthquake monitoring using a search engine method

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jie; Zhang, Haijiang; Chen, Enhong; Zheng, Yi; Kuang, Wenhuan; Zhang, Xiong

2014-01-01

When an earthquake occurs, seismologists want to use recorded seismograms to infer its location, magnitude and source-focal mechanism as quickly as possible. If such information could be determined immediately, timely evacuations and emergency actions could be undertaken to mitigate earthquake damage. Current advanced methods can report the initial location and magnitude of an earthquake within a few seconds, but estimating the source-focal mechanism may require minutes to hours. Here we present an earthquake search engine, similar to a web search engine, that we developed by applying a computer fast search method to a large seismogram database to find waveforms that best fit the input data. Our method is several thousand times faster than an exact search. For an Mw 5.9 earthquake on 8 March 2012 in Xinjiang, China, the search engine can infer the earthquake’s parameters in <1 s after receiving the long-period surface wave data. PMID:25472861

Seismic hazard analysis for Jayapura city, Papua

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robiana, R.; Cipta, A.

2015-04-01

Jayapura city had destructive earthquake which occurred on June 25, 1976 with the maximum intensity VII MMI scale. Probabilistic methods are used to determine the earthquake hazard by considering all possible earthquakes that can occur in this region. Earthquake source models using three types of source models are subduction model; comes from the New Guinea Trench subduction zone (North Papuan Thrust), fault models; derived from fault Yapen, TareraAiduna, Wamena, Memberamo, Waipago, Jayapura, and Jayawijaya, and 7 background models to accommodate unknown earthquakes. Amplification factor using geomorphological approaches are corrected by the measurement data. This data is related to rock type and depth of soft soil. Site class in Jayapura city can be grouped into classes B, C, D and E, with the amplification between 0.5 - 6. Hazard maps are presented with a 10% probability of earthquake occurrence within a period of 500 years for the dominant periods of 0.0, 0.2, and 1.0 seconds.

Analysis and selection of magnitude relations for the Working Group on Utah Earthquake Probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duross, Christopher; Olig, Susan; Schwartz, David

2015-01-01

Prior to calculating time-independent and -dependent earthquake probabilities for faults in the Wasatch Front region, the Working Group on Utah Earthquake Probabilities (WGUEP) updated a seismic-source model for the region (Wong and others, 2014) and evaluated 19 historical regressions on earthquake magnitude (M). These regressions relate M to fault parameters for historical surface-faulting earthquakes, including linear fault length (e.g., surface-rupture length [SRL] or segment length), average displacement, maximum displacement, rupture area, seismic moment (Mo ), and slip rate. These regressions show that significant epistemic uncertainties complicate the determination of characteristic magnitude for fault sources in the Basin and Range Province (BRP). For example, we found that M estimates (as a function of SRL) span about 0.3–0.4 units (figure 1) owing to differences in the fault parameter used; age, quality, and size of historical earthquake databases; and fault type and region considered.

Time dependent data, time independent models: challenges of updating Australia's National Seismic Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffin, J.; Clark, D.; Allen, T.; Ghasemi, H.; Leonard, M.

2017-12-01

Standard probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) simulates earthquake occurrence as a time-independent process. However paleoseismic studies in slowly deforming regions such as Australia show compelling evidence that large earthquakes on individual faults cluster within active periods, followed by long periods of quiescence. Therefore the instrumental earthquake catalog, which forms the basis of PSHA earthquake recurrence calculations, may only capture the state of the system over the period of the catalog. Together this means that data informing our PSHA may not be truly time-independent. This poses challenges in developing PSHAs for typical design probabilities (such as 10% in 50 years probability of exceedance): Is the present state observed through the instrumental catalog useful for estimating the next 50 years of earthquake hazard? Can paleo-earthquake data, that shows variations in earthquake frequency over time-scales of 10,000s of years or more, be robustly included in such PSHA models? Can a single PSHA logic tree be useful over a range of different probabilities of exceedance? In developing an updated PSHA for Australia, decadal-scale data based on instrumental earthquake catalogs (i.e. alternative area based source models and smoothed seismicity models) is integrated with paleo-earthquake data through inclusion of a fault source model. Use of time-dependent non-homogeneous Poisson models allows earthquake clustering to be modeled on fault sources with sufficient paleo-earthquake data. This study assesses the performance of alternative models by extracting decade-long segments of the instrumental catalog, developing earthquake probability models based on the remaining catalog, and testing performance against the extracted component of the catalog. Although this provides insights into model performance over the short-term, for longer timescales it is recognised that model choice is subject to considerable epistemic uncertainty. Therefore a formal expert elicitation process has been used to assign weights to alternative models for the 2018 update to Australia's national PSHA.

76 FR 78015 - Announcing the Award of a Single-Source Grant to Support Services for Haitian Medical Evacuees to...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-15

... Single-Source Grant to Support Services for Haitian Medical Evacuees to the Florida Department of...: Notice to award a single-source grant to support medical evacuees from the Haiti earthquake of 2010. CFDA... supportive social services to Haitian medical evacuees affected by the earthquake in 2010. The Haitian...

Numerical simulation analysis on Wenchuan seismic strong motion in Hanyuan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Gao, M.; Guo, J.; Li, Z.; Li, T.

2015-12-01

69227 deaths, 374643 injured, 17923 people missing, direct economic losses 845.1 billion, and a large number houses collapse were caused by Wenchuan Ms8 earthquake in Sichuan Province on May 12, 2008, how to reproduce characteristics of its strong ground motion and predict its intensity distribution, which have important role to mitigate disaster of similar giant earthquake in the future. Taking Yunnan-Sichuan Province, Wenchuan town, Chengdu city, Chengdu basin and its vicinity as the research area, on the basis of the available three-dimensional velocity structure model and newly topography data results from ChinaArray of Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, 2 type complex source rupture process models with the global and local source parameters are established, we simulated the seismic wave propagation of Wenchuan Ms8 earthquake throughout the whole three-dimensional region by the GMS discrete grid finite-difference techniques with Cerjan absorbing boundary conditions, and obtained the seismic intensity distribution in this region through analyzing 50×50 stations data (simulated ground motion output station). The simulated results indicated that: (1)Simulated Wenchuan earthquake ground motion (PGA) response and the main characteristics of the response spectrum are very similar to those of the real Wenchuan earthquake records. (2)Wenchuan earthquake ground motion (PGA) and the response spectra of the Plain are much greater than that of the left Mountain area because of the low velocity of the shallow surface media and the basin effect of the Chengdu basin structure. Simultaneously, (3) the source rupture process (inversion) with far-field P-wave, GPS data and InSAR information and the Longmenshan Front Fault (source rupture process) are taken into consideration in GMS numerical simulation, significantly different waveform and frequency component of the ground motion are obtained, though the strong motion waveform is distinct asymmetric, which should be much more real. It indicated that the Longmenshan Front Fault may be also involved in seismic activity during the long time(several minutes) Wenchuan earthquake process. (4) Simulated earthquake records in Hanyuan region are indeed very strong, which reveals source mechanism is one reason of Hanyuan intensity abnormaly.

Towards real-time regional earthquake simulation I: real-time moment tensor monitoring (RMT) for regional events in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Shiann-Jong; Liang, Wen-Tzong; Cheng, Hui-Wen; Tu, Feng-Shan; Ma, Kuo-Fong; Tsuruoka, Hiroshi; Kawakatsu, Hitoshi; Huang, Bor-Shouh; Liu, Chun-Chi

2014-01-01

We have developed a real-time moment tensor monitoring system (RMT) which takes advantage of a grid-based moment tensor inversion technique and real-time broad-band seismic recordings to automatically monitor earthquake activities in the vicinity of Taiwan. The centroid moment tensor (CMT) inversion technique and a grid search scheme are applied to obtain the information of earthquake source parameters, including the event origin time, hypocentral location, moment magnitude and focal mechanism. All of these source parameters can be determined simultaneously within 117 s after the occurrence of an earthquake. The monitoring area involves the entire Taiwan Island and the offshore region, which covers the area of 119.3°E to 123.0°E and 21.0°N to 26.0°N, with a depth from 6 to 136 km. A 3-D grid system is implemented in the monitoring area with a uniform horizontal interval of 0.1° and a vertical interval of 10 km. The inversion procedure is based on a 1-D Green's function database calculated by the frequency-wavenumber (fk) method. We compare our results with the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) catalogue data for earthquakes occurred between 2010 and 2012. The average differences between event origin time and hypocentral location are less than 2 s and 10 km, respectively. The focal mechanisms determined by RMT are also comparable with the Broadband Array in Taiwan for Seismology (BATS) CMT solutions. These results indicate that the RMT system is realizable and efficient to monitor local seismic activities. In addition, the time needed to obtain all the point source parameters is reduced substantially compared to routine earthquake reports. By connecting RMT with a real-time online earthquake simulation (ROS) system, all the source parameters will be forwarded to the ROS to make the real-time earthquake simulation feasible. The RMT has operated offline (2010-2011) and online (since January 2012 to present) at the Institute of Earth Sciences (IES), Academia Sinica (http://rmt.earth.sinica.edu.tw). The long-term goal of this system is to provide real-time source information for rapid seismic hazard assessment during large earthquakes.

Combining Multiple Rupture Models in Real-Time for Earthquake Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minson, S. E.; Wu, S.; Beck, J. L.; Heaton, T. H.

2015-12-01

The ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system for the west coast of the United States is designed to combine information from multiple independent earthquake analysis algorithms in order to provide the public with robust predictions of shaking intensity at each user's location before they are affected by strong shaking. The current contributing analyses come from algorithms that determine the origin time, epicenter, and magnitude of an earthquake (On-site, ElarmS, and Virtual Seismologist). A second generation of algorithms will provide seismic line source information (FinDer), as well as geodetically-constrained slip models (BEFORES, GPSlip, G-larmS, G-FAST). These new algorithms will provide more information about the spatial extent of the earthquake rupture and thus improve the quality of the resulting shaking forecasts.Each of the contributing algorithms exploits different features of the observed seismic and geodetic data, and thus each algorithm may perform differently for different data availability and earthquake source characteristics. Thus the ShakeAlert system requires a central mediator, called the Central Decision Module (CDM). The CDM acts to combine disparate earthquake source information into one unified shaking forecast. Here we will present a new design for the CDM that uses a Bayesian framework to combine earthquake reports from multiple analysis algorithms and compares them to observed shaking information in order to both assess the relative plausibility of each earthquake report and to create an improved unified shaking forecast complete with appropriate uncertainties. We will describe how these probabilistic shaking forecasts can be used to provide each user with a personalized decision-making tool that can help decide whether or not to take a protective action (such as opening fire house doors or stopping trains) based on that user's distance to the earthquake, vulnerability to shaking, false alarm tolerance, and time required to act.

Global Seismic Cross-Correlation Results: Characterizing Repeating Seismic Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieceli, R.; Dodge, D. A.; Walter, W. R.

2016-12-01

Increases in seismic instrument quality and coverage have led to increased knowledge of earthquakes, but have also revealed the complex and diverse nature of earthquake ruptures. Nonetheless, some earthquakes are sufficiently similar to each other that they produce correlated waveforms. Such repeating events have been used to investigate interplate coupling of subduction zones [e.g. Igarashi, 2010; Yu, 2013], study spatio-temporal changes in slip rate at plate boundaries [e.g. Igarashi et al., 2003], observe variations in seismic wave propagation velocities in the crust [e.g. Schaff and Beroza, 2004; Sawazaki et al., 2015], and assess inner core rotation [e.g. Yu, 2016]. The characterization of repeating events on a global scale remains a very challenging problem. An initial global seismic cross-correlation study used over 310 million waveforms from nearly 3.8 million events recorded between 1970 and 2013 to determine an initial look at global correlated seismicity [Dodge and Walter, 2015]. In this work, we analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of the most highly correlated event clusters or "multiplets" from the Dodge and Walter [2015] study. We examine how the distributions and characteristics of multiplets are effected by tectonic environment, source-station separation, and frequency band. Preliminary results suggest that the distribution of multiplets does not correspond to the tectonic environment in any obvious way, nor do they always coincide with the occurrence of large earthquakes. Future work will focus on clustering correlated pairs and working to reduce the bias introduced by non-uniform seismic station coverage and data availability. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

The Mw=8.8 Maule earthquake aftershock sequence, event catalog and locations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meltzer, A.; Benz, H.; Brown, L.; Russo, R. M.; Beck, S. L.; Roecker, S. W.

2011-12-01

The aftershock sequence of the Mw=8.8 Maule earthquake off the coast of Chile in February 2010 is one of the most well-recorded aftershock sequences from a great megathrust earthquake. Immediately following the Maule earthquake, teams of geophysicists from Chile, France, Germany, Great Britain and the United States coordinated resources to capture aftershocks and other seismic signals associated with this significant earthquake. In total, 91 broadband, 48 short period, and 25 accelerometers stations were deployed above the rupture zone of the main shock from 33-38.5°S and from the coast to the Andean range front. In order to integrate these data into a unified catalog, the USGS National Earthquake Information Center develop procedures to use their real-time seismic monitoring system (Bulletin Hydra) to detect, associate, location and compute earthquake source parameters from these stations. As a first step in the process, the USGS has built a seismic catalog of all M3.5 or larger earthquakes for the time period of the main aftershock deployment from March 2010-October 2010. The catalog includes earthquake locations, magnitudes (Ml, Mb, Mb_BB, Ms, Ms_BB, Ms_VX, Mc), associated phase readings and regional moment tensor solutions for most of the M4 or larger events. Also included in the catalog are teleseismic phases and amplitude measures and body-wave MT and CMT solutions for the larger events, typically M5.5 and larger. Tuning of automated detection and association parameters should allow a complete catalog of events to approximately M2.5 or larger for that dataset of more than 164 stations. We characterize the aftershock sequence in terms of magnitude, frequency, and location over time. Using the catalog locations and travel times as a starting point we use double difference techniques to investigate relative locations and earthquake clustering. In addition, phase data from candidate ground truth events and modeling of surface waves can be used to calibrate the velocity structure of central Chile to improve the real-time monitoring.

Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Braced Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mourhatch, Ramses

This thesis examines collapse risk of tall steel braced frame buildings using rupture-to-rafters simulations due to suite of San Andreas earthquakes. Two key advancements in this work are the development of (i) a rational methodology for assigning scenario earthquake probabilities and (ii) an artificial correction-free approach to broadband ground motion simulation. The work can be divided into the following sections: earthquake source modeling, earthquake probability calculations, ground motion simulations, building response, and performance analysis. As a first step the kinematic source inversions of past earthquakes in the magnitude range of 6-8 are used to simulate 60 scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. For each scenario earthquake a 30-year occurrence probability is calculated and we present a rational method to redistribute the forecast earthquake probabilities from UCERF to the simulated scenario earthquake. We illustrate the inner workings of the method through an example involving earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in southern California. Next, three-component broadband ground motion histories are computed at 636 sites in the greater Los Angeles metropolitan area by superposing short-period (0.2s-2.0s) empirical Green's function synthetics on top of long-period (> 2.0s) spectral element synthetics. We superimpose these seismograms on low-frequency seismograms, computed from kinematic source models using the spectral element method, to produce broadband seismograms. Using the ground motions at 636 sites for the 60 scenario earthquakes, 3-D nonlinear analysis of several variants of an 18-story steel braced frame building, designed for three soil types using the 1994 and 1997 Uniform Building Code provisions and subjected to these ground motions, are conducted. Model performance is classified into one of five performance levels: Immediate Occupancy, Life Safety, Collapse Prevention, Red-Tagged, and Model Collapse. The results are combined with the 30-year probability of occurrence of the San Andreas scenario earthquakes using the PEER performance based earthquake engineering framework to determine the probability of exceedance of these limit states over the next 30 years.

Accurate estimation of seismic source parameters of induced seismicity by a combined approach of generalized inversion and genetic algorithm: Application to The Geysers geothermal area, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Picozzi, M.; Oth, A.; Parolai, S.; Bindi, D.; De Landro, G.; Amoroso, O.

2017-05-01

The accurate determination of stress drop, seismic efficiency, and how source parameters scale with earthquake size is an important issue for seismic hazard assessment of induced seismicity. We propose an improved nonparametric, data-driven strategy suitable for monitoring induced seismicity, which combines the generalized inversion technique together with genetic algorithms. In the first step of the analysis the generalized inversion technique allows for an effective correction of waveforms for attenuation and site contributions. Then, the retrieved source spectra are inverted by a nonlinear sensitivity-driven inversion scheme that allows accurate estimation of source parameters. We therefore investigate the earthquake source characteristics of 633 induced earthquakes (Mw 2-3.8) recorded at The Geysers geothermal field (California) by a dense seismic network (i.e., 32 stations, more than 17.000 velocity records). We find a nonself-similar behavior, empirical source spectra that require an ωγ source model with γ > 2 to be well fit and small radiation efficiency ηSW. All these findings suggest different dynamic rupture processes for smaller and larger earthquakes and that the proportion of high-frequency energy radiation and the amount of energy required to overcome the friction or for the creation of new fractures surface changes with earthquake size. Furthermore, we observe also two distinct families of events with peculiar source parameters that in one case suggests the reactivation of deep structures linked to the regional tectonics, while in the other supports the idea of an important role of steeply dipping faults in the fluid pressure diffusion.

Observed ground-motion variabilities and implication for source properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cotton, F.; Bora, S. S.; Bindi, D.; Specht, S.; Drouet, S.; Derras, B.; Pina-Valdes, J.

2016-12-01

One of the key challenges of seismology is to be able to calibrate and analyse the physical factors that control earthquake and ground-motion variabilities. Within the framework of empirical ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) developments, ground-motions residuals (differences between recorded ground motions and the values predicted by a GMPE) are computed. The exponential growth of seismological near-field records and modern regression algorithms allow to decompose these residuals into between-event and a within-event residual components. The between-event term quantify all the residual effects of the source (e.g. stress-drops) which are not accounted by magnitude term as the only source parameter of the model. Between-event residuals provide a new and rather robust way to analyse the physical factors that control earthquake source properties and associated variabilities. We first will show the correlation between classical stress-drops and between-event residuals. We will also explain why between-event residuals may be a more robust way (compared to classical stress-drop analysis) to analyse earthquake source-properties. We will finally calibrate between-events variabilities using recent high-quality global accelerometric datasets (NGA-West 2, RESORCE) and datasets from recent earthquakes sequences (Aquila, Iquique, Kunamoto). The obtained between-events variabilities will be used to evaluate the variability of earthquake stress-drops but also the variability of source properties which cannot be explained by a classical Brune stress-drop variations. We will finally use the between-event residual analysis to discuss regional variations of source properties, differences between aftershocks and mainshocks and potential magnitude dependencies of source characteristics.

Real-time earthquake source imaging: An offline test for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yong; Wang, Rongjiang; Zschau, Jochen; Parolai, Stefano; Dahm, Torsten

2014-05-01

In recent decades, great efforts have been expended in real-time seismology aiming at earthquake and tsunami early warning. One of the most important issues is the real-time assessment of earthquake rupture processes using near-field seismogeodetic networks. Currently, earthquake early warning systems are mostly based on the rapid estimate of P-wave magnitude, which contains generally large uncertainties and the known saturation problem. In the case of the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake, JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) released the first warning of the event with M7.2 after 25 s. The following updates of the magnitude even decreased to M6.3-6.6. Finally, the magnitude estimate stabilized at M8.1 after about two minutes. This led consequently to the underestimated tsunami heights. By using the newly developed Iterative Deconvolution and Stacking (IDS) method for automatic source imaging, we demonstrate an offline test for the real-time analysis of the strong-motion and GPS seismograms of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The results show that we had been theoretically able to image the complex rupture process of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake automatically soon after or even during the rupture process. In general, what had happened on the fault could be robustly imaged with a time delay of about 30 s by using either the strong-motion (KiK-net) or the GPS (GEONET) real-time data. This implies that the new real-time source imaging technique is helpful to reduce false and missing warnings, and therefore should play an important role in future tsunami early warning and earthquake rapid response systems.

High-Resolution Attenuation Model for Gujarat: State of Western India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaiswal, N.; Singh, C.; Prajapati, S.

2016-12-01

In India, Gujarat belongs to the highest seismicity zone other than Himalayan belts. It has suffered from great economic and social loss due to many large magnitude earthquakes in the past. Thus the area needs a special attention from the seismic hazard point of view. It is the state of intraplate earthquakes similar to New Madrid Seismic zone in the United States. In the present study we have prepared a Lg attenuation tomographic model for Gujarat. The study also employs the other complementary information to get a detailed understanding into the mechanisms of attenuation. It will be useful in seismic hazard risk study and in estimating the source parameters of earthquakes. The amplitude of Lg wave is sensitive to different tectonic structures like faults, mountains and ocean basins. It travels predominantly through the continental crust but does not travel across ocean basins. Fifteen earthquakes of Mb >5 recorded at 40 stations operated in the region are chosen for the initial LgQ measurement using the standard two-station method. Finally, 5 events with 70 high-quality inter-station paths are selected from 117 possible pairs that are (1) aligned approximately with the source and (2) separated enough to permit the use of the standard two-station method for LgQ estimation. By using these values of Q0 (1 Hz LgQ) as input, an inversion is performed to have a Lg Q model for the region. A drastic spatial variation in Q0 has been noticed across our study region. Kutch, Jamnagar area are characterized by lowest Q0 values (<50) and south-east region of Saurashtra peninsula shows high Q0 (>300). These variations could be correlated with thermal effects, petrophysical properties and heterogeneity present in the crust.

Two-receiver measurements of phase velocity: cross-validation of ambient-noise and earthquake-based observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kästle, Emanuel D.; Soomro, Riaz; Weemstra, Cornelis; Boschi, Lapo; Meier, Thomas

2016-12-01

Phase velocities derived from ambient-noise cross-correlation are compared with phase velocities calculated from cross-correlations of waveform recordings of teleseismic earthquakes whose epicentres are approximately on the station-station great circle. The comparison is conducted both for Rayleigh and Love waves using over 1000 station pairs in central Europe. We describe in detail our signal-processing method which allows for automated processing of large amounts of data. Ambient-noise data are collected in the 5-80 s period range, whereas teleseismic data are available between about 8 and 250 s, resulting in a broad common period range between 8 and 80 s. At intermediate periods around 30 s and for shorter interstation distances, phase velocities measured from ambient noise are on average between 0.5 per cent and 1.5 per cent lower than those observed via the earthquake-based method. This discrepancy is small compared to typical phase-velocity heterogeneities (10 per cent peak-to-peak or more) observed in this period range.We nevertheless conduct a suite of synthetic tests to evaluate whether known biases in ambient-noise cross-correlation measurements could account for this discrepancy; we specifically evaluate the effects of heterogeneities in source distribution, of azimuthal anisotropy in surface-wave velocity and of the presence of near-field, rather than far-field only, sources of seismic noise. We find that these effects can be quite important comparing individual station pairs. The systematic discrepancy is presumably due to a combination of factors, related to differences in sensitivity of earthquake versus noise data to lateral heterogeneity. The data sets from both methods are used to create some preliminary tomographic maps that are characterized by velocity heterogeneities of similar amplitude and pattern, confirming the overall agreement between the two measurement methods.

Near-Field Tsunami Models with Rapid Earthquake Source Inversions from Land and Ocean-Based Observations: The Potential for Forecast and Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melgar, D.; Bock, Y.; Crowell, B. W.; Haase, J. S.

2013-12-01

Computation of predicted tsunami wave heights and runup in the regions adjacent to large earthquakes immediately after rupture initiation remains a challenging problem. Limitations of traditional seismological instrumentation in the near field which cannot be objectively employed for real-time inversions and the non-unique source inversion results are a major concern for tsunami modelers. Employing near-field seismic, GPS and wave gauge data from the Mw 9.0 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we test the capacity of static finite fault slip models obtained from newly developed algorithms to produce reliable tsunami forecasts. First we demonstrate the ability of seismogeodetic source models determined from combined land-based GPS and strong motion seismometers to forecast near-source tsunamis in ~3 minutes after earthquake origin time (OT). We show that these models, based on land-borne sensors only tend to underestimate the tsunami but are good enough to provide a realistic first warning. We then demonstrate that rapid ingestion of offshore shallow water (100 - 1000 m) wave gauge data significantly improves the model forecasts and possible warnings. We ingest data from 2 near-source ocean-bottom pressure sensors and 6 GPS buoys into the earthquake source inversion process. Tsunami Green functions (tGFs) are generated using the GeoClaw package, a benchmarked finite volume code with adaptive mesh refinement. These tGFs are used for a joint inversion with the land-based data and substantially improve the earthquake source and tsunami forecast. Model skill is assessed by detailed comparisons of the simulation output to 2000+ tsunami runup survey measurements collected after the event. We update the source model and tsunami forecast and warning at 10 min intervals. We show that by 20 min after OT the tsunami is well-predicted with a high variance reduction to the survey data and by ~30 minutes a model that can be considered final, since little changed is observed afterwards, is achieved. This is an indirect approach to tsunami warning, it relies on automatic determination of the earthquake source prior to tsunami simulation. It is more robust than ad-hoc approaches because it relies on computation of a finite-extent centroid moment tensor to objectively determine the style of faulting and the fault plane geometry on which to launch the heterogeneous static slip inversion. Operator interaction and physical assumptions are minimal. Thus, the approach can provide the initial conditions for tsunami simulation (seafloor motion) irrespective of the type of earthquake source and relies heavily on oceanic wave gauge measurements for source determination. It reliably distinguishes among strike-slip, normal and thrust faulting events, all of which have been observed recently to occur in subduction zones and pose distinct tsunami hazards.

Seismogeodesy and Rapid Earthquake and Tsunami Source Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melgar Moctezuma, Diego

This dissertation presents an optimal combination algorithm for strong motion seismograms and regional high rate GPS recordings. This seismogeodetic solution produces estimates of ground motion that recover the whole seismic spectrum, from the permanent deformation to the Nyquist frequency of the accelerometer. This algorithm will be demonstrated and evaluated through outdoor shake table tests and recordings of large earthquakes, notably the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake and the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-oki events. This dissertations will also show that strong motion velocity and displacement data obtained from the seismogeodetic solution can be instrumental to quickly determine basic parameters of the earthquake source. We will show how GPS and seismogeodetic data can produce rapid estimates of centroid moment tensors, static slip inversions, and most importantly, kinematic slip inversions. Throughout the dissertation special emphasis will be placed on how to compute these source models with minimal interaction from a network operator. Finally we will show that the incorporation of off-shore data such as ocean-bottom pressure and RTK-GPS buoys can better-constrain the shallow slip of large subduction events. We will demonstrate through numerical simulations of tsunami propagation that the earthquake sources derived from the seismogeodetic and ocean-based sensors is detailed enough to provide a timely and accurate assessment of expected tsunami intensity immediately following a large earthquake.

Localizing Submarine Earthquakes by Listening to the Water Reverberations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castillo, J.; Zhan, Z.; Wu, W.

2017-12-01

Mid-Ocean Ridge (MOR) earthquakes generally occur far from any land based station and are of moderate magnitude, making it complicated to detect and in most cases, locate accurately. This limits our understanding of how MOR normal and transform faults move and the manner in which they slip. Different from continental events, seismic records from earthquakes occurring beneath the ocean floor show complex reverberations caused by P-wave energy trapped in the water column that are highly dependent of the source location and the efficiency to which energy propagated to the near-source surface. These later arrivals are commonly considered to be only a nuisance as they might sometimes interfere with the primary arrivals. However, in this study, we take advantage of the wavefield's high sensitivity to small changes in the seafloor topography and the present-day availability of worldwide multi-beam bathymetry to relocate submarine earthquakes by modeling these water column reverberations in teleseismic signals. Using a three-dimensional hybrid method for modeling body wave arrivals, we demonstrate that an accurate hypocentral location of a submarine earthquake (<5 km) can be achieved if the structural complexities near the source region are appropriately accounted for. This presents a novel way of studying earthquake source properties and will serve as a means to explore the influence of physical fault structure on the seismic behavior of transform faults.

A geologic guide to Wrangell-Saint Elias National Park and Preserve, Alaska; a tectonic collage of northbound terranes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winkler, Gary R.; with contributions by MacKevett, E. M.; Plafker, George; Richter, D.H.; Rosenkrans, D.S.; Schmoll, H.R.

2000-01-01

Wrangell-Saint Elias National Park and Preserve, the largest unit in the U.S. National Park System, encompasses near 13.2 million acres of geological wonderments. This geologic guide presents history of exploration and Earth-science investigation; describes the complex geologic makeup; characterizes the vast college of accretion geologic terranes in this area of Alaska's continental margin; recapitulates the effects of earthquakes, volcanoes, and glaciers; characterizes the copper and gold resources of the parklands; and describes outstanding locales within the park and preserve area. A glossary of geologic terms and a categorized list of additional sources of information complete this report.

Source complexity and the physical mechanism of the 2015 Mw 7.9 Bonin Island earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Y.; Meng, L.; Wen, L.

2015-12-01

The 30 May 2015 Mw 7.9 Bonin Island earthquake is the largest instrument-recorded deep-focus earthquake in the Izu-Bonin arc. It occurred approximately 100 km deeper than the previous seismicity, in the region unlikely to be within the core of the subducting Izu-Bonin slab. The earthquake provides an unprecedented opportunity to understand the unexpected occurrence of such isolated deep earthquakes. Multiple source inversion of the P, SH, pP and sSH phases and a novel fully three-dimensional back-projection of P and pP phases are applied to study the coseismic source process. The subevents locations and short-period energy radiations both show a L-shape bilateral rupture propagating initially in the SW direction then in the NW direction with an average rupture speed of 2.0 km/s. The decrease of focal depth on the NW branch suggests that the rupture is consistent with a single sub-horizontal plane inferred from the GCMT solution. The multiple source inversion further indicates slight variation of the focal strikes of the sub-events with the curvature of the subducting Izu-Bonin slab. The rupture is confined within an area of 20 km x 35 km, rather compact compared with the shallow earthquake of similar magnitude. The earthquake is of high stress drop on the order of 100 MPa and a low seismic efficiency of 0.19, indicating large frictional heat dissipation. The only aftershock is 11 km to the east of the mainshock hypocenter and 3 km away from the centroid of the first sub-event. Analysis of the regional tomography and nearby seismicity suggests that the earthquake may occur at the edge/periphery of the bending slab and is unlikely to be within the "cold" metastable olivine wedge. Our results suggest the spontaneous nucleation of the thermally induced shear instability is a possible mechanism for such isolated deep earthquakes.

Optimal-adaptive filters for modelling spectral shape, site amplification, and source scaling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Safak, Erdal

1989-01-01

This paper introduces some applications of optimal filtering techniques to earthquake engineering by using the so-called ARMAX models. Three applications are presented: (a) spectral modelling of ground accelerations, (b) site amplification (i.e., the relationship between two records obtained at different sites during an earthquake), and (c) source scaling (i.e., the relationship between two records obtained at a site during two different earthquakes). A numerical example for each application is presented by using recorded ground motions. The results show that the optimal filtering techniques provide elegant solutions to above problems, and can be a useful tool in earthquake engineering.

Palaeoseismological evidence for the 1570 Ferrara earthquake, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caputo, R.; Poli, M. E.; Minarelli, L.; Rapti, D.; Sboras, S.; Stefani, M.; Zanferrari, A.

2016-06-01

In May 2012, two earthquakes (Mw 6.1 and 5.9) affected the Po Plain, Italy. The strongest shock produced extensive secondary effects associated with liquefaction phenomena. Few weeks after the earthquakes, an exploratory trench was excavated across a levee of the palaeo-Reno reach, where a system of aligned ground ruptures was observed. The investigated site well preserves the geomorphic expression of a fluvial body that mainly formed in the fifteenth to sixteenth centuries as historical sources and radiometric data testify. In the trench several features pinpointed the occurrence of past liquefaction events: (i) dikes filled with overpressured injected sand and associated with vertical displacements have no correspondence with the fractures mapped at the surface; (ii) thick dikes are buried by the plowed level or even by fluvial deposits; (iii) although some of the 2012 ground fractures characterized by vertical displacement and opening occurred in correspondence of thick dikes observed in the trench, sand and water ejection did not occur; (iv) some seismites (load casts) were observed in the trench well above the 2012 water level. The results strongly suggest that shaking has locally occurred in the past producing a sufficient ground motion capable of triggering liquefaction phenomena prior to, and likely stronger than, the May 2012 earthquake. Historical seismicity documents three seismic events that might have been able to generate liquefaction in the broader investigated area. Based on the analysis of their macroseismic fields, the 17 November 1570 Ferrara earthquake is the most likely causative event of the observed palaeoliquefactions.

Dense Array Studies of Volcano-Tectonic and Long-Period Earthquakes Beneath Mount St. Helens

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glasgow, M. E.; Hansen, S. M.; Schmandt, B.; Thomas, A.

2017-12-01

A 904 single-component 10-Hz geophone array deployed within 15 km of Mount St. Helens (MSH) in 2014 recorded continuously for two-weeks. Automated reverse-time imaging (RTI) was used to generate a catalog of 212 earthquakes. Among these, two distinct types of upper crustal (<8 km) earthquakes were classified. Volcano-tectonic (VT) and long-period (LP) earthquakes were identified using analysis of array spectrograms, envelope functions, and velocity waveforms. To remove analyst subjectivity, quantitative classification criteria were developed based on the ratio of power in high and low frequency bands and coda duration. Prior to the 2014 experiment, upper crustal LP earthquakes had only been reported at MSH during volcanic activity. Subarray beamforming was used to distinguish between LP earthquakes and surface generated LP signals, such as rockfall. This method confirmed 16 LP signals with horizontal velocities exceeding that of upper crustal P-wave velocities, which requires a subsurface hypocenter. LP and VT locations overlap in a cluster slightly east of the summit crater from 0-5 km below sea level. LP displacement spectra are similar to simple theoretical predictions for shear failure except that they have lower corner frequencies than VT earthquakes of similar magnitude. The results indicate a distinct non-resonant source for LP earthquakes which are located in the same source volume as some VT earthquakes (within hypocenter uncertainty of 1 km or less). To further investigate MSH microseismicity mechanisms, a 142 three-component (3-C) 5 Hz geophone array will record continuously for one month at MSH in Fall 2017 providing a unique dataset for a volcano earthquake source study. This array will help determine if LP occurrence in 2014 was transient or if it is still ongoing. Unlike the 2014 array, approximately 50 geophones will be deployed in the MSH summit crater directly over the majority of seismicity. RTI will be used to detect and locate earthquakes by back-projecting 3-C data with a local 3-D P and S velocity model. Earthquakes will be classified using the previously stated techniques, and we will seek to use the dense array of 3-C waveforms to invert for focal mechanisms and, ideally, moment tensor sources down to M0.

A global earthquake discrimination scheme to optimize ground-motion prediction equation selection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garcia, Daniel; Wald, David J.; Hearne, Michael

2012-01-01

We present a new automatic earthquake discrimination procedure to determine in near-real time the tectonic regime and seismotectonic domain of an earthquake, its most likely source type, and the corresponding ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) class to be used in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Global ShakeMap system. This method makes use of the Flinn–Engdahl regionalization scheme, seismotectonic information (plate boundaries, global geology, seismicity catalogs, and regional and local studies), and the source parameters available from the USGS National Earthquake Information Center in the minutes following an earthquake to give the best estimation of the setting and mechanism of the event. Depending on the tectonic setting, additional criteria based on hypocentral depth, style of faulting, and regional seismicity may be applied. For subduction zones, these criteria include the use of focal mechanism information and detailed interface models to discriminate among outer-rise, upper-plate, interface, and intraslab seismicity. The scheme is validated against a large database of recent historical earthquakes. Though developed to assess GMPE selection in Global ShakeMap operations, we anticipate a variety of uses for this strategy, from real-time processing systems to any analysis involving tectonic classification of sources from seismic catalogs.

Identification and characterization of earthquake clusters: a comparative analysis for selected sequences in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peresan, Antonella; Gentili, Stefania

2017-04-01

Identification and statistical characterization of seismic clusters may provide useful insights about the features of seismic energy release and their relation to physical properties of the crust within a given region. Moreover, a number of studies based on spatio-temporal analysis of main-shocks occurrence require preliminary declustering of the earthquake catalogs. Since various methods, relying on different physical/statistical assumptions, may lead to diverse classifications of earthquakes into main events and related events, we aim to investigate the classification differences among different declustering techniques. Accordingly, a formal selection and comparative analysis of earthquake clusters is carried out for the most relevant earthquakes in North-Eastern Italy, as reported in the local OGS-CRS bulletins, compiled at the National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics since 1977. The comparison is then extended to selected earthquake sequences associated with a different seismotectonic setting, namely to events that occurred in the region struck by the recent Central Italy destructive earthquakes, making use of INGV data. Various techniques, ranging from classical space-time windows methods to ad hoc manual identification of aftershocks, are applied for detection of earthquake clusters. In particular, a statistical method based on nearest-neighbor distances of events in space-time-energy domain, is considered. Results from clusters identification by the nearest-neighbor method turn out quite robust with respect to the time span of the input catalogue, as well as to minimum magnitude cutoff. The identified clusters for the largest events reported in North-Eastern Italy since 1977 are well consistent with those reported in earlier studies, which were aimed at detailed manual aftershocks identification. The study shows that the data-driven approach, based on the nearest-neighbor distances, can be satisfactorily applied to decompose the seismic catalog into background seismicity and individual sequences of earthquake clusters, also in areas characterized by moderate seismic activity, where the standard declustering techniques may turn out rather gross approximations. With these results acquired, the main statistical features of seismic clusters are explored, including complex interdependence of related events, with the aim to characterize the space-time patterns of earthquakes occurrence in North-Eastern Italy and capture their basic differences with Central Italy sequences.

New insights into seismic faulting during the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, H.; Wang, H.; Si, J.; Sun, Z.; Pei, J.; Lei, Z.; He, X.

2017-12-01

The WFSD project was implemented promptly after the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. A series of research results on the seismogenic structure, fault deformation, sliding mechanism and fault healing have been obtained, which provide new insights into seismic faulting and mechanisms of the Wenchuan earthquake. The WFSD-1 and -2 drilling core profiles reveal that the Longmen Shan thrust belt is composed of multiple thrust sheets. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake took place in such tectonic setting with strong horizontal shortening. The two ruptured faults have different deformation mechanisms. The Yingxiu-Beichuan fault (YBF) is a stick-slip fault characterized by fault gouge with high magnetic susceptibility, Guanxian-Anxian fault (GAF) with creeping features and characterized by fault gouge with low magnetic susceptibility. Two PSZs were found in WFSD-1 and -2 cores in the southern segment of YBF. The upper PSZ1 is a low-angle thrust fault characterized by coseisimc graphitization with an extremely low frictional coefficient. The lower PSZ2 is an oblique dextral-slip thrust fault characterized by frictional melt lubrication. In the northern segment of YBF, the PSZ in WFSD-4S cores shows a high-angle thrust feature with fresh melt as well. Therefore, the oblique dextral-slip thrust faulting with frictional melt lubrication is the main faulting of Wenchuan earthquake. Fresh melt with quenching texture was formed in Wenchuan earthquake implying vigorous fluid circulation occurred during the earthquake, which quenched high-temperature melt, hamper the aftermost fault slip and welding seismic fault. Therefore, fluids in the fault zone not only promotes fault weakening, but also suppress slipping in theWenchuan earthquake. The YBF has an extremely high hydraulic diffusivity (2.4×10-2 m2s-1), implying a vigorous fluid circulation in the Wenchuan fault zone. the permeability of YBF has reduced 70% after the shock, reflecting a rapid healing for the YBF. However, the water level has not changed in the WFSD-3 borehole drilled through GAF, indicating an unchanged permeability. These results are of great significance to understanding the seismogenic mechanisms and earthquake cycle for the Wenchuan earthquake.

Near-Fault Broadband Ground Motion Simulations Using Empirical Green's Functions: Application to the Upper Rhine Graben (France-Germany) Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Gaudio, Sergio; Hok, Sebastien; Festa, Gaetano; Causse, Mathieu; Lancieri, Maria

2017-09-01

Seismic hazard estimation relies classically on data-based ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) giving the expected motion level as a function of several parameters characterizing the source and the sites of interest. However, records of moderate to large earthquakes at short distances from the faults are still rare. For this reason, it is difficult to obtain a reliable ground motion prediction for such a class of events and distances where also the largest amount of damage is usually observed. A possible strategy to fill this lack of information is to generate synthetic accelerograms based on an accurate modeling of both extended fault rupture and wave propagation process. The development of such modeling strategies is essential for estimating seismic hazard close to faults in moderate seismic activity zones, where data are even scarcer. For that reason, we selected a target site in Upper Rhine Graben (URG), at the French-German border. URG is a region where faults producing micro-seismic activity are very close to the sites of interest (e.g., critical infrastructures like supply lines, nuclear power plants, etc.) needing a careful investigation of seismic hazard. In this work, we demonstrate the feasibility of performing near-fault broadband ground motion numerical simulations in a moderate seismic activity region such as URG and discuss some of the challenges related to such an application. The modeling strategy is to couple the multi-empirical Green's function technique (multi-EGFt) with a k -2 kinematic source model. One of the advantages of the multi-EGFt is that it does not require a detailed knowledge of the propagation medium since the records of small events are used as the medium transfer function, if, at the target site, records of small earthquakes located on the target fault are available. The selection of suitable events to be used as multi-EGF is detailed and discussed in our specific situation where less number of events are available. We then showed the impact that each source parameter characterizing the k-2 model has on ground motion amplitude. Finally we performed ground motion simulations showing results for different probable earthquake scenarios in the URG. Dependency of ground motions and of their variability are analyzed at different frequencies in respect of rupture velocity, roughness degree of slip distribution (stress drop), and hypocenter location. In near-source conditions, ground motion variability is shown to be mostly governed by the uncertainty on source parameters. In our specific configuration (magnitude, distance), the directivity effect is only observed in a limited frequency range. Rather, broadband ground motions are shown to be sensitive to both average rupture velocity and its possible variability, and to slip roughness. Ending up with a comparison of simulation results and GMPEs, we conclude that source parameters and their variability should be set up carefully to obtain reliable broadband ground motion estimations. In particular, our study shows that slip roughness should be set up in respect of the target stress drop. This entails the need for a better understanding of the physics of earthquake source and its incorporation in the ground motion modeling.

Source parameters of the 2014 Ms6.5 Ludian earthquake sequence and their implications on the seismogenic structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Y.

2015-12-01

On August 3, 2014, an Ms6.5 earthquake struck Ludian county, Zhaotong city in Yunnan province, China. Although this earthquake is not very big, it caused abnormal severe damages. Thus, study on the causes of the serious damages of this moderate strong earthquake may help us to evaluate seismic hazards for similar earthquakes. Besides the factors which directly relate to the damages, such as site effects, quality of buildings, seismogenic structures and the characteristics of the mainshock and the aftershocks may also responsible for the seismic hazards. Since focal mechanism solution and centroid depth provide key information of earthquake source properties and tectonic stress field, and the focal depth is one of the most important parameters which control the damages of earthquakes, obtaining precise FMSs and focal depths of the Ludian earthquake sequence may help us to determine the detailed geometric features of the rupture fault and the seismogenic environment. In this work we obtained the FMSs and centroid depths of the Ludian earthquake and its Ms>3.0 aftershocks by the revised CAP method, and further verified some focal depths using the depth phase method. Combining the FMSs of the mainshock and the strong aftershocks, as well as their spatial distributions, and the seismogenic environment of the source region, we can make the following characteristics of the Ludian earthquake sequence and its seismogenic structure: (1) The Ludian earthquake is a left-lateral strike slip earthquake, with magnitude of about Mw6.1. The FMS of nodal plane I is 75o/56o/180o for strike, dip and rake angles, and 165o/90o/34ofor the other nodal plane. (2) The Ludian earthquake is very shallow with the optimum centroid depth of ~3 km, which is consistent with the strong ground shaking and the surface rupture observed by field survey and strengthens the damages of the Ludian earthquake. (3) The Ludian Earthquake should occur on the NNW trend BXF. Because two later aftershocks occurred close to the fault zone of the ZLF, and their FMSs are similar with the characteristics of the ZLF, the shallower part of the ZLF may also rupture during the aftershock duration of the Ludian earthquake. Since the ZLF is much longer than the BXF, the seismic risk of the ZLF may be high and should be required more attention.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Himalayan-Tibetan Region from Historical and Instrumental Earthquake Catalogs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, M. Moklesur; Bai, Ling; Khan, Nangyal Ghani; Li, Guohui

2018-02-01

The Himalayan-Tibetan region has a long history of devastating earthquakes with wide-spread casualties and socio-economic damages. Here, we conduct the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by incorporating the incomplete historical earthquake records along with the instrumental earthquake catalogs for the Himalayan-Tibetan region. Historical earthquake records back to more than 1000 years ago and an updated, homogenized and declustered instrumental earthquake catalog since 1906 are utilized. The essential seismicity parameters, namely, the mean seismicity rate γ, the Gutenberg-Richter b value, and the maximum expected magnitude M max are estimated using the maximum likelihood algorithm assuming the incompleteness of the catalog. To compute the hazard value, three seismogenic source models (smoothed gridded, linear, and areal sources) and two sets of ground motion prediction equations are combined by means of a logic tree on accounting the epistemic uncertainties. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) at 0.2 and 1.0 s are predicted for 2 and 10% probabilities of exceedance over 50 years assuming bedrock condition. The resulting PGA and SA maps show a significant spatio-temporal variation in the hazard values. In general, hazard value is found to be much higher than the previous studies for regions, where great earthquakes have actually occurred. The use of the historical and instrumental earthquake catalogs in combination of multiple seismogenic source models provides better seismic hazard constraints for the Himalayan-Tibetan region.

Earthquake-driven erosion of organic carbon at the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, G.; West, A. J.; Hara, E. K.; Hammond, D. E.; Hilton, R. G.

2016-12-01

Large earthquakes can trigger massive landsliding that erodes particulate organic carbon (POC) from vegetation, soil and bedrocks, potentially linking seismotectonics to the global carbon cycle. Recent work (Wang et al., 2016, Geology) has highlighted a dramatic increase in riverine export of biospheric POC following the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake, in the steep Longmen Shan mountain range at the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. However, a complete, source-to-sink picture of POC erosion after the earthquake is still missing. Here we track POC transfer across the Longmen Shan range from high mountains to the downstream Zipingpu reservoir where riverine-exported POC has been trapped. Building on the work of Wang et al. (2016), who measured the compositions and fluxes of riverine POC, this study is focused on constraining the source and fate of the eroded POC after the earthquake. We have sampled landslide deposits and river sediment, and we have cored the Zipingpu reservoir, following a source-to-sink sampling strategy. We measured POC compositions and grain size of the sediment samples, mapped landslide-mobilized POC using maps of landslide inventory and biomass, and tracked POC loading from landslides to the reservoir sediment to constrain the fate of eroded OC. Constraints on carbon sources, fluxes and fate provide the foundation for constructing a post-earthquake POC budget. This work highlights the role of earthquakes in the mobilization and burial of POC, providing new insight into mechanisms linking tectonics and the carbon cycle and building understanding needed to interpret past seismicity from sedimentary archives.

A phase coherence approach to identifying co-located earthquakes and tremor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawthorne, J. C.; Ampuero, J.-P.

2018-05-01

We present and use a phase coherence approach to identify seismic signals that have similar path effects but different source time functions: co-located earthquakes and tremor. The method used is a phase coherence-based implementation of empirical matched field processing, modified to suit tremor analysis. It works by comparing the frequency-domain phases of waveforms generated by two sources recorded at multiple stations. We first cross-correlate the records of the two sources at a single station. If the sources are co-located, this cross-correlation eliminates the phases of the Green's function. It leaves the relative phases of the source time functions, which should be the same across all stations so long as the spatial extent of the sources are small compared with the seismic wavelength. We therefore search for cross-correlation phases that are consistent across stations as an indication of co-located sources. We also introduce a method to obtain relative locations between the two sources, based on back-projection of interstation phase coherence. We apply this technique to analyse two tremor-like signals that are thought to be composed of a number of earthquakes. First, we analyse a 20 s long seismic precursor to a M 3.9 earthquake in central Alaska. The analysis locates the precursor to within 2 km of the mainshock, and it identifies several bursts of energy—potentially foreshocks or groups of foreshocks—within the precursor. Second, we examine several minutes of volcanic tremor prior to an eruption at Redoubt Volcano. We confirm that the tremor source is located close to repeating earthquakes identified earlier in the tremor sequence. The amplitude of the tremor diminishes about 30 s before the eruption, but the phase coherence results suggest that the tremor may persist at some level through this final interval.

USGS Tweet Earthquake Dispatch (@USGSted): Using Twitter for Earthquake Detection and Characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, S. B.; Bouchard, B.; Bowden, D. C.; Guy, M.; Earle, P.

2012-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how online social networking services like Twitter—a microblogging service for sending and reading public text-based messages of up to 140 characters—can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. The USGS Tweet Earthquake Dispatch (TED) system is using Twitter not only to broadcast seismically-verified earthquake alerts via the @USGSted and @USGSbigquakes Twitter accounts, but also to rapidly detect widely felt seismic events through a real-time detection system. The detector algorithm scans for significant increases in tweets containing the word "earthquake" or its equivalent in other languages and sends internal alerts with the detection time, tweet text, and the location of the city where most of the tweets originated. It has been running in real-time for 7 months and finds, on average, two or three felt events per day with a false detection rate of less than 10%. The detections have reasonable coverage of populated areas globally. The number of detections is small compared to the number of earthquakes detected seismically, and only a rough location and qualitative assessment of shaking can be determined based on Tweet data alone. However, the Twitter detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The main benefit of the tweet-based detections is speed, with most detections occurring between 19 seconds and 2 minutes from the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. Going beyond the initial detection, the USGS is developing data mining techniques to continuously archive and analyze relevant tweets for additional details about the detected events. The information generated about an event is displayed on a web-based map designed using HTML5 for the mobile environment, which can be valuable when the user is not able to access a desktop computer at the time of the detections. The continuously updating map displays geolocated tweets arriving after the detection and plots epicenters of recent earthquakes. When available, seismograms from nearby stations are displayed as an additional form of verification. A time series of tweets-per-minute is also shown to illustrate the volume of tweets being generated for the detected event. Future additions are being investigated to provide a more in-depth characterization of the seismic events based on an analysis of tweet text and content from other social media sources.

A shallow crustal earthquake doublet from the Trans-Mexican volcanic belt (Central Mexico)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quintanar, L.; Rodríguez-González, M.; Campos-Enríquez, O.

2003-04-01

The trans-Mexican volcanic belt is an active volcanic arc related to subduction along the Middle America trench and characterized by shallow seismicity and synvolcanic to postvolcanic extensional arc-parallel faulting. The Mezquital graben is a major intra-arc basin of the central trans-Mexican volcanic belt. A doublet of moderate shallow shocks occurred in March and October 1976 in the region of this graben. These earthquakes were recorded by the Mexican National Seismological network, in particular by the Bosch-Omori seismograph (T_0 = 18 s) at the Tacubaya Observatory in Mexico City. We have carefully relocated the two main shocks and their major aftershocks by reading the original records and using a modified crustal velocity model for this region. A difference of ˜50 km is observed between the locations reported by the Mexican Seismological Service and those obtained in this study, which are additionally supported by the damage distribution of these earthquakes. A first motion analysis, based on regional and teleseismic records, defines for the March and October shocks normal fault mechanisms, characterized by E-W striking fault planes, which coincides with the orientation of the master faults of the Mezquital graben. After calculating the instrumental response, the source parameters were obtained from the Bosch-Omori seismograph records by body-wave modeling. For the March earthquake, we estimate a seismic moment of 4.5×1023 dyne-cm (equivalent to M_w=5.0) and a stress drop of 0.7 MPa assuming a circular rupture model (radius = 3 km). Given the poor quality of the Bosch-Omori record for the October earthquake, we used the comparison, between both events, of long-period (T=20 sec) teleseismic records at 2 stations to obtain its corresponding source parameters. By assuming a similar stress drop as for the March event, we obtain a M_0 of 5.6×1023 dyne-cm and M_w = 5.1 with a rupture length of 6.5 km. According to gravity data, the regional E-W faults are longer than reported. In particular, our detailed measurements indicate that the master of the Mezquital graben continue westward in the subsurface. In a more regional context, additional magnetic available information points that El Mezquital graben and Aljibes half-graben might be connected, as suggested by other authors, at their northern limits, by part of the same fault system. This is the first earthquake doublet reported from Central Mexico and the biggest seismic event in that zone during the last 50 years. The presence of moderate seismicity in this zone should therefore be taken into account when assessing its seismic hazard.

Tsunami simulation method initiated from waveforms observed by ocean bottom pressure sensors for real-time tsunami forecast; Applied for 2011 Tohoku Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanioka, Yuichiro

2017-04-01

After tsunami disaster due to the 2011 Tohoku-oki great earthquake, improvement of the tsunami forecast has been an urgent issue in Japan. National Institute of Disaster Prevention is installing a cable network system of earthquake and tsunami observation (S-NET) at the ocean bottom along the Japan and Kurile trench. This cable system includes 125 pressure sensors (tsunami meters) which are separated by 30 km. Along the Nankai trough, JAMSTEC already installed and operated the cable network system of seismometers and pressure sensors (DONET and DONET2). Those systems are the most dense observation network systems on top of source areas of great underthrust earthquakes in the world. Real-time tsunami forecast has depended on estimation of earthquake parameters, such as epicenter, depth, and magnitude of earthquakes. Recently, tsunami forecast method has been developed using the estimation of tsunami source from tsunami waveforms observed at the ocean bottom pressure sensors. However, when we have many pressure sensors separated by 30km on top of the source area, we do not need to estimate the tsunami source or earthquake source to compute tsunami. Instead, we can initiate a tsunami simulation from those dense tsunami observed data. Observed tsunami height differences with a time interval at the ocean bottom pressure sensors separated by 30 km were used to estimate tsunami height distribution at a particular time. In our new method, tsunami numerical simulation was initiated from those estimated tsunami height distribution. In this paper, the above method is improved and applied for the tsunami generated by the 2011 Tohoku-oki great earthquake. Tsunami source model of the 2011 Tohoku-oki great earthquake estimated using observed tsunami waveforms, coseimic deformation observed by GPS and ocean bottom sensors by Gusman et al. (2012) is used in this study. The ocean surface deformation is computed from the source model and used as an initial condition of tsunami simulation. By assuming that this computed tsunami is a real tsunami and observed at ocean bottom sensors, new tsunami simulation is carried out using the above method. The station distribution (each station is separated by 15 min., about 30 km) observed tsunami waveforms which were actually computed from the source model. Tsunami height distributions are estimated from the above method at 40, 80, and 120 seconds after the origin time of the earthquake. The Near-field Tsunami Inundation forecast method (Gusman et al. 2014) was used to estimate the tsunami inundation along the Sanriku coast. The result shows that the observed tsunami inundation was well explained by those estimated inundation. This also shows that it takes about 10 minutes to estimate the tsunami inundation from the origin time of the earthquake. This new method developed in this paper is very effective for a real-time tsunami forecast.

Structure-specific scalar intensity measures for near-source and ordinary earthquake ground motions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luco, N.; Cornell, C.A.

2007-01-01

Introduced in this paper are several alternative ground-motion intensity measures (IMs) that are intended for use in assessing the seismic performance of a structure at a site susceptible to near-source and/or ordinary ground motions. A comparison of such IMs is facilitated by defining the "efficiency" and "sufficiency" of an IM, both of which are criteria necessary for ensuring the accuracy of the structural performance assessment. The efficiency and sufficiency of each alternative IM, which are quantified via (i) nonlinear dynamic analyses of the structure under a suite of earthquake records and (ii) linear regression analysis, are demonstrated for the drift response of three different moderate- to long-period buildings subjected to suites of ordinary and of near-source earthquake records. One of the alternative IMs in particular is found to be relatively efficient and sufficient for the range of buildings considered and for both the near-source and ordinary ground motions. ?? 2007, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Database of potential sources for earthquakes larger than magnitude 6 in Northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1996-01-01

The Northern California Earthquake Potential (NCEP) working group, composed of many contributors and reviewers in industry, academia and government, has pooled its collective expertise and knowledge of regional tectonics to identify potential sources of large earthquakes in northern California. We have created a map and database of active faults, both surficial and buried, that forms the basis for the northern California portion of the national map of probabilistic seismic hazard. The database contains 62 potential sources, including fault segments and areally distributed zones. The working group has integrated constraints from broadly based plate tectonic and VLBI models with local geologic slip rates, geodetic strain rate, and microseismicity. Our earthquake source database derives from a scientific consensus that accounts for conflict in the diverse data. Our preliminary product, as described in this report brings to light many gaps in the data, including a need for better information on the proportion of deformation in fault systems that is aseismic.

Source processes of strong earthquakes in the North Tien-Shan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulikova, G.; Krueger, F.

2013-12-01

Tien-Shan region attracts attention of scientists worldwide due to its complexity and tectonic uniqueness. A series of very strong destructive earthquakes occurred in Tien-Shan at the turn of XIX and XX centuries. Such large intraplate earthquakes are rare in seismology, which increases the interest in the Tien-Shan region. The presented study focuses on the source processes of large earthquakes in Tien-Shan. The amount of seismic data is limited for those early times. In 1889, when a major earthquake has occurred in Tien-Shan, seismic instruments were installed in very few locations in the world and these analog records did not survive till nowadays. Although around a hundred seismic stations were operating at the beginning of XIX century worldwide, it is not always possible to get high quality analog seismograms. Digitizing seismograms is a very important step in the work with analog seismic records. While working with historical seismic records one has to take into account all the aspects and uncertainties of manual digitizing and the lack of accurate timing and instrument characteristics. In this study, we develop an easy-to-handle and fast digitization program on the basis of already existing software which allows to speed up digitizing process and to account for all the recoding system uncertainties. Owing to the lack of absolute timing for the historical earthquakes (due to the absence of a universal clock at that time), we used time differences between P and S phases to relocate the earthquakes in North Tien-Shan and the body-wave amplitudes to estimate their magnitudes. Combining our results with geological data, five earthquakes in North Tien-Shan were precisely relocated. The digitizing of records can introduce steps into the seismograms which makes restitution (removal of instrument response) undesirable. To avoid the restitution, we simulated historic seismograph recordings with given values for damping and free period of the respective instrument and compared the amplitude ratios (between P, PP, S and SS) of the real data and the simulated seismograms. At first, the depth and the focal mechanism of the earthquakes were determined based on the amplitude ratios for the point source. Further, on the base of ISOLA software, we developed an application which calculates kinematic source parameters for historical earthquakes without restitution. Based on sub-events approach kinematic source parameters could be determined for a subset of the events. We present the results for five major instrumentally recorded earthquake in North Tien-Shan. The strongest one was the Chon-Kemin earthquake on 3rd January 1911. Its relocated epicenter is 42.98N and 77.33E - 80 kilometer southward from the catalog location. The depth is determined to be 28 km. The obtained focal mechanism shows strike, dip, and slip angles of 44°, 82°,and 56°, respectively. The moment magnitude is calculated to be Mw 8.1. The source time duration is 45 s which gives about 120 km rupture length.

Flash-sourcing or the rapid detection and characterisation of earthquake effects through clickstream data analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bossu, R.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Roussel, F.; Frobert, L.

2011-12-01

Rapid characterisation of earthquake effects is essential for a timely and appropriate response in favour of victims and/or of eyewitnesses. In case of damaging earthquakes, any field observations that can fill the information gap characterising their immediate aftermath can contribute to more efficient rescue operations. This paper presents the last developments of a method called "flash-sourcing" addressing these issues. It relies on eyewitnesses, the first informed and the first concerned by an earthquake occurrence. More precisely, their use of the EMSC earthquake information website (www.emsc-csem.org) is analysed in real time to map the area where the earthquake was felt and identify, at least under certain circumstances zones of widespread damage. The approach is based on the natural and immediate convergence of eyewitnesses on the website who rush to the Internet to investigate cause of the shaking they just felt causing our traffic to increase The area where an earthquake was felt is mapped simply by locating Internet Protocol (IP) addresses during traffic surges. In addition, the presence of eyewitnesses browsing our website within minutes of an earthquake occurrence excludes the possibility of widespread damage in the localities they originate from: in case of severe damage, the networks would be down. The validity of the information derived from this clickstream analysis is confirmed by comparisons with EMS98 macroseismic map obtained from online questionnaires. The name of this approach, "flash-sourcing", is a combination of "flash-crowd" and "crowdsourcing" intending to reflect the rapidity of the data collation from the public. For computer scientists, a flash-crowd names a traffic surge on a website. Crowdsourcing means work being done by a "crowd" of people; It also characterises Internet and mobile applications collecting information from the public such as online macroseismic questionnaires. Like crowdsourcing techniques, flash-sourcing is a crowd-to-agency system, but unlike them it is not based on declarative information (e.g. answers to a questionnaire) but on implicit data, clickstream observed on our website. We present first the main improvements of the method, improved detection of traffic surges, and a way to instantly map areas affected by severe damage or network disruptions. The second part describes how the derived information improves and fastens public earthquake information and, beyond seismology, what it can teach us on public behaviour when facing an earthquake. Finally, the discussion will focus on the future evolutions and how flash-sourcing could ultimately improve earthquake response.

REGIONAL SEISMIC AMPLITUDE MODELING AND TOMOGRAPHY FOR EARTHQUAKE-EXPLOSION DISCRIMINATION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Walter, W R; Pasyanos, M E; Matzel, E

2008-07-08

We continue exploring methodologies to improve earthquake-explosion discrimination using regional amplitude ratios such as P/S in a variety of frequency bands. Empirically we demonstrate that such ratios separate explosions from earthquakes using closely located pairs of earthquakes and explosions recorded on common, publicly available stations at test sites around the world (e.g. Nevada, Novaya Zemlya, Semipalatinsk, Lop Nor, India, Pakistan, and North Korea). We are also examining if there is any relationship between the observed P/S and the point source variability revealed by longer period full waveform modeling (e. g. Ford et al 2008). For example, regional waveform modeling showsmore » strong tectonic release from the May 1998 India test, in contrast with very little tectonic release in the October 2006 North Korea test, but the P/S discrimination behavior appears similar in both events using the limited regional data available. While regional amplitude ratios such as P/S can separate events in close proximity, it is also empirically well known that path effects can greatly distort observed amplitudes and make earthquakes appear very explosion-like. Previously we have shown that the MDAC (Magnitude Distance Amplitude Correction, Walter and Taylor, 2001) technique can account for simple 1-D attenuation and geometrical spreading corrections, as well as magnitude and site effects. However in some regions 1-D path corrections are a poor approximation and we need to develop 2-D path corrections. Here we demonstrate a new 2-D attenuation tomography technique using the MDAC earthquake source model applied to a set of events and stations in both the Middle East and the Yellow Sea Korean Peninsula regions. We believe this new 2-D MDAC tomography has the potential to greatly improve earthquake-explosion discrimination, particularly in tectonically complex regions such as the Middle East. Monitoring the world for potential nuclear explosions requires characterizing seismic events and discriminating between natural and man-made seismic events, such as earthquakes and mining activities, and nuclear weapons testing. We continue developing, testing, and refining size-, distance-, and location-based regional seismic amplitude corrections to facilitate the comparison of all events that are recorded at a particular seismic station. These corrections, calibrated for each station, reduce amplitude measurement scatter and improve discrimination performance. We test the methods on well-known (ground truth) datasets in the U.S. and then apply them to the uncalibrated stations in Eurasia, Africa, and other regions of interest to improve underground nuclear test monitoring capability.« less

Ischia Island: Historical Seismicity and Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlino, S.; Cubellis, E.; Iannuzzi, R.; Luongo, G.; Obrizzo, F.

2003-04-01

The seismic energy release in volcanic areas is a complex process and the island of Ischia provides a significant scenario of historical seismicity. This is characterized by the occurence of earthquakes with low energy and high intensity. Information on the seismicity of the island spans about eight centuries, starting from 1228. With regard to effects, the most recent earthquake of 1883 is extensively documented both in the literature and unpublished sources. The earthquake caused 2333 deaths and the destruction of the historical and environmental heritage of some areas of the island. The most severe damage occurred in Casamicciola. This event, which was the first great catastrophe after the unification of Italy in the 1860s (Imax = XI degree MCS), represents an important date in the prevention of natural disasters, in that it was after this earthquake that the first Seismic Safety Act in Italy was passed by which lower risk zones were identified for new settlements. Thanks to such detailed analysis, reliable modelling of the seismic source was also obtained. The historical data onwards makes it possible to identify the area of the epicenter of all known earthquakes as the northern slope of Monte Epomeo, while analysis of the effects of earthquakes and the geological structures allows us to evaluate the stress fields that generate the earthquakes. In a volcanic area, interpretation of the mechanisms of release and propagation of seismic energy is made even more complex as the stress field that acts at a regional level is compounded by that generated from migration of magmatic masses towards the surface, as well as the rheologic properties of the rocks dependent on the high geothermic gradient. Such structural and dynamic conditions make the island of Ischia a seismic area of considerable interest. It would appear necessary to evaluate the expected damage caused by a new event linked to the renewal of dynamics of the island, where high population density and the high economic value concerned, the island is a tourist destination and holiday resort, increase the seismic risk. A seismic hazard map of the island is proposed according to a comparative analysis of various types of data: the geology, tectonics, historical seismicity and damage caused by the 28 July 1883 Casamicciola earthquake. The analysis was essentially based on a GIS-aided cross-correlation of these data. The GIS is thus able to provide support both for in-depth analysis of the dynamic processes on the island and extend the assessment to other natural risks (volcanic, landslides, flooding, etc.).

Developing seismogenic source models based on geologic fault data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haller, Kathleen M.; Basili, Roberto

2011-01-01

Calculating seismic hazard usually requires input that includes seismicity associated with known faults, historical earthquake catalogs, geodesy, and models of ground shaking. This paper will address the input generally derived from geologic studies that augment the short historical catalog to predict ground shaking at time scales of tens, hundreds, or thousands of years (e.g., SSHAC 1997). A seismogenic source model, terminology we adopt here for a fault source model, includes explicit three-dimensional faults deemed capable of generating ground motions of engineering significance within a specified time frame of interest. In tectonically active regions of the world, such as near plate boundaries, multiple seismic cycles span a few hundred to a few thousand years. In contrast, in less active regions hundreds of kilometers from the nearest plate boundary, seismic cycles generally are thousands to tens of thousands of years long. Therefore, one should include sources having both longer recurrence intervals and possibly older times of most recent rupture in less active regions of the world rather than restricting the model to include only Holocene faults (i.e., those with evidence of large-magnitude earthquakes in the past 11,500 years) as is the practice in tectonically active regions with high deformation rates. During the past 15 years, our institutions independently developed databases to characterize seismogenic sources based on geologic data at a national scale. Our goal here is to compare the content of these two publicly available seismogenic source models compiled for the primary purpose of supporting seismic hazard calculations by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); hereinafter we refer to the two seismogenic source models as INGV and USGS, respectively. This comparison is timely because new initiatives are emerging to characterize seismogenic sources at the continental scale (e.g., SHARE in the Euro-Mediterranean, http://www.share-eu.org/; EMME in the Middle East, http://www.emme-gem.org/) and global scale (e.g., GEM, http://www.globalquakemodel.org/; Anonymous 2008). To some extent, each of these efforts is still trying to resolve the level of optimal detail required for this type of compilation. The comparison we provide defines a common standard for consideration by the international community for future regional and global seismogenic source models by identifying the necessary parameters that capture the essence of geological fault data in order to characterize seismogenic sources. In addition, we inform potential users of differences in our usage of common geological/seismological terms to avoid inappropriate use of the data in our models and provide guidance to convert the data from one model to the other (for detailed instructions, see the electronic supplement to this article). Applying our recommendations will permit probabilistic seismic hazard assessment codes to run seamlessly using either seismogenic source input. The USGS and INGV database schema compare well at a first-level inspection. Both databases contain a set of fields representing generalized fault three-dimensional geometry and additional fields that capture the essence of past earthquake occurrences. Nevertheless, there are important differences. When we further analyze supposedly comparable fields, many are defined differently. These differences would cause anomalous results in hazard prediction if one assumes the values are similarly defined. The data, however, can be made fully compatible using simple transformations.

Source characteristics and geological implications of the January 2016 induced earthquake swarm near Crooked Lake, Alberta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ruijia; Gu, Yu Jeffrey; Schultz, Ryan; Zhang, Miao; Kim, Ahyi

2017-08-01

On 2016 January 12, an intraplate earthquake with an initial reported local magnitude (ML) of 4.8 shook the town of Fox Creek, Alberta. While there were no reported damages, this earthquake was widely felt by the local residents and suspected to be induced by the nearby hydraulic-fracturing (HF) operations. In this study, we determine the earthquake source parameters using moment tensor inversions, and then detect and locate the associated swarm using a waveform cross-correlation based method. The broad-band seismic recordings from regional arrays suggest a moment magnitude (M) 4.1 for this event, which is the largest in Alberta in the past decade. Similar to other recent M ∼ 3 earthquakes near Fox Creek, the 2016 January 12 earthquake exhibits a dominant strike-slip (strike = 184°) mechanism with limited non-double-couple components (∼22 per cent). This resolved focal mechanism, which is also supported by forward modelling and P-wave first motion analysis, indicates an NE-SW oriented compressional axis consistent with the maximum compressive horizontal stress orientations delineated from borehole breakouts. Further detection analysis on industry-contributed recordings unveils 1108 smaller events within 3 km radius of the epicentre of the main event, showing a close spatial-temporal relation to a nearby HF well. The majority of the detected events are located above the basement, comparable to the injection depth (3.5 km) on the Duvernay shale Formation. The spatial distribution of this earthquake cluster further suggests that (1) the source of the sequence is an N-S-striking fault system and (2) these earthquakes were induced by an HF well close to but different from the well that triggered a previous (January 2015) earthquake swarm. Reactivation of pre-existing, N-S oriented faults analogous to the Pine Creek fault zone, which was reported by earlier studies of active source seismic and aeromagnetic data, are likely responsible for the occurrence of the January 2016 earthquake swarm and other recent events in the Crooked Lake area.

Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in the Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey Part3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaneda, Yoshiyuki; Ozener, Haluk; Meral Ozel, Nurcan; Kalafat, Dogan; Ozgur Citak, Seckin; Takahashi, Narumi; Hori, Takane; Hori, Muneo; Sakamoto, Mayumi; Pinar, Ali; Oguz Ozel, Asim; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Tanircan, Gulum; Demirtas, Ahmet

2017-04-01

There have been many destructive earthquakes and tsunamis in the world.The recent events are, 2011 East Japan Earthquake/Tsunami in Japan, 2015 Nepal Earthquake and 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake in Japan, and so on. And very recently a destructive earthquake occurred in Central Italy. In Turkey, the 1999 Izmit Earthquake as the destructive earthquake occurred along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF). The NAF crosses the Sea of Marmara and the only "seismic gap" remains beneath the Sea of Marmara. Istanbul with high population similar to Tokyo in Japan, is located around the Sea of Marmara where fatal damages expected to be generated as compound damages including Tsunami and liquefaction, when the next destructive Marmara Earthquake occurs. The seismic risk of Istanbul seems to be under the similar risk condition as Tokyo in case of Nankai Trough earthquake and metropolitan earthquake. It was considered that Japanese and Turkish researchers can share their own experiences during past damaging earthquakes and can prepare for the future large earthquakes in cooperation with each other. Therefore, in 2013 the two countries, Japan and Turkey made an agreement to start a multidisciplinary research project, MarDiM SATREPS. The Project runs researches to aim to raise the preparedness for possible large-scale earthquake and Tsunami disasters in Marmara Region and it has four research groups with the following goals. 1) The first one is Marmara Earthquake Source region observational research group. This group has 4 sub-groups such as Seismicity, Geodesy, Electromagnetics and Trench analyses. Preliminary results such as seismicity and crustal deformation on the sea floor in Sea of Marmara have already achieved. 2) The second group focuses on scenario researches of earthquake occurrence along the North Anatolia Fault and precise tsunami simulation in the Marmara region. Research results from this group are to be the model of earthquake occurrence scenario in Sea of Marmara and the case studies with advanced tsunami simulation for measure cities. 3) Aims of the third group are improvements and constructions of seismic characterizations and damage predictions based on observation researches and precise simulations. Research results from this group will be very important for disaster measures. 4) The fourth group is promoting disaster educations using research result visuals. The mission of this group is very important for information dissemination and practical and effective disaster education in Turkey. The research results from all components will be integrated and utilized for disaster mitigation in Marmara region and disaster education in Turkey. Updated research results of the MarDiM SATREPS Project will be officially presented toward the end of the Project period, which is March 2018.

Radiation efficiency of earthquake sources at different hierarchical levels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kocharyan, G. G., E-mail: gevorgkidg@mail.ru; Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology

Such factors as earthquake size and its mechanism define common trends in alteration of radiation efficiency. The macroscopic parameter that controls the efficiency of a seismic source is stiffness of fault or fracture. The regularities of this parameter alteration with scale define several hierarchical levels, within which earthquake characteristics obey different laws. Small variations of physical and mechanical properties of the fault principal slip zone can lead to dramatic differences both in the amplitude of released stress and in the amount of radiated energy.

Predicting Lg Coda Using Synthetic Seismograms and Media With Stochastic Heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tibuleac, I. M.; Stroujkova, A.; Bonner, J. L.; Mayeda, K.

2005-12-01

Recent examinations of the characteristics of coda-derived Sn and Lg spectra for yield estimation have shown that the spectral peak of Nevada Test Site (NTS) explosion spectra is depth-of-burial dependent, and that this peak is shifted to higher frequencies for Lop Nor explosions at the same depths. To confidently use coda-based yield formulas, we need to understand and predict coda spectral shape variations with depth, source media, velocity structure, topography, and geological heterogeneity. We present results of a coda modeling study to predict Lg coda. During the initial stages of this research, we have acquired and parameterized a deterministic 6 deg. x 6 deg. velocity and attenuation model centered on the Nevada Test Site. Near-source data are used to constrain density and attenuation profiles for the upper five km. The upper crust velocity profiles are quilted into a background velocity profile at depths greater than five km. The model is parameterized for use in a modified version of the Generalized Fourier Method in two dimensions (GFM2D). We modify this model to include stochastic heterogeneities of varying correlation lengths within the crust. Correlation length, Hurst number and fractional velocity perturbation of the heterogeneities are used to construct different realizations of the random media. We use nuclear explosion and earthquake cluster waveform analysis, as well as well log and geological information to constrain the stochastic parameters for a path between the NTS and the seismic stations near Mina, Nevada. Using multiple runs, we quantify the effects of variations in the stochastic parameters, of heterogeneity location in the crust and attenuation on coda amplitude and spectral characteristics. We calibrate these parameters by matching synthetic earthquake Lg coda envelopes to coda envelopes of local earthquakes with well-defined moments and mechanisms. We generate explosion synthetics for these calibrated deterministic and stochastic models. Secondary effects, including a compensated linear vector dipole source, are superposed on the synthetics in order to adequately characterize the Lg generation. We use this technique to characterize the effects of depth of burial on the coda spectral shapes.

Ground Deformation and Sources geometry of the 2016 Central Italy Earthquake Sequence Investigated through Analytical and Numerical Modeling of DInSAR Measurements and Structural-Geological Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solaro, G.; Bonano, M.; Boncio, P.; Brozzetti, F.; Castaldo, R.; Casu, F.; Cirillo, D.; Cheloni, D.; De Luca, C.; De Nardis, R.; De Novellis, V.; Ferrarini, F.; Lanari, R.; Lavecchia, G.; Manunta, M.; Manzo, M.; Pepe, A.; Pepe, S.; Tizzani, P.; Zinno, I.

2017-12-01

The 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence started on 24th August with a MW 6.1 event, where the intra-Apennine WSW-dipping Vettore-Gorzano extensional fault system released a destructive earthquake, causing 300 casualties and extensive damage to the town of Amatrice and surroundings. We generated several interferograms by using ALOS and Sentinel 1-A and B constellation data acquired on both ascending and descending orbits to show that most displacement is characterized by two main subsiding lobes of about 20 cm on the fault hanging-wall. By inverting the generated interferograms, following the Okada analytical approach, the modelling results account for two sources related to main shock and more energetic aftershock. Through Finite Element numerical modelling that jointly exploits DInSAR deformation measurements and structural-geological data, we reconstruct the 3D source of the Amatrice 2016 normal fault earthquake which well fit the main shock. The inversion shows that the co-seismic displacement area was partitioned on two distinct en echelon fault planes, which at the main event hypocentral depth (8 km) merge in one single WSW-dipping surface. Slip peaks were higher along the southern half of the Vettore fault, lower along the northern half of Gorzano fault and null in the relay zone between the two faults; field evidence of co-seismic surface rupture are coherent with the reconstructed scenario. The following seismic sequence was characterized by numerous aftershocks located southeast and northwest of the epicenter which decreased in frequency and magnitude until the end of October, when a MW 5.9 event occurred on 26th October about 25 km to the NW of the previous mainshock. Then, on 30th October, a third large event of magnitude MW 6.5 nucleated below the town of Norcia, striking the area between the two preceding events and filling the gap between the previous ruptures. Also in this case, we exploit a large dataset of DInSAR and GPS measurements to investigate the ground displacement field and to determine, by using elastic dislocation modelling, the geometries and slip distributions of the causative normal fault segments.

The Physics of Earthquakes: In the Quest for a Unified Theory (or Model) That Quantitatively Describes the Entire Process of an Earthquake Rupture, From its Nucleation to the Dynamic Regime and to its Arrest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohnaka, M.

2004-12-01

For the past four decades, great progress has been made in understanding earthquake source processes. In particular, recent progress in the field of the physics of earthquakes has contributed substantially to unraveling the earthquake generation process in quantitative terms. Yet, a fundamental problem remains unresolved in this field. The constitutive law that governs the behavior of earthquake ruptures is the basis of earthquake physics, and the governing law plays a fundamental role in accounting for the entire process of an earthquake rupture, from its nucleation to the dynamic propagation to its arrest, quantitatively in a unified and consistent manner. Therefore, without establishing the rational constitutive law, the physics of earthquakes cannot be a quantitative science in a true sense, and hence it is urgent to establish the rational constitutive law. However, it has been controversial over the past two decades, and it is still controversial, what the constitutive law for earthquake ruptures ought to be, and how it should be formulated. To resolve the controversy is a necessary step towards a more complete, unified theory of earthquake physics, and now the time is ripe to do so. Because of its fundamental importance, we have to discuss thoroughly and rigorously what the constitutive law ought to be from the standpoint of the physics of rock friction and fracture on the basis of solid evidence. There are prerequisites for the constitutive formulation. The brittle, seismogenic layer and individual faults therein are characterized by inhomogeneity, and fault inhomogeneity has profound implications for earthquake ruptures. In addition, rupture phenomena including earthquakes are inherently scale dependent; indeed, some of the physical quantities inherent in rupture exhibit scale dependence. To treat scale-dependent physical quantities inherent in the rupture over a broad scale range quantitatively in a unified and consistent manner, it is critical to formulate the governing law properly so as to incorporate the scaling property. Thus, the properties of fault inhomogeneity and physical scaling are indispensable prerequisites to be incorporated into the constitutive formulation. Thorough discussion in this context necessarily leads to the consistent conclusion that the constitutive law must be formulated in such a manner that the shear traction is a primary function of the slip displacement, with the secondary effect of slip rate or stationary contact time. This constitutive formulation makes it possible to account for the entire process of an earthquake rupture over a broad scale range quantitatively in a unified and consistent manner.

Source properties of earthquakes near the Salton Sea triggered by the 16 October 1999 M 7.1 Hector Mine, California, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hough, S.E.; Kanamori, H.

2002-01-01

We analyze the source properties of a sequence of triggered earthquakes that occurred near the Salton Sea in southern California in the immediate aftermath of the M 7.1 Hector Mine earthquake of 16 October 1999. The sequence produced a number of early events that were not initially located by the regional network, including two moderate earthquakes: the first within 30 sec of the P-wave arrival and a second approximately 10 minutes after the mainshock. We use available amplitude and waveform data from these events to estimate magnitudes to be approximately 4.7 and 4.4, respectively, and to obtain crude estimates of their locations. The sequence of small events following the initial M 4.7 earthquake is clustered and suggestive of a local aftershock sequence. Using both broadband TriNet data and analog data from the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN), we also investigate the spectral characteristics of the M 4.4 event and other triggered earthquakes using empirical Green's function (EGF) analysis. We find that the source spectra of the events are consistent with expectations for tectonic (brittle shear failure) earthquakes, and infer stress drop values of 0.1 to 6 MPa for six M 2.1 to M 4.4 events. The estimated stress drop values are within the range observed for tectonic earthquakes elsewhere. They are relatively low compared to typically observed stress drop values, which is consistent with expectations for faulting in an extensional, high heat flow regime. The results therefore suggest that, at least in this case, triggered earthquakes are associated with a brittle shear failure mechanism. This further suggests that triggered earthquakes may tend to occur in geothermal-volcanic regions because shear failure occurs at, and can be triggered by, relatively low stresses in extensional regimes.

Earthquake-induced ground failures in Italy from a reviewed database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martino, S.; Prestininzi, A.; Romeo, R. W.

2014-04-01

A database (Italian acronym CEDIT) of earthquake-induced ground failures in Italy is presented, and the related content is analysed. The catalogue collects data regarding landslides, liquefaction, ground cracks, surface faulting and ground changes triggered by earthquakes of Mercalli epicentral intensity 8 or greater that occurred in the last millennium in Italy. As of January 2013, the CEDIT database has been available online for public use (http://www.ceri.uniroma1.it/cn/gis.jsp ) and is presently hosted by the website of the Research Centre for Geological Risks (CERI) of the Sapienza University of Rome. Summary statistics of the database content indicate that 14% of the Italian municipalities have experienced at least one earthquake-induced ground failure and that landslides are the most common ground effects (approximately 45%), followed by ground cracks (32%) and liquefaction (18%). The relationships between ground effects and earthquake parameters such as seismic source energy (earthquake magnitude and epicentral intensity), local conditions (site intensity) and source-to-site distances are also analysed. The analysis indicates that liquefaction, surface faulting and ground changes are much more dependent on the earthquake source energy (i.e. magnitude) than landslides and ground cracks. In contrast, the latter effects are triggered at lower site intensities and greater epicentral distances than the other environmental effects.

Estimation of the Characterized Tsunami Source Model considering the Complicated Shape of Tsunami Source by Using the observed waveforms of GPS Buoys in the Nankai Trough

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seto, S.; Takahashi, T.

2017-12-01

In the 2011 Tohoku earthquake tsunami disaster, the delay of understanding damage situation increased the human damage. To solve this problem, it is important to search the severe damaged areas. The tsunami numerical modeling is useful to estimate damages and the accuracy of simulation depends on the tsunami source. Seto and Takahashi (2017) proposed a method to estimate the characterized tsunami source model by using the limited observed data of GPS buoys. The model consists of Large slip zone (LSZ), Super large slip zone (SLSZ) and background rupture zone (BZ) as the Cabinet Office, Government of Japan (below COGJ) reported after the Tohoku tsunami. At the beginning of this method, the rectangular fault model is assumed based on the seismic magnitude and hypocenter reported right after an earthquake. By using the fault model, tsunami propagation is simulated numerically, and the fault model is improved after comparing the computed data with the observed data repeatedly. In the comparison, correlation coefficient and regression coefficient are used as indexes. They are calculated with the observed and the computed tsunami wave profiles. This repetition is conducted to get the two coefficients close to 1.0, which makes the precise of the fault model higher. However, it was indicated as the improvement that the model did not examine a complicated shape of tsunami source. In this study, we proposed an improved model to examine the complicated shape. COGJ(2012) assumed that possible tsunami source region in the Nankai trough consisted of the several thousands small faults. And, we use these small faults to estimate the targeted tsunami source in this model. Therefore, we can estimate the complicated tsunami source by using these small faults. The estimation of BZ is carried out as a first step, and LSZ and SLSZ are estimated next as same as the previous model. The proposed model by using GPS buoy was applied for a tsunami scenario in the Nankai Trough. As a result, the final estimated location of LSZ and SLSZ in BZ are estimated well.

Large Occurrence Patterns of New Zealand Deep Earthquakes: Characterization by Use of a Switching Poisson Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaochuan, Lu; Vere-Jones, David

2011-10-01

The paper studies the statistical properties of deep earthquakes around North Island, New Zealand. We first evaluate the catalogue coverage and completeness of deep events according to cusum (cumulative sum) statistics and earlier literature. The epicentral, depth, and magnitude distributions of deep earthquakes are then discussed. It is worth noting that strong grouping effects are observed in the epicentral distribution of these deep earthquakes. Also, although the spatial distribution of deep earthquakes does not change, their occurrence frequencies vary from time to time, active in one period, relatively quiescent in another. The depth distribution of deep earthquakes also hardly changes except for events with focal depth less than 100 km. On the basis of spatial concentration we partition deep earthquakes into several groups—the Taupo-Bay of Plenty group, the Taranaki group, and the Cook Strait group. Second-order moment analysis via the two-point correlation function reveals only very small-scale clustering of deep earthquakes, presumably limited to some hot spots only. We also suggest that some models usually used for shallow earthquakes fit deep earthquakes unsatisfactorily. Instead, we propose a switching Poisson model for the occurrence patterns of deep earthquakes. The goodness-of-fit test suggests that the time-varying activity is well characterized by a switching Poisson model. Furthermore, detailed analysis carried out on each deep group by use of switching Poisson models reveals similar time-varying behavior in occurrence frequencies in each group.

Joint Inversion of Earthquake Source Parameters with local and teleseismic body waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, W.; Ni, S.; Wang, Z.

2011-12-01

In the classical source parameter inversion algorithm of CAP (Cut and Paste method, by Zhao and Helmberger), waveform data at near distances (typically less than 500km) are partitioned into Pnl and surface waves to account for uncertainties in the crustal models and different amplitude weight of body and surface waves. The classical CAP algorithms have proven effective for resolving source parameters (focal mechanisms, depth and moment) for earthquakes well recorded on relatively dense seismic network. However for regions covered with sparse stations, it is challenging to achieve precise source parameters . In this case, a moderate earthquake of ~M6 is usually recorded on only one or two local stations with epicentral distances less than 500 km. Fortunately, an earthquake of ~M6 can be well recorded on global seismic networks. Since the ray paths for teleseismic and local body waves sample different portions of the focal sphere, combination of teleseismic and local body wave data helps constrain source parameters better. Here we present a new CAP mothod (CAPjoint), which emploits both teleseismic body waveforms (P and SH waves) and local waveforms (Pnl, Rayleigh and Love waves) to determine source parameters. For an earthquake in Nevada that is well recorded with dense local network (USArray stations), we compare the results from CAPjoint with those from the traditional CAP method involving only of local waveforms , and explore the efficiency with bootstraping statistics to prove the results derived by CAPjoint are stable and reliable. Even with one local station included in joint inversion, accuracy of source parameters such as moment and strike can be much better improved.

Tidal triggering of earthquakes suggests poroelastic behavior on the San Andreas Fault

DOE PAGES

Delorey, Andrew A.; van der Elst, Nicholas J.; Johnson, Paul Allan

2016-12-28

Tidal triggering of earthquakes is hypothesized to provide quantitative information regarding the fault's stress state, poroelastic properties, and may be significant for our understanding of seismic hazard. To date, studies of regional or global earthquake catalogs have had only modest successes in identifying tidal triggering. We posit that the smallest events that may provide additional evidence of triggering go unidentified and thus we developed a technique to improve the identification of very small magnitude events. We identify events applying a method known as inter-station seismic coherence where we prioritize detection and discrimination over characterization. Here we show tidal triggering ofmore » earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault. We find the complex interaction of semi-diurnal and fortnightly tidal periods exposes both stress threshold and critical state behavior. Lastly, our findings reveal earthquake nucleation processes and pore pressure conditions – properties of faults that are difficult to measure, yet extremely important for characterizing earthquake physics and seismic hazards.« less

Tidal triggering of earthquakes suggests poroelastic behavior on the San Andreas Fault

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Delorey, Andrew A.; van der Elst, Nicholas J.; Johnson, Paul Allan

Tidal triggering of earthquakes is hypothesized to provide quantitative information regarding the fault's stress state, poroelastic properties, and may be significant for our understanding of seismic hazard. To date, studies of regional or global earthquake catalogs have had only modest successes in identifying tidal triggering. We posit that the smallest events that may provide additional evidence of triggering go unidentified and thus we developed a technique to improve the identification of very small magnitude events. We identify events applying a method known as inter-station seismic coherence where we prioritize detection and discrimination over characterization. Here we show tidal triggering ofmore » earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault. We find the complex interaction of semi-diurnal and fortnightly tidal periods exposes both stress threshold and critical state behavior. Lastly, our findings reveal earthquake nucleation processes and pore pressure conditions – properties of faults that are difficult to measure, yet extremely important for characterizing earthquake physics and seismic hazards.« less

Tidal triggering of earthquakes suggests poroelastic behavior on the San Andreas Fault

USGS Publications Warehouse

Delorey, Andrew; Van Der Elst, Nicholas; Johnson, Paul

2017-01-01

Tidal triggering of earthquakes is hypothesized to provide quantitative information regarding the fault's stress state, poroelastic properties, and may be significant for our understanding of seismic hazard. To date, studies of regional or global earthquake catalogs have had only modest successes in identifying tidal triggering. We posit that the smallest events that may provide additional evidence of triggering go unidentified and thus we developed a technique to improve the identification of very small magnitude events. We identify events applying a method known as inter-station seismic coherence where we prioritize detection and discrimination over characterization. Here we show tidal triggering of earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault. We find the complex interaction of semi-diurnal and fortnightly tidal periods exposes both stress threshold and critical state behavior. Our findings reveal earthquake nucleation processes and pore pressure conditions – properties of faults that are difficult to measure, yet extremely important for characterizing earthquake physics and seismic hazards.

Energy Partition and Variability of Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanamori, H.

2003-12-01

During an earthquake the potential energy (strain energy + gravitational energy + rotational energy) is released, and the released potential energy (Δ W) is partitioned into radiated energy (ER), fracture energy (EG), and thermal energy (E H). How Δ W is partitioned into these energies controls the behavior of an earthquake. The merit of the slip-weakening concept is that only ER and EG control the dynamics, and EH can be treated separately to discuss the thermal characteristics of an earthquake. In general, if EG/E_R is small, the event is ``brittle", if EG /ER is large, the event is ``quasi static" or, in more common terms, ``slow earthquakes" or ``creep". If EH is very large, the event may well be called a thermal runaway rather than an earthquake. The difference in energy partition has important implications for the rupture initiation, evolution and excitation of long-period ground motions from very large earthquakes. We review the current state of knowledge on this problem in light of seismological observations and the basic physics of fracture. With seismological methods, we can measure only ER and the lower-bound of Δ W, Δ W0, and estimation of other energies involves many assumptions. ER: Although ER can be directly measured from the radiated waves, its determination is difficult because a large fraction of energy radiated at the source is attenuated during propagation. With the commonly used teleseismic and regional methods, only for events with MW>7 and MW>4, respectively, we can directly measure more than 10% of the total radiated energy. The rest must be estimated after correction for attenuation. Thus, large uncertainties are involved, especially for small earthquakes. Δ W0: To estimate Δ W0, estimation of the source dimension is required. Again, only for large earthquakes, the source dimension can be estimated reliably. With the source dimension, the static stress drop, Δ σ S, and Δ W0, can be estimated. EG: Seismologically, EG is the energy mechanically dissipated during faulting. In the context of the slip-weakening model, EG can be estimated from Δ W0 and ER. Alternatively, EG can be estimated from the laboratory data on the surface energy, the grain size and the total volume of newly formed fault gouge. This method suggests that, for crustal earthquakes, EG/E_R is very small, less than 0.2 even for extreme cases, for earthquakes with MW>7. This is consistent with the EG estimated with seismological methods, and the fast rupture speeds during most large earthquakes. For shallow subduction-zone earthquakes, EG/E_R varies substantially depending on the tectonic environments. EH: Direct estimation of EH is difficult. However, even with modest friction, EH can be very large, enough to melt or even dissociate a significant amount of material near the slip zone for large events with large slip, and the associated thermal effects may have significant effects on fault dynamics. The energy partition varies significantly for different types of earthquakes, e.g. large earthquakes on mature faults, large earthquakes on faults with low slip rates, subduction-zone earthquakes, deep focus earthquakes etc; this variability manifests itself in the difference in the evolution of seismic slip pattern. The different behaviors will be illustrated using the examples for large earthquakes, including, the 2001 Kunlun, the 1998 Balleny Is., the 1994 Bolivia, the 2001 India earthquake, the 1999 Chi-Chi, and the 2002 Denali earthquakes.

MOMENT TENSOR SOLUTIONS OF RECENT EARTHQUAKES IN THE CALABRIAN REGION (SOUTH ITALY)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orecchio, B.; D'Amico, S.; Gervasi, A.; Guerra, I.; Presti, D.; Zhu, L.; Herrmann, R. B.; Neri, G.

2009-12-01

The aim of this study is to provide moment tensor solutions for recent events occurred in the Calabrian region (South Italy), an area struck by several destructive earthquakes in the last centuries. The seismicity of the area under investigation is actually characterized by low to moderate magnitude earthquakes (up to 4.5) not properly represented in the Italian national catalogues of focal mechanisms like RCMT (Regional Centroid Moment Tensor, Pondrelli et al., PEPI, 2006) and TDMT (Time Domain Moment Tensors, Dreger and Helmerger, BSSA, 1993). Also, the solutions estimated from P-onset polarities are often poorly constrained due to network geometry in the study area. We computed the moment tensor solutions using the “Cut And Paste” method originally proposed by Zhao and Helmerger (BSSA, 1994) and later modified by Zhu and Helmerger (BSSA, 1996). Each waveform is broken into the Pnl and surface wave segments and the source depth and focal mechanisms are determined using a grid search technique. The technique allows time shifts between synthetics and observed data in order to reduce dependence of the solution on the assumed velocity model and earthquake locations. This method has shown to provide good-quality solutions for earthquakes of magnitude as small as 2.5. The data set of the present study consists of waveforms from more than 100 earthquakes that were recorded by the permanent seismic network run by Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) and about 40 stations of the NSF CAT/SCAN project. The results concur to check and better detail the regional geodynamic model assuming subduction of the Ionian lithosphere beneath the Tyrrhenian one and related response of the shallow structures in terms of normal and strike-slip faulting seismicity.

Investigating Environmental Tectonics in Northern Alpine Foreland of Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cloetingh, Sierd; Ziegler, Peter; Cornu, Tristan; Ustaszewski, K.; Schmid, S.; Dezes, P.; Hinsch, R.; Decker, K.; Lopes Cardozo, G.; Granet, M.; Bertrand, G.; Behrmann, J.; Michon, L.; Pagnier, H.; van Wees, J. D.; Rozsa, S.; Heck, B.; Verdun, J.; Kahle, H. G.; Fracassi, U.; Winter, T.; Burov, E.

Until now, research on neotectonics and related seismicity has mostly focused on active plate boundaries characterized by a generally high level of earthquake activity. Current seismic hazard estimates for intraplate areas are commonly based on probabilistic analyses of historical and instrumental earthquake data. The accuracy of these hazard estimates is limited by the nature of the data (e.g., ambiguous historical sources), and by the restriction of available earthquake catalogues to time scales of only few hundred years. Both of these are geologically insignificant and unsuitable for describing tectonic processes causing earthquakes. This is especially relevant to intraplate regions, where faults show low slip rates resulting in long average recurrence times for large earthquakes (103 to 106 yrs), such as the devastating Basel earthquake of 1356, with an estimated magnitude of 6.5. The Alpine orogen and the intraplate sedimentary basins and rifts of its northern foreland are associated with a much higher level of neotectonic activity than hitherto assumed. Seismicity and stress indicator data, combined with geodetic and geomorphologic observations, demonstrate that the Northern Alpine foreland is being actively deformed [Cloetingh, 2000; Ziegler et al., 2002; Behrmann et al., 2003]. This has major implications for the assessment of their natural hazards and environmental degradation. The northwest European lithosphere has undergone a polyphase evolution, in which the interplay between upper mantle thermal perturbations [Goes et al., 2000; Ritter et al., 2001] and stress-induced intraplate deformation [Muller et al., 1992; Ziegler et al., 2002] played an important role. A number of recent findings point to an important role of lithospheric folding in thermally weakened lithosphere of the northwestern European foreland [Cloetingh et al., 1999].

The Saguenay Fjord, Quebec, Canada: Integrating marine geotechnical and geophysical data for spatial seismic slope stability and hazard assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Urgeles, R.; Locat, J.; Lee, H.J.; Martin, F.

2002-01-01

In 1996 a major flood occurred in the Saguenay region, Quebec, Canada, delivering several km3 of sediment to the Saguenay Fjord. Such sediments covered large areas of the, until then, largely contaminated fjord bottom, thus providing a natural capping layer. Recent swath bathymetry data have also shown that sediment landslides are widely present in the upper section of the Saguenay Fjord, and therefore, should a new event occur, it would probably expose the old contaminated sediments. Landslides in the Upper Saguenay Fjord are most probably due to earthquakes given its proximity to the Charlevoix seismic region and to that of the 1988 Saguenay earthquake. In consequence, this study tries to characterize the permanent ground deformations induced by different earthquake scenarios from which shallow sediment landslides could be triggered. The study follows a Newmark analysis in which, firstly, the seismic slope performance is assessed, secondly, the seismic hazard analyzed, and finally an evaluation of the seismic landslide hazard is made. The study is based on slope gradients obtained from EM1000 multibeam bathymetry data as well as water content and undrained shear strength measurements made in box and gravity cores. Ground motions integrating local site conditions were simulated using synthetic time histories. The study assumes the region of the 1988 Saguenay earthquake as the most likely source area for earthquakes capable of inducing large ground motions in the Upper Saguenay region. Accordingly, we have analyzed several shaking intensities to deduce that generalized sediment displacements will begin to occur when moment magnitudes exceed 6. Major displacements, failure, and subsequent landslides could occur only from earthquake moment magnitudes exceeding 6.75. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Seismicity and structure of Nazca Plate subduction zone in southern Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, H.; Kim, Y.; Clayton, R. W.

2015-12-01

We image the Nazca plate subduction zone system by detecting and (re)locating intra-slab earthquakes in southern Peru. Dense seismic arrays (PeruSE, 2013) were deployed along four lines to target geophysical characterization of the subduction system in the transition zone between flat and normal dipping segments of the Nazca plate (2-15°S). The arc volcanism is absent near the flat slab segment, and currently, the correlation between the location of the active volcanic front and corresponding slab depth is neither clear nor consistent between previously published models from seismicity. We detect 620 local earthquakes from August 2008 to February 2013 by manually picking 6559 and 4145 arrival times for P- and S-phases, respectively. We observe that the S-phase data is helpful to reduce the trade-off between origin time and depth of deeper earthquakes (>100 km). Earthquake locations are relocated to constrain the Nazca slab-mantle interface in the slab-dip transition zone using 7322 measurements of differential times of nearby earthquake pairs by waveform cross-correlation. We also employ the double-difference tomography (Zhang and Thurber, 2003) to further improve earthquake source locations and the spatial resolution of the velocity structure simultaneously. The relocated hypocenters clearly delineate the dipping Wadati-Benioff zone in the slab-dip transition zone between the shallow- (25°) to-flat dipping slab segment in the north and the normal (40°) dipping segment in the south. The intermediate-depth seismicity in the flat slab region stops at a depth of ~100 km and a horizontal distance of ~400 km from the trench. We find a significant slab-dip difference (up to 10°) between our relocated seismicity and previously published slab models along the profile region sampling the normal-dip slab at depth (>100 km).

Assessment of source probabilities for potential tsunamis affecting the U.S. Atlantic coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.

2009-01-01

Estimating the likelihood of tsunamis occurring along the U.S. Atlantic coast critically depends on knowledge of tsunami source probability. We review available information on both earthquake and landslide probabilities from potential sources that could generate local and transoceanic tsunamis. Estimating source probability includes defining both size and recurrence distributions for earthquakes and landslides. For the former distribution, source sizes are often distributed according to a truncated or tapered power-law relationship. For the latter distribution, sources are often assumed to occur in time according to a Poisson process, simplifying the way tsunami probabilities from individual sources can be aggregated. For the U.S. Atlantic coast, earthquake tsunami sources primarily occur at transoceanic distances along plate boundary faults. Probabilities for these sources are constrained from previous statistical studies of global seismicity for similar plate boundary types. In contrast, there is presently little information constraining landslide probabilities that may generate local tsunamis. Though there is significant uncertainty in tsunami source probabilities for the Atlantic, results from this study yield a comparative analysis of tsunami source recurrence rates that can form the basis for future probabilistic analyses.

Improving Correlation Algorithms to Detect and Characterize Smaller Magnitude Induced Seismicity Swarms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skoumal, R.; Brudzinski, M.; Currie, B.

2015-12-01

Induced seismic sequences often occur as swarms that can include thousands of small (< M 2) earthquakes. While the identification of this microseismicity would invariably aid in the characterization and modeling of induced sequences, traditional earthquake detection techniques often provide incomplete catalogs, even when local networks are deployed. Because induced sequences often include scores of micro-earthquakes that prelude larger magnitude events, the identification of these small magnitude events would be crucial for the early identification of induced sequences. By taking advantage of the repeating, swarm-like nature of induced seismicity, a more robust catalog can be created using complementary correlation algorithms in near real-time without the reliance on traditional earthquake detection and association routines. Since traditional earthquake catalog methodologies using regional networks have a relatively high detection threshold (M 2+), we have sought to develop correlation routines that can detect smaller magnitude sequences. While short-term/long-term amplitude average detection algorithms requires significant signal-to-noise ratio at multiple stations for confident identification, a correlation detector is capable of identifying earthquakes with high confidence using just a single station. The result is an embarrassingly parallel task that can be employed for a network to be used as an early warning system for potentially induced seismicity while also better characterizing tectonic sequences beyond what traditional methods allow.

Toward real-time regional earthquake simulation II: Real-time Online earthquake Simulation (ROS) of Taiwan earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Shiann-Jong; Liu, Qinya; Tromp, Jeroen; Komatitsch, Dimitri; Liang, Wen-Tzong; Huang, Bor-Shouh

2014-06-01

We developed a Real-time Online earthquake Simulation system (ROS) to simulate regional earthquakes in Taiwan. The ROS uses a centroid moment tensor solution of seismic events from a Real-time Moment Tensor monitoring system (RMT), which provides all the point source parameters including the event origin time, hypocentral location, moment magnitude and focal mechanism within 2 min after the occurrence of an earthquake. Then, all of the source parameters are automatically forwarded to the ROS to perform an earthquake simulation, which is based on a spectral-element method (SEM). A new island-wide, high resolution SEM mesh model is developed for the whole Taiwan in this study. We have improved SEM mesh quality by introducing a thin high-resolution mesh layer near the surface to accommodate steep and rapidly varying topography. The mesh for the shallow sedimentary basin is adjusted to reflect its complex geometry and sharp lateral velocity contrasts. The grid resolution at the surface is about 545 m, which is sufficient to resolve topography and tomography data for simulations accurate up to 1.0 Hz. The ROS is also an infrastructural service, making online earthquake simulation feasible. Users can conduct their own earthquake simulation by providing a set of source parameters through the ROS webpage. For visualization, a ShakeMovie and ShakeMap are produced during the simulation. The time needed for one event is roughly 3 min for a 70 s ground motion simulation. The ROS is operated online at the Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica (http://ros.earth.sinica.edu.tw/). Our long-term goal for the ROS system is to contribute to public earth science outreach and to realize seismic ground motion prediction in real-time.

A study of Guptkashi, Uttarakhand earthquake of 6 February 2017 ( M w 5.3) in the Himalayan arc and implications for ground motion estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinagesh, Davuluri; Singh, Shri Krishna; Suresh, Gaddale; Srinivas, Dakuri; Pérez-Campos, Xyoli; Suresh, Gudapati

2018-05-01

The 2017 Guptkashi earthquake occurred in a segment of the Himalayan arc with high potential for a strong earthquake in the near future. In this context, a careful analysis of the earthquake is important as it may shed light on source and ground motion characteristics during future earthquakes. Using the earthquake recording on a single broadband strong-motion seismograph installed at the epicenter, we estimate the earthquake's location (30.546° N, 79.063° E), depth ( H = 19 km), the seismic moment ( M 0 = 1.12×1017 Nm, M w 5.3), the focal mechanism ( φ = 280°, δ = 14°, λ = 84°), the source radius ( a = 1.3 km), and the static stress drop (Δ σ s 22 MPa). The event occurred just above the Main Himalayan Thrust. S-wave spectra of the earthquake at hard sites in the arc are well approximated (assuming ω -2 source model) by attenuation parameters Q( f) = 500 f 0.9, κ = 0.04 s, and f max = infinite, and a stress drop of Δ σ = 70 MPa. Observed and computed peak ground motions, using stochastic method along with parameters inferred from spectral analysis, agree well with each other. These attenuation parameters are also reasonable for the observed spectra and/or peak ground motion parameters in the arc at distances ≤ 200 km during five other earthquakes in the region (4.6 ≤ M w ≤ 6.9). The estimated stress drop of the six events ranges from 20 to 120 MPa. Our analysis suggests that attenuation parameters given above may be used for ground motion estimation at hard sites in the Himalayan arc via the stochastic method.

Source models of M-7 class earthquakes in the rupture area of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake by near-field tsunami modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubota, T.; Hino, R.; Inazu, D.; Saito, T.; Iinuma, T.; Suzuki, S.; Ito, Y.; Ohta, Y.; Suzuki, K.

2012-12-01

We estimated source models of small amplitude tsunami associated with M-7 class earthquakes in the rupture area of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake using near-field records of tsunami recorded by ocean bottom pressure gauges (OBPs). The largest (Mw=7.3) foreshock of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake, occurred on 9 Mar., two days before the mainshock. Tsunami associated with the foreshock was clearly recorded by seven OBPs, as well as coseismic vertical deformation of the seafloor. Assuming a planer fault along the plate boundary as a source, the OBP records were inverted for slip distribution. As a result, the most of the coseismic slip was found to be concentrated in the area of about 40 x 40 km in size and located to the north-west of the epicenter, suggesting downdip rupture propagation. Seismic moment of our tsunami waveform inversion is 1.4 x 10^20 Nm, equivalent to Mw 7.3. On 2011 July 10th, an earthquake of Mw 7.0 occurred near the hypocenter of the mainshock. Its relatively deep focus and strike-slip focal mechanism indicate that this earthquake was an intraslab earthquake. The earthquake was associated with small amplitude tsunami. By using the OBP records, we estimated a model of the initial sea-surface height distribution. Our tsunami inversion showed that a pair of uplift/subsiding eyeballs was required to explain the observed tsunami waveform. The spatial pattern of the seafloor deformation is consistent with the oblique strike-slip solution obtained by the seismic data analyses. The location and strike of the hinge line separating the uplift and subsidence zones correspond well to the linear distribution of the aftershock determined by using local OBS data (Obana et al., 2012).

A study of Guptkashi, Uttarakhand earthquake of 6 February 2017 (M w 5.3) in the Himalayan arc and implications for ground motion estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinagesh, Davuluri; Singh, Shri Krishna; Suresh, Gaddale; Srinivas, Dakuri; Pérez-Campos, Xyoli; Suresh, Gudapati

2018-02-01

The 2017 Guptkashi earthquake occurred in a segment of the Himalayan arc with high potential for a strong earthquake in the near future. In this context, a careful analysis of the earthquake is important as it may shed light on source and ground motion characteristics during future earthquakes. Using the earthquake recording on a single broadband strong-motion seismograph installed at the epicenter, we estimate the earthquake's location (30.546° N, 79.063° E), depth (H = 19 km), the seismic moment (M 0 = 1.12×1017 Nm, M w 5.3), the focal mechanism (φ = 280°, δ = 14°, λ = 84°), the source radius (a = 1.3 km), and the static stress drop (Δσ s 22 MPa). The event occurred just above the Main Himalayan Thrust. S-wave spectra of the earthquake at hard sites in the arc are well approximated (assuming ω -2 source model) by attenuation parameters Q(f) = 500f 0.9, κ = 0.04 s, and f max = infinite, and a stress drop of Δσ = 70 MPa. Observed and computed peak ground motions, using stochastic method along with parameters inferred from spectral analysis, agree well with each other. These attenuation parameters are also reasonable for the observed spectra and/or peak ground motion parameters in the arc at distances ≤ 200 km during five other earthquakes in the region (4.6 ≤ M w ≤ 6.9). The estimated stress drop of the six events ranges from 20 to 120 MPa. Our analysis suggests that attenuation parameters given above may be used for ground motion estimation at hard sites in the Himalayan arc via the stochastic method.

Source area of the 1858 earthquake swarm in the central Ryukyu Islands revealed by the observations of Father Louis Furet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oda, Takuma; Nakamura, Mamoru

2017-09-01

We estimated the location and magnitude of earthquakes constituting the 1858 earthquake swarm in the central Ryukyu Islands using the felt earthquakes recorded by Father Louis Furet who lived in Naha, Okinawa Island, in the middle of the nineteenth century. First, we estimated the JMA seismic intensity of the earthquakes by interpreting the words used to describe the shaking. Next, using the seismic intensity and shaking duration of the felt earthquakes, we estimated the epicentral distance and magnitude range of three earthquakes in the swarm. The results showed that the epicentral distances of the earthquakes were 20-250 km and that magnitudes ranged between 4.5 and 6.5, with a strong correlation between epicentral distance and magnitude. Since the rumblings accompanying some earthquakes in the swarm were heard from a northward direction, the swarm probably occurred to the north of Naha. The most likely source area for the 1858 swarm is the central Okinawa Trough, where a similar swarm event occurred in 1980. If the 1858 swarm occurred in the central Okinawa Trough, the estimated maximum magnitude would have reached 6-7. In contrast, if the 1858 swarm occurred in the vicinity of Amami Island, which is the second most likely candidate area, it would have produced a cluster of magnitude 7-8 earthquakes.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Seismic source parameters of the induced seismicity at The Geysers geothermal area, California, by a generalized inversion approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Picozzi, Matteo; Oth, Adrien; Parolai, Stefano; Bindi, Dino; De Landro, Grazia; Amoroso, Ortensia

2017-04-01

The accurate determination of stress drop, seismic efficiency and how source parameters scale with earthquake size is an important for seismic hazard assessment of induced seismicity. We propose an improved non-parametric, data-driven strategy suitable for monitoring induced seismicity, which combines the generalized inversion technique together with genetic algorithms. In the first step of the analysis the generalized inversion technique allows for an effective correction of waveforms for the attenuation and site contributions. Then, the retrieved source spectra are inverted by a non-linear sensitivity-driven inversion scheme that allows accurate estimation of source parameters. We therefore investigate the earthquake source characteristics of 633 induced earthquakes (ML 2-4.5) recorded at The Geysers geothermal field (California) by a dense seismic network (i.e., 32 stations of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Geysers/Calpine surface seismic network, more than 17.000 velocity records). We find for most of the events a non-selfsimilar behavior, empirical source spectra that requires ωγ source model with γ > 2 to be well fitted and small radiation efficiency ηSW. All these findings suggest different dynamic rupture processes for smaller and larger earthquakes, and that the proportion of high frequency energy radiation and the amount of energy required to overcome the friction or for the creation of new fractures surface changes with the earthquake size. Furthermore, we observe also two distinct families of events with peculiar source parameters that, in one case suggests the reactivation of deep structures linked to the regional tectonics, while in the other supports the idea of an important role of steeply dipping fault in the fluid pressure diffusion.

Real-Time Earthquake Intensity Estimation Using Streaming Data Analysis of Social and Physical Sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kropivnitskaya, Yelena; Tiampo, Kristy F.; Qin, Jinhui; Bauer, Michael A.

2017-06-01

Earthquake intensity is one of the key components of the decision-making process for disaster response and emergency services. Accurate and rapid intensity calculations can help to reduce total loss and the number of casualties after an earthquake. Modern intensity assessment procedures handle a variety of information sources, which can be divided into two main categories. The first type of data is that derived from physical sensors, such as seismographs and accelerometers, while the second type consists of data obtained from social sensors, such as witness observations of the consequences of the earthquake itself. Estimation approaches using additional data sources or that combine sources from both data types tend to increase intensity uncertainty due to human factors and inadequate procedures for temporal and spatial estimation, resulting in precision errors in both time and space. Here we present a processing approach for the real-time analysis of streams of data from both source types. The physical sensor data is acquired from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) seismic network in California and the social sensor data is based on Twitter user observations. First, empirical relationships between tweet rate and observed Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) are developed using data from the M6.0 South Napa, CAF earthquake that occurred on August 24, 2014. Second, the streams of both data types are analyzed together in simulated real-time to produce one intensity map. The second implementation is based on IBM InfoSphere Streams, a cloud platform for real-time analytics of big data. To handle large processing workloads for data from various sources, it is deployed and run on a cloud-based cluster of virtual machines. We compare the quality and evolution of intensity maps from different data sources over 10-min time intervals immediately following the earthquake. Results from the joint analysis shows that it provides more complete coverage, with better accuracy and higher resolution over a larger area than either data source alone.

Seismotectonic Map of Afghanistan and Adjacent Areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wheeler, Russell L.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

2007-01-01

Introduction This map is part of an assessment of Afghanistan's geology, natural resources, and natural hazards. One of the natural hazards is from earthquake shaking. One of the tools required to address the shaking hazard is a probabilistic seismic-hazard map, which was made separately. The information on this seismotectonic map has been used in the design and computation of the hazard map. A seismotectonic map like this one shows geological, seismological, and other information that previously had been scattered among many sources. The compilation can show spatial relations that might not have been seen by comparing the original sources, and it can suggest hypotheses that might not have occurred to persons who studied those scattered sources. The main map shows faults and earthquakes of Afghanistan. Plate convergence drives the deformations that cause the earthquakes. Accordingly, smaller maps and text explain the modern plate-tectonic setting of Afghanistan and its evolution, and relate both to patterns of faults and earthquakes.

Statiscal analysis of an earthquake-induced landslide distribution - The 1989 Loma Prieta, California event

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keefer, D.K.

2000-01-01

The 1989 Loma Prieta, California earthquake (moment magnitude, M=6.9) generated landslides throughout an area of about 15,000 km2 in central California. Most of these landslides occurred in an area of about 2000 km2 in the mountainous terrain around the epicenter, where they were mapped during field investigations immediately following the earthquake. The distribution of these landslides is investigated statistically, using regression and one-way analysisof variance (ANOVA) techniques to determine how the occurrence of landslides correlates with distance from the earthquake source, slope steepness, and rock type. The landslide concentration (defined as the number of landslide sources per unit area) has a strong inverse correlation with distance from the earthquake source and a strong positive correlation with slope steepness. The landslide concentration differs substantially among the various geologic units in the area. The differences correlate to some degree with differences in lithology and degree of induration, but this correlation is less clear, suggesting a more complex relationship between landslide occurrence and rock properties. ?? 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of Earth's oblateness on the seismic moment estimation from satellite gravimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Chunli; Guo, Junyi; Shang, Kun; Shum, C. K.; Wang, Rongjiang

2018-05-01

Over the last decade, satellite gravimetry, as a new class of geodetic sensors, has been increasingly studied for its use in improving source model inversion for large undersea earthquakes. When these satellite-observed gravity change data are used to estimate source parameters such as seismic moment, the forward modelling of earthquake seismic deformation is crucial because imperfect modelling could lead to errors in the resolved source parameters. Here, we discuss several modelling issues and focus on one modelling deficiency resulting from the upward continuation of gravity change considering the Earth's oblateness, which is ignored in contemporary studies. For the low degree (degree 60) time-variable gravity solutions from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mission data, the model-predicted gravity change would be overestimated by 9 per cent for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, and about 6 per cent for the 2010 Maule earthquake. For high degree gravity solutions, the model-predicted gravity change at degree 240 would be overestimated by 30 per cent for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, resulting in the seismic moment to be systematically underestimated by 30 per cent.

Dynamic fault rupture model of the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake, Japan; Role of rupture velocity changes on extreme ground motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido Hernandez, N. E.; Dalguer Gudiel, L. A.; Aoi, S.

2009-12-01

The Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake, a reverse earthquake occurred in the southern Iwate prefecture Japan (2008/6/14), produced the largest peak ground acceleration recorded to date (4g) (Aoi et al. 2008), at the West Ichinoseki (IWTH25), KiK-net strong motion station of NIED. This station which is equipped with surface and borehole accelerometers (GL-260), also recorded very high peak accelerations up to 1g at the borehole level, despite being located in a rock site. From comparison of spectrograms of the observed surface and borehole records at IWTH25, Pulido et. al (2008) identified two high frequency (HF) ground motion events located at 4.5s and 6.3s originating at the source, which likely derived in the extreme observed accelerations of 3.9g and 3.5g at IWTH25. In order to understand the generation mechanism of these HF events we performed a dynamic fault rupture model of the Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake by using the Support Operator Rupture Dynamics (SORD) code, (Ely et al., 2009). SORD solves the elastodynamic equation using a generalized finite difference method that can utilize meshes of arbitrary structure and is capable of handling geometries appropriate to thrust earthquakes. Our spontaneous dynamic rupture model of the Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake is governed by the simple slip weakening friction law. The dynamic parameters, stress drop, strength excess and critical slip weakening distance are estimated following the procedure described in Pulido and Dalguer (2009) [PD09]. These parameters develop earthquake rupture consistent with the final slip obtained by kinematic source inversion of near source strong ground motion recordings. The dislocation model of this earthquake is characterized by a patch of large slip located ~7 km south of the hypocenter (Suzuki et al. 2009). Our results for the calculation of stress drop follow a similar pattern. Using the rupture times obtained from the dynamic model of the Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake we estimated the rupture velocity as well as rupture velocity changes distribution across the fault plane based on the procedure proposed by PD09. Our results show that rupture velocity has strong variations concentrated in small patches within large slip areas (asperities). Using this dynamic model we performed the strong motion simulation at the IWTH25 borehole. We obtained that this model is able to reproduce the two HF events observed in the strong motion data. Our preliminary results suggest that the extreme acceleration pulses were induced by two strong rupture velocity acceleration events at the rupture front. References Aoi, S., T. Kunugi, and H. Fujiwara, 2008, Science, 322, 727-730. Ely, G. P., S. M. Day, and J.-B. Minster (2009), Geophys. J. Int., 177(3), 1140-1150. Pulido, N., S. Aoi, and W. Suzuki (2008), AGU Fall meeting, S33C-02. Pulido, N., and L.A. Dalguer, (2009). Estimation of the high-frequency radiation of the 2000 Tottori (Japan) earthquake based on a dynamic model of fault rupture: Application to the strong ground motion simulation, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 99(4), 2305-2322. Suzuki, W., S. Aoi, and H. Sekiguchi, (2009), Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. (Accepted).

The energy release in earthquakes, and subduction zone seismicity and stress in slabs. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vassiliou, M. S.

1983-01-01

Energy release in earthquakes is discussed. Dynamic energy from source time function, a simplified procedure for modeling deep focus events, static energy estimates, near source energy studies, and energy and magnitude are addressed. Subduction zone seismicity and stress in slabs are also discussed.

Physics-Based Hazard Assessment for Critical Structures Near Large Earthquake Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutchings, L.; Mert, A.; Fahjan, Y.; Novikova, T.; Golara, A.; Miah, M.; Fergany, E.; Foxall, W.

2017-09-01

We argue that for critical structures near large earthquake sources: (1) the ergodic assumption, recent history, and simplified descriptions of the hazard are not appropriate to rely on for earthquake ground motion prediction and can lead to a mis-estimation of the hazard and risk to structures; (2) a physics-based approach can address these issues; (3) a physics-based source model must be provided to generate realistic phasing effects from finite rupture and model near-source ground motion correctly; (4) wave propagations and site response should be site specific; (5) a much wider search of possible sources of ground motion can be achieved computationally with a physics-based approach; (6) unless one utilizes a physics-based approach, the hazard and risk to structures has unknown uncertainties; (7) uncertainties can be reduced with a physics-based approach, but not with an ergodic approach; (8) computational power and computer codes have advanced to the point that risk to structures can be calculated directly from source and site-specific ground motions. Spanning the variability of potential ground motion in a predictive situation is especially difficult for near-source areas, but that is the distance at which the hazard is the greatest. The basis of a "physical-based" approach is ground-motion syntheses derived from physics and an understanding of the earthquake process. This is an overview paper and results from previous studies are used to make the case for these conclusions. Our premise is that 50 years of strong motion records is insufficient to capture all possible ranges of site and propagation path conditions, rupture processes, and spatial geometric relationships between source and site. Predicting future earthquake scenarios is necessary; models that have little or no physical basis but have been tested and adjusted to fit available observations can only "predict" what happened in the past, which should be considered description as opposed to prediction. We have developed a methodology for synthesizing physics-based broadband ground motion that incorporates the effects of realistic earthquake rupture along specific faults and the actual geology between the source and site.

Glacier quakes mimicking volcanic earthquakes: The challenge of monitoring ice-clad volcanoes and some solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allstadt, K.; Carmichael, J. D.; Malone, S. D.; Bodin, P.; Vidale, J. E.; Moran, S. C.

2012-12-01

Swarms of repeating earthquakes at volcanoes are often a sign of volcanic unrest. However, glaciers also can generate repeating seismic signals, so detecting unrest at glacier-covered volcanoes can be a challenge. We have found that multi-day swarms of shallow, low-frequency, repeating earthquakes occur regularly at Mount Rainier, a heavily glaciated stratovolcano in Washington, but that most swarms had escaped recognition until recently. Typically such earthquakes were too small to be routinely detected by the seismic network and were often buried in the noise on visual records, making the few swarms that had been detected seem more unusual and significant at the time they were identified. Our comprehensive search for repeating earthquakes through the past 10 years of continuous seismic data uncovered more than 30 distinct swarms of low-frequency earthquakes at Rainier, each consisting of hundreds to thousands of events. We found that these swarms locate high on the glacier-covered edifice, occur almost exclusively between late fall and early spring, and that their onset coincides with heavy snowfalls. We interpret the correlation with snowfall to indicate a seismically observable glacial response to snow loading. Efforts are underway to confirm this by monitoring glacier motion before and after a major snowfall event using ground based radar interferometry. Clearly, if the earthquakes in these swarms reflect a glacial source, then they are not directly related to volcanic activity. However, from an operational perspective they make volcano monitoring difficult because they closely resemble earthquakes that often precede and accompany volcanic eruptions. Because we now have a better sense of the background level of such swarms and know that their occurrence is seasonal and correlated with snowfall, it will now be easier to recognize if future swarms at Rainier are unusual and possibly related to volcanic activity. To methodically monitor for such unusual activity, we are implementing an automatic detection algorithm to continuously search for repeating earthquakes at Mount Rainier, an algorithm that we eventually intend to apply to other Cascade volcanoes. We propose that a comprehensive routine that characterizes background levels of repeating earthquakes and the degree of correlation with weather and seasonal forcing, combined with real-time monitoring for repeating earthquakes, will provide a means to more rapidly discriminate between glacier seismicity and seismicity related to volcanic activity on monitored glacier-clad volcanoes.

Are landslides in the New Madrid Seismic Zone the result of the 1811-1812 earthquake sequence or multiple prehistoric earthquakes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gold, Ryan; Williams, Robert; Jibson, Randall

2014-05-01

Previous research indicates that deep translational and rotational landslides along the bluffs east of the Mississippi River in western Tennessee were triggered by the M7-8 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquake sequence. Analysis of recently acquired airborne LiDAR data suggests the possibility of multiple generations of landslides, possibly triggered by older, similar magnitude earthquake sequences, which paleoliquifaction studies show occurred circa 1450 and about 900 A.D. Using these LiDAR data, we have remapped recent landslides along two sections of the bluffs: a northern section near Reelfoot Lake and a southern section near Meeman-Shelby State Park (20 km north of Memphis, Tennessee). The bare-earth, digital-elevation models derived from these LiDAR data have a resolution of 0.5 m and reveal valuable details of topography given the region's dense forest canopy. Our mapping confirms much of the previous landslide mapping, refutes a few previously mapped landslides, and reveals new, undetected landslides. Importantly, we observe that the landslide deposits in the Reelfoot region are characterized by rotated blocks with sharp uphill-facing scarps and steep headwall scarps, indicating youthful, relatively recent movement. In comparison, landslide deposits near Meeman-Shelby are muted in appearance, with headwall scarps and rotated blocks that are extensively dissected by gullies, indicating they might be an older generation of landslides. Because of these differences in morphology, we hypothesize that the landslides near Reelfoot Lake were triggered by the 1811-1812 earthquake sequence and that landslides near Meeman-Shelby resulted from shaking associated with earlier earthquake sequences. To test this hypothesis, we will evaluate differences in bluff height, local geology, vegetation, and proximity to known seismic sources. Furthermore, planned fieldwork will help evaluate whether the observed landslide displacements occurred in single earthquakes or if they might result from episodic movements associated with a sequence of multiple prehistoric earthquake. This study highlights the value of high-resolution, bare-earth topographic data to investigate the secondary effects of groundshaking in stable continental regions, where primary tectonic deformation associated with large earthquakes is commonly obscure or subtle.

Seismic hazard analysis for Jayapura city, Papua

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robiana, R., E-mail: robiana-geo104@yahoo.com; Cipta, A.

Jayapura city had destructive earthquake which occurred on June 25, 1976 with the maximum intensity VII MMI scale. Probabilistic methods are used to determine the earthquake hazard by considering all possible earthquakes that can occur in this region. Earthquake source models using three types of source models are subduction model; comes from the New Guinea Trench subduction zone (North Papuan Thrust), fault models; derived from fault Yapen, TareraAiduna, Wamena, Memberamo, Waipago, Jayapura, and Jayawijaya, and 7 background models to accommodate unknown earthquakes. Amplification factor using geomorphological approaches are corrected by the measurement data. This data is related to rock typemore » and depth of soft soil. Site class in Jayapura city can be grouped into classes B, C, D and E, with the amplification between 0.5 – 6. Hazard maps are presented with a 10% probability of earthquake occurrence within a period of 500 years for the dominant periods of 0.0, 0.2, and 1.0 seconds.« less

Rupture, waves and earthquakes.

PubMed

Uenishi, Koji

2017-01-01

Normally, an earthquake is considered as a phenomenon of wave energy radiation by rupture (fracture) of solid Earth. However, the physics of dynamic process around seismic sources, which may play a crucial role in the occurrence of earthquakes and generation of strong waves, has not been fully understood yet. Instead, much of former investigation in seismology evaluated earthquake characteristics in terms of kinematics that does not directly treat such dynamic aspects and usually excludes the influence of high-frequency wave components over 1 Hz. There are countless valuable research outcomes obtained through this kinematics-based approach, but "extraordinary" phenomena that are difficult to be explained by this conventional description have been found, for instance, on the occasion of the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu, Japan, earthquake, and more detailed study on rupture and wave dynamics, namely, possible mechanical characteristics of (1) rupture development around seismic sources, (2) earthquake-induced structural failures and (3) wave interaction that connects rupture (1) and failures (2), would be indispensable.

Rupture, waves and earthquakes

PubMed Central

UENISHI, Koji

2017-01-01

Normally, an earthquake is considered as a phenomenon of wave energy radiation by rupture (fracture) of solid Earth. However, the physics of dynamic process around seismic sources, which may play a crucial role in the occurrence of earthquakes and generation of strong waves, has not been fully understood yet. Instead, much of former investigation in seismology evaluated earthquake characteristics in terms of kinematics that does not directly treat such dynamic aspects and usually excludes the influence of high-frequency wave components over 1 Hz. There are countless valuable research outcomes obtained through this kinematics-based approach, but “extraordinary” phenomena that are difficult to be explained by this conventional description have been found, for instance, on the occasion of the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu, Japan, earthquake, and more detailed study on rupture and wave dynamics, namely, possible mechanical characteristics of (1) rupture development around seismic sources, (2) earthquake-induced structural failures and (3) wave interaction that connects rupture (1) and failures (2), would be indispensable. PMID:28077808

Source parameter inversion of compound earthquakes on GPU/CPU hybrid platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Ni, S.; Chen, W.

2012-12-01

Source parameter of earthquakes is essential problem in seismology. Accurate and timely determination of the earthquake parameters (such as moment, depth, strike, dip and rake of fault planes) is significant for both the rupture dynamics and ground motion prediction or simulation. And the rupture process study, especially for the moderate and large earthquakes, is essential as the more detailed kinematic study has became the routine work of seismologists. However, among these events, some events behave very specially and intrigue seismologists. These earthquakes usually consist of two similar size sub-events which occurred with very little time interval, such as mb4.5 Dec.9, 2003 in Virginia. The studying of these special events including the source parameter determination of each sub-events will be helpful to the understanding of earthquake dynamics. However, seismic signals of two distinctive sources are mixed up bringing in the difficulty of inversion. As to common events, the method(Cut and Paste) has been proven effective for resolving source parameters, which jointly use body wave and surface wave with independent time shift and weights. CAP could resolve fault orientation and focal depth using a grid search algorithm. Based on this method, we developed an algorithm(MUL_CAP) to simultaneously acquire parameters of two distinctive events. However, the simultaneous inversion of both sub-events make the computation very time consuming, so we develop a hybrid GPU and CPU version of CAP(HYBRID_CAP) to improve the computation efficiency. Thanks to advantages on multiple dimension storage and processing in GPU, we obtain excellent performance of the revised code on GPU-CPU combined architecture and the speedup factors can be as high as 40x-90x compared to classical cap on traditional CPU architecture.As the benchmark, we take the synthetics as observation and inverse the source parameters of two given sub-events and the inversion results are very consistent with the true parameters. For the events in Virginia, USA on 9 Dec, 2003, we re-invert source parameters and detailed analysis of regional waveform indicates that Virginia earthquake included two sub-events which are Mw4.05 and Mw4.25 at the same depth of 10km with focal mechanism of strike65/dip32/rake135, which are consistent with previous study. Moreover, compared to traditional two-source model method, MUL_CAP is more automatic with no need for human intervention.

New Field Observations About 19 August 1966 Varto earthquake, Eastern Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurboga, S.

2013-12-01

Some destructive earthquakes in the past and even in the recent have several mysteries. For example, magnitude, epicenter location, faulting type and source fault of an earthquake have not been detected yet. One of these mysteries events is 19 August 1966 Varto earthquake in Turkey. 19 August 1966 Varto earthquake (Ms = 6.8) was an extra ordinary event at the 40 km east of junction between NAFS and EAFS which are two seismogenic system and active structures shaping the tectonics of Turkey. This earthquake sourced from Varto fault zone which are approximately 4 km width and 43 km length. It consists of faults which have parallel to sub-parallel, closely-spaced, north and south-dipping up to 85°-88° dip amount. Although this event has 6.8 (Ms) magnitude that is big enough to create a surface rupture, there was no clear surface deformation had been detected. This creates the controversial issue about the source fault and the mechanism of the earthquake. According to Wallace (1968) the type of faulting is right-lateral. On the other hand, McKenzie (1972) proposed right-lateral movement with thrust component by using the focal mechanism solution. The recent work done by Sançar et al. (2011) claimed that type of faulting is pure right-lateral strike-slip and there is no any surface rupture during the earthquake. Furthermore, they suggested that Varto segment in the Varto Fault Zone was most probably not broken in 1966 earthquake. This study is purely focused on the field geology and trenching survey for the investigation of 1966 Varto earthquake. Four fault segments have been mapped along the Varto fault zone: Varto, Sazlica, Leylekdağ and Çayçati segments. Because of the thick volcanic cover on the area around Varto, surface rupture has only been detected by trenching survey. Two trenching survey have been applied along the Yayikli and Ağaçalti faults in the Varto fault zone. Consequently, detailed geological work in the field and trenching survey indicate that a) source of 1966 earthquake is Varto segment in Varto Fault Zone, b) many of the surface deformations observed just after the earthquake is lateral-spreading and small landslides, c) surface rupture was created with 10 cm displacement at the surface with thrust component. Because of the volcanic cover and activation of many faults, ground surface rupture could not be seen clearly which has been expected after 6.8 magnitude earthquake, d) faulting type is right-lateral component with thrust component. Keywords: 1966 Varto earthquake, paleoseismology, right-lateral fault with thrust component.

Toward real-time regional earthquake simulation of Taiwan earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, S.; Liu, Q.; Tromp, J.; Komatitsch, D.; Liang, W.; Huang, B.

2013-12-01

We developed a Real-time Online earthquake Simulation system (ROS) to simulate regional earthquakes in Taiwan. The ROS uses a centroid moment tensor solution of seismic events from a Real-time Moment Tensor monitoring system (RMT), which provides all the point source parameters including the event origin time, hypocentral location, moment magnitude and focal mechanism within 2 minutes after the occurrence of an earthquake. Then, all of the source parameters are automatically forwarded to the ROS to perform an earthquake simulation, which is based on a spectral-element method (SEM). We have improved SEM mesh quality by introducing a thin high-resolution mesh layer near the surface to accommodate steep and rapidly varying topography. The mesh for the shallow sedimentary basin is adjusted to reflect its complex geometry and sharp lateral velocity contrasts. The grid resolution at the surface is about 545 m, which is sufficient to resolve topography and tomography data for simulations accurate up to 1.0 Hz. The ROS is also an infrastructural service, making online earthquake simulation feasible. Users can conduct their own earthquake simulation by providing a set of source parameters through the ROS webpage. For visualization, a ShakeMovie and ShakeMap are produced during the simulation. The time needed for one event is roughly 3 minutes for a 70 sec ground motion simulation. The ROS is operated online at the Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica (http://ros.earth.sinica.edu.tw/). Our long-term goal for the ROS system is to contribute to public earth science outreach and to realize seismic ground motion prediction in real-time.

Source depth dependence of micro-tsunamis recorded with ocean-bottom pressure gauges: The January 28, 2000 Mw 6.8 earthquake off Nemuro Peninsula, Japan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hirata, K.; Takahashi, H.; Geist, E.; Satake, K.; Tanioka, Y.; Sugioka, H.; Mikada, H.

2003-01-01

Micro-tsunami waves with a maximum amplitude of 4-6 mm were detected with the ocean-bottom pressure gauges on a cabled deep seafloor observatory south of Hokkaido, Japan, following the January 28, 2000 earthquake (Mw 6.8) in the southern Kuril subduction zone. We model the observed micro-tsunami and estimate the focal depth and other source parameters such as fault length and amount of slip using grid searching with the least-squares method. The source depth and stress drop for the January 2000 earthquake are estimated to be 50 km and 7 MPa, respectively, with possible ranges of 45-55 km and 4-13 MPa. Focal depth of typical inter-plate earthquakes in this region ranges from 10 to 20 km and stress drop of inter-plate earthquakes generally is around 3 MPa. The source depth and stress drop estimates suggest that the earthquake was an intra-slab event in the subducting Pacific plate, rather than an inter-plate event. In addition, for a prescribed fault width of 30 km, the fault length is estimated to be 15 km, with possible ranges of 10-20 km, which is the same as the previously determined aftershock distribution. The corresponding estimate for seismic moment is 2.7x1019 Nm with possible ranges of 2.3x1019-3.2x1019Nm. Standard tide gauges along the nearby coast did not record any tsunami signal. High-precision ocean-bottom pressure measurements offshore thus make it possible to determine fault parameters of moderate-sized earthquakes in subduction zones using open-ocean tsunami waveforms. Published by Elsevier Science B. V.

Complex earthquake rupture and local tsunamis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.

2002-01-01

In contrast to far-field tsunami amplitudes that are fairly well predicted by the seismic moment of subduction zone earthquakes, there exists significant variation in the scaling of local tsunami amplitude with respect to seismic moment. From a global catalog of tsunami runup observations this variability is greatest for the most frequently occuring tsunamigenic subduction zone earthquakes in the magnitude range of 7 < Mw < 8.5. Variability in local tsunami runup scaling can be ascribed to tsunami source parameters that are independent of seismic moment: variations in the water depth in the source region, the combination of higher slip and lower shear modulus at shallow depth, and rupture complexity in the form of heterogeneous slip distribution patterns. The focus of this study is on the effect that rupture complexity has on the local tsunami wave field. A wide range of slip distribution patterns are generated using a stochastic, self-affine source model that is consistent with the falloff of far-field seismic displacement spectra at high frequencies. The synthetic slip distributions generated by the stochastic source model are discretized and the vertical displacement fields from point source elastic dislocation expressions are superimposed to compute the coseismic vertical displacement field. For shallow subduction zone earthquakes it is demonstrated that self-affine irregularities of the slip distribution result in significant variations in local tsunami amplitude. The effects of rupture complexity are less pronounced for earthquakes at greater depth or along faults with steep dip angles. For a test region along the Pacific coast of central Mexico, peak nearshore tsunami amplitude is calculated for a large number (N = 100) of synthetic slip distribution patterns, all with identical seismic moment (Mw = 8.1). Analysis of the results indicates that for earthquakes of a fixed location, geometry, and seismic moment, peak nearshore tsunami amplitude can vary by a factor of 3 or more. These results indicate that there is substantially more variation in the local tsunami wave field derived from the inherent complexity subduction zone earthquakes than predicted by a simple elastic dislocation model. Probabilistic methods that take into account variability in earthquake rupture processes are likely to yield more accurate assessments of tsunami hazards.

Analysis of the similar epicenter earthquakes on 22 January 2013 and 01 June 2013, Central Gulf of Suez, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toni, Mostafa; Barth, Andreas; Ali, Sherif M.; Wenzel, Friedemann

2016-09-01

On 22 January 2013 an earthquake with local magnitude ML 4.1 occurred in the central part of the Gulf of Suez. Six months later on 1 June 2013 another earthquake with local magnitude ML 5.1 took place at the same epicenter and different depths. These two perceptible events were recorded and localized by the Egyptian National Seismological Network (ENSN) and additional networks in the region. The purpose of this study is to determine focal mechanisms and source parameters of both earthquakes to analyze their tectonic relation. We determine the focal mechanisms by applying moment tensor inversion and first motion analysis of P- and S-waves. Both sources reveal oblique focal mechanisms with normal faulting and strike-slip components on differently oriented faults. The source mechanism of the larger event on 1 June in combination with the location of aftershock sequence indicates a left-lateral slip on N-S striking fault structure in 21 km depth that is in conformity with the NE-SW extensional Shmin (orientation of minimum horizontal compressional stress) and the local fault pattern. On the other hand, the smaller earthquake on 22 January with a shallower hypocenter in 16 km depth seems to have happened on a NE-SW striking fault plane sub-parallel to Shmin. Thus, here an energy release on a transfer fault connecting dominant rift-parallel structures might have resulted in a stress transfer, triggering the later ML 5.1 earthquake. Following Brune's model and using displacement spectra, we calculate the dynamic source parameters for the two events. The estimated source parameters for the 22 January 2013 and 1 June 2013 earthquakes are fault length (470 and 830 m), stress drop (1.40 and 2.13 MPa), and seismic moment (5.47E+21 and 6.30E+22 dyn cm) corresponding to moment magnitudes of MW 3.8 and 4.6, respectively.

Software Toolbox Development for Rapid Earthquake Source Optimisation Combining InSAR Data and Seismic Waveforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isken, Marius P.; Sudhaus, Henriette; Heimann, Sebastian; Steinberg, Andreas; Bathke, Hannes M.

2017-04-01

We present a modular open-source software framework (pyrocko, kite, grond; http://pyrocko.org) for rapid InSAR data post-processing and modelling of tectonic and volcanic displacement fields derived from satellite data. Our aim is to ease and streamline the joint optimisation of earthquake observations from InSAR and GPS data together with seismological waveforms for an improved estimation of the ruptures' parameters. Through this approach we can provide finite models of earthquake ruptures and therefore contribute to a timely and better understanding of earthquake kinematics. The new kite module enables a fast processing of unwrapped InSAR scenes for source modelling: the spatial sub-sampling and data error/noise estimation for the interferogram is evaluated automatically and interactively. The rupture's near-field surface displacement data are then combined with seismic far-field waveforms and jointly modelled using the pyrocko.gf framwork, which allows for fast forward modelling based on pre-calculated elastodynamic and elastostatic Green's functions. Lastly the grond module supplies a bootstrap-based probabilistic (Monte Carlo) joint optimisation to estimate the parameters and uncertainties of a finite-source earthquake rupture model. We describe the developed and applied methods as an effort to establish a semi-automatic processing and modelling chain. The framework is applied to Sentinel-1 data from the 2016 Central Italy earthquake sequence, where we present the earthquake mechanism and rupture model from which we derive regions of increased coulomb stress. The open source software framework is developed at GFZ Potsdam and at the University of Kiel, Germany, it is written in Python and C programming languages. The toolbox architecture is modular and independent, and can be utilized flexibly for a variety of geophysical problems. This work is conducted within the BridGeS project (http://www.bridges.uni-kiel.de) funded by the German Research Foundation DFG through an Emmy-Noether grant.

Ground Motion Prediction for M7+ scenarios on the San Andreas Fault using the Virtual Earthquake Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denolle, M.; Dunham, E. M.; Prieto, G.; Beroza, G. C.

2013-05-01

There is no clearer example of the increase in hazard due to prolonged and amplified shaking in sedimentary, than the case of Mexico City in the 1985 Michoacan earthquake. It is critically important to identify what other cities might be susceptible to similar basin amplification effects. Physics-based simulations in 3D crustal structure can be used to model and anticipate those effects, but they rely on our knowledge of the complexity of the medium. We propose a parallel approach to validate ground motion simulations using the ambient seismic field. We compute the Earth's impulse response combining the ambient seismic field and coda-wave enforcing causality and symmetry constraints. We correct the surface impulse responses to account for the source depth, mechanism and duration using a 1D approximation of the local surface-wave excitation. We call the new responses virtual earthquakes. We validate the ground motion predicted from the virtual earthquakes against moderate earthquakes in southern California. We then combine temporary seismic stations on the southern San Andreas Fault and extend the point source approximation of the Virtual Earthquake Approach to model finite kinematic ruptures. We confirm the coupling between source directivity and amplification in downtown Los Angeles seen in simulations.

Infrasound associated with the deep M 7.3 northeastern China earthquake of June 28, 2002

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Che, Il-Young; Kim, Geunyoung; Le Pichon, Alexis

2013-02-01

On 28 June, 2002, a deep-focus (566 km) earthquake with a moment magnitude of 7.3 occurred in the China-Russia-North Korea border region. Despite its deep focus, the earthquake produced an infrasound signal that was observed by the remote infrasound array (CHNAR), 682 km from the epicenter, in South Korea. Coherent infrasound signals were detected sequentially at the receiver, with different arrival times and azimuths indicating that the signals were generated both near the epicenter and elsewhere. On the basis of the azimuth, arrival time measurements, and atmospheric ray simulation results, the source area of the infrasonic signals that arrived earlier were located along the eastern coastal areas of North Korea and Russia, whereas later signals were sourced throughout Japan. The geographically-constrained, and discrete, distribution of the sources identified is explained by infrasound propagation effects caused by a westward zonal wind that was active when the event occurred. The amplitude of the deep quake's signal was equivalent to that of a shallow earthquake with a magnitude of approximately 5. This study expands the breadth of seismically-associated infrasound to include deep earthquakes, and also supports the possibility that infrasound measurements could help determine the depth of earthquakes.

Optimal Design for Placements of Tsunami Observing Systems to Accurately Characterize the Inducing Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulia, Iyan E.; Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Satake, Kenji

2017-12-01

Recently, there are numerous tsunami observation networks deployed in several major tsunamigenic regions. However, guidance on where to optimally place the measurement devices is limited. This study presents a methodological approach to select strategic observation locations for the purpose of tsunami source characterizations, particularly in terms of the fault slip distribution. Initially, we identify favorable locations and determine the initial number of observations. These locations are selected based on extrema of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) spatial modes. To further improve the accuracy, we apply an optimization algorithm called a mesh adaptive direct search to remove redundant measurement locations from the EOF-generated points. We test the proposed approach using multiple hypothetical tsunami sources around the Nankai Trough, Japan. The results suggest that the optimized observation points can produce more accurate fault slip estimates with considerably less number of observations compared to the existing tsunami observation networks.

Probabilistic seismic demand analysis using advanced ground motion intensity measures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tothong, P.; Luco, N.

2007-01-01

One of the objectives in performance-based earthquake engineering is to quantify the seismic reliability of a structure at a site. For that purpose, probabilistic seismic demand analysis (PSDA) is used as a tool to estimate the mean annual frequency of exceeding a specified value of a structural demand parameter (e.g. interstorey drift). This paper compares and contrasts the use, in PSDA, of certain advanced scalar versus vector and conventional scalar ground motion intensity measures (IMs). One of the benefits of using a well-chosen IM is that more accurate evaluations of seismic performance are achieved without the need to perform detailed ground motion record selection for the nonlinear dynamic structural analyses involved in PSDA (e.g. record selection with respect to seismic parameters such as earthquake magnitude, source-to-site distance, and ground motion epsilon). For structural demands that are dominated by a first mode of vibration, using inelastic spectral displacement (Sdi) can be advantageous relative to the conventionally used elastic spectral acceleration (Sa) and the vector IM consisting of Sa and epsilon (??). This paper demonstrates that this is true for ordinary and for near-source pulse-like earthquake records. The latter ground motions cannot be adequately characterized by either Sa alone or the vector of Sa and ??. For structural demands with significant higher-mode contributions (under either of the two types of ground motions), even Sdi (alone) is not sufficient, so an advanced scalar IM that additionally incorporates higher modes is used.

Near-source high-rate GPS, strong motion and InSAR observations to image the 2015 Lefkada (Greece) Earthquake rupture history.

PubMed

Avallone, Antonio; Cirella, Antonella; Cheloni, Daniele; Tolomei, Cristiano; Theodoulidis, Nikos; Piatanesi, Alessio; Briole, Pierre; Ganas, Athanassios

2017-09-04

The 2015/11/17 Lefkada (Greece) earthquake ruptured a segment of the Cephalonia Transform Fault (CTF) where probably the penultimate major event was in 1948. Using near-source strong motion and high sampling rate GPS data and Sentinel-1A SAR images on two tracks, we performed the inversion for the geometry, slip distribution and rupture history of the causative fault with a three-step self-consistent procedure, in which every step provided input parameters for the next one. Our preferred model results in a ~70° ESE-dipping and ~13° N-striking fault plane, with a strike-slip mechanism (rake ~169°) in agreement with the CTF tectonic regime. This model shows a bilateral propagation spanning ~9 s with the activation of three main slip patches, characterized by rise time and peak slip velocity in the ranges 2.5-3.5 s and 1.4-2.4 m/s, respectively, corresponding to 1.2-1.8 m of slip which is mainly concentrated in the shallower (<10 km) southern half of the causative fault. The inferred slip distribution and the resulting seismic moment (M 0  = 1.05 × 10 19 N m) suggest a magnitude of M w 6.6. Our best solution suggests that the occurrence of large (M w  > 6) earthquakes to the northern and to the southern boundaries of the 2015 causative fault cannot be excluded.

Modeling potential tsunami sources for deposits near Unalaska Island, Aleutian Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Selle, S.; Gelfenbaum, G. R.

2013-12-01

In regions with little seismic data and short historical records of earthquakes, we can use preserved tsunami deposits and tsunami modeling to infer if, when and where tsunamigenic earthquakes have occurred. The Aleutian-Alaska subduction zone in the region offshore of Unalaska Island is one such region where the historical and paleo-seismicity is poorly understood. This section of the subduction zone is not thought to have ruptured historically in a large earthquake, leading some to designate the region as a seismic gap. By modeling various historical and synthetic earthquake sources, we investigate whether or not tsunamis that left deposits near Unalaska Island were generated by earthquakes rupturing through Unalaska Gap. Preliminary field investigations near the eastern end of Unalaska Island have identified paleotsunami deposits well above sea level, suggesting that multiple tsunamis in the last 5,000 years have flooded low-lying areas over 1 km inland. Other indicators of tsunami inundation, such as a breached cobble beach berm and driftwood logs stranded far inland, were tentatively attributed to the March 9, 1957 tsunami, which had reported runup of 13 to 22 meters on Umnak and Unimak Islands, to the west and east of Unalaska. In order to determine if tsunami inundation could have reached the runup markers observed on Unalaska, we modeled the 1957 tsunami using GeoCLAW, a numerical model that simulates tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation. The published rupture orientation and slip distribution for the MW 8.6, 1957 earthquake (Johnson et al., 1994) was used as the tsunami source, which delineates a 1200 km long rupture zone along the Aleutian trench from Delarof Island to Unimak Island. Model results indicate that runup and inundation from this particular source are too low to account for the runup markers observed in the field, because slip is concentrated in the western half of the rupture zone, far from Unalaska. To ascertain if any realistic, earthquake-generated tsunami could account for the observed runup, we modeled tsunami inundation from synthetic MW 9.2 earthquakes rupturing along the trench between Atka and Unimak Islands, which indicate that the deposit runup observed on Unalaska is possible from a source of this size and orientation. Further modeling efforts will examine the April 1, 1946 Aleutian tsunami, as well as other synthetic tsunamigenic earthquake sources of varying size and location, which may provide insight into the rupture history of the Aleutian-Alaska subduction zone, especially in combination with more data from paleotsunami deposits. Johnson, Jean M., Tanioka, Yuichiro, Ruff, Larry J., Satake, Kenji, Kanamori, Hiroo, Sykes, Lynn R. "The 1957 great Aleutian earthquake." Pure and Applied Geophysics 142.1 (1994): 3-28.

Seismo-Acoustic Generation by Earthquakes and Explosions and Near-Regional Propagation

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-30

earthquakes generate infrasound . Three infrasonic arrays in Utah (BGU, EPU, and NOQ), one in Nevada (NVIAR), and one in Wyoming (PDIAR) recorded...Katz, and C. Hayward (2009b). The F-detector Revisited: An Improved Strategy for Signal Detection at Seismic and Infrasound Arrays , Bull. Seism. Soc...sources. RESEARCH ACCOMPLISHED Infrasound Observations of the Wells Earthquake Most studies documenting earthquake - generated infrasound are based

Seismotectonics of the Eastern Himalayan System and Indo-Burman Convergence Zone Using Seismic Waveform Inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, A.; Mitra, S.; Suresh, G.

2014-12-01

The Eastern Himalayan System (east of 88°E) is distinct from the rest of the India-Eurasia continental collision, due to a wider zone of distributed deformation, oblique convergence across two orthogonal plate boundaries and near absence of foreland basin sedimentary strata. To understand the seismotectonics of this region we study the spatial distribution and source mechanism of earthquakes originating within Eastern Himalaya, northeast India and Indo-Burman Convergence Zone (IBCZ). We compute focal mechanism of 32 moderate-to-large earthquakes (mb >=5.4) by modeling teleseismic P- and SH-waveforms, from GDSN stations, using least-squares inversion algorithm; and 7 small-to-moderate earthquakes (3.5<= mb <5.4) by modeling local P- and S-waveforms, from the NorthEast India Telemetered Network, using non-linear grid search algorithm. We also include source mechanisms from previous studies, either computed by waveform inversion or by first motion polarity from analog data. Depth distribution of modeled earthquakes reveal that the seismogenic layer beneath northeast India is ~45km thick. From source mechanisms we observe that moderate earthquakes in northeast India are spatially clustered in five zones with distinct mechanisms: (a) thrust earthquakes within the Eastern Himalayan wedge, on north dipping low angle faults; (b) thrust earthquakes along the northern edge of Shillong Plateau, on high angle south dipping fault; (c) dextral strike-slip earthquakes along Kopili fault zone, between Shillong Plateau and Mikir Hills, extending southeast beneath Naga Fold belts; (d) dextral strike-slip earthquakes within Bengal Basin, immediately south of Shillong Plateau; and (e) deep focus (>50 km) thrust earthquakes within IBCZ. Combining with GPS geodetic observations, it is evident that the N20E convergence between India and Tibet is accommodated as elastic strain both within eastern Himalaya and regions surrounding the Shillong Plateau. We hypothesize that the strike-slip earthquakes south of the Plateau occur on re-activated continental rifts paralleling the Eocene hinge zone. Distribution of earthquake hypocenters across the IBCZ reveal active subduction of the Indian plate beneath Burma micro-plate.

Earthquake Damage Assessment Using Objective Image Segmentation: A Case Study of 2010 Haiti Earthquake

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oommen, Thomas; Rebbapragada, Umaa; Cerminaro, Daniel

2012-01-01

In this study, we perform a case study on imagery from the Haiti earthquake that evaluates a novel object-based approach for characterizing earthquake induced surface effects of liquefaction against a traditional pixel based change technique. Our technique, which combines object-oriented change detection with discriminant/categorical functions, shows the power of distinguishing earthquake-induced surface effects from changes in buildings using the object properties concavity, convexity, orthogonality and rectangularity. Our results suggest that object-based analysis holds promise in automatically extracting earthquake-induced damages from high-resolution aerial/satellite imagery.

Seismic Stability Evaluation of Alben Barkley Dam and Lake Project. Volume 2. Geological and Seismological Evaluation.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-06-01

30 APPENDIX A: EARTHQUAKES AND GEOLOGY OF THE BARKLEY DAM AREA IN RELATION TO THE NEW MADRID EARTHQUAKE REGION TO...Dam is about 115 km from the source area of the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-1812. Four major earthquakes are deduced to have occurred (Street and...hundreds of aftershocks, a dozen of which were felt over much of the central United States. Other major earthquakes that have happened in the New Madrid

Overview of Historical Earthquake Document Database in Japan and Future Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishiyama, A.; Satake, K.

2014-12-01

In Japan, damage and disasters from historical large earthquakes have been documented and preserved. Compilation of historical earthquake documents started in the early 20th century and 33 volumes of historical document source books (about 27,000 pages) have been published. However, these source books are not effectively utilized for researchers due to a contamination of low-reliability historical records and a difficulty for keyword searching by characters and dates. To overcome these problems and to promote historical earthquake studies in Japan, construction of text database started in the 21 century. As for historical earthquakes from the beginning of the 7th century to the early 17th century, "Online Database of Historical Documents in Japanese Earthquakes and Eruptions in the Ancient and Medieval Ages" (Ishibashi, 2009) has been already constructed. They investigated the source books or original texts of historical literature, emended the descriptions, and assigned the reliability of each historical document on the basis of written age. Another database compiled the historical documents for seven damaging earthquakes occurred along the Sea of Japan coast in Honshu, central Japan in the Edo period (from the beginning of the 17th century to the middle of the 19th century) and constructed text database and seismic intensity data base. These are now publicized on the web (written only in Japanese). However, only about 9 % of the earthquake source books have been digitized so far. Therefore, we plan to digitize all of the remaining historical documents by the research-program which started in 2014. The specification of the data base will be similar for previous ones. We also plan to combine this database with liquefaction traces database, which will be constructed by other research program, by adding the location information described in historical documents. Constructed database would be utilized to estimate the distributions of seismic intensities and tsunami heights.

Earthquake source nucleation process in the zone of a permanently creeping deep fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lykov, V. I.; Mostryukov, A. O.

2008-10-01

The worldwide practice of earthquake prediction, whose beginning relates to the 1970s, shows that spatial manifestations of various precursors under real seismotectonic conditions are very irregular. As noted in [Kurbanov et al., 1980], zones of bending, intersection, and branching of deep faults, where conditions are favorable for increasing tangential tectonic stresses, serve as “natural amplifiers” of precursory effects. The earthquake of September 28, 2004, occurred on the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas deep fault in the area of a local bending of its plane. The fault segment about 60 km long and its vicinities are the oldest prognostic area in California. Results of observations before and after the earthquake were promptly analyzed and published in a special issue of Seismological Research Letters (2005, Vol. 76, no. 1). We have an original method enabling the monitoring of the integral rigidity of seismically active rock massifs. The integral rigidity is determined from the relative numbers of brittle and viscous failure acts during the formation of source ruptures of background earthquakes in a given massif. Fracture mechanisms are diagnosed from the steepness of the first arrival of the direct P wave. Principles underlying our method are described in [Lykov and Mostryukov, 1996, 2001, 2003]. Results of monitoring have been directly displayed at the site of the Laboratory ( http://wwwbrk.adm.yar.ru/russian/1_512/index.html ) since the mid-1990s. It seems that this information has not attracted the attention of American seismologists. This paper assesses the informativeness of the rigidity monitoring at the stage of formation of a strong earthquake source in relation to other methods.

An Earthquake Rupture Forecast model for central Italy submitted to CSEP project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pace, B.; Peruzza, L.

2009-04-01

We defined a seismogenic source model for central Italy and computed the relative forecast scenario, in order to submit the results to the CSEP (Collaboratory for the study of Earthquake Predictability, www.cseptesting.org) project. The goal of CSEP project is developing a virtual, distributed laboratory that supports a wide range of scientific prediction experiments in multiple regional or global natural laboratories, and Italy is the first region in Europe for which fully prospective testing is planned. The model we propose is essentially the Layered Seismogenic Source for Central Italy (LaSS-CI) we published in 2006 (Pace et al., 2006). It is based on three different layers of sources: the first one collects the individual faults liable to generate major earthquakes (M >5.5); the second layer is given by the instrumental seismicity analysis of the past two decades, which allows us to evaluate the background seismicity (M ~<5.0). The third layer utilizes all the instrumental earthquakes and the historical events not correlated to known structures (4.5

Inversion of source mechanism of 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake by three-dimensional FEM Green‧s function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Hai-Rong; Song, Hui-Zhen

1999-05-01

Based on three-dimensional joint finite element, this paper discusses the theory and methodology about inversion of geodetic data. The FEM and inversion formula is given in detail; also a related code is developed. By use of the Green’s function about 3-D FEM, we invert geodetic measurements of coseismic deformation of the 1989 M S=7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake to determine its source mechanism. The result indicates that the slip on the fault plane is very heterogeneous. The maximum slip and shear stress are located about 10 km to northwest of the earthquake source; the stress drop is about more than 1 MPa.

Mechanism of the 2015 volcanic tsunami earthquake near Torishima, Japan

PubMed Central

Satake, Kenji

2018-01-01

Tsunami earthquakes are a group of enigmatic earthquakes generating disproportionally large tsunamis relative to seismic magnitude. These events occur most typically near deep-sea trenches. Tsunami earthquakes occurring approximately every 10 years near Torishima on the Izu-Bonin arc are another example. Seismic and tsunami waves from the 2015 event [Mw (moment magnitude) = 5.7] were recorded by an offshore seafloor array of 10 pressure gauges, ~100 km away from the epicenter. We made an array analysis of dispersive tsunamis to locate the tsunami source within the submarine Smith Caldera. The tsunami simulation from a large caldera-floor uplift of ~1.5 m with a small peripheral depression yielded waveforms remarkably similar to the observations. The estimated central uplift, 1.5 m, is ~20 times larger than that inferred from the seismologically determined non–double-couple source. Thus, the tsunami observation is not compatible with the published seismic source model taken at face value. However, given the indeterminacy of Mzx, Mzy, and M{tensile} of a shallow moment tensor source, it may be possible to find a source mechanism with efficient tsunami but inefficient seismic radiation that can satisfactorily explain both the tsunami and seismic observations, but this question remains unresolved. PMID:29740604

Mechanism of the 2015 volcanic tsunami earthquake near Torishima, Japan.

PubMed

Fukao, Yoshio; Sandanbata, Osamu; Sugioka, Hiroko; Ito, Aki; Shiobara, Hajime; Watada, Shingo; Satake, Kenji

2018-04-01

Tsunami earthquakes are a group of enigmatic earthquakes generating disproportionally large tsunamis relative to seismic magnitude. These events occur most typically near deep-sea trenches. Tsunami earthquakes occurring approximately every 10 years near Torishima on the Izu-Bonin arc are another example. Seismic and tsunami waves from the 2015 event [ M w (moment magnitude) = 5.7] were recorded by an offshore seafloor array of 10 pressure gauges, ~100 km away from the epicenter. We made an array analysis of dispersive tsunamis to locate the tsunami source within the submarine Smith Caldera. The tsunami simulation from a large caldera-floor uplift of ~1.5 m with a small peripheral depression yielded waveforms remarkably similar to the observations. The estimated central uplift, 1.5 m, is ~20 times larger than that inferred from the seismologically determined non-double-couple source. Thus, the tsunami observation is not compatible with the published seismic source model taken at face value. However, given the indeterminacy of M zx , M zy , and M {tensile} of a shallow moment tensor source, it may be possible to find a source mechanism with efficient tsunami but inefficient seismic radiation that can satisfactorily explain both the tsunami and seismic observations, but this question remains unresolved.

Research on Collection of Earthquake Disaster Information from the Crowd

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nian, Z.

2017-12-01

In China, the assessment of the earthquake disasters information is mainly based on the inversion of the seismic source mechanism and the pre-calculated population data model, the real information of the earthquake disaster is usually collected through the government departments, the accuracy and the speed need to be improved. And in a massive earthquake like the one in Mexico, the telecommunications infrastructure on ground were damaged , the quake zone was difficult to observe by satellites and aircraft in the bad weather. Only a bit of information was sent out through maritime satellite of other country. Thus, the timely and effective development of disaster relief was seriously affected. Now Chinese communication satellites have been orbiting, people don't only rely on the ground telecom base station to keep communication with the outside world, to open the web page,to land social networking sites, to release information, to transmit images and videoes. This paper will establish an earthquake information collection system which public can participate. Through popular social platform and other information sources, the public can participate in the collection of earthquake information, and supply quake zone information, including photos, video, etc.,especially those information made by unmanned aerial vehicle (uav) after earthqake, the public can use the computer, potable terminals, or mobile text message to participate in the earthquake information collection. In the system, the information will be divided into earthquake zone basic information, earthquake disaster reduction information, earthquake site information, post-disaster reconstruction information etc. and they will been processed and put into database. The quality of data is analyzed by multi-source information, and is controlled by local public opinion on them to supplement the data collected by government departments timely and implement the calibration of simulation results ,which will better guide disaster relief scheduling and post-disaster reconstruction. In the future ,we will work hard to raise public awareness, to train their consciousness of public participation and to improve the quality of public supply data.

Long-Period Ground Motion due to Near-Shear Earthquake Ruptures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koketsu, K.; Yokota, Y.; Hikima, K.

2010-12-01

Long-period ground motion has become an increasingly important consideration because of the recent rapid increase in the number of large-scale structures, such as high-rise buildings and large oil storage tanks. Large subduction-zone earthquakes and moderate to large crustal earthquakes can generate far-source long-period ground motions in distant sedimentary basins with the help of path effects. Near-fault long-period ground motions are generated, for the most part, by the source effects of forward rupture directivity (Koketsu and Miyake, 2008). This rupture directivity effect is the maximum in the direction of fault rupture when a rupture velocity is nearly equal to shear wave velocity around a source fault (Dunham and Archuleta, 2005). The near-shear rupture was found to occur during the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake at the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau (Koketsu et al., 2010). The variance of waveform residuals in a joint inversion of teleseismic and strong motion data was the minimum when we adopted a rupture velocity of 2.8 km/s, which is close to the shear wave velocity of 2.6 km/s around the hypocenter. We also found near-shear rupture during the 2010 Mw 6.9 Yushu earthquake (Yokota et al., 2010). The optimum rupture velocity for an inversion of teleseismic data is 3.5 km/s, which is almost equal to the shear wave velocity around the hypocenter. Since, in addition, supershear rupture was found during the 2001 Mw 7.8 Central Kunlun earthquake (Bouchon and Vallee, 2003), such fast earthquake rupture can be a characteristic of the eastern Tibetan plateau. Huge damage in Yingxiu and Beichuan from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and damage heavier than expected in the county seat of Yushu from the medium-sized Yushu earthquake can be attributed to the maximum rupture directivity effect in the rupture direction due to near-shear earthquake ruptures.

The Earthquake‐Source Inversion Validation (SIV) Project

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mai, P. Martin; Schorlemmer, Danijel; Page, Morgan T.; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Asano, Kimiyuki; Causse, Mathieu; Custodio, Susana; Fan, Wenyuan; Festa, Gaetano; Galis, Martin; Gallovic, Frantisek; Imperatori, Walter; Käser, Martin; Malytskyy, Dmytro; Okuwaki, Ryo; Pollitz, Fred; Passone, Luca; Razafindrakoto, Hoby N. T.; Sekiguchi, Haruko; Song, Seok Goo; Somala, Surendra N.; Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.; Twardzik, Cedric; van Driel, Martin; Vyas, Jagdish C.; Wang, Rongjiang; Yagi, Yuji; Zielke, Olaf

2016-01-01

Finite‐fault earthquake source inversions infer the (time‐dependent) displacement on the rupture surface from geophysical data. The resulting earthquake source models document the complexity of the rupture process. However, multiple source models for the same earthquake, obtained by different research teams, often exhibit remarkable dissimilarities. To address the uncertainties in earthquake‐source inversion methods and to understand strengths and weaknesses of the various approaches used, the Source Inversion Validation (SIV) project conducts a set of forward‐modeling exercises and inversion benchmarks. In this article, we describe the SIV strategy, the initial benchmarks, and current SIV results. Furthermore, we apply statistical tools for quantitative waveform comparison and for investigating source‐model (dis)similarities that enable us to rank the solutions, and to identify particularly promising source inversion approaches. All SIV exercises (with related data and descriptions) and statistical comparison tools are available via an online collaboration platform, and we encourage source modelers to use the SIV benchmarks for developing and testing new methods. We envision that the SIV efforts will lead to new developments for tackling the earthquake‐source imaging problem.

Paleoseismological multi-theme study of seismically induced geological effects at Vendicari (south-eastern Sicily).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirrotta, Claudia; Serafina Barbano, Maria

2010-05-01

Strong earthquakes can produce direct and permanent geological effects on the earth surface. Beyond surface faulting, other effects, such as landslides, liquefactions and ground deformations (seismites), take place in the epicentral area as a consequence of the seismic wave propagation in the sediments. Since the last three decades only, these features have been considered indicators of seismicity and their analysis (paleoseismological off-fault study) has been used as an useful tool for obtaining crucial information on the causative earthquake parameters. Such analyses are especially useful in areas where earthquakes occurred before the seismic instrument development or without clear evidence of surface faulting. Since paleoseismology is a youth discipline, the integration of innovative and multidisciplinary techniques and the updating of the case studies on seismites is of fundamental importance. During historical time south-eastern Sicily has been hit by strong earthquakes (M up to 7), such as the 1169, 1542 and 1693 events. Given the lack of surface faulting evidence, the real source location of these earthquakes is a still open question and represents the main gap of the Sicilian seismogenic framework, therefore paleosismological off-fault study can contribute to identify seismogenic sources. Along the NNE-SSW trending rocky coast of Vendicari, we detected a singular association of deformational structures affecting terrains up to Quaternary age. These structures are both soft sediment deformations (autoclastic breccias, diapyr-like injections, dikes and thyxotropic wedges), probably linked to liquefaction mechanisms, and fragile deformations, consisting of opened fractures generally filled by sediment (Neptunian dykes). With the aim to define the deformation mechanisms that affected the deposits at Vendicari, we studied in detail the local stratigraphic sequence and the deformational structures, performing a mesostructural study of the fractures and the analysis of the microscopic characteristic of the filling materials, as well. The systematic and paleostress analyses of the fractures highlighted a high variability in the architectural style and a high dispersion of the plane direction. This is probably linked to more than one deformative mechanism concurring in their development and masking the stress field. A coseismic brittle deformation, linked to the shaking and to the seismic wave propagation, and a lateral spreading and settlement mechanism with fissuring parallel to the coastline (driven by gravity under a moderate topographic gradients), are proposed as probable causes of the fracture development together with the tectonic stress field. However, the analysis of the fractures, filtered and cleaned up from the contribute of the disturb mechanisms, shows a stress field characterized by a probable NW-SE-trending σ1,which iscompatible with the active regional stress. The occurrence of violent coseismic deformation should be also testified by the development of the liquefaction-driven soft sediment deformations, observed in the area, that reveals the application of an horizontal shear stress and of a sudden high hydraulic pressure. The overall analysis of seismites at Vendicari highlights the occurrence of at least three triggering events, occurred after the Pleistocene age. They could be tentatively associate with the historical 1169, 1542 and 1693 earthquakes (I0 ≥X) or with similar or strongest paleoevents, considering the minimum epicentral distances and the minimum intensity at a site (Is ≥ IX) for which an earthquake is capable to induce these association of seismites. The paleoseismological study at Vendicari allowed us to upgrade the paleoseimological off-fault techniques and to increase the study cases in Sicily. Moreover, this study provides, if integrated with similar studies at regional scale, new and useful information on ancient earthquakes in a high-seismicity area like eastern Sicily, for a better characterization of the seismogenic sources.

Possible Dual Earthquake-Landslide Source of the 13 November 2016 Kaikoura, New Zealand Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Satake, Kenji

2017-10-01

A complicated earthquake ( M w 7.8) in terms of rupture mechanism occurred in the NE coast of South Island, New Zealand, on 13 November 2016 (UTC) in a complex tectonic setting comprising a transition strike-slip zone between two subduction zones. The earthquake generated a moderate tsunami with zero-to-crest amplitude of 257 cm at the near-field tide gauge station of Kaikoura. Spectral analysis of the tsunami observations showed dual peaks at 3.6-5.7 and 5.7-56 min, which we attribute to the potential landslide and earthquake sources of the tsunami, respectively. Tsunami simulations showed that a source model with slip on an offshore plate-interface fault reproduces the near-field tsunami observation in terms of amplitude, but fails in terms of tsunami period. On the other hand, a source model without offshore slip fails to reproduce the first peak, but the later phases are reproduced well in terms of both amplitude and period. It can be inferred that an offshore source is necessary to be involved, but it needs to be smaller in size than the plate interface slip, which most likely points to a confined submarine landslide source, consistent with the dual-peak tsunami spectrum. We estimated the dimension of the potential submarine landslide at 8-10 km.

3-D Simulation of Earthquakes on the Cascadia Megathrust: Key Parameters and Constraints from Offshore Structure and Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wirth, E. A.; Frankel, A. D.; Vidale, J. E.; Stone, I.; Nasser, M.; Stephenson, W. J.

2017-12-01

The Cascadia subduction zone has a long history of M8 to M9 earthquakes, inferred from coastal subsidence, tsunami records, and submarine landslides. These megathrust earthquakes occur mostly offshore, and an improved characterization of the megathrust is critical for accurate seismic hazard assessment in the Pacific Northwest. We run numerical simulations of 50 magnitude 9 earthquake rupture scenarios on the Cascadia megathrust, using a 3-D velocity model based on geologic constraints and regional seismicity, as well as active and passive source seismic studies. We identify key parameters that control the intensity of ground shaking and resulting seismic hazard. Variations in the down-dip limit of rupture (e.g., extending rupture to the top of the non-volcanic tremor zone, compared to a completely offshore rupture) result in a 2-3x difference in peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the inland city of Seattle, Washington. Comparisons of our simulations to paleoseismic data suggest that rupture extending to the 1 cm/yr locking contour (i.e., mostly offshore) provides the best fit to estimates of coastal subsidence during previous Cascadia earthquakes, but further constraints on the down-dip limit from microseismicity, offshore geodetics, and paleoseismic evidence are needed. Similarly, our simulations demonstrate that coastal communities experience a four-fold increase in PGA depending upon their proximity to strong-motion-generating areas (i.e., high strength asperities) on the deeper portions of the megathrust. An improved understanding of the structure and rheology of the plate interface and accretionary wedge, and better detection of offshore seismicity, may allow us to forecast locations of these asperities during a future Cascadia earthquake. In addition to these parameters, the seismic velocity and attenuation structure offshore also strongly affects the resulting ground shaking. This work outlines the range of plausible ground motions from an M9 Cascadia earthquake, and highlights the importance of offshore studies for constraining critical parameters and seismic hazard in the Pacific Northwest.

Imaging the Fine-Scale Structure of the San Andreas Fault in the Northern Gabilan Range with Explosion and Earthquake Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xin, H.; Thurber, C. H.; Zhang, H.; Wang, F.

2014-12-01

A number of geophysical studies have been carried out along the San Andreas Fault (SAF) in the Northern Gabilan Range (NGR) with the purpose of characterizing in detail the fault zone structure. Previous seismic research has revealed the complex structure of the crustal volume in the NGR region in two-dimensions (Thurber et al., 1996, 1997), and there has been some work on the three-dimensional (3D) structure at a coarser scale (Lin and Roecker, 1997). In our study we use earthquake body-wave arrival times and differential times (P and S) and explosion arrival times (only P) to image the 3D P- and S-wave velocity structure of the upper crust along the SAF in the NGR using double-difference (DD) tomography. The earthquake and explosion data types have complementary strengths - the earthquake data have good resolution at depth and resolve both Vp and Vs structure, although only where there are sufficient seismic rays between hypocenter and stations, whereas the explosions contribute very good near-surface resolution but for P waves only. The original dataset analyzed by Thurber et al. (1996, 1997) included data from 77 local earthquakes and 8 explosions. We enlarge the dataset with 114 more earthquakes that occurred in the study area, obtain improved S-wave picks using an automated picker, and include absolute and cross-correlation differential times. The inversion code we use is the algorithm tomoDD (Zhang and Thurber, 2003). We assess how the P and S velocity models and earthquake locations vary as we alter the inversion parameters and the inversion grid. The new inversion results show clearly the fine-scale structure of the SAF at depth in 3D, sharpening the image of the velocity contrast from the southwest side to the northeast side.

Coastal evidence for Holocene subduction-zone earthquakes and tsunamis in central Chile

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dure, Tina; Cisternas, Marco; Horton, Benjamin; Ely, Lisa; Nelson, Alan R.; Wesson, Robert L.; Pilarczyk, Jessica

2015-01-01

The ∼500-year historical record of seismicity along the central Chile coast (30–34°S) is characterized by a series of ∼M 8.0–8.5 earthquakes followed by low tsunamis (<4 m) occurring on the megathrust about every 80 years. One exception is the AD 1730 great earthquake (M 9.0–9.5) and high tsunami (>10 m), but the frequency of such large events is unknown. We extend the seismic history of central Chile through a study of a lowland stratigraphic sequence along the metropolitan coast north of Valparaíso (33°S). At this site, higher relative sea level during the mid Holocene created a tidal marsh and the accommodation space necessary for sediment that preserves earthquake and tsunami evidence. Within this 2600-yr-long sequence, we traced six laterally continuous sand beds probably deposited by high tsunamis. Plant remains that underlie the sand beds were radiocarbon dated to 6200, 5600, 5000, 4400, 3800, and 3700 cal yr BP. Sediment properties and diatom assemblages of the sand beds—for example, anomalous marine planktonic diatoms and upward fining of silt-sized diatom valves—point to a marine sediment source and high-energy deposition. Grain-size analysis shows a strong similarity between inferred tsunami deposits and modern coastal sediment. Upward fining sequences characteristic of suspension deposition are present in five of the six sand beds. Despite the lack of significant lithologic changes between the sedimentary units under- and overlying tsunami deposits, we infer that the increase in freshwater siliceous microfossils in overlying units records coseismic uplift concurrent with the deposition of five of the sand beds. During our mid-Holocene window of evidence preservation, the mean recurrence interval of earthquakes and tsunamis is ∼500 years. Our findings imply that the frequency of historical earthquakes in central Chile is not representative of the greatest earthquakes and tsunamis that the central Chilean subduction zone has produced.

Nationwide tsunami hazard assessment project in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, K.; Fujiwara, H.; Nakamura, H.; Osada, M.; Ohsumi, T.; Morikawa, N.; Kawai, S.; Aoi, S.; Yamamoto, N.; Matsuyama, H.; Toyama, N.; Kito, T.; Murashima, Y.; Murata, Y.; Inoue, T.; Saito, R.; Akiyama, S.; Korenaga, M.; Abe, Y.; Hashimoto, N.

2014-12-01

In 2012, we began a project of nationwide Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) in Japan to support various measures (Fujiwara et al., 2013, JpGU; Hirata et al., 2014, AOGS). The most important strategy in the nationwide PTHA is predominance of aleatory uncertainty in the assessment but use of epistemic uncertainty is limited to the minimum, because the number of all possible combinations among epistemic uncertainties diverges quickly when the number of epistemic uncertainties in the assessment increases ; we consider only a type of earthquake occurrence probability distribution as epistemic uncertainty. We briefly show outlines of the nationwide PTHA as follows; (i) we consider all possible earthquakes in the future, including those that the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) of Japanese Government, already assessed. (ii) We construct a set of simplified earthquake fault models, called "Characterized Earthquake Fault Models (CEFMs)", for all of the earthquakes by following prescribed rules (Toyama et al., 2014, JpGU; Korenaga et al., 2014, JpGU). (iii) For all of initial water surface distributions caused by a number of the CEFMs, we calculate tsunamis by solving a nonlinear long wave equation, using FDM, including runup calculation, over a nesting grid system with a minimum grid size of 50 meters. (iv) Finally, we integrate information about the tsunamis calculated from the numerous CEFMs to get nationwide tsunami hazard assessments. One of the most popular representations of the integrated information is a tsunami hazard curve for coastal tsunami heights, incorporating uncertainties inherent in tsunami simulation and earthquake fault slip heterogeneity (Abe et al., 2014, JpGU). We will show a　PTHA along the eastern coast of Honshu, Japan, based on approximately 1,800 tsunami sources located within the subduction zone along the Japan Trench, as a prototype of the nationwide PTHA. This study is supported by part of the research project on research on evaluation of hazard and risk of natural disasters, under the direction of the HERP of Japanese Government.

The "Tsunami Earthquake" of 13 April 1923 in Northern Kamchatka: Seismological and Hydrodynamic Investigations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salaree, Amir; Okal, Emile A.

2018-04-01

We present a seismological and hydrodynamic investigation of the earthquake of 13 April 1923 at Ust'-Kamchatsk, Northern Kamchatka, which generated a more powerful and damaging tsunami than the larger event of 03 February 1923, thus qualifying as a so-called "tsunami earthquake". On the basis of modern relocations, we suggest that it took place outside the fault area of the mainshock, across the oblique Pacific-North America plate boundary, a model confirmed by a limited dataset of mantle waves, which also confirms the slow nature of the source, characteristic of tsunami earthquakes. However, numerical simulations for a number of legitimate seismic models fail to reproduce the sharply peaked distribution of tsunami wave amplitudes reported in the literature. By contrast, we can reproduce the distribution of reported wave amplitudes using an underwater landslide as a source of the tsunami, itself triggered by the earthquake inside the Kamchatskiy Bight.

GPS detection of ionospheric perturbations following the January 17, 1994, northridge earthquake

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Calais, Eric; Minster, J. Bernard

1995-01-01

Sources such as atmospheric or buried explosions and shallow earthquakes producing strong vertical ground displacements produce pressure waves that propagate at infrasonic speeds in the atmosphere. At ionospheric altitudes low frequency acoustic waves are coupled to ionispheric gravity waves and induce variations in the ionoispheric electron density. Global Positioning System (GPS) data recorded in Southern California were used to compute ionospheric electron content time series for several days preceding and following the January 17, 1994, M(sub w) = 6.7 Northridge earthquake. An anomalous signal beginning several minutes after the earthquake with time delays that increase with distance from the epicenter was observed. The signal frequency and phase velocity are consistent with results from numerical models of atmospheric-ionospheric acoustic-gravity waves excited by seismic sources as well as previous electromagnetic sounding results. It is believed that these perturbations are caused by the ionospheric response to the strong ground displacement associated with the Northridge earthquake.

Limitation of the Predominant-Period Estimator for Earthquake Early Warning and the Initial Rupture of Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamada, T.; Ide, S.

2007-12-01

Earthquake early warning is an important and challenging issue for the reduction of the seismic damage, especially for the mitigation of human suffering. One of the most important problems in earthquake early warning systems is how immediately we can estimate the final size of an earthquake after we observe the ground motion. It is relevant to the problem whether the initial rupture of an earthquake has some information associated with its final size. Nakamura (1988) developed the Urgent Earthquake Detection and Alarm System (UrEDAS). It calculates the predominant period of the P wave (τp) and estimates the magnitude of an earthquake immediately after the P wave arrival from the value of τpmax, or the maximum value of τp. The similar approach has been adapted by other earthquake alarm systems (e.g., Allen and Kanamori (2003)). To investigate the characteristic of the parameter τp and the effect of the length of the time window (TW) in the τpmax calculation, we analyze the high-frequency recordings of earthquakes at very close distances in the Mponeng mine in South Africa. We find that values of τpmax have upper and lower limits. For larger earthquakes whose source durations are longer than TW, the values of τpmax have an upper limit which depends on TW. On the other hand, the values for smaller earthquakes have a lower limit which is proportional to the sampling interval. For intermediate earthquakes, the values of τpmax are close to their typical source durations. These two limits and the slope for intermediate earthquakes yield an artificial final size dependence of τpmax in a wide size range. The parameter τpmax is useful for detecting large earthquakes and broadcasting earthquake early warnings. However, its dependence on the final size of earthquakes does not suggest that the earthquake rupture is deterministic. This is because τpmax does not always have a direct relation to the physical quantities of an earthquake.

Tsunami Hazard Assessment of the Northern Oregon Coast: A Multi-Deterministic Approach Tested at Cannon Beach, Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Priest, G. R.; Goldfinger, C.; Wang, K.; Witter, R. C.; Zhang, Y.; Baptista, A.

2008-12-01

To update the tsunami hazard assessment method for Oregon, we (1) evaluate geologically reasonable variability of the earthquake rupture process on the Cascadia megathrust, (2) compare those scenarios to geological and geophysical evidence for plate locking, (3) specify 25 deterministic earthquake sources, and (4) use the resulting vertical coseismic deformations as initial conditions for simulation of Cascadia tsunami inundation at Cannon Beach, Oregon. Because of the Cannon Beach focus, the north-south extent of source scenarios is limited to Neah Bay, Washington to Florence, Oregon. We use the marine paleoseismic record to establish recurrence bins from the 10,000 year event record and select representative coseismic slips from these data. Assumed slips on the megathrust are 8.4 m (290 yrs of convergence), 15.2 m (525 years of convergence), 21.6 m (748 years of convergence), and 37.5 m (1298 years of convergence) which, if the sources were extended to the entire Cascadia margin, give Mw varying from approximately 8.3 to 9.3. Additional parameters explored by these scenarios characterize ruptures with a buried megathrust versus splay faulting, local versus regional slip patches, and seaward skewed versus symmetrical slip distribution. By assigning variable weights to the 25 source scenarios using a logic tree approach, we derived percentile inundation lines that express the confidence level (percentage) that a Cascadia tsunami will NOT exceed the line. Lines of 50, 70, 90, and 99 percent confidence correspond to maximum runup of 8.9, 10.5, 13.2, and 28.4 m (NAVD88). The tsunami source with highest logic tree weight (preferred scenario) involved rupture of a splay fault with 15.2 m slip that produced tsunami inundation near the 70 percent confidence line. Minimum inundation consistent with the inland extent of three Cascadia tsunami sand layers deposited east of Cannon Beach within the last 1000 years suggests a minimum of 15.2 m slip on buried megathrust ruptures. The largest tsunami run-up at the 99 percent isoline was from 37.5 m slip partitioned to a splay fault. This type of extreme event is considered to be very rare, perhaps once in 10,000 years based on offshore paleoseismic evidence, but it can produce waves rivaling the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Cascadia coseismic deformation most similar to the Indian Ocean earthquake produced generally smaller tsunamis than at the Indian Ocean due mostly to the 1 km shallower water depth on the Cascadia margin. Inundation from distant tsunami sources was assessed by simulation of only two Mw 9.2 earthquakes in the Gulf of Alaska, a hypothetical worst-case developed by the Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group (2006) and a historical worst case, the 1964 Prince William Sound Earthquake; maximum runups were, respectively, 12.4 m and 7.5 m.

Near real-time finite fault source inversion for moderate-large earthquakes in Taiwan using teleseismic P waveform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, T. P.; Lee, S. J.; Gung, Y.

2017-12-01

Taiwan is located at one of the most active tectonic regions in the world. Rapid estimation of the spatial slip distribution of moderate-large earthquake (Mw6.0) is important for emergency response. It is necessary to have a real-time system to provide the report immediately after earthquake happen. The earthquake activities in the vicinity of Taiwan can be monitored by Real-Time Moment Tensor Monitoring System (RMT) which provides the rapid focal mechanism and source parameters. In this study, we follow up the RMT system to develop a near real-time finite fault source inversion system for the moderate-large earthquakes occurred in Taiwan. The system will be triggered by the RMT System when an Mw6.0 is detected. According to RMT report, our system automatically determines the fault dimension, record length, and rise time. We adopted one segment fault plane with variable rake angle. The generalized ray theory was applied to calculate the Green's function for each subfault. The primary objective of the system is to provide the first order image of coseismic slip pattern and identify the centroid location on the fault plane. The performance of this system had been demonstrated by 23 big earthquakes occurred in Taiwan successfully. The results show excellent data fits and consistent with the solutions from other studies. The preliminary spatial slip distribution will be provided within 25 minutes after an earthquake occurred.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for Ecuador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariniere, J.; Beauval, C.; Yepes, H. A.; Laurence, A.; Nocquet, J. M.; Alvarado, A. P.; Baize, S.; Aguilar, J.; Singaucho, J. C.; Jomard, H.

2017-12-01

A probabilistic seismic hazard study is led for Ecuador, a country facing a high seismic hazard, both from megathrust subduction earthquakes and shallow crustal moderate to large earthquakes. Building on the knowledge produced in the last years in historical seismicity, earthquake catalogs, active tectonics, geodynamics, and geodesy, several alternative earthquake recurrence models are developed. An area source model is first proposed, based on the seismogenic crustal and inslab sources defined in Yepes et al. (2016). A slightly different segmentation is proposed for the subduction interface, with respect to Yepes et al. (2016). Three earthquake catalogs are used to account for the numerous uncertainties in the modeling of frequency-magnitude distributions. The hazard maps obtained highlight several source zones enclosing fault systems that exhibit low seismic activity, not representative of the geological and/or geodetical slip rates. Consequently, a fault model is derived, including faults with an earthquake recurrence model inferred from geological and/or geodetical slip rate estimates. The geodetical slip rates on the set of simplified faults are estimated from a GPS horizontal velocity field (Nocquet et al. 2014). Assumptions on the aseismic component of the deformation are required. Combining these alternative earthquake models in a logic tree, and using a set of selected ground-motion prediction equations adapted to Ecuador's different tectonic contexts, a mean hazard map is obtained. Hazard maps corresponding to the percentiles 16 and 84% are also derived, highlighting the zones where uncertainties on the hazard are highest.

Open Source Tools for Seismicity Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powers, P.

2010-12-01

The spatio-temporal analysis of seismicity plays an important role in earthquake forecasting and is integral to research on earthquake interactions and triggering. For instance, the third version of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF), currently under development, will use Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) as a model for earthquake triggering. UCERF will be a "living" model and therefore requires robust, tested, and well-documented ETAS algorithms to ensure transparency and reproducibility. Likewise, as earthquake aftershock sequences unfold, real-time access to high quality hypocenter data makes it possible to monitor the temporal variability of statistical properties such as the parameters of the Omori Law and the Gutenberg Richter b-value. Such statistical properties are valuable as they provide a measure of how much a particular sequence deviates from expected behavior and can be used when assigning probabilities of aftershock occurrence. To address these demands and provide public access to standard methods employed in statistical seismology, we present well-documented, open-source JavaScript and Java software libraries for the on- and off-line analysis of seismicity. The Javascript classes facilitate web-based asynchronous access to earthquake catalog data and provide a framework for in-browser display, analysis, and manipulation of catalog statistics; implementations of this framework will be made available on the USGS Earthquake Hazards website. The Java classes, in addition to providing tools for seismicity analysis, provide tools for modeling seismicity and generating synthetic catalogs. These tools are extensible and will be released as part of the open-source OpenSHA Commons library.

Hovsgol earthquake 5 December 2014, M W = 4.9: seismic and acoustic effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobrynina, Anna A.; Sankov, Vladimir A.; Tcydypova, Larisa R.; German, Victor I.; Chechelnitsky, Vladimir V.; Ulzibat, Munkhuu

2018-03-01

A moderate shallow earthquake occurred on 5 December 2014 ( M W = 4.9) in the north of Lake Hovsgol (northern Mongolia). The infrasonic signal with duration 140 s was recorded for this earthquake by the "Tory" infrasound array (Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science, Russia). Source parameters of the earthquake (seismic moment, geometrical sizes, displacement amplitudes in the focus) were determined using spectral analysis of direct body P and S waves. The spectral analysis of seismograms and amplitude variations of the surface waves allows to determine the effect of the propagation of the rupture in the earthquake focus, the azimuth of the rupture propagation direction and the velocity of displacement in the earthquake focus. The results of modelling of the surface displacements caused by the Hovsgol earthquake and high effective velocity of propagation of infrasound signal ( 625 m/s) indicate that its occurrence is not caused by the downward movement of the Earth's surface in the epicentral region but by the effect of the secondary source. The position of the secondary source of infrasound signal is defined on the northern slopes of the Khamar-Daban ridge according to the data on the azimuth and time of arrival of acoustic wave at the Tory station. The interaction of surface waves with the regional topography is proposed as the most probable mechanism of formation of the infrasound signal.

Source parameters of the 2013, Ms 7.0, Lushan earthquake and the characteristics of the near-fault strong ground motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Fengfan; Meng, Lingyuan

2016-04-01

The April 20, 2013 Ms 7.0, earthquake in Lushan city, Sichuan province of China occurred as the result of east-west oriented reverse-type motion on a north-south striking fault. The source location suggests the event occurred on the Southern part of Longmenshan fault at a depth of 13km. The maximum intensity is up to VIII to IX at Boxing and Lushan city, which are located in the meizoseismal area. In this study, we analyzed the dynamic source process with the source mechanism and empirical relationships, estimated the strong ground motion in the near-fault field based on the Brune's circle model. A dynamical composite source model (DCSM) has been developed to simulate the near-fault strong ground motion with associated fault rupture properties at Boxing and Lushan city, respectively. The results indicate that the frictional undershoot behavior in the dynamic source process of Lushan earthquake, which is actually different from the overshoot activity of the Wenchuan earthquake. Moreover, we discussed the characteristics of the strong ground motion in the near-fault field, that the broadband synthetic seismogram ground motion predictions for Boxing and Lushan city produced larger peak values, shorter durations and higher frequency contents. It indicates that the factors in near-fault strong ground motion was under the influence of higher effect stress drop and asperity slip distributions on the fault plane. This work is financially supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41404045) and by Science for Earthquake Resilience of CEA (XH14055Y).

A Viscoelastic earthquake simulator with application to the San Francisco Bay region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollitz, Fred F.

2009-01-01

Earthquake simulation on synthetic fault networks carries great potential for characterizing the statistical patterns of earthquake occurrence. I present an earthquake simulator based on elastic dislocation theory. It accounts for the effects of interseismic tectonic loading, static stress steps at the time of earthquakes, and postearthquake stress readjustment through viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and mantle. Earthquake rupture initiation and termination are determined with a Coulomb failure stress criterion and the static cascade model. The simulator is applied to interacting multifault systems: one, a synthetic two-fault network, and the other, a fault network representative of the San Francisco Bay region. The faults are discretized both along strike and along dip and can accommodate both strike slip and dip slip. Stress and seismicity functions are evaluated over 30,000 yr trial time periods, resulting in a detailed statistical characterization of the fault systems. Seismicity functions such as the coefficient of variation and a- and b-values exhibit systematic patterns with respect to simple model parameters. This suggests that reliable estimation of the controlling parameters of an earthquake simulator is a prerequisite to the interpretation of its output in terms of seismic hazard.

Magnitude and Rupture Area Scaling Relationships of Seismicity at The Northwest Geysers EGS Demonstration Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dreger, D. S.; Boyd, O. S.; Taira, T.; Gritto, R.

2017-12-01

Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) resource development requires knowledge of subsurface physical parameters to quantify the evolution of fracture networks. Spatio-temporal source properties, including source dimension, rupture area, slip, rupture speed, and slip velocity of induced seismicity are of interest at The Geysers geothermal field, northern California to map the coseismic facture density of the EGS swarm. In this investigation we extend our previous finite-source analysis of selected M>4 earthquakes to examine source properties of smaller magnitude seismicity located in the Northwest Geysers Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) demonstration project. Moment rate time histories of the source are found using empirical Green's function (eGf) deconvolution using the method of Mori (1993) as implemented by Dreger et al. (2007). The moment rate functions (MRFs) from data recorded using the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) short-period geophone network are inverted for finite-source parameters including the spatial distribution of fault slip, rupture velocity, and the orientation of the causative fault plane. The results show complexity in the MRF for the studied earthquakes. Thus far the estimated rupture area and the magnitude-area trend of the smaller magnitude Geysers seismicity is found to agree with the empirical relationships of Wells and Coppersmith (1994) and Leonard (2010), which were developed for much larger M>5.5 earthquakes worldwide indicating self-similar behavior extending to M2 earthquakes. We will present finite-source inversion results of the micro-earthquakes, attempting to extend the analysis to sub Mw, and demonstrate their magnitude-area scaling. The extension of the scaling laws will then enable the mapping of coseismic fracture density of the EGS swarm in the Northwest Geysers based on catalog moment magnitude estimates.

New insights on active fault geometries in the Mentawai region of Sumatra, Indonesia, from broadband waveform modeling of earthquake source parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

WANG, X.; Wei, S.; Bradley, K. E.

2017-12-01

Global earthquake catalogs provide important first-order constraints on the geometries of active faults. However, the accuracies of both locations and focal mechanisms in these catalogs are typically insufficient to resolve detailed fault geometries. This issue is particularly critical in subduction zones, where most great earthquakes occur. The Slab 1.0 model (Hayes et al. 2012), which was derived from global earthquake catalogs, has smooth fault geometries, and cannot adequately address local structural complexities that are critical for understanding earthquake rupture patterns, coseismic slip distributions, and geodetically monitored interseismic coupling. In this study, we conduct careful relocation and waveform modeling of earthquake source parameters to reveal fault geometries in greater detail. We take advantage of global data and conduct broadband waveform modeling for medium size earthquakes (M>4.5) to refine their source parameters, which include locations and fault plane solutions. The refined source parameters can greatly improve the imaging of fault geometry (e.g., Wang et al., 2017). We apply these approaches to earthquakes recorded since 1990 in the Mentawai region offshore of central Sumatra. Our results indicate that the uncertainty of the horizontal location, depth and dip angle estimation are as small as 5 km, 2 km and 5 degrees, respectively. The refined catalog shows that the 2005 and 2009 "back-thrust" sequences in Mentawai region actually occurred on a steeply landward-dipping fault, contradicting previous studies that inferred a seaward-dipping backthrust. We interpret these earthquakes as `unsticking' of the Sumatran accretionary wedge along a backstop fault that separates accreted material of the wedge from the strong Sunda lithosphere, or reactivation of an old normal fault buried beneath the forearc basin. We also find that the seismicity on the Sunda megathrust deviates in location from Slab 1.0 by up to 7 km, with along strike variation. The refined megathrust geometry will improve our understanding of the tectonic setting in this region, and place further constraints on rupture processes of the hazardous megathrust.

The Effects of Structure and Source Complexity on Waveforms: Crustal Structure of Tibet and the Recovery of Complex Seismic Sources

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-09-07

features such as the northern Anatolian fault are observed. After considerable convergence and shortening within Asia, lithospheric delamination perhaps...history of an earthquake as viewed by geologists and seismologists. There are many examples of earthquakes which show an apparent poor correlation of

Initial Results from the New Stress Map of Texas Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lund Snee, J. E.; Zoback, M. D.

2015-12-01

Modern techniques for characterizing tectonic stress orientation and relative magnitude have been successfully used for more than 35 years. Nevertheless, large areas of North America lack high spatial resolution maps of stress orientation, magnitude, and faulting regime. In Texas, for example, <30 A-C-quality stress orientations are currently registered on the World Stress Map and only 7 of these points also describe the stress regime. Stress data are foundational elements of attempts to characterize tectonic driving forces, understand hazards associated with induced seismicity, and optimize production of oil, gas, and geothermal resources. This year, we launched the Texas Stress Map project to characterize tectonic stress patterns at higher spatial resolution across Texas and nearby areas. Following a successful effort just completed in Oklahoma, we will evaluate borehole breakouts, drilling-induced tensile fractures, shear wave anisotropy, and earthquake data. The principal data source will be FMI (fullbore formation microimager), UBI (ultrasonic borehole imager), cross-dipole sonic, density, and caliper logs provided by private industry. Earthquake moment tensor solutions from the U.S. Geological Survey, Saint Louis University and other sources will also be used. Our initial focus is on the Permian Basin and Barnett Shale petroleum plays due to the availability of data, but we will expand our analysis across the state as the project progresses. In addition, we hope to eventually apply the higher spatial resolution data coverage to understanding tectonic and geodynamic characteristics of the southwestern United States and northeastern Mexico. Here we present early results from our work to constrain stress orientations and faulting regime in and near Texas, and we also provide a roadmap for the ongoing research.

Dynamic Source Inversion of a M6.5 Intraslab Earthquake in Mexico: Application of a New Parallel Genetic Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Díaz-Mojica, J. J.; Cruz-Atienza, V. M.; Madariaga, R.; Singh, S. K.; Iglesias, A.

2013-05-01

We introduce a novel approach for imaging the earthquakes dynamics from ground motion records based on a parallel genetic algorithm (GA). The method follows the elliptical dynamic-rupture-patch approach introduced by Di Carli et al. (2010) and has been carefully verified through different numerical tests (Díaz-Mojica et al., 2012). Apart from the five model parameters defining the patch geometry, our dynamic source description has four more parameters: the stress drop inside the nucleation and the elliptical patches; and two friction parameters, the slip weakening distance and the change of the friction coefficient. These parameters are constant within the rupture surface. The forward dynamic source problem, involved in the GA inverse method, uses a highly accurate computational solver for the problem, namely the staggered-grid split-node. The synthetic inversion presented here shows that the source model parameterization is suitable for the GA, and that short-scale source dynamic features are well resolved in spite of low-pass filtering of the data for periods comparable to the source duration. Since there is always uncertainty in the propagation medium as well as in the source location and the focal mechanisms, we have introduced a statistical approach to generate a set of solution models so that the envelope of the corresponding synthetic waveforms explains as much as possible the observed data. We applied the method to the 2012 Mw6.5 intraslab Zumpango, Mexico earthquake and determined several fundamental source parameters that are in accordance with different and completely independent estimates for Mexican and worldwide earthquakes. Our weighted-average final model satisfactorily explains eastward rupture directivity observed in the recorded data. Some parameters found for the Zumpango earthquake are: Δτ = 30.2+/-6.2 MPa, Er = 0.68+/-0.36x10^15 J, G = 1.74+/-0.44x10^15 J, η = 0.27+/-0.11, Vr/Vs = 0.52+/-0.09 and Mw = 6.64+/-0.07; for the stress drop, radiated energy, fracture energy, radiation efficiency, rupture velocity and moment magnitude, respectively. Mw6.5 intraslab Zumpango earthquake location, stations location and tectonic setting in central Mexico

A trial of reliable estimation of non-double-couple component of microearthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imanishi, K.; Uchide, T.

2017-12-01

Although most tectonic earthquakes are caused by shear failure, it has been reported that injection-induced seismicity and earthquakes occurring in volcanoes and geothermal areas contain non double couple (non-DC) components (e.g, Dreger et al., 2000). Also in the tectonic earthquakes, small non-DC components are beginning to be detected (e.g, Ross et al., 2015). However, it is generally limited to relatively large earthquakes that the non-DC component can be estimated with sufficient accuracy. In order to gain further understanding of fluid-driven earthquakes and fault zone properties, it is important to estimate full moment tensor of many microearthquakes with high precision. In the last AGU meeting, we proposed a method that iteratively applies the relative moment tensor inversion (RMTI) (Dahm, 1996) to source clusters improving each moment tensor as well as their relative accuracy. This new method overcomes the problem of RMTI that errors in the mechanism of reference events lead to biased solutions for other events, while taking advantage of RMTI that the source mechanisms can be determined without a computation of Green's function. The procedure is briefly summarized as follows: (1) Sample co-located multiple earthquakes with focal mechanisms, as initial solutions, determined by an ordinary method. (2) Apply the RMTI to estimate the source mechanism of each event relative to those of the other events. (3) Repeat the step 2 for the modified source mechanisms until the reduction of total residual converges. In order to confirm whether the method can resolve non-DC components, we conducted numerical tests on synthetic data. Amplitudes were computed assuming non-DC sources, amplifying by factor between 0.2 and 4 as site effects, and adding 10% random noise. As initial solutions in the step 1, we gave DC sources with arbitrary strike, dip and rake angle. In a test with eight sources at 12 stations, for example, all solutions were successively improved by iteration. Non-DC components were successfully resolved in spite of the fact that we gave DC sources as initial solutions. The application of the method to microearthquakes in geothermal area in Japan will be presented.

Fractals and Forecasting in Earthquakes and Finance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Turcotte, D. L.

2011-12-01

It is now recognized that Benoit Mandelbrot's fractals play a critical role in describing a vast range of physical and social phenomena. Here we focus on two systems, earthquakes and finance. Since 1942, earthquakes have been characterized by the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relation, which in more recent times is often written as a moment-frequency power law. A similar relation can be shown to hold for financial markets. Moreover, a recent New York Times article, titled "A Richter Scale for the Markets" [1] summarized the emerging viewpoint that stock market crashes can be described with similar ideas as large and great earthquakes. The idea that stock market crashes can be related in any way to earthquake phenomena has its roots in Mandelbrot's 1963 work on speculative prices in commodities markets such as cotton [2]. He pointed out that Gaussian statistics did not account for the excessive number of booms and busts that characterize such markets. Here we show that both earthquakes and financial crashes can both be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model, involving the presence of a classical limit of stability, or spinodal. These metastable systems are characterized by fractal statistics near the spinodal. For earthquakes, the independent ("order") parameter is the slip deficit along a fault, whereas for the financial markets, it is financial leverage in place. For financial markets, asset values play the role of a free energy. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In the case of financial models, the probabilities are closely related to implied volatility, an important component of Black-Scholes models for stock valuations. [2] B. Mandelbrot, The variation of certain speculative prices, J. Business, 36, 294 (1963)

75 FR 52039 - Biweekly Notice Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses Involving No...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-24

... modifications which would replace the existing source range and intermediate range excore detector systems with... excore detector systems with equivalent neutron monitoring systems. The new instrumentation will perform... the design earthquake, the double design earthquake, the Hosgri earthquake, and the loss-of-coolant...

Implications of ground water chemistry and flow patterns for earthquake studies.

PubMed

Guangcai, Wang; Zuochen, Zhang; Min, Wang; Cravotta, Charles A; Chenglong, Liu

2005-01-01

Ground water can facilitate earthquake development and respond physically and chemically to tectonism. Thus, an understanding of ground water circulation in seismically active regions is important for earthquake prediction. To investigate the roles of ground water in the development and prediction of earthquakes, geological and hydrogeological monitoring was conducted in a seismogenic area in the Yanhuai Basin, China. This study used isotopic and hydrogeochemical methods to characterize ground water samples from six hot springs and two cold springs. The hydrochemical data and associated geological and geophysical data were used to identify possible relations between ground water circulation and seismically active structural features. The data for delta18O, deltaD, tritium, and 14C indicate ground water from hot springs is of meteoric origin with subsurface residence times of 50 to 30,320 years. The reservoir temperature and circulation depths of the hot ground water are 57 degrees C to 160 degrees C and 1600 to 5000 m, respectively, as estimated by quartz and chalcedony geothermometers and the geothermal gradient. Various possible origins of noble gases dissolved in the ground water also were evaluated, indicating mantle and deep crust sources consistent with tectonically active segments. A hard intercalated stratum, where small to moderate earthquakes frequently originate, is present between a deep (10 to 20 km), high-electrical conductivity layer and the zone of active ground water circulation. The ground water anomalies are closely related to the structural peculiarity of each monitoring point. These results could have implications for ground water and seismic studies in other seismogenic areas.

Implications of ground water chemistry and flow patterns for earthquake studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guangcai, W.; Zuochen, Z.; Min, W.; Cravotta, C.A.; Chenglong, L.

2005-01-01

Ground water can facilitate earthquake development and respond physically and chemically to tectonism. Thus, an understanding of ground water circulation in seismically active regions is important for earthquake prediction. To investigate the roles of ground water in the development and prediction of earthquakes, geological and hydrogeological monitoring was conducted in a seismogenic area in the Yanhuai Basin, China. This study used isotopic and hydrogeochemical methods to characterize ground water samples from six hot springs and two cold springs. The hydrochemical data and associated geological and geophysical data were used to identify possible relations between ground water circulation and seismically active structural features. The data for ??18O, ??D, tritium, and 14C indicate ground water from hot springs is of meteoric origin with subsurface residence times of 50 to 30,320 years. The reservoir temperature and circulation depths of the hot ground water are 57??C to 160??C and 1600 to 5000 m, respectively, as estimated by quartz and chalcedony geothermometers and the geothermal gradient. Various possible origins of noble gases dissolved in the ground water also were evaluated, indicating mantle and deep crust sources consistent with tectonically active segments. A hard intercalated stratum, where small to moderate earthquakes frequently originate, is present between a deep (10 to 20 km), high-electrical conductivity layer and the zone of active ground water circulation. The ground water anomalies are closely related to the structural peculiarity of each monitoring point. These results could have implications for ground water and seismic studies in other seismogenic areas. Copyright ?? 2005 National Ground Water Association.

Effect of time dependence on probabilistic seismic-hazard maps and deaggregation for the central Apennines, Italy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Akinci, A.; Galadini, F.; Pantosti, D.; Petersen, M.; Malagnini, L.; Perkins, D.

2009-01-01

We produce probabilistic seismic-hazard assessments for the central Apennines, Italy, using time-dependent models that are characterized using a Brownian passage time recurrence model. Using aperiodicity parameters, ?? of 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7, we examine the sensitivity of the probabilistic ground motion and its deaggregation to these parameters. For the seismic source model we incorporate both smoothed historical seismicity over the area and geological information on faults. We use the maximum magnitude model for the fault sources together with a uniform probability of rupture along the fault (floating fault model) to model fictitious faults to account for earthquakes that cannot be correlated with known geologic structural segmentation.

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Web Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fee, J.; Martinez, E.

2015-12-01

USGS Earthquake web applications provide access to earthquake information from USGS and other Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) contributors. One of the primary goals of these applications is to provide a consistent experience for accessing both near-real time information as soon as it is available and historic information after it is thoroughly reviewed. Millions of people use these applications every month including people who feel an earthquake, emergency responders looking for the latest information about a recent event, and scientists researching historic earthquakes and their effects. Information from multiple catalogs and contributors is combined by the ANSS Comprehensive Catalog into one composite catalog, identifying the most preferred information from any source for each event. A web service and near-real time feeds provide access to all contributed data, and are used by a number of users and software packages. The Latest Earthquakes application displays summaries of many events, either near-real time feeds or custom searches, and the Event Page application shows detailed information for each event. Because all data is accessed through the web service, it can also be downloaded by users. The applications are maintained as open source projects on github, and use mobile-first and responsive-web-design approaches to work well on both mobile devices and desktop computers. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/

Spatial modeling for estimation of earthquakes economic loss in West Java

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Retnowati, Dyah Ayu; Meilano, Irwan; Riqqi, Akhmad; Hanifa, Nuraini Rahma

2017-07-01

Indonesia has a high vulnerability towards earthquakes. The low adaptive capacity could make the earthquake become disaster that should be concerned. That is why risk management should be applied to reduce the impacts, such as estimating the economic loss caused by hazard. The study area of this research is West Java. The main reason of West Java being vulnerable toward earthquake is the existence of active faults. These active faults are Lembang Fault, Cimandiri Fault, Baribis Fault, and also Megathrust subduction zone. This research tries to estimates the value of earthquakes economic loss from some sources in West Java. The economic loss is calculated by using HAZUS method. The components that should be known are hazard (earthquakes), exposure (building), and the vulnerability. Spatial modeling is aimed to build the exposure data and make user get the information easier by showing the distribution map, not only in tabular data. As the result, West Java could have economic loss up to 1,925,122,301,868,140 IDR ± 364,683,058,851,703.00 IDR, which is estimated from six earthquake sources with maximum possibly magnitude. However, the estimation of economic loss value in this research is the worst case earthquakes occurrence which is probably over-estimated.

Earthquake Occurrence in Bangladesh and Surrounding Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Hussaini, T. M.; Al-Noman, M.

2011-12-01

The collision of the northward moving Indian plate with the Eurasian plate is the cause of frequent earthquakes in the region comprising Bangladesh and neighbouring India, Nepal and Myanmar. Historical records indicate that Bangladesh has been affected by five major earthquakes of magnitude greater than 7.0 (Richter scale) during 1869 to 1930. This paper presents some statistical observations of earthquake occurrence in fulfilment of a basic groundwork for seismic hazard assessment of this region. An up to date catalogue covering earthquake information in the region bounded within 17°-30°N and 84°-97°E for the period of historical period to 2010 is derived from various reputed international sources including ISC, IRIS, Indian sources and available publications. Careful scrutiny is done to remove duplicate or uncertain earthquake events. Earthquake magnitudes in the range of 1.8 to 8.1 have been obtained and relationships between different magnitude scales have been studied. Aftershocks are removed from the catalogue using magnitude dependent space window and time window. The main shock data are then analyzed to obtain completeness period for different magnitudes evaluating their temporal homogeneity. Spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes, magnitude-depth histograms and other statistical analysis are performed to understand the distribution of seismic activity in this region.

Characterization of intermittency in renewal processes: Application to earthquakes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Akimoto, Takuma; Hasumi, Tomohiro; Aizawa, Yoji

2010-03-15

We construct a one-dimensional piecewise linear intermittent map from the interevent time distribution for a given renewal process. Then, we characterize intermittency by the asymptotic behavior near the indifferent fixed point in the piecewise linear intermittent map. Thus, we provide a framework to understand a unified characterization of intermittency and also present the Lyapunov exponent for renewal processes. This method is applied to the occurrence of earthquakes using the Japan Meteorological Agency and the National Earthquake Information Center catalog. By analyzing the return map of interevent times, we find that interevent times are not independent and identically distributed random variablesmore » but that the conditional probability distribution functions in the tail obey the Weibull distribution.« less

Seismological evidence for monsoon induced micro to moderate earthquake sequence beneath the 2011 Talala, Saurashtra earthquake, Gujarat, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, A. P.; Mishra, O. P.

2015-10-01

In order to understand the processes involved in the genesis of monsoon induced micro to moderate earthquakes after heavy rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon period beneath the 2011 Talala, Saurashtra earthquake (Mw 5.1) source zone, we assimilated 3-D microstructures of the sub-surface rock materials using a data set recorded by the Seismic Network of Gujarat (SeisNetG), India. Crack attributes in terms of crack density (ε), the saturation rate (ξ) and porosity parameter (ψ) were determined from the estimated 3-D sub-surface velocities (Vp, Vs) and Poisson's ratio (σ) structures of the area at varying depths. We distinctly imaged high-ε, high-ξ and low-ψ anomalies at shallow depths, extending up to 9-15 km. We infer that the existence of sub-surface fractured rock matrix connected to the surface from the source zone may have contributed to the changes in differential strain deep down to the crust due to the infiltration of rainwater, which in turn induced micro to moderate earthquake sequence beneath Talala source zone. Infiltration of rainwater during the Indian summer monsoon might have hastened the failure of the rock by perturbing the crustal volume strain of the causative source rock matrix associated with the changes in the seismic moment release beneath the surface. Analyses of crack attributes suggest that the fractured volume of the rock matrix with high porosity and lowered seismic strength beneath the source zone might have considerable influence on the style of fault displacements due to seismo-hydraulic fluid flows. Localized zone of micro-cracks diagnosed within the causative rock matrix connected to the water table and their association with shallow crustal faults might have acted as a conduit for infiltrating the precipitation down to the shallow crustal layers following the fault suction mechanism of pore pressure diffusion, triggering the monsoon induced earthquake sequence beneath the source zone.

Estimating Source Duration for Moderate and Large Earthquakes in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Wen-Yen; Hwang, Ruey-Der; Ho, Chien-Yin; Lin, Tzu-Wei

2017-04-01

Estimating Source Duration for Moderate and Large Earthquakes in Taiwan Wen-Yen Chang1, Ruey-Der Hwang2, Chien-Yin Ho3 and Tzu-Wei Lin4 1 Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Studies, National Dong Hwa University, Hualien, Taiwan, ROC 2Department of Geology, Chinese Culture University, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC 3Department of Earth Sciences, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan, ROC 4Seismology Center, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC ABSTRACT To construct a relationship between seismic moment (M0) and source duration (t) was important for seismic hazard in Taiwan, where earthquakes were quite active. In this study, we used a proposed inversion process using teleseismic P-waves to derive the M0-t relationship in the Taiwan region for the first time. Fifteen earthquakes with MW 5.5-7.1 and focal depths of less than 40 km were adopted. The inversion process could simultaneously determine source duration, focal depth, and pseudo radiation patterns of direct P-wave and two depth phases, by which M0 and fault plane solutions were estimated. Results showed that the estimated t ranging from 2.7 to 24.9 sec varied with one-third power of M0. That is, M0 is proportional to t**3, and then the relationship between both of them was M0=0.76*10**23(t)**3 , where M0 in dyne-cm and t in second. The M0-t relationship derived from this study was very close to those determined from global moderate to large earthquakes. For further understanding the validity in the derived relationship, through the constructed relationship of M0-, we inferred the source duration of the 1999 Chi-Chi (Taiwan) earthquake with M0=2-5*10**27 dyne-cm (corresponding to Mw = 7.5-7.7) to be approximately 29-40 sec, in agreement with many previous studies for source duration (28-42 sec).

Reduction of randomness in seismic noise as a short-term precursor to a volcanic eruption.

PubMed

Glynn, C C; Konstantinou, K I

2016-11-24

Ambient seismic noise is characterized by randomness incurred by the random position and strength of the noise sources as well as the heterogeneous properties of the medium through which it propagates. Here we use ambient noise data recorded prior to the 1996 Gjálp eruption in Iceland in order to show that a reduction of noise randomness can be a clear short-term precursor to volcanic activity. The eruption was preceded on 29 September 1996 by a Mw ~5.6 earthquake that occurred in the caldera rim of the Bárdarbunga volcano. A significant reduction of randomness started occurring 8 days before the earthquake and 10 days before the onset of the eruption. This reduction was observed even at stations more than 100 km away from the eruption site. Randomness increased to its previous levels 160 minutes after the Bárdarbunga earthquake, during which time aftershocks migrated from the Bárdarbunga caldera to a site near the Gjálp eruption fissure. We attribute this precursory reduction of randomness to the lack of higher frequencies (>1 Hz) in the noise wavefield caused by high absorption losses as hot magma ascended in the upper crust.

Reduction of randomness in seismic noise as a short-term precursor to a volcanic eruption

PubMed Central

Glynn, C. C.; Konstantinou, K. I.

2016-01-01

Ambient seismic noise is characterized by randomness incurred by the random position and strength of the noise sources as well as the heterogeneous properties of the medium through which it propagates. Here we use ambient noise data recorded prior to the 1996 Gjálp eruption in Iceland in order to show that a reduction of noise randomness can be a clear short-term precursor to volcanic activity. The eruption was preceded on 29 September 1996 by a Mw ~5.6 earthquake that occurred in the caldera rim of the Bárdarbunga volcano. A significant reduction of randomness started occurring 8 days before the earthquake and 10 days before the onset of the eruption. This reduction was observed even at stations more than 100 km away from the eruption site. Randomness increased to its previous levels 160 minutes after the Bárdarbunga earthquake, during which time aftershocks migrated from the Bárdarbunga caldera to a site near the Gjálp eruption fissure. We attribute this precursory reduction of randomness to the lack of higher frequencies (>1 Hz) in the noise wavefield caused by high absorption losses as hot magma ascended in the upper crust. PMID:27883050

Tsunami Source Modeling of the 2015 Volcanic Tsunami Earthquake near Torishima, South of Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandanbata, O.; Watada, S.; Satake, K.; Fukao, Y.; Sugioka, H.; Ito, A.; Shiobara, H.

2017-12-01

An abnormal earthquake occurred at a submarine volcano named Smith Caldera, near Torishima Island on the Izu-Bonin arc, on May 2, 2015. The earthquake, which hereafter we call "the 2015 Torishima earthquake," has a CLVD-type focal mechanism with a moderate seismic magnitude (M5.7) but generated larger tsunami waves with an observed maximum height of 50 cm at Hachijo Island [JMA, 2015], so that the earthquake can be regarded as a "tsunami earthquake." In the region, similar tsunami earthquakes were observed in 1984, 1996 and 2006, but their physical mechanisms are still not well understood. Tsunami waves generated by the 2015 earthquake were recorded by an array of ocean bottom pressure (OBP) gauges, 100 km northeastern away from the epicenter. The waves initiated with a small downward signal of 0.1 cm and reached peak amplitude (1.5-2.0 cm) of leading upward signals followed by continuous oscillations [Fukao et al., 2016]. For modeling its tsunami source, or sea-surface displacement, we perform tsunami waveform simulations, and compare synthetic and observed waveforms at the OBP gauges. The linear Boussinesq equations are adapted with the tsunami simulation code, JAGURS [Baba et al., 2015]. We first assume a Gaussian-shaped sea-surface uplift of 1.0 m with a source size comparable to Smith Caldera, 6-7 km in diameter. By shifting source location around the caldera, we found the uplift is probably located within the caldera rim, as suggested by Sandanbata et al. [2016]. However, synthetic waves show no initial downward signal that was observed at the OBP gauges. Hence, we add a ring of subsidence surrounding the main uplift, and examine sizes and amplitudes of the main uplift and the subsidence ring. As a result, the model of a main uplift of around 1.0 m with a radius of 4 km surrounded by a ring of small subsidence shows good agreement of synthetic and observed waveforms. The results yield two implications for the deformation process that help us to understanding the physical mechanism of the 2015 Torishima earthquake. First, the estimated large uplift within Smith Caldera implies the earthquake may be related to some volcanic activity of the caldera. Secondly, the modeled ring of subsidence surrounding the caldera suggests that the process may have included notable subsidence, at least on the northeastern side out of the caldera.

10 CFR 72.103 - Geological and seismological characteristics for applications for dry cask modes of storage on or...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

..., and that are not in areas of known seismic activity, a standardized design earthquake ground motion... motion, tectonic surface deformation, nontectonic deformation, earthquake recurrence rates, fault... of the Design Earthquake Ground Motion (DE). The DE for the site is characterized by both horizontal...

10 CFR 72.103 - Geological and seismological characteristics for applications for dry cask modes of storage on or...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

..., and that are not in areas of known seismic activity, a standardized design earthquake ground motion... motion, tectonic surface deformation, nontectonic deformation, earthquake recurrence rates, fault... of the Design Earthquake Ground Motion (DE). The DE for the site is characterized by both horizontal...

10 CFR 72.103 - Geological and seismological characteristics for applications for dry cask modes of storage on or...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

..., and that are not in areas of known seismic activity, a standardized design earthquake ground motion... motion, tectonic surface deformation, nontectonic deformation, earthquake recurrence rates, fault... of the Design Earthquake Ground Motion (DE). The DE for the site is characterized by both horizontal...

10 CFR 72.103 - Geological and seismological characteristics for applications for dry cask modes of storage on or...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

..., and that are not in areas of known seismic activity, a standardized design earthquake ground motion... motion, tectonic surface deformation, nontectonic deformation, earthquake recurrence rates, fault... of the Design Earthquake Ground Motion (DE). The DE for the site is characterized by both horizontal...

10 CFR 72.103 - Geological and seismological characteristics for applications for dry cask modes of storage on or...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

..., and that are not in areas of known seismic activity, a standardized design earthquake ground motion... motion, tectonic surface deformation, nontectonic deformation, earthquake recurrence rates, fault... of the Design Earthquake Ground Motion (DE). The DE for the site is characterized by both horizontal...

Continuous Fine-Fault Estimation with Real-Time GNSS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norford, B. B.; Melbourne, T. I.; Szeliga, W. M.; Santillan, V. M.; Scrivner, C.; Senko, J.; Larsen, D.

2017-12-01

Thousands of real-time telemetered GNSS stations operate throughout the circum-Pacific that may be used for rapid earthquake characterization and estimation of local tsunami excitation. We report on the development of a GNSS-based finite-fault inversion system that continuously estimates slip using real-time GNSS position streams from the Cascadia subduction zone and which is being expanded throughout the circum-Pacific. The system uses 1 Hz precise point position streams computed in the ITRF14 reference frame using clock and satellite orbit corrections from the IGS. The software is implemented as seven independent modules that filter time series using Kalman filters, trigger and estimate coseismic offsets, invert for slip using a non-negative least squares method developed by Lawson and Hanson (1974) and elastic half-space Green's Functions developed by Okada (1985), smooth the results temporally and spatially, and write the resulting streams of time-dependent slip to a RabbitMQ messaging server for use by downstream modules such as tsunami excitation modules. Additional fault models can be easily added to the system for other circum-Pacific subduction zones as additional real-time GNSS data become available. The system is currently being tested using data from well-recorded earthquakes including the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, the 2010 Maule earthquake, the 2015 Illapel earthquake, the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, the 2014 Iquique earthquake, the 2010 Mentawai earthquake, the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake, the 2016 Ecuador earthquake, the 2015 Gorkha earthquake, and others. Test data will be fed to the system and the resultant earthquake characterizations will be compared with published earthquake parameters. Seismic events will be assumed to occur on major faults, so, for example, only the San Andreas fault will be considered in Southern California, while the hundreds of other faults in the region will be ignored. Rake will be constrained along each subfault to be consistent with NUVEL-1 plate convergence directions. This software provides a basis for a GNSS-based rapid earthquake finite fault estimation system with global scope.

Three-dimensional ground-motion simulations of earthquakes for the Hanford area, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, Arthur; Thorne, Paul; Rohay, Alan

2014-01-01

This report describes the results of ground-motion simulations of earthquakes using three-dimensional (3D) and one-dimensional (1D) crustal models conducted for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) of the Hanford facility, Washington, under the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) guidelines. The first portion of this report demonstrates that the 3D seismic velocity model for the area produces synthetic seismograms with characteristics (spectral response values, duration) that better match those of the observed recordings of local earthquakes, compared to a 1D model with horizontal layers. The second part of the report compares the response spectra of synthetics from 3D and 1D models for moment magnitude (M) 6.6–6.8 earthquakes on three nearby faults and for a dipping plane wave source meant to approximate regional S-waves from a Cascadia great earthquake. The 1D models are specific to each site used for the PSHA. The use of the 3D model produces spectral response accelerations at periods of 0.5–2.0 seconds as much as a factor of 4.5 greater than those from the 1D models for the crustal fault sources. The spectral accelerations of the 3D synthetics for the Cascadia plane-wave source are as much as a factor of 9 greater than those from the 1D models. The differences between the spectral accelerations for the 3D and 1D models are most pronounced for sites with thicker supra-basalt sediments and for stations with earthquakes on the Rattlesnake Hills fault and for the Cascadia plane-wave source.

Large Subduction Earthquake Simulations using Finite Source Modeling and the Offshore-Onshore Ambient Seismic Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viens, L.; Miyake, H.; Koketsu, K.

2016-12-01

Large subduction earthquakes have the potential to generate strong long-period ground motions. The ambient seismic field, also called seismic noise, contains information about the elastic response of the Earth between two seismic stations that can be retrieved using seismic interferometry. The DONET1 network, which is composed of 20 offshore stations, has been deployed atop the Nankai subduction zone, Japan, to continuously monitor the seismotectonic activity in this highly seismically active region. The surrounding onshore area is covered by hundreds of seismic stations, which are operated the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), with a spacing of 15-20 km. We retrieve offshore-onshore Green's functions from the ambient seismic field using the deconvolution technique and use them to simulate the long-period ground motions of moderate subduction earthquakes that occurred at shallow depth. We extend the point source method, which is appropriate for moderate events, to finite source modeling to simulate the long-period ground motions of large Mw 7 class earthquake scenarios. The source models are constructed using scaling relations between moderate and large earthquakes to discretize the fault plane of the large hypothetical events into subfaults. Offshore-onshore Green's functions are spatially interpolated over the fault plane to obtain one Green's function for each subfault. The interpolated Green's functions are finally summed up considering different rupture velocities. Results show that this technique can provide additional information about earthquake ground motions that can be used with the existing physics-based simulations to improve seismic hazard assessment.

Crowd-Sourced Global Earthquake Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Owen, S. E.; Iannucci, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.

2014-12-01

Although earthquake early warning (EEW) has shown great promise for reducing loss of life and property, it has only been implemented in a few regions due, in part, to the prohibitive cost of building the required dense seismic and geodetic networks. However, many cars and consumer smartphones, tablets, laptops, and similar devices contain low-cost versions of the same sensors used for earthquake monitoring. If a workable EEW system could be implemented based on either crowd-sourced observations from consumer devices or very inexpensive networks of instruments built from consumer-quality sensors, EEW coverage could potentially be expanded worldwide. Controlled tests of several accelerometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers typically found in consumer devices show that, while they are significantly noisier than scientific-grade instruments, they are still accurate enough to capture displacements from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes. The accuracy of these sensors varies greatly depending on the type of data collected. Raw coarse acquisition (C/A) code GPS data are relatively noisy. These observations have a surface displacement detection threshold approaching ~1 m and would thus only be useful in large Mw 8+ earthquakes. However, incorporating either satellite-based differential corrections or using a Kalman filter to combine the raw GNSS data with low-cost acceleration data (such as from a smartphone) decreases the noise dramatically. These approaches allow detection thresholds as low as 5 cm, potentially enabling accurate warnings for earthquakes as small as Mw 6.5. Simulated performance tests show that, with data contributed from only a very small fraction of the population, a crowd-sourced EEW system would be capable of warning San Francisco and San Jose of a Mw 7 rupture on California's Hayward fault and could have accurately issued both earthquake and tsunami warnings for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.

The Ms = 8 tensional earthquake of 9 December 1950 of northern Chile and its relation to the seismic potential of the region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kausel, Edgar; Campos, Jaime

1992-08-01

The only known great ( Ms = 8) intermediate depth earthquake localized downdip of the main thrust zone of the Chilean subduction zone occurred landward of Antofagasta on 9 December 1950. In this paper we determine the source parameters and rupture process of this shock by modeling long-period body waves. The source mechanism corresponds to a downdip tensional intraplate event rupturing along a nearly vertical plane with a seismic moment of M0 = 1 × 10 28 dyn cm, of strike 350°, dip 88°, slip 270°, Mw = 7.9 and a stress drop of about 100 bar. The source time function consists of two subevents, the second being responsible for 70% of the total moment release. The unusually large magnitude ( Ms = 8) of this intermediate depth event suggests a rupture through the entire lithosphere. The spatial and temporal stress regime in this region is discussed. The simplest interpretation suggests that a large thrust earthquake should follow the 1950 tensional shock. Considering that the historical record of the region does not show large earthquakes, a 'slow' earthquake can be postulated as an alternative mechanism to unload the thrust zone. A weakly coupled subduction zone—within an otherwise strongly coupled region as evidenced by great earthquakes to the north and south—or the existence of creep are not consistent with the occurrence of a large tensional earthquake in the subducting lithosphere downdip of the thrust zone. The study of focal mechanisms of the outer rise earthquakes would add more information which would help us to infer the present state of stress in the thrust region.

Towards routine determination of focal mechanisms obtained from first motion P-wave arrivals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lentas, K.

2018-03-01

The Bulletin of the International Seismological Centre (ISC) contains information on earthquake mechanisms collected from many different sources including national and global agencies, resulting in a satisfactory coverage over a wide magnitude range (M ˜2-9). Nevertheless, there are still a vast number of earthquakes with no reported source mechanisms especially for magnitudes up to 5. This study investigates the possibility of calculating earthquake focal mechanisms in a routine and systematic way based on P-wave first motion polarities. Any available parametric data in the ISC database is being used, as well as auto-picked polarities from waveform data up to teleseismic epicentral distances (90°) for stations that are not reported to the ISC. The determination of the earthquake mechanisms is carried out with a modified version of the HASH algorithm that is compatible with a wide range of epicentral distances and takes into account the ellipsoids defined by the ISC location errors, and the Earth's structure uncertainties. Initially, benchmark tests for a set of ISC reviewed earthquakes (mb > 4.5) are carried out and the HASH mechanism classification scheme is used to define the mechanism quality. Focal mechanisms of quality A, B and C with an azimuthal gap up to 90° compare well to the benchmark mechanisms. Nevertheless, the majority of the obtained mechanisms fall into class D as a result of limited polarity data from stations in local/regional epicentral distances. Specifically, the computation of the minimum rotation angle between the obtained mechanisms and the benchmarks, reveals that 41 per cent of the examined earthquakes show rotation angles up to 35°. Finally, the current technique is applied to a small set of earthquakes from the reviewed ISC bulletin where 62 earthquakes, with no previously reported source mechanisms, are successfully obtained.

The 26 May 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake fault observed by seismic data and satellite data based surface features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anggraini, Ade; Sobiesiak, Monika; Walter, Thomas R.

2010-05-01

The Mw 6.3 May 26, 2006 Yogyakarta Earthquake caused severe damage and claimed thousands lives in the Yogyakarta Special Province and Klaten District of Central Java Province. The nearby Opak River fault was thought to be the source of this earthquake disaster. However, no significant surface movement was observed along the fault which could confirm that this fault was really the source of the earthquake. To investigate the earthquake source and to understand the earthquake mechanism, a rapid response team of the German Task Force for Earthquake, together with the Seismological Division of Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika and Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta, had installed a temporary seismic network of 12 short period seismometers. More than 3000 aftershocks were recorded during the 3-month campaign. Here we present the result of several hundred processed aftershocks. We used integrated software package GIANTPitsa to pick P and S phases manually and HYPO71 to determine the hypocenters. HypoDD software was used for hypocenters relocation to obtain high precision aftershock locations. Our aftershock distribution shows a system of lineaments in southwest-northeast direction, about 10 km east to Opak River fault, at 5-18 km depth. The b-value map from the aftershocks shows that the main lineaments have relatively low b-value at the middle part which suggests this part is still under stress. We also observe several aftershock clusters cutting these lineaments in nearly perpendicular direction. To verify the interpretation of our aftershocks analysis, we will overlay it on surface feature we delineate from satellite data. Hopefully our result will give significant contribution to understand the near surface fault systems around Yogyakarta Area in order to mitigate similar earthquake hazard in the future.

Broadband Analysis of the Energetics of Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the Sunda Forearc from 1987-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choy, G. L.; Kirby, S. H.; Hayes, G. P.

2013-12-01

In the eighteen years before the 2004 Sumatra Mw 9.1 earthquake, the forearc off Sumatra experienced only one large (Mw > 7.0) thrust event and experienced no earthquakes that generated measurable tsunami wave heights. In the subsequent eight years, twelve large thrust earthquakes occurred of which half generated measurable tsunamis. The number of broadband earthquakes (those events with Mw > 5.5 for which broadband teleseismic waveforms have sufficient signal to compute depths, focal mechanisms, moments and radiated energies) jumped six fold after 2004. The progression of tsunami earthquakes, as well as the profuse increase in broadband activity, strongly suggests regional stress adjustments following the Sumatra 2004 megathrust earthquake. Broadband source parameters, published routinely in the Source Parameters (SOPAR) database of the USGS's NEIC (National Earthquake Information Center), have provided the most accurate depths and locations of big earthquakes since the implementation of modern digital seismographic networks. Moreover, radiated energy and seismic moment (also found in SOPAR) are related to apparent stress which is a measure of fault maturity. In mapping apparent stress as a function of depth and focal mechanism, we find that about 12% of broadband thrust earthquakes in the subduction zone are unequivocally above or below the slab interface. Apparent stresses of upper-plate events are associated with failure on mature splay faults, some of which generated measurable tsunamis. One unconventional source for local wave heights was a large intraslab earthquake. High-energy upper-plate events, which are dominant in the Aceh Basin, are associated with immature faults, which may explain why the region was bypassed by significant rupture during the 2004 Sumatra earthquake. The majority of broadband earthquakes are non-randomly concentrated under the outer-arc high. They appear to delineate the periphery of the contiguous rupture zones of large earthquakes. A not uncommon occurrence at the outer-arc high is that of a large (Mw >7.0) earthquake followed by another event, also of large magnitude, in very close spatial (<50 km) proximity within a short time (days to months). The physical separation between these events provides constraints on the nature of barriers to rupture propagation. Some of the glaring disparities in seismic damage and tsunami excitation for earthquakes with the same magnitude can be attributed to differences between rupture properties landward and seaward of the outer-arc high. Although most of the studied broadband earthquakes occurred in the wake of the Sumatra 2004 megathrust event, they illuminate tectonic features that exert a strong influence on rupture growth and extent. The application of broadband analysis to other island arcs will complement current criteria for evaluating seismic and tsunami potential

Moment magnitude, local magnitude and corner frequency of small earthquakes nucleating along a low angle normal fault in the Upper Tiber valley (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munafo, I.; Malagnini, L.; Chiaraluce, L.; Valoroso, L.

2015-12-01

The relation between moment magnitude (MW) and local magnitude (ML) is still a debated issue (Bath, 1966, 1981; Ristau et al., 2003, 2005). Theoretical considerations and empirical observations show that, in the magnitude range between 3 and 5, MW and ML scale 1∶1. Whilst for smaller magnitudes this 1∶1 scaling breaks down (Bethmann et al. 2011). For accomplishing this task we analyzed the source parameters of about 1500 (30.000 waveforms) well-located small earthquakes occurred in the Upper Tiber Valley (Northern Apennines) in the range of -1.5≤ML≤3.8. In between these earthquakes there are 300 events repeatedly rupturing the same fault patch generally twice within a short time interval (less than 24 hours; Chiaraluce et al., 2007). We use high-resolution short period and broadband recordings acquired between 2010 and 2014 by 50 permanent seismic stations deployed to monitor the activity of a regional low angle normal fault (named Alto Tiberina fault, ATF) in the framework of The Alto Tiberina Near Fault Observatory project (TABOO; Chiaraluce et al., 2014). For this study the direct determination of MW for small earthquakes is essential but unfortunately the computation of MW for small earthquakes (MW < 3) is not a routine procedure in seismology. We apply the contributions of source, site, and crustal attenuation computed for this area in order to obtain precise spectral corrections to be used in the calculation of small earthquakes spectral plateaus. The aim of this analysis is to achieve moment magnitudes of small events through a procedure that uses our previously calibrated crustal attenuation parameters (geometrical spreading g(r), quality factor Q(f), and the residual parameter k) to correct for path effects. We determine the MW-ML relationships in two selected fault zones (on-fault and fault-hanging-wall) of the ATF by an orthogonal regression analysis providing a semi-automatic and robust procedure for moment magnitude determination within a region characterized by small to moderate seismicity. Finally, we present for a subset of data, corner frequency values computed by spectral analysis of S-waves, using data from three nearby shallow borehole stations sampled at 500 sps.

Evidences of Attenuation Zones Under Vesuvius Volcano By Local and Regional Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cubellis, E.; Marturano, A.

The seismicity at Vesuvius is characterised by events of moderate-energy concentrated in the caldera area. The foci of events are shallow, with depths less than 6 km under sea level. Periods of greater actvity were recorded in 1989, 1990, and, more recently, in 1995 and 1996. On October, 9, 1999 an earthquake (Ml=3.6) felt outside vesuvian area took place at Vesuvius-crater. It was not only the most energetic one since the last eruption of 1944 but also one of the most energetic among those occurring in the Vesuvian area since Roman times, as shown by an analysis of historical seismicity. Following the 9 october 1999 event, questionnaires were sent to all middle schools in the Vesuvian area and surrounding towns in order to define the extent to which the earthquake had been felt. The felt index was thus obtained, which represent the per- centage response to the question: Did you feel the earthquake? and used in later data processing. The felt index is a continuous parameter and this feature makes it possible, among other things, to relate it to ground motion parameters and overcome the prob- lem of the limits involved in using integer values of intensity. In particular, Q quality factor was determined by assuming direct proportionality between energy and felt in- dex. The values obtained were Q=60-90 and, Qa=100-150, in reasonable agreement with the P-wave quality factor of 70 to 100 reported below active volcanoes, consis- tent with high temperatures and generally associated with the presence of magmatic bodies. The near Southern Apennine seismogenetic zone, 50-100 km from Vesuvius, is characterised by prevalent normal faulting and large historical earthquakes. The last, the Irpinia earthquake of November 23, 1980 (Ms=6.9), developed on three fault sources at least, with apenninic trend (NW-SE), was characterised by elevated atten- uation zones in epicentral and external areas too. In particular, the macroseismic field showed a 25 km wide circular attenuation zone corresponding to the vesuvian area testifying the presence of a probable shallow large structure characterized by ductile beahaviour . The quality factor, obtained from local seismicity, and the extension of the circular attenuation zone, observed by regional earthquake, caracterise the attenu- ation source under Vesuvius volcano.